Good evening and welcome to 2019's final episode of Tisgy Sauer I'm Michael Walker, and I am joined this evening by Navarra Media co-founder Aaron Bostani. Good evening, Mike. How you doing? I'm doing okay. How has your 2019 been? Well, it's not just the end of the year. It's also the end of a decade and I do feel like the 2010s have been an incredibly weird and ultimately damaging decade to the human species, not just myself Damaging in what way? Because of the amount of carbon that was emitted or? Well, there is that there is that I think about 25% of all the co2 Humanities ever emitted has been since I think 2008 We of course had you know the flourishing of the new digital economy in the last 10 years Smartphones are only really a thing in the 2010s Social networks not just being a thing because they existed before 2010 but Becoming really imbricated in our everyday life. I think that's increasingly having its downsides We can talk about that over the course of the show, I guess fake news politics political polarization Identity politics in the bad sense of the word like white nationalism white supremacy, etc And I think yeah, the 2010s were a weird decade and I think we'll look back at them as a weird decade I mean, yeah, we know I was thinking sure. We're not gonna do a review of the decade. We're not doing that We're also not doing a review of the year. We're just doing Very much today's politics and what's gonna be going on mainly in 2020. So this is more of a look ahead Yeah, then I look backwards. We did last week three different shows doing a post-mortem of The results in in the recent general election, which I think will you know be the lasting memory for many of us of this year but today we're gonna talk about what next for the Labour Party who will be the Labour Party's next leader who members will choose and What kind of government they will be opposing so what will Boris Johnson's majority government look like in 2020 and we're gonna frame the conversation basically around the various candidates who have already declared for the Labour leadership Many of them have already you know whilst introducing their candidacies brought with them various issues and talking points and Analyses of what went wrong and how the Labour Party should change in the future and we're gonna start with Emily Fornbury And we're gonna start with Emily Fornbury because she announced her candidacy It's only her and Clive Lewis who have officially come forward and said they want to be the next leader of the Labour Party and she said In a somewhat I suppose unusual pitch for the leadership of the party that her standout Promise would be that if it all goes horribly wrong she'll resign So we are gonna go to a quote now from her article in the mirror If I am elected leader and if there is any stage where I know and the polls and my colleagues tell me that I can't persuade People and I can't get us back into power then I vow to do what I've always done throughout my life I will be loyal to the party. I love so I will stand down and give one of my brilliant colleagues the chance to win instead She goes on to site Andrew little who is the leader of New Zealand's Labour Party who in 2017 stood aside At the start of a general election. He was fairly unpopular. It didn't look like they could win He was replaced by Deschinda Ardern who went on to become Prime Minister two months later So that's the example that Emily Fornbury is saying she is she is following What do you think about this pitch Aaron does she actually give any specific numbers like how unpopular would she have to be to stand down? No, she didn't give she didn't give what the specific criteria would be right And I think it would be a mistake to do that to be honest because if you said You know if I get to minus 30 in the approval ratings then I would stand down and that would become a story in itself, right? But all politicians every time you're on minus 28, then you'd have a lot of headlines in the time They're gonna have to stand down ratings these days Like if you look at the last general election Johnson Swenson Corbyn all had negative ratings So what they should all resign for who all there's various extensive negative ratings, right? Well, that's what I mean. So you would need some kind of quantifications. Yeah, but I mean I suppose that the point is if it looks like you have been Mortally wounded then will you stand aside? And I suppose I mean the reason it's not our coincidence She's pointing this out after this general election because many people's analysis of why labor lost will be yet Obviously Brexit and a manifesto which potentially put too many things in that people didn't find credible But it was also that they had an unpopular leader So in September Jeremy Corbyn was on minus 60 in terms of approval ratings That meant that 75 percent of people disapproved of his leadership and only 15 percent approved So, you know, that's the minus 40 ahead of 2017 and he ended up with plus 17 in July 2017 Yeah, suppose which is why he could stay on with those numbers So minus 60 was a record low for an opposition leader But the reason why he could carry on as leader of the opposition under, you know None of us called for him to resign was that people had seen this miracle in 2017 where there had been unprecedented increase in in the well or decrease in the unpopularity of a leader over a general election period So in 2017 Corbyn went from I think minus 40 to about minus six Before the general election after general election. He went into positives for a short period But Corbyn this time around started at about minus 60 and he never rose above I think minus 44 Well some in the it's lost more we talked about some of you I mean a few places like BMG for instance Who would you rather have as prime minister Boris Johnson the last one they asked Boris Johnson 39% Corbyn 32% But I mean look to be pulling behind Boris Johnson doesn't say very much But I do think, you know, we're living in an era where I think probably all politicians are gonna have negative poll ratings And that's part about the dissolution of the political consensus It's partly to do with social media polarizing public opinion look at the US presidential race 2016, you know Donald Trump was the most disliked candidate for president ever The only person that was worse than him was Hillary Clinton and you know, he still defied all the odds He's still you know, it was it's still gonna go down. We just talked about the last 10 years in review It's gonna go down as alongside Brexit is the big political upset of this decade So I think it's a I think it's a strange metric. I mean a great example She hasn't offered a metric that that's the point that what I Personal approval ratings. That's what she's saying Well, she's saying personally I'm saying that Trump's personal approval ratings were terrible Yeah, and he defied all the odds and won the presidency in 2016. Well, that's partly I mean, he's still lost the popular vote, right? So Hillary Clinton. Yeah, we have the same Hillary Clinton had bad personal ratings Donald Trump had bad But what I'm saying is that that he doesn't break the rule that you tend to lose The popular you tend to not get the most votes if you have lower popularity or lower approval ratings than your competitor Yeah, but she's saying if I she's not saying if I have lower approval ratings than my competitor She's saying if I have low approval ratings, which is not she's not saying if I minus 20 Let me let me make a bet here at the next general election all the main candidates will have negative approval ratings I'll happily say that now. That's the most likely thing. So I think it's a I just think it's a strange I agree with the impulse. We don't want people to be unpopular who lead political parties if we want to succeed But I just think it's a bit You know, and it's the George Lakoff thing don't think of an elephant the first thing you think of as an elephant Your sort of campaign spiel don't think of me resigning support approval ratings. Okay.  I think Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't necessarily have launched my leadership campaign with this particular promise It doesn't you know, I think you should probably launch your leader leadership campaign with your vision for Britain And your pitch of what you know, a Labour government would look like in five years time Starting with this seems a little bit defeatist and it seems like you know potentially As I said, I wouldn't lead on it But I do think it is something that many people in the party myself included will find I'm gonna move close towards you I don't like this shot to some degree Okay Isn't that gonna mess up your other camera? Well, I have to move it. I think okay, we'll keep we'll keep talking right In hindsight I think many people would think that if if you're going into a general election Next time around and someone is is minus 60 in in the approval ratings that they won't get the benefit of the doubt people will not be inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt in the same way that Jeremy Corbyn was and I think in hindsight probably Labour might have done better if Say in the summer Corbyn had stood aside and McDonald had taken over and that's not to blame anyone because we weren't calling for it at the time. This is very much in hindsight and I mean, there were a couple of reasons he didn't so one is that it was you know there was no because of because of the miracle of 2017 where Corbyn improved his rating so so greatly in that short period of time People thought that you know, maybe maybe minus 60 isn't something to feel that negative about But also there was the factional issue of if he resigns then how are you going to manage a succession? Also the question of you know who would be the potential successor Whereas I think that Emily form break as Laura Pidcock. I mean that one worked out. Well, would it? Well, maybe it would have actually if the results are better. Yeah, I mean that the in there's an interesting Sebastian pain piece You know about the Tory campaign he's saying they found, you know The most useful thing for that for their campaign the easiest way to get majority was the fact that everyone hated Jeremy Corbyn a lot Well, a large proportion of the public hated Jeremy Corbyn And it is very difficult going into an election and trying to win when someone's that unpopular But that's not accidentals. I mean millions of pounds were spent on people hating Jeremy Corbyn You could do the exact same thing to the replacement surely It seems quite a weird thing to presume is like a static variable. Yeah. Well, so in terms of What I'll finish that point, which is that what Emily formery can say is she will create a situation Where succession is possible if possible if necessary So if so we won't be in a position where we go into an election with a mortally wounded leader Because I will have a team around me who if I moved mortally wounded can take over and we'll have a process by which That that can happen in terms of how do you know when it's necessary to replace someone? When is someone mortally wounded? so I think with With Jeremy Corbyn in hindsight what you can see is that there were two issues which flawed him basically which took him off The pitch so one of them was anti-semitism and one of them was Brexit and the reason they flawed him was because he He failed to answer either of those questions every time he was an interview particularly Anti-semitism anytime there was an interview if he was asked about that he couldn't give You know a clear honest response. He froze up and that meant that he was taken off the pitch He wasn't put forward to many media appearances for over a year. He was you know hidden from view often and That meant that the public got an image of him that was you know, either he wasn't there or if he was there He looked suspicious and he looked shifty Brexit was was somewhat similar. I don't with brexit I don't think it was a problem of presentation. It was a problem of strategy and Because on both of those issues really Jeremy Corbyn was mortally wounded because there was not a decisive enough move in his team I think from him to create an answer to those two very difficult questions Ed Miliband was apparently the liability in 2015 Why because again millions of pounds was spent on on demeaning him and impugning his character 2010 Maybe Older viewers can say all the people older older than say 35 or something can remember the 2010 general election I remember a friend of mine.  