All right, well, David, welcome back, my man. It's been a while since we spoke, and boy, oh boy, has a lot happened in the markets. It's good to have you on, how is everything? I'm well, it's good to see you again, Ricardo. And yeah, I mean, I feel like there's a cup run if over of things we could go to, of course, these days. Absolutely, I don't even know where to start. I'm just going to give it a throw in there. Start with the dollar. I mean, recently we saw the dollar edge higher. It had some strength against the basket of currencies. More specifically this week, but we've seen it for a while. And then suddenly, PMI data comes in yesterday, week or people are expecting a lot from tomorrow's Federal Reserve speech during the Jackson Hall. And then that's gone back to weaker. And there's a lot to untie there. What are you seeing there? What's going on? What are we expecting moving forward? Yeah, so I think it was last week. It was a very like 2022 kind of week. And 2022, for most that year, I sort of described the dollar as the wrecking ball for risk assets. So if you look at sort of the chart of the dollar, first three quarters of 2022, the average week was dollar up and pretty much everything else down. And I think that was such the trend in the market during that period. It changed quite a bit, obviously, in the fourth quarter of last year, weaker dollar, stronger risk assets. And that's kind of been the story going into 2023. But really, after the first couple of months of 23, it's really been more of a rangebound dollar more than anything. So you've seen a bit of a nice rally here recently.  And I think if there's a risk to where we're at now in the seasonally weakest part of the calendar year for stocks, which is August and September, usually leading into a fall low, a stronger dollar, I think, further from what we've seen so far would really put an exclamation point on that potential scenario where a stronger dollar really hurts other risk assets and causes other things to basically depreciate in value. So I think the bounce in the dollar here most recently is a potential emerging theme. But when I take a step back from the chart, I'm struck by actually how sideways the trend has been really for the last six months or so. Yeah, it's interesting, because that inverse relationship you talk about exactly, we've seen it with gold, with the S&P, but one of the things we've also mentioned or we've seen and that's been, I mean, the headlines for a while now is treasuries, right? The last time it was that low, it triggered a banking issue. And so we saw yields on the benchmark treasuries, we're talking about the 10-year hit, hit 16 new year highs. I was having conversation with a friend of mine and he was saying, it's so dangerous that if it goes up to 5.1, it could even go up to 5.7%, then we have issues. Again, weak PMIs yesterday, one data point, probably shift the narrative slightly, but two aspects there, do we expect treasuries to continue to go up? Is that yield curve going to steepen? And what's gonna happen tomorrow? Do you think the Fed is gonna come back, throw a hawkish message, take a stance, reiterate that this is a message about data, this is a message about inflation, the economy continues to be resilient and we're not stepping back down. Yeah, no, there's a lot. That could be an hour long conversation just on all of those themes, to be honest with you, Kara. I mean, and I think these are significant themes to try to figure out. I think the general trend in 2023 has been all about investors trying to appreciate and understand a rising rate environment. And I would remind all of us, many investors, particularly newer investors, kind of coming in during the COVID era, we've never really experienced any sort of rising rate environment. It's a very different environment than the zero interest rate, aggressive growth kind of period that we're coming out of. And I think recognizing the ripple effects of that sort of higher rate policy, I think we're still trying to get our head around. One of the biggest issues, I would say, for the equity markets here, which has been primarily a growth led market in the US for sure, if not globally, is that higher rates just aren't great for growth. The growthy part of growth, the promise of future earnings are less attractive, the higher rates are getting now. So I think the trend in higher rates over the last couple of months, I think you're starting to see now the impact of that as companies recognize and consumers deal with the fact that things are getting more expensive, right? So the Fed is intentionally trying to slow down the economy. You're seeing signs of that, certainly of that kind of working. The question now that I think Powell have to address is continuing to try to navigate this sort of quote unquote soft landing, which is how do you slow down the economy and get inflation in check, but not completely crush risk assets and economic conditions at the same time? Rates for now have been rising. I think there's plenty of upside still to be had with the tenure. I wouldn't be surprised if we get sort of in the mid-upper 4% range. I wouldn't think over 5% makes a lot of sense to me here, but what I would say is there's a difference between rising rates, which is what we've seen, falling rates, which we've certainly seen before, and just consistently high rates. And I think that third option is what we might see, which is not necessarily that would go dramatically further up from here, but that we remain elevated. And you have to remember elevated interest rates have a sort of an initial impact when people understand that's the new policy, but then there's sort of these additional consequences. So the next time you go to buy a car or buy a house or take a loan, that's when you're feeling the impact. And so I think the conditions will continue to be somewhat oppressive for consumers here for a little while. And I think that's what weighs on growth. That's why I think the rotation to value that we've seen here in the last six to eight weeks, I think that's just the beginning of that rotation of themes going into the fourth quarter. Yeah, I mean, a lot of great points there, you talk about conditions. One thing that pops up into my mind is the overbought conditions of the equity market, that extreme optimism that maybe still exists before the Fed says anything or we start to see data go back up, like inflation, for example, CPI data. And like you said, soft landing, there's a belief that the US economy can still achieve that. So these are all positive catalysts that we've seen help drive US equity markets up. S&P, NASDAQ, Dow Jones had a great run. Yeah, they got a hit because of the yields and the concerns that investors saw in that space. But all these put together, I think, if you look at what you just mentioned, the valuations well above historical averages. The full year earnings per share projections of stocks are yet to turn materially higher. We talked about the yields rising, we think that's still gonna be the case, et cetera, et cetera. So the rebound that we saw yesterday on the fact that the soft PMIs or the weaker PMIs, do you think that upside could be capped for now and there isn't much more to go higher or what do you think, especially going to this, I think the next topic of the pre-season or pre-election seasonality? Yeah, so I think there's gonna be a difference between the short-term reaction, right? Sort of that initial reaction to a low PMI or to NVIDIA beating earnings, those types of things, right? These create these initial reactions, which is a short-term positive reaction we've seen from equities with those sorts of news events. But I think what happens after that is investors after that initial reaction, you then sort of take a step back and think about the broader conditions. And the reality is those broader themes that we've mentioned, right? The idea of higher rates and the fact that rates most likely remain elevated for quite some time. Yeah, the reality that sort of the ultra-low interest rate environment is probably behind us for the foreseeable future. I think that is still the overarching theme that the markets have to sort of grapple with. And the ripple effects of, again, what the Fed has been doing with an aggressive rate hike cycles, how I would describe it. I think those are still, I think the impacts of those still sort of play out over time. So you saw a lot of signs, as you mentioned, of sort of an overvalue to what I call an overextended market, certainly May into June and then into the July high. And this is when all the growth names, kind of the magnificent seven names, as we call them now, continue to make higher highs and just felt like they could not go down. And then all of a sudden you saw the rotation down. You see charts like Apple and Microsoft gap lower. You see a lot of those fang stocks actually starting to gap down. And I think that was the initial move out of a multi-step move that kind of goes down. So this sort of bounce that you have on a week like this certainly feels to me, it has that feel of a contrarian move, sort of a counter trend move, which is pretty common, right? You have that initial impulse move. You have a bit of a reaction where initial buyers come in. But I think overall the themes that we talk about are not one day or one week themes. These are months and years long themes that I think the market will be grasping with for quite some time. So I think things like rotation, I would say the great rotation away from growth and into value, that's something that takes some time. And I think we're just seeing the beginning of that here. Perfect. I actually had a question which is quite interesting. I said, will there be more aggressive dip buying than rally selling? I guess you could see that in short term. Yeah, no good question. And that's sort of the general, that's one of the basic trading maxims. Yes, is this an environment to buy the dips or sell the rips? And I would say this is probably more the latter. And what's funny is that buy the dip mentality has worked pretty well in 2023, as you know, and a lot of stocks pulled back to their 50 day moving average and then would just keep going higher. And that is pretty classic behavior for a bull market phase. One of my mentors, Greg Morris used to say all new highs are bullish except the last one. And I think that's sort of that scenario. Buying on the dips works until the last one which isn't a viable dip, right? And that's what's most noteworthy. When a stock pulls back and then that bounce higher doesn't really propel us to new highs. That shows you that that buying momentum that has propelled prices higher is now starting to dissipate and that people are more excited to be taking profits up at these elevated levels. And we saw signs of that. I mean, if you, any sort of measure of valuation, you certainly could describe stocks as overvalued, certainly in the second quarter, going into the beginning of the third quarter in traditional valuations. And from a technical perspective, overbought and overextended, now you're seeing them start to come down. And I think a bounce like you're seeing this week, I think you start to see sellers come in. And you're seeing that in a lot of names which are gapping higher and then trading lower, which means there's a gap up and then people are super excited not to buy additional shares, but to take profits. They're thrilled to get out at an uptick. And that all of a sudden, that sort of selling mentality affects an individual there but then over time that really starts to create a downtrend. And again, I think that's how a more of a waterfall decline starts to play out over time. Absolutely. You mentioned this about bank stocks. It's another