Good morning. Welcome to CMC markets on Friday the 24th of September and it's quick. Look a week at the weekend beginning the 27th of September with me Michael Houston, it's certainly been a bit of a strange week we've seen quite a bit of Volatility quite a bit of movement, but we haven't really gone anywhere. It's all been in the confines of the ranges That we've been in for pretty much the last three to four or three to six months. I Think that for me. I think just highlights how uncertain Investors are about the outlook for markets in general We started off the week very much on the back foot Falling sharply with the FTSE 100 Falling all the way back virtually to 6,800 before rebounding quite strongly Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday and You know, I'm struggling a little bit to sort of really make sense of the news this week because You know concerns about ever grand and nothing new they've been bubbling under the surface for quite some time Um, certainly there's nothing new about supply chain constraints has been nothing new about rising energy prices So for markets to be freaking out on Monday and then Evergrande makes a loan payment on Tuesday and then misses a bond payment on Thursday. It kind of sounds like a Craig Davidson Um We're not really any further forward in terms of whether or not Evergrande is going to make those bond payments Then we were at the beginning of the week in the markets I've done a pretty decent round robin tour of the overall range So what does that mean going forward? Well? I think it's going to be more of the same if I'm honest If I look at the price action with respect to the FTSE 100 that it's best to reprise its role as a perennial party Pooper yesterday By sliding back from its intro day highs to finish in negative territory We've also seen a little bit of weakness today, but if we actually look at the FTSE 100 over the week It looks like to be a fairly positive week which makes a pleasant change But you know, are we any further forward in terms of a directional? Indicator than we were a week ago not really so brings us to Brings us to the S&P 500 Again, we broke below the 50-day moving average Which has helped to support Pretty much the move over the course of the past 12 months And despite brief forays below it once again We are now We now appear to be trying to move back above it I don't have some concerns however with respect to this not moving US markets because we did take out the previous lows We took out these lows through here and these lows through here and even though we have recovered back above them I'd be more confident of further gains if we were able to take out 4500 in terms of a momentum play Which would give me then greater confidence that will move up towards 4600 certainly I think in the wider scheme of things Nothing really much has changed in terms of the overall outlook. Yes, the Fed has become an awful lot more But not not an awful lot more hawkish I think they pretty much signaled their intention that they were going to tilt towards a taper At their latest meeting and they've certainly done that The number of FOMC members who sought a potential for a rate rise in 2022 Increased from 7 in June to 9 This month so certainly it wouldn't take much more For there to be a majority for a 2022 rate hike always assuming of course That we get a decent September payrolls report. So there's an awful lot hanging on The September payrolls report on October the 8th and one thing that did strike me from the press conference on Wednesday was That if progress continues broadly as expected the committee judges a moderation in the place of asset purchases may soon be warranted Which means we could get an announcement in November With potential potential start in December Some people are arguing that we might get a start in November. I Mean, yeah, we might but that only leaves one payrolls report between now and then because the Fed meets on The 3rd of November two days before the October payrolls report and I think to my mind Yes, they will want to taper But I still think that I probably want to see how the November the 5th payrolls report for October plays out First another thing that did strike me was that Powell said that an even half decent report Could be the final piece of the jigsaw for tapering to start in November. So How do you define half decent 400,000 500,000? Less than that would be what another 235 be considered a half decent report, you know, and I think that phraseology half decent Maybe doing an awful lot heavy lifting if we get if we get a disappointing report It's unlikely given the weekly jobless claims numbers that we've we've been seeing but you can never rule anything out and in any case One of the things that we did notice this week is obviously bond yields shifted higher as a consequence of that US Fed meeting the 10 years now back above 1.4 percent first time it's been above there since July So certainly I think the narrative has shifted to It's concerns about Inflation the Bank of England also Indicated that it was concerned about the direction of travel for inflation and as a consequence of that We've seen UK guilt yields spike and I'll show you a chart about that just after I've shown you this this DAX chart It's quite interesting that this DAX chart here. Okay, it did break this line here But what it didn't do is take out those lows there and we managed to hold above the 200 day moving average So, let's just quickly draw in horizontal line through there There we go, so that 15,000 level now becomes a very sort of key line in the sand I think for me when it comes to DAX support that in the 200 day moving average But once again, we didn't really break out of the ranges that we've been in over the course of the past few months And what was it? I think particularly notable is that while European markets and US markets were rebounding from the lows the The K225 was pulling back from significant resistance levels around about 30,700 so not much correlation going on there apart from the fact that it's still stuck in it still stuck in its range So I think we can pretty much expect to see More of the same over the course of the next few days and weeks in terms of the dollar and Seen a little bit of a pullback in the dollar over the course of the past couple of days again That tapering announcement was pretty much priced in To a certain extent and markets appear to be fairly comfortable with it Certainly if you look at what bond yields are doing and what some equity markets are doing at the moment They appear to be going or yesterday they were going in the same direction yields were going up and markets were going up How long that could continue remains to be seen But certainly I think in the context of the moves higher in the dollar What we've seen here is a continuation of the broader range that we've been in over the course of the past few weeks So let's move on to this really sharp ship sharp shift and sentiment that we saw from the Bank of England this week much more concerned about Inflation and you can certainly see that born out in five-year guilt yields That's the move higher on Thursday. If we look at that on the two year We've also seen the two-year move sharply higher as well to their highest levels Since before the pandemic. I mean that's quite a sharp rise in borrowing costs since the beginning of August We've gone pretty much from 0.05% to 0.4% in a space of three months so markets are increasingly Pricing in the prospect of a rate rise from the Bank of England Sometime over the course of the next 12 months on the 10-year yield the even here. We've seen a Slight move to the upside. We've taken out the previous highs to be trading at the highest levels But we've seen pretty much in the last couple of years if I change that to a two-year