Yeah, you won't understand anything I say Okay, so I got started I Think we'll get started What up? Yeah, all right, so disclaimer at first. So like I said, I have a cold So this is for me. This is an experiment. I like to program. Obviously everybody likes program I like to debug a lot. I thought it would be nice to talk about bugs. I'm not sure how to do that actually So like I said, it's an experiment I'm not an expert. That's the most important thing. I'm not an expert in the room. I don't believe them. Don't believe anything I say without said believe everything I say The keyword in this slide at least It's a lame joke, but the key keyword here is story, you know, so I'm not sure this is working very well. So let's just do this. Oh Yeah, sorry. Yeah, so the keyword here is a story now So to me at least every bug has a story now I have a story behind it and the context and the story of the bugs very important You know, I just noticed because I have a cord what cold and I'm doing this next speaker is gonna have hell. Sorry About how would that there? Yeah, excellent. Yeah Yeah, that's working well. Yeah, so Like I said in the description which probably never nobody read These are all bugs that I came across while doing some stuff And I tried to rewrite them for presentation write a story around them to be kind of funny. Maybe hopefully and Maybe somebody will learn anything. I don't know. I will certainly learn something like not to do this ever again Okay, so We because of the Duke in the Duke title, I thought let's do a whole scenario scenario about Duke So, yeah, this is Duke King Duke, you know, he's bored He doesn't know what to do with his life.   I'm gonna go to space not sure why but whatever it works Yeah, I'll find these was easy to find these pictures, you know on the internet. So just use them. Yeah So Duke, you know, he decides, okay, let's I'm gonna go to space So, you know, he goes online and learns how to go to space and or there's some stuff and the stuff I think it come. Yeah, it comes along. He starts building.  Yeah, this way. Yeah, this one. This sounds nicer It's wrong. Yeah Yeah, okay. This is hard On the on the future. Yeah, it's buzzing because of this thing Excellent Yes, I have a goal, you know, I can't think straight. So this better. Yeah Excellent. Thank you. So, you know, he starts building and this is the first book, you know So I have a couple of bugs and this is the first one So the first bug or the first system he tries to build is the fuel gauge, you know Very simple system. I'm not sure why Duke is doing it in, you know with a program But you know just because he can and because it works for my presentation So he builds a fuel gauge Small piece of program Small program small piece of code program small program And it monitors the fuel, you know as you're filling it up, etc Suddenly your fuel tank overflows and I know fuel tanks don't look like this, but this works for my code It's much easier. You know, it's just bear with me. Yeah so It overflows Duke doesn't understand why why does it overflow? You know, it's a very simple program, you know It's just it calculates the cylindrical Volume every time you fill some fuel in, you know, and it calculates the Delta's and then this doesn't make any sense I know, but okay, so let's just look at some code. It's pretty easy actually So the volume of a cylinder is basically the area of a circle times the height Very simple. I think it's Yeah, there calculate fuel volume. That's it, you know As you can see I use the pie the unicode pie for pie, which I'm very proud of. Yes. Thank you. Thank you. Yeah, so It looks a bit ugly, but okay So it's very simple, you know, and you fill some fuel in, you know, and With the function fill you say, okay. I filled. I don't know one centimeter. Okay, let's go click one city Me to add it to the total it's not right. It's not what it starts to go wrong, you know Overflows like I said So, so Duke he writes some test code which which I never do actually but test code and He prints out Okay, in retrospect, I should have maybe printed out the values, but doesn't matter So he chooses the fill rate of 100, you know 100 centimeter one meter for example per second or something and he calculates the values and works He doesn't understand why it works or he's glad that it works But why doesn't it work when in a real-world scenario?  So it doesn't work Okay, he starts looking at the code again, not sure which slide is next. Okay, let's go back He starts looking at the code again, you know, can understand why it doesn't work. He starts debugging I'm not sure how to explain how I debug this, but he starts debugging. Okay, just debugging and Turns out something very simple something one of the things everybody knows everybody understands. Nobody applies, you know And if you look at the code, you know So if you look at it Yeah, yeah, I'm not duplicating the screen. So I have to do this So if you look at the code at the top, we're using a lot of floats and instant such But you look at the methods everything or almost everything is a double, you know instead of one line where we Cast it to a float and add it to yet another double so what we have here is The fader to communicate what we have here is Is what's it called? Oh Sorry, we do have a bug. Yes. Thank you very much. Yes But what is the bug is? You give a float to a double and then you do some calculations on it as if it is a double and then you return it and In I don't know 99 of 100 cases. This will work excellent, you know But I chose these values explicitly to make a break, you know And that's what happens actually now. I we widened the flow to a double we do some calculations on it and Then we return it as a double and then we cast it back to a float Which is not the same as doing the same exact calculations on the float.  That's the first bug fuel Duke fixes it on to the next bug Yeah, not sure Yeah, so What's the second most points I think for a space flight Um, yeah, so to me or you know to work with this Narrative story, it's an in-flight entertainment system. This is the most important thing the second most important thing So Duke thought, you know, I'm gonna build myself if I'm in the same system I don't want to be word on on my way to whatever. Yeah, so we start building something and You know Duke likes to read a lot. So he made he started out with a book list A huge book list By the way, all this code is going to be you can download it somewhere And you know He tested it it works, you know kind of you know and Just before you know, he's starting to do the final preparations to go to space Effective Java third edition comes out, you know, which deserves an applause. I think so he added adds it to the book list and He doesn't see it in the system for some reason. He doesn't know why and This this is basically how the how the how the list should look, you know, and At the top that's that's the format of every line So you got a title on the from and it's basically just a huge text file with a lot of books, you know And you have the title of the book then, you know, okay, it starts at bite I don't know so here everything starts at the same bite because I was too lazy But it starts by 33. For example, it's at ends at 45 But he doesn't see effective Java. He doesn't know why he doesn't see effective Java.  He parses it. We're gonna look how I think Yeah, is this readable actually? Excellent. I'm very sorry. I I tried making it as big as I could so this is not gonna work actually if it's not readable Nobody can read this not even people in the front row Okay, sorry people I'm very sorry so So yeah, he does some basic this is basically You know like script parsing interpretive parsing.  Okay Yeah, that kind of stuff is an allowed character that I added is not allowed character. Then I break the program. Yeah So it looks very simple Yeah, I Think for the for the people in the front row. It looks very simple at least, you know, but Yeah So Duke, you know, he starts looking at the list more more closely at the output The list of books we do have, you know, but the ones we don't have and you notice something is this is the last book of the list We actually have the beloved by Tony Morrison, okay Yeah, okay, sorry So Something goes wrong or it's an educate. I know what's wrong with the bug of course But an educated guess would say okay Something goes wrong either with the end of this line or something in the beginning of the next line or from this line on forward and If you look at the really Okay, if you look at this the one below the blue lines Jane Iyer or air and Charlotte's Bronte you can see the E with the I Don't know what's called so but if you see that one It looks peculiar, you know, I mean even note that plus plus says this is not cool So we go back and we look at the code Yeah, I'm gonna speed this up a little bit because I'm running outside and the other bugs are more interesting So basically this the idea behind this Is For the people who can't see the first line above We're using a character set of utf-8 Yeah And that's that's the incorrect characters as the actual characters that should be something like iso The problem with this is here So there You can see we we do a lot of the character is scared is digit is is white space that kind of stuff and that that stuff Only that's what is actually being parsed.  So he doesn't want to collide with any asteroids or whatever space junk So we built in a radar, you know as a collision detection system But you know Duke lives in 2d space who is only doing it for 2d, which is much easier Which and this I'm not real at all. I know But anyway, so the problem is, you know The system it checks for collisions and it says okay incoming asteroid. You're not going to collide with it And he starts colliding with it, you know, it keeps happening keeps happening keeps happening and As you can imagine, it's annoying so He don't say the code Can anybody read this any rows at all? Yeah You can read this I'm really sorry guys I'm not sure what to do. I could I could do that So I'm gonna try to read the important bits, but like I said, I'm not mirroring the monitor So I'm gonna do this kind of stuff because I'm right from the state here.  