Welcome to the podcast that takes apart Paul Krugman's New York Times column. Join us as Tom Woods and Bob Murphy teach economics by uncovering and dissecting the arrows of Krugman. Nobel Prize winner, newspaper columnist and destroyer of nations. It's time for Contra Krugman. Welcome, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Tom Woods. This is Bob Murphy. And this is episode 87 of Contra Krugman, live here in Seattle. As Betsy mentioned, Bob and I do this every week. We release an episode of Contra Krugman every week. We review one of the two New York Times columns that Krugman has released that week and we critique it. We search and search for something to find wrong in that column and then we teach economics by doing so. There are a few inside jokes in the podcast that will be understood by people who've been listening to a number of them. So if some people laugh at something and you're not following it, I don't know, what's our advice in that situation? Just laugh and pretend that you get the joke. Laugh and pretend that you get the joke. Listen to the podcast more often, which you can do at ContraKrugman.com. This episode being number 87, the show notes page is ContraKrugman.com slash 87. It's not up yet. It will be by the time this is being heard by our normal audience, but you folks are hearing it as we're recording it. So what we're doing this time is we're actually zipping through three of his columns just to give you a sense of what we do. So because some of his columns will cover just one topic, we want to cover a multitude of topics. So we're going to zip through three of them and they'll all be linked at that particular page. The first one is from May 8 and it's called Republicans Party Like It's 1984. It's my job here on the show. Bob graciously allows me to talk once in a while on the show and what I get to do is summarize the columns. So I'm going to give you really brief summaries. Like these are executive summaries like you're on your way to being executed and you have three seconds. That's how much of a summary I'm going to give you because we have three of them to do. So this one is from May 8, just not too long ago, a couple of weeks ago. And what the gist of this is that the Republicans, according to Krugman, more or less can't ever be trusted. All right, well, so far so good. But what he's arguing is that we got a whole lot of bluster about Obamacare. We need to repeal it. We're going to have this tremendous replacement. It's going to be wonderful and do all these great things.  He says, look, this thing breaks every promise the Republicans ever made about health. Deductibles are going to rise, not fall. Premiums may fall for a handful of young, healthy, affluent people, but they're going to rise for everybody else. They're going to be cutbacks for all sorts of vulnerable people. And this is exactly what they want to do. This is how Republicans are. They want to take health insurance away from people. I mean, he puts it quite that way, by the way, in a couple of these columns we're going to be talking about. This is what they naturally thrive on, which is taking away things from vulnerable people. And he says that according to independent estimates of an earlier version of Trump care, people with incomes over a million dollars will save an average of more than $50,000 a year. And there's a good chunk of GOPers for whom that's all they care about, is these folks at the top. So this is the style of the typical Krugman column. It goes after the GOP, says that they're only in it for the wealthy and they just want to hurt vulnerable people. So he says, I personally think that Donald Trump gets some positive pleasure out of people who made the mistake of trusting him for a ride. And he says, look, this is a freedom is slavery ignorance is strength moment. What we were presented for health care is positively or well. So the first column is to argue that the Republicans may have talked an awful lot about all the flaws of Obamacare, but then they turn around and give us something that is horrific and awful and in no way an improvement. Then secondly, May 12, 2017, Judas, I like how we're not getting too over the top here, Judas is trotted out. Judas tax cuts and the great betrayal. And he means Judas is a bad thing just to clarify. He's using Judas as a bet. And he's saying, and basically Judas here, we decided Judas was Mitch McConnell, more or less. And the argument in this column is that surely there are Republicans who know that Trump is probably in some way compromised by the Russians, but they are willing to overlook this because Trump is going to deliver them their greatest wish, which of course, what is a Republicans greatest wish? Taking health care away from vulnerable people. So as long as Trump is going to take health care away from vulnerable people, they'll look the other way about the Russia stuff. And so that's why McConnell is Judas. He's prepared to betray everybody. He's prepared to look the other way and betray everybody if he can just get what his heart truly desires, which is taking people's health care away. Now, you think, Woods, you must be summarizing this in a tendentious way. Nobody argues that way. Either you don't listen to Contra Krugman or you don't read his columns. Now, if you don't read his columns, you have a happier life. If you don't listen to Contra Krugman, it's sadder. I'm telling you, it's sadder. We have a fun podcast. What can I tell you? So Krugman generously says, look, we don't know for sure that top Trump officials and maybe even Trump himself are Russian puppets. We don't know that for sure. However, you know, wink, wink, he says. But you know what? This is typical of conservatives because after all, look at the America firsters from the 1930s. They loved foreign dictators just like Trump loves a foreign dictator. So this is typical of Republicans. There's nothing unusual about this. They're just reverting to form. Okay, that's two columns. The third one we're going to share with you today is the May 15th column, The Priming of Mr. Donald Trump. And here we have Krugman saying, isn't it ridiculous Donald Trump thinks he invented the term priming the pump to refer to the economy? Well, what Trump actually did was he gave an interview to The Economist magazine. And he said, we've got to cut taxes because we want to prime the pump. And Bob's going to talk a bit about that when we get to it. But Krugman, as most people took that to mean, because Trump then said, asked the reporter, are you familiar with this term, this use of this term? Because I wasn't and, you know, I made it up the other day and I rather like it. And people took this to mean, boy, this guy thinks he invented the term priming the pump. So we're going to talk about that. But anyway, the typical way that phrase is used is we need more government spending pumped into the economy to get the thing going. And Krugman spends the column explaining what that's all about and why it can be useful to do that. But what he's arguing now and what he indeed argued a few months ago was that, yes, even though Krugman for years has been calling for deficit spending, for years, bigger deficits. We need bigger deficits. All of a sudden in 2017, you'll never guess, now is the time to keep an eye on the deficit. All of a sudden we got to watch spending. That happened in 2017. We got to watch spending. He says, because things are totally different now from when I was talking about why we need to increase spending. Things are totally different, he says. And he goes through and gives you all these reasons that things are different now. They're so much different than they were like three months earlier when I was telling you we needed the opposite. So we're going to go through exactly what's allegedly different. We did do this, by the way, we devoted all of episode 69 of Contra Krugman to exactly that. To how different are things from the five minutes ago when he was saying we need to increase spending. And it turns out these indicators were exactly the same then as they are now. The one difference seems to be there's a guy with an R next to his name in the White House now and suddenly we got to be careful about deficits. So he is willing to say I would accept deficits if it's in exchange for more infrastructure. That he's fine with, he says, but really what does Trump want deficits for just so he could give tax cuts to his rich friends? Now you think, Woods, okay I listened to your summaries and this is all just like boilerplate. This sounds like a speech from the Democratic Party Convention from 1984. Like how could you possibly get any economic knowledge out of this? You can't. What you can do though is by teaching the opposite of everything he just said you can in fact convey some economic knowledge and Bob I am now going to place the burden of that task upon your shoulders.  I don't really want them anymore. And now Bob I am going to let you start us off. Why don't we start off with the claim that premiums, health premiums would fall for maybe a handful of people if Obamacare were replaced. A handful of people. Right, so let me just read these. So Krugman's got this rhetorical style when he's talking about health care to try to minimize and just show the disparate impact. So he can't just say there's literally no single person in the United States who would benefit from this Republican plan. And I should say as a caveat because I know we have some people here who have never heard the podcast because Krugman holds up here. We don't even have to engage in hyperbole. He's literally calling the Republicans Judas. So this is the way he talks. So when we're criticizing him it comes off sometimes like we're defending the Republicans and it's not that so much. It's just more that we're saying no these claims are hyperbolic and let's look at this more accurately. So by no means should any of this come off like we're all in favor of the health reform that was coming out of D.C. lately. But we're just trying to show how misleading a lot of Krugman's claims are. So for example he says premiums may fall for a handful of young healthy affluent people but will rise in many cases. So he's using the term handful there when in fact this is obviously millions of people that the original Affordable Care Act the very nature of it was to sort of put everyone into comparable pools to make it illegal for health insurance companies to discriminate according to pre-existing conditions. It did things