The following is a presentation of TFNN, the morning market's kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody I'm Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFNN Thursday morning just after 9 a.m. Eastern time we got about 30 minutes to go until the opening balance so much for the acceleration to higher prices yesterday the market melts to negative territory overnight you're looking at an S&P folks you're right now you're almost 20 points off the lows overnight we had a 3600 handle last night 3695 were currently negative 80 points that's 2.1% in the red at 3713 in the S&P's NASDAQ 100 you give it all back as well we're actually below anywhere you were yesterday in these indices 11,345 and you make it down to a low at about five in the morning of 11,268 so almost 80 points below you're still negative about 2.5% the NASDAQ 100 the Dow was read 1.75% almost got a 29,000 handle barely missed it by about 22 points in the NASDAQ and the Russell 2.2% in the red right now Bitcoin holding up relatively well considering where the markets are Bitcoin not actually down to the lows you see Bitcoin now trades with extreme volatility for Fed press conferences and Fed decisions not always how it was but as Bitcoin cryptos have become an asset class you could call it the ultimate growth asset class with absolutely no revenues whatsoever in one capacity but nonetheless you're trading a 21,145 for the price of Bitcoin this morning Ethereum is at 1117 both of those above the highs that we had how about the cruise market finally getting a pullback we almost got a 109 handle you make it down to 110 that's off a 123 from where you were Tuesday we'll take a look at crude real quick we'll zoom in on the action in terms of this acceleration begins in December now where's the lower trend line okay maybe we're talking about a trend that's more in line right here if you take just this portion of the chart that's a pretty well defined channel line this thing's been in since March 31st that does not incorporate the high that it had originally when the war began but nonetheless you see coming down to an area that we've been to before in terms of that trend line we'll see if crude bounces we're about 10 bucks off the high that we saw just a couple days ago in crude you jump over to gold gold catching a bid this morning before we get into the shorter term timeframe you check out gold quite a consolidation area going back to July of 2020 gold and interesting right that the lower portion of that now it's an art not a science folks but somewhere near the 382 pullback of the entire one it had from 2018 to the highs right after COVID of 2089 on a short term timeframe this morning you have the gold contract a little bit of volatility in both directions and we jump to notes and bonds you talk about some movement man we have the tenure I think I'll pull it up but somewhere near 3.4% right now but you talk about a move man so end of day Tuesday 1407 let's zoom in on the action we got movement yesterday just during the Fed discussion in terms of 2pm to the close of the market you had a low of 114 20 you traded up more than a full point what's the exact time 115 30 05 you almost make it to 116 so over a full point and if you take a look at where it is you're talking about almost two full points to the upside and then what does the market do overnight it gives it all back in the note market you are catching a little bit of a bounce you're kind of back to the volatility you were at yesterday you're sitting at 1503 but so much for lower rates and higher market then couldn't even last the overnight session as we're going to open in some pretty dicey territory right now with the S&P's down 78 points 2.06% we jump over to the volatility index to wrap up the market wrap up and boom we're back above anywhere you were yesterday I guess you did get a brief spike on that decision at 2 o'clock we got the VIX above 32 we're currently sitting at 3164 we ended yesterday at almost 28 on the VIX not too comfortable just going down to that level yes just yet 3164 in the VIX so to recap the news yesterday they hiked 75 basis points first time since 1994 I think was the number yes 1994 interesting press conference to say the least I was listening July seems like the discussion is going to be 50 or 75 they're talking about that they're going to be led by the data it was interesting when he got the question saying you guided us to 50 then you went to 75 why was that to put it simply and one of his answers I found some interesting is that you got data out talking about the CPI and the Michigan number as well during the quiet period and that's quite an answer and he kind of phrased it in a way that was you know very rarely he spent at the Fed for a very extended period of time very rarely will you get a data point number in the quiet period that will lead to a change in their decision in the coming meeting and in terms of where rates are etc nonetheless that's was his reason it'll be interesting to see what kind of data we get during quiet periods as we approach the meetings coming up and how that may change things but nonetheless the market was pretty sure was coming 75 that was where the probability sat and that's where it came in 75 or 50 is the next one and the market seemed to like that my dad had some great comments last night