Welcome folks, we have the Dow investors right now trading down four Nasdaq's up 29, S&P's up 350, and yeah you don't hear that growl because my throat feels great, but when you're projected it doesn't feel great, but anyway, that will be over every day it's getting better. Gold, gold contract trading up by $4.80 at $19.44 an ounce, we get silver up $0.12, $23.81 an ounce, light sweet crude up $0.65, $0.90, $0.28 a barrel, notes and bonds. Ten-year note, up nine ticks trading $108.22, the 30-year up $26 at $1.1629, and king dollar. $10 right now trading up, up $197.6 trading $105.60, year old $106 again trading at $148 and British pound at $122.01 at U.S. dollar. Our phone number is<PHONE_NUMBER>, give us a call folks, I don't know what's going on in your world, in the world of the S&P's let's take a look at them, what do you have? Well, you came down hard yesterday with volume, you had a big expansion of volume and the S&P's case, what you did is you broke the swing and you broke the swing with volume and you know, your next stop, this is like, you know, we always talk about three-decker houses, the bottom line is that, you know, you just basically went, you know, you broke through the floor and so the next floor is laying down here at that $4.19, $4.20 area, that's how it's set up. You know, we had volume yesterday as I said at the top of the show here today, now you're getting below that number today but you don't really have an rejection of lower price, you know, somewhat, yeah, you really don't, I wouldn't trust this one here today. You got to $4.3055 and the swing point is the $4.3030.01 and we're at $4.3257, so you need the rejection, then you're going to get back inside this range and if we go to the cues, there's a different story inside the cues now. The cues are definitely more bullish than the S&P's. So if you take a look at the cues, you're going to see that the cues never took out its swing. You know, we come down hard, gapped away, you know, you had on a 70 million shares yesterday that was going at the 61, you have only 37 today, now that could be that, okay, you set up an ABC structure down. Either way, I suspect, more than likely, we're going to see the cues basically go after this swing and we'll see how this shakes out and it's all going to be, I'm going to do gold and everything else for you too but it's all about right here. This is just pretty amazing how the dollar is running, you know, they're running markets and it makes sense too because, you know, everything's bought with a currency and the bottom line is that the higher the currency gets, the stronger it gets, the weaker everyone else's currency gets and the number, you know, on the S&P 500, something like it's over like 50% earnings that come from overseas. So when this dollar gets strong like this, you know, bottom line is going to hit S&P numbers. So you can see, when you take a look at the way this is set up, you know, the magic number is 104-699. We're at 105-556. On Wednesday, we came down to that number, we got underneath that number and then said, C, you don't want to be here, came all the way back up.  So it's like, okay, those on a council chart and candlestick charting, those are negatives but the bottom line, we know that this thing is just plowed forward and it's going to take quite a bit for that to get under this level because the buyers came in hand over fist on Wednesday when Powell came out with his speech at 2.30. Now let's go take a look at the 10-year because the 10-year and the 30-year, they both broke their lows, they broke their swings. Out here today what you have is you only have 121,000 contracts. Let's take a look at this. So I don't think you got to the low of yesterday though. That's 108.08. It's interesting, we didn't. So it happened yesterday. You get out to 108.08 yesterday. You did 2.16 million shares, contracts or other. So you only get to 108.09 today and you've done 121.2 million contracts. It would have been better if that got under that number because then that would be saying, okay, there's no more sellers left. That's not what that's saying right now. And then if we take a look at this and we put this on a much larger position calendar-wise, what you're going to see is that when we're looking for, here folks when we're doing this, is that we're looking for the next swing point and where the some sort of support would be. So when we take a look at this, what you're going to see is that we're back to 2007, 2008 numbers. We're below the number a year ago and you're basically into, yeah, I mean, this thing can get a 104. It goes to 104, man. It's going to be pretty intense. It goes to 104. You're talking about a 10-year that's going to be running at 6%. Now the top of those levels are where we are kind of right now, the 108 to 109 level. So if we go like this, this is where this gets interesting. See, we're right there. And we'll see whether that's enough support or in fact what's going to happen is that it's going to blow this baby right through. And if we do take a look at the 30 and we do the same deal, and it's going to depend on, you know, the, well, of course it's depending on the Fed and just how much they want to squeeze the economy. I think they have to squeeze the economy in order to shut down inflation. So if we take a look at the 30, what you're looking at, we're also back to the 2010 level. Well, 116. Now what happens here, yeah, see, this got a lot of support right where we are right here. 116, what is that, 115? It doesn't look to me this. It's got to be hard to break this level on the 30. I mean, if you do break the 114, then we do have games 104, which would bring us back to 2006 levels. So, and that's the game. The game right now is all about interest rate structure. That's moving markets here because the rates not only went up, but they went up very quick. Now the market is saying, okay, are we going to go sideways? Are we going to get one more rate hike? And we're going to stay at that higher level for a longer period of time, you know, because it's going to make them go down, you know. Dow. Dow investors right now, 51,000, except 56, S&P's are up 12. Stay right there, folks. Come back.


