Ynw'r ffordd, ydych yn gwybod eich ysgol, o'ch rhaid i'n ffawr ar y mae'r hwn. A'n meddwl i'r gweithio y taith gyda'r bwrdd mhwn o'r ffawr. A'r gweithio'r bwysig i gyd, am dweud i chi gyd o'r ffordd mewn hwn. Mae'r prydd wedi rhoi wneud yn gweithio'r rhagorau. Felly mae'r gwneud yn ddechrau. A'r ddweud i chi'n gweithio'r ddweud i chi'n gweithio'r bwysig i'n gweithio'r gweithio'r hwn. Y F punchahol yn ddechrau o'r perthyn nhw i yw. Felly mae'n fynd yn ysgoliaeth o'r Llyfriddau Pwyloedd yn Llefodol Llyfriddahol Cymru ac yn Ysgoladau OK. Felly dwi'n ddod o'i cyfnod o'u ran o'r cyfle. Felly, mae'n rhai gwnaeth i eisiau sicrhau allan rydym fan hynny a'r gynllun sy'n sgoliaeth i oses yn ymddangos y ffin. Emanuel, doedd eich cyfle yw'r ffynu? Yn rhaid, dwi'ch ei gallu bod erwled i'r eileisio deall yn gyfrifoedd. Mae'r ysgrifennu pam ymgyrch yn unig.. Rwy'n eu ddweud o amlwg o'r deimlo'r cyfrifau, roedd yn mynd i gael i blygu'r oed. Mae'n rhaid, yn ei ddod yn gweithio, yn gweithio pan o'r Cloesi Arfan yn wrtho, ac y frans, rwy'n cofodol, er fryd yn gweithio a 42%, ac mae oedd 50% yma rwy'n iawn ar y ddechrau, ac mae oedd yn hytrach yn y cyfrifonau ar y ddechrau, ac mae yw'n amlwg yn enw, mae'n ddod, mae'n wneud yn ei ddweud, mae oedd yn 50% ar y ddechrau, Ond o'r gweithio, y cyfrifonau ar y gweithio ar y ddechrau, mae'n ei ddweud, yn y gyfrifonau ar y ddechrau, I was interesting because yesterday the LSE published an article by Derek Beach who analysed the European elections in Denmark from 2014 and his analysis showed that two things. If you have education of citizens on European issues and if you have media coverage of transnational issues of European issues then citizens engage on European issues. Maybe yesterday shows this little fluttering of citizens engaging with European issues through this green surge. We haven't had the populist surge. The populists are at 22%. Professor Casnudur, who studies extreme right-wing parties and populism nationalism, keeps saying there's no surge of populists across the EU. There are 20%, there are coalition parties at best or they are in the opposition but there's no, despite all the fears of Marine Le Pen winning the presidential election last time, mathematically it was impossible. The same way mathematically this time it was impossible for the populist to win a majority in the European parliament. I think there was media hype over a surge of the populist. The green wave wasn't anticipated but obviously we had the greens culturally won the cultural battle here with Greta Thunberg, with extinction rebellion, with different movements like that that in the last 12 months have set the agenda. The curse of the greens though is that, and I've seen it in France far too often, is that their manifestos or their programs are cannibalised by other parties that then green their own programs. Once I was interesting yesterday when you were listening to Lambert's from the Green Party, the European Green Party saying no no European citizens prefer the original to the copy, let's see. But yes, I think there's maybe an indication that European citizens are mobilising and obviously your environment is an idea par excellence, it's a European issue. We've moved away from the economic crisis, the agenda is now on climate change, climate protection and the greens have therefore done extremely well. Whereas we were discussing earlier, you have green deserts nonetheless in those elections, so northern and western Europe have voted for the greens, but the eastern southern Europe haven't. So that's also something to note. Ultimately I think the king makers will be Aldi and or the greens depending on the configurations, but I think we'll discuss then of the possible configurations of what a majority would look like. But my big positive point is that citizens have engaged, I think the fragmentation is good actually, it was interesting to hear Margaret Firstagge, who's obviously in the business of breaking monopolies, being very delighted with the result yesterday. And obviously Aldi, with the Amash troops joining the Aldi group and I think calling themselves when they saw so, will be the group to watch. I think that's a very good summary. I think maybe from an Irish point of view, I would start by saying how much I appreciate Marian Harkins contribution as an MEP, a really excellent MEP on behalf of Ireland and the northwest for the last 15 years. And you will be a huge loss. So I want to say that as we start to talk about the wider issues. I think a number of things. Certainly the extreme left and right populist, Eurosceptic movement is not as dramatic as was anticipated. And that's partly because of trends which we can sort of talk through and they are somewhat different in different member states and different countries. But I think probably, you know, there is always an interest from a media perspective in exaggerating the rise of Euroscepticism and populism. So I think, you know, it was probably overstated for that reason too. Obviously, the green wave has arrived in Ireland, not to the extent that was suggested by exit polls on Friday, but still significant. Significant here and significant in Germany, France and a number of other countries. Even the UK, where the greens I think have pulled the conservative party, which is quite an extraordinary outcome. And obviously there are major implications from a Brexit point of view, which we can talk about a bit in a while. I actually agree though with the overall point which Emmanuel makes, which is that it's probably not a bad thing that the sort of carving up of the power base at European level, which for as long as I can recall has been dominated by the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats Conservatives, the S&D and the EPP. And I say that as somebody who is obviously, I'm a former vice president of the EPP. I've been very involved with the EPP for many years and I'm clearly a political supporter of the EPP. But I actually don't believe that it's good for Europe that the EPP, in the last five years for example, held the Presidency of the Commission, the Presidency of the Parliament, the Presidency of the Council. And I think it is important that there is a broader, more reflective representation in the key positions in the EU. Interestingly, and I think it would be of significant interest to a lot of people in this country, for the first time we're going to see a political appointment to the head of the European Central Bank. So not only when you have the kind of three key institutional positions plus the, for want of a better word, foreign affairs leader, in other words, the head of the title of the... That's what I'm thinking of, the title. Or she said... High representatives. High representatives, exactly. It's become so irrelevant, I've forgotten the actual name of the robe. But for the first time you're also going to have the President of the European Central Bank included in that, which is a concern I think. I don't think that the ECB President should be a part of these negotiations, but it's inevitable now that that will be the case. And I think that that makes us interesting as well, because there will be a big battle over that particular road from a German point of view, and that will have implications then in terms of the leadership of the other institutions. We've come to that again. Marion, what do you think? Well again, good morning everybody. I think we've had an excellent summary. I don't really want to go over the same ground again. At 111, can I see Aldi on 101 seats? I think I'll let them just stay for the five years. Because when I went there first, Aldi was the kingmaker for those five years to a large extent. However we voted made a difference in the Parliament, less so the second time out and not really at all the last term. Of course that's well and Aldi will be fuelled by Billy Den's. So we're not quite sure how long they're going to stay either. But we certainly have a Parliament with a different complexion. I agree with Lucinda. It's