Piku. Piku. Indeed. Piku. Piku. Piku. Piku. Piku. Piku. Piku. Are you exhausted yet? That's actually...  I'm Rick. And this is a movie reaction. Dun dun dun! Uh... We watched a film called A Piku. Yeah. Well not A Piku but just... Piku. Piku. Uh, directed by... Uh... I wanna say her name. Oh, his name, sorry. Should I... Shooted Sir Carr? Yeah. Who also directed Pink. Mm-hmm. Uh, and the... It's starring obviously Depeca, Amatapak John, and Irfan Khan. Who did you notice in the opening credits? He was just billed as Irfan? Really? There was no Blokan. It was just Irfan. Interesting. Yeah. Like Shredevi. Right. I don't know her last name. I don't know what that was about. Oh yeah, she does. When did she? Yeah, in fact, her first name isn't Shredevi. It's a combination of two. Her first name was Shiree. And I think just that. But anyway. Uh, and the synopsis is a corky comedy about the relationship between daughter and her aging father, whose eccentricities... Ex-centricities. Drive everyone crazy. Oh, by the way, she should probably... If you're gonna see this movie, you probably wanna like step outside, because it'll be spoiled for you. It'll be ruined for you if you hear this. Glad I remembered that. Okay, sorry. Bye, Alexis. Bye. And this will be obviously a complete spoiler review as all of ours. As all of ours. If you haven't watched it, please go watch it and come back. And if we didn't... That's kind of a hint at the front. If we didn't like it, we wouldn't tell you to waste your time to go watch it. We would just say stick around and just listen to what you have to say. It's a very interesting film. But I ended up enjoying it. I ended up loving it. And here's why it was interesting to me. Yeah. At first, I'm like, God, I'm exhausted. Because of the film or just the amount of work you're having to do. Yeah, well... Because especially in the first 20 minutes, especially the way they cut it, it was like cut, cut, cut, cut, and it was just a full dialogue over and over again, everybody talking over each other. And then basically when Piku's character was like... I think she said like, I need a break. And then it kind of slowed down. And I was like, oh, that was on purpose. Okay. That was on purpose. The director did that. The director on purpose wanted you to feel like Piku's character. Apps of freaking Lutely. They wanted you to feel exhausted with the amount of just over talking, like talking about one thing over and over and over again. Yeah. That's both the script, did that, and the direction. Yeah. And the editing. And after I realized that, I was like, that's actually pretty brilliant. Brilliant. But my favorite part about this, and we could get into more of it, was I'm going to talk Bak Chan's character. God. And he was like, so freaking annoying. But I loved him so much. I know. That's great. It made you feel like she did. On the one hand, you're irritated by the guy so much. But you still find him quite endearing. Yeah. And I could not do what Piku did. No, you could never do that. No way. Thank God my parents aren't like that. No. You would desert them. Peace out. Take care of yourself. Go away. Go away. Hire a nurse. Yes. Exactly. So what did you think of the whole thing? I just loved it. I think what I loved the most, because there is a whole lot I loved about this, is what I loved, if I was going to, if I was teaching theater again, yeah, I would tell everybody in the class, if you want to see how to act, you should watch this. Because what you're going to get, you're not going to get a character like the Joker with Heath Ledger. You're not going to get these moments like in There Will Be Blood, the whole... He drank my milk. Yeah. You're not going to get the eye drink. You're warm milk. Yeah, that's right. You're not going to get any of that. What you're going to get is, for me, just people, the beauty of them doing nothing. Yep. It's a very fly on the wall film. All of them, everybody, including the small roles, was just... And the director let them all breathe. I bet the feeling on set was just so conducive to the actors just being able to be themselves. The hardest thing for an actor to do is not act. And that's the goal of acting, is to just be. And there was never a moment where I didn't think any of these people were just being throughout the whole time. He is a very, I think, actor's director. 100%? No, because he did pink. Yeah. And that's the exact same way that film was. There's no way Big B would do two films with the same director if he wasn't happy with the director. Obviously, this is the most different we've seen Big B in a film. So we saw him in Chalet and we didn't even recognize him. He's always been strong and heavy and powerful. But he was like... I mean, he still had a presence, obviously, because that's him. Yeah. But he was so quirky and scary. Hypochondriac. A legit hypochondriac. Hypochondriac. He was so funny in a lot of... Like when he was like... When the guy came up and he was trying to talk to Topeka's character. Yeah. He's like...  She's not a horde, you know. I'm like, oh no. He didn't just say that. Yeah. I love that his whole character. And then when they incorporated Irfan Khan. And I thought that was a great addition because he was just like watching... He at... Yeah. That was a great idea. That was a great idea. But when he came in, he was almost us. Right. The outside looking in. Yeah. And he was like, how do you deal with him? Like is every conversation about poop? Well, and even her. Yeah. He had to deal with her being so rude. Yeah. I understand why though. I mean... Oh yeah. I do too. I felt so... It was a weird ending because I felt so relieved for her. So let's talk about the ending. Yeah. I felt so relieved for her but it's also her dad. And you know that she loved him. And she would never wish he wasn't around. Of course. But she was still. Like she couldn't live her life. And she couldn't just be her own person because he was a very selfish and controlling person. True. But the great conversation she has with Irfan when they're talking about... And she points out... He points out, well I'm not casting aspersions upon you. I live with my mom. I'm not saying that living with your parent in and of itself is wrong. Just you shouldn't feel this... Obviously it's screwing with your life. Yeah.  And that's one of the other things I loved so much about the movie. So much was said that was never said. Which for screenwriting that's so hard to do and it's what needs to be done. We didn't get a lot of answers about Irfan's family. We didn't find out much about his dad other than when Big B's character starts telling him you tortured your dad. Yeah. That was intense. Oh yeah. And you could see that was going... I love that we never got to hear him talk about his dad. Why did he take over the family business? We didn't get those answers. He put on a great performance and it was a very understated performance. As always with them. Yeah. I adore that guy. He's so beautifully small. He doesn't need to perform. And all of them are such great listeners. Oh yeah. And... Okay. So Deepika. Mm-hmm. I knew this about her. I assumed it especially after watching Priyanka in Barfi. That there was a weightiness and a depth to her as an artist that we really haven't gotten to see yet. And what we've seen her do. We've seen her do good work. I think we saw her in... Was it Bistrami? She was great. She hasn't done bad work. Yeah. But this. You think this was her best? Unquestionably. All right. I think it was... Unquestionably for me. The best one I think I've seen is... She was great and there's no doubt. But Bistrami and... No, for me... And Padma both. You still picked those over this? This for me was... It wasn't as revelatory for me as watching Priyanka in Barfi. But for me, I saw for the first time and I'm so excited now for her new film that will come out in January. Mm-hmm. She plays the girl who I believe was burned. Mm-hmm. This is an actress who I think can easily, like Priyanka, be completely passed over simply because she's so pretty. Mm-hmm. You lose the reality that this is a very deep... If she's not trained, I'm flabbergasted. Mm-hmm. Again, she... Think about what I'm about to say. Mm-hmm. She matched Big B and Irfan on screen with her stillness, her quiet. I never... She didn't need to perform. I never... She was thinking about what she was going to say. I never doubted that. Oh. I just... I found her to be... I saw all that in Bistrami and Padma both. Again, she was really, really good in those. Yeah. But for me, I didn't see a thespian emerge. Oh, I did. Until this. Mm-hmm. This, for me, was watching three master thespians surrounded by a supporting cast that the director and the casting director did a beautiful, beautiful job for everybody in the movie of just absolutely exquisite acting and a really, really great screenplay. I guess I got there before you. Where? Like, three thespian actors. I knew that going in. Like, that's what I was expecting. I think I had already put her on that level that you hadn't put her on yet. Maybe so. You had to put her on Priyanka's level? Oh, yeah. Okay. I hadn't done that yet. Yeah. Because I'd seen her be good, but I hadn't seen anything that, for me, was transcendent. I know a lot of you all in... Was it Bistrami? Yeah. That's the one where she plays... That's where she is the love interest that she's fighting with Big B and Irfan. That's right. I thought she outshined Priyanka in that. I know a lot of you all. Yeah, I did. I thought Priyanka was better. Yeah. I know a fence too. It was good in it, but for me, Priyanka's level show. I thought Deepika was better in that. Right. I was kind of already there. I thought she's an amazing actress. But yeah, this film... It's so funny because a lot of times I felt like a lot of the characters. Like, when Irfan went to... She was, I think, sitting on the lake or wherever the water. And he went to talk to her. And she was like, can we just sit in silence? And I was like, yes. Please do. Please do for like five minutes in the movie. Because I need a break as well. I felt like that so many times. And you mentioned the ending. Let's go back to the ending. I thought the ending couldn't have been better where they're playing and the helper comes. I didn't know what she was going to do. Didn't know what she was going to do.  