So I'm Emmanuel Nuneau, I'm the director of IHES and France Institute de Hauts-Études scientifiques and Before introducing our speaker, I would like to thank AXA for welcoming us tonight And I'm really a note that CEO Mark Pearson was able to join us in person and thanks a lot So I would also like to warmly thank the American friends of IHES and For organizing this event tonight special thanks to Raphael and For those of you who are attending an IHES even for the first time allow me to say a few words about our institutions So IHES is a research institute dedicated mainly to mathematics and theory of physics and from the beginning The institute has been devoted to the international community of scholars with a small permanent faculty of outstanding talent, so of One figure gives a good idea of IHES position in the academic landscape out of 10 mathematicians recruited as permanent professors Seven have been awarded the few's medal So each year we welcome an average of 200 visitors From all around the world for research visits They come to the institution for the unique Atmosphere of scientific emulation, curiosity, vision, discussion and freedom of research So genius belonging to no nation and IHES Forms together with all the institutes of basic research in mathematics and theory of physics a worldwide chain of Knowledge dedicated to the development of human understanding at its most complex IHES has very strong links with the US in fact the founding director Leon Mocchan modelled the institute after the Institute for Advanced Study and Develops strong scientific connection with its academic community For example, Oppenheimer was a member of the scientific institute of IHES at the beginning for several years and for over 50 years IHES has remained close to its American friends and enjoyed many exchange of scientists All extremely fruitful fruitful for the development of scientific research in France and in the United States Today American remains from far the number one nationality host at IHES for research visits now Allow me to introduce a great American scientist Dr. Robert Frey and so after 25 years and As an applied mathematicians in industry Maybe after 15 years spent in quantitative finance as managing director and some well-known H1 Yeah, you decide to retire in 204 and embarking on an academic career at Stony Brook So his work focused on risk management modeling the process of Managing complex and dynamic portfolios and tonight he will present his analysis of 175 years of market go down and Then maybe Michael Douglas chairman of friends of IHES and a great physicist who also works in finance will moderate some questions and answer a small debate before we invite you to join us for refreshment of the reception. I would be happy to meet you and tell you more about IHES and Mike and Robert Again, my warmest thanks for joining us tonight Thank you Well, you know, I want to thank IHES for for inviting me and saying some you know who and for widely exaggerating my capabilities, but I appreciate it I also want to thank AXA for hosting the event tonight What I want to talk about is Actually, I originally said 175 years, but I actually it ended up being 180 years of market drawdowns and You know, I think the process of drawdowns I think there's really several points. I want to make tonight one is that You know When we look at financial markets, we have a tendency to be very myopic in our focus We you know, we calibrate our models over, you know short periods of time We estimate risk based on you know, what's happened over the last five or ten years and we think that's a long-term You know view of things but in fact, you know Financial markets evolve and change over time scales that are probably won't much longer than a human lifetime So you have to look over as long a period as possible to really gain insight now again The argument often is is that well, that's you know, that's sort of irrelevant that you know We're dealing with if you're looking at the you know the 1800s. You didn't have a central bank Really, you didn't really have a central bank. You had the that was pre in the early, you know When I start here, it's really pre industrial revolution Now we're looking at the modern age. It's a you know, we have high-frequency trading. We have central bank We have all sorts of interventions in the market But I'm going to show here that at least in one important measure the market hasn't changed much in those 180 years And it's a measure that's I think very relevant from or from a risk-point of view It's it's looking at you know a maximum drawdown And so just I don't know just a quick bio I worked as a where I started as a scientist in the defense industry I worked as a systems engineer and a program manager Got my PhD in applied mathematics at Stony Brook University and I was recruited into Morgan Stanley's Automated their past trading group in the mid 80s When that was that looked like it was a little shaky I started my own firm in 1989 and I was recruited that that was acquired by Kepler By renaissance that that firm Kepler was acquired by renaissance in 1992 because I had started Kepler and as I was a partner with Jim Simons and and and then Jim Suggested that we merged the firms in 1992 was one of the best things I ever did I was a manager directed with renaissance I developed the Nova and ecometric funds which were basically Nova was essentially a stat off on the necrometrics was a longer-term analysis And then you know I retired from from from that from renaissance in 2004 It was the advisory board chair of the University of Chicago's program on financial financial mathematics and I'm founder and and well founder and originally director but now now co-director because We just hired Raphael today that he's gonna be my boss now So I'm very happy about that because I can get a little rest and he can take over and and I think bring the Department to new heights. I'm really fortunate. We were very fortunate to have him And I also I also run a fund of hedge funds FQS capital investment, which is really an outgrowth of my family office and as a lot of these things go I was managing money and other people asked me to manage money for them and suddenly we had a company Well, I'm talking a little bit sort of myopia and you know too often in finance and in life in general day-to-day details Overwhelmed overwhelm us narrowing our focus and what I what I have here is a sort of a little little graph And what this was from a blog post I had put up and what I what it was was it was a regime It was a looking at a regime shifting model of the S&P 500 and I chose the period 1985 to a 2000 this was at the time 2013 because that was sort of the extent of my of my career at the time You know, I started in about the mid-80s and went to you know This was done in 2013 and what you can see is leading up to the 2008 crash You can see that there was a period of of of unusually low volatility Now what happens, you know during periods such as this obviously people think things are you know Very steady and calm. We also are dealing with you know, perhaps Environment where returns tend to be sort of moderate and that sort of thing But since things are so steady and calm and all the risks alone, what do we do? We leverage up like crazy in order to get higher levels of return. So just as you know, Ivan minsky predicted, you know, it's a sort of standard minsky and sort of Condition what you know the market becomes so levered and so You know unstable that it doesn't that any little thing then becomes it becomes a disaster and the whole market collapses And you see in 2008, you know, we saw this you see these more increases in volatility But you know now the trouble is is that for many people their whole career existed in that little valley that we that we see You know sort of you sort of see I wish I had a laser point Is there a laser pointer? So you see here That's almost a seven or eight year period.   We tend to look at these very short time periods We tend not to be we tend to be inadequate historians. We get too hung up with the mathematics and and we should be better historians And you know, that's sort of the less common you don't design a house based on the weather report And and that's what a many people do with their portfolios They they look at them they they look at tomorrow's weather forecast and build the house based on what they're going to see And that's not and that that's not a very sound way to do anything in life Okay, so let's talk about market drawdowns You know an investment drawdown is the drawdown behavior of a particular investment is an important element in In its behavior What we're going to focus on is a single market the S&P 500 total return and total return meaning any any dividends Reinvested in the index and we're going to look at the period from 1835 to 2015 and the source for this is global financial data and they have a sort of a pseudo S&P 500 for early periods. Okay, so, you know, there's some important questions, you know How can drawdowns be modeled and analyzed? You know, how do we sort of look at these drawdowns? You know, how stable is this aspect of performance over time? And then really what insights can we develop examining the drawdowns in an important market over an extended period of time? And those are really the three issues I want to I want to address here and you know what I've tried to do I know we have a sort of a mixed audience So I tried to be I tried not to avoid technical issues But I really wanted to focus on mainly the insights that you can gain from from looking at this looking at the world So let's talk about cumulative log returns. So, you know, we're going to you know if I look at the The log of the of the ratio of wealth from one period to the next, right? That's that's going to be that's my log return So my cumulative log return is this is the cumulative sum going out over time. So that's That's my basic measure. I'm going to look at the cumulative log returns. Now I want to then define my drawdown state now what a drawdown state is what I'm simply going to do is I'm going to just as I have a cumulative return I'm going to have a running maximum. So at any point in time as I go along the cumulative returns I'm going to I'm going to record the the maximum value and Obviously if the if I go through a losing period that maximum value doesn't change it just flies out, right? And so what I do is I I get it. I Get that maximum value now the difference between that running maximum and the current cumulative return is the drawdown That's fairly simple So now what I have is I have okay So now what I can do is what I have is I have these I have these these separate epochs these separate periods and What what I have is I can I can when I look at the this drawdown number because I'm I Don't care when I'm doing better than then then as I continue to hit new highs I I don't care about that. That's that's just going to be zero is from the drawdown perspective So in a drawdown state the way of sort of defined it I'm going to I'm going to I'm going to have either a period where I'm in this drawdown state So I'm going to have a continuous period of drawdown of observations that are non that are non zero and that's going to be interspersed with periods where all of the observations are going to be zero which represent periods where the market is rising, right? So That's I'm going to use that fact at partition that my drawdown the drawdown states across time and