This document is very important because it highlights or enlightens people in different countries to know the bedside of counterfeited goods and their effects. As long as no country in the world is out of the effects of counterfeiting, for that matter, I underline that this book is very crucial.


The data-sharing aspect has clearly been critically important, and it established a framework for data-sharing that extends until this very day. And I think the other legacy piece has really been a culture of innovation and technology development. So, you know, genome science is still with us, and it continues to depend on innovation and infrastructure. And so that's been a legacy that very few other fields in my experience can claim as their own.


Welcome to All Hands Update, I'm Petty Officer Andrew Johnson with your headlines from around the fleet. The government has partially shut down. For military members who may be worried about whether or not they will get paid, President Obama signed HR 3210, the Pay Our Military Act, into law September 30th. This ensures all active duty service members will be paid through the shutdown. Also, some services, including Navy exchanges and lodges, overseas commissaries, medical and dental emergency services, and mission essential support services will remain open. Last night, President Obama addressed military members and civilians regarding the shutdown. You can see his speech and its entirety at Navy.mil. We'll continue to bring you updates throughout the shutdown as they become available. From All Hands Update, thanks for watching.


Hi, I'm Zor. Welcome to Unizor education. I would like to start a new topic, mathematical statistics. It's presented on website Unizor.com. That's where I suggest you to watch this lecture from because there are very important notes for every lecture which is presented on this website. So it's basically a course. It's a course of advanced mathematics for teenagers, primarily high school, and well this is just a new topic which I would like to initiate. First of all, there is absolutely mandatory to study theory of probabilities as it is presented on this website, Unizor.com, before you attempt to listen to these lectures. It's mandatory because I mean everything, whatever mathematical statistic does, it's based on theory of probabilities. And there is very important connection between these two subjects. In some way, they are inverse to each other. Let's just think about it. What theory of probabilities actually tries to accomplish? Well, it deals with certain random variables. For instance, we have a random variable and we know everything about this random variable. We know it's probabilistic characteristics. We know it's distribution of probabilities, whatever you want to say about it. So we know the behavior of this variable. Now, based on this behavior, sorry, based on this knowledge, based on these characteristics and probability distributions, etc., we can actually say something about the values of this particular variable as experiments with this variable go through. So, for instance, if our random variable is the result of rolling the dice, and we definitely know that the probability of any number from 1 to 6 on a dice is equal to 1, 6, then we can say with relative certainty that if we perform, let's say, 1,000 rolls of a dice and we are interested in number 1, well, we can say that approximately 1,6 of 1,000 times, which is what? Like 1,6,7 or something like this, we will probably get number 1 close to this number. Not exactly this number, but close to this number. And we can even evaluate how close we can say that with certain probability, like 95%, for instance, the number 1 will appear, let's say, from 150 to 180 times or something like this. So, again, knowing the probability, theory of probabilities gives us tools to evaluate the results of the experiment. Now, the mathematical statistics is in somewhat inverse, as I said. We do know the results of the experiments in the past and based on these results, based on the values which we have obtained, we can make some kind of a judgment about probabilistic characteristics of our random variable, which we do not know in advance. So, again, theory of probability is from the distribution of probabilities, we predict certain values which it can take within certain boundaries with certain probabilities. Mathematical statistics goes from data to the probabilistic distribution and probabilistic characteristics of our random variable. So, in this way, they are inverse to each other. What actually constitutes a complete theory is the following. Again, considering we do not know our priori in advance the characteristic of this variable, so what we do, we do a certain number of experiments which result in certain judgment about characteristics, probabilistic characteristics of our variable. So, this is the mathematical statistics and then based on this information which we have obtained about our random variable, we make a judgment about future results. So, this is past and this is future and this is zero probabilities. So, that's a complete picture as I would like to present it to you. So, you will always have in mind what's the purpose of this and what's the purpose of that. So, again, the mathematical statistics serves to define in certain, well, with certain precision to define the probabilistic qualities, characteristics of random variable based on certain data which we have obtained from the past experiment and then based on this we can predict the future. So, theory of probability predicts the future, but the basis of this is the probability distribution which we, if we don't have it, we need to somehow obtain derive from the results and that's what the role of mathematical statistics actually is. All right. So, this is some kind of an I don't know, introduction to what exactly we will be dealing with. Now, based on this, now for instance, we don't know that one-sixth is the probability of number one if we roll the dice. What do we do? Well, we roll the dice one thousand times, right? And let's say one hundred and sixty times we have one. What can we say based on these observations? Well, we can say that approximately one sixty over one thousand which is zero point sixteen is the probability of having number one. We cannot make any judgment about any other unless we do know some results of any other like probability of number two, probability of number three, etc. But that's what we can see. So, if our experiment shows that out from a thousand rows we have one hundred and sixty times rolled number one, then we can say, okay, the probability of our random variable equal to one approximately is equal to zero point sixteen. Absolutely not exactly because experiment is definitely not completely conclusive, but it gives us a certain point of judgment. And then we can say that for the future, maybe we will make another one thousand experiments in the future, we might expect the number of times when we have rolled one be more or less around number one hundred and sixty. That's a judgment for the future. That's how statistics and theory of probabilities are working hand in hand starting from the data in the past to certain judgment about probabilistic characteristics and to predicting the data for the future. All right, next. Now, why actually can we say that if we have out of a thousand times, we have one hundred and sixty times number one rolled, then we can say that probability maybe is around zero point sixteen. Well, this is all based on the law of large numbers. So, if you will go back to the theory of probabilities and study the law of large numbers, you will understand that that might be a good foundation for this. So, that's basically where we are. That's the main apparatus, the main foundation for the mathematical statistics, which is at the heart of it. Well, obviously, there is another very important theorem, the central limit theorem. And that will also be very important in our predictions in the future. Okay. Now, let me say the following. Unfortunately, many people are abusing mathematical statistics. There are even some saying about this.  Well, this abuse is basically nothing more than just using something in a completely unintended way. And instead of approaching with a good theoretical foundation, we approach something in a completely un-theoretical, completely spontaneous and, well, let me tell you, wrong way. Example. I mean, for instance, some agencies would like to predict the results of elections in the United States. Now, there are two major parties, Republicans and Democrats. So, one agency pulled 100 people and found that there are 60 goals for Republicans and 40 goals for Democrats. And that agency said, you know what, based on my information, I predict that Republicans will win. Now, another agency, or maybe the same agency in some next day or something like this, also asked 100 people and they had slightly different picture. They have 40 Republicans and 60 for Democrats and they say, okay, we predict that Democrats will win. Now, they cannot be both, right? So, somebody is wrong, which probably means that nobody is actually right. Both of these statements, like prediction of this win or that win, they're absolutely wrong. There cannot be a statement like that. What might be a statement is that with certain probability, the Republicans or Democrats will win. And that is usually completely missed in many cases. Also, what's important is this number. This number is supposed to be significant and we will talk about why. The greater this number, the more precise our evaluation is. And there are many other factors which are participating in this thing. You will see that the best results can be get if we want to evaluate the random variable, which is basically the experiment with which can be repeated again and again without any modifications. Now, in this case, 100 people, that's 100 different people, which probably supposed to represent a much larger number, but how well it represents, nobody really knows. So it's all very much unscientific. It's very much basically kind of analysis which maybe pursues some political purpose or something like this. And it's far from being mathematically correct. What I would like to talk about is what is the theoretical foundation of mathematical statistics to avoid confuses like this. And let me start with one simple example. Let's consider you have one random variable and you have only one experiment of this random variable which gives the result X. Now, what can you say about this particular random variable? Quite frankly, nothing much. If you have only one result, probably the best you can say is that the mathematical expectation of X of C is somewhere around X. So you're evaluating you're evaluating the mathematical expectation of your random variable using one particular one particular result. Now, how good is this? Well, not very good, obviously. Can you improve it? And here is the very important part of it. Excuse this noise, somebody is just doing something. All right, so how can we improve the result of the variation of the mathematical expectation of random variable C with one and only one value X? Here is what we can do. Let's consider that we can repeat this experiment of basically checking the value of random variable X of C n times. And we have values X1, X2, etc., Xn as a result of this. Now, the typical way people are approaching this problem is, okay, let's just have an average of these n results of experiment. And that would be our evaluation of the mathematical expectation of X. Is it good or bad? Well, it's very easy to mathematically analyze. And here is how I would like to do it. Let's consider a new variable. Now, C is our random variable. So let's assume that we have n different random variables which are independent from each other. Again, the word independent is assumed in a probabilistic sense. And you have to really go back to the theory of probabilities if you forgot about this. So independent variables which have exactly the same distribution as C. Now, what is this particular new random variable? Well, let's analyze it. Now, obviously, if I will take m equals to X1 plus, etc., plus Xn divided by n, where X are these now, these results of the experiment of C, I will have a one single value of variable eta. Now, can I do exactly the same as before? If I have a single value for variable, random variable C, I'm saying that, okay, X is probably as much as we can do to evaluate the mathematical expectation of C. But let's talk about this in this particular way. Now, the mathematical expectation of eta is equal to, well, again, from theory of probabilities, you know that the factor can be moved out of the expectation. And expectation of sum is sum of expectations. So it would be expectation of C1 plus, etc., plus expectation of Xn. Now, what is this? Now, we are saying that these variables all have the same distribution