Okay, then hello everybody, and I guess if everybody's seated, then I guess we can start. So my name is Felix Hötner. I want to talk today about a little bit of OVN and running it in scale and burning it not only once, but actually quite a lot of times. Just to give you a short overview of what we are actually currently running. We are running OpenStackEnvironment with 550 hypervisors at a moment. Another one that's not running OVN yet, where we will steal a few more hypervisors from in the future. All of these are supported by 9 network or gateway nodes, depending on how you want to name them. That actually hosts all the external traffic of OVN. So we are not using some kind of DVR setup, but we are centralizing all ingress and egress traffic for floating IPs and external networks. All of that is running on OpenStack Yoga and OVN 2212, which is quite recent, so was released just last December. And OVN 3.1, which I think is the latest release that's actually there. A little bit of overview for the workload. It's currently just 6,000 VMs. Yeah, I know the description said it's over 1,000, but it's not over 1,000. Yeah, a few thousand networks, a few thousand routers. Actually 16,000 ports. We were quite confused when we actually saw the number ourselves. But there's a lot of ports into all of these networks for metadata, for router ports, multiple ones. Actually quite a lot of security groups and security group rules. A lot of these are the referencing each other. What we measured as peak currently was 15 gigabits of external traffic running through these nine network nodes. So I want to give you a short overview of the architecture of actually our OVN, our Neutron setup. Just to have a little bit of the feel of what I want to talk about now. The Neutron API actually connects to the northbound database of OVN. The northbound database of OVN is basically the OVN representation of what we have in Neutron. So it's basically a translation layer. There's also the definition of switches, which is networks, there's routers, and ports, and all of the things that you all know just in a different representation so that OVN can work with it. And we are then, let's say, OpenStake agnostic. The next part is North D. North D is then a translation layer. It translates from the high-level description of I am a router, I am a switch, I have a virtual port, for example, that runs Keeble-FD, and translates that into flows and port bindings. These are then stored in the southbound database. So the southbound database is a quite bit lower-level representation, and it's actually the main translation layer that OVN is actually having. Below the southbound database, there's relays. In this case, you are basically saving your southbound from dying all the time. We tried it without relays, and too well if you have a lot of client connections. What relays actually do is they hold a replica of the southbound database data, so clients can ask the relays instead of the southbound database. So it's basically distributing load and distributing client queries, which are the main cause of issues for the databases. Then on each hypervisor or on each network node, you see the OVN controller. The OVN controller then talks to the southbound database. He's like, this is a representation of what I need to install now, and translates to the even lower-level implementation that's running then in OpenVSwitch stored in a very local OVSTB. That's then talking to the kernel to actually install flows and to actually process packets. So we have a lot of translation layers that go from very abstract concepts like routers and switches to very detailed flows and very detailed implementations. There's also the OVN metadata agent that hosts the metadata service that all the VMs consume for cloud init, which was previously centralized with other L3 or DHCP agents, but is now actually distributed and running on each individual compute node. And just to make it easier for everybody, I wanted to have short dictionary regarding neutral and OVN because naming are quite a little bit different. For example, networks are logical switches. Subnets actually don't have a representation in OVN at all. They are represented by IPs existing with different configurations at different locations, but there's no subnet resource in itself. Routers are routers. Ports are actually distributed between switch ports and router ports, although you normally can easily find a one-to-one representation. And security groups and security group rules are translated to a quite similar equivalent. So I'm not sure if everybody has actually had a chance to take a look at flows and what OVN is doing there, but let's take a look at a flow. This is taken from the southbound database and it's the very, very rough version of what a router does. You see the individual tables in here. Open flow or the flow idea itself uses different tables. Your packet comes in at a table zero and is matched according to a set of rules. And whatever rule it matches, this action will take action and there might be the next action which says go to the next table or jump to a different table or something like that. So the very first table is actually things you all normally have in your network interface, which just said, if I get a packet, is it actually sent to my MAC address or is it sent to somewhere else? If it's not sent to my MAC address, I can completely drop it because it's most probably not something I can actually do anything about. And then we jump, if this condition does to it, we actually jump to the next table. I skipped a few or quite a lot of these tables because there's a lot of magic happening for very different things like fragmentation of packets like load balancing, like lookups and stuff like that. And I just wanted to keep it a lot simpler. So we didn't jump to table three. Table three is doing the very first check regarding routing. So, for example, if our time to live of the IP packet is too low, we send the time to live exceeded and we can stop the processing there because we don't actually care what's going on. Also, if we actually receive a ping, we can answer here. So the ping actually doesn't go through the routing pipeline. It's actually stopped very early in the routing pipeline process. All other packets just continue. And then table 13, table 17, now they're actually doing both the whole routing magic. Table 13 is saying, like, this IP address that is the destination IP, is it one of the destination IPs of another interface than the one that's coming in? If yes, I can decrement the time to live, I can change the source MAC address, and I can set a port where I want to send the thing out. If it gets sent to some IP where I have no idea where to send it to, I just drop the packet because I can't do anything about it. And table 17 is then actually the outlook up for the destination. So I need to see what's the destination IP. Is it a next-top router? Do I need to look up the IP or the MAC address of the router I need to send it now to? Or do I need to look up the MAC address of, for example, the VM or something like that? I look it up, I set it to my packet. If I don't know it, I send it up request, which is not nice because then actually I drop the packet, I just send it up request and we'll learn this for later. So I hope the source will send another packet. And for the next round, I then hopefully have an answer to this up request and can actually forward this packet. And you would think it might work without issues, but I guess we all know that that's not how it's happening. There's a lot and a lot of different and probably quite detailed issues that we saw, some are fixed. I'll go to a little bit more detail over them later. Some are not fixed actually or are not easy to fix because they have more issue on a maybe conceptual level. One thing is router distribution doing failover. That's something we saw just recently, which basically causes routers to pile up on single network nodes and the other network nodes going quite empty, causing this one network node to basically process all of the traffic. One of the main issues that we saw is OVSTB server clusters that are not too stable or not too healthy. All of the OVN implementation is basically a single-threaded solution or multiple single-threaded solutions. So you can quite easily overload your OVSTB server, so it doesn't answer hotbeats recently enough for all other nodes. So the other nodes think it's down. They vote for a new leader of their cluster and the cluster breaks apart a little. That's not nice. OVN controllers also take a few seconds to reconcile. So there is some incremental logic. So if there's a change, they try to recompute only a little bit of information, but there are some things where they actually need to recompute all of the logic they have in them and that can take a few seconds. Most of the time, that's not a big issue, but for example, Kiebel-FD failovers need such a recompute. And if I then need to wait three or four seconds, then my Kiebel-FD failover might happen fast in the VM, but from a network perspective, it's delayed by a few seconds. And what we saw also is a lot of edge cases regarding SSL connections in the OVSTB clients. So we are using TLS connections everywhere, but there's some error handling in very weird edge cases that we saw. What we also found is actually a kernel bug in the Linux kernel where you could kill the entire system if you delete a network namespace. I'll show you that in the end. And what's also there is a MAC binding table. So I told you earlier, OVNsense are requested if it doesn't know the MAC address, the auto destination MAC address for a given packet. These are then stored in the MAC binding table in the softbound database, and they, per default, don't have a time to live. They just stay there until the router that owns them is deleted. So we quite easily went up to like 500,000 entries into the table and we couldn't get rid of them easily. There's a feature called MAC binding aging, where these entries are removed after a given time, but they are not actively renewed. So the MAC binding is actually deleted. The next packet that comes in triggers a new output request, but the packet itself is dropped again. So you have a traffic outlet. That's something that's actually actively worked on upstream to get rid of this not so ideal behavior. So all of that now sounded, let's say, not that great, but let's compare it to the OBS ML2 plugin. And I'll do that in a few different topics. Let's take a look at maintenance. We previously had issues regarding restarting of L3 agents, because if they restart, they need to synchronize and create network name spaces, keep a lot of the processes and all of that stuff, which at least for us took 45 to 60 minutes. You need to take that number with quite a bit of care, because that's our environment that's running OpenStack Queens. So I guess there are some improvements, but I guess we are not getting to the point of OVN where we are quite consistently below minute. HA routers, I guess you probably all know that Paine are using Keeble-FD for failover. You have the HCP agents that use the DNS mask processes. So your network nodes have quite a few processes if you have a lot of routers. That's quite nice in OVN, because it's all flows. So you don't have the issue that you have thousands of processes running on that system that might need CPU time at exactly the same time. And failover on OVN is handled using BFD, so we are a lot more from our feeling precise there. For us, the now stable logic for OVS was we migrate all agents away from the L3 or the HCP agents.  