This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan duel podcast network and Number fire comm it is college football week here on covering the spread earlier this week We were talking highs and voting today. We're talking a little college football and future bets. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire comm joined here as always by Ed Fang of the power rank comm You can follow him on Twitter at the power rank Ed Happy college football week part two on tap for today talking some college football futures I'm pumped for the season now less than one month away. How you doing today? I'm doing great this morning. I always love college football It's kind of where I first I know I guess that's the first I do in NFL numbers But love the college football game And excited to talk about things with you as always Jim This is a sports betting show, right? Okay. Yeah. Yeah, so I Feel like that means we should make maybe a wager on a game Just okay wager between the two of us and your school Northwestern is traveling out to one of my schools Stanford to open up the season Stanford is a six and a half point favorite a little bit of home field My numbers actually have Northwestern ranked ahead of Stanford. I hopefully we'll get into that a little bit interesting But you know the odds are towards Stanford. I was figuring this could be like a Gear type bet, you know, like you were sure of Stanford wins I wear a Northwestern shirt although I might have to wear like a Northwestern shirt for a couple episodes Just given the odds Well, oh What if you give me the points and we just make it straight up and we make it like, you know, based on the spread Yeah, we could we could do that too. I would take six and a half. I think that's pretty fair. I Mentioned before that I am So I was sort of scared about Northwestern this year because they did lose three offensive line starters I'm excited about Hunter Johnson as a quarterback And I think that's gonna be pretty fun But you know losing those three linemen does worry me But six and a half points is interesting. Last time they played was 2015 Christian McCaffrey Kevin Hogan year at Northwestern and right and you Terrible dude, they kind of disrupted some things there. I think I think the grass was like six feet tall Because they knew that McCaffrey would just shred them if it weren't six feet tall and that may have played a factor Justin yeah, that was also I Mean, I think it was like a noon kick at central time Which is obviously what you should do when you're inviting a Pac-12 team, you know to come east to open up the season Yeah, man, that was that was brutal. It was not a noon kick. It was 11 o'clock in the morning It was actually an hour earlier And those were always the worst ones in college because like you have to get to the stadium And it's like a mile off campus and you have to get there by 11 o'clock You're tired because it's Saturday morning in in November It's cold and it's even in it's 11 o'clock So those are not fun, but when you're playing Stanford a little bit extra buzz And I think that you know, I was very happy with the way things worked out there And I was very happy that McCaffrey may not have been fully awake just yet All right, so t-shirt on the show a TS six and a half points. Yes, I think six and a half is a good number I will take that so if Northwestern loses by less or by six or fewer points Or wins then at S to wear Northwestern shirt if Stanford wins by seven or more points. I am wearing a Stanford shirt And I would kind of like to have a Stanford shirt anyway, so I'm not really opposed to this I think this is actually a this is a pretty good one And I think it'll give me a little bit extra a little bit extra motivation to watch that game and have a little bit of fun I think this is this I like these friendly wages. This is fun Yeah, well, and I'm gonna get laughed at with my Northwestern shirt around Ann Arbor, but so be it That's all about let's not make any bets on Michigan against Northwestern because that has not gone. Well They've had a lot of ugly games and a lot of bad games, so let's man I'm glad to stand for did not Michigan. I'll say all right. No, that's fair. No But I mean Northwestern is giving Michigan some fits over the years. Yeah, and last year, so yeah I just have these awful flashbacks to I don't remember what year was I think it was 2014 when they went to overtime and Trevor Simeon, I think it was on a two-point conversion attempt He had a rollout towards the right. He tried to stop and because it was raining He just slid on his butt and the game was just over like that was that was the end of the game Somehow he got drafted and somehow he's actually played the NFL But like whenever I think of Simeon with with Northwestern, that's the first thing that pops out my mind They've had some pretty ugly games.  So that's true It could always be worse. Absolutely One quick reminder once again that if you missed our our podcast back on Monday with Edward e-grass He dropped a lot of really good information about betting on the Heisman historical trends some guys He likes for this you can find that podcast by searching for covering the spread on Spotify Apple podcast Soundcloud Stitcher wherever you get your podcast You can find that and while you are there especially on Apple make sure you leave a rating and a review because those help us out a Ton a lot of you have already done so so thank you to those of you who have but those are huge for a special to gear up for College football season in the NFL season. Thank you for those who have left those already and a big future Thank you to those of you who do leave them going forward Apple podcast where you can find Covering the spread as mentioned today. We're going through college football futures Which while we had to get a little northwestern versus Stanford talk in there We're gonna talk with Ed about what his numbers say at the power rank and where he finds an advantageous bets for 2019 and if you want to get in on the action check out the Fandall sportsbook and place