But you have to be willing to scrutinize yourself, put yourself under the micro soap. Micro soap. Did I do a tiny baby soap? The micro scope. And analyze yourself and work through it and do the work.


cannot have miracles in my life if I have chaos in my mind I can't have miracles in my life if I have chaos in my mind Romans chapter 12 verse 2 says the following that we are transformed by the renewing of our mind most people believe this myth the reason why my mind and my heart is so negative and is full of doubt full of insecurity full of hurt and full of pain is because my life has been difficult and if you will tell someone your life story of what you've been through all the hurts all the rejection all the abuse all the betrayal you went through and then you will share how negative you are a typical person will say make sense because you are convinced and so am I at times the reason why my mind is so negative and full of defeat is because my life is in a chaos God said it's the other way around see we are convinced it's because of what I've been through that's exactly why I am the way I am and we use our past as an excuse to justify the mess and the chaos in our head and in our heart and by no respect do I mean no sympathy to the things that we went through in our life every ship goes through boisterous waters every single day but the reason why they survived is because the waters do not go inside of them it is a choice to have a negative mind it does not happen by chance it is a choice and the first myth you have to break is this I cannot be positive I cannot be at peace I cannot be filled with God's light why because my life is in a chaos and if God wants me to walk with this spring in my step if God wants me to have this God confidence if God wants me to believe in him in me if God wants me to do that he needs to change my life means he needs to bring a son in my life and God says if you want the son allow me to change you on the side first the way God works he doesn't change your life first he changes your mind first if he changes your life without changing your mind it's a matter of time where life will line up to the level of our mind because somebody say man the Bible says in Proverbs 23 7 for as a man things in his heart so is he it's interesting that it doesn't say as a man is so he thinks in his heart the Bible doesn't say as men's finances as men's relationships as men's life is so he thinks in his heart the Bible says actually it's the opposite as he thinks in himself so is his life my friends it's the other way around where your mind goes your life will follow say where my mind goes so where my mind goes my life will follow say my mind is the workshop for the Holy Spirit can somebody say amen so do not excuse yourself and simply say well it's just been my life has been hard God can understand that's one of the reasons why I allow all of these things to come inside


Team keep it clean. The Ravens had a presser today that I myself was extremely interested in. Why? Not because it featured Don Wink, Martindale, the Ravens defensive coordinator, not even because it featured Raven starting center, Bradley Bozeman. And if y'all ever listen to the Juski skips when he does a little country voice, it sounds just like Bradley Bozeman. I just realized that today. But anyway, this presser featured Greg Roman, the Ravens offensive coordinator who has just been under a lot of fire from Ravens fans, from media, from just a lot of people. And I really appreciated that. Every question that we wanted to know was asked today. Now, of course, everything, the only thing that matters now is how you respond in game. Cause talk is talk, but we're gonna start seeing on Sunday. But anyway, let's see what Greg Roman talked about. So it was very interesting to me just how Greg Roman started off the presser because with what he said, you know what, let's just say it. He started off the presser by saying, our guys play 174 plays in four days. So he's talking about how this break was good for him. So in my eyes, that kind, that was like Greg Roman kind of being like, all right, well, this is part of the reason why we just didn't execute good because we had played so many plays in a Vikings game. And then we had to turn around four days later and play the dolphins on Thursday night football. And maybe the guys were just so tired. That's what I got from it. Because again, it's not always what you say is how you say it. And to start off with that, I was like, okay, Giro, I see you big dog. Anyway, he said that Lamar, Lamar was feeling better, but he didn't have an update on him. He also talked about that in the first quote, cover zero.  They asked him about it and he said that we've seen it, but we weren't sharp. And he said that they saw a ton of it last game and against the dolphins, of course. And he said that they're getting a lot of full speed work at it, but something else that he said that was very interesting to me. He said that this week, they're getting a lot of full speed work at it. But he said last week, they didn't really get to get that much again when you go from Sunday to Thursday. So he threw that out there like twice in the first like two minutes. He threw it out there twice about that Sunday to Thursday game sort of as a reason why maybe things weren't looking so good. But he did say, if people throw it at you, you have to have an answer. And that was the biggest thing that a lot of us were questioning. Like where was the Ravens answer? This was a question that was asked all game because the dolphins, they were sending it. They were sending it, but the Ravens, they just simply never responded, which was unfortunate, but it is what it is. Now he was also asked about them getting plays in so late. And boy, this is a question that we all have ourselves to like, why? And he said that Lamar is actually pretty good at getting to play in. He said that it's up to him to get the plays in quicker. I said, okay, Giro, taking that accountability for that. All right, cool, cool, cool. Now when he talked about the dolphins game, I did really like this one. He said that that's a straight to DVD performance. So meaning that like, if there was a movie that you knew was coming out, but they were like, we don't think this would do so good in a theater. I don't think many people are gonna wanna watch that. Straight to DVD. Well, nowadays on demand, but we got what you were saying, Giro. He said that there was some uncharacteristic things that happened in that game. Oh, you don't say. Ravens offense, like literally not moving the ball at all. Yeah, that's very uncharacteristic. But the slow start, no, that's in their character this year. It's funny because one of my guys in a video that we put out yesterday about the potential of Devon Duvenay taking some snaps in the backfield and that running back as a scat back and whatnot, them just using him in different ways. He was like, oh man, he's like, Ravens would definitely, this would definitely say identity crisis if Ravens were playing players out of position. And I responded to him, well Ravens, they don't even have an identity right now. They don't have an identity. So anyway, he said, when you have games like that and everybody does, he said, it's all about how you respond. Now again, it's not always about what you say, it's about how you say it, but in this case, it was a mix of both because he was letting it known. He was letting it be known like, hey, I'm not the only one that has a bad game. I'm not the only one, we not the only one to have bad games. It happens to everybody and that is true. It's just like what we say about the players too. Just because a player has one bad game, doesn't make them a bad player. So, okay G-Roll, I see you big though. Anyway, he also talked about how the pass protection is something that