as C, which means they all have the same expectation as expectation of C. So this is equal to 1n. And then I have expectation of C, 1, 2, 3, 4, n times, right? Which is expectation of C. So all I have proven right now is the expectation of this average is exactly the same as expectation of my initial random variable C, which is good, which means that this can serve as an expectation, as an evaluation of expectation of eta. And since expectation of eta and expectation of C are the same, so this is also a good evaluation of expectation of C. Now, that's okay, but what about the quality of this expectation? Now, let's think about what is the quality of expectation of any random variable if you have only one particular value of this random variable. Now, random variable has certain distribution of probabilities. Now, these distribution of probabilities can be different and they might be arranged in such a way that our values are very, very close to the mathematical expectation of the random variable. Now, it can be something like, let's talk about, for instance, a normal random variable, which has a distribution, something like this. And this would be the mathematical expectation. Now, you can have this type of a distribution. Now, you also can have this type of distribution, which means values are much further distributed with relatively large probabilities. Or you can have this type of a distribution where values are much narrower. Now, the measure of this span around the mathematical expectation is usually the variance, right? The smaller the variance, the closer values are to the mathematical expectation. And, therefore, if we can reduce the variance, that would improve the quality of our evaluation. Now, let's talk about variance now. We were talking about a random variable eta, which is C1 plus, etc. plus Cn divided by n. What is its variance? Now, variance of, first of all, factor can be moved out of the variance in square. And again, if you don't remember, go back to the theory of probability, part of this course, so it will be 1 over n square. Now, variance of independent, now the independence is very important, variance of independent, where the sum of independent random variables is sum of their variables, right? Variances. So, I will have n variances of each one of them, which is the same as C, which is one n of variance of C. So, what happens with our result like this? What we have is, we have a variable eta, which has exactly the same mathematical expectation as C, but its variance is n times smaller. And, therefore, standard deviation is 1 divided by square root of n smaller, right? So, if my standard deviation is smaller, that means my single value evaluation and my single value evaluation of eta is x1 plus x2 plus, etc. plus xn divided by n. That's my results of my experiment. So, my n results of the experiments, I have basically converted into a single result of a different variable, which is basically, I'm just talking about the same, the same thing in different ways. So, yes, you can consider x1, etc. xn as n different results of experiment of n experiments with one variable, C. Or, you can consider as one single experiment, result of experiment, with variable eta. Okay. So, basically, what we have done, we have significantly reduced the variance and standard deviation of our initial variable, and therefore, we can increase the quality of our evaluation of the mathematical expectation of C with increasing number of experiments. That's what's very important. And that's what actually is all about in mathematical statistics. It replaces the quality with quantity. And in this particular case, the result is that the quality is growing as the quantity is growing. So, the more experiments we have provided for this particular variable, and the more the greater number n, obviously, is in this particular case, therefore, what we can say is that evaluation of our mathematical expectation with this number is greater. So, that's the foundation for providing more and more experiments. But, however, what's very important is that all these individual random variables should have exactly the same distribution as C, and they should all be completely independent from each other. Otherwise, these mathematics would not work. So, if you can roll the dice in such a way that every roll is completely independent from another roll, and you roll it, and you roll exactly the same dice within exactly the same environment, and nothing actually affects your experiments, like you don't really change the table where you're rolling, you don't shake it or whatever else, in this particular case, the greater number of experiments you are making, the more precision you can have in your evaluation of every result of every number of this, like mathematical expectation or some other probability, whatever you're analyzing. In this case, it's analysis of mathematical expectation, but at the same time, you can analyze any characteristic of a random variable. So, that's basically everything which I wanted to say in this introductory lecture about mathematical statistics. It's basically the purpose and the tools. The purpose is, as I was saying, kind of an opposite to probability, to theory of probability. So, not from probability to future data results, but from the past data results to probability. That's what mathematical statistic does. And the second thing is, what's very important is, all these conditions, we have to provide as much data as possible. That's the quantity, that's this n, and the conditions of the experiment should be exactly the same. Then we can really approach this mathematically correct. If conditions are changed or something else is changing, then it's not working that well.  All right. So, I do suggest you, if you didn't do it before, look seriously at theory probabilities if you don't remember exactly this particular part of the course. And then, obviously, we can go into theoretical and practical aspects of mathematical statistics. Well, thanks very much and good luck.


The Eurozone and the European Union is I guess at this point the most stagnant part of the global economy You are headed back into recession you're gonna have your your in negative growth country again This is astounding seven years into the greatest economic recession in five generations and Europe isn't coming out. It's about to dip back in I think it's the result of absolutely disastrous Economic policies that have been pursued. It's fiscal austerity doesn't work When you're in recession you need expansionary government spending And Instead just the opposite has been the reaction from my point of view. It's sort of a an Incredible mindless failure to remember the fundamental lessons of Keynesian economics that we learned five generations ago So it's sort of incompetent economic policy that is terribly counterproductive that's solving the problem and the problem is the recession problem is Getting Europe to grow again. I Trying to sort of provoke people to really think seriously about what's going on by saying, you know, we used to call Europe You know Europe's part of the advanced. It's an advanced economy. You're the advanced economies Well, maybe you're gonna be the formerly advanced economies it doesn't take too many years of Growing at 1% or not at all or even negative 1% While other regions of the global economy are clipping along at 4 or 5 percent which some regions have been Doesn't take too many years of that before advanced becomes formerly advanced So I stand in amazement, you know that this is the process that's going on The other thing that's happened is that this this crisis was triggered by you know Terrible financial crisis the recession came as a result was triggered by The worst financial crisis in five generations and that financial crisis did break in the United States. It broke in Wall Street and it was in turn triggered by the bursting of the US housing bubble But one of the dangerous things that had happened in the global financial industry was the connections between The European fight European finance was so tightly connected to to us finance a Lot of the banks it wasn't just us banks that were holding these mortgaged based securities That turned out to be you know of practically no value overnight European banks and major financial investors had purchased a lot of these things too So you were also quickly affected by a financial crash the the three the three big banks in Ireland good example the Iceland banks, but In any case Both in the United States and in Europe there really has been no real successful financial reform so that the the financial sector here in Europe as in the United States is Really an even bigger accident waiting to happen than it was in 2007 that doesn't mean it's you're gonna have a financial crisis in 12 months or maybe not 18 months. It just means the situation is just as dangerous. It was before because nothing's been done in in this regard my understanding is that Some countries have been more willing to start to make some moves in that direction In this case Germany actually won and other countries have been completely unwilling You know to even think about such things and the UK would be sort of the principal obstacle in this case the Obviously the principal sort of movers the the country within the Europeans within the EU that has insisted on the austerity and keeps insisting on the The strict appliance of the rules of unification that limited deficits that country governments could run is Germany They're the ones that are holding to this despite all evidence that even in very narrow Even in its old even even in the very narrow sense of its own goals, which is to reduce the indebtedness of Country governments like Greece and Portugal and Spain and Ireland. In fact, it's the evidence is overwhelming It's had seven years of very high rates of unemployment as a result of these spending cuts You now have societies that are literally being torn apart of the seams I mean political rifts You know that are incredibly dangerous including the rise of you know of Nazi and conservative movements that that should be frightening to you know to anybody that was hoping that what this was going to be was a More peaceful and cooperative Europe So that's been the price you've paid for the austerity and what was supposed to be the payoff What was the game? What was the whole purpose of it to reduce the indebtedness of these country governments and yet? every single one of these so-called pigs in southern Europe the debt public debt To GDP ratio, which is the reasonable way to measure sort of how indebted is a country How how big is a public debt? I mean you got to compare it to the size of the economy? That's what you're doing. Well the the debt to GDP ratio for every one of these southern European economies is over double in 2014 was what it was in 2007 So what have you gotten for this? Program that has been the dominant program continues to be the dominant program and that is principally pushed by By Germany more than any other particular government or delegation within the Union You actually have created greater indebtedness problems as Keynesian economics would have predicted and has predicted and does predict and yet Policy continues to this day So that's the problem as I see it in the eurozone And I think there are solutions and that there are economists and people who have good ideas about the what those solutions are But nowhere are they being implemented? There is no government in power in Europe seven years in That is doing the things that are necessary to solve these problems. And I mean that that's a stark contrast to the Great Depression Seven years into the Great Depression We were five years into the New Deal in the United States and similar things were going on in European economies at the same time Seven years into this great recession Which now is dipping again in Europe? We we are we there isn't a single Government in power any place in Europe that is pursuing any of the policies that would actually improve matters Every single government is continuing to pursue policies. That's just aggravating the problems


Well that pretty much is the big picture of the Bash. We did three schools yesterday and here we are today. We've got another four schools on the schedule. It was absolutely stunning day yesterday down in the Nelson area and we're heading today down to Greymouth and we do have a bit of precipitation in the sky. It's a bit wet but that is never worried of Bash at Christchurch Airport today as a completely new crew. So between you and me, that is a complete whole team of virgins. We've got six on the first team and six on the second team so we can get as many people through as possible. I'm guessing that's what's called an initiation, is it? Many people through as possible, experience the Bash, give it to the children, have some fun, make some likely characters but it's a great fun.


