It is the touch line here on Y244, Robert Rosoro is my name on this beautiful Saturday afternoon and on this segment we are going to be looking at Kenyan football. It's actually an eye on Kenyan football. We are still with Max Oluwaseke, my co-host here and also Jenin Azia for the first time is former Gormaya player Mike Otien. Mike, welcome to Y244, the touch line. How you doing? Doing very well, thank you very much for having me. It has been a big week when it comes to the sports industry in this Kenya and the world. What has been your biggest highlight of the week when it comes to sports? It was, I don't know if we can call it a low light or a highlight, but poster rangers overwhelmed Gormaya when they were 10 men and they lost their 11th man in the third minute. I think poster rangers just wanted to show some palms of maulu that you did a mistake reaching us for Gormaya and you need to make a return. But it was a good result for Stan Yokumbi, mumarambesta's tactician, I think recording his first win since taking charge. So Mike played for Gormaya back in the 90s, he joined Gormaya in the late 1995 and he played with the likes of Zedekaziko Otieno, the current KCB coach played with Dr. Dan Shikanda, who is now the current FC Leopards chairman. But those are my words, let's listen to his story, a bit of his heydays when he played for Gormaya. Mike, it is your time. How was Gormaya for you back when you played for Kogalu? When I started following Gormaya around 1987, when the Mandela Cup, just beside that it was the team that led on to Harambesta, so I've been following Gormaya since I was a young boy and that is what really attracted me. Since 1987 I really really wanted to be with the likes of Peter Dao, David Ochieng, they really did well for Gormaya and also the national team. So as a young boy I started then, I wanted to join Gord Junior, which I did at a young age of about 15 and then I got close to the team and eventually after going to school in Musingu High School, I came back and then joined the senior ranks. When I was part of the team, Gormaya was going through a little bit of a cycle, a low cycle because sometimes we would not get the allowances, but the fan following was always there and everybody was really engaged and wanted the team to do well. But it was one of those cycles. Along with people like Dan Ogada, I remember when we were waiting for the bus here in Gilhouse and we would share the challenges that everyone was going through, maybe he had not paid some of his obligations at home but he would still show up and represent the club. So with that type of history players always engaged and even if there's some challenges the players always show up and keeping the tradition. I recall I was part of the young group that was joining the club myself, Brian Okumu, we were just barely joining the club and then Leslie Okudo came in and infused some professionalism in the club. Which is also part of the broader challenge that we have with Kenyan football because we lack that professional infusion which requires planning, requires a significant amount of investment. We also did not have, the previous team had sponsorship from a casino, one of the casinos here in Nairobi but we didn't have an actual sponsorship during that time. So significant challenges would travel to Mohoroni to play the matches there and we wouldn't have a proper kit for proper doctors kit of medical kit but those are part of the challenges with Kenyan football. And it must be sad for you considering that those challenges you went through back then are still going on 30 years later. It is because when you look at how the Americans developed their football since 1996 they didn't have an actual football program but since 96 they featured in the World Cup. They've been annually featuring to presenting their continent which is Konkakafa I believe. So when you look at that we have a tradition that goes through the 60s and 70s but yet they started their program only 30 years ago and I think when you look at the FIFA ranking we're only at 104 and they are much higher position. So those type of things I think something like infusing the professionalism, those challenges for the players we have to clean that up so that we can improve our football. So you played for Goma for a span of 4 years about 2 years then I left and went to university in California. And just like you indicated unlike today in the past there was no concrete sponsorship there was no broadcast deal. Do you think those factors absence of the two contributed to some players not realizing their dreams because you see currently we have a broadcast deal when you playing your game is getting showcased, televised on TV. If you are interested in securing your services overseas in case you show extreme talent can get to notice you. And like in the past do you think those two hindered some of you people realizing your dreams of featuring for overseas clubs for your favorite outfits abroad. You're absolutely right because that type of showcase is what you need. That platform where you can showcase your talent. But if that platform is not there in terms of broadcasting you don't have any tips that you can actually compile. Because to become a professional you need a profile, a portfolio, a compilation of what you have done to give somebody a 5 minute view of your talent. But if before we didn't have that intricate broadcasting or video recording, video capture. And so those definitely influence or make it difficult for people to showcase their talent. And what in Europe or in North America what they really look at they wouldn't know you personally and you can't tell them your story by words. So they would want to see exactly what you have done. And something like that would definitely hinder us. We also since then we haven't come up with a long range plan. We seem to be going over the 2 years, 3 years at a time. So we need something that is long range. We can have a 50 year plan or a 25 year plan or a 10 year plan. In the US like the MLS they started