This is covering the spread. Here are your hosts, Jim Sonnis and Dr. Ed Fang. What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com where today we're getting you said for college football week number 10 and talking about the college football playoff rankings with Ben Stevens of Sports Grid getting us thoughts on both those things and what they mean for the betting market. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang. You can find his work over at thepowerrank.com. Ed, we talked a lot about Michigan, Michigan State last week and a game where Michigan seemed to outplay Michigan State. Michigan State got the big plays. They swung in their favor and they got the win there. What are your thoughts coming off of that big game? Yeah, it was a disappointing game for Michigan. I thought they played better. I think they're the better team slightly, but at the end of the day, the defense just couldn't get the stops they needed in the second half. I think it's that simple and I think we saw one of the best performances. We'll see out of Kade McNamara. I thought he had a really good game. I mean, obviously through the pick at the end, which wasn't helpful, but at some point in the first half, he was 10 for 12 and one of the incompletions was a drop. In general, we played pretty well. Michigan's defense couldn't do their part. It's interesting here in Ann Arbor because after the game, everyone wanted Harbaugh's head. Everyone wanted him fired again. It was like, they're 7-1, top 10 team, and you were all the people that didn't even want to watch any of the games this year at the beginning of the season. So I thought that was hilarious, but it does kind of point to a deeper... I think often coach and fan base can get at odds when someone's been there for too long or the expectations are just off. Think about Andy Reed in Philadelphia. So, yeah, so that's what's going on here in Ann Arbor. But as far as the game goes, yeah, I thought I thought it was pretty close. I think Michigan should have won a little biased in doing this job. I have kind of forsaken all team loyalties for the most part, except for Michigan. You can't avoid it here. And when Stanford's better, I would look for them too. Well, I think the interesting thing is we talked last week about how you said that Michigan was a team with a ceiling because of the quarterback play. And I want to have a Michigan State ceiling because I don't think anything they did in that game necessarily shifts that equation for them. Am I wrong in thinking that where we should still view Michigan State pretty similarly to what we did before? I think I was impressed with their offense. Thorne had a pretty good game. The receivers were very good. Walker is great.  I mean, they may be a really, really good elite offense. They clearly haven't shown that in some games, like against Indiana. Right. What they can do against a Purdue defense that my numbers really like. You know, I mean, we have, what, eight games on Thorne right now. That's not a ton. That's only slightly less than what we have on McNamara. So, yeah, I don't know. I mean, I haven't seen as much of Thorne, so I can't really, you know, kind of put the watching games perspective on it. But I don't think Michigan State's defense is that good. Yeah, I think we saw that. So, but, you know, there ain't no there, whatever, whatever, fourth in the college football playoff ranking. So they're they're clearly up there. Three teams and three teams in the Big Ten East are up there. And the playoff rankings, not all of them will end up in the college football playoff, obviously. So there's lots to be determined. And we'll be talking about that with Big Ten, Ben. Ben Stevens on for today to talk about week 10 across college football. We'll talk about those those rankings. We'll talk Michigan State Purdue, too. We'll get his thoughts on that game specifically and talk a lot about that. Ben, of course, is the host of the morning after over on Sports Grid. We'll talk about college football week 10 and the betting fallout of the college football playoff rankings later on today. Firstly, a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts. We, of course, have a bi-weekly podcast this time of year to talk college football and the NFL. So you can get both those by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast. And while you're there, leave us a rating and review as well. Now, before we talk to Ben about week 10, I'll go back to last week and recap what we had to Drew Martin and Drew had a very nice week on his bets. Covering the past. So last week, Drew Martin was on here to talk week nine in college football. He is on Twitter at Drew Martin bets. And of course, he is also on Sports Grid, also over on Wager talk. Drew had Auburn minus one when that game opened. He said that he would still bet it at two and a half. We discussed that game on Wednesday and it closed at three. So got some movement there from when he bet it and from when we discussed it. And they covered all those numbers. They got up in the first half. That crowd, they get banged up in that game. But the defense for Auburn absolutely clamped down in the second half. You talked about how the public had caught on to Ole Miss's offense and how the time to buy the past. We saw a lot of that in that game against Ole Miss. Auburn won the game 31 20 to get the win for Drew. Auburn's kind of interesting, Ed. I think we kind of know what some things are with this team, but they're playing better football now than they played. At least to me, it feels like for a while. Yeah, for sure.  So, yeah, they're LLSU this week, right? I think, yeah. So they are playing. We're talking about them with Ben, I believe. Yeah, they're playing Texas A&M this week, four and a half point dogs. Yeah, Texas A&M pretty feisty, too. So you have a pretty fun game. We'll see how that one goes down. Drew was on North Carolina at plus three and a half against Notre Dame. And the line closed there. Sam Howell made a seven point game with seven minutes left. Notre Dame had a 13 play drive that really killed the clock. UNC still had a chance to cover because they got the ball back down 10 with a minute 37 left and they got to the Notre Dame 22 for one final play. Howell completed the pass. They got down to the four yard line, couldn't quite score. So a very close one there where Drew almost got the cover. Couldn't quite get it across, but Notre Dame did cover either way. A close one for Drew there, but a loss for North Carolina. Finally, Drew said the dog was barking for Miami versus Pitt. You know, boy, worthy. He liked Miami plus nine and a half. It closed there. A Miami one outright. So it didn't really matter. They wanted 38-34 to get a super easy cover and the outright win. Nice week for Drew there. And I kind of hope that drew his his Twitter name is plus money, Martin. Kind of hoping he got the plus money on the Miami Money Line, too. He didn't mention that, but I'm kind of hoping he did. It was a good game, though, for Miami for sure. Your bet was on Ohio State minus 17 and a half against Penn State. It was 18 and a half on Wednesday and it did close there. Penn State kept that game close and they lost by nine. But Ohio State really dominated the yardage department. They averaged nine yards per rush or per pass versus 6.9 for Penn State. Ohio State was at 4.7 yards per rush versus 1.1 for Penn State. They just couldn't convert in the red zone. They Ohio State kicked four field goals. That kept this game closer than it would have been otherwise. And it seems like Ed, the field goes with the difference maker in terms of the spread in this game. Yeah, I think I think this was a mistake. I'm leaning towards this being a mistake on my part in the sense that, you know, my model reacted pretty aggressively to what had happened the week before Penn State's kind of shocking loss to Illinois. Ohio State beating I think that was Indiana. And, you know, it made before the previous week, Ohio State would have been about a 14 point favorite and that shot up all the way to about 23. And in my eagerness to bet a favorite, a team that is probably going to be in the playoff, a team that could be dominant, although we certainly haven't seen it on the defense side of the ball. We we did see it. We did see it on the defense side of the ball in the previous three games and actually four, but Akron's essentially a bye week. So with with Ohio State, I don't know, I but when you kind of looked at my numbers like that one game dropped Penn State down about 35th, which is just not where James Franklin team is ever going to be. OK. So I probably should have thought more into that. I think I think the spread 17 and a half, 18 and a half was probably fair. You know, and things like, you know, shifted right back to basically where they were before the week after the game. You know, Penn State actually had a better success rate than Ohio State. So, yeah, I think it was a mistake. I think that the so so my my aggressive model, the one that I use for this is more accurate at predicting spreads in games. And that's why I go with it. But I think it can overreact. I think there's specific situations in which it can overreact. And this might have been one of them. Obviously, there's no certainties in life. This is just me talking about it. And it's also interesting to think about this in terms of Northwestern, too, because, you know, this is this is a team that's traditionally somewhere between 25th and FPS average. 65th, right? Right. You know, are they really as bad as their success rate numbers look right now? Yeah, probably on offense, but but maybe not so much on defense.  Michigan did cover that. I did. Let's see what the Rutgers game is the other one. Yeah, Rutgers game was another one where you're like, well, you know, it's Northwestern really that bad. That program hasn't been below FPS average, right? Right. So. Anyways, these are things I'm kind of thinking about as I kind of adjust the new model. Think about, you know, when it can be wrong because it certainly can be. Well, I think that's one of the tough things, too, because that model came out of COVID effectively, right? You were trying to react to changes. So that's a new model for you like a year and a half old, correct? Yeah. But I do think it has the right idea because in college football, you have to react quickly. In NFL, you're probably. But I think that's kind of the key thing here is when it's a new model, it's tougher to have like the red flags in your brain of, OK, I like this model overall. Here are the spots to look out for the situations where it may be incorrect. You can't know that in a very small sample. And I think that's kind of the benefit here of like doing stuff live, doing stuff in time is you can be like, OK, now I have the red flag. I have that that mantra of the team has an outlier, so bad game. Maybe I want to dig more into it. And I think that having that red flag and gaining that is something that we're going to do throughout the season, especially with a new model like the one you've developed here. Yeah, I think that, yeah, you always want to learn and a good way to learn faster is to to lose money on it. Right. Exactly. Which is why I have massive red flags and my NASCAR model says to bet Joey Logano. It's just, you know, it's like, hey, maybe we should rethink this. So that's always helpful. And we can't get that without, you know, putting money on the line. So I think that's been a learning experience for sure, too. So we'll see. Are you thinking of integrating the two models together? Or is it more so you just want to have the red flag in your brain, like I said, with the new model and still lean more so on that one? I don't I don't integrate the models I could. Should probably do some back testing on it. One of the reasons I did bet Ohio State was that my model that only uses from data this year had Ohio State by almost 20. So there was there were other aspects to my analysis that pointed towards Ohio State.  