All right. I think we can get started. I understand some of your friends are studying hard for the exams and are missing this one. So they will have to compensate with extra effort for losses of having this discussion today. We started last Friday talking about Iran's nuclear program. This is a very wide ranging issue and I will go almost all of the slides that I used back in 2006 and since then not much has changed as I mentioned last time and I will try to be as explicit as possible about every single step that has paved the way to what we are now facing currently because the Iranian nuclear program is still dominating the international political arena in terms of security implications, political implications, economic implications, etc. So it is necessary for us to understand very well what has happened in the past, what has happened recently and what is happening today and what is likely to happen in the future because as I said, Iranian nuclear program is not a simple issue. It has many facets, it has many dimensions, each of which needs to be fully elaborated and comprehensively discussed for you to better understand because this is a whole new subject for those who have not been familiar with the nuclear proliferation-related issues and I don't think many of you have had any such acquaintance or just any knowledge beforehand. I was talking last time about this Atoms for Peace speech of the U.S. President Eisenhower and I had explained as to why the United States president felt the need to deliver a speech at the United Nations General Assembly meeting. The date was 8th of December 1953 and it is significant in that right after the detonation of two atomic bombs on top of Japan which paved the way to the termination of war, the Second World War, World War II, first with Japan and then of course since then Japanese-American relations have improved very much and prior to that Japan was an imperial power and was the dominating power in the far east and south-pacific to a great extent. Anyway, so having seen the disastrous effects of the nuclear weapons, United States proposed to other nations primarily to the Soviet Union to give up any work on further development of nuclear weapons, and also promising that itself was not or would not go to develop any weapons in the future. But the Soviets did not welcome this idea on the grounds that they put forward arguments such as knowledge cannot be disinvented, you cannot put the genie back into the bottle and therefore you have now this knowledge as to how to develop a nuclear weapons, material, scientific, technological skills and other things that are necessary to assemble a device. Since you have developed this weapon once you can develop it in the future even if we commit ourselves not to develop these weapons and even if you commit yourself not to develop these weapons how can we make sure that in the future in the next US administration no president will ever contemplate of developing this weapon. The Soviets did not agree to the proposal put forward by the United States to quit developing further weapons and then they themselves developed the first Soviet bomb in 1949. In those years of course there were other countries which had advanced scientific knowledge, theoretical work and also some technological advances in the nuclear field and nuclear energy as I said has two facets, has two faces one of which is benign and the other is malign I mean good and bad, two faces of nuclear energy like many other technological innovations of course in the hands of benign purposes for positive purposes nuclear energy can be a large source of energy generation electricity, it has applications in agriculture in the health sector, medical sector, et cetera so many countries especially the advanced countries in the west have embarked upon fast developing these technologies and also shared this technology by way of selling to other countries because it was going at a very good price but because of the, possibly the psychological as well as political impact of having used this weapon against humans in Hiroshima and Nagasaki the United States felt at that time the moral obligation to not to share this technology with other countries with a view to prevent other countries from developing the weapon and therefore put limitations on its own companies on its own government not to allow sharing this technology with other countries and therefore there was this 1947 Atomic Energy Act which prevented the US firms from entering into contractual agreements with other countries, other companies which of course have been negatively affected because European companies, Canadian firms were selling this technology to other countries already and therefore the United States again this time decided to lift this embargo towards its own firms, its own companies and to allow the American firms also to enter the market and to be competitive in this market but of course the United States wanted to sort of bring sort of regulations to the nuclear market at that time there was no regulations or there were no sets of procedures which would regulate as to whom should buy or whom could buy or sell this technology or for under what conditions so the Atoms for Peace speech actually was the message to the world by the United States that the United States was ready to share this technology provided that countries that would acquire this technology that would transfer this technology would make a commitment, would commit themselves not to exploit for purposes other than mentioned in the contract that is they would only use this technology for energy generation or applications in the agriculture or medicine or medical sector so this Atoms for Peace speech in a sense opened the way to the entry of the US firms into the international market and since then the US government itself also gave a lot of support to the American firms in terms of selling this technology in order to have this competitive edge competitive advantage in the market of course one reason was maybe to provide some advantages for the American firms but another reason was of course something that may not have been pronounced explicitly was to have a say on the development of nuclear capabilities of other countries because if the United States would be the provider supplier of nuclear technology of course the United States would itself have the ability to control as to how that technology would be used in that particular country that would have bought this technology from the United States if other countries sold that technology to countries of concern or whose ambitions would create some question marks the United States would not have any control on that for instance when Canada sold the counter reactors to India of course it was the Canadian government and the Canadian firm that would have any control about how that technology would be used but if the United States or US firms sold the technology United States would have first hand information from the country from the faceted in which that technology would be used so therefore that was also another reason why the US president delivers such a speech which is a famous speech known as the Atoms for Peace speech so in the 1950s United States as I said provided encouragements to other states especially and primarily to its allies countries like Turkey, countries like Iran which of course had close relations with the United States within a strategic context just remember the first and foremost ambition or just expectation or form policy prior to the United States was to contain the Soviet Union so as part of the containment policy Turkey and Greece were included in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization NATO and Iran was of course outside of NATO but there was also a special arrangement between Turkey and Iran as well as Pakistan which aimed at providing a belt in order to contain the first Soviet expansion and sort of prevent them from reaching to the Middle East and to the Indian Ocean so but in this context Iranian Shah not only in the 50s but also throughout the 60s and 70s as well as 80s Iran in a sense wanted to exploit this situation I mean during the Shah period I mean the Shah was somewhat according to some observers was over emphasizing the significance of its country and also over estimating the threats and some American observers including the US presidents as well have in their messages to the Shah tried to remind him that the threats that he perceived were not necessarily as significant as he deemed to be important or significant and that he would be better off if he invested more in historic development at the social sort of development issues but of course from the Shah's perspective first and foremost the most important thing was the security of the country and he was concerned about Nazarism which was gaining a lot of support within the Arab countries among the Arab streets and also the Russian threat was there so the Shah's considerations about security were not necessarily compatible with those of the United States anyway in the 60s and also in the 70s we have seen a steady increase in the interest of the Shah and Iran as a whole in nuclear technology but it is not possible to talk about any significant or quantum leap until 1974 what happened in 1974 was of course very significant which was the oil prices crisis the OPEC crisis which resulted in the increased deep rise of the oil prices some four times or so and over a short period of time the Shah actually found himself his country in large sums of money so yes until then Iran was getting significant revenues from oil and gas and primary oil gas was not of that much use at that time as it is the case today of course it was but not as much as today but oil with the increase in prices of oil four times within a very short span of time there was a huge influx of money coming and huge revenues due to oil prices or the