time that, as Pat Cox spoke of it last night, that duopoly is broken. And that while he himself, I think is perhaps the only person to break it by becoming president of the Parliament as president of the Liberals. Other than that, it's been either EPP or the Socialists. And the fact that they are now not just less than 50, but perhaps less than somewhere between 40 and 45, I don't have final numbers of seats while we can't have yet. But it's substantially less than before. So as you'd say, it may be with Aldi, it may be with Aldi and Greens, I wouldn't be surprised, but that would be the case. Interesting that for now it is, even though you can't really be sure about groupings, and you can't also be sure about how cohesive and coherent there will be, especially six months down the line. But given where we are now, it looks like Salvini, who had hoped to be maybe in third place, is probably in fourth, if not maybe even fifth, because I think the Greens are just one ahead of him for now. So at different Parliament. I'm interested in what you said about citizens engaging. I would love to see the demographics of, you know, we went from 43 to 50. I'd love to see if we could see the demographics of devotion. If I had to guess, I would be inclined to think that maybe more young people voted or younger. Everybody is young to me now, but that's what we see there. Though, of course, it won't be that clear cut. But equally, if you listen, for example, to Min Boylan last night, when she was asked what were people talking about on the doorsteps, housing. So while citizens are engaged having canvassed in four European elections and canvassed a bit this time with some independent councillors, you know, it's national issues by and large that come up on the doorsteps. So the other thing I suppose I would say is that you were talking about the Greens and cannibalising their policy. I think if you look at Ireland, that the exit polls have overestimated green support. We see that now with Cairn Cough. I think Sir Syrwyth Gwyl will do very well. I think she will struggle, though, to take that fourth seat. But it's still not absolutely sure, but from looking at Tally's, and especially we did some Tally's of number twos yesterday, I think she will struggle to get elected. And, you know, we forget maybe that one time we had two Greens here. And I think this time we may just have one. I'm not sure that Grace will solve it. I haven't followed Monster. She may have to wait for a seat, if at all. So it's not, as I said last night, it's not a tsunami. It's a wave and it's not everywhere. So finally, I suppose the big jobs are in Ireland, who's going to... We'll come to that again. We'll come to that because that's the time, because I think that's really interesting. Now a fragmented parliament. What are the potential alliances? It's not as easy. Marine, having been knowing this parliament better than anybody else in the room, I guess. How do you see it at various alliances? How is it going to work? Is it going to work? Well, I mean, they will have to make it work. Last time out we had EPP and socialists, but a lot of the time it didn't work if you look at how the parliament voted, and especially as time went on. I mean, certainly 12 months out from an election, we saw the socialists move further to the left because they were trying to make up the ground, but they knew they were going to lose. And of course they did lose in the elections. They were moving further and further towards Gwy. It didn't really do them any good or Gwy any good at the end of the day in the sense of trying to increase seats because they lost seats, but as to who will work with whom. For example, in Aldi, we still don't know who will be leading the group. There's every good reason to think they won't be gave or hosted. So, and I think the fact that Tusk is in a preemptive move to have a council meeting to forestall what the parliament might do in the context of the big jobs is interesting as well. So, at the end of the day, what did they say about politics? It's the art of the possible and it all comes down to numbers and they will find ways of cooperating. Greens, I'm not sure about. I remember in my first term there that people would say time and time again, you cannot rely on them when it comes to, they'll negotiate, they'll negotiate, they'll almost agree and they've gone. I didn't find that the last time, but I'm not sure how it would be this time. And who's going to lead the Greens? Well, currently they have obviously Philip Lambert. I spoke to Philip Lambert about maybe six weeks ago and I had a distinct impression from him that the Greens are prepared to do business, but on one condition, that Manfred Weber will not be president of the European Commission. I don't think he will either. Although there is still a strong belief in the EPP that he will be, but I think the trade-off will be connected to the ECB. So a German president of the ECB will make way for a different leader of the Commission. Still I expect EPP, but I think it's more likely to be Michel Barnier. Certainly I think the Greens will support Barnier and they are prepared to support Barnier. I think he can be acceptable to Alde too, particularly if the French president supports him. And his son cleverly was a candidate for the Alde group, so the broad alliance. I don't know how he has termed the three different elements to the Alde arrangement, but so I can see something happening there. But interesting, Marion talking about the Council trying to take the lead and organising the informal dinner tomorrow night at the heads of state and government, but Weber has actually arranged a meeting for the leaders of all of the key groups in the European Parliament in advance of that. So he is trying to move ahead and get the Parliament to agree to sort of back the Spits and Candidates option, which theoretically is fine except for the fact that nobody really wants him to be the Spits and Candidates. I think that causes a problem. You can see the Parliament for example that the leaders of the main political groups not agreeing on a person or an individual, but saying, you know, as Lisbon Treaty requires, that the outcome of the European elections will be reflected without specifying exactly what that means. Just getting legislation through, what do you think? Can I just say something? Just on the Spits and Candidate, the European Parliament, every European election, the European Parliament tries to flex its muscles and create institutional space and legitimacy and et cetera. The Spits and Candidate is pretty vital for them and I totally agree with Lucinda that Weber yesterday in his speech during the live election speeches clearly said like, you know, he announced his meeting with all the other heads and he defended the Spits and Candidate system which obviously isn't stated out in the treaties. It's a political agreement, right? So we have a precedent and institutionally for the European Parliament it's very important to defend that because right then nobody wants really Weber to take that job so there's a kind of small politics and big political issue at the same time or institutional issue. But I think for the European Parliament it's vital to again defend this Spits and Candidate. So we'll see whether the small politicking takes over from the big institutional issue. I still think even though there are lots of different views that even academically on it that the Spits and Candidate is, going back on the Spits and Candidate is a step backwards in terms of linking people's vote to appointing the head of the European executive. So if we return to heads of seat and government deciding on this I just think it's kind of cutting off the link between our vote as citizens and the head of the executive. The counterargument to that. I'm a big believer in the European Parliament and the importance and strength of the European Parliament which has dramatically increased in the last ten years. But the Spits and Candidate phenomenon