on his show restrictive rates folks they they're coming they're in restrictive policy right now and no matter what happens at the next meeting okay they're gonna bring it they're gonna bring it harshly and when you think about there's a great question they were talking about it earlier this morning with Michael McKee from Bloomberg on Bloomberg TV and he had a question talking about the headline number versus the CPI number and his question somewhat had to do with are you gonna focus on the headline number even though that may be energy oriented if you can't control the price of oil like you can impact demand by using race that somewhat would have more of an impact on the core numbers and his answer was a little bit vague but basically that number matters and that's where they might have to go and I was chatting with even Jacob last night as well and you know he had some great points as well saying man if they're gonna have to bring down the price of oil through interest rates that is gonna take some serious impact on the economy folks because there are so many factors affecting that crude market that to bring down demand for the crude market to bring that number down okay but that number's hitting a lot of people so you get both sides of it you understand why he's you know you can't say I'm gonna ignore the numbers that are causing the most inflation right for so long people complain that it's not accurate that you eliminate gas and food from the inflation numbers that the Fed uses when so often those numbers have been the ones that exacerbate the daily costs of inflation on most Americans consumers so now we have the Fed saying guess what we get it we can't just focus on the core number okay and these were not his exact words but there's something you should be aware of because if they have to focus on the price of crude now we've seen crude drop and maybe that's part of the reason okay you see the acceleration yesterday and we just speed through that number overnight you're catching a slight bounce right now but you were at 123 on Tuesday zooming in on the action yesterday we came into Fed decision at about 117 you ended that day at about 116 futures last night open at 114 email almost make it down to 110 we're sitting at 112 74 in the price of crude this morning what's gonna happen when that open and bell folks it's gonna be an interesting one we just got a 3600 handle in the S&P's putting this back on a daily okay let's just take this Fibonacci number off of there that's a dicey market folks let's put it back a little bit further for a three-year weekly I mean where are we stopping we're back to the beginning of 2021 folks just like that sitting at 37 14 with down 2 percent we'll be back with our man Kevin Hanks from TD Ameritrade Network fast market we'll be right back folks in a time of booming inflation we are purchasing powers eroded there's no better place to protect your harder and money than a goal this the gold flagship asset is the Monk Todd goal project in northern territory of Australia this is Australia's largest unveloped goal project we are talking a world-class goal project the tier one mining district this is a large-scale low-cost project with significant existing infrastructure in a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction this the goal just completed the Mount Todd feasibility study which resulted in a 7 million ounce goal reserve in a 16-year mine life all of this combined with the approvals of all major operational as well as environmental permits this distinguishes Mount Todd as an attractive dearest party ready development stage goal project this the gold trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol VGZ everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence this mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market to stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of sign up for the Fibonacci 24 7 newsletter at tfnn.com when you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the Fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious timer of the year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 finishing at number two for the year an amazing accomplishment Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his mastering probability newsletter Steve's award-winning newsletter mastering probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon sign up for Steve's market newsletter mastering probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free at tfnn all our newsletters come with a 30-day money back guarantee so you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit tfnn.com and try mastering probability 30 days risk-free today tfnn educating investors welcome back folks we have the s&p's right now you're negative 81 points folks that's negative 2.15% trading at 37 11 you were as low as 36 95 overnight nasdaq 100 we're off 290 that's an even 2.5 percent right now let's jump over to our man kevin hanks every trading day folks 12 noon eastern time right here on tiger tv td ameritrade network with the program fast market your host kevin hanks tom white they do an outstanding job folks of breaking down the day's market action and then they walk you through hypothetical trade setups sometimes multi-leg trades in the options market on the thinkorswim platform and they're always