like say the spread between premiums on people based on age can only be a factor of three. So take two otherwise equivalent people but one person 70 the other person 22 then the health insurers under the Affordable Care Act could charge no more than three times the premium which is artificial you know that was a much narrower band that had been the case before. So obviously if you undo that well then now it's not that the young and healthy are implicitly subsidizing the older and the people with pre-existing conditions. So again just the rhetorical trick there of Krugman saying premiums may fall for a handful of people. Let me give you another example of what I mean here. So later in the same column he says according to independent estimates of an earlier version of Trump care people with incomes over one million dollars would save an average of more than $50,000 a year. Okay so he's Krugman's trying to show the despair like to say who are the winners and the losers and that's all he says about the fact that there are a large tax cuts involved with the Republican plan because again remember the Affordable Care Act came with huge tax increases that was partly how they were going to contain the impact on the deficit from all this you know new subsidies. So of course if you undo that well then that's going to be a huge tax cut. So let me just give you an example of how slippery Krugman can be. So if you and I should say what I've learned doing this podcast I thought in the beginning that you know to show the contrast of what Krugman's numbers are with more realistic ones you would have to go to like the Cato Institute or Heritage. No all you need to do typically is click the link and then see how it's the exact opposite of the way Krugman summarized it. So for this one just for example and I'll just give you these numbers time to turn back over to you. It's what Krugman said is true okay you can go to the link and you can find the table that he was talking about here but let me give you some more facts. So coming away from that you would think that oh yeah this is just for rich people. This table so it's from who is this from? It's from the Urban Institute. They did a tax assessment not of the most recent one that passed in the House but the original one that didn't get through but you know the grand scheme they're comparable. And so yes it is true they put a little thing in there saying for households that earn more than a million dollars a year on average they will save fifty thousand dollars on their tax bill and that is a shocking statistic but if you think about why what's driving that well it's because the Affordable Care Act included things like a 3.8 percent surtax on net investment income. Okay so clearly that kind of a tax is explicitly designed to help upper income people and so once you unroll that well then obviously it's going to help upper income people okay. But far be it's not true to say this is just for the upper crust for example if you add up all the people whose taxes go down it's fifty four point nine percent of all households right that's more than half. I know there's Austrians the crowd don't like mathematical economics but I'm just like fifty four point nine percent is more than half the country and yet from reading you know crewman's summer you would have thought it's just the upper crust and then the other thing I'll end on this time the group you know they haven't broken out in income categories the household group based on income who gets the highest percentage tax cut under the Republican plan that was in this thing are people who make less than ten thousand dollars a year that they get a four point eight percent income tax cut because of some you know premium tax credit that's part of the Republican plan. Okay so it's more than half the country gets their taxes cut and the biggest chunk in terms of percentage of income going down because the Republican goes to the poorest people and yet the way crewman summarized all the information that chart was to say oh yeah people making more than million dollars a year say more than fifty thousand this is crazy that's why Judas or no this this one they compared to Orwell it was 1984 Judas is next I got mixed up sorry. Can't keep track of all your all the wildly exaggerated language that he uses I want to read to you from my phone here the text just a paragraph or two from an interview I did with a physician maybe a year and a half ago it's a doctor Josh Umber who he and his father ran together for governor and lieutenant governor of Kansas on the Libertarian Party ticket and you know when we talk about health care half the time we're arguing these wonkish policy plans and a lot of us would like to just see a genuine free market in health care just physicians and patients and that's it but it's hard to imagine what that would look like because we have such a distorted market we have so much government involvement we have an artificial encouragement of the of health insurance in general because of tax privileges and so on and so it's hard for us to imagine what life would look like in the absence of this well doctor Umber is a great example of what it would look like because he's more or less trying to operate as if there were no government or insurance he runs his practice it's called its atlas dot md he runs his practice like a membership service where you pay a monthly fee and you get everything he offers as part of that monthly fee whatever you need and so I want to read this is this is real this is happening right now this is this is doctor Umber speaking to me he says it's a flat rate per month based on age just like a gym membership for that membership you get unlimited home visits work visits office visits technology visits like email cell phone texting twitter facebook skype basically whatever we want because now we're not limited to what insurance will allow or pay for this is generally by the way fifty dollars a month fifty dollars a month he says then we have two days in our office any procedure we can do in the office is included free of charge because that's what the membership is covering just like any equipment in the gym is included at the base membership price so stitches biopsies joint injections ultrasounds bone scans lung scans urine testing strep throat testing minor surgical procedures all included for free then one more paragraph he says then something else we can do that makes us very unique and valuable is wholesale medications labs imaging and pathology had a perfect example recently we ordered some blood work we have our negotiated cash discounts of usually ninety five percent and a patient's blood work was accidentally billed through the insurance rate because because of a computer mistake at the lab the price they were quoted was one thousand twenty eight dollars we ran that back through our system and it costs thirty nine dollars and it's an amazing opportunity so anyway so then he says up we can do the same things with medications week we out compete the wall marks the cbs the targets of the world because we have a different business model we can dispense medications in Kansas just like a pharmacist forty four states allow physicians to function like this so I can order the medications wholesale from the same place as the pharmacies do but I can get a thousand blood pressure pills for eight dollars and thirty three cents even after my ten percent markup they're under a penny a pill Walmart would literally have to give them away to out compete us and if they do great we still win it's not a value that's of that's a revenue generator for us we're simply adding to the value of our membership it's very cost-go-esque you're gonna want to read this entire interview because it's stunning alright that that sounds like it's from Mars right that doesn't sound like anything that we're accustomed to and yet it's going on right now so I am going to invite you to do something Bob's gonna roll his eyes but let him roll them it's my turn okay I thought you're gonna say it was your show no contrary it's a fifty percent share yeah that almost slipped out just now didn't it if you got a smart phone I'm gonna send you I just wrote an e-book on health care it's called your Facebook friends are wrong about health care I was so happy with that title all you gotta do is to you're gonna text a word to a number the number is three three four four four and I'll send you this awesome thing including that interview to the number three three four four four just text as all one word health care text health care is all one word three three four before you get that e-book now if you're saying to me if you're out there you're saying woods I don't have a smart phone and I'm feeling very very left out and depressed at this moment what can you do for me I bought the domain name your friends are wrong dot com you can also get the book there how was that available where's the creativity in America anymore how was I able to buy that for ten smackers all right anyway so get that you'll really enjoy Bob let's talk about are you done selling stuff I'm selling something that's free I might add that's even worse that's a good one all right don't cost you nothing all right let's talk about Judas and Russia right now in that column all right so Bob maybe you want to say a little something but just interest doesn't matter but the whole the whole Russia thing I personally think is a bit overblown that doesn't mean I'm the world's biggest fan of Donald Trump obviously but the creepy people who are behind the scenes here give me the willies even more than he does but that's my my personal opinion is that they are more sinister than he is but yeah yeah yeah say I mean but I'm just gonna say there's I've talked to a lot of people about this and Bob I mean we've for the most part we're just spectators this we're reading the news like anybody and I'm still waiting to hear what the big horrible thing is I'm supposed to be worried about right so again this is another area where you know it's certainly it's not that you know Tom and I checked that out and actually Russia had nothing to do with the election it's all good you know how could we know we wouldn't I can't prove a negative but the point is for somebody like Krugman in particular let me just walk through how dubious this story is or how tenuous his position because for those of you who've been listening to the show or reading Krugman's columns you know that he was absolutely furious with Comey