But a mentor told me once, he said, you're growing. You're not scaling, you're growing. But what are you doing to buy your time back? Just like your father.  But then that's it. You're kind of starting again, apart from the cash that you have. Do you just, you know, use that and invest it in shares or whatever, real estate or whatever, and then just kind of do something new again? You'll need capital. How much capital will you need? You know, it's like on top of the 33 or so percent that you put away for tax, I feel like businesses need to start considering putting away a 10, 15, maybe even 20 percent, if you can afford it, into your rainy day fund. Fill that up. And then that 15, 20 percent becomes your investment amount for your companies. Welcome to The Sevo Show. Welcome, everyone back. And yeah, trying to get along, rolling along with everything. Once a week, getting that schedule up and running. It's the new financial year here in Australia. Today, July 24th. And we have Ken Craigy in the studio. Ken is a beloved friend, mentor, person I vent to about business. And yeah, he is one of the brothers. That owns Roy Owes, Roy. And then Owes, his brother's name, got the the tick of approval to be in the brand. And Ken's the Ken's the all mighty operations guy behind it all. So thanks for joining us. Hope that intro was very nice, very flattering. And I vent as much to you as you do to me. So we can try like that. Yeah. So for everybody at home, we met during our TEDx experience last October, we both were appointed to do a TEDx talk at the UWA theater. And yeah, we did some speech practices and got to know each other there. And we're always going to connect. It was only a matter of time. And now we do a thing called Celebrity Burger at his restaurant, which has been doing really well along with G Madison, who is very well overdue to be a guest as well. And yeah, for everyone, for everyone looking, just as you're listening or watching, hit up the Roy Owes social media page and you'll be able to see all those videos. So that was the intro plug. I'll do one at the end again. All right, so yeah, I mean, let everybody know. You've you've told this story a dozen times, more than that. The humble beginnings of Ken. Humble beginnings of Ken. Just a really uncertain and lost high school graduate that went to uni without a clue what he wanted to do. Uni seemed like a really good idea because everyone else was doing it. Yeah. Didn't really have a sense of purpose from any work I could find. But the mindset I had back then was I need to be able to earn money and, you know, afford the lifestyle that I've become accustomed to because growing up, I was fairly privileged working or living around the world with dad as an expat in Indonesia and I was born in Saudi Arabia. So we had some pretty luxurious lifestyles until we came to Perth, where it kind of all normalized. So yeah, I kind of thought to myself, I just need to figure out how to make a lot of money. That's what I wanted to do. And the corporate path kind of revealed itself to me on the back of a marketing and management degree. And I started doing it and I was actually pretty good. I was a bit of a natural. I mean, throughout uni, I was doing a couple of sales roles and everything I applied myself to, I was doing pretty well. So when I got into the corporate world, it was I was pretty good at it. And I like thought, I'll just test myself here and stop pushing myself a little bit. And I just pushed myself to a point where it was unhealthy. But the goal was to make money and I was achieving the goal. But not knowing how much it was just eating at my soul, how much it was taking away from the things that really gave me joy and a sense of purpose. Music was probably the biggest thing for me. I loved music. I actually had a bit of a career in front of me and I had to make a choice between finishing my degree or be a full time musician. And I chose the degree. But I thought, I'll keep on playing music. And after a couple of years, I thought to myself, well, I'm nearly where I want to be financially. Maybe I'll just put the music down for a little while. And I gave up on music just to go all out with the corporate life. And that is what really backfired on me big time. Yes, sir. It just became my identity. I allowed my work to form and shape or define who I am. And out of nowhere, like I knew the company I was working for at the time, Fuji Xerox, they were doing some crazy things, crazy things in the way that it was so gung-ho in sales. A new managing director came along and he said, I don't care about culture. It's sell at all costs. And that's the one that made me put down the music and go with it. And I nearly doubled sales. I worked my ring off, you know, 10, 11 hours a day and looking forward to weekend so I could catch up on what I hadn't done and set myself up for the next week. And after nearly doubling sales on the previous year, I found myself getting made redundant. I was one of the last ones into the executive level to be hired into the executive level. So one of the first ones to get out. And I blamed myself for this. I just thought I'm just not good enough. Well, what am I going to do now? I've pumped 11 years into getting to this point. And it's just been pulled away from me. I was really disheartened and disillusioned by that path that I had walked. Really felt like I was starting from square one all over again. But, yeah, from there, that was probably the best thing that could have ever happened to me. It was really the best thing that could have ever happened to me because it just made me look at life completely different. And I had that experience at Burning Man, which helped me disconnect from that identity, that that identity I connected to my work and reset and look at what is important in life. What is if I'm going to do something I need to know, it's going to appeal to my heart. I need to have some sense and purpose in this. And lo and behold, Royals had started six months before that. I didn't have any plans of being operational. I was meant to be like a silent investor. And when I came back, it was starting to gain some momentum. And I was like, well, why don't you jump in on this and get involved in this for a little while? So I did. And now here we are eight years later. We've opened 11 stores, even though we only have six now. But a lot of them were upgrades and relocations. And that's just as much work as opening a new one. And, yeah, it's been a hell of a lot closer to my purpose and passion than anything I ever did in the corporate world. Amazing. Big time. Amazing. So and that's that's a journey that a lot of people are about to embark on. Not exactly the same. No one's is ever exactly the same. But it's that reset, yeah, finding themselves. What specifically at Burning Man caused that? So I'd been to Burning Man. Once before. Yeah, I've been to Burning Man once before. And the first time I went, I was really just disoriented in the place. And someone said to me, it's only when you've been here two or three times, you'll actually get it. And that first time I was there, I got a snippet of it. I got this sense of letting go completely of any expectation of myself, any kind of preconceived notion on who I'm supposed to be. I was just completely present with what was going on around me. The randomness of it, the beauty in the chaos of everything that was there. This time when I went, it took me a couple of days to get to that point because I'm still hanging on to corporate Ken, right? Corporate Ken is like thinking, what am I going to do? Who am I? Like, do I deserve to be here? How did I afford to be here? Of course, I got a bit of my all this thinking, this monkey mind was just going crazy. But then there was one particular experience where it just the veil lifted, you know, and it all came on the back of this crazy dragon ride. I was actually having a rough time every day. I'm asking myself these three questions like, what am I doing my life? How did I end up here? What am I going to do next? But then we took some acid and we decided to go around all the art installations in the desert. And I was just like completely mesmerized by everything.  This artwork was beautiful. We come back to the camp and someone says, oh, we're about to jump on the dragon car. The dragon car is this beautiful orange thing called the braxis. And a braxis holds about, I don't know, I'm going to say maybe 100 people on it. And then it does the tour again of all the cool artwork that we've seen. And on a braxis, I don't know, everything just made perfect sense. Everything was just I had never felt that happy. I think this joy that I experience, it reminded me that the human. Body is capable of a joy that is so powerful. It can just uplift any negative stress or anything that's ever dragged you down can be completely kiboshed. And it reminded me of that joy so much that it was ingrained in me for the rest of that trip. And I just knew for the rest of that trip, I just need to follow my heart. If I just follow my heart, like this is the thing that Burning Man allows you to do.  But you do whatever feels right. If that's taking a nap, you take a nap. If it means you're napping on the floor or you go for a walk and try and find a place. I decided I want to have a nap and I went for a walk or no, I went for a ride on my bike and I found a nap tent, which was just like 50 hammocks lined up playing chill out music. Nice. And I just thought, this is exactly what Burning Man does. It's like, whatever it is, if you follow your heart, the answer will find you. I was I was way out in the in the on the play at one point, thinking, I'm so thirsty and out of nowhere, this golf cart comes up with an eski with frozen margaritas. Well, I see margaritas and she's just like, you want to drink? I'm like, yes, I would love a drink. That's amazing. I had someone in my camp said that they were out there feeling hungry and a drone at the time came out. Like, I don't think you're allowed drones now, but came out with like a clothes hanger. You know, the ones that you put your socks on kind of thing with strips of bacon and a note saying, please take one that it flies off. Are you still on acid at this point? Oh, these are different experiences now. But oh, man, when I was on acid, but yeah, everything just looked so beautiful. The energy of every single person on that on that dragon car. I was just feeling it. There was so much love and I was just swimming in that feeling. And yeah, the second half of that trip was just follow your heart. And when I came back to Perth, when I came back to reality, that did not leave me, that feeling of whatever you do. Just make sure you're making it from your heart, not from a financial. I must have this. I need to do that.  After TEDx, we talked about that. Yeah, trying to find a way to make a living that aligns to good values. And that's been on my mind ever since and over the last three years, really, since I've been told about financial freedom and that you can achieve it sooner than later and how like over 75 percent of people in Australia, they rely on pension when they retire. That's a lot, three and four people. That's huge. So I thought, OK, how do I become that, you know, 25 percent of the people that aren't relying on it? And then there's an even worse stat. And 96.3 percent of people in Australia, when they retire, four years after they have to downgrade their lifestyle that they've they've been building towards or achieved by the time they retired and then, oh, sorry, you retired. You can't sustain it because you don't have a salary anymore and your superannuation's run out.  And yeah, it's crazy. But you have discovered something within yourself, a passion, a purpose and, you know, having a hospitality business and going through what we went through a few years ago. Let's call it the flu so it doesn't get tagged. And obviously recently with inflation and the stress that you've had very recently. How do you how do you balance the? Yeah, this is what I not want to do. This is my purpose and also, you know, thinking about like, man, if we hit this here specific checkpoint, which is, let's say, financial freedom, like no matter, let's say, what no matter what happens, you can cover all basic expenses for your restaurants.  