Now there are two ways by which you can think of randomization. Now one way is just like there are two ways of which you can think of any dynamic game. One is through the normal form, the other is through the extensive form. By in the normal form we just list out the strategies and then think of the game as a static game in those strategies. And in the extensive form we actually observe what the you know the flow of the information that is that is happening within the game. Now randomization can also be thought of in these two different ways. The first way is that well you convert the game to an equivalent normal form and then now in that normal form we have one way of randomizing already which is that a player can pick a pure strategy from that normal form at random. This is what is called a mixed strategy because that is what we refer to as mixed strategy in our in static games. So first way of randomizing is choose a pure strategy at random. Now pure strategies in a dynamic game are functions. So you have a space of functions, set of functions and you choose one of them at random. The probability distribution or the probability with which you choose the every function is what what you are is now the strategic decision. So choose a pure strategy at random. So this is what is called a mixed strategy for a dynamic game. Can you tell me what would be the other way of randomizing? Yeah, so each player would choose a pure strategy at random. So what would be another way by which a player could randomize? So another way of randomization is the following that whenever he gets to an information set the player is aware of the actions that are available at that information set he can choose an action at random at each information set. So at each information set he chooses an action at random. So he chooses a probability distribution on the set of actions available at that information set. So choose an action at random at each information set. This is what is referred to as a behavioral strategy. So the first one chooses a function at random. So it specifies an action at each information set. So at every information, so one of these functions is chosen at random. In the second case we define, so in the first case what we need to do is define one probability distribution which is over the set of all functions or over set of all strategies. In the second case we need to define a probability distribution for each information set but it is over the set of all actions available at that information set. As you can see these are both valid ways of randomizing. A player may want to wait for an information set and randomly choose an action that is the behavioral strategy or he may say well here is my set of strategies I am going to pick one of them at random. Now the second one which is the behavioral strategy is something akin to a delayed commitment. Essentially the player is waiting for the information to be available before he commits to a strategy because the information, the probability with which he is going to take an action depends on the information set he is at whereas the first one is akin to a prior commitment, it is roughly akin to a prior commitment because he is picking a pure strategy at random without waiting for what, without waiting for the intra-gay information to actually get realized, is this clear? Now the question for you is, is there a difference between the two or is there are these equivalent or is one the subset of the other or one more somehow richer than the other? You can see both are very reasonable ways of randomizing so if one is a subset of the other that is an important result which basically it would tell us that well you can focus on one of these classes only, no this is multi-acting. In fact, in a single act, in a single act game this point actually becomes moot. The reason is because along every path a player will play it exactly once let us say and each such way of playing along that path defines for him a pure strategy and that is equivalent to then picking the action in that information set. So these actually become equivalent, I will show this formally but in fact the point is moot in the case of a single act game. The point becomes interesting in a multi-act game because now player has to play multiple times so should he commit to a distribution on the set of pure strategies at the outset or should he do a delayed commitment and play actions at random at each information set, yeah it is a strategy so it is a function that tells you what to do at each information set. That strategy is chosen at random it says that you know play this action at this information set that action at this etc. So based on the information sets definite set of actions are specified so for each information set an action is specified but the strategy as a whole is chosen at random amongst all strategies so related to this question so you can see both of these are basically producing actions at random right but the mechanism for producing the actions is different. In one case you are defining a set of strategies which is functions from information sets to actions which is telling you what action you will be each strategy tells you what action you will be taking at each information set and you pick one such combination at random right that is the mixed strategy. In case so effectively what you are doing is picking actions at random but through these combinations you are picking a particular pure strategy you are picking amongst the set of pure strategies whereas in the second case you are being more explicit you are choosing actions at random at each information set right. So somehow the equivalence of these two has something to do with whether these two in fact lead to similar or classes of distributions on your actions because if they did then you know one way of randomizing would be equivalent to another way of randomizing right. So let me show you an example it is actually true that these are not equivalent in general okay and here is a simple example to show this so let us start so consider this game this is okay so here is player 1 starting here let us say he has two actions L1 R1 then if he plays R1 then player 2 plays here L2 or R2 and player 1 now has to play again okay but player 1 does not get to observe what player 2 has played out here okay so these two nodes here are in the same information set for player 1. The game can end in 4 sorry 5 possible leaf nodes let us just name these leaf nodes and let us see what can happen in each case okay so let us say let us call this outcome O1 this outcome is O2 O3 O4 O5 I am deliberately not putting numbers here because I do not want you to get distracted by the numbers so we have to just think of which outcome is getting realized okay so that then we focus on that rather than you know saying how much payoff each player is getting yes it is a multi-act game player 1 is acting twice no no no it is not in feedback form it is a multi-act game it is not in feedback form yeah that is a different that is what I said last time right a feedback stage wise feedback form is a very specific form of multi-act game multi-act is in general just not single act yeah okay any other question clear okay yeah I mean you could you could but you could potentially reduce it to that sort of form but I mean that is that is not the question here I mean it is whether this can be you could potentially add some fictitious action for player 2 in this stage and then make it into feedback okay but anyway that is not our concern here so if there are five possible outcomes okay and let us what we will do is we will do we will allow players to randomize in these two different ways alright and let us see if we can we actually get some kind of parity between the two ways of randomizing okay so first to begin with let us let us look at let us write out the set of pure strategies for player 1 okay so I think I should write something here also for player 1 so this this is again L1 L1 L1 R1 okay yeah so let us write out what are the pure strategies for player 1 for player 1 has two information sets the node that he starts with and the second one is the this information set and at each information set he has two actions okay so so there are four possible pure strategies therefore L1 here L1 here L1 here R1 here R1 here L1 here and R1 here R1 here okay so I will just write these pure strategies for player 1 I will just write them in short as L L1 L1 L1 L1 R1 R1 L1 and R1 R1 okay how many pure strategies for player 2 he has just one information set he has only two pure strategies which is to play L2 or R2 so what is now a mixed strategy for player 1 a mixed strategy for player 1 is a probability distribution on this set here on this set right which means he is going to play one of these at random okay so mixed set of mixed strategies so let us call this gamma 1 and let us call this gamma 2 set of mixed strategies what are the set of mixed strategies for player 1 it is he has four pure strategies so you can think of it as a let us say y in R4 such that y is greater than equal to 0 and it is a probability distribution right so it is a this probability distribution on this set of pure strategies which has four elements clear so it is specified by so this set is every point in this set is has four coordinates okay out of which one is redundant because this one transpose y is equal to 1 so you can say well this is you give me this is specified by three parameters so mixed strategy is specified by three parameters okay what about the set of behavioral strategies for player 1 so how do I define the set of behavioral strategies for player 1 so he in a behavioral strategy he has to choose an action at random at each information set okay so there are how many information sets to for player 1 so at this information set he chooses an action at random okay so what are so he has to pick a probability distribution on this action set so behavioral strategy will be specified by those by that probability by the probability distributions for each information set right so at this information set he chooses an action at random similarly at this info sorry at this information set he again chooses an action at random okay so a behavioral strategy then would be say he plays problem l1 with probability alpha and r1 with probability 1 minus alpha at this information set and at the other information set he plays l1 with probability beta and r1 with probability 1 minus beta this is a behavioral strategy right so every choice of alpha and beta between 0 and 1 will give me a behavioral strategy is this clear so do I need to say specifically what is the probability of playing this l1 and this r1 here no it is the same because he has they will they will also be beta and 1 minus beta because at this information set he has to play this as a function of just that information right okay so the set of behavioral strategy is therefore is specified by just two parameters alpha, beta now this is immediately telling you something right the set of mixed strategies is specified by three parameters right and the set of behavioral strategies is specified by two parameters. So we cannot really expect any kind of subset type relation like that one is a subset of the other or something like that because these are these are now objects in two different spaces okay these are fundamentally I mean there are more free variables in mixed strategies than there are in behavioral strategies. So we cannot expect a subset type relation but we can so therefore we have to talk of sort of a relation between these that is beyond just inclusion you know that one is a special case of the other because these are this is a this is an R2 these are two it is a distribution yeah no no no so the see it is not a subset you what what you are saying is that I can try to create a relation between the two okay