Today in Berlin, we launched a new report entitled Migration in West and North Africa and across the Mediterranean. And in a few moments, you're going to hear from six of the experts who are involved in contributing to this study. They're going to be speaking about four subjects. Firstly, they will discuss what kind of evidence and data are available to inform policy and programming in these countries. Secondly, we're going to hear about some new research which looks at some of the risks that migrants face during their journeys through different parts of Africa. Thirdly, we're going to discuss questions relating to migration and its impact on development. And lastly, we're going to look at some of the policy responses in the various countries along the central Mediterranean route to see how those countries have responded to some of the risks that migrants face, but also some of the opportunities that migration presents for those interested in promoting development. Thank you very much, Frank. So what I'm going to do in the next few minutes is I'll quickly run you through the various sections of the volume and highlight what are some of the key findings from each of the four sections. The report does not only showcase or represent what we as IOM know, and this was an incredible team effort involving about 50 different contributors across international organizations, civil society, migrant associations working north and south of the Mediterranean and covers mainly the period between January 2018 and December 2019 before COVID hit. So what we decided to do in spring and in the summer is include a dedicated chapter on the impact of COVID-19 on migration in western North Africa and across the Mediterranean and add also some related COVID adaptations throughout the volume. So the first section covers key migration trends. We have a discussion about the sources of data. Most of the content actually presented in this volume is based on data collected by IOM's displacement tracking matrix and our colleagues in the field and also by the mixed migration center. But we also have other sources of data, national statistics. There is a discussion also about the potential of new data sources such as Facebook data, for instance, to estimate stocks of international migrants in African countries and also open source data and what it can tell us potentially about future migration trends, particularly when it comes to asylum seeking movements to Europe. And that's where from our colleagues at EAS, the European Asylum Support Office. So what are some of the key findings? Well, actually if we look at migrant stocks, migration from Africa is relatively low, particularly in terms of immigration. We're talking about 1.6% of the total population in countries in west and north Africa. But also in terms of emigration, which is moderate but still relatively limited, in terms of reasons for migration, we have a discrepancy between the reasons given by migrants interviewed by our DTM colleagues and MMC colleagues in west and north Africa for the reasons to migrating with a prevalence of migrating for job opportunities, seeking better livelihood opportunities, joining family members and the reasons given by migrants as a rival after the Mediterranean crossing, which points to the fact that the reasons for migrating initially may have been different and the migrants find themselves in very vulnerable situations in countries of transit or first destination. We have also a section on risks, on risks related to migration in these regions, the individual as well as the contextual factors that explain the likelihood of being exposed to certain types of risks. And in terms of some of the key findings in this section, we have in particular that the socioeconomic characteristics of migrants and some of the conditions on the journey really affect the exposure to specific types of risks and also the age and level of education and whether people are traveling with family members and duration of the journey are all factors that have an impact on exposure to risk. One of the key findings is also that we need to look at the complexity of migrant smuggling as a phenomenon. And while, yes, migrant smuggling is a crime against states, it is also and sometimes the only livelihood opportunity available to many communities in key countries in Africa and in response to a demand also for services by migrants wanting to cross borders and having no other possibilities or opportunities to do so for lack of safe and regular alternatives. And we also have a discussion of the risks posed by policies established by countries. For instance, the increased politicization of search and rescue operations in the Mediterranean, the support provided by the EU to the Libyan Coast Guard and Navy with interceptions and returns to Libya are highly problematic because they expose migrants to arbitrary detention, deportation, abuse and human rights violations. The third section of the report focuses on migration and development. This section in particular deals with immigration and immigration and how they could contribute to or they do contribute to economic and human development. So we have some country perspectives. Again here, aspects of return and reintegration, sustainability of reintegration also and IM's work as part of the safety support and solutions program. And finally, the fourth section deals with migration governance and policy and programming responses. So we have a discussion here of the national, regional and trans-regional policy frameworks affecting migration in these regions. We have a discussion of diaspora policies which are on the rise and the inclusion of immigrants in the way countries think about their citizens and their citizens abroad and what it means to development. The fact that there is a parallel sort of development in terms of on the one hand a tightening and increasing tightening of external border controls in countries on the central Mediterranean route and at the same time a tendency to sort of highlight the free movement areas and expand the framework of rights and included in these free movement agreements in countries in these regions. And chapters in this section also include a discussion of public opinion on migration in countries in West and North Africa as well as IM's project to foster social cohesion and the impact of awareness raising campaigns on the risks of irregular migration which has also been part of this program funded by the UK Foreign Commonwealth Development Office. So we'll have more detailed presentations about some of the chapters in each of the four sections shortly so I will stop here. I wanted to really thank all the colleagues who worked really hard to make the publication possible and all the reviewers for their valuable feedback. Really big thanks. Thank you Frank and Martia for the introduction. This additive volume makes an important contribution to the evidence and research base that is being created under the auspices of the FCDO funded SSS2 program safety support and solutions which is currently in its second phase. Under this program IOM has been working together with other partners to identify and provide essential humanitarian services to migrants particularly vulnerable migrants travelling along the central Mediterranean route in whichever direction that they are moving whether it's south to north, north to south or inter-regionally. A fundamental aspect of this program has been building an evidence and research base to better understand and target our work better. And in that vein we have been documenting migration dynamics along the route through the displacement tracking matrix better understanding vulnerabilities through the mixed migration centres 4MI and supporting the vital collection of data around the lives of those that are so unnecessarily lost in the Mediterranean under the Missing Migrants project. We've also been building the capacities of governments and other migration stakeholders in the western Central Africa region and the MENA region to better utilise the data that they have at their disposal for more effective and relevant policy making. Under outcome 4 of the program we've been undertaking a large scale research project to understand better the decisions that migrants make and the influence if any that development interventions have such as the creation of livelihood opportunities on those decisions. This volume brings together some valuable insight on the complex relationship for example between migration and development and explores the interlinkages in countries along the central Mediterranean route. The SSS2 program has been about promoting partnership and sharing learning so that we can deliver services better to migrants and communities along the central Mediterranean route in that spirit the edited volume has not only brought in contributions from the other SSS2 partners but also key civil society actors and scholars and academics alike. What makes this volume particularly unique is the contributions by scholars from the global south and given the gender dynamics of migration and heightened vulnerabilities by female scholars. As we know there has been a deficit of empirical evidence on migration and related issues in western North Africa limiting the possibility of reaching a more in-depth and nuanced understanding of the migration dynamics at play and to inform effective policy making. I look forward to hearing contributions from colleagues who have contributed to the volume today and look forward to reading the edited volume. Thank you. The greater public and probably politicians remains largely misinformed about migration in North and West Africa. Media reports too often convey an implicit notion that African migration is massive, that migration is a predicament not a blessing that it must be contained not promoted etc etc. So what do we know? The first source of knowledge comes from population censuses and surveys African states have conducted in the last decade that deliver a picture of how many migrants they are originating in what countries and with what individual characteristics. Several features emerge. First, western and northern African states are neither original destination of huge migratory movement On the contrary, immigrants represent only 1.6% and immigrants 3.4% of their combined population which is below the world average of 3.5%. Second, there is considerable diversity in Africa. North African countries have been for decades major migrant-sending countries mostly to Europe. Migration is a dimension of the relationship between the migrant and Europe. On the other side, apart from Libya, these countries are not host to any sizable immigrant population. By contrast, West African countries are the same time origin and destination of mostly regional migration. Migration is for them an outstanding form of regional integration. Third, Côte d'Ivoire and Libya are major destinations for African migrants. With immigrants representing 25% of its resident population, twice as much as in an average new country, Côte d'Ivoire compares with leading countries of immigration in other continent. The situation in Libya is more confusing. Before 2011, the country was like the big oil-producing states of the Middle East, the major employer of migrant workers. At present, despite the political chaos, it still attracts several hundreds of thousands of foreign workers and also migrants in transit for Europe. Fourth, the vast majority of African migrants currently present in other African states are locally employed. They are not in transit for Europe. Fifth, analysis of European data