Good day, fellow investors. Welcome to the Value Investing Channel with Sven Kirlien. I'm a private investor, independent stock market researcher. And I like to look for low risk, high return, a little bit, you can discuss the risk, high return, long term investments. And one of the areas where I have been looking, because there was always a lot of questions, when what do you think about oil, what do you think about oil? And in the past videos I made, I always said okay, I'll take a look at oil when it comes to 40-20. Well, unfortunately for those that invested before, oil is now at 40-20, so very volatile, but it's time to look again at oil. And that's exactly what we're going to do in this video. We're going to discuss the oil price, the oil fundamentals, the long term fundamentals and how that impacts investments depending on their leverage, their areas, the cost of production. And you can see, okay, how, if you want to invest in oil, how to invest and what's the risk reward of investing. Highly leveraged investments have 10, 20 times upside, but also you can lose everything. Then you have the big oil companies, they've been there, they know the volatility, so that's also one kind of investment or the low-cost producers that are not that cheap and we'll discuss that later too. And then we'll give you, this video is a little bit long, 50 slides I have made, but that's what I did this week, researched oil, the oil environment, how can that fit my portfolio. And I think you really get a lot of value from this video because a lot of time went to it and a lot of experience, also from the past, from when I analyzed oil over the last year. So please subscribe, click that notification bell to get notified when a video comes out that will give you value for your investing purposes that you reach your financial goals. Let's start with the content. A week ago, very bad news, decade lows for the oil price, but then some positive comments from Trump and here now we are at 28, 28 something, so much higher than the lows, but still a lot down from peaks just two months ago before this war, Russia-Saudi shale oil started. So let's discuss a little bit the price, you see how oil that's given, it's extremely volatile because everybody tries to maximize his market share, but also his profits in the long term. Everybody is happy with higher prices, but then it's also about market share, about pushing competitors out of the game, etc. Similarly, for natural gas, a little rebound there, but not as big as it was the case for oil, which is interesting how politicized oil is, so it rebounds more on speculation, natural gas gas is less followed, but still very, very correlated. Now what's the key? We are going to be wrong whenever predicting the future oil price. I can guarantee you will be wrong, but look at fundamentals can give us an approximate range, a ballpark ending long term figure and that's all you need when you invest in oil or oil related stocks. At the end, it all depends on supply and demand, supply, they are pumping at will for now. When that changes, again the oil price will stabilize at a certain level. Further, we have a very different situation, very interesting situation now with the demand down a lot due to all the lockdowns and the situation. So when we look at the effect of lower prices already, if you look at the US oil rig count, it is down about what 25% over the last year. As oil prices go down, it becomes uneconomical to dig out shale oil and this in the long term balances also the situation. This is the chart and given the current very low oil prices, the capital intensive US oil drilling really declines fast which has big consequences also on jobs and everything and it's likely that if oil prices remain under 30 a barrel, that the 13100, what is it, million barrels per day, million barrels, thousands drops to 8 billion. So drops 50% in the United States if oil prices persist and remain this low over a year, a year and a half. Then as demand starts picking up, as the economy is normalized and supply is down, oil prices go up again, shale oil starts producing again and it's the same normal cycle. And then you have all these predictions. When it was at 20, everybody starts predicting it goes to 10 and then it goes to 40 of course. I remember 2009-10 prediction from Goldman Sachs that oil will go to 200 of course, it didn't go there, it went down. But that's again how those investment banks work and it's all also about attention. Now this is what's going on now, the forecast is a big decline. It's going to probably be much lower since the energy department did this forecast due to the changes in the economy as we discussed on Friday in the stock market news. So that's something to keep in mind, lower demand and higher supply creates a very bad scenario for oil prices. And that has repercussions all over the economy. If we look at Austin, Texas, prices will less of three, four million smaller houses that gets repercussions to who's going to buy what, to credit amounts, to banks, to their leverages and to their cash flows. And therefore that's why oil is so important that even Trump made statements and quickly called Putin. However, this is the fundamentals that we always talk here on this channel. The energy update from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, this is from 2018 but nothing changes if you take a more recent one. So all the companies for US fracking cannot break even and haven't shown positive cash flows in history. So if we look at the free cash flows of all the companies over the last few years, you can see that each quarter the free cash flow is negative, also per year. So it is not that economical to produce oil at such expensive costs. Also if you see the average break even prices range from 48 to 54 in the Permian, some fields are cheaper so you can continue to produce. But the average really needs 70 or 80 dollars a barrel for investments and keeping production, which is high capital investments necessary to keep production up. So if you look at the shale focus free cash flows over the last year, so very very negative, which puts shale oil in difficult position when it comes to competing with Russia or Saudi Arabia in this war. So the importance of production up of higher prices is there. It has repercussions on the economy and this is also a repercussion of 2015-16, the sanctions that America imposed to Russia, Iran and to try to keep to try to keep the house of cards of higher cost production up in the United States. In the meantime, what did Russia do? They pumped up their foreign exchange reserves, especially from the start of the sanctions 2015-2020, really really saved a lot of dollars so that they can survive for longer. They bought a lot of gold also to survive for longer and not to be depending on what's going on in the markets. The debt to GDP, Russian debt to GDP is 12 or 12.5 percent, now perhaps 14, so really really nothing compared to 120 percent for the United States. Then if you look at Saudi Aramco, the IPO was in December 11, 2019 and then they entered the war. So they took the IPO money, make all things public, took the very cheap global debt that they could and then let all hell break loose because we took our money as the Russians did and then who is the loser for now, Trump and he calls discusses prices with Putin because to save Austin, Texas and the economies there, they need higher prices and if you look at the marginal producer setting the price, depending on demand and million barrels per day, you see Canada oil sends 80 break-even cost, average cost, so non-OPEC average is higher, above 50, global average is 40 and that's also where I see the future price of oil 40, 50, 60 depending on the cyclicality and investments. However, Saudi Arabia and then Russia are the cheapest producers then all the others come after that. If we look how the marginal producer sets the price and we look at the demand, we see how bad the situation is and they really see this 20% decline in demand from it's about 100 million barrels per day now, 20-25% decline in demand, which will have a terrible impact on oil prices as we have seen. So oil prices up a little bit but it's really super contango and the normal situation, contango is a normal situation in which the spot or cash price of a commodity is lower than the forward price and I'll show you the forward price for the next years in a second. But these headlines don't help Apocalyptic, April etc. could last longer for years to come and then it's also about sentiment because there is a lot of speculation. However, long-term prices are still expected to be around 50 but the decline from 60 is a big deal. This is from Bloomberg, the future Brent price, crude prices and you can see how in 2018 at the end of the year it was from 50 to 60. So this is what people expect if I need oil in one, two, three years they were happy to pay 60. Now it is a whole $10 down which has repercussions on investing cycles, on companies, on everything which we will discuss in a second. However, if we discuss stocks and the oil investing strategy stocks have already rebounded from the bottom, which means those were oversold and now those have rebounded which indicates that it is likely that the market and everybody expects higher oil prices in the long term, perhaps downturn in 2020 as the oversupply is clear, but they expect higher prices long term and therefore the market said oil stocks have been punished too much when those were down 50% so they have to go down because of the change in prices but not that much. If we look at what's going on with the fundamentals, if you want to dig deeper here, this is from Credit Suisse, you can pause the video and see how what fits your investment scenarios but if we look at the dividend yield all very good dividend yields there as they have high free cash flows but this is at higher oil prices. So some companies borrow to pay the dividends, some companies have the cash flows but you have to see how which company fits your investment strategy here. We'll discuss more companies a little bit later but let's start now with Exxon. Now Exxon discusses how it is simply a commodity cycle and the oil prices will go up and they are making their calculations on the base of current and long term oil prices average five years, oil prices and they think all prices will remain there. I don't totally agree with Exxon, there was a video of me discussing the company a few months ago and saying how I stay away from that but okay. So if you look at what are their targets they see a range between 50 and 70 which is what they say it's the necessary level to keep the supply in line with demand over the next 10 years. At the end of the video I'll show you how just small changes in supply demand will impact hugely the oil price and how Exxon might be wrong on this and that's something you have to be very careful when it comes to them. This is their discussion how they need 20 trillion of oil and natural gas investments needed by 2040 to recoup for the depletion from the oil extraction and also to create the for supply for higher demand. We'll see whether they are right or not. Also they are investing a lot 20-30 billion average annual capex with other companies also Royal Dutch Shell close to 30 billion, Chevron Total British Petrol also 25 billion etc. So high investments however a little bit more costly investment they say generate generates double digit returns at low prices but those prices are still higher than what we are seeing now so we have Permian as we have seen a little bit higher cost okay Exxon has a little bit lower cost Guyana Deepwater and of course LNG which again depends on the costs. So very tricky let's say on the higher side of the cost curve so you need higher oil prices for longer to do this but if everybody thinks about investing it's again oversupply and we have seen what oversupply does to the oil price. Then just a note here they're also discussing how to develop algae for corn for biodiesel so they are also researching how to screw themselves up so which was an interesting but that's how they enter the environmentally friendly ETFs and index funds so they are seeing return on capital employed going higher from 8% to 12% of course if you look at the small number they assume $60 per barrel there $60 we are now below 40 with no end in sight for how will that end up then just discussing Shell so they secure the 12 billion credit facility to safeguard the dividend this is pure stupidity because you are taking 12 billion of credit lines to pay a dividend so that you show your investors oh everything is stable everything is good let's financially engineering let's do a little bit of wind and window dressing to show how everything is great okay but on the other hand also the markets are giving credit worthiness to this big company so everybody expects okay 20 oil 30 oil is a little bit crazy but let me show you some craziness so buybacks have been done while the stock price was between 25 and 40 euros and now that the stock price is at 16 buybacks stop so now the return on buybacks is double what it was over the last three years and then buybacks stop so when I see this stupid kinds of financial engineering from loans to pay dividends to stopping buybacks when it's really important to do buybacks I simply steer away from such companies of course it could rebound every investment fund needs to buy this every pension fund needs to buy this if you're going wrong with Shell then nobody tells you nothing so it will probably rebound from the current level to 20 30 and then you make a great return but the fundamentals is something I wouldn't risk on from just my personal perspective then I looked at some other companies like London Petroleum it's mining for oil it's looking for oil in Sweden they have extremely low costs of I think a few dollars per barrel plus everything they break even at below 17 dollars per barrel so very cheap oil production growing oil production and they expect to make about 600 to 801 billion dollars in free cash flows on a market capitalization of that's 40 54 billion sec so we are at five five billion dollars so that's a return of 10 12 percent long term but they also have a lot of debt so you have to see how are they going to deal with that for me it's still the price due to the low cost production cost is still a little bit too high for me now also when it comes to other oil stocks you go to Russia which is again a low cost producer so look oil spent less than four dollars to extract a barrel of oil add to this five dollars to ship and six dollars per barrel of capital spending and you still get a barrel of oil for under 20 so also the Russians can survive for a year two years three years without with oil prices at 20 now it's already 30 so they already make money the thing is who will gain market share over the long term as we have seen shale oil needs 50 60 70 to break even also if we look to the CEO of look oil it's not the first time that crude falls so we they have seen levels from two dollars a barrel to 146 so we are used to operating in a volatile environment so are all others oil players especially big companies if you look at the big companies debt to EBITDA as oil stabilizes again to 45 60 over the long term it's still below two for the majors there so nothing to really worry long term as oil will likely go to 30 40 it will be definitely volatile but the long term oil stabilization will probably be there and these companies will not go away however the smaller companies are much more at risk if you go there and you see debt to EBITDA at 50 already at free at 40 those companies cannot survive that long also you can pause these slides if you need and then you see also other companies at free debt to EBITDA for debt to EBITDA that's very very risky and those are the investment outcomes the high debt it means that the company doesn't survive scenarios debt holders take over the company restructure it and try to get out some value especially if oil prices go up unfortunately current shareholders get wiped out how does it look like look at california resources they need 60 70 oil to make all their plans worthwhile now it's a lost cause but but if oil prices go up so you're really risking total loss but if oil prices go up sharply then this is quickly a 10 bagger 20 bagger if oil prices remain higher so that's the risk and reward of investing now we have scenarios oil prices will recover 50 at least is needed for investments and to justify to cover for the demand over the next 10 20 years 70 even better but those investments really need to feel the pain and go over bankruptcies etc over the next year or two and then we can see stabilization into 2020 the danger is free money to everyone can keep production for longer lower negative cash flows as we have already seen for us oil does feel no pain and create a distorted market even if it already is a distorted market due to all the politics so on oil one 60 63% of all us production is from tight oil shale therefore lower oil prices and tighter credit means roughly 63% of oil is not economically viable in the us that you take away that that's what seven eight million barrels a day and that stabilizes the oil price very quickly and brings it up to again 40 50 russia is basically only about two things oil and gas it needs them for its foreign currency it will do whatever it takes to protect them it can produce however oil at around 15 without with break even big oil firms have been there seen that got the t-shirt remove 63% of us production prices go up that's the conclusion stabilization will come but we have to see how when this panic mode this dark oversupply side year finishes to conclude with some very interesting info now we don't know and this is my main question for oil long-term growth of 1% in demand over the next 15 years or decline of 1% in demand if we start with 100 million barrels of oil per day this is the difference huge difference that's a 30% difference in demand and this is what makes or destroys a company like axon or the major players because they are all investing if they invest those are long-term projects and everything if they invest based on the 116 scenario growth scenario and the actual scenario is 86 we can be looking at 10 years of oversupply in oil investments and then really the small players like the shale oil play players in the US get really screwed up if we have a decline of 2% per year the difference is even bigger so when it comes to oil I am invested more in natural gas also with two separate stocks into oil a little bit I'll try to increase those positions if the situation lasts longer but I think that my opinion is that the average long-term price of oil will be higher than it is not as high as it was expected a year ago two years ago and that's why I never invested directly in oil before but I always look at low-cost producers that's what I always end ceterum tensium gasprom est super esse so that's my investment strategy it is the same as it was over the last year low businesses low-cost production long-term oil and simply I can sleep well in whatever environment that's my strategy you see how another strategy fits you thank you for watching subscribe if you want to check everything that I do check my website there is my book charity research reports etc etc my research platform anything that might fit your investing needs thank you and I'll see you in the next video


So, in this session, we will continue our discussion on relationship between the total cost, total revenue, profit and loss, the break-even analysis, what we discussed in the last session also and we will see what is the profitable and non-profitable range of output, how the business activities plan on the basis of profit and loss. So, if you remember in the last class, we talked about the long-run cost and output relationship, generally how the long-run cost is derived from the short-run cost curves and how both of them they are related, in which case short-run cost curve is used and in which case the long-run cost curve is used. Then we introduced the break-even analysis, specifically in case of linear cost and revenue function, when linear cost and revenue follow a straight line. So, the break-even point is one where the total cost is equal to total revenue, beyond that it is a profitable range of output because total revenue is more than total cost and before this it is a non-profitable range because the total cost is greater than the total revenue and the break-even point is one where the total cost is equal to total revenue. So, to start with, we will continue again our discussion on the linear cost function, we will just look at the algebra behind the linear cost and revenue function specifically in case of break-even analysis. Then we will discuss about the non-linear cost and revenue function, then we will do the contribution analysis and then finally, we will discuss about the learning curve which is the again the background is on the shape of the long-run average cost curve. Generally the practice is that we follow that there is a economies of scale because of which the average cost is decreasing, but learning curve is the alternate method to understand or the expand that why long-run average cost is decreasing. So, to start with we will look at what is the algebra behind the break-even analysis. So, as we know that the at the break-even point the total revenue is equal to total cost. So, as we know total revenue is P multiplied by Q and total cost has two parts that is total fixed cost and total variable cost. Now, this total variable cost is alternatively we can say this is the average variable cost multiplied by the quantity and total cost is total fixed cost and in spite of TVC if you write average variable cost multiplied by Q, then this is this comes as total fixed cost and in in place of total variable cost we use average variable cost multiplied by Q. So, in this case we can write this as the if QB is the break-even level of output if it is a breaking level available output putting this total revenue is equal to total cost revenue is since it is PQ. So, QB by P and total cost is total fixed cost plus average variable cost and in case of this Q since QB is the break-even level of output we will use QB. So, QB by P multiplied by P is now simplify this again this is ABC QB equal to total fixed cost again simplifying this we will get if you take QB is out that is P minus ABC which is equal to total fixed cost or we can say QB is equal to total fixed cost divided by P minus ABC. So, if we know or it if the producer know what is the level of TFC, what is the level of TBC and what is the level of P then we can find out find out the quantity that is the break-even level of quantity through this that is QB is equal to TFC by P minus ABC. So, the algebra behind this is if you know the fixed cost if you know the average variable cost and if you know the price of it generally you can find out the find out the break-even level of output, but when it come to break-even analysis specifically in case of linear cost and revenue function it is applicable only if the cost and revenue are linear. So, in case of linear cost and revenue function the total cost and total revenue are straight line the intersect only at one point dividing the whole range of output as two parts that is profitable and non profitable like in the previous graph we saw that this is our total fixed cost, this is total variable cost this is total revenue cost and the total cost starts from here and this is the total revenue cost total cost. So, this is the break-even level of output because total revenue is equal to total cost and this divides the entire range of output into two level that is non profitable and profitable. This is possible only if it is a linear total revenue cost function or linear total cost function because they intersect each other only at one point and that is the reason clearly we can divide that this is the profitable range of output and this is the non profitable range of output, but if it is not a case of linear then the possibility is that they intersect more than twice or may be more than once and in this case we it is difficult to find out what is the profitable range of output and what is the non profitable range of output. So, what is the implication for this if it is a linear cost cost and revenue function we get two range of output profitable range of output and non profitable range of output, but the implication for this that the whole output beyond the break-even level is profitable right because the point beyond which total revenue is equal to total cost the total revenue is more than total cost beyond all the level which is which implies from a linear cost and revenue function, but when it comes to the real life this is not the fact as the conditions are different due to changing price and cost. So, it is not possible that the you get a when it say it is a case of linear cost and revenue function. So, if you look at the graph beyond this point we say any level of output is profitable right. So, implication of linear cost and revenue function is that beyond the break-even level any level of output is profitable, but in the real life the fact is condition are different due to the changing price and cost and that leads to the fact that the cost and revenue function may not be linear they may non-linear the cost function and the revenue function is non-linear. Because of the fact that the in case of real life there is a changing price which leads to change in the cost changing price of inputs and changing price of problem materials which leads to the variation in the cost and which leads to the possibility that the cost and revenue function are non-linear. So, the non-linearity arises due because of average variable cost and the price vary with the variation in the output. Since the average variable cost changes due to change in the price which vary with the variation in the output and as a result total cost may increase at the increasing rate and total revenue may increase at the decreasing rate. Since the there is a non-linearity due because of average variable cost and price change with the variation in the output that leads to the possibility that total cost increase at the increasing rate and total revenue increase at the decreasing rate. So, at storm stages of output total cost exceeds the total revenue, but in case of linear cost how it was happening? It was like after the break even level the total revenue is always greater than the total cost, but in case of non-linear since total revenue will increase at the decreasing rate and total cost will increase at the increasing rate at least at some stage of output the possibility is that the total cost will increase the total revenue. So, in this case maybe we get two break even point that is the one break even point when total cost is equal to total revenue and the possibility is that another break even point where again the total cost is equal to total revenue which limits the profitable range of output and determine the lower and upper limit of output. So, it is not that the profitable range of output is unlimited rather it is the it is defined the lower and upper limit of the profitable range of output. So, there is a need to pretest there is a need to verify the validity of the linearity of cost and revenue function before assuming that the cost or the revenue is the linear. So, in this case there is a need of pretest there is a need of verification before taking the cost and revenue as the linear function. So, what happens in case of non-linear there is two break even point there is not only one break even point two break even point and that decides the limit upper limit and lower limit of the ranges of the output. So, let us find out the graph for the non-linear cost and revenue function in case of a break even analysis. This is total cost and revenue this is output suppose this is total fixed cost this is total revenue ok. So, this is total cost this is total revenue and this is total fixed cost ok. So, here the total fixed cost line it shows that the fixed cost at O F this is fixed cost and the vertical distance between total cost and total fixed cost it measures the total variable cost because this is the total fixed cost and total cost is always the summation of the total variable cost and total fixed cost. So, the vertical distance between the total cost and total fixed cost that gives us the total variable cost. The curve total revenue shows that the total sales or total revenue at different output level at the different price and the vertical distance between the total revenue and total cost measure the profit or loss for various level of output. So, the vertical distance between total revenue and total cost that will give you the various level of output. So, corresponding to that we get two break even level of output one is q 1 and second one is q 2. So, we can say this is p 1 and this is p 2. So, total revenue and cost intersect to each other at two different point one at the point p 1 second at the point p 2 where the total revenue is equal to total cost. Before p 1 before the level p 1 the total cost is greater than total revenue. So, this is the non profitable range of output beyond p 1 any level of output up to p 2 this is the profitable range of output. But like in case of linear cost and revenue function it is not unlimited the profitable range of output is non limited because we get another break even point at p 2 which leads to the fact that beyond this point total cost is greater than total revenue and again this range is non profitable range. So, in case of non linear cost function we get two break even level and which also identify the lower limit and upper limit of profitable range of output. So, q 1 is the beginning of the profitable range of output and q 2 is the end of the profitable range of output. This is the lower limit of profitable range of lower level of output where the profit can be achieved this is the higher level of output where the profit can be output. So, this represent lower and upper break even point p 1 is the lower break even point p 2 is the upper break even point. And for the whole range of output between OQ 1 and corresponding to the this and this Q 1 and Q 2 is the break even point corresponding to this output level the total revenue is greater than total cost. So, this is the profit, this is the lower break even point, this is the upper break even point. So, if the firm is producing more than OQ 1 then or less than OQ 2 they are making the profit. So, if the firm is producing more than OQ 1 it should be more than OQ 1 the Q should be more than OQ 1 and less than OQ 2 then only the firm is making the profit. So, the output level should be more than OQ 1 and less than OQ 2 then only the firm is making the profit and producing less or more than these limits will give rise to the losses. So, basically the essential difference between the linear and non-linear break even analysis is in case of linear break even analysis the profitable range of output is unlimited, but in case of non-linear analysis there is a limit of profitable range of output beyond that producing more before that producing less will lead to the loss. So, if you look at this is the loss because total cost is greater than total revenue this is also loss because the total cost is greater than total revenue. This is the profitable range of output where the total revenue is greater than total cost. Then we will come to the one more type of analysis may be in relation to this break even analysis that is called as the contribution analysis. So, till the time here we are considering the total revenue total cost to understand the break even analysis, but in case of contribution analysis we are not taking the total cost total revenue we are taking the incremental revenue and incremental cost of the business activity. So, contribution analysis is the analysis of incremental revenue and incremental cost of business activity and break even charts can also be used to measuring the contribution made by business activity towards covering the fixed cost. So, through contribution analysis we will use some break even charts and the what is the role of break even charts here the role of break even charts over here is to measure the contribution made by the business activity towards the covering the fixed cost. And in the graph always the variable cost is plotted below the fixed cost. So, fixed cost are constant addition to the variable cost total cost line will run parallel to the variable cost line because the change in the total cost is depend on the change in the total variable cost. And the contribution is the difference between the total revenue and variable cost arising out of the business decision. So, the difference between the total revenue and total cost gives us the profit and contribution is strictly defined as the difference between the total revenue and the total variable cost. So, this is how the contribution analysis if you look at the graph the total revenue curve which TR starts from the origin. Total cost is the summation of the variable cost and the fixed cost that is starting at a point in the y axis which includes the fixed cost. Variable cost is starting from the origin the total cost and the difference between the total cost and the variable cost gives us the fixed cost and which is alternately also known as the may be the difference between the total fixed cost and total variable cost and total cost. The difference between the total revenue and total cost is profit and the difference between the total revenue and the total cost is profit and the difference between the total revenue and the total variable variable cost is known as contribution ok. So, if you look at this contribution is nothing but also the fixed cost at the breakeven level. So, breakeven level is corresponding to if you look at the graph breakeven level is corresponding to the point Q where total revenue is equal to the total cost and the variable cost is VC and the difference between the total revenue and total variable and the variable cost gives us the contribution and the difference between the total revenue and total cost gives us the profit. So, if you look at this graph previously, ok is the breakeven level of output and the contribution equals to the fixed cost below the output ok to the total contribution is less than fixed cost that is amount of loss. Below this the contribution is less than fixed cost that is the reason this is the amount of the loss and beyond this point the contribution is more than the fixed cost and that is the reason if you look at this the case of the profit that is the contribution exceed fixed cost and the difference is the contribution towards the profit resulting from the business decision. So, beyond the break before the breakeven level of output total contribution is less than fixed cost. So, this is the amount to loss and beyond output OQ that is beyond the breakeven level of output contribution exceed the fixed cost and this is the difference in the contribution towards the profit resulting from the business decision. So, one is before breakeven level of output the contribution is less than fixed cost that is the reason this leads to loss and the other point is beyond the breakeven level of output which exceeds the fixed cost the contribution exceed the fixed cost and this is the difference in the contribution towards the profit resulting from the business decision. But if you look at the contribution over time over time period under review is plotted in order to indicate the commitment that the management has made to the fixed expenditure and to find the level of output from which it will be recover and profit will begin to emerge. So, over a time period contribution over a time period under the review is plotted in order to indicate the commitment that the management has made to fixed expenditure because there is a commitment even the output leads to profitable output or not still they have to incur a certain amount of the expenditure and to find the level of output from which it will be recover and profit will begin to emerge that will look from the contribution. So, if you look at the graph here, so we will just draw a graph that how the contribution emerge when there is a commitment when the management decides to or management has the commitment to made to the fixed expenditure and there we need to find the level of output from which level of output the fixed cost whatever the contributed before that can be recover and the new level of profit can be generated. So, we will take a total revenue curve here as a straight line this is the fixed cost to make it simplified by not adding the variable cost here. So, this is fixed cost and contribution on the on the y axis and output in the x axis. So, this is q and this is the contribution, but beyond the breakeven level since q is the breakeven level of output breakeven level of output o q is the breakeven level of output this is the loss because the contribution is less than the fixed cost and at the point o q the fixed cost is equal to the contribution and beyond this the fixed cost is less than the less than the contribution and that is why this is the net profit added to the firm beyond the breakeven level of output. So, at the output of level of o q contribution equal to fixed cost before this the contribution is less than the fixed cost that is why the firm is incurring loss and beyond this point the contribution is more than the fixed cost and that is the reason the firm is getting the profit.


