These are the weavers, the pattern makers, the keepers of the wolf and wolf. Even as we watch, the pattern emerges, the squares are completed, the circles joined, and more is woven here than cloth. Dreams are made here, and hope, and a thousand promises. Behold them at their task. The weavers, the pattern makers. More than cloth is made here. Look closely, and observe the pattern for tomorrow. The National Broadcasting Company in collaboration with the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation presents Pattern for Tomorrow. The fourth in a series of programs describing what we believe to be one of the most significant developments of our time. The growth of the South. To witness this growth, and to catch on our tape recorders the voices and the sounds of this latter-day revolution, we made a pilgrimage. Set out like some youngest son and the old legends to see what hills lay beyond the hills. Our guide and companion on our pilgrimage is NBC correspondent Henry Cassidy. Mr. Cassidy. For those of you who are just joining us on our journey, let me point out that I'm a stranger to these southern roads, these hills, these soft accents, and gentle ways. I was born in New England, and some of my early memories are of facing into wind and snow, and struggling down the little road that led from my house to school. The land, rock, strewn, and gaunt, was as hard as the history of the people who built the stone walls and wooden houses, and stood defiant before the storm. As a journalist, my way was to lie along many a twisted road, Paris, Moscow, Casablanca, but there was one vast area I did not know, the southern part of my own country. So I was pleased to learn that I had been chosen for this journey through the South, a journey in search of facts, of information, of truth, perceived more easily perhaps because of my ignorance of the region. When one has few preconceived notions, the way to learning is sometimes easier, and so it was with us. We had not been long upon our way when one aspect of the New South thrust itself upon us, much as the pyramids or the colossus of roads must have burst upon the ancient traveler. This was a new industry that had but lately come to the south, textiles. In the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, we saw huge buildings where they told us a decade or so ago, folks used to hunt rabbits and the creatures that move at night. We heard the hum of giant dynamos, watched freight cars heavy with textiles with new synthetics and fabrics to bring envy into the eyes of the can of cafe. Whence came this change? Where are the beginnings? Why this change now and here? For the beginning, let's go to the pleasant sun-splashed office of Mr. Sadler Love of the American Cotton Manufacturers Institute. It was at Charlotte, North Carolina, autumn had come and the land that stretched out beyond the windows seemed warm and rich with the bounty of the season. The dying of the year seemed to bring a time for reflection, for seeking out the beginnings. Why, Mr. Love, I asked, why this renaissance in textiles now? Where are the beginnings? Of course, as you probably recall from your history books, the south had very little industry prior to the Civil War. This was an agrarian, an agricultural economy. It was almost exclusively farming and industry was spotty. There were a few plants, but they were scattered around over the south. There was no major industry, as we know it today, of any type, textiles or any other. Well, now we're back about 1865, are we? Yes, we're back to Appomattox. And then what happened then? Well, after Appomattox, the southern soldiers came back from the war and they found an area that was devastated. We don't want to refight here, the Civil War or the war between the states. But at the same time, we might point out that an English writer of about that time said that the south was the most devastated area ever occupied by an English-speaking people following 1865. Now, it was to that sort of a home that the southern soldiers came back. And I think, without any reflection on our foreign neighbors, we could say that the south had no marshal plan. Instead, we facetiously say down here that we had a Sherman plan. Now, the Sherman plan was burnt cities, destroyed farms. Now, it was in an atmosphere somewhat like that, that the textile industry first began to grow in the south. Now, you might well ask, if the area was that devastated, how did it grow? It grew like this. It grew by the installment sale of stock to withers, orphans, ministers, farmhands, bankers, schoolteachers, and others. It sold for 50 cents to a dollar a week. And from these very, very small installment payments, the textile industry began. I'd like to cite for you the fact that, as far as we know, the cotton textile industry has had the largest percentage increase in average hourly earnings since 1939 of any major industry in America. Now, that means more than just a larger paycheck. That means better shoes for more children. It means that more children go to school for more years. It means that textile boys who once went into the mill at perhaps 16 years of age to work on our road scholars. There were others to add to this story. Men trained to watch the shifting ways of economic growth. This new development has not escaped them. They have come and watched, and in the manner of a physician who presides over the growth of a lusty boy, there is pride as they talk of the progress. Listen to Professor James A. Morris, Professor of Economics at the University of South Carolina. It's a matter primarily, of course, of cost. The most important cost in the textile industry is labor cost. And since there is a difference in labor productivity and in wages between textile plants in New England and in the South, that appears to me to be the most important factor. There are other savings available in power costs, taxes, but labor cost is the major factor, I think. We can state that South Carolina is now the number one cotton textile state in the Union, with North Carolina second. In terms of woolen and wisteds, whereas about 15 years ago, there was just about none in this part of the country. Now about 10 or 15 percent of the capacity is here. In terms of synthetics, all of the new plants are being built here, and I would say perhaps 75 percent of the industry is in this part of the country. And now there is something new to be added to a story whose beginnings are lost in time. Stretch back to the day when some ancient Chinese philosopher craftsmen first pondered on the slender but curiously strong membrane that came from a cocoon. Synthetics. Man made thread as infinitely subtle as silk itself. It was Mr. Love again who gave us the story. The majority of this great growth of recent years has come about from the synthetics industry. As you will recall, it's only been relative to a few years ago for those of our particular age era that the ladies were talking about silk stockings all the time. You put me way back too. You haven't seen any silk stockings lately, have you? I haven't asked. I think you'll find today that practically all stockings are now on. You won't find any cotton stockings either. We might as well admit to start with. Yes, cotton stockings are about as common these days as a bargain basement bustle and about as hard to find. It was at the huge Selanese corporation plant near Rock Hill, South Carolina that we got the second half of the story, got it from one who as much as any other perhaps has followed the development of synthetics in the South. Mr. Alex Rose, manager of the Sel River Plant of the Selanese Corporation of America. The development of man-made fibers, that has been the reason for the pronounced increase in the textile industry in the South. The raw materials for our industry are wood pulp and cotton lenders, both sources of cellulose. That is the basic material from which this acetate fiber is made. Cotton, of course, from the Southern States and wood from which pulp is made from the Northeast and the Northwestern part of the country. Could you tell us a bit about the development of the process itself? That is how it came about. Well, this process was developed originally in England. The first American plant was located at Cumberland, Maryland. This is the third plant in this country built by the Selanese Corporation and is the newest and largest acetate plant in the country. How about the industry as a whole? What would you say is the future of the textile industry in the South? I feel very optimistic about the future of the textile industry in the South. It would seem to me that because of the many advantages the South has, labor, taxes, natural facilities that plants need such as water supply and so forth, I would think that the future is extremely bright. Of course, the old survived. You see it on the long plains that sweep down to the rivers. You see it crated and bailed and musty smelling on the docks. Cotton, white and clean and beautiful as though nature tried to recompense for the snows that bring their loveliness to other lands. Cotton, you could write the history of this land in these tiny bursts of whiteness, small enough to be held in a man's hand, huge enough to leave their mark across half a continent. Time seems reluctant to surrender in these fields, but even here we can mark the change. Listen, the sound of a motor has replaced the music. The energy released from gasoline does the work of the muscular shoulders and the strong hands. Listen to this, here is how cotton is planted this year of Grace 1954. A number of years ago, we used to use mules, plows, manual labor, and now we have converted over to tractor farming completely. Bill Foreman, owner and manager of the huge lakeside plantation in Proctor, Arkansas. Bill, what does all this mean in terms of men and ours? By this mechanization, we've been able to reduce the number of men from 150 to nine. Well, it takes a man for each machine. In other words, on this farm we have nine tractors, it takes nine tractor drivers to operate the operation.  Now, here he is coming right now planting these four-row cotton. In other words, we used to have to plant with one row by mule and then we had the two-row mule planter and this saves us all that labor now. In other words, we have one man who would do the work of four on a job like that.  