What if you could predict the future? What if we all could? I'm here today to tell you that you can. We all can. We have the power to predict the future. The bad news is that we're not very good at it. The good news is that even a bad prediction can tell us something about the future. Today, we will predict. Today, we will learn. Today, we will discover why. Bayes is Bay. Introducing our protagonist. This is Thomas Bayes. Thomas was born in 1701. Maybe. We don't exactly know. He was born to a town called Harfordshire. Those, okay. Possibly, we can't know for certain. We don't actually even know what Bayes looked like. What we do know is that Bayes was a Presbyterian minister and a statistician. We also know that his most famous work was published at paper that gave us Bayes' rule was not published until after his death. Before this, he published two other papers. The Divine Benevolence or an attempt to prove that the principle and of the Divine Providence and government is the happiness of his creatures. Yes, that is one title. As well as an introduction of the doctrine of fluxons and a defense of the mathematicians against the objections of the author of the analyst. I like my titles a little bit shorter, but everybody has different preferences. So why do we care about this? Well, Bayes contributed significantly to probability with the formulation of Bayes' rule. And again, even though it wasn't published until after his death, let's travel back and put our minds in a commoner of the era. So the year is 1720. Sweden and Prussia just signed the Treaty of Stockholm. Anna Maria Mozart, the mother of the person who wrote the requiem that we just enjoyed. Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, so not Mozart, but his mother was born in 1720. And statistics is all of the rage as well as probabilities. At the time, we can do things like say, given we know the number of winning tickets at a raffle, what is the probability of any one given ticket will be a winner? In the 1720s, Gulliver's Travels was published. This is 45 years before the American Revolution. 45 years before we went to battle with Britain and gained our independence. And also in the 1720s, Easter Island is discovered because people knew it was there before, but the Dutch didn't. So, and I don't know if you know this or if you've seen this, but there's actually a lot more to the statues. There's a lot more underneath the surface, which is also very true of probability as well. See, what we knew how to get the probability of a winning ticket, what we didn't know how to do was the inverse. An inverse probability says that, okay, well, if we draw 100 tickets and we find that 10 of them are a winner, what does that say about the probability of drawing a winner? Well, in this case, it's pretty simple. 10 are winners, we drew 100 tickets, it's about 10%. But what if we have fewer samples? What if we have one sample? We drew one ticket and it was a winner. Well, does that mean that 100% of tickets are winners? Is that what we're gonna guess? So, the answer is no. We wouldn't guess that. That's not, you know, you're like, oh, well, maybe it's a really weird raffle, but I've not found any raffles that are like that. And the reason why you were able to correctly answer that is because you can predict the future. Even if that prediction's wrong, not dead on, it's still better than making no prediction at all. This was Bayes' insight that we can take two probability distributions that are related, and even if they're both inaccurate, the result will be more accurate. We can do things with this, such as machine learning and artificial intelligence. I'll be focusing on artificial intelligence in this talk. But I wanna take a second and introduce myself. My name is Shneems. It's pronounced like schnapps. It's got the little fun sh at the beginning. I maintain sprockets poorly. I have commit to rails as well as Puma. And I'm also taking a CS and Masters, a Masters in CS at Georgia Tech with their online program. I went there for my bachelor's for mechanical engineering degree and absolutely hated it. It was brutal and not very much fun. But they're only charging me seven grand for the entire program. So it's pretty cheap, you know, not a bad deal. So I work full-time for a time-share company. We, we, it's time-share with computers. That's what we do. So you hopefully, some of you already know what Heroku is. So instead of pitching or explaining Heroku, I'm gonna explain some new features you might not have heard of. We have a thing introduced called automatic certificate management. This will provision a Let's Encrypt SSL cert for your app and automatically rotate it every 90 days, which is pretty sweet. We also have SSL for free. And that was on all paid and hobby dinos. And the SSL that we offer for free is what's known as SNI SSL. And I don't know if you heard about the legislation that went through Congress that was like, hey, FCC, you cannot protect people's privacy. Anybody hear about that? Okay, yeah.  The free version of SSL that we have, which is SNI, does leak the host name to your ISP. But we also have a NSA grade SSL, which is an add on that you have to add and then you also have to provision and maintain your own certificate. We have Heroku CI, which is continuous integration. It's in beta, you can give that a shot. Review apps, which I absolutely, positively love, try these if you haven't. Every time you make a pull request, Heroku will automatically deploy a staging server just for that pull request. So you're like, hey, I fixed this CSS bug. It's like, did you really, did you? The person reviewing can click through, see an actual live deployed app and verify that. So that's it for the company I work for. Typically this would be the time when I do a little bit of self promotion. And typically I would do something like promote the service that I run called CodeTriage, which is the best place to get started contributing to open source. But since I'm not going to be talking about CodeTriage, instead what I want to talk about is the biggest problem our country faces, especially I've come from Texas and the state of Texas, faces gerrymandering, which is awful. And unlike CodeTriage, gerrymandering is very bad. Anyway, so this is gerrymandering. Basically given a population, you could represent it perfectly and say, okay, well there are more blue squares than there are more red squares. So we should have more blue districts than red districts. But if you look all the way over on the side, you can create those districts in such a way that, oh, magically now there are more red districts. So this is where I live. This is the district that in Texas that stretches from San Antonio to Austin. I don't know if you know, but that's a really far away. Yeah, I mean, just look at it. Seriously. So yeah, gerrymandering kind of takes away your voice, diminishes the power of your vote. And so I think we need country wide redistricting reforms and it's not just me who thinks this. My district was actually ruled illegal by the state of Texas, the judicial branch. Unfortunately, a illegal district will not deter the people in charge of redistricting in Texas and they're refusing to hear any bills on the issue. And you might say, wow, that's a really important issue. Okay, but what can I do? So I highly recommend looking up your state, representatives, you have a house representative and a senate representative, like find them, find their, mine are Kirk Watson and Eddie Rodriguez. I have their phone numbers in my phone and then call them and let them know, like, hey, I care about redistricting and I care about gerrymandering and like I want this to be an issue that we should push. You might say, oh, well, is there more than I can do? Well, there are local organizations. For example, in Texas, there's DeGerrymander, Texas, which is a really long Twitter handle. And they give guides and talk about current legislation and those types of things. So yeah, I just think that gerrymandering is very unpatriotic, un-Texan, it can be un-Arizona to no bias and it really just takes away the freedom to elect people who represent us. So okay, yeah, back to Bays. So artificial intelligence. For this talk, I'm gonna be talking about some examples for the grad course that I've been taking at Georgia Tech, where we've been using Bayes rule for artificial intelligence with robotics. If you're not familiar, this is what a robot looks like. Robots. The world is very different ever since the robotic uprising of the mid-90s. There is no more unhappiness. Affirmative. Okay, can I get the audio just like a little bit? Okay, there we go. So when we have a robot and we need to get that robot somewhere, we need two things. We need to know where the robot is and then we also need to have a plan on how to get them there. So robots don't see the world the same way we see them. They see them through sensors and those sensors are unfortunately noisy so they don't see the world perfectly clear. So given the case that we have a robot and a really simple robot can move, let's say just right and left, if we take a measurement, it will tell us about where it is. We can represent this by putting it on a graph and this is a normal distribution. So here we have a robot, it's at position zero but we don't know for sure that it's at position zero. It could be further away. It could be all the way over at point six but this is a lot less likely. It's not very probable. The more accurate our measurement, the steeper our curve will be. It'll, we are now at this point in time, it's almost impossible that it would be at point six and it's much more likely that it would be a lot closer to point zero. So a robot is an example of a low information state system. We could take thousands or hundreds of measurements of that robot as it's just sitting there and average them together but what if our world is changing or if there's other things impacting our sensors or it's like, hey, our robot needs to move and do things and so one of the things that we can do is use Bayes rule. We can make a prediction and with that prediction use it to increase the accuracy of the estimate of where the robot is. So previously we thought we were at position zero plus or minus some error. Well then we can predict what the world would look like if we were to drive forwards by 10 feet. If we did that, it would look something kind of like this. We were at zero, now we're at 10 but we wanna be sure so we take a measurement and it says, oh, we're not at 10, it's showing that we're at five. So what do we do? Our measurement and our prediction disagree. So probably a good guess might be somewhere right in between the two. We can take our measurement and our prediction and make a convolution which is a really fancy way of saying the product of two functions. The result is actually more accurate than either of our guesses individually. So even though our measurement was noisy, we don't actually know if we're at five and our prediction was noisy, we're not actually at 10, the end result is more reliable. And this gives us a common filter. A common filter can be used anytime you have a model of motion and some noisy data that you want to produce a more accurate prediction. So how good is a common filter, you might ask? This is an example of a homework assignment that was given to us. The green represents an actual robot's path where all of the little red dots are the noisy measurements. And it's so noisy that if you just take two subsequent points, two measurements, you can't tell which direction the robot is moving in because the second point might actually be way behind the