Right. So continuing on, I think from actually matter of fact, what I'll do is I'll not in any particular order, but I want to probably answer this one first. As I know, I think Leah did answer this or this did ask this, I should say, and it's due with GDP cycles and really kind of finding out if there's a preferred range. And there isn't a range on with when it comes to GDP growth, right? So generally, you see the business is what's known as the I guess the business cycle, the economic cycle, right, where this is growth and this is time. And generally in an economic cycle use, you know, I'll say you start with, but you have, you know, boom, contraction, recession, bust or slump, recovery, expansion, and boom again. Right. And that's basically what's supposed to happen. Although, although there are, there is a caveat to that, is that just because you're in a certain phase or potentially in a certain phase doesn't mean that, you know, you can't go backwards, right? So you can easily go from a recovery, the recovery phase back to, I guess, bust or slump or in fact, you know, a recession, for example. Right. And then that could be the loop, because ultimately two negative quarters, right, of GDP growth, right, equals a recession. Right. It's basically what's known as a recession. So it's a recession. So you could be recovering. And if the central bank don't manage the economy, let's say, for example, currently, they start hiking interest rates a bit too aggressively, for example, that could send the economy back into a recession. Now, I guess the question is, is understanding where we are in an economic cycle? And you won't, I mean, you can know by looking at GDP data, right? And what you'll see generally on a chart of GDP growth is you'll tend to see, you know, something like this, for example, right, where, you know, if you're in the growth phase, you can, you know, there are, you know, quarters where you might get a bit of a pullback, but overall, over a period of time, generally, you're only up and up. And you'll know whether you're in the recovery expansion phase or even a boom phase, just from looking around you, right, are there jobs, are there, is there, is there low unemployment or high unemployment? Is there high employment or low employment? You know, are people spending money again, people going on holiday again? You know what I mean? Like, then you'll know whether the economy is really just, you know, coming out of the recovery to the expansion phase.   Think about, you know, don't know how old everyone is, but you'll know, you should know the difference really, when things are good or when things aren't good in an economy, or even if they're not good for you personally, just maybe generally, when things are okay, where you don't necessarily have to worry or people in general aren't worrying about, you know, employment, there's jobs, vacancies, etc. So that from that perspective, you don't necessarily, you can all you can kind of tie it together. So right now, right now, where are we in terms of where are you, Leah, in the world? Where are you? Where do you live? London. London for Londoner. Hi, you're all right. So, all right. So, so right now, would you say that we are in the recession phase? No. Okay, would you say that we are somewhere maybe between the recovery and expansion phase? Yes. Yeah, that's, and that's exactly it, right? You know, I mean, and it's pretty much that and you can see it on, you know, when GDP is generally growing, right? So as long as we're not in those two, you know, negative quarters, you know, quarter on quarter reading, QOQ. Yeah, and you know, GDP is generally growing, then fine, there will be periods of where GDP might be flatlining, right? But that doesn't necessarily mean we're, we're, we're, you know, going into a recession, it might just mean that, you know, maybe the recovery is taking a bit longer to potentially go into the expansion phase or not, right? We could go back again, back into the recession phase. But the point is, we're probably somewhere between here and here. Yeah. And so, and again, also with fundamental analysis, what we're trying to do is not always look at where we keep one eye obviously on where we are currently, but also one eye on where we're potentially going because the market is trying, always wants to price in what future value potentially is current and future value, right? But you always, you always have to have one eye on where future value is or potentially, you know, going to be. So if, for example, you know, in the UK, we start to grow, right? And things start to look really good, employment starts to grow, unemployment starts to, you know, go down, then you would particularly, you'd keep an eye on that on those metrics, right? And then what you would do is look to potentially buy the pound, right? At the moment, the pound and the UK economy, I guess is what we should be looking at is struggling a bit, right? It's struggling. And the Bank of England are, you know, pretty much saying this point that high inflation, which is, you know, the cost of living, I guess, and, you know, the energy crisis that we're currently going through in, like I said, high inflation may tip everybody, well, say everybody, but the economy back into a recession, right?  Last time I looked at it was like 167 or something like that, near me, £1.67 per litre, you know, cost of electric has gone up, as you know, and the gas and energy and just food in general, right?   Because then you may have to end up cutting staff. And if you're cutting staff, then that adds to unemployment, then that's employment. Then you're heading back into a scenario that creates the struggling business. And I think I couldn't get my head around what it is, what is the, what is it that creates the struggling, but you're right, we are working our way towards that, as we see it. Exactly. And it's, and we fundamental analysis is understanding that and just keeping your eye on those metrics and what we look at. So unemployment, employment, inflation, and just really just reading up on, and I'm not saying that you've got to sit there every day and read through like hundreds of articles or anything like that. Generally, I don't, right? I just try to just focus on the main topics again, which is GDP inflation interest rates. And then from there, I can see what is coming down the line, or what is likely to potentially come down online. Am I going to be right 100% of the time? No, because things can change. No economist is going to be a no, you know, trader going to be right 100% of the time. But we always have to go with what is likely. Yeah. And it looks likely.  