Okay, can you hear me? Today we're going to talk about two traders. Trader number one. We're going to ask you a question here. We're going to go over these two traders, and I want to ask you what trader you would prefer to be. So we only have two picks here. I'm trying to make it easy. Trader number one, on Monday, made $100. Trader number two, he made $150. Wednesday, he lost $100. Thursday, he made $250. Friday, he made $100. Next week, he made $150. Lost on Tuesday, he lost $100. This trader uses stops. Wednesday, he made $200. Thursday, he made $100. Friday, he made $100. Total for the two-week period was what? $9.50 in profit. So here's this trader here. You can estimate based on what, based on his losses, what this trader's risk unit is. Correct? What's his risk unit? What's the risk unit for trader one? $100. So it's really not large, not small, kind of on the small side, but $50.75 would be smaller. He feels confident enough to risk $100. He or she, anyways, he made money for a two-week period. So he made almost $1,000. So on average, he's averaging, I'm just saying averaging here for the two-week period about 500, 500 bucks, let's say, a week. OK, not going to be very exact here. He lost two days. He lost two days in the 10-day period. His win ratio is, let's write it here, 80%. Now let's go to trader number two. Would you rather be this trader? Monday made $1,000. Tuesday made $500. Wednesday lost $1,000. Thursday lost $1,000. It was a crappy day. Friday made $2,000. Felt good going into the weekend. Monday lost $1,000. Tuesday, he made $1,500. Wednesday lost $1,000. Thursday made $500. Friday, he made $700. And his total for the two-week period is what? $2,200 bucks. So this guy made more money than trader one.  Journey Moon would rather be trader two. Susanna would rather be trader two. Beast trader would rather be trader two. Anybody else? No one cares? I'm trying to, I'm gonna try to talk about stuff on the days we don't trade, which I'll try to have lecture ideas. I have two ideas today, so we'll see where we get with this, but. Dubons would rather be two. Sue would rather be two. Mound Girl would rather be two. Gallagher doesn't want to answer. He's afraid that I'm gonna yell at him. Would it be one? Bob would rather be one. Trader one would rather be one, because it's less risk.  Harry says trader one, but double the money. Now you only have two choices. You only have trader one and trader two. It's the only choices. Green maverick gave the correct answer, but I don't wanna give it away yet. Trader let's you said I'd rather be number two, but in reality I'm number one. Qualibur would rather have trader two's game, but trader one is a better win ratio, and that's what green maverick said too. The answer is you'd rather be trader one. And no one said that, but two people? In fact, I have to get the calculator here. Well, no, I don't have to get the calculator. How many losing days does he have? One, two, three. No, one, two, three, four. So this person's win ratio is 60%. So the fact is, first of all, you all failed.  You're going into the holiday weekend with failures. You're not getting your diplomas. No graduation for you people. No cupcakes. You did say one here. Let's count exactly. Obi-Wan, Bob, they both get diplomas. Romy gets a diploma. Amadou gets a diploma. Chinchilla gets a diploma. So there were four people that are able to graduate. Qualibur, let me see what you said. Oh yeah, so he did say five. It was a long, Qualibur's response was long, but five. So we have five people that will be graduating into the World Day holiday. The point is that Trader number one has a better win ratio. And Trader number two does not. So how do we use this information to help all of us get better? The point I'm trying to make here with this lecture and I thought about it yesterday is that, and I kind of in my mind have been working through this in the last six months and really even last year in my teaching methodology and when I'm communicating to people in webinars that don't know what I am about that are new to me. It's a challenge communicating in the world of finance to people about money in a way that they can use it for their benefit without being too possessed and obsessed with the money, but yet that's the goal and it's challenging. I think it's challenging and it's something I want to improve upon myself as a person that has a voice. And the point of this and it was a great lecture is that you would rather be Trader number one. So you would rather be Trader number one because he has a higher win ratio. So if Trader number one, if I would change all of these numbers here, in fact, let's just do it. So if this was a $1,000 win and this was a $1,500 win and this was a $1,000 loss and this was a $2,500 win and this was a $1,000 win and this is a $1,500 win and this is a $1,000 loss, a $2,000 gain, $1,000 gain, $1,000 gain, what is this total? 2,500, 5,000, 6, 7,500, 9,500, 10, 5, 11, 5 minus, wow, is that right? 11, 5 minus 2,000, 9,500, that person would have made $9,500 in two weeks and that's a lot better than this by a long shot because this person had a $100 R and this person had a $1,000 R. Here, I'll put it down here, the risk unit. Here, I'm just gonna put risk per trade because I wanna get away from this R but let's just define it. Risk per trade here, well, it was 150, I just changed the numbers now, but this is 1,000 so let's make it all equal, it was 150 previously but now I messed up that. This doesn't fit in one thing here, this is 1,000. Here, let's bump it up. Risk per trade is 1,000 for this person and this person too, so the bottom line is that this person obviously is better. You people couldn't tell that when I only had a risk of $100 for that person except for five people that therefore you were very focused on the profits of the total of the money at the end of the week, at the end of the two weeks. You were very focused on this number here. Now this number is different but you were more focused on this number than this number. Okay, here we are. This is, I didn't, I wasn't exact here. I don't, this is, think of the bigger picture here. This isn't about, I'm trying to make a point here. This isn't about 0.4 hours and 0.5 hours and 0.7 tenths of an hour. I want you to discipline do, think of the, I'm trying to make a point here, think of the bigger picture of what I'm trying to say. I wanna know that this is a bigger picture here that I'm trying to say to help people, okay? The bigger picture here is what? Is it totally being lost in all of you? We're gonna talk about two things here today. This is the first thing, the second thing is gonna answer what some of you are discussing about 0.4 fourth of an hour or 0.75 of an hour. We're gonna go over something that's gonna touch on that now. We'll just talk about this point here. Right now, is it being lost on you the point that I'm trying to make? It doesn't matter if you don't get out of every trade with one hour. That's not the point I'm trying to make here. The point I'm trying to make here is not that all of you should be making $9,500 and every two weeks if you risk $1,000. That's not the point. I want you to understand the point I'm trying to make here. It's not about the total amount of that. Big picture you get good, Mountain Girl says. These traders got it. Higher win ratio is key. That is to have a win ratio that's higher. Consistency, yes, make the money. See the picture very clearly now, yes. You get your winning point, the best ratio is yes, wins are important. So, guess what? In the end, where you are right now, you're trading and everyone is at a different place. Your number one goal in your life, and actually this goes for me as well, which I've been doing this year and I've even been tracking it and putting it out there. The number one goal of our lives is what, always to have a good win ratio. Number one, if we do, we won't lose in the market. We'll make money. And number two, the amount of money that we make will depend on the amount of risk that we take per trade. So, if our goal is not to make $1,000 a day or $500 a day, if our goal is not a monetary goal, in our minds, even though that's why we trade, we trade to make money and we know that. But if our goal is always to stay on point with the win ratio, we will do well. And then if we realize that we only ended up, remember this guy, say this guy in two weeks, he was up 9.50, he can go back and look and say, oh, well, based on that, if I increased my risk unit to 1,000, I would have made 9,500 based on my trades. This is trader one. He's saying based on his trades, based on his picks, his entries, and also his exits. And this is gonna lead to the next topic. Everyone in here will have a different exit on your trades. So what you need to do is take what you're doing, look at it, your goal is the high win ratio. Once you've got it, if you're not making the money and dollars and cents that you wanna make every week or month, you say, okay, I did have eight wins, two were losers, I made $950, a risk was 100, or maybe your risk was 200, that's not the point even. The point is not even what your risk was for trade. Again, we've gotta get out of this thing, we've gotta get out of this thing, I'm trying to help you achieve your goals. If you know that you're booking every trade for 50 cents or 20 cents or 30 cents, then, and you know you're winning eight out of 10, then you should know if you wanna make more, then you would increase your risk, then you'd hit the number you wanna hit. This is extremely important and it's gonna help a lot of you, and this is what I have to start telling people to get out of people's mindset about, it's hurting them, it's hurting them and it's challenging to communicate to people in a way because I know how I act and think myself, but the reality is that everybody will exit trades differently because everybody is a different goal and everybody also has a different risk tolerance and everybody also has a different patience tolerance. So if I know that I wanna get out of every trade in the first move, even if that trade will go on to work, here, let's just bring up JPM. Here, I'm gonna bring this up right now. I'm gonna bring this up right now. Oh, look at this. Here, you people better watch these trades. They're all going. All right, how aggressive to call these. Trader Lexi, what are you up? You better watch these. Where am I at right now? I'm losing my mind. JPM, or my train of thought, not my mind. I have my mind. JPM on five, 17, let's go back to the minute. Oh, Trader Lexi, you're out. Okay, Trader Lexi's out of Google. All right, let's look at this.  