What of the bull weevil and his always hungry cousins? How goes the fight? Well, the cotton gets the rank that we can't pause them by tractor. We have to pause them with plane. See, they get right down on the cotton. The wheels are right in the cotton. And put that pause now. They have a spray machine and they spray it. That really gets those bull weevils through. And another voice, J.C. Huffman. No newcomer to these long fields. He began raising cotton when there were still men around who could tell you first hand of Chancellor'sville and Gettysburg. Here is one who was looked on the old and the new. When I first came to Arkansas, we farmed with mules. Now we have changed to equipment, tractors, cotton pickers, and other equipment that goes with it. But as we said, time is reluctant to surrender and memory has its leechmen, even as they present in the future. Mr. Huffman, how go with you the new ways? I still like the old farming way. Not too much this way. But Mr. Huffman, I suspect, stands alone or almost so. Even as he spoke, the future seemed to crowd down upon us upon these sun-splashed fields in the soil, rich with the promise of the coming crop. We deal now in new words, tech structure, power supply, facility of transportation, and a hidden ingredient, a subtle thing that has to be charted and analyzed before the full story can be told. It was Jake Craig Smith, president of Avondale Mills in Silicon Cargo, Alabama, who carried on the tale, who first told us of the things that cannot be understood in terms of economics alone. Cotton mills generally all have the same type of equipment. The textile industry has no patents, which of any consequence. So we feel that in order to make a better product, that we must emphasize the attitude of the people who operate those machines. In each department, we have a bulletin board on which we are placing the name of the person who, during the past week, produced the best cloth. And we feel that recognition, which comes to those who are doing the better quality work, results in an improvement in our quality. In our company, where we have a partnership arrangement and where all of us profit or lose together, the recognition takes on a very concrete shape after the profits have been made. Yes, I was going to say, Mr. Smith, that if I had my choice of having my name on that bulletin, or getting a little extra money, I just might take the cash. Well, that's possibly true, Mr. Cassidy, but I'm not so sure that the standing that you would have in our mill wouldn't be just as important to you as a little more money in your pocket, if that's our theory. Move farther south, cross the line that separates South Carolina from Georgia, and the story is the same. J. M. Cheetham, President of Dundee Mills in Griffin, Georgia. Mr. Cheetham, perhaps I could ask you, would you give us a general survey of the role of the textile industry in Georgia? The textile industry happens to be Georgia's number one industry from the standpoint of payrolls, employment, and value of goods produced. Then it's textiles that's the main livelihood of the people of Georgia. We think so. How old, Mr. Cheetham, are the Dundee Mills? Our company was started in 1888. And then your old citizen of the South, of the company is? Well, we feel like we are. Do you find any changes among your employees? Well, I think all down the line, we're getting a little more progressive. Our working conditions continue to improve, and we see a better feeling all the way around. Do you actually live in the city, in town? Approximately half of them live on our own village. And the other half, I'd say, is split equally between the city proper and live on farms. Quite a few of them own their own places out in the country. And do they work their farms as well as work in the mills? Yes, with an eight-hour shift, you can see that there's plenty of time left to raise a few cows and plant a few acres of grain. But it's gaining in popularity because it provides an extra income that oftentimes proves quite beneficial. And there were other voices to tell us this story. I remember one afternoon when I wandered out into the yard that stretches behind the huge Avondale Mill at Silicoga. There I met Mr. Wiley Jones, a worker in the mill. We chatted for a while in the manner of two persons whose paths cross for a moment. And then Mr. Jones, it developed, had been working in the textile mills for more years than one cared to question. He had seen the old and the new. How much I asked him, did you make when you first started work? I made 60 cents a day for 12 hours. 60 cents a day? A day for 12 hours. And what were you making when you got through? I was making a dollar and 55 cents an hour. More per hour than you made per day when you began. And I suppose you've seen a great change in working conditions. Well, I certainly have. No comparison in it. The first mill that you ever worked in, do you recall it? In Converse South Carolina. What was that like, Mr. Jones? Well, it was just a mill and threw up houses. The houses were rough lumber, boarded up and down, painted white with lime. Any light? No lights, no electricity. I had to use the old oil lamp. And it was a queen? No, sure it was. Well, how about the last place you worked, Mr. Jones? What did that look like? Well, it was modern enough to date to village. I lived in the village until just before I retired and I bought me a home outside of the mill village. But I can see that here there is no longing for the good old days. No, no, no, none, whatever. All this, of course, has echoes far beyond this factory yard. It changes the production plans of an automobile manufacturer in Michigan. The founding ticker machines that register supply and demand show an upswing in buyers of meat, bread, copper piping, insulated windows, oil paintings. It can be measured in the lower incidents of TB, in the new science building going up on the campus of the still young college. It's almost unbelievable the things that are being done in the south. Now, this is William H. Greer, executive vice president and general manager of the Rock Hill printing and finishing company, a division of M. Lowenstein and so on. He speaks softly. But for those who listen closely, there is the sound of thunder. Here are words of a revolution, no less than those of Jefferson or of Franklin. That we haven't had before. In fact, it's almost unbelievable for a person in our plant that wants his child to go to college, that he can't get some way to get that child to college. We have a scholarship program here and we are just one of the few companies that have this scholarship program. We insist that our people send their children to college if they want to send them to college. Well, it looks to me, Mr. Greer, as though this is an excellent example of enlightened management when you're able to give your workers better homes, better food, better education. And in the long run, I would suppose that from that, you get better men and a better product. I don't think there's any question about that, sir. In the past, of course, the center of the textile industry in this country has been, in my part of the country, in New England. But of late, the balance has begun to change. Lower taxes and abundance of water power and ample labor supply. Whatever the reason, the scales are beginning to reach a balance. Listen to this voice. It's the voice of the New South, confident, assured, no longer paying tribute to an ancient debt. Dave Crampford, his name is, an employee in the finishing plant at Rock Hill. He spoke for himself, but in a larger sense, for all young people in the South who have turned their backs on the past. People seem to think that the North is still a little ways ahead of the South, but we feel down here that we can do just as well as the people in the North. And if they are ahead of us, they aren't very far, and we're catching up, and we're catching up fast. Music Back December, 1949, I purchased a house from Avondale Mills, and I bought it on a plan that I could pay for, and not be in a strain. This house cost me twenty two hundred dollars. I paid two hundred and twenty dollars down. My payments are eight dollars a month. The company pays the insurances and the tax, and at any time that we need money to make any improvements, we have a credit unit we can go to, which is operated through Avondale Mills. Well, when we first began working at Avondale, we didn't accumulate for a while, wages were low, and we just got over depression in the United States, but we joined the Avondale Mill Credit Union and began having so much deducted from our salaries each week. And then we paid for a house in the village, and at the present time, we're paying on the one we live in, have been living in fifteen years, and have done about two thousand dollars with an improvement on this present home we're living in. We have two children, a boy and a girl. The boy's ten years old and the girl's twelve. They both go to Comer School, B.B. Comer School. One is in the fourth grade and the other is in the fifth. They play ball at the Comer playground. They have a chaffer room that takes care of them while they're playing these games and also sees that they get away back home. They have uniforms. B.B. Comer School, Tiger. I have a fifteen-year-old son that's in the B.B. Comer Memorial Band, and he wears a uniform with a Comer signal. He's a wonderful man. She said, he's a wonderful man. Now there's a spontaneous introduction that any of us I think might cherish. Donald B. Comer, chairman of the Executive Committee of the Avondale Mills. Many honors have come to him in his long and adventurous life, but none I venture to say more gracious than the few words of one of his employees. Donald Comer, one who has looked down the past but planned always for the future. I grew up in Barbara County, Alabama. It was on a cotton plantation, and at times I thought that I would be a cotton planter. And when after coming home from the army and... What war was that, Mr. Comer? The Spanish-American War. Your two wars ahead of me. And I went back to the plantation with my older brother. And was there when my father was elected governor. And at that time he asked me if I wouldn't leave the plantation and come to the Cotton Mills while he went to Montgomery, Alabama. And so I changed from agriculture to industry almost overnight. But your father then, Mr. Comer, was the actual founder of the Avondale Mills at your chairman of the Board of Now? He built the first unit in Birmingham, Alabama in 1897. So you have had the experience of going through life with this whole textile industry in the cellar? That's pretty well, yes. Could you tell me a little bit about the actual development of that industry? Well, the general impression might be that the textile industry moved from, we'll say, the north of New England into the south. And because primarily that we had sheep wages and long hours and child labor. But any agricultural country seeking to be more self-supporting turned to the first step in industry, which is to make something to wear. So it was only natural for the southern farmer to want to manufacture here cotton good with his own labor. And now we spend about 80% of the cotton in this country in the south. In this change, Mr. Comer, do you see any change in people? Most marketer so. When I first went into the mills in 1907, for instance, the wages were a dollar a day. Hours were 12 hours. People made just enough money to buy a bear amount of food. A cotton mill wicker in any area in the south compares with the wickers in any other industry. They have their hair curled and they visit the beauty shop and they have the fashions in the different magazines to guide them in their clothes making. And so now people are enjoying all the good things that come from good wages and short hours. Mr. Comer, what is this I hear described in your personnel policy as partnership with people? How does that work out? Well, in 38 we tried what we generally call profit sharing. And in 41 we put it into every plant we have. And we've always been pleased to call that a partnership plan because the first thing that they ask you is, well, what do they do when there are no profits to share? That is that ours is a partnership and that the best and the truest partnership in life that we know of is marriage. Where two people join together for better or for worse, for richer, for poorer. And so we feel it in working together, they're going to be some bad times. And we're going to have to share those as well as the good times. How does it work out to a man? Suppose I went to work today in your mill. How would my partnership with you work out? You would not begin to share a partnership in any oilings until you had worked three months. Then we set aside out of oilings if there are any oilings. 