shows that most immigrants from Africa came by air with a visa. Those entered by sea with no visa are a minority. There is much more we would need to know but cannot find using national data. How many people are moving at any moment in time? In other words, how big are migratory flows that are not aware? Under what status? Using what means? Exposed to what risk? Etc. Data collected on the ground by IOM's Displacement Tracking Matrix, DTM, and the Mixed Migration Monitoring Mechanism Initiative for MI bring a crucial contribution to the quantitative and qualitative knowledge of mobility, displacement and migration model. From the many rounds of DTM Libya, one can extract detailed information about changes in migrant numbers from one round to the next by administrative region in the country, citizenship of the migrants, etc. No administrative system would provide this. Another kind of unique information comes from data for MI collects among smugglers about their incentives, their links to state and non-state actors, and the way they operate on the ground. Before listening to presentation by authors from DTM and for MI, I would like to highlight the characteristics of both systems of data collection. For obvious reasons of limited means, data collected by DTM and for MI cannot be representative of the whole migrant population. In particular, for lack of means to cover the entire territory, DTM and for MI operate in selected places, such as strategic transit hubs, points with the high concentration of displaced people, or busy border crossings. By doing so, they provide an incomplete picture, but at the same time they gather information about migrants, their experience, history and plans that no other system has. Another difference with state-run statistical systems is the use of respondents. Because the entire population of people on the move cannot be interviewed, they are too many. Selected individuals in the population or external informants respond on behalf of the migrants. Again, this provides access to a kind of qualitative information that no other statistical system collects. A particularly interesting kind of information collected at the ground is the reason why people migrate. Among migrants interviewed in Africa, job seeking, family and study are the main motivations, while fling conflict or persecution and searching international protection do not emerge as frequent causes. First, the need for protection is the most common motive declared by African migrants who arrive regularly in Europe after having crossed the Mediterranean Sea. The discrepancy between reasons given in Africa and those given once in Europe informs among other things on how plans may change during the journey due to conditions faced along the route. We have much more to say about what we already know about migration in Western North Africa, but my time is now exhausted. Thank you. I'd like to present for you the chapter contribution towards the first section of the edited volume on key migration trends. This is trends and evolving patterns along the central and western Mediterranean routes. We had two main questions we wanted to approach. The first one being what were major monthly trends and arrivals, specifically in this period between 2018 and the first half or January to June of 2019. And this is registered arrivals of migrants and refugees. And the second question that we wanted to address was are there signs of potential shift or re-rooting between two routes over time? And the specific routes that we were looking at were the central Mediterranean route, which is arrivals to Spain in the context of this chapter and also the central Mediterranean route, which was arrivals to Italy within the context of this chapter. So to give you a bit of background context in which the analysis of the survival data is taking place, we want to mark that 2015 marked the highest number of registered arrivals of migrants and refugees in comparison to subsequent years, which saw a declining trend. So just keep in mind that this is against the backdrop of our analysis of the declining trend up to the first half of 2019 in this chapter. Also for a bit more context, we'd like to make a note that the eastern Mediterranean route or the EMR was the most active of the three routes, specifically in this period under review in our chapter. However, we chose to focus on the WMR and the CMR specifically because some of that evidence or the signs of potential re-rooting among certain nationalities was more apparent over time between these two routes. And finally, as a last contextual note, we want to point out that between the start of 2017 and August 2019, over 90 percent of migration flows in Western Central Africa, WCA, were inter-regional or within the same country. And please just be aware that these data don't represent the total mobility patterns in two years. So when we talk about total monthly trends within possible changes over time within the specific period of review, the key note worth highlighting is that in contrast to 2017, the CMR shifted from being the more active route than the WMR by mid-2018. So to contextualize that, between the second half of 2018 and up to June 2019, overall migration trends along the CMR and the WMR show a higher number of rivals to Spain than to Italy in most months. And that is in comparison to 2017. Now as Marzia had pointed out in her introduction of launch, most of these contributions were contributed prior to much of the restrictions of COVID-19. So we'd just like to point out that trends after June 2019 have continued to evolve. And since the start of 2020, Italy now receives more rivals than Spain. And now just to quickly dig into those key findings of the second question that was raised in our chapter, any indications of potential re-reading of certain nationalities over time. Within our period under review, we did indeed find evidence of potential indications of this re-reading, observed among certain migrant and refugee nationalities to Italy and Spain. And this was particularly pronounced among the Mayan and Mongolian nationals. However, in the chapter itself, we also provide some discussion of this also being more pronounced among Senegalese and Ivorian nationals as well, noting that nationality is as declared by the migrants and refugees. Now again, re-during the context that in this time period under review, over 90% of these flows within WCA were inter-regional or within country. So the graph that you see on the slide is simply as an example of illustration for you so that you can possibly see in a visual way how this re-reading is somewhat evident between 2017 up to the first half of June 2019. But as I want to keep within my time limits, I'll quickly finish my portion with some closing messages. Just emphasizing that again, this was a very specific timeframe under review in our chapter. So a lot can still be said of ongoing evolutions and trends post June 2019 and certainly after the COVID-19 pandemic as we see that this COVID-19 pandemic has also impacted the mobility of migrants and refugees. So I encourage you to look at the resources on our various web platforms as well as the chapter on COVID-19 and the volume itself for more context there. And all of this is to say that what's really important to value is that analysis that's needed to inform humanitarian agencies and authorities to adopt better programming and context-specific analysis and just bearing in mind that mobility trends as I mentioned along the CMR and the WMR are frequently changing so do require constant monitoring. And thank you very much. I believe that's all of my time and I'm happy to pass on to my fellow presenters. Protection violations in Libya have been extensively documented by organizations like OHCHR, Amnesty, Human Rights Watch, and a recent MMC and UNHCR joint report launched just this summer provides an overview of the extent of violations that refugees and migrants face across Libya. But with this chapter, which is based on a more extended MMC study, we wanted to examine what determines vulnerability and what are the characteristics of refugees and migrants or strategies that they're undertaking that might be making them more vulnerable to protection violations and abuses. And when I say protection violations I'm including sexual or physical abuse, robbery, kidnapping, detention, and even death. This study draws on more than 5,600 surveys collected by MMC with refugees and migrants in Libya through our global data collection project operation called 4MI, discussed extensively so far. Surveys were collected by enumerators who are refugees and migrants and have unique access to people on the move. And for our chapter on smuggling along the CMR, we used data for more than 300 interviews. So to build our model for what determines protection, we draw a lot on the vulnerability work already carried out by our IOM colleagues. And this allowed us to test a number of hypotheses about gender, age, how one interacted with smugglers in determining vulnerability. So we'll split up these findings into three areas. Factors or characteristics that are associated with greater vulnerability. Factors or measures that seem to mitigate vulnerability and where we didn't see evidence of any impact. So first, in terms of factors that increased vulnerability, we found in our sample that refugees and migrants from Chad, Eritrea, and Nigerians were particularly vulnerable to protection abuses in Libya. We also found that women were more vulnerable to sexual abuse, but for all other protection violations men appeared more vulnerable. Younger respondents were more vulnerable. And those refugees and migrants who worked along the route to finance the journey versus those who used digital means to secure money or carried the cash that they need were more vulnerable. And as well as the way that they paid smugglers. So paying smugglers through work seemed to make our respondents more vulnerable. This is as opposed to working out a payment modality with your smuggler where you would pay upon safe arrival or paying half at departure and another half on arrival. That seemed to be a strategy that actually mitigated the vulnerability of our respondents. And accessing money through digital money transfer to finance the various steps of the journey was another mitigation measure. And where we didn't see any evidence in respect to religion or carrying cash. So to bring in some of our insights from the smuggling chapter we found that more than two thirds of the people that we spoke to in Libya and a half in West Africa reported using a smuggler on their journey. And refugees and migrants in North Africa were more often encouraged to move by a smuggler than those in West Africa who were more often encouraged to move by friends or family. And that smugglers in Libya are among the perpetrators of protection violations. And in West Africa 9% of protection abuses were or contributed were perpetrated by smugglers. So to close now with the few seconds I have left based on these two chapters we've come up with a few key recommendations. So first for programming the importance of using a roots-based approach to develop and implement protection programming. So moving out of this single country focus consider options for digital cash programming and devise information campaigns along the route on safer option options and practices and make information shareable on social media because elsewhere in our forum I data we see how important social media and the internet is for obtaining information about the journey. For policy engaging local civil society actors and Libyan