Good evening and welcome. We're coming to you from the Fiji Symposium in Bangalore and with us today is Kevin Hongwei from Alipay. So welcome Kevin to the Fiji Symposium and first of all how does it feel like to be part of the first Fiji Symposium? Yeah actually this event is very good especially through international organization work together especially for this ecosystem of financial inclusion. It's very good. Thank you for being here and we're happy to have you. Also can you tell us more about the potential of digital financial services to increase financial inclusion? At first we should understand what's the financial inclusion. Financial inclusion is the delivery of financial services at affordable costs to the average people and also the small businesses and especially for the some people in rural area with this digital financial services they can break through a lot of limitations. For example with this we can base on the telecommunication network and also internet. So many many people like people in rural area and also some disabled person. So it's the first break through the limitation. The second one is in the traditional financial services in city halls they have some opening hours so with this digital financial services they can provide services at any time and the third thing is we can use a smartphone and some to get all these financial services. Yeah all of this can promote the financial service. Yeah so a lot of technology which is going to help us promote. Yeah so according to you what are the key innovations that have made Alipay a reference in the digital financial services? Yeah actually I think there is one keyword it's tech thing that's not think tech. We just use some innovative technology to promote financial inclusion and currently we use like big data cloud computing, artificial intelligence and also biometric authentication. And it's the comprehensive solution. For example the artificial intelligence will use some big data cloud computing to provide these financial services and also the biometric authentication and the risk control also need this big data and artificial intelligence. So when you say about biometric and digital ID are there any concerns related to protection and privacy of personal data? Yeah actually identity information is very sensitive so we just use a lot of other information for biometric authentication especially in some local verification for example in smartphone we use just input biometric authentication local and there will be some comparison about this biometric authentication and this sensitive information will not leave smartphone it's the yeah just use some trust environment it's I think most important thing. Yeah and actually in our company we have collaborated a lot of partners in financial services partners to establish AIFA. It's the abbreviation of internet financial authentication aliens so it can make much more better the like biometric yeah biometric authentication for this ecosystem. That's great that's my understanding. Okay thank you so much thank you so much for being part of this thank you very much.


Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to this monthly webinar with me, Michael Hueson and my colleague Colin Cizinski in Canada. I'd like to welcome you and hopefully you'll be able to get the most out of what Colin and I are going to discuss today. First and foremost I need to get the small matter of the disclaimer out of the way. So just do that for regulatory and FCA purposes. I'm hoping Colin you can hear me loud and clear. Oh yeah, thank you, Michael. Okay, good stuff. And once we've got the obligatory and compulsory risk warnings out of the way, we can crack on. Colin and I sort of were chewing the fat beforehand as to what we'd start off with and obviously it's been a fairly busy couple of weeks from an equity markets point of view, a currency markets point of view. We had all that fun and games at the ECB press conference yesterday which was highly amusing though I have to say Mr Draghi looked absolutely terrified. I got sympathised with him. I think I would have as well. But I think today we're going to start with the commodity story because I think what we've seen over the past 24 hours is potential breakouts in crude oil and dollar Canada and Aussie dollar. So I think for the purposes of this particular conversation Colin do you want to start with crude oil, WTI perhaps? Absolutely, let's start with the church for WTI. We had a major breakout for WTI yesterday. It's been consolidating in a channel basically between 45 and 55 for the last couple of months. It did down below 45 a couple of times briefly down closer to about 42 but the primary channel was 45 to 55. If you look at this under 50 you have what's interestingly in addition to the sideways channel you had what's called a cup with handle base which is a technical pattern where you get a large rounded bottom and then you saw it peak up to 50 come back then you have a smaller rounded bottom with a higher low and that's not unusual but it is one of the more rare base building patterns and it's a pretty good one. Also as Michael is drawing in you had a nice ascending triangle of higher loads forming below $55. You've broken out of that yesterday and you're now holding above the $55 breakout point. So to these little slump back in crude oil is no big deal. It's not unusual. You had a 5% gain in WTI yesterday. It got a little overbought. You're seeing it had a 1.2% drop. It's now 1.2 so it's already coming back. You've got to retest. This is fairly normal and positive. I mean it hasn't been during this base building phase previously you'd have a 5% gain in WTI one day, 5% drop the next day. Now you're seeing it break out and hold which indicates increased underlying support for crude oil. So this is actually a very bullish pattern technically and even though the reasons for the huge drop from plus 100 to below 50 are having completely gone away. There are some signs that at least in the near term we may be getting a bit more of a rebound. So you could see this potentially move back up into this kind of 58-59 area and then the 60 round number. I did a 23% retracement on the whole move down from June kicks in around 58-60 so that's a potential initial objective as well. So probably we're looking here initially to move up into the high 50s around 60 based on the strength of this really, really nice technical breakout here and it is showing a nice turnaround in sentiment for crude oil. One thing I would say with respect to that is I think we really need to stay above this series of highs here in February and I think that's what we need to watch out for because I think here we've peaked out around here the potential tweezer top there. We could slip back towards this support line here around about $53.80. So that's certainly not outside the realms of possibility given how volatile the dollar is and I think it's also important to remember in the context that even though we've seen a breakout in WTI we haven't seen a breakout in Brent. When we look at oil prices I'm always a big believer in using Dow theory and I know that sometimes Brent and WTI don't correlate that well. In this case here what we've got is we've got a trend line from the June highs and it's coming in right on the highs in February, the twin highs that we saw in February-March and at the moment it's struggling to break through this $62 area on the Brent chart. So even though we did breakout higher certainly in the context of the range that we've been in on the four hour chart over the past couple of weeks we haven't broken out of the range highs and the February-March highs and we're also coming into trend line resistance from the June highs as well and the oscillator is starting to turn lower. So you're right in terms of the breakout in WTI but I'm a little bit cautious given the fact that Brent hasn't done the same thing. Yes absolutely and I agree with you. You want to see the two of them confirm each other. The other interesting thing for traders to note of course is that with this we're seeing a decided narrowing of the spread once again and the last couple of months the spread has been kind of