I have my mind, but I'm trying to think so many things I wanna communicate here. Here, okay, let's look. So anyways, nice trade in here. Dropped, fell, boom, okay? Oops. Now, if you did this trade in here and you got out in here, you made money. I didn't, I held it. But anyways, if you didn't in here, get out here, fine. If you didn't in here, get out here, good. If you didn't in here and held it into here, great. How many of you didn't in here and held it into here? Is there even one person here at all that did this and held it? Cause you would have been on your own into the afternoon, into three o'clock to get this one more dollar through the target I told you, which was 85. And I said, 85, boomer bust, and it worked. It went another dollar. Did anyone in this room hold this to 84?  So did I? That was what I said I was gonna do. Journey Woman said, no. Frisco was out at 85. So again, no one held this to 84. What, Gallagher, have you held this to 84? If you did, congratulations. Oh, 85, no, okay. Anyways, the point is that everyone will have a different exit, but you have to blend it with your personality for what you wanna do. But that's how you come up with the numbers for what you wanna do. So if you know, but the point is if you're winning, if your win ratio is high, you've got something to work with, then you got something to work with and you say, I know, like if my name is Gator, is Gator here today? Gator doesn't wanna hold anything past two red bars. Gator probably get out of this. If Gator did this, I don't know if he did or not, here. Maybe here would have been a long trade for Gator.  You don't wanna see one speck of a green if you're in a short. If you know that's your personality, but you win eight out of 10 trades on your entries in the picks, and but your goal is to make $500 a day or $1,000 a day, then you know, okay, well, then I know that I take the first move. I know that I'm only getting this part portion. I know I'm only getting a third of the move or half the move or quarter of the move. I know I'm not gonna hold it. I know I'm gonna get out. I know I don't want to, because that's my personality. I'm just talking, I'm talking as if I was a person, okay? Sometimes I do hold things like this, but if you know that about yourself, then you can go back and say, well, if I had risked this much, then I would have made this much, and therefore that's what I have to do to meet my financial goals. Instead, and this is experience just teaching people for myself. You know, I'm part of it. Part of it is again the mentality that is out there that I've been aware of and you think that it's gonna help people, but it's not. The risk-portrait concept doesn't work, I don't think, as a way to money manage yourself to achieve your own goals. I'm realizing now after eight years it doesn't. It sounds great, but it doesn't work in real life. You have a risk-portrait, and you have to stick to that for the amount of money you're risking that you know you don't wanna lose more than that, and you have to use a stop. And that is a reason to have a risk-portrait so that your results are equal. But the idea of your goal to be one R or half R or 0.5 R or two R's or whatever, it's not realistic because everyone's personality will depend on where they get out of the trade. Some people will not hold them, some people will. Some people will hold them too long. Some people will get out too early. Some trades will end up being 10 Rs. I didn't count what that JPM was if you held it into 85 or even 84, but it was a huge, huge trade. So these guys in here didn't have any massive trades based on their risk. The highest day this guy had in here was two and a half Rs of any of these. Most of them were one R, one and a half, but I'm realizing that that's not so important. The days that you get big sell-offs in the stock, you get swishes, you get the market with you, you know, it's a good gap, it just opens your in and it flushes, we're gonna hit, we're gonna hit, you know, one and a half, two times, a little bit more than two, three Rs are risk, whatever, in some of these trades, just because of the entries that we're taking, it's just gonna happen. We're not gonna have to think about it, okay? The thinking process comes most of the days when things do not sell off right into the first target, but that was so close that I knew it would go there and we had the market with us. But the point I'm trying to make is that you can achieve your goals. It's not about the risk unit, it's about going back and looking and seeing exactly what you yourself are doing and everyone is doing something differently with your exits. It doesn't matter, that's okay. Look at what you are doing. Look at what you are comfortable with. What you need to be focusing on is a win ratio. Once you get that down, then you look at your results and you say, I wanna be making more. Well, how can I do it? Well, I'm averaging if my risk, and I'm just talking out loud here, the guy that was risking 100 bucks, okay? He was averaging five Rs a week. That was his average. Okay, well, if he knows that and his goal is he wants to make 5,000 a week, then he knows his R unit has to be 1,000. So then that's how he's gonna work up to that. It's not that he's gonna bump it from 100 to 1,000, but that's gonna be the goal. He's gonna work towards that, knowing that if he just continues to trade the way that he's been trading, he'll be fine, which is with a win ratio of 80%. This focusing, focusing, focusing so much on the number of Rs or the amount of money per day and all of this stuff, I think it does a disservice to the system itself, which I'm trying to teach you, which works, which is an 80% win ratio. And I don't want you to lose sight of that. Some of you haven't. I'm just saying I'm trying to help those of you that are making money make more.  You have to have a winner every day. Well, that's fine. That's your personality. It's like if I was trying to make a clone, if I was trying to, it's like, it's like trying to say I'm gonna clone myself. Well, that's not gonna happen. I'm not gonna clone myself. No, forget it. So you know yourself. I don't know you.  So you know, this is, and you gotta forget about all the things that those of you are doing on your own, you have to take that out of the equation for now.  And you should look at that and say, should I still be doing these things on my own? Am I doing well on my own? Or you could look at it and say, gosh, I am doing well on my own. I'm gonna continue to do the trades on my own as well as Melissa's or whatever. I don't know, you should have them separate from the calls that I'm making and things you're doing on your own.  Dubai's the stuff on his own. Gala had the stuff on his own. I, John, does stuff on his own. Some of you just stuff on your own and that's fine. But look at the results to make sure that you're profitable with those. If the wind ratio is high, what you're doing, you could make adjustments and changes. And actually the holiday week is a good time to look at that stuff. So anyways, the point I'm trying to make is that the number one most important thing is to have a high wind ratio. And if you know yourself and you know you're getting out of every trade with 30 cents or 40 cents or one third of an R or whatever, then if you wanna make more, guess what? You just have to risk more. That's it. So it's an easy solution. But it's not something that you can do if you're not having a high wind ratio. Putting your stops in, not losing too much when the trains don't work by not putting in a stop. All of these things. Does this make sense? Total sense, yes. Does anyone have any comments about this or anything they wanna say? Let's look at these trades. See, this is good. No reason to sweat a bullet. Yeah, it makes sense. And I think it's gonna help some of you. Some of you are doing really well and don't need any help at all. And you could decide to risk more next quarter.    