And welcome to CMC markets and joining to join me Michael Houston on Friday the 5th of June and This month's US non-farm payrolls monthly webinar Little couple of couple of housekeeping slides before we get started general disclaimer I'm not allowed to give direct trading advice What I can do is I can tell you to you know I can construct you on the finer points of technical analysis of how to Try and construct the trade setup. What I can't do is tell you where to buy where to sell But I can certainly teach you about the fundamental elements of risk management and making sure that you minimize your losses and Run your profits because basically that's what this game is all about.  You'll have some losers and the trick is to make sure that you make more when you win and Keep your losses down to a minimum which is easier said than done believe me I can tell you I've been doing this for 30 years now And I still haven't got it completely figured out and I have my good months and I have my bad months, but certainly Not all of my trades are winners by no stretch of the imagination and anyone who says that They can can they can teach you to how to be a winning trader In the course of about three or four months is a fibber Because it took me six months working on a trading floor at the sharp end. So it's a very steep learning curve But here we are so non-farm payrolls Another set of big numbers expected coming on the back of what was an awful April payrolls number. I mean when we look back at the numbers that came out It's hard to believe that when we actually look at markets now particularly the S&P 500 it's actually higher now than it was This time last month and yet The economic data has been getting gradually worse and worse. So There's a couple of questions that I've been asked Excuse me We've got We've got the S&P 500 up here and we can see that On the 8th of May we were here around about two thousand nine hundred We are well off the lows and yet the data continues to look awful and You know, this is this is the one thing that I as an analyst and the next trader really struggled to come to terms with When I look at the rising unemployment rate when I look at an unemployment rate that could go Well above Financial crisis levels of 10 or 12 years ago and then try and square it with the market rally that we're seeing quite now Things don't add up. What's happening on stock markets? This, you know, there's an absolute chasm on what's happening on Wall Street and what's happening on Main Street with rising unemployment and I think that's where it's very very difficult to try and Separate your emotions from what the actual price action is doing as a technical analyst the market analyst All I care about is what the price action is doing When you've got central banks and you've got governments throwing trillions of dollars euros and sterling At this particular problem That money has to go somewhere and some of it will go into the economy We had the German government announce another hundred and thirty billion euro fiscal stimulus this week It's come on top of the ECB European Central Bank yesterday announcing another six hundred billion euros on top of their existing 750 billion euro Pandemic plan and you've got the Federal Reserve next week With their latest meeting and they're likely to keep their pedal hard to the floor with respect to their own Monetary policy stimulus where they are now starting to buy corporate bonds as well as and give away cheap money to Small and medium-sized businesses that in essence underpinning bank lending for the US economy And when you look at it through that lens what the Fed is essentially doing is They're putting our floor under potential bankruptcies now you will get some But if you take away the threat of bankruptcy from a whole host of organizations like airlines Then stocks have an implied flaw to them and that's what that is really what you're seeing at the moment So If we look at the S&P and we look at the Nikkei and we look at the DAX All three of those indices have broken some very key Technical levels over the course of the past few days if we look at the S&P It's broken the 200 day moving average here Which is quite significant if we zoom that in right here we can see That we've broken conclusively above it on Wednesday the 27th of May We've managed to hold above it on each consecutive day after that which means that now that we're getting progressively higher highs and Higher lows That we are very much in buy-the-dip territory and I've said in previous webinars that I'm very much by the dip I think the downside is limited but while these tops are in You're going to have to be very careful about being short of the market Which means you have to be a little bit conservative when you're looking to go short And now we've broken above it the buying pressure has knocked away all the short positions And now the line of lease resistance is from move back to 3200 and these lows that we saw in early February It's absolutely mind-boggling that we are now back above the levels before the lockdowns that's how far we've come and No matter what you think about the economic conditions The markets don't care. They don't have an emotion about it. So if we look at the S&P Any downside now is likely to be limited to the 200 day moving average and these series of lows Through here. So those lows there around about the 3,000 area So any dips in the S&P are likely to find a little bit of buying interest in and around 3,000 same applies To the Dax and I talked a lot about Dow theory in previous webinars that I've done Where the averages need to confirm each other in terms of a breakout? I look at the Dax I look at the S&P and I look at the Nikkei in the round They generally tend to mirror each other quite nicely and the Dax is the same case in point here since we broke above this 11,560 area we've gone pretty much one way we've gone massively higher We've broken the 200 day moving average and we look set to head back to 13,000 But again, it's very much by the dips. This is this is the this is the You know, this is the area the era that we're in now and you can look at the slow stochastic and you can say yes It's overbought it is overbought most definitely But it's not a sign that you can sell it because this can remain overbought for a lot longer Then you can stay short because if we look we went over bought here Right, we went about right there and we've continued to go higher. So just because something goes over bought It is not a signal Not a signal you to go short You have to follow what the price action is doing first and foremost. We broken higher broken up to 200 day moving average We've also done that on the Nikkei 2 2 5 It's the same story right here Similar sort of thing and again, we're overbought but it you know, it doesn't matter It's what the price is doing not what the indicators are doing because these are just lagging indicators these here This is the key indicator here. This price action here tells us that we've got decent support around about 22,400 on the Nikkei or above the 200 day moving average while we're above it The mecca, you know the mindset if you like and trading is a mindset You're either in by the by the dip or sell the rally or You're you have no position at all You don't have a view you wait for the market to come to a level that you're happy to buy or whether you're happy To sell if the markets not at either of those levels you stay out of it. It's a it's a very clear cut Decision-making process by when you feel comfortable Sell when you feel comfortable But if it's not in those comfort zones of where you're happy to buy and sell you do nothing Because if you trade because you're bored you will lose money You'll make a bad trade and you will eventually end up losing money. So You know, it is very very much about the discipline of what You see as the best scenario for you And it's very very difficult discipline to learn because your emotions get caught up in that But that's why having levels to get in and out of and adopting a rationale For a trade setup is the best way to go. You have to try and take the emotion out of it Very very difficult thing to do, but it's necessary nonetheless and that is why I employ rules To any trade that I put on. So if this trade right here, for example, is Here, well, let's look at the footsie 100 because I got asked about that So I'll quickly look at that now And here again with the footsie 100 This is the only major index that actually hasn't got anywhere close to its 200 day moving average It's lagged significantly behind and one of the reasons for that is simply because it was one of the major indexes that's been caught up In terms of the worst performers in the sell-off. We had the oil companies. We had the banks They all got clobbered and the footsie 100 is very heavily wasted in oil Banks so it's lagging behind We've broken above the 50% retracement level at 6200 but I still think there's potential for us to go higher and retest 6580 so Again, we're back towards the levels we were before lockdown So it's fairly it's fairly notable that all of the major indices have moved fairly much in lockstep with each other The thing that we've got about the footsie is that it has lagged a little bit in terms of the retracement from the highs that we've seen in January To the current levels as is now because we're short of the 61.8 But we're running into this gap here and gaps generally tend to get filled and the bottom of that gap is 6000 Around about 6400 so we started to fill that gap and it's likely to act as a little bit of a lid But overall I still expect the footsie To head back to around about 6580 assuming that this ratty that's currently in place Continues to pan out So certainly looking at this candle here We can certainly get a slip back down to around about 6000 6040 but overall the trend is your friend and that's one of the One of the key things I always try and think of when I'm looking at a daily chart or a weekly chart or an early chart Or however long my time period is So that's the footsie 100 I've done the the S&P 500 before the numbers come out. Does anyone want me to cover a particular market for them? If you do just basically send me a question and I will do that because what I'm going to do now It's going to look at euro dollar as euro dollar has had an absolute Storming performance over the course of the past eight days the best run of gains since 2011 Which begs the question can it continue to do so? My view on this is that we're very much in a range on euro dollar And we're starting to reach the top end of this recent range. We're heading in to The weekend which suggests that in the short term I probably short euros of these sorts of levels with a stop loss above the highs of the day and look for a move back to The mid 1 12s 1 12 and a half there are there abouts so we could see a little bit of a dollar rebound particularly if these non-farm payrolls numbers come in slightly better than expected we've got five minute countdown at the moment on the actual numbers and I think in terms of the actual numbers It really doesn't matter how bad or how good they are Because the perception of the market at the moment is that we saw the peak in April Anything after that is likely to be an improvement. So on the ADP payrolls number earlier this week We were expecting a 9 million number Minus 9 million we got more than minus 2.7. That was much better than expected. I think a large part of that Was down to