For OVN, we can't just stop the OVN controller because that healthily stops these things and doesn't actually burn the whole environment. If you take a look at what happens at overload. So if you have a network node and it processes more traffic than it can handle, it needs more CPU time than it has or something like that. For OVS, we had it a few times and we spend a few hours on recovery each time, because if one of the network nodes gets overloaded, it stops answering to keep a live D randomly. And other network nodes then take over these keep a live D processes, they get masters. But this one node isn't consistently dead. So it sends some requests some VRP announcements out as well, and these keep a live D processes start to flap. So one node can easily bring down other ones just with the load of keep a live D fail over all the time. For OVN, we have never observed such an issue like that. So a node might fail, but then this one node fails. You can try to reschedule routers to other nodes, so maybe you can isolate the issue or something like that. But we don't cascade a failure to somewhere else. And if we take a look at control plane outages that looks currently a little bit like if it's completely down, ML2 OVS looks a little more stable, but if that's actually the case, I'm not so sure. Both of them obviously prevent updates. If the control plane is down, nothing, you can change anything. What is still working OVS is a failure of keep a live D if the user's keep a live D instances. That doesn't work in OVN, but for cases where keep a live other packets to that keep a live D IP go over router because that needs the control plane for updates. But we don't have that issue regarding things going out of thing that maybe you also saw for ML2 OVS where just randomly a given agent doesn't know the network nodes it needs to send traffic to or broadcast packets to or whatever else and which randomly fixes itself after some time. So let's go into a little bit more detailed thing of what actually broke. One thing that we saw quite early, if you just restart an OVN controller, it takes a little bit of time or quite a long time until the neutron RP actually sees it as up. That's a fix that's already merged because that was just a missing, let's say, notification there. We saw quite a lot of issues with the OVN metadata agent if you have a lot of, or a lot of ports it needs to monitor because it basically asks the southbound database for all ports. Not only the ports of the node it's currently running on, but all ports. And since it's maybe not the most performant pattern implementation of the world, it might take like a few minutes or a long time to actually start up. We use monitoring conditions now for that. So we just ask the southbound database to report on the local node because we don't care about anything else. The thing I mentioned earlier regarding OVN routers are not load patterns when failing over to other nodes. We're still taking a look at that. And there's some issue regarding neutron bumping revision numbers. So neutron thinking some port in OVN is out of sync with the neutron database and it resynchronizes that every five minutes and then still thinks it's out of sync. But since that's just for virtual ports, it doesn't hurt us that much. As you can see, OVN broke more. For example, one thing that's also already fixed is IPv6 failover for external IPs because there was no announcement. So jobs were not sent so physical switches didn't know they now need to send traffic to a different physical switch port. If you want to use that, OVN 2212, that that fix is included. A few fixes for the Python OVSTB package regarding handling of broken connections where we could easily get to 100% of CPU time trying to reconnect on a socket that's actually closed. One thing that was actually denial of service from the outside was a package to a router port to the outside router port so if it's TCP soon, it was actually resubmitted. So the router tried to route the packet to itself and decremented the TTL and tried to route it to itself, decremented the TTL and did that until the TTL expired. And this just causes a lot of load on OVN because it doesn't know it can just drop the packet, it needs to process it. The recalculation of OVN controller in NorthD that's, I guess, a constant struggle there just because single-threaded processes and NorthD currently doesn't have some incremental sync that's literally now being implemented. So changes can just take a long time to propagate which is especially annoying for failure of people with user instances, otherwise you don't notice it too much. Next thing is OVSTB cluster stability. I'll give you a few tips for that right after the slide. And what's also quite ugly is there's a resubmit limit in OVS so if OVS needs to do too many actions and packets are processed in too many actions, then OVS is actually dropping the packet because it just can't handle it and wants to prevent an infinite loop there. There's also quite a performance if OVS actually needs to do that all the time for each individual packet and there we need to actually take a look at each individual instance of that and determine appropriate behavior. So if you now want to run an OVN at scale, let's take a look at a northbound database there. You see the three northbound cluster members so OVS DB is using a raft cluster for that which works quite nice and you have one leader in this raft cluster, you have two followers. One thing to do is if you want to take backups, don't take the backup at a leader because the leader needs to process our writes and it needs to write a snapshot before you can trigger backup which is not that great because it then fails over. If you want to use TLS, which I can strongly recommend, don't do TLS in OVS DB. So put some kind of reverse proxy in front that's terminating the TLS connection just to get the load down even further. So all we want to do here is load on the OVS DBs and the neutral API or NorthD can then talk to that TLS termination processes so some kind of reverse proxy and then use that to talk to the northbound database. For the southbound it actually makes sense to go even further. You have the bottom part which is actually the same as before but only NorthD connects there and at the top you see relays. Then OVVN are the idea to replicate the content of the database and to just serve read requests by forwarding write requests. Most of part of OVN deployment are read requests so you can get quite substantial benefits from that. And don't just go with one or two relays, go with a lot of relays. Relays are cheap. The worst case, consume one CPU core, they consume maybe one or two gigabytes of memory. So we, for example, run 24 of these. Just, it's there, use it. And point everything that's not NorthD to these. So neutral API, OVN controller, the OVN metadata agent, actually maybe not yet neutral API because it doesn't work but as a patch for that, that makes it work. A lot of client libraries actually try to connect to the leader of the rough cluster either explicitly or because they forgot to actually say I can connect to anything. And, yeah, that breaks relays because relays are never leader of the rough cluster. Regarding timeouts, OVN has a lot of timeout settings between the different processors. Set them to large numbers, like one or two minutes is a seemingly completely fine value. It doesn't feel good from my perspective but there's some improvements that are needed in order to actually reliably set them to lower values. Otherwise, you have random things that are disconnecting and that doesn't help availability either. Regarding versions, there are some LTS releases. I'm not sure why they exist. The amount of benefits and the amount of changes and performance gains in your versions are so large. Don't use LTS. There are two things. If you are on an external network where our consumers or other people or whatever, somebody else is actually active because OVN tries to do a lot of things. For example, if you get GR packets from the outside because of some kind of failover but you actually don't care about these which might be a lot of cases because maybe the MAC address doesn't even change, it just propagates a new port. And you from an OVN perspective just say it's this one port, it doesn't change too much, it's just relevant for maybe the physical switch infrastructure in between. And there's a new setting, regarding broadcast ops to our routers. You can disable that. Then OVN will just drop these packets instead of trying to send it to more routers than it can actually handle because that's one of these instances where we reach that resubmit limit. Also, if you have a bunch of hosts outside there then set this MAC binding age threshold so that the MAC binding table is clear. Otherwise also you will end up with the amount of MAC bindings that will never expire. If there's the all static in your environment then there's no benefit in setting the setting but if they are a little volatile then I guess there's a lot of benefit in getting rid of these. Okay, and I promised a kernel bug. There's a kernel bug. We actually had an issue in the start-up script of our metadata agent. So what we did is let's take a short look first how that whole thing works. You have a VM on a host that has a tap device in the main network namespace of the host which is then connected to the virtual port of the VM. The tap device is connected to OBS. Also for the metadata agent there's a VETH pair. One of that is in the main network namespace another one is in the metadata network namespace with an HA proxy and all that magic runs. And if the VM now sends a packet to the metadata agent it goes through the kernel ideally with the accelerated data path. What we observed is if you delete that metadata agent networking namespace. Not the port, not the HA proxy process but really the namespace while it's still active. And the VM in the exact same time sends a packet to there, you can get a kernel to N. Because the kernel then tries to send a packet to a VATH port that actually doesn't exist anymore or is in the process of being decommissioned. And there's a nice infinite loop that can trigger in that case. Basically bringing your hose down because a lot of processes depend on things they're actually finishing. There's a fix for that in kernel 6.1 on UR that we built. Okay. And that's it from my side. Are there any questions? We are currently in the process of building our upgrade path for OVN. So I guess that's a session for the next summit. Any more questions? Yeah, we started that with yoga. And probably would now go for newer open stack versions since that's already there. There's some incompatible changes that might happen between the OVN and Neutron that both sides need to be aware about. And so it makes sense to be quite current with both of these. There was a question back there but I don't know from whom. We are currently taking a look at offloading that work from the service basically by doing hardware offloading on the network card to push these flows from OVS and from the kernel data path to the network card. But with bonding and VLANs and stuff like that on that documentation doesn't exist. And if you want to know more, ask Luca back there. We used it also in the past with OVS. So we didn't want to take a closer look at that again. But maybe that makes sense with using BGP but we wanted to keep all this let's say external connectivity, the multiple external networks. We have just a few locations so that these few locations get all the horribleness of stretched networks and all that fun stuff but all the other nodes are fine and don't need to care about that issue. So we wanted to centralize the problem. What we do if we do maintenance on a compute node is we completely evacuate all VMs from that before that and afterwards you can quite easily stop the OVN controller. There's nothing that I know that you need to take special action on. So what we do if we do maintenance on a compute node is we completely evacuate all VMs from that before that and afterwards you can quite easily stop the OVN controller. That you need to take special action on. What we found interesting is there's upcall statistics from OBS so AS has an internal metrics tracker that tracks various things that are happening. That's sometimes quite a good indication what it tries to do if it doesn't respond. Otherwise taking a look at mega flows, taking a look at what packets are actually hitting the kernel space, what are packets are hitting the user space that's quite interesting because if you see a lot of packets hitting the user space it can quite easily overwhelm the open V-switch on the user space side and therefore overwhelm the kernel side. The kernel will then start dropping packets. That's one of the bigger issues. What we see is that around 99% of all packets are handled in the kernel. If that goes below 95% you have no chance to actually handle the user space. Currently it's also rather experienced. You can have these messages regarding it exceeds the planned time of a second for such a good computation and if it exceeds that regularly then I would use that value and give it a lot of buffer on top of it maybe double or triple it and use that as a timeout value. One thing that I also heard but that was yesterday in another session there's the neutron agent heartbeat set this to a large value because that triggers just a lot of changes on the OBN side. We already said before we started that whole OBN endeavour to one hour and we just copied that certain and gladly we did. If there are no more questions then I guess we are done. Thanks very much.


