Here to all presents, the Mysterious Traveller. This is the Mysterious Traveller, inviting you to join me on another journey into the realm of the strange and the terrifying. I hope you will enjoy the trip and it will thrill you a little and cheer you a little. So settle back, get a good grip on your nerves and be comfortable if you can.  Our story begins in 1931. Two young men are speeding along in a car on a lonely West Virginia road at 70 miles an hour. There's a tight, tense look on the face of the driver, Steve Martin, as he takes the curves on the road without slowing down. His companion, Chuck Williams, wipes the perspiration from his face with trembling hands. He turns and watches the road behind fearfully, now and then glancing at Steve's face for reassurance. Turn on the radio, Chuck. Let's see if they got an alarm out yet. Yeah, okay. What do you think our chances are, Steve? Hard to say. All depends on how fast the cops spread the word. For a quarter of a million dollars shortly before closing time, word has just been received that the two bank robbers are now driving east on Highway 6B towards the Allegheny Mountains. That's not good. State Police Car 9, take up position at junction of Highway 11A and River Road. They're moving fast. State Police Car 10, take up position at junction of Highway 3 and Highway 6B. Steve, Highway 6B. We're on it. Yeah. That is all. Stand by for further orders. Steve, you got to turn back. We're headed for a trap. Take it easy, will you? There's still a chance.  Twenty miles. We'll never make it, Steve. Isn't there any other road we can turn off on? No. Are you sure? I was born on these parts. I know every inch of the country. Steve, let's ditch the car and cut towards the mountains on foot.  It's 40 miles to the mountains. We never make it walking. I've got to keep driving. It's our only chance. We'll run right into that trap, I tell you. They'll be waiting with Tommy Guns. We'll be dead pigeons. Okay, then we'll be dead pigeons. I give up my share to haul right now to be out of this. You've got to get me out of this, Steve. You've got to.  Look, Steve, if you were to let me out of the car and keep on going yourself, I might be able to get away. If the cops had been so busy chasing you, I'd be able to give them a slap. You lousy rat. Well, look out of my way, Steve. There ain't no use, both are getting caught. That don't make sense. You're great when it comes to sharing the dough, but when the heat's on, you want out. Yeah, but, um, what I'm to pay for, uh... You can keep my share at a bank corner. That's fair enough, ain't it? Huh?  All right, it's a deal. If I get through the dough's all mine. If I don't, all I don't. Thanks, Steve. Thanks. I'll never forget this. Come on, get out. Uh, which way do I go, Steve? Head across the fields until you hit a small stream. Then head upstream for about six miles. There's a railroad water tower there.  Thanks, Steve. Well, I'll be seeing you. Yeah. So long, Chuck. Now, let me see that paper. It says here they caught him yesterday afternoon at five. An hour after I left him. What'd you do? Run out on him? No, I didn't run out on him. I just played it smart. What are you looking at me like that for? There was no sense in both of that being caught, was there? No, I guess not. Where's the dough? What dough? The 254 grand you got in the bank job. Steve had the dough. What? Look what it says there in the paper. Go ahead, read it. Martin, when captured, told police he knew nothing about the stolen bank money. Police believe that Martin's unknown companion escaped with the loot. But I didn't fly. I didn't... Did he've had that dough when I left him? Then why didn't the police find it when they caught him? There's only one answer. Steve stopped and hid the dough someplace before they got him. Yeah, that must be it. Steve's too smart to risk being caught and having all that dough taken away from him. Poor guy. They'll probably throw the book at him. It's been so long. What happened at the trial? They gave him 25 years. 25 years? How did he take it? He didn't bat an eye. Maybe he'll think things over and squeal on me. Oh, stop sniffling, will you? Steve doesn't look kind of a guy to do anything like that. Yeah, sure. Why should he want to squeal on me? Besides, if he did, the cops would find out that I didn't have the bank dough. That it's stable got it. He wouldn't want that to happen. Sure. Well, it could be heavy. He'll be out in 18 or 19 years. Then he'll have all that dough head. I'd rather be 18 or 19 years in that dough. Well, it's been nice knowing you, Chuck. Wait a minute. Flow, don't go. What? Why not stick around? We'd make a good team. We don't need Steve. We don't, huh? And just what would I get sticking around? You haven't got brain, muscle, or dough? What's the attraction? Listen, Flow, stick with me and I'll get dough. I've always gotten what I wanted in the end. But Steve, you haven't got a chance. He had all the brains, all the guts. Yeah, and where did it get him? You notice I ain't behind bars? And I'll get that big dough yet. Three cheers. When you do, look me up. 17 years past. 17 years in which earth-shaking events took place. With the passing of time, Steve Martin became just a memory to Chuck Williams and Flo Duval. During the 30s, Chuck struggled desperately to make money in a half-dozen petty rackets, but failed miserably. However, with the coming of the war, his luck changed. And in the years that followed, he thrived on the black market. And with his new found wealth, he was able to win Flo Duval. 1948 found Chuck Williams a happy, prosperous citizen without a care in the world.   Same old flow. I guess that's what I like about you, baby. Yeah, I'll bet. Well, you've got that superior look on your face again. Who are you planning a knife now? I just got word that our old pal Steve is getting out of prison tomorrow. Steve Martin? He's only been 17 years now. It's a long time. I think I'll drive down to the prison, be there when Steve gets out. Before? You haven't bothered to write or visit him since the day he was sent up? I know, but there's a matter of unfinished business between the two of us. Unfinished business? Yeah, to be exact, 254 grand. You mean you're going after that dough that Steve has stashed away? But you gave up your share of that bank dough the day you and Steve separated. Man can always change his mind. Chuck, leave Steve alone. That money by rights is his. He paid 17 years for it. Besides, you don't need it. You got more dough than that already. Maybe so, but that isn't going to stop me from getting that 254 grand. And you ought to know by this time I always get what I go after. I got you, didn't I, baby? Huh? Remember, baby, when those gates open and Steve comes out, let me do the talking. Don't worry, I will.  Relax, baby, relax. When I get that 254 G's, I'll buy you a fancy diamond bracelet. Then you'll feel better. Hey, boss, they're opening the gate. Is that him? No, Steve's twice as big as that guy. Chuck, that is Steve. Can't be. That guy looks at least six. You're right. That is Steve. Hey, Steve. Steve, over here. What's the matter, don't you remember an old pal? Oh, Chuck. Well, I didn't recognize you at first. Well, I didn't hear a pal. I guess I'm kind of surprised to see you after all these years. Well, I've been living in South America most of the time. Only got back a year ago. I know I should have retten you, but I never was any good at that. Boy, yeah, sure it smells better out here. Come on, come on, let's get in my car. I've got a surprise for you. A surprise? Yeah, you remember Flo Duval, don't you? Well, here she is. Hello, Steve. Hello, Flo. It's nice seeing you again. Come on, Steve, get in. We're driving you to town. Thanks, Chuck. Okay, we'll expect the town. Right, boss. You don't look well, Steve. It's just this prison-poller-flow in 17 years. Well, that's all behind you now, Steve. A few weeks of good rest and good food. I'll be a new man. I'd like to believe that. Just take my word for it. I'm never wrong. Well, you seem to have done all right, Chuck. Yeah, not bad. I own a nightclub, a bowling alley, used car business, a couple of apartment houses. I can't complain. I'm glad to hear it. I'm not forgetting an old pal either.  You know, a house guest. I'd rather not, Chuck. I don't want to put you out. Put me out? Ha! Listen to the guy. Well, we got sweets, servants, everything. Steve, I just won't take no for an answer. A week passed, then two weeks, during which Steve Martin did little other than eat and sleep and take long walks. Chuck Williams played the role of the gracious host of perfection, and his guest lacked nothing in the way of comfort. So concerned was Chuck with his guest's welfare that he always knew exactly where Steve was and what he was doing. Then one day, as Chuck had known it would happen, Steve came into his office for a private chat. Are you busy, Chuck? No, no. Have a seat, Steve. Thanks. What's on your mind? Well, while I was doing time, my old man died and left me a small farm in West Virginia. That's where I was born and raised, you know. Yeah, I remember you telling me. Well, I'm going back to the old farmhouse and settle down there for a while. I see. Well, anything you say, Steve. Only let's keep in touch, huh? Yeah, sure thing, Chuck. When are you thinking of leaving? Tomorrow morning. Well, that's soon, huh? Well, we'll have to have a little farewell party tonight, okay? Yeah, fine. I'll see you later. Right, Chuck. Alex, come in here. What's up, boss? My pal, Steve, is getting ready to make his move. Guess he can't wait no longer to get his hands on that doe. Looks that way. He's leaving tomorrow morning for a small farm he's got in West Virginia. West Virginia, huh? Yeah. The farmhouse can't be more than 30 or 40 miles from where he stashed the doe. Is there any chance he might have hidden it on the farm? Nah. Cops caught him before he got that far. He hid that doe someplace off Highway 6B. How many of the boys you want me to take along? Take four. I don't want any slip-ups. Watch him day and night, and without being seen. Just leave it to me. Sooner or later, he'll lead you to that doe. And when he does, well, you know what to do. Yeah. Okay, then. You better start packing. The next morning, when Steve Martin took a train for West Virginia, two very inconspicuous men were seated at the other end of the coach he was riding in. They watched him get off the train at an all-but-deserted station in West Virginia that made no move to follow him. As the train started off, Steve hired a car to take him to the farm he'd inherited. It was dusk when he finally reached the deserted farmhouse. On a heavily wooded hill a hundred yards away, Felix and a companion watched through field glasses as Steve lit a fire in the farmhouse and prepared to settle down for the night. In the days and nights that followed, Felix and his men took turns watching Steve Martin's every action. And every evening, Felix would phone Chuck Williams and report that Steve hadn't made a move as yet. How many times have I told you to knock before coming into this office? What's the matter, Napoleon? Are things working out? I told you to lay off that Napoleon stuff. I don't like it. Mm-hmm. That must be Felix. Hello? Hello, boss? Felix. Well, what's happening? Nothing. He still hasn't made a move. All he does is fish and read. What about visitors? He hasn't seen anyone since the day he got here. Are you sure he didn't give you the slip during the night and get the dough? Not a chance. I got two boys watching a house at night. Well, maybe he knows he's being watched, and that's why he hasn't tried anything.  