exports so after that the Shah took a very radical decision and in a sense elevated raised his expectations and set his ambitions very high which was to build or establish 20,000 megawatt electric within the following 20 years so had Shah's plans been accomplished by 1994 I mean 74 plus 20 years makes 1994 Iran should have had actually 20,000 or so megawatt electric established a nuclear power infrastructure what does this mean 20,000 megawatt may not mean too much well big power reactors of course in the past 600 megawatt or 800 megawatt were big large nuclear reactors for energy generation but nowadays 1300 or 1300 or 1500 or so or 1400 megawatt a reactor is a big reactor which can generate large amounts of electricity so therefore 20,000 megawatt electric is something in between 18 to 25 or so nuclear reactors I mean today Iran as of today November 9th 2010 has only one operating reactor 1000 megawatt so that may tell something about how big was the ambition of the Shah back in 1974 and we know from the writings of then head of the atomic energy organization of Iran he was in his writing he says that the budget of the atomic energy organization of Iran was increased from one million dollars to one billion dollars so there is 1000 times increase in the budget after this long term expectations long term ambitions so this is something which was significant in that once a country declares to the world its intention to build large number of nuclear reactors of course many countries many supplier firms and countries want to take their own share from it so therefore German firms French firms as well as American firms have competed with one another and they made sort of proposed bits and they proposed the Iranian government projects to install large power reactors and German firm Siemens and KVU Kraftwerk Union proposed and started to build two times 1.3 or 1300 megawatt electric in Boucher so it was the Siemens Kraftwerk Union so that was the German firms bit and eventually started the construction in the second half of the 1970s and by the time of the Islamic Revolution in 1979 a significant proportion of the this the construction and the buildings was said to be complete I mean in two reactors one of which was according to different reports and information that we get from various sources some 80% 60% of the reactors the construction not the sort of technological parts or technical parts but the mere physical construction they say was completed by the time of the revolution which or a significant again proportion of which was later on destroyed during the Iran-Iraq war well that's a different story that we'll be talking about so in order to understand and there was also the French firm which was about to build another sort of in Darko region so these were the nuclear power reactors which were agreed by Iran to build to let the French and the German firms to build and the United States also wanted to take its own share of nuclear reactors and more specifically and more importantly and also more interestingly to build two other facilities one of which would be enrichment and that would be the processing so these are two very strategically important facilities and nuclear reactor is a sort of a mechanism by means of which you generate electricity actually the principle is very simple you either have a nuclear fuel to boil the water and to sort of create just large sums of large amounts of vapor which when you force into the turbines the turbines turn and they generate electricity if you put coal or other sort of natural gas then you can still boil the water, have the vapor turn the turbines and get the electricity so therefore nuclear reactors themselves are just mechanisms of generating electricity I mean so the reactor the core of the reactor or the reactor itself does not have any direct significance for weapons manufacturing in the nuclear field what has significance is actually a rich uranium or repressed uranium which actually is plutonium so therefore reactors may be somehow misinterpreted or misunderstood by man in the street by ordinary person as if one can generate or build bomb within the reactor there is no such thing as building a bomb in the reactor reactors just consume low-energy uranium depending on the type or sorry size of the reactor and they just generate electricity but their significance for metric purposes or nuclear weapons comes from the enrichment facilities or repressing facilities that are attached to the nuclear program energy generation program so this aspect of enrichment and repressing dimensions of the big picture I mean these two elements make nuclear technology or nuclear power reactors or nuclear program significant reactors themselves are no different than any other sort of medium by means of which you generate electricity there is nothing that can be produced in the nuclear reactor other than plutonium which has to be repressed I mean you have to take from the core inverse in water let it cool down for like about a year and then you apply some chemical process by means of which you extract the plutonium which is produced in the reactor field and I'll explain this in as simple manner as possible because without proper understanding or schematic understanding of this it may not be possible to advance any further I mean I'll come to that in this point but what is important here is in 1974 the Shah although some Iranians and according to some records also the Shah himself denied to have such ambitions Iran Shah is on the records or is said to be reportedly on the records for having set his ambition as high as 20 megawatt 20,000 megawatt electric within the following 20 years and again according to some reports we understand that it was an American firm, consultancy firm Stanford from Stanford University I guess which primarily proposed 23,000 megawatt and for some reason there was this adjustment to 20 megawatt 20,000 megawatt electric within the next 20 years maybe to capture the minds of large populations with an easy figure like 20,000 megawatt within 20 years that was the ambition, the German French firms have set on building these reactors, the United States also American firms also wanted to enter into the market and also again as I said more specifically and most interestingly the US president Jimmy Carter spent the New Year's Eve in Tehran together with the Shah and in order to sell these technologies in 78, 77, 78 sort of New Year's turn so that is significant I'm repeating this a couple of times because what we are facing today is the US demands from the United States to stop enrichment hopefully for the time being Iran is not doing the processing as far as we know other than some laboratory scale work on the processing which was reportedly being made several years ago but the problem at the core of the problem today is the enrichment capability as well as enrichment work in Iran which is of course not very much welcome by the United States and other countries in Europe as well as Israel so this is something that we will have to elaborate as to who is right, who is wrong or what is right, what is wrong because it is not always possible to decide what is right or what is wrong or there is not one single right or wrong which is a complex situation of course then came the Islamic Revolution in 1979 and the war with Iran so in 1979 when Humeini returned to Tehran from France, from Paris where he was living for quite a long time and then the revolution took its own pace and over time within a year or so things have settled to a large extent not entirely but from 1979, February onwards within about a year or so the Islamic Revolution was almost settled in Iran and Humeini was the only leader spiritual leader as well as political leader in many respects and his approach to a nuclear project was very negative many might think that the Humeini's approach might have been sort of appreciative of what has been done in the past no, he said and he didn't like the fact that these nuclear reactors were being built by French and German firms as well as American firms were doing certain things in the Tehran research reactor the 5 megawatt very small which is very identical to the one that was having a Czech major nuclear research center in Istanbul which came to Turkey almost at the same time in the 50s, 60s and work was carried on since then very much for research purpose anyway Humeini's position was actually these technologies would make Iran dependent on the west therefore he wanted the French German sort of built reactors no matter at which level they were at the time to be sort of left alone and he did not let the continuation of the reactors by the western companies actually after the Islamic Revolution there was a period of chaos I mean the German and French firms and German and French governments didn't know what exactly to do they didn't know whether they should continue with the construction which was of course opposed by Humeini himself because the motto was neither east nor west only the Islamic Revolution or is Iran an Iranian Islamic Republic so therefore there was this hesitation period for about a year or so and at that time the American government of course put a lot of pressure on German and French governments not to go ahead with the construction of the reactors that they had started to build so in the meantime of course Iran had also shares in the uranium enrichment company which was of course partly owned by the French and therefore there was this contradiction between France and Iran et cetera so in 1979 and onwards we did not see much actually nothing in the name of reactor construction soon after the war with Iraq started and Saddam Hussein considering that he would take advantage of the situation attacked Iran and the war the eight year war started and during the war of course Iran had to assign priority to other issues I mean to meet issues security issues and in the