There's a reason why Xtrades is currently the fastest growing application on the market for sharing financial ideas. With over $2.5 million paid in the last two years to contributors, users are flocking to see what trades the top traders on the leaderboard are sharing in real time. If you're looking to grow your reputation as a trader on the internet, or discuss your trading ideas with other reputable investors, click the link below and get connected with a trading mentor today, completely free of charge. All right, what's up everybody? This is Alex from Xtrades and welcome back to another weekly trade ideas list. I hope everybody had a wonderful weekend, an extended weekend. We did have today off. It is now Monday, February 19th. So we did have an extended weekend. We will have a shortened week this week trading and almost a lack of data as well. There's a couple good data sets coming up this week. But otherwise, we did just end on Friday the 16th, a big options expiration over $2.4 trillion worth of money freeing up. So just off that fact, that could bring a little bit of market volatility in terms of rebalancing and seeing a lot of taking profit, a lot of buying, lots of volatility. It really just depends. Maybe the lack of data won't bring that volatility. But usually the week after a big options expiration like that, you can expect some pretty wild swings. I guess it just depends. And past performance is not always an indication of future performance as well. Or history doesn't always have to repeat itself, but many times it does. So for a data this week, Wednesday, February the 21st, probably going to be the most important day of the week. It's going to be the five minutes from the January meeting. Lots of times there's really not any new info from these minutes. It's really just repeating the same things that we heard during the press conference. But sometimes you will see algorithms pick up on things that maybe it didn't pick up on last time and the market will try to price that in instantly depending on the language spoken inside the minutes. So sometimes the market can see something different in black and white that they missed the last meeting. And that can sometimes cause a knee-jerk reaction either to the upside or downside. No one really knows. It just depends. And not every single minute that drops moves the market that much. But it's definitely something you want to pay attention to. Anything involving the Fed or an FOMC meeting always worth paying attention to. That's at 2 p.m. And then on Thursday, this is probably the second most important. It's going to be the services PMI and also manufacturing PMI. Definitely going to want to pay attention to this at 9.45. We also have existing home sales at 10 a.m. And a couple Fed speakers. We've got Jefferson, Harker, Lisa Cook, Kashkari and Waller. All speaking on Thursday, February the 22nd. And then Friday, nothing scheduled. So a summary is going to be the Fed minutes on Wednesday. And then on Thursday, you just want to pay attention to PMIs at 9.45. Maybe pay attention to the Fed speakers throughout the rest of the day as well. And that's about it. And on to the seasonality for this week. We do have February 19th to the 23rd today to next Friday. You can see it's actually pretty negative in terms of the seasonality. Very negative all the way into the midpoint of the month in March. This is actually probably the worst part of the best six months in the stock market. This last half of February into early March. Historically speaking, of course, it doesn't always have to do that. But usually it is pretty weak. And especially for all the years that I've been trading, you know, since 2018 at least, I've remembered February being a very bad month. Minus a select few where volatility might not have been as high, but still overall, we do see a pretty good decline in February into March as well. And then overall, it's kind of when you see the market catch a bid, you know, towards the midpoint of the month, as you see right here. This is actually pretty accurate in terms of recent years, especially like the last 10 years. The market's definitely been very weak this last half of February. And a lot of people start to take profit. You'll start seeing some shorts open. And sometimes you'll just see bad news overall. And if we go down to the last 15 years, it's very similar. Basically, this pattern is almost the same in everything. Whether you look at 10, 15, 20, 30 years, it's all very similar. This last half of February is very negative historically. So this is 15 years. It's very similar. So you can see for this recent 10 year data set, it's actually a little bit different. It's got a leg down into late March and the other years, not so much. You can kind of see it bottoms out the midpoint on the 15 years, bottoms out right here. And on the 20 year, it bottoms out about the same spot as well. But for the 10 year that we're just looking at, it looks like the selling doesn't end all the way until almost the end of the month at the 23rd here. And that's just all the last 10 years combined. So obviously with data like this, you want to maybe have a little bit more in your favor. So more years is better, in my opinion. It gives a better picture. But you definitely want to consider recent years as well, because it's recent market conditions. So this 20 year data set goes all the way back to 2004. And that 10 year we just looked at only goes back down to 2014. So that's for the seasonality, relatively bearish historically. Definitely want to pay attention to that. But I would definitely be cautious this half of the month down into March. All right, not to the individual tickers. We got three this week that I'm looking at. We have one short that I'm looking at Microsoft here. And then two potential longs to the upside. They're a little bit more discounted than most of the market. And we'll get into those next. But right now we're looking at Microsoft. It's pretty clear it's a bearish rising wedge. You got to test one, you got to test two, you got to test three here. Also a test one, a test two, test three on the bottom as well. So this is a confirmed break of a trend. You got three tests validated on each end. Now broken on the outside, you can see the first day. It really didn't have much continuation the day after it actually had a balance of sorts before having a couple red candles kind of staying in a range. Now, likely it will need to break under this previous session low. It's going to be at four or three thirty nine. This is the previous weekly low, actually, not previous session. I apologize. So this is the previous weekly low. It will need to break under four or three thirty nine. Four or three thirty nine then takes you down to three ninety seven twenties or so right here at this low. This is a pretty big inflection point to let to a rally. So you will need to watch this and it will need to break under this in order to really flush and a three ninety seven break takes you down to three eighty four, which is this little back test area right here. You see it held up right here, broke out, etc. So you got four or three thirty nine, three ninety sevens and three eighty fours. Those are your kind of big levels you want to watch, I would say. And it will need to break under that four or three overall for short term. If you want to see a short term flush, that four or three is a pretty big level and needs to get under to get to the three ninety sevens. So I'm going to be looking at puts this week on this one. If we look at the movie gauges, you can see this nine and twenty one combo. It's it tried to bounce last week a little bit off the twenty one trying to poke under it just a little bit right now, but no confirmation of it breaking just yet. It will probably take, you know, one more close or so to confirm a break of the one day twenty one EMA. You do have the Mac D going negative here as well. It's one side of momentum slowing. Obviously it slowed down up here as well, but that was a fake out because it made a new high, even after this negative cross right here. So Mac D is not always accurate. But you can kind of see, I mean, just off of this, it's like a shoulder.  It looks like it's just slowing down, which makes sense because the seasonality is pretty weak coming up. The options finally expired on Friday, a big expiration. And as well as the market is just very overextended. You got semi conductors up just way, way high as well as overall QQQ. The whole index for tack is just very overblown to the upside with minimal pullback really on anything. We did have a pullback last week after CPI, but it recovered very quickly. So there are some signs of momentum slowing on some of the mega caps. Definitely pay attention to that. Seasonality is in your favor on that end and just be careful, you know, going long or really with anything right now. Obviously markets are in an extreme, I would say, you know, extremely overbought to the upside as well as lacking volatility. And there's still a lot of room to draw down as well. So you got to be careful on that. If you go long up here as well, you don't want to get rug pulled because you're some both ends. Microsoft looking at puts needs to break under this one to 21 EMA needs to break under four threes as well, get under 397 eventually. Overall, obviously, you can take it one level at a time. Wait for it to get to 397. See how it reacts to that. Then you can try to shoot lower, maybe shoot for the 50 EMA right here. Take it one level, one movie coverage at a time. All right, next, we're going into eBay. So this is actually a stock I like to the upside. Overall, it's kind of discounted. It's been in an accumulation phase for two years, almost. It's literally in the same spot it was in 2022 as it is right now. So it's been in accumulation and really hasn't gone anywhere. You haven't really seen a major break to the upside. You haven't seen a major break to the downside. Loads are holding, but also these mid-range highs are also holding. You haven't seen a breakout over that. You seem to just stay in between. Well, with moves like these, you can definitely see something come out of that, right? You can kind of see this, all this energy being built up into positions, maybe institutions or big money traders are kind of accumulating this. And eventually they are going to want to push it up somehow after they've accumulated such a large amount. I'm not exactly sure about institutional ownership or really any positions on this. But usually when you see a pattern like this, it's because people are accumulating and you're not seeing enough excitement really to make it go higher. And as well as not enough fear to see it go lower. And that's a great time to kind of look for discounts, maybe look to scoop something up for the long term as it's farting around at lows, not really doing anything. There is kind of some value in that to build a solid average to not have to worry about too much volatility to the downside, because you know, it's just staying in one place and then eventually that energy will be pushed into an upside move potentially. Another thing I like about this, we do have a breakout. You got a test one, a test two, a test three. It broke out on this one bar, pulled back, back tested, now bouncing off of that back test. And as well, you do have solid support at 40. As you can see this 40, 16, you have a bounce right here. You have a bounce right here.  So you have over three or four tests at this 40. It's obviously being defended pretty well. Somebody doesn't want to under 40. So you have a pretty solid base and I really like this for a longer term swing, something you can buy time, maybe April expiration minimum for calls. Obviously for stock as well, they do pay a dividend. I think it's about like, yeah, 2.5, 2.3% for the dividend yield. Not too bad, but you aren't really getting any equity gain out of this the last two years. You are kind of only getting a return from that dividend if you were to hold the past two years. But like I said, and then accumulation fades like this, eventually the energy will get pushed potentially into some upside. Eventually you just got to be patient. So I really like this breakout play. I'm looking at calls, but probably further out. Like I said, April expiration minimum.  