offer or propose maybe to leave this three problems in chapter eight in the homework okay and have a do let's say Friday this week but if you've done it by one is that that's fine but whatever that is okay let's see the final exam I'll post it on the web tonight so I'll email you so so it will be due on Wednesday May 12 let's say 5 p.m. originally was I mean in class was supposed to be on Monday a week from today but being a take-home I said you know it just you can have two more days so let's see the final exam so this would be posted to be posted later tonight and I'll email everybody so just try to have a look at it before Wednesday so we can if there are any questions we can discuss them on Wednesday also I'll have some extra office hours so let's have office hours so this week will be on Tuesday tomorrow from 1.30 to 3 and usual Wednesday 10 to 11 but it's not a very popular time I'll also be here on Friday if you're between I guess 10 and 12 if you have questions feel free to stop by let's see I think that's all I had for the announcements I handed in the solutions to the last homework so you know post solutions to the last home to homework number 10 on Friday so okay so I want to make the new Friday by noon okay so I can post solutions and let's see anything else I was sad to see that the oil spill is actually now it's gotten such a huge issue right keeps keeps coming for those of us that had a good time in New Orleans for some time you can appreciate I mean how bad this is okay so let's see so the plan for basically today on Wednesday is to talk a little bit about Markov chains unless unless they're any and of course yes yeah it's a good idea to keep make a copy of your home of your own homework when you submit it now try to grade it by you know next week by Monday say sorry no there's no class they've changed the policy yeah the final will be on chapter six seven and eight so just on the kind of chaotic behavior and probably probabilistic yeah no because I I've made myself an image of what that causes okay so let's let's just talk about we have limited time so I don't know how much we'll be able to do on Markov chains but some of you that already took or taking the stochastic modeling class probably seen this extensively so the point here is I would like to talk about some processes that are random and they have only discrete number of states so it is it is kind of limiting to only certain models I mean you can only use this for certain situations but but it's kind of a start of the more broad the broad topic of stochastic model models so basically in the physical models the physical model models that you know the underlying physical model system excuse me is that takes only finite number of states and that can transition between states with certain probability with some probability these usually can be modeled with so-called Markov chains or a Markov chain and what's important to understand is that transitions between states can only take a place at at like finite intervals of time so it's a discrete so this is a discrete model stochastic model the transitions take place at regular if you want intervals of time every second every hour every day or you know doesn't have to be regular but it's just a prescribed time so it's not a continuous dependence of the state and let's call so system schematically if for instance if this physical stator takes three physical system can take one of three states so every moment of time you have the state one characterizing the system or state two or state three characterizing the system and with possibility of moving from at regular you know at intervals distinct intervals of time from like state one to state two with a certain probability and we're going to introduce this notation of p i j to be the probability of the system in state i to transition or jump to state j okay and you have also certain probability of the system from state two to move to the state three and so forth right and of course you could have e3 1 you could have that the system that stays you know is in state one stays in state one and that would be p 1 1 p 2 2 p 2 3 now oftentimes if if any of this probability is 0 you know maybe you just don't draw that that arrow or that edge right also it's possible that the system is from state to move back to state one and so forth right state one to state three so this would be sort of a oops this would be a complete graph but notice that I mean keep in mind that some of this probably is maybe zero okay and there is an example we're going to talk about that has probability zero and some some of it so certainly that these numbers are between zero and one as being probabilities and there's another very important property of these and that is if you're if you're in any of the states the next iteration of the system so the next time you have to go somewhere I mean either you have to also be in another state so so if you're in state one with hundred percent probability so it's certain that you're gonna either be in state one two or three in the next time interval and that amounts to saying that the sum of the probabilities let's see if you state i and you summing up over j so p i j again if you have three states is going to be for each i from one to two to three but for each state you have the sum of p i j run over j to be one okay so this leads to to keep this kind of self-contained it's easy to introduce or to keep this numbers in a metric so transition metrics p capital p stands for p 1 1 p 1 2 p 1 3 in this case with 3 p 2 1 p 2 2 p 2 3 p 3 1 p 3 2 p 3 3 and what's what's important about this metric is that the row sums of the sums along each row are all equal to one and of course they're all positive I mean excuse me between zero and one it could be some could be zero or one our sums are positive equal to one okay so this defines p is called such a p so such a metrics that has these properties is called oops okay p is called stochastic metrics if all entries are positive and the rows or sums equal to one yeah or not negative okay so here's here's the example that to start with so the example is this inventory inventory problem that's number 8.1 okay and it has to do with I guess inventory of aquarium aquariums or aquarium I don't know what's the plural here but what happens is at the end of each week there is an inventory that's that's being done and depending on how many were sold during that week certain certain strategy for ordering for the next week are used so the policies that if there is nothing left so everything if everything was sold at the end of the week then there's going to be three aquariums so there are going to be three aquariums ordered right for the next week if there is any you know if the if the there's at least one aquarium in stock then there's nothing ordered the policies based on the observation the store only sells an average of one aquarium per week okay so it's saying that if even if there is only one in store at the end of the week it's likely that's no more than one on average is going to be sold so they're not going to order okay so so why is this system sort of modeled using the Markov chain or you know I guess in its simplest the simplest approach is to think about this number of number of aquarium at the end of the week okay so there could be or at the beginning of each week okay so the beginning of each week you would have one two or three can you have zero well if you had zero at the end of the week the next day you order three right so you really never have zero that's why zero is not a state so this is okay but that's the question okay but that's the question the question okay so so okay but but let me let me clarify so so these this represent the state the inventory at the beginning of each week okay so you cannot have zero because you bought us free if if you had zero okay then you bought us free so you started week always with something the question though the question asks is what if during that that next week your the demand is actually higher than what your inventory is what's the probability of that happen so we're assuming that the time interval between order and receiving yeah we're ignoring that no yeah we're ignoring everything yeah simplest possible as soon as we order we have stuff yeah it's next door okay garage sale whatever okay so all right so so there is there's gonna be probabilities of something happening for instance what's the probability that you start one week with with inventory of one right and you move the following week with the inventory of two I'm sorry I'm sorry this is it's a little bit I mean to get to the property to the to the actual probability it's a little bit we need to go through another another step so that is the following so so let's call xn to be the number aquarium aquariums at the beginning of a week n okay and let's call dn to be that the demand for aquariums during that week during weekend yeah so trying to figure out what's the probability of moving from one state to another okay all right so I have we have the following there's a probability that you are in state one and you are in the next week you're gonna be in state one okay well that probably is obviously gonna be equal to the probability that the demand during that week is zero okay so we'll talk a little bit more about this what's called conditional probability but clearly you're gonna start with you know one aquarium and the following week you're gonna have one aquarium if there was nothing sold right so the first thing to to decide is what should be the probability that the demand is zero or what is the probability that demand is any any given number okay well so the question is that this random variable which is the demand for aquarium is a discrete random variable right so this is a discrete random variable and can take values zero one two right it could be the demand could be huge right so and in theory it could be any any an integer right so the question is what is the probability density distribution so the probability that distribution is assumed to be exponential or excuse me plus on because it's discrete and it models this kind of time over I mean number of arrivals if you want during any given week okay it's gonna be very low probably that that this d is gonna be high it's gonna be a reasonably high probability that this d is gonna be small so so this is gonna be our assumption assumption is that the probability that dn takes value any value k is gonna be e to the minus lambda lambda to the k over k factorial now the question is this is Poisson what is the rate so recall the expected value of the Poisson distribution is actually lambda right so if in our case we're talking about one what was it one right observation is Thorne sells an average of one aquarium per week right so so the assumption is that this is equal to one in which case the probability that dn is any k should be considered to be e to the minus one over k factorial right so so let's just write this down so what is the probability that the demand during weekend is gonna be zero and it just it's e to the minus one right one over e whatever that is what is the probability that there will be one so same right e to the minus one probably there's gonna be demand of two this should start to drop right e to the minus one over two by the way these numbers are zero point three six eight I believe zero point three six eight well this half of it right so zero point one eight four right and so forth what's the probability that that the demand is gonna be three well right so it's gonna drop is this is this a fair assumption well depends on the market right I guess conditions or something that that is an assumption to work in a working assumption okay so this probabilities will basically affect this transition probability so this p11 