Good morning and welcome to the next lecture in our course on chemical engineering principles of C V D processes. So in this lecture we will continue to discuss some of the basics of V D processes and equipment and in particular focus on the thermodynamic slash kinetic aspects as well as the transport phenomena. This lecture will be more of an introduction to these mechanisms in C V D reactors and we will deal with them in more detail in future lectures. Now just to recap C V D is a process that is used to make many kinds of useful thin films on surfaces. So the kinds of films that you can make, you can make metals, ceramics, semiconductors and various composites. Now the type of metals that are frequently deposited using C V D or tungsten is one, copper is another one. Semiconductors of course silicon and germanium are the two that are most commonly deposited and they are used mostly in semiconductor microelectronic wafer fabrication, integrated circuits and so on. As far as composites go, the most common kind of composite that you can use, make with C V D is metal ceramic composites. And these are typically efficiently deposited using C V D because all you really have to do is adjust the precursors by introducing the right mix of vapor species into the C V D reactor. You can make either pure metal films or you can make pure ceramic films or composites of these or semiconductors or insulators or conductors whatever you want. So the process itself pretty much lends itself to the deposition of any kind of film that you want. C V D can also be used to make very fine fibers. So these could be optical fibers for various purposes. Even some of the carbon nanotubes are used or made using C V D processes. It is again a way to make nano sized materials as well. Essentially by using the C V D process as the initial step to make angstrom sized materials and then growing them to make nano sized particles. So we mentioned in one of the previous lectures that a C V D reactor can actually be turned into a nano particle synthesis reactor by providing conditions so that there is homogeneous nucleation of very fine particles. On the other hand, a C V D reactor can also be used to make nano sized materials on a substrate simply by allowing the C V D film to form initially but not as a continuous film but rather as clusters of particles which then coalesce to form larger particles. So you can also do nano particle synthesis on surfaces using C V D reactors. And so in a C V D process while most of the time we are trying to make continuous films on surfaces, sometimes we try to make powders as well. Powders are essentially isolated regions where you have an agglomeration of particulate material and these you can use for various purposes. So given the fact that C V D is a very flexible technology to make various types of surface products it is important to understand what type of equipment you need to make what type of C V D product. And also what precursors should you use again in order to achieve the C V D material that you are looking for. So in terms of precursors essentially the three most popular types of precursors are hydrides for example SIH4, silanus, silicon tetrahydride. The second one is halides, SiCl4, SiH2, Cl2 for examples of those. And the third one is metal organics. These are various organic compounds of various metals and semiconductors and so on. Now the reason that these are in particular preferred as precursors for C V D is that they combine two properties. One is they are very reactive. Obviously in a C V D reactor you want the species to be ready to react as soon as they enter the reactor. But at the same time they should be stable enough so that they do not decompose by the time they are fed into the reactor. So in the supply system itself you want them to remain in their basic form. When you are feeding reactants into the C V D reactor as I mentioned earlier you really do not want to mix the reactants. You want to keep them separate. But even so if the reactant is extremely reactive it can actually dissociate or start reacting with the plumbing material and so on. So you need precursors which are reactive enough but not too reactive. Those are the best kinds of reactants to use and these compounds kind of fulfill both criteria. So for example if you want to make a pure metal then you may want to go with a fairly simple hydride molecule or metal organic molecule as a precursor. On the other hand if you are trying to make compounds then you probably want a mixture of at least 2 species one of which contains one element in the compound and the other which contains the other element in the compound. And during the reaction they deposit a film which is then a compound of both elements. So for example you could have carbon which is embedded into a tungsten carbide material. So essentially carbonate, carbiding, nitriding are all done in this fashion. And even formation of oxides for example if you are trying to form titanium oxide as a film then you typically will introduce titanium as a reactant through let us say TiCl4 and the oxygen will then come in through an oxidizing species which could be again an organic compound which has oxygen present in it and during the reaction the Ti and O will find each other and deposit as a TiO2 film. So these are you know some ways you can look at CVD reactors you know based on what type of product you want to make. For example if you are trying to make a coating on a surface coatings have certain characteristic requirements. They must be extremely well adhered to the substrate, they must have very fine grain structure. Obviously they must be chemically stable. They must be able to withstand aggressive conditions of temperature, humidity and also they must be impervious to mechanisms like corrosion and erosion and so on. So they must satisfy these criteria and yet they must be very thin. So the challenge is to make a very thin film on a surface which can still satisfy all the functional requirements that the coating has to satisfy. And that is one reason why CVD is a very popular process for depositing coatings on surfaces because it is able to satisfy all these conditions simultaneously. Now another way to look at CVD reactors is in terms of the operating conditions. Is it a high temperature reactor or a room temperature reactor? Is it a high pressure reactor or a low pressure reactor? Now there are reasons again that dictate your decision as to whether you design it one way or the other. Now typically a high temperature reactor is chosen when you want a film that is more crystalline in its structure. Whereas temperature that is closer to room temperature can be employed when you do not care so much about the crystallinity of the structure but you care about for example the not changing the properties of the substrate itself. And so obviously the higher the temperature that you operate the substrate at the greater will be the rate of deposition. So as you lower the temperature closer to room temperature the rate of deposition will decrease as well. So again if you are trying to make thick films you want to operate in the high temperature regime whereas if you want to make a very thin film you are probably better off operating in the low temperature regime. Temperature also plays an interesting role and actually the combination of temperature and pressure is very interesting in order to achieve certain characteristics in a reactor. Now in terms of the temperature of the reactor there are really again two modes in which a reactor can be operated. One is known as a hot wall reactor and the other is known as a cold wall reactor. Now the difference between these two is you know you have the substrate which is being provided with an external energy source on which you are depositing the film and you have the reactor and the gases flowing through the reactor. Now if the substrate temperature is some let us say T s and let us say that the walls of this reactor are at some temperature T w. In the case of a hot wall reactor T w is approximately equal to T s and in the case of a cold wall reactor T w is much smaller than T s. Now when you look at these two cases what are the advantages and disadvantages that you can think of? When the wall temperature is approximately equal to the substrate temperature essentially what that means is you are not heating the substrate too much because you expect that the reactor itself will be kept fairly close to room temperature. So when we say that the difference in temperatures is small what we are talking about is that the substrate is not being heated to a very high temperature. Now what is the biggest benefit to doing it this way? Well first thing there is an energy conservation right the hotter you have to heat the more energy you have to supply. So if you can make a process run at a lower temperature you should always be happy. What is the other advantage that you can think of? Well it turns out that in a CVD reactor one of the things you have to watch out for is the flow dynamics. How is the material being convected into the reactor and how is it being allowed to diffuse to the substrate in order for film condensation to happen? When you have a case where TS is much greater than TW in other words a hot wall case what happens from a flow dynamics view point what do you expect will happen? Do you think that will have an influence on how flow happens? So there will be a big density gradient right the gas that is closest to the substrate will be much lighter than the gas that is far away. So essentially what would happen when TW is much smaller than TS you will start getting these recirculation loops in the system and as I was mentioning in the last class that is something you do not want to have. You want flow in a CVD reactor to be unidirectional and laminar as far as possible. You do not want these convection cells or recirculation zones to be set up within the reactor because that can lead to unpredictable deposition behaviour. You may get very thick deposits in certain locations and virtually no deposit in other locations. So clearly you cannot avoid it it is a natural convection right so anytime there is a temperature gradient you are going to set up a natural convection flow. But what is the, so well that is the main disadvantage of a cold wall reactor where the substrate is being maintained at a much higher temperature. But what is the advantage of a cold wall reactor? Why would you want to do that? The main reason you want a cold wall reactor is so that you make sure that the nucleation only happens in a heterogeneous fashion because only the substrate is at a high enough temperature to actually promote deposition to happen and you essentially preclude homogeneous nucleation from happening. Because in this configuration all the rest of the reactor is at a much lower temperature. So thermodynamically and kinetically the formation of condensed faces is not favoured. In a cold wall reactor you can pretty much rest assured that you do not have to worry about formation of the condensed face in the bulk gas and then the transport of these particles to the substrate which can obviously degrade the quality of the film. But in the case of the hot wall reactor although you are avoiding this natural convection flow due to a steep temperature gradient you now have to deal with the possibility that you could have lot of nucleation of the condensed face in the gas itself. So you may get a lot of loss of material which may be actually depositing on the walls of the chamber and even worse occasionally the material that is depositing on the walls of the reaction chamber will flake off and drop on the substrate. So instead of getting a nice smooth film you will have