they want to constantly get better at. He said the dolphins, now this one, like, this one was frustrating for me, this next part, because he said the dolphins didn't do anything new. He said the dolphins didn't do anything new and said that everything that they did, they've shown on film before. So when he said that, that was frustrating for me because it's like, okay, if dolphins didn't do anything new, if this whole cover zero and all that blitz talk, if that wasn't anything new, then how come? And again, he said that they didn't do anything new and everything that they did, they've shown on film before. If that's the case, why did, no answer for it all, no answer, running back one more time, no answer for it all game, I couldn't get with that part. Like, if he would have been like, if he would have been like, all right, dolphins, they did some stuff that they had never done on film before in this game. Okay, cool. But if you're coming out and saying that, and the way he said it, it wasn't anything new. It wasn't anything new that they did. Everything that they did, they've shown on film before. If that was the case, how come ravens, they have nothing for it? Literally nothing. See, this has been a big problem with the ravens. Now, overall, the adjusting has been better because they've been adjusting in the second half a lot, more times than none. But the late adjusting, and in this game, the no adjusting, but it's the late adjusting that has been a frustration in the slow starts, but we're not done. We ain't done talking about slow starts because Giro wasn't done either. He was also asked about, oh, real quick, he said they'll definitely see that defense again, like from other teams, like the cover zero and all that, the way that the dolphins played the ravens. And he said that it's what the ravens do from here moving forward that matters. And that's true. That's true. You're six and three right now. All right, you lost to the dolphins, okay. The way you lost to the dolphins was a big yikes, but okay, you lost. Now it's about the bounce back game. So he was asked about Tyson Williams getting more carries and Nate McCrary too. I said, oh, who was that reporter that said that? These reporters been bringing up our boy Tyson a whole lot and I love it. I love it. But when he was asked about those two, he brought up Levy on bail. He brought up Levy on bail and said how well, he talked about how well Levy on bail did. And if y'all caught it, it was kind of weird to me because the way he spoke about Levy on bail was like Levy on bail is still with the team. Like he didn't even take a flight back home or something. That's the way I got. And then he said that, oh, he could possibly get more opportunities in the future. It was just, that part was really weird to me. I don't know if any of y'all that watched that part and saw it, like if y'all got the same vibe, but that's what I got for it. The way he spoke, it sounded like Levy on bail was right there in the facility. But anyway, and then with Tyson, he was like, oh, with Tyson with the name McCreary. He didn't mention it by name, but he was like, oh yeah, those are the guys' options too. So to get that little generalized answer. So don't know what to expect. So we'll see. Excuse me, he said, do you really? Oh, cause this was one of my favorite parts. Like when Mark Andrews talked about it, yes, it's almost like this back and forth type of thing. What Mark Andrews told y'all in the presser yesterday when Mark, and it was in our video that we put up earlier today. In the presser yesterday when Mark Andrews talked about, when he was asked about the no huddle, you saw him sort of getting giddy. You saw him like laughing and stuff and smiling. And you could tell it was, it's something that he would love to do. You could tell. But then he was like, we have full confidence in Greg Roman. So he kind of stopped any like, cause you know Greg Roman, they don't really run a no huddle like that. That's not their thing. Until it's like late in the game and they really need something before the two minute war. I mean, before the halftime too, but it's just, it's not something that they do. But when he talked about it, you could tell Mark Engel. I mean, not Mark Engel, yikes. Mark Andrews would love it. But again, he kept the peace, which is good. And he was like, but we had full confidence in Giro. So Mark Andrews almost did a little deflection himself. He was like, oh, we have full confidence in Giro. So then when Giro was asked about it today, he said, do you really want to run your best runs early on in the game? Or do you want to wear the other team down a bit? And then this part he said, do you want to run no huddle early in the game? Or do you want to wear the defense down a bit?  He shut that early no huddle talk down. He shut that early up tempo talk down. And Giro was defending himself in the way that he runs this offense. So I put it on Twitter, I said, I respect Giro for how he's defending himself. I respect that. But he did say some very, some questionable things. Again, my biggest thing in this presser today was when he said everything that the Dolphins did was nothing new and it's all on film. They've seen it on film before. That was my biggest problem with this whole thing. Because again, if you've seen it before, then what happened? Anyway, I did not catch Bradley Bozeman's part. Bradley Bozeman's part, I was editing some questions from subscribers and working on some other stuff in the background. So I listened, but I didn't really listen. But I did catch Wink. And Wink was talking about with Justin Fields. He said, mobile quarterbacks, they are the way of the NFL now. They are the way. He said, Fields has a tremendous talent. He can throw the ball really well and has nice velocity. And he actually said, he'll be one of the guys that you'll be talking about in Super Bowls. I said, okay now Wink, high praise. I know what y'all do though. I know these coaches, they like playing mind games. They like to build the other teams up so they can try to tear them down. Anyway, he said with the mental mistakes, because somebody asked him how do they correct the mental mistakes? He said, work, work. Straight up like that. And he said with the mistakes, he said it's not even that it's repeat mistakes. And it's like my God, Josh Hoffman brought up a really good point yesterday on Twitter. He talked about how with a lot of Ravens fans, like there's a lot of people whether it be on Twitter or on YouTube, on this and that. Some people will be like, you fans, fans don't know more than the coaches do.  And nobody ever says that the fans know more than the coaches. Well, some fans will say that when they get really upset. But just because a fan has an opinion on something, it does not make their opinion wrong. And it does not supersede the coaches' opinion. Well, obviously it doesn't because the coaches, the coach, they're on the team. But people, they gotta stop discrediting what a lot of fans say. Because fans, a lot of times you all see stuff that's clear as day. Obviously we're not in the meeting rooms. We're not at practice. Well, some of y'all are because y'all got the media passes and all that. But a lot of us are not in the film room. We're not in practice. We're not behind the scenes. So we don't know everything that goes into the game plan and whatnot. What goes on is the stuff we don't see. We don't know about that. But at the same time, a lot of y'all know football. A lot of y'all understand football. And a lot of you can see some stuff that is just clear as day when we watch the games. Some things that the Ravens should do. Some things that maybe the Ravens shouldn't do. And we all have our opinions on it. But something that my guy Josh was saying yesterday was like, man, fans have really been on it when it's come to the Ravens recently. They have really been on it. And it's stuff that has ended up coming to fruition with the Ravens. So with that being said, y'all keep on bringing that heat. Y'all keep on letting it be known how you feel about this and that and the third. Because a lot of times, again, it makes sense. It makes sense. And real quick, do not let anybody discount your opinion just because you don't work for the Ravens. Don't do that.  