But that's just a function of how much you're risking which you can increase until you know you have a high wind ratio and when you do, then you can. And you're gonna mirror with yourself based on your average, your own personal average number of hours. And again, I'm saying that our word but I hate it. I'm just saying that to look and say if you know you're risking 100 bucks a day and you're averaging $500 a week and you wanna average $1,000 a week, then you're gonna have to risk $200 a trade and so on and so forth. Yes, it makes sense. Helps you defeat your natural desire to try to squeeze every penny out of a trade just not necessary. Of Fresco, you and Gala had should go for a beer because he's the same way. You don't have to squeeze every penny out of a trade. You're getting more confident in the platform and calls. That's good.    Sometimes, but not for the most part because I've taught you pretty good. This dissatisfaction was not making enough. That's the purpose of this lecture here. The purpose of this lecture here is this is not that far away from the guy that was risking $100. It's the same guy. It's trader one in six months. Trader one in six months or three months or four months or trader one in a year, what does it matter? Trader one was the same guy that was risking $100 and had an 80% win ratio and now as of December 1st, he's making five grand a week, trader one. And I'm just throwing these dates out there because I don't know. I don't know how long it'll take you or if you have to build up your counter, you've got the money to trade this way now. But the point is, even if you had 100 grand in account, why don't you just risk $100 a trade and prove that you can get the ratios right? Then go back and look and see what you're averaging and then you'll know what you need to up it to. So the bottom line is that it's about looking at your win ratio. That's the whole point of this lecture. And whether you have a lot of money or not, you need to know what you're averaging and that is not going to be dependent on the gap. Or the rating or anything else. It's going to be dependent on your personality when you take the exits, how long you want to hold the trades and it's going to vary from person to person. What is the reason that we don't move stocks? Well, I don't have 2,000 people in the room but let's just say some day I do, but we're not going to move stocks. Everyone will actually enter on a different price. Everyone will exit on a different price. We will. It will be that way, even then. It's that way now, it will be that way then. We'll continue to trade very liquid stocks and everyone will get a different entry and everyone will get a different exit.  You say, oh, well, it's clear. All I have to do is risk $300 a trade and then I'll be able to achieve my goals. Okay, fine, I'm gonna start doing that June 1st, you say to yourself. It's not squeezing much, it's making a profit and managing a position. You're trying to intellectualize something to make sense out of it, like managing a position is, you're trying to, no. What Frisco said is more the right thing to do. Frisco's saying squeeze every penny. He's got it. You're saying, well, I need to manage the position. You're not talking on CNBC. Don't say, well, I'm managing the position because today Google is up and the market looks great and it's going to make a new hide. Therefore, I'm going to hold this and the fact that I'm up is $10,000. It doesn't matter to me because I'm going to manage the position and the position is going to go exactly to where the number ought to be based on this doing this and the time and this is going to happen.  You want to make money. If you're up, you need to get out. I'm telling you what to do. This is not, this is gonna go into the next thing I'm gonna say and only 15 minutes more to talk. Make the money made a great point to me and I said it to him.  He's too black and white and Galahad you are too and those of you that are trying to find these perfect, perfect, perfect, perfect, managing positions, whatever, just stop it. Trading is not black and white. It's not. If you trade black and white, you're not gonna do well.    I did the helping house last week and there was a guy that was, he was, I don't remember what the heck, what was the stock? Gosh, darn it. What was it? Was it VRX? Yes, I think it was this. Let me look. It was something so weird that the guy was short and I said, well, why are you doing this? Give me the strategy. He answered 10 times and never gave me the strategy because there wasn't any. Everything he said was a stochastic or a movie. Yeah, it was this. That's what he shorted. And he gave me 500 indicators. He shorted that bar. We shorted this. Or whatever. No, what did we do Friday? I'm losing my mind. Friday wasn't JPM. What was Friday? We shorted this. So we were shorting this and that guy was shorting this. Okay. You know, these indicators are not gonna tell you what to do, which is what everyone loves. That's why they wanna think black and white. People wanna think black and white. They want to know that if you're gonna do this, it's gonna happen this way. And nothing will ever, there will be no variance from that. Wrong. Trading is a skill and you must learn the skill to do it and you must learn how to recharge. So it's the only way you're gonna be successful and it's a skill that takes a very quick time for some people, a very long time for others, but if people are honing that skill and learning that skill in ways that are incorrect or wrong, which many people do, then it is problematic. It's very problematic for people. So then they're actually learning a skill that is teaching them not what to do the right way, which is what people find interesting about doing my class. So people are learning a skill that actually isn't working and that's really problematic. Cause then when they come around and find someone like me, then they have to unlearn what they learned and they have to learn something new.  It helps for the money. It helps for the money because then you won't be greedy. Then when if your goal is for the day of $1,000 and the stock starts to back up and you get out and you're black and white, you're like every day if I make my goal and out, fine. That works for money management for black and white, do it. My risk is $1,000 every day and I'm not varying off of that and point to stop. Great, that works for black and white. For managing the positions, for money management, black and white works for the skill set that you need that's required to train, it doesn't work right. And things, and the reason is because of the time in the market and chance and that's what it is. It's time in the market and chance to play a factor in these things that is no different from life. You could say I know that I'm going to go on a vacation on starting tomorrow on May 23rd.  I know that I'm access black and white. I'm not gonna trade for the next week. I've decided, that's it, boom. There's no chance it's not that I might trade. I made the decision I'm not doing. It's black and white. I'm not gonna trade to get back. One week I'm taking off, I need a break. Boom, that's black and white. Now, what's gonna happen in that week? Will I relax every day? Am I gonna end up doing work every day? Will I be refreshed and relaxed when I come back? I don't know. My plan of action is that I will but chances are I'm gonna have a million things to do and it might be Sunday till I get to relax and I might only get two days to rest. My thought is that I really wanna have a week of no work but it's probably not gonna end up being like that and I kind of know that the back of my head because I have things to do. Will I get everything done in one day? Will it take me two? Will it take me five? I don't know. So do you see that's life. It's no different from a stock, okay?  I don't know what's gonna happen here with this. It could continue. We could go higher. It may be done. You might have missed your exit. I don't know. Nobody does. It's not black and white. Is it going to go over the high? Yes. Can I tell you the exact time? Will it happen tomorrow morning at 10.35? No. It's so this idea of managing the position, it doesn't make any sense. You can't talk like a person, like you're running a fund or you're in CNBC.  You say to yourself, gosh, this looks good. I really, really like it. I've got the market with me. I wanna have a nice week. I'm gonna get out.  And that's what trader Lexi did and she got out. She made a hundred bucks. If this goes on tomorrow and she could have made 500, she's probably not gonna care. She may not even look at the chart the rest of the week but she won't worry about it the way some of you do. Trying to be a perfectionist and I don't know why. The perfection is in being able to have the skill at all. That's the perfection. The perfection is to have the skill at all and then you take this thing here that I'm showing you to help you which is valid and important and a great lecture here. And I'm almost done.  This makes sense. This I'm gonna do now. Because this I get and I'm realizing this idea of the R units that I've been aware of and that other places teach. It's trying to be too perfect and it's not realistic. It's too black and white. It's too black and white to say I'm gonna make 1.5 Rs in every trade that I do and I'm gonna hold it until four o'clock or bust. Okay, well you might lose in some of them. You might lose in some of them and be up a couple thousand dollars. Really? Is that what you want?  