Good morning traders. We're live. We're live, and it's the bookmap channel and we'll all be hanging out together Aren't we excited? All right, we got 22 people hanging out. Please smash that like button sure would appreciate it All right guys, well, I'm running a bit late getting set up here this morning So I'm gonna do my analysis live right in front of you for those of you that are just joining us here for the first time My name is Charles. I run a live stream with a company called pirate traders where we talk about the ES the NQ and The two-way auction process. I'm a day trader I trade intraday and I use market profile book map and the market internals to give me an edge and To understand what kind of opportunities the market is making available So let's start by zooming all the way out and looking at the daily Because that'll give us some perspective as to what might be happening bigger picture with the market When we talk about auction processes, it is basically a competition between buyers and sellers Sometimes the market is in a moment of excess where it is moving in a certain direction where the buyers or the sellers are in Charge and other times the market is in balance where it's just trading around inside of a range One thing that we know is the balance leads to excess and excess leads to balance Okay, if we just look here bigger picture, we can say look we had balance down here Then we had excess then we had balance and then we had excess right We can zoom in even more And we can see it as like balance excess balance excess balance excess balance Excess right so it really depends what time frame you trade But the process is essentially the same the market pushes itself as high as it can Or it pushes itself as low as it can and then it has to balance off that excess How does it do that? How does it balance off that excess? Well, there are two ways If the market makes a move higher it can just bounce around at higher prices We call that balancing with time Or it can push higher and then pull back with price We call that balancing with price So what we had at the end of last week was excess right? We hit all this balance The market broke out. We got this move. Well now what is likely to come next? If we had excess and excess leads to balance the next thing we're looking for is balance Okay So the first indication that we might be getting some balance today meaning we might be getting a market that is done going up And ready to either go sideways or down today Is the fact that we are in what is called a previous balance area So i'll zoom out here in just a second and explain why this these particular levels But for now, this is the balance area. We pushed our way directly from one end to the other And when we got to the balance area high we ran out of momentum Often when that happens that is the market's way of telling us that it needs to head back down To the opposite end of balance once again that it needs to turn this into a range on the daily that it will bounce between Now that doesn't mean that has to happen today. It's not a reason to short because that probability is in play There is still the possibility we could get buyers to step in and keep it going So we want to first make sure be certain that that momentum is over And then there's also the option that we may create this excess and then just balance it off going sideways at higher prices We may do it for days So we don't want to short automatically purely because it looks like a look above and fail of a balance area But just to give you the context of that The reason that I have these particular levels marked on the chart these two lines Is because in the past the market has moved very quickly from one end to the other It looked above here failed and immediately pulled to the other end It tried to get the other side couldn't came back down look below and failed immediately to the other end Broke through immediately to the other end. Look below and fail immediately to the other end It did it like four days in a row Let's zoom in so you can get a closer look at that Okay, so you can see it just kept going From one end to the other to the other to the other to the other until it was able to break above But then what happened when it came back? Boom straight through to the other end What happened when it looked above and failed boom straight through to the other end? Okay, so this area is an area the market moves right directly through again and again and again Important to be aware of So as we get back Right now, you know years later to this same place where the market has done business in the past And it's moved directly from one end to another and we see it move directly from this end to this end It would not be unreasonable to assume as it did in the past Looking above this area and failing could lead to that larger pullback So that information has me neutral today And I will need to zoom in to get more insights Okay, so let's push in here a little bit and we'll take a look at the market profile chart What are the signals that the excess would be over and that we're ready to balance? Well, the first signal will be if the market pushes below yesterday's low Friday's low is at 45 31 as long as we remain above that level. We still have excess Okay, the momentum in the market is still going now It would appear to me from the way this overnight traded that likely that momentum is over But that over or that low from yesterday will tell the tale Okay, that low from Friday will be the deal or no deal level If they can hold the support they can keep the momentum going to the upside We could have another trend day up But if they pull below that low, then we know we are either getting that balanced sideways Or that pullback with price Okay, so let's talk about