Hi students, it's Shayna, your teacher from EspressoEnglish.net and the phrasal verb of the day is perk up. This is an interesting phrasal verb and you might not have encountered it before, but today you're going to find out what it means. Before I begin the lesson, I want to invite you into my phrasal verbs course, which is called phrasal verbs in conversation. I made this course in order to help you learn phrasal verbs in a more natural way. So some students try to learn phrasal verbs by just studying long lists of definitions. And that's okay, but I think it's more interesting, more fun, and more effective to learn phrasal verbs through real situations. So that's what my phrasal verbs in conversation course aims to do. If you'd like more information, then click on the link in the video description and you can see what's inside the phrasal verbs in conversation course. You can see a free sample lesson and you can sign up and start those lessons today if you want. So let's get to today's phrasal verb perk up. Here are the three possible definitions. Remember that only one is correct. And as I'm talking, I want you to think about which is the correct meaning and post your guess, post your answer A, B, or C in the comments to this video and then keep watching to find out if you're correct. Does perk up mean A, to become more cheerful or lively, B, to cooperate with someone, or C, to express strong gratitude? Let me describe the situation. Let's say you have a young daughter. She's three years old and one day you take your daughter out on a lot of errands. Erends are tasks that you do outside the house like going to the supermarket, the bank, and the post office, this kind of thing.  And so she's in the car and she's kind of tired and a little bit in a bad mood and she's saying that she's hungry. And then you say, hey, why don't we go to the toy store? And immediately she perks up and she starts talking about her toys and she starts asking if you can buy something at the toy store. She perked up when you mentioned the toy store. So what does it mean to perk up based on that situation? Does it mean A, to become more cheerful or lively, B, to cooperate with someone, or C, to express strong gratitude? What do you think? The correct answer, and I hope you got it from my description of this situation, is A, to become more cheerful and lively.  She will get happier, she'll get excited, more cheerful and livelier. Another example of perk up is a lot of people say that a cup of coffee can help them perk up in the morning. So if you're one of those people who wakes up and you don't have a lot of energy, then drinking coffee can help you perk up and become happier and more energetic, right? That's what lively means is to be more energetic. We also sometimes see the phrasal verb perk up used with other things that are not people when something makes a situation a little bit happier, a little bit livelier.  Maybe you just have gray and black and white, okay? Then you might want to add some red or some blue or some yellow paint to perk up the design, to make it a little bit happier, more cheerful and more lively. So that's another example of perk up in a situation where it's not involving people, it's something, in this case, a little bit of color making the room more lively.  So what does it mean for your ears to perk up? It doesn't mean that your ears are suddenly excited and jumping for joy, not literally anyway. Here's an example. Let's say you're in your office and nearby your boss is talking with another manager and you can hear their conversation but you're not really paying attention, you're focusing on your own work. And then your boss and this other manager start discussing promotions and talking about who's going to receive a promotion this year. Well then your ears would perk up. That means you would start becoming interested and start paying attention to that conversation about promotions because it's interesting to you and you want to know of course if you're one of the people who will get promoted. So if someone says their ears perked up it means they suddenly started becoming interested or suddenly started paying attention to something they were hearing, all right? I hope now you understand what it means to perk up and I'd love to see you use this phrasal verb in your own English. So try to post an example, post a sentence in the comments of a time when you perked up or someone else perked up or you could use it in the expression. My ears perked up when you suddenly heard something of interest to you. I'd love to see your sentences in the comments and again if you want to get a lot more practice with phrasal verbs then make sure you check out my phrasal verbs in conversation course because every single lesson also has practice exercises and actually inside the course you can send your sentences to me and I will check them and correct them to make sure that you're using all those phrasal verbs correctly. I hope you enjoyed today's daily phrasal verb lesson and I hope I'll see you in the next one. Bye-bye.


Welcome back to another edition of the Falcons audible presented by AT&T But this is a special pre-draft edition of the Falcons audible. I'm here with my guys Dave Archer and DJ Shockley I am of course Derek Rackley and we are gonna get into a lot of things that's gonna happen with the NFL draft Specifically for the Atlanta Falcons real quick before I let the guys talk because I know they're chomping at the bit It's been like three months that you guys had a chance to talk on this. Here's what we're gonna cover today We're gonna identify the key areas that the Falcons need to focus on in the draft at least what we think they are We're gonna actually talk about who the Falcons take at number eight our opinions once again We're gonna take a look back at Falcons free agency See where Atlanta tried to improve their roster get the guys take on where they feel like those guys potentially fit in To the 2022 action on the field and then we're gonna take a little dive into a sleeper pick somebody that may not be your Regular household name that Atlanta could pick up and maybe the third fourth fifth sixth seventh round that could potentially Impact the Falcons roster and their play on the field in 2022. So without further ado DJ. How are you man? DJ has not just been football he has been NASCAR He has been golf baseball basketball, you name it fun, but I'm glad to be back with y'all Arch how are you with your I mean we know you are in full mode here? He's got the binder. I feel ready to flip pages I thought I was trying to consolidate with my little my little notebook here Archer's got a whole binder with the whole entire league in it. I feel bad. Oh shock You know how it is. I you know you set a bar about five six years ago doing this and like Can I can I taper off for the people who can't see it is it is impressive Yeah, what's impressive to me and again, you can't see this is he's got the regular sheets of paper in the binder I don't know how you can flip pages without ripping them out I just don't have that finesse like when I turn the page. They just end up ripping out All right Arch step on the gun I'm gonna let you dive right into the three-ring binder right now as we talk about our quick reactions Not player position group. Okay, there's needs for the Falcons Position group you feel like Atlanta addresses with number eight in the first round. Yeah, I think we're needy guys There's no question about that. I think both of us are all three of us would agree with that But me when I begin to look at the numbers from last year your 29th in the league on defense You're 24th in the league on third down defense. You're 29th in the league on Red Zone defense I think you got to affect that side of the football. I want to I want to affect the defensive side So I'm looking defensive end. Yep I think that's no surprise anybody corner Yep would be number two for me And then if one of those really good offensive linemen fell then I would that's certainly something you consider But I like those two defensive groups suggested right away Yeah, definitely pass for us and getting after the quarterback sacks is something that has to improve next season DJ Where are you going position group? I mean it's hard to disagree with our chair because it's a need It's something that we all know has happened in 18 sacks last year last in the league That is a direct point to say we got to go get some guys We can get after quarterback and effective quarterback and then like I mentioned guys on the back end I know we sound a few guys here in free agency But you need that standout guy on the outside as well to go along with a J. Terrell. They didn't get the pass So I think both those positions will be absolutely Spotted I think Falcons fans will have to key in on these draft interestingly enough We have two quarterbacks on this side of the table that took snaps from offensive linemen That did not mention offensive line now I was not the defensive player However, I was a long snapper and tight end that spent many a times in meeting rooms with offensive linemen as well as tight ends And my position group is offensive line I just feel like if this offense is gonna score more points It has to be fixed in the trenches They've got to start adding more personnel that can beef up that position that can bring more productivity And this is a good year at the top of the draft for a few tackles again It all depends on how things shake out what ends up going on with draft day trades But I feel like if you got a guy like Marcus Mariota There's people that are mocking Malik Willis as a guy maybe a year or two down the road for Atlanta Or if it's a wide receiver Garrett Wilson of Jameson Williams Those guys cannot be effective unless the quarterback has time to get him the football So I believe offensive line is the position group that I need to start with I'm just saying I'm just saying your blood did spend a little bit of time there before I went to college All right, so let's dive into it a little bit more arch I'm gonna come back to you you mentioned that it's a needy roster That's true when you don't make the playoffs when you don't play up to the standard that you the coaching staff in the front office sets You have needs that need to be addressed in the offseason. This is one of the biggest times in the NFL draft So let's get into a little bit more of the needs you talked about pass rushing in corner But where else can Atlanta address in this draft? Not just day one throughout the entire draft