meantime during some of the air raids by Iraqi airplanes Boucher was also hit several times there is a record some scholars, researchers have conducted their research about when and how many times the Boucher reactor was hit after all it is significant because it was not complete and what was complete or 60% complete was also destroyed partially during the war so therefore the 1980s did not witness anything in the name of nuclear energy program, nuclear program of Iran because they themselves were not able to continue the projects and there was the state of war with Iraq and that their facilities were being hit by the Iraqi airplanes et cetera et cetera of course things have changed in due course because Khomeini who was from the beginning from the onset was adamantly opposing the continuation of western projects be it nuclear or otherwise he was eventually convinced by Raf Sanjani and Musavi Musavi is you might know from the most recent elections last year he was the so-called leader of the green movement in Iran how green or how liberal it's open to debate but at this a contender an opponent of Medinajad today so but at that time Raf Sanjani convinced Khomeini that it will be in Iran's interest to continue the nuclear project and if Iran had developed nuclear capability it might have been a significant deterrent against other countries and during that war Iran was facing some energy shortages even though Iran is a country which is very rich in oil resources it did not have enough refineries or the refiners that Iran had were not able to operate at a full scale because of the war and after all during the war your consumption of energy, oil and everything increases and therefore Khomeini was convinced that nuclear project should continue and this is something that we understand again from some records and also from my conversations with Iranian scholars, experts and statesmen, politicians, diplomats during my visits to this country in 2004 and 2005 so as I said in the mid 1980s Khomeini gave his blessing to Raf Sanjani for the continuation of the nuclear project of course the continuation of the project was not only dependent on Khomeini's decision, once Khomeini made his decision to continue with the project of course he needed partners, other countries who would continue the project and finish the job which was of course not very easy because Iran first of all knocked on the doors of the French and the German firms and asked from them to complete the job which was incomplete which was left incomplete because of the revolution and the war that followed of course that was also a period of hesitation and German and French firms of course they could not operate independent of their governments and independent of the conjunctural situation and the United States was putting a lot of pressure on the governments, French and German governments not to let their firms to continue with the construction of the reactors so since Iran or when Iran understood that there was no hope for the French and German companies to continue with the construction of Boucher and Darkovin, then they asked from other countries extending from Sweden to India almost in Argentina and other countries which were known as having some work with nuclear projects and none of them agreed eventually and there was one common theme something very common in the demands of the Iranian government which was in addition to the completion of the construction which was left uncompleted by the French and Germans especially the German Boucher Iran also asked from the governments during these negotiations with the Argentine or Brazilian or Swedish or Indian firms or governments sending their students, Iranian students to these countries for education and training so I mean as I said especially under the pressure of the United States and for some other reasons, none of these negotiations proved to be fruitful, I mean none of them had any result and therefore Iran had nothing but to wait toward the end of the 1980s Rafsanjana and Gorbachev are known for talking about this issue as well among other things among other political issues and Gorbachev is also said to have agreed for the completion of the nuclear project which was not completed by the Germans but soon after that was in 1989 and soon after the Soviet Union and Gorbachev himself found themselves in trouble and Gorbachev could not stay in power and then of course Yeltsin came to power after this kind of coup or revolution and the Russian Federation of course was primarily dealing with its own problems putting things in order in the early 1990s yet Iran did not give up its ambition its desire to go ahead with the nuclear project and soon after Yeltsin I think that was in 1992 the first agreement was signed between Iran and Russia in 1992 for the completion of the project which eventually signed into a contract in January 1995 and according to this contract which I had a chance to see its translation not the original one but the content and this issue struck my attention 20 or 30 students every year would be sent to Russian institutions for masters especially PhD studies doctoral studies that was an interesting point because a country like Iran which went at first glance and a very maybe superficial interpretation and overall sort of assessment I mean one might ask the question why first of all a country which is the second and third largest sort of owners or big reserves largest reserves of oil and gas in the world after Saudi Arabia and Iraq or Russia etc why would they need nuclear energy this is a question that many people ask and we'll talk about it later on and also in addition to that why would a country like Iran like to send 30 students every year to Russian institutions for pursuing doctoral studies so this is something that tells us that when Iran from the beginning wanted to have or to send its own fit wanted to have a self-sufficient nuclear capability not only in terms of technological sort of assets like nuclear reactors and some facilities but also the scientific knowledge and accumulation that will be self-sufficient for advancing or developing its own indigenous capabilities over time and also to identify when Iran and Russia agreed for the completion of the Bushair nuclear reactor instead of this the Russian firm would build two times 1000 megawatt electric nuclear reactors in Bushair and one of which just started operation this past August some technical failures because of some hacking and well that was also an interesting point but anyway in 1995 Russia agreed to finish by the year 2000 the first unit at least and soon after the second unit and the first unit came into operation only in 2010 with some 10 years of delay and of course this delay is not only due to technical reasons but also due to some political reasons that we'll be talking about so therefore this is something that is important and according to the agreement sign the contract signed with Russia Iran would have so many students to be sent well it says here to date which was in 2006 and that was the information that I got back into March 2005 from an Iranian official an authority someone who was in charge of these people and he said to me that there were approximately 430 or 450 Iranian scientists with doctoral degrees and 250 of them received their degrees from Russian institutions and that was between 95 and 2005 and since then since 2005 of course this figure must have increased I don't know to what figure but must still be at least maybe another 100 of them might have received their PhD degrees in nuclear physics nuclear engineering and other sort of scientific degrees that might be significant for nuclear project Ibrahim the question yes yeah yeah the question is what was the motive behind such a deal from Russia's perspective the motivation for Iran is clear to complete its nuclear program which it started back in the mid 70s but from Russia's perspective of course there are many reasons one of which would be possibly the financial issue because the deal would was said to be about a billion dollars some even said 800 million dollars was something in between so approximately a billion dollars Russia at the time in the early 1990s when the economy was in a very difficult shape very difficult condition of course and that would make sense but of course Russia is such a big country that would not only do something just for one billion dollars well that was a significant figure for that period of time but a billion dollars in itself would not be explaining the situation another reason at least something that I think might be one of the important motivations for Russia to agree first of all we should bear in mind that no other country could agree to complete the project because of the pressure of the United States on these countries be it Argentina or European countries or etc or they may have had their own different interpretations but Russia even though the Soviet Union collapsed well in your terms Russia or Soviet Union lost the Cold War but still Russia was significant for the United States and important for the United States because of the existence of hundreds in the thousands of nuclear weapons and hundreds of tons of chemical weapons biological agents material that can be weaponized missiles so Russia was the world's largest weapons arsenal and the authority on top of this sort of weapons arsenal was to a certain extent collapse but of course the Russians have done their best not to lose control on their nuclear weapons and also on some significant strategic weapons so United States was also helping Russia within the context of the cooperative trade reduction program which is also known as non-lugar program and was pouring billions of dollars to Russia in order to keep these weapons safe and secure in their proper places not only the weapons and material but also scientific knowledge and technology was important and