running around $10 even. Now it's down, it looks to me like it's down under $7 or pretty close to $7 anyway so the spread has narrowed dramatically over the last few days. It's about $6, $7 between $6 and $7 but of course this is also me this is also quite interesting in the context of what it does to DollarCAD which is very very susceptible to move in oil prices and I think in the context of the WTI move the DollarCAD move that we've seen is actually quite instructive and if I can bring up the chart here you will see what I mean. This is a chart that I've been looking at since the beginning of this year simply on the basis of the fact that we've had a very very strong area of resistance through 128 and we've had very very strong support with 123.50. We've now broken down, we've broken below. Now there's a number of reasons for that. Obviously the rebounding crude oil is positive for the Canadian dollar and Colin you can expand upon why that is. Absolutely the rebound in Canada is a major oil exporter and the Canadian dollar has been following crude oil prices up and down in general over the last few months so this big rally in US DollarCAD coincided with the big crash in crude oil. The leveling and base building we saw in WTI we're seeing in this big huge top forming here in US DollarCAD and the breakdown yesterday of course coincides with the breakout in WTI. On top of all of this we also had some fairly positive comments out of the Bank of Canada yesterday. They had their latest meeting and once again they did not cut interest rates again. This time the street was expecting that and basically what they said was in their statement that they felt the impact of the crude oil crash had hit more quickly than they were anticipating but it wasn't any worse than they were anticipating either and they also went on to say that they think the economy will start to rebound in the second quarter and that the lower loony has helped the exports sector the exports were running at double the growth rate of the overall economy. So overall things were what they're looking for is a more broader return from help out by the lower Canadian dollar. So I think what you'll probably see here is you can get a nice advance saying in DollarCAD coming back to say $1.20 but I don't think you'll see it necessarily going back to $1.10 or par anytime soon. I think that's a long way off. But I do think we're seeing some of the pressure that had been on oil and had been on CAD starting to ease off a little bit and can help them to strengthen in the coming months. With regards to the Bank of Canada they are still basically we're talking as though the interest rate cut that they did do earlier this year was more of a one and done. They viewed it as an insurance policy to keep the broader economy on track but that they weren't seeing the whole thing fall apart. Okay, so basically the trade here on this particular pattern is in essence it looks to go short dollar Canada while below $1.20, $3.50, $6.00. So on the basis of that chart there, yes, the oscillator does look very, very oversold. It certainly looks even more oversold on the 4-hour chart but you can see quite clearly we've had a bit of a break lower. If we actually look on the 4-hour chart we can actually see the lows are around about $1.24. So I think we do need to be a little bit aware of a short squeeze. A short squeeze could happen and a short squeeze could go all the way back to $1.24 given the aggregation of lows over the past few weeks around that sort of area with an awful lot of congestion between $1.2350 and $1.24. So we do need to be aware of the prospect or possibility of a short squeeze given how long this pattern has taken to unfold. It started at the end of January. It's now completed mid-April so that's nearly three months which suggests that we need to project a target. It's a potential double-top, triple-top, whatever you want to call it but the measuring technique for a breakout is you basically take the distance between the highest point and the lowest point which in this case is around about 450 points give or take. Let's say 400 for ease, 128, 124. Project 400 points down from $1.2350 and you're looking at around about $1.1950. So over the course of the next two to three months you would expect for this pattern to unfold and move to $1.201950 over the course of the next three or four months for that particular pattern to unfold. And that's generally a fairly unique measuring technique when it comes to measuring a top formation and a breakout. Is there anything you want to add Colin or should we move on? No, that sounds fantastic. Let's move on and talk about the Aussie dollar next. Okay, so Aussie dollar and other commodity currency again is the prospect that we could well have seen a bit of a breakout here. This is a four-hour chart. Again, the oscillator is looking a little bit over ball but that doesn't necessarily mean that we can't go higher. So let's look at it. There's a double bottom base there. So we've got a double bottom base. Let's go daily first. Let's look at the daily. So we've got a nice little double bottom base here. You can see the candles trading in a nice little sideways pattern with the top of that around about 7740. We can see the 7740 level is quite important in the context of the lows through here, the highs there, the highs there. So it's worked as a fairly good pivot level in the past. So what does that mean going forward? Again, we can line up a trading plan. And the trading plan at the moment, by the looks of it, is we need to consolidate this move above 773040. And as long as we stay above 773040, then there's a good chance that we can move higher. And again, the technique is more or less the same. It's not the perfect double bottom. You can see that the lows aren't exactly identical. You've got 7533 there and you've got around about 754050 there. So again, you're talking about 150-200 points and move higher towards this trend line that I've drawn in here. And I don't know why I've drawn that in, but let's look at the daily chart. Again, it's from the October highs. So we are approaching a little bit of a potential reversal pattern here. And we've then got these series of highs through March, which could well prompt a breakout from this particular level here higher. But this line here is probably going to be a fairly strong line. So there's certainly something to be aware of in the short to medium term. So anything you want to add to that, Colin? Yeah, I just wanted to highlight that one of the things that propelled the breakout overnight was that the Australian jobs report came out and it was pretty strong. They showed a job growth in the 30,000 range. Most of that was full-time, which was also quite encouraging. And their unemployment rate fell to 6.1%. So you are seeing a breakout on good news, so the two of them are reinforcing each other. Also the participation rate went up by the same amount. The unemployment rate dropped from 6.3 to 6.1, 0.2%. And the participation rate went up 0.2%. So it was proper jobs growth. Because the participation rate went up, the number of people in work went up, and the unemployment rate came down. That doesn't always happen like that. And it certainly doesn't work that way in the US. Usually if the participation, usually if the unemployment rate drops, so does the unemployment rate, which is not always a good indicator because it can be misleading. Another reason I think for the strength of the commodity currencies is a little bit of US dollar weakness. I know this is something that you and I have disagreed on, Colin, over the course of the last few months. The timing or otherwise of a US Federal Reserve rate rise. Yesterday's economic data, industrial production, disappointing. Philadelphia said it's just come out as we've been on air and it's actually come out better than expected because the empire manufacturing was disappointing yesterday. The Bayes book was disappointing. Housing starts today were disappointing. And what we're seeing at the moment I think, whether you believe it's weather related or not, is the fact is the US economy does appear to be experiencing a little bit of a soft patch. Now