to help them for next season Well, certainly wide receivers gonna come into play at some point I know another number of people have mocked Atlanta for a wide receiver in the first round And I could see why they would do that There's some good ones in this draft the thing that I love about the draft from a wide receiver standpoint Is there some really good ones day two? Maybe even day three that you could get that probably come in and immediately start here or one of the three receivers on this team So I think that it's a deep enough class where I'm not sure you have to squeeze a trigger that early on something like that But wide receiver Certainly immediately comes to mind for me as that need and then it would become offensive line for me Yeah, you obviously we've got the question marks with Calvin Ridley a couple of guys that have come in during free agency period DJ That maybe end up factoring into that wide receiver room But as we know the every position group grows between Signing people in the offseason then the draft and undrafted free agents a wide receiver room could end up having 13 guys In training camp that gets whittled down to five or six once you get to the active roster outside of wide receivers Where else do you think the team needs to address? I think we talked about earlier in that that secondary part of it where if you get a guy on the other side I know we signed Casey Hayes a outstanding player been around 10 years is gonna be tremendous For AJ trail on on that other side and bringing that experience and all But we talked about a few guys that could go with no rate or a few guys who can be in that top 15 Who are standout players in this draft who come in with that pedigree of there's some dogs They're gonna get after you they fit the same kind of mode as a AJ to real So I love the fact that you brought back a couple guys on the back end You still got some guys who are young in this secondary who you draft the last couple years But there's still another guy that I think if you combine them with Casey here You combine old AJ to real and you get one of those guys in the corner spot You're gonna be set up for a long time Especially in this league where you know, they want to throw the football we talked about artists Talked about the amount of receivers coming into this league the amount of receivers that are already in this league That are very dynamic if you got some guys on the outside that can cover and we know just like everybody else You play a lot of nickel and diamond in his league. So you need tons of corners who can play inside play outside And there's some of this drive that can do that Alright guys I'm gonna bounce this one back at you because we kind of talked about it a few minutes ago The fact that I'm sitting across the table from two quarterbacks. Alright, remember Matt Ryan The franchise quarterback was traded away the answer at least for now short term potentially has been Marcus Marietta Neither of you guys mentioned quarterback. Okay, I Want to know why and I'm sure some viewers and listeners also want to know why you're not targeting a quarterback right now He and I may feel very similar about this I think what you've done what Terry font know and Arthur Smith have done is they went out and got a guy That's got a chip on his shoulder Yeah, and I think you're gonna be able to look at guys like Carter coming off the edge or Evans or who are Casey Hayward These are guys that are not just trying to extend their careers People have kind of given up on them and I like your prove it deals right exactly and I think Marcus Marietta comes in here He's only 20 years old He didn't turn 29 till the middle of the season That's a young dude who was taken really early go back to learn So look at the first couple years of his of his career in Tennessee. He was solid if not Pro Bowl ask He was pretty good Injuries and some things got to him maybe a confidence scenario where he lost his job to Tanneill He's been backing up with the Raiders for the last two seasons. He's healthy. This dude's coming in with a chip on his shoulder I think he's gonna play really good football. I think we're in a solid spot there. Now is the future secure He could be the future. He's only 28 years old, right? But let him prove that he's not the future And sure you're gonna add maybe a guy or two Maybe a veteran out there before we get to training camp We know with Felipe Franks is coming back, but I think that this guy comes in with a Mode if I'm gonna prove that I just I deserve to be the guy here I should be one of the 32 guys that starts every Sunday, and I think he's gonna get it done I think it's a great point arch DJ. Sorry to interrupt you because he mentioned the word confidence, right? And I'm just wondering if you could put yourself in Marcus, Mariota's head You can say I used to play for this guy. Yeah, my former coach came and got me Yeah, you know what I'm saying like how much does that boost his confidence for him to come in granted The proof is in the pudding. He's got to put the production once he gets on the field But he's got to come into the saying this is my job The biggest thing that I take away from that. Yeah, you love the confidence But I think it's the maturity part of it as well that he even admitted During that time I wasn't doing the things that I should be doing to maximize my potential And then now I think it works both ways with Arthur Smith and Marcus Mariota is okay that first time It didn't work out the way they both wanted to work out But I think they both have learned from that situation and now Arthur Smith looks at it like, okay Now I know how to better prepare this guy going into this next season And he also mentioned, hey, I didn't go out and play my best football then and arch mentioned He's been backing up and for the radius for the last two years. This guy has He's learned a lot. He's matured during his time. He's already trying to find ways To have that bond with his teammates now getting with offensive line and trying to go out to eat Trying to figure out these guys But now like he mentioned, there's a chip on this guy's shoulder to prove to people that he is still that top quarterback That he was when he first got to Tennessee So this marriage I think is going to be a little bit different because they both have learned Okay, here's some different couple ways that we can Expand the things that he can do well and now we've come into a situation that he wants to prove it Even more and you guys say second chances the nfl is known for second chances at the quarterback position thinking about Alex Smith, Jared golf, even a guy like Ryan Fitzpatrick.  I just wanted to hear from our quarterbacks as to why quarterback was not a little bit more of a discussion I think it's a great explanation before we wrap this up dj. Let's make this another quick hitter We talked about the needs. I want you to rank the needs So one two one two three one two three four whatever it is In your opinion rank the needs that Atlanta needs to address in this draft I think the needs are one two on the defense side of the ball getting to the pack getting to the quarterback of pass Russia is number one and For one thing I want people to clarify or understand is when we say pass We're not to think about just a defensive end We talked about a guy like an outside linebacker who can put his hand in the ground and absolutely rush to pass her But also be a guy who can stand up and be an off the ball kind of defender So a pass rusher can be an outside linebacker or somebody who can put their hand in the dirt Pass pass rusher is absolute number one for me. I think it has to be I mean number two has to be the secondary All right pass rush secondary. How about you arch? I'm I'm walking in lockstep with him It's pass. It's it's a defensive end. It's corner and it's wide receiver. Got it All right, and if anybody's curious about mine mine's offensive line and pass rush So we are both we all of us are pretty much addressing the lines of scrimmage What you have to be strong in the nfl if you're gonna find success This episode in part brought to you by the home depot Everything you need for your next home improvement project is just a tap away on the home depot app The home depot app digital toolbox gives you access to how-to guides project calculators and image search So you'll know exactly what you need to pick up with the tap of the finger You can rent and reserve the right tools for the job Also browse through millions of items from top brands that you can have delivered right to your door Whatever your project find exactly what you need with the home depot app Download the home depot app today All right, we're going to dive into actual selections. All right, this is the um falcons audible presented by at&t You are now on the clock Dave archer. We need your selection Who are you picking at number eight in the 2022? Why you make that face? Why you make that face? Well, it This is going to be one of those hedge type. This is where you're put completely in the microscope, right? Okay, I think three edge rushers are going to come off the board before atlanta gets to pick and I think because of that The top rank corner is going to be sitting there and I'm going a little I'm going to put a little sauce I'm going sauce gardener at six three 190 a guy that loves to play physical He's an up in your face guy He could play both zone and bump and run man to man Watch this guy tackle. He's got a little nastiness about him But he's got great size got tremendous ball skills in his three years at since that eight interceptions He's a guy that's taking it to the house on interceptions. This is a guy that would be a great compliment No funds to k.c. Hayward. I think hayward will come in here be a great veteran influence on anybody that's in that room But I think you got those you got a j terrell and sauce gardener side by side one another I like the way that looks. Yeah, I don't think you have to apologize to anybody You get somebody like uh sauce gardener That's like your future out on the outside is a pillar and I mentioned this back a few months ago I got a chance to call the Cincinnati smu game Which was like late in the season right smu came into Cincinnati was ranked That was one of the teams that could potentially knock off Cincinnati So I start reading in preparation for the game and all I'm seeing is about a sauce gardener doesn't give up a touchdown Sauce gardener this that and the other I started watching tape on it And I was like this dude is for real And then just watch his assent and his name going to be called in the first round of the nfl draft To back up what you just said 159 coverage snaps Zero touchdowns given up. There you go. Is that a guy you'd like to have on your roster? All right, dj you are now on the clock.  