Hello and welcome to the CMC markets Monday at market webinar update With myself Dave Madden today's date is Monday the 9th of April 2018. The time has just gone 1215 BST for the summertime quarter past 12 UK PM UK time As always with their webinars, I will leave the risk warnings on screen for you to have read through It's all fairly straightforward and it's all for all fairly simple It just will make my compliance department very happy and essentially states anything that is covered in this webinar It are my own personal views and opinions and comments And they're not to be taken as explicit trading or investment advice There's just comments and observations that I am making But while you're having read through those those screens those slides which are on your screen at the moment I'll just quickly talk about what's going on in the financial markets this morning So we've seen a bit of a bounce back in in global equities of the major but traders are for the time being at least cause cautiously optimistic It would seem over the weekend that President Trump is a bit optimistic himself that China will reach a deal It doesn't appear the matter Trump has taken the hard line and it appears that he previously Took the hard line and I was taking taking the more soft for a stance He believes that this isn't going to end in a full-blown trade war He believes that China and the Beijing government will will strike a deal in relation to the thinking of the trading imbalance between United States and China of course we had figures that last week showing America's trade deficit was at a nine and a half year high and Lo and behold the two regions which you had a highest trading deficit was number one China number two the EU So you can kind of see where President Trump is coming from but Mr. Trump does have a history of kind of acting In a quite an aggressive manner as a way of actually Joel they get to get the they get the argument going as we're to get the conversation started And then it kind of often becomes a bit more reasonable of time was on he does like to have you want to give the impression He is a bit unstable and an erratic and volatile and we're seeing that in the financial markets I'm with the time being we are seeing a bit more confidence coming back to the global equities with a major sell-off in US stocks On towards you know in the kind of the end of the session on Friday, and we have seen a bit of a bounce back We're calling the double a few of the points and the S&P of about 29 points Things are looking for any positive for the for the start That's basically the kind of major That's essentially the major news of the last 24 hours 48 hours If you go here take a look on the news and analysis section on our website Which would you be found here on our website scroll over here? We can take a quick look at what's the week ahead every Friday. This is posted up at the end of the week We got posted up talking about one of the one of the other the very different Economic indicators and also corporate stories to keep an eye up for the week ahead It's a good. It's always posted at the end of the trade week That's worth having a quick read through so we can see here the next couple of sessions today and choose They aren't really busy, but Wednesday is probably the busiest day of the week. We have Chinese CPI and PPI coming out This is this is obviously going to be a good Healthometer of how the Chinese economy is doing CPI is It has been rising recently, but PPI at the factory level has been has been dwindling So it could suggest it's actually a bit of a demand There's been a slight demand at the factory level which could lead down the line to a softer people to a softer CPI If you're trading high-grade copper or any of the commodities or mod or mining companies of the Australian dollar keep an eye on that Wednesday morning. We've filled your figures out from Tesco. That's not only going to impact Tesco You also probably see the rest of the British supermarket sector also play your M&S's your Sainsbury's and the likes Wednesday morning We also have UK manufacturing production industrial production and construction output I keep in mind the manufacturing sector in the UK is growing at a slower pace and the service sector in the UK It's growing at a much slower pace than expected and also the construction PMI report last week from the UK actually spoke to contraction territory. So There's another talk that the Bank of England might raise interest rates next month and So far there's some economic indicators recently haven't been to house that that's been called into question So let's see how the figures come in on Wednesday And Wednesday night was even we have the Fed reserve minutes from the from the March meeting when interest rates were hiked by 0.25% meeting expectations That the Fed minutes that gives we give us a more in-depth view upon the Federal Reserve are actually thinking Recently we've heard at the Federal Reserve are following the economic indicators rather than the kind of political talk That's coming out of Washington DC at the moment bearing in mind these minutes were taken before the most recent non-farm payroll figures Where we saw just over 100,000 jobs added in March well below the expected one of this expectation, but keep in mind The previous month's number was realized slightly higher to over 300 to 326,000 So when you out when you amalgamate an average March's numbers and February's numbers