the fact that all of those people who've been furloughed In March started to come back into the labor force in April So the the number that we're expecting for non-farms Could could well be much better than minus 8 million I mean, it's a big jump from minus 20.5 to minus 8 But nonetheless if it comes in at minus 6 or minus 7 or minus 10 or minus 12 It really doesn't matter that much the face of the matter is it's not going to be as bad as the April number the average earnings numbers they don't matter and the reason they don't matter is because the reason They jumped very sharply Last month was because a lawful lot of the jobs that were lost were very low paid jobs So that meant that the average earnings rise lost All of the average earnings average lost a lot of the low paid jobs which put the actual number much much higher So I would expect as furloughed workers come back to the workforce that number won't go up It should go down the Fed won't be worried about that unless it continues to go higher So you're a dollar I'll be surprised if we go much higher than we have so far this week Quickly looking at gold Gold is a little bit of a worry. It looks to me as if we could be starting to Create a little bit of a head and shoulders here left shoulder right shoulder Their head there if we break below the 50-day moving average and below 1690 then I think we there's a good chance we could head back down to around about 1640 I think in the short term It's but we could get a rebound today Complete this right shoulder before heading back down. We do appear to be running out of steam I certainly don't expect it to come crushing off But it does appear to be consolidating at these sorts of levels if we do go below 1690 then we could go lower while we're above it We could squeeze back to around about 1720 1730 Dale 30 is probably going to be a similar sort of story As the S&P were above the 200 day moving average I would expect that to continue it has lagged a little bit behind the S&P And it certainly and it's a lagged an awful lot more behind the NAS that because the NAS that has made a new all-time hike so In terms of the actual numbers I still expect stock markets to try and push higher now because we're coming into a weekend You might see a little bit of a profit-taking As we head into the weekend because look at this on a weekly chart 1 2 3 those are some really solid gains Which means that Which means we could see some a little bit of profit-taking heading into the weekend, but overall Overall, I think that we're still very much in a buy the dip mode for stock markets Quickly looking at dollar CAD because we've got the Canadian jobs report as well So a quick look at the Canadian dollar that is right on the 200 day moving average So it'll be very interesting to see where that market closes today because if we fall below the 200 day moving average Then we could see dollar CAD head back towards 132 over the course of the next couple of weeks Particularly if the dollar continues to remain weak in the short to medium term but again here there could be an element of a Little bit of what I would call dollar profit-taking the dollars taken an absolute caning Over the past two weeks. We can see that on our CMC dollar index chart if I quickly show you that That's what the dollar index looks like over the past three weeks Could see a little bit of pairing of positions as we head into the weekend But overall I'm still very much a case of We could see a little bit of profit-taking I think the euro dollar could potentially find a little bit of a top above 114 in the short to medium term These numbers could send us back to 114, but overall I think the dollar move is looking a little bit stretched For the moment. So the numbers about to come out. You can see what we're expecting here This is the important number this one right here and the unemployment rate right here I'm going to close that average earnings number and just keep these three numbers here and in the in the meantime I will keep quiet and wait for the numbers to hit Two and a half million. Well, see so Wow, that is that's a plus goodness gracious me That is an incredible number that cannot be right. I'm just going to double check that number It's going to check that number They're bear with me and the revision for April is 20.68 million minus Okay, I'm just checking my Bloomberg. So they rose two and a half million pounds Two and a half million pounds half million people for grief That's an absolute So that's definitely I think the market's trying to make sense of that. I mean that should be a fairly dollar positive number 6.7 on the average earnings that's furloughed workers coming back in which means the On the average earnings number is coming down as I said that it would do And again a positive positive number on on the on the Canada number as well If we look at euro dollar, I think the likelihood is here We're going to see euro dollar pushed lower on the back of these numbers. I certainly don't see any reason whatsoever To see those numbers is in any way negative for stock markets because now what you've got is in a workforce that's coming back to the market running into a wall of fiscal stimulus and Monetary stimulus which net net should be positive for stocks It's going to be negative as a dog. It's going to be positive for the dollar as well So for me, I think you're a dollar is going to come lower quite a little bit May find a little bit of support or around about 1270-1280 but dolly-yen's probably going to head back towards around about 109 50 1010 But overall that's dollar positive and yes, what the market is telling us We are going to go for a trip now to the upside in the US dollar on the back of those numbers completely Missed market expectations across the board The economists have couldn't have been more wrong US US workers coming back into the workforce driving the average earnings levels back down which again is a positive for Federal reserve because they will be worried about Inflation so the fact that you've got more people coming back to the workforce is net net positive and you've also got the fact that The only the only the only the only thing that I would add to that is obviously the unrest in US cities could Slow down that process When we come to the numbers next month and as you said as I said we we're seeing a push to the downside in your dollar I said we might find a little few buyers around about 1270 1280. We've fallen a little bit short of that But ultimately I think as we look ahead Over the course of the next couple of hours It's unlikely that we'll see euro dollar head back towards the highs that we've seen thus far Does anyone have any questions on that Christ? Someone's just said to me amazing numbers crisis is over Well, that's what the markets are pricing. That is what the markets are pricing the pricing of v-shaped recovery And I don't think anyone and I think anyone expected a positive number I certainly didn't and that just shows you how noisy these numbers are going to be going forward Which means that for me it's less about the numbers and what about governments and Central banks are doing and you've already got the Trump administration talking about another one trillion dollar fiscal stimulus Next month as a reaction to the unrest that's currently rippling across the US So that gives you an indication of where we are on the fiscal side and the monetary policy side We're very much In risk on mode and really then it's just a question of how the currencies react Well, you've seen how the currencies have reacted have reacted and for me, you know, that's that's a real surprise From a US point of view, that's a very positive number and until I actually have Unable to dissect the numbers in much more detail my immediate reaction based on that price action is to start taking profits on my euro dollar long positions and Take a little bit of profit also on any other dollar short positions as well because We could well find that the dollars found a little bit of a base in the short term and We could well see a little bit of a rebound as we head into the weekend So I'm being asked about what impact that will have on dollar CAD Well, unfortunately, they tend to net each other out because we've also got a positive number on the CAD as well So let me just close that down and close that down and let's have a look at dollar CAD Now I would have expected to have seen a bit of a rebound on dollar CAD But we're not seeing that We're seeing very much dollar week US dollar weakness kind of a strength So I think the perception perhaps there is that the Canadian numbers are certainly much better On a one-to-one basis and they were for the US And I think if you look at what was expected last month for the Canadian payrolls numbers They were expecting if we look at this number here, which is on the screen where it says minus I'm going to move this around so you can see which one I'm talking to you We were expecting in April a number of minus four million Now we in the event it came in at minus two million Again, we're expecting a number of minus five hundred and we came in plus two eight nine So penny for penny or cent for cent Canada hasn't been impacted anywhere near as badly as the US because on both occasions Expectations were much better than the actual The actual number was much better than expectations which net net was a candidate of positive So I think in essence that should mean depending on where we finish today Mind you because we're trading technicals here if we can close today On dollar CAD below the 200 day moving average, and I think there's a decent chance We could see further Canadian strength and further dollar weakness What we also have to price in with respect to the dollar CAD is the oil price. You can't You can't separate the two Because CAD is very much a petrol currency. It's very much driven by what oil prices do now Obviously OPEC plus is having a meeting in the next 24 or 48 hours and oil prices Are higher so a higher oil price should drive Dollar CAD lower or the Canadian dollar higher and if you're if your base case is Concerns about Weak demand these jobs numbers are positive for oil prices Very much positive for oil prices So I would suggest that now we've broken above $32 and 80 or 33 And those of you have been regular viewers of my week ahead videos, which I do every Friday will know that I Said that once we broke above this level this series of highs through here in crude oil And you can go back and watch them on YouTube if you don't believe me because it's very easy to fact check me I'm not going to fib on one webinar when I know that you guys can go and check on another one From the week before once we got back above here where resistance Then becomes support. The likelihood is we're probably going to head back to $45 a barrel and maybe even the 200 day moving average over the course of the next few sessions and again here We are overbought but again here you trade the break and You trade in the direction of the break a lot of bearish calls on oil over the course of the past few months That would suggest that we're going to see higher oil prices And because markets will start forward looking and thinking all those demand expectations for oil Maybe we need to start revising them up and that will mean there'll be more demand for oil And and as a result the dollar will weaken and certainly if we look at the payrolls numbers There you go That's what they did in the post in in the aftermath of