Following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Now Larry Pezzavento. Okay folks, I'm going to talk a little bit about the corn market, the beans and the wheat here because I think we've reached a level that we probably should pay attention to, especially from my perspective, I posted a chart, a long-term weekly chart of the corn there at 492 where we bought it. The low was 491. We're now trading about 16 cents higher than that, that's about $800. We're break even now and I posted the smaller timeframe 15 minutes behind it just to show you the action that's going on. The reason why I want to spend some time here folks is this was a life-changing pattern for me because after I'd lost my money in 74, I studied from the end of 74 through the beginning of 1975 and that's when I saw a pattern like this in the soybean oil and also in soybeans. I used soybean oil because the margin was only $150 to buy a spread in July-Dease oil so it didn't cost very much at all and it worked very well and that paid me pretty good. But the reason why it's important is Gartley on page 222 of his book that cost $1,500 back in 1937 basically said that this is what you should look for, watch for an ABCD pattern in an uptrend or sell an ABCD pattern in a downtrend and that's what the Gartley is all about. So page 222 of that book. So all I do is I look for those patterns and that's what I've taught people over the years to do. The reason why this is different folks is because there's a whole bunch of them happening at the same time. We've got beans, oil, meal, wheat and corn all looking at the same thing and the whole world is bearish. So maybe they're going to be bearish. I don't know but they've hit some major points here. This was a life-changing pattern for me folks because I caught it right and I wrote it up. I got outright and Drexel Burnham said, gee, you really know what you're doing. Heck, they didn't realize. I told them before I ever took the job that, hey, I lost a lot of money and they laughed. He says, well, that's what's going to prevent you from doing it again. I said, yeah, I hope so. But that was really the whole reason. I knew what I did wrong. I added to losing positions. I never used to stop. I was making so much money I didn't care. If you drop 30, 40 grand, I'll make that back and then the next day you drop 30, 40 more granted. I'll make that back and then you drop 50 grand. I'll make that back pretty soon. It's a good-by-house, good-by-car, good-by-boat, good-by-wife. That took an extra 16 years. But anyway, this is what you want to be watching folks. I'm going to be spending a lot of time with this each day looking at these patterns as the unfold. I'm going to go through a few of them here with you just to show you where we are because it's a spot where you can really, really make some serious money. Now, let's the next one we're going to look at here is going to be the wheat market. And this is a perfect example of markets that go absolutely wacko out of control. Folks, remember last June when we were back up here and it was limit up and you couldn't buy wheat because it was none for sale. The only wheat was going to be in the Smithsonian. Well, it went from 13 to under six folks. There was your 382 retracement here. So that's why you want to be a chartist. See, during 1972, 73, 74, I bought all these dips, okay? That's a lot of money. You know, starting with 30 grand, I ran it up quite a bit and then I ran it down. And when I got down to here, okay, I was in negative balance, but I paid so much commission. My balance was 2700 minus. I waited until I found a nice trade in pork bellies. I made three grand and I didn't trade for a year. All I did was study this pattern. That's all I did. And that's where I got the idea for the Gartley. I called it a Gartley because it was on page 222 of that book. And that's why I made it famous. The book was then published in 1983 by Billy Jones from Lambert Gamm Publishing. He came down to my office. He happened to be one of my customers. He said, what, I'm looking for a book to publish. And I said, get this one. And Gartley had died in 69 and they were fighting over his estate and he was able to buy the rights to that book and printed it. And it has been pretty good. I think it's available for $155 now, but it was 1500 back in 1937. At that time, it was a three ring binder with all the charts and stuff. But he was the he was the fellow that did more work on technical analysis during those years than anybody else.  Gann, this dog, Elliot, you know, Elliot wasn't around very much because he died relatively young, as I believe. We have the same birthday, July 28th, but he passed away relatively quickly. So anyway, this is the kind of thing that we're looking at now with the wheat. You know, we had a heck of a run in that first part of the wheat, but then it's broken down again. And it made a really nice ABCD this morning, very early in the morning, like two or two in the morning at 598. It's rallying a nickel or dime doesn't really mean very much, but we've got to watch some of these others. And one that Mr. Z came on, John Shevney is probably one of the best grain traders you're going to find in your life. But here is the chart for the let me get the daily up here so we can see it very, very clearly. And we'll get this moving around hold on right here. You'll be able to see the soybean chart here for the November's. And this is new crop beans, folks. These are the beans that are just being planted. OK, and you'll see here that we have the bottom forming in here. I wanted it to get just a tiny bit lower here, about 10 cents. And so far, this not happened. So I'm still still looking at that potential to get down one more time. And that will be the expansion of this ABCD leg down there at 1162. I'll try to be a buyer at 1165. But look how much this has gone down, folks. It's dropped $2 a bushel, mainly because Chinese grain traders who are the best in the world know that we have an excess of grain coming in. And so what do they do? They pull all their buy orders to get the prices even lower. And then what they'll do is they'll buy it all the way up, even though it's a lot cheaper than it was before. So those fellows over there in China know how to trade the grains, believe me, they do. So anyway, this is what we're watching. If you can see this November chart, it also has a three drive to a bottom pattern. So that's on our watch list. Now, last night when I was watching it happen, I wasn't up at two in the morning, but I was up at four. And at four, I'd seen the market at Arleigh Rally back quite a bit. And it already made a 3-8 to retracement of about 10 cents and then took off for another 15 cents to the upside. So that's another sign that the bullishness that I'm looking at here may be something that we want to pay attention to. That's the real key to seeing what we're watching here today. So that happens to be the November soybeans. Now, I want to switch over here to the new crop soybean oil. Let me get this up here and we will get this up here on the weekly. Hold on one second. I've got to draw the thing disappeared. So I've got to draw it in again. You'll see where we are here. Again, this is the July soybean oil. This is old crop soybean oil that's in the bins and they're selling it as we speak. And you can see how much it's come down. We'll be right back<PHONE_NUMBER>. 