looks very positive. In the most recent report unemployment ticked up by 4.1% It's not great, but it's not the end of the world And also average earnings continue to rise. They picked up 2.7% media expectations So the most recent non-farm payrolls report on its own wasn't great But when you average it out with February report, it seems to be okay. It's probably those two months combined an average Apologize those two months combined an average should be in a position should be in a position to actually Average out the actual Those two months combined an average should actually be in line with the previous six months or so or average or so I apologize John in relation to unable to see this to the screen What you should see in our front of you is actually is is a picture of our trading trading trading website I'll put the problem resume, but I but I can but I am Other people you've signed into the webinar appear to be in a position where they're actually also seeing the See the screen as well In relation to Friday's Friday, we have the quarterly numbers first quarter numbers from Wells Fargo JP Morgan And and city group. It's also worth pointing out which I'm which I reference later on an entire video for this screen is Video for this webinar is going to be posted on our website You're posted on our inside section of our website later on. I also will be tweeting it out in relation to What's going on so there are the major highlights of things we need to keep an eye out for in the rest of the rest of the trading week In the rest of the trading week Take a look now at what's going on in terms of the some of the major markets I'll take a look now what's going on in the footsie with hundred So take a look here at the footsie with hundred In the last few last week or so our last 10 days as come off the March load is be pushing higher But quite aggressively in of the past number of sessions We can see here looking at the MacD indicated MacD Instagram's been a steady rise positive momentum So as the markets pushing higher that's being confirmed by the steady increase in positive momentum So what we could be so the the MacD indicator is confirming the upward move We're just about trading in around the fifth day moving average which comes into play in around the seven thousand two hundred mark It's previously active resistance as resistance on a couple of occasions And a couple of occasions We would need to kind of take out that level to actually kind of be more confident the markets in an upward Is regaining ground beyond that keep an eye out for the mid-march high of seven thousand two hundred and fifty six This level here, and if you go north of that keep an eye out for the late February high of seven thousand three hundred and forty And then if you take out that area Then keep an eye on the seven thousand four hundred price because that only is it as big like large the number It's also called size with the turn a moving average and if you go north of that If the markets beyond above this turn the moving average is broadly seen as a positive And if you do get that high we would have retraced a lot of the ground last beginning of the year But if the market can't fail Can't get over it see kept get past seven thousand two hundred And it fails to do that and turn over again We couldn't look to find the support in around the seven thousand one hundred area bit of consolidation there Seven thousand itself is a big psychological number I think us thousand seven thousand the big area to keep an eye for would be the marginal of six thousand eight hundred and thirty nine And of course if you take on that low, I'll be that then a new low for 2018 and we could be like getting back down towards six thousand eight hundred Well, what I'm gonna gonna do as all my Monday market webinars I'll run through the major indices a few a few qualities and few currency pairs all that very popular ones But 30 markets that you haven't but I haven't covered and you want me to cover Please feel free to pick me to type in the chat box and I'll do it So as you can see here the tax hasn't been isn't in a strong as a shape as if I see one hundred notice how this area everyone eleven thousand six hundred ninety two eleven thousand seven hundred is acting as A decent support this region here, but we have seen a fairly consistent series of Lower high so not overly can you know We really would need to be taken out some of the previous highs before you become more confident at the market is Is correcting itself? The markets in pushing higher here for the last week or 10 days That's we confirmed by the steady increase in positive momentum So the momentum is with the buyers and the market is pushing higher if you get north of the tour They moving average comes into play at twelve thousand three hundred and seventy we go north of there keep an eye off for the mid-march high my high merch which comes into play just 12,000 12,000 475 and if you go beyond that look towards the the high in February the late February high of 12,600 and then if you go north of that you could be looking at heading up towards the tour the moving average which comes into play at 12,668 and then if you go beyond that then we can become more confident that the market is actually more Market is going to push on higher from there But if you fail to actually push higher from these areas here of say twelve thousand three hundred seventy We could be looking at finding some support