This is the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, as well as, you know, the other voting members is basically saying that there's going to be potentially tough times ahead, right? So from that perspective, where do we then position ourselves when it comes to trading? So when it comes to trading now, remember that we are trading one against the other, right? So it's always like you're looking at your comparing a straight fight between, for example, the pound, and for example, the dollar, right? Pound dollar. When you're looking at GDP growth, you're seeing, you know, who's the better out of two? Right? And we can see this on the fundamental analysis spreadsheet. But, you know, basically the dollar is ranked one and the UK, I guess, the pound is ranked number three. Now, also, as well, this ties into the currency cycle, right? So we understand also, not from an economic cycle perspective, but a currency cycle perspective. Now, we understand that just because something is ranked number three doesn't mean that it's an automatic buy in the same way that just because something is ranked number one doesn't mean it's an automatic buy. We need to understand why something is likely to remain strong or appreciate in the future, or why a currency that is currently, you know, strong may want to take, you know, maybe devalue or depreciate. And again, that just comes with understanding fundamentals. So for me, I think the pound is on its way down is probably going to devalue. Now, I'm not saying that this is going to be set in stone. This is what it looks like. This is what it looks like, right, from just me reading the data, looking at what the analysts are saying, what the Bank of England are saying, you know, what the banks are saying. And so I think it's currently three now. Yes, you could argue that the Bank of England is still hiking rates, which they are. But after that hike, yeah, so after that hike, what happens? And this is where I guess we could talk about timing comes involved, the timing of when you want to get short. So is it prudent to necessarily get short now? Well, that's a judgment call. And if you are, then I would say probably the best thing to do would be to not risk a full position. But I think after the Bank of England do finish hiking rates, because it doesn't look like they're going to hike rates again after that, because they have to kind of wait and see how a hiking rates has is going to affect the economy because if they hike rates too much, because remember, we've got inflation problems, which is the cost of living problem. But then on top of that, if you, for example, have a mortgage or any, you know, loans, variable, then it's going to hurt you because the cost of repaying those loans or the mortgage is going to go up, right? So then you're going to have even less money. You know, I mean, exactly going to have even less money if you think energy bills and food costs are skyrocketing when you hike interest rates. And, you know, depending on, you know, your mortgage repayments that can add an extra couple of hundred pounds on top of that. So then you're definitely not going to go out and spend money, which then the economy suffers if, you know, it requires you to spend money, and it could end up putting you or the economy in a recession sooner. And this is what central banks understand from a very, you know, from a very elementary level, right? It's obviously a bit more you know, a lot more complex complexities to that. But ultimately, that's what it comes down to. That's the bare bones of it. So that's why the Bank of England are, yeah, hiking interest rates can hurt struggling businesses and create struggling. Exactly. It's like a feedback loop, right? So the Bank of England are trying to gauge and all central banks are trying to gauge where the sweet spot is with interest rates and raising interest rates as to what level the economy and people can generally still operate without, you know, it hurting people, you know, and hurting people's, you know, say, say, savings, in fact, your savings will go up, but when it comes to things like spending, yeah, so it's a balancing act with being a central bank is, you know, one of the toughest jobs in the world to run an economy, right? So these are the things that they have to think about, right? On a very, like I said, a very kind of basic level. So that's why hiking rates, I guess many of you have seen that situation where or you've seen headlines where it's like, are we heading into a recession? So what they're saying is, is that because of a hike in interest rates, and what they're inferring to, I guess, is basically what I've been saying, if you hike interest rates too much, yeah, yes, inflation may come down. But if inflation comes down, then, you know, that's, that's brilliant, because, because central banks have a mandate to get their, you know, inflation to the 2% target.  Maybe I'm paying, you know, 1200, 300, where all my spare cash that I would have used to save and go on holiday and, you know, and maybe buy a new car and do other things, right, now is being taken up with mortgage costs. You know, I mean, so it's a, it's a balancing act, right? It's a balancing act. That's what is this all is with the economy. But generally, but in general, that, you know, answering that question is far as far as does GDP have a target or preferred range? It doesn't have a preferred range as long as, you know, you're just more looking at the trends and which way it's generally going and also as well, you know, two negative quarters of GDP growth would equal a recession. So does anyone have any questions on that?


