50 FNN trading hour with your host David White call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> now David White and welcome everybody to another excellent edition of the power trading hour with me your humble lovable and squeezibly soft host the following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. I have anything there slow on the uptake today a little slow what do we have going on we're up one and a half and that's 1.5 points on the SP cash 24 on the down as except 27 there's just no no volume markets hanging out here I think I have a reason for it we didn't find out till after I got off off the show last night sitting in for Tom O'Brien but they certainly made it rather quiet doing about 3.6 billion shares as we start the show on the CBOE consolidated volume tape and maybe 3.7 in that area it was very tough to get any kind of decent volume yesterday it looks like it's not going to be any better today one of the things that is different is we're not seeing any kind of volume at the close like we have that started to tape or over the last week it's telling you that something is changing you don't know quite what it is yet I have a theory though we're going to explain that theory and it starts with something like this that we went through a little while ago what was a week and a half ago two weeks and that is the IPOs come they suck all the oxygen out of the room well we've got a couple more that are priced Pinterest and zoom video together these almost make up as much money that's going to get sucked in to new companies as lift they're holding the market up but at the same time there's a difference when new money comes in to replace it or they just sell what they've got to actually get to get more money to buy new things so sometimes they just have a lot of cash I don't think they've got it now the market just seems very tired they will step in anytime the market looks like a little pullback's coming but again volume incessantly quiet and also you just seeing some of these stocks that have tended to be fairly shorted slowly I mean painfully slowly moving higher today and you know so you get a little bounce out of some of these and maybe you make a little money if you're day trading them but man that I did everything to me just spells of danger so close to a previous high you'd think you were going to get there the problem is at this rate we probably will will not make it maybe maybe we'll maybe we'll get some good news now of course this is in the backdrop of earnings which are now coming out we had what I'm going to call it four major earnings announcements over the last well since the close last night laughter the bell last night we had JB hunt we'll look at that it's off about four and a half percent city group up two and a half percent J&J up two percent after being not much of a range in her day I think it was little lower pre-market and black rock which is was flat going into it I think there's some shorts in that getting moved up but you normally need to even just a break even on options about a five percent six percent move on the stock and what we've got is a lot of two and three and four percent maybe but nothing that would say that it's worth anywhere close to the risk reward for or even making money now JB hunt probably the worst offender today and of course as always the worst offender gets the losing horn seeing notes instead of usual slide no issue for now but future oh I see what he was talking about here yeah there we go that that's neat okay so what else do we have it is uh just that just the light volume uh we're not able to push higher in fact we may even go south on the day in the s&p cash and if you can't really push into a weekend like this that tells you something too but I think but I think if we're talking about working theories it is that we've got about two billion dollars that has to be sucked out this week to buy new IPOs I'm not really sold on jumping in on Pinterest uh and or zoom zoom I I know less about I'll I'll find out more about it this week but pricing tonight probably on Pinterest maybe they roll out tomorrow morning and or maybe on Thursday morning I haven't seen a lot of reporting about it they're trying to keep it kind of quiet mostly because of the downside on that I think they were originally trying to come out and raise about five billion dollars and about a billion and a half for it and I think about half a billion for zoom but uh two billion maybe 2.1 billion there's a whole bunch of also rands that maybe we're on that after two and a half billion a bunch of smaller companies so is some money coming out most of these are sliver deals that means that they couldn't find a home for all those shares now so what they'll do is they'll push a lot of a very thin market higher and eventually they'll continue to dole those shares out and dilute investors so generally not a good deal any time on those but that's kind of it now we're going to go into probably even lighter volume after tomorrow's close because that's really when most of the action is going to happen for expiration which is really on Thursday but now what can you say the people of Wall Street they see three days they want four they see four days they want five maybe that's why they're in the business that they're in so they're going to probably try to do a great deal of what they can tomorrow so if we're going to get any action in this market I think it's going to be tomorrow maybe the uh market's kind of rolling south here a little bit uh are that they've got the the pricing done they'll announce it after the bell tonight we'll look for that and of course after the bell tonight we also have more earnings with netflix and ibm and uh csx uh united continental interactive brokers uh and then of