I wish babies could write songs that's why we don't have songs like diaper rash or mama give me that nip Hey, welcome back to our next video, it's I'm Corbin I'm Rick You can follow us on Instagram, Twitter, and our juicy content Follow us on Patreon, follow us on Twitter, Instagram, Twitter, and our YouTube channel Shame! Shame! Anyways, today we're reacting to a new trailer Yes, a new trailer Oh, a mafia time No, no, not that one This is called Sadak 2 Oh, yeah, yeah You've never seen Sadak 1 I believe that has Sanjay Dutt, who, once again, speedy recovery to you, sir But we have no idea what the first one's about Or anything about this really No, but I do remember because we obviously we follow her on Instagram You got to be careful so many times They actually put the trailers on their Frickin yeah, Instagram pages. So the minute I seize about So it looks like this one does have Sanjay Dutt Pooja Bhatt I don't know if she's related to Alia Or and then Alia and Directed by Mahesh Bhatt So it looks like might be a family affair Could be And I don't know if the Wait, yes, I think the bots were in some way in shape in the first one Obviously Alia wasn't because I think it was like early 90s. Okay. Um, but That's all I know. All right, and uh, here we go It's like a flashback Just me Yes We started in the 30's and now we are done with the 30's. Nowadays people make proposals on whatsapp and break them down. But Vishal also did the same thing to me. By the way, please take care of him. He is my son.  Oh! He is my son. Nice song. Oh! Ravi Ji, why are you doing all this? I am just a passenger. If you have anything on your head, I will show you what's on your head. You know why. Not going to get in. I can't wait for the comments. Yeah, not going to get into that. But obviously any time you do anything now with a star kid, you get hate. But anyways, not going to get into that. The trailer itself, I thought was really good. I did too. Did you not? It looked great on a bunch of levels. Sanjay looked spectacular. He looks fully invested. He looks strong. I was expecting to want to see it because of her. I actually want to see it more because of him. I still want to see it because of her. Man, he looks great in this. We still have yet to see a Sanjay Dutt film. I would so like to watch this one. So guys, let us know which of his films we should start with.   But he looks really, really good in this. One, I like his story as well. His wife, he looks like that one shot where I don't know if it was real tears or what they did to it. But it looked great. His performance looks really, really good. Let's take a turn there because at first I thought it was going to be like the deers and doggies. Kind of like sweet almost like family kind of thing. And then it like took a turn, big turn that I liked a lot. I thought the trailer was really good. Me too. Let us know if we need to see the first one and please base it on whether or not the movie is good. Not whether or not it's a victim of nepotism please. And then we can judge whether or not we should watch this one based on if it's a... There are some sequels that you didn't need to see the first one to see it. But there are some you absolutely do need to. I believe it was because it's... I don't know who... Is this her father? Right, I don't know. Because we saw him in Razzie, right? He was actually playing her father in Razzie, right? Was that the case? I think it was. Or was it her mom? I could be a thousand percent wrong. I thought it maybe it was him. Director? No, I don't know. Maybe he... It looks like there's three bots, so some of them have to have some relation of some kind. Oh, yes. Children. Mahesh bot. Children, Alia. Okay, cool. Yeah. Children also Pooja, and she's also in this one. Pooja bot, Alia bot, Rahul bot, and Shaheen bot are Mahesh's kids. Gotcha. So it's a family affair. Right. Another reason probably why I've got a bunch of down votes. 4.3 million. But we're not basing it off of that because we like Alia. And but the trailer itself, I would see this off of the trailer, but I also don't know if I need to see the first one. Exactly. So that's where you guys would have to come in. Yeah. It looked good to me. I will still obviously wait the juries out. You know, stuff could look good. Kalonk, remember that looks good.  Yeah.  So it's how it happened. And let us know. Would you please. But it is exciting seeing new trailers because obviously this year has been very different. Yeah. Because if you remember last year when obviously as the channel got going and we started to do this full time, there was a new trailer once or twice a week. Yeah. Of a big film, usually. Yeah. Well, when you consider the output of India, there's a couple of thousand films that come out every year. There's a few trailers that now we get a new one like one every two weeks. It reminds me of what American trailers were like when we started the channel. And we're like, we don't want anything to react to when it comes to movie trailers. I mean, thankfully it is loaded with artistry and all different kinds of things that we can watch. Yeah. But yes, COVID has really put a pinch on trailers and obviously theatrical releases that have been bumped off or turned into OTT platform. Yeah. And also let us know Sanjay Dutt. Dutt. Dutt. Dutt. Yeah. Dutt. I understand. Because we called him Dutt. We did. We called it like most. Yeah, we did. America is at a ronk. Sanjay Dutt. Sanjay Dutt. Sanjay Dutt. Sanjay Dutt. Do you know Sanjay Dutt? Yeah. He gave me some of them jalapenos in my case of Dylan. Let us know of his films what we should start. I believe he was an Agnepath, the Rithic one. I don't know if that's the best one to start with. I think he's like bald. I don't remember anyways. He just looked good in this. Yeah, he did. Let us know.


So good evening and welcome. So welcome to the 27th season of Norwich University's military writer symposium in Northfield, Vermont. It's an absolute pleasure to have each of you here. The symposium is a signature event of Norwich University's Peace and War Center, and it's the only event of its kind in an American university. It has brought some of the most prominent military intelligence, international affairs writers of our time to central Vermont. It's designed to educate, enlighten, challenge, and inspire. The symposium is designed to be relevant, and it tackles significant issues head on. So a brief history. In 1996, the symposium was conceived by co-founders W. E. B. Griffith and Carlo Deste with support of former North's president, Major General Russell Todd, US Army retired. Its inspiration was to bring influential writers to Norwich University. So in the past, we've focused on various subjects that range from cyber warfare, World War I, PTSD, weaponizations of water, the impact of World War I, Iraq, Afghanistan. This year, we focus on the Arctic, specifically the theme global conflict or cooperation evolving Arctic security. So to my left, you have some of the globe's leading experts on the subject, and we are honored and privileged to have them with you and to sit before you. So before I introduce the moderator, I would like to recognize and thank several people who make tonight in this event possible. When I call your name, please stand. Norwich President University, Mark Anarumo, who is in the back, sir, thank you so much for your support throughout this event. Provost Fitchu, our Colby Award winners, Dr. Steve Sodrigan and Mark Treanor. Please stand just to be recognized. Thank you very much. May have a seat. I'd also like to thank those alumni and supporters who are both on and off campus to make this event possible. We certainly appreciate your talents, your time, and your treasure. I'd also like to thank the Pritzker Military Museum and Library. Their partnership has made this event possible. We certainly appreciate their cooperation. They definitely enhance our educational opportunities, both for on campus and off campus activities. I would also like to thank those of you that are joining online. We certainly appreciate you being with us this evening.  Many of you in the future will be leading others in complex and challenging environments in places and situations right now you can't imagine. Some of them could be the Arctic. That's why you're here, and that's why we're here. The Arctic may be not on your radar at all. Maybe something you haven't ever thought about, but it's something you certainly would, and this is why we're having this event, and this is why we want you to be aware of what's going on to the North. The symposium, it's meant to make you aware and to be proactive, cognitively, of a very fluid situational environment. So a few housekeeping rules before we begin. One, please make sure your cell phones are off. There will be a time for Q&A session at the end, so as you're hearing the panel proceed, think of a question. When you see Mike's position to your left and to your right, you can go ahead and start lining up and have your questions answered. We are very fortunate to have our moderator today, Master Sergeant U.S. Army Retired Troy Buffard. Just a brief background on Professor Buffard. He holds a Master's of Arts in Arctic Policy, and is currently completing a Ph.D. program focused on Arctic Defense Strategy and International Law. He's the director of the University of Alaska Fairbanks Center for Arctic Security and Resilience. As a defense contractor, he is co-principal of investigators for the Department of Defense, Arctic Defense and Security Orientation Program with U.S. Northcom and ALCOM. He's a network coordinator for the North American and Arctic Defense and Security Network, NADSEN, and a non-resident research fellow with the Center for Defense and Security Studies in the University of Manitoba. He works with NATO, the Arctic Council, and is a sought-out speaker. He's also a frequent speaker on international Arctic events. He's well-published, and he regularly engages with the media. It's my honor and privilege to welcome Professor Troy Buffard to the stage. The floor is yours, sir. And thank you for being here. President Anand Moroma, provost, esteemed guests, and especially the Norwich military cadets who have chosen the difficult path to join the future leaders of the world's most powerful and dignified military in honorable service to this nation. It is a profound honor to be in front of such a distinguished company, including yesterday's proven veterans, today's expert warriors, and tomorrow's brilliant leaders. Thank you for sharing your time with us and allowing us the opportunity to offer thoughts and perspectives concerning today's topics, the Arctic and the World Competition. I'd like to introduce our panel to you. You have information in front of you in the program, but there's some stuff that's not there that's not in the program. You may not know it. It's not on the internet, but I have a meaningful connection with each of the panelists. They've helped me to improve and develop my writing skills. They've been inspiring to me for many, many years, not by design. It just happens that this panel has meaningful