It's very like choppy. It'll go down one day up, down, up, down, up, down, breakdown. You got a reversal here back down and it just goes like kind of chops its way up and down, right? You don't really see any crazy volatility and maybe you can find some comfort in that in a long term investor position because you don't have to worry about too much volatility in this stock and it's paying a dividend and it's not really going anywhere. They do have earnings coming up though on Tuesday. So you will have to be careful with that. I personally don't recommend holding through earnings. It's very risky, unless you have a lot of time on expiration. We had Penn on the watch list last week. They reported earnings. They had awful earnings. Hopefully nobody held Penn calls or anything through that. It's just too risky. If you were to buy like leaps or something a year out, obviously, that's completely different. If the stock declines after earnings, it can easily recover back within a year and you won't get volatility crushed. You won't lose too much value if it declines, but got to be careful holding through earnings. One thing I do like about this is starting to break over the one day 200 EMA as well, which has been pretty strong resistance.  So we'll need to stay over that. You got a positive MACD. That's good to go to the one week MACD is still positive as well. So if you wanted to wait till after earnings on what is that 28th? So if you wanted to wait till March or something to look at this, you could do that as well. But if you want to try to be early and you do want to hold through earnings, definitely just buy a lot of time. Otherwise, just be careful, you know, holding through earnings. But like I said, I really like this for the long term. Something you can give it lots of room to mess around because this breakouts pretty nice as well as you got pretty strong support at the forties as well at the 37th. So that's for eBay looking at calls. All right. And last but not least for our individual tickers, we're looking at XLU here. This is an ETF for utility stocks. So what I like about this, we do have a 61.8% Fibonacci bounce here. If you didn't know, the 61.8 is usually the most sought after a level for Fibonacci zones, whether you're looking at it from a down measurement for rejections, or you're looking at it like we are now in a pullback position, looking for a bounce off the 61.8. It can go the same way for downside. If you were to do a down measure, let's say like this, you would from here to here. Lots of people will look for rejections at the 61.8 as well. Or, you know, the 50 or the 38.2. So the 38.2, the 50 and the 61.8 are all pretty valid for down measurements like this. But in this case, we are measuring off of lows for upside. So you start here, you go up to this peak right here. You can kind of see that 61.8 bounce off of this little pullback zone right here. So do you like this for upside? Usually, XLU can move despite the market being down or it can kind of be a defensive play of sorts. It just depends. Obviously, there's really no hard correlation with this and the spy. The spy has been making highs. This has actually been pulling back. You do have a closing relatively flat while the spy closed down half a percent. You got tech closing down almost 1%. So this could have been worse. And there is kind of some relative strength here, I guess, of sorts. You don't have a declining as much as the indexes or really other sectors and kind of holding up this nice 61.8 bounce. It will need to break out of this downtrend line. So definitely want to watch that. So if they can break out of that, if you want to wait for that to break out, you can do that as well. So eBay and XLU could be some more patient type plays. eBay, if you wanted to wait for earnings to come through before taking a position, that's always a smart way to go about it instead of being in early and holding through their earnings and hoping that you're right. And then XLU, we do have a downtrend here that's not confirmed to break out yet. Maybe if you drew it like this, you started at this peak right here and went to this, you can kind of see a poking out of that too. So we could have a confirmed setup here, but usually like to start at the extreme point and go from there. And this is the peak high. So I start from there and I make a second point to wherever it rejects off next. So your point one, point two, and then whenever it tests this, it's going to be a point three. Some people will go through the candles despite anything. So they'll go, you know, from here to here and count one, two, three, four. It just depends. Usually I like to count the wicks. So this is the wick high of here and this is the wick high of point two. So what I will want to see is XLU getting out of this and I'll right click it. I'll add alert on trend line and we'll just name a breakout. So now that we have breakout, we hit create and we can wait for it to poke out and then we'll give us a setup. If you wanted to try to be early, you will just need to be careful in case it comes up to the line and tries to reject off of it. Another thing you do have going against you a little bit, you got the 50 EMA here. We are over the nine and twenty ones. So this is your nine, your twenty one. We are over that, but this is your 50, which is support here. It was a rejection zone right here. So we need to get over that 50 and then overall you could probably just look for the 200 EMA is a price target, which I probably mean about, you know, right here, but like sixty three or something and it will need to get over that. Similar to what you see this impulse candle right here, it will need to break over that 200 to get more momentum. You can see to try to do that right here as well, but fell back under and went negative. MACD is positive. So that's good. That's one good sign. So it's not awful. You got a downtrend line. You are trending under the 50, but overall you got a sixty one point eight bounce and also MACD positive. So this could be a pretty good play if the market declines regardless, which I'm kind of expecting the market to see some downside over the next couple weeks. And obviously, I don't think it's just going to go down in a straight line or, you know, decline, short term balance decline as markets do. But I feel like you could catch a bid regardless and kind of act as a sort of like a safety play or a lag or play, like, you know, actually your energy, you know, it has its days where it's just up huge, even if the market's red or even if the market is flat, Exile and Exile you are kind of similar in that way. Sometimes they can have just a huge day despite your broad index kind of being flat or red, utilities, energy, consumer discretionary, stuff like that, stuff that's not big tech basically, you know, they can have their own big days and kind of a mind of its own regardless of market redness, market flatness, etc. So that's the way I'm looking at it. It's kind of like a safety long, I guess, because I still want to be, you know, looking at places upside because naturally, you know, markets like to go up to, I guess, eBay and Exile you are kind of looking discounted in that way and have a mind of their own. You can see eBay here.  So that's relative strength and Exile you closing flat, despite index weakness, I would say that's relative strength of its own. So just set that alert at your downtrend line if you want to be more patient, if you did want to enter now, you just want to be careful of that downtrend line, maybe by timing your contracts to deal with any drawdown risk, you could do that as well. But if you're looking for, you know, a nice pop or short term pop, you will want to see that downtrend line being broken out of and maybe you want to take as long term of expiration for this, if you can get that confirmed breakout. All right, not to the indexes. We're looking at the spy first here. So so last week we closed at a new high. I mean, it's basically we really didn't have any good setups or anything for. I mean, you didn't want to go long. Obviously the first thing on Monday with the spy closing at this level. And at the same time, we didn't pull into the movie averages either. So it wasn't a good spot to buy yet. So basically all we had was just a potential guess on where the top could be. And you really had no signals. You had a full kind of full body bar here. You didn't have a bar like this until Monday that was signaling some type of potential reversal for Tuesday.  Spy was actually down 2% this day on CPI because it seemed like CPI was getting a little bit sticky. It freaked a lot of people out. So we pulled into the nine and twenty one e-mail combo. We pulled into this demands as a rally based rally demand. This is probably the best area to buy if you're going to buy the dip and just rip back up, fill the gap and we had to back up into our new supply, which we do have new supply here. This is a rally based drop zone. So that's one thing you can mark here, this little rally based drop. That's probably going to be from like 500 or 501 up to, you know, the WIC high. And then your demand here, your rally based rally zone is going to be from like 493s to 490 flat. So this is your tradeable range as well as we had this up trend line that we pulled into. So I'm pretty sure we talked about this trend line last week I mentioned you probably didn't want to be too bearish until we broke under this trend line. And now I hope you can see in real time why I probably said that you had test one, test two, basically a test three, and then here was test four just last week. So you had demand, you had the trend line, and you had your EMAs meeting in the same spot for a higher low to push back up into the new supply zone. And we didn't get a rejection at the supply until Friday. The supply is actually following the technical is pretty good, which is a good sign. That means you don't have to be totally discouraged. You can still mark your levels and it doesn't seem like the market is just defying logic. It's working as it should. I actually had some puts from a couple of weeks ago or last week, I think they went all the way green to 30 percent down here. I decided to keep holding it. It's just one contract because I feel like we can get under 490 eventually. So that's kind of what I'm holding for. So I held all the way from a 30 percent gain all the way to red up here and now kind of still red up here, hoping to get back down under 490 eventually. I have all the way till March monthly. So I think like three 15. But either way, even when I pulled into this, I was still skeptical that it would go down further because I had this trend line at the 9 of 20 and we had this demand zone and we couldn't close under 490. So I was kind of expecting some type of short term bounce, maybe not all the way back up to the previous all time high or this little was that 503 50s. Maybe wasn't expecting it to go that high, but I was expecting some sort of little kind of jump off this trend line, off this demand and off this 9 of 21 EMA.  