In the name of Allah, the Gracious, the Merciful. Assalamu alaikum, my name is Amina Abdullah, I am the Community Services Manager at MCC East Bay. My name is Sahara Ahmed and I am the Community Services Assistant. My name is Rahim Qudus, I am one of the volunteers here since the Masjid opened. My name is Muhammad and I am the Operations Manager for the MCC Car Program. MCC is one of the largest community centers in the East Bay serving thousands of Muslims. This Ramadan, one of our goals is to replenish our zakat funds. Your zakat donations help support MCC's rental assistance program, a car program, a thriving food pantry, and the refugee assistance program. These programs prioritize serving single mothers, victims of domestic violence, and families with children. We start the refugee relief effort right after everything happened in Afghanistan, but on a daily basis we help from everything, such as apartment setups to providing food packages, hot meals, hygiene kits, strollers for their children. We set up four refugee bazaar so far, really refreshing to be able to help them and also it's very heartwarming to see the smiles on their faces as they leave our bazaars with bags full of all these gifted items from us. We average two apartment setups per week and we provide everything for their kitchen, bathroom, and bedroom needs. Our goal with this program going forward is to help the newly settled Afghan refugees by allowing them to become more independent but also continue to support them and their new life adjusting here in the United States. Salam alaikum everybody, my name is Akeem and today I will be talking about why you should donate to the MCC food pantry. Your donation will help the poor and give them food and inshallah money so they can live a better life. I've been helping with the food pantry since the start of Corona and we started from the beginning of Corona from a small closet that we have in one of the classrooms to now over a thousand square feet of space that we are using as part of the Sunday School. Now it's over a thousand square feet. We started from asking our community for donation and they start bringing their food from their own pantries or from a store, new used food, anything they had they start bringing for us. Every Saturday giving to at the beginning we had like 16 families to help. Now we have over three hundred forty or three hundred fifty families that we are helping. We got help also from Alameda County churches, community members, we are purchasing our own produce. We're getting diapers from helping mother out. So we're giving every other Saturday the family that they need diapers, we give them diapers, we give them fresh produce. We give them staples, dry food, anything that we have, we make packages, separate packages for them. A few times a year we give them meat. Either it's a chicken, ground beef, lamb, goat, meat, anything that we get donation we give it to these needy people. Moving forward our goal is to expand the food pantry. The space we have is small and beside that is a part of the Sunday School and hopefully in September if the school starts they need their space. So we are moving out to a bigger facility. With the help of Alameda County we are getting a larger stand-alone space that we can help the needy people in our community. The CAR program is an initiative that's been around as long as MCC has had. It's a Zakat program. Anyone who is Zakat eligible is able to apply for a car and if they are approved they can be placed in the queue to receive a car. At least we've passed 200 cars to date in the last seven years. Things were pretty even flowed initially. Cars here and there. But during COVID both need and supply for a period of time both really really picked up. A lot of people had excess cars. They wanted to donate and as well as we had a lot more recipient supplying for cars. Who's current transportation needs did not no longer fit what they were doing in light of what was going on with COVID. We also have if we've developed relationships with a couple of mechanic shops in the area one in Fremont and one in Concord and when our Zakat eligible recipients our clients need help fixing the vehicles we are able to facilitate that form. Zakat doesn't end so we work to facilitate to improve the likelihood of our Zakat eligible clients to have better outcomes and to have more stability in their life. The list only gets longer and shorter it doesn't ever end. Please donate your Zakat al-Fitr to MCC so that we can ensure that all of our Zakat families spend their Eids in happiness and prosperity inshallah.