Are they going to get married? Yep. I think they are. I'd like to hope they are because they seem to be pretty good for each other. I didn't care. But I didn't care if they did or didn't. I love that they just ended it without having to tie anything in a bow. They didn't have to consummate their romance with each other. They didn't have to be a big kiss or a love or just this... In little glances that she began to change. Even the smallness of the way she looked at him began to change. Which is only internal work that an actor does. You can't indicate those things. If you indicate those things you're acting and it's false. It doesn't come across as believable. And that's what blew me away was how much of her work was so natural. No indicating. I expect that from Irfan and Big B. But I didn't expect her to be as brilliant as she was. And I just... I love, love, love this movie. Yeah, it was a great movie. And I think I would enjoy it even more second time. Because I already know kind of what's going on. And so I don't have to... Because I think it was even more exhausting for us. It'd be one thing if you spoke the language and you could just watch them. And you kind of know what they're saying. We had to watch them and read. And there was a lot of words. It is torturous. It is torturous because when they're speaking you want to be looking in their eyes and in their face. And you've got to go quick up and down. Yeah. And so it's even more exhausting. I even felt I think more like Topeka from having to... Oh, I'm tired of reading. And there's other cultural references as well that I'm sure we didn't find the full impact on. Like being Bengali or not being Bengali. And I'll tell you what. We've talked about what are things, like what roles we would like to do. Like clearly what would be right for us. I would not only like to play Irfan's role. Oh yeah. I would love to see this film made as an American film taking it solely in the... Because the subject matter, you caught the metaphor of the constipation obviously. Yeah. And I would love to see just a guy who owns a taxi company with a girl taking care of her dad. And maybe they live in LA but their home is in Boston. And this guy who owns the taxi company was from New York. And they drive cross country with the dad. And you could take so much of what's inherent in this. And apply it and turn it into a story with Americans doing what they're doing. And having American cultural references. I think it's just a fantastic movie. Yeah. I think it... How many stupid's would you give it? This was as good for me as English-Finglish. So I'd give it a 10. Oh you think so? Yeah. Totally different. The reason... Yeah. Very different. But this one's more like the awards. Honestly. Like I... This could enter... Yeah. This could enter awards level. Remember Manchester, you by the sea? Yeah. I know you didn't like that film. Yeah. But it was very similar in that it was like a fly on the wall film. And that's what I'm talking about. Very much. And so like all the acting was top notch. Yeah. So that's what I'm saying. It could be like one of those types of films. Correct. Yeah. It's close to English-Finglish. Right. You could literally pop on it any second. Yeah. You're always going to be in the mood for that. Always. I would have to be in the right mood to watch this. Yeah that's why I think... For sure. I'd probably give this about a 8.59. Yeah. For me it's still a 10 for its type of film. Yeah. For me it's again, it's a film that if I were to point to people to... I love, I mean some of my favorite scenes are to point out of anything done by Meryl Streep and Daniel Day-Lewis and Tom Hardy. We could go through hundreds of scenes that are just riveting. This would probably be my favorite movie to show scenes of, you want to know how to act? Just watch these guys listen to each other. Watch them say nothing. Watch them just sit. There's a moment where Irfan is sitting on the side of the road and he's just watching them and that's all the director caught was him sitting on the side of the road. It's so hard to capture that and not look like you're acting. It's those moments... I loved the moment when he wanted him to throw the knife and he didn't want to throw the knife. So they both just sat there. Yeah. You know what I thought? I thought, the screenwriter in my head is going, we're going to come back to that knife and we're going to find out that knife had some really important meaning to him for some reason. Maybe it belonged to his dad. They never brought it back to that. We don't know why that thing was there. Yeah. It was great flying the wall film. I love it. I thought the director did a masterful job in making you feel exhausted. Yeah. Just like her. Yeah. And just like Irfan. Yeah. And it was genius because not a lot of films, because it's dangerous. Because you could just end up being like, you're just exhausted.  And you pushed her off the way. Yeah. It was a masterful job. Yeah. By, say his name for me. Yeah. By Shenzhen. I can't read it fully. Blow it up here. Shujutsu-kar. Okay. Yeah. Shujutsu-kar. We love pink. Yeah. We love this. You're an amazing director. Amazing director. Please cast us in your next film. Yes. Thank you.


Welcome back guys! This is Unfinished, the only place where we get to finish and finish matters. I am your host, Eski Gichunga. Do not forget to follow me on all social media platforms. Today, we're talking about increase in fuel price and the high cost of living. Which takes us to our next question. How has the increase in fuel price affected you? Let me know what you think in the comment section at Y254, hashtag Unfinished. Increasing prices of stuff. I don't know if it's true or not. But in terms of transport, I think it's true. I don't know if it's true or not. I don't know from where I need to go to. Yeah. So, the price is too high for me. Life-size is expensive. It's up to the point that it's up to an individual. To figure out if it's true or not, it will increase the income. I don't want to learn the same income. Nobody is willing to pay more for service. I want to add additional pay to what they used to pay. I have to track. There is an increase in transportation fee. Fair that is. So, if I'm living in Nimbakasi, I can pay 40 or 30 bucks. Rushing hours, I can pay 80 bucks. So, my budget is 40 bucks or 50 at most. So, I have to track some distance. So, it's up to the point that it's up to 30 bucks. So, the price is too high for me to affect. So, I have to learn how to track. I don't know if it's true or not. It's up to the point that it's up to the point that it's up to 50. So, I have to collect the fees. I don't want to learn about that because I know I have to track. But it doesn't affect that it's up to the point to pay money for things, that people think has to be fine because it comes to a price. I'm not a Tibetan Emperor. When I was a student, I had an attachment to the river. So by the time I moved from the river to the river, I didn't know where I was going. I didn't know where I was going because I didn't know where I was going. As a student, I didn't know where I was going. When I went to school, I was very busy. I went to school, I had no touch, I had a hard time. I had to go to the school because I was a bit extra cost. So I was able to go to school and I was able to go to school because I was a bit extra cost. Not really that much, but it has affected so many people are talking about the fare prices, the high cost of living and all that. It's a bit loading, it's a bit exhausting, but I believe soon as the president promised things will work out. Just let's believe in his word and everything will work out. The cost of the fair has increased as a student which is not considerable for me because as someone who is committing from home to school that is expensive for us so like I think it has affected us negatively. As a student, I'm broke. That's all I can say but as a student it definitely does because prices are what's called fair is increasing. Generally things in the market increasing. I think it's affecting everyone. I don't have a car but I buy other commodities and as I said before increase of fuel means increase of transport even for public services and it's hard considering I don't have a stable source of income so the fluctuating the going high all the time is making it hard to afford most of the things that I would afford last year. I would afford them easily then now I have to cancel out and say it's not a necessity anymore so I can continue at the moment not really because I live in town and I have my business in town but I expect that in the coming coming next maybe 10 or 14 days all the public institutions meet what means Matatus, buses, shuttles they will increase the price and then for sure it will in fact my my life or when I say when my my house girl might not have the money to come to the drop then it infects my my personal life. Actually the increase in it affects everything for instance the prices of commodities everything goes up even salary goes down because of taxation and all those things and so it affects everything yeah so transports food everything yeah. Personally I've been affected uh uh majorly on the commuter rather than the transporter uh where we used to pay 50 bob now we are paying at a hundred uh so personally I've been affected by some of this service uh transport service here in town they have raised their prices. Personally I feel so bad though because I can't even drive anymore I am forced to park my jeep but seriously though let's say for me because we're talking about personal issues right it hasn't hit me that much but I feel for the people who had a hard time initially coming up with that transport people who have small businesses people who eat from hand to mouth it must really be a burden for them and if something can be done I hope the government does actually intervene which takes us to our last question do you think high cost of fuel actually affects the cost of living let me know what you think in the comment section it's wide to five four and finished you know these things like food anything too needs transport single so the moment fuel increases uh those people who are transporting they need to add more money single so they charge those people who are transporting their goods and food stuff more money so as a player it's charge more money to transport that's a player will charge their product more more so that increase you can charge more charge more it will enter down to the to the like level you can affect like everyone in fact when you are affected suddenly those people who have enough but they want to are serving like day by day also send out like a partner here prices the product the commodities may hike okay transportation somebody has to income or compared to previous days so for instance a hundred bombs are here if you want to get to after okay let's say in the corner one kg of hunger but so that okay later like that okay reduce price of fuel to manage your product the price of this product is reduced so even standard pay it up or one tried at least some degree yeah the price of fuel the height in my height pure my shop as I said the same to them like food amount of career uh where's We are in a very difficult situation. We have to find a way to help the people. We have to find a way to help the people, to make sure they are working in a market. It has to affect us. It's not easy to find a way to live in a place like this. This is my father's house in Kila Gitu, Saii. He took me to transport oil foods. He took me to Kanbuni. He took me to Gari. He took me to Gari to transport from one place to another. He was living here. He lived here. He lived here. He lived here. He was imported. He was imported. He lived here. He lived here. He took me to the market. He took me to the market in the year 10th. He took me to the market