hundreds or thousands of Iraqis were killed and it really showed us both the power of imagery intelligence and also the limitations. The other technical intelligence we use is signals intelligence and I won't go into a great deal of detail but suffice to say we have the ability to understand what is happening between two individuals on various communications. But at one point in time in a country far far away not Iraq or Afghanistan we were pursuing a target and we had interpreted listening to the two individuals on their devices that we thought again that they were going to link up with a very high-value target in this particular country. And so we stood ready to conduct a strike and as the operation evolved and we were continuing to pull in technical intelligence we took the opportunity and took the strike and while it was a bad guy it was not the bad guy we were looking for. And later on I was asked a question about the quality of the intelligence and how I viewed the risk and how that risk was in fact presented to the decision makers up the chain of command. And it is something as a user of intelligence and a conveyor of the quality of the intelligence and the need for action that I never forgot. Suffice to say and I'll talk a little bit more about it is you have to be certain that the quality of the intelligence you get is in fact reducing the risk. We have other types of intelligence where we have large sensor devices and we use this quite a bit in Iraq and Afghanistan to hopefully locate buried explosives homemade explosives. And what you would find is we would position these sensors on large aircraft and they could at times determine whether or not a particular route, a road had been dug up and a homemade explosive had been put in that road. Again the technology was good but it was hardly perfect and many times we would send assault folks in or explosive ordnance disposal folks in based on the intelligence we had to see if we could defuse the weapon and of course it turned out that it had been just some young boy digging in a road that had no bearing on the threat that we perceived it to be. And then of course there was always human intelligence and that is probably the hardest of the intelligence but frankly the most important and the most vital in terms of understanding the context. And of course human intelligence gives you a sense of the intent of the individual and nothing I think is harder to determine than the intent of a particular individual no matter whether you know them well or do not. You just never know what their next move will be. So what we have tried to do really since 9-11 as I have watched it closely is how do we go about improving the quality of intelligence? So in the eminent realm, in the area where we use imagery the quality of the image of course has increased dramatically. In the early days as I said in some cases the ISR that we had, the optical ball was what we would consider kind of standard definition. And so the quality of the image you got was sometimes a little grainy. Not that you couldn't see people very clearly but it didn't also operate well at night and so there were a lot of problems with it. As time has gone on and technology has gotten better and better the quality of that image has gotten to the point where it is as clear as I'm looking at you in some cases. And that's very, very important because again as I said from the beginning the purpose of the intelligence is to buy down the risk. And if you don't understand the factors that are involved in creating that risk if you're looking at a picture that isn't as clear as you think it is then that risk is greater and you're not going to be able to provide the options that you want to the decision makers. You also need more angles. So I talked about the fact that we had one predator. So if one predator is good more predators are better. And the fact of the matter is again a single angle on a target in particularly as we were looking at Afghanistan many times we would be looking at a compound in Afghanistan and the angle of the view was obstructed by the compound itself. And so consequently you went in without perfect intelligence sometimes without even good intelligence but at least it was better because you had some angle. But of course pulling one predator and multiple predators together and working them with fire support that you get from the AC 130 is one of our gunships with the with the aircraft in the sky. All that requires a very delicate and sophisticated dance and that's very difficult to do but it's important to make sure that under the imagery aspect of this you have multiple angles. The longer dwell again fortunately over time what we found with some of our imagery platforms is they were limited in timeframe. Before we had the predators we actually had a helicopter with a small optical ball on it. Well the helicopter was limited by the fuel and therefore every once in a while in the middle of an operation you would have to land the helicopter. It was the only helicopter with the only optical ball we had and we realized you just couldn't do business that away. So we invested a lot not only we special operations but we the United States government invested a lot in making sure we had multiple platforms in order to do the job. And then we talked about the timeframe when you look at the PDB's and what they provide the president in terms of strategic intelligence and operational intelligence on the battlefield and Frank Denious asked the question yesterday to director Brennan and the panel and I about the quality of intelligence and what can you get down to the soldier today and what you can get to the soldier today is unprecedented. The soldier in the foxhole if you will can have a terrific view of the battlefield a visual view of the battlefield. But if that view is time late and I associate it with I have a box at the stadium to watch the football games and the interesting thing is we have a number of TVs up in the box but the TVs are about five seconds late. We know what that means when you're watching football and you hear everybody cheer and you're looking up going I wonder what they're cheering about and then five seconds later you begin to find out what they were cheering about. Well in the in the world of intelligence when that intelligence has to be so timely because it is being relayed to the operator the soldier on the ground five seconds can be a lifetime and five seconds can mean the difference between life or death. So as you look at the imagery you have to work on ensuring that the quality of the image is good that the multiple angles are out there that you can increase the dwell time and that the timing between the actual capture of the image and the return is as small as you can make it on the signals on the technical intelligence this is really about ensuring that we are able to collect on a variety of different platforms and I won't go into a lot of detail there but the other aspect of this is making sure that the analyst you have and the interpreters that you have are good in a lot of cases as we are chasing bad guys around the world some of the dialects that we are trying to translate are not common and therefore there may be one or two people in the Department of Defense that speak this particular dialect and they may not speak it as well as you would hope they would speak it so in the middle of a very complex operation as you are trying to interpret the nature and the intent of the bad guys through technical intelligence the nature of that translator is absolutely critical I learned this the hard way as well when I was giving a speech to the graduating West Point Academy folks in Afghanistan and I got up and gave what I thought was a rousing, fabulous speech to the graduating class and I got a very kind of polite applause at the end and I thought, boy, I must have missed the mark the Chief of Staff of the Afghan Army came up to me afterwards and he said your translator is terrible he misrepresented everything you said and so if you take that to an intelligence standpoint and you realize if you do not have the right translator and if that translation is somehow skewed then again your understanding of the intent therefore your understanding of the risk is entirely different and the analysts and of course we have a lot of analysts that look at these sort of things and it is the same problem set you not only have to have translations but you have to have analysts that understand in context what is going on on the human side we really do look at the training and we have and the CIA are without a doubt the world's finest when it comes to intelligence analysis and we have great folks across the intelligence community at the Defense Intelligence Agency the NASA Geospatial Agency all the parts of the IC some fabulous Intel analysts but clearly what separates us us the US intelligence community I think from any other organization in the world is the quality of the training that these analysts go through in order to be analysts and what you find again it's like any other aspect of life you have the rookie analysts and you have the experienced analysts the reason you have the quality of PDB briefer you have is because that individual has spent a lot of time being an analyst is able to convey the analytical information in context and that's very important to anybody that's receiving intelligence and then again understanding the behavior of the individual so a lot of times we're chasing people that we know very little about somebody in one of the organizations with the intelligence community knows something about them and that person becomes a subject matter expert on a particular individual and sometimes there's only one person or maybe one or two people and you really do rely a lot on them to provide you the analysis of that particular individual in that target set so as you look at the various types of intelligence what we learned very quickly in the war in Iraq is really where we started this is that you have to be able to fuse the intelligence you have to do what we call using all source intelligence and we've always known that the intelligence agencies have always understood that but sometimes on the battlefield you tended to take whatever you got an image a technical intelligence a human intelligence and that became a little bit of your only source intelligence what you have to be able to do is fuse them all together it is the fused intelligence that now reduces your risk again so I go back to my scenario of the room if all you have in that room is a camera that is observing the hostage and the hostage taker then you don't understand the dialogue that's going on between the two if you have the dialogue but you don't have a photo or you don't have a constant video stream then again you have an incomplete picture so what is critical is to be able to take these various types of intelligence and fuse them together and this is again a very important aspect of what we did in Iraq not only did we fuse them but then we recognize it from the military standpoint we also were not the sole source of intelligence when it came to the various types of intelligence so we would bring in CIA DIA National Geospatial Agency FBI Iraqi Intelligence and we would we created these fusion cells also the conventional forces were part of these fusion cells and we realized that if you wanted to be able to pass information and use information you needed to understand what was going on the ground sometimes the soldiers who were closest to the problem set could give you a better insight into what was going on in the ground then the analyst that was back in Baghdad or potentially Langley or Fort Bragg so you pulled all the subject matter experts together in a single place and you would look at a target set and you would fuse the intelligence and you would use this inter-agency process to have the best intelligence you could and therefore again reduce the risk on a particular mission we used a lot of what we call Metcalfe's law and Bob Metcalfe created this law some time ago that talks about telecommunications networks and in it when you look at a telecommunications network what he said was if you add a new node to a telecommunications network so if you have A and B and then you add C what you get is an exponential increase in the power of that communications now C and B have got to be able to talk equally as strong as A and B but this concept of Metcalfe's law frankly applies to kind of human networks as well so every time you add a node you exponentially increase the power of your knowledge and I think the power of the intelligence that is out there so as we created these joint inter-agency task force these gyatus we called them and we had analysts from all the Intel communities we had analysts and operators from the military and from all the other constituents that were out there fighting the battle the State Department etc. you had a much better look at the picture on the ground and this was vitally important and again with each node you added you had a better understanding of the picture so we took this concept of fusion and we started off small with fusion cells we created these locally grown joint inter-agency task force in Iraq and then Afghanistan we began to partner the Iraq and Afghanistan node when we found out the enemy network did not see any boundaries between Iraq and Syria and Afghanistan and Pakistan and other places and then we created this global gyatum where we could look at the problem set globally and each iteration along the way we became better and better so now let's talk about the intelligence and its role to the policy makers and I will use a little bit again another football analogy if I can you know when you look at two opposing teams on the football field and if you said again I'm going to have perfect intelligence on my opponent and I'm going to be able to steal their signals I'm going to know exactly what I need to know about each player which one's hurt which one stayed up the night before how fast are they you know everything about their scheme maneuver their defense their offense you know how they're going to play on the football field and you say I got it I have perfect intelligence on that football team the problem is if that football team happens to be the Dallas Cowboys and you're a high school football team I don't care how good your intelligence is it's not going to help you so this is the point for policy makers it's not just about the intelligence it's about using the intelligence to understand what your options are and how to apply those options against the problem set I had a chance to talk to the the Texas football team a couple of weeks ago and I was talking to them about the Notre Dame game the Notre Dame game of 2007 and in the Notre Dame game this is Notre Dame in the Naval Academy so the Naval Academy had not beaten the University of Notre Dame in 43 years it was a given that Notre Dame was going to beat the Naval Academy and they had I think half a dozen four and five star recruits on the Notre Dame team and I asked the players on the Longhorns I said I want y'all to raise your hand somebody out here raise your hand on those of you that wanted to go to the Naval Academy and play football of course nobody raised their hand and I said exactly right so you had the case of the Dallas Cowboys against the high school team well the game goes into its first overtime conclusion of the regular time frame goes into its first overtime goes into its second overtime goes into its third overtime and the Navy beats Notre Dame 47 to 43 and my point to them and it is a point that should not be lost here is Navy studied Notre Dame Navy understood what Notre Dame's strengths were and Navy understood where their weaknesses were and they developed a plan they reduced the risk to a manageable level to defeat Notre Dame and that's really when you look at it that's the value of intelligence to policymakers so we'll talk about the Ben Laden raid the CIA did a magnificent job along with the NSA and NGA and others in providing us the operators the intelligence for the Ben Laden raid and it was as good as we could have gotten it but the fact of the matter is we didn't know what the inside of the compound look like because we're just not able to quite to do that we weren't exactly sure whether in fact it was Ben Laden and we thought it was about a 50-50 chance at best there was a lot of things we didn't know about the compound where Ben Laden was but when we presented it to the president it was well Mr. President we're the Dallas Cowboys and they're the high school football team we will be successful in this we have the intelligence we need but our team is better than their team and that is the nature of what policymakers have got to grapple with what are their options what are their options what the president did for me and the Ben Laden raid was he said I don't only want you to be the Dallas Cowboys I want you to be the Dallas Cowboys that won the Super Bowl I want you to make sure that there are no that you have reduced that risk to absolutely the smallest possible level you've got great intelligence but now come up with every plan B, C, D and E so that we are buying down all the contingencies we did that through good intelligence we took the intelligence we had and we continued to mitigate the risk so now let's take that scenario of mono a mono a single football team against a single football team the Cowboys against a high school team my seals against what we thought the threat was the Ben Laden compound and now let's look at Dash or ISIS as people call it think of the complexity of a situation like we have in Syria and Iraq this is not the single room in the thought experiment this is a room with another room and another room and another room and another room and another room and another room these are problems on top of problems on top of problems so when you have multiple factors involved you have ISIS you have the Syrian army under Assad you have the moderate Syrians you have our allies in the Turks and the Jordanians and the Saudis and the Emirates and the Iraqis you have the Iranians and the Russians so you can see the dilemma that occurs when now all of a sudden what was a nice clean picture gets multiplied a hundred fold so therein lies the problem for decision makers but I would offer that you begin to slice the problem into definable areas and you tackle the best options you can so what are we going to do against ISIS what are my options how do I build the better team against ISIS how do I build the better team to help build the Syrian military up how do I deal with the Iranians how do I deal with the Iraqis how do I encourage the Iraqis to be more forceful in each one of these cases you build an intelligence portfolio that provides the president the national security advisor options for dealing with these problems the great thing about the options in an area like that unlike the bin Laden raid for me where it was the military against the military target you have the advantage of having the diplomatic option so diplomacy can work economic sanctions can work the military obviously is an option law enforcement is an option so the president has to have the intelligence he has to look at all his options and then in every case he's got to work to buy down that option so he has the best course to go forward and so I will end just with again a couple of final thoughts here as you look at intelligence and as I said what intelligence brings not only to the battlefield but I think to the to the policymakers is the intelligence is there to reduce the risk to reduce the risk to a manageable level so then you can apply your options against the risk that you know and sometimes the risk you don't know the intelligence is there also because it's not always just about offense and my business it's almost always about offense it is the nature of special operations to be on the offensive to go against a defended position but that's not always the case the president and the national security team also is looking for opportunities to be able to play defense against the threat that might come from overseas we have to work continuously to improve the nature of our intelligence and when you look at the director of national intelligence and the director of the CIA and the other the other directors and leaders the Intel community that's what they do every day because the game changes every day the enemy is a thinking enemy the enemy is a reactive enemy and every step of the way you're trying to get ahead of their reaction because every time you come up with a solution I guarantee you it won't be long before the enemy comes up with something that counters that and now you're off on another another tangent in order to tackle that aspect of the intelligence so you are constantly battling this this loop if you will of the enemy being able to adapt and then again as I said the whole purpose I see it from my standpoint as a military commander and I think from the from the standpoint of policymakers is that that intelligence helps them with the options that they've got to be able to put on the table to do what is best for the United States of America I thank you very much and Mark wherever you are would you like me to take any questions and and I can't tell you who killed Kennedy I don't don't know that I need a few questions Mark said I can take one or two questions so yes sir fantastic for Chancellor McRaven or McRaven or both it's Bill to my friends and and I'm happy to be called Bill or Chancellor my time as an admiral is behind me and I'm thrilled to be the Chancellor of the University of Texas System okay Chancellor McRaven have a question for you about a media report that came out four years ago regarding a Freedom of Information Act request for the Osama bin Laden death photos right did you yes or no did you destroy the bin Laden photos in request to a FOA request by judicial watch so they could not get them yeah thanks we've answered that question and that's for the record already so you can go back and check the record on that thanks Sasha Parsons here third year student at UT I had a question for you you spoke a lot about or we've heard a lot today about how policymakers are consumers of intelligence and you spoke in about the very strong relationships between the military and the intelligence community I was wondering if you can go a little bit deeper about what kind of training military officials get about how to be good consumers for intelligence and what kind of questions to ask so they get the information they need that's a great question and I'll tell you we have learned so much as tragic as 9-11 was and it was incredibly tragic we have learned a lot I think as a nation on how to deal with pulling the interagency together how military officers can be better consumers of intelligence one of the things that really helps if you go back to the Goldwater Nichols Act of 1986-87 timeframe it told the military that you really need to become joint officers as a naval officer I was required to spend time with the Army and the Air Force in order to be jointized and when 9-11 happened we realized in the military and the rest of the interagency did as well that if you want to learn and understand how intelligence is built how other people think about problem sets then you have to have this interagency flavor to you so what has become kind of standard at least within the military certainly within special operations is that we cross-pollinate all the time with our interagency partners so a young Army captain who in years prior to 9-11 would have gone through the standard schools at Fort Wachuka or someplace else and they would learn how to do Army intelligence now what they get an opportunity to do as a young captain, Army captain is they will spend time at the CIA or they will spend time at the National Geospatial Agency or the Defense Intelligence Agency and they get a whole different look at one how the intelligence is developed, how it is produced and the questions to ask because they're around these great folks who do this for a living but by the time that captain becomes a Lieutenant Colonel and a battalion commander in a combat zone they are very well schooled and very well educated in the process and understand the questions to ask because they've been had an opportunity to live with the people to do this for a living Thank you Thank you Alright, one more question Okay, seeing none, thank you very much, appreciate it It is now my great pleasure to introduce our next speaker our nation's highest ranking intelligence officer Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper In his role as DNI, Director Clapper leads the United States Intelligence Community and serves as the Principal Intelligence Advisor to the President General Clapper retired from a distinguished career in the U.S. Armed Forces in 1995 as the Lieutenant General in the U.S. Air Force and Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency After working the private sector for six years General Clapper returned to government service in 2001 as the first civilian director of the National Imagery and Mapping Agency known today as the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency He then went on to serve as the Undersecretary of Defense on Intelligence for becoming DNI in 2010 Ladies and gentlemen, please join me in welcoming our Director of National Intelligence, General James Clapper Thank you, Mark, for that kind introduction and thanks for being such a great host And for whomever decided I should follow Chancellor McRaven I'll offer a much more sarcastic thanks It seems to happen every time I come here In all seriousness, Bill McRaven is a great American a skilled warrior and someone I consider a personal hero He's a national icon And yes, now I follow the advice and counsel without question that Bill McRaven has offered And I know you're all familiar with his iconic advice The first thing is to make your bed I know you've heard that And so I did have to It was a very early get up for me this morning because I flew here this morning So I was going to endeavor to make my bed Just like Bill advises Except I got a gruggy but assertive voice from my wife Not this morning But I tried But he's right about that There is wisdom here If you can't do the little things right you never get the big things right And following Bill at the lectern is a big thing Bill did an excellent job of capturing the essence of the challenge for intelligence To eliminate, which we rarely can do or at least reduce uncertainty for a decision maker Whether that decision maker is in the Oval Office or to stretch the metaphor, an Oval Foxhole So Bill, thank you once again for your long and distinguished service and friendship Also I want to pay tribute to a mentor of mine Admiral Bobby Inman Just as he's mentored Admiral McRaven He's mentored me for a lot of years Admiral Inman officiated at my promotion ceremony for Colonel in 1980 35 years ago And I've never forgotten that He's been a great mentor to me ever since In fact, I'm very, very pleased and honored to be just a small part of this very significant milestone It's a significant milestone obviously for the Central Intelligence Agency But it is also one for the entire intelligence community This afternoon, John Brennan I thought did an excellent job of taking a long historical look at the President's daily brief along in terms of the year span I could not be prouder I could not ask for a better partner colleague friend and as we call each other Foxhole Buddy than John Brennan And I'm so proud of the relationship that we have had during not only going back to John's tenure in the White House and now in his great service as Director of CIA And he spoke very eloquently I thought about the significance of the PDB as did our panel members from the Kennedy and Johnson years By the way, the CIA modernization effort that John talked about Integrating the disciplines and capabilities across the agency reflects changes that we've been making as an intelligence community And they will make the agency faster and more responsive to world events John's superb leadership in bringing these changes about has been tremendous I could talk for hours about how these improvements at the CIA will make the entire IC better But I recognize I'm the last keynote speaker and I'm standing between you and the reception so I won't So today we've of course focused on a single, vital daily intelligence product PDB's as you've heard are at the apex of the intelligence production food chain I don't think any other nation on the planet would look back open and expose intelligence work with the significance of what we're declassifying One of my major takeaways from the controversies of the past few years has been that yes, we have to protect our secrets our sources and methods, our tradecraft but we have to be more transparent about the things that we can talk about because although for most of my 52 or so years in the intelligence business we haven't talked publicly about our work at least very much Now I think the American public expects us to talk about how we're using the power of US intelligence responsibly That's a lesson I personally believe we didn't learn quickly enough and that we, by the way, certainly includes me and so more and more we're discussing our work to help correct misunderstandings and to try to help people grasp what we do to show that we're worthy of America's trust and to prove that we make worthwhile contributions to the security of Americans and our friends and allies around the world It's why over the past two years the community has declassified thousands of pages of documents about our work and importantly about the oversight of our work that's conducted by all three branches of our government By publishing these declassified documents on our Tumblr site, I see on the record and pushing them out on Facebook and Twitter they reach millions of people in the US and around the world That includes as well our adversaries who have also learned a lot from our transparency and Admiral M. and I think spoke very compellingly about this dilemma but we believe transparency is worth the cost Releasing historical documents like we're doing today is another way we can talk about what we do while protecting the tradecraft behind today's intelligence work and I believe the PDBs we're releasing today are from a particularly interesting time in our nation's history I received my commission in the Air Force when Kennedy was president In fact in August of 1962 I met President Kennedy at the ROTC summer camp I was attending at Otis Air Force Base, Massachusetts and as luck would have it I was in the front row of the rope line and the President Kennedy came by and spoke briefly to each cadet most of whom, when he asked were planning to be pilots and he got to me and he asked me what I planned to do in the Air Force and I said I wanted to be an intelligence officer and he simply said that's good we need good intelligence officers never forgot that obviously so I also served a course in Air Force Intelligence through the Johnson's President Johnson's time in office and served two tours in Southeast Asia the first one in Vietnam and 1965 and 66 all to say this event has personal significance for me I think there is a certain relevance and symmetry to John opening today's event and my briefly closing it and I'm here of course because ten years ago under the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act the management of the PD process moved from the CIA the Central Intelligence Agency to the office of the Director of National Intelligence and so as a result of that in the past decade the PDB truly has become an IC product as John mentioned but we've tried to build on the PDB process try to build on the foundation of CIA's tradition of excellence and I think I can say and I'm proud to say it that I believe the intelligence community writ large is living up to that CIA legacy CIA continues to be the mainstay of producing PDB articles but the rest of the IC makes major contributions as well all 16 components of the community every intelligence agency and element has contributed material that has made it to the president it is truly a community effort it's been an honor this afternoon to be at this library to talk about the work of our top analysts President Johnson himself once said quote a president's hardest task is not to do what is right but to know what is right having worked closely with and for our current president I can absolutely vouch for President Johnson's words knowing what is right deciding what is right is is the president's hardest task and the IC can't decide for him what is right we wouldn't want to but when it comes to national security it is our job to give him the intelligence he needs to help make those hard decisions I can also vouch that our current president is a faithful and voracious consumer of intelligence and he's been right there with us through the difficulties of the past few years I believe he has a profound understanding of the intelligence community the intelligence process where his intelligence comes from and importantly the men and women who do all that so today as we celebrate the release and publication of the documents that inform presidents Kennedy and Johnson each the most powerful man in the world in his turn I want to assure the American public that today's intelligence and today's PDBs live up to the CIA's tradition of excellence exemplified by the briefings you can now read here in President Johnson's library and at today's PDBs tap the excellence and the diversity of thought of the entire intelligence community so again it was a great honor for me to be here and play a small part in this really significant milestone not only in the history of the CIA but the intelligence community thanks very much thank you very much General Clapper to conclude our conference I'm going to bring up my friend Joe Lambert once again Joe I want to thank you and the CIA for not only releasing these documents which are really a treasure trove to history but for helping to organize today's conference so thank you so much as Mark said this concludes the event today the documents that were referenced throughout the day are live right now on the CIA's website so you can gain access to them right now would you join me in thanking all of our senior intelligence community speakers today in the front row both current and former I think they did a terrific job giving you insights into the PDB and the process and as I thank you we have a small token of our appreciation we'd like to give three organizations so if I could ask for those right now so the first one is for Mark up to Grove in the LBJ Library for your help it is a nice piece of crystal that has the CIA seal and today's event on it Mark thank you we have one for the University of Texas so Adam McRaven if you could come up for this please and we have one for the Association of Former Intelligence Officers so Jim Hughes if you're in the audience thank you folks safe travels home


We talked about, you know money cars women maybe But today when you sit down and talk to people what do they say they say look what kind of apps I have Like you're swapping apps in the bar.  That's what we do now at the bar. That's a it's a very strange world That makes you wonder about where we're going. I think basically The future is going to be very very interesting Because one thing we can imagine of course now is that everyone else in Brazil and Russia India China Indonesia Worldwide all these people are coming online in vast numbers. They're called the other three billion Okay, and Google has invested in the company called O3b the other three billion they're putting 18 satellites into a low-flying orbit for the southern hemisphere to go online Without having to use a telecom So imagine this you can make phone calls without a SIM card Like if you're in Jakarta or Singapore or Lagos, Nigeria one of the most beautiful places in the world Just kidding now if you go there and you can make a phone call without actually having an operator and you can get on the Web for free. This is all coming So I work as a futurist my Twitter handle is G Leonhardt My company is called the Futures Agency and we're sort of as it says we're agents for the future We're trying to help companies to reinvent themselves. So it's a very simple mission Accomplished usually in 10 minutes, but just kidding So let's start right here. I mean you're all aware of this We have an explosion and how people use the mobile internet In fact, some people are saying that we're going to have maybe 10 15% of the internet on mobile devices in five years I think it's going to be the reverse 90% of all internet traffic will be on mobile devices Because these boxes over here computers right there for work That's what they do Mobile internet is not about work. It's about connecting. It's about banking and about buying stuff about recommending about Downloading you know all these things sharing things right so look at the traffic that we're seeing here I mean from a measly 300 petabytes or so in five years to 7,000 petabytes a month I mean just mind-boggling So let's ask a simple question How are the telecom companies the mobile operators the ISP is going to make money when they have to pay for all this throughput? Every single telecom and mobile operator around the world and we work with a lot of them is going to move up into media content entertainment and advertising It's called the telemedia economy and This will bring a huge amount of money Also into things like books and publishing and music in five years or probably sooner We will all have music bundled into a mobile phone So you subscribe to vote a phone or whatever you have here right or other local providers and the music is included So it's going to be an interesting world I mean if you see how much data we're consuming of course in Korea people are already consuming You know, I don't know 30 30 gigs a month, but look at the growth here I mean, it's absolutely mind-boggling in all countries around the world and 50 billion Devices connected to the internet in 2020 Devices right so that's also things like like cars and and Bookshelves and stuff you buy at the grocery store and subway locations and banner ads outside and so on and so on So data explosion will be absolutely huge So we're entering what I call a mobile society If you haven't gotten with the program to get your company on mobile, you're in big trouble That's basically where all the action is going to be So if your website doesn't look good on the mobile phone, it's time you fix this And this is something that's crucial because obviously most people will look at stuff on mobile devices of all different shapes and forms Not just iPads of course, but all over the world So there's this key question of course now publishers are saying what is cool because now on the mobile We can charge people but it's not so easy It's not just putting up a mobile app and saying okay people will pay five dollars for wired magazine on the iPad Turns out a hundred thousand did it for the first edition and now it's like eight or nine thousand So that didn't quite work out in the same way. So now what's happening is the question is really about mobile Not not just about apps. I mean apps are just one way to use the mobile and the open Internet HTML 5 Of course is going to drastically explode there as well open apps Clina Perkins who is an investor I think in Facebook They summarize very nicely what's going on today. It's about social. It's about local.  It's all about these things and we didn't have any of this really two years ago The Internet was just the Internet of webpages, right? So it was a primitive version of the Internet you could say now It's all about this and We're looking at a global budget of roughly one trillion dollars that is spent on reaching us called advertising Advertising marketing public relations all that stuff that nobody really wants to hear You know lies and eruption those kind of things That's all going to move on to the mobile onto social networks onto interactivity and video Was a huge opportunity for all of us I think now this is basically our reality, right? I mean, it's interesting today. I read an article just this morning came in my inbox and said Facebook will beat Google because Google just has fossil fossil information old like museum type of information All right, because when you go to Google and you search for best sushi in London You'll find all kinds of stuff including the Geat Michelin and what have you right? But it's not from yesterday if you go to search or Twitter.com when you're in London You put in sushi London and you see reviews and when you get to the place. They're still sitting there eating So it's real live information And maybe sometimes a review aren't on us, but then you can go and complain to them, right? I said yesterday at the dinner when we had you know If in Germany if you go to a restaurant you put your iPhone on the table You bring up TripAdvisor put the app on you just put on the table like this you will get better service Because people are saying wow this this guy is going to make a bad comment about you know and and they know what TripAdvisor is Believe me, right? So it's about nowness And when we're searching for information and this is what apps can do of course. They're about now. They're not about yesterday There's also bad parts to this because obviously it's not always valid to just look for now You know just like it's not valid to always look on the surface But basically Facebook is of course the provider of this nowness effect It's all about what's happening now And you know this is why I have my app here. You can download for free on the internet Also for Android is because this nowness effect is really really important People want to track what you're doing where you are what you're saying and so on. It's very important. This is a very interesting app Last night never happened. It's called You can go and wipe out all of the posts from last night when you were drunk posting on Twitter and Facebook So this is a very popular app, right? I don't know. I think it's free, but I'm not sure I'm they can charge for this unless you can't sell music on the internet, but you can sell this right? It's kind of a an interesting effect. There's also a really great app I like a lot called type and walk if you have a blackberry you can download this app And you can see the street in front of you through the camera while you're typing. It's also very useful Anyway after nowness. It's also about hearing us right nowness and hearing us that people are interested Where we are and this checking-in thing is going to be absolutely huge, but it's going to be built in Into everything we do Because it's very important to share locations for example when you're out in a soccer stadium watching a game It's very useful to see where your friends are sitting Wouldn't be that useful when you're out in Amsterdam Doing all kinds of things so maybe you wouldn't switch that off But it's a different reality when you get into nowness Right basically connecting with people and this of course is mostly done by kids today And then we have this interesting convergence that's happening is Newspapers are becoming TV stations and TV stations are becoming newspapers and and record companies are becoming publishers and so on So we have this convergence right books you can watch in TV you can read So guess what if you're in the media business today? That means you're in all of the media business and That's a real challenge because most journalists aren't so happy to be on video They never signed up to be on video or to make an audio podcast, right? But that's our reality It's a multimedia world now. It's a cross-media platform And then we have this this is a huge change in terms of money This is what gives the banks up at night and companies like visa American Express PayPal Mobile apps that you can pay with I Adventure to say in five to ten years. We won't be using a lot of credit cards Here in Europe, of course credit cards are really established Just like America, but in developing countries people will use the mobile app to send money. This is Google Wallet Works with an NFC chip near field communication If you download the app you have the chip on you can go in a grocery store and pay with this thing You can already do that of course in Sweden and other places, right? But imagine this right imagine you can go somewhere Anywhere in the world you can send the person sitting next to you who has just given you a book, right? You can send them $10 through the mobile That is going to be the reality very very soon and apps will do that as well and Facebook money Facebook credits Will become the biggest currency after the dollar I'm not joking. Maybe even before the dollar Bad dollar for the bad thing for maybe the euro. You know who knows I don't hope so But basically what happened on Facebook is that you can make money and you can spend money So if you buy Facebook credits, you can already buy real-life things like Delta Airlines tickets or Warner Brothers movie downloads you can watch Batman on Facebook You can already do that. I don't know why you would do that, but you can do that So money 2.0 is a huge thing because money is content after all that money is moving on to the web into the cloud And now we have all these companies getting into apps Of course, you have noticed that now there's apps on the computer and widgets that you can install there All right very soon. We have apps on the television Every single television will be connected to the internet in the next two years There won't be a television. That's not on the internet automatically onto your wireless network Doing all these things so you can have your widgets and flicker you can really be distracted all the time But Audi now says okay, they're getting into make an app So very soon you can download an app and the speedometer can be a Disney, you know a Mickey Mouse or something You know you can change that you can change all the things in the car And the other thing that Audi is doing is they're working on something very interesting. Here's a short video on this The self-driving car Why in the world would you buy a car that you're not driving yourself, right? I mean, this is of course mad, right, but Audi knows that in the next five to ten years Self-driving cars where we just sit there and do our email or whatever or eat or other things, you know Audi knows that this is going to happen and this is going to be a big part of their business Which is cars that drive themselves So all of a sudden we're basically looking at new roles in a new ecosystem So telecom companies will get in the movie business and they will get involved with entertainment Publishers will also get involved in that end of course on with telecoms and so on so we're going to Routely change how we do things and basically what we see now is That if you have kids, you know what I'm talking about, right Kevin Kelly says we're no longer people of the book We're people of the screen and This is a whole new reality People of the screen are just not the same kind of people Because they can instantly rate things they can recommend stuff they can forward things they can share Right now 23 million uploads every day on Flickr 23 million new photos 20 22 billion minutes spent per day on Facebook That's every fourth minute on the internet and what are people doing there? They're sharing stuff, right? That's what they do there So the idea of people of the screen is going to be among us I mean we're talking about huge branding possibilities direct connections with fans There's a website called Kickstarter that you may know there used to be one here in Holland called cello band But Kickstarter allows people to fund projects that they like directly and Last year Kickstarter raised 47 million dollars for people where you can go and say I want to write a book My fans will fund my next book. I mean, of course, it doesn't work for everyone But it's a direction that we go and then of course you have people doing all kinds of things with screens, you know That's kind of aberrations, but if you have kids, you know what I'm talking about. So here you see The typical weapon of the consumer This is an app called flight tracker If you use flight tracker, you can be sitting at the gate And if there's a delay in the flight you will know about this earlier than the woman at the gate Right because flight tracker has all the cool data and the woman knows nothing and she doesn't care And this is the worst part of course, right? So this is user empowerment. So, you know the flight is cancelled you you can be the first one to rebook I mean, this is what everybody's doing now. It's total consumer empowerment So the record labels the media publishers the companies the banks insurances the governments they have to put up with us now and If you're running a company that wants to sell anything if you don't empower the user It's basically day over for you I mean, this is the whole thing you need to do is basically empower people in an environment That doesn't mean your marketing is going to be about captive customers, you know in marketing We use all these military terms, you know campaigns and targets and and mission accomplished and you know It's when the army It's not about the army. It's more about Woodstock Marketing and it's basically saying okay. We need to untie these people and empower them. This is for my iPad last week. I Love the iPad. I love Apple stuff, but many of these things are just pure prison, right? I mean, I connect my iPad to a display and it says I can't play My iPad connected to this display because it would be possible in theory to record from the display Imagine the lunacy of this, right? I mean I pay three euros for this movie I can't use a display because I could possibly record it, right? I mean, what kind of paranoia is this? I mean, this is the best way to be hated I mean talking about the music business, right? I mean four years straight in America the recording industry or association of America is the most hated company in America and Why is that because they do this every single day? You can't do this because we have other plans for you. Just sign up So that's the antidote to the empowerment and what we're seeing right now the music industry has to be greatly Complimented on this the revenues have declined by 71 percent in 10 years So mission accomplished you've made yourself superfluous There's a lesson that we can learn from this right basically don't do this Anything you do to take away the power from the consumer they will find out They will make it impossible for you to do this because now everything That we do is moving into the cloud and yesterday was the announcement from Apple iCloud in my view Not really a big deal seemed bigger than it was but But we already know this Spotify is in fi all the cool music services Netflix in America, right? Everything is moving in the cloud so music Movies television education All of our educational materials textbooks slide shows videos will all be available in the cloud already are from MIT for example In the open courseware project government records health You have an app that basically has your entire records in the phone And if you want to give your records to the art to the to the doctor when you when you're in a car crash or something You can just pull it off your phone All in the cloud I mean this is basically going to happen It's going to be a huge change in terms of how we live because what we don't have the cloud we can't do anything It's like have you ever experienced when you have car navigation and you're in the middle of a city You have to make a turn and it goes off. There's no satellite, right? So then you're in trouble is that make your own gas that's a big problem So everything moving into the cloud and then we have a big change in society as we can see now on a worldwide level We can no longer make money by ourselves This is kind of interesting because until now we have big empire's media companies banks make lots of money You know Disney Universal, you know, it was possible to run the business entirely by yourself But in the last 10 years, we've come up with companies that are essentially networked companies They're they're actually co-creating a model. That's Google eBay Skype Twitter 80% of Twitter traffic does not come from Twitter.com It comes from a thousand companies who built the tools on top of Twitter Like Hootsuite and Tweetdeck and all the cool stuff that we're using and if Twitter goes offline All of these things are gone as well So we're now entering in the interdependent society. This is a great movie They just came out connected the film calm Here's a short clip from this movie so you can understand what I'm trying to illustrate here So this is the business model of the future, right? Don't refuse this. You have no choice You cannot actually be completely independent and make it work. It's not possible Because everything is connected now every commercial process Every buying and selling is connected whether it's business to business or consumers. It's about interdependency And of course, that's what apps are teaching us as well But we have to connect to other people's databases, right? The coolest stuff today happens through API's application platform interfaces So you can you can mash up Google data and Twitter data and Facebook data and all kinds of other thing and for example Flipboard that you may know, right? It's a great app would be impossible without this The Guardian the most popular English-speaking online newspaper in the world right now They give away all of their stories and their data through an API You can just go in and create your own newspaper from their data It's very powerful So now we're also people of the cloud. I'm sure Steve Jobs very happy about this one Because now we like this right we'd like to live in a fluid society So when you go to Swiss dot com or luftron the dot com you can buy a ticket online, but you can't rebook You have to call them and guess why because they don't like you to understand how all the rebooking works Easy jet you can do whatever you want Okay, you have to pay for it 30 euros. Okay, but you can do it. This is empowerment. Now what we have here is we like fluid stuff Anybody's using Spotify here any Spotify users. This is fluid. What a great business model I mean if the record labels wouldn't be so obsessed with killing it, maybe you would have a chance of having it around for a while So Spotify Instapaper anybody use Instapaper. It's a lifesaver. It's Instapaper is an app That allows you to download webpages and articles and read them offline Ever since I started using Instapaper, which is free in the basic version I'm saving a hundred pages a day of printing All right because it makes it fluid and easy anywhere I want I mean and all the other stuff just absolutely amazing right and of course the iCloud from yesterday Very soon. I think we have this right we have I think from Apple which will connect us very deeply into the Apple universe Yeah, I'm sure that's the next plan But jokes aside This is a very serious thing right this is extremely threatening to most of us because in fact We'd like to be the network and the network meaning ABC CPS universal You know Goldman Sachs Toyota big brands right the big central entity that you see here on the left But the reality is today because we're becoming a networked society That means we can find out stuff before I go to the meeting with you I'm gonna check out LinkedIn to see if I can find who you are Everybody does that now We're becoming a networked society So all of a sudden we're going from this idea of one to many, you know broadcasting to the idea of many to many And I can tell you one thing of course many to many is quite a chaos I mean this is Twitter is like 98% garbage, right? I mean, let's be honest. It's lots of stuff happens there that you don't want to see So you need filtering but the many to many is a very very interesting proposition because what it does is like it actually Relates we're going from MTV to YouTube Took 18 months for YouTube to become more relevant for kids than MTV 18 months. I Mean if you want to watch music videos or listen to music, where do you go? YouTube and MTV is still here, but of course they're really really struggling, right? And of course the biggest part is that people will start switching the advertising budgets So what companies are saying is like, okay, we used to advertise here, you know big television print which is declining heavily I'm especially here in Holland right radio They're shifting a trillion dollars advertising budget is a trillion dollars I mean, it's absolutely it's mind-boggling how much money people spend to reach us and pitch us stuff, right? It's shifting to the networked society So we're basically looking at situation to where you know the the Dutch broadcasters have to face the fact that Facebook is a broadcaster Facebook is going public next year. They will probably raise a hundred billion dollars They could buy all of the record labels But then it'll be five dollars each But just kidding They can get into the business of broadcasting right now they're broadcasting us to each other and that's it Right, but they can add movies or television shows and they will So if you're a broadcaster in this audience, I hope there's a few you have to get with the program and become networked Because you do have a great audience, but you have to actually be both.  I mean broadcasters will be around but in this world we're going from broadcast to broadband and This is why apps are so important because apps are of course they can be on television But we're going to a world of where we like to do this that we have the choice of 50,000 TV stations on the web and Of course the choice makes it hard to choose, right? But that's we'll have to have different program guides for this and also we're doing this right Seth Godin says all of us live in tribes and this is very true because it's a human factor, of course There's about a hundred fifty people around us that are important And they can be online offline or both of course, right? But basically we're connected through mobile devices and we're now living in a broadband world Did you know that every 10% increase in broadband or mobile penetration means 1% increase in GDP? People make more money when they're connected. That's a fact every single government around the world Wants people to go online to save money and produce new economies So now in a broadband society and we're we're completely different this model will be turned upside down So one thing we have to do all of us and this is hard because becoming networked means we actually have to listen I Should be talking because I'm not usually listen. I'm usually talking But we have to start listening because in a networked society. It's about conversation. It's not about monologue This is how you do stuff. This is how you actually learn stuff. This is how you make things work, right in New York Times has allowed Millions of people to log in and create their own page in the New York Times I have my own page there great move because you know as for example the Huffington Post many of you know Social news It's obvious what people can read what I read and we can share very powerful stuff Cosmopolitan magazine on Facebook you can read Wall Street Journal on Facebook You see how many companies are already getting more leads in terms of traffic from social networks than they are getting from Google See an end USA Today people magazine The the blue bar is traffic from social networks If you're not engaged in so-called social networks, right? You have to get in because it's about the network society. It's not about Facebook or Twitter It's about having a conversation You see how many pages and I'll get in the Facebook like button.  I mean it's absolutely mind-blowing. So this is your new television and radio. I Mean that's Twitter news network TNN be bigger than CNN in less than five years Put the fear of God into the cable guys. It's like cable television without the cable It's going to be absolutely huge and and there will be a tab here in about 12 months.  You have to become human. This is American Express the open forum Really cool app hundreds of thousands of people discussing financial stuff on the web and on the app hosted by American Express That makes them human even though they're definitely not human in terms of you know, they're obviously a big company But this makes them more tangible. This is really what it's all about. That's how you create apps Now the Amazon mantra in this context and if you if you use the Amazon apps It's pretty mind-boggling how it interfaces with all the other stuff that you're doing Especially Kindle and so on right their motto is nurture extreme customer satisfaction They'll do anything literally anything to make you happy They bought Zappos the most successful company on the web in the last couple years for billion dollars You could call the hotline at Zappos. I tried it myself because I wanted to see if it's true You can call the hotline and talk about your divorce problems With the person they will hang on the line for hours and they will give you therapy and Zappos. I mean, this is amazing Amazon just two months ago went and said we're gonna get in the movie business to distribute movies like Netflix And they're giving all of the American premium users which are free shipping 5000 movies for free to watch. It's a present So if you're an Amazon user in America, you can watch 5000 movies to stream for free Imagine if we can do that here. I mean, this would be a mind-boggling way forward Kids and the iPad Clearly if we're going to get into the future and make money with this way and actually generate revenues We have to think about web mobile native products native means native. You know means starting from there Not ending there We're not on the web. We're off the web, right? We're we're coming from the web So if you're coming up with a marketing strategy for digital natives, not kids, right? You got to think about what they do already not what you want them to do. I Mean, this is a whole different cup of tea. So if we're going to come up with apps They're not supposed to make money They must be unique. They must be irresistible. They must be totally affordable. They must be a wipeout And there are a few for example, I love these two flip board, of course is not from publishers Ha needless to say they didn't invent it themselves But this is the most popular app for reading now and the other one. I really like as popular science from Bernier in Sweden They really hit a goldmine because instead of saying that you have to buy the magazine every time It's $15 a year for all of the magazines if you like this kind of stuff. It's a good deal And it's really a great app So very soon those will be free because there'll be app sponsored by advertisers and so on Now we also have this idea that we can start selling direct This is where it gets really interesting, right? I mean imagine you have three billion people using apps Which will be roughly three to four years you know worldwide and Also imagine that we're going to have automated translation So all your Dutch stuff is available. Just hit the button here in Chinese Sounds like science fiction already works Google has already demonstrated software where I can make a phone call and speak in German and it comes out of Hungarian Already works. It's just it's cumbersome and a little bit expensive But basically Selling direct becomes important now because now we can say we're like these guys some O'Reilly publishing We can add in-app commerce so when people are ready to buy they can buy from us This will be a bit, you know, maybe a year or two until this really takes off But kindle for example Amazon now allows the authors to write short books Which I love because you don't have to spend a thousand hours.  You can write a 40-page book and it's a dollar or two dollars. It's a no-brainer, right? So a whole new format comes up So when you think about commerce on apps think about new formats think about new ideas rather than replicating The old stuff which won't work So apps are clearly not a magic wand. Here's our friend Rupert Murdoch He says we'll have young people reading newspapers It's a real game changer because now I can finally make more money It's not going to work They won't read newspapers. They will read news Take out the papers They're interested in use but it's all about the wrapping I mean if you look at here is like the amount spend on apps. It's quite interesting from the Wigan entertainment Congress recently But not a magic wand. This is even more depressing if you think about selling stuff, right?  