So, everybody already knows about the Leica M6 at this point. But why? Why is the Leica M6 daddy? Join me in discovering the truth on unsolved analog mysteries. Today's episode is sponsored by Squarespace. Well, as a wise man once said, the years start coming and they don't stop coming, and 2020 was one of the worst of all, so I decided to end the year with a bang. I decided to purchase the Leica M6 through a friend of mine. Well, not so much a friend, but a dead body, and not so much as purchased as dug up his grave. I was grave-ropping. Okay, dumb jokes aside, I've actually been shooting with this camera for about 3 months now with one goal in mind, to get to the bottom of why it's so beloved by everyone. Believe me, I wanted nothing to do with the hype train surrounding this particular camera. When you think of a Leica, specifically the M6, you probably start thinking about how it's expensive because it's considered to be luxury, as well as how some Leica owners will dump their piping hot pour over down your pants if you even suggest that the Nikon F3 is a better camera. But is it possible to imagine a world where the Leica M6 is more than just looks and is actually a solid all-around camera? Personally, I'm not ride or die for Leica like some people, but the M6's legendary status is definitely no secret amongst us film nerds. We are going to be talking about the Leica M6, the Leica M6, the Leica M6, the Leica M6, the Leica M6, the Leica M6, the Leica M6, the Leica M6. I mean, why is it so special? At the end of the day, it takes the same standard 35mm frame. There are hundreds of other film cameras out there that do the exact same. Stevie Edlin once made the point that cameras are nothing more than machines used to collect data and that your focus and other efforts should be put on other aspects of the workflow. I think that that point is especially true for film photography. I think it's generally accepted that your lens and film choice, as well as ultimately how sh** you have a photographer you are, make more of an overall contribution to your shot at the end of the day. But with all that in mind, maybe it's not so much about the final image with the M6. What if, since there are other cameras that can produce the same image, it's actually more about using a quality tool, like a gastroenterologist, we're gonna dive deeper into that. Leica shooters always say that there's something tingly deep down that just feels good about using a Leica, but I didn't really buy into the hype, even back when I had an M3. Sure, it did feel well-built and distinct while I was using it, but it wasn't that special warm caressing feeling that everyone talked about. However, things started to change for me after finally shooting with the Leica M6. It's not like other girls, I mean cameras. I can't explain it. It just feels good to use.  When I smash the advanced lever, it reminds me of a simpler time. When all I had to do in a day was go to daycare, eat Play-Doh, throw up, and then nap the rest of the afternoon. Is it possible that using a camera that makes the overall shooting experience more enjoyable pushes you to want to get out and shoot more, which forces you to practice and become a better photographer? It's a stretch, but it could explain part of the Leica M6's popularity.    I remember thinking at one point, maybe the M6 gained its sudden popularity because there was a lot of initial interest in how cool it looked. I mean, it does have looks that can kill, especially compared to its predecessor, the M5. Just because it looks cool, though, doesn't mean it's not a well-designed camera. It likely just means it'll catch your eye sooner. And so what if it does? Sometimes it is just nice to use cool-looking cameras. And you know what, if it gets you out there and shooting, then why does it matter? This camera's whole aura is nothing short of sensual, but what if by gosh, it was also just a solid all-around camera? I mean, Ken Rockwell, the camera gangster, even went so far as to call it a superb camera by any gauge. Thanks, Ken. You can have a dollar to support your growing family. The M6 is compact, built to last, will attract a potential mate, and best of all, it has a very simple to use, but solid light meter. And to even one up that, the light meter is TTL, which means it's reading the light coming through the lens. This is a very solid preventative measure for dumbasses like me who shoot with their lens cap on, on cameras that feature non-TTL meters. Looking at you, Mamiya7. Moving on, simple and compact cameras with quiet shutters have been the staple of street photographers and stalkers throughout time. I think cameras that are simple and straightforward allow the photographer to be more in the moment when they do their thing. And the more the camera can be out of the way, the better. But don't let your Pentax 6.7 hear that. Under the lens hood, it's all mechanical. Batteries are optional if you'd like to use the light meter. Being a mechanical camera in today's day