conversation I also had. We were having a lot of conversations these days. When we saw the Moody's cut the credit ratings of small mid-sized US banks, obviously that had some, several big Wall Street names that had them on negative review, but let's look at banks specifically. I think this is quite interesting. We obviously saw SVB breakdown other banks as well. And you look at the Q2 results when they were providing earnings and you saw profitability pressure start to increase. That would reduce their ability to generate internal capital. And specifically I was talking to them about Citigroup huge bank, now trading at the 2023 lows and it's probably now trading even below its post SVB breakdown. Do we still think that, I don't know who said this to me before but something has to break. Do we still think that banking is the way to go? You think that's gonna work, where the break is gonna happen? I mean, it's interesting how the financial sector in general really was showing signs of life here recently, right? And there was sort of this trend, as growth sort of gets more and more extended the natural thought is kind of what's next, right? What kind of steps in and takes that leadership role. People are rotating out of growth stocks like technology, where are they going? And I think you could have made an argument for financials. I think that was a legitimate one. Given the conditions, giving what was happening, if the yield curve is starting to steepen more and more this would be a better opportunity for financials but all of the ratings news that's come out has really put a damper on the sector. In the US, I mean, there are plenty of ETFs that track the banks or just look at the major banks like Citigroup, regional banks like Huntington or Key or Fifth Third these are all stocks that are rotating lower and a number of them had actually had some initial signs of life here over the last couple of months. But now all rotating lower. You mentioned Citigroup testing sort of the October 22 low currently. So I think the argument for financials here is a mean reversion argument. You're buying a sector that's beaten down that's testing lows and the question is how much worse can it get? I'm not as much a fan of that general mentality. I would much rather get interested in a space when you're seeing buyers come in or what I would say you're seeing signs of accumulation. And I think when you look at the charts of banks versus the charts of like the average energy stock, for example, there's a clear difference between a sector that is dramatically underperforming like financials and really not mounting enough of a bounce to believe in versus something like energy which is really showing signs of strength at that time. So I would much rather be focused on areas of the market that are starting to work as opposed to financials. And this shows you that when ratings take a hit it really impacts the stock price. You're seeing that certainly this week with the financial sector. Yeah, good point there. It's just occurred to me that we kind of alluded to very quickly about pre-election seasonality. We're going into stocks are typically weaker in September compared to even August. So weaker PMIs, possibly a more hawkish fed all the narratives we just spoke about. And if history suggests that this is going to be the case then do you expect more sloppiness going into September possibly even October? Yeah, and so seasonality is interesting, right? And I tend to think of it as sort of your base case, right? The seasonal trends tell you average movements and the tendencies that tend to play out which are pretty well documented and they're pretty consistent, right? I mean, there are just, there are times of the year which tend to be stronger or weaker. In a pre-election year after a midterm election year that has followed the seasonality so well I'm tending to think a lot more about the seasonal trends and focus on the reality there. In a midterm election year like 2022 usually have a weak summer into a significant bottom in October which is pretty much what we had last year and then a nice rally at your end. In a pre-election year, the first half of the year actually tends to be quite strong which we certainly have seen so far in 23. Then the second half of the year actually tends to be a lot murkier particularly after a strong August usually have a weak August and even weaker September. So the fact that we've peaked in July and now started the week in August, it's playing so brilliantly using that pre-election year playbook which you have to remember is the fourth quarter is where you usually have a nice improvement. So the average year is pretty strong going into that holiday season in a pre-election year, no different. So the idea sort of the base case that we would have a peak in the summer, June, July, a weaker August and September setting up a fall low and then a nice rally into your end I think makes a ton of sense. The challenge I would say for an equity investor is where do we actually end up? And I wouldn't be surprised if August and September pull us down a bit. I mean, S&P 4200 is kind of that the downside target that I'm focusing on for here. I don't think that's an unreasonable target given the deterioration they've seen. That'd be sort of a continuation of the move we've seen so far and maybe a parallel drop to what we've seen so far in August. But that could set us up for a really nice rally into your end. I wouldn't, I don't know if we necessarily would make new highs but I think we'd probably finish the year in a position of strength. So tactically thinking of your portfolio between now and your end I think that's a good sort of framework to consider for sure. Yeah, interesting one of the topics. You absolutely know this is gonna come up in video. Yesterday, monstrous earnings. That's how to pick up the S&P major indices. What's going on there? Do we expect certain stocks to continue to do well? Is there a correlation as well between the strength that the dollar now playing as well between moving stronger against other pairs or actually weaker? Yeah, no interesting question. In video, I mean, all eyes have been on Nvidia's earnings because really, I mean if you think about what narrative has driven the 2023 rally in the first half of the year is all about artificial intelligence and chat GPT and all of these things all of a sudden AI becomes the most important topic of all and all companies and we think about all companies are trying to demonstrate how committed they are to AI and how important it is to their business to try to be a part of that upside. And so names like Nvidia are about as a direct play into the AI crazes you can make because they're basically making the chips that fuel all of that, all of the artificial intelligence that we would be using. So an incredible rally year to date and I think the importance about earnings right now in August is because we've had such a run so far and so anytime you have a narrative like this that has driven stocks further and further to the upside at some point the risk is this sort of we wake up from the dream moment and realize, okay, now we're way higher than is reasonable. And so I think a lot of the expectation was just knowing if there's further upside besides the upside we've had so far. I mean, and Nvidia is already a triple in 2023 before earnings this week. So is there enough momentum to keep going? I think what's happened so far today is you've gapped higher to around 500 and actually traded lower. So I would say my initial reaction in the after hours yesterday pretty encouraging, good news, stronger revenues, very encouraging looking forward, stocks trading higher in the after market that all is pretty positive. What's happening so far today is actually gapping higher and trading lower, which makes me a little less excited about that because that tells me that after that gap people are super excited about cashing out of Nvidia around 500 and this is causing some downward movement. I think that's the danger for growth stocks here is you have a company like Nvidia reporting strong earnings at the surface level and you go into the details there's not a lot to be disappointed with. So it seems like it could be pretty strong. Nvidia doesn't go up much further than this. I mean, on previous earnings report it's gapped higher 10, 20, 30%. That's not what we're seeing today. We're seeing a slightly higher move and then some distribution. So I think that tells you that investors for lack of better return, I think this is a sign of buyer exhaustion that the momentum that has gotten us to this point is kind of dissipating. And unfortunately that's what causes prices to go up further from here. You have additional buyers willing to pay more and more for something. I don't know if I'm getting that feeling after Nvidia. So I think the risk for sort of that fang trade of the magnificent seven trade is even companies with stronger earnings if they're not able to materialize significant gains afterwards that tells you the conditions in the market and tells you to be concerned about again, just a bit of a retrenchment here in the third into the fourth quarter. Yeah, really interesting. I wanna shift a little bit. We spoke a bit about the gold and the commodity sector. We saw gold shockingly make further downside progress. Several reasons we already know, the dollar strength, et cetera. Now that it's starting to slightly pull back after yesterday's news, what is your overall take on gold? Do you think we'll reach that 2000 level or are we gonna trickle even more down? Yeah, it's interesting and it's frustrating for gold. I would say, again, looking back at what's happened in the last couple of years, if inflation has been such a core part of most people's thinking in terms of market strategy and the fact that something like gold has not done better in the face of raging inflation is a bit of a surprise. Now, there have been times when it's actually done quite well, right? So sort of the end of last year, first half of this year, gold was doing very well, as you mentioned, sort of testing new all-time highs, which is encouraging. But now you've seen it draw down. I think, as you mentioned, I think the stronger dollar is what's been killing that. That's what happened in 2022, sort of when gold should be a really good bet. The strong dollar and the really significantly stronger dollar sort of killed that trade. I think you're seeing a lot of that same thing here. So if you're concerned or if your take is that the dollar goes higher from here, that just limits the upside potential on something like gold until you get a bit of a change there. I think the best thing that could happen for gold, which I think is a possibility, as I mentioned from a technical perspective, I'd probably describe the dollar not as in a strong uptrend, but as in a sideways trend. And if the dollar can kind of remain range bound and sort of just be at an equilibrium state of some sort, I think that gives room for risk assets potentially, but definitely for gold to go higher, other commodities as well. So that's what I would be looking for. For now, gold is sort of testing support, right? It's pulled back in testing the June lows right now. I'd love to see a break up above the trend line using the last couple of months, which I would be a little bit higher above current levels, but I wouldn't be surprised if materials in general do better than they have. The commodity space I still think is part of a broader rotation higher, and that's one of the things that takes the place of gross stocks that I think are taking a breather here. Yeah, that's interesting. We looked into the price of WTI crude oil, that's been on the rise as well, natural gas, et cetera. So do you