Razul just had the first round of his historic election on October 2nd, that Sunday, widely watched election across the world. We will be talking about this in this episode of Mapping Fault Lines. We have with us Prabir Prakash. So, Prabir, widely watched election, like I said, it was expected that Lula Darcilu, the former president, who's making a powerful comeback after being persecuted for many years, it was expected that he might just edge through and win in the first round itself. He did lead, of course, but did not achieve that victory many of his supporters were looking for. And we also have Jair Bolsonaro, the incumbent president who did much stronger than expected. Now, I know that we don't make predictions on this show, especially about elections or wars for that matter. But what are your first thoughts regarding some of these, you know, these two developments specifically, Lula's lead as well as the more than expected showing with Bolsonaro? Well, let's look at the numbers first, because I think that makes sense. If we go by the exit polls, the Lula was supposed to have got 48.48% votes and Bolsonaro was supposed to have got about 37, 38% votes. So that was the prediction. Compared to that, Lula hasn't done anything different. He's still got 48% of the votes, but Bolsonaro has done about 5% better than that. So the shortfall in terms of the expectation is that Bolsonaro has done a lot better than the exit poll indicated. And therefore, Lula did not go over the 50% mark, which people thought he might that since he was so close, people might say, okay, he's already very close. Let's step him over the top. That didn't happen. Now, these exit poll figures are not different from what the poll predictions were even earlier. That Bolsonaro was trailing behind about maybe about 8% to 10% at certain point, and Lula was very close to 50%. So Bolsonaro seems to have done better than what the expectations were either in the earlier polls, opinion polls or in the exit polls. And while Lula's numbers have remained steady, they didn't go over from 48% to 50%, which would have given him a first round victory. And therefore, it would have meant that there would have been no second election. There would have been no runoff elections. The other part of this election is that if we look at not just the presidential poll, but how have the candidates fared in the Senate and other chamber, which is there in Brazil. Also, the governor's elections, what we find is in the governor's elections, for example, Sao Paulo on the left was supposed to do quite a bit better. It didn't. It trailed the right. The right seems to have picked up more seats in the elections to the Congress than what was expected. So it does appear the right has done better than what was expected. And that doesn't just include Bolsonaro's election, his figures, but also the figures across the country of the right who are contesting for governors, Congress, etc. So given all of that, yes, hope there is a good chance that Lula will maintain his lead and the runoff will go over the top, beat Bolsonaro, but it's become a much closer election and therefore more difficult to predict. The question is why was the Bolsonaro vote underestimated? And is there a pattern that the right wing votes tends to get underestimated? For example, like the Trump vote, if you remember the Hillary Clinton elections, all the exit polls said Hillary Clinton is winning when Trump really won the election. So is there a confirmation bias? Is there a voting bias in terms of the exit poll that the right wing does not really declare what it is going to do? Is there a shame factor involved? As people argued that a lot of people were ashamed to vote for Trump and therefore did not say who they were voting for. So it's not clear why or is the confirmation bias that the exit polls does themselves do not go to the sections who might represent a different constituency and they really overpull the kind of people they are. And therefore there is a bias in terms of the sample itself. These are open questions. We don't know to what extent these are true or not true. All we can say at the moment is that, yes, Lula seems to be better off than Bolsonaro. He's leading by 5% votes over Bolsonaro. And if the 7% vote which has gone to the centrist candidates, it does appear that the centrist candidates might question mark, might actually endorse Lula and therefore he will go over the top. Even now, Bolsonaro has a 7% gap to make up. Lula has a 2% gap to make up to go over the top. So yes, looking at these numbers, Lula seems to be much closer. But since these are not voters who have voted for