He didn't have one eye work in this blind Scott the fact that you know he misspelled the name of The widow or the mother of somebody who died in Afghanistan or Iraq a soldier story after story after story and they they destroyed Brown's Personal credibility. I'd love to the approval ratings around Brown ahead of 2010 by the way given what he'd achieved We can get them up. They've given what he'd achieved. They were quite. I think they're about minus 20 Yeah, and this is Gordon Brown. This is a person who's been who's been the chance of the Exchequer For 10 years prior to becoming the prime minister who'd you know who'd been part of a neocon security establishment. So In context you can look what they did to Gordon Brown You're never gonna get a more establishment figure other than literally Tony Blair. He started from a very different place We can talk about that as well. Perhaps later on they're gonna the exact same thing to any leader now That's not to say Jeremy Corbyn didn't have major issues. You can get better candidates who handle those issues better I'm sure you can but it's gonna be an evergreen part of of anybody who's leading a Party like labor that's gonna break with the status quo You know the next leader the labor party next general election will probably go into that election minus 20 approval ratings They just will but the other evergreen part of politics given that we live in a democracy Is that people don't elect someone they hate right so so approval ratings? Yes, they're affected by the media But well in every in every election since 1979 It's not true It's always been the case that the leader with the best approval ratings their party has won apart from in 2005 when Michael Howard had slightly greater approval Ratings Boris Johnson. Yeah, but they're much better than yes. He's hated less than you know Corbyn Well, he's Donald Trump was hated. He was hated less than Hillary Clinton I just find it a really weird index for political success. No, but I mean it just it just is historically So it's not because they're all hated. Yeah, but that you can be hated by different degrees, right? You're saying be the less hated candidate. Absolutely History shows if you are the less if you are the less less hated candidate You are likely to become the next prime minister. Well, no because we well the next president We've only collected this data for the last 40 50 years. I imagine 50 years come on That's a while. Well, I imagine Clement Attlee for instance was widely hated in 1945 I'd love to have seen his approval ratings versus Churchill Churchill lost Churchill was loved by the country in 1945 He just overseen the defeat of Nazi Germany in the 1930s FDR Roosevelt hates it Some of the stuff you see from the financial press against FDR in the was it the 31 US election But the point of how approval ratings work right is you can be hated by 50% of the people But if you're loved by 50% of the people your approval rating comes out as zero, obviously, that's fine The problem we called him wasn't so much that he was hated by 75% Well, I mean 75% that's pretty fucking high But it's the difference between them if you can't if you can't carry any yeah Positivity and commitment amongst the electric. We agree. So I imagine with Clement Attlee and I imagine with FDR Oh, I'm fortunate. We don't I'm fortunate. We don't have the the data with us Well, Trump was never at near to minus was never close to minus 60 You know, I don't know don't don't know where near as bad as he had sort of 30 40 in favor and 50 odd Who would dramatically again? Well, this is the this is the example that's given to me by a friend And they say Starbucks is the most successful coffee company in America and only like 70% of Americans hate it But the point is 30% Americans love it and they'll go there every day So that's why like high approval ratings doesn't really mean very much But that's why you don't have to be low to be in positives But if you're in minus 60, then you're probably not gonna win the next general election suggesting otherwise Anybody who said Corbyn will win this with minus six nobody said that people said oh, they'll improve of the course for campaign Which they did but nowhere near enough Sure. Well, so then the point is how do you demonstrate as a leader that you are going to be in in shape? To rescue your approval ratings and I think because of what I've I've just said that Corbyn was Was mortally wounded to an extent that there was no way that he was going to be able to win back those Those all that support that he had for a brief period in 2017 because there were two questions Which he had been unable to answer not necessarily his own personal fault because answers had not been You know decided upon in his team that meant that he you know he was taken off the pitch and His approval ratings barely did raise during that general election. Okay, but we're not about 20 But it's for you at the next leader is subject to four years of being the leader of the opposition They will have Just as much trying them and then maybe like the leader of the New Zealand Labour Party They should resign someone else can come to the to the fore who doesn't have quite as much mud That's news in Britain. New Zealand is not Britain Britain has a far worse Press than anywhere else in the world Is that the case? Yes, then anywhere else in the world I imagine Murdoch kinds of fair few newspapers. He ends well He owns the Australian which is the largest print newspaper in Australia, but New Zealand is less under his control. Yes Is that the case?  I'll happily say that Britain's press environment is Unbelievable look at look at Rebecca Long Bailey. Look at the the paper that the articles put out by the times of Sunday Times in the last couple of days Unbelievable calling a staff a Stalinist on the base of a badge and then this is repeated ad nauseam by people We've never met this poor guy and then another piece about rubber. This is one I don't know if you saw this but we can pull up. We're gonna get we've got all the Becky Long Bailey stuff in here Well, I don't you're the host you you push on I Can run about that in a second. You're watching Tisgis hour You're watching Navarra media as you know This show is only possible because of your kind support if you are already a subscriber Thank you very much. If not, please go to support on Navarra media dot-com and donate the equivalent of one hour's wage a Month keep your comments coming will go to your questions at the end and if you Go to Twitter tweet on the hashtag Tisgis hour and ask questions or make comments We will also bring those up during the show. It means more people are directed To the show and to Navarra media. We're gonna talk about Becky Long Bailey So yeah, and this is an interesting point referring to the back to the previous one because when you talk about When I when I've spoken about on Twitter the fact that if it's no good to say that the media will always attack the left wing Leader so therefore we can accept disastrous approval rates.  Yeah, so if you're interested in winning elections, you're gonna have to have some response to it, right? Becky Long Bailey what she's what her candidacy so far has proven what we already knew Which was that if you were anywhere to the left of Tony Blair the media will Make up any nonsense bullshit About your past to try and attack you and it's got really really desperate In the case of Becky Long probably it's probably this is why I said oh look the times are really scared of Rebecca Long Bailey And people said oh no, they're not Firstly they are because they don't want a labor leader who actually is gonna help the sort of left-wood drift and the national conversation Which on policy is in our people and that by the way that precedes Corbyn that probably starts actually give them credit under Ed That's the first point. The second point is of course, they're scared because look They will be giving a lot of time over to this and the best they can find is what oh Actually her dad was a dock worker when she was two rather than six. Yeah, let's let's get up some of them So on Saturday so the times are up three stories in two days this this weekend a couple of them made the front page So on Saturday Stalinist takes charge of Rebecca Long Bailey's labor leadership campaign The evidence for this is that her organizer Once wore a badge that said good night Trotsky. I Slightly bad taste, but it doesn't really make someone a Stalinist It's a sort of joke Mike Gates would make yeah, so labor right used to make jokes like that in the 80s then on Sunday Labor contender Rebecca Long Bailey trades prolier than now porkies The the expose here is the Corbyn ally the Corbyn ally So Becky Long Bailey has repeatedly told interview as her outlook as a politician was shaped by watching her father worry about losing his job That's out for Docs. However, Long Bailey 40 was just two years old when the Docs closed in 1982 And then our final Did you get the football one dramatic? That's from the Telegraph. So the final the final dramatic revelation from the Times is That her left-wing organizer had helped other left-wingers get elected in the Northwest So this is labor leadership Rebecca Long Bailey's fixer plays a long game to secure top job The quote Rebecca Long Bailey's hard left leadership campaign chief has been building her support base for months by organizing the selection as Parliamentary candidates of several momentum members who are now MPs according to several sources free long-serving members of constituency labor parties in the Northwest described Mr. Haligan So that's her campaign manager as Unites hard man part of Southford mafia of left-wing organizers Who helped secure the nomination of their chosen candidates in Birkenhead Stockport, Warrington North, Liverpool West Derby and Liverpool? wavortree Impressive guy to be fair. I mean no conspiracy. He's a left-wing organizer It's I think he works for momentum and he's one for the left selections in What is it six or seven constituencies in one region including Becky long Bailey and the idea that this is well That's in 2015 six so it's in total. It's probably much more than seven because I think he was involved Instrumentals and potentially Angie Rainer. Well, she's in stock for right. What's her rent? What's her CLP? Angela Rainer? Yeah, I'm not sure maybe stop She's from stop. Yeah, but the idea that this was a sort of long-term Conspiracy to try and bolster the support for Becky Long Bailey to get on the ballot in any future leadership election as opposed to just the normal activity of Someone who is a left-wing organizer trying to organize also in a completely above the board above the board Yeah And it's about you know lobbying CLP members. Yeah getting those selected in key seats. That's