when he came out you know shortly before the election and understandably so Hillary was Krugman's candidate what Comey did was kind of shocking and then especially since then they retracted it a few days later and said oh actually okay no there's nothing here go ahead get everyone going votes fine so I get why Krugman would have been furious and then you know when then Hillary loses of course and so that was Krugman's refrain right it's not that Hillary Clinton it couldn't possibly be that she lost the election fair and square they're had to be cheating and so in many columns and blog posts that whenever Krugman would talk about the latest you know outrage from the Trump administration he would say thanks Comey right and so that was like his sort of snarky way of saying look good job Comey you through the election okay so again in Krugman's mind you know is this guy Comey somebody who's trustworthy an upstanding public servant no this is a guy who through the election clearly you know he must have known that there was nothing there and yet for some reason he did something having to know how much they would throw the election so in Krugman's mind this guy Comey clearly you know is a bad apple all right I don't know to be fair I don't know that Krugman ever said that he should resign or he should be fired certainly many Democrats did say that stuff before okay now of course all of a sudden Krugman's repeating just matter of factly all the things we know about what happened for example we just know that Trump told Comey you know it'd be great if you could just let this thing with Flynn go away you know I'm paraphrasing but you guys have all heard that the thing that's coming from this memo and so let me just make sure you get the timeline of what happened here so as of like let's say January Krugman would have been saying thanks Comey for you know throwing the election complete dereliction of duty Flynn actually resigned on February 13th this meeting in which Trump allegedly told Comey hey can you back off Flynn happened the next day February 14th okay so make sure you realize the timeline here even according even if this everything is true that Comey's talking about in these this memo that he just supposedly wrote up it's not that Flynn was still safely in his job and Trump was kind of contained thing Flynn everything had already blown up and Flynn had to resign and that's the day afterwards so again it's not clear you know even if this did happen it could be the Trump just meant the guys careers rule he's going to go down in history as a Russian spy basically can you at least stop investigating the guy it's again we don't know but that's the context it's not that he was trying to prevent people from learning the truth the guy had already resigned the day before Comey says nothing about this you know all through it and the senator says to him I'm slightly paraphrasing but this is close said you know hypothetically speaking if the attorney general or senior officials at the department of justice were to lean on the FBI and say they wanted you to drop a pending investigation could they do that and Comey says theoretically yes and the senator comes back and says has that ever happened in your experience and Comey says no not my experience that would clearly you know cause a lot of things if they interfered with an investigation like that so again it's possible that Comey was you know thinking no strictly speaking he asked me about the attorney general and you know department justice officials not the president himself but that would have been a good time to say by the way Trump actually did you know obstruct justice a few months ago but he Comey didn't say anything in response to those questions and the only time he this comes out is after he gets fired you know I'm just saying it's weird that this guy who Krugman was vilifying as you know this corrupt guy who's through the election now after he gets fired this stuff comes out that arguably he misled senators under testimony or under oath to say there was no nobody from the you know executive branch leaning on me or higher levels to drop this investigation so I'll turn it back to you Tom all right yeah something needs to be said about a highly highly unfashionable group that is targeted by the U.S. and that's what I'm talking about a big friend oh no I don't know I don't even I don't want to see them ever again actually but thank you for thanks for the option it's it's the America First Committee now nobody nobody likes them today because they were on the wrong side of history didn't they know that in a World War II needed to be needed to be fought in the way that it was fought now a lot of the America First Committee didn't have one but that that was more or less their view now then of course after the attack on Pearl Harbor America First closed its doors the very next day well Krugman says in the column that many he uses the word many of their most prominent members openly supported foreign dictators by which of course he would mean Hitler so I did what Bob has taught me because I'm really in a Bob's my mentor I mean really there's nobody on earth who knows Krugman better than Bob and who knows Krugman's tactics so Bob always told me whenever Krugman makes a claim and he uses a link to link you to the evidence for the claim click the link because he's bluffing half the time he doesn't think you're going to click the link you click it and as Bob will show as shown half the time the link says the opposite of what Krugman says so I did it this time I clicked the link where in episode 87 he's finally taking my advice so I clicked through who are these many people from the America First committee despite the fact the America First committee openly and expressly said you're not welcome in the America First movement if you have any foreign sympathies whatsoever including for fascism or socialism or communism or anything you are not welcome anyway so who were these many people so I clicked on and there was only one person who was even remotely accused of this at the link and that was Charles Lindbergh who even he obviously was not sympathetic to foreign dictators given that he fought in the war against those dictators you don't normally go bomb people you sympathize with and you also don't go over as Lindbergh did he went over to Germany saw the German force up close got all the details he could about it and then came home and shared it all with American intelligence oops so there's actually an interesting book on the whole Lindbergh matter by James Duffy that I recommend it's called Lindbergh vs. Roosevelt the rivalry that divided America but the longer the short of it is that was the only name I could find in that link other people who I would consider to be rather prominent who were associated would be names like Gerald Ford JFK even for a time there were literary figures well first of all there were Norman Thomas there were several progressive senators they had 850,000 members overall there were literary figures like Sinclair Lewis and EE Cummings all kinds of names you associate with traditional Americana not one of whom had the slightest sympathy for any foreign dictator let's go to the priming of the pump thing because Bob read the interview with the economist that Donald Trump did and so therefore Bob's qualified to speak on it so go ahead and do that in case you didn't hear this people were making fun of Trump left and right literally left and right were making fun of him because there was this awkward sentence that came out of this so Trump had I think it was two people from the Economist magazine had come in and did an interview with him and so it was being shared around and everyone was saying oh my gosh Trump is even more of an imbecile and you know an idiot that we thought and he's even crazier and so on so again I clicked and went to go read it and I was I have to tell you in terms of if you were worried about you know is Trump just kind of like putting on a show you know some of his over the top bambastic statements aren't indicating of his mental state of health that you would have thought this thing actually reassured me that Trump is very reasonable he talks for example talking with you know NAFTA and Trump had threatened he was going to pull out and then he gets phone calls from you know the prime minister president of Mexico and he says in the interview they asked me can you postpone can we talk about this and I said okay out of respect for them okay so that's not like the crazy Trump image that you get that he says out of respect for you know the leader of Mexico I decided to reconsider right so I'm just saying things like that another example people were saying oh in this interview Trump says that he introduced the world to Mike Pence but that's not true that's a dirty lie people knew who Pence was if you go and look it up what Trump's doing is so he's talking to the interviewers and then he goes hey has anybody heard of Mike Pence the vice president and then Pence walks in so Trump's putting on a show it's like a wrestling match you know he's like get your hands together for vice president Mike Pence that's what he was doing he wasn't saying had anybody heard this guy before and you know picked him as my vice president so I'm saying little things like that he's like people almost willfully trying not to understand another quick example in this interview Trump's talking about NAFTA and he says the U.S. has a trade deficit with Canada right now and he throws out some number and Matt Iglesias at Vox says that's a dirty rotten lie we actually I was curious so I'm sort of a sleuth what I did is I went to Google and I typed in U.S. Canada trade balance literally the first hit was to the Census Bureau I clicked it and the number matched what Trump said so it's like that's weird so what happened was Iglesias was looking at the goods and services which was a surplus Trump was just looking at the goods okay so fair enough but again that's little things like that where clearly you know rather than trying to say it's weird Trump would lie and make up a specific number that's totally instead of just trying to figure out where did he get that number from and realize oh he was talking about the goods deficit just nope he's a liar okay so the last thing this issue about the prime the prompt so Trump says we have to prime the pump and the economist person says it's very Keynesian and then Trump says we're the highest tax nation in the world have