Yeah, okay, so that's certain so How how it works Okay, so how it works is We basically just plot two lines and one from From the spaceship to your direction and one from the asteroid to its direction and we just see if they intersect We see the point of intersection and then we calculate based on our speed and asteroid speed when the asteroid will hit that point And when we will hit that point very simple It's like, you know what they do with the ships, you know sailing ships and that kind of stuff on a big map and Composers and the cool stuff, you know, which is actually what I did to do this So because the actual bug was a 3d and Very difficult to explain because I don't understand very well myself. So So that's basically what we do here. Yeah So the important part of this equation we just assume the first part works because it does work I know that and we are running out of time. So the first part we assume that it works. Yeah The two lines before the if statement those are the important lines So that's basically we know that there is going to be a collision. We're going to calculate the collision of both the speeds Now the time to arrive to the collision point for the ship and for the asteroid. Yeah, I Think this is more readable Okay, so I'm going to skip this one. So Sorry, I'm not doing that on purpose. It wasn't important. Yeah, I think this one is more real than this is important So these this is basically, you know, you just calculate the distance between the ship and And asteroid and the collision point and you know You divide it by the time and you do the same for the asteroid You can see that the functions are slightly different. No, they're basically the same mathematically speaking. They're Yeah, I Don't remember. Okay. Yeah, so And here lies the problem Because running out of time I'm going to do this quickly. So here here lies the problem This is a mistake in case of operator precedence And the operator precedence in this context shouldn't really matter, you know, because you're basically doing the same mathematical operation You're actually doing exactly the same mathematical operation. Does anybody know why this doesn't work? Okay, sorry So Unfortunately, you can't see this slide very well, but the values I chose I chose them very particularly so if you can look at the code later just test it out and One of these I think the one on top will actually return zero and The one at the bottom will return the actual value and Both should actually return the actual value and The reason for that is, you know, because we're doing something different with the precedence of the operators And the one on the top we're calculating what's between the brackets first Dividing it by two and then we're subtracting it from the distance ship And that results in this case it overflows because it's a flows and it results in a zero if you use double for the same thing You'll get the same values but You know, that's not the bug the buggy. This is the actual bug, you know Problem with operator precedence, you know, you think you're doing something fancy mathematically speaking and such and just you know Shoot yourself in the foot Which I did actually So Yeah, the problem is we're using different equations, you know, we should either use the same equation for both The same correct the equation for both of the same wrong equation for both perfectly the correct one So that's that the last one. I think it's more interesting. I hope so I hope so. So yeah, what's the most important thing on space flight? I Found this cool picture. I hope anybody can read it One guy in front work. He's married. I think so that helps. So yeah, so so yeah, the Duke is You know, he's lonely in space. He wants to Look at a picture of his wife, which people tend to do I think on the lonely or not occurs or I don't know But he wants to look at the picture of his wife And he built a fancy program to do that for him because He does that and this is what he gets, you know, I don't know about you, but doesn't look correct Which I think isn't okay, this is readable, but this doesn't look very much. It's your main function. So display image Think this is more readable That's readable. Sorry How much time do I have? Five minutes So yeah, so He reads an image, you know, he converts it to a buffered image Not sure what that does. Let's check it here Yeah, I didn't include that one, but okay So basically the convert image calls this function Yeah, so the image is a YUV image if anybody knows what it is kind of weird format Where they put the bytes in a very peculiar order and you have to convert them to RGB to be able to view them on a computer now This is basically How you do it? This is just, you know, lifted from Wikipedia. So it's not very complicated It's not very important actually to the bug But what he does here On the third line or the second line of the function itself, you can see you get a byte buffer as an input, you know And we create an int buffer from the byte buffer, you know Just one of the features of byte buffers. Yeah But what you see there is he doesn't duplicate on the byte buffer That's very important because if anybody could see the previous slide Yeah So I can't jump anymore, but if you look at the top right there when we create the By buffer we created a byte buffer as little ending Yeah But one of this is a Java bug, you know, so it's not my personal bug You know, this was actually in Java itself. It's still there. I think When you do duplicates on a byte buffer, you do duplicate you duplicate everything Except the endianness of the byte buffer So this is a big ending byte buffer and he writes to it as if it is a big ending byte buffer So that's why RGBA gets twisted around with something like B-A-R-G or something like that. That's why you've got that weird lady Yeah, you just duplicate it with the right endianness and everything is cool And that's what you get So yeah, that's that's it links for the for the code and such and If you have any questions, which I doubt We're gonna learn all about methanandles. Well, you're gonna learn 25 minutes worth of methanandles, I guess Yeah, yeah exactly Yeah This guy away from it here


Hey, girlfriends, I'm Bianca Renee and you're watching Bianca Renee Today and today I'm stuck at home. And so are you or at least you should be because you shouldn't be leaving the house unless it's absolutely necessary. So I thought that since we're all stuck at home during this time, it might be a good time to clean and organize and do all the things we've been putting off doing because we have to go out and do things but now we have no excuses. So I'm going to reorganize my curly hair product collection because it's getting a little out of hand and I have a lot of new products to show you guys in my collection and there's some products that need to be moved down if you know what I mean. So I'm gonna now reorganize them by brand, by priority of the ones that I like the most on the top and the ones I use the least on the bottom. So let's get started. So first of all here is the before. Kind of mixed match, not really organized. Labels are turned all over the place, side one. And here is side two. Lot of different brands all mixed together. They need to be organized. But first I do need to move all my Divacro products because there's a lot of top going on around them and I just don't feel comfortable using them anymore until we figure out what's really going on. All right, so for my top shelf, I think I'm gonna go with my Not Your Mothers because I have so many of their products and they're definitely my favorite. So let's move them on over to the top floor. As you can see, I have a lot of Not Your Mothers products but one thing I do want to point out is the Not Your Mothers naturals that come in these pretty colored bottles and these are the ones that you can count on to be sulfate, paraben and silicone free. Now there are Not Your Mothers products that do contain silicone though those are usually in white bottles. The only exception would be these products right here which is the curl talk line. But all the ones that are fully colored bottles like these, that is a safe go to. So now let's organize these. All of my Not Your Mothers products, I have all their shampoo and conditioners in the naturals line. I did give away some so maybe not all of them. But I do think that all their conditioners are pretty similar. They all just have different scents and different things that they're supposed to be for. Like this one's supposed to help define curls. This is for hydration. This is the detox. This is for moisture. So depending on what you want, that's what you should buy accordingly but they all have amazing slit. And as you guys might know, my favorite deep conditioner is the Macha Green Tea WoW Apple Blossom Butter Mask. And now they have the curl talk deep conditioner as well. And you know I love the curl talk line. So I have all of them. So my top shelf is complete. All right, we're making progress. Thank you for my next shelf. I'm gonna go with maybe the Moistures. I might do Maui Moisture and Shea Moisture. I think they should get along. They're both drugstore products that have moisture. Very affordable. I think they could share an apartment. Let's try it. Maui Moisture, Shea Moisture Row. I have all of my shampoo and conditioners. I have some masks and some stylers. Maui Moisture also makes body products. So I have some lotion. I have some body wash. I have more actually in my shower. And some body gels, some scrub. So I'm gonna keep those back here so I know where they are. And this is what I have left of my Shea Moisture. I have their Jamaican Black Castor Oil Shine Gel. The treatment. The favorite Curl Enhancing Smoothie. Some little Porosity Lounge. I think it's discontinued. What else is back here? Some more shampoo, protein treatments. That's all I have left out of my Shea Moisture collection but Maui Moisture takes up most of the row. I'm gonna leave the Cantu there. If I have a lot of Cantu, I think I'm gonna bring over Camille Rose. Okay, see this is why we clean. I've never tried this Curl Stretcher. I didn't even know I had it in here. I haven't tried this Cantu Stay Glue Gel. That's probably would be good for my ponytail that might need to try that one very soon. What is this? Style Spray Frizz Free Finisher. Yeah, see I haven't even tried any of those. So I need to get back to those. Here's my Cantu Collection, their natural hair one and their texture line. And then in my Camille Rose section, I have the entire lavender line. I haven't really played with this one too much. I don't really have an opinion but all the Camille Rose products smell amazing.  This honey one, it's a leave-in conditioner. It actually looks like honey. I have their Butter Gel, I have their Shampooes, conditioners, custards. Really good ingredients and just the best smelling products like ever. Now this row and this row is just a hot mess. I don't know what I wanna put on here. So let's go back to my other shelf. All right, now let's go back to the top of this shelf. Right now I have my Rizos Curl so I do want to stay there. And I forgot that my Curl Keeper bottle is huge so it needs to be on this top shelf and it is my favorite. So I'm gonna move Briozio down to the second floor and then we'll move Curl Keeper up. And then in the middle I'm gonna put my favorite Dippity-Doo Girls with Curls Jelly. Starting from the top I have my favorites. I have my Curl Keeper. The gel is one of my favorite gels of all time. I have their Styling Cream, their Slip. The original is also great so I have two Jumbo bottles of those. The Dippity-Doo Girls with Curls Jelly is my absolute favorite gel. I think it takes the cake. The only other Dippity-Doo products I approve are the Moose because these are the only products with no silicone. The other ones do, so keep that in mind. Right next door, I have all of my Riso's Curls collection including the Deep Conditioner, Hydrating Shampoo, Curl Defining Cream and the Refresh and the Tangle Spray. I think I have like three of each. Love them. Moving on down, I think in the middle I'm gonna go with the main choice. I have my Bounce Curl collection. The Light Cream Gel is one of my favorite gels. Definitely top five. Right next door I have the main choice. I have their Tropical Collection. I only have one of their Green Tea and Carrot ones. I have their Kool-Aid line, the Peach Black Tea. I haven't tried this mask, I don't think. I have to try more main choice and let you guys know what I think. But then I also have a bunch of Briogeo products. The Do Not Despair is another great Deep Conditioner that I recommend. Going on down, I have Carol's Daughter and Trey Lux and IGK. Makes my favorite Dry Shampoo, which really helps with your refresh days to clean your scalp and also to give you volume on day one here. This is my secret weapon. Trey Lux has amazing products that are sold at Select Whole Foods and also their website. My favorite products are the Curl Supreme and the High Definition Styling Gel. These two are amazing stylers. Then right next door I have my Carol's Daughter collection. These are the only Carol's Daughter's products that I approve that don't have any sulfates, parabens or