what they do You're right. The Telegraph expose is the most ridiculous one So they ran with the Stalinist theme Labour leadership front runner Rebekah Long Bailey said she would rule the park. She would like to rule party with iron fist So she's painting a picture here, you know an authoritarian leftist, but then when you look at the full quote It says in an interview with independent website the Southwood star before her an election as an MP in 2015 Miss Long Bailey said she had no control over other members when presented with criticisms of her predecessors Ian Stewart and Hazel Blears I can't rule it with an iron fist much as I'd love to she said So that gets translated into she wants to rule it with an iron fist The the the article gets even more ridiculous as you go on So in a campaign video released This is again a quote from from the Telegraph in a campaign video released last month Becky Long Bailey claimed to be born to the sound of the roar of the Stratford end of old Trafford stadium So it's quite a nice poetic video talking about her past her history But it turns out that on the day that Rebecca Long Bailey was born Manchester United who used the stadium were playing 75 miles away in Wolverhampton Damning stuff, isn't it? That's like oh, I was born to the sound of bow bells Which is what people generally say if they're born in East London, you know near near bow church Well, actually you were born on a Saturday not a Sunday. I mean, it's just fucking not it's not it's a met It's a metaphor and she was born by the way for the record in old Trafford the area You know where the stadium is located not on the not on the pitch It wasn't born on the pitch at halftime. She wasn't you know baptized by some at Busby She she just happens to be born next to stadium She is a man United supporter. I've seen a photo of her at Old Trafford with a man United scarf.  I don't know that's true I don't think that's true. The thing about Alex. Alex Halligan being a Stalinist First of all, the Times is definitely not meant to be this nutty the telegraph quite nutty fine The Sun the Times is not meant to be this nutty and like the fact that they've responded like this so quickly They absolutely don't want her to win But look people just screen I think you know, we we have to think about the sort of broader media environment people screen shot It you have 200,000 Rachel Riley couple hundred thousand follows on Twitter Stalinist shares and then it gets into the culture. Oh, yeah, of course She seems she might seem okay, but everybody knows of course, you know her team is all Stalinist So I think it's really important to the general population. So this is I suppose it's different The anti-Semitism and Brexit issues for Jeremy Corbyn and everything else they threw at him So this claim about you know, she had a Stalinist organizer or she was actually, you know, when she was born Manchester United were playing away So they could not literally have been the cheers of Manchester United fans as she was as her mother was was giving birth to her These are the kind of things that remind me of the Czech spy stuff with Jeremy Corbyn stuff that didn't actually land Because it was so obviously ridiculous and when he was in an interview, he knew how to respond to it Which was just laugh it off if if they the issue is if they find something or Or an issue arises it might not be something in her past but something, you know Which arises in in in British politics at that period in time, which she can't respond to which then interrupts any Opportunity to deliver what her message is is for Britain So this is the kind of stuff that wouldn't worry me Ed Miliband Who was the first Jewish leader of the Labour Party? His father Ralph Miliband fought in the Second World War, right? There's a became a leading British Jewish academic after the war at the LSE fantastic guy Ralph Miliband break clever they used Ralph Miliband as a means of saying the Milibands hate this country and then they Completely inverted that to say that Jeremy Corbyn hates the kinds of people that you know that the Milibands are and by the way when Ralph Miliband Became a story during Ed Miliband's leadership Who was the only Labour politician willing to defend Ralph Miliband and his legacy on the BBC? It's Jeremy Corbyn So I just think they're so flexible in their approach, right? Yeah, but that didn't stick that didn't stick on Ed Miliband Did it 30% a lot stuck on it wasn't that particular issue? I mean the issue that stuck with Ed Miliband was that people thought he was a bit weird People didn't think he was very strong I think the dads and marks is academic It's additive and it sort of because he wasn't willing to go full anti-establishment Yeah, I think if he'd gone full anti-establishment he potentially could have answered all of those. Oh, yeah, okay All of those critiques so so I mean I suppose you can say that Ed Miliband was flawed by his unwillingness to go anti-establishment Or his you know, there was that picture. I think fairly closely election where he was holding up a picture of the Sun Like holding up us holding up an addition of the Sun in part of some sort of PR campaign for them I can't remember what the exact issue was. I think it was maybe the World Cup Or euros or whatever But he didn't have a response because he couldn't go anti-establishment Jeremy Corbyn had a response until 2017 because then He could go anti-establishment, but that didn't work when it came to Brexit or anti-semitism and then he got taken off the pitch We'll need to see whether Becky Long Bailey has the you know The flexibility and the leadership qualities for when those attacks come Can she turn them around and make them into a benefit? Obviously you have to the problem is to To win as a left winger you have to be about ten times as good as your right wing opponent Well, since there's two there's two competing strategies, right to deal with this One is that you just have to be more captivating more entertaining or telegenic than the opponent Barak Obama Right you have to outdo them in every way another way is I guess and this may be the approach that's adopted by Rebecca Long Bailey It's just to basically close off the arguments as much as possible. So if you see what I'm saying quite be quite Well, how would you do what does that mean though in practice? What would that look like? Well, so for instance with their miller band one of the one of the responses to their his father He would do what the what the what Steve Vanenkels walking towards the fire He said yeah My dad was a Marx academic this country believes in freedom of speech He fought for this country in the second world war so damn slightly more than you did and guess what like him I want to change this country for working people you walk towards the fire, right? The question is would that with with a Rebecca Long Bailey? Would that be the best strategy and it may be just better to sort of like Pacify it stick on policies stick on the big narrative, etc. etc. I don't know a candidate like Clive Lewis would be far better placed I think than Rebecca Long Bailey to walk towards the fire because he's you know quick on his feet He's mixed race, you know, he's a ex serviceman of those, you know, his territorial army wasn't a full-time mommy So, you know, I think he if he could pretty do that strategy better than her I think where she could do better than Clive is You know sticking to policy actually dampening down the kind of more Deranged aspects the British media because like I said, that just doesn't seem to be that much on her And you know people kind of get bored feel like this is kind of boring I don't really worry. I mean these are all really boring stories really boring don't stick I agree and that's why she could that's why she could be a good candidate. Although they will try their best to To completely misrepresent her. Well, and also I suppose Although did this not happen before 2017? So obviously the reason why I mean the anti-semitism issue Damaged Corbyn so much is one that he struggled to answer questions about it in interviews But also the PLP and you know kept the story running. So I don't know if if Long Bailey wins you'll have the PLP who are constantly giving quotes to the various newspapers saying oh, you know It's a red line that we have to get rid of this Stalinist Alex Halligan Although to be honest, they've tried that with Seamus Milne and Carrie Murphy and that never stuck either because it is it's just an SW1 story It's a Westminster story that no one cares about. Yeah. Well, that's you. There was some good polling on this You maybe you're gonna pull up later you got polling about what about why labor loss and Jeremy Corbyn was number one Maybe we can pull that up folks Brexit was number two. Although, of course, you know, we probably agree. There's not that sharp delineation delineation between Corbyn and Brexit Mm-hmm, and like only five percent said extremism three percent said extremism I think three percent said extremism so thirty five percent said so this was asked by you gov This was only published today. Actually. This was people who had voted labor in 2017, but switched To even on voting or voting for a different party in 2019 asked why 35% said Jeremy Corbyn or leadership 19% said Brexit 16% said policy Slash economic competence 10% said tactical voting 3% said extremism and 20% said other. Yeah So a lot of those although I suppose many people would just Collapse extremism into Corbyn and leadership in the same way that Brexit was often collapsed into it as well Yeah, but I'm still surprised it's so low three percent Um here Are you here for care? I'm not here for any of these candidates yet. I'm yet to be one over. It's very important to say that also I want to interview all of them. So I'm gonna be very civil Oh, no entire all the leadership. I was on BBC radio five live with John McTernan on Saturday night and You know They basically said are you all supporting a wreck along Bailey? You know well first of all, she's not announced her candidacy I actually I think probably I won't support anybody publicly Maybe until the final wicks the campaign cuz like I say look we have a responsibility to inform our our audience in the viral media I think and it's you have to give everybody a fair crack of the whip and I said that and they said come on You're not gonna back Jess Phillips and I said look I'm really looking forward to Jess Phillips finally talking about policy That will be interesting actually I've got no I've got absolutely no idea what policies she supports Um Here Stammer Kier Stammer brings up a different issue. So we've we've Emily form Brie It's you know, should you resign if you've become unpopular with Becky long Bailey It's you know, the the depths that the media will go to smear anyone who's remotely on the left with Kier Stammer. It is What I suppose what what kind of leadership candidate do to prove that they will not radically shift the party to the right So if they're you know, obviously, that's not particularly worried with Rebecca long Bailey or Clive Lewis But someone like Stammer who doesn't have a history on on the on the hard left or the you know The well, I suppose he's probably he's a bit of a centrist really isn't he I mean He's pitch he's pitching himself as a left-wing in the past But he doesn't come from the tradition of say Clive Lewis or Becky long Bailey. Well, his names first for his names Kier After Kier Hardy. So is that obviously had some sort of left-wing clinicians, but he's done some pretty cool things. He's He's obviously done some, you know bad things as well, but if you're looking at the cool things He was on the mclibelle trial work pro bono working for free.  