the pullback with price again doesn't have to happen today But just what we'd want to be paying attention to If the market pushes below yesterday's low if it pushes below 45 31 and then it starts to find resistance there We will begin the process of what we call monitoring for continuation To the downside Oh the camera. Thank you for the heads up. I forgot Sorry guys Didn't get to see my beautiful face It's early. Um, okay, so And I hope that that looks good There we go all right Um, so yeah, if we get resistance there at yesterday's low We will begin the process of what we call monitoring for continuation to the downside So the resistance would tell us the momentum is over But it wouldn't tell us if we're pulling back with price or we're just going to go sideways So the first thing we're going to look to do is repair the very first week reference Which is this week c and e period low that we left behind at 45 25 Okay If we repair that that might be all the market needs It could find support right there and turn around and head right back up If it does that we assume it's going to balance with time So we're looking for a sideways day inside friday's range okay, but If we come down there and then we repair that and we don't turn around We look to target the next week reference, which is at 45 21 Okay, if we poke below that one same as the one before if we poke below it and fail And pull right back up then we're just using time and we're just going sideways However, if both of those if we repair both those weak references and that is not enough to bring in the buyers Then we need to start looking at the gap that we left behind last week to 44 78 That becomes the scenario where the market cannot balance off this excess with time It must balance it off with price pulling back down to fill that gap So quite frankly the way I see the market. It is truly that simple I don't need it to be any more complicated than that If we continue to stay above yesterday's high or sorry yesterday's low friday's low I assume we're going to keep going up if we get below it Repair these weak references and then turn around. I assume we're going sideways If we get below repair those weaker weak references and we don't turn around Then I'll be looking to pull back down and fill that gap below Okay, so literally up Down or sideways How do we know what's happening? Yesterday's low and these two weak references at 45 25 and 45 21 So with that being said now that the camera situation is under control. Does anybody have any questions for me? Good morning to rk jay in the house Jay says, thank god, it's monday traders have got to be the only people on earth That can't wait to get back to work on monday Us and heroin addicts the light traveler Already crowning me champion. Thank you, sir. Appreciate you John q would happen to the david goggans poster I've never had a david guy. Oh, oh, you're talking about the picture. Oh, yeah, that's the picture of me and my friends for when I was like 25 in australia um Ty says how much time at the resistance do you look for? so That's a tricky question. I mean what if it happens this morning if the market opens and when pushes below there I'll be live. So I'll be able to tell you But it's really all the signals that I look at right So the first is the resistance at the actual price level So the market would push below there and it would just not be able to get back up in yesterday's range, right? That would be the first sign Then I'd be watching the book map over here and I'd be trying to figure out what's happening with the liquidity Is there more liquidity? So that's the little box that you see right here So I'd be asking myself. Is there more liquidity above or below? And what's happening with it? Is there a bunch of orders starting to fill right above it? You know, that's that's resistance building Then I know that resistance is likely to hold and push the market down to whatever that next level is below And then of course on the market internals Which aren't going to do us any good yet Market's got to open before they're any use to us But when the market internals open, I'll be looking at those as well. Are we getting resistance at the ticks? What's going on with the breath? Okay, so All those different things will give me insights as far as how much time it could be one minute It could be two hours, right? We know this market loves to Chop it loves to grind and grind and grind and get as many people as they can One way or another and they just did it All weekend long Right, they tried to spike down in the end period yesterday couldn't quite make it work came back up in the range So that's not as bearish, but then they spent the entire weekend Grinding and grinding and grinding and grinding right on friday's low. So they may keep it going. They may do it for hours today um So whether they do it in two minutes or they do it in two hours All i'm asking myself is what is happening? Are we pushing below yesterday's range? Are we getting resistance down there as long as we are and no matter how long it takes? I assume we're coming down to repair That first week reference once it does. Well, then it's a new ballgame. Let's figure out what happens next But if we get resistance at friday's low, that is the first sign that we need to start repairing the weakness We've left behind Okay, and the same thing will be true if we don't if we start to grind around in here and we stay inside yesterday's range We don't dip below there. I'm not going to get bearish I'll remain neutral and wait to see what happens when we get to the overnight high if we get above that overnight high at 45 40 and we start finding support the same way. I assume it's heading to The first week reference below if we get resistance I will assume we're heading to the first week reference above and same thing as before monitoring for continuation to the upside That to me is less likely today, but of course still a probability But however long they have to diddle in the middle However long they have to grind around this low to give us that information. I will wait I will be patient Good morning. Alyssa and nap We got 15 minutes till the market opens and charlie's run out of stuff to talk about So We'd love some questions Let's actually let's jump over and take a look at the queue. We'll get some levels going for that as well NQ exactly the same as the es exact same thing You've got the gap you left behind down here The gap you left behind here And you're right on Friday's low So exact same thing you've got the excess right now and as long as they can stay inside Friday's range They can keep it going, but if they dip below Friday's low look for resistance Although I would say with the two gaps the probability that it will pull back with price is higher So essentially just use the overnight range as you're the overnight high and the overnight low From the weekend As your important levels to pay attention to that is 15 7 33 and 15 6 63 7 33 and 6 63 there's synchronicity in that So yeah, just use those as your levels if they push above that overnight high and they start to find support Look for continuation higher, you know, you got resistance, but they have the momentum And if you push below the overnight low and you find resistance there That is exactly to a tick the the low from Friday You will look for continuation lower from there And as long as they're chopping around inside this overnight range Your guess is as good as mine Honestly looking at it on the daily the nq is in a very different position than the es right I could easily see them if they can hold that low. It's very weak. It's a very poor low So it's a giant magnet pulling on price and those two gaps are also giant magnets But if it's able to defy gravity and stay inside Friday's range, they could keep it going Let's wait and see what happens at the open 230 is here Rob the trader says no significant econ news Happy to hear that The market's free do whatever you want market David says, can you explain advance decline versus tick? They seem almost identical to me. They are almost identical So the advances versus declineers is measuring volume the up volume versus the down volume And the ticks are measuring The price being higher than the price being lower So the number of stocks in the index that are getting more volume in them Versus the number of stocks in the index that are going up in price They basically it's very similar. It's just a subtle difference Chilling with Dylan in the house 60 people hanging out 25 put it by likes Man somebody's left some resting orders on the queue So one thing that we talk about is spoofing Spoofing is a very real thing that market participants do. There are firms that this is their whole business model They do it on individual stocks. They do it on the indexes. They do it all over the place And essentially the idea is they put very very large amounts of volume In specific spots in the order book to catch your attention to get you to go. Ooh Look at that So in this case, I would assume they put that there to act as a magnet to pull price to it Right so that you might feel confident going along right now Because you know, there's liquidity waiting up there You know, someone with large size wants to go short up here where you feel good about going long Because you know somebody's going to buy it from you But then what happens if the price starts to move up towards it? Once that market starts to push up As it gets closer and closer and closer does that liquidity start to disappear? Right if that liquidity starts to disappear, you know, it's not real. It's just a spoof And in the same regard, let's say that the market was coming down Do do do and then all of a sudden a big giant node started to form down here Well, that's doing the exact same thing But instead of acting as a magnet to pull the price towards it It's acting as a magnet to scare the price away Right to get all those sellers thinking oh no, there's a big order right there. I better go ahead and take profits Someone with size is trying to go long And so then that reverses the market So a lot of times when you see these big huge nodes, it's not actually real volume that's going to fill when you get there It's just a spoof So I'll also be watching that node if the nq is able to find support and start pushing higher today Does it start to disappear as price gets closer to it? John Q Like the dating app company spoof beautiful women It's not the company's doing that. That's the women And being a 38 year old man on the dating scene, I can tell you this is real The number of women that I match up with And then go out on a date and realize oh you're 10 years older than all your pictures Those were definitely you in the past It is funny not on that particular point, but it is funny how often Lessons you learn in the market are also very valuable in life It was the 39th and new 2029. I agree I feel like I'm a kid I feel young at heart ADB says I feel lucky to be with you guys Hmm. Well, we're lucky to have you Welcome push that thumbs up button Oh, also, I should mention my workshop since the market's going to open in three minutes So I'm teaching a workshop Where I teach everything that I'll be talking about today In a you know lecture style format. It literally starts today at 11 So when I finish streaming here, I'll literally be switching over to do that So if anybody is interested in checking that out head to the website pirate traders dot i o Oh, I misspelled it pirate trade furs And you will uh see it there Last chance to sign up Any final questions for me before the opening bell rings and all hell breaks loose Market is open All right. So the first move is directly above the overnight high Fantastic information right out the gate So now what we're looking to see is can we turn that overnight high into support? 