5% for the stockholders on their investment. Then we divide 50-50 between management and employees for any other oilings beyond that. It has run all the way from as high as 41% increase to as low as nothing over these periods since 41. What would you say then is the future for this new South? How do you look at it? With this improved agricultural program with our more and more making in the South, the things that we need ourselves, I think anything that helps us and increases our purchasing power, increases our economic standard, makes us the buyers of the things that are made in the rest of the country. As we grow, we feel like we are a better part of the United States and therefore the United States would be a better place. Well, Mr. Comer, everywhere we've been going, we've been finding these enthusiastic reports of improvements for the people. Is there anybody in the South who longs for the good old days? Well, maybe when I was a younger boy, I used to think about the days on the plantation that we'd read about and I'd sort of wonder if I couldn't have had a better time back there, but I think I'll have a better time now. You like these good new days? I like the good new days. The good new days, it was a refrain, the chorus of a song that we heard over and over again. Not older, but the good new days, not yesterday, but today, tomorrow. Swiftly, they work and ensure the weavers, the pattern makers, the keepers of the wharf and woof. They have waited patiently for this, waited during the long years of darkness. They do not pause those with the swiftly moving hands, the steady eye that marks the ever-growing pattern, for they know that more than cloth is woven here, dreams are here and hope and promises, and the pattern for tomorrow. You have been listening to Pattern for Tomorrow, written and directed by William Allen Vales, produced by Ms. Lee F. Payton, and presented in cooperation with the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. This has been the fourth in a series of documentaries on the new South. Next week at the same time, our story, the development of the citrus industry. It is planned that other programs will deal with the remarkable growth and changes in other sections of America.


This analysis we have done for monthly basis we illustrate that for quarterly basis in excel so that you may get to know all the steps of calculations in an effective manner. So let us see same process actually suppose you have a quarterly data for say last say 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 years data you have and quarterly data are been given to you now. So you have to make forecast for the next year 2007 say 2008 say 7 only. So what is the steps now as per the previous examples what you have to do you have to calculate the quarterly average first, quarterly average first, quarterly average for each quarter same way like monthly average you have calories and write it and I have removed take the transpose of the I have taken the transpose of the data now quarterly I have kept in this column manner. So take the quarterly average of the data then this is quarterly average this is not the final index the third step the index is that you know what you do then you take the overall average overall average of the data. So you will get some value suppose here you will get some value you divide each quarterly data by this particular value overall average you will get the index index for each quarter this is the up to third steps. So you have calculated look at the average of each quarter step 1 then the overall average by taking all the data put together how many data you have now say 8 into 4 32 data you have now. So total 32 quarter you take the average of them you will get whatever the value you will get quarter average divided that by global average or overall average you will get the index it is 91 percent here it is 1.29 30 percent extra here it is 8 percent extra here it is 30 percent down look at quarter 4 data if you look at the quarter 4 data the sales are low but quarter if you look at the quarter 2 data sales are high suppose it is a agro product or fertilizer product and Mansoons they have a high sales where quarter 2 belongs to Mansoons season so they have a high sales and in September also to some extent you know processor going on for the agriculture sector so you know they need more fertilizer on the agrochemical sector so you know in quarter 2 and quarter 3 you will find good amount of sales suppose. So therefore index are high but interestingly here in the previous case you had 12 period right like January to December and that is been repeated every year because data are been given monthly basis so total 12 index you calculated right and the sum of the all index should be 12 but here you have 4 quarter now so here the sum of total 4 index you will have to calculate based on the previous data or past data but the sum of them sum of them should be 4 now in earlier for 12 months data you had a total 12 the sum of the index should be 12 but here it is 4 if not 4 how to do calculations I will show you in excel the proportionate part suppose here sum of them is 4 you got the index and 5 1 9% less in January quarter was a first quarter April quarter and 30% extra and this we found the index say this is what third steps you got the index what is the next next is the make the forecast for the annual year forthcoming year that we are going to calculate what is the next year 2007 right say 2007 question was given to us calculate 2007 and 8 look at the 2007 annual forecast I have written as 98 and 2008 annual forecast 100 how come we found using regression line or the train line I will show you the calculations we are following the quarterly average or simple average method let us see so what you have to next step is the annual forecast so what you do 2007 take the annual data of each year annual data of each year you take the sum you will get the annual sales or whatever or demand say for the 2019-99 then 2002 2001 this way you can calculate the sum of each year annual sales and this is what your annual data sets for each year use the regression line say 2009 say 1999 you can predict as 1 2 you can consider as a representative say 3 4 like this way and then you can make the forecast this is a Y and this is suppose X so you use them as a independent or dependent will use the regression line or train line will get the forecast for the 2007 2007 will forecast you will get that would be your annual sales of 2007 but that is not the final what you have to do you have to divide that by 4 because 4 quarter are there so you will get the you know the annual state line prediction 2007 state line prediction right as 98 by 4 then 98 by 4 then 98 by 4 then 98 by 4 so this is what the steady forecast or vision lights forecast but that is not the final you have to multiply the index again so it will be like this it will fall down because not 100% you are utilizing it is below than 100% so it will be like here then it will go up then it will remain between like this and then it will again fall down so this is the pattern of the data because this particular second quarter it has a 30% extra in first quarter it has a 10% 9% less so the forecast will be like this the what about the forecast we are getting multiply the corresponding index same way we will get the forecast for the next quarter here is the calculation you can see so you can see the index the average quarterly data we have calculated here and the global average we have calculated here whatever you can take I will show you next cell then index we have calculated and then using regression we got the 2007 forecast 2008 forecast we will get 100 and then if you divide that by 4 you are getting equal prediction like distribution but this is to some extent as I mentioned it is just decelerized prediction on the straight line but that is not the final predictions what you have to do you have to make the forecast as per the index the weightage so multiply the weightage multiply the weightage we will get the index like this this is what the forecast for quarterly data let's illustrate this using Excel now let's go to Excel so we have come to the Excel sheet now so this quarterly data monthly data we have already understood quarterly data also understood but I will illustrate only this quarterly data analysis for your detail information so let us see the data set I believe the Excel is visible to everyone so here you can see the you know all 8 years data are been kept whatever the data I have shown in PPT that I have kept here in Excel now firstly with the average of each quarter, so I have taken the average of each quarter look at here average of each quarter, average of each quarter, average of each quarter step one then step two global average. Average of all otherwise we can take average of all whatever you can take all them we can calculate all them average of all this data also you can calculate all will be almost same this is what your calculation of the overall average data, right? The average forecast of the overall data. So, we found that then what is the next step, third step index? We divide the quarter average by the global average. So, you will get the index, correct? Index for each quarter we found it. Look at here, 29 percent extra here, first quarter 9 percent less, 91 percent. So, 9 percent less, the sales are 9 percent