This is him on ITV news. I Think that Jeremy Corbyn was right in 2015 When he said we should be an anti austerity party We should be against cuts to public spending and that was a fundamentally an important shift in our party and what I'm concerned about in the aftermath of this election is that we Oversteer and lurch to a different position Without recognize what an important shift that was and we've got form on this in 2010 We In the result of after the crash We started to think that austerity and cuts might be acceptable in 2015. We started to accept that Cuts to welfare benefits might be acceptable because we were oversteering what we mustn't do in 2019 is make the same I mean, he's making the right noise is there a so I mean I suppose that you know the strength of Kier Stammer's candidacy is that he thinks that people can picture him or labor members can picture the country picturing him as a prime minister, obviously, you know, it was a it was a An upsetting shocking election result for many people many people would like to see the labor party in a safe pair of hands who they are You know convinced will be able to shore up Some voters in marginals and they see Kier Stammer as the person to do it But what they want to be persuaded of is that all the gains which were made under under Corbyn's leadership of the party so, you know Moving the party away from backing austerity as they did in in 2015 after a middle-end lost Being much more proud in in their anti-war stance in support for refugees These issues will not be abandoned the moment that Corbyn or a Corbynite candidate is out of of the leadership of the party I mean, there's two issues here for Kier. Well, you know, will people believe him and what could he do to prove what? Is there anything he can do to prove that the labor party will not lurch to the right under his leadership? I Mean I've just run a piece about this for Navarra It's up on the wrong media comm about how that the only person we know really that's related to his campaign right now worked on the Owen Smith campaign in 2016 He was a chair and vice-chair of that campaign and he's now and he was the head of compliance and finance as well So it's a senior position and basically the data collection at Kier Starmer comm Because of course their GDPR compliant There's a limited company that is accountable for that data and this gentleman who also works on their own Smith campaign is the director of that company and My worry with Kier Starmer would be that he would just basically become a safe house for a lot of the advisers Policy advisors comms people etc That went to Andy Burnham that went to the vet Cooper that went to women's Smith in 2016 So it's less the man himself. If Kier Starmer surrounded himself with, you know, me at a fun aboula Pfizer Shaheen Maybe James Medway Grace Blakely people like this. I'll be like, okay You know, I can see that and actually that's probably what labor needs So that's the appeal of Kier Starmer somebody coming from not necessarily the left of the party who recognizes We just said there the need to move away from austerity the need to democratize the party even just slightly but certainly not deed democratize it and To bring in left-wing advice and stick to left-wing policies, but look professional look telegenic fine, right? That is the offer of Kier Starmer I just don't think that that bit with the people he's going to bring in Given what we've already seen the first hire is somebody who worked for Owen Smith, you know I just don't see that happening. Like this is a guy who is a hoban in St. Pancras MP. He became synonymous with Romain. He didn't just resign in 2016 He supported Owen Smith. He told the news dates when he supported on Smith 100% was perfectly clear. He wasn't gonna win He campaigned for him, you know, he went out on the on the campaign trail that events them and so on He said in 2016, we should have a second referendum alongside Owen Smith He says after the 2017 general election. Oh, we have to respect the result. He says in 2018 We need a second referendum. So, you know, I'm not being filled with confidence about the sort of political backbone of this guy That said, you know, if he does the pitch, we probably agree He could do I can see why that will appeal to people to his left I mean there is also in terms of, you know positioning on the people's vote Or the public or the second referendum or whatever I mean that journey he went on is a similar journey that lots of them went on right So even even Becky Long Bailey was saying by the end that he was an early adopter, wasn't it? I mean in 2016 he was saying we need a second referendum alongside Owen Smith Yeah, what what he what he moved away and then he moved back to the benefit his his his strength And I think why currently he's it appears that he's the most popular candidate among the Labour members Obviously a lot can change in over a campaign is that one he's perceived as being, you know, competent and electable No, well, you know, we're yet to see how electable he would be Obviously, it's going to be an incredible challenge if he places himself anywhere to the left of Tony Blair for him not to get Monstered by by the mainstream press but perceptions of him I think quite rightly is is that for the past two years He has been somewhat of a team player more than Emily Fornberry in fact So he when he goes on TV, right, he appears to go on TV to defend. What is the front bench position? Yeah, and yes in in in Shadow Cabinet It seems that he was arguing for a second referendum, which is absolutely his right but what he consistently did was went on the shows and Articulated in a fairly convincing way or as you know as convincing way as possible what the Labour position was Which was a bit, you know by the end Fornberry was kind of freelancing And it often seemed like she was trying to outright the leadership Basically to appeal to what she was quite a remain base. So I'm pretty didn't resign in 2016. He did That's a good point. So she was more loyal in 2016 But by by 2019 he appeared the more loyal I think that's absolutely true in the last three years He's been incredibly loyal absolutely a team player. I suppose sure. It's not even a lot. Yeah team player Which I think Emily misjudged that in the sense that I think she thought what the what the membership will value at this point Is someone who is out and out remain and so she tried to go on every show and said, oh, yeah The part is a bit too wishy-washy, you know the positions a bit too wishy-washy for me I'm a passionate remainer. Obviously at Labour Party conference She wore the you know the necklace with the with the yellow stars around that was crazy And I think that did I think what she missed Hopefully we'll get her on the show. I'm gonna talk about this. Yeah Is that one thing Labour members really value is loyalty to the party They want they want to think that what your number one priority is is getting Labour into government instead of I suppose promoting your own Individual candidacy which potentially is why she started with this offer to say I will resign if I'm unpopular Could be a fool. Maybe she realized that she'd that she'd seemed too Self-serving in her presentation. So I was I said I will resign nominations from the Parliamentary Party What because they see her as an option as to how you could get someone much more right-wing in 2023 That's another theory nominations Let's go. We'll go to your start typing your questions because we are gonna end on the dot at nine today on the door at nine Well five past nine. We'll have a show that we started five minutes late. Yeah Let's do Clive while you're typing those questions Clive Lewis has made the most interesting pitch probably So his offer Has I think it's been the most substantive of all of them So obviously Emily has made a substantive point, which is that she'll resign if she's unpopular But doesn't say that much about the politics of the country Kira's basically said let's not Switch to the right, but you can have someone electable Becky hasn't really said anything yet. She's she might not run silent Clive Lewis has said that he is gonna stand and what he is in favor of is further democratizing the Labor Party and Moving to proportional representation great in terms of the electoral system. Let's get a couple of quotes from his guardian piece Which was published late last week I thought this was a strange headline so the truth can be heard. I was kind of weird Yeah, that was a bit weird Well, I mean that was how he decided to pitch it though because he in parts He sort of suggested he didn't even want to win He just wanted the truth to be heard but in any case on party democracy The truth is that despite his enormous achievements in inspiring a new generation of members Jeremy Corbyn's first promise as leader was never fulfilled The party was never democratized on the scale or to the extent that members were led to expect They were never empowered to campaign select candidates or determine policy on a scale that was required This must now change. We don't need foot soldiers We need an army of activists who think critically treat each other with respect and have a serious democratic stake in the movement I don't want to manage the movement. I want to unleash it. That is the first route to victory And then on electoral reform the truth is that after Jeremy became leader We fought two elections on an electoral system that massively favours the conservatives and their voter base of proper property pensioners A majority of the British public voted for parties of the left or the liberal center But this was in nowhere reflected in the election result Labor should have committed itself to changing the voting system decades ago And we have condemned some parts of our country to 40 years of decline by failing to do so I mean the first part of that is definitely music theory is right You're always talking about how you know the Labour Party has to deepen democracy for it to be successful in the future But there's a point here Lauren Conway saying he said to woman get on your knees bitch while at a momentum event No, it was actually a Navarra media event and he said it to a man Just just to clarify. I'm not saying Clive Lewis is an A you know choir boy Or there's nothing else but that in relation to that specific incident. He said it to a man as a joke You might say it's inappropriate language for an MP. I would say that In terms of his pitch on proportion representation, I agree I'd like to basically say, you know, I think I'd like to see from every single Labour candidate You know if Kirsten said I would like us to move to and clear not like some airy-fairy way I want us to move to additional members system or single transferable vote and elected House of Lords and I'd like to see Even if he just committed Labour to another democracy review, which let's be real It's just kicking it into long I think they should go for a sort of because the way you say we're gonna deepen democracy without You know in a non-hard left ways you go for open primaries I think Kier should go for open primaries and proportional representation And then he'd have a substantial campaign as opposed to just I'm a nice guy who's not that right wing I agree and I think and also the whole PR thing would bring in a lot of the Lib Dem vote and the green vote that Labour will need to win the next because if you're going for somebody like Kirsten It needs to be it won't be just clearly Labour needs when I'm back a lot of these seats They're just lost in the north, but it would also be about How do you go