This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim sawness and dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire com where today We are getting you set for the 2020 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs that is coming up this Saturday Yes, it's in September and not May this year. We're gonna break it all down with Megan Devine She's gonna give her thoughts on this year's field her general horse racing process and more and also her favorite picks for the Kentucky Derby my name is Jim sawness I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power ink comm Ed Derby day coming up on Saturday Overlapping with the NBA playoffs so it feels like May if we get those two at the same time We can just convince ourselves. That's the case, right? That's right. I mean, I just want to I just want to do this podcast like Marcus smart shot three pointers last night He went nuts in the fourth quarter. He he hit one and I was like, huh, that's interesting I wonder if his three-point shooting percentage has gotten better. You look up the numbers and yeah, it's pretty good He hits like 34 35% which is still below NBA average. He hits another one And I'm telling my nine-year-old is like, yeah Well, you know, he's still below average NBA shooter Yeah, he hits three more in a row So he had five in a row and like by the end like me and my nine-year-old are both like cheering every time So I was fun little small and my son was like, yeah, well, it's working, right? I was like, no, we got to talk about small sample size, buddy Now my heat check lean fully into it lean into the you know, if it's if it ain't broke Just keep on firing away and see what happens. That's right So I want to be like Marcus smart, but hopefully I'm a you know, not a below average podcast co-op I hope we shoot better than 35% like, you know, just a general like maybe we don't I don't know But like I would hope we do 35% okay, right? 35% is good, but the NBA average is you know, yeah 36 36 something you can get to 38% on our on our podcast efficiency percentage I'll feel pretty good about that But it's nice to have NBA back obviously last time we recorded the podcast and like a couple hours later the NBA went on strike. So Weird how quickly things changed so we're talking about this here today I don't know what news is gonna break immediately after we record this podcast like is the big 10 Not really gonna be back by the time we're done talking here today I feel like you know what the way things are going you never know like I'm trying to predict What the next big thing is it's gonna ruin the timeliness of our podcast happens every week it seems like Yeah, it does. I don't know I mean, there's so much going on in the world when you have the president talking to the big 10 commissioner Yeah, and not the president of the university president Yeah, you just never know what is gonna happen I mean from what I've read and I mean it seems like a November start date You know, it's kind of interesting like play right through the winter Find some indoor arenas where you can do that. I I don't know that kind of makes a lot of sense to me Maybe so we'll see.  Come on Just just for a couple months. Just go run runs great You can wear a mask we'll play and pick up basketball pretty easily just do that. Yeah, I'm not sure that's a good idea But they weren't weren't weren't doing that. I mean, it's just it's just the duration of contact. You're around so many rights so Well, yeah, I think college the colleges need to get past this next couple weeks Hopefully maybe a few of them will actually keep their kids on campus for a while Yeah, and then you know, we can see how a college football season goes for the six conferences that have decided to play This fall and then maybe the Big Ten and Pac-12 will Follow suit in November. I don't know. I No idea what's gonna happen again like I'm not opposed to extending football season Just like from a viewer perspective like if we can get two rose bowls out of this There are worse things to me than getting that. So I think that Whatever they decide hopefully it's based on medical evidence versus public pressure You know, whatever they decide if they do it based on that. I am good with it I would just like them to pick something because the constant back and forth in decision is is a little maddening I think that's that's where I'm at right now Yeah, for sure, but I mean, I mean, there's there's no certainty in the world right now. So yeah, that's true So got a change as you get an additional information We're gonna talk about that as well with Megan Divine. She is our guest for today previewing the Kentucky Derby from Churchill Bounds This is I think the second time we've had an on-site person be a doctor Eric eager from the Super Bowl Now we got Megan Divine from Churchill Bounds So she will join us here on the podcast to preview the 2020 Kentucky Derby You can find Megan on Twitter at Megan Divine TV She is a horse racing hosting reporter for TVG and also the horse racing happy hour Podcast which is also on the radio in Louisville. We can find a podcast forum on Apple There is a link to the podcast in the show notes here for today on number fire calm If you want to find that and get additional thoughts from Megan there We're gonna preview Saturday's Kentucky Derby talk about the impact of the schedule change on the horses the way that may impact betting Whether you should go it is the law as a favorite or potentially have a little bit more fun with a longer shot as well Megan also owns Her own company is called vid horse. You can find them on Twitter at vid horse and pretty cool videos of like Like kind of like go-pros on horses So I don't know if that's the best way to describe it But you can find on Twitter at vid horse to check that out and find Megan on Twitter at Megan Divine TV We'll get back in the NFL next week to get you said for week number one But if you want some more NFL thoughts last week We had Chris Ray bond of the action network on to discuss player props and transitioning Into betting from playing fantasy football Aaron shots joined us from football outsiders to talk about the football Outsiders football almanac and also their DVO a projections talk about some playoff odds And we had Orlando Scandrick on the impact of the lack of pre-season games I'm what we could see early on in the season So make sure you check those out by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts and check out Ray bond check out shots and check out Orlando Scandrick as well to get their thoughts And also while you're there if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well football is back And Fandall is giving you a new way to play fantasy football this season with its best ball contests Unlike standard season-long fantasy football where you have to constantly make changes to your starting lineup and roster You only have to focus on one thing and one thing only the draft All you have to do is draft a 20 player team and you're done each week your top scoring players Automatically start and will count toward your season total the team with the most points at the end of the season wins No setting your lineup no waivers no trades just draft It is that easy and it's the easiest way to play season-long fantasy football more details as fandall.com or download the fandall app today eligibility restrictions apply Let's talk to Megan divine now to get us said for the 2020 kentucky derby once again She is a horse racing hosting reporter for tvg you could find her on the horse racing happy hour podcasts Well and find her on twitter at Megan divine tv Let's head up to church hill downs now and get you set for the 2020 kentucky derby Covering the present Let's bring Megan divine into covering the spread to get us set for the 2020 kentucky derby and she's coming live from church hill downs. So Megan. This is awesome. How are you doing today? Hey guys, I'm doing really well Enjoying my time here in kentucky under the twin spires that I've got a little safe office that I'm in by myself So I that's why i'm not wearing a mask while we're on this together But uh, it's been really fun to be here to watch all the derby horses and oaks horses train, of course waiting up to the uh first saturday in september, which feels really weird to say Yeah, it's strange to have this new schedule that we have here and the way that things have worked out What has it been like at church hill downs? Like is how different is the atmosphere in 2020 versus all the other years? Well, one of the things that I I love and I know many people do as well Is just that everyone on the back stretch during derby week I mean it's just alive with with spirit and personality and excitement and you know You've got all sorts of different tents with vendors and news stations and and everything you can imagine and so It's tough to not have that. I know the locals really really appreciate the mornings here as does anybody else That's able to make it in so it's been a little bit of a bummer to not have that It's eerily quiet in that way and certainly there's a lot of different protocols that you have to go through to To get through and everything's been really safe here at church hill downs And you know, I I think everybody's happy so far with given the conditions But uh, still i'm blessed to be one of the ones that gets to lay eyes on the horses in the mornings as we prepare for the derby Absolutely, and what does that do for you? Like, you know, how much insight do you get from actually being at the track and being around everyone? As far as formulating your analysis on things Tons tons. I mean my background is as a rider. So I grew up riding horses since the age of seven Mostly jumpers the jumping horses, but I also galloped race horses for a little while and I've been around them for quite a few years So for me, you obviously have to dig into the stats as you do with the past performances Or any other supplemental tools that you use for your handicapping? But in my opinion, there's Nothing that beats actually putting your eyes on a horse and be able to see how they're doing Many horses don't handle different tracks well So you could have a horse that's very successful say in california That doesn't ship over to the midwest or new york can do as well So to see how they're covering the actual surface that they're going to race on is really important And some horses just don't travel that well.  