Right. So. Well, good conversation to have because a lot of people, I'm sure with the the the spreading of legal betting, probably are developing their own numbers. And it's good to know to be aware of these things, you know, be aware of where your model may overestimate or underestimate teams. And I think that's a helpful conversation to have. So I'm sure we'll talk more about that as the season goes along as well. We're going to dive into college football week number 10 here in just one second. But first, the Breeders Cup is set to begin this weekend. And FanDuel is celebrating by giving you a chance to get in on the action with some enhanced odds. Starting this Thursday, new players to sign up on FanDuel Racing will get 20 to one odds on any horse to win a Del Mar race on Friday or Saturday. That is any horse to win in the favorites. The Breeders Cup will be here before you know it. So bet horse racing right on your phone with the super easy to use FanDuel Racing app. Now, $5 max bet download the FanDuel Racing app, visit racing.fanduel.com for more details, eligibility restrictions apply. Covering the present. Let's bring Ben Stevens back into covering the spread to talk some college football. Week number 10 to talk about the college football playoff rankings. Ben, welcome back. How are you doing today? Well, Jim, I've been better, mainly because Gary Varda and seeing that smile that he has each and every Tuesday night is back into my life and having him just announce what all of Cincinnati has done and proven to do for the College Football Playoff Committee angers me once again. So outside of the CFP selection committee, I'm happy to see both of you guys. I do not wish them very well, but I was quite upset on Tuesday night when the CFP rankings came out. So my mood has been up and down the last couple of days. But no lingering resentment, right? All good, right? Oh, no lingering resentment. I mean, listen, I'm a big 10 guy. You guys can see the big 10 flags right there. Gary Varda, the athletic director of the University of Iowa. They love the big 10. I mean, why would Wisconsin be ranked unless you really, truly love the big 10? Why do you keep Michigan at number seven ahead of Oklahoma? I don't even like OU, but the committee really loves the big 10 conference. So no lingering resentment for what he is doing to make my favorite sport in the world just seem meaningless throughout the regular season. No, no lingering resentment whatsoever. Well, hey, first of all, I think Wisconsin is still a pretty good football team. I know they got some questions in the quarterback. I thought that was one that, you know, putting a three loss team in there. I think that I think they're spot on there. But clearly, Cincinnati is the big story. And it just doesn't look like they're going to go up with the remainder of their schedule and what, you know, obviously with three big 10 teams in the top seven, not three, three teams are not going to end up in the in the top seven in the final ranking. So but it just doesn't look like Cincinnati has a path, right? No, it really doesn't because not only does Cincinnati need to worry about what's ahead of them like Ohio State and Michigan State, who will seemingly knock each other out like Oregon, who if they are a one loss Pac-12 champion will probably get a bid at least based on where things stand right now, according to the CFP selection committee, not one loss Alabama, but come on, it's coach Nick Saban. So we don't care about losses on the road as a 16 and a half point favorite. How could we ever care about that? So not only does Cincinnati need to worry about what's ahead of them, they also need to worry about what's behind them because you have a perfect nine and O Oklahoma team that if they went out and they are a big 12 conference champion, like they are favored to do on the Fandall Sportsbook at minus 200 as an odds on favorite to win the big 12 conference championship. You probably have Oklahoma leapfrogging you as well. So Cincinnati was put into a peculiar and disappointing position where they don't really control their own destiny. Was that always a thought? Would the Bearcats have an opportunity to really make their way and make their own path? Probably not the case, but with how the committee said it in the initial rankings, yes, it seems like Cincinnati is pretty Esso out of luck, if you know what I'm saying. Yeah, for sure. And it's kind of a bummer because I feel like things in one sense broke well for them in the fact that they they got the win over Notre Dame and Notre Dame isn't as good as their record suggests. So that's a break. And I don't know. I mean, the committee sent a clear message, you know, maybe that's better than putting in a third at this point and then like screw them later, right? So yeah, I don't know. I don't know. My final point about Cincinnati, which angers me because no group of five team has ever even been ranked in the top four. Of course, no group of five team has ever made the college football playoff in now our eighth year of using this asinine system. But if we are not going to give Cincinnati the chance, what does that say to the bearcast that everything we have asked you to do means absolutely nothing because for a lot of group of five teams, fair or unfair is a two year process. So Cincinnati is unbeaten last year in a weird COVID year keeps it tight with the number one team in the country right now in Georgia in a bowl game. And then the committee says that wasn't good enough. We need to see you schedule harder in a non-conference. So what do they do? They schedule a road test at a top 20 ranked Illinois team when the schedule was set. They schedule a road test on the road under the watchful eye of touchdown Jesus in South Bend, Indiana. And that's still not good enough, despite it being a double digit road win against the team that the committee then ranked 10th in the country. So what exactly can Cincinnati do at this point? It almost seems to feed. Yeah. I think that the rankings are frustrating for sure, but we can also draw some betting takeaways from them. And I think that's kind of the key thing is deciding, OK, what are they telling us? And what does that mean for the futures market? So, Ben, when you look at what you saw last night and then take a look at the futures market, anything standing out to you, any maybe values or teams you're now staying away from as a result of what we saw last night? What's very interesting to me, Jim, is that the betting market didn't move all that much, despite the fact that Cincinnati fell to number six. Their odds got a little bit longer, but they were in plus money after this weekend anyway. And up to plus 180 right now in the Fandall Sportsbook. What stood out first and foremost was that Oklahoma, who is currently ranked eighth in the country, according to the CFP selection committee, actually has better odds to make the college football playoff right now than both Alabama, who currently ranks number two, and Ohio State, who currently ranks number five in the CFP's first rankings of the year. They're minus 174. The Buckeyes and the Tide are both one minus 164. So when you have Oklahoma minus 174, I should say, that's better than where Ohio State and Alabama stand. And then, of course, Georgia at minus 2000. I think that's the only thing we all agree on, is that Georgia should be that much of a difference. Michigan State, from a perspective, is interesting. When you look at the Spartans really across the entire futures market, how the betting market see the Spartans, it has been the same case all year long. Michigan State checked in in the top four in the initial rankings, but they are plus 1040 to make the college football playoff on the Fandall Sportsbook right now. They are plus 1000, 10 to one to win the Big 10 Conference Championship, and they are still 80 to one to win the national championship as things currently stand. So I think even though the committee said, hey, congrats on being undefeated and a huge win against Michigan last week, there's really not that great of a shot, at least according to the betting market on the Michigan State's Spartans of making the final four when all is said and done. And do you agree with that? Do you agree with the sentiment where, despite the win, Michigan State's path is still pretty tough? I think so, because Michigan State next weekend on November 13th, we'll have a game against Ohio State and how Ohio State is playing right now. They need to get through the Buckeyes to even have a chance of winning the Big 10 East, to have a chance of winning the Conference Championship, to have a chance at the college football playoff. And although they are ranked ahead of Ohio State right now, if you have seen the Buckeyes play the last four weeks, it's not the same Ohio State team we saw lose to Oregon even at home in week number two. So it's sad to say almost that Ohio State is exactly where we expected them to be based on what we thought might be a different scenario in the Big 10 Conference, specifically the Big 10 East Division entering the year, at least in the early going of the year. But I think it makes sense because Michigan State still has so much to do to get past Ohio State and then end the year even trying to knock off Penn State as well. I mean, what do you think Michigan State's ceiling is? Well, I think right now it's probably a New Year's Sixth Bowl. It's probably a Rolls Bowl appearance if Ohio State makes a college football playoff because that could be their only regular season loss because I am a lot higher on Michigan State than the market might be. If you guys have seen my Twitter, dating back to a random Tuesday in the middle of May, I let out a Big 10 take. I said that Michigan State was going to win seven games in this 2021 college football season. It turns out I already hit the over there. Even I undersold a team, Jim, that had a team win total of four and a half and 20 a year.  No, they are one of three teams and all of FBS college football that has just a single loss against the spread. That's how good Michigan State has been. That's how profitable Michigan State has been. So I think right now it's a New Year's Sixth Bowl, which would be quite an accomplishment for Mel Tucker in his second year. But the reason I have been as high on MSU throughout the entirety of the season is because of the complete talent overhaul on that roster. We saw Mel Tucker undertake with the Spartans entering year number two, and it's a very different team. We are seeing that right now with Kenneth Walker, the third, who is a Heisman finalist in my mind is tied for the third shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy. So I think they're sealing as it currently stands and what with what is still out there for the Spartans is probably a New Year's Sixth Bowl. If they pulled off the incredible and upset Ohio State, there's a great path to the college football playoff. Tough to see that happen, though, because right now Ohio State minus 270 to win the big 10 over at Fanjul Sportsbook. You mentioned that Michigan State is 10 to one, nobody else outside of Ohio State shorter than 10 to one. Any lingering value for you in Ohio State with how they played or is there value elsewhere or just to market stay away for you right now? I mean, it's probably a stay away at the moment to see Ohio State have the best odds of any team in any conference and all of college football on Fanjul right now to win their conference championship is something we could have said probably back in early August. But after the start, Ohio State got on. It wasn't something we felt at the time. Now Ohio State minus 270 feels about right for where the Buckeyes are. So the thought process has always been Jim and it's funny because with how interesting this