Hello and welcome to NewsClick. Today we have with us a national Badra Kumar and we are going to discuss the current say, Ibrahim Broglieau in Saudi Arabia which has involved President Trump saying he believes that the crown prince has done no wrong and it's all the fault of other people. He's also presented a bill of 450 billion dollars for having said this one presumes. There's been a lot of criticism that Trump is cynical but hasn't this been always the US policy that they have supported shall we say human right violators when there was money involved or American interests and opposed quote unquote human right violators when they're against American policy? Absolutely. You know it's from the point of view of the international community the stunning thing about this statement is that Trump has done as a favor. You know this is US foreign policy you put it you nailed it you know it's completely self-centered devoid of any principles you call it pragmatism realism whatever that is using sophistry but ultimately doing what's in America's interests and any kind of compromises with principles or justice or fair play is possible if the objective is in terms of bringing some returns for America. What Trump has done is completely consistent and if you noticed it on the webpage of the White House this statement starts with the slogan America first. This is really though the caption says it's on Saudi Arabia is really not about Saudi Arabia it's America first. He starts the statement with that slogan which is there on the website in italics and he ends the statement with this America first. So you see it's a statement on America first basically. Historically speaking this has been the American foreign policy and he's reiterated it no American foreign policy president has ever dared to say this as openly and candidly. No fig leaf. No fig leaf and he's completely maybe he said it with vengeance because he had a predecessor whom he hates who always used to speak about American exceptionalism but he's made it very clear that that is completely bogus. There's no such thing as American exceptionalism. It's sheer greed of the United States and its capital. It goes to the credit of Trump that he brought this in. Why did he bring it in? He brought it in not to spite Obama or not to you know make a confession or anything like that. He sizes up that the kind of line that he's going to take on Saudi Arabia will have the highest acceptability in the American public opinion if he projects it as what it is really that this is in the American national interest. He's giving 450 billion reasons why the United States public should support him on this. And that in turn will make the lawmakers in the US Congress think twice if they try to blackmail Trump or pressure. There is always a method in Trump's madness. He clearly anticipates that the likelihood of more damaging materials to come and these can come from sources other than American sources. We know that Turkey is sitting on a lot of information and he knows it too. So therefore if you analyze the statement closely what do you see there? He has not supported the Saudi stance at all. He has taken a detour to justify why the preservation of this relationship is of the utmost importance for the United States. He has even mentioned there that the Crown Prince Mohammed Salman may have known it. Maybe he has not known it. He has even left it open. So he's hinting there that there may be a requirement for a plan B. This may not be the final position. Meanwhile what he has done is he has praised the Saudi Arabians for being a consistent ally of the United States and in the bargain he has slipped in a few demands. He's told the Saudi Arabians that he expects them to bangle the American military presence in the Middle East. He praised them to the heavens that they have been the strongest supporter of the United States in its fight for fight against radical Islamic terrorism. Which as we know has been underpinned by Saudi Arabia. Can there be a more cynical statement than that by a world statesman that Saudi Arabia is so lily white that it is America's strongest supporter. Now this is a country which probably had its hand fully in the 9-11 attack on the World Trade Center in the United States. That's the country that Trump is praising. But then the flip side is he is telling them look buddies the money must continue to flow. So you see it's a very carefully drafted statement extremely ruthless in its strategic calculations. Secondly he has gently reminded them that you promised me when I came there in November last year that you would invest 450 billion dollars in the American economy and this was reinforced or the reiterated also when the Saudi crown prince later visited the United States for projects relating to America first. And then he has also said that this also includes 110 billion dollars for purchasing arms and he has also mentioned the companies from which the Saudi Arabians have agreed to pocket, Boeing and all that to buy. Now it has come out in the American press that the Saudis are not done anything on this arms purchases really so far and that all he has said about this creating tens of thousands of jobs in the U.S. is all in the air only. So he has linked that with the Kashukji issue. This is not just about money. This is also about and I am going to substantiate the point which I wanted to make in the downstream that this is a tall demand for the Saudis and for what reasons and there is going to be a problem here. So you have to bangle the military presence 450 billion dollars out of that a segment of 110 million which is outright purchase which you know how lucrative defense deals are which means basically transferring wealth from Saudi Arabia to the United States. Then comes this question about there is a major contradiction here on the question of oil. Now the relationship was anchored on the understanding between Franklin Roosevelt and the Saudi king in 1945. In the immediate aftermath of the Yalta summit when the war was ending and the Americans were already looking at the post war to scenario and preparing themselves for a quantum leap on the global stage as a superpower. They are just arriving as a superpower and the biggest underpinning they gave for that quantum leap was this relationship with the Saudi Arabians. This went worked splendidly well for both sides. This is really dominating all oil deals in dollars which was the strength of the dollar economy. Yes that is yeah the Saudi Saudis would have seamless political security support from the United States and in lieu of that like to use George Kennan's words famous words those are our resources. The resources will be handled by the United States. This was the whole package at that time. Now there has been a phenomenal shift in the calculus behind this deal in the most recent years. Shale America's diminishing dependence on the Saudi oil and America's growing profile as an oil exporter oil and gas exporter. So the two countries have now become virtually competitors for the world market. We are moving into a different phase altogether. Not only that there is a clash of interests. Clash of interest in so far as the shale oil needs a price which is high enough for the investments to bring in returns. About 70 dollars. Yes yes something like this. But then the point is the shale oil after investments have been made and if the production becomes in a big way and the export turns out etc it can come down also. But on the other hand if the price is too high it will hurt the American economy which is in a boom undeniably today and the credit goes to Trump in the upcoming 2020 presidential poll and therefore certainly between now and 2020 the price should not show up in a way that it will become a factor of domestic discontent socially economically and so on and certainly western allies but Trump doesn't think about western allies. So there is a clash of interests here because it's very well known that Saudi Arabia is in financial difficulties. You know we have a conception that Saudis have a lot of money to throw around but that's not really the case now because there's a growing unemployment there's a very big unemployment problem and it's a very young society rising expectations and the kind of a subsidy which used to be given to people is no longer sustainable and this Crown Prince's program called Vision 2020 2030 and now it may be I read extended as 2035 is basically in two three directions. One is this that they should reduce their dependency on oil and should diversify their economy and secondly they must attract a lot of investments in Saudi Arabia from in terms of FDI and thirdly to find resources for this ambitious program. They have to find resources. This is a different ballgame altogether and one of the ways that they can get this resources is in terms of putting on the market the Aramco. Aramco shares public IPO. Now the main reason why Trump went to Saudi Arabia fairly well known in all people who have been following this is that he wanted Aramco to be listed in New York. Wall Street and then what happens is this equity will be more or less cornered by the American companies. So even though it is five percent only you know Aramco's market value is rewarded as somewhere about some observed amount you know some few trillion dollars worth you know I mean not many countries come even say anywhere near that close to that. So this is a big deal for the Americans but Saudi is a assistant because there is a legislation which allows