so that is in fact the point that if you are looking for an inclusion type of thing where one is a special case of the other then we have to ask special case and under what notion right special case under what notion right because it is certainly not a subset right then in what sense is this a special case says something has to be preserved under both type of strategies for you to get one as a special case of the other right. So this basically becomes the essential dilemma now if you think about it we have logically said that we could allow players to randomize in these two ways which are which seem both you know reasonable and it should be allowable that players be allowed to randomize in this way but one kind of randomization gives a player who seems to be somehow not you know the same as the other so then we have then we we put we are we get into this position where we now have to choose this is something which we would not want to do as game theorist that we would not want to tie a player's hands and say that this is what he should do we should allow strategic freedom to the player now have we do is there something that one one can now still say that these are in some way similar or equivalent or interchangeable or whatever right. So this is essentially the the juncture we reach and now in so we have to come up with a way by which we say well well is is in what sense are these two strategies you know comparable is clear so yeah yeah so that is part of the that is beginning you are now beginning to think in that direction essentially we have to think of what we what are we meaning by equivalent right so so then you ask ok well equivalent ok well if it is equivalent from the point of view of payoffs right then we can ask ok well if one framework you can say as well I am asking for equivalence in terms of payoffs which means that the problem which means that the payoff that I get the expected payoff that I get under one I should also be able to get it under the other by a suitable choice means for all mixed strategies that give me a certain expected payoff can I produce a behavioral strategy that gives me a gives me the same payoff this could be one's notion of equivalence because then in that case I do not care about whether I use and as a as a player I do not care and likewise as a as an observer of the game I do not care what the player is doing whether he is randomizing this way or randomizing that way but you can see there is one catch there as well because the payoff the expected payoff depends not just on what this player is doing but also what other players are doing so then we have to define expected in a suit expected payoff as being the same in a certain in a very strong sense that it means that regardless of what others do this guy should be able to simulate the same same payoff with two different types of randomizations right yeah on join distribution and marginal distribution on roughly yes yeah correct so you are absolutely right essentially these two ways of randomizing they define for you a joint a joint distribution on the probable on the set of nodes of the directory they tell you with what probability if I tell you a make strategy or a behavioral strategy for each player ok whatever combination some may play mix some may play behavioral effectively it from there I should be able to compute the probability of the appearance of the probability that the game history passes through each node for every node I should be able to compute such a probability right so you are absolutely right but then now I can compute that but then now for equivalence what should I ask for so what Ashwin was saying was that you can ask for something you can you start with the payoff let us just say ok let the play let us just ask that the probability of reaching the leaf nodes is the same right but then we have a joint distribution which tells us the probability of reaching any node not just the reef node right so then that gives you that that then demands us maybe maybe should we be extending that why leaf node only should we be allowing for all nodes if we allow for all nodes does it become too restrictive etc etc these are all questions are involved in in in trying to come up with the right notion of equivalence right so so the this this question actually was is is actually very interesting and it is it turns out it is related finally whether you can whether there is any equivalence between these two has something finally to do with the amount with memory these this issue comes up only in multi-act games and as I said the fundamental new feature from in multi-act games as opposed to single-act games is the issue of memory what does a player know of what he knew earlier ok and whether these two forms of randomization this form of randomization or the other mixed and behavioral whether these two can be interchanged in a in a in an effective in a you know in a in an effective way is eventually decided by what a player can remember ok so the memory has memory has a huge role to play here ok so so what I will tell you is this notion of equivalence so so the way so it turns out actually that if you restrict ourselves to only leaf nodes right here if you restrict ourselves to only leaf nodes it becomes to it becomes to let us one is it does not become elegant the other is it also leads to a whole bunch of other loopholes which we which we will have to plug later ok so there are much a much better notion of equivalence is is that you ask for equivalent that you can simulate the same distribution for every node in the ground for every node in the tree ok what we will do is we have now two different ways of randomizing so we will let sigma i be mixed strategy of player i so this is a probability distribution on so probability distribution on gamma i which is a set of pure strategy and bi is the behavioral strategy is a behavioral strategy so behavioral strategy is a conditional probability distribution now given each information set it produces a probability distribution on the set of actions so it is not it is a so it is actually a collection of conditional probability distributions ok so this is so the way we write this is that bi of this given an information set eta i is a probability distribution on actions available at eta i ok and I will put in another notation here mu i this will stand for any either of the above so when I write for all mu i for example it would mean that it could be it is essentially all mixed and all behavior ok that is what it would mean ok now so here is the definition of equivalence mixed strategy sigma i a mixed strategy a mixed strategy sigma i and a behavioral strategy bi are equivalent are said to be equivalent if for every mixed stroke behavioral strategy mu i behavioral strategy mu minus i sorry strategy mu minus i and every vertex x in the game tree we have the following probability of reaching the vertex under sigma i when player i plays sigma i and others play mu minus i is equal to the probability of reaching that vertex x when player i plays b behavioral strategy bi and others play mu minus i so notice how strong this is but this is how this is what we need otherwise we will end up having too many loopholes to fill as I said ok so this is strong why is this so we are saying that two notions two stripes of strategies sigma i is equivalent to bi if for everything that the others play they could play mixed stroke or they could be behavioral that is and that is encompassed into mu minus i so any mixed or behavioral strategy combination or that the others could play called mu minus i and for every vertex in the tree these probabilities are the same ok this is what is this probability this is the probability that you reach vertex x when player i plays sigma i and others have playing mu minus i and this is the probability that of reaching vertex x when player i plays bi and others play mu minus i this is clear so once I specify a profile of strategies combination of mixed behavioral whatever it produces for me a probability distribution on the nodes of the tree so these two quantities are well defined what I am asking for is that regardless of what the others play I should be able to get the same distribution that I get from sigma i that I should be able to get the same one from bi ok so this means that this makes these two strategies equivalent ok so the I switch from sigma i to bi I should be able to if I if the distribution of probability distribution on the nodes remains the same and others and it remains the same regardless of what the others play ok then regardless of remains I mean the equality holds regardless of what the others play ok of course the distribution will keep changing with the choice of mu minus i but but when it changes it changes to the same the the one that I get with sigma i is equal to the one that I get with bi is this clear so now as a result of this we get the following simple fact that if if sigma i is is equivalent to bi is if the mixed strategy sigma is equivalent to a behavioral strategy bi then for all mu minus i the the payoff that a player or the the cause that a player gets when he plays sigma i and others play mu minus i is equal to the cause that he would get when he plays bi and others play mu minus i is clear of course the value of the cost will will depend on what others are playing but regardless of what others play I can get the same values by switching from bi to sigma sigma i to bi is this clear ok right so and now this is equivalence between strategies of one player if you have this way equivalence between the strategies of all players right then you would have that for this is true for every player ok every player will be able to switch from between behavioral and mixed


What's up guys this is Alex from Xtrades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list and if you are here at this video it's probably because you survived a chaotic week last week with FOMC and also big tech earnings. There is a couple things that that do happen this week. You can go to the economic calendar here. We have nothing scheduled for Monday luckily. Tuesday we do have Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking at the Economic Club of Washington. This could be a non-event since pretty much what he said. You know people could take what he said at the FOMC meeting as written in stone already. He was pretty dovish. He didn't really give any hawkish tones that scared the market. Pretty much he did it exactly what was expected. They only did a 0.25 basis point hike and we were hoping you know bears were hoping at least that you know you would see him kind of you know put economic conditions you know back in place where you know where they should be with rate hikes and you know through a rate hike cycle which is normally I mean it's going to have pressure on earnings. It's going to have a pressure on the economy etc. You could just see here in his voice he's a little bit more optimistic but where we're headed we're not seeing you know a tightening in the labor market as well as inflation coming down which kind of gives it that soft landing narrative right that you know everybody was hoping for. The other within Jerome Powell speaking Tuesday we do have Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr speaking as well. Wednesday we have more Fed speakers. We've got John Williams, Fed Governor Lisa Cook. We've got Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr and the Atlantic Fed President Raphael Bostic. We also have Minnie Annapolis, Fed President Neil Kashkari, Fed Waller as well.  