Obviously, you know, it kind of sucks seeing it go from green all the way to red and seeing it retrace just all the way back to where it was in two days. But overall, I feel like eventually we can get under 490. So I'm kind of looking to get a little bit bigger of a gain and more of a correction. You know, I think we can get under 490 eventually. So that was pretty much my thoughts on the spot put position that I still have open. But either way, the technicals here, we do have potential for a short term rejection office supply here. We have one confirmed candle. Obviously, the lowest I can project until I see how it reacts, just the trend line. So it pulls into your trend line here. I can't really project any lower into demand here until we break under that trend line. If we can break under that trend line, I can project down into the same level we reached last week. So about the 490s. And then overall, I will need to get under the 490s close under that maybe reject off the back end to set up for another leg. So obviously that's kind of just wishful thinking and you will need to see that 490 break in order to project lower and as well short term, we need to see that trend line break. Same thing as last week before trending lower or projecting any lower. So make sure to mark this demand zone. This is your rally based rally candle for demand. This is your rally based drop for supply right here. So demand, supply, trend line, market all. All right, onto breadth. This is market breadth or S&P stocks above their 50 day moving average. We use this to see how really most of the market is doing because obviously with spy, you're really only getting I mean, 30% of the weighting in the spies. Some of the big tech names like at least the top 10 names hold at least 35% concentration for the whole index. Now with this and like let's say the equal weight index or RSP for the S&P, you're getting a little bit more broadness to this. This is all S&P stocks about their 50 day moving average. And this is kind of what we've been looking at to see how the market truly is kind of see if it's holding as good as it, you know, the index is making a seam. And our conclusion the past couple weeks is stocks about their 50 day have actually been going lower while the spy goes higher. So I can even pull this up. We'll look at this indicator versus the spy. So you can see the divergence. We had the indicator that we were just looking at. So this orange line is this indicator right here. And then regular candles are just the spy. So you can see overall, I mean, usually really good correlation when stocks about their 50 day are going higher, the spy is also going higher when stocks about their 50 day are going lower, the spy is also going lower. And you can see it just follows it very well overall. So this is a really good measurement for breadth and how strong or weak the market is. And you can see when it's in tandem together and it's moving pretty accurately together, you see some pretty crazy market moves and some really smooth kind of market functioning, right?  Well, now we started to get this divergence back in January. So stocks about their 50 days started trending lower, supply cap going higher. And that's kind of signaling a disconnect between breadth and the overall market and overall S&P stocks and the actual index itself. So this is obviously just big techs or you know, mega caps, you know, the top 10 names carrying the market likely due to their good earnings and overall, there was some fundamental value behind this push. I mean, you have meta report really good earnings and a lot of the other ones overall had pretty solid earnings. So it's not just some like bubble or baseless bubble, you know, there was some fundamental value and some kind of validity behind this move up. But regardless, you had S&P stocks declining, actual S&P still going higher. And the question is, is this S&P stocks about their 50 day indicators is kind of giving us a leading indication into the market pulling back. So you could say that it kind of signaled this pullback on Tuesday. You had stocks about their 50 day declining for over a month. It was probably eventually due for some type of pullback because you had breath declining and you didn't have the S&P declining yet. So maybe this overall collapse in breath did help for that pullback on Tuesday. But overall, we did get a pretty quick recovery and we're really back to square one. We still have breath declining, holding very low. Basically the spot, the same spot that it was at, you know, last week, maybe just a little bit lower because you close up here at the 501s, close at 499.50 this Friday. Overall, it's basically unchanged. So I would say that, you know, this breath indicator pulling back still has a little bit of meat on the bone to make the spy pullback if these mega caps pull back at, you know, any more than they already have that could really bring us down because you have the rest of the market kind of pulling back as well. So that's just one way to look at it. You want to see stocks about their 50 day going in the same direction as the actual index because the 50 day moving average is just a very important moving average, in my opinion, and it's your medium term moving average to kind of tell you things are bearish or bullish. And when you have a bunch of S&P stocks going back below their 50 day while the spy keeps holding over its 50 day and keeps going higher and stuff, there's just some type of disconnect there. And overall, this indicator is really like been very positively correlated with pullbacks and major bounces in the market. So you definitely want to pay attention to it. I feel like a signaling that, you know, the spy could go a little bit lower. I usually only, you know, aim for a couple percent at a time, whether for upside or downside. So I'm not expecting some crash, not some perma bear, not doing transfer clickbait or really anything like that. You know, at the most, I usually expect like a one to two percent pullback. And then I kind of measure and go from there and see how it's reacting, how it closes and I go one session at a time. I don't predict 5% 10% crashes or 5% 10% moves to the upside. If it happens, it happens. But I adjust on a daily basis after each each session or each week, kind of like what we do here, we go over a weekly trade ideas list and a weekly index analysis. So really, it's kind of been unchanged the past couple weeks, as well as the stocks above their 50 day, still staying low spot, still at the same valuation, basically same level, which makes me believe we're still due for a little bit more of a pullback, despite we got a 2% pullback on Tuesday, I still feel like there's a little bit more that could happen to the spot to the downside, especially with this seasonality this week.  So here was last Friday's close. And then we had a pretty big pullback Tuesday and we closed right here. So breath unchanged from last week, basically, let's buy the same valuation basically as well, breath hanging out at lows, spy still hanging out at highs, big divergence, could lead to some downside. All right, not through the QQQ, had a pretty major pullback as well on Tuesday. We'll actually add this feedback later. Let's go over the one day first and we'll get into those Fibonacci levels on the one hour. So QQQ similar uptrend, you got a test one, a test two, a test three, basically came down for a test four here and bounced off of that. So as you had the one day nine and 21 EMA combo holding as usual, I've been mentioning the past couple weeks, you just want to keep using this one day nine and 21 EMA combo as your higher lows or really as your dip buy areas or really as your trend gauge as well, even if you're not trading this, use it as a trend gauge. Don't get too bearish until it breaks under. And don't get too bullish when it gets way overextended over kind of like right here, right here is way extended over right here is pretty extended over. So just use these as a gauge whether using it for to read extreme upside, whether using it to buy dips or waiting for it to break trend and break down the 21 for bearish momentum. It's just the easiest way to go about it because the market respects it. So I basically have the same outlook on QQQ as I do on spy. I'm not like ultra bearish until it starts breaking down here. But I feel like overall I probably will file the seasonality if the spy does. I feel like everything will kind of get a little pullback. Obviously for downside targets, I really couldn't go any lower than this low right here. It's going to be like 416. It also had a pretty good demand zone and bounced off of if you marked this as a rally based rally zone. That was your kind of your dip by area as well. So you use the trend line, the demand or the nine of 21 EMA. There's three different things you could use last week to kind of figure out this bounce on the short term after the gap down. And then you just want to keep using this trend line. You know, this is your trend gauge or your nine of 21 EMA way for this to break way for the nine 21 EMA to break or wait for 425 to break on the QQQ that will send you down lower potentially. And you will need to see a close under all three of those, either the 21 EMA, the trend line, or the 425 level, which is demand zone low before you can kind of project lower down into 416s. This is actually a little demand zone as well, too. This is kind of like a drop base rally. So something happened here to lead to this little impulse right here. So you can mark this. So maybe 425 to 420. That's kind of a free space that could fill up to the downside if it can break. But for right now, still holding up structure pretty good. Obviously, Friday's closed pretty weak, probably due to options, expiration overall, we'll need to break under that. Like I said, otherwise, it could just, you know, kind of consolidate here, try to hold up. Obviously, I'm not as confident and upside anymore. After such a big run, you'll see a MACD going negative as well. There was a fake out last time right here once across negative, it kept going. You have a little bit more evidence the momentum is slowing this time around, especially with seasonality. And really, these past couple of weeks right here, seasonality was actually bullish. And this year, this week, not so much. So that was for the one day. Let's look at the one hour, because there's actually some Fibonacci analysis, you could go off of here for day trading and stuff. I figured it'd be a pretty good lesson. Since we just went into Fibonacci's on exhale, you remember how I was talking about the 61 point eight rejections? Well, you got one right here on QQQ one hour. So this was actually from this high to the gap down low on Tuesday, it pulled into the 61 point eight. You had a little rejection candle here. We can go down to the 15 minute. So you had a little rejection candle there. Worked pretty good for puts. You had an attempt to break over then a flush back under the 61 point eight really big pullback on Friday. Another good put trade off the 61 point eight. You have one right here short term scalp, right? 61 point eight rejection and another 61 point eight rejection right there. So like I said, the 61 point eight can work for rejections for doing a down measurement as such. And the 61 point eight can also work for upside if you do an up measurement from low to high. This is your pullback or dip by zone. So Fibonacci's work pretty good with your using it for a down measurement, up measurement. Doesn't matter which time frame, usually the higher the better. But even on the one hour, you can see here, it works pretty good. These rejections work pretty good for put scabs or day trades. So if you want to mark those for short term levels, I would definitely do that. Start from this high, go down to this low. These can be your levels going into next week for a short term for intraday levels. Obviously you're going to mark your overall one day uptrend line that we just went over, as well as your demand zone, your rally based rally right here, your 425. It's a structure low as well needs to hold. So mark 425. And then you have a pretty big demand zone right here as well at the 420s. So I hope you guys enjoyed this video. Make sure you like comment and subscribe to extra YouTube channel. Hopefully this week goes pretty good. Obviously last week is pretty decent. We had like IWM calls SMH a nice pullback we're looking for on puts. And there was some pretty good setups last week. I wouldn't say it was probably the best week, but we did have a couple trades work out. So that's always good. I usually feel good as long as you know, one of them works out. I can feel like somebody maybe made some money on something. And that's all I'm trying to do is just help, you know, you don't have to take the trades or you don't have to listen to me. But I do enjoy doing this and, you know, making these updates for people and putting my opinion out there. So I love you guys make sure you like comment and subscribe. Like I said, try to get our YouTube channel to hit the algorithm a little bit more. And thank you for watching. I'm going to get this chopped up sent out all that good stuff. So love you and I'm out.