payrolls report. We've jumped quite sharply And I think if the data continues to move in that direction the market will become much more forward-looking as we move forward Okay Gold let's go back to gold because that number should have sent gold lower and it has So what does that mean? Well? That's probably likely if confirmed to send gold back down here So this move here from 1765 to around around about 1700 is around about $60. So if we close below the 50-day moving average on gold Then I think there's a good chance we could head back to 1640 1630 because those numbers are unambiguously good, you know, there's no two ways about it They've blown away expectations. Everyone was expecting a negative number to get a positive number as the best positive number ever Coming off the back of the worst negative number ever There's never been a plus two and a half million on non-farm payrolls We've seen records at either end of the spectrum in the space of four weeks For us payrolls that will be the headline That'll be the headline when they they write the They write the stories later today US non-farm payrolls posts record two and a half million added back into the workforce the unemployment rates at 13.3% Not 19.8. It's come down The unemployment rate has come down Okay, sorry. I'm getting a little bit carried away I'll calm down a bit Any other questions ladies and gentlemen, let's have a quick look at the the Aussie dollar on the back of that I mean that Aussie dollar breakout is quite something This trend line has been there. I've had this on this chart for a long time a long time That's what I call a V shaped recovery in the Aussie and this is the next peak. It's around about Just above where we are now 70 70 cents There's a big top there. It's the December highs so Keep an eye on the December highs in the Aussie dollar you could find a little bit of resistance there Simply because it's a previous high Okay Though again, it's a matter of extremes Anything else ladies and gents? I'm at your disposal for questions Please throw them my way. I got I haven't answered your question about the South African Rand, have I? If we look at that shot there We're in a little bit of no man's land when it comes to the ran and I think if you're looking at the round relative to gold then it's very very difficult to Obviously, there's no reason for it to strengthen, but it is at the moment. We're getting a little bit of We've had a little bit of a bounce back on this five-minute chart, but overall I wouldn't expect the overall direction that we've been in Over the course of the past few sessions to to be any different. We're very much in a downtrend With 17 17 round here is probably a decent resistance It's not a market that I look at an awful lot and from the technicals It's not really giving me a big steer one way or the other And if it doesn't give me a steer one way or the other Then I don't really have a strong view on it one way or the other Can we expect us retail? To regain to gain following this data. Absolutely Absolutely, you can if you think if we think that the downturn Is going to be much less severe Then all of those stocks that have been beaten down Will get a decent Will get a decent rebound. So when when when the s&p and the dow open Later and you know, and they're already looking to open quite significantly higher You'll see a big jump in airlines. You'll see a big jump In Retail, you'll see a big jump in hotel hotels and leisure and cinemas as well AMC entertainment companies like that Obviously the big big caveat and I really do I can't stress this enough will be secondary wave of coronavirus infections But it's the summer. So I don't expect that to happen significantly Um until the autumn when the weather gets a little bit colder That's always going to be the worry The worry will be as lockdowns are eased Um and people start to go back to work That the infection rates will start to go back up now that might not be such a Such a big problem in the summer because people tend to go outdoors and be outdoors more But as the weather gets a little bit colder in the winter And we haven't been able to drive the infection rate down To a level low enough that it can't multiply exponentially Then you could get a second wave when flu season hits In the autumn and I think that's the big worry at the moment In terms of the v-shaped recovery scenario because v-shaped recoveries are all well and good But it's not necessarily a v-shaped because you could have a bit of a recovery for three to six months And then you could get a second wave in the early part Latter part of this year or the early part of next year And I think that's something that we do need to be cognizant of going forward Um so the the bottom line is yes, we can expect stocks to rally further Um the NASDAQ has already hit a new all-time high The s and p is likely to continue to push higher Towards those highs that we saw back in february Um those numbers that we've seen today Um only add fuel to that because they're coming The numbers are coming into a wall of money A wall of money from the fed the ECB The bank of japan Um you've got a fed meeting next week where they could discuss the possibility of yield curve control whereby they control the um They control the shape of the yield curve so that it's got a nice slope on it Um stocks in europe as well. Yes, absolutely. Um stocks in europe are probably um cheaper than they are in the us So in terms of value They are much better value the only concern that we have about european stocks Was the fact there wasn't the political will To deliver a significant fiscal stimulus on the part of governments that political will Now appears to be there you've got germany initiating Another 130 billion euros of fiscal stimulus this week on top of The measures that they introduced just over a few weeks ago And you've got other european governments doing the same thing and then of course you've got european central bank um basically Embarking on its own pandemic emergency purchase program The only concern I have is obviously the german constitutional court decision which Um the ECB has to comply by um In august so that's the only cloud on The horizon obviously there's brexit which Never goes away and that's there bubbling away in the background, but certainly in terms of the overall picture It's a lot more positive in terms of The worst is behind us And really it's now a question of How quickly Can we recover some jobs won't come back? I mean, I think I think there is I think I think that we we do have to resign ourselves to that Sad statistic that some jobs will not come back and Um as a result you will find that the unemployment rate probably in three months time will still be an awful lot higher And it was at the beginning of the year Um, I think there was an expectation that the us unemployment rate will be at 10 by the end of this year Which I thought was optimistic when I was Looking at the forecasts That were they were they were putting out for today It doesn't look so optimistic now Because the swing on that has been absolutely extraordinary absolutely extraordinary, you know I was pretty much speechless when that number came out and you could probably tell Had time to absorb it A little bit now Um, but nonetheless, I mean those numbers uh You know, absolutely You know, they're staggeringly good when you consider what was expected. The big question is What will the main payrolls numbers look like when they're released? Sorry, the june payrolls numbers look like when they're released in july And I think that will be the asset test, but certainly the worst is behind us Now it's really a question of How quickly economic activity can resume in an era of social distancing because things won't return to normal completely So there'll always be a little bit of a break But certainly in terms of where we are now and where we were 24 hours ago We're certainly in a much better place and certainly those numbers Don't reflect what the jobless claims are telling us and that's why I'm still struggling to come to terms with it The weekly jobless claims is showing 40 million You know people are to work with continuing claims of around about 21 million And yet we've got a net gain in non-farm payrolls So people are still spooked by flying. Yeah, I mean absolutely. I am I'm not going to get on a plane anytime soon. You know, um You're in a cabin of 200 people And where the air is recycled Now you could be fine. You could be fine But I think you're gonna it's going to have to take an awful lot to convince me to get on a plane Not because I'm worried about going anywhere It's because I'm worried about getting back And any potential quarantines that might be put in place while you're away You know, and I think that's the thing you have to think about. It's not about The physical act of getting on a plane It's the physical you go there You go to wherever it is you're going what you're going to find there And will you be able to get back? You know, I still remember all those pictures of people stranded Um as the covid crisis started rippling across our screens in february march I'm staying in hotels and quarantining in hotels. So I think you know, there's an awful lot of human behavior That needs to forget the events of the last three or four months And that's only going to happen Say a year from now When people will start to feel a lot more comfortable about moving around getting on planes Getting on a train Getting on a crowded bus getting on a crowded tube train You're going to have people are going to have to modify their behavior to become more confident because governments put the fear of god into them And that's not something you know, stay at home control the virus do this do that and now suddenly you're letting people out and It's very true. It's very easy to shut an economy down It's a lot harder to start it back up again Because an economy is made up of human beings with same emotions Hope greed fear and everything else and they have to regain their consumer confidence So I will be looking closely at consumer confidence numbers to gauge whether or not that confidence is returning And people are confident that they feel That they can spend money and it's very difficult if you're wired that you may not have the job in three to six months time because There's still feeling the effects of this pandemic and we'll be doing so for the rest of this year Yeah, absolutely There may well be a second and third outbreak of this kovat 19 and this is the thing that you know concerns me not so much now in the summer months It's about in the autumn When the weather gets colder I think in the summer because more people go outside there's less risk of it transmitting But as more people Start to stay indoors more and then you've got obviously hot tubes and trains and everything else And people start to mingle more the risk of infection goes up and that's always the worry So while i'm you know while I look at these numbers and think yeah, this is bullish for stocks In the short to medium term the tail risk the tail risk is always a second wave That's not going to happen in the next two or three months. You may see infection rates move about a bit But unless you completely eradicate the infection rate by the autumn Then you run the risk of a second wave or even a third wave And there's no vaccine. Absolutely. I mean, there's no vaccine for the common cold And then the common cold is a corona virus It's a mild corona virus, but it's a corona