hundreds of billions of dollars were spent for scientists to remain in Russia not to go to countries like Iran, Libya, Korea etc so Russia was in a very close cooperation with the United States and the United States was paying a lot of attention to its relations with Russia so of course it had a leverage on Russia but it could not pressurize on Russia beyond a certain limit so therefore Russia had this capability to stand against US pressure but on the other hand of course because of the collapse of the Soviet Union Russia had certain vulnerabilities such as the former Soviet republics many of which had common denominators with Iran and in the early 1990s one of the major concerns of the West was who would lead these former Soviet republics in Central Asia and Caucasus where it would be Turkey or which model they would follow and the West did not want the former Soviet republics in Central Asia and Caucasus to follow the lead of Iran and Russia also was very much concerned about whether Iran would do something in its backyard so in my opinion of course the Russians may not agree this openly but this is something that I strongly believe Russia by giving this technology to Iran in a sense to control Iran's ambitions and prevented Iran from meddling in its Russia's backyard in Central Asia so in a sense that was a something that kept Iran away from Russia's backyard in Central Asia so okay I'm giving you a unique technology that you want the most but don't do anything wrong that would jeopardize my security situation and my interest in my backyard in Central Asia and Caucasus so Iran said okay you give me technology I don't do anything in Central Asia so there was this some sort of a tacit agreement but if you ask an Iranian diplomat or Russian diplomat they will say no there is no such thing but this is their job to say alright let's give a break and we will continue later on


Hello and welcome to CMC Markets on Friday the 6th of December and this month's non-farm payrolls Webinar for November before we get started just do a quick risk warning Do a little bit of housekeeping What have you and look ahead to look ahead not only to Today's jobs report, which I think it's obviously going to be important in terms of the overall direction of the dollar But I think in terms of where markets go and what the Federal Reserve does next week It's probably not going to be to market It's not going to have a big market impact I think the expectations around the jobs report They're going to have to be very very bad in terms of or a big miss in terms of the actual headline numbers for it to really drive any change in US monetary policy We do have a Federal Reserve rate meeting next week at the moment the market is pricing a zero percent probability That the federal cut rates next week In fact, I think when you actually look ahead towards the Federal Reserve meeting next week What we've seen over the past few days has been US economic data that has been pretty ambiguous In terms of the state of the US economy I Think more than anything what's driving The markets at the moment as we head into year-end and I think we do have to bear that in mind We are do we are coming towards the end of the year There's probably only really two full trading weeks left now until January because if we take next week obviously next week is a very very big week in terms of macro risk Not only do we have a Fed meeting, but we also have a small matter of the UK general election European Central Bank rate meeting as well. We also have China trade numbers for November and One of the big drivers this week obviously has been The rather ambiguous statements coming out from President Trump the change of tone That we saw at the NATO summit when he held open the possibility that there wouldn't be any trade deal between the US and China much before the presidential election on the 3rd of November 2020 Which I think threw a little bit of a fly in the ointment as you can see from this correction that we saw on Monday, and then Tuesday That being said Whether we get a trade deal or not. I think is neither. Well, I'm not gonna say it's neither here nor there We're not really going to know what the state of play is until the 15th of December When the US decides whether or not to impose those tariffs On Chinese goods 156 billion dollars of Chinese goods the remaining 156 billion dollars of Chinese goods so in that context today's payrolls report while important in Terms of the direction of the dollar. I Don't think it's going to really influence much where stock markets go in the longer term so let's look at what we are expecting to see and Hear from the numbers when they come out in 15 minutes time Now you may recall last month Expectations around the payrolls report were a little bit low shall we say? There was an expectation because of the general motor strike that the numbers and the headline number would come in around about 1995 K in the event we got a reading of 128 K Which was a little bit I suppose of a mixed blessing because what it did was it essentially told us that Despite the despite the general motor strike The US labor market still remains fairly robust But then again, we look at the ADP payrolls report on Wednesday, which came in at a very weak number of of Around about 67,000 and then you sort of wonder well actually is it as healthy as We think it is and then of course you have weekly jobless claims which come in at a seven month low Generally the November jobs report tends to be fairly decent Because of seasonal hiring trends seasonal hiring patterns So expectations for today's payrolls report are for a number in and around 180,000 jobs I think more importantly will be is what sort of revision we get to the October number as well because I think while we're expecting a better number for November, obviously the The general most Jobs will get added back into the number so that will artificially inflate it in the same way that It's artificially held down the October jobs report Well when you actually look at The two ISM reports out earlier this week the manufacturing number pasted a very weak picture of the US economy in terms of Manufacturing, but then when you look at the services side of it while the headline number was slightly weaker at 53.9 All the key internal indicators were actually stronger than expected So new orders increased to 57.1 the employment component rose to 55.5 And prices paid rose to 58.5 all above the October readings So given that services is a much greater proportion of The US economy We should we should find that Overall the US economy is still looking in fairly decent shape now. I do understand I think some people are saying they can't get any audio might be worth just checking your sound settings on the PC Check the speaker levels and what have you to see whether or not that's the part of your problem I've had I've got a load of people telling me that they can hear me So I'm guessing it's not a technology problem my end. It's more likely to be a technical problem the other end So could you just please confirm? Ladies and gentlemen that you can hear me and those of you who are logged in Just to be sure that it's not a technical problem my side I'm seeing that my microphone is working properly. I can hear the audio I can see the bars moving up and down on my screen which suggests that the audio is working and I haven't muted myself by mistake I know some people would like to say that it wouldn't be a bad thing for me to mute myself by mistake But I'm sure at the moment you guys aren't in that category So anyway moving seamlessly back to the seminar Are we likely to get a correction as a result of the ambiguity that we're seeing about trade and Will a poor payrolls report undermine the narrative for The move higher that we've been seeing in markets over the course of the past few weeks I for one don't believe in trying to pick the top or trying to pick the bottom I just basically trade what's in front of me So at the moment what I'm seeing is we are very much in an upward trend Despite the fact that we have come off the back of three successive daily declines but more importantly than that what we have seen is That we have managed to rebound quite nicely and I think that more than anything is Important let me just pull all of these things over here Actually, I'll just get rid of the unemployment rate because I don't think there's enough room for that And I'll just bring up the average earnings numbers So the key numbers for me are as follows because it's not just the US employment report It's also the Canadian jobs report and obviously that will that will Really push dollar CAD around and dollar CAD has been trading In a quite choppy fashion because of obviously what's happening in the oil markets But let's let's start obviously with the let's start and I've got to stop saying obviously let's start with the S&P 500 so 50 day moving average were above that the trend still is Upward if we look at a weekly chart and we do have to understand that the week's not over yet So the candle hasn't closed but this long shadow here Suggest to me that there's plenty of buying interest at lower levels We can see it in these candles here and here That patterns repeated it would suggest to me that there's a moment for the moment that there's there's no appetite really to Sell out of long positions as we come into year end normally what happens is If there's an appetite the move to the downside follows through these long shadows suggest to me particularly over the course of the past few weeks There's plenty of demand to buy on dips and that continues to be the case Based on the charts that I'm currently looking at. So if we look at the S&P Decent support around about 3,100 if we look at the Germany 30 or the DAX as it's known to you better known to you and you and I Again, 50-day moving average is Looking to support any thrusts to the downside On the