with a goal of losing 22 million dollars. That is about how much is that in Kenya shalings. When they were losing 22 million dollars they felt that they were ahead of schedule. So we have to plan, we have to sacrifice and make the investments ahead of time so that we can be able to calculate those opportunities. What made you live Kenya for university in the states and what did you study for? Before I left I was featuring for the first 11 teams at Gormaya and then I got injured. I got a meniscus injury. So I got invited to a university called California State University and they had a soccer program there and they also wanted to encourage young people from Kenya to get an opportunity to get that high education because at the time only 4 universities here in Kenya were offering those opportunities. So when you leave high school if you are not in those 4 universities you basically had to get an A or a B plus or something like that. So I decided to go there and study information systems. Today my profession is systems administrator for university. Here in Kenya? In the United States. That's a big one. When you look at football in the states and what you are doing in Kenya we are really behind. We have raw talent but in terms of how we organize and how we invest we definitely have some catching up to do. One area we lack is strength training. I was looking at the poster players the other day and you can see when you compare in terms of size that's one of the things you have to look at when you're looking at two teams the size of the muscle build of the players. So we lack strength training because we don't have the genes that we can send our players and they can live and that is a very very core and intricate important part of football. The way and style of management and administration of sports is different from how the local administrators do their thing at home. I know exposure is key. It is paramount to success development of these sporting entities and having gotten that exposure overseas in the United States where things are done differently, contrary to how they are done here Do you think your professional acumen has been of much help locally? Is there anyone who has reached you to seek your knowledge on how to administer the game successfully? I have had some conversations with some former players like Freda Rocho, I have had some conversations with him on how we can improve. I have had some conversations with Azadeh Kiyoteno Ziko and one of the most important things that I try to emphasize is that long range planning and sometimes we have challenges because some of our teams don't have the sponsorships. A team like KCB, that one, they definitely can make some planning they can pay the players and make sure they have a five year plan or a smaller plan. Exactly, exactly. So I have tried to emphasize that long range planning. We have to invest in our youth. We have to start looking for talent in western province in those areas where the physical talent is there. There are some very successful players from Kakamega area from Kisumu, from the Nyanza area. So we have to start looking at the younger players. In the United States they have programs for kids even for two years old. So they start very early. My daughter I'm going to start at about five years old but they start at two and three. So we have to invest in the youth and start very early in providing technical acumen. For us we got in contact with the better coaches when we were at high school or now you're actually playing in the league. So something very simple like placement of a power. That is a very small comparison. We were taught always use power. Piga kumbora. So you have to have a balance of both. There has to be some placement when you're looking at hitting the target is more important than just more power. So there are some things that we need to teach the young ones early so that we don't go to the national team level and then we start teaching our players how to control the ball or how to stop the ball. That is too late. On Y254 we are having a discussion with Michael Tieno who played for Goldmire but now he is doing his professional work at the United States. But now when we come and talk about Kenyan football at the moment what is your take on Kenyan football? Our continental showing is we are at a little bit of a low cycle right now because we see exits by teams in the first round and that is becoming almost perennially, yes exactly. So that is an indicator that we need to do something different. Our neighbors just here Uganda. Uganda wasn't always ahead of Kenya when we looked at the ranking. But right now they are 83rd. 83rd is close to what Kenya did and what was our best which is about 7. And they were also in the finals of under 20. And they were in the finals on 20. That's amazing. Now that is in the next 10 years those young players are going to give us challenges. So we have to do something different. Our neighbors somehow they are getting it right. Simba is getting players from Kenya so that tells me that the incentives that we are providing our players is not enough. So we need the fans to come back to the stadiums. Our fans, we watch the Arsenal games and Nikolas Musone, former Secretary General kept complaining how people stuck in the bus along Nairobi West Langata catching Arsenal against West Bromwich Albion. Yet Kenya playing against South Sudan to Nyaya National Stadium people can't show up and spectate the game. But you talked about critical element of talent nurturing.  