A is not mandated by any of the treaties. It is completely made up concept. And it doesn't, there's a very strong argument to say it doesn't reflect, it's the exact same as what's trading in the council. It just involves the other institutions. But actually there is no mandate. It's not a direct election. The people of, the voters, how many Irish voters have any idea who Manfred Weber is. They actually know Barnier. And they put down number one opposite Marie Walsh's land. Exactly. They weren't thinking about Manfred Weber, that's for sure. Exactly. But I agree about that. But that's an education issue then. I'm going back to my first point of Derek Beech. But Derek Beech makes it in his article that it's part of our job then to educate citizens on how institutions work. Largely, it's involving them in the process which they're not currently. I agree with that. And it's one of the things that I certainly tried in my 15 years between groups and schools and et cetera. But my experience for what it's worth is that people are interested in what interests themselves. So can I get, you know, can I go into a room full of ordinary people and interest them in the spits in Canada? It is very difficult. But what I have discovered, whether I'm right or wrong is that if you have a group of people from the credit unions, you can very much interest them in the legislation that's going to impact on, you know, the financial legislation. The same with, well, we know it's true with farms, but the same with different groups of people. But remember, a lot of people didn't even know who their MEPs were. And we don't have a list system. Can you imagine in countries where there is a list system? It is extremely difficult. I'm not saying it shouldn't be done, but it's very, very difficult. And I think those of us in politics, either as a profession or, you know, those who study politics, probably most people in this room, we live in a bubble a lot of the time. And we just forget sometimes that the people out there have to get on with their lives and that they're really interested in something that impacts on them today or tomorrow. Climate change probably being the exception. Kate, you talked a bit about the possible people who might fill these jobs. There are four jobs that we can't afford middle-aged men. Can we? That's the other point. Is that a factor? It is absolutely a factor. And not only in the top jobs, but I think there will be a huge drive in the European Commission to have as close to 50-50 gender balance amongst the 28, 27 commissioners. And I would be surprised if we don't have, we'll say between the three institutional leaders plus the foreign policy lead. I expect that it'll be 50-50, so you will have, I would hazard a guess, we'll have a male president of the commission, but we could end up with a female president of the council and a possibility of a female president in the European Parliament as well. Let's see, I mean it'll depend on the negotiations but I think there will be a real effort to do that. And certainly within the commission there will be huge pressure, which could cause a challenge actually for the CISUC because everybody has an expectation about the appointment of the new European commissioner, but the only names in the reckoning are men again. And we know from previous discussions, not the last time but certainly the previous time when Fina Foll were in government, there was an absolute sort of non-negotiable demand by President Barroso that the Irish government would appoint a female commissioner, and they did more again in Quinn and she did a very good job, incidentally. I think there would be a lot of pressure on that. And of course one of the issues we'll face there just briefly on that is that Phil Hogan, like him or below him, is perceived to have done a good job as an agricultural commissioner and has really got stuck in and knows his grief and is respected in a way that not all recent commissioners have been. No, and he's a very political character, asserted in the government, so I can say that, for better or for worse, he's deeply political and has made an impact undoubtedly in Brussels and is likely to be a vice president, which is a big priority for the Irish government to have a vice president, which really matters now because it means you have access to the president and you really are a leader in the commission in an institutional way, but there will be big pressure on the Irish government. So I get a sense from you that nobody is rushing out to Paddy Power to put money on Mr Weber, is that it? No, but I would put money on Margaret Firstager, who we haven't mentioned, woman. The vote yesterday obviously is the vote for the Greens, but it's a vote for a social Europe and a change in Europe and Weber, and we heard Timmermans. Timmermans, all he said is, Weber will be the same old Europe as usual. At least if we go with something else, another head will have changed. So there was a bit of a pushback against the EPP yesterday. I felt really we could see a coalition between the left of the spectrum, but they'll need all those votes. But Firstager, I think, is a dark horse and I think she fights for a protective Europe. She'd be acceptable to the Greens, she'd be acceptable to the AS&D. Aldi would love her. Yeah, and Aldi would love her, obviously. Aldi, by deciding, I remember presenting it to my students and I was like, I don't understand why Aldi is presenting this team of seven. Do you remember how they didn't pick Firstager, actually? No. They just, as their Schmitzen candidate, they presented a team and it's what you were saying about all the jobs that were up for grabs with this idea of we're basically presenting a team so that there's an option for every single job that comes up. But Firstager yesterday clearly said, yes, I will be the one, the candidate from Aldi to go for the commission post. So I would have my money on Firstager, quite honestly. I think she'd be a fabulous person of the European Commission, ahead of the commission. On top of, we mentioned how German the European institutions could be. We have obviously also a sect gen of the commission, that's German. We have a sect gen of the European Parliament, that's German. We potentially have Weidmann, ECB, that is the lead candidate. German. When you, I go and do interviews in Brussels, you hear very often, the European institutions are dominated by Germans, and that's a problem with other nationalities obviously. It will be very interesting to see how long the sect gen of the commission lasts. Well, that's it, the way he was appointed. If Firstager becomes president of the commission, I'd say he'll be promoted elsewhere. Okay, I've got to throw it all. Anyone want to get in? Francis. Yeah. Thank you very much for a very insightful presentation, and I'd also like to echo what Lucinda said about Mary, who was great at the interview over the last 15 years. Oh, sorry. And you would know because you were. But I agree with what you say about the Spetsman candidates, the lead candidates, but I do, and I know it's not mandated in the treaties, but it would be a big challenge for the Parliament if they decided to go against it because the Parliament has invested, right? Right to your wrong is so much in it. And I just wonder what, if they do go back, what kind of price the European Parliament might want to exact in offices elsewhere. My other question is on the right because obviously the surge of the populist right wasn't nearly as great as predicted, although they did very well, unfortunately, in places like Belgium and Italy. They did very well and they exterminated five starts. But what is going to happen now in terms of the right within the European Parliament in your view? Obviously, Sarmini wanted a big group on the right. I don't see that happening, but I'd like to know what you think will happen in terms of group composition on the right. Thanks. I think they'll be extraordinarily fragmented. And I suppose we have to bear in mind that the very significant number of pro-Brexit, Eurosceptic right-wing MEPs in the UK will most likely be gone from the 1st of November, so that will diminish the numbers as well. But it's a feature on both the hard left and hard right. We saw it, not even the hard left, the moderate left, you could say, in Ireland, in the European elections in Dublin, where they should have a seat in the European Parliament because Labour, Social Democrats, etc. can't work together. They likely will end up at no seat. And it's the same problem with the far right in Europe. So they have competing interests. Some of them are very pro-Russian. If you move further east, they're completely anti-Russian. And Russia is a threat, even though they seem to have enormous influence from Russian propaganda and disinformation. But they don't seem to make the link. So very hard to see how they will all pull together. And we saw it in the last parliament, in the previous parliament, they start out with the best of intentions, but they just can't get along. Yeah, but of course pulling together in the parliament sometimes means just voting against everything. And for somebody who used to sit slap bang in the middle just the way it happened, and two-thirds of the way down, you get great view of what's going on. You see the screen in front of you, and the number of times that left and right, red, it's incredible. You need to be there to appreciate it. People here wouldn't, obviously. So sometimes that's what works. But the nine or the no is not big enough, even with those two groupings. I haven't looked at the numbers, but because Gwy didn't really increase, the right will, but as you say, once the Brexit, well, if they leave, that will make a difference. And it's to get agreement. Talking about agreement, it's not your question, Frances, but I look at Alty, and I've been there for 15 years, and for the last five, I mean, even on social issues, when we dealt with things like posting of workers, for example. And the only way that was got through the parliament was that we had co-reperters between the EPP and the socialists, and then there was agreement found. But if either EPP or socialists had tried to sphere that through parliament, it wouldn't have happened. And Alty, for example, was split on it. Not totally split, but it was. So when we now break in on Arsh, I can see a few delegations in Alty quite, let's say, economically liberal delegations. And, you know, Festival is one of those that they will struggle to some extent. So there'll be fragmentation. I think you won't see much of it in perhaps in the first year or whatever, but there was, if you were to look at voting records, a bit of fragmentation certainly within Alty. And when it comes to things like trade deals, etc., fragmentation within the socialists also. So I think fragmentation within the groupings last parliament was more evident than for many years. So I don't see that trend reversing. Absolutely. Okay. Anyone else? Yes. Hi. I'm just wondering if you... Maybe just introduce yourself. Yeah. I'm Chris Rysgawd. I'm just wondering if you can comment a bit about election in the local context. So what does election mean for Ireland? So maybe talk about the impact of the votes that we've had on the local government. But also if you see what European issues that are the most prevalent in Ireland, even though you said national issues seem to take forefront in the election. Well, yeah, go ahead. No, not at all. I was going to say I'm not the person to answer that question. You can all answer. You can all answer. They're all cultures and whatever. First of all, you asked about the issues that matter to people or what you hear from people. They tend to be national. The only European issues that you will hear about, and it's not often, well obviously agriculture for anybody who's farming, but beyond that, and that's not a huge group of people though I think it is, but it's not. Beyond that, the very odd person might bring up about the European army because that was something that got a lot of traction. But how many people ever asked me about social issues? I mean, I was astonished, I shouldn't be, but I was, that last term I mentioned the posting of workers. I mean, we go back to our treaties here, to Nice and to Lisbon. The big issue was race to the bottom. That was dealt with in the last parliament. I remember I actually wrote to the trade unions and tried to engage. I mean, did anybody at the end of all of this was there a line in a newspaper? I mean, there was some very significant social legislation put through that term. It wasn't a line in a newspaper about it. So how can people engage with European issues when there's nothing there for them? It's a handful of MEPs going round talking to 15 and 16 year olds in schools and to organisations, as I said, whether they're carers or credit unions or farmers or leader companies or whatever. That's the best way you can get in. So, you know, European issues, it's only what makes the headlines and one of the headlines was the European army. But the other question of national, what I would say is, there are no parallels if you look at Midlands Northwest. Let's say Fina Falls collapsed literally, because there'll be around 10%, I think. Maybe 11, maybe 9, which is shocking, but is that reflected in the local elections? Absolutely not. One has nothing to do with the other, which is building news for Fina Falls, because it's a real quiping from that perspective. So it's the same people who voted for, I think, two-fin-again candidates in Midlands Northwest did not do so when it came to the local elections. So people can discern, and of course, locals are different, because people know their local candidates, and that's really important. So there are no parallels. It's interesting as well on that note that Eamon Ryan was very cautious about how his success in the European elections would transfer for a national election. He knows, like Ryan has highlighted, that there are just two different types of elections. One doesn't transfer to the other, and it's not because you were successful in the European elections that you will be in the national elections. The Greens are possibly a bit unique, because they did well in both elections. I think the local elections, particularly because we're so close to a general election, the local elections are a very important bellwether in terms of what's coming. So I would say from Fina Falls' point of view, they're fairly happy actually with the outcome. They're emerging again as the largest party at local government level. I think Fina Gael are very disappointed, and obviously there's a lot of speculation in the media today. The usual is post-mortem. The Greens can be happy, Labour Party slightly happier than they were, and Sinn Fein an absolutely catastrophic day, and we're likely to see some fallout from that at European level as well. So we will either have an election in September or we'll have an election in spring of next year. It's not far away, and something pretty dramatic will need to happen for the main government party, I think, to try to gain ground and hope to benefit from a tide or a wave caused by the new Taoiseach, et cetera, relatively new. I think we can probably expect a reshuffle even though he sort of ruled it out yesterday, but I think it'll kind of have to happen, especially if the election doesn't happen until next spring. In terms of the European elections, Brexit, of course, is a factor, and I think that reflects in people like Mairead McGinnis doing very well. I think she did a lot of media around Brexit, particularly, sort of Brian Hayes, but obviously he wasn't a candidate, and I think that certainly has served her well, as well as the farming community, et cetera, et cetera. So Brexit is probably a factor, but I do think that people have a sort of liberty in European elections. It's a bit like the presidential election in the sense that you might vote for a candidate like our current incumbent president, like Michael De