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Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Okay, folks, I posted a chart of the July soybean oil. This is the old crop soybean oil. That soybean oil is for paint and margarine and so many things. It's used also for energy. But if you'll notice here on the far right where the 61% retracement is 4862 and it's trading right now 4878. Now that means it's made a 61% retracement on the weekly chart. That's an ABCD. That is a Gartley pattern. Gartley said, if you can find an ABCD in the bull market, buy it. Okay, now if you go back into the middle of this chart, I'm going to hopefully be able to show it to you here. There was another ABCD right here, back here about a year and a half ago. Another perfect ABCD. This one is the big daddy rabbit. This is the big one right here. Not only that, but the whole world's bearish now and they should be because this stuff's been going down. Look, we each went from 1370 per bushel down to 596 per bushel. Are you kidding me? That's drought type stuff, folks. I mean, give me a break. And I tried to, you know, well, doesn't make any difference. When you see those limit up moves like that, limit up leads to limit down. All it does is distribute the amount of stuff that you got out there and that's why you want to be, you know, really, really careful of what you're doing. So let's move on here and get another one that I want to show you and that'll give us a pretty good idea of where we are because here's one. I want to get this one on the weekly also so that you'll be able to see it. It's another one that has a really good, really good chance of doing something good. Hold on one second here. And you'll be able to see it as we draw it in here. Hold on just a minute. This happens to be the July soybean meal. Now the member when you're trading soybeans, 80% of the bean is the meal. That's 80%. The other 20% is the soybean oil. Come on, stop it, will you? Sorry, folks, this thing is a darn sensitive. I got to get it moving in the right direction. So hold on. I want to go back from the low that we made back here way over a year ago. And as you can see, as you put this in here, we made a 50% retracement here overnight. And so this is also another one that is going to be very, very interesting.  See that and boom, away it went. This is the big one, folks, because we had this big move up. And the one thing, folks, they can move that soy, the crude oil stuff around quite a bit. You got to remember about one thing, folks. Crude oil is indigestible. So food, people have to have that. So there's going to be a demand for food here some today. And if this is the spot and we start getting any type of bad weather due to this potential Heldinio current that's out there in the South Pacific right now, then that could be. What that does is it heats up the water. The water goes up and boom, you get a tremendous amounts of rain or no rain at all. It just depends on how it refers. It used to be anchovies. It used to be out there. They used to follow the anchovies things. And when the anchovies were not there, that meant that the water was too warm. They had to go to cooler water and that was all part of Heldinio. That was stuff that I was learning way back in the 60s and 70s with Dave Nelson, Oscar McClure, Steve Earl Hatterney and Jim Sibbot. Anyway, those are some of the fundamental things that I did, but I don't do fundamentals anymore. For example, here's a look at the chart. Is it prices are going up? There's more buyers. If prices are going down, there's more sellers. And that's what you want to remind ourselves of why we're doing these things. They're very, very important. So those are the main ones that I'm looking at of that. I'll be following all of the new crop corn, old crop corn, all that stuff. But look at this one here, folks. This is one. I don't know what Coco is doing today, but Coco has been making a three drive to a top pattern here. And you'll see there's where we are. We're right up here where I don't know if Coco is up or down today. But look at this beautiful, there was a three drive to a top pattern here. It dropped 10% right into this low, which was a 382 off of the low right here. And boom, here we are. We've completed the major A, B, C, D pattern in Coco. And that's a pretty big move. And I don't know what I will do. And what I can do is I will bring up Coco right now and find out if, in fact, Coco is moving higher today. And that will be a sign that this pattern has failed. And whereas the old Coco, here it is. Let's move it over a little bit and we'll put that up here.  You know what, boys and girls, sometimes this stuff really does work. I just totally amazes me. Here's the Coco today down quite a bit. You can see from the high we made that. Match the high last night and we have a pretty big break right here. Beautiful. One, two, three drive to a top pattern spot on and then boom. That means we should get a move like this in Coco.  That's quite a bit in Coco. I did not put a Coco trade on and I don't intend to put one on ever. That's their main thing. So I'm just giving you some patterns to see how they're running and how they're moving around. We've got one other. This one is not through the fate of heart, folks, but it's the hog market and it's traded quite a bit. But let's get this up here. So because we're almost there in the, oh my goodness, almost there is the understatement of the year. We're making right near new lows on the day here. But remember, these sometimes fail, so don't go yelling and screaming if you take a loss because you got to put a stop in. But here's where we're going to be looking at here in the lean hogs and it won't be today, but it will probably be tomorrow. I'll update this on the show, on the videos tonight, but there's your ABCD pattern. This is like the upside down version of Coco, folks. That's all it is. You see these red boxes that I mark like that? That means you've got a double 1.618 number in here. You've got this one and you've got this one. That's double 1.618. That's the end of the Fibonacci spiral. That's mother, god, and country, folks. You buy it there, you risk a few hundred bucks and you're going to be right for a considerable amount like we were here. Remember, we bought that one, sold that. We didn't go short, but we got out there. And now here's the big one coming in right now, down at this level, down about another penny in the piggies. So pay attention to that. I'll be doing a special video on that as we go through looking at some of these today. But remember, pigs trade, the lean hogs are traded very, very extensively by the commodity funds that run the mutual funds for, what not mutual funds, but the professional traders for commodities that put it into a group of hogs are traded, cattle are traded, you know. So they're very active, big open interest. So that's easy to do. Hey, I'm going to take a break.