I mean it's He's unbelievable. Sorry go ahead rex. Sorry. No, okay, so we're gonna try it again. All right, so that is Dave Archer has sauce gardener going to the Atlanta Falcons now It's your turn who is going to the Atlanta Falcons at number eight in a 2022 nfl draft It's tough because I've waffled Back and forth with this pick and one of them is an offensive guy one of the defensive guy And because of what my man Dave Archer just said three are going to be gone from that defensive end spot And I think we have talked and stressed that we need somebody to rush the passer Why not go get the ACC defensive player the year who had 12 sacks 22 targets for loss this year Transfer from georgia couldn't get on the field comes to florida state and dominates in germain johnson I mean he would be an unbelievable pick I think right there eight and brings immediate impact to that off to that defensive line and gives you so much versatility I mean this guy has a quick first step. It does an awesome job of getting off. I mean he plays the run really well There's not many things that you can dislike about this guy So I would love to see him in this red and black iron man guy too It's a great selection by shock former dog that got his opportunity as shock said down at florida state 12 sacks This year iron man too 60 snaps a game he played at florida state. He wasn't coming off the field He stayed out there and played not only does that show that he is an every down player But it shows what the nfl wants to see Durability a guy that's going to be on the field because one of those high draft picks that spends his career in a training room Doesn't really get you any better as a football team if anybody's curious my selection at number eight I'm looking at right icky equanu from nc state. I told you i'm addressing the offensive line This now here's what I will tell you this from from some of the stuff that I got a chance to watch on him He's probably stronger as a run blocker. He's probably stronger interior right now He played out on the on the perimeter as a tack I think he's a little bit rough right now to contribute But in atlanta he doesn't necessarily have to contribute that tackle right now He could just focus on being a great interior offensive lineman Set the tone be that guy that helps move the line of scrimmage And then if later on in his career, he's shown the ability that he can be a great pass protector Then maybe you slide him out to the edge But right now I think he is one guy that helped solve a little bit of that issue on the interior of the offensive line I gave it a guy that you could plug in from day one and he's going to bring you some nastiness This guy likes to drive people down the field. He doesn't just go one or two yards He is literally going to stay with you until the whistle blows. Maybe even a little back Exactly right Just to back up what you're saying 476 throw attempts for nc state. He gave up three sacks all year long So he may be a little further along than people are giving credit for but what sticks out when you watch it Is he loves to mash people? He's a nasty dude.  You got you got a sneak to get one yard.  Iquani I'll call him that if he wants me to have the quarterback sneak. Let's just say he wears number 64 I'm going behind him. Okay. I'm going behind him. So there's a few players That we feel like could end up impacting the Atlanta Falcons day one after the first day of the nfl draft All right, let's take a little bit of a step sideways not backwards and talk some about the free agency editions I don't want to I don't want to minimize the importance of those guys as we know that free agency started about a month and a half ago Atlanta didn't necessarily make any huge splashes But dj, let me start with you a guy that atlanta either signed from a new team or Resigned from the current team because I will tell you this that terry fontano said some of your best free agent acquisitions Are guys that are currently in your building You know, they fit the fabric of your culture and you keep them in that jersey So which ones do you feel like one? Maybe two guys help move the meter on the free agency side You know, I think we've talked about them already a couple times and I love the fact you bring over kasey Hey, we're the team your vet in this league who's seen it who's done it who's been around a lot of different defensive schemes And now he gets a chance to to kind of mentor one of the top guys I think we all believe in the national football league and aj terrell So I love the fact you bring in his experience on that back end Along with aj terrell along with some of these other guys who are trying to find themselves in the national football league You got a richie grant who is trying to find his way Here's a guy who's been around some of the top safeties in the league He's just you know, coming from over to charge when they got a really nice safety over there that he can teach you Hey, this is some of the stuff this guy did in game that allows him to be successful I love the fact you bring in a guy of his caliber who is I think a character guy inside the locker room But also would teach these guys so much on the field as well as off the field Yeah, maybe that's one of the areas that that atlanta has missed on the secondary is that veteran presence That can help mentor guys because you think about just a few years before terrell was there They got the keanu kneels the ricardo allen's like that would have been that veteran mentorship That could have really taken his career to the next level. It's a good point Maybe haywords the guy that ends up doing that not to mention that not to say that's his only role Or atlanta he's going to go out there and compete for a starting position But he can also help the team in the secondary in the same breath. Dave. How about you? What free agency acquisition you like? Yeah, I'm looking at three guys to me And I talked about the chip on the shoulder and that's what I love what terry font know and arthur smith have done Is they've gone and got guys that aren't necessarily trying to extend their careers They've got they're going to get guys that maybe didn't quite get their shake wherever they were But they've got a chip on their shoulder to say I belong in this league and I belong at the highest possible level It starts with marcus mariotta I think that that's an outstanding hire at the at the quarterback position I think demir bird is another guy that has speed to catch the rock was in chicago knows this system He's going to come in immediately fit in and play. He's got some speed and he's a guy that really Kind of in the mix of kind of getting caught up in numbers He might have an opportunity here to step into the stardom and my number one guy is lorenzo carter How about the number about bringing the dog back home? He's excited as he can be to be back in georgia He's going to come off the edge. We need edge pressure I think look for lorenzo carter to be a pretty good addition Yeah, carter was his classic example of somebody that did not throw up great numbers at his previous stop But he's got the ability everybody's talking about his ability and if he gets in the right position The right system that he could take off I mean it could be a guy that pushes close to double digit sacks, which I mean would you say that they had last year 18 18 double digit from one guy would be pretty pretty nice So they talked about a couple of new faces I'm just going to mention to me what I thought were a couple of guys that are sticking around were great moves No, how about young waco? I mean the guy that was probably the most automatic player Special teams player Special teams player here Okay, y'all weren't laughing at all the points he scored for Atlanta last year though We were just saying that all right and then quarter arrow Patterson I mean we talked about this one at the end of the season guys and it was like We felt it was a no-brainer.  He's not the one that's going to be non-committal Because he wants to go out in the market and he wants to see if he can get an extra 5 10 15 million from somebody else He said I know what my value is here I know what this last season did for my career and I want to start something special So to me you talk about two guys that were maybe the most consistent all season for Atlanta last year Are coming back in their jerseys and hopefully you bring some compliment pieces around them So it can be even better. So there's that's a good call There's a look right there at some free agency acquisitions and guys staying around that we felt like we're good moves from this franchise All right last topic before we let you guys go It's going to be that sleeper pick Everyone in nfl circles will tell you the guys that you draft Layton rounds even undrafted guys that come in and make an impact kind of define your tenure Especially in the front office, right? If you're terry fontano, you find a guy in a sixth round that comes in and he starts and he ends up being a pro bowler You dominated the draft right because sure the value that you got so maybe not sixth round, dave But let me start with you not necessarily a household name Who's somebody that you like that could come in and make an impact? Well, there's the first guy that comes to mind for me is a guy out of western kentucky named de angelo malone And I don't know if you know about him Maybe you do if you've been doing your research you'd probably do and know about him This is a guy that's probably a late day Day two pick so he's probably going to go in the first three rounds But probably in the third round somewhere 59 tackles for loss 32 and a half sacks Eight force fumbles. He's an outside linebacker like shock was talking about that edge rush may not come from a defensive end It may come from a guy You're talking about like a linebacker steps up that you'd get in that second third fourth round That could come off the edge of specialized pass order six four 240 you'll have to work on some of his abilities against some of these tackles in this league But I think this guy could be a diamond in the rough could you could fall into You know avon miller type player that could come off the edge that's used to getting to the quarterback 32 and a half sacks in his five years