How well can we actualize the dream of this budding stars especially at this secondary school level because when you watch these school games you see how these young people exhibit high level of competence and talent manifestation but I don't know they get to disappear in between and we never get an opportunity to watch them at the big stage like for them featuring at the national level. How well do you think we can actualize the dream of this emerging stars? And that is true when you look at Nairobi secondary schools championships when you actually watch the games they are engaging and you see that there is a variety of talent from all areas of the country what we need to do is to ensure that there is a handoff there are players if you don't get picked directly from school usually you don't get that opportunity I was fortunate I played for Kakamega Posta while I was still in school and then I went on to play club football but there is a transition period that is very easy to lose these young players if you are not getting any opportunity at a club and somebody offers you a job and you want to start your family you are a young man you take the job so there is a transition period where we need to ensure that these young players transition successfully and they get placed into clubs the federation can take a very active role in this and also the private sector needs to take an active role in this because these young players I think when we have the secondary school championships do we allow we allow sponsorships can we allow any branding for the high school games yes we do because even the likes of milk companies broke sides are always coming on board what we don't allow is these players getting paid because they are seen at the tender edge many incentives are not allowed but for the corporates they are allowed to come on board I think the corporate can also take an active hand in this when I was playing we had the coca cola championships and that helped us a lot in making sure we had something to do when we were around that age of 18 years old so even the corporate sponsors can take on these teams we are going to put these young guys together so that they can represent our country at the under 18 level under 20 level like Uganda just did and that way you keep that process going as the transition to the senior level when it comes to corporates I think in Kenya there is some kind of disconnect between the corporate world and the sports world here in Kenya in that the corporates back then they used to trust the sporting world today they don't do that how can we bring that trust back that is the keep one their trust we have to infuse a level of professionalism from the football side so that we can demonstrate to the corporate entities that we take this very seriously if we show them that we take this very seriously and we want to be partners and stakeholders in something that can allow them also to reach the section of sports fans then they would probably take an interest in what we are doing we have to create transparency transparency and accountability levels we have to open up and ensure that the corporate sponsors can review our books so that means we have to hire professional accountants we just don't decide that since I am the chairman I can also do the books so let everyone let's treat it as something that is professional all around and if we do that I think they will take an interest and come back now let's finish with you we are a former club what do you make of the team so far so the current team I think the team has some bright young players Clifton Miherso is quite engaging to watch I know Muguna in the middle in the midfield there is a stand out and I think the defenders are all four defenders are pre-strong and fast but the team needs forward they also need to recalibrate and mix up the talent pool that they have infuse some other young players into the team and also add some strikers up front in the game that I watched on Wednesday I think they missed about seven clear chances in football one chance can be the difference so the team needs attacking players and also we need some patience if you've been on top for about four years there's going to be a cycle or a break in between no team can sustain top level for unknown amount of time so there is going to be right now it's time for patients right now it's time to rebuild and recalibrate and then you can make another run in the next three or four years and rebuilding is not only in the field of play there's going to be on the other all the aspects of the club and one is the brand gourmet itself the brand gourmet a club that was formed way back in 64 up to today and you compare it to a club like inter mayami that just started recently and is already on a profit run mechanism what can you advise gourmet that they can learn from what kind of brands like inter mayami I think the team since the day I was playing I think the team has not completely embraced a professional approach right now gourmet should have its own stadium gourmet should have living quarters for all the players and all the coaches for anyone who needs a place to learn gourmet should have its own businesses that are creating income for the club right now gourmet should have professionalized the machandise part of the machandising right now gourmet should have its own contracts with corporations that can infuse some sponsorships right now gourmet should have its own investment and the Nairobi stock exchange and car income for the club so its definitely where the club should be if the club can invest in those areas save money on how you are raising talent what kind of talent you are bringing in from outside the country and these are variety of things that can be done to definitely improve the club structure wow that is where we come to the end of this segment here they are taking me on a commercial break but Mike we say thank you for coming here for the touch and hope that you will be coming again sometime in the future before you leave for the united states absolutely just before you leave Mike to leave to exit the set you can tell Brian he manages to excuse us for the next five minutes you do public demand Brian Mike you know we have food mall administrators thoughts on what you think about football Kenya federation leadership so far and even you know calls to have Ambrose Racheer leaving the helm because some people believe he has overstayed what is your objective insight on the same I think Racheer has had an excellent run for the club and he has definitely elevated