chart We can see that we haven't quite got above the peaks there But if we look at say for example the two-year horizon borrowing costs is much is much more noticeable at the shorter end of the curve or the all the yield there so That's That's UK borrowing costs what we haven't seen though is a significant similar rise in the value of pound that continues to Remain a little bit on the soft side. We saw it a little bit of a rebound there That could potentially be a bullish reversal on the sterling index I might have to redraw that line there because I didn't draw it correctly through that point there But certainly in the context of these series of lows through here We do have a decent area of support All the way through there so You can see that around the 1,000 level on the CMC sterling index So again, it looks it looks increasingly like a continuation of the range trade that we've been in for several several weeks and months now so That's sort of looking back At the last week or so some good news came from last week obviously UK US transatlantic routes are due to reopen on the 4th of November That's given the airline sector a decent boost this week I AG British Airways up over 15% on the week That certainly will be welcome Rolls Royce is also done very well And certainly it's a welcome boost for the travel and leisure sector Unfortunately, it could be running into a cost of living crisis with energy prices and what have you? concerned about that fuel shortages of the pumps because of a shortage of tanker drives, but it does appear to be some Evidence of natural gas prices are starting to top out. We appear to hit a peak on Monday And these are Dutch natural gas prices and they are now starting to slip back a little so maybe Maybe whisper it quietly the worst is behind us in terms of The gas prices the big question now is whether or not we see shortages of supply of the winter months There's someone who remembers the winter of discontent in 1979. Let's hope not Anyway, as we look ahead to the coming week the main items on the menu are revisions or final revisions of UK second-quarter GDP US second-quarter GDP We've got flash CPI from the European Union on the 1st of October on Friday So that will give us an indication as to whether or not the reading of 3% that we saw in August has gone up Or whether or not That was just base effects pushing that up and we're actually going to come in a little bit lower over the course of The last month or so certainly in terms of What else we've got coming out in the week ahead. We've also got US PCE as well and that is expected to Remain unchanged at around about three point six percent. Now that is the Fed's preferred measure for inflation call PCE Flator as I say that should that should come in around about three point three point six percent We also have University of Michigan sentiment as well I'm So looking looking at the CPI number that is expected or it's estimated to come in at three point three percent Arise from three to three point three percent So which again will obviously have the Hawks of the ECB champing at the bit One of the notable things of the past week or so is the the ECB It's not in any hurry to talk about Moving on interest rates yet core CPI when you when you strip out everything else core CPI Is still below two percent and it's only expected to rise from one point six to one point eight percent So there's a big difference between EU core CPI prices and headline CPI prices and I think the governing council will probably hide behind that So only once the German election is out of the way Due this weekend we can probably expect to sit through Three to six months of naval gazing Amongst German politicians as they try and cobble together some form of coalition and the likelihood is That it will be a three-way affair the favorite Outcome at the moment or the electoral mass in terms of the booking or the betting office Was is it'll be a three-way affair with the FDP the Greens and the SPD So that will be very interesting to see who compromises on what When it comes to coming to a coalition and I think given the wide differences in terms of policy We could find that the the government could well be fairly fragile affair will have to wait and see as to whether or not We get it. We get a quick agreement if anything if it's anything like 2017 We could be waiting until after Christmas, but as I say, we'll have to wait and see so the results for that And should be due out late Sunday night early Monday morning. What does that mean to the euro? Well to be quite honest I think when you're talking about macro when you're talking about macro considerations in terms of the euro I'd much rather look at the charts and at the moment in terms of what the charts are telling me is That We are pretty much at the lower end of the recent range. There's decent supporters around about 116 16 here and hereabouts what we saw yesterday was a potential bullish reversal Which suggests that we could see a little bit of euro strength and a little bit of dollar weakness Over the course of the next few days and weeks And as such we could see a continuation of the range that we've been in over the course of the past two to three months So fairly well supported in and around these sorts of levels here and resistance up here I really don't see any reason to change that overall narrative when it comes to euro dollar What does that mean for cable is pretty much the same here looking at this chart We can see fairly solid support in and around 135 70 136 That 136 level held yesterday and again We saw a very strong bullish reversal on the cable now We could drift back to around about 136 70 but as long as we hold above 136 Then I think the remains though the range will remain intact easy for me to say But that's what the charts are telling me until such times that we get a break below that low Then really I think that's really the sensible way to play it You know you play the price as it is not as you would like it to be and At the moment we've got fairly decent support in and around these series of lows Not only on your a dollar around 16 60 117, but around 135 70 and 136 on cable to our situation changes Then it's unwise to try and Get to try and jump on the back of a break of that range You know just based on just based on previous price history Looking at euro sterling again pretty much same old same old topy above 86 10 Fairly well supported around about 84 88 590 and that is essentially where you where we are you pays your money You takes your choice So that is euro sterling in terms of Brent crude We are now pushing back up against those previous peaks all the way back in July Decent chance. We could get towards $80 a barrel, but at the moment while this level here is capped then Again, I think it's likely that will find decent support in and around this 66 $65 a barrel and 78 $79 a barrel here I don't think that we will want to see prices much above that in the short to medium term Certainly not while we're heading into winter, but certainly the buyers Does appear to be war to be towards slightly firmer? commodity price gold has obviously taken a bit of a hosing on the back of that of the of the Potential inflation concerns and rate rise concerns not especially so We're down two weeks in a row Seem to be stabilizing those are the flash crash lows all the way back in August We quickly recovered off that which suggests to me. There's fairly decent demand for gold in and around $1,700 an ounce if we actually get down that far in terms of The outlook for this week over and above the GDP numbers that we've got for UK and the US on the 30th of September Not really expecting to see much in the way of revisions for either of those two numbers certainly in terms of the the UK 4.8% was the was the number for Q2 not really expected