into partitions And then and then the drawdown process I'm going to study is I'm going to simply take each each subpartition and I'm going to look at the maximum drawdown that occurs in each Partition and I'm going to look at the duration of time over which that drawdown occurred And so I have a sequence of observations now which characterized that what I call the drawdown process for the For the particular investment, right? So it's fairly simple idea. So this is The partition is arbitrary. No, it's not arbitrary. It's based on the actual behavior So it yeah, so if it's a contiguous If they're the partition is contiguous segments where you're either in a drawdown state or not in a drawdown state So it's the partitions arise naturally from the data that I'm So let's look at the full data set from 1835 to 2015 and that's sort of a so what we have here is the log log index and this is the S&P total return index from global financial data and you can see in here, you know, these little red periods those are drawdowns And you can see for example, you know the great depression, right? That's a that's kind of a really big one But you know in general this You know as an investment this looks pretty good over, you know, if you're really looking very long-term There's a steady increase over time and you know, it looks wonderful and you know, it's easy to forget that those little Dips where where that are filled in with red where you're in drawdown Sometimes are, you know, five six years of pain and suffering And in the case of the great depression much much longer, so But you know, this this is the process now if I what I do now is I simply look at those drawdown processes And this is this is what I end up with when I when I look at that and so again, this is again 180 years of drawdowns now What's this kind of something surprising here? I mean if what when I look at this, you know I see a fairly steady increase over time, but when I actually pull out and look at the drawdowns The drawdowns are everywhere. I mean there and they're all different sizes There's a little tiny drawdowns and little big drawdowns and in fact, you know, what we'll see is that you know What's interesting about this process and what's maybe relevant from the point of view of an investor is that you're Usually in a drawdown state even even in a very good and positive investment, you know Now this is also something this is a what I did is I looked at the drawdown period which I identified as how so That's the length of the period versus the the size of the period Okay, and I did I actually just I just did a linear regression and you know, this these are these are highly significant and it basically says that the length of the period is proportional to the To the size of the drawdown and I did I just just for the sake of sensitivity testing What I did is I I looked at all of the data, but obviously I have a couple of high leverage points out there So if I look at if I exclude the top six outliers, I get I get the dashed line Which is really pretty much pretty close So you can you know There's a pretty pretty much at least from we can see here a pretty linear Relationship between the length of the drawdown period and the size of the maximum drawdown and again expressed as a lot Also, I should mention that these this was weighted least squares because it's also pretty obvious that the the variability is proportional to the size of the drawdown period So what I did is the weight is I the weight is basically was one over the length of the period so I'm assuming that the the variability of the drawdown is is Proportional to the length of the period Not a reasonable not an unreasonable thing. So I just so so what we get here and now again, you know I have a much fuller analysis here where I do Develop analysis of the joint distribution of these two things But what I'm going to do is I'm going to I'm just going to concentrate for now on the on the drawdowns themselves rather than the length that how deep that the max the size of the maximum drawdowns and not talk a lot about their lengths Although there's some interesting work there because I'm trying to get I'm trying to make this as accessible as possible now One of the things that's that's interesting is that you know, you have this you have the sort of the s&p And again stepping back and looking at the cumulative plot of the s&p we see You know kind of a fairly steady upward slope, you know Yeah, sure there are drawdowns in there, but you know on the scale on the scale of The increases over this period, you know First of all that the the the slope is reasonably constant and the drawdowns again Don't you know again with the perspective of 200 year of almost 200 years don't seem very large But if you look at things in the small right, what happens is that's you know, you say, okay You know, what if I pick a random point in time here? What's the probability of a random month being in a drawdown state now again? You get what does this mean?  What's the likelihood that at any random time you're looking back at a high high water mark that you're under You're on from your point of view. You're underwater. It turns out. That's true 75 percent of the time So 70 I think that surprises most people most people if you asked You know about the market you would say well, how often am I you know? okay, how often am I sort of in a state of regret and The answer is even with something fairly well fairly attractive like the stock market and again This is there's a certainly survivor bias here because it's the US stock market and it's you know, obviously this is a implicit survivor bias You know, even in the US stock market, which is probably one of the most successful You you're you're in this drawdown state the state of regret 75 percent of the time Then I just chose sort of an odd not entirely over here, but a 20 20 percent throwdown again It's a lot of 20 percent 20 percent throwdown as being a Like an excessive a large throwdown and of that 75 percent of the 75 percent about 60 percent of the time You're in you're in an extreme for them something over that 20 percent Right, so so what did what did what that implies is that you're somewhere around? 60 I say you know you're you know about 40 40 percent of the time you're in 45 percent of that you're in a really bad situation You're you're in a state of significant throwdown now again I think that this this is kind of an underappreciated fact I think when people look at investor behavior and look at the psychology of investing in markets We tend we tend not to focus on the fact that for the app for a typical investor Even one, you know who has you know as long as their their horizon is over more than a few years Most of the time they're going to be underwater even though in the long run They do tend to make money and this is kind of a I think something that's kind of interesting You know and I don't think it's something and I think it's sort of one motivation for focusing on drawdown as As a very important measure because I think it drives a lot of what people do in markets You know because that insight of that's that you know because where does regret to come from because you know We naturally anchor our viewpoint to our last highest You know what high watermark and what we're saying is most of the time when we're in we're investing in anything risky We're in a state of regret and that puts tremendous stress on an investor The second thing is is that from just from a simple mathematical view We know that you know when you do get a drawdown and your capital base shrinks You have to you know It's just a fact of life that you have to do much better when you know if you if you've lost 50% You have to make 100% to get out of that right that's right the losses and gates aren't symmetrical So being in a drawdown state also creates that stress of having you know your capital base is shrunk And the amount of performance you need to get back to even now is is much higher So you know this this whole notion of drawdowns I think is we tend to underestimate the stress on on on investors and we tend when we think about Investor behavior we don't we you know we tend not to talk enough about drawdowns. I would say So let's just look at that. So this is sort of the standard kind of plot and it's a log log plot and what I have is the the survival function along the abscissa and the the x-axis is the max drawdowns and You know here, you know this is where you would sort of you know, you know Typically if you have a power over a tail you'd see you see sort of a straight line and I have sort of this gradual curve and you know again based on looking at other other financial indices and another another And doing looking at various looking at various subsets, you know this this thing never really settles down You get this sort of curve, but it never really settles down to zero. So You know after looking at this, you know, I was sort of trying to develop You know and also by the way out and I'll show shortly that if you had if if the if the returns were normally distributed the the the Distribution of drawdowns is exponentially distributed But what we have here is we have actually some quite fat tails So what I did is that you know, I was trying to develop a max drawdown and I and I sort of again based on fitting various Looking at the looking at these log log plots, which is the typical plot that you know Mandelbrot first introduced to show, you know tails and in these distribution I Came up with just basically a gamma exponential mixture, right? So this I Realized after I went to the trouble of solving this that this is just a variant of the Pareto distribution It's typically called a Lomax distribution The only difference is that beta is usually a scale parameter sigma that's divided into the into the variable But I just kept it in this form. So so what I'm saying is that the PDF of the of when I look at when I sort of fit this The PDF of the max drawdown and again that red and so looking at each epoch the maximum drawdown I experience in each epoch the PDF follows this Pareto this this is a Pareto type for distribution basically All right, so that's it's that's it's so what I have here is you know This is the this is how this is how it's derived, right from from from the This is a beta distribution and I'm integrating over an exponential distribution and I have this PDF and that and that the CDF So when I do that So when I so now when I'm going to look at the max drawdown distribution again over this period I get I get I get a This Pareto distribution I get an alpha of 1.8 and I get a beta of 13.7 And that's a very good fit that's an excellent fit I mean the fit is I mean I use the Kramer von Mises generally that's my preferred test, but this this is This is a very this is very close. I mean, it's it's pretty it's pretty clear You know that this is this is an excellent fit to the data and you can see here What I have is the red is the theoretical and the blue is the empirical So then I said well, let me let me just sort of look at a Gaussian simulation to see see see what I get with that So this is just now again, obviously looked at a lot of simulations, but this is just one of them I just wanted to look at one of them So there's there's the the same sort of graph showing, you know, and I see you know, I see the drawdowns I see a lot of you see a lot of the drawdowns and Notice they're a lot smaller and but I still get it doesn't look dramatically different