your first bet today if you lose Fandall will give you a refund of up to $500 in site credit visit sportsbook.fandall.com for more details terms and conditions apply Must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey or now, Pennsylvania to place those bets gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER Covering the present So let's dive on in now to covering the present taking a look at some of the numbers Ed has over at the power rank and Ed I want to pick your brain a little bit first here because as someone who has never built a college football model I'm very curious about how things work So first of all, you know, how long have you been doing these over at the power rank? And what's the process for building out these rankings that you have for all of the FPS teams? Yeah, so I've been doing this since 2013. Those are the earliest rankings that I have so it's about six years and It's a pretty simple regression model. It's multi-linear regression Something you probably do on Google sheets But it's based on this idea in college football that teams tend to persist from year to year Alabama is always going to have winning tradition and financial resources and Nick Saban and rice has none of those things so it's very unlikely that Alabama and rice are going to trade places in the in the college football pecking order and You know, if you've been good over the past couple years, that's pretty good predictor of You're being good next season And so the the primary ingredient in the model is how the team has performed over the past four years and The regression model figures out what the waiting is for those particular years and the way I evaluate team performance is by my team rankings and this is kind of how I got in the business originally so it just Looks at it takes margin victory in games and adjust for strength of schedule Obviously strength of schedule is a huge thing in college football where there's varying conference strengths from the SEC is Playing the SEC is much different from playing in the Sun Belt So and that's kind of where my math chops kind of come into play Good team rankings. I have a good estimate of where a program has been over the last four years That's the first thing in my model And then the next thing is turnovers. So your team rating can be pretty good if you have a very positive turnover margin my So so essentially the model says, you know, if you were plus 30 in turnovers last year That's unlikely to continue plus 30 probably means your team ranking was higher than it should have been And so it makes an adjustment for that and then the last factor that goes in the model is returning stars It's just one number and obviously if you have more returning starters you tend to perform better on the field the next year and Over the last five years It's a simple model It could be improved on and I do plan to do that one of these years but it's predicted the winner straight up and over 70 percent of college football games Over the last five years and this is only FBS versus FBS games. So the model doesn't do FCS games. So, you know, it's not including those cupcake games in that 70% one-rate You're not padding the stats with those SCS teams and one of the big keys to this model And this is available publicly on the powerink.com as you can see the predicted margin of victory against an average team is That the main driver when you build out your win total projections because the wind total projections are a separate thing And you know, you can see right a wind total projection for each team Is that predicted margin of victory the main driver behind those wind total project projections? Yeah, absolutely So, you know, you can be yeah, let's just take an example Let's do that Stanford at Northwestern game. Yeah, I forget exactly what the rating difference was But I think Northwestern was better by a point. Let's say so Because I had the rankings up here on the site right now Stanford is 4.39 and Northwestern is 5.14. So less than a point between the two teams against an average team So Stanford is gonna have home field. We'll just assume that's three points out there So Stanford is gonna be favored by 2.2 ish points So that margin of victory Implies a particular win probability for Stanford not a probably 55 56 percent and then you get your win totals You assume that every game is independent of every other game and you add up the win probabilities to get The win total and that's what you can get in my 2019 college football win totals report And when you're trying to build out, you know, like, you know Look at which bets you like most are you trying to stick to the ones that are that deviate the heaviest? from What the actual win totals are or are you looking for anything in particular? Are you just looking like so? Nebraska was one In the private example because you gave reasons why maybe your model is under under rating them But are you just looking for the extremes mostly? yeah so my approach to using analytics to bet is to look for those extremes and then understand where your model is wrong and You know research factors like injuries and then decide whether you want to make a bet and That's gonna happen for games and that certainly happens for win totals as well One thing I do want to say about win totals is that This is more true in the NFL than it is in college football, but you know, I'm always it Especially for this model. It's it's a Russia regression based model So it's gonna be better at predicting that a team is not Likely to fill up the hype, you know And the whole idea is that you're gonna regress to some mean and and in this model's case You're gonna regress to where your program's been over the last four years So that's why the model kind of hates Texas this year and I think that I think is right on there the model doesn't like Nebraska because They haven't really performed that well over the last four years. I'm a little bit more bullish on Nebraska as well but I guess I'm saying this to say that You know, especially in wind totals, especially looking for value