connection to me and I'd like to add a little bit more about their background. Dr. Whitney Lockenbauer, in the last couple of years, no one has supported and propelled my professional academic development of my friend and colleague, Dr. Whitney Lockenbauer. Whitney has shown me what it means to be an ambitious and contributing intellectual, a world-class thinker, a thoughtful mentor, an empowering enabler for individual potential. My relatively new journey into scholarship will forever benefit from his example. He's a machine. I've never seen anyone produce as much as he does. Whitney's inspiration and professional work influence is many, including many of the northern defense commands around the Circle Polar North. The Canadian rangers throughout his home country and the network of academics and executive practitioners on the continent. Simply put, Whitney is an absolute scholar, force of nature for the North American Arctic. Dr. James Kraska is one of the very first experts I ever heard of when I began my journey into the world of Arctic security long ago. I typed his name, I typed Arctic security in Google, and his name popped up first. And I was reminded of his book when I saw it today on the table. It was one of the first books I ever read on Arctic security. I got a sense of what it meant to be a true expert by reading his publications. His portfolio and activities are sophisticated and influential in all the right ways. His work inspired and frightened me at the same time because I started to learn what it meant to be a responsible and accountable for the information involving some of the most difficult issues, challenging the world. He has mentored and supported development on my own work, including maritime law, of which he is one of the world's foremost authorities. In addition, Dr. Kraska also offers substantial expertise concerning another leading adversarial challenge to the West, China. Sam, I've been extremely fortunate to know Sam for many years and have had the distinct pleasure of knowing his family over time, including his absolute superhuman wife, Kim. His two sons, Tulf and Coco, his mom, Jeannie, the very definition of a loving family, Matriarch. His father, Clarence, who once received a very prestigious award from President Obama for his unprecedented stewardship of the Yukon Flats. His sister, Stephanie, and his brothers, Dachoe and Edward. Sam has walked in several worlds. His identity is complex and impressive. He is a West Point graduate, an infantry officer, and a member of the US Special Forces. Like Lieutenant Colonel Morris also, he is a US Ranger. Sam is a Gwichian warrior and a longtime international delegate of the Arctic Council, the highest level Arctic international forum in the world. This evening you'll learn much from him. Additionally, I'd strongly encourage you to ask him about leadership and how his courage is the reason why the Dallas Mountain in North America was renamed to Denali. I'm able to be here today as an invited guest largely because of the support of this panel. Mentorship and friendship of James, Sam, and Whitney, I'll never forget. With that, I'd like to turn over to the panel. I'm starting with Sam for opening remarks, and then we'll roll into question and answer session. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. My name is Sam Alexander. I just came from Fairbanks, and even though I just got in last night and I woke up early this morning, I was really happy to come here because I looked around and I saw a lot of young warriors, and that's a good thing for me to see. I'll mention my serve in the military myself, and so I understand the experience that you're going through right now. It's a difficult experience, but it's a really good experience on the lens. So the conversation is about art, security, cooperation, and competition. And when I was invited to this, I thought to myself, well, what can I add to this conversation? And I thought, well, maybe we need to have a little bit of an indigenous perspective. And so it reminded me of a story that just occurred to me years ago. By the way, four or five years ago, I went out hunting with my father and we were out hunting for moose, and he was on the river cruising around and looking for food and snacks. And I saw this real fat black bear just roll back on the side of the river. And my old man pulled up his rifle and said, I'll even shoot for sure. It was delicious. Then he put his rifle down. I asked him, I said, how come you didn't shoot that black bear?   And I was like, what on earth is this? I'm a fortune cookie. Why is he telling me? Like, I can't figure it out. And then they turned the corner and there's a moose in the water. He always knows. How does he know?  Well, he knows because we have thousands of years on the land and he understands how the animals operate. He told me a story in the time I was filming when I was going to go care-running. And I said, we have to go care-running. We're care-running. He said, you know, one time I was on the moose hunting, it seemed like the animals would talk to each other. And I said, what do you mean? He said, well, I was, well, I saw the trail of the moose trail. I saw the tracks and started walking after it. And the next thing you know, all these animals that I kept with me hunting just popped up out of nowhere and I wanted to shoot them. So that's, you know, I saw them. I was like, I'm going to shoot those. And he said, well, I remembered. He said, I remembered that the animals talked to each other and they were throwing me off the trail because they knew I was hunting for moose and they were trying to protect that moose and they were getting me away. And so I ignored them and I continued, and I continued hunting and I shot those. And when I was carrying one of them, the caravan was driving along the lake and it starts moose tracks. I was like, I'll be there in a minute. Look at that, that's the moose tracks. And I followed the tracks in my eyes and I looked up and there's a moose standing right there. I was like, that's the moose. I go to the next lake, my brother-in-law was waiting and he said, hey, do you see the moose? I said, I saw that moose. He was standing right there. He said, let's go back and shoot it. And I said, hey, who says they're going to Caravan with me? I throw us off the terrain. I said, we're going to Caravan with them. Caravan. And then years later, as I was thinking about getting out of the military, I was driving down the road and I was driving to the national station in Fort Campbell. And I was, you know, I told my boss I was going to get out and all of a sudden all of these great jobs started popping up. And he was like, hey, you can go do this other job. You know, you don't have to go to Fort Port Louisiana. You can go over here. Both of these people with plain clothes and stuff. I said, that sounds pretty cool. I'd like to do that. And I said, wait a second. They're trying to throw me off the path. And I said, maybe this is what that old man was talking about this whole time. You know, he knows. You know, when I was going up, I didn't speak my name language. You know, did you use that language? I was just speaking, and so when I was going up, I really didn't appreciate the elders that we had in our communities because they just speak English very well. They spoke it at like 80 like that.  So they're very complicated topics and very complicated concepts that we wanted to talk about. We didn't talk about it because they just speak English a lot. That is super true. And so I never really appreciated their knowledge and how I learned the language. So I actually, I've gone back and listened to old recording of these people from 45 years ago. And here are the things that you have to think very, very complicated concepts that they talk about. And a lot of knowledge came from those stories, a lot of traditional knowledge. And so, you know, one of the things that we're told when you're in military is to know your operational environment. You've got to know your operational environment. That's a critical aspect when you're fighting or you're thinking about creating a plan and knowing your operational environment. In the Arctic, nobody knows the operational environment better than the indigenous people. Period. You will not know the operational environment better than the indigenous people we are. You just won't. And if you don't understand the language or take the time to understand the people, you'll never have access to the knowledge that's going to allow you to understand the environment. And that doesn't just apply to the indigenous people Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Scandinavia. It also applies to the indigenous people of Russia as well. There are indigenous people in Russia. If you look at them, they don't think they're Native American. Perhaps that's what they think. So, you know, one of the things we talk about within special forces is they say you work by with and through indigenous people. We're by with and through indigenous people. How are you going to be able to do that? Well, first of all, why do you do that? Because it leverages the available knowledge manpower. That's wonderful. But the other piece of it is in order to be able to do that, you have to familiarize yourself with the indigenous people. You can just go in there and think that the customs that we have and the communication that we use are going to resonate with those people that are going to be very important to your success. You know, this conference, the cooperation, the conflict, I will tell you this from an indigenous standpoint, there is a reason why there's really, really in Alaska, primarily you have only indigenous communities on the road system. You have a lot of people that are not Native and move to Alaska and they try to survive on their own. But they really don't. They can do it for a couple of years, but they don't last very long. That's the most fundamental thing about being successful in the art of this cooperation. Everybody needs to support everyone. That's it. My brother, who was hunting a couple years back, I won't mention which one. But he broke down. My father, my father was running out of gas, and he rolls. And I ran out of gas, broke down. And this guy and my brother didn't like to turn the corner. There he was. These guys don't like each other. They come to discuss what the guy sees them and he pulls over and kicks them up and they go back to town. Even though they don't like each other, that's how it is in the art of the only way to be successful up there is to cooperate. You probably heard the term here in a few minutes. Cooperate graduate. They believe in art. Cooperate graduate. And the art of just to survive. I'm not talking about going beyond that. But to survive, you have to cooperate. You have to understand your operational environment.  