Hello and welcome to the Grand Line review your source for everything One Piece and today we should have a chapter review to do however sadly it was just not meant to be and instead the One Piece manga has been put on a sudden and rather lengthy break so we're here to talk about why that is as well as what it means for the One Piece manga going forward in the immediate future because it does have some unfortunate consequences beyond just not being able to read the thing that it is that we like such as impacting the release of the long-awaited chapter 1000. Before that though don't forget to hit that long-awaited subscribe button for the Grand Line review which will result in regular One Piece content being uploaded straight into your YouTube feed plus I've heard that pressing it will also give you supernatural powers and at the time of this recording it's hard to know whether or not that's strictly speaking true so I suggest that you all press it for the sake of science and comment with your results down below. But onwards with the topic and first up let's begin with the reasoning for the break and as with most cases along these lines it was because of author illness. Sergio Oda came down with something or had his physical or mental conditions otherwise affected specifics aren't given in fact they rarely are in Japanese public announcements not that we really need them but just before anybody freaks out Shueisha the publisher of One Piece and its serialization magazine Weekly Shonen Jump have made an announcement that Oda has already recovered from whatever the honest was so that is obviously fantastic news but it has thrown the publication schedule off a fair bit and here is their statement which has been translated by the library of Ohara on Twitter. One Piece was scheduled to be published on Weekly Shonen Jump issue 44 on sale October 5th but we made the choice to cancel it out of concern for the author's physical condition after he fell suddenly sick. That said the author's condition has currently recovered and serialization will resume in two issues from now starting from issue 46 on sale October 17th. We hope everyone can understand and I'm sure that we all do for the most part anyway I mean they're always going to be that group of people who will complain at great length that Oda takes far too many breaks even when he is legitimately ill and I guess I really do want to emphasize that although this is a large and unexpected break actually let's which probably first flesh that out for a bit of context because there were a lot of numbers in that statement issues and dates and stuff and if you're like me you don't like numbers so let's break that down. For some clarification issue 44 is the one that was released today which is currently Monday October 5th for me here in Australia although I believe it is October 4th for Americans and Europeans so this issue covers the first break and the next issue being 45 would then be released on October 12th for me being the 11th for most of you once again wonderful American and European readers but that is also a break which means that the next time you should expect to see one piece officially will be on October 17th for me and the 16th for most of you although leaks and spoilers are of course almost certainly going to emerge before then but that will be the release of chapter 992 so I hope that clears things up a bit maybe basically October is going to be a bit dry for one piece which is a shame given what's currently happening in the manga but it cannot be helped Otis Health will always take precedent over everything as it should even though I'm sure that he himself doesn't quite feel the same way which circles back quite nicely to a discussion I was about to get into which is not to be worried for him due to this break because there is indeed precedent for it happening a fair bit in the past although two weeks in a row is pretty exceedingly rare unless it gets coupled with a schedule magazine break from weekly show and jump which in this case it is not those generally happened around holidays like golden week new years and all that sort of thing but the more standard schedule tends to be three chapters of one piece followed by a break week then three more chapters and then a break and so on and so forth into hopefully infinity at least in normal times anyway this year's release schedule certainly looks nothing like any other but these roughly monthly breaks from odor are more out of necessity than anything else I'm fairly certain that odor would prefer not to take any breaks at all if it were physically possible to do so he is a very well documented workaholic and just to give you a brief rundown of his daily schedule and I just want to prepare you now you're going to be tired just hearing about this but it's actually super simple essentially he wakes up at 5 a.m and then starts working as immediately as possible then throughout the day he just continues to do that taking only the most necessary breaks such as eating and assumedly going to the bathroom and such and eventually that day will come to an end but odors workday won't because he will continue to plan right draw ink or color until 2 a.m the very next day at which point he finally succumbs to exhaustion and then decides to nap for three hours before waking up to do it all again hooray and I quite frankly do not understand how it's possible for a human to live this way although it's not unheard of a lot of very well-known names throughout history have these mythical sleep regimes touched them a very famous one would be Leonardo da Vinci who allegedly instead of actually engaging in sleep instead took a 20 minute nap every four hours it's called the uberman sleep cycle and I would not recommend it although the benefit would be an extra six hours of productivity and really odors schedule isn't all that different from this he has an extra hour of sleep and he does it all in one go which means that he does theoretically get an extra five hours out of every day totaling an extra 35 hours a week because he works seven days a week in addition to that though he already doesn't work a standard workday which for many would be eight hours instead he does closer to 18 to 20 hours a day factoring in breaks so that is pure insanity but the point of going through all of that is to ultimately land on the conclusion that not only are the monthly manga breaks necessary to facilitate its very existence but if anything they're nowhere near enough however they also bank on the idea that these are just rest breaks but humans be humans and they will get sick from time to time as well which throws this entire strategy into chaos because odor has very little time to rest let alone to recover and if I had to guess I'd say that's why we find ourselves with a double break this time around odor has developed some sort of mild illness that has struck his incredibly abused body harder than it would an average human and I guess I say this mostly to dismiss any ideas that he has been afflicted with you know a certain virus currently devastating the world because for many that two-week time period is a suspicious coincidence that's all it is though a coincidence and it's important to know that this two-week break is for serialization in the magazine and not necessarily for odor himself in fact it is almost certainly not going to be anywhere near that long for him and to explain this a bit more for consumers it's probably very tempting to believe that manga just appears mostly out of thin air on a weekly basis because the standard thought would be well it's a weekly magazine so the author must have spent all week making that one chapter for me to read right now but the reality of the situation is that they're working several chapters ahead in fact in a super old SBS segment odor revealed that his then work schedule was working four weeks in advance the example he gave was that chapter 60 had just been published yes chapter 60 because this comment is that old but at the time he had already completed a draft for chapter 63 he did also stress that this was his current schedule and that not every mangaka works the same way but it would certainly be similar and let's have a fun example of what this means let's say that chapter 992 was going to be published right here right now as it should have at the exact same time of this release what's happening is that Shueisha is in the process of printing next week's magazine which contains chapter 993 and they need to do that as early as possible in order to ship the magazines across Japan which we know for a fact happens extraordinarily early because they shipped magazines where all the leaks spoilers and scans originate from which generally means that magazines have started to hit stores about half a week before they're allowed to be sold now simultaneously at this point chapter 994 would also need to be in its stages of editing and by that I mean out of the author's hands entirely what I mean by that is it's being compiled into the source file for the next magazine to go to print adding in text and dialogue and whatever else needs to be digitally layered meanwhile once again at the same time a final draft for chapter 995 would need to be well and truly in a state of completion so that it can be ready to ink and so that assistance can begin working on it drawing in backgrounds characters and whatever other work is assigned to them and at this point the author would also need to be drawing their drafts for chapter 996 submitting it to editors for approval so that it can be prepared for the production process next week and yeah it's a lot to get your head around but in an ideal world by the time any given chapter has been officially released the author is almost certainly turning their attention to structuring events out of four chapters in the future and of course breaks do impact this by adding in gaps here and there but it doesn't really change the necessary process it just delays it ideally to allow order to rest or at least work but a bit more casually but why that process is valuable to know is because it gives us some great insight into the decision-making process by Shueisha here this was a very sudden action meaning that chapter 992 is 100% complete and was complete at the release date of 991 and in fact 993 is probably in a solid state of completion as well and so they certainly could have released chapter 992 in issue 44 although it would have caused problems further down the line because Otis illness hasn't caused problems with those it's caused problems with chapters 994 perhaps even 995 and delaying their production process so from Shueisha's perspective it was probably a better reason to hold off on releasing 992 so that they can maintain a solid production cycle which was impacted by Otis illness however I will say that it does strike me as a bit odd that a double break was deemed necessary especially since we should have been approaching a standard order break so there is some mystery there although it could be something very simple and administrative like having two breaks in a row in order to ensure a more steady chunk flow of chapters rather than having them more divided like they have been for much of this year which brings us nicely to the future where we now get to discuss the impending chapter 1000 and quite frankly with this development it is all but confirmed that we will not be making it to that stage in 2020 starting with the next issue containing one piece we will have 11 weeks left of the year the final week of which is a scheduled break for weekly show and jump so that leaves us with 10 issues to work with which it face value sounds like a pretty perfect amount but it isn't because that would assume no standard order breaks and kind of funnily enough before this announcement was made