at western kentucky, you know And the interesting part about guys like that too is is a lot of times number one They're not instantly rich meaning that they're done having to worry about money for the rest Like sometimes these nfl players draft in the first round like their lives pretty much set, right? So he knows he still has to grind it every day He knows he's likely going to have to play on special teams But he also knows i'm one injury away from getting on defense and earning a starting position, right? And so those are the guys we talked about chip on our shoulder the one year contract Prove it guys Maybe your mid-rounders are also like you know what I thought I should have been a second rounder And I got drafted in the fifth round Well, I'm going to go show them that i'm a second round player with my play on the field So it's a great great. You're right. Great. That's it. DJ. Who do you got? So i'm gonna jump into a conference that arch knows really well I mean he's well versed in all conferences. We know that but this conference here I know that he knows and i'm going to parry on winfield from uh, Oklahoma He has to tackle yep six four two nine he ran a four eight And i'm gonna be honest I didn't see much of him during the season just didn't watch a lot of oklahoma But I started watching him at the senior bowl and he started to stick out for me Ended up being a senior bowl mbp. He's got an 86 inch wingspan Which if he gets drafted with the third longest wingspan in NFL history That's pretty cool. They had to be that long But this is a guy that that you can look and put his finger in the dirt Is a tough physical guy can get up field and really be a master on the inside guys We always talk about getting edge rushed on the outside. How about pushing the middle of the pocket We don't hate from the middle of the pocket to be collapsed on this He's one of those type of guys I think it'd be that kind of guy whether he goes third four fifth round We don't know but he's one of those guys I think that you got to keep your eye on it He could be a a big physical guy on that inside that can help you The interesting thing is is I always kind of make this joke and and and I think it's true But you know, I would say big 12 where defense is optional Because there's always so many sports, you know points scored But you still see a lot of really good individual players that come out of the big 12 And they end up making a huge impact and maybe win free is one of those guys I know you're right. The defense has improved and hopefully it will for in oklahoma Hopefully it will in oklahoma with venables being there now Defense will not be optional with him at the helm. I'm going to talk about one more guy That's probably going to end up being a third or fourth round pick So he's not necessarily a sleeper, but we're going back to Cincinnati and I'm going to go with wide receiver alec pierce This guy is six three Okay, ran a four four one at the combine and he jumped 40 and a half in the vertical So what that tells me six three, but you put him down in the red zone He's got that ability to go up over the top and make those 50 50 catches and come down and score points So and it's not just like he's a possession receiver He's still got the speed to get downhill and be able to take the top off of defense But he's not necessarily one of those guys you're thinking is going to be your number one or two He might be a three or four, but he could still be a really effective three or four So we've already talked about sauce gardener and alec pierce. We haven't even mentioned desmond ridder We didn't even get to a quarterback conversation. That's three really good players that are coming out of Cincinnati Sanders the edge player absolutely.  They got disrespected the whole time in college Uh, so that's all that we got here.  We threw out some topics some positions groups some pics Christmas is coming baby. It's on Thursday. That's it. All right. Just a couple of quick notes We will be back on thursday night We'll give you a quick Kind of summary of the who the atlanta ended up with in day one Maybe it ends up being two guys. You just never know what happens on draft night. Okay So we'll be back after the first round and give you our thoughts on how atlanta did on day one of the draft But also check out the falcons final whistle as they will give you coverage to give you their thoughts On how everything shakes out for the atlanta falcons in day one of the nfl draft That's going to do it fellas. Great to see you guys once again. Let's do it again in a few nights All right, and we enjoyed you coming back to be with us is Continue to pull us up on all the different avenues that you get your podcast apple iTunes spotify youtube atlanta falcons.com or wherever you can find us We appreciate it and come back and find us for more on thursday night. That's going to do it for dj. Shockley. Dave Archer I'm derrick wrackley. Take care. This is the atlanta falcons audible presented by atnt


When you first become homeless you kind of figure oh well you kind of still are going through a little bit of shock like I can go home but then every time you think I can go home then you don't have a home to go to. Thimby stands for tiny house in my backyard. Thimby started off as a sustainable tiny house composition where group of students entered and it was really just around the sustainability part of it. Now we moved into more of our social justice issue so we work with the city of Richmond and a couple other NGOs to build the same sustainable tiny houses but as transitional housing for homeless folks. And so we partnered with GRIP which is Greater Richmond Interfaith Program. They're a transitional homeless self-shelter and while we were in talks with them about getting help placing tiny houses that we are going to build ourselves we met Constance who is staying at GRIP at their shelter. After five minutes we knew that we were gonna be working with her. Constance used to be a bus driver but unfortunately broke her back and was unable to continue her work but because she had this old Graham bus from her bus driving days we have decided that that's what we're gonna help her remodel as our first project. Constance had been trying to get Kathleen from GRIP to help her build out her bus which is totally not the protocol for them to transition people out of homelessness into tiny bus house buses. The bus thing you know just didn't click for me initially but after some time went by we started finding ourselves getting more creative than you could ever know about trying to find a place for people to live. The bus thing started to take on a whole different kind of thought process. GRIP was our third shelter and this is the only place that really heard me when I was talking about I wanted to fix up my bus. A lot of people were telling me that it's not realistic and I just wanted to say people are laying on the street if it's not realistic then why is this happening? Constance is a force to be reckoned with. She's just one of the most inspiring people I've ever met.  You can't use your hands. I have two children Miracle and David. I feel like they cope pretty well except for when I don't cope well. One day I was just crying out loud and I'm at a place that they got to be with you.   If they have to regroup and say no because I don't want her to think like that. I'm not fulfilling what I supposed to be doing for them and I can't help it. The first step is cleaning out the tiny house which we actually just did for our first volunteer day. We had students come. We cleared out all of her old items, cleaned out any trash and got it all nice and ready to start the actual remodel and then from there we're going to be doing campaign fundraising through a GoFundMe reaching out doing grants and then we'll be putting the flooring as the next step and we'll begin actual construction. It's going to require installing solar panels, putting in proper beds, putting in a new shower, toilets so it's going to be a completely standalone tiny house in this bus. We were already working with the City of Richmond trying to figure out a way to build tiny houses for the homeless and finding a lot of issues with finding places to put them and that's always the hardest thing. We've got land right across the street. It belongs to the City of Richmond. The problem with that encampment for the City of Richmond is it's a liability for the city to have people living on their property but you know my thought is give the land to us. So I'm in a pursuit give me that land for $1 and then once we buy it then it is that we can explore what is some of the feasibility of what can go on that low plot of land over there where these people have a place to live. The goal is to create a sustainable program that houses a lot of people for a low budget and can be replicated out of places. We have been working with GRIP and with the City of Richmond on creating a program that continually builds tiny houses and places them for the homeless. The City of Richmond has a carpentry training program called Richmond Build where they continuously train union carpenters and it's a 10-week program. They build multiple structures as part of their training and they're always building these structures and just tearing them down and so we're gonna partner with them and they're going to do all the rough builds of the tiny houses and then our student volunteer teams are going to finish them out with the electrical plumbing and furnishings and then GRIP they're going to place the houses on private properties that they're in communication with and they're gonna fill them with their clients that they transition out of homelessness. This is something people can get motivated and excited about because it opens up the door as another idea of hope for other people. I'm not under the delusion that like what we're doing is gonna save the world or solve homelessness. There's a lot of fundamental issues that need to be addressed but tiny houses are really good like intermittent solution where you can build them really fast and really cheap and get people sheltered while you're waiting for more housing to get put in. I have family history with homelessness and it just feels good being part of a solution rather than just like complaining about it even if even if you're only helping like an inch of an entire mile at least if everyone did an inch then you'd make it to mile. This is the beginning of something bigger than one person getting their bus fix. It's a problem that can be solved.