first point. So it's incredibly, incredibly noisy. And this is part of the class. You can actually go to Udacity and take the course for free and this is the final thing that they do in the course. If you end up going to Georgia Tech, there's a little bit more involved. But to make things even more interesting, not only do you have to figure out where the robot is, you have your own robot that moves slightly slower than the one you're trying to find and you have to chase it. So you have to predict where it'll be, a time or two into the future, and then be there. And sorry for anybody who's colorblind. They picked the colors, not me. So what does this look like? Well, if we can apply a common filter and we end up something kind of like this, before our red dots were virtually unusable, as I mentioned, given two points, we can't even determine the direction. But with this correctly implemented, we can see our chaser robot getting closer and closer. So I like a little bit of audience participation. Who here likes money? Okay. All right, I think some people didn't raise their hands. It's okay. Before we look at how a common filter looks like, let's look at some cold hard cash. This is a 1913 Liberty Head Nickel. It was produced without the approval of the US Mint and as a result, they only made five of them. Only five of these got into circulation. As a result, it's incredibly, incredibly rare, and if you find this, it's worth $3.7 million. So yeah, I'd say that's a pretty penny, but I'll be here all week, folks. This is not a Liberty Head Nickel. This is a trick coin that for some reason, your coin collecting friend happened to have two heads instead of being the actual Liberty Head Nickel, and this coin collecting friend also has a $3.7 million coin, and for some strange reason, they put two coins into a bag and shake it up and draw one. So we have one fair coin and one trick coin in our bag. They say, hey, you know what? Like, do you wanna play a game? Do you wanna make $3.7 million? And so they take a coin out, they flip it, and they say that, oh, okay, it landed on heads. From here on, they might try to make some sort of a wager or a bet. Like, okay, well, if it's the $3.7 million coin, you can keep it, but otherwise you have to, I don't know, mow my lawn or something. I mean, it's fairly equivalent, right? But would that be a good bet or not? In order to know, we have to know what is the probability that given it landed on heads that we have our fair coin. To do this, we can use Bayes' Rule. So this is what it looks like to explain a little bit of the syntax. The P stands for probability, and we are saying the probability of A given B. So this is the probability that we have a $3.7 million coin given that we know it was heads. That's the information. That's all we knew. So in order to do this, we can flush this out piece by piece. So the probability of heads. Well, what is the probability of heads? We have three total chances of getting heads and one chance of getting tails. So we have a three out of four or a 75% chance of getting heads. Another way that we can do this is say, well, there's a 50% chance that we get our fair coin, and if we get that fair coin, there's a 50% chance that it's heads. There's, we can add that to a 50% chance of getting our trick coin, and if we get our trick coin, there's 100% chance that we are gonna get heads. And when you do that, you end up with the exact same result. This is just the more mathy way of achieving that instead of intuition, because later on, I tried to teach my program intuition. It didn't work out too well. Also, so this is a talk on artificial intelligence, and I have to admit I don't know a whole lot about artificial intelligence, or I would have written in artificial intelligence to write my talk. So, thank you. Okay, so we're gonna add this onto our equation and keep moving. So now we wanna know what is the probability of A? The probability of getting that $3.7 million coin. Well, we know we have two different cases. They're equally probable. We have a 50% chance of getting that coin, and we can add this back to our equation. The last piece is the probability of heads given that we have a fair coin, given that we have this $3.7 million coin. So in that case, we only have, like assuming that we have the fair coin, we flip it, there's only a one out of two chance that we have heads. So that's 50%, we can add it here. When we put all of that together, we end up with a one in three, or 0.33% chance of owning a multi-million dollar, 1913 Liberty Head nickel. So one in three, it's not great, but it's not nothing. This is what we can do with Bayes rule. Given two related probabilities, in this case, what is the probability we'll get heads, and also what is the probability that we'll draw our money coin, we can accurately predict that relationship. Khan Academy has a really good resource on Bayes rule, and instead, another way to teach this, this is the very mathy way, one other way to look at this is with trees. So here's essentially that. To answer this question, we need only rewind and grow a tree. The first event, he picks one of two coins. So our tree grows two branches leading to two equally likely outcomes, fair or unfair. The next event, he flips the coin, we grow again. If he had the fair coin, we know this flip can result in two equally likely outcomes, heads and tails. While the unfair coin results in two outcomes, both heads. Our tree is finished, and we see it has four leaves, representing four equally likely outcomes. The final step, new evidence. He says, heads. Whenever we gain evidence, we must trim our tree. We cut any branch leading to tails because we know tails did not occur, and that is it. So the probability that he chose the fair coin is the one fair outcome leading to heads divided by the three possible outcomes leading to heads, or one third. All right, so if we use trees or we use Bayes rule, we get the same outcome. I'm not an expert in probability, but that's probably a good thing. One element I mentioned, but didn't dwell on, was total probability, and also I'm very terribly sorry, I lied about Bayes rule. That isn't all of Bayes rule. It actually looks a little bit more like this. So this is the expanded form, and to see both side by side, this is just expanded the total probability of the expanded on the bottom. So what exactly is total probability? If we're gonna look at our problem another way, we can say, all right, well we have a 50% chance of our actual coin or the $0 trick coin. And in this problem space, if we're gonna land on heads, heads is going to completely take up the trick coin case. If we have the trick coin, there's 100% chance of heads. However, it only half takes up the $3.7 million coin. If we land on tails, tails falls entirely inside of the $3.7 million coin, and we have 100% chance that that is that coin. Now, what we actually wanna know is this section. What we want to know is the total probability of getting heads, and in order to do that, we can calculate it by adding up this section along with this section, and that will give us the total probability. To write it out long form, we have the probability of heads given that we have our fair coin times the probability of the fair coin, plus the probability of heads times the trick coin multiplied by the probability of getting that trick coin. So it's just this summation, and we did this previously when I showed you this slide, but I didn't explain exactly why we did it or where we're getting that math from. So that's where it came from. We can make this a little bit tougher though. What if we flipped two coins, or what if we flipped the coin twice and it landed on heads both times? In order to do that, it makes it actually a little simpler if we use the expanded form. I'm not gonna dwell on exactly where we got all of the numbers from as much, but here the suffix I indicates each of the different cases, so we could have a coin that is our fair coin or we could have a coin that is the not fair coin. So the probability of landing on heads twice given our fair coin is gonna be, you flip it, it's a 50% chance of heads. You flip it again, it's a 50% chance of heads. Multiply those two together. The probability of getting that fair coin hasn't changed. It never will. There's always a 50% chance of getting one out of two coins. And then we can flesh out this summation and at the bottom, again, so it's a 0.25 times a half plus if we get heads or if we have the trick coin, it's 100% probability, so it's one times the probability of getting the trick coin, which is a half. You all with me? Okay, all right. So if you add all this together, you end up with a fifth, which is 0.2. And now Bayes rule doesn't claim certainty. You know, our values are going down. It is more and more and more likely that we do not have the fair coin, but it's never actually gonna reach zero. And that's a really important part because if it does reach zero and then we flipped it again and it turned out to be tails, well, the way Bayes rule is written, it would never recover from that. Mathematically, it would never recover from that. So sorry to get a little bit mathy, but we need it. Is anybody ready for a break from math? All right, so we are gonna take a break from math with some more math. All right, for that, I'm gonna put on my math jacket. I do appreciate you all bearing with me. So if we look back at Bayes rule again, one way to represent it would be splitting the equation out. This is exactly what we had before, but on one side, we basically have a constant. The probability of getting our fair coin every single time was exactly the same. So this is gonna be called our prior. Without any information at all in the system, whether we can say that would be the probability of getting our coin. This other section is after we have information. So it's a posterior, so post information. And even if our prior is zero point five, our posterior, if we have the case where we got a tails, our posterior is so large that it actually pulls the zero point five up all the way to be 100% and say we definitively have a fair coin.  Previously, we looked at a graph and we had a prediction. And so that is actually gonna be our prior. We also had a measurement and that's gonna be our posterior. This is the thing that updated after we got new information. And our convolution, we're gonna be somewhere in between. We don't exactly know where. So that's where actually implementing a Kalman filter comes from. So the next example comes from Simon D. Levy. I have a link to this resource. Step-by-step goes through and really explains the math. I know your heads might be hurting a little bit, but I'm barely skimming the surface. And some of it's really interesting. He also has a fairly unique and fairly simple example that I'm gonna walk through how to implement it in a Kalman filter. So let's say we've got a plane. And this plane is really simple. All it can do is land, apparently. And the way you control it is by multiplying your current altitude by some other value. In this case, it's 0.75. And this gives us a nice steady landing. Towards the end, it's like moving in smaller and smaller and smaller increments until eventually we kinda touch down. Unfortunately, our measurements are really, really, really noisy. So this is that line, but with 20% noise. And we're actually going below the ground here. We're going negative measurements. So according to our measurements, like we're repeatedly slamming into the ground.  