college football season has been with how many upsets we have seen and from what we saw on both of these teams in the early going to think that we are headed toward a Ohio State in Wisconsin Big 10 title game is not the craziest thought in the world. So my thought entering the year in terms of a value play in the futures market in the Big 10 was you need to pick the winner of the Big 10 West who will ultimately face off against Ohio State in the Big 10 championship game because you hope that the value you have right now is better than what the money line number would be for that Big 10 championship game where Ohio State's probably at least a two touchdown favorite. So right now that you see Wisconsin at 10 to one in Wisconsin still has some work to do to get past Minnesota who is 18 to one to win the Big 10 Conference championship. That would be my focus. Look at the teams in the Big 10 West and right now it seems like Wisconsin and Minnesota are destined to decide who wins the Big 10 West division in the battle for Paul Bunyan's acts the final week of the regular season. I think it will be Wisconsin based on where the badgers are trending based on how good that defense is ahead of Georgia in total defense in the country ahead of Georgia. Surprisingly so in terms of rushing defense Georgia still the best defense in the country. I will not mince words there but that's how good Wisconsin is that they rank ahead of them in those statistical categories. So I think it will probably be Wisconsin. So then at 10 to one you hope that's a better price than the money line value you might be able to hedge out on in the Big 10 championship game. But that's where I would look for value. All right. Well let's stay in the Big 10. Michigan State goes to Purdue. Michigan State is a road two and a half point favorite fandal sports book. Everywhere else I looked about a half an hour ago was at Michigan State at three. So you know Michigan State clearly deep Michigan last week. What are you thinking about this game. I think the reason it's at two and a half is again the public has never really had confidence in the betting market has never really had that full faith in Mel Tucker and the Spartans. So that's why it's at two and a half only for the number three team in the country. According to the CFP poll and a team that is a perfect unbeaten eight no and also the potential of a trap game let down spot following in that huge 16 point comeback victory at home against their bitter rival in Michigan. When I look at it from a perspective of actually breaking this game down though from a football perspective of what we will see on the field. It also isn't the greatest matchup for Michigan State because Purdue who loves to be that plucky thorn in every big 10 team side is a great throwing team. That is Jeff Brahms offense of philosophy throw the football at all costs and Purdue is the third best passing offense in the big 10 averaging over 307 passing yards per game. Michigan State by far the worst passing defense in the big 10 conference allowing more than 300 yards per game. And we saw even Michigan who loves to run the football runs the football at the seventh highest clip in all of college football look efficient in the passing game with Kate McNamara against the Spartan secondary this past Saturday even in a defeat. So I know that that is what Purdue is going to try to do. And defensively the boilers are pretty good up front but they do allow a lot of chunk yardage on the ground over 135 yards given up on the ground per game on average. And of course Kenneth Walker the third is on the other side for Michigan State. So that is where Michigan State is going to go to to try to win this football game. I still believe in Michigan State. The number is strange. It smells like a fish. I'm not entirely sure why it's so short outside of the overall narrative of it. But I still have belief in Michigan State. If you would have twisted my arm and yes this is revisionist history and I could say whatever I want right now I probably would have taken the points with MSU last weekend in East Lansing. But it was very hard to find an edge in that game. I look at this game a little bit differently where I still believe in Michigan State although we know what a House of Horrors West Lafayette can be for teams in early November when they have their site set on something more than the Purdue Boilermakers. So I still would lay the points with Michigan State on the road. I think it will be very close to that two and a half though. Michigan State ends up winning by a field goal. Cool. You've got the better number on the Fandall Sportsbook and that hook could certainly give it on Saturday. I think it's an interesting situation here because it sounds like the conviction level is kind of low. Is it are you convinced enough with Michigan State to actually like bet this one or is this more of a lean for you? This would be more of a lean. Jim, we talk all the time on the morning after about your power ratings and what it takes for you to say, all right, now this makes sense. It gives me the edge that I need here and then the numbers also back up how I feel about this game. This would be more the feel about this game. I'm not sure my power rating numbers of which I do not have them.  But if my numbers were going to be around it, I would probably make it a two and a half point game. So the edge probably isn't there. It's more a feel of having had that belief in Michigan State since the summer. And at this point, might as well write out the take. OK, so just a lean toward Michigan State here in this one versus Purdue. Let's move now to Auburn versus Texas A&M. Texas A&M four and a half point favorites total is forty nine and a half. And Auburn trending up maybe potentially Bonix played a bit better the past two weeks. I'm hesitant to be too effusive there. Auburn's got a couple big wins. We've also got a large sample on him not being this. So are you buying the recent uptick for Auburn's offense? Are you still skeptical? Well, I'm a little bit still skeptical because I need to see Bonix continue to do it. And that's something about Bonix. And that's maybe not fair from an overall assessment point. But we know the numbers, especially in big road games in Bonix's tenure playing quarterback for the Auburn Tigers. But this year, Auburn on the road, especially against the number has been pretty good. Two and one ATS covering by more than a touchdown on average. And since Bonix was benched in that Georgia State game, he has looked really good. He is playing with a confidence level we have yet to see. His head coach, Brian Harston said at the time, I hope it lights a fire under our young quarterback. And it certainly seems to have done that. That being said, he is now facing a defense in Texas A&M who ranks in the top five and scoring defense in the country, only giving up about just over 16 points per game to their opponent. Can he continue to put up these numbers we have seen in recent weeks against probably the best defense he will see this year maybe outside of Alabama in the Georgia team they saw a couple of weeks ago, where they only put up 10 points. So with that being said, and that game, by the way, also on the road against Georgia. So with that all being said, I'm not so sure I'm buying in on Auburn. But where I think the value might be here is on that overunder total because as I mentioned, A&M, one of the best defenses in the country, they can contain Auburn to around two scores. I don't know that Jimbo Fisher and the Aggies are going to need to do much more than that. In Zac Calzada, the quarterback who's had to step in for those Texas A&M Aggies has looked a lot better himself, but still not the most prolific offense there in College Station. So I could very much see this game being slightly low scoring, something like a 2014 A&M, a 2117 A&M, a more bitter grinded out game than potentially. So if my lean overall, the area I would look probably at the under of that total. And that is at 49 and a half right now. We're at Fangell Sportsbook for that A&M versus Auburn game. Let's move now to Oregon at Washington. A lot of weird stuff going on media this one this week. It's been fun as a consumer of the content. Oregon is a six and a half point favorite. Total is 51 and a half. Oregon, despite being top four in the playoff rankings, hasn't really played anybody. They've not played anyone outside of Ohio State, ranked top 40 by SB plus by Bill Connelly's number at ESPN. So they've convinced the playoff committee, but Ben, are you convinced with Oregon right now? OK, here we go. I understand the head to head matchup indicator that the committee used to rank Oregon over Ohio State. For this initial ranking, I can make my peace with that. Ohio State is not the same team they were week number two. Oregon won that game on the road as a 13 and a half point underdog without Cave on Tibido and some of their other best offenders. All good by me. Fine for these initial rankings. No, Jim, I am not convinced by the Oregon Ducks because they are just two and six against the spread. They have only won those two games when booked as an underdog that game against Ohio State in the Rose Bowl as virtually a pick them against UCLA a couple of Saturdays ago as a favorite of which they are this week on the road in Seattle. They are oh and six against the number not covering by more than a touchdown on average. So no, I am not convinced that Oregon is one of the top four teams in the country. And for all the arguments about Cincinnati tying this back into Gary Barthes loose rhetoric that Cincinnati didn't look all that great against Navy and Julane. Wait till he hears that Oregon lost to a Stanford team that has three wins. We'll wait for that for the next edition of our CFP ranking show. All that being said, no, I'm not convinced in the Ducks. I'm not necessarily convinced in the Ducks laying this number against Washington. But Washington has truly, truly been a struggle so far this year. I mean, when you look at what they did in the first couple of weeks, they've rallied back from that and they actually still have the third shortest odds to win the Pac 12. It's a far drop off. It's Oregon at even money. Then it's Utah plus 110. Then it's Washington at 12 to one because there might be a path if they knock off Oregon in this game that would decide the winner of the Pac 12 North. But I don't believe in this Washington team either who is also a very bad margin against the spread. And their last two wins in Pac 12 play being Stanford and Arizona by a single score an average of a six point margin of victory over those two teams in Arizona. As you guys will know, one of two teams in college football that doesn't have a win straight up this year. So I don't really believe in either of these two teams. It's not out yet where I would look to play this is I like Oregon's defense.  