the club structure when we look at the last 5-10 years also when there is such a thing as fatigue infusing other bringing new ideas for where the club is the club is not where it was 10 years ago so if it may be time for somebody else to step up but the person has to step up knowing like you had mentioned that he even spends his own money so it's not a comfortable position it may be a tough thing he has done an excellent job but I think there is always room to transition to different kind of leadership to bring new ideas and that way the club can go to the next level as a former footballer do you think the current regime of football Kenya federation has not utilized ex-soka players because that has always been the complain from them I think utilizing former players is crucial they are the ones who understand the game they are the ones who know the history from the 80s and 90s we know what challenges are facing football players so definitely adding former players like Musao Tieno into the core decision making because he is one of Kenya's most captain so he has a lot of experience of how matches all around Africa so he should definitely be somewhere close or providing good advice to the officials the final one Kenya playing against South Sudan this afternoon you are taking on Jacob Gostimules run so far and what you think about the capabilities of the team qualifying to the AFKON for the second time running the two teams the two matches that we have left South Sudan we should be able to get at least a point because after all it's a friendly but we deserve a point from that if we don't get a point from that we'll be in trouble then we play Egypt and Togo we are ranked higher than Togo so we are expected to win that remains to be seen but I think if we we should collect about four points from the remaining two games we will collect a point from them as well definitely looking forward to that thanks a lot Mike thank you so much for having me let's go for a short commercial break when we come back it will be the fun zone


If you ever watch the PS60 workshops you understand stocks need to confirm the highest areas of supply and the lowest areas of demand to go higher or lower. So 134 and perfect. A trader right to the supply zone of 175-50. Again I still like Roku going into tomorrow if he can start confirming this channel here. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, happy Monday everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com Nightly Wrap-Up Show. I want to congratulate, you know, I want to congratulate the Tesla Longs. I think it's an amazing story. Okay, I think one day this is going to be definitely put in the archives as one of the greatest things a trader investor has ever seen.   And the most amazing part, it just continues to go higher. So, you know, is it a product of its environment? Is it a product of its magnificent ability for hatred to be on the wrong side of the trade? Or is it just really just a good product, right? It really is. Again, three out of my four neighbors directly in front of me or on the side of me have Tesla's. I think I'm the only Shimak who doesn't have one. Okay, they're everywhere. Okay, it's completely different if you're talking about a company that you can't touch their product, you don't see it, you know, you've never bought it. That's a whole different story, but they actually make a phenomenal car and say what you want. Again, price action pays. So, all jokes aside, I think the Longs, congratulations.  So, great job there. August came and went. Phenomenal month. We saw one of the more aggressive months that I can remember in a very, very long time. Definitely since the March bottom. Okay, and we've had some incredibly aggressive months. I think this month you started seeing a lot of names really take the next level, right? Next level moves in stocks like Zoom, which had a pretty great quarter. And again, forgive me. I used the word direct benefactor. I'm so tired. It's obviously beneficiary. One of my tweets, but they were obviously the direct beneficiary of the whole stay at home movement. Okay, everybody used it. I use it. My kids use it from home. Universities use it. Everybody use it, right? So, the only question was, was the stock going to give back some gains? Or again, is the market going to embrace the kind of the euphoric stays we're in and yada, yada, yada? We kind of got that move and the stock is trading 360 after hours. So, we're learning here as we're getting, you know, kind of to the second part of 2020 as horrible as it is with all the deaths and the COVID and the direct, unfortunately, effect of Main Street America. Again, if you're not part of the market, you know, you're having a tough time. You really are. A lot of families, unfortunately, lost their jobs or had to close down their businesses because of obviously the terrific pandemic, but the market continues to go. Okay. And unfortunately, you know, I don't have the answers for the world. Okay. I don't know what the best thing that people can do for, you know, for themselves. The only thing that we could have any type of control is the market. It's trading every single day. And I think the idea of trading day to day, analyzing what could be our worst case scenario, not what could be our worst, our best scenario. It's our worst case scenario. Because again, if you close your eyes and trade with the rose-colored glasses, eventually you're going to give everything back. And I think we're kind of getting at that point now that slowly but surely, you know, I'm going to start looking at more kind of a defensive approach, not necessarily am I going bearish by no stretch of the imagination. Again, the market's still very, very strong. Again, I say this all the time, but the macro move, right? The macro move that needs to start kind of this unwinding or at least back-testing is any close below the five-day moving average. Now again, somebody could turn around and I can turn around and make that case tonight and say, well, we did get an inverted hammer. We