It's like, but if you are writing a system that it depends on those measurements, we need it to be a nice straight line, nice smooth line instead of this jagged thing that sometimes indicates we're below the ground. So we're gonna actually program this in a Kalman filter. We're gonna start off with our rate of descent, just 0.75, our initial position, and our measurement error. We're then gonna just make a guess. We're gonna say, well, let's just assume you were at the very first position that you were measured at. And we also introduce a new thing called P, which is our estimation error. This is our prediction error. And this is gonna be a value between zero and one that we're gonna use to remember how we kind of adjusted our robot sort of back and forth. Is it closer to the prediction? Is it closer to the measurement? And that's how we're gonna do that. To get started, we pull a measurement off of our measurement array. Oh, and I do apologize. This is in Python. Yeah, I assume everybody here's a polyglot. Luckily, all of the code is identical to what it would be in Ruby except for the very top line, the 4K in range 10. All right, so we start off with our guess. We multiply where we currently were by our constant. So 0.75. That's now where we think we are. We then wanna say, build into our system some way where if we move just a little teeny tiny bit, our prediction's probably pretty accurate. But if we move a whole lot, our prediction's not that accurate. So we're going to multiply our motion by our prediction error. And the reason we do this twice is that prediction error is actually represented as sigma squared. So it's error squared. And you don't really need to know that just multiply twice. So that's the prediction phase. Then after we've predicted, we have to update it with our measurement. I'm gonna skip this gain line and instead go straight to the actual update. So we have our guess of where we currently are. Then we add it with a mysterious gain number times the current measurement minus the previous guess. And so the way that we can think about this gain is it's sort of the ratio of our last measurement and the prediction. If our prediction error is really low, like really, really low, then our gain is really, really low. And if it's so low that it gets pretty close to zero, we can approximate zero. And when that happens, we can actually eliminate out this entire term. And that means that we should just ignore our noisy measurements altogether. Our last prediction was so good, it was so good, we don't even need our new measurements. Either that or our new measurements were so bad that it's not helping us in any way, shape, or form. If the prediction error is high, then it means we have a really high gain. And when that happens, we end up approaching one. And when we do this, we have an X guess, and then we also have a negative X guess. And those two terms cancel each other out and we end up just guessing whatever our measurement is. This means that we throw out our previous prediction and just use our measurement. You might wanna do this in a case where it turns out that your sensor is really, really, really accurate, but your prediction model is not. So a way to visualize that is if our prediction is less certain or less accurate, it's kinda a little bit more flat and our robot would be leaning towards our measurement, or if our prediction is more certain, it's a little bit more peaky, then our robot is gonna be leaning more towards the prediction.  So that the jagged line represents our very noisy measurements. The blue line represents the actual value of the plane and the little green squares are what we are predicting. Now it's not dead on. Like again, we're not perfect at predicting the future, but we're pretty close. We're a lot better than what we had previously and given this, hopefully our plane won't crash into the ground repeatedly. So that's pretty much the simplest case of a Kalman filter. We can get a lot, a lot deeper. There's a lot more scenarios and situations. One of the more common things is having a Kalman filter in a matrix form. For example, in this case, we only had altitude, but what if we also had engine speed and like barometric pressure and the angle of our flaps and the angle of the pilot is pulling back on the controls like, and if we put all of those together and instead if they are related, instead of individually writing a Kalman filter for each of them, we put them in one Kalman filter, it actually ends up being much, much, much more accurate for the entire system. And so, yeah, this looks pretty similar, but it's, yeah, there's a little bit more going on that we don't necessarily have time to get into. The other case where a Kalman filter gets into trouble is in motion that isn't linear. So previously, yes, we had a nice gentle curve, but each step itself was linear. Each step was just based on a constant multiplied by the previous step. But there are cases where we have sinusoidal motion or logarithmic or just not linear. And when that happens, we end up having two different probability distributions. And then when we put them together, in order to add two probability distributions together, they have to be on the same plane. And here we're kind of estimating and making a bad estimation. Granted, this is still likely better than doing it without any kind of just taking the noisy measurements, but I would recommend not doing this. Instead, there's other ways. There's an extended Kalman filter. There's an unscented Kalman filter. And this is kind of the way I think of extended Kalman filters is it rotates the plane of our probability distribution so that it approximates, it still has to be on a line and it still has to, both of them have to be on the same line, but we can approximate our curve by rotating it. All right, okay, so that's it for Bayes rule, or that, sorry, that's it for Kalman filter. I did want to go back a little bit to Bayes rule and touch on the two most important parts. So the prediction, if we never predict the future, then we can't know if we're right or wrong. This is what scientists, this is why scientists start with a hypothesis. If the hypothesis is wrong, we're forced to reevaluate our underlying assumption. When we, and then whenever we get new information, we have to update. We have to update our own set of beliefs. And the interesting thing about this is we can never be too sure of ourselves. No matter how many times we get heads, we can never be 100% sure that it is a trick coin unless we actually investigate it. And that's why this is probability. As soon as it dips to that, you end up going all the way to zero, or if you just make that claim, if you say, oh, there's a zero percent chance this could ever happen, Bayes rule will not help you, your system can never recover. So yes, I already gave the example previously of even if you get tails, it's like, sorry, Bayes rule tells you there's a zero percent chance you cannot recover. So no matter how sure of yourself that you are, you always need to remain a little bit skeptical. You might think that there's a zero percent chance, or that there's a hundred percent chance of the sun coming up tomorrow. That'd be a pretty good bet. And for most days, you'd be right, but if it turns out that tomorrow is the day that our sun turns into a red giant and consumes the earth, hopefully your millennia of prior experience with the sun coming up every day, doesn't cause you to accidentally die. On that note, it always pays to have good information. And good guesses. We don't have to wait until our sun explodes. We can actually take a look at other stars and see what happens to them. We can compare our situation to, it's like, oh, maybe not, it's not exactly the same, but it'll give us a better prediction than we would have otherwise. And so the more data and the more predictions that we make, the better our outcomes will be. Let that sink in. So I highly recommend a book called Algorithms to Live By. I think it's a book every programmer should read. It's very narrative and it has an entire chapter on Bayes' Rule. It's very easy to read. It doesn't get into the math nitty gritty like I did. I also have, I see some people taking photos. I'm gonna leave it up here and speak to delay the next slide. Okay, good, good. I also highly recommend The Signal and the Noise. This is a book written by Nate Silver. It's about probability. Nate Silver runs 538. He successfully predicted our 45th president, has a one in five chance of winning, and would likely lose the popular vote. He did not predict the magnitude by which he would lose the popular vote. Just saying. The audio I got, it's Mozart in Requiem in D Minor. Previously, the Kalman tutorial. You can go to bit.ly slash Kalman dash tutorial. This is Steven D. Levy's resource. And then also, if you're really into Kalman filters and you wanna see a lot of that unscented Kalman filters, extended Kalman filters, this is a great resource. It's just bit.ly slash Kalman dash notebook. And unfortunately, all of this is also in Python. But it's, I mean, if you know Ruby, it's pretty easy to read. You can also check out Udacity and Georgia Tech. And if you didn't know, Bay is not short for baby. It's African American vernacular and it stands for before anyone else. So Copernicus built on top of Bay's theory and developed special cases of when we can truly have no prior estimate. What should we do? Laplace took Bay's work.  So before there was Copernicus, before there was Laplace, Bay's was Bay. Thank you very much.


Hi everyone, Joe for Jaspy's casebreaks.com coming at you with 2020 Panini Prism Football. Cellopack break number 70, giving away the final five honors spots. We'll do that randomizer in a different dice roll at the end of the break. Big thanks to everybody here for getting in on it. Appreciate it, thanks for taking the risk. There's all the teams right there. So let's do the break first. Let's roll it, randomize it five into one six times for each list. One, two, three, four, five, and a one, sixth and final time. Got Josh, down to Anthony. Five and a one, six times for the teams. One, two, three, four, five, and once more. Yep, sixth and final time. Ooh Orleans, new Orleans, down to the Colts. All right, so there's the first half of the list right there. And there's the second half of the list right there. Could there be some surprises in this? Yes, it has happened before. But of course the main point of this break is to give away those spots. So those are the honors boxes that we're gonna do after this video. What's going on here? Something just looks weird on my screen here. Let me just go to what the live stream looks like. No, that looks fine. Okay, and here is the pack that we're gonna do first. Once again, here's the final printout right here. And the honors rake will be in a separate video. So if you're looking for the honors rake itself, it's not gonna be here. Nothing crazy there. What about the red, white, and blue exclusive? Basically, can we see a nice rookie here? No offense to Bradley and A, but we're kind of looking for those quarterbacks. All right, let's flip back to the screen. No dice there, but the whole point of this, again, is who's gonna win those honors spots. So let's grab everybody's names. Thanks everybody for getting in. Appreciate it. And let's roll it and randomize that list. One and a four, five times. It's top five after five, good luck. Fingers crossed. One, two, three, four, and fifth and final time after five. So from six on down, it's gonna be sad times. Sad times theater. Thanks for trying though, appreciate it. Happy times for the top five. Happy times for Joshua, Sean, Joshua, Sean and Joshua. There you go, you're in. We'll see you for that honors rake, jaskyscasebreaks.com.


