The following is a presentation of TFNN The Traders Edge with Steve Rhodes All now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> The Traders Edge Now Steve Rhodes Good day folks welcome to the January 4th the terrific Tuesday edition of today's Traders Zed show. I'm your host TV perseverance Rhodes Who absolutely knows that each of us should always be pioneers of our future versus prisoners of our past? Hope everyone out there is having a great day. Hey, let's make sure we have an extraordinary one of the easiest way to do that It's always remember that life is happening for us not to us That's right. We did I make that one little two-by-four shift Well, it means we can find the gift in every set of circumstance that life is gonna toss at us now today You and I we're gonna go check on the circumstance of these markets We'll go figure out what those bulls and bears what those buyers and sellers are communicating to you and I just pass Well, it's just past eight o'clock in the morning. That's right if you listen as normal time We are recording today show between eight and nine. Thanks so much for listening in I will try to make this show as pertinent as we can for that one to two o'clock slot We'll be back to normal programming hours tomorrow, but if I listen live, we would love to hear from you So you can send me an email Steve at tfnn.com Inside the subject heading please put radio show question You can also give us called<PHONE_NUMBER> would love to hear from you to kick off 2022 and of course inside our Tigers demo any and every ping will do so let's go ahead and get this show started on terrific Tuesday Of course, this is Tiger Financial news network. I'm Steve Rhodes. Welcome to less show right now I've got all the usnc's trading to the upside the Dow futures are up 117 points are trading at 36573 trading above resistance We'll take a look at that shortly the NASDAQ up 32 points 16 516 as its print the s&p 14 points 47 99 to 4800 they Russell 2000 up at 22 77 That's eight points are nearly four tenths were sent to the upside spot politics is also rising still below its 50-day Exponential moving average over an Asia last night. It was a mixed bag. You had the Shanghai off eight points That was basically flat the knee key up nearly 2 percent five hundred ten points That's I got an a to b equal cd to the upside the hang saying up 15 points She's trading out at 23 289 in Europe this morning both the Dax and the footsie the footsie strong One and a half percent one and four tenths percent the Dax is trading out at 16 161 Gold is flat sub 70 cents Silver's flat. It's down 10 cents platinum futures off four bucks Palladium but up is is up $30 30 your Treasury have it another difficult day down 22 ticks. She's trade at 157 07 so let's begin the day in the equity markets and to do that Let's just go over and take a look at our eight panel chart for each of the equity future Contracts out here just get that feel for what its messages are so we begin in the upper left-hand corner You've got the ES mini the yes many for the monthly time frame It's really what I was trying to say formed a completed a TD nine count top last month the month of December Was the bar following bar number nine so that high that high is 47 99 75 is a really critical level If on a monthly basis, we were to see a close above that that tells about a strong lament to move to the upside And Stevie's idea that there might be a top. Well, maybe that's a bit premature We don't have that message just yet But we do have a valid topping pattern on the monthly that says okay pay attention be careful the weekly chart Has a roadsman to indicator signal and what that means is that we need to see some type of bearish reversal candle Form on a weekly basis to confirm that top We would want to see that plus a close below that green oscillator and change line currently printed at 47 71 So you've got a top on the monthly We don't have a topping signal yet on the weekly it's got the potential for it But it would have to be right now it'd be a roadsman to indicator top that could form this week So we'll be on the lookout for that the daily time frame right now is taking on the resistance of the top of it's a Barish engulfing candle that confirmed an a to b equal cd to the upside of sell the d-point a butterfly Sell pattern but a close today about 47 99 75 word 47 99 50 We'll negate that pattern and that would then suggest we have to wait for the next top to form There is no TD 9 count top right now that is present that would identify a top There's no road momentum indicator signal that would identify top So the only thing that would take place out here if the 47 99 level gets negated meaning that the Sell the d-point pattern fails would be some other bearish reversal candle to confirm another sell the d-point So we're really waiting that signals from the daily now the daily signal is still in place It's still gonna top just price has not been able to take hold or get traction to the downside Traction would be a close at least below its oscillator and change line that is a key level of support Especially since it is green and that's at 47 67 So we're really waiting on the daily that could then impact the weekly give us that bearish reversal candle If we get that then you have all three of these time frames on top of the yearly TD 9 count pattern is also present That would suggest that we've got a top and it could be a top of Could be a significant top the type of top that could last for at least a year one to three years out there So that's why we're paying attention now if these patterns fail again They'll tell us about a strong moment to move to the upside so I'm not suggesting that you take a market index short position now just Just because we have these signals I'd say wait for proof because If this is more than just a you know a few-day retracement or something along those lines and it's a significant top Then you can afford to wait to get that confirmation out there Now we don't have that confirmation as we speak 30-minute time frame chart for the ES many other than maybe an a to b Equal CD pattern is out. Let me just expand this out Do I see an a to b equal CD pattern and I guess you could I don't think it's completed You could go from the low down here All the way up to this TD 9 count pattern. Yeah, there's no way that this is completed So there's no 30-minute topping signal that I've got let me just Copy this and because that would in essence be the a to b equal CD and I don't even there we go And that would give us a price target out here in the 4820 level So on a 30-minute time frame for the ES mini There is no topping signal that I see as we speak right now not for that time frame So what does that say? Well, that says boy if we are trading about that 4799 level, which we are right now This is suggesting we move higher as I look at the ES mini for the 60-minute time frame same thing out there I don't see an a to b equal CD or any kind of a topping signal Out here in the case of the 120 minute chart you do have a TD 9 count top So the two-hour chart says a TD 9 count top out there if this takes whole price should pull back to 4794 the 240-minute chart has triggered arrangement of indicator signal. Let me pull this down just a bit and Yeah, it's so there's no topping pattern in place for the 240 right now But if this did generate and this bar here the 240-minute chart this is going to complete at 10 o'clock So not for another two hours, but if there were to be a bearish reversal That did complete out here that would suggest okay You've got a top here you'd have a top of the 120 and you have a TD 9 count in the five hours So the larger term time frames five hour four hour in two hour do show some topping signals We just don't have that in the shorter term time frame charts. So what does that mean? That means well because of the TD 9 count tops out here So that's a cool pattern now remember the 120-minute time frame chart won't complete this next bar until 10 But if in fact well, so you whatever the high of the ES mini is by 10 o'clock It might be where we're at already right now, which is 4807 I don't know if that's going to be the case or not But whatever the highest and if it is 4807 and then after 10 o'clock price starts trading above that or close above it by Noon that pet will be negated and say we're headed to higher prices Maybe that 4820 at a to b equals cd to the upside. We'll be right back What's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street? 