authorities to promote a domestic legal framework for refugees and migrants that focuses on protection irrespective of legal status. And the fact that smugglers have different profiles which warrants a more nuanced policy approach that moves beyond criminalization and the distinction between people on the move and their smugglers is less clear cut than the way it's often portrayed in public discourse and anti-smuggling policies and of course expanding research and data collection on refugee and migrant protection in Libya especially with respect to designing longitudinal studies. Thank you very much and I will now pass it off to Lara. In my five minutes I'd like to share what we have been doing at DTM in Europe and in particular what we have been doing monitoring flows and arrivals and updating profiles to those reaching Italy, Greece, Spain and other European countries over the past five years. And overall what we wanted to do was to look at individual risk factors and contextual conditions at origin in transit countries in a destination that might have determined higher or lower levels of vulnerability along the journey for these migrants and in particular I wanted to understand whether there are different characteristics associated to different routes for migrants which are the most prevailing factors associated with vulnerability to a selected set of experiences of abuse, violence and exploitation. As you see in the next slide overall a share between 66 and 77% of respondents each year has answered yes one of four indicators that we have included in the survey specifically so individual experiences of forced work having been held against will having been work without payment and having been offered an arranged marriage. Overall what we found is that age and sex affect the probability of experiences of abuse with younger and male respondents being more vulnerable to experiences of unpaid or forced work and have been held against will. And also we saw that the vulnerability of migrants to this set of indicators has increased over time so between 2016 and 2018 and especially for those travelling through Libya against all the others that didn't pass through that country and for those originating in western Africa and the eastern of Africa compared to other regions of origin. I think that the analysis that we have been doing provide us with many suggestions on how to best deal with the central Mediterranean routes and manage immigration along that route and complementing what I just said regular migration channels are not available for many prospective migrants from Africa and elsewhere to Europe of course looking at the Mediterranean more specifically we are lacking a comprehensive mechanism of search and rescue and desert medication at the European level which is putting more risks on the shoulders of those crossing the Mediterranean and also there is clearly more room for a comprehensive protection system for those reaching Italy at the end or other European countries who are all survivors of these dangerous routes for programming aspects of course we need to and looking again to Europe because we covered more what happens before Europe maybe we need to be very specific in distinguishing the risk associated with men, women and children in terms of abuse and exploitation, violence and trafficking of course and we need to have a route-based approach understanding the differences that different routes entail and a human rights-based approach because there are many that are still falling through the cracks of the existing protection system in European countries in general and for research avenues in the future of course there is a lot of possibilities to connect micro level studies as ours on both sides of the Mediterranean and maybe more interesting is even the possibility to connect this micro level evidence with policy changes in Europe in departure countries and in transit countries because this can allow us as humanitarian actors to understand how the changes are happening along these routes and how the needs also of the migrants are changing and how different groups might become more or less vulnerable while travelling towards Europe I stop here but I'm happy to reply to more questions maybe in the end, thank you Good afternoon, I present to you our presentation on migration across West Africa, development-related aspects Myself, Peter Porte, Mary Sontrana, and then Cynthia Ruppi Tegu Part of migration is felt at different levels that no matter the level of development countries in West Africa could reach, there are citizens who also migrate although their motives to volume and impact may differ the net benefit of migration in our view is positive if it's well managed the institution of tech wars in the adoption of these protocols on free movement of persons have indeed facilitated the development of these amongst member states so the key question with us is what are the linkages between migration and development in the West African sub-region we use data source, we use World Bank and UN agencies data so key tenets of our presentation are the issue of brain drain, brain gain transnational linkages in return migration and development, migration associations and development, migrants contribute to development now let me tend to brain gain, brain drain, etc the negative perception of migration which stems from the features of brain drain has been again following contemporary migration within the West African region due to its transnational nature West African migration and AIDS migrants contribute their power skills to the development of the home country either on temporary or permanent return basis migrants certainly establish businesses in their home country, they create jobs for the left behind family we have shown in the chat revetances and high supplementing household income they are invested in accommodation and education among others more than half of West African countries represent at least 5% of their gross domestic products as we can see in terms of migrant associations and development, we notice that West African migrants form associations along the lines of their profession, their religion and ethnicity among others these associations can be found in the USA, Canada, UK, Netherlands Germany, to be seen by a few these associations contribute infrastructure development such as schools, hospitals in their home country they also support new and arrived migrants to integrate into the host country migrants help in developing their home country businesses creating employment and many others they also help to contribute to cultural diversity in the host country so you can see in the chat some local food items sold in international markets in conclusion migration within and outside of Africa subregion brings enormous benefit to both the home and the host countries especially if it is world managed therefore we recommend that government in their subregions harmonize migration policies across their region to maximize its benefits while reducing the cost of migration be it regular or irregular we also encourage governments on the SDG indicators 10 and 17 respectively to increase the volume of remittances by reducing the cost of remittances we also recommend that increased education awareness on the dangers of irregular migration and they need to promote regular migration which needs to development thank you very much most states in west and north Africa and in Europe are part of the movement areas however, borders remain important in this presentation we are going to look at how to answer towards lifting into regional border controls and towards tightening external border controls have existed in the last years and how they have influenced regional and transregional migration governance in west and north Africa and in Europe most states in these three regions are part of the movement areas in the economic community of west African states the protocol on free movement of persons on the right of residence and the establishment has been adopted already in 1979 and has free movement policies were later mainstreamed in other policies of the region such as the common approach of migration of the ECHOROS in the European Union as well the free movement of persons was already enshrined in the treaty of Rome and has later been mainstreamed also by the treaty of Maastricht and by the Schengen Agreement in west Africa and in Europe free movement policies have contributed to facilitate mobility within regions which is much more prevalent than mobility between regions they have also testified to a political recognition that this mobility is essential for social and economic integration and for development in north Africa free movement was foreseen by the treaty establishing the Arab Maghreb Union but related policies have yet to be adopted at the continental level as well will to extend the free movement policies exist and it has been present in the work of the African Union since the beginning years ago in 2018 it has gained momentum with the adoption of the protocol on free movement of persons and the right of residents and establishment however national borders remain important in fact divergent interests at the national level have rendered it sometimes difficult to advance on the implementation of free movement policies and to agree on migration governance in free movement areas these national differences have been partially related to social economic divergences between member states and to different migration related interests that have been linked to different aspects such as demographic trends different migration and remittances flows labour market needs or geographical locations the impact can be seen in north Africa for example where and as we already mentioned they have hindered or slowed down the progress on free movement policies and their adoptions in the ECOWAS they have so far hindered the full implementation of the protocol of 79 and in the European Union they have rendered it difficult for member states to agree on migration governance within the union and they have led member states to progressively increase their efforts on immigration control at the external border of the union these simultaneous trends towards lifting inter-regional border controls have led to inter-regional dependencies immigration policy negotiations in particular we see that migration governance in west and north Africa has been increasingly influenced by policy negotiations inside the European Union this has taken place both directly from inter-regional policy negotiations but also indirectly as what is negotiated within one region can contribute to shift the focus of the negotiations between two or more regions we also see that trans-regional policy negotiations as well have not been always easy as here as well we can see that there are different national and regional interests and different competencies on migration, development and security we are now reaching the conclusion of this very short presentation and maybe we can move to the next slide we have seen that the progressive adoption and implementation of the movement policies has taken place in parallel with a maintained importance of national borders in some cases also with a trend towards tackling external border controls this has influenced the negotiation of regional and trans-regional migration governance in west and north Africa and in Europe the socio-economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic can be expected to have an impact on these policy negotiations at regional and trans-regional level as well because they may also contribute to reshape