<PHONE_NUMBER>. Gold report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The gold report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The gold report. 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For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Folks, I'm going to post a chart here of something we haven't seen. Oh, we've got a caller from Palm Harbor, Florida. Jim, what can we do for you, my friend? Larry, it's amazing when the real world gets out of the way you're trading, but I missed your segment for the last hour and a half and I know you were going to be talking about the grains and my question is I had a bad entry. I bought the corn at $495. We had that run all the way up to $510. I took the stop at $502 because I figured I'm going to pocket the $300. I was waiting for a re-entry and unfortunately it was last night before midnight or up to midnight. I did not have a buy order to re-enter and so now we've gone up $0.89. So do you just forget about? No. The horse has already taken off? No, you don't forget about that one. No, this is a big one. You don't forget about that one. What you want to do is be patient. Wait for a 61% pullback or a 382, whatever you can. Remember, you made $0.07. You've got a $0.07 cushion, right? Well, I know I got stopped up and took my profit. I wanted to get back in. You made what you make almost $700 then? Well, see, my entry was bad. I was not at $490 where you were. I was at $496. Okay, so you still did okay. Okay, now write that number down that you just made, okay? So that's going to be your risk factor. So you're going to be in risk-free. So by the first 382 retracement that we've just had from the $0.96 up to $0.06, that's about $0.04 lower by the corn. Put your stop in and below the low at $492. And if it's right, it's going to be fine. What we've got to do, Jim, and this is what I'm going to be doing when I do the videos, is I've got to try to plan so that the people can start to add to this. First of all, the margin is not that great. And if we're right, and this is a major, major one, we want to add several contracts on the way up because that's when you start, you know, you can really start making a lot of money. When you add what you have to do is you've got to, you know, keep your stops at a reasonable point so that you're not increasing your risk exposure. In other words, you've got profits made. You're willing to risk some of those profits to add to position to make more profits. This is what we did on the way down in the bond market. So that's what we want to try to do. But this is just starting, Jim, so don't shake it off. This might make it might go down and touch that low one more time. We don't know. So just be prepared and be patient. There's nothing wrong with that. Yeah, and it is extremely thin, as we know, all the way up until usually, you know, five, six o'clock in the morning. You know, it's dead. So you get some sleep. I guess that's one advantage between the 96. Well, sleep is very overrated, my friend, actually. You know, I've been sleeping on four or five hours a night since I was a little kid. My mom told me that I would wake up at three in the morning and play with my toys until they came to get me. She said, I never whined. I never, you know, well, she was my mother. So what do I know? But anyway, and I've been that way. I was an altar boy. I would go to the re-rectory and wake up the priest, you know, to get ready and everything. I'd get the, you know, everything done. Those were all during the years when I was just a kid, you know, and from the fourth grade to the eighth grade. So I've been going without them. When I got into college, I was a scrub nurse at the hospital from 11 to 7, 11 at night to 7 in the morning. Then I went to school. I'd sleep two or three hours in the afternoon and go back to work. So I've been living off lack of sleep for a long time. My doctor says to me, he says, I don't know how you've lived this long. I still feel okay. That's good. And then one, I mean, have you talked about the bond yet today? No, not yet. No, if you have a chance in the next 25 minutes, it'd be great to overview that because I see now I look right at that 126 and a half. We are at the proverbial moment of truth. And when we get finished here, which will be in about 30 seconds, I'm going to post the bond and show the folks because that's the only way we have a small loss in. But I want to show you what we're looking at because this is at the moment of truth too. So that'll be an interesting one to look at. If that support would fail, would you go on to enter on a short side? No, I don't sell the note. Once I have a losing trade, I shake it off and I might, might sell them 20 minutes later, but not. No, don't reverse. No. Okay. All right. Thanks. Thanks for your input. Have a great day, Jim. And stay tuned. I'm going to cover bonds next. Okay. Thank you. I will. I know, hold on folks. Let me get the old bond chart up here. And I think I know where it is. It's hidden over there in the corner somewhere. Oh, I went a different layout. Just a second. I've got to, it's amazing this stock market's holding up that it wants to blow off one more time. So we're going to see what happens to it. Hold on. Oh, I've lost data. Give me one second here, folks. I've got to get this data corrected and then throw it right at where is our bond. Dolly's, okay, just a second here. They've hidden from me again. And I want to get this bond chart up because it's an important one for a lot of different reasons because that is going to be a big factor on whether we do this or not. And let's get the daily up and you'll see why we bought it and where it sets. And it's still valid. But here's the bond chart folks. You'll see we have the Gartley pattern down there at 172.02. I bought it a little too early 172.10. Our stop is right below this 170.126.10. If we get stopped out, then we have to wait. But they're just like the corn chart. It's an ABCD Gartley. The time down in the AB leg equals a time down in the CD leg, everything set up.  I bought it at 127.10. And then it went down. It rallied up to 127.26. And then we're right at the 1.618 right now. So the risk on that is right at 126.10. We get that. We move away and there's nothing else we can do about it. And that's the low so far has been 127.126.20. So it were last 126.29. So it's not out very much. It's only out $300. But you don't like to be out $300. We're in something that you'd like to see make money. And it's not happening. But the fact that the stock market is holding up so incredibly well, we're right not too far from the highs of days here at 42.14 in the S&P. And when we've got these earnings coming out tonight, this does not look like a bearish market right now. So we'll see. That's all I can tell you. And that's all I know. OK, one other one, copper. Someone asked a question about copper. Here again, we're seeing a market to this setting perverbally at the old. I don't know if proverbial is the right word, but it's the word I used. You'll see here it is the copper. It's another Gartley pattern. You can see the ABCD. You can see we've been at the 61% retracement folks for five days. Look what happened the last time it was at the 61% retracement for five days. This is not a bearish chart. You're completing a Gartley right there right at the 61% retracement. You are not completing a Gartley here. This was just a 61% retracement. And then you went up with the fact that you've been here for all of these days means some people are willing to buy copper down there at 365. So that's what that means. And that means they could be wrong and it collapses. But that's what your stop is. If we make new lows below that, that's not a good thing. Let's take a break. 877-9766-48. Live every market day from 8.30 AM to 4 PM Eastern for free. 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The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Okay, folks, I've been asked by one of our real estate folks to take a look at the price of lumber over the last couple years. Well, back in May of 2021, it had a price of $1800 a cubic foot and now it's trading for $382 a cubic foot. Now, holy moly, what does that mean? Does that mean that, hold on, I gotta turn that off just a second. It's done, there it's off, okay. Okay, anyway, that means that the price of lumber has gone down a great deal yet when you talk to a real estate person or a builder, the builder first thing is gonna send the price of lumber through the roof. Well, it was through the roof two years ago, but it's on the floor of the roof right now or the floor of the basement, let's put it that way. So you gotta be careful when people tell you what those prices are, that sometimes what they're telling you that is not actually the truth. Now I wanna do one other thing today since I've got you both on the, for both sections here. So we need to talk about the US dollar. We're at a very critical level here, folks. Here is a chart of the daily US dollar index. I wanna get this up here. That's what we're watching here. You'll see within a heartbeat of the 61% retracement. Now you see it was down a little bit. That means the euro was up. The euro is trying to make the 61% retracement to the downside. So the key levels here are gonna be done by the market here in the next three or four days. Any pop above this, the euro's going down. Any move below that, the euro's going up. It's not a question of which of these currencies is the best. It's who's got the cleanest dirty shirt because none of them look any good because the interest rates are going to go higher, folks. They will go higher. The reason why is as soon as we get the debt ceiling taken care of and what to say is they're gonna raise, my guess is they're gonna raise it probably by somewhere between 500 billion and 1 trillion, 1 trillion. I mean, can you believe that? That's 18 zeros, folks. Anyway, let's get back to the real thing at hand. When we increase our debt ceiling, we put up bonds that gives the money to run the company. There's a lot of assets in the United States. There's a lot of income coming in plus they have a lot of assets. So that's why U.S. treasuries are revered as not being susceptible to default. But if you'll remember, we posted that credit default swap chart that looks like the tulip bulb media. So somebody is out there thinking that there's actually going to be a default in the United States Treasury. Folks, if that happens, there will be a market crash if that happens because that means the full faith in government, full faith in honor of the U.S. government is no longer there. In other words, it's not in God we trust. It's gonna say in God we trust it. And that means that is not gonna be a liquid asset and people will start dumping bonds and that'll make interest rates go up and it'll make that lumber chart look like a bullish chart because there won't be much building or anything like that because interest rates are going so high that you're not gonna be able to do that. I do not think this is going to happen but I do believe that by golly, it's got a chance of happening. Otherwise, why would these really smart guys on Wall Street be buying these, putting these insurance on credit default swaps? I mean, stop and think folks in 115 years, you know, we've raised the debt 96 times. We've never, we've never defaulted. That was even during the Confederacy, the Civil War shut the front door. Now let's get back here to one other one that is important here. And that is the cocoa market because someone asked me to take a look at cocoa because the high on the cocoa was made on Friday. We posted that in the room here on Friday but look what happened today. After the market opened, you see the big break in cocoa. There was your first 382 retracement. There was your second 382 retracement and that my friends is worth the price of admission no matter what show you're going to, whether it's the Jersey Boys, the Sound of Music, Mama Mia, whatever it happens to be, West Side Story, this is where you play the game at the point 382. That's where the money is and that's what we like to see. So we'll be following that along quite a bit from our good friend that brought to my attention who is Tom Hougar, trader Tom. One of the best books out there on trading, The Best Loser Wins, if you don't have it. It's something that should be in your library. It's the best 40 bucks you can spend. So let's remind ourselves of that. Okay, one other one that someone's asked about and I'll get it up here just one second. And that is the sugar because this one has been what we say on a stratospheric ride to the moon, folks. We haven't been this high in sugar in 10 years. Now, luckily sugar is relatively cheap, 28 bucks a pound, but you can see here we've had very little, look at this, this thing is, once it broke out in this 1.618 level right here. You see that red box there? That's the stand in front of the train for the last time box because once you get above here, it's on its way and we're getting up here to almost 30 cents a pound. Remember, sugar was at 66 cents a pound back in 1968. I remember it very vividly because Roy Fassel was running the office for Conti commodities and he shorted it at 3 cents from my 66, 52 or something and the high was 55 and he was so nervous they ended up taking a $100 profit in it and it went to $3 a pound from 66 to $3 a pound. He could have bought a couple of nice porches back in those days and be more than a few. But anyway, it's all about risk control folks. It's not how much money you make. It's how much money you don't lose and that's the real key to what we're looking at here as we're doing it. We have one other request from someone and that is to show that corn shark one more time and I'll get it up here. Hold on here a second. That's not the one I wanted. Hold on just a minute. Oh, no, no, no, no, no. Don't tell me I don't have it. That's, oh, it's in a different section. I'm not able to do. Oh, you know what I can do though? I can show you the difference between the, hold on. This is the, oh, I'm going to sneeze here. Prolo Verdi's got me. Oh, excuse me folks. This is new crop, old crop corn folks and we almost made the 1.618. This is the one we missed last night by five cents. So this is the new crop. Oh, try it again. This is old crop corn that was grown last year as in the bins are still selling it. What we're watching is December corn, which is going to be the new crop corn and that's got to get through four months of a growing season. We've got to go through May, June, July, August, September and October and then we see what kind of crop we have. Never have I seen a year where we didn't have at least one or two major crop failures. So we're going to be watching it very, very closely here. So that's what we're watching here now. We got a break coming up. I believe the final break coming up here pretty soon. But remember, there's a big difference between old crop corn, which is in the bin versus new crop corn was in the ground and it's just starting to grow. It's not even sprouts yet. Well, a little bit.<PHONE_NUMBER> TFNN Educating Investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in a stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the Opening Call Newsletter at TFNN.com. The Opening Call Newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. 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Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Catch Tom O'Brien, professional trader and educator, founder of TFNN. Also a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. Okay, we're back folks and I've posted a chart here. It's a 15 minute chart of the NASDAQ. We're trading at $13,940. I remember our number was $13,960. Folks, if you think that's a Barry's looking chart, read my lips, no way. This looks like we're going to have a big earnings increase here by NVIDIA, maybe a few others, but this does not look very, I mean, that might be a top, but it's going to take out that $13,960 top very easily and the S&P we're trading at $14, excuse me, $4,221 right now. That number was $4,223. It's been as high as $4,226. That also will probably go a lot higher. My guess, the S&P will be somewhere around $4,240 to $4,260 would be my guess, but I'll be watching that for a good place to, because I, these are topping type patterns folks. Now, I might not get the top, but just like in Coco, if I get this top in and I see the break and then the 382, that's when I can go to the dance. As Yogi Berra used to say, when you go to the dance, go home or to the girl you took to the dance, and that's what I'm going to do. So I know what my risk is going to be. And hey, maybe this thing's going to go up for another two or three weeks without me. That's okay. Then I'll make something else in bonds or crude oil or corn. And of course the bonds were incredibly good to us all during last year. And most of this year too, as a matter of fact, and gold also. We're really very bullish gold and we're very bullish silver, especially silver from that pattern that I posted earlier this morning. A lot of work to do these next few days. So I'll be doing a lot of videos. So live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may God bless. And what we'll do is we'll see you on the flip side tomorrow. I have one final request is to do something nice for your neighbors folks because there's folks out there that are having a hell of a lot of problems. We'll see you tomorrow.


Let's begin. I'd like to begin by thanking Hanson Gulchin for having had the goodness to invite me back to yet another of these conferences, and although it would be unfair to last year's conference to say that this one is particularly good, I do think that these conferences get better and better. And they are the high point in my own intellectual calendar, so thank you very much, Hanson Gulchin. Now, I've been asked to talk about Chamberlain Churchill and the Second World War and counterfactual history. And in doing that, I'll begin by saying that I regard it as probably uncontroversial in this room if I say that the world would have been a better place had the Second World War not taken place. In the first place, we can say that had there been the Second World War, between 30 and 50 million people would not have been murdered in various kinds of state action. There would have been no first use of nuclear weapons against Japan. There would have been no devastation of Germany in the material and the cultural sense, though Germany would probably not have got entirely cleanly out of the hit to dictatorship. But there would not have been this total closure on German civilisation that happened in the mid-1940s. Central and Eastern Europe would not have been taken over by the Soviet Empire. You can say that the world at large would have been a better place. Speaking as an English nationalist, I can also say that England would probably have been a better place had there been no Second World War. The financial cost to Britain of the Second World War, the direct financial cost, I believe was £34,000 million, which doesn't mean much nowadays, but it's something like five times the gross domestic