There are three points I think that I would like to summarize here in terms of how to break the cycle first is We really need to look at the underlying drivers and local context in term of Determining how we should manage the fire. Yes, so there is no one size fits all formula in my mind Secondly, I think the clarity of who pay the cost and how is needed for effective fire management due to land uses for example in the case of tropical heat fire The third one I think linking this with the payment for ecosystem services scheme in terms of incentive mechanism, etc will be one effective Vehicle towards breaking the cycle of climate change and wildfires Let's take Indonesia for example because Indonesia is the country with the largest tropical heat mine area in the world so that Regard and fire that has happened in these areas really actually produce a lot of Produce significant carbon emission and also cause hazardous impacts over the years Including transponder is smoke and haze It it comes with huge cost Actually And the prevention can be done in terms of changing the means of land clearing to zero burning Yeah, and also avoiding fuel availability by maintaining the wetness of the vegetation and pit On pit land this can be done by blocking canals to keep the water table high enough and prohibiting the building of new canals There are policies that been land clearing without burning However for smallholder farmers often complying with such policy is not feasible since burning is the cheapest way to prepare their farms that they can afford Therefore a system approach that address rural livelihood in finding solutions To pit fire prevention needs to be in place So in a recent paper that I co-authored we showed that farmers can still generate a higher profit in clearing their land Their land without fire if they can apply good agricultural practices Programs and government policies that can facilitate good agricultural practices in conjunction with zero burning policy Can increase the effectiveness Also partners with partnership between large-scale Landholders and farmers in applying mechanized land preparation can also be an alternative The other way is that a management practice that combines trees with other many species that is a agroforestry system can help maintain soil humidity and Micro temperature and therefore can be promoted as smallholder farming system Which then can be linked as well to payment for ecosystem services


Well, it's a pleasure being with you all here today and thank you for coming out at 10 in the morning I can't believe it. There's music this evening. So we disambiguated and they put me at 10 in the morning, but that's good Let me just start by saying jumping in and saying I'm I usually talk about Syria But enough of Syria. We're gonna do great power rivalry in the Middle East This is what everybody is talking about certainly in the CIA and everything else Recruiter for the Defense Intelligence Agency an old student of mine came to University of Oklahoma He said tell all your students not to say Middle East say great power rivalry So I'm glad to say to announce to you that I am on the cutting edge Now here just last week Bill Burns the head of the CIA Gave a talk about great power rivalry in the Middle East and he said it is a world in which the US is no longer the only big kid on the geopolitical block The weight of the hedging middle is growing and that's what I'm going to talk to you about today is the hedging Middle and in particular Saudi Arabia and the UAE which are the two big Economic powers in the Middle East and traditional allies of the United States and how they have begun to move towards China And out of the US's orbit These countries he said see little benefit and lots of risk in monogamous geopolitical relationships and His use of the word monogamous was well chosen because there are few Saudi Commentators who've used this sort of tongue-in-cheek about the polygamist relationship that Saudi Arabia is now searching for Although they love the United States They're looking for other partners as well and they say this a little bit to mock America I guess because we're constantly criticizing them for polygamy. So it but he used that word I think very specifically because it's been used quite a bit in the newspapers Now, let's be just give you a big picture of a relative Decline for the United States the United States is still the biggest economy in the world It's by far the biggest military as we know, but relative decline Meaning that we're not in decline But the rest of the world is growing so rapidly that in relationship to the rest of the world We are in decline and we look at this, you know, you can see that 1960 The US had 40% of global GDP Phenomenon is 50% after World War two because of course Europe and everybody else was on their knees and that has gone down You know fortunately, it's only 24% which is still pretty damn good But as you can see the rest of the world is screaming up and China is growing Tremendously and we're going to get into that Here is another graph to help you visualize this change in relative power. The United States is by far still the biggest economy in total output in both trade Manufacturers and services services are very important because that's what China doesn't have so much We have banking we have entertainment if you think of all the movies and everything you we have we have tons of services that the rest of the world doesn't provide where we dominate but in terms of Manufacturing and so forth China is going to be is screened ahead. You can see with it manufacturing China two trillion dollars or 20% of world industrial output The United States is only 18% the next Japan 10% Germany 700 billion which is like 7% and it goes down from there pretty rapidly but in terms of You can see where and I'm going to Saudi Arabia is here and UAE and Qatar are right here So that's our Middle East and Israel of course is big as well That's the Middle East region That we're talking about which is not a giant share of world power But they're middling powers that will that have been very closely aligned with the United States and dominated by US trade until recently here is if We take the same stuff, but we put it in Purchasing power parody what they call is it an exchange rate if you use an exchange rate between a dollar and foreign currencies Based on what you could buy the same basket of goods then China comes up much more strongly because the Chinese currency is Weak compared to the dollar they've kept it low, but it can buy a lot in China So that's another measure and here you see China moving ahead and both the EU and the United States coming down and The Middle East region is pretty It's not doing well. The Middle East by and large Saudi Arabia and the Gulf are doing very well They're growing at breakneck pace, but kind of like Iraq Syria Iran So forth have not been doing well and and that's what brings their numbers down So we're just going to talk about These two countries here is a picture of NBC and MBS Muhammad bin Zayed is The leader of the United Arab Emirates. He's older. He's been on the pot longer and And here's a Saudi Crown Prince and B.S. Muhammad bin Salman His father is still the king, but he's very aged and infirm So it's really since 2017 it's been MBS who came to the pot about at the age of 30 is now 37 he as a dominant power very full of himself in many ways according to America and But the Saudi youth and Saudis love him. He's changed Saudi dramatically From concentrating the Wahhabi religion and he got rid of he's given women the right to drive and the right to work and Have their own passports and so forth Movie theaters have been opened. He's really opened up Saudi society and he looks to and yes Really The UAE has been doing When our and I just spent a week in the UAE over spring break in March and I went to talk to an Israeli It was an organization run by an Israeli Russian, but it was to Russian businessmen. There were about a hundred Very wealthy Russian businessmen who were moving their families and their businesses to the United Arab Emirates the United Arab Emirates is the number one destination for new businesses and for World, it's the easiest world trade you can get a golden visa for ten years You don't pay taxes there are Minimal taxes for businesses to move to UAE and it's been growing at you know seven percent a year It just everywhere. We look their cranes All the schools are most of schools are in English. So even UAE kids Speak in English. We talked to a few Dignitaries there who were there to speak the Russians and they said my kids now speak English at home With friends and so forth half in English half in Arabic He said it's very disconcerting to have your kids lose their culture but if we want to be competitive, this is what we have to do and When aren't I went out with a Syrian friend who's runs a business a building business building supply business We started a restaurant and the kids in front of the restaurant playing on the beach were Different from different Nationalities and they were all speaking together in English. It was really something. It was really extraordinary We asked our Syrian friend who this building supply where he gets his stuff from he said a hundred percent from China everything nothing from the United States so That's a little anecdotal beginning to this Let's look first at the UAE because It is set the model for the region Muhammad bin Zayed Rejected Biden's invitation to come to Washington earlier this year When Biden was in Saudi Arabia, he made an announcement He didn't want Mvz to get hurt feelings and he said please come to Washington Mvz has not gone to Washington has not responded to his thing. He's been upset with the United States and Has been moving his relations or expanding relations with both Russia and China in a sense to try to To try to reassure his country Because he feels the United States has not stood up for the UAE Both against Iran and against scuds that came from Yemen But were where Iran was behind them that were launched both in 2019 and just 2022 into the UAE because the UAE had joined with Saudi Arabia in attacking the Houthis in Yemen and so Yemen tried to hit back and punish them by sending these missiles that had gotten from Iran into both countries and And the UAE looked to the United States to do something about it and the US didn't do anything about it First under Trump, but then under Biden and so that upset them tremendously But the Emirati peak with Washington began under Obama earlier once President Obama Came up with his nuclear deal with Iran in 2015 16 It was done behind the backs of both Saudi Arabia and And The UAE and they felt that Obama was really abandoning them and was saying, you know You're gonna have to work this out yourselves, and we're not gonna choose between the two of you We're gonna keep a balance of power, and we don't want to have to go to war Against Iran that was the pressing issue for the United States. We don't have to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities Because those are the guarantees we've given to Israel we've promised Israel that if Iran gets close to developing a bomb we will bomb we will stop them from doing it and Obama thought We got to stop them from doing this and then we have to make a deal because otherwise we'll be on the hook for doing military action and He didn't like Iraq or Afghanistan was trying to get us out of these places. Last thing you want to do is get us further into the Middle East so that's the background for Obama's doing this deal with Iran and Both, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates felt very badly about this Obama also called the Emirati's free riders on America's Defense dollar Then he became a drone attacks Under Trump and Biden and which the America did very little technology restrictions are another Problem for the UAE The United States has a treaty or has an agreement with Israel for a qualitative military edge that No combination of Arab countries should be able to Attack Israel that Israel should be able to defeat any number of Arab nations and that means not selling Arab nations fancy equipment that he has