We have initial jobless claims continuing jobless claims gives a little hint into the labor market. Another thing with the labor market at the F1C meeting you could just see that Powell was pretty much kind of shrugging off the labor market and maybe you know it didn't really matter that we haven't seen that dip you know in the labor market that you know everybody was hoping for to show that Fed policy is working because regardless inflation is still coming down. We're barely seeing tightening in the labor market and that does give the soft landing narrative you know that everybody's hoping for. We do have Friday which I would argue this is the biggest economic data of the week it's the consumer sentiment this does give you know mid-session volatility about 30 minutes after the open it always comes out at 10 o'clock on Fridays so keep a lookout for that. We also have Fed Governor Waller speaking another Fed guy Patrick Harker speaking as well but other than that we do have limited event risk this week so all the big tech earnings is out of the way F1C meeting is out of the way which hopefully will give us a pretty good insight into how the market trend will go throughout here from now on. If Fed Powell doesn't want to talk back to market after interpreting a dovish Fed we could see a continued rally if he does want to walk back and put the market back in its place to you know where originally everybody thought it would be you know it could be bearish so I would say Powell Tuesday is probably the most probably has the most you know event risk out of everything otherwise big tech earnings are all out of the way you know the interest rate decision is made and the F1C meeting is out of the way. Well let's go ahead and get into our first setup here we're looking at UPS I really like how this is breaking out here you can see we had asymmetrical wedge forming you got your downtrend line you got test one test two made a test three finally breaking out one thing you do want to see UPS do here is a break and hold over 190 160 190 160 comes from this pivot right here where you see the red line marked and the red arrow we want to see UPS getting over that holding as new support maybe even keep seeing the MACD holding a positive signal which currently is then if you zoom in here this is a positive MACD signal your main level of focus just make sure it's holding outside of the breakout make sure it gets over 190 160 and holds and then you know that can maybe take you up to 296 which is this little peak resistance right here before having just a terrible sell off yeah that's UPS looking at calls on that by the way we do have an upside bias for UPS here looking at calls next we're going into CVX if you turned into the last video we only had three setups but one we did have was Exile puts and that was because it pulled up in the supply and I think mainly Exile did pull back because you know CVX has such a big influence you know being one of the top weighted names inside the Exile index but this week it is pulling directly into support at 166 83 166 83 it comes from this pivot right here and we want to see it making a base here maybe even reverse to the upside then we see it reverse to the upside you'd probably be looking for 50 EMA area which you can see right here is the 50 EMA if it pulls up into the 50 EMA you could probably look for short term resistance about there and that's assuming it does make the base so that'd be your first price target just that short term 50 EMA well I can't even really say a short term because this is the daily time frame so you know the moving average is going back 50 days and implementing that into an average that's your more medium term moving average your longer term is obviously your 200 EMA which is this one on the bottom right here yeah for CVX here we're looking at calls this would be a counter trend reversal play you can see despite you know market redness spy down QQQ down we do have CVX holding up 0.26% so a close green you can consider that relative strength Exile was a relative weakness play so we had oil down Friday brought market up and that was a relative weakness plate maybe displaying a rotation out of energy and now you can see why our bare thesis on Exile did come into play and energy did sell off that week one setup that didn't work last week was boil which is a natural gas play it looked very oversold but Monday morning it instantly gap down like 14% so this is before I mean anybody could even enter luckily so hopefully everybody you know saw that 14% gap down you know thought twice you know before entering and looking for upside because that did indicate you know very very very strong relative weakness so that was one setup that didn't work last week you know they're not all going to work you know we did have Exile work out pretty good and our index analysis was pretty good as well so we'll get into that soon but otherwise CVX looking at calls 166 83 support looking for a move up to daily 50 EMA one thing you do have going against you MACD is negative if you're skeptic maybe wait for that to turn positive before you know trying to catch upside momentum so this will be for counter trend traders looking to get you know a dip and buy low next we're going into X the United States steel which has a crazy run really nice rally probably due to US Steel soaring to highs you can see down here in this little you see down here in this little newswire alert US Steel source to nine month high as steel shipments seen rising this year one thing I like about X here overextended to the upside pulling into the 61.8 percent retracement if you aren't familiar with the 61.8 percent retracement it is called the global ratio and when you're measuring Fibonacci levels in a downtrend the 61.8 is usually a very strong resistance point and you could see that in this FXI example here retraced all the way back hit the 61.8 strong resistance for about a you know week or two going to HYG which is high yield corporate bond ETF you can see the same thing you get a downtrend we measure down from high to low pulls up into 61.8 strong resistance for about a week or two so I just want to show you why X here can see resistance it's pulling up into the 61.8 you got a strong sellers wick and you can see our two points are just from this you know 52 week high or maybe it's an all-time high you know down to this recent low and you can see why I got this huge sellers wick because I just pulled right into the 61.8 which is usually a strong resistance point for people to take profit go down to the short term you can see clear resistance probably algorithms other traders you know just responding to the 61.8 retracement so I really like X here for puts price targets you'd obviously be looking you know maybe back down to the 50 retracement you can even be maybe a little more conservative than that if you wanted to just go down to the shorter time frames or maybe you could use this level right here it's previous resistance at 2891 as a short-term price target I don't care how you do it you know just make sure you're not you know shooting all the way down for lows or something because markets can change instantly so mostly for projections on swing trades I'm looking you know for you know short-term moves like something like a you know hold for a couple days maybe a week or two and then you know get out because I'm more of a short-term trader as are a lot of people because then you can just use that cash you made and implement it into a different sector or idea yeah X looking at puts on this clear 61.8 retracement rejection with a strong sellers wick you do have the mac do you going against you do you have a positive signal here so keep an eye out on that stop loss would need to be over this high arc looking at the same thing so with our 61.8 percent retracement thesis you can see pulled up into 61.8 pretty much at strong resistance at the 200 e-maze well right here also had a supply zone which formed over here and carried out into resistance over here so you do have another 61.8 percent retracement set up here and like I said earlier you know golden ratio strong resistance every time it pulls in if it decides to get over it's obviously that could invalidate it so if it does get over the 61.8 you know maybe this similar setup would not play up and you can see the same thing with fxi so just resistance same thing I showed you earlier so that's what we'll be looking at on x and arc both 61.8 percent retracement setups you'll be looking for resistance continued resistance if you wanted for arc maybe wait for this friday low to get taken out which would be at 4210 so if it gets under 4210 that gives you you know pretty clear shot down to the next demand zone which forms right here this is a rally rally base rally demand zone so you could see it you know get down to there and try to base out about there and that said about the 40 range so arc looking at puts next we're going into pdd a chinese ticker you see it formed a rising wedge is now breaking the uptrend you got test one test two multiple tests here another test right there and finally starting to break down ideally you'd see a move down to 89 36 comes from that pivot low right there I could just see it now coming down to that area probably try to base out about there maybe hold up the 50 ema as a general area of support we type in fxi which is the etf for chinese large caps you can see a similar setup which could also validate the bare thesis and if you guys aren't up up to date with the news we did shoot down a chinese spy balloon apparently not sure if that will heat up relations between us and china but it's something to consider considering you know the ccp did respond and say that you know they could respond in a similar fashion and shoot down something of ours so just something to keep an eye on but you can see i mean fxi same thing test one test two test three breaking down the wedge finally broke the uptrend line probably could see you know that moved down to the 200 ema and 50 ema confluence right here so if you wanted to i mean you could look at puts on fxi instead of pdd um fxi does have really good liquidity on the options so it has you know strong volume and open interest pdd usually spreads are a little bit wider implied volatility is pretty high so the the premiums can be a little juiced up so fxi could be an alternative if you want that chinese put exposure um without worrying about spread risk or you know overpaying on implied volatility or anything like that the pdd looking at puts i think is the obvious bearish setup um you can see a lot of other high you know high growth names uh kind of hitting local resistance and starting to sell off i mean we did have a looking at my main watch list of 220 names you see right here there was a lot of red across the board so just something to keep in mind we could see it down friday down monday pretty much carry over into monday's open so you just have to be careful you can see the dollars up a little bit and we'll get into that because there is something interesting happening in the dollar so we'll go over the five again ups we're looking at calls get that wedge break out it's pretty nice to the upside relative strength compared to the spy um and qqq on friday cvx pulling into the local support looking for calls on that make a base on that support x pulling up into 61.8 percent retracement arc also doing the same thing looking at puts on both of those uh due to the 61.8 percent retracement um rejections pdd or fxi if you want to do that one instead chinese tickers uh breaking out of the up trend line or the rising wedge whatever you want to call it and could see minor resistance down to you know 89 36 uh fxi that 58 man 200 so two calls three puts and i would say i'll have a pretty good thesis behind them technically next we're going into the spy going into the index here so you can see uh spy finally broke that 4 10 49 just shot straight up for a day or two now finding resistance at this jackson hole supply so this supply zone came from when drone pile spoke at jackson hole a bunch of fed members they go out to jackson hole wyoming