upside it does sort of does appear to be finding a little bit of a cap in and around 13,200 so 13,200 is likely to be a key level Certainly does to be a little bit of failing momentum on the DAX Unlike the S&P which still looks fairly well supported, but crucially it's still above the 50-day moving average So I think while it's above the 50-day moving average It's very much by the dips and it's the same and I think the same thing applies to The Nikkei 225 I think it's important that when you're looking at equity markets, you don't just look at one you look at them in the round and in the round What they what these markets are telling me is that we are still in an upward trend. Yes We're consolidating a little bit. Certainly that's Born out in the DAX and we're also seeing it born out in the Nikkei as well. So In terms of in terms of where do we go to next I think at the moment despite the fact that we did see a Little bit of a push to the downside this week. They're still there still remains fairly decent demand barring any interventions from President Trump and I Don't think it's I don't think it was a surprise that after saying that he didn't think that he was quite relaxed about a trade deal with China After the next presidential election It was no surprise after two days of equity markets falling quite sharply that he came out and said well actually trade talks are going quite nicely Thank you very much and suddenly the markets go back up again So it's this ambiguity that's causing the choppiness and it's likely to continue to do so So what about the dollar index? I've just been asked well again We've seen a bit of a sell-off in the dollar index over the course of the past few days Crucially, however, it is still above that key support level that I identified a month ago around about 97 10 97 20 and until such times and we can see from this chart here It's still very much in an uptrend. So again it's a case of very much by the dips in the US dollar and That would suggest to me that the upside in euro dollar is likely to be fairly limited So if we look at the upside in euro dollar, we can see straight away From this chart here that even if we get a good dollar number It's it's likely even sorry if we get a bad dollar number It's unlikely to drive euro dollar much higher Than it is now we can see this one-eleven area here one eleven ten fifteen Even if we move above this red line here, and I'm going to zoom it in for you We've also got the 200 day moving average Which comes in around about one eleven fifty five and then we've got the downtrend line from those highs We've drawn in all the way back in 2018 So euro dollar is still very much I think a case of sell the rally when it comes to looking at that particular currency pair and let's not forget We also have the ECB rate meeting on the Thursday of the general election just being asked how I get the data boxes on the non farms basically you go to This drop down here where it says use an analysis go to market calendar select that and then on the right hand side There will be a checkbox whereby you select the option there and It comes as a little bell and what will happen is that when you select those items There will be a ten minute warning For the particular data item that you check that that that particular item is due to come out So hopefully that answers your question go to news and analysis drop down Select market calendar, and then select the alert box For the data point that you want to send an alert for and then that just pops up ten minutes before the numbers are due Out as a reminder to you that there's data coming out So hopefully that answers your question. So what let's have a quick look at dollar CAD because obviously we've got the Canadian payrolls report as well coming up and what we saw in October was a slightly disappointing number from The Canadian jobs market that does tend to be a very flaky number It does tend to fluctuate quite a lot expectations for that for Gains of 10,000 new jobs against a loss in October of minus 1.8 non farms you can see here 180 128 and obviously the jobs numbers not the jobs numbers at the wages numbers Which I think as long as they're around about 3% we did see a big drop last month From around about 3.2 3.3 to 3% and I think that did prompt a little bit of dollar weakness, but overall Overall, I don't think it changes the overall picture With respect to US central bank monetary policy We are not going to get another rate cut this year and it's highly unlikely that we'll probably get one much before March Next year markets aren't priced for it at the moment bond markets aren't priced for it and The gold market is not priced for it What we've got at the moment is dollar CAD is vulnerable to further weakness further Canada strength for the dollar weakness Back down towards this line here. We've been trading sideways for pretty much the last Six months and I don't think that's likely to change to this 50-day moving average could act as a little bit of resistance So we could get a rebound back to 132 But overall, I think the direction of travel for dollar CAD is for slightly weaker US dollar is slightly stronger Canadian dollar Gonna look at cable very very briefly And I'll talk a little bit about that a little bit of more about that in the UK election over the course After the payrolls numbers, but I think I think there's potential for further sterling upside And it's not because of US dollar weakness I think that will be largely as a result of Sterling strength and I'll I'll I'll articulate why that is after the payrolls numbers have come out But overall, I think if we get a little bit of sterling weakness, we're likely to find buyers around about 130 or 70 130 80 Certainly looking for a move higher on the pound against the dollar dolly end very briefly Before the numbers come out in around about 35 seconds in a range decent support around about 108 40 It's also where the 50-day moving average is here I think if we get a weak number on the payrolls numbers, the downside is likely to be fairly limited Unless it misses by quite a substantial amount So if you're talking sub 100,000 you might get a sharp dollar sell-off And certainly the markets do appear to be starting to price that in you're getting a little bit of dollar selling But let me just put that on a five-minute chart and then Wait the numbers Here we go Okay, that's a really bad Canadian jobs number minus 71.2 Overall the non-farm payrolls numbers 266. I mean that is just an absolutely stonking number And an upward revision to 156 They've revised upwards the wages numbers well you can see for yourself. Well, that's doing pushing euro dollar down Pushing dollar yen up pushing cable down in 3.5 percent the unemployment rate I mean that is not just a Goldilocks report. That is a gangbusters report for the US US non-farm payrolls So I don't know about no no rate cut in December. I don't think we're gonna get a rate cut at all I mean, I know I was talking about seasonal hiring boosting the November numbers, but I mean that's just boosting the numbers on steroids 266,000 128 to 156 on the revision hire Really disappointing Canadian number and that's that's going to send dollar CAD higher Canadian dollar lower US dollar higher The big level on dollar yen On any move to the upside is going to be Once the chart loads Let me just quickly reset that and zoom in just zooming in now It's going to be around about 109 20109 30 If we get that high There we go So we're talking about the highs of yesterday around about 109, but 109 20109 30 That's that's the key level. Let's just get rid of those flash numbers there and there and Move swiftly on so Higher stock markets on the back of that not surprisingly Stronger dollar more importantly gold prices are likely to continue to fall But the way that they have been over the course of the past few months The direction and trap the direction of travel On that is quite clear from this daily chart here Talking about selling the rally on Gold prices at the moment and that's pretty much borne out by This chart here linking the highs from September Looking at the lows We're making Progressively lower highs and lower lows so at the moment There's no real upward upward momentum in terms of gold prices and the next key support level on gold is around about 1450 I think there's potential in gold for us to come back to around about 1420 1410 But Certainly, I think we can expect to get a tweet from POTUS president of the United States saying that the US economy is on fire and I'm just timing that now three two one and I'm sure we will get one Because even though The Don watches the stock market you can be sure that this won't have escaped his attention so I was talking about the dollar earlier and the fact that We were near support and it was still in an uptrend Well, I think that pretty much confirms it and I also think it confirms the fact that maybe the October Great cut was a little bit premature Um, certainly a number of Fed policy makers have been articulating that and When we look at next week's Fed meeting and Ladies and gentlemen, next week's Fed meeting is important in the context of where The Fed is likely to see the US economy as we head into the year end But more importantly in terms of the direction of monetary policy because next Next month the Fed voting members change and when the Fed voting members change sometimes the the steering of The dot plots changes as well as different members Start to be start to wield a vote who didn't have a vote this year so When we when we when we're monitoring the Fed next week It's very important to hear first and foremost what Jay Powell has to say and More importantly what the statement says and I think there's nothing in that statement That is going to be compelling the Fed to cut rates anytime soon irrespective of what President Trump says He wants lower rates from that jobs report the US