you can debate what the reasons for that are. Obviously the strong dollar is probably one part of that, but it certainly feeds into a narrative that potentially we could see the Fed hold off on a rate rise. And obviously I've said in previous webinars that I don't think we'll see a Fed rate rise this year and none of the data that I've seen so far has made me change my mind on that. Whereas you Colin, I think you're sort of pushing the timing out slightly, aren't you? That's correct. When I was looking at the combination of the slowing data we've had for March, whether it's weather related or not. And more importantly to me was that in the March, the Fed meeting that the members cut their projections, I don't see how you can go raising interest rates when you're cutting your GDP and inflation and Fed funds projections. So to be fair, the average kind of went from a little bit above 1% down to around 0.6, 0.7%. So what that made me think was okay, fine. By the end of the year, instead of looking at three rate hikes, you're probably looking now at two, which changes the scenario to you. You could go one in September, one in December, one in October, one in December. So there's still the possibility out there that if things come around later in the year that they could still put in a hike or two by the end, like when they started tapering a few years back where they snuck it in right in December just before Chairman Bernanke retired, just to get it in by the end of the year. So that's possibility still out there. I do think June is looking pretty unlikely now because at a minimum now you've got to wait and see all the April data to come out with and answer the question. Was March or one off? Was it an end of quarter adjustment? Was it the weather? Or was, as Michael's suggesting perhaps, the beginning of a bit of a soft patch in the economy. Now we'll look at last year, and actually I guess that's another thing to think about as we come into Q2 in particular on the year-over-year data.  And so now the question will be, are we going to see that kind of lift again this year or not? What is the momentum out there in the States? And the other thing you mentioned, Michael, about the U.S. dollar, that's particularly important now as we move into earning season and explains in a lot of ways why we haven't seen the U.S. indices follow the European and the nature Pacific markets higher, is we're starting to see in some of the early earnings reports that the higher U.S. dollar is a drag on corporate earnings. We saw, even though Netflix people responded to the strong subscriber growth, they had a huge miss on earnings on foreign exchange. And big tech, a lot of big tech companies have been warning on the negative impact of the higher U.S. dollar on their earnings. So that's something that we could see play out over the course of earnings season. Just looking back to the Fed for a second, one of the reasons why I think that they need to do something and whether it's one increase or a couple of increases is that they've kind of played themselves out. They've done multiple rounds of quantitative easing. Interest rates are almost at zero and they're kind of at a point where they need to reload. They need to give themselves some tools that they can work with for when the next crisis hits. I go back to the Bank of Canada, did a couple of interest rate increases back in 2010, which came in handy when the oil price crashed last fall and gave them the room to actually put through an interest rate cut and room for a second one if they needed down the road. Whereas the Fed has kind of painted themselves into a corner, I think they have to do something and whether it's raising interest rates, I'm going to leave it there because Michael, I think this is a good point to go to your theory which I think is really interesting. Yeah, I mean the Fed hasn't raised rates in 10 years and to be quite honest, I think given what we know now, it would be very, very unwise to do so given the experience the European Central Bank had in 2008 and 2011 when they raised rates to deal with an inflationary threat that subsequently was not there. And interest rates are a very blunt tool to basically try and control monetary policy expectations. Now we've seen the Fed, when the financial crisis hit in 2009, they cut rates to zero. What they also did was they embarked on a QE program, three QE programs to be precise, between 2009 and the end of the last QE program, which was at the end of 2013. If you want to send a message to the market without tying yourself up in knots, you've got a balance sheet that is worth $4 trillion. Why not start to shrink that balance sheet? What do you essentially do is you stop reinvesting the proceeds of mortgage-backed securities and treasury bonds that are maturing or you sell them back into the market. That in itself increases the supply of bonds and to a certain extent it also pushes the yield curve up. That in itself gives you a little bit of a tightening bias to monetary policy. What it also does is you don't hold yourself a hostage to fortune by interest rates because essentially if it goes wrong, you then don't have to reverse the interest rate cut. All you do is you slow down your sales of bonds or you stop them or you reverse them. It's much more subtle and it's a lot less crude. Interest rates can either go up or they can go down with the size of the balance sheet and the amount of bonds and treasuries on your balance sheet. You can adjust them up and you can adjust them down and it's a much more elegant way of doing it. I think when we're looking at what the Fed's going to do later this year, I think what we need to look at is the language. When we hear policymakers saying they want to normalise monetary policy, don't automatically assume that means raising rates. It could just mean that they're going to start looking, selling off some of their bond portfolio and that in itself could tighten rates. Now I think it's a much more credible response than the blunt tool of jacking up the Fed funds rate. Yes, I agree with you and if I could add to that, Michael, this is similar to the strategy that the European ECB did over the course of the last two years. In 2012 they had their first LTROs where they had to stabilise everything during the initial round of bailouts and crises and then they had those, they were just doing the weekly repayments and running it back down and they ran a trillion euros back down off that over the course of two years in what I called the stealth taper. Then what we're seeing with the new QE program is basically just putting all that back into the market again. It gave them the flexibility and a quiet, steady way to then be able to act again when they needed to. I agree with you, I think that would be, that to me makes a lot more sense for the Fed to do than raise interest rates. I agree with you on that. Okay, so what does this leave us with respect to euro-dollar? At the moment everyone is still looking to push euro-dollar quite a bit lower. I think it's starting to build up a bit of a base. Certainly if we look at the four hour chart it's probably not as obvious, but if we look at, say for example, the monthly chart here, we've had a precipitous decline of the peaks just below 140 in 2014. We've got the all-time lows back in 2000, at 82.30, 0.823 is zero. We've got the peaks at 160.37 in 2008 and we've got this 105 level here, which I've outlined which basically was the lows all the way back in March 2003, 105.02. Now, we haven't yet closed, we haven't posted a monthly close below 105 and I think that for me is very, very significant. Look at how oversold the oscillator is. Now, I don't want you to read too much into that because oscillators can remain oversold for a lot longer than your eye can stay solvent. So don't read too much into that, but certainly in the context of this candle here, we've pushed lower, but it's quite a long, lower shadow on that March candle there, which suggests that the down move is starting to get a little bit tired, certainly in the short to medium term. So we've certainly got potential for a rebound, but what we really need to do is we need to try and push and