Higgins, and say you like him, he represents the country well abroad, he delivers a good speech, et cetera, but you probably wouldn't vote in a general election, and I think that that is probably slightly the case in the European election. I thought this European election might be a bit different because of Brexit, I thought people, I thought people would do better, for example, because of the membership of the Aldaid group, I thought somebody like Brendan Smith, he's not the most dynamic candidate, but a very competent minister for agriculture, with a decent profile, but that doesn't seem to have quite materialised, you know, the... But ladies and gentlemen, agriculture, three of the four, three of the MEPs seeking re-election are all on the agriculture in the parliament. I mean, if you were to choose somebody to try and get a sector they could get votes from, Brendan, though he is an extremely competent man, was absolutely the wrong person, because there is little doubt, Morayd will have about one section of the farmers, and Ming more of the other sector. Just one point, it was really interesting yesterday. I don't know if any of you have heard of her, but I've shared a platform with her, Pippa Hackish from the Greens. She won a council seat in Offaly. Now, Offaly, at Kansas there once, is as traditional as it comes, when it comes to party politics. But what did I spot? It was the Sinn Fein seat she took. She didn't take it off the parties. So, while the Greens are doing well at European level, and they are lifting council seats, how much that will translate, apart from Dublin, and maybe Norway, because actually, Seersham acue did very well in Clouder, but apart from that, I'm not sure how far it is. The number on the local election is 5.6%. That's it. That's one in 20, right? So now maybe they could have run more candidates, but it's not... It should get carried away. Everybody was carried away. Yes, sorry. Colin Bergan. I'm just interested in what you take on. It's determined for the European elections, and especially the number of spoils. It's 4% in Dublin. I don't know what it is in the other constituency, but that seems very, very high. Is that a genernaughty about politics in general, Europe, or is it just something much more fundamental than that? Well, just very quickly on that. They say that there were quite a number of blank papers. In Munster. But if you had a paper the length of it, you'd nearly folded up yourself and think, I'm not going to read down through that, etc. And I think quite a lot of spoiled votes in Midlands North West again. I heard that yesterday from the people who were tallying. But when voters spoiled, I've never... I'm not... Do people write abusive comments, or is it just a mistake? It's not one. There won't be that many abusive comments, and you hear about the ones that are there, but you won't hear about the hundreds of blank papers. There will be a proportion of people who will have gone to vote in there, because it's trouble, you've gone to vote, for local. But they look at the Europeans, and they won't know who people are, especially when it's... There was 17 in Midlands North West. I was looking at it myself, and so I can well understand how people will either leave it, or just put down one or two or spoiled votes. I'm talking about... It's not a spoiled vote, but I spoke to the ladies about it before we came up here. The number of people who started the talk, one, two, three, four, is not negligible. And when you are looking for votes, and the person is alphabetically ahead of you on the paper, you will notice them, and it's not inconsequential. So at least people went out to vote. But I think that the numbers running in the European Parliament election probably confused people. What do you think? I think people have different motivations. A lot of people do go out to vote in the local elections for a candidate that they know, and they'll go for that purpose. And then they're handed to two or three other ballot papers, and they're not particularly interested in them. I think Tamara's point is, especially when they're two feet long and they may not know the candidate, there can be just a temptation to just throw it back in the ballot box without filling it out. It's a minority, obviously. It's a small minority, but it's increasing. A part of that is probably a bit of apathy. It was a very dull election campaign across the board. It only got exciting at 10 o'clock on the late, late, old Friday night, frankly, when it looked like there was pretty big news about the Green Party, which made it more exciting. But it has been a very dull campaign at local and European elections. I've been very, very involved in all election campaigns since 2002. Well, since bi-elections probably in 1999. And this is, I would say, probably the most sort of, you know, uninspiring, boring elections of all. One of the reasons I've heard local councillors say or give is that five years ago people were angry. Oh, yeah, absolutely. And you can, I think, even see that, maybe that's counting for the drop in the shouldn't take over. So people are not as angry. And because of that there's not much interest. Yes. There was an awful lot of people who were numbering across two ballot sheets simultaneously. So there was an awful lot of people who were going up to 38 and 39 in terms of preferences. So they were doing one on this ballot, two on the next, three on the first and they were going over and back. So half of those ballots, they don't have to one. We definitely have a task to educate people if that's the case. It's great to get insights like that from people who actually know. So I'll just mention what my colleague would say to Sir Rili from UCC. She's lobbying for an electoral commission to actually educate citizens and you know what I'm like. Yeah, so I've done my pitch for her. No, and she's right. Absolutely. And whether we start in the schools or whatever because maybe it's just some of us are just nerds and you have to be careful with that. You cannot expect that other people share your interests. It's back to your argument about the bubble. We're in the bubble. We know how to vote, but that's everyone. Thanks, Donald. So my two questions would be one. I know you're a public figure. Oh, I'm not. Mark Coleman here, just as a member and fan of the Institute. Two brief questions. One is, Macron had a tremendous enthusiasm and implemented carbon taxes and the result was that large parts of France were paralyzed for successive months. So the first question is, the green wave of millennial enthusiasm is great and very heartwarming to see in terms of climate change, but is any politician going to be brave enough to actually implement the taxation agenda? And then secondly, the parties on the centre left and centre right seem to be quite close in the European Parliament. They seem to be a social democratic consensus around most issues. Is that a good thing in that it's a bulwark against the extremes? Or is it a bad thing in that it might drive people on the left and right to more extreme parties on the fringe? On the carbon tax, I agree and it goes back to the point that in actual fact the Greens achieve 5.6% of the vote over the weekend, not, you know, 70%. And I think a lot of people, I for the first time in at least 10 years gave a very high preference to Ciaran Cuff in the European elections because I think he's competent because I think the Greens are going to be important in the European Parliament etc. I think a lot of people are sort of thinking along those lines the Greens have been forgiven for the period in government between the fall and the financial crisis etc. And you know the economy is doing well we're in a kind of a luxury position now and it's a green agenda. Does that mean that voters embrace carbon tax? I'm not convinced at all, at all, at all, at all. And I'm also not convinced by the way as somebody who's genuinely concerned about climate change etc. that a carbon tax is the solution. So I think