to see much of a revision in that number may see a slight revision higher maybe 4.9 perhaps but You know, it's it's it's really neither here nor there in terms of US GDP We might see a nominal revision here higher here as well from 6.6 to 6.7 percent But again, you know, it's it's likely to be nominal at best. We've got manufacturing PMIs on Friday We already know from flash numbers that they've been slightly softer supply chain constraints are pushing input costs up potentially driving Consumer prices higher and certainly consumer confidence in the UK and pretty much across Europe is starting to fall back over concerns that things are about to get an awful lot more Expensive on the earnings front. There's only two items to really that have really caught my eye Next being one of them when when next last reported in July The shares finished today sharply higher Down to the fact that I hate it when the chart does that it'll come back in in a minute There we go You can see that you see when it reported in July we've made margin We almost retested the record highs which suggests to me that maybe an awful lot of the good news is priced in first half numbers Q2 out performance Sales guidance for the year was raised from 3% to 6% growth Given recent events, I can't help thinking that's optimistic. We also saw Nike and FedEx this week issued profit warnings or lower their guidance on concerns over supply chain constraints, so That could be a factor in next next first half numbers However, I mean and next did announce it reached to deal with gap in the US to manage the US firms online business But then again, that doesn't start till next year. So that's not likely to Have much of an effect, but certainly they raise poor full-year profit guidance by 30 million 750 million so we'll have to wait and see whether or not They are as optimistic over the course of the second half of the year Given current concerns about supply chains. We've also got boohoo Certainly boohoo has been one of those that's Been struggling in recent months and we can see that born out from this chart here Got fairly decent support in and around 250, 250p This is again first half numbers for boohoo Shares are currently down over 25% year to date. So I think an awful lot of the news or the bad news Could well be priced in we'll have to wait and see on the plus side They have announced to deal with our Shia group in the Middle East Which will see boohoo brands in Debenham stores in the Middle East across the region as well. So there could be a boost there Management did warn though that to 2021 was going to be a more cautious here in terms of the outlook with sales growth predicted to slow to 25% so Again, I think this will be more about the outlook than about current trading. So keep an eye on that 250p level on boohoo shares going forward. So I think that's pretty much it for This week once again. Thank you very much for listening ladies and gentlemen I hope you all have a great weekend restful weekend and I will speak to you all same time same place next week Thank you very much


The title of our sermon this morning is Living with Confidence and Dying. Living with Confidence and Dying. We're in 2nd Corinthians, chapter 5, verses 1 through 5. As we are working through this letter, we understand that Paul has been laboring in ministry through extraordinarily trying circumstances with Corinth in Corinth, the church at Corinth, while he's writing from Ephesus. And to this point in our verse by verse exposition of Paul's 2nd canonical letter to the church at Corinth, Paul's difficulties, Paul's disappointments in ministry have been well documented. Paul's apostolic authority is under a scathing attack. His integrity as a man of God has been mercilessly slandered. He has endured tremendous physical pain and suffering. He labors to the point of exhaustion, pouring himself out for the Lord and for the Lord's people. By his own admission, Paul is poor. He's battered. He's weary. He's worn down and weak, constantly bearing a mental and emotional burden of concern for all the churches. But in the face of all this, as we consider those circumstances, in the face of those circumstances, Paul joyfully continues in the work. He presses forward, persevering in the work. His faith is unshaking, unshaken. His resolve is unwavering. He remains determined. He remains encouraged, bold, steadfast, grateful, self-sacrificing, loving. His love for the Lord and his love for the Lord's church is unquestionable. Paul's perseverance, Paul's attitude, Paul's undying joy, Paul's undying hope, that heart attitude is distinctively Christian, especially in the context of trials and sufferings and adversity and difficulty. It's distinctively Christian. It distinctively marks a person that is indwelt by God's spirit. It characteristically marks a person who is living by God-given faith in the Lord Jesus Christ. And we see that here in our context, don't we? Chapter 4 verse 1. We have this ministry by the mercy of God, Paul says. Therefore, we faint not. We do not lose heart. We don't shrink back. We see the mercy of God in it, and we press forward. Chapter 4 verse 7. We are weak. We are frail. We are fragile, perishable, cracked clay pots. But we carry within ourselves a priceless treasure. We may be hard-pressed, but we're not crushed. We don't have anything to complain about, really, at the end of the day, do we? We don't have anything to complain about. We're baffled at times. We're not in despair. We're persecuted, but we're not forsaken. We're not abandoned by God. Knocked down, but never knocked out. We may be delivered to death for Jesus' sake, but it's the life of the Lord Jesus Christ that's being displayed in our daily dying. Chapter 4 verse 14. We know that he who raised up Jesus will also raise us up with Jesus. Chapter 4 verse 16. Therefore, we do not lose heart. We faint not. We do not shrink back. We do not become lazy or apathetic in the work. We do not fall down on our duty, sit down on our duty. Although outwardly, Paul says, we are wasting away. Inwardly, we are being renewed and being sanctified from one degree of glory to another degree of glory, all while we fix our gaze upon the eternal glories of heaven. As we fix our gaze on eternal and unseen things, the afflictions of this life simply shrink into the shadows. The things of this world grow strangely dim in the light of his glory and grace. In chapter 5 verse 1, though we may die, we know that we have a building from God, a house not made with hands eternal in the heavens. Chapter 5 verse 6. So we are always confident. We are always confident. That's Paul's heart attitude in the midst of these trials, in the midst of these difficulties. Through this and through this text, Paul is teaching us what it looks like to live this life against the backdrop of that life which is to come. Do you see? We need to understand. We need to learn that lesson. We need to live this life with the background or against the backdrop of that life which is to come in the context of suffering. In the midst of a wicked and perverse generation, even in the face of death, Paul is confident. Paul is assured in Christ and he presses toward the goal for the prize of the upward call in Christ Jesus. He is confident of the promises of God. He is confident of the word of God. He is confident in the resurrection from the dead. He is confident in future glory, confident in eternal blessings. So confident, in fact, that despite his circumstances, Paul is bold in preaching the gospel. We need a little bit of that boldness, don't we? Don't we? We need a little bit of that. Paul, so confident, he is zealous in his labor for the Lord, not shrinking back, pressing forward in his work for the Lord in his work in ministry. He is determined, resolved to be faithful to his