are getting a blow-off, you know, blow-off euphoric scenarios with the Tesla's of the world, with the Apple's of the world. I could turn around and make a case. I can make a very, very compelling case that, hey, if you look at some of the names that did run up, they started putting in lower highs for the last four days, right? For example, I'll give you a perfect example. Like look at Facebook. Facebook had this really aggressive run and now for the last, you know, four days in a row of putting in lower highs and lower lows. So you could put on Microsoft, right? Kind of the same thing. You look at Google, right? Kind of the same thing. Again, even failed to take out the previous days high. Look at Alibaba. I had that really, really big run-up last week. And again, now it's just kind of four days in a row of lower highs and lower lows. But again, you could think what you want. The price action has to dictate. So I think going into tomorrow, I am conscious of what I see in front of me. Of course, I still like a lot of names to the long side. But I think we have to at least proceed like adults, right? And again, I say this every day. I don't care if I'm wrong. Okay? I could be wrong all day in my opinion. Once the market opens up, once the channels start to develop and they start to confirm, we're not trying to overthink here. We have an opinion. Yeah, sure. We have an idea of what we want to see or we should be seeing. But once the market opens up, these channels confirm the other way, we're going back the other way. It's been like every single day. Again, I say this all the time. Have an opinion. Have a bias going in. Okay? But again, it's okay to be wrong. Okay? New traders again. I know people on social, I'm afraid to be wrong.   Okay? I'm chief one. Grand Puba. You can't get no higher.  So I don't think. Okay? I react to what I see. And the most important part is once you're collecting data and that data gets skewed or gets confirmed on the other side of the market, you have to be very, very flexible or you're going to get run over. This market is not going to give you 30, 40 minutes, two hours to figure out you're wrong. It's going to prove you wrong very, very aggressively. And if you're not, you know, if you are trading with the blinders on and you are not looking at some of the data that could turn into confirmation, you're going to give back a lot of your money. Now again, a lot of new traders, again, and I say this on the bottom of my heart because I know a lot of you guys do have kids, do have, you know, responsibilities. So the fact that a lot of people are still writing this test, I applaud you. Okay? I can't be any happier for you. But remember, one trade is not going to make your career. Okay? Again, remember, great trade, do it again. Right? Great trade, do it again. So think about that. You know, think about that next time you're giving an opinion on a trade. You're doing great. It's amazing. Have an understanding that eventually gravity will kick in. Make sure you're booking money on the way up. Understand that again, once a trend reverses, it's going to be very aggressive.  But again, just my two cents, have a plan, have an exit strategy and again, put yourself in a position again for the long game. And this is kind of what we talk about all the time. I didn't trade a lot today. You know, I scalped some of the video. I scalped some beyond. It was actually a pretty good day. It was the end of the month. Again, mentally, it's hard for me to end my month on the last day of the month or start my week on the last day of the month. So I kind of took a little bit easy, traded a little bit of cash for tomorrow. Obviously, the first day of September, I'm going to get obviously more aggressive, market, obviously market dependent. But again, I am conscious of what we just talked about, possible inverted hammer. We'll see, right? We'll see what happens. I think we'll get our clues very, very early tomorrow, probably within the first candle or so. So if we start seeing a lot of names, putting in lower highs, get stuffed on 60 minute supply, then I want to start looking at the names that are really, really exaggerated for a possible roll over. Again, I'm not talking about Armageddon. I'm not talking about retesting the March lows. We're just talking about trade by trade, right? Cash low, trade by trade. And if we're wrong, again, we could always trade the other side of the market. So let's talk about today's session. You know, pretty good stuff. Pretty good stuff indeed. Let's talk about here. Let's go all the way back. Ironically, right?  I was up a nickel. Okay. That was my only losing trade today. So let's talk about this. Obviously, NVIDIA 526 was the big number. It exploded. I'll give you a really good indication of a pivot a little bit later. Domo was a little too thin. I didn't trade this thing. It was a little too thin here. You know, again, it took out the high of the day and pretty much close. If you're in this thing, good job. 39, 75, 40, almost went to 41 and changed. So if you're in this thing, great job. Way too thin for me. Chewie had initial decent spike here. 61 needs to build. Here was Chewie, right? Here's his 61, right? Here's his, excuse me, here's his 61. Went to 61.85. Again, still looks pretty good building on top of that Bollinger Band. Monster never got to, never broke 85. Alibaba, this is kind of my whole point. A lot of these names, again, start putting in the lower highs out three, four days in a row. Again, it could be something. It could be nothing. We'll see. We'll see you going tomorrow. Never got there. PLAY and never got there. Chef never got there. INB triggered close to the close. This thing looks really good here. 1040 needs to build. Here was INMB, right? So it took out 1040, trade as high as 1080. I still like this thing tomorrow. If this thing can just start building around that 11 area, you could stretch this thing out to 12. This thing was a big, big runner over the last couple of days.   