these 911 victims to sue Saudi Arabia. So they were afraid that if the IPO takes place there they may get into very serious trouble so they're hesitant and the IPO which has to have been this year has been postponed to next year and maybe even beyond that and meanwhile they even started discussing about places like Shanghai to have this IPO. To have it outside the jurisdiction of the US courts. So I'm placing on the table the contradictions on the oil question that have shaped up you know between the two countries keeping 1945 as the benchmark and see how the situation has changed today. It's not easy for Saudi Arabia to fulfill Trump's demands apart from 450 billion dollars. Their interest lies in oil prices going up which has taken them to the Russians and now they have a back to back deal with the Russians. Saudis are really no longer bothered about OPEC they are having a bilateral arrangement with the Russians bilateral understanding with the Russians to decide where the oil price is to be and we know well even though the Russians have budgeted for a price of 54 billion dollars 54 dollars per barrel as oil price for their economy to be functional without any deficit problem and so on and with cushion for various social programs which Putin has lined up money is always welcome you know and so you know the high oil price not very high because you know the they will have other counter effect on the market in terms of dampening the demand and so on a recession is not something which Russians will want so but sufficiently high. So you see there is a three way thing today taking place the United States wanting to prescribe control the oil price and the Saudis and the Russians also having their own interests in the situation and are cooperating very deeply. So in this statement Trump has literally told the Saudis to come back and have it sorted out with the Americans how this they can do it I really don't know.  You will deduce correctly the political message in this in two three directions one is let me put it in first term first in first in first person singular I am facing a lot of flux from other quarters that I should punish you but I am not doing that I know that you have done a horrendous crime is revolting but I don't care because I value our relationship and then I he says I value the relationship for XYZ reasons which if you turn around becomes my wish list now you must fulfill now you must fulfill if you go through the complete statement you will find that he has not defended the Saudi stance even once that's not the issue for him as I am not bothered about it I am coming to that I am not bothered about the right and wrong of what you have done but I am under pressure so now therefore I am a stakeholder for these reasons that you promised so much and that matters to me so what is the corollary if you don't do this buddy then there is going to be a problem you know of course if we see the other part of the US foreign policy assassination drones use of drones to quote unquote take out people baseball cards who are going to be taken out every Tuesday this is a part of the US policy today and they have also supported Israel and its assassinations in different parts of the in West Asia so they have never been particular about this issues as the claim for others this is all the time we have a news click today we'll continue to continue to discuss West Asia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other issues in the region with Ambassador Bhadrakumar and on other programs


Welcome traders, another technology expert with me, Patrick Manley, I want to draw your attention to developing opportunity, we're looking at the Kiwi dollar on the daily time frame been correcting higher here in the trend channel, we got a big sell off yesterday sitting right at the trend line support, now I'm looking for this trend line to break and then I'm looking for some follow through to the downside and using protective stock just above today's highs and the daily VWAP, looking at least for a move down to retest the 7064 area then if we can extend through there, look for monthly range support 69-63 and through there we'd have a quality objective down to 6790 versus the swing higher here at 70303, as always traders, plan the trade, trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk, until next time, thanks very much.


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What's up navigation traders welcome to this week's video update today is Friday, October 25th Here's where we review all of our alerts all of our positions for the week And before we do that, let's jump into the community and talk about who got caught being hot This week goes to our friend a K Congrats a K. You got caught being hot. He's been jumping in Answering a lot of other traders questions sharing trade ideas. So all good stuff plus I think he's posted one of the better Gifts in the community so far. It looks like a dollar ride in a roller coaster SPY. I love it So congrats a K. Keep up the good work. We love we love all the engagement going on in the community Everybody helping each other. That is what it's all about So let's jump into the alerts starting with Monday the 21st and And the first trade was an opening trade in DIA So we put on a new iron duck in DIA with 11 days to expiration And so let's take a look at the platform to see where we're at. Here is our DIA duck Because he prices moved up higher since we put this on so it's way up here and So just holding this until next week November November 1st. So we still got seven days to expiration. So we'll be looking at this potentially next Friday or sooner so One thing I wanted to mention and I actually just did another video on this that I'm going to be adding to the iron duck course And that is you know at what point, you know if price runs up higher at what point? Do we just take this off early and book that beak profit? So I wanted to put some parameters around that and so kind of what I've what I've come up with and you can come up with your own Parameters, but this is what we'll use for the alerts as it relates to iron ducks And that is what I what I like to do if you if you move your price slice from the breakeven point if you move it up right here to the edge of the beak and And then look at the probabilities from that standpoint What I want to see is is that there's less than a 10% chance that price is going to go below that beak area So in other words, we can get more profit than the beak if there's less than a 10% chance Then we're more more likely most likely just going to close it out and book that Beak profit and you can see we're at over 25% chance of still being able to get back to that max profit zone So on DIA. Well, we're gonna give this some more time for sure But I just wanted to kind of put that out there and and you'll see that in the iron duck course Well, we'll be talking about More specifics about that so look for that that that video is being edited and will be put into the course here Here in the next week or so The other pieces that we have on in DIA. We've got a couple of short call vertical spreads One is way in the money. So we'll be looking to roll that next week or potentially. Yeah, we'll probably roll it We're kind of using these for our short delta exposure and then the other one you can see is is within range still here So just continuing to hold that for some more short bias Next trade was an opening trade in SPY So we added an iron condor in SPY out in the December cycle Which at that time had 60 days to expiration and then at that point we were still holding our other iron condor So the very next alert we went ahead and closed that one booked over 50% of max profit on that piece And so then we're still holding this one. You can kind of look at this as almost a roll I mean this one has five contracts. This one has four, but we were basically just repositioning this out in the next cycle and So on the platforms, they don't support rolling four-legged spreads because that's basically an eight-legged transaction So essentially, we just closed that one out and then reopened this one and you can see prices Still well within range here just kind of playing the waiting game waiting for some more time to pass in SPY Next trade closing trade in SPX. So we had an iron duck in SPX as I mentioned price continued higher There was less than 10% chance of price coming back into our duck head So we went ahead and booked a duck duck beak profit on that one. So we closed that out now We do have another SPX iron duck on so let's take a look at that and So this is this is kind of what I'm talking about here. So if price is way up here So at what point do we take this off? So I've got my price slice set right to the basically right at the long call so 2940 is where this is set and You know, we've got about a over 11% chance that it might come back So if this thing continues higher, we're just gonna go ahead and close that out and book a hundred thirty five bucks and move on and that allows us to redeploy that capital and And put on another high probability trade Next trade opening trade in BA. So we did a an earnings iron duck We are in the heat of earning season and so we put this on with just three days to expiration BA announced earnings at this point. It was the next day, but today when I'm recording this is Friday So this is the last trading day. So let's go. We still have this trade on If you take a look you can see prices right here So the plan on this is I'm gonna go ahead and just