45 39 can the market start to hold that level Then we'll look to repair meaning pass through the weak reference up here at 45 42 which looks like it's going to happen while i'm talking there it is So now they've just turned off the magnet So now we can test that support And if it holds it should be reliable for continuation Charles market's going up should we be bullish bullish bullish? No, no, no, no Sometimes they just got to poke up there to get the liquidity We got to wait to see support before we can have any kind of confidence um Gains them Any movement before Market open is that an indicator? For how market will move when open? Um sometimes yeah, like if the overnight was just bouncing around all night or all weekend long in a tight range That does increase the odds that the market will probably do that as well At least in the beginning of the day, right? Who knows for how long for but that if they needed to chop around You know friday's low all night. Surely we probably need to chop around it a little bit Okay, so we're testing that support right now Can they hold it? Um and whereas if the overnight range had like a ton of movement if it was like You know a massive move to a new location Likely that momentum will continue and we'll get a gap and go So yeah, it can be an indicator All right, so so far That's uh overnight high is holding which is bullish to see Good morning pavel Rob says does the tpo help you when econ data comes out or do you sit? Do I sit out um it depends it all depends man is that you know everything is case by case basis So all that the tpo chart is doing is showing me the actual information that's in the market, right? It's how many contracts traded at what level? um So that information is always valuable because it's telling you what's happening right now The why it's happening and the what comes next that's the art of trading, right? That's that's what we're doing as traders. We're trying to Analyze the information we have and make predictions So there are certain, you know types of econ events where I would be totally flat like an fomsc meeting or something like that I would be completely flat when the meeting is happening, but then be sitting and watching the chart for information How is the market reacting to the news as it's coming out? Um, although I will be totally honest with you most of the time. I don't pay attention to news at all I don't really care If I'm in a trade I'm in a trade because the market generated information has already told me to be in it So if some you know event happens and the market gets volatility and something changes The information will change and then I will change my mind, but I tend to Once the market tells me it's highest probability is higher or lower I get in the trade and I wait for it to play out if the market doesn't give me new information I don't change. I don't change my trade. I don't change my opinion And I don't care what could happen I'm focused on what am I seeing that actually is happening. That's the only reliable information Speaking of which we're back to test that overnight high Can they hold it? Okay, so pulling back down inside the overnight range. Oh, maybe not We're dancing right on it All right. Well, that's twice it held and the ticks are now above the zero line So that is a sign of new buyers I am bullish to head up and test the resistance around 45 47 And look for sellers there and then once again see can we hold the support? The look at the liquidity and book map. It's going to be a grind Well, Charles, if it's going to be a grind if there's a ton of resistance above How can you be bullish? Well, because my only question was can we find new buyers above the overnight high? And we have So now we're back to test it again ABD says it's going to paint a new high today on the nq Um, let's take a look. Oh, man, they're making the weakest lows Yeah, so the nq does have the momentum. Absolutely. It could keep going But here's the thing another week low Look at that low volume and look at the exactness of that overnight high along with the poor low And overnight low and two gaps below I mean, they are just every move the market makes up. It's creating another magnet to pull it back down so Yes, technically they have the momentum but uh They're not doing it in a healthy way They're doing it in a way that's more short-term speculative And the market will likely need to come back down sooner or later for all this weakness But for now, yes, sir monitor for continuation to the upside And of course if they get above friday's high They could keep it going That's the thing about weakness. So there's two main aspects that we're looking at Momentum, which is like the market's pushing force that keeps it going in a certain direction And then the weakness the unfinished auctions that it leaves behind on the way As long as it has momentum, we don't worry about the weakness Right as long as they can keep it going we just let them keep it going It'll shock you how far they can push it But the second it runs out of momentum all that weakness comes into play So the more of these bad lows that they create The more they're setting themselves up for a massive pullback whenever the momentum runs out Frito says I hate when it hits your price and you don't get filled What broker do you use? I never have that problem Good morning to nor Frito says well when only 15 trades at 43 and you were the 16th in line. You don't get filled Yeah, start putting your orders