now we know what the p11 is right we'd have to compute okay so now let's go back to the transition probability so p11 is going to be n plus one is one given that xn is one so this is gonna be probably the dn is zero so this is zero point three six eight let's compute the the next one which is I guess well these easy ones are the ones where xn plus one is two given that xn is two this is the same so the event basically it's can be can be characterized by there's no demand during that week right so that is going to be the same zero point three six eight but unfortunately p33 is not going to be that easy so the p33 is the probability that during week three there are three the beginning of week three the weekend plus one there are three given that xn equals three so here there are two possibilities there are two mutually exclusive or disjoint events right so is the probability that there is no so there were three and there's no no sales so that that is one possibility that there is no demand right but it's also the probability that there is everything was sold right all those three were sold during that week and then you had replenished right so there's a probability that no because but then you replenish to three so you can never start the week with if you sold everything during the previous week you always replenish with three okay so so this one okay so now the question is how do you compute this well it's obviously going to be a series okay so you can do it as a series or it's possible to think about the compliment event that is complimentary event that is it's going to be one minus the probability that neither of these happens right which means is the probability that dn is one and the probability that dn is two okay and now now this is you can compute this so it's going to be 0.368 minus and the other one was half right 1.84 and I think this ends up being 0.448 of course first three decimals okay all right so so again I'm gonna leave this because it wasn't clear in beginning how to compute this but now now we can start to make ourselves an image of this Markov chain so it basically says P11 P22 and P33 okay now of course the other ones need to be computed so for instance what's the probability that you start with one in the next week you have two zero right it's impossible to end up with two during any given week unless you started with two or the previous week yeah even here this one well remember the well you have a run a variable that takes this couldn't amount of so it has a probability distribution right so it has a probability that it's zero that it's one that it's and so forth right so basically every each of this being is a probability of an event right in these events you know the unit of those events are mutually exclusive and they add up to the certain event because something has to be right that probably the D has to be something yep at each at each week D has to be equal to something so all we do here is say if the sum of these things equals one well and we're only looking at the basically at the one which is zero so I'm going to use the red to indicate so this is zero one two zero is here right so it says the probability that of the event that that this happens right and this happens is one minus the sum of those two probabilities that's all so the sum of everything is is one right that's and these are mutually exclusive events right yeah well so again this this this is just to avoid writing computing a series right that series that that would be a series from three to infinity of those exponentials right okay all right so so there's nothing between one and two so you can draw and draw a zero or you just avoid drawing that let's see something that actually is not zero so from one to three so as a probability that you start with xn plus one is one is three when you started with xn equals one how can you write that event in terms of D greater than or equal to one again demand could be very high right you can only sell what you have but the demand could be very high with low probability the body could be very high okay so this is again the same thing this is one minus what what what even what probability of what event the DN is zero right so this is one minus zero point three six eight so this is whatever zero point six three two okay so that's a pretty high probability that from one you move to three and then it can't keep doing this so let me just leave this and write what tap what the metrics is so that's the nice thing about putting everything on metrics you can see everything at once without having to draw those error so this is zero point three six eight zero zero point six three two second row is we haven't computed p2 one but it ends up being when the demand is one and that's zero point six three eight three six eight we haven't really computed the probability that you start with two you end up with three but again that translates into an event of relate to the random variable D and the last row is this one okay so this is a three by three stochastic metrics okay and now the question is what do you do with this so what do you what is this metrics used for or this probability transition probabilities used for so I guess that I should talk a little bit about the conditional probabilities so so let me make a parenthesis here and so we don't necessarily see this you know ugly numbers here so let me just simplify so consider a simpler three-state Markov chain as follows so I mean same three states of zero one two and three okay and let's imagine that we have the random variable that has basically just is the state at time n and he has the following distribution so it is state one with a certain probability and I'm going to take you know just different numbers let's say it's it's equally likely that this state is one two or three so the probability that x1 is is one is one third that x1 is two is one third x1 is three is one third and consider so consider the the transition metrics to be the following so let me write this down one third one third one third seven tens three tens zero zero one zero okay I guess I should have said what x0 is so x0 I want x0 to be one so I want to start at one and I want to move in the next state so state of time one with equal probability at being one third back one third probability is that back at one one third probably is is that two one third probably is one third right so the question is what will x2 be so what is the state at second time going to be okay well so here we need to obviously is going to be one two or three with probability that x2 is one which we need to compute with x is going to be two with a probability that we need to compute and it's going to be three with a probability I want to compute okay so let's take it one at a time so what's the probability that that the second state or the state of the system after second iteration is actually one let's see today okay so I give the transition metrics here but it's not that clear you know because you can actually be in let's see state the second time you're in state one but you could be staying in state one right and just between one and two you go you stay in state one right or you could be going to state two and then coming back to state one what is that probably that probably seven tenths or you could be going to state three and then come back to state one with with with well that's actually zero probability right so I think this is accurate diagram no there's there's a probability that if you're in state two you come back to state two no state three to one is zero just the way I wrote here oh one zero zero okay so it's so then that changes what three two is zero right so three one is one right so first if you're in state three with with well probably one you go back to one right so you can you can actually x2 so x2 is a state of time to it could be one as follows so here's here all the possibilities these are probably that x2 is one given that x1 was one right so let's see this is times the probability that x1 was one plus so I'll say in a second this conditional probability is the probability that x2 is one that x1 is two times the probability that x2 x1 is two plus the probability that x2 is one given that x1 was three times the probability that x1 was three okay so here we knew we use the following notation so p of a and a condition b or a given b is a conditional probability of the event a given b and in discrete probability the there is a way to define this actually I think in general by definition this conditional probability is the probability that both events and b happen when the sample space is reduced is kind of is is reduced or is restricted to b right so so here's a picture in general if I have this is my sample space and I don't know I think we use it as for discrete right if this is a sample space and this is the event b okay and I have some event a let's say it kind of overlaps partial overlaps with this right then what are we what are we doing we're saying that the new sample space is just b because given that b happens what is the probability that a will happen right so at least when you do counting you know when it's equally likely outcomes you can see that the probability that a will happen knowing that b already happened or that b happens is the number of element of outcomes in the intersection divided by the favorable possible outcomes right so there's the ratio between p of a intersect b and b okay so now why do we actually do that products that I wrote there well so imagine that I have for instance that the event a is the event that x2 is 1 okay in the event b 1 is the event that x1 was 1 b2 is the event that x1 was 2 at the previous time 1 and b3 is that event x1 was 3 so I have these three events by the way they are mutually exclusive what does that mean it means they're the year their union is actually the whole space the whole sample space and they're there they don't intersect each other right yeah so we have three events so now at state at time 1 now at time 2 I'm looking at the event that x2 is 1 so what can I write I can write at the probability that if the event a actually just the event they a I can I can split event a into the following I can split the event a into three sub events I mean if I have three colors right so this is this is b1 this is b2 b2 here and b3 here right and my event a is somewhere in here right so it's going to be is the disjoint union of three of three sub events if you want event a right okay being disjointed means that the probability of the event a is the sum of the probabilities of the sub events and now all it's left to do is to say if you can you write this in terms of conditional probabilities well so if the conditional probabilities the ratio between the probability of the intersection and the probability of b1 for instance then this intersection is going to be probability of a given b1 times the probability of b1 right plus and so forth right probability that a given b2 times the probability of b2 plus probability that a given b3 times probability of b3 okay so that's exactly what it just this is just a set theoretical if you want computation except here I use this concept of conditional probability okay so that's actually what what we wrote here so there's a probability that the event a is split into three probabilities and we use conditional probability because these are just those transition probabilities right so let's let's just compute again that p of x2 is 1 so what's the probability that x2 is 1 given x1 is 1 that's p1 p1 1 right times the probability that x1 was 1 that was conveniently chosen to be one-third okay but then is the probability that p2 is 1 given that p1 is 2 so that's p2 1 probability that x1 is 2 and p3 1 probability that x1 is 3 so what was p1 1 1 1 3rd what is the probability that x1 was 1 