and age is what is kind of proving to be the gold standard for film cameras. A lot of older photography equipment with electronic components have been witnessed to fail and thus kind of harder to fix. What? I'm not saying that mechanical cameras don't fail either, but it certainly seems like repairs for them are more readily available. Additionally, most M6s are relatively new in the film camera world. They were constructed from around 1984 to 2002, which is sometime around when I was grown in the test too. This Leica M6 here dates back to being manufactured in 1996. That really wasn't that long ago compared to a lot of film cameras. And it's nice to have 25 year old mechanics in it versus 60 year old mechanics in the Leica M3. If you think it's not about the motion of the ocean and in fact, bigger is better then you might be conflicted with this camera. While this camera's only five inches across, it harbors a very clear rangefinder patch and a humongous viewfinder.  In the viewfinder, you have good frame line flexibility as well. With frame lines for 28 millimeter, 35, 50, 75, 90 and 135 millimeter. So that's quite a solid line of focal lengths for any rangefinder, especially when most rangefinders only have frame lines available for 50 millimeter. Lastly, perhaps one of the biggest reasons to invest in the M system is its line of lenses. It's no secret. Leica lenses are highly regarded, though largely only usable on Leica cameras and now mirrorless cameras. There are other cameras out there that use the M mount as well. So this point isn't super valid. I just thought it was another small reason that many photographers choose to invest in the M6. And yeah, I am aware of the fact that I use a cheap and dirty peasant lens on this M6, but that's by choice. I actually dig this lens a lot. It's the Jupiter 12 35 millimeter F 2.8 and it's an L 39 threaded lens. So I have to use an L 39 to M adapter, which helps set the frame lines and align the rangefinder patch. I mean, depending on what you're looking for in an image, sharpness isn't the end all be all, but that's a topic for another time. But since time is a construct, how about constructing your own online portfolio with today's sponsor, Squarespace? If you're like me and want to spend more time out in the field creating, then why not have an easy to set up but solid online domain that you can count on? Squarespace is a very popular website building platform that features a plethora of different templates and designs to choose from. I recently reconstructed my website to show off more of my photography work and I found the best template for me to do that was through the Wells template. It was super easy and straightforward to upload my photos and arrange them in a visually pleasing manner, like photography, charcuterie. And the end result is a polished, professional looking website that would impress even the most hardened potential client. If you're way smarter than me by being handy with coding, Squarespace features the ability to throw in your own custom scripts for an even more personal touch. So what are you waiting for? If you're ready to build a website, you can start a free trial today at squarespace.com slash grainydays. And if you use the code grainydays at checkout you can get 10% off your first purchase. So there you have it, a camera that looks good, feels good to use, has a TTL light meter, has access to quality like a lenses, is largely mechanical and harbors a huge viewfinder with a solid range of frame line choices. This camera is a home run and seeing why it's so popular is easy, easier than I was in college. So let's just face facts. The M6 is an expensively popular camera simply because it's just a great 35 millimeter camera. And I've been with a lot of cameras. The huge downside to this camera is of course that it's expensive as hell and the price is just going up. And I suppose talking about the camera on video doesn't really help with that, but I must ask, have you seen the prices lately? They've already been driven up. But there is hope. Leica announced earlier this year that they're working on a new Leica film rangefinder for budget consumers with a style akin to the M6. And I'm pretty sure in that moment I knew exactly what it was like to be stranded on an island drinking my own piss to look up and see a rescue ship on the horizon. I mean, a brand new film camera from a major camera developer in 2021. What's next? Contacts Awakens from the Grave and announces the Contacts 6452. So does the Leica M6 make you an overall better photographer? No. Good photography comes from the soul or whatever is left of your soul. And just like how practice kissing a baked potato with lipstick on it doesn't make you better at making out, the Leica M6 won't be the end all be all that makes your photography stand out. There are a lot of other great camera options out there, but if you want a quality tool that won't let you down and you can afford it, then by all means go for it. You won't be disappointed.