Netflix, big move on Netflix. We talked about possible moving to the 530s. 527 needs to build. Here was Netflix. Kept on getting rejected here. Kept on getting rejected here at the 527. Finally took out, oops, excuse me, wrong channel. There we go. I know it looked a little crazy. So 527, 527, 527, 527, finally took out 527, traded right to supply at 532. If I could reclaim tomorrow, I'd definitely still like it. We saw a lot of 550 weeklies coming in as well. Roku, there was actually a better pivot than 75. I'll talk about that in a second. I call it Beyond. A nice move on Beyond. Beyond 3550 needs to build.   But here was the pivot right here off this 13550, traded right to the 138 and change area. Why was it so important? Because that was the Friday's highs. It got rejected. So this is the range going forward that we have to like. But again, decent move there as well. Amazon was definitely the bigger mover of the day. I unfortunately did not take this trade. Again, I was like, ah, I'm a little lazy. It's the last day of the month. All it did was put up a $70 move. I didn't need that in my life, but it's okay. If you guys, I know a lot of you guys caught this trade. I definitely did not. So here was the break right here. This 34, 34, what was it? 34, 38. Where the hell did I say it? Excuse me, 34, 35 needs to build, right? So it takes out this 34, 35 and trades right to a little under $3,500 a share. Again, 3,600 weekly call buyers came in many times in the morning. So you have to watch for continuation. As we say here, 3,600 weekly is coming in. Boeing, I like Boeing still lower tomorrow. 17240, 172 if it builds below can flush. Not really a big flush, but again, you can see here it closed roughly at the lows of the day. I think it closed below that 17240, 172 area. I think Boeing is in trouble. It just could never muster a rally if the market does get any type of pull. It's the first one to go. Keep an eye on this thing tomorrow, guys. Below this range here, if the market especially flushes, you could get a move down to the 65 level. So keep an eye on Boeing again for tomorrow. Netflix again, 550. That was a big move there in the afternoon. Yeah, take on the way up, 530 on deck. Yeah, so here is the sneaky pivot on Roku. 174 rejected twice, needs to build. So here was Roku in the afternoon, right? Here was the 174. Here was the 174 right here. It's the highest candle into supply. If you ever watch the PS60 workshops, you understand stocks need to confirm the highest areas of supply and the lowest areas of demand to go higher or lower. So 134 and perfect. A trader right to the supply zone of 175, 50. Again, I still like Roku going into tomorrow if it can start confirming this channel here. So, you know, look, I'm definitely optimistic. Okay, I'm definitely optimistic. Also what I like just kind of a side note. So I don't trade, you know, I don't trade many biotechs, but we've been seeing the biotech sector kind of really just really fading down. AstraZeneca came out some sort of COVID news after the close. Nice little reversal here. I think for all you guys that trade the IBB, if they could close, right? If they can reclaim 136.50 on a close, you see this whole area here? If they could reclaim 136.50 on a close, you could get started getting the next leg up. So keep an eye, you know, definitely, definitely keep an eye on that as well. So end of the month, guys. I can't believe tomorrow is September 1st already. Where did this summer go? Right? Where did this summer go? Anyway, guys, have a great night. God bless. Stay safe. Be happy. Smile. Love somebody. We only live once. Guys, God bless. I'll see you tomorrow.


Hello and welcome to NewsClick. Today we have with us Dr. Satyajit Rath and we're going to discuss what could be a creeping crisis of medicine. Satyajit, this has been argued, I don't know how far it's true, you'd know better, that the era of small molecules is gone and we are not seeing new discoveries of drugs on the scale we saw 15-20 years back. We keep on hearing about new class of antibiotics which will be discovered soon because A, B or C has happened. Soil bacteria, this new era of that new era, none of it seems to have really happened. And what we see instead, what we didn't anticipate is appearance of now large molecules, small molecules, large molecules, much more complex and also the fact that large molecules seem to bring with it their own problems, cost and so on. Do you really, first before we get into the issue of large molecules, do you really see that small molecules as medicine which is what modern medicine is primarily based upon, this era is actually winding down? So that's an interesting question. My predicting the future is always a hazard. Crystal ball is very bad. Occupation. Can be a very damaging thing for our reputation later, your reputation. So clearly my reputation, but so let me hedge my bets but only just a little bit. Do I think that the era of the traditional small molecule is over? And my guess is that it is going to taper off a little. Do I think all small molecules are over? I don't think so. And I'll explain what I mean by traditional small molecule based medicine and a non-traditional one. Do I think that large molecule therapeutics is going to acquire greater and greater importance? Yes, I think that that is going to be the case. But I don't think it's going to be not this but that situation. Not in either or situation. I think we are going to see interesting reformulations of the landscape of medications in this sense. Let me explain that a little bit. How are small molecules made? Small molecules are made in two different ways. Small molecules are discovered in two different ways. Honestly, all molecules, all medical compounds are discovered in two different ways. One is you know some process that you want to interfere in and you've understood the structures of the enzymes that are involved in that process. You talk of the germ or bacteria. Even for diabetes, for blood pressure, for example, there are our own internal processes. So in those body processes, there