by Shueisha Otis stated his ambition in the author comment section of the magazine which was the following since the process has been adjusted because of the virus we're trying for three chapters every four weeks or two chapters every three weeks the goal is to reach chapter 1000 by the end of the year and we came ever ever so close to doing just that at the moment the estimates being made would place us at chapter 999 by the end of 2020 so wow that really was close and it does hammer home that without 2020 being 2020 we would have quite comfortably reached that milestone as it is though it looks like we'll need to celebrate chapter 1000 as part of the new year fun times in 2021 which you know it's not all that bad yes it would have been nice to do so this year but it just wasn't meant to be there's really not much that can be done about illness in fact with Otis horrendous work schedule I'm surprised that he doesn't get caught up by sickness much more often with that said chapter 1000 is still eagerly anticipated and I would like to do a series of videos in the lead up to it so keep your eye out for those and also please do comment with any suggestions you may have to celebrate that momentous occasion whenever it may be but I hope this video gave you a solid idea of why one piece is on break when to expect it back and just a general sense of gratitude for the insanity that this single man goes through simply to entertain us on a weekly basis but what do you guys think please do leave your thoughts in the comments below or even join my discord server and if you'd like to see more videos like this then please do go and check out some of my other content or even subscribe to the channel for more glorious one piece business uploaded straight into your youtube feeds but for now this has been the ground line review and I'll see you next time


What's the word y'all? We got to talk about these clippers man. They are 0-4 in the russo-westbrook era I'm gonna say that again. They are all in four in the russo-westbrook era This is such weird times because usually when players get bought out They go to a different team and now they're the sixth seventh eighth man on a good team We have russo-westbrook patch of bevely kevin love and at least until last night Just in holiday all getting bought out by previous teams going to their new team like oh I'm immediately in the start of lineup. Well, you could argue that all four of those cases It ain't going great. I mean the bulls are three and one But they also almost blew a 24 point lead to the detray pistons who don't have kade cunningham Who were missing three other starters? Um, but like kevin love and the Miami heat look bad just how then the mavericks look bad But guess what jayson kia? Let's let josh green get 30 minutes again And they and they won look at look at that and russo-westbrook company are on four So it has not been great for the big buyout market candidates Yet at least i'm gonna say it though russo-westbrook is not the sole reason why the clippers are 0 and 4 in this time frame Yeah, it has not looked pretty But it's a lot deeper than that twitter twitter was a was a war zone yesterday between the russo-westbrook stands and the russo-westbrook haters It was it was a lot to be said and the the haters are eating right now I will admit the haters are eating eating right now. I am in the middle I don't have a strict opinion about russo one way another I'm just a guy that's trying to be level-headed when I make these these conversations and make these type of videos yesterday objectively Terrible Draymond green's sole purpose. He said this post gave me an interview His sole purpose last night was to make russo-westbrook overthink the game that he loves the most in the game of basketball By allowing him to get as much space as possible. And now russo-westbrook's thinking well I knew I could hit the shot, but this is a good shot for me to take You know, I'll fire off a couple brick brick and now for the rest of the game He's trying to figure out how do I impact this team when I'm not even being guarded Now the rest of my teammates all four of my teammates around the perimeter doing whatever they're doing They're playing four on five because draymond green is playing safety And that third quarter comes around the offense is absolutely dreadful and defensively I don't know when the clippers are going to decide to finally clip up They got kawai liner who's known as one of the best perimeter defenders not just in today's era But just in general known as one of the greatest perimeter defenders in the game of basketball in the history of it Paul george the top three the dpo y type candidate and they still don't defend And they got people around them that have reputations of being positive defenders They do not defend the goal to stay was jordan pool clay Thompson's a big time shots draymond green was driving past kawai linert I'm like, yo, I know kawai has missed some time and he's still trying to ramp up, but that's draymond green They don't defend you allow third quarter for clay to get as many open shots for jordan pool to get as many open shots You can't really believe that you're going to keep a lead like that because the warriors Even without stefan curry are one of the best three-point shooting teams in basketball quick flowers to the gold and state warriors Um, step stefan curry is coming back very soon and they've done an amazing job staying afloat Because I was a little bit skeptical. I was a little bit afraid for them in their hopes to stay out of the plan They've been damn good. Jordan pool deserves a lot of love Clay Thompson deserves a lot of love and draymond green deserves a lot of love and kevon looney Everybody really kevon looney getting a lot of boards at least yesterday John the kamega hits a big time shots and makes a big time play So I want to give them a lot of love, but this is not a video about them But shout out to them clippers fans you want to close your ears on this specific part Just on this specific part close your ears and come back in in 16 seconds before the trade that line The 14 games leading up to the trade that line the clippers were 10 and 4 And now they can't buy a win Now they can't buy a win What is the reason that things have shifted so dramatically when we were having a conversation on this channel Where we were trying to debate whether or not adding russia westbrook was a good idea or a bad idea for the clippers One of the things that I mentioned is the fact that they had to incorporate eric gordon Bones hylen who don't really play unless it's against the denver nuggets and then mason plumley Oh, and now russia westbrook they have to incorporate four new players to a team with let's say 19 games left to play Trade that line hits and now tyron louis trying to figure out This is the lineup we want to play with in this minutes This is that this is that and this and that and he's trying his best to do so But it's extremely hard for him and he ain't he ain't like the perfect saint right now either But it's extremely hard for him to figure out exactly what lineup should be ran Because the sample size of every single lineup is extremely extremely small This is from reddit jimmy v says the clippers with kawaii lyna paul george and russia westbrook on court Have an offensive rating of 101 and a defensive rating of 115 If you're doing the math that is a net rating of 14 negative 14 On the season pg and kawaii have a plus about eight that was pre all star and then after all star It is a minus 12th. You hear that pre all star was a plus eight and in my after all star It is a minus 12th Again bigger sample size from the previous and then small sample size again for four games or so But still whoa again I don't want you to believe that is just the kawaii lyna paul george or russia westbrook They because i'm looking at all the lineup data and they don't have lineups that are positive right now I mean This lineup this this three-man unit played one minute together. They were they were whoo. They were good But like as far as people that have played real minutes They don't have a lineup that's considered good post post break and we're just talking three-man rotation You know what was a damga lineup pre? paul george kawaii lyna and terence man We mentioned the streak and the 14 games leading up to the all-star break or the trade that line when they were 10 4 Those are games that terence man had been inserted into the starting lineup and he had played great basketball Obviously, he's not a traditional point guard and that was one of the things that they were thinking We need somebody to can get us into our sets that is known as a plus pass or so You know what? We're gonna we're gonna throw terence man back to the bench because we believe that russia westbrook Western westbrook can be that in the 21 games that terence man had started He was averaging 11 points per game on good shooting splits. We're talking 51% of the field 45% from three on three and a half attempts and he was playing 28 29 minutes per and since the russia westbrook experiment has started His minutes have dropped off dramatically So he was playing his best basketball of his young career and that now he's not completely out of rotation He's still getting 20 minutes here 23 minutes here But now his role has just shifted the game before russia westbrook became a part of the team the game before the trade that Oh, I'm sorry The all-star break is a win against the suns where terence man had 26 on 10 of 12 And now you're telling him.  Come in. This is a double overtime game mind you You're gonna play 15 minutes So the thing that they had been ramping up towards going into the trade that line The continuity aspect of it was automatically shattered and again We're talking my continuity on the team that star player might not play here and star player might not play there and boom Now we got a hot pods this lineup together and throughout the course of the clippers error with taiwan lu He's done a decent job in that at least into this year At 33 and 32 the clippers have their worst regular season record through 65 games Since 2010 2011 the clippers have been this pinnacle of regular season goodness And listen to now where there's just one game over 500 and paul george Went on to tommy altar in jj's podcast o-man in the three and he made it seem like the low management thing Wasn't a pg and kawaii thing. It was more about the organization Which I I thought was really interesting where he talked about how they would wear these chips and these chips to let them Know a he played a little bit too hard here He needed a little bit of a rest and he was saying that it knocks off Kind of this rhythm that he had grown accustomed to he said that the new changes to the lineups and the schedules Messed up this little rhythm where he he's used to playing three games at four nights And now because the nba schedule is so different and so elongated That now he thinks that the injuries are an all-time high because of that And I just thought it was interesting because I have always looked at it as like, okay kawaii Leonard Had been low management low managing before he got to the clippers So it's not necessarily a full clippers thing, but pg is saying that hey, it's it's kind of them and not us We want to hoop now. I didn't expect him to go on to jj show and say hell. Yeah, we don't want that sand We don't want to play tonight, but I didn't also expect him to say it was because of the chips It's because of the chips It's because of our trading staff and things like that and because of all of these things I've mentioned here and it's kind of the clippers have been a team that I have Kind of steered away from talking about because it's impossible to really know what their identity is They have so many players around