That's dumb. Okay? I mean, some of these gaps we've done, I can't think of any right now but there's some of these ones where the charts have massive tails and then they bounce, you know. And then if you don't get out, if you try to stay in them to close, you're screwed. So you can't even say that. Do you take 200 now in Google? Here was a run up this morning. You couldn't get out there. It looks good to run back up again. Is it gonna happen right now between now and 12 o'clock? Probably. If you wanna give it one more run up over the high, fine. But this was the morning exit. The morning exit happened here at 10 o'clock. Go figure. You missed the morning exit on this. Could it go higher? Yes, it could go higher for the next two days. It's getting close to making you higher. It looks good. The chart looks good. What do you want from me? You want me to tell you the exact exit? This is what I'm talking about. This is, you know, this is something that it's not about managing the position.  Okay, we got the market gapping up today. Good. We got a good trade today here. Good. It expires Friday. It's a holiday week. Guess what? The market is gonna be silent for a bunch of days this week. You may get some play in certain stocks on Thursday or Friday, but typically fund managers and traders, they go to the Hamptons. They're gonna be leaving and they're not leaving Friday afternoon. They'll be leaving Wednesday or Tuesday or Thursday. So, you know, how are these stocks gonna move if you don't have funds moving them? You might get one or two specially placed Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, but I don't even know what ones you will. People are taking off, okay? And so, you have to take all of the things together. How much time do I have left in this? What's the market doing? Where's the next target? All of these things. You are basing it on the money. That's exactly what you've been doing. That's exactly what's been a problem for you, Galahat.    That makes it even worse. One of the key ingredients to the lecture I just gave is you have to keep your risk the same so that you can even know that you're averaging 30 cents on every dollar move. You're averaging a dollar in every move. You're averaging 50 cents in every move. You're averaging 40 cents in every move. How are you gonna change and know what amount of money you need to risk to be able to make the goals you want if you don't even know, if you don't even keep the same risk for more than a week or two weeks or a month? You have to be able to have the same risk and you have to be able to have the win ratio to be able to go back and look and see and say what you're doing and knowing then what you need to risk to achieve your goals. That's what you need to know. So, in the options, it could be different. It might be you're risking $1,000 and averaging 500. Fine, that's 50%. If you're averaging 100%, then you'll know what you need to risk to make the 100%. You're focused too much on the money. That's the whole point of what I'm trying to say here to health people and you're the worst at it.  It's, you know, if you have to be focused on the win ratio, I'm giving it to you because I have the skill. So, the money management is on you. It's not managing the position. It's having common sense. It's some factor of common sense that has to go along with what you're choosing to do with your trades.  It's just not. The perfection exists in the system itself which is the fact that you can predict what stocks are gonna do 80% of the time. There. You're not gonna get any more perfect than that. So now, what do you have to do? Well, you have to figure out what is your financial goals. So if your financial goal is to make 20 grand a month, okay, go back and look at your trades with the same risk and an 80% win ratio over a period of two weeks, one week, one month, three months, whatever you wanna do. See where you're getting out. It may or may not be the same place as me. It doesn't matter. If the trades are winners, then you'll know. We're not scalping these trades anyways. All of them are moving at least probably a third to half an hour into the first drop that we're taking them. So it's not about scalping it for five cents. Any of these things we're doing. So you can probably make a good estimate based on one month period of time of what you need to be risking to achieve your goals. If you don't have the cash in the account to do it, you can switch to a prop broker instead of a retail place to get the leverage if you need it. Or you can build up your account over time and bump up your risk accordingly in $100 increments so you get there. Make the money. It asks me something too about, oh gosh, what? He asked me what gave me the confidence to bump my risk up because I had $150 risk for so long. He said, how did you bump up your $150 risk? Which I didn't bump up immediately to a thousand but I did kind of jump from 150 to like 400, then boom. I jumped up to a thousand. It was just the confidence in my system doing it for however many years and the skillset that I have. So you don't have to go 100, 100, 100, 100. You could trade between now and the end of the year with a $150 risk and then as of January 1st start risking $1,000 if you know you can do it. If you know you can do it and you know that you can do it, it's a knowing. You know, you know it. I know this stuff when I say it. It doesn't mean I'm right all the time, I'm not. But that's not how I feel. That's not how I feel. This is part of trading is that it's a knowing. So the black and white, there's no feeling in black and white. There's no emotions with it. No feeling, no trust, no belief, no confidence.  Zero. You can't train without that indicator.  You will lose your life savings without that indicator. If you wanna trade a system that's based on black and white, what are you gonna do if you don't have it? You won't be able to live or make any money at all. You don't wanna be like that. You wanna know that it's you, that you're the one that makes it happen, that you can do it no matter what. And you don't need any indicator and you don't need anything at all because you got it all up here. And you can't see my face, but I'm pointing at my head. It's all in your head. It's all up here. You know all the information. As you're reading it in live time, it's in your heart and you believe it and you know it and you have it, it's in you. It's not outside of yourself. All right, that was a good lecture. Does anyone have anything else they wanna say? If not, I hope you have a great week. Review your trades. Gator has a question. I gave you the picks for the room for the, I gave you the picks for the room. I honestly, honestly just need to take some days that I'm not working at all. And I do have this project I'm working on and then I gotta get some things done for it and the website is a major thing I have to work on. And if I don't, if I don't take the time, I will never get it done. I have things I gotta do for myself and I was in line when I said that earlier, I'm hoping to take some days off. I hope it's before the weekend, I don't know. If you don't feel comfortable training without me, then take the week off. I'm telling you, it's going to be slow. It is going to be slow this week. People have vacation homes, they go away for the holiday.  There will be, the market is open. If you trade Friday morning, the in and out of five minutes. The only day that looks busy is possibly Thursday. But I think people will be taking off to leave before then. I know from knowing people in the city that people leave early for the holiday vacations. They do. If they don't, they're caught in traffic six hours to get on a two hour drive. That's why people don't wait to leave to go away to the beach on Thursday or Friday. People will be leaving. They don't want to be caught in the traffic. Wherever they're going, the Jersey beaches, the New York beaches, wherever. So Maryland beaches, you got to take some time off for yourself to refresh for next quarter. No, I'm really not going to trade this week. I have things, I'm not going anywhere, but I'm not going to secret trade without you. Take the time and either take the week off or trade on your own and be careful. Mountain Girl, I will email you today. Great lecture, I'm super in my picks, thank you. Great lecture, you're welcome. Once in the money and the trade is running, trailing stops can keep one in a part of a trade, reducing risk preserved gains. Yes, you can do that. Feeling antsy about getting out and move stop towards the money. Yes, I don't trade like that, but yeah, there you go. Right there, that's your personality, Koala Bear.  So then that's, but it's the data. You go back and look at the data here. I'm going to go back to this.  