silicone. Actually, let me check this one. This one didn't say it on the front. How did you get in here? You have silicone. You must be removed from the shelf immediately. Wait, the conditioner doesn't have silicone, but the shampoo does? Oh, that's peculiar. Hold on people, we're making adjustments. We're making adjustments. Sulfate free shampoo. Domethacone in the shampoo? Okay, removing the cocoa cream shampoo from my shelf. Well, these are the same thing, these are different labels. Interesting, but I can keep the conditioner, which is sulfate, parabens and silicone free. I have no idea why they would put silicone in the shampoo, but not the conditioner, but you get to stay. But as you could see, these three, no silicone, no silicone, no silicone. These are the only three products from Carol's Daughter that I know that are three lines that are silicone free. Cocoa cream, green supreme and their cactus rosewater. I love these two. I don't know if I've tried this one yet. The next row I have Myel Organics. This is another one of my favorite deep conditioners. They're hydrating conditioner. I have Genador. Genador makes one of my favorite gels, which I think is in my bathroom actually, but one of my top five gels is by Genador Beauty. Next I have Pacifica Pineapple Curls. I love the shampoo and conditioner. I wasn't really a fan of the curl defining cream, but I love obviously anything with pineapples on it, including the curls, pineapple or poppin' pineapple collection. I really liked this whole collection as well. I like it much better than the original curls blueberry bliss line. Next row I have Wonder Curl. I haven't used them too much, but I don't know, I'll get back to you. Eva NYC, I just tried those recently. Wasn't blown away, but I'm gonna give it another try.  So these all need to be experimented with very soon. I have my Olaplex, which I definitely recommend for anyone going through heat damage or transitioning. This is supposed to actually help repair your hair. It strengthens it and just fixes everything. So I am a fan of Olaplex. It's just kind of pricey for this little bottle. Next I have Amica. They don't have an opinion on these, but they are sulfate, paraben, silicone free. And then I have my small, approved wedad collection. The Vitacurl Styling Gel. The Vitacurl Shampoo. The Vitacurl Conditioner. These are the only three wedad products that are sulfate, paraben, silicone free. As well as the Advanced Climate Control Humidity Gel. These are the only wedad products that I use. And last, but not least, my random section. Everything in here is sulfate, paraben, silicone free. I just haven't tried them yet. So I have some products from OGX. I have cream of nature. I have design essentials, Eden Body Works, Avino, just a bunch of randoms, TGIN. Yeah, so I gotta get to experimenting. This is my experimental section. This row is getting pretty congested because I'm running out of room. But obviously one of my favorite is Curlsmith. My favorite Curlsmith products are the In-Shower Style Fixer and the Co-Wash, which is that big one in the back. I'm also using their Scalpline. These deep conditioners are amazing. I use them all the time. I'll probably just put those back in the shower, to be honest. I have Innersense Organic. I do owe you guys a video on these. I'm trying to fall in love with these products. That is something I'm applying them correctly. So stay tuned, but these have very, very natural ingredients. I have a lot of products from Living Proof. I have shampoo, conditioner, pretty decent. I don't know if I'm blown away yet, but I have to keep experimenting. Design Essentials. I did like their shampoo and conditioner. Right next door, I have my LUS products. My favorite LUS would probably be the Deep Conditioner. It's for deep conditioning and repair. And then I also have my Mark Anthony products. These are the only Mark Anthony products that are sulfate, paraben, silicone-free. They're a silicone-free line. But I definitely love the Strictly Curls three times the Moisture Deep Conditioner. This is the only Strictly Curls Mark Anthony product that is silicone-free, like the other yellow ones have silicone, so just keep that in mind. Then my very bottom shelf, I have my Raw Sugar Shampoo and Conditioner. I have just about every naughty product. I have the Tooth and Rescue. I have Blonde. I have Wave Hello. I have Color Bomb. So I have all the naughty products that are 97% natural. I have my two Derma E products for scalp relief. I have the one pattern beauty conditioner that is silicone-free.  So this will actually make your hair all those different colors. I haven't gone crazy in a long time, but I keep them around for Halloween. And then here are all of my oils, Jamaican Black Castor Oil, Argan Oil, Jejoba Oil, Lavender Oil, Peppermint, all that's there when I get ready to, you know, learn how to use oils better. So this whole pile right here, I don't know what I'm gonna do with it. I would just love if there was a way to just know if they were good by the skew number. Maybe if it was like, if it has the letter B, it's a good batch, but if it has the letter A, it's a bad batch. That way I could still use some of my favorite products. This is a brand new super cream. If you don't know what I'm talking about, you need to watch my last video. And this pile of products are just products that I'm probably not going to grab for over all the other ones on my shelf, but fortunately, they all are sulfate, paired with silicone free. They're just not my faves. These products are all expired and going in the trash. A way for you to know when products expire is by looking for this little symbol here. That actually means that this should be thrown away 12 months after being opened. That's how long this will stay fresh. So if you really want to be good about your products, I'd recommend getting a Sharpie and writing when exactly you opened it so you can keep track of when it's going to expire. When trying to figure out if your products are expired to see if the consistency looks different, if the colors change or if it smells weird, throw it out. So here is my entire curly hair product collection. And I'm happy to say that every product on both of these shelves are sulfate, paraben, and silicone free. So I don't want to hear that you guys don't have any options because there's obviously so many products to choose from. And this is me being pretty choosy. The majority of these products already have a full review and tutorial on my channel. So make sure you check out my curly hair playlist to see any other videos you might have missed. That took me much longer than expected, but I'm very happy with my completed organized collection. What do you guys think? Let me know what products you saw that are your favorites. Which ones do you want me to review or try next? If you enjoyed this video, make sure to give me a thumbs up and subscribe. I post new videos just about every week. You also can make sure you follow me on Instagram at Ms. Bianca Renee for daily tips on my Instagram story. You get information there much quicker than you do here on YouTube. But hit that notification bell to be notified as soon as I post a new video. I'll see you guys next time. Thanks for watching Bianca Renee today.


Hello, everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug. Streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Before I get started, I need to go through the general disclosure. All Bookmap limited materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk of the Scosure. Training futures, equities, and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Here's my contact information. The best way to get in touch with me is through Discord. My name on Discord is Doug P. Also in Bookmap Discord, there's an options-dash-Doug chat channel. That's a great place to post questions, comments, and content related to the topics of my presentation and the topics of the channel that I'll go through in just a moment. And know that Bookmap Discord is free and available to everyone. It's a great community of active traders, a lot of variety of experiences, a variety of topics, but all trying to help each other to become better traders. Highly recommended. Again, free and available for everyone, whether you subscribe to Bookmap or not. I'm also on X, formerly known as Twitter. My name there is at Doug Pless. The focus of my presentation today and the focus of the options-dash-Doug chat channel is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading in the first is planning. And I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day, as well as the directional bias. And the second step in my process is execution. I look at real-time order flow in Bookmap and real-time market maker hedging flow in Spondy Gamma Hero to confirm my thesis and for setups for entries and exits. And when I talk about setups today, I will be focusing on an underlying asset. And setups in that asset can be taken any number of ways. For example, the S&B 500 setups can be taken with ES futures, spy shares, spy options, SPX options, or even ES options. Questions and comments are welcome. And I will be watching both the options-dash-Doug chat channel and discord as well as the chat and YouTube for your questions and comments. Please feel free to post and I'll do my best to answer your questions. And Soto Rossi says, Apple announces changes to iOS. Thank you for posting that. And hello, Steven. Welcome. Glad you're here. All right, here's my agenda for today, Thursday, January 25th. First of all, I want to go over news items, economic data, and events for today and the rest of the week. Then I'll go through my positional analysis. Then I'll review some setups from earlier today and then we'll take a look at the live market. And when I get to the live market, if anyone has any stocks they want me to take a look at, please let me know and I'll be glad to do that. All right, let's start with news items. There were a couple of key data releases this morning. So let's take a look at that. And I forgot to bring that over. Give me just a moment. So at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time, first of all, durable goods, the durable goods orders were released. That came in lower than expected, lower than the previous number as well. Also, the, I guess, more important data was the GDP, which came in better than expected, but lower than previous. So again, greater than expected, less than previous. I think we'll take a look at the reaction to this release in just a minute. I think the key was this number right here. This price index, GDP price index, came in lower than forecast and also lower than previous. All right, let's see how the market reacted to that data. This is the ES futures and book map. Here's the data release at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time and a very bullish reaction to that data. Again, I think it was the net price index that was really the key to this bullish move higher. All right, so Friday data coming up for the rest of the week. PCE data comes out tomorrow at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time and that could definitely be a market mover. All right, so that should wrap up the week. All right, let's move on to positional analysis now. So I'm going to start with the ESB 500. Again, this is the ES futures and book map. Before I take a closer look at this chart, I do want to take a look at the underlying index in a larger time frame. I'm going to start with the SPX. That's the underlying index. This is a one-day chart and think or swim. And for those of you who've been with me for a while, I'll try and go through this as quickly as possible. So this is SPX. The current