national migration-related interests to conclude here in the slide you also see the link to the chapter for download, thank you migration governance understood as a well-defined set of rules, principles and decision-making procedures that apply to immigrants and immigrants is recent in most of Africa on the other side as soon as independent states were born in the 1960s a number of questions called for the definition of policies that became building blocks of what we now consider to be migration policies the first question is who belongs to the national frameworks of rights and duties and who does not defining nationals was a funding act for all nations all north and west African states adopted a principle of nationality transmission by descent a son or daughter of a national is a national with the passing of time, members of migrants grew and states had to make decisions on issues such as the right to nationality in virtue of one's place of birth naturalization in the course of one's life citizenship etc they brought very diverse responses to that question besides defining nationals states had to decide what rights and duties non-nationals on their territory would be granted thereby doing what we call today integration policies the earliest immigration policy was could be were declaring in 1963 land belongs the second question is how do states engage with their citizens abroad making expatriate nationals the resource for their country of origin emerged as a common principle of diaspora policies designed by African states as early as the 1990s institutions linking expatriates and African states institutions linking expatriates and their country of origin were established special programs to attract migrant remittances and foreign direct investment were designed the third question is how to organize national communities abroad maintaining the sense of belonging to their nation of origin among members of the diaspora became a challenge with the rise of second generation migrants in particular those originating from the mega revenue states of origin took several measures from fostering cultural links through language courses and religious education delivered to children of migrants in Europe to recognizing political rights to non-resident nationals including the right to elect and in certain cases the right to be elected is how to deal with irregular migration in parallel with a force to incorporate expatriate nationals into citizenry African states have built up instruments to remove and document it for nationals from their territory again this is an old concern laws on entry and stay passed soon after independence all for so punishments for foreign nationals with unlawful status later on when irregular migration and cross-border smuggling gave momentum in the early 2000 African states define new categories of offenses and tighten the fight against smuggling and trafficking in human beings in 2003 Morocco became the first country to introduce a specific law against irregular migration penalizing not only migrants with an irregular status entering or living in the country but also undocumented migrants exiting the country and those facilitating irregular migration in the same period several European states started to rely on third countries to stop undocumented migrants before they reached a European border negotiating the admission of migrants with an irregular status became part of broader cooperation agreements between African and European states many other questions would call responses resorting to migration policies but I won't take much more of your time indeed Canary Islands which actually are not Mediterranean roots so it's the western Atlantic but we covered that area and we try to grasp news on data and on arrivals there from colleagues that are in Taiyum Spain and indeed there has been an increase of arrivals from Moroccan coasts but also from Mauritania because we have been seeing different types of boats reaching the Canary Islands and up until now it's around 4,000 migrants arrived to Canary Islands this year which makes this like 30% of total arrivals for Spain this year and it's indeed a bit more than it was last year in 2018 it's not completely new because there have been past periods looking at the past decade or 20 years ago that this kind of route has been used more and we are looking at trends there and also the nationalities that arrive to the Canaries instead of traveling from Morocco to Spain by sea in the Mediterranean, thank you so we have another question about what consideration was given to having a sensitive approach to data presentation the classic debate on invasion areas or maps and the impact of those on negative perceptions of migrants and alternatives I can say and perhaps also my co-editors would like to say something about this issue is the entire aim of the volume that is moving away from portraying African migration as predominantly a phenomenon of African migration to Europe and showing what is happening within Africa, within regions in Africa and all the related aspects, the risk development and governance aspects and the salient features of migration within this region so it's exactly because of that the safety support and solutions program is focusing on what is happening in countries on the route so yes obviously the program also had this part in the Central Mediterranean route and what happens across the Mediterranean and that is part obviously of African migration but it's just a small part of a much larger story that we hope has been conveyed all the contributions that we have including contributions from our colleagues working in the field and experts from the countries and regions covered by this volume and the last thing I'm going to say about this is that we also have a chapter on perceptions of migrants and migration in Africa which is usually not really a topic that we talk about yes there is a dearth of data but there are also African barometer surveys covering this topic and so we try to address what do people think about migration in these countries and then the big other topic would be what do people think about emigration maybe that hasn't really been addressed by existing surveys and we also have a chapter on projects implemented by IOM and other colleagues in the field to foster social cohesion in our chapter we make sure not to include graphs with errors we opt instead for the option of including circles which represents better in terms of proportion and overall data in terms of yes proportions and shares which we feel is a much better approach as it's a more descriptive approach which is indicative of conclusions and findings but not presenting conclusions in and of themselves or conclusive statements and if you do look at our displacement.iom.int website as well as the migration.iom.int and agenda colleagues I know that your platform is similar we do not opt to use maps with errors we do opt to use the maps with spheres instead so I hope it's just a very quick and concise answer of course the map is completely misleading and it is written in the volume itself when you feature arrows starting from the Gulf of Guinea crossing the whole of West Africa to Libya and then crossing the Mediterranean this does not go into any real migration of course there are routes in Africa but these routes are traveled from South to North but also from North to South these routes are separate segments of a number of diverse flows within Africa which have absolutely nothing to do with crossing with no passport so we pay a lot of attention to this in the volume and I'm pretty sure that if we did a mistake on this please let us know clearly we try to show that African migration is much more complex than the simplistic view that a number of media try to convey of the invasion of Europe etc so we pay much attention to the data not to the invented data a reference has been made today to the safety, support and solutions to program SSS2, when it was first designed SSS2 was a 75 million pounds multi-sector, multi-country humanitarian program in West and North Africa that provides protection support for people on the move together with a range of research and data and evidence components recent funding reductions have lowered the overall amount but the scope and the goal of the work remains the same it goes without saying that FCDO's partners are crucial to the implementation of our humanitarian strategy and our program work and I was very happy to see that Tauhid mentioned the importance of partnerships in his opening remarks IOM is the only partner working across all SSS2 outcomes and all focus countries which highlights their importance as a partner we're also very fortunate to be able to draw on the expertise that exists within the Global Migration Data Analysis Centre GIMDAC as part of that support we're proud to have supported GIMDAC on specific projects over the last number of years and in particular on the work that has gone into this edited volume FCDO also funds data collection and analysis and research carried out by NGO partners such as the Danish Refugee Council and its Mixed Migration Centre and we're very pleased to see the coordination that has occurred between IOM and MMC in particular under outcome 3 of SSS2 we are looking to enhance the understanding of key actors so here I'm talking about national and international humanitarian organizations governments and donors of who moves and where they move as well as the vulnerabilities and protection concerns of people on the move this information should then feed into humanitarian decision making in order to make people's journeys safer the edited volume should therefore be an excellent tool to achieve this end the breadth of topics covered in the volume is impressive enough in itself and we've heard some of the detail from the speakers today it was great to hear ILA mention the root-based approach, something which is the cornerstone of SSS2 the topics that are covered show the complexity of migration issues and the multi-pronged approach that migration actors must be cognizant of the topics cover some more obvious but important areas such as data management and use migration policy and programming and the inherent risks people on the move face but I believe its investigations into the development considerations of migration in particular are crucial it shows that migration issues are not short term and that humanitarian actors need to take a broader view when supporting people on the move coming from a donor's perspective finally I'd like to touch on two areas that I believe are important for the edited volume and that is its impact and the sustainability of interventions that it examines with regard to impact we are aware that research, excuse me we are aware that partners working under outcome 3 of SSS2 face challenges in measuring the impact of data and evidence programming indeed we have funded MMC to look at this exact issue and they produced a paper earlier this year called evidence-based operational responses to mixed migration challenges and best practice I would encourage all implementing partners on this webinar to use research such as the edited volume to inform both your existing programs and future funding applications evidence-based work is hugely important to FCDO and to other donors too finally regarding the sustainability of SSS2 and projects such as the edited volume we hope that through our SSS2 funding and the championing of the root-based approach we have created a solid foundation from which to build we hope this will lead to the continuation of this work and that it will be built upon to ensure that people on the move in North and West Africa continue to receive high quality support and assistance