Oh man, Ravens would never do that. What you're saying, though, who cares? You don't know what you're talking about. Just like, no, everybody got their own opinion, which they should. Now, some of the stuff that he mentioned was, he said, what the fans have been saying for the longest and the Ravens have just started doing it and they see that it's working. He said, get a serious vet wide receiver. And he said it ended up happening like two years late. It should have happened earlier in Lamar's career, but it happened two years late with Sammy Watkins. And then he also said, let Freeman get more carries. And you see, when he's been getting more carries, he's been doing more damage. Instead of them just sharing it, here, you get some. Here, even though it was leaving on bail, they were force feeding that guy. They were really, because again, I know they were just trying to make it. They really wanted it to work. And I understand that, but it just wasn't. He said, let Orlando Brown start at right tackle. And he said that was four weeks late and only because of injury. And we remember that his rookie season.  He needs to be the starter. And I remember it was so funny. I remember one guy specifically in the comment section. I don't remember what his name was because he's long gone and blocked by now, but he used to tell me in videos back then when Orlando Brown was a rookie. So back in 2019, no, 18, no, 19, 18, 18, 18, 18. In 2018, he was like, man, what are you talking about? Why do you think Orlando Brown Jr. should be the starter? The Ravens coaches, they know what they're talking about. A lot more than you do. That's it. Or you are just some guy on YouTube. You don't know what you're talking about, man. And he used to say this every single week. Every single time I would talk about it, he'd say the same thing. And then when James, James heard struggle now, he wasn't the worst, but James heard struggle. And then unfortunately he got hurt. So then they inserted Orlando Brown Jr. to the starting lineup and look what happened. He did a phenomenal job. And that guy was long gone after that. Anyway, he also talked about letting Dobbins and Gus get the carries. And we remember last season, we were all saying that, like, why are y'all force feeding this thing of Mark Ingram? Mark Ingram is obviously the weak link, unfortunately. And Gus and JK, when they touching the ball, they moving. They moving. But when Mark Ingram gets the ball, it's like, oh, everything's sold out. And maybe he wasn't fully healthy last year. Maybe he wasn't fully healthy. But it just, we saw that with the Ravens, they were trying to make everybody happy, keep everybody happy. And us fans were saying, no, don't do that. But then when they finally stopped doing it, guess what happened? Run Gang took off. So another thing, stop blitzing my homes all the time. He said, one or two years late. And with that, whenever we would play my homes, they always show that graphic. Oh, my homes is, he has like 12 touchdowns and no interceptions against the blitz this year. My homes has like 95 QBR against the blitz this year. So we were all thinking, okay, how about we cut back on the blitz into my homes? And then even in the games, they tried a little bit. Okay, I understand you want to try a little bit. It's not working. Let's take it back, scale it back. But no, the Ravens would keep blitzing everybody in my homes.  And my homes would burn them every time. But then finally this year, finally this, finally this year, they said, nope. And they showed that blueprint. And so many teams have just not been blitzing my homes and they've been having a lot of success against the chiefs. So Ravens fans, they, y'all are smart and y'all are on it. So shout out to y'all. Now back to Wink. He talked about how to mistakes on defense. The mistake that the Ravens have been making, they haven't been repeat mistakes. He said they've been new ones. Cause he talked about, first it was attack and this is everything that we were saying too. He said, first it was the tackling. But he said, okay, then they fixed that. But then it was mental mistakes. So again, said it's just gonna take work to get that fixed. He talked about how Justin Ellis, Jelly, he's been a stud. I don't know why I got the hiccups now. And he said he's happy for him. And with Wink, you could definitely see how he is just such a player's coach. You could tell like, and you always heard about how the guys, they love Wink. Like you always hear about that a lot. How they just love Wink. You hear that a lot with hardball too. But you hear it a lot with Wink, like defensive guys, like even when they were leaving, they always high praises for Wink. But you could hear that like when he speaks, how he speaks and you could really tell like, he loves him some football, man. And he loves some defense. Like just, yeah. So anyway, he talked about Kalea's Campbell, how he's playing at a pro bowl level again. He sort of echoed John Hardball's comments from yesterday on Kalea's Campbell. And he said it's nice to have someone you can count on day in and day out. Agreed. And he was asked how he balances the defense or how he balances when the defense plays well in certain spots. Like when they do a good job, it's like, okay. Versus how they play bad and others. And he's like, oh, okay. But he said those are conversations that have to be had. He said he has to have those talks. He said, it's not easy conversations but you have to have them and that's true. You do. As much as you're gonna let somebody know, hey, you do a great job at that. You do a phenomenal job at that. Oh man, you're so good at that. Oh man, this is really, you do this really well. You also need to let them know what they don't do so well. It has to be balance. It can't just be all praises and oh man, everything's so great. And it also can't be oh man, you just terrible at everything. Wow. No, it should be balance and respectfully balance. So shout out to Wing for that. And then it was pretty short. I know we were talking for a while. We were probably talking longer than Wing was, but Wing's, his part of the press was pretty short. And then once they were like, they had no more questions, he said, oh, you guys are nice. So this was a very, like I said, a very interesting press. I mean, Raven's always keep it interesting for the most part with these presses. But it was nice to hear directly, directly from the leader of the coordination of offense and the leader of the coordination of defense. So now against the bears, it's time to see how these guys respond. Team Keep It Clean, I appreciate y'all. I love y'all so much. Thank you so much for listening and thank you for supporting. Shout out to all the Team Keep It Clean patrons. Appreciate y'all showing extra support. If you wanna become a Team Keep It Clean patron, you can go to patreon.com slash engraving vids. And if you don't want to, that's fine too. Don't feel bad. Don't know why I still love you. Team Keep It Clean, we got a lot. Today's Thursday, oh man, I don't even know how I'm gonna be able to fit everything in before the game on Sunday, but we got a lot to talk about. We got a lot of videos. So turn, if you got your notifications turned on, keep them on. If you don't have them turned on, please turn them on because I don't want you to miss anything. I love y'all so much. I hope y'all have a great day today and we out.