there that I look to be like really great role players hard nose defenders And I thought that was what their identity was going to be especially when you consider they're they're led by kawaii Leonard And there's they're secondarily led by paul george who are two of the best perimeter defenders in basketball I thought for sure that they are didn't their identity was going to be that and it has been everything but that now the numbers post Um bringing in russia westbrook are all skewed because they had the second highest scoring game in the history of basketball In the game that they they ended up losing so I can't even look at the data completely from that and say that this is the truth Because they played a double overtime game where 400 points were scored But the offense has become anemic and I guess it has been that case for a good chunk of the season Um, and it's not ideal. It's just not ideal I mean their idea is like hey, we're gonna get there kawaii Leonard has his reputation of being a cyborg once playoff time comes around And we believe we can hang with any other team in the entire league in a seven game series As long as we have kawaii and as long as we have paul george and I'm not saying they're wrong to have that mindset But I believe That the continuity thing is more important that a lot of people believe What is it 17 games left in the season? How do they figure things out? How long Will we see russia westbrook start with a go back to experiments and like the lakers did what having them come off the bench Or like I mentioned in the video when we were talking about russia westbrook signing there Do they feel some type of obligation to him? Because because paul george has been has been really adamant before russia westbrook got picked up about adding russia westbrook Like that was something he talked about a post game interviews He talked about the all-star game press conference He was saying that he would love to have russia westbrook in the locker room He loved to have russia westbrook on the team and i'm sure that's how ron lujan company trying to figure I may maybe this ain't this ain't what we want is for our starter We were looking a lot better with tarant man in that that position zubats has also been injured for a good portion of this as well So now they're missing their start in center yesterday. They're missing the morris brother So like again, it's a lot to try to digest and try to dissect and it's it's impossible It's almost impossible to figure out exactly what to say and expect I know one thing they don't want to do they don't want to be in that plan Nope, they desperately don't want to be nobody wants to be in a plan But the clippers definitely do not want to be in that plan Especially against some of the other teams that are in the conversation with them and the russia westbrook minutes are so interesting Because we mentioned in that previous video that the clippers are one of the best jumpshooting teams in all of basketball But now if teams are playing russia westbrook the way that the warriors just played him A lot of that jumpshooting opportunity is completely gone because there's an extra defender to guard those things I don't know if there's anything else to say No, I'm out luck with these videos.  So that's what we did


Welcome, myself, Mr. V. V. Angire, assistant professor, electronics and telecommunication engineering department, WIT, Sulapur. In last lecture, we have seen how Z parameter can be represented in terms of y parameters. So, in this video lecture, we are going to see how Z parameters can be represented in terms of ABCD parameter. So, this is interrelationship between parameters of two port network part two. Learning outcome, at the end of this session, students will be able to use two port network parameters to find unknown voltage, current, impedance or admittance. So, before starting with actual derivation, that how Z parameters can be represented in terms of ABCD parameter, you have to pause this video here and you have to answer a question that what are the dependent and independent variables of voltage and currents are used by writing the equations related to Z parameter and ABCD parameter. Now, we will start with actual derivation that how Z parameters are to be represented in terms of ABCD parameter. So, for that case, we have to write the equations related to Z parameters as well as ABCD parameter. Now, first we will write equations related to Z parameters. So, in case of Z parameters, dependent variables are V1 and V2 and independent variables are I1 and I2. So, equations are V1 is equal to Z11 I1 plus Z12 I2. This is first equation and next equation is V2 is equal to Z21 I1 plus Z22 I2. So, we will make this as an equation 1, this as an equation 2. Now, we will write equations related to ABCD parameter. In that case, V1 is equal to AV2 minus VI2. So, here V1 is dependent variable and voltage V2 as well as current I2. These two variables are independent variables. Second equation is I1 is equal to CV2 minus DI2. So, we will make this as an equation number 3 and this as an equation number 4. Now, I will simplify equation number 4. So, equation number 4 is I1 is equal to CV2 minus DI2. I can write this equation or I can simplify this equation as CV2 is equal to I1 plus DI2. And now, V2 can be represented as 1 by CI1 plus D by CI2. We will make this as equation number 5. Now, compare equation number 5 with equation number 2. So, if we compare equation number 2 and 5, so from this we can say that value of Z21 is 1 by C and value of Z22 is D by C. So, from this, we get value of Z parameter Z21 and Z22 as Z21 is equal to 1 by C and Z22 is D by C. Now, what we have to do is put value of V2 from equation 5 in equation number 1. So, we have to use the value of V2 from equation 5 and we have to use it in equation number 1. So, first we will write the equation number 1. So, equation 1 is V1 is equal to Z11 I1 plus Z12 I2. This is equation related to Z parameter. This is equation 1. So, here we have to put value of equation 5 in equation number 3. It is not 1, it is equation number 3, is it? So, we will write equation number 3. So, equation number 3 is V1 is equal to AV2 minus Bi2. Now, value of variable V2 from equation 5, we have to put it here. So, V1 is equal to A in bracket. It is 1 by C I1 plus B by C I2 minus Bi2. So, V1 is equal to A by C I1 plus A D by C I2 minus Bi2. Now, we will take terms common which are related to current I1. So, now equation will simplified as this. V1 is equal to A by C I2 plus A D minus BC upon C into I2, is it? Now, make this as equation number 6. Now, compare equation number 6 with equation number 1. So, from this we can say that value of Z11, this is I1. Value of Z11 is A by C and value of Z12 is A D minus BC upon C. So, after simplifying equation number 3 and putting the value of V2 from equation number 5, we will get Z parameter in terms of ABCD parameters and the values are Z11 is equal to A by C and value of Z12 is A D minus BC upon C. Now, so this is interrelationship between parameters of two port network. So, like this we can write Z parameter in terms of H parameters or G parameters and likewise we can write one two port network parameter in terms of other parameters. So, any two port network parameter can be represented in terms of other two port network parameter. So, while preparing this video lecture as a reference I have used circuit theory analysis and synthesis by A Chakrabarty. Thank you.


Good afternoon, everyone. It's a great pleasure for me to be able to be here and so and thank you for those comments When Ian McFarlane delivered the inaugural lecture in this series in 2002 He said and I quote any objective assessment of achievements would play so Leslie among the most distinguished Australians of the past century so for me, it's a great personal privilege to be able to honor his Contribution to the economics profession today, and it's a particular privilege to be able to do it under the mural here This mural was previously in the bank's office in Melbourne We sold that building last year and we were looking for home for this Mural and we couldn't have thought of a better place in the world for it to end up here at ANU where Nugget Coombs had a Very strong affinity with so thank you for taking our mural and it's a it's a particular honor to be able to speak underneath it Leslie Milfull as someone said had a long and close association with the Reserve Bank of Australia He was a member of the Reserve Bank board for most of the time between 1916 1975 And before joining the board he played a critical role in debates that shaped the mandate given to the Reserve Bank in 1959 It's now six decades since that mandate was passed by Parliament and it's more than stood the test of time So from this perspective alone, I think we have a lot to thank so Leslie for In today's lecture, I'd like to discuss two issues that Milfull had strong opinions on The first is the appropriate objectives of the central bank and the second is his view regarding the impossibility of zero interest rates Both of these issues have echoes in today's discussions of monetary policy So first central bank objectives over recent decades There's been much discussion in the academic and policy communities as to whether the central bank should have a single mandate That's price stability or a dual mandate price stability and full employment and in practice We see examples of both around the world Here in Australia though the Reserve Bank of Australia has neither a single nor a dual mandate We have a triple mandate which I have up here Under the legislation passed in 1959 It's the duty of the Reserve Bank Board to ensure that its policies are directed to the greatest advantage of the people of Australia So that we contribute to the stability of the currency of Australia The maintenance of full employment in Australia and the economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia This triple mandate was taken from earlier legislation passed in 1945 That set the objectives for the central bank division of the Commonwealth Bank This legislation had its origins in a post-World War two Australia when ensuring economic stability and higher levels of employment were very much top of mind Establishing such a broad mandate for the central bank ran against the conventional wisdom of the time Which was that central banking was just about currency and banking Indeed in his book on the history of the Reserve Bank Boris Shedman was moved to write and here I quote him This bold declaration of responsibility was a landmark in the history of central banking It was a landmark in the sense that the Australian Parliament Recognized that central banking was not just about money and finance But it was also about jobs and the welfare of our society and as the current Governor Reserve Bank of Australia I very much share this perspective Ultimately central banking is not only about finance and money Rather, it's about enhancing the economic welfare of the people we serve Primarily through achieving price and financial stability and maximum sustainable employment Melville had a very important hand in setting This direction for the institution that I now lead His contribution goes back to at least 1936 when he made a lengthy submission to the Royal Commission on the monetary and banking systems in Australia As you can see here the first sentence of that submission reads The ultimate purpose of monetary policy is to enable the economic system to achieve the optimum use of Available raw resources as far as as possible It was then 23 years later that this idea is slightly different words found expression in the Reserve Bank Act 1959 It's worth recalling though that Melville had less success in his quest for full employment To be incorporated into the charters of the global economic