Because part of this data, and this is what some of you were talking about when I was giving the lecture initially is I just made these numbers up. I'm just trying to, I'm just trying to put something here to make a point with the profits. The win ratio was the point I was trying to make, not the profits. The, what I would, the point I'm trying to make is that with the same R unit, somebody can make a crapload more money if they have a higher win ratio. That's the point. But, but either way, the thing is that you will be basing this on your own data. Your data is going to be different than my data. We can all trade JPM. We can all trade the market long today, which I didn't do, but if you did it, that was the call for the room. So we can all trade the Google option. Everyone's data, individual data will be different and separate, okay? Based on your method of deciding where you want to exit the trade, which has a lot to do with your own personality and knowing yourself about what you're comfortable with because stocks don't move in a straight line. So if you are still in this, and I'll go back and use this here, actually no, let's use Friday. Friday's a better example because Trader Lexi blew a cow Friday night because she was, took this trade and fell and was down into the Friday night. And actually someone else emailed me about it too. Oh my God, I was up in this and now I'm down in it and I didn't get out and I missed the exit and obviously you didn't. But let's just use this example here Friday. Here, no, let's go to the 15 minute. Here's the open, here was a run up Friday. 10.15 was the high on Friday. So here you have it. If you know you can't stand being down in a train, then when it runs up, get out of it.  It didn't. Now did it go over the number today? The answer is yes. The gap up helped to do it. Far over the number did it go. 937.75, what was the high today? Not bad, $4 plus. So it was worth holding it. But if you know you can't do that, then you gotta get out right of ways. If you can't do this for this to happen here, then you gotta get out right of ways. And guess what? This is pulling back now. What about tomorrow morning? What will it look like? Will it go up? Will it hit over here? It might. If you can't stand this, then you gotta get out when you're up. And that is a major, major hurdle for you, Galahat, because every time you're down, you say you're okay with it, you say you're okay with it, or you say you're okay with it. And then when it's down, then you're like, oh my gosh, I don't know what should I've done and missed the exit, or should I get out? And now where it's gonna go?  Whatever decision you make, you have to be okay with. And if you don't know what that is, then you better figure it out. You better figure it out. I mean, you need to figure it out. This is where you have to understand yourself.  But I tell you, if I did, some of you still wouldn't listen to me.  You have to make the decision on your own that you will want to be successful and you, what I'm saying is correct. And you want to do it. And it's not a failure of yourself to, it's not, you're not failing if you don't hold it to the high.  You're not not perfect if you don't do anything other than not take the trade or lose in a trade that worked. So the constant, constant criticism of yourself or feeling like it's not enough or I'm not doing good enough or it's not enough or it's this and that or I, all of that just wreaks havoc on you. You can't be like that. Unless you're not doing the trades, I'm calling, you're not doing anything critically wrong. Okay?  I don't think anyone's doing that. So what you're doing, if you're looking at other signals for indicators that goes back to the original lecture I was talking about earlier, Galahad, you're using indicators as black and white to help you with timing of these trades. And I don't believe that that works. If you have 100% conviction in that, that works, then you're gonna use that system that you're not following my system. So then I can't help you. I can only help direct you with my system which is gaps. It is, my belief system is that indicators do not work in the market because it's not black and white. For the very reason that I just gave the lecture.  So if you're gonna rely on that, then do it, then you're not doing my system. If you're gonna try to combine it, it's not gonna work because I don't believe they work. You were mad because there was a number that no one near was bidding in the Google on Friday. But you gotta understand that when these things move they can move a dollar in your direction or a dollar against you and still be fine. They can move $2 in your direction or $2 against you and still be fine. One of the reasons that these stocks are very good to do options in and I've been calling so many trades and they've been working for very profitable trades because they swing around.  They will make swings, but that's why some of these then can be huge trades. So again, know yourself. You could say, oh my gosh, I can't handle a swing. I can't do it. I can't handle a dollar swing or whatever. You gotta know yourself. What have you been doing for the past 20 years? Perhaps shoot for excellence as opposed to perfection. Yeah, exactly. I'd say that all along. I've never said the word excellence, but it's a great word. It's, I say you wanna get good. I say you wanna get good. I think good is good enough in the market. Good is good enough. You don't have to even be excellent. It puts too much pressure on some people. All you have to do is get good. All you have to do is learn the skill. You get good at the skill and you'll do well. All right, good luck to your people. I showed you some watches for this week. I don't know what anything does. Make sure you know Mr. X is on these options that you're in. Let IBM run out and probably till next week. Well, that you probably can't tell Trader Lexi unless you're watching it every single second or maybe you have something with the platform. Maybe you should call the platform, the broker about that because I'm unfamiliar with that platform. But you almost have to sit and watch it every day to see what went off, which nobody has time to do. I think I made the point. I wanted to make here. After a lengthy discussion. So have a great Memorial Day. Relax. Be careful this week if you trade on your own, which is fine. It's good for some of you to do that anyways. Practice your gap ratings. You'll do good. Don't go crazy. If you trade some of these days of the market slow, then maybe do half size or low volume. I mean, a lower risk, because the volume will be lower this week. I'm working on finding a better way to communicate, ways to help people do well in the market. And I think today was a good lecture and it's the start of something in my mind that I've been working on that it's gonna continue, it's gonna continue to develop in my mind because it's a challenge to communicate with people about trading and money and to mesh it together in a way that helps them. This is, I'm working on it. I'm gonna get there. Today was a good lecture and it's processing itself in my mind because I think all of these points I made today were valid and they're gonna help people. Yes, I've gotta get a lot done. Can't waste the time. All right, have a good day everybody. I'll talk to you later. You're welcome.


Mrs. Geeta Fogart delivered under me on 24th, that's on Christmas Eve at 5.47pm. She was a booked antinatal patient of mine. What I like about her as a patient is right from the beginning from her very first antinatal check-up, she was very particular about listening to whatever I had to say and going by whatever I told her regarding her diet, her exercise, you know being a wrestler, she was very used to a lot of exercise, so I had to tell her to tone down and you know do only those exercises which are permissible in pregnancy. But she had been active throughout her 9 months. Another thing what I like about her is that you know she had an absolute trust and faith in me. And I think that is very important in today's time to trust your gynecologist because I feel you know it's she who knows best about you and there is nothing that she is going to do to harm you or to harm your baby but you got to listen and you have to do exactly what she tells you to do. And the trust deficit should never be there between the gynecologist and her patient. In that in this regard I think Gita was very very you know very absolutely agreeing to whatever I said and she has her own questions but she never went on Google to find the answers. She would write them down, she would come and discuss them with me and I think this is what helped us in having a very good bond. At the end of it when she went into labour she was in early labour for quite some time and she said okay doctor if everything is going fine I am ready to wait. It's when she started having very strong contractions she asked me for her options and I told her about epidural that is the painless labour and you know everybody is always worried about anything which is new or some technology that is there and when I told her that it is painless labour will help you in taking the pains the way you should. She was ready to take it on and we gave her an epidural that is what we call painless labour and she progressed very fast and delivered absolutely normally and her husband was there in attendance with her in the labour room. I think both she and her husband have been extremely you know happy with the kind of experience they have had and this is the kind of feedback she has given me.