I didn't see the channel in Russia. I didn't feel it until, you know, we pulled over like 20 minutes back from the house, downtown, and they in fame. Them say, get out the car real quick. You bleeding from your side. I'm like, really? You didn't even realize you was bleeding. I didn't realize, come on, homie. He's got a stroke in the face with a pool ball. We on boss talk one on one. Something like that, because from what I heard, you got hit by a bullet that wasn't for you down in that, let's talk about that for a minute. I want to talk about how that night was. I mean, break that down to me.  That's what I'm saying. Just break it all the way down. Mostly all together. And then I want to know what was going on in your mind during that time. Okay. You know, I brought the whole gang with me. They was living with us. So we, we brought them with me and fame to the show. You know what I'm saying? Darrell was helping us and everything back then. But like, Darrell had moved us into our own spot. So we all went to this show like right on the outskirts of Dallas in the country. What was it with that? Not gonna say the same. No, I don't say the same. It wasn't that. I ain't gonna say the same. I don't even remember the same. It's still, it's still a lot of. Up in there. It's an open case still, but uh. It's still open case. That's not a long time. It's not an open case, but it's just like the nigga that did, he went to jail and we. I mean, I'm still going to get him though.  I'm not saying. This is going to go to jail. This is going to go to jail for four pounds of crack. Yeah, yeah. Wow. This is going to jail for four pounds of crack. All right, let's talk about it. I want to know. The nigga that let it happen went to high school with me, right? Okay. I'm going to get him. So just tell me like what, what he was shooting at him? Nah, like he was on our side at the show. He was all good.  I don't know some random stuff. Then I saw them getting each other's face. Yeah.  They was in each other's face. I'm like, what are they doing? So you know what I'm saying? Fame was like, let's go, let's go. But me being who I am, I'm like, nah, so fame follow me over there too. You know what I'm saying? Then it went down after that. Like I started swinging, swinging pool balls, pool sticks at them. After you had got shot? Nah, they was right there before. They was trying to reach in their pocket and grab it. Oh yeah. And he trying to stop them. Yeah. I'm like, wow, wow. Hidden there with some rock bottles, all type of stuff. And then we went outside to the car. We got in the car. You know what I'm saying? Like 20 niggas follow us. They got that straight. I was like, yeah, yeah. You know what I'm saying? We run into the car matter of fact. Then they just start letting off fireworks at us. And you were in the car with him? Nah, we was in a different car. I had that fire in the car. But they told us it was a teen show so don't come in the club with a gun. And it was a teen show at that time. It was a teen show at that time. But it was the older niggas in that whole hating like they big brother.  And even then before that, I performed with guns in my pocket. Like, I don't play like that. What did you, where were your mind stayed at when you got hit? Like when it, when that car, I didn't say, I didn't feel it until we pulled over like 20 minutes back from the house downtown.  You bleeding from your side. I'm like, really? You didn't even realize you was bleeding. I didn't realize, cause my homie, he just got struck in the face with a pool ball. My homie feel the real. Got hit in the face. So I'm like, damn, we got to take him to the hospital. I ain't know. I was going to the hospital for something. Yeah. And luckily it didn't hit no main artery. It ain't crazy, man. Now I'm supposed to be paralyzed right now. Really? So because of that shot and God made a way. How long did it take for you to start walking again? Cause I walked out the hospital the next day. You had to show the next day? And you did the show. I did the show on Crutus. But you got to realize, two partners around there, niggas got motivation from different places back then. I remember back then I took a, they could get a shot that he got to go do to the studio. Yeah, like we got to get to the studio immediately until niggas got hit and I'm still here. You got to put it in the song. Yup. He ain't sitting there, I can promise you. That's the way we got back then. Am I right? Yeah, we was just trying to stick to it. We was like, you know what? We ain't going to even rap about it. Let's just keep making dance music. You know what I'm saying? You weren't able to dance at that time. I never, I always had dance. Yeah. But I did. No, I'm talking with a Crutus. No, I'm just saying. Oh, okay, okay, gotcha. Now he hit the song, Crutus, man. Oh yeah, not at that show. You're right, I couldn't bust no more at that show. You could throw a crutch up, though, if you wanted to just a little bit. They didn't want us to make it, but God did. I like it. Motherfuckers, I didn't fall off. We fell back. It's a deal between falling off and falling back. You know what I'm saying? Well, you got smoke sometimes. I'm glad you said that. I could never figure out the exact words.   Ooh, ooh, go to a different state, let the sun shine in it. Old school niggas say it's a minor setback for a major comeback. Yeah, we on Boss Talk 101.