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So what we established during that first segment we were taking a look at the ES mini is that the larger timeframes the 2-hour the 4-hour and the 5-hour do have potential topping signals out there So that you're gonna watch the high by 10 o'clock this morning if price is trading above that level Then that says that price is gonna move higher and as we switch over right now take a look at the weekly timeframes out here You do see a to B equal CD patents are present for the ES mini So if this high does not take place in other words a price is trained above the high from 10 o'clock Then that's gonna suggest that over time price may be headed to 49 65 That's the one-to-one and that's a small a to B equal CD pattern for the ES mini for its weekly time frame As long as we're on this page here You can see the NQ has an a to B equal CD to the upside But it's gonna need to close above the high from the week of November 22nd that high out there is 16 7 6 9 if you did see that then the move to 17 170 would be underway in the case of the Dow 36 899 as it's likely target That's assuming that it continues to close above 36 354 and inside the Russell 2000 It's upside target would be 2314. That's the top of the weekly profile We do have one question that's coming so far of course folks I would love to hear from you as well 877 9276 648 Steve at tfn.com or inside the Inside the Tigers then any ping will do and this being coming from SNP who wants to take a look at Pinterest The ticker symbol there is P ins and the question is Specifically I can you tell which direction Pinterest is going to head? So here's what we do know from a profile standpoint You're trading into the bowler structure daily level so as long as price remains above 35 43 This suggests that maybe it wants to add higher now maybe wants to add higher to where 42 37 We're gonna pull the white background charts over if we see some confirmed bottom signals out there Then that would really be suggesting to an ISN P a target of 42 37 If you look at the weekly profile, you only see two lines. That's because the center also happens to be at the bottom Let me see if I can get the data box. There we go. Say, where did that go? Let me see if I can get that displayed here So every now and then you get a center of profile that that tends to be right at the bottom And that's what we've got right now 35 57 so 35 43 and 35 57 Specifically are your real key levels if price were to close below 3557 on a weekly basis then the signal there as far as the direction would be south and that south Direction would say 2561 the bottom of the monthly profile. So that's what the profiles are communicating to assess NP Let's go see what the daily weekly and monthly charts are also communicating because what we're looking here We're looking at on these charts is a potential bottom pattern or signals out here So on the daily time frame. Well, ah, there you go. So Pinterest Generated rose mid-deme indicator signal the first one came on December 13th The second one was December 15th and on December 17th that pattern was confirmed Why because you have that bull sash candle. So this is suggesting to at least on a daily basis That in fact Pinterest wants to head higher and that target being the 42 37 above that SNP 4657 how about the weekly time frame well turns out the weekly time frame also has a Bottoming pattern it formed a TD 9 count bottom right at its breakout level of support of 34 91 Now the key level here that you need to see price close above is going to be that oscillator and change line That's at 39 20 the top of the weekly profile is 40. Oh wait So we'll just say a close about 40 8 would be bullish and suggest to run the 51 39 but you've got a bottom pattern on the daily and a bottom pattern of weekly and so this is telling us that at Least bowls are making or buyers are making an attempt to form a bottom here on a monthly time frame Well turns out this on December was bar number eight of a TD 9 count now bar number nine still has to complete in order for That to happen in the month of January price has to close below 1595 that's a likely outcome. So you should get a TD 9 count bottom pattern on a monthly basis in January Well, we don't know is whether it's this month or December's December's bar That's a low bar eight or whether it could be bar number nine, but right now I said be the daily weekly say we're gonna make an attempt to form a bottom here So I would have to say right now the monthly it's telling us that you've got a valid bottoming signal as well One last time friend that will take a look at for SNP. What do we have out here on the 30 minute chart? Really not much Not much to assist us so we'll just simply go with those patterns It looks like you've got a bottom here in Pinterest and just watch those key levels of support So SNP, thanks much for writing in. I hope that that helps you out and no other questions at this stage So let's go back to what we were doing earlier if you give me a moment Let's go from the ES to where let's go to the NQ and again, we're gonna just simply pick apart the NQ's charts We'll change screens here. It's four panel charts Let's see get a feel for what's going on for the multiple time frames just like we did for the ES mini So in the upper left-hand corner, we again start with the monthly time frame now in the case of its monthly time frame Unlike the ES which has a TD9 count top the NQ Negated its TD9 count top a couple months ago That was back in November when price closed above the top of that pattern It does have a roadsman to indicator signal It's triggered so therefore the only pattern that it has of a potential top for its monthly time frame would be a Roadsman to indicator signal and that requires a monthly bearish reversal candle to complete So it's January 4th We won't know about that until the end of the month in the case of the weekly chart though It already has a confirmed roadsman to indicator top last week's candle inside the NQ was a bearish shooting star So you've got resistance that last week's high last week's high is going to be 6 oops my apology 16 15 if you get a close above that then the roadsman to indicator signal will have failed and that would suggest higher price The daily time frame already has a roadsman to indicator top was this a November 22nd Bearish engulfing candle and not until price takes out that high So that really becomes a second level and that's a higher high. That's at 16 7 68 So we would say a close above 17, but I say 16 7 68 when they gate the whole kid in caboodle here inside the NQ And that would suggest that we're headed to higher price now Remember the higher price level that we took a look at at least initially on a weekly time frame chart for the NQ We'd get us up into the 17 170 level So if these patterns fail this is saying to the upside you'd be looking towards that was 17 170 area That's in lieu of some other topping signal that could form between now and then should that unfold as we look at a 30 Minute time frame chart it has a roadsman to indicator signal It formed that earlier this morning that actually formed at 7 o'clock That took price right back to its right back to its breakout level of 16 484 75 No, it did not get all the way down to 16 484 75 But that is your key level of support your price were to break through that then you'd be looking to move to 16 403 30 minute has a top 60 minute does not have a topping pattern the 120 minute time frame chart This does as wave number seven. That's way back here from back in December 28 So that pattern has not been taken out the four-hour time frame chart Yeah, I mean maybe there's an a to b equal CD. I'm not gonna spend the time to go take a look at that Nothing pops out on the five-hour time frame chart So right now the only short-term time frame chart the only interdate time frame chart signal that we have It's really coming from the 30 minute the hundred twenty minutes still has its pattern that is out there So with regard to the NQ, what are you gonna really watch today? You're gonna watch at the bottom you're gonna watch 16 484 75 and To the to the upside you're gonna watch the high from last week get that high 16 659 50 let's move from the NQ. Well, we're gonna go to a commercial break here I'll put up the charts and let's go to the Dow and see what the Dow's signals are. Well, it is monthly It's weekly. It's daily time frame. Of course, if you've got a question feel free to give us called 877 9276 648 If you're listening at 126 in the afternoon, thanks much for doing that We're gonna try to make today's show as pertinent for that hour as we possibly can see roads with TFN Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? 