Answer is would not pay for this 70 80 percent So what you have to do is you have to say well Let's see if we can bundle it and package it and include it and start with the free version and upsell The most successful business in this decade of the Internet is the gaming business What do they do? It's the addiction model They let us download stuff for free World of Warcraft you download you play for 10 hours and then it says now you played for 10 hours You can give us $20 and you can unlock a bunch of weapons Or you can get the next 50 levels and 80 percent of people are converting Because they're already in and it's not a lot of money So this kind of idea of packaging upselling right and clearly I get this question all the time Well, we have closed apps, you know the Apple universe or Android and open the answer is of course we'll have both Depends on what you like. We don't live in it and then yes or no world anymore This is of course unfortunate because we would like it to be more simple, but it's not right The reality is that we live in a completely fragmented world Some of us are quite happy to go with the closed Apple universe and I am part of that as well I play on both sides, right? But in general, I think it'll be easier With an open format So I wouldn't bet on closed formats being the winning proposition, but it's probably going to be in both directions So basically if you're looking to see where the money is, you know, it's the cloud the crowd and mobile devices That's our future Connect in the cloud with the crowd whatever the cloud is if your cloud is money if you're a bank You're going to connect with your users through the mobile device and do something with them create a community Calculate loans transact pay for things the cloud and the crowd and mobile devices So now we're living in this world of you know plenty of destruction and this is actually an understatement and We're going to have him so many screens that we don't even know where to look I mean, it's it's a complete as Marshall McLoone said 1971 the global village is is a village of chaos noise and discussion And that's basically what we have. I mean, it's Fragmentation aggregation and this is the most important part Any brand with a media company or a music company or a newspaper? It's about curation It's about creating meaning For example a car company Audi BMW Mercedes people don't buy these cars because they're better Clearly not because they're all equally good. I mean you could say you like brands better But it's about what you think is a fit, right? It's the curation that actually matters This is why Audi is getting into apps. There will be people buying an Audi because you can customize your speedometer Sounds bizarre, but that is one of the criteria So that's what apps do they allow us to curate And remember that in Western Europe and in America and in developed countries We don't really have a money problem We have a time problem So for us would rather have a little spent on something that is relevant and Important and timely and useful. We spent something so our time was more important than money So therefore curation is a money maker That's what newspapers all about That's what television is all about if they're good I'm gonna skip ahead a little bit because otherwise we'll be here at midnight and You know as you can see I was quite optimistic on your level of exposure here, but Okay, talk about my favorite subject right lying Okay, you can basically say that in the past we spent a trillion dollars on either yelling at people through advertising Interrupting them or just plain out lying to them We all know that Domino's Pizza isn't good So Domino's Pizza found out last year when they were relaunching that everybody thought that pizza tastes like cardboard So they said well, we can't do this the first thing before we do marketing We're going to go and ask people to actually reinvent our pizza And I think it's called rethink pizza or something like that Right and this was extremely successful because before that in any marketing they had to stop lying about their pizza They had to actually fix it so if there are issues in your company whether your bank or or or a Movie company or production company if there are things wrong we have to fix those first before you make an app Because people will find out and we can find out anything now. I Mean this is if you go to search twitter.com Just put in the name of your company or a product somebody is having a conversation about you at this very moment So no matter what you think of wiki leaks, which I happen to think it's a little bit overdone in terms of the transparency But transparency becomes essential now. I Mean essential in the sense you can't hide anything. You can't lie because it's impossible I mean basically people everyone here today is already public in our profile so we can find out things about you Right. I mean what rains right now is a principle that Jeff Jarvis called publicity That's opposed to privacy this is from far as Europeans is extremely difficult to understand right because We are interested in privacy, but There's an issue here right all of us because we're in business and you're here doing this right you want to be found That's why many of you I would bet on LinkedIn or zing or Facebook or Twitter ring or whatever you're doing, right? People are connecting with you, and that's a benefit, but the result is you're a public person We're now by default public And if we want to be private we have to go and fix it We have to change our settings and we have to take stuff out I spent 20 hours two weeks ago wiping out stuff on my Facebook profile unfriending my wife my kids Just cleaning up, right Because the public effect means we have to take responsibility It's it's about responsibility not about regulation So this is a very very big learning process because all of a sudden we have the power not just to make fools of ourselves But as you can see here this clothing store Kenneth Cole was making a joke about the Egyptian Revolution Saying that really what was happening is that they were keeling up there to buy clothes This cost them several hundred million dollars in sales this one tweet Because people were saying like there's no way I'm gonna buy anything from these people BP when the old disaster happened BB said oh, you know, it's just too bad. You know, we'll find a way to fix this, right? Within three hours you had this website come up on Twitter BP global PR, but it wasn't BP Was somebody playing the role of BP a hundred seventy thousand people already on there tweeting as if there were BP, right? Imagine the damage that that cost So the bottom line is you can engage or you can be engaged. That's your choice. Look at the music companies, right? Seventy-one percent declined because they refuse to be engaged and now they are engaged anyway It's your choice if you started or somebody is going to force you But if somebody forces you you have to have a major lawsuit for two years to get rid of this Twitter feed All right, and it's everywhere on the web. So you better get engaged quickly I'm gonna get to a wrap up because I'm I'm getting kicked off the stage here. All right Okay, let me give you a quick wrap up here I will make a the slideshow available for downloading later so you can see all the cool stuff You missed you can also go to Gertube.com and watch about 200 hours of videos Anyway, so an important principle of what's happening in apps and on the web and general is this principle freemium feels like free and free This is not new. It's just more pronounced on the web All of the success stories that we have today on the web many of them start with free I call it feels like free because it's not actually free. It's part of something else that makes money So the trick is for example linked in most of you are using it for free or Skype But linked in let mate last year made 350 million dollars Because some of us choose to pay the $20 to get more So this idea basically linked in Amazon popular science Starting with some sort of idea of creating an upside. This is a very very important principle So now let me summarize real quick and then I'll get off the stage We're living in this world We're living in a networked society of broadband culture. That's mobile. That's social.  We need to co-invent new business models If you're a brand you have to talk to publishers if you're a publisher you have to talk to Labels I mean to ISPs and mobile operators, right? You have to connect and invent new models Google is the champion of course of this model to create new ecosystems and it's quite a hard job actually Also, it's important and when you do an app or a web page or whatever you do you create an experience Something really important. Holly Davidson for example has a website to where you can go and you can share stories about your rights It's called the writing club. You go there and you share experiences and that's really what makes it work The new money is in the cloud and the crowd And connecting the cloud and the crowd the next five years all of a stuff will move into the cloud And we're going to find interesting new ways to actually synchronize the two It's not about being noisy. It's about being irrelevant So if you're making noise stop making noise make relevance Otherwise don't bother Because we're beyond the stage of noise to where was fun just to tweet 500 times because you can Make it relevant make it meaningful Anything that's not connected To each other and to others will fail So an app that doesn't connect to the outside world most of them will fail Close guard walled gardens no matter how nice they are like apples walled garden is a great garden beautiful flowers Like they won't fail, but most of them will fail So don't build a walled garden And last but least this is the bottom line and disrupt or be disrupted That is the choice that we're having today Somebody is already looking at your business and saying wait a minute. We could do this and destroy them And chances are it'll be 1000 one of the 1000 of google's alpha projects It is going to have some impact On you in the future. So bottom line what I recommend that you do is you embrace this right user control at all times Like amazon says providing a really really top level experience, right? So that's the opportunity user control When you think about apps think about user control and empowerment. Thanks very much Here's my stuff. All my books are free on the web. Just google gert free pdf and you'll find it. Thanks very much