close below 105 and at the moment that doesn't appear to be, or it doesn't appear to be getting much traction. That being said, we've had number of very disappointing US data items come out and the euro hasn't gone up. So that is a worry, but if we look at this weekly candle chart here, we've had a strong down move and then with this candle here, it does appear to suggest that the market is getting a little bit nervous of being short. It's not quite a bullish engulfing week, but it's not far off it. This down move here that we saw after non-farm payrolls failed to push us through 110, has obviously brought us back lower again, but what we haven't seen is we haven't taken out the previous lows around 105 and at 104.60. So again, the upside bias or the susceptibility to a rebound is still there. We're at the moment trying to push through 107, so I'm going to take it down even further and this is how I break down my charts to try and get a gauge of where we're going to go next. So again, we've had a whole succession of down days and now we look as if we could have three successive updates. Look at yesterday's candle. We've tried to go lower and we've failed to take out the previous days lows and each successive low has been higher than the previous low. So that suggests to me that the market while it's oscillating wildly in the context of the daily moves, it's not taking out the previous days low, which suggests to me that the market is reluctant to get overly short. Now obviously that could well change over the next day or so. We're coming up to the weekend. I think people generally always get a little bit worried about the weekend, what with Greece and everything else and the possibility of a Grexit. I think Greece will default eventually. It's really all a matter of timing. It could be this weekend. It could be next weekend. It could be next month. I don't think it will be next year, but it will certainly be sometime in the next two months because I don't think the discussion with respect to Greece is sustainable. Putting that to one side, we can see from here that the lows are getting higher and the highs are also starting to get a little bit higher. So momentum does appear to be slowly building for another test higher towards these three peaks here around 110. We had three attempts, one, two, three. We've come back down. We're now trying to test back through 107.50. We need to get through 107.60, 108. And if we get through 108, then I think we're going to have another crack at 110. It certainly does appear to be the case that we're starting to build up a base. Certainly the candles do appear to suggest that, but for some reason the market continues to remain very volatile. But until such times as we take out 105, I'm very reluctant to be aggressively short euro-dollar. That's something I kind of point into the question, Michael. Yeah. First of all, this 105 is not quite perfect yet, but that is starting to look like a double bottom, which is encouraging. And certainly we've seen a lot of double bottoms, double tops, triple bottoms, triple tops across a number of markets in recent weeks. So that is starting to become a pattern that's playing itself out across a number of asset classes. But I guess the question is, when we go to the thing about Grexit, do we think the market has priced this in already? I mean, it's certainly been talked about enough over the last few weeks, and the way we've seen the euro come down. Some of that was a stronger dollar. But still, I've asked myself, how much of a Grexit been priced in already? And my second thought is whether this is a domino, I don't think that necessarily a domino effect is priced in, but would you actually get one? Yeah. I think that's the million-euro question. I think the effect will probably be felt more in the bond market than it would be in the currency market. If there was a Grexit, basically it would undermine the perception that the euro is irreversible. So then it would be a question of who's next in the firing line. Now at the moment, I don't think there's any prospects that we're close to another, what I would call a large-scale break-up of the euro by no means are we near that. But I think certainly in the context of the irreversibility of the euro, it would do an enormous amount of damage. And I think three or four years time, suddenly Greece starts to turn itself around and Europe is still stagnating, well then. So the linkage is in the banking system. The losses to Germany because of the ELA target to the amount of money that's been basically loaned to the Greeks. The rest of Europe may not get back. There will be taxpayer losses, which could be politically toxic for the German government. Yeah, you can say that you've insulated yourself against them, but there will be losses. And I don't think you can underestimate, we don't really know where we are. A good part of the European bond market is negative yields. So again, you've got the uncertainty principle there. So I think it's difficult to establish whether it is priced in or not. But don't underestimate the capacity for volatility. I agree with that. I think you could see if anything on any kind of an event, you could see some really big moves. And potentially that could be big moves in both directions until people figure out what the heck is really going on. Yeah, and I think that's probably the key takeaway more than anything else. So I mean, that's the euro. Before Colin, I'm going to move on to the pound against the dollar now, but I would throw this open to you guys who are listening. Is there anything that you guys want Colin and myself to cover that we haven't covered already? If there is, please send us a message over the chat system and we'll cover it. Otherwise, I'm going to move on to the pound against the dollar, particularly as this will be the last one of these we do before the election, which is looking to be a particularly interesting lead up over the course of the next two to three weeks. Certainly the pound against the dollar. Again, we've got to, you know, I don't see too much upside in the pound against the dollar for the time being. Certainly there's a bit of a barrier all the way through here around about 150 every time we try to push through that. We've come straight back off again, and I think we can draw that through here, 149.94 there. Let me just extend that backwards like so. So we can see from this cable chart here, pretty similar story in the context of the euro dollar. It's, you know, the declines that we've seen thus far have largely been as a result of the stronger dollar. It's been less about sterling weakness because if you actually look at the pound's performance against the euro, it's been particularly good. So those of you who want to go on holiday to Spain or somewhere like that, you know, getting 138, whereas beforehand you're getting around about 120. So from that perspective, the pound is quite strong, but the big point I think to look at is again here, we've got a very, very strong reaction of 146, which cleared out a lot of long positions just above there. I've got a bit of a reversal. Once again we've got on this daily chart higher lows and higher highs, but we need to clear this level here, 150. Now this big candle here, you won't be surprised to know that this happened in the wake of the FOMC meeting, the Fed meeting in March when the Fed dropped its patience language, and when it drops its patience language, it then downgraded its growth and inflation forecast and that's what sent the dollar lower and the pound higher. But what's interesting to know, it didn't close above 150. So for me the 150 level is the line in the sand for me on the upside. If we can sustain the move back above 150, we certainly could get a run towards 152. Otherwise, I think what we've got here at the moment is support around 147.40, resistance at 150, and support 145.50. Anything to add Colin? Because I've just been asked to do the UK 100. So unless you want to move on to something else, I will move on to that. No, that's great. Let's move on to stocks. Okay, so let's look at the UK 100. We've consolidated and moved above the 7000 level, and I think I covered this in