In today's video, we're opening a first edition Legacy of Darkness 36 pack booster box. All right guys, Legacy of Darkness first edition booster box. We will be opening this live for you guys unless you are watching on a YouTube video. You missed the live, but don't worry. We have the opening for you here today. If you are here in the live, you are one of the special few who gets to see it go first. So let's crack this thing open 36 pack retail box. This is a pretty rare item. So enjoy it while it lasts, which is about five more seconds. Here we go. There it goes. Not even five seconds, five milliseconds. Hope you guys are enjoying the video. We have a giveaway. I'll be giving away these three Legacy of Darkness cards. All you have to do is like the video, be subscribed, turn on notifications. Let me know down below your favorite card out of Legacy of Darkness and your favorite poll from this video. Starting on us starting us off, I should say we have Jeremy B with two packs. Send me some luck right now in the chat guys. Send me and also Jeremy some luck. He's looking for a secret rare. Do you guys remember what happened to Magic Ruler? One pack magic secret rare. So will it happen here? Look at that card. That card's got some stuff on the back. Can we start it off just as hot? Let's find out. Injection Fairy Lily. We are searching for you. Nutri and Z warrior digreffer. The dragon dwelling in the cave. We've got some nice LOD 2003 Yu-Gi-Oh card. 20 years old at this point. Spirit invitation. Front Seer Wiseman. We have Super Rejuvenation. Possessed Dark Soul.  Ew. We're not starting it off quite as well. This is one of the best rares in the set. First edition bottomless trap hole rare. That's a pretty cool card. It is not in fact a hollow though. So we're still going to be looking. There's a lot of hollows in 36 pack boxes. We're looking at like anywhere from 8 to 10. It's kind of the range. I would say 9 is the most common number of foils you're going to get. Second pack magic. 1, 2, 3, 4. He's 0 for 1, but he got bottomless trap hole. Let's see if he can get something better right here. Spirit's invitation. Twin headed wolf. Enaba. White rabbit. Attacking directly on dual links. Bubble crash. Oh no. The Yu-Gi-Oh cards. Burst breath. Front Seer Wiseman. We have Super Rejuvenation. Come on Jeremy. Possessed Dark Soul. One more card. We have bottomless. What are the chances? No.  It's not the best rare. I guess the best rare is royal oppression, right? So it's still a really good one. Next up guys, it's a bottomless amount of bottomlesses. Exactly. Race P with 1. I put two dashes there for some reason. Just noticed that one pack magic. So far, no foils. We're still looking for some good stuff. Just started. We still have 34 packs left remaining. Here we go. Race P. We have Nutrient Z. Race. Let's go. We have the dragon dwelling in the cave. I was going to say the race dwelling in the cave. Spirit's invitation. We have Spirit Ryu. Spiritual Energy Settle Machine. Super Robo Lady. She's super. Troop Dragon. And one pack magic. Oh, it's royal oppression. Speak of the devil. We have the rare we were just talking about. This is the best rare in the box. So unfortunately not a hollow, but look, it's not a foil. So you do get a bonus foil and you get the best rare in the set. So it could be worse. Could be worse for sure. If you're not going to get a foil, that's the one you want to get. Not a lot of one pack magics today. We'll say that. I think this is the last one. Austin and him with one pack magic. It did sell out really fast. So it makes sense when they're a bunch of one pack magic, it takes a little bit longer. Best comments. I don't think there's any crazy high value comments. Look at that sintering. This is the thing we got to look at. Legacy of Darkness. Sintering is oftentimes really, really terrible. But if it's centered, they're very, very valuable. So if we get the foil center, it'll be great. We have 107 weapons, lizard soldier, puppet magic of dark ruler, gray wing, the wing of gray can attack twice with mysterious guard, stamping destruction, spring of rebirth. And finally we have, oh no, not finally great long news, a short print by the way. So that actually could be a valuable one and a dragon's beat. It's been all traps, all traps in the rare slot so far. No foils yet. We're four packs in no foils. Next up we have Leo B, the five packs, rucks and special, the lily. All right. Woodland sprite bringing back terrible memories from the, the dueling stays, dragon's gunfire, wing bead of giant dragon, dragon manipulator, bad reaction to smoggy. Let's get Leo something good. Robo lady, serpentine princess spirit, Ryu, a lot of spirits in here, a lot of drag. It's not even a spirit to dragon and magic reflector. We're still looking. We're still looking. Oh, we're still looking. 30 more likes. So we had to order. Let's go. We need the support guys. Leo, he has five packs. He's got to get something good, right? Is this our first foil? We are a lot of packs in like five packs in. We have the gentleman, legendary ocean. That's a pretty classic field spell. Robo yaru, fiend, comedian, har har har. We have clown, hardly clear water, ominous fortune telling mysterious guard. Isn't this it? I think it is our first foil of the opening Ryu sent you. Centering is looking like legacy of darkness. Unfortunately, let's see. Yeah, it's pretty off center. We're hoping to get something that's not like this because a lot of the time they're pushed way over there. And it seems like rice and she is like that. But our force foil, that's a pretty good one. A goat format, extra deck card, pretty solid. We'll take it. Leo looks like it's working out chat. Keep it up. Keep sending us luck. One, two, three, four. Can we pull the injection fairly early? Illusory gentleman. We have a legendary ocean. Come on, Leo, Robo yaru, fiend, comedian, har har har. We have Ryu Kishin clown, hard of clear water, ominous fortune telling, mysterious guard and the A forces. Okay, word digraph for artwork. Very cool. But unfortunately, not a foil. Two more chances, guys. We can do this. Let's go. We have wolf. We have bubble crash, robotic night. We have devil snap, devil snap, Robo lady. We have princess, spirit, Ryu. We have spiritual energy, settle machine and Oh, it's win headed behemoth. Centering is consistent with the rice and she, but this is a really cool card. The once per duel effect, right? Once per no, not once per duel. Sorry. Once per match. No, not match. Once per game. Once per is a dual considered one of the three. How? What do you consider that? Or because a match is all three, like best out of three, but a duel is you're doing somebody is that best out of three or is it just the one? I don't know. Let me know. Let me know. That's a confusing. Okay. Very confusing. All right. One, two, three, four. Here we go. Convulsing of nature. We have wooden sprite. Final pack for Leo. Dragon's gunfire.  We have settled machine, super robot lady, troop dragon and Oh, oppression. That's a great way to end it. So he gets the best rare and he gets two supers. Honestly, not a terrible opening. You get an ultra, which is obviously what you're really looking for. Ultra secret, but I mean, two supers and a really nice rare is not too shabby. So Leo Congrats. I'm getting a couple of nice cards there. Goldies here. Tim H with three packs. Tim H. Here we go. Tim H. We have a wolf axe, bitter secrets of the bandit, 107 weapons, lizard soldier, stamping destruction, spring of rebirth, the great long notes, short print. We've got two of them already. Throw some unit and here's the foil potentially. Oh, the dragon's bead. Not the way you're looking for. We'd rather have bottomless or royal oppression. Probably one, two, three, four. Dragon manipulator for Tim. We have life absorbing machine. It's Parasect. Watch out or Paris or Paris. Not Parasect because later he's been taken over. Emergency provisions. We have bandit. We have mirror, darkness, a faint plan, skull night number two, and let's surfine. We got my champ before he gets super buff. He's just ripped here. This is my champ before he goes into bulk. The bulk phase. Will he get last pack magic for himself? We have disappear puppet magic of dark ruler, gray wing. His wings are kind of white actually. I don't know. Ready for intercepting super robo yaru, bark of dark ruler, wing minion, burst breath and ultra rare. Speaking of the dark ruler, dark ruler Hades. That is beautiful. Oh yeah, we've done it. Dark ruler Hades. That's going to get a double sleeve actually. Beautiful, beautiful card. That is amazing. Dark ruler Hades. Look and fire. Next up, this might get us to half. We have Andruel with four packs. Don't forget to subscribe to the channel if you guys are enjoying. Make it happen. One, two, three, four. We will have more box breaks and more openings in the future. If you guys are interested in a box break, we do have Ferrana Guardian available right now.  