calling. He refuses to shrink back, refuses to settle, refuses to rest in laziness or apathy or discouragement or despair. What Paul knows, the theology that Paul understands has an impact on how Paul lives and Paul lives this life against the backdrop of that life which is to come. That life which is to come intervenes, it invades this life such that this life is impacted by that life which is to come. Even we live in the knowledge of those eternal and unseen realities. They're no less real. Because they may be unseen, they're no less real than the realities of this life. Paul lives in light of those realities. The problem that we face in our context is not that we're asked to do too much. It's not that we serve too much. It's not that we give too much. It's not that we witness too much. It's not that we show up too much. It's not that we have too many things to show up for. That's not the problem that we face. Not the problem of the church in our day. You've heard the phrase that he's so heavenly minded, he's of no earthly good. That's not our problem. That's not our problem. Nobody's missing work because they bought a white robe and they're driven out to Mount Dore to stand on the hill and wait for the Lord Jesus Christ to come back. That's not what people are doing. That's not our problem. The problem that we face is not heavenly mindedness. The problem that we face is worldliness. The problem that we face is worldliness. A worldliness that obscures or conceals or corrupts our view of those things which are eternal and unseen. A love of money, a love of comfort, a love of leisure, a love of pleasure, a love of ease, a love of entertainment, our precious downtime, quote unquote, right? A love of a nice house, nice things, nice cars, nice retirement, nice clothes, nice yard, right? The love of the love of TV, the love of video games, that phone that's incessantly in your hand, right? The love of binge watching Netflix episodes, the love of YouTube or Facebook, internet searches for who knows what, right? Sleeping, the love of sleep, it's nothing more than a self-indulgent love of this world when those things gain too much of your time and attention, amen? It is a self-indulgent love of this world when the things of this world gain too much of your time and attention. When they gain too much of your time and attention, those things become idols. You become idolatrous, right? Worldliness. That's the difficulty that we face in this context. Worldliness. Worldliness will cool your love for Christ. Worldliness will cool your love for Christ, because friendship with the world is hatred toward God. Whoever wants to be a friend of this world makes himself an enemy of God. Worldliness will cool your love for Christ. Worldliness will stunt your growth and maturity in Christ. Are you not making progress in a Lord? Not making progress in a knowledge of His will and an understanding of His wisdom?  You're an easily offended temper tantrum toddler who still makes a mess in his pants down then, right? You can't understand the deeper truths of God, and you're content with that. Worldliness has stunted your growth and maturity in Christ. Worldliness will stifle your zeal, will throw wet blanket on your zeal. You know, I just simply don't have the time. I don't have the time. Don't have the energy. Don't want to, right? Don't want to. Worldliness will rob you of God's wisdom, because essentially, worldly wisdom is foolishness. Worldliness is equivalent to foolishness. Worldliness in the heart will lead to a mere worldly sorrow over sin. Enamored by the world, we forget how to be ashamed, right? We forget how to be ashamed and guilty over our sin. We forget how to blush over our sin. We forget how sinful, exceedingly sinful, sin is. Worldliness in the heart will lead to a mere worldly sorrow over sin. Worldliness is a love of self, and when it's a love for God, a love for God is what produces godly sorrow. Godly sorrow over sin. Worldliness, being a love of self, will lead to a mere worldly sorrow over your sin. Can you hear the word of God preached? Can you read the word of God and persist in a lack of conviction over sin? Worldliness will render inaudible the call of God to suffer for Christ. Heber's chapter 13 verse 12. Jesus also said that he might sanctify the people with his own blood suffered outside the gate. Therefore, the Lord calls us, right? Therefore, let us go forth to him outside the camp, bearing his reproach. Why? Because we have no continuing city here, but we seek the one to come, the one who's builder and maker. You can try as you might to cover it up with a Sunday morning routine. You wrap it in all the trappings of religiosity, but worldliness will bear bitter trials. You can try to cover it up with a Sunday morning routine. You can try to cover it up with a Sunday morning routine. You but worldliness will bear bitter fruit in your life and you know it. If you have any discernment whatsoever, you can sense, can't you, in your own flesh the effects of worldliness on your life? One pastor said this, the problem, the problem is not that professing Christians are retreating from the world, spending half their days reading Scripture and the other half stinging about their pleasures in God all the while indifferent to the needs of the world. That's not the problem, right? The problem is that professing Christians are spending 10 minutes reading Scripture and then half their day making money and the other half enjoying and repairing what they've spent it on. Where is the person whose heart is so passionately in love with the promised glory of heaven that he feels like an exile and a sojourner on the earth? Where is the person who has so tasted the beauty of the age to come that the diamonds of the world look like baubles and the entertainment of the world is empty in vain and the moral causes of the world are too small because they have no view of eternity. Where is this person? He's not in bondage to TV watching or eating or sleeping or drinking or partying or fishing or sailing or pulsing around. He is a free man in a foreign land and his one question is this, how can I maximize my enjoyment of God for all eternity while I am an exile on this earth? Paul is giving us his answer. Live this life against the backdrop of that life which is to come. Fix your gaze on eternal and unseen things. Put your hand to the plow in this life, point the plow toward heaven and don't look back, right? As Paul said, he who plows should plow in hope, cultivate your hope in Christ. What's the opposite of worldliness? What's the opposite of worldliness? Godliness, that's right. Godliness. Deny yourself. Take up your cross daily and follow him. Devote yourself to Christ in the means of grace. Walk worthy of the calling with which you were called. Fulfill your ministry, the work to which you were called. Preach the gospel. Serve the body.   