So, welcome everybody to this ECB Cleveland Fed Conference on inflation, driver and dynamics. So I think Christiane is right. This is a good time to talk about inflation. And so this is also what I'm going to do in my introductory remarks. So as you know, Euro area headline inflation has reached 3.4 percent in September, according to the most recent flash estimate, which is its highest annual rate in more than a decade and notably above the ECB's new symmetric target of 2 percent to be attained over the medium term. The recent rise in inflation has intensified the debate about the most likely future evolution of price pressures. And this stands in sharp contrast to the developments over the past decade when structural headwinds prevented inflation from converging towards our target. The timing of this conference on inflation drivers and dynamics could therefore hardly be more fitting. I will begin my remarks by discussing how the current spike in inflation can in large part be attributed to temporary pandemic related factors that are likely to dissipate in the medium term. Then I will elaborate on the headwinds and tailwinds that may contribute to the evolution of inflation over the medium term, linking them to research that will be presented at this conference. And there is actually a somewhat longer version of this speech, which you will find on the web. This will also explain the title of the speech. Unfortunately, I only have 15 minutes, so I won't be able to explain that. So over most of the past decade, inflation has persistently fallen short of the ECB's inflation aim. Both headline and co-inflation averaged only around one percent, as you can see on this slide. Moreover, inflation repeatedly surprised on the downside relative to our in-house staff projections before the pandemic. Subdue to inflation dynamics were driven by cyclical and structural factors, which created sustained headwinds for underlying price pressures. The pandemic has added short-term disruptions to these longer-term trends. Initially, inflation declined substantially in 2020, with rates temporarily entering negative territory. Much of that decline was attributable to specific pandemic-related temporary factors, including a substantial decline in commodity prices and the temporary cut in the German VAT rates. With the onset of the recovery, inflation picked up rapidly. In fact, the current spike in inflation owes much to the continued impact of those same factors that pushed down inflation earlier. More than half of measured headline inflation in the euro area is currently due to rising energy prices and to the reversal of the German VAT cut, as can be seen on this slide. Two further pandemic-related factors are also having a temporary, if somewhat more durable, impact on inflation. First, continued supply chain disruptions are pushing up produced prices due to supply and demand imbalances, thus feeding into non-energy industrial goods inflation, which has been exceptionally strong recently, as you can see on this slide on the left-hand side. Second, the reopening of the economy has pushed up services inflation, in particular in high-contact sectors, as seen on the right-hand chart. Even though these pandemic-related developments are currently dominating media headlines, prices are high that above-target inflationary pressures will subside over time. In our baseline projections, headline inflation is forecast to fall back below our medium-term inflation target of 2% in the medium-term, as shown on this slide. However, it would be premature to assert that current price dynamics will fully subside next year. There are various sources of uncertainty that might entail more persistent inflationary pressures. It is also possible that the pandemic has altered a reinforced structural trend, thus affecting inflation dynamics in the years to come. Against the background of the research contributions presented at this conference, I would like to highlight two types of uncertainty that will determine whether current inflationary trends will turn out to be more persistent. First, the current uptick in inflation might result in a more enduring upward revision of inflation expectations. And second, the pandemic may have triggered behavioral changes that alter rigidity at microeconomic levels, such as wage and price stickiness, having an impact on the slope of the Phillips curve. Let me begin with inflation expectations. The standard prescription for monetary policy is to look through temporary supply-side shocks and to only take policy action if inflation expectations and wage bargaining give rise to second round effects posing a threat to price stability. The difficulty with this prescription is that aggregate inflation expectations are unobservable. One method is to use market-based measures of inflation compensation. Immediately prior to the pandemic, market-based medium-term inflation expectations shown on the left-hand slide stood at only 1.1%, substantially below our medium-term inflation target. With the onset of the pandemic, they declined to nearly 0.5% in March 2020. Thus, the recent increase in market-based inflation expectations to levels closer to our target is a welcome development. It signals that investors have become more sanguine about the euro area inflation outlook without pointing so far to fears of more persistent inflation overshoots. And since inflation expectations help to determine the real interest rates, higher inflation expectations reinforce the degree of policy accommodation in an environment of low nominal yields and thus contribute to lifting inflation towards our new symmetric medium-term target of 2%. Similar to market-based measures, survey-based measures of inflation expectations also shown on the left-hand side have exhibited a notable upward lift in the wake of the recovery from the pandemic, but they also remain below our target. In other words, there is currently no indication that elevated inflation rates are becoming entrenched in medium- and longer-term inflation expectations in the euro area, entailing risks for price stability. On the contrary, recent developments across indicators suggest that investors and professional forecasters are increasingly internalizing our new monetary policy strategy, as well as our recently revised forward guidance bringing us closer to our inflation target. In an environment of measurable movements in inflation expectations, insights regarding their role in monetary policy transmission remain crucial for central banks. In the post-pandemic context, it is particularly relevant whether changes in measures of expectations indicate a more fundamental change that may durably impact the transmission of our monetary policy. So how reliable are surveys of professional forecasters, for example? One of the conference papers identifies an intriguing mechanism whereby even rational forecasters might report a biased measure of their true expectations, with individual forecasts overreacting to private information, while underreacting to public information. Moreover, aggregating inflation expectations can be misleading. Probability distributions of inflation expectations derived from option prices, shown on the right-hand side, show a clear shift in recent months. Following a long period of market-based distributions of inflation expectations being skewed to the downside, the probability of option-implied inflation rates above 2 