over the line in? Wimbledon How do you go over the line in? Stroud there's like there's like 20 30 seats where you can see how Kirsten would work And PR would be an intelligent part of that so if he did that I'd say okay That's that's a sensible thing, but again. I just think you know the recent track record of the Labour Center Even though I think it's probably left wing That's what he's trying to appeal to is not particularly like innovative David Miliband in 2010 Ed Miliband in 2010 they didn't really have a really concrete strategy like that Well, the problem I suppose and this would be the challenge to Kier and something that Clive gets I think is that There's no point in trying to take the easy option Because the easy option is obviously to say let's do the 2017 manifesto But with someone who's got less baggage and people can imagine as prime minister But and you know, that's it Simple that's what I can imagine Kier doing and it probably will fail What what Clive Lewis is suggesting is that if you do the same thing over and over again and you keep failing Then and you have to remember that for the last 45 years The only the only person who has become a Labour Prime Minister on our current voting system Was so close to Rupert Murdoch that he became godfather to Rupert Murdoch's child You know, so so unless you are literally You know licking the asshole of the billionaires that own britain's press Then you can't become a Labour Prime Minister So that does suggest that you do, you know, we have to have some sort of fundamental Fundamentally ambitious strategy more than just saying let's have You know someone who people can imagine as p.m. Yeah, and stick to anti austerity Now I've been thinking about this, you know the one thing that 1997 the Blair rights got right And you know, we often slag them off Well, they got a lot right actually they were very good on constitutional reform initially Devolution of Scotland and Wales etc The mayor of London changing the electoral system for European elections and so on They got that five, you know, the five promises on their pledge card So succinct so clever and I think, you know, Labour should be looking to do that again And it would be, you know, to sort of take back control rhetoric, but for five or six political points I would have make votes matter Something like, you know You know educate our people, you know, it sounds kind of like the right wing No, but like basically upskill the entire work Free education and make national education service not a thing about going to university for free but vocation education Lifelong learning etc. etc. It's like a working class thing Um things like that and so yeah, you bring together electoral reform Not just an anti austerity sort of platform But something beyond it as well and and something about media reform, you know That was one of the big disappointments of this of this manifesto. Nothing on media reform Nothing. Well, except what's the point in talking about disappointments? I mean the whole point of the manifesto was they put too much stuff in it. You can do it in government, right? No, I think no, but I think no, but I think there's a use in having it in your Manifesto because then when the media come after you say, well, look, I know why they're attacking me because we're saying We're saying people like Rupert Murdoch because a US citizen doesn't pay tax it He can't own media outlets in this country until he does pay tax it then people are like, oh, okay That's that's a sensible explanation as to why they're attacking you So I think there's a there's a smart pragmatism about having media reform in your platform Let's see people asking about Rainer potential So people are Angela Rainer has said she's going to run as Or it's been reported she's going to run as deputy to Becky Long Bailey And have a sort of joint leadership candidate Angus Robertson tweets such a shame Laura Pitcock is unable to have a shot at leadership. Maybe later Um, I mean potentially she could get you know dropped into some by-election somewhere I imagine what she'll do is hang around in northwest Durham and try and get try and win back that seat Or she'll get a job at the labor party Yeah She'd be a great, you know, maybe general secretary or a regional head, you know head of region or yeah I think she's not going anywhere. She's a hugely, you know, she's a great asset Juliet jakes asks could a labor leader do better with the broadcast media By constantly breaking the 4-4 eg talking directly to the audience turning questions around on the interviewers. Yes Yeah, I like that idea. Yeah completely subvert the form which by the way labor completely failed to do in the last year um Daniel Lo asked how can any left-wing candidate for leader defend themselves against the press This is you know, the example we talk about this all the time But the person who has been under the most sustained attack From you know, a viciously right-wing press but managed to retain, you know A large degree of popularity in the United States. I think it's it's gone slightly negative now But it's when it's negative it's sort of minus 10. It's not minus 60 is Bernie Sanders And that's because there's no issue that's flawed Bernie Sanders because he you know He seems to always have an answer to whatever is put to him and he always pivots to you know What his what is his core message? Which is that there's there's too much inequality in the United States and the working class people are getting screwed over By the naught point 1% and he has for four years managed to Yeah, but he didn't win the nomination Yeah, but it's not like it's not like he was in the cap, you know We're off against trump. He wasn't even nominated for the democratic party. So let's see, you know, let's yeah His poll ratings. He was like it's like saying it's like saying kia starmas poll ratings are good Yeah, it's because he's never had the top no, come on Bernie Sanders They've been put under so much more scrutiny and has been subject to so many more attacks than kia starma I agree that it's not the same as Jeremy Corbyn because one yeah, he hasn't been the candidate yet We will see, you know the attacks on Bernie Sanders ramped up to the nth degree if he is up against Donald trump and also, I mean an issue we talked about before is he doesn't have the same Problem as Jeremy Corbyn did which is that he had to lead a parliamentary party in which you know, that was just constant Rebellion and briefing against him which which Bernie Sanders wouldn't have to deal with because it's a presidential system And he only has to answer for himself But he is someone who unlike really anyone I've seen in in britain is able to Pivot respond well respond convincingly and pivot to the issue He wants to talk about whenever he is asked Fox is saying let's yeah because we actually haven't talked about brexit So because we haven't talked about brexit we should frame that discussion with a clip of Lisa nandy Who is a leadership candidate? We haven't mentioned And this is her I think last week talking about brexit she's an interesting candidate because something we haven't mentioned yet is that I mean, I think me and you both Are kind of on the same page that potentially backing a second referendum was a mistake Everyone we've mentioned so far is on the record of backing a second referendum Other than Lisa nandy. She's the only person who's standing for leader who hasn't so let's go to that clip now See I've seen some talk this morning that there was confusion over our brexit policy But honestly the people that came up to me and we're going over the last couple of years And said with really really annoyed with us about backing a second referendum They weren't confused about our brexit policy. They knew what was going on They could see that effectively what had happened was we'd stopped listening to one half of the country And we subtract contracted our policy to it to a lobbying Organization the people's vote. We were simply following a line by that stage We thought that we could say to those people this is about more democracy And that the people need the right to decide but to those people it was profoundly offensive because they are people They did decide and if it had gone the other way it was very hard to imagine that it would have been different The I mean what was really cool about that statement actually is I thought Lisa nandy's strongest line there was saying This isn't actually about because no the easy answer that everyone's gone for including people like kia starmer I said, you know the problem is that our position wasn't particularly clear So kia starmer was saying on on the today program last week You know we we never managed to challenge boris johnson's claim that he was going to get brexit done And actually the the reason you couldn't challenge it is because it was true You know in terms of the culture war he was going to get brexit done because the people's campaign the people's vote campaign Is dead now because he won a majority Lisa nandy's like yeah, the problem wasn't that we were unclear We work, you know people aren't stupid. They knew what we were going to do and what we were going to do was have a second referendum Which was obviously, you know Siding with remainers And they didn't like that. Yeah, and I kind of like you know, it's honest and to be fair to her She stood to that line throughout The three years since the referendum never wavered And that you know, that wasn't that didn't seem to be a factional thing That didn't seem to be a wrecking policy because she backed the leadership position up until the leadership position changed towards the second referendum If I remember if I remember correctly. Yeah, no, I well, yeah, she's mp4. We're gonna mean she kind of had to right But I mean although I mean there was loads of mps in in proper leave seats who who were part of the people's vote campaign People like mary creve for example who is now constantly on the airway of saying Ah, jeremy corbin lost us these seats. He should resign. He's a disgrace She has got lots of time, but she was you know front and center of the people I agree with what you're saying and I think you know, I often get upset when Jeremy Corbyn won the Labour leadership in 2015 2016 because he was the best candidate That's just the brutal reality of it. He was the best candidate and he won and that's what will happen this time round And often you see like sort of James O'Brien or these sort of new european style people or alas the Campbell Saying that you know He was an idiot and basically these people think that their vote matters more than yours or mine That's basically they think they know everything and that they don't believe in one person one vote and that they always know right Now and and for anybody watching this If you're a labour supporter and you see this stuff on twitter, you know, how infuriating it is now imagine if You were somewhere and you'd voted for brexit and you had the exact same sensation not just to the majority of sort of broadcast media But it's an entire political party the Labour Party and it's yeah, it's infuriating You know, there are very few instances of political parties saying we will roll back a referendum result We're committing to that. So hey, we're not just going to say you were wrong We're also going to make you know, it's going to take ages to actually establish what we do instead Like who's ever run on that position and won it was a crazy position. It was utterly crazy Cancer argument where you had to do it because the membership wanted it. Okay, that's probably true Right, that's probably true. Corbanism strength was always its