Serve your brothers. Love your brothers in the church. How are we motivated to do that? How are we motivated to do that? Paul is giving us the answer right here in our text. Right, chapter 4, verse 18. While we do not look at the things which are seen, but at the things which are not seen, for the things which are seen are temporary. They're passing away, but the things which are not seen are eternal. Furthermore, furthermore, chapter 5, verse 1, for we know that if or when our earthly house, this tent is destroyed, we have a building from God, a house not made with hands eternal in the heavens. Eternal in the heavens. Where is your treasure this morning? Where is your treasure this morning? Jesus said that where your treasure is, there your heart will be also. If your heart is preoccupied with unseen and eternal glories in heaven, then the only thing that's going to satisfy your heart are those eternal glories laboring toward them, right? Pressing on. Your effort, your labor, your love will be preoccupied with the work of heaven on this earth. If your heart is too little occupied with the things of heaven, and you need to take a lesson from the Apostle Paul this morning and cling to that hope that we have as an anchor for our soul, right? Don't lose heart. Look to these eternal realities. Don't shrink back. Press forward in the call. Don't abandon your hope for the things of this world. The things of this world are passing away. Those eternal and unseen things will last forever. Labor on in confidence. Even the face of death, Paul says, we have no continuing city. We seek the one that is to come. Paul is giving us an eternal perspective, isn't he? And we need an eternal perspective to live for him in this day and age. We need to catch a glimpse of that, right? How we think, what we know will impact how we live. We should live our life against the backdrop of that life, which is to come. Paul has great confidence, great confidence. And it's that confidence in Christ that presses him forward in ministry, even despite tremendously difficult circumstances. The Paul lends fuel in our text for that confidence with three points that I want you to see in your worship folder. On your notes page, you'll see them there. One, there is confidence in the face of death. Confidence in the face of death, verse one. Two, confidence in the hope of glory, confidence in the hope of glory, verses two through four. Lastly, confidence in the promises of God, verse five, confidence in the promises of God. First, consider with me confidence in the face of death, confidence in the face of death, verse one. For we know, we know that if our earthly house, this tent is destroyed, we have a building from God, a house not made with hands eternal in the heavens. In verse one, Paul makes a statement here that grounds his confidence. It provides the basis for his hope, even in the face of death. That statement or that foundation is comprised of three truths here in verse one, the certainty of faith, the certainty of death, and the certainty of God's promise, the certainty of faith, the certainty of death, and the certainty of God's promise. Paul asserts his argument in verse one first with the certainty of faith, with the certainty of faith, knowing that he could literally die any moment in the course of his ministry, laboring in ministry with a shadow of death as a near continual companion. Paul expresses great confidence with the words that begin verse one, we know, we know. This is not what we guess, this is not what we think, this is not what we suppose, this is not even what we hope for, we know, we know. We do not look at the things which are seen, but the things which are not seen. For we know that if our earthly house, this tent is destroyed, we have a building from God, a house not made with hands, eternal in the heavens. But Paul here is speaking of death, speaking of death, the destruction of our earthly bodies. And he begins with a powerful statement of faith that expresses that our death is not the end. It's simply a beginning. It's a transition. The author of Hebrews describes mankind in chapter two, as those who through fear of death were all their lifetimes subject to bondage. In other words, people fear death, whether they acknowledge it or not, and they live in bondage to that fear. John Owen said this, all mankind is condemned as soon as born. Do we understand that? As soon as born, the sentence has already been determined. The verdict is already in. Life, Owen says, is a reprieve. It's a suspension of execution. And if during that time a pardoned be not effectually sought out, the sentence will be executed according to the severity of justice. Under this law, men are born. This yoke, they have pulled on themselves by their apostasy from God. In response to that, Paul says in 2 Corinthians chapter five, verse 11, knowing therefore the terror of the Lord we persuade men. It is a terror to die outside of Christ. Whether you here today acknowledge it or not, it is a fearful thing to fall into the hands of a living God. You will face the terror of almighty God. Owen continues, there are indeed a thousand ways whereby this fear is for a season stifled in the minds of men. Some live in brutish ignorance, never receiving any full conviction of sin, judgment or eternity. Others, they put off these thoughts of their future state, resolving to shut their eyes and rush into it when they can no longer avoid it. Some please themselves with vain hopes of deliverance, some religious emotions, some superstitious little prayer, some mass, some doing of this or doing of that, vain hopes of deliverance. And even though they themselves have vain hopes of deliverance, they do not know how or why they should be partakers of it. In other words, they don't even take the time or the energy or their mental capacity to work it out. Why is it that I believe I will face God in judgment or escape the wrath of God to come? How many people do you talk to witnessing that will say they're a shirt of heaven?  Well, how do you know? I just know. Oh, vain hopes of deliverance, vain hopes of deliverance. Owen says, but let men forgo these helpless shifts and suffer their innate light or their innate understanding to be excited with means of conviction. And they will quickly find out what a judgment is formed in their souls concerning death.  God has said, hasn't he? Vengeance is mine. I will repay. It is a fearful thing to fall into the hands of the living God. The Paul steps into that uncertainty, steps into that innate fear of all mankind in chapter five, verse one, and he says with the certainty of faith in Christ for believers. Notice he doesn't say for, we all know. He says we know for those who put their faith and trust in Christ for those that have turned from sin. Paul says for those in the certainty of faith, we know, we know. Second Corinthians chapter four, verse 14, we know that he who raised up the Lord Jesus will also raise us up with Jesus. Romans chapter eight, verse 28, we know that all things work together for good to those who love God, to those who are the called according to his purpose. Second Timothy chapter one, verse 12, I know, Paul says, I know whom I have believed and am persuaded that he is able to keep what I have committed to him until that day. I know, Paul says. First John chapter three, verse two, we know, we know that when he is revealed, we shall be like him, for we shall see him as he is. First John chapter four, verse 13, we know that we abide in him and he in us because he has given us of his spirit. Second Corinthians chapter five, verse one, we know that if we die, we have a building from God, a house not made with hands, eternal in the heavens. What's the certainty of faith, isn't it? That faith fueled by what Paul knows, what we understand in the scriptures, what the Bible teaches, the promises of God, which are glorious. We know why? Because God's word is inviolable, just as his character is inviolable. God, who cannot lie, told us so. And you could take that to the bank, amen? We can trust that God is faithful. Paul speaks here with a certainty, a certainty that is the expression of his faith. These aren't mere platitudes to the apostle Paul. These aren't mere platitudes. These truths drive Paul in ministry. These truths should drive you and I to labor in this life for the sake of Christ, for the cause of Christ. When Paul stands up to preach the gospel before a brood of vipers, when he faces the persecution, the slander, the physical assaults, the stoning enlistra that left him for dead, Paul speaks with certainty. For the sake of Christ, Paul says, I know him. I know him. I know the power of his resurrection, the fellowship of his sufferings being conformed to his death. I know. You and I, brother and sister, can say we know because of the promises of God, because of what Christ has done. God, the Son, who gave his life on Calvary's tree to save you and me, to forgive us of our sin, to justify us, to cleanse us. We know. And just as sure as Jesus Christ has been raised from the dead in power, God will raise us up together with him. Paul's great confidence grew in the fertile soil of these glorious truths that Paul preached. And such confidence, even in the face of death, is built on a sure and assured faith in the truths that we profess. This is the certainty of faith, the certainty of faith. Notice with me next. Paul speaks with such confidence, even though death is inevitable, even though death is inevitable. Consider with me the certainty of death.  