talking about defined risk and man quite a market we have when you can just open your eyes down 2% after the run we had yesterday kevin hanks good morning good morning john your brian yeah this is going to be a bumpy start to the day i don't know where the day will finish but the start is going to be a little bumpy but remember it's very important for your viewers to realize that these markets are choppy and bumpy and just because we open down doesn't mean we're going to close in this area we might close lower but you've got to remain focused on the market and what it's doing remember at one point yesterday the dow was actually down right after the number and then rallied all the way back so volatility with a vix trading right around 32 to start the day volatility is what's really happening here some forward p e's for the overall market are getting pretty cheap tommy so look for let's see if this turns into a two-way trade or just a hard down day i'm not sure the much you know uh some of the data we got was fairly weak housing starts to permit horrible number uh philly fed negative number jobless claims you know 229 thousand for the second week in a row that's starting to creep a little higher so there's a lot of things out there drone piles getting the weakening economy that he wants and remember this tommy we'll get at the you know a couple weeks into july we'll get second quarter gdp and if that comes in negative right which is only a few weeks away that confirms we're in a recession county yeah pretty wild man uh the move yesterday and then the move today we got the 10 year back to 3.42 percent the move across all the markets and it was remarkable man i pulled it up on a on a minute basis on the thinkorswim platform kevin 233 it took it took uh the chairman less than 200 seconds of appearing for his press conference where things accelerated higher 233 just a crazy move in the markets but the 10 year man uh pulling up the chart right now give me one moment as we get it because we had almost if you look at things kevin in terms of where we are just going back to the lows of tuesday i have a price on the 10 year of 1407 we almost made it to a 116 handle at the end of the day last night and overnight and then you got all the way back two full points almost in both directions uh what do you think about just the the general give back of everything that happened yesterday is the market you know you have two sides of it right kevin one of the comments he said was that next meeting is going to be either maybe 50 or 75 uh the other side of it is they're going to bring it man and they're going to bring it hard and they have energy prices higher and they know that their mandate is to get prices back under control and they're going to do it until it happens uh did it take the market just the end of the trading day yesterday to figure out hold on a second whether it's 50 or 75 at the next meeting it's happening and it's happening on a continued basis what's kind of your take on the on the market wrestling with that one well i'll tell you what tommy it's very important to listen to actions versus rhetoric because here's why drone power can't fix energy and energy is the dominant force in inflation right now and tommy they can talk whatever they want right around the world but here's the data here's the real data the api number that came out Tuesday afternoon showed that the u.s. crude oil production it is 11.9 million barrels for the fourth straight week tommy so it hasn't caught up in the last four straight weeks opac how about this may opac production data was lower than their quota and lower than april for opac opac plus production how can that be in a world where crude oil prices are so higher so wild a lot of rhetoric out there people talking down crude oil you have got it down today but the real numbers aren't showing up yet tommy cool yeah those are some great numbers man thanks for bringing it uh... and and and what about kevin his his uh... answer he had to do with talking about you know you had a lot of people saying you'd you'd given the guidance of fifty right there we go to 75 you would talk to buddy yourself in part of his answer at least was that well jeez we got this these data points during the quiet period yep and very unusual you know that you would get such data during the quiet period i kind of find myself saying jeez do we really got to watch the quiet period because we get so much data right now right in a in an ongoing basis and it's also important it's all moving so quickly what did you think of kind of his answers they had to do with the 75 that the market had almost priced in after as you had said so often man he's usually pretty solid with the guidance he gives and sticking to it i think that was very transparent of him to say that those late breaking data points cpi and consumer sentiment that were horrible by the way a week ago friday is why he went from fifty to seventy five basis points so listen that's what we want our fed chair doing right if that's the justification for doing it then i can get on board with that because he's watching the data everyone agrees that was an ugly number in terms of headline cpi even though the core remained pretty flat or was actually down slightly but he sees headline cpi which has got energy in there and he needed to act and i