Check it out in the YouTube community tab. Here we go. Dragon manipulator, life absorbing machine, greatest option, fortune telling, mysterious guard, stamping destruction, spring of rebirth and a dart ball for the terrible right off the bat. Getting a super rare. These fusions are some of the best supers in the set. Centering is looking pretty off as well. So we're kind of on the off centered train as LOD does to us. Next pack, Andruel. Let's go. Here we go. Bubble crash, robotic knight. We have devil snare, devil snare, soul demolition, throw stone unit, super robot Yaru, bark and dark ruler, wing minion, and the A forces. All right. Another A forces. That's not royal oppression. That's what we want. We have two so far. So we can't really complain because rares are, you don't get them that often because there are so many different ones. Third pack, Andruel, double snare. We have soul demolition, convulsion of nature, wilderness sprite, skull nine, number two, dragon's range, re-kitchen clown, heart of clear water. Can we go two for three? Oh, it's a creature swap. Lewis. Oh, but it is not centered. Unfortunately, it is an ultra, but the sintering man that is LOD sintering. If I've ever seen it ultra rare. We pulled one for Lewis. I mean, it's for Andrew, but Lewis was looking for one centered because he needs a PSA 10 and that's not going to get it. Unfortunately, but I mean, honestly, Andrew is doing really good. He's got a creature swap, which is a great go format card. Don't bother the terrible, which is also a pretty good go format card as well. Still have not pulled a lily. Can we get one? Convulsion of nature. We have wooden sprite, dragon's gunfire, winged beaded dragon, burst breath, frontier wise men, possessed dark soul, super rejuven and it's a shadow tamer. But Andrew well two for four, being an ultra and a super honestly did pretty well. That's not bad. Next up we have, here's a big one. Alex H got 12 packs. So Alex H went a little crazy here. He went ham. There's still another eight packs after this. So we have 20 packs left. Here we go. Injection fairy lily retail box here. Let's see if we can pull one dragon's gunfire, winged beaded giant dragon, dragon manipulator, life absorbing machine, patrician of darkness, a faint plan, skull nine number two, dragon's rage and the second coin toss for all those joey wheelers out there. We're trying to flip coins. Next pack. This is kind of the difference between the retail, because if you got 12 packs in a hobby box, it would be half the box. This is only a third of the box because there's so many more packs, 12 extra. In fact, bubble crash. We have robotic night, double snare, soul demolition. We have fushinotori, bad reaction to smochie, Robo lady, serpentine princess and. All right, we're over to where you're returning alive. Not a great star for Alex, but he does have 10 packs left. Here we go. The illusory gentleman, legendary ocean, Robo Yaru. We have fiend comedian, great long notes. Another short print. That's three of them. Throw stone unit, super Robo Yaru. These are centered comments actually.  I thought there was one more drop off. Super rare, not centered, not centered at all. This is actually a really interesting card.  It's kind of annoying, but I don't know how crazy it is. It's like interesting. It's like decent. I don't know. It's a one for one. So sometimes if you hit the right thing, it can be great. Okay, Alex, you are one for three. It's not a bad start. Can you get two in a row? We have disappear. Puppet magic, dark role. We have gray wing. Let's get that injection. Very Lily ready for intercepting. Super rejuvenation. Send me that luck in the chat guys right now. Send it to me. Send it to Alex. Let's go. Bad reaction to Smoky Robo Lady, serpentine princess. Can we get that secret rare injection fairy Lily? Oh no, it's an ultra. Uh, is that centered? This thing's, it's not bad. You know, Kagu Sushi, check out that center. Okay, it's worse the more I look at it, but it's, it's better than the others. That's for sure. It doesn't look bad.  You know, Kagu Sushi ultra rare. I feel like I pull that one every time. Back to back foils is pretty good. Gray wing. Come on, Alex, send that luck guys ready for intercepting. Secret of the bandit. Dragon's rage. Dragon range. Watch out. Hard to clear water and ominous fortune. Oh wait, wait, that's not a rare and one more. There's a rare. We're returning alive. Okay. Had a few of those in this box. A lot of the same rare as it seems like warrior digrefer. We have the dragon dwelling in the cave. Spirit's invitation. Twin head of wolf. Front zero wise man. Burst breath. We have possessed dark soul. Super rejuvenation and blast with chain. This always reminds me of kunai with chains. It's very similar in that regard. Okay. No, not that one, two, three, four, five, six. Yeah, we've opened six. Okay. Halfway through for Alex. Gotta believe everybody. One, two, three, four that we can get that secret rare. So far two foils out of six packs. A little bit better than standard. Okay. Twin head of wolf. Let's see if we can do it again. Bubble crash. Robotic night. Double snare. We have feng shing mirror, patrician of darkness, a faint plan, cave dragon, and another super fiend skull dragon. We got fiend skull. We got dark balter and we got rice inchy. We got all of the fusion supers. That's pretty cool. Centering. This is more like good for LOD, but not good for everybody else centering. So it's getting a little better. Here we go. Okay. All right. Didn't spoil it. I don't think maybe I did ready for intercepting. We have nutrient Z warrior digreffer. Come on. Throw stone union. He's got three foils already out of seven packs. He's killing it. Dark ruler, wing minion, and machamp machamp's back out. Speaking of poker ox, machamp is returned. If we can get the secret, he's really going to be happy. Soul demolition. We have the convulsion, sprite, gunfire, skull nine, number two, dragon's rage, reekish and clown, hard to clear water. Yeah. It's not the eight forces array of revealing light. Another word digreffer card. He was literally the superstar of this set. He was everywhere. One, two, three, four, hit that like button. Let's pull injection fairy lily right now. Hundred with seven weapons, lizard soldier, puppet magic of dark ruler, gray wing, dragon's rage, reekish and clown, hard to clear water, ominous pull two of those. No, we didn't. Okay. I want us fortune telling and another array. That's back to back. Okay. Same card. Two packs left. Alex, let's get you something. Dragon's gunfire. Come on. Giant dragon, dragon manipulator, rucks and special. We dropped that card. Life absorbing machine looks like it's okay. I'm misfortune telling mysterious guard, stamping destruction. We have spring of rebirth and we have after genocide, first time seeing this card before the name change. One more pack for Alex. One more pack, everybody. Here we go. One, two, three, four, his last chance to pull the IFL dragon manipulator. Here we go. Life absorbing machine. Loser gentleman. Come on, Alex. We do she battery action. Robo lady, serpentine princess. We have a all advocates the accounting. No, not like this. Okay, Alex. Thank you so much for being in it. Three out of 12 is actually normal ratio. He got actually exact normal ratio. He got the ultra in 12 packs and he got two supers to get the three foils kind of wild actually that that happened. All right, we have eight packs left. Oh, wait, we have one more. One more one pack magic. We have Kaewon is back at a Kaewon S with one pack. Here we go. Hit that like button for luck for Kaewon. If you one pack magics this injection fairy Lily. Oh my gosh, three, four, can you one pack magic and injection fairy Lily? We have Robo Yaru. Let's go. Fiend comedian. Make it happen. Wolf axe wielder. Secrets of the bandit. Spirit Ryu. Spiritual energy settle machine. Super Robo lady. Troop dragon and oh, it's a Seuss of soldier. First time seeing that just a rare. We're back at it with the rares. Kaewon. Thanks for being in it. You're going to get a bonus foil. We got Glenn and he has two packs. All right, Wolf axe wielder. We have secrets of the bandit. Let's get something for Glenn. Hundred seven weapons. Lizard soldier. Wing minion. Burst breath frontier. Wiseman possessed dark soul. And finally we have the chain. Okay. Okay. Blast with chain. One more pack for Glenn. We have the hunter with seven weapons. Lizard soldier. Disappear. Puppet magic of dark ruler. Fang shing mir. Patricia of darkness. A faint plan. Skull nine number two and second coin toss. We need a second coin toss on that pack to give us a little bit more luck. But that leaves us with five more packs and they're all by one person. Anthony are five packs. If you guys are interested in the next box break, check out ruxin34.com for fronic guardian 36 pack first edition box. If you're a member, special footage or above, you get $10 off each pack. So don't forget about that if you are a member. Let's go. Send him luck in the comments as well. Neutron Z warrior digreffer. Dragon's welling in the cave. Stamping destruction. Mysterious guard. Springer rebirth. Great long notes. That is a short print. Apparently pulled four of them. So I don't know if it is and the fusion sword. Mersame blade starting it off with the rare four to go. Anthony are your second pack spirits invitation. Come on.  We have bubble crash throw stone unit. Robo yard dark ruler wing minion and the opti globs first time pulling this one eyed fiend three packs left. Oh, come on. Soul demolition. Convulsion nature. Come on. Anthony sprite gunfire robo lady troop dragon feng shing me or we have patrician of darkness and no, how many foils have we pulled eight? I think we have only pulled eight, right? Is that right? I don't remember exactly two packs left. Got to be something right. Got to be. I've lost count of how many foils we have. Anthony are. I hope that what we know is we don't have a secret. So we either want a secret or fourth ultraman will be somewhat happy. Second, the last pack of the box. Robotic night. Anthony are sending him all the luck you have in the chat guys. We've got to get the secret rare injection fairy lily. Let's go. Robotic night. We've double snare soul demolition. We have Convulsion nature burst breath frontier wise been. Will it be that injection fairy lily we've been searching for? Here we go. One more card. Superjuvenation. Here we go. The secret rare injection fairy lily has been pulled second to last pack magic. Anthony are congratulations. Let's go. What a way to end it. Oh my goodness. That is how you do it and check out that beautiful LOD sintering secret rare. Unbelievable. Yes, we did it. Anthony are. Let's see if you can finish off with an epic ending. If you get a secret and an ultra here as well, you're going to be ballin. Let's go. One, two, three, four. Let's see if you can do it.  I believe it can happen. It can happen guys. Spam in the comments. Drag manipulator. Life absorbing machine. Gradius option. Gradius is with two s's. Interesting. A faint plan. Cave dragon. Skull night number two. Dragon's Rage is this it. This is the final card of the opening. If you guys enjoyed the video on YouTube or the live, make sure to subscribe to the channel for more epic content like this. Maybe not this lucky. We'll have to see, but maybe it'll happen. Last pack magic. He can only get luckier here. Maybe. Oh, another foil. It's not an ultra, but an exiled force. One of the best cards in the set in terms of playability. Exiled force. Super rare. What a way to end it, Anthony R. Huge congrats on that amazing secret rare. Shout out to Tomahawk show, Dakster, Tomato Juice, Puffin's the Doomer, Nestor, Deanna, America, Deoyser, Springstage, 21, CJ, Liu, Gwine, 62, Yu-Gi-Oh, Unboxed, and Anatai Show, Ian Moosa, Jr. Bartik, Robert F. Thomas, Belklane, and Changa Lang. Thank you guys for supporting the channel. And I'll see you guys in the next one. Peace.


Okay, I'm keen to have the discussion now about demographic trends, yeah, and I'm really happy to open up with Professor Axel Börsch-Supern, who is the director of the Munich Center for the Economics of Aging at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy. I hope I brought the name fully, yeah, and correctly, excellent, I thought so, yeah. We will hear a little bit about demographic trends in the euro area countries and what they imply, among other things, for the economic growth, for employment, and in particular for capital flows, yeah. And his paper will be discussed by Professor Anna-Maria Meider, who is an associate professor at Georgetown University, and like always, after we have the presentation and the discussion, we will have a Q&A, and I'm pretty sure it will be as lively as the last one, because they are very interesting, I think, conclusions coming out of your presentation. And you will talk about migration, I heard, which is for sure something what is very interesting and very important right now, too. So please, the floor is yours, Axel. Thank you. Thanks a lot. It's not only an honor, it's also fun to talk in this audience and to celebrate with you the achievements of having the euro for two decades. Now I have the modest talk task of talking about the next four decades of the euro area, and I will do this by focusing on demographic changes, a little bit on migration, and quite a bit more on economic growth. So let me start. There will be a lot of slides. What is population aging? For the next two decades, it is not so much the shrinkage of the population. That will happen in the third and fourth decade from now. It's more a shift of shares of the different cohorts, age brackets, within a fairly steady population size. Now if you look, that is best measured as what we call the old age dependency ratio, and you see in the upper left hand corner, this is the number of people 65 and over divided by the number between 20 and 64. You can change this to a similar number, it doesn't really matter, and you see four countries. So there's obviously Japan, we all know as the oldest country on top, and below are the two front runners in terms of youth, China and the US, and you see interestingly China is now the youngest but will actually give place to the US, and the euro zone is in the middle. And if you look at the orders of magnitude, then they're huge, right? You have about five young people to one old in China right now, and it's two to one in Japan, huge changes in between. Now the interesting thing, that is sort of a first message, the euro zone is so heterogeneous it almost fills the entire place between China and Japan. So the heterogeneity of demographics is huge within the euro zone. Now why is that so? You can spend all kinds of details here, I tried to make the story short. There are some countries where you had a very sharp transition from the baby boom to the baby bust. These are the apologies, Germanic countries, including the Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, and also China for a different reason, Chairman Mao greeting you, also has very sharp transitions between boom times and boost times. So that's one group of countries. Another country is more of the Mediterranean ones, for a long time had low birth rates in high life expectancy, that's why they have the largest proportion of older people. And then there are some countries like France, Sweden, the Scandinavian countries and the US which have an increase in life expectancy but no decline in fertility, essentially no decline in fertility. So these are three very different patterns and that explains some of the variety of demographic trends. Now the aim of sort of looking at the next four decades seems crazy given these long time horizons. So one important question is how reliable are actually these projections and as you will see it's quite different from the world in which you are a central bankers. So what we actually see is that for the next 10, 20 years the bandwidth of different projections is fairly low. Now this is taking all kinds of combinations between low and high fertility, low and high migration and so forth. You take the two extremes which are at the top and the bottom and you see they do fan out but we are now talking very hard for you, probably, to read until 2060, so a long time ago. If you go for the next say 20 years then it's for sure that the Eurozone will age. This is actually showing the fans for Germany but for the Eurozone it's the same. And the most important message here is it will not be a temporary phenomenon. So even in the best of circumstances there will be a plateau which we reach about in 35, 2040 but it's not a temporary phenomenon which go away. So any kind of policy which tries to sort of dig a tunnel under the demographic mountain will fail. The tunnel will never reach the light. Either by some grandiose demographic fund, that won't work, or if you try to fund the pension, the healthcare systems by increasing debt and then try to repay it you won't have the chance actually to repay it. That's another important message to keep in mind. Population change is there to stay and it will change that world to a world where we have more older people. Now what migration help? That's my short only slide on migration and obviously it does make a difference. Now these are again for Germany you see three scenarios where you have migration of 100,000, 200,000, 300,000 per year in and out and you see it does make a difference but it makes only a small difference. Now obviously if you have huge migration and these are younger people who migrate in which is the typical kind of phenomenon then you can bring the odd age dependency down but you have to look at the numbers here. So to flatten out the curve the average for the next 40 years has to be 1.2 million per year. Now that is more than Germany had in 2015 so it's completely out of the question right? And this is only the average because aging is nonlinear actually at the peak it would be 2.1 million. So it's out of the question that migration will take care of population aging. The other one which is always asked what about a new baby boom? So rather than having 1.5 kids have more than two like the US had until recently. And again you don't have to think very long. Well if you look at the odd age dependency ratio which divides 65 to 20 to 64 you obviously don't see anything for the next 20 years right? Even if there were a baby boom right now it takes 20 years until they enter the labor market. So it won't help to adjust for the increase which we have. And even in the long run you see the same what you have seen earlier. Even with the much higher fertility rate you will just lower the plateau but not go back into a young world. So the issue is the demographic changes will be there independent more or less of migration and in the future baby boom. So let me move now from demographics to economics and show you the same picture in a different metric now the share of working age people. And obviously it's the same kind of figures just upside down. The point I want to make here is really economics 101. What happens in an aging economy you have if you look at GDP per capita just fewer workers per capita as the main input in an economy. And this will tell you that GDP per capita will be under pressure consumption and everything which you derive from GDP per capita. It's not as straightforward. So what we actually do is adapt a use a OLG model which computes GDP per capita consumption other macroeconomic aggregates and look how that will develop when we have fewer and fewer people in working age. Now the figures I show you and that's important are net of the general productivity trend. So what you see as a decline is a decline relative to a now let's assume exogenous productivity trend.  Now what you see is this is the decline of labor force per capita and the point to the first point I want to make is if you look at GDP per capita it will not decline as much and why so. Essentially this difference is explained by changing relative prices. Let me actually jump to the next point. You will see some increase in wages because there's a lack of young people so that drives wages up relative to that return to capital I mean return to productive capital will go down actually more than that and we'll talk about that later as well. Then of course drives endogenously some substitution of labor by capital robots whatever you imagine. And this substitution of young people by capital will actually generate a slower decline of GDP per capita than the labor force. So that's the first good news sort of endogenous adaptation thanks to higher capital intensity. Let's actually look at the difference in the growth rates here if you translate this over the long time this loss of GDP per capita relative to the exogenous productivity trend is about half a percentage a little less and that is again an important number if we think about productivity changes being in the order of one and a half percent or two percent then this is substantially lower. Now all the gloom about population aging doesn't mean that GDP is actually going down or consumption possibilities it goes down relative to a still growing trend now there's still even if you if you're a modest think about secular stagnation there's still some positive growth left and I again I think that that's an important message it's relative to productivity there's something left over. And if you look there there there there are two more graphs here and the first one is gross national income and the second one is consumption now you see gross national income is actually declining much slower than GDP per capita what is happening here now this oil G model is a multi-country model where you have as symbols for the for the Eurozone you have the countries Germany Italy and France and for the rest of the world I take the US as a simplification what happens in a world where the Eurozone ages much quicker than the in deeper than the United States there will be foreign direct investment going actually from Europe to the United States where you actually have a higher rate of return as long as the returns equilibrate in this model very simplistic model and then a part of the income in the Eurozone is actually generated outside of the of the Eurozone so you get a big divergence between gross domestic product and gross national income and that actually finances consumption for quite a while so what you see is that international capital flows are positive for quite a while you see turns around in the 2040s then eventually the baby boom will have sort of used those assets which have been invested in here in the United States rest of the world outside of the Eurozone repatriates that and then the the flow will reverse and that helps to actually stabilize consumption quite a bit more than even GDP per capita so there they're two endogenous largely endogenous adaptations which would happen one is higher capital intensity and the other one is international capital flows back and forth for some time right eventually this will also go down I put these circles around 2030 and you see the differences okay unfortunately there's still something left if you want to keep the growth not the level but if you want to keep the growth of GDP or capital or consumption as we have been used to how to fill that triangle well there's no endogenous adaptation here in the Marlin anymore you actually need policy to do so and I think it's pretty much a no-brainer these are sort of the typical policies recommended by the Commission by the OECD and so forth increased retirement age tried to get people earlier into the labor force increased female labor force participation everything which sort of helps to increase the pool of labor do something about unemployment and this is sort of a stylized reform and the interesting question is now these these are what I would call moderate steps it's not increasing retirement age from 62 in France to 69 it's two years people also quarrel about this but in the grand scheme of things and you and this is done in a in a in a time horizon of more than 20 years so it's a small change in every year anyway so this the question is can the modest reforms of this type actually fill that triangle and the answer is it depends let me first show if we think that labor supplies exogenous so all these changes imposed by policy will 100% be done and then you see that the the labor force per capita would still slightly decline GDP will slightly decline but recover and consumption more or less is stabilized now obviously I choose the parameters to achieve that exactly but this is exogenous labor supply now the next step I do is from a modeling point of view fairly complicated I endogenous labor supply and allow some substitution between the extensive and the intensive margin of labor supply so there will be a law change which requires you to work longer but you're actually able to for example within the family between between the two parts in the marriage to redistribute your your labor supply and there are other mechanisms you work less in somewhat less in older age but somewhat more in younger age if you allow these kind of substitutions you get in quite an astounding result which is that the that the reaction is actually fairly big right and a lot of the reforms will be undone I call this backlash effect you may want to give it a similar remark but it's not that easy if you have endogenous labor supply to actually force people to move out now this is calibrated to what has happened in the last 10 years in in the eurozone so maybe that effect over estimates what will happen in the future but you know all these resistances to working longer and this pretty much undoes the reform effects okay so if I take a short interim resume aging takes about one third of the growth in the in the eurozone but it's still the remainder still positive there are endogenous forces which sort of accommodate this and make it easier than than one may think in the in the first round but this will only happen these automatic adjustments will only happen we talked about this a little bit earlier in the in the session today if we actually allow digitization and higher capital intensity many urans are against it and we allow free capital mobility but within the eurozone and out of the eurozone which is the big big one so it's not completely automatically and it will be one of the the policy issues we have to think of moderate structural reform needs and can fill the remaining gap but the backlash may be large so avoiding backlash will be important thing okay let me pick up a point of which may interest you as central bankers and go back to the decline of the of the the not the interest rate but the rate of return to productive capital and most of you have heard of the the asset meltdown hypothesis which sort of is very blackish in predicting that exactly when the baby boomers need their savings most it actually will be devaluated and you do see this but it's it's important to recognize this depends very much on the openness this again is a simulation same olg model now using only Germany you see that the decline in rate of return is substantially lower if there's if Germany has a free fact capital flows within the EU and even less so within the OECD and if you add sort of global markets china india and the large asian country will be less depends a little bit on on the pension systems but these are details i i don't want to get into in any case what you see is not an asset meltdown but it is a decline in rates of return there's no doubt about that rates of return will decline particularly in in in relation to to the wage effects okay let me change scenery now now completely and actually go to to to the micro foundations of some of the stuff i'm i'm doing in the olg model one of the controversial assumptions is productivity stays exogenous now you could think actually that it's not the case because we have more older people older people are less productive as many think then obviously endogenously there will be another decline in in productivity not only because of quantity but also because tfp will actually decline now there is no evidence whatsoever we can find at least on what i would call shop floor product productivity over normal worker in a standard job now that's something special so there there there are many professions where age may help or age may hurt i think in central bank it's very different from athletes right we have the peak earlier the peak late but in the shop floor we we we don't see anything it's not easy to measure shop floor productivity that's why we need tons and tons of data this is in the automotive sector we did the same in in the service sector lots and lots of observations and essentially it's flat and it's made flat by the managers because they they actually sign people in a way that age effects are on on design flattened out and i think that's again an important message the the effect is on on aging on on GDP is essentially a quantitative effect and not so much a productivity effect i'm looking on the on the time so i would jump over this and again another change of scenery what what what i have talked about until so far and that's where my main expertise is is the real economy but here we are in zintop so i also do a little bit on on the monetary side now aging and inflation if you look at the at the literature on the demographic effects on on inflation and deflation it's a mess you get results in any kind of direction any kind of timing uh and we were quite irritated by that and so what we did is actually we augmented this oil g model by household's demand for money just some very primitive money in the utility so you you you have a demand for for cash holdings we have a central bank with a very simple tailor rule and then we we sort of push this model through the demographics again and the main insight in these somewhat complicated graphs is the blue line is inflation we don't really distinguish between expected and realized it's a very simple model but the the main point is we distinguish between two effects which happen one i call the size effect in the other one the structure effect now the size effect is uh if eventually populations shrink demand will decline aggregate demand and since supply is somewhat sluggish uh you get negative pressures on the inflation maybe not deflationary pressures but definitely dampening inflation so this is the intuition many people have about japan right uh but there's a second effect which is more subtle and more difficult to understand this is people the demographics is not linear it actually has the baby boom baby bust and the baby boom happens to be in certain stages of the life cycle and this is different from country to country now there there are times when the baby boom is still saving and then there are times when the baby boom will dissafe and actually consume much more and that changes again the structure of the pressure on aggregate demand obviously uh and depending on the country you get what we call the the structure effect and that can either amplify the size effect or work in attenuated work in the other way uh it's on top of it and it's usually smaller than the than structure effect but it modifies it quite a bit and now if you see the two countries which I have drawn here as outcomes very different uh so in Germany the both the structure and the size effect goes downhill and fairly soon crosses this uh the famous two percent uh threshold as the upper target of of the cb uh where's in France that won't happen and that of course reflects the different kind of dynamics it's even more so interesting if we look at the united states in china uh where uh you see that uh us is more like france uh where the inflationary pressures are relatively uh stable over time where it's in china you see this very quick decline and you see the the the population that's why I uh showed you in the very beginning the the two transitions between population growth and population decline thanks to chairman Mao and you see them reflected again in the in the structure effect here so let me finish my time is over and draw a final resume while all countries are aging timing speed and extent are very different even within the eurozone not to speak about globally the negative impact on growth can be dampened by endogenous reaction plus structural reforms we have seen this before product declining productivity and i jumped over the health care do not prevent reforms such as uh increasing moderately increasing a retirement age uh you don't see any kind of significant health changes between 65 and 67 on average stress on average and the final point is aging induced deflation effects uh strongly depend on demographic characteristics uh and it's a topic we talked a lot about yesterday heterogeneity within the eurozone uh is widespread and in many dimensions and demography is yet another uh dimension of strong heterogeneity which you will have to manage uh and i wish you good luck for that uh and thank you for your attention thank you okay good morning uh first of all i would like to thank the organizers for inviting me and for discussing this excellent paper and in this paper the authors analyze the macroeconomic implications of population aging on financial labor and goods markets they consider the eurozone and they use an overlapping generations model and they consider three different scenarios in the first scenario they keep uh labor force participation rates constant exogenous and they are the current ones and in this scenario we do see the population aging has a very big negative effect on GDP growth GMP growth consumption per capita in the second scenario what the authors do is to consider exogenous labor force participation rates but they set them equal to their rates identified by some labor market policy reforms for example increasing the retirement age by two years reducing the labor market entry age by two years and importantly i will go back to this point increasing women labor force participation and decreasing the unemployment rate and in this case what the authors find is that the negative impact of population aging can be mostly undone through these labor market policy reforms and so what the authors say is that demography is not destiny we can push back with policy reform but then very interestingly what the authors do is to consider an endogenous responses of economic agents in the third policy scenario in which labor force participation rates are endogenous and there what they show is that this backlash by workers and other economic agents in the economy can for the most part undo the positive effect of labor market policy reforms so in terms of the main drivers of population aging and the authors analyze for fertility rates, carbon and future ones, migration, the baby boom baby pass transition and the secular increase in life expectancy and i was tasked with considering the role specifically the migration can play with population aging in a context with population aging so i'm gonna start by discussing what i learned from the paper in terms of the role of migration and what i learned is that migration has been able to let countries avoid reductions in population sizes so it was predicted that Germany would experience a decrease in population for many years but that didn't happen and it was because migration was higher than expected but and this is the negative message from the paper about migration we also find from the model that even very large migration waves cannot undo the size effect of population aging so the reduction in the labor force and not even very extremely large migration wave can undo the structural effect of population aging so overall not a very positive message about the role the mitigating role of migration in terms of population aging and what the authors do and is to show these two charts that Axel showed you just a second ago i will go back to these charts but on the left hand side we have Germany and also on the right hand side but on the left hand side what the authors do is to consider different scenarios in terms of fertility rates mortality and life expectancy and they consider each of these drivers independent from each other and on the right hand side instead the authors consider different values of migration and the main point is that when the old age dependency ratio is kept constant is when we have flows of migrants which are politically unfeasible 1,200,000 as Axel said so my first point about this paper and in relation to migration is that my understanding of what the authors are doing is to consider the impact of migration through different sizes and age structures of migrants but truly migrants affect not only age of the current population but when migrants come in they also affect the fertility rate so i think that we should not consider these two drivers of population aging independent from each other some of the effect of increasing fertility rates should be causally assigned to the arrival of migrants so in some european countries fertility rates have increased in the last few years and that has been because migrants have arrived and they tend to have much higher fertility rates than they do so let me show you some statistics they're quite small but just to give you some examples in Belgium between 2001 and 2005 natives total fertility rate was 1.5 and the immigrant one was double it was three in Italy in 2004 the natives total fertility rate was 1.3 basically and again it was double for immigrants so basically when we go back to this left hand side chart and we look at what the impact would be of higher fertility rate higher migration we should really combine the effect of migration with some of the effect of a higher fertility rate and i'm curious what kind of numbers you would get by doing so next one of the big themes in my discussion will be that migration can affect the eurozone in the context of population aging through other channels than simply affecting the size of the labor force in different age structures so let me give you some examples and one is a channel that is still related to the labor market so there is very interesting research in the migration literature that low skilled immigrants have decreased the prices of low skilled intensive goods and services this is research and for example for the united states by Patricia Cortes in 2008 and some of these low skilled intensive goods and services are household related services for example childcare and so follow-up research shows that in the united states in italy in spain in those locations where low skilled immigrants went the labor force participation extent so the amount of work of highly skilled women increased so what is going on what is going on is that high skilled women have been able to outsource some of the household related tasks like childcare to low skilled immigrant women and so going back to what the type of labor market policy reforms that were analyzed by axon and the fact that we need to make these policy reforms viable real and we see that here immigration has played a very important role and actually i'm going to show you the example of italy in spain italy is represented by the red bars and spain is right next to it but italy in spain have very quite low women labor force participation rates and they are also the countries where it seems that and immigrants low skilled immigrants have been employed a lot in household related tasks and for these countries there is evidence about the link that i told you about so low skilled immigrants leading to higher amount of work by highly skilled women and of course low skilled immigrants don't only provide childcare services in the household they also provide for example elderly care services long term care services so they supply these services but of course population aging is going to affect the demand for these services the demand for long term care is going to increase a lot with population aging and we see that low skilled immigrants play a very important role by providing these services for which there is not enough supply of native workers and this is especially true in countries in southern europe that rely a lot on families on households as opposed to public and private institutions to provide long term care so again italy spain southern european countries but there is not much empirical evidence about this channel next population aging is going to affect the demand for healthcare services and again we see that here high skilled migrants have provided healthcare more and more in destination countries starting from the us the united kingdom but this is increasingly true in the eurozone area so for example in ireland almost half of the nurses in ireland are foreign trained and more than one third of the doctors in ireland are foreign trained and here you see some summary statistics for countries around the world in terms of the fraction of doctors and nurses who are foreign trained and these fractions are going up um next because i'm running out of time i'm gonna switch focus from um well already did from low skill to high skilled immigrants and i'm gonna talk about research that is growing about the impact of high skilled immigrants on innovation and productivity there is um robust evidence that high skilled immigrants have increased the level of innovation and patenting activity this evidence is for the united states but also for europe i'm working myself on data from france and we are finding we are confirming the same result high skilled immigrants promote patenting activity innovation that can take place through many different channels it might be knowledge flows from countries of origin it might be selection on observables so immigrants a lot of times at least in the united states tend to specialize in very technical fields and it might be mobility across firms that allows knowledge to flow across firms and it might be task specialization a lot of time highly skilled native workers tend to specialize in more uh administrative co type of tasks while um foreign highly skilled workers tend to specialize in research naturally and um so let me show you some statistics for the united states that are quite shocking i think in a good way that show you how much skilled migrants have contributed to innovation and and productivity in the united states so in 2047 percent of the stem workforce with phd's in the united states was foreign born and a