are enzymes involved that are carrying out certain functions. Can you block some of those functions using a designed small molecule? This is been a dream. Once upon a time, what we used to do for even now, what we used to do was to look for small molecules. Do screens. Take a thousand small molecules, a million, a trillion small molecules of different kinds and just screen all of them for effects. Many of them had effects. Many of today's medicines have in fact been discovered by such activity screening. This should be called as brute force, large scale screening of molecules. You could either look at biochemical processes or you could look at whole physiologies. So how did we discover antibiotics? Even today, much of our antibiotic discovery is exactly the same kind that apocryphal stories of Alexander Fleming tell us. You are growing bacteria. You are putting some test compound on to the bacteria. Do the bacteria stop growing and die or do they not? You're not looking at biochemistry.  Trial and error, simple. But whichever it is, this is all trial and error with very large numbers of trial and errors. And therefore, you will always get some successes. Scatter gun effect, something. This has been the traditional discovery process. Now, this becomes, the more and more you discover paradoxically, discovering the next one becomes that much harder. Because you haven't understood the mechanisms. You're just doing this. So the next step that was done was to understand the mechanisms and to begin to say, can we design? Or look for those compounds which could then be, could actually effect these processes. The selection but in a limited sense. But let me point out a very practical problem. This is, we are talking at the level of the researchers. Okay, but the reality is that once you discovered a small compound, small compound, it means a few hundred atoms. Kind of small compound. So acetylsalicylic acid, that's a really small compound. The advantages of the small compounds are very many. One is because they are small, they are easily absorbed. Okay. So, make a tablet, make a capsule or take it. It will all get absorbed, very easily. Small molecules are very stable in their structure. Okay. So, when you make the small compound, it has that structure. You don't have to worry about structure. If that compound is there, then its structure has to be there. It's possible to tweak them chemically. Change their structure just a little bit here, just a little bit there by relatively inexpensive chemical methods. So, you can refine their activity. You can say, here is a small compound. It works with a certain potency. Can we tweak it and get a variant that is more potent? And this has been the bread and butter work of pharmaceutical R&D for decades. True. That's what we call the family and then new family members keep on emerge. Absolutely. Now, here is the difficulty with that. Once you enter this system of drug development, the chemists say, please don't work on that structure. It is very difficult to handle. It's very difficult to tweak. So, you generate something that the field calls, for example, the Lipinski rules, which are... Let's not get into what the detail is. Essentially, you develop rules of thumb which say certain kinds of compound structures we shouldn't bother with because they are very hard to work with. They are very hard to tweak or they are very hard to manufacture in large-scale processes and therefore drug prices will be much greater. So, let's not go there. So, we have excluded a large number of small compounds from consideration. Also, we have been using small compounds that vary very prominently. Not by all means all small compounds, but very prominently large numbers of small compounds that we develop. We develop as compounds which block enzyme activity. Now, enzyme activity blockade has an amplifying effect because one enzyme, one after another, will convert a large number of targets. So, if I block one enzyme molecule with one small molecule, it will block that entire chain of many, many, many targets. So, you have one to many relationship of effect. So, multiplier effect. So, there is a multiplier. But if one molecule pushes another molecule into doing something and I just block that, I have no multiplier effect. So, enzyme blockers have been... Enzyme blockers, small molecules of a certain chemical subset have been the mainstay of our drug development. Unsurprisingly, we are running out of things we can discover like this. So, the real question is, what are the different ways in which this scenario will change? One direction is, rather than depending on small molecules, we start making large molecules. And the simplest large molecules that serve currently as examples are antibodies. And antibodies bind to very specific targets. They bind to very specific shapes and our immune system functions in ways where we make antibodies that bind to some shapes and not to other shapes. Which means we can do the same kind of thing that a small molecule does. It binds to something and doesn't bind to something else and that is how you get a specific effect. Target. You can make an antibody and because the natural function of antibodies is to do this kind of targeting, we can now begin to redesign antibody binding to carry out the effect that small molecules would be carrying out. There are gains and losses. What are the negatives? The negatives are antibodies are very large molecules, hundreds of thousands of atoms. As a result, they are much harder to manufacture. Their quality control is much harder. They are far more expensive, therefore, to make as a manufacturing process. Number one. Number two, they are proteins. So, if you take them orally, you end up digesting them and they are not easily absorbed and functional. So, they have to be injected, which creates its own practical problems. So, there is a whole range of effort currently ongoing to see if we can figure out ways of getting them absorbed without having to poke and inject. There are ways that people are trying to stabilize molecules and to predict their structure so that manufacturing processes are easier. Antibodies are not heat stable particularly. So, you need a cold chain for their maintenance. So, all sorts of difficulties arise with large protein molecules as therapeutics. Vaccines are also antibodies. Smallpox vaccine particularly. Vaccines are, they are not antibodies but they are proteins. Proteins. And therefore, they have the same kind of difficulty. Cold chain requirements. The vaccines have an added difficulty. Many vaccines are live vaccines. The oral polio vaccine, for example, is actually live, very weak polio virus. So, it doesn't cause disease but it induces immunity. It causes immunity. But for that, you need again cold chain. So, similar kinds of difficulties arise. But there are odd gains.  