virus This one is slightly more aggressive And as a result you may find that it mutates which means That you may not find an effective vaccine for it I think the best we can hope for is a treatment as opposed to a vaccine If you get a treatment for it Then it's probably not so bad, but I doubt that you'll get a vaccine for it Um, okay, so let's see. What else have we got in terms of questions? We've got asked about the layouts Um, is it possible to copy the layout you've got there I mean these layouts I constructed myself if you go to the word where it says watch lists This is something that I that I showed A young lady called Allison earlier About how to construct a watch list. It's a fairly straightforward process I've constructed these watch lists over the course of the last three or four or five years So there's quite a lot But nonetheless, they're very easy to construct So you go watch list create new watch list You give the watch list a name Just by typing it in there. So we'll call it test one We'll just test even And then do that So that's there and then you go to products And go to the library and the library It lists all the products in the asset classes there And so you go to crypto And that loads all the cryptos And you go to commodities that lists all the commodities If you know the name of the asset that you want So if you want to choose a stock for example, like Boeing you type in Boeing Searches for it. There it is. And then just click drag drop And then it goes in like that and that's that's the way you construct your watch list Now another thing you can do with respect to these watch lists is you can also You can you can also dictate How to display the columns as well So you can in this case all I've done is I've just left the change and the sell or the buy in there as well Which means that you can You can keep it as cluttered or as uncluttered as you want it to be so Example with with this one here We can have a classic table Or for example, if you want to display it as a rolling ticker along the bottom You can do that You can do that with this this one here I just scrolled. I can't see the bottom of it. Unfortunately If I wanted to To do it as a quote panel You do it like that Do it like that Do it like that you can you can display these In any any sort of format that you want. It's very easy for you to Basically change the format of them In a manner that allows you to uh, or said it is a price ticker along the bottom there And then get rid of it like so Any other questions? Let me see. Let me see. Let me see Yeah, the review of the week goes out each friday It's usually goes live on the website. Let me just show you where you'll find it It's not live yet. I recorded it this morning before the payrolls numbers. So go to insights And this basically displays all our commentary and what have you and then you've got the carousel down here failing that You can find it On youtube our youtube channel Which is here And it will be under expert views from the city And it's already there It's not live at the moment. Well, you know, it is live, but it's um can't be firm, but it's there Um 32 minutes if you've got time at the weekend. It is a bit of it is a bit long-winded. I do tend to go on a bit I usually start talking in and forget about the time. It's usually supposed to be about 15 minutes, but If there's a lot to talk about then I'll talk about it And as I say that goes out every friday so So that was last friday's one there where I talked about the payrolls numbers the ecb rate meeting and what have you and This is this is the one that I did this morning If you want to listen to that feel free right um good question the little ticket for Where I found non-farm payrolls you access that By virtue of the market calendar So you go to the market calendar Which can be found under news and analysis, which is up here so if you got that the news and analysis market calendar And then when you guys when you see non-farm payrolls, I've got a little bell there So you select that and you set it as a recurring alert So that when the non-farm payrolls is 15 minutes away It'll warn you that it's 15 minutes away and it will general generate a little ticket That pops up just before the economic announcement And you can do that for any economic announcement that you want Because it's basically displayed here. So if you want to do it for next week And go to June we can do that right now Yeah, come on So this is next week's economic data. We've got all June Now the 8th of June So as I say, it's fairly light But let's say for example, I wanted to set an alert for Let's say industrial output for Germany Then I simply go to where it says alert click the drop down I need to set a single alert Or a recurring alert And you can do that for any economic data point that's displayed here. So for example, if I wanted to set an alert for The uk gdp numbers which are out on friday here These are expected to be particularly nasty I'll go recurring alert So that when I come out 7 a.m On friday morning because everyone gets up that early And I've got my platform open.  So that's the market calendar in answer to your questions I'm undervalued european banks industrials in europe industrials in europe probably will gain Banks i'm not so sure simply because they still haven't dealt with the underlying problem in the banking system in europe Of non-performing loans. So I think there's a chance while we could see some decent gains there They could underperform And that's the one you know in amongst all this optimism that we're seeing Um about stimulus plans and what have you They still haven't dealt with the thorny issue of banking union In europe and that is likely to hold any meaningful recovery back Um when it comes to european banks Okay Any other questions? Okay, all right. Well, I will be I have I have recorded this so Um, if you want to listen back to it Feel free to do so it will be on the youtube channel in about a couple of hours after compliance have run their After compliance have run their bd years across it and eyes Um, otherwise, um, I'd like to thank you all for um tuning in Today ladies and gentlemen And wish you all a very pleasant weekend and Probably speak to you all same time same place next month where hopefully We'll see some more surprises from the latest payrolls report. Thanks very much for tuning in and have a great weekend. Thank you very much


Good afternoon. Welcome to the First Unitarian Society of Madison. This is a community where curious seekers gather who explore spiritual, ethical, and social issues in an accepting and nurturing environment. Unitarian universalism supports the freedom of conscience of each individual as together we seek to be a force for good in the world. My name is Lorna Aronson and on behalf of the congregation I'd like to extend a special welcome to visitors.  Newcomers are encouraged to stay for a fellowship hour after the service in the commons area of the Atrium Edition. Numbers of our staff and way of the ministry will be on hand to welcome you. If you're accompanied by a young child, please remember that if they need to talk or move around, the larger area is a good place to retire with them. And at this time, we'd like to ask you to turn off all V-PERS cell phones and other electronic equipment that might cause a disturbance during the hour. I'd like to also acknowledge those individuals who helped our services around school. Your preacher today was Carol Rowan, religious education greener, who's Stephanie Lent, ushers, our Shirley Chosey, and Paola Othelbach, lay ministers are Bob Radford and Shirley Chosey. Please note the announcements on the red floor's insert in your order of service, which describe upcoming events at the society and provide more information about today's activities. Here are a couple of items that deserve special mention. Our annual partner church dinner is coming Friday, May 15, and tickets are available today. You can stop by the partner church table in the commons to see the delicious menu, which highlights our Hungarian and Filipino connections. And there you can sign up to attend also. There's more information in your red floor's insert. Between and after all the services this weekend, peace polls will be decorated along University Bay Drive. You may have noticed them as you came into the parking lot. Some religious education classes, families, and FUS members have signed up to do it, and there are posts for them, but there are also some open spaces if you'd like to take one yourself. If you'd like to participate, choose an uncleaned post, meet at the craft tables, and let peaceful creativity materialize. I want to be around to see that. One last special announcement. Sasha Ostrom, our ministerial intern for this year, is going to be with us through the end of this month. We would like to send her on to the next adventure with messages of thanks and farewell. In your order of service, you'll find a half sheet of paper on which you can write Sasha a message. There's a special box in the atrium commons where you can leave your message and also a box in the back of this auditorium, along with pens, colored markers, crayons, and so forth. These will be put into a notebook for Sasha to take to add to her memory over time with us. If you don't have time today to write your message, please feel free to take the page home and return it next weekend. You can leave your message in either of the mailboxes in the commons or in the auditorium or in mailbox number 16 in the landmark lobby. Again, welcome. We hope today's service will stimulate your mind, touch your heart, and stir your spirit. It works at service. Today, we are privileged to hear from an impressive group of teens who have spent the past eight months in our Coming of Age program. As many of you know, Coming of Age is the culmination class in our Children's Relief Education program, and it's our right of passage marking the transition from childhood to adolescence. The Coming of Age program offers experiences that help our teens to better understand who they are, who they hope to be, and what beliefs ground and guide them on their way. They've explored beliefs about God, death, and misfortune. They've spent hours in the wilderness without electronics and with no one to talk to about themselves. They've talked with their elders about their own spiritual evolution, and they've looked more closely at our Unitarian Universalist principles and how they relate to their own lives and the choices that they make. This, I believe, is an international program that engages people in writing and sharing essays that describe the core values that guide their daily lives. Our Coming of Age teens have heard and discussed many of these essays during these past months, and after hours of conversation and contemplation, they set themselves down to writing their own essays, which they will bravely share with you today. You may notice these bamboo poles up here. These are walking staffs that were created by the Coming of Age elders and gifted to each of the teens at their wilderness retreat. The staffs were given to remind them that as they walk this journey of life, our FUS community is always here to support them along the way. We have them here today to remind them of that support and to share with you how awesome they are. Feel free to come take a look after today's service. And now, let's welcome our Coming of Age teens, facilitators, and elders. Injustice. You shall know peace and joy. These rise in bodily spirit are like the joy of being a seed. The darkness of being planted. The struggle towards the light. The pain of growth into the light. The joy of bearing fruit. The scattering of seeds. The decay of the seasons. The mystery of the death and the miracle of birth. Before we join together in a song please turn and reach your neighbor. Or forensics. Where I attempted to explain how people really need to be speaking out but they're cowards and don't do it. So today, I want to reiterate my point and explain my belief in speaking out. When I was eight, my parents divorced and my brother and I began switching houses each week.  