So it's really important I think to to get that analysis and to be able to see it and especially with You know tiz the law being the heavy favorite You have to try to find some reason to come up with another horse to like if you're looking to make money So I think it's really really important to see how they're working over the surface Do you feel like you have an edge as far as an analysis perspective because your background is as a rider? So I feel like a lot of people have backgrounds in horse riding, but maybe not that specific background Do you feel like that gives you an advantage given the additional background you have on all this? Oh, yeah, absolutely big advantage No, it is it's a big advantage and it's something that as an analyst as well on tvg You know I try to To relay that to the public and really try to explain it as well It's one of those things that's really hard to put into words because you do have to have that experience to a certain extent And to understand and try to develop your eye But that's something that you can't read off of the paper and it does take time to kind of see it Just like any other sport any other expert in any sport So it helps me and I try to help the public out with it too And if there's something that I can see like a little intricacy of say a horse's ears You know moving a certain way and listening to things or a ride or maybe having pressure on one rain More so than an other for a horse that's trying to to get out in a workout or something that happens in a race All of that stuff you don't necessarily see and you can't read it So to have somebody like myself or be able to talk to jockeys or trainers or you know horsemen if you will Um, I think it's really important. So I love bringing that to the table as an analyst So you said you've been doing this since you were seven. What initially got you into horse racing? I have no idea. I My family I'm I'm very much like the black sheep a lot of people in racing their families were in it You know their father was the trainer or whatever else No one in my family had anything to do with horses and I'm from new york Like I'm from long island. Where would I grow up with that ain't grow up in the rolling bluegrass hills or anything So, um, I don't know. I just always loved it as a kid I loved the pony rides the carousels and my mom finally got me Riding lessons and I started at like a little rinky-dink barn That was nearby to where I grew up So I just always had an affinity for it was bit by the bug really early and and had that carry me through Ended up in in louisville, kentucky to go to college of all places from new york I think my college guidance counselor was like, where are you going and do they wear shoes? I don't know So, uh, it was it was cool to be here and be in horse country and that kind of took off from there with my career That's awesome So maybe you told us a lot about how you look at the horses to to get an edge and definitely want to ask you about that In terms of the kentucky derby a little bit later But tell us a little bit about how you use past results in your analysis as well Yeah, definitely. Um, I mean, that's that's the first thing that you want to go to you have to see Of course, what are the conditions of the race? We call it. So is it a long race a short race? You know a dirt race a turf race those four things synthetic as well Surfaces it all is very different. You can think of it in the same way as people Like an olympic sprinter is going to look a lot different than somebody that's going to run the new york marathon So if if you can kind of see, okay, what are we looking at here? And what should I look for in the horses? And then you dig into the past performances for have they gone this distance before class is really important as well We have different levels of racing So to be able to understand that and know if they're moving up to tougher competition or maybe You know dropping down to easier competition that might give them an edge is is very helpful And then pace of the race too horses like to You know have certain spots sometimes so horses like to be on the front end or maybe a horse like zanyada If you know that name, you know to come from behind and make a really exciting finish It all is very dependent on on what you have in the makeup of each race So a race that has a lot of front speed you look for a horse that's going to come from off the pace Or if the horse if the race rather doesn't have a lot of Early speed then the horses that come from behind are not going to have as much of a chance to catch up on them Because there'll be soft fraction soft times on the front end with horses just saving their energy So those I think are the first things that I look at when I'm looking at the forum And that's all right there for you to read and whatever you used to get past performances So that's pretty cool. So I mean I usually Can I think about it in terms of milers because like there's milers that are fast and then there's milers that are strong And so like these horses that are like going to come up late in the race. They're kind of like the strength horses They're going to tend to have more endurance. Is that kind of the way to think about it? Yeah, I think so It's just they I think lend them give themselves a little bit more vulnerability sometimes because they are so dependent On the front end horses if they're going to be fast or not But they're definitely strong horses that are able to have quick acceleration at the end of a race And save their energy until then and still be competitive as well I mean they still have to be in touch with the rest of the field can't come from completely off the screen some do but not often But yeah, I you could think of it in the way of strength and speed So you were talking about all the different factors that are at play Let's talk specifically about this weekend for the kentucky derby For people who haven't maybe bet on the kentucky derby before which factors should they be considering that are specific to church hill downs Yeah, um, some people like to say that the church hill downs is a surface that horses who have run here before Usually and have done well do well here. I think belmont is a lot like that So getting to know the different tracks if you can And understanding The conditions around those I guess if any of those tracks kind of have that bias if you will Um is important, but you know here. It's just in this situation. That's can anybody beat his the law? And if so, you know, how are you going to get that? Or even if you're playing like exact as or whatever it is That you're playing who you're going to use underneath in this field of 18 horses that we have so I I don't know it's This race in particular is one of those where I'm kind of relying on my eye and and you're going to look at the Class of the past performances of horses to see who might be able to to follow it up But here at church hill downs, you know distance is important Obviously, usually this is the race the first time that three-year-old horses ever go a mile and a quarter in their lives So there's a lot of factors that one the distance that they have to cover and two the roaring crowd that you have here Well for one, we don't have a crowd because we don't have any fans But two some of these horses have already run a mile and quarter including tins the law Which gives them that much more credibility as the favorite So you got to try to think, you know, which horses can handle the the really big Track really big turns and the long distance that we have at church hill Excellent. How about the timing of the derby? Obviously, that's usually supposed to be in may with covid It's in september. Is there like a weather factor that you're thinking about? I was nervous about it because living here for quite a few years in college I mean, it can be very very hot around this time of year But same thing goes in derby in may rather for the derby. It can be hot then too Hopefully we've had a lot of rain so far this week But I think the forecast is supposed to be pretty good for oaks in derby day So fingers crossed we'll see it's rained the past couple of years In fact, I think the last time that there was sunshine was 2015 when american faro won every other year since then There's been a quite a bit of rain So i'm a little sick and tired of wearing like my raincoat outfit I'd like to have like a nice dress and a fascinator and you know, like nice shoes to wear That hasn't been the case of of late, but uh, hopefully the rain will will hold off there But I think it's more so just the timing for the horses I mean trainers peak these athletes at certain points of the year and with everything that got shut down earlier You know in march and all that there were some racetracks that just closed completely These horses had nowhere to run and and they want to run every day They're just they are ready to go think of any gym rat that you know, like if they skip a day You don't want to be around them So, um, you know, it was hard for these trainers to peak these horses at the right time and to move around their schedule too And now especially you've had maybe some horses that have had more races Leading up to the Kentucky Derby then they would have if it was in May Which for some is a positive if they were slower developers Maybe they were a late foal as we call them born later in the spring It could be on the the beneficial side But for other horses they You know may have kind of lost some of that form that they had going into the early part of their three-year-old year So it really just depends on the individual but it's it's certainly going to make it interesting Yeah, absolutely So a lot of factors to consider there and it adds a little bit of additional uncertainty And we're going to talk about Tiz the law here in just one second But first they did the draw for the posts on Tuesday and as someone who knows very little about horse racing I don't know what that does like I don't know the impact of that So just broadly what impact does that have and were there any horses whose opinion you had changed as a result of the draw? Yes, yes, and yes Typically one thing you have to know is that this year for the very first time ever They're actually using a gate that has 20 stalls. It's one gate with 20 stalls in years past They have had two gates They've had the main gate that they use here at Churchill Downs and the auxiliary gate And the reason why that is important is because there's a little bit of like a Gap between the stalls where the two gates meet in the middle and also it had to be pushed over a bit So the horse in the one hole was basically screwed because if you're staring out the gate of the one hole The one stall in the gate you were staring at the rail you had to take a right and then get straight to go forward So it was a really big disadvantage for the horse that drew all the way on the inside Because they had to be a speed horse you have no choice in that way But to get up and go get out of the way get your positioning because you're going to hit that rail So now as we have this 20 horse gate the one hole I think is actually it ends up being where the three posts was in the other gate I read an interview that that had been talking about it. I haven't actually walked through it myself yet I'm hoping to do that later, but uh, but we'll see but so now we don't have that factor but also The post positions for some of these horses are really important like authentic For example is in all the way on the outside in fact the top three favorites I think are all the way on the outside 15 or 16 17 and 18 But authentic is a horse that's previously had some issues at the starting gate So I forget if it was two races back. I think it was two races back. He actually broke to the outside So horses have to always turn left. He broke and went right So he had to do a lot of extra work to to hustle up and get back in touch with the field Get competitive positioning. So the one concern with a horse like that is now He's all the way on the outside way out there and hole number 18 And if he does that again if he's up to his old quirks, that's really going to hurt him in the long run Now at least at derby they have the long stretch of Churchill downs to get that position before they go into the first turn So maybe that will help him and and uh, he's got johnny Velasquez aboard who's a very strong rider a hall of famer rider So we're hoping that he doesn't do that again But it is a little bit of a concern one just being so wide but two the antics that he's shown before Awesome. So it is the law one the belmont and the traveler stakes and is uh, Is a pretty heavy favorite at four to five. Um, are those I think keeping shorter Oh, is it okay? Yeah Well, what is your take on on the favorite and maybe a dog that can Pull off the upset. Yeah, for sure. Um, I don't know about dog racing but as far as horses go Is is definitely a valid favorite. He's done everything right so far I think you have to give him a lot of credit as well that he's been able to sustain this long of a campaign So like I was saying earlier, you know, he's had to really be very specific with the races that he's going in The training peaking at the right time and also again, he's the only horse That's one at this distance of a mile