less as compared to second quarter. So, this is what I have shown you, but if you look at this index now, this part I am going to explain in excel now, which I have not discussed in the PPT, but here you can see the index that we have calculated the four quarter, the sum of them should be 4. This is my data, because four quarter you have 4, for the monthly data some of them should be 12, I have already mentioned that. In case if you have a data say missing data or some outlay or some calculation mistakes you have done or some you know analysis are not able to do because of you know, non-affiliate of data or you have put some interpolated data or average data. And in case in case you found that your average total sum of the index for each four quarter are not 4, what you do? You calculate the proportionate value. Suppose this value you are getting say 3.75, suppose you found, suppose you will not get most of the cases you will get 4 or say 4. something, suppose you found this, then in that case what will be your actual index now? So, what do you do? You take this say 0.9157 out of what? 3.75 into 4. So, out of 4 how much you calculate that? That is a new prediction, new index for your final index for that particular quarter. Similarly, suppose here you got 1.29, 1.29 by say 3.75 or whatever higher the not equal to 4, divide that and then multiply by 4. Out of 4 how much that proportionate value you have to calculate? That is your final index. Suppose here we found in the previous stage itself, in the first stage itself we found that you know total sum is 4. So, what we need to do is all this calculation are not required now. Suppose we found the index, so step 3 is done. Now, we have to calculate the forecast for 2007. So, you have taken this entire data. What is that? These are the sum of total sales of that particular year, sum of total sales of that particular year. Correct. So, you have taken this data, just copy this data and go to a new sale. Suppose a new seat and suppose paste here, special value what is this? This is the annual sales. And this is the years. So, first was 1999 and then second was 2000. So, this way you rather than 99, 2000, I am for my simplicity, I am writing this as my representative of years. 8 means 2006, 7 means 2000 say you know 5. So, this I have calculated now. So, this is my y, this is my x. So, what we will write? I will consider this as a x for my understanding and this is my y. Now, I will put the train line and regression, I will calculate 2007 forecast here. Effectively, my objective is to calculate the 2007 forecast using the data of annual sales. So, I will represent 2007 as 9, but I will see that later. What I will do? I will go to data analysis and then I will go to regression, it is here, go to regression and then select your y range, this is your y range. Then go to input data, select your x range up to this, select level because first rule is considered as a level, sales and select a sale where you want to make your forecast. Now, the forecast value has come now because the intercept and the slope. Then we put the color here. So, this is your intercept and slope. Now, what you have to do? You have to calculate 2007 forecast. What is the forecast value? y equals to mx plus c or a plus bx. So, this formula will follow train line formula and then we will calculate the forecast for 2007. What will be the value now? y equals to m. m is the slope. So, slope into x. What is x? 2007, but here we have taken 9 as a represent of 2007. x plus c, what is c? The intercept is 80. We found the forecast as a 98. So, this 98 I had written in the PPT. So, this is the 2007 forecast. Now, I am going to calculate 2008 forecast. So, 80 represent it will be 10 sale and then what you do? m into x plus c. You will get the annual forecast for 2008. Look at 100. So, this data I have written in my PPT from here. So, this way you can calculate the annual prediction step 4 now. Come back, look at this analysis I have done here. You can get to know how I have calculated all this. You know R square values, standard error also if you want to see, you can see all these things. So, now we have found all this prediction for 2007 and 2008. These two data we will copy and we will go to the master 5. So, come here. So, look at here now. So, 2007, let us understand 2007 only. So, annual sales we found as a from the regression line as a 98, but this is the annual sales of 2007. What you have to do? Now, you have to divide that by 4 because quarterly data unit. So, actually what happens? 2007 say, this previous data sets you have used and you have made the forecast. What is your forecast? It is 98 by 4. So, it is coming to be 24.5, 24.5, 24.5, 24.5 for 4 quarter. But this is the additionalized prediction. You cannot take that as the final forecast. You have to multiply with the index. You multiply with the index, it will come down to 22.44. So, 22.44. Here, look at here. So, you are multiplying now. Look at this. Index into the on an average quarterly forecast. So, 24.5 into 0.91. We are getting lower than that on an average. So, how much additionalized data lying? So, 22.43 is the final forecast for 2000, first quarter of 2007. Similarly, second quarter has the highest index, 30 percent extra, 29 percent extra. So, you can get the forecast is above than 24.5. It is coming to almost 30. How much? 31.79. So, this 31.79 will go higher. Say, suppose here, the effect of your forecast are coming like this. Then third quarter, how much? 8 percent extra. So, 26.56. So, here it will be like this. Then fourth quarter, 30 percent less. So, 70 percent weightage only, 30 percent less. So, it will fall down further here. So, your forecast will be like this. Look at this. This will be the forecast for every year. Even the previous data, if you draw the graph, it will be like this. But now, for 2007 forecast, you found this is what the forecast throw, simple average or quarter average method. I believe it is clear to everybody. Now, for 2008, if you want to calculate, you already got the prediction for annual prediction, but 2008 at 100 divided by 4. So, you will get 25 for each quarter. But that is not the final forecast. You multiply the index that you calculate on index. Let me write down index.  So, you will get, look at this. On an average, 100 divided by 4 multiplied by index. And if you drag it, you will get the forecast for 2008 also. You are getting forecast through quarterly average data or method or simple average method. And you have understood the process of seasonality index and the corresponding forecast if the data has a seasonality.  Now, we will extend our discussions to normalization method. This is another method. Sometimes industry follows this also. It is quite easy to understand. And it has only two, three steps to, you know, to capture the process of normalization method. But it is different than the quarter average method. In quarterly average method, you divide, get the index for each quarter. Here also, you have to calculate the index. But the process is different by normalizing the matrix. There, you do not normalize the matrix. You take the quarter average or monthly average and divide by the global average. That index is your index, right? And then, same process. You are taking the annual data and then you are dividing by the quarter, number of quarter and then multiply the index. These are the quarterly summary, summary of quarter average. But in normalization method, what do you do? Let us understand the process of normalization method. It is easy. Then, here then quarter average also. But both has a merit. Whatever you want, you can follow. Let us understand the normalization method process.  Then, total sales of second year. Then, total sales of third year. Once you get that, you, what do you do?  You will get the weightage for that quarter. Like, 53 is total by, say, 150, suppose. So, total annual, first year sales is, say, 150. Let me see how much is the total annual sales. Look at here. Total annual sales is how much? 157. So, it is nothing but the sum of all four quarter. So, first year annual sales you found. Second year how much? 173. Third year how much? 189. So, these three years annual sales you found. Now, you calculate the weightage for each quarter. So, 53 by 153. So, you will get 53 by 157. You will get the index for, you know, for first quarter, 34 percent. Then, second quarter, 14 percent, because sales is only 22. So, 14 percent. Then, third quarter, 24 percent and 29 percent. Total should be, you know, on an average one. Because, out of 157 you are distributing. So, weightage should be one. So, but we will discuss that later. So, now, suppose you got the weightage, normalized value for each quarter. Similarly, for second year, you do like 58 by 158 by 173. You will get the index for that. And similarly, for all the other quarter, you calculate it. In Excel, I will show you, you get the calculation, the index normalized value for each quarter. Now, what you do? Next step is that, you know, you take the average of normalized data. So, weightage, that is the final weightage. For each, first year you have calculated the weightage for each. As per the sales of the annual data, you have calculated the weightage for that. For second year also, you have calculated the weightages. As per the sales of the second year, total sales. So, for third year also, you have calculated. But now, you are getting on an average, what is the total sales?  Or you can say the index now. So, here you had 34, 34 say 33, you are getting 30.337 as the index. That is the index for quarter 1. Q1 index you found. So, for Q2, it is 14%. For Q3, it is 23%. For Q4, it is 23%. Total should be 1. There you had a 4, but here it is 1. Because out of annual data, you are calculating the weightage you are calculating. The weightage, the proportionate value you are calculating out of annual data. So, therefore, here, but that you calculate the quarterly, out of quarter. Like you know quarterly data, average by the total global quarter average. So, therefore, you found the quarterly data.  Because this is also quarterly average, overall average is quarterly and you are dividing the quarterly average data by the global average or overall average. So, therefore, whatever the index you are getting in quarterly average method, that index is out of 1 say. So, 1 plus 1 plus 1 plus 1, total 4 or on a fluctuation if you put together, it will be 4. Because 4 quarter you are calculating separately.  