You can just reopen it at the click of a finger. Is as a business person, what I see at thirty two, that's something that I kind of envision in myself. If I was the owner of that sort of business, how do you keep going the way you are and thinking about that financial freedom? Does that make sense? Yeah. Well, the financial freedom part still weighs heavy on me. I haven't fully cracked that code. And I think that's because my financial decisions are still motivated based on a fear, you know, of a fear that I'm not going to be in that position. And that's probably the biggest chunk of work I need to do first is to start making financial decisions that are not based on fear. And instead, they're coming from a greater source, a more positive source is that because I saw my I saw it happen to my dad.  We had drivers and maids and gardener security, big mansions living in exotic places. But then he lost a lot of money in various times at the end of his career. And he was on a pension from the day he retired. And he was really, really upset in knowing that he didn't have anything to leave to the family. We didn't need a cent from him. But I know that that, like on his deathbed, that was one thing that troubled him that he didn't have. So leaving, leaving knowledge, leaving experience is what he left. Oh, yeah, he was the ultimate role model in terms of being a good human, a good father, a good husband. Like this is what we tried to tell them. But, you know, he would for him, that was his one dying wish was that he had a little bit more to leave. And he did. He still had a little bit there, but nowhere near what he had at one certain point in time. So the financial side of things, I haven't quite unlocked. I'm not going to profess to say I'm not going to confess to anything that I'm not there. I am working hard on it and I'm constantly learning on what can I do because I'm good at making money, but I'm not necessarily good at saving, storing, retaining and growing and all these different financial methods that are out there, whether it's crypto stocks or just straight up savings or cash in under the mattress. Yeah, I'm constantly experimenting with them rather than sticking to one for too long, that might be the answer. So that's the financial side of things. But the business side of things, that resilience, I'm starting to learn that I almost thrive in those pressure situations, which is kind of unhealthy because you saw what state I was in a few months ago. Oh, yeah. When this inflation thing hit, it it came out of nowhere. Like the big flu, that one, everyone knew it was coming. Everyone was going through the same thing. Everyone was in the same boat. There was a difference, though, is then everyone still had money and the government was throwing money at everyone. You just had to be a business that figured out how to help people spend that money. And like, we thought we were going to go bankrupt then and it turned into one of the best best sales runs or best runs we've ever had. Everyone that voluntarily stood down, we had to call them back, saying, please come back on board, we're doing more business now than we ever did. This one that happened recently, it the cost just went up so fast, so fast. And the sales came down just as quickly because everyone's cost of living was just shooting up as quickly as our supply costs were going up. So like sales coming down, cost going up. That profit that we once had was in the negative. And it was in the negative very, very fast. It was going further and further into the negative quicker than we could handle it, manage it. Why that is, is we probably identified between 180 to 250 different types of costs that we had to account for. Everything down to that one pickle. You know, how much is the one pickle in a Royale with cheese costing us? We had to figure out, are we getting burnt on that? And when we analyzed every single thing, it was actually delivery. It was the delivery platforms that was killing us. And when we figured that out, we had to jack up prices on delivery platforms in a very big way, very quickly. Like overnight, poor old Drasco, he got pounded by the media, turned into a very good story for him. But I called him up and said, you have to take your signature burger off the menu right now. Like right now, you are losing 10 to 15 bucks on everyone that goes out right now. That's why he was probably under more pressure than any of the other businesses that I got. So he turned it off and then I came in the next day and I said, the only way that you can afford to put that back on delivery is if you're selling it for 41 bucks, you know, for this one, which was just absurd for a burger. Yeah. For something that was 23 to self of 41. And then the customer has to pay another five bucks on top of that. So they're paying 46 now. And no wonder the media jumped on him. But when we laid out the truth of the matter is like, this is what's happened. Like, we're not trying to be greedy here. We're trying to survive this. Um, a lot of businesses rallied around, a lot of customers rallied around and just said, yeah, we get it. We're feeling it too. Everyone's feeling it, you know, whether it's rent, utilities, insurance, grocery groceries, man, what used to be a hundred bucks a week is now 200 bucks a week. Yeah. So for me, there's something about being in those pressure situations that I thrive on, even though like I can still have the melt down, yeah, I thrive on it because when you kind of crack the code, it's almost like solving that puzzle. It's just, oh, there it is. I've done it and I have this faith that if we can crack that code, we're going to be so much stronger for it. And when we, when we cracked the code across Royals and Drascos kind of got to the end of it. And I realized I was more excited as we were cracking the code than I am now that we've actually cracked it. It's like, now I don't know what to do next. Yeah. Well, you're waiting for, it's interesting. You say that being, having your back against the wall and like I'm the same. I've got the same exact thing. Like it's like the last couple of dollars left in the bank account. You're like, where it, where's the gaps? What can we do right now? And it always comes off, but it gets exhausting. It gets so exhausting trying to crack the code.  Yeah. Then if that happens, then I'll be like, everything's OK. Everything's smooth. But then the consequence could be complacency. Yeah. Right. But because we're not there yet, it's like, all right, we're learning all these things, learning, learning, learning. It's like winning a lottery, right? You win the lottery. You don't get to learn all these life lessons throughout the journey to get to that financial freedom. You just got it all of a sudden. And most people that win the lottery, they end up pissing it away anyway, because they don't know what to do with it. It's a crazy statistic. A number of people that end up exactly where they began before. Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, for me, just hearing that Drasco's problem and the Royals problem, my kind of personal take on it would be what if there was a way to establish a system that avoids having to solve the problem because you're preventing it, right? Across any business, hospitality, whatever.  Because I see a lot of businesses that start up. They're going, look how much money I'm making. I'm like, are you paying your tax quarterly or yearly? They're like, what do you mean? I'm like, well, the end of the year, you're going to have to pay tax. I remember I told one guy this. He lives in Adelaide, but then he's got a media production company with his brother. I said to him, dude, make sure you put at least 33% away for your business right now. Don't ever touch it. Come tax time. Let me know. And he said to me, he goes, dude, that was that advice saved me. Yeah, you know, that's just the beginning. But moving forward to now, it's like you're building your business, you're opening up another store or you've opened up multiple stores and you have other franchise or not franchises, but other kind of brands.  But a mentor told me once, he said, you're growing. You're not scaling, you're growing. But what are you doing to buy your time back?  But then that's it. You're kind of starting again, apart from the cash that you have. Do you just, you know, use that and invest it in shares or whatever, real estate or whatever, and then just kind of do something new again? You'll need capital. How much capital will you need? You know, it's like on top of the 33 or so percent that you put away for tax, I feel like businesses need to start considering putting away a 10, 15, maybe even 20 percent, if you can afford it, into your rainy day fund, fill that up. And then that 15, 20 percent becomes your investment amount for your companies. Yeah.  You ever watched the movie? I love you, Philip Morris, but Jim Carrey and Ewan McGregor. No. There was.  Right. And but he always figures it out. OK. Right. And he falls in love with this guy, Philip Morris and you play by Ewan McGregor and met in prison and then they're all gay for each other, which is cute. And then having a gay lifestyle in that in that movie was very expensive. And I can imagine it's expensive as well. So what happened was he was Jim's character. He would figure out the next scam or he would he would just like he had different professions. He was a doctor or whatever. And then one position, he was the CFO of a company. And the way that he would make money, he made a good salary, but he would make the company money.  But what he found was the gap. He had all this money that the company had just sitting there in limbo. Yeah. So what he did was he would invest it and he would gain a huge profit from it. Yeah. Right. And he would report that to the company, but he would only report 50 percent of the profit, which is still a profit. Yeah. And the company thought he was amazing. But he didn't tell he didn't share the other 50. He would pocket that and he would make so much money until one day someone was going through his the reports of the papers and all the the numbers and they found it.  And I know, obviously, that's a dishonest story. But I'm just saying, what if businesses, companies started to think more like that? Well, the principle is definitely there. Yeah. And they do. I think that's probably what separates the the businesses that eventually turn into corporations. Yeah. They have to have life. I think the first milestone for a small business is to have a 10 month buffer. Yeah. 10 month. If you go to 10 month buffer, that's a big chunk of cash that you can be investing and can and will start to grow quite comfortably on its own. And yeah, we think back to when we we came out of the flu when we came out of covid. Oh, no. It's tagged now. When we came out of that period, we actually were very far in front, further in front than we've ever been. And we made the decision to grow all three stores by that. I mean, upgrade each location to a licensed venue. The amount of times where, especially recently, where we've just thought to ourselves, had we just saved that and put that into an interest bearing account or maybe some low risk shares or diversified portfolio, whatever, we would not have had the stress that we just went through. And the stress that we went through with the inflation and the cost of living everything, it wasn't just the two months. The two months was like the peak of it, right? But the last 18 months, like this problem has just been getting bigger and bigger. And then all of a sudden it just accelerated on us. And you touched on something before, where you said if you did have that buffer, then you would fall into the trap of complacency. We well and truly did that. We had almost set ourselves an expectation that we were bulletproof after covid. You know, we were so convinced we were going to go bankrupt during covid. To come out of that, we thought, all right, we've cracked the code. Until a new code has come along. Exactly. And this one, we just, we didn't see it coming. Like there was, and when you think back, the writing was on the wall. You know, they even called it a false economy back then. It was like it after, it was like a hangover after the flu. It was a total, yeah. And we're still, we're still drinking Barocca right now. Yeah. Barocca and Panadol every day. Oh my God. But yeah, and so the, the buffer, 100% correct. Like that's what the other thing that we've realized is if we could own the properties that we were operating. But MACAs does. It's the MACAs model. Like that would also be another really nice way to safeguard our business in a sense that, yes, the restaurant could close down for six months until we reinvent it, but the property value is not going to collapse. No. You know, or take a much bigger economic crisis in order for the... Or risk of rent increase. Yeah. Sorry for the interruption, but this show would not be possible without the help of Bright Tank Brewery. They are the major sponsor of the Sevo show. Huge shout outs to them. Check them out. Great beers. Great people. Great everything. And well, let's get back to the episode. Yeah. So you're, let's say you did go all in on one restaurant and you did get through it and you were sweet now. Coming out of it, neck and neck, you know, the different timelines put against each other. Would you be as satisfied or would you have as much momentum? Or I don't even know where to go from here. You know, like, let's start with the first direction. Do you think you would be as successful?  