one tick above I've literally never had anyone comment as as frequently as you about missing orders by a tick Just start putting them one tick higher. It's a tick bro. It's 15 bucks. Let it go like Save yourself the stress of always having this happen and just put it one tick higher All right, so there you go pulling back down inside the overnight range means we don't have that momentum dump dump dump So what does that mean? Are we bearish? No Not at all We are just back in the chop zone It just means the market needs to spend a little more time grinding around in here Like it did in the overnight. So what do we focused on now? Well now we're focused on support Right, where can they find support if they can hold the market up without dipping below friday's low? They still have momentum and they can keep it going But if they dip below friday's low then everything changes We were also now watching the half back for resistance So this overnight high was support Does it now become resistance that too is new information Um, jk. Do I mind showing my volume dot settings? No, not at all So the reason that I uh I have my settings set up the way I do Uh, the reason I have my settings set up the way they do is I want as minimal distractions as possible For me, I only want to know when it's a huge divergence in price Um, you know a lot more buyers or a lot more sellers So with both the volume dots and the icebergs And stop setting I have the order size very very large Minimal display volume 300 So that uh, I only see the big boys That's what's so cool about book map is you can custom tailor. I mean same thing with window trader You can custom tailor this to however your brain works Whatever is the easiest way for you to process what's happening and that's why I have the settings the way I do It's just easier for me. I can't have like a million dots everywhere. Then it's just too much too much information So i'm looking at this volume here on the uh The book map this liquidity same thing I was talking about with the nq this to me is likely a spoof So it'll be interesting to see what happens as the market starts to move down towards the direction Of 45 30 does that liquidity disappear as the market gets closer to it The idea being they're just trying to pull you down so they can disappear it and then head right back up Good morning scalping strategy Great morning for scalping They're gonna chop it up chopping broccoli Sometimes I call it chop salad or make a slap chop joke I don't know what a slap chop is But that is what chop does it slaps traders in the face Slap the buyers It really is I mean just if you look at these large so these large dots that you're seeing here You know, that's an area where there is significantly more buyers than sellers And if the liquidity Wasn't there in the books ahead of time.  No, we are not bullish We were bullish as long as we were above the overnight high We are now neutral Right, so we are now assuming that the market needs to spend more time going sideways But As long as they're above yesterday's high If that sideways move if that chop breaks to the upside we will get bullish once again But now we need to wait for more information. They couldn't hold the overnight high It means they don't have the buyers to keep going yet But as long as they're above friday's low, they can find them anywhere in this overnight range So they could find support anywhere in here and turn around and head up So we're watching for support and then we're watching for what happens when we get above the overnight high once again This is very very reminiscent of friday morning Where we've got all sorts of weird divergences happening So i'm looking at the internals here So price action is going sideways, but the internals are building momentum higher So there's one thing happening in the futures market and something else happening in the underlying shares They're speculating short in futures, but they're buying the actual companies themselves Why would they do that? Perhaps so that they could get those Purchases at a lower right lower price But then when i'm looking at the 15 moving average or sorry the 20 moving average on the 15 minute candles We've got one acting as support and one acting as resistance NQ is support es is resistance So there's just some divergences happening here Nothing wrong with just waiting to be certain before entering a trade Okay, so here we go round three Can they hold the overnight high? It held the first one it broke the second one and now we're back to test it again And we'll let them do this as long as they need to we don't know how long it's going to take We can't time the market But we know if it's going to go higher it will likely find support here first Let's see if they get it see that they just stopped out a bunch of sellers again Short-term speculators stop it scalpers you stop it Stop putting your orders a point above your entry They're just going to wipe you out again and again All right, so the time it held i'm bullish once again For continuation to the upside same as before they've got to hold this overnight high So they just turned it into support again. So they opened they pushed above turned it into support repaired the first week reference Came back through and broke back into the range. Okay. We needed to spend more time We needed to bring in more volume We just did that pushed above it again turned it into support. So once again, I trusted that we're heading up to first backfill the low volume High that we left behind at 45 43 and then test the resistance up at 47 But not if they pull back down inside the overnight range. They got to hold this support And keep it going But it does look to me like the buyers just took control Okay, so they just brought in some volume to backfill