Meezy, hello, so who are you? I'm Helen, that's the meteor here. And who are you? Hello, I'm Jeff. And what are you looking, what are you looking at here? This is the 3D projector. This is a 3D projector. Yeah, you can see it. This is the HDMI port, this is an SD card. And you can see it. SD card slot. Yeah, SD card. Nice. This is the audio, audio line out and USB. This is the USB. And this is the smart 3G. Yeah, yeah, 3D. 500 lumens, 300 inch cinema, it's a short throw. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's big, big screen. Short throw. How much does she cost this one, maybe? This one, about $500. $500? What's CPU? Is it Android? This one is the M-Star. M-Star, Android. Yeah, and the project. Nice. You also have a small one right here. This is a mini, mini projector. Mini portable with a USB? Yes, with USB. And 50 lumens. 50 lumens. Yes. And it's a normal project, just a plain France USB or SD card. You also will do Android version? Yes, we will do some Android mini project. Smart like this, small like this one? Yes, it's more like this. And our new project with Android system will release the next month. And how much she costs, maybe? About 120 US dollars. But also smart projector? Yes, yes, also the new one, similar one. And what are you looking at here? What is this? Oh, this is our newest model. It's an Android TV box. And the chip side is the newest one, Retake, Retake 1295. So it's right here, RT, D1295, ARM Cortex A53, 10 bits, HEVC, all this stuff. With a hard disk? Yes, this one gives support to beauty hard disk and 3.5. And the hard disk drive can be up to 4TB. Nice. What is the most popular device you have right now? You sell many like this, 905X? This is another Android TV box with a logical S905X and also new Android model. And you do stuff like this? This is just a Miracast Dango. And the Miracast Dango, yes, but our popular model is this HDMI Transmit. Okay, let's check. So you can transmit HDMI? How does this work? Yes, these products were popular during the Hong Kong Vietnam. And this is the best one, the distance just 10 minutes, you can show this specifications. 60 GHz HDMI transmission? Yes. Is the full HDMI quality wireless? This is the same? Yes. And the distance can be up to 30 meters and there are 4 HDMI in, so you can connect 4 different devices. And then you can have the TV in the other room? Yes. Far away? Yes. And this is the receiver? Yes, this is the receiver. Nice. And we had paired the two models together, so you just connect this one with the other device and this one connected with the monitor. Do you have any price for this? For this one, it's priced at 130 US dollars. All right. For MLQ? MLQ for 200 PCs.


Rwm iawn. Welcome to the 23rd meeting of the Education, Children and Young People Committee in 2022. I would like to welcome Stephen Kerr back to the committee, and Stephen is replacing Oliver Mundell. So on behalf of the committee I would like to thank Oliver for his contribution to the work of the committee this session. Our first item of business, therefore, is to invite Stephen to declare any relevant interests. I am delighted that I am to be back on the committee as a committee member and I have no relevant interests to declare. Our next item of business is an evidence session on universities. We have two panels to hear from today. I would like to welcome the witnesses for our first panel, Mary Sr, from UCU Scotland and Ellie Gormasol, who is president of the National Union of Students Scotland. Thank you both for coming in this morning and thank you for your time. The committee does have a lot of questions so let's get started. If you don't mind, I don't normally take the first question but I am today. There has been a lot of coverage in the press around accommodation for students particularly relating to Glasgow University but it's not unique to them. What support do universities offer students experiencing homelessness How wide-spread is it an issue for students to access housing? The issue of student accommodation is in crisis and what we are seeing is a real lack of quality, affordable accommodation for students and those are the keywords there in terms of i'di i ddweud sicrhau gallwch yn gŷn gwael a'r holl i'r cyfgwrdd. Roedd'i hefyd ar y llun o gweld chi, ond mae esw《Prade Cymysgol》 a'r holl i'r ffwrdd miliwn i'r hynny yn holl eich ddeigol, a bwch yn gwneud o'r ddweud am taith o'r hyn ac yn rwyf. Mae eisiau defnyddio'r holl i'r holl i'r suppose a'r holl i'r holl i'r holl i'r holl i'r mynd. unigwydd arfer y ddweud o'r ddweud ym mwy o'r ddweud ym Mwy yn enwyd gyda'i i'r hwn, a'r ddweud ym Mwy o'r ddweud am y ddweud ym Mwy yn enwyd yn y ddweud. Rwy'n meddwl y byddai'n ei ffiant yma yng Nghymru, mae'r ddechrau'n gyflym yn unig iawn. Mae'r ddweud i'r ddweud ym mwy o'r pwysig, ddinsghwm y cyllid i fi arloedd cwbod i chi, a dydych chi'n ddigonol am fy ngyrsgawr gyda'i maen nhw i ga'r cychwyn i chi', fel mae'r trefyn arall. Mae'r peth eisiau'r cyllid i chi'n ddigonol am fighddwyr, ond, mae'n cyddio'u cyfeithio ychydig sy'n ddigonol a gymaeth i chi'n ddigonol y dyma cos yma o'i gyllid i chi, ac nid o ran bod rydw i'r llwyddiad. for universities that provide accommodation for students, and often, if there are rooms that they have available, then they're able to offer them out to students who are facing homelessness, but actually we're seeing that student numbers are increasing particularly at places like Glasgow. Edinburgh and St Andrews, a number of students who are being offered places to university, is going up, but the amount of accommodation provision that those universities are offering is not increasing in line with those increasing student numbers. So that presents a real challenge there. So in terms of support that we need to see, we need to see a student housing guarantee from universities where if they are increasing the number of students that they're offering places to, which like I said is a really good thing, it's great to see more students going to university, particularly those from more sort of traditionally deprived backgrounds. It's really good to see more students from those backgrounds who wouldn't normally go to university going to university, but we need to see, guarantee that those institutions will increase the amount of accommodation that they provide. And just recently we also know that the Scottish Government have announced a rent freeze and I hope that that will make an impact for students who are currently worried about whether or not they're going to be able to pay their rent, but there's that real worry particularly around purpose-built student accommodation as to how that will apply to students living in PPSAs and it's really important that all students are covered by that and in the rent control legislation that we know that the Scottish Government are working on. Thank you, I suppose it's a challenge that we're not going to see that legislation until the very last minute, so I've got a supplementary first. I don't know if Mary wants to contribute at all, but if I maybe do myself up and we can see how things look, or would you like to answer? Well, I guess I was just going to agree with Ellie that clearly it's good news that we have more people going to university as students. However, absolutely agree that students should be able to expect to have somewhere safe, suitable and affordable to live. I think I wanted to talk about the consequences of the increasing number of students at university and the impact this is having upon staff because it has real workload implications that we're seeing and convening you mentioned the University of Glasgow and we found out over the last week that the University of Glasgow is having to hire the Grover and Cinema to provide lectures to students because they've got such large cohorts of students. I think it's a concern that we don't have appropriate accommodation to deliver education and this is also having workload, massive workload issues for staff who are having to deliver lectures multiple times because there's this pressure to deliver in person whereas one option would be to deliver lectures remotely and to save the accommodation on site for tutorials and more interactive sessions. I think one of the reasons we're seeing this over recruitment is because of the pressure on universities to take in more rest of UK students and international students to plug funding gaps because the reality is international students are subsidising the tuition and the support that Scottish domiciled students get. I think we've had a perfect storm at the minute because of the cost of living crisis, the issues around housing that are in the economy generally but students are really at the sharp end and our members are suffering in terms of workload and the additional one-to-one support which students need if they're going to progress as well as I was talking to our members in universities over the past week and their concerns around homelessness and the worries that students have about where they live, sofa surfing, cost of living. That's not conducive to progressing effectively through the system so it brings in so many of the challenges that the sector is currently facing. You mentioned sofa surfing there, Mary, and it has been widely reported of that due to accommodation shortages. Who in Scotland is taking responsibility for ensuring that students have access to housing, particularly those under 18 years of all, 18 years old? The real challenge here is that actually I don't think anyone is really taking responsibility for this and that 12% statistic, 12% of all students in Scotland right now have been homeless at some point in their studies. That's the scale of the crisis that we're currently seeing but the nature of that homelessness because often it presents itself in the form of things like sofa surfing. It means that often those students aren't registering as homeless for instance with the local authority, often institutions don't know that that student is homeless because the student doesn't know where to turn to and so they're having to rely on things like sofa surfing. I think what we need to see is first of all we need to see, as I said before, an acknowledgement from universities that they need to increase the amount of provision of student accommodation that they're providing that's quality and affordable when they're increasing student numbers in order to make sure that both students have got somewhere to live but we also need to see support from the Scottish Government as well, particularly around things like rent freeze, rent controls but also increasing things like student support packages financially because, as I said, right now often the amount of student finance that a student receives is actually lower than their rent for the year and so we know that if students have got more money in their pockets and that rent is lower that means that students will be able to find places to live more easily so we need to see that support from both institutions and from the Scottish Government. Okay, Mary Joven, you're okay. Can we go to questions from Michael Marra because we've got quite a few that want to come in on this theme and then okay, thank you. Excuse me, I'll frog in my throat as well. It's my understanding that there's a legal duty on the Scottish Government to deal with and through them, universities, to make sure that there's accommodation and support for students under the age of 18. Is that something that you would agree with, understand to be the case? I mean that would be my understanding in terms of the money, for instance, that the Scottish Government is giving to universities through the likes of the Scottish Funding Council. I would actually argue that not only does the Scottish Government have that legal duty but that they're currently not getting value for money in terms of the money that they're giving to institutions when you've got students who are homeless and not able to actually focus and often complete their studies because of that situation. Yeah, so there's an emergency issue at this at the moment. People in situations where they can't find accommodation, haven't been withdrawing their courses, completely unacceptable and I think most people would agree with that. I want to ask a couple of questions about the longer term, if that's possible, but why are we here and I think Mary Seniors already touched on some of that, I think, in terms of the business model. It strikes me that universities are caught in a growth cycle where they have to grow and continue to grow to plug those funding gaps. Do you have any confidence that we're not going to just see this situation worse again next year? Is this just a process that we're on and is there any sign that we can get off of this escalator and deal with the problems? I mean, I think Michael Marr is correct. I think, you know, we do have, I guess, an unstable system that's set up and a system where we have winners and losers because, as well, and Ellie mentioned, three institutions, Glasgow, Edinburgh, St Andrews, where we know there's a high number of students. For a number of reasons relating to Covid as well, I think, in terms of intake in 2021 and 2020. But there are other institutions that are actually worried about their student numbers. So that doesn't seem right either because, you know, we want everyone who goes to a university or goes for higher education in Scotland to get, you know, a decent education. But, you know, the system, the system isn't fair. There's winners and losers.  