in the year 15th and 18th. He took me to the market in the year 10th. He was affected by my life. It was affected because when the fuel is high, everything goes high. It affects everything in the shops, at home, the little basic things that we buy. Fuel affects everything. So the families who are living with 50 shillings in a day, they have to pull up. You see, it has affected. But I believe as Kenyans, when we believe with our leadership and our president, things will work. But when we put fingers, nothing will work because you're the ones to work. Not the president, it's us. It has increased the cost of living because, for example, when you are moving products from this place to the other place, obviously if the fuel prices have increased, that means that the cost of moving the products from one place to the other has increased. So if you increase the cost of moving the product from one place to the other, obviously the product will increase the price. It has obviously made it go higher, hence more difficult for the Kenyans, especially the Mwanaichi. You know those Kenyans, the rich ones, the ones who are almost on the government, then there's the government. So the government has to make sure that the products that we buy, the products that we buy, the products that we buy, the products that we buy, the products that we buy, the ones who are almost on the government, and then there's Kenyans, the people who vote and who actually suffer from going up and down. I think it's making it hard for the normal Mwanaichi to survive in this time. Many people are opting to go to the countryside because they will survive better there, but the jobs are in the urban centres, so it's a fight. Do I stay here and work, or do I go there and survive? Definitely, in many ways, because all the people who are supplying commodities to the supermarkets, to the markets, they will increase their commodities, they will increase their product what they sell, so it will reflect definitely negative on the pricing in the supermarkets, in the markets, and even the hookah on the streets, they cannot keep the prices in the way they had it in the past. It has actually affected the cost of living. Fuel is like energy. We control energy while controlling everything. We control energy and power and food. You literally control everything, so it has affected everything. If energy goes up, the cost for energy goes up, everything goes up. As everyone knows, petroleum rather than oil is everything. When the prices of petroleum go up, everything will automatically go up, because the petrol or the diesel or the mofflata, these things are basically on their daily-to-day basis. So when prices make a rise, automatically other products, other goods will rise. Increase in fuel prices does affect the cost of living. I might have mentioned earlier that we use fuel every day in transportation of goods from one place to another. This means from the farmer, to the manufacturer, to the retail shop, to the consumer, and by the time it gets to the consumer, it's usually highly priced. We have come to the end of this show. Thank you for watching. I am your host, Eski Gitonga. See you next time.


Hello everyone, my name is Lidrych Kroyser and today I'll be presenting my work with Rulof Berger, entitled Unequal Partners, the determinants and consequences of intra household inequality in South Africa. So usually when we do microeconomic research, our main unit of account is the household. In inequality research, what this means is that we are focusing on the inter household inequality and not really focusing on the intra household dimensions. Some estimates suggest that we are greatly underestimating consumption inequality when we do this. So understanding household origin making can help us design policies to better target the most vulnerable members of society and it also can give us insights into some other important microeconomic aspects such as the labour supply, human capital investments and fertility and so on. So like with these motivations in mind, our research research are much less ambitious. So we're asking four questions. First is the unitary model of household behaviour making valid for South African households? If it's not, is the collective model valid? If the collective model is indeed valid, can the effect of bargaining power be seen in the expenditure on consumption items and then also which factors affect the bargaining power of different household members and can gender preferences for goods be observed? So the outline of this discussion will be pretty fast followed. I'll start with the theoretical model. I'll continue through the econometric model that will discuss the data and the results. So we start by considering a two adult household with a wife and a husband. We have a household member that consumes a vector of private consumption goods. These are goods that are excludable but not necessarily assignable and this is mainly a assumption we make due to the data. The two members jointly consume public goods. Each member has their own preference relation, preferences denoted by vector A and each member has their own utility which may be dependent on her own consumption of private goods, dispasses consumption of private goods, public goods and preferences. And then consumption is then constrained by the household budget as normally. So the household function can be used to express as the weighted average of the member's utility and we see this new term, this state over here and then this is dependent on, this may be dependent on total income of the household, the preference factors of the household and distribution factors. This Pareto weight represents the decision about the utility weight of the member in total household utility. So the Pareto weight may be potentially determined by then this vector of distribution factors. Distribution factors are variables that do not enter household, the household budget constraint nor do they enter preferences of individual members but they may affect the bargaining power of each household members. Where we assume some separability between private and public goods along with the usual technical assumption on individual utilities we may rewrite private good demands as in this equation here. So private good demands are then just some function of income, preferences and distribution factors. I merely distinguish between these two things, these two forms suggest show in cross-section data where we do not have any price variation. We can't really distinguish between variation and the Pareto weight that is due to the income or household preferences but we do know that these distribution factors are not supposed to enter the household demand function individually and directly. So the unitary model of household behavior assumes that the household behaves as if individual preferences can be aggregated into a stable household preference relation and this is very convenient for economic analysis because this means that when we observe the household and we observe aggregate data we can just use this and go on and all our results would be very accurate. But this also implies a very strong and testable restriction for household behavior namely distribution factor independence. This means that the household demands are not dependent on changes in distribution factors so rather factors that only affect the Pareto weights of the two household members. This is also known sometimes as the income pooling hypothesis and has been overwhelming rejected in empirical studies. Against the collective model of household behavior we assume that individual members have their own preferences and that the outcome of household decisions are Pareto-efficient. So this basically means that the bargaining power of household members can affect household consumption outcomes but only through one dimensional effect on decision weights and this is the Pareto weight. This basically means that for all distribution factors that yield the same Pareto weight we should expect the same effect on household consumption. This provides a cross equation restriction known as the proportionality condition that can be used to test the model. This restriction over here has been known to be necessary and sufficient to identify the collective model of household behavior at least since Pergonion's 1993 paper. So maybe a bit easier way to understand the collective model is as though households behave as if making decisions according to a skewed stage process. In the first stage the household decides what proportion of expenditure is allocated to each member according to the Pareto weight and in the second step it is how is individual demands for private goods determined then by this Pareto weight. So this is basically senior so in this case the effect of the female share and expenditure is basically the change in the Pareto weight due to a change in the distribution factor and this is the effect of the Pareto weight and then the difference in the two shares due to changes in the Pareto weight is then distribution factor invariance. So we would expect, so this is commodity invariance so we would expect this change to be the case for all commodities and then this for distribution factors. So the initial empirical studies used relative incomes as distribution factors but there might be some entogenity there as we might think that a household that has a member that might be more efficient or more productive in employment, the household would just prefer that member to do the work and the other household member to be in the household work. So aid in education difference are similarly problematic so more recent studies tend to look at distribution factors that affect outside opportunities of the spouses or give us an indication of the spouse's wealth before marriage. So there's widespread empirical support for the curriculum model so at least in France, Canada, India, Mexico, I'm also aware of England and a few other countries that has received support just to name a few and there's also two studies by Browning and others that attempt to estimate relative gender preferences for different commodities. It's shown that wives generally have a stronger preference for clothing, personal services and recreations whereas husbands care more about food, alcohol, tobacco and transportation. So on to the econometric model. So we modeled the demand for good eye in terms of the specification one over the other. So the demand for good is dependent on preference factors, household income in this quadratic term and then a quasi quadratic specification of the distribution factors. We use status seemingly unrelated regression estimator to estimate the model parameters and we control for factors such as children in the household, ownership of home or car, the rural or urban status of the household, the race of the household and they will also include variables for the individual household members including their age, education level, the hours work and whether or not they are employed. Our distribution factors in our preferred specification is the local gender share of the husband and