But you know what I mean? Like if you just had one store, would you have killed it even better? Yeah. You never know. You never know. And if anything, we are, we're weighing that up right now. We've got a lot of demand to open up Arroyo's north and south. And that's always been our plan. We've kind of cut across from east to west, Big Park, Northbridge and Wembley. And we've always had a plan to go one north and one south. And then we've kind of got Perth metro area covered. But at the same time, life was a lot more fun and simple when we just had the one or two stores. And if we were to some way. Not wrap them up, but yeah, wrap them up and then recreate them into one staunch location, one that we really put every all of the talent that we've got. If we put it all into one place, could that be a better result?  And they aren't naturally hospitality people. They're property people, right? But we've actually got three brands, four brands, if you include dress goes as well. But Alan, I got the three brands, Al pastor and Lola's and Royals. If we put that into one roof and now that we've got liquor license experience and if we own that property, that could be the ultimate for us. Just having that one staunch. What's the word I want to call it? A little bit like where Al pastor is the sunshine. Yeah, you're you're one forum, one place to put all of our so let's go back to your first store. Why did you expand? Customers were getting angry at us for selling out or the lines were too long. And so when we get it, it's it's a funny irony because so the first store was so much fun.  And so we opened the second one because there was so much demand for it. But we were still just basically breaking the the site that we were in. We were just doing crazy volumes through it at the time. So we open we we then open North Bridge, which we thought would also alleviate some of that volume will shift some of the volume. But then it big park was still heaving. And so we upgraded the site to fit more people in and include a bar offering as well. Yeah. And so that was basically it. But as soon as we open that up, people are just like, Oh, you guys have sold out. You're not the same anymore. So there's no winning here. We just going to get the same criticism somehow or another. So if you stayed at the one location in big park, or let's just say you relocated and upgraded it like you did eventually anyway. Yeah. What's what would be the harm in just saying, well, you sold out, you know, the hype is the hype. Kind of like old mate does it on his weekends where he only just opens in the weekend, you know, not going into any plugs there. But, you know, like I always thought in business, it's like when the demand is high, you can up your prices. If they sell out, you sell out. Yeah, just you just wing it, winning it. You become more vulnerable. The wider spread you are because you can more bullets can hit you. Yeah, they hit a gut shot and you're in trouble. So it's very true. Has there been considerations? I mean, obviously, apart from the inflation stuff, has there been consideration in actually doing a de-scale to upscale later? Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Because also the game that we're in right now, it's now a saturated market. It's it's ridiculous. It's I mean, we've got one competitor now that is literally opening up maybe 50 metres down the road. Dog move, if you ask me, because they're going to have a diluted business and they're going to dilute the other businesses that are around them. It's just that this is the first time where it's just been so real to me. Because we got interviewed by Australian Business News and their big question was, is it a saturated market? Yeah. And we said, no, there's still room to grow for this market to grow. And then only six months later, this happens. It's like, now it's a saturated market. Why do you think people are jumping onto it? Well, I know this particular operator has failed in another location. And so maybe they are running out of creative ideas and they just want to copy. I really don't know their motivations, but having failed in Fremantle, that's that they must be just scratching their head thinking, well, Fremantle makes sense, right? Fremantle's got a good population. But it flopped and now they're looking to us for a better solution. Maybe. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I've seen I've seen a few different burger places start up and fail. Yeah. And like Jagen Square, there was one that was really cool, but it didn't last. Is that the green something? Oh, I don't remember. It was downstairs. Yeah, they were good. They were good. Yeah, I would love that place. They had a great burger there. Yeah. Also, just a side side bar for a second. Those new buns you put in. Game changing. Game changing. I'm glad you like that.  I was so happy. Locally baked bread. Are you kidding me? Like, yeah, it's a significant difference. Like the buns we had before, like, I'm not honestly, this isn't a paid paid paid plug in the middle of the episode. But damn, like, it's like, it reminds me of the in and out. And the no, five guys, the five guys. Yeah.  A lot of them are thinking of coming here as well. And it's like, and the ones that are copying who are trying to do it again and again and again. I've dealt with a few of them and I just don't see the passion. Yeah. That's the real answer why they're failing. OK, cool. You're innovative. You have more TVs than anybody else. Yeah. OK. But are you actually involved or are you just a ghost investor? Yeah. And I imagine if you just remained a ghost investor, would Royals be where it is today? Right? Yeah. So, yeah, I'm I and this is what I'm trying to tell brands. It's like, no matter what you're starting, you know, if you want to copy great, but do it because do it in your own way. Use the template. Yeah. Do it in your own way. Because if you don't do it in your own way, people will figure it out eventually. People figure out your copy, but also people figure out you're just trying to make quick buck. Yeah. That's not good. That's some of the feedback I've had from the local community. Yeah. Park is when I tell them, you know, I'm stressed about this. You know, I'm stressed that there's another person that's doing exactly what we're doing in their way. But they're like, no, but they're not part of the community here. No, everyone can see right through them. Yeah, they're doing that. They haven't been. We've been there going on. It's going to be eight years in next month. Eight years we've been in big park and it's in our mission statement. Our mission is very simple. We create happiness through chicken, burgers, super friendly service while supporting the local community. And that's why we do Celebrity Burger. That's our integrity. We have always brought ourselves back to that if we ever lost our way and started trying to play the tit for tat game with our competition. It's like, you know what, we're doing it again. Let's go back to what we're good at. Let's go back to what we love. Let's go back to why we're in this. And that's what that's what helps us succeed time and time again. We have to get back to why we're doing this. And that's the that's what I get from the restaurant game that I never got from the corporate world. Or I would get from the corporate world with the odd contract here and there a couple of times a year is every day we have an opportunity to make someone's day just by being super friendly and serving up a good piece of chicken or a burger. You can really make someone's day like that. We we love sharing stories about like seeing that customer that is obviously having a bad day and they've come in and you've just seen the tension just melt.  Yeah. And that we've got so many stories like that where we where we've had families that have come from Mandra and they've driven up to Vic Park and we've just been able to do something a little bit special for them when they've told us this or they've. Yeah, every time we can make someone's day, even we had an event recently and I had a big group of Samoans on the door. Thanks to the guys from the West Joe Combat Academy. Like, I've gotten to know them because we've looked after them a lot in our restaurants. Like, they've come in and I've just seen the kids and we on their birthday and we make a big fuss over them. And I told Ramel, I need some security. Like, I don't really need proper security. I just need to be not the only person on the door. And Ramel said, oh, that's all right.  But it was they were happy to do it because the amount of times we'd actually given them little moments of happiness, you know, for their kids or for them themselves, they come to us to have a little happy moment. You know, yeah. And it's really nice to see it kind of come background full circle. And it's it's a beautiful thing. It's a really beautiful thing. So you share a business with AJ. Yeah, Al pastor Al pastor. Yes, that's located in in the one of the Hawaiian group establishments in Fremantle. Yeah, yeah, and Harvester. You were in Mexico. Yeah. And you did your due diligence and studied. And you went around all these different places. But there was that one place that was always right there. And you were like, that's how we replicate our tacos and burritos. Tell me about that. So it was our mission that if we were going to open a Mexican restaurant, we needed to put hand on heart and say, we know we know what a real taco is. So we flew to Mexico. We were also Cali, Max, as well. We spend a lot of time eating tacos in L.A. as well. But we get to Mexico and every day we check out some sites, but we are eating tacos everywhere we go. In that one week, the three of us had eaten 300 tacos. Like I did a rough estimate and we're going to check out all these places but naturally, every time we came back to our hotel, there was one stall. In fact, there was five stalls opposite our hotel, but there was the one stall that we just kept on gravitating back to. And they'd be open late at night.  You'd have the five choices, but this one stall was the one. And we knew we were good customers because this guy would see us from a mile away, say, here we go. These guys. But yeah, we like that guy might have retired the next week. He got so much business from us, but it was just legit. And he was friendly enough, couldn't speak a word of English. We couldn't speak a word of Spanish, but he knew that we just appreciated the food that he was serving up time and time again. And and that is the al pastor and the beef. Suadero is the one like the pulled beef tacos. I had that, yeah, can can confirm. And like I remember when I was filming the content for him and I was like, OK, here we go. I haven't tried it yet. Yeah. So I was like, all right, here we go. Here's another Mexican restaurant in Perth. But I had high hopes. Yeah. It's where it's sweat got. And then when I had it, I was like, yeah, this is this hits different. Yeah, it's actually good. Yeah. Well, it's because Tex-Mex is so big here. Yeah. So Tex-Mex is obviously where the Texans have come along and they add all their cheese and sour cream and and it's good. It has its place. But what was being underdone was Cali-Mex and traditional mix. And Cali-Mex is a lot closer to traditional Mex style food, and that's what we were going for. And it was so important to us in the beginning, like we didn't set out to get the nod of approval, but we wanted that nod of approval, of course, from the Mexican community. And that was a really cool thing. Yeah. Yeah. And then you've also got Lola's and that's after named after your mom. Yeah. Yeah. So Lola translates into grandma and mom. My mom is now a grandma, but it's also a salute to her mom, who was our grandma. So Lola's Filipino diner is that shout out. Moms, our grandma, actually, their house was the restaurant. So the restaurant was downstairs and everyone's rooms were upstairs. That's cold. So that's my childhood memories of going to Philippines to visit the family. Whereas there was an open running restaurant downstairs. We, as kids, were just running around and all the food would be there all the time, every day. And it was just, yeah, it was it was a really it is a beautiful memory. And we're glad we can honor that Lola's Filipino diner. And it's received really well in Perth. Yeah. Yeah. It's it's the more American style of Filipino food, because obviously the US had it for about 50 years. We didn't go down the full traditional path because there's some stuff there, which I don't think Perth is ready for yet. They come out as weekly specials, but like we've got something called Dinnigul One, which is like. Awful pork cooked in the blood. It comes out black, but it's loaded with garlic, chili and other flavors, which just make it sound like a good, healthy food. Yeah, well, take black pudding, for example. But imagine that and more of a stew with Asian flavors. Yeah, but then there's also some pretty full on stuff in the Philippines. Like they deep fry everything over there, deep fried intestines, whole baby chickens, different types of intestines. You get the small and the large, but they've also got amazing street. They've got something called Pulutan, which is basically beer drinking food. And it's like poutine poutine. Yeah, that would count as Pulutan. It's basically any food that goes well with drinking beer. OK. Yeah, they love their beer over there. And there's like a hot spot at 2 a.m. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, they will they find an excuse to have Pulutan any time of the day. There you go. There you go. And then you've also got Drascos. And that's a specific chicken thing. And when I was there, I learned about the different spices, different chilies. Yeah. And there's one specific chili that's not on the menu. And it was it's it's grown in. Is it kind of Nara or Canava? Canavan, one of those two. Yeah. Yeah. Canavan. And he showed me the bag and I'm like, it just looks like death. And apparently it's the hottest in the world, hotter than Caroline Reapers. Yeah. Have you tried it? Yeah. Did you die? Yes. I saw things. Oh, my God.  But I've just seen the the chicken wing, the chicken wing. You know, the hot hot takes. Yep. Oh, my God. I don't think so. OK, so the the bastard chili is worth having a bite of to experience it. It is just its next level. If you have any tolerance for chili. Yeah. I have tolerance, but after like maybe so the one after mild hot after that. I can't. Yeah. I'm probably like medium when I go there. Yeah. Yeah. The dried chili is different to vinegar based chilies, like the hot sauce that we use. So I've met people that can have the death sauce at like myself, I can eat the death sauce at Royals, but I can't go near the hot address goes.  Wow. Yeah. It's heat is a really interesting one to play with. Mix them together.  You really want to flush the pipes. Colab. Yeah. But he's a funny one because like so recently we just got a two star review because they said the hot wings aren't even hot. And it's just like, I think they're pretty damn hot. But you know, some people will find Indomie Migo ring is too spicy for them. So it's a really hard one to be comparing heats unless you just going with a pure type of chili. The one that Drasco has, it's not on an official record list, but we know the scoville units of it is beyond anything that is on the official heat charts. And yeah, it's how we found that is just crazy to me. And what he put himself through in Nashville is he I'm pretty sure they called an ambulance for him once because he was trying all the hottest stuff he could find out there. But we it was the same principle. Like if we're going to open a Nashville hot chicken, he'd better go to Nashville. And so we met in the U.S. And yeah, he did Nashville. Then we met up in LA and debriefed. And then we came back and brought something legit to Perth. There's a there's a chicken place in Dundalup. I can't remember the name of it, but yeah, they they make it all fresh. And they do the whole, you know, in the dunking it in. Yeah. And man, they've got all these different sources.  And I'm like, that's not fun. It doesn't sound like fun. I know there's a there's a chilly community out there. And they just go crazy for it. Yeah, that's crazy. What's what's a your perfect sort of burger yourself? We've probably talked about this many times on Celebrity Burger. What's your perfect burger? Because we haven't properly talked about Royals yet. True. Yeah. So you you have the burgers now and you've optimised them now with the but for me, the buns. Yeah, started the buns. If they melt properly, you're a winner, right? And then pair that with, you know, the beef. Obviously, you get good beef. And then all of the other ingredients. But in terms of, like, just your classic buns, meats, cheese, pickles, tomato, lettuce, onion, the basics, the basics, pickles, what do you go through to get every one of those right in your restaurant? I couldn't take the credit for any of that. This is Al's genius right now. So like, Al is the one that was constantly on the burger situation, the bun situation, I should say. I was and we do we do what do you call it? Blind testing with customers. We asked them, you guys want to try something before we decide to change a burger. We are asking customers to try it out for us. So the diligence is there for the bun. Al was just the big thing for him was that it didn't. The previous one did not look good. It looked like a deli bun. Yeah, there was nothing unique about it. The reason we moved away from the previous supplier to that one was because our previous supplier was short changing us. They would like we were supposed to be getting a 80, 90 grand bun, I think, and it was coming down to 60, 70. Like we were taking these burgers out thinking we made a mistake. This is a kid's meal burger. Yeah. Go back and like, no, that's what we got. OK, we got to get rid of this supplier. Yeah. And we brought out this new one and customers tested it, they loved it and Al just wasn't happy with it. He's like, it's missing something. It's it's just not quite there. And so credit full credit to him. He found the perfect bun for his burger. The beef, he does not season the beef. He's just like, let the beat do the talking. He doesn't want Super Smash.  He's like, we want a little bit of that, but not too much. A bit of juice in there, left in there, you know. Well, if we had it our way, it would still be slightly pink in the middle. Yeah. But too many people complained about that. And we're just like, you know what, let's just cook it the way in England. Fair enough. And here it's not bad. Yeah. I mean, we're using black angus beef. You know, we're using quality beef. We have a specific ratio of fat to beef meat. And yeah, well, all the salad has to be fresh. The sauces are made on site. And for me, the Stanley and the Bernie Mac are my two go twos. So the Stanley is probably the answer to a whopper. Very straightforward, simple. Your lettuce, tomato, ketchup, mustard, beef, cheese. The Bernie Mac is what a big Mac is supposed to be. You know, like we make our own creole remoulade and it's on that lettuce. And yeah, it's I like to spend the Bernie Mac with blue cheese sauce and add bacon and add jalapenos. jalapenos and bacon just makes life good for me. So, you know, cheese and bacon makes it. That's right. That's I could take that spice. Yeah. Yeah. That's that's a good one. And then if I'm in the mood for chicken, then it's an easy, OK, do I want spicy chicken or do I just want simple chicken? Because sometimes simple chicken is all I need. You know, sometimes I just want the chicken fillet. I don't need the burger. But then other times it's like, you know what? I need something a little bit more disco today. So I got the dirty self. Yeah, love that. Yeah, I'll always go through phases with every burger on the menu. Thankfully, I haven't had a Frankenstein phase because that thing is next level ridiculous. It's just too big. But I'll I'll bounce between the LDL blow, the Stanley, the Bernie Mac, even Royale would cheese or double up. Like double up is the best way to have a Royale with cheese. The ODB is a bit much for me. If I've been overseas or away for a couple of weeks on end, I'll come back and smash it with an ODB because it's burger awesomeness.  But they're all good. He's he's he's a wizard. And I don't get sick of them either. The trick is not to eat it every day. Yes. That's the hard part for me, especially with a busy lifestyle. You know, like if I have a really busy week, I find myself eating there way too often. Yeah, like three or four times a week. That's that's not good.  Yeah. Who cares? Yeah. And if you're having it like at lunch, and this is just more of a nutritional thing now, you're having it at lunch and you have a big afternoon ahead of you where you're going to be walking running around. That's OK. That's OK. Yeah. But yeah, but that's that's a whole another topic in terms of like nutrition. Like for me, I've I've completely stopped the chicken wings. Oh, have you? Yeah. Did that come with withdrawals? Oh, I still have the chicken wings at home in my air fryer. I just can't do I just can't do canola oil anymore. Yeah, right. And like and this is something like I don't want to talk about too much because, you know, deep fried food is part of the menu. But what I've learned is if there is a way to get, you know, olive oil won't work because the burn it burns too quick. Yeah. But gay. Yeah.  It was affordable enough, right? I bought a jar of gay the other day and for you for thirty five dollars. And like, but but I know that we can reuse it. Yeah, we just filter through it. And it's got a five year shelf life reusable. And you're reusing it. I know I haven't started yet. I need to get all the tools and stuff to do that with. For now, I'll take the L on the on the cost because I just have olive oil, coconut oil and ghee. Yep. Anything else? I try to avoid it and I'm noticing a huge difference. Well, it does show. You know, you've actually lost a lot of weight since we first met last year. A lot of weight. Yeah. Well, because you can't you can't do that thing like when you used to do that. It was like it was pretty epic. It was actually legit. Yeah. But I feel like, you know, for me, I still got a bit of tummy, tummy area in there. But I feel a lot better.  