Hey guys, Thundie here. Now this is the Galaxy S21 Ultra and this is an S Pen and you're thinking do they work together? Yes it does and you're going but that's for the Galaxy Note, well not anymore. So let's jump in and find out how. So this is the new S Pen, it is larger in size and also feels like a regular pen and as you can see it's got a button on the side which is similar to the standard S Pen you find with the Galaxy Note series. Now what's different with this pen and the regular S Pen is of course first of all the size so it is larger and longer and also has a bit more volume space for grip. The other difference is that the regular S Pen from the Note series has Bluetooth functionality and Bluetooth features which you will not find in this S Pen so that's something that is different there. Now the S Pen is of course $39, this is the silicon cover case. This case here retails with the S Pen for roughly around $79. It's a silicon case, it's got this nice side pocket here where you can put your S Pen in so you can just slide it in there and drop, it doesn't charge you or anything like that, you just basically just have a housing for your S Pen and that's pretty much it. It's got of course cutouts for your camera, everything is kind of protected. As far as you'd say it's got some resistivity so when you drop it you can see you'll find nothing damages the screen there so you've got that with this case. Also with the case comes with the S Pen tips and the tip changer. So there's a ton of things you can do with the S Pen on the Galaxy S21 and you guys are probably wondering about that wallpaper, yes I have the links for you guys down below but the first thing you notice is that you do have that quick access menu for the S Pen right there which you can basically tap and bring in, zoom in a little bit closer. You can see you've got a list of items and things you can do. You've got your notes so you can go ahead and create notes on your S Pen. You can write, you can draw, you can say this is cool and it feels like an S Pen which is nice so you've got that ability there. You can go in, you can view all your notes directly, you can use smart select so I can go ahead and select what I just wrote, boom and I can save that or I can do many things with it. All depends. So you can see the smart select tool, let's go ahead and close this out. So you can pin that to screen so I have that pinned to my screen. Go back to the whole screen, that's there. You've also got the ability to screen write, this is something definitely like you can write on screen, you can basically take a screenshot of something and then write on it. If we were to do this properly, we go here, we see this article, we like it, we want to make some edits, you can go ahead and screen write and boom. Then you can say for instance go in, select that, read that pen and then you can write on screen. So you've got that ability built in and you have like messages, you can go ahead and do that, you can either pick from the gallery, pick this wonderful photo of Keanu Reeves and then we hit done and then you can of course write a live message, boom, right there. So I mean you get the idea of what this can actually do. So you've got a ton of those features built in, translators there, you've got the pen up feature, you can write on your calendar, you can add more shortcuts as well. So you tap, that gives you a laundry list of things to add. So you can also add in things like your games for instance and I do play a lot of Call of Duty so I can add that here. So the next time I pull this up, Call of Duty is right there. So I've got that built in for me to do whatever I want to do. Now in terms of features for the S Pen, it's going to the menu system here, we've got a bunch of things, I'm going to have my notes put up there. So the S Pen is on, which means you can use the S Pen with your device. We've got show floating icons, that's one feature. You've got open air commands, so if you hover around something you will see those commands, you've got the sounds and then you've got tips. Now if you scroll up some of the shortcuts, which is basically this menu I showed you earlier, we've got show pointer when hovering. Airviews also activated, creating notes with the pen button. So basically we use this button, I press it and hold to create notes and then tapping on the screen. So basically if I press and hold the button and I tap, my notes open up. So here you have it. So the note screen has come back up and then I can create my notes and create whatever I want to. So that's the only feature you have with the pen. Now some of you are probably wondering, can you use the regular pen from the Galaxy Note series? And that's it here. So this is the pen for my Galaxy Note 20 Ultra. And yeah, as you can see, I can use the pen. And I will say this in terms of pen, this feels a little bit more precise than this. This feels like it's got a softer tip on the new S Pen, while the Note 20 S Pen feels just a bit more like you're using a fountain pen or something like that. So this feels just a little tighter, feels better. But in general, this S Pen works really well. I do like the flow. I like the way it works, all that fun stuff. So I think this is a very useful functional S Pen. Now, when it comes to the case with it, you can see how easy it is to have the housing here and taking out your S Pen. The case itself is much wider than standard cases. I'm going to take my leather case here just to show you some of the dimensions. And we can bring that closer and you can see how it looks. So it's a thicker case. You can see it's also got just a little extra space in here for housing the S Pen. And it also feels just a little bit bulkier while using it. But still a nice case, I think, especially for this. I like to see some third party manufacturers make their cases for the S Pen in general. But I think using this pen, I think a lot of people will like it because functionality is pretty good if you go into your applications, like you can see scrolling through Instagram here using, of course, the 120 Hertz display. It's maximum. Now, some of you are probably wondering, can you use the S Pen on the Galaxy S21? The answer is no. So this is limited to the Galaxy S21 Ultra, not the 21. So as you can see right below here, the 21 Ultra works. The 21, no such functionality because this doesn't have the Wacom matrix built into the display. That's only available on the S21 Ultra right here and not on the S21. So as much as I try to use it, I cannot. It doesn't even recognize it. It doesn't recognize as it touches. You can see my screen was getting darker there. So you can only do this on the Galaxy S21 Ultra, not the Galaxy S21. S21 users, if you want to use the S Pen, you've got to buy the S21 Ultra and buy the S Pen separately as an accessory to use it. So hopefully that gives you guys a full idea of what the S21 Ultra is like with the S Pen. There are different functionalities you can use. You've got, of course, your S Notes and all the S Pen features as we go back into our settings here. Just take a quick look at it all over again. We see that, of course, we can do quite a few things with the S Pen and it's a fun tool to use. So if you have any questions or any comments, let me know. Otherwise, don't forget to like, share, and always enjoy your entertainment.