Here's the drawdowns now notice here notice in contrast, you know The drawdowns here are much then that is widely just widely distributed They look more similar to one another right then then in the in the real market case So now when I when I sort of look at this case of again I'm going to look through the same sort of division of you know What percent of time are you in a drawdown state versus what time percentage of time are you in an extreme drawdown state? And what's interesting here is that you know for the Gaussian this Gaussian This is a typical result is that it's you're in fact slightly you're 80% of the time You're in a drawdown state and of that and of that 80% about 67% of the time you're in a sick more than 20% So again, you know even with Gaussian well-behaved Gaussian Distributions you're you know, you're you're dealing with a thing where you're in a state of regret most of the time right you're you're you're going to bed with you know Upset stomach because you know, you've lost money in the market. You're not sure what's going to happen and that sort of thing Okay, so all right now the now the but this is the real difference here is that rather than a rather than a Pareto distribution the distribution of the distribution of Of max drawdowns follows an exponential distribution and here's you have the theoretical and the and the observed right and it was actually that Doing that which led me and some theoretical arguments about you know, the sort of the native relationship between stable and distributions and Well, normal is a stable distribution normal distributions and alpha stable distributions which led me to the idea of looking at mixtures of exponentials and so You can see here that you know, we have an exponential distribution and again This is this is a very close fit obviously. This is the seat CDF's the CDF's match each other extremely closely and you know and now So what's nice about this is that we're not characterizing now on one hand you could say, you know We're looking at in some sense the tails We're not characterizing the tails of the drawdown distribution We're characterizing the entire drawdown distribution looking at the whole thing and the whole thing follows Let's say this low max distribution and again for normal these things are universally exponentially distributed Which is something much much less a try tail Now so then I said I said, well, let me fit an alpha stable fit a type 1 alpha stable distribution to the data And again, I ran many simulations there, but this is I'm going to give you a sort of a characteristic one so and You can see right away.  I have that plotted, but Look, you see that, you know, you know and part of the problem is is that the alpha states What's interesting is the this the when I fit in a single alpha stable distribution to the to the data I get too many large excursions and That's what causes a lot of the drawdowns and also sometimes ends the drawdowns. Yeah, so right so Again, when I look at the drawdowns, you can see here And also the size of the drawdowns are much much higher over this over again I had this simulated same period of time and where whereas the Great Depression hit hit about again a log drawdown of 1.8 or so You you see here you're hitting much higher distribution, you know much higher much higher levels with with alice stable So stable distribution at least not a single stable distribution doesn't Doesn't really hack it and I will tell you that, you know, I'm in the process of firming this up But you know, it's obviously that the market has some state memory and and that you know You're dealing with a mixture of such alpha stable processes that are you know So but there there is also some state memory that gets in here to change this But so we're saying this just a stable distribution doesn't do very well. However one One thing that's interesting is that you know, again, you see the same pattern 83% of the time you're in a drawdown distribution 84% you're in a drawdown distribution and 69% of that time you're in a significant drawdown and again This is everything having the same, you know, you in this case the alpha stable was fit using the same using the same data and again That's that's the fit and It turns out though that the alpha stable distribution does fit the Pareto type for distribution It gets a two parameter version and it has an alpha of 1.6 and Beta and this the beta and actually that again the normal the normal form would be the reciprocal Say a little more what you mean by stable What and I will have a stable stable distributions of distributions that when you add them together you get another stable distribution So there's a there's a class of distributions developed by Libby that That have this property now You know the kosher distributions an example of normal distributions an example, you know So when you combine these you actually puts on distribution when you combine that you get another person But there's a class of distributions where there's generally no closed form for the PDF But where and you have generally infinite variants and that's that's generally Right right, but it's changing in a consistent way across time because I don't what I break this up into pieces I get the same Changing Yes, exactly. That's I think it is that I say and I and the sing which seems to in the same thing It doesn't seems to have persistence. So I'm really what I'm really trying is a Libby stable thing You know essentially hidden Markov model with alpha stable emissions basically Well, I'm gonna I'm gonna do I'm gonna cover that bit of that's good question Right and what I tried to do is I tried to make the break breakouts sort of meaningful in this in the sense I'm really trying to sort of again think of it from a as much from a point of view of the history that I'm looking at is anything else But so so I but again what's what's clear is that if I have with the alpha stable distribution Does have these the drawdown state which does resemble this parade of distribution as is the other case, however It's also clear that it's a single distribution doesn't capture You know actual stock marble returns with any real fidelity It's natural No, I did monthly because because I wanted to get as long a period as possible and daily returns when you go back 200 years Well, you don't mean much really so yeah, yeah Right now I get temperate stable. Yeah, I didn't I have looked at that and that's not here But yeah, that you can I mean that doesn't change things that much. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, right All right, so let me look at what I want to do is I'm going to first look at the Pre-grade pre-grade depression because remember when I let me go back up here When you look at the original data, you know, you have the great depression in there So, you know everybody, you know the maximum hitting or hitting about point seven and the other one Then you have the great pressure depression that goes up to about 1.8 So let's see if we sort of take that period out and look at the period before and that's a 93 year period so that's the that's a period prior to the Great Depression and You know qualitatively, you know, it doesn't really look different that you know When once you scale it down, it doesn't really look different than you know the whole data set Again when I when I when I when I look at it from the point of view of fitting the Distribution I get again a very excellent fit. I get it. I get an alpha of 1.8 as opposed to 1.65 I guess was was was the No, it was about 1.8 for the whole thing I forget but you know it doesn't look very different. So so the point is that yes It's clear that there is that that you know single alpha stable distribution doesn't handle it It's clear that it's changing over time But it's also clear that when I look at this when I look at this pre Pre-grade depression period It's changing at time levels that are Less than than than that and and and you know, it's it's changing in the same way I mean it looks the same, right? The underlying process looks the same and again I have the same thing I have again by 78 75 78 percent of the time You're in a drawdown and about 60 percent of the time and what you might consider as a highly significant So so now so that was 93 years and again, you know Let's look at a post World War two and I wanted that sort of you know, we had the obviously World War two ended What 46 I guess so I Wanted to give you a few years for recovery. So I started 1950 to 2015 so that's 65 years That's a little bit shorter than they first did the other period and again Here's here's the most more recent period and again. This kind of looks You know sort of very similar doesn't really things are really Again now Alpha is a 2.3 And again, if you you know, I did some bootstrap estimates, you know, these these these alpha coefficients are Virtually really quite indistinguishable But you know, I now again the significance of an alpha point to being over two is There's some significance there, but yeah, I had an alpha of 2.3 and again beta the What you might think of as a scale parameter is 11. So again, it looks very similar in this period as well So when when I'm looking at these three periods, I'm so I'm looking at the whole period and I find okay. I have a certain You know certain behavior and I find So then I but I have in the middle of this this tremendous distortion perhaps caused by the the Great Depression And so, you know what I do is I said let me let me take that out And and let me look at the before and after periods Separately and see if things look at look any different and the answer is at least from the point of view a drawdown They they don't look different at all. You know, they don't they don't they haven't really changed changed at all and again Just I mean think about that. Yeah, we're talking about, you know Sort of a basic element of market stability. How much does it drop before it comes back again? Right that's a very important, you know Consideration for any investor for anybody planning investments and there's no evidence that you know It was different in 1840 that it is in 1940 that it is in 2015 not not not dramatically so Now again, you know, what's different?  