the maybe they have a ski trip or something but they you know do talk economics and they do broadcast that from jackson hole and on this day paul said the word pain so many times which i think triggered a lot of algorithms uh scared a lot of wall street you know into thinking that the feds get pretty much you know go balls to the wall on tightening so this resulted in a huge sell off i think that's why we could be seeing small resistance here because i finally tested that jackson hole supply your main level of focus this week for spies obviously 4 10 49 the same thing as last week which is this resistance if you wanted to get under that resistance again um that that could be bad and it could have flushed down to demand um we want to see it making a base here for the bulls if you really wanted to be bullish um on that 4 10 49 make new support and then um be able to clear the supply to get up to 431 peak so 4 10 49 will be your main level of focus if we open up below that monday i think you have a really good case for you know day trading puts if he wants to make a base on 4 10 49 at the open and if he wants to reclaim it it gives you a really good you know day trade for calls back up to supply a short term that we are at a little inflection point here last week you did get your trigger over 4 10 49 to give you a nice trade for calls and did stop a lot of bears out even too because 4 10 49 was a huge resistance and you can see the squeeze did happen but i mean instantly we sold off not sure if that's because of the the chinese news or if it was just because of all the bad economic data we did get on friday we had like non-farm payrolls and we had uh some others as well and that made the dollar skyrocket i mean i'm talking over one percent which is just insane because we were still rallying and bouncing up which totally confused a lot of people we even had 10 year yields up and other yields as well just straight skyrocketing with the dollar a lot of people with myself included were so sketched out friday that the market was still rallying on high yield side dollar some people you know didn't even take a trade which rightfully so was a good idea because we did end up selling off you know intraday here despite the high yields in dollar market still bounced really hard eventually did form a multi-top and sold off very hard and this could be contributed to the chinese balloon situation but uh who knows it could just be you know just all supply and demand and you know people taking profits and getting out starting a hedge after a massive rally or it could be news-based and just you know straight panic but otherwise for spy like i said earlier that 41049 is in focus you want to see it staying over that or getting under that me personally i'd like to see it get under 41049 just because we are starting to get a little bit overextended to the upside maybe pulling to demand where we can buy the dip you know about down here at the four of two is four of threes or something like that so just watch that 41049 and uh especially this jackson whole supply which is obviously clear resistance at least on the short term next we're going into qqq and if you tuned in last week we were covering this downtrend line we just said qqq looked really good here more favorable than the es or the spy and the reason was because on the on the qqq and on the nasdaq futures they both had that confirmed downtrend break instead of kind of struggling at the line there was just a clear break and that's pretty much why we concluded that tech was having a way better way better week than you know just regular broad market you know tech was just absolutely exploding to the upside another thing that was helping tech you know pretty much blast off was this 29688 once it got over 29688 you could see the squeeze just started to go crazy so that 29688 was our level of focus last week we said we needed to get over that and as well the 200 EMA to get more upside it was able to do that you did have the downtrend line breakout in your favor you had the mac d in your favor so great week for bowls and hopefully you know somebody saw this and you know was able to make a little bit of money on tech so this week your levels of focus obviously still that 29688 needs to stay over that to hold the structure but then you do have this 31108 so this 31108 was a cpi day cpi reported to come out on this day and had crazy strong resistance this might have been i'm sorry this was from the day before so this is from the day before that cpi print in september leading to this gnarly gap down so we can see why this 31108 had a pretty hard struggle because you do have this large sale imbalance so you have this huge green day leading straight to a very large sale imbalance and you can see why maybe you know people are taking profit of this area because they don't want to get caught in something similar if there is another sale imbalance to the downside so for me um despite you know being an uptrend and breaking out of this line short term i feel a little bit more bearish on qqq i did buy some puts 40 days out it's a starter position i did one contract you know at 800 bucks you know something around that so i do want to see short term resistance on this if you're more of a short term trader you want to see it get under friday's low at 30454 you didn't have to mark it on your chart you'll you'll know when it gets under 30454 that and if you see it flushing with volume you know that's a good good sign to get puts maybe day trade otherwise for swing traders you you know same thing you don't have to stay under 31108 and you do want to see that move down to 29688 for a back test we'll probably do something like this come back back test make a base off that previous resistance right here that's your two levels of focus you have that 31108 and the 29688 that we had last week which is this resistance next we're going into the iwm so this is my more favorable setup for the indexes and this is purely because of this inverse head and shoulders or cup and handle pattern um we did say once i got over 18986 you got a clear shot to 193s 193s came from this supply which is also the jackson whole supply similar to spy so this is a supply from the jackson whole speech you can see why we said once i got over 18986 i had all that free space and you know settling balance to fill back up into your supply and it even broke through that so this exceeded my price target which is really nice for small mid caps i can't really be any more bullish until it gets over 202 and which is the supply so rally base drop supply zone pretty gnarly one too so we need to see it get over that otherwise you can see resistance up here if it does come up and test this you can see it you know rejection straight off naturally the iwm maybe just wait for it to get up to supply if you want to you know day trade puts or take a put swing trade because it could have a little bit more space before it does tap the supply holes if you really want to go longest just wait for it to get over that that 20250 that is your level of focus this week if you do want to catch upside make sure it gets over that 20250 you know i have a stop loss you know under 200 or something or if it does decide to go back into supply that could be your stop loss as well not really the cleanest setup this week because it did break out of the pattern already and you know it gave a nice little rally you know to where now it could lead to a little cooldown or a little bit of consolidation but otherwise for iwm if it did pull back you would obviously maybe see a you know pull back back into the resistance area would probably try to back test about there and hold up as a base so yeah personally i i don't really see a position on this one this week until it gets up into supply or wants to break over that if it gets into supply it shows clear rejection you obviously have the green light for puts it wants to get over 20250 you do have a short term breakout trade even though that would be a little bit overextended and maybe a little risky to chase up there you would get that green light you know to see some more bullish momentum if it got over that next looking at the vix this is the volatility index so last week we had this 18 level that needed to get cleared under if you wanted to see a more of a rally in the market it was able to finally get under that briefly and it did flush down very heavy into 1706 as a low which is not quite my 1634 price target i had if it got under 18 if you remember from the couple videos we've covered that 1634 comes from this little base down here and you can see why if it got under 18 there's a good chance it would just flush this free space down into that low so i mean it got close didn't quite hit it before bouncing up pretty heavily in the market finding volatility again short term now you can see that it is forming this falling wedge so to start to get into a consolidation pattern here which i mean history shows once it gets a little too consolidated eventually it will break even if it's up or down but ideally for a falling wedge obviously it's a bullish pattern so if this turns into a bullish pattern like a falling wedge that would give it you know potential breakout to the upside if you're bearish on stocks you would need to see vix get over 1895 again which is this little pivot and also just get over the 20 area which is more of like a psychological level once the vix gets over 20 people would start getting you know they start questioning things they start selling premiums get a little bit more juiced and volatility does have that chance to come back otherwise for vix you just want to see it you know continuing this consolidation pattern eventually you know it will result in some type of breakout or breakdown you can see that the vix has just been ranging um compared to 2022 to where you know you're getting very solid trends and just you know crazy up and down activity all year so this is actually pretty ideal if you're you know bullish on the market and you you know don't want to see that crazy movement all the time the vix is starting to die down a little bit and this 2022 to 2023 average close did drop pretty gnarly at one point i mean it was up in like the 27s 28s or something like that from when i was tracking it you know months ago now from last week it dropped from 2532 to 2520 and this goes all the way back to the start of 2022 which is when we started raising rates and the federal reserve started their tightening so that's why i think it's essential to track the vix for these years as well as once we get enough data we'll track it for 2023 and see what the average close is for this year as well once we get a little bit more data yeah like i said just want to see it remaining in this wedge um if you're bearish on stocks eventually you're gonna want it to break out of here with a clear you know obvious breakout and not a fake out that's just you know consolidating if you're bearish also on stocks you want to see it getting back over that 20 levels same as usual if you're bullish you do want to see it breaking down this wedge heading you know down to that 1634 as well as get under 18 flat again because it seems like this 18 area i mean it just keeps hanging out every time it gets under it a little bit it'll bounce back up so you do want to see that clear break showing that volatility is cooling down again and like i said that 1634 just comes from this little pivot down here uh from january 2022 when it did peak to its low this is about the lowest the vix has been in a good little minute which is good for bulls but at the same time you know it's doing that consolidation it's not really like capitulating down heavily you can see like the hesitancy you know the traders uh starting to price in that volatility maybe you know just by buying spx options uh buying and selling