of the other local gender share of males in the area and the maternal education share. So local gender share is just basically the unmarried men in the district council over unmarried women in the district council and then the husband and the maternal education share is the male mother's years of education over the sum of both fathers' years of education. If the unitary model is indeed an accurate depiction of the data, we would expect all of these coefficients to be zero. The proportionality condition implies that either equation two or three must be nested within the equation I just showed you. So we re-estimate these equations using the non-narrative seemingly unrelated regression estimator and then we use the likelihood ratio test to test whether or not they are or whether or not they are indeed nested in equation I. So I'm going to focus mainly on equation II due to time. And if this equation is valid, then it's convenient to or perhaps convenient to interpret the results in terms of the sharing rule and individual demands. So we would see that since Lambda's distribution factor independence, this is this variable year, we expected to be equal to the impact of changes in the sharing rule on household demand for the item and then if the effect of distribution factor and the effect of the distribution factor on the sharing rule is given by what is inside the brackets over here. So the data we use, we use wave one of the national income dynamic study and we try to restrict the sample to control for as much variation that we won't necessarily be able to control for by just popping in dummies into the equations. We restrict the household to two adult household members that are different gender either married or co-opening partners between the ages of 25 and 65 and where the household head is male. This is also done because this is what we see mostly in the data. We include households with up to three children since the observation of all of the variables we use restricts the sample greatly. And we use a seven broadly defined consumption categories namely communication, clothing, entertainment, food, medical expenditure, personal care and alcohol and tobacco. Locals general shares then calculated by using the data from the 21st, 2001 census which we then merged by district council to the NED data as this data is available. So this is just some of the summary statistics that I won't go over now. So for the unrestricted model I'm going to go through the preference factors and distribution factors since they are broadly similar or the preference factor is broadly similar to the results we see for the restricted model. So we see broadly that children are correlated with higher food and clothing expenditure, lower entertainment expenditure. We see that households residing in rural areas spend less on lower clothing and personal care. We see that asset ownership is associated with increased expenditure on entertainment, communication, medical and personal care. And we see that households with better education than household heads spend more on medical entertainment and communication. So in terms of the distribution factors we see that the local sex ratio along with its quadratic term and interaction with total income is jointly significant. And we see that the maternal education share and all its interactions also jointly significant along with and all distribution factors are also significant. So we fairly come to reject the unitary model of household behavior. So this is a bit more difficult so I'm going to start here at the bottom. So this is the proportionality condition. So this is the LRT statistics of whether or not equation two that we saw earlier is nested within equation one. So we cannot reject the hypothesis that the collective model of household behavior or we cannot reject the proportionality rule and thus we cannot reject that the collective model of household behavior is accurate in South African data. We see that household maternal education share, local sex ratio and both distribution factors are jointly significant. And then just to give an idea of what's going on here, we see we normalize the seemingly unrelated regression on clothing so that these variables over a year give us an indication of the relative impact of the different variables that affect bargaining power on the outcome. So we would expect communication to be more affected but in the same direction as clothing is affected by the distribution factors. Personal care and medical care is expenditure are also positively correlated and very close to clothing. With NC entertainment and food expenditure are insignificant and we see Elk on the back is negatively correlated with it. Negative and I think this is just above the 10% level of significance. So what for this one what it means is that if husband internal education share and household increases for example we would expect Elk on tobacco expenditure to increase. So yeah this is just going through what I just said and this is the relative impact of the sharing rule on consumption item expenditure. So this maybe gives a more intuitive presentation of the results. So what this graph shows us is we use the mean values of all of the variables including the other distribution factors to draw these graphs and this is normalized on clothing still. So what we see here is as husband internal education share increases we would expect female bargaining power which we assume is the case since most of the variables seem to indicate that because we would normally expect from other literature that is associated with female bargaining power or female preferences is correlated with this. We see a dramatic reduction in bargaining power every year in terms of clothing expenditure and as outside options which we model by local sex ratio increases we see that it slightly female bargaining power also slightly increases. We also see that the model is dramatically almost in favor of male bargaining power. We see a much more dramatic drop from year to year and from year to there. So we cannot really say that this is all causal but we do test some other specifications on these results. So the net dataset is very informative as it gives us some indication of which household member is responsible or if the household identifies which member is responsible for let's say day to day expenditure items and we can show that in the probe that the distribution factors are significantly correlated in the same direction on the probability that the female is the main decision maker on day to day household expenditure. Further the collective model also in the collective model of household behavior distribution factors should affect consumption patterns of married couples but not singles. So what we did is we basically we redid the effect of distribution factors on singles as well. We normalized husband maternal education share to the unit interval and then we just looked at the significance levels and we see that for both single men and single women the distribution factors are not significant in explaining their consumption of items. We then also go on to test other distribution factors so we added a distribution factor in the model to gauge how female bargaining power may be affected and whether the collective model is still valid. So we look at the income difference of the household during childhood, whether the husband's mother worked, marital status, living in a rural area, crown share, hourly wage share, and so on, all the rest. And this is the result we see. So we only, it seems like it got a bit there but I think it's an important one. So what we see here is the only ones that are really significant is the number of young children. So the average partial effect and the total effect of the distribution factor still remains significant although it's not as high as in the previous regression and we do not reject the proportionality test but this is also again at a fairly low level just above the 5% level. We're unable to reject the proportionality hypothesis. We see significance for large wage difference of the spouses and we see significance for the child support grant which is already received by the female household member. So with conclusions, the unitary model of household behavior is rejected for South African households and we see evidence in favour of the collective model. We see that household bargaining power is determined by various factors and it is important that it affects consumption outcomes in an observable way. We see that male household members are estimated to have the strongest relative preference for alcohol, tobacco, then followed by food and entertainment while increases in female bargaining power is associated with increases in communication followed by clothing, personal care and medical care. Yeah, thank you. It's my presentation. It's a bit faster than I thought.


A high-profile figure unimpressed by the government's new advice is Piers Morgan. Morgan's rise to be a credible journalist holding the government to account instead of someone getting into pointless arguments with vegans every morning has been one of the more surprising developments of this coronavirus crisis. He took Tory MP Andrew Bridgen to task this morning on the ambiguities in the government's new social distancing guidelines. Okay, can I go and see my two sons? I haven't seen in 10 weeks. Can I go and see them today and maintain two meter distance? Yes or no? As far as I would be concerned, I do not speak for the government. As long as you maintain social distancing in what you do, that will not allow the... The problem Andrew Bridgen, you see, what you've just said is completely against the new rules, as stated. So there you are, a Conservative Member of Parliament who thinks you know exactly what Boris Johnson has been saying and yet you've just told me to do something I'm not allowed to do. So this is the problem, isn't it? There is no clarity. It's a load of old flannel talking about controlling the virus and you as a leading high-profile Conservative politician haven't got a clue about what these rules actually mean. And you're an MP. You're part of this. So was Andrew Bridgen a performative metropolitan elite pretending to not understand the guidelines or the guidelines genuinely confusing? Well, I'd like to read you very quickly. Two tweets which were tweeted less than two hours apart. One from Sam Coates, who works with Skyline. One from Nick Eardley works for the BBC. Sam Coates, you know, new guidelines. Dominic Rob said you could meet both your parents in the park, no doubt more from government later, right? So that's a pretty big thing. You can meet two people in the park while socially distanced. That is a pretty big statement and a change from all the things that we've been told so far. Less than two hours later, one hour, 20 minutes later, in fact, clarification from UK government. You can meet one person from an outside household in park if you follow social distancing. You cannot meet two such as both parents at the same time applies to England only. So I don't think it is a product of my North London tribalism to go, that is confusing government messaging. And clearly, even, you know, Vox Populi, man of the people, Andrew Bridgen, also finds it confusing.  