very powdery and flaky deposit on the substrate. So there are clearly pros and cons to both configurations. So you have to have a reasonably good idea in your mind as to which way you want to go. Now how does pressure play into this? When does low pressure help and when does high pressure help? Well again pros and cons. When you are as I mentioned the other day when I say high pressure in a CVD context we are really talking about atmospheric pressure, right. Now under atmospheric pressure conditions again chemical reactions will run much faster. They are more likely to reach equilibrium because both pressure and temperature are typically accelerators for chemical reactions. So you can expect that when you have a pressurized chamber or at least atmospheric pressure chamber the probability that 2 molecules will find each other and react is much higher. The reason is of course that at higher pressures the molecules are squeezed closer together so they are more likely to react. In other words the mean free path is going to be much smaller than the dimensions of the chamber. So collisions between molecules are very likely. At lower pressures what can happen is the mean free path can expand sufficiently that it actually becomes comparable with the dimensions of the chamber itself which means that it is possible that 2 molecules may never find each other. So the lower the pressure that you operate at the less intense the reaction becomes. What is the positive part of operating at low pressure then? Well for one thing you can certainly affect the structure of the film. For example if you are trying to make an amorphous film or a polycrystalline film you are better off using low pressures because you do not really want a very structured film to form. And also if you are only looking for low deposition rates and very very thin films low pressure is better because at high pressure the deposition rates become quite large. On the other hand although high pressure promotes chemical reactions it does slow down the diffusion process right whereas at low pressures even though the chemical reaction is slowed down diffusional processes speed up. So you really have to analyze your particular reactor to understand what is the rate limiting mechanism and make sure that you design the reactor so that you remove the bottleneck wherever it is. For example if your CVD system is transport constrained then you probably want to operate at low pressures so that you speed up the diffusion process. On the other hand if your CVD process is kinetically constrained then you want to operate at high pressure so that you can make the kinetics run faster. The other effect that pressure has is actually in affecting the flow itself within the chamber. It turns out that these convection cells or recirculation loops that I talked about are significantly reduced when you lower the pressure that effect is much greater as pressure increases. So if you want to run a reactor that is a cold wall reactor but you do not want to deal with the problem of recirculation then you are better off using lower pressures because they have the effect of essentially collapsing these convection cells and making the flow very uniform. So lot of complex interplay that you need to think about when you are designing a CVD reactor. Now in terms of chemical analysis one of the first assumptions we make when we talk about CVD reactors is that the flow is laminar as I said and also the velocity of flow is low enough that the molecules have plenty of time to find each other and react. So what that means is that by the time the reactants enter the reactor and to the time they exit the reactor there is sufficient residence time of the reacting species inside the reactor for them to reach chemical equilibrium. So you can essentially assume that all chemical reactions reach equilibrium which means that for characterizing any reaction between species to form a product you can assume equilibrium rate constants and do your calculations based on that. So that is one limiting case obviously of looking at the chemical reactions inside a CVD reactor but as we were just discussing it is a valid approach when you know that conditions inside the reactor are approaching equilibrium conditions. What that requires a flow rate must be slow enough that there is plenty of time for equilibration to happen in the reactor and b the pressure in the reactor must be high enough that the molecules again get pushed against each other and react. So under high pressure low flow conditions the chemical equilibrium assumption is quite valid. Conversely of course as the flow rate increases and or the pressure decreases you have to start questioning the assumption of chemical equilibrium and you have to start introducing chemical kinetic factors. So if I were to do an analysis of chemical reactions in a CVD reactor the two extreme cases that I can look at are one where equilibrium prevails and the other where you have a kinetic constraint. So what that means is if I look at a very simple reaction inside this CVD reactor where let us say Si H4 gas goes to Si H2 gas plus 2H which is a typical gas phase reaction that would happen in a pyrolysis CVD reactor where Si H4 is getting broken down into Si plus 2H2. So this is only one process step in the overall reaction which is Si H4 gas going to Si solid plus H2 gas which is the pyrolysis reaction that I mentioned in the first or second lecture. But to go to the step obviously it is not going to go in one step right there is going to be a lot many many gas phase reactions that happen and finally the depositing species are going to get transported to the surface and then the film formation is actually going to happen. So if I just look at one step here you know the Si H4 gas going to Si H2 plus 2H you can certainly write this equation in terms of you know this is let us say a reversible reaction. So you can write you know some Kp so function of temperature equals P Si H2 times P H square over P Si H4 where this Kp you can write it as some Kp0 exponential minus delta G by Kt. So you can actually calculate the rate constant from the thermodynamic properties of the reacting species. So if Kp is known at the temperature that the reactor is running at then you can actually solve for the reacting species by doing a mass balance in the reactor. But this is of course assuming that chemical equilibrium is prevailing but the other extreme of this as I mentioned earlier is kinetically limited. So let us say that this is the forward reaction and this is the reverse reaction then in the case where reaction is kinetically limited you have to write it as D by Dt of concentration of Si H4 equals K minus Kf times concentration of Si H2 concentration of hydrogen plus Kr times concentration of so you have to write it as a rate equation right and you have to look at how the concentration changes for a given combination of Kf and Kr. Now this is just looking at one reaction but then in the actual system this is not going to be the only reaction right. For example this Si H4 may react with the Si H2 to form Si 2 H6 so that could be the next step that happens in the gas phase. And the next reaction could be that this Si 2 H6 breaks up into Si 2 H2 plus 2 H2. So I mean there could be literally dozens or even hundreds of these chemical reactions that are constantly going on. Even in the equilibrium case even if you can assume that equilibrium exists how do you handle all that? You know there is going to be simultaneously a hundred reactions that are going on and rate constants that are involved and it gets even more complex in the kinetically limited case to do this evaluation because you have to solve these equations simultaneously with your momentum transport, momentum conservation and energy conservation equation so that you know what is the local prevailing velocity, the local temperature and so on in order to be able to do these calculations. And so dealing with the gas phase reaction part of it even in the case where you can assume chemical equilibrium is challenging. So instead of specifying certain reactions and assuming that reactions take place along reaction paths there is another approach that can be used to calculate equilibrium compositions. Anybody aware of the alternative method of calculating equilibrium compositions without having to specify reactions? What is the characteristic of equilibrium state from a thermodynamic view point? Free energy is minimized, right? So in essence if you have an algorithm by which you can look at various combinations of products and calculate the free energy corresponding to each combination and then mathematically analyze it to see which particular combination of product species will give you the minimum in free energy that should give you the equilibrium composition, right? And in fact that is the approach that is used to calculate equilibrium compositions in CVD systems. It is based on free energy minimization. It is a very elegant method in the sense that you do not have to specify any reaction pathways. You do not have to say that you know these are the 20 reactions that are going on because you do not know you are only guessing whereas free energy minimization has a huge advantage that you do not need to know anything about the reactions that transform the reactants into the products. All you need to know is what are the reactants and you need to know all possible products that you do need which means that you need to have a very extensive thermodynamic database that contains the necessary properties of all possible product species. But as long as you have that it is a fairly simple mathematical exercise to do this. We will cover this in more detail in one of the future lectures because it is a very key thing to especially to modeling CVD reactors and the formation of products in CVD reactors. Now all that we have discussed so far are reactions happening in the gas phase and even though they are quite complicated they are actually quite simple when you compare them to the reactions that are going to be taking place on the surface because even less is known about heterogeneous chemical reactions when you have such a multiplicity of gas phase species that are coming in contact with a energized substrate. For example the silicon that is actually depositing as a film on the surface may be getting delivered to the surface in the form of many different species. It could be coming in as SiH4, SiH2, Si2, H4 whatever. The thing that what differentiates these species is what is known as the sticking coefficient. What is the probability that a silane molecule that approaches a substrate will actually stick to the substrate rather than rebounding compared to let us say an SiH2 molecule that is approaching the same surface. For example it turns out that the sticking coefficient for SiH2, Sililene is close to 1. As soon as a Sililene molecule hits a surface it sticks whereas for silane the sticking coefficient is much smaller it is about 10 to the power minus 6. Why do you think that is? What do you think determines the sticking probability of a molecule on a surface? A simple way to think about it is an inert molecule will have a much lower sticking probability than a reactive molecule. It just so happens that Silane SiH4 compared to Sililene SiH2 is a much more stable molecule. So it does not immediately react whereas SiH2 is just ready to react as soon as it encounters a surface. So what that means is that even though the concentration of the SiH2 species may be much lower in the gas phase compared to the concentration of the SiH4 species the arrival rate or the deposition rate is actually the product of the flux of the species multiplied by the sticking coefficient