back in around the kind of twelve thousand area It's like a logical number and if you go south of there possibly down towards twelve eleven thousand eight hundred And then if you break this area this would be actually quite a crucial area for the backs Just under eleven thousand seven hundred eleven thousand six hundred ninety two as an actor as a bit of Support on a couple of occasions in recent months if you go north south of this That's that's the markets could be looking at you properly turning over. Let's up yet again I had back down towards summer in around the the lowest of February in or on the lowest of January in around 11,400 11,500 back towards here. I take a look now what's going on in the American markets So the American market like I said, I'm a fairly decent sell-off on Friday. This is this red candle here In relation to the American markets I'm not overly optimistic But as you can see here, there's been a large sell-off and it's been a steady series of Lower highs over the past seven or eight weeks. It's very consistently lower highs here But that being said we're still holding north of the two-day moving average on the Dow Jones And I think the kind of overriding issue is that while we remain north of the two-day moving average The eonic is going to remain a touch more on the optimistic side, you know the pessimistic side that being said if that metric is breached The overall sentiment Would change fairly sharply But as you can see here the market is kind of struggling to push higher So pushing higher from there and there to keep on that for would be the one or day moving average This area here is actually kind of it's converging with the fifth day moving average The area for the one-day moving average comes into play in a 24,000 and let's call it to say 24,800 Notice how the one-day moving average acted as both kind of support and resistance is a bit of consolidation In rather price metric in the middle of last month. If you go north of the whole day moving average Next area to keep on that for would be the March high 25,507 and if you go beyond that keep on that from the late February high of 25,821 Like I said, if you go south of the two-day moving average, which comes into play at 23,554 Then turn your attention to this price area here in from from early april which comes into play in around the 23,400 area in around here I think I'll south of that if we look at then towards the February low of 23,138 and if you go If you break below that Then we'll be creating new lows for 2018 And we could see a fairly decent sell-off. It could be heading back down towards this price area here of around 22,430 ish I'll take a look now at the s&p as a fairly similar looking chart where by we've seen lower highs in the past Five or six weeks, but we've also seen the market hold above the two-day moving average So like I said, we're not looking at the s&p 500, but as you can see it's a fairly similar looking chart to the Dow Jones Lower highs over the past number of weeks. It's failed to kind of really kind of shake off and fully correct The uh the January February sell-off But we're still managing to hold above the two-day moving average And if you can hold off the two-day moving average, we could be looking heading back up towards the testing the recent highs Which come into play Only from black glass. There is a 2672 Because north of that we could be looking heading towards the one-day moving average, which is also converging at the 50 moving average Uh, it just sound just south of 2700 I want to get notice how on a couple occasions We see some exhaust acceleration price actually in around the trade moving average or the one-day moving average rather It didn't quite act as support there, but it got pretty close to it and the complications here as well We saw the market trade south of the complications, but while it was pushing higher But it didn't actually manage on those occasions to actually finish below it So the 2700 area would be Be a wise action to keep an eye out for if you go north of that We could be looking at in this place here in around the 2760 I think on north of that to keep an eye out for the mid-march high of 2800 Once again, if you break south of the two-day moving average, that'll be that'll be quite a that that would be Fairly that would be reason to be bullish So it would reason to be bearish reason to be bearish if you go south of the two-day moving average It could be like you're heading back to the April lows Which coming to play in around the 2553 mark and then south of that and potentially back down towards the February lows 2532 And if you go south of that that'll be creating a new low for 2018 and it could take us back to 2500 Take a look at what's going on in the gold market. Like I said, I've covered the major indices just there I'll take a look at some commodities Gold the two all contracts. I take a look at the big four currency pairs But there are any markets that I hope that I haven't covered yet or I won't be covering as I've just marked out Feel free to just type in the chat box saying that I can ask me to have a look at them So what we can see here in the gold price Broadly speaking of the kind of big picture for the last few months The the mark the gold market has been broadly been pushing higher But recently it's a bit more on the kind of range bound area and And recently with the price of gold it's been broadly kind of edging lower gold has Done fairly well