Now, this is again. It seems to be because antibodies tend to be designed evolutionarily to bind certain specific targets and not this, that and the other, everything. Whereas with the traditional small molecule, we are actually simply looking for accidents. Much for haphazard. We don't really know what to predict because it has not developed in that form. Unlike in the revolutionary pressure and like antibodies. Absolutely. So, under those circumstances, it's possible that a lot of large molecule therapeutics would have actually fewer off-target side effects. The completely unexpected side effects. This would be again. The jury is still out on whether this is true or not. Really, definitely, reliably true or not. But there are some indications that this is the case. But there is a whole other category of drugs that begin to be exploited. Remember, I said that certain chemical structures had been traditionally excluded. We are now beginning to look at them. They are small class of small molecules. They are still small molecules. Remember, I had said, we can now begin to ask the question with better and better more refined molecular level structural understanding. Can we actually build small molecules from scratch? Rather than looking for small molecules. So, look at what could work and synthesize such molecules. Make designer molecules. Can we make designer molecules? Has become a second pathway. Third is related to these two. Our understanding that in odd places, biological systems have created a great diversity of chemical structures that we hadn't even thought about. So, we have begun looking at odd ball bacteria growing in ocean vents. And what kind of chemistries that they have. And what kind of small molecules result. Plants growing in extreme conditions. What kind of small molecules? And does that expand our repertoire of small molecules? As a consequence, I think what we are beginning to see is what I am calling the emerging era of unorthodox small molecules. I think the era of orthodox small molecules will taper out. I think what will begin to grow are these what by those standards are unorthodox small molecules as well as the large molecules. And there is a whole range of very fascinating possibilities at the level of detail in each of these sectors that I suspect will begin to provide diversity for us. Just for our viewers again is Gleevec which is used against certain forms of leukemia. Is it a small molecule or a large molecule? So, Gleevec is a small molecule. And Gleevec is a small molecule that was discovered as a consequence of beginning to understand the structure of the enzyme that is critically involved in causing the leukemia. So, it is not true that cancer or such diseases can be only treated with large molecules. Gleevec is an example. No, by no means. In fact, let me point out that Gleevec is actually a trade name. The generic name is imatinib. So, if you read the word imatinib, the inib end is for small molecule inhibitors. Okay. But you also have a large number of drugs which end in Mab as in Rituximab which is used for treating another kind of leukemia. Mab stands for monoclonal antibody which is a large protein molecule. And at the moment, there are as many inhibs being made as new drugs as there are Mabs being made. So, what you are saying is we introduced a new class of rugs which are essentially large molecules. But we are also taking unorthodox roots to find small molecules which have properties which we didn't think about earlier, would not have gone to earlier. And also looking at designer molecules. That means look at what we really want, looking at the structure of what we want to prevent from growth disease, therefore. And therefore, trying to develop new designer molecules which otherwise may not exist. So, let me make a point here. Why have these unorthodox approaches not been in fashion? Because industry has been reluctant to let production costs rise. Okay. As a consequence, as these drugs begin to come up, there is going to be a major struggle in reshaping the landscape of the pharma industry. What we are going to see is the irresistible force meeting the movable object. The irresistible force is public need for new medicines. And new antibiotics at reasonable cost. The movable object is the profit making of the pharma industry. At some point, this is going to lead to creative disruption. We are going to see a fundamental restructuring of how manufacturing sectors look at these problems. And that is going to be both interesting, instructive and hopefully socially useful. And also look at how society values health of its citizens. So, that is the other part of the mix. Thank you very much Satyajit for being with us, looking at an area which is not publicly being debated as yet. Because it is still very much within the labs and one is we hear about it only in certain journals. And possibly it will become more popular when it enters the legal arena. How do you look at patents in light of these changes? Because that is not going to be the easy one either. Thank you very much. Hope that we continue these discussions at other locations. This is all the time we have for NewsClick today. Do keep watching NewsClick and visit our website.