Put money into the into the market because there was no central bank, right? Then we had, you know the Great Depression which probably because we had a central bank that didn't know what it was doing We got it. We got a Great Depression Then we have 2008 which is again, you know, but you know What's interesting is that if you look at all of these interventions and all of the changes in time At least this basic this aspect of the market this basic kind of an interesting Characteristic of the market hasn't really changed in 200 years Right now think about all this other stuff that's changed. We have high frequency trading We have all sorts of regulations. We have we have, you know, a central bank, which although it's not its official mission Really does consider the stock market stability as part of its mission, although it's not supposed to But there's no evidence that Any of that has any effect whatsoever in the behavior of the market, right? The draw the size of the drawdowns the distribution of the drawdowns, you know Aren't say, you know, when you look at something like the Great Depression If I exclude the Great Depression and then I say how likely is something like the Great Depression to happen? Yes, it's a rare event, but it's not a terribly rare event It's you know, it's an event that might happen every couple of lifetimes or something. It's not you know So so again, I think you know There is a there is a consistent behavior in the in these drawdowns over time I think that it's it says something about you know markets in terms of how they've driven perhaps by human nature And you know and so despite everything that's changed over the last 180 years This aspect of the market hasn't changed much at all. Okay, so let's look at some comparisons again Here's the again. Here's the PDFs of the Drought max drawdowns again. So again, so for each drawdown epic, you know, obviously I took out the pieces that weren't drawdowns So if you draw that every I took the maximum drawdown And looked at the distribution and here's the three PDFs One is for the whole period then then for the pre pre pre pre-Great Depression and post then the third post war. They're virtually the same is the here are the CDFs and again, you can see that the the post war looks a little bit better But I'm going to argue that I mean sometimes they'd argue well that isn't that some evidence that things have changed but you know, you got to remember to the The the pre-war the pre-war I had 97 years of data post-war I had 65 Frankly, my experience is the more data you have the smaller the exponent tends to grow, right? So that the the fact that the 1950 to 2015 I think is more likely due to the fact that I had a smaller period of time that the exponent was slightly higher I don't really you know and certainly from a any kind of you know, I did when I did some bootstrapping I There's really no difference here. So what we have here is a very you know We have an again a critical element of stock market behavior. That's that's constant over a very very long period of time All right, so let's let's compare the drawdowns. So again I think the key here is that the basic character of the max drawdown Is reasonably similar across time and roughly just shy of two centuries, right? There's a recent period does show a slightly lower incidence of larger drawdowns, but again I think that might be an artifact of the like say the lengths of the intervals I was comparing, you know When I look at the probability of a larger max drawdown So I'm looking at the tail of the distribution when I look at these three periods I'm looking at a 20% or 40% and 80% and I mean, but this is a log drawdown So it goes out to it goes out. So well one point one log drawdown at 1.6 You know the probabilities don't dramatically change, you know, I mean I I mean I see you know You know, you're going to see significant drawdowns in all cases and and again I again obviously when you when you look at those those extreme events that those are very noisy I don't you know None of this stuff suggests to me that we're dealing with a process that has changed in any fundamental way And again, so I think that that kind of does does surprise me because I did expect to see some effect of the interventions from You know from from government and everything else, and I just don't see it I mean say I mean the market the market in 1890 and the market in 2015 don't look at all different. I mean it just doesn't look just doesn't look all right So so what are my conclusions? I want to talk about this that you know market as a driver of regret may play a greater role than we realize You know, I don't think we think in terms of we think in terms of drawdowns and we understand how oh, yes We're going to control max drawdown I don't think we think about the fact that most of the time an investor is facing a Drawdown when when they're when they're investing and that scares the hell out of it, right? Right, so you have that psychological factor me is something that you should be considering right and whether you're doing theoretical work or Practically you're in the practice of advising an investor, right? The character of the market over the past 180 years Again doesn't seem to have changed greatly and again you can look at any number of other related things I think I like I like drawdown because it was such a Kind of to me was an important measure and and by the way it was being driven by some research I was interested in frankly managing my own investments Yes, sir True now that I control for them. No, but I mean I think the the Those might be explanatory variables that may explain some of that stuff But it's pretty clear that to the extent that they affected the behavior of the market It didn't change from one period to the next. Yeah, so at this point I'm not trying to diagnose anything or trying to go any deeper Faturi what one is that I do have much more analysis, but I wasn't sure at the level of the audience I know there's people at all different levels and I wanted to Talk about something everybody could sort of appreciate so but but the answer here is that yeah sure I'm sure you know obviously flows in and out of the market I'm gonna have a dramatic effect on on the volatility and what happens to the market But there's no evidence that it's different now Is the size of the distribution of financial Again Okay, well, let's let's I mean let's examine but you know if you know we just We just saw that you know if I look at the recent period and I look at sort of the map that maximum throw down in those periods, right? I Don't I don't see any difference now today So some of what you're saying is that in some important way things have not changed. That's that's that's what I'm saying I mean from from the point of view of someone you say, you know, should the risk premium be different But I don't why why should it be different No, no, I mean that's but that was true in the past as well.  It's not Changed Right Right, it's the same and also you talk about sort of things that financial markets being, you know The world, you know, one of the reasons the Great Depression was the Great Depression was because we had become integrated Globally, you know trade wise right now that we didn't get back to the same level of global integration in terms of cross cross Border trading until I think I think it was like the mid of late 50s after the Great Depression.  I'm saying that No, it hasn't increased. It's it's maybe it may be in a high state or a low state But it's been in those states before that's that's what I'm saying, okay Yes So if you were to take Yes And even if you look at say Well, that I haven't that I know I have access to that we do have tagged that I didn't look at many But I assume I wouldn't be surprised I wouldn't be surprised to find You know Absolutely This and in fact if you look at my last point there is any study such as this suffers from survivor bias That's my last point and and the fact that we are likely to have probably underestimated our alphas because we don't have a lot of data here, frankly, so Yes, I mean, yeah, I mean, that's I mean, I fully admit that I mean this is I'm trying to describe certain thing and observe certain things But yeah, there's some real limitations here And I think but I think it's important. It's okay to use this stuff as long as you understand those Extremely brisk trading between the beginning of the war and 44 The answer is I did if you look at and I actually if you look at the Again, this isn't here But if and I we can talk about this later if you look at these stocks because one one advantage of global financial data Is that I can get this data if you look at the losers in World War two Yes, they look a lot worse than the winners of World War two So I've looked I've done the same thing for example with the with the English stock market And even though England was subject to great stress during the war, you know at bombings in London stuff like that You did not you you see pretty much the same pattern as you do in the United States and and you know So so you don't really see that doesn't change but if you do look at someplace like you know say pre-World War two Germany languages, you know the fall of the regime You know, you you know, obviously you had immense hyperinflation and that sort of thing and If you look at Japan post-World War two, you see the same thing and what you see is just Bigger drawdowns. I mean, yeah, but they're I mean, you know, you see that I mean, yes, but there is a survivor bias here in the sense that you know There's no lost war in you that that the United States has experienced during this period Not really, you know, and and if you had one, you would see a much bigger You know Yeah Listen these guys think that you should invest in stock market based on my oh, yeah Well, that wasn't my Music, but I'm asking more if people have tried to construct experiments where people form an artificial market For what I've seen in it.  So obviously people I think, you know, if you ask the guy well, you know What would a person feel in a drawdown state they'd feel regret But no in terms of actually looking at the distribution process that that process that drawdown process and saying how it's actually going to influence Investor no, I haven't Well, actually my argument there is that somebody should that's that's not my area of interest But somebody should really look at that because I think that you know market drawdowns first of all are more pervasive than we think and That I mean for most investors it's going to it's going to present a tremendous stressor on an investor You know, and I don't think people appreciate that, you know when you look at It's just I'm saying just let me make just go down and make a few more points, you know I just want to say really realistic statistical model awaits in terms of understanding financial markets You know, we're unable to adequately model returns to reproduce With this, you know, so again, like I said, you know, if I put in an alpha stable now again as the seed said Yeah, you put in a you put in a mixture of alpha stables You do get something that looks a lot a lot more and and but again There seems to be some memory in there So something like a hit mark or a process or some some state memory that comes in that that, you know It's important, you know, but yeah, but I right now I don't I don't know I haven't done it yet. I'm trying to Somebody else wants to do it. They're welcome to do it But one thing I think it's really important to say it would be a mistake to view the Great Depression as an outline Because if one more person tells me that the Great Depression can't happen again, I'm gonna kill I'm gonna have to kill him Well, yeah, but the point is that you know even even without the observation of the Great Depression Such a such a sought thing is not even an outlier. I mean we got to stop, you know, we have to you know Look at the real reality here So yeah, you know when somebody says, oh, you know, because we've learned so much I Again, you know when I was doing this I did I wasn't I wasn't at this stage looking at any Cross-correlation and that sort of thing what I what I have thought about doing is looking at a Regime switching model where again you have these alpha stable emissions and the probability distribution You're in any one emission state is controlled by some other exogenous variables like Afflation and so on like that. So that would give you some that would give some of the effect to look that and as a matter of fact The the the the first dissertation we produced that are stony work out of the QF program was just on that topic on modeling the behavior of hedge funds where we had basically a Hierarchy of model we had we