Now, any normal person may have voiced their dissent to their mom maybe tried to get a lawyer but ultimately given up after a few weeks of trying to stand up for themselves. I, on the other hand, took a slightly different path that resulted in three years of my standing up for myself in a very nasty battle of will. Had I not continued to stand up for myself I would still be living in a home that endangered my well-being. This situation and knowing of similar situations in my friend's lives has hardened my belief in speaking out. On a happier note, my fellow paraphernalia, Quincy Izzy brought something to my attention the other day. While we sat outside writing our belief statements she saw some bird in a tree and, being Izzy, she immediately started fangirling over this bird. Now, many people have discussions but birds isn't a very common one but that doesn't stop Izzy. She proceeded to tell me everything she knew about this type of bird. It actually got me interested in something that I previously didn't care about. Her speaking out resulted in my learning and further connected me with my twins. Now, not everyone deals with situations such as these. However, something that almost everyone has to go through at some point in their lives is the ever-present teenage problem of a breakup. Most people, some time in their lives, have to suffer through a breakup and a lot of time it's them who's telling someone who loves you that you no longer love them is a terrible feeling to have to do and takes a lot of courage. I have seen my friends and relationships in which neither person truly loves each other anymore but neither of them has the courage to tell each other. Now, as I said before I am not one of these people who stays quiet when making something to say. So, when I found myself in one of these failed relationships I took action to spoke out like them anymore. Once again, speaking out safely from a very uncomfortable lifestyle and let me move on to better times. The power of speaking out is not one to be taken judgment for it is the power to change lives. When used wisely, speaking out can help anyone achieve anything so it is always important to believe in the power of speaking out. In my mind, I believe nothing. It would stay this way. As teachers would never be able to show me what it would be like to be an end-to-end Z on the Lisa and I each watch another flicker, callipatist or broadest have been branched to branch. At one point, the bird was completely upside down. My best description of a flicker is a tangled feather black and effective crest homicide and it splits as a bright red patch of feathers. I turned around and saw that is what I believe then. The flicker was now speaking his little head in a hole looking for bumps. She rose an eye respectively I replied, she looked at me. What about the birds? Then I knew right away that we lived in all alone. I believe in their beautiful song. They may be small, but they are a very powerful message to us. I walk home from school every day. I know some people who live near me, and we always have a great time together. But lately, I've asked them to wait a second for me to grab my stuff. And when they say they will, except when I go back to the usual waiting spot, they've already left me. Then I walk home, and I'm there, all alone. It's the birds that assure me that I'm not. Even on the coldest days of winter, they still sing to me. Even the gravity claw from Common Crow is still reassuring. Each bird has a different song, but when they sing all at once, they are one powerful voice. I realize how much preventive people are alike. There are hundreds of different species that all look, sound, and act differently, just like people. I think, in the spirit, I'm a Filipino. A rare, meaning bird is a cofrega, Jeff Raine, one of the most largest raptors, is very, very new. My friend, Annalisa, is a red-winged blackbird. Aprilia is fenocious. These birds, about the size of this small, long-tongued American robin, are loud. These birds like to be heard when another animal is present. Annalisa loves to bring herself into discussions and raises her opinion the whole way into a conversation. I went on my spring retreat last month. I was forced to sit in the woods for six long hours. I was separated from people. I didn't think I could survive. When Jim left me out there, I almost begged him to take me back, except he was gone. I kind of completely missed my chance. After what fell into eternity, in reality, probably only a minute and a half, I was already bored. I ended up looking around my site. I walked out large rocks and dead trees and jumped at every sound. After a while, I came across a skeleton. Well, that kind of freaked me out. After an extra hour, I spent my time collecting the bones. And then I went on a walk. I was at the end of the site, so I went by the hang one if I went to the right. So I did, and took a few turns here and then I kind of ended up lost. After two hours, I found my way back. A very important lesson learned. Just because you're in the woods for six hours doesn't mean that the rules you learn in preschool about not wandering off don't apply. Only thing, that is not like that. They do. It was a great experience, and the bones were excellent surprise from other when I bought them home. There were a lot of people who were conspiring. My friend Jessie is one of them. She has taught me that no matter what, friendship is one of the most important things in life. Jessie and I was in the same school last year, a progressive school called Lingra. I live in Southbury, and Jessie lives in Nysen, and they're pretty far apart. Jessie goes to Memorial High School, and I go to Southbury High School. Even though we live far apart, we still keep our friendship alive. This is something that I find important in my life. We became the greatest friends last year, and why would we let something so amazing die? We never will. This is a fact. My friend Jessie is a painted bunting, has Serena's cirrhosis. It represents her artistic talents and colorful creativity. This bird destroys Jessie more than any other bird. Another influence is my other cousin Lucy. She shared it with me and taught me Chinese dancers. Since my body isn't flexible, I'm definitely not going to be dancing at the start of the exam soon. This taught me something. I knew that I wasn't dancing because I was good at it. I was dancing because I was being me. I danced with my cousin as myself, no matter what dancing skills I have. Though Lucy is five years younger than I am, she's taught me a lot. This brings me to another bird. Lucy is a whoopie crane. The rest of me are proud. A few years ago, there were only about 500 of these birds left. Lucy's dancing mirrors the gracefulness of these beautiful cranes. The bird's rarity reflects how unique Lucy is. We're all unique, but Lucy is one of a kind to me. There is only one Lucy that. This past taught me a lot more than I originally thought. I learned so deeper in real depression I didn't think I ever would. I learned it by myself and found out what I... As David started, I believe in pianos. It may look complicated, but it may be arguably the simplest from the players point of view. You press a key and the sound comes out, which will always be at that sound. The piano only has 88 keys. But when you put all these notes together in a certain order, you can change somebody's mood or how they feel. But some notes sound great together and make you happy. Some notes clash and sound bad, just like you thought. Because the piano has 88 different thoughts and the song is how they interact. If you had this many people with one person having one idea and the next having a slightly alteration of that idea and the next and the next, you would eventually would get something completely different. So in that line, there would be ideas that would go great together. Or groups of people that if they worked together, the plans that they would have would be more than the sum of their parts. So how does this relate to a piano?  You have two hands. And with these hands, you bounce ideas, thoughts, melodies, and harmonies around. Just like two people with ideas, which is how in my opinion, things should work. Even if everyone had their own idea, all would never change. It does not mean that things cannot be amazing. You should work together with other people. Because like a piano, two hands can do more than one could ever hope to achieve. So what I'm getting in here is you should work with other people, whether that be a friend, a sibling, or a complete stranger. Now, some parents may be slightly minor or slightly diminishing on you. But overall, people are just individual notes on one big piano with seven billion keys. And how that means you probably won't get along with the person half a step away from you. But you should always try to work together. Because your goal, who are peace, should not just be you. You should bring others along with you. This, I believe. 10th, please possess just as they bloom in April, Congress, and issues. And taking the risk to chop it all off. I believe in the oboe and the way it's changed my life. It's the first of every weekend. And symphonies and the soon solos. I believe in stargazing and taking the time to sit under the night sky with a few of your closest friends. I believe in theater and forensics and the confidence both of them have brought me these past few years. I believe in ashy skin and sunny skies. I believe that although the sky might not look to me, its perspectives change. And it's entirely possible for it to look bright purple to you. I believe in giant backpacks and headphones and loving around textbooks. I believe in English class, even if I don't love my teacher. And I believe in the painful process known as writing a melancholy paragraph. I believe in not only focusing on the pills of a rose, but also seeing the Florence because they are just as beautiful and important. I believe in my family, in my beautiful mother, and everything she has ever done for me to make my life amazing. And I believe in my father, for pushing me to be my absolute best. And the fact that when he blows his nose, the whole house shakes. I believe in my incredibly talented older sister, who just made one of the most important decisions of her entire life. And I believe that I am insanely proud of her. I believe in my younger brothers and the intelligent caring young men they're both slowly becoming. I believe in Indian food and really weird volleyball movies. I believe in people and the potential everyone possesses. But more importantly, I believe in a community. I believe that in 10 short months, complete strangers can become some of the most important people in your life. I like King Dota. I believe in singing at the top of your lungs, even if it doesn't sound very good.  