economy doesn't need lower rates so 1445 is good support. I've just been Asked by one of One of the one of the listeners. Yes, it is good support. It's the previous low through here And that's that's what I'm targeting initially. So you will get a move to 1445. We've got a nice low there We've got a nice low there but all I'm saying is that Subsequent rebounds at the moment have been getting lower and lower if we look at this one here There's a lower high to there. That's a lower high. That's a lower high. That's a lower high So we're now below the 50 day moving average. So taking that To its obvious conclusion If we break below 1440 1445 1450 My my support is 1450 if we break significantly below 1450 Then the next target is this series of lows down here between 1410 and 1400. So I'm not calling for 1410 yet But what I'm saying is that unless Gold is able to push back above the 50 day moving average Then by the laws of momentum Then 1450 could well break and head down to 1410 1420. So You're not wrong by saying 1440 45 is good support it is But unless we get a break above the 50 day moving average that will give way To a move down towards 1410 1420. So hopefully that clarifies My thought processes. I'm sorry if that wasn't clear Key I'm being asked about Kiwi dollar more than happy to talk to you about that That has broken above the 200 day moving average That in itself is not that significant because it did that Here as well So I think for the moment Kiwi dollar is probably going to find a little bit of resistance around about 66. Why? Because it'll it found support in and around this area Back in july. So where we are now Is likely to be a fairly decent area to potentially get short of Kiwi dollar and generally Kiwi and the Aussie tend to move pretty much in lockstep with each other And I think it would be highly unusual if Kiwi broke away to the upside And the Aussie dollar didn't So the Aussie dollar at the moment still remains very much in a downtrend and for that Basically for clues to Kiwi keep an eye on the Aussie. Yes, I know Aussie Kiwi is a fairly decent cross I used to work for Commonwealth Bank of Australia So I know all about Aussie Kiwi and how that that currency pair moves But if we look at the Aussie dollar, we are very much in a downtrend very much so We can draw in the line that we've got From these highs back in december last year and also the 200 day moving average And at the moment while we have hit What I would call an interim bottom around about 66 85 What we haven't been able to do is break above This downtrend line from those those from those highs that we saw in december last year until we do so And until we break above the 200 day moving average the Aussie hasn't done that Then I think the Kiwi upside is likely to be fairly limited because generally they do tend to have similar Dynamics when it comes to moving higher or lower So that's the Aussie dollar. I'm going to get on to cable in a minute I'm just being asked about crude oil Um for me, that's very much in a range. It's 55 65 on the wide of it. So I would be selling Oil anywhere near the top end of the range around about 65 dollars a barrel We've also got the 200 day moving average. I'm guessing you mean oh not I you just said our wti. I'm talking about Brent. So I'll come to wti in a minute Brent We've also got the 200 day moving average this series of highs through here So I would suggest that as long as we stay below this series of peaks here in 200 day moving average Very much in a range. We're probably going to come back down To these lows around about 61 60 61 dollars a barrel as for wti That's here Just wait for it to load. Let's get rid of that line because it's superfluous to requirements. So just click on that and delete Um very much in an uptrend but it towards the top end of its recent range Certainly wouldn't be long at these levels I'll probably potentially be looking for a little bit of a move lower Um, this candlestick here is quite instructive Very long up a shadow try to move higher Failed call it a doji star And as such the likelihood is we're probably going to drift back down Towards these levels here and let's not forget that even though um This is the last three days. We are towards the top end Of this week's range and even though we haven't reversed the declines of last week We almost have so I don't think there's much more upward momentum In wti the opaque me are being asked about the opaque meeting You know to be quite honest, they're an exercise in jaw boning um, they haven't really agreed anything and The move higher over the course of the past few days was predicated on a significant production cut We didn't get it And because we didn't get it we are not going to see Much in the way of further upside in oil prices barring obviously a geopolitical shock out of the Middle East um A ramco ipo might raise expectations about higher oil prices But if the world economy is weak Why would opec Push oil prices up and potentially choke off demand. They're not going to do that.  It's 55 65 I think if opec can keep oil prices within that range They will be happy because if it goes oil prices go much higher it helps the shale producers and Last thing opec wants to do is help out the us shale producers because Lower oil prices for us shale producers are not good for them And there does appear to be some evidence that the shale boom is starting to peter out so They're not they're not agreeing to cut some output. It's it's cosmetic Karen then they're already over producing So um You know for me, it's about messaging more than anything else at the end of the day if you actually look at the numbers Opec has already cut production quite significantly from the levels a year ago I am writing an article on that and I'll post it in the next couple of weeks On my outlook for oil prices. I do an end of year summary on a whole host of On a whole host of asset classes towards year end. So I'm doing one on sterling. I'm doing one on the euro I'm doing one on oil companies and crude oil prices. I'm doing one on retailers and I will probably be doing one also on bond yields the us dollar and what have you so keep an eye out for them I will be sending them out and I will be posting them on the news and analysis section of the website So for me the optimum level for oil prices is 55 65 not too low Not too high if they can keep them within that corridor. I think they'll broadly be happy Okay, so now let's look let's have a quick look ahead to next week Because for me what we've seen over the course of the past few days with respect to pound the pound Is financial markets pricing in the prospect of a conservative party majority? And that's why the pound has gone to the upside now I'm very much a technically driven trader So what we've seen over the course of the past few days with respect to sterling Is very encouraging from my point of view We've broken that area of resistance around about 130 20 and those of you who follow My daily commentary will know I was targeting 130 20 as a potential breakout level Now if we take the distance between this peak here and this low here, which is 127 70 130 20 127 70 250 points projected up from 130 20 brings us to around about 133 So my minimum price objective for cable is 133 over the course of the next few days And for me, I think if that plays out as I suspect it will Then that would suggest to me that we are probably going to not Get a labor government or a labor majority government more than anything else We should get a fairly positive outcome for the pound Now that's probably going to come back and bite me But for me, this is all about levels. We've broken to the top side The likelihood is as long as we stay above 130 20 Here this this this is a port line here and there's plenty of there's plenty of things that can go wrong And this is something that I can't stress Importantly enough Markets are pricing in the prospect the Conservatives will be able to win enough seats to gain a majority Now, of course This assumes that all the new voters who signed up to vote for the very first time Vote along the same lines as recent opinion polls suggest Now as we know From the 2017 experience, this is not the slam dunk Some think it might be Traditional party allegiances are breaking down. It's not going to take much for opinion pollsters to get all over their faces And we could see a rapid repricing in the event of the polls narrow Or obviously we have the exit poll just after 10 o'clock 10 o'clock in the evening Thursday night and we should also be mindful of the brexit referendum financial markets called that massively wrong so It's not the slam dunk that people would say would suggest that it is but certainly in terms of the price action here It does look positive for further gains towards this Like the towards the April highs here more importantly, euro sterling has also broken out towards the Downside which suggests that we could be in for a period of short-term sterling strength over the course of the next few days and Don't I think it's not just being asked a question here Don't I think these moves are about capitalizing on what the polls are saying before any conclusive decision on hung parliament Outcome on the 12 to 12. Yeah polls aren't definitive. Of course. They're not but financial markets also tend to be forward-looking in nature and You know generally generally They tend to get it right um It's not often they get it wrong Obviously when they do get it wrong and they get it wrong big style like they did in 2016 but I've always said this and I will continue to say this You can only trade what you see and what I see is cable breaking to the top side and based on that In the absence of any other news whatsoever If I didn't know what the political background was and I was just looking at that chart Without the benefit of news without the benefit of any inputs from anyone or anywhere I would be looking