product of 1938. If you translate this into modern American terms, you're looking at a war that costs something like $50 trillion, and that's just the direct financial cost. Once you start looking at the opportunity costs, the indirect costs, then it is almost incalculable how much it costs. That being said, the huge financial cost did not seem to do the country any long-term damage, and by that 1960, in the economic terms, the country was better off than ever before. You can also say that the loss of men was not excessive. It was not anything to compare with the mincing machine that we had during the First World War. 60,000 civilians lost in the bombing. I think that's something like one Hamburg or a couple of hours of Dresden, so you can hardly complain about the German bombing campaign. And the loss of material in the bombing, again, was inconsiderable, really, at the times it made up in a few years. I think the real cost to Britain was the fact that, in 1940, Churchill struck a deal with the British Left. Churchill was allowed to strut around for five years playing at great power politics, going towards meetings on equal terms with Roosevelt and Stalin. The Left was allowed to take over the entire domestic administration. A Conservative MP wrote to his daughter after the 1945 general election. She said, wasn't it terrible that you've got a Labour government? And he said, nothing much to worry about. We've had that since 1940 anyway. There was a revolution in Britain in 1940 when the Left took over and everything bad that's happened in Britain since then is a direct or indirect result of the revolution in 1940 where the Left was allowed to take over the domestic administration of the country. By the Left, I mean the state socialists. I do think the Second World War was a bad thing in the sense that I believe that Britain should not have given that military guarantee to Poland in March 1939. Now, when I say this, quite often people say, oh, that's a terrible thing to say. If we hadn't stopped Hitler in 1939, he would have taken over Poland, he would then have invaded Russia and clothed in the enormous prestige and material resources from conquering the Eurasian landbaths. He would then have turned back and swallowed them up in one bite. Well, we don't know what would have happened. There's no way of saying. But if you look at Hitler's intentions and Hitler's abilities, it doesn't look as apocalyptic as many people who are in favour of the Second World War seem to say. There is no evidence that Hitler wanted to conquer or even to making them into a satellite. The only treaty he ever made that he ever kept was the naval treaty with Britain and he did keep that. He kept that. It's the only treaty that actually followed the letter. Hitler continually tried for peace with Britain right into 1941. He regarded the war with Britain as a diversion from the main project of his life, which was Laban's Ram in the East. Now, his intentions were Laban's Ram in the East and I must say that I doubt his ability to achieve that. Of course, when Hitler did eventually invade Russia in 1941, he had to fight war in the West. He had all sorts of diversions in the Balkans and in North Africa and this to some extent slowed him down. On the other hand, when he did invade in 1941, he was clothed in the prestige of having won the war in the West and he had battled hardened armies. It's difficult to say what would have happened if Hitler had invaded Russia in 1942-1943. Would he have won? He might have lost. Even if he had won, the point is that we know from having seen the American British occupation of Iraq and of Afghanistan that it is quite easy sometimes to conquer a country but to occupy it is rather harder. And to have conquered Russia, to have conquered the whole of European Russia and then to make this suitable for German settlement or simply to hold it against continued partisan attacks might well have consumed Hitler's strength for the rest of his life. We can also doubt how long without the Second World War as it happened, Hitler's health would have continued. We know that by 1945 he's in pretty bad shape. Now you can say that was the stress of fighting and losing a giant war but other leaders fought the Second World War and came through in pretty good shape. Stalin, Churchill and so on, it didn't seem to do their health much harm and so it may be that Hitler would not in any event have made it much beyond 55-60 and so it's difficult to say exactly what would have happened if Britain had not given that military guarantee to Poland. On the other hand, I don't see much reason to suppose that Hitler would have been able to set out on some project of world conquest. I just don't believe A that Hitler wanted to do this, he saw it as a diversion from Germany's true mission in the East and B that he would have been able to do any such thing. But one of the reasons why this interests me, although not the reason why it interests me, I've always been interested in what might have happened. Some people say, oh that's not true history, a true historian investigates what did happen. Perhaps I'm not a real historian but I am interested in what might have happened in other circumstances and I think that is quite a good way often of understanding what did happen. What would have happened, for example, if Drouet's cart had got stuck in the mud in 1791 when Louis XVI and his wife tried to leave France? What would have happened if he'd got away? What would have happened if Napoleon had died at the Siege of Toulon? What would have happened if Napoleon had won the Battle of Waterloo? All these are perhaps unanswerable questions but they're also very interesting questions. Another reason why it interests me at the moment is that my very good friend Richard Blake, whose novels you may have seen over there, has a six month gap in his schedule and he's currently writing a novel called The Churchill Memorandum. Mr Blake did decide in the first instance to set a thriller in the year 2014, 100 years after the non-occurrence of the First World War. It starts in 1896 when Churchill gets a spear in the gutter on the moon and that's the end of Winston Churchill, therefore probably no First World War and certainly no Second World War. But the problem with writing such an alternative historical thriller is that it is just so difficult to wind the tape back and then run it again without those two world wars. So what he decided in the end to do was to set his alternative history novel, a novel in the style of Elin Smith's Probability Broach or of King's The Amos's The Alteration. There is a whole genre of this literature. He decided to set The Churchill Memorandum in 1960 or 1959 actually 