Right now you're in the best place you can possibly be to be prepared to prepare yourselves for the challenges here in the future when it comes to conflict. And whether it be conflict or cooperation in the art of it doesn't matter because all of you you know you hear from your instructor whatever I will tell you that you will be the leaders of this country in the future. That's going to happen whether you want to be a product you will be called upon. You will be called upon as soon as you are called upon and you will be called upon when you need to be prepared. So know your operational environment. Respect the indigenous knowledge that's out there and what we did to the best of your ability. Remember that our indigenous people especially our Native people of Alaska who want to support the seated success of our military out there and so make sure that we respect them and respect the knowledge that they have. Thank you. Can you remind us much of what Sam just mentioned is not new to us as the Arctic as this emerging operational contested environment to some extent that we'll talk about more tonight is not unlike what we went through in the desert and we went in assuming too much not knowing, not learning, not listening, not thinking and it cost us dearly. We're not on the Arctic and we're trying to adapt to this as quick as possible and it's a little different in the Arctic. In terms of this we're seeing not only the military but the when it comes to indigenous and non-indigenous working together. How do we even talk to each other if that's kind of an issue but we're trying to do that and this is part of the military, DOD defense agencies diplomats, researchers but we're learning that if we just listen a little harder they have ways of knowing. Indigenous people have ways of knowing that one way or another we're going to listen to, we're going to use it to get to success and until we do and we listen to that. Those ways of knowing we're not going to be successful. Luckily we kind of have a purpose of environment to do this in some time and I'm seeing good stuff happening here so thank you Sam. Dr. Kreister. Thank you. So the the Arctic region is a the Arctic region is a perfect example of cooperation and conflict and what I suggest is that you're going to face both of those sometimes in the same location. China is the greatest region threat for the United States. It's the only multi-dimensional threat which has economic power has military power as well as even political power. The Chinese governance model that's reflected in Confucian tradition and it's popular in Asia is championed by China and other countries for example China's claim of governance is a priority in its response to the COVID pandemic and how they've been able to deal effectively with that. So this is the multi-dimensional pacing threat for the United States and our friends and allies throughout the globe. The Arctic region is a perfect example of both cooperation and to be ready simultaneously for the potential for conflict. China regards itself so near Arctic state a near Arctic state and rather than being on the periphery of the Arctic region China has unapologetically inserted itself into the fabric of Arctic governance and Arctic power. China joined as an observer the Arctic Council in 2013 and it also issued a comprehensive foreign ministry white paper on Arctic policy in 2018. Some very interesting aspects to this paper. So China accepts that the Arctic region like all of the world is governed by the Charter of the United Nations also the Arctic is an ocean and so those aspects that are maritime are governed by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and there are some other international agreements that apply in the Arctic such as the Spitzbergen Treaty which allows some 40 states to have access to the Svalbard archipelago that is part of Norway but under this treaty 40 states including China can fish and hunt and access those islands for mineral rights, for mining and China wants to be part of this that it is. It also asserts a special position or a special right because it is a member of the permanent five of the UN Security Council one of only five thermonuclear powers that is states that have not just nuclear weapons but a hydrogen bomb. So China looks to these governance institutions mechanisms and says that it will comply with them with a good news story. China is interested in marine scientific research and freedom of navigation and overflight fishing and submarine cables pipelines access to minerals on the international seabed area China claims the rights to all of these under these treaties principally the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and in fact China does have a legitimate right as a member of these institutions to claim access to the Arctic region. China is interested in advancing science on climate change and in participating in regional governance and global governance that affects the Arctic and it also claims usage for the sea routes the names as the northwest passage through Canada our neighbor, our ally the northern sea route through Russia and a trans-polar route through the middle of the Arctic Ocean and China claims access to all of those as part of its right of freedom of navigation and overflight. China says that these routes are going to have a quote huge impact on the global economy and on the Chinese economy Chinese development as well as energy and it has incorporated these into its concept of a polar silk road part of the Belt Road initiative where China seeks to be the hub of global trade that connects the east, Korea, Japan, China and other countries to the west Europe and northern South America and so China claims that the Arctic Ocean is going to be part of this Belt Road initiative the greatest global infrastructure network in the history of mankind so China it has capital, technology it's got a huge market and it also claims quote knowledge and experience unique to the Arctic that it seeks to exploit and be respected for so they want to facilitate economic and social progress in the Arctic region in the Arctic states and they're already present there they're one of the major groups of delegations for green scientific research in the region and also in Svalbard archipelago and their goals are some of the goals that we share such as understanding and be more resilient and responsive to climate change to understand the science not just in the climate but also the biology and the geophysical environment China seeks to develop technology in particular green energy the same types of things that are attractive to us China also insists on its right to participate though in the governance in this region and we should be satisfied somewhat that China represents that it's committed to the frameworks that exist the UN Charter the Law of the Sea Convention and these other agreements in particular China is very active at the UN Specialized Agency for Maritime Matters the International Maritime Organization it's also active in the UN Framework on Climate Change it supports the Kyoto Protocol toward these goals China also joined a 2019 fishing moratorium on fishing in the Central Arctic Ocean beyond the waters of the coastal states China also seeks finally to work out new rules for marine genetic resources these are chemo-synthetic organisms that collect around seabed hydrothermal vents and they're the most unique life form on earth they don't require the sun's energy for life totally unknown until it's just a few decades ago and each of these communities on the deep seabed we believe are unique they have unique genetic properties and could be the next cure for cancer down there 5,000 meters below the surface of the wall China wants to participate in that and it insists on having a quote, fair and equitable sharing of the benefits so of course the west are the leaders and medical technology and China is working with other countries to insist on a share of that well it's a good news and a mixed story because China respects the Arctic Council and observes the agreements, the treaties the Arctic Council has negotiated even though China is only an observer it's not a participant there's agreements on search and rescue for aviation and surface ships there's an agreement on oil pollution and another on marine science China also has bilateral agreements with the United States with Iceland, Russia and there's a trilateral agreement with Korea and Japan and China for work in the Arctic so there is cooperation and there's also the prospect of potentially of conflict or at least cooperation with an eye on trust mechanisms and on the level of investment that the Arctic States United States and the other Arctic States can act with China because China's acceptance of the rules in the Arctic that are liberal and open and benefit states non-artic states such as China also apply in areas near China such as the South China Sea the East China Sea the mid-Pacific ocean the Indian Ocean the South Pacific where China has for example huge fishing fleets that are poaching fish off the coast of Ecuador in waters under Ecuador's jurisdiction so China has a global presence and it's great that China is at the table and participating in the mechanisms for Arctic governments but this is in contrast to China's lack of compliance non-compliance with these same agreements in areas that are closer to China and so this raises the prospect of of course a double standard and the likelihood of tension that's why as leaders you'll be confronted with not a binary choice of will there be conflict or will there be cooperation there will be cooperation and there also is always the possibility that you have to prepare for conflict thank you thanks to the organizers thanks to our university for being a wonderful host it is a great privilege to be able to to share some ideas with all of you and reminding all of you this event is for you so looking forward to our conversations Sam awesome for your insight games for yours and thanks George for hosting here I come to this topic from various perspectives and levels of analysis and I agree very much that there's also asking whether we should frame the Arctic or expect that the Arctic will become a zone of conflict or cooperation in a competitive world this is a false binary we have and we should expect as we just heard cooperation and competition in the Arctic within a world of similar dynamics so competition between Arctic states and non-Arctic states will continue but it does not mean that we are equally vulnerable across all domains, scales and levels or that conflict is inevitable there's also a tendency to treat what goes on at the international level as separate from what's happening between the Arctic as a region and the dramatic transformations in the environment the ways of life of these people who live there as Sam so eloquently shared with us this morning and tonight must be on our minds I've been very privileged over the last couple of decades to have traveled extensively in the Canadian Arctic, Canadian Rangers reserve members of our Canadian Armed Forces who serve in a non-kinetic role as the eyes, ears and voice of their whole communities in the military and then the military's voice in their communities that essential dialogue and connectedness that Sam amplified for us this morning I talked a bit about the benefits when we're thinking