So, out of annual sales, how much weightage you are calculating? So, therefore, here total index of sum should be, sum of the all indexes should be 1 only. Remember the differences. So, you found the index for each quarter now, based on the annual sales data. So, this is the next step now. The next step is that similarly, like the previous quarterly method or simple average method, take the annual sales. Let me delete this now, erase this. Now, you have the annual sales for each year. You calculate the trail line or regression line. We will get the forecast for say, year 4. We will get the annual forecast for year 4. Multiply that with the index. That is it. Look at here. So, let me delete this. You will get a better clarity. What you do? You go to the next. Look at this. So, total sum should be 1. As I mentioned here, let us write down here. Now, what you do? Using regression line or trail line using this data, we get the forecast for the next year. Simple, similar like first step is same for everybody. You get it. Then you do not have to divide this by 4. Because as it is annual sales and this you have index you have found based on the annual sales. So, out of 1, how much that you have already calculated? Directly multiply this with the index. Directly you multiply this with the index of annual predictions. You will get the forecast for each quarter. This is what simple process we call as a normalization method. Because you are normalizing a matrix with the data, with the annual sales and you are getting the index accordingly. So, therefore, these process are called the normalization method and it is easier than quarter leverage. But whatever you want, you can follow. Let me illustrate this in Excel also quickly. So, you will get to know because the matrix normalization method here. Same annual data, let me increase the font size. I believe it is visible to everybody now. So, here initial data we have. So, annual sales you have calculated first step. Then divide the quarter data by annual sales. Look at divide the annual quarterly, each quarterly data by the annual sales or respective sales. So, you get the index for that. So, this is the intermediate index. This is the normalization which has been done. Total final advantage you have to calculate by taking the average of the all quarter for easier. Because interrelationship has to be brought into the system. Individually you cannot make a prediction. So, now, because data pattern has to follow and how the index for each quarter cannot be individually calculated. It has to be calculated based on the taking into account of the all the data. So, I will discuss that also again at the end to summarize the entered process. So, now suppose this is what your index for that particular quarter intermediate and then for second quarter you can see it is total sales of that quarter by the total annual sales. This way you can calculate the index for each quarter. This is the normalized data. And then second year also, then third year also and then if you take the average of all three, you will get the final weightage for that particular quarter. So, here it will be say W1, W2, W3, W4 or you can say index quarter 1, quarter 1 index, Q1 index, Q2 index, like this way Q3 index and Q4 index. So, this for index you calculated as a step 3 now as per your understanding whatever. So, you store it. The next same as it is you calculate the annual forecast. What do you have to do? You take this annual data, take this annual data, look at here annual data and you represent them as a you know 1, 2, 3 whatever and you make the forecast using regression line. You got the intercept on slope, take it and then you may calculate the forecast for the next year. How much it will be? 16 into mx. x is how much? 4 plus c, c is 141. We will get the forecast for the next year as 205. So, this is what the forecast for the next year. We have calculated here, look at here, look at the forecast for the fourth year. But now that forecast, you have to multiply the index. So, that forecast you have to multiply the index. So, this is the index that we have calculated here and the forecast here. If you multiply them, you will get the forecast for the next year quarter 1. Quarter 2 data of next year is 28, quarter 3 of next year is like 23% of 205 and 29% of 205. So, this is the final forecast for the next year. This is called the matrix normalization method and quite easy to understand. Whatever the method you want, you can follow. But both methods I have discussed and if you come back to it now, this summary of the excel I have kept here and you can see the forecast for the next year. Look at this. Quarterly data, quarterly forecast. All the difference here is that, you know, it is the index are been calculated out of 1 and there it was calculated out of 4. But one more thing let me explain here also and in the normalization simple average method, quarter average method, that suppose you may say that Sir, I will calculate the index for each quarter and then the next year round forecast I will get and I will multiply that. I will not take the average of that. You cannot do that. Like, you know, this index you can 0.34. You can multiply this with this here also. You can do it or annual sales like, you know, you can take this and this or corresponding forecast you can do it. But that is not the best way to make the forecast. What do you have to do? You have to take all quarter data and then the average and then you have to find the interrelationship. So, today we have discussed two methods. One is the, you know, simple average method or quarterly average method and the second one is the normalization method. Let me go back to that particular sheet. Today we have discussed the simple average method to calculate the seasonality and the signal index and make the forecast and also we have discussed normalization method. So, these two are the most popular method we have discussed and we have also illustrated in excel. In the next session, we will discuss if the data has a seasonality and print both. That means, if the data follow seasonality, only seasonality we have discussed today, right, how to make the forecast for the forthcoming year. But if the data has a seasonality and print together, seasonality and print, look at the this data, seasonality as well as the uptrend set. In that case, the process that we have followed today may not be the best in terms of accuracy or the reliability or the measure of accuracy calculation. So, what do you have to do? You have to upgrade your model from simple quarter leverage or say normalization method to a better model who can capture the seasonality and print together. There are very popular method. One is the decomposition method, another the interhold method, another the Arima model. All three are popular to capture the seasonality and print together. In the forthcoming sessions, one by one, we will discuss all three models when the data has seasonality and print both and how can we make forecast for the future using this type of combination of the data pattern. So, let us complete this today's session with this simple understanding of seasonality and the index calculation and the forecast and we will extend the concept with print put together is allowed with seasonality in the coming session. Thank you.


Alright, welcome back everyone to the second lecture today. We see 1-1-1 on faith. We've been discussing on collective faith and we will continue talking about that. Alright, let's take some questions. Ren, your question. If we pray collectively, will we see quicker results, quicker answers to prayer? If we pray collectively, will we see quicker answers to prayer? So that's an interesting question. I'm just trying to think how to answer that. Will we see quicker answers if we pray collectively? I mean, here's my thought. I don't think we can say, we will always see, okay, let's put it like this, that when there is collective faith, when we are two or more of us, are praying together for a matter, there is greater strength, greater power in that when two of us, two or more of us are agreeing together on that same matter. So from that perspective, yes, we are going to be able to do more because the Bible does teach us two are better than one and we read that scripture, Ecclesiastes 4-9. So obviously, two are better than one or when there are more people in unity or in unity and praying for something, it's making greater power available or at least from our place of agreement, it's much better. We are in a better position. So from that perspective, yes, it's advantageous for people to be in agreement and in prayer. At the same time, what I would look at is there are certain things that God will release at certain times. Let me see, he looks for or he has the Cairo moment, the right time to release something. So example, example, suppose we are collectively praying for revival. We are saying God, we want to see a mighty move of the Holy Spirit and this has happened in the history of the church many times. So you will learn in your second year when you study church history and you go to the history of the church, especially the Pentecostal history of the church, you will see numerous times in the 16th, 17th, 18th centuries. There were different groups of people praying and revival took place. So you will see it happen over and over again in the history of the church, even in India as well, Europe, North America, different parts of the world, South America, some parts of the world. So if there's a group of people praying for revival, so the more people coming together praying is important. But then there's also something there, but you can't fix the time. Okay, you all pray for five days and then revival will happen. Are you praying for five months and then revival? What we will see as we look at the history of revival and the history of the church is there is no set formula, but God, so the people are praying, the people are in agreement praying and then God sees, you know, the right time to release the move or the outpouring of the Holy Spirit. So, for example, the revival in the Herbrides Islands, I think there were two or three elderly blind ladies. So it wasn't even a big group of people. There's three of them, I think, two or three of them. One was blind, one was, I think, without writers.  