If I don't want to attack the game total overall or the spread inside of the favorite, I love team totals in college football. I think there are edges to be had. I would probably lean a huskies in total under for this game in the Pac 12. Excellent. And for Oregon, yeah, I don't really believe in this Oregon team, too. It looks like if they're going to fall out of the playoff contention, it's probably at Utah in a couple of weeks. I would think so. That could be a game that might decide Oregon's college football playoff state. But it also could be just a preview of what we are going to see in two more weekends after that in the Pac 12 title game, because Utah has been really, really good at home. And thankfully for Utah, that matchup will be in Salt Lake against Oregon. So I don't think Utah then all of a sudden shoots up the board to be a team you would have to put in contention for a college football playoff spot. It could derail what the Ducks want to do. But I think it's still probably if Oregon beats Washington this week, a preview of what we might see just a couple of weeks later in the Pac 12 title game. We'll see how that goes down. Yeah, Oregon six and a half point favorite right now, total 51 and a half. And once that team total for Washington is posted, check it out and see if you got value on the under with that one. Ben, anywhere else seen value for this week based on the odds of Fandall Sportsbook? I think something that is very interesting, Jim, is a game in the ACC where I'm not entirely sure why the unranked home team is favored this week against the number nine team in the country in Wake Forest because Wake Forest now has to prove what its medal is actually worth a perfect eight no straight up five no in ACC play, but just four and four against the spread. The next three weeks for the Demon Deeks will tell us all we need to know on if Wake Forest is a legitimate contender to be an unbeaten ACC champ and have a legitimate path to the college football playoff because they have North Carolina this week. And what actually an interesting note here is a non conference game. This game has been on the books for almost a decade and was before Wake Forest joined the ACC. So that is an interesting note for how this game is conceptualized just so everybody knows it does not exactly affect Wake Forest's chance of winning an ACC championship. I know, I'm surprised myself, but that is how this game is scheduled as of right now. Very weird things, but then Wake Forest has North Carolina this week on the road, they have NC State and then Clemson in the next two weekends following this test against the Tar Heels will know very quickly if Wake Forest is a legitimate contender for that ACC title. I look at this game. The total has been already steamed up to 76 and a half. Wake Forest has played some games that would leave nobody wanting more offense than what you have seen because there was a game where Wake Forest scored 70 points against a service academy and army who also scored 56 points in the over under total for that game was 51 and a half. So this being your 76 and a half right now against North Carolina who has played five or there eight games to the over would beg you to take it over right. Well, I look at this like if Wake Forest is going to win this game if they are going to just win outright as a dog probably will see an under coming to play. So if you want to take Wake Forest this weekend I would also lean the under or you could just take the money line price for a team that is booked as an underdog where they've only been booked as an underdog once before this year and they beat Virginia straight up 37 17 when they were a three and a half point dog against the who's a couple of weeks ago. Do you have a preference in those markets? Are you looking at the money line mostly? Do you want the points? Do you want the under? Lean for you between those three or are you interested in all of them? In this case right here because the spread is past what we would consider a key number of three in the NFL. I would probably actually lean money line because in college football, unlike the NFL, this is a quick force can't lose again if they want to win the ACC or they want to prove to the college football playoff committee that they need to be a part of the conversation. They can ill afford any losses. So it's not about covering two and a half points and boy we lost by a field goal or boy we lost by an extra point whatever it might be. They're going to try to win this football game. And when I think Wake Forest is the better team overall, I would probably lean money line because in my experience, the lines in college football are not as sharp as the NFL. It is much harder to beat a side in the NFL than it is in college football. And when it's that close for a game that we can expect to be close, I would probably lean money line if I was backing the Wake Forest side. All right. So Ben is on Wake Forest plus one 14 in the money line versus UNC for this weekend. That is Ben Stevens. Check him out on Twitter at Ben Scott Stevens and check out the morning after on the sports grid every weekday over on sports grid. Ben, we appreciate the time. Enjoy the football this weekend. Enjoy the six days you get off until you get mad at the football playoff rankings once again. We'll talk to you again soon. Thank you very much, Jim. I'm still stewing thinking about next Tuesday night. But thank you for having me, guys. Maybe not six days until the anger began. We'll just let it hang out until that time comes. Well, now you know what to expect, though, right? So you got like six days to meditate on it. And to be honest that I thought I knew what I expected this time to and I still got disappointed. I do the same thing every week.  Let it let it let it happen. Don't restrict this at all. It certainly does. It certainly does. Well, thank you very much. Talk to you soon. Covering the future. Big thank you once again to Ben Stevens for swinging by and breaking down a college football week number 10 and talking about the college football playoff. You can find Ben on Twitter at Ben Scott Stevens. Check him out on the morning after on sports grit every weekday. Let's move now into covering the future for this week. And Ed, we're recording on Wednesday, which means if you want to talk Thursday night football, we got to talk about it for today. So you're talking jets versus cold. So I'm fascinated to hear what you've got cooked up for this one. Yeah. So if you saw the Colts against Tennessee, they were tied late in the game. Carson Wentz drops back in his own end zone and he was under pressure and he decided to chuck the ball with his left hand to avoid the safety. And he threw it right to a Titans player for pick six. He ended up. They ended up going down and tying the game after that. So, you know, it goes to the offense. There was kind of a lucky pass and then there was a pass and there was there was a brain dead pass interference on the Titans safety, but they ended up tying up and then Wentz throws another awful interception triple covered it over time. And in Tennessee, one that came so clearly two bad decisions don't define a quarterback, but Wentz's offense just looks kind of terrible. Their last when I look at a success rate adjusted for opponents and Indianapolis past defense is not that much better. They ranked 31st. When you look at coverage grades on PFF, it looks like Xavier Rose and Kenny Moore, two of their cornerbacks have dropped off significantly from last year. So I really see this as a chance to fade the Colts with such a big number here. Obviously, we got to talk about the other side too, because the Jets don't have Zach Wilson. He got hurt a couple of weeks ago, but you know, before that New England game, the pass offense was 31st. They weren't particularly good. So Mike Wright has replaced Wilson. He led the Jets to that big win over Cincinnati. And they did have like a crazy 66% passing success rate significantly higher than the NFL average of about 45%. I mean, it's hard to make too much of obvious as a small sample size. I obviously don't think they're going to keep that insane rate up. But Zach Wilson wasn't really even playing at an NFL average level either. And we don't know what the drop off or if there is going to be a drop off to Mike White, it's not like we're trying to replace Aaron Rogers, right? So oh, and the other side of the ball, Jets pass defense. So they came into a lot of questions. They had a lot of questions earlier this season, throwing a lot of young guys in the secondary. But they're actually 15th. When I look at my adjusted success rate, they are getting pretty good contributions from two young cornerbacks in Bryce Hall, second year player, and Michael Carter, a fifth round rookie, courted PFF grades. So my model likes Indianapolis by about five. The data from the current season actually likes the Jets by a point, which tells you how much my model hates the Colts in terms of mostly because of the I mean, both sides of the ball. So I'm finding value about this Jets plus 10 and a half. All the sharp books actually had a slight lean towards the Jets as well. So yeah, I like this game.  But like the Colts play a defense, typically they may change this for Thursday, but it's conducive to the same type of stuff the Jets used to beat the Bengals, where they want to stop the deep pass and the Jets aren't going to throw deep with Mike White is his average of the target is like four, four point four, I think last week. So like it's possible that that formula wouldn't work against most teams, but it might work against this team. So I'm looking at my numbers right now. And if I combine my priors with twenty twenty one data and adjust for Mike White versus Zach Wilson, I the Jets projected to rank thirty first in passing efficiency. But I still see value on this game. My numbers of the Jets plus seven point or seven point six as the number and it's a 10 and a half. So it shows value there as well. And like that's with the Jets assuming that the passing offense regressive massively from where it was last week, which probably is honestly an indication that it agrees with you on Indianapolis. They got them 18th in passing offense right now. Overall defense, if I do for that, they are. I guess they're still eighth there, but what are you using for that? So it's a number of fires, metrics, combination of priors and what we've seen so far this year. They're 19th against the past. Why are they eighth overall? Anyway, I'll dig into that more later. But even with the the defense being graded positively there, it still shows value in the Jets. Not sure. Oh, it's because yeah, I guess their rush defense has been good. And I think that's factoring into it because the Jets tend to be pretty rush heavy. But I think that if I had to guess, that's probably the reason why. But yeah, 10 and a half. I have cold rush defense pretty good. Yeah, they're first based on the combo of priors and 20-21 data for me as well.  So I think that I'd agree with you on Jets plus 10 and a half. Great. So we'll see how that one goes. Again, that's Thursday night. We'll talk more NFL tomorrow. And I've got NFL right now as well, because I've been trying to avoid college football stuff. And if I look at my numbers, you know, I did see value in the Jets, due season value and other stuff. But like for the most part, I can talk myself out of more bets than I can talk myself into this week in terms of the sides. So as such, I'm probably going to lean more in the team total market versus the spread market this week. So that's going to force me to take the Vikings over 21 and a half against the Ravens after their team total. That's minus one 10 if Angel Sportsbook. I have a really hard time quitting this Vikings offense right now, even with their inconsistencies, with their weird bat down games. They're in fifth and schedule adjusted passing offense based on number fires metrics. They're facing Baltimore and Baltimore's had good flashes this year, specifically in that Chargers game. But they're not the jugger not defensively that they once were. They're 21st against the past. They're 18th overall defensively. I think the Vikings should be able to football here because the passing offense has been so good. My numbers are showing value on the spread right now because it does weight heavily towards passing offense. That's at six points right now. The spread is so I, you know, you are getting across four and three as far as key numbers go. But I just still worry about betting the spread when the Vikings defense just lost Neil Hunter. They don't have Patrick Peters and they're down some key players right now. So I struggled to get to the spread here. I think that's why I want to gravitate more towards the team total than the spread given that there is some risk tied to that Vikings defense. It gives me more avenues to hit more leeway.  