Uh, nothing ever goes right unless I'm running the show. I'm leaving tonight for West Virginia. I'll see you in the morning. Okay, boss. I'll be expecting you. That's a farmhouse down there, boss. Look through the field glasses.  Sitting on the porch, reading. Yeah, reading and fishing is all he does. He hasn't been more than a couple of hundred yards away from the house since he got here. Well, he must have spotted you. That must be the reason he hasn't made a move. How could he have spotted us? You can see how careful we've been. Well, I'll wait a couple more days. See what happens. He doesn't move soon. I'll have to think of something else. Leaving Felix to continue his watch over the farmhouse, Chuck returned to the village and registered at the village in. The hours that followed dragged interminably and the hatred that Chuck felt for Steve Martin grew with each passing hour. In the evening, Felix drove into the village and reported that nothing new had occurred. Four more fruitless days went by. Chuck Williams was unable to contain his fury any longer. He got into his car and drove to within a half mile of the farmhouse then walked the rest of the way to where Felix and his men were hidden on the hill. Boss, what are you doing here? I got tired of waiting. You better get down, boss, as Steve Martin's lab will spot you. Forget that. We're through playing a waiting game. We're gonna move in on him. Move in on him? Yeah. Maybe after a light workout, my pal Steve will be willing to tell me where he stashed the dough. Ah, that sounds more like it. I never did go for this cat and mouse game. Before we're through with him, he'll be begging to tell us what he knows. I found some for you. Excited to pay you a call. I thought you'd get around to it sooner or later. You don't sound very glad to see me. That's a fine way to act towards a pal who was your host for the last three weeks. Didn't I treat you right? Yeah. That's what made me figure I hadn't seen the last of you. What do you want? To give you one guess. I haven't got it. I know you haven't, but you know where it is. So what? That money belongs to me, not you. That's where you're wrong, pal. That dough belongs to the guy strong enough to get it. That's me. Okay, then you go ahead and get it. Should I let him have it, boss? That's not up to me, Felix. That's up to Steve. Well, pal, are you gonna dig up that dough for me? No.  You know I'll get what I want in the end. I wouldn't count on it. Okay, Felix, I guess it's up to you and Slim now. Hell talk. Weren't you pal? That's it, pal. Try getting on your feet. Hey, let me help you. Where's he, Felix? It's out cold, boss. You always did have a step in streak. You're thinking his condition, he couldn't take all that punishment. We give him any more, he's liable to kick off. Sure? Yeah, he's already got a couple of busted ribs and that beating around the head didn't help any. We gotta make him talk. We gotta. You have to figure out some other way. Close some water in his face. Okay. Come to, boss. Drop him up in a chair.  There. Steve, can you hear me? Yeah. Felix here wants to try the water treatment. Water treatment? Yeah.  Won't talk, huh? Okay, Felix. Wait, wait, I'll talk. Well, it's more like it. Where is it? You could never find it alone. I'll have to take you to it. Just you and me. What's the matter with Felix coming along? Just you and me. Okay, pal, okay. Only I'm wondering if you're in condition to make it. Hey, Felix. Yeah, boy. Give him a few drinks to fix him up. Right. As soon as you've done that, Steve and me, he'll be on our way. An hour later, Steve, with the assistance of Felix, started to chuck William's car and got in the front seat. Chuck slid behind the wheel and started the motor. As he drove off, he waved to Felix triumphantly. In a few minutes, the farmhouse had faded from view. Steve, huddled in a corner of the front seat, fought to keep him crying out every time the car hit rotten the road. Now, and then, he opened his pain-filled eyes to look out the window. Chuck watched him with satisfaction as he drove. How much farther is it? You drive about five miles until you reach a small gravel road where you'll see a big sign saying the Devil's Caverns. You turn right there and go two miles. The Devil's Caverns? What are they? They're a big tourist attraction in these parts during the summer. Hundreds of huge underground caverns that run for miles in all directions. I mean, that's where you stashed the doll? Yeah. It's the best place in the world. How do you know you'll be able to find it again? I know every inch of the caverns. When I was a kid, my old man worked as a tourist guide there. I learned my way around from him. Okay, but you better find it though. I'm warning you. I'll find it. Now you should be reaching the gravel road in a couple of minutes. Turn right, then it's two miles to the Devil's Caverns. This is it. Park the car in that shed over there. I sure looks deserted. No one ever comes here until June. Is that the entrance to the caverns, that door, that's set in the rock? Yeah.  Is this okay? Yeah. No one will ever be able to spot the car here. But you said no one comes here until June. No one does. I take chances. We'll need a flashlight. I got one. Come out this way. If you're thinking of any tricks, don't. Remember, I got this gun, and you're in no condition to try anything. You saw to that. How come you didn't hide out here when the cops were after you? There was no place to hide the car. The shed wasn't here 17 years ago. Tough. Now it's us that you're lonely looking place. Yeah.  You better stand over there. That does it. It seems like we've been walking an hour already. Right up ahead. You can find your way out again. All these caverns look alike to me. There's no way out. There's damp in here. What was that? Probably just a rat running past you. Place is full of them. Seems to me it's taken a long time to find that place where you hid the doe. If you're trying anything... Hold the flashlight a little higher. That's it. I hid the suitcase behind this rock. Got it? Yeah, that's it. That's it all right. I can still recognize it. Still in that bank rafters. Look at it. Over a quarter of a million bucks. What's so funny? Answer me. So the other guy always gets what he goes after in the end, huh? Yeah. Now I got the doe. And I'm asking you again, what's so funny? Go ahead, look at it. I'm looking. What about it? Yeah, you're looking, mastermind, but you don't see. All those bills are goldbacks. Goldbacks? Yeah, that's right. In 1933, the government called in all goldbacks. That's how the kidnap of Bruna Hoffman got caught. Trying to pass goldbacks after the government had called him in. You mean that doe is no good? That's just what I mean. You try to pass any of that doe and you'll end up doing time. You've known all along that doe is no good? Ever since 1933. Knowing it was worthless, I never intended coming here for it. But you may... I gotta let you have it, you rat, for leading me on like this. Well, why don't you? Come on, pick up that suitcase. Let's get out of here. Oh, uh, wait a minute.  Tell me what? I'm staying here. You're staying here? Yeah, that's right. Look, I've had enough part of you. I start leading the way out. I guess you didn't understand. I said I'm staying here.  That doesn't scare me. You see, Chuck, there was something else I didn't tell you. Something else? Yeah. I didn't get out of prison on good behavior. I got out because the doctor said I was gonna die in three months.  Yeah, that's right. I thought I'd died peacefully on my farm. Only you wouldn't let me do that. So I've decided to die here with you as company. Leave. You can't do that. You can't do that, Steve. You gotta get me out of here. You gotta. I don't have to do anything I don't want to. Get me out of here, Steve. I'll make it worth your while. I got dough. I got lots of dough. It's too bad you won't be able to take it with you. Steve, I'll give you 100 cheese. 200 cheese if you get me out of here.  But I'm gonna enjoy watching you.  Then you're gonna get desperate and try to find the way out by yourself. But you'll never make it. You'll go wandering from one cabin to another. And then in the end you'll probably wander back here to find me dead.  You'll be all alone in the dark with the rats and the bats. Stop it! Stop it or I'll shoot! And then you'll get weaker. The rats are gonna close in on you before you know it. Steve. Steve. I didn't mean it. Well, you made me. Steve. Stay something. Gotta get out of here. Help! This is the mysterious traveler again.  What happened to Chuck Williams? Oh, the poor fellow was found dead a month later when the cabins were opened for the summer tourist trade. Seems Chuck had wandered from cabin to cabin without being able to find his way out.  Goldbacks. I recall another case in which two ghosts came face to face only to discover that... Oh, you have to get off now. I'm sorry. But I'm sure we'll meet again. I take this same train every week at this time. You've just heard the mysterious traveler, a series of dramas of the strange and terrifying. In tonight's story, all characters were fictional and any resemblance to the name of an actual person living or dead was purely coincidental. In the cast were Maurice Tarplin, Joe Julian, Art Carney, Alspeth Eric, and Alan Manson. Original music was played by Paul Taubman. The mysterious traveler is written, produced and directed by Robert J. Arthur and David Cogan. Listen next week to a tale titled... Death writes a letter. Another strange and suspenseful tale of the mysterious traveler. Don't miss the chilling tale titled Seven Casks of Death, written by Maurice Tarplin, your mysterious traveler, which appears in the current issue of Die Mystery Magazine. Now on sale at your local newsstand. This program has come to you from New York. Another program of dramatic action will follow in just a minute. Stay tuned to the station for official detective. Carl Caruso speaking. This is the mutual broadcasting system.