ever feel that in addition to those and what's going on with China, their deflation passing on to other countries that the combination of those, we're gonna be surprised moving forward by looking at the inflation numbers in the US and probably even UK. So it's a really interesting point. I think China is one of those. It's interesting how we have so much happening right now with the Fed, with inflation, with AI. China, I think in some ways has been kind of pushed away a little bit mentally for a lot of investors, but you have to remember that a lot of the commodity prices are a reflection of what's happening with the global economy. It's certainly with the expansion in China. I'm concerned when I'm reading more articles recently talking about the China economic slowdown, talking about huge infrastructure spending that now certainly would be described as excessive, I would say by most people. So I think that is a challenge, right? Basic materials are needed when you're building out a lot of things. And so if that is kind of stalling out in one of the largest economies and most growing economies in the world, I think that's a bit of a concern. The fact that China has had this run of expansive growth, if that would really continue to slow down and we would see more signs of weakness, I think that has ripple effects that a lot of investors probably are underappreciating. And that's one of those sort of, I think underappreciated themes that could be a big narrative here going forward for sure, going into your end especially. Yeah, not far away from China, I've been looking a lot into the dollar yen and this monetary policy stands that's adopted by the Bank of Japan. Now, there's many factors, but we see the strength of the dollar yen. You think that's gonna continue? You think the Bank of Japan are gonna move things around, especially that relationship that you also see between the 10 year and the dollar yen, which you see that correlation at some point. So all these factors playing in, what do you see? No, definitely. And I would say, I mean, if you're looking at the domino, I don't tend to look as much particularly at the currency crosses. I tend to think more of a dollar, more broadly speaking. And I think that's the reality is that the biggest risk for US-based investors, if you're looking at US thoughts, is the prospect of a higher dollar. In general, that hasn't tend to play well with risk assets, particularly equities here. And so I think the biggest danger would be the dollar sort of pushing to the upside from what we've seen so far. Yeah, perfect. You know, it's kind of final comments. Going back into the Jackson Hall, I think a lot of people are saying, don't be too optimistic. There is room for more tightening. I don't think the Fed is that happy. Inflation's still there, et cetera. You mentioned this at the beginning, but if you'd summarize it to the audience, what are you looking for specifically? What should we mostly focus on and filter out that noise that goes through these couple of days? Yeah, so the two big events this week, as I was looking forward, Nvidia's earnings, which we've now sort of, I think, started to digest, and then the next big meal we're gonna have to finish the week is Powell from Jackson Hall. I think, honestly, the Federal Reserve, I do not envy the role that they have to play. I mean, if you think about what they are being asked to do, it's essentially pilot the Titanic, which is this huge economy, and the control movements you make, there's such a lag between anything you do and what's actually happening to the ship. And I think that's the reality where we think that the Fed has instant contrar. We raise rates and then all these other things happen. There are ripple effects upon ripple effects that are all a huge guess, I would say, is the best way I can describe it, right? It's guesswork, it's educated guesswork, but it's still guesswork on what to happen. Besides the levers that they can pull in terms of monetary policy, it's also the PR exercise of trying to convince the world and convince investors that they're on top of things and that they were aggressive when they need to be and less aggressive when that would be the right move. So I think it's a challenge. The role of the Fed is to keep the markets functioning and to provide liquidity and provide orderly markets. And I think the challenge that they have is to bring inflation down, which is basically intentionally trying to slow things, right? They are intentionally trying to make things more expensive. They are raising rates to sort of slow down economic growth. And the reality is, do they do that too much that all of a sudden really starts to create problems, right? Because things are getting more expensive and people are spending less money and all of that. So I think the reality is it's a very difficult role. I think what they will try to communicate is that they are continuing to be data dependent. That's a phrase that they used very, very often, which is focusing on the data. As you mentioned, we've had recent data, sort of representing sort of those incremental changes in economic conditions. What we have to remember is that inflation still has not come down to the bogey, that 2% bogey that they've talked about very often. So I think the reality is there's still a gap between what they've done so far and where they want to be. And the question is, have they done enough if they just would sort of hold off and keep rate steady, do we come down? The futures market is actually pricing in potential rate hikes at the end of this year again, which is sort of a new development. That's, for a while it was, of course there aren't gonna be any future hikes and then when are rates gonna come down? What's happened now is there's actually a slight chance according to the futures market that rates actually go even higher at the end of the year. And the idea of rates coming down has actually been pushed out further and further into next year. So I think the reality is and that's why I talk about the prospect of rates remaining high. I don't hear a lot of language from the Fed talking about the light at the end of tunnel is very close and all of a sudden things are gonna get easier. I think things have gotten more expensive and what we have to remember is four to 5% on the tenure is not that high. If you look at historical averages it's actually pretty reasonable. So we're actually I think maybe getting to the new normal and the Fed can go above or below that new normal but I think it's a different regime here. So I think the Fed will try to summarize everything I just said in a nice little packed but I think their goal will probably be that we have the ability to rate high crates if needed and it'll be data dependent. I'm concerned that inflation has not come down more given all that they've done to date and I think the worry would be that there's implication of further rate hikes coming. I think that kills risk assets very, very quickly. No, I absolutely agreed. We talked about the soft landing almost very quickly or we're gonna avoid a recession. I saw it sharp today. I'll share that with you later but it basically said the last time in 2006 and 2007 where we said, oh recessionary fears are now starting to fade. People are having more optimism. We went into that recessionary phase and obviously we saw the financial crisis deep. What do you think? Yeah, it's good question. And I would say that, you know, I keep going back to the yield curve, right? I mean, if you, what I was taught a couple of years ago when I got started the industry was an inverted yield curve is not a good sign, right? And I've heard all sorts of justifications recently as to why, you know, this time is different at which I'm always super skeptical of, right? Here are the yield curves inverted but it's because of et cetera, et cetera and that's why it shouldn't be a big deal. I was taught the yield curve inverts that is a really good sign of recessionary phase where session, you know, again, it's not directly connected to the timing of a market regime. The market usually sells off in anticipation of recession and recovers at, you know, before the economic conditions start to improve. So if all we've seen, you know, if we are in that recessionary period and if the conditions really are that bad and we're setting up for that, if this is all the pain that we've seen in risk assets, I would say that would be one of the most unique recessionary periods we've ever experienced in the average recessionary period would say risk assets need to come down quite a bit more. And again, that is what's in the back of my mind as I think about this being the initial pullback within more of a drawdown phase. So if we do see strength into year end, I think looking forward into next year, looking forward into what Fed policy starts to look like, I think investors are certainly trying to price in a recovery and a soft landing and an easy exit from this. I think recessionary periods tend to be a lot longer than we probably have patience for. And I think risk assets are gonna have pressure for a while. I think it's gonna be more of a tactical environment. And I think a good approach here is to think a little more tactically and look for opportunities in the short term, look for opportunities in the derivatives markets where you have the ability to pull different levels at levers as opposed to just sort of the buy and hold strategy which may not be an ideal setup here going forward. One of my last questions to you, David, I know you're not gonna like this, but do you think the market's gonna start to lose trust in the Fed? Ooh, you're implying that there's a lot of trust in the Fed now, but they're gonna lose it, right? I don't know. I mean, I think that's debatable, right? I think the, again, the Fed is one bad headline away from feeling like they're, I don't wanna say incompetent. That's the word that comes to mind, or I guess, unable to really do what they need. What they try to reinforce and what Powell I'm sure will try to communicate is that they are very focused on the data and they are ready and able to do whatever is needed to fix things, but you're implying that they have the ability to do a certain thing now and have a particular outcome that they can predict and have no side effects that are unexpected. I think the idea that that is true is probably super unlikely. They're always gonna be sort of unintended consequences of any of these, and I think you're, we're just starting to feel that now again. I think rising rates, pushing rates higher on the short end to slow down the economy sounds like a great plan. What that is doing to small businesses, what that is doing to people's incomes, what that is doing to their ability to buy things when they would need to do so is all starting to be felt, but continues to be felt. I think as that continues to be felt and the average consumer is struggling more and more, the idea that the Fed is doing what needs to be done is probably a lot less attractive and feels a lot less optimistic. So I'm concerned to be honest with you about the stability that the Fed implies versus the reality of what they're trying to do. I think keeping inflation lower by slowing growth seems like a good approach. It has a lot of negative effects that I think we're probably underappreciating now. Yeah, I completely agree with that one. These are all the topics I have now, David. Anything we haven't covered that you think we should cover are we ready to move forward? The last thing I would, I mean, the only other thing I would say is that, I mean, the only other technical comment I would make just is the dramatic change that we've seen in leadership from growth to value. I think another way to think about are terms of breadth conditions. I think we look back in future years back to 2023. I think the good news is not that everything was easily predictable, but you're finding clear signs in September and October of 2022, some clear signs of capitulation, some signs of breadth conditions being completely bombed out, being kind of everything is going down, and then you start to see improvement. And I think you've seen the opposite of that here in June and July and into August, right? Particularly at the growth, I don't think future textbooks should look back at growth names certainly sort of getting a little bit in front of their skis a bit, and the signs that breadth conditions sort of showed of extreme optimism. Sentiment indicators like survey data being extremely bullish in June and July, and now you're starting to see a right sizing of that. For me, 2023 is reinforcing the value of paying attention to investor sentiment probably more than anything else. And so I think I'll continue to do so. Perfect, that's all I have for you today, Dave. It's always a pleasure, absolutely. And I look forward to another conversation with you. Maybe we can see how things have gone, how things have transpired, and if the market has actually completely lost trust in the Fed, we'll see in the next couple of months. I hope not. We'll see, Ricardo. Yeah, good to chat with you as always. Take care. All right, thank you, Dave. Have a good one.