And I just see value in betting betting on the Vikings right now. My favorite avenue here is attacking it via their team total over 21 and a half. That's minus 110. That's my first bet this week in Ed. I had another like, you know, not not like a red flag moment, but like I do think my numbers tend to be a little high in the Vikings. So I want to get a chance to check with you. What do you remember say about Minnesota's offense specifically? And is it wrong for me to be high on them right now? I mean, I think my numbers like Minnesota's offense when I look at adjusted success rate, they are long. They drop significantly. They're 14th. OK. They were in the top 10. So what? Yeah. So I mean, I still think they, you know, when you have those pieces that wide receiver, there is upside there. So I mean, my model actually has Minnesota with 24 points. So it would agree with what you are saying. OK. And I think that the reason that the adjusted success rate numbers probably dropped is because they faced Dallas last week and Dallas had been letting up a really high success rate, but they had been getting by with turnovers. And suddenly on Sunday night, that flipped. Like they suddenly like just they changed. I don't know if they changed something or what, but like suddenly the success rate against them was crazy low. Yeah. Well, I mean, it's just the randomness of the NFL. But I thought it was it. What did you think of Cooper Rush? I think he was fine. Like I think that he made good decisions, which is kind of all you can ask the backup like physically limited, but like he made good decisions. And like if I were looking for backup, I feel like that's kind of what I'd covet. And that's fine when you have those receivers, right? Right. So it's I've been thinking a lot about kind of how receivers and quarterbacks mesh and, you know, what what can what kind of quarterback like Josh Allen do before he had stuff on digs, right? Not as much clearly. And there's a synergy there. And I mean, Bengals with Barrow and Chase too, you know, that that offense might be kind of flukey given that they're feasting on big plays, but like they're generating big plays. And that's that's worth something at least two. Yeah, Jamar Chase, I think when I last look was getting like three yards per route. Run, which like usually with the top receivers are near two. So, you know, there's clear regression inevitable there. And I didn't check it after the last game, but it went down because they faced the Jets.  He had dropped in the draft because of medical stuff. But when he's healthy, he's playing well. So I think that it makes sense, you know, that that we'd see some regression in that game and it hit in a big way too. Yeah, where did he go to college? Virginia. Virginia. Yeah. And I think that like it might not all in medicals, but I think he had with some shoulder thing that really threw stuff off. And I know that when they took him, it was a that on upside, I think was kind of the thought process. Yeah. And it's working.  Right. Exactly. That stuff is volatile. So it is. The NFL is volatile. If you're the Jets and you have a league average past defense, better on upside every time. Doing a little dance, right? Yeah, absolutely. That's pretty good. With that personality, you'll take it. There have been a lot of issues this year, but like they've got a good defensive line sounds like the coaching stat defensively is doing some good stuff. So encouraging stuff, even though overall, you know, there's a long way to go for sure. That is all that we have here forward today on the college football edition of covering the spread. Big thank you once again to Ben Stevens of Sports Grid for swinging by and chatting about week number 10. You can find him on Twitter at Ben and Scott Stevens tomorrow. We're talking NFL week number nine with Aaron Dolan, a fan who will getting her thoughts on week number nine and her favorite bets of the week. Ed, what is going on for you this week over at the Powering? I had Edward E. Gross on football analytics show. It was a good conversation. Ask them about the A-hole that makes them write the seven nuggets every Saturday. That would be me. So yeah, he's got so many projects going on. We talked a lot about being on TV and LA. Talked about writing up those seven nuggets and how it's been a great opportunity for both of us to kind of explore other things. And so yeah, so that is on football analytics show. It might not be up by the time this goes up, but it'll be up on Wednesday. And then my free. Email newsletter looking at sports betting games that I bet seven nuggets Saturday. You can get that at the powering.com. All righty and find Ed on Twitter at the powering. I'm at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you once again to everyone for tuning in for today. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down NFL week number nine. This has been covering the spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network. What's up guys? This is Jordan Spieth. If you're watching this video, please like and subscribe to the FanDuel YouTube channel.


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CNO's Get Real, Get Better initiative calls for Navy leaders to embrace the red by being curious and taking pride in finding and fixing problems. Employing cognitive flexibility can help you on your path toward meeting this charge. Cognitive flexibility is the ability to switch between different ideas or adapt your thinking or behavior in response to environmental changes. This skill is particularly important for problem-solving and creativity. Being able to adapt your thinking and behavior has not only been shown to improve cognitive performance but also to prevent confirmation bias, improve social and emotional cognition skills and make you more resilient to negative life events. Only a cognitively flexible leader who can see challenges as opportunities will be humble and confident enough to acknowledge problems and take a data-driven approach to solving them with a positive mindset. How will you employ cognitive flexibility when the next challenge presents itself? Lead well this week.


Welcome to JSA TV and JSA podcast the newsroom for telecom and data center professionals. I'm Laura Nolan coming to you from ITW 2020. Joining me today is Chris Bailey chief commercial officer at Aqua Coms. Chris welcome to JSA TV. Well welcome Adiv. Thank you and the warm welcome. Chris for those who don't know please tell our viewers about Aqua Coms. Well Aqua Coms is a an independent carry-neutral provider of subsea capacity services. We operate currently in the Atlantic market and our services include 10 gig and 100 gig lit services as well as spectrum and fiber pair sales. We operate AEC1 today America Europe Connect one and that's been in operation for about four years now and that's our core current cable across the the Atlantic. We also operate a cable called CC1 which is a crossing across the Irish sea so connecting Ireland to the UK and the two of those cables then gives us connectivity from New York to Ireland to Dublin as a core city particularly with some of the hyperscalers and then on with connectivity over CC1 to the UK to London. We are headquartered in Dublin in Ireland. We operate quite diversely there was a team and we actually operate with about 20 people in our team that might not seem like a lot but we manage our business through having an experienced team of 20 managers who operate and lead the functions that we mostly therefore outsource. So a good example of that would be we have a managed outsource opportunity with our knock so we determine the rules and the principles and operations of how they work but the team itself is an outsourced function actually based in the US so that way it keeps us nimble agile keep our overhead costs linked to how we operate and you know on a sort of pay-as-you-go and therefore keeps us very much you know as a nimble organization. With regards to our brand as Aquacoms our key strap line is Focus which plays a play on words with fiber optic cables under the sea and it's very clear that that's all that we do. We focus on subsea cables and we don't look to operate threshold networks therefore we really do focus that as our specialist area. 2020 is a huge year for Aquacoms completing three subsea cable systems you mentioned just a few of them a few seconds ago America Europe connect Celtics connect North Sea connect so can you share any updates I know that you're talking about that the progress of those you recently just addressed that but to dig deeper how will those cable systems impact the much anticipated North Atlantic loop. So yes so the construction of the North Atlantic loop we have we have our existing AEC1 and CC1 today we are near completion on our second transatlantic cable which is AEC2 there's about a hundred kilometers of cable lay still required just north of Scotland to finish the trunk of the cable and so we're expecting that to be completed in the late summer this year. We are building two other cables one is North Sea Connect as you mentioned connecting from Denmark over to the UK and then we're also building a second cable across the Irish Sea so a second cable connecting Ireland in the UK a CC2 both of those new cables will be finished in Q4 this year the combination then of those two transatlantic cables they're two diverse cables both coming through to northern Europe with then regional cables to connect them back that creates this loop to provide diversity and resilience across some very well-secured networks connecting really the key data center hubs of that part of Europe so Ireland as I mentioned where many of the hyperscalers already located and increasingly so into the into Scandinavia into the Nordics where our cable lands into Denmark for the new transatlantic cable as well as therefore the North Sea Connect coming back towards the UK again Denmark Sweden and additionally now coming into play Norway very strong in their data center capabilities with a lot of renewable energy available there to support that industry so that's the development of it it should support therefore with the loop to give diverse routing options for everybody with new modern cable systems well and just in time for itw I understand you have even more growth news this time within the aquacombs team so can you tell us more about that Chris sure we've we've recently brought on three new individuals to the team a new vice president of sales Nick Barton we have a new head of solution engineering Niall O'Connor and a third member of the new team running our project management office called Andy Wordley the the interesting part of all of that is we have done all of the hiring including interviewing and onboarding during the current pandemic and whilst we will know some of the individuals before they during this whole process they have not actually met anybody in the company as an aquacombs employee they've been fully onboarded fully up to speed and working full speed right now despite the fact that they've never been to our office or met any of the team so so yeah so growth in the team but in certainly very different circumstances to normal great synergy in a virtual environment so that's great great news Chris so where can we learn more about aquacombs and follow the developments of the completion of those subsea cable systems we obviously have our website at aquacombs.com we are also quite visible during itw so we have participation at itw including some media coverage but also very much with virtual meetings to be to be held so please do get in contact look on to the delegate list and please reach out to us. You heard from Chris go check out aquacombs thank you Chris for joining us today and spending time with us. Well you're very welcome and thank you very much indeed for the opportunity. And thank you viewers for tuning in to JSA TV and JSA podcast happy networking.


Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. I think I'll get the ball rolling on the first non-farm payrolls webinar of 2022. Happy New Year to everybody. I hope you all had a restful Christmas break and happy New Year. Omicron restrictions notwithstanding. Today's payrolls report I think is going to be important for a number of reasons, which I'll go into in more detail in a minute. First and foremost, I need to get a few housekeeping slides out of the way. Disclaimers and what have you. But hopefully be able to shed some light on where the markets are likely to go over the course of the next few weeks and months against what so far this week has been a little bit of a divergent week for equity markets in general. I think one of the things that struck me and I only started back in the office on the Wednesday is it's been a week of two halves. European markets had a really decent start to the week on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday got off to a really decent start. But US markets have struggled, notably the NASDAQ. So this divergence was given a little bit of an added boost, if you like, by the Fed minutes on Wednesday. And to be honest, I'm really struggling as to why the markets reacted the way that they did because obviously the Fed met in December. They announced the tapering of their asset purchase program, which was broadly as expected. But this week, concerns about higher US rates have really, I think, impacted on the initially positive start that we saw on Monday and Tuesday. The S&P 500 hit a record high on Monday, since slipped back quite considerably. We've seen the DAX hit a record high this week. We've seen the FTSE 100 break above 7,400, goes higher 75-30. It's still up on the week is the FTSE 100 as is the DAX. However, US markets aren't. And given events on Wednesday and the markets reaction to the rather hawkish interpretation of the Fed minutes, you'd be forgiven for thinking that maybe today's payrolls numbers don't really matter that much. And that may be a little bit contentious. But to my mind, from the tone that we've seen from various Fed policy makers, there does appear to have been a shift in the thinking amongst Fed officials that they are now much more concerned about inflation and less concerned about the US labor market. And there's a good reason for that. Obviously, if you look at the US labor market and you look at what we're expecting today, if we look at the market calendar, which you can find under news and analysis, we can see that the unemployment rate is at 4.1% or 4.2% rather. It's expected to fall again today to 4.1%. If we look at the November payrolls number, that was a little bit disappointing. But that came in at 210,000. And may I remind you that we're expecting around about half a million, 500,000 new jobs to be added in November. Nonetheless, that didn't stop the Federal Reserve from accelerating the winding back of its taper program. The expectation was for 550,000 jobs in November. We came in at 210,000. The unemployment rate, as I said, fell back. The participation rate, that's I think really the big number, and it's not displayed on this particular calendar here. But before the pandemic struck, US participation, labor force participation was 63.7%. And that's the percentage of the US adult population that are in work or are available to work. So underneath the pension age, 63.7%. That is now down at 61.8%. So 1.9% were 1.9% lower in terms of available workforce for the US than we were pre-pandemic. Now there could be any number of reasons for that. 1.9% more people could have decided to retire. We've got over 10 million US vacancies, jobs that basically US employers cannot fill. There's an expectation that today's jobs report could well be a fairly decent one. The jobs report comes up to the period up to and including the middle of December. So it's around about 14th, 15th of December that this jobs report covers the period for. So it covers the entire period between Thanksgiving and Christmas where you would expect to see a big, big jump in temporary hiring. The head of the Thanksgiving and Christmas period, companies like Walmart, Amazon, FedEx, UPS or higher extra people to basically deal with increased online delivery capacity as well as increased turnover in terms of US retail sales. Now, obviously hospitality and leisure will be a part and parcel of that. And one of the reasons why the November payrolls number was so disappointing was hospitality and leisure didn't add any jobs whatsoever to the payrolls number. So the bigger question that I'm asking and was asking or posing in my report this morning was whether or not we see an awful lot of rebound in that. Because of a relaxation of Omicron restrictions and what have you. Now, does that mean that the January jobs report, which will cover the period up to and including the middle of January, will see a slowdown because of the fact that a number of US states imposed restrictions in the lead up to Christmas and after Christmas. So the jobs data at the moment is really flaky, which begs the question, can it be used as a reliable indicator as to what the Fed's intentions, the Federal Reserve's intentions are likely to be. And I would argue that unless it's a really, really bad number. It's not going to change the timetable that much when it comes to the first Fed rate hike. Now I know the markets are pricing in a possibility that we could see a move in March. And that's certainly a concern. But if we look at the US 10 year yield. It's basically jump back to the levels that it was in March last year, just before the March payrolls report or the February payrolls report. And it's also just below the 200 week moving average. Now there's no question that yields are going up. We can see that from this US 10 year chart here. But we're now coming into a very, very key level for US Treasury yields, especially on the 10 year. Now on a technical basis, I've got to ask myself one particular question. Is the first rate rise already priced into the market? I would argue that it is. The big question is whether it comes in March or whether it comes later than that. And today's payrolls report could play into that narrative. But I think it's going to be very, very difficult to argue that long term rates can go much above where they are now. When the Fed funds rate is of the upper bound of the Fed runs rate is 0.25%. You're talking a 1.8% 10 year rate. You're looking at a 10 year, a two year, which is above around about 0.85. And a five year, which is around about 1.45. So the market is pricing in an awful lot of Fed rate hikes. And I would suggest that maybe they're pricing in too many. They're already suggesting that we could see three this year and three next year. Now, three next year, three this year, four this year, I would argue is a bit of a stretch. Yes, inflation is high. And we've got US CPI next week. And I think that more than anything is likely to be a key arbiter of whether or not the Federal Reserve decides whether or not it's going to go in March rather than today's payrolls report. And if we look at today's, sorry, this week's ISM prices paid data for December. Manufacturing saw a big, big drop in inflationary pressures in December, while the services side of it saw prices stay fairly elevated. So what you're seeing is a mixed picture when it comes to inflationary pressures for say, for example, December and US CPI next week is expected to move above 7%. Just think about that for a minute. US CPI was 6.8% in November. It's expected to move to 7.1% in December, excluding food and energy. It's still around about 4.7, 4.8 and could go above 5. So I think next week CPI is probably going to be a bigger driver of yields than today's non-farm payrolls. That's not to say that the payrolls data isn't important, it is. But what I'm going to be looking, paying particular attention to, it's less about the headline number, which could be anything between 250 and 750. 750 is going to be very good and could mean that we're going to get a hike in March as opposed to June. But nonetheless, I think we're still going to get a hike. It's really just a question of when it comes and whether or not the Fed will be able to do any more going forward. And I think that feeds into a narrative more than anything else as to what can we expect the dollar to do when we're looking at terms of interest rate rise expectations. There's been pretty much broad consensus that Fed is going to hike rates sometime this year for around about the last three or four weeks. Since then the dollar's barely gone anywhere. If we look at this particular piece of price action here, we've actually been in a sideways consolidation with a fairly strong base in and around these lows here on the dollar index. But also declining peaks all the way through here. So we're range trading on the dollar index and I don't expect today's payrolls report to change that, which brings me neatly on to euro dollar, because for me, euro dollar is a very decent proxy for the dollar index. I mean, 57% of the dollar index is the euro anyway. So let's look at the key levels on euro dollar one 1385 is the big, big resistance level. So what's going to take us higher on euro dollar? Well, a weak payrolls report, but even if it does, I don't think we're going to go much above one 1385, which means the weaker side is the downside. So the downside on euro dollar, we're probably going to find this fairly decent support between one 1250 and one 1260 on a decent payrolls number. And even if we do move lower, it's going to take quite something significant to push us below the lows that we saw either in December or in November. For me, again, it's next week CPI data that I think is likely to move the markets more than today's payrolls report. So irrespective of how today's report comes out, you know, and I could be wrong about this completely. I don't think we're going to get much in the way of a breakout of the range that we've been in in euro dollar over the course of the past three or four weeks. It's just not the market driver that it used to be. But what it does do this, this webinar is it gives me a great opportunity to talk to you guys, certainly in terms of what the markets are doing at the moment. If I look at the FTSE 100, I'm still fairly bullish on the FTSE 100. Those of you who've been regular listeners of these these webinars will know that I thought the FTSE 100 was going to go to 7400. We're now above that. I think we can go higher. I think we can head towards 7600 7800. We have significantly underperformed over the course of the past couple of years. And I think there's potential for the FTSE 100 to play catch up. But only if we hold above 7400. We can see a clear delineation there clearly. Nice area of support earlier this week. Yesterday we bounced off 7400. We could drop as low as 7360. But overall, I'm still of the opinion that the FTSE still looks fairly positive. What I'm more concerned about is the S&P and the NASDAQ sideways consolidation here. The NASDAQ is a worry because it's only being held up by the big caps. I'm just going to basically draw your attention to this article on Bloomberg. The number of NASDAQ stocks down 50% or more is almost a record. 