either Bolsonaro or for Lula, we do not know which way it can go. There is also the risk that Bolsonaro may not accept the results if he loses in the final round in the run-off elections. And he might like Trump question the veracity of the elections itself. So that risk is also there and let us see whether the Brazilian democracy is strong enough to sustain such a challenge because Bolsonaro has been saying these things from the beginning. If he wins, he wins against all attempts to defeat him, including fraud in elections. If he loses, then of course the elections could be as we've lost because of fraud. So I think that risk is very much there. But we'll have to see how strong Brazilian democracy is in order to declare the results as they have recorded. Right, Prabir, absolutely. Of course, the election in Brazil important not only for that country, but for the entire region as well, in fact, the whole of the Americas. So could you also maybe take us through what really these two visions represent, what Bolsonaro and Lula represent when we're looking at, you know, what they mean for Brazil from a global sense, so to speak. Well, it's very clear that Bolsonaro is the last now remaining candidate of the right for a major Latin American country. So if he loses, then you have all the major countries in Latin America who belong to some kind of a left-wing platform. They do not agree on lots of issues. For instance, Chile, the president has a different position, for instance, on the Ukraine war, but a lot of other issues, they seem to agree. And of course, on the basic issue of poverty, the rich, should the taxes be lowered for the rich, etc., etc., which is really where the major social questions hinge in these countries, they are on the same side. So given that if Brazil also joins other left-wing countries, then it's a huge shift in political discourse in Latin America. And let's not forget Latin America has been the backwater of the United States. They have taken for granted that this is within the boundary doctrine that they really control or should have the right to control Latin America. But increasingly, the trade of these countries have also shifted from the United States to, for example, China. So given that there has been economic shifts, there is also the BRICS countries, which originally had raised the issue on foreign trade taxes, financial inflows, how to regulate all of that. So if Brazil also the left wins, then it means that the strengthening of BRICS may also take place, which in today's world is a significant, would be a significant change, particularly as the world seems to be or the US wants to divide the world in terms of those who are authoritarian and those who are liberal, in which actually Bolsonaro would be on the authoritarian side. But as we know that in their view, scheme of things left is authoritarian and anybody to the right is democratic, irrespective of whether they are authoritarian to the people or not. So I think, therefore, Lula's shift or Lula's coming or winning in Brazil would make a huge difference because, A, he has taken Latin America. B, Brazil is the biggest economy. So if Brazil comes out on the side of an independent Latin American economy, which is what a lot of the earlier presidency that he did, he was one of the ones who pioneered this along, of course, with Venezuela and, of course, with other countries as well. But he was a very important element in this, since he has come, if he comes back, then I think this is something which would really disturb the United States, particularly at a point of time when it is fighting Russia with economic sanctions and it is fighting China on the issue of not only Taiwan, but also sanctions on technology, technology sanctions. So energy sanctions in Russia, technology sanctions in China. So therefore Latin America becomes a very sensitive issue for the United States because still now they have taken it for granted and they are increasingly finding that their writ is not going to run in Latin America that easily. Even in Bolsonaro wins, there would be the other countries which have already defected, so to say, from the modern doctrine. So that's already there. But Brazil makes a huge difference, of course. It is also true that Bolsonaro is a little difficult for them to publicly endorse given that they talk about authoritarianism as a main threat. And there is no way they can cover up the fact that Bolsonaro is an authoritarian and is a very divisive figure. Thank you so much for talking to us. We'll be discussing many similar issues in future episodes of Mapping Portlines. Until then, keep watching NewsClick.