I believe in bad movies and laughter and just spending time with the nerds to have the honor of calling your friends. I believe in feminism and equality and the fact that we all deserve the best fly as humanly possible. I believe in the compassion of the human race. I believe in myself, which is something I may not have been able to say three years ago. I believe in snacking and pebbles and falling leaves and split ends, expectations. I believe in trying your best to do what is asked of you and absolutely failing along the way. And I believe in having an insane amount of beliefs. Because life is insane and you have to be open-minded. And finally, I believe that although my list of beliefs will change as I do, that is really better. This, I believe. It's like you let an idea of a friend sit. Just sit, until you can look at it again and make the whole sense of the situation. In the end of the year, I didn't even know that it was. I had my whole police statement set up. I talked about the heavy stuff and the blood stuff. That change was when I started to write my police statement about the ones with the space, the quality, and justice. I think it's been better just right. Writing a police statement is hard work. And it's hard to express my feelings. It's not something I'm used to talking about to other people. So how do I connect to the congregation when it feels like a lot of ideas are just running around my head? My mom said, just like her colleague. I was like, mom, are you talking to a person or what? Because I've never heard that word before. At that day, I started to do the one so often and realized it's the process that many people use to produce finished ideas. They percolate. Writing police statements, my peers started to figure out what it was they were going to say. I didn't know, but I was nowhere near happy to find inspiration or support. But nothing was happening. Zilch was your nada, nothing. Time. Time is what I needed to come around to what I wanted to say. And time is a critical factor in having people come around to my beliefs of space, science, the quality, and justice. All my beliefs, people have had to stop and think about what medicine is based on science. As Joe, it didn't take me a while to realize I believed in science and facts. For back to the 16 points, Galileo and his telescope, I'm not worried I'm not going to do future spinals. Three of the planets revolving in the sun is what Galileo believed. Yet not everyone in this time saw that thing. Astronomers and scientists had proposed ideas to let percolate people's minds. It took some time for people to realize that Earth can be a planet revolving in the sun and it's still taking time, people's time, to realize other beliefs of our time. Like global warming and the quality and justice.  Everyone has a heart, everyone has a brain. So why would someone think they're less equal to them?  Some of us make mistakes, but that doesn't mean we are people. In reality, we're just a small part of this huge universe, so why is this such a big problem? For some time to realize we're all equal. I think we should be done for good when we have issues like equal global warming and gay marriage. The time is time. People and everyone's minds, but for now, we're both from human hopping. There should be no boundaries to human indebtedness. We're all different. However bad life I've seen, there's always something you can do and succeed at. Well, there's life, there's hope. I'm not a Rochester and this is my produce day. Looking back, I feel lucky that my parents chose East Madison as a place to live. We have friends and neighbors we know we can trust and will be there for us. I don't have friendships with people from all walks of life. A quality for everyone is taught in that school with the same undeniability as math or science. At least for me, things like social equality seem like they should be one side because I've never known anything else. But then, very gradually, I started to learn that unfortunately, that wasn't the case. Not everyone thought the same way I did. Ideas that I thought were branded as crazy or wrong decades ago were still being taught and fought over to this day. I think that week in elementary school, where they had to close the school down because the teachers were all protesting, really finalized an idea that was already growing ahead. Those moral battles that people fought decades ago, the ones you hear about in textbooks, those never truly ended. The naming might be different, but the ideas people are fighting for remain the same. Even in the community I grew up in, I started to notice fights or behavior revolving around beliefs I thought shouldn't be around anymore. Lucky for me, one thing stayed the same. The principles I learned through the Unitarian Church. Maybe it's because they weren't what I was raised to believe in, but the principles really reflected how I thought and continued to think the world should be. Treating people equally, respecting people's ideals and beliefs, caring for the environment and the community. I once again found a group of people in my community who I knew shared my beliefs about how stuff should work. But I think this next thing was the hardest part on my moral journey. It was also the simplest, learning what to do with my beliefs. It took me longer than it should have to learn the solution was to act on them. I already had a system of beliefs on my core, something I could fall back on if I needed guidance. But there's no point to this belief system if all it is, it starts in my head. Admittedly, this is something I'm still working on. But I do think that even the smallest actions that reflect my beliefs, being respectful to someone who I disagree with, treating everyone equally, even actions like these are a far better way to reflect on my beliefs than keeping them in my head or even talking about them with others. It wouldn't be a morally acceptable thing for me if I just went through life and kept these ideas in my head. Especially with what I believe in, I don't think I have that luxury. For me and my community, I need to act. My name is Henry Little-Borman, and this is my belief statement. The Jewish philosopher Martin Buber describes the sacred relationship we share between one person and another in his writing of Dickeydo, which translates to IU. He describes our inability to have sacredness or connection to a higher power ourselves. But instead, the sacredness or ability to connect to a higher power is that in which we're able to connect to our fellow human. The physical space between two peoples was sacrednesses. Our human connection is the higher power. His idea of the human connection is central to my beliefs and what I'm trying to convey to you today. When I was younger, I would hide behind my mother whenever I met someone new. I struggled with sharing my special toys, which was all of them, and I had a lot of siblings, but not many friends. I absolutely think it was necessary for me to have friends when I was younger. Now, I can't say my family wasn't there for me when I was younger, and if you ask me, they might have been there for me a little too much. But I didn't have much outside of that. I wasn't able to really experience the human connection outside of my family. I think my time with that helped create more of an appreciation for it. When I was nine, I started to develop some more concrete friendships. These friendships usually involved playing Mario Kart and fishing on the lake, but it was the first time in my life where I was actually spending time with people who considered me a friend. This helped reinforce the idea of the importance of the human connection, though I was not totally able to grasp the meaning of it at the time. In May of 2008, my mother signed me up for the Renona Recreational Soccer Team in hopes of helping me meet new people, get a little more coordinated, and stop falling down all the time. This is where I met most of my first friends.  Most importantly, I find an ability to act on my first home weeks through soccer. Now, I know what most of you were thinking when it comes to teenage sports. Who cares? What's the big deal? It's just sports. But for me, it's more than a game or a hobby.  Through soccer, I learned mental toughness, how to take risks, how to handle both constructive and destructive criticism, how to cope with pressure, and probably most importantly, I learned to find a deep appreciation for doing hard things with perseverance and dedication. Not surprisingly, competitive sports are not a gentle, easy way to spend time, and my love for the game has not always remained a constant. Despite this, the life lessons have never stopped. One of the most fundamental things I've learned through soccer is how to deal with failure. As a goalkeeper, it's pretty clear when you make a mistake, and trust me, I made a lot of mistakes. But I can always take some solid soccer works because I know I can use the experience to improve my play. In May of last year, I was kicked off on my team. I have not performed well the past season. At 10.48 p.m., the day after I was supposed to hear if I made the team, I finally received a text from my coach. It contained 12 words, none of them condolences, and informed me that I would not be offered a spot on the team. Now this put me in an awkward position. I had been pretty loyal to the team and had not tried out for any other team. Sorry nothing to fall back on is all the other teams in the area have already been formed. So, at 11.00 p.m., I was forced to try and find a new team to play on. By 3.00 a.m., I emailed several clubs, a coach on the other side of the country, and some coaches who hardly knew my name. At first, I felt a combination of panic, frustration, embarrassment, disappointment, the pain of rejection, and the fear of being left stranded without a team. To sum the emotion up in one word, I was devastated. But I was also determined to take this step back and try to make it an opportunity to get to a new, better place. I was worried by nothing to lose, so I threw myself into the process of asking a lot of people for help and guidance for the first time in my life. Wouldn't it make a great story if the player of the team just turned around and joined an even better team? That night, this felt like a long shot, a very long shot. But it was the secret hope that kept me going. This was the first time that my ability to react to failure was really tested. We, as humans, constantly experience failure, but I believe failure is not what defines us. I believe that how we react to failure is what really defines us. I was not born a natural athlete, and I've always had to work extra hard just to keep up with the other kids on our team. I've often moved up in soccer by just barely making each team I've been on and then working hard to improve as much as possible till I'm ready for the next jump. It's never easy, but I thrive on being part of something larger than myself. I thrive on being part of the team. Soccer is still where I meet many of my friends. My friendships through soccer tend to be stronger, too, because of one simple reason. In soccer, everyone is focused on the game and working together. We're not distracted by social constraints or media. We're only concerned about the game. Too many of us today are too distracted by any kind of things, like the clothes we wear and the music we listen to. We constantly have our noses pressed through screens and electronics, and we become so enveloped in this that we tend to forget about what's important. We tend to decide on each other. Soccer is one of the places where I'm able to experience a human connection without these distractions. That's one of the reasons I care so much about it. The coming-of-age program does a good job of realizing this problem that our generation is facing. We're losing our ability to connect, and COA constantly tries to reinforce the concept of the undistracted human connection. And as a result, I feel like I've been able to connect to everybody in the program on a deeper level, from classmates to the facilitators and others. We have all benefited from the opportunity to show the power of the human connection in an undistracted environment. I recently read a story that I think will help exemplify my point. The story was written anonymously between two people. It goes, the two people are sitting together, and one of them asks the other, whenever we walk down the street, you always smile and wave to the strangers that walk by. I know you don't know all of them. Why do you do that? To which the other person replies, well, I had a story a few years ago that really changed my life.  