about the Arctic in terms of the threat environment to distinguish between threats through the Arctic in the Arctic or threats to the Arctic I think there's a conceptual danger treating all threats the same and not being attentive to what kind of threats we're talking about and what exactly our competitors are targeting in the Arctic so I want to take a few minutes here and just share with you what I see as six myths about Arctic defense and security to persist in 2020 first is that Arctic states sovereignty states like the United States is on thinning ice that somehow we're facing the risk of losing our Arctic territory or our sovereign rights to offshore resources because the price can change because the ice is melting this idea is implied in many of the pity sentences that we see starting Arctic strategies and policy statements that bundled together resurgent major power competition climate change uncertain boundaries increasingly accessible resources and shipping routes we just talked about emerging technologies all as drivers of rising Arctic defense concerns but conflict emanating from growing major power competition at the global scale that stills over into the Arctic is a very different set of causes I would argue than thinking about sovereignty threats in the Arctic as actually precipitating or causing conflict long standing well managed comparatively minor disputes or differences in legal positions in the Arctic don't keep me up at light I want to emphasize need to be more precise in identifying which type of threats in which domains or across which domains are hiking the risk of conflict and which aspects of these threats are specifically Arctic and which ones do we best manage at the global strategic level so I think that Arctic states like the United States needs to adopt more coherent or precise strategic messaging about the nature of the changing Arctic security environment the second myth as I see it is that climate change and access to Arctic resources and uncertainty over Arctic boundaries are driving the hard security agenda in the North American Arctic right now as we find ourselves immersed in this era of the emerging great power competition I'd suggest you its dynamics outside of the circumpolar Arctic that are really driving competition and heightening the risk of miscommunication or unintended escalation so I see a strong analytic value in distinguishing between threats that pass through or over the Arctic we can think like bombers and missiles or glide vehicles that pass through Arctic airspace or aerospace or the space above the Arctic outer space above the Arctic distinguishing between these threats that are from or threats to the Arctic that actually arise from Arctic regional dynamics so I'd suggest that the dominant variables in play right now are grand strategic rather than regional Arctic ones and a key one is technology in the form of faster more maneuverable delivery systems as well as vulnerabilities to be faced in the cyber and influence domains something that Norwich University specialized in studying hyperglide weapons the latest of cruise missiles are not affected by changing Arctic environmental conditions Nor is the ability for adversaries to try and polarize debate using social media or cyberspace or their state controlled news media now I've been talking with the Arctic in this sweeping way like our map shows it's the single space which is ironic because the third man I want to share with you is the idea that the Arctic is a single geostrategic theater I'd highlight there are very significant differences between Eurasian Arctic, the European Arctic the North American Arctic there are obviously vast distances between them and certain domains where this applies and this makes it essential that you not get caught up in generalizing about Arctic threats as if those in one part of the Arctic are the same all across the Arctic inherently the immediate threats posed by the Russian army to its European Arctic neighbors which shared land borders for example are different than those posed to certainly Canada I would argue even the United States we also need to think about the bearing strength right between Alaska and Russia you see on the left hand side of your map or the Greenland Iceland, United Kingdom Norway got it you think of Europe and that access point to the North Atlantic I think we need to think about these as access routes to the North Pacific to the North Atlantic without getting too fixated on them as Arctic spaces and what they offer as ways out of dilemmas for countries like China who could find themselves constrained or contained in Asia in conflicts going on say with India where this would offer them a way out so it's important that we not look at things only through a certain polar lens and around the North Pole lens but also think global the fourth bit is that the Russians have aspirations to conquer Arctic territory from rival states that they're preponderance of ice breakers they're expanding footprint of Arctic bases and units and their self perception as the foremost Arctic nation means that they think they can win in an Arctic conflict no way they want to flex their muscles in the Arctic for strategic effect sure the Kremlin knows it cannot win in an Arctic war especially in the United States Russian officials often admit correct me if I'm wrong that the US and NATO are militarily superior they can't win in a conventional period of your conflict so I think you need to really focus on hybrid below the threshold and geopolitical spaces first and foremost when we're thinking about Russia as an Arctic competitor the fifth myth and this is building up what you said James quickly is a competitor in the Arctic it's a competitor to the Arctic states in some respects but it is not up here in the Arctic and serious analysts in China recognize this as does the Arctic policy release in 2018 so yes China promotes itself as a near Arctic state but this invented status doesn't give it any priority status over any other non Arctic state actor in terms of international rights or access so I think we must be careful not to dedicate disproportionate attention to China's potential aspirations and say the maritime domain if this means redirecting resources away from areas where we are certain that China has core strategic interests, capabilities and revisionist intentions read South China Sea don't let Arctic moose distract us from the caribou that China is actually seeking and last is the myth that the Arctic is somehow exceptional in the world of international affairs and if we orientate several forms the classic one is that the Arctic is uniquely peaceful and cooperative and should include be kept separate from broader interest national dynamics I think quite frankly this is naive in a globalized world I think that this ideal of a purely exceptional cooperative Arctic space is what is in danger much more than actual peace and stability in the circumpolar world another way of thinking about this is that the Arctic is somehow exceptionally vulnerable or becoming exceptionally unstable or explosive this kind of thinking tends to overlook or forget the broader grand strategic implications that such moose in the Arctic would have for all of the actors and protagonists involved so climate change is amplifying certain types of Arctic threats in certain domains and it's certainly changing the face of the region for its inhabitants and for the international community but it doesn't mean that heightened international interest and even competition is inherently going to negate cooperation or bring about conflict some of these ideas might be provocative but I look forward to the discussion and especially hearing your questions and please feel free to challenge me on any of your questions a little bit to this, but James and Whitney just spoke about what it has to do with you a lot of this stuff sounds like the purview of the state department for an affair of diplomats that do the DOD I'll tell you one thing freedom of navigation that is something that is a shared responsibility with the DOD and the state department other things you can expect major issues in competitive environments for DOD to continue to maintain a supporting role we do this constantly sometimes largely not visible to the public but you can expect this to happen but you can expect in the future especially where we're going up against growing powers like China and Russia who have global ambitions is for them to increasingly frustrate us with international norms, laws, stuff that Dr. Krastev talked about push those to the edge not cross the line necessarily but interpret and implement and use those to their advantage in a way we've never seen before to push us into those zones of miscalculation for elevating escalating issues this is what you can expect in the future more sophisticated use of this is happening in the South China Sea and in the end what our adversaries are looking for us to do is to make a mistake if we make that first step that first mistake that justifies what could be and this is kind of the world we're seeing develop in front of us that you're going to inherit as leaders in supporting roles you might find yourself someplace in there including the Arctic where you get pulled very rapidly into a mistake that's what our adversaries like so the more we learn the more we can be prepared and more we can be part of the solution so before we get into questions from the audience I've got one question for Pal directly for the cadets from a military perspective James Sam what do you know now that you wish you had known when you came in the military and how would you apply that and Whitney from an academic perspective we're all continuing students for life what do you know now that you wish you had known when you began and how would you apply that because there's two things I don't think you can hear me very well I had no idea how important being able to write well actually mattered that sounds kind of crazy but it's true I'll be honest I grew up in a small village and like I said a lot of people who speak English in their first language are so what we call village English you probably hear a little bit of an accent and so I didn't really take writing seriously and tell I actually didn't take writing seriously and tell I wanted special forces and I'll tell you the most important thing that I did pretty much the entire time that I was a special forces team but I was on an ODA an operational attachment also for 37 months and in that time I did two tours with that ODA additional counter-narconics tour once close country and the most important thing I did was write and it's kind of crazy you're like whatever man it was important this is what happened to me I had a good friend he was company commander infantry unit in Iraq he said I got this problem these guys I worked with they're called the sons of Iraq and I didn't pay it's been three months since they got paid they're about to all quit and it's going to be a massive problem within my sector because they're not going to provide security anymore and I said okay that's