I wanna welcome everyone who's joined us by Zoom today. I'm Janine Birchie-Johnson and one of my roles at Anabaptist Menai Biblical Seminary is alumni director. Today we're gathering to recognize three of our graduates who've been selected as the 2023 Alumni Ministry and Service Recognition recipients. This annual award honors alumni who've made outstanding contributions in congregational ministry, teaching, mission or peace work, spiritual direction or other ministries. Please join me in prayer. Empowering God with your people throughout the ages, you have called leaders for the church and empowered them with your Holy Spirit. As we gather here to celebrate the leadership of Martha Smith Good, Peter Stuckey and Jay Denny Weaver, we acknowledge your presence with them and with us. Thank you for the many gifts you have bestowed on them to be shared with your church and the world. Thank you for filling them with wisdom, patience and hope for their callings. Bless this time of celebration and continue to call each of us to serve you and your people. Amen. I'm now going to turn it over to President David Busher to will recognize the three recipients. Well, good evening, everyone. I add my welcome to all of you who have joined us today to honor three of our alumni who have made outstanding contributions through their ministry and service. If you haven't already read the story about them, I encourage you to do that to get a fuller picture of their lives. I'm delighted to present the 2023 AMBS alumni ministry and service recognition to Martha Smith Good, Peter Stuckey and Jay Denny Weaver. If you have received the certificate that AMBS mailed to you, could you please hold it up now or let us know if you didn't get it? Well, wonderful, you've all got it, great. I think we weren't quite sure how long it would take to get them everywhere. It's actually still on the way to Columbia, but he printed it on his own. Okay, I wondered about that. Thank you, Peter, for printing it out so you have the artifact there. Congratulations to you all and invite you to hold up your certificate at the end of each recognition. I'll read a short summary of each one's contributions and then each one of you will share for a few minutes. Martha Smith Good received a Master of Divinity degree from Goshen Biblical Seminary in 1977. In 1982, she became the first woman to be ordained as a pastor at Mennonite Conference of Ontario and Quebec, now Mennonite Church Eastern Canada. She went on to earn a Doctor of Ministry from the University of Toronto in 1988. In her more than 30 years of pastoral ministry, Martha served in campus ministry at Goshen College in Chaplaincy and Congregational Ministry in Ohio, Indiana, Colorado, Illinois, and Ontario. She documented her journey into ministry in her self-published autobiography, Breaking Ground, One Woman's Journey into Pastoral Ministry, published in 2012. Martha and her husband, Gerald, are members of Wilmot Mennonite Church in New Hamburg, Ontario. Congratulations, Martha, on being named one of this year's AMBS Alumni Ministry and Service Recognition Recipients. And I invite you to share a few minutes with us now. Congratulations, Martha. Oops, I think you're still on mute, Martha. Martha Smith Can you hear me now? Is this what I'm supposed to give a longer or just a few minutes? Martha Smith Oh no, you can share seven, eight minutes or whatever you'd like. Martha Smith Okay. I really appreciate getting this award. It's very honoring to me. And what I'm going to do tonight is just give a brief history of how I got into seminary and what the seminary did to me personally as a person in terms of finding my outlook on life. I was hoping to be a doctor when I was a child. That was my dream, but that dream did not come to fruition because the church I was a part of was quite conservative and did not permit high school after grade eight.  I did take a short nursing course and I enjoyed nursing but I always felt there was something much more. So I went to Goshen College as a mature student after successfully completing GED tests. And it was there that I began to find myself and find some purpose in life. But I was continuing to struggle with faith. I didn't know was I a Christian, was my faith real? Was there a God? And Norman Krause, my academic advisor was really helping me to find my own answers. He didn't give me answers. I had to find my own answers. And then when Millard Lynn came one year because one of our professors was on sabbatical, he was the one that encouraged me to go on to seminary. He said, you really need to go to seminary. Well, because I hadn't had high school, I always found academics quite difficult and I didn't think that I could handle postgraduate work but I did, I went to seminary. And I came there in 71. And when I first got there, it really felt that I had come home. It was such a wonderful feeling. I felt so, felt like I belonged and there were a lot of single students there and we mingled with each other in the dining hall over meal times and other times. We, some of our conversations were very spirited. And there was always some controversy but many good relationships were formed. And there were very few women students at the time. I think there were four or maybe five full-time women students. So we were really in the minority. And it was during some of my classes that I just kept wondering, you know, is God with me? How do I, how can I know that? And it was one day when I was reading the Old Testament and I was really disgusted with Israel because they kept falling away and God kept bringing them back, falling away. And I remember speaking out loud in my apartment saying, what's wrong with you? And it was like I heard a voice that said to me, I have been with you all your life and you haven't recognized me either. And it was at that point that I could, there was a real shift in my thinking and that's when my real journey began. I think into beginning to accept myself and to know that my faith was indeed real. So I continued with my studies but I was always kind of wondering, should I go into ministry? Hospital chaplaincy appealed to me because I was comfortable in a hospital setting and I wanted to, I could continue with that. I knew the Mennonite Church was not into ordaining women at that time. That was in the early 70s. And one of the faculty members suggested to me that I go into a summer internship in a congregation and I protested. And because I didn't think I could do that, face the opposition and he said to me, well, he said, you women have been talking all year about how women are supposed to get involved. Now is your opportunity, you can go improve yourself. And my comment to him was, I don't think I need to prove anything. I just want to make sure it's God's call. And it was also during my second year at seminary where the women began, about seven women I think began to meet in my apartment once a month for lunches. And we would begin to discuss some of the articles that were appearing in some of the papers about women in theological education. And that was really, really helpful for me because I began to find, began to discover that I was really feeling oppressed in a Mennonite church that had only male leadership and never seemed to understand what the woman's journey was like. And the seminary administration got a little curious and a little distressed because we were meeting. And so I was called into the president's office to explain what was happening. And I said, well, if you really want the community here we'd be happy to speak to the larger community, which we did. And what came out of that was, of course was developed for women in leadership at the seminary. But I think the most important thing that happened to me was just the interaction with the professors. Gertrude wrote who was a wonderful mentor.  And Millard Linde, he just kept believing in me and believing in me and kept encouraging me. And it was such a positive feeling. I remember the last week of seminary just before graduation, he was Junot Millard. How he kind of shumbled down the hall. He came up behind me and put his arm around me and said, Martha of all the students who are graduating this year, I would choose you to be my pastor. And that was very important. So after that, I went into the congregational minister most of the, for quite a few years. But I would have to say it was, it was a seminary community that brought my life to more of a holistic approach in terms of physical, spiritual and emotional. And I give the seminary a lot of credit for that because I am who I became today because of what happened to me personally at the seminary. And I think at this point in my life, I can affirm that the journey had its struggles, but I think the positive experience is far away the struggles. And so again, I thank you for recognizing my ministry with this honor. And I pray that the seminary will continue to prepare students for ongoing ministry in the church and beyond. Thank you. And here is. Thank you, Martha for your sharing and your rich story, your journey in calling to ministerial leadership. We're grateful for you. Our second recipient this evening is Peter Woodstucky. Peter received a master of divinity degree from Mennonite biblical seminary in 1971. In 1973, he returned to his home in Columbia to join in Mennonite ministry efforts there. And for 28 years, Peter has served as the pastor of Teosiccio Mennonite Church, a church that his parents founded in Bogota. In the past, he lent his skills to the Mennonite Church of Columbia serving as executive secretary and president. He's been involved with other Mennonite related ministries in the country, including Seminario Bibico Menonita de Colombia, Mencolnes, a social service agency, Use the Paws, the Center for Justice, Peace and Nonviolent Action, Clara, the Latin American Center for Anabaptist Resources and various ecumenical peace-building efforts. Peter has also served with international organizations as a member of the executive committee of Mennonite World Conference and at the International Steering Group of the Decade to Overcome Violence of the World Council of Churches. Peter participated in writing the declaration and ecumenical call to just peace, which was adopted by Mennonite World Conference, sorry, the World Council of Church members in 2011 and recommended as a document for reflection, collaboration, and action for the worldwide Christian community. Peter and his wife, Leticia Rodriguez, are members of Teosiccio Mennonite Church in Bogota. Congratulations, Peter, on being named one of this year's AMBS Alumni Ministry and Service Recognition Recipients. And I invite you now to share for a few minutes with us. Okay, thanks a lot. Like Martha says, I'm very honored by this, but also I think unfortunately for the seminar you're very limited by only choosing three because I'm sure there are other folks that are just as deserving and more so than I am. So just bear that in mind. We do what we can in life and so far God has given me the privilege of serving in the church and serving God. Janine suggested that we share a little about what the seminary meant, our seminary formation. And I'd like to talk a little about the professors. I think one of the lasting impressions I have about the seminary are the professors that were there. These professors were not only highly, highly skilled and highly educated and well-formed, but they were also friendly. They