that was 1 3rd right p2 1 was 7 10s and then 1 3rd plus p3 1 was 1 and this was 1 3rd okay so what is that 17 over is it 90 47 over 90 let's not even trigger 10 21 and 30 621 yep okay so that's how you then what's the probability that x2 is 2 it was going to be p1 1 probability that excuse me p1 2 probability that x1 is 1 plus p2 2 probability that x1 is 2 and probably and p2 3 no p3 2 probably that x1 is 3 okay so it seems like something that becomes tedious but fortunately there's going to be a pattern here which very soon we'll write down but so let me just do this one so 1 3rd and 1 3rd plus 3 10s and 1 3rd plus 0 1 3rd right okay so that's this is 19 over 90 right 1 9th and 1 10th right okay and finally p probability that x2 is 3 is so you see why it's easier to work with this number than with those coming from the inventory problem p p3 1 and so forth right and since we look at the metrics we can tell this is 1 times 1 3rd plus 0 times 1 3rd plus 0 times 1 3rd so this is 1 3rd or if we were to put it over 90 I want to know p3 was 1 right p3 1 was 1 is it like 30 over 90 so does it up to it should add up to 100 right 100% yeah why is it it should be 1 okay we can figure this out right it's not 6 to 1 here but it's so it's 1 9th I think should be 41 now now because this is the probability that x2 is 2 given x1 is 1 so it's moving from 1 to 2 so what does it add up to so what is this okay so looks like they say this is 1 9th why is this 1 9th yeah okay thank you that was the problem that's 1 3rd thank you okay so this is 10 over 90 so 1 9th right alright okay so so all this combination was to just figure out what is the probability distribution of this x2 random variable which is this is with so it's equal to 1 with some probability equals to 2 equals to 3 with some probability right with probability 61 over 90 with probability what was it 19 over 90 and this is with probability 10 over 90 right which should add up to 1 so then you go to x3 right okay but at this point you don't you don't want to do this tedious computation again but instead what you want to do is the following so you can you cannot you notice the following thing so you notice that the probability that xn plus 1 is some value j well j from 1 to 3 he is actually the summation over all i of pij times the probability that xn was i which it would be what p1j probability that xn is 1 plus p2j probability that xn is 2 plus p3j times the probability that xn is 3 okay this is in the case of three states but if you have n state you know five states it would be summation over all five states and so forth right so here's kind of the magic thing that happens is denoting pi n of i to be the probability that xn is i what you're getting is you're getting a row vector which is pi n of 1 I don't know let's say pi n of 2 pi n of 3 then you can write this as a matrix multiplication okay you can simply write that that as being the rope of of of pi n right multiply by the columns of p so then we can write the following that pi n plus 1 is simply pi n multiply by p okay so in specifically if I have three that I mean it's a 1 by 3 row so this is pi n plus n plus 1 state this is going to be the three the the row at pi at time n so pi n and then I have multiplied by this columns right yes I was looking at the wrong so you should be multiplying the values the current values the probabilities that the you know xn is in any of the states by the columns of this of this matrix so that's why when we look at the metrics above somewhere here it was always multiplying by this columns right so now if you if you have to do x3 then you would just take the probability distribution of this x2 put in a row and multiply by p and you're going to get the new row that's going to be the probability distribution of x3 and so forth so in general you're going to get a probability distribution of so this is going to be the probability distribution so pi n is going to be the probability distribution vector, if you want, of xn. Meaning that xn is going to be 1 with probability pi n of 1, 2 with probability pi n of 2, and so forth. OK. So finally, we can go back and talk about what happens with our original inventory problem. But so let me introduce the last thing, which is called the limiting probability, OK? So the limiting probability, so if we start, let's say, start with pi 0, then compute pi 1, which is pi 0 times p, pi 2, which is pi 1 times p, right? And this is pi 0 times p times p, or p squared. So in general, it's going to be pi n. It's going to be pi 0 times p to the n. So it's going to be a sequence of distribution vectors, right? So if pi n converges to some vector pi star, then pi star is called a limiting probability, or state. Actually, so it's a limiting probability, probability for the Markov chain, or for the Markov chain. And the most important thing that's going to be satisfied by pi star is that pi star, so remember pi n plus 1 is pi n times p. And if pi n goes to pi star, pi n plus 1 also goes to pi star. So pi star satisfies this relation that pi star multiplied by p to the left, I mean, pi star multiplied to the left of p is the same of pi star, right? And that means that pi star is a steady state distribution for the Markov chain. Turns out that actually you can compute this fairly easy because all this pi star is an eigenvector corresponding to the eigenvalue 1 for p, or p transpose, right? So pi star is a left eigenvector for p, which corresponding to eigenvalue 1. Or if you don't like the left eigenvector, then our pi star transpose is a right eigenvector for p transpose, OK? So in MATLAB, you can actually, when you put in this matrix and you look for the eigenvalues and eigenvectors, well, if p is a stochastic matrix, you're going to always get an eigenvalue of 1. And the eigenvector that corresponds to the eigenvalue is going to be the steady state distribution. Last word is, how does this reflect back to the inventory problem? So if you do that, we computed that matrix. So back to inventory problem. Pi star turns out to be the following. 0.285, 0.263, and 0.452, OK? So I'll talk about how to actually compute this in practice. But with MATLAB, you can find these numbers by just putting that matrix, p, capital P. And the conclusion of this model is was to figure out the probability that the demand exceeds the inventory, right? So it was the question of, what is the probability that, in weak n, for instance, the demand exceeds inventory? So here's what you do is, again, you split into the case when the conditional probability that the demand exceeds inventory when the inventory is 1 times the probability that the inventory is 1, and so forth, right? Probably that dn is greater than xn when xn is 2. We've done the second xn is 2 and n3, right? And another question is, what numbers one needs to put in here? Well, what's the probability that the demand exceeds n when xn is 1? Well, that's the probability that dn is greater than 1, right? And that we know how to compute. It's basically 1 minus 0.0368 minus 0.368. But the question is, what is this one? And that's where one uses the limiting probability for those values. The probability that xn is 1 is 0.285, right? This is 0.263, and this is 0.452, OK? So when you plug in these numbers, and you have to trust me on this or the book, you get something like 0.105. So this is 10%. So 10% chance that following that policy, you're going to actually have the demand exceed the inventory. So on Wednesday, I'm going to show you kind of, I guess on using MATLAB, how you can actually generate this limiting probabilities, either through the discrete dynamical system or through eigenvalues. Yep? Just go back up when you were talking about the pi star as a left eigenvector for b. What's the word right after b? Corresponding to eigenvalue 1. OK, so we'll talk more on this on Wednesday. Thank you.


Well, we will be starting now on behalf of the Tufts Latin American Committee. We want to thank you for tuning in to this panel. It's titled Exploration, Exploitation, Natural Resources, Indigenous Rights, Oil Mining, and the Amazon. My name is Iman Alwaleilat and I am the president of the LAC for the 2022 spring semester. LAC is a student organization housed under the Institute for Global Leadership here at Tufts. This founding mission is to direct and scrutinize current events that pertain to Latin America and Latin American society. The three years since LAC's foundation, we have put together panels and discussions that have explored topics ranging from women's rights to the importance of the last GeneX votes in U.S. elections. As we move to a hybrid platform this year, we are committed to creating spaces like these that engage both the Tufts community and the general public to keep the conversation about what GeneX matters a lot. Additionally, we want to thank our panelists for joining us and our audience as well. Before we move on, we will do a short topic briefing with reports of mass destruction of natural spaces and the elimination of complete ecosystems from across the world emerging constantly. All eyes turn to the largest rainforest known as the lungs of the world, the Amazon. The Amazon rainforest is home to millions of animals and plant species in over 400 indigenous communities we have inhabited in the region for centuries. Unfortunately, there is something else that co-exist in the bio-diverse environment, precious minerals and materials. During the last century, international corporations have established massive projects to extract the materials from the land, more specifically oil. In the case of Ecuador, we see the prime example of the petro-state and the ways the economic benefit of oil extraction is impacting the public opinion and activists fighting for the purity of the Amazon, thus showing why the petro-state economy and the investments of international corporations come under heavy scrutiny due to the well-being of the indigenous people who live there. Therefore, by looking at Professor Larry Angle's documentary based on Dr. Isis that quotes, who speaks for nature, indigenous movements, public opinion and the petro-state in Ecuador, we will then be analyzing how the country's oil economy is impacting the current state of indigenous rights, with the goal of assessing whether the actions taken by Ecuadorian officials have been fruitful and what the future holds for both the native peoples of the region and the commercialization of the Amazonian land. And today we have Dr. Todd Isisat, who is a professor in the Department of Government at American University, where he teaches courses on democratization, comparative climate and environmental politics, and the ethno-political dimensions of climate change. As a democratization and environmental rights activist in Latin America, focusing on the impact that has upon indigenous communities, he is the author of the book Who Speaks for Nature Indigenous Movements, Public Opinion and the Petro-State in Ecuador, which examines the impact commercial developments in the Ecuadorian Amazon are having on the state meters and the average citizens, but more specifically the indigenous communities who inhabit this area. Dr. Isisat holds a bachelor's degree from University, a master's degree from the Johns Hopkins University and a PhD from the University of California, San Diego, together with a variety of awards from institutions like the Council on Foreign Relations and the National Science Foundation. Lastly, today's section of Q&A in our panel will be moderated by lax vice president, Carolina Andrade, who is a sophomore at TUF studying international relations and economics. Carolina, the floor is yours. Thank you, Manuel. We will begin by showing the short film, Who Speaks for Nature, by Dr. Isisat and Professor Larry Engel. We will then move on to the moderated