quarter of patents originating between 1919 2000 from the united states were by were authored by foreigners and one quarter of us-based noble prize recipients between 1919 2000 were foreign born so you can really see that highly skilled migration is an engine of innovation and growth so let me conclude with a few sparse considerations which are as important um so first of all the authors talked about the role that fdi can plays a mitigating factor of population aging and there is now growing evidence about the fact that immigrants promote foreign direct investment i have myself worked on data on refugees for the united states who settled refugees and we do find that of course with a certain lag and there is a positive impact of resettled refugees in the united states on foreign direct investment back to the origin countries next and i want to briefly discuss what das manfakinen senorotto called the floridization of europe so the fact that there is this movement from the north to the south of europe of old age individuals and of course that is going to have macroeconomic implications in terms of health expenditures in terms of long-term care expenditures in terms of inflation and i think it would be interesting to introduce it in the model and finally i did not talk about the fiscal impact of migration which is of course related to um what axl talked about because it's usually the aspect of the interaction of population aging and migration that is more often discussed better known but i want to make two points about the fiscal impact of migration the first one is that immigrants not only tend to come in their prime working age so they're young not only they have higher fertility rates than natives but they also a lot of times are temporary migrants especially europe and so they tend to go back to their origin country exactly at the time when they would get pension benefits so it turns out that a lot of times they contribute to the pension system but they don't take back from it and if there are no portability laws between the destination and the origin country and finally i want to point out that the fiscal impact of migration varies a lot across studies across countries it depends of course on the on the assumptions that we make on participation rates of natives versus migrants and values as other assumptions and i want to show you a graph which is quite telling and so this is a graph from italy and it's from an official document of the current government one of the very first documents so even in a place where migration is very controversial the role of migration in reducing and fiscal problems is recognized so here you have three scenarios the dark green line corresponds to actual migration and it shows you the impact on the debt to GDP ratio so the debt to GDP ratio would go up in italy if migration were reduced by 33 percent basically the debt to GDP ratio was would almost double while if migration was increased by 33 percent the debt to GDP ratio would almost almost stay constant so i'm gonna conclude very quickly basically my point in this discussion was to say that i really enjoyed the paper that i've read and i learned a lot i wanted to bring in a discussion about what role migration can play and the role that migration can play is way more complex than the impact that the direct impact on the size and age structure of different parts of the population many thanks many thanks anna maria i will give i will give axel the opportunity to answer to some of the questions and comments made by anna maria and then i will give you the floor here in the in the auditorium okay i'll be short thanks a lot great discussion and i fully agree that i maybe we all have to study migration more it's complexity and all the feedback cycles which are involved just a couple points the high migration of the order i i draw how to flatten the the the aging profile is not only politically feasible it's infeasible period so many people won't come and anyway the the fertility effect the numbers you showed are the is the fertility of the incoming natives they actually adapt very quickly so after one generation you see essentially no fertility differences anymore so it helps quite right and it should be modeled but the effect is attenuated if you if you go in the long run then you have the i really like that the nanny effect let's call it the nanny effect that you improve labor force participation among high skilled women and i i would really like to see a sort of a quantitative estimate how much that great yeah and now in the following points you made i think it's very important to distinguish the indirect effect and the direct effect if if if we have more people working in long term care as their primary job that then i would call the direct effect because that's more people they get a job that is actually in the numbers the indirect effects are the interesting one like the nanny effect which which kind of top or the other one is the fdi channel that it makes fdi easier to to have because you you you can build on the networks which immigrants may may may work here final remark is on high skilled migration to my knowledge almost all of the high skilled migration say to italy or say to germany or to france is within eurozone and migration and very little comes from from abroad if i may call outside of the eurozone abroad that is somewhat different from from the situation of the united states which gets high skilled migrants from uh yeah across the pond i'm looking at the various mit graduates sitting here who most of them come from elsewhere right okay the uh so this but i agree that there there are more upsides of migration than i but there's also down down size downwards tensies integration costs are very high and germany now now sees this and whether the long run effects really outweigh the the integration costs right now is an open question they have been various studies in the u.s some some are a little bit positive some are a little bit negative but it's not as large an effect as you you want just because skilling these new immigrants especially what has happened in 2015 is quite a quite a bit of an effort but anyway thank you a lot very interesting discussion and many thanks to to axl and anna maria for sure my boss the watch tells me six minutes are left i'm already looking pleading for christine to give me another five minutes good 11 left but in order for everybody or not everybody but at least to have four or five questions i would ask you kindly ask you to keep very short question and short answer quick one please richard portes london business school i want to focus on the dependency support ratio story um and uh there are several qualifications i think you have to make to that the demographers have consistently underestimated the the rate of increase of life expectancy we know that uh why won't they continue to make that mistake why won't they have continued to make that mistake and what's more important healthy life expectancy is going up even faster than life expectancy because of medical advances so that's one factor that i think changes the picture so much the second factor is that um exogenous and dodgerness labor supply there's resistance to working longer sure but there are some strong counter railing forces one is the decline in pension incomes if you like the decline in replacement rate i think that's very likely over the i think most of the pension predictions say that and that will induce people induce people to work longer and the second point and the final point is that is a little more complicated over the past couple of decades with relatively stagnant real wages household incomes the the rise in household incomes has been driven by labor rising labor participation of women and there's a limit to that right however many nannies you may get in uh there's a limit to that and we're approaching that limit uh now given that and the rise in mean childbearing age you're going to have families well where earners are 65 say with children 25 20 25 um maybe 30 but still in need of the bank of mum and dad right and um that will be a further inducement for people to work beyond the age of 65 so i'm very doubtful about the the 65 year limit there i wanted to connect this excellent session to the first one yesterday about convergence i was uh so access showed uh wide diversity of aging process across the EU and as well as wondering whether uh what is the contribution of this diversity in the conversions or lack of conversions of EU countries uh this can go directly through the production function or consumption patterns but it can also go through um uh the median voter that ages at a different pace across countries maybe even the uh franco-german divide across the Rhine could partly be due to the different demographic patterns so i wanted to have your your views on that so accounting but also the political economy of this thanks anything and next to you then your growth center for european policy studies in brussels i thought that your presentation missed out one point which is very important in europe which is the upscaling of the skill level of the population because we know that higher skilled people have de facto always a much longer working life and a large part of the increase in the labor force labor force participation of the elderly which we have seen over the last years is due to the fact that the new cohorts coming into that age bracket have a much higher proportion let's say of university graduates and others and i have seen uh projection which say that that actually will offset the impact of demographic aging so my question is if you uh combine the demographic aging with the increase in the education level of the general population um you might get very different results so one more olivier these were two tremendous presentations thank you very much i was struck by the graph of showing the rate of return the decrease in the rate of return which i take to be the rate of interest safe and assume is determined by global saving and global investment in your mall if this is the case and everything we discussed in the last two days becomes very relevant which is that with such rates the issue of first the cost of debt but also the zero lower bound you know likely to be with us for a number of years