and a quarter, which is really tough to do I mean that is a classic distance horses run that and may never run that distance again after the kentucky derby So it's not something that we commonly see so it is a bit of a specialist type Um, so the fact that he's already been successful over it albeit at another racetrack I think does give him a lot of credit and he's just been training like a monster But you know, again, this has been a longer year for him So it's also very possible that maybe he's a little tired after all of that And you might want to look towards a new shooter But that's I think just the the wishful gambler in me Um, the degenerate hoping for a little bit more of a price But I don't know he he's definitely a valid favorite And I think the way you're probably going to have to do it is key him in some bets And then try to get some value underneath if you can And who are you keying in on as far as horses You might turn to if you're going to pair them with his law Which ones stand out as being values outside of that? Sure, I think the second and third favorites are are definitely included in the conversation and that is authentic who You know, I just don't know what he's going to do It's really interesting because I've actually spoken to quite a few of the connections with my company vid horse We produce a lot of the content for some of his owners My race horse and spend their farms So even the breeder of authentic said from the beginning when he was a baby He was a little bit immature mentally and I feel like that's still been the case as he's grown up into an adult So I think we still will see him continue to get better as time goes on But um for now I I'm really hoping that he's on his a game as we're looking for saturday And the fact that he has broken from the gate before and you know done what he's done Gives me a little bit of pause But I still think he's an absolutely gorgeous horse as long as he can keep his mind on the task at hand Because he's gotten a little distracted in the past and I see him to focus And then honorary p it's it's been a little bit of a Arrivalry between those two horses in california Authentic was doing a little better and then honorary p was able to beat him in a race in which authentic had a really not so great trip and then I think authentic came back and won the haskell after that so he's proven himself again But also money mike smith hall of famer, of course A great jockey has chosen to stay with honorary p So do you read into that as well and think well, I mean he rode both horses authentic and honorary p He went with honorary p Maybe you give that horse a little bit more of a look and he has looked fantastic over the track I mean his stride is just absolutely massive He covers so so much crowd and he's a gorgeous looking almost black horse with a lot of white on him as well So he's very flashy So those two horses are absolutely included in the conversation, but I mean, what's the derby if not without a long shot You have to play a long shot, right? So for a few of those, I think king gear moe has been a little bit of the buzz horse here and he's so He's so obscure in so many ways because he comes from a little bit of a I guess a Lower tier track if you will where he's had his big races before None of his connections really speak very much english victor martinez is the the owner of him and He's they've just been so excited to be here and so blessed and so he's been exciting because he's actually performed really well On the racetrack. He's been here for a couple weeks now. He's been running He's working out over the track and so he's got the local works and he's been like putting in times that are unbelievable He's so strong the rider can barely hold him back So i'm hoping he didn't peak like a couple weeks ago as he's been doing that But he's one that'll be a big price for you and I think max player is at way too big of a price on the morning line And an enforcement rate or enforceable rather has impressed me too So those horses i'm kind of looking at and continuing to make my opinion on as we go throughout the week But if you're looking for a couple long shots, I mean why not throw a few bucks down across the board on some of those Yeah kinky airmo is 20 to 1 at tvg authentic 10 to 1 Honor ap is 11 to 2 megan like let's say we have a listener out there who was just looking to place one bet They want to bet one bet on a winner Where would you go would you go tiz the law you go with the favorite or based on the odds You're gonna go for one of those longer horses you were just talking about Oh man, I mean do they want to make any money or do they just want to cash a ticket? They just want to win say they want to make some money. Let's make them some money We're gonna make them some money. I think you got to go with Honor ap Okay, I've changed my opinion on that too on my podcast the horse racing happy hour I've kind of besmirched honor ap a little bit as we've gone along But now seeing him in person. I'm like, wait a minute. Wait a minute I think I might actually like him so the guys are gonna give me a hard time about that because I've swapped sides now but um Well, it's not bad to swap sides if you are doing so because you got additional information Like we should always be willing to change our opinions if we get additional information and that's what you've got in here The one thing though, that's really difficult in horse racing And I think you guys kind of touched on this before is like what angles do you use when you're handicapping races? Well, usually I have kind of the same foundational tools that I will use when I'm looking at a race But with races like this like the Kentucky derby any of the triple crown races the breeders cup races I think you can't help but be like well But maybe if this happens and you kind of go outside of your You know what you know and your initial gut feeling what you use every single day when i'm covering these races on tvg And that can be that can be a little bit detrimental sometimes because it's just like information overload And you end up going in different directions Whereas if you would have just stuck to your handicapping that you had done all along in the first place You you know probably wouldn't have done better, but I don't know it can go either way It's really a 50-50 split on that but it is something to keep in mind go with your gut instinct And I mean even for people that are just casual fans if you like a name you like a color You like a jockey whatever as beginners luck very much like at the blackjack table it exists in horse racing So take a shot So one last question before we let you go here Are there any other things you could see in the next couple of days that could influence the way you're viewing things? Is there additional information you're still seeking out that may dictate the way you view things for saturday? yeah, I think The way that horses continue to handle the racetrack like this morning was a little bit rainy So it was tough to really get a good gauge on how they are traveling over the surface So when it dries out and you can see what the surface might look like a little bit more As it will in the afternoon when we run the actual race will be helpful But there also are some that have shipped in We're over the track for the first time and are a little bit intimidated by the big size of this track There's a lot for them to look at it's all different. It's all new And so I'd like to see those horses any of those that kind of show signs of being a little bit antsy They have to calm down and really you know get their game faces honestly move forward and of course any equipment changes if a horse Is running off in the mornings and you know, maybe does a little too much It's very very particular. We're trying to peak these horses So there's a lot of stress for them for these horsemen around at the trainers the jockeys, etc owners But I'll be looking for hopefully, you know, nothing goes wrong with anybody even in just the slightest way And obviously looking for the comfort level of some of the horses that are a little more keyed up authentic to You know be a bit better as they go around the track Well, that is megan divine make sure you find her on twitter at megan divine tv also check her out on tvg And in the horse racing happy hour podcast megan have fun this weekend I know like that can get lost in it like but just have some fun and we appreciate you taking time to talk to us today Absolutely anytime. Good luck guys. Thank you Covering the future Big thank you once again to megan divine for swinging by live from church hill downs to get a set for the 2020 kentucky derby once again a link to her podcast the Horse racing happy hour is in the show notes over on numberfire.com You can also just search on google and check her out on tvg as well on twitter at megan divine and ed You're a runner So I feel like megan's analogy about how horses are like runners probably, you know related to you pretty well Yeah, there's definitely something I can relate to I run but i'm not i'm not a miler anymore But I do enjoy watching professional milers and you know, these guys are all fast and have a lot of endurance more than Probably anyone listening to this show You know and me more than me What's that more than me? I can guarantee you that But but there's a lot of differences, right? So the world record holder he shone l gruge like he was always a strength runner, right? So he would start picking up the pace 600 meters out Yeah, 600 meters out where a lot of other guys You know in the championship races a lot of times like, you know, a lot of people wait and sit and kick And so those are like the speedrunners I think i'm mistakenly said during the show like someone who's going to come up at the end and try to out sprint everyone Is going to be one that's going to be more reliant on speed someone who's going to go a little bit earlier is Is a little bit more reliant on strength so Yeah, I think that makes it a little bit more interesting to me I like watching races and yeah There's no reason that can't be a horse instead of a human being Absolutely if i'm going to go all out for nascar i might as well go all out for horse racing too and uh I always try to watch the derby just because like it is I find it very interesting But like we said to megan i know nothing about any of this stuff So like it's nice to hear someone who very much knows what they're talking about explain it to me in a way that i can actually understand So, uh, definitely appreciate megan putting things in terms that i can understand and a good conversation Hopefully you can uh have some fun betting that you can go to tvg Bet it right there have some fun at that you can find megan there as well So a big thank you once again to megan. Let's move into covering the future and ed the pick report Is it out publicly? I've consumed it. So I don't know if I got a little sneak peak But is it available publicly or yeah? Okay, okay You can grab it at the power rank dot info It's a url that will take you to a place where you can grab it It's got a pdf got an audio file and got a data file Which is where all the value is because that's has all the data on on anfo core backs for the season and who you can expect to You know be it more or less turnover crown and I was I was excited because like you you not only gave like the application I'm not going to give away all the details of it obviously but like you gave The the the math analysis of it, but then also related directly to 2020 In ways that validated my priors that I've always felt kind of shameful of like I always feel like I've been Too low on karson wenz. I don't know like If you compare me to philly people philly people are very weird about karson wenz So I don't know where I compare relative to them but like I always was lower on karson wenz and consensus and Your