institutions that were set up after World War two The cell when says he was frequent a frequent Visitor to Washington the United States to set up these institutions And he was a strong advocate for what became known as the full employment approach He wasn't able to convince the international organizations, but his commitment to full employment was an enduring nature a during aspect of his his advocacy But back to the world of central banking Since the early 1990s the conventional wisdom has been that the best Contribution that a central bank can make to full employment and economic welfare is to maintain low and stable inflation This is because by keeping inflation under control and within a narrow range The central bank can reduce uncertainty and economic distortions and in so doing provide a stable foundation for people to make their decisions In turn this provide the basis for reaching the maximum sustainable level of employment That's if that is achievable given the choices that society makes about things such as the safety net The nature employment arrangements and training and education And for the high inflation of the 1970s and 1980s many central banks adopted an inflation target There's the means to deliver the sought-after low and stable inflation Central banking in many parts of the world became all about inflation control and adopting an inflation target became the way of delivering that control As part of this ship central banks also changed their communication to focus very much on inflation outcomes Accountability mechanisms were also developed to make sure that the central bank kept its focus squarely on inflation This approach made a lot of sense and it worked As you can see in this chart inflation rates have been lower and more stable since the adoption of inflation targeting Central banks have established strong anti-inflation credentials and expectations of high inflation have largely been rung out of the system Core inflation in the advanced economies has consistently been around 1 to 2 percent for the past 20 years and Measures of inflation expectations suggest that inflation is expected to remain low for many years to come Despite this success things have not exactly worked out as hoped and Recent experiences causing some rethinking of some aspects of the conventional wisdom and I'd like to draw your attention to two aspects of recent experience The first is that low and stable inflation is not a sufficient condition for financial stability and thus ultimately full employment Indeed it's possible in some circumstances a low and stable inflation Environment provides fertile ground for the emergence of financial stability risks And as we've seen too often a crystallization of these financial stability risk can have very large welfare Consequences with people losing their jobs their incomes and their savings So just achieving low and stable inflation is not enough to Maximize economic welfare The second aspect that I'd like to draw your attention to is That there is more uncertainty than there previously was about what is required to deliver short-run inflation control This partly reflects some powerful global forces including technology and increased competition from globalization These forces are affecting inflation dynamics almost everywhere So it is more difficult to manage inflation tightly than it once was In my view the Australian approach to inflation targeting Together with our broad mandate are better suited to this changing world than all more more rigid monetary policy arrangements In Australia since the early 1990s. We've had a flexible inflation target Our target is to achieve an average rate of inflation over time of between two and three percent This means that there is an acceptable degree of variation in inflation from year to year and we've been prepared to use this flexibility Our focus is very much on the medium term Hence on average and over time The board is seeking to provide a strong nominal anchor that people can rely on when making their decisions Most people in our society can cope with small variations in inflation from year to year But dealing with medium-term uncertainty is much more difficult Importantly, we've also always seen the inflation target as nested within the broader objective of welfare maximization This means that the question the Reserve Bank Board asks itself at every meeting when making interest rate decisions Is how those decisions can best contribute to the welfare of the Australian people? In particular, we are seeking to achieve the maximum sustainable rate of employment consistent with inflation being a target and We are seeking to do this in a way that limits the build-up of financial imbalances that can be the source of instability down the track And in doing this we can make a material contribution to the welfare of the society we serve I acknowledge that there is an element of judgment and discretion in this approach Certainly, there's more judgment involved in an approach to monetary policy that mechanically sets interest rates So the forecast inflation rate is at the target in two years or three years time My view is that our more flexible approach has served Australia well and It can more easily accommodate the changes that are taking place in the economic system than you can other approaches to monetary policy More generally, I also see longer-term benefits in terms of the standing of the central bank in the community If we explain our decisions not just in terms of inflation, but in terms of jobs and incomes That's not to say that inflation outcomes are unimportant because clearly they are Rather we need to remember that inflation control is a means to an end and That end is the maximization of the welfare of the society And I suspect that's a sentiment that Melville would have very much agreed with I want to emphasize that the discretion we have and our broad mandate to promote the economic welfare of the Australian people Do not constitute a license for the Reserve Bank Board to pursue or advocate economic policies outside our area of expertise Our focus is inflation control the labor market the payment system and financial stability And dealing with these matters is our contribution to economic welfare I also want to emphasize that the flexibility of our inflation target and our broad mandate and the discretion that allows us Requires a very high level of transparency and accountability from us When we make decisions there is always an element of judgment And we do have to wrestle with some difficult trade-offs where reasonable people can come to different judgments This means that you should expect us to explain our decisions very clearly You should also expect us to explain the various trade-offs we face and how we're balancing those trade-offs And as these trade-offs become more complicated in today's world of very low interest rates You should expect us to be clear as clear as we can about how we're viewing these trade-offs and how they're affecting our decisions So that brings me to my second topic and that's the very low level of interest rates around the world Reading through Melville's various writings It's pretty clear that he would have been very perplexed about the current state of affairs In particular the prevalence of zero and negative interest rates Writing in the economic record in 1938 Melville said zero interest is a limiting but unattainable value Analogous to infinity He went on to argue that the notion that a zero rate of interest is possible Assumes that there is a practical limit to the amount of useful material which can be profitably employed by society To reinforce this point he went on to write that at zero interest rates And here I quote Roads would be levelled and straightened regardless of cost In some places mountains would be dug away and valleys filled provide residential and agricultural land Deserts would be watered Beaches would be built in places accessible to cities And provided with artificial sea and sunlight I've been a strong advocate for infrastructure investment but I think some of these ideas stretch the imagination I found it surprising to read this not just because of the obvious engineering problems involved in some of these proposals But because in other writings Melville was very skeptical about public works and public debt Understandably he wanted public money to be spent wisely So his writings in this area were quite a contrast But it reflected his strong view that zero interest rates were any possibility Because at zero interest rates people would just borrow, invest and consume And satisfy all their wants So as I said he'd be perplexed about the current state of affairs As things currently stand the entire Swiss government nominal bond yield curve is in negative territory And you can see that in this chart Most of the German, Dutch, French and Japanese yield curves are also in negative territory The Swiss government for example can borrow for 30 years at an interest rate of minus 0.21% If it were to issue a zero coupon security at this yield It would mean that the buyer of the security would give the Swiss government 100 Swiss francs today And receive back just 100 Swiss francs in 30 years with no other payments over that 30 year period It's remarkable There have certainly been other periods in history where real bond yields have been negative But such widespread negative nominal yields is unprecedented and I think it's remarkable But it's not just governments that can borrow at negative yields Over recent times private companies including Coca-Cola, Orange and Siemens Have issued unsecured bonds with zero coupons and have negative yields It's also become common for European banks to issue covered bonds with negative yields And in Denmark at least one bank has offered residential mortgages at a negative interest rate Minus half a percent Although after fees the effect of interest rate is just in positive territory As you can see in this next chart there are now around US $14 trillion of bonds trading at negative yields Around the world remarkable And around a quarter of all government bonds on issue globally are now trading at negative yields Back in 1938 Melville would have struggled to understand this And today in 2019 many people also wonder how things could have come to this In the moment I will offer a few explanations Before I do so I want to point out that even back in 1938 Melville's views about zero interest rates were contested Following his article in the economic record Brian Redaway and Richard Downing Published a conflicting view with arguments that still have resonance today They pointed out that even at zero interest rates there is a limit to borrowing by both individuals and governments And that's because even if the interest rate is zero the principal does need to be repaid one day This means that projects undertaken with borrowed money still need to generate a return that's sufficient to repay the principal And also to compensate for the risk And I suspect that some of Melville's engineering ideas that I spoke about before wouldn't have met this test So how do we explain the very low level of interest rates right around the world Like many questions in economics a reasonable place to start is supply and demand Over recent times the global supply of savings has been high relative to the demand to use those savings to invest in new productive capital As a result the returns to savers especially people saving in low risk assets is low There's a lot of savings out there and not much demand for use the savings so the savers get low returns So the question is then why is the global appetite to save high Relative to the appetite to use those savings to invest in new productive capital I want to start with the saving side and then go through the investment side On the saving