interesting I'll send one of my guys over so I sent one of my NCO's over then when he went out and came back and I said hey Phil what did you see and he said anyways and he said he said they're not getting paid they're probably going to quit soon and this is what's going to happen if they quit and I said okay and so I wrote it up in a report and I said hey you know it's an email it's from my buddy and it's a it's a forwarded email to me and so I had to go all the way to the bottom right and it was an email that his battalion commander sent and I was like oh and then I go to the next one from brigade commander and I go to the next one and it's from the division commander and then underneath where the division commander was in charge of thousands and thousands of soldiers and I sit around and then it said underneath it to the brigade commanders all full bird colonels said you have 24 hours to fix this and then I went down to the battalion commander and he says you've got less than 24 hours to fix this and then it went all those company commanders and they said you better fix this now and guess what that's what they did and all those guys got paid is because I wrote that one report and I wrote it well and it really hit me that everybody was they actually were reading when I was writing and that it mattered and that I needed to be able to clearly communicate what the problem was and how to solve that problem at least provide recommendations and so that was that was a pretty massive thing for me to take away and I I don't think I quite fully appreciated that when I was a cadet I'll be honest the other thing I didn't appreciate as a cadet was that I would be kind of in the position that I am now where we're here we are we're talking about international affairs so when I was a student actually it was almost 20 years ago 20 years ago this month I went to something called the student council on U.S. affairs it was called the SCUSA it was a conference that they had when I was a cadet and there was like I can't remember the topic this was in 2001 so this was right after September 11th we were going to talk about this and so there we were a group of students we were like what do we know we're going to write out some things and put out this white paper and put out our ideas of how we would solve these problems what I didn't realize is all the people that were involved in that conference years later would still be involved and then the next thing you know you're sitting across from the secretary of state talking about the j-tree that's what happened to me I looked across the table there was John Carrick I looked across the table there was Rex Tillerson that's going to happen you're going to be in that position so your time here as cadets there are a lot of great opportunities that are being presented in front of you and you have a lot of things that you have to balance I understand that you're busy people you probably get like 5 hours sleep a night if you're lucky I understand that but when the opportunity comes to be involved in especially these things where you're talking about international affairs and you're trying to come up with solutions get involved you might not have the right solution that doesn't matter you need to understand the process be a part of the process and then when it's your time because you will get tapped at some point you will be ready to be a part of that process so we didn't coordinate at all these comments but one of the thoughts I have three things the first is when I was an undergraduate I thought that English writing English was just something that sort of came along and so I wanted to do another major international relations and I thought well I'll be able to sort of pick it up so I've written I don't know probably 75 articles and 10 or so books I just cleared my last page proofs for a book and I'm still looking at English these are proofs that I've already read and then sent to the publisher and they come back to me for a final look and I'm still looking up and improving and perfecting the English and I probably should have made fun of the English majors like I did and so you don't have to be an English major but you have to be a part time you have to everything that you write you have to perfect it now and learn the English or you will be looking it up when you're 50 and so this is one thing get the elements of style is insert on writing well a little brown handbook some of you may be familiar with you may have had it in high school or you may have it in college get some of these resources and keep them on your desk and look things up so that's the first the second is I would recommend teaching enter into whatever your career path is you will quickly begin to acquire special knowledge you think now that you won't but you already know some things many people don't for example there are many people that have no military experience you already have some so we've already started to develop skills it could be outdoor skills survival skills engineering skills but the second thing is to begin to teach as soon as you begin your career if you're in the military and you get a sign somewhere call up the local community college and say hey I'm pretty good at whatever it is can I teach a class and as you progress you can end up teaching at anywhere and you never really master something until you've taught you never really master it until you've taught so that's the next thing and the third thing is I did the teaching relatively okay year or two out of law school I started to teach but one thing that I didn't do the third thing that I didn't do is I didn't write and publish because who be it for me two years three years out of law school five years out of law school probably everybody thinks you know maybe what I think is obvious but that's also not the case you can shape and influence a broad discussion and engage in the public dialogue by writing and publishing it could be for Marine Corps Gazette it could be submitting something to as an opinion editorial to a newspaper Wall Street Journal Washington Post where it could be a state newspaper or you could write an article or even think about seriously beginning to write a longer monograph but I would recommend that you think about and engage in the public square by writing and publishing and don't don't stop yourself if you have inclination now of course it takes time if you're watching friends on Netflix or whatever you're going to have to do that on the weekends but nonetheless I think that you'll find it satisfying and it will it will build on itself people will contact you you write one article on something or two articles on something and suddenly you're perceived as an expert and you'll start to get inquiries media will start to call you so that would be my third recommendation at the risk of echoing whatever they may have said or give some other observations maybe a bit of a different tact first would be when I look back I wish I wouldn't have felt as shy as I did or reserved as I did when time came to ask questions second guessing looking around a room saying oh my gosh everybody's probably smarter than me I don't want to ask a question that's going to make me look less intelligent than everybody maybe I'll just sit here and as I still feel that way often I'm the first to admit that I feel intimidated at times being on this panel like butterflies in my stomach before getting up before all of you that's all healthy and natural but I think what I've learned is embrace that see that it means I care but put yourself out there ask the questions I know it's almost so simple for me to say but if you have that question chances are other people do as well and you'll be the voice for some of those people who are too shy to ask it along with that honest questions questions that you don't already know the answer to which is a form of grandstanding I'll say especially as Sam described if you're going to go to communities and you're going to be and I'm going to come back to relationships in a second building relationships to people you look and meet with a Gwichian elder they've had a lifetime of learning how to fair it out and be able to see through somebody who's a fraud and if you go in with an honest question and see your heart through your eyes if you're asking an honest question you can make a lot of faux pas and small slips and things that may not be culturally you don't want to do anything egregiously culturally inappropriate but it will overlook because you're being honest and you're being humble and if anything if I could go back to some of my first experiences I thought I had credentials that I've come to learn over time even now declared in some southern circles as an expert I know very well when I enter into rooms in the north I am the least knowledgeable person in the room embrace it own it and my second point is be curiosity driven one of the best piece of advice I got from my doctoral supervisor was he said Whitney if you're interested in a topic work on it because if you're interested other people are going to be interested or you'll make them interested in it if you're working pick papers for each of your courses or assignments that you're excited about it will help to get you through it convert that I will try to woo I got it done and to hopefully enjoy the experience at the same time you've got a wonderful environment here at Norwich University to embrace being multi disciplinary and interdisciplinary I was trained as a historian I love the tools that I built as a historian but collaborating with colleagues in the English department has been eye opening legal colleagues like James has changed the way I refine my language and I have to think about the implications of maybe what I'm suggesting working with geographers or anthropologists and dare I say even more exciting for those of you in the social sciences and humanities working with your colleagues and having conversations with your colleagues in the physical sciences in engineering I've had a wonderful opportunity because of the wonderful spirit here and culture that you have here at Norwich University embracing if anything has transformed my approach to scholarship and where I fit within these conversations it's realizing I don't need to know at all quite the opposite I can relish and wrap my arms around but I don't know and know that there are really smart people who I can have conversations with and then when it comes time to publish sometimes it'll be co-published and we'll have already done that first round of peer review which some of you may have heard about the last and I think Troy your opening comments exemplified this much better than I will so I won't go into details is the centrality of relationships it's the relationships you're building with one another that you're going to carry throughout your lives it's those relationships that create opportunities open doors sees them where it's appropriate where it's safe to do so if you have strong relationships lots of strong arms around you you can act on that motto I will try try that's what's being asked you don't always have to have