i appreciate that he did that he watched it right up to the end the data before making a decision pretty pretty solid that's why i keep saying good or bad he's the most effective fed chair in my career it's going to be pretty interesting as we get to the next meeting man it's going to be here before we know it we get so much data coming at us and it is moving so quickly as as the chairman says himself uh with that in mind kevin we got s and p's right now we're down 85 points we're flirting with that 3700 price mark what are you guys talking about on fast market coming up at 12 today well when we get to this late tommy in the cycle we we know we really can't talk about too much earnings anymore because there just aren't the numbers there at the end of our earnings season so what we really do now is go themes so we're deciding what the theme is that we're going to do right now tommy we haven't figured it out yet but it's going to be probably theme based and things that are out there trading right now you've got a lot of downgrades this morning bowing actually got upgraded overnight so we're we're making our final decisions right now there's a little bit of discussion going on it should be coming out the next few minutes what we're going to be talking about nice and i like i've seen some of these segments before of course every three months as we roll around right we get to the end of that earnings season what i like about some of the trades that you set up during this part of the year kevin or part of the quarter better said is that sometimes you're setting up trades that maybe they're a month or two right still using that options market because usually when you're setting up earnings for options trades and i do a lot of these myself learned a lot from watching you guys on fast market uh maybe you're going a week or two out past the the earnings event maybe you're just trading that those friday expirations but uh for the listeners out there if you haven't checked it out folks the great thing about right now is maybe you're building different trades not just hinging on that one earnings event maybe you're just looking for market pullback market sentiment i mean we're 3700 down from 4800 kevin my dad was talking about saying boy are we going you know to 3200 and then part of your head goes jeez we're not that far from 3200 right now man it's it's a wild market when we're 500 points away and we just dropped 500 points kevin and in the last like week week and a half um well kevin we appreciate the time as always the education you provide and we'll be watching at 12 today have a great day man have a great weekend uh have a great father's day okay take care man stay tuned folks we'll be coming back for the open if you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report the gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose every monday morning i publish the gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the xAU hui gdx as well as more than 30 different mining equities to see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting tfnn.com don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger's den hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the tiger's den available to all tigers and tigers for just one dollar for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the tiger's den you can look over the shoulders of tom bryan and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live tiger tv programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day even at night and on the weekends the tiger's den at discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well so it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com tfnn is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts in collaboration with tom o bryan and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system david white has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology using this first of its kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for fibonacci formation setups including guardleys abc's butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com welcome back folks we got markets open and you have a market opening down 2.3 percent on the s&p's 3706 uh if you polled most traders and you say where would you open i'm not sure you peg that number below any of the action that we had yesterday and markets continue into drop right now we might get a 3,600 handle on the s&p in a moment we're trading down 90 points 2.4 percent the wild thing too is that these numbers they shifted on the way up right as in percentages started to become bigger numbers on the way up and now they're starting to become smaller numbers as in we're down 2.2 a third percent right now you're off 90 points 48 points was 1 percent at the high right so we would take 96 points in the s&p's at the high to be 2 percent right now you're down 88 points 2.4 percent just bigger percentages on some moves that we're still getting in this market as you open down 90 points nasdaq 100 we're down 314 points that's 2.7 percent 2.5 as we we jump around on the open bitcoin 21,275 crude that's quite a pullback as well kevin talked about it 123 68 to 1209 the gold contract up about 10 dollars this morning and you jump over to the note and bond market we give back some of it yet again and we're talking