40% of the indexes firms have fallen by half from one year highs. So if 40% have fallen by 40% or more, what's holding the NASDAQ up? Well, it's Apple, it's Alphabet, it's Microsoft, it's Amazon. It's all the big caps that are holding the NASDAQ up. You only need to see two or three, four of those to start rolling over. And you'll see a big break of 15500 and potentially this trend line here. But for now, the trend still remains very much to the upside. But we do need to be aware that this could potentially be a double top in the making. It's only a double top if we break below the previous lows and this trend line. And then you take a measured move lower, which in this case is not very big because you've got 15500 minus 16660. A breakdown will take us back to around about 14,000 or so. So even then it's not a particularly big move. Nonetheless, we still remain above some key support levels on the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. So even if we get a disappointing number, the likelihood is we could actually go higher. If we get a really decent number, then you might get a little bit of nervousness because yields could go up and the NASDAQ could take a beating back to support. So a fairly decent number would be a number in the region or obviously above 700 or 800,000 ADP this week came in at 800,000. Keep an eye on the November revision as well because the November revision up from 210 could actually also help drive the market as well. And when we've had low numbers in the past, we've usually seen big upward revisions as well. But overall, as I say, I don't expect today's payrolls report to drive things too much unless we get an outlier number. So we get 900,000 on the upside, for example, which some people have been calling for, 900,000 to a million new jobs. President Biden is due to speak later today. Is that an indicator that today's report is a good report? Yeah, well, it's hard to say. When I tweeted about that, I was informed, reliably informed that he's spoken after every single jobs report since May. The difference being is that hasn't been flagged before by the news wise.  He already knows what the numbers are. So why has it been flagged even though it's never been flagged before, apart from one occasion back in May? Are we going to get a good number? I don't know. But there's no question that the US labor market is tight. And I'll also be paying particular attention to the wages numbers. They're around about 4.8% on an annual basis, average hourly earnings. They're expected to fall to 4.2% as a lot of cheaper roles get added back into the employment mix. So that will bring the average wages numbers down. But there's still well below the average level of inflation. So there's still an income squeeze going on. So to recap, before we get started, just quickly do cable, because cable has had a decent recovery as well. Decent resistance around about 136. So it's going to take something substantive to push through 136. Big resistance there. We're also starting to roll over on the oscillator. But there's also decent support in an around 134.20. So I'm not expecting us to break out of the range on the currency side of things in the short to medium term. In terms of gold, if we get a big push up in gold, push up in yields, then gold is likely to head back towards this trend line here that I've outlined. It's already got big resistance at 1834, 1830. So keep an eye on that. A decent number could push yields higher, push gold lower. And while we finally get ready to release the numbers, let me just quickly recap as to what we're expecting. 450 is the consensus number on payrolls. And we have got the Canadian numbers out, but we don't have the US numbers yet. Average earnings, that's quite a decent number, 4.7. That's better than expected. So markets will react to that. That's fairly decent number, 199. That's a really disappointing number. So markets are reacting to that, the disappointing headline number and the weak revision as well, 249 on the revision. So once again, we've seen a divergence between the ADP report earlier this week. And the non-farm payrolls number 210 to 249 on the revision as well. So it's not particularly great number on the headline number, but if we look at the unemployment rate, that's 3.9%. So that's again a fairly decent number. And the labor force participation rate has moved up to 61.9. So once again, we've disappointed on the headline, but every other metric is fairly solid. So the dollar is weakening on the back of that, and I'm not sure it should be. I think now we're starting to get a little bit of a bid coming back into the dollar. As a consequence, as the market suddenly digested the fact that the unemployment rates dropped to 3.9%, wages are actually higher. The previous month has been revised upwards, and the participation rate is coming at 61.9. So while the headline number is disappointed, everything else is pretty decent. And I would argue it's fairly dollar-positive, not dollar-negative. And that's certainly been borne out by the way that Eurodollar has reacted. And we should now see a quick move, as you can see here, in the five-minute chart on Eurodollar. The market's reacted to the really disappointing headline number and then got absolutely battered, because the rest of the report is fairly positive. Unemployment, wages, participation rate. Does that mean that we're going to get a significant move up or down over the course of the next few hours? No. The unemployment rate, this payrolls report is not market-moving enough for me. The focus now shifts to next week's CPI numbers. Looking at what the bond market is doing, the bond yield has gone up to 174.08. Let me just bring that up for you. So we've seen the US 10-year. Let me just change that to a daily chart. There we go. So we're retesting the highs of yesterday. We look at a slightly shorter term. There we go. Let's just make it one day. So you saw the initial move lower there in yields with the headline number, and now we're back higher again because of the decent wages numbers and the fall in the unemployment rate. So typical set of numbers, some good, some bad. I'm going to have to sort of dig around in the guts of the numbers to really, I think, get a really decent look under the bonnet. It's something that I don't really have the time to do while I'm talking to you guys. But as we digest those numbers and we look ahead to next week's CPR report, what it doesn't do is change the overall narrative of when the next, when the first rate hike is coming. It is coming, but I don't think these numbers are of sufficient impetus to suggest that it's going to come in March, not after that headline number. And that's the problem, I think, at the moment with the headline payrolls report. You've got fairly weak jobs growth, but you've got the unemployment rate falling and you've got the participation rate rising. So there's still plenty of scope to fill those overall positions. Does anyone have any questions on any of the numbers thus far? So I'm looking at the moment. I've got questions on Kiwi and Dolla Cad. Okay. So we're looking at Kiwi. Let's get a shot at that. So we've got fairly decent support in and around these series of lows through here. So fairly decent support at 6702 on the Kiwi. That number could have prompted retest of the lows, but I think it's going to take something really substantive to basically drive the Kiwi much lower. We appear to be in a bit of a range when it comes to the Kiwi. Is there potential for a decline back to this support level here? Absolutely there is. But I think it's going to take something substantive to move us much below that in terms of the Kiwi. In terms of the CAD. So look at the Canadian numbers because they were released first. The unemployment rate in Canada has fallen to 5.9%. You've got full-time employment rising by more than expected. So that's very positive Canada-wise. And you've got fairly decent support in and around this level here. And there's potential here for a little bit of an ahead in the shoulders forming on the daily charts. So if I draw a little line through here, as long as we hold below 128 on dollar CAD, then I think there's potential for us to retest this line here and retest the trend line from the lows through here. This is your left shoulder here. This is your right shoulder here. So you've got a potential right shoulder formation here. So on CAD, if we see a move back above 128, it's certainly worth looking at a short position with a stop loss above for a move back to this line through here. Certainly we are starting to see a little bit of a rebound in the price from these lows through here. But one thing this candle has shown me here is that there is significant selling pressure around about 128.13. There are thereabouts. Because that's where we saw <IP_ADDRESS>. Then you got 128.30 there. So there's fairly decent resistance through those peaks. We just bring that indicator back because for some reason it disappeared. There we go. So dollar CAD, I'll be looking on this particular chart to certainly move back towards 128 for a move back towards this potential neckline through here on the CAD. So hopefully that gives you something. So I think non-farm reports tonight will favor a move higher for the Hang Seng Index over the Dow or the S&P. The problem with the Hang Seng at the moment is it's not really being driven much by what other markets are doing. If you look at what the Hang Seng did last year compared to other equity markets, it went in completely the opposite direction. There however does appear to be a little bit of a base forming in the Hang Seng. If we look at these two bases through here, you've got fairly decent support around about 22,700. So if we can get break through 23,600, we could well see a nice sharp move higher towards 24,500 in this series of peaks through here. The market does look as if it's ready for a bit of a rebound. The big question is whether or not we'll be able to get that. Certainly the dynamic suggests that at some point we should be able to get some form of rebound. Let me see if I can extend this support line backwards to see whether or not it comes in anywhere else. If we look at that, we've got a fairly decent area of support all the way through here. So I would suggest that maybe we are near a short-term base on the Hang Seng. Now of course, whether or not that correlates with a move higher in the Dow and the S&P is another matter because the two haven't been correlated at all over the course of the past 12 months. So if I was looking to go long an index on the basis of a risk reward, then yeah, absolutely the Hang Seng has a much better risk reward for going long than the S&P or the Dow because the S&P and Dow both within touching distance of their current record highs. It's almost a no-brainer. But the big question is obviously comes about with respect to the factors that have driven the Hang Seng Lower and have continued to