there's a huge debate and there's so much academic conflict over that. The Green Party in Ireland is in favour of a carbon tax but that's not to say that everybody who supports a green agenda is in favour of carbon tax. So I think we have to wait and see. I would be personally much more enthusiastic about introducing water chargers and people paying for the water that they use but we saw how that ended up in 2004 and subsequently all of the main political parties ran a mile because they couldn't cope with the controversy and failed to provide leadership frankly so I think we've long way to go before we see carbon tax in this country. The only comment I make there when you mentioned water chargers and carbon tax in the same breath as it were is if you go back to the introduction of water chargers, the gentleman we spoke of earlier it was introduced in such a ham-fisted way that even those who felt water chargers were an adequate way of raising taxation thought absolutely no. So if any government or political party is going to put forward an argument for a carbon tax in my view it needs to be very well researched and they need to be able to have supporting evidence so sorry you go ahead. No and this is a perfect transition for what I was going to say because my call introduced introduced let's say the hike in carbon tax just like that on a country that has seen an increase in taxation over what two decades now that is really fed up with taxation hikes so it was very centralized top down no discussion with local authorities no discussion with trade unions no discussion with citizens' associations no discussion with anyone Jupiter did his thing and that was that so yes then we had the yellow vest crisis but this is exactly what Marien is arguing for which can be translated at European level I did think yesterday when I saw the green wave that Macron was like no no we can't go for carbon taxing but what has happened in France then is the Côte d'Iban national which is a very poor form of the fantastic citizens assembly here but I think where in his latest press conference Macron has developed the idea of the 150 citizens assembly on environment so getting academics, experts to talk to citizens and have this exchange as we've had in the citizens assembly and get citizens involved and this is what we started with by getting citizens associated at the European level with decision making and this is also what Alberto Alimano who is a professor and I should say argues for and I think this is the only way forward for Europe like technocracy is as lethal for the future of Europe as populism so we have to move away from this and associate European citizens and if it's on carbon tax whether it's good or bad but have this kind of citizens assembly or assembly of citizens to contribute a sentence on that and that's your second question at all about the centre left but I've often said when ministers talk about this project or that project I said sometimes you get the impression they put their hand in their own pocket and take out the money and here I got this for you and that the connection between the tax people pay and the services or projects whatever is never there and I think with this one I think the carbon tax and I think it will come if that's not embedded in the idea that this is a specific tax to achieve particular outcomes with the biggest challenge we face in other words it's not going into the black hole of a next checker and I think this this could be a very interesting one I think then people may accept it but it will be a different way of dealing with it Can I mention one thing Janik Jadol yesterday who's the leader of the French Greens now I was watching the French television on my smartphone and then it cut off because of geographical position I'm dying for the single digital market to finally work but anyway but he made his declaration and he's obviously one of the victors being third in the election but he so I'm dying to hear more about it he stated that he would put in place a citizens committee to review EU institutions policies and legislation with regards environmental commitments and every month would actually give a press conference on MEP's performance and I'm dying to hear about this but it might participate with the media coverage the more we cover what EU institutions are doing like you were saying on social policy on environmental policy etc the more we will educate again citizens and get them interested in EU issues There is and I agree there is one small danger there and again looking at the parliament in the last 12-18 months people started to take slightly more positions let's say within the left and within the right within the EPP I'm talking about within the socials because if something is media driven and every month looking at how MEPs are doing that's very much media driven and sometimes it doesn't allow MEPs to be reflective enough about what they're at but you've got to get in there and next month and the month after so everything has its dangers It's a danger of policies I've seen We're coming towards the end Dola Brollkan, I remember the institute Sir Ivor Rogers who as you all know mentioned that the reaction or the response of the European institutions to Brexit was a mixture of complacency and strategic myopia and frankly listening to you that's what I see I suspect that the parties of the centre which everybody is very relaxed about they're going to tack to the extremes they've already started it I mean you can see it in the Christian Democrats CSUs in Germany As regards the impact of Europe on matters that affect people locally I'm very surprised that we're worried about housing but the tax base that the government is currently relying on in other words corporate taxation is going to be eroded whether we like it or not despite everything that's said in the treaties in one form or another by international agreements of which the EU is part of and I'm going to come back to basically the whole question of citizens assemblies which you're all in favour of as far as I can see anyway the question is is how are you going what mechanisms do we now need to ensure the mutual education of the democratic process which is obviously missing it was clearly missing on the water charges issue and it's missing on others I mean look I think your analysis is excellent I agree with a lot of it and the issue of marina alluded to this a while ago the fragmentation within the big political groups is clear so it's we keep hearing about Hungary and the EPP but actually there's a major problem with the social democrats and their Romanian friends and Alde have some dubious members from other member states as well so it's across the three if you like the three main centrist political groups and it hasn't been dealt with or tackled by the leaders because obviously everybody has an eye on the numbers and it is a numbers game in terms of not just the top four or five positions within the institutions but also in terms of the chairs of committees the rapporteurs the key positions on all of the committees really matters numbers matter so they've turned a blind eye and there hasn't been a huge amount of leadership I think from my point of view so closer to own the first and most worrying example of that was in the UK where the rise of UKIP rather than being challenged by effective leadership from moderates within the conservative party was effectively instead embraced and they decided to move their battle on to the territory or the ground of UKIP and that's what we're seeing happening in other member states as well to some extent the flipside of that I suppose is that Brexit has been a bit of a wake up call in terms of turning all of that around politics unfortunately isn't going to change it will always be a numbers game and it's hard to see any simple solutions I don't think there are any citizens assemblies at all actually I think that they're an excuse for governments to do nothing and for parliaments to do less and to abdicate