Proste, Prof. Ishida. OK. Čakaj. Zdaj, da imamo to unifaj, imamo seori krepiču prezentaciju. Zdaj, možemo izgledati, kaj je tudi topologi. Zdaj, če je tudi izgleda, in in tudi, da je inčen, je vse zelo zelo zelo, kako nekaj je izgleda. Seveda, if the flow is initially 2D incompressible, it will continue to be 2D incompressible, and also, if the initial flow is helicity free, it will be maintained. Zato mu je tako pravda, da je totopoložice, pravda prijeljega. En vse prijeljamo govori, da te pravda prijeljem je totopoložice, to je, da je totopoložice imeljno in vsega ideje revolučijo. In što prijeljamo, da pa se počušimo, ki je totopoložice kod vzvečilje in vzvečje vzvečje, tudi v zelo v zelo načinu. Tako tukaj teznih teznih teznih teznih teznih will give some influence to the turbulence that I am going to discuss. So the background of this talk is the first, there was a suggestion by Fukumoto that these teznih teznih teznih teznih can be unified as cross-heresities. This is the one essential idea. And also I will draw heavily on this work, collaboration with Phil Morison. And that means the hierarchy of flow field parameterization. And that hierarchy means that we have these kind of special type of flows as hierarchical structures. The outline of my talk is, I am going to say that Krebš parameters are fundamental field underlying fluid observables. So I will explain why I am going to consider this. And fundamental means we can consider the communical Hamiltonian mechanics in Krebš parameters, phase space. And that is not directly visible, but we consider some canonical Hamiltonian mechanics of Krebš parameters. And we consider that the fluid observables like densities, the entropy or the velocity field, they are reduction from these Krebš parameters. So that I will call reduction to fluid variables. And then on this visible fluid mechanical parameters, we can construct fluid mechanics equation just from the canonical Hamiltonian mechanics of Krebš parameters. So that is the basic idea. And this reduction means the degree of freedom is reduced. And so therefore this reduction is in some sense redundant. And that redundancy allows us to consider some gauge symmetry. And this gauge symmetry will give you the so-called cashmere as data charges. And it is also well known that the helicities and these kind of things are the data charges. So these cashmere can be regarded as the data charges of this gauge symmetry of the reduction. And so that means the cashmere basically describes that the fluid mechanics is constrained. And that constraint gives some constrained mechanics as the fluid mechanics. And so that is the geometrical picture of topological picture of the fluid mechanics. And we can formulate generalized entropy, which is conserved in 3D ideal flow. You know, the generalized entropy is usually assumed that it's a constant motion of 2D flow. But we can formulate further generalized entropy that is conserved in 3D ideal flow. And this generalized entropy basically reflects the circulation law. But it is more convenient to delineate the topological constraints in the 3D ideal flow. And so this generalized entropy may put obstacle in the way of cascade, because it's the conserved, topological conserved. So in the inertia range, the fluid motion is topologically constrained by this generalized entropy. And this generalized entropy is degenerating to the conventional generalized entropy in the 2D fluid. So therefore we know that in a two-dimensional situation, the inverse cascade occurs. So then the question is what happens in the 3D? Because in the 3D, usually we never pay attention to the entropy. However, we do have something similar to the entropy in the 3D vortex dynamics. So then in the 3D, we show that the vortex tube strength gives the pass for the cascade. So that is the explanation of the difference between 2D and 3D. So I will start from reviewing the Hamiltonian mechanical formulation of fluid mechanics. That is already well known. So to avoid the complexity induced by the boundary condition, we just consider three-dimensional torres. I mean neglected boundary. And consider the ideal flow obejing these. And by ideal, I mean inviscid and barotropic. So this is a barotropic pressure. And so this is, I think, the very well-known equation for the fluid mechanics community. Most simple. And so then we can put this in the Hamiltonian form. Hamiltonian, but it's the infinite dimension Hamiltonian form. And to do that, we first define the phase space. And naturally, we consider this rho and v as these are the fluid observables. This span the phase space. So we consider the phase space of rho and v. Rho is the density and v is the velocity. And then we can put these two equations into the Hamiltonian form, which I avoid to write down here. It is very well known. And we can formulate non-canonical Poisson bracket. And the energy is just simple fluid energy Hamiltonian. And then we can write it in Hamiltonian form. And because then this Poisson bracket of these Hamiltonian mechanics turns out to be non-canonical. Non-canonical or the degenerate. And the non-canonicality is reflected as the creation of the cashmere. And the cashmere are the constants of motion. There are two. One is the total mass. And the other is the fluid helicity. And these two are known to be the cashmere of this Poisson algebra. And these are the constants of motion in the context of physics. But in the context of mathematics, these are the center of the Poisson algebra or the cashmere. And cashmere are the constant of motion. But it is very interesting in the sense that that is independent of the choice of the Hamiltonian. And usually in physics we believe that the constant of motion is some attribute of some symmetry of the system. So usually the constant of motion comes from the symmetry in the Hamiltonian. However, these cashmere are independent of the any choice of the Hamiltonian. So the origin of these cashmere are not in the Hamiltonian, but it is in the symmetry or the sum of gauge symmetry beneath this, the fundamental, beneath this fluid variables. So the idea is we may relate these cashmere as the gauge symmetry of the Poisson algebra. So then the question is what is the more fundamental field beneath the fluid variables. So there are any kind of mathematical possibilities, but I am proposing here that the Krebjš field is the fundamental field beneath the fluid mechanical variables. So we can prove that by formulating canonical Hamiltonian mechanics on the Krebjš parameters, and then by reduction we can reproduce fluid mechanics. So that is the scenario. So here we introduce the Krebjš parameters as the underlying basic quantities. And that I write like this. Here we invoke six functions like this, rho, phi, p, q, r, s. And so these six component functions, among them rho, p, r, are three forms, and phi, q, s are the scalars, zero forms. And three forms means something like the density. And scalars, just scalars, like you know that. So these three of them are three forms, and three of them are the scalars. And we define the canonical Poisson bracket, just canonical like this. And this Jc is a canonical symplectic matrix. So we formulate canonical Poisson bracket on this phase space. And then fluid system, the previous fluid system is obtained by relating these Krebjš parameters to fluid variables like this. Rho density is this curly rho. I put star to become a rigorous mathematically, but star means Hojcidual. Hojcidual means basically you divide by the volume form. And then velocity V is written like this. And this is the well-known Krebjš parameterization in some part mathematical representation. But we write that these fundamental Krebjš parameters appear as this, and rho and velocity in this very specific form. And then we may write the Hamiltonian, that is the fluid energy. And the fluid energy is, of course, at the sum of the kinetic energy and the thermal energy, multiplied by the density and integrate over the volume. So because this part is velocity V, so this represents the kinetic energy, and by this epsilon, I'm representing the valotropic thermal energy. And just plotting in this Hamiltonian to the previous canonical system, we obtain this Hamiltonian's equation of motion. And that is like this. And you will find that only the equation for phi is a little bit complicated, but four others are very similar form. And you will notice that, for instance, this is nothing but the mass conservation law. Right? And that is this, rho, as I said, is a three-form. So this means that rho is redrug as a three-form. So it is the maintained if you integrate over the moving volume. And others, P, R, these are the scalars. No, no, no. These Qs are the scalars. That is just also redrug the scalars. And P, R are the three-forms. So they are just, you know, the constant of motion along the flow motion. So therefore, the Hamiltonian's equation of motion is very simple. And it says that basically these, the gravity potentials are accepting phi, just, you know, the transported by the flow. And using this, then we can easily verify that, you know, the relating rho and V in this way, we can easily check that this equation of motion is equivalent to the fluid mechanics equation. So therefore, we can say that these Krebš parameters, Hamiltonian mechanics of Krebš parameters is the fundamental representation of the fluid mechanics. Yes. Yeah, phi is the Bernoulli constant. Yeah, from here. It's basically the energy density. So for the Krebš parameterization, we have this kind of lemma. That says in the n-dimension-based space, we can represent every one form, it's something like a vector in this form. So this is the Krebš one form, which we call Krebš one form. That is special because this first component is exact. It's just the gradient of something. And others, you know, the general way. So we can say that in the n-dimension, every field is written like this. So therefore, in the two-dimension space, every velocity field can be written like this. And in the three-dimension space, every field can be written like this. So you notice that we need another R-spare in the 3D. In 2D, this is enough. And even in the 3D geometry, we can consider what we named AP two-dimensional flow. That has only this component. So we can consider this kind of special class of flow in the 3D space. And we will show that this is the helicity-free flow. And in the two-dimensional geometry, as I said, every velocity field can be written in this way. So therefore, the phase space is a little bit smaller. We need only p cubed, and we do not need rs. And then we have in the two-dimensional fluid mechanics, we have the so-called generalized entropy as the famous constant of motion. And that is written like this. And f is an arbitrary function. And we basically divide, this is the so-called potential velocity, and any function of potential velocity multiplied by the density 2,4 gives you the constant of motion. And you can easily verify this is the constant of motion. But here, we notice that the basic point is in the 2D, the velocity is always 2,4. It is the curl of the velocity. And velocity, if you consider, velocity is one form, curl v is omega, the voltage is 2,4. So if you divide 2 form by 2 form, you get scalar. So the idea of formulating this is you first determine the scalar field, and then you integrate over multiply density, and you get this constant of motion. So we can do the same thing in the 3D. So in the 3D, we have this generalized entropy conservation. So