my video this week, but it still remains as true now as it was then. If we look at a long-term chart here, we can see that 6,980, 6,950, that was really the big, big level on the top side. It was these series of highs through February and March, held quite nicely. We did briefly pop above it in mid-March before coming all the way back down to test the 200-day moving average, which we bounced off quite nicely. Since then, we've gone through 6,980 again. We've sustained the move above 7000, and we've sustained it fairly comfortably. So I think there's potential for further upside in the UK 100, but that doesn't rule out a move back here to around about 7000. As long as we stay above 7000, then I think there's potential for a move to 7200 and potentially higher. I think it's a similar sort of story in all the other indexes as well, particularly in Europe. What we don't want to see, I think, with respect to European markets is a strong rebound in the euro, because if we get a strong rebound in the euro, that could push European markets lower. I don't think it's been any coincidence that at the time the euro has been weakening over the course of the last four months, European markets have outperformed. Every time we've had a rebound in the euro, the DAX in particular has pushed lower. So a stronger euro is potentially going to weigh on the DAX and other broader European markets. So for the purposes of this particular chart here, we can see for the moment in the short term through here, around about 7000 and 40, there's going to be an area of support. And we look as if we're probably going to test that over the course of the next day or so. If we drop down to around about 6,980, I wouldn't be surprised. But overall, I'm not bearish on the UK 100 quite yet, but I would be concerned if today we dropped below this low here, which is 7,056, which were only about nine points above. Why would I be concerned about that? Because basically what we've done is we've made a fresh high and if we then close below yesterday's low, that would be a key reversal day. And a key reversal day is potentially bearish. And as such, if we post the key reversal day today, then we'll probably track lower towards 6,980. So keep an eye on the close today. Ladies and gentlemen, on the UK 100, if we close below yesterday's lows, then that could potentially be bearish for a short term move lower. On that, Michael, could you please pull up the Dow chart? I'd like to do a bit of a contrast here. Sure. The Dow, not the S&P. Either one's fine. Let's do the S&P. Or the Dow's fine. No, that's all right. I've got the Dow there. Actually, I think the Dow chart's better because I've already drawn a little sloping line in. Yeah, so one thing I just wanted to mention here over the last, say, since the beginning of March is we've seen a number of major world indices break out to new highs. So we had new highs in the Dax. We've had new highs in the FTSE. We had new highs in the Hong Kong, Japan have just exploded to the upside. The straits has broken out to a new high. Everywhere except North America is the one play in Australia where they're stuck at 6,000. But US in particular, you do have lower highs here, but you're almost looking at a bit of a triple top here. You've gone sideways. Of course, over the last couple of years, you've had a massive rally in the Dow. And I just wanted to mention this is what I'm talking about about the impact of the higher dollar. It's not just the higher dollar in and of itself, but more importantly, the impact on corporate earnings. We can see every time the Dow tries to push higher. This is even with the sentiment changing sentiment now that the Fed is likely to back away from a June lift-off for rates into later in the year. And as you suggested, perhaps do something else entirely. Previously, anything that had suggested that the Fed may not be as hawkish had been enough to drive markets higher and now it's not. And I think that's because we're starting to see this corporate earnings effect starting to kick in and drag on US stocks. Yeah, and I think that's the key. I think what the Fed does over the next few months, all I think have a significant impact on what US markets do. And I think that really partially explains why we've not really gone anywhere since the beginning of this year when the S&P at the beginning of 2015 was trading roughly around 2060, and now we're slightly above that. But we're certainly nowhere near. We've seen nowhere near the gains in the S&P that we've seen in the DAX, the Italian market, or the French market. And we can see that borne out in this particular chart. Here, ladies and gentlemen, we're seeing a bit of an aggressive sell-off in the DAX. And actually, looking at this chart here, you can see what I mean by just because an oscillator is overbore doesn't mean the market can't carry on going up. We've potentially got a little bit of a breakout coming along here, though I probably need to redraw that trend line from the lows ever so slightly because of this here. So let me just do that. But there does appear to be some evidence that maybe the market could be gearing up for a bit of a move lower. We've broken below the previous highs at 12,220 after making a brand new high. Let's see what the weekly candle chart looks like. Well, that's going to be interesting, depending on where we close this week. Could that potentially be a bearish engulfing week? It's looking like it, isn't it? It is. I mean, we've got a tweezer top. The highs, the two-week highs are exactly identical. Let's look at that there. We've got 12,392. And 12,392, give or take, rounding up or down. So you've definitely got a tweezer top there. Certainly on the daily... If you had 12 in that trend line, you'd look pretty ugly. Yeah. So it's definitely worth keeping an eye on the weekly close on the DAX. Let's see what other European markets look like because I think one thing I have noticed is the French market has actually outperformed the DAX this month. It's actually continued to kick on. But you can see there, it's been much less volatile, certainly significant area of support around 5,200. But then when you actually look at the big history on the French market, it's not hard to see why. We're well below the 2007 peaks and the 2000 peaks. So the French market is well below its all-time highs, whereas the DAX is at its all-time highs. So sometimes it's not as, what I would say, coordinated as it could be. One thing I would say is that the Spanish market is also showing signs of exhaustion on the daily charts. And we can see that borne out in this market here. And I think it's quite interesting that the two best performing economies in Europe, Spain and Germany, the stock markets, look as if they're about to start rolling over. You look at the bearish candle here. It's not a bearish engulfing pattern. And the reason for that is because the candle here is exactly the same color. They need to be opposite colors. And here what you've got is a little bit of a rollover. Let's see what it looks like on the weekly chart. Again, potentially bearish, a brand new high. If we closed below the previous week's high, that could potentially be bearish. And we could trickle down back towards this gap that we saw four weeks ago when we pushed higher at the end or in the beginning, in the middle of March, February-March. So worth keeping an eye on the Spanish Ibex and the German DAX because I think if those two markets roll over, it could drag on the rest of Europe's markets, namely France and Italy. Okay, well, it's 1542. Unless anyone else wants us to cover anything else, I'm going to wrap things up now.  Otherwise, I'd just like to thank you all for listening today. Hopefully you've got something out of what Colin and I were talking about. Now, if you do have any questions on any of the things that we've discussed today, please feel free to tweet us. I'm at M.Husen underscore CMC. And Colin is at C.Cizinski underscore CMC. Otherwise, I'd like to thank you all for listening. And I hope you can join us at the same time next month. Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. And thanks, Michael. This was great. Cheers. Thanks, Colin.


I'm Herman Geneste. I'm cyber transport 3d1 x2 by trade My mission here at Aldafra is to provide communication specifically network communication from end to end Meaning all the war fighters on the ground right all all leadership all those who have to make decisions They have to communicate with others We provide the network capability and maintain the network capability for them to do their job My job is the transportation of the data that they're sending out meaning the voice that you're sending to the phone Having that voice delivered to the other side of the phone call or the other side of the email There's there's so much that goes into that the war fighters on the ground right the anyone ranging from the The person at the de facto to the wind commander will not be able to communicate with his counterparts or whoever else needs to Receive the message or a message. They won't be able to do that without us doing our job Meaning from the emails that we receive the phone calls we make none of that happens without the networking side of the house


So many people are worried these days about being cancelled. I have news for you. You cannot cancel the one who God has called. If God called you, they can say what they want. They can speak against you. They can slander you. They can petition and they can comment and they can complain. But if God has called you, no one can stop you.


Hey everybody, it's Brian. I am back. So everybody say welcome back Brian If you don't know I was on vacation for two and a half weeks and I went through I'm from America But I went to like Barcelona. I spent a week in Paris. That was actually amazing What you know, we took a cruise down through this whole little area went to like Naples and Rome and Monaco Cairns nice few other places. It was it was amazing It was hard to believe that you know just a little bit over yonder's where all the turmoil in the world's really going on right now Maybe that was a very ignorant thing of me to say, but you know what? I mean, it seems to be in the news here in the States And it was before I left I uploaded a video called cute TCP server design proof of concept. Well as promised Now that I've found a design that I'm happy on I'm going to make a series of tutorials on it I say series because there's just no way I can do all these in one tutorial So this one's gonna be a little bit of explanation and we're gonna actually start the project and then I'm gonna do I'm gonna hope to do like three maybe four videos, but it may take as much as five or six videos to do this If you didn't watch the cute TCP server design proof of concept. It is all about the C10k problem See country product that the C10k problem is all about how to get a TCP server to handle 10,000 connections now I'm gonna preface that with and If you you really should join the Facebook void rums group because those are very good conversation about it and Ryan One of the members in there had a really good thing if you're saying if you need more than 1,000 connections You're doing something wrong and I actually believe that but I like a challenge and when I go through my void rums mailbox Probably 90% of the questions are about TCP and TCP server relations and how things work So if you go out to my website and you look for tutorials, you see it's kind of bear you've got sockets We got how to make a server Multi-threaded q thread pool and then a synchronous So if you're not it really interested in watching the next few videos, but you're kind of curious what it's about I'm going to be showing how to do a synchronous and threading combined and do it correctly Or I should say the cute way of doing it If you're a programmer, you know, there's many many ways of doing anything. So Whoo now Some of the concepts that we've used are signals and slots We've done a basic server application where everything's on the main thread if you try that, you know, it locks up We've tried multi-threads now With multi-threading There's the premise especially if you come from Java that you'll use one thread Per socket. Well threads are very expensive objects to have in memory. So if you start getting upwards of about 50 60 70 100 connections your server is going to start dying on you because it just can't create that many threads the operating system Will stop you and say hey stop what you're doing So then I thought you know, and this was a while ago. I said, ah, I'll try the q thread pool And what a thread pool is is you have a group of threads like say four or five And you'll reuse those threads. So as a connection comes in you'll dump it on a thread in the thread pool So you're never creating more than maybe five or six threads and they just get reused over and over at the problem With that is if you have like say a web server You're only gonna have five six simultaneous connections or however many threads So if you have ten threads in your thread pool, and you have twenty people requesting a file Guess what ten people are gonna get put on hold waiting on the other ten people who are downloading That's just the nature of a thread pool And then there's a synchronous This is actually the real nature if you really want to learn this watch the 70th video It's actually out on my website void realms calm and it's also on YouTube and It's just a synchronous. It's just signals and slots. It's so ridiculously simple. You're gonna go what this is actually a tutorial But yeah, it's actually the nature of how it was designed to be used So I've tried as you can tell I've tried a lot of different models And the model that I really came up with kind of uses a combination of well, you make a thread You dump all these synchronous connections onto that thread now. You also need to buffer Let me promise that you need to buffer the downloads meaning you can't just have 10,000 people downloading at max speed you'll fry your network card not really but you know what I mean You'll you just won't be able to do it your your server will choke and die so you need a way of What's called rate limiting that connection meaning setting it to you will only download at 10k a second You ever notice that you go to like a website not so much YouTube, but like if you're downloading something else and You've got let's say here in the States. I've got I think it's a 10 meg connection And when I go to download something it's not 10 megs per second It'll cap around one or two megs a second. Well, that's actually the server restricting that not Comcast Which don't give me into Comcast. I hate them, but So if you're really interested read the C 10k problem, there is a lot of information in here Now before we really dive in here. I want to make some disclaimers number one as You know Ryan said in the void realms group in Facebook if you're using over a thousand connections You're doing something wrong. I happen to believe that but there may be situations. You want more than that The reason why you'd be doing it wrong is there's these things called load balancers So you have let's say Let's say 5,000 connections coming in at once, right? It'll hit a load balancer, which will pool your servers You'll have multiple servers and it'll say which one of you servers is the least busy and then it throws the connection onto that server So you'd have you know five servers with identical websites on them And it'll just you know the load balancer will send it to the server with the least load on it That's the correct way of doing it But if you're like me and you like a challenge and you're really interested in how this works Well, stay tuned because I'm gonna be going over it in depth Maybe if I can find cute all right here is the actual working code And I'm actually going to start this over from scratch But I wanted to show you guys kind of the premise of what this is gonna look like here It's called VR sockets. I'm just gonna call the project something else But we're gonna have these includes and what we're gonna do here is we're gonna make a TCP server implementation And then from that we're going to inherit and make a HTTP or a web server implementation with a great transfer class Now I would love to just throw the code up here and talk about it But every time I do that people go boo, don't do that. We want to see you type the code So I'm gonna type all this