you kind of want to look for teams that are, you know, like hyped teams that are kind of below Where the model says they're below a very high wind total So Texas nine and a half women's something like that And then you're looking for regression for like those bottom feeder teams, too, right? So I mean if you have a team that is That two and a half wins on the wind total market the model is probably gonna say something higher and that just means That regression it means really powerful So, so, you know, I mean bet over low wind totals bet under high wind totals and and that's even more true in the NFL And I think that's very broadly applicable to just betting in general. It's trying to spot regression and spot outliers and stuff like that And I think also one thing you talked about that's important is kind of knowing Where your model may under or overrate things and that's something I've tried to do a lot with NASCAR is like I want to know You know, I would say deficiencies in my model That's the way I would phrase it for me personally and I don't think it's a deficiency if your model doesn't fully account for something But more so just you want to know Where those differentiations may lie essentially. Yeah, no, yeah, I mean you have to understand your model and and You know, we might not have the financial crisis in 2008 if some of those guys understood the limitations of the model So so this is just very important In general and actually I also want to just let me throw in, you know, you can try to do the same thing For the NFL That I do with college football. It doesn't work It gives you crap just because it rests so hard in the NFL from year to year that it It's meaningless to look at right three or four years of how an NFL team is performed and try to project this season So I have outside circumstances matter a lot less there than yeah Well, and you just have like, I mean the margins are so thin in the NFL Right. I mean being you know being just with the salary cap and everything. It's just it All those teams are pushed very hard towards average And it's just hard for this kind of a Russian model get any insight based on, you know Last year's data or two years dive in here to what your numbers say for this year because Clemson and Alabama have basically run the world the past couple of years They've won four or four consecutive championships between the two of them. They both have elite quarterbacks returning we just talked about both those guys on Monday with Edward and I think that obviously these are gonna be the top two teams based on pretty much any model But how far are those two teams ahead of the pack based on your numbers? I mean an insane amount. I mean, I haven't seen any team as high as Clemson I think they're 27 points better than FBS average for this particular Russian model that is an insane number. They usually the top team is 21 22 points and that's usually Alabama You know, there's always some fortuitousness that that comes into a ranking that high I mean, I think Clemson all do respect great respect for the program, but They played their best game against Alabama in that championship game. That's really pushing up their rating from last year You know, they got some turnover breaks in that game as well so You know regression to mean says that's probably a little bit too high But that's also what you know what the model says and Alabama is not too far behind them There are a couple points below. I think you know the model right now would predict Clemson by about three points on a neutral field But yeah, those two teams are way ahead and I don't think you can Legitimate look at these programs with the caliber of quarterback. They're bringing back and argue with that So right now Clemson is plus 170 a Fandalsports book to win the championship Alabama plus 275 Because they are so far ahead of the pack. Would you be? Willing to bets either them at those numbers or do you think that those numbers are appropriate based on? What your numbers say? Yeah, I'm gonna have to take a pass on that right now Jim Just because like I can actually crank those numbers out. I just haven't had a chance to do that A couple weeks we can we can talk about it one thing you shouldn't note. I mean the odds on Clemson are a lot shorter I mean they they play such a weaker schedule than Alabama that even if you assume that they're at the same level You you'd have to give higher odds to Clemson and you can see that in their playoff odds too on on the Fandalsports book Right interesting So what are some teams that your model likes more than the national rankings when you because we did see the national ranking? Just come out this week So we kind of have a gauge of what the public thinks and what the voters think of various teams Are there any major deviations between your rankings and what they're saying? Yeah, I mean let me give you two teams that I that I think are interesting You know one one that I agree with and one that I don't and so LSU my model has a third It's too high. I mean right now you you have to kind of put Georgia as the third team behind Clemson in Alabama, I presume that's what the the rankings did I didn't get a chance to take a look at those Jim. I'll pull them up But what do you think about LSU? Yeah, LSU is you know, we're going into the year three of coach O and They obviously had a great year last year and you can't take anything away from them But I really just think they have limited upside. I'm not sold on Joe Burrow as a quarterback They were 39th in the nation when I look at adjusted yards per attempt last year So and then you know what is really keeping that program together is the defensive side of the ball Dave veranda is I Mean the best defensive coordinator I mean one of the best if not the best defensive quarter in the nation defensive coordinator in the nation He did lose two pretty key players on that team, but gets a lot of his starters back I'm in this stage where I'm just kind of waiting for the the coach Oda to collapse a little bit. So I kind of just don't trust him as a coