Okay, so I'm Jane and Aaron and myself, and we've got a couple of our other members online today, Jonas, Catherine and Jerry, and we're all part of a multicultural evaluation special interest group at AES. And so today's seminar is, you know, something that we like to do, particularly on issues that relate to, you know, what is equitable evaluation? How do we do, you know, what does it mean in practice? And exploring the variety of multicultural frameworks and approaches, but I've sort of gone about this the wrong way, and I should just pause to acknowledge country. And in the spirit of reconciliation, multicultural evaluation, Sieg acknowledges traditional custodians of the country and First Nations people throughout Victoria, Australia and New Zealand, their connections to land, sea and community, we value Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people's history, cultures and knowledge and pay our respect to their elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and First Nation peoples. So yes, and today we've got Bob, who's a systems thinker and evaluator. And he has been in the systems, using systems, concepts and thinking in his work for over 30 years. And his specialty is complex and difficult projects and programs with a focus on approaches that are robust and rigorous, and but at the same time, produce information and analysis that are good enough for the organisations that need to use that information. And I think rather than me, oh, so, and so the other thing I just wanted to say is that Bob's pre recorded his presentation today, and we're going to pause about 15 minutes in and open up the room for about 10 minutes of Q&A discussion. And then we'll resume for the final 15 minutes followed by the remainder of the session as an open Q&A Q&A discussion again. And both Bob and Aaron and myself will be monitoring the chat. So as the presentation kicks in, if you have any questions or thoughts, please pop them there. And I think we shall get going. OK, let me just check everything before we start up. And just to point out that I'm overlooking the the harbour of the Punganiri Akara in Wellington. But I'm speaking from the Rohe of Tia Tiawa, one of the people of the local area. So welcome, everybody. Thanks very much for giving me this opportunity to to think a bit more about the relationship between ideas from the systems field and ideas from the evaluation field and in particular around the area of equity. As I said, this is I've got a particular throat problem at the moment, which means that if I talk to much more than about two minutes, I descend into the course, which is one reason for the pre-record. But the other pre-record is that the other reason I discovered is that actually, I seem to be far more coherent when I actually have to sit down and listen to what I've said before than just riffing on a particular topic. So the first section of this is about 15 minutes long. The previous course, we have tested it that everything will work. And then we'll have a bit of a chat and then we'll go on for another 15 minutes. So let's go. I'm going to do a couple of things. This presentation and discussion will explore the ways in which the adoption of systemic practice and evaluation can help address issues of equity. Now, I'm going to present a particular framework of understanding what constitutes a systemic framework. And then I'm going to explore three practical ways of using that framework. Now, I don't expect you to get absolutely everything I present to you in the next half hour. There's an awful lot of stuff in this presentation that may be new to you. But however, I do anticipate that you'll be able to take quite a few things away and begin to use them in your evaluations, especially those with a particular equity bias and orientation. There will inevitably be time for discussion as well. Discussions about equity within evaluation tend to fall into two categories. The first category concerns how evaluation looks at the intervention and explores processes and outcomes through an equity in that intervention through an equity lens using equity criteria. The second, which is often described as culturally responsive evaluation, concerns how the evaluation itself promotes equitable outcomes directly as a consequence of the evaluation. Now, in this particular talk, I will focus largely on the second. Why is that? Well, partly the reason is practical. Evaluation has been working on the issue of exploring how to assess interventions through an equity lens for quite some time. And I think the ideas from the systems field, while they can be valuable, and we can talk about them at some other stage, I don't think it's a game changer. I believe the major impact will be in the way in which evaluation can use systemic ideas in the way that it is practiced as a craft. In other words, evaluation by becoming more systemic will actually contribute to equitable outcomes of the evaluations. Why am I interested in that? Well, I think it's an issue of professional ethics. How can we stand in judgment of interventions around equity when we are not ourselves focusing on equitable outcomes of our own practice? As a craft, we've talked a lot, a lot about use, utilization, and usefulness for many years. But really, only recently have we been seriously considering the question, useful to whom? So let's start on this journey of how we can encourage evaluation to become more systemic by stepping back and actually looking at this thing called the systems field. And here's a diagram produced by Ray Eisen, one of the leading figures in the evaluation field, of how he considers, you can describe visually, what comprises the systems field. Now, I invite you first to look at the left-hand side of the column. And what you will see there is a very substantial list of human endeavor, human philosophies, human ideas, and practices that have actually influenced the development of the systems field over the last century or so towards developing the kinds of methods and methodologies that you will see listed on the right-hand side of the diagram, some of which you may be familiar with. Unfortunately, some of those things that you may have heard about have got slightly changed in the telling and have often generated some inaccurate understandings of what a systemic approach actually is and what the systems field represents. What I've got here are three myths, very common myths about what the systems field and a systemic approach is all about. The first one is that systems are universally self-evident and real. In fact, systems are human constructs. One eye could look at exactly the same situation and see completely different systems there. The second one really is that the myth is about the big stuff. How many times have you heard people talk about at the systems level? This is a terribly limiting idea of what the systems field is all about. Systemic practice and the systems are scale-free, essentially. A cell, as well as the universe, can be considered a system. The third myth is probably the most dangerous of them all. That myth is about the systemic approach and systems approaches and systems thinking about including everything. That's actually practically and intellectually impossible. What the systems field is about, actually, and what systemic practice is about, is being about very smart about what you leave out, not trying to include absolutely everything including the kitchen sink, which will only just confuse you. Now, a couple of slides ago, I showed you this enormous range of systems and systemic approaches, very diverse, with lots of different ways of addressing various systemic issues. But what do they actually have in common? Well, what makes them a field, in a sense? Well, let's start at what comprises a system around which there is some general agreement. Now, here is a relatively common definition of a system. A system is a collection of entities that are seen by someone as interacting together in order to achieve something. And here's a visual way of representing this. What I've done is organized the definition of a system around three core components, interrelationships, perspectives, and boundaries. Now, it should be fairly self-evident that that particular shuffling around in terms of interrelationships, a collection of entities interacting together, that are seen by someone, a perspective, different perspectives will look at the same things in slightly different ways. But why are boundaries about achieving something? Well, that goes back to the third myth. We cannot look at every single collection of entities interacting together. We cannot take every single perspective on those entities either, or those interactions either. In order to do anything, in order to respond in any way, in order to achieve something, we're going to have to start deciding which of these interrelationships and which of these perspectives we are actually going to take notice of, and which ones, therefore, we are going to have to leave out. Notice also that the three elements interrelate change our perspectives and we construct different boundaries, change the collection of entities that interact together, and that we'll actually generate different perspectives. And both of those demand quite different decisions over where to set boundaries. However, we don't just want to observe systems. That doesn't really lead us very far, but we want to practice systemic thinking. So in order to do that, we need to add some verbs, some action words. And here are important action words related to systems thinking as practiced. Firstly, we have to understand interrelationships. We have to address the question, what is the reality that we're actually dealing with? In terms of perspectives, it's about engaging with multiple perspectives and ask things like, how do people interpret that reality? And then finally, in terms of the selection of boundaries, which are often ethical and difficult and political, we should also reflect on those boundaries so that we address what is politically and socially and culturally feasible and desirable to do. The remainder of this talk is now going to explore each of these three aspects and how they can assist our evaluations generate equitable outcomes. Now, given that these aspects interrelate, it doesn't really matter where we start, as long as we just kind of keep going around the circle. And since this presentation is primarily about equity and equity can be considered really as a perspective, let's start there. Engaging with perspectives is all about the different ways a situation or intervention like evaluation can be understood. So take this illustration. There are two ways in which it actually can be understood, depending on your perspective. Some of you will see an old woman. Some of you will see a younger woman. The point that I want to make from an evaluation point of view is that the data is exactly the same, but we see different things. Now, I want to make an important clarification here. Different perspectives, taking different perspectives, engaging with different perspectives, is not about handling different opinions about the same perspective or the same understanding, but genuinely different lenses through which a situation or an evaluation can be viewed. Now, I call this particular viewpoint a framing, which, of course, begs the question about what exactly I mean by a framing. A framing is through the lens through which someone views the situation. It addresses the particular issue of how different people would complete the sentence, a system that is something to do with, a system that is something to do with health, a system that is something to do with equity, a system that is something to do with the improvement of a particular transport system. Let me give you an example of an needle exchange program. Some of you may be familiar with the concept of needle exchange programs. They were very common in the 80s and the 90s. Basically, the idea is that intravenous drug users, rather than sharing a needle, can actually take a needle to a particular site and exchange a dirty needle for a clean needle. Now, there are three ways in which, at least three ways, in which a needle exchange program can be viewed, can be framed. The first one is for HIV or indeed any blood transmitted infection. It's the reduction of HIV. The second one is that actually many of these places turned out to be very safe places for scoring. People were actually not hassled for actually taking drugs. Deals were done with the police and so on in practice. And the third one was, they're not always terribly popular in the local area. Local people often see them affecting their rental values, their property values, or at least the sort of reputation of their local area. Now, all these three are different framings. And if you think in evaluation terms, if you were evaluating a particular needle exchange program, depending on your framing, you would come up with quite different ideas about whether the program was worthwhile or not. Now, returning to evaluation, very often and very commonly, evaluations are framed as effectively something to do with accountability or something to do with program improvement or something to do with learning. However, in the context that we're exploring, the implications of taking an equity framing, in this case, our evaluation is a system that is something to do with equitable outcomes. How on earth do we actually unpick this and use the idea of framings? Well, one of the ways that I do this is through the concept of stakeholder. Now, let me clear what I mean by a stakeholder. A stakeholder is someone or something, it can be a thing, affected by or affects someone or someone, something that is of interest to us. So, this is one way that I manage this issue of framings and begin to kind of expand my understanding of the consequences of taking, and say in this case, an equity framing, something to do with equitable outcomes. Firstly, the system has stakeholders and they play a role. In this case, I've just got five example roles of an evaluation on something or other within a school setting. The reason why there are multiple roles, it's why we're talking about roles rather than stakeholders, is just to highlight the issue that actually people can take on multiple roles within a particular system. So, the principle in many smaller schools would actually also be the maths teacher. In many organizations with internal evaluators, they often may play a practical role in whatever it is. And, of course, the maths teacher in this particular case could well be a caregiver, another role that's not there, of some of the students. So, that's the stakeholder role. So, the next thing I look at is, well, what actually are the actions that are associated with that particular stakeholder role in the system? And remember, this is an evaluation system. This isn't necessarily purely the intervention that we're talking about. And I've got some examples there that you can kind of look through as I work through. The third column essentially just reminds us of what the framing is, because, of course, in many evaluations, we often deal with different framings. And multiple framings. And multiple matrices like these. But for this particular example, we're just focusing on equity. And then the final column, which is perhaps the most important one of these, is to try and understand what the motivation and interest these particular roles have within the system, within the system that we are talking about, which is the evaluation system. So there will be reporting requirements. There will be issues to do with school ranking. There would be commitments to equity in terms of the principle. The math teachers, primarily, motivations may be in terms of the overall intervention, keeping up grades, but in terms of the evaluation system outcomes, there may well be a sense of fairness. The evaluator themselves, they may well be motivated by a commitment to the evaluation outcomes, the use of the evaluation and its usefulness. And also motivated by particular aspects of evaluation standards. The student themselves, in the end, maybe just want to be a better math student. The evaluation commissioner has lots of fascinating potential motivations, but here we're just saying that, we don't have a commitment to equity, but they're also interested in their own professional capacity on the performance of students. Well, that's quite a lot to take in on a first go. The issue of what actually is the systems field and various ways of understanding what systemic approaches are, and then exploring in some detail what engaging in multiple perspectives actually means in practice. So I'm going to sort of pause there for a while just to have some discussions. Before I briefly talk about the area of understanding interrelationships and then spend a lot more time on exploring issues to do with the setting of boundaries and reflecting on them in order to decide what actually is feasible and desirable to do in our evaluations in order to create equitable outcomes. So onwards to interrelationships. Right. So I'll just finish my screen sharing here and bring everyone back to some sense of collective understanding. And let's just have a bit of a chat for a while. Please feel free to chime in if you've been thinking about anything or you have a question or even if you want to challenge some of Bob's thinking. Jonas is asking which angle is more important and then Michelle is suggesting with framing in systems thinking and sort of thinking about equitable outcomes. Is there such a thing as one of those aspects being more important than the other? Yeah, good questions. Jonas, can you just explain a bit what you mean which angle? Yeah, thank you so much. My understanding is that when I'm saying angles, the perspective, the boundaries and the interrelationship. So is it the boundaries or is it the perspective that really matter? Or are they all equal? Yeah, that's a great question. If you ask me, I get particularly excited about boundaries. But we can talk about that at the end of the boundary discussion we're about to have. However, I must admit when I first started playing around with these ideas and developing them or when a collection of evaluators and systems people were beginning to develop this kind of triangle idea that really, this isn't the only way of understanding the system. I was really interested in perspectives. So, you know, I think to a large extent it depends where your own particular stance is within your evaluative activity or in your life in general. And the official line would be they are all equally important. But obviously some of them, in any endeavor, some we feel are more important than others. But remind me to address that question after we've done the boundaries because I will then explain why I think within an evaluation context that it's kind of boundaries first, perspective second and interrelationship third. Natalie's got to... Oh, sorry. Yeah, yeah, done. Natalie's got a question. Natalie? Yeah, thanks for that. I guess for me it's that sense of... because I work with Aboriginal communities and being a funding body and also being Aboriginal myself is as we are designing a program I think there is the importance to actually create an evaluation plan for bringing all different types of people to that evaluation plan because sometimes when we say, oh, we want to make sure that it meets people's cultural needs or it's got self-determination and empowerment, we all come with different ideas around what these actual words actually mean. And so what we do is we actually clearly articulate what all the different types of words are as opposed to assuming what they are so that when we put the program together to fund the program, evaluate the program, we're all on the same perspective from workers to managers to funding bodies on what all these words mean and not assume like what we think success for a child is compared to what the community or the people think success for that child is as well. So I think we really got to think about our words because we all come with our idea of what those words mean. So I think that's really crazy, but that's my thinking. No, there's a very important quote that I use in a lot of my books, which is that words don't have meanings, they have uses. It is a myth that we can all share the same perspective. We don't. Your perspective, even though we may talk about what a word means, we still have different perspectives on that. And I think one of the areas within the systems field that made me realize that is to be really cautious about assumptions that we make around shared perspectives. It's almost impossible for us to share the same meaning of even the same perspective. And having said that, I'm not arguing against having those discussions, right? But I think you always have to keep this in the back of your mind. And there is actually a particular systems method that I don't talk about in this particular presentation that actually is very sensitive to try and unhick what those things actually mean. Sorry, I spoke over you. No, no, just the sense to also have, you know, the potential workers or end users as part of this program or whatever you're trying to evaluate so that people understand why it's important to collect this so that we can evidence up that their program works best for their community. But thank you anyway. Thanks, Bob. Yeah, yeah. I think the big challenge, I'll just add to that, the big challenge that we always have and this is what we'll get on to in the next presentation is you can never get everybody in the room. But we'll talk about it a bit later. You will have to in the end make decisions about who's in and who's not. And that's the time. And maybe sort of Melinda's raised something I think that sort of speaks to everything that we've been discussing and that's about power and so power relationships and how they inform the articulations of boundaries. So maybe as we watch the next 15 minutes be thinking about power and then we'll look back to that maybe for the final Q&A part of today's session. Please do because especially when you get into issues of deciding boundaries, power and agency become absolutely to the forefront. And again, I talked a little bit about a particular systems approach that attempts at least to expose these kinds of things, but that's part two. Any more on part one? I don't think so, Bob. So we'll kick on with part two. Righto. Okay. So thanks for those questions. They were really to the point. Much appreciated. So let's share the screen. Let's do that one. Is there a technical problem, Bob? We're not getting there. You're on mute as well. We go here. You got a copy of the PowerPoint. Here we go. Yep, that's it. Let's go onwards to interrelationships and boundaries. Now, I'm not going to spend a great deal of time on interrelationships. It's an area where evaluation has actually put in quite a lot of work in terms of understanding interrelationships within a particular setting. Having said that, the systems field does actually have some unique approaches to exploring interrelationships substantially through diagrams. And I recently published a book that explores six of those particular approaches. And if you're interested in that, then I would encourage you just downloading that book afterwards. These particular approaches would include things like rich picturing, influence diagrams and causal diagrams. And again, I encourage you to take a look at the enormous amount of information on the net which you actually want to look at that in more detail. And here is a way of expressing the learnings from your understanding interrelationships in terms of stakeholder roles. So I've just put a few examples of, in a sense, what that role is influenced by. Not necessarily caused by, but what that role is influenced by. In terms of outputs, what that role itself may influence. So it's a sort of a role based description of the various interrelationships that are within the evaluation system that is something to do with equitable outcomes. So now we have explored the somewhat large expanse of what could be considered relevant to achieve an equitable outcome. We've looked at different ways of managing and identifying engaging perspectives and the range of those and also hinted at the very wide range of interrelationships that any particular situation will display. It's a big palette and we have to start making decisions about what is ethically desirable and practically feasible in order to create in our case equitable outcomes of our evaluation. And in order to do that we're going to have to make some boundary decisions. Now every evaluation is the product of hundreds of boundary decisions. There are boundaries of space, of time, of purpose, of cost, of knowledge, of values, of perspectives, you name it. And the evaluation boundaries we choose will hugely affect its feasibility and its ability to deliver equitable outcomes. To do this I use a framework taken from a part of the systems field known as critical systems. Now critical systems considers that of all the many hundreds if not thousands of boundary decisions that are made in any particular intervention four are particularly important. Especially in tasks like the one that we're talking about which has some specific and potentially contentious goals like equity. Now the first boundary decision that is going to be made will be about who are and who are not going to be the primary beneficiaries of an equity framed evaluation. And those that lie outside of that boundary in the language of critical systems are termed marginalized since they lie at the margins of our focus. The second area of boundary choice and boundary decision is the fact that now we have to allocate the resources necessary to bring about these benefits. Now resources are not infinite we have limited time and money and other things and certainly we cannot include every perspective or every possible interrelationship in the particular area we just do not have the resources and the intellectual capacity to do that. Somebody some body sometimes somewhere has to have the ability to say this is what you have to achieve this is the resources that you have available and these are the rules for using those resources. Someone has to have the ability to control whether or not the resources are used in a way that the beneficiaries do actually benefit and the resources themselves are not hijacked to some other purpose. Someone else then is given the granted indeed the autonomy to decide whatever needs to be done within those boundaries. In other words a boundary decision has to be made between control the ability to decide the resources and the autonomy the ability to manage those resources exactly where that boundary lies in an evaluation and whether it's in the right place to deliver an equitable evaluation is a critical boundary decision and needs to be made visible and then reflected on in exactly the same way that the beneficiaries and those who are marginalized also need to be identified made visible and the choice reflected on. The third is about knowledge. Now as we know knowledge itself the use of knowledge and what is included and what is excluded is these days a very considerable discussion within the evaluation field especially in relation to indigenous knowledge. So it's important to understand what kind of knowledge is critical in our decisions about the use of resources and as I said earlier on there is so much potential information knowledge and skills out there that could inform these particular decisions that we cannot actually handle. So there will always be a need to draw boundaries around which information knowledge and skills are appropriate for the evaluation to deliver an equitable outcome within the resources that are under our control. The final area of boundary choice is legitimacy. Now just follow this logic for a moment. If those equitable evaluation outcomes are to be achieved and sustained then the evaluations equitable outcomes have to have sufficient legitimacy and support. Now in practice the greatest threats to that legitimacy are from those who are likely to be negatively impacted by an equitable evaluation outcome and especially those who have the agency and power to hinder or even prevent the outcome. How much an equity framed evaluation is prepared to trade off or negotiate with those stakeholders again is a critical boundary decision that needs to be very carefully deliberated on. So those are the four boundary choices. Now these boundary decisions raise issues about power and agency who has and who ought to have the power to decide these key boundaries and one of the great advantages of a critical systems approach is that it forces these often hidden decisions into the open for discussion and deliberation. So let's explore what this might actually mean in practice. So we've developed a matrix of interrelationships and perspectives and now we're going to have to try and work out how we're going to marginalize and what we're going to include. So let's say that in terms of purpose that our primary beneficiaries of the evaluation are going to be disadvantaged students and that we are prepared to marginalize in our evaluation the interests of non disadvantaged students. Now obviously there will be some debate around that but that's exactly the point of this sort of table. In terms of resources we're going to say that the school principal has the final say when it comes to the use of resources and the rules around that resource use. Within that the evaluation steering group which could be made up of various stakeholders has complete autonomy to decide whatever they wish to do within those resources available and within the rules that have been set. In terms of the knowledge well let's just say that we are going to include knowledge acquired and information acquired from disadvantaged students and non disadvantaged students and also we're going to include experience of other equity outcome focused evaluations. On the other hand we're just not going to take too much care of and possibly even ignore narratives and experiences outside the school community this particular school community or indeed the experiences outside the education field for instance. And also in terms of the technical side of the evaluation we're not interested at all in any kind of results or information from non-positivatory evaluation approaches. Now when it comes to legitimacy we're actually prepared to negotiate who is and is not evolved in some way in the evaluation process but one thing that we're not prepared to negotiate in order to in relation to ensuring a degree of legitimacy and sustainability is that we're not going to set to exclude the student the disadvantaged student voice in evaluation decisions. So there we have it. There's one example of the way in which you can kind of generate debate around boundary decisions using a critical systems framing. So there we have it, a way of understanding how to design and management in evaluation focused on generating equitable outcomes using those aspects of the systemic approach that considers understanding interrelationships engaging with multiple perspectives and reflecting on key boundary decisions. Quite a bit to take in. I'm going to pause again and invite some comments and reflections. So comments and reflections. Well I might sort of kick in maybe with more of a ponder than a question but it's it's a fair to say that you know like you know we have equity for one stakeholder group that that sort of I mean there's a sort of binary in that you know then it might not be equitable for another stakeholder group and you know how do we resolve this tension or at least acknowledge or manage in our practice have we ever had any sort of experiences with that situation? I think this is where we go back to the question of agency control and the nature of the evaluation economy I have a particular interest in the nature of the evaluation economy because the way in which evaluation has evolved in most countries is that we actually essentially ignore those challenges right? We leave it to somebody else make that decision and I think one of the things that is a substantial challenge to the way in which evaluation is proactive is the development of the range of systems ideas that I'm promoting because it puts these kinds of decisions out in the open and it actually loads a substantial responsibility for generating the discussion around those decisions to the evaluator rather than hidden in the whiteboards of the evaluation commission. Do I have any particular answers? No. The idea in all of this is one of them I believe is to shift the role and responsibility you could argue the professionalism of evaluation essentially away from being a trade doing people's bidding by actually taking part in raising and taking part in the kinds of discourses that I've been talking about because it's not very well to say how do we do it but at the moment we don't actually do it in general. Catherine? Thanks Bob this is great I just have a question around framing recommendations using this sort of approach and I'm wondering if given if you identify the different way framing of a particular issue and you notice that they're quite different but then you're providing recommendations to a donor but you want to use an equitable approach to that could you then frame the recommendations from different perspectives as well so if primarily the motivations of the donor were taken to account you might recommend this if you're taking the primary village people who are going to be benefiting from a particular activity would you then recommend this where you can't necessarily merge those recommendations into one nice neat recommendation could you frame the recommendations in that way from multiple different perspectives or what have you seen done or what have you done yourself this is one of the reasons why I refuse to deliver recommendations in my evaluation I actually believe for a whole variety of reasons that it was one of the greatest mistakes that evaluation has ever made is to play amateur consultants we're not paid to be consultants we don't have sufficient knowledge in the areas that we work in or in the specifics of where we're working in we're usually just in for a few days a few weeks we're actually proper consultants we spend an entire year trying to work things through so in a sense you're asking the wrong person because I literally refuse these days I will help the discussion around options and allow the key stakeholders and this is I think where it gets closer to addressing your question to develop recommendations themselves in a sense what I would I would kind of fudge my answer to you by saying that in a sense our job is to facilitate that discussion amongst the key power brokers and the key stakeholders that have a substantial interest in the outcomes of the evaluation and that goes back again to the whole issue of power and agency because who determines ultimately who has the ability and authority to develop recommendations that come off from any particular evaluation if you are concerned about evaluation consequences there isn't a simple answer to that we can't change the entire power structure of society through a single evaluation but I do believe it is the evaluator's responsibility increasingly if we wish to be a craft or a profession to raise these issues and comment on the power relations that we actually see as recommended as ideas for the future begin to develop I add to the discussion here Bob on this idea of workshopping actions or recommendations with the different stakeholder groups involved it strikes me that we put a lot of thought into when we do focus groups or surveys how we sample or how we include people in the data collection process but perhaps not as much thought into then how we interpret and make recommendations and I know in my practice data parties and the whole idea of bringing people together around a summit or something is something we're well versed at but I wonder if you've ever applied that approach a more nuanced approach to doing the analysis and sense making and action planning within an evaluation setting very rarely because of the nature of the evaluation market I mean I have fought literally fought evaluation commissioners people who essentially pay my wages to develop those sorts of ideas and they just trundle along their 365 page evaluation guidelines report and say this is how you do it there's so no I within an evaluation context no I haven't but I don't always work within an evaluation context and on those people okay yes I have actually managed to kind of pull those things through but there's no you know there is no there's no magic method about this I mean I think one of the weaknesses of all of these sort of slightly more edgy methods and I want you know my brief summing up to raise these things is there is an issue of safety and I think as we move closer to the boundaries you know as our evaluation approaches and methods move much more towards the boundaries of what is what is generally accepted of our craft and of our profession then I think we do actually we do have to keep a very close eye on safety I mean I was doing some work in Rwanda a couple of years ago systems were we were teaching actually that we were trying to sort out a particular issue about kids hating school now in Rwanda you get killed if you go against all the gown me it's as simple as that people follow you anywhere in the world and kill right so in doing this sort of influence mapping thing we had to literally design the process so that it maximized that allowed us to have a systemic approach but maximum ensured that the various participants were organized and the job was framed in such a way that no one was put at risk because I think that's a really really important area as we move closer to the boundaries of what is generally expected of this thing called evaluation does that help just noting we're getting very close to time so I think maybe we've got time for one more question if anybody's got a burning question just looking actually Emily use this pop something up so Emily's asking Bob if you have a read of it yeah I'm trying I've probably read it too fast is what evidence or data can we collect to address those evaluation questions I think one of the things that I've always learned or one of the things that you learn from thinking about things systemically is you can't collect everything and you have to make quite important decisions about what doubt you do and you don't collect know what I provided within an equity frame are the kinds of areas that might actually get you closer to this but in a sort of a day-to-day level say for instance when I'm designing a survey I literally just say this is the question I need to address this is the data that I need to be able and this is the data I'm intending to collect and how am I going to actually physically use that data in the particular context that I've done and I find those sorts of questions being quite specific I set up yet another matrix right and that I think helps me work out ultimately in the end within the resources I've got available with the people I want to benefit and the kind of knowledge that is acceptable within this particular context which actually are the data areas but I sense that I'm dodging the question maybe we can talk about it offline you want my little wrap up I think that might be might be good thank you so much Bob for your time today and for your thought-provoking presentation and I think it sort of speaks to everybody's interest that most people have hung on you know with meetings on the side of this lunchtime session so thank you once again that's okay this will take about two minutes and then we can all say our advice yep I think I'm often asked at the end of these sorts of presentations is well what do we do next where do we start on this kind of stuff and my advice is this firstly be strategic start with an aspect of the system field that interests you if you're interested in interrelationships if you're interested in diagramming if you're interested in some kind of perspectival stuff or if you're interested in the boundary stuff start with that and play around with it first be careful using systems ideas can actually change your relationship with key colleagues and stakeholders just be aware of that be safe for that reason seek low risk and medium reward first and be useful don't just run off and use systems ideas in any way just use them when you think they would add something valuable to your particular alteration be creative I've given you a bunch of ideas but don't be purist just kind of stick to the make sure you stick to the core principles and above all just have a bit of fun because that's what it can be and if you want to find out more information here's some of the work that I've produced in this particular area but honestly there's just a massive stuff out there and I'm more than happy to help guide people through what's available thanks very much and thanks Bob and we just had a question from someone regarding sharing the presentation are you happy to share your presentation slides absolutely right yeah and it's the whole thing the slides will come with the narrative as well so I'm more than happy to keep it around that and as always there's the after sale service some of these ideas may interest you and obviously underneath each of the things in this very short presentation there's quite a lot of ideas and thoughts and experiences and networks that can help you if you as in one of the slide we were saying can we start with something that kind of don't feel you have to do the whole thing draw some boundaries around it and work from there I regard this whole thing as kind of a stepping stone approach you know make the first step see how useful it was maybe the next step so thanks for your time guys and I'm going around with some of these ideas don't hesitate to contact me if you have any particular questions every question I'd like to send to you thank you thank you everyone for staying and being a great audience


a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Now Larry Pezzavento. OK, looking good. Billy Ray feeling good, Lewis. We've got a lot to cover today and Stan Harley will be our guest at the break, but let's just get to it. Here's the Dow E-mini S&P over the last four or five days. Now you can see we made the big ABCD pattern down there that we were waiting to see down there at 4306. Let's see, 4366. There was a number that we were waiting for right here. I don't have the longer term. Well, I do, but I want to show you this. This is what happened last night. We rallied exactly to the 382 of a high that we made back on the Monday. You can see that here. We are Wednesday just made a 382. Now we're making a lower low, really a bad sign, but there's still hope. Let me show you the hope lies and believe me, it's not much of a hope. So let's get this up here to take a look at this. This is the Dow Jones folks. This is that number we were waiting to see. There it is 43674. So we're right there right now. When we get below that, it's trouble in River City. And the reason why is you had the nice ABCD pattern here and now you've got the ABCD pattern here. And there you go. You know, we're almost there. As you can see it here, that is at 33578. So we're the 100 points. We go below the 1.618 here. We're going to hit this one right here. And that's where it looks like it wants to go. The time is correct, the price is correct, but the market hasn't turned yet. So by golly, you got to pay close attention to that. There's so many things happening at one time here that we're going to look at them one at a time here. But one of the big ones, of course, is the gold. You know, we've been, we had this nice move in gold. We were looking for it to get to 1908 and it got there. And we took a quick $3 loss in that. I said to put a stop in at 06 because 06 took out those old lows. And that means that we're heading down even farther. You can see here, we have to go to the four hour chart to get this up. And this is where I wanted to, well, that was the four hour, we must have to go to the daily. Hold on just a second here. There's where we were, here's where we were right here. You see, we thought we were going to hold right here folks. That's what it looked like because you had a very nice ABCD pattern right here. And I said in the video, I said, do not be in this thing if it's below 906. You see the old low back here? Once that took that out, bada-bing, bada-boom, that says we're going to go a lot lower. How much lower? Well, you're looking at this daily here. There's where it's going to go, 1887, all right? And that's basically, we're at 1893, you're $6 away, probably there before the show's over. There's your AB leg on this one. There's your CD leg on this one. And there's where she's going, right there at 1887. That's what I'd be looking at right there. So anyway, we had a nice move on the downside. If you remember when we got up to here, when the Fed was out there bouncing around at that 78% level at 1967, we said sell it short. It was right when the Fed was out there. And I don't know if you got in or not, but it had a nice move down. But the good part about the nice move down folks, if you look at this on a smaller time band, we had a lot of three eight twos in here to get you short. There was one here and one here. I didn't even see one last night because I wasn't paying too much attention. I was watching the stock market pretty good and also the bond market, but from the high down to the low, it would have made another three eight two right here off of this high. So another one right there. So you get a couple rallies and boom down to the downside. One of the things that I'm thinking of doing and I'm gonna have to run this by TFNM, let me get this up here. I wanna show you, this is the British pound that we were bearish for quite some time. But folks, it takes a lot of knowledge to sell in a market like this. And this is what I'm thinking of doing is doing a two hour show showing folks how to trade strong trending markets on the downside. Because we're gonna see some folks. This is just the start of it in the stocks. I mean, this is, it might be the start of it and everything. I don't know, but that's what it looks like. It's happening here. So I hope that makes some sense. And that's what I'm looking at. But let's take a quick look here at the daily here because we've got a little bit more to go to the downside. We're setting almost exactly at the 78% level right now. You see it's 0.786 here. So we need to get it down just a little bit lower. This is not drawn properly. So let's draw it in because the prices have changed. And you'll see we're almost at the 78% level. That comes in 100 points and 20 from where it's at right here. Look how it went through the 50%. That stopped it for three days. 618 just went through that like it didn't even exist and it might do the same thing here. But this is where you gotta take a look at it right here. That's the British pound. Now it's not quite ready yet, but it's getting there. If we look at this closer, and that's what we're gonna do right now is we're gonna go from your high down to your low. That's your AB leg right there. And you'll know what this is. That's 382 right on the money. A one, two, three, four-day rally right on the money and down you go. And that's where we're looking at right now. The other thing that you would wanna be looking at is I don't know, let me set the reset defaults on this so I can see the charts better. There's what I wanna see. Okay, now as we got this, we wanna see the number of days down in the move because that's what we have happening in the stock market, folks. Number of days down in this move took 29 days. Okay, so let's see how close we are to 29 days. Oh my goodness, that doesn't happen until the end of our middle of October. So this thing could have a long way to go to the downside. We gotta be looking at it here 100 points lower, but that's not so good. And also, since we're talking about the currency here, hold on just a second, get this up here and take a quick look at it. Here we are in the Euro. Look, see how we went. We stopped here at the 1.618 for a heartbeat and then look at this. See, you're still moving lower. And one of the reasons is because if you look at the daily chart, which we've been looking at, you can see this big number coming in here at 104 and change. That's what our goal is, is right at 104. So that's why you're starting to see these things move to the downside. That means the dollar is strengthening, i.e. weaker gold prices. That's the basic thing. So I hope that gives you a rough idea of what we're looking at today. Here's the NASDAQ. You'll see the NASDAQ has made a slightly lower low, has not broken really badly. But let's just look at it on the daily because there's a bigger number out here that we haven't hit yet in the NASDAQ. Bring it up here and you'll see it. That number in the NASDAQ is way down here. 14328, that's down to 300 points from where we are right now. That means if it gets much below this, folks, that's where it's going. So you've got to be really careful. And you just stop for God's sake. That's the only thing that'll keep you alive in these markets for heaven's sakes. All right, let's do something here that I, oh my goodness, I didn't realize that my picture was right up there. Son of a gun. All right, let's get this out of the way here and window and get it all together. Kyle, vertical, because there was one other one. I covered the gold. Ah, here's the big daddy rabbit, folks. This is the one that runs the show and we're getting ready to see it go. Hold on. There is a three drive to a bottom pattern forming as we speak. This might be a survival of fittest. Okay, there was a three eight. Here was your three eight two off of that one right there. Okay, let's just get this out of the way. Don't need it anymore. Okay, we take it from the high down to the low and there's your three eight two right there. We'll be right back. Eight, seven, seven, nine, two, seven, six, six, four, eight. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year. An amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his mastering probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk free today. TFNN, Educating Investors. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. Tom publishes his daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open along with updates when warranted. Stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox.  Ready to join the ranks of successful traders? Head over to TFNN.com and subscribe to Market Insights today. Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results. Market Insights comes with a 30 day money back guarantee for all new subscribers so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game. Head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter Market Insights firsthand. TFNN, educating investors. Adding stock options to your portfolio can be a major game changer, but the full complexities of these instruments can oftentimes allude to even the most experienced traders. Whether you're a seasoned trader looking to sharpen your knowledge on options or you're completely new to the market, Teddy Kextat is here to help. On Wednesday, September 27th, from 4 p.m. to 5 p.m. Eastern time, Teddy is hosting a live stream that will teach you how to capitalize on time with calendar stock option spreads. Teddy will also go over how to trade stocks and other market movements without large capital allocation, how to expand portfolio diversification, how to maximize potential returns, basic entry and exit techniques, and more. If that wasn't enough of a reason to attend, Teddy will also be answering all questions live. If you're serious about making money in this market, head over to the front page of TFNN.com today to sign up for Teddy's live stream, TFNN, educating investors. Call now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Okay, folks, I started the show showing you the chart of a high grade bond. I probably should put it up here again because I don't know if you were here at the beginning of the show, but let's get it up here because that's one of the key things that we look looking at here because this is a big deal. Let's get the chart up here with the weekly because that's what we've been trying to focus on. And you'll see it here right now. There it is, get it up here. You can see now we're breaking down, blow it up a bit so you can see that we have broken down. Yesterday's high right on that line and this means we're going lower, folks. The reason why this is important, this is financing in the oil market and other smaller companies that get small financing by using junk bonds. And once this starts to go, well, this is bad for regional banks, but we already seen the chart on regional banks. Let's just look at it again. The chart on regional banks is right here. Bring this up here on the daily, I believe, so we'll see it quickly. And this is not a good sign either, as you can see here. We've been going down for quite some time we're breaking down even more, breaking down below the ABCDs on this are way down here. So that tells you that these regional banks have a long way to go before they get to it. That's another 10% or so to the downside. Let's get back to the bonds because I wanted to show you something on a short-term basis. This market's been very bearish for a long time. If you remember when we broke this level right here during the Fed time, where was that when it was 17 something? I think, yeah, this is it right here. This is when it broke, okay? And the rally, look, ever since that time we've been going down really strong but seven days ago, folks, we've been talking about this all the time for seven days. So trading a bear market is quite simple. You just got to realize it's a bear market and how do you realize it's a bear market? Let's look at that. Hmm, oh, it's going down. We've got lower tops and lower bottoms. That's a bear market. So what you want to be looking for is to find the ABCD patterns. There's your first one right there, okay? And there's that one, look, it's right to that level. Then we've got another one right here. We've got another one right here and we're heading down. And if you look at this on a little bit longer timeframe, you get down to the daily and you'll move. You can say, okay, something more is out there. So you're going to go to the weekly because that's the one we've been looking at because this is where it's going, folks. It's going down here to the 1.0. It should stop right here for a little bit, 13.05 because that's a 1.27 of this whole thing and this is a huge market. But just look at this weekly down move, folks. You know, we're down on four handles this week. It's telling you this market's weakening it once to go to 1.06. That's really what it says. I don't know. All right, now I'm going to stick my cell phone on a limb here and talk to you about something. Okay, here's bonds, all right? We're going to go back to the weekly and we're going to just draw this. Let's go to the monthly that we can see the whole thing. Okay, there's where the high was up here. You see this high? Three drive to a top. You remember what they were doing to us then? They were telling us that, wow, interest rates, you're going to get negative interest rates, folks. You're going to have to give them the money and they're not going to guarantee that they're going to give it back to you and you have to pay them for holding the money. And I said, gee, that sounds like a really good deal. Well, guess what? You know, I'm not the sharpest knife in the door, folks. And I don't know diddly squat about most of the fundamentals. When I read some of this stuff, it's so far over my head that I'm embarrassed to even talk about it.  That's the way I am. And I'm never going to change, but you know, when I see a chart, that tells me something, okay? I see something now. I probably shouldn't do this, but I'm going to do it. I see something now that's, uh-oh, what was that? Somebody's calling in probably. Hold on, just a second here. Where is it? Where's the thing in here, Errol? Similar question about digitizing of our currencies. I don't even know how to do that, Errol. I wish I did. I don't even know. Oh, you mean if that has with broad, with the broad, yeah, that's probably going to happen. You can see it happening everywhere. I think you're talking about cryptocurrencies and block chains and stuff like that. I'm sure, but I know so little about it that I can't really talk about it. And fortunately I could get to John Jameson on the line, but he's traveling right now. So he could answer it in a heartbeat, but I can't. That's coming. Because you know, they're basically, that's what they're going to do. They're going to take the money that we have and it's going to be like China where you have no money. You have a telephone, you put that in there and they're going to control everything.  And that's what the goal of this whole thing is. And that's coming, no question about it. Let me get back to where I am here because I've only got a couple of minutes before Stan comes on. This is the treasury bonds, okay? Wait, another phone call in there. Hold on just a second here. Hold on, what's a second here? Hold on just a second, hold on just a second. What am I doing here? Shucks. Well, I'm not going to worry about that. Hold on, let me, I got to try one more time. Earl's on the line, yes, can I help you, Earl? Oh, I was the one that had the question, Larry, about what's going to happen to our trading account money when they turn, or our bank accounts are going to CBDCs. Is our trading account going to be transferred into that too? No, no, it's just a savings account, savings account to bank, that law, that what was it called, I can't even remember now. It's a big bill that Obama put in there and that they can take money out of the account to protect ourselves against the markets and stuff. It'll be in the savings account area where the big money is, you know, because the stock money is not that much and also the bond money should be saved too. But as far as I know from what people have told me, they can take money out of the savings account, but they can't, they won't be taken out of brokers, but they could make an addendum to it and that's what they're going to do, I don't know. The big thing that's going to happen, Earl, is that they're going to be taking money out of circulation. You'll see no more cash.  