In the stories she described her feeling of invisibility and unimpositing world, that no one cared about her, that no one saw her, that just one person, any person, and reached out to her in any way, maybe with a smile, but just a casual wave, that that would have made all the difference, that that would have somehow grounded her, reassured her that she isn't invisible. If that had happened, that would have likely saved her from feeling the need to end her own life because no one cared about her. That's why I always smile and wave for the people like that woman. I try to always see everyone for who they are, because so many of us struggle to find them ourselves today. The story reminds me of how reliant we are on each other, that even the things that don't take much effort at all can make all the difference in the end. We never know when someone is experiencing setback, failure, or their own isolation. I believe we must try and see past all the distractions of our everyday lives to realize we have an innate need to connect to people, to share on the other day. To me, this idea of the all human shares a sacred connection, that just being a person makes you some part of something greater than yourself, makes you part of this human connection. We all share a relation to one another, and we must further embrace that relation because we are our own higher power. I believe in this human connection. Chinua Chave does a good job of capturing the essence of this human connection and his writing of things fall apart. He writes, a man who calls his kinsmen to a feast does not do so to save them from starving. They all have food in their own homes. When we gather the moon and village around, it is not because of the moon. Every man gets to the moon from his own compound. We come together because it is good for kinsmen to do so. This I believe. Our issue is the giving and receiving of our offering, which helps support the coming-of-age program.   I just wanna, I just wanna know I swear she doesn't promise grief. Down to the real time, take your way to the dark side, I'm a single word song. I love you when you're singing that song again, I got a lump in my throat because you're a single word song. You share with someone. There are good, a good relationship is when you and someone else can laugh at an inside joke where you can make a mistake and they'll forgive you. They are by your side when you need them. They know when you need to be picked up. You don't have to worry about your views or the other person's views because even though you may not have the same views, your friendship is strong. And the friendship means more than just being right. A strong friendship is when you can be authentic and be received with compassion, empathy, trust, altruism, and unselfishness. In desiring our own success in life, we also wanna see each other succeed in life as well. A bad relationship is a one-sided relationship. They want stuff from you and when you give them what they want, they never return the favor. They're dragging you down. Sometimes you won't even realize it. They don't care. They're just trying to get stuff from you. They make up their own rules and change them for their own benefit.  It's easy to lose yourself in these types of friendships. Bad friendships can teach us what we want but we do not want in a relationship. We can then focus and attract the qualities that create better friendships and relationships in the future. When bad friendships like this occur, the good friends are going to be there to assure you everything's going to be okay. To try their best to make you laugh and feel reconnected again. I think I can speak for all of us and say, we enjoy the good friendships more than the bad ones. When my parents got divorced, I was sad, confused, and didn't know what to do. I shut down. I was in a state of shock. My friends heard about what happened and they made sure I knew I could talk to them if I needed to. They helped me through the sadness. They helped me get back on my feet and it really helped me. I'm really happy and proud to have such good friends. I believe in striving for good and meaningful relationships. Relationships challenge us to grow and to live with integrity and responsibility. To walk your talk. Thank you. And this is my belief statement. I believe in warm fall days. I believe a bonfire is the best way to end a night. And I believe in long lasting friendship and long-lasting. On the other side, I also believe in pain, heartbreak, and death. If there were no bad times, the good times would be meaningless. Through the course of this class and the ones that came before it, I have made lifelong friends that will accompany me on this journey we call life. As many of you know, part of our spring retreat we willingly spent six hours alone in the woods. Though I sat there seemingly by myself, I felt a sense of comfort knowing my peers were out there too. We're all experiencing such different things alone, but together. I learned many things from this experience, including the fact that we are never truly alone. Our little community here makes me really appreciate the importance of good friends and how much they can impact you in the long run. We need those people in our lives to share the high points with us and to help us shoulder our burdens. As many of you know, I am a distance runner. The past year I ran cross-country and track from my high school. In cross-country, you would think it is a very individual focus sport, but I do not believe this is the case. You do place individually, but your team is scored together. I had to race the best that I could relying on my teammates to do the same. I wanted them to do well because even if I ran the best race in my life, there was no guarantee we would win. I find it a kind of metaphorical philosophy for life. We need to support each other to help others reach their goals and for us to reach our own. My team will always be there for me during races and off the course. The way I was raised, I had never believed in a higher power. I received no comfort by praying to something called God that I did not fully understand. This forced me to create my own path spiritually. I have always relied on scientific evidence to back up my fears on this world. I have always held back on telling people my views because I was certain none of my friends or extended families shared them. For a long time, I just considered myself an atheist, but there is so much more to my beliefs than just not believing in a God. I have always thought religion was a funny thing. Some people may go through their whole lives without questioning the things their parent taught them about going to church, and I find it concerning because I believe everyone deserves a chance to explore their spiritual beliefs indefinitely. I do believe in connectivity and being together. That is what I discovered in my 15 years on this earth, that people need to meet each other to live whole lives and achieve true happiness. Whether it is your family, friends, church community, or sports team, there was always someone willing to share your memories with, and that, I believe, is what really creates happiness. Thank you. I believe in change. I believe in the knowledge that not only will everything be different someday, but that everything is different now from what it was before. I believe in redecorating my room. I believe in the fluctuation in the stock market. I believe in rough drafts. And I believe in constantly rediscovering myself. When I was younger, I went through a phase where I changed my outfits multiple times every day to the point where all of the clothes that I had nearly folded in my drawers a few hours ago were soon lying across my bedroom floor, rumbled, and turned inside out. The reason for this was because I switched between activities so frequently. One minute, I was playing a brand new game. The next, I was eating a new food. And soon after that, I was trying something else that I had never done before. I felt the need to have my clothes reflect who I was and what I was doing, something that was always evolving. In this sense, I am very much the same today. Though I no longer feel the urge to put on a new outfit every few minutes, I haven't stopped discovering new facets of my personality. And with these niches and crevices of who I am, come a different set of music or clothing or any other external feature to represent the newfound part of myself. My closet not only contains a wide array of black TG's and man t-shirts, but also an equally large collection of flowy blouses, skirts, and cardigans. Having such a spectrum of items gives me a sense of security. I feel confident when I remember that who I am today just have to be who I am tomorrow. Nothing about me will stay the same. Not my music taste, not my shoe size, not even my beliefs. And I think that's great. And I also feel that it's important that I appreciate this change. In other words, I think it's great that I think change is great. It took me a while to learn to accept the plot twists and canceled plans that life breaks. Change has always been a part of me, but it took me a while to find the hope within it, so to speak. There was a point in my life when I stubbornly resisted the currents around me, determined to remain the same person. And gradually, I began to realize that it was okay to be temporary. I realized that there was possibility in the temporary, and this applied especially to my beliefs. I've attended Peace Lutheran Church in addition to FUS for almost all of my life. I know the people there. I know the classrooms and the sanctuary and hallways there just like I did here. But a couple of years ago, I began to question whether I believe all that is taught there. And for a while, Peace and FUS, these two churches that are equally large parts of my life and teach me equally important things were at opposite ends of this mental seesaw that I had. I felt that I had to adhere to only one set of beliefs, and they had to be either the Lutheran ones or the Unitarian ones. It took me a while to realize the similarities between the two, as well as figure out that my mental seesaw wasn't necessary. Instead of having these two religions push against each other, they could swing and go down slides together. It was when I accepted this that I realized it was perfectly all right to