responsibility and say you know the citizens assembly recommended this so I therefore don't have to take a position on it so you end up with everybody just following a kind of a broad inane consensus and actually that plays a part in alienating a huge number of people who maybe don't agree with it and instead of having their say represented in their national parliament or in local government, regional government or the European Parliament they end up not being represented by anybody at all and in fact their voices completely shut down politically and I personally suffered from that not because of a citizens assembly but because of how politicians were afraid to take a position on a controversial issue and I lost my seat as a result of it or at least partly as a result of it so there is no space now I think that is a big factor in Eastern Europe where they have different concerns to those of us in Western Europe they have concerns broadly speaking around security and defence which are a huge issue which don't even I mean we have this ridiculous fictitious debate about European army in this country meanwhile you know countries in the Baltic states and along the eastern border with Russia we have to remember that European country was invaded by Russia and part of its territory annex not only EU member states but a European country only a few short years ago and we didn't respond and NATO didn't respond these are the issues that are worrying those countries along with the attempt to shut down debate and the feeling that the European agenda is being driven by this drive for constant consensus when in fact a healthy democracy allows for a variety of views within reason so I think that that is I think we need political leadership for people to stand up for actual genuine healthy debate allow differences of opinion and yes ultimately arrive a consensus that is how your business done at a political level I mean we heard a green candidate in this country yesterday morning quoted in the newspaper saying if I'm elected you know if my party joins I'm going to leave the party I mean you're not even elected and you're leaving the party but how else do you advance your agenda you have to compromise and you have to work together for sure but taking outsourcing political decision making from parliament to these randomly selected other elite groups who are not elected to my mind is crazy and then I'll give you the last word ok well I'll defend the citizens assembly so no I just think that as we've pointed out like we live in the bubble we're part of this elite or whatever citizens assembly or a mechanism along those lines allows for citizens to debate I think there actually is a balance of views they're randomly selected again the random being different according to countries etc but they're randomly selected there's an education process and in terms of government kind of shirking and passing the book like as far as I can see I've been here 20 years and no Irish government went near the abortion issue like for years like way before the citizens assembly so the citizens assembly and even when I heard about the issue being put to a citizens assembly I was like yeah forget it this is never going to happen and when they recommended not only like repeating the 8th but going further that can't be right but actually that gives a pulse of what the country thinks and not the elite not that bubble so the fact that citizens assembly includes like expert views that are debated there's a balance debate happening and there's a legitimacy coming from I think from those randomly selected citizens and we've seen it in Ireland like the results is that the referendum have been passed really convincingly you don't think so? on very sensitive issues Mary in last word we have to call it there Mary in last word just to go back to the citizens assembly there for start I have said my love I resent and have always been called the elite but you know your scene like this by the people? I hope not but that's another story but no I do and in any conversation I'm partaking if somebody refers to me as the elite I will refuse to accept that label but that's an important issue citizens assembly I'm sitting on the fence here I can see how it has driven change in Ireland that is absolutely the case but equally if government is going to outsource its decision making on sensitive issues that's not good either so while I believe in participative democracy alongside representative democracy because that's my background participative democracy I think we do need to be careful how we frame it so I wouldn't be as negative as Lucinda is though I can see the negatives there are and equally I might be as positive as you are you mentioned about Brexit and complacency I think Brexit definitely has shook up the body politic to some extent because if we go back to and people forget that the Dutch and the French voted against the constitution treaty you know for years all we heard was that Ireland voted against Nice and Lisbon there was airbrush very quickly out of history that the Dutch and the French did and they found ways around it and of course that French vote I mentioned earlier the posting of workers that's what it was all about and that message never really got out and it's there but to come back to the complacency question I think there was a lot of complacency I think to some extent there still is but I also think that when people look at the UK it's a mixture of reasons as to why the majority, the small majority voted to leave and if we look at Salvini's rise in Italy that's really to do with migration and you know something I believe if the level of migration was happening in Ireland under the same circumstances as in Italy we'd be electing Salvini the person who'd be topping the Poland, Midlands, North West might not be mine again but might be Peter Casey so you know the complacency is when it doesn't touch you and I think Europe has woken up to that a little bit but whether it's sufficient or not can say but the thing about the UK is that there were a number of reasons and one of them as we all know was 30 years of newspapers you know banging out a message it was that and then it was also the migration issue and of course it was the sense that Britain is big enough to be on its own and succeed on its own I think a lot of people just unfortunately missed the point that globalization is a fact of life and for the British to feel they can go it alone successfully of course they can go it alone but successfully and for other economy is that they think that the world is the same as it was 20 years ago and it's not but is Europe too complacent in its response yes and no because I hear everybody talking about reforming Europe people have very different views about what that is and what's reforming Europe there are people who will say it's social policy but we can't go much further with a change in the treaty and that isn't going to happen there are people who will say it's defence you know but in western Europe that doesn't matter as much as eastern Europe sorry I don't want me to finish so I leave it at that thanks very much I think we have to leave it there because the contract is you have to get back to work I know I just want to thank our three speakers Emmanuel, Lucinda and Marion for coming and giving us out there expertise it's very good to get insights into what's happening at this very interesting time so perhaps you'll show your appreciation where we're at


Gone Men have attacked two police stations and checkpoints in Potakot and killed seven police officers in the process. In a statement issued in Potakot on Saturday, a police spokesman in River State, S.P. Namdi Omone, described the attacks as unprovoked and mindless. Police and customs officers manning various security checkpoints in a query local government area of rivers were killed during the attacks. Omone stated that the attackers carried the attacks were carried out in the late hours of Friday at three different police posts.