it work out those of you in the sciences know an experimentation an experiment that doesn't yield an expected result can sometimes be just as important as the experiment that does if you've got relationships in place you'll have opportunities you'll also have strong arms to catch you to orient you to point you in directions when you're taking those measured risks and being able to act upon that curiosity ask those questions and embrace these wonderful different forms of knowledge and ways of knowing which I think this panel hopefully is signaling and I'm learning from so thanks some good advice if you're taking notes alright let's ask some questions please line up Russia Arctic writing leadership now's your time good evening gentlemen I'm John Piper I'm a mechanical engineering major I wanted to ask questions about the possible industrialization and militarization of the Arctic Circle like you said the northern routes like the northwest passage are opening up more to regular nations without icebreakers or submarines to go through and the maritime law says that all the countries with the maritime force can go through them just like Dr. Lachenbauer said but we saw in World War II and the Cold War industrialization and militarization in hubs like Murmansk in Central and the Vestfjords and across the Bering Strait but what would be the impact today with climate change and everything happening you see hubs going up in northern Alaska or Norway, Sweden or the Scandinavian countries and how would that impact the native people like the Sami and the Americans I feel like you were going to be do you want me to go I'll talk a little piece about industrialization and the impact so you know throughout the circumpolar north industrialization and resource extraction has been problematic for indigenous people you know if you take a look at Norway, Sweden you have mining interests that have pushed the indigenous Sami people off their grazing lands if you were to go to Russia or the Nenet do their ranger herding the Yamal Peninsula pushed them off their prime ranger herding lands and recently there was a spillage of like 20,000 gallons of diesel one of the major rivers in Russia and so the impact obviously there on the native people so yeah you're right every time we have these the Arctic is a very sensitive environment it's very difficult to clean up you know I always ask people would you rather do a clean up spill of oil of an oil tanker in the Gulf of Mexico or up in the Chakchi they're like I only go to the Gulf of Mexico I drink Mai Tai while I'm watching this thing it cleaned up and I want to freeze while I'm doing it and so it's obviously very difficult to do that and so you know it's a complex question I would say that over time this is just my opinion but it does appear that there is a kind of a there are limitations in terms of what resource extraction will occur within at least the North American Arctic so in the US and Canada and so you see less development occurring within those territories or within that land within the Russian Arctic I think is where we probably have more concern for industrialization the impact on the indigenous people there the Russians do recognize environmental issues are issues for them as well and so they're not as haphazard as they might have been in the past but I would I'd like to hear what you guys think Thanks for the question I'll talk about just the governance piece of that if I could we are we live in a globalized world but in a major way that that will unwind and the Arctic region is part of the globe and it likely will have more and more relationship with global trade and what I would suggest is that we work hard in a multilateral way to manage that trade and freedom of navigation and overflight international institutions we've already done that to some fair extent through the IMO with the marine pollution convention which has an annex on CO2 emissions from ships in January of 2020 they were tightened once again to reduce the carbon footprint of merchant vessels so about 90% of everything that we that we trade in other countries goes by sea 90% of international trade and these Arctic passages may indeed be avenues for some of that I don't think that you can stop that because we as I mentioned this afternoon we live in a world in which the United States and Canada is in an island a continental sized island and we want and cherish our connections with the outside world and therefore we have to recognize that other countries also have those rights but we can develop rules and continue to strengthen rules such as Marple NX6 there's also the IMO polar code which makes vessels compliant with areas that are ice infested or that are in the Arctic or Antarctic and global trade by sea constitutes about 2.5 or 2.7% of carbon emissions globally and that's for 90% international trade not too bad it's about the same for international air travel also about 2.5% so I think we want to drive that down and reduce the impacts while preserving the trading relationships thanks thank you why is China more willing to follow guidelines from the UNCOOS in the Arctic whereas in the South China Sea they tend to push that boundary especially with their 9-dash line very easy and thanks it's a great question the reason why is because in the Arctic region China is a user of waters that are under other countries jurisdiction whereas in the South China Sea China is a coastal state and it's asserting jurisdiction over those waters and then not recognizing the same rights that it takes advantage of in the Arctic ocean that's the central dilemma and of course we have to hold China account to account for that as well as other countries that have unlawful claims that would impede legitimate commerce or even peaceful military activities if I can just do a quick hot follow up and just playing off your question one of the potential futures I see is exceeding China behaving as an exemplar in the Arctic because again core strategic interests are involved as a user state where it could point the world to say why are you complaining about our behavior look at how conforming we are with a lot of your governance measures or how we are in compliance with international law why are you criticizing me why are you criticizing me so I think we also tend to drift as strategic analysts towards illegitimacy unfavorable patterns of activity when we might expect China as a legitimizing actor in the Arctic trying to also use the Arctic as a vector to legitimize its place in the world and hope that it deflects attention from unfavorable things that it would like us not to look at elsewhere this is a perfect example of how you have to pay attention to the rest of the world in many ways in order to understand the Arctic we can't just study the Arctic so the South China Sea is providing this awesome example and the extent it does apply to the Arctic we need to know sir good evening gentlemen, good day James Vaughan I just wanted to ask about like we've seen the like how how much traffic and whatnot in commerce goes through like the Atlantic and the Pacific and y'all were talking earlier about how the Arctic is just like starting to become more of like an avenue that we can explore do you think that the importance of us focusing on the Arctic now is just because it's opening up as a new frontier or if there's like another reason for why we should be focusing in on the Arctic now so you want to talk a little bit about shipping well I would say I'll throw out a thought about that I'll throw out this thought to you, to all of you to consider who is the Arctic most important to what country is the Arctic most important to financially economically who is going to be going to be impacted the most in in the opening of any shipping lanes within the Arctic and I would argue that's Russia and so the Russians all have the greatest exposure within the Arctic when it comes to you know the potential for for a downside really you know if something were to happen in Alaska you know Alaska you know we I love my state but we don't really contribute that much sometimes to the U.S. other than being an Arctic you know place so if something were to happen to the economy of Alaska you know it's not going to be a big blow to the United States you know if something were to happen probably like the NWT or YT in Canada they'll be like well you know the Quebec qual probably like oh whatever but if something were to happen you know the Russian Arctic in terms of their ability to really get resources out of there as a whole other story and that's something I would pay attention to so sir off of that when we were just talking about how China is kind of flexing its muscles in the south trying to see y'all were just talking towards the very beginning when you first started talking that Russia is starting to do the same thing how would the U.S. respond to that in terms of the like Arctic law and what not well we've responded to both Russia and China the exact same way by asserting our lawful rights to navigate and fly anywhere that international law allows and if I could just add a useful idiom for China is China's view is in the South China Sea with its neighbors is that what's China's is theirs what's theirs is theirs and what's yours is also theirs but they're willing to share yours and that applies as well to the Arctic Ocean so they would say China would say that what's theirs is theirs in the South China Sea in the East China Sea and China is also asserting a right to share in the Arctic and not just governance but the resources and it's part of this Central Arctic Ocean fisheries agreement that has a moratorium for 15 years but China is very patient 15 years from now there could be fleets of hundreds of Chinese fishing vessels in the middle of the Arctic Ocean this goes to this idiom what's mine is mine and what's yours is mine also but I'm willing to share yours I think just a quick add on to it when we think about fishing or shipping pardon me as well when you ask questions when you're reading the literature when it's vague on time horizons there's a lot of literature that's out there that looks like it's scientifically based that I would argue is not and I'm guilty of this too in some of my own writings I'm opaque in what I am projecting when this is going to happen and also ask questions what type of shipping traffic is changing in the Canadian Arctic I can say we've seen dramatic increases in its destination shipping arriving at communities for resupply or arriving at mining sites we're not seeing dramatic increases in transit shipping going through what the United States considers an international straight so again wonderful opportunities for you as critical thinkers to go in and ask the questions of do I need more information to assess when we should be anticipating this changing and how much lead time would the United States need if it required say infrastructure development on the north slope of Alaska developing capacity at the community level to be able to have locally based capabilities to respond to some of this it's the lead times I think we sometimes believe our