Hi everyone, Joe for Jaspy's CaseBreaks.com. Happy Wednesday, happy new release day. One of our new releases today is 2020 Panini Luminance Football. Half-case, pick your team at number two. Jason was here early, so thanks to him he knocked out the first half. He marked these two right here, so you know they're from the same case. Just so we don't mix them up with another thing. There you go. There it is. July 15th, Mike, last spot mojo Falcons. There's everybody else right here. Thanks everyone for getting in, really appreciate it. And all card ship in this as well. Looking at this Luminance says all card ship. There's not too many cards in here and a lot of them almost, they're almost all like inserty type cards, so no real commons to pull out. Luminance, I feel like it's gotten better and better with each year ladies and gentlemen. And we've got a full case random team available on the website if you want to check that out. Jaspy's CaseBreaks.com. Alright, so this is my first look at this. Let's take a slower look. Man, the photography is always great on this. Big fan of this. There's 10 hills of 50. That's Levy on Bell, the 299 and James Morgan. Year one on-card autograph. I wonder if these might have been from, let's have a checklist up so I know where these go. Is he a jet? groupreachchecklist.com. Luminance football. Checklist by NFL team. Here's the checklist for everybody in the chat right there if you're watching live. We'll post it, note these to make it easier for the shipping team right here. So New York Jets, Darjeet with that one. What are we looking for here? Three autographs and one memorabilia card per box on average. Kyler Murray. And we'll sleep, we'll sleep and topple at all those before they go out. And our relic is DK Metcalf. What is this, what is this parallel? It's bright, it's just bright beginnings is the parallel. I don't know where it says beginnings, but bright beginnings. Seahawks, that'll be for Derwin. Lights out, Christian McCaffrey. Davante Parker to 299. And we've got Nate Stanley, 25 out of 50 Vikings. That will be for Philip Armstrong. Vietter Grossmottos to 99. And we've got a Jake Luton autograph to 299. So it looks like these autographs where they have their pro team name on there is going to be sticker autographs. And then these ones that are on card, the year one autographs are probably a little more shorter printed or less of them out there. All right, Jaguars that will go to Colton. All right, next box. Has anyone seen, someone said there's Tom Brady base cards in here? Anyone seen any? Yeah, there he is, base and parallels, Tom Brady, that's wild. Does it look weird? I'm sure we'll run into one at some point. That's to 100. There's Nick Bosa to 299. And we've got Curtis Weaver, 99 out of 100, a dolphin. That's going to go to Travis. Does it look pretty cool? Does anyone have them on a secondary market? Are they going for a lot? I would imagine they would. Steven Montez, 250 Redskins. And we've got a Drew Block Relic, 6 out of 100. For my rivals, Broncos, Rick T. Got a lot of weapons for that guy now. Shining Stars to Sean Watson. And we've got Christian Okoye. Nice, 3 out of 99, Jersey and autograph. Got some old school guys in here too. Chiefs, EA on the board. And Lawrence Taylor, autograph. Nice, 44 out of 49. And that will be for the New York football giant, Scott Corwin, Big Blue. We've got some classic NASCAR in the background. The All-Star matchup is today. All-Star race.  I think Mike was saying earlier, we demand NASCAR breaks. We have done them before. I don't make too many NASCAR products every year, but we've done a lot of NT National, Panini National Treasures NASCAR, which has been a lot of fun. That's 250, and we've got Darren Woodson. Cowboys Relic.  I think a lot of the higher end NASCAR products will have old school guys like Jeff Gordon. And this is Kyler Murray, 2.99, and we've got Denzel Mims. Denzel Mims for the Jets, that's 2.99. Give a little bit of pass-catching help for Sam Darnell. That goes to Darje. Joe Namath right there. All points. Winner take all on the points. There's Curtis Weaver at 75. So we'll randomize everybody's names at the end. We'll randomize those 600 points to somebody. And if there's more, then we'll collect them as a lot. Nice, Green Ink. Justin Jefferson, year one. I like these year one cards. Is this short printed? Justin Jefferson is a Viking. So that will go to Philip Armstrong with Minnesota. And that's exactly what Phil is looking for. There you go, man. Nice on-card green ink, greenish border. So the ink's a different short print, says Darje. We should be saying that the purple is out of five. So the green? It's like they're not numbered, but that's your kind of parallel guide there. And that's the 10 right there, Keshon Vaughn. Buccaneers. All right, a few more to go. Ron says green and pinks are numbered to 10. There's only 10 of those out there. And then the purple may be out of five, something like that. I really love the photography and luminous. They do a good job with that. Behind Adrian Peterson is Isaiah Hodgkins. That's a catch. The $2.99. Buffalo! Tony with the Buffalo bills. Buffalo! A weapon for Josh Allen. To $2.50. And we've got something for the Panthers. To $100. That's Derek Brown. Carolina Brock with the Panthers. Some Cat Team mojo. That's to $10. That's Samajah's brother or cousin or something like that. Josh Allen. There he is, flying around to $2.99. Any guesses on that redemption for bragging rights? Michael P. Ryan for the Jets. That's to $10. That'll be for Darjeel. There's Keshon Vaughn to $75. And a Steeler. Devon Bush. Big relic there. Four Patrick. A tie discussing a Cam Acres. It's going to be a year one signature RPS green. Nice, not a lot of those. So who's not signing their cards? B. Bran. Brandon. Brandon. Brandon Iac, who I think is a niner. There he is, San Francisco. Come on, Brandon. Not that busy. Sign your cards. That'll go to San Francisco. That's going to go to Michael Armstrong. All right. Two more box to go and then we'll randomize those points. Riffer says, what, he's niner's first round? Why are receivers busy working out? Give him a break. I'll tell you what, if he's following the rules, he's not really doing anything else. You can tell him he doesn't have time after dinner? Where's he going? He's not going out, is he? Into crowded places without a mask? Hopefully not. He's not working out 24 hours a day. Got time to do some of that? No, he's following Debo's lead and not signing. Like, this is Debo's rookie and he's like, don't sign. You don't have to do that. They'll still pay you. They won't though. That's $2.99 and Cole McDonald. Had a farm. $2.99. Titan spread. Charlie Warner for the niner's. That's $2.50 and we've got a CJ Henderson to $2.99. Jaguar is Colton. That's a $25 right there and another redemption. There's Watson to $2.99. That's the $50 and we've got another Devin Bush Relic. Yes, another Devin Bush Relic, another Jumbo Relic, another Steeler for Patrick Evans. Got a couple of these now. Redemption time. Ron, what's going on man? How are you? Yeah, this little mince action has been looking good. Good photography, beautiful stuff. Another year one signature. Who's not signing his card? It's card 18. Jay, James, Jared, Jared Pinkney. Vanderbilt's Jared Pinkney. Why are you Atlanta Falcons? That goes to Mike Cass. Last spot mojo. There it is. All right, last box. Oh, right, yeah. You had that Darren Woodson Dallas Cowboy Relic too, but yeah, you've got some ink now. The Pinkney ink, the pink ink. Last box. Good luck. We've got plenty more in the store, jaspyscasebreaks.com. Check it out. Half case pick your teams. Full case random teams. And we've got Hunter Bryant on card autograph. Year one auto. Nice. There's a Hunter Bryant this here and a Harrison Bryant. This here, ladies and gentlemen. Hunter goes to the Detroit Alliance. Guys, remember the TV show Hunter? Classic. That's a 99. It's a Bryant. Herion running back. We've got a Josh Allen Relic. Yes, Jumbo Relic for Tony. Buffalo. That's a cool design here too. Jubilee. Nice mint shoe. DK Met Cap 299 and an Eric Kendrick's autograph. 49. There you go, Vikings. That's her fill. Former UCLA guy maybe Eric Kendrick. There you go. That's a 250. The Bryson Hopkins. And we've got Jerry Judy to 199. Denver Broncos. Rivals. But a nice autograph for Rick T. Yeah, Jewel Rock's got himself some weapons now. And Chase Young ends things there. All right, there you go. Another nice break here. Let's get another one going. I think we definitely should. So let me flip back to this screen right here. Do I have that? Close that. All right, let's snag everybody's names from Mike down to Vincent and everybody in between. And let's roll it and randomize it. Five and a one. Six times. The name on top gets 600 points after six. One, two, and six. And final time after six. Name on top. Tony. There you go, Tony. 600 points going your way. That's for you. And there you have it, boys and girls. Joe for jaspyscasebreaks.com. I'll see you next time for the next break. Bye-bye.