about a yield of 3.44 percent just wild man now what is happening right is that when you had numbers that were near zero or when you had numbers talking about when you had yield i'll speak a little bit more clearly about it when you had a yield in the tenure of about 1.5 percent that's what we kicked off the year let's put it back to a daily okay you kick off the beginning of whoops back it up these are let me find the beginning of the year here because you have the rolling this is the beginning of the year right here okay well back it up so the start of the year we're trading at about 131 in the tenure and we had a yield of about 1.5 percent so when you got moves in that market the yield was dramatically shifting right because 1.5 versus 1.6 is quite a change 1.5 versus 1.7 that can be quite a change when you think it's adding a quarter percentage point when you're only starting with 1.5 okay that's almost a 20 percent move percentages off small numbers can be deceiving but they can be very large for that reason uh we're now getting pretty mammoth moves but you're gonna see the interest rate change but you know 3.44 percent is where we're sitting at right now even with the volatility we've been getting but boy this is not a market that is showing any indications that it's going to bounce folks we back things up on a weekly where's your bounce in that market right you could say that you have an abc the a point is 129 the b point is 117 i'm ballparking that's 12 points the c point would be an area of about 121 so you're talking about 109 would be the completion of that a to b c to d we back things up as far as they go and 109 maybe that's the highs of where you were in 2006 the lows of that area 103 we're at 114 uh kind of a no man's land here though just backing it up on the 10 year right yeah you're back to where this thing was chopping around in 2008 potentially um but maybe you break below that level and you're pushing 103 bond funds getting clobbered man that's 60 40 portfolio for retirees uh poof some heavy heavy losses to kick off the year uh the one thing to keep in mind is that you are approaching levels that that interest rates really begin to matter yet again um you know fixed income when you're getting half a percent at the covet lows when you're getting 1.5 percent to kick off this year that's a tough one you're getting 3.5 you're approaching four percent that may change the conversation to people putting some money in that and for the longest time part of the reason you had such a run in equities right was that people said what are you doing in bonds at this type of a yield you know you can't make money in that type of a yield and then we have inflation just crushing any type of a return you're getting in fixed income that market resetting a little bit boy we get the markets resetting a little bit we just got a 3600 print in the s&p's uh yeah all things considered folks okay the run that this market has had over x amount of years and you don't even have to cherry pick the low of 665 in march of 2009 you do not have to cherry pick that low okay you can go back on number of different comparisons in terms of where this market has been i mean even i did the comparison you go back a year so what did uh excuse me a decade so not cherry picking the low of march of 2009 okay but you go back an even decade so that would be june of 2012 okay when the market had already doubled off of the lows and almost gotten back to the highs of you were where you were in 2007 the market is up 2400 points on a 1300 point index you almost have a 200% return over a period of 10 years that's with this pullback that's not what market death looks like folks we have a serious re re pricing going on um but this is a different scenario than market crashes and you know you have a lot of companies that are making good money but they got multiples that were well ahead of where they should have been and you're getting a re pricing uh and maybe you come right back to where we were 3400 was about where we started covid i've heard my dad talk about the highs of the lows of march you're talking about an area of 3137 uh yeah and this month alone folks we're only halfway through the month you're already down about 500 points so if you don't think the market can get there and we're 500 points away from where that is and we've traded those 500 points in not even that price range we've traded yeah i guess so you gotta get it but we were trying to 4150 so that's 450 points that we've lost in a week yeah that's wild man 450 points we've lost in about a week in the s and p's uh and we're sitting at 3698 and you're coming within a few points of those lows we'll see how that market reacts all right jumping back to one of the dot plots uh to give you an idea of where we are going and the fed is getting ahead of itself okay i mean excuse me the market is getting ahead of the fed which it always does all right but we got a long way to go wednesday's decision took the target range for the federal funds rate to 1.5 to 1.75 right everyone's like oh my goodness 75 basis points so so far we've gotten a quarter we got 50 now we got 75 okay so that's 1.5 that we've gotten the original range was zero to a quarter say add 1.5 to that they're now in the range of 1.5 to 1.75 but look where we're gonna be things are going really quickly