in that it didn't even get it's kind of range bound in say the higher end of the range would be around 1355 the lower end of the range about 13 1305 for the time being Gold is It's hanging above it's 50 50 50 50 moving average which comes into play around 1330 if you can hold north of that That's a possibility. We could look to kind of retest the last last week's high of 1348 and we go north of that We'll be looking towards the kind of late March high Which comes into play at 1350 1356 And also 3056 and then the February high Which comes into play at 1361 and then north of that we've been looking towards the 2018 high of 1366 But gold has been sort of range bound You know, you need to have a size of a break north of 30 to 50 to kind of really get to kind of really kind of Suggest all of this all of this range is sort of 1355 to get a 1305 It's going to be the range if you break south of 1320 We could be looking at back heading back towards the late March lows of around 1306 1305 I think I'll south of that the big psychological number 1300 will then be on the cards and in south of that not too far below that comes into play the tree the moving average at 1294 So the big picture over the last say nine months for the old market That's not too dissimilar chart from Brent, which we're looking at here to WTI Has been a silly in its upward trend, which is which has been for the past nine months The race needs to be coming off the coming off the boil a small bit So you can see here for even if you take a take a look over since since February basically after that sizable correction Higher high higher low higher high higher low. So still within this upward trend here fits in nicely with the upward trend since June 2016. So What we're seeing is we're seeing a bit of a decline in the price of all it's clearly struggled to get north of say the kind of 70 Testic and a 71 region here on Brent. It's grinding a bit lower here As you can see here, there's been a steady decline in possible momentum Swing now to negative momentum. So if we do see the market push lower We potentially see the negative momentum increase for a bit But bearing in mind if there's an upward trend since February which fits in with a wider upward trend Move to the downside and the old market could attract new buyers And this could be just a pause before the next potential move higher for the old markets So we could find some support come into play at the fifth of the moving average this blue line here at 66 90 And also notice how the fifth one of the moving average acts as supportive of resistance on a couple of occasions in the middle of last month That comes to the play not too far away from the 50 moving average that comes at the play at 67 It's about 55 these areas we could potentially see fresh buyers enter the fold because they have acted as supportive resistance in the past also And realizing that it's The trend of the last couple of months has been to the upside combined It fits in nicely with the wider upward trend. And of course, if you go if you do push north of here 71 with the area will be the first kind of portal call to the upside and if you go beyond that keep an eye out for 72 74 A 72 74 is a level that wasn't seen Since november 2014 And obviously if you go north of that would be then be creating fresh multi month of the year highs And that would be that would be quite a bullish indicator Take a look at a wti. Like I said, it's a fairly similar chart Both markets have been in the up and in upward trend since november last year Sorry, since june last year and not at nine months A nine a solid trend for after the past nine months And then if you take a look at a smaller notice, you can see here A wti has been pushing higher here over the last over months granted the sell-off of wti Is a bit more excessive than the sell-off in Brent So if that is you could have pushed below the 50 day moving average We may yet get some support from the 100 day moving average Notice how the markets were the sold-off in february and the sold-off in march They didn't quite get as low as the 100 day moving average So we could we could potentially see some fresh buyers into the fold At 100 day moving average which comes into play at 61 30 And if the market does continue to kind of wider upward trend that has been it We could be looking heading back and forth the 65 region up towards potentially kind of testing the 67 area And if you go north of 67, we would keep an eye on for that would create Multi year highs and we'd be looking towards at 68 69 And 71 and so forth But if the market does happen to continue the sell-off that has been recently If you do have a if you do have a close a daily close below the 100 day moving average We could be looking heading back down towards the the the march lows coming to play here Just north of 60 dollars a barrel and we go south of that We could be like getting back towards the february lows of 58 spot 10 Well, I'm gonna do now is I'll do a few currency pairs At 30 markets, you would like me to any any currency or other markets Commodity of indices that I haven't touched on actually want me to have a look at feel free to do so I'll just remove this The lows here from 22 15 Yes, I feel free to do type in the chat box a 30 markets. You'd like me to have it Take a quick look at So the kind of wider trend over the last number last for quite some time has been quite bullet bullish For the euro versus the u.s. Dollar as you