or the accommodation coefficient. So when you look at it that way both Sililene and Silane contribute equal amounts of silicon to the surface because Silane has a much higher concentration but lower sticking coefficient whereas Sililene has a much lower concentration but has a higher sticking coefficient. So it is really the product between the two that you have to keep in mind when you are trying to figure out which of the gas phase species is contributing the most to deposition occurring on the surface. But that is only the second step. You know the first step is the formation of the gas phase molecules. The second phase is actually delivering the molecule to the surface. The third step is the molecule that has been delivered to the surface must get adsorbed on the surface. So for example the adsorption step would imply that if Si is getting delivered in the form of Si H2 gas to the surface it must first become Si H2 adsorbed. The Sililene molecule that gets delivered to the surface must first become attached to the surface through an adsorption process and here is where the sticking coefficient becomes very important. In the case of Sililene you can assume that virtually every molecule of Si H2 gas that comes to the surface gets converted to Si H2 adsorbed. Now but that is not a final process right because now you have to get rid of the H2. So there is also a desorption step involved. Now in order for desorption to happen first this Si H2 molecule that has become adsorbed on the surface has to migrate on the surface until it finds a vacancy in which the Si can be accommodated. So it has to be able to move around the surface freely. So surface mobility becomes a critical issue. It is the diffusion of the adsorbed vapor on the surface that is a very critical step in ensuring A the uniformity of the film and B the formation of the film. And typically surface diffusivity is affected to a great extent by temperature unlike gas phase diffusivity. If you remember Fick diffusion coefficient and its dependence on temperature it is only about T to the power 1.5 or 1.6. So it is not terribly temperature dependent. However surface mobility has essentially an exponential dependence on temperature. So an increase in the temperature of the substrate has a tremendous influence on the ability of adsorbed molecules to move around on the surface. Which is why again high temperature operation is advantageous. It not only results in a high rate of deposition but it also results in a much more uniform film because the molecules are able to transport themselves around the surface much more easily. So the next step from Si H2 adsorbed is for silicon to become a solid phase and release the H2 as a desorbed vapor. So that is the next step and desorption also is a process that is enhanced by temperature. So temperature not only makes it easier for the Si H2 molecule to move around and find a vacancy and therefore lose the silicon but it also makes it easier to desorb the hydrogen and get it out of the system. So those are all reasons why you want to keep the substrate temperature as high as possible. So this makes for a much thicker film and a much more uniform film. So if you are trying to minimize your cycle time and improve particularly the uniformity of your film then you are much better off using a cold wall setup compared to a hot wall setup. So this is basically what is going on right. From a thermodynamic or chemical kinetic view point the critical steps are A the formation of the vapor phase precursors, B is the transport of the vapor phase precursors containing the depositing elements to the surface. Step 3 is adsorption of the film components onto the surface, D is mobility of the adsorbed molecules in order to find a vacancy on the surface and step E is desorption of the excess chemical in order to deposit the pure element or metal on the surface. So it is essentially a five step process just from a purely thermodynamic view point. Now what you have to do is obviously combine this with the transport considerations in order to complete the description. Suppose you are running a CVD process and you want to know whether the process is transport limited or kinetically limited how would you do that? What is the simple test you could do? Any idea? No, no give me something specific what conditions, what experiments, what is the critical parameter you try to alter and what you do measure, outlet concentration of what? Much more direct test would be to vary the temperature and look at the rate of deposition of the film, much more functionally relevant also because ultimately what you care about. So suppose you take suppose you do that experiment and you plot 1 over temperature versus logarithm of the deposition rate in a CVD reactor in which a higher temperature is more favourable to the formation of a deposit, how do you think this curve will look? Any idea? Will it look like this, will it look like this, like this, like this, let us say this is 1, 2, 3, 4 how many vote for 1, 2, 3, 3 is what, this straight line, 4, 1 and the others have absolutely no opinion or you do not think it is going to look like any of these. The correct answer is actually 4, this is how most CVD deposition rate curves look like. Now what does that mean? So that is essentially a region where the deposition rate is virtually insensitive to temperature, so what does that mean? What is the limiting factor? It is incentive to temperature and we have said before that chemical reactions are much more sensitively affected by temperature compared to transport reactions, I mean transport phenomena. So what this means is that in this regime where the deposition rate is virtually constant or slowly varying with respect to temperature, we call that the transport limited regime and of course by extension then the region where you see a very sensitive dependence of the rate of deposition to surface temperature, you would call this a kinetically controlled regime. Another way to state it is this is the region of very high temperature right, so as you increase the substrate temperature eventually it gets to be so high that there is no kinetic limitation, the reaction will proceed as long as the reactants are delivered to the reacting surface. Whereas in this limit the temperatures are low enough that even small variations in temperature can have very significant influences on the rate of deposition. And by the way the point where this rate of deposition reaches 0 is known as what any idea? Something we encounter all the time in daily life, what do you call the point at which either a pre-existing deposit does not deposit anymore or the point at which a deposit first starts appearing on a surface, dew point because you are all familiar with dew point in the case of water condensing and so on. But one thing that is unique about dew points in CVD systems is that they are not unique. In other words depending on whether you approach the dew point in this direction or in this direction the dew point may be different. So we will talk about that again in more detail because that is a very, very crucial thing to understand in CVD reactors. And in fact the behaviour of the film between the two dew points, it is like a hysteresis effect very simply but when the temperature is between these two dew points the film has some very, very interesting characteristics that can be exploited for certain applications. So what does it mean? You know what this means is if you are in this high temperature regime where you are transport constrained, the design of the reactor must pay a lot of attention to the flow dynamics because what this means is you are transport limited that means you have to maximise and optimise your transport mechanisms. So you have to ensure that the reactants are being fed in at the right rates that all the flow patterns inside the reactor are being maintained absolutely stable. You cannot allow for even slight variations in the flow dynamics of the system and it also means essentially that you can only process one wafer at a time because when you have a cassette of wafers it is going to be very difficult to control flow dynamics around each one of them. So typically this process is used for what is known as single wafer processing where you deposit the film one wafer at a time. Again the primary reason for this is it is virtually impossible to control flow very tightly around an entire basket or cassette of carriers. On the other hand in this regime what this means is that your flow controls do not have to be very tight except as far as they affect the temperature distribution. But what you need to control very very carefully here is your temperature distribution. You have to make sure that the temperature profiles are maintained absolutely constant. You have to have the best possible control mechanisms for temperature just as you would want to have the best possible control mechanisms for flow in this condition right. So from a process control strategy viewpoint where you focus is very very different in those two cases. So a lot of very interesting things that you can actually extract from this work from this figure one of the things again is this is essentially suitable for bulk C V D where you try to process many many wafers at one time. So if you are into volume production where you have to make a lot of product then you are probably better off trying to operate in this regime whereas if the throughput is not your primary requirement but rather the control and the purity and the uniformity of the film then you are better off working in this regime. So if you look at this figure and we will keep coming back to this there are a lot of very interesting inferences you can draw regarding how a C V D process functions in these two limits and what are the design considerations for C V D reactors operating in these two limits. This is a universal figure it does not matter which C V D process you look at or which C V D reactor in what configuration you will always come up with this although I should mention that there is one case where you will have a reverse behavior and that is in the very rare case where a C V D film is more favorable at low temperature and becomes unstable at a higher temperature obviously in that case everything will now kind of turn around and in fact some of the naturally occurring C V D films that we will talk about later like you know the bulb tungsten condensation on the bulb wall or even this hot corrosion due to molten alkali's those are actually deposits that are more stable at lower temperatures compared to higher temperatures. So everything will now become the mirror image. One of the things you might also want to think about is in this system suppose you double the flow rate of the reactants or effectively double the concentration of the reactants how is this figure going to change how is this curve going to shift. So let us say that you now increase the reactant concentration by 2x will this whole thing shift like this or like this or do not change 1, 2, 3 what do you choose when you double the concentration of the reactants you do not change the dew point right. So eventually it will converge like this because the concentration only makes a difference in the transport limited regime. Once you get to the thermodynamically constrained regime it has less of an influence so eventually the 2 figures will converge and you will essentially come to the same dew point. Anyway as I said lot of interesting things to think about so in the next class we will this class we primarily dealt with the thermodynamic aspects on the next class we will spend some time talking about transport aspects in a C V D reactor. Any questions okay see you in the next class.


What's up guys? So we all know that the iPhone 12 Pro comes with nothing but the phone and the USB-C to lightning port cable and that's all for £999. But if you're maybe thinking about getting the Pro Max for £1,099 then this video is a recommendation of how I think you should better spend your money. So if you do go for the iPhone 12 Pro then this is what you can get for £1,099 so let's take a look. So the iPhone 12 Pro Pacific Blue 128 gigabytes 999 pounds. Anker USB-C charging plug for £21. A U-Green 2 meter USB-C to lightning port cable for £16 just to extend the cable length for various different purposes. A lightning port headphone adapter for wired headphones or adding maybe external microphones to your iPhone. The official wireless MagSafe charger for £39. A slim phone case by a company called Casecoo which is transparent clear and ultra thin and this is for £15. All right guys so that is a perfect combination of accessories to have for £10.99. If you do want to upgrade to the Pro Max and get the slightly better camera then that's up to you guys. This is just my recommendation and I think this is what you should get in the box for that price. So a whole bunch of things I'm going to be using this as my main phone and I'm actually switching from Android after so many years. I'm going to be covering a video of me during that switch to see some of the problems I came across some of the things that were easy to do so keep an eye out for that. Lastly just want to give a big shout out to Casecoo. They sponsored this video and they do a whole host of top cases for all the different flagship smartphones so I've been sent a whole bunch of iPhone 12 cases by these guys for the mini for the 12 for the pro for the Pro Max and I really like the design of theirs. They've got a very nice clean slim ultra slim transparent case which I think will just go good so you can still showcase the color of your phone. They also do ones which are matte colored so completely plastic based nice matte finishes and then also military grade ultra durable ones. So here's an example this is an ultra military grade durable case so you can pretty much throw your phone around although I don't recommend it but it wouldn't damage it whatsoever it's very rock solid. This is a nice matte black iPhone 12 case that they've sent me and you can get this in Pacific blue as well to match the different colors of the phone that come out. Now the clear cases are also compatible with the MagSafe charger so I've got the phone here it's not charging at the moment I've just plugged this in here we go it's charging it's magnetic it holds quite well and then you can just place this down have it charged on there and you're ready to go so very convenient I'm going to charge up my new phone keep an eye out I've got a camera review coming for the 12 pro showcase a host of images in different lighting conditions I know you're going to really like that one plus a whole host of really cool iPhone 12 videos I know you're going to like so make sure you hit that subscribe button all the links down below for all of these things and I will catch you guys next time take care


panel is on energy security in Asia. I think we all know that the energy narrative picture in Asia has changed very dramatically over the last decade, at least in part because of the rapid economic growth. So we have four great panelists to join us here today and who will give us brief overviews of the situation from their perspective and then we will have a discussion involving the audience. So our first speaker is Jonathan Elkind who is the Acting Assistant Secretary for International Affairs at the U.S. Department of Energy. Previously Jonathan served as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Office of Policy and International Affairs and earlier before that he worked at the Brookings Institution on energy security and foreign policy issues. Jonathan the floor is yours. Thank you very much. Thank you very much, Murray. Ladies and gentlemen it's really a pleasure to be here at CSIS today. I see that one of the dilemmas of having a beautiful new building is that the the world outside we you get reminders that the world outside is out there and a distraction it certainly is. It is in in my view very fitting that we have this discussion about energy security in the Asian frame at this time and also in this place because between the developments in energy security the challenges and opportunities that one sees emerging in Asia and those that one sees emerging in the United States over the last several years one could say that the two are the most dynamic pieces of the global energy scene at present. The United States and our companies have worked together with the countries and companies of Asia on energy issues for quite a long time. Nonetheless I think it is worth taking a step back and looking at kind of the current state of play in terms of context that provides the backdrop to our discussion on this panel. In 1977 US crude oil imports amounted to 46% of US consumption at roses high is nearly 70% a few years ago but dramatically then in the period of the this new young century we've seen an important change. In 2013 domestic crude oil production in the United States amounted to nearly 10 million barrels a day on and it looks like now for the foreseeable future the imports of crude oil into the United States will be on a downward trend not an upward trend that was true so very recently. In Asia meanwhile one sees dramatic growth in crude oil consumption and in other energy consumption. According to ADB the Asian Development Bank net oil imports in the Asia Pacific region will rise to more than 25 million barrels a day by 2035 and that's pretty close to the current crude oil output of the Middle East. Within that the International Energy Agency foresees that oil dependency in Southeast Asia will be probably on the order of 75% by that same time period of 2035. These statistics I think are useful as framing on the oil side because they speak to the importance of investment and trade across boundaries and between different regions of the global energy world. One can see similar interesting changes happening in total demand if you look at some of the data historically back to the 1970s. In 1977 the United States accounted for 31% of global oil consumption. Asia was roughly 17% of that same period and today we find that those orders of magnitude have roughly reversed with the United States consuming around 20% of global production Asia around 33%. So I won't go further into this context but I will just underscore that whether one looks at coal with the dramatic rise of coal combustion in China in other Asian countries, whether one looks at oil, whether one looks at natural gas with increasing global trade of liquefied natural gas, one sees very dynamic growth all across Asia and that is an important backdrop to our topic today. If I look from the U.S. perspective at how we are engaging with our partners in Asia I would call out several different features. One is that the United States is committed to working with our partners, our friends, our allies from around the globe to enhance energy security for all involved. In May of this year the G7 energy ministers met in Rome for the purpose of a renewed focus on energy security as an issue that again had kind of had receded from view for a period of time and then reemerged into the forefront of our focus. A second piece of the U.S. energy policy that I would emphasize at the outset is a focus on accelerating a transition to a low carbon economy. In June of last year President Obama rolled out his Climate Action Plan which calls for important steps that will significantly alter over a long horizon the profile of U.S. energy consumption and use. In addition the President's Climate Action Plan called for steps to make our energy systems and our economy more broadly significantly more resilient to a changing climate because this is the reality that we already are experiencing. And third we are engaging with international partners on this agenda as well. Let me give just a couple of examples before I close. One in the context of APEC the United States has worked very closely with partners from all around the Asia Pacific region focusing on energy development, energy security and energy sustainability. For example the energy working group under APEC is pursuing now goals of reducing energy intensity by 45 percent across all of the economies of APEC by 2035 based on 2005 levels doubling the share of renewable energy in the APEC economies energy mix by 2030 and collaborating on the phase out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. In the International Energy Agency which counts as among its members several important Asian partners the membership of the IEA has been seeking to increase our engagement with other nonmember countries across Asia. One particular example that I would give in this context are the conversations about a new form of a nonmember affiliation between IEA and some key partners including China and India. This is the idea still under development of an association relationship between those nonmembers and IEA. This is motivated by our general sense again that the dynamism in the Asian energy context is one that calls for significantly increased engagements. We are also working bilaterally with important partners all across Asia. I will not in view of time go into details here. I will simply highlight three well let's call it four in view of Prime Minister Modi's visit this week. Four key Asian relationships that matter deeply to the United States in the energy arena. One is with India where earlier this week there was a series of announcements about new initiatives in the energy and climate space. A second is with China. Indeed, when the APEC summit occurs in about six weeks time it is reasonable to expect that again energy will be an important part of that conversation and certainly in the bilateral meeting that President Obama will have with President Xi Jinping we expect the same. Japan has been for years a very very important partner to the United States all across the waterfront in terms of different technology spaces, in terms of policy collaborations, energy efficiency, the gamut from one to the other. And last but not least our collaborations with Republic of Korea are I would say also an important piece of our bilateral work. So I will stop here and hope that I've been able to provide at least a point of departure from the U.S. perspective. The core point that I would emphasize is the following. In a time when one sees a great deal of dynamism in the energy context of the United States we nonetheless are focused very very closely on the fact that the dynamism in the Asian energy economies is the other prevailing reality. We applaud this. We want to work closely with Asian partners. I'd be happy to take any questions that you all may have after the speakers, the other speakers have finished. Thank you very much. Thanks Jonathan for that very helpful overview. Our second speaker is Mr. Tanayuki Sumita. Mr. Sumita is the Director General of Natural Resources and the Fuel Department in the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy in Japan's Ministry of Economy and Trade. Previous to this job he served with Mitty in Brussels where he worked to improve cooperation between the EU and Japan. And Sumita-san is a graduate of Georgetown University. Please, Sumita-san. Thanks Marie. It is my pleasure to be here in front of you to explain our view on the energy security issues in Asia. And also I'm very happy to come back here after the 22 years after the graduating of the Georgetown University Foreign Service. And as you well know that the energy security issue is one of the very important issue in energy policy in any country. The main period of the energy policy is so equal three years. Energy security, economic growth and environment. And in the case of Asia, the Asian countries have a very good mixture of the supplying and consumption. I mean some of the Asian countries are the supplying countries of energy and some are the very big consumer of energy. But at the same time we have faced several challenges, especially recently. The first one is as Mr. Elkain mentioned the increase in the oil import in the future. And secondly we are facing, still we are already facing that the very high price of gas, especially LNG. This means that we have some trouble, some difficulty in utilizing natural gas. And third one is how we can make those two challenges compatible. So the energy, environmental issues and economic growth, especially in the case of coal, how to utilize the coal. And at the current situation the biggest challenge is how to respond to the energy demand. From the viewpoint of the primary energy supply, we have a very good mixture of oil, gas and coal and so on. But as to the secondary energy, we clearly see that the very rapid increase of demand on electricity. Some prediction says that during this coming two decades the demand of electricity will increase by 100%. But at the same time we need to secure the environment or conserve the environment. That's why we need to encourage those Asian countries to utilize non-coal or some kind of very less coal options like nuclear or renewable energies. This is the very common idea maybe which are totally shared with the US government to encourage the local options to Asian countries. But at the same time, if we see the energy security issues or economic growth, the still for many Asian countries coal has some advantage from those point of view. That's why according to the IEA's prospect, at this moment the portion of the coal power plant is 70%, 70% of total electricity supply and it will still more than half in the year 2013. In other words, the total electricity demand on coal power plant will increase by 80% during this coming 20 years. To reduce the dependency on coal is one of the very common interests for US and Japan in Asian countries. But as I mentioned, the initial approach is to encourage them to utilize nuclear gas or renewable energy, those kind of low carbon options. But at the same time they are facing some concern on financial or security and so on. Especially in the case of gas, we are facing very high price of natural gas. That's why the gas is not a very good option for East Asian countries and also nuclear and renewable will cost a lot. That's why ideally speaking to reduce drastically the dependency on coal is the best option for US and Japan. But maybe more pragmatically to reduce the CO2 emission from the coal power plant is the second best option and the very big challenge for us. And to reduce the CO2 reduction from the coal power plant is mainly realized by the improvement of efficiency of electricity generation. And in the current situation, the most advanced technology is the ultra super critical, which has more than 45% energy efficiency. And it is almost 20% better than the very traditional coal power plants. It means that we can reduce the CO2 emission by 20% by introducing a very high efficient coal power plants. But at the same time, such kind of high tech, high efficient coal power plants cost a lot. In the case of ultra super critical coal power plants, it takes almost 1.4 billion US data to introduce those kind of USC ultra super critical. It is almost 40% more expensive compared to the very conventional subcritical. And also if we compare the total cost, for example, by 40 years time, the total cost is almost the same in the case of subcritical and ultra super critical. That's why this big initial cost should be financed by some ways. That's why we need to encourage the Asian countries to introduce as high as possible technology concerning coal power plants. And by doing so, we can avoid some introduction or deployment of low efficient coal power plants, which may be supported by undisciplined finance taken by non-OECD countries. If we can very effectively encourage them to introduce the high coal power plants, then the total CO2 emission will be reduced by 20% at most. And in this situation, the very important function for Japan is falling. First of all, we have very high efficient coal power plants in operation, especially the ultra super critical, with very big strengths of operational technique and also the maintenance technique, which enables to maintain the high efficiency rate for a long time. It is a very important point. And also we are now investing a lot to the next generation technology like IGCC or IGSC. In addition to that, we have made a lot of effort in cooperation with the U.S. governments or U.S. partners in the area of carbon capture storage or carbon capture utilization. To share these recognition is very important and already in the end of August or in the end of last month, Japan asset meeting, Japan asset minister's meeting or East Asian Energy Minister meeting issued some joint statement related to the introduction of green coal technology. So in some, we see that in the future, in the Asian area, the demand on energy will increase. But we need to have a very strong concern on the environmental issues. That's why we need to have some solution to make both challenges compatible by introducing several measures, including the encouragement of deployment of carbon coal technology. Thank you very much. Thank you very much, Sumita-san. That was very helpful. Our third speaker is Dr. Han Pumin, who is an energy economist at IRIA. They have a very long name. It's even longer than CSIS, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN in East Asia, and it's based in Jakarta. Dr. Pumin, or Dr. Han rather, does work here on energy security, energy efficiency, coal technology, power infrastructure connections, et cetera. Dr. Han is a graduate of the Economic Development and Policies from Kobe University in Japan. Dr. Han, please. Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, a very good morning indeed. I'm so delighted to be here, having the opportunity to speak to you about Asia in terms of energy security. I would like to start off by saying several challenges so that we'll give you a clear picture of why I derived conclusions in terms of energy security in that way. Perhaps the way Asia thinking and the US, North America, and Europe perhaps have slightly different perspectives, that's why I want to start off by challenges what we are facing so that the conclusion will be understood by many participants here. As you see, that Asia is growing in terms of economic growth, that exciting, that given decade of a robot economic growth, but that growth also encompassed with many challenges, that including the rising of energy demand. Rising of energy demand is not a good new, but we have to curb those energy demand by various measures. And also with the growing population, just ASEAN and East Asia alone have 3.3 billion population. ASEAN has 600 million population. And imagine how many populations are denied in terms of energy access, particularly for electricity. So in terms of energy demand in the region, actually by today, by now, until 2035, for ASEAN and East Asia as a whole, that energy demand will grow by double from 400 million tons of oil equivalent up to 8,000, 8,500 million tons of oil equivalent. And in terms of energy perspective, it's an enormous issue that how we secure reliable energy in terms of affordable price to keep up those growth by saying that how many more populations we provide access to more than commercial energies. So to say that I think this issue we are facing is one is providing energy access, keep energy securities, and also the issue to keep economic growth. So another point is we are at the crossroad that we also strive the balance of environmental issue. So how actually as Asia perspective and position in terms of energy security? I think it depends on how you look at energy security. I'm familiar with several phase here. They are experts on energy securities, but it depends on how you look at it. And in the energy mix in Asia, particularly ASEAN in East Asia, you see that among energy mix you have fuel, you have coal, you have renewable and others, but coal has a very significant and important role in striving economic growth in ASEAN and East Asia. To say that U.S. and North America have really enjoying coal in the past six decades to keep U.S. by now until you have a cell gas that could push another scenario of issue. But saying ASEAN now, we are not really enjoying the cell gas like the North America has enjoyed and the price are four or five times, and we do not have infrastructure and connectivity like in North America in terms of pipeline connectivity. More energy are met by import, and ours production actually very low, but will be met mostly by 31 percent of import for energy. But if you look at energy mix in terms of coal, coal have a greater share in energy mix, more than 50 percent and continue to be almost 50 percent in energy mix by 2035. So with energy security perspective, that one need to have a reliable delivery and affordable price. So coal in terms of supply stability for ASEAN is very good. So by donation and Australia having very reliable price and supply in the region. So in that regard coal remain very strategic important for energy security for ASEAN and East Asia. I think when we are coming to stride the balance between how we are concerning the way the coal has been burning currently, and the practice actually ASEAN and East Asia, but for emerging economy and poor countries, they are burning coal vastly because of the current power plant. Coal power plant have very low efficiency in terms of thermal plant. But there are a variety of options there, including these clean coal technologies. By introducing clean coal technologies, you can burn coal more efficiently and at the same time saving fuel and minimize operation and maintenance cost. But the key issue is the upfront cost investment are higher compared to low efficient coal power plant. And currently there is a variety of technology there. Currently that Japan having the high efficiency coal power plant and those China is emerging, but I think there is some struggle in terms of how reliable of those power plant. So in that regard it's ASEAN actually also expressed interest in using high efficient coal power plant. But we are not able to afford that because upfront cost. So with that regards, my institute, where I come from, we conduct this comparison of the economic return in terms of different type of clean coal technologies. And we found that by using ultra-supercritical power plant, it really provides a very good return in terms of economic and environmental benefit just within 25 time frame period and in terms of providing electricity cost in cheaper in terms of labor cost of electricity. So with that we really provide strong recommendation to East Asia energy making that ASEAN should actually afford this kind of high efficient technology coal power plant which is the current technology are mature, are commercialized, but why are ASEAN not able to access to those technologies because upfront cost. With that context I would say that this deployment of clean coal technologies are urgent to support that if the ASEAN cannot afford that they can afford lower cheaper technologies that could be locked in so many years before it can change any scenario. So there must be international framework in that regard to support ASEAN to afford clean coal technology but particularly would be a public financing because those upfront costs will be high. Any company I think is difficult to access loan or whatever created by itself without support, public financial support on clean coal technologies. And with that regard I think it's a very crucial role support that in the absence of the public financing on clean coal technology imagine that non-OECD member country particularly emerging Chinese company and other they are ready to invest in a lower cost and also less efficient. So more ASEAN likely to afford those from Chinese technology why current efficient technology are available and we are not able to afford it. So in that regard I think I would like to stress that any these public financial support will make ASEAN green growth in that regard otherwise we will find a brown economy in the future. So with that I will stop and then take question later on we have interaction. Thank you very much. Thanks Dr. Han. Our forespeaker batting clean up to quote Dorothy Dwaskin is Michael Lifeman. He is directs GE power and waters long term power generation forecasting. Prior to working for GE Michael led the modeling efforts at the US Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Michael, thank you very much. I think Michael wants to use the PowerPoint Daniel. Yeah, thank you Murray and thank you CSIS for hosting and convening this really interesting and important day. While the PowerPoints being opened I should say I noted with some dismay that I was the odd man out and the only one bringing slides and that even the representative from Microsoft didn't bring a PowerPoint. So I don't know what that says. I'm going to apologize in advance to the folks on my left because I'm going to have to look a little bit at my slides over here. I'm going to echo some of the remarks that Dr. Han Sumita-san said about energy mix. I might have a few different conclusions but I'm going to talk a little bit about energy security through energy diversity and I'm going to focus really only on the power sector. I'm not going to talk about transportation oil but this is power sector and so the first thing I'm showing is that this is the mix of capacity across Asia so this includes China, India, ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Australia and you can see the brown there, the big wedge on the right has increased substantial percent. It looks like my percentages are not totally visible but you can see that the percentage currently at the end of 2013 is slightly more than 50% coal. The sort of green box in the middle there at 5%, that's the renewables, the 2% in red, that's nuclear. You can see that our projections for the following 10 years show beginning of a reversal of the trend for the last 10 years so again a lot of this is because of China. So this great run up in coal in China influences the entire Asian energy picture and over the next 10 years some of that begins to reverse. There's more nuclear, there's more wind, there's more solar, and gas kind of holds its own. Next slide please. Now across the different economies in Asia the growth varies and there are different reasons for that. There are different priorities for example priorities on nuclear in Japan which is still I think figuring out what will happen until all the plants that are now offline versus some of the ASEAN economies that are beginning to seriously consider nuclear as part of their energy future. You can see huge increases in the rates of solar and wind for example and across the ASEAN economies over 700% growth in those capacity over the next decade whereas coal you know still growing but not nearly as quickly as some of the other options. And again you know sort of a strong push for increasing role of gas across many Asian economies. Now to get to this point to get to a energy system or power system that has more diversity in it, less coal in it there are a number of challenges that economies will face and the first is as was mentioned by Dr. Hanans and Mita San the fuel price right so you can see on the left of these various bars the coal price across the region I've got some just representative economies here is significantly lower than both the diesel price and the gas price the second bar there is the price in 2024. So the difference between $2 gas and $14 gas in Malaysia or 4 and 16 in Japan I mean these are really enormous differences and so getting away from coal is going to depend on some required you know it's going to require concerted and long-term actions. Another challenge again as referred to by Dr. Han is that really huge increases in electricity demand and all the attendant infrastructure costs that come with that you don't just have to build a power plant you need to build the transmission you need to build the LNG terminals there's a lot that needs to be built. Despite that huge growth by the end of the following 10 years we still don't see the same energy access across Asia that we see in Japan or certainly not in the United States so for example by 2024 despite the really kind of unfathomable almost increases in electricity demand that we've seen in China and that we expect to see in China they will still have two thirds the electricity per capita than Japan today to say nothing of ASEAN or India so huge gaps will remain even after the coming decade of growth but there are even more challenges right so for example what will Japan how will Japan replace the nuclear fleet the portion of the nuclear fleet that won't return in Japan there's some very very high tariffs for wind so you know wind producers get an incentive to produce but there's very arduous permitting takes three or four years as opposed to one which is what it takes year to get a wind plant up in Korea it's very very difficult to site any new plants really strong nimbyism China has lots of new policies to discourage or almost prohibit in some cases the siting of new coal plants in many of the coastal provinces water use many of these power technologies require an enormous amount of water there's pressure from both agriculture and just general scarcity we were talking a little bit about issues in Lao PDR grid deposit is something that I think people don't quite appreciate it's very hard to power an island first of all if you don't have somewhere from which to move power in you have to have more plants available to provide reliable power but then of course transmission connections across islands or gas connections across islands is enormously difficult and then in the non-island countries of China you just have these vast expanses so huge transmission lines financing we talked a little bit about how hard it is to build a very heavy capex plant the op-ex the long-term operations of the plant get worse if you've got foreign exchange issues right so if you've got dollar denominated fuels and your local currency is weaker against that dollar then the cost of buying the fuel over time just gets harder and harder okay so GE is a technology company and so some of the solutions that I'm going to present are mainly technology solutions but so one way forward is more gas and more efficient use of that gas so the chart I'm showing on the left is the increase our projected increase in the natural gas supply in China over the next 10 years and it's about a three-fold increase by 2025 and how are they getting there some of it is pipeline from places like Turkmenistan some of that is increasing liquefied natural gas LNG purchases from all parts of the world some of that is unconventional gas their own shale gas resources and their own tight sands another kind of unconventional gas resources so more gas available through China similar kind of story not as dramatic excuse me for ASEAN but there's also a technology story which is that in addition to the supercritical coal or ultra supercritical coal there are new combined cycle gas plants so for those who aren't familiar with the terminology a combined cycle gas plant uses both a gas turbine and a steam turbine it's about twice as efficient as a coal plant and the very latest and the newest most efficient is from us it's called the HA combined cycle and we're talking about 61% efficiency which just a few years ago was really almost unthinkable so this is a dramatic improvement in how efficiently we can use gas next slide please another way forward this is something that I think is really going to lead to dramatic changes in ASEAN so Dr. Han talked about the lack of infrastructure for gas one of the ways that countries there are beginning to get around this is something called a virtual pipeline so what does this mean instead of the traditional route where you've got an actual pipeline brought in on a huge tanker on a humongous gasification facility for your LNG basically you have smaller LNG you have compressed natural gas or small LNG so if you can have CNG you can put it in a box basically you can just put it in a little truck and you can use roads and barges to get it to where you need it to get it without building a whole expensive pipeline and of course if you don't have if you're not committed to one pipeline you have much more flexibility in how you get from origin to destination so it provides a whole new degree of flexibility the first one in Indonesia we've got an MOU with Indonesia's state utility PLN to develop virtual pipelines and we've just commissioned recently CNG fueled island power plant and it's about a 35% savings versus diesel so really kind of incredible change in how gas is going to be delivered the scale of course is quicker it's months instead of years to get these things done displaces diesel there's lots and lots of advantages here in addition some of the engines that can use these gas turbines sorry that can use the gas can also use biogas so with all of the biomass resources in Asia we're talking about the remote islands in particular you can use woody biomass gasify them and put them in our reciprocating engines so flexible power solutions modular small post the tragedy of Fukushima you can't think of nuclear without first questioning how is it going to be safe one of the new technologies that GE has available is the economic simplified boiling water reactor ESBWR it's not much less of a mouthful but it's now the safest reactor design available it was actually just about a week ago I think passed another review by the US nuclear regulatory commission at NRC it passively cools for seven days which is twice as good as our competitor it's simpler in that there are far fewer components than a traditional power plant you don't even need steam generators anymore so there are fewer things that can go wrong you need fewer people to operate there are fewer things that can fail 11 fewer systems in total you need 20% fewer staff to operate so there are all these advantages to nuclear that I think we need to consider rather than writing it off entirely lastly, in terms of the solutions we're offering is wind plants that are designed specifically for land constrained environments so our 285, one of three in other words that's 2.85 megawatts per turbine that's a big turbine and the idea is that if you've got a land constrained environment you need power density, a lot of power from one turbine so this is a design that's made specifically for Japan, but obviously it could be transferred with just minor modifications to other land constrained environments I think that's it for the wind slide and that's it, thanks very much for your time Excellent, thanks Michael I guess as a layman, not an energy expert one of the questions that emerges almost immediately when I listen to these different presentations is that Michael has suggested there's a lot of pretty nifty technology out there that's a lot cleaner than what we're using now and Dr. Han says, yeah we'd like that clean technology but we can't afford it so my