Today's May 24th, my sister's birthday, and tomorrow is May 25th, my dad's birthday. So I've never been good at buying gifts. Actually, I'm pretty terrible. Maybe instead of buying something, I should actually make something. Yeah, maybe I'll make something. Minutes and then they're gonna kick me out. So, who is Jen? Well, Jen at the moment lives in Hong Kong with her fiance. She got engaged this year. Last year? I find it quite funny when I meet Jen's friends and they think I'm the older brother. Probably because she looks way younger. And I've got these bags under my eyes that are always gonna be there.   Everything I know about fashion or clothes is from her. Which is, I don't know very much, but she knows a lot. She's definitely been to more places than I have. I think 30 plus countries now. She can plan pretty much anything. She used to have this high-five system, which was like a big Coca-Cola can. And all I would hear from it was Britney Spears' first album. I pretty much know all the words because of her.  One, extremely strong and tough. We would always get into fights. There was one fight we were in. I remember her distinctively grabbing a house phone. Back when we had house phones. And she smacked me over the head with it and smashed it to pieces.   You don't. You don't.  Two, an independent thinker. I think one of the reasons why my parents weren't as strict is because of Jen. Being the older child, you always have that kind of burden of your parents that really know how to deal with you first. So she really led the way in terms of molding my parents to what they are today. She had always knew what she wanted to do. Even at university and at college. Pursuing fashion when my parents were like, No, I'm not.  And I even remember going to university to help her. Staying at hers for a week, spending a lot of time on Photoshop. And that's really the first time I had ever tried a design tool. So that was pretty cool. One day she decided to really travel.  She didn't really plan anything afterwards. Jen can ask so many questions. She would ask you 12 questions before you could even answer one of them. She's so curious about everything. You know, she really cares. So she really has a lot of empathy. She was a born designer in that way. She has really good advice. She offers a really interesting perspective. Wildly different than mine from her experience. And I really like that. I definitely value her opinion above anybody else. Three, inspiring. So I think my sister's actually really inspiring. I nearly didn't go to my graduation and she's the one that convinced me it's a once in a lifetime thing and that I should go and I'm so glad I did. We have those memories and we have those pictures because I should be proud of my accomplishments, right? Graduation of the UK is super expensive. My parents weren't going to be there. I wouldn't have gone unless Jen pushed me to say that it was actually okay just, you know, being happy with your accomplishments. During her time in Hong Kong and her tenure at the companies that she worked at, she realized that she didn't like it and she just quit. With 10 plus years in the industry, she was really brave to just give it all up to pursue something that she really enjoyed, which is teaching. And now it's really running her own business from that. I think she inspires me a lot creatively. She also inspired the last video. Yeah, I think she's influenced me in more ways than one by her tenacity, by her bravery, by her courage. You know what? We don't see each other enough. We do these trips sometimes, or if we can meet somewhere in the world, we will. Well, I think we just need to do more in general. In general. Okay, let's see what else we can find in the shopping mall. Okay, so shopping's done. We've got what we came for. Let's go back home. Let's talk about uppercase 50s in South Vietnam. Immigrated as a 20-year-old to the UK in the 70s, spent 40 or so years living in England. He's definitely one of the most humble guys I know. He loves his classical music. He also gave me the appreciation of martial arts. He was a huge Bruce Lee fan. My dad is actually a huge kid. His favorite cartoon ever was Tom and Jerry. He definitely got me into drawing. He used to sketch Batman really, really quickly. And I think growing up as a kid, I would also try to imitate his sketches. And I think that kind of brought up the love of cartoons for me. He always wanted to live the childhood that he never got growing up in a war-torn country. We had the Xbox, the PS1 and the Dreamcast at one point. I remember one game distinctively watching him play was Mario 64. My dad is definitely a huge tech fan. I probably got into computers because of my dad. We had a PC very early, and if it was up to him, he'll probably be a programmer. He really enjoys documentaries, specifically things like The Blue Planet. I remember watching lots of David Attenborough videos when I was young, and I still think David Attenborough is such a legend. Growing up, my dad has always told me about one day he wanted to move back to Vietnam, and I'm so happy for him that he eventually did it. Really enjoy retirement. Travel, see the world, celebrate everything, because why not? If there's anything you ever need, I'll guide you. I think my favourite thing of all, he has the most amazing stories from his childhood. Absolutely incredible. There's so many stories that I can't actually share here. Maybe there's one story I can share. When he arrived in England, they were based in Bournemouth in an asylum camp, and then later when they were granted their residency, they moved up to Luton, where he was working and he had a bunch of Vietnamese friends, and they would go to the pub every weekend, a regular skinhead spot, and lo and behold, something happened. He got locked into the bathroom by a bunch of skinheads. He actually broke down the door, and they just started rocking inside the pub. Obviously got kicked out, and they were walking around Luton, trying to find the skinheads.  Racism was really bad back in the day. That's crazy.   Racism was prevalent everywhere, especially when we had businesses, and people would just come in, be drunk, and just cause a fuss. There's been many times where my dad has defended our business by chasing away customers or getting into fights. It's terrible. Not only do you have to worry about your business, but you would also have to defend yourself and your family. I have so much respect for this man. Lastly, I want to finish off by saying when I get asked this question, what are you most grateful for in your life? And I truly believe this is my parents. The risk they took getting to a new country, having kids relatively early, and spending most of their life really just working 14, 15 hours a day. Risking it all and spending time in a country where you don't feel like you belong and that you don't really belong. Bringing their kids a head start in life, an education and the standard of living that the UK has. I'm extremely lucky and privileged that my parents really just went all in and was really forced into a situation where it had to work. What else can I say?  You guessed right. Right, this video is what I made for your birthday.


Okay, you're welcome back. It's still the run-up and we were talking about the fears of the Independent National Electoral Commission. They said that the current fuel scarcity in the country might affect logistic arrangements for the February 25 and March 11 General Elections. The Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, Nainek, Mohammed Yakubu, has said he will be meeting with the officials of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPCL, to look into mitigating the effects of petrol scarcity for transportation of electoral materials and officials on election day. Nainek partners the NURTW and Marine Workers Union of Nigeria to ease movement of materials and officials on election day. But the Commission worries that the shortage of petroleum products being experienced across the country could affect logistical operations on election day. The plan, according to him, is for materials and officials to arrive at the venue of elections before voters and not the other way round. And he said that he believed that this is achievable. The Chairman also said the Commission has communicated the specifications of vehicles needed and the locations to the unions. How much can these affect Nigerians and, most importantly, the 2023 elections? We've now been joined by our guest that will be discussing this with us. And his name is Ikenna Abbaso, legal practitioner. Welcome to the program. Thank you very much, my brother. I appreciate it. Okay, you are in that demographic that they say is the most populous in Nigeria, the youths. That's great. And this is the time, the first time, okay, I don't know about if we compare it with 1993, because in 1993, a lot of youths, especially the students and universities, went into the political scene to make sure they voted for MK Wabiola because of the way he impacted on their lives. But this time, in the history of Nigeria, it's a momentous occasion for Nigeria to showcase what they are made of. Now, as a youth, let's start by your fate in the forthcoming election. How much faith do you have in the forthcoming election before we address the issues of INX fears? Well, I have almost as much faith as I have in God. Why so? Why so? Because measures like beavers have been put in place. This is the first time in Nigeria's history, I would imagine. Maybe I was not around 93, I was, but I was young. But this is the first time that is one man, one vote. This is the first time I'm aware of in my timeframe that it is one man, one vote. So it means that the people now have a say. The people have the choice of who their leader is. I have so much belief in it that that is why I'm here today. I'm not here today to be on TV. I'm here today because I have belief in the system that the system will actually deliver. And all of us need to go out irrespective of tribe, religion, and whatever other small groups that we've used to ignore the big group of humanity, or the big group of Nigeria or Africa, right? It's our time to pick leaders that will actually work for the people. This is the people's mandate, this election. I'm glad that you said in your timeframe because in 1993 that I mentioned, we had a natural technology, so to speak. Professor Humphrey was who came up with something that gave us that one man, one vote, by giving us option A4 of an open, closed ballot. You see there, people stand in the line, they vote.  So it gave us the three years and various election before now. And we're hoping that this one will even surpass that because there's technology and there's a lot of other things. But what are your general expectations? Because we've seen more than 20 years of the return to democracy and people seem to be angry. What are the people of your age bracket particularly angry about that you want to change? Let's start by talking about other than forced scarcity. Forced scarcity is a typical suffering of the Nigerian. I've been experiencing that one since I was a child and seeing it over the years. But what is unacceptable for me? What is pushing me beyond boundary? Why are my brothers and sisters queuing at 8am? Have you seen the queues? The queues have a minimum of 50, every 8am machine. And I heard yesterday, I don't know if it's accurate, but somebody said we have 450,000 8am's for 200 million plus people. In the whole of Nigeria? I don't know if they were referring to Lagos State or where they were referring to, but whatever that is referring to is clear. Even if it's Lagos Street, I hear my brother. So we are tired. I don't know, somebody also said to me last night, a friend said to me last night, whoever is our next leader, is our next leader for 8 years. I'm 32 years old. So this is going to be my leader, or put entry in my 40s. These are crucial years for me. Interesting. But even before we started queuing for fuel, for fuel, for money, and for PVCs. There are other issues that... You're right. As I said, I wanted us to... Yeah, this is the... We needed somebody needs to say that these queues, and who is talking on behalf of the people that make less than 1000 a day, who is talking on behalf of those people? What are they doing at the bank? Which money do they have to take to the bank? The hawkers on the road are making 300 naira. What business do they have at a bank? So what are those people supposed to do?  