membership and the membership was drifting away over the issue But she's absolutely right. They've had a very clear position. It was actually a decent compromise People didn't want compromise. Many many people even voted remain Respect to the referendum. This was always a niche thing But sadly, you know too many people in the Labour Party listen to people like the observer The point about is that what the membership wanted? I think it's an interesting one because I do think there's a There's a, you know, alternative history where the leadership in 2018 and this for me was the key, you know, the key Crocs moment in in the past two years in the Labour Party, which was where the Labour leadership Allowed and didn't fight back against a composite motion at the 2018 conference where we committed to Keeping a public vote on the table, which basically meant the Labour leadership could never again argue against a public vote, right? And I think that if if Corbyn had or his team or anyone had sort of had it out With another Europe is possible in those campaigners and said no, we're not going to do this Had it out, you know, had a had a persuasive conversation with the membership to say We're not going to have a second referendum because that would undermine Democracy and it would make us look like we're ignoring and disrespecting and basically telling huge parts of the population to fuck off You know, if they'd have had that conversation probably It wouldn't have been it wouldn't have passed and they would have won that They won in a similar way in 2019 when, you know, they whipped quite heavily against the another Europe is possible motion Which was to to put Labour you don't buy a more heavily remained you don't buy the conspiracy theory No, the card vote was fixed. I was I was in the room the the pool was saying that on the last show Yeah, I was confused about that also pool was well We'll ask him in person, but he was he was and Clive sort of running on a similar thing actually, which is that The 2019 conference was a stitch up and actually for me the 2019 conference was completely out of control Whatever whatever group had 20 members could propose a dramatic addition to the manifesto And it would pass without Yeah, a ball of sheet and a ball of sheet and foot. I'm not saying these are bad policies or whatever But it's totally true It showed that the cost of entry to basically transforming the policy of the potential next government Basically like 30 people could have a shot which is kind of crazy I'd modify Clive's pitch to that as well because he's saying you want to empower the members to determine policy on a scale that You know on a greater scale one. I'm a little bit skeptical about making policy on the conference floor But two that would for me if if we were going to Say for example, if something is passed at conference it 100 has to appear verbatim verbatim verbatim verbatim in in the manifesto which obviously at the moment it doesn't That the party leader will take leadership in trying to bring the membership with them in whatever position they have So if for example the party leadership don't think it's sensible to put defender and extend freedom of movement in the manifesto They'll have a persuasive conversation with the party membership to explain why that's not going to happen Whereas what you had in in 2019 with basically silence From the leadership and a sort of mysterious, you know, everyone was surprised like are they just going to let this through They're just going to let this through and then you know on all the union saying like, oh, yeah, let's go through And I think there was a some unions let it through Well, I think there was Well, one a bit of a vacuum of leadership And two an understanding that sort of instead of having it out with instead of having a persuasive conversation with the membership We're going to let everything pass and then in the clause Five meeting we'll just modify it. So like instead of having an argument here What we're going to do is let everything pass, which is basically what they did to let everything pass apart from the another european possible motion and then Sort of tried to modify or moderate it out of the manifesto But what that meant is that there were a bunch of issues that they couldn't you know speak confidently about because there was basically a fudge that had gone on I mean, it's kind of crazy, you know that that was I think paul got that completely wrong But then he's obviously got his own bugbears around this stuff I'm into democratizing it in terms of candidates. That's why I want like primaries for every candidate But in terms of do you make do you make policy on the conference floor? I'm much less convinced by I think that's the way that you end up with an incredibly incoherent manifesto If if what you want is a leadership who is you know whittling whittling a manifesto Uber blare, right? Well, what blare didn't democratize the candidate selection? No, he didn't Blare blare, you know, there is a third way De-democratized absolutely every aspect of the Labour Party and that's why it lost five million votes between 97 and 2010 All right, we've got any more questions in there Can I just say there's 1640 of you watching this but there's only 299 thumbs up even if you don't want to go to support.navariumu.com and give us money Even if you don't want to hit the subscribe button hit the bell as well Even if you don't want to follow us on twitter, you know facebook instagram Easiest thing you can do right now is to click the thumbs up button doesn't cost you a penny We'd really appreciate it. It's an early christmas present for michael walker. Yeah Please it means the world. It means the world to me. Um, also Uh, as you know, you're watching navarium you're watching tisky sour This show is only possible because of your kind support. We want to get massive in 2020 really big You know we want to challenge All those we're gonna be big in 2020. We are going to be big in 2020 all those establishment outlets who Are fairly keen to undermine left-wing policies in this country We never will be which is why you need to help us expand and you do that by going to support.navariumu.com Donating the equivalent of one hour's wage a month or giving us a bonus whenever you feel like it. We appreciate it Um, right One more question Yeah, have you got questions Fox or i'll go for it Uh, can you ask candidates on their views on open selections? Yes I want to get every candidate on on this show and I will ask them all About open selections for me. That is a real a real clincher Can I say actually by the way if you like the show go on the tisky sour hashtag on twitter and say that but also at Any of the potential candidates you can say I'd love you to do an environmental interview with michael walker on tisky sour That is a good point because they do respond to you know, people want to be elected as the leader of the party This is when they're going to be the most responsive to grassroots requests Max she has to defend an extent of our media. That's that's a good policy Um, oh nape and drake. This is an interesting question and someone we haven't discussed on this show What do the Blair rights see in jess phillips because she got a nice magazine cover? Um, and that's something that we absolutely well one thing about So people are saying, you know, jess phillips isn't necessarily a Blair right basically because we don't know anything about her politics But what we do know about jess phillips is that she seems to be backed By rupert murdoch. I mean or if you look at where where do those glossy magazine covers appear on the sunday times Um the times and the sunday times so she is clearly someone who is happy to be the leader of the labor party and Try and win favor from rupert murdoch, which is The you know, we're interested in you know interests and strategies on this on this show her Her strategy to be prime minister is going to be to get the murdoch press on side She's always been quite dismissive of and hostile towards the labor membership. So clearly if she has a strategy to to To win a general election it is the tony Blair one It's a look and it's a decent strategy But it was a decent strategy as the Tories were collapsing after being in government for 18 years Would it work against borris johnson? Who's offering massive tax cuts to the billionaire class and oligarchs, etc I don't I don't think I mean it made sense then at least it was a winning strategy now I just think it would be an awful strategy that wouldn't work. That's my view But you're right. I think it's a really telling it's a telltale sign that she's probably not a great person to lead labor Although, of course, we won't be offensive or say anything derogatory about her because Michael walk on i want to interview jess phillips on tisky sour. I think it'd be interesting Um, okay. Thank you so much for watching and thank you for spending 2019 with navara media And we will be back next year bigger and better than ever before Aaron bestani. Thank you for joining me this evening. My pleasure. You've been a can I say michael walker? You've been the mvp of navara media in 2019. I think thank you very much. I'm a great show You shouldn't miss a single episode going. Yeah, let's keep these numbers going up as well I know there's not a general election anymore, but we want to keep going up into the 2000s the free thousands throughout next year Politics won't stop. Um, Merry Christmas. Merry Christmas to you. See you in the new year


you may be thinking when our home price is going to start coming down. Prices that have went up so much, things are so unaffordable. They're actually more unaffordable than we've basically ever seen in history. So we may be wondering, okay, things have to crash at some point. So let me shed some light here. And I want to share this two minute clip from the Brown Harris Stevens CEO, Bess Friedman, who may have an answer for us here. I'm going to share this two minute clip and then give my thoughts. Joining us now is Brown Harris Stevens CEO, Bess Friedman. Bess, good to have you on. And the numbers are getting pretty scary, but I'm not seeing any sign, maybe pockets here and there of any kind of a downturn. If anything, the market is still hot. Yeah, I mean, the market is still very hot because the demand remains high. And that's been really the challenge why prices have not really come down because we don't have enough inventory. And when rates start to come down, we'll get more inventory than prices will start to come down. And like you said, Brian, we don't have those crazy mortgages that we had back then. There are guardrails. So I don't see any bubble anytime soon. The market has been pretty decent given all the headwinds. The prices, rates and tight inventory, we are still doing fairly well overall. But there are a lot of people waiting on the sidelines, buyers and sellers right now. A friend of mine put their home on the market last weekend above asking. They got 11 offers. They were all above the above asking price and a bunch of those were cash. Please help it make sense. Yeah, I mean, look, again, there is no inventory. And so people who want to sell right now, they can get really good prices. And that's a great thing. But some people will not put their homes on the market because they don't want to pay double for their mortgage. But the ones that are doing that are getting really good prices and therefore it might make sense for them to make a lot more money on the sale of their home. They're willing to pay a little bit more in their mortgage. And they're expecting like many consumers are that next year rates will go down and they can do a refi. We have to wait to see what the Fed says tomorrow and Wednesday. They may skip a hike, but they'll probably do it before the end of the year because we're trying to target inflation at 2%. So that's expected. But I think you can do really well if you want to sell right now, you can probably get a really good price for your home. The problem is then you need somewhere to go. You can sell unless you're moving to, I don't know, Gabon, right? You're going to have to pay these inflated, maybe they have housing inflation there as well too. I just wonder who all these buyers are. I guess it's the bank of mom and dad. So if you heard right then what she's saying is that when mortgage rates come down, we're going to see more inventory. She didn't necessarily say why we're going to see more inventory. All I can assume that she's saying is that people who are in these 3% and 4% mortgages right now who are dying, dying to move, they just can't because mortgage rates are so high. All I can assume that she's talking about is that those people that have these lower mortgages are going to put their property on the market when mortgages, when mortgage rates come down and add inventory to the market. But the only problem with what she said is she said that that's going to cause prices to come down. The problem is, is if one of these sellers who is looking to upgrade or downgrade, basically they're looking to buy another home, puts their property on the market, yes that's going to add to inventory. It's going to add to new listing hitting the market. However, they're going to buy the property. The only reason they're selling is to buy another property. When they sell, that means they're also going to buy which takes a property off the market.  