let this expire a couple reasons one It costs us commission I'm trading on toss so it costs us commission to get out and then and if we just let it expire with tosses new Commission structure there are no assignment or exercise fees. So if we just let it expire right here One will get exercise one will get Assigned and they just cancel each other out and we'll just keep that big profit in this case 55 bucks So that is the plan on BA now by the time you're watching this you will have already received an alert Letting you know that but I'm recording this with we got about an hour and 13 minutes before the bell For the closing bell on Friday. So that's the plan on BA So we'll end up booking a profit of 55 bucks beak profit on that one most likely unless something Dramatic happens and price comes way down and we hit a duck head, but doesn't look likely Next trade we did an opening trade in RUT. We put on one of our weekly double calendars And we did this with the front week with eight days and the back week with 16 Now we used a shorter duration for the back week So in the course in the weekly income course We talk about putting these on with six to eight days in the front week and then back week having closer to between 21 and 22 days Between 20 and 22 days, but in this case I didn't I just didn't like the risk reward and that has to do with how low implied volatility is So we went ahead and shortened up our duration on that back week to give us a little bit better Probability the other thing I mentioned is we would exit if the loss exceeds for 50 a contract Which is higher than that 25% like we talked about in the course But because of this risk reward we were able to give it a little bit more room So I'll show you what I mean on on this one So here it is now price has moved up at a center since we put this on With prices moving higher and when we put this on we had a max profit of closer to 900 now with implied volatility shrinking I mean just completely contracting today You can see our break evens they started out right here where the price slices are but they've moved all the way in here and Our max profit has has decreased as well. So You know, we've got about a thousand a little about 1,100 bucks as far as our buying power To put this on so, you know if we get down about 400 450 bucks Which would be somewhere out here if it continues to the upside or down here if it if it reverses and Of course if it reverses implied volatility is gonna expand and these break evens are gonna expand again So we'll see what happens, but we want to risk only about 400 to 450 bucks on this trade Next trade closing trade So we had a short strangle in oil for slash CL booked over 50% of max profit on that one great trade in CL Earlier today. We actually put another one on and so I'll get to that here in just a second Next trade we did a another earnings iron duck in this one in Tesla we did this just with two days to expiration and And this one just blew up to the upside. So let me let's take a look at chart of Tesla And that's the beauty of having this no upside risk because this thing jumped about 20% Right after they announced earnings. Well No risk to the upside. So we just went ahead and booked that big profit and we were out now The one thing I wanted to mention is I was actually looking at putting on a post earnings Shortput vertical just like we teach in the course if a stock opens well above its expected move Then a lot of times it'll continue higher now I didn't put one on because this opened up so much above the expected move You know, I typically like to be in that, you know One standard deviation up to two But this opened up so much higher that I just went ahead and passed on even doing that However, if anyone did take that you got rewarded today because it just continued to push higher I mean Tesla's on fire just just in these last two days, you know before the earnings announcement is trading at 253 Now it's at 327 just a crazy move higher. So Hopefully guys some of you guys caught some of that Next trade was a it was the closing trade in Tesla. So we went ahead and booked that beak profit that I mentioned And so we are out of Tesla And then the next trade Amazon whoo, this created some anxiety in the community people were People are getting a little nervous. So I want to talk about that. So we did another earnings duck in Amazon and with this one just with one day to expiration and So let's take a look at our Amazon trade Well, first of all, let's look at the chart and this is the daily So it right after earnings, you know, it opened down here and it's rallied all day ever since then But that doesn't tell the real story. Let's take a look at a intraday chart. Let's look at a five-minute chart. So This is this is overnight. So right after they right after the market closed They announced earnings and this thing dropped like a rock. It was down over two times the expected move And so if you can imagine You know people were in the community were freaking out because price was way down here. I mean, we were gonna take pretty significant loss if if price stayed there and It's so interesting to see people's emotions You know, it's a couple people saying I'm never trading the strategy again and you know Blah blah blah. Anyway, a bunch of stuff. It's it's kind of it's kind of funny But but the bottom line is this I Know I harp on this all the time But it all comes down to position size if your position size is small enough that even taking a max loss on this I mean, we're talking 1,600 bucks. It's not like that's a tiny bit of money But if you're putting this on and you're not willing to take, you know a loss of you know, we're you know Our max profit 615 so theoretically we would want to exit if it got down 615 bucks if you're not okay with taking that then you shouldn't be taking the trade at all You know, everybody thinks about the upside now price is not gonna move down that much, you know, Amazon's a great company blah blah blah But the reality is if you're not willing to take the max loss on this trade You shouldn't be trading it meaning it's probably too big of a trade for your account Now we only did one contract and so you're saying well, I can't really get any smaller You know and that's true, but if that's the case, don't don't even take the trade I mean it you've got to prepare for the worst situation Now what happened going back to the charts? So it was down way down here Then around the conference call or a little after it rallied back up a little bit still look like we're gonna potentially take a decent loss Overnight it started to grind higher and then into the open and then it just took off to the upside So I know a lot of people well several people in the community Just closed it out as soon as the market opened and they got out for basically a scratch trade I know a lot of others held it a little bit longer and ended up getting out at 30 50 60 70% of max profit, which is awesome We ended up we ended up just holding it. I'm still holding it right now again We're about an hour a little over an hour before the close and most likely now I'm gonna get beak profit. So obviously those who took their profits early would benefit more But I mean this thing I mean what a crazy move it moved from all the way way down here all the way up into our beak You know it was it opened and price was right dead center in our in our duck head And so I'm just kind of holding it and it started just grinding higher grinding higher grinding higher and And then popped up into the beak area So, you know good for good for you guys who managed early, but really I mean the mechanics over time Say that you're you're better off just holding this closer to expiration now There's always gonna be one-off situations where you end up taking a loss when you would have had a profit And there's a situation like this where I'm gonna end up taking less of a profit Then if I would have taken it off early But I'm gonna stick to the mechanics because I know the mechanics are going to benefit me greater Over time and I really think that as as traders you need to have those mechanics You know if you're just playing it on gut feel oh this one I'm gonna get out early, but next time I'm gonna I'm gonna be mechanical or you know this time I'm gonna you know take it off for a scratch. Well you missed out on a lot of profit Or in this case a little bit of profit by doing that So I you know I think you got to stay mechanical with these things. I know it's your money I know it gets emotional. I know you're scared overnight And so you're just happy to get out at break even and I I get that but the same time You've got to stick with the mechanics because the mechanics are what are gonna make you the most profitable Over time and taking that emotion out of the trade. So Congrats on everybody for for those who did make a profit on this trade Like I said, I'm gonna hold this all the way up until close to the close Maybe we can get a little push lower back into that duckhead probably not but we'll see There is a chance about 28% chance that it's gonna get lower than the beak here So we'll see what happens You will have already received the alert because I'm recording this before the market closes But that's that's just kind of what I'm looking at here Next trade opening trade in Baba so Alibaba announces next week and What we did here is we just put on a pre earnings long straddle now This is where we're buying a straddle So if you're not familiar with this concept the only time we really do this is leading up to earnings And the reason is is because typically implied volatility expands and if we can just get a decent price move up until earnings We can a book a nice profit We're never gonna hold this through earnings because obviously we get the IV crush after the announcement so we want to be out By 1031 next week on this one, but let's go to Baba and take a look at where that's at It's up about a percent today But still you know in this range here So we need a significant move higher or a significant move lower the good thing about this and the implied volatility leading up to earnings Is it typically? Mitigate some of that theta decay so when this type of position we do not like theta decaying And so you can see if I put my my marker right there. You've seen you've got not minus 99 in theta so we want this to happen fairly quickly and And the reason I like to put this on let's go back to a daily chart in this situation is Look what implied volatility has been doing. I mean, it's just been contracting contracting contracting Before the earnings announcement, so we're hoping that next week before the announcement happens We get a nice pop it implied volatility and that price either moves, you know a decent chunk up or down So that's the plan if not, we're just gonna close it out right before earnings and and move on Next trade rolling adjusting trade in SMH So we had a short strangle in or we have a short strangle in SMH got down to 21 days to expiration So we went ahead and just rolled this out to December rolled our puts up from 116 to 120 And then we just kept our call strikes the same So there's a little very little value left in the puts and with 21 days We just we just rolled the whole whole spread out to the next cycle. So let's take a look at SMH and And this thing's been stronger the last few days.  So we got close to our break even so this is where price is Right now just kind of hanging out in the upper end of that range And so we'll just continue to manage this as needed I'd like to add to this but implied volatility being as low as it is I'm just I'm not gonna add to this we'll continue to manage this and adjust and enroll But unless we get a spike in implied volatility, we're not gonna add to it at this point and then lastly we did an opening trade in CL so we jumped back in the oil pool and Sold a strangle there with 52 days to expiration Planned volatility has been contracting, but it's still IV percent still over that 50 level got in was about 53 So let's take a look at that. It's gonna be pretty close to where we put it on you can see dead centered So just gonna wait for some time to pass before we do anything in that trade Let's go through some of our other positions starting actually before I do that. I want to mention Going back to these earnings iron ducks and earnings trades a lot of big earnings next week including Apple Alibaba beyond meat Facebook Google Shopify all big liquid stocks that we can be placing these trades on and so be on the lookout for some more earnings related alerts and and And in the community people will be posting trade ideas for for earnings as well So make sure you check that out Ford slash 6b. This is the British pound. So we've got this adjusted strangle on here. You can see we since we've rolled this We're up 900 bucks. We're still down a little bit on the trade a couple hundred bucks So if we could get a little bit more down movement a little bit more theta decay will be in good shape here We've got you know, we've still got 42 days to expiration on this piece. So not looking to roll out in time, but Just looking for some more time to pass Yes, we've got this long Long put vertical and you can see with the strong market prices moved out of range So we'll look to potentially roll this one next week extend duration. We're keeping this on for that short Delta exposure In gold, we've got an iron condor now This one could could be taking off taking off here. We're a little over about 50% of max profit I haven't taken it off yet because Just trying to collect a little bit more theta The other thing is if you look at the options the January options have not come out yet So I do want to add to this one The implied volatility continues to stay high in gold But you can see it goes from December to February with 95 So there's nowhere to really reposition this one yet. So we're just kind of holding on letting for some more time to pass nothing wrong with Booking a little bit more profits potentially So that's the plan in gold in Natty gas we've got these two different pieces of our short strangle. They've got 31 days to expiration So really just holding these waiting for some more time to pass could use a little bit more up movement to get back into center But in good shape there ZB We've got this adjusted short strangle in ZB trying to get back to profits in bonds and Could use a little bit of up movement in bonds to benefit that piece now. We are at 28 days So, you know by next Friday, we will roll this Roll this out to the next cycle. So look for that late next week and if we look at the Let me go to TLT when I look at where the implied volatility is so we're still really high IV percentile of 73 You know, so we may look to add to this bond position So if price can whoops, I'm not sure what happened there If price continues lower, you know around this area here, we might look to add another centered Strangle on there assuming implied volatility continues to stay high. So that's the plan going into next week and in wheat we've got two pieces here one of which is a A Previous part of an iron condor, which is a short call vertical You can see prices come back into range for us, which is good if we get a little bit more down movement We'll just go ahead and close that one out and then we've got another centered iron condor here Or you can see we've got some profit, but not enough to take off yet. So just playing the waiting game on that piece Apple which announces earnings next week has got we've got this long put vertical on We've been just holding this for that short delta exposure will continue to do so I mean Apple's just been on a tremendous run again. And so hopefully we get a little bit of a relief pullback After the earnings announcement, we'll see we'll just continue to manage as is We're just again we're holding it for that short delta exposure and we're at about two and a half to one on that ratio for so for all You new members we like to keep a ratio of short delta in our portfolio to help protect us from those vicious Downside moves. So we so and we do that in relation to our position So, you know, a lot of our positions are premium selling positions. So we're collecting that theta So we use a ratio of short delta or short bias in our portfolio Beta weighted to SPY and we like to keep that in a range of about five to one So for every one dollar of theta, we like to have anywhere from one to five of Short delta and you can learn more about that. There's a couple of blog posts How to trade options like a professional and managing your portfolio using delta Just search for those on our blog if you want to explore more information on that Mentioned Amazon Amazon needs to come down for me. I needed that kid on Amazon B a I mentioned that one Baba I mentioned de so we've got this Long-put vertical, excuse me short call vertical in de see prices right here. Basically where it was when we rolled it So just waiting for some more downside to benefit that I Mentioned di a IWM kind of a similar thing We've got it in this a long-put vertical that we've been holding for short delta exposure or that we put on for short delta It's it's moved out of our range with this strong up move So we'll see if we can get a little bit of a cyclicality a little bit of a reversal into next week to help that one IYR this one's kind of in a similar position as gold where we've got a good profit But just holding on to this a little bit longer Get a little bit more. I was hoping that we'd get a little bit of a pop and implied volatility starting to here Now if we reposition this in the next cycle, I don't I don't necessarily need IV percentile It'd be up to 50, but I'm hoping to just get a little bit more, you know, at least above 20 to to help Receive a little bit more premium in those options. So that's the plan in IYR to potentially Lock in the profits in this one and extend it by re re-entering or re Yeah re-entering it in the next cycle QQQ we've got two sets of short call verticals here You can see price is just outside of our range. So just looking for a little bit of downside to benefit that I Mention RUT. I mentioned SMH SPX SPY XLK kind of a similar situation here. This one's in November We've got 21 days to expiration so we'll be looking to address this one potentially next week and Roll that out to get back into a positive theta position and then XRT is a short strangle. We put this on pretty tight This hasn't been rolled or anything. So this is exactly how we put it on price has moved up near the near the upside break Even and we've still got a little bit of premium in those puts in that untested side You can see the difference between the pink line and the green line So we still got a little little juice in those so I haven't haven't made an adjustment yet Now we are at 21 days to expiration. So we could have potentially rolled this out to you to December today I'm just gonna give it over the weekend if we see if we can get a little bit of a bounce bounce lower Before we do anything if you know if we I mean if we get a big move lower and we're at a profit We may just close it even though we're at not it You know the percentage of max profit that we're looking for or we might potentially roll that one out So we'll see we'll see where everything is going into next week All right, that's all the trades that is all the those are all the positions everybody have a great weekend Come back for earning season the heat of earning season next week. Look forward to it. See you in the community talk to you then


How Mandarin Chinese helps me in teaching English. Foreign language experience is complexed on so many different levels, it is a window into a different culture, often a different country and even a different paradigm of thinking. There is a multitude of language experiences people can have, each with their own intricacies and uniqueness. As a native English speaker from South Africa, living in China has provided me with extraordinary foreign language experience. The most difficult language. Mandarin, the national language of the People's Republic of China, as many would attest to is extremely challenging. One could argue that it may even be one of the most difficult languages in the world. It is so complex, especially for English speakers as the structure of sentences is effectively opposite to English. It is also a tonal language, so pronunciation is critical but more interestingly it is structured in a way that resembles life in China. It is a practical language, and from my experience almost black and white, which after living in China for many years is not dissimilar to daily life. In saying this, Chinese or Mandarin is incredibly descriptive and tremendously vast, similarly to other ancient languages with a rich and wonderful history. Benefits of Mandarin Experience Starting to learn this special language, provided me with many different experiences. Firstly, it adds to one's daily life experience in a foreign country, the local people embrace you more and appreciate your willingness and acceptance of their homeland and culture. This was aptly contextualized by Nelson Mandela, when he said, if you talk to a man in a language he understands, that goes to his head. If you talk to him in his own language, that goes to his heart. Additionally, it teaches you so much more about the world you live in, the way of thinking and the unique approaches to life. Finally, it helps you become more patient and understanding in your engage with non-native speakers of any language. You learn to be more considerate and respectful, which are great characteristics to develop or hone in on in one's general life. My experience thus far in learning Chinese, while still at the early infancy stage, has positioned me better to engage in Chinese society and work with non-native English speakers. As the historic German writer Johann Wolfgang von Gute once said, those who know nothing of foreign languages know nothing of their own. I strongly endorse this statement and from my personal experience, as a native English speaker, post-learning Chinese, I have challenged the English language more, spent more time researching about the English language and ultimately building a deeper connection with my own language. Therefore, I would say that the foreign language experience, not only enhances a multitude of new foreign experiences, it also brings you closer to your home language. This is something people may take for granted or overlook, but what I have found through improving one's language skills you can also better your native language skill. Do you want to teach English in China? In conclusion, despite the struggles and challenges of foreign language experiences, the holistic benefits are immense in both creating a richer life experience but also enhancing your existing skills and perspectives. Speak with an ITTT advisor today to put together your personal plan for teaching English abroad. Send us an email or call us tollfree at 1-800-490-0531 to speak with an ITTT advisor today.


Hello everyone, welcome to the module on organic reactions. In this module, we shall look at what are called as elimination reactions but before we get going with elimination reactions, let us just recap our memories on what we discussed under substitution reactions. So in the last class, we had looked at what are called as organic reactions or organic transformations and we had briefly looked at the importance of organic transformations and we had said that the many of the things we come across in a day to day life are molecular in origin and these in turn are made up of organic molecules and in order to achieve a desired function which could be a molecular motor, which could be a specific drug or any of the kinds of an application, it is very important to make that molecule in high purity, both chemical as well as stereochemical. So in that perspective, we had said that organic transformations are very useful and they tell us a lot about reactivity and selectivity of organic compounds. And then we had classified different reactions as addition reactions, elimination reactions and substitution reactions and further we had gone on to look at what are called as electrophilic aromatic substitution reactions where we said that species which are electron deficient such as Br+, Cl+, or other electrophiles can attack on aromatic system like benzene or naphthalene to give a substituted products which are actually steps in the multi-step organic synthesis and similarly we had said, we had looked at what are called as nucleophilic aromatic substitution. Here in place of an electrophile, now the nucleophile attacks on to the benzene, on to the aromatic core, it could be a benzene or any other aromatic system but the distinction being the attack takes place on the position where the leaving group is there. For example bromide or iodide or fluoride. So and that would lead to a substitution from a leaving group to a incoming nucleophile that is what we had said in the case of nucleophilic aromatic substitution reactions. And we had gone on to look at substitution in aliphatic systems as well and here we had classified two different mechanisms. One is called as an SN1 reaction, another is called as an SN2 reaction and we had looked at the mechanism as well as the rate dependence on the both the base or the nucleophile as well as the substrate. And what we had seen is that these nucleophilic substitution reactions do depend heavily on the nature of the solvent as well as the nature of the base or the nucleophile which is used. So we had not delve into that but those are again important parameters to keep in mind when a nucleophilic substitution is being carried out. So having said these things about nucleophilic substitution reactions, now what we shall do is we shall continue the same discussion but we shall now go into what are called as elimination reactions. That is reactions in which there is a loss of a leaving group in a reaction. So let us go ahead and look at elimination reactions. I hope this reaction brings back your memories from the last lecture where you had seen the same tertiary butyl bromide being converted into the corresponding tertiary butynol in presence of water. But the only difference is we had not written the other product which is shown here, the alkene product, right. This is a possibility but we had not discussed about this possibility in the last class. If you now do the same reaction, if you do this reaction, the major product would be the tertiary butyl alcohol, right and that is what we called it as a substituted product or a product obtained by substitution of the bromide for the OH group or the nucleophile in this case. However if you do the same reaction but under slightly different conditions that is instead of using water, if you use sodium methoxide, again there are two possibilities are there that is the tertiary butynol and the alkene. But in this case what one observes is that now you see that the alkene is the major product and this is what people would call it as the elimination product and the alcohol is the substitution product. So I hope you see the subtle difference in going from a substitution reaction to an elimination reaction, they look similar but there is a subtle difference between them. And we shall try and look at why does this happen in a bit more detail but typically what happens is instead of the sodium methoxide going and replacing the BR, it actually knocks out one of the hydrogens and leads to the formation of the alkene and I shall just show you how that happens. So if you take any of these hydrogens, any of the three hydrogens which are present here on any of the three CSTRs, the sodium methoxide can go and attack on this and then the double bond shifts here and then the BR leaves. So that would lead to the formation of the alkene. And these are what are called as elimination product, this is what is called as an elimination product and this is what is called as substitution product, this alcohol. So I hope you can see that on the same substrate by just tweaking around with the nucleophile or which can also act as a base sometime, you can get either a substitution product or you can get an elimination product and both of these depend heavily on the conditions one employs. So having said this, let us look at what is a general living reaction or elimination reaction. So in this reaction typically what happens is you have a reactant or a substrate which is shown here like this where these could be R and