So our system, basically, to answer your questions, the systems in place in Nigeria are not sustainable, and we need progress. Okay. Now, when you say the system in Nigeria, some people, you're a legal practitioner, so let me tap into that. Please. Some people have said that Nigeria has some of the best laws, but implementation is a problem. Is the issue, yes. So how can we make the laws that we already have implementable? Or how can... Very simple. Yeah, what do we need to do? Very simple. The issue is that we have bad leadership. If the head is all right, the rest of the body will start to behave. If we get a good president, a good president who forces every governor naturally, doesn't even have to impose, will naturally force everybody to want to do a decent job. Money is our God in Nigeria, unfortunately. So the courts, money is involved, still. So if we have good leadership to solve this problem, how we can solve this problem, how we can make this... How we can bring a solution to reality is by having systems in place that are headed by good people with good intentions so these systems work. Yes, it's true. Our laws are not the best, they're not the most updated, but they're good enough for a functioning society to work. Decently enough. But we're not following that. And to follow that, we need a proper system where there are checks and balances. Okay, well, the argument has always been that they permit me to use the word, the old cargo are the ones that are always at the helm of affairs and everybody wants a change. We want to use all that. Do you really think the problem is the age of the people who lead us or something else that needs to be changed? That is one of the best questions I've been asked as a human being. And yes, it's actually a human failure thing. It is not... I'm almost as equally worried if a youth person is given the helm of things. The Niger mentality has gone to the gutters. There is no morality. There is no sense of unity. There is no conscience. There is no consideration for anybody beyond themselves, their families, and their group.   So that mentality is actually a Nigerian mentality that comes from a poverty mentality. We're all living on survival mode in Nigeria. The mentality is survival. Survival is feed here and tomorrow, if we see tomorrow.  It's still working for structural rights. Yes, it's poverty mentality that is affecting us and we need to grow out of that. Nigeria is one of the richest countries in the world. Okay, I have my colleagues standing by. I've been talking almost alone all this while. Bio, I'd like to just leave him in your hands right now because I was so engrossed in it that I almost forgot that you were sitting there just watching us. So please talk to him. Let's try to hear from Eud what he feels. Yes, sir? No, I've been enjoying the interaction with you and I think he's been a very good representative of a demographic that I probably would like to be associated with. I don't know if they would accept me. But again, you raised a very interesting point when you mentioned the number of ATM machines. You are the first guest we are having on this program. Since we've been talking about scarcity of Naira, and then the dispensing of money through ATMs or POSs. I mean, Yambu has spoken about that this morning. We started again this program. There's only a day we don't talk about it. But you raised a very important point when you said one of your friends told you have 450,000 ATM machines in the country. And I did a quick research, so I'm not too sure. Because you raised the point and it's a very valid point because even that 450,000 units of ATM machines for a population of 206 million, it is grossly, grossly inadequate. So if that was the figure, that could actually explain why we are having the problems we are having. Why people are crowding the few machines and it's not always all the machines that work. But guess what I found? According to the International Monetary Fund, there were 18,810 ATM machines in Nigeria in 2020. And in 2021, there were 19,355 ATM units in Nigeria. This information was received by the IMF, retrieved by the IMF from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the United States. I don't know how true. It's possible because 2021 was three years ago. So it's possible they beefed up the number to 450,000. But assuming it's not even 450,000, what do you really think we should be doing? Because the run-up is about what the next leadership, the incoming leadership should be doing to change the country for the better. What should we be doing to avoid the kind of problems we are having now when everybody is queuing up for money, queuing up for fuel. As a young person, what do you think we are not doing as a country that we now need to be doing and the next leaders especially? Okay. Well, sir, I would say thank you for having me. I would say first and foremostly, what we are lacking is leadership that care about the people. I mean, the same way we also don't have enough hospitals, the same way we don't have enough police stations, the same way we don't have enough fire service, the same way we don't have enough water, the same way we don't have enough electricity, the same way we don't have enough of anything for 200 plus million people is the same thing. And if the numbers you gave, if I heard you say 19,000, so... 19,355. So please, how many... So maybe that 450 is an over stretch because I doubt for over 400,000 more ATMs have been added since then. But no problem. As I say, the problem is that we don't have people at the helm of things that care about us to give us the basics. If we have leadership that works for the people, the people will be given the basics. These are the basics. Nigerians are not asking for too much. They're asking for very little actually. They're asking for too little. Maybe that might even be the problem.  So we just need leadership that cares. And I think from the elections coming up, we can tell those who care about us as a people and those that do not. So that is my answer, sir. Okay. Thanks. And you also mentioned something, which I have. You were saying that people only care for themselves, their families, their group. They don't care if anyone shows up tomorrow as long as they are fine. And what I attribute that to, I just summarise it. And I am going to bear me out because we discussed this again and again. Values. Our values have come. You see the way we drive on the road. You see the way we don't tolerate other opinions. We don't tolerate other opinions. If you look at the newspaper, you go to the reader's comments online. Somebody makes a point. The other person doesn't agree. They abuse this person. They abuse his father. They abuse his village. You go on social media. You cannot hold a different opinion. They abuse everything about you. We've lost our values. But what can we do? Especially because it's young people who have mostly on social media. What can we do to change this kind of conduct? What can we do to make people tolerate even if I don't agree with you? Yet I should still be able to discuss between us civilised people. Because you know why I am asking you this. People say that our leaders don't tolerate opposing views. They forget that even we as a people, every single day, we don't tolerate opposing views. So what can be done to correct this? So it comes from a change of mental approach to life. And so let me be honest. First, to talk about a problem, you must talk about its root. Our generation has watched our parents' generations, the people 50 and above. These are all attributes that we have picked up from our parent figures in society. Where did I get the ideology? Where does one get the ideology that my brother from the nut is not my brother just because he's from the nut? Where did he get the opinion that my brother from the south is not his brother? Where did my brother from the west get the opinion that he is not the brother of the Northerner and the Easterner? Where did we arrive here? We arrived here because we were told to. That is what our society has been told. Our society is told to work on our differences. Our focus is our differences. That's why you say in comment sections every conversation is not a conversation. Nobody is having an inclusive conversation. Rather, it's a argumentative conversation. Me versus you is me against you. Why? There's zero unity. The values, the value of unity is gone. Well, I don't know if it existed before, but apparently I hope it did. But irrespective of whether it did or not, I mean, I experienced unity at the answers protest. At the answers protest, nobody was saying, oh, I'm from this tribe, I'm from this tribe, or you, you're of this religion, you're of that religion. We came together on a united front that we as the children of this society were not being taken care of properly. Some people were abusing their powers. That's all. So a change of mentality. A change of mentality is what Nigerians need to progress. And by God's grace, that mentality comes from having a good leader. Where do we start from to change that mentality? You have inducted us the oldies. No, sir. Yeah, but it's true. Because if the children misbehave, everybody points fingers at their parents. The origin. Because now the parents are the roots. The people who raise the generation that may be impatient, that may be misbehaving. So you are in line. But where do we start from to correct this? Because the parents who are already having their hands soiled in what the outcome has become may not be the real people to go back to and say, let's make a change. How do we start? Well, according to our society, the family heads are supposed to start any progressive change. You know, in Sudan, in their protests, their protests were led by the doctors, the engineers, the lawyers. The parents were in the front row of the matches. So it starts from there, but of course within ourselves, irrespective, I'm not here to point fingers. The finger I'm pointing at is at me, the individual. Okay, just say something to the youth. Let's wrap up. Just a final word to the youth who are watching you. People in your generation, how they can make a change? How we can make a change for now in this particular moment is to vote a good leader. Is to vote a leader that can actually have, that has these values, these values that we need. Somebody who is intelligent, who is good, who is fit enough, because it's a very difficult job. People need to understand that being the president is like being the CEO of over 500 companies. It's overwhelming. So anyway, we need to pick good leaders. One things are good from the leadership. It trickles down, but within ourselves, this is a step for within ourselves. Part of the reason why Nigerians are doing a lot of the things they do, negative things we do, is because the climate provides the oxygen for it. Kidnapping, terrorism, all these different factions, this one, this one, is because we're all suffering. So it's time that we make reasonable decisions in picking who is at the helm of things. Our votes count. Let's everybody go and get their PVC. I think I saw two more days to collection of PVC, and then everybody go and get your PVC and vote honestly on who will help us for the future. Okay, you've heard from someone that, you know, he's young and he's trying to talk to all of us, and it's a good way to end this segment of the show. Go get your PVCs, make the right choice. Some people, unfortunately, have been saying that they're going to vote for a candidate that no can win, not necessarily the candidate that we need. If you do that, then you are killing the very fabric of our nation. Vote for a candidate that your conscience will tell you tomorrow that you tried, even if he doesn't win or she doesn't win. Okay, there's no she in the contest. Even if the person doesn't win, vote your conscience. And tomorrow you can beat your chest and say, I tried my best. Let it not be that I did my best. My best was not good enough like James Ingram will sing it. But we've had a guest here who is young and who has been talking to us. It's to make the right decision for our Nigeria to go. We're very, very grateful that you came. Another time that we bring you will be talking to you only maybe on your legal angle to things. But now we're just flowing and we're very happy that you came. Thank you very much. We'll take a short break for the news. When we return, we'll just talk on some other issues with bio. Stay with us.