portion of our panel, where I will ask a series of questions drafted by our research team to structure our conversation around the political, social, and cultural reactions to oil exploitation. We will conclude it with an opportunity for our audience on Zoom and in person to ask questions to the panelists. To do so, please address any questions you have to a specific panelist and submit your questions through the Q&A function throughout the panel. Welcome Professor Isisat and Emmanuel is going to do the last comment. Well, this is before we do our documentary, I want to welcome once again, Dr. Isisat and ask one question to set the stage for the background of the region and your research more specifically. Therefore, the question we want to ask you for the documentary is Dr. Isisat, what led you to carry out this research in the Ecuadorian Amazon? Hey, well, thank you, Emmanuel. And thank you, Carolina. And I think your your colleagues at Tufts for for inviting me. And I guess to say what what led me to do this research was a longstanding knowledge that there were issues in the Amazon region affecting not just indigenous communities there, but actually all of us, right? As it turns out that the indigenous communities, as we found in our book, are better stewards of the rainforest and they are of many natural environments. They have a different worldview that encompasses concern, care and attention for the natural part of their environment, encompassing that into their everyday conduct and habits and sort of participation in earthly affairs. And so they they have a different view. And we found this out by doing a public opinion survey with Sadatos, probably Ecuador's most renowned public opinion research organization, and we found through that survey that that is true, that the indigenous communities do have a stronger view of the importance of nature to their lives and a more direct tie to nature. And they have a and they also have a strong view of climate change and the need to try to mitigate climate change. So I wanted to see where we could find this in the Amazon region. And and I had heard about Sadatos and about the possibilities in Ecuador had contacts with human rights groups at the Universidad Católica also in Quito, and it just seemed like a great place to pursue this research. And I should just say also that they're that in addition to Larry Engel, Carlene West, a professor at SUNY Geneseo, also co-authored the book and also co-produced the video that you're about to see. So thank you very much. Perfect. Thank you, Dr. Eisenstadt. Perfect. We will now be moving on to watch the documentary. I will be sharing my screen for this. Sorry, we are having a little issue with the sound. We will take two or three minutes to check it and we will go back to the documentary. Excuse us. Are there any questions while we wait for the video? One more minute. We are sorting out the audio. Thank you. While we are fixing the audio is to take up just a few more minutes. We wanted to start maybe asking a few questions to Dr. Eisenstadt while we fix it. Would that work? Perfect. One question that we would like to ask, which we will then see more in detail in the video, is post-materialism theory. Would you be able to expand a little bit on the definition of post-materialism theory and what were your findings of this theory in your research? Yeah. The idea of post-materialism theory that was sort of conceived by Engelhardt, a political scientist in the 1980s and 90s, and it was really geared towards studying environmentalism in Europe. The idea was if you look at Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, which some of you psych majors may know about, which is where there's an understanding that we provide for basic necessities first, right, like food and shelter. And then after that, we need to provide for sort of emotional well-being and stability and things like that. And that eventually we get to what are called postmodern values, which are where people and groups and countries that have solved the earlier parts of the hierarchy can look at how to better integrate different groups into society, how to address what they call post-material issues, which include environmental issues, importantly for us, as well as harmony among different groups, getting along with people with differences and similarities. So this was an idea that was applied in Europe. So we thought my co-author, Dr. West, and I thought that we could ask whether this applied in other settings as well, because the idea was that perhaps in some parts of the world, such as in the Amazon region, where there was a lot of poverty and difficulty meeting the most basic needs, we thought that counter to post-materialism, people might still also be concerned with the environment and with sort of addressing and, you know, accommodating differences and similarities among groups. So we looked at that and we found in the book that that was, in fact, true and that perhaps post-material values are not directly tied to meeting basic needs first, but may be related in part to people's individual political economies. That is how they make their living day to day. People who live off of the environment as much of the community of people who lives in the Amazon region do also feel very strong ties to the environment. And in fact, those ties were stronger to the environment than the sort of people in the urban areas in our survey, who, by most standards, had their basic needs all met. OK, so that that's the story of post-materialism and how we sought to test it in our in this discussion and in the book. Perfect, yeah, very interesting theory and its application that we see in this case. I think that we are able to work it now. So Carolina will be presenting the documentary now. Thank you very much, Dr. Einstein, for your explanation. No, thanks for the question.  This is an open pet of oil near the city of Lago Agrio. It was created in the 1970s and it was closed in 1984 by the Texaco Oil Company. I wouldn't want this in my backyard. I mean, I think there are arguments that this problems like this all over Ecuador in this northern part lead to ruining water supplies and ultimately to cancer clusters, which have been documented in this area. We're following up on a book manuscript where we interviewed people around Ecuador to interpret the findings of a survey conducted in 2014 with about 1700 people from all over Ecuador. On the survey, we asked people about the issues that they care about education, security, employment, income and the environment. And then at the end, we asked how much in relation to those issues do people care about the environment? And what we found is that in areas where the environment has already been damaged like it is here, they no longer care about the environment in relation to those other issues. Estas piscinas son construidas a raíz de lo que ingresa Texaco a Calamazonia ecuatoriana en el año de 1964, perfora el primer posto el 16 de febrero de 1967. Y como ese posto es un posto que les da positivo les produce más de dos mil barriles diarios de petróleo. Entonces para nosotros siempre decimos para beneficio de pocos y perjuicios de muchos. Y este petróleo de estas piscinas ellos tenían dos opciones para deshacerse cuando estas piscinas se llenaban, se saturaban y comenzaba a salir el petróleo por el cuello de ganso. Una de las opciones era quemar, incinerar, meterle fuego a quien estas piscinas. La otra era mandar un tanquero a que chupen todo este petróleo y lo riegue por las carreteras. Y aquí como llueve bastante todo ese petróleo es más liviano con la lluvia hacia los ríos. Now public health problems, the economy, migration, we feel that those are issues that they think about more rather than the environment. Y en la zona norte la actividad petrolera lo que importó fue población colona que de alguna manera estaba acostumbrado a un. The first two million months that could have been sponsored by many of us being resumed in one second. We have a small issue, but now that we were able to take a little bit, we also just maybe it will be good to move on to another question whilst we're able to again. The question goes as follows. Is younger generations of indigenous communities moved to cities and become less connected to their ancestral practices? How will this impact the conservation of rainforests in the Amazon region? OK, thanks. I think that it certainly will and has been influencing the politics of the Amazon region. I think that, you know, people who move to the cities become more connected to technology and other ways of life. It may be easy to, in part, glorify, you know, the light, the rural life and the and the life of being, you know, immersed in nature. On the other hand, some of it is a subsistence lifestyle, meaning that people don't have a lot of a lot of leftover, you know, resources in their personal day to day. So we don't want to, you know, on the one hand, we maybe don't want to glorify that part of it. I mean, it's hard living in in rural areas in the Amazon region in particular, where, you know, people need to there's difficulty growing crops sometimes and they have to turn over the soil periodically. On the other hand, all the elders and prior generations have the respect for nature that perhaps today's young people may be maybe abandoning or if not abandoning may not have in the same strength and to the same degree. I do I do want to say, though, that, you know, in the Amazon and around the world that we don't want to leave this up to individuals because I think there's a certain fallacy that we have that, you know, we do. We glorify people in certain in the indigenous communities and in the Amazon and climate activists in general. And really, it's coming to a point with climate change that, you know, individual effort really won't aggregate into a solution to the problem. What we need is strong governments and the international community. The United Nations needs to needs to come in and and and do something about this and national governments in places like Brazil and perhaps even more than in other places like Ecuador have been unwilling to to make strong movements towards preserving the Amazon. And in the first instance, it it is their land and their choice. But in the second instance, this affects all of us as well. And this should be, you know, it's sometimes called a patrimony of all human of all humanity. And and and perhaps we should try and think about it that way, too. I don't know how we could do that.  