were also almost like a family. They kept us in mind and I remember being in Erlen Waltner's home and with them we not only learned the seminary curriculum, but I can mention I think almost all of them from Gertrude Rote and Screak Class and Leland Harder and the Church and Ministry and J.C. Wenger and the Theology and John Howard Yoder and the Preface to Theology and Jake Enns and the Old Testament and Clarence Bauman and so many others, Bill Klassen and they were, I spent quite a bit of time at Bill Klassen's house and I think he died recently or a few years ago, but all these folks were so important in not only what they taught, but they were also mentors and they were people who were approachable and who shared their knowledge, C.J. Dick and well, all of them. So I think they were also examples to us and so that was a very important part, maybe as important as the academic part was just the personal relationships we had. We would share over the bag lunches down in the basement and they were also very tolerant. I was a little out of, what should I say, out of orthodoxy in my way of my style of life and so forth, but that always accepted me. I would come to, especially in the summertime, come to the seminary with shorts and no shirt and maybe a cat on my shoulders and stuff and nobody worried very much about that. So that was very good. I also appreciate the anabaptist focus of the courses. Obviously something like Hebrew with Miller Lynn, you can't give up, I don't think you can give up very much of an anabaptist focus but I didn't do so well in Hebrew actually, I didn't get such a good grade. But other courses like Preface to Theology was taught from a Christocentric point of view, theology from a Christocentric point of view and of course J.C. Wangers and C.J. Dick's history and all those kind of courses were focused in, well and as much as the course can be I guess with an anabaptist kind of twist or view or perspective. And so that has stayed with me. And then the other thing I wanted to say is that the professors also supported like extracurricular activities that had to do with ministry. So for example, I was licensed as a pastor at Hively for a couple of years, as a two-year licensing to work with the young people. And then C.J. Dick particularly was helping promote church community services as it was starting. And I became the coordinator for church community services. This was about in 60, 68 I think.  So I drove that around, that must have been one of the ugliest cars made but it worked. And so that was sort of the church community service car. And then Leland Harder was quite involved with getting partly Dave started. There was a coffee house for street kids and for sort of having dialogue between the church people and street kids or yeah, basically that. And so Lauren Friesen was, I think he was maybe the first manager and John Campan then and then I was. And Leland was helped get that going. There's the Presbyterian church and the Methodist church and the Hively Avenue church were sort of behind that and people would come in to sit with folks and chat with them if they wanted to and listen to their stories. And so, and I mentioned in the article that Jenny wrote up was we also, it was during the Vietnam War and I had come from Indiana University with that kind of concern. And so we organized a silent vigil that we were gonna do in front of the post office. I had participated in a small silent vigil in Bloomington on Saturdays from 12 to one with Quakers. And so we decided to do one in Elkhart. Well, Elkhart isn't your most liberal town. And so that caused quite a hubbub that we were gonna do this and so forth and like we couldn't get permission and stuff. But I don't remember if we finally got permission or not but we went to the US post office there on Main Street and we would line up like a yard apart, right? And just stand there and we had a sign that said what we were up to and why we were there. And, you know, down in Bloomington maybe it was maybe five or six of us that were there. And here in Elkhart, I mean, we just got a multitude to come out and so it was all in front of the post office and around the corner and way down the block. And so people on Elkhart, I guess they didn't like very much that the town officials were trying to prohibit it and trying to keep us from doing it and so forth. So they joined in and then of course there were sort of people taking pictures and all that, but that was supported by, I think it was Lee Harder also who sort of backed us up in doing that and helped plan it. So that was very significant too, how the seminary not only academically taught us but enabled us to enable this to do different things. So after I finished seminary then I was at, because church community services was during my seminary and then after I finished seminary, I was at the coffee house and then I also went up to afterwards I went up to Clarence and Alice Baumann's Hermitage up in, well, it's around Yale, British Columbia and the camp there, the Vennonite camp and then you go up into the woods and that was more or less where I felt the calling to come back to Columbia, which made me very happy because I was missing Columbia actually. There was sort of an empty spot in my heart for Columbia and Latin America. So I did come back and that's not the end of my story but that's the end of my intervention. Thank you, Peter, for your sharing. It's always a joy to connect with you and thankful for the times we've had over the years to be in the same place and share together. Thank you for your sharing, for your ministry, for your life and work. We celebrate you tonight. Thank you. Our third recipient of this year is Jay Denny Weaver. Denny received a Master of Divinity degree from Goshen Biblical Seminary in 1970. Denny interrupted his seminary studies to serve with Mennonite Central Committee in Algeria. After getting his Master of Divinity, he earned a PhD from Duke University in Durham, North Carolina in 1975. He had teaching assignments in several Mennonite schools of higher education and his professor emeritus of religion at Bluffton, Ohio University where he taught theology, religion and ethics for 31 years. Jay Denny served on peace and justice committees for both Mennonite and ecumenical organizations. He led workshops for Christian peacemaker teams, now community peacemaker teams and participated in three CPT delegations to Haiti. Jay Denny has written or edited more than two dozen books and numerous scholarly articles on topics such as peace theology, Christology, the Atonement and Anabaptist theology. His autobiography, New Moves of Theological Odyssey is being released by Cascadia Publishing House this fall. Jay Denny and his wife, Mary, attend Madison Mennonite Church in Wisconsin. Congratulations Jay Denny on being named one of this year's AMBS Alumni Ministry and Service Recognition Recipients. And we now invite you to share for a few minutes with us. Oh, thank you. That's my certificate, excuse me. As Peter and Martha said, I am grateful to AMBS for recognizing my work in this public ceremony. Thanks to Jeanine Bertie Johnson for making this day happen and to President David Beauxart for his gracious words. This award is actually better than being named a saint. Saints are dead and I'm still here to be able to say thank you. AMBS has been with me throughout my career but not always in the way that I had originally thought. I went to AMBS with the goal of pursuing an academic career and I graduated with two major academic complexes in mind. One was the Old Testament material that I learned from Millard Lindt. Here was where it became clear that the Bible starting with the Old Testament had a plot line that began with Abraham and continued through Jesus. That learning served me well throughout my career. The second idea complex that I graduated with was Anabaptist history and thought which I learned from CJ Dick and JC Wenger. My years at AMBS was an epoch when Anabaptist studies were very popular and I went to graduate school intending to be a professor and specialist of Anabaptist history or theology. Another impact of AMBS came when I began to teach as is true at small colleges. I had to teach courses that were not in my area of specialty. I had to teach theology for which I had no graduate school training but I did have one resource from AMBS, the informally published edition of John Howard Yoder's preface to theology lectures. I had taken the course at AMBS and the printed version became by initial source for teaching theology. It was and still is my primary learning from Yoder. Over the years from teaching theology, theology became the primary focus of my academic interests and writing. From preface to theology, I learned that all theology is relative. That theology always reflects a context and as context change, theology is always subject to revisioning and rethinking as a woman as theology once told me, God never wrote any theology. All theology is written by people and until recently by men. Since it's written by people, of course it can be revised, she said. The focus of my career became developing a theology specifically for the peace church in contrast to standard theology that came from the established church of Christendom.  As I developed theology for the peace church, I was looking at that project as an in-house discussion for Mennonites and other peace churches as marginal to mainstream churches. Out of curiosity, I wondered how other marginal groups might look at the same issues. From that course in the Black church, taught nearly two decades earlier, I knew that Black theology existed and I knew one name, that of James Cohn. Reading a book by James Cohn changed my worldview. From reading Cohn, I realized that my approach to theology was actually dealing with issues of concern to all Christians. I realized that I was writing theology for all Christians and I hoped that my Mennonite colleagues would understand that they were included. In a sense, all these impulses came together when I recently read J. Cameron Carter's race, a theological account. He wrote that the seeds of racism entered the theological tradition when the early church fathers separated Jesus from his Jewishness. He advocated a theology that built on the narrative of Jesus that continued the story of Abraham, but extended it to all people. With my learning about the Bible's plot line beginning with Abraham, about the relativity of theology and the existence of Black theology, when I imbibed James Cameron Carter, I was still drawing on my AMBS learning. Beyond the academic preparation of AMBS, for my years there, I gained lifelong friends. Some like me went on to graduate school and academic careers and we frequently conversed about the state of theology for Mennonites. Other friends from seminary became pastors. I've always assumed that writing theology was not an isolated activity. Theology is written for the church and it is done in conversation with the church. Having friends as pastors was an important element of doing theology in conversation with the church and was a long running benefit of studying at AMBS. As I hope these brief comments display the learning I received from AMBS and a lifelong impact on my career. Since I do cherish this award, thanks again to all who made it happen. Thanks Jay Denney. So good to hear from you in reflection on your journey as a scholar and church leader. Thank you.