that low volume note at the high And now the initial balance is to the upside which is a little bit bullish to see So I just think I just want to take a second to explain You guys saw the way that whole scenario just played out, right? The market started to push higher gave a signal it was going to go higher. Whoops wasn't ready yet Did I instantly get bearish? Did I instantly start to freak out? Nope? I just said, okay, we need more information and I just sat back and waited the market gave more information This is this is the thing you can't need things to always work perfectly the first time exactly But the question is are they continuing to bring volume in above the overnight high? Well, then they've got the momentum So sometimes you just have to be patient and wait these things never work when you want them to But they do work So now we're looking to start grinding our way through this resistance above And see if we can hold that overnight high When I say The overnight high am I referring to Friday or Sunday? the whole thing so I calculate I look at the market in a very specific way, which is the regular training hours 9 30 A.m. To 4 p.m. And then everything else gets smushed together and I just call that the overnight So when I'm talking about the overnight today, I'm actually talking about the whole weekend The the high that the whole weekend made you can visually see it on the chart. It's these these two levels right here So this was your Friday high, and then this was the sunday high coincidentally happened to be the exact same level Um, but if they were different, it would just be whichever was the high, you know, whichever was higher of the two Another thing that's worth mentioning while we're talking about the overnight high and support Whenever I talk about these levels I'm never talking about them exactly to a tick So for example, I said overnight high is where I'm looking for support, but then I drew the line like a point below it That's really more how I think about a level if I'm thinking that this level here Is going to act as support. I'm really just looking for support somewhere in this area And a lot of times not getting too fixed on exactness needing it to be to a tick at an exact level Will make reading support and resistance much easier PSC says es volume is low Yes, sir. I would concur There's some tom foolery happening right now. I don't know what it is But the divergence between price and the ticks all day long Someone's doing something But that's all right. I don't need to worry about it as long as they got the momentum They're heading up to test resistance once they get resistance They're coming back down to test support and we'll just see how long they keep the game going In case we should be pushing into some resistance here around 47 where we had that large volume node We spent some time and brought in some volume here on friday So we suspect there will be sellers waiting up in here now So the question isn't do we lose bullishness because they're sellers? No, of course not They're still inside yesterday's range. They could keep it going all the way to yesterday's high Now the question is once we get the resistance what happens with support They push up in they run out of momentum. They come back down. Where do those buyers step in As long as it's above the overnight high It's bullish Imran says wouldn't you play the range between support resistance or too risky? Yes, absolutely Now I wouldn't short. That's the thing. I would buy support and sell resistance I wouldn't try to sell resistance and buy support So I wouldn't be putting a limit short up here Hoping that it's going to bounce and pull back But I would buy support and take profits in resistance And then if it pulls back guess what I would do again buy support And then look to take profits at the next resistance and so on and so forth So I only take trades in the direction of the momentum Which means like when it's when the momentum is up when it's bullish I'm only buying and taking profits in resistance. Not the other way around and vice versa on the way down So now that we're getting the resistance, I could look for support. Where do I want to put my entry? Where can I buy to come back up and test that next resistance? You know what I mean? Rather than trying to short When I have no clue how far down it'll go Don't fight the momentum as they say uh gain some If you look at the nq is that market manipulation on where they keep adding and removing liquidity? Um, yeah, I mean I can already answer your question. Yes They're trying to fool you and they're trying to fool each other every minute of every day Um This up here Yeah, it's clearly scaring away price Right What was happening? Market was working its way up Made some lows started. Whoops Made some lows started to work its way higher. And then what do they do? Throw in this huge note of volume Then what did price do?  Oh, fuck that and started heading the other way So I suspect That's not real It'll disappear once price starts to come back up again But for now it worked they scared the price away So nq is dancing right on that overnight high Much less bullish to see They also created a weak B period low stopping exactly at that to a tick So I would say it's still kind of choppy here on the Nq Ross says if for some reason you can't trade in the morning Will you trade later in the day? Or will you skip the trading day? It's a good question. I mean because this is what I do for a living I oh I've never missed a morning. You know what I mean? Like I this is my job. Um, so That's not really something that happens to me But to answer your question No, if I if I missed the morning and I was available in the afternoon that wouldn't stop me from trading What I would do is I would go