And I'm not sure that the international community at that time did not literally buy into this. They didn't raise the money that he wanted. And it was very controversial for him to do this. On the other hand, it may be time for the international community to think of a way to help incentivize people to save those areas that remain by, you know, by making a contribution to some some sort of stewardship or a trusteeship for land so that we can keep this land and make it a common concern because it seems that we have in the, you know, in the northern hemisphere have argued that the southern hemisphere needs to save the Amazon, that the Latin Americans need to save the Amazon but perhaps if everyone put forth the will and demonstrated and put some resources into this, we may be able to do a better job of showing the seriousness of the entire world about this. That's amazing. I, before we move on to the documentary, now that I don't know, was able to come back in, I wanted to ask another question we had which ties a lot to what you have just discussed. The question goes as follows with the majority of your study being conducted during the currency. How can it contribute to the establishment of new environmental and indigenous rights policies for the new guillermo lasso governments? OK, thanks. Yeah, I think that that, you know, that's a good question. And I was looking before before the talk, I was trying to get up to speed on some of the developments lately. I mean, frankly, it seems that some of the human rights issues regarding extraction of minerals on properties claimed by indigenous groups in the Amazon region in particular, but also in other parts of of Ecuador. Those struggles have not really changed, it seems. I mean, it seems that the the struggles and frankly, they're a good part of them seem to be against the the the Chinese government and they seem to be continuing. In other words, the the problems that existed during the, you know, Korea and and and Moreno seem to to to continue through to lasso. And I guess I guess that there have been some court victories very recently, that is, last month, the high courts in Ecuador ruled that people in in communities, indigenous communities in particular, which are covered by consulta previa laws, laws regarding the requirement that communities approve of approve of development in on their lands, which will involve extractive industries or any sort of changes to their land. They get to have a a vote on this, a decisive vote. And whereas the the courts in Ecuador had not have held this previously, this ruling, which was really a statement by the International Labor Organization, ILO 169, which was gosh, now, I think it was in the late 1980s that they came up with the idea of prior consultation for communities that was upheld in Ecuador last month. So that that is a big change. But that issue also continues. That is, what are the rights of indigenous communities to the sovereignty over over their lands, as opposed to private property, which is heavily regulated and enshrined in the legal system? They have a different status. They have, you know, they have lands which pertain to them in a more usufruct or common common property way. And that that status has been reinforced now. So I think there may be progress towards recognizing the rights of these communities to to sort of track the future of how their land is used. And that's a very new. And I think hopeful sign under this new government that probably has little to do with the government, which seems to be embroiled in some some turmoil in terms of its ability to execute legislation. But nonetheless, the courts made this ruling. And so the government will will get to address it and deal with it. And hopefully they will they will just they will legislate or execute what the judicial branch has has decided. Thank you very much for the insight. Now, I believe you can move on once again to the documentary. Yeah. Yeah. Thank you for your. Thank you for your. I've had this happen organizing webinars. So I I feel for you guys, it's hard. But let's yeah, let's stay tuned. Sorry. Sorry for the technical difficulties. I was with all this new context that you're giving, Professor Eisenstadt, how can you can you give like a brief introduction to like what we're going to see in the documentary? I'm sorry, we didn't ask before. Like, so yeah, can you introduce us once again? Sure. I mean, the the documentary, I think what it really addresses is forms of development that we found that were different in the northern part of the Amazon area, the southern part of the Amazon area and the sort of central, you know, the sort of eastern plains of Ecuador is what we're talking about the north, the center and the south. And they had different different development strategies by extractive companies, the government and indigenous communities. And in the south, there was a lot of conflict and it was over mostly over mining and it had to do again with with some, you know, Chinese mining concessions, which isn't to say that there haven't been tensions with U.S. and Canadian and, you know, Spanish oil and mineral concessions also, but that in the case that that we're referencing in the video, it is mostly against the Chinese peristatal company that is coming in, has been coming in and is unable to start operation still, I believe, in the area that we looked at. So that's the south, somewhat of a conflict, the north is is an area that has already been exploited, right? And where the big oil spill was that you saw and that apparently there's there were some continuing oil spills to happening. And so so we're trying, we tried to show that, in fact, people's interest in the environment actually diminishes after they feel that the environment has been has been mistreated after the oil spills. People in that area tended to value other issues more highly. In again, we're talking now about the north, which was the first area on the video and people valued security, employment, migration more than environment in the center part of the country of the Amazon region. We talked to people from an indigenous community that has done a lot of organizing that is mobilized and tried to defend its rights. The people of Sarayaku, who are, I think, known widely as having having reached something of a of a standoff with people from extractive companies who have wanted to go in and and extract resources from from that community. So they they've succeeded in stopping that from happening at least until now. And and so we establish the differences and how communities face extraction and sort of the the role of government in these three different areas. So I guess we started the north and I guess we're going to move on to the south and then to the center and talk about these differences. It seems like we will not be able to show the documentary using the technical issues or a variety of questions that we want.  Sure, sure. OK. Yeah. So thank you very much. Yeah, yeah. OK. So indeed. So in the north, where you did see a lot, there was some oil spills and there's cancer clusters and there's there's been some difficulty and there's been lawsuits by by aggrieved people. And I don't know the final status of those. Maybe Carolina can speak to that. I don't know. But at any rate, the south has had displacement of people. There's mining copper mine that has been set up. And I mean, there's there's actually multiple mines being established. And one of them is is fully operative. And the one that is featured in the video, which you can watch online sometime, has not been able to to start extraction. So and and I guess part of that has been there have been expulsions of people from from their their homes and there and they organized widely and they made it a big national issue. During the time when we were filming this in about 2017 and in the year or two before that. And apparently it still has not those issues have not been resolved.  And so there's something of a of a standoff going on in the south. And there, you know, there, people still have something of a view that, you know, they can they can have a stronger position in protecting the environment. The environment has not has not been damaged. Tourism is also big in the in the southern part of the Ecuadorian Amazon. And then there is the the center part of the Amazon. And I think I have a I think I have a slide I can show that sort of raises this. If I could, can I share the screen? Yes, definitely. That would be amazing. All right, let me see if I can show you. I mean, at the very least, you guys see what I you see the map that I have. OK, I mean, this was one of the petroleum rounds. I mean, this is the. Negotiations over over rights to to extract petroleum. And I'm going to just put my cursor. This is just the easiest map that I had available. I have I have another oops. There's another map, but I think for simplicity's sake, we'll just go with this right now. And so the north is sort of in this this area. OK, that we're talking about the the south is in this in this area. And then we're talking about sort of the. The center area is here and I I wish I had a bigger map. Let me see if I have a map of all of Ecuador. I don't. I mean, I'm sure I do OK. Well, that's not the best. That's not the best. But anyway, it is a map, though. It is a map, though. That's really good. Like for conflict is the like the Amazon big site of Ecuador. So it's like the right side and borders. Yeah. So if we looked at the other, if we look at the big Ecuador wide, I mean, the closer one that I'm showing you is really this area. This is the central Andean corridor. OK, and this is where most of the indigenous Kichwa people live. This is about, I think, 60 or 70 percent of the indigenous population. And there's and the indigenous population of Ecuador is quite large, right? It's something on the order of 20 percent of the population. So it's and that's people who who in a census identify that way, right? And so that it's probably underreported. And I see that we have colleagues from from Sedatos on the call here and they might be able to give us more precise information. But the area that we're talking about is the Amazonian area. So that we have the Andes, we have the foothills of the Andes, which are a mix of sort of tropical and and more moderate temperatures. And then we have the the flat eastern part of the country, which we've divided for our purposes in the book and in the video into sort of three areas, which is sort of the north, the center and the south. OK, so and I would just say that the we sort of finish the video with the central part, which is the community of Sarayaku in this area, which is really a community that to us kind of symbolized how it is that indigenous communities try to, you know, ideally are able to. Continue strong relationship with the land that they've had traditionally. This community, Sarayaku, has the added benefit of having received a court settlement. They have a trust fund they've established that gives scholarships for young people and they've set up, you know, they have invested in computer technology and in airlines and such things as connecting their community to the broader world, but also while minding their relationship to to nature. So a localized identity, but also a global one. At least that that was what we perceived when we were there several years ago. I haven't seen anything to to change that view. It seems like they they've solved the problem of dealing with the international community and having a representation internationally and representing the rainforest and stewardship of the rainforest and being good advocates of that while at the same time benefiting materially from sort of technology and sort of the 21st century benefits that, you know, that that has given an educational opportunities and sort of improvements in in their day to day lifestyle. So so it seems like they found a way to have, you know, both the traditional and the, you know, sort of Western modern, if if that's possible and people raise questions about whether that is possible. People who, you know, move to move to the city of Pashto or to other areas nearby Sarayaku are sometimes accused of, you know, betraying their people, right? The purists don't don't want them to to give up the very traditional lifestyle. So there there's a tradeoff people make. There's philosophical issues they have to reckon with. And sometimes it even probably gets to be something of an ideological issue as it does in the national political scene sometimes. So I think I think these tensions are probably if they're expressed consciously, they're probably beneficial because Indigenous communities have these tensions and they get to address them sort of consciously and publicly. And that gives us all sort of an entree into these questions and an entry point into how to think about these things. On the other hand, it's probably stressful for them and maybe even more for younger people who grapple with, you know, which identities to to assume the sort of Western identity with the economic benefits or the traditional identity, which probably they argue has a stronger moral character and a stronger, you know, it has other benefits. So I'm not in a position to say which is better. Yeah, so going back to like the Sarayaku, we've seen them as an example of an Indigenous community that community that has also refrain from the corruption that mining also entails, right? Like in the north, a lot of Indigenous communities have this supposed representatives that have also engaged in corruption, but pretend that they represent representing the entire Indigenous community, which I also thought was very interesting that was also mentioned in the community. And in terms of corruption and also the rise of illegal mining, even of people that are affiliated to Indigenous communities, we have this question that is, Ecuador was the first country to include the rights of nature in its new constitution in 2008. What is the relevance of this? And do you think it has had an actual impact on the fight towards environmental rights? Or is it just a political facade for exploitation? That's another good question. Before I answer that, I just want to go back to Carolina's point about in the north, I agree with you that there has been some duplicity, for example, among the I mean, I not to pick necessarily on the Waorani group or on any particular group, but I can say that we interviewed the president and the vice president of the Waorani people together in a group interview. And one of them wanted to allow oil extraction. And the other one did not. And they argued with each other. I mean, so so they seem very divided.  