OK, but not because I weeded off of seed oils and vegetable oils. They're the same thing, by the way, look it up. But yeah, it's like, I think what's coming next in the trends of food is not health. You know, remember like the health freak cafe that did last long? And then you always had the vegans and the vegos and the whatever else, the Terrians that they wanted to be. I think the next one is primal, like going back to primal and not carnival. I'm talking like and not keto and not paleo, not paleo. I'm talking like taking out something else. And I think vegetable oils and seed oils are going to be on the chopping block. Oh, like the take out the artificial. Yeah. Yeah, the chemical compounds in there. Right. And and I think like because I went to a restaurant the other day, a reviewed one. It was called My Grill Friend in Midland. Oh, right. And the guy, yeah. The guy was cooking the chicken wings in the oven and then making them crispy inside the air fries. And they tasted amazing. They were great. I want to check that out. Don't want to go to Midland for it because I live no mania. But I was like, cool, that's awesome. And he was making me a chilli filly cheesesteak on the grill and normally has the canola oil. And I was like, that's I'm not going to I'm going to eat that. Yeah. And then he bought some olive oil in there and he used that instead. And I was like, great, this is fine. OK. But yeah, it's it's becoming really hard for me to find some some like good readings out there. Like the way you guys make the burgers. Perfect. Yeah, it's fine. The sauces fine. However, as soon as there's like artificial tomato sauce or mayo, it's like, again, the seed oils, vegetable oils. Yeah. Yeah. But going back to the illness thing, I haven't been sick in over eight years. Wow. I don't get sick. Like I used to say this like four or five years ago. Yeah.     I've never taken a day off as a school teacher. Never. Gee. Yeah. Good employee. Yeah. Hard to find that. But it's like, why, you know, we're looking at genetics and things like that and nutrition. And and it's something that I'm interested in seeing where that goes. What have you done for the last eight years that other people aren't doing? Oh, the big million dollar question. Yeah. Right. I really want to know. I think it's because I haven't dedicated myself to an exact. Program. Yeah. Yeah. Program. But like, I haven't committed to really eating unhealthily. I haven't really committed to drinking every week. It's always been pick my moments. Yeah. And I do notice a bit of like a cough or like a snuff sniffle. Minus my hay fever, which is insane. Yeah. When I have had a few drinking sessions in a row and I very rarely have more than one drinking session in a row, like two at best. Yeah. Mostly always after a holiday where I've had a couple of, you know, how I is, yeah, but no blind, no blinders, no benders. The last time I had a bender, which was a long time ago, like a proper one, you know, like four or five days. I was sick. Yeah. And I haven't had one in that. So maybe that's it. Yeah. You're not letting the immune get beaten up so much. I read I read something this morning in a book. I've started to read. I'll find it eventually. I can't remember the title of it. It's this nutritional book, ancestral eating or something. And it says that, you know, fetal alcohol syndrome. Why does it happen to a child or a person? Because when the mum was pregnant, she had alcohol. What's different to if she had something artificial, like processed foods, processed meats, seed oils while she's pregnant as well? If if alcohol, which is a poison, can do that to a baby. What's to say a vegetable oil or a seed oil can do that in a in a similar way. But it's not fetal alcohol syndrome. It's something else. Yeah, yeah. Other symptoms that I read that.   It's just like organic food everywhere. Yeah, we grow it in the backyard and then we go to the butcher. It literally was, you know, but they got back and grabbed the lamb and here you go. Yeah, fresh off. Yeah, fresh off its legs. Yeah. And yeah, fishing, everything natural. The water's fresh. Yeah. Yeah. And I think that could be it. That could have something to do with it. So, man, like, like obviously genetics, like genetics, you get gifted genetics, but the genetics can be mutated with the wrong for like chemicals whilst in that pregnancy stage or even be before that. Yeah, because then you carry down the genetics from your past, you know, and I'm just like far out. Imagine it's hard to study that, though. Yeah. Unless you look at civilisations and it's actually pretty easy to study it, but just people don't want to listen to it. Yeah. Yeah. And I'm just like, because I love burgers. Yeah. I'm not going to give up burgers. Yeah. But I look at everything in the burger and go, OK, where's that from? Yeah. I mean, it's very, very hard to get organic accreditation. And it's so much more money. Imagine, imagine overnight the government goes, all right, all burger restaurants has to be organic. Yeah.  Oh, yeah. But in terms of the health, it's like the best the best case scenario for health. But realistically, it can't happen. So it's me just now saying that on my current rant, just live your best life, enjoy the foods, but don't have them too much. Yeah. That's right. It's cliche. It's been said before, but with that extra context, I'm hoping that will hit more. Yeah. Because I'll still get a royale. I've got rails this week, but I'm avoiding seed oils as much as I can. Yeah.  I love chips. Yeah. I love sweet potato chips. But man, it's like I reckon one day the air fryer that is going to be an air fryer restaurant could very well happen. Yeah, I would not be surprised.  I'm like, what? You mean an oven? Well, I met a Chinese doctor recently and he actually said that the air fryers are really bad for you. There you go. And it's just like, you just can't win in this game. And I think you tapped on it before. It's like having that variety over the years has probably been the thing. Like your body's had to stay on its toes. I mean, I'm not a nutritionist. I've actually just hired a PT again to hold me accountable and make sure that I can still have a burger a week, you know? And he's like, this is how you do it. You can still have one or two a week, but you've got to watch all those other days, you know? But yeah, it's the variety, I think, is going to be key because it doesn't matter what program you start on, there's going to be so many people on the other side of the fence saying, no, that's not healthy for you. Whether it's whatever is most optimal to you, you know, and people are different and from different areas from different continents and different societies. You know, there's a reason why Asian people, they have the rice and it's fine. I have the rice, I've got to stretch sleep. You know, we're accustomed to it, so it's a genetic thing. But like, I'm obsessed with all those. I'm obsessed with how Italians and French people, they eat a lot of cheese, a lot of bread, pasta, a lot of wine, pasta. I love pasta. It's my crepes tonight. Oh, same. They eat it every day. But they're life expectancy, right? But you look at the pasta they make, because I went to Italy last year versus the pasta we get.  It's so different.   But you get you get the real pasta, you have really study it and you'll notice a difference. That's it. That's the answer. Well, it's always I think like if you're going to go down any kind of path for a little while, it's more important that you focus on the things that you can eat versus the things that you can't eat. Just stay focused on the things that are OK and you should be able to cut out a lot naturally by gravitating towards the things that you should be eating. And in saying that every couple of months, I'm still going to go down to on a Wednesday night and get it all you can eat wings. Yeah, cannot and not cannot suppress that. Yeah, that's the joy.  You have to let yourself live a little like I plugged that one there. Yeah. Thank you. All right, I'll just check that off. But yeah, so finally, it's been good so far. Yeah, let's keep it going. Finally, young fella wanting to start a restaurant, wanting to start a business. What's your three pieces of advice? All right. Don't wear all the hats. You need a team around you. You can't do it all yourself. So more often than not, people are going to fall down because they just think they're a good cook at home. And I can just go in and be a good cook in a kitchen, not thinking about the bookkeeping, the taxes, the insurances, the utilities, the internet, the service, the programs, the pest control, all of that stuff. Like, or maybe you're really good at all these things. And now you're trying to do the cooking as well. Like it's like stick to your core strengths as much as possible. Second one was would be the reporting system. You need to know where your business health is on a weekly basis. If it's any more than that, it can be too late.  By that, it could be you haven't made enough cash to pay the ATO this month. You know, you've just spent the money that you did put aside for the ATO this month. Yeah, weekly reporting would be is critical to our business. And then last but not least, and I don't know if this is Bible, but this has kind of been our mantra is you pay your staff first, supply a second, yourself third. Now, I've been to another school where they're like, always pay yourself first, but you can't pay yourself if you don't have a team and if you don't have suppliers. So make sure you've got them taken care of, because then they will look after you. And I think that might have been what inspired the people like us, our workforce most when we went into covid was we put a message out there telling them we're going to try and keep you employed for as long as we can. But there's no guarantees. And at the time, everyone just thought not this is everyone's going to be sunk from this. And we got a really good reaction from everyone when they heard that commitment from us, they all got on board and we did the ultimate pivot. And we were the first ones to put our hand up and say, we're good for business. And yeah, that that is key. Look after your staff. Love that. That's yeah, now's it. That second one really resonated with me. The weekly reporting. Yeah, weekly reporting. I think I do it a little bit more than a week. Yeah.  I'm just like doing my own thing. I'm after this and this and wearing all the hats. Like I'm glad I've got help and and, you know, making sure they're paid. In the beginning, you have no choice. Yeah, you have to wear all the hats in the beginning. Yeah, exactly. Well, that's how you figure it out and you create the systems and then the systems can be run by someone else. And then you manage the systems whenever there's a gap or a problem that comes up that you've never, you know, handled before. So how could they handle it as well? So yeah, but yeah, it's been a journey. And I'm looking forward to seeing where the tail end of this inflation shit comes out and how we all survive. So looking forward to that. But yeah, have you had? Do you have any shout out for anything before we go? I didn't think about this, but obviously, Al, he's he's the one that has ridden he's been the ride or die buddy throughout all of this, you know, like every up and down it's Al and AJ. AJ has been he was the very first employee when we first opened doors. AJ was the one that was there with Al. I wasn't here for the first six months. I don't think I wasn't in the operational equation. But AJ has been there since day one and still is. Yeah, big shout out to AJ because he's going through a tough time at the moment. And and all of the Royals, Lollas, Alpastore, Jasko stuff, thank you guys. You all do amazing work and you give me a reason to wake up smiling every day. Amazing, amazing. And yeah, and if you guys are ever in Perth, hit up any or all of those venues and leave a five star review. Or don't if you don't leave a review, then that's OK, but just enjoy the food. If it's not five stars, we are a hood burger or meet and run and just put it. Yeah, that's where you can find us. If we're five stars, it's Royals chicken. For everybody at home, all the information you can find about Ken's brands and and Al's Ken and Al's and AJ's brands in the description. If you have any questions, you can leave a comment or I leave a question in Spotify or on YouTube. And yeah, for everyone at home, I hope you have got some value out of the discussion and we'll leave it there. Thanks for coming in. Thank you so much. Good, thanks.