had a sort of a bunch of sub models and which which model this strategy sort of Behave like was controlled by certain macro macro variables Well, that is a regime shift Another is that that is I'm not saying I don't know what controls the regime shift Is it doesn't is it controlled by some exogenous collection of variables and some model that would allow you to you know Generate that or is it something like a hidden Markov model? I don't know what the rich I don't know what the meta model is that controls regime shows But I think it's kind of obvious that there is regime shifts here and and they probably are alpha stable or something This is the most affordable finance people tend to Trust people on the contrary cross section of the We would look at the population and when I was looking at that, you know, I was saying if you're trying to go back very long To make a statistics, right? But in fact, when you look at financial series and you have dozens of Right Oh Chinese market today looks like what was So so first of all, I mean the suggestion We are missing an If we can have some measure of temperature Here we are the property of the Prediction Absolutely, and I think that's You know You know what I think that's one advantage of having that's again, let's talk about that meta model that selects what state is It's much better if you have something that's driven by some other exogenous process that you can examine and Use the forecast and predict even if you just even if you just can observe it in situ and say, okay This is where we're at. This is the environment We're in and and obviously if you if you look I mean the results here if you looked at the Because they're highly correlated the this and the British won't and you'd find us Everything's pretty much the same Oh, no, no, but I'm sorry. Yeah, right, right. Yes. Yeah. Oh, yeah Well, you know the thing is though that you know, what's interesting here though is that these these drawdown behaviors Which include the effect of financial bubbles remember I wasn't just modeling the big financial drawdowns. I was modeling all of them Right and and the whole the whole distribution fit very well Right because most of it when you when you when you're you know, in fact if you use something even if you use like a Fairly tough one like a comagora smirnoff when you're looking at the maximum deviation in the in the CDFs These things these things are all the same Well, well, yeah, well, maybe well, maybe you know, maybe then you end you have to sort of frack the light from process right, so I don't know but but the point here is that you know, it's There's there's a very Definite easily sort of identifiable behavior to these drawdowns and it's been fairly stable over nearly 200 years and When you and I will tell you if you look at other markets, you will find exactly the same thing And if you look at other types of markets, not just equity markets, you will find exactly Okay, there's one more question. I don't want to Yeah Problem Well drawdown not the pressure Seems that you are the normal you can explain Oh, no, no, yeah, no normal doesn't slide No, no, no, actually, I think actually that the difference was that with a normal distribution the distributions of these drawdowns is exponential which is Not fact.  It's memoryless, right? Exactly, so whereas whereas the whereas the if you look at the real the real markets, they have Pareto distribution and They have quite fat tails. I mean those exponents were one more between 1.6 and 2.3 And those are relatively low exponents and that means you have some fairly fat tails Right, but but I guess I guess what I'm saying is other things that we have to be you know, when we talk about we talk about what's what may happen We have to be prepared for what? You know where I mean, there's pretty good solid evidence that what may happen is pretty big I mean, you know, it's it's you know, and I think I think we we tend to you know First of all, again, I think there's really two points here. One is that in order to gain some insight You have to look back over Long as long a period of time as possible to it is surprising that many many many things you look at You can go back 200 years and find the data is relevant completely relevant, you know It's very important to understand that and and and the third thing is when you do that and you are successful Isn't always true that you can go back all the stuff, but when you can do that you find you find some very surprising Things about the world, you know and and and in finance It's it's usually that we live in a fat-tailed world Okay, so well, let's thank dr. Fray for a great


how successfully an individual human being can perform a certain action. Essentially means to what extent your body takes instructions from you, to what extent your thought and emotion cooperates with you, to what extent you can get all your energies focused in one direction, to what extent you can get the situations around you to go with you. But before all this happens, how clearly you see something is the most important thing. If you can't see clearly, but your action is great in the wrong direction, then very successfully we will fail. So the foremost thing is always to develop a certain clarity of perception that if you sit here, you clearly perceive what is the situation around you. All yogic processes are essentially about enhancing your perception because it is the profoundness of your perception which brings clarity to every aspect of life.  If you could sit in your office, if someone enters your office, if you could know what to expect from the person who comes in front of you without uttering a word, it would be good, isn't it? So much rubbish would be cut out. A little bit of work is needed to keep the system at a certain level of alertness. If you put it through a certain few paces, eating right, sitting right, breathing right, doing things right, holding the body right, if you do these things for some time consciously one or two months, you will see the alertness in the body will come to a status where just anything, if something comes in front of you, simply you can feel it out. Whether it's business, a personal life or just life, everything will get enhanced. If your perception is keen enough…


Hey there Foundation staff, Sherm here, and welcome to Sherm's Declassified Skip Survival Guide. Today we are going to talk about one of the most important and under-appreciated jobs in the SCP community, giving critique and how to do it well. The goal is to help more community members become good critters so we can continue to grow. I don't think I'm being controversial when I say that more talented critters would be a helpful addition to the community. Beyond skimming around the forums, I also checked out betterwritingfeedback.com for advice for this guide. Yeah, bet you didn't know that website was a thing. Go check it out for more in-depth critique giving help. Study it. Learn it. Before I dive into the meat of this episode, I want to give thanks to those heroes who take the time to do what is essentially a real job in the outside world for free in the SCP community. You guys have all the skills that I'm about to list and are willing to put in time that you could be doing literally anything else to comb through sometimes illegible and ridiculous ideas and help shape them into the excellent quality work that we strive for on the SCP Wiki. For anyone wanting to step up and learn how to give the critiques that help a skip survive on the main list, the first thing you need to know is that giving critique is a skill, and like any skill, you will improve with training and practice. There are four base skills that help to build your critiquing skill. You have to be an excellent writer, editor, proofreader, and teacher. Let's break those down. The first one should be fairly obvious.  Maybe you take a creative writing class in school. Maybe you get some textbooks online and teach yourself. Whatever you have to do to make yourself a capable writer. This also means you should probably be a hardcore reader. Turns out that most people who are good at writing read a lot and absorb lessons from texts that they have read previously. Sidebar, on top of being a good all-around writer, you should also be very familiar with the skip wiki style and flex cannon. It's great to be a good writer, but if you aren't knowledgeable about the wiki, you won't be able to help people write for the wiki. The next two, editing and proofreading, are often thought of as the same thing, but we need to separate them a little bit. Editing is the macro sweep. You're looking to see if the story makes sense and if all the ideas are presented clearly. Remember that any idea can be a skip if done well, even if it isn't your favorite flavor of idea. And this is where that happens. Proofreading is all about the minutiae. Spelling and grammatical layers, punctuation, formatting issues.  Finally, you have to be a teacher. A teacher transfers knowledge from themselves to others. This requires extreme patience and excellent communication skills. There's another level of difficulty because you are doing this via text on the internet, where untrained writers will likely seek retakes as personal attacks. You have to make sure to be overly respectful and positive. If you call their idea or their writing garbage, they aren't going to listen to anything else you have to say, no matter how good your critiques might be. We don't need a bunch of house MD wannabes dicking around the community. We need more misfrizzles cultivating new writers' talents and expanding imaginations. To cap things off, here's a couple quick bonus tips that might help you in your critting career. It helps to present yourself as a good writer by typing with proper grammar and punctuation in your critiques. Typical internet shorthand doesn't instill confidence in your abilities. The most common complaint to feedback receivers is that the feedback they got was too general or vague to be of any help. Make sure you are specific in your critiques, for example, instead of saying, spelling in grammatical errors everywhere. Take the time to say, in the second paragraph, you misspelled blank. It takes longer, but if you're going to do something, take the time to do it right. Along the same lines, feedback is not about just fixing the SCP. It's also about guidance in helping the writer learn so that you don't have to correct the same mistake for the same person again and again and again. Don't forget to tell them why the correction is necessary. For instance, instead of saying, the O5s would never do that, you could say, the O5 council is almost always stoic and in control, so they wouldn't lose their cool and make an all caps note with 15 expletives. This has been a short guide to becoming a better critter for the SCP or any other writing community. Take what you've learned to clean up yours and other skips to create the SCP authors of the future and to help them learn to give good crit as well. Thank you guys for tuning into another episode of Sherm's Declassified Skip Survival Guide. If you like what we're doing on the channel, do that like, share, and subscribe Mumbo Jumbo, and don't forget to click the bell. And if you really like what's going on around here, hit up the Site 42 Patreon or the Site 42 Store and support the channel that way. You can also join the Site 42 Discord server if you want to venture deeper into Site 42 itself. See you next time, Foundation staff.