you heard that expression before for this particular type of event and the economist guy says priming the pump and Trump says yeah have you heard of it yes have you heard that expression used before because I haven't heard it I mean I just I came up with it a couple days ago and I thought it was good it's what you have to do okay so that's the snippet that they quoted and so my point is Trump talks funny he says weird stuff but if Trump were really saying I invented I coined this phrase two days ago would he have had three follow you know introductory question to say have you ever heard that before right if I claim that I made up a new song and say to Tom hey have you ever heard this song before and then you know sing a few bars of it and then because I made it up yesterday that wouldn't make any sense right you know what I'm saying so I think possibly what happened is Trump was saying like I hadn't heard that phrase in this context where I stumbled across it and now that's what we're using because I think it's a cool phrase have you ever heard it used like that before so yeah certainly it shows he's not a policy wonk it didn't realize Keynesians have been using that since the 30s but I don't think Trump was claiming I coined this phrase two days ago because otherwise his earlier questions make no sense let's just really quickly hit the we can't have deficit spending now because conditions are totally changed because he says you know he's talking about quit rates and stuff like that just give us 30 seconds of why when he first made that claim few months ago it turns out that months earlier when he was saying we do need deficit spending all these factors that he said are now totally different were exactly the same then when under Obama he was saying we need deficit spending right so we had an episode number 69 yes an episode 69 we had crewmen had the best column of all time it was literally titled deficits matter again okay imagine that one because now all of a sudden trumps in so everyone kind of knew crewmen was going to have to pivot that he was calling for big deficit spending all along but now the trumps in wanting to have big deficit spending and structure spending and tax cuts that would cause the deficit to blow up crewmen wouldn't be for it right and so when crewmen tried to explain why it would have been good if for Obama to have bigger deficits but now it's awful that Trump he gave two things and he said oh because the economy is recovered now quit rates are going up meaning you know more the percentage of people who have jobs then quit it for various reasons that's going up so that shows workers aren't worried about losing their job as much and they think they can get rehired and so we went through and just documented any column crewmen had written in 2016 before the election where crewmen had used the word deficit or I think borrowing was another one and just see the context and so he was all throughout for bigger deficits making fun of the deficit scolds and those people and we checked the numbers the quit rates and the rising wages that the same statistics he was they were like that you know all throughout 2016 as well so again these he had to crewmen knew he was going to be accused of inconsistency and so he grabbed two figures to try to explain why things were different now but those particular statistics had been the same all throughout and the last smoking gun was after the election November 14th 2016 because of time I won't read the quote to you but just go listen to that episode if you want 69 you'll see crewmen literally said that conditions right now are like they were in 2008 not as much as the economy still needs deficit spending and trumps plan is poorly designed you don't get as much bang for the buck but we could still use it right so again it's like crewmen versus crewmen at this point you know where you will get a real bang for the buck contra cruise correct we do have some listeners in the audience that's great alright yeah okay so we have to every episode we have to do this we have to have some awkward segue into our cruise can you believe Bob and I is that the most unlikely in the world to be hosting a cruise and yet people come to it they're as crazy as we are we put suntan lotion or bald spots so just don't worry and we have it's October 2017 this year contracruise.com it's a week of hilarity like okay so yeah we teach some stuff but then we do like we did family feud with libertarian questions which was fantastic we did with libertarian personalities and ideas yeah and but I mean just and then Bob sang and not just karaoke but sang with his band and this year we got special guest Scott Horton the great foreign policy expert we love is coming Michael Bolden of the 10th amendment center is going to be among our guests Jordan Page the musician who now lives in Washington state like you folks is going to be there it's going to be so if you have any if you're saying man the two people in the world I would most like to vacation with are Tom Woods and Bob Murphy then contracruise.com is your website alright there's a lot more we could say about these columns Bob but I believe that at this point they're going to start pulling the fire alarm on us so you want to just wrap her up now it's the awkward pause thanks for listening to Contra Krugman subscribe to the show for free on iTunes or Stitcher at ContraKrugman.com you'll also find detailed show notes pages our blog books by Tom and Bob and more at ContraKrugman.com see you next week


What's going on guys welcome back to the channel critical overload here So when you talk about the exorcist believer in this video here again today We'll be going over the character of Chris McNeil and blatantly discussing what I was teetering on discussing Months months before this dropped back in July when I was talking about the test screening reactions And how I was trying to prep a lot of you who had been watching my video was up until this point now that the handling of Chris McNeil would indeed fall flat on its face a lot of you who even follow me on Twitter were Wondering why I was already being so negative about their claims of her being presented as an expert Why was I already being so negative? But keep in mind again? I already knew how they were going to utilize her granted I still waited and watched the movie and coming out of it I was still one of the people who will still say it was a solid competent enough made film it just missed the marks of what you think a legacy sequel would have been To the exorcist and then even without the exorcist existing if you're just judging this movie on its own merit Even without us already seen and knowing Chris McNeil the way the characters utilized still would just be a complete dud and a turd So Chris McNeil when we meet her she is someone who has apparently spent the last 50 years becoming knowledgeable on all things regarding exorcisms the different religions that practice them and She wrote a book sharing her experience with her daughter Reagan Reagan of course and her drifted apart due to this because the success created some issues in Reagan's life So her mother was cut off and Chris actually has a line where she's like She doesn't even know where Reagan is at this point and she would love to see her daughter one last time So what was so disrespectful about the handling of Chris McNeil in the latest movie the exorcist the believer or the exorcist believer? What was disrespectful is the fact that if I were to take her out of this film It's the same thing and that's not to say you couldn't have done that with Sydney Prescott in screen 5 But the context of that is severely different when I turn on screen 5 I don't have a Sydney Prescott that's presented to me in the most Lackluster Underwhelming you don't really matter sort of way that Chris McNeil is She's handled in a way that initially you want me to think she's this quote-unquote expert but then at the same time you waste it no time in Making sure that that initial introduction or reintroduction of this legacy character is completely stepped on is completely rendered useless It's completely rendered mute. What expert walks up into a room with the possessed child and then Performs an exorcism on said child after you initially stated you have never done an exorcism before So if you have done extensive research and maybe you know an understanding of what that looks like Why would you then go a step further and try to do something you never done before all because you feel sorry for these Strangers you don't know It's just it's it's not sensible and some people have used the argument. Oh, well, she's old. What else should she do? Was dr. Luma's not old as the serious progressed as the Halloween series progressed I think so he seemed fairly fairly old maybe not as old as Chris is in believer But don't that excuse doesn't even add up when you think of all these other old Characters that have been used quite well in other horror projects The fact of the matter is they wrote her in a way that says one thing about her But then you told a completely different story with her.  There is nothing that an expert There's nothing of an expert in this role for her. It's what I'm getting at She comes off like someone who has no idea what she's doing and that's because the way you typed her up as an expert It wasn't followed through in any of her decision-making when it was really time for her to get involved into the story And then she's out and she's out of the story the minute. She really gets into it Catherine stabs her in the eyes with a crucifix Victor comes to her aid drags her out of the room Gets her in the hospital apologizes to her for getting her involved Then she's in the hospital again having these Jamie Lloyd like Halloween 5 episodes and it's it's just nonsensical If she was having visions in that moment, what is causing that to happen? It seemed as though Chris was having vision She's putting her hands up in shit having visions of something happening while the girls are being exercised But why is that happening what is going on with Chris did her research lead to her making some sort of deal with the devil or some Sort of deal with another supernatural entity that now she can see things There is no context given for that and then of course Reagan shows up and visits her Yay, I mean who who cares the fact of the matter is when she is in the story You make very poor use of her she is removed from the story just as quick as she's involved And it makes not a not a lick of difference if anything it just shows the fact that you have once again this creative team Once again taking a legacy character.  