to buy cable on any dips with a stop loss Below 130 for a move to 133 just based on that price action alone not knowing anything else That's what you do when you're a technical trader one of the things about technical trading is that it affords you the luxury of ignoring the news or the noise as I like to call it because essentially You've got news coming at you from all angles Particularly when currencies are concerned because not only do you have sterling related news You also have dollar related news and you've got that push-pull effect on the exchange rate So trading currencies sometimes is an awful lot easier than changing The the uk 100 the german decks or anything else because you have two competing sets of fundamentals Banging up against each other And for me, I think the fact that number was so good for us payrolls and we only got a very minimal dip in cable Suggest to me there's still an awful lot of stale sterling short positions out there That are still priced for a pessimistic outcome there's an awful lot of cautious shorts and You know if the conservatives do win a majority then you could well see cable pop on that exit pole when it comes out on thursday or If that pole lead widens if the pole lead narrows you could see sterling weakness kick in and we could head back towards 130 But as long as we hold above 130 Then i'm of the opinion that we could well see a higher pound a year from now So certainly in terms of my one-year target the cable is 138 now I could end up wearing that prediction, but you've got to be in it to win it and I think it's likely to be near a 138 than 125 My feel on the outcome of the election is based on the price action in cable Um, and if currency markets are right then the Tories should get a majority now The big question is how big will that majority be? Will it be 10 seats? Will it be 20? Will it be 30? You know, or will it be a minority government? We're not priced for a minority government We're not priced for a hung parliament. We're priced for a Tory majority And that's where the risk is at the moment that they come up short or 20 seats or 30 seats or 40 seats or 50 seats for me What's the majority at the moment the markets are pricing in 45 50 it's there or thereabouts anything over and above that Could be construed as sterling positive in the long term It's not sterling positive But in the short term it is because once we've moved past the withdrawal agreement You've then got the thorny issue of the transition period But certainly on the basis of what we are looking at over the course of the next few weeks You should see a pop in sterling towards 135 And I've just said what you've just said Okay, ladies and gents. Are there any other questions? Obviously we've got a european central bank meeting as well Also on the same day the the 12th of december and then this is important as well So you need to bear this in mind. This will be christine the guards first meeting as ecb president And while we're not expecting anything particularly Earth moving from the ecb One thing it does strike me mario dragui was very adept. He was very adroit at fielding questions from journalists about monetary policy And money and the use of financial instruments to move the markets christine the guard doesn't have that background She's a lawyer by trade. She used to be the french finance minister And her record there was questionable You could say the same About her record as chair of the imf the greek bailout argentina and what have you so my My take from next week's ecb meeting is how what sort of message she puts out there And who she has sitting next to her to deal with the questions on monetary policy of which she is not an expert Is chief economist philip lane there? To field any questions on monetary policy so Big big big meeting i think for the ecb next week not expecting any changes But certainly in terms of message delivery. I think it could be quite instructive fed's next move Um Nothing before march Nothing before march Um, and that's that's pretty much it. Also, we've got um If there is a conservative majority you should also see a um nationalization bounce In all of those stocks that are trading at a discount. Um, so companies like royal mail bt obviously the broadband thing Looking at the utilities like sse a united utilities panon Centrica to a greater or lesser extent and the train providers like go ahead group and stagecoach and national express and first group So you could also see a bit of a move higher in the footsie 250 in the event that we get a positive Outcome a positive outcome for markets So that's something else to bear in mind as well Okay, ladies and gentlemen, that's it for this year for this non-farm payrolls webinar I'd like to thank you all for um, tuning in every month to listen to me go on about the markets. It's been a pleasure and If I don't speak to any of you before I'd like to wish you all A great Christmas and a happy new year and um stay out of trouble for the next two weeks when it comes to trading You don't want to be going into Christmas with a dirty great big loss um hanging over you so Um, so yeah, thanks very much ladies and gents and um, I will speak to you all again Hopefully next year. Thanks very much


Hey everyone and welcome back to Nintendo Prime, a bit of a late video for you here on Thanksgiving. Wasn't going to do a video today but something came to my attention that I I guess I've been paying attention to vaguely in the background and that is literally the largest game leak in the history of video games. You guys know we cover a lot of leaks and rumors so you can grab your tinfoil hats if you want but this is something that we've known about basically for half of the year but a lot of people kind of dismissed it but as we get deeper and deeper into the year and more and more games on this list are confirmed it gets really interesting for all platforms by the way be it Sony, Xbox, PC and even Nintendo Switch so I kind of wanted to take a look at this because we haven't really deep dived into this onto our channel and I think this is a great way to you know maybe end your Thanksgiving or kick off your Black Fridays or whatever you guys have to be doing over the next 24 hours. So before we get into that I've got to remind you this Sunday we do have our Prime giving event where we are giving away in Nintendo Switch OLED bundle also a special edition Pokemon Switch Lite, some Zelda gaming watches and a bunch of other stuff that we're still gathering together. I really hope to see you guys all there to be a link down in the description and the pinned comment to enter for the grand prize as well as find a link to that stream to set your notifications. Also if this video can get to a thousand likes in the first 24 hours I'll give away a $20 eShop gift card to somebody down in the comments. Alright folks without further ado let's get into this leak. Alright folks so we are referencing the GeForce Now leaks. GeForce Now is a service that you can subscribe to that basically lets you play games you currently have access to on your Steam library and stuff like that but through their servers so if you are basically running a Chromebook you can use your Steam library on a Chromebook and run it on a high-end PC stream to you. It's actually a really really neat service they don't sell you games they just sell you a service. But what's interesting here is that a big leak came out of this that people were like really our developers using GeForce Now during the pandemic and yeah it looks like developers were using GeForce Now during the pandemic. Now this list has been updated since then to give us internal release dates. Now most of these internal release dates have been incorrect but that's why they're internal dates not public dates plus with all the game delays out there we know public dates aren't always reliable either. We just said Advanced Wars 1 plus 2 reboot camp delayed as Nintendo Switch fans so yeah public dates aren't always reliable at this moment but it's still really really interesting going through this list. There's like everything on here man it's all these different developers all these different companies so as we as I go through this list obviously there's a lot of things we want to pay attention to and chiefly is what's happening with Nintendo but we'll cover this other stuff as well because why not especially like you know Arc 2 a studio wildcard that that's yes a new Anno game coming you know to follow up the last one that was really really good I'm sure Linus Sebastian from Linus Tech Tips is pretty happy about that one so that that's on here scrolling on the list because it's an alphabetical order of the games obviously Alan Wake remastered we know that was confirmed let's see we have Ash as a Singularity 2 is on here that's that's a good one a vowed of course which we've obviously known about for a while Babylon's Fall we got Batman Arkham Insurgy from WB so that's a very interesting one there you know it's scrolling through this list and you guys are seeing it on screen here while I go through it here there there's just a lot of good stuff on your Bloodborne though is missing which I thought Bloodborne would be on here as a PC port from the PlayStation 4 since Sony's bring a lot of PC games over but apparently not so just going further and further down this list City Skylines 2 is on here that's a potential one that could come to Nintendo Switch scrolling on down further we're going to see Crisis 2 3 remastered Crisis 4 these are things that have already happened so we already know about those Dead Island 2 Death Stranding Director's Cut which this was be a PC release for there scrolling down destroy all humans 2 remake that's right it was on this list before it was ever confirmed and released and interestingly enough there's destroy all humans 3 on the here and wouldn't that be fun if that came to switch that's that's a