rally began October 30th last year and found resistance at 4,800. Then last Friday, options expiration broke out above that level, broke out above 4,800. And now it's found resistance at 4,900. All right, so that's a one-day chart, larger time frame showing the context here of a pretty strong rally that began at the end of October last year. All right, let's take a look at sticking with SPX. Let's take a look at a one-hour chart. This is a 30-day one-hour chart. This is the 4,800 level showing resistance at that level and multiple tests of that level. And then last Friday, options expiration broke above that level, now finding resistance at 4,900, which is the current call wall. All right, let me go over the levels on this chart. First of all, the dash purple lines are showing the lower and upper weekly expected move. This is based on the options market. That upper weekly expected move may be difficult to see. It is just below 4,900. That's based on the options market. I update those levels once a week. Do that over the weekend. The dash blue lines are showing the lower and upper daily expected move. I update that every day at the close. That's also based on the options market. All right, the dark red lines are showing spot gamma levels. These are proprietary spot gamma levels provided to spot gamma subscribers for a variety of trading platforms. This is thinkorswim. I'm going to point out the key to the levels. These are based on gamma weighted open interest. First of all, the put wall is at 4,500. That's a strike with the largest net negative gamma that can be expected to act as support. The next level up is the volatility trigger. That's at 4,845. And that a spot gamma is proprietary gamma volatility flip level. Below that level, market makers position on the gamma curve is negative. In a negative gamma environment, market makers have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure. That tends to enhance or increase volatility. On the other hand, above that level, market makers position on the gamma curve is positive. In a positive gamma environment, market makers have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure. And that tends to subdue or decrease volatility. And note that SPX is trading above that level in a positive gamma environment. The next level up is 4,900 that I mentioned before. That's the call wall. That's a strike with the largest net positive gamma that can be expected to act as support resistance. And note there's a combo level just below that that did act as resistance today. That combo L1 level. We'll take a look at that in just a minute and a shorter time frame. Then the next key daily level up is the 5,000 level. That's the absolute gamma strike. That's a strike with the largest absolute positive and negative gamma. So that's where most of the gamma weighted open interest is concentrated. Alright, finally let's take a look at a one minute chart so we can see the levels in play for today. So here's that combo level that I mentioned just below the call wall and acting as perfect resistance. And note that combo level is just below the upper weekly expected move. And here's the upper daily expected move. So all those levels acting as resistance. Alright, let's go to book map now. And actually I want to show one other thing. Show the reaction at the 4,900 yesterday. So this is from yesterday. Here's the 4,900 level. And the combo level up just one point higher at 4899. It moved down to 4898 today. But that level acted as resistance. That cluster of levels acted as resistance. And this is something that I did forgot to mention yesterday. But the trigger for this move lower right at 1pm was a bond auction at 1pm. It was bond auction for five year notes, treasury notes. And that was the trigger for the coordinated move lower in the SB500 and most of the stocks that I follow as well as the NASDAQ. Alright, so that's from yesterday showing that 4,900, the 4,900 level and the reaction there. Alright, so it's the 4,900 level is just above here. Alright, let me point out on my chart here, my book map chart. I have cloud notes. These are my own cloud notes. So I can show SPX levels. There's that combo one level that acted as resistance earlier today. I also have SPI levels on this chart. This SPI 487, that's the absolute gamma strike and call wall that has been key today with acting as more or less as support earlier today. Now maybe resistance. So price oscillating up and down around that level. Note the point of control is just above that 487 level. So I have SPX levels, SPI levels and also key levels for ES shown in red there. That's ES 4,900 and here's the upper daily and weekly expected move for ES. Alright, note there is a difference in price between ES and SPX. Today it looks like it's right around 27 now. When I set up my charts this morning it was closer to 28. So that's what I'm using, but it looks like now it's somewhere between 27 and 28, maybe closer to 27. So using 28 ES minus SPX equals 28, I'm showing this SPX 4898 at ES 4926. Now it looks like the SPI 486 large gamma 2 level may be acting as support. Alright, so those are the levels in play for the SP500. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. This is the NQ Futures in Bookmap. Before I take a closer look at this chart, I do want to take a look at a QQQ chart so we can isolate the levels in play. QQQ 429 acting as resistance. It's not a spot gamma level, but it is a round number level. Also earlier in the day, this combo level, combo all four combining QQQ and NDX, gamma weighted open interest, into one level shown here in terms of price for QQQ acting as resistance. Alright, let's take a look at NDX. And I'm looking at these charts because the, I believe, options trades are a key driver of, in these underlying indexes, are a key driver of price action in the futures. So here, NDX is showing this combo L3 level in play earlier today. Price oscillating up and down around it. Alright, let's get back to Bookmap now. So again, I have my own cloud notes in Bookmap. There's the QQQ 429 level that also lines up with NQ 17750 acting as resistance. Also the upper weekly expected move for NQ. So I have QQQQ levels, NQ levels. And it looks like this is that combo level for NDX shown with a white line there. The label is not visible. Alright, shifts in levels for the SMB500. Volatility trigger shifted higher for SPX and SPY. And for SPY, the call wall shifted lower down to 487. And the absolute gamma strike shifted higher to 487. So the concentration of gamma weighted open interest for SPY is at 487. So other than the shift in volatility trigger, though there were no shifts in levels for the SPX. So after expiration last Friday, it appears now that the levels are stabilizing the gamma levels are stabilizing for SPX. Alright, for NDX, the volatility trigger and put wall shifted lower. And for QQQ, the put wall and absolute gamma strike shifted higher. Alright, so kind of a mixed picture for the shifts in levels. Not really definitive one way or another. Alright, let's take a look at Gamma Notional to see how market makers were positioned on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day. And then we'll take a look at some setups. Alright, so let's go to Gamma Notional. I go over this every day. I like to see how market makers are positioned on the gamma curve. And how that gives me a sense of the anticipated volatility and trading range for the day. So this is Gamma Notional for the SB500, NASDAQ and also 2000. And this is at the bottom of the AM Founders Note, Spot Gamma AM Founders Note. For the SB500, both these numbers are positive. So this indicates what Spot Gamma assumes that for an index, traders are short calls, market makers are long calls. So on this portion of the Gamma curve, market makers are long calls since the positive Gamma. And they have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure. And then note that now for QQQ, Gamma Notional has shifted just slightly negative. So for the NASDAQ, Gamma Notional is essentially neutral. And then for the Russell 2000 negative. So in a negative Gamma environment, this indicates traders are long puts, market makers are short puts, and they have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure. Alright, so positive Gamma for the SB500, neutral for the NASDAQ and negative for the Russell 2000. Note all these numbers did shift lower from yesterday, I guess actually with the exception of NDX, which is typically not very significant. So it became more negative for the Russell 2000 and shifted lower for the SBX, SPI and QQQ. Alright, one other thing to point out today, one kind of key, something to keep an eye on, I think Caesar pointed this out yesterday, is the VIX. This is yesterday, the dark shaded areas are the regular trading hours. And again, I think it was Caesar pointing this out yesterday, that VIX began to rise, looks like a right around 10.30 yesterday. And now it's continued that move higher, pretty much from the cash open today. Alright, so according to that, it looks like traders may be reaching for longer dated puts for protection. Alright, let's take a look at some setups now. I'm going to start with the SB500. So everything that we've looked at so far, other than book map, is based on static data. So the levels that I was looking at, the spot gamma levels, gamma notional, that is updated once a day. It's available in the morning, so I use that in my planning process to set the levels on my chart, looking at gamma notional. So that's all based on static data that's updated once a day, sometime overnight.  Now we're going to switch over to the execution process. And I'm going to look at real time data. The first thing I want to do is take a look at what options traders are doing today. Again, I think options traders in the underlying index products by SPX, NDX, QQQ are key drivers of price action. Market makers hedge those trades with ES futures and NQ futures. Alright, so I'm going to start with the SB500. This is the hero chart. Hedging impact, real time options. This is available to spot gamma subscribers. This chart is showing the hero signal for the SB500. The chart is showing price for SPX with a white line. The purple line is showing the hero signal. Again, that's hedging impact, real time options. And a rising purple line indicates traders are taking positive delta positions. And this is a combined signal for SPX, SPY, XSP, and ES futures. All under one combined signal. So when traders are taking positive delta positions in those underlying index products, market makers are taking the opposite side and they have to buy futures to hedge their delta exposure. On the other hand, when the hero signal is, oops, wrong tool, when the hero signal is falling, this indicates traders are taking negative delta positions. They are buying puts and or selling calls. Market makers take the opposite side and they have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure. They always want to remain delta neutral. Alright, so this is the combined signal for the SB500. This is what I always use for any, if I'm trading any form with the SB500. Alright, so let's take a look at some setups earlier today. So I'm going to zoom in. Excuse me, I'm going to zoom in. And the first setup I want to take a look at is along. Right here is the signal shifted higher. So traders were started to take positive delta positions. We'll take a look at this setup in book map in just a minute. So that's the first signal. And the next was just somewhere between 10.05 and 10.10 Another long. Note the timely flow alert coming in. Or maybe not necessarily timely, a little bit late, but nonetheless, something to get your attention. Alright, so that's two long setups. And