you have a base which comes and abstracts this proton and this bond moves to the between the two carbon atoms and you have a now a leaving group which goes away and that would lead to the formation of this kind of a product. So R1, R2, R3, R4 and minus leaving group. So typically the elimination reactions lead to the formation of the double bonds whereas the substitution reactions you have a change of one group to the other that is going BR goes to the OH. So I hope this gives you a general idea of an elimination reaction where typically what happens is you have if you call this as the alpha carbon, the carbon on which the leaving group is attached then you have the beta carbon, a hydrogen on the beta carbon is now abstracted by a base and that leads to the shift of the bond between the beta carbon and the hydrogen to the between the two alpha between the alpha and the beta carbon and then the leaving group could leave to give rise to a double bond or an alkene. So having looked at a general elimination reaction let us go ahead and look at some of the mechanisms by which elimination reactions take place. So here I shown an example of what is called as an even elimination. This is again very similar to the nomenclature which was used for the substitution reaction. Here E stands for the elimination. One is suggest that it is a unimolecular in mechanism and in this particular substrate a cyclohexane derivative gets converted into its corresponding cyclohexane. So now let us go ahead and look at the mechanism of this reaction. So if you take the cyclohexane you have a CH3 and the BR and another CH3. So this would in the first step it would leave giving rise to the formation of a carbocation. Now the stereochemistry is lost at that particular center and now you have another hydrogen here and in the next step what would happen is this is the slow step or what people also call it this as a rate determining step. In the next step you have the abstraction of the proton by the molecular water and this moves here giving rise to the product. And again what is important to note is that the mechanism is arrived by looking at what is called as kinetic studies or studies in which people have looked at how does the rate of the reaction vary when either the water or the concentration of the starting material let us say substrate S is varied and as a function of concentration of S one would observe a sort of almost a linear dependence whereas if you now look at the rate with respect to the water it is invariant of the concentration of the water. So these are just data points. So this would actually lead you or this would suggest you that the mechanism is involves only one of only the substrate that is a bromine which one is investigating and the reason part of the reason why the elimination takes place first is that the generated intermediate carbocation this is stability of this is what is going to dictate whether the given reaction goes by an even or an E2 mechanism. If the generated carbocation is stable then one would follow an even mechanism where the bromide or the halide or any of the leaving groups would leave first giving rise to the carbocation and then a base would pluck hydrogen from the beta carbon to give rise to the corresponding alkene which is shown here. And typically the stability of the carbocation is you have a third degree carbocation which is far more stable than 2 degree then primary and this would dictate the stability of the intermediate and ultimately whether it is going to go via even or an E2 mechanism. So now let us go ahead and look at what is called as an E2 elimination. So as you might have already guessed E2 again stands for an elimination reaction which is bimolecular in the rate limiting step. This is analogous to the SN2 reaction which we have seen where the rate determining step in the mechanism involved both the reactants. In the E2 elimination mechanism here both the reactants that is the base as well as the substrate are involved and as a result we call it as a bimolecular elimination reaction and this would become apparent as we go ahead and discuss a couple of examples. So let us start by looking at this particular example of what is called as a new menthyl chloride. So if we take the substrate and subject it to a strong base like sodium methoxide or an ethoxide what one observes is that there are two alkenes which are formed which is called as a one menthyne and two menthyne and you must be wondering why there are two products formed from the one given substrate right. So we shall look at that the origin of these two products and how that is related to the elimination reaction we are discussing. And the most interesting bit is if we now take an analogous compound that is menthyl chloride which has almost exactly the same structure except the stereochemistry on the carbon which bears the chlorine atom what one observes is that exclusively the two menthyne product is formed. So this is where the stereochemistry becomes very very important in the elimination reaction and we shall try and understand this by looking at the confirmations of the molecules. So let us begin by looking at the confirmation of the new menthyl chloride first and then we shall go into the menthyl chloride. So if one draws the confirmations of the new menthyl chloride then what one can observe is the following in the chair conformation of the cyclohexane. So here you can see that the isopropyl group is in the equatorial position and the methyl group is also in the equatorial position and the chlorine is in the axial position right. So just to make this the stereochemistry a bit more apparent I will try and highlight the relevant bonds. I hope you can see that this one and this one so if you now take a look at the isopropyl and the methyl in the starting material I hope you see that the isopropyl that is this one and the methyl and the isopropyl are actually trans with respect to each other that is they would lie on the opposite side of the cyclohexane plane. So indeed that is what we observe in this particular conformation the methyl is pointing down and is in the equatorial and this isopropyl is again in the equatorial but it is now pointing upwards. So that means these two groups are now trans with respect to each other right and now if you come to the other group that is the chlorine what one observes is that you see that the chlorine is now pointing up and the chlorine is cis with respect to the isopropyl and trans with respect to the methyl. So let us see if that is indeed correct in this conformation. So if you now compare the isopropyl which is marked with the LO and the chlorine I hope you observe that both of them are pointing upwards with respect to the plane of the cyclohexane. So this suggests that the isopropyl and the chlorine are cis or they are on the same side of the plane. So that is in accordance with what we have in the starting material that is you have the isopropyl and the chlorine on the same side of the reactant. So now once we have this what we can observe is the following. So if I now highlight these two hydrogens here right. So now the incoming base the OME can come and pluck one of this proton and this bond would move here and then the chlorine atom would leave giving rise to the product which is this the B product and let us say we call this A whereas an equally likelihood possibility is that the OME minus would go and attack this hydrogen and again this would shift this bond here and then the chlorine atom would leave right. So this would lead to the pathway A or the product A and this would give the product B. So this is the reason why one observes both product A and product B in this reaction and what is important to note is that the dihedral angle between the CH the CC and the CCl or in other words the CH bond and on which the base or the OME minus is attacking and the CCl bond which is actually leaving they are at 180 degrees or the dihedral angle between them is 180 degrees. And this is what people typically call it as a antiperiplanar arrangement. So I will repeat it again antiperiplanar arrangement and this is very important for the elimination reaction to take place and you will see in a minute how this antiperiplanar arrangement or the lack of it leads to the regiochemistry in the products. So if you now come to the next one that is the menthyl fluoride example here the two conformations which are possible are easy much easier to visualize than the case of the neo menthyl fluoride. So here what one can say is that the all the three groups that is the isopropyl fluoride or the methyl can be in the equatorial position and this would be the most stable energy conformation because you have the least amount of repulsions. However you can also go to the other conformation in which all these three groups are in the axial position by doing the ring flipping but then this would be a high energy conformation of the system. So in this case if I now take the if now the OME comes and attacks. So let us say the OME now one possibility is it attacks this hydrogen and then the hydrogen this bond would move here and then the chlorine atom would leave and this would lead to the formation of the product which is shown here that is the two menthyl right. So if you now look at the conformation on the other carbon that is on the one side of the chlorine you have a hydrogen which is a trans with respect to the chlorine or in other words antiperiplanar but if you now come to the other side you will have the hydrogen which