side I'll focus on three issues These are demographic trends the integration of Asia into the global economy and the legacy of high levels of borrowing in the past So first demographic trends As you can see globally there are some very large shifts taking place In particular population in many countries is aging rapidly and life expectancy is continuing to increase After rising for many decades the share of the global population that's aged between 15 and 64 is now declining And this declines expected to continue The United Nations estimates that average life expectancy has increased from just 55 years in 1970 to over 70 years now And this trend too is expected to increase While retirement ages have also increased as people live longer The increase in retirement age has been less than the increase in life expectancy So people are having to plan for more years in retirement And they're having to save more to finance those extra years in retirement A second important factor influencing global savings outcomes is the rise of Asia Asian countries now account for around one third of global GDP up from just 10% in the early 1980s People in Asia tend on average to save a fairly high share of their incomes This partner reflects the less extensive social safety net and the nature of the financial systems in Asia As incomes have risen in Asia average saving rates in the region have fallen a little But they remain higher than in most other parts of the world A third factor affecting savings outcomes in many countries is the higher level of borrowing in previous years While the experience differs across countries At the global level the stock of debt outstanding relative to GDP has steadily increased for the past 50 years And it's now at a record high The big shift has been in private debt particularly in the advanced economies But public debt has also trended higher over recent decades after declining following World War II One consequence of the high level of debt is that people are more careful with their spending And they're less inclined to take on yet more debt This is especially so when income growth is disappointed as it has over recent times In a number of countries both government and households feel constrained by their previous decisions to borrow And they're seeking to put their balance sheets on a sound of footing And one way they're doing this is by spending less and saving more So these are the some of the factors that are having major influences on global saving outcomes And now turn to the investment side of the equation This is important because you might recall that Melville you argued that at zero interest rates There would be an almost unlimited number of things to invest in Today's reality though is somewhat different Here again I'm going to point to 300 related factors The first is the high level of uncertainty The second is slower population growth And the third is some pessimism about future productivity growth It's well understood that there has been a high level of global economic policy uncertainty over recent times And this is evident in measures of policy uncertainty calculated from news stories in leading media outlets around the world You can see that here The sources of this uncertainty are well known The long list includes the trade and technology disputes between China and the United States The Brexit issue, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East The problems in Hong Kong and tensions between Japan and South Korea Not surprisingly these events are making businesses nervous And they're responding by putting off investment decisions Many would prefer to wait while some of the uncertainties are resolved before proceeding with costly investments It's understandable But as important as these geopolitical tensions are They're not the full story Businesses face a range of other significant uncertainties at the moment Including from the rapid pace of technology change Increased competition as a result of globalization And ongoing changes to regulatory arrangements It's probable that the uncertainties generated by these structural changes Are interacting and being amplified by the geopolitical issues In this context it's worth noting That despite the marked decline in interest rates Average hurdle rates of return for new investments in physical capital in many countries Have not changed that much It seems like there is a global norm for hurdle rates somewhere between 13 and 14% And it's hard to shift that norm Even at record low interest rates There are a couple of possible explanations for this The first is the reduction in the cost of borrowing Has been to offset the rise in the required risk premium Due to the uncertainties that I spoke about If this were so The hurdle rate would be unchanged Low or normal interest rates would just be compensating for the higher risk premium Leaving the hurdle rate unchanged The second possibility is that some firms have been slow to adjust to the new reality Of low interest rates We hear reports the hurdle rate of return of 13 to 14% Has been hardwired Into the corporate cultures in some companies And changing this hard wiring is difficult And it's time consuming However, from our liaison with Australian companies We do know that some firms have lowered the hurdle rates of return And this is opening up new opportunities for them And it would be good to hear more such reports over time My view is that there's an element of truth to both of these explanations Risk premiums are clearly risen And in some cases hurdle rates of return are too sticky And it would be good to see them come down A second explanation for the lower level of investment globally Is a slower rate of population growth Especially in the advanced economies In the late 1960s Population growth in the advanced economies Was running at around 1.2% a year Since then, as you can see, it's steadily declined And it's now running at just 0.4% And a number of countries in North Asia And in Europe have declining populations And other countries have forecast to join this group fairly soon Slower population growth means there's less need to add to the capital stock To accommodate more people There's home building and other buildings required And there's less need to invest in infrastructure To meet the needs of a growing population While there are some specific areas where more investment might be needed The overall effect of lower population growth Is to reduce investment A third explanation for lower investment demand Is that people are less optimistic about future economic growth The slower population growth is part of the story here But it's not the full story There's less optimism about future productivity growth as well One way of seeing this is in the shifting estimates The potential growth in the advanced economies In the mid 1980s Estimates of potential growth were clustered around 3% As you can see They're now clustered around half of this Similarly there's been a downward shift in estimates Potential growth in Asia Especially in China and South Korea With economies expected to grow less quickly Than in the past There's less incentive to invest So these are some of the main factors That are influencing saving and investment globally And in my view They largely explain why we have such low global interest rates But it's not the full story Central banks are also playing a role While our regular explanations of interest rate decisions Typically don't reference the broader structural factors That I've just spoken about These structural factors Are having a powerful influence On the setting of interest rates right around the world In addition Central banks have responded to the cyclical position By lowering interest rates And by buying very large quantities Of government and long term securities Before the financial crisis The central banks around the world Held only around 5% Of government debt on issue Today they hold nearly 30% In Japan The Bank of Japan holds almost 50% Of government securities on issue With these holdings equivalent to 80% Of Japanese GDP Again remarkable Another significant purchaser of government securities Over recent times has been pension funds Particularly in Europe As potential regulation has been strengthened The funds have purchased additional long dated assets To maturity match their long dated pension liabilities One way of seeing the effects Of these various purchases By central banks and pension funds Is in the term premium Normally when an investor Purchases a 10 year security A risk premium is earned Over and above the return that would be earned By rolling a short term investment Over the 10 years This premium has historically averaged Around 1.5% But it's now negative At minus 1% You get less for buying a long dated asset Than you would expect to earn From rolling a short dated one Again remarkable It's directly related to the purchase Of government securities by central banks And by others So this is an important part of the story too The main story is the structural factors That I spoke about Taking into account all these factors The key to a return To more normal interest rates globally Is to improve the investment climate While Melville turned out to be wrong About zero interest rates He was right in another sense At low interest rates Many investments that didn't make sense At higher interest rates Now make sense This is especially so for investments And payoffs Because future returns No longer need to be discounted as highly This means that low interest rates Give us the opportunity To lengthen our horizons And think about projects With really long term payoffs There are two central elements In improving the business investment climate The first is a reduction In some of the geopolitical And other risks that I talk about That have led to higher risk premiums And structural measures That give people confidence About future economic growth So that businesses are prepared To expand, invest and innovate Both of these elements Are largely beyond the control Of central banks There matters for government And for business So this is the environment In which the Reserve Bank Board Is setting interest rates It's a complicated environment With no responses of other central banks If we did seek to ignore these trends The exchange rate would most likely appreciate And the current environment That would be unhelpful In terms of jobs growth And achieving the inflation target It's important to point out though That while we need to take account Of these global forces There is no automatic Or mechanical link Between what's happening elsewhere In the world in their own monetary policy The Reserve Bank Board We're asking ourselves What is best for the Australian economy And for the welfare of the Australian people Over the course of this year As you know we've lowered interest rates Three times to a record low Of three quarters of one percent We're confident that these reductions Are helping the Australian economy And supporting a gentle turning point In economic growth In doing so low interest rates Are supporting jobs For all income growth At the same time though We recognise that monetary policy Is not working in exactly the same way That it used to We also recognise that low interest rates Hurt the finances of many people Particularly those relying on interest income So there's a balancing act here The Board is prepared to ease Monetary policy further if needed Having said that It's extraordinarily unlikely That low interest rates in Australia It is likely though that we will require An extended period of low interest rates To reach full employment And for inflation to be consistent With the target As is the case internationally though The focus needs to be on an improvement In the investment environment So that investors are prepared To take Melville's queue