She did fine in the role. I don't really have a problem there But then the material she's working with completely awful an awful usage of the character It's everything I do not want for Sydney Prescott I hope a lot of you when you saw it you now see if you agree you at least see where I was coming from This is everything that Sydney Prescott does not deserve. I do not want to see this for Sydney Prescott I would give David Gordon Green and his creative team the only positive legacy star. They've handled well is Lori Strowed Lori Strowed and that's it Lindsey Wallace a waste Marion Chambers a waste Lonnie Elam who was barely a barely even a blimp in the original waste of Just so many wasted legacy stars is all I'm going to say when it comes to the creative team That jumped from Halloween over into the exorcist and continued their streak of poor use of legacy stars now with the latest being Ellen Burstins Chris McNeil character you guys let me know what you think about this down the comment section below Do you think it was a waste of why or why not? Do you see where I'm coming from? Do you not see where I'm coming from? Let me know down below if you haven't already course make sure you subscribe turn on post notification This video in the description I will have links to my social media accounts I'm on Facebook Twitter and Instagram you can message me there of course Let me know there's any movies news or reviews like me to cover in the future and with all that in mind guys I will see you in the next video


Hello everyone, welcome to Options with Doug, streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30pm Eastern Time. And before I go any further, I need to go through the Disclosures. General Disclosure, all Bookmap limited materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk Disclosure, trading futures, equities and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. And before I proceed, let me check on screen resolution. How does my screen look? I understand that there have been some comments about my stream being blurry and I believe that's on YouTube only. So if I could get a... Alright, so Bob says screen looks great on Discord. Moonwalker, Discord is good. How about you folks on YouTube? How does the screen look? So FortyDrover says okay here. So I suggest you on YouTube you can make your settings 720p max and that should work. And in Discord, SKM, AskHowToJoin, just go to the options with Doug live stream on Discord. It's just look under webinars, options with Doug and you'll see my name Doug P with a live icon next to it. And of course he can't hear since he's not watching my stream. Let me just type in a response real quick. Okay. Alright, so again as I go on, if there is an issue with blurry screens or audio, please let me know in chat. Okay, I'm going to go ahead and continue on. So the focus of my presentation as well as the options with Doug chat room in Discord is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two step process for trading and the first is planning and I use positional analysis and I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to help develop a thesis for the day regarding expected trading range and also a directional bias. And that may be a different approach for many of you, something new. Many traders use technical analysis or fundamental analysis. And again, I use positional analysis. This is a new way of looking at the market that I think provides a significant edge. And the second step of my process is execution. And I look at real time order flow and book map and real time market maker hedging flow with Spot Gamma Hero to confirm my thesis and for setups, entries and exits. And finally, questions and comments are welcome on topic questions and comments. And you can post your questions and comments in Discord and the options with Doug chat room and also in YouTube. Okay. And now, just briefly today, what I want to talk about, my agenda for the day is first of all, economic data.  I'll talk about that briefly and then on Friday. And then we'll go over our positional analysis and then finally talk about some setups. And there were some good setups this morning. They might have been a little bit difficult to find, but they were there. All right. So, economic data. And I have covered this a couple times this week. The major event for the week is the CPI data coming out at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time tomorrow. And that has been a big market mover in the past few months as traders are very concerned about inflation and how it may impact the Fed and whether they continue to increase rates, hold or pivot or pause. So, again, the CPI data, and I think that is having an impact on the market today and it certainly will tomorrow. And then on Friday, there's the consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. All right. Let's go through positional analysis now. And the first thing that I want to talk about is the expected move for today. And then compare that with the expected move for the next two days. So, I apologize if this is pretty difficult to see. I can't think of any way to expand this, but this is think or swim. And this is the options chain for the SPX. And this is showing the expected move for the next, for today, tomorrow, and Friday. So, you can see the big difference in the expected move. And this is real time when I looked at it this morning, sometime before noon, the expected move for SPX for today was plus or minus 18.59 points. So, 18.6 points. And now as the day has progressed, as time has passed, that is now at 13.5. But the things to note for tomorrow, again, with the CPI report coming out, there's a huge difference in today and tomorrow, plus or minus 78 points for tomorrow, and then for Friday, which includes the information for tomorrow, plus or minus almost 86 points. So, this is called backwardation. As far as the volatility goes, or I'm sorry, this is actually contango. This is normal. Not this stark difference, but the volatility further out in time being higher. But again, this is unusual. And it's due to the economic data coming out. Okay, let's take a look now at book map. And the first thing we'll look at is support and resistance levels on the chart. And I'm showing... I've got a couple columns with levels here. And the first is the Spot Gamma Cloud Notes. And these are updated automatically from Spot Gamma, and they include SPX levels. And there is the 3950, SPX, 3950, and also combo levels, which combine SPX and SPI levels. So, two levels right here at 3975 and 3976. So, these levels are given in terms of SPX and converted to an equivalent ES number. And right now, Spot Gamma is adding 25 points to SPX to come up with an equivalent ES number. And the number is actually close... the number that I have that I calculated today was closer to about 22 points. Okay, so the next column, this is my Cloud Notes column. And I create these levels in a spreadsheet and use an add-on and book map to display these. And I note the support and resistance levels that are included in the Spot Gamma AM Founders Note. And I mark them on my charts. And I also have SPI key numbers. And normally, I don't mark anything other than the five key daily levels, like the Poop Wall, the Call Wall, the Key Gamma Strike, Volatility Trigger, but in this case, this C5 level seemed pretty significant. So, I mark that as well. And the reason I did that is, you know, I saw these reversals this morning at this level with really no level shown on the ES chart to indicate why price would keep reversing that level. So, I went and looked at my SPI chart and saw in the morning that that was a significant resistance level. And C5 means that is a combo level, SPX and SPI. And five is, I guess, kind of a lower in the range that one to five marks the significance, one being the greatest and five being the least. But in this case today, the C5, this 393 level, was resistance in the morning. Okay, so that level has definitely been in play. And it looks like the ES 3950 that's shown here, this is also on my cloud notes, offered support. And then price has moved up to the SPX 3950 level. And that is expected to act as resistance. So those are the levels in play today. And again, keep in mind that the expected range for today was pretty small. All right, let's talk about shifts and levels. And there were really only a couple of minor shifts and levels. The put wall for SPX increased from 3700 to 3800. And then for SPI, the call wall shifted down from 410 to 392. So yesterday, the 410, I think, was more of a technical based on the definition, just kind of a, you know, again, based on the definition of the call wall, being the strike with the largest net, positive gamma. But 410 was really not in play yesterday. So 392 is more realistic. And Floyd's garage, so it's double the expected range for today. I'm not sure that I understand your question. So the expected range for today at the time that I looked at it was plus or minus 18.5 points. And that was sometime after the open, sometime between the open and noon that I looked at it. I don't recall exactly what I looked at it. So the last time we looked at it a few minutes ago, it was plus or minus 13.5 points. And the range for tomorrow is substantially higher. And we'll just, we'll jump to that real quick. So the range for tomorrow is plus or minus almost 79 points. And that's shown in this upper right corner here. So the market's in kind of a wait and see mode today. Waiting, everybody is doing their final positioning before the CPI data. And expect a lot of movement tomorrow. So again, everybody just seems to be in wait and see in positioning mode today. Okay, so I talked about shifts and levels. And let's go take a look at the S&P 500 absolute gamma levels. And this is for SPX. So this shows that there's the 3700 level. That was the put wall yesterday. And that's the strike with the largest net negative gamma. And it can be expected to act as support. But it was pretty much out of play. So now the put wall shifted up to the 3800 level. And that's more within a realistic range. And then the volatility trigger. That's the spot gamma proprietary gamma flip level. Where gamma shifts from negative below the level to positive above. And then this is the 4000 level. That's the key gamma strike. And that's the strike with the largest absolute gamma as well as the call wall. And that is the strike with the largest net positive gamma. So that's SPX.  