given to Israel and That of course upsets them And they are as it drives them towards China and Russia to get missile technology and so forth President Trump Under the Abraham Accords Which he negotiated and the UAE was the first in spirit of the Abraham Accords UAE signed up for the Abraham Accords under Trump because it wanted F-35s those are fancy jets that are you know that radar escaping and so forth and Normally we said no but Trump said yes if you sign peace with Israel and he worked it out with Israel when Biden came along and with Congressional pressure they stopped the sale and Of these arms and so which has caused it hasn't caused the UAE to turn away from Israel Israel UAE is working with Israel There were tons of Israeli businessmen who would already move their businesses to the UAE when I was there And I talked to a bunch of Israeli Russians who were saying that they're also bringing Israelis because it's Good tax shelter. You can trade with everybody. You don't have the Israeli imprint which which Stumbles trades as part of the Middle East and so Israelis are moving also and the UAE is continuing that relationship Although it got upset with the United States for not carrying through with this arms deal So the UAE is turned to French fighters UAE fighters that is looking at it hasn't it's bought some but it's really It's looking for this next tier of technology because it wants to be at the top And that for that it's turned towards China And they're they're worried about their economic growth So let's look at a few numbers for the UAE The UAE is the Arab world's number two largest economy It's growing at 7.6 percent this year and has been growing at break-up pace for a number of years It will double the size of its economy by 2031 now It's only a nation of 10 million people and 8 million of those people are Foreign nationals who work there Indians and oh from all over the world Young enterprising people are moving to the UAE in droves as we said we went out to dinner with our Syrian friend during the Syrian Civil War every really Well-educated Syrian tried to get to the UAE To start a business to be a doctor to whatever the same thing happened in Iraq once America invaded and their country fell apart All the upper middle class tries to get to the Gulf and the UAE has been very accommodating So they've got tons of Palestinians. They tons of Iranians 10% of their businessmen are Iranians who left after the Iranian Revolution Have gone to UAE. So the UAE has really been able to cannibalize all of The upper middle class in the Middle East particularly to the countries where America has laid waste to the economists So it's been a very profitable, but it means you have people who are angry at America in the country as well The UAE is China's second largest Economic partner in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia bilateral trade between the US and the UAE 23 billion roughly China's 75 billion So it's three times larger It's projected to hit 200 billion by 2030. There have been tons of trade missions back and forth and they're trying to Anyway, 6,000 Chinese businesses operate in the UAE and many of them have their headquarters in UAE for the Middle East because it's such a It's such a good place to do business so you can see 20 years ago the United States trade dominated the UAE and Saudi Arabia today, it's China trade and That of course it sets a foundation. We don't even have to believe in Marx to realize that the economy is what drives things Okay, this is a bit overcrowded here high technology for the UAE if we just go and look at a few things The UAE Began to the China began to build a port In the UAE and a military Military base in the UAE America got furious made them stop it about two years ago But just this year they discovered that the base is once again active and China is building things And Despite Emirati assurances to the contrary the US detected renew activity in building of People's Liberation Army Logistic site on this base there seem to be moving ahead The Emirates rejected US and treaties To close China's telecoms giant Huawei This has been the major struggle with a lot of Eric countries is they want to go Huawei It's much cheaper to get their 5G the trouble is America sees it really is a stalking horse for Chinese intelligence and military power because it allows America believes that it allows China to listen in on all these conversations and also to spy on American bases So with increased activity with China Space exploration which both the UAE and Saudi are getting in with with China to send up rockets and satellite systems for the UAE There's a lot of sharing of intelligence with China so America which has been working closely with both these countries as a center for their defensive agreements in the Middle East are getting tons of intelligence from America and We believe they're just you know They're sharing with China either intentionally or unintentionally because China is beginning to develop all this communications network in both kingdoms Growing partnership between intelligence agencies is a serious challenge to the US China and the UAE agreed to cooperate on a rover for lunar South Pole exploration so both countries Saudi Arabia and UAE are very interested in space exploration and rocketry and missiles and China offers them that technology the United States has refused to give them any of that technology So they're going elsewhere because they can Why wouldn't they? so that's America's gonna have a hard time dealing with them during the Cold War if you think of Nasser others we could smush them If they wandered away and tried to become non-aligned people like Tito and Cuba and Egypt We could really come down on like a ton of bricks today It's not clear that we can do that because they really have alternatives and our military power We can't just overthrow countries We could overthrow the Iranian regime in 1953, which we did for three million dollars It was the great triumph of the CIA Today we've been trying to overthrow the Iranian regime for decades. We've spent trill you know millions of dollars on this Convincing other countries not to trade with them to follow our sanctions all this sort of thing has cost us a lot of money And we can't do it. We haven't been successful. So it just shows you the relative power of those two periods Not only that but the UAE has been busting sanctions on Russia You know they're letting all these people in I mentioned to a friend who works in a national security council Just a few weeks ago. I went down and talked to the head of the Middle East guy and gulf person and He said when I told him what I've been to the UAE and talk to us. Oh, you're helping bus sanctions You know, that's what does on their mind is the way that the UAE has been has been cooperating For example, the value of electronic parts shipped from the UAE to Russia increased by a factor of seven fold from 2021 to 2022 so once sanctions were placed on Russia they began getting all their chips through the UAE and A load of Iranian drones was shipped to the UAE and then Tranship to Russia. So UAE has been helping Russia in all kinds of ways fight this war because it sees it as this is an opportunity this is business and Okay, let me switch and touch on Saudi Arabia for a few minutes before we close here President Trump doubled down on the relationship The traditional good relationship with Saudi Arabia as we know his son-in-law Spearheaded this effort and it was a very simple exchange To get Abraham accords going if Israel would help if if Saudi Arabia would help Israel With its Palestinian problem the United States Would Trump would stop the Iran deal nuclear deal, which he called the worst deal ever and he did He also moved the embassy to Jerusalem. He Recognized the Golan Heights were Israeli and so forth and this and the Saudis said nothing they helped Smooth over this recognition of what had really become de facto reality in the Middle East and the Saudis went along with it because they thought America was going to come down on Iran hard and squeeze them and break them And that was a basis of this plan and much of the Gulf Leadership of the Gulf country believes that Palestinians are never going to get a state This is a finished problem sort of like the Mexican-American war where you finally have to say You know, Texas and New Mexico are never going to go back and let's get over it and that was the basis for this Then came up cake Iran struck Saudi's biggest refinery oil refinery 50% roughly 50% of its oil refinery was stopped for about a week because it's missiles and Hit this big refinery Saudi Arabia immediately looked to President Trump To do something about it President Trump threw up his hand and said we'll sell you more Patriot missiles and other things that didn't work to stop these but we can help you build up your technology So you can and said he was furious They wanted America to strike Iran and to send a message that we're defending United Saudi Arabia They're a key partner and and we didn't do it Then in the presidential race President Biden Took on Saudi Arabia because he saw it as the baby of Trump So in order to try to run against Trump. He immediately called MBS a pariah said he would treat Saudi Arabia as a pariah now we have to remember this is just after the killing of The Saudi journalist who was also American citizen Khashoggi and So America had turned in the Democratic Party had really turned against Saudi Arabia So he played to his base. He said we're going to treat Saudi Arabia as a pariah And I won't sell them any more arms. Etc. Etc. We're going to stop the Yemeni War Which America had supported Saudi Arabia in the UAE and that and of course as soon as he became president He had to reverse course on that and go back for the famous visit and the fist Pump with with MBS because Saudi Arabia is important We can't turn our backs on Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia is the key engine To OPEC it exports more oil than any other country it exports It produces the same amount of oil as Saudi Arabia as Russia America has surpassed it. Saudi Arabia is about 10 million barrels a day. The United States is 12 million barrels a day, but Because it's a small country in terms of population it exports 7 million barrels of oil a day and that means it can flood the market or restrict it and it's the head of OPEC and a US relationship with Saudi Arabia has been built on being able to influence Saudi production and Saudi has usually changed its production levels According to the wishes of the United States president. It's not always there's always a negotiation But the basic change has been security for Saudi Arabia and you give us You know cheapish oil and we'll work out our relationship with you on supply of oil and presidents generally ask for more production of oil before elections Brings down the price of oil Brings down inflation everything runs smoothly and the Saudis do this For the beauty of America. I think I think I had arms and the other other goodies in exchange for that Biden Asked Saudi Arabia to do just that Just before mid-term elections remember inflation was at 10% and the Republicans were beating up on a Biden So he said look it help us bring down inflation bring down oil prices before the elections That'll help me and we'll help you The Saudi said no We're not going to do it. They rate in fact they reduced because they were worried that China Economy was slowing the world economy is slowing there were that prices would fall and Saudi Arabia Digested the opposite of what America wanted and of course it's working closely with Russia Russia is now at you know, they call it OPEC plus Russia is a part of OPEC and Negotiates with Russia to keep supply and prices at it at a good what they consider to be the optimal Price America can't do that Even though we're the biggest supplier Because we don't have a state controlled oil system because we have a capitalist system. It's always boom and bust All of those wells in Texas in Oklahoma the government can't control how much they're taking out of the ground So they take out of the ground expand expand expand until the price collapses And