okay and then i have one more at the end and then i will finish the questions and you you please have a short answer yeah but Charles got out there let's see um unusually richard is exactly wrong in his comments uh one of the one of the main problems of aging uh which was not mentioned and is going to be enormously increasing is dementia dementia is an exponential function of age and as the number of aged over the age of 80 increases the number of care workers will have to increase enormously it was an ft column that suggested in japan within 10 years 10 of the workforce will have to be carers and carers are not likely to have much in the way of productivity increases second point is that the increased participation of the elderly has already over the last 20 years increased enormously and it will be increasingly difficult to raise the participation rates of the over 55 by a much greater extent now the questions i have are twofold uh the first one is surely with the collapse or with the reduction of globalization and the reduction of the a number of young workers the bargaining power of labor which has collapsed with a continuing decrease in the number of uh members of private sector trade unions that the bargaining power of labor will come back with the vengeance and that will offset the deflate any of the deflationary pressures that you've been mentioning and my second question which is primarily at your discussant is if immigration is so benefit economically beneficial why is it so politically unpopular okay so axel would you like to start yeah and i try to be short uh richard uh we all agree that the uh 65 as a sort of a limit to all that dependency makes no sense uh and uh but this is not the driving force here we actually have uh in the olg model uh it's a flexible transition there's no fixed retirement uh except in the laws where then it's a band with now how people actually decide now what we have seen in pensions uh and the incentive to work longer that has worked fabulously so in the 80s and 90s we have seen very very low incentives to work longer and lower labor force participation that changed around the turn of the century and since then we have a rebound of of labor force participation among people 55 and over unfortunately since 2015 it goes the other way around and that is part of the policy backlash which which i i have tried to model uh so that may be turned around again but uh i have muted optimism that this will uh will will get quick given the political situation right now convergence uh well i think it goes the other way around and it will strengthen divergence and will not only have a rine uh with a bridge uh but also the alps right and it will rather increase and uh will certainly be part of the uh EU commission's work uh try to minimize these effects uh danya the uh the true if there were an upscaling of the skill level that could do a lot that runs counter the the the the current observation of a secular stagnation uh so we have seen the the the upscaling of skill levels in the last 15 years uh but if you look at productivity levels uh they uh they they seem to go down but there are all these measurement issues uh the big big big new debate uh but i i i'm somewhat muted on that uh on on on on that issue um olivier of course yeah the zero bound will be more of a and finally charles uh i uh i agree that uh dementia will be a big cost issue uh these models abstract from the health care system if you built in the health care system and rising costs uh so sort of to model a let me say american health care system as part of the eurozone luckily we don't have that then uh you you you you obviously see much more of a problem uh that has nothing to with labor supply uh indirectly but the the costs are just skyrocketing of long-term care uh with the bargaining of the uh of the younger generation uh in in terms of wages uh that is i would say so reflected in the increase in wages which you have seen on one of the slides and a maria would you like to add something yes so for long-term care i briefly touched on it um so long to actually cost will increase also because of lack of workers who want to provide those services and that's one of the aspects where low-skilled immigration can help and in terms of the final question my answer is going to be related to what uh jamaica was talking about in the previous discussion and just like trade migration can produce very large benefits but there are very uneven effects so um some groups may gain less or be hurt and so there needs to be way to redistribute some of these gains i should say that the literature on migration actually does not find evidence of these negative labor market effects and being substantial they're either zero or they're very very small and eventually the medium to long run they turn positive so this is the first answer income distribution effects the second answer is misinformation so when you look at survey data you see that a lot of people don't know don't have a clue about the number of migrants in their country and um so for example now arrivals to europe are going down and migration politically is becoming more and more important which is a paradox and um uh messaging i think is very important i think in terms of migration we have been very defensive in trying to uh rule out negative effects but we haven't done a good job in talking about the positive effects so a more assertive messaging about migration has has been done in the past not now in the united states well um a little bit i i'm so sorry it's not possible i'm already over my time for at least uh 10 minutes i think and you will not have any lunch yeah um i'm pretty sure you will you will have a good discussion over lunch and this afternoon we had the big topics here at the end you know we talked about inequality between the regions we talked about permanent transfer we talked about aging and migration yeah and from my point of view um we could have another afternoon talking about policy solutions yeah it seems it's the old solutions again yeah it's having a good migration policy yeah put a lot of money into education probably a good idea yeah um and and probably all the other things which were discussed for the last 30 years and sometimes do not happen yeah and i would like to thank my panelists very much you know it was a great session with you


Hi, my name is Sarah. I'm a librarian at the University of Alabama. This video will demonstrate how to use Project Muse to find scholarly books and articles for your research. Starting at the library's homepage, at libraries.ua.edu, select the databases link from the quick menu. You can choose Project Muse from the frequently used list at the right, or locate it under P in the A to Z list. Project Muse provides full-text access to scholarly journals and e-books in the humanities, social sciences, and interdisciplinary fields such as gender, women's and sexuality studies, area and ethnic studies, and religious studies. When you reach Project Muse from UA Libraries, it takes you to a page where you can either browse using the filters along the left side of the page, or perform a simple keyword search using the box at the top. For example, let's say you're doing research on environmentalism. You can start here with a bronze search for environmentalism in the top search box. You can also click on the yellow magnifying glass to take you to the Advanced Search page, which we'll look at in the Advanced Searching video. This search returned a few different types of items, journal articles, a special issue of a journal, and reviews. Project Muse also has e-books. The type of source is listed in red in each record. For right now, let's focus on articles. Under Content Type on the left, check the box next to articles. This is still a pretty broad topic with a lot of results, so let's look at some ways to narrow them down. Say you really want to focus on environmentalism and religion. You can narrow your results in two ways. First, you can use filters or facets to browse within your results. On the left side of the page, there are filters for publisher, book series, journal, author, language, and research area, and you can limit by publication year. For most users, the research area filter will be most useful. You can either scroll through the box or type a keyword in the field at the top. Select the subject you want to limit your results to. Now, I have a list of about 60 results that mention environmentalism somewhere in their content and are tagged with the research area, religion. This method can be a great way to explore a new topic with a single broad search term. You can select different research area limiters or just scroll through the list to see what research areas are represented. Let's try a different approach. Scroll back to the top of the page and select clear all facets above the search boxes. This deselects any limiters you have applied in the boxes below while keeping your original search term. Select articles again and type religion in the second search box. By default, you're searching content, which includes titles, abstracts, and full text, and the AND connector is set. This search will return results for anything that has both of these terms anywhere in its content. You'll notice that this method returns more results than the first one we tried. Once you find an article that will be good for your research, you have a few options to save it. You can download the item directly from the list of search results or select the article title to navigate to the item page. From there, you can email it to yourself by entering your email in the recommend field on the right. The email will include the article title information, abstract, and a link. You can also generate a citation by selecting view citation near the top of the page. Choose the format you want and copy and paste it into your document. Make sure you double check that all the information and formatting is correct. That's it for now. Thanks for watching and for more information on searching and project muse, check out our videos, advanced searching and project muse, and using the My Muse library on our YouTube page. If you have any questions, you can call us at<PHONE_NUMBER>, text us at<PHONE_NUMBER>, or visit ask.lib.ua.edu to ask a librarian.