Hey everyone, welcome to today's day trading update today is Thursday, October 1st small green day again today booked $330 and 63 cents So really just hit a bunch of singles today Not even any doubles really my I had two winners Shopify and zoom were both 215 bucks and Then my biggest loser that was actually part of a pairs trade But then my biggest loser is AMD of minus 240, but I had a bunch of small winners in Six be the British pound just took a little winner just testing the micro futures there 63 bucks pairs trade in Nasdaq Dow, so net net lost about a hundred and Little over a hundred bucks there In oil QM micro took a hundred fifty dollar profit there AMD minus 240 Boeing minus 90 Boba minus 200 beyond 80 JPM 190 Mu minus 170 Nike is not a day trade That's when I've been holding and we'll continue to hold for at least the remainder of this week and maybe into next week Peloton 201 Roku 70 Shopify 215 Tesla 135 Uber minus 180 and zoom plus 215 So let's take a look at what we did here starting with 6b in The futures market, so we took this one Right out of the gate. This was our first trade of the morning and These these futures actually open earlier than the normal stock market So we had this big push down and when we were in the room starting about 830 There's this consolidation pattern under this pivot, so we wanted to see a continuation and that's what we got here So I captured this this there just did a few contracts there. Those are super small So just booked a small profit QM in oil so an oil Price came down and started consolidates like I just cut a little piece to the downside there AMD minus 240 What do we do in AMD in AMD? That was a that was a long Oh, yeah, so we we got in Right here what it's kind it was holding above the pivot line here We were looking for a continuation up and I just got flushed out right there So just closed it out took a loss one thing you'll notice is you know What we've really been focusing on doing is is really cutting losers really short and then just trying to let our winners run As long as possible that I would say that's one thing that I actually did not do very well today Is there some that I could have gotten a lot more profit?  Let's take a look at Baba Let's see in Baba. What was I doing there? I was I was trying to get short. Oh, yeah So price made this big push down Bounce back up to the pivot and I was really just looking for a continuation lower off that pivot But it once it pushed up above there. I just I just closed it out. I just took a small loss there Beyond meat And beyond just caught a as it started to flush lower and then move sideways I just cut a little piece to the downside there JP Morgan was a decent winner In JP this price came into negative territory here that by this red line Look like it was gonna stay positive came down and touched it and when it stayed when it kind of confirmed being positive again I caught this runner here in JPM Mu Minus 170. Oh, yeah, so em you this was actually a couple different trades Is Consolidating above this pivot kind of made a push down and Inbounce and so it kept making these pushes down push down and then getting rejected pushing back up So I thought we're gonna get a continuation to the upside That didn't happen ended up getting getting flushed out there. So I took a little loss in MU Peloton Peloton was a nice one This one just ended up kind of grinding but had a big push initially started consolidating So I got I got long right in this area here right above the pivot and that's and it worked out Well, just kind of kept wasn't a big move wasn't a big push higher But just kind of continued to grind higher hit new all-time highs and ended up just kind of closing this out about noon It's trading kind of sideways here. I assume it'll probably continue higher But again, I'm just not interested in sitting in front of my computer all day Roku booked a small winner Shopify I ended up taking a little piece of Shopify here was it came down to yesterday's high started consolidating And I just got a little piece here. There was a lot more to go This is when I just closed out too early just because I wanted to be done for the day Tesla was the same way This is one that really took off But it was showing signs of kind of weakness all day just kind of slide and slide and then finally it made A big charge higher and when it pulled back here I got long right in this area here and I just wrote it back up to this recent high So I just kind of wrote it up here booked a little profit But I missed this entire move just because I wanted to be done for the day, which you know that happens and that's okay Uber a little bit of a loser and In uber what were we trying to do we were trying to get long here on uber. Oh, yeah, so as it just kind of Came down. I was just trying to pick a spot to get long here a little bit more countertrend A little bit different than I usually trade but ended up getting just flushed out there. So it took a small loss on uber Actually that was two different trades one was a winner one was a loser net net Actually, I'm sorry That is that is not correct. That was I was thinking of a different stock This was this was actually a mighty 90 trade where price price made an initial push higher pulled back and Then I was looking for a continuation I Ended up trying to add to the position down here never got filled and it did bounce and so I took a loss on this initial piece made a I did I did get filled on my ad right here and so caught some of that for the winning piece, but net net 180 dollar loser so and then lastly zoom This is kind of a similar to what I was talking about on MU except for this one worked out where we kept getting these pushes lower pushes lower pushes lower and then it would rebound back in a positive territory like it it wanted to test the waters of being negative But then just jump back up and so we ended up We got got stopped out one time and then when it pushed back up here I got back in and and caught some of this up move here. It came down and I caught some of this here So all in all plus 330 dollars and 63 cents Decent little green day. You guys have any questions. Let me know. Otherwise, we'll be live trading again tomorrow on Friday. See you there