own hype as Arctic experts thinking that this shipping traffic is imminent and I always say read Billy Mitchell in the 1920s Bill Homer Stephenson in the 1920s and 30s talking about the Arctic as a new Mediterranean that was opening up to the world 100 years ago and I don't think it's going to be 100 years before we see some pretty dramatic changes I'm just not sure if we're going to see them in the next 5 years as much as Putin and the Kremlin would love to see that northern sea would be picked up and be a major artery which of course the Soviet Union and the Russians have been trying to build for a century I'm still skeptical about how quickly this is going to happen and whether it's still going to take the form that we might be anticipating looking through a 2021 lens we cannot bring up Billy Mitchell without the actual most important quote Alaska is the most strategic place in the world different class though thank you gentlemen keep asking those tough questions good evening gentlemen, Cadet Jack Brennan so Dr. Kraskal was talking about the China how we should embrace its interest its genuine interest in the Arctic and in your talk earlier today you were also discussing how they've been disregarding the United Nations Conventional Odyssey do you think it would be possible and if so do you think it would be wise to use our position in the Arctic Council as leverage against China to help fix some of those problems in the Pacific not specifically I don't know if I would do that I can't think right now of a scenario but your idea I do endorse which is during the cold if I could do an analogy very quickly during the Cold War with the Soviet Union the United States and the West linked issues that were unrelated to Soviet misconduct for example we linked the liberal emigration of Soviet Jews into the West to whether the United States would negotiate a nuclear arms control totally different issues but this is sort of what you're suggesting and I do support rather than just reacting to the latest Chinese misstep in the South China Sea but linking Chinese and Russian misconduct to other areas of the relationship it could be trade it could be student visas it could be some other element of the relationship and it might be opposition to observer status in the Arctic Council although that ship has already sailed but it could be opposing things more vocally China's role for example in the World Health Organization which I don't think anybody now truly appreciates like we might have two or three years ago so I think that there's linkages and we should think creatively about how to impose costs in other areas other than simply doing what we still will continue to do the prior question which is freedom of navigation and overflight operations and exercises we'll still do those but those are necessary but they're not sufficient so good idea on the linkage it's exactly what I'm thinking I think you just signed up for your next article whatever class, good question Cadet Coppolino I have a question regarding Russia's expansion of their northern fleet and several men's as well as some of their northern Arctic air bases in regards to the U.S.'s like military intervention in the Arctic should the U.S. be concerned and if so how will we counter that military expansion I think it's a great question I may actually ask our moderator if he wants to comment on it after I make a few quick comments I think it's definitely a source of concern I think it's making sure we're situating the concern at the right level I think a lot of the lion's share of those investments are big D deterrence global deterrence as Professor Buffard shared in his presentation this morning it's situating it in that national defense envelope we must be monitoring what's going on and then not only preparing as when identifying any threat with what capabilities are there but always being nimble in reading and questioning our assumptions about intentions Russia will continue to project that this is legitimate functions as a sovereign state to deter adversaries and to defend their sovereign territory defensive messaging we all know dual use capabilities like we're seeing being developed in terms of port facilities airfields now extending out along the Siberian coast in places that we haven't seen them for a long time or haven't seen them before are all things that could also be turned offensively and within Russian doctrine and Troil de Fertille offense and defense are not categories the way we think about them in the west we need to be attuned to this and constantly re-appraising what this means but again not necessarily thinking that investments in the northern fleet means that we're anticipating Russian aggression in the Arctic Ocean I'm looking to the North Atlantic I'm looking to the North Atlantic and reimagining what can we borrow from our thinking during the Cold War about the Greenland Iceland UK Norway gap and what parts of that are still applicable and appropriate in the 2020s and will be appropriate as we might imagine the 2030s and 2040s but what things do we need to rethink and the creativity that we need as a whole of society effort as a broad defense team that includes academics like all of you we need fresh thinking about this to make sure we don't return to the conventional thinking that was established before just because it's easy to refresh it off blow the dust off it blow those plants we need to get ahead of our adversaries we need to get ahead of their thinking we need to get inside of the decision making loops to make sure that we can do what we've always done best situate it at the right level and make sure we're not baited into engaging with them in terrain of their choosing excellent thank you well said we're going to have to answer good job we have a couple more minutes so let's get through some questions a little bit more rapidly and then we'll do a hard stop here that we'll be glad to sit around and continue to talk after we have to stop for a moment so my question is what do you think is the most important language to learn today and why I say Chinese English I think you should learn a good chin I think English is the global language so we already have an advantage but you can perfect you can perfect your craft as I mentioned and I think I'm just going to turn the question around and say what we need is people are interested in not only perfecting their English but also learning other languages that it's valuable and I think sometimes because English is the lingua franca that's such a weird turn of phrase but because it is the global language in so many ways we sometimes can get apathetic with the need to go through that exercise I think it's good for our brains to be thinking and imagining thinking in other languages you can speak to that directly but it's even the approach of Chinese it may be Italian but learn something because within this broader structure of relationships you'll find a place to be able to exercise it and that will be value added to your country and to our allied efforts and I would say this and I wasn't joking when I said learn a good chin the reason why I say that is because it's a polysynthetic language Chinese in English are actually very simple languages they're called analytic languages so you have free morpheme abstract sentences out of these individual words a polysynthetic language has 20 places with different combinations eventually that you can make into an infinite amount of words and so it's significantly harder than Chinese, Arabic, Russian or any of those other languages so learn a polysynthetic language if you really want to challenge yourself last question ma'am another quick bite at the apple I would also suggest that if you're interested the reason I said English is because everybody in the world speaks English there is one important country that really has a dearth of English speaking ability and that's Japan our most critical ally and it's very difficult to engage with Japanese officials and scholars because they have such limited English ability they're just not speaking English like they are in China and even Vietnam so that's another one to consider with the Japanese last question quickly good evening gentlemen cadet JC Harlow so you talk a lot about improving our English and getting better with writing I know with the extent of my major exercise science I don't write very much but I do have an enjoyment with journaling but that's really all I do getting better with writing and things to write about or how to kind of start off especially considering like a lot of us maybe aren't geared towards English majors or swap majors or anything like that thanks it's a wonderful question and I think the fact that you're describing journaling is that's it, write doesn't matter what you're writing, write get into a habit of writing every day none of us is a natural born writer some of us may be more naturally inclined writing with some flair and artistry it's work, it's a craft that you have to hone it's writing, it's learning to revise that dreaded editing when we finish pull out all nighter and get the paper done and we don't want to look at it again if you can find that last hour of energy to do the read through and the edit, that's all part of writing find time to do it the topic doesn't matter as much as people think it's the practice and the routine and getting your brain trained to putting what used to be pen to paper I still take notes because I like that exercise tapping away on the keyboard find a way to do it and you're doing it in your reports when you're doing lab reports and other things use those as opportunities and just seize them whenever you can so that concludes this part of it we have to end at this point please stand by for your questions I hope to continue here in a minute ladies and gentlemen please round of applause for this awesome panel please come up for your questions I think the event is concluded we'd like to still talk to you we've got some time, whatever your schedule thank you for your time and it's been a very very long day we're around tomorrow also please come talk to us, we love it thank you