question really for any of you but particularly for Jonathan or Samita-san whether you know of financing that is available for emerging economies in Asia that want to buy cleaner even if it's coal, cleaner, burning technology but can't afford it is there credit out there some place? Yes, in the case of Japan Japanese investment bank JVIC is now supplying some financial support to Asian countries to introduce high efficient coal power plants and also we have many more schemes to help developing countries in Asia to deploy low carbon technologies Speaking from the US perspective this is a tricky landscape in lots of different ways First of all the technology landscape itself is never static so one of the things that we spend a great deal of time and focus on at the US Department of Energy in some of the technical collaborations that we have with international partners and with industry domestically in the United States is on technology development and coming down the cost curve and you can see if you look at some of the different suites of technologies across the energy landscape how dramatic the progress has been so you see massive reductions for example in onshore wind in solar PV the same starting to happen in concentrated solar power so the opportunities of today and of tomorrow are not identical point one Point two there is a strategy issue that is an important one to grapple with when it comes to coal technology the United States understands that coal will be a part of the global energy mix it certainly is a part of the energy mix of the United States although today's share of coal in our total fuel mix is significantly reduced from that which it was as little as 10 years ago you've seen a drop from where coal traditionally has been about 50% of the US fuel mix today it is just under 40 there was a point a couple of years ago and this in response to the real-time movement of natural gas prices in the US where a very surprising thing happened where you had coal and natural gas representing roughly equal shares for a short time about 32% of our fuel mix so we expect that coal will be a part of the fuel mix going forward both in the United States and elsewhere but then there's what technologies and so this has been a it is certainly true as Sumita San and Dr. Hahn have both underscored that all things being equal it is preferable to have higher efficiency coal technologies in the marketplace there's no question about that the US perspective though is that the use of public finance to support non-carbon capture technologies in the marketplace is not something that we feel is appropriate why? because as the IEA's Energy Technology Perspectives document that was just released in the summer stated and I'll quote I think appropriate distillation of this issue the unrelenting rise in coal use without the deployment of CCS carbon capture and sequestration technology is fundamentally incompatible with our climate change objectives and this is the dilemma that we are trying to find a way to manage so the United States does not support the broad use of public finance through multilateral or bilateral sources we do have an exception to that rule which is for the least developed economies but otherwise this is a conscious choice to try to put our emphasis in moving that technology frontier in sending the emergence of carbon capture technology into the marketplace as we are doing in our own market and from that seeing costs change so that this technology is broadly affordable Opening it to the questions I just would like to have idea actually I respect the Jonathan idea in terms of how public finance actually why we have to subsidize on coal kind of things but I think perhaps we have to stick to the reality in terms of foreseeable future that in our prediction that in terms of coal power plan it continues to rise I think in that regard if in terms of climate change and other I think we have said the same concern and interest but let's look analyze this reality and scenario carefully the lack of public finance on the CCT ASEAN and ESHL will find their financing system but that financing system will link to less efficient coal power plan so I think the scenario is which one actually you're going to take let's say superpower country like you as concern on environmental issue I think we carefully analyze those scenario because ASEAN going to end up in power plan for civil future in that regard they are seeking for the current available best technologies for better environment but lack of why we have to subsidize though I fully agree but we have to stick to reality for that we need to have support to make sure that until they have something breakthrough in terms of technology like LNG and other ASEAN cannot afford ESHL cannot afford as I state already that this excitement in US about sale gas Asia do not enjoy at all because in terms of energy security those gas demand is continuing to have sale but in terms of energy mix coal is more reliable and provide energy access to billion of people that not access to electricity coal the most thing that they are going to build up more power plan in that regard I still stick to the public financing to be more realistic and also provide a better environmental issue because it's a global issue anyway I do not just I want to say my concern only thank you Please we'll open that up to the floor back there please wait for a microphone and then please introduce yourself Hi I'm Nancy Tom from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace I actually just want to follow up on the previous question like with like multilateral financiers like the World Bank and the ADB being more reluctant to finance like co-power plans I was wondering if other financiers might actually step in into public financing like Chinese financier, Japanese financier or like the newly established development bank or AIIB so I would like to hear your opinions on that Thank you Does anybody have an answer? Our concern is the Japanese concern is that like that I mean if there's no public support from World Bank or ADB or something like that then the other organization like Bricks Bank or AIIB may have some opportunity to finance those projects in such a case if those new institutions have the same discipline like focusing only on the high efficient co-power plans then it's okay but if they have no discipline just financing every new project then it is quite miserable situation where the CO2 emission will be increased that's why we hope that developed countries should encourage the developing countries to deploy the carbon green coal technologies My name is Tom Cutler I'm an independent energy consultant and I first want to compliment the panelists for their presentations on what I would say are the long-term aspects of the changing calculus of Asia's energy security My question is on the short-term aspects of energy security in the region let's say contingency planning for an oil supply disruption So the questions are is the region prepared in terms of strategic oil stocks or oil sharing plans for an oil supply disruption is the institutional architecture of the region the various international forums such as the IEA, ASEAN, ASEAN plus 3 APEC as well as the East Asia summit are they up to the task in terms of the region's institutional framework in dealing with short-term energy crises such as an oil supply disruption using tools such as strategic oil stocks or international oil sharing plans and if not, what can be done? Thank you Tom, that's a great question and it kind of brings out the reality that simultaneously we all together have to do two things one is manage the situation in which one exists now and the other is put in place the tools and both institutional and technological that can help us to move forward I would say that from the US perspective we think that this issue that you've raised is a very important one and one where there has been some very very promising collaborations that have gone on but I would not for a moment say that it is sufficient In some regards to highlight a couple of examples of collaboration that has already been underway you could look at the work that the International Energy Agency has done with a number of East Asian partners looking at preparedness responses what strategic reserves are in place what one would do how industry could meet its requirements and continue to provide for the population Thailand for example has been a very active participant with IEA has done a couple of emergency response exercises has hosted a region wide engagement China of course is another very important East Asian partner in this regard as now the world's largest oil importer there I would say to be candid we hope to find deeper collaboration going forward with China China is building its own strategic reserves which is an important step to happen we think that there is a great deal of scope for technical and policy and other interactions so that China which has this enormous stake in the functioning of today's global oil markets can provide the kind of transparency that is the necessity for all global participants including China to make informed decisions and we welcome the steps that the Chinese National Energy Agency has administration has taken together with the Department of Energy to deepen collaboration in this area we think it's a really really important thing so institutional framework good start much more needed Thanks to Mike Tom for a question actually you yourself is the one who really understand more on this issue actually ASEAN in contact I talk about ASEAN that we have we try to come up with similar kind of IEA requirement of 90 days of strategic reserve that I think in terms of oil stock pilings and of course gas could be included in some of the country but this originally pat glovious for oil and ASEAN as you know that not many countries meet those 90 day requirement because more of the stock are hold at inventories at this company level so it less than 30 days mainly and then only some countries like currently Thailand and other stuff up commit to 90 days 60 days to 90 days I think except Japan and it's having almost 200 days I guess and China currently also building stock but we do not have might be caught clearly about China and I think in that regard in terms of ASEAN particularly we understand that building this kind of facility are very would cause investment and one time I have provided common during this meeting of upside because ASEAN petroleum security authorities that with support from IEA it's important that because when you build this strategic reserve it has to be linked closely in terms of economy it doesn't need for ASEAN country to have not holding stock for 90 days sometimes it's not necessary because there are many practice in the region you can exchange swap kind of thing it's important to look closely in terms of structure or economy of each country because the reserve itself just to prevent if there's any disruption within 7 days or 2 weeks it could hit the economy or that particular country so some countries are small in terms of structure or economy it do not have to stop up building those kind of reserve but regional cooperation in terms of trust and other it become more significant and important so ASEAN will look at the requirement but also will pursue in the way how very cost effectively we can implement this strategic reserve in ASEAN country thank you in the case of Japan we see the importance of the collaboration among Asian countries to respond to such kind of crisis so that's why recent years we have talked with ASEAN colleagues under the framework of Japan ASEAN or ASEAN plus 3 mechanism to how we can tackle this issue in a cooperative manner but the discussion is still in a very early stage so in such