The research into the historical past is a tricky path, but one that leads us to the discoveries of the things that were lost to us as a civilization. We must share these discoveries in an effort to aid the piecing together of the past, and in doing so, we can uncover the things that we have forgotten about. We consider our time to exist around about the most significant event to have happened. To us, this was the birth of Jesus Christ, the last true God to have walked the earth with us. This is the new era that was spawned for us. Jesus gave us the changes needed to adapt our intelligence as we attempt to prosper as a people. He told us to love and understand one another, and it just feels like we have lost our way. And even from these relatively short histories, we are still trying to piece this time together, not because we have forgotten what happened during the time of Christ, but because we are a suspicious civilization, also a forgetful civilization, and only in the physical form can the truths of the past be reinforced for the understanding of all. A recent uncovering of a stunning mosaic of Jesus feeding of the 5000, for example, has only recently been unearthed from this era, reinforcing the event from a mental image and into a physical vision that was explored by the artist of the day, giving a stunning insight into how Jesus was perceived during his life. Archeologists have spent the summer at the site of the burnt church in Hippos. It was destroyed by fire in around the 8th century, and the artifacts were thought lost in the fire. However, this floor mosaic was uniquely preserved in the debris in the aftermath of the fire, and the artwork was locked in time for almost 1400 years in the heart of the Holy Land, overlooking the Sea of Galilee. The mosaic purports to capture one of the miracles referred to in the New Testament, where Jesus used five loaves and two fish to feed 5000 people gathered on the banks of the water. The interpretation of these events have in recent years triggered a whole host of alternative theories, including that Jesus was actually issuing space food to the people. The idea first attracted attention when ancient astronaut theorist compared the feeding of the 5000 in quantity to rations issued to both astronauts in space, but also armies on the ground, suggesting that Jesus had his own supply as a traveler to the earth. But remember guys, these are alternative ideas, fun to entertain, but no serious notion on the matter. A team from the University of Haifa found the Burke Church in 2005, but only began this dig this summer. Head archaeologist Dr. Michael Eisenberg said, there can certainly be different explanations to the descriptions of loaves and the fish in the mosaic, but you cannot ignore the similarity to the descriptions in the New Testament. For example, from the fact that the New Testament has a description of five loaves in a basket, or the two fish depicted in the apse, as we find in the mosaic. He added that the generally accepted location of the miracle performed by Christ may have to be reconsidered in light of the new evidence. The historian said, nowadays we tend to regard the Church of the multiplication on the northwest of the Sea of Galilee as the location of the miracle, but with careful reading of the New Testament, it is evident that it might have taken place north of Hippos within the city's region. According to scripture, after the miracle, Jesus crossed the water to the northwest of the Sea of Galilee, so that the miracle had to take place at the place where he began the crossing, rather than at the place he finished it. In addition, the mosaic at the Burnt Church has a depiction of 12 baskets, and the New Testament also describes the disciples who, at the end of the miracle, were left with 12 baskets of bread and fish. There is no doubt that the local community was well familiar with the two miracles of feeding the multitude, and perhaps knew their estimated location better than us. After centuries of falling into the hands of several empires and religious groups, Hippos was abandoned in around the year 600 when a natural disaster thought to be an earthquake devastated the hilltop city. What do you guys think about this anyway? Comments below, and as always, thank you for watching.


Last class I traced the origins of the term probability and we saw the historical development of the definitions of probability, the methods of calculation of the probability. We have seen that historically the problems that were considered they were of nature in which we can consider a mathematical definition or you can say so called classical definition. We had games of chance and dice throwing tossing of a coin and so on, where we could use the definition which was classical definition where we have a finite number of elements in the sample space and the outcomes are considered to be equally likely. Later on it was discovered that this definition is quite restricted and it cannot be used forseveral kind of phenomena for which we need the probabilistic statements. A more practical definition was the so called empirical definition or a statistical definition of probability which is based on the evidence. That means, how many times over a period of time a particular event occurs. So, looking at the proportion if this proportion is stabilizing to a certain number, we define that as a empirical definition of probability. However, it was found that even this definition has certain inadequacies and therefore, later on a firm measure theoretic definition of probability was given by A and Karl-Mogorov. It was called the axiomatic definition and in the last lecture towards then I introduced this definition. Just to recall the terms here, we have a random experiment which results in a sample space omega and we consider a class of subsets of omega which is satisfying certain conditions and we called it a sigma field a sigma field of subsets of omega. Based on this, we have defined p as the probability function. This is defined as a probability function on omega b p and this is satisfying this satisfies the axioms of probability the 3 axioms. So, we can say the 3 axioms of probability are satisfied here. So, we will call omega b p as a probability space. So, let us look at our structure. We have a random experiment on the basis of the random experiment the possible outcomes which are of interest to us they are collected in a sample space called omega and we consider the a class of subsets of omega which satisfies certain conditions as we recollect from our last lecture it is a sigma field and then on this we define p as a probability function which satisfies the 3 axioms of probability. Just to recollect what we did it in the last class let me show up the slide for the definition of probability it is as follows. We have probability to be a non-negative function the probability of the full space is equal to 1 and if we are considering a pair wise disjoint events then the probability of their union is equal to sum of the probabilities. So, these are the 3 basic axioms of the axiomatic definition of probability. So, this is the so called axiomatic definition axiomatic definition of probability. So, now when we say that omega b p is a probability space this is satisfying the 3 axioms that were given there. Now, let us look at certain laws or certain properties that this probability function will have. So, let us look at certain properties of the probability function. These are actually consequences of of the axiomatic definition axiomatic definition of probability. The first consequence is that the probability of the empty set is 0 phi denotes the null event or the impossible event as we defined earlier. Note that we must expect that the probability of impossible event should be 0. Now, what we are saying is that this is consistent with our axioms.  Consider say E 1 is equal to say certain set here say A and E 2 E 3 and so on this is equal to say phi in axiom 3. If we do that we get probability of E 1 union E 2 union and so on that will become A on the left hand side on the right hand side it will be probability of E 1 plus probability of phi plus probability of phi and so on. Now, we can this probability of A is a non negative number. So, we are saying that. So, we can actually remove this number from here by considering say A is equal to omega then what will happen you can have P omega on both the sides. So, you can cancel. So, you get P phi plus P phi is equal to 0 this means P phi is actually 0. Let us look at the second consequence if E 1 E 2 E n or pair wise disjoint sets in B then probability of union E i i is equal to 1 to n is equal to sigma probability of E i. So, let us compare it with the third axiom here. If we have any collection of pair wise disjoint sets then the probability of union is equal to sum of the probabilities. Now, in this axiom if we take only a finite number here and the remaining ones I substitute as phi then this is reducing to this statement. So, let us look at a third statement P is a monotone function that is if A is a subset of B then probability of A is less than or equal to probability of B. Once again you can easily construct a proof here. Let us consider say this set as B and A as a subset then basically what you are having that B is actually equal to A union B minus A. Now, this is a disjoint thing. So, probability of B is equal to probability of A plus probability of B minus A. So, since this is a nonnegative term you can conclude that probability of A is less than or equal to probability of B. So, it is a monotone function some simple consequences you can see probability of E complement will be equal to 1 minus probability of E for all E that is the probability of complement is 1 minus the probability of the original set. Similarly, probability of so you can also say that if I consider say A and B are any 2 events then probability of A union B is equal to probability of A plus probability of B minus probability of A intersection B. This is actually called addition rule of probability. The proof is again very simple you can look at a sketch by using Venn diagrams. Suppose I have A event here and B event here and if I am looking at A union B then A union B can be written as A plus this portion of B which is actually B minus A intersection B. So, the probability of A union B becomes probability of A plus probability of B minus probability of A intersection B. Now, this result one can look at generalization. Suppose in place of 2 I have 3 events say A B C then in that case if A B C are any 3 events then probability of A union B union C is equal to probability of A plus probability of B plus probability of C minus probability of A intersection B minus probability of B intersection C minus probability of C intersection A plus probability of A intersection B intersection C. Now, naturally one may so what does it denote actually as we have explained earlier this is probability of occurrence of either A or B or both. Similarly, here it will mean probability of occurrence of at least one of A B and C. So, naturally one will be interested in finding out the probabilities of occurrence of at least one of n number of events. So, that gives us a general addition rule. If A 1, A 2, A n are any events in B then probability of union A i, i is equal to 1 to n probability of A i intersection A j probability of A i intersection A j intersection A k and so on plus minus 1 to