course we go tomorrow morning for morgan stanley pepsi co abbot laboratories bank of new york melan erickson got a good read on what five g's doing kansas city southern text draw anything else no that's about it we'll be back in a minute the taz profile scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence as you begin your trading day it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions in order to make the best decision the first thing you'll need is a strategy that will help you minimize your risks whether we're in a bull or bear market a good strategy is to have the tools needed to help you scan and analyze the markets before you trade the taz profile scanner instantly scans and filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks etfs commodity futures and forex headed by steve doll president of taz market profile the taz profile scanner understands that in today's technological world the use of top flight software applications automated trading algorithms and technical analysis expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market whether you're 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internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> on this day in 1977 david soul smash hit don't give up on his baby reaches the top of the u.s pop charts but the story of the tough but sensitive tv detective who's trying to cross over began 10 years earlier when he started out as a singer but he was just too good looking and no one would pay attention to what he's saying so he became a actor so that he could become a singer of course on starsky and hutch and of course he won I think a Grammy and that was the start I think that 1978 of the puffy shirt fast forward about 25 years one of the greatest episodes of Seinfeld of all time the puffy shirt episode but it actually goes to the puffy shirt from david soul and I think the episode was actually even called something soul as a nod to david soul uh one of david's top no no no no no I didn't wouldn't wouldn't one one of my song in fact I think that's when I just started really getting into pink floyd didn't listen to it when I was 13 I think I was about 17 or 18 and really started like pink floyd when I was about 21 certainly had it was something that grew on me in time but no I didn't listen to anything like the dribble and the of david soul's song and uh what can you say about it seemed like everybody had to sing whether it was spock or captain kirk everybody had an album everybody thought that they could sing but uh I think few people can now of course everybody can because of autotune and uh you just never know what you're going to bring up by doing all that stuff uh we're going to go to charts fairly quickly today because I looked at a big uh uh where is that at had a big uh update this morning where I went through a lot of these uh and showed them off but I don't think that we've got any kind of signal just yet but certainly um we have to worry about the way that this market's starting to actually um act into this incredibly light volume now maybe it doesn't go down maybe all we do is go sideways for a while until people wait but I don't think we've got any kind of uh really uh what is going on here we don't have any real what can I say we don't have any real juice in the market anyway um we've got some emails we'll go to those first and then we'll get into a lot of other stuff so u up I think is the first question we've got out for the day and this is the us uh dollar bullish index fund uh I don't think the dollars going anyway I think we're horribly range bound and I don't see any reason until it breaks out one way or the other uh to actually get involved in this um I think this thing can just bounce around especially with the treasury the president and the fed all looking to game the dollar and keep it around in this area we'll look and see what we've got on the dollar index itself I just everything it seems to me I'm seeing a huge amount of effort uh from the government to keep it below 97 and above about 95 50 that's kind of where they're doing it until that busts out and proves that the government no longer can keep it there that'd be it but I'm neither fish nor foul today uh by uh making sure that I just stay away from this because I don't think that there's much there there and of course you want to look at that in the context of the TLT it kind of the exact same thing everybody was sure uh mr TLT oh uh oh that's why I know I was not doing that um mr TLT oh do the TLT again here mr TLT uh is you know had a false breakout to the upside now kind of down a little bit I just don't continue to see a lot of reasons to get involved in that kind of like getting involved in a land war uh in Asia just uh some things that you do not want to do uh and uh I've got to get something else up and running here this is right I think it is let me get this going here hang on a second uh okay so that's the first thing oh now let's go ahead and get back to the other email this I'm just saying stay away I don't see much the other email that we already have and you can of course always email me at path at tfnn.com uh is humana uh health start the health health care stocks are taking a beating I know there's a political chatter around the health care but there always is it may be approaching a swing low from q1 2017 or things I may first what are your thoughts on these health care stocks um man if I believe anything from the soviets running for president and yes I did not mince words there uh if you're actually sound like a edition of probda circa 1965 then maybe you're a soviet we'll make a little fun of those guys but from uh calling from uh socialized or in my case soviet health care um I always find it amazing of horribly ill-formed