So, you know, it's, it's a really challenging system and I don't see, I guess, where we, when we see inflation, you know, 12 per cent and predicted to be like 18 or whatever it might be next year and the turmoil that we've got, that means that the flat cash, which is in the system right now, is just going to decrease in, decreasing value and institutions, you know, and students and staff are all facing, you know, significant inflationary pressures. You know, and you think how important an institution is going to be because students are going to want to go there to be, to be warm and to be able to, you know, charge their phones and do their work this year because energy is so expensive. So, you know, it's deeply worrying times. And in the years ahead, we're looking at a very significant real terms cut to university funding on the teaching and research side. So, I mean, Ellie, would you think, do you have hope, signs in your members and then yes, that the situation might improve or what level of response do we require, I suppose, is what I'm asking from government to try and lead a change in the situation? I think that actually, without a significant change in direction, I don't actually see the situation improving. I think we're going to end up stuck in the same cycle that we've seen year after year after year. I mean, we were talking earlier on about accommodation and housing. This isn't a new problem. We actually see it every single year. And it's certainly worse this year because of the cost of living crisis. But it's by no means a new problem. And it is only going to continue and get worse without a change in direction. So, for instance, we're seeing, I believe it's a 37.4% cut in real terms over 10 years in terms of university teaching grants. And according to Universities Scotland, this academic year, universities got £1,000 less to spend on each student's undergraduate education compared with 2014-15 academic year. I mean, that is a huge cut. And so, what we're seeing is two key things. First of all, is that universities are having to look, as Mary said, more to our UK students and international students, fee-paying students, in order to subsidise home students' undergraduate education. And it's great to see more international students coming to Scotland to study, but not when they're being used as cash cows. And that's the level of exploitation that we're currently seeing. And then the other thing that I think is really key right now is that we're also seeing universities being forced to make cuts to things like student association, student support, those sort of budgets as well. And certainly what we're seeing from the trade unions as well is the staffing paying conditions are also going down or not increasing, those real term cuts as well. And as NUS Scotland, we understand and stand in solidarity with the likes of the trade unions as they do demand, rightfully so, pay increases and improve teaching conditions, not just because we often say, as NUS Scotland, that staff's working conditions are students' learning conditions. And that's really, really important, but also because actually a lot of students who are maybe in postgraduate who are both students and staff are seeing really, really poor conditions, tenuous contracts, and really just horrific conditions actually to be working in. I know some of the points you've made there, Ellie, will be brought up later on, so don't think we're discounting what you're saying. We've got a flow today. Can I move to Stephen Kerr for questions now, please? Thank you. The question I'd like to ask Ellie is in relation to the subject we've just been covering. Are you aware, what do you expect to happen with the rent freeze? I mean, you know that all international studies and experience shows that the rental sector will shrink with a rental freeze. Do you realise that? I don't think it is fair to say that that's going to have an impact in terms of, for instance, student accommodation provision. I don't think that if there is, for instance, a rent freeze and landlords aren't able to increase the amount of money that they're currently taking away from students who are in extreme poverty right now, they're not going to be leaving the sector, and if they do, then those houses aren't going to be going anywhere. Thank you. Do you refute the evidence of international experience in relation to rent freeze? Fair enough. There are 1,400 fewer Scottish students studying this year in Scotland's universities. That's what University of Scotland's Scotland says. Can I have your reaction to that, Ellie? Sir, can you just repeat that, please? 1,400 fewer Scottish students were able to get into university this year, this academic year, because of the cap that universities have put on Scottish places. Can I have your reaction to that? I think that, as Mary addressed earlier on, we're seeing in some places, like, for instance, Glasgow, Edinburgh, St Andrews, we're seeing huge increases in the number of students that elsewhere. No, that's the number of students, I'm talking about Scottish students. Well, either way, we're seeing increases in the number of students overall. If we're seeing a decrease in Scottish students, then I think that's a shame that there's fewer Scottish students. Well, it's more than a shame. 1,400 Scottish students who qualify to go to university can't go to university. It's more than a shame, surely. NUS must feel stronger than that. Mr Kerl, sorry. This section was on student experience, and I'm just… Well, that's what I'm trying to focus on, convener, but I'll take your guidance. Okay. If you don't mind, that's a little bit too pointy. If you just put… We're looking at the student experience and dealing with… Well, can I then ask about the reported stories on Glasgow University where students have been told that they should pause or not turn up for their studies this academic term? Is that true and how many students are affected by that? Can I then also ask you how many took up the education ministers offer to contact his ministerial office if they don't have accommodation? Well, I'll briefly address your first point around fewer Scottish students, which we've talked a little bit about the fact that universities are having to look to international students, our UK students, in order to subsidise those students who are currently Scottish undergraduate home students. That, I think, is evidence of the wider problem around the marketisation of education in students, and universities being forced to exploit international students ultimately as cash cows in order to be able to fund Scottish students. On the point around what we're currently seeing at the University of Glasgow, for instance, the point around… I don't have specific figures. Is it true? I believe it is true. I've heard directly from a number of students who are saying that they are going to have to drop out because they just can't find accommodation in Glasgow. That's anecdotal in terms of students who have reached out to me specifically. What contact have you had with the Scottish higher education minister, Jamie Hepburn, whom I referred to earlier? We all agree that he is a Scottish Government responsibility. What contact have you had with him and what has he said to you and how many people has he been able to help? I'm meeting with Jamie Hepburn this afternoon, so I can certainly let you know after I've had that meeting with him this afternoon, and I certainly hope that he will be giving us some solutions to this issue. That's why I look forward to him now knowing some of the questions that you'll be asking, so Mr Hepburn can be fully prepared for that. I now move on to questions from Ruth Maguire. Thank you, convener. Good morning, panel. Thanks for being with us this morning. I want to ask about the cost of living crisis. I've got a specific example of a constituent of mine who's studying at the University of Dundee to be an educational psychologist. That cohort receives a living costs grant, so it will be slightly different to other students. He's spoken to me about the fact that they work four days a week for a local authority. During that time, they're not classed as students, so they're taxed on their living support grant, and they also don't receive any other student benefits, for example, reduction in council tax. The bit that I think perhaps applies to all students is what he tells me that impact is on this, in terms of students being forced to turn down placements or opportunities due to lack of funds for travel, petrol, et cetera, and says that some are actually choosing not to travel to lectures because of the financial hardship that they're facing. I wonder if I could hear from Ellie First just your reflections on what your members are telling you about the impact it's having on their ability to study in particular. First of all, thank you for sharing that example. It absolutely breaks my heart hearing it, but it's not an isolated case, and it is something that we're seeing all across the sector with so many students. In fact, we did some research earlier this year in US Scotland on the cost of living. Bear in mind, this was done around Christmas last year, so before this cost of living crisis that we're now seeing even worse now. At that time, 35 per cent of all of the students who we spoke to said that they had considered dropping out of their studies because of their financial situation. 64 per cent said that they'd experienced mental ill health. As a result of financial pressure, 31 per cent had had to rely on things like commercial loans, credit cards, things like clana, and that sort of commercial debt. As you can see from those really high percentages, this isn't the exception. This is starting to become the norm. We also know because student finance packages right now just don't meet the cost of living for students. Students are having to take up significant hours in part-time work alongside their full-time studies.  The clue should be in the name. It's a full-time course. Usually the expectation is full-time hours that you'd be dedicating to that course, so about 35-40 hours a week, but actually we're seeing so many students are having to work things like actually 20-odd hours a week just to be able to make up the money that they need to be able to pay their rent. You can imagine then that the stress of having to sometimes maybe even miss lectures because they've got a shift. If you're in a situation where you happen to make a decision between do I go to that lecture or do I go to work and actually be able to afford my rent, you're always going to pick the shift. That means again that students aren't able to dedicate the time that they need to to their studies. It causes stress. It causes burnout. It means that students aren't able to have any much of a social life actually alongside their studies as well, which we know is really important for both mental well-being and actually part of that sort of university experience that a lot of students are signing up for. It's really, really disappointing. Again, we really need to make sure that students have the money in their pockets to be able to actually survive their university course. I think that's absolutely key if we want to see any sort of long-term difference here. That's helpful. Miriam, do you want to come in? If possible please. I guess I wanted to agree with everything that Ellie said, but when you think about the widening access cohort of students who do need additional pastoral support, one-to-one support, given the pressures upon them to, as Ellie said, have multiple jobs as well to support their studies, I just think that adds to the challenges that we face if we're going to meet those widening access targets and successfully get people through universities when they're worried about what they're going to eat, how they're going to pay, the gas bill, etc. It's deeply worrying. Certainly. Convener, if I may, you spoke there, Ellie, about the impact on mental health and well-being, and I suppose that this will go for staff as well. What are the barriers to