But when these people started praying, that eventually gave birth to a revival, a mighty move, the Holy Spirit. The hundred-year prayer movement that took place among the Moravians, which was a small group of people living in Germany, and that they continued praying for 100 years nonstop. It began with a small group of people who decided to, you know, take turns and pray for 24 hours. And I think the initial group was only about 20-some people. And then they started praying. So again, it's a small group. So, but then it gave birth to something very powerful that today we look back and say in the history of the church, that was, you know, a turning point that gave birth to what later on came to be known as, you know, the first missionary movement. They impacted many, many lives. They sent more missionaries in 100 years than the church had sent missionaries before that in the long time. So, we cannot say more people will always expedite things, make things faster. We can't say that we can. We know it is better. It's good. It's more advantageous. But will it make things faster? I cannot say yes always, right? What I would say is it is better, but it's not that it will always make things happen faster because there is, there are other things that God looks at, which is the coming together of situations, coming together of people for which when God will release the answer, especially in the context of revival or seeing those kinds of things happen. Yeah, so my answer to your question is not always, but it does, it will make a difference. You know, but we can't say always more people answer will be faster. You know, so you can't do that, especially when you look at these to the church. There's no chapter and verse on it, but I'm just looking at church history to answer your question. Okay. Any other questions? Another question, Ren, go ahead. It's fine. You can ask 100 questions, no problem. I'll say a question again. Does it take one person to release the more the spirit or what's your question? Okay. So we have a question here where the question is, will the unbelief of one person affect the faith or the more of the spirit when there are other people in faith? Yeah. Okay. So we'll come to that. It's in the lecture notes. We'll come to it and we will look at biblical examples and I will give a response to that. Okay. So it's coming up in the next good question. Sean. So we read that in Acts 5.15 where Peter's shadow fell on the sick. They were healed. Actually, you see something similar to that in Second Kings 13 chapter where after Elisha's death is when nothing left remained but his bones and another person touched his, another man's bone touched his bone. That person came back to life. Yeah. So we will, you learn about that in your Holy Spirit course about the anointing, how the anointing operates, we'll see many examples. Go ahead. Okay. Let me pick up a question here from Taya. If we are praying for somebody where the person does not have faith or is an unbeliever, will our prayers be answered? So Taya's question is, if we are praying for somebody who does not have faith, will our prayers be answered? Okay. So Taya, I will, there is the norm and then there is the exception. The norm that is a normal way in which we see God working is that people have to have faith. The person praying and the person being ministered to both have to have faith. So when you look at the ministry of Jesus, you find that all who came to Jesus in faith received healing and Jesus required that. That was a norm that people would come to him in faith. So for example, the blind man who came to him, Jesus asked them in Matthew 9, 27 to 29, Jesus asked them, do you believe that I'm able to do this? So he required faith from people who came to him. That's the norm. But there are also exceptions. The exceptions are there are times God will move sovereignly independent of faith. So we see that also in the ministry of Jesus. For example, in John 5, when Jesus was by the pool of Bethesda and there was this man who had been paralyzed for 38 years, Jesus came to him and he asked him, will you be made whole? Now the man had no idea who was speaking to him. He had no idea that this was Jesus was speaking to him and this response was more in the natural. There's nobody who can take me and put me into the water when it is stirred. So he wasn't even having, he wasn't thinking in terms of faith at all. And yet Jesus tells him, rise, take up your bed and walk and he was healed instantly. So the norm is the person praying and the person being ministered to or receiving prayer both need to be in faith. That's what the Bible teaches us. That's what we see in the ministry of Jesus. But we also see exceptions. That means God moves sovereignly independent of faith on the part of the person being ministered to. So what should we do as people who are ministering? We try to operate according to the norm as far as possible, which is we share the Word of God. We teach people on healing so that their faith can be encouraged and they can have faith and they can believe God. So that's the norm. We try to operate in the norm. But we also remain open for exceptions, which means there may be situations. You don't have the opportunity to tell the person about Jesus. You may not have the opportunity to explain the Word of God and build faith, but you still pray knowing that God can move sovereignly to bring healing. So while we minister according to the norm, this is the way God works. We see in the scriptures. We also stay open to the exceptions, right? So we cover this in detail in our course on ministering healing. You will learn that in your second year. I will also refer you to our book, Ministering Healing and Deliverance. There's a chapter there where we look at all the norms and exceptions. And I think we list out about seven or eight of them, the norms and exceptions where this is a normal way we are supposed to minister, which we see in the ministry of Jesus. But there are also exceptions to that. And one of them is faith and the sovereign move of God. I hope that answers the question Shaya. Okay. Vimal, and then we will take Anand's question. Vimal, go ahead. Yes. Yes. In the case of Jonah, you don't have any motive. Never. That means he didn't judge them. Yeah. So I mean, what I was trying to say is we don't see that there are timings to when God wants to do something, right? In the case of Jonah, thoughts have gone and preached to them because he was ready to judge them. But it was conditional. If you repent, I will not judge. So Jonah's message was, and you find many examples of it, there is a warning that means if you don't repent, you will experience judgment, which means if you do repent, you won't have judgment. So they repented, so judgment didn't come. But it's not the same as the question where if we pray collectively, is the answer going to be faster? So the situations are different. Are there limitations to faith? Yeah. So there are boundaries within which our faith will have to work. So we will cover that in a chapter that's coming up. I don't know which chapter, but there's a chapter called Perimeters of Faith, Boundaries of Faith. So there we will explain like this is what faith cannot do. For example, faith cannot override the will of God. Faith cannot override somebody else's will. Like I cannot control somebody else through faith. So these are things faith cannot do, and that's something. So within that we have to learn to, we will cover that in a separate chapter. Any other questions? Yes, Prince. Peter Shadow, yes. Yeah. So Prince's question is, we heard about Peter Shadow healing. Can we expect those kind of miracles to happen today? The answer is yes, and much more. Because the way God works, and you read about this in Haggai chapter 2, I think it's verse 7 or verse 8, God says, the glory of the latter house will be greater than that of the former. That means in the expression of God's glory, the glory of the latter is always greater than the former. So the early church is the former, the beginning. The church of the latter days and our time towards the end is going to express greater glory than the early church. So we can expect greater manifestations of the Holy Spirit. So we should expect that. So the question is, do these manifestations happen only for people who are called specifically? The answer is God can use anybody. He can use little children. He can use anyone for these mighty manifestations to take place. Yeah, can use them. Alright, so let's continue with our discussion here on collective faith. Then we'll also, in the process, answer Ram's question on how, if somebody is in unbelief, would it impact others? So let's cover one more point here. As you talk about collective faith, that even our collective faith can grow. That means as a community, our faith in God together can go to new levels. We see that in 2 Thessalonians 1 verse 3, Paul is writing to the church in Thessalonica. I mean, he's writing to this group, this whole community of believers, and he's telling that your faith grows exceedingly. That means your collective faith is growing. That means as a community, they are in a greater place of faith. And you will see that as you pastor people, the people also grow in their faith. They grow in their own spiritual journey. Now, I remember here at APC when we started, in the early days, I did not emphasize too much on the Holy Spirit and so on. Because we had people coming in from so many different backgrounds, we slowly started teaching them. And I remember those days when we would say, stay back for Holy Spirit baptism, one person to hardly anybody because they're all afraid. Holy Spirit baptism, what is this? Many other people came from traditional backgrounds, so they were not open to these things. But then today, the same church as a community, we are open to the supernatural prayer, healing, deliverance, all these things. But it was not like this when we started 20 years ago. People were not so open to the gifts of the Spirit, not so open. They didn't understand, they had no knowledge. But then it was a journey. So today we are in a much better place, a place of greater faith concerning the things of the Spirit, concerning the prophetic and so on. So they come for weekend schools on prophetic, they come for weekend schools on gifts of the Spirit, they come for so much more openness and faith. They are at a greater level of faith. So you see the whole community moving in like this. So people go through their journey of faith in different areas and so on. So as a community, we can grow in faith and expect more. So let's talk about some of the destroyers of collective faith. So we are to be in a place of faith collectively. What are some of the things that can destroy? I just mentioned a few here. One is murmuring and complaining. So if we start murmuring, complaining about each other, about things, it really destroys our ability to walk together in faith. How do we know this? You look at this in 1 Corinthians chapter 10 verses 1 through 12. You see that it's talking about the people of Israel as they were journeying together. And one of the first problems is they were murmuring and complaining. So he tells us, don't murmur and complain like those people, and they were destroyed by the destroyer. So they're murmuring and complaining. Pause them to be destroyed by the destroyer. God was working amazing things, but this is what happened. Another thing that destroys collective faith is competition and strength. So when we start competing with each other, who's more spiritual? Who's more this, more that? Competing with each other, it destroys faith. In fact, in James 3.16, when we are in strife with each other, it opens