really exciting one Diablo 4 which we obviously know is in development and then a Chinese version apparently Dragon Age 4 which I would one thing I find interesting about this is that it appears that they want this to come out next year I think that's what's really interesting since we haven't seen a lot about it but maybe we're going to be a big blow out of the game awards we'll have to see there Dragon Quest 12 the flames of fate obviously we were going to get a sequel you know another Dragon Quest game Dragon Quest 11 did so well and obviously Dragon Quest is a series that's going to be targeting switch so there's another great one from Square Enix this supposedly is targeting 2023 so we'll have to wait on that but that is definitely interesting just to just to think about you know Square continuing support a switch all the way into 2023 you know so we're seeing the Elden Rings on here which obviously they've had a beta 4 at this point and we've also known about that one for a while Everwild is on here from Rare that's supposedly Rare's next game after Sea of Thieves so that's good big news for Microsoft there and by the way Everwild looks like it's scheduled for 2024 looks like Everwild is just a ways off right scrolling on now further we're seeing obviously Fable 4 which we obviously know about Final Fantasy 7 remake which we know about obviously FIFA the fast series farming simulator 22 is on here let's see some Final Fantasy Tactics remaster that's one I find really interesting and one that I think could come to Nintendo Switch Final Fantasy Tactics was amazing back in the day so to see that come back as a remaster that one has yet to be announced and that's supposedly early next year that that could very well be like a Nintendo Direct Drop it could also be a drop at a PlayStation event it could be a drop at the game awards because that's supposedly early next year now I don't I doubt it's gonna actually release early like you know January next year but that's on there so that's that's really interesting to see in here and I'm sure you guys are probably noticing some as I'm going down this list here that you guys might might think it's a big deal like Five Night at Freddy's Security Breach it looks like a new FNAF game obviously goes to Shishima and stuff like that that's just games going to the PC from PlayStation gear six obviously gear six is yet to be confirmed yet so it looks like that might have been worked out on here obviously the Grand Theft Auto remasters were on here the trilogy before we knew the trilogy was coming so that's just another confirmation from this list you know Helldivers two uh that that that's a one that stands out to me uh let's see hello neighbor two I know my my children really like hello neighbors so that's obviously uh one my kids will be interested to hear about uh scrolling down the list you know in justice three uh gods will fall that that that's on this list uh Kingdom Hearts obviously uh you know Kingdom Hearts has made this list Kingdom Hearts what is that for I'm confused is it a PC I don't know which version this is but supposedly in 2023 it's coming somewhere uh scrolling down you know we have uh obviously the life is strange stuff uh which ended up uh mostly being uh correct although I don't think before the storm has been announced yet we'll have to see on that front uh going further down this list you know we see Mega Man on here uh we see Monster Hunter 6 on here which we really hope comes to switch we don't know Monster Hunter Rise it's obviously the PC version uh so we already know that one's real um yeah this list I mean it just goes on and on it seemingly never ends it's insane there's so many games payday three is on here we got the prior payday games on switch so who knows there although it's not slated till 2023 um we have just wow a bunch of project names which we aren't really sure what they mean yet um so I'm gonna kind of skim over those project names because honestly they could mean a million things and we don't really know and we'd just be guessing um so we'll skip past all the project ones uh next up you know we obviously see uh some resident evil outbreak that's one that hasn't been announced yet that's supposedly a switch exclusive so we'll have to see on that one and that one looks like it's internally slated for March of next year hasn't been announced again look for a Nintendo direct drop on that or the game awards um that is something to pay attention to that that is supposed to be the big resident evil game built from the ground up for switch that has a really big budget uh so we'll have to see if that one turns out obviously we see stalker two on here that that to me is that to me is stupidly exciting uh if you're wondering what these uh numbers are to let those are steam id numbers any of the ones that steam id numbers next to them are obviously references to pc versions of games um scorn which we know is delayed is on here uh let's see here star citizen which has been up forever star field of course uh street fighter six is on here super monkey ball uh banana mania was on here which obviously we already know that was legit and came out um the scrolling down further we're getting closer to the end here we're into the teas uh Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle Shredder Revenge Avenge I guess that's uh you you know they're internally was supposed to come out next month um Tekken eight uh the elder scroll six is on here um yeah the legend oh the legend of heroes series is on here a bunch of stuff there looks like mostly just going to pc um yeah Titan Quest two total warhammer three which that's exciting to me because i'm a big warhammer guy um moving uh down that list even further and again i know that i'm just kind of rambling here but that's because this list is so overwhelming to me and i wanted to show the entire thing on video and give enough time for people to sort of sift through this list and find the things that they care about of course the list will also be linked down in the description as well now i know one of the games on here that has a lot of people excited is chronocross remastered which again hasn't been confirmed yet but a lot of these games either already existed or have been confirmed since this leak which just makes this potentially the biggest video game leak ever um and that to me is impressive because this covers everything the only thing not on there is nintendo first party games because nintendo first party clearly didn't use gforce now during the pandemic which i'm not surprised most of the first party teams aren't even in the west but um yeah like square enix has so many games on here i'm surprised because they're obviously not in the west either so a lot of companies were obviously choosing to use gforce now or partnering with gforce now to help with their game development behind the scenes and i'm sure it was a seamless experience until this this you know giga mega leak happened off the service so yeah i i think that this is probably at this point legit i i think we've had enough game like some people are saying oh let's wait for chronocross to get confirmed let's wait for x y and z to get confirmed and it's like we've had almost a dozen games on this list confirmed since it came out it's very clear that this list was legitimately games being worked on behind the scenes using gforce now is um you know servers and everything as a liaison for development at home when everyone was working at home so clearly that's what was happening here and this leak just looks more and more legit as the days and weeks go on and i am just in awe like there's so much here to process i honestly could could be talking about this for like seven hours that's how much there is here um i am just flabbergasted so what i would like to see you guys do is maybe go through the list yourself uh and go down in the comments and grab three games that you're super excited for from this list that haven't been announced yet uh that you really want to come true off this list because remember every game that's on this list doesn't mean these games are going to come out remember these were development documents and since it was from a development document we can't be certain that any of these games will actually come out because um plans change obviously if you didn't know behind the scenes all the time so um we can't just oh my gosh because a bunch of this list is already true assume every single thing is going to happen but every single thing on this list looks like it was likely true at one point and this is years uh games dated all the way out to 2024 so you guys let me know what you think about this down in the comments below your your what you think about a leak like this what you think this is going to do for companies trusting services like g-force now in the future uh because honestly everything seems to be leaking these days almost every company's had a major leak nintendo had one a couple years ago granted the guy got caught and sued the hell by nintendo but still it happened um and there was a bunch of games leaked from that some that still haven't happened uh but we already knew that leak was legit because nintendo took him to court there's no lawsuits over this yet and i think that's maybe why some people were thinking well maybe it's not real but as we go on almost everything's just hitting so uh yeah we'll have to wait and see obviously the dates i told you take those always with a grain of salt those are just internal dates and internal days change all the time let alone external dates so uh thank you guys so much for tuning in i end with a new rebel dance from the center prime hopefully you got something out of this video that you didn't know before you came into it um because i just thought that it would be really cool to go over arguably the biggest video game leak of all time i'll catch you guys in the next video