When you compare the means of multiple groups, the most common approach is the analysis of variants. But sometimes you want to use a quantitative or continuous variable as a predictor as well. In that case, the most common choice is going to be the analysis of covariance or ANCOVA. Fortunately, this is really easy to do in Jmovi. And to demonstrate this, I'm going to use the iris data set. And what this gives is data on three species of iris flowers. Here's the sitosa and the versicolor and the virginica. And for this, it gives the length and width of the petal and the sepal, which looks like a petal, of 50 flowers of each species. And what we're going to look at is the sepal width in particular. Now, I want to start by showing you this one thing.  And I want to take the sepal width as the variable and we'll get a density plot for this. And what you can see for this is that, well, we have this basically normal distribution. But if we split it by species, then we see some big differences. Mostly, we see that the blue density plot here at the top for a sitosa, it looks basically bigger than the green and the red ones for the other two species. And so we may want to do an analysis of variance to compare these. So the way you would do that is by simply setting up the one-way analysis of variance. But I do want to show you a complicating factor here. And that is that the sepal length is a predictor as well. And in fact, the way we're going to do that is by coming back to exploration. And if you have the scatter module installed, if you don't, you install it by going to the plus on the right side where it says modules, and you install scatter SCATR. I'm going to use the scatter plot here. And we're going to use the sepal length as a predictor of sepal width. Now sepal width is the one that we're interested in. And what you see right here is if I put a regression line through it and I even put a standard error, that's basically flat. There's no association between these two things overall. And I'm going to close this so we can save this one. But then I'm going to do it again. I'm going to come down to scatter again. And I'm going to put sepal length on the x-axis as a predictor and sepal width on the y-axis as the outcome. But this time I'm going to break it down by species. And now what you see is when we put it there is there's this really big separation. The red group is the sitosa ones. And those are the ones that we saw as larger when we looked at their density. This means that an analysis of covariance might be an appropriate thing. So let's go and do that right now. We go to ANOVA and come down to ANCOVA for analysis of covariance. And we've got a lot of options here, but I want to go through and show you just the basics. The first thing is the dependent variable or the outcome. And we're using sepal width. I'm going to put that right there. Fixed factors is the nominal or categorical variable that you're using to define the groups. And in this case, that's species. And you can see the table's filling in and it's telling us that there is a difference between the species that they are not all the same. But I'm also going to take sepal length and put that in as a covariate right here. And now we have this table that says that species has a statistically significant effect. It's actually really strong. As does sepal length. Now, what we want to do is use a partial eta squared as a way of looking at the relative contribution of these two. And we see that species has a partial eta squared of 0.56. That means that the species can account for 56% of the variance in the outcome sepal width all on its own. And the sepal length can account for 28% on its own. These don't add up. These are separate considerations, but you can use them to compare them with each other. But we have a lot of other options for things we can do. For instance, depending on how many variables you have, and if you want to have interactions, you can specify that in the model. And I want to put in an interaction right here because if you look at this chart, not only do these lines differ in how high they are vertically, which would be their y-intercept, they also differ in their slope, which is the association between the length and the width. So I want to include that as an interaction. So I'm going to select the both of these to a shift click to get both. And then say add the interaction. And now you can see that the species effect has gone way down. It was much higher before. And the interaction between the two has become important. You also have certain assumptions like the homogeneity of variance and like the QQ plot of residuals. I'm going to do that one because we want the residuals or the amount of error that's left over after our prediction to be approximately normally distributed. They would all fall on the diagonal if they were perfect normal distribution. These are close, so we're not far off. You can specify specific contrasts if you have different groups you want to do. And you can use these. I'm not going to bother with that right now. But maybe you want to do post hoc tests. Now we only have one factor in that species, but it does have three groups. And so we put that over here, and it's going to do the 2K comparison by default. And from this we can see that CITOSA differs significantly from both versicolor and virginica. The p-value here is well below the standard cutoff of .05. But the versicolor and virginica have a lot of overlap, and so they are not significantly different from each other. And then finally, we can get estimated marginal means. Now these aren't going to tell us anything new because we already have the means for the different groups. But if you had a more complicated design, you could put those in there along with interactions and get the means charts for the factor predictors. But for a model with one categorical variable, one nominal variable, and that's the species, as well as a single covariate, which in this case is sepal length. And then using those jointly to predict the sepal width in the analysis of covariance, you can see how this can get set up and allow you to do a little more drilling down to get some more insight from your data. And you can find the patterns that are going to be of most theoretical and most practical interest when doing the ANCOVA in JMOVI.