Alright, online courses with WordPress. That is me Troy Dean, I'm co-founder of WP Elevation and Rockstar Empires and my big passion is the democratization of education. A couple of case studies to get us started. Megan Teltner worked in the advertising industry and she was diagnosed with a rare condition that meant that she was kind of sick and couldn't work and the doctors told her, look you're just going to have to manage this for the rest of your life, there is no cure. And she didn't like that answer. So she turned to nutrition and cured her symptoms through cooking. She then started teaching people how to cook in her loft in Canada until she got to the point where she couldn't teach any more people. So because she physically didn't have the room to take any more people on, she was teaching six nights a week. So she took her course online, it's called Culinary Nutrition Academy and she's now graduated over a thousand students in various countries around the world and done over a million dollars in sales. Mark Dawson is a self-published author who learnt how to use Facebook ads to sell more of his books and then he turned that into a course and sold it to other self-published authors and his first launch he did $250,000 in his online course. And Nikki Elige Brown was a park ranger and figured out that she had a bit of a knack for copywriting. So she put a copywriting course up online and went from zero to three hundred thousand dollars in 12 months. One of the biggest rewards for me as a course creator online is actually getting to meet our students and our colleagues in real life and this was a mastermind we had in New York City a few months ago and in fact we've just come out of a two-day mastermind here in Philadelphia which was overwhelming and humbling and awesome on so many levels and the irony is having an online business this is probably the most rewarding thing for me is actually meeting these dudes in real life. So the online education market is worth a hundred and seven billion dollars at US that was 2015 and just to put that into some kind of context the blockbuster box office industry is worth 38.3 billion dollars so for every dollar people are spending going to the cinema they're spending almost three dollars on online courses and as someone who knows something and wants to help other people it allows you to go from the one-to-one business model of doing consulting to the one-to-many business model by teaching lots of people at once. So who can you teach? Well I think there are two audiences that you can teach that are the low-hanging fruit you can teach the DIY crowd so that is someone who wants to know how you do what you do so if you're really good at SEO but they can't afford to hire you they can take your course and learn how to do SEO make sense right or you can teach your peers which is kind of the space that I play in so if you're really good at SEO and you know how to run an SEO agency and a PPC agency like my friend Mike Rhodes then you can teach other PPC agencies how to run their business and that's kind of what we do at WP Elevation. The problem with what are known as massive online open courses is that most people don't finish them so you spend all this time you do this work you get people to enroll in your course and the vast majority don't finish it like somewhere between 2 and 10 percent of the people that enroll in your course are actually going to complete the course. There was a whole bunch of research done I think my friend Justin Ferriman from LearnDash for putting me under this research that has tracked analytics across Udemy and Harvard and MIT and all the big online course providers. At WP Elevation we're getting 65% plus completion rates here's how we do it we start of course with the reason we're all here WordPress it's free open source completely extensible and configurable and adaptable and it allows us to build beautiful course websites that look like this I'll talk a little bit more about the technology in a little while but our big approach is more carrot and less stick so I'm going to show you some examples of what other people do and what we do and how we differentiate. Most online courses talk at you so this is a particular this is a very typical screenshot sorry to pick on Sensei I think this is a Sensei screenshot anyway I just grabbed a screenshot of an online course platform and this is a screenshot of you know a typical online course so you log in you start taking this online course and there's a little voice in the back of your head that says maybe I'm the only one here maybe I'm the only who's ever bought an online course by just quick show of hands keep your hand up if you've bought an online course and not finished it I think more hands went up then actually so the problem is you log in and the online course is talking at you right now you might design a really beautiful UI and have different learning modes like visual and audio but there's still no real interaction that the content is just it's a one-way conversation we invite you into a conversation so the first thing you see when you enroll in one of our courses is an onboarding wizard and a stupid little welcome video with me being a bit of a goose and we ask you a series of questions then we get you set up in the platform one of the questions we ask you for example is what is your skill set and if you identify yourself as a copywriter then we're going to allow you to be matched up with other people in the community who need a copywriter and then we introduce you to your sorry we continue that conversation by asking you what it is you want to achieve today so we invite you to be part of the conversation rather than talking at you the next thing we do is introduce you to your community a couple of ways that we do that here is we just show you who's logged in recently who the other members are in your community and there's a Facebook style wall here that shows you what's happening what is the activity so straight away you realize that you belong to a tribe and that you've got classmates you're not insane you're not the only person who has bought this course most courses overwhelm you with content this is an actual screenshot of a course platform there are I think five pages there I have no idea where to start we hold your hand every step of the way so when you actually enrolling one of our courses the first thing you see after the onboarding wizard and the community is this just the one course that you enrolled in and then during that course we unlock bonuses to encourage you to complete the modules so by the time you've completed all of the modules you've got this beautiful dashboard full of bonus courses but we're not going to show you that until you've completed the course that you've actually enrolled in because we want to keep you focused we want you to complete the course and little sidebar why I think course completion rates matter two reasons first of all I actually want our students to complete the course because I want them to get the benefit of the learning but from a marketing and a business standpoint it dramatically lowers your cost per acquisition because if they are a successful student they are more likely to refer their friends to you most online courses teach abstract concepts I'm really sorry if this is actually someone's course but this is a flow chart that I got from an online course and I have no idea where to start and I'm overwhelmed and frankly I don't really care because it's way too difficult we teach using very simple frameworks very simple step-by-step follow the bouncing ball tick things off as they're done most courses use long lessons boring slides and bullet points is anyone read Seth Godin's death by PowerPoint presentation yeah so this is an actual course and I've blurred out some details to protect someone's I was going to say privacy but I'll say reputation this the course actually is really good the content in this course is really good but most of it is this most of it is like slides with lots of bullet points and a video where nothing changes for 17 minutes and 25 seconds now I don't know about you but I can't sit still for 17 minutes and 25 seconds and look at one slide with lots of bullet points it's not a great student experience we use slides and direct to camera for dynamic videos so here are the screenshots from one of our videos this is an introduction title cards very straightforward here's one camera angle here's a second camera angle and here's a nice graphic visualization to illustrate what it is we're talking about so they're all one video we're constantly changing the content and making it dynamic so that you don't fall asleep and most of our videos are somewhere between five and eight minutes anything over 10 minutes you got to break that into us into into two lessons most courses are just