Welcome folks, this is Tom O'Brien of TFNN. We have five days a week. We go seven hours a day. We go 24 hours a day on the internet at tfnn.com. Always remember folks, whatever you think about, you bring about whatever you focus on grows. Hope everyone's having a great day, safe day. Let's make it a great night, folks. Be impeccable with your word. Release the need to be right. When you believe something, you assume you're right. You may even destroy relationships in order to defend your position. Let go of the need to defend your position. Market wise, let's take a look at it out here. We have the Dow Industries down 131. Nasdaq off 48. S&P's down 13 and a half gold. Gold contract up $26.20 straight at 19.33 an ounce. With silver up 39 cents, $24.04 an ounce. Light sweet crude up a buck, $80.44. That's been a round trip out here today in a monster way, folks. Notes and bonds, you get the 10-year note, trading down 10.6 at 115.19, the 30-year down 12 at 131.22. And the 10-year right now, folks, is yielding a 3.39. We hit 3.33 yesterday. And $king dollar, $king dollar just can't hold price down 324 ticks, trading at 102.039. The euro's at 108. The yen's at 128 and the British pound is trading at 123 to one US dollar. iPhone number's<PHONE_NUMBER>. Give us a call, folks. One note's going on in y'all world. And the world of the S&Ps, let's take a look at them. Well, I'm going to go right to the futures, because if you heard the update, the bottom line is that the future's only had to get a few points lower. Let me see if it did it. To get back inside this range, that could be a real problem. No, it's not there yet. Well, let me see. OK, so the number that we're looking for is right there. What is that? Yeah, 3933. Yeah, we're below it there. This is a problem. OK, you have a little problem child here happening. So this is why the problem child's there, folks. OK, what you had out here this morning is that on the opening bottom line, and this is a minute, I use the opening. I use it. When it's live, it's live. I don't care if it's the opening or the close, OK? The 10 minutes, the 10 minutes. So you had 79,000 contracts. Then the next 10-minute buy was to a higher high was 61,000. Well, what happened is this. The first lunge up, you had 40,000. That lunge up was at 140 this afternoon. Then you went to a higher high, we're 27. So the correlation, this was so cool about time in the trade, it's all about supply and demand. And it shows you the weakness or the strength inside the marketplace. And so in this particular case, you're looking at, OK, the last high had 27,000. The prior high to that had 46,000. The next high had 61,000 and the one before that 79, OK? So now, that's the bad news, right? Meaning if you want to smack the high. The good news here is at the bottom here, we don't have a high volume low. We did do. You can see this that we went out to 3901.75. Well, the ABC down we were talking about yesterday, intraday it was 3905, OK? So it hit your ABC down. Now, my speculation is this. You know, when we finish an ABC structure down or up, it normally does something else. I take is if we end up, this is how this goes, right? So let's picture if we look at this. If we end up at, I'm taking this, this is a little bar here. And if we end up at 3923, somewhere around this, that's another seven points. Let's put it this way, it's easier telling him. If we're down approximately 22, 22 points and over in the S&P, this is building cause so much lower price. That's how that works. Because you finish the ABC structure, it always bounces around to something. But if it wants to do another ABC down, what you're going to see is that there's no strength to stay up. They snake it lower on the clothes and we'll be able to see that pretty quickly, you know? Because we just had the failure. So if I bring the NQs up, we take a look at the NQs, same situation. So in the NQs, same thing in the NQs, we don't have a high volume low either, OK? So in the NQs, if we do the exercise again, watch. The first way up, we had 33,000. Then we made a high with 26,000. Then we made a higher high with 8,900. Yeah, that's a joke, OK? Now on the way down again, it's the same deal though. There's not high volume. There's not a lot of conviction when you're getting lower to sell this thing. That's the bottom line. So inside the NQs, that being said, if the NQs close out, what is that? 3, 3. If we close out like down, that's another 50. If we close down over 100, it's going to be telling you the same thing. And guess what? We are going south. Goal. Let's go take a look at the gold contract out here, because the gold contract is hitting highs. And if you're at the update, there's Alastin Gulf and again, we've had plenty of them. That being said, bottom line is that you're breaking high here. Now you get 193,000 contracts, and that's good contract volume. There's no doubt about that. And we've had higher, but now 193,000 is good contract volume. So now the kick is going to be, Alastin Gulf means you start at the low, you go to the high after an uptrend. But you can see, we've had them. And they end up being one day wonders of this particular case. Now the thing to keep, yeah, and that's going to go over to the dollar, because it's all about the dollar. It's amazing that we have divergences out here in spades now, folks. There's no doubt. So the dollar's been moving sideways. That's the reality. The dollar tried to get off the lows yesterday, got down to 101, closed at 102, well, 101, 500 at once, closed at 102, 560, went as high as 102, 800. But the dollar was going to do anything as to get back inside 103, 500. So we're a long way from getting back inside the higher range. That's the bottom line. We'll take a look at some of the higher volume equities out here today. And I want to see this indices for a second. We don't have volume inside the ETF structures. Yeah, it doesn't look to me like you're going to get big volumes out of the indices either. Yeah, you're not. So this is going to be all about today, folks. This is going to be about can the market hold price, meaning that can it close kind of where it is right now or a little bit higher? Because if it does, then you're going to get a bunch tomorrow. And then we'll go to see, in that particular case, what kind of energy do you have going forward? And it's going to be hard to basically get hard energy going forward on a Friday. But we'll take it day by day, baby.  Stay right there, folks. You're coming right back.


At the end of the long semester when we've all been working hard, we've come here this evening not to work hard, but to do something different. I didn't do this enough to be good with you. Now, let's come in first of all, over the years. And with learning new languages, we have Akman John to live and we're here. Spend your passion, follow your interests, and work with others.