percent over the next five years has recently reached its highest level since 2012 at 40 percent. Such distributions are likely to matter even more in the case of households and businesses who often let accurate knowledge of the official inflation rate or the central bank's inflation target, resulting in a wide distribution of inflation expectations. Indeed, new survey evidence in one of the conference papers confirms that inflation expectations of U.S. firms are far from anchored. For central banks, these findings highlight the importance of communicating our monetary policy objectives effectively. One conference paper addresses this issue by showing that central bank communication focusing on the goals of monetary policy actions is more effective than communication focusing on monetary policy instruments. The second source of uncertainty that I would like to discuss today relates to potential behavioral changes induced by the pandemic. Microeconomic rigidities, such as those stemming from wage and price-setting behavior, have profound implications for the transmission of monetary policy because they affect the location and the slope of the Phillips curve. Model simulations and recent empirical evidence indicate that the slope of the Phillips curve may have flattened considerably over recent decades, a finding that continues to generate substantial debate in academia and in policy circles. Such a change would have significant implications for the conduct of monetary policy. However, like inflation expectations, the slope of the Phillips curve is not directly observable and estimates differ depending on the models used. Research presented at this conference suggests that one has to be careful in order to avoid confusing a changing slope of the Phillips curve with a shift in inflation expectations. A further key structural determinant of the slope of the Phillips curve is the rate at which firms reset prices, affecting the responsiveness of the price level to changes in economic activity. Some have argued that low inflation rates have reduced the rate of price resets, since firms are less likely to find themselves significantly away from their optimal price. However, research conducted by the ECB and the Prisma Network on micro-level price data challenges this claim, finding no noticeable slowdown in the rate of price resets shown on this slide. This research is representative of a wider shift in the literature, which increasingly investigates the macroeconomic impact of heterogeneous firm-level decisions. This growing evidence, for example, that the aggregate change in the price level is not only determined by the average rate of price resets, but rather by the entire distribution of price adjustments. One conference paper written under the Prisma Network finds evidence that the probability of price changes indeed depends on the extent of mispricing both for the United States and for the Euro area, as indicated by the V-shape on this slide. Firms further away from the optimal reset price are indeed more likely to change prices. However, the paper also shows that the probability of adjustment in response to monetary and credit shocks does not depend on the extent of mispricing. Hence, the paper finds little evidence that selection contributes significantly to the overall inflation response to an aggregate shock. From a policymaker's perspective, such findings generate constructive input for our policy discussions on the transmission of monetary policy. So let me conclude. Current inflationary pressures in the Euro area are driven by pandemic-related factors that can be expected to largely fade out over the course of next year. Overreacting to such short-term volatility would be harmful and risk jeopardizing the ongoing economic recovery, which is why the ECB's monetary policy remains focused on fulfilling its medium-term price stability mandate. Nonetheless, significant uncertainty remains as to how persistent some of the current price pressures will prove to be. The ECB therefore continues to carefully monitor inflationary developments in the Euro area with a particular focus on second-round effects. The cyclical and specific pandemic factors will increasingly be overlaid by structural changes. Structural factors such as globalization, the fight against climate change, demographic trends, and digitalization are likely to continue to affect prices and price setting and hence the transmission of our monetary policy, but the direction is still unclear. High-quality academic research into the underlying drivers of inflation dynamics hence remains a vital input for our monetary policy deliberations. I therefore very much look forward to hearing more about the insightful papers and novel research findings that will be presented at this conference. Thank you very much for the organizers for having me to give these introductory remarks and for setting up such a fascinating and interesting program. I wish you a very good conference. Thank you.


Hey Co-Friends, I'm Bianca Renee and you are watching Bianca Renee today and today We got a package from bounce curl again, shall we Are you ready to bounce? Why I'm excited is because inside this they gave us a bunch of their new brushes and Combs, but the one I want to try today is the one that went viral This is the define Styling brush and I'm gonna show you how cool it is in a second But there's also a flexible detangle brush, which I meant to use today in the shower But bounce curls conditioners so good. I didn't need a brush You know, I wish finger detangle less. I need to get a brush. This is their smoothing brush That'll be good for like slick down styles. This is their styling comb You know pick on the end for parting styles and a small little volume comb Which will be used like as a pick, but let's talk about The star of the show. Let's take it out of the packaging. This brush is so intuitive And I just love that it's finally giving Denman brush a run for its money This brush was literally made with curls in mine Because it has these little ridges on the side because you know when we brush and then we go like this And we like clump things now our hair can go through the sides. The sides has a purpose Unlike the Denman brush, so I'm gonna style my hair today and we're gonna give it a try for the first time So this brush is says right here It's made to enhance your waves curls and coils this innovative three-in-one brush effortlessly Smooths and to find your hair while preventing frizz. They also didn't just put like a regular Handle on here. They put a point so now you also can make sections for all my section people. This is for you Genius now I already washed my hair this morning using the bounce curl gentle clarifying shampoo. This is a great job I forgot that a little goes a long way. I always use too much of this and I use these super smooth cream conditioner My hair blighted through the tangles were no problem, but now let's style using I Usually just use the cream gel on its own Because since I'm getting the cream I'm getting the moisture as well But let me add a little bit of the moisture balance leave-in conditioner treatment and primer To the curls not a like am I gonna actually use a dime size today? That'd be strange a little bit of this especially to the ends Get the curls ready for styling. Okay, little and I'm gonna have to section today guys. This is gonna Give me out of my comfort zone again because I