people who tell me how great health care uh is down in cuba and the one thing they forget to tell you is that you have to pay for all the medicine yourself they will do anything to you but you better drag everything there that you need and um but it's free it's free but guess what they got zero things to help you with they'll they'll stand there and look at you all day long but man if it actually takes anything like an aspirin you better drag it along with you because they don't do anything for you I've been to uh socialized health care facilities in both in england and in canada I can tell you that everybody that has a dime goes and finds somebody that's actually decent and I know no one likes to hear it uh but uh there's one thing that's for sure and that is capitalism is the only thing that's dragged people out of the muck and the mire uh every time they've gone to socialism it's only been millions of dead in huge in bigger wars so the history of socialism is horrible uh but at the same time if you're trading stocks what do you got to look forward to um you got 20 people running for president of that about 15 of them uh are going to try out do every other person in there going to the far left and that's all you're going to hear about and certainly you're not going to get anything through congress uh at least positive for health care and health care providers so I don't know if there's a lot to do out there other than that uh yeah bring your own scaffolds band-aids uh I don't understand like I said just truly uninformed people but guess what there is that socialist soviet wave rolling through the ill-informed and you've got to worry about it if you're going to invest we'll be back in a minute the path of least resistance is david white's daily trading newsletter and if you're looking for active trading ideas then now's a perfect time for a 30 day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service david uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter using a combination of equity trades along with options david keeps his subscribers up to date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted don't miss out on this great chance to get a 30 day free trial to david's daily newsletter the path of lease resistance with no obligation to pay anything david has been delivering solid recommendations for his subscribers recently and if you'd like to see the type of newsletter he delivers every morning then visit the front page of tfnn and you'll find the path of lease resistance under trading newsletters for all the details and to start your 30 day free trial today log on to tfnn.com now hi folks tom obrien here if you like to get my daily newsletter market insights then now is a great time to sign up for a 30 day free trial every morning by 9 30 I send out my morning letter to subscribers with market commentary on a variety of markets currencies and commodities to keep investors up to date on the day's trading action included in market insights are specific buy and sell recommendations for stocks etfs and even options which stops and price targets included for every trade in my newsletter if you'd like to try my newsletter risk free for 30 days then head over to the front page of tfnn and you'll find market insights under trading newsletters I use my years of trading experience to bisect and dissect the market every morning and give my subscribers the most important information they need to know for the day ahead I even issue afternoon updates for my subscribers whenever warranted with important market action I'm always scouring the market for the next great trading opportunity sign up for your 30 day free trial to my daily newsletter market insights today by visiting the front page of tfnn.com well go get them folks tfnn is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts in collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology using this first-of-its-kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups including guardleafs ABCs butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by thinkorswim for more information just click the thinkorswim banner on the front page of tfnn.com and as we said we're going to get to charts pretty quick as soon as I get off my softbox we get into looking at charts as I said earlier I had kind of a big update I was looking at handful of these we'll try to get through as many as we can but again not going to get to them all but that's why I have a newsletter AECOM technology ACM last high was February 5th 32 dollars with 1.9 million shares yesterday 722,000 today 244,000 as we go slightly higher 30 dollars 52 cents and again we're going to get close to closing below probably in the next few days one of the things that does happen in a market like this where the advanced decline line was not as good as one would think yesterday certainly is that the summation index is turned down to I won't show charts on that but the surprises come in the direction of that summation index so what we should be looking for our downside surprises right now Autodesk continues to creep higher on very little volume there's no real signal significant signal let me go back here a little bit farther you've got this high that you broke through going back to what is that the first of March that had 3.8 million shares you basically what five days ago 1.5 million shares 1.4 yesterday 980,000 shares today 869,000 shares do you get a little more but certainly you're not going to get anything close to that down candle you would have liked to see at least some sign of strength the closest thing you got to that was on April 1st when you had 4 million shares but you didn't break that high so you kind of tied but that's not a great signal it's this one that says you're probably