the door to every evil book among our midst. Because the devil comes in and he causes problems. So we should avoid that jealousy and strife and so on. Connected that to self-pride and jealousy. These things destroy collective faith. They don't keep us together. So anything that divides us will keep us from moving in, collective faith. So it's so important that when we are together, at an individual level, we guard our hearts. Because nobody can see your hearts. Nobody can see what's going on in your heart. But we are coming together to pray. So only you guard your heart when you come together to pray so that collectively we can see results. So as we minister as teams, we must learn to minister as teams with collective faith. You see this in the ministry of Jesus. When he sent his disciples out, very interesting, he sent them out two by two. He didn't send them one by one, two by two, go together. So you can imagine, two of the disciples going together to minister and they had to be in agreement. They can't say, suppose James is laying his hands on somebody, John says, hey James, why are you laying your hand on him? If they start fighting with each other, they're gone. They're not going to be able to minister to anybody. So they have to be in agreement. James and John, whoever are going together, they had to be in agreement as they minister to people. So Jesus sent them out two by two and they went out and they ministered. So we also must learn to minister together. If two of you are standing and praying for somebody, you learn to flow together. Not flow against each other, but flow together and minister together. That's something we need to learn and we need to be trained and do that kind of training when we prepare for ministry, prepare for our mission trips. So when ministering as a team and even here, when you are as students, when you go out to minister, learn to flow together. Respect each other. Okay, God is moving through that person. Let that person finish. Then I will step in after that person finishes. We are a team, we are together. We are not competing with each other. So you flow together so that God can work through us when we walk in unity. Now we come to this next question which Ren asked a few minutes back. Does the unbelief of one person or some people affect the ministry of the others? There is the unbelief of one or two. Suppose you are a group of ten people, for example. Suppose eight people are in faith, but two people are not there. They are not in faith. Would the unbelief of the two hinder the faith of the eight? That's the question. Something like that. So that's the question. So let's look at scenarios. So what I've observed is what people do is they leave the two, say two of you, you stay here. The eight go by themselves and they pray. I observe that. Or sometimes it's the other way. The two people will say to the eight, eight of you are an unbelief. Two of us are in faith. So we will go and pray. You all stay here. I've observed that happen. The question is something like that corrects. So let's look at the New Testament. What do we see in the New Testament? When you look at Jesus and his twelve disciples in the boat, I'm just giving different examples. Jesus and the twelve disciples. Twelve disciples were in fear. Twelve disciples were saying we are going to sink. Jesus was the only one who was in faith. And he rebuked the winds and the waves and they come. So question, could did the unbelief of twelve stop the faith of one? Didn't. Another scenario. There was this lunatic boy who was lunatic, remember? Jesus went to the Mount of Transfiguration with three of his disciples, Peter, James, and Ron. Nine of them were left behind. So this father brought his son. Nine disciples could not deliver. Then Jesus came and Jesus rebuked them. Oh, faithless and evil generation. So it's like what? And later on when the disciples asked him why could we not cast out? They said because he said because of your unbelief. So they were an unbelief, whatever the cause was. So at least nine of them were in unbelief. Let's say only Jesus was in faith. I don't know about Peter, James, and John, whether they were in faith or not. We don't know. Let us not count them. Nine in unbelief. Jesus in faith. Did nine unbelievers prevent Jesus from delivering? No. The boy was still deliverance. So faith works even though nine people. One unbelief. Yes. And even when Jesus was ministering other examples, when he was going to feed the multitude by loaves to fish, when he said you give them something to eat first time, one is asking which bakery can give so much bread. Another is asking where can we get so much money, even if the bakery can supply? How will you pay the bill? This is the way they were thinking, the disciples. See, they were not thinking in faith. They were thinking where which bakery, how much money, they were thinking like that. But did it prevent the miracle from happening? No. He said you get what you have, filoes to fish, miracle happens. Peter, he walked on the water to go to Jesus. There was a boat with 12 disciples. Only one disciple had faith. Levin was saying, hey, he will stay here. You go. Levin didn't come out. Only Peter got out. And Peter walked on the water. Yes, later on he got scared because he saw the waves, but Jesus held him up. But the point is, before he got scared, he was in faith. He walked on the water. So the unbelief of Levin did not prevent one from walking in faith and experiencing the miracle. Now, one of the common instances that people quote is about Jairus' daughter. You know the story, Mark Chapter 5, Matthew 8. Jesus is with a crowd. Jairus comes and says, my daughter is sick at home. Come, lay your hand on her. She'll be well. So Jesus is going to Jairus' house. There's a crowd with him. And in the crowd, this one of his show of blood comes and touches him. And what happens? Jesus takes only three disciples. Peter, James and John. He takes only three of them and he goes to Jairus' house. So now people use that example and say, look, Jesus didn't take all the 12. He only took three. So that means only three of them were in faith, so he took them. Others were not in faith. Well, the Bible doesn't say that. So when you look at the ministry of Jesus, you find that there were times, he took the three of these disciples because they were closest to him, not because they were all in faith all the time, but they were closest to him. So he took Peter, James and John. So in this particular case, the Bible doesn't say this, but the common sense conclusion should be he left the nine to minister to the crowd. Because there was a crowd of people there.  I'll take three of them and go to Jairus' house. The Bible doesn't give us a reason why he took only three of them and didn't take all the 12.  And you look at the full ministry of Jesus. There were times he took only three of them. He took only three of them to the Mount of Transfiguration because they were closest to him. In the Garden of Gethsemane, all the disciples were there, but he took three of them aside and said, you pray with me. So even in this case, there was a crowd of people. So it is likely that he left the nine to minister to the crowd. So Peter James won't come. We'll go to Jairus' house. He went there. And also maybe there's a crowd there. So you don't want such a big 12 disciples coming into the house. All these practical things, right? So to use that as a conclusion saying, Jesus himself took only three because they were in faith. The nine were in unbelief. They were not in faith. No, you can't. That's not the right conclusion. That is not the right conclusion. Because they were with Jesus all the time, right? So my answer to the question is, when we are ministering, we cannot say that the unbelief of other people is preventing our faith from ministry. That you go ahead and minister in faith and don't say, okay, you're not in faith. That's why the miracle didn't happen. Don't say that. It's wrong to say that. Because you don't find Jesus ever turning around and telling his people that. So you minister in faith. You expect the results. And yes, there may be some people who are not believing or they are not there in that place to believe yet. But their unbelief will not prevent the miracle from happening. That's my conclusion from looking at all these examples.  We should not say that because we already know God's will. For example, if we are praying for healing, healing is God's will. Why? Because God said, I am Jehovah Rafa. So God is not Jehovah Rafa part-time. And other time he is not Jehovah Rafa. No, he is Jehovah Rafa all the time. He is Jehovah Rafa to every human person. Otherwise he would be a partial God. He'd say, for you, I'm Jehovah Rafa. For you, I'm not Jehovah Rafa. For you, it's my will to heal. For you, it's not my will to heal. God is not like that. So that's a wrong understanding. So God's will, simple thing. God's will is consistent with God's nature and God's words. So we can be very clear about the will of God. If you know who God is and if you know his words. God's will is always consistent with who God is and with his word. That's his nature and his word. So when it comes to healing, what is God's will? It's God's will to heal. We don't even have to worry about it. When it comes to salvation, we know God's will. It's to be saved. When it comes to protection, it's God's will for people to be protected. When it comes to provision, it's God's will to provide because he said, I am Jehovah Jaira. See, that's his name. His name is Jehovah Jaira. He's a provider. Now, in certain cases, suppose you're thinking of whom to marry. You have four proposals. Then only one, you can only marry one. You can't marry all four. That is not God's will. You have to choose one. So there, yes, you pray. You understand God's will, then we move forward. So in those kinds of situations, our responsibility is to understand the will of God first because that's very personal. That's very subjective. It's for you. It's for you. That is God's will for you. So you have to understand God's will. Then you exercise faith. So in those matters, we can say God's will is this and it's not that for other things. For what you should do in life, God has a will or a plan or a purpose for you. So that you have to follow.  