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It got close You know 22 30 was the price projection. It got down to a lobe 2354 so is that close enough? Hmm hard to say but let's say that it may be close enough then what you have out here is a confirmed It was confirmed right here with this bullish reversal candles and go bullish engulfing on December 30th now So let's say we've got the potential for a bottom. Maybe there's another bottom signal Bob will take a look at the White background charts momentarily On a weekly time frame. I don't see any kind of a bottom signal I mean even I can do this counting to see there's no TD 9 count bottom present But what price did do was it pulled back to test support that can be a bottoming, right? What what you and I are always attempting to do here is try to identify where support wears resistance So we use our market profiles as one of those levels We use bullish or bearish reversal candles at the completion of a pattern that assist us as well We can use those TD 9 breakout and breakdown level So we have a number of things that we can use for support price can pull back to support boom The work is done to the downside and on the weekly chart right now for eno vix it has done that Let's pull over the not enough data on the monthly time frame charts from a pattern standpoint for me to assist you there So back to the daily the white background charts and what we see out here is what? Not much the top was pretty easy to identify wave number seven Rosamund Dominicator top, but on the bottom. It's just that It's just that potential of that a-to-b equal CD pattern What you'd like to see here Bob is a close above 2773 not one but two consecutive closes to then suggest that envx should had To higher ground now higher ground here on a weekly chart says 2903 is the next battle ground So if price can close above 2903 that would then suggest 3161 So 20 that so that's that's really what you're looking for to the upside a close above 2903 to then suggest you're moving higher and again in that monthly time frame There's just no data here to assist us intraday envx. I don't see anything here. That's assisting us as well So looks like you've got a potential bottom I think that'll be confirmed when you get a close above if you get a close above 2903 That's currently the weekly oscillator and change line So thanks much for the request of Bob. Happy New Year to you and we'll look forward to your next request So let's not know other requests that I've got by email or anything that I see inside the tiger's den So let's go back to the a dow equity future contract charts out there If you give me just a moment We've got to switch screens and I've got to get that up on the set of charts out here. Voila. We're all set So in the upper left-hand corner, we're back to the monthly time frame So remember in the case of the ES and the NQ the ES had a TD 9 count top the monthly for the NQ I negated its we don't have any kind of a topping pattern out here on a monthly basis for the Dow Well, we do have for the Dow on a weekly time frame very much like I believe we were looking at the NQ or the ES many maybe was both But you've got a roadsman to indicator signal So what is needed here to confirm its top would be a bearish reversal candle combined with a close below that oscillator and change line Currently that's printed 36 311. So no topping signal on the monthly No Confirmed top on the weekly chart and the a daily chart is taking out his TD 9 count top In fact, it did that yesterday. However, I'll just expand the chart out. You will see that today Let me pull this back a tad today is going to become bar number 8 or appears It'll become bar number 8 of a TD 9 count It'll form bar number 8 so long as today's close is above 36 380 So that tells us that on a daily time frame We've got the potential for a topping signal remember on the TD 9 counts It's bar 8 9 or the bar following 9 that needs to be the high of the pattern We don't know what the what bar number 9 and for in this case here bar number 9 would need to come tomorrow Close above 36 287 to then at least complete that pattern So that you could see a top today form We won't have that confirmed at least until tomorrow and then again on Thursday out there But did there is so even though it's negated its prior TD 9 count top Which by the way led to a nice move back to a TD 9 count bottom out here That may be the next pattern inside of the Dow equity future contract 30 minute time frame chart You would need a bearish reversal candle to confirm that topping signal that topping signal being the roads meant to Mindicator top the 60 has a TD 9 count top the 120 has a TD 9 count top the 4-hour time frame chart has what? See here So you still have a valid TD 9 count top But that's going to be negated if we see a close on a 240 minute a 4-hour basis That would be 10 o'clock a close above 36 572 when they gate that signal or 36 601 right now So what that obviously won't we'll watch that if you're listening live watch that at 10 What else do I see in the 5-hour chart? I don't see anything else So it's got that so basically it's a 60 in the 120 right now that have the topping patterns out there So you'll want to watch those levels of support those levels of support really I'd say 36 526 would be an area to be watching so that's what's going on inside the Dow equity future contract Let's go to our first caller and that's going to be what we have out here. We got Gary a new Buffalo, Michigan Gary Thanks for calling. Thanks for holding happy new year to you And a happy Alfian buzzer one to you and your loved one Steve. Thank you. Thank you very much So you're calling to talk about the 30 year Treasury I think we talked about this last week you were looking to add to a position I believe and I suggested maybe holding off because of the topping patterns that we had So where are you at now? How can I best help you? Well, I should have got out yesterday, obviously But um, um, some of my options, but I'm looking to see if I need to get out this morning and just Go to the go to the bench so to speak. Okay, I mean the coach to pull me off the floor Well, so let's go see what we let's go see what we can find out about the 30 year Treasury right now So what it's doing as we speak and it's just the early part of the week Gary So it's just Tuesday and what we don't know is whether or not the bottom of that weekly bullet structure profile is going to hold That's at 157 25 your 25 ticks below that right now so Where could price also be trading back to so the question is I would say the next downside Target would be the swing low from the trading week Began October 11th and that level there is going to be 155 17 So you're looking at about a point and a half or so lower from where we're at now So I don't know if you want to take that kind of pressure or not You know what I want to try to do Hopefully this will do is I want to get my five panel charts up if I can I just don't know if it's going to Because of the number in any event out here. So we're looking for support. Hopefully those five panel charts show up Price is already trading below a swing point from the daily timeframe. That's November 24th low. That's a 157 11 again You're 150 702 so all of this is suggesting Lower price and that lower price again Gary looks to me like it's going to be the low from the week that began October 11 and that's in that 155 17 level so if that's where things are headed to is that Any kind of pressure that you can withhold?  Some of them are a little short. So I need to get out Yeah What I don't got some options expiring the end of this month Okay The the the I would say this Gary 156 31 They were at 157 0 3 Hold off and don't do anything unless you see a close below 156 31 We're running out of time here. Hold on through this break. Gary will come back We'll take a look at why it is that I'm suggesting that level to be watching Steve Rhodes with TFN. 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can still move below it today and tomorrow and then back above it by Friday But I would least as opposed to pulling the trigger right now knowing that prices pulling back to that potential key level of support where it also found a TD 9 count bottom I would at least wait for it closed below 156 31 today that at least you know move your stop lower or not lower but I'm not sure where your stop is at But and as I look at the daily time frame chart now yesterday formed a TD 9 count bottom it was a bar following bar number nine So yesterday's low is really important out there that's at 157 16 so if this 156 31 holds and then price gets back above the low of yesterday Then that would be saying okay put your stop below today's low whatever that is that out there just does that make sense makes a lot of sense The 30 minute chart is also trying to form right now a bullish piercing candle maybe it ends up being a bullish engulfing candle the session doesn't close for another 1517 minutes out here but it is giving you a signal that it is trying to form a bottom so you're at a key level of sport on the weekly The daily could hold up on that TD 9 count bottom and the 30 minute is telling you it's trying to turn so therefore those would be the reasons why if it's me I'm going to wait for an additional confirmation of break of key level of support before I would jettison the position so those are what the charts are communicating to me any questions about those No it's excellent Okay perfect all right so glad to assist you happy new year to you always good to hear your voice and best of luck to you on this trade we're