To support new things You know instead of being a stumbling block the local church can be the encourager the Inspirer the the permission giver to be innovative and even allow its people to leave the walls of the church and And do new things when a new space is started The local church can pray for them and help spread the word It's real important to understand new spaces are not about replacing the local church. They're alongside it. I Think too we do our own members a service when we give them new options You know so many times what happens you get a new person in your church They're finally willing to step up and volunteer say I'm willing to do something and say well You know what we have an opening on trustees or we really need a new Volunteer on youth ministries. No trustees are important and youth ministry is vital. Absolutely But that might not be where that person is being called to serve It might not be their passion. It might not be the way they want to serve God and the church So perhaps Maybe there is room for new and vibrant ministries In fact, we need new ways of doing new and vibrant ministries Why just to increase our numbers. Well, no, I mean numbers are nice But it's not about numbers. It's about making disciples And the fact is we've heard it from Adam we heard it at the laity session the other day you can see it in the reports that keep coming out And in fact there was one just a few months ago the number of people who are leaving the church is in fact accelerating It's the percentages are growing faster than people had expected So the fact is we live in a world and a society that is just Increasingly being filled with the nuns and the duns the spiritual but not religious with an entire generation with Dwindling interest and even setting foot in any church with doing anything with organized institutional religion and Certain segments of society that yeah, they will not step foot in a brick-and-mortar church. It's not gonna happen I mean the days are just gone when we can put up a building slap the church sign on the front and expect that people are Gonna come running to us. I we're fortunate here. We live in the Bible Belt, but even here we're losing ground so in addition to the inherited local church We need pioneers and entrepreneurs with the gifts and the graces Together people in new ways and new venues so we can meet them We're there at so that we can tell them about a Wesleyan understanding of grace and we can show them a God Who loves them more than we can ask or imagine? We were reminded at the laity session that Jesus did not say make the disciples come to me Jesus said go and make disciples That is the point of new faces new spaces Similar work is already being done around the country the Florida conference For example, they have a variety of initiatives with such wonderfully descriptive names as the tattoo parlor church painting and parables dinner church Bibles and bait Cinema conversation greens and grace theology and comics and my personal favorite recovering from bad religion But the fact is we don't have to go outside of our conference to see original work We've been seeing original. There we go. There's a slide break. We've been seeing videos Throughout a new conference showing this there are more to come In addition this past August so every year the board of laity and lay servant ministries has a joint event The one coming up by the way is August 18th save the date So she must plug there But the one we had this last August was about innovative ministries in our conference and there were over 25 of them shown Most of them led by laity. I should point out from giving gardens to Juvenile detention from coffee shops to working with the homeless our conference already has this undercurrent of activity just waiting to have the permission and the opportunity to be unleashed We're blessed with individuals such as tindra salt who's out at lovers lane She started a ministry to pair adults and special needs kids to help mainstream those kids in society She works with their African congregations with people from to integrate the children from multiple countries She visits the homes of refugees just so that these people know that they are seen and they're valued and they're heard She is doing unique ministry and it is making a real difference in the world That is what new faces new spaces is hoping to accomplish Just imagine what it would be like to no longer be Slotted into certain ways of doing ministry to no longer be leased to the usual ways of doing things To be able to try new ideas for reaching others to have a chance to do new ministries to have a way to live out Your passion and you're calling and You won't have to do this on your own See as part of this work the conference is going to provide support including group coaching cohorts Retreats with like-minded people.  They just need to gather new faces to make new disciples There are a lot of people who need to hear the message we have to offer Fortunately, there are a lot of Methodist in North Texas, and you know what most of them are laity So whether you're in the local church or in new spaces Let's focus on unleashing the power of the laity Give them the opportunity and the permission to flourish because then we unleash the power of the church to build the kingdom of God Right here on earth. Thank you for your time. Thanks for listening and Bishop this Thank You Jeff Concluding our morning, and I know there are a couple of other things on the agenda But concluding our morning will be the centers for the from the North Texas conference someone to say a special word of Appreciation to Marty's super Andy Lewis and Owen Ross for the alignment work that has been going on in the in the conference Of what you will hear about The other persons who are in the choir loft I understand are part of the presentation I was getting a little scared then for a little bit anyway, so I Want to thank y'all and so we gladly hear this report There will be a couple of announcements after this report related to our time when we go to lunch and To update you about what we'll be doing this afternoon Many of you remember the day when there was no competition for church on Sunday mornings No sports no school activities and even the stores that were open on Sunday did not open until after church was over I grew up in the country and I did not have cable TV And even if I wanted to skip church to stay home and watch TV the only thing on the four channels. I got was church Even when I was a kid, which wasn't that long ago It seemed like everybody went to church. The only real question was which church Friends those days are gone the United Methodist Church has experienced a steady decline over the last 50 years Not only in membership, but in prestige The broad context in which we do our ministry is one where people are much more attached to the culture than to their churches Adam Hamilton mentioned it yesterday Every generation is now experiencing growth in the numbers of nuns and nuns and only one-third of our young people Affiliate with any kind of organized religion for many people the church is out of touch and irrelevant So if we want to offer a compelling witness to the gospel of Jesus Christ in this new day We must do something different Something new so here the good news We worship a God who specializes in doing a new thing As the prophet Isaiah shares with us God says I am about to do a new thing It is springing forth. Do you not perceive it? I will make a way in the wilderness and rivers in the wasteland Amen Since last July the three of us along with our district superintendents and the rest of the extended cabinet have been working to discern That new thing that God is doing in our midst and then to align our work around that new thing As a result of that discernment and alignment process, we have been meeting together more We've been collaborating more and more and more we've begun to see ourselves as all part of one team So that's why we're standing together before you to offer one combined report rather than three separate reports to share about our center's work and The theme that runs through this report is new faces for new spaces We believe that gathering new faces and new spaces is the new thing that God is doing and moving forward It will be for us our chief missional strategy for helping you to be successful To connect with your mission fields and to make disciples of Jesus Christ And we're talking about our role in this new strategy in this way We are here to be catalysts to catalyze gatherings of new faces and new spaces in and through every local church and targeted mission fields Many churches are already doing this. They are gathering new faces and new spaces You have seen video examples of some of these and while clergy may lead many of these Most of these will be led by laypersons For example, St. Luke community itself a community church asks itself Where do young African-American men gather? They said the barbershop So now on Monday evening St. Luke community church has started a Ben's Bible study in a barbershop And they had plans to multiply that in barbershops throughout South Dallas Here's another example For 40 years volunteers from first United Methodist Church in Gainesville have run a ministry called star Which stands for a second time around? Star provides necessities like clothing furniture household goods for people in need all around Gainesville But recently the leaders of this ministry have made an intentional shift to see their neighbors To see those who were customers as now potential partners in ministry to be in ministry With their neighbors in a relational way and not merely a transactional way And as a result Discipleship is happening at star their newest volunteer is a gentleman who first came in need of clothing Now he volunteers there every day and worships at first UMC in Gainesville. Amen Windsboro, Texas is home to 3,500 full-time residents But attracts many more people who go to Windsboro because of the beautiful lakes unique boutiques and specialty Restaurants during her daily walks through town Pastor Debbie Lyons made an effort to meet all of them the entrepreneurs and shop owners on Main Street One of the shop owners who had not been to a traditional church in years Met Debbie and was so impressed and hungered so much for