spx options and influencing that as well as well as institutions you know just buying massive amounts of spx options that's obviously going to influence how the vix is moving uh since it is purely calculated off you know complex math and spx options next we're going into the dollar this is the dx y the dollar currency index so you can see i mean the same thing still in that same base that 101 29 that we covered last week i did say we need to get under that you know to be more bullish it was not able to do that uh and that's this base comes from this right here this is the this is the base for higher load that it may be for just absolutely exploding to the upside so that's why i think it was so important you know if you want to see the dollar go higher it absolutely had to hold that but at the same time it did have that monthly close under the covid 2020 peak and as well i mean this 2017 peak as well uh it hasn't cleared over that yet so that that could be a good sign you know that the dollar will go lower but for now it's holding that base that 101 29 and it doesn't look like it's ready to break it yet um this is a pretty nice bullish you know hammer some type of reversal candle on the weekly that could give this a little hint up to at least this little 50 email 104s or if we go down to the daily it's most likely going to tap one of these moving averages either reject off that 50 or come up to this 200 right here and maybe find resistance about there you can see that there's also a strong resistance at this 105 63 uh had a pretty hard you know peak out right there and did sell off so ideally you know if you do want to see stocks go lower you do want to see that continued volatility in the currency markets see the us dollar come up to 104s 105s and you know stay over that covid 2020 peak if you are bullish on the market this is not ideal that it keeps holding this 101 29 and you can see why i've been saying that um it was not able to stay under that and once it bounced back up we got the econ data to match it uh dollar soaring because it stayed over that 101 29 base so obviously you know people going long dollar right at this area which is also a very strong support so if you are bullish on stocks you do want to see it get under that as well as stay under the covid 2020 peak because i would consider you know anything under it's maybe a little bit less elevated um and people wouldn't have as much to worry about if it's you know getting over and staying you know mid 2020 level or 2022 the 2020 levels i mean that's still considered an elevated dollar in my opinion you do want to see it getting back under that in my opinion the fed really didn't say anything too hawkish but either way they're going to keep the rates up higher for longer like they said their goal is still two percent inflation we're at six something so not even close and there's plenty of other i mean repeated things that they've said that indicate you know that they're not going to cut anytime soon they don't plan on pivoting anytime soon i don't even think they've talked about it in a meeting uh yet so according to the fed swaps the you know the fed futures people are cutting in uh people are pricing in a cut by the end of 2023 at least which i mean i think could be delusional because we don't have the data to prove that yet uh yeah inflation is coming down on a rapid pace but until we get to that two percent goal i really don't see them you know making that decision anytime soon so the question is are bullish delusional could be but at the same time you do have to consider that the market is forward looking and they're trying to price in the future i think we've just started to see maybe some of the the consequences from you know elevated rates like you know earnings contractions we haven't seen any consequences in the labor market yet which hopefully we won't but i mean history does show us that you know the labor market doesn't you know usually come down especially you know from this rapid pace of rate hikes so i guess we'll have to see maybe the soft landing narrative is still intact um maybe Jerome Powell won't even walk back what he said uh at the f1c meeting which was honestly a total failure to tame the market and you know tighten up financial conditions even more if anything financial conditions have loosened so and it didn't really seem like he gave a shit so we'll have to see make sure everybody trades safe i love you guys i'm gonna go ahead and get this edited chopped up and get it out to y'all so tune into the next one love you guys bye


Hello, Psych2Go viewers. Our guest for today's live stream is Amanda Silvera. Amanda is a singer and voice actress with over 10 years of experience and the beloved voice of Psych2Go. Amanda has been an integral part of Psych2Go for over five years and blessing us with her soothing voice and spreading the word on mental health awareness. Welcome, Amanda. Thank you for joining us today. What an amazing intro. You're so good at this. Oh my God. Well, you're amazing at what you do, girl. Bless. Thank you so much. So just for starters, can you tell us a little bit about yourself and your background? About myself. So my name is Amanda Silvera. I am one of the narrators for Psych2Go. My pronouns are she, her. This is Peter Pancakes, my dog back here. So cute. Yeah, he's a rescue. He is a little bit insane, but the best nonetheless. As far as background goes, I don't know. Where do I go? I'm first generation Canadian. My parents are Jamaican. So that's fun. I don't know. What do you want to know? Ask me questions. So just for starters, what inspired you to go into voice acting and even singing? So for singing, that was never a choice. That just started as soon as I could make noise. I was singing and it was like, it's one of my favorite forms of therapy to this day. It just makes things feel better. But voice acting and narrating was super random and unplanned and really cool because I believe in manifestation. I was always like, the vision was that I got to work with a microphone and work with my voice. Music ended up being something just for me. I mean, I still share it, but I'm not trying to be a superstar or anything. It's all just from the heart and for fun. But I still get to make a living with my voice and with my microphone doing narration. But the way it came was literally through a Craigslist post through Psych2Go in the very beginning. They were just looking for voice actors and I was like, hey, can I try? Was this in 2017? I mean, maybe. It feels like it was a million years ago. Everything before COVID though feels like a million years ago. But yeah, I think 2017 sounds about right. All right, OK. And then so I love your music covers. I think I heard them before I even was with Psych2Go. I love the singing. I wish they would bring that back. I'm not sure if it's been a while, but they haven't done the singing in a minute. I think that we could bring that back. It's kind of like a lot of the time I would just do a cover and I'd be like, hey, like, how do you feel about this? Can we share it? So I think it's kind of on me to get back into it. And I think that they'd probably be happy to share, but we'll see. That's awesome. Let's do it soon. And then what do you think of Psych2Go's legacy? What do you think the legacy is? And what is the impact you feel they've made for mental health awareness? Legacy. What a big word. I think one of the most beautiful things about having Psych2Go is that you have this way of communicating for yourself, like you can just kind of share a video when you're unable. Oops, technical difficulties, guys. Sorry about that. All right, sorry. No problem. Weird, it was a call coming in. That shouldn't happen. But yeah, it gives you the ability to communicate when you maybe can't find the words or during stressful or vulnerable moments.  This is kind of how I'm feeling. But then also the community in the chat, the validation that that brings to find other people that feel the same way as you or relate to you, you just suddenly you don't feel so much like an alien. And these videos will be there forever, so we'll always have that. And I think that that is the legacy. It's just, it's brought people together, it's made conversating about difficult things, not so. What's the word? Stigmatized. Exactly. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So it's sort of like Psych2Go is, has made it so that people are more comfortable to talk about like mental health topics, especially on YouTube and the internet. Yes, definitely. And that's huge.  And it was just kind of not a thing to talk about those deeper things. And so so many people just thought they were alone and that maybe they were broken or something was wrong with them. And it's like, so many of us are going through the same thing in our own way. And Psych2Go makes it so that we, you know, we know. Absolutely, I agree. It's like Psych2Go has brought this community together and people feel more comfortable and can like speak out. And I think it's inspired other content creators for sure. Like Psych2Go is a pioneer for sure, because they've been around since like 2014. Yeah, I've definitely seen some like, you know, similar, similar versions, but there's no replacing Psych2Go. Yeah, Psych2Go will be immortal. Your voice will be immortalized. Like, isn't that crazy? Like a hundred years from now, people are going to be listening to you. You think? I don't know. I mean, I guess, I guess. What's crazy to me is like 11 million subscribers at this point, that's like 22 million years. Like, what the heck? Like, what the heck? It's almost scary. It's like, I got to protect this thing. It's insane. Yeah, it's like gold, right? I mean, your words not mine. It is though, but I mean, I just think that is pretty amazing. I think like in the history of YouTube years from now, we're going to be like decades from now, people will be learning about Psych2Go in school. I hope. I hope, yeah, yeah. I love the way that they did it too, like with the cartoons and making sure that the voices matched up and just everything is aligned in a way that just makes it so digestible, you know? And we hit on topics that like sometimes we almost shouldn't get away with, but we do, because we do it with respect and we do it thoughtfully and with love and, you know? Yeah, and Psych2Go really is a creative team of animators, script writers, you, like the executive team behind everything. It's like amazing. It's this huge, amazing, talented team. It's, yeah. And that's the other thing that makes Psych2Go just its own thing is the team and how much everyone involved cares. And there is so much that goes on behind the scenes. You know, that's not the case for all YouTube channels. That definitely isn't the case for the majority of YouTube channels, but like this is a whole production. Yeah. Yeah. And we're always trying to bring up the best topics and we're always listening to our viewers to see what they want to do, you know, what they want to see next. So definitely. Yeah. And moving on to a similar point. So what's one of your favorite videos that you worked on? I don't know. I, I'm just like, I'm just like, I'm just like, I'm just like, when I look at my Google Drive and I just like scroll through all of the freaking voiceovers that I've done, like it's crazy, but I genuinely, I really enjoy so many of them. I guess the ones that really hit home for me are some of my favorites. You know, dealing with trauma, healing, neuroplasticity, like I'm such a nerd. I love the brain. And I think that there's so much, there's so much power in just like taking back your autonomy and really just understanding how the brain works, why it's doing what it's doing. And where, how am I here? How did I get here? Why am I saying this? Where did we start? Yeah. No, that's definitely true. It's just, it's a lot. Yeah. Oh, right. You asked me what my favorite one was. Right. There were a few where I got to like, like mess with my voice a little bit and like put effects on my voice and like play the role of Si and stuff like that. That was, those are always really fun. Just kind of outside of the box recording. Thank you, head and Drake. He just donated and he just, he just wrote a super sweet comment. I just wanted to put it on the, on the main chat. Glad I'm subscribed to your channel. I've taken your advice regarding battling depression to make me a better person. Can't recall if you've made a video about curbing a temper. I'm not sure if we have, but thank you, Hendrick. That's really sweet of you. Curbing a temper. That would be, that would be a good. That would be great. Yeah. Yeah. For sure. Thank you, Hendrick. And I'm props to you for fighting the good fight. Right. And so what's one of your, so I've asked that already. And so what topics or products would you like to see psych to go cover in the future? And that includes ask an expert advocate. You know how we have like guests on different, like doctor psychologists. Anything that you want to see in the future? I want to see us talk to Andrew Huberman for one. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. He was the first person that I saw talk about the physiological side.  And he has all of these, like these protocols and tools that you can carry with you for the rest of your life that just make things better. And it's not like just do this. It's do this because this happens and then this happens. And you know what? It just explains there. He gives you the, he gives you the information that you need in order for it to make sense and click so that you'll keep doing it. A lot of the time I think that we get tools, but do we stick to them? No. No. Yes. And so with that being said, let's move over to the audience questions. Hi guys. Okay. So let's start. So Profit asks, when are you gonna do cooking videos like videos on like recipes and food? When am I gonna? That's assuming I'm gonna. If you want to. If or when? I'm so respectful. Yeah. It's definitely gonna happen. I love cooking. That is definitely like up there with singing and all the other forms of art. It's like, it's painting with food and it's food that then goes inside of somebody, which is like, it's kind of, you know, it's beautiful. So it'll happen. It's just like, it's a big process. Making my own videos on my channel, like it's a whole thing. Which by the way are linked in the description. You can find Amanda's YouTube channel and IG. Oh, thank you. Yeah, yeah. Come to my, come with it. Come say hi. Thank you, Rae. So Rae said, thanks for doing this and not in your comfort zone, seeing the voice behind these videos provides a nice perspective as well. And he donated. So thank you, Rae. Thank you, Rae. I would love to do like a cooking with Psych2Go. That would actually be really cute if we could get like a little studio for it. Like just, you know how like we did the music, maybe having like videos of cooking just like for people to relax, de-stress. I mean, yeah, but also like food is a major, it plays a major role in mental health as well. Yes, absolutely. For doing recipes that could support, could support our brain health would actually be pretty cool. That's a really good idea. Definitely. And Skeletic asks, cause I think the viewers really just want to get to know you on a personal level. So he asked, what are your hobbies? My hobbies, cooking. I, yeah, cooking, I love nature so much. I am quite the like loner. I really, really like my alone time, especially in nature. So this time of year, spring and summer, I just like to be wherever it's green and wherever there are not too many people. No, I definitely, I love nature too. I like to write poetry about like nature. It's just amazing, you know? God's gift to the earth. Write some poetry and I'll read it. Oh, awesome. You can write it. I mean, you have a pretty cool voice too. You can do yourself. Thank you. It's not soothing though. It's a little bit like, eh, I don't know, but. That's beautiful. We all have our flavors. Right. Thank you, Wealth Building Journey for that donation. And then someone asked, Julian asked, has Amanda ever done ASMR videos? Her voice is so relaxing. This has been a request from the very beginning. ASMR videos freak me out. They're just so close. I feel like I don't want to be one of these people, but like I'm highly sensitive and it's just so much. So I've tried. I tried one time to do ASMR and the microphone wasn't on the whole time. So I was just like on camera, like up close to this microphone that wasn't on for like a long, a long time. It was, it's up. I posted it nonetheless cause it was actually pretty funny. But maybe I'll try again. I need suggestions though. Like, do I just, do I just talk? Do I, what do I do? What do you want me to do? Yeah, did it? Yeah. I think that like maybe doing like the noises, you know, like what people. Some of them, some of them are really cool though. I can see like when, you know, when you're in the mood, the mood for it. Like when the ones that are like in character, like I think I saw like a flight attendant one. It takes you away. I get it. I get the appeal. I'll try maybe. No promises. So yes, I agree though. Trying to find a few more. And then let's see. Oh, I just wanted to show this comment of Justin. Thank you for everything you saved me from suicide and helped me with so many other things. Thank you, Justin. We love you. We love you so much. Yeah. Wow. So proud of you. Someone wrote, let me see the name. Ken wrote, do you think you might write a book for mental health? I could definitely see you making one. That's a good question. Ah, I might write a book about like my life. Like it's pretty juicy. There's a lot of tea working in the industry. And you live and you learn, so maybe I could share personal experiences, but I'm not a professional. So as far as like a book on mental, I'd have to probably go educate myself like substantially before doing anything like that. But a book, I could see a book happening one day. In general. A book in general, that would be awesome. Yeah, it seems like a lot, though. I can barely read sometimes. Just focusing, you know? And then Will asked, Psycho has helped me feel better about being an introvert. How did you find your voice? I was born with it. Actually, I think that the reason why my voice might be, like might have its appeal or might be soothing, is because of being an introvert. And because I was always, I've always had a fear of, I'm working on it, and actually it's not the same as it was, but I've always had a fear of making too much noise. I've always been so conscious of everyone around me. I never wanted to disturb anyone living in an apartment. I don't want to disturb my neighbors. I've always been a very soft spoken and quiet person. And that's not always a good thing. You definitely need to stay on your ground. And make space and hold your space. But because I'm just always so conscious about other people, my voice is just, that's what it is. It's soft because I don't want to be abrasive. I don't want to hurt your ears. I don't want to hurt anybody in any way. And by the way, that's rare. Like just that softness and kindness. You don't see that a lot. Most people think they have to be like super abrasive. So it's a breath of fresh air, definitely. I always wanted that though. I always wanted to be that person. I'm surrounded by people that are like that. And I'm like, why can't I be that? But you know, I love me. I love me more and more each day. You love you too. And then non-ask and thank you for the donation, by the way. It's always nice to see you Amanda. I'm glad to see you and Mr. Peter Pancakes too. How is the tree saved going? Will you be doing any more readings of any books? Personally, I miss the stories. I'm proud of you Amanda. That's so sweet. Oh my gosh. Where do, can you read that again? Where do I start? I'll start with the questions. How is the tree you saved going? Will you be doing any more readings of any books? Personally, I miss your stories. Oh my gosh. Okay, so the tree is doing phenomenal. I went, there's this tree that was falling over a couple of years ago. And I just like, I brought everyone on the ride trying to like get it to stand up and then make sure it stayed stood up and then make sure it didn't die and it didn't die. It's sprouting now. There's like new growth. So that's amazing. Wow, I love that. Yeah, it's beautiful. And then the stories. I don't know man, I tried, I tried really hard. It's still up and available on my channel. I don't know for how long. It's so embarrassing. I tried to do like all the different characters with their own voices. Males, old ladies, also British. So they all had accents. They all have accents. You can still go and watch and listen. But I don't know how long they're gonna stay up. So do it quick. If I'm gonna do it, do I think I'll do it again? I mean, maybe if it was like a paid job. Otherwise, I don't know. I'm not great at it. Evan said you will probably not read this but thanks for everything. We read it Evan. Evan. Okay, and then let me, I think we're gonna do two more questions. So, Elijah asked could you see yourself making a film on depression and how to cope with it? Yeah, yeah, I've made quite a few already. If you come over to my channel, I do a lot of like random rambles that call them in random readings. Sometimes, so what the readings are is I'm reading like literal journal entries, just sharing them out. I'm like literally an open book. But I make like little short films just about the journey and about the ups and the downs and it's not linear. We all have our own versions of it but there are also similarities that we can all relate to. So, and I add music and stuff. I try to just make it really soothing because the world isn't. So I try to just make it a place where it is. So come check it out. I'll be making more for sure. So I just wanted to share this amazing comment by Ken. He said, my school actually put on psych to go multiple times in my classrooms. I felt so happy when they put it on. That's amazing. Wow.  I love that. That's so cool. That makes my heart like do things. We're in schools? Wow. We definitely, I pretty much, I couldn't guarantee we probably are but now we're confirmed, right? Yeah, yeah, that's perfect. Like that's where it belongs, you know? Exactly. Educational but entertaining. And so then one more question by pilot. Amanda, what MBTI personality are you? I always forget. And I've actually seen like websites or like chat threads where people discuss what my MBTI type is and yeah, so you guys know better than I do. Maybe someone in the chat can let you know but I always forget. I remember what she looks like. It's like one of the little pixie ones and she's like green. I don't know. I always forget. I don't know. Well, thank you so much, Amanda. This was amazing. We love having you on. Like people were already talking about the live stream before it even happened. Like I wanna see her. She's beautiful. I love her voice. So thank you. We appreciate you so much. Thank you. You're amazing. Thank you so much. I love you all like deeply. I hope you can hear it in all the voiceover. I try to fill them with as much love as I can. And honestly, it's important to have these types of conversations and answer audience questions because it's mental health awareness month. So we always need to do it but especially during the month of May always. Yes, indeed. So it's great that we did that as we wrapped up the month. We squeezed it in there. Right, exactly. And so thank you everyone for joining us today. It was amazing. Thank you, Amanda, for being here with us. Have a great day, everyone. Have a wonderful host. Bye. Of course, bye, everyone.