And use low funding costs To build new productive assets Not only would this help With a return to more normal interest rates But it would also be good For our collective welfare too Thank you very much for listening And I look forward to answering your questions Thanks very much For that very comprehensive And compelling lecture And I'm sure there'll be A number of questions We do have limited time So could I ask you to Keep the length of your questions Down to a minimum So we can maximise The number of questions asked There are microphones On Both aisles And could you Raise your hands If you have a question So the one Thank you My short history is that One year master of economics Of course that ended in 1991 Improving One of the anecdotes That I moved was Back in 1948 I think it was When Prime Minister Ben Chippley Chose Not accused to be The next Governor of the Commonwealth Bank Which then was a simple bank And Not it was I'm not to tell his friends That Norville Actually was better quality Of the job That sort of model sees a nice touch But I note that That not it actually Accepted the job And kept it familiar to me Ease Governor Lowell Thank you for your talk tonight I've been touring with you a little bit In Brisbane In Adelaide And in Armada In May, June and September On each of those occasions You've seen the signal That the Reserve Bank Was going to cut banks Next to Port Mead We're in Canberra tonight And there's a board meeting next week Should we be seeing signals Of another move next week Or is the Reserve Bank If the latter is the case I wonder if you could talk about The role of house prices In the amount of the policy process You know, for a long time We're told that Sharpe rising and home prices Were a bad thing And then the board home prices Were a bad thing In recent times There's been a sharp turnaround In home prices as Reserve Bank In fact, the five city House price index is up I'd like to know that's A double digit annualised rate gain And it looks like home prices Might go to a new level of highs Late next year Is that a good thing or a bad thing Or is that just part of the transition mechanism Of monetary policy? Well, there are a few issues there Today I was trying to steer Clear of any signals about Interest rates in the short term And trying to provide some perspective About the longer term factors That are really driving Longer term factors In mind As I said in my prepared remarks The board is prepared to cut interest rates Everything is in the collective welfare of Australia And we'll have to make that judgement As I said every single meeting And we'll have another meeting next week Where we have a discussion On housing prices I think it's undeniable that That's part of the transmission Of monetary policy Lower interest rates do push up asset prices And higher asset prices Do affect and people spend a bit more So that is part of the transmission mechanism Is it a problem? I don't think so Could it become a problem? I think only if housing credit growth Would have picked up a lot Now at the moment credit growth is modest Investor credit growth is still negative So the outstanding credit owed by investors Is still declining And credit growth to own occupiers Is only modest So that's our main focus Is on what's going on with credit growth Not with what's going on with the asset prices per se My name is Smott I'm a professor in the research school of economics Here at ANU And my comment The question is about The effect that zero interest rates Have on investment Which is not the same That's what we're talking about Now an investor Doesn't just think about interest rates Today Investor has to think about What happens to interest rates in the future So this part is about Inter-temporal Inter-temporal What happens to the interest rates We know that the interest rates are just zero Today This Will not have a very large effect on the basic model It all depends on expectations What happens to interest rates in the future I wonder whether you want to comment on that Inter-temporal aspect But at least if you take the market's view The markets are saying interest rates are going to stay low For a long period of time And that's why in Europe Ten-year interest rates are negative And the forward yield curve is negative For a very long period of time I think it's quite possible That's the world we end up living in Where interest rates globally are going to be very low For a long period of time Because the things that are driving global savings Are not going to go away quickly And unless there's a revitalization of investment Around the world There's going to be this elevated appetite To save and not much desire to invest So I think we're in for a protracted period Of very low nominal interest rates And we've got to change the saving investment Balance to change that Do interest rates affect investment In the short run I agree with you that don't have very much effect But lower interest rates Through giving people more money to spend In a small open economy by affecting the exchange rate Should increase aggregate demand And when aggregate demand picks up Firms need to invest more So there's an indirect channel But I also think there's Another important channel And that's through lowering the hurdle rates of return If you can invest And finance that investment Low interest rates That makes investments possible That were not feasible at higher interest rates And as I said in my remarks In country after country Business is still requiring 13 to 14% return on new physical capital And the reason we have Low growth and low interest rates Is because those returns are not achievable In the world we live in And many businesses I think need to make an adjustment To lower hurdle rates of return To go with the lower interest rates And that would help as well Does there a point in having to explain That the Commonwealth Bank Of only 7% of mortgage holders Actually reduced their mortgage payments After using interest rate cuts Is that number comparable to history Or is it quite a learning work And if it is a learning work Does it concern you And does it take away some of the rest Of the mortgage policy? I don't have a time series on Kind of a normal percentage of people Who cut their interest They cut their payments When interest rates go down Many people have borrowed a lot of money And their income growth is slow So it's not surprising When interest rates come down That they try and pay off the debt Because the real value of their debt Is not being eroded as quickly As it previously was Because their wage is not rising as quickly So they're having to make more of an effort To pay off the mortgages Not everyone's in that case But there seem to be a lot of people that are In the end though They might affect them to some monetary policy It may mean that the effect is a bit delayed But if people pay off their mortgages A bit more quickly Their balance sheets get to a position They're comfortable with more quickly Than they otherwise would have And then they start spending So I think it's quite possible That it delays the transmission Of monetary policy Thank you people at A&U No doubt teach long and variable lags And this is one of the reasons They teach long and variable lags In various episodes And we're probably in an episode Where it's taking a bit longer But I still think it works It's just long and variable And I was just wondering about What other people might say So when you think about saving This point of view One of the obvious Is that not everybody In the middle of an interview Should say the same thing And some people Are interested in the growing And the suggestion that Is quite important to say In some sense I think it might be a little bit delayed And you can see debates About that both in terms of technology And in terms of what governments They should do to go into any context So Any kind of future policy matters Do you think this is sort of Fair and fair people In terms of kind of global aggregate saving In Australia? I think it's no doubt It has had an impact on people's saving decisions And the income distribution Really it's kind of moved up and down Inequality's moved up and down But in recent times It hasn't really changed dramatically So I don't think you can argue That a big change in income distribution Is driving saving outcomes in Australia What's more important Is people are having to get used To slow growth in their nominal wages In Australia people used to have Wage rises of three and a half Or four percent a year That was the norm Now the norm for many people Is two or two and a half And numbers staying with three Not many people can aspire to at the moment And as that's gone on Year after year after year People are having to adjust Down their expectations of their permanent income And that's affecting their Saving investment decisions I think that's a much more important Use to our wages growing up Going up starting with a two Which as I've said on other occasions I think at ANU I think that's too low Because the inflation consistent rate Of wage growth in Australia Is close to three or three and a half We wanted to deliver you an average rate Of inflation at two and a half percent And I hope we get at least One percent labour productivity growth And workers get their normal share of that So two and a half Insistent rate of wage growth At the moment we're at two We're two and a bit I think that's a much bigger issue Than income inequality Question up at back Hello I'm from Sydney And I'm from Sydney And I'm here I was looking at what your thoughts were On our second Bishop's BlackRock paper Or one conditional That you brought it out into the mainstream The last four months It was actually just last month That Mario Draghi declared That the ECB government council Was actually zoning out The provincial policy Including the so-called one month review And the reforms actually That was actually set back in April But without endorsing So the one conditional My true idea is that we're now We're going to get there The prime minister Place inflation constraints Rather than solvency constraints With fiscal pausing And that We're going to be in crisis Because it's tend to be more destabilising Public sector deficits And those I was wondering what your thoughts Were now that there are simply Acts around the world that are Seeming to impact all the attention To some ideas that might not Have a lot of attention to the past Just to make sure That we're going to be able to Be able to build a brand And I've read that very carefully I think it's very interesting Really boils down I think what they're arguing Is really boils down to its fiscal Policy's job Because at some point That monetary policy can't stimulate The economy anymore And they say well a fiscal authority Can keep spending And it can be financed By the central bank And I don't want to comment on that Tonight You know there's a deeper question They raise kind of in some Circumstances Is there a case for coordinated Monetary and fiscal policy To stimulate the economy And at least conceptually I can think of circumstances Where that would be appropriate I mean if the economy were in A very difficult place With a sharp rise in unemployment And a little standard Of principal circumstances Where coordinated and fiscal Monetary policy would help We're a long way from those Circumstances in Australia And so it's really an issue of How much extra fiscal policy Support we should get And different people are going to Have different views on that here And I'd like to comment on Zero, one, seven, seven, five But the B9 supply Two, three, four, something more But we'd all like to see More competition, wouldn't we Probably just a few facts Are helpful here We've lowered the cash rate By 75 basis points The standard variable mortgage Rate has come down