That word may also be translated when Paul is clearly speaking here of the death of believers. And with the exception of those believers who are alive and remain at the coming of the Lord Jesus Christ, death is a certainty for every person. Hebrews chapter nine, verse 27, it is appointed for men to die once and after this the judgment. Paul is essentially saying this. In the context of carrying about in the body, the dying of the Lord Jesus, verse 10, in the context of being delivered to death daily, verse 11, in the context of our outward man continuously wasting away and perishing, verse 16, we know that if we die, if this earthly tent is destroyed, dismantled, pulled down, then we have this glorious promise of God and that certainty of death further communicated to the words that Paul uses to describe what it's clearly a reference to, to reference to our human bodies and the words that Paul uses to describe those bodies further communicate the certainty of death. He describes it as our earthly house, this tent, literally our earthly house of the tent is how it's phrased in the Greek. In other words, this earthly tent we live in, this earthly tent we live in, our weak frail bodies described as common clay pots in verse seven described as continuously wasting away in verse 16 are now described as tents in chapter five, verse one. You can't get more temporary than a tent, can you? More transient than a tent. Paul was a tent maker, so Paul would know. Paul knew how to make tents. He knew what their weaknesses were. He knew how weak their structure was. He knew what they were made of. He knows that they're weak. Tent might be fine for camping, right? When the rains descend, when the floods come, when the winds blow and beat against that tent, when the bear decides to join you, that tent is going to fall, isn't it? Doesn't afford much protection. You become essentially a fruit roll-up in that tent when the bear comes. It's simply not built to last, right? A tent is easily pulled down. Now many of you don't understand camping. I can't roll the time as a kid, but now we prefer to glamp. You're in an expensive motor home in a cabin with AC. It's not camping, right? Camping involves a tent, a tent. Furthermore, Paul goes on to say that it's earthly. It's another way of saying that it's mortal. It's going to die. It's made of dust, brought about through human means. It's earthly. Paul describes it in 1 Corinthians chapter 15 as natural. It is subject to decay, subject to corruption. It is sown in corruption, Paul says, sown in dishonor, sown in weakness. Paul says there that Adam was a man made of dust, and so are we who bear the image of the man of dust. Genesis chapter 3 verse 19, for dust you are, and to dust you shall return. We are earthly, mortal, dying, perishing. The curse in Genesis chapter 3 verse 19 speaks of the certainty of death, the certainty of death. Turn with me quickly to Ecclesiastes chapter 9. Ecclesiastes chapter 9, chapter Proverbs there in your Old Testament. Ecclesiastes chapter 9. Begin with me in chapter 8 and look at verse 10, chapter 8 verse 10. Here Solomon records, then I saw the wicked buried who had come and gone from the place of holiness and they were forgotten in the city where they had so done. This also is vanity because the sentence against an evil work is not executed speedily, therefore the heart of the sons of men is fully set in them to do evil. I want you to think about that for just a moment. God is patient, long suffering. In the days of the flood, he said that his spirit would not always strive with man forever and he gave them a hundred and twenty years of the preaching of Moses, a man of righteousness, preacher of righteousness in which they heard the word of God preached and refused to repent. God is patient, God is long suffering. But don't take his patience to mean a tolerance for your sin. There is a time of recompense, a time of retribution coming. Verse 11, because the sentence against an evil work is not executed speedily, therefore the heart of the sons of men is fully set in them to do evil. When you were a child and you did something wrong and you got a pop on the wrist, a pop on the hand, a pop on the rear end, that sentence against your crime so to speak executed speedily kept you from doing it at that moment again. Soon as mom or dad turned their eyes, you're right back at it. But for that moment, but because in this life the judgment against sin isn't executed speedily, those outside of Christ, those with no heart for the Lord, those who are bent, hell bent on their sin, they set their heart, fully set their heart to do evil. Verse 12, though a sinner does evil a hundred times and his days are prolonged, yet I surely know that it will be well with those who fear God, who fear before him. In other words, it's not going to be well with those who do not fear him. But it will not be well with the wicked, nor will he prolong his days which are as a shadow because he does not fear before God. Look at chapter nine verse one, chapter nine verse one. For I considered all this in my heart so that I could declare it all that the righteous and the wise and their works are in the hand of God. People know neither love nor hatred by anything they see before them. All things come alike to all. One event happens to the righteous and the wicked. What is that event? Speaking of death, the certainty of death, to the good, the clean and the unclean, to him who sacrifices and him who does not sacrifice. As is the good, so is the sinner, he who takes an oath as he who fears an oath. This is an evil in all that is done under the sun that one thing happens to all truly the hearts of the sons of men are full of evil. Madness is in their hearts while they live and after that they go to the dead. However, look back with me at second Corinthians chapter five verse one. Even though that's the case and for the just and the unjust alike death awaits. Paul said in verse one, we know, we know that of our earthly house this tent is destroyed. We have a building from God, a house not made with hands eternal in the heavens. And notice that Paul doesn't look forward to the certainty of death with fear here. There's no fear communicated here. He doesn't look at death here as having any, any type of power. He doesn't even look here really at death as a negative. Any fear or any negativity associated with a certainty of death is swallowed up by the certainty of God's promise here. We have a building from God, a house not made with hands eternal in the heavens. Can you see how that statement vanquishes the fear of death? Right? There's no fear. There's no negativity here. Paul looks forward to that promise of God, looks forward to it. We have a glorious building from God, a house not made with hands eternal, undemissioned, unchanging with the eons, with the millennia eternal in the heavens. Paul said, for me to live is Christ and to die is gain. To die is gain. Notice that he says, does not say there in verse one, if I am destroyed. He doesn't say