And here's SPI. And I forgot to mention, we're looking at, here's the zero level and positive gamma above, negative gamma below. So positive gamma above shown by the black lines. And that's called gamma. And the t-lines are showing negative gamma or put gamma below the zero line. So the put wall is at 380. And that's pretty obvious. And that's a large level of potential support. And then the key gamma strike as well as the, actually the call wall moved up a bit. So the key gamma strike is 390. And there's the 392 call wall. So that is the playing field for SPX and SPI. And let's take a look at data now. And the data that I point out every day is gamma notional. And this is market makers position on the gamma curve. And it's slightly negative, basically neutral for SPX. And that's shown in this left number here. And then gamma notional for SPI is quite a bit larger at minus 776. So what this means, and especially for SPI, is that traders are long puts, market makers are short puts, and they have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure as price decreases. And as price increases, they can buy back their short futures. So what we can take away from this is SPX is basically neutral. So market makers in the, you know, the start position wouldn't have much hedging to do either way with price increasing or decreasing. And again, on the other hand, at the starting point today, market makers where negative gamma for SPI was minus 776. And again, they would have to sell futures as price decreases and buy back futures as price increases. So in a negative gamma environment, they're trading with price and that does tend to increase volatility. Now these levels became more positive today or less negative. So yesterday, gamma notional for SPX was minus 182. And today it's minus 16. And then for SPI it was minus 1060 yesterday and minus 776. So based on these numbers now, we know that, we know how market makers were positioned at the beginning of the day. And it will be very important to see how this, how their position tomorrow morning before the data and what has occurred in the last several large economic events that like the FOMC announcement, CPI data, that the gamma notional has been pretty large negative and that has contributed to a VANA rally. If the data comes out, not as bad as expected or better than expected, markets rally, implied volatility drops and these puts as price increases and implied volatility drops quickly lose value. Market makers' delta exposure decreases and they can buy back their short futures and that can help fuel a rally, especially when there's a big spark like the CPI data. So going into the event tomorrow, again based on right now, SPI is in a negative gamma position but not quite as negative as it was for the last few economic events. And quickly let's just look at the VANA charts and this is showing how market makers' delta exposure changes with changes in price, implied volatility and that's shown by the green line and then as time passes and that's shown for the next expiration in the black line and this is SPX and it's just slightly negative, pretty neutral here and then we'll look at SPI and see that it is slightly more negative just like we saw with the gamma notional number that was more negative. So again, that's just showing that market makers will need to hedge their delta exposure by selling futures as price decreases and then finally just to wrap this up, we'll take a look at SPX and this is showing call gamma versus put gamma, put gamma blue and call gamma orange and not much difference here and SPI shows a more pronounced domination of put gamma again going along with a steeper VANA chart as well as the more negative gamma notional number. Okay, so let's take a look at some setups and first of all, let's take a look at the S&P 500. So go back to ES and I've got to look at SpotGammaHero. I'm going to zoom in on this this morning and what I want to point out is the divergence this morning. Notice how traders, well first of all, let's just focus on the total hero line. So this is ES, S&P 500 futures and this is showing options trades for SPX and SPI combined into one signal and the purple line is the total line so that's showing SPX and SPI call and put transactions and that again combining that into one signal and notice overall it was negative. All traders were taking negative delta positions and let's just see what they were doing and they were buying puts. So positioning for tomorrow probably and this led to several short setups in the morning right there, right there. So let's go look at the S&P 500 chart and BookMam, I'm going to zoom in. So remember that 393 level, SPI 393 level so that's where that comes into play and for me I just like to see that level. I like to see the added confluence of some level that I can lean against and so based on traders buying puts and we'll take a look at the SPI and SPX signals and see exactly what traders were doing in each of those but they were buying overall net, buying SPX and SPI puts leading to several short setups and notice the shift to pink dots reversal at that level then price didn't quite make it up to that level look like a slight stop run up to that level pink dots coming in and then here is the, this was the easy setup I thought so you can see the first reversal just around 945, 950 at that level and then another slight stop run up to that level that's shown here with this green dot the 389 and then the reversal at that level and all the pink dots coming in so I thought that was a good setup short divergence, short setup and you could take that in ES futures, SPI shares, SPI options, SPX options although I would be hesitant to buy an option today based on the small expected range okay let's take a look at, let's go back to hero now go back and zoom out go back to hero let's zoom all the way out so what we can see here is that traders are continuing to buy puts and not doing a lot with calls and you can tell by this number over here on the right and I believe this is in dollar terms so 1.8 billion in terms of dollars, delta versus 329 million so significantly the puts are having a greater impact or even though price is rising but traders are more involved in puts than calls and again that appears to me to be just preparing for tomorrow or positioning for tomorrow so again I think that led to some good short setups this morning and let's take a look at SPX and same thing they continue to buy SPX puts shown by the following blue line not doing much with calls and we'll take a look at SPI and again the same thing and you can also compare these numbers and see that the dollar volume on SPI is much greater than SPX okay I'm watching my screen on YouTube it looks okay to me if anybody on YouTube has any comments about blurry screen let me know on my end it looks okay alright so that was the S&P 500 again what I saw was short setups in the morning and then no read on this afternoon if you're looking at the options market as a signal let's just go back to YouTube book map so I'm looking at this yellow line is really the only rising line and that is stop orders so it appears to me that that stops may be driving this this little bit of a rally up to the resistance at $39.50 so again that indicates indicates buy stop orders as price increases helping to drive price higher and in YouTube big eye studio asked do you prefer the one day rolling window and yes especially for trading in the morning I just leave it at one day and if I want to take a closer look especially in the afternoon I'll may shift down to 30 minutes but I do prefer the one day rolling window for trading in the morning alright the next setup that I wanted to take a look at and 4DDrover asked what is the SPI equivalent to $39.50 and do you mean SPX $39.50 or ES $39.50 okay so the numbers that I calculate I just used the number that Spot Gamma provides for the SPX to ES conversion since those are shown automatically excuse me on my book map chart and for SPI I do calculate the ratio for ES to SPI every couple of days and it has been around 10.09 and today I got 10.0887 so it tends to continually drop after the rollover from around 10.09, 10.10 down closer to 10 so that ratio will get a little bit smaller every day so I change my and that just affects the numbers that I put in my spreadsheet by a little bit alright so the first setup that I want to take a look at is Amazon and let's go take a look at Hero let's go to Amazon and compared to the S&P 500 this is a lot more clear there's a strong correlation between options trades, hedging activity and price action and it looks like calls for driving price action especially in the morning let's zoom in on this just look at the orange line here that gives me strong conviction to take a long, long position let's go back to book map I'm going to zoom in so a lot of times and you can certainly see it here that stocks are a lot easier to read there's less stuff to look at and often a very strong correlation between hedging flow and price action like we see in Amazon today and then just reading question so again strong correlation between hedging flow and price action and stocks the targets are very clear liquidity that comes into the order book typically at the open and stays there until it gets filled so looking at the 93, 94, 95 level all those orders typically come in at the open or a minute a few moments later and stay in the order book until they get filled so we can see that here these sell orders at 94 stayed in the order book until they were filled at just after 12, 15 so those liquidity levels make great targets that are often very obvious in stocks and so the entry points if you were fast this was a fast move at the open catch a breakout move after the open or here was the first pullback open entry just around 10 a.m. a little bit before 10 a.m. with a trend break then the move higher again liquidity targets at 93, 94, 95 and then the next here are a couple of long setups so much easier read than the S&P 500 today Trader H.E. asked on anything that potentially connects to tomorrow's CPI data like knowing how Key Gamma Strikes have been impacted for SPX and ES and Key Gamma Strikes remain the same and there were very little shifts in levels the only significant shifts were the put wall for SPX that increased from 3700 to 3800 and then the spy call