video so let's go back to case in point this is just a series of videos that get kicked open in a light box again I've taken this course the content's really good but every time I log in I don't really know where I'm up to and I've got to watch a whole video again just to see if I've already done this I can't read a transcript I can't listen to the audio so there are four different types of learning modes we've learned this over the last few years there's visual oral reading and writing and kinesthetic so we use video audio kinesthetic by the way is doing things we use video audio text quizzes and homework to make sure that our students actually learn what it is we're teaching for example here's video here's some text underneath the video there's video on audio downloads there's a quiz we use dynamic quizzes to keep students awake so they're not all multiple choice it's a combination of multiple choice there's a drag and drop to drag things into the right order most courses deliver static content so I go back to another course here that I've taken again great content but every time I log in I don't know where I'm up to it's static it's not listening to me as a student we use gamification to keep students motivated and some of our gamification looks like this just really simple progress bars underneath the course so you know we are up to and a little tick underneath the the course on the actual dashboard so you know hey I've done that course I'm going to move on to one of my bonuses most courses email you when new content is released which makes perfect sense right we send you emails based on your actions so if you haven't completed module one there's no point sending you an email that says hey Paul congratulations on completing module one module two's just been released we instead we'll send you an email that says hey Paul get off your ass and complete module one because module two is about to be released tomorrow and we also this is what our emails look like and we also deliver in-app messages based on your actions and some of you may be familiar with some of these in-app messages you've seen in certain software apps anyone seen kind of messages that look like this that pop up in websites and software apps we intercom by the way to to trigger these in-app messages again based on your actions and your behavior and we reward you for taking action so when you complete modules we unlock badges that we put on your dashboard and then we show you you know what's coming up next week there's a coaching call coming up that you now have access to because you've completed the course you get access to this bonus content and we also allow you to download your course badge to display on your website and print your certificate like Caronda Adair from Portland Oregon Renee Sedgling from the Netherlands Melanie Adcock from the US Christina Hawkins who is here with us today Ryan Lavander from the US Julie Walpers from the US and Dave Narra from Mumbai in India is this little snapshot of all of our members all over the world and this is this is big because people know that they're part of a community they know that there are other people all over the world doing the same thing going through the same journey so we built this for WP elevation we've recently duplicated it to another business we've started called Rockstar Empires which is where we're essentially teaching creative entrepreneurs how to take their business online and how to leverage part of that is teaching them how to create and sell their own course so just to show you that you can do this outside the niche that we plan you can duplicate this entire system for whatever it is that you want to teach and we also built it for a buddy of mine Nathan Chan who runs a digital magazine called Founder and this is what his looks like here all right according to this I have five minutes and three seconds left so I'm going to talk a little bit about the technology that we use which of course is WordPress the core then that we put on top of WordPress to drive most of this is of course LearnDash which if you haven't already seen you should definitely check out and the man behind LearnDash is Justin Ferriman who is sitting in the audience here you should definitely go and chat to him but don't shake his hand because he's got the man flu by the way the man flu is an Australian term for when a man gets a head cold and he believes that he's the only person that's ever been so sick and he's about to die this is what LearnDash looks like WordPress LMS made easy and then to build in the social interaction we install BuddyPress thank you very much to JJJ if he's anywhere around for all the work that you've done on that over the years BuddyPress is basically a social network in a box for WordPress and then to to build in some of the gamification we use BadgeOS which is a great open source badging system built by the guys at WebDev Studios this is what BadgeOS looks like we then use this amazing platform that comes from the guys at BuddyBoss in Chicago it's called social learner for LearnDash and what this does this actually ties in the social integration of BuddyPress with the learning of LearnDash so when someone when one of your classmates completes a module and unlocks a badge it will display on that Facebook style wall hey Brett's unlocked the positioning module and now has the badge you go damn you Brett I'm going to complete the quizzes so I can get my certificate as well social learner for LearnDash looks like this and it is amazing it's incredible I can't speak highly enough about it we use Infusionsoft for all of our email marketing because we like paying lots of money for very confusing software that's what Infusionsoft looks like we use Stripe to handle all of our payments because it's easy and it works and they charge less than PayPal that's what Stripe looks like and then there is a plugin that integrates Infusionsoft and LearnDash and WordPress and ties it all together really well but unfortunately I can't mention it because it's not GPL so instead I'll talk about this one which is called WP Fusion which is open source and WP Fusion is a relatively new player on the market but it basically tags people in whatever email system you're using so ActiveCampaign, Ontroport, Infusionsoft based on the activity and the actions that they've taken in the course website and that's how we trigger emails when you complete module two and reminder emails when you don't complete module two because you're too busy binging on Netflix and that's what WP Fusion looks like we use Intercom for our in-app messages which is just amazing it's an absolute game changer we use Twilio to send text messages to remind people to get off Netflix and get on a coaching call and that's what Twilio looks like and we use Vimeo Business to host all of our videos because their price point makes perfect sense and they have great analytics and everything is built on Amazon S3 and AWS for speed and scalability by our wonderful developer Ben May from the code company who's based in Queensland I don't understand any of that but I'm glad he does all I know is it costs me a lot of money every month and that's what Amazon AWS looks like and of course we use Slack for internal communications who love Slack we love Slack we use Gridix which is a fantastic this is an interesting case point in itself Gridix is this great little analytics tool to measure the engagement of your Facebook groups and it is built on top of WordPress so when you log into Gridix to have a look at the analytics in your Facebook groups I thought this is really familiar so of course I went view source code the whole thing's built on top of WordPress it's a good little case study so that measures the engagement of our students in our Facebook communities and we use Asana to try and manage our projects internally and to avoid distraction so that ladies and gentlemen is our case study with online courses with WordPress I strongly encourage any of you if you think you've got a course in you now are the glory days for online learning and online courses there is a huge wave coming and we are all sitting ready to ride that wave so if you've been thinking about this now is the time to go home and start taking action and this technology is making it easier and easier every day and I think I've got 52 seconds left to just stand here


I've developed a super deep level behavior profile of Vladimir Putin for his most common tells. His most common deception indicators are hand to mouth, an increase in blink rate, which is how often we blink, fidgeting behavior, hesitancy, freeze behavior, where he's suddenly more still than he was before, an increase from his baseline of palm down gestures. So he's talking like this and palm down gestures start going up. And this is based on about a hundred hours of his statements.