We're not going to have higher inventory. We're going to have the same inventory in that instance. Then we're going to have a lot of first time home buyers come in on top of that when mortgage rates come down and take properties off the market without putting a property on the market because they're a first time home buyer. They don't have a house to put on the market to upgrade into or out of, I should say. But at this point with interest rates so high and prices so high, why are prices continuing to go up? You heard Brian Sullivan there in the interview say that his friend put a house on the market. He had, I think he said 11 offers, over asking price, sold for over over asking price. Why is this happening right now? There's a perfect clip to a podcast here that I want to share with you. This guy articulates it perfectly. Here we go. No one can afford to buy a house now. No young kids coming out can buy a house. This is not a stable equilibrium. Furthermore, the mortgages have gone from three, which explains everything, to seven, which explains nothing. Eventually, the seven will start to explain quite a bit. But how long does it take? I mean, just think. The first reflex is, I can't move for God's sake. I can't afford to go from three to seven. So I am going to stay, which means no houses are on the market, which means for the handful of people who have to move, they're actually in a bidding war. And prices stay up. So real estate has never been about three month predictions. It works slowly, but surely. In the end, you pay more because you could afford to. In the end, you will pay less because you can't afford to. House prices will come down in everywhere from Australia. Mentioned that in Australia, it's World War Three instantly. They are more optimistic than Americans. Oh, really? And they hate any idea that they're real estate. Jeremy, by how much? Because I agree. Housing prices, it's an awful issue for people that are looking to get into a home. Are they going to come down by 10% down by 30 or? 30 would be a pretty good guess. Now, as I said, wasn't that a perfect perspective on what's happening in the market? What I really liked that he said and what really hit home and why I wanted to share that clip with you is that he said that, yes, prices are high, interest rates are high, interest rates have doubled and it doesn't make any sense. He did say that he felt prices are going to come down 30% or so, which I find very interesting. I didn't really hear in the podcast how that is fundamentally going to happen. I'm not saying it can't happen, by the way. And keep in mind, if something like that did happen, myself, it would greatly help me because I buy a lot of properties. I have a lot of investors that I represent as clients who would buy a lot of properties. Prices coming down does not hurt my business. Prices going up does not hurt my business. Business is going to happen regardless of what the market's doing. But what I found interesting and the reason I wanted to share that is because of what he said about what's happening right now. We're down to just the people who have to buy, the people who have to sell. Even though prices are higher, there's no inventory because people are locked into their lower rates. The people that have to buy have to sell. They're stuck fighting over whatever few listings are out there on the market. And that's why we're still seeing bidding wars. That's why we're still seeing prices continue to go up because there's nothing for sale. And you say, where are these buyers coming from? Well, they're people that have to buy and sell. And when you get down in the market to just the people who have to buy and sell, then that is rock bottom. You're not going to go any lower in terms of demand. I would fear to say, and I'm sure even if you're a bear on the market, and you feel like things are going to crash and burn, which you've probably been saying for the last two years that prices are going to come down. Most of the people saying that prices are going to come down and prices are going to crash and burn, they've been saying this is going to happen for like two years now. And so I'm sure one of these days they're going to be right. Maybe, maybe not. But the fact remains that I would say that we at least agree on the fact that the only people doing deals right now are people that need to buy and sell and investors. Investors buying sell regardless of the market. People that need to buy and sell, they're going to buy and sell. They got relocated. They lost their job. They got a new job. They had a baby. Their kids went to college. Even people in those situations aren't moving. I know a gentleman, he works at a bank that I do business with, and they bought their dream home in 2020. Since then they had triplets unexpectedly. So now they have more kids and they need more room. They really need one or two more bedrooms, but they're not going to move right now. Even though they really want to and actually need to, they're not going to do it because of interest rates. So even some of the people who need to buy and sell aren't even right now. So we're going to hit four million transactions this year, which is dead even with 2008. 2008, okay? Does it get worse than 2008? Is it going to be worse than 2008? Some people say it's going to be worse than 2008, but we're down to the people that have to buy and sell. Those transactions are not going to go away. And if we do see something downward happen in terms of prices and even fewer transactions, let me tell you something. If prices were to come down and transactions would go up, there's so many people on the sidelines. And if prices actually went down considerably at all, even 10%, you would see a flurry of people. And that's even if we're in the middle of a recession. Even if we see GDP hit less than 2% grow for two quarters in a row, and everything that was supposed to happen this year, now it's supposed to happen next year. Even if this were to happen, there's so much demand. So in the middle of 2008, this is called the Great Recession. This is one of the worst economic, most fearful times in recent history. There were still 4 million people buying properties, okay, even back then. And by the way, there were 4 million listings at the time. There's far less than a million on the market today. So we're in just a much better place in terms of 45% of all homes are owned free and clear. All right, out of the ones that have mortgages, 90% are under 6%. 70%, something% are under 5%. 30% are under 4%. We're just in such a great, and a lot of these people keep in mind, bottom at 2008, 17, 18, 19 prices, they have so much equity in their property. Even if prices came down a good 10%, 20%, 30%, as the gentleman said in the clip, they're still sitting on so much equity, even if the prices went down that much, they've still got considerable equity in their home. So we're just in such a strong, fundamental place when it comes to the housing market. We just got builder numbers out. The builder sediment is down. We saw less housing starts. We saw more permits month over month being pulled, but still less than that time last year, talking about August, more than last August. And so builder sediment, it's come down a little bit. And that's due to interest rates being so high and just the builder's fear of what's to come, how long are interest rates going to stay high? We know they're going to come down. It's just how long are they going to stay this way?   Because remember with builders, everything is pretty much on a, let's just say six to nine month timeframe, because they have to build the house. And a lot can happen in that time. So they're being very careful. A lot of these builders learn great lessons in 2000, very careful. And when you slow down too as a builder, it's a double-edged sword here. It's helping you in many ways, because when you pull back, because you're like, okay, let's just see what the market does because of interest rates, well, that's also controlling inventory. And when you control inventory and you don't just flood the market with inventory, it keeps prices high. 30% of all sales right now are new construction. That's the highest it's been since they've been recording those numbers. And so they know that they're controlling a lot of the sales right now in the inventory, because nobody wants to sell. The existing homeowners aren't selling.  We don't want to get too far overextended. We don't know how long this thing's going to last. We're just going to click at a nice pace here where things are selling at a really nice price. You know what it is?  We're behind 4 million homes in the U.S. You know, we're behind 5 million homes in the U.S. Builders need to build all these houses. Well, the builders are probably saying to their self right now, man, we're in the driver's seat. You know, we're most of the market. We're basically bringing most of the inventory to the market.  