The hat is back, the hat is back, we're feeling autumnal. I feel confident in the hat now. Come on, welcome back to my channel. Today, I'm gonna do a video that I'm really excited to film. It's gonna be called like cozy coffee shop book recommendation. So one of my favorite things to do, especially in the autumn, which it is so dark today in the UK, like autumn has begun. Look at this autumnal ensemble. But it did not give what needed to be gave. Yeah, one of my favorite things to do is go and sit in a coffee shop and read a book. I love the feeling of just being engrossed in a book in a cozy coffee shop. So I'm gonna give you some book recommendations that I think you need to pick up right now.  Yes, and read one of these books basically. So yeah, that's also gonna be, it's also like autumnal recommendation. So books I think are good to read in autumn and let's just get into it. So the first one you'll know that I absolutely loved if you watched my most recent vlog, which is where Ronnie Marie picked what I read. I read some of her favorite books. It's They Never Learn by Lane Fargo. So first, he told me this cover doesn't make you think of like autumn coffee shop. Oh my God. Oh my God. The image, the fantasy I have of me reading this in a coffee shop is like no other. It's a lot of fantasies and when I feel the fantasy, it is my reality. So this is about a professor at this university who kills men.  But now people are starting to wonder is there perhaps a link with all these murders? There's also this other storyline of a young girl who has just joined the university and is kind of trying to figure out her place in this very like ecology kind of atmosphere, right? That those boys operate in and it was so good. This was five stars. I tell you, there's this twist halfway through that I did not see coming. I mean, I am gullible. I'm gullible.  You're not smart. You're not smart. So I often don't guess things correctly, but the twist was outstanding. It was such a good twist. It blew my socks off and it has this very much like autumnal atmosphere to the book. Also, right? Also, this is one of the books I've read quickest in a long time. I was reading like 90 pages in half an hour. Like I was absolutely flying through it. So I think that's another thing that helps in like a cozy kind of coffee shop atmosphere. You may not be there very long. So you want a book that flies super duper fast. So that is what this book is. Oh my God, like I've never read a book this fast. Genuinely, I was just like flying through it. I had to know what happened. Such a great thriller, really relevant to today in kind of its attitude towards women and justice for like men's crimes. Also, an honorable mention. The best memory I have, I didn't put this on the list, but the best memory I have of reading in a coffee shop is the Kite Runner. When I was like 13, 14, I used to say that was my favorite book and I haven't read it since. I haven't reread it in like eight years. So I feel like I need to do that and see what I think of it now. But I remember sitting in this coaster, which if you're from the UK, is the superior coffee shop chain. Starbucks isn't cozy. Starbucks isn't cozy, but Costa is. And I was sitting in a coaster and I just devoured the book and I really want to reread it because I haven't read it in ages. Anyway, next recommendation I have for you is Pages and Code, Tilly and the Book Wanderers by Anna James. So this is a middle grade, which I think is another good recommendation because, you know, it's you'll read it fast, right? You will fly through it just because of the nature of the book. Tilly lives above her grandparents' bookshop. One day, her favorite book characters start appearing in the bookshop and like walking around and she's like, what? It's just a very cute, magical, fantasy middle grade. It really brings alive the love of reading and books for kids. I just think it's so like cute and wholesome. I would love to sit with a hot chocolate and a comfy sofa reading this. There's a really nice friendship in this. A lot of classic books that I think a lot of us love from our childhood are explored. I think there's Alice in Wonderland, there's Anna of Green Gables. Those kind of characters appear. I loved Anna of Green Gables when I was like eight. So yeah, I think it's to be another one that would just feel wonderful sitting in that cozy shop and reading it with like a hot chocolate. And then another one, which I would recommend, which I have to recommend, I can't not recommend it, is The Strange Case of the Alchemist, daughter by Theodora Goss, probably my favorite book. She's an icon. She's a legend. And she is the moment. Now, come on now. This is, oh, my God, the perfect autumnal book, the perfect autumnal book. So in this, we're following daughters and female versions of classic men from Victorian literature. So we've got Mary Jekyll and Diana Hyde. We've got Justine Frankenstein, Catherine Moreau and Beatrice Rappuccini. And then there's kind of Girlgang, but this book is very much them coming together. Sherlock and Watson also play a massive role in this book, but they're kind of perfectly side characters. Sherlock doesn't take over the book like he definitely could. It's set like in Victorian London. There's a mystery going on. There's a murder mystery going on. And it's just told in this fantastic way. Oh, my God, the audiobook is incredible. It's on script. I'd really recommend you go and listen to it if you haven't. One of my favorite parts of the book, which I know is like hit or miss for a lot of people, is how Catherine is writing the book. And so the girls will cut in with their thoughts on certain things happening like partway through the book. Oh, I just love it. It's like this wholesome, cosy, wonderful book. I'm actually about to reread