They are saying almost every human being has about enough plastic in them to manufacture like a credit card. The many problems that children are facing today, young children having thyroid problems is largely connected with this plus autism, various things are associated with this. How many problems you're getting out of this you do not know. So, Sadhguru, majority of your work is towards sustainable solutions, but also a lot of your work is to raise human consciousness. What role can an individual or small businesses, communities, societies can play? See, these are not two different things. Human beings living consciously and sustainable solutions are not two different things. The only reason why we are doing things in ways that it is not sustainable is because we are not conscious. We are not doing our activity on this planet in a conscious manner. Everybody has their compulsions. Individual people have compulsions, societies have compulsions, nations have compulsions. The global reality has its compulsions. To fulfill these compulsions we are doing things which are taking away the basis of our existence. This is like a classic story from the panchatantra where a man is sitting at the wrong end of the branch and cutting it. He is going at it because he wants to be successful, but when he succeeds he will fall. That's where we are. We are doing this kind of silly activity. When we succeed, we will fall. Every one of us should structure our lives in such a way. What are we using today? Where will this go? This much consciousness. Whatever I'm using today, where will this go tomorrow? Where will it end up? What is its ultimate goal? Now one important thing is in India, as a nation we have been a textile nation for hundreds of years or thousands of years. There was a time when we clothed entire Europe and Arabia. Literally sixty percent of the clothing was from India. Nobody made exquisite clothing like this on the planet even today. Nobody can make something like what you're wearing, all right? Right. Nowhere else on the planet. Because the skills, these skills won't happen overnight. This is not something you can go to a textile course for four years and pick it up. This is something innately developed. In each region they had all these different kinds of weaves, different kinds of dyes. With whatever local material they came out with such exquisite weaves, over one hundred and thirty two weaves. Distinct weaves were there at the beginning of this century. Right now almost sixty-five to seventy of them are near extinction. We are making some efforts in that, we'll talk about it later. But textile has been our way of doing things. We need to go back to that. This has been disturbed essentially during the British era when they wanted to systematically break the Indian textile strength because they wanted to build Manchester, which they successfully did, okay? Now people are very proud to call Coimbatore the Manchester of India. I said, please don't do that, huh? Let them call Manchester Coimbatore of England. Because this is where the real weaving and spinning and everything, the cotton was, all right, textiles. This is the region in which it happened. And in every region there are unique ways. If we bring this back, even in reasonable context, if we develop the needed markets, if we revive the skills that are there, I'm telling you, in this country easily it will employ anywhere between two hundred to three hundred million people within the next five to six years' time. Some efforts are being made by the textile industry. Many policies have changed. We have also been working with them. But it's not enough if you want a revolution. Above all, for all this you need a market. That's why you are very important. That's one reason I'm talking to you. Because we need a market. Market should be sensitive to aesthetics. Market should be sensitive to sustainability. Right now, they want to go to some shop and buy ten nylon clothes. If they go shopping, nobody is buying one. Because they buy two dozen, like this. One, two, three they'll wear. After that it's got bored. And again, by the time they can wear these two dozen, already they've shopped once again, all right? Eighty-five percent of the clothing on the planet within one year goes to the landfills. Hundred billion pieces of clothing is sold on the planet every year. Hundred billion, all right? And eighty-five billion pieces of clothing go into the landfills every year. And most of it is polyester. The one of the most dangerous form of pollution is polyfiber is floating everywhere. It's in the air, it's in the soil, it's in the water. Some researchers have found placenta. You know, the, the polyfiber is in the placenta. That in your mother's womb, you catch it. Some of them are saying we don't know how to what extent these numbers are correct. But it is right, it's in the right direction. They're saying almost every human being has about enough plastic in them to manufacture like a credit card. You know, you have to pay. Someday if you carry a credit card in your system, you keep paying, all right? So this much plastic is all over the place, but everybody is trying to shoot the low-leaf plastic bag. I'm not saying you shouldn't shoot at it, but it's fashionable to do that. That's what is problem. Because the low-leaf plastic bag which is floating on the street, some bag, some rag picker picks it up and you know, in India, that recycling is actually at a very good pace. Not because of your sustainable consciousness, because of poverty, they're picking it out. Plastic bottles are recycled nearly ninety percent in India. It's only country like that. This is not because we are very ecologically aware, simply because people are poor and they're picking out all the bottles. Anyway, one way or the other it's happening. But the polyfiber, the amount of damage it's causing, the way it enters the body, especially children are wearing polyfiber because polyfiber is very, you know, flammable. Because of that, they are coating it with, you know, fire-resistant chemicals. These chemicals have been found to be carcinogenic. The many problems that children are facing today, young children having thyroid problems is largely connected with this non-flammable chemicals that they are using on the clothes. Plus, autism, various things are associated with this. How many problems you're getting out of this, you do not know. But for sure many, many problems are coming your way. A child till fifteen, sixteen years of age should never wear anything polyfiber. They must wear organic clothing. Not that adults can, but at least you are more resistant to those things beyond seventeen, eighteen years of age. But till then it is very important you must wear organic fiber. But now the problem is how many clothes do you have? And you can't do that with cotton or silk or something, so you end up buying poly-poly, okay? It's cheaper, so lot… lot of them are going for… See, even cotton and other things can be made cheaper if we increase the volume. So one simple thing that I'm suggesting is you have influence in Telangana, you must push for this. I'm pushing for this in some states that at least the school uniforms must be cotton or linen or whatever they can afford, all right? But it should not be polyfiber. You cannot recycle, only one percent is being recycled because nobody uses this polyfiber just as it is. It is always mixed in a complex mix to get various textures and whatever. So you can never recycle that complex material. If it was just pure nylon or pure polyfiber, we could have recycled it. You cannot recycle it because it's mixed with various other things, so recycling is not possible. Only one percent of the polyfiber that you're using in terms of clothing is being recycled. Rest is just going into nature and it's coming back to us in so many different ways. A credit card in your heart.