by 60 So 60 out of the 75 Has been directly passed through But what's happening every Single day out there And I encourage everyone in This room who's got a mortgage And many people are actually Getting better deals So the average mortgage rate Has come down in extra five basis points In the last three months Just because people are going And shopping and knocking on the door And say, if you don't give me a better deal I'm going to go to another bank So we're seeing people switching All the time And at the moment The average rate on new mortgages Is 30 basis points 0.300% below the average rate They're actually good deals And so there is actually competition there It's occurring for the new borrowers Or the people who are prepared to switch The people who are just prepared to Stay with the same old bank all the time And not knock on the door Are paying higher rates than they should And I encourage them to go and knock on the door The best thing we can do for competition Is for the people in this room And every other room around the country If they're unhappy with their mortgage rate To go and ask for a better one Then the banks will have to respond To your credit We want to talk about mortgages But what about credit cards And other forms of people Who are supposed to have a foreign debt? I don't really have a very good answer Credit card interest rates Are notoriously sticky They don't move very much at all I think the way that we get More competition here Is actually people go and force the banks To compete by complaining and switching But I Sorry, I didn't hear that I mean credit card interest rates Are sticky right around the wall They don't move very much And there are kind of particular Dynamics of the credit card market That kind of can lead to that outcome But I don't really have a good answer To that, I'm sorry Shannon, I have a question In regarding how can the RBA Continue to sort of foster Invested confidence Particularly in lowering interest rates Seems to be having more than one Of the same impact And perhaps anticipated And also taking into account That banks are necessarily Seem to be crossing over Full interest rates costs Well, how can we foster confidence? I think by being transparent About the challenges we face And acting consistent With our mandate and explaining To people what we're doing And how we're balancing the trade-offs There's a lot of discussion About the kind of incomplete pass-through And remember I just said 60 of the 75 has been passed through And if you take account of all the extra Switching that's going on all the time There's another five basis points That's 65 And if you take my advice And go and ask for a better deal I expect that over the next few months We'll see another five basis points So I can imagine 70 of the 75 But you know 70 out of 75 Is from my perspective It's reasonable We also need to remember That monetary transmission Isn't just about the mortgage rate It gets a lot of media coverage And the politicians are obviously Very interested in what happens to the mortgage rate But that's only one interest rate In the economy The rates that most businesses pay Come with the cash rate And people who are investing In Australian dollar securities They're worried about Wholesale rates And the Reserve Bank's cash rate So there's full kind of transmission On those channels I think broadly speaking The transmission is working reasonably well As I said in response to the other question The lags are long and variable One up the back And I think we better make this one the last I'm happy to take It's really up to you I'm happy to take a few more Two or three more I just wanted to say One of the questions asked the diagram For financial disabilities Can you just sort out those risks And how it works? Well in principle As I said in response to Rory's question I mean lower interest rates Can push up asset prices And we know in asset markets That rising prices can take on a life Of their own And we get bubbles developing I don't see a very high probability Of that at the moment Housing prices are going up But I don't see it particularly problematic You could have a financial stability Risk emerge if people start Borrowing a lot again If our incomes are only growing at 2% On average per person Borrowing starts rising much faster Than that I think we build up future vulnerabilities Which could be difficult In Europe There's a lot of concern About the effect of negative And low interest rates on the profitability Of the banking sectors Banks used to welcome having In Europe they used to welcome Having a lot of deposits on the balance sheet Rather than having to go to wholesale funding Because deposits were cheaper than wholesale funding But it's turning out now In Europe the deposits are an expensive form Of funding because the deposit rate Gets bounded at zero So banks are issuing Securities in the wholesale market At negative interest rates Are a costly form of funding So deposits are becoming a liability now Which is kind of unusual In the state of the world Things have tipped on their head So that's causing stress In the banking systems in Europe Particularly for banks that are Largely deposit funding Another issue that's Arising in Europe People are concerned About the many citizens Are concerned about the sustainability Of their pension arrangements In some countries with pension funds Earning negative returns Nominal pensions are having to be cut And the citizens are worrying That their pension might be cut And so they're having to save more again So the effect of negative interest rates Is complicated And pernicious in many ways So this is one reason I say it's extraordinarily unlikely We'll have negative interest rates in Australia I think the evidence is mixed On whether it's been a success Elsewhere Question here And then a little bit the last one Clean assistance Merits of any Interest rate cuts That's what you're writing You said You focus the only Any higher than it is now You're going to want to say That it was part of the school That the President know about I don't really want to run commentary On people who are commenting on me Well I think what I can say I feel confident The reductions in interest rates That we've had so far Have made a positive effect If we hadn't cut interest rates Think about where the currency would be It would be perhaps substantially higher And that would be bad for both Achieving the inflation target And for lowering unemployment And the fact that interest rates are lower Has put more money in the hands of people And gradually that gets spent Maybe not as quickly as it used to be But so those channels are still Working And I'm confident in the end We'll have more jobs And better income growth Because of the cuts in interest rates But as we move down further I think the interest rate cuts Are less effective I wouldn't agree with the fact that There's no positive benefit I think we'd still get some benefit And my board will have to judge Whether that's appropriate In the circumstances we face Certainly I don't think it's a constraint It's certainly a factor that it's Influencing the labour market outcomes And as I said In response to an earlier question The main challenge is to get wage growth And have that consistent With the inflation target So we've had Three years in a row Of employment growth of two and a half percent That's pretty strong The labour forces The population is only growing at 1.7% The population is growing at 1.7% The labour force is growing at 2.5% You would expect to get Substantial inroads Into the unemployment rate But over the three years The unemployment rate's hardly moved anywhere In the supply So the participation rate is Rising very strongly So it's proving quite hard To create a tight labour market And so wage growth isn't picking up And the other element that you referenced Is under-employment There's quite a lot of Under-employment And that's affecting wage dynamics The under-employment though Is really part-time workers Who want to work more hours And the Bureau of Statistics Asks people when they do the labour force survey If you're a part-time worker Do you want to work more hours? And the vast bulk of part-time workers Actually don't want to work more hours They're quite happy working part-time And happy with their hours But around 20% of the people Who work part-time want more hours And on average they want two days extra a week So that acts as kind of An extra pool of surplus labour So we're finding kind of Labour supplies rising quickly And of the people in the labour force There are a group of them Who want more hours So that's the issue you face How do you create a tight labour market Particularly when supply is very flexible And my board discusses that a lot Well I think we'll Finish up there On behalf of the audience And also on behalf of the ANU I want to thank Dr Lowe For a very stimulating Lecture And for Readily agreeing to Answer questions And So many questions of that I want to thank Professor Martin Richardson Thanks Martin for the work you've done Organising This lecture And also Michelle Burke Thanks Michelle Just reminding you that There are Available Outside out in the foyer there So again Thank you very much And I really forgot There's a packet of ANU souvenirs Thank you so much Thank you


Hey guys Today I wanted to try and figure out I wanted to check the voltages Which is the Zener voltage of a Zener diode this says it's 8.2 volts Now if you've ever looked at a diode a normal silicon diode we normally have a markings on it that you can see I'll have a number like I don't know, I-N 4007 4001 But it'll have a marking and so you can look it up These little Zener diodes don't So when you've got a couple out and you've been playing around with a few and you go to put them back in their appropriate bags You don't know whether it's saying 8.2 volts Or just a 2 volt It could even be a 12 volt That's hard to see on the back Right on there it does say 12 volt Yep, 12 volts This is even a 47 volt Now this is going to test the capabilities of this power supply And it will be the the first time that I find myself putting it into the mode where I can have 0 to 60 volts from this power supply rather than 0 to 30 volts Yeah, what else have we got here? And we've got a 30 volt Zener as well I've got a whole bag of them I've sent off with this mixed lot and I've sent absolutely lots So in a way some might say well You've got that amazing dose If you don't know what the other is Yeah, well I can't do that I have to figure out which ones they are And put them back in their appropriate bags So I did have a couple of them It was an 18 volt one that I had out I just grabbed these off the top of the pile And so and it was the 18 volt And the 12 volts that I was getting mixed up So these are fine Because these go from like one extreme I mean 2 volt up to 47 volt With a couple of few in between I think that's pretty good That's a quite nice little range The 47 volt one Which means I'll need to set up two Two lots of wires coming out And hook it together and get the system to track So as I adjust one channel It automatically adjusts the other channel And now use the combination of voltages So if there's 10 on here and 10 on there Of course I've got 20 volts coming then Now the trick is with these After a little bit of reading And looking at a few videos on the internet Is that you can test the voltage And you can go over the voltage And you won't harm the diode As long as you set Your milliamps Very low So I set up on both sides Here on both of these channels to 10 milliamps Which really Is probably Well when we combine the two It's going to be too much 20 milliamps could kill the diode If I go up too high But what we'll do is we'll see When the system is drawing If I turn this one on We'll see when it's drawing 10 