Hi and welcome to the session. Let us discuss the following question. Question says, using integration, find the area of the triangular region whose sides have equations y is equal to 2x plus 1, y is equal to 3x plus 1 and x is equal to 4. First of all, let us understand that area between two curves or we can say area enclosed by two curves is equal to definite integral from a to b fx minus gx dx. Now in this formula a and b are points on x-axis where these two curves fx and gx intersect each other and fx minus dx multiplied by dx is the area of the strip drawn vertically in the area enclosed between the two curves. fx minus dx is the length of the strip and dx is the width of the strip. So total area enclosed between the two curves is given by this formula. So we will use this formula as our key idea to solve the given question. Let us now start with the solution. Now we are given three equations of line that is y is equal to 2x plus 1, y is equal to 3x plus 1 and x is equal to 4. Now let us assume that abc be the triangular region enclosed between these given sides. So we can write that abc be the triangular region enclosed by the given sides. Let us assume that this is the equation for line ab or we can say site ab. So we can write equation of site ab is y is equal to 2x plus 1. Equation of site ac is equal to y is equal to 3x plus 1. Equation of site bc is x is equal to 4. Let us now name these equations as 1, 2 and 3. Solving 1 and 2 we get coordinates of A as 0, 1. Similarly solving 1 and 3 we get coordinates of B as 4, 9. Now solving 2 and 3 we get coordinates of point C and coordinates of C are 4, 13. Now plotting the points A, B and C on the graph we get triangle abc whose area is to be determined. Clearly we can see area of triangle abc is equal to area of trapezium oacm minus area of trapezium oabm. So now we can write area of triangle abc is equal to area of trapezium oacm minus area of trapezium oabm. Now area of trapezium oacm is equal to definite integral from 0 to 4. We know coordinate of x at this point is 0 and at this point is 4. So we can write definite integral from 0 to 4, 3x plus 1 dx. If we draw some vertical strip in trapezium oacm such that its width is equal to dx. Then area of that vertical strip is equal to 3x plus 1 multiplied by dx. We know length of the strip is equal to y of this line minus y of this line, y of this line is 3x plus 1 and y of this line is 0. So we get length of the strip is equal to 3x plus 1 and width of the strip is dx. And this whole area of trapezium is equal to definite integral from 0 to 4 3x plus 1 dx. Similarly we can find area of trapezium oabm. It is equal to definite integral from 0 to 4 2x plus 1 dx. Halfly we can see limits of these two integrals are same. So we can combine these two integrals. So we can write these two integrals as definite integral from 0 to 4 3x plus 1 minus 2x plus 1 dx. Now this is further equal to definite integral from 0 to 4 x dx. Simplifying this bracket we get x. Now this integral is equal to x square upon 2 and limits of the integral are 0 to 4. To find the integral of x dx we have used the formula integral of x raise to the power n dx is equal to x raise to the power n plus 1 upon n plus 1. Now value of x square upon 2 at 4 is equal to 4 square upon 2 and value of x square upon 2 at 0 is equal to 0 square upon 2. Now this term will become 0 and we get 16 upon 2 minus 0 which is further equal to 16 upon 2. Now we will cancel common factor 2 from numerator and denominator both and we get 8 square units. So required area of this triangle is equal to 8 square units. This completes the session. Hope you understood the solution. Take care and have a nice day.


miles of dense green forest southeast of Madhya Pradesh. This is Bastar, the home of tribals from time immemorial. A journey through Bastar is just like stepping through time between our present and prehistoric past. Bastar is as old as the hills, a part of the Dandakaranya mentioned by Valmiki in the Ramayana. This is the biggest district in Asia, 15,224 square miles in area, where about a million tribal people or Adivasi people live, the Marias, Halwas, Payas, Daralas and Bhutoras. A joining Bastar are three states, Maharashtra, Andhra and Urusa. One comes across 50 or 60 huts suddenly after miles of dusty track. Bastar sways in the unspoiled life of love and rustic beauty, but urban habits are permeating slowly, steadily. The staple food of the tribals is rice, jowar and kulkhi. Other than this, forest produce any animal that comes their way. Mahawa, Landa and Sulphi are the favorite alcoholic drinks, and oh, how he enjoys his drink and smoke. And then the trance. 60% of Bastar is covered by evergreen, rich dense forests, which grow rare and valuable soil and teak. Burn and slash, this primitive method of cultivation, known locally as Pendu, is on its way out with the advent of the plough. This is Ghotu, a dormitory of the young, removed from the village. This is the place where young men and women learn the art of living and loving. For the gay timers, I know I am beautiful, but last minute touches are always welcome. And I am proud of my mate too. And finally, a drink before the dance is a must in an Adivasi home. Eat what you will, the rest you take to the market. Yes, the market day is a very special day. People from distant villages flock here and barter forest products, vegetables for salt, jaggery and cloth. Bastar has seen its time of glory too. The ruins tell the story of Nagavanshu, Chalukyas and the Null rulers. Tribals have their own deities, temples, and the priests who are held in high esteem. Tribal or not, death is inevitable. A stone for the dead and gone, and the morning goes on for 10 days. The creaking wheels of time have brought them to a point where the road to the new world begins. A tribal would utilize the services of a young one at home, rather than send him to the earth-floored schools where he learns and understands the disturbing documents that civilization brings. But the scene is changing now. There is doubt whether the new one or the old magic medicine man is good. Even when due to malarial climate and unhygienic conditions they have grown, never needed it nor his forefathers. But just to face the new world, he must have one, otherwise he may be taken for a stricter. From Tom Tom drums to Tare Takka is a big stride. Just strike here and zoom comes the response from the outer world and it sounds good too. Bastar cannot boast a very fertile land, but it can be improved. That is why men who know have come all the way and the results are fabulous. The hump of the bull, the Baladilla hills are virtually King Solomon's mine for any developing nation. This mountainous terrain of Bastar is an inexhaustible storehouse of iron ore and other rich minerals which the world needs and Bastar has. Probably this is the beginning. Bastar never had a good road, leave alone a railway line or a train. Bastar has an answer to the world's ever-growing demand for timber and forests here are getting attention on a priority basis. The bell metal industry is as old as Bastar itself and now it is prospering with new urban patronage. Kosa is an indigenous silk product of Bastar and it has caught up with the changing patterns of life to suit the fashion-conscious world. The folk arts of Bastar are also fast-feeding the needs of urban society. There lies the road to progress and Bastar is on its way.