going to go a little bit farther let's do some of the other ones out here AMC entertainment I think I in the den yesterday I posted an article about the first half of this year may be the worst in 10 years for the movie theaters I think a lot of people were actually maybe it was today a lot of people were discussing in the den during the 10 o'clock hour that what's going on in the movies and Amazon and Netflix and all that stuff with Netflix after the bell tonight but certainly you just don't have a lot in that movie theater business they've tried to get people to come along with dinners and all kinds of ideas to spend more money at the theater but didn't have done much with it AMC March 1st high was $16 and 50 cents on earnings spiked up there with 10 million shares spiked it again on April 8th with 3.62 million shares today you're up with about a million shares back into that I don't think anything changes I look forward to the movie schedule on Variety and I didn't see anything out there that actually said anything's probably going to get any better yeah that would make oh we don't want to make movies we what they want to make is roller coasters those roller coasters come out in the summer everybody goes see some and that's it but the rest of the time everything's empty and that's not going to work for the movie's long term not all this medical incorporated this thing keeps coming down on very light volume in that high 20 24 dollar range just no juice to the downside not too many stocks can actually say that most are failing at the highs benchmark electronics bhe going into a 600,000 650,000 shares spike that goes back to February 8th that was a 2917 we're up to 2981 today with 136,000 shares now that doesn't mean to pull the trigger now but once these IPOs come out once we go into Thursday if the volume is so absolutely pathetic you either want to take a short on Thursday's close or you want to wait till Monday and see whether or not you get a better position and something changes but incredibly incredibly thin and brittle markets are around us Brady as we talked about this one yesterday was up on light volume into the previous high still no word on whether or not they show all the people's faces in various blocks looking up and down for the Brady bunch BRC February 21st 48 dollars 62 cents 640,000 shares so what have we had over here on the right hand side of the chart a lot of nothing two days ago 164,000 shares yesterday 151,000 shares today 74,000 shares caterpillar trying to break out from eyes again not a lot of juice the first one we see is the December 3rd high at 142 41 with 9.4 million shares tested again on February 25th 142 55 with 4.4 million shares now you got a spike into it yesterday with 3 million shares today we're doing 1.6 million shares as it pushes 1.7 million shares as it pushes higher again you can give me call<PHONE_NUMBER> or you can email me at path at tfnn.com let's see what else we have here that I want to go look at seco not a big fan of four pay education but I certainly wouldn't be shorting a $17 stock but certainly wouldn't be long this one either it jumped up on to February 21st and that had 1.6 million shares up to 1772 got to 1803 two days ago with 642,000 shares yesterday 355,000 shares today 250,000 shares so far so hanging up there and pretty rarefied air as most of these are cabin oil and gas as I said the last few days I think we've seen a high in crude we'll be looking forward to the numbers tomorrow doesn't mean we instantly roll over up 64 cents today on crude itself to 2k and what do we have Cabot oil and gas $27 and 40 cents that was with 12 million shares on November 14th got into it a few days ago with three and a half million shares up today on two and a half million shares so again a lot and two on the power law vector indicators if you're not why if you're watching on tiger tv or looking through my update this morning in the newsletter the February 8th low up to these diss had nothing I mean very very light now we have a pop in serious logic today we've been talking about that one for a while now this gets you back up into the pop of March 12th actually looks a little bit better than you than I had been looking about you wanted about 800,000 shares from the August 28th I you're going through that of course with probably about the same volume you're getting from that March 12th but again just very light and now you're going in this huge candle with 2.7 million shares on the way down of the second of that we'll be back if you're in the cd market and looking for a secure investment the tiger first mortgage program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in st. Petersburg florida the tax act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits which makes these lots valuable the investment is anywhere from 30,000 to 75,000 the interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis according to bankrate.com the best rate for a four-year cd in the country as of February 20th is 3.1% of $50,000 investment at a normal four-year cd rate of 3.1% would give you income of 1550 per year or 6200 over the four-year period that same $50,000 investment in the tiger first mortgage program would give you 3500 per year or 14,000 over the four years which would you prefer 6200 or 14,000 of interest on your investment if you'd like more information about the tiger first mortgage program you can call me at<PHONE_NUMBER> that's<PHONE_NUMBER> if you haven't checked out the newsletters page of tfnn.com what are you waiting for all of the tfnn newsletters are informative up-to-date affordable and must have for every trader looking to gain a competitive informational edge in today's markets tfnn newsletters cover every aspect of the markets to offer you the very latest