Don't section and I don't really use a brush Especially to style since my curls are married to find already Let's see what let's see how much more Definition I get from this clip this up in my Bianca clip grabbing the bounce curl light hold cream gel all bounce curl products are sulfate paraben silicone free The owner of the company has curly hair herself. She is like an actual chemist She went to school for this I just really trust her when it comes to ingredients and creating things that are actually made for curly hair like this brush Was absolutely made by somebody that styles their curly hair every day Like you could just tell from every little detail about this. So let's give it a go. Let's see if I do this, right? Maybe even smaller Dare I say smaller? All right product is in Taking my brush going from the root and curling it and pulling it over oh Snaps and then we're just gonna kind of scrunch it up See what this section by section. All right, that's a nice piece. Let's do this again Smoothing in the gel Brush it through a once Then I'm gonna go over it again See how the curls fit in between Yeah Denman who? Yeah, this is gonna be the brush This is the brush to look out for y'all. This is gonna make my hair look even shorter Because the curls are going to be popping. So just warning you I Wouldn't call this an elongation brush because your curls are going to be extra pop it now Before you guys ask the number one comment I've even seen on her videos is like what about type 4 hair like will this work for type 4 hair? And then she made videos using the brush on type 4 hair and it still worked It worked very well actually gave people really defined curls So I think she's just gonna make different versions of these that might have like Smaller parts here or larger parts depending on how large you want the clumps of your hair, but overall It's just genius Because you know we did this with the Denman brush But it was just flat, but now it's sectioning everybody. That's the done side defined AF alright the ringlets are ringing My hair looks so short But so defined am I even allowed to rake it through for some volume? So Shirley Temple, but so defined. You know who's gonna love this brush? French Ellie. She's in full mom mode right now, but I need her to try this Okay, let me let this dry. We'll come back and see how it looks. Look at these curls It looks like I individually finger curled These beautiful But I have realized something By doing this by finger coiling the reason why I'm never like a huge fan of how my hair looks at the end is because it's almost dare I say to perfect and that's because I Shouldn't compare my hair to other people which is step one when I think of people like frizz and frills Chloe or French Ellie from celli's curls or there's another girl. I thought but like they always have like the big perfectly defined curls They like their Denman brush. They liked finger coil, but they have very thick hair So if I had a lot of hair and it was thick I can have a million of these ringlets and it would still look big because I have a lot of hair because my hair is super fine it Makes my hair really flat and short because the curls are just like too perfect in order for me to get my Personal desired look. I actually need a little frizz So I need to now break this up so that it looks like I have more hair than I do It's all part of the illusion So now we know that if you need some more help with getting some definition You use a brush to style your hair. You are a current fan of the Denman brush It's like no question. You have to try this brush by bounce curl. It's just it's made for us with curly hair It's gonna be made for you. You're gonna love it now I'm gonna put on some of the bounce curl oil, which I really honestly used more on my skin while I was pregnant Then I have on my hair, but I am going to separate The curls we just made Cuz I need oh, that's a good one. This is gonna be hard to do, but I need more hair So I'm gonna have to separate these shake this out. I'm not the mess up my curls Let's make it bigger. This is the bounce curl volume comb Let's try this guy. Oh, I like this. It's Basically a sideways pick. There we go. That's better. So that's personally how I would style my hair I love that this brush gives me great definition because my hair is so fine I'm gonna have to grab or something like the bounce curl volume comb so that I can get some more Volume on my fine hair, but the curls are definitely popping Let me know you guys think are you someone that finger to tangles or do you like a good brush? Would you try the bounce curl brush if you use a Denman brush or you use any brush to style, please Trust me You're gonna love this this video is not sponsored. I don't really have like a promo code or anything for you guys I guess I can ask but I'll make sure to put a link in the description box for you guys And let me know what you think if you've already tried it. I'll see you guys next time. Thanks for watching beyond grenade today


We continue today with Chapter 14, Teaching for Truth, Introduction. Yes, you are blessed indeed, yet in this world you do not know it. But you have the means for learning it and seeing it quite clearly. The Holy Spirit uses logic as easily and as well as does the ego, except that His conclusions are not insane. They take a direction exactly opposite, pointing as clearly to heaven as the ego points to darkness and to death. We have followed much of the ego's logic and have seen its logical conclusions. And having seen them, we have realized that they cannot be seen except in illusions, for there alone their seeming clearness seems to be clearly seen. Let us now turn away from them and follow the simple logic by which the Holy Spirit teaches the simple conclusions that speak for truth and only truth. The conditions of learning. If you are blessed and do not know it, you need to learn it must be so. The knowledge is not taught, but its conditions must be acquired for it is they that have been thrown away. You can learn to bless and cannot give what you have not. If then you offer blessing, it must have come first to yourself and you must also have accepted it as yours. For how else could you give it away? That is why miracles offer you the testimony that you are blessed. If what you offer is complete forgiveness, you must have let guilt go, accepting the atonement for yourself and learning you are guiltless. How could you learn what has been done for you, unknown to you, unless you do what you would have to do if it had been done for you? Indirect proof of truth is needed in a world made of denial and without direction. You will perceive the need for this if you realize that to deny is the decision not to know. The logic of the world must therefore lead to nothing, for its goal is nothing. If you decide to have and give and be nothing, except a dream, you must direct your thoughts unto oblivion. And if you have and give and are everything, and all this has been denied, your thought system is closed off and wholly separated from the truth. This is an insane world and do not underestimate the extent of its insanity. There is no area of your perception that it has not touched and your dream is sacred to you. That is why God placed the Holy Spirit in you, where you place the dream. Seeing is always outward. Where your thoughts wholly of you, the thought system you made would be forever dark. The thoughts