Going on everybody. This is 1920 revolution dude, dude, dude Sorry four box half case break number two sold out in Jasper's case breaks calm We're gonna roll the dice see how many times are going on the randomizers Five times. So we're gonna randomize the list of names a list of combo teams and we will see who you get one two three four and five Collin down to Matthew and Now for the list of teams one two three Four and remember if you're gonna trade you had to trade the whole block cells Celtics down to the pelicans Collin with Celtics T wolves maves John with the Bulls Warriors Kings Nick heat suns bucks Collin wizard sixers Blazers Peter Grizzly's Nets Nuggets Lakers Rockets Pacers for Todd Zach with the calves pistons jazz Matthew with the Hawks Hornets Raptors Rick with the Knicks Spurs Clippers Matthew with the Pelicans Thunder Magic, so I'm gonna Open the trade window see if anyone wants to trade late at night All right trading window is closed Good luck, I'll see how many sold for number 75 But it might have oversold you know I'm saying we sold 10 and 74 already and then we sold Yeah, so I'll go through it once I get home after these couple breaks and then Tomorrow I'll post the fresh Dear and Fox we're gonna jail in the well Astro Russell Westbrook ashram there's a LeBron base Tyler hero 61 out of 100 nice one for the heat right there So how many do I have to post in break 70? 74 then how many's left at 74 do you if you know? That is Chicago. No, that's my heat. That's Nick. Okay. There's a shockwave James Hardin The mark is Aldridge groove Auto Carson Edwards nice one for the Celtics Boston Celtics is Colin. So that means we sold If there's four left we sold 26 spots in 74 and 75 Yanis nice one there It's Goran Drogic and there's Derek white Fractal all right nice auto in box one now on a box two Okay, so as long as no one else buys spots and in 75 by the time I end this I won't be good and then post a fresh 76. There's Lucas Samanich Astro, Jonas Valenchunis astro. There's Clint Capella fractal Rui Hachimora nice groove rookie for the Wizards Like we got another auto coming up. It is the Andre Hunter for the Atlanta Hawks Atlanta going out to the Hawks Hornets Raptors Matthew S There's a number to 100 Victor Oladipo for the Pacers Two more boxes to go Coming up this after this is optic choice and that'll be the last break of the night unless We fill up definitive baseball number nine three teams left Last box of definitive tomorrow. We'll have transcendent baseball. We'll have some other new stuff another basketball mixer posted to the website We'll have some fun breaks on there We do have more NT, but I think I'll probably wait until transcendent sold out So probably it's Saturday Sunday Logan a little inside scoop for you Insider sources There's a job rookie revolution There's a LeBron base There's another Rui fractal Steven Adams groove There's a RJ Barrett shockwave Montrez Herald. We have another auto It is Jared Culver for the T-Wolves 7 of 25 Minnesota Timberwolves that one's going out to the Celtics T-Wolves Maverick spot for their second auto. There's an astro Keldon Johnson And nice Anthony Davis 27 out of 50 supernova Nice one there for the Lakers. That's going out to Todd Reardon Yeah, we do have a last-dance mixer. I think we'll have I think we have a Jordan rookie Um For Sunday That'd be exciting Don't have a Mitchell All right last box Okay, so you turn 75 in the 74 slash 75 with four spots left. Okay, I gotta post 76 because that'll sell out Before I even wake up so I'm gonna remember to post 76. Okay, cool. Thanks Joe Sorry to Bother you on that I know why it said sold out it definitely said sold out I had I have proof if you rewind the recording The live stream and I definitely didn't just put tense. I didn't I don't think I put ten spots in there That's how I think it was a number block, I don't know Possibly Teddy might have been distracting me No Zion yet in this one there is a James Hardin 149 R. J. Barrett There's in the seer little fractal Kauai Leonard for the Clippers fractal Anthony Davis shockwave and That is at Yanis Astro here at the end. No numbered card in that one There's usually at least a numbered card per box See if I missed it Didn't see it though But we did get three autos in that Little four box break. So it looks like the galactic will be in the next inner Which is unless I'm past the galactic Which is in the store now. I didn't see it though, but all cards do ship in this so We'll get that done. Thanks everybody. That was revolution 1924 box half case break number two


To get maximum benefit from the lease contract, LESSI and LESSIR tries to determine the related cash flows and then they discount these cash flows at their respective cost of capital in order to determine the quality of the resulting NPVs. And then these NPVs are assessed to go for the decision of a lease or not to lease. A first valuation is the valuation of operating lease. For that purpose, we have a little exercise where we have cost of a limo, limo's economic life, limo's lease term, the annual maintenance cost, depreciation policy which is under the makers that is modified accelerated cost recovery system. We have solvage value which is assumed here at zero, we have cost of capital and tax rate. If we determine present value of these related cash flows, we come to the present value of 98,150 dollars that is the present value of the lease contract under this exercise. Now there is a question that how much rentals in advance be there to break even this lease and NPV. Dear students, you can see we have a cash flow chart over the lease term. We have initial cost, we have maintenance cost, then tax shields on this maintenance cost and then tax shield on the depreciation. If we add up these cash flows, we have the total cash flows that are highlighted in red block. When we convert these cash flows into their present value, we have a present value of 98.15 or 98,150. Now we need to determine equal amount of cash flows under an annuity scheme so that we can break even this 98.15. We determine a break even level at an annuity of 26.19 or 26,190. We know that the lessee is allowed to have tax shield in its lease payments. So at 5% tax bracket, we have this tax shield. When we deduct this tax shield from the annual cash flows, we have a break even rental of 17.02 or 17,200 which is the present value at 7% and this present value at break even point is equal to the overall present value of the lease contract. If an asset is needed for a very shorter period of time, say one day, one week or so, then it is better to rent it. But if the asset is required for a period beyond one year, then it is much better to buy it. Between the option of rent or buying, there is a grey period which is to be decided by the lessee only. If we determine a decision rule for the operating lease, we can say that buy if the equivalent annual cost of ownership and operations is less than the best rate that an other lesser can offer to the lessee. Now the question arises when to go for an operating lease. It depends upon the lesser's ability to buy and manage the asset at a cost less than the lessee. This means that if a lessee can maintain the asset at a cost lesser than the maintenance cost borne by the lesser, then the lessee may go for the operating lease. Also the operating lease may be contained certain useful terms that can be used for the final decision making. Let's take an example. There is a one year lease for $25,000 and there is a six year lease for $28,000 with the cancellation options if the lessee feels this lease expensive and the option can be exercised after one year and onward. Now in these two examples, the second example seems better as the lessee have an option of cancelling the lease if it feels that the lease is onerous for his business. What are finance leases? Finance leases covers major parts of the asset's economic life. These are non-cancellable. These carry business risk of owing and operating the capital asset. These lease payments create a fixed obligation for the lessee to make these payments in a series on periodic basis. These lease carry a mode means these are another way of borrowing money to pay for the asset. The decision regarding financial lease rests on lease versus borrow. You have to analyze the financial worth of lease and financial worth of a borrowing option. But under operating lease the decision rule is buying versus rent. Now how to value a finance lease? For that purpose we have a little exercise. We have cost of bus. We have lease terms. We have first payment at time zero means the rentals are in advance. We have annual payments. We have maintenance cost, depreciation policy which is under makers, solvage value which is zero at the end of the project's life. Then we have marginal tax rates and lessee's incremental borrowing rate. It is notable that lessee under finance lease is not allowed to use tax shield on depreciation expense. So in this case the lessee foregoes the tax shield. Tax shield instead is allowed on the lease payments. On the left half you can see a schedule over the lease terms. In this schedule we have payment for the new bus as its cost. We have tax depreciation which is a lost tax shield because lessee is not allowed. So we have lease payments after the lessee go for the lease. Then we have a tax shield on these lease payments. And finally we have cash flows of this lease term. We have different cash flows from the zero time period to the time period of seventh year who really owns the assets. Is it a lessee or a lessee? You see that if we acquire an asset under secured loan how our balance sheet would look like. We have let's say in the example we have a bus of $100 placed in the asset site. We have other assets of $1000 on the liabilities side. We place our secured loan. Then we have other debt and equity. The balance sheet has a total of $1100 on both of the sides. When we acquire assets under secured loan we feel certain features like the lessee must make series of periodic payments to the lender. Then if the lessee defaults the lender acquired back the assets from the possession of the lessee. But upon payment of the loan when the loan repayments are fully satisfied the asset goes back to the lessee. But what is the status of the asset under a finance lease? You know that under finance lease lessee is the legal honor of the asset whereas we have seen that under borrowing it is the lender who is the honor of the asset but the lesser or the user is the user of the asset. Under finance lease lessee is allowed to deduct depreciation expense from taxable income. The as under finance lease it is the lesser who owns the asset therefore by law the lesser is allowed to use tax shield on the depreciation of the asset he owns. The lesser has nothing to do with the benefit gain or loss incurred on the assets because now the asset is in the position of the lessee and he is the honor of all the benefits gains and risk attached to this particular asset. As the finance lease expires the lesser gets the possession of the asset. Now in this case how the balance sheet may look like if we compare this balance sheet with the earlier balance sheet under the borrowing option we can see that there is only one change that under finance lease the lessee shows this obligation as finance lease in its liabilities sites of the balance sheet. There is no other difference that we see for rest of the contents of the balance sheet. Is there any implication of taxation for a lease contract? However lessee who is the user of the asset lessee is not allowed to reap the benefits of tax shield on depreciation because he is not the legal honor of the asset instead the lessee is allowed to reap the benefits of tax shields on the lease payments he makes periodically to the lesser. So far as the lesser is concerned as he is the legal honor of the asset by tax laws the lesser is allowed to reap benefits of tax shields on the depreciation of the assets he owns and in this regard the lessee must report the lease rentals in his accounts as his income which is subject to the tax law.