We're going to do a simulation of a dust explosion. This is a demonstration of surface area. I'm going to put the flower inside a small container in the can. That container is hooked to a tube that runs outside the can. Inside the can is also a candle. I'm going to close the lid and blow suddenly on the tube. This will disperse the flower as a fine dust inside the can. The dust will combust rapidly, building up pressure inside the can.


What is up everybody welcome back to the channel you guys in this video I'm gonna simply show you how to request access to a Facebook business page and To a Facebook ad manager, and I'm gonna tell you the difference. I'm gonna walk you through the difference and really explain to you in detail Why this is so important when you start running ads for for clients So for those of you that are that are a digital marketing agency or a freelancer or you're you're you're just aspiring To to get into the industry. This is the most important is is knowing how to request access the right way I get this time and time again in my comments on YouTube So I'm gonna kind of just do a real-time live video I got I got my buddy on the line with me and we're gonna just do a test run on How to request access to to a page and I'm gonna I'm gonna have him log into his ads manager Which which this is his business manager right here and we're gonna do a test run Requesting access to my page. Okay, and you guys will see exactly How to do this and so when I'm on that I'm on when I'm on when I'm on a call with a client with a potential client And we're going over all this I'm doing it on zoom and I'm sharing my screen Because visually walking the client through this and telling them what to click on is the most important, okay? So again, we're playing the part where where he's the actual Agency and I am the client. Okay, so if he is all of a sudden gonna start running Facebook ads for me He needs access to my to my business page and or my ads manager, okay? And we're gonna do both of them actually we're gonna do both of them and if you caught any of my previous videos The only reason why I'll request access to just the business page Which I'm gonna show you right now how to do that part first and then we'll do the ads manager But the reason for the business page in the beginning is only if you're running one ad Like with me if you caught my videos here on YouTube, I start clients off 99% of the time with one ad and that's the like ad because 100% of Facebook business pages have 200 likes So that's normally the first ad I'm helping clients with taking that 200 light count to 2200, right? That's normally the first ad normally That's the only ad that I'll run up front for somebody right now So in that case all I do is I request access to their business page and I run that ad from my ad account So I only need access to the business page. I don't need the ad account right now And and that's where I start them now. That's what I'm gonna walk you guys through right now We're gonna walk you through just the business page now after the like ad when I take that client on as a Monthly client and now we're talking retainer now We're talking, you know them hiring me to run multiple ads and conversion ads and traffic ads That's when I'll then request access to their ad account So I can start running these ads through their ad account and Facebook can start charging them But most importantly so they can start seeing the metrics and all the numbers, okay? That's when they'll be able to view everything because now I'm running everything through their account. No passwords needed I run it through my end but from their ad account and again You have to request access to the ad account to even do any of that. So I'm gonna walk you through both steps, okay? business page and The ads manager so when let's do just the business page. Let's say you're you're I'm hiring you to run one single ad for me So all you need to do is is is request access to my page So right at the top you're gonna click on the blue button You're gonna go request access to a page and then you're gonna simply what I do to make it easy Is I go to that business page on Facebook? I copy the URL and then I just come over back over to the business settings and Business page watch your you are so just type in type in my name and then click on my name right then in the intro Right here. Yep Okay, so let's say for example, and this is what I do when I'm online with a client you guys, right? So I'm we're sharing screens and I'm walking them through this so I'll copy that link, right? That's my page You take that you bring it back to the to the settings right here pages Paste it in click on the drop down. You always want to see the drop down If you don't see that drop down, you didn't grab the right link Okay, always make sure you see the drop down and what I do is I'll normally only go with with create ads if I'm only gonna do one single ad I'll just do create ads you can go manage page and get full control you can do that as well But again, this is just what I do in the beginning. I'll start them off with one one ad I only need create ads. So go ahead and do that request access. So now here's what here's what I tell the client Okay, mr. Business owner. I just requested access. Can you now share your screen? And I'll show you where to accept the request. Okay, so business owner. Can you share your screen? Yes? So go ahead and stop sharing your screen Now what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna come over to my screen and you're gonna simply walk me through it Right, this is what I tell the client. Um, and so now we tell the client, okay Share your screen and all you're gonna do is you're gonna go to your business page and on the left-hand side I'll show you right over here.  This is what I'm telling the client, right? Mr. Business owner Click on settings on the left-hand side You're gonna come over here to the left scroll down and you're gonna click on page rolls Okay, click on page rolls and then right over here in the middle of the page mr. Business owner You're gonna see inspired digital. Okay, so you'll scroll down just a bit and you'll see right here and There goes your business royal media marketing, right? So this is what what I'm telling the client Okay, and then I'm gonna tell the client okay go ahead and respond to request and It's gonna come up right here All you're gonna do is click on continue Accept request and then Facebook's gonna ask you for your password always make sure they put in their password If they do not then you don't have you don't have access to their page. So right there. I just gave him When I send you so I need your password you need my no no no this is my screen This is my password. I put in my password. You don't need to know nothing Right, you're telling the client. Hey share your screen click on settings click on page rolls You're gonna see my name royal media marketing.  You're gonna put in your password Okay, okay, okay So now let's see what happens now. So I stop share go back to your your business settings Should I share? Yeah? Okay, so now if you refresh this page Go to refresh the page So since I put in my password, I accept your request now as you refresh the page now It says right there permissions given and the permissions given at the top create ads view page Performance that's it. So now what you want to do right away is you want to add people? So you're gonna click on add people and you must add your name Nope add people not the not the ad add people to the right So now you're gonna click on your name right there You're gonna click on create ads because that's what and you see it there darker, right? Those two are darker because that's what you requested up front you click a sign and That's it. That's how you request access to a Facebook business page Which will give you the ability to run it through your ad account You can run ads through your ad account, but from their business page. Okay now again This is only for for for one time ads right for one time ads and in this case It's a like ad right if it was any other ad if it was any other ad I would not be doing it this way, which we're gonna now do the ad manager and the reason why you are the ad account I should say there's those are the two things that you request an access to one or the other or or both or whatever Now Again the business page Request an access to only the business page gives me the ability to run one ad But the reason why I don't want to do any more than that is because and now so now as I move on my value ladder For example now let now let's say okay David the like ad was was a success Let's go out there and start running ads for leads perfect and that's where I want the client, right? That's where I want them eventually now now they're paying me to teach them and Maybe they're paying me monthly to do it for them. Whatever, but but my point is now I want access to the ad account because every other ad that I run from this point on I want that Hold up. I want that data to be stored in their account So as we run traffic ads all that data needs to be in their account as we run video ads all that data The custom audiences need to be in their account the custom conversions I need to set up in their account the pixel comes from their account Right. So all of that comes as I request access to the ad account But I didn't need any of that stuff up front because in the beginning I only need your business page I'm only running a like ad So your pixel custom conversions audiences none of that shit matters, right? None of that matters I don't need none of that right now but again if if if now we're moving on to the next level in my value ladder for example and And now they're gonna bring me on as a as a consultant or a monthly, you know marketing agency for