in market news plus new subscribers get to test drive our newsletters risk-free for 30 days from all aspects of the markets including stocks bonds metals commodities and tech there's a newsletter to fit your needs exclusively from tfnn stay informed each day you trade and get the competitive edge that will help you stay ahead of the game visit our newsletters page by going to tfnn.com and click the newsletters button near the top of the page tfnn.com educating investors will the s and p 500 continue to climb for bold trades on us large cap stocks in either direction trade spxl spu u or spxs directions daily s and p 500 bull and bear leveraged etfs direction leveraged etfs an investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call<PHONE_NUMBER> or visit direction investments dot com a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services llc don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv for the latest market information we have a question from the den and that is uh taking a look at quiet riot blockchain it's not the real name it's just that all i can think of every time i see riot blockchain is quiet riot and that guy with a horrible hair that sings we are not gonna take it what was his name d something d something anyway now if you look at the chart go back here a little bit farther you did make a low you did make it with more volume down here on buck 29 but guess what everybody in this dog was short this thing and of course now it's going back up they can't short it under five bucks and that's exactly where you're at if you got into this for a play and i'm not very bullish in the entire market in fact let's take do i have it i don't have it if you do take a look at this here's the play that is anything about five bucks and people are going to start shorting it a bore so you've got instant supply line about five bucks because a lot of people believe this thing's going to zero again so what you could have you've got two nice big gaps you could get a third but if you got a third i would instantly sell it i mean within 10 seconds of the thing opening up on a gap higher i would be out of it if you're trying to if it tries to chew its way through that five dollar level you're probably never ever gonna get it you're gonna have to make your money on the gap and sell the gap almost instantaneously because my guess is everybody in their dog will be all over to short this one um i do not have the short data on it now uh skywork solution s wks uh do i think it's going to run to 115 before uh pulling back um i actually was looking at this and some of the other ones out here is incredibly weak stocks it's not as bad as some but man i hate the volume right now november 1st you had $89.51 on 1.85 million shares today you're getting into that with 700 000 shares now volume doesn't instantly um um turn a stock but man you're in some extremely thin and rarefied air for these i do not like basically being long at any point or gesture even if it there's an 80 chance that we go up maybe another 20 points but there's a probably 20 chance that we go down a couple of uh days and we find ourselves down 100 points on the s and b cash now it's probably going to be next week we're probably going to just eke out uh a move higher into thursday but if we don't get some kind of catalyst to move this market higher i think a lot of people are going to get tired of waiting for the trade deal that probably will not come till next spring my guess uh and everybody will just be uh hanging out but i have a feeling that we're sucking out the last of the cash with these ipos uh there hasn't been a lot of movement up with any kind of gusto and again we'll go through a bunch of other stocks before the end of the day but um i'm nervous i can't say that you that there's a signal to short uh but man a lot of these stocks just look like screaming shorts out there today only a couple of them look fairly good at the lows uh to to what else do we have i don't know what this thing is we'll move on cvi okay uh cvr energy uh banging around 45 the spike on may 22nd came with 45 and two cents in last year uh tried to get into it on october 25 uh yeah october 31st and didn't quite make it last fall uh and we got a little pop in here with 335 000 shares a couple of days ago so about half volume again the energy wasn't anything exciting off that december 24th low it's been kind of light for a while entg i think we looked at this one yesterday too in tegris um they just make stuff up these days i don't think that there's much else out there we've got todd in colorado how you doing todd doing five days how are you this morning another day this afternoon for you and paradise i got all the doors open this is uh it's been kind of like a cold uh or nasty uh i wouldn't even call it spring it's our winter down here but it normally you know you've got a lot of days where i can get out to the pool and everything it's been very hit and miss this year just you know there's been a few nice days but it hadn't been that 90 days of perfect weather today this is the uh this is what you want for the uh chamber of commerce for clear water uh to be out there because there it can't be any better and more perfect and i try to get out and walk the dogs every chance i get today but uh we're calling about us steel us you know yeah it's been beaten up and you know you made the comment yesterday about the world's economies are did you say roaring right now they're doing good wondering how to capitalize on that so i was thinking about us deal all these bets i think there was somebody else that called on a steel company a week ago and i said the same thing i think he got hammered over the last few days that is that these will run if you get a trade deal right but if you