from here i think that's kind of where the market's sobered up overnight to say hold on a second all right the fed at least he didn't say we're bringing 75 we're bringing 75 again maybe he's maybe he was gonna come out and say we're gonna go 75 until i see an impact so the market paused for a second and took a breather but then it started thinking about things again overnight and said look at this dotplot man officials project 3.4 percent by year end and 3.8 percent by the end of 2023 they reiterated it's going to shrink its balance sheet by 47.5 billion a month stepping that up to 95 billion in september and i think the first uh securities they may have had started rolling off potentially yesterday june was the month but they didn't have any rolling off i think potentially until june 15th exactly i think somebody was talking about that in the den yesterday um yeah so i would keep this in mind folks when you think about oh okay market you know rally relief we're we're through the pain of it the the chairman's bringing it and we'll be fine no the chairman's gonna bring it it's gonna get brought for a period of time that is gonna be well into the future at this point folks and we'll see how it goes and man if they ever got to try and bring down the price of crude kevin said it as well you cannot really control the price of crude through interest rates that is going to be a hamper on this economy on consumers for the foreseeable future right now and if they are ever going to try and do that this is the type of market you're going to see with the s and p down two and two thirds percent 101 points it's not stopping folks say goodbye to 30 000 in the dow 29 963 um the dow approaching that 382 retracement the dow for some context 400 points away from we're pre-covid 400 points away from pre-covid okay nasdaq 100 you still got to trade down 1500 points to get to you where you were pre-covid and the dow you got to trade down another 300 points stay tuned folks and we're coming back we're going to going over some other equities that are moving today we'll be right back are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area including the surrounding st petersburg tampa and clearwater markets tiger real estate llc is a firm that has extensive experience in the tampa bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the tampa bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating tiger real estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future call tiger real estate llc today at<PHONE_NUMBER> or email us at tiger at tfnn.com at<PHONE_NUMBER> call us today the technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information paper bites investment newsletter the technology insider is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology that ships today's markets and tomorrow's future david white has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology his weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks as well as entry prices target prices and stops to set for each trade david delivers his weekly newsletters every friday with updates throughout the week you can get the technology insider at tfnn.com for only 37 in 50 cents sign up for david's newsletter the technology insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer try it risk free today with our 30 day money back guarantee tfnn educating investors will the s and p 500 continue to climb for bold trades on us large cap stocks in either direction trade sp xl sp u u or sp x s directions daily s and p 500 bull and bear leveraged etfs direction leveraged etfs an investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction chairs to obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call eight six six four seven six seven five two three or visit direction investments dot com a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services llc this program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz welcome back folks we have markets picking up steam to negative territory folks the s and p's off 102 points we're trading at 36 92 right now we jump over to some action so you had uh the swiss they unexpectedly increased their interest rates for the first time since 2007 2007 shifting away from the battle to tame a stronger currency to focus on inflation that threatens to get out of hand it raised the policy by 50 basis points to negative 0.25 percent that sent the frank surging more than 2 percent against the euro uh you check out uh the dollar swiss we had risen above parity and just like that man you take back almost three pennies you talk about a move folks on a daily basis my goodness we had our man teddy kegs dad on the program yesterday great interview at 40 past the hour if you didn't check it out folks head on over to youtube just search for tfnn you'll find our channel subscribe to our channel that's free you'll get notifications when we go live and then when you hit the video tab you'll see all of the segments all of the programs that we do folks you can those are archived you can watch those videos the interviews we do uh the interview with teddy that i did on my program yesterday is up there he had some great calls on uh the us dollar swiss he's had some outstanding calls in that crude market as crude sits at about where are we right now 111 27 as i said right where's