They won't be able to spend it. And that's where the real, that's where the real pedal to the metal will be because that is coming, they're going to do it. They've already done it in China, Earl. You don't have cash in China. There's no coins and no paper. It's all done by telephone. Even the beggars have, Sarah's there right now. Even the beggars have their own telephone. So if you want to give them something, you put the one RMMB, whatever it is, and they get the money. So that's where it's going, my friend. Yeah. Well, I appreciate it. Earl, I appreciate you more than you can imagine because what I was going to show you, I'm glad, I just no time left and I hope Stan takes the whole time because if he does, I won't be able to show it. I'll show it tomorrow. But I see the same thing happening in the treasury bonds that I've, in another market that's, they're doing the same thing and says, look at me over here, see how great I am? But on the other side they're saying, I ain't so great. I'm going to share with you tomorrow probably, okay? Yeah, I've been very fortunate. I've been short 20 year all the way down. I was hoping so. We have been too. We've been telling you for two years it's going lower. Now everybody says, gee, wonder why it's so weak, huh? But who knows? Finally, after 20 years, it's like printing money. Yeah, that's right. They're catching up with us. That's for sure. There's no question. Hey, Earl, we've got to go for a break here, but thank you very much for calling in. Hope to hear from you again too, okay? Okay, Larry, thank you. You bet you. Stay on the green side of the grass, pal. That's what's important. We'll be right back, folks. We've got a break coming up. Stand hard. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven in hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds, the South African RAND, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. 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For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. Don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Okay, we're back, folks. We have Stan Harley in the house. Stan, how are you doing? I am doing awesome, Larry. Just awesome. You're looking good today. I like you better without the tie, pal. You look relaxed. That's the important thing. Stan, two weeks ago, we had, well, it was actually two and a half weeks ago, we had you on the tube here and you said look for lower prices into October. I remember that very vividly and we have lower prices coming down. What are you looking at, my friend? Do you want to share some charts with us? Absolutely. Let's take a look at some charts, shall we? Yes, sir. Go to full screen mode here. I thought I'd start out with looking at the monthly data. This is kind of a recap of something we've talked about in the past and this kind of take us to where we are today. Going back many, many years, the stock market was punctuated by a cycle that spanned about four years. Mathematically, it's 49 months and there's some Fibonacci numbers that go into defining that. But every 49 months, approximately every 49 years, we saw recurring lows in the market and that went on for more than 40 years throughout the 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s. And then something very interesting happened at the October 2002 bottom, that cycle expanded by a Fibonacci 1.618. So it didn't go away, it just expanded. So what we now have is a recurring rhythm in the market that spans about 79.6 months. You can call that 80 for round numbers. And that's been the defining rhythm for the last two years. That cycle last bottomed in October of last year and assuming the rhythm continues, why we should see the next low in the vicinity of May, June, 2029. And here we are, of course, just past the halfway point of 2023. So that's kind of the backdrop. Notice in each of these cycles on the, we've had consistent right translation, well, right translation here, here, here, right translation, meaning the crest or the high point of the cycle occurred to the right of the midpoint. And that is characteristic of bull market structure. It is. Now, I think if we see a high next year, which is what I'm thinking, we will have left translation in this dominant 79.6 month cycle. That'll be the first time that we've seen that in a very, very long time. And that will mean a secular top is in the rearview mirror and things are changing, of course. We're not there yet. We still got some work to go before we get there. Let's take this down a little bit lower to the weekly pattern. And this is a chart I've shared with you the last couple of months and I'm just updating it now through the present. Yep. Interestingly, this pattern is evident, I find only on the chart of the New York composite. It's not evident on the chart of the downed industrials. It's not there on the S&P, the NASDAQ, the Russell, the transports. But interestingly, it's very evident on the chart of the New York composite, which curiously is an index that rarely is shown by the media or by market technicians. But this cycle sprang forth from the January 2016 bottom. That's where the New York comp bottom, the downed S&P actually bottomed in February that year. But the New York composite bottom there and the 24 months later, in January of 2018, we saw a high. 24 months later, we saw a high in January of 2020. The downed S&P actually peaked in February, but the New York comp topped in January. Then we had another peak, of course, in January of 2022 and then assuming the rhythm continues unabated or without any extensive expansion or contraction, we should be looking to the January 2024 time period from the next high in the cycle. Every one of these highs has been absolutely pronounced on the charts. So Larry, that's telling me, January 2024, be alert for the potential for another major cycle high. Okay. Now, as we go into that time period and things change, well, I'll modify my views accordingly, but right now that's January 2024 high looks very, very compelling. Yeah, it's really strange that that was the old knife contract. We used to have in New York and it just went by the wayside with the Dow Jones because they wouldn't advertise and the other guys did and that's what made it go away. The knife was great. Yeah, I used to trade that a lot. The margin was lower than the S&P. And I mean, you got the same percentage moves. And no work for a lot lower cost. Yeah, it was great. And then for some crazy reason, it went away. I guess it just wasn't enough volume. Yeah, crazy to that sounds. Now, the New York comp is broken below. It's 50 week moving average. It would not surprise me when we get to the intermediate cycle bottom, which I'm expecting in about six weeks time, to stab it's 200 week MA, that's that red line coming uphill. And we could perhaps see a modicum amount or breach of that, but I think it will generally be supportive. What's ongoing right now is what I call your garden variety, intermediate cycle decline. Yep, they've been saying that for several weeks and you said it would be sometime in October is what you told me. I remember that was. Yes, the latter part of October 1st of November, my work says October 30th to November 1st, November 2nd right in there with November 1st kind of shaping up is the midpoint of that three to four trading day range. This is a cycle that I have tracked for years. I wrote an extensive article for it in the journal for the foundation for the study of cycles a couple of years ago. It is the dominant cycle on the weekly chart. I call it the primary weekly cycle and it contracts, it expands, but when one plots the data does a regression analysis of the time series. The peak in the histogram falls at 33, 34 weeks. 34, of course, being a Fibonacci number. That's equivalent to eight months. Also a Fibonacci number. No surprise there, and that's what it is. Now, sometimes this cycle is expanded by 1.382. Sometimes it contracts. But what's interesting is when you get an expansion and you get a contraction, it takes it right back to its original beat. So for example, during this time here where my cursor is highlighting, the cycle expanded to 49 weeks. The subsequent was 20 weeks. You add the 1.382 plus 0.618, you get 2.00 and then it picked up the regular heartbeat once again. And that's what cycles do. They'll expand, they'll contract, but after a couple iterations, in my experience, they get back to their original heartbeat. And assuming the pattern does not expand or contract much beyond the statistical norms, I'm looking for the next low right around the tail end of October 1st of November. So we've got, what's that about? Very good. Five weeks or so we got. Five weeks, of course. We came up and down during that time. I have a question when you talk about these numbers expanding, like I look at 127, I only give it 1%. I believe in these numbers so much. If it goes beyond 1.27, I don't have anything to do with it. I get out and wait for 1.618. Do you do the same thing? Well, good question. And here's how I answer that. I don't put a fixed number out of the blue on it. What I do is I do a regression analysis of the entire data that I have under study. And we got some music coming, so why don't we pick this up? Cover that, yeah, that's great. That was a great question and I'll have a great answer. I mean, we'll be right back with Stan Harley, folks. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights, your key to successful, active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. Tom publishes his daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open, along with updates when warranted. Stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox.  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The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus, please contact Direction Shares at<PHONE_NUMBER>. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors, such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Okay, we're back folks, talking with Stan Harley and Harley Stock Market Letter as the market keeps moving lower and lower. Go ahead, my friend, please continue. Absolutely. Let's pick up with the daily charts and then I can answer your question that you asked me a moment ago here by addressing this. In the last few months, you and I have talked about a couple of market cycles that have dominated the daily chart. One is 80 trading days, which by the way, that's the same number that defines the monthly pattern. It's, there's some Thibonacci math that goes with it, but that same numeric applies not only to the monthly charts, but the daily charts as well. And that's done a pretty good job of defining all of the highs. And then separately there's a 53 trading day cycle that you and I've discussed in the past that also has done a, Dan, you have a job defining the lows. Those two cycles actually are related. Two 80 trading day cycles is equivalent to three 53 trading day cycles. So if you take 80 times two, that's 160, divide by three, you get 53. So these two cycles are related by two to three or three to two depending on what's in the numerator and the denominator. But going back last few years, one can see those cycles have been the dominant function defining the stock market. Going back to the left here, a little low time period here was 53 trading days, 56. Then it reverted to 80, 79, 81, that's the 80. Then back to the 53 day count here. And assuming, and then the last one, when you and I discussed this in mid-August, I think I was on the air with you around the 14th or so of August, I recall I said. It was the 14th of August, yes sir. 53 day low here within the next couple of days. And it occurred on the 18th of August. And assuming the pattern continues, the next recurrence is due ideally right around the 1st of November, October 30th or so. Well, here I can answer the question. What I've done here in my spreadsheet is I have put all the dates from the prior chart into a spreadsheet, built a model and done what's called a regression analysis, which finds the best mathematical fit to all of the data points. And what it computes is a cycle that's 53 trading days. And then this little number right here is the answer to your question to me five minutes ago. How do we determine what kind of variance to give to a Fibonacci function or a cycle? Well, I look at the historical standard deviation. And that is the best thing anyone can possibly do from a mathematical perspective. The standard deviation on this cycle is historically is 2.2 trading days. So I know to look one, two, or at the extreme three trading days, I mean, three standard deviations to look for the next recurrence in this cycle. And if it goes beyond three, then clearly the cycle is expanding or it's contracting or maybe it's just gone away all together and cycles do that. They have little nuances, they're a great tool, but they also have these little quirks that we need to be mindful of. Absolutely. Usually when I go in the air with you, they stop working. Listen, hey, Dave, time out, time out. You've been very good, Stan. You've not been, you know. When this market turned, you said it was going down. Hey, Larry, I've shown you this 53-day cycle that the cycle guides are tuned in to TFNM.  I think they weren't tuned in last month, so hey, we lucked out. There's only, the thing we got going for us is only 10 people listening to us and five of them are at work, so we're okay. Hey, listen, you do good work, so don't go, you know, I know you're joking about it, but you really do good work. So you can see at this chart here, we're gonna look at the Lucas series now and this is another one that looks real interesting, yes. Yeah, this is a busy chart and if we get some commercial, we'll pick up after the fact, but let's continue now. This is a chart right through the present timeframe, going back to the October low of last year and I have marked with the 53 trading day lows, as you can see on the chart. The next one is due right around October 30th, November 1st, that's also the time period in which that 33, 34 week cycle low is due, that we showed earlier in the presentation. So, oh my gosh, that's putting together a very compelling case for a significant low to occur there. Now, in the near term, I think we have a low coming up around October the 6th, which is the end of next week. Why do I say that? Well, a lot of short-term Fibonacci-Lucas work. Let's take a look at the Lucas pattern here from the October lows of last year. Notice this, 76 trading days from that low, 76 is the Lucas number, lined up exactly with the February 2nd high. And if you double number 76, you get 152, that lined up within two trading days in the May 1st high. The next Lucas number is 199. If you add 199 to the October 13, 2022 low, you get August one. The Dow peaked on August one. The S&P topped three days earlier on July 27. The next number in the series is 246, which is two times Lucas 123, and that lines up with October 6th. So I'm theorizing we're gonna get a low in the vicinity of October 6th, and then a subsequent low on November 1st. The next Lucas number after that is 322. And if you add 322 to the October low of last year, that lines up with January 26, 2024, which happens to align with the subsequent 53 day cycle and the 24 month cycle in the New York composite that we showed back at the beginning. So you've got three cycles congregating in the late January 2024 time period. This low to low function of 53 trading days is due at the same time. Well, you've got one saying a high, you've got one saying a low. Something's gonna have to invert. I think it will be this 53 trading day low to low pattern, which has historically marked lows. I think the next recurrence will invert and it will mark a high. And I think that high could be a very significant high in the stock market. They could last for a long time. But in the near term, I'm looking for a low towards the end of next week. And then another low, a divergent low I'm calling it, right around the 1st of November, you'll see perhaps most stocks bottoming on October 6 and then maybe a fewer number of bottoming around November the 1st. That divergent low, I think will mark the orthodox cycle bottom then from there. I think we'll chug a log higher into January. That sure looks good. I certainly looks just absolutely mathematically as clear as it can be. We have to watch October 6th and November 1st. That's clear enough. So what we're going to do is we're gonna have you on sometime before November 1st. I can promise you that. By the way, how do you like living in Virginia now? Love it a lot. Thank you. I've liked Virginia for a long, long time. Visited here back when I was in the Navy many years ago and the northern part of Virginia is just gorgeous. Rolling mountains, the Appalachian Trail runs up through here, the Shenandoah Valley. That's very good. Great place. Hey listen, we're having you on again soon Stan. So thank you so much for being on and be safe and keep in touch, okay? My pleasure, look forward to it. Stan Harley, the Harley stock market letter folks, really a stand up guy and got great information. We certainly enjoy having him on. So we'll be having him on again very, very shortly because he's got some great stuff. We'll be right back for it. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First-time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den. Hosted at Discord, TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Yeah, for some reason I don't know how to do this but we'll get up here for a second. I thank Sam Harley for being on folks. I see something very similar to the negative interest rates going on right now. I'm probably 100% wrong, but you know, I've been 100% wrong before but the good part of this folks, I'm never 200% wrong. It's only 100% and it stops there. And I'm gonna share it with you tomorrow. It may work, it may not, but boy, look at this. I said, my God, this is as clear as anything on my face that I can see. Two and a half years ago when Mitchell was five years old, that's Sarah's, he was, he's nine now, so that was three years ago. He, I gave him $100 for his birthday on June the 12th, okay? And I said, look, I'm gonna take this $100 and I'm gonna keep it for you, it's your $100 but you're gonna have to pay me $1 a week so that I keep it for you. He says, why would I do that? He said, I can keep it myself and not pay you a dollar. I said, yes, but I'm gonna keep it for you. Well, where are you gonna keep it? I said, I don't keep it in my pocket. He said, how will I know I get it back? He said, I don't know if you're gonna get it back or not. He says, I think I would rather keep it in my pocket than in your pocket, that way I always have it. And folks, that was the end of negative interest rates. Once people started to think that way, that was it. And folks, I see it again and I see it as clear as a bell and I've got some examples of it, may or may not work, but if I'm right, it's gonna be a flat out shock. And I was gonna do it today. I'm glad that Stan didn't have, I was Stan was on the show, so I didn't have to do it and Earl was nice enough to call in. So it kept me from doing it.  I get out of the trades, but these markets are acting negative and I'm just telling you that just be real careful in here, folks. We could have an outlier of it come in here that would say, oh my God, this is why the market's going down and then the door to get out ain't gonna be open. 877-9766-48. Mike Moore tomorrow, folks, live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may God bless. Building wealth, trading in the stock.