Hi, everybody. Welcome to Stanford. And as Arun said, I lead the Institute for the Environment on campus. And it's a wonderful partnership with the Institute for Energy recognizing that there's kind of this inseparable link between where we are with the environment, where we are with climate, figuring out how to solve the climate challenge, and how we deploy energy to meet people's legitimate needs, at the same time we don't do irreparable damage to the environment. I've been really impressed at the questions that folks have asked so far. They've really hit all the key issues that we need to understand. How do we move forward in an environment where there's still, I don't want to say uncertainty, there's still skepticism about whether climate is a problem that warrants the level of focus that is going to be required. How do we deal with the negative externalities of new technologies, and particularly how do we deal with the social and equity issues that come up whenever there's a massive transformation. Another really important component that we need to keep on the radar screen is that there's some fundamental mismatches in the trajectories of the change that we're only beginning to grapple with. Arun showed you the IAEA estimates of the fraction of coal remaining in the economies of China and India by mid-century, and they were like half of the energy still coming from coal in those countries at the middle of the century, when we've already characterized a lifetime carbon budget that requires us to be at essentially zero emissions at the same time if we want to be anywhere close to the 2C target in the Paris agreement. So what I want to do is basically step back through what we know about the climate challenge, where the uncertainties are, how to think about the way that impacts scale as we move from lower amounts of warming to larger amounts of warming in the system, and kind of set the stage for the way to think about impacts and the consequences of stabilizing at one level or another. Normally in this kind of presentation I would talk substantial about where the emissions are coming from and the kinds of levers we might have in terms of finance and technology and policy to address those emissions, but following me Rob Jackson, who's a real expert in the emissions landscape is going to speak to that. The photo I have here is Stanford's first large-scale PV array. This one's in Kern County. It's a 50 megawatt array that provides about a third of the campus energy and the next big PV array is just about to go online, and it'll mean that Stanford is getting 100% of its electricity from these renewable sources. It's an interesting and complicated confirmation of the rate of change. I think the power purchase agreement price on this array is a little over two and a half cents a kilowatt hour, with the new one in Fresno County it's going to be a little under two cents a kilowatt hour. So it's essentially providing electricity at half the price of fossil, but that's California and in most of the world what we're seeing is that emissions from fossil are still going up. So what I want to do is is really dig in to where we are with understanding the climate challenge and what we can do about it. It's the plot of global mean land and air temperatures over the last 140 years or so, showing really profound warming. As Arun said, it's about 1C now over the 20th century average, about 1.2C over the pre-industrial level, very rapid warming in the last few years. One of the things that's really striking about this is that pretty much every one of those big spikes in temperature has been in an El Nino year. During El Nino years the ocean is less good at taking up heat and it really illustrates the way that the pattern of warming is kind of a dance between the external forcing that's being imposed by the additional greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the internal processes that regulate the earth system. I'm not positive I'm going to be able to show the next simulation but what I'd like to do is show you the the spatial pattern really highlights the importance and I think in order to do that I need to apologies for one second here I just need to present or unfortunately okay well that really helped me a lot. I'm gonna forget that okay I'm not gonna show you the the spatial pattern but what's what's really important to understand is that the spatial pattern is really driven by this strong gradient from the equator to the poles with the most profound warming by far occurring at high latitudes. A lot of the reason there's been so much concern about Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula in recent months because the warming there is really two to three times what it is in the rest of the world. I want to step back and take you through the trajectory of how long we've understood the basics of the climate challenge. This is the cover sheet of a of a really good paper I recommend reading. This paper by Svante Arrhenius, brilliant Swedish chemist, was published in 1896 and the title is on the inflows of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground. 1896 so more than 120 years ago Arrhenius knew three important things. He basically knew all the things we need to know to know that emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere will warm the earth. He knew that carbon dioxide is a absorber of infrared radiation. It's a strong absorber of radiation the wavelengths that objects the temperature of the atmosphere surface. He knew that a warmer climate would create an atmosphere that held more water vapor and he knew that water vapor is also a greenhouse gas that absorbs infrared radiation and that this extra water vapor in the atmosphere would amplify the effects of the carbon dioxide. The third thing that Arrhenius knew in 1896 is that in the long run any CO2 that was emitted to the atmosphere would eventually partition between the atmosphere and the oceans with about 80% of it ending up in the oceans. So with those three things understanding the IR absorption of CO2 the water vapor amplifier and this partitioning of carbon dioxide between the oceans in the atmosphere in 1896 Arrhenius was able to calculate how much warming you would expect from a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Didn't get it exactly right. He was about one and a half times greater warming than we expect now but all the pieces of the physics were there. All the foundations of the understanding and in 120 years people have been challenging this again and again and again in tens of thousands of publications and nobody has found a fundamental flaw. All the climate science research since 1896 has basically been looking at nuances at things like the spatial patterns at factors that amplify the response a little bit in some places and suppress it in others and that fine-tune our understanding of what levels in the atmosphere the different processes are occurring. And you know when we think about the level of confidence we have in in this process the forcing of climate change by the emission of greenhouse gases from human activity we really understand this process at a level of completeness that's you know for example the level of completeness we understand how an LED light bulb works or an electric motor. This is fundamental understanding that has been reinforced through thousands of papers over many decades. The idea that there's something controversial about the role of humans in causing climate change was really eliminated decades ago and the idea that there's core uncertainty about whether humans cause climate change is really a process of a political dynamic and not of a scientific one. You already saw the plot of the CO2 profile and CO2 has been measured with high accuracy since the mid 1950s and Montelot Observatory in Hawaii and many other locations around the world. This is the plot from last month where the number was just over 410 parts per million rising from about 315 parts per million in 1957. We know that over the last 800,000 years atmospheric CO2 has typically been around 275 parts per million in interglacials and about 185 parts per million in glacial. So we've seen about a 40% increase in atmospheric CO2 and the consequences of that are that the atmosphere is trapping extra heat and that heat's being distributed between the atmosphere and the ocean and we're seeing it in global temperatures. I guess I'm not going to be able to show the the spatial and and seasonal pattern of the of the CO2 and the temperature because of the of the computer but I recommend you look at these these Ed Hawkins simulations at some point. They show a wonderful spiral of the seasonal and inter-annual pattern of CO2 concentration and temperature and what they really highlight is the way that emissions have accelerated and warming has accelerated especially since the late decades of the of the 20th century. We also know with a very high level of confidence what processes are responsible for the warming. Unfortunately I'm not going to be able to to show this simulation either but it was done by by Eric Rostin in in business week and it and it really very beautifully shows if we look year by year from the end of the 19th century at the actual pattern of temperature and we look at the potential contribution of that from solar forcing from volcanoes from land use change from aerosols and from greenhouse gases what we see is overwhelming evidence that it's the greenhouse gases that are the dominant factors natural factors all together expected to cause a modest cooling of the climate and we really have a detailed understanding of the physics of the way that each of the possible factors interacts with the atmosphere and can disentangle them in a way that's that is about as settled as this kind of issue can be you know there's still uncertainty there's still important questions to address in the dynamics of the way the climate system works but those are those are questions of nuance and questions of detail not of the fundamentals. Here's the overall pattern of where we are in terms of the total forcing of climate change since the middle of the 18th century and as Arun has already pointed out there are important forcings of climate that are coming from carbon dioxide but from other compounds as well so about two-thirds of the forcing is coming from carbon dioxide and of the well-mixed greenhouse gases the other three important classes are methane nitrous oxide and halocarbons. Methane has three important sources it comes from methane production as Arun has already characterized it also comes from agriculture and from natural wetlands. Methane emissions have been going up rapidly recently with increased sources coming from all three of those from the natural gas production agriculture and wetlands a real challenge to manage especially on the agriculture side where the set of technologies is much less mature than the technologies for reducing CO2 emissions Nitrous oxide is an especially challenging greenhouse gas about 300 times as powerful as CO2 on a on a weight basis lasts in the atmosphere for a long time the atmospheric half-life is about 300 years and it's a result mainly of the way we do agriculture especially in animal production manure management and fertilizer treatments a real challenge and then the third important set of well-mixed greenhouse gases is is halocarbons refrigerants and these are compounds that are also very very powerful in terms of their greenhouse gas forcing some of which last in the atmosphere for a long time some of the changes that we made in response to the Montreal protocol to decrease destruction of stratospheric ozone ended up with compounds that actually were worse for climate and the new Kigali amendments are intended to address that some of the clear successes are in managing these halocarbons but there's still real challenges ahead as you know we have been losing ozone in the stratosphere as a result of the the halocarbons and and as a consequence there's less warming from stratospheric ozone than there would have been if we hadn't been destroying the ozone but there's more warming from tropospheric ozone because we're producing ozone in the troposphere as a consequence of other pollutants that we're releasing near the near the ground. One of the most important things that's happening in the climate is that we're not seeing the consequences of all of the greenhouse gas forcing from the well-mixed greenhouse