if I am destroyed. He says, if our tent is destroyed, what happens to Paul at death? He is ushered into the presence of the Lord Jesus Christ. To be absent from the body is to be present with the Lord. It's a doorway. It's a transition. Death is not the end. Death is simply a beginning. Death is a transition. Death brings about gloriously the fulfillment of God's promises in redemption. He has promised to raise us and to glorify us. All that we have been longing for since the Lord saved us is fulfilled in our death. Think about that, right? Don't you long to be in heaven with the Lord? Don't you groan in this earthly tent to be present with the Lord, free from sin, able to worship Him unfettered by the flesh, unfettered by sin? That which we long for is fulfilled in death. Notice the certainty, the certainty of God's promise. It says there, we have, we have a building from God, right? We have there, that verb is present, active, indicative. It means that it is ongoing. The promises of God are so certain that Paul speaks of them as a present possession. We have a building from God, a house not made with hands, eternal in the heavens. What is it that we have? It's not a tent. We don't have a tent. We don't have an earthly house. We have, notice the contrast, a building from God, not brought through human means, not made with human hands, not like an earthly house, but a house not made with hands. A spiritual body, Paul says, raised in incorruption, raised in glory, raised in power. This is an obvious reference here to our glorified body. Don't get confused by the reference to house or to building. It's not a literal mansion. It's not a literal house. Otherwise, the contrast here is ruined, right? He's not speaking of a house or a building. The fact that this is referring to our glorified body is further seen in the clothing references of verse two, contrasted with the notion of nakedness in verse three. What's being spoken of here is our glorified body, right? Our heavenly habitation. The first man may have been made of the earth, made of dust, but the second man is the Lord from heaven. And as it is with the heavenly man, so also are those who are heavenly. At the resurrection of the dead, we shall bear the image of the heavenly man. John says, we shall be like him, for we shall see him as he is, right? We shall have a glorified body like his. We'll talk about that more next week. We shall have a glorified body like his glorified body. Notice also in the text, the spiritual body, our glorified body, this building from God will never be destroyed. It is eternal in the heavens, unlike the tent that we currently live in. Our glorified body will be indestructible, permanent. It will never wear out. Look forward to that. It will never wear down. No knee replacements, no hip replacements, no valve replacements, no replacements, no replacement parts necessary. Never, ever riddled by disease, sickness or decay, never growing old, never dying. That which is temporary, this tent is simply replaced by that which is eternal. Now when you're in the tent, when you're in the tent and the rain descends, the floods come, the winds begin to blow, beating against that tent, isn't it nice to know that you will leave the wilderness and go to your house? Nice to know, isn't it?  Notice lastly, the building, that house made without hands, described here specifically by Paul in verse one as from God, from God. It's a house whose builder and maker is God. Chapter four, verse 14 refers to God who raised up Jesus and will also raise us up with him. In chapter one, verse nine, Paul instructs that we should not trust in ourselves, but in God who raises the dead. God raises the dead. When God raises the dead in the first resurrection, there will be glorified bodies for those who partake of the first resurrection. We'll talk about that more next week. However, I want you to see something from the rest of scripture. We understand this resurrection to be a work of the triune God, not simply God the Father, but it's a work of the triune God. God the Son says in John chapter six, verse 39, this is the will of the Father who sent me, that of all he has given me, I should lose nothing, but should raise it up at the last day. The Son, God the Son, will raise it up at the last day. It is said of God the Spirit in Romans chapter eight, verse 11, but if the Spirit of him who raised Jesus from the dead dwells in you, and he who raised Christ from the dead will also give life to your mortal bodies through his spirit who dwells in you. The work of resurrection, the work of our glorified bodies is a work of the triune God. Our resurrection bodies, if you think about it this way, our resurrection bodies, our glorified bodies are given as a gift from God the Father that he is pleased to grant through God the Son in the life-giving power of God the Spirit. DePaul here emphasizes the certainty of faith, the certainty of death, and the certainty of God's promise. All believers, all believers should live with the hope in God for a glorified and eternal body. Such a glorious hope, such an important hope, amen? There are many, many questions left to answer. We'll have to tackle those as we continue through our tech next week. However, one question I want to leave you with now is when? When does all this take place? When does this happen? Some may take Paul in verse one to mean that we receive resurrected or glorified bodies when we lose the tent that we're in. When our earthly tent is destroyed. Is that the case? Flip back just a few pages to the left. Look at 1 Corinthians chapter 15. 1 Corinthians chapter 15. And look there at verse 50. 1 Corinthians chapter 15 verse 50. Paul again instructing the Corinthian church, he says in verse 50, now I say this brethren, that flesh and blood cannot inherit the kingdom of God, nor does corruption inherit incorruption. Do you see the problem that Paul is elucidating there? Verse 51. Behold, I tell you a mystery. We shall not all sleep. Not all will die. There will be some who are raptured, right? We shall not all sleep, but we shall all be changed. Now what a glorious thought that is, that we're all glorified together, right? We're all glorified together, not at different times. All together we're going to receive that glorious gift, right? That's just a joyous to me. With my brothers and sisters, we're going to all face that together. Verse 52. In a moment, in the twinkling of an eye, that quick, right? In the time it takes you to blink your eyes, at the last trumpet, for the trumpet will sound, and the dead will be raised incorruptible. What does it mean there that the dead will be raised? Aren't the dead already with Christ to be absent from the body and to be present with the Lord? So what does it mean there that the dead will be raised? And speaking of their glorified bodies, their bodies will be raised, right? Incorruptible. Their bodies will be raised incorruptible. This is the glorified body. What does he say at the end of verse 52? And we shall be changed. We shall be changed. There is, here, the last trumpet is the coming of the Lord Jesus Christ. This is when that takes place. It takes place at the coming of the Lord. When is the coming of the Lord? It's at the last day, at the last trumpet. So there is, what that tells us is that there is an intermediate state. There's a state where Paul says, or Paul describes us as being unclothed. Unclothed. Notice, we long to be closed. We long for this change. The last trumpet is when the Lord returns. That's when we are raised. First, that's chapter 4, verse 16 says this. For the Lord himself will descend from heaven with a shout, with the voice of an archangel and with the trumpet of God. And the dead in Christ will rise first. Then we who are alive and remain shall be caught up together with them in the clouds to meet the Lord in the air. And thus we shall always be with the Lord. Happens at the return of the Lord Jesus Christ. Look at 1 Corinthians 15, verse 53. Paul says, this corruptible must put on incorruption. To be fit for heaven, so to speak, be glorified with the Lord Jesus Christ. This corruptible must put on incorruption. This mortal must put on immortality. So when this corruptible has put on incorruption, and this mortal has put on immortality, then shall be brought to pass the saying that is written, death is swallowed up in victory. Oh, death, where is your sting? Oh, Hades, where is your victory? The resurrection of our body is the proof, and is the fulfillment, full fulfillment, that Christ has defeated death. Our resurrection is a part of that glorious fulfillment.  