Kuki69, hello, ask, what is flow on a hero chart? That is a signal that indicates significant options activity, something to get your attention. Alright, let's take a look at while we're on hero here, let's take a look at one other thing. So this is the signal for the SB500. And I interpreted this as a signal for longs here, right around 9.50 and somewhere between 10.05 and 10.10. Alright, let's take a look at one other hero signal here. I'm going to go to this mag seven. Let me zoom out. So this is another combined signal. This is showing options trades and market maker hedging activity for a combined signal for the stocks known as the Magnificent Seven, Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla. And thank you, Stephen. Alright, let's zoom in on this chart. So again, I know this is a lot to look at, but these stocks make a very large component of especially the NASDAQ 100, but also the SB500. And this is going to add another confirmation for the second long set up. Right here at 10 a.m. Options traders start taking positive delta positions in the mag seven stocks. Again, these stocks make up a large component of both the NASDAQ and the SB500. And I'm separating outputs and calls here. The rising orange line indicates traders are buying calls. And the blue line indicates puts, that's pretty flat. So right around 10 o'clock, 10, 10.05, they started aggressively buying calls. When traders buy calls in stock, market makers sell the calls and they have to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure. And when they're buying stock and all these major products, the index is most likely going to go higher as well. Alright, let's go back to the SB500. Zoom in again. Alright, let's go take a look at book map now. Zoom in on the morning session. Give me just a moment to rearrange the screen. Alright, so at this point in the day, starting right around 10 a.m., I know that traders are taking positive delta positions in the mag seven stocks. And then before that, there was a long signal in hero. And at the same time, this is not a large number. So I'm going to start with the first long set up. So there is some, some iceberg buying, large traders buying with iceberg orders. And this 487, that's the absolute gamma strike and call wall for the, for spy acted as a good entry point for a long. So note traders, this light blue line showing that large traders are buying with iceberg orders they use to hide their size. So I like to see these lines rising. The volume dots are showing market buy minus sell. Magenta dots indicate more sellers than buyers. Green volume dots indicate more buyers than sellers. So it looks like to me, the sellers became exhausted, aggressive buyers started to come in and price moved higher. And that was good for a scalp. Let's go back and take a look at hero. So there's one long scalp off the 487 level. That's right around ES 4913. And let's go take a look at hero again. Zoom in on this. So this is what I was looking at in the morning. You know, kind of a zoomed in view, just not looking at what happened much later. But so I was watching iceberg orders and aggressive buyers starting to come in at that level that looked like it was going to act as support and, you know, entered at 4913 as the hero signal started rising. Let's go back to, go back to book map now, zoom in just a little bit more. So another thing I was looking at for these two long entries here in the sub chart, I've got three lines. This dark blue line showing CVD, cumulative volume Delta, light blue line showing iceberg orders and the yellow line showing stop orders. And note in the sub chart panel here, all these numbers are positive. So I interpret that as bullish. All right. So first long set up a little bit of consolidation there and then break out of the range. And then this level acting as 4087 level 4913 acting as support again. And ES makes a series of higher lows, aggressive buyers starting to come in shown by the green volume dots. And now in this case, my start borders helped to feel the move higher that shown by the rising yellow line. Also, you can't see it in here, but iceberg orders, large traders buying with iceberg orders that shown by the rising light blue line. So at this point, I know that traders are also buying calls in the mag seven stocks. So when all these numbers are positive, traders are buying calls in the mag seven stocks, I'm looking for long setups, right? Let's zoom out. All right. So two long setups in the morning. And let's actually zoom back in. Then right at 1030, there was a nice short setup. Sorry about this. Turn break at 488. Note at this point that ES is below the SPX call wall, but above the spy call wall. So here's the short right at 1030. And here, this one was very clear. You can see all the aggressive sellers coming in, CVD shifts sharply lower and then sell stop orders fuel to move lower shown by the falling yellow line. We'll see what options traders were doing right at 1030. Let's go back to hero. All right. So starting about 1025, the hero signal shifts starts to shift lower as prices approaching the 4900 call wall. Hero shifts lower and setting up a good short just after 1030 kind of a leading indicator there. So hero shifts lower and then price follows a few minutes later. Let's see what the traders were doing in the mag seven stocks. Go back to mag seven. And here in the mag seven stocks, they simply take their foot off the gas separate outputs and calls. So note from 1030, I'm sorry, 10 o'clock to 1030 aggressively buying calls, then that slows down mag seven consolidates and ES drops lower. So 1030 traders in the S&P 500 stop buying calls. They start buying puts that show them by the rising falling blue line and price moves lower, setting up a short. All right. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. So for NASDAQ, I've been looking at just this mag seven. Again, remember at 10 o'clock, they started aggressively buying calls in the magnificent seven stocks. Let's go to NASDAQ. All right. So obviously right around noon, the better side would have been short, but I've tried, I've primarily traded in the morning. So let's go take a look. Let's just focus on this setup. Then we'll take a quick look at some stocks and get to the live market and take a look at what's going on now. So I just want to focus on this setup from right around 10 to 1030. Iceberg buys, aggressive sellers on the way down, aggressive buyers start to come in. Good entry point right around 427. Good for a move up to the upper week, the expected move. Shown with the purple line there. Pullback entries. Shown along that trend line. All right. So we know the traders were buying calls aggressively in the mag seven stocks from 10 to 1030. So there's the setup, long setup in NASDAQ. Let's take a quick look at some stocks and then we'll take a look at the what's going on current market. So one ask, what do you see for SPX now? We'll get to that in just a minute. So it looks, yeah, it looks like everything's going down. And in this case, the move down started before there was another treasury auction today at 1 p.m. I think it was a seven year notes. All right. Few stocks I want to take a look at. First of all, Google. Very bullish morning. Let's go take a look at Hero for Google. There were a couple of things here. First of all, the rising orange line. Traders buying calls. Market makers sell the calls and they have to buy stock by their delta exposure. Also, 150 is the call wall. Key gamma strike. Price breached that level. When price trades above a call wall for a stock, spot gamma assumes that traders along calls, market makers, short calls, calls concentrated at the call wall. When those calls go as price rises, those calls go deeper in the money. Their delta is increasing. Market makers have to continue to buy stock by their delta exposure. Note also, this is very typical pattern. Aggressive call buyers in the morning and they take the foot off the gas and price consolidates. Good point for selling a call spread if you like to trade spreads. Let's go back to BookMap. There's Google. Aggressive call buyers in the morning. Call wall breach at 150. Price moves higher until call buyers take their foot off the gas. The next is Nvidia. The main thing that I want to point out for Nvidia here, and I'm just going to leave the chart like this instead of zooming in, is this move higher right here. Remember, that's from 10 to 1030. Remember, the Mag7 signal was moving higher. Also note when this starts to move lower just before noon. Let's go take a look at Hero. First of all for Nvidia. Call buyers. 10 to 1030. Look familiar? Yeah, it should. Just like Mag7. Take the foot off the gas. Now right around noon, they start selling calls. Let's go take a look at the Mag7. Pretty similar chart. Aggressively buying calls. 10 to 1030. Take the foot off the gas. Right around noon, they start selling calls. So Nvidia. Very active options market and a key driver of the Mag7 signal here. All right, so let's go back to Nvidia. Don't hear a couple of more flow alerts this time being more timely. Let's just zoom in on this morning. So this is a very good indication for long in the morning. Giving you a little bit of lead. Flow alert.  All right, so that's Nvidia. And then last, I want to take a look at Tesla of course. Tesla reported earnings. Let's go back to the total signal. So actually, while I have it separated, both these numbers notion of value negative indicating traders are selling calls and buying puts. Now let's go back to the total signal. Combining calls and puts. Sorry about that. Sometimes jumping from puts calls and back to the total signal causes that auto zoom. So zoom. All right, so notice the sharp drop in the morning. Traders taking negative delta positions. Another timely flow alert there. Let's go take a look at book map. Tesla map a little slow today. All right, so definitely a down day here in Tesla. Short setup right around 190. This is pretty typical of stocks. The liquidity in the order book. The heat map is showing a history of it. Liquidity in the order book typically comes in at the cash open. Here in the case of 185, these orders, these are buy limit buy orders in the order book came in before the cash open. They typically stay in the order book until they're filled and often acts as a magnet for price. All right, so traders taking negative delta positions. Market makers selling stock to hash their delta exposure and good for a great short setup in Tesla. All right, let me check for questions. JLNZ asks how do you look from the dome in order to validate a trade? I look at the dome just to enter a trade. So I'm showing everything that I'm looking at to plan and execute a trade. I'm looking at what options traders doing and hero and then order flow in book map to plan and enter a trade. So there are plenty of dome traders. There are book map has an excellent dome, dome pro. There's a trader that has done webinars for book map showing how he uses the dome. He's an expert at that and my expertise is more in options and watching what options traders are doing and how that influences price action in the SMB500 and NASDAQ. Oh, thank you, Stephen, Gary Norden, yes. So if you're interested in the dome, dome pro specifically, take a look at what they search the book map YouTube channel for Gary Norden's webinars. All right, then Juan asks what do you see for SPX now? So if I'm trading any form of the SPX, so for SPX options only, if I'm trading SPX options, either spreads or naked options, then I'm looking at this chart. If I'm trading spy SPX or ES, this is the chart that I look at. It gives me the most information for the SP500. All right, so what I see right now is a downtrend starting right around noon when traders started taking negative delta positions in the mag 7 stocks. Downtrend also note now that stop order CVD have both shifted negative. Let's see what options traders are doing. Let's go back to the SP500. So kind of a mixed picture here, maybe mean reverting price action or options trades, hedging flow. So right now the hero signal has shifted higher, but still making a series of lower highs. So this latest move remains to be seen. Let's see what they're doing in the mag 7. And thank you, Steven. Thanks for posting that link to Gary Norden's webinar. All right, mag 7, showing more bearish signal here. Hero continues to move lower, making lower highs. This is a chart. Think of swim chart that I have showing. This is mag 7 plus AMD. Yeah, I don't have Netflix on this chart. So this is this is all looking pretty bearish. All these stocks trending lower. All right, let's go back to book map. All right, so one what I see now is bearish. Let's zoom in on this a bit. So it remains to be seen whether this is a reversal higher. We know that the hero signal for the SM500 is shifting higher. The hero signal for mag 7 continues to move lower. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. See what NASDAQ is doing. Definitely looking bearish to me. Let's see the I typically do not label the QQQ spot gamma levels. Let's see what 424 and 425 are. All right, 425 is the zero gamma level. And 424 is a large gamma one level. So actually 424 is the absolute gamma strike. So that's a strike with the largest gamma weighted open interest for QQQ. And that level did shift higher from yesterday. So so far looking bearish. It remains to be seen whether the 424 will act as support. The large traders have been buying weakness with iceberg orders that shown by the rising light blue line. And for NASDAQ in a reversal, I would really want to see CVD start to rise and then some stop orders to fuel the move higher. So I would be looking for the yellow line and the pink line to start moving higher and NASDAQ to make start to make a series of higher lows, higher highs and higher lows before I would look for a long until then, as Bruce says, the outlook, the move is bearish and no need to change that for now. Let's go back to the SB 500. All right, so SB 500 maybe finding support. Let's go back and check hero signals. So mag seven continues to move lower. SB 500 still now rising. It looks like it has kind of broken this trend of lower highs. Flow alert. So it could be a bullish signal for the SB 500. Zoom back out. Looks like some aggressive buyers are starting to come in. You can see the green volume dots. CVD starting to rise. So looking more bullish here in the SB 500 and remains to be seen whether this is a reversal or just another pullback for a short. And now some buy stop orders coming in. Showing by the green dot there. So a little bit of a stop run here. Let's go back and check hero and the hero signal continues to move higher. Let's zoom in on this. So it doesn't provide much clarity back to book map. All right, does anyone have any stocks they want me to take a look at?  My time is up. All right, interesting day today, more of a range day in the morning than more trending day in the afternoon. Good trades all around. I want to thank everyone for watching. Thank you for your questions and comments. Remember, PCE data out tomorrow morning at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time. And we'll talk about it tomorrow afternoon. And Nando wants to see Metta. We'll take a quick look at Metta. Typical pattern for Metta. Aggressive move in the morning. Call buyers. Take the foot off the gas. In this case, right around 10.30 and price consolidates. All right, there you go.  I want to thank everyone for watching. Thank you for your questions and comments. And we'll talk about PCE tomorrow. And I'll see you at 1.30. All right, thanks again. Bye.


Good day, fellow investors! Ray Dalio, a person that we follow closely on this channel, has recently declared his performance for 2018 and many were surprised because he was up 14.6% over 2018, while most others have been down. So in this video we're going to discuss why is he up, what can we learn from his strategy, from what he has been saying constantly over the long term about the stock market, about diversification. Then we're going to discuss the importance of short-term performance and how to put that into a long-term view and then at the end I'm going to show you my short-term performance just to put all the cards on deck. So let's start with Dalio's performance. So Bridgewater Pure Alpha Fund returned 14.6% last year. We recently had a nice discussion with Jeremy from the financial education channel back in November when he was asking about Dalio's underperformance over the last five years. I replied that Dalio's focus and why the reason why he's managing 180 billion is on risk because those billionaires, you need to have 1 billion to be a member of his fund and the minimum entry is I think 100 million, those people don't like risk. They need something that will work well in every environment. And this is what I also explained in the comment for Jeremy, focus on risk. 2008 when all stocks went down 40%, Ray Dalio's fund went up. Similarly this year when everybody was down, most people were down, Dalio's fund was up. And this is what the fund is actually designed. When you sum everything up, since its inception in 1991 the Pure Alpha strategy has had an average annualized net return of 12%. So we have one year of 14.6% but the performance in 2017 and 2016 was from 1 to 2%. So it was terribly as Jeremy would say when you compare it to the market. However over the long term and that is what matters Ray Dalio has performed very well or we could say extremely well given his risk management because 12% per year it's great comparable to the SAP 500 I think from 1991 when Dalio started should be also 10-11%. But the SAP 500 has no risk management, absolutely nothing. If stocks crash the SAP 500 crashes. However you have seen that when the markets crash when there is volatility Ray Dalio gains. And an interesting fact here is that up till the end of October Ray Dalio for 2018 was up just again 1-2%. So therefore Jeremy's video in November. Nevertheless in the last two months given the volatility given his hedges given his positioning everything worked very well for Dalio for 2018 and that's his job and that's what he has been doing all along. And if you wish to have such a similar strategy that does well then you have to create a portfolio a diversified portfolio that works well in most economic environments market environments and you have to rebalance accordingly between different asset classes. Let's discuss more about Dalio's strategy. As Dalio says about the commotion that created his 14% return over the year and something very important which we will dig in as soon as he publishes it is that he will publish his economic and investment principles. I can't wait for that to come out. If it will be free great if not we'll buy it immediately and make a summary on the channel. So Ray Dalio starts before going into strategy Ray Dalio discusses the mentality. If you are worried when the stock market goes down and happy when it goes up it probably indicates that your portfolio is unbalanced. And that's the key. If your income is also tied to how the economy does you are doubly at risk because your portfolio can go down when your income is worst which is scary. So even further people borrow money to buy cars to buy houses. Yesterday I saw Lamborghini SUV or things like that so late part of the cycle and that is what makes the financial roller coaster up and down so big and dramatic. For Dalio the key is not to have any systematic biases by structuring your portfolios and your incomes so that they hedge each other and are in balance. Achieving good balance is the most important thing. So for most people they are happy when stocks go up their income is strongly related to the economy. They use that and usually take it at the wrong time in the cycle because in the later part of the cycle it's easy to get that debt because the collateral values are higher banks are more willing to lend and then you get trouble down the road. And few people have really balance in their portfolios. Balance I have been talking a lot about having a little bit of gold for the balance etc. Diversification good assets good quality businesses bonds for a lot of investors also something good and that's what Dalio is saying. Let's see more about the environments and what this balance really means how to invest. So four environments which Dalio focuses on and this is something crucial to understand also for the stock market. We have an environment with growth economic growth higher than expected or lower than expected and other environments with inflation higher than expected or lower than expected. Now we compare Dalio's performance with the stock market but we have to take into account this. When you look at the interest rates since Ray Dalio launched his fund those went from six to two percent currently. So an environment with declining interest rates an environment with declining interest rates and economic growth is excellent for stocks. So that's one asset class. However Ray Dalio is positioned to perform well in all four economic environments. Stocks are not positioned to perform well in all four economic environments and this is where Ray Dalio's greatness comes afloat. When the environment changes and when interest rates go up for 10 15 years Ray Dalio will do again amazingly well. However stocks those who are long stocks and only stocks will not do that well because maybe bonds will do well maybe commodities gold etc will do well and that is called diversification and balance. That is Ray Dalio's message. Please subscribe to the channel because we are really following Dalio we are trying to learn as much as we can from him because he's now in an age when he willingly shares everything he does everything 1500 very smart people at Bridgewater do to help let's say the globe to help the financials with the people and to improve this world. So thank you Dalio we'll be following you for a long long term. Now to put all cards on deck we said okay let's see about Sven and his performance over the last three years. Even if three years one year is not that important one year is absolutely not important let's see my performance over the last three years. So as said SAP 500 minus 4% in 2018 emerging markets minus almost 20 bitcoin minus 74% Dalio plus 14.6% and Sven that was invested in Nevsoon was up 22%. However let's see three years Dalio's fund is up just 20% which is why he was bombarded by many like underperforming and things like that. SAP 500 is 40% up emerging markets 40% up bitcoin 813% up so bitcoin wins in this case and Sven is up 50%. In a recent video last week I discussed my current portfolio that I'm currently 90% in cash and this is because over the last three years 2016 I launched a fund in the Netherlands we liquidated I had two investors so I learned a lot about the fund industry how to do the cost of having such a small fund in the Netherlands increased due to regulation European Union so we decided to liquidate and we liquidated in a way that from 2018 January we held on to Nevsoon some other small positions but we slowly liquidated as Nevsoon went up. When I'll be starting a fund again the investors were happy the two of them I hope there will be more we're happy to we'll be happy to join again but let me show you my performance over the last few years I wasn't really happy about what I was doing as an investor except for Nevsoon where there was value over the last three years