would be here right in the equatorial position. So this is actually not in the correct orientation or it is not antiperiplanar with respect to the chloride. As a result this hydrogen would not undergo an elimination to give rise to the one mentheane or the product A which was possible in the above reaction with the new menthyl chloride. So I hope you see that the arrangement of the hydrogen or the beta hydrogen on which the attack by the base takes place that is in this case the hydrogen shown here and the chlorine atom or the leaving group should be at an dihedral angle of 180 degrees or in other words they should be antiperiplanar with respect to each other. So this would facilitate the elimination reaction however if such an arrangement is not possible then the elimination reaction by an E2 mechanism does not take place. So that is also the reason why although the confirmation which is shown on the left hand side that is this confirmation is more stable it does not undergo reaction because the orientation of the chloride that is the leaving group and the hydrogen on the beta carbon are not antiperiplanar. So a consequence of this is that the new mentheal chloride in which the most stable configuration or the most stable conformation has two hydrogens which are antiperiplanar with respect to the chloride reacts roughly about 40 times faster compared to the mentheal chloride in which the favorable conformation does not have an antiperiplanar arrangement. So in essence what we are trying to say is that in an E2 elimination the stereochemistry or the arrangement of the leaving group and the hydrogen on which the base attacks is very critical to observe the product and that dictates the ratio as well as the or the regeochemistry of the product which one observes. So with this we shall now try and compare the E1 and E2 elimination reactions and see what are the commonalities or the differences between them. So with respect to the rate law what you see is that even is a unimolecular that is it depends only on the substrate leaving group leaves first to give rise to the formation of the carbocation. So it is a unimolecular reaction whereas E2 is a bimolecular reaction where both the base as well as the substrate take place in the rate determining step of the reaction and coming to the nature of the halide what one observes is that the even is faster or it is much more facile when the halide is a tertiary or secondary because the carbocation generated is consequently far more stable whereas no such dependency is observed in the case of the E2 elimination. And in case of even the base has a very not a significant rule that is it can it will just abstract the proton after the rate determining step and as a result the base is invariably a weak base whereas in the case of an E2 elimination a strong base is used and this strong base flux the proton in the rate determining step. And lastly and most importantly even in even elimination there is no dependency on the stereochemistry of the substrate whereas in case of an E2 elimination an anti-periplanar arrangement of the leaving group is necessary to obtain the desired double bond or the elimination product okay. And these are the two most commonly observed kinds of mechanisms which the elimination reactions undergo. In addition to this there is one more kind of mechanism which is called as an even CB and we shall just briefly look at that and here what we observe is that if you take a substrate like this the cyclohexanone derivative and if you subject to a mild base and just write down the substrate once again if you subjected to mild base this is what one would observe or this is also typically written as slightly different from that is you can write them in two different form because one can convert between them by using resonance and once this is this form is there then the O minus would come down and then you would have the leaving of the OH minus and that would lead to the formation of the product here right. So this kind of a mechanism where first base abstract a proton on the beta on the beta carbon and then generates an anion carbene on here like this and this carbene on further have undergoes a reaction or further helps in the elimination of the leaving group to give rise to the product is called as an even CB. Here even CB stands for elimination unimolecular but conjugate base that is although the first reaction this is a bimolecular reaction right this could be one can think of this as a bimolecular reaction but this typically fast once you once this happens you generate the carbene on and this carbene on is the one which is going the elimination reaction that is you have the negative charge comes down and the leaving group in this case this is the OH goes away to give rise to the product and since all of this occurs in the same molecule that is once you form the conjugate base that is this is the conjugate base here in this particular reaction and once you form the conjugate base that would further undergo elimination to give rise to the product. So as a result this mechanism is typically called as a even CB that is elimination unimolecular conjugate base. So again treat rate elimination is apparent and it is unimolecular because it takes place in this conjugate base form where you do not need any other reactant and since you have a conjugate base which is which give rise to the product you add the CB to indicate that the mechanism involves a conjugate base okay and I hope you can note the difference that this even CB involves on carbene on intermediate compared to even which involved a carbocation and E2 which did not involve any charged intermediates and finally we shall look at what is another kind of elimination which typically takes place under acidic conditions and an example of that is shown here and that leads us to what is called as Z-Safs rule. So if one takes this particular molecule which is shown here the alcohol which is shown on the left hand side of the arrow and if you subject it to a slightly acidic conditions and heat then what typically happens is the following that you would have the OH getting protonated and then this would first leave to give rise to a carbocation right. So now this carbocation can undergo loss of proton that is elimination to give rise to both these products which are shown here that is A and B. So let us say if I call this alpha and if I call this beta there is also another proton here or I can look at these protons any of these protons if the if we have the loss of the beta protons then we would get product A if this is lost then that would lead us to the product A whereas I will just redraw this again whereas if any of these protons are lost it would lead us to the product B right. So obviously there will be a base or a solvent which would pluck away this protons right and that would lead to the formation of the product elimination product which one observes. So now the interesting bit is you have both the products A and B which are possible however the product which is observed in majority is A, A is the major product and B is invariably the minor product and this is what is also termed as a Z-zap rule or in other words the elimination occurs such that the hydrogen is removed from the beta carbon with the least number of hydrogens. So that is what is being what is being shown here that is there are 2 beta carbons like for example we had shown one beta carbon is this another beta carbon is this I will just mark it with a different color. So one beta carbon is this another beta carbon is this. So you can have loss of proton from both of these carbon atoms but what the Z-zaps rule tells us is that the loss will take place from the carbon which has the least number of hydrogen atoms that is in this case the this particular the carbon and that leads to the product A which is a major product or a simpler way of looking at it is the in an elimination reaction the product which is formed is the more substituted alkene. So this is because of the stability of the internal versus the terminal alkene which is being formed okay. So with this we shall stop our discussion on the elimination reactions and in the next lecture we shall look at what are called as addition reactions and oxidation and reduction reactions thank you.


Recap on Priyanka Chopra Jonas' week in New York. Home goal, Priyanka Chopra Jonas, as a UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador, spoke on sustainable development goals. Priyanka delivered a powerful speech about how all is not well in our world. The actor took to her social media to share glimpses of the day and captioned it, walking through the gates of the United Nations this morning, to speak at the UNGA for the second time. Today was all about action, ambition and hope. It was about what we must do together to make the sustainable development a reality. And we do not have a movement to lose. Priyanka was seated in a panel discussion for the UNICEF Initiative Early Moments Matter. Right after catching the local subway in New York, Priyanka spoke at the nonprofit organization, the Global Funds Conference. She encouraged investments to increase funds by 18 billion US dollars. The funds are to protect and save 20 million more lives. From 450 million more diseases. The global superstar enjoyed her time in New York by visiting her restaurant, Sona. She also marked her first trip to the Big Apple with her daughter, Malti. And lastly, Priyanka had a fun night in the city to tie her week in New York together.