the mind of God's son projects or extends have all the power that he gives to them. The thoughts he shares with God are beyond his belief, but those he made are his beliefs. And it is these, and not the truth, that he has chosen to defend and love. They will not be taken from him, but they can be given up by him for the source of their undoing is in him. There is nothing in the world to teach him that the logic of the world is totally insane and leads to nothing. Yet in him who made this insane logic there is one who knows it leads to nothing, for he knows everything. Any direction that would lead you where the Holy Spirit leads you not goes nowhere. Anything you deny that he knows to be true you have denied yourself and he must therefore teach you not to deny it. Undoing is indirect as doing is. You were created only to create, neither to see nor do. These are but indirect expressions of the will to live which has been blocked by the capricious and unholy whim of death and murder that your father does not share with you. You have set yourself the task of sharing what cannot be shared and while you think it possible to learn to do this you will not believe all that is possible to learn to do. The Holy Spirit therefore must begin his teaching by showing you what you can never learn. His message is not indirect but he must introduce the simple truth into a thought system which has become so twisted and so complex you cannot see that it means nothing. He merely looks at its foundation and dismisses it but you who cannot undo what you have made cannot see through it. It deceives you because you chose to deceive yourself. Those who choose to be deceived will merely attack direct approaches because they seem to encroach upon deception and strike at it. From the workbook, lesson 105 God's peace and joy are mine. God's peace and joy are yours. Today we will accept them knowing they belong to us and we will try to understand these gifts increase as we receive them. They are not like to the gifts the world can give in which the giver loses as he gives the gift. The taker is richer by his loss. Such are not gifts but bargains made with guilt. The truly given gift entails no loss. It is impossible that one can gain because another loses. This implies a limit and an insufficiency. No gift is given thus. Such, quote, gifts are but a bid for a more valuable return alone with interest to be paid in full. A temporary lending meant to be a pledge of debt to be repaid with more than was received by him who took the gift. This strange distortion of what giving means pervades all levels of the world you see. It strips all meaning from the gifts you give and leaves you nothing in the ones you take. A major learning goal this course has set is to reverse your view of giving so you can receive. For giving has become a source of fear and so you would avoid the only means by which you can receive. Accept God's peace and joy and you will learn a different way of looking at a gift. God's gifts will never lessen when they are given away. They but increase thereby. As heavens peace and joy intensify when you accept them as God's gift to you, so does the joy of your Creator grow when you accept His joy and peace as yours. True giving is creation. It extends the limitless to the unlimited, eternity to timelessness and love unto itself. It adds to all that is complete already, not in simple terms of adding more, for that implies that it was less before. It adds by letting what cannot contain itself fulfill its aim of giving everything it has away, securing it forever for itself. Today accept God's peace and joy as yours. Let Him complete Himself as He defines completion. You will understand that what completes Him must complete His Son as well. He cannot give through loss, no more can you. Receive His gift of joy and peace today and He will thank you for your gift to Him. Today our practice periods will start a little differently. Begin today by thinking of those brothers who have been denied by you the peace and joy that are their right under the equal laws of God. Here you denied them to yourself and here you must return to claim them as your own. Think of your, quote, enemies a little while and tell each one as He occurs to you, My brother, peace and joy I offer you that I may have God's peace and joy as mine. Thus you prepare yourself to recognize God's gift to all, to you to let your mind be free of all that would prevent success today. Now are you ready to accept the gift of peace and joy that God has given you. Now you can say God's peace and joy are mine for you have given what you would receive. You must succeed today if you prepare your mind as we suggest for you have let all bars to peace and joy be lifted up and what is yours can come to you at last. So tell yourself God's peace and joy are mine and close your eyes a while and let His voice assure you that the words you speak are true. Spend your five minutes thus with Him each time you can today but do not think that less is worthless when you cannot give Him more. At least remember hourly to say the words which call to Him to give you what He wills to give and wills you to receive. Determine not to interfere today with what He wills and if a brother seems to tempt you to deny God's gift to him see it as but another chance to let yourself receive the gifts of God as yours. Then bless your brother thankfully and say my brother peace and joy I offer you that I may have God's peace and joy as mine. We begin this beautiful chapter of teaching for truth opening our hearts to the condition of learning today we would meet the conditions of what we would perceive we will meet the conditions of what we will be and we are today we accept the gifts we offer miracles and receive the testimony that we are blessed the spirit will reach us indirectly indirect proof of truth is needed in a world made of denial and without direction today the logic of the world will be given us guided by the Holy Spirit today we will not reinforce the dream but become aware clearly that we are dreaming and simply see the false is false the presence of love is sacred to our heart the dream is no longer sacred no longer pursued or desired today we watch the world as we watch our thoughts we allow God to lift us beyond all false thoughts and beliefs rising high into the spirit the Holy Spirit's perspective on the world of complete stillness and wholeness and non-judgment today we would no longer look through the ego's filter for we would be blessed with the presence of the Holy Spirit today we follow the thought of the day and rejoice in happiness God's peace and joy are mine today we will accept them knowing they belong to us today we will give and receive as we have given today all old past ideas of giving are reversed we will not seek to get we will not seek to bargain today we loose our mind from all thoughts of reciprocity giving to get today we see that all that I give is given to myself we bless everyone we think of as they cross our mind my brother peace and joy I offer you that I may have God's peace and joy as mine today we will succeed in experiencing the joy of the real world in that happy dream my brother peace and joy I offer you that I may have God's peace and joy as mine we are delighted in this lightness and this happiness and joy now we see our inheritance and our gifts increase as we give them and receive them God's peace and joy are mine Amen