Hey everyone, this is Mike Kramer of my capital today is Tuesday, July 25th. That's around seven o'clock New York time So tomorrow Wednesday at two o'clock Eastern. We'll be getting the FOMC rate decision expectations are for a 25 basis point rate hike you can see that basically the market is giving it a 97% chance Additionally the market's weighing about a 50% chance for an additional rate hike before the end of this year It appears the market is targeting that November date for a second rate hike. So this is something to watch for tomorrow. Obviously The market would be surprised if there weren't a 25 basis point rate hike so it seems likely that the Fed will and Most likely what the market is suggesting from the Fed fund futures at least is that J Pal and the Fed are likely to leave Optionality on the table and indicate that there is likely one more rate hike to come and that will be dependent on the data and I will also add that I think that they're likely to indicate that if more needs to be done They'll do more And that rates are likely to stay, you know high and restrictive For some time until they are sure and confident that the tightness of the labor market is not going to spill into higher inflation rates Additionally, when we go out and we look at the ECB meeting that will be on Thursday morning New York time you can see 96% chance for a rate hike of 25 basis points come Thursday and Market is pricing in You know about an 80% chance that there will be another rate hike before your end Again, I think Lagarde is also going to leave that optionality on the table And you're not going to likely see much deviation between the two central banks. I think this week And so that will take us to a review of where we are right now We'll start off with the NASDAQ because I think that We finished with the NASDAQ last night and we were talking about a couple of interesting things The first thing being that we had been above the upper and Bollinger ban for some time You can clearly see now we've come back in to that Bollinger ban now This is the fourth day that we're back into it. So certainly we're no longer in overbought conditions At least based on that metric and here's the 10-day exponential moving average So yesterday we had noted there had been three days below the exponential moving average And that had been the longest period of time that we had noticed Notice since really the beginning the middle of March that we had been below the 10-day. So today We were talking also last night about you know the appearance of some sort of triangle wedge for me Maybe a descending triangle given the week close. I thought that there was a chance we might gap lower and trade lower today Instead the market decided to gap higher That led to a move up almost about 75 basis points on the day. It took us to a rough resistance area of around Right around this 15,600 region now Clearly again, we had a pretty weak close. It seems like we've been getting these strong openings followed by weak closes It seems to be a regular Regular occurrence lately you can see that even on Friday We had a strong open and then we had a week close Monday we had a strong open and a week close today. We had a strong open rallied all day We finished above the above the opening print But we basically finished almost flat to the high of the earl that almost flat to the early high so Again, these are these seem to be like movements that we're seeing where you're getting these strong openings And then you're giving back in the final Hour to a trading and again tomorrow will be a different day because you're obviously going to have an FOMC meeting And that's potentially is going to skew how the market reacts now Again, you've also had some pretty big earnings out after hours at least as of this recording You have the NASDAQ trading down about 25 basis points or so nothing Terrible so that would indicate that we're likely looking at at least as of right now a lower opening So if the bulls want to continue to remain in charge here You're gonna want to see the NASDAQ, you know gap higher again Like we've been seeing and continued to push higher which would certainly with a gap at 15 825 still lingering Again, if the bulls are going to try to push this thing that seems like a likely area Although that seems really aggressive Given the fact that you're going to have an FOMC meeting tomorrow afternoon Plus you already have the markets trading lower So this really creates a little bit of an interesting period tomorrow Again, so you're gonna be looking for the gap above this 15,600 if you can get that Maybe you can trade a little bit higher throughout the morning. I have a feeling though given that we have the FOMC meeting You're likely to see a fairly Range-bound market during the day if we gap lower tomorrow right off the bat You're likely to see a refill of this gap to 15,450 The interesting thing that I noticed about the Dow Jones industrial average and we're gonna tie this in with the DAX Is that you can see again we talked about this yesterday? Being that you have You know now one two three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven twelve Green bars in a row and what's interesting is that? This green bar was what you'd call I guess a doji pattern a day of indecision Because the index only really finished up about eight basis points so barely eaked out again on the day The other thing that's obviously interesting here is when you go in and take a look at this pattern it has a look of a potential ending diagonal and You can even see going into the close we close below the the bottom trend line And here is your top trend now What's interesting is that you also have the same pattern and in the DAX currently? And what's interesting? I guess about it is when you overlay the two charts You'll see that the timing of it At least on the hourly charts you'll see that the timing of it. It's very similar It it took the Dow a little bit longer to get up there in terms of with the DAX But again, it's very it's a very similar sort of look to it where you've been you can see that the two are Consolidating in this sort of rising wedge pattern What could be you know an ending diagonal triangle? Which would be indicative of an index that's going to trade lower so we focused on you know this downward shifting trend line in the DAX and We don't really have that same downward shifting trend line in the Dow And so if we use the DAX as sort of a leading indicator potentially to the DAO It could be telling us something about the direction of the DAO Number one you have a DAX index here that has traded, you know again. Here's your your trend line Has almost three quarters of the of the of the characteristics of a diamond pattern again You don't have the full characteristics of one, but you have three quarters of one You certainly have what looks like a pole here, and then you have this rising diagonal or rising pennant and this would certainly be indicative of a bearish reversal pattern on top of the fact that you have this trend line in place Additionally, you've had now pretty bearish momentum overall in the DAX for some times with you know The DAX basically lodging a putting in an RSI of 80 Back on November 15th, and really RSI has just been making lower highs while the DAX has been making higher highs Which is a bearish divergence although it has been a very long one Which indicates again that you're seeing that loss of overall momentum, and you can see that the decline the As the DAX has moved higher those increases have been on a lower and lower scale So again depending on how this is sort of shaping up and setting out You know if you were to take out this trend line again, we talked about this already But on the DAX at least if you were to take this out tomorrow Then it seems likely you're going to test 16,270 pretty easily and I think after that you're talking about filling this gap up to 16,350 Clearly a breakdown of this is going to be a very bearish indicator because you have Basically a straight line rally from this point on which means that once you take this out There's a chance you could fall all the way back down to 50 you could start trading all the way back down to 15,800 in the coming days When you look at the DAO Again similar looking pattern. We just talked about you can see the ending diagonal You can see we closed just a little bit below it When we look more closely here, you can see again We're in an overbought condition where you have the RSI over 70 although the DAO has moved back It was in the upper Bollinger band So it's not as overbought as it had been but again, it is still overbought and We have what also looks like that rising diagonal So you have these two conditions that are also Leaning towards this idea that if you don't get the DAO to quickly snap higher tomorrow You know take this level out here at 13,000 call it 500 You know very quickly if that can happen then you have room to at least move back up to 35,000 550 or so the the area in which you're going to start hitting resistance is going to start becoming a little bit of a problem because again, if you if you move higher tomorrow and all of a sudden your next Your next area of resistance is going to be somewhere in this 35,600 region so it seems like The DAO is again up 12 days in a row. It's due for something in terms of a pullback It certainly appears like there is a formation of a potential pullback Coming here and when you couple that with the formation in the DAX it certainly also suggests that we're looking at a pullback and Again, it really is going to depend upon how they can open these markets tomorrow If we get one of these forceful opens like we've been seeing More recently in the DAO in the SMP Then that's going to allow it to continue to move higher But that's going to also mean that you're going to have to quickly go from around 35,000 450 To around 35,000 five and a quarter As soon as we open tomorrow if you can get a nice 7500 point pop in the DAO quickly You can continue to move higher. Maybe even trade along this upper trend line Maybe trade along the upper Bollinger band, but if you can't and you're looking at a move lower, which is Let's face it becoming a more and more of an odd as every day that you trade higher because Markets don't go don't only go higher that would potentially set you up for a decline back to 35,000 to 20 And then you have these gaps that 35,000 and 50 and then another gap at 34,000 950 And then of course or a total retracement back to 34,000 580 or so so that's where we are right now. I hope you have a great rest of your week. Bye