the word of God that she offered the loft above above her shop for Bible study The gathering is now a weekly event Scheduled around the timing of when those shops open so shop owners can get to their shops in time to open them up at 10 o'clock So these are all examples of new spaces for a new day and friends We have a bold vision a vision for every local church large and small Urban rural suburban to be dreaming about new spaces and working toward creating them Our vision is for laity Even more than clergy to be creating these new spaces Our vision is for us to recapture our Methodist zeal for connecting with the mission field and making disciples in fresh and innovative ways recognize that there was a present need for young adults here at Hamilton Park the important thing is that we're planning those seats seats in the gospel in those lives and 30 years from now 10 years from now those seats may grow You know change is only hard and especially when you're older. It's even harder But yeah, it was difficult at first to some folks, but I really think it's been a great great asset mark our pastor This is my church And he came to me one day and he said how can we help because I had gone to treatment And when I came back to treatment, he said how can we help what what can we do as a community? To wrap our arms around you and help you through this So at this point you might be wondering we hope you're wondering what exactly do you mean by a new space? Hopefully based on the videos the vignettes you've heard It's clear that new spaces can take on many different shapes and forms as you dream about new spaces We want you to be creative to listen to the unique needs of people in your mission field With that said however, we envision new spaces having these four things in common First a new space gathers new faces a new space does not merely gather already churched people in New ways by design it gives un-churched and De-churched people the kinds of people that we will remind that Jesus spent his time with a fresh experience of Christian community Without new faces. It's not a new space second new space meets regularly Regularly could mean weekly regularly could mean monthly it could be something in between a new space could meet regularly online a One-time outreach event however is not a new space without regular meetings. It's not a new space Third a new space relates to a United Methodist church entity Most new spaces as we envision them will break the mold of typical forms of church But a new space is still a part of the body of Christ And so every new space will have a supportive Connection to a local church or a campus ministry or some other United Methodist church entity But listen to this next Sentence this is so important The point of that connection is not for that new space to Necessarily funnel new members into the local church and feed the institution The point of that connection is for the institution to support and cultivate and nurture that new space Without a connection to a UMC entity. It's not a new space and Fourth a new space forms Disciples There are lots of ways to define a disciple The definition that we're using is a disciple is a person who follows way of Jesus So every new space will help people follow in the way of Jesus Some will do that with a strong component of Bible study But others won't some will have a strong element of hands-on service and justice work But others won't Still others will utilize music and liturgy But others won't the way that disciples are formed will vary based on context But without discipleship It's not a new space We are excited about the potential of new spaces and how they will help us as a conference Connect to our mission fields and make disciples We're excited about how this work of innovation has the potential to shift the culture of our congregations and of our conference But the North Texas conference remains committed to the work of improvement to resourcing churches and existing spaces as well This time last year there was a transition in our center And I was giving the great opportunity to lead the healthy church initiative Which is celebrating five years since our first churches entered the process through the HCI churches have been transformed new ministries have been birthed and Hundreds of peoples have been touched by the churches that have really worked hard in transforming their church In these five years over 50 churches have participated in HCI If your church or if you have participated in any of the phases of HCI that From HCI SCI LCI if you or your church have participated in HCI will you please stand so we can recognize you In the center for church development really express our gratitude towards our coaches our consultants our pastors and especially our laypeople That have really worked hard to make the HCI process a success We continue to work with HCI and with the help of my amazing design Folks and I have created a new process for HCI this process will help churches that already have Gone through the HCI process because we looked at our present our past and our future objectives and We were wondering well, what's next? Well HCI Next is what's next? So this process again is for churches who have been through HCI and want to continue looking really hard at themselves and Continue to transform in the way they do church The process again looks at the hard selves at our hard selves and make sure that we know How to enhance our ministries but for the churches that have never gone through HCI You're probably wondering. What is this girl doing here? Who is she? HCI we still will continue to do HCI the original process And we will continue to provide that process for you in the original process itself. So thank you HCI is a hard process for anyone who's been through the three phases know that it is a hard process It was based off a book called renovate or die and For and for many as I've talked to them HCI has just been too hard For others, they're not ready to engage into the into the deep change of their church And for and so plainly spoken HCI is not for everyone For some churches and I know I can feel this way. I Like my church how it is. I like the songs I sing. I like the way we sing them And I like the people I sing them with So what new spaces does Is it comes to you and it does not ask necessarily for a deep change in your existing spaces It doesn't say the songs you sing you must stop seeing them Or you now must sing them to a guitar and drums or you need to sing them with different people But we do know that we still have the great commission We do know that not everyone likes the songs and the style that we sing in And we do know that god is calling us to reach out to them And so we are entering into this process to equip you and assist you in creating new spaces That will reach new faces While continuing to maintain and strengthening Our existing spaces New spaces does not say to you renovate or die new spaces says to you Create Where new faces can gather will require us to leave the building and get to know our communities It's time for all of us to increase our cultural intelligence so we can effectively communicate and work with others Our neighbors may speak an unfamiliar cultural language a language based on national origin On political ideology race gender Age or many others to name a few The spring this spring folks standing with me Gathered for two days equipping a two-day equipping event led by reverend doctor maria dixon hall They have both a passion for and experience with cross cultural settings and relationships Let's take a look as a conference. We want to do a couple of things We want to do a cultural intelligence training that could be available In a broad way across the conference That we can utilize in churches We can help churches to understand their mission feel better. We can help churches to Know who their neighbors are and how that may or may not feel comfortable and why so that they can be Intelligent and how they reach out to their community and meet their neighbors It's impacting me as a person coming a culturally intelligent person and What I appreciate about cultural intelligence the difference I think from diversity training is The goal is to love Not just to have an appreciation for differences And learning how to work well across those cultures and knowing yourself and having a cultural intelligence about yourself is Beneficial for not just your own work for the world of others. This is a wonderful way to really put together how I could minister and how to reach out more people outside the church community particularly And I think knowing and having tools on how to understand people I will make the church kind of grow and send myself as a pastor and knowing and relating to people As clergy our first call is to proclaiming the gospel of jesus christ And so we're not just talking to people in the pews. We're talking to people in the neighborhood We're talking to the people in the restaurant. We're talking to people in the doctor's offices We're talking to the people that we will encounter every day So if clergy are not equipped to begin to have the skills the knowledge To strategize for these conversations. They really are not able to fill the call of being a minister of the gospel At its heart cultural intelligence is simply the belief that every one of us has a primary cultural language That scripts our behavior scripts the way that we see the world and it scripts the way that we communicate But friends we can learn new languages And the more languages that we speak The more effective our communication will become Cultural intelligence is all about knowing the communication needs of the people we are in relationship with So that we can work together more authentically And more effectively To do this we have to be aware of our own invisible cultural scripts We need to know the biases that blind us and prevent us from successfully engaging in cross cultural relationships and ministry Our hope in the north texas conference Is to deploy this team of very gifted leaders to support congregational learning Whether it's for cross cultural appointments Or where our neighbors and colleagues need to speak a different cultural language We believe that cultural intelligence will help us communicate strategically And learn how to be in relationship with the communities with which we are surrounded And when we are in relationship Our differences Yes, our differences Will strengthen our common ministry Cultural intelligence training The zip code connection which began in 2013 is another way we're exploring the how Of gathering new faces in new spaces Through the work of christian community development and advocating for systemic justice The zip code connection was first imagined with two orienting goals The first was to focus our collective impact as the north texas annual conference in long-term ministry With our neighbors in two areas one rural and one urban For the purpose of overcoming systemic oppression and generational poverty And the second goal was to extrovert these learnings that happen in these two areas to the rest of our conference So that we can inspire and Strengthen similar efforts that are already going on and that just might be Today the zip code connection is working to help clarify and listen deeply to the dreams of residents in clarkville and red river county And south dallas fair park for the dreams that they have for their own community and neighborhoods neighbors desire places That their neighborhoods become places That are more fully vibrant thriving communities Recognized as good places to live work learn do business raise children and practice one's faith And since 2013 we have learned a great deal much of it through trial and error We've learned to not bite off more than we can chew And to only go where we are invited by people of peace Now we are confident that some of our new efforts will make us even better partners with our neighbors and these communities And beyond these are three of those new efforts developing local leadership Both zip code areas are convening local advisory teams to guide their development Knowing that local leadership must be encouraged and nurtured to create sustainable futures The texas methodus foundation is experimenting with us and adapting the oldy conversations discernment process Normally used in local churches This adapted process focuses the advisory teams on three questions Who are we now as a community and organization? Who are our neighbors? And what difference is god asking us to make? As part of the center for missional outreaches pivot toward catalyzing local church efforts The zip code connection is exploring ways to engage both areas through local churches Existing organizations and in partnership with pastors and lady who are passionate about and committed to Connecting to their community in a deep and relational way Some of those local church leaders from both Clarksville red river county and south dallas fair park are standing here today Beginning march 1st warren umc Entered a test phase of partnership with the zip code connection This effort is aimed at encouraging and resourcing warren As we live into our call to be a ministry hub In other words be the church at the corner of mouth of mechs and mlk boulevards in south dallas And in keeping with our original goal for the zip code connection We are developing clear ways for local churches and individuals to be a part of the work that residents direct And ways to extrovert our learnings all around the conference in the meantime If you would like to connect with the work in either area or if you would just like to learn how You could explore similar efforts where you are in your own community and neighborhoods Please contact us at the center for missional outreach We're glad to preach and present Facilitate a learning group or just talk about your ideas and hopes for your church and community And now I want to welcome the newest member of the center from the missional outreach team Well, good morning. I'm jareda williams And I am the new face at the conference staff as an associate director for the center for missional outreach I am so excited to be a part of this center It exists to come alongside local churches and making disciples through ministry with their neighbors, particularly the poor With that being said, did you know That students not reading On his or her grade level by the third grade is four times less likely to graduate high school on time And six times less likely if they're from lower income families But one child plus one mentor plus one church plus one community can change at a time It can make a difference in 2015 bishop mckay and the cmo cast the vision focusing on one on one mentoring through church school Partnerships the initiative is one plus one and this year We are breathing new life into this initiative and i'm excited about it A key partner in our work will be first ufc dallas This partnership is with jj rose with first dallas and in an elementary school in dallas and south dallas fair park Or over four years in that time this partnership Which began with one-on-one mentoring has grown to include a wide range of ministries including feeling backpacks for weekend nourishment for students Adopting teachers and staff and showering them with encouragement year-round and even provided by six bicycles at attendance For attendance incentives Will you watch this video with me to hear leaders from first dallas talk about their one plus one experience? It's the new associate director of the center for missional outreach I just see that god is using one plus one in a way that allows us to enter into schools for the power of discipleship and for the power of Being in relationship in our communities and so every opportunity to serve every opportunity to Be in partnership with our communities Um lies in the public school children love Quality attention and they love when you care Like I have kids and everything we watch on tv is about caring and being a team and being friends And so many children grow up in the world and they do not know caring do not know sharing do not know friends They know neglect. They know being Underserved they know what it is to be overlooked. And so when you see these children engage these adults So many questions as to whether or not you should have a partnership get answered and just watch them interact Because so many things that we think are important or are needed for the child It's really not that Deep at all. It's pretty simple. I just need someone here You know the message of the church is to be involved in the world And what is more worldly than a public school? What is more important than a public school? Uh, there are great challenges to public schools and public education Not just in dallas not just in texas, but in our country So churches need to be in public schools because Public schools have huge challenges that volunteers from churches can help me at the end of the day I am really impatient And and I'm always trying to push our congregation to see themselves as I see them I see this congregation and many of our congregations in the north texas conference as a group of people who are called and compelled To share the good news and all they have to do is step outside of their church and do so church school partnerships helps us to move in a new and dramatic way To be Who god is calling us to be? Yes for our church, but more so for the kids around us Good morning. I'm holly bandell the associate minister for mission in aviscusi at first year Methodist church dallas our first hand experience at jj roads learning center in dallas has made a huge impact on students teachers Administrators and also our church family This experience has inspired our church develop a bold initiative that now has the potential to bless Communities and churches all around north texas The initiative is called one plus one dallas and you might find a flyer like this in your welcome bag One plus one dallas is a partnership with first united church dallas Dallas isd through the office of racial equity pastors for texas children the meadows foundation and the center for missional outreach The mission of one plus one dallas is simple. It is to bridge communities of faith With schools to make partnerships that really do make a difference The vision of one doubt one plus one dallas is bold one It's for every school in dallas isd to have a thriving faith community partnership in the next five years Jason lewis is our newly hired executive director and you met him. He was introduced yesterday here at annual conference His role is to fold it's to connect communities of faith with disd schools and To share the best practices for faith community school partnerships based on what we are learning In the field of dallas with communities and churches all across the north texas conference We want to invite you to be a part of this initiative We are having a launch launch on august 30th And hope you will um rsvp to come dr. Michael henehosa From dallas isd the superintendent will be with us We are grateful to bishops mckay and the leaders of north texas for the vision of one plus one And we are passionate and excited to live this out in a new way Through one plus one dallas. We hope you will join us So this fall jason and i will love to come To visit your church so that we can present and preach the theology of your missions through one plus one So that we can have every school in your community have a thriving church school partnership This could be bigger though than your church in school This could be bigger than What your church can do alone So imagine with me what would it be like for every school in your community to have a thriving church school partnership Our hope in the cmo is to multiply the vision of one plus one dallas. So come on imagine with me again Imagine with me a one plus one prosper a one plus one dallas a one plus one wichita falls a one plus one So for springs dream with me About the united methodist church being the engine that drives church school partnerships for every public school in our communities Let's allow the spirit of christ to open up new ways to improve our schools and to see and get to know new faces Through new spaces and one plus one This fall the cmo will be piloting three one plus one cohorts one urban one rural and one suburban limited space Jason and i will be involved in these cohorts and they are designed to create intentional spaces For pastoral and missional leaders to begin or deepen or strengthen or expand your church school partnerships We want to lean into this bold vision of one plus one So if you are interested in learning more contact me using the information on the slide or take out your phone right now You can do that and you can text the keyword one plus one to six six eight six six and then it'll give me your information One child plus one adult One church plus one school equals to change lives one community at a time What better way to connect with families in our communities who may have no connection to jesus or to the church? You know the nuns and the duns What better way to listen well in hopes of building new relationships and possibly gathering new faces and new spaces in educational justice Then through our schools every opportunity lies there in order for us to make a difference I know there are a few pioneers ready to make that leap As a conference we are embracing a call to cultivate relationships with new people Who have little or no connection with our churches This pioneering work calls for leaders both lay and clergy who feel called by god To gather around them people who are uncomfortable or unfamiliar with our traditional churches These innovative pioneers are compelled to create new highly contextual expressions of christian community They tend to be people who are naturally connected with people outside of the church context Pioneers tend to be natural entrepreneur entrepreneurs who like to start things like meet-up groups neighborhood grillouts lemonade stands bible studies and mission initiatives They imagine what could be and are willing to give it a go Pioneers tend to be action oriented They don't want to just talk about stuff forever They want to get out there and try stuff They have a low tolerance for the status quo and are itching to have an impact To do something that moves the mission of god forward Pioneers tend to be comfortable with risk They don't have to have all the answers before they try something They're fine with experimenting and they see failure as a necessary part of learning and moving forward Pioneers tend to be idea people They're busy dreaming up what doesn't yet exist These creatives may drive some of us crazy because they always have something new up their sleeves We believe many if not most of these pioneers will be lay persons who are identified Cultivated and equipped in ways we are just beginning to discover We will need a broad and healthy ecosystem for leadership development in the north texas conference Let's take a look An ecosystem is a biological community of interacting organisms and their physical environment Keeping the whole system healthy requires the health of all the parts in balance Whether it is a starfish a wolf a plant or an elephant an ecosystem may experience a dramatic shift if a species is missing A healthy leadership development ecosystem for the north texas conference Equips leaders for both traditional spaces in our inherited churches and pioneering spaces that can happen anywhere Our ecosystem begins with our youngest we reach young current and future leaders through our westland formation Initiatives from these environments of westland formation. We begin to identify leaders We develop these leaders through youth academies national conferences Internship opportunities and leadership roles as leaders emerge They also nurture and develop future leaders if something is missing in the ecosystem Then the whole environment suffers when the ecosystem is healthy It produces pioneers who are called by god natural connectors and entrepreneurs Action oriented risk-taking Idea people as well as encouragers and permission givers through all our work We encounter people discerning their purpose for some this will be about how to embody christian values in their professional and personal life And for some it means a cause professional ministry and possibly even ordination For all of us a healthy ecosystem means each of us using our gifts in our communities to give witness to the gospel And to participate in the transforming work god is already doing when the system is healthy We are able to cultivate young and culturally diverse leaders who can reach the mission field connecting with new faces in new spaces I'm excited about the many opportunities for spiritual growth Community and leadership that are nurturing our children and youth and their leaders in the north texas conference A time for children is a program designed by reverend doctor leon hadley and taken on by the Children's ministry pioneers behind me and offered to all of those who lead children's ministries in our north texas churches We believe that children are inherently spiritual However, children's curriculum is not always designed to engage with that depth A time for children helps equip our children's ministry leaders to cultivate an environment where our children can develop their innate capacity To listen for god's presence We believe god is speaking to and through our children just like god is speaking to each and every one of us here So far we have had 30 churches in our time for children three-year cohort model of learning Those who have completed this program are now training others and we are seeing a life giving community forming The commitment and consistency among our children's ministry workers in a time for children Has led to an environment of spiritual transformation in their classrooms their programs and their camps Over the last three years, we have learned a great deal about this discipleship model and now have children That are rolling up into youth We want to make sure that as children move into our youth programs Their leaders can continue to nurture the spiritual language and practices learned beyond fifth grade This fall, we will be starting a time for youth intentionally adapting the model for youth in an older context Along with these offerings for youth and children's leaders. We're also excited about an intentional program For a youth to serve in leadership This summer we will be piloting a new youth leadership program That's designed to give young people real opportunities to serve and lead at bridgeport summer camp These youth will be trained to help lead small groups and reflect on their leadership experiences on a daily basis We are also hoping hoping to partner with churches that these young leaders attend and encourage their pastors and youth leaders To continue to give them opportunities to practice the skills that they're learning In this way, we hope that this new youth leadership program will have an impact not just on our camps But on our churches as well These programs are forming our youngest disciples Some of whom will be the pioneers and planters of tomorrow Thanks to your vote yesterday. Our center has a new name. We are now the center for church development the ccd In past years, we thought of church planting being relegated to a few of our larger churches That is changing Amen In the ccd in the center of church development, we are committed to working with all types of churches and developing new ways of doing church Now new spaces is not what we traditionally think of as church plants They're not necessarily designed to grow up into worshiping communities or even designed to funnel people into existing churches New spaces is a new way of doing church a new way of planting churches Now this does not mean we're abandoning the traditional way of planting church or planting traditional churches Just this past january the center for church development hired a church planter And a consultant to be the associate director for church planting in our center and I introduced you matt temple Thanks Everyone's still awake. We're all We're all still here smack yourself around a little bit It's been a privilege to travel around the conference and meet several of you over the past few months And I look forward to moving forward getting to know so many more of you as we talk about Ecosystems and developing leaders And pioneers in our conference One of the things the church the center for church development identified over the past several months Was our own need to reevaluate and reimagine our process For supporting church planters through each unique stage of a church plan So to do this we organized a team made up of planters from within the conference And our first task was to look at church plants through the lens of human development And try to discern what are the unique stages of development that a church plant goes through And then from there we were able to ask the question what specific and timely support Can we give to planters in each stage of the development? Out of that question our planting support system is beginning to emerge and at the center of it is a 12 month cohort designed to Make space for creativity and innovation A space where planters can walk through a process of discernment While ultimately clarifying their vision for starting a new faith community We're calling it the genesis cohort and it starts july 1st And we have approximately 20 people at various stages of the church plant process Who are going to participate in the cohort with us? We wanted you to meet a few of them so uh this afternoon I've asked a few of our planters that are entering the launch stage of their plant to introduce themselves Good afternoon My name is Ricky Harrison and I have been serving this past year planning a new faith community called the con street mission Anchored out a first united Methodist church indicator Good afternoon My name is carlo Ramirez and i'm very thankful to have this opportunity to plan second campus of castelinda In the southeast delas area near mesquite Which is in spanish and is castelinda at plazaman church. Thank you. My name is chris melvin. I am The lead pastor now The umbrella of first united Methodist church mckinney of harvest united Methodist church and a community called trinity falls in northwest mckinney Hello, my name is josh as far as I'm going to be the campus pastor at owenwood I was just connected with white rocky nine Methodist church in east dallas and so owenwood We will be partnering with people to help resource our neighbors as well as creating opportunities for new faces To engage spiritually in the liturgy as well in the sacredness Of one another through the sharing of a meal during our worship services. Thank you Hello, i'm idalia luna and i'm so thankful to god that I will be planting at beautiful church Chapel Hill at farmers branch Hello, my name is taylor smith. I have been commissioned to start a new church in uptown dallas um at this time I'd like to invite the ushers forward to take a uh love offering I want to think about it now give me a call i'll take you out to lunch and uh, we'll we'll Get you in the process The ccd is supporting our planters as well as other pastors and leaders throughout the conference with cohorts But also with coaches who come us who come alongside our leaders to help them develop and execute their vision So I invite you to take a couple minutes and watch this video That captures some of the brilliant work being done by coaches in our conference If I just be part of the program And have a coach and so I join the program I think in the fall and so every month my coach calls and we chat for an hour and I set the agenda and unfortunately he takes notes And so he refers back to and last time we talked about it And so it's just been a wonderful experience for me the experience. It was We became like friends, you know, so as she got to know me and And But it wasn't like something that she would ask, you know, that Are easy questions Um as time progressed it got She was asking difficult questions tough questions you know for me was There was a point where I was kind of choosing between Being a father and being a youth minister And so she asked me One of the tough questions was would you be able to do this, um, you know balance both being a father and being in the ministry and It was a difficult question, you know, because I was able to find ways to balance it I think one of the biggest benefits to my ministry through this Initiative has been really focusing in and wanting to asking the right questions And those questions helped me dive deeper into what's really going on in the church and in my particular context They helped me not just kind of skim through the surface And when I get to something that Maybe needs more attention or some sort of change It helps me not see quick fixes, but really to ask those deep probing questions and Ed Lynn's guidance and coaching has helped me to hone those questions But also has given me the courage and the confidence to find the resources I need to address them And to really continue to dig deep into them to make some lasting change I want people to intentionally live into their full potential in God's calling on their life As an advanced leadership coach we use techniques that promote transformational leadership such as being present listening deeply asking powerful questions Expanding possibilities and action planning and accountability Standing on stage with me are just some of our trained leadership coaches As of today the north texas conference has 20 coaches who have received 60 hours of international coaching federation approved executive leadership coach training This past year our 11 initial coaches were utilized by 45 clergy and lay staff across the conference We know that 70 percent of leadership development comes from experience Which can be leveraged another 25 20 percent by utilizing a coach or a mentor Given our complex and fast changing world our leaders, especially our pioneers need support Coaching helps leaders become agile learners And adaptive leaders who are able to learn from their experiences and apply those lessons to future challenges In coaching the bulk of the instruction does not come from the coach The coach is not a teacher or an expert necessarily Instead a coach helps to mine the expertise and internal wisdom of the leader of the coach Coaching helps provide accountability and forward action for goals defined by the person that is being coached And then in group coaching participants learn from their peers and apply the learning in their own context this coach approach process Helps leaders both clergy and laymen Dissern the god-sized things that need to happen to develop a plan to get there and then to celebrate when they do In the coming year our advanced leadership coaching initiative will deploy these 20 trained coaches To approximately 100 clergy and laity staff and lay leadership across north texas Leadership cohorts will engage groups of clergy and laity through the artful academy for artful leadership Coaching will be a key component for our pioneers and planters As well