back and replay the morning though So I would you know, this software allows you to go in And just pick a time So I would literally just go like boop. Let me start at 9 30 a.m And I can play it at like 10x speed and I just watch how it trades real quick What happened at the open? Where did we find support? Where do we find resistance and just catch myself up? Um, because I do think what happens in the first hour of the day sets the tone for the rest of the day And it's not as easy to understand if you just look at the chart afterward You really have to feel where does it find support? Where is it find resistance? What is the tempo? Is it speeding up here? Is it slowing down here? So I would go back and replay the morning before I started entering trades in the afternoon But um, but I'd be fine with it Travis I have I Completed one trade and that is going to be the only trade I take today because uh I got my workshop later on And I can't be sitting in a trade all day when I'm trying to teach other people It's just too much to think about But that being said normally on a day like today If I bought support at the overnight high And we were inside the previous day's range I know that there is a probability now that the momentum on the daily could continue, right? Like this excess isn't over It's what we started talking about this morning It could be over because we looked above that balance area high But for us to know it would have to dip below friday's low it didn't do it It couldn't it tried and tried and it couldn't So now we still have excess on the daily. There's a very real possibility We could be heading back up through yesterday's high through friday's high So if I wasn't teaching a workshop, I'd just be sitting in my trade And I would stay in it as long as we stayed above that uh overnight High And then once we printed the c period as long as we stayed above the b period low and the d as long as we stayed above the scene so on and so forth But today's a unique situation where I'm happy to just grab some profits and get back to thinking clearly and back into teaching mode Uh alan welcome. He says do you mainly watch support and resistance or do you look for wedges? and elli-wave patterns um The only candlestick stuff that I look at is trend lines and channels I don't really pay attention to wedges and stuff like that It is kind of all the same thing Like if there was a wedge, I would probably have a trend line above and below But I don't think about it in those terms For me everything is support and resistance. Everything is where are the buyers? Where are the sellers and what happens when we get there? And for the most part on candlesticks, all you need is trend lines Those tend to be the most important And I don't look at elli-wave at all I don't think elli-wave matters on a daytime frame Dylan says it looks like you're open to using larger stops if the trade looks good Just not putting them behind close Structure true. Yes true So the way I choose my stops is where is the place that the market is most likely? Like I'm definitely wrong So let's say I'm long right now and I bought somewhere around that overnight high. Let's say I bought somewhere in here I would be looking for us to stay above that overnight high But I'm not going to put my stop like literally right there. No, no, I'm gonna put my stop all the way down here I'm gonna give it more breathing room because you know sometimes the market will just go real quick and then come back up But if it comes back through that opening price without a doubt, I'm wrong and it's going lower Right, so that stops all the way down there. Give it some more room So how do I trade with large stops? How do I take a five-point or an eight-point stop? I use position sizing So what my goal is with risk management something I'm going to be teaching in the workshop this week Um My goal with risk management is every trade I get in I want to be risking the exact same amount Which is two percent of my entire portfolio my the amount of risk capital I have to trade with each day Every single trade I want to be risking two percent So I know based on the number of ticks Um between my entry and my stop what position size to use So for example if I was trying to get into the trade You know right here and I was going to put my stop literally right here I might get in with say three es contracts Right, but then if I wanted to put my stop all the way down here I may get in with just one es contract. Does that make sense? So it's the same amount of risk. It's the same amount of money for me No matter where I put the stop But the position size changes So when I want to trade with larger stops, I have to live with the Reality that I have to trade with smaller size But that's fine Right because I just want to be in a trade that has the highest probability of working I don't care about how much money I make. That's not my issue. I don't worry about the profits at all I worry about the losses So I want to put a stop where it's not going to get filled so that I don't take on a loss And if that means I have to have a smaller position size and I might not make as much money. Well, okay That's fine. My focus is on protecting myself from losses not worrying about the gains The gains they take care of themselves as long as I don't take on the losses Okay, so we're back up in this node testing this resistance once again Can they poke through? I would also say the fact that the b period lows stopped exactly One take above the halfback Increases the odds that they may get some more resistance and come back down for once more But let's see if they can poke through this time Renato watching from brazil Welcome Imram says can I explain? What the tool are setting to the left of book map is yeah So this one