gases because aerosols which are also a result of industrial activity are in most cases producing a negative effect a negative radiative forcing they're tending to cool the climate so the net result the total anthropogenic forcing we're seeing is a little more than two watts per square meter about one percent of the total energy reaching the earth surface and in rough terms the total anthropogenic forcing is now about the same as the CO2 forcing with these aerosol impacts more or less offsetting the effects of the other well-mixed greenhouse gases. Somehow we never seem to be able to escape from the narrative that maybe changes in solar radiation are having some kind of an effect on the long-term trajectory of global temperatures but you can see here that the solar irradiance effect is is truly tiny taken over time and if you try and ask about other kinds of mechanisms that might be related to solar irradiance and there's been a popular theme in the climate skeptic community about a possible role of of galactic cosmic radiation there's simply no evidence that takes it out of this this size range of of being totally a trivial driver. We have had important effects of land use change on climate and basically the the deal that's happened with land use change is that humans have cut down forests in many parts of the world and in general the landscape that's left after the forest is cut down is slightly more reflective than the landscape that was there when the forest was there and that's resulted in a in a small net cooling of the consequence of land use change. One of the really interesting themes in ongoing research is if we want to use natural climate solutions better stewardship of ecosystems to address climate change are we better off growing new forests where there weren't forests protecting forests where we've got forests now or allowing deforestation to continue and one of the really challenging patterns is that there's some places where growing forests actually makes the climate warmer even though the forests are taking carbon from the atmosphere they're also making the surface darker and absorbing more of the radiation. Okay, a really really important constraint on the way we think about solving the climate problem is that warming from carbon dioxide is essentially permanent. We know that warming from CO2 lasts for at least 10,000 years unless we actively remove the CO2 from the environment. What that means is that we've got a forever budget for whatever temperature Arun showed you the budget for 2c this is the budget for having a 66 probability of keeping warming below 1.5 c and the budget's around 2,800 billion tons of CO2 forever from the start of when we emitted till the time we stopped and the amount that we've emitted so far is a little over 2,200 you guys can do the math that means that the remainder is for a 66 chance of being below 1.5 around 570 Arun said it was around 800 for two and the emissions rate is around 40 and if emissions are to continue at that rate that means that we've got 13 years seven months until we're essentially committed to 1.5 we have a few more years if it's two but the real challenge is how do we go from that understanding to e-carbonizing on a timetable that's consistent with it and the bottom line is that you guys are going to have to figure out the answer we have a lot of technologies we have a lot of understanding but we also have a lot of constraints and I hope this week is going to be um um compelling introduction yeah do you have a question you know that's the uh 20 trillion dollar question we we we have known uh for a long time that climate was changing in fact I mean one of the things that's um well I I guess it's frustrating is if you read the arenas paper he actually concludes by saying and uh you know it's really kind of cold and miserable in the UK and in northern Europe and maybe we'd be better off if it was a little bit warmer and um and and and that theme of argument has been slow to disappear but I think that it it's really only been in the last few years that there's been a truly broad appreciation that climate challenge is is associated with impacts that are really going to be a unacceptable constraint on people's legitimate aspirations for a better life and the first report on climate change risk to the United States was in 1965 uh the first major report from the National Academies of Sciences was in 1979 the first report from the Intergovernmental Panel was in 1990 and so why is it that the transformation from core scientific understanding to really global mobilization has extended over so many decades and you know I think there's some there's some psychological reasons that it's difficult to accept the idea that things need to change I'm sure there's been some dedicated misinformation from various actors on the stage who have a vested interest in seeing things not change and uh the genuine technology issues that haven't yet been solved and I think a lot of the motivation for having a session like this is that if there's one thing that's clear it's that we need to work on all those we need to work on the psychological aspects we need to work on the the messaging and the disinformation and we need to work on the full set of enabling technologies whether they're in the finance or the or the technology or the or the adaptation uh huh yeah sorry thanks um some tipping point takes place and then some some um accelerating cycle kicks in but if I look at the scale that you have on there it almost shows that every hundred gigaton added it leads to the same amount of temperature change so it almost negates it's almost linear yeah it's almost yeah so is that is that fair to say that from from the science itself it is almost linear and and and there is no such a thing as a tipping point no uh the first thing you said is correct the the response of temperature to emissions is essentially linear but the impacts to temperature is not linear and that's actually what I was going to talk about next um the there there are three kinds of tipping points that I think we should be focused on one is a tipping point in whether the warming is self-sustaining or not whether we see releases of greenhouse gases from the earth system that that sustain the warming independent of whether there is further emissions the second kind is is tipping points in terms of impacts where um and seal rises the best example we pass a threshold where we become committed to very large amounts of seal of arise whether or not the warming continues and then a third I I think is tipping points in terms of the ability of society to keep cohesive enough that it can really realistically tackle the problems and I'll speak to each of those okay um let me let me just start out by saying I think the fundamental question isn't whether or not we can stabilize it 1.5 or or two but it's really whether or not we live in a world of ambitious mitigation where we stabilize somewhere at the low end of the range or a world of continued high emissions and in IPCC speak um radiative forcing of 2.6 watts per meter squared is ambitious mitigation uh continued high emissions is is radiative forcing at the end of the century of something like eight and a half watts per meter squared and you can see the contrast in temperatures where with um a world of ambitious mitigation we we see additional warming sort of on the scale of the warming that we've already seen in the last century we can imagine this world and we can imagine a set of steps that can allow us to adapt in a in a thoughtful way to it even though there be fundamental changes and and deep challenges that need to be addressed this world of continued high emissions is one where when we talk about impacts we're really so far outside the range of experience that it's hard to say anything particularly meaningful and it's a world that is a nightmare in in many respects not the least of which is that in the world of continued high emissions you can see it in the in the orange plume on the upper part of the scale we are at the end of the century not only something like four and a half sea warmer than pre-industrial but we're warming at about two tenths of a degree sea per decade and that continued warming is is perhaps the the most concerning aspect also want to identify two parts of the time sequence you can look at the global average temperature trend and the contrast between the world of ambitious mitigation in the blue and continued high emissions in the orange and what you see is that there's a period of the next few decades where they really don't diverge significantly it's a consequence of the inertia that's built into the global energy system there's simply no way that we turn off emissions tomorrow and there's no way that we turn off the geophysical processes that are driving global temperatures so you can kind of think about this as an era of climate commitment you know we we are going to see increasing impacts we need to deal with those impacts through adaptation but then especially after about the middle of the century we're in an era of climate responsibility where choices we make today and choices we should have made a decade ago really drive profound differences in the outcomes and a lot of what we need to think about is how we want to deal with this era of climate commitment where we need to make investments in adaptation at the same time we make appropriate investments in the era of climate responsibility okay so let me just highlight that we have in the last 20 years or so profoundly moved out of the era where we think about climate change as something that's a likely future impact that's going to affect someplace else in the world now we've seen climate change impacts that are widespread consequential we've seen impacts on every continent and the oceans we've seen impacts from the equator to the poles and from the coast to the mountains here's a map from the last IPCC report of the places that climate change impacts have been observed and attributed to human actions and we've seen impacts on natural systems we've seen impacts on biological systems and we've seen impacts on on human systems i'll just introduce you to a couple of the kinds so food production we can look at the global trajectories of crop yields for the all the major crops and we can figure out based on historical patterns whether the major crops like a little warmer or a little cooler where they've grown and what we see is that most of the major crops are now grown in areas where the warming that's already occurred has decreased yields that's been true for for wheat over the last several decades it's been true for barley over the last couple of decades it's been true for corn over the last couple of decades we have already seen less increase in yield climate change impacts on agriculture in the past 20 or 30 years fires one of the one of the clearest examples and how many of you from california okay well one of the things that that you really see is just a feature of california life unfortunately increasing is these horrific wildfires wildfires across the western u.s. have been increasing the the increase over the last 30 years has been about a 10-fold increase in area burn on an annual basis these are the the 20 biggest wildfires in california history in terms of the damage and these are the ones that have occurred in the last two years absolutely striking pattern and if you say how much of that is a consequence of warming that's already occurred you see this striking pattern where fuel dryness is substantially higher in the last few years and you can then feed that into a climate model and say okay well if we run counterfactual without warming how many fires would we have had and you get the the black line you say how many of we actually had is the the red line and the difference between those the component that's due to anthropogenic climate change is in the yellow line and that is telling us that we have now reached a point where the anthropogenic component of fire risk of area burned in the western u.s. is approximately the same as the as the natural component we have doubled fire risk in the last 30 years or so really striking pattern let's see there's one other element of the current impacts that is too important to pass up and and it's economic inequality so really beautiful work by Noah Diffenbaugh and Marshall Burke published earlier this year took advantage of the observation that in in most places that are currently