I do know that some people want to take the material benefits and the jobs and the, you know, the economic return that they can get. Whereas others really prefer a more traditional lifestyle. So I think I think you have a good point and that that was an issue, especially in the northern part of Ecuador, and that probably continues with regard to the rights of nature and the 2008 Constitution. It was a fascinating addition to that Constitution. And as you probably know, after Ecuador passed its Constitution, Bolivia had a similar addition to its Constitution. And there are there are a national and international and local laws and ordinances in places like Santa Monica, California and New Zealand, which also make references, at least to the rights of nature in in constitutionalism. And in fact, there's a there's a new U.N. Well, a few years old now, but a United Nations study group, a group of academics and analysts and practitioners who talk about this. And so so is it is it real? Or is it just an opportunity for exploitation? I mean, I think it could go either way. I don't think it's developed enough yet. I mean, I know there are some precedent cases even in Ecuador that have been used. I know it was used to defend some some sharks, endangered shark groups in the Galapagos, right? For example. So I think it I think it has been used creatively by environmentalists. I also know people have tried to use it. For other other means, right? I mean, I think even, you know, in order to extract resources, it has been argued that that was, you know, the rights of nature needed to be observed. I think it doesn't have full. It's not fully understood how this how this can be used. And I guess it it is currently up to the representative of the natural group that can't speak for themselves, such as species of animals or or or plants who determine whether it is used wisely in the benefit of, you know, environmental conservation or whether it's used for other purposes. I think I think that's a fascinating topic for study that I don't know the answer. Maybe you know the answer or you have an idea. What do you think? Yeah, I don't know. I I thought about it because well, as you know, the 2008 changing constitution in the Korean government where he actually, like, started drilling the Yasunin, which is where everyone is like one of the most wild, diverse places in the world. So it is to me, in my bias standpoint, it is a political side in the case of Korea. But now that it is a constitutional right, it can be used for and within and in the government, which is the opposition, I feel like it can be an opportunity for new environmental policies and a new fight for nature. And also, now that indigenous communities have had more representation in the political scene under a Yakuperuses candidacy for the presidency. And he was he then got third place. He was almost a runner up for president. So I feel like indigenous community, it's a very I feel it's a positive it was a positive outlook. But still, as you mentioned previously, prison last law has not expanded his legislative powers. And like, he's not very strong in that sense. Yeah, you mentioned a economic development and like how people want to like favor their economics rather than the environment. And that's a reality. I mean, a quarter is a country that is very kind of a clean stable. A lot of people are unemployed and it would actually rather have a stable lifestyle. And there has a lot of studies that have analyzed in economic development and a lot of actually, sorry, going back to my point, many governments justify oil exploitation as a reason for economic development, which will lead to further stability and like for democratic rule. But at the end of the day, there has been other studies that economic development does not necessarily equal democratic practices. So what is your intake on this? So the question would be, do you believe that oil production in here that we contains anti democratic politics in terms of rights of nature and of indigenous communities?  But if you teach I'm paraphrasing, but if you teach them how to fish, then you've give them you give them a livelihood. And I think that's applicable here because I think a lot of the indigenous communities complain that they're given little jobs like when there's a when there's exploration for whether there's going to be oil extraction in a region, a bunch of people are hired to help with the seismic testing but or or they're hired to, you know, to work as laborers in the in the rigs, but they're not hired to design or to manage or to to do the high level jobs. Right. So I think part of the answer to the question about whether, you know, these communities benefit is what, you know, what level of of jobs and training are they receiving and how much of the benefit from the extraction, the royalties get to stay in the region rather than going to the central government where most of them go. If not, I think the vast majority of them go where they're used sometimes for good good uses and sometimes for sort of political, much more discretionary uses. So I think but I don't think that's unique to Ecuador. I think that the struggle between economic development and environmental protection is one of the biggest themes of, you know, 21st century conflict all around the world. And I think it's increasingly going to be so as climate change becomes more more accepted as a phenomenon by more of the world.  Even even if we fix it, which we could, it's, you know, we're not going to fix the entire problem. We're going to really diminish the problem, but we're not going to eliminate it.  And I think it plays out quite directly in the in the rainforest in Ecuador, as you've pointed out. I think, you know, there were efforts under Correa, for example, and we point this out in the video with the as you guys, the millennial and the sort of the construction of of safe housing, of good housing with electricity and sort of Wi-Fi in in some of the communities where extraction occurred as a as a sort of trade off as a way to improve people's standard of living, you know, and to compensate for some of the pollution and the and the waste that occurs on those sites. So, you know, those those solutions had their problems. And at the end of the day, I don't think it worked out entirely well. And I think that, you know, some of the political political uses of the resources to to bolster political supporters rather than to help the most needy has been a problem. And I think I think that's sort of a way to measure a government's will is to see if the benefit is going to those who need it the most or to those who are, you know, supportive of the current government or sometimes is the case in borderline areas where there's a strong electoral competition and a political party needs a few more supporters to get the majority. You know, sometimes heavy investments are made in those areas of social programs. So I think it's, you know, these are these are important problems around the world, and we could see them all playing out very, very clearly in this region of Ecuador. It's very interesting, interesting thing, but yeah, so at the end of the day, these are all like short terms like solutions to what is going on with the drilling.  And like, I also remember in the documentary, you mentioned a lot of increased cancer cases in indigenous communities in these areas. So at the end, it does the benefits that the government give indigenous communities where they are exploiting the area. So they like to play the conscience in the long term. Yeah, I mean, I think I think that trade off between short term benefits and long term benefits is huge. And I think that that's part of the problem also that much of the world is grappling with because, you know, solving environmental degradation and more specifically, you know, climate change is a long term issue. And politicians don't tend to have long term time horizons, right? They care about when is their next election, you know? And so they they tend to offer short term solutions and sometimes even sort of populism or clientelism. That is they give projects, but they don't give long term opportunities or hope or advancement. And so that's that's the challenge. I think that, you know, there was a government program, which was very interesting called social Bosque, which I guess has started up again, but which has had some weakness in that. The idea was that there was there was a fund from Europe. There were European donors gave millions of dollars to the Ecuadorian government to try and preserve forest areas and to pay people to not develop the land. And people did receive the payment to not develop the land that is to not cut down the forest, right? The forests absorb carbon dioxide and the mid oxygen and the rainforest is the most dense and effective, sort of they call them the the lungs of the earth, right? Because because of the ability of the rainforest to be to offer a natural solution to climate change, which is caused by emission of carbon dioxide. So photosynthesis absorbs carbon dioxide and emits oxygen in return. So that's that's great. I mean, the problem is that the money that was given for this supposed long term solution was to create a market for trading opportunities to save forests. In exchange, you know, if I'm a polluting company in Europe, I have regulatory structures that only allow me to pollute, you know, so much. If I pollute, you know, 10, 10 million tons more of carbon dioxide than what I'm allowed, I have to offset that. I can do that by buying the conservation of rainforest, say in Ecuador, I mean, in part, the preparation for an emissions trading system market was what the government hoped for, the environment ministry hoped for. In in setting up socio Bosque, the problem is that that market never came and that people were not paid enough to keep the trees because if you cut the trees, you can grow crops that you can sell for money and also subsist and feed your family. Whereas keeping the trees doesn't really produce products that help you fill the needs of your family. One and two to the the contractual amount of time that forests are to be preserved is not that clear. And I may make a deal with, you