It can happen to the best of us. The terrible thing is that he's allowed to go out onto national media. Piers Morgan's got a huge platform and mislead the public. Now, if it wasn't for Piers Morgan being on top of it and being able to highlight that confusion, but were it any other broadcaster, dare I say it, were a host on BBC Breakfast? Would the public have ended up with that pretty critical knowledge? I would say no. Did you see that BBC guy? What's his name? Dan something. Yeah, he was saying, I let them on my show and they get to speak and I don't interrupt them. It's like, yeah, that's probably a bad sign. Yeah. And he's like, oh, you don't need to shout. No, you don't need to shout. But so when let's say we get to 250,000 people have died, what are you going to do? Whisper? What are you going to do? Sort of, you know, smile and say, that shouldn't have happened. Perhaps you're talking about a quarter of a million people dying. That's kind of the ballpark figure we're looking at now.  I mean, when's it going to happen as a journalist? Serious question. That's a good point to go to our next clip, actually, which is the rest of that exchange with Piers Morgan, because he really does take Andrew Bridgen to task and it is quite something to witness. Piers, I didn't hear your diatribe against the Prime Minister earlier on. What you've got to remember? What would you say diatribe? Let me explain what my diatribe is. We have, according to the government, own graphs. And you can spin them any way you like. The second worst death toll in the world. And that's just the deaths that we're declaring a 31,000. The real figure, according to any detailed analysis of the ONS figures, is over 55,000 people. It's an absolute national disgrace when you compare it to almost any other country in the world. We've had no testing. Our Chief Deputy Chief Medical Officer said we didn't need testing. It wasn't appropriate. So we stopped doing it, which was a total scandal. We've had no PPE for the NHS frontline workers and care home workers, which is why over 200 of them have died.   So none of us at Navarra Media have been particularly big fans of Piers Morgan. He's normally the kind of guy who actually takes quite right wing talking points against what he calls identity politics and is really trying to stoke a pretty unpleasant culture war. But during this coronavirus crisis, he really has been the TV journalist who is best at holding the government's account. And I suppose I want to go to you, Ash, first, because I know that you've met the guy. You've had quite a few testy exchanges with Piers Morgan. What do you make of his rise to become, I suppose, one of the most credible TV journalists in the country? What's going on? Piers Morgan is a very able man. And when he wants to, he can be incredibly good at being across detail. He's clearly an aggressive questioner. He's a hostile interviewer. You're not going to get a kind of Michael Parkinson, this is your life from him. And on a day to day, that can be really exhausting, because you have to kind of concoct micro events, which can rile him up and get that kind of clip of all TV. But I think that when you give him a matter of international importance, he is capable of really rising to the occasion. And he has done so here. So credit to him. I am not what you would call your archetypical Piers Morgan fan. I would say that I've had more than my fair share of run-ins with him. But credit where credit is due. He is one of the few broadcasters taking their public service remit seriously. Now, I entirely agree with Dan Walker. You don't have to be a kind of shouty interviewer. And we've seen with, you know, interviewers like Andrew Neil, that you can be incredibly thorough, incredibly rigorous, and not have to raise your voice even once. So the question is, why aren't more broadcasters doing it? I would say it's because they've interpreted their role as being one which has an active role to play in minimizing the chance of social unrest during a national crisis. And I think if you have a look at that email, which I think was leaked to the economists from the BBC, where they talked about, you know, broadcasting as a state endeavor, right? And not necessarily a public one. Now, this is nowhere in the BBC's charter. So that indicates quite a profound shift in what they see their role as being. It's not to hold the government to account, but to minimize and control public anger. Aaron, are you now a Piers Morgan stand? Me and Ashnash, we've had sort of behind the scenes debates about Piers Morgan before. I think he's probably in recent years been one of the most corrosive figures in the public sort of debate in this country. But why I've not defended him. That's not fair. I don't think he's party political. And I think he's, he's as big an opportunist as he is a narcissist. And Ash is absolutely right. In a context of a national emergency like this, I think that's actually quite good. And I think she's also right.  He has to find a new story, new angle, something to get, you know, enraged about almost every day. I mean, that's clearly not what life is meant to be like most of the time. However, in a political moment, such as the present one, it's an incredibly useful mindset to have as a journalist. And he's taken risks before. You know, I'm not a fan. He started life out as the bizarre columnist at the sun. So it's really the lowest of the low when it comes to Britain's print media. Maybe, maybe the cartoonist at the Daily Sport was a bit lower. You know, that's debatable. But then he went to the news, the world, I think, briefly, he made his name really at the mirror, where is the editor? And he, of course, famously published what we now know to have been fake photos of Iraqis being tortured by coalition soldiers. In any case, that was actually happening. It was in sort of wide circulation amongst journalistic circles, and he took the risk of publishing it. So I don't think he's ever been wary of making enemies. I don't think he's ever been wary of, you know, breaking with the line that's kind of all pervasive in his industry. He's done that before. He's clearly doing it now. Ash is right. Why isn't it happening more elsewhere? I think it does boil down fundamentally to the fact that BBC has 80% of, you know, radio and TV broadcast news market share in this country. So yeah, there's a little bit of sort of soft entertainment on ITV. There's maybe Channel 4. There's maybe ITN News at 10. The Spatches. But really, there's not much of a space outside the BBC for this kind of journalism. And I do think it's an indictment that the outstanding TV journalist throughout all of this hasn't just been on ITV, but has also not even been on a hard news program. I really think that says something. And we need to take a step back as a country and say, why isn't that both are? We talk about press all the time. We talk about print media all the time.  And I think it's partly about the BBC. It's not to blame the BBC, but clearly in moments like this, having an institution of its size with its market share, with its remit, right, which is there's a national crisis. We need to ensure that people pull together. There's not, you know, public disorder and so on. I think you probably almost certainly do need to have that as an institution. Should it have 80% of news market share? No, I don't think it should. I don't think, again, I don't think that's congruent with the kind of media you would expect in a liberal democracy.


The All Progressive Congress in Baolji State has adopted consensus candidates during its congress in the 212 wards in the state. Mr. Sam Dunga, the chairman-committee on ward congress in the state, disclosed this while addressing stakeholders on Saturday in Baolji. He said the stakeholders of the party have unanimously agreed to adopt the consensus rather than voting system. According to him, the party allowed two systems of election, either by consensus or voting system, and the party opted for consensus. Dunga commended party members for being loyal and conducting themselves peacefully during the congress.


Starting from Naval Air Station Fort Worth Joint Reserve Base, Texas, this is Airman Carissa Menken. Texas Air National Guardsmen from the 136th Airlift Wing practice airdrops for the Falcon Leap exercise on Eindhoven Air Base, Netherlands. The Falcon Leap exercise is in commemoration of the World War II Allied Forces Operation Market Garden. This joint NATO exercise is designed to train interoperability with other nations and practice personnel airdrops at the historic location. Chief Master Sergeant Sean Ross shares his thoughts on the mission. When I first enlisted in the Air Force I wanted to see the world and I got to see the world other times, other countries and the Netherlands was, you have to be checked off my bucket list and the Texas Air Guard brought me here. They expanded on the opportunity to participate in this exercise and the Texas Air Guard is showing strong out here that we know what we're doing and we can fly aircraft and we can drop jumpers. The 136th Airman conducted over 50 drops by the end of the exercise. They helped fly groups of 25-40 U.S. Army airborne paratroopers over the Hechtel's Hided Drop Zone. Major Sean Fitzgerald elaborates on what it means to be on this mission. Yeah so coming on this trip, what it means personally is an incredible opportunity to travel abroad with the Texas Air National Guard. I haven't been in the 181st very long at this point in my career but going to Europe isn't something I really knew the Guard even did even as I was coming into the United States and into Monca. So it's a great opportunity to sharpen some skills that we need to keep ready to go out the door and it's also personally a really cool experience to go travel here. The Falcon Leap exercise is an opportunity for over 13 nationalities and military forces to continue to strengthen international partnerships and participate in NATO's largest technical airborne exercise. Coming from Naval Air Station Fort Worth Joint Reserve Base, Texas, this is Airman Carissa Menken.


Well, one girl's basketball team to reckon with in the Brainerd Lakes area right now is the Pequot Lakes Patriots. The Patriots are ranked number nine in Class 2A with a perfect 5-0 record. The Patriots have beaten everybody by at least 20 points this season. Malacca in town tonight to try their luck against the Patriots. First half action, Pequot Lakes has got one of the top players in the area. That's her right there, Carina Rude, inside defeating the double team. And it's Carly Skog, the Christian Skog, looks like they have a little chemistry. Then Skog, Carly, again seeing the court to Olivia Lane, who finishes nicely. Pequot Lakes led it by 10 at the half. They go on to win. The final score was 70-47. If you've enjoyed this segment of Lakeland News, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution to Lakeland Public Television.