So in general, we know God's will by knowing God's nature and God's word. In specific things, things like your personal things, you have to find out God's will for your life and then you have to follow that. So two things. Is there a kairos time for healing? Sorry? Okay. So the question is, is there God's kairos time for healing, for provision? So here's what we know. And this is 2 Corinthians chapter 6 verse 2 and 3. It says, now is the appointed time. Now is the day of salvation. Okay. So when it comes to salvation, God's time is now. Okay. So that word salvation is an all-inclusive word. It includes forgiveness of sins, healing. It includes deliverance. It's salvation. So God's time for salvation is now. Now is the appointed time. Now is the time for salvation. So when it comes to salvation, we should pray for now. God now. Healing now. Deliverance now. But when it comes to other things, other matters, you find out God's timing in the sense, example for your future ministry or even money to do something, whatever. God will orchestrate it. God will bring it together at the right time. So salvation is now. Everything that is part of salvation is now. Other things you seek God for the right time. Okay. Let me see. Good questions. Let me see any questions from the online class. Any questions from online class? Everything is okay. Are you all following? Okay. So let's go to, I think, the last section here on collective faith. And we will close with this very quickly. So what happens or what should we do when there is failure in collective faith? Sean, what's your question? So can we say that if there's two people out of 10 who are not in the prayer room, who cause problems in the collective faith or who are not with the group of people through having a collective prayer with, as you said before, if there are two people who are not in that faith and out of the... So out of 10 people, two people are not in faith? Yeah. Okay. And if those two people affect the faith of the others, so does that mean that it's not these guys fault, it's their fault? Because even though there are two people who are not in faith, the others can remain in faith and remain... So what we concluded, Sean, by looking at the ministry of Jesus is that as a team and your ministry, right? So we're not talking about people who are receiving, we're talking about the team that's ministering. If there are people in the team who are not in faith, it will not hinder the people who are ministering in faith. So that's the conclusion we came to by looking at the ministry of Jesus because we find numerous examples where some of the disciples were not in faith, but yet it didn't prevent the miracle from happening. So the conclusion we came to is if there are people on the team who are not in faith, it should not prevent the ones who are in faith from seeing results. We should still minister and see results. So it won't prevent it. Your question? Yeah, so like you said, by chance if it affects the other people because of these two, because these two are not being in faith, it affects the other people who are in faith, it doesn't mean that these people are not in the right faith, they don't have a strong faith because they're easily affected by these two who are not in faith. So you're saying if, for example, out of ten people of two are not in faith and the eight people get pulled down by the two, so does it mean that the eight, what was your question? Does it mean that the eight's faith are not strong? Does it mean the eight are not strong in their faith? Yeah, they're not strong in their faith. They got pulled down by the other two. So all of them need help. You can't blame the two, you can't blame the two are not in faith. If the eight got pulled down because the two it's not the other two persons fault, it's just the eight people are not in a strong faith with God. I think we shouldn't waste time on something like that. What we should do is help all ten of them to strengthen their faith and one of the things we must learn to do as a team or we must learn not to do as a team is not to blame people. Because we are working as a team, we either win as a team or we fail as a team. So example, if two people are not in faith, eight are in faith and you see a miracle, all ten must rejoice together. It's not like the eight say it happened because of our faith in your two guys, no, no. Ultimately it's God who works. So we should not in our mind at any point think like that. That's one thing we should be a team. We win together, we fail together. So we don't even blame anybody for anything. We don't do that at all because we win together, we fail together. If we fail together, then we should work together to become stronger. Don't blame like two of you pulled us down. That's not good team spirit. We don't do that. We never talk like that. We win together, we fail together. We fail together, let us together become stronger. Let us together grow in faith. So we should have that kind of a mindset. Okay, let me... Okay, a lot of questions we have. We are already over time. Okay, what we're going to do is this. You can hold your questions for next week. Write it down. We will come back to this section on overcoming failure in collective faith. So we'll talk more about this. We will begin next week with your questions. Don't forget your questions. So Ren has to ask questions. Ramil has to ask questions. Wells has questions. Okay, so at least two questions. Don't forget your question. Ask your question next class. And then we will finish this chapter. Same thing with those of us online. Please feel free to ask your questions and, you know, we will complete this section on collective faith and learn how to be in this together. I'm just going to quickly pray. We just have less than a minute and we will close this class. Father B, thank you for things we could discuss and learn and understand. Increase your understanding. Help us to grow in faith and collectively, Lord, be a blessing in our world, in Jesus' name. Amen. Okay, thank you everyone. Thanks for being on the class. And we'll continue this next week. Answer more questions. Thank you. God bless. Bye now.


Hi everyone, my name is Sarah Gribbon and I'm acting head of business tourism at Fizzit Belfast. I am delighted to welcome you all here to our city. You can be assured a warm welcome while you're here, so why not partake in a pint againness or a wee whiskey with some of our locals in one of our famous bars, some of which date back to the 17th century. There's also a lot of things for you to see and do while you're here, so why not visit some of our world-class attractions such as Titanic Belfast, the City Hall, Ulster Museum or the Peace Wall, to name but a few. I wish you all a very successful conference. Welcome to Belfast EAA 2023. Hello my name is Christina Black and I'm a current mayor of Belfast. I'm delighted to welcome you to the city of Belfast. We have a rich industrial heritage harking right back to the 19th century when we were amongst the biggest linen producers in the world, earning Belfast the nickname Linenopolis. We also have a rich history of shipbuilding and we're well known as the birthplace of the Elphir Titanic. I'm sure archaeologists will have a fantastic time exploring our city, so welcome to Belfast EAA 2023. Hi I'm Professor Margaret Topping, Pro-Vice Chancellor for Internationalisation here at Queen's University Belfast. I'm thrilled to welcome you to our stunning campus which dates back to 1845. The EAA conference will be centred around the historic linen building which you can see behind me, but apart from the intellectual engagement of the conference we'll also have lots of opportunities to explore the rich architectural heritage of our campus and the vibrant life of the Queen's Quarter. Hopefully the weather will be good so that you can enjoy coffee and conversation on the lawns, but if not they're always the posters in our beautiful quad. Welcome to Belfast EAA 2023. Hello everyone, my name is John McGrillen, I'm Chief Executive at Tourism and I, and I'm delighted to welcome you all to Northern Ireland. I'm sure that you will find us to be a beautiful place littered with archaeological gems set in a really stunning landscape and I know that the organisers are very keen to get you all out and about and get you to see some of our premier sites including the Giant's Ring not far from where I'm sitting here in Belfast. I'm taking you out to places like Armaa to Lavin Fort which is the home of the Ancient Kings of Ireland. So we're delighted to be here for your conference. We hope you have a really good time. I hope you really enjoy your conference and thank you very much for coming. My name is Professor Eileen Murphy and I'm the lead organiser of the EAA Belfast conference. I am super excited to welcome you all to Belfast and to what we hope will be an extra special EAA conference. I wanted to introduce you to the wonderful monument that inspired our conference logo. This enigmatic figure is located on Bow Island in County Fermanagh and it's thought to date to the early medieval period. Now, while we cannot be sure about its meaning, it has been suggested that it's a representation of the Irish War Goddess by the Hooded Crow. Welcome to Belfast, EAA 2023. How are you doing in Belfast? I'm fine. I'm just fine. I'm Belfast. Welcome to Belfast. How are you doing in Belfast? Welcome to Belfast. I'm Belfast, I'm from Belfast. I'm from Belfast. Welcome to Belfast. Welcome to Belfast, EAA 2023.


Tim Duncan don't say nothing. Nah, Timmy is smile at you. Timmy be killing you with smile. Wait, who the all late cussing you did at Tim? He never got out his element one time. I might laugh at you, man. You might be cussing him out a hundred miles.  You know, it just ain't working.  I got something for y'all, you know what I'm saying? Yeah, yeah.  He looking at your eyes. Oh, no, he ain't.  No, no.


Hello, this is Laptop Media, and today, we will show you how to open the Asus ROG Strix G16 and what's inside of it. To open this device, you need to undo a total of 11 Philips head screws. The one in the bottom right corner remains detached, and lifts the edge of the panel, so you can start the prying process from there. Please remember, it would be of great help to us if you just hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. That would motivate us to make even more and better videos for you. Inside, we find a 90 watt hours battery pack. It lasts for 6 hours of either web browsing or video playback. Interestingly, you need to remove the small third fan in order to remove the battery. Then, unplug the connector from the motherboard and undo the 4 Philips head screws that keep the battery attached to the chassis. In terms of memory, you get 2 Sodom slots. They work with DDR5 RAM. Storage wise, there are 2 M.2 PCI-EX4 slots, which support GEN for SSDs. Then comes the complicated cooling solution. It comprises 2 heat pipes shared between the CPU and the GPU with one more dedicated to each of them. Then, there is one heat pipe for the graphics memory and one for the VRMs, lastly, you get 3 fans, as well as 4 heat sinks. In addition, there is a 5th one, which is connected to the top 2 heat sinks via a long heat pipe. If you'd like to see more disassembly videos of the latest notebooks we would highly appreciate if you hit the like button and subscribe to the channel.