don't okay it's going to be tough you in fact playing one of these steel plays i think i told him the same thing which is you have to look at these as non-expiring options which means you get in these things and you go okay what am i going to do i'm going to buy a hundred shares of these things where i'd normally buy a thousand and i'm just going to sit on it like an option and one day the thing's going to run uh and i'm not going to be able to time the news exactly maybe i can maybe i can't but you know you have to look at these as non-expiring options which means that you put in a little money not a whole lot and you just sit on them uh until you get the big pop but i to tell you the truth i don't see anything in the charts right now and that's i keep on saying that i think this is everybody's waiting for the trade deal and that trade deal will come but it's not going to be easy with the chinese they think in terms of 20 and 50 years we we think in terms of next week there are no hurry to damn anything i've been over there i know two things they're the biggest racists in the world they hate everybody and if they can if they believe it is their destiny to take your money whoever it is they're next door neighbors you know not steal it but if they can kind of you know put some radioactive waste in your dog food uh to kind of make it you know a few extra dollars it may no real problem with them let me put it this way they've got a real problem with ethics and they don't have any problem i mean the japanese hate the chinese chinese hate the the koreans the koreans hate the japanese it's a it's a tough thing anyway what's feel the noise huh we're going to break we'll be back in a minute hopefully you can hang on we'll talk more about steal i'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life it's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets i'm steve rhodes author of mastering probability and for the last 12 months timer digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the s and p 500 for the last 12 6 and 3 months timer digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well the fact is markets can be timed and i'll teach you the exact set of tools that i use that has transformed me into one of the best at what i do sign up for mastering probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the home page of tfn.com and get immediate access to workshops where i take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls to sign up today david whites newsletter the technology insider is focused like a laser on finding the next big things in technology if you would invest in only ten thousand dollars in microsoft in 1986 you'd have been a millionaire by 2000 disruptive technology like microsoft's is the key to these massive long-term profits and the tech insider is the vehicle from tfn to capitalize on these opportunities this is the go-to newsletter that identifies monitors and profits on mostly little known cutting-edge companies with great long-term prospects david's experience is as an inventor of emmy winning 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Chapman wave methodology along with other indicators basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter right now you can get a two-week free trial to the opening call basil's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of tfn and dot com cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing get your two-week free trial to Basil's newsletter the opening call today by visiting tfn and dot com catch Tom O'Brien professional trader and educator founder of tfn and also a special guest on CNBC Tom will bisect and dissect the markets the Tom O'Brien show next on tfn we're back and having a little fun in the den talking as we're waiting for the market actually do something that we can jump up and scream about talking about formaldehyde up two and a half points on the s&p cash and 77 on the Dow a little bit of juice there and back to 30 on the nasdaq Russell's up five so we got well let's check out the volume here real quickly we still oh he's still on Todd you still there i am okay so what else are you thinking on steel here i i i i like it but again it's all about timing on this and the question is when's that going to come and i don't think you're going to know i mean we've cried woof a hundred times on how things are going well so other than them saying i'm signing a deal and if you can catch that during the trading uh business i i think there's probably a nice run coming after it but i i don't know the risk reward just doesn't sound good to me unless you decide that you can get in at the right time which is the announcement of that trade deal right right so is there a company other than us deal you like better i mean like whirlpool anybody that makes white goods here in the united states because generally that trade deal looks like it's going to um be very tough on those so whirlpool any of those others but again you got to wait until that trade deals actually signed now another thing would be if the trade deal doesn't get signed then the tariffs going to hit and us deal probably going to move up to three bucks i would imagine uh within a day or two if that happens too so it's not that i totally hate the trade it's just that you're waiting for something to happen either to get signed or not get signed we're going uh to the end of the show here already oh so when you cannot when you have to we'll see you here tomorrow same bat channel same bat time