What is going on everybody Astos here welcome back to another video so in this video We're going to be doing an overall market update taking a look at the Dow Jones the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq We're going to be talking about a couple of trades that I made today on the 15th of April in 2019 as well as taking a look at some other stocks and ETFs that I'm personally watching and looking to trade here in The middle of the month and heading on to the end of the month in April of 2019 so before we do get into all of these different topics for everybody out there that finds value in these videos you enjoy the Content and find these videos helpful All I ask from you is to go down below and hit that like button It really supports me and supports the channel in general and if you're actually new to the channel I have two links down below in the description box for you one of them being the discord group chat and the other One being the Facebook group both of these are 100% free of charge and I guarantee you guys will find a ton of value in these two Communities so without further ado, let's talk about what is going on right now in the market with about 32 minutes left To the market close we can see here the SPX the S&P 500 the 500 largest publicly traded U.S. Companies is currently priced at around 29.05 down about two dollars and twenty cents down about 0.07 percent at the time that I'm recording this video the Dow Jones is down about 32 dollars down about point one two percent right now priced at 26,380 Dollars and the Nasdaq right now guys is priced at about 76 53 up a dollar and fifty cents right now up point oh two Percent so in terms of the SPX and the Nasdaq very minimal movement there And honestly you can throw in the Dow to you know very minimal movement in terms of that index as well And you know unless anything drastic happens unless anything crazy happens here in the next 30 minutes You know the market is going to close Roughly, you know pretty flat right not up a ton not down a ton But again, that is if nothing dramatic happens here And we'll see towards the end of the video if anything did happen You know through the recording of this video, but let's just hop back over here to the SPX very quickly So we can do some technical Analysis so there's not much difference from my previous breakdown here that I did on Friday and on Sunday, but for those of you guys that haven't been watching pretty much the S&P 500 here if we go to the 90-day chart We can get a better look at what's been happening You know we've ended up pushing to a high this past week at about 2910 and you can see that right here 2910 point 54 is the exact price that we ended up hitting and that was actually after we ended up gapping up on Friday you can see we really Consolidated at a new level of support roughly at about 2890, you know really fluctuating from 2880 2890 ish up to around $900 right around here for a couple of days then we gapped up on that big green day that we saw on Friday We saw Disney do absolutely phenomenal on Friday and we kind of consolidated at that level of around 2905 to about 2910 on Friday and it seems like today honestly guys we gapped down this morning Right, we saw that pretty big gap down from around 2910 all the way down to about 2896 which was a 15-point gap down in the SPX But since that did happen, you know, we've been seeing some nice recovery, right? We're popping back up looking to retest that level at around 2905 which is really just telling me We're just simply consolidating again around this level around this 15-point level from around, you know 2895 and if I just draw or really just pick out this, you know tool I have here You can see exactly what I'm talking about right from about 2895 up to around 2910 That is roughly where we're trading right now in the past two days, you know in terms of the SPX And let me just quickly clear all these different drawing sets so we can get a better understanding of how far we actually are From all-time highs. So take a look at this guys. We're looking like we're going to close It looks like the SPX wants to close above 2900 today And if we do that's going to put us right under Really a level of resistance, right? 2905 is a level of resistance because it was a previous support from back in You know the beginning towards the actually no more towards the middle to the end of september and 29 uh 2018, right? So tomorrow keep an eye. Are we going to end up popping above this level? Are we going to start heading into the 2915s the 2920 level? These are things that are going to get us closer and closer to all-time highs, right? So if we do end up closing above 2905 the next level of resistance We're going to be looking at is going to be roughly at about 2915 Which we can see from back here was a resistance towards the end of august and 2018 and if we break that level guys That's a one-stop shop to the all-time highs here at 2940. So technically right now We have about two resistances to go One being 2905 the next one being 2915 before we do test these all-time highs So for fun, let's just see how far we are roughly now on a percentage basis from the all-time highs We're roughly about 1.1 to 1.2 percent in terms of the spx from where we are now up to about 2940 Which is absolutely amazing But what I want to let you guys know is take a look at these technicals and I want you to keep an eye You know on this potential pullback, right? You know, let's say we do end up breaking 2905 and we test 2915 And we slowly see a resistance there and we slowly start to pull back that is all um Really uh based on a previous pattern, right? If we slowly start to pull back I don't want you guys to panic don't panic that the markets are throwing are going into shambles because Just take a look at this right over the past couple of weeks. You know every time we've pushed up to a high We've seen a correction. We've pushed up seen a correction. We've pushed up again We thought this was going to be the correction here, but we just pulled back very minimally and popped up again to a Higher high this past week. So now if we slowly start to pull back and maybe uh break 28 75 Just keep an eye on this 50 sma That 50 sma support here on the 184 hour chart because it's been a support Over the past couple of weeks So all i'm saying is if we do start to see some aggressive red days Potentially hypothetically here over the next couple of days weeks, whatever does end up happening, you know Just keep an eye on that 50 sma. It's been a support for the smp 500 So the dow Jones not much to say on the dow. We broke the uh 26 200 level of resistance from back in You know the beginning of november on 2018 back towards the end of february in 2019 And we broke that level of resistance a couple of weeks ago about two weeks ago towards the beginning of april We popped up to about 26 400 which was a support from back in september of 2018 Got rejected at that level. We pulled back tested the 26 100 level of support Popped up from there ended up breaking on the 26 200 level with that gap up I believe on friday that very big gap up We saw disney do well that pushed up the dow very very dramatically And now we're starting to see some more resistance at that level of resistance at around 26 400 Again, and we can see with this gap down this morning That was a confirming point that we are getting rejected by that level, right? But we are still seeing um that we're close at that point We're close and with the recovery that we've seen from the dow, right? We saw the gap down We went down to about 26 300 and with the recovery we're seeing towards the latter half of the market here We're getting closer and closer to that 26 400 level of resistance And this is what i'm going to be watching for tomorrow guys very simple very brief Are we going to break that level of resistance? Are we slowly going to start and climb to the next level? Which if we look here is going to be at around 26 700 That is what i'm looking for tomorrow in the dow or are we going to get fully rejected and maybe test 26 200 as a support these are things that could potentially happen These are a couple of hypothetical scenarios and what i'm looking for out of these resistance and support levels And that's why honestly guys, I think it's super important For everybody out there to just draw out resistances draw out supports It's really a basic thing to do and it really allows you to understand You know where a price of a stock need tf an index a future Whatever you're looking at where it could potentially be headed based off of previous You know price action right it always helps to have these lines drawn out And it really helps me to be completely honest with you guys and I just want to help you out as well So the dow looking pretty decent right now, you know not big up not big down Just simply flat pretty much flat on the day as of right now. So the nasdaq slash nq here We are holding that support. We've been talking about the new support Which we broke out of that resistance a couple of days ago at about 76 30 making it a new support We've really just been consolidating there if we can just hop to the closer term charts here We've really just been consolidating there since the 10th of April right we popped up on the 10th. We've just been doing a little horizontal Channel here if we just go to the drawing tools very quickly You know get the channel tool out. You can see what I'm talking about here If it wants to work Right, you guys can see that right you see this little and I know it's a little bit It's not completely parallel, but you guys can see right you can see It's been really hovering in between this and now what I'm going to be waiting for Are we going to pop out of this level of resistance at about 76 65? That is what we really need to see honestly for the nasdaq to be testing those all-time highs Which are coming really really close here guys. We can see we're under 100 points away in terms of the nasdaq I do think on a percentage basis. This one is the closest to hitting those all-time highs Let me just see very quickly and we'll go back to the dow right now to see how close that one is because we didn't look at it But this one's about 1% off I think the spx was around 1.1 1.2 And let's just see very quickly on the dow My guess is the dow is the furthest from all-time highs. Yup, and i'm correct on that 2.2 2.3 percent away from all-time highs from where we are right now in terms of the dow jones industrial average Back to the nasdaq guys very brief, you know, are we going to maintain this level of support? Are we going to retest the 50 sma if we do end up breaking the 76 30 level? Are we going to pop out of this horizontal channel to test all-time highs? That is what i'm going to be watching for the rest of this week Heading on for the rest of this month quite frankly an earning season for the nasdaq and really for the entire Stock market right very very important here. So let's talk about Very quickly what i ended up doing today in terms of my trading you saw in the title Yes, I had to cut losses on one of my swing positions that kind of went sour today, right? You're probably thinking was it amd? No, it actually wasn't amd. It was actually nvidia guys ticker symbol nvda and video actually tanked harder than amd Although we saw a bunch of the semi companies this morning do pretty poorly And let me just do a rundown on those very quickly, right? We saw amd drop very very drastically this morning, right? We saw am you go down down the toilet this morning We saw nvidia very very poorly went down very badly went down the toilet here Let's see qualcom. I actually didn't check qualcom, but i'm sure actually wow this one did not dump But nonetheless some of the semi companies here the chip companies that we do watch You know they did pretty poorly So I did not end up cutting losses on amd because I wasn't down too much of my position, right? Let me just give you a quick quick little rundown on this one before I do get into nvidia But on amd I was actually in if I recall at about 27 30 to about 27 40 is when I did take that position a couple of days ago I forget the exact day but for those of you guys that have been following the channel You know I did take a position about a week ago on amd and the fact that we only went down to about 26 96 I believe was the low of the day. Yeah, that's the low of the day You know, I wasn't really down much on the position, right? Let's say I was in at 27 40 I believe that's where I was, you know, I was roughly down about 1.4 You know 1.5 at that point and I do want to give it a little bit of wiggle room I don't want to cut losses, you know exactly at like 1.5 percent I didn't want to give it some room to breathe because I'm only in this one with a small portion Of my goal position, right? This is another big thing here If I was in this with a hundred percent of my position, right? I would have been a little bit more