all pulling for you inside the tiger's den So we're looking for the third well of course there may be people that are short out there they're saying hey Stevo but they'll if you are short the 30 year treasury It still uses exact same information that we just came up with because you know the key levels of threshold levels where price is at and what action you might want to take based upon today's close So Gary again thanks for the call and we'll look forward to speaking to get some You're always excellent wherever you're at in the newsletter or here or at your time but I gotta believe there's a lot of people that are on a daily basis that would love you here every morning at this point because you just nail it out there on so many key points Whenever you're on but especially in the morning so be well Well thanks Gary you bet and you have a great Tuesday as well We do have a couple of questions folks that have come in through the tiger's den so I certainly want to get to those and the first one was to take a look at Honeywell So give me a moment here we're going to change screens again we're going to go to our black background screens we'll take a look at our Tas market profiles and I'll be able to pull over those white background charts So when take a look at Honeywell I don't recall what the question was it might have been just take a look at Honeywell So that's what we're going to do Steve Honeywell entry level Okay so right now it's not your entry points a place inside of Honeywell Satish and the reason is because price is trading right now on a daily basis into its bear structured profile area which is held It's been tested three different times last three trading sessions in fact that's at the 208 85 level So right now just looking at the profiles it would be some type of retracement It could get all the way down to support at the 199 44 level we'll pull over my other charts and see what In fact let's go to those other charts right now and see what kind of signals we have in Honeywell And on the daily timeframe what we're trying to understand is did it form a bottom did it generate a bottom signal Well it turns out that it did so here's what I would look at Satish Now you had a rose momentum indicator signal that triggered on December 20th You get a gap to the upside on my chart here shows the rising window that's your bullish reversal candle So your entry point here one entry point is going to be that oscillator and change line So since price has been able to has been unable to take out resistance that being the or get into resistance even That being the bear structured area your entry level is going to be 204 34 You know that you've got a big battle up in front of 208 85 to 211 54 So an entry point one entry point be 204 34 second would be 199 44 And if price closes below the low out here the low from the trading day of December 20th Well then we were just simply completely wrong or at least the signals that it gave us the buyers really just Didn't have a backbone but right now you've got a valid bottom on the daily 204 34 and 199 44 Well you like the weekly chart out here why not that we have a bottom pattern But because the bottom pattern is that price pulled back and tested its breakout level of 199 86 It's a beautiful thing out here so you've got a key level of sport that is held an oscillator and change line that recently changed colors So here's Satish price should go target that oscillator and change on the weekly oscillator and change line Currently in about the 213 level the exact number is actually 213 49 If price we're able to close above that well you'd be above both the oscillator and change line and the top of its weekly profile And that would suggest you'd get back to the more recent swing point from back on around in November and that's in the 228 area On the monthly timeframe for Honeywell. What do we have so Honeywell says you know maybe not so fast confirm Rosemont indicator top So it's going to have to be the weekly which has held support What you don't want to see is price get up to that 214 level turned back down That would be rejection and I would say hey we had lower maybe the 201 12 level we don't have that signal just yet So you see a nice bottom on the daily support is held on the weekly the monthly is not really helping us I would just go with the daily charts out there so I hope that helps you out Satish with regard to entry levels And what just simply the chart patterns for Honeywell are communicating to you and I Dan wants to take a look at ticker symbol a veo a veo is what It is a veo pharmaceuticals big day yesterday getting back inside its daily profile This is a bare structure profile here Dan so what you want to see is a this price to your next battle it's pretty simple Your next battle is a 543 but it's really between 543 and 570 That's the bare structure daily profile that this is trading up towards If you can take out 570 then your next battle becomes 664 to 713 That is its bare structured weekly profile so let's pull over a veo and take a look at its white background charts We'll look at the daily weekly monthly let's start with the daily out here And on the daily timeframe well beautiful roads mint and indicator bottom that completes yesterday So your battleground nothing has changed here you do have an additional battleground level 568 that is where price broke down to create that TD9 count so close above again at 570 That's going to be a bullish message and that would suggest to move up to the 711 area So that looks very good you'd want to buy any retracement out here it would appear On a weekly timeframe I don't have much so it's really going to be the daily chart here Dan That is controlling the activity at this stage well let's look at the monthly too Yeah so nothing on the monthly so this is going to be all about the daily You know you had wide price spread yesterday which it didn't have You know did you really have accelerated volume slightly higher volume Volume moving up but not the type of volume you would maybe expect with a wide ranging bar like it had Nonetheless it's back inside the profile it's got a valid bottoming pattern 543 to 570 becomes the resistance level or your battleground for this ticker symbol So I hope that helps you out Dan and best of luck to you on that trade I don't think there's anything else inside the Tigris and if there is Would you be kind of to pre-print it looks like we're going to go to our hard break here Or any kind of break Hector does want us to take a look at Amazon Let me get the Amazon chart up on the screen here real quick These are going to be the black background charts that show us our task market profiles So in the case of Amazon it held support the bottom of its daily profile 33.53 it's held the bottom of its weekly profile 33.52 out here We'll finish looking at Amazon for Hector and Patty we get back to this break The reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky Markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand Having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades At TFNN we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news That's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter A must-have tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets TFNN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade Try any of our great newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee Just visit the newsletters tab on the front page of TFNN.com TFNN Educating Investors Are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? 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The Tiger First Mortgage Program may be just the program for you The Tiger First Mortgage Program pays 7% per year, paid monthly For more information you can call<PHONE_NUMBER> that's<PHONE_NUMBER> Don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day Go to TFNN.com then hit Watch Tiger TV That's TFNN.com then hit Watch Tiger TV So if we look at the daily time frame chart here for Amazon Hector But I don't have any kind of bottoming signal Yes, price is held, the level of support, the bottom of that daily profile 33.53 out there So when I'm looking for chart patterns I go to the weekly time frame What really sticks out to me is a consolidation So it has a nice confirmed Roadsmen Dementicator top Does that back on July 16th of last year That led to a move lower and that's really at the bottom of the consolidation out here And that was just testing prior swing points from back in June From back in May of last year Price goes ahead and gets down there and makes a move back up towards that Roadsmen Dementicator top So really we've got a consolidation out here So the best place to buy a consolidation would be at the bottom of it So not now, if you're looking to add to Amazon I'd say I would do it around the 31.74 level out here But just a sideways consolidation, not much more for me to report you there You do have a confirmed Roadsmen Dementicator top on the monthly time frame as well And price has made its way where it's found support inside that bullish structured level Of it's a monthly time frame and that's at the 32.37 level So that's all I see when I take a look at the Amazon chart I hope that that helps you out Thanks so much for writing in The last chart that we're going to take a look at is ticker symbol CYTO This is for Dan inside the Tiger's Den And as we take a look at its daily time frame You love the fact that price is above 179 179 was the TD9 count breakdown level So you're above that, you go to the next one It already did that, that next one was 223 That's likely where it is headed to That's on the daily time frame where the signal's from it On a weekly basis out here, what do we have? Nothing much, price is inside its profile Price was below, it's a bullish structured profile So Dan, price got below that You can see that here over in the last month And so you know that your countertrend level Is at the center of that profile And that center, well a way to take Wait, there's a brand new weekly profile, I take that back A close above 230, that's the level you're looking at A close above 230 would be another positive on this Even though I know a bottom pattern out there Is price can take out resistance, that's what you're looking for So 230 is a key level out there Folks, stay tuned, Tommy O'Brien is up next If you listen in at one o'clock It'll be a replay today, David White will be back with us live tomorrow Have a terrific Tuesday folks, thanks for joining me


They have this at you. Thank you very much, Alec, for this introduction. So I'm going to share the screen. Hope you can see the screen in full mode now. OK, welcome, everybody. Good morning, everyone, in case you are in Europe. As Alec said, my name is Arnau Falk, and I am a professor now at the Geoscience Barcelona, which belongs to the Spanish National Research Council. But they also have a double affiliation, so I am also based at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center. Today it is about volcanoes, and I'm going to start with this series of two talks on the data simulation of volcanic clouds. This is the plan for today. This morning is to 45 minutes talk with a break of 10 minutes. And then after lunch or in the afternoon, we're going to have another two talks on lava dynamics. I am very sorry I don't want to interrupt you, but yesterday I gave this talk because replacing the Vasili Titov who couldn't make. And today will be Vasili Titov instead of me. Sorry. Sorry, I didn't know because I was in the field until yesterday, so I'm sorry about that. No problem. OK, so this is the contents of the two talks. I think it's worth to do a first long introduction on volcanic clouds first to see I guess that some of you will maybe not have a strong background on volcanology and on volcanic clouds. So I think it's worth to spend some time showing what are volcanic clouds and how do we model them and how do we forecast the trajectories and the evolution of volcanic clouds and also how are the settings of operational models and which is the role that data simulation is playing nowadays on all these setups. We will also see few slides on the different observation mechanisms that we have for volcanic clouds. In particular, I will focus on satellite devices, let's say, because this is the most used, but we also will see other. I think that it will take me around these 45 minutes, so that's probably part one of the two talks. And then in the second block, we will go straight to the point and see the different data simulation strategies. And in particular, we will see what the community has developed in the last decade, which are essentially three different strategies, data insertion, the inversion of the source term, and then a more, let's say, standard ensemble based sequential data simulation. And then I will finish with the conclusion. So let's just start with this introduction and I will try to explain you briefly what are volcanic clouds. The first thing we have to know is that volcanic clouds are formed during explosive volcanism. And the explosive volcanism is characterized by the fragmentation of magma. So we have this situation here. Typically during interruption, we have a deep reservoir or a shallow reservoir, which contains magma. Magma is a silica male that has also volatiles dissolving. And an important point is that the solubility of these volatiles in the magma depends on pressure. So in the reservoir, pressures are high and the volatiles are dissolved. When we have an eruption and this magma starts to ascend through a dike or through a conduit towards the surface, it may reach a point that we call the exsolution surface in which this male gets saturated and gas bubbles start to form. This is a phenomena similar to what happened when we opened and we depressurized the champagne bottle, right? We just decreased the pressure. That saturates the volatiles and it produces the exsolution of gases. During the ascent, this mixture of magma with gas bubbles reaches levels, shallower levels, where the pressure is less and less. And these bubbles expand and grow up to a level with a phenomena which is called magma fragmentation of course. And this happens at this fragmentation level. And this is a dramatic change because then when the magma fragments, it converts into, let's say, a gas with pyroplasts of different sizes. This process of magma fragmentation can produce what the geologist called pyroplasts, with essentially this magma broken, let's say, of many different sizes. And they are globally known, regardless of the size, they are globally known as volcanic defa. But we have names for these particles depending on the size. Larger particles are named or are called volcanic bombs. And by definition, they are more than 6.4 centimeters, so 64 millimeters in size in diameter. Then the particles that are larger than 2 millimeters are named as lapilli. And finally, the finest component of this resulting from this fragmentation is what we call volcanic ash. And volcanic ash are all the particles that are less than 2 millimeters in size. Then when all this material, essentially this is gas with all these particles dispersed, reach the bend, they form an eruption column or a volcanic bloom. And this is how it looked like. So these columns are essentially when they are emitted in the atmosphere, as I said, a mixture of gases and dephra. And they can inject huge, huge amounts of materials to the atmosphere at high velocity. At the Basel region, this is a momentum driven, so there is an excess of momentum. So the assent of this mixture is essentially driven by the excess of momentum. But then, because this mixture is very hot, it's much hotter than the surrounding air, it starts to entrain air. And it heats the air, and this produces all this convection mechanism, what we call the convection region. That produces the assent of all this mixture up to an ultra buoyancy level in the atmosphere. That essentially depends on the energy. The most energetic eruptions, they can put this material up to many kilometers in the atmosphere, but essentially depends on the energy that is available. But in any case, a level or situation is rich when all this material that forms the eruption column reaches an ultra buoyancy level. And there, the winds at high start to, let's say, affect all this material and form what we call the volcanic cloud. So essentially, I want to make this distinction between what we call the column, which is this ascending part with vertical velocity, and the volcanic cloud, which is driven by passive transport. So this is passively transport by winds, and it's a mixture of entrained air with volcanic gases and particles dispersed. So when these particles and gases are injected, they can be transported very, very large distance before these particles settle on the ground. And they are passively driven by several physical mechanisms. The most dominant is the advection by wind, but we also have turbulent atmospheric diffusion. And of course, because these particles have a certain size, they do settle down, and we have also a particle sedimentation. And all in all, depending on the injection rate and on the wind speed, these clouds can travel from 100,000 to 1,000 kilometers from the volcanic source. We can see here a couple of images on how these clouds look like in the visible with the satellite images from the Coral and Kauje, and one of the eruptions of moment etna in CCB. An important point is that the settling velocity is very, very much dependent on the particle size. So as I said, we have particles of different sizes, bombs and blocks with size larger than 64 millimeters. They typically have falling velocities of the order of around 100 meters per second. It means that typically the residence time of these larger particles in the atmosphere is very low, so a few seconds. And as a result, they fall out very, very close to the volcano. So typically, they don't reach large distances. They fall out just with a ballistic component at few kilometers from the volcano. The other types of particles, so lapilli, colesage, and finage, they have this is order of magnitude, but the settling velocity is in the range of 10 meters per second in the case of the lapilli or of the order of 1 meter per second in the case of colesage or even centimetric velocities in the case of finage. And as a result, again here, the residence time is very, very changing. For lapilli, typically, it stays in the atmosphere of minutes. It means that it reaches medium distances, tens of kilometers typically, whether the colesage and the finage, they can travel long, long distances from 100 to 1,000 kilometers. Normally, the fine material can even reach several thousands of kilometers. Discuss implications because we have to distinguish between what we call the proximal clouds, which are the cloud very, very close to the bend, which are more concentrated. The cloud in the proximal locations has all these particles within. But as I said, the course of particles fall for very, very soon, producing volcanic fallout, whether the final particle can travel larger distances. So if we look at the cloud very far away from the source, what we will see in this distal cloud is that they are much more dilute. They are not concentrated. And they carry on, essentially, micrometric size particles. Whereas the proximal clouds, they are much more concentrated. They are optically thick. And they carry particles of all sizes. An important thing is that, apart from this passive transfer by wind adhesion and particle sedimentation and turbulent diffusion, some other phenomenon may also occur within a volcanic cloud. And probably one of the most relevant is the aggregation of particles. This is a phenomenon that of course depends on many parameters. And it's a phenomenon by which the fine ash particles can aggregate and form much larger sized particles. And this is essentially something that is, let's say, enhanced by the presence of water and that acts as a binding mechanism for these particles. The water or ice coating allows these particles to stick and to form much larger particles. These aggregates that, for example, you can see here a microscope, same image, how these aggregates look like. So it's, for example, these aggregates are composed by thousands of small ash particles. And they have a millimeter size. Obviously, these aggregates, they fall from the selling velocity of the aggregate, is much, much larger because they have a much larger size. And it means that when aggregation occurs in the volcanic cloud, it triggers or it causes a premature removal of mass because the aggregates form. So they settle down much, much faster. And we have clouds that are depleted in fine material. It is important to put aggregation in the models. But one of the problems that we have nowadays is that we still don't have a full comprehensive aggregation model. This is very difficult to model. We know how to do it. We know that we have to solve the so-called Smoluchowsky equation. But the problem is that doing this with all the particle size and all the degrees of freedom that we have here is really hard from the computational point of view. It is very, very expensive. Very, very expensive. And we have to do some assumptions that in most of the cases work. But in some cases, they do not work well. When we have the fallout of the material, we have a lot of impacts on the ground. Did I just put here some pictures of what happened when all these materials fall down on the ground? And we have impacts on the infrastructure. For example, what you see here on the top left is a picture of a town in Argentina close to the Chaitan volcano in Chile. And of course, if the ash fallout is substantial, we can have even a collapse of the roofs of the houses or the infrastructures because it's quite heavy, particularly if it drains after the fallout. Ash can become quite heavy. And if you don't clean it, it can cause a roof collapse. It produces also the fallout impacts on, of course, agriculture, on livestock because ash particles, they carry, they are fluid rich. And when the animals eat the grass that has so much, it can produce fluorosis to the animals, apart from, let's say, abrasion of the tooth and many other irritation of eyes, et cetera. Of course, it causes also impacts on the transportation network, for example, on the roads. Ash is very slippery, so you cannot drive if you have to clean the roads, et cetera. But probably the most, let's say, the highest impact is on air navigation, OK, and on air quality as well. So we have a lot of impact on civil aviation. And the main reason for that, there are two reasons. One is that the ash particles, they are very angular and in shape and very abrasive. Again, this is a microscope, an electronic microscope image of a typical ash particle, just for reference. This is 30 micron sized. And as you can see, they are far from spherical. They are very, they have a lot of holes, pores, and they are very abrasive. And you can imagine what happens when we have a cloud with these particles suspended and an airplane that is traveling at, let's say, 900 kilometers per hour impacts with these particles. It produces a lot of abrasion on many components of the aircraft on the windscreens, also on the blades of the turbine. It produces erosion, affects the fuselage of the aircrafts, the navigation instruments. If there is also some volcanic gases, for example, sulfur dioxide, it also produces a lot of corrosion on the metallic components of the airplane, et cetera. But probably, apart from that, which is already all these are problems, we also have the potential engine installed. Because when these particles enter the combustion chamber, they can melt and they can form a glass and they can clog the cooling system of the airplane and produce the engine stall. So this is something that we have to avoid. And this one is one of the main reasons by which we do this operational modeling of the clouds to prevent encounters with aircrafts. Apart from that, of course, the fallout also impacts on airports. And disrupts the normal operation of airports because you have to clean the runaways. And this is a procedure that is quite expensive and by consuming this, the pictures that I took in La Palma a few days ago of the cleaning operation of the airport. And you can see that people, they have to, let's say, with machines and manually clean all. Every time that there is fallout, you have to clean it to resume the operations and the normal operations of the airport. So this is what volcanic clouds are. Now, the question is, OK, how do we model that? OK, the objective, as I said, of modeling and forecasting volcanic clouds is to obtain where they are and where they will be in time and space or the trajectory and how the concentration within these clouds will evolve with time. And we have many families and many types of models in general, but all of them, the important point is all of them have three components. So on one side, we need first, a meteorological or a non-medical weather prediction model. It essentially tells us the state of the atmosphere in the future. So this is a 40. We need to know the wind field, the properties of the air like density, viscosity, temperature, moisture, if we want, for example, to include abrogation, precipitation rate for weather position, et cetera. So we need several meteorological parameters that are furnished by the meteorological models. That can be on seven scales. We can have global scale models, but we can also have regional scale models. Or even if we want to do very, very high resolution simulations, we might need to use some more local scale meteorological models. Of course, this can be, let's say, the typical foray gas if we want to simulate what will happen in the future. Or if we want to simulate what happened in the past, we can rely on any of the re-analysis data sets that exist in the world. The second component is the dispersal model per se, in which we model how the particles and eventually also the aerosols, so essentially the SO2, are transport. And that includes the different physical phenomena that occur in transport. So that's the effect of wind advection, the turbulent diffusion, the particle segmentation. That, as I said before, is very, very strongly dependent on the size of the particle. So we need to parameterize how, which is the settling velocity of these particles depending on the properties of the particles, on the shape, on the size, on the density, et cetera. Some of the models also take into account where a wet and dry deposition mechanisms. Wet deposition, of course, it can be in cloud or below cloud. In cloud, of course, when, let's say, we have water drops, water droplets that can coat volcanic particles and they can stick. And wet deposition is produced below cloud and it's