them Now now we need a request access to the ad account. Okay, so here's what you're gonna do now now What can happen here is you can either remove yourself right here what we just did we request access to the business page You can come over here and click remove or or let me share my screen Stop share Or I can come over here to my screen and I can just remove you Okay, okay, so I and I even tell the client that all the time I say mr. Client once the like ad is over you can come over here and simply click on remove Right, but what I do when I'm in my business settings just like you so go back to your to your to your screen share screen so I Know when that like ad ends for example, right? So once it ends I come over here and I and I just remove myself Because I don't need to be I don't need to be a part of any of these pages If I'm only gonna run one ad and I'm not gonna continue no big deal. I just remove myself I'll do it before they even do it, right? So so That's just that that way I have my my stuff clean over here I don't want, you know, 37 pages. I don't want to be connected to all of them at all Especially if I'm not doing business with them anymore, right? So so refresh this page go to refresh it and you'll see my my page there. You'll see it gone Go to refresh it So now it's gone. Okay. That's requesting access to a business page Okay So now let's say because boy on what he wants to do is he wants to freaking start turning people into Facebook ad ninjas So he wants to start teaching them how to run ads or or or maybe start doing it for them monthly, right? So now you're gonna request access to my ad account. Okay, so let's do that Let's click on ad accounts. So now we're shifting gears We're gonna go request access to an ad account and that's it right there So request access to an ad account now what I normally do is I normally do number two is all do you could type your ad account I type I do follow these steps to request access to an ad account Contact the owner of the ad account ask them to go to the ad account tab in their business manager and click a sign Partner number three give to give you access. They'll need to enter the number below and choose a role So that's what I normally do. I do number two. I do the the the one two three steps So here's what you're gonna do. You're gonna copy that number right there and send it to me in the chat Go ahead and copy that number Send it to me here in the chat. Okay. So now I have this Where'd your where'd your check? Oh, let me go. Okay. Here we go. So now I got your ID number.  I'm gonna assign a partner Okay, so I'm gonna assign a partner and then it says business ID or get linked to share I'm gonna click on the blue one business ID I'm gonna simply paste in that number and I'm gonna give you access.  So now I'm gonna hit next and now I click on done So now as I refresh my page Let me go to and refresh my page Now as I as I as I refresh my page, I'll be able to come over here Click on add accounts to the left click on partners and there goes my partner right there So now go it in and if I want to remove you I can just hit the trash can and remove you So when you have and I have access to your ad account, I have access to everything, right? I don't need yeah, so now I'm gonna show you what's going on now now I'm gonna show you what's going on so Now go ahead and share your screen Okay, so now if you hit cancel go ahead and cancel out of this Okay, so now as you come back to your page you refresh it and boom there you see it right there Inspired digital don't click on it, but you have it right there. Okay, so now Now you have access to my ad account now you have my pixel you can set up custom audiences You can set up custom conversions all that through that ad account now if you click on the three lines to the At the top there and go to the ads manager Go ahead and click on that go to the ads manager Okay, okay, so so now now you refresh the page you see inspired digital Now what's super super important is you must click on it Which you just did inspire digital and then you must add people so go ahead and add your name Yep, either one add people So you'll see it over here your name click on that and then and then full control full control You see all of them dark. They're all dark. So full control done.  All right guys. So that's how you do it If you're new to the channel, my name is David This my buddy boy on running Facebook ads built in an agency getting clients on social media marketing services and all the above So if you're into this type of stuff subscribe smash the bell for notifications and drop me a comment below Let me know where you guys are coming from and let me know how I can bring value to what you're doing online I'll see you guys on the next video over now


Hello there everybody watching in the world wide web. I hope you guys are okay I hope your day is going well things are getting a little bit more stressful over here that we're on day five of quarantine I want to make sure you guys are okay in your marriages and give you a few tips that have worked well for our family And I'll just launch right into them Number one one of the things that my husband and I fought about for years and when we continue to have struggles at times that creep up is Usually around this recurring issue and that is we are opposites when it comes to planning and structure So I have severe adult ADHD. I'm much more spontaneous. I resist structure. I resist planning and And so for me, I feel suffocated when someone tries to pin me down and say, hey, let's plan our day or let's plan What grocery neat we need or what are we gonna make this week's menu plan? I start to feel kind of panicky inside and I get really stressed out whereas my husband Shlomo feels panicky when I Resist all of his attempts to create some sort of structure And he's there with a pen and paper wanting to make some sort of list and it's like we butt heads So one of the things that helped with was this was number one Oh, be aware of the dynamic because it's an opposite dynamic It's like push and pulling and just kind of realizing that's what's going on for you in the background Awareness is usually half the battle.  We're gonna get this done And he's really doing it to help me not to make things more difficult for me But you know our brains are so wired to protect us and so we do this fight or flight or freezer submit kind of thing Because chances are when we were kids we had to do something, you know, that was felt unsafe So we had to protect ourselves. So we went into this mode. So just I have to take a deep breath and remind myself Okay, I'm not a child. I'm an adult. I can do this And that awareness helps going along with that It also helps when I ask my husband to give me a time limit on these conversations So I'll say, you know, like I really need to know this conversation isn't gonna go on for hours and hours He'll be like, I just need five minutes of your time and having a boundary on the time That he's gonna need to talk to me about creating the structure is very very helpful to me So that's kind of tips number one and two Number three Fear of missing out. We are on social media all day now. There's all these live streams There's all these educational activities our kids could do the first day of quarantine I was like Mary Poppins, you know, we're gonna have a schedule. We're gonna have structure I was like an event planner Planning all the live streams and hookups they could watch and I turned into a mess the end of the day I was exhausted and I was grouchy and it was not helpful. I decided I'm not doing that anymore The kids will do a minimal amount of their homework that is sent by their school the rest of the day They're riding bikes. They're playing. They're fighting. They're building. They're painting I don't care as long as they're alive and safe and happy and they're getting along. I don't care what they actually do They're doing plenty of crafts. They're being creative and it will get done But they have their whole lives ahead of them to learn and have structure in a school format This quarantine is not going to go on forever So you don't need to suddenly turn into you miss supermom and miss homeschooling mom Because those require certain skills and experience that I just don't have right now So as long as everybody's fed clean and happy I don't care what they're doing and I'm gonna give up on that fear of missing out or the social pressure Watching other people with what they're doing I'm giving up on that because it's not me and I gotta let it go and I'm just letting it go and I really Encourage you to know what your strengths are what your weaknesses are and just let it go let let whatever is not your strength go teachers are super powers and That was number three and number four so The thing about this quarantine is that it really reveals the state of your marriage if your marriage was basically good You're probably gonna be fine, you know with this quarantine You'll have some good moments. You'll have some uncomfortable moments But you'll relatively be fine if your marriage wasn't in a good place already This whole quarantine is going to amplify that and make it worse So you want to use this time now to really learn how to get yourselves good in a good space and sometimes that takes a professional and That's okay because professionals are working online now. They're doing zoom calls couples. I just read a thread from our colleagues couples are going into their car and having Therapy sessions with their marriage counselor in their car using a hotspot using mobile data to Learn how to communicate and have crucial conversations together in the car And if that's what you can do that is a huge opportunity Couples are shutting the door in the bedroom couples are doing these sessions after hours when the kids are in bed Use this opportunity to be determined that this coronavirus is not going to get the better of you It's not going to get the better of your relationship You're going to use this to come out stronger and you can definitely private message me use my website the marriage restoration project Com talk to us about scheduling some online counseling work for the two of you So you can really get through this and come out on the other side Better and stronger because I refuse to let this coronavirus take yet another thing from us Which is our marriage people are joking about how there's going to be new babies or new divorces after the virus And I prefer to hear about all the new babies that you end up having So those are the four tips for me today Rufus Lackin and just hang in there. I'm here to help and please You have any questions you'd like to see answered don't hesitate to contact me and I'll answer them anonymously. Take care