Hello and welcome back to the craft box. My name is Brent and today we are on episode number 40 of completionist crafter today We are crafting the rock candy Which is pretty simple. It is again a pit snack from Jackie over here I don't know how that clicked it, but rock candy is a rank 4 snack gives one Will I believe that's well one agility and two strength So yeah on screen is everything you need to know about crafting it So yeah, that's fun and things and fun and stuff And we are just gonna pop on and actually just give it a craft basic crafting station as with all of these I believe and rock candy boom easy peasy Parchment again really really easy simple vile super duper straightforward and amethyst straightforward. So if you needed a Terrible snack, I mean crafting them ain't that difficult So yeah, that will do us for today. Thank you for treating it to the like and subscribe before we subscribe Press the little bell so you know exactly when I post another video and remember to craft outside the box


What's up team, it is your biggest fan, The Real Casadero and in this video we're exploring the differences between front end and back end web development so you can make an informed decision when you decide what path you want to take when it comes to web development. Do you want to be a front end developer?  Or maybe you will determine that there is really no difference. I just want to build something and I'm going to go out there and learn. So team, let's get to it. Alright team, again I'm your biggest fan, The Real Casadero and if you want this hat check out writecodedrinkcoffee.com where you can find this hat, other hats like it as well as mugs and stickers that are going to keep you motivated and inspired on your journey to becoming the person you were meant to become so you can do the things you were meant to do and live the life you were meant to live. Now let's get into it, the difference between front end and back end development and what's best for you and how to choose. In the early days of websites it all went down like this, someone had some information or something that they wanted to put on the internet and so they put it in a text document and they took that and they put it on a piece of software, they put it on a computer that had a piece of software that just listened for connections on a particular port. That computer is called a web server. A web server is literally just a computer that is connected to the internet 24 hours a day, 7 days a week and it is programmed to send information to other computers that request that information. So in the context of a website when we open up our web browser or our computing device and we type in an address what we're saying is send me some information from this address. Using these complex mechanisms that we have set up right now what will happen is our request will go to a server, that server will look up the name and the index, it will see what the address is and then it will make the connection and that server when it receives that connection it will go oh gotta send this back and what it will do is it will take the html file and it will send it back and it will come back to our browser and we can see it. Whenever we wanted to change something on a web page like maybe we wanted to be a different color or we wanted to log in or log out we would have to send another request to the server and we may have to append some information to that request. Maybe we append a username or we append a password or whatever. When the server receives that request with this special information that information tells the server to send a different type of information back to the client or the requester. Well what happens on the server is some sort of computation is performed. Maybe data has to be taken from a database and that data is sent back to the client or maybe the server performs some sort of calculation and that's sent back or maybe the server goes out to another server that serves up some sort of other information and when it gets that information back it sends it back to the client. Well the problem is is that as servers as more and more people are using the internet and these servers are getting more and more requests things start to slow down and when we send a request to a web server what will happen is is we would see like a blank screen and then the page would load. What we were waiting on is the server to process our request and then send us a response. This is called the request and response cycle. At some point somebody said well in order to let people know that the web page is still working we'll just put an animation here. So we send a request to the server and then the animation starts to play or the server sends back this animation file immediately. Boom sends the animation file and it says I'm going to send the rest of this information when I get it and the browser plays this animation until the server sends this other information that we requested and then the browser goes oh we got a new page and it just reloads the page the animation goes away and we see the new page. Well things became more complex. Now we have social media networks and we have YouTube and we have you know image sharing sites like Imgur and you know we got all these different things out here going on on the internet. Well what would happen is that every time we click the button or we wanted to change something on the website we would have to send another request. So this would be multiple requests. Now we have multiple requests for multiple people 24 hours a day seven days a week and the servers they're getting slower and slower because they have to process all of this information. It was one thing to have 10 people sending 10 requests but now we have 10 people and combined they're all sending a hundred requests and maybe they're all doing this a hundred requests a second. If we get more people this number could grow exponentially and this is where things get real computer science but we're going to back up from that and we're just going to stick to front end development and back end development. So in the beginning a friend and developer just wrote HTML CSS. That's all they did right. They just took some information that somebody had and they put it in a form that a web browser could understand and then they would take that form they would put it on a server and the server just show people that that that information that document that form whatever it is and then we wanted to add functionality to it. But things got slow when we did. So somebody said hey there's got to be a better way. We've got this language called JavaScript that we use to animate things and move things around and this is a programming language just like any other programming language. So why can't we use JavaScript in order to just update certain portions of a web page in that way. We don't have to send an entire web page back every time. We don't have to wait for the server to send us an entire web page every time we request some new information. Typically what would happen is we would send a request to the server and it would gather all of the information that it had already sent before and it would send that back. Well on the server side somebody said well we could cache this information so if we get multiple requests that are exactly the same why don't we just cache this stuff and then we can just send them that page whenever that request comes. So that's where server side caching comes from. But server side caching was still slow because if you changed one thing the whole page would have to change. But somebody said hey we can use JavaScript to do this right. If we break the web page up into a series of objects then we can just manipulate these objects. We can update this piece of data without changing any of this data which means when we send a request to the server the request is smaller and the response that the server has to send back can be smaller. And that's where the current version of front end and back end development that is the genesis of it all. But at the core of it right now today as it stands is everything is pretty similar. All programming languages have pretty much the same mechanism. And now that people are learning to program on the front end so they can do all these complex computations and make games and all these other things those same people can operate on the back end. And as well the people who operate on the back end they can operate on the front end. Now typically it was sort of a one sided deal because what we would have to do is if we were on the front end and we're doing all this complex computation using JavaScript we weren't able to use JavaScript on the server. We would have to use some other programming language like PHP which is the most popular server side programming languages language known to man right now. So we would go off and we will learn PHP and then we would build all these things. And now we have to know HTML CSS JavaScript PHP the server software how to communicate with the database you got to know a bunch of stuff. Well companies understand and people understand this too right we just don't have the resources all the time is that if we have eight different things we have to do if we hire eight different people then we can do all eight of those things in the same amount of time it would take one person to do everything so that's what companies started to do they realized that they can make a lot more money if they just hired more people and had those people work at a faster pace than just one person or maybe one person was doing everything and they were like dude I can't do this anymore right and so they found somebody to help them and this person said hey what I'll do is I'll manage all of the queries coming from the database and I will manage how this information is sent back to the client and they were labeled a back end developer and then the other person said hey I'll focus on how this stuff looks on the screen and looks to the user I'll make sure it works in all the web browsers and that person was called a front end developer and then you had somebody who said hey I'll handle all the graphics I'll make sure all the pictures are pretty and optimized and the way they need to be and that person became a graphic designer and a UX designer that is how it all fits together so if you want to work with images if you want to work with the actual look and have control over the aesthetics in the field of the website then you would start out in UX and then when you wanted to turn that look into something that people could use where they could click buttons and things will move around then you would become a front end developer and if you wanted to actually set up the server and perform all of the programming logic and writing the applications that gather the information or put together whatever it is that the server needs to send back to the user then you would be a back end developer or you like all of these things and you can just do them all there's no reason why you can't do them all this is why web development is so powerful because you have this one set standard right that encompasses the ability to build anything you want HTML CSS JavaScript and now that we have no you can use JavaScript on the back end so your journey can end at JavaScript but if you want it can go into C sharp C plus plus whatever other programming language you want and when you know how all of these things work and how they all fit together and you have a good understanding of it you basically have an understanding of how all software is built it's just that the mechanisms are slightly different so that is the difference between everything team I hope that answers your questions about front end and back end and is able to help you decide which one you want to focus on why you move down your path to becoming the person you want to become and doing the things you want to do so you're able to live the life you want to live and again if you want a hat like this or mug or sticker to keep you inspired while you're on that journey to becoming the person you want to become so you can live the life you want to live the life you deserve to live the life you were meant to live then check out write code drink coffee dot com our team that is it if you have any questions concerns whatever leave a comment below be sure to click the thumbs up on this video so YouTube knows that it was inspirational and helpful and it shows it to other people and if you want more content like this all you got to do is subscribe and you'll be notified if you click the notification bell whenever I upload a new video until next time team it is me the real castadero your biggest fan I'm out here rooting for you and I'll see you in the next video


Well hi, my name is Elise and I'm from Virginia and this is Rico. He is a retired working dog, specifically a landmine detection dog who has just retired from service in Bosnia, Herzegovina. Landmines are horrible weapons of war that affect so many countries represented in this exhibit today, including Bosnia, including Lebanon. I think I see Afghanistan over there. All places that my organization, the Marshall Legacy Institute, has worked to help remove landmines and help countries in post-conflict situations recover from war.