So I think that they're building at a pace that they feel really comfortable with. They're not getting overextended. Prices are staying high. They're not flooding the market with inventory. You know, I think they're sitting back smiling from ear to ear like, this is gravy. That's what I think. And hey, as a builder, I think they're playing it just right to be honest with you. That's what I would do if I were a builder. I wouldn't flood the market and overextend myself. And then because you don't know what's going to happen around the corner, we have election year coming. You don't know. Nevertheless, when our home price is going to come down, so you can go out and buy a house. Well, if you look at data and you look at the trends, you'll see every single year from September to January, prices soften quite a bit, actually. Prices come down quite a bit. Days on the market increase. Number of listings increase every time this time of year. You see new listings. You see more new listings, inventory rise, days on the market go up. And you see prices soften. So right now, between now and January, before things pick up again, is going to be the absolute best time to go out there and negotiate, right? And you're seeing it with some builders too. They're kind of giving back to, when they were coming out of the pandemic and everything, they were giving a lot of incentives or, I'm sorry, when interest rates started to go up and the market started to, they were giving a lot of incentives. Then they've kind of pulled back on the incentives. Now you're seeing them come back and start to give incentives again. And so it's kind of a double edge here because you've got the fall and you've got the fact that we're in this 10-year down cycle where we're going to have about the same amount of transactions as 2008. So the fall is normally slow. But then on top of that, we're in the middle of this 10-year down cycle as well. And so that's just two negatives working together that could really work well for you if you're looking to buy a home. In my opinion, I wouldn't wait till 2024. I wouldn't wait till 2004. Now, if you can't afford a house, there's a couple of different options. You can go out and borrow money from a relative. You can get one of these low percent down loans. But the other side of that is, if you don't have any of that available, then your plan, you're under, you're at the step below going out and buying a house. You're at the step of saving up the down payment to go buy a house. But if you're to the stage where you've saved up the down payment, you can afford what the monthly payments are. And when I say afford, you're not overextending.  Put yourself in a bad situation financially where you're spending, of course, they wouldn't let you do a loan if you're doing like 50% on your debt to ratio and your monthly income and expenses and everything. But don't max it out. And if you have to buy a smaller house or just be patient and look for the deals, there's always deals. In every market, there are people who are motivated to sell in every market. And I think this fall and winter is going to be your moment to go out there and get the best deal you can on a house. I just closed on two new constructions out of five. This is the last two of five. I'm renting them all out. I just closed on two. There were all D.R. Horton houses, two in one subdivision, three in another. I just closed on a new office building. I'm moving my office from one office building to another. I paid cash for the office building, did a loan on all five of the new constructions. I'm going to move my business to the new smaller office and rent the bigger office out that we just don't utilize all the space. I'm like, well, if we don't utilize all the space, it's a really nice office. I remodeled the whole thing. Let me rent this and make that monthly income. And we'll just work out of the smaller office that, by the way, is nice. I've got guys in there painting it today, closed on it two days ago and redoing the bathroom. Then I closed on a two-bedroom. It's an older house, two-bedroom, one bath. It's got a nice backyard. It's downtown Foley, which is about 15 minutes from the beach. And we're going to rent that out. I bought that one for $195. And actually, what happened with that one is, me and two of the partners bought it for $150. We put like $25 into it. We normally buy them and flip them. And on this one, I said, let me just buy you guys out. And actually, one of the other partners, we went in and bought the one partner out. And we basically bought it for $195. And we'll rent that out for $1,500 a month, no problem. So I'm buying, I'm buying out here, buying houses. I also have three acres under contract. And I met with the city for the second time this morning to build 42 apartment units on this one. So I've got a builder looking at it next week to give us a quote on what it's going to cost on the construction side. I've already got partners lined up, engineers, architects, the whole nine yards. So this is going to be my first big project. I know you've been following me for a while. You've heard me talk about wanting to go out and do one of these big projects, you know, in the development, build some subdivisions, build some, which I have, I've built homes. I did a subdivision once upon a time back 15 years ago. I've done a few little things. But this is going to be my first like big one where I'm actually building the structure. And with plans to own this for a good five, 10 years, maybe forever, just depends on how the whole thing plays out over time. But anyway, that property is actually like two miles from my house. Alright, so I don't know if you find all that interesting or not. But my point is, is that I'm out here buying properties in this market. I'm buying new construction at retail value prices. You know, we got a deal on the two-bedroom. The office space was definitely retail value. And but I see the value and I see where this thing's going long term. And the great thing is, is that I own these assets. At the end of the day, we own that two-bedroom free and clear, own that all the offices free and clear. I own a bunch of properties free and clear. I've got mortgages on some, but I own a lot of them free and clear. And at the end of the day, I own these assets. If the market goes down and prices come down a little bit, that's okay. I own these assets. If prices go up, I'm going to reap the benefits. Why? Because I own these assets. And so that's the way I look at it, is that I'm not worried about the market going up, down, sideways, left, right. I'm out here building my real estate empire. And that's what you should be doing as well. Anyway, I'm starting to ramble. I don't want to go too long here. I got to jump on a zoom here. I'm doing this 30 listings in the next 90 day challenge. So I've got a real foolproof plan where it doesn't even matter if you're a brand new agent. You can go out there and get 30 listings in the next 90 days. If you do exactly what I'm going to teach you on the zoom call, I'm going to do in nine minutes. So anyway, thanks for watching. And I'll see you on the next video. Let's go.


What's up Titan Nation? It's Jeffers Simmons here. I'm in Dallas at American Indoor. I'm out here getting ready for the season. I'm amped up. I'm ready. Let's get it. So far this all season has been going great. This is probably the best my body didn't feel in a while. My hands, my eye coordination, you know, when I'm doing Padres move. This stuff that I can do here, they're trailing to the field, you know. I'm ready to be more disrupted up front. I'm ready to get off the ball, be able to make more plays in the backfield. We out here doing like conditioning stuff today. We worked his leg really hard. I know Titan Nation about to see something they've never seen before. He's been working really hard. He's going to be really disrupted. Who going to stop us? And that's my mindset going into this season, you know. Who going to stop me? You know, I can't wait to get back to Nashville, get back to work. We're going to get this thing rolling. Tighten up.


So SkyMapper has been running for a few years now. This project creates a whole digital atlas of the southern sky, including very few but some supermassive black holes. So we were really lucky to discover what now turns out to be the most rapidly growing black hole in the whole universe that we've ever seen. It eats about half a sun of material every single day and it's been doing this for quite a long time. It has already acquired the mass of 20 billion suns. We might think that black holes are supposed to be black, that's their name.  But in this case, where it's growing as fast as it potentially can, there is so much matter rushing into its throat that it's creating a lot of friction and heat and it's this heat radiation. That is what we see and this is how we discovered it. But if we put this monster into the center of our Milky Way, it would actually shine bright in the sky, many times brighter than the full moon. So this is a monster. Fortunately it's very far away from us, but we're really excited to find objects like this.


My name is Elizabeth Kreitz, and I'm going to be talking about the security of non-interactive threshold signatures. This is joint work with Mahir Balare, Chelsea Komlo, Mary Mallor, Stefano Tisaro, and Chenzi Zhu. Threshold signatures allow multiple parties to sign a message where some threshold of them is required to sign. They're important for distributing trust because if we have a single key, this represents a single point of failure. However, if we distribute the key amongst multiple parties, then we can tolerate some fraction of corrupt signers. This is important because threshold signatures are being used to secure cryptocurrency wallets. Threshold cryptography more generally is being standardized through NIST, as well as specific schemes like Frost. Our focus in this work is on non-interactive threshold signatures. Consider an example where two out of three parties are required to sign. A user called the leader requests a signature on a message M from these two parties. Each party produces a partial signature, which they then send to the leader. The leader combines these partial signatures into a final signature representing the group. Examples of fully non-interactive schemes include threshold BLS and threshold RSA. But what about discrete log-based schemes, in particular ones that are pairing free? Currently, there do not exist any fully non-interactive schemes. However, for Schnorr signatures, there is the two-round Frost threshold signature scheme. This consists of a single message independent preprocessing, followed by a single signing round. We refer to this as partially non-interactive. There is a scheme for ECDSA, which also consists of a single message dependent signing round. However, it also includes multiple message independent preprocessing rounds, which we do not cover. In this paper, we provide a formal framework for partially non-interactive threshold signatures. We provide a formal syntax, as well as a hierarchy of security notions. Our framework can be applied to BLS, Frost, and other schemes. But why is this framework needed? Prior to this work, there existed no formalization for partially non-interactive schemes. So we provide the first formal syntax. We also show that existing security notions are weaker than what schemes can actually achieve. So we provide a fine-grained security hierarchy with stronger notions of security. We note that the original proof for Frost relied on heuristic assumptions. So we analyze the security of Frost based on our security hierarchy. We also analyze the security of BLS and show that it achieves a stronger notion of security, which is implied by the concurrent work of Young's growth. In this talk, we're going to focus on the Frost scheme. Our concrete contributions are as follows. We present Frost 2, an optimized version of the original Frost scheme that we call Frost 1. Frost 2 reduces the number of exponentiations required for signing from T to 1. We prove the security of both Frost 1 and Frost 2 under the one more discrete logarithm assumption in the random oracle model. This assumes a trusted DKG. We prove the security of Frost 2 together with the distributed key generation protocol proposed in the original Frost paper. This allows any number of corrupt signers up to T-1. In particular, it allows a dishonest majority. Finally, our security hierarchy reveals a separation in the notions of security achieved by Frost 1 and Frost 2. To conclude, both schemes achieve some of the highest notions of security in our framework.