Okay, in this video, hopefully it will be relatively brief. I want to talk about molecules with aromatic functional groups. If you remember from last week, I said that a molecule with an aromatic functional group had to have six carbons in a ring, and it has to be six, and it has to be a ring, and the other feature that it has to have is you have to have alternating double and single bonds like that. This is the simplest molecule that has an aromatic functional group. It's called benzene. You don't need to know that. This is a component of gasoline. One thing that I'm going to point out, and usually I give an explanation for why this is, but I'm not going to talk about that. You can see the double bonds and the single bonds in this molecule. People who have studied these molecules very carefully have noticed that you can think of the double bonds as constantly flipping around. The double bond is here, but every split second, it moves over there. This one moves over there, and that one moves over there. This is also benzene, even though the double bonds have moved positions. You can think of those double bonds as essentially racing around inside of the ring. Because of that, because of the double bonds and the single bonds are not really stuck in place, there is another way to draw a molecule with an aromatic functional group. That is to draw the ring, this little collection there, but instead of drawing the individual single and double bonds, people just draw a circle in the middle. That circle is supposed to say, look, those double and single bonds are not really fixed in place. They're racing around inside. If you see this, that also means aromatic functional group. That is basically all I want to talk about in this video. The process of having the double bonds and single bonds flip around like that in chemistry, it's called a resonance. If you ever take a full course in organic chemistry, you spend an awful lot of time talking about resonance, but you do not need to know, you don't even need to know this word. It's just there on the slide for reasons that I can't remember. You can see aromatic compounds everywhere. This is aspirin. Aspirin has an aromatic functional group. This is ibuprofen. You can see the aromatic functional group. They can be drawn like this or they can be drawn like that, and I want you to realize that you could see it in either way. That's the end of this video.


Hi guys, it's Monica. I am going to share with you a wig review. This wig was actually sent to me complimentary from Wigs Studio One, so that I could share it with you all. You know, hair loss, and everyone has a different journey with hair, right? Some of you, I often say this, some of you have been blessed with a full, beautiful, gorgeous thick head of hair, and some not, right? And so my hair is on the thin side, and I find wearing toppers and wearing fake buns, as I call them, or wraps, I find that enhances, and even like little trendles of times, enhances my bio hair, which is on the thin side. I also love wearing them because then it saves on processing my hair. I don't have to have my roots done as much, et cetera. But I can wear a topper. I can get away with that. However, some people can't. So for some people, a full wig is the way to go. And I often really relish the opportunity to try different looks, different colors, different styles, different manufacturers, because I manufacture different companies because I think sometimes the more I can share with those of you that aren't our on a hair journey, being at hair loss, so you just wanna have different looks and all of that that you can actually see what it looks like on a real person. That's how I often look at it. So I might review pieces that I won't wear personally day to day because maybe the color is wrong, or it's just too much of a dramatic change for me from my bio hair that I wear every day to work, sometimes with the topper, sometimes with the bun, sometimes not, sometimes I just wear it the way it is. So for me all of a sudden to come out with this, everyone would obviously see a dramatic difference. But if you didn't know me and I wore this out, you may not know.  They're not, they're not your grandmother's wigs. And this particular one, Ellen Villa, this is called Flip Mono. Now, I have this in Nugget Rooted, and I really love the color. So I have done a review for Wake Studio One, I'm gonna close everything that I did here, but I just wanted you guys to see it as well because I like to share these looks with you. So, Ellen Villa, Wake Studio One, complimentary if you're curious about the details and the review, stay tuned. If you are into brunette shades and short sassy styles, you are gonna absolutely love this brand new piece. So let me just tell you a little bit. I think I'm super excited about the color as well. So this is Nugget Rooted and they say this is a medium light ash brown blended with medium honey blonde on medium and dark brown roots. To me, it isn't a medium light ash brown. I'm seeing more of a medium darker brown blended with golden blonde and lighter ash brown. I'm loving the rooting pattern. I'm loving the highlight pattern of this piece. I don't know if it's gonna pick it up here, but I'm gonna show you some outside pictures here of me walking in the yard so you can see what it looks like in the natural light. This is really a pretty piece. And again, like I said, if you're into short hair and you want something that's classic but something that is fun, this is going to be it. This is part of the hair power collection from Ellen Villa and this is called Flip Mono. They describe this as a refined, ultra modern look that will turn heads wherever you go. It has a beautiful lace front. It has a monofilament cap, really nice ear tabs that stay put and a Velcro adjusters in the back so that you can cinch it in if you need or cinch it out if you want. I have a 22-inch circumference. This fits me like a glove, fits really nice on me. So this is the type of style that if you are into bangs, you can comb this straight down if you'd like or you can flip it like I have it split a little bit. I have it split a little bit. You can punk this up, you can take some peace out gel and set it up if you want or you can wear it down more refined. The edges are so super cute. With all the little flip edges, it just really is adorable. I really like this. This is super amazing. I think the versatility of this look. So let's see what else it says. So this is, like I said, a lace front. Lace front is very, very nicely done and it has a monofilament top. I've done nothing to this. I just took it out of the box and shook it but if you wanted to put some styling product in it, you could probably fluff it up in a completely different way or tame it down if that's what you really would like. You can wear this tucked behind the ears completely with a little bit of fringe in the front or you could just comb it all forward. Really awesome. I really love it. The back has little flips so it's textured, comes up in a flip. Really a, I would definitely say a fuss-free look. So this was sent to me complimentary from Wig Studio One as I said, so you could take a look at it. And I think oftentimes, you know, you see a lot of the blondes but you don't often see a ton of the brunettes and many of us really like brunettes. Now I gravitate towards the blonde looks but this is really cute. I really like this. So the hair fiber is synthetic. So it's a shake and go. The front is about three inches. The crown is three and a half. The sides are three and the nape in the back is 2.5. Absolutely beautiful. And if you're not into brunettes, check out the website. Let me do another little closer look for you. Check out Wig Studio One's website. Check out all the different colors that you can see this in. This is really a nice piece. I hope you like it as much as I do. I think it's adorable. Thank you so much for watching. Bye-bye.


Georgia has been a very regular contributor demonstrating the absolute specificity of its identity and culture. This also coincides with the 25th anniversary of Sac Patenti, which is the National Intellectual Property Centre of Georgia. So that's another reason for us to be delighted to be hosting this event tonight. Today we would like to introduce you really a different Georgia. Eventually the Vipo has become Kosota house where all flavours of my country, modern Georgia and its cultural heritage meet. This exhibition together with the reception will cover all the IP objects starting from the copyright protected works which you will see there, music and some innovation in the sculpture working. There will be the geographical indications presented as well as wines and cheeses and other Georgian delicious dishes and I strongly advise all of you to follow Georgia and to follow those flavours which you will see in the music, in arts.