how we can formulate the generalized entropy is for the flow by taking a curl, we have two components contributing to the velocity. First one comes from the first component which I denote by omega plus. And the second one comes from the second component of the curvature that I denote omega minus. And for each omega plus and omega minus, we can formulate this as the generalized three-dimensional entropy. And to define that, we need another moving redrugged scalar, sigma, and by help of this redrugged sigma, we can formulate this. And we can show that this generalized entropy is a constant of motion in the 3D. And this sigma to define this may be any moving scalar field. And that may be either phantom or axial. By phantom means any scalar field which does not enter the Hamiltonian. And axial field I mean some field entering in the Hamiltonian. And in a two-dimensional case, this sigma may be simply the coordinate, perpendicular coordinate z. And then you can easily show that this collapse to the conventional entropy. But for the 3D, these are the generalizations. And also it is interesting that you can create the 3D helicity by this, just combining these two generalized entropies. So we will call this generalized entropy as charges, topological charges. And so therefore these are the more fundamental topological charges than the 3D helicity. So the 3D helicity is just a combination of these two generalized helicities. Entropies. And topological constraints given by this. So we now notice that even in the 3D we have topological constraints given by these topological charges. So any ideal flow must conserve these topological charges. So in 2D, as I said, this is just the conventional entropy. So therefore it is known that this and also if the flow is almost incompressible, the conservation of this charge is the conservation of omega. So therefore the omega cannot change in that 2D. So therefore the slow change, because this is the constraint, slow change of this omega in the Fourier space by the action of this convection blocks the cascade of the energy. So the energy cascade is blocked by the topological constraint imposed by this. So therefore the energy must go to the other directions of the inverse cascade of gas. So this is the well-known scenario. So what happens in the 3D? In the 3D fortunately the conservation of these two charges does not directly influence the magnitude of omega plus and omega minus because that is the multiple of the gradient sigma and this and this gradient sigma is basically the perpendicular direction. So therefore if this gradient sigma is reduced this omega may increase. So this is the well-known vortex stretching because the degrees of the variation of sigma means the elongation in the direction of sigma. So that means the stretching can help to omega to be cascaded much much faster than the usual situation. I'm finishing. So therefore the vortex stretching paves are the path for the normal cascade. And this is how this stretching will modify the omega. So let me conclude. So invokings are the Kurevich parameters. We can formulate canonize freed Hamiltonian system and we have topological charges that is the generalized enstorofis whose conservation causes topological consultant on the 3D fluid motion. And the well-known heresities are the derivative of these charges. And in 2D the topological charges generate the enstorofi conservation gives the inverse cascade. In a 3D the vortex tube stretching enables rapid cascade of omega enabling normal cascade. This is, of course, very long. But the point is this omega plus minus invariance places morphological consultant on the cascading process because these are topological consultants. So by use of these things we can make more detailed analysis of how cascade will create the internal change of the structures in the fluid. So, thank you very much.


This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Whenever the MLB all-star break rolls around and starts to set in just how close the NFL is just how close We are to having players on the field during training camps Which means this is one of our final chances to actually talk NFL player awards before Training camps get underway. So what better time to talk some NFL What better time to bring back Ryan Williams and pick his brain about the NFL award market over at Fandall Sport But can try to identify where he sees value as of right now This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Number fire calm my name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire Joined here as mentioned by Ryan Williams check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan it is a pleasure to have you back on the show for today. It has been far Too long how you do it Yeah, I'm doing well Jim, it's always a pleasure to be uncovering the spread I can't believe we're at MLB all-star break We only got a couple more Sundays here without football. It's just that time.  You're like, hey, let's go. What's going on? Let's get you on the show. Let's talk some futures and I'm like, yes That's just what I've been waiting for Jim injected into my veins. Get me up No, man, it's it's all good fun I'm excited to be back in the in the passenger seat with you and to talk some shop as it relates to the NFL futures It's not the reserves. We were saving the big guns. It's got to rest them up before NFL season You know, we gotta we got to make sure we so that we don't wear you out before NFL So this is all like planned, you know NFL or MLB team saving there like all-star starter Ramping them up throughout the year. We've got to get you got to get you back up so we can have you in October when things Really matter. So a pleasure to have you back on the show here for today. We're gonna talk through the NFL awards markets We'll talk overall strategy as far as like because you are locking up bankroll for a long time Like how much an edge you need to justify locking up bankroll until February. We'll talk about that We'll talk about MVP coach of the year rookie of the year all that here in just one second The first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed To the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts or over on Spotify also Do not forget all these shows are going up on the faddle YouTube page and on the faddle TV plus app If you got the faddle TV plus app, you can find it on Amazon fire Apple TV and Roku as well. You can check out us alongside running back up and Adams the solo shot once that is back Post all star break as well all on the faddle TV plus app Take your first wing at betting MLB on faddle and get ten times your first bet amount in bonus bets up to $200 that's right. Just bet 20 bucks nearly on $200 and bonus bets win or lose. That's 200 You can spend a bet Think everything on to over under to who you think is going to hit the first home run all in that that is safe Secure and super easy to use plus when you win you get paid instantly There's no better place to bet on MLB than faddle America's number one sportsbook So sign up today. 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Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call<PHONE_NUMBER> for 24-7 support in massachusetts Call 1-877-789-hopenwire.tex-hopenwire in new york Now as I mentioned Ryan before diving into the actual markets and talking about the players we think may be undervalued for this year I want to talk overall philosophy with you when it comes to betting futures because if you bet a player award market right now unless you cash out basically the sportsbook has control of that money until February and That's a lot of time you could spend that money on something else. You could put it in a cd. I don't know whatever you want to do um That is a long time to lock up bankroll So how much of an edge do you need in order to justify Betting something that you know will not pay out until February It's got to be a pretty pretty nice edge there Uh, I will say you're talking to somebody who I have some bets on futures That it was looking through my through my account that happened on February 11 You know because you are getting you are getting long shots at that at that point in time If you feel like there is an edge or you feel like there's there's some situations to take advantage of The players i'll just mention that I put futures on are Justin fields uh to win mvp Which those odds have already changed. See I got him at 30 to 1. He's now 20 to 1 Russell wilson. I got him at 50 to 1. He's now in the 40 to 1 range Uh and erin rogers who was 25 to 1 going to potentially a different team at the time Is what is what we thought we didn't know where it would be but probably a favorable situation immediately when he gets there I got him at 25 to 1 and he's now 16 to 1. So like when you can take advantage Of the market and you know do things in in that nature. I think that that's always encouraging To be able to lock up some money when you think that there's going to be An advantage now I was going to save this until later on but this kind of leads me to A point that I was going to bring up with jamar chase from a couple years ago So when we start getting into this time of the season And it's always fun right for for july rolls around Everybody you know is thinking about okay, so if i'm in you know dynasty leagues I got to start thinking about you know drafts scott fishbowl comes around Which is a big thing in fantasy people are thinking about that people are thinking about best ball People are gearing up for august and when that happens we start to see the narrative train Start to start to come along you got you got training camp you got hard nice You got all of these things and with jamar chase specifically a couple years ago when training camp was going on What was the talk? Oh this guy can't catch the ball. He has duck hands It's going to be rough for him and that that affected the market for him going into it when he was drafted He was one of the favorites to be rookie of the year and then all of a sudden the stuff Starts piling on and through the beginning of the season like you were getting favorable odds And the 10 to 1 range and higher of this guy being rookie of the year So when we have things like that that happened where You're pretty sure the talent's there Or or maybe you're you're willing to bet on the talent there because of where this draft Half capital came in on a guy That's what makes it really exciting and where you can take advantage of the market I'm excited to go through some of these Rookies with you jim because I do think there there are some discrepancies But this is the best time of the year jim for people who you know Want to play concierge and or want to take the long shots That's the only way that makes it worth it is if you take some of these long shot bets You kind of weigh out the outcomes and yes, they're going to be long shots Like russell wilson had one of the worst years From a quarterback of his stature in recent memory last season But you know you think about the coaching changes that are happening there You think about the weapons that are still there in denver and if you're going to give me 50 to 1 odds on a guy who Is formally an mvp and can you know write the ship at any time given a situation like I'm willing to take those bets. So long story short jim. I think that if we're looking to lock up some money We definitely want it to be Bang worth the buck When it comes to that and taking these long shots are very Valuable at this point in time and possibly something that you might end up forgetting if you get these long shot Melvin sudden February rolls around and you