theirs. I'm going to reread it with my patrons for my Patreon book club. I have a monthly book club over there. And usually I will write on a round of TBR Cluj. But this month, just because of timing, they voted on rereading or reading one of my favorites. So I would reread it. This is what one, which I was happy about. I kind of wanted this to win. And I'm just so excited. I actually am about to cry. I'm so excited to reread it. So if you want to read it, come join the Patreon, come join the book club. I'll have a discussion live show. We've got the sessions in the Discord and I'll have a reading blog for it. So, yeah, I'll leave the link down below, but it's like the perfect book. And I'm a little bit scared to reread it because I'm scared that it's not going to live up to it for me, but also I'm just so excited. It feels like coming home. Like, it's just amazing. I can't wait to reread this whole series again and again. So maybe I'll have to pop to a coffee shop at some point when I'm rereading this. Next recommendation is another kind of murder mystery. And it is The Hangein Murders by Shashi Yokomizo. I really like this. It's a super short murder mystery, which is why I recommended it. It's only 181 pages. So I think you could definitely read this in one sitting in a cozy coffee shop with a cozy drink. This is a locked room murder mystery where this husband and wife are killed on their wedding night and it's a locked room. So there was a snuggle around the building they were in. There were no footprints, no way for someone to get in or out. So it's like, well, how did someone kill them when there was no way for someone to get in or out that room? It's set in Japan in 1937. It's the start of a really famous Japanese detective series. I'm excited to read more. Only two have currently been translated into English, but hopefully they will translate more.  Like one of the craziest solutions to a murder mystery I've ever read. I'm still, I still don't really understand it. Don't really understand how that happened. Um, that doesn't make no sense. But I think this is just like a very exciting book to get through. It's super short.  Next, I'm only going to mention this quickly because it is such a well-loved book. But a book I think would be perfect for this is Daisy Jones and The Six by Taylor Jenkins Reid. I'm not going to stop for long because we all know how amazing it is. But sometimes I feel like I don't speak about these books that are popular, but I love them. So like I should speak about them. I'm going to, well, I haven't got plans to, but I do want to reread this scene with the audiobook and the physical book together. If you don't know, don't know how you don't know. But this is about her. Daisy Jones and The Six is kind of banned in the 1970s and it's told in interview format. So it's literally just all the different characters narrating the story. And it's very interesting. I cried, I cried at a certain part of this like halfway through and it still gets me. But it's just a really interesting like character relationships. I love how it was told. I love books that are told in different ways.  Next, a controversial one. I know a lot of people like it, but I loved it. It's Captain House by Elizabeth Thomas. Number one, please judge me. Number two, please hate me because number three, I love it. What a perfect book in my opinion. Everyone else hates it, but I loved it. So this is about Inez. Goes to a school called Catherine House. You go for three years and you are not allowed any contact with the outside world during your time there. You're there for the whole three years.  And it's like a certain cultish vibe around the school. And it's kind of just this mystery. But for a lot of the book, Inez is kind of like, I ain't interested. I'm not bothering with that. That's not my problem. I'm not getting involved.   It's weird, like it's a hella weird book. You don't know what is going on. But after this, you know, it's very confusing. The whole book doesn't really make sense, but I loved it. I think it's such a captivating and grossing, claustrophobic read. I absolutely adored it.  You may hate it. Like, I think it's a book to go into with not much expectation because so many people just like this book. I don't understand it personally. I loved it. It was a five star. And then the last autumnal cafe kind of read that I have for you is Circus of Wonders by Elizabeth McNeil. This is, again, set like in Victorian London. I think that the Victorian era for me is like a very autumnal vibe. It's about this girl who has kind of like birthmarks or like markings on her skin. So she's been very much like isolated because of that. And she is kidnapped and put into the Circus of Wonders. And I thought this book was wonderful at exposing the harmful and negative and abusive side of these circuses. You know, we've seen films like The Greatest Showman, where like P.T. Barnum is idolized. That man, he wasn't a good man. And this book kind of shows the ugly side of those circuses and shows how abuse happened and these people were taken advantage of. It wasn't everything I wanted it to be. I think I gave it like a 3.5. But I think this kind of atmosphere, this kind of like circus, I could just imagine myself with my hot chocolate. Like I've said, sitting in that cafe, the vibes, the vibes are perfect. So there we have it. That is all the books I'd recommend for autumnal reads or like coffee, coffee cafe, coffee shop reads. Let me know if you've read any of these, what you thought of them. Also, let me know any recommendations you have for me. That would be perfect to go and read with my hot chocolate in a coaster. I would love to know. And if you've gone to the end of the video, comment the circus tent emoji down below and yeah, I will see you very soon in another video. Bye.