Alright you guys, I am back with part, girl is it part four? Part four, A Weepin' Angels, a quick recap for part three. We just found out that Michael actually is a detective based out of Dallas, Texas, and girl we don't know if it's Dallas. It's based out of Texas and he's now in Chicago. He's been assigned to the Chicago area because they have had girls that have been coming up missing. Now they have another girl that has came up missing and the flower sisters know her and so you guys we're gonna cut to a couple of days after Michael has revealed to Willow that he's actually a detective. Now Willow sits on this information. She's not gonna say anything because she kind of likes Michael and she feels like it was on Michael wouldn't care if she would tell her family that he's a detective. He probably would prefer if she didn't, right? So y'all, we're gonna take this story now. Like I said I know how it's gonna end girl but I don't know the journey to get to the end. So Willow like I said decided to send this information but she's also thinking about the information that Mrs. Goldstein revealed to her about her seeing romance, love and death and so she figured that the death is she has a feeling that death is getting closer because like I said she they knew her entire family knew the young girl that was missing 19-year-old girl in the neighborhood. So a couple of days later the family is having dinner and all of a sudden the father tells why not the mother. He's like I need to go ahead and go back to the shop. There was a couple of things that I forgot to put away. Now why Ned doesn't say anything but she gives him a little suspicious look like. What do you mean? And so he's like remember we got an extra order of I don't know an extra order of sausage that came in. Yeah my lips are looking a kind of way. Let me put up some lipstick on girl. So anyway Anthony was basically saying that yeah I got a couple of things that came in late yesterday and I want to make sure that everything is put up in time. So Tony makes his way back to the shop but instead of going to the shop he veers love and goes somewhere else. He's in this dingy little neighborhood that's probably about three or four blocks away. He's doing it on foot child and so he knocks on the door. The person's opened up the door. This is a young man. He stands about five nine. He is a red bond. This is Tony. Hey BJ man. I called you earlier you didn't answer.  He just goes ahead and sit down. He's like so did you do what I asked you to do? And BJ looks at him again with a sly smile on his face. He's like yeah I took care of it.  And so and so BJ is like yeah I took care of it Tony you have nothing to worry about. So Willa wakes up at her normal time and she turns over and she sees that. Violet has already gotten up. Isn't it Violet y'all? The second oldest child. Yes Violet has already gotten up and gone to school but really she's going to go hang out with Gerald. Gerald does not have a job at all child. She doesn't even know how Gerald is managing this little one-bit room studio shack but word on the street is that he's in the streets if you know what I mean. So anyway y'all um Willa kind of rolls her eyes. She gets up she makes her way into the living room and she sees her mom there and she's like well hey you want to make sure that the girls are up and ready. Willa goes in and she opens up the bedroom door and she sees that the girls are already gone. The twins are gone and so she's like mama the twins are already gone. And why that was like that's not possible because I told him to get ready and they're supposed to come in here and have breakfast. So Willa goes back into and she looks around she starts calling the name their names you know Jasmine Lilly no one's answering. Y'all her heart is kind of racing and so that's when she looks around that's when she looks around and she hears some laughter. She opens up the door and she sees the twins walking up the stairs and she's like Violet pushes Willa the way. She's like twins where did she go? And they look kind of like they've been shocked and behind the twins is that man BJ. And so Violet's like twins hurry up and go inside you know I'll talk to y'all in a minute. And so um why not turn around she looks at Willa. She's like Willa you know go ahead and make sure that they have breakfast and I'll be in there in a minute. Willa's concerned she's like is everything okay mama. She's like yeah yeah Willa I'll be in there in a minute. So Willa looks at her mama and she looks down at the man BJ BJ BJ's fine BJ's fine like I say he's five eight he's fair skinned he got curly hair um he's dressed really nice even though he lives in that little in a rougher part of town he still puts some stuff together fairly nice and so Willa's like okay I don't know how my mama knows these people this person but whatever. So she goes in and gets the kids ready with the twins ready and this is why she turns around. We left off with the mysterious man BJ having gotten the twins early in the morning to get something from uh an ice cream shop that just so happens to be open early in the morning girl. I don't know that's not really realistic but um he saw them out there and hey free ice cream they're 12 years old okay. So why not now it's talking to the mysterious man. She told Willa to go back up with the twins. Willa's a little concerned because she has no idea who this person is right this is why Ned talking to BJ.  Hey BJ um so when did you get into town BJ is smiling at her again with this slide smile and he's like well hey Wynette nice to see you. Oh I got into town a couple of days ago so why not was Wynette was a little confused by that. She's like a couple of days ago Tony didn't tell me anything about this that's when BJ says well yeah Wynette I'm pretty sure there's a couple of things that Tony hasn't told you about. So Wynette was like hmm girl dig sorry. So she's like okay so how long do you plan to stay in town and so that's when BJ responds she's like well I don't know you know I may make this my second home home away from home. Sorry you guys so Wynette was like she looks at him and she studies him she's like well it was nice to see you BJ but I gotta run up and make sure that the girls are fine okay. So when Wynette goes back up you know she leaves BJ to look at her walk up the stairs um and he goes on about his day y'all. So Wynette goes up there and she's like twins and the twins turn around in unison looking at her. She's like look I'll explain to you guys later on but if you ever come across that man you are not to go with him. Do you understand and they shook their head in unison. That's when Willow came around the corner from the kitchen she's like mama is everything okay and Wynette's like yeah baby everything's okay just what's your father and so Wynette said you know he's at the shop she called that's right okay I'm gonna go down there you watch the girls I'll be back.  Well girl it's getting juicy hold on let me let me get some um motivation. Tony knows that she knows that B.J. is in town so she said so this is Wynette to Tony she's like so Anthony child when she goes like Anthony we know it's serious she's so Anthony why didn't you tell me that B.J. was in town and so he said look Wynette I was gonna get around to telling you but you know I've been so busy here at the shop that I just haven't she said but you know that's serious you know I came down this morning and apparently he had taken the girls to get some ice cream and that's when Tony looked at her he's like he did what she's like yeah he had taken the girls to get some ice cream and we didn't know where they were at but you know that's nice to him and so he was just you know being nice giving them some ice cream but I don't really want him around the kids unless we're there you know that's you know together as a family unless we're all there and he looks there he said that's okay Wynette you know you don't have to worry about it I'll handle it right so uh he goes on about his day and so Willow goes ahead and goes to the store you know midday because it's busy it's busy on a Saturday and in comes Michael fine detective Michael he's rushing in at the same time you guys there is a radio playing in the shop and so Willow is there and all of a sudden they hear the newscaster on the radio say breaking news breaking news um this is exclusive we just understand that the body of the first young woman that went missing has been found um a tune in girl i'm making this up tune in later on tonight for more information on channel six news or whatever so Willow is like daddy did you hear that and Anthony looks there he's like yeah he's like you know it willow can you handle this for a minute you know can you i hate to leave you here by yourself but i promise baby i'll be right back and so she's she shakes her head she's like yeah daddy it's okay i know this is upsetting for all of us right the daddy leaves y'all he leaves willow there the daddy goes you know back towards the house like he's walking towards the house but instead he turns towards the apartment where bj lives he knocks on the door and bj answers the door he's like hey what's going on tony and he pushes him to the side he said man look if you ever be around my family again it's gonna be a problem bj's like what are you talking about he's like yeah why net came into the shop this morning and told me that you took the twins down to get some ice cream and so he's like well yeah i think it's about time that your kids meet their older brother y'all all right y'all that's part four of weeping angels okay so we know the about a body has been found the mysterious man bj it's actually tony's tony son y'all so yeah y'all that's it for part four