drive the Hang Seng Lower over the course of the past few months. Will they abate? Will they diminish? At some point you've got to say to yourself how much lower can it go? So on the technicals, certainly I would argue that there's potential for the Hang Seng to go higher. NASDAQ. There we go. I talked about that a little bit earlier. I think we're going to get a retest of these loads through here. So yeah, basically, decent payrolls report, decent levels of inflation, wage inflation would put up with pressure on the yields and would make the NASDAQ an awful lot more vulnerable. As I said, am I summing up just before the numbers? This 15,500 level is the key level on the NASDAQ. If we get a break of that support low, then we could well see further declines. The big question is whether we'll get that today or whether we'll get it in the wake of the CPI numbers which are due out on the 12th of January next Wednesday. That for me, I think could be a key determinant of whether or not the NASDAQ starts to kick lower. But as I said, the only thing that's holding the NASDAQ up at the moment is those mega cap stocks, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Alphabet. Facebook. Those big caps. So that's important to bear in mind. So maybe we should look at Apple for clues as to what the NASDAQ might want to do. So let's look at it. So that's Apple at the moment. Big support on that particular chart is going to be around about 167.50 which is the lows of the 20th of December. Let me draw a horizontal line through that. So 167.50. So we're seeing higher yields that is likely to put increasing pressure on the NASDAQ. The US5 year yield has touched 1.5% just now which is the highest since January 2020. So the big question is how sustainable these higher yields are and if they do prove to be sustainable then it's companies like Apple and Alphabet that you need to be keeping an eye out for. So again looking at this one here and again we've got the 200 day moving average so that's going to be a fairly decent area of support as well as these lows through here. Sometimes when you're looking at the NASDAQ it's useful to look at the proxies for the NASDAQ given the fact that an awful lot of the smaller companies have already fallen quite sharply as it is. So you've got a bit of a bipolar index in terms of the NASDAQ composite, four in every 10 companies fallen by more than 50% from the 52 week highs. So it makes reading US markets very very difficult. If you strip out the big caps how well of US markets actually done. So it's worth bearing that in mind. Outlook on the dollar overall in the medium term in answer to your question Alan is pretty much what I said about euro-dollar. I think it's a range trait. Obviously you're going to see the dollar try and push higher and certainly yields are pushing higher, but the dollar actually isn't the following suit. You're seeing that in terms of this euro-dollar chart here. We're on the lows of the day for today, the euro-dollar below 113 and we ran out of steam very very quickly when we went above 113.20. My bias is still very much by the dip on the dollar sell the rally on euro-dollar by the dip dollar yen. My view on dollar yen is probably a big driver of where we potentially could go on the US dollar more broadly. The fact that we've broken above these highs here in November suggests that we can potentially revisit these levels all the way back here in 2017 because now that we've broken above these peaks all the way back here if I change that to a weekly chart then there's nothing to really stop us going back to 117.50 now that we've broken above 114.70 and dollar yen is a very technical currency pair so I would expect dollar yen as long as we can hold above 114.70 to go back to these peaks through here so that would suggest to me that we are very much by the dips on the dollar and the dollar can go higher but it could take a couple of weeks or a few weeks for that to unfold but on a technical basis if you use dollar yen as a proxy for the dollar then you've got to think that the dollar should go higher any other questions ladies and gents anything that I haven't covered you'd like me to cover looking at gold again just recapping that as you can see on gold what we're seeing on gold is not being reflected on gold when it comes to US yields are going up but gold should be going down and it's not so I would suggest what you're seeing on yields at the moment is mostly noise ahead of next week's CPI numbers thoughts on Aussie dollar similar to really Kiwi you've got potential to head back to these lows through here we saw a big down move on the Aussie dollar which found a basis 69.90 we've since recovered all the way back to 72.70 but again we're drifting back down again and could well find decent support in and around 71 so again yeah it's dollar strength more than anything else quickly large cap profitable companies will be that affected by interest rates going up ordinarily they shouldn't be but it's all about their valuation and higher rates potentially eat into economic growth which then eat into average hourly earnings as does inflation therefore the ability of those companies to generate higher profits is impacted by higher rates so if you look at say for example the average dividend yield of a NASDAQ company which is around about 0.7 0.6 and then you look at a two year bond yield which is 0.8 0.9 percent the it's easier to generate a return on a US government bond say a company that doesn't pay a dividend but is a high growth company because potentially they'll find it much more difficult to generate earnings in an economy that's slowing so that's generally why you'll find that profitable companies will be affected by higher rates because higher rates can affect their profitability and their ability to generate higher returns so hopefully that makes sense Alan I'm sure you'll let me know if it doesn't okay Bitcoin and Ethereum and Brent crude short and long term okay let's start with Bitcoin we're at a big big level or approaching a big big level in Bitcoin here it is this is one I prepared earlier I've got 41,000 there or there abouts we're just below that 40,000 area this low point here as a key support for Bitcoin so we can see further weakness in Bitcoin in the short to medium term but I would only get fundamentally bearish on it if we break below the lows that we saw back in September which is 39,600 but also coincides with this trend line down here so with Bitcoin I can see the potential for further weakness but I would only start to get predominantly bearish on it if we take out this trend line through here Ethereum where are you there you are that has broken its trend line but we've got another one through here so let's redraw so that one's gone we can dispose of that we are now on the 200 day moving average for Ethereum if we close below the 200 day moving average then potentially we can head back towards these are September lows that we saw that match the September lows we saw in Bitcoin so it's not an exact science but you've got to think there is going to be a certain degree of correlation between the two so I would certainly keep an eye out for Ethereum if we break below these two levels here but again there is potential for further weakness in both Bitcoin and Ethereum let's move on to Brent Crude Brent Crude this is the big level for me on Brent it's trend line from the peaks in October which are around about 83-83-50 we've seen a fairly decent start to the year we've broken above 79-69-79-70 but overall you've got to think that at these sorts of levels there has got to be an element of concerns about demand destruction and let's not forget the reason we're up here this week is because of concerns that Kazakh production might be disrupted well thus far it hasn't been and it does generate 1.6 million barrels a day so at the moment those supplies are still flowing so at the moment Crude Oil is higher on the premise that supply could see disruption at the moment we haven't seen that so it's going to be very difficult to crack that 83-50 area and as such I would expect at some point to come back down but obviously that will also depend on the data that we see next week we've also got China trade numbers next week and they could be market moving as well and they are due on the 14th and it'll be very interesting to see what the import numbers look like because in the November numbers China import numbers were pretty decent coal imports showed a big rebound and there was also a high demand for copper as well so has China seen a big pickup in oil demand in December as they took advantage of the lower prices caused by the release of their SPR reserves along with the US so I'll be keeping an eye on those next week DAX indeed there we go DAX looks fairly similar we've got a potential double top here but we've got really solid support all the way down through 15,000 again I would expect to see a little bit of weakness here potentially come back to 15,600 in the short to medium term it does look a little bit frothy and around 16,000 I mean in the longer term I'm still fairly constructive on European equities simply on a valuation basis they are cheaper than US stocks and as such should be much more compelling and let's face it the ECB is not going to be raising rates anytime soon my only concern about the DAX is that an awful lot of the companies in the DAX have significant exposure to China so if we see the slowdown in Chinese economic growth because of their zero COVID strategy that's likely to affect profit potential for DAX companies because they export an awful lot of goods to China nonetheless 15,900 is looking as if it's a little bit of support but anywhere near 16,200 has proven to be a little bit toppy and as such on a technical basis you've got to be a little bit careful about being overly long at current levels nonetheless I would still expect the DAX to finish this week higher if we look at a weekly chart we're still on course to finish the week higher but I do have concerns that we've struggled to really reverse the losses that we saw in November and we've only just about managed to do that and now we're back near the week so there are certainly concerns about a lack of momentum when it comes to further upside and if you recall last January stock markets actually finished the month lower before going on an upward move so January can be a little bit choppy but looking at this chart I'd be very cautious about being aggressively along the DAX at this point in time okay well thank you very much ladies and gents for all your attendance today as I say in around about 24, 48 hours you'll be getting a follow up asking you for feedback about the presentation I would be enormously grateful if you could send me whatever feedback you feel is appropriate otherwise I'd like to thank you very much for your attendance today I'll be posting this on YouTube later today if any of you want to listen to it back otherwise I'd like to wish you all a very pleasant weekend and speak to you all same time, same place this time next month, thanks very much for listening