then everybody goes bankrupt and they get thrown out of their jobs in Oklahoma and Texas And they have to wait a decade for it to come back and then they get back in but they cannot Manage it because it's a free market system. The rest of the world doesn't have a free market system and they can manage it All right, I get a little off track here But so Saudi Arabia and American relations went from bad to worse Over this period and they're pretty bad now, but Saudi Arabia has choices. It feels like it has choices and This led to China coming up with a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Understanding that America was not going to bomb Iran and that sanctions weren't working Began to look Began to try to balance to hedge against a possible Iranian War or Iranian further attacks at uptake or if Israel were to bomb Iran Iran has promised that it would attack Saudi Arabia first because that's the weak link Saudi Arabia can't really defend itself so well and To drive up oil prices. So it's an effort to scare America Into not allowing Israel to bomb Iran's nuclear plants because Iran is that we are going to close the straits of Hormuz and we will disrupt oil exports through the Persian Gulf and That will drive price of oil through the roof 200 300 percent and it will crash the American economy and so we'll screw you if you screw us That's the basic idea, but Saudi Arabia is at this is the vulnerable partner here So Saudi Arabia doesn't want that to happen So it needs to make peace with Iran because America isn't going to bomb Iran and Defend it So China swept in and China has very close relations with Iran has been the major power that has been Until recently as it has gone along with American sanctions on Iran But in the last year and two it's begun to take more Iran and help Iran get it out if you remember a Few years ago the number two of Huawei The daughter of the CEO of Huawei who is the chief financial officer was arrested in Canada America asked her to be arrested and delivered to the United States. Why because she was breaking sanctions on Iran She had helped develop shell companies for Huawei and was building out Iran's 5g network And America said you couldn't do that China said yes, we can because you're you cannot tell us who to sanction So Trump asked for her to be arrested when she was transiting Canada on a flight and Canada did it because they're nice to America and then China immediately arrested two or three major Chinese Canadian businessmen in China and held them hostage said you you if you don't let go of this CFO we won't let go of you and shot finally Canada let him go, but that's a kind of That's a kind of arm twisting that America's done for the sanctions on Iran And they weren't working, you know, China began to push back and China then began to take oil Say screw you. We're gonna take oil from Iran. So that's been So China had good offices with Iran and good offices with Saudi Arabia And it wanted peace between these two sides because it wants to trade And so it negotiated a peace agreement Between Iran and Saudi Arabia that was announced just you know Earlier this year and it flummoxed Washington the whole world began to go. Oh wow China has arrived as a peacemaker in the Middle East and Many Arabs were saying well America's a war maker in the Middle East But China's the peacemaker and it was a bad look for the United States US immediately said no, we're very happy with this piece We were the ones who really started it with negotiations in Iraq and blah blah blah But of course having China swoop in and get the get the big photo op was not a was not a good thing It's important to mention in the middle for MBS Vision 2030 his new plan for Building Saudi Arabia in his future is key to how he thinks about all this and why he is moving towards China and Russia and Leaving this monogamous relationship the United States and that's because He's worried that Saudi Arabia is just tied to petrochemicals that once they run out Saudi Arabia left back in the desert. So he's trying to change Saudi's economy to be a modern economy diversified from oil and gas In order to do that. He needs trade and he's really copying MBS Mbz except excuse me in UAE. He wants that kind of dynamic International economy with tourism so he's open Saudi up to tourism. He's said that the Saudi Airlines It's going to be as big as the Emirati Airlines And we're going to be the real entrepreneur and tourist hub of this entire region He is told Chinese businesses and other foreign businesses that are Centered in the UAE that if they want to trade with Saudi Arabia, they're gonna have to move their offices to Saudi Arabia so He's taking on and this has increased tensions With Mbz with the Emirates, but he's looking to that same model instead of the Wahhabi model of Conservative Islam He's really broken away from that and said that's yesterday.  I mean it's good for the United States is good for the world that he's adopted this kind of vision of a future futuristic more equality between women and men Getting Saudi integrated into the world not being the sort of hermit kingdom and and allowing people to come in and out now of course It's meant centralizing power around himself and he's thrown many people into jail and shaking them down He's let people know he's become much more dictatorial and much more like other Middle Eastern autocracies if you will but He's extremely popular in Saudi Arabia and part of his popularity comes from the fact that he's sticking America in the eye every once in a while and and he's let Biden and others know that they can't dictate to the Saudi Arabia anymore Let's just look at popular polls there have been a number of popular of polls For opinions of Arab point of view and there was a series done in young Arabs under the age of 29 One repoll poll reported that 80% of young Arabs viewed China as an ally and the US ranked number seven Russia is regarded as a top off top ally by 70% of young people 50% of young Arabs regard the US as an enemy Rather than an ally according to a BBC poll of young people In another poll people in five different countries including the UAE Egypt and Jordan all very close allies the United States Express greater confidence in Russia than in the United States Many accused the US and the EU of a double standards they said They pointed to you know very proactive response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine Whereas they say when Israel has taken Jerusalem or the Golan Heights and Exeter taken much of the West Bank The United States does nothing so for its allies. It's willing to Close its eyes to the rule-based order of the world that it's constantly talking about but for its enemies. It doesn't and many Arabs Argued that the invasion of Ukraine is no worse than US invasion of Iraq Okay The US now I've painted this picture of US decline in the Middle East, but let's correct that a little bit The US remains the dominant military power in the Middle East and military supplier of choice There are 30 US bases in the narrow Middle East. This is not including Pakistan and so forth And about 30,000 troops in the Middle East today, which has been drawn down considerably there about four years ago There were 60,000 the US share of the regional arms market has increased from 47 percent in 2010-14 to 54 percent more recently the cost of Okay, and then you can contrast that with the the amount of money America has spent on military in the Middle East over the last 20 years since the war on terror the US has spent According to this Costs of war project by Brown University has spent eight trillion dollars in Afghanistan Iraq Syria other places and there have been 900,000 deaths now. That's not just deaths from shooting. That's deaths from collateral from The destruction of medical provisions lack of food They you know so when Iraq fell apart and was in the middle of civil war. This is the Actuarial tables of the population of Iraq and what it should have been and what it hasn't been so It's exaggerating America's Direct responsibility for all this but it's trying to get a beyond just who was shot And that of course has produced a great deal of resentment In the Middle East in a sense that it that's underlying those popular polls where people are blaming the United States China's military in the Middle East is really Not there. They have a base in Djibouti just at the Horn with you can see it. Yemen is just across the way. Here's Yemen Djibouti and this is the Russian base that they're building here That's one of eight Russian bases in the world as opposed to almost 700 American bases And here's the American base. There's a Japanese base and a French base right next to it But so they're both watching over this and China does it to police the pilots that are stopping It's trade that's going through the Red Sea and up into the Mediterranean But another thing that's worth Talking about is that Six Arab countries have become Dialogue partners and are trying to join the Shanghai cooperation organization. That is China's answer to NATO if you will it's about defensive cooperation in mostly in Central Asia, but also moving through Asia and Many Middle Eastern countries have signed up to join that Iran is signed up to join it. Russia is a member. So America sees this as a As this counterbalance And they're all joining they want to join China and get The high technology that they can get so let's turn to conclusions here US partners in the Middle East are no longer satisfied With Washington's attempts to create exclusive US-led blocks. They're seeking alternatives and to diversify their partners China is the dominant economic power in the Middle East today China's foreign policy tends to be friendlier to authoritarian regimes if you think of in the war against Ukraine Russia and Ukraine America has Acastas as democracies versus autocracies and has tried to line up the democracies of the world against the autocracies and For the Middle Eastern countries all of which are autocracies It's pretty easy to see which side you should be lined up on because maybe you'll be sanctioned next and The Biden threat to treat Saudi Arabia as a pariah Sent, you know a shiver of anxiety Through the Gulf thinking maybe we could be sanctioned. Maybe we could be on that bad side of the ledger So China doesn't ask questions in its diplomacy. It's like the United States used to be in the 1950s When Britain was the colonial power in the Middle East Britain was going Suez. It was trying to overturn the Iranian government It was it was playing the tough guy trying to keep its military bases and the United States Could just trade free trade. It didn't have a military presence in the Middle East and everybody loved the United States That was the age in which partly the age in which I grew up in the Middle East where my father opened the first U.S. Bank of Saudi Arabia in 1958 and And Jeddah and he never had a bad loan in his four years in Saudi Arabia because he It was the whole world like the United States because we were not a colonial power And in a way China is like that today and America has become more like Great Britain after World War two A risk a retreating power that's trying to hold on to its military position in the Middle East China's foreign policy tends to be friendlier. Yes US history of wars in the region has turned public opinion against the US US's lower profile the Middle East You can argue has been good good for diplomacy good for peacemaking The peace with Iran has come from the fact that America Has withdrawn a bit and said we're not going to go to war against Iran for you therefore Saudi Arabia has to find another way and that means a Painful dialogue for itself and to make compromises and as compromises have come with Now peace negotiations for Yemen are much closer than they've ever been because Iran and Saudi Arabia are sitting down together to talk about it Syria Has just been brought back into the Arab League much to America should win But led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE who say we're not going to win against Iran in Syria We can't fight that war Even though America would like us to continue fighting in Syria. We're