supporting students through that? What helps available and what are the barriers? Well, I think certainly funding, as is often the case with a lot of things, is a significant barrier actually as well around things like staff having a training to be able to support students and actually just that awareness as well of what students might be going through. But I think what's really, really key here when we're talking about things like the mental health crisis is the first of all we need to make sure that the support is available on campus. Not only is it available, but it's easy to access. It's well signposted. Students know that it exists and it's actually effective. But actually we need to be tackling these mental health crises at the roots because again, as with a lot of this, otherwise it's just going to be something that we see year after year after year getting worse and worse and worse. And we know from our research that the biggest cause of mental health problems for students right now is that they are worrying about their financial situation. So you can see how it all ties together in terms of the cost of living crisis and student mental health. And actually if students were able to dedicate their full time to their full time course and to not have to stress about whether or not they're going to be able to keep the roof over their head for the remainder of their course of studies, then you would see a natural improvement in student mental health because they're not having to worry about those things. Thank you, that's helpful. And Mary, I suppose, are your members finding that they're having to provide more support? You spoke about the sort of widening access agenda, but I guess it goes in terms of mental health and wellbeing. It'll be across the board. Are they having to do more? Yeah, I mean, I guess a couple of things I'd say in response to your question generally. And the first one being that staff mental health is also an issue. Some research done last year by the education support partnership found that, you know, over half of academic staff were also showing signs of depression too. So when you're vulnerable yourself, it's incredibly difficult to be supporting other people that are vulnerable. I think there's been the promise of more mental health councillors in universities and colleges and, you know, we need more work happening there. And then the other point I was going to make around staff is workloads are incredibly challenging. So to deliver what you're expected to do in terms of lectures, tutorials, you know, the workloads are already spiralling. And, you know, so I absolutely agree that our members do want to give that additional one-to-one pastoral support to people, but all too often they just do not have the capacity to do that.  But then to do the, you know, the emails that are going to come in or the people staying behind or asking for that additional support for all too many people on guaranteed hours contracts at universities, that will be totally unpaid. And, yeah, so it, you know, that's one of the big issues I think we've got. I think colleagues are going to speak further about that. That's great. We're getting some really super contributions and evidence and I really thank you for that. But if possible, can we try and keep everything a little bit more concise? I'm just very aware of the time. Can we pass over now to Ross Greer? Thank you. Thanks, community. One of the main reasons that we're hosting this session is the correspondence that all committee members received from university staff, from UCU members back in the spring about their working conditions. And, Mary, I'm interested in what we can do about this at a Scottish level, given that national bargaining takes place UK-wide. How can we improve conditions for university staff in Scotland through either Scottish Government initiatives or directly at an institutional level? Thanks, Ross. I think that's a really good question. I know our members are really heartened to know that this session is happening today. I think shining a light on the plight of workers in universities is helpful in itself. I think there's two things. I know part of your session is going to look at funding, and whilst I don't want to give universities an excuse for not dealing with the pay, the working conditions, the pension situation, I do think that the fact that the sector is suffering real terms cuts is hampering it, and it's just incredibly worrying looking forward. I mean, we had the comprehensive spending review in May, and I think it was hoped because last year the funding council, one of their recommendations from their review of coherence and sustainability, was about getting certainty, getting multi-year settlements to help institutions to plan, and we thought we might have got that in May. However, it's top line, so it's post-16 educational together, and it's flat cash, so it's incredibly worrying moving forward. So anything that this committee can do to make the case to effectively funding universities I think would be key. I guess the other point is that the Scottish Government is really big on fair work, and so fair work is a concept that this Parliament has an interest in, so looking at how we can do better, because universities should be best practice in terms of employment, but the fact that we have a proliferation of casual contracts in the sector, that we gave you some information that was a wee bit late because we were getting it verified by HESA, the Higher Education Statistics Agency, but it showed that actually we're doing worse in Scotland on a number of the casual contracts, so sending a message to institutions to employ people on better contracts would really help us and our negotiations locally and at a national level. I think the other thing that should be a concern is around the pensions of universities, and for me this is one that could be more easily fixed. So in the older universities, the pre-92 universities, the main pension scheme for academic and related staff is the university superannuation scheme. It's a private scheme, it's a massive scheme because it covers most of the universities in the UK, and in April of this year the scheme and employers pushed through cuts to that pension scheme that mean on average people are losing 35% of their pension each year when they're in retirement, and a massive slash, and it's going to be pension of poverty for so many people, and people are going to be discouraged from moving to the sector, and UCU argued at the time, and we were in dispute, we took industrial action over this issue, and we argued that these cuts did not need to happen because the scheme wasn't in the poor health that the employers and the pension scheme itself were saying. The valuation of the scheme was done on 31 March 2020, that was the time when the markets were at their lowest, Covid had just hit, and it wasn't a good time to value a pension scheme, so the cuts did not need to happen, and they were forced through, but we've seen in subsequent health checks on the scheme that it's actually in good health, and in August it was 1.8 billion surplus in the pension scheme, so this is a dispute, and I think all of those members that wrote to you earlier in the year were really so angry about their pension, and they're getting angrier because they've seen in August that the pension scheme is in 1.8 billion of surplus, so those cuts did not need to happen, and the fact that we're balloting our members over those cuts and continued cuts, it could be easily resolved if employers, and indeed our branch at the University of Glasgow had some really constructive discussions with the principal there, and he recognises that if the valuation that's due in 2023 is as it is now, they're saying, yes, we would return member benefits to members rather than just a slash and burn approach to the pension scheme. Thanks very much, just briefly some very conscious of time you mentioned Scottish Government sending a signal to universities about fair work. Are you talking about a kind of a soft power lobbying approach or using SFC conditionality to take a kind of harder approach to forcing change? I'm interested in identifying what specific steps the UCU would like to see us try to take. I guess we could discuss about how all of those approaches would work. I'm really clear that we've got local disputes and a national dispute, and we negotiate with the employers, and we ought to be able to do better. It's so disappointing that we have a situation where there's proliferation of casual contracts in the sector, so signals from the Government, from the Scottish Funding Council about better employment practice would be incredibly welcome. Thanks, and just one final question for both of you. Do you think that we've got the funding model right insofar as we essentially fund all universities the same on a per student basis, but Glasgow University has about £1 billion in its reserves, Edinburgh's got £1.8 billion in its unrestricted reserves, about £2.8 billion total. Compare that to a number of other universities, your Calais, Abertais and Napier, they don't have that amount. Given the monumental pressure on Scottish Government finances at the moment, is it right that we fund all universities on the same basis, or should we be expecting institutions to have larger reserves than the Scottish Government to be taking a bit of money out of their own pocket to help through what will be a very difficult couple of years? Would you like to go first, Mary? I think that our funding model is failing. The fact that universities and, you mentioned Glasgow and Edinburgh, but these are the ones that, I suppose, are getting more international and rest of UK students to subsidise the rest. I think that the one thing that we want to see, we want to see teaching funding funded for the actual cost that it takes to deliver that teaching per student, and at the minute that isn't happening.  But, as I said earlier, when I see the fact that we're getting flat cash when inflation is at 12%, that's absolutely unsustainable. I know you're going to have University Scotland and the Funding Council on next, and they're pointing out what how this is problematic. The Scottish Government settlement for the next couple of years is also a flat cash settlement, so it's a question of priorities for the Government. I think that the Scottish Government and this committee needs to think about what higher education delivers, and it contributes to so much else in the public sector, in the economy at large. Teachers, doctors, nurses, scientists, and we saw the role of the university sector in the Covid pandemic in terms of the science, the testing, the PPE and all of that. Plus the graduates that come out at the end of the day that are contributing to the economy. I think we've not had serious discussions around taxation in this country and it's obviously deeply worrying to the trade union movement, the decision that the Chancellor made last Friday. Everybody should be contributing to society and we think that universities are fundamental to make the economy better, they make society better, people are healthier because of universities. You're right, they've got to be paid for, but we'd say progressive taxation should be paying for education and where we've got a UK Government that's giving more money to the wealthy and making the poor poorer. It's horrific to think about how public services in England and the knock-on effects for Scotland on the back of the fiscal event that happened on Friday. Do you have time for Ellie's response on reserves? I can only echo what Mary's order is saying. If it's just an echo, then, if you don't mind. Can I move back on to more about the pay, I suppose? Will the failure of the university workers pay to keep pace with inflation, along with the deterioration in working conditions lead to an exodus staff from universities? Do you get a sense of that happening? And what impact would that have on the quality of the education and the student experience? We're certainly worried and we're hearing from members and workers in the sector that are concerned about the drop in pay and that they're considering moving to other sectors. It's a real worry. As we've said in our evidence pay has lost value by up to 25 per cent since 2009. I think it's really acutely hitting people now when we see inflation so high, so it's inevitably going to have an impact. I guess some institutions are already saying that it's difficult to recruit staff, particularly in professional support services, but other areas too. We're seeing staff student ratio, so more students, fewer staff, which is going to have an impact on the student experience too. As we were talking earlier, it's obviously entirely possible to give a lecture to a large