see your bank account start to start to roll up But I think the key thing that you did was you locked up players who On whom you would get closing line value and closing line value is kind of Quantifying putting like a number behind the edge that you have which allows you to like justify Locking up that bank roll like basically with justin fields like okay If he gets a weapon in the off season his number will short he gets dj more than number short If erin rogers I mean he could have retired at that time honestly But if he gets traded and gets better weapons and what he had his number will shorten russa wilson if he gets a Better coaching situation, you know, uh, shon payton becomes his coach you get closing line value So I think that what you were doing was identifying markets where He would shift in your favor Which is again just kind of getting a number value behind The value that you got so again like let's say if you're comparing Betting a player market versus again putting I don't know I'm just going to use putting your money in a cd as an as an example Like this is like an investment decision because you can use that money in other areas But if you're going to get closing line value on it that is effectively growing that money Because it's growing the expected value of what you put in to that market So I think that what you want to do is what ryan did is identify areas where a player's number may shorten and Use that as an example That's also why the jamar chase example is pertinent because his number For length which was a way to dive in before short and once again once they were actually on the field So I think that identifying spots where you think the market will move is a pretty big important factor if you're trying to Justify locking up bankroll for that long So let's talk about that mvp market as you mentioned the guys you've you've uh, you've already invested and have short not ready so Potentially no more value in those guys. I think russia Wilson's still 40 So maybe you want to talk about that but look at the mvp market as of right now We got josh alan joe burrow and patrick mighomes all at seven to one Ryan with where things currently stand any value for you in the mvp market if angelo sportsman Yeah, so this is this is always a fun one because you know you look at the top and Even funny to me. I guess maybe you say it's alphabetical order But like patrick mighomes always is just leaping bounds like I love love joe burrow Absolutely love them this year like if you were telling guns in my head putting money on one of these guys seven to one I would be joe burrow all day. Um, I just love the bingles outlook for this season josh alan It is a little bit worrisome of the things that are kind of going on in buffalo I still trust the talent there and so totally makes sense to me But I think those guys deserve to be just a little bit higher than jim josh alan, but where it gets fun Jim is just kind of thinking about situations here. So I mean No, it's it's talked about all all over the place But in case people don't know this is a quarterback award Don't get caught up in the hype on some of these other guys like you you can even see the quarterbacks I think it's uh until you get to a guy Who did I see? Oh my gosh? I can't like Derek Henry? um is 150 Sam how is a hundred like that this is the type of stuff that we're dealing with like Sam how is is higher than you know some of these electric guys, but because it's a quarterback award I think it's been since 2010 uh quarterbacks of one every year except for the adrian peterson year, which I believe was 2012 if memory serves me right um And so that's where I look at and so and you're also looking at teams who are successful because usually the quarterbacks come in around You know double digit wins for sure And so when we look at future win totals, that's kind of what i'm trying to parlay with now I did talk about a guy like russell wilson. I you know that is a tough division there out in the afc west But if he's able to kind of put it together, um, it's already coming down to 40 to one But that's still pretty nice odds and chunk of change for a guy um who could who could be there uh come come december come january The another another guy that I was looking at jim Um, which doesn't make me feel great about it, but just when we're talking about situations If you look at dishawn watson, uh 25 to one, I will say like earlier on This year even I believe he was at 40 to one like in march And so you're already starting to see the trend and it never makes you feel good browns getting hype love I mean we remember that with baker mayfield. They were like one of the top five super bowl favorites Uh, just just always discussed them with cleveland, but you're looking at the weapons You're looking at what they've invested around him You're looking at the amount of equity they invested into dishawn watson And this is a guy in houston who was electrifying and a you know, that there's a reason why they went out and got them So at 25 to one, I do think that that's interesting there You know, if you can say that they can keep up with cincinnati and we don't kind of know what's going on with baltimore Pittsburgh's always going to be in the mix. They're a tough opponent, but we don't see them win in the division So I think dishawn watson is interesting. I mean then after that like after the rustle wilson reins There's nothing that really Excites me all too much Just because it is like that win heavy award So I really think that you're looking kind of in that 20 to 40 to one range on any guys that you might feel comfortable with Yeah, regarding dishawn watson. I was talking about my nfl win total Model and going through that and it did show value in the browns Is being a team that Might be a bit undervalued by the market as a team and that does correlate to this market because like you said you want to Bet quarterbacks on teams that will win a lot of games and if an nfl team is undervalued by the market There is a good chance that the quarterback is also undervalued by that market Now that thought does not apply to one guy I wanted to ask you about Because I think that the ravens are actually pretty appropriately priced in the in the in the like wind total market But what they are ryan is they're volatile in a good way and I think that volatility in this market is a positive because We don't really know what lamar jackson will look like with todd monkin as his offensive coordinator with Zay flowers in town with hopefully a healthy rashad bateman And I feel like the not knowing part is a massive bonus when it comes to lamar jackson He's 15 to 1 I think if I were to and I've not placed any MVP Bets because I just I feel very weird about locking up stuff for that long. So that's that's why I've not done that personally but If I won right now ryan, I'd have a I'm not going lamar jackson Just because we may see a more past centric offensive todd monkin may see a more Like modern. I don't know like I don't want to diss their old offense too much But like less archaic offense I feel like lamar jackson is the one who interests me most of 15 to 1 Any interest for you and lamar any thoughts or him at that number? Do you think it's pretty appropriate? Uh, what are your thoughts there? Yeah, it does feel appropriate. It does feel a little, uh, you know, I think that Getting him in the even the dak press got range and and probably not just in fields But like 18 to 1 would feel about right and there was so much Vlog going around lamar jackson and resigning with the ravens or what was going to happen there That i'm really shocked to kind of see it where it comes in but the books are smart So, um, that's how they beat you in lamar jackson's been a guy that I've bet for mvp I think the past three seasons Um, I just always love the situation that it's in and yes If he's going to be passing them all more like I don't even question his rushing ability Like he can just really break things if he does, you know Go out there and throw for over 3000 yards and ends up for rushing over a thousand yards Like he's capable of doing like record setting year that Why not take a chance on a guy like that? I do like they're they're often to outlook and we we know Again, that division is just going to be so competitive And that's the kind of stuff that I love betting on jim is when I you know, I kind of know that it's going to be You know a battle All season long and there's not really a clear favorite. I guess the bingles would be but um It just just always adds into the narrative of that it's going to be competitive The games are going to be exciting and if lamar jackson is able to beat the bingles twice in one season Like that's going to do a lot for his mvp odd. So yeah, um, that makes it fun for sure We talked about three of the four quarterbacks in the FC north. No love for kenny picket I'm not going to try to even talk you into that one at 40 to once Let's just talk instead about the coach of the year market where Really no favorite right now in the coach of the year market Dan Campbell is 10 to 1 shan peyton that eber flues both 12 to 1 So no real runway favor in the coach of the year market ryan When you look at this market specifically anyone stand out to you Yeah, let's go back to the ravens and talk about john harbaugh who comes in at 25 to 1 uh to win this i actually Not that i would prefer that over the 15 to 1 lamar because it's such a crapshoot when you're talking about Coach of the year and things that can happen and now brian day bull wins it last year and it could have Easily gone to nick siriani But you know i 25 to 1 for john harbaugh. He's kind of been in the mix before You always again when we're talking about narratives here, there's no bigger narrative I don't feel like then with coach of the year like the team has to be you know kind of Upset in a way It's coming out of nowhere insert brian day bull. Um, you have to be successful Giants made the playoffs. So um, I do like getting In the 20 to 1 range for this for this particular award because of all of that So I think you're looking at you know a guy like uh john harbaugh It it is hard for me to like think about coach bill bellicek winning an award like this But when you're thinking about 30 to 1 and you know if they were able to you know Take the dolphins to the woodshed take the bills to the woodshed like that that could be interesting But I always do look at like new coaches and the situations that they're in Um, even a guy like arthur smith who I thought would be really interesting Of course a lot of people probably are thinking that that's why he's at 16 to 1 because that nfc south division is just absolute trash So um if the falcons are able to get something out of ridder and you know Really build around vijan and the things that they have going on there That could be exciting 16 to 1 is is a favorable one that I would take Outside of the 20 to 1 odds. I think brandon staley too has a little bit of merit to him at 20 to 1 um the chargers, you know with With their outlook and I don't I don't know, you know, this also is a person Uh, it's a person driven award as far as like people voting for it. Jim, right? So I don't know how many people really Like or appreciate brandon staley in the league with the risks and things that he's able to do He's always getting blasted on blasted on social media and things like that for his decision making So if it came down to it, I don't know if they'd be able to pull the trigger on somebody like him But if he's able to do something with the chargers, um, you know, you love kelamore being there