not going to do that because we need economic growth and if Saudi Arabia is to reach its 2030 plan of Rapid economic growth. It can't have scuds coming in from Yemen. It can't have disruptions It needs tourism. It needs to be secure and safe place for businesses and That's a positive future and you can say that America's retreat from the Middle East is allowing some of this There can be less wars and more diplomacy and on that note I Will end talk so thank you very much All right, that was that was about 40 minutes. We've got about 15 minutes for some questions and so forth Human rights take the high most I think you're absolutely right multipolar system Means that you're constantly in competition and if America takes its human rights Agenda like it did Biden during the election cycle accusing Saudi Arabia of being a human rights offender for killing Khashoggi He couldn't make good on that. He needed that relationship much more and Saudi Arabia showed that it was willing to churn to China and so forth and especially after the invasion of Ukraine where we needed our allies to line up with us and to Not help Saudi and not help Russia escape from sanctions and oil and so forth. We couldn't We couldn't move ahead on those human rights Demands Yeah It is Like Yes, I think it is that's obviously a worry because There are a hundred ways to get Advanced technology now and Israel has you know Israel is a partner with America on all the missile systems and so forth so The Abraham Accords of course, it's very leaky, but Israel for a long time has been working with China on missile technology You know for the last 20 years America has been very worried about that and constantly reminding them not to do too much China was going to build the port of Haifa about four years ago had put in the winning bid and and Israel was had moved ahead to Allow China to build America said you can't do it because we've got a port. We've got military Place right next door Israel back down. So Israel has stayed away from Huawei Jordan also an American ally just chose the finish Finish Telephone company to help it build its system and was going to go why would America put pressure on so Those are negotiations that are constantly going on, but you're right Israel and the UAE and Saudi Arabia are beginning to work particularly UAE are being to work closely on that kind of technology particularly missile missile technology which and getting so You know that is a way that technology gets to but Turkey Turkey just signed a 50 billion dollar deal with Saudi Arabia For drones and other high technology Turkey is a big center of military Arms advanced arms industry. They're building their own jet fighter now They're trying to and so more and more companies who want to get onto that Gravy train and especially missile technology to put up their own satellite systems so that they can have an independent Intelligence that's not totally dependent on the United States And so they're reaching to all the countries that do that Yeah Yeah, huh sounds like an amazing Complex chess game with kings and queens and bitches and knights and poems and I wonder you know chess is accessible to artificial intelligence Computers have been designed that can basically win any chess game Do you think any of the major players have our working artificial intelligence models of all this and sort of Figuring out what might happen. What's the best move this next move? Absolutely, you know war games Washington is constantly asking all these the Middle Eastern experts to come and play these war games and You know, it's very hard to know what people are really going to do But when we play war games against Iran Iran wins They stop the oil and things go bad sideways very quickly and which is one of the things that convinced us to convinced Obama to try to do this Nuclear deal with Iran so Yes, all this intelligence is being used all the time. I don't know if it's really convincing America It's hard for America to give up this notion of being you know being this the supreme power and Every one of our presidents runs every four years Claiming America is the greatest country in the world And I'm going to keep it the greatest country and that's one of the number one things that every American wants to hear Unfortunately, I think that's that's driving us to bankruptcy Because we've already spent a hundred and twenty billion dollars on Ukraine. We're gonna spend a lot more than that so that That eight trillion we just spent on the war on terror It's not stopping and we're at thirty two trillion dollars worth of debt and we're adding, you know, almost a trillion a year now So it is and if we keep on fighting these wars It leads us into but Americans like it. I don't know why I I don't know if Americans like it I think that's one of the reasons that Trump was actually popular because he said these forever wars and he said Iraq is the is the Harvard of Jihadism and that George Bush did that he criticized his own party terribly and I think Americans like that But the foreign policy establishment has become quite divorced From the everyday American who wants to spend money on schools on roads and other things don't want to spend money But for some reason Washington likes to spend money abroad. Yeah Here and then That's No Well, but we do Well, the trouble is you're right in theory. We don't but we have a lot of losers like Iraq or Syria We didn't set out to make them losers but once we realized we couldn't Turn them into the pro-American democracies we wanted We we've left them Broken If we take Syria as an example Where the Iranians and Russians that's sort of a one in Syria our special envoy to Syria our last special envoy We don't have them right now to Syria said Ambassador James Jeffery said my job is to turn Syria into a quagmire for Russia And you're wrong Which means if we can't have it We're gonna have it broken because we're not gonna let them have it. They're not gonna win this war They're not gonna win the peace for example, and and I think America does that not a lot But America punishes its enemies and it's done it more recently Than in the past and I think up until fairly recently America was a Generous country that helped to Marshall plan help with point for money in the Middle East helped lots of developing countries but more recently there's been a lot more military action and and But it's bad. It's bad for democracy, you know sanctions on Iran have brought The average GDP in Iran have halved it in about 10 years That's can't be good for democracy it it's good for weakening Iran and Punishing it, but it's not good for democracy because you do one of the only things we know about democracy promotion is that a lot higher per capita GDP helps in sticking democracy I don't know that I I think I have I would say most of the time America does try to help people develop it, but not all the time UAE yes United Arab Emirates Problems with climate change and making war in other words making war and preparing for war and building the instruments of war is quite devastating to is using fossil fuels and is accelerating our crisis which we're feeling here in Vermont now and So Why is it that there isn't a connection made between Issues of climate change and preparing for war you know I Just quoted Burns head of CIA and his speech that he makes about this the last half it is about climate change and about the need for America to Reorient its priorities But I think it's very hard to do that. It's very hard to do that because Americans are stuck on being the leader and we're fearful that without America you know a friend of mine and when I talked about what I was going to talk about said but You don't really want You know what what's a world going to be like? When America is not the leader and that anxiety of losing control Over international events is is a powerful anxiety I think because it there is a worry that a world where China and Russia are Balances the United States is going to be a more dangerous world. There's a world that we don't like and It keeps you know that does keep us from focusing on their priorities, which is no doubt about it Interpreted in talking about climate change as being a major factor in the amount of fossil fuel 22 gallons per minute That are as true in our in our skies by these planes in Burlington airport is really Should it is really important and is a negative factor to us coming up to speed with the goals of Well, you know that brings up the whole question of sort of corruption of the political process and the amount of The industrial military complex and if you look at the top think tanks, you know, I say it's just a study done recently over 50% of the funding for most of these think tanks comes from big arms companies and Which is perhaps one of the reasons why the foreign policy? Community is a little bit divorced from what the average American is worried about and keeps us, you know Engaged so many bases around You know, I don't know the answer to your question, but it's clear that United States isn't even though we can recognize The danger global warming we aren't putting the priorities and we aren't spending the money on it that we should be we're spending it in places like the military which is Which is big and you know, I was just looking at numbers for Oklahoma the other day of Oklahoma for every dollar of Oklahoma gives to Washington for the federal government it gets two dollars and One of those of course social security is atop and so forth But number three our veteran benefits That are gobbling up that our tax dollars Because there are so many veterans who've retired in Oklahoma. It's a cheap state and it gives a lot of military people Has a lot of bases and and that's a number three Consumer those tax dollars is just veteran affairs and health for veterans all the benefits that veterans get so It does consume the money In very odd ways when you put it that way Yes, I think also it's a it's a priority issue specifically with the military they Prioritize winning whatever that means about everything else It's like during World War two when they knew what was going on with the Holocaust They knew there were millions of Jews being killed, but they said don't bother us with that. We got to win Right well winning winning is important for everybody. We have a winning culture Yes, one more question Well, you know India has been coming up in the United States Blinken who just went To Saudi Arabia and so forth. He tried to present what he calls you to something too. It's it's United States and the United Arab Emirates It's you to I to and Israel and India and so he was Promoting and claiming that India in a sense could could Be with the United States and compete with China in the Middle East That Israel and India and the United States with the UAE could be this sort of virtuous competitors to the China effort to so The United States is selling India big today. The question is Is India really going to line up with the United States? And that there's a lot of debate over whether India is the kind of Democratic partner that America really is looking for whether they can Do what China has done You know, I went on just an anecdote on that I went to a trip to China not too long ago And I was doing the Great Wall thing and then the little micro bus with this Indian fellow a pilot Sitting next to me. And so I asked him. How do you you know? What do you make of China and its development compared to India?  We can't do this. We can't because everybody's yelling at each other and it were to Democracy is not working is what he was saying and and so he was admiring this dictatorship now, I don't know I don't want to sit here and have my ending words be Incomium for dictatorship, but obviously India has a lot of a lot of difficulties in It's coming up strong But whether it can do what China is doing is another question and there are a lot of countries that are trying to compete with it but America is looking to India for that counterbalance to China and In his defensive agreements economic agreements and so forth. So India will clearly be a very major player in the future How it stacks up against China's too early to say thank you all for coming