know, with one tribal leader and then there's another tribal leader who comes in and doesn't agree with that with that agreement with the government. And so the the contracting is a problem. And the third problem is that if I save this forest area that, you know, my tribal group has will cut down another another area for subsistence farming, which is not part of the deal with the government. In other words, there's what they call leakage, which is where I don't know if you've been to if you've been to to a carnival where you play the game and whack a mole where the where the mole pops up. You hit it with a with a hammer and then it just pops up somewhere else. Then you hit it with a hammer and it pops up in a third place. The idea of leakage is that if, you know, if the land is not if it's guaranteed for conservation as forest in one area, then the development and the farming will have to occur somewhere. So they'll just occur in another area. And so I guess what I'm getting at is that these are efforts for longer term solutions at the international level and at the national level. But they need to have the problems with them worked out better. So so I guess to answer your question more directly, the benefits of short term political programs or social programs and giving people stuff, even if it's not the best stuff and even if it doesn't help solve the environmental problem, that has known benefits. The benefits of long term programs such as social Bosque remain unproven. And so if you're a politician, you're probably going to choose the short term solution rather than the long term one, unfortunately. Yeah, that's very true. It's also it's the opportunistic side of the environment. Everyone sees an opportunity and it's always once again the intersection between economics and preservation. They are always fighting against each other and like economic and sustenance and in the theme of climate change and of activism and of protecting the environment. In your book, you argue that the stakeholders sense of vulnerability to environmental degradation matters more than their political or ideological predispositions or ethnic identities, thus providing greater opportunities for activists to unite across political and ethnic lines. So given your findings, is there any recommendation you would give environmental protection activists in order to increase their engagement and achieve their objectives? Like now knowing all this, like the connections with people, like beyond boundaries of like ethnicity and everything, they protect the environment. How can like activists use this and like create a have a better impact in the world? Yeah, that's a great question. That's a great question. I think that I think our conclusion from the book was that there's much more hope in areas that have yet to be harmed environmentally. Once once environmental harms happen, people are disoriented and they they lose their sense of urgency and they start just worrying about other things. Whereas where there has not yet been that level of where there hasn't been degradation, where the environment is still in good shape. That's where perhaps, you know, pure environmental activism can be can be fomented in areas where there's been environmental degradation. Perhaps the way to frame the issue is in other ways, such as public health, such as migration. In other words, activism is not it can be the same mobilization, but it has to be around issues relating to what people have already been through, which is which in the South and in the center in Ecuador, it seems there's still much more opportunity to mobilize, you know, to preserve the environment. The environment is still the central issue in the North. People's views seem to be fragmented by what they've been through socially, economically, environmentally and in the other parts that that doesn't seem to be the case. So I think, you know, maybe the broader lesson is that also, you know, as you say that it's time to mobilize across ethnic lines, across class lines, across national lines and that, you know, the evidence from Ecuador is that people can do that. And and, you know, they they have done that some. I think the biggest the biggest divide now, frankly, I think is over temporality.  And I guess I'm not sure my generation and maybe that would include your parent generation. I'm not sure that we've we've done justice for for younger people. And frankly, I think that's the big divide. But I think, you know, I think we all need to get over it. And frankly, we don't have we don't have that much time to try and solve this. So let's put all of these lesser issues behind us and focus on, you know, what we can do now. And I think at least among some of the Indigenous groups in in Ecuador, we saw some some uniting between the Andean groups, whose whose interests were typically very different. They had always organized inside governments. They had always had quotas of power. They've always played important roles as interest groups in the Amazon. The Indigenous communities were mostly disenfranchised. They never joined these larger political movements of the Andean Indigenous communities, which is, you know, the population center. But it turns out that both groups have problems over issues like water and that, in fact, you know, the Amazon communities with the Sarayaku emergence as leaders in the 1990s joined into the the broad coalition and the party building and the mobilization building so that the the Andean communities and the Amazon communities, which had very different linguistic backgrounds, histories, traditions were able to actually come together. So I think that that's a good lesson if we want to offer an optimistic way forward. So I think there's there's positive to be to be taken from that. And and maybe maybe for most of us or all of us. You really agree the Indigenous communities have been much more united in the past. And we see it even like five to ten years. I feel like they've also united a lot of politically, which I think is pretty interesting, as you said, regarding very huge differences in language barriers and also historic and like things that separate them. Like, but they have more than unites them, that does separate them, which is very interesting. And now to end with a more positive note and regarding what we can do is there a way we can effectively speak for nature? I think so. I mean, I think for better or worse, speaking for nature has become wound up in speaking for, you know, for humans, too. I mean, we can't separate our, you know, unfortunately, the days when nature was this kind of untameable force that was separate from humans, that is kind of over, right? So how do we speak for nature? I think, you know, I think what we have to do is is we have to reduce emissions and we have to really we and we can't and frankly, you know, focusing on recycling and, you know, not littering. I mean, those are no doubt good things to do. But frankly, in the 1970s in the US, there was an ad campaign which started the movement of trying to distract attention from corporate, you know, promotion of some pollution, polluting measures and instead focusing on what individuals can do. And I think individuals are part of the problem and we need to raise awareness and we need to contribute in our households and as examples to, you know, to children and to those coming after us. But I don't I don't think we can solve the problem at an individual level. I think that only governments and, you know, and companies, too, but companies, companies are neither good nor bad. They, you know, they just look for profits and, you know, there's nothing wrong with that, but nor is it virtuous and nor nor do I think that there's really corporate social responsibility. I think corporations are neutral. So what that means is that governments need to regulate them. And so, you know, we have as citizens of our respective countries and of the world, we need to push with Greta and with, you know, other others, other climate activists to to make sure that that we're able to make changes and make them at a at a rate that is adequate to the to the problem. I mean, we're not we're not addressing the scale of this the way we need to. So I still think we can and I think that ultimately we may if we have good leadership and if we have more, you know, if young people are key to this. So if more young people vote and raise enough stink about this, I think that we will have to start solving the problem. But I don't I don't think we've done enough, certainly. And the U.S. things have gotten better, right? We got I mean, Trump removed the U.S. from the international climate agreements. Biden brought us back. But still, we haven't been able to pass legislation that we needed to sort of step up the scope of how we address this problem. I think other parts of the world are also facing these kinds of issues. And I think, frankly, the world is becoming more divided between the mitigating countries, that is, the industrial countries that have created much of the emissions, pollution and the adapting countries. I think I would put Ecuador in that in that position. That is the countries that unfortunately received the harms and didn't didn't contribute as much to their creation, but also, you know, have to deal with it. So I think I think pressure from from countries like Ecuador and, you know, the rest of the adapting countries to force, you know, force the mitigating countries and the biggest mitigating countries are China, the U.S. and India to force those countries and to have those three countries among themselves come to some sort of agreement parallel to the United Nations or apart from the United Nations, but to make bilateral negotiating possible among these countries and to create an agreement as as as President Obama did with with with China and started to try to do with India. But then but then Trump came in. I think if that can be done, if we can execute that and if we can get support from other parts of the world and we can get a push from Ecuador with regard to the biodiversity that the country has and the rainforest, the indigenous communities and their example and everyone else who can come together, I think that message could be strong because Ecuador has dealt with a lot of a lot of these environmental problems in a in a mixed way, but with some success and that there are lessons to be taken from that more broadly. I think I think it's not going to be easy and we're all going to have to sacrifice, unfortunately. And it's hard coming out of covid when, in fact, emissions did go down worldwide, eight percent because of the economic slowdown. It's going to be hard to continue improving on the reduction of emissions in in economic good times. But we have to we have to try. I don't know if that answers your question. That's perfect. I feel like it also engages our our effort as individuals and like trying to do or in the like in the most minimal things try to help the environment as much as we can. But at the end of the day, it's out of our hands. At the end of the day, in a matter of of politicians and companies as you mentioned, and this would close our moderating moderator questions. And we have one question from our in person audience, if that is OK with you. So the question that we got from our in person audience is it's regarding what you said about clientelism like patronage and that surrounds oil extraction. And it says, in your opinion, is oil production and the rise of populist leaders like Rafael Correán or Chavez correlated considering the people's attitudes towards patronage and clientelism sustained through revenue of the petroleum industry? I guess I think it often does. I mean, I think that really I think the problem is if there's monopoly oil companies, peristatal oil companies, such