effect that when it rains, these drops can drag the particles and can produce also some premature removal of mass in the cloud. Some of the models also contemplate the eventual occurrence of particle aberration. And of course, if we have, for example, SO2, we also need to have some chemical model or need to account for different chemical reactions or even in some cases, the different phase changes that might occur in these aerosols. And then we have a third component, which is the so-called emission model in which we need to define how the source term is. Source term I mean essentially the volcanic plume, so which is the properties of these particles and mass flux, the evolution of the mass flux in time and space. This can be an independent model or typically nowadays in most of the models, the emission model is directly embedded within the dispersal model. So actually, we just have two components, the net model and the dispersal model that has some emission model embedded within. Okay. The important point is that this emission model is characterized by what we call the eruption source parameters. We will see in the next slides. Of course, we have uncertainties in all the components. So we have uncertainties in the meteorological forecast. We have uncertainties in the dispersal model that for example might come from the different physical parameterizations that we have, some of them are not perfect, some of them rely on some, for example, the sedimentation velocity rely on experiments that some, let's say, analytical relationships that give us the settling velocity, et cetera. So there are uncertainties, but by far the most uncertain part of all these different components is the emission term. This is very challenging. And this is the main reason why that assimilation is needed. So what are these eruption source parameters that we have in the emission model? Third, we have the emission term. So we have to give this model essentially the start and the end time of each of the European phases. So when the eruption start, when it ends, or if the conditions of the eruption are far from steady, then they vary with time. We need to give a time series, and we distinguish typically different eruptive phases. So we have to know the starting and the end time of each. And the most important one is at which age do we put this material, at which atmospheric levels do we inject all this material? So this is what the injection height of the eruption column height, okay? Then we also have to give how the mass distributes or is released along or across this eruption column. And of course, the emission rate, that is the mass flux, the total mass that is emitted or that is released in the atmosphere by unit of time. If we look at the level of uncertainty, we might see that, okay, you can say that the starting and the end times and the cloud height, I just put it in green because they are often, I said not always, but I are often observable, even by just by visual observation. And the vertical distribution of mass, we more or less know how it distributes but how it distributes in vertical based on what we know from past events. So I would say that these have a moderate level of uncertainty. In contrast, the emission rate is quite uncertain. And this is very important because this is telling us the amount of mass that we are releasing in the atmosphere. And at the end, this dictates which is the concentration of the cloud and wind. All these models are based on the mass conservation equation. And with the exception of some terms or some phenomena like weight deposition or aggregation, most of the processes are linked. And it means that if we double the mass flow rate, we double the concentration value. If we do an error of 100% here, we do an error of 100% in the estimation of the concentration that we model as. I'm now assuming that everything is linear. This emission rate, we know also that it depends essentially or very importantly heavily, depends heavily on the column height, but it's very, very difficult to quantify in real time. And this is the main source of uncertainty of volcanic cloud forecasting. On the other hand, apart from characterizing the emission term, we also need to characterize the properties of the particles that we are injecting in the atmosphere that we are meeting. And that includes the particle site distribution, the density and the shape factor. Okay, so the message is that at the time of forecasting, we will have always a little bit and epistemic uncertainties. One important thing is that this emission rate is proportional to the fourth power of the injection height of the column height. And this has implications. First of all, on the model errors, because even if we do a small errors in the determination of the column height, this amplify and translate in large errors in the concentration, okay? And not only, and we will see in the second part of this talk how this is important for data simulation because the distribution of errors is not Gaussian anymore. And this will have implications. Just by now, just remember this. Okay, so there are several or many models that would say that our operation are different parts of the world. Some of them are Eulerian, some models are Lagrangian. These models are used by the so-called volcanic ash advisory centers and other institutions of national level to forecast volcanic clouds whenever an eruption occurs in some parts of the world. And what typically, I would say before the eruption of the LVL at Yokut in Iceland in 2010, these forecasts were more qualitative in the sense that they were just interested in saying if there is ash, no ash because the mandatory regulation at that time was just to delineate zones in which there is some ash, but the models didn't have to tell us how much ash, just yes or not, okay? This paradigm was very much criticized in 2010 because of all the disruption that this eruption produced in European airspace. And new guidelines were adopted based more on quantitative criteria on concentration threshold. For example, three levels were defined in Europe at the time based on the concentration values of zero, two, two and four milligrams per cubic meter. And this has important implications for operational systems because if you have to deliver a forecast with quantitative values, then we need to estimate with much, much better precision the emission term. This is the main weakness that we had at that time. So the question that the scientific community posed at that time in 2010 is how can we constrain the source parameters on the related uncertainties? And several strategies have been developed since then. The first one is based on, or I would say based on the use of ensemble runs. So okay, we have something that is uncertain. Take for example, the eruption hay. So we do an ensemble of simulations exploring all the possible parameter space. And then with that, we can do two things. We can do a deterministic forecast as we did before, but for example, taking the ensemble mean, the ensemble median or any combination of the ensemble members. But the advantage is that now we have uncertainty quantification metrics because for example, based on ensemble spread, we can have an idea about the uncertainty of the forecast. But when we have these ensemble based runs, we can also have improbabilistic forecasts. For example, by counting how many members verify a certain condition. For example, I don't know, concentration value or the detection threshold or et cetera. This, let's say, has been one family of modeling strategies. The other one is data simulation either considered in in situ monitoring how to quantify the source term. But this is quite difficult. This essentially means putting the instrumentation at the volcano to quantify the source term in situ. This in many cases is not feasible because we have more than 1,000 active volcanoes worldwide. Some of them are very remote in remote places. It's logistically is very difficult to have all of them well monitored. So it's more practical to rely on distal cloud observations or observations that are done away from the volcano. And then we can also have, of course, a combination of ensemble based run and data simulation as we will see later on. So let's spend few slides now on the observation of volcanic clouds. Actually, we can see volcanic clouds using many, many different instrumentations. For example, satellite based sensor. We can have passive monitoring or active monitoring. For example, are using lighters on board of satellites. But we also can see volcanic observed volcanic clouds from ground based instrumentation networks. For example, what you see here on the right is an image of the European early internet network of lighters. We can use, in some cases, the lighters that typically are deployed for other purposes, more for the study of the planetary boundary layer, et cetera. So for other purposes, but that in some cases can also be used to observe