The great search brought to you by did you gain a different every single legal more users or powers of engineering to help you Yes, you find the things that you need on digikey.com a data. What is the great search this week? Okay this week we had a very popular project at the floppy disk USB drive and it uses a pipe portal and the pipe portal Which also I can hold on in the shop. I'll show the pipe portal because this was actually Sorry, yes Because it's actually has the fancy digikey logo. This was a partnership project that we did with digikey But it's a little bit old. It is long in the tooth as they say which is weird because like people's teeth don't get longer but anyways It's the same D51 plus an ESP 32 and it could use a re spinning because this is you know quite a few years old now We can finally get more chips and also like this did suffer a lot from the part shortage because the samd 51 wasn't available and one thing that's kind of neat is the new ESP 32 s3 Chips that are out now. So this is like the ESP 32 box. Let me just go to a dev for I don't think we have a dev kit that has a tft yet. So We have some dev kits. So one of the new peripherals that's available on the ESP 32 s3 Let me pull up the data sheet Is oh, this is not the full This is not the full depth sheet. I think but one of the interesting peripherals that's available on the ESP 32 s3 is that it can drive TTL displays like so normally like on the the pipe portal What we've got is Parallel display that's like eight We've got here is a 320 by 240 SPI or like 6800 or 8080 type display where you're using the frame buffer inside of the display It has memory inside and you write to it with SPI You just kind of like send pixels really fast but you you know, you write the pixels and they're they're stayed on the display and These displays are great for microcontrollers with low memory Because you just say like okay. I want to write some pixels over in the corner. You put those displays There's another kind of display where you write TTL data. Let's call it called TTL data Or dot clock is another way they're called and so these are second tft 55 inch so these displays The five inch like tft 40 pin These you have to write the data continuously and the VRAM is stored on the device So they have a less refresh flicker Refresh flicker because you write the entire display at once like you're constantly rastering the display on But you have to have something that has a peripheral to do that You can't bit bang it because you have to be drawing the pixels very quickly But the trade-off is you can drive much bigger displays SPI displays they tend to max out at like maybe 320 by 480 But usually they're 320 by 240 there and once you get to 480 by 320 it actually gets a little slow It's like tough to actually draw that much display.  I don't forget they have these cool RGB USB ports And let's look for tft display okay, so a Couple options here, but Even though it's not a So literally like a tft is a kind of LCD, but usually LCDs means something different Still it would be under the opto electronics graphic display and One thing that's interesting is that did you he has a really wide range So first off you've got displays like this and you can even tell it doesn't have that many pins. So, you know that this isn't a TTL like clock set out style display. This is like SPI most likely, but this isn't Always indicated. So this one's like SPI and then parallel 16 bit RGB this Usually means that it's still like you have to you know, write eight to six eight to sixteen pins and you you latch it So it still has the memory inside But there should be a couple options that are bigger So yeah now once you get to like this when you see like that 40 pin display at the bottom the 40 pin connector These tend to be TTL So let's take a look at what these are called because you can see they're all they're all mixed up together like there is You know this style and then there's like this plug-in style the ones with 40 pins, but this one is SPI, you know, it's still confusing. So let's go over here So these are called parallel 24 bit RGB Which makes sense because you end up having to have 24 pins for eight red with eight green eight blue And then you have v-sync h-sync dot clock and then Enable display enable or something So let's look for other displays that are of this type. So I'm actually going to cheat I'm gonna go over here and I'm just going to select color tft and parallel 24 bit RGB and they also only want active and There's actually quite a few Options and let's sort by price So 4.3 inches another popular size this was really popular for GPS And like handheld gaming Please note that there's also a couple times where you get displays and they have like backpacks and stuff built into them So just watch out for that There's resistive touch which you can see this has kind of like a Like a white outline because you see that like whitish outline So it's a resistive touch screen and then if you see this like a black bezel That's capacitive and then it has a separate you see there's like a tail. That's the Capacitive touchscreen. So a lot of options you're gonna see 4.3 inch 5 inch 7 inch Those are gonna be the most popular Three and a half sometimes you see 320 by 240, but I'll be honest when if I'm doing a 320 by 240 display I'll go with SPI. So let's go for I think 4.3 is kind of boring. Let's go for a 400 by 800 display And let's say it's in stock I can pick up something today and not in the marketplace. Okay, so it's 35 options Okay, there's one for that we stock a nice seven inch displays available and there's a few vendors You'll see it pop up a couple times. So DLC new Haven NHD Micro you can see again This is capacitive because there's got the it's got the secondary tail. That's the capacitive chip. I Want to go with let me see what's available here So let's see if I can get Something with you know, maybe capacitive touch and I think I want a five inch display Oh, I think Oops, I missed mis-selected something one moment This I wanted to look for okay. Well, you're doing yeah How do you even write drivers for these as one of the questions? Oh, that's a really good question So for these it's some other questions after the yeah, so I think I mis-selected the touch screen. Okay Don't forget you can always remove stuff at the bottom here For these displays the driver is almost always written by the Company that makes the chip because in a sense, there is no driver sometimes you initialize them Over I squirts your SPI just to get them like up and running But then once they're running you're literally just like slamming pixels to it as quickly as possible There is no I mean you can set the age sync polarity and v-sync and you can set that the timing data But there's no like driver in the same sense that a SPI display has a driver Okay, so actually I wanted to show a couple more things so one 4d systems has displays, but these have a UART connection, so they're not like a raw even though it looks like it's a raw display. They're not and then AZ and New Haven and DLC are the ones that have oh, yeah, this is the one. Sorry. It was resistive not capacitive um AZ displays has a lot of options available so check them out so they've got the one that I thought was really neat is They have a high brightness five inch IPS display So IPS displays, you know one thing that you can watch for is when you get if it doesn't say IPS like this one Doesn't have IPS in the title That means it's kind of visible only from like 20 to 40 degrees Whereas IPS you're gonna get like your modern smartphone where like you can look at it from like 80 85 degrees in every angle and so the actual display that I liked is This one not only is it IPS, but it's nice and bright 400 nits And you can compare different brightness like the backlight brightness will differ between them And then this one also there's another option. I think this is probably Maybe a slightly different brightness, but this one for 40 bucks is a really good deal because it's got IPS 800 by 40 pixels five inch display and it's got that parallel port for the parallel RGB clock for the ESP 32 s3 Note that it doesn't have that many IO. So even though it's just 24-bit color What you'll do is ground the bottom three or four pins of each Rg and b to get yourself 16 instead of 24-bit color. You'll have 16 bit color Just like kind of good enough for most uses And then those bottom bits you just ground them or you tie them together So you don't need as many GPIO. So just because the display has you know 24 bits of input you don't actually Write dated all 24 bits. You just ground the lower bits Write the upper bits and then you can you even technically dry these is like 8-bit color, right? You're only gonna get three, you know bits red three bits green two bits blue But because it's raw driven It doesn't there's no formatting of the data. Whatever gets written on every dot clock is what appears on the screen So I'm gonna make a board that takes the ESP 32 s3 and has the 40 pin connector plug it in But it's a standard connector and I can swap out different displays to make it a really nice big high portal So I'm gonna pick up one of these nice IPS five-inch displays And that's a great search