milliamp there and 5 milliamp here The combination of 10 milliamp And then we'll know that that's the Zener voltage That's the Zener voltage Of the diode Which is what we want to be able to find out To put them back in the bag I've got this channel in There's three channels on this You can see the other channel there This is a 5 volt channel I'm not going to be using that Just a minute It's just easier to Yeah because it was nice To watch it going up in In Volts on there It's actually fine You can quickly add them up It's not a big problem But if you're checking out the 47 And you're looking at 23 and a half So many keys So when it comes time For popping it in I'll connect this across On one side When we're just going up to 30 volts We'll just use one of the channels Keeping simple Two volts up to 30 volts One channel And then when we're bringing in the two channels To go above 30 volts We'll use this meter as well Just to give an indication Of the one voltage Not split across two Like that Okay I'm going to do the first We're going to do the two volt one To put that bag there So we're going to lose it I'm literally going to Put the To the cathode side Positive So we're measuring reverse And What are we going to insert to? It's set at one volt anyway So that should be okay So I'm just going to turn that straight on The overcurrent protection Is on now By rights it shouldn't be able to Go higher than 10 millivolts But just to ensure I don't have to put the overcurrent protection on So what I'm going to do now is I'm going to Dial up the voltage As you can see it's on Millie there so I'm going to Just move it up a little bit Just to get it going So that's gone to 1.2 1.3 this is a 2 volt And what we're waiting to see Is we're waiting to see this We're going to allow it to go At 10 millivolts And then that will be our Or whether it's just an indication Because now it's on 1.5 And we've got 1 million So it's We're using a 2 volts As well So that's 2 volts 1.4 million So there we go We got to the We got to the maximum output And it cut us off automatically Which is good Because we've protected our diode So we know that diode is going to work for another day Down here I can see That it got to Move that across to there And if I turn this back on If I disconnect that and just turn that back on Actually We got to 2.3 Volts before that went to 10 mA So that's Diode number 1 I don't know how accurate that is I mean I wonder if you could do that 5 mA Maybe I need to Learn a bit more about the The details I just wanted the way to test the diodes And figure out Which bag there we're going to basically If I take an 8.2 Have we got anything between that We got a 12 volt We got a 47 volt And there's a We got 30 volt So let's get rid of the 8.2 And we go straight to the 12 volt Because this would be quite a humbling to use And if you're building your own ZVS drivers ZVS zero voltage Switching Which is a nice great thing isn't it We're going to switch on zero volts So same again we're going to connect Positives at the cap Where's that I'll pop that on there And this is Still on There's a 2.3 as you can see We're not drawing any amputage It's not drawing any wattage So let's Kick it back to voltage Put on the right one So I'm crossing I'm just going to take that up I'm going to minus this a little bit quicker On this thumbwheel And okay No worry about it, did you notice It just seemed like the amp between I don't know what that is I don't know if that's the power supply Or that shit And this was What was this? This was supposed to be Oh 12 volts isn't it I'm looking at the bike Behind me now So on 10 Now remember Even if I were to shoot this up to 20 volts now It would make the difference, it would just cut out It would just cut out So there we go, we're on 12 volts Just over 12 volts So I'm kind of just drawing Now I wonder if that's really As soon as you start drawing power Kind of There I mean that Is almost perfect That would say that this diode Because now there's current Going across this circuit Up until 12 volts That was nothing Now we're on 12 volts As soon as you go above 12 volts threshold Now we've got current being used I'm going to hedge a guess here And say that that Is a better Measurement Of this diode We're going to see, because we're going to try Another diode and see how close that is And as soon as it moves the mark here If that's on the correct voltage Rather than it going Above it Like on the 2.3 Or 2 before that did That's because I was trying to go up to 10 milliamp I wonder if it is better Just as soon as you start seeing The circuit being made and current Passing That's got to its threshold And then going up That would just, you know I think we call this an avalanche by it As well as an avalanche Okay, let's just Not enough for a second And we're going to pop that back in its bag Pretty damn accurate The way I'm looking at that Is going to be correct So let's go for what we've got here We've got 30 and 47 Hey, let's try that 2 volt again We're on voltage on here So let's just go down to 1.1 Just dial in, it's a lot quicker 1.1 And then I'm going to Put it fiddly So put the 2 volts Right, so let's turn that on So this is the 2 It says 2 volts on there So I'm going to wait If that just goes In a 1 little part 3, 6, 2 And now we're doing it Hey, look So 1.7 1.7 And we've got 1 milliamp And at 2 volts we've got 4 Hmm So let's try the We did the 12 Let's try this 8.2 then Because 8.2, I mean That's pretty 8.2 is pretty specific So you think 8.2 then That this Should be pretty specific on here It's not going to be This is probably Hopefully it will be the closest one Claiming to be so specific I didn't mark these up These are already pre-marked up when I bought them So As far as the marker pen because I can't seem to draw that Drawing over myself So there we go, we've got an 8.2 now So let's turn that back on And we're going to, what is this up On that, which is a little bit disappointing So right, now we're starting to get into a critical area So 7.5 Look, and we've got 1 milliamp So let's get it to 7.9 8.1 8.2 So I'm going to say that this Isn't particularly too inaccurate So 8.2 volts And we've got ourselves some current draw See the other one was bang on The other one was 8.5 0.1 1 milliamp, sorry 3 milliamp Let's see What we do at the highest scale Maybe 10 milliamp It's a scale that had been used to Demonstrate One of the videos I watched Because that was The resolution That was the one I should do on the resolution I've got the upgrade pack For this If you go and look at my other videos The upgrade Come in This is a 30 volts So then we're going to get into the threshold Of what this power supply can do In this configuration Pop this on 30 volts So I'm going to wind this up Just key it in to 28 You have one voltage So I can just go 28 I can put 28.2 Then again Probably better turn it on It needs to go down a little bit I don't think it likes the shock So let's go to 10 and just wind it up from there No It doesn't like that I've got this the wrong way around I don't think so I don't think so We're still on 10 milliamp We've got over current protection on Which is Turn that off I've turned the over current protection off It's still set to 10 volts And 10 milliamps So I'm going to see what happens What happens if we do go over So I'm going to go back to 28 volts Because this is supposed to be 30 volts isn't it Okay The over current I wish it was staying a little bit longer So let's just wind it up from here We can wind it up like that We can also I don't know which way it's at The 1 and 14 maybe there's some sort of What it will put a little bit with This should be able to go up a little bit quicker Now we're going into the That area So And there's our 30 volts 0.090 watts And then by setting this to 10 milliamp So at 5 milliamps I need to look at the Data Sheets I don't expect to have Sheets for these Generic Zenit diodes I'm just wondering About that Really great So we can safely say that That's starting to draw current now We're getting current moving across So We've got our 30 volts I think I'm doing this right I don't know if I'm doing it wrong I'm just trying to Get closer to the accurate measurement There's a slight variation Throughout the whole lot but it is only A milliamp or so isn't it Which is pretty good Right now the next bit The next bit it's the best 30 volts Oh look the bag's got a hole That's going to come in handy Now I've got two holes One permanently open If it's sticking out So I probably need to find out another bag for that See another thing We've started coming out of the bags Because these are pretty Pretty thin bags At least I could do this To find out which one it is And which one it isn't So now we've got this 47 volt What haven't we So okay we need some more leads I need to put two leads in here Obviously red and black And then we're going to tie This red And this black one together And then we're going to track Hit the tracking So we have whatever I do on this Will happen here too and then we just combine So we've got 20 here We've got 20 there and it's 40 volts in total We're also going to use These probes on this So we can actually see it going up In the voltage there too That's the That's the true voltage So Gap of the lead Put these together Just like that and tuck it inside Just to keep it nice and Neat and out the way Even though it's just going to unroll now Yeah just a bit of slime So we can just Track it down there Loose it out the way please Thank you Okay and now How are we going to do this We're going to get our thing here We're going to tell this to track We're going to turn the tracking on now They're both on 30 volts So that's 60 volts we've got there And let's just check To see if we have or haven't We don't want to put that on do we Because that's not going to It's not going to go to anywhere If I turn that on Here we go 16.03 volts 60 volts So we don't want that high So let's just put that on there 47 volts or something And that would be 24 volts Does that actually work No we're going to put it on to the right thing That's why Okay 24 volts That might still be a little bit too high But we're going to see The way I'm going to do this Is I'm just going to shove that probe Inside there I'm going to shove that probe Inside Not inside the jaws There we go And then I can just put the diode inside the jaws I'm not kidding I'm fine with the diodes I didn't drop them I didn't eat them did I I'm getting a bit peckish What do I do with it Is that it 47 volts Yeah If I just turn that off now I just want to do this Let's just pop that in There How much for that I wonder if I can just stick it down there as well I'm not going to try and get it inside the jaws But I'm not going to be that That first two it's not I know it's there and We can all see it and there it comes Let's just turn that on Okay I think that was my connection I had with it That's why that took so long So let's start spinning that up anyway Let's just sit that so we can do it One at a time 24 so we want to go to 47 So I put a straight on to let's say 40 40 I didn't like it So it's up a limit of 32 I don't know why it's saying that Because I've got tracking on Tracking's on So Anyway Let's do like this instead So we've got 35 volts coming out Okay so in total over here We're on 45 volts And this is a 47 volt zener On 2 million Right 2 million up here 46.7 2 million 47 Well I suppose that is because We've looked at it like that That is 4 million So if we sat round about the 3 million You've got to remember that 2 from bind 2 from bind So that is 4 million Dropping between 3 and 4 So I've got this connection So what are we doing So that's how we test That's how I've learnt very recently How to test the zener diodes Which always have me baffled Brilliant Oh if you've got this far Thanks for watching Yeah, bye y'all