stuff out again and talk about it as we do it just gonna run it just so you can see and In in Linux it kicks out some error that I haven't really had a chance to investigate in Windows it doesn't On my Linux machine it stops at about 1,024 connections The reason for that is something called a you limit or the hard file limit So if you do you limit Dash and in Linux you'll see it's 1,024 which means that's my I think it's a my soft descriptor What it means really is that is the maximum number of files I can open now if you know anything about Linux Unix etc, etc Sockets are considered files So looking at my screen how many files do I have open? Okay now take that number and minus that from 1,024 That's how many sockets I can actually open Also because I'm doing this on my actual computer Rather than having multiple machines and having you know a secondary machine connect to this machine a true client server model That means it's even limited further now you can increase that I just haven't really invested the time and I haven't really figured out how to do that I found some posts on how to do it, but like I said, I just haven't had time on Windows however My Windows 7 box. It's What is it? It's my gaming rig Windows 7 with I think I've got 32 gigs of RAM and it's just Windows 7 professional It's nothing fancy. I Think it was capping out right around 8,000 some odd connections and the reason for that is Windows uses something called IO completion ports which is a completely different animal than how Linux and Unix and all that handle it Under the hood Mac I have not tested on yet, but I'm guessing it's probably got a hard limit similar to Linux and Unix All right, so There is this guy right here are you limit our server is running and This is what's called Siege if you don't know what Siege is you can go out and Google it maybe come on you Siege is a Linux utility Which will put strain on your website in other words, it'll put it under Siege see what I did there So once you've downloaded and install Siege, it's a very easy tool to test with and You just call it and we're gonna say 800 connections and There's the actual server port one two seven zero zero one and we're running on port two thousand because I said so If you try to run on anything lower than port one thousand twenty four You're gonna get you know warning restricted access or it just won't let your program run I think that's actually in most operating systems except for Windows 7 I can't vouch for a window 10 because I hate to say it. I really have no interest in Windows 10 right now So we're gonna put this aside and we're gonna actually Just do this So this is the Siege program hitting my little program here and you can see how it's Really just hammering it and it's getting HTTP one 404 meaning file that found because I really haven't implemented anything. It's actually just requesting the index And we're just gonna let Siege ram right you can see how it's just whipping through here We're gonna control see that and you can see the server just handle 36,849 hits availability 100 percent over 23 seconds Fail transactions zero meaning we had zero dropped whoof Our longest transaction was one second. Well, I'm sorry 1.31 seconds. Our shortest was zero So as you can tell this is a pretty beefy little server platform that we've got here This is scalable and I need to define scalable because depending on who you talk to scalability has a different meaning When I say scalable I mean you can inherit these classes and from the TCP class make an FTP or an HTTP or SSL if you really wanted to go out and get an SSH library because cute really doesn't have it built in then you could do that So I'm kind of running out of steam here. I'm a little bit tired. I switched jobs. So I'm gonna try and do a video every night I can't guarantee that because like I said when you switch jobs, you don't really know What's what's coming from one day to the next? So I Think we're gonna call it quits on this one. I know I said we'd start the project, but we're gonna start it fresh next video Questions comments concerns. I'd love to hear from you Unfortunately, I just cannot keep up with the flood that is YouTube. So go out to Facebook. There is a void realms group in Facebook I try to you know hang out in there once in a while because there's about two two fifty two hundred fifty people in there If you email me good luck my I just give up on my inbox I actually have a separate email account for business just because I can't keep up with it. I try to go in there and Chuck Chuck with the fireworks program if you're listening. I have not forgotten about you, bro. I'm going to get to it I swear I will All right, that's all for this tutorial. Thank you for watching I would say I hope you found this educational entertainment. I really haven't taught you anything That's coming in the next trial


I can't hear you What's up money geeks Mr. V here welcome to another video guys so in this video I want to talk about some important news that I've been reading As a matter of fact for important things that I've been reading and I think you guys should be aware of and so how this would impact Us moving forward as investors So before we get set of guys if you're new to the channel We took about how to earn money had to save money how to invest and build wealth So if there's something that interests you go ahead and hit that subscribe button any notification bell So you don't miss out on new content. So as you guys have seen the market has been crazy Especially tech stocks and sparks.  This is a sale. This is like your black Friday So I want you to take advantage of it. Remember back in March of last year when we had the COVID crash and I was screaming my lungs out here like buy buy buy buy like Jim creamer Then look over happened that year everything squeezed back up and just skyrocketed and people made a ton of profit So when you see opportunities like this this tip, especially in the tech space and sparks It's an opportunity for you to buy at a discount rate because you know how the market works again Guys is up is down is up is down, you know, it's gonna bounce right back. It's just a matter of time I don't anticipate the market ever crashing and going down to zero.  So let's jump on take a look at some key important things I actually read and I thought this is what sharing with you guys because The more, you know, the better for you as an investor the better Protected you are in the market and you continue to make good decisions. So the first one here is Micah Burry, I don't know if you guys remember this dude from Big Shot the guy that sounded Alert or the alarm when the housing bubble was coming up He sounded alert and nobody actually took him serious and then they made that Crazy movie and put it out there. So this guy is actually shorting Tesla. This if you can see it here He's actually shorting Tesla. He thinks that Vox wagon is gonna be Tesla in the electric space So as of December last year, he shot at Tesla that Again, he says enjoy it while it lasts. I want to find that particular quote right here So he actually says enjoy it while it lasts. So this guy I mean from his own history that we know the fact that he sounded alert and was smart about it and made a ton of money And nobody listened to him is now saying that hey watch out for Tesla because Tesla has a clear ran up 600% since 2020 so he's like guys watch out But again, he is saying this now because he has a position in Porch so if we go to porch company as a whole this is porch automobile holding So this is the one that this is a company that owns the company that owns Vox wagon and porch itself the car. So this is the main company So he actually owns the position and this company and he thinks that that company is gonna be Tesla and the race for electric vehicle again He didn't really give us any breakdown as to why he was going that way He's just saying that Vox wagon is putting in a ton of work and Investing a lot in the space. So he thinks they're better again He could be doing this to pump the stocks that he has his money in but at the same time if he's shorting Tesla Then he's gonna benefit from both angles. So you're telling us that Tesla is in the crush you're shorting it at the same time You're telling us that Vox wagon