Um, you know kind of scared, right? I probably would have cut my losses because at that point I would have been down a bigger dollar value than I was today since I was only with a smaller percentage of the goal position, right? That's why I always preach on the channel You know if you're looking to swing trade don't hop in a hundred percent on a position, right? Hop in maybe 10 15 percent 20 percent, uh, you know at a time depending on you know What you're looking to trade, right? So the fact that I'm in with a smaller position here, right? That helped me, you know hold it although I was down a 1.5 percent, right? But again I'm not too worried about AMD. I'm still looking to hold this one, but we did end up breaking a technical point here, but the fact that we are reversing back up to the mid-27s here that does Give me a bit of hope for tomorrow, which is why I'm still holding and another reason why is because we are maintaining the support from a couple of days ago back in, you know, the ninth of What's it called April of 2019? We're still maintaining that support, which does give me some hope here But who knows guys if it opens up tomorrow down more, I might get burned on this one I might just sell, you know sell out of it tomorrow. We'll see what ends up happening But as of right now, I'm holding on to the shares. It's looking pretty decent as of now But on the flip side, Nvidia is actually one that I was down a little bit on, right? I got in roughly at about $190 added a bit more at about $191 or something like that And we saw the big drop off today, right? I was in roughly at about $191, let's say average cost And I woke up after I didn't wake up after the market. I mean I woke up to it down pre-market Is what I'm saying and if we just go to the one day one minute, you know, we opened up It was decently trending down pre-market and then we saw the cliff dive Literally within an hour into the market, the shares were down about $7 About $8 from where I ended up buying and if we see from about $191 Down to where we ended up getting to the lowest point today, which was $183 My shares were down 4% so I didn't take a 4% loss on this position I ended up taking roughly, I believe, a 3%, a 2.8% loss As I started to see this one was really not looking to recover this morning It was falling, it was really just a falling knife, right? Lower lows, very aggressive selling here, very, very aggressive selling So I just figured I'd cut my losses here, get my cash back And I'm going to reevaluate this position here over the next couple of, you know, trading days Maybe I hop back in, maybe I'll just stick my cash somewhere else And most likely guys at this point until we see some recovery in Nvidia I'm probably just going to, you know, stick it somewhere else But let's just see what happens here over the next couple of days But yes, I did take a loss on Nvidia That is why you saw that in the title of today's video So what did I do in terms of my day trading? Well, I traded TVIX today for a pretty small scalp trade this morning As the markets did end up aggressively selling off So we saw this morning, right? The markets gapped up a little bit, right? They gapped up to about $29.10 Which actually happens to be the resistance that we touched this past Friday And then we aggressively sold off all the way to about $28.96 Within the first hour and 15 minutes of the market being open, right? And for those of you guys that don't know, TVIX is an ETF that I trade A bunch of the people in our group trade this Whenever the market is really red, right? When the market is red, typically the SPX is what this tracks The SPX is falling down Well, TVIX is going up in price, right? We opened up at about $20.50 We spiked up all the way to about $22.06 And that was actually about an 8% move, believe it or not Close, actually no, it was a 7% move in TVIX Which is pretty big, right? And take a look at this quick move here, guys If you were able to catch this, let me know in the comments Honestly, I was out at this point already But this move from $2105 to $22 Let's see how quick that was That was literally from $1024 to $1045 That was a 20-minute move there It moved close to 5% That's absolutely unbelievable But I actually got into TVIX on this second pump here, right? We popped up to $20.84 I realized the SPX was selling off pretty aggressively at this point We got the pullback The SPX made a lower high This one made a higher low Because again, it's really the inverse of the SPX And then we started to pop up aggressively And I got in roughly at about $20 And $60, $20.67 I wrote it up past this point here at $2105 We pulled back, got a higher low again And we started to bounce up here And once we broke this previous resistance at about $21 In terms of the candlesticks here I ended up selling off for about a 2.1% profit, right? So I got in here I held through this little pullback, right? We made the higher low at that point The SPX was continuing its push down It made a lower high, right? And let me just pull the SPX here very quickly So you guys can see it, you know, side by side, right? This is actually very helpful for you I'm pretty sure, right? So let's just hop to the one day, one minute And you can see what I'm saying, right? And like I said, right? The TVIX popped down higher low here While the SPX was making a lower high, right? Lower high, lower high, lower high And that is where really, you know, the TVIX ETF was popping up As this one was making lower highs, right? You guys kind of see how this moves And it's really just an inverse, right? Look at this It's like, you know, an upwards push, downwards push This one's a downwards push, upwards push, right? You see how it's pretty much just an inverse And that's just how this trades So TVIX guys, that's what I ended up doing In terms of that day trade And that's really just the trading update for today, right? So since then, you know, TVIX has been falling down Back down to about $20.50 Nothing too crazy in terms of that But it is seeming like it wants to close red So what am I watching for tomorrow, guys? There's a couple of ETFs and stocks that I am watching One of them being Facebook We talked about this one this morning And this one's honestly breaking into the 180 level Right now it briefly did break into the 180 level I believe a couple of minutes ago before I recorded this video Yup, 180.50, we pulled back And now it's looking like we want to end the day off On a higher low from the previous Which is a very good sign And what I was saying this morning Is Facebook is looking to break this 180 level of resistance And maintain it as a new support Quite frankly, it seems like it's already doing that, right? If I just extend this a little bit We can see exactly what I'm talking about, right? We already broke the level of resistance And now it's looking like it's holding it as a new support So the goal here is to get into Facebook And trade it up to 185 Which is the next resistance level that we're seeing So Facebook ticker symbol FB That's probably the number one one I'm watching For tomorrow, you know, gold Let's just take a look at gold very quickly Because we've been seeing a lot of interesting moves In gold today And if we just hop to the 20 day one hour chart We can see how aggressively gold has been selling off So gold's been selling off aggressively It's looking like it's getting rejected here By the 50 simple moving average resistance We're seeing a bearish cross here So this does, excuse me This does signal more bearish downside for gold Based on the technicals that I'm seeing here So for the next couple of days I might be watching, you know, JDST Which is an ETF that goes up whenever gold is selling off But let's say, you know, gold miraculously reverses Right, I was actually looking at Jnug's chart And Jnug's actually at an interesting spot right now Let me show you guys what I'm talking about So we're actually at a level of support Roughly at about nine dollars, right Where we've been reversing Or we've reversed rather on two separate occasions Right, the past couple of times was Back in the beginning of March We reversed from nine dollars up to about 1150 We pulled back recently We reversed back up to about 1050 from nine dollars And now it seems like we're not really maintaining it quite yet Like we did here as a new support But we are at that level So let's say gold slowly reverses tomorrow Maybe back up to the 1395 level Maybe or 1295 rather Maybe back up to 1300 You know, Jnug could be a decent play But I personally think, you know Since we are seeing a bearish cross there on gold We might see Jnug fall to the next level of support Which in this case is roughly at about 840 Right, at this level And if we do get to 840 on Jnug Which there's a decent possibility in my eyes You know, at that point That's going to be a very attractive price in my eyes For Jnug, especially because gold would be extremely oversold at that point And we'd see probably a reversal in gold Just to see, you know, some push You know, just to see a little push back up Right, because typically whenever gold Or any ETF stock index or future in that matter Whenever they get Whenever one of these get hit very hard, right Whenever they're selling off for a couple of days There's always about a day or two or three days in a row Where we do see some recovery And that in terms of gold could happen Where we could, you know, potentially play Jnug So I'm watching these very closely here Over the next couple of days We're seeing crude oil make an interesting move here Where it's slowly holding a level of support here From back in the beginning More towards, you know, the 8th I think, yeah, the 8th of April in 2019 At about $63.50-ish right around here So if we do hold that maybe pop up You know, this could be a good entry on UWT guys Because crude oil on a broader perspective here It's still on an uptrend pattern, right The pattern has not broken quite yet, right And honestly, I want to see a break out of this Little, you know, what can you call this here This downwards trending channel, right Where it's looking like we're maintaining this, right You guys can kind of see it If we break out of this level Maybe back into the 64 range That could be a pretty bullish move there on crude oil Which in turn would be a great move You know, great opportunity rather on UWT So we also saw a huge move today in D gas I think it was up like 8% at one point Because natural gas has just been aggressively selling off here So since it's aggressively selling off It's very oversold right now We could start to see maybe a little push back up Towards that 50 SMA resistance, right And if that does end up happening If we do say maybe get back to, you know, 265 That's going to open up a decent opportunity on U gas Which is actually the inverse to D gas, right So U gas goes up whenever natural gas is going up So keep an eye on this one for potential recovery play tomorrow So Tesla is another one guys That pretty much got hammered this morning, right I think Elon Musk sent a tweet out or something I don't really know what he said I actually didn't even look into it to be completely honest with you guys But I saw it in the chat And the stock looks like it went from 267 down to about 258 This morning and we're seeing a bit of recovery here Heading into the market close So tomorrow keep an eye on Tesla guys Keep an eye on the potential break back into the 270s Are we going to break this 50 simple moving average here On the 20 day one hour chart These are some things that I'm watching heading into tomorrow So let's hop back over here to the indexes very quickly To see if we change before I do end up ending off this video So the Dow pretty much exactly where it is When we started the video, right Down about 35 points, down about 0.13% The NASDAQ down about $3.75 here Down about 0.04% And the SPX down about $3 down 0.1% Nothing crazy here So it does look like in about five minutes here We are going to close off today Really on a flat note, right So I'm going to end off the video there guys If you enjoyed this video Feel free to drop a like Leave a comment down below Let me know what you thought about it Let me know what you guys are trading And subscribe to the channel if you're new Right, if you like the content And you want to see the daily videos that I do make Just hit that subscribe button Hit that notification bell So you're notified every time that I do make a video And if you want to be connected with me On a further basis I have two Instagram accounts down below My personal Instagram and the StriveSmart Instagram as well And there's two links as well to the Discord And the Facebook group Both of those are 100% free And you can join those to talk to the 600 Plus members that we do have in there And I really look forward talking to you guys in there If you do end up joining So I'll catch you all in the next video I hope you all did great today Have a good one guys Peace out