numbers were interesting on him So i'm not going to give away the details of the pick report But what did you want to discuss today for covering the future based on that research? Well, I am I am going to give away some details. Okay Because uh, because I think it's pretty interesting. So karson wenz has been up and down in his nfl career You know the former number two pick was brilliant in 2017 It was the second year in the league. He led the eagles to an 11 and two start before he got injured uh nick foals finished the job as as the eagles won the super bowl The eagles offense hasn't been as good since it's been a little bit more of a struggle and in particular 2019 was pretty difficult As wenz had to deal with a lot of receiver injuries and finally got knocked out unfortunately in that playoff game But despite these struggles the one thing karson wenz has been really good at is interception prevention So the last three years the average entrance nfl interception rate has been 2.4 And wenz has been better every year in 2017. He was at 1.6 percent 2018. It was 1.7 percent 2019 was 1.1 The question is whether this is going to continue Well, we really can't make any definitive statements based on his past interception rate So when you for nfl quarterbacks Last year's interception rate only explains about seven percent of the variance in interception rate this year So it's just not sticky from year to year So to do a better job predicting interceptions you need to dig deeper into the data And the important statistic you need to look at is is past as defended So in the nfl play by play they're on an incomplete pass There's a defender there and this defender has either gotten his hand on a ball. So maybe it's a lineman that sticks his hand up Or maybe it's a Defensive back that gives his hand on the ball And these plays also include when a defender hits a receiver and jars the ball loose so so basically These are plays in which the the quarterback is putting the ball in a dangerous situation So for wence, this is the most important fact A quarterback that puts balls in dangerous positions the more he does that the more likely he is to throw interceptions okay, so Interceptions happen on about 21 percent of bad balls. So that's like interceptions plus passes defended And the key thing is that this rate this rate of Picks to bad balls. It regresses strongly the mean every year like it's not sticky It is at all there is zero correlation from year to year And this is really bad for Carson wence So in 2019 about 10 and a half percent of his dangerous balls ended up as intersections, right? So that's how he was at 1.1 percent And you know the eagles weren't exactly lighting it on fire Anyway, so you're going to see very strong regression to the mean That number should be very closer to 20 percent. The data suggests he's going to throw a lot more picks in 2020 Is this the reason to go eagles under nine wins? I Yeah, I haven't I haven't pulled the trigger yet, but like there's a lot of things pointing in that direction I think it's going to be a tough season For Carson wence I always try to look for things that kind of support What the data says when you when we talked earlier this morning and you you expressed your you know your Your lack of faith in wence That was something that I took to support this analysis She'll kappadia has covered the eagles for the athletic he writes He doesn't he covers the entire nfl now, but in his eagles preview this year he wrote about You know wence is never going to be the most accurate quarterback. I think that's also consistent with this analysis He does tend to put a reasonable number of balls in dangerous positions It's certainly not terrible. You know, he's not like james winston but The rate at which he puts balls in bad positions is about nfl average Which means you don't expect to see such a great interception rate heading forward And I think the thing that's interesting here is whenever you talk about Carson wence and this is it depends on who you're talking to But most people will talk about the wide receiver injuries and that's justified because the receiver injuries were very important last year However, it's not just the the the luck that he had on the bad balls like you are loading to but also They faced a really easy schedule from a past defense perspective like Carson wence His overall efficiency numbers were not good, but that was despite facing I believe it was the second easiest schedule from a past defense perspective in the entire league This is based on weighted drop backs. So like You know weighted drop backs. It's pretty straightforward I think that sam darnold is the only guy who had an easier schedule based on weighted drop backs Which is also kind of scary when we're discussing sam darnold than the jets But wence facing easy schedule. So yes, he will eventually have jaylen rager now rager sounds like he's gonna miss a couple of weeks He has dish on jackson Alshon jeffreel eventually come back But when you add in potential regression on the bad balls, you add in I would assume a tougher schedule for this year despite the fact that byron jones is no longer in the nfc east and You add in andre diller going down at left tackle that's with jason peter's back there. There's no brand in brooks Ragers heard already alshon as mentioned is banged up There are a lot of reasons to still be skeptical of wence even though the wide receiver play should in theory be better than it was last year so I I think some people are too harsh on karson wence They will criticize him for like non football reasons like based on really weird reports But I think that there are legitimate football reasons to still be skeptical of this team Despite the fact that their receivers just kind of inherently have to be better than what they were last year Yeah, and any tends to to fumble on sacks more than The average nfc were back to yeah, that does not help So that was actually part of the journey. I was actually digging pretty hard into fumbles on sacks for a while. Yeah, um and uh The research didn't go like I really wanted it to So anyways a story for another day And so then I got into the interception stuff and I was really happy with the way that turned out What I was actually talking to shio and yeah, he was like, oh, yeah, he's really bad with fumbles, too And I was like, oh, well, let me look at that. Yeah Um, yeah, so in in terms of tunnel prevention, it could be a very rough year for for karson wence Yeah, uh, shio capati was just on uh, robert maize's podcast He has made a podcast over at the the athletic now and they were talking about the nse So if you want more information on that I check that out But also check out the pig report over at the power rank now posted ed. It was a great listen I definitely appreciate you letting me check that out But uh, it's a worthwhile endeavor for people who want to better understand regression and better understand Predictiveness Instead so they can sometimes be pretty hard to predict for my cover in the future I'm gonna talk about baseball because basically every time we have discussed baseball on this podcast I've been talking up the chicago white socks and right now they're tied for first in the al central So feeling good about that. They were like plus 340 to win the al central like two weeks ago But I also think now is a good time to get a piece of the minnesota twins Given where markets currently stand the twins are one and a half games out in the al central They're behind bolstercago and cleveland and a part of that is like you predicted They're offense regressed in a major way the past few weeks that cluster luck Was no longer in their favor for a bit in that stretch But injuries also played a massive role in the twins downturn They've had all of josh donaldson mitch garver byron buxton jaco de reese rich hill and Homer bailey all missed time due to injuries this year. That is 33 percent of their starting lineup And 60 percent of their starting rotation buxton came back last night got a couple of well hit hits Donaldson is supposed to return tonight And that's not just good for the offense like buxton on offense could go either way Donaldson should be good for offense But both buxton and donaldson are elite level defensive players as well The starting rotation is still going to be an issue because hill doesn't seem totally right odorese and bailey are still going to be hurt for a bit But the pitching has been good Even with those guys barely playing so far this year They are ninth in all of baseball in skill interactive era for the active roster They are fourth among american league teams and now they get buxton and donaldson back And the defensive number is not accounted for in skill interactive era. So now they're getting healthier I would expect the performance for the twins to tick back up here They are currently plus 750 to win the american league pennants with the new playoff system Fangrath still has the twins making the playoffs 94.8 percent of the time They have them winning the world series 6.2 percent of the time and 13.4 percent to win the american league And the implied odds at plus 750 or 11.8 percent So a little bit of value there, but I think even beyond that if they can get those starters back Things could look even better keep donaldson healthy keep bucks and healthy The upside in this team is pretty good. So although the white sox have been my team from a betting perspective this year I do think this is a prime opportunity To buy ups and stock of the minnesota twins at plus 750 to win the american league this year And what are your numbers saying about the slumping minnesota twins? Well, I'm kind of mad at them because I had a lot of bets on them against detroit Who I still don't think is a very good baseball team Weekend and that didn't really work out like I would have liked But um, yeah, I mean minnesota, you know, when you just look at this year's day They're kind of near the middle of the pack. Obviously the injuries are You know a big part of that It's interesting to see the white sox are are very much near the top of the pack Third you look at base runs or expected runs Adjusted for who you've played Uh behind I mean the dodgers are first, which is not particularly surprising sandy. It was actually second. So which is surprising Tampa Bay fourth, so Um, yeah, I know I'll be interested you see what happens with the twins.  I'm not sure that's why they lost to the tigers Uh over the series. I think the tigers just Probably played some of the best baseball of the year But uh, yeah, I started to see where that division head is going forward Whenever the twins don't play well, it's because of Byron buxton not being in the lineup. That is my My definitive theory as this devout Hopeless lost fan boy of Byron buxton is that if they didn't play well and he wasn't in the lineup Correlation causation, baby. We're just cashing it out right there My lone like regret with the white sox is that I didn't do anything beyond the division bets. I have y'all montcala to win mvp That's probably not going to happen, but I wish I had gone a little bit harder with them But we'll still take it So I get to I get to be happy as a twins fan that the twins win I get to be happy as a financial person if the white sox wins So uh hedging the bets for sure That is all the time that we have for today here on covering the spread big Thank you once again to megan divine for swinging by and breaking down the 2020 kentucky derby once again If you want to bet that check out tv g find megan on twitter at megan divine tv and check out Her work on tv g and also on the horse racing happy hour podcast ed What is going on for you mostly? I mean something just kind of been slammed. Are you like sleeping now with the pick report being out? Yeah, it's mostly the pick report. You can check it out at the power right dot info That's a URL that will take you to a place where you can check out the description and and and purchase it Yeah, it's been pretty hectic the last The last week just getting everything together. Yeah, um, you know It's not the longest report in the world, but it also does have 10 figures in it, which I which I really think do Uh kind of make the report just to see everything visually and how different things are um, there's actually uh My favorite one is there's a figure about the distribution of players in terms of skill versus luck for free throw shooting in the nba and and and This is something in which there's like literally no luck Yeah at all and the distribution is starkly different from Perhaps like the distribution of nfl quarterbacks when you look at like interceptions Uh divided by dangerous passes, which I talked about a little bit earlier So which is is looks, you know, very Gaussian and there's very little skill in that so Um, anyways, there's a ton of figures in there. That's what I've been doing Uh, I'll have something different to talk about next week. We'll get some sleep Uh, get some rest and uh, hope people go to the power rank dot info to check out the pick report Also find ed on twitter at the power rank. I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fangirl podcast network at fangirl podcast big Thank you to calvin theobald our video producer for on the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck If you're betting the kentucky derby this weekend over at tvg or whatever he else may be betting Playoffs nfl week one next week college football this weekend. It's a good time to be a sports fan We'll talk to you all again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network