So, Elivist Pete's presidential campaign was on the brink of death until the mainstream media wished a surge into existence, and then lo and behold, he started ACTUALLY surging. It's almost like the mainstream media has way more influence than people realize. Now at first, you know, it was evident that they were overstating the surge, they were being overly hyperbolic, but after weeks of fighting coverage and nonstop praise, well, he now actually is surging. And it's to the point where I don't think we could ignore these numbers, this is pretty startling actually. So, according to a CNN poll, he jumped to first place in Iowa and is now leading with 25%. That's nine points ahead of the person in second place, and that's Elizabeth Warren. Now, it's not just Iowa, because in New Hampshire, he also jumped to first place there, and he's leading by 10 points according to a St. Almsum College poll. Now, even though national polling only puts him at 8.3%, when you look at RCP averages in Iowa, well, he's taking the lead overall. And while he's not in first overall in New Hampshire as of yet, you can see a sharp increase, and he just recently passed Bernie Sanders. Now, they are still technically statistically tied at the moment, but nonetheless, he is on the same trajectory in New Hampshire that he was in in Iowa. Now, the reason why Iowa and New Hampshire matter is because even though he doesn't have much support nationally, if a candidate wins Iowa and New Hampshire, that can propel that candidate with a lot of momentum to first place, and they could win the nomination. Barack Obama ended up winning Iowa, and that really propelled him to victory when everyone thought that Hillary Clinton already had the primary wrapped up back in 2008. So if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, I mean, he could win the entire thing, which is really great news for Donald Trump, because out of head to head matchups tracked by real clear politics, Pete Buttigieg has the worst chances against Donald Trump, with a 4.5% lead overall. Now, of course, that still is a lead nonetheless, but Hillary Clinton was also leading at this same point in time in 2015. But we all know how the 2016 election turned out. She ended up losing to Donald Trump. Now, the difference between Hillary Clinton and Pete Buttigieg is that at this point in time, she actually was pulling higher against Donald Trump with an average of 5.8 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump based on a sample of polls that I selected from that period. And yes, I did do the math and averaged these out. She was doing better than Pete Buttigieg. And when you compare Pete Buttigieg's general election matchups with other candidates, he performs the worst against Donald Trump. For example, Biden beats Trump on average by 10 points, Bernie beats Trump on average by almost 8 points and beats him in crucial rust belt states that Hillary Clinton lost, Warren beats Trump by 7.3 points on average, even Kamala Harris beats Trump by 5.3 points. And when you look at all the hypothetical matchups between Pete Buttigieg and Donald Trump, I mean, you can see that it's a toss-up. Trump wins about half the time. And the problem is that, you know, Donald Trump hasn't started going in on Pete Buttigieg yet. In the event he were to be the nominee, I think, you know, it would be reasonable to expect Pete Buttigieg's numbers to plummet. Now, you need a really large cushion because I think that Donald Trump will be successful at possibly driving down support of whoever the Democratic Party nominee is. So you need to have someone as the nominee who can lose at least a couple of percentage points. But I think that Donald Trump would paint him as an elitist who's out of touch. Donald Trump would run his fake populist campaign again. And I think that Donald Trump would most likely drive down support for Pete Buttigieg and beat him. Now you can argue that I'm wrong because polling says otherwise right now. Okay, that's fine. But again, just remember that Hillary Clinton was polling better than Pete Buttigieg is polling now against Donald Trump at this point in time. So, I mean, I don't know how else to describe this as being prepared for another four years of Donald Trump if Pete Buttigieg is the nominee. So, I mean, the problem is that the media, by propping up Pete Buttigieg in this way, they are inadvertently helping Donald Trump. Because if Donald Trump is going up against anyone, he should hope it's Pete Buttigieg because Pete Buttigieg fares the worst against him in head-to-head match-ups. Now, Pete Buttigieg isn't doing any favors for himself because as he managed to move back into the spotlight, well, I mean, he's really letting his inner Republican show, which means that the Democratic Party base will be demoralized. They likely would stay home as they did for Hillary Clinton, not support him. He wouldn't have the support of young people and that would pretty much guarantee that he's not going to be successful. Now, to give you, you know, a little bit of examples of what I'm talking about here, he is using Republican talking points against Medicare for All and he conspicuously turned on Medicare for All after the industry started donating hundreds of thousands of dollars to his campaign. He is now arguing against free college because millionaire and billionaire children will take advantage of free college. This is nothing more than pseudo-adversarialism because rich people's kids do not go to public schools, they go to private schools. And if he really was about, you know, sticking it to the elites as he's trying to make you think he is here, he'd just be in favor of a wealth tax.  