can see it's been a fairly decent upper trend For quite some time higher highs and higher lows recently though. It's been a bit range balanced a bit a bit uninteresting It's really hasn't had the power to get up towards 125 but it's still firmly held north of the Of the merch lows of 121 54 But seeing as we are south of the 50 moving average I could suggest we are because there's been a pressure on the euro. We could be heading south again So while we remain south on the 50 moving average this level here, which comes in play at 123 35 We could be looking at Looking at Move to the downside and if you do move to the downside the near term We could find some support in at once by 22 15 Last week's low if you go south of that, we could be getting back to the apron low of one spot 25 54 and notice how that area coincides with the water day moving average as well. So That's something worth noting. And then if you go south from there, we could be looking heading back towards the the early january high Of 120 spot 92 But like I said, the wider trend for this market has you know over the last over the last Several several months has been very much to the upside. So it's it's more than likely that the wider upward trend will continue So do you manage to re retake the 50 moving average in at 123 spot 121 the spot 23 35 This price came from therefore would be the late march high of one spot 24 76 And then we look at potentially going north of 125 And bearing in mind, we haven't seen these sorts of levels north of 125 We've went High 125s Since 2014. So we will be talking four-year highs should be going north of say 125 60 ish And then of course Hitting four-year highs would of course be a three and a half year highs would of course be quite bullish in itself So like I said, if any markets want to have a look at feel free to shout out the big picture for the pound versus the US dollar is as follows if you troll on a trend line between the lows of march last year The lows of august last year and bring it right through okay There are a few occasions it didn't manage to trade south of that particular trend line, but that trend line has held up for for the past 12 months So anything north of this trend line Is is a which suggests the outlook for the power versus us dollar is positive You can see recently Over the past say five or six weeks the move has has been quite positive In fact If the water the fifth any moving average this blue line here acts as fairly decent support That comes to the play just south of the 140 number So it kind of works out that big psychological number 140 and also coincides with the moving average So the more indicators more kind of support areas that kind of combine together The more importance it holds So the market's pushing higher here the next area to keep an eye out for to the upside Would be the late march high of one spot 42 44 And if you go beyond that up towards 143 and 144 and then these are areas if you go towards 144 You wouldn't have seen that since june 2016 these are levels not seen Since the EU since the UK's EU referendum notice on this. This is the uh, this is the candle with the even the In relation to the the Brexit sell-off If you do happen to move south of 124 I don't think it's necessarily the end of the world for the power versus us honor We couldn't find some support in run the 139 area We found it's been an area for a lot of consolidation and quite frankly as long as we remain north of this Of this trend line I think I think we could see a wider push They could be wider push higher for the power versus us are to continue So we're looking heading back down towards here the support for the trend line We're coming to play in round the kind of one kind of 137 60 area And so if you go south of there, can we looking at heading back down towards In around the kind of 135 area Well, I'm going to do now Just got a question here What are the color groups for? Are you talking about the um, the the lines of the chart? Chris I don't fully understand the question Are you referring to the moving averages or different colors like, you know, the fixity moving averages blue And the water to moving average is in yellow and the turn to moving averages as in red. Is that what you're referring to? If you just want to kind of add on a bit more to that question, I'll have to answer it So that will not take a look at euro sterling On the interface what what is you talk about the trendy platform? I'm afraid Okay, so are you referring to? these I'm not entirely sure what you mean, but I think you know what you mean Are you referring to say This blue line here and this yellow line here and this red line coming up here as I'm referring to Would you please just Will you say where the x is do you mean this x here? I refer to this x here this x In the top right Is this the x you're referring to? If you can just answer the question again, that'd be fantastic The color groups you talk about these color groups along here this one here In relation to those little boxes, I mean when the numbers are flickering here We refer to where the numbers are here one spot 41 11 27 19 one spot 41 40 11 43 is that what you're referring to? I'm afraid I could you be clear, please? I still don't get what you're talking about Anything else you can add Okay, when you say the interface what exactly do you mean the interface? you mean of this When the markets flicker flicker colors This button here the buy button Stop