the channel line now it's not not a science folks but since we pulled back on march 31st since she made a low of 95 dollars on april 11th uh we've seen a series if we just move this line a little bit those don't line it up pretty well we got higher highs lower lows okay and maybe that's all that's happening right here the last low we got was a low on may 19th less than a month ago of 103 and folks keep in mind these are some severe pullbacks we've gotten on this run right look at the pullbacks may 17th these are dailies we're looking at you're trading at 115 you pull back to 103 that's a $12 pullback okay may 5th you're trading at 111 you pull back to what 98 that's a $13 pullback april 8th you were at 109 you pulled all the way back to 95 that's a $14 pullback so we got $12 we got 13 we got a $14 pullback there and what do we just get we just got a high of 123 to 111 we got a $12 pullback $12 $13 $14 seems to be the pullback we'll see where we go one seven one ten a nice round number we'll see how crude reacts but nonetheless quite a pullback right now but still well within that uptrend channel I would say and Kevin Higgs some interesting statistics talking about output talking about production API numbers in the US Saudi output I mean folks you know OPEC would be illegal if it happened in the United States you know it's it's it's they work together to fix prices so shouldn't be surprising that when they're getting a hundred and twenty dollars a barrel that they're not going to flood the market to sink those prices because you only have so much crude they only have so much I know it seems like infinity but at some point in the future they will run out of those reserves of crude that's why you're seeing some of those Middle East countries the UAE you know transforming their economies for a post crude environment so yeah they're going to be able to sell their crude okay why not just let it sit 120 bucks we'll see where it goes man from there but none of the action nonetheless some crazy action when you look at the Swiss US dollar Swiss as they hike and they hike to negative one quarter point crazy right that's what they hike to but nonetheless that's where we stand all right jumping around some of the other good discussions we have going on today what do I got pulled up here Prime Day Amazon Amazon pulling back today but Prime Day is coming July 12th and 13th if you're looking for sales this is always a big number for Amazon sometimes you see it run up towards this number and then maybe sell off as occasionally the run as we get you buy the rumor you sell the actual news right they pull up in the markets again as we have the S&P off and even a hundred points Fibonacci numbers folks put them on your your your charts what did we just get all we got was the 382 bounce of the entire run lower Amazon March 29th post split trading at 171 you trade down to 101 26 you bounce exactly to the 382 a price point of about 127 75 since then you're back to testing those low lows right now Amazon down 3.5 percent after accelerating higher yesterday one I will look at folks okay is Roku so Roku has been punished in pretty dramatic fashion recently on a short-term basis you had Roku up about 13 percent yesterday I will say I've been talking about it okay and maybe this is what's given this thing a little bit of a flaw right now you have Roku trading with a market cap of 11 billion dollars there was an article out there recently that saw this acceleration so I believe it had to be out sometime around June 7th so about nine 10 days ago that you saw Roku spike something to do with Netflix potentially acquiring Roku very general article okay very very lacking of details but it is a conversation taking place and when you have a company like Roku trading at 10 billion dollars okay and they're the gatekeeper I've called them many times in terms of I think they have 60 some million customers that use their products to access streaming portals yesterday you're up 12 13 percent look at the action today you're down 2 percent okay but the Nasdaq 100 is down 2.5 percent Roku a growth stock had been getting crushed on some of these negative moves you know when you had the Nasdaq 100 down 2 percent you had Roku down 6 7 8 percent sometimes like that and today you actually caught a bid on the open when the market sells off so you ended Tuesday at 74 and Roku right now is trading at 80 for some context on where the market is let's put the Nasdaq 100 up because that's a better comparison right Nasdaq 100 actually below or at where you were on Tuesday you give it all back so maybe there's something going on with Roku folks I do have a tiny position in Roku for full disclosure but at a market cap of 10 billion dollars if you're willing to take some risk because this thing can move 10 12 percent in a day okay I was actually surprised after seeing the run higher yesterday I said ah the market's getting crushed look at that Roku they roped them in with a 12 percent gain then they're going to give it all back overnight and you haven't you're only down 2.5 percent you're still trading at 81 bucks when you were dropping around at 74 towards the end of Tuesday well off the 105 let's see where we are on a Fibonacci basis right now in terms of the bounce you almost make it up to that 3a2 not exactly what you want to see there but