volcanic clouds, same as the little networks. And we also have, of course, air quality stations. And then we can also observe or measure, let's say, the concentration in volcanic clouds using research aircraft equipped with, for example, particle counters. Of all these three options, let's say satellite based and ground based or even aircraft based instrumentations, the most used one by far is satellites for several reasons because they can give much higher resolution. The density, of course, is much higher. Consider that satellites now give a kilometer size pixel, whether the density of a station of networks like early net is the one that you see here. So compare the density of this network with one grid at one kilometer resolution. But apart from that, satellites also have global coverage and that includes oceans, is something we don't have ground based networks in the oceans, instead satellites can give a global coverage, okay? So I would say for operational mode, satellite is the only one choice, but the other two datasets or the other two instrumentation types are also very useful for validation purposes. Typically we use ground based networks and if we have them, data from ICRAF to validate a posteriori over simulations. So one important question is how we can discriminate from a satellite volcanic ash clouds from other meteorological clouds or other clouds, for example, dust clouds or other types. This is a modest image on the color of the geological production. And here we can see clearly how an ash cloud looks like in the visible then we have lots of meteorological clouds and then we have some parts in which it is not clear whether this is a meteorological cloud or is an ash layer, no? This is very typical. And a very important step forward was done in the late 80s or during the 90s with let's say the development of ice detection techniques using satellites based on passive sensor monitoring. The idea is very, very simple. We have the Earth that is emitting in the thermal infrared. This radiation passes through an ash cloud and or an ash cloud, a cloud that we still don't know what this cloud is. But the important point is that the absorption that this radiation, the absorption of this radiation depends on the wavelengths and depends on what is in here. And this is then detected by the satellite. There was a very important, let's say, seminal work by Prata in the late 90s in which the so-called reverse absorption was applied to detect volcanic ash. And the idea is very simple is that he realized that the silicate particles are more absorbent at shorter wavelengths than water droplets in meteorological clouds. So they have an opposite behavior. So if we take the absorption at two different wavelengths, for example, 10.8 and 12, and we do the difference, in one case, this is positive for volcanic ice, this difference is negative whereas for meteorological clouds or water or ice clouds, this in principle should be positive. So doing this dual channel difference in principle, we should be able to discriminate one from the other. So this is how it works. We have here a modest true color image in which we see meteorological clouds, but we also see, we can imagine here the presence of volcanic ice. When we do this in the thermal infrared and we take this brightness temperature difference, we get something like that. So this is what we get when we do this reverse absorption mechanism. The most basic one, this is far from perfect because you see there is a lot of noise here, there is no specival and in many other parts. So actually what we do is not just doing this dual channel difference, but we apply many other filters. For example, we can correct or we can put a mask for cloud surface and this eliminates a lot of noise in this part. We can also correct for some zenithal view satellite projections that we might have, for example, in this case that the image was very close to the edge of the satellite and other corrections. But the important point is that at the end, after applying all these filters, in principle, one should be able to discriminate clearly on a set in principle, the volcanic ice from the other clouds. Okay, as we will see later, this is far from perfect but by now, let's say that we have a mechanism to separate or to highlight volcanic clouds and separate them from other types of clouds. But this is not a retrieval, this is just something that is telling us this detection algorithm, yes or no, there is ice and there is no ice and we want to know also how much or how much ash there is in the cloud. And for that, we need step further and this step forward is a retrieval in which we want to get the color of mass. So we have to combine this detection algorithm with some more, let's say, complex radiative transfer models that can tell us the properties or the effective size of the particles in this cloud and the mass per unit area. For example, this is what further step in the image that we saw before when we do a retrieval and we can retrieve the mass load. The mass load is the vertical integration of mass. So this is a zenithal view and what we see here is the mass per unit area. So we have just here, summing all the vertical column in the atmosphere, okay? So that's why the unit is per square meter. So we have many, many, let's say, sensors on board of several platforms. And nowadays this is just not an exhaustive list of what we have several platforms carrying different types of sensors. And we can have, for example, with geostationary satellites global coverage combining different, different satellites. It's important to distinguish between the geostationary observations and those that are polar orbiting that normally give us a couple of passes per day. So, which are the pros and the cons of observing volcanic loss from satellite. The advantage is that nowadays we have this large generation of geostationary satellites that give us a high frequency, let's say images every 10, 15 minutes, typically, on a very, very high spatial resolution, one to a kilometer pixel size. And they have global color. These are the advantages, this is clear. But this is far from perfect, okay? For many reasons. The first one is that the S-Cloud can be obscured but overlying meteorological clouds. Remember that we are considering here a passive sensing. So it is not active sensing what we typically have on board of geostationary satellites. And these absorption signals can be masked by the presence twice. For example, if ash particles are caught by ice, maybe they can be hidden and we can have, we cannot detect them. So we see areas of the cloud that are undetected by the satellites. These detection algorithms also can fail in detecting ash clouds that are optically thick, okay? And then another just thing which I want to draw your attention is that even if everything goes very, very well, we always have with the satellites a 2D view. It doesn't help you. So we don't have any, with the passive sensors we don't have any vertically resolved information of the cloud. So we don't know the cloud thickness and we don't know the concentration. It means that if we use this type of observations, we need to do some additional assumptions, for example, about the thickness of the cloud to infer the concentration, for example. So this retrieval gives us the mass per unit area and we need to assume a cloud thickness or to collocate these observations with some other observations in order to have a 3D picture of this cloud, okay? This is how collocation looks like. You see here, for example, two retrievals from this cloud in, you know, in Cordon Cauge Volcano. And what we get from the satellite, geostationary satellite are these as mass loadings, okay? But as I said, this is to the image of the cloud but we can collocate them with other observations. For example, we had here the pass of one polar orbiting satellite and what you see here, the green line is this image. So when we combine both geostationary and polar orbiting observation, we can really get is the only way to get is really 3D structure of the cloud and we can have an idea here about the cloud thickness and the average concentration within the cloud. Similar situation for SO2, the only thing is that SO2 is actually more easy to observe than the organic ash but there are also some, let's say some problems sometime with detection on retrieval of SO2. I think I'll leave it here. Maybe we can take a five or 10 minutes break and then we will go straight to the data simulation. Yes, you're correct. We will take a 10 minutes in the program and we will reconvene at 9.55. By the way, you can look in the chat, there are a few questions but you don't need to answer immediately about during the time question and answer. You make a wish to answer this question. Yeah, so there is time. If I do another 40, 45 minutes then... Yes, after that, we will have some 20, 15 minutes for questions and answers. Excellent. Now it's a break, enjoy the break.