loss take profit estimate a profit. Where are you seeing four little boxes? Okay, Chris. It's a possible for me to If you wouldn't mind typing in your email address I can actually probably contact you afterwards because Because I think this is this is kind of I'm a little bit unsure of what you're talking to I look like whatever I could do is after you finish up the Happily finish up the webinar and if you put in your contact details If you're putting your contact details on to me, I happily get in contact with you If that's okay with you or if you're on twitter feel free to contact me on twitter as well dmadden underscore at cmc markets Okay, I was on the euro dollar. Sorry euro sterling is what that's coming up to So in relation to euro sterling, uh, sorry euro sterling Has in recent me range about the last number of months But it could potentially be looking for heading a bit of a breakout possibly It's been fairly range around between say about 90 to the top end And uh 87 to the low end so about 350 range of the last hour months As you can see here it's been probably probably On the last year five the last month or so or three weeks You can see it's been a fairly obvious move to the downside the low here Last month took off the lows of the previous few months Which was gonna bam that should be a signal to you that The market is turning south the market push is higher here doesn't quite get north of the 88 runs out of runs out of steam there And it's turning lower yet again So it was suggested me that the market could be looking at retesting the recent low of zero spot 86 67 and if you break and if you go south of that, would they be creating They'd be creating a multi month low a low not seen Since uh since june of last year so about a nine month loss if you break zero spot 86 67 We could be looking heading back down towards the 86 area and 86 hasn't been seen on uh euro starting since may of last year And then of course if you go south of 86, it's the likely air We probably go even further possibly even test 85 But if you do manage to push higher on the push on higher from here The first year to keep an eye out for to the upside would be zero spot 88 zero zero Seeing the actors as resistant recently and then if you go north of that We could be looking at running into resistance as zero spot 88 89 The two of them will be average notice how this is in last month and acted as both support and resistance And if you go north of that, we could be looking at finding support Uh, you're calling it finding resistance at the march high of zero spot 89 67 I'll look at doing the us the u.s. Dollar versus the japanese yen Uh in just just now that I look to uh to wrap things up So the dollar yen um since november last year has been a fairly obvious downward trend So the market pushed lower here the lows of this selloff year took off the recent low It pushed higher failed to take off the recent highs trading a higher high Traded sideways for a bay and then it was lower low lower high lower low lower high lower low lower high So it's been a classic downward trend the last number of months But we are seeing a bit of a science of recovery the market started to push higher here The market bearing in mind if take a look at the lows that was that The lows that it was that only if you only recently were not levels not seen since november 2016 and the push higher here Um as I should actually pushed as the market's pushing higher here increase in policy of momentum to the pop So the mac d indy indy confirms the push higher in the ocean market itself If you do push on if you do hold north of the fifthly moving average which comes into play in around these levels Of say in round 10705 if you continue to push on higher from here Keep an eye out for the 108 level of psychological lower, but also area of consolidation In recent months, and if you go north of 108 you could be looking at a backup towards You kind of 109 or else the 109 spot 78 area But bearing in mind if you better fairly aggressive selloff in recent months So the possibility this move higher here may not last and if you go south of the fifthly moving average Again, we could be looking at testing 106 and the recent low of 104 63 and if you go south of that We could be looking heading back towards 104 Now seeing as it is there's there's been no other questions in relation to Marcus to look at I just want to point out on our trading platform the week ahead The economic calendar can be found on a market pulse fourth option down at market calendar You can see here gives you a breakdown of what economic indicators are expected to come out It give you the forecast and give you the previous reading also under market pulse You can find our insights which which is here So there'll be a video of this recording on market insights within the next hour Some of the trading updates that we do the analysis updates that we do throughout the session get posted to insights Some of them get posted to the news and analysis website, which I showed you at the top of the webinar Some we get posted to both also this section here chart forum, which is under market pulse second option third option down Chart forum take a screenshot of a particular chart. I write a few under words about what's going on the chart and potential Prices that are of interest Now from all of us here at CMC markets. I do want to thank you for your time Thank you for tuning in. Have a good trading week and good luck