as for our youth and our children's ministers going through a time for children and a time for youth For more information on how to access our coaching resource and these programs, please check out our conference website As you have heard coaching is being utilized by all of our centers Let's give the center for leadership development a hand for leading this initiative I myself am a certified coach and have participated in the coach trainings that have been led by the center for leadership development As coaches we believe that each individual is creative resourceful and whole At its heart Coaching is journeying with another person in a way that is highly relational deeply intentional And it is always always contextual Enjoy this bci video United Methodist churches are struggling across the nation Particularly black united Methodist churches. Many are closing and not many are opening. So We have the purpose for the north texas conference black church initiative Is to help the churches pastors and laity working together To know what it means to go ahead and make disciples of jesus christ for the transformation of the world and to Have as their focus the great commission The black church initiative of the north texas conference has already shaped my ministry Just working with the great leadership that is over And helping me as a young pastor to strengthen my leadership skills to strengthen my stewardship skills And impacting the village where I currently serve as the pastor and helping us to really see a model for getting out into the community Where lives are needing to hear the gospel of jesus christ Well, you know what's so exciting is It actually has given us an opportunity to bring to the fore new leaders and the business that we've we've been looking at studying And so the leadership team Within the black church initiative at st. paul individuals who have not held leadership positions, but people diverse group of folk Millennials gen Xers and baby boomers representing represented in that That leadership team and so that's what really is exciting locally bci Has the potential to turn the north texas conference upside down with positive productive churches The plan as I understand it is to strengthen hamilton park st paul and st lucke first and then we have to turn around and strengthen others It makes a lot of sense to me and I know we can do it Well, bci, I would just pray that it would continue so now we can help st lucke and help the black church to be a Violent place where people can experience health hope and healing. I believe bci would be critical And help the black church move forward to a preferred future. I'm excited about bci Somebody needs to say amen We the design team Of black church initiative of the north texas conference and the pastors and vanty of those churches are thankful To bisha bucky's vision to strengthen our black churches for the north texas conference and we now have hope We are partnering with the national organization 2020 leadership to strengthen our pastorial leadership teams And they will work hand in hand with their laity to develop their own intentional discipleship making program that will in turn grow our churches Secondly our center for church development has partnered with dr. Alice mckenzie of the perkins school of theology In the center for preaching excellence. We have selected a cohort of pastors and those pastors are with me The cohort pastors. We'll stand forward Come forward and they'll see who you are. They saw you on the video, but just call them out We will be working with reverend dr. Kevin Miriam Who is the lead pastor of the cascade united methodist church in atlanta The leader of one of the largest black united methodist churches in our nation And myself as a shepherd for this group will focus on preaching excellence In our black churches. It's a way of saying iron sharpens iron If you know anything about the black churches Preaching excellence must be in place for the churches to grow somebody just say amen And thirdly, we are also formed a cohort of our young african-american pastors who strengthen their gifts and skills and leadership church growth and preaching This group for most of this year has been made up of all men Last month we identified a young woman From the village named melissa who has had the opportunity to practice and perfect her preaching Craft because her pastor reverend Derek Jacobs has given her the opportunity to preach many times. We're thankful for that. I'm excited about melissa And I love hearing her preach. So thank you All of this work is being done with our pastors in cohorts using coaches that are Content rich and what it means to be the black church If we didn't have coaches that are content rich And what it means to black to be the black church who just have theory and theory for the sake of theory It's time out for those days. It's time for us to be about our father's business. Amen I want to thank the members of the design team standing with me here today. I can't see them all but If each one you can just come up and say your name as the church planters yet I'm dr. Mike bullie senior pastor of st. Luke community united methods church I'm dr. Weedley past of united methods church of the disciple and the soda of texas and she is the chair of our design team My name is edlin cowlin the senior minister at fellowship united methods church and trophy club Reverend Preston wheeler executive pastor st. Paul united methods church Dallas I am baby hutchins st. Luke community united methods church. I am lisa cooper camp wisdom united methods Hello, i'm may frances rallitt st. Luke community united methods church James liner, uh, senior pastor glenn oak sent up camp wisdom churches christen for orally the associate pastor of hamilton park united methods church We're looking forward to what god will do in the black churches of the north texas conference And we believe as our black churches are strengthened The entire north texas conference will be strengthened for god's glory somebody need to say amen So as you may have noticed all of our centers are using coaching all of our centers are using cohorts This is intentional because ministry is hard Ministry can be lonely And you are hearing us ask you To move into new spaces To experiment To risk And to even allow space for failure Ministry can be hard And so we are designing cohorts that are going to be communities of practice similar to the original methodist bands and classes That's communities that can help us mine the wisdom experience and support of our colleagues Foundational to our cohorts is the idea that each one of us brings gifts that are resourceful for the whole Stated plainly we are better together Since starting as the director of the ccd last july I have been in over 115 of our north texas conference churches And what I have discovered is that gathering new faces and new spaces is not just a new program we need It is a new strategy It is a new way of being the church Using the terminology of isaac It is the new thing that we perceive god doing And it is springing forth The district superintendents the center directors We're aligning our work Around gathering new faces and new spaces through our local churches and united methodist entities And we are prepared to put our resources behind this for the long haul So here are the next steps This summer we will host three conference calls And anyone anyone in this room anyone in your church is welcome to jump in In the first half of this call you'll have the opportunity to share your initial ideas About how to gather new faces and new spaces Everyone will be able to listen in and be inspired and to gather up new ideas In the second half of the call we'll focus on one or two of those ideas and offer real-time coaching to help you move forward Then in the fall we plan to offer three vision days The goal for these vision days is to give clergy and laity Everything you need to begin dreaming and scheming about the new spaces god is calling you to create At these vision days, we will cast the vision once more of new spaces We'll tell stories about how laity and clergy are creating new spaces across north texas and around the country And then we will describe in detail what the centers will bring to the table to support you in this work And support is the key word First we plan to gather the pioneers the innovators and learning cohorts Where you will receive ongoing coaches the latest learning this about new spaces You will receive support and encouragement from peers The other form of support Is we are prepared to put money behind it That amen The district superintendents the center directors. We have already set aside $200,000 to get us started over the next two years to support new spaces in Gathering new faces in new spaces These will be micro grants that will range in size from $500 to several thousand dollars with the idea of Catalyzing your ideas catalyzing your work But we want to be clear Do not think that you need conference staff or conference support To start a new space We do not want to be a bureaucracy that hinders your work We want you to be set free to do ministry The last thing we want to do is get in your way So if you have a vision if the lord is stirring in your heart Or you know those in your church who god is moving in their lives They are those pioneers of which marty spoke Do not wait on us Get started Go be the church But if you see value and how we can support you Through coaching through being part of a cohort Or through a micro grant We ask you to submit a new spaces application and you'll find the link right up there on the screen One last next step is finally in early 2019. We will lead our first pioneers retreat This weekend retreat will gather together again clergy and lay pioneers to prepare them to launch their new spaces Now we know that gathering new faces and new spaces may sound like something new Maybe daunting Maybe some of you have felt the nudging of the holy spirit and you are experiencing discernment by nausea at this very moment But we believe that god is calling the north texas conference to do this kind of pioneering work And we believe that because god has called us god will equip us for this work We believe that there are pioneers with gifts for creating new spaces In every local church just waiting to be inspired and unleashed We believe that those who like their church as it is Can still wholeheartedly support those pioneers and innovators by giving them cover And by supporting the new thing that they are doing We believe that as we experiment with new spaces Inevitably we will fail here and there but we can choose to not be afraid of failure and instead to learn from it We believe that people in our mission field are trying to find meaning and create community We believe that the church is still relevant and needed in today's world We believe that god will equip us to gather new faces in new spaces We believe that god is moving And it is springing forth From wichita falls to trinity falls from mount vernon to mount calvary From sherman to kaufman from roy city to archer city to the city of dallas From st paul to st andrew to st joe From churches called westley to westley korean to our westley foundations from clark'sville to lewisville to gainesville From christ church fairview from christ plano and farmers branch to christ foundry from glenn oak's to oak lawn to oak haven And north haven every church every church Every church every church gathering new faces in new spaces to form disciples in the way of christ Join us on a conference call this summer come to a vision day in your district share your ideas with us And let's gather new faces and new spaces and introduce them to the god who already knows them and loves them amen