cool if you look at the variation in economic activity with temperature historically you see that warm years yield to slightly higher economic output cool years lead to slightly lower in places that are currently hot warm years lead to slightly lower economic output and cool years lead to slightly higher if you simply feed those historical patterns into the climate changes that have occurred over the last several years what you see is that the climate change that we've seen in the last 30 or 40 years has dramatically increased economic inequality around the world because the countries that are currently hot are also the countries that are currently poor so what we've seen is that poverty in the hot parts of the world has been exacerbated by the climate changes that have already occurred and you can see that in the in the top two figures here where this is plotting percent change in in GDP per capita and if you look at the the left-hand figure from 1961 to 19 to 2010 you can see that across the equatorial band we've seen increases in GDP driven by the climate changes that are on the order of minus 20 to minus 40 percent where in cool parts of the world we're actually tending to be in the in the positive frame increasing in in economic inequality and that's what I wanted to speak about as the as the sort of social driver of the tipping point I'm going to stop here I'd love to take any questions and I wish you the very best with the energy at Stanford and with your work in solving this problem moving forward yeah let's see I don't know if you're on wait for the microphone or shout so yeah the last part um which is the slide that we're on was pretty interesting how you were able to correlate the temperature the temperatures of different regions to the economic prosperity um could you explain more how you like how you did the calculation how you how you get that yeah so this is a really beautiful powerful technique for microeconomics which essentially takes advantage of the fact that a year-to-year wiggles in temperature occur more or less independent of the other things like political dynamics and and global trends and so basically all you do is for every country in the world just say if it was a you know point 05 warmer this year what happened to GDP if it was 0.1 cooler what happened to GDP put those all into a big database and what you find is this pattern where for cool countries you know warmer years lead to increases for hot countries lead to decreases and then that that gives you this hump shaped response if you then put the hump shaped response into the actual historical trajectory of temperatures this is what you get so this is simply reading out the historical trends as they overlay the actual change in climate so it's not using the the trend in GDP and GDP in most of these countries that are shown in red has has continued to grow it's that the climate change impact has held it down below what it would have otherwise been could you speak into the microphone so i'm just curious what about the converse where um cooler countries get colder does it lead to lower growth where cold well i've colder countries aren't getting colder there they're getting warmer and you know that the the implication of the statistical pattern is that if colder countries were getting colder that it would hold back their growth as well of course the actual pattern is that the most rapid warming is occurring in these northern latitudes where the colder countries are and and in earlier work from this group it it turned out that the the temperature optimum for economic activity was about the annual average temperature of san francisco so for those of you who are not from california that's potentially good news but it also means that in california we're beginning to tip over the edge into the zone of of eroding economic growth with with warming i might be able to take one more question but i'm also right at the end of the time one more if you could wait one second for the microphone so you mentioned earlier the systemic inertia and obviously there's a lot of factors that go into that social political everything else but let's say tomorrow a miraculous consensus descends upon world leaders and we all decide this is something we're going to make a priority what do you think is a realistic timetable for how quickly we can correct course well the question of how much we want to spend i i think a fair way to think about this is that most entities are are really really opposed to early retirement of whatever the assets are so if someone built a coal fired power plant and they inaugurated it yesterday and it has a 40 year lifespan i think we can expect emissions from that plant maybe not 40 years but more than 30 uh every fossil fuel vehicle that is going to be produced next year we can expect to have a life of 10 to 15 years and i think it's the real driver of the maximum pace we can transition is going to be controlled by you know when's the last time we inaugurate the fossil fuel powered whatever into the economy and how long does that last one of the things you will hear quite a lot about in your experience at stanford is opportunities for carbon capture and storage and i think that there are some ways that we can begin to hold co2 out of the atmosphere but at least at this point the economics aren't pointing to those being the most attractive option thank you so much


So, as everyone knows, ARDC is the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy capability, meaning we are funded by NCRS. And so it's really important around the attribution of ARDC's co-investment to take place. So ARDC project investment recipients are required to attribute the investment to ARDC and NCRS on the platform or data project that's being produced. And in the marketing communication materials, including talks, posters, presentations, brochures and websites. There is an investment identifier or DOI. So ARDC will provide this, so it's required to publicly identify ARDC's investment. The identifier will be provided by ARDC and the project team will be advised of the DOI as per our policies and procedures. So how to attribute ARDC's co-investment? In line with NCRS acknowledgement guidelines, we've got a line that we recommend for attributing the investment. So it's the project received investment and will provide you with the DOI, which will resolve to the project page. From the Australian Research Data Commons and ARDC is funded by the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy. So we'd like you to ask you to please use this text together with ARDC and NCRS logos in presentations, websites, etc. So we have an ARDC attribution style guideline, which is the visual version of this. And on the screen, you'll see a horizontal lockup and a vertical lockup with an example. This is one partner logo. Obviously, there are more partner logos involved in this project, most projects. So we also have a version which shows multiple partners and co-branding. And I've just got an example here of a website to show you, which is the Eco Commons. And you can see ARDC and the line of text next to it as well as the NCRS logo. And that's at the bottom of the screen. We've had some questions around using some other communications and marketing activities such as Twitter, LinkedIn, video or infographics. There may be others. So if you've got questions, please email us. And as they pop up, we'll add this to the slide deck. So with Twitter, we ask you to please tag ARDC. And if there's space, there's a hashtag for NCRS impact. With LinkedIn, there should be plenty of space on post. So you can include both Australian research data commons can be tricky to find. So if you could please tag us, that would be great. With videos, we would ask for attribution at the end, an end slide to the video along with all the other partners. And if possible, a verbal attribution. And with the infographics, we know there's limited space. But if possible, at the bottom of the infographic would be great. We also ask that you acknowledge the use of ARDC products and services that are used when you use them. And this includes, you know, co-invested platforms or virtual laboratories, which should provide a copy for. So NECDA research cloud general users and also if there's specific cloud node that's been used, we ask you to acknowledge that use. So we have a range of attribution and acknowledgement guidelines. These are all available on our website to download and there's links there. So they include a guide for copy acknowledgement of our services, which was NECDA and some of the platforms, etc. Virtual laboratories, etc. And there's also the star guideline, which is more of visual and there's logos to download. And then we would ask that you send all our work and communications to our general email, which is comms at ARDC.edu.au to review before publishing. And just while I've got your attention, I'd also like to just talk about project communications as well. So when you're obviously received investment and you're running the project.  That's a kick kick start up or a kickoff article. You may also like to consider a project comms plan for your activity, potentially a website page or a suitable page landing. Collecting emails from interested researchers along the way. So that might be used. You might be able to use that for user testing feedback or updating on the progress of the project. Social media posts might be interested in and PowerPoint presentations and branding when you speak to other organizations as well. And I would also like you to consider keeping in contact with ARDC after the co-investment funding period ends. As Adrian was saying, this reporting that goes on afterwards. And some of this activity that comes out around the broader impacts is really goals for ARDC. And we'd love to be able to promote impact stories that result from this sort of activity. I just provided an example project comms plan template that may be useful to some groups. Some some already have comms teams, etc. that have this sort of these sort of tools. And I just wanted to run through some of the ARDC channels that are available to our investment co-investment projects and programs, which are a national at a national level. So we'd like you to help us tell your story. We have will provide you with an ARDC project website page with a DOI link that results to it. We have our ARDC Twitter account where you could tag us and the hashtag for increased impact. The ARDC LinkedIn page as well. We have an ARDC blog on our website where we write regular stories. So if you think about if you have a story to share, is there a call to action or something you would like people to do? We're really keen to send people in a particular space to make them aware of the project, but also get them to do something, whether or not that's, you know, join a community practice, fill in a survey, whatever it is you'd like people to do. And we have ARDC connect newsletters that go out once the first of every month, which has major stories as well as other events and jobs. And then on the 15th of every month, we have a what's on newsletter, which also has events, you know, registrations, jobs, etc. that we could highlight to people. So the comms team is really looking for project milestones to promote in advance. So if you know about things in advance, we'd love to hear about them to give us time to prepare and produce materials, etc. We're looking for high quality images of the impact from the projects or activity. Or we might be able to arrange a photographer if there's enough notice. So it might not be the building of the thing, but, you know, if there's researchers out there that are using it, that might make great story that we could use. We may be able to get a photographer out if there's something great to capture. And researchers are end users. We're always looking for researchers or end users who are helping to develop the activity or use, you know, might be using the platform to show impact of the project. So that's what we're looking for. So, you know, when and how to contact IRDC communications. When you have a project milestone to announce, you know, are you looking for a target audience to take action, such as sign up for an event, etc. That's when you can contact us. And all project marketing communications collateral written a logo acknowledgement to send to us to review. And I've just provided the email address there. So that's it from me very quick.