group of students, but that one-to-one support and the tutorial classes that you get are so vital, particularly with widening access students, to get them there in the first place, to keep them at university and to keep them engaged and ensure that they're successful. It's deeply worrying the cuts that our members are seeing. That follows on nicely to some questions that we've got from Bob Doris on widening access, if you don't mind. Thank you very much, convener. It's going to sound a bit counterintuitive here, because there are some good stories to tell on widening access. That could be under threat, of course, because of the cost of living crisis and the financial constraints, but just a couple of them are on the record, and that is that we're ahead of our target in relation to getting 20 per cent of those in higher education from SIMD, 20 per cent, and most deprived areas into university. The interim target of 16 per cent was exceeded ahead of time. I should note, and we're talking about universities here, but I think that colleges with the biggest contribution to that 40.9 per cent of that progress came through the college pathway. Record numbers of young people from the most deprived backgrounds at university, without putting words in your mouth, are they under more financial pressure than students more generally? I see the minimum income guarantee, if you like, of the most deprived students, £8,100 a year, but there will be other students out there who don't get those guarantees. Any comments on how universities are taking steps to improve widening access to education despite the current financial climate and what are the dangers going forward to make sure that that's sustainable and that we build on that progress? The statistics around the number of students from winning access backgrounds going to universities is positive. This year, we saw a significant increase in the number of students being offered places at university from those widening access backgrounds. The difficulty is keeping those students and those students actually completing their studies and having had a positive fulfilling university experience, and that I think is where the real concern is, because those students naturally are going to be hit harder by things like the cost of living crisis. Those students are the ones who are likely to have to work more hours on top of their studies in order to be able to pay their rent. Those students might not have, for instance, the lifeline of having parents who are able to fund things like their cost of living if they get into financial difficulty. I think that there's a real worry there that although we're seeing more students going to university from those backgrounds, actually seeing them go through the process and complete their studies is a different thing. Mary, can I ask you when you come in? We'd be really helpful as well if you're aware of anything universities do to target in a supportive way those young people from those deprived areas to support them through their education path, because really good statistics, but Ellie's absolutely right that initial outcome is getting them into university. The overall outcome we're looking for is a successful first degree. I guess the comment I was going to make was about how challenging I think the situation around widening access is right now. I know the commissioner has said this last bit is the toughest, but I also think it's really tough because of where we are with the cost of living, but also on the back of the pandemic. We haven't really spoken very much about the loss learning that people have had. People who started university are starting just now, and I've had an incredibly disrupted school education because of the pandemic and the absences that I've had. There's a lot of learning that universities are going to need to deliver, which is replacing learning that didn't happen for whatever reason in schools because of the pandemic. It would also seem to me that some of those widening access students are going to be at the sharp end of that, plus the mental health crisis that we're experiencing. I suppose to successfully support widening access students through university does take a lot of resource. It takes a lot of people power, but this is at a point where we're saying to you that student-staff ratios have increased, the workload pressures, so universities are trying to do more with less, and that's a real worry. I think that at the end of the day, students are the ones that are going to be losing out. I absolutely get that. There's a staggering figure. Not all those places will have been accepted, of course, but 18-year-olds from the most deprived backgrounds have a 32 per cent increase been offered at a university place since 2019, so this will be a large cohort of young people, a lot of them without a history culture tradition of going to university. They'll be the first in the family, first in the household in doing that. Are you right about the strains that will put on university staff and student support organisations and everything else? Are you aware of anything bespoke that universities are trying to do to support that particular cohort? I acknowledge the financial challenges. I absolutely will talk in the next session about that, but is there any specific initiatives at the university level that you're aware of that they're trying to drill down to that particular cohort to offer that extra support? I'm sure there are. In my role as a trade union official, given all the things that we're dealing with—I'm sorry, I don't have the detail to give you there—possibly that the University of Scotland might be better placed, either to answer today or another time. I'll ask them in the next session. Can we move on to some questions now from Graham Day, please? Thank you, convener, and good morning. I think that we've covered many of the questions that I might have wanted to ask. I want to touch on this from the perspective that we've only really fleetingly engaged on. I don't doubt the merits of the cases that both of you make on behalf of your members. It's not that I question your right to come along here today and call for greater funding for those interests, but with rights come responsibilities, I would contend. We've heard asks, convener, around better pay for staff and increases in grants and bursaries, but all those have to be paid for. We've acknowledged that that does considerable pressure on the Scottish Government budget, which is only going to increase in the years to come. Each of you, from where the funding would come to meet those asks, are we talking about looking elsewhere in the education budget and making cuts there? Are we talking about cuts to social security budget, justice, net zero, for example? Mary Sr, you indicated that a progressive taxation approach would be the answer to that, but you also appreciate that there will be other areas of education that would contend that they are worthy recipients of the fruits of that approach. Colleges, for example, told us last week that there is less money coming to them per student in the university sector. It's a difficult question, but I want to pose that to both of you, because in the real world the money has to come from somewhere. Mary Sr, perhaps? I suppose that I would say that it's not really our role to say that, but you're right. I would look to taxation and I would also say that the Scottish Parliament does have tax-raising powers and it can look at other priorities. I suppose that I would also look at the small business bonus. That's an area that the trade unions have questioned its merits. I would also reflect that, partly, universities could make some better decisions around their own spending. Certainly, when you look at salaries of those at the top, you know, I think that we could make better choices. I think that when we also look at some of the campuses that we see overseas—New York, Dubai, those sorts of places—you know, I think that better decisions could be made there. But, you know, I think that it's absolutely right that the Scottish Government has taken the decision to provide tuition for Scottish domiciled students. Absolutely, 100 per cent support that decision. However, it needs to be properly funded and, at the minute, it isn't. You know, that's a real cause of concern. The Federation of Small Business might have a different view on the small business bonus to yourselves. Ellie Gomersall? I would once again echo what Mary Sr says. I think that particularly those points around universities also have a responsibility to think about where they're making priorities. However, the Scottish Government has those same decisions to make, and we're here to advocate for our members. I think that when you look at the number of students who have been, for instance, homeless and the really depressing figures here around mental health, I think that that absolutely has to be a priority for the Scottish Government. But you're not telling us what you would de-prioritise then to meet those priorities? I think that that's the responsibility of the Scottish Government to make those decisions. So, in other words, just find the money from wherever? Well, no. I think that we've talked, for instance, about things like progressive taxation. I think that when ultimately we're talking about prioritisation here, and what I would advocate for is that education should be a really high priority for the Scottish Government. Student mental health homelessness should be a really high priority for the Scottish Government. I'm not going to sit here and tell the Scottish Government what decisions they need to make around what else they're going to do that's not related to education. I'm here to talk about education and to advocate for our members and where that money needs to go. Thank you. We've got some questions keeping on this theme from Mr Rennie and then followed on by Stephanie Callahan. Wille Rennie, please? I was impressed with your answer to Mr Dane. I think that you're quite right to be on his place. It's up to the Government to come up with the answers to these things, not the union representatives. But it doesn't seem to be a very happy place. This morning you've talked about homelessness, shortage of student accommodation, very expensive student accommodation. We've talked about problems with student finance, severe problems, staff pay, staff pension, staff contract, staff ratios. This is quite a dark place in universities. We've prided ourselves in having some of the best universities, not just in Britain but across the world. Do you think that status is under threat if these issues aren't resolved? I think that we can quite rightfully be proud of the likes of free undergraduate education for Scottish students. That's really positive. Is it free? This is the point. The tuition is free, but in reality, for a lot of those students who are facing things like dropping out, that statistic over a third of all students have considered dropping out because of their financial situation, that's an embarrassingly high statistic, I would argue. When you look at the likes of that 12% figure of students who have been homeless, that is an embarrassingly high figure. When you also look at, for instance, where the universities are having to make their money, for instance, by charging ridiculously high tuition fees for the likes of international students, I think that's also embarrassing. I think that if we want an education system that we can be really, really proud of, it has to be one that is accessible to anyone who wants an education because ultimately education should be a right that anyone lifelong can access. I think that the current situation that we're in right now presents a real threat to so many students who should be, quite rightfully, really excited to be going to university for the first time and instead are going to be met with an experience that's shaped by poverty and stress and mental health problems, and I just think that that's a really grim situation for Scotland students to be in. Yeah, no, I mean, it's a really good point and I think the failure to value staff in the sector is deeply worrying and has the potential to undermine that reputation. I think with the work that universities do, sort of teaching, education, research, knowledge exchange, student support, all of that, which is key to what they do, is delivered by people. So, to not invest in people and instead to see real terms pay cuts, to see their pensions slashed, the workloads, the pay inequality, the fact that we've got gender, race, pay gaps, as well as the casualisation, yeah, it's really going to be undermining to what universities do. Okay, that's fine. Okay, thank you. Stephanie Callaghan, please. Thank you very much, convener, and thanks for