What's up, everyone? It's your girl Kenzie here from Layton Sports Cards, and I am ripping a personal here for CN Thank you so much CN for your order. Let's see what we can get here for you. See a color blast. That would be crazy, huh? City and soccer blasts Soccer color blasts would be a good die cut coming up here. First up, we've got a Rodrigo Ben Kenton Ben Tancre for your what? That is out of 105 And we've got a blue that's a sick color match for Everton on Dross Townsend four out of 20 love the blue color match on that one Everton Then we've got tunnel vision England and Declan rice nice hit there 67 of 99 on the Declan rice Then we've got atomic patch of Benjamin Hendricks Hendricks patch there lightning strike auto for Argentina a one-fourth That is out of 149 And we've got red volcanic for Ashton Villa. This is to 15 John mckinn To 15 on the Red Volcanic What a box here for you CN And last but not least we've got Aurora on the purple Tierra Davidson nine of 75 for the women's USA team Nice on the purple All right, see and that'll do it for your box. Thanks again for hopping in and we'll get this right out to you


What's the names that took us higher, right? Netflix took us higher, okay? NVIDIA, right? Took us higher. Look at the reversal on Friday on NVIDIA. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Happy Sunday and welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader dot com. We can update show, hope everybody is doing well. So let's talk about the tape. So Thursday night's video. First of all, let me just say, the market's been on fire, right? Everybody knows that. Nasdaq up 3%, everybody knows that. The market is absolutely incredible. A lot of traders, definitely trading with blinders on. And I get it, right? I get it. A lot of you guys who are new to the markets the first two, three years, you feel invincible right now. You feel like you can walk on water. Again, I felt exactly the same way in 99 and 2000 when the internet craze was coming. Everything was great. I couldn't imagine another way that the market could act the way it was acting. And one day you woke up and gravity kicked in and then a lot of events, again, which is another topic for another day, started leading up to 9-11. Now we see 9-11 hit and it was a completely different market that happened here. We're kind of in a euphoria market. We've been in a euphoria market now for the last three, four weeks.  And again, there's a lot of really great feeling in the marketplace. Just the world itself, considering what the world is actually still recovering from. We're just still in the midst of the whole COVID crisis. But the one thing that, and again, I will say what life has taught me is experience is the absolute best teacher. Time is going to always make you better. Like I've always said in many videos, better parents, you'll be a better husband, better wife, better friend, better brother, better sister, and definitely a better trader. And we learn from our experiences, okay? Experiences are just not there if you kind of to remember and say, okay, who cares? We went through this, I went through this.  And I started this video on Thursday night. If you guys remember, usually Thursday nights, I don't record a video, it's my nightly off. But I recorded a video on Thursday because my daughter had a soccer game on Tuesday and I didn't have a chance to kind of share my thoughts. And the first thing I said on Thursday and Thursday night's video was, I'm starting to see a lot of prices, a lot of names, really, I don't want to use the word gas out, okay? I know there's a lot of emotional traders watching this, shut up Dan, I hope you die, the market will never go down, okay, settle that.  Your mental state is in shambles. If you can't, if you can't embrace another person's opinion who's been doing this for quite a many years, it's very, very tough for you to kind of embrace what's about to happen next. Information's there for us to embrace. And when somebody's been doing this for a very long time and I'm always learning, okay? I always have my eyes and ears open because it's always something I could pick up along the way. And last Thursday, we started talking about that. I saw a lot of names, not necessarily the word gas out, but I started with a lot of names getting a little bit tires, a little bit of a buyer strike that had extremely extended runs. And my whole focus in the last few weeks was leave the stocks that are overextended alone, okay?  That's the message. The message is not let's sit on the sidelines, wait for this mythical rug pull that everybody, you know, that people are waiting for. That's not the message. That's never been the message. I'm a very, very big bull in this market. I've been a big bull, especially the last three, four weeks because stocks are very, very strong. Again, when you're above the 50-day moving average, they're strength. When you're below the 50-day, right? When you're below the 50-day moving average, there's weakness. So there's a lot of stocks that are going higher. My message has been for the last three weeks, anything that is overextended, leave alone, right? Leave alone. So a pivot on NVIDIA was valid here. You don't want to be long here. You might make money here, but you don't want to be long here. The Tesla pivot, right? The Tesla pivot was right over here, okay? Nobody's saying it can't get higher. Again, we'll talk about Tesla in a second. But my point is you don't want to be, your first entry does not want to be in the 1200s, okay? That's my message. Stay away from the ones that had their biggest moves because realistically, when gravity kicks in and it always does, again, maybe it won't be on Monday, but the first stocks they pull are the ones that had the biggest runs. Okay, go through your history. Go through your charts. Spend 15 minutes backtracking your favorite stock in the most aggressive rug pulls, right? In the last 22 years and you'll see exactly what I'm talking about. So my message was there's a lot of names that are still being pulled up. We're still very, very bullish, but I want no part of new entries, maybe on dips into rising 60-minute supports, but I don't want any new parts of new entries of stocks that are up six, seven, eight, nine, 12 days in a row. Because again, the inevitable is gonna happen and gravity is gonna kick in. Again, maybe it might be smaller. No, Dan, I hope you die, my stock will never go down. Okay, that's cool, right? That's cool. So my point is in this type of environment, it's very, very easy to sip the Kool-Aid. A lot of new traders are getting their first test of any real money or any little money or any money to begin with and they're getting their first test of what the market can give you, okay? The love that the market can give you. So I get it. You're very emotional. I get it. You say a bad word about your stock. You'll lose your mind. You'll spend 19 hours on the internet fighting with a stranger, saying they're wrong. I get it, right? I get it. But that's not reality and that's not very, very productive. What we're talking about is not being bulls, not being bears, is being realists, okay? Collecting data. Remember, we use the word data. I trade on data. I don't care which way the market goes as long as the data is there to satisfy my next move, satisfy the technical aspects on the charts. And all I keep on reiterating, and this is again what's important to the new traders. And if you're watching this broadcast for the first time or the second time or the third time, I have no bias, okay? Short, long, it doesn't make a difference. It's all about opportunity, not bias. And right now what we started talking about on Thursday night was watch the leaders, okay? Just again, collect data. Watch the leaders. If the leaders start gassing out, okay? And there's a bias strike and you still see strength in the market. That is your first sign that a potential rolling top.  It's a rolling top, right? Look at the cues. All right, I wanna show you something, right? Look at the cues.  Again, this is how we talked about muscle memory. You see this Bollinger Man, how the cues hit the Bollinger Man here on September the 1st? So it was a rolling top. It didn't happen in one day. It was a rolling top, series events, stocks started slowly but surely putting in lower highs and lower lows that were not evident to a lot of traders. And eventually after a week or so started a series of events that would really hit the market for the next couple of weeks. Nobody was talking about Armageddon, we're going to zero, the market's gonna crash. I see so many traders using the word, yeah, you're right there, the market's gonna crash. Who's saying this? What words are coming out? The market's gonna crash. We're talking about be careful of the stocks that are made the biggest runs. Lead those stocks alone. We're still above the 50 day moving average. There's still a lot of names that are being pulled up. We're saying be careful of the rise is not market's gonna crash. So the idea that you're thinking about the market's gonna crash, go into cash, be careful, cash is a position, all the things you hear about social media which is absolutely aside. Listen to the words of what we're saying. Listen, look into the data, look at the charts. A rolling top, potential rolling top just like we had on September 1st, to hit the Bollinger Man and started series events of lowering stock and eventually got hit, got hit, recovered and went back to the highs. Look what we're talking about, right? Hit the Bollinger Man here. So now we're starting to watch for a potential rolling top. And again, on Friday, we had our first inkling of what we were talking about on Thursday. Watch the leaders from Thursday to Friday. Watch the leaders that they start getting gas out. It doesn't mean they're gonna crash. It doesn't mean that this is the top of the market. We're just saying be careful of the market leaders. So before everybody gets emotional and new traders start talking about Tesla's going to 1,500, maybe it will, maybe it won't, I'm just saying be careful of the big move, right? Be careful that it won't be a move. And when you start looking at the leaders, remember what's the names that took us higher, right? Netflix took us higher, okay? NVIDIA, right? Took us higher. Look at the reversal on Friday on the video, right? Look at the reversal on Friday in the video. You have a 17 point reversal into the close. Look at Tesla, right? Tesla's been taking us higher, right? Look at the, you know, look at the slowly. Remember we talked about the slow rolling top? And Tesla, by the way, finally touched the five day moving average. And, you know, now that five day, if you've been watching this broadcast for a while, again, not to use Tesla as an example, but if you've been watching this broadcast for a long time, you know how important that five day moving average is. So we successfully tested the five day moving average on Friday. So if it starts to build below the five day moving average, again, nobody's saying Tesla's going to 300. We're just saying be careful. And again, for all you guys trading on the sell side, well, now we have a really definitive channel that we could trade to the downside. Trade, guys, again, we love Tesla, okay?  