the power n plus 1 probability of intersection A i, i is equal to 1 to n. So, one can actually prove these results by induction because the proof of this is almost trivial here and extension of this you can use by considering A union B and C and then splitting and then doing it twice. Similarly, for proving this result you can do it by induction. In this particular course I would be skipping the proofs because I have to cover various topics which are to be used by scientists and engineers. So, if any user is interested in the proofs. So, one can look at the differences which are given here in the syllabus and also you can look at the other lectures which are available on probability and statistics by myself. So, those lectures cover the proofs of these facts here. Here I will be only telling the main rules which will be used by the users which are applied scientists and engineers who will be making use of the results of probability theory. Let me give an example here of some elementary probability problems. The probability of getting two cards of the same type say two kings, two queens etcetera. Two cards of the same type irrespective of their colour symbol in the first 13 cards dealt from a well shuffled pack of cards. So, let us look at the conditions of the experiment. We have a well shuffled pack of 52 cards that means, we have 13 cards of heart, 13 cards of spirit, 13 cards of club and 13 cards of diamond starting from 1 to 10 numbers and then 11 is jack, 12 is queen and 13 is king. So, what is the probability that we will be drawing two cards of the same type in this? So, let us consider this. Now there are two cards of the same type. So, how many such possibilities are there? Since we have 13 different numbers for example, 1, 2, 3 and so on. So, there are 13 possibilities of two same cards ok. Now these can be done in now for each there are four cards. So, 4 c 2 is the number of possibilities and out of this 13 any of them can be done. So, this is possible in 4 c 2 into 13 ways. Now you have 11 more cards. So, they should all be distinct because we are putting that only two cards are same type. So, remaining 11 cards must be all distinct. So, this can be done in 4 to the power 11 ways. Now we have chosen one type here. So, for which two cards are there? Now out of remaining 12 type 11 have to be chosen. So, that can be done in 12 c 1 ways. Now this selection of 11 cards from 12 types can be done in 12 c 11 ways. So, the required probability it is 4 c 2 into 13 into 4 to the power 11 into 12 c 11 and total number of ways of choosing 13 cards out of the pack of 52 is 52 c 13. So, this number can be calculated and this is approximately 0.0062. Let us take another example in a study of a group of 1000 subscribers to a certain magazine the following data is recorded.  Now so, we have considered the data with respect to profession marriage status and education. Out of this then 42 are professional college graduates 147 married college graduates 86 married professionals and 25 married professional college graduates. Find the probability that a randomly selected subscriber will be at least one of professional married college graduate. That means he will be satisfying at least one by one of the properties. Now is there is there a fallacy in the data. So, we are asking an additional inquiry here let us see. Suppose I define the event A as that the person has a person is a professional say B is the event that person is married say C is the event that he is a college graduate. Then basically we are interested in what is the probability of A union B union C. Now according to the addition rule this will be probability of A plus probability of B plus probability of C minus probability of A intersection B minus probability of B intersection C minus probability of C intersection A plus probability of A intersection B intersection C. Now this is equal to now number of professionals is 312. So, this will become 312 by 1000 plus married persons are 470. So, it will become 470 by 1000. Then the number of college graduates is 525 and like that we substitute all the values A intersection B is the married professionals. So, that is we have 42 then we have married college graduates that is this is 86 year. Then we have B intersection C that is married college graduates that is 147 then we have professional college graduates. So, we have 42 then we have A intersection B intersection C that is married professional college graduates that is 25 by 1000. Now if you look at this this turns out to be 1057 by 1000 which is obviously greater than 1. So, the data is inconsistent because you cannot have the probability greater than 1. So, using the addition rule we are able to detect fallacy in the given data. Now we look at some further aspects of the rules of probability we define something what is called conditional probability it is something like this. If we consider here that what is the probability that a person is a professional we are giving the answer it is 312 by 1000. But suppose I ask the question what is the probability that the randomly selected person is a professional given that he is already married. In that case I will have to look at the number of persons who are already married among them how many are professionals and therefore, the answer will become 86 by 470. Similarly, if you want to find out what is the probability that the person is a professional given that he is a college graduate. So, in that case I have to look at all the college graduates and among them how many are professionals. So, we have only 42 such things. So, we have 42 by 525 rather than 312. That means, if we apply a condition in our random experiment then the probability of the original event may change this is called the concept of conditional probability.  Then the probability of then the conditional probability of an event e given that event f has already occurred is defined probability of e given f. So, this is the notation of conditional probability this is not e divided by f it is e given f. So, probability of e intersection f divided by probability of f one can easily check that this is a valid probability function. It can be easily checked that this conditional function is a valid probability function. Now, let us look at this consequences of this definition also. See from here we can see that the conditional probability is equal to the probability of simultaneous occurrence of two events divided by probability of the other event which is conditioning event. So, from here we can also write probability of e intersection f is equal to probability of f into probability of e given f. Also if probability of e is positive we may write probability of e intersection f is equal to probability of e into probability of f given e. So, these statements this is called multiplicative probability or multiplication rule of probability this is the multiplication rule of the probability. Now, easily one can see that in place of two events if we have three events four events and so on then this type of statement can be further extended. So, we have as a consequence a general multiplication rule let e 1 e 2 e n be n events with probability of each of them actually positive. So, I am taking the smallest one to be positive then probability of intersection e i that is the simultaneous occurrence of each of them is equal to probability of e 1 into probability of e 2 given e 1 into probability of e 3 given e 1 intersection e 2 and so on probability of e n given intersection e i i is equal to 1 to n minus 1. One can again prove by induction this thing I am skipping the proof here. Now, let us look at further consequences of this conditioning. Many times we are looking at the phenomena in the following fashion. Let us consider certain event for example, we are looking at the death of a person that means, we are looking at the records of the deaths in a particular locality. So, for example, it could be a city municipality data. Now, we may like to look at the causes of the death. So, a person might have died due to a disease he might have died due to an accident and so on so forth. And even in the diseases one may have one may die due to a lung disease one may die due to a kidney disease or one may die due to a liver disease etcetera. So, in that case if we are looking at the event death of a person what is the probability of the death among the total population at a certain age for example, then we can classify it according to the different causes. So, this is called the you can say the total probability that means, the total probability of a particular event can be split into the probability of that event caused by something caused by another cause and so on. So, we have theorem of theorem of total probability. So, let E 1 E 2 E n be n events such that E i intersection E j is equal to phi for all i not equal to j and union of E i is equal to omega. So, basically what we are saying is that the events are mutually exclusive exhaustive. So, now for any event A probability of A can be written as sigma probability of A given E i into probability of E i. Here we are assuming that the probability of E i is positive for each i. Let me explain the proof here at least for this statement here. See let us write down probability of A we can consider it as probability of A intersection the full space because any event is a subset of the full space and this you can write as A intersection since A i's are E i's are exhaustive we can write omega as union of E i's. So, this is becoming probability of union A intersection E i, i is equal to 1 to n. Now this you can consider see you have mutually exclusive events say E 1 E 2 E n etcetera ok and this is some event A and if A is disjoint with if E i's are disjoint and I consider say A is any set then A intersection E 1 A intersection E 2 A intersection E 3 and so on they will also be disjoint. So, this will become probability of because the probability is additive. Now on this we can apply the multiplication rule. So, this becomes probability of A given E i into probability of E i is equal to 1 to n. Now a further consequence of this is the famous Bayes theorem which is named after Reverend Thomas Bayes. So, we have the same set up here. Let E 1 E 2 E n be events with probability of E i is positive E i intersection E j is equal to phi for all i not equal to j and union E i is equal to omega. Let A be any event with probability of A positive then probability of E i given A it is equal to probability of A given E i into probability of E i divided by sigma probability of A given E j into probability of E j j is equal to 1 to n. So, this is called then posterior probability this is called then prior probability that means we have the prior probability of the causes and also the conditional probability of an event given those causes. Then we can calculate suppose we know that what is the event that has actually occurred then what is the posterior probability that means if we know the effect then what was the cause we can find out the probability of the cause. So, this is a so called Bayes theorem because it is named after Reverend Thomas Bayes who and it was published in 1763. There are very interesting consequences of this result I can explain through certain example. Let us consider a survey of people in a given region showed that 25 percent of people drank regularly. The probability of death due to liver disease given that a person drank regularly