as the offensive coordinator With with uh herbert's outlook. I think that that has some merit to it as well Yeah, staley you mentioned like the the aggressiveness and that that angered like the old school football people But then last year angered all the nerds like me by being weirdly conservative and just like odd and like bottling up This cyborg quarterback confusing to let him through. I know it wasn't him as the oc But like, you know, that's why I went to kelamore and stuff like that But he angered both the nerds and old school football, which is tough to do So he managed to do that and that definitely could be a detriment as far as uh him in this market The one guy I thought was kind of interesting is denis allen 30 to 1 Kind of the same thought process you were using with arthur smith where nsc south is super wide open He has a new quarterback in derrick car, and I think the car is very flawed as a quarterback, but also pretty big upgrade over the conglomerate Of tasam hill and whatever the saints are running out there last year So I could see allen being somewhat interested not a first year head coach It's this is the second year at the helm But kind of bucking that trend of okay This was shawn patin's team that he managed to be okay with and stuff like that. I think that one is kind of interesting But I think that the reason I I haven't bet this I think that this award award mark this award is broken because The longest shot on the board is andy reed andy reed is 50 to 1 tied with Todd bowls and that does not make sense I know it like it does make sense as far as like actually betting this award But this award is broken and I hate it. So I have not bet it. I will not bet it But Dennis allen is somewhat interesting. I just like I stare at andy reed right and I'm like He should be coach of the year every year. It's like not cannot quite otani mvp levels But like just give andy reed the the award every year. It's wild. It's wild. Yeah those narratives.  I know they'll bite you Let's talk about the rookie of the year markets where things are Not settled with the favorite because we got will Anderson at four to one on the Defensive side of things B. John Robinson three to one on the offensive side of things But we do have favorites in both these departments. So ryan looking at both the offensive and defensive sides Which players do you think are undervalued most right now over a fan? Yeah, I think if we're talking about offensive side specifically I think there could be a case for cj stroud and usually we're talking about double digit Odds here on players like this. But when you're talking about rookie of the year Quarterback coming in houston traded up for him Could possibly be the number one pick at one point nine to one. This is actually moved Back a little bit. He was you coming in at the seven one range earlier on this year I think what the stuff that's going on in houston and you know kind of uncertainties there That's kind of lend itself to that also with anthony richardson to the thought of gardener and choose starting the season You know has led him to kind of be pushed down as well. I don't think that I'm sure a lot of people weren't even aware Sure that he was going to be starting at the season even when he was drafted So I think cj stroud does have some merit there if he can kind of you know play else 17 and you know keep the texans competitive I definitely like that bed and then we get into the receivers Um, I think it's you know really interesting to see the receivers down as far as they are You know even you know jackson Jordan quinton johnson at 25 to one like you know Keenan allen's been banged up. Mike Williams has been banged up if this guy is the you know healthy piece and We think herbert's going to be you know prolific pastor with kellen moore there and things that they do with three wide receiver sets Or had done in dallas and that comes to fruition With the chargers like 25 to one on a guy in a past heavy offense like sign me up for that all the time I think ze flowers even has some interesting merit to him. He's way down here But you talking about a first wrong guy Odell and richard bateman's been banged up and he's been a fantasy darling But if he's not the guy in ze flowers is I always find that interesting and then we have to scroll down jim keep scrolling Get to that 50 to one range My god, jonathan mingo being here like who is the number one receiver in carolina? I don't know at this point and I know that they you know invest the top pick In jonathan mingo there to go with brice young a rookie You know we talk about rookies and backup quarterbacks having reports with with some guys that they come in with Or on the units with and if jonathan mingo ends up being that guy For brice young through training camp. I think it's worth taking the shot We're talking about tying up our money for a while right jim and so you definitely want to make it worth it 50 to one like what you know what do you have to lose this guy could be explosive He had some he had some stuff that caught my eye On tape when looking at draft profiles So I definitely like the launch that's there when you're talking about the defensive rookie of the year This is one where you know, I really think that anybody who plays in idp leagues or Really invested in the defense that should get involved in this because we always see there's just not enough Knowledge around these guys from a general fantasy standpoint. So you tend to see These guys have longer odds than most because people are just bad in the top hippie favorites But I never usually dabble In this range, but if there's somebody that kind of catches my eye early on Before the numbers start changing too much. I will probably dabble a little bit You know mica parson's a lot was going on with dallas at that time as far as social media goes in the coverage of him And he was just so excited. I think they were on hard knocks the year he was drafted. So Or not hard knocks amazon. There was an amazon prime like show and he was getting hyped up And so that was a fun one to kind of you know be be on with but uh But yeah, I don't have any I don't have any really strong reads at the defense rookie of the year I just know that these odds It's same with defensive player of the year. They tend to be very top heavy So if you have any investment or if you keep track of what's going on with the market I think that there's definitely an advantage there for for people Yeah, I do want to go back to stroud here quickly I mentioned him at nine to one and I think that the point you made about like, you know, we need big value to Just about locking a bankroll this long is probably the best point against Jay stroud because nine to one How much value is there actually but I do think that there is enough here to Consider him because that offensive line. Houston is actually not bad. Honestly. Um, it's like decently. Okay There's a solid amount of continuity there The pass catchers Are fine. Um, but they're not terrible. I wouldn't say I'm not I'm very out in robber woods But like they've got some other guys who at least flashed last year. They did add dalton schultz as well. So There is a bit of that so I think that stroud is pretty interesting in nine to one. I like stroud a lot coming out. I was Flummoxed when there was so much steam against him in the nfl draft rumor mill where he was suddenly Potentially in the slide outside the first round I was ecstatic when he was taken second overall So I believe in him and I believe in the town I think this offense is actually not as bad as perception potentially and he gets to play all of his home games indoors along with One of his row or at least one of his divisional row games in indianapolis So a lot of games indoors, which is a plus two same thing for richardson In the exact same division, but I do find stroud pretty interesting in nine to one I think that if I were looking at a bet to place think that richardson or stroud would be the guy I would turn to there What about all the other awards ryan because we've got plenty offensive player of the year defensive player of the year Across those markets right now any other bets you like at this moment? Yeah, I think if we're just on that same vein with the rookies and looking at the rookie receiving yard leader I think that you know, that's kind of why jonathan mingle caught my eye because he's five On the rookie receiving yards list at 12 to 1 And then all the way down at 50 to 1 to be rookie of the year That just it's kind of a big discrepancy for me that I like to call out Um, I do like say flowers that tend to 1 to Just if we can get more Deep ball passing from lamar and have the big playability and he's on the field I do find that to have some merit to it So those those were two guys that I was looking at there just at their prices Other than that for for futures at this point. It's not really too much for me. I'm still looking at wind totals On themes and letting those come to fruition the browns being at nine and a half and plus money Is an interesting one, especially if i'm going to bet dishawn watson at mvp Teams to make the playoffs, you know, bears are plus money there You know, if you're betting in illinois, they actually have their own section Because of so many people getting traction on them But yeah, this is the fun time where you know, it's really just about dialed it being dialed in To beat reporters being dialed in when training camp starts and kind of seeing where things happen And also like where the where things are getting hyped up if you don't have a good feeling on Oh, no, I don't really see this coming to push and then kind of let the market play out let those guys, you know Get their numbers changed and and then take take shots on the guys um that you Maybe feel a little bit more confident in So I always find I always find this to be a fun time to get future bets in in july and august And then we don't think then we don't think about it We just set it and forget it Almost like our lineups gym that we talk about where you know, you're getting these long shot odds and just kind of Let them sit and you won't even be thinking about them come october november and then you go back and check And you're like wow like I actually had this guy at 40 to 1, you know, this is great or man I put a bet on this guy.  But it's always fun to be able to to go back and look at some of those things come to push him very exciting I did have a 2 a mvp bet a second year.  So we've I've been there for sure. I understand what you're saying Holy and Significantly for sure. All right. That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread. We back once again tomorrow We're talk some NASCAR in new Hampshire for this week We'll have baseball back on friday of pitching ninja joining us once again as well One big thank you to ryan williams for joining us as mentioned fine ryan on twitter at ryan out and zander underscore W ryan. I will see you in person on sunday for a fantasy football drafts looking forward to that but until then appreciate the time and Good luck looking through that portfolio portfolio once again Absolutely as always jim excited to get the call can't wait to get after it with you This football season and can't wait to see you on sunday my friend Looking forward to it. You can find me on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s. Make sure you're subscribed To covering the spread wherever you get your podcast also check us out on fan dual's youtube page and the fan dual tv plus app We'll talk to you all once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network