over here on the left side of the screen is called market profile It's also referred to as tpo charts And basically it's the same thing as a candlestick. So if you see each one of these letters That's like a 30 minute candlestick basically but By putting it in this format We're able to see how much time the market spends at a specific level And how much volume it brings in and that's of course what I use to understand where participants will be waiting right I assumed we were going to run out of steam up here because that's where we spent the most time And brought in the most volume on friday So if there were people doing business there on friday, well, they're probably waiting to do business there on monday And so on and so forth Dylan says make sense. Do you get risk neutral on your trade or just let it ride all the way again? That's Case by case basis But as soon as I can move my stop above my entry again with the probability being that I won't get stopped out Yes, I will always do that So for example, if we print the c period here in about five minutes If I was in a trade and my stop was down here As soon as we printed that c period and it poked a tick above the b or sorry two ticks above the b I'd move my stop To two ticks below the b because that's now the new level where I know for sure if it goes through there I'm wrong and it's not going to keep going up So yeah, as soon as I can get risk neutral, I love it. It's my favorite thing to do But you can't rush into it That's something that took me a long time to learn you have to a lot of times let a trade work for a little bit Give it time and then you move it If you're only moving your stop to manage your psychology to make you feel less You know scared or whatever you got to break that habit. That's not good You only move the stop when That is the statistically best probability thing to do Everything I do is trying to think like a casino not a gambler Play the probabilities don't play the emotions Uh, this person says sir is your platform available in iran I honestly don't know if they have window trader or book map in iran I assume so So both of these the software that you see on the screen right now on the right and left These are just software programs. This isn't a broker or anything So you should be able to license these anywhere. I would assume The one on the left is called window trader spelled without a w at the end and the one on the right is book map Boy, I wish I could have more confidence as we're about to get the c period that I'm bullish, but um Those ticks are struggling to stay on the zero line And the nq looks straight up neutral They got a weak low they left behind in the b period And they haven't even been able to break the a period range So this is like just straight up neutral And you're gonna have to wait and see which end of the initial balance breaks first If they break the a period high At 15 uh 7 85 Look for continuation higher and if they break the a period low at 15 708 look for continuation lower But it's too hard to know inside right now And the es Is a little more bullish right you got the initial balance to the upside you got the value area Um up against the high of the day So this is a little bit more bullish But I wouldn't be absolutely convinced until they get that c period above the the b If they do get that c period above the b Then you can assume as long as they stay above that b period low They can keep it going up And when they print the d period as long as they stay above the c period low They can keep it going up and they can do it all day Because they do have the momentum on the daily right We've had higher highs and higher lows for the last few days in a row And we did just make a higher low This morning so there's no reason whoops, so there's no reason in the world To assume that we can't head on up and make a higher high But we got to just monitor for continuation and there's a lot of resistance. They're gonna have to grind their way through to get there So it is slightly bullish trade safe For those of you that are in the brigade, I will see you tomorrow morning For those of you that are not i'll see you here on monday and for those of you that are in the workshop I will see you in 30 minutes time And it's gonna be fun. Thank you all very very much. I appreciate you And we'll see you next time. Bye


All right. So I ask you again, Clifford has said that if you are your title to your belief, only if you have sufficient evidence, sufficient evidence is that the belief conforms to uniformity nature and the common human experience. If you do not have sufficient evidence, you must suspend judgment. Does the second part of this claim about suspending judgment, does that have sufficient evidence? Clifford says for it to have sufficient evidence has to be part of the common human experience, but it is not part of the common human experience that you suspend judgment. In fact, most people in the face of disagreement hold on to the beliefs even more tightly. So the second part of Clifford's claim that you must withhold belief in a face of disagreement. If it doesn't conform to the common human experience, you must withhold judgment. The second part of this belief don't have sufficient evidence for it. Oh boy, that's a big problem for Clifford's view. If that's not part of the common human experience, then the force of Clifford's conclusion is pretty much lost. He says you're not entitled to beliefs for which you don't have sufficient evidence. If you don't have the submission, you have to withhold judgment, but we don't do it under his own account. Under his own account of what counts as sufficient evidence, he doesn't have sufficient evidence for this conclusion. That's a big deal. Clifford's own account disagrees with itself.