have my spirituality change as my life went on. Sometimes, for example, I think I see something beyond human, something godlike, in a dandelion, or in the colors of my cat's eyes, or in a line of one of my favorite songs. Other times, all I can see in those same objects is the mundane, but I always see hope. Indecisive, maybe, hopeful, definitely, and for right now, that's enough. And that's the thing about change that makes me so drawn to it, I think. Things will always develop when change occurs, and there's always the possibility that I'll be happier with the development than I was before the change happened. Each time I withdraw something new, play something new, or remake myself a new, I tend to think there's a chance that this will crash and burn, but there's an equal chance that this will work out perfectly. That's what keeps me evolving and discovering the way I do. All the different possibilities that change provides. With change comes chances, and with chances, come hope. To be celebrating another coming-of-age ceremony and the culmination of another coming-of-age year. This is truly a moment to stop and give gratitude for our youth, the gift of their insights and their wisdom, and to recognize that their classroom learning at First Unitarian Society is over and their journey of lifelong learning on their own has begun. Throughout this year, they have begun in earnest to study themselves, to get to know themselves, examining their beliefs and values, ideals and aspirations. With their belief statements, our coming-of-age youth have given us just a glimpse of where this process has led them, and we would pause for a moment here to thank those who have walked with them on their journey. So we will begin with those who have served as the adult facilitators for coming-of-age and who have given these youth direction, insight, wisdom and guidance. They have brought patience, good humor and much love and compassion to this year. So if you'll please stand, Rebecca Bernstein, Michael Herriman, Jim Shuey, and unable to be with us physically today, but with us virtually over the web, Patricia Lianardi. To our coming-of-age elders, each coming-of-age youth is matched with an elder from our congregation. These people are carefully chosen to embody the thoughtfulness, kindness, commitment we hope to encourage in our youth. Their call is a challenging one, and throughout, our elders were steadfast and took the challenge cheerfully and joyfully. We owe much thanks to this group. Paula Walt, Suzanne Butchko, John Daly, Kirsten Sieber, and also with us virtually over the web, Tom Hymey. On this lovely May afternoon, we ask that you part the role in the spiritual and moral development of the youth you see here before you. Where they journey from this day is not entirely up to them. It is also up to us. And moreover, we must remember that the deepening of their experience as Unitarian Universalists is not the task of their parents, their advisors, and their elders of love. Helping them to blossom as loving and conscientious human beings, which is a primary objective of our faith, that is a responsibility that we all share. And now that they have completed their coming-of-age year, that responsibility, that becomes even more relevant and more immediate for each and every one of us. For these young men and women, you can serve both as an example and an inspiration of how people live out, not just on Sundays and Saturday evenings, but no more effective teaching than your good example. And so now I would ask, will you continue to encourage the spiritual growth of these youth that you see before you? Will you value their insights? And we've heard some wonderful insights this afternoon. They're emerging convictions. And will you recognize the gifts and the talents that they bring to this community and the enthusiasm and the hope that they bring to our world? And if so, please say we will. We will. And now to our youth, to all of you. We recognize today the work you have done during this past year, and we are grateful for the gifts and the talents that you have brought to us in your time here. Will you continue this journey you have begun? To grow as an individual, expressing your beliefs, growing in faith, and continuing to question and explore. If so, please say we will. And invite the parents of our youth to please rise. All of you, beyond anyone else in this room, you have been witnesses to the unfolding and the maturing of your child from birth to this very moment. In the beginning of this coming of age year, way back in September, we asked that you give permission for your child to come of age. And so we ask now, will you continue to open your hearts in order to receive your child into your family for all that they have become in this past year? Do you promise now to continue your journey together with respect, patience, guidance, and love? And if so, please say we will. We will. Please be seated. At the dedication of a child we give to each a rosebud, fragrant symbol of beauty, promise, and love. The rose we give then has no thorns, symbolizing the better world we would like to give to our children. We hope that these children whom we have dedicated will learn to recognize the beauty and the goodness which exist in our world, that they will grow in wisdom and compassion. Our hope is that as each rosebud unfolds, so may the life of each child. Today we give to each of these young people a rose in full bloom, symbolizing the beauty and the gifts and the cruelty of the world. But now we can no longer protect you from all that you encounter, both the beauty and the brutality. But no matter where you may go and how far you may travel, you will always be with us in spirit and we will always be sending blessings your way. So accept these roses, knowing that there are harsh realities in our world, but there is much beauty as well. May you choose to see the beauty. And now as we do when you are young children, we ask that you be granted clarity of thought, integrity of speech and a compassionate heart. May the blessings of an understanding heart, strength, integrity of purpose, love, received and given be yours today and remain with you into ever fuller life. If you will join us in congratulating our youth.


Hello and welcome to the session. In this session we will discuss the graphs of exponential and logarithmic functions showing Intercepts and End Behavior. Also we will discuss graphs of trigonometric functions showing periods, width line and amplitude. First of all let us discuss the graphs of exponential and logarithmic functions showing intercepts and end behavior. Now we know that the equation f of x is equal to b raised to power x where b is greater than 0 and b is not equal to 1 defines an exponential function for each different constant b of the base. The independent variable x may assume any real value. The functional value will be positive because a positive base raised to any power is positive. This means that graph of the exponential function f of x is equal to b raised to power x will be located in the first and second quadrant because in these two quadrants for any value of x, y is positive and logarithmic functions are the inverse of exponential functions. Now for x is greater than 0, a is greater than 0 and a is not equal to 1. We have y is equal to log x to the base a if and only if x is equal to a raised to power y since x is greater than 0, so the graph of this logarithmic function will be in first and fourth quadrant as in these two quadrants for any value of y, x is always positive. Now let us discuss an example. Here we will draw graphs of the given functions. First is y is equal to 3 raised to power x and second is y is equal to log x to the base 3. First of all let us draw the graph of this exponential function. For this we will make table of values. First of all let us put x is equal to minus 3 in this equation. So for x is equal to minus 3 we get y is equal to 3 raised to power minus 3 which is equal to 0.04. Then for x is equal to minus 2 we get y is equal to 0.1. For x is equal to minus 1 we have y is equal to 0.3. Similarly we have obtained all these values of x and y. Now let us plot all these points on the graph. So we have plotted all these points on the graph. Now drawing out all these points we get the graph of the exponential function y is equal to 3 raised to power x. Now here we can see this curve cuts the y axis at the point 0,1. So its y-intercept is equal to 1 and this curve will never cut the x axis so the function has no x-intercept. Also here you can see as x tends to infinity y tends to infinity and here you can see as x tends to minus infinity y tends to 0. Now let us discuss the graph of logarithmic function y is equal to log x to the base 3. By definition we know that y is equal to log x to the base 3 if and only if x is equal to 3 raised to power y. Now let us make the table of values. Now here let us put y is equal to minus 2 in this equation. So putting y is equal to minus 2 we get x is equal to 3 raised to power minus 2 which is equal to 0.1. Similarly we obtain all these values of x and y. Now we will plot all these points on the graph. Now here we have plotted all these points on the graph and joining all these points we get the graph of logarithmic function y is equal to log x to the base 3. Now here you can see this curve cuts the x-axis at this point that is the point which coordinates 1, 0. So its x-intercept is equal to 1 and this curve will never cut the y-axis so the function has no y-intercept. Also we see that as x tends to infinity y tends to infinity and here you can see as x tends to 0 y tends to minus infinity. So this is the graph of this logarithmic function. Now let us discuss graph of trigonometric functions showing period, amplitude and midline. Now let us see this graph of a trigonometric function. Here we have to find period, amplitude and midline of this function. Now period is length of one cycle and for this curve length of one cycle is pi minus pi by 3. Now this is equal to 3 pi minus pi whole upon 3 which is equal to 2 pi by 3. So period of this trigonometric function is 2 pi by 3. Now let us find the midline. Now midline of a periodic function is the horizontal line midway between the functions maximum and minimum values. So midline is equal to maximum value plus minimum value whole upon 2. For this function this point is maximum and this point is minimum. Now maximum point is at y is equal to 2 and minimum point is at y is equal to minus 4. So midline is equal to 2 plus of minus 4 whole upon 2 which is equal to minus 2 upon 2 that is equal to minus 1. So equation of midline is y is equal to minus 1. So here this pink line is the midline of this function and its equation is y is equal to minus 1. Now we have to find amplitude. Now amplitude is the vertical distance between functions maximum or minimum value and the midline. So here let us find this distance between the functions maximum value and the midline. So amplitude is equal to maximum value that is 2 minus midline that is y is equal to minus 1 which is equal to 2 plus 1 that is equal to 3. So amplitude is equal to 3. So we have determined period midline and amplitude of this trigonometric function. So in this session we have discussed graphs of exponential and logarithmic functions showing the intercepts and nth behavior. Also we have discussed trigonometric functions showing period midline and amplitude. This completes our session. Hope you all have enjoyed the session.