Good morning. Welcome to CMC markets on Friday the 15th of July and this quick look at the week ahead with me Michael Hueson It's looking Pretty much set up for another negative week or a negative week for equity markets this week we've seen a significant amount of volatility yet again and most of this week's Price action has been dominated by rising recession risk global slowdown against the backdrop of rising inflation and the potential for more aggressive central bank action when it comes to containing said inflation So what does that mean for equity markets going forward? well certainly this week's this week's events have been dominated by Events in China we started the week off by concerns that Q3 GDP growth in China was likely to be held back shall we say by a continued stop-start nature of COVID-induced restrictions or lockdowns we found out that the various lockdowns during Q2 Prompted the Chinese economy to contract by 2.6% on a quarterly basis Which meant that on an annualized basis the Chinese economy only grew 0.4% in the second quarter So that essentially means that it's highly unlikely that the Chinese economy will get anywhere close To its 5.5% GDP target for this year Even though we did see a modest improvement in retail sales in June That's largely as a consequence of the big decline as a bounce back From the big declines that we saw in April and May Looking forward This week has been dominated by some really big jumps in not only US CPI Which rose to 9.1% but also in Retail in producer prices US PPI prices which also jumped sharply in June largely driven by big spikes in food and energy prices What was noteworthy though, and it and this did seem to get lost. I think a little bit in the fog of Surging dollar was the fact that core prices in both cases Actually fell back in June even as the headline number pushed higher nonetheless We saw the dollar index move to its highest levels in nearly 20 years the euro dollar move below parity for the first time since 2002 with the prospect that we're likely to see further euro declines Over the course of the next few weeks as we look ahead to this week's this coming weeks European central bank rate decision. We also saw this week a monster hike from the Bank of Canada I had expected the Bank of Canada to be moved by 75 basis points this week um, I think when Officials at the Bank of Canada looked at the US CPI numbers I think there was perhaps a concern that maybe the Fed might be more aggressive when it comes to hiking rates On the 27th of July and consequently the Bank of Canada raised rates by 100 basis points Of course the CPI numbers that we saw out this week from the Federal Reserve Prompted similar concerns that we may see we may see the Federal Reserve go by 100 basis points when they meet Later this month now that expectation Even though the market started to price it in has been tempered somewhat By comments from Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller Who said that he thought the market was getting ahead of itself by pricing in 100 basis points This was the very same policymaker Who only a few weeks ago said the Fed was all in on inflation So he softened his tone a little bit But on the other hand we've got Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed who said that everything is in play For July the 27th so ultimately 100 basis points is in play nonetheless St. Louis Fed President James Bullard Said that he wasn't in favor of 100 basis points move at this time Which helped pull European equity markets and US equity markets off their lows for the week So that's essentially where we are at this point in time. We're still down on the week US bank earnings season is well underway And certainly I think in terms of earnings expectations The rubber is starting to hit the road when it comes to the potential for further earnings downgrades as we look ahead to Goldman Sachs and Netflix and tesla in the coming week so As we look ahead to Next week Let's have a quick look at the various key chart points on the various indices and as we can see from here Not really any change to the range trading that we're seeing on the FTSE 100 fairly decent support In and around this 7000 level we've tested it quite a few times This month without breaking through once again, we've rebounded off it We really bounded off it back here And really I think for pretty much all of this year 7000 has been a pretty solid Solid support aside from a bit of a tick lower in the aftermath of the russian invasion of ukraine It's also been notable this week As markets increasingly price the prospect of a recession has been the big declines that we've seen In commodity prices notably copper and crude oil and What we're also got to be aware of as we look ahead to the send VEC be raising rates next week because that is what is expected albeit by a fairly modest 25 basis points is What effect an economic slowdown will have on events in europe because the weakness of the euro Is coming a real problem for the ECB There's a number of factors that play obviously the shutdown of Nord Stream 1 for maintenance for 10 days And that's due to roll off around about that's due to restart on the 21st of july And there is perhaps a concern that russia might use Any means necessary to perhaps delay the reopening of Nord Stream 1 that's certainly been No, it's certainly not been reflected In the way oil prices have behaved this week or commodity prices in general We've seen a big decline In commodity prices this week in copper this week hit a 20 month low. So Recession risks are rising at the same time As central banks are having to consider Much tighter monetary policy going forward now in Historical terms interest rates are still very very low specifically when you consider where inflation levels are right now the last time Inflation levels were at this sort of level interest rates were well above the headline inflation, right? So when we look ahead to uk inflation later Later in this week We're expecting that to come in Around about 9.2 9.3 percent and the last time inflation was at this sort of level Interest rates were above 10 percent base rates were above 10 percent in the uk economy So there's a significant mismatch in terms of where rates are relative to where headline inflation is So still keeping a fairly decent eye on support down here on the upside Still looking to sell rallies on equity markets. The DAX is looking particularly vulnerable At this point in time we can see that here Fairly solid support at 12400 Still holding But we need to bear in mind that each subsequent rally off 12400 has become shallower Particularly the one that we saw On the 5th of july only got as far as 13 000 and then we're back there again And yes, we have bounced off there this week and we are rebounding But we really now need to have We need to have evidence that that base is in with a break above 13 000 and then move back towards The 50 day moving average to gain some form of confidence that perhaps We could start to see a modest rebound Similar story on the s&p 500 Still very much in a downtrend Pulled off the lows of the day Yesterday by those comments from christopher walla and james bullard where they Rather played down expectations of 100 basis point rate hike In july doesn't mean the fed won't do it But i think that could well be That could well be determined by how strong us retail sales are later today These are due out later this afternoon Just in the aftermath of me recording this video. So if we get a strong number of us retail sales That could give fed policy makers more confidence to be more aggressive when it comes to rate rises and personally, I think 75 basis points is still the It's I think it's still the probably the most probable outcome But certainly 100 basis points There's suddenly suddenly Suddenly started to become Less of a tail risk than it was a week ago and we do really need to be cognizant of that risk Okay, so that's the s&p 500. There's the key resistance 50 day moving average in the trend line resistance from there Similar sort of story when it comes to the nest act 100 we could probably draw a line through here But for me, I think the big level on the nest act still remains very much this peak here at around about 12 230 Which we managed to stay below When we got last week's payrolls numbers hit the tape which to all intents and purposes was a still a fairly decent number Going forward and I think those payrolls numbers the strong cpi numbers Do make the prospect of 100 basis points that much more probable than was the case a week ago But given the fact that some of the two of the most hawkish FOMC members Have played down expectations of 100 basis points and the fed goes into blackout Over the course of the next few days. I think they're going to want to avoid a situation That we saw in the lead-up to the previous meeting where everyone was pretty much comfortable with the idea with 50 We got some fairly weak We've got some fairly weak numbers going coming into that meeting and the fed suddenly started to brief We've got hot cpi report and the fed suddenly started to brief That They wanted to do 75 basis points while they're in blackout. I don't think they'll want to play that scenario out again so I think by pairing back Expectations of 100 basis points walla and bullard are basically saying look 75 is fine On top of the 75 at the previous meeting. Let's just see where the data goes As we look towards jackson hole in august and obviously the next meeting in september So looking looking at euro dollar now because the main the main topic for this coming week Is going to be not only the ecb rate decision. We're also going to be looking at uk cpi The weakness of the pound against the dollar and whether or not a strong cpi uk cpi number Will increase the probability the bank of england will do 50 basis points when they meet in early august But let's start with the ecb. We're now We've now broken below parity We hit a lot of 99 50 It keeps us very much on course now for My medium term target for euro dollar of 96 20 if we look at the weekly chart And these projections that I laid out at the end of april for further weakness in euro dollar We've now hit my next target of parity We now want to see a move extend lower towards 96 20 and A medium term target for this measured move That we projected all the way back in april or may So what could be the catalyst for an even weaker euro? Well, there's certainly plenty of factors at play. There's a political instability in italy the ability of the ecb When they raise rates this week and whether it be 25 or 50 basis points to manage bond spreads between italy and german bond yields now Either the ecb need to do something inflation is already at a record 21.9 percent in estonia is at 19.3 percent in lithuania the Baltic states are getting absolutely battered While countries like france are seeing 5.8 percent and the only reason that french inflation is so low Is because the french government has absorbed pretty much All of the fuel price increases by nationalizing edf energy and forcing edf not to price those increases on so The big the ecb's biggest problem is not so much that it's powerless to mitigate current levels of inflation it's Are they able to do it without causing further instability in eurozone bond markets? particularly between italy and german bond yields There's growing pessimism that the ecb will be able to deliver on anything on bond buying That would keep it within the boundaries of what is legal legal under the ecb capital key And there's been talk of omt outright monetary transactions That was something that was laid out by mario dragui the last time this topic was discussed But this is going to be very very difficult sell because it requires Conditionality and certainly german officials are very much of the opinion that if they go down the omt route Then italy has to abide by the conditionality for omt so Lagarde's got a really difficult tightrope to navigate which he's got to do more than Talk tough about an anti fragmentation tool Because another fudge sandwich won't do the trick when it comes to Convincing markets that the ecb has an answer to increasing political risk in italy dragui's Potential resignation What sort of italian government will we get over the course of the next few days and weeks? So, you know, we're we're navigating very tricky political waters going forward So certainly i'm of the opinion that euro dollar can continue to go lower sadly I think cable will continue to suffer as well on the back of the stronger dollar Hopefully by not as much But certainly i think the uk unemployment data the uk wages data and the cpi numbers um, we'll add a little bit To the bank of england's thought processes when they meet in early august looking at cpi that came in at nine point one percent in may Given the big jump that we saw in us cpi in june You would expect to see something more Than a forecast of nine point two percent uk cpi for june There is a distinct possibility that we could overshoot on that and move ever closer to 10 Maybe to around about nine point five What we do know is that a lot of the increase in headline cpi is now starting to manifest itself not only in higher Fuel prices that's quite clear when you look at the prices of the pump, but also in food prices as well When you get a situation where Tesco's is putting security tags on lurpak butter You know, you're in the realms of significant food price Inflation and that's essentially where we are So I think if we see a very strong cpi number This week Then the bank of england needs to go and do something that it's never ever done before And that's raise interest rates in august by 50 basis points 5050 basis points or more Now the discussion is about getting inflation under control And the gdp numbers that we saw out of the uk early this week Are encouraging in that context 0.5 percent Expansion in may now obviously that is not likely to be sustained But ultimately I think it's Really a question of what's the least worst option and with the pound now even lower Then it was a month ago the bank of england needs to get a grip Of its mandate Which is to keep inflation on target at around about 2 percent Which means it needs to be more aggressive when it comes to raising rates and shake itself Out of its current groupthink narrative wages looking again at fairly Resilient numbers for the three months to may We should start to hopefully see a move higher in the numbers Excluding bonuses which are set at 4.2 Including bonuses they rose by 6.8 percent in april That's likely to those are likely to be maintained In and around current levels Given employers are under much more pressure now to pay Their staff more and obviously we've got rail strikes coming up. I had to endure rail strikes already as more and more workers look for wage increases of more than 5 percent Certainly, I think that's what we're starting to see and we're starting to see average raise average wage increases coming in between five And seven percent over the course of the next few months and that in itself Is likely to mean that the Bank of England will be forced to do more So still remain on course for 115 in cable while we're below 120 40 50 euro sterling Trended lower Started to wedge back a little bit higher now As we head towards the ECB next week could see further strength towards around about 85 30 40 But overall we're still in the range that we've been in For the past few months and I don't think that is likely to change going forward. So ECB Euro sterling still very much a range trade. We've also got final EU CPI for june And that the flash number there rose to 8.6 percent up from 8.1 in may that's likely to be maintained at 8.6 percent We've also got some so and with the ECB Meeting this week I think it'll be particularly interesting as to whether or not not only whether of course they they raise rates by 25 basis points In the coming week, but what their guidance is for september 25. Is it done deal? Well, they do 50 I would be surprised if they do But never rule it out But if they do do 50 then they've got to manage the fallout when it comes to Bond yields and that could be a slightly trickier conundrum to address One thing I did forget to mention is uk retail sales the june Thank you at the end of the week Could well see a little bit of a bank holiday bounce And then after the poor number that we saw in May a decline of 0.5 percent there could see a little bit of a platinum jubilee rebound with sales of With sales of food giving the number a little bit of a positive kick higher As we come to the end of q2 in terms of Earnings numbers there's going to be three and i'm going to pay particular attention to this week Just quickly bringing the tesla Tesla graph there we go starting with Royal mail got royal mail coming out those shares are up But they're very very low levels at the moment expectations around royal mail pretty low pretty low It's their first quarter numbers There are concerns about strike action There's already been a work to rule on the part of managers um, and that's currently starting today between the 15th and the 22nd of july And there'll be a complete strike on the 20th to 22nd Of july so this action will serve to cause further disruption To royal mail activities and you can certainly see In this chart here that there is potential for further declines. Nonetheless Royal mail management still feel fairly confident that they can Generate a combined operating profit of 623 million for the new fiscal year So I think it'll be interesting to see whether or not they maintain that guidance Given the current backdrop Obviously higher costs when it comes to energy prices, but also higher costs when it comes to potential salaries And potential redundancies. We've also got our goldman sacks continuing the uk bank earnings theme Big big level. I think the goldman sacks here around about 273 coincides with these these these lows here And those previous peaks there. So that's a bit of a level there for goldman sacks jp morgan this week Um disappointed as did morgan stanley. We've got city group later today They're likely to potentially Pay into similar picture. What was notable was that jp morgan actually stopped their buyback program as a result of concerns about increasing Loan loss present loan loss provisions against a backdrop of rising inflation. So Goldman sacks doesn't have a big retail operation But certainly I think some of the m&a revenues investment bank revenues that we saw big declines There on the back of investment banks that could also be a theme for goldman sacks when they release their numbers on monday Netflix Netflix I don't think it's too fine a point to say Netflix is in big trouble when it comes to What's going to be expected for this week's numbers Certainly, if you look look back at where it was in november The implosion in the share price has been quite something and you can really see where the various profit warnings The earnings numbers came out. So the big question here, I think is What would constitute an upside surprise? Have we hit peak netflix? obviously, I think the emergence of companies like disney plus or disney with with their disney plus offering amazon Paramount plus now Is come to the fore is making things an awful lot more difficult And I think when you look at the amount of money that's being spent amazon spending On a new lord of the ring series called ring of power paramount plus um, it's it's also got a strong catalogue with A new star trek series strange new worlds as well as a new season of star trek new season of star trek discovery Which used to be on netflix and now season four Is no longer on netflix neither of seasons one to three the now on paramount plus so Even though netflix brought forward The latest season of stranger things I think a big win for netflix would be if They didn't lose subscribers in q2. They're certainly expecting to they lost 200 000 customers In q1 against an expectation. They were gained two and a half million And netflix has said it expects to lose another two million subscribers in q2 um Downgrading that from an expectation of plus 2.4 million so hopefully It's load the bar low enough that they Are actual they are actually able to beat expectations The revenues netflix has said it expects to grow its revenues by about 10 percent year over year And can have an operating margin of 19 to 20 percent given current Trends when it comes to inflation This does appear optimistic And the stronger dollar isn't helping the dollar is in now even stronger than it was When we had a profit warning here and we had a profit warning here now Now Netflix is producing Films and tv in more than 50 countries three hours six most popular tv seasons Using non-english language titles. Yeah, it refuses to hedge its us expo us You know, it's fx exposure Why would you not do that when you could potentially make a billion dollars more in revenue by doing such a thing? It makes no sense. Let's talk about A lower cost advertising model. It's teamed up with microsoft To deliver that the big risk with that it risks cannibalizing its higher value subscription model so Netflix big test As we look ahead to the upcoming week can it start to Mitigate some of the losses unpropped and prompt to rebound back above 200 dollars We'll soon find out on the 19th of july tesla Okay, let's get shot of that That appears to have found a base just above 600 dollars The biggest concern that I have about tesla is is elon musk's mind In the game when it comes to tesla Because most of the narrative around elon musk over the past quarter has been over the twitter acquisition, which now looks like it's not going to happen so Tesla's been trading sideways pretty much for the past four or five weeks The disruption in china Is certainly impacted and will have impacted the number of cars that it has been able to deliver Over the past quarter If we look at maintenance shutdowns, we've also seen in berlin As well as obviously shanghai Those those maintenance shutdown shutdowns have also coincided with covid shutdowns so Having delivered a total of nine hundred and thirty six thousand vehicles in 2021 There were high hopes that tesla would be able to get above the million deliveries level in this current fiscal year Now both q1 and q2 deliveries have been disrupted due to supply chain disruptions Which means that it could struggle to hit that target in q1 tesca tesca tesla In q1 tesla Was able to deliver around about three hundred and ten thousand new vehicles In q2 that's fallen back to two hundred and fifty four thousand and obviously in china april Output was one thousand five hundred and twelve with zero exports and in june Tesla managed to deliver seventy eight thousand nine hundred and six so in april Production virtually ground to a halt in china So that will obviously affected its q2 numbers So i think in terms of how it's looking the q3 and q4 If they were able to get production back up to over three hundred thousand A quarter then Obviously one million remains very much in the ballpark Expectations are for profits to come in at a dollar eighty one cents a share But obviously i think the big key support level on tesla is anywhere around these sorts of levels here Six hundred and twenty dollars. So i'm keeping an eye on that when tesla comes to release its numbers later this week If we look at um quickly look at brent crude just as we're tidying things up Some fairly decent support in and around the 200 day moving average We've seen a big sell-off If we break the 200 day moving average then we could well see further declines in brent crude Now obviously if we do see further declines in brent crude That will be because the market perceives that we're going to see a very significant slowdown Going forward nowhere is that better illustrated in This copper chart Where we're starting to see inflationary pressures in commodity prices more broadly Start to diminish quite sharply 20 months low For copper prices. So keep an eye On base metals keep an eye on precious metals more importantly Keep an eye on Agricultural commodities because we've also seen steep falls in the price of corn and wheat And oats and that is playing out in the cmc markets Commodities index which has seen some fairly decent falls Since the peaks back in may and june and again That is likely to have a dilutive effect when it comes to inflation repressions Okay, so ladies and gentlemen, that is very much it For me for this week. Once again, thank you very much for listening I hope you all have a great weekend and are able to Cope with the upcoming heatwave on monday and tuesday until the same time same place next week. Thank you very much for listening It's michael hueson talking to you from cmc markets