on a longer term timeframe folks you talk about getting ahead of yourself right COVID lows of 51 bucks and let's back it up even further than that 80 bucks folks on Roku is trading basically at prices of 2018 almost four years of give back let alone the run this that during COVID yeah so if you want to take a little bit of a gamble you know maybe over the weekend you decide to take a position in Roku maybe you take an options position over the weekend hoping for some fundamental news possibly well within the realm of things that can happen folks you know the greatest time in terms of being able to capitalize off of destruction folks the people that have money during that time right bargains are going to be a plenty for those that are in cash right now as this market continues to cascade lower that is an opportunity this could be an opportunity as Roku now at about 10 billion dollar market cap and folks what is that down from it was sitting at 500 and what is that that's six times the price so this thing was had a market cap of $60 billion at one point for context Netflix was trading about 70 75 and Netflix one is rumored to possibly be going at them now Netflix let's see what their market cap is right now 77 billion dollars and at the highs Roku was pushing a market cap of what 60 billion dollars something like that at 490 if they're trading at 10 billion right now 860 240 yeah 65 billion dollars they almost have the market cap that Netflix has right now so keep it in mind but I thought I'd bring it up because Roku you're seeing a little bit of a drop right now but well off of where you were Tuesday still holding on to gains of about six dollars on a 74 dollar stock over those two days so they don't give it all back and you actually got a lift on the open market was not catching a lift on the open like that so something going on there maybe you got some buyers in the market something I thought I'd point out all right folks do we get a bid today do we get a bounce we're only 20 minutes into the trading day S&P's off 101 points it'll be an interesting one stay tuned folks I'll be right back to finish up the show sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up TFNN.com educating investors everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence this mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market to stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of sign up for the Fibonacci 24 7 newsletter at TFNN.com when you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the Fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today TFNN.com educating investors this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com welcome back folks you have the S&P off 108 points right now 3685 watch out below man that is a negative action of 2.8 percent uh amazon you put this thing on a longer term time frame going to be interesting to see where amazon settles here you are back to where you were in September of 2018 uh almost exactly you saw a high there of 102 53 you make it down in May to 101 26 and this month we have a high a low of 101 43 uh seems all but natural you break that area 80 bucks is kind of the next ballpark that you have on this chart that it chopped around uh when where you were it's a tough one folks amazon down 3.6 percent today we got a lot of volatility to come in this market uh as kevin hanks was saying right we get GDP coming up we're gonna get payrolls before you know it it's already June 16th uh coming up on father's day for all those fathers out there have a great father's day enjoy yourself uh take a little time to relax and and clear your head because the market folks it's a fast one and we'll be back tomorrow i'm not even uh yeah i'm thinking it's Friday almost because i talked to kevin tuesday wednesday thursday so wish him a happy father's day but i'll be back tomorrow and we got a full day of programming today man it's going to be a wild one right now with the s and p's off 102 we jump over to the vix volatility index 3146 putting this thing on a daily going back you can see we reach a high in the vix on june 13th of 3505 we're not even right back up to that level yet which is interesting when you think about where the market is in the s and p in terms of 3690 that's talking about lows folks and you don't have the vix at highs uh yeah we'll leave it at that all right let's jump around to some of the fang stocks see how they're opening up microsoft off 2.5 percent right now you jump over to google shares off 1.4 percent right now we jump to tesla tesla how about a six percent haircut they got some news out today uh the pain not ending there you jump over to twitter shares twitter up about two tenths percent as it seems like that saga is continuing at least for now we jump over to the big dog apple off four dollars and twenty four cents that's more than a three percent drop and i always remind you folks 16.5 billion shares so what's that you're talking about 65 70 billion dollars in market cap wiped out just from yesterday's action it's a wild one folks stay vigilant keep your stops in place try and define that risk try and figure out what risk is acceptable to you and stick to it say two folks we got our man basil Chapman he's up next larry at 11 fast market steve rose day white tom o brian this afternoon have a great thursday everybody