a sense it would take some more time until some kind of more concrete solution might be decided or agreed other questions please gentlemen here I'm Mark Wall former U.S. State Department of Wyoming my question concerns nuclear power we had some comments on that but the panelists care to comment further on the future of nuclear power in the energy mix particularly in Japan but also elsewhere in Asia as to Japan at this moment as you know there is no nuclear power plant in operation among the 48 nuclear power plants in Japan and in the past three years ago the portion of the nuclear power plants in the total power supply was 32% but at this moment that is zero now it's some kind of effort for restart some nuclear power plants is ongoing and as to the initial two nuclear power plants the nuclear regulatory authority approved the safety of those two nuclear power plants that's why we are now in the process of persuading the local people and I hope that in the early next year by the early next year we will have the restart of those two nuclear power plants and already 20 nuclear power plants have have presented the plan to ask for their approval to the nuclear regulatory authority so one by one those applications will be examined and during this one or two or three years time some more nuclear power plants will be restarted but at this moment it is very difficult to expect to what percentage we can rely upon the nuclear power plants but the very clear direction is that the Japanese government needs to decrease the dependency on nuclear power plants for a long term period just thanks so much for the question just want to share with you that for asian perspective so that you can understand that we do not deny any nuclear power actually it's always the option of the energy mix that will require a lot of human capital and also capital cost itself it's very expensive, it just cannot currently only Vietnam is under construction of those nuclear power plants but Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia also considering but I think they are a public opponent to those kind of nucleus in Asia, it's very strong we've seen Fukushima accident we are very concerned about nuclear power energy mix in the future in asian itself the institute area where I'm working for now we are working on more on emergency response and preparedness in terms of data sharing and other support in terms of accident how country are cooperated in terms of sharing data and information in a faster manner we can build a working group in asian members so again this nuclear is one of the options but perhaps it's not really now and also upfront cost very high 405 times higher than current cold power plant thank you Michael thanks for the question one of the issues with nuclear is also the infrastructure that needs to be added to the grid nuclear plant anywhere the transmission system itself needs to be robust and hardened and so for asian countries in particular that's one of the challenges it's not just the upfront cost of the plant but all of the infrastructure that comes with it elsewhere in asia the chinese ambitions for nuclear are sort of startling I think it's on the order of 50 gigawatts over the next 10 or 12 years that they are planning on adding but we've been encouraged with a recent news department signaling some willingness to relook at the nuclear liability law which is a major obstacle to development of nuclear there I just jump in to take advantage of this question and link back to the frame of this panel which is about energy security by its title from our perspective in the US we feel very very strongly that energy security derives first and foremost from a high degree of diversification and good systems including institutional systems around the energy economy we certainly will see nuclear being continuing to be a part of the fuel mix in the united states obviously other countries need to make their own choices but we do see a real value particularly in a world looking for low and no carbon energy solutions we see a real value in the civil nuclear sector and see this as being an area that is full of potential for important collaborations also again to move the frontier the technology frontier whether one is talking about small modular reactors or other new promising technologies that may be just over the horizon we're almost out of time but is your question fairly short because we have two or three minutes standing between us and lunch thank you this question is addressed to Dr. can you please identify yourself please oh I'm Nina I work for the Children's National Medical Health System this question is addressed to Dr. Foumin you mentioned population as one of the things that you would have to face eventually down the road either double or tripling or institute that you work with has it partnered with any ASEAN department of health agencies either at the regional local or national level to address this with the hope that it would eventually reduce the number of consumers and the demand for energy consumption thank you very much I think it's very hard for me to address this I think besides China I have a clear policies on those but ASEAN do not have any population policy in terms of have to actually we do not have kind of restriction but of course I'm an economic background perhaps I may not fully I'm aware of the issue but I think there's a lot of public health programs in terms of providing more safe and kind of maternal inequalities and children and other but it's not really control population growth in itself so ASEAN actually there's a sector working on those but I work for ASEAN in East Asia and not really particular type on those issues but I'm aware that there are no any policy that is control in terms of population growth for ASEAN itself and therefore I before I ask you to join me in thanking our panelists I need to make an announcement so right after this panel ends we're going to break for lunch people are requested to go get their food very quickly


FNN, The Tiger, Financial News Network, TFNN, Headline News Update. Welcome, folks.  That was a gain of 1.1 percent in the NASDAQ composite, seven-tenths in the S&P 500, and one-tenth in the Dow industrials. S&Ps' futures right now, they are at 3,026, folks. Your ABC structure with the price projection is 3,055. Next week, as we come into the marketplace, you have July 30th and 31st, a Fed meeting. We're expecting a quarter point cut, 25 basis points. You get window dressing, what I expect, we have lots of earnings coming out, what I expect we're going to see is that that S&P is going to run up into this 3,055, and the way it actually is crawled there so slowly, more than like you get more than a one-to-one ABC structure up. What that specifically means is that you can get up a lot higher, another 25, 50 points, get to that 3,100 inside that S&P futures. Dollar, gold, gold trading 14, 16 an ounce, gold still consolidating for higher price as is silver. Silver's trading $16.37. Light-sweet crude, different animal, man. Light-sweet crude, $56.15. That is having a hard time each and every time, except the $60 level gets slammed, comes down the other side. I expect we're going to see light-sweet crude down at about the $50 level. Notes and bonds, finished out the week, rejecting lower price, had lighter volume, bottom line that continue to want higher price, lower yield. We had the 10-year, finished out the week at $127.09, 30-year at $154.15. That, the 10-year right now is trading at $2.07. Looks to me like we're going to go down to the $1.71 number, a bottom line. When we get down to that, you're going to be seeing 30 mortgages at $3.25. Kingdala, Kingdala up $203 ticks. Now, what Kingdala did, Kingdala got over and closed over its high of May, which is $97.715. Now you get an emic volume out here inside Kingdala. So it's really going to be intriguing watching this shake out. But technically, you get over the high, you're closed over the high. Fundamentally, what would come out today is that the White House has been having meetings about basically pushing Kingdala around, getting into currency intervention. Larry Pet Kudlow is out here today denying that that is going to happen. He said that the administration is outside at this point, no intervention. Currency trade is going to be on edge for quite a while here, folks. Have a great weekend, have a safe weekend. We look forward to speaking right back here Monday morning, 9 o'clock. Well, go get them, folks.


I think we should care because there is not a single citizen on the planet, the 7 billion, who are convinced that the temperature and the extreme event that we are witnessing, you know, we have seen last week in Guatemala, the landslide which led to thousands of people dying. You have seen in India in June and September and August 2000 people dying due to headwave. We have seen in Europe in 2003 more than 70,000 people dying. The hurricane I was last week with that in New York and he was afraid not to be able to fly to Washington because there was this alert and we have seen what happened with the hurricane in New York, in Katrina, in U.S. and the fact is that for the last 30 years we had more than 8,000 extreme events and 90 percent are only due to climate change. This has led to climate refugees and some are of the view and there's not some. It's the G7 commissioned a report on climate change and security that the crisis in Syria is due to climate change. There was a couple of years of severe drought which led to thousands of people, you know, fleeing the countryside and going to the capitals and to the urban area and Sudan for some are also is considered as the first climate change war, Mali and so on and so forth. The CIA, the Pentagon are telling us that climate change has now reached a dimension which lead to peace and security. Water scarcity has been identified as one of the major cause of tomorrow war and conflict and some are predicting that even nuclear war and nuclear arm will be used to ensure, you know, the safety of the natural resources transport. Water scarcity, I'm coming from a country where severe drought is a major issue and the rainfall has been reduced by 32 percent since the independence 50 years ago with dramatic impact on food security. FAO are telling us that with owing to climate change more than 50 million tons of agriculture products will be missing on the market due to the scarcity of water. Sea rise level, you know, the experts are telling us that more than one meter of sea rise is expected. So, therefore, small island like Tuvalu, like Marshall Island, the Oasis, the small island state may disappear. Tuvalu has been the first country in the world to declare to all its population, 30,000, requesting the status of refugees because they know that life will not be possible if the water continue to rise. Health, you know, owing to air pollution, you know, it is proven in Nigeria, for example, we have every year more than 44,000 new cases of cancer and the experts are telling us that 25 percent of these causes of cancer are due to air pollution with air attack, asthma, respiratory diseases. So, the ocean also owing to the warming of the planet, the ocean is becoming more and more acid for the last 30 years, more than the acidity of the ocean has increased by 30 percent. And if the situation will continue and if the ocean continue to absorb all these CO2s that are emitted, the old ocean will become acid. So, therefore, marine life may disappear. So, the consequences are far reaching and the solution doesn't lie in the government, regardless of the size, but it's each and every citizen of the world that needs to be engaged in this battle in order to ensure that life continue to prosper on the planet for us and for our children and the generation to come.