20 years after a freak accident in Prague. We know that Hitler visited Prague in the middle of March 1939. He was there for 22 hours inspecting the architecture and the sites of Prague. He was then driven to the railway station in Prague and got on a train to Berlin. What would have happened if when Hitler was driving back to the railway station in Prague his escort had got into trouble? It was a frosty morning. The roads in Prague were rather icy. What would have happened if one of the armoured cars in his escort had got stuck in the tram lines and Hitler's Mercedes had swerved to avoid hitting this and a Diana type scenario? So Hitler is dead in March 1939. There would then have been no Second World War because there would have been an immediate power vacuum in Berlin. What would the world look like? What would the world have looked like in 1960 if there had been no Second World War? And if we could have all the arguments with the neoconservs by saying, okay, well, Hitler's dead. So you don't need to worry about whether Hitler would have invaded America in 1948 or something. You know, Hitler's out of it. What happens next? A number of things that we can probably say about this world of 1960, it would have been a great deal richer because you would not have had between 30 and 50 million people murdered by various forms of state violence. There would not have been that enormous outpouring of wealth and the world would have been a richer place. Because we're only looking 20 years afterwards, we can rule out things like British crown colonies on the moon and indefinite life extension and all the rest of it. The world would have looked in many respects, much as it did in 1960, but there would have been some very interesting differences. Germany, I could deal with very quickly. I suspect that with Hitler out of the way, the power struggle in Berlin would have been won by Göring. He was popular with the German people. He was popular with the German establishment. He would have outmanoeuvred people like Himmler and Goebbels very easily. He might have killed them, might have retired them. It doesn't matter. He would then have run a very corrupt, very authoritarian socialist-style state. That's all we need to say about Germany. By 1960, fewer of Göring would be rather old. He probably wouldn't have gone to war with anybody. The Germans would have spared the past 20 years goose-stepping up and down, black banners, endless Wagner and otherwise, not very much, a protectorate over Poland perhaps, and a cold war with Soviet Russia. Soviet Russia would not have been devastated as it was by the Second World War. At the same time, Stalin and the Communist ideology would not have had that enormous prestige that they gained from actually beating Hitler because they didn't notice the fighting anyway, so they won war, I suppose. Communism might not have been so effective as an armed conspiracy in the 1940s and 50s, as in fact it was. What about Britain? What indeed about Britain? Well, I said that our main misfortune in the Second World War was the state socialist coup of May 1940. Because there would have been a Second World War, there would have been no defeat in the Norwegian campaign, no fall of the Chamber in Government, there would not have been that state socialist coup. We have no opinion poll data from the late 1930s, but everybody seems to have been agreed that the general election of 1940 would have been won by the Chamberlain national government, and this would have carried on into the mid 1940s. That is not to say that Britain would have avoided a drift into state socialism. The intellectual consensus among the smart people in the late 1930s was socialist. Look at the great names of the period, George Orwell, J.B. Priestley, Harold Acton. You have a whole range of people, often quite brilliant writers and journalists, and they believed in state socialist solutions to the problems of my country, and I find it very hard to believe that these people would not sooner or later have had their moment. These intellectual changes are often a generational matter. I suspect, drifting away from the main theme, that if the Conservatives had won the 1997 general election in Britain, we would still have had many of the things that we regard as new labour horrors. It was not just a matter of a one general election. This was a matter of a generation coming into its own. Equally, what is happening in America at the moment with President Obama would probably have happened whoever won the presidential election of two years ago. This is a matter of a younger generation that is easing aside its elders and is coming into its own, and they will do the things that they have been talking about for the last 25 years or so. Going back to my main theme, if there had been no Second World War, I find it inconceivable that people like George Orwell, J.B. Priestley, Harold Acton and all the rest would not have had a great influence on the British national mind and therefore on the course of British government throughout the 1940s and the 1950s. Without the Second World War, you would not have had the same cleaning out of the productive classes. There would have been a great deal more resistance to the drift into state socialism. These people would not have been carried shoulder high into the intellectual and political citigals of British life. They would not have had it all their own way. There would have been resistance. There might have been some kind of reaction in the 1950s as indeed there was. felly mae'r waz yn ymweld yn ymweld, yn ei fwyaf ychydig, oherwydd mae'n ddweud yn ymweld yn ymweld yn ymweld yn ymweld. Wrth iddo, mae'r ddweud yn oed yn oed yn yr ymddylliannod o'r cyfnod ymlaen. A wnaeth ymweld ymweld yn ymweld yn ymweld yn yr ymweld yn ymweld. Byddai'n gwybod ymwyaf yn ymweld yn 1960? I think the answer is yes, and that would be one of the downsides of having been no second world war. The empire was never a source of British greatness, it was an effect. It was rather like the plumage on one of those birds that's good for attracting mates and frightening away predators, but it is in itself pretty useless. I suspect that by 1960, in this alternative world, Britain would still be stuck in India, trying to keep peace between lunatic mobs of Muslims and Hindus. We're stuck in India because we were there, because there was no great reason for us to leave, and because everybody said, well, we've always been there, so we should always stay there. And with India, I imagine that most of the rest of the empire would still be there. The technology. Now, I don't think that there would have been so much development of aircraft and rocketry. This was enormously fostered by the