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Hey everybody, Dr. O here. In this video we're going to talk about the organization, the anatomy of the parasympathetic nervous system and then in the next video we'll cover its activation and its function. So the parasympathetic nervous system is also called the cranial sacral division because it's controlled by cranial nerves 3, 7, 9, and 10 and the sacral segments S2 to S4. So cranial nerves 3, 7, 9, 10, that would be oculomotor, facial, glassoverein, pharyngeal and vagus. So cranial nerves 3, 7, and 9 are going to control the head. Cranial nerve 10 controls the neck and your thoracic and abdominal pelvic cavity and then the sacral nerves take over for the reproductive system and the lower portion of the abdominal pelvic cavity there. So that's kind of the anatomy of it. Remember from our intro video that the preganglionic fibers are going to be really long. So see all those blue fibers travel almost all the way to the organ and then the postganglionic fibers are going to be short. So why does that matter? That means there's very little divergence. So the responses are going to be under much more local control whereas the sympathetic system causes these huge, diffuse, you know, broad effects. The parasympathetic nervous system like a single nerve might only control just a half dozen or so synapses there. So the controls are going to be a lot more specific and a lot more localized. The fight or flight system takes over your entire body. The parasympathetic nervous system is only going to be controlling specific areas and its primary function is going to be to stimulate organs, visceral activity versus everything else, right? So a real big picture before we jump into it in the next video. The parasympathetic nervous system conserves energy and helps with, you know, it actually promotes sedentary activities like digestion and urine production, these kind of things. All right, that's the organization of the system there. We covered the synapses or the neurotransmitters in a different video. We'll come back and talk about the function of the parasympathetic nervous system next. Have a wonderful day. Be blessed.


Like sorry, that's the reason I keep laughing. I keep thinking of Bill O'Reilly With Neil deGrasse tasting saying who put the moon there? It's the same. Are you equating we with Bill O'Reilly? Yeah Yeah, I'm okay, it's you're you're the Bill O'Reilly of moral philosophy And the argument When you look at the The consensus where they all agree all of the different authorities on the definition of faith It really does summarize that faith is an assertion of absolute conviction Which is assumed without reason and defended against all reason and that's really what it is it is So in fact the Christian worldview is a logically Incoherent worldview because it is dependent upon in this case revelation from another mind So your logic comes from external sources that are of a mind And you cannot logic about those minds because they won't let you you have no basis for a logically Coherent argument about what god can or cannot do even if one of those arguments is that he can logically make you See an argument in a way that cannot be debated Because you would still be deceived. Can I ask you one question? Yes. How do you know that your mind isn't being controlled? I don't I don't thank you very much and then you're done No, basically I was not that great and I always tell people this because uh, you know I I think that was one of the reasons why I was such a I think a good science journalist was I didn't understand half of the things I was covering Uh, you know, if they weren't the subject I I've studied which is geology I would have to learn about these things very quickly and therefore I would have to explain them in a way that People as dumb as me could understand them and I would you know if I was doing something really complicated If I had learned that subject I would have written the story in a very complicated way and very few people would have understood it But because I was so dumb I actually had to dumb it right down so that I could understand it and that most of my readers could understand it So I think that's why Oh god, we'll see okay, uh, I'm not again. I have no education I can't give you any sort of account of like the history of philosophy and what advancements have been made in philosophy What I can tell you is that science is a philosophy. I mean when you're doing science, you're doing philosophy You're just including empirical data and that's I mean that's really the only difference. I mean we can um, we can We can talk philosophy about you know determinism versus free will or mind and body dualism Or morality Uh, but then as soon as we use we have to use philosophy to pin down what exactly it is We mean by these terms. I mean this is what you have to use philosophy to get to Sam Harris's point for example, which is that morality has to do with Conscious experience. I mean you you don't get you don't arrive at that piece of progress without philosophy Once you get there though Science can swoop in and take over and go okay. Well, this you know, this would be immoral then and this would be moral um, but but you I was constantly imitating my teachers. I was annoying them I I went to school in pink trousers one time just to just because I knew it would get a rise out of them And I was sent home again, uh, I I've I've once uh, I collected lots of bangers one time Just before guy forks died and I put them in the roller in the school grounds Tied them all together and and I actually invented this fuse. I did far more interesting science stuff outside the science club I can't see why the free will is is uh affected by natural disasters No, we're asking you to answer the problem of evil. Why why the problem of evil? When it comes to natural disasters rather than people say making bad decisions that they then suffer from Set that aside Why do earthquakes happen? With god Okay, according to the bible if I answer according to the bible from the starting point which I have now, you know Um, that's the foundation in in my worldview. It says that death and suffering came through sin It also put the natural world in into a state of of decay and you know, things like that But it's okay. So back to call No, but it really I mean it first got to me when we had the whole gm debate in europe, uh, which was One of those ridiculous debates where you had people saying that Oh, we cannot grow GM Plants in europe, uh, it's you know, it's it's inherently inherently dangerous because it's not natural It's you know, it's humans. It's researchers playing god Come on. I mean Smallpox was natural wasn't it and I don't think many people really approved of that Actually, I'm always in Yeah, I mean if we think they princess layer think actually I can do princess layer. There we go. I'm princess layer now Hey, I'm doing a pretty good job, but this breathing stuff you should appreciate it I I can't I've not got my glasses on I had to take them off Try and break my hair on it. Can I need you one of your pranks? I'm wearing headphones I'm done talking dpr


This paper compares the photocatalytic efficiency of titanium dioxide nanoparticles TiO2N piece, when they are deposited onto a polymeric electrospun fiber matrix by three different methods, electrospraying, spraying, and dipcoating. The host electrospun matrix is composed of polyacrylic acid fibers crosslinked with cyclodextrin beta cd, which is able to stabilize the TiO2N piece. The resulting photocatalysts were then evaluated for their ability to reduce the water contact angle, degrade an organic dye, rodamine B, and control the roughness, adherence, and pitting corrosion potential. The results showed that the presence of TiO2N piece was sufficient to induce a superhydrophilic behavior after UV irradiation. However, there were significant differences in the photocatalytic efficiency of the TiO2N piece, depending on the method used to deposit them. This article was authored by Zabeer Sanjua, Pedro J. Rivera, Anaconda, and others. We are article.tv, links in the description below.