because I was a full-time teacher I was a full-time content writer so there wasn't too much time over the last three years became a father bought a house things like that so therefore I'm happy with what I did over the last three years it is in line with what I did over the last 16 70 years 16 17 years but for the future given that from the last six months everything is based on my strong research full-time researcher now I expect better risk reward opportunities in the long term better optionality which makes me invest much much easier and on a stronger basis with stronger fundamentals let me just show you the performance for the last three years which is important so over the last three years launched the fund fund in 2016 it did very well during 2016 then Nevsoon didn't do very well in 2017 some other positions so 2017 was a negative year under performing the market and then as we went into liquidation Nevsoon was the biggest position really big position but I'm calculating also the part in cash that was liquidated if not this performance would go much higher but that's not the story now so Nevsoon I was buying first time 2016 I sold a little bit at the peak a few months later then buying a little bit more selling a little bit buying more buying more buying more even lower selling before the dividend cut then buying buying even more buying even more in January 2018 when the position was really really large in the fund but I calculate also my cash that I had on the side and then everything went well and also the fund improved performance significantly so since then I said okay I really need time to devote research I need a year and a half to do proper research and then we can really manage a fund properly so the key is okay each one of us has a different strategy I'm focused on value investing business returns Delio is focused on doing good in any environment so let's say I'm more inclined to buff it with a little bit of Delio trying to combine the two things I own commodities commodity producers that are good businesses that I think there are good businesses and then we have the majority of people that are not balanced you see my balance I give time research try to balance everything out over the next year do working hard on it for the last six months and you can see everything on my stock market research platform however these three components are the key Buffett investing in great businesses Delio investing in a way to balance risk no matter what happens and then you have the market who just invests in the market and that's also a good strategy if you do it constantly month after month you invest in the market no matter what you invest especially when the market is down that's also a good long-term investing strategy the key is always okay what is my investing strategy what works best for me and then you simply apply that stick to that for a long long term and then you'll do well thank you for watching looking forward to your comments and I'll see you in the next video


So, we have discussed the inversion theorem, we have discussed the Parseval formula and we have discussed the fact that the Fourier transform maps L 2 onto L 2. So, now we use these ideas of Fourier transform to solve the initial value problem for the heat equation and later we will discuss the wave equation. So, what is the initial value problem for the heat equation? The heat equation in one space variable ut equal to uxx, u at x0 equal to f of x that is the first display that you see in the slide. Let us assume to begin with the initial datum f of x lies in the Schwarz space s and let us compute the Fourier transform with respect to the spatial variable x. In other words you treat the T as an auxiliary parameter and you take the Fourier transform with respect to x. So, take the Fourier transform of the heat equation it is it is d dt of u hat in the first term. In the second term remember that minus del 2 by del x square the Fourier transform is multiplication by chi square. So, when you Fourier transform the heat equation what you get is d dt of u hat of chi t plus chi square u hat equal to 0 that is an ordinary differential equation for u hat. Of course, it is a linear ODE, but how are you going to get the initial conditions? So, when time t equal to 0 what is u hat you simply take the initial data that is u at time t equal to 0 is f of x. So, take its Fourier transform you get u hat of chi 0 equal to f hat of chi. So, you got the ODE and you got its initial condition. So, you immediately solve this ODE u hat of chi t equal to c e to the power minus t chi square put t equal to 0 and remember that u hat of chi comma 0 is f hat of chi and.  Now x of minus t chi square is a Gaussian and it is the Fourier transform of another Gaussian. What is that function whose Fourier transform is x of minus t chi square either use inversion theorem or use the fact that the Fourier transform of a Gaussian is another Gaussian with a different parameter. So, observe that e to the power minus t chi square is a Fourier transform of capital G x t and the capital G x t is x of minus x square upon 4 t 1 upon root 4 pi t. This function G of x t that has been displayed on the slide is called the heat kernel and this heat kernel plays a very crucial role in the theory of probability. Probability, stochastic processes, diffusion processes, harmonic analysis, differential geometry in all these subjects the heat kernel plays a very fundamental role. So, now that we identified what function is it whose Fourier transform is this factor we can write u hat of chi t is f hat G hat chi t recall the convolution theorem the Fourier transform of the convolution is a product of the Fourier transforms and so the last equation can be written as u hat of chi t equal to G star f hat. So, now use the inversion theorem u of x t equal to 1 upon root 4 pi t integral minus infinity to infinity f of s x of minus x minus s the whole squared upon 4 t d s. We have got an integral representation for the solution of the initial value problem. We have solved the heat equation and obtained its solution as an integral. The integral representation as I said is very important because it enables us to make estimates easily. The formula was derived by assuming that the initial condition f of x was in the Schwarz space. Now you may ask what is the initial data is not in the Schwarz space what is the initial data is in L 2 for example, how do we cope with the problem? It is very simple observe that the integral there is an x of minus x minus s the whole squared upon 4 t this exponential factor is rapidly decreasing. So, I can allow the f of s to be in spaces like L 2. In fact, even if the function f of s grows exponentially fast if it is an function of exponential type the integral still makes sense. So, what you could do is you could take this integral representation you can allow the function f of x to be of exponential type the integral will converge very rapidly. So, you can differentiate under the integral sign and you can verify that the integral still defines the solution of a heat equation with this initial data f of x. So, this is an exercise for you to check that even if the function f of x is of exponential type the formula that we obtained does indeed furnish a solution of the initial value problem that we are trying to solve. Some more exercises for example, you take the initial condition to be x squared solve the heat equation take the initial condition to be cosine A x solve the heat equation what about the solution with initial condition sin A x. So, these are some standard initial conditions with respect to which you can solve the heat equation using the integral formula that we have obtained in the previous slide. Suppose the initial condition is a continuous function which is positive on the interval minus 1 1 you got a initial data which is positive on minus 1 1 and 0 outside the closed interval minus 1 1 then look at the integral that we obtained the integral the exponential factor is obviously positive and the datum is non-negative. So, f of x is non-negative. So, the integrand is non-negative and so the integral will be strictly positive. So, this integral will be strictly positive no matter how small t is because you are integrating over the whole space and integrating over the whole space and. So, what we notice is that if the initial condition is a continuous function which is positive on the open interval minus 1 1 and 0 outside the closed interval minus 1 1 then the solution is going to be positive at all the points x t no matter how large x is and how small t is. So, it means that the effect of initial heat distribution. So, the heat distribution is localized on the interval minus 1 1 and the heat distribution is 0 outside minus 1 1 and now I could take x to be very very large say 10 kilometers away and t to be very very small say a few nanoseconds, but you will see that u of x t is going to be positive. So, x could be 10 kilometers and t could be a few nanoseconds and. So, it means that as soon as time becomes positive the effect of the heat distribution which is localized on minus 1 1 is felt everywhere in space as soon as t is positive. So, how is this physically possible? This can be described by saying that the effect of initial heat distribution is instantaneously propagated throughout space this is obviously not a physically tenable situation it will take some time for the heat distribution to propagate. The heat equation nevertheless explains physical phenomenon accurately because although t is very small and x is large the value of u of x t that you get from the integral is going to be very very small though in real terms it appears to be untenable it is a good approximation the heat equation is a very good approximation to real physical phenomenon despite the fact that the speed of propagation is infinite. Now, let us take another differential equation which we saw using Fourier transforms this time it is not a partial differential equation it is an ordinary differential equation it is called the airy's equation airy George Biddle airy studied this function the that bears his name in connection with his researches on the intensity of light in a neighborhood of a caustic. You must see Watson's treatise on the theory of Bessel's function page 188 the work dates back to 1838 before commencing on the discussion of airy's function here is a pointer to the interesting life of Sir George Biddle airy another interesting account that I read long ago was by the astronomer Patrick Moore unfortunately I am not able to locate the exact book at the moment but airy's equation is this equation 4.15 y double prime x minus one third x y equal to 0 that is the airy's differential equation now I also mentioned the word caustic what is a caustic now I do not know whether you have observed this suppose for example you have a bowl which is made of metal a metallic bowl like a stainless steel bowl for example and you pour milk in the stainless steel bowl and there is light coming from far such as sunlight or say from a from a tube light what you will see on the surface of the milk are two curves are two bright curves that you see those are caustics those are envelopes of these rays so in geometrical optics you you talk about the rays of light and these rays envelop a certain curve and that curve is a caustic so near a caustic airy found that the intensity of light must be infinite so what it shows is that geometrical optics fails near a caustic but that is all physics it is optics let us not get into that let us look at Fourier transforms and its use in the study of equation 4.15 before taking up the airy's equation let us discuss a few things that you have studied in your elementary calculus