Okay, we love Tesla, but as far as an opportunity, again, as you can see here, how many times it hit the five day moving average, bounce, bounce, bounce, bounce. We're just saying, in case it doesn't bounce, look how much room we have to the downside. That's all I'm saying. Look how much room you have to the downside of the video if it starts losing this Bollinger Band, right? That's all we're saying. And the most important part is now we're talking about exaggerations. So some of the names that continue to go higher and we talked about Amazon on Friday, right? Coming out of a channel. There's still a lot of names that are showing a lot of strength. So going into this week, I still do like a whole bunch of names to the upside, right? Lucid that we talked about on Thursday night went absolutely crazy on Friday. Again, that's what shows you the strength. But again, that's not the stock that we're warning about. We're warning about the stocks off the top, not the stocks off the bottom. That's why we keep on reiterating the point.  And if you can't find value off the bottom, that means the market slowly but surely is starting a topping out process. Will it crash? No, it won't crash. We're above the 50. Until we start talking about under the 50 day moving average, use the word crash in a different environment. Crash your car, crash your relationship, crash. We have nothing to do with the market, right? It's nothing to do with the market. It's nothing to do about stock prices. I'm not right. The market's not gonna crash. That's not exactly what we're talking about here. So again, don't listen to what you think I'm saying. Listen to reality, watch reality, watch for data.   Eventually the market is gonna catch up to you.  You'll see exactly what I'm talking about. So again, be an adult.   If you're an opportunist, obviously you know you're expecting, you're expecting opportunity from both sides of the market and that's what we're referring to, just opportunity.  All we're saying is just again, for the 88th time in this video, just be careful for the really skywalkers, right? The stock, stocks have been dancing on the moon and over the moon and all in heavens. Be careful of those prices because again, when stocks get pulled, like I said, on the Wednesday or Wednesday video, again if you're gonna lose, lose jumping out of the first floor. Don't lose jumping out of the 12th, okay? You could survive the first floor, you're not gonna survive the 12th and it's very, very important. Having said that, okay? Having said that with all the data that I have been collecting for the last couple of days, yes, there's definitely names that I still like going into this week. The Lucids of the World, we talk about this channel on Thursday's video absolutely exploded, the great airlines, right? Airlines are starting to wake up. Look at a little name like Nessa Airline, right? But again, a lot of the airline names are starting to look good. Look at a name like Zi, right? Starting to slowly, right? Slowly coming out of a channel and that's the whole point. If you have a stock that's slowly coming out of a channel, again, it's a paper cut if it fails. If you have a stock that's coming out of a channel on the 60, but the stock, oh by the way, has put out a 200 point rally in the last three weeks. What do you think is gonna, where do you think your biggest broken bones is gonna happen from the first floor or in the 10th floor? That's all I'm saying. So for all the names that I still like to the upside, there's a lot of names that are starting to break down and that's the point. When they're taking the market down right now, they're taking the market down heavy. If you guys remember on Thursday's video, I said, hey, look, I'm open-minded, but I'm watching Netflix to the downside. I'm watching Roku to the downside. Look what they did with Netflix, right? Again, if you believe in the theory, stocks go from supply to supply. Well, stocks go from demand, right? All the way to demand. We talked about Roku, second day after earnings, right? Second day after earnings. Again, look what they did to Roku. Look at some of these setups that are setting up to the downside. You would never know that the Nasdaq was up 3%, right? Look at a name like Kudel, right? Look at this Kudel. Kudel looks like death. Look at a name for example, like Zillow. Again, had bad earnings, right? Attempted to bounce. Watch the bottom of this range here on Zillow. Look at RBLX. RBLX, the funny thing is, I actually liked it long on Friday, never confirmed. Now it looks like it's short, right? So there's a lot of value. We're seeing a lot of stocks that are gassing out, and now I'm seeing a lot of really good short setups. So again, it's not screaming to me, I wanna be long the market come Monday morning. So just again, guys, just listen to what I'm saying, especially if you're new traders, for all you guys who've been trading for five, seven, nine years, you kinda get what I'm saying, okay? Even if you're emotional about a specific position, don't be, okay? Speak in reality. Speak in data. Speak in technical analysis. Don't speak in euphoria, and don't speak in hope, and don't speak in prayer. We're adults here. This isn't a business for adults. If you're emotional, and if you're a longest stock that I just mentioned, and you're so bothered by it, okay, that you can't sleep over the weekend, that it's a common sign that right now you're just not emotional already to tackle on this business from a technical point of view, okay? Because if words hurt, you know, right? Shouldn't apply to your stocks, okay? It shouldn't, okay?  Your work hard for your money. What you choose to do with your money is yours, right? Your dime, your dance floor. But again, remember, opinions in this business mean nothing. It's all about price action. So if I'm wrong on Monday, again, like I said on Thursday, if I'm wrong on Monday, we keep on going higher, again, what's the worst case scenario? I buy stocks, crazy, right? Again, very, very important guys. Stay in business, stay in the market, but again, the most important point is stay in reality. So let's talk about some pivots from Friday. Again, another aggressive session. That's the whole point. You have aggressive action now on both sides of the market. And the point is if we still continue to build on this data that I'm collecting, then yes. We're slowly, we're slowly, we're gonna start doing a roundabout top and eventually we get a pretty aggressive pull. No crashes, no markets going to zero. It's no sell everything, just individual names that are overextended a bit, okay? So let's talk about Friday's pivots. Cisco, again, still waiting for that 58 pivot that is never coming. If you guys remember on Thursday's session, monster hundred point move on Amazon went from 30, basically 3400 to 3500. Here was the pivot on Friday, 3500 now needs to confirm. Amazon went nuts, again, put up another $50 move to the upside, right? Took out this whole channel here and put up another 50 point move off this 3500 level. Huge, huge move. And the monster moves this weekend. Really, really monster moves. Lucid was huge. Well, you guys are still long over the weekend. Phenomenal job, Lucid 3780, 38 needs to build. They were coming in with incredible aggressive call buying on Friday and look at the move into the close, man.  Trading over 42 after hours on Friday. Just an absolute monster. Again, here's starting value to the downside. For experienced traders, watch the green to red. Note, this is not a pivot, just momentum. Needs to confirm 285 to bring in more sellers. And here is Roku, right? Here is Roku. When green to red took out 285 and went all the way down to 275, it still goes lower. I still think the stock goes lower, especially if there's another pull in the market ahead. CERS, I wasn't even watching. Rejected twice, $8. I wasn't even watching this thing. I didn't do it in 790. RBLX, like we talked about. RBLX, I was actually watching to the upside and never confirmed to the upside. Now I'm watching this thing to the downside. I lost a little bit of support. Tesla to the upside. Again, here's my point. I don't care which way it goes, but now not only do we have an upside pivot, if you guys watched, and my buddy Charlie sent me this, he's in the webinar, he said, Dan, did you see this on Twitter? I'm like, no, I really don't go on Twitter. I post on Twitter, I just don't go on Twitter anymore.  So I proposed a selling of 10% Tesla stock. He actually ran a poll to see people would approve of this. What do you think your Tesla investors would say? Yes, Elon, that's a great idea. You should sell you 10% of the stock. The guy's high as hell. Gotta love him.  He trolls people all the time. You don't even know if that is real. But if that is real, right? If that is real, we have an area here to the upside that we're watching, but now we also have a definitive area that if it starts building below the five-day moving average, we have a lot of value to the downside as well. But again, I'm open-minded to both. Here comes Amazon, Lucid is absolutely exploding went to 42, Roku got destroyed in the video. Again, here's another example of the leader, right? One of the several leaders are really aggressive. Buyers gave up, right? They just gave up on Friday. Maybe it was tired, maybe it wasn't. Again, huge, absolutely magnificent run on the video, but it gassed out. That's the point. I'm just watching for more stocks gassing out. On the video held 298 times. Again, only went down a couple of bucks, but that's not even the point. The point is we're waiting for more meaningful setup that kind of setting up exactly the same way. Again, is this the start of something? We'll see. Again, the most important part is we are prepared for it. So going into Monday, I'm collecting data and I'll be honest with you. I have more shorts on my watch that's going into Monday than I have longs.  I still like Airbnb, especially into any weakness to kind of trap shorts. I like Lucid for any weakness to kind of trap shorts, right? There's definitely names I still like, but there's also a lot of names that I like to the downside as well. So guys, if you want any type of meaningful career, lose the emotion, okay? Lose the, oh my God, somebody said a bad word about my stock. Markets, listen, there's buyers and sellers. Get over it, okay?  Whole life is about handling adversity. It's about dealing with people. It's about dealing with opinions. And if you are so fragile, that some guy said something bad about your stock, that's not even in reality yet. You got a very, very tough time navigating long term. So guys, have a blessed weekend. God bless everybody. Wish everybody nothing but love and health and happiness. And God willing, I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.