Good day fellow investors, yesterday while I was filming the video I said that the market is flat and that I hope it will remain like that. It didn't. It was a terrible day yesterday, 2% down for the week, 6% down and the SAP500 is in negative territory for the year, 3.19%. This shows how fast things change in the market. In every stock market this has been the case forever. And in line with that we're going to discuss the fund of flows, how much money went out of the market. We're going to discuss tech stocks, even if we touched on that yesterday, we're going to discuss the Fed, extremely important news overshadowed by what's going on. We're going to discuss tariffs, how that might impact earnings and stocks. I'm going to give you the basics of what to do now, which is I think what you all want to know. Then we're going to touch a little bit on whether the stock market crash will lead to into a recession and on gold. Let's start. ETFs suffered a net outflow of 11.2 billion for the week. Total outflows from ETFs, funds, stocks were around 30 billion. So we have a stock market of 25-30 trillion market capitalization. 30 billion, just 30 billion, 0.1% gets out. The stock market crashes 6%. And that's what I have been discussing, always the risk and the exit door. The importance is there is so much money, paper money in the stock market. The key is the exit door. How big is that exit door? When people rush to sell and we know that we can check how much funds, how much ETFs are buying or selling and you know how much people are selling, the bid disappears and the ask goes down like a rock and that's why stocks crashed. The more sellers there are, the more panic there is, the faster stock markets crash. It was a slow, slow, slow climb up for years, years and years, but that crashes and turns extremely fast because nobody wants to buy in a negative panic trend market as everybody wanted in on the upside on the market. And that's simply stock market fluctuations. Back on the week, the week started with reports on Facebook, data misuse. Then Facebook tried to calm advertisers, but it didn't help much. The stock is significantly down over the week, 14%, which is a big hit for Facebook. But let me put it again into perspective. Over five years, the last five years, Facebook is still up 519%, which is a huge performance. Why is Facebook up 500% over the last five years? Because nobody was thinking during the last five years as stocks and everything went up and everybody was piling money into the market, nobody was thinking about the risks. And I know I might have sounded boring during the last 10 months constantly discussing the risk, risk reward, risk, risk, risks when, oh my God, you're so boring Sven. But investing is all about risk, reward and people often forget, especially when the market goes up, forget about that. But this week was an excellent reminder of the stock market of the business risks even for big companies like Facebook. And we're going to discuss that more in future videos. So please subscribe to get more of those videos and support the channel back to the risk. Look how the VIX index, the volatility index was flat and around 10. For most of the time prior to February this year and then it exploded and volatility has hugely increased. Higher VIX index means that the market is looking for direction, much more volatility, much more risk. So the risk now is bigger and people are looking at those risks and everything is now telling you sell, sell, sell, sell. Before that everybody was telling bye, bye, bye. And now what to do will come just after we discuss what the Fed has been saying which is extremely important but often overshadowed by the tariffs and the Facebook tech disaster. Let's see what Jerome Powell said in his speech, first speech for the Fed. So the Fed raises rates and signals faster pace in coming years. This is very important. Higher rates mean putting the brakes on the economy, which means slower growth or preventing an overheating economy. And there are two risks that always emerge when the Fed raises rates. If the Fed raises rates too fast then it dampens economic growth, which is not good. If it doesn't raise rates too fast then the economy might overheat because there is too much credit, everything is doing too much and then it crashes too much later. So you don't see a small recession, you see depression. So we will see if the Fed will manage to balance out and make a soft landing. No, but the market didn't react on Wednesday because everybody okay, the economy is doing better, higher interest rates will be balanced out by better economy, so those things are good. But then first they came and tariff news came in. Trump said it's out of control, US to apply tariffs on Chinese imports restrict tech deals. So the White House is putting together a package of 25% tariffs on some Chinese import, 1,300 product categories and so it would affect about 60 billion or about 10% of the 500 billion the US imported from China. Next news, boom, China retaliation and then we have a trade war. Is there really going to be a trade war? Is there going to be a lower global economic trade which wouldn't do good for stocks? There might be some political benefits in different countries, but on the aggregate lower trade wouldn't do good for stocks. If we look at earnings, the most hit earnings by a 10% tariff on all US exports and imports would be hit is the energy sector, the industrial sector and the consumer discretionary sector. Earnings would be hit for the SAP 500 between 4% and 6% depending on US response and other partner's retaliation. It isn't a big trade war yet, but what Wall Street doesn't like is uncertainty. Uncertainty increases the risks because you don't know what will happen, how it will happen, how far will this trade war go and this lowers of course prices, lowers projections, lowers investments, lowers earnings and at the whole spiral just turns. And the Fed might even not raise interest rates in order to protect for the downside from an increased trade war. We'll see how that will work out, but for now the risk is much higher. Now what to do? Well there is the simplest solution to everything and I'll quote Buffett for that. Your investment returns are correlated to the underlying earnings of the assets you own, with potential boom periods due to euphoria and lower interest rates and potential bust periods due to panic and higher interest rates. So check your portfolio, see what are the earnings in relation to your portfolio, see if you are happy with that yield or with how much of your portfolio, how much risk are you willing to take for that yield. The SAP 500 can crash 50% in the next year without a problem because it is at such a high level. So you have to see okay, for that risk what is the yield? The yield of the SAP 500 is what 4% now? So you have to see okay, 4% per year over the long term. Am I willing to take that risk? Can I take that volatility, those drops which will eventually come as they always do? What am I willing to sacrifice? How much will I be exposed to stocks? When you find investments, when you look at investments from a business perspective, not from a stock market perspective, you know okay, these are the earnings, this will be my returns. So looking at the fundamentals, looking at what you own. Are you happy owning it forever? If the stock market would close for the next 10 years, would you be happy owning that? That's the attitude that will help you make decisions in this market. If you're too afraid for owning that, you bought it because it will go up, the market is still so high you have a chance to get out. If you bought it because of the business, you will weather whatever happens because you are happy with what you own. Back on the interest rates, higher interest rates, lower asset prices and this is the Fed's projection. So somewhere around 3, 3. something percent, which means that bonds will yield 5% stocks might yield 7%. That's a 50% stock market crash ahead. We'll see how it works out by 2020.  Now will this stock market crash lead to a recession? Let me quote Sam Wilson on that. The stock market has predicted 9 out of the past 5 recessions. And if we look at the chart we can see the red bear is a recession that actually started after a stock market decline and the white is when it didn't happen. On the chart here we have 7 actual recessions and 6 times it didn't happen. So simply there is a 50-50 chance that the stock market is predicting a recession. There is a 50 chance it will happen. There is a 50% chance it will not happen in the next year, 2 years. That's something you have to implement in your decision making.  In the stock market, in finances you never know. You can just adjust to probabilities. If there is a 50% chance of a recession, then okay, how am I going to play that out? How am I going to position my portfolio to what can happen? Nobody knows what will happen. And if you invest with conviction, oh this will happen, that's the fastest road to go broke. Unfortunately it is like that. Probabilities, risk assessment, portfolio positioning. That's how you have to invest for the long term. Just a quick take on gold. As I have been saying, gold is a hedge. And in this short negative week it was the positive part of people's portfolio. I don't think gold is a stock market crash hedge. It's more a monetary policy hedge. But nevertheless, if it works as a hedge even for the stock market I wouldn't matter. So very interesting how that works out will make a video update on gold. I'll have mentioned a lot of things. I'll update more, make more in detail videos on the things I have mentioned. So please subscribe to support the channel. Thank you for watching. Looking forward to your comments and I'll see you in the next video.