When Jesus Christ was raised from the dead in power, he defeated death. But it is further fulfilled, more fully consummated in our own resurrection when we are glorified in him. When we are glorified in him, then shall be brought to pass the saying that is written, death is swallowed up in victory. Verse 56, the sting of death is sin, and the strength of sin is the law. But thanks be to God who gives us the victory through our Lord Jesus Christ. Christ will raise us from the dead in the same victory he won over death at his resurrection. Notice with me though Paul's exhortation in light of these truths, again, what we know, what we understand, what we believe should impact the way that we live. We should live our lives against the backdrop of that life which is to come. He says in verse 58, therefore my beloved brethren, be steadfast, immovable, always abounding in the work of the Lord, knowing that your labor is not in vain in the Lord. And that's coming from the Apostle Paul. If there was anyone on the planet in history other than the Lord Jesus Christ himself who had caused, if it will, to shrink back from what he faced, it would be the Apostle Paul, right? The sufferings that he endured. And here's Paul exhorting us in light of these truths, be steadfast, immovable, always abounding in the work of the Lord, knowing that your labor is not in vain in the Lord. It will be worldliness that keeps you in this context from abounding in the work of the Lord. Are you abounding? Here's a warning. We know from the text of Scripture that the bodies of unbelievers will also be raised. All people, the just and the unjust, will be raised in the last day. Daniel says, some raised to everlasting life, some to shame and everlasting contempt. Jesus said in John chapter 5 verse 28, the hour is coming in which all who are in the graves will hear his voice and come forth.   The Lord says that you will go away into everlasting punishment, where the fire is never quenched, where the worm never dies, where there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth. It is a fearful thing to fall into the hands of the living God.    It's just that you go into the dust and that's all there is to you. No, the Bible says that you go away into everlasting punishment, everlasting punishment. The smoke of your torment rises forever and ever. God has given assurance of this by raising the Lord Jesus Christ from the dead. He has appointed a day on which he will judge the world by that man whom he has raised. There is no other, no other name given on men under heaven by which we must be saved. Flee the wrath to come. Trust Christ. Put your faith in him. Give yourself and trust yourself to him to save you. Don't trust that it's just simply going to work out in the end somehow.  Don't think that you can live it up now and at some point in the future. It's the Lord who opens eyes. It's the Lord who unstopped death ears. It's the Lord who changes hearts. It's the Lord who brings the dead to life again. Don't provoke or tempt the Lord. Don't be presumptuous.   For the one who has placed his faith and trust in Christ, my brothers and sisters, I have not seen nor ear heard nor entered into the heart of man the things which God has prepared for those who love him. That reality should fuel our confidence in the face of death. Set your mind on things above, not on the things that are of the earth. Paul speaks so beautifully, so passionately about our future hope, about living with our eyes fixed on that hope. He does so in large part because Paul speaks from the depth of his own experience. Paul knows. Paul knows what it means to suffer. He faced tremendous difficulty in ministry. Paul knows what it means to face the temptation to shrink back from wholehearted devotion to Christ. Paul, in that context, points us to our hope. Live your life now against the backdrop of that life which is to come. A steadfast hope in these things will breach the walls of spiritual depression, right? It will fire the zeal of gospel preaching. It will put your apathy to death. It will cast off the weights and entanglements of this world when you look to those things which are eternal and unseen. It will help you run with endurance the race that is set before you. Hope in those promises will fuel your joy. Hope will fuel boldness, will fuel courage in the face of difficulty or even death. Hope will motivate your obedience. Hope will induce holiness and holy living. Hope can help you put death, put to death your sin. Peter says, rest your hope fully upon the grace that is to be brought to you and the revelation of Jesus Christ as obedient children not conforming yourselves to the former lusts as in your ignorance, but as he who called you as holy, you also be holy in all your conduct because it is written be holy for I am holy. Listen to this from Paul in Ephesians chapter 1 verse 15. Therefore, Paul says, I also after I heard of your faith in the Lord Jesus and your love for all the saints, I do not cease to give thanks for you, making mention of you in my prayers, that the God of our Lord Jesus Christ, the Father of glory may give to you the spirit of wisdom and the revelation and the knowledge of him, that the eyes of your understanding being enlightened that you may know what is the hope of his calling, what are the riches of the glory of his inheritance in the saints and what is the exceeding greatness of his power toward us who believe according to the working of his mighty power, which he worked in Christ when he raised him from the dead and seated him at his right hand in the heavenly places far above all principality and power and might and dominion and every name that is named not only in this age, but also in that which is to come. Amen. My Lord, we need to pray, enlighten the eyes of our understanding that we may know what is the hope of his calling to the one who is far above all principality and power and might and dominion and every name that is named not only in this age, but also in that which is to come. We give thanks and praise and honor and glory and worship. Amen.


I have this container of water and I will push this container to the left. That means I will apply a force on it to the left as a result of which it will move. And it does. Now I will pull this container to the right and the container starts moving to the right. That means I am applying a force in the right direction. Now can the container be moved to the right if I apply a force to the left? Think about it. No, right? That's not possible. So this shows that in order to move an object in a certain direction, it is necessary, it is important to apply a force on it in that direction. So this shows that force has a direction. Now look at this empty bucket. Let's say you are holding this empty bucket.  Again, you have to apply some force, right? In which case will more force be required? I am sure you will say that more force is required to lift a bucket full of water than an empty bucket. Now this shows that force also has a magnitude.