Second World War. I don't think that in the same great development of computing this again was fostered by the Second World War. Indeed, the purely civilian economy didn't really get interested in computers until the 1970s, until then computers were things for the state or for companies which were recipients of state contracts, the military industrial complex you could call it. And so without the Second World War, less development of computing, less development of aviation technology, possibly no development worth mentioning of rocketry. There would have been visionaries talking of space travel, but probably nothing definite done about it simply because the technology hadn't been developed. What technologies would have developed in place of that? Now, I can't answer that, it's rather like best yet what is seen and what is not seen. We saw between 1940 and 1960 the development of certain technologies. We don't know, we can't know what technologies were there by crowded out. Would there have been more medical progress than in fact there was? Would there have been much more development of electronics but in the civilian economy? I don't know, but the fact that between 30 and 50 million people were not being killed, you'd have not had that scale of material devastation indicates that there would have been many technological advances which in fact had not happened by 1960. Perhaps the sort of technological breakthroughs we had in the 1970s and 80s would have taken place in the 1950s and 60s. I don't know, I can't know, but my friend Mr Blake will try to work something out when he comes to the background of the Churchill memorandum. Now, one thing I would, one thing I have not mentioned so far is what would have happened with America without the Second World War and my short answer is I don't know. I think it's fair to say that the whole Roosevelt project, the New Deal, was rescued by the Second World War. It does not seem that America was rescued from the Great Depression by any of Roosevelt's interventions in the 1930s and it's only the enormous inflationary spending and the war economy of the early and mid 1940s that got America out of the Great Depression. So, if there had been the Second World War, what would have happened in America? Would the Roosevelt project, was this a generational shift and would it have continued rumbling along but in slightly different ways? Would there have been a traditionalist reaction in 1940 or 1944? I don't know. Would perhaps America have run into very serious domestic problems? Would there, might there have been, even a break up of the United States? I don't know and that is a weak point in the whole Churchill memorandum background and I hope that many of the Americans who are in this room will have some ideas on what would have happened. Now, the last thing I would say is that the Churchill memorandum will not be great literature when it's written just as the other novels that Richard Blake has written cannot be regarded as great literature, but they are significant in one aspect. We in the libertarian and conservative movements have been very good during the past half century in explaining what is wrong with the world and what needs to be done in the economic and political sense to make it a better place. If you want to know about our views on company law reform or land reform or monetary reform or have you, it's all there. It's all being done, it's all being done at the moment with great brilliance. But the world is not as influenced by this kind of abstract political, economic and social thought as we would like to think. The socialist takeover of the western mind in the early and middle 20th century had rather little to do with all those socialist pamphlets. I think that it was driven much more by the cultural war that the socialists unleashed. I think the novels of George Orwell of J.B. Priestley, I think certainly many Hollywood films did a great deal more to bring the western mind over to socialism than any amount of scribbling by socialist intellectuals. One of the weaknesses that our movement has suffered over the past few generations is that we are not very strong in the arts. We have not done much in the cultural sense. We have had very little cultural outreach. Whenever we do think of culture, it's to complain about how lifting and how disgusting Hollywood is or how dreadful are these American comedy programs or, in my case, in English women, how ghastly and how bleakly propagandistic soap operas like EastEnders are and their corrupting effect on the English mind. We are very good at criticising, but we haven't so far been very good at providing an alternative of our own. Even in America, if I want to think of great libertarian cultural propaganda, the best I can think of is something like Ferris Bueller's Day Off, which was released, I think, in 1984 and 1985, a great libertarian film, which is also a very good film, but there hasn't been that much produced even in America, even in the broadcast arts, and there's been very little done in England. Although Richard Blake may not be another Proust or another Baltsack or another Dickens or whatever that just fit in the blanks, he is an interesting cultural phenomenon. He is an outspoken libertarian who also writes mainstream fiction, which is read by fairly large numbers of people. To say that Richard Blake will by himself revolutionise the English mind in the same way as priestly, all-world, goals-worthy, shaw, wells, and all the others did in the early 20th century is perhaps saying more than can be said about Richard Blake, but on the other hand, if Richard Blake, a libertarian novelist, can break through into mainstream fiction, many other people can. I do think that The Churchill Memorandum will be a significant novel, even if it's not a very good one, in the sense that it's worth considering what the world would have looked like in 1960 had there not been this gigantic catastrophe in the early 1940s. The world would have been a better place if the state had not been as entirely released from its bottle as in fact it was. So I do believe that you should encourage Mr Blake as much as possible by buying his novels. If any of you have contacts with Hollywood film people, Mr Blake is always willing to talk to these people. More importantly, if you do have a novel of your own that you've been idly considering for the past few years, I think it is in your interest and I think it is your duty to go ahead and to write it because you'll be fighting the war for truth, writing justice just as effectively by writing novels as by writing more cultural and economic critiques. So with that I thank you for your indulgence and I will shut up now. Thank you.