coming along this morning. Mary, I think that we've already spoken a bit about reflation, meaning that flat cash has decreased in value, and that, like Ross, I've got huge sympathy, but there really is no getting away from that fact that the Scottish Government's budget is also fixed, and the reality of the Scottish Government's limited powers over taxation means that increasing university budgets means cutting to other budgets as well. So, the wider impact on student experience as well of cuts, whether it's to health, social care, transport, whatever else it happens to be, these things too are going to have an impact on student health, mental health and wellbeing, as well as the rest of society. And Mary also said as well that the reality that international students are plugging the funding gap, so what are the biggest risks then around that shift in majority funding from FSE to international and UK student fees? What risks is it that that really presents for Scotland's universities and students? I think it's the staff-student ratio issue, the fact that we've got fewer staff delivering education to more students. Inevitably, at some point, there's a tipping point that that quality isn't going to be as good, and students are expecting one-to-one support, they're expecting that their lecturer or tutor has time to mark their essays, and when we actually tell them, well, some of the people that are employed to teach you to mark your work, they don't actually have enough time to spend reading the work that you do and marking it. That's going to be a problem. So that reputation is going to be dipping and international students are going to be questioning why should we come here if we're not going to receive the high quality of education that we expect. Clearly, we don't want that to happen. We want, and our members want, to deliver high quality education, but the pressures that they're under around workloads, the guaranteed hours contracts, as I say, that don't give them sufficient time to deliver all the support that students expect. To have the 15-minute chat after a lecture or tutorial, when you're not paid for that, it's tough. I think international students are going to start recognising why we are backfilling, backfunding the education of Scottish Darmistall students too. I would say that our statistics around international students are pretty good at the moment as well just now. Early mentioned earlier on, I think it was in our opening statement about the increase in overall student numbers. At point 22, the submission of the Scottish Funding Council does accept that increase in teachers budgets is largely as a result of those increases in average price paid per student. However, it also suggests that protecting the price per place would impact the number of funded places. I'm wondering what changes if any would you recommend within the current fiscal constraints, of course, for the SFC to get the balance right between price per place and the number of funded places? Maybe I'll ask that one to Ellie first, and if you want to add anything, Mary. Yeah, I think at the moment, as Mary noted around the international student paying absolutely sky-high fees and are obviously coming and that is having to subsidise the cost of Scottish students places. But what we're seeing is that international students actually, although there are requirements, for instance, from the home office around the amount of finance that the international students have to have in order to come here, actually we are seeing a lot of international students who are facing some of the same challenges around the cost of living as home students, particularly with these huge increases recently. I think that the reliance at the moment on international students having to come and pay really, really high fees for education. We believe that education should be a human right for all, not just Scottish students, but for international students as well. It's a positive thing for international students to come to Scotland and get their education. But right now, the fact that the entire funding model relies on those fees that they're paying is unfair to both Scottish students and to those international students, so clearly we need to move to a model where all places are fully funded regardless of whether you're an international student or a Scottish student. It needs to be fully funded by the Scottish Government. I appreciate what you're saying there around the cost of living crisis. It's been such a huge issue. However, that doesn't really answer the question about what does it do to get that balance right between the price per place and the number of funded students that we've got in the current fiscal constraints? I think that we need to obviously, at the moment, we've talked about the fact that there's really significant constraints financially on everyone, but I think that we need to look at increasing the amount of investment that we're making in education. I think Mary touched on this earlier about just how significant and important education is as a sector. I mean, when you think about things like healthcare, primary teaching, secondary teaching, things like that as well, all of those new teachers and nurses and doctors are going through education, so clearly it needs to be somewhere that we are investing more money in the first place so that our education system in Scotland can be as fantastic as it should be. Thank you, Ellie. I think that Mary Senior would like to respond as well, thanks. I don't think that I've got anything to say around how the funding council allocates funding to criticise what they do. I think that what I would want to say is that I think that Governments and UK and Scottish Governments need a bit of a reality check around their expectations of universities, of public services and public service workers and what they're expecting them to deliver and the resources they're actually giving them, because it's absolutely unsustainable. I don't want to be sitting here and arguing to cut other vital services to the benefit of universities, because we need a bigger pie, and I think that Government needs a real reality check that if we're expecting all of these things to happen in universities, we're putting the same demands on the NHS, but we're actually not drawing in the funding to deliver that. We saw last week in the fiscal event that the Chancellor is making tax cuts and borrowing money, which doesn't seem to be adding up. I think that if we want a decent university system, we need to fund it properly and value the people that deliver that education. If it can be really concise, Stephanie, please. Certainly, I would agree that the Scottish Government could be doing with a much bigger pie as well. I think that that would be a huge help. Thank you, Stephanie, concise, please. How helpful is the resource spending trajectory for the next four years, and is there anything around climate that you want to mention? I would say that the resource spending review was really brutal and deeply worrying. I said earlier that one of the good recommendations from the funding council's review last year was this call for multi-year spending allocations to help universities plan, because, after all, the average degree in Scotland is four years. For the last decade, we've had just annual funding settlements. It's incredibly difficult to plan, and multi-year spending allocations could be helpful for universities. It could also help in terms of pay settlements. We could explore multi-year pay settlements, but the reality of what we saw in May, because it was top line. It covers universities and colleges, so we don't have greater clarity. It was flat cash. When inflation is 12 per cent, it's really worrying for the sector. Just at that time, when we get in increased pressures, we're seeing that funding is dipping. Thank you, Mary. Michael Marra has a supplementary on this quickly before we move to co-cav structure. I agree with the comments about the Doomsday cult and Westminster and the budget approach that they're taking. One of the reasons that the Scottish Government has a big gap in its funding is because of its failure to grow the Scottish economy—hundreds of millions of pounds in lost tax revenue. You've talked about a bigger pie. How important are universities to growing the size of the Scottish economy and growing our tax receipts? Fundamental, I would say. I know my colleagues in University of Scotland have much more evidence about that, but just seeing what a thriving university can contribute to the local economy in terms of the staff and the students, but also the wider reach that universities have because, as we've already said, they are training and educating the teachers, the lawyers, the nurses, the doctors, the architects, people that keep society going. Investing in universities is investing in the long term. I would like to celebrate the amazing work that universities do in the area of research, in particular, so I'm going to ask a couple of questions around research. If I could get an idea of what the current experience of postgraduate researchers is in this particular climate, we know that the Scottish funding council has identified a gap in research funding. Initially, I would like to know what postgraduate experience is of that. Ellie, do you want to go first? Absolutely. I really feel for a lot of our postgraduate students at the moment, because they are bearing the brunt of the worst of both worlds. They are experiencing the same cuts and the same horrific pressures on the cost of living as other students, and finding it again difficult to secure things like accommodation and those mental health statistics and things like that include postgraduate students as well and are just really, really difficult to see. Equally, a lot of those students are on things like precarious contracts. They are not receiving the pay again that they need to be able to survive, and so you're stuck in this situation where you're finding all of these difficulties that, for instance, I've been raising earlier around the difficulties and the cost of being a student, but then also those additional difficulties of being a worker in precarious contracts. I certainly know a large number of postgraduate students who are also having to find other part-time work in addition to their research. Just also to note around that we were talking just there about the resource spending review, and I'm sure that University of Scotland will talk about this more later, but their statistics by 2024 to 2025 were looking at real terms cuts to the research budget by 37.8%. I mean that is a horrific size cut, and again we're talking about the value and importance of education, education being an investment in the long term, and research is absolutely key to that, so it's a really, really worrying figure to see. Thank you. Mary, sorry, go ahead. Yeah, I just to echo some of the comments that Ellie's made, and I think all too many sort of postgraduate researchers are in that sort of vague space that they're not entirely students, they're not sometimes also considered a staff, so that's really challenging. So the financial, you know, being able to make ends meet, really challenging, you know, the pressures around work as well, and the pressures to deliver teaching or to deliver aspects of work if you're not being fully paid to do that is difficult, but I do have a good news story for you, because in October, so that's a few days time, UKRI is going to be increasing the PhD stipend by 10% on the back of campaigning that UCU has done, so that is for PhD that are under the UKRI, but so that's not across the piece though, but yeah, it's a big campaign for UCU at the moment to get postgraduate researchers fully recognised as staff, so that they get more benefits and protections, but yeah, it's an important point. Do you think that there's, could the universities be supporting the research students any further? I mean, I know what Glasgow University, I've visited sort of facilities and there's amazing joint work going on between charities in partnership, could that be expanded in any way, do you think? Yeah, I mean, I think we could do a lot more and I think it links into the comments around addressing like casual and precarious contracts and ensuring that people are paid for the work that they do and they're clear on the work that, you know, they're paid for the development work that they're doing, so yeah, there's a lot more that could be done to support postgraduate researchers. Okay, thank you very much, thank you. That's absolutely super and look at that prompt timing. Thank you for your time today, Ellie and Mary, that we are going to now have a 10 minute suspension to allow for a change in witnesses. Thank you very much for coming along.