as in particular in Venezuela and some of the other countries that have oil companies tied directly to the government, say Mexico. There's I think I think there's a stronger. Sometimes there's more corruption. Sometimes there's more clientelism, patronage. I think where there's political competition, there probably tends to be less of that. But still, you know, the royalties that country governments get make their make their financial planning easier. In other words, if I am a president of any oil bearing country and I can get discretionary funds for programs that I like from oil royalties rather than from raising taxes, I don't have to pay any political price. I get free money. At least that's I think how Correa viewed it. And I think I mean, he did some good things, right? He improved the infrastructure and the highway system around the country. He did some good things, but he also made sure that he kept the flow of cash coming in. And part of the way he did that was by making longer term deals and contracts, and in particular with with the Chinese government to send oil to China at a rate which now as oil prices are escalating so so quickly, turns out to have been a real, you know, bargain and and is really reducing the public revenue available in Ecuador, right, for public spending. So so sometimes populist leaders abuse the flow of of money. It's a it's politically cheap to them, right? It's easy for them to use royalties for political expediency. And so that's that's the problem. If they don't have to be accountable, then then why would they be? If you're if you're raising taxes, people are watching what you're doing and they care deeply about it and they're going to hold you accountable. If it's extra money that they didn't have to that, you know, that they're not paying out of their pocket, if it's coming from oil revenues, I believe it's like 15 percent of extraction is oil royalty, right? So if that's the story, then it's it's it's free money. And that's how these leaders treat it. And so, yes, I think they abuse it. I think that, you know, there needs to be better accountability systems. I I don't know how to establish those in countries that maybe don't have them. I mean, no national government is going to submit to any international authority on this, and there is no good international authority on this. So I don't I don't see how to improve that system unless people demand it. And and so maybe that's part of it is, you know, is having. But the problem is people don't want to go against their short term interest. No one ever does, right? And so we don't get these long term interest benefits because everyone likes a social program, you know, even if it's not that good, it's bringing something and even clientelism and elections.  I mean, who would? And that's that's an eternal problem. I think we're going to have to figure out how to have as we have central banks that are independent, presumably in some countries that have independence from from the day to day operations of government. It would seem that we need climate authorities who are able to set policy apart from which party is in office. I think that would be a partial solution. But the other partial solution, I think, as you said, I mean, you know, at the end of the day, it's not up to us as individuals, but it is in part up to us to pressure and to and to to have top down change, but to make sure that people at the top understand how serious we are about this. So I think that's part of it. And I also connected what you say about the short term index. Also, what happened in a quarantine that with a protest because of removal of the substance, the petroleum subsidy for the gas subsidy, and then there was mass protest because of this because also people are used to having this short term and like think that helps them throughout their daily life. So I think that's very interesting. People are accustomed to this short term benefit so they get from the oil revenues in these oil producing countries. So I think that's our last question in the Q&A section. I am. Thank you so much once again, Professor Eisenstadt. It's an honor to have you here. I hope to see you again soon and I'll give the floor to Immanuel to do the conclusion. Thank you so much. OK, thanks for your excellent questions and moderating. Perfect. Thank you so much. And again, Dr. Eisenstadt. Well, once again, we thank Dr. Eisenstadt for coming to our panel and engaging in such an education in fruitful discussion. Thank you for your interesting insights. We are certain that this event has great awareness of the effects of oil exploitation in the Amazonian communities and the environment of the glitter. And we understand that there are many other topics we could not get to. Therefore, if you would like to continue the conversation with one of our panelists, please refer to our Facebook page or Instagram page, LAC.tuff, for their social media contact information or to learn about our organization and other upcoming events. We also highly encourage you all to watch the documentary, Who Speaks for Nature? And if you're invited on YouTube, you can find it on Google any search instrument you desire to use. We highly recommend it. As we have discussed it, it explains all the information we discussed in this panel. And we really hope that you all have the opportunity to see it and really excuse us for the technical issues that we had. But thank you so much. And we highly recommend anyone interested in anything regarding politics, economics, environmental rights and indigenous groups to look at the. Yes, thanks for your interest. We'll also make sure to share in our social media so that everyone can have the opportunity to see it and learn a bit more as well. Perfect. Thank you so much, Dr. Eisenstein. Thanks for everything. And it's been a pleasure to talk to you all. And it's if all of if all of us took the interest that that you guys have taken, we would be in a much better position. So thank you. Well, thank you so much for joining us inside. We hope to have you sometimes soon. All right, be well. Thanks again. Have a good evening.


Hi, everyone, Joe for Jaspy's casebreaks.com. Happy Sunday, happy AFC Conference Championship Day. We got 2022 Tops Chrome Baseball Jumbo Pack number 56. At the end of this, we're going to give away the final 10 spots of that hip parade dual case break. The baseball edition will, that'll be in a separate video.  And there are the teams right there. Let's roll it, randomize it. Six and a one, seven times. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, and a different dice roll for the giveaway part towards the end of the video. Six and a one, seven times for the teams. One, two, seven, then final time. Sorry, Nick. The description is always correct. What I say is usually incorrect. Whatever's in the title in the description is correct. All right, here's the first half of the list right here. No trade windows in this quick little Tops Chrome jumbo pack break. There's the second half right there. Let's just print and rip. Now the eagle is going on to the Super Bowl and then we have the Cincinnati Kansas City game we'll see on the AFC spot here. Let's see what they do. A lot of game to be played. Here's the final printout, hot off the presses. Thanks everyone for making this happen. Oh, we got an autograph for the Royals. Not bad for a filler pack. That's John Haisley going to Nico and the Royals. Rookie Otto and then to Tis Junior Refractor. All right. Now let's go back to this list here. Now let's see who's going to win those hip parades spots. Let's gather everybody's names one through 30. New dice, new list and just the top 10 after two and a five, seven times. Good luck. One, two, three, four, five, six, and seventh and final time. After seven, so from 11 on down, Craig, sorry. Very close, but no cigar. But I appreciate everybody 11 through 30 for giving this a shot. Appreciate it. Top 10, you're happy because you're in the next break. Steve is happy. So is Nick, Nico, Aaron, Kevin, Tristan, Nester, Tristan, John, and Nester. There you go, top 10. We'll see you in the next video, jaskyscasebreaks.com.


Freedom Wallet. To let you spend the money that you earn right away without waiting two months to get it. You could spend the money you earn today to buy Steam games, a new microphone, an X-split license, anything you feel if you have the funds according to YouTube analytics. Is this a good idea? We are just thinking about building the Freedom Wallet. We haven't started it and we want your input to make sure that before we commit to it we build the right thing. So here's how it would work. Currently you can see your estimated earnings in YouTube analytics and you can see that every day. There's about a three two or three day delay. Those earnings are finalized two weeks after the end of each month. That's when you see them in the Freedom Dashboard. So for example, your April earnings appeared in the Freedom Dashboard in mid-May and your May earnings will appear in mid-June in the Freedom Dashboard.  Even though they're estimated they're pretty accurate. So I'd say maybe a two percent margin for error. Now Freedom Wallet would let you based on those estimated daily earnings in YouTube analytics would let you spend that money right now right away in the ways that we would let you spend it. We're basically loaning you two months early money that you're expecting to receive in two months. We're basically giving you a credit so you could buy the things you need right now. Like for example a new microphone if your current one broke and you still can't afford it and you need to wait two months but if you're not making videos for two months your channel goes down. It makes sense. You need to buy the microphone now, now, now. Or Steam games or something else that's really critical to you. So guys we need your input so we make sure we build this the right way. Tell me in the comments below exactly how you imagine the Freedom Wallet can work. Exactly what concerns you have and whether we should even build it or are you happy waiting to get the money without creating this kind of credit. Because in a sense this becomes like a credit card because you haven't received the money yet and you're going to pay it in the future. And we all know that credit cards help people get into debt which is not a good thing. They're easily abused because if you want something and you can buy it you tend to buy it without thinking that you still need to get the money to buy it in a month or two when your credit card bill is due and then you have high interest payments and it's not a good thing. So maybe this is not a good thing either because it will encourage people to spend money they don't have. Anyway tell me in the comments below what you think about all this and I hope you enjoy what we are building for you. We have LFG launching very soon looking for group. It's like an MMO term but we're applying it to help people matchmake each other into pairs. That should be out next week in beta for you to use. And as well we have a lot of other cool ideas that I will announce shortly. In the meantime enjoy the dashboard. Enjoy freedom and be free. My name is George founder of freedom and you've been watching. Click the first video for a fireside chat with George where he shares our future and how he grew from $20,000 to $120,000 in just one month. And click the second video to see how to monetize all of your videos with just a few clicks to enable all ad formats and monetize in all countries. And we will grow together as a family because this is the freedom family. You are part of it. We are all part of it and we're all growing together. So grow with us and partner with freedom. That play now button right there on the video bar is all you need to click to get started.