courses of how to handle this integral 0 to infinity sin x dx upon x 4.16 that is a display in the slide that you see this integral converges as we know of course we also know its value it is pi by 2 you can use Cauchy's theorem to calculate the value but the value is not important at the moment what we need to look at is how to prove the convergence of this integral 4.16 let us break up the integral into a sum of two integrals 0 to pi by 2 sin x dx upon x plus integral from 1 to infinity sin x dx upon x the integral from 0 to pi by 2 is an innocent looking integral because sin x upon x is continuous on 0 to pi by 2 you define it to be 1 at the origin so the first of these two integrals is a proper Riemann integral of a continuous function on a bounded interval the second integral that you see integral from 1 to infinity sin x dx upon x is what we need to show converges okay so let us turn to that how do you deal with this integral 1 to infinity sin x dx upon x you first write it as limit as R tends to infinity integral from 1 to R sin x dx upon x we must examine whether this limit exists or not let us write sin x as d dx of Cauchy's with a negative sign thrown in and let us perform an integration by parts of course there will be two terms in one term the derivative will shift from Cauchy's to the other factor that will give you Cauchy's dx upon x squared the negative sign will go away because of integration by parts and it will reappear because of the derivative on the 1 upon x factor and the boundary terms are cosine 1 minus cosine r upon r now cosine 1 is an innocent constant as r goes to infinity cosine r upon r goes to 0 and we are left with limit as R tends to infinity integral from 1 to R Cauchy's dx upon x squared but Cauchy's dx upon x squared is a convergent integral on 1 to infinity so limit as R tends to infinity integral from 1 to R Cauchy's dx upon x squared is simply Cauchy's dx upon x squared integral from 1 to infinity so we have seen how to handle convergence issues of this conditionally convergent integral now let us take another example before we take up the Aries function this integral will be an integral which is similar to the one that we are going to encounter so what we are going to encounter is a more complicated integral but let us take a similar one which is slightly easier so consider this integral 0 to infinity cosine of x squared dx this is called the Fresnel integrals integral 0 to infinity cos x squared dx and integral from 0 to infinity sin of x squared dx these two integrals are called Fresnel integrals they also appear in optics in connection with the theory of Fresnel diffraction I am sure you have seen how to calculate these integrals using Cauchy's theorem in complex analysis and you also know how to find the value of this root pi by 2 root 2 is the answer but again the exact value of the integral is not important at the moment what is important is how to understand whether this integral converges or diverges in fact it converges conditionally again the integral from 0 to 1 is standard proper Riemann integral we need to discuss the convergence on the interval 1 to infinity only so let us concentrate on the integral from 1 to infinity cosine x squared dx where we make the change of variables x squared equal to u when you put x squared equal to u I get the integral from 1 to infinity cos u du upon 2 root u and now the 2 is of course an innocent constant cosine u can be written as d du of sin u and again I should integrate my parts as we did in the previous example exercise show that the integral j converges but not absolutely it is a conditionally convergent integral so conditionally convergent integrals can be pretty delicate and we must now learn to handle those we would like to subject Aries equation to the Fourier transform but the main question is whether the equation has a solution which is Fourier transformable for example does it have a solution in the Schwarz class does it have a solution in L1 do we have a right to take the Fourier transform but before taking up these technical issues let us proceed formally since Aries equation does not contain a y prime term the Ronskian of any two linearly independent solutions is going to be a constant and a non-zero constant so if one solution decays at infinity along with its derivative in other words if you have one solution in the Schwarz class then the second solution must actually grow rapidly at infinity so only one solution at most can be in the Schwarz class up to multiples of course so if at all we can solve this equation using Fourier transforms if you do get a solution that solution will be the unique solution in the Schwarz class but let us set aside the question of existence let us try to formally proceed and try to get the solution once we get the solution then we can hopefully work backwards and try to differentiate under the integral sign and check whether it satisfies the Aries equation or not then we can be assured that the solution that we have got is indeed a bona fide solution so let us proceed formally let us take the Fourier transform of equation 4.15 when you take the Fourier transform of y double prime it will be minus chi squared y hat and when you take the Fourier transform of x y it is going to be 1 upon i d d chi of y hat and the resulting ODE is 4.16 the resulting ODE is chi squared y hat minus 1 upon 3 i d d chi of y hat equal to 0 the advantage is that 4.16 is a first order linear ODE which we can immediately solve and we can get a solution up to constant y hat equal to x of i chi cube now this x of i chi cube is certainly not in l 1 let alone Schwarz class it is not even in l 1 so but nevertheless let us continue arguing formally and apply blindly the inversion theorem y of x equal to integral over r x puff i chi cube plus i x chi d chi the 1 upon 2 pi factor has been ignored because my differential equation is a homogeneous linear ODE so I can ignore multiplicative constants and I can write this integral 4.17 as y of x equal to integral over r cosine x chi plus chi q d chi because the sin integral will be 0 it is an odd function so now from a purely heuristic considerations ignoring all issues of convergence etc we have arrived at this equation 4.18 the problem is that this whole derivation leading to 4.18 is suspect for several reasons first we did not know that there is a solution which is the Schwarz class or even in l 1 secondly this the Fourier transform was e to the power i chi cube it is not clear whether the inversion theorem is applicable and many other similar issues so anyway we have this equation 4.18 and let us see what we can do with it first is to inquire whether 4.18 converges at all it is a conditionally convergent integrals and we could try to prove that 4.18 satisfies the differential equation by hoping to differentiate under the integral sign suppose a differentiate under the integral sign with respect to x what is going to happen I am going to get sin x chi plus chi cube with a negative sign but the derivative of whatever is inside namely I am going to pick a factor of chi when I differentiate it twice remember the Aries equation is second order od I am going to get cos x chi plus chi cube and then going to be a factor of chi squared it gets worse earlier the cosine was actually bounded now I have chi squared cos x chi plus chi cube so directly differentiating under the integral sign and checking whether 4.18 is a solution of Aries equation is going to be problematic and convergence of 4.18 has to be established it is a conditionally convergent integral now let us now make a change of variables remember our problem integral cos x squared dx from 1 to infinity how did we try that integral we put x squared equal to u similarly here we will put x chi plus chi cube equal to s let us look at this function x chi plus chi cube that is a monotone increasing function it is not monotone on the entire real line it will be monotone increasing only on r infinity where r is sufficiently large when you make a change of variables the change of variables must be a invertible map so monotone increasing is essential so it is going to be monotone increasing on some interval r infinity and we work on this interval r to infinity so let us look at this integral y of x from r to infinity cos s ds upon x plus 3 chi squared because ds will be equal to x plus 3 chi squared d chi so d chi will be ds upon x plus 3 chi squared so the integral transforms to 4.19 the integral from 0 to r is an innocent looking integral it is a proper Riemann integral like your cosine x squared dx from 0 to 1 or sin x upon x from 0 to pi by 2 those are proper Riemann integrals so the improper part is from r to infinity now clearly as s goes to infinity in this equation as s goes to infinity this chi of s must go to infinity so now let us integrate by parts in this integral 4.19 and we are led to a simple calculation will tell you that you get 4.20 you get chi upon x plus 3 chi squared the whole cube into sin s ds you can write down the boundary terms arising from integration by parts I am suppressing that I think we will stop here okay


Где он делал? Он там ушел синим машином, когда вызнали никого его. Тебе это будет копейку спасать? Заводи, угоняй ее пока не сгорело. Там бахает? Бахает, да. У нас ебаль. Не святий птица летает, и тепок видит нас. Камазу пизда. Пизда. Газон нет, успели угнать. Камаз не угнали. Камаза нет. УК Дефенс Секретерей Грант Шапс уже наносит Pro-1. Камаза не угнали. Камаза нет. Рассказали, что у него ест. Это было в наношенном разных городах. Камаза не угнали. Камаза нет. Камаза не угнали. Камаза не угнали. Камаза нет. УК дефенд 146 млн евро more than previously announced to supply over 10,000 drones, including mostly FPV drones, 1,000 combat UAVs, as well as reconnaissance drones and uncrewed surface vessels. Ukraine's armed forces are using UK donated weapons to unprecedented effect, to help lay waste to nearly 30% of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Shaps said. He also said, I was pleased to be able to offer my firm reassurance to President Zelensky on the UK's unwavering commitment to the brave people and military forces of Ukraine. The Ukrainian military are already deploying first person view drones in the battlefield and they have become a key weapon for attacking Russian troops. The British government says these drones allow the operator the ability to finally control their movements in real time and have been successfully used to bypass Russian air defenses to hit their targets. The UK and Latvia lead the International Drone Coalition, formed within the framework of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meetings. Earlier, Martin Harris, UK ambassador to Kiev, said that UK sponsored drones for Ukraine would be produced on the territory of both countries. A participant of the Atech military partisan movement carried out a sabotage on the railway near Moscow. He organized an explosion to prevent the Russians from carrying out military supplies to the front, this is reported in the Telegram channel of the movement. They published there the footage and indicated the place of the sabotech.it is noted that the sabotech successfully destroyed the relay cabinet near the Golovkovo railway station. It is located in Selnoknogorsk district of Moscow region of Russia, this action hindered the movement of trains on the railway line around Moscow, which is used by the aggressor country for military purposes. Our goal is to stop the Putin regime's military supplies to the front line. It is possible to accomplish this. In order to do this, we need the help of people who are on the territory of the Russian Federation, Atech pointed out, calling for people to join the movement.