was 6 times the probability of death due to liver disease given that a person did not drink did not drink regularly. The probability of death due to liver disease in the region is 0.005. If a person dies due to liver disease what is the probability that he or she drank regularly. So, now you can see that the death may be caused by a liver disease and for the liver disease the cause may be drinking regularly or not. Now we know that the person dies due to liver disease. So, we are looking at the posterior probability of whether he was a regular Dunkard or not. So, let us define we will apply this Bayes theorem here. Let us define the events here. Suppose I consider let A be the event that person drinks regularly and let us consider B be the event that death is due to liver disease. Now, what is given? It is given that probability of B given A that is the death is due to liver disease is 6 times given death is due to liver disease given that the person is a regular Dunkard is 6 times the probability of death due to liver disease given that he is not a regular Drinker. Let us put say this equal to alpha. Also it is given that probability of A that is percent drinks regularly is because it is given that 25 percent of the persons drink regularly. So, 0.25 and also the probability of death due to liver disease is 0.005. So, we can apply the theorem of total probability. So, probability of B is equal to probability of B given A into probability of A plus probability of B given A complement into probability of A complement. Now, we have assumed that the probability of B given A is equal to alpha. So, this becomes alpha by 4 plus 3 by 4 probability of A complement is 3 by 4 and B given A complement is equal to alpha by 6 and probability of B is equal to 0.005. So, from here you can get alpha is equal to 8 by 3 into 0.005 that means, the probability of death due to liver disease given that he is a regular Drinker that will be equal to 8 by 3 into 0.005. Now, let us look at our event what is the probability of that he drank regularly given that he dies due to a liver disease. So, here we can apply base theorem. So, that is equal to alpha divided by 4 into 0.005 that is equal to 2 by 3 because alpha we have already calculated to be equal to 8 by 3 into 0.005. So, if we substitute it here we will get 2 by 3. So, if a person dies due to liver disease then there is a high chance that he is actually he was a regular Drinker. Let us take a couple of more problems of similar nature here. A research scholar asked her guide to give a letter of recommendation. She estimates that the probability that she will get the job is 0.9 with a strong letter, 0.6 with a medium letter and 0.1 with a weak letter. She also believes that the letter will be a strong medium or weak with the respective probabilities 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1. What is the probability? The letter was strong given that she got the job.  Let us consider B 1 as the event that the letter is a strong recommendation letter, B 2 is the event that medium recalator and B 3 is the event a weak recommendation letter. So, it is given that probability of B 1 is 0.6, probability of B 2 is 0.3, probability of B 3 is 0.1. Also it is given that probability of A given B 1 is 0.9, probability of A given B 2 is 0.6 and probability of A given B 3 is equal to 0.1. We are asked to find out what is the probability of B 1 given A. That is the probability that letter was strong given that she got the job. So, if we apply the Bayes theorem here we will get probability of A given B 1 into probability of B 1 divided by summation probability of A given B j into probability of B j, j is equal to 1 to 3. So, this is equal to 0.9 into 0.6 divided by 0.9 into 0.6 plus 0.6 into 0.3 plus 0.1 into 0.1. So, if we evaluate this turns out to be simply 54 by 73 or 0.7397. So, there is a 74 percent of chance that actually the letter was strong if we already know that she got a job here. Now, let me also introduce the concept of independence of events. So, here we have seen that the conditioning alters the original probabilities. Let us look at here. For example, what is the probability of B 1 that is 0.6, but if I consider conditioning by A it turns out to be 0.7397 ok. In a similar way we can look at the effect on probability of B 2 and so on. Similarly, in one of the previous problems if you look at probability of A was actually 0.25 that means, the person is a regular drunker, but if we know that he died due to liver disease then what is the probability that he was a regular drunker then that probability is quite high its 2 by 3. So, you can see that the effect of conditioning changes the original probability. Now, there may be cases where the conditioning does not change the it can happen if the two events are quite unrelated. For example, if you consider tossing of a coin and tossing of a dice then what is outcome of the tossing of coin may not have anything to do with the tossing of a that is the outcome of the tossing of a dice. So, the two events are totally independent. So, using this we define the concept of independence as follows. So, as you can see here that we are considering that if the event B has no effect on happening of A then A and B will be independent or you can say A will be independent of B. So, we can write like this that probability of A given B is equal to probability of B then we will say that A is independent of happening of however, if we write it in a elaborate fashion what does it mean? It means probability of A intersection B divided by probability of B sorry this is probability of A here is equal to probability of A. So, this means probability of A intersection B is equal to probability of A into probability of B. Now, this definition is more symmetric because if we say A is independent of B we should also say that B is independent of A. So, we define then we say events A and B are independent if probability of A intersection B is equal to probability of A into probability of B. Now, immediately one can look for the generalization of this. For example, if we have three events A, B, C are independent then we should have probability of A intersection B is equal to probability of A into probability of B. We should have probability of B intersection C is equal to probability of B into probability of C. Probability of C intersection A we should have equal to probability of C into probability of A and probability of A intersection B intersection C is equal to probability of E into probability B into probability of C. actually the condition when we take 2 events at a time then that they are called pair wise independent and when all of them are satisfied then it is called mutually independent . So, in general then we can define n events a 1 a 2 a n are said to be independent if I consider every pair a i intersection a j that is equal to probability of a i into probability of a j for all i not equal to j. If we consider probability of a i intersection a j intersection a k that should be equal to probability of a i into probability of a j into probability of a k i j k must not be equal and so on. Probability of intersection a i i is equal to 1 to n must be equal to the product of all the probabilities basically these are 2 to the power n minus n minus 1 conditions. So, when this has two types of uses one is that we have a complex experiment and we may like to check whether the events are independent. On the other hand we consider independent events and then using them we have a complex event for which we want to find out the probability and then we can make use of the concept of independence in actual calculation of the probabilities of those events. We also consider what is known as independent experiments. So, here we have say omega 1 b 1 p 1 as one probability space and another probability space is omega 2 b 2 p 2 this is another probability space. So, for example, it could mean that we are considering say we are looking at say longevity of persons in a particular country say India and then we consider the longevity of persons in say a country in Europe say for example, France and in that case if we have considered sampling of persons in India and in France then that is considered to be independent. That means, the longevity of the persons in India and then we calculate various kind of events what is the probability that the age average age or average longevity is less than 50 more than 50 between 55 to 60 and so on in India it will have nothing to do with the similar kind of events in the another country say France. So, this is independent experiments and certainly when we want to join the events in India and France then we can make a complex event, but by using the independence we can resolve them and find out the probabilities of the corresponding events. So, we have considered various rules of probability there are certain other things also for example, limiting probabilities if we have a sequence of events and we can consider say limiting probability what is the probability of the limit of that sequence of sets then under certain conditions it can be proved that it will be equal to limit of the probabilities of that sequence. So, probability satisfies various nice properties for example, we have seen additivity, general addition rule, multiplication rule, total probability, limiting probability and so on. In the following lectures I will introduce to random variables and their distributions and we will move over to special discrete and continuous distributions.


What's going on everyone? Got Kyle here relating to sports, got two boxes for Victor F. With two Bowman Megas. Good luck, Mr. Victor. Let's see what we got. Twenty-three Bowman Crohn. I think we'll do another crown team all for SH after as well. Still not a very long queue if anybody wants to get a personal going. Oh boy. My home's picked now. Not good, not good. I saw her. She scored. Rashi rice. He's been like the only bright spot so this year pretty much, man. Nato. Scherzer. Vato on the base. We're all rookies and vets on these so we'll go quickly through them. Get to the silver packs. Ungood. That's a fact, Scott. Badly rookie. Abrams. Taj Bradley. The guy that went to get all the food is the guy that doesn't have some of his stuff in the bag. I love it. Is that Matt? Yep. Gabe Moreno. Oh, Bofa. Bofa. Silver. I think you might get it. I think you might get it today. They're not looking good. Sebastian Walcott first. Shimmer. Got a rookie ascension. Nice one there. Jordan Walker. First, Astorus and Daverson Gutierrez. Jackson Churio. There's Edwin Rodriguez. We've got the 250. Justin Crawford. Or the 299, sorry. Justin Crawford. Jackson Merrill. And Jader Aranamo. All righty. Good luck on the second one here, Victor. I'm guessing that means they're one game behind or in front of the Patriots at the moment. Hmm. Yeah. I mean, you might as well take a spot up in the draft. You know, John Daly the second. Bryce Harper. Weeds. Drew Waters. And now for the Silvers. Victor. Alfredo Dono first. Janichi Valdez. There's an iconic Devers. Caminero and Sarmiento. First and last. Silver. Good luck. Victor. Jacob Melton. There's a Weldon, Francisca. There's a Jackson Holiday. Nice one there. Only pink to 199. Top prospect in baseball right now. And Jayce Young on the back. All righty there, Mr. Victor. That'll do it for your two boxes of Bowman Draft Mega. Appreciate you, my man. We'll get those right out to you.