wall dropped from 410 to 392 and the most significant thing that I talked about was the expected trading range for SPX and how low it was or is today compared with tomorrow and Friday so today when we look the expected trading range for SPX for the remainder of the day was around plus or minus 13 points and the expected trading range for SPX for tomorrow was around 79 points so huge difference in the expected trading range from today and tomorrow so I'd commented today seems like more of a kind of a wait and see market and traders are buying spy puts and SPX puts positioning themselves for the data tomorrow and that could potentially help set up a banner rally if the market makers position shifts more negative especially in spy and the data comes in a little better than expected or not as bad as expected then that could contribute to a rally so definitely yes we expect a significant range expansion tomorrow put buying today could contribute to a put banner rally tomorrow alright so that was the setup in Amazon and if it keeps going higher it looks like the ultimate target would be the liquidity at 95 and let's go take a look at Hero again and for price to continue to rise I would want to see traders continue to buy calls and it looks like looking in the one day rolling window this time so in this time period this has been pretty flat when you see that it's often a good idea to change the rolling window period to something shorter so there's a question about this before so I'm going to shift down to 30 minutes now and so I don't see any significant reason as far as the options market goes to take along at this point okay let's change that back actually let's just go to the total signal okay so JEC asked could you please explain a batter rally and some users might not know what that term means okay so Vanna is a second order Greek and it is the change in delta with the change in implied volatility and a Vanna rally occurs when market makers are in a negative gamma environment market again traders are long puts market makers are short puts and if again if the data comes out better than expected tomorrow or not as bad as expected and price starts to rally implied volatility will drop so that is one item contributing to the puts decreasing in value implied volatility drops delta decreases market makers delta exposure decreases and they don't need all those short futures anymore so they can buy back short futures so that is one thing just the Vanna alone the change in implied volatility and the drop in delta can drive the rally again with market makers buying back short futures and then the second thing is price increasing also causes those puts to lose value to lose delta with price increasing and implied volatility dropping puts are losing value market makers delta exposure decreases and they can buy back their short futures they always want to remain delta neutral okay I hope that was useful and we talked about ES, SPY and SPX nice short divergence setup this morning and the next one I want to take a look at is Moderna and what I saw this morning was a slight divergence here with calls traders Moderna's price seemed to make a equal high as traders were selling calls and let's just look at the total signal total signal also not rising not supporting price falling slightly so it looks like the short setup there was at $10.50 cleared that let's go take a look at book map Moderna so there's that short setup reading this in order flow you can see that it acted as resistance this 188 level with this buy sweep all these small green dots showing a buy sweep up into that level and then rejection and then the second test of that level again with the now the pink dots coming in aggressive sellers and the target at the 184 liquidity so that's a short setup in Moderna and I'm going to go through these rather quickly I've just got a few minutes left next one is Microsoft we're waiting on that let's go take a look at hero so I thought there was more of a bullish setup here let's go take a look at book map Microsoft so here was the setup this trend break reversal higher just below the 232 call wall this case it acted as support and price reversed higher with the target at the 235 liquidity let's go back and look at hero and let's just see so in this case traders were selling puts that seemed to be driving price action more this morning the rising blue line zoom in a little bit on this morning and here traders started selling puts as price was dropping down to that 232 level then traders started buying calls and price reversed higher at that level next is Netflix and what I noticed here was a slight divergence with hero and I'm looking at the purple line the total hero signal making slightly lower highs and then dropping off more sharply leading to a short setup really anywhere in here and well actually I think I have this marked up on the Netflix chart in book map let's go take a look at that yeah I marked that this morning so you see the falling hero line then a break out of this consolidation range slightly lower highs and then a break out of this range and good for about three points or so which is not a lot for Netflix and the target I I would have targeted the 320 key gamma strike the next one QQQ let's go take a look at hero so traders are they're buying puts and buying calls so they were in them this morning let's zoom in just a bit so this morning they were buying calls and selling puts looks like calls were driving in the morning and let's zoom all the way out again so traders continued to buy calls slightly looks like there was more activity in the morning and they're buying puts but overall it looks like calls are driving which is again in direct opposition to the S&P 500 spy and SPX and this has led to a couple of good long entries right at this 274 C1 level that's a combo one indicating that it is a significant level C1 is the highest in the ranking of 1 to 5 so here was the first setup looking at the zoom in looking at this little trend break and reversal at the 274 C1 level and again the same thing trend break and reversal higher at the 274 C1 level as traders were buying calls and let's take a look at Tesla and then I'll look for questions there's Tesla and let's go take a look at Hero for Tesla so very strong correlation between hedging flow and price action in the morning let's zoom in on that traders were buying calls so from the open until about 1030 that was a good long setup as traders were buying calls market makers are selling the calls and they have to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure let's go take a look at book map zoom in so there's that quick sharp rally in the morning somewhat of a trend break consolidation and then the move higher up to the 125 call wall and that was a target and notice the high liquidity at that level so a significant gamma level as well as a high liquidity level shown in book map so great long setup in Tesla's morning and kind of a slow grind after this quick drop notice all the pink dots coming in with the final sweep up to about 126 all the pink dots the aggressive sellers coming in and moving price down back down to 122 liquidity alright let me check for questions and big eye studio what you're looking at in terms of taking a position on the Amazon chart Amazon traders were buying calls so I know that market makers are selling calls and they're buying stock to hedge their delta exposure so that I want to trade on the side of market makers so that was the hedging flow that I was looking at Amazon there's no way of knowing there's no indicator that shows stops and icebergs for stocks that information is only available for CME futures so what I have to look at in book map for stocks is order flow and I'm looking at liquidity levels as well so order flow is the I'm looking at the size and color the dots and I see these big green dots market buy orders coming in at all these turning points liquidity targets above especially the 95 and price seeks that liquidity alright so this is a stock where I had a reason to take along so I talked about Amazon what else Microsoft QQQ and Tesla so if you didn't catch that go back and watch the recording I talked about long entries in all those stocks and big eye studios ask can I zoom into the first thing in the AEM first 30 minutes and which stock do you want to look at the stocks that I have here in book map let me know which one and there's a question about AEMC I don't have that open in book map we can take a look at hero so right now I'm just looking at my watch list and I have switched from my watch list to the entire list of stocks with hero so this is AEMC and I normally don't I'm not interested in trading stocks that are such low price and plus I think my broker probably would indicate that AEMC is hard to borrow so I would either have to try to find shares short or it's just not worth fooling with I prefer to trade big cap stocks mainly that are extremely liquid and often have a strong almost always have a strong correlation between hedging flow and price action so anyway here's AEMC and if that's something that you like to trade this certainly gives you a good indication for a long showing that traders are buying calls market makers are selling calls and they have to buy stock AEMC stock to hedge their delta exposure so certainly hero here indicates that a long was the way to go and then if I had it open in book map we could look at the liquidity levels for targets and potential entry points okay and final question back to Tesla and again I urge you to big eye studios take a look at the recording I talked about Tesla before we'll take a quick look again and I zoomed in on the first hour so the way that I would trade this first of all I see that we'll just stick with the total signal here well first take a look at the total signal bullish traders are taking positive delta positions and I can see exactly what they're doing and I see they're buying calls in my mind that's an even stronger signal traders are buying calls market makers again are selling the calls and they have to buy Tesla stock to hedge their delta exposure so as price increases they keep having to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure so that is hero let's go to look back to book map go back to Tesla and look at the order flow so pretty choppy in the first really choppy in the first half hour but just looking at price action here you can see somewhat of a trend break this really kind of a downward let me clean that up a bit fine tune that a little bit more so a few higher lows then a break out of that range and somewhat of a consolidation here change that to a rectangle consolidation here and then price breaks out of that range doesn't just clear all that out price consolidates makes a series of higher highs and higher lows and this final test at VWAP here green dots there's a buy sweep then price takes off so I guess really anywhere in here would have been your long entry and a clear price target clear price target at 125 and kind of a bonus target here at 126 both high liquidity especially 125 and notice all the green dots coming in here so there were multiple pullback entries with definitely bullish order flow see all the green dots buy sweeps the small green dots buy sweeps and the large green dots market buy orders taking it up to the 125 call wall liquidity and above buy sweep is indicated by a series of green dodge yes okay I am going to gonna wrap it up at this point that's all I had for today and I think that's got all the questions so thank you everyone thanks for watching thanks for your questions and comments and regarding the blurry screen it looked okay to me if you know if anybody has any comments about the about the screen resolution please let me know and remember tomorrow 8 30 am CPI data should be a big market mover and I will see you tomorrow we'll talk about how the market reacted after the data so again take care thanks for your questions and comments and I will see you tomorrow bye


It's D.K. and I'm back today with another video. Shoot shots in between an end. If you want to win, go on and subscribe one. Give me a thumbs up and do not skip those ads.  In today's video, guess what, baby? I finally completed my first Dolly order and it already left a bad taste in my mouth. Guess what? I caught support on camera, lying, telling me I was gonna get paid for something and I did not get paid. But we're gonna get right into it, baby. Now, the order is we're supposed to pick up seven totes and seven bags, draw 38.2 miles and we receive a payment of 161. Now, just so you guys know, for those of you who are not familiar with the Dolly app, on the Dolly app, it lets you know if the place has stairs, if it has an elevator, if it has hard-world floors, whatever case may be, it lets you know right in the app. So, it does tell me that we have a elevator at the drop-off location. But at the pick-up location, it doesn't say anything. It doesn't say hard-world floors. It doesn't say stairs, it doesn't say elevator. It doesn't say anything. But guess what? When we got to the pick-up location, this happened. How you doing? Off the door, you're gonna get to the other side. Yeah, right there, here over there. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, so you're the person that I'm picking up for? That's my daughter. Yeah, I'm, um, just over the door. I had one around the corner getting some chairs and stuff. Okay. You gotta have one too. Huh? You gotta have one too. Yeah. Oh, she got a lot of totes and stuff. Yeah, on the thing, it says seven totes and like seven bags. It is. Okay. Okay. They all clothes and shoes. My clothes and shoes. Okay. So you want me to stay right here? You can. I'm gonna come in because I got these shelves. I need to bring in anything that I have in the car. Okay. Got to go top, guys. And with the photo, it's more than seven bags and seven bins. It's more than like 10, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, like 12, 12 bags. But it's time for us to get to this bag. Let's go. What did you guys just saw? We just got took on top to the fifth row, like, bruh, man. Guess what? It said that there was no stairs. As you guys can see, when I first got there, I went tripping, baby. I thought it was only a few stairs. Like, it was like five or six stairs right by the front door, right? Five or six stairs, that's cool, right? I'm like, okay. We don't go on the thing. We don't get the little stuff and go down to five or six stairs. That ain't nothing. Once you open that door and I see all those stairs going up there. Oh, no, wait, they go to the picture right there. I see all those stairs going up there. I'm like, okay, man. Now look, that's way way critical. I gotta probably go down like 15 to 17 stairs now with these totes and all this stuff, baby. So that's critical. So I'm like, guess what? Right when I get in the car, I'm going to reach out to support.  Support never picked up the phone. So did I go on the app? I'm thinking like, well, I'm gonna figure this out. So boom, I finally find out that you can make adjustments in the Dolly app. And I did not know this, baby. Y'all should comment below and let me know this a long time ago. And I finally found that out. So I made the adjustment. So now it's time to hit the road and get our pockets on the floor. Let's go. Just like that, we are here to drop off location for those who hate, baby. We are escaped. And I found out a new thing about the Dolly app. So we definitely have more bags than we're supposed to have. And you can actually do adjustment in the app. I ain't know that, baby. Comments below, let me know if you need it. So what we're doing right now, we don't know the address we're supposed to, we don't know the address, we don't know the apartment number. So we're gonna line up everything right here and then we're gonna take it in the building. We're gonna get this money. Keep on willing them, Dolly. As you guys can see over there, that is three, that's the seven bags right there. That's number eight, number nine. How you doing? Yeah, I'm gonna, I'll put this right here. You got all the designer. You got it all. Just like that, we got everything in the building. We are taking our first load upstairs. Our business partner had to stay downstairs to make sure they don't like to take none of the Louis Potter. Now we are on trip number two. And if you're hating, I don't know what you're gonna do. Take this journey in. And then I'm trying to, I hope my business partner took those bags on top of the Dolly laying down like that. So we take like two or three, four at a time.  Trip number three. We are here trying to get busy. I think we're gonna check one more trip after this and then we done to get on the run. We are here getting these funds. Last trip off the rip, shout out to Lil Flick. The game is over. Game over. Get the photo. Alrighty, I'm good to go. Everything is in that room. You're welcome, you have a good one. So we just get done with the order. I'm sweating, I'm sweating. I popped the money, I'm sweating. Woo, I'm sweating, baby. I look at my phone and guess what? Dolly sent me a message that said that the adjustments were denied. I'm like, what's going on? Look, it was there at the beginning and I had some extra bags. I had like five extra bags. So what's going on? So guess what I do? I called Dolly and they tell me this. I'm calling because I had an order in my queue. It's still in my queue as we speak. And when I got to the pick up location on the app, it said there was no stairs. When I got there, there were stairs. And also they added like five more items. I went in the app to make the adjustment and for some reason it didn't go through. I'm not sure if they rejected it or what happened but I actually have photos of everything. Okay, so basically you created an adjustment and you're not yet sure if the customer will be approving the adjustment, correct? So as we're checking here, I think the customer is not yet approved. I mean, the customer did not approve the adjustment but I'll go ahead and communicate now with the customer sending an SMS so the customer can reply, yes. Okay, and what happens if they don't approve it? Then what happens? If ever, worst of worst, the customer will not approve it or they will not reply, yes, then we'll go ahead and send you the helper adjustment form. Okay. So you just heard what she said on the phone, baby. She said, everything is good. So now we're at this point. A few days go past. I don't see that money in my account, baby. I don't know what's going on. Hey, where that money at? I emailed Dolly, right? Then we go back and forth, back and forth, back and forth.  Finally, they tell me this. Hey Jerome, we require the helpers get their customers to approve the adjustments. If there is extra work, the customer should pay for it and helpers should not complete the additional work without having it approved first. Please review our adjustment article for additional information. So that's what I did. I went right to the article and found out this. It says for all other Dolly's, submit the adjustment in the helper app with pictures. The customer needs, listen, it's in bold. Y'all see it right there. The customer needs to approve the adjustments before you complete the Dolly. Our support team will not approve any of these adjustments after the Dolly is complete. Let me hit set again. The customer needs to approve the adjustments before you complete the Dolly.  Also it says this, please include photos when you submit an adjustment request. If the customer denies the adjustment and it is a valid adjustment, then you can leave the Dolly and you will receive cash slides of pay per our policy. So this whole time, this lady told me this, I'm gonna get this money. Now they telling me a whole other things that I'm not getting this money. I don't know what's going on, baby. Hey Dolly, you are out of pocket. Y'all need to get your policy together. And she should have told me at the beginning, baby. She should have let me know that in the beginning. Dolly, you bogus. Then guess what? Not to mention a few days later, I get this. Y'all see that? They had the nerve to give me a two star review after they took me up top. I can't make this up, baby. I cannot make this up. Hey, guess what? They say a paying lesson is the best lesson. I definitely learned my lesson.  Hey, why you trying to go out there and get busy? Do not do what I just did, I tweet. But guess what? It will never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever happen again while I'm out there trying to get them dividends. I hope you guys enjoyed this video. Again, if you're not subscribed, go and ask my subscriber. Give me a thumbs up and do not skip those ads. And like us tomorrow if this is bad. Why do you make this bad? It's 2-2-3, it's big bad season. We'll keep on getting more reason. I'll see you guys on the next one. We going, we going, we going. We fooling you already know the DDK. And I'm on my way.