And on top of that, he also unironically floated the idea of sending US troops to Mexico to combat gang and drug violence that is literally happening because of our war on drugs. So he's bad on the policy. And part of the reason that Pete would a judge shouldn't be propped up by the media is because you're not going to win this election without the support of black people, which he absolutely is struggling to win over for good reason because of scandals that are plaguing his campaign with regard to South Bend. And on top of that, you're not going to win if you don't have young people behind you. Young people are not on board with what Pete Buttigieg is offering because even though he touts himself as the millennial who's going to bring about generational change, this is a millennial with boomer energy. He is not on board with what we want.  I mean, I'm sure that every millennial is just thrilled about this. Now, he also recently got booed by young people for disparaging Medicare for All. Take a look at this video. That is why we need to deliver healthcare to every American because you're not free if you don't have. Now, the way I would do it is to deliver Medicare for All who wants it. Take a version of that. That was young people who was shouting him down, who was shouting Medicare for All at him. On top of that, when he thinks not very many people are watching, look at how condescending and dismissive he is to young people who are concerned about climate change. This is a video from the Sunrise Movement. Do you support the Green New Deal? Yeah, check out online so you can see how our idea of dealing with climate works. You can see my housing plan. I don't know about other people's, but you can read about mine. It was just proposed in Congress. Okay, well, I just proposed mine so you can start with mine and then compare. I did read yours. Okay, do you think it matches up? I don't. Okay, well then I guess the answer is no. I don't think it's cold or comprehensive enough to deal with the crisis we face for our climate. Okay, I guess we don't agree. Thanks for coming. I guess we don't. The people to judge is garbage and you're not going to win without getting out that youth vote. You're not going to win without black people behind you who are the most loyal constituency. The Democratic Party has period end of story. But the reason why people to judge thinks he has a chance is because he has the most billionaire donors. There hasn't been a single candidate with as many billionaire donors as people to judge and he has done a number of fundraisers in the Hamptons with elites. So celebrities and billionaires love him. But if you don't have young people and black people behind you, you're not going to win. You will lose to Donald Trump people to judge and no amount of cringe worthy high hopes dancing is going to get young people excited about you if you don't deliver on the policy substance. So people to judge more and more is shifting to the right throughout the course of this primary after previously running as a progressive at the start.  So people to judge is someone that we all should be concerned with not just because you know we wouldn't get a Bernie Sanders presidency. Because if we got a Pete Buttigieg Democratic Party nominee, Trump's going to win. I mean, that's obvious that should be easy for everyone to see Trump is going to win if he's the nominee. You don't have to believe me, but progressives very early on we're talking about the viability and electability of someone like Hillary Clinton who was a centrist. Now I still thought that she was going to win against Donald Trump because Donald Trump was that incompetent. But I underestimated just how desperate people were and how demoralized some people were who didn't want to come out to vote, even if it meant defeating a fascist like Donald Trump. Pete Buttigieg is not going to win. And the worst part about Pete Buttigieg is that even if we managed to successfully defeat him in 2020 during the Democratic Party primary, that is, if he loses, he's going to be back every four to eight years.   So this is someone who is going to be an influence on the Democratic Party for years to come potentially and he's a negative influence and he's not looking out for anyone. He's looking out for himself. So this surge is something that really should concern everyone who wants to see change, who want to beat Donald Trump. Like if we care about electability, then choosing a neoliberal elitist as a nominee is basically guaranteeing a Donald Trump victory. Now it's going to be hard to defeat Donald Trump. I think he's beatable. I'm not going to underestimate him like I did back in 2016, but we need to make sure that we nominate the best candidate, the most electable candidate. And the candidate who's most electable is going to be someone who goes after non-voters, people who've stayed home, people who are young, who are getting out to vote for the first time, who are excited to come out. And that person is Bernie Sanders. So Pete Buttigieg, I mean, as I see him surge, I'm watching in horror because not only is he bad for the Democratic Party, again, the dude's going to lose to Trump. So if you're a Pete Buttigieg supporter, think long and hard about your decision to support him because this elitist is going to get crushed by Donald Trump. And I don't want to have to say I told you so, but you should have learned the lesson that 2016 taught us. And if you still haven't learned that lesson that electing a neoliberal centrist isn't going to get people excited, regardless if we're making history, regardless if it's the first gay president, that's not going to do it. That's not going to excite people. We need someone who's going to deliver on policy. Pete Buttigieg, his centrism, those days are gone. We're moving on past centrism and triangulation. It's precisely what will facilitate a second term for Donald Trump and a permanent capture of the Supreme Court. I mean, if Trump appoints one or two more justices, kiss all your civil rights and civil liberties. Goodbye. So people who are voting for Pete Buttigieg, you're playing with fire.