is gonna be Tesla you so that's the where it's gonna So you go short on one you go long on another one That is really double-dipping in my opinion so I mean I I love the guy I know that he was once right I'm still very a little bit on the fence here because I'm invested in Tesla and I believe in Tesla Again, this is not news. That's gonna make me want to sell my Tesla anyways So I just wanted to point it out for you guys, but this guy is blowing the alert So if we look at Tesla right now Tesla is currently trading at about 500 and And 97 dollars, I mean if we go back maybe three months ago you start winter as high as 880 No, I think that's actually got to Maybe 900 dollars at one point if I remember very well, so we got up to about 900 Oh, anyways, but right now Tesla is sitting at 597 I owned that's like I said, I'm not gonna sell it if I had money right now I'll be buying more of Tesla that would be my strategy. So that is news number one Number two here number two is Shamar who is No, the guy that actually took virgin galactic public has actually sold His stake in the company. So no again, this is not like him completely out of the company He's sold his personas taking the company But he's stick in the spark that took the company public is still is still with is still there So he's not like completely out but the fact that he's I mean they used to word dump He's actually selling out and the reason he said is because he wants to take the money and invest it in other Opportunities that are geared to us fighting Climate change. So that's why he is selling out of this one But again, I'm sorry if you are one of the guys people invest in this company because they trust you and now you're dumping and really Getting completely out. It's like that is a red flag. So if you can see it did actually impact the price of the stock We can see here as right now sitting at about 27 dollars But it did pull back all the way to like 24 So that would have been a great opportunity for anybody that's not invested in this particular stock to get in as a matter of fact Even at 27 to me very virgin galactic Yeah, the only issue right now is they are not profitable But it's a company that is moving towards profitability So and I trust the money management there So this is one that if you don't have a position in you can definitely open a position Like I said these 24 down here would have been a great place for you But under 30 you're still not no wrong because if we just go back maybe three months ago This thing was up to about 60 dollars. So just to give you guys some context So that is buying it at a really really bagging price. There's something I want you guys to be aware of then The last one that I have here is Kathy Wood. So Kathy would act innovation fund That's actually dropped 12% for the week again here They declared so wiping out all the gains that she had for 2021 so far again If you take an invest you can see here right here.  So if you wanted to you say, okay under 110. That's my comfort zone I'm gonna open a position here. So you start looking on that 110 You say, okay, if you wanted to buy let's say a hundred shares You say on that 110 when it gets to one one or nine or 108 you pick up 10 or 15 shares It drops down to 107 106 to pick up another 10 you be dropping to 105 You pick up another 10 just like that in there that way But you're not gonna sit there and think that you can time the market and find the bottom because nobody can really time The market and find the exact bottom. So this is something that would benefit you in the future So there you go guys Those are some of the key things I wanted to bring to you guys again, Tesla the fact that they're trying Michael Burry is trying to short Tesla and say Tesla is gonna crash and burn Again, Virgin Galactic which armored actually selling some of the his position a huge position in that company And then we carefully with our innovation actually dropping out about 12 13% Just in two weeks. So again the fact that those things are happening We can understand because the tech sector were one of the sectors that actually bounced by really really fast when we had Covet crash. So tech sector just didn't even just bounce but actually took a double bounce and went to the moon So a lot of those companies that are not kind of got in some that went public the valuation of this company Just went crazy. So this is kind of like a little correction just to tell people like hey guys There's still ground zero this thing. It's just been floating out there. Let's calm down and realize that this there's reality Just not just just floating around like that. So that is the reason why I think we're seeing this pull back Especially again in the tech sector because if you look in other sectors, they're pretty stable I looked at the defense about a sector with Bowen with radion with lucky Martin You're sitting pretty good. They're not hurting as much as the tech sector is hurting So you can actually see that so again a great opportunity for you to take a step back and look at your portfolio and say My really covered it might diversify enough in my portfolio so that you can give me some balance So again, we look at that diversification. You're thinking about tech companies. That's cool. You talk about maybe defense That's cool. We come out. Maybe financiers. That's cool.  That's cool Maybe retail maybe airlines So if you can find one of those and can make you a solid portfolio, that would be a good way to go So again, this is an opportunity for you to take a step back again I'm really assess what you have and where you want to go and see how that can help you the tech sector again Guys is a winner. I'm heavy tech. I'm not even gonna just I'm not gonna apologize for it I love the tech industry. I love Innovations or when I see those companies coming up, I always like jump in and invest in Strong good companies, but again at the same time you want to make sure that your long-term portfolio Each other to cover it so one way that you can actually help yourself if you don't want to pick those individual stocks guys And I've talked about is a lot on the channel is for you to invest in ETFs that does that coverage for you so you can find an ETF that covers maybe Manufacturing an ETF that covers tech and ETF that covers maybe Airlines so find those different ETFs and then you buy four or five ETFs and you're covered in the entire sector so that when the prices Plumb it like this in one sector those other sectors stay sustainable So that's another way that you could be thinking them and going about it So let me know in the comment section what you guys think about this news Do you think oh that doesn't really matter? Tesla is gonna be Tesla and do what Tesla does best or you think like boy if Tesla is crashing The entire market is coming with it. Let me know in the comment section if you're new to the channel We took about how to earn money how to save money how to invest and build wealth So that's something that interests you go ahead and hit that subscribe button and a notification bell So you don't miss out on new content also guys if you're looking to get started with investing We both is our broker of choice links in the description if you sign up and deposit hundred dollars You get some free stocks and as always guys do your due diligence.


Hello, I'm Navree and this is the family business. I'm Clay Nanglish, you know what time it is. I'm Money Bad, my friend. We doing perks in the VIP. Man, you gotta, bro. We gotta talk about the show first. You don't go straight to the business, right?  I told you first, as Zainis. I told you first, Zainis family business tour. You know what it is, tickets, 85soundshow.com. You get the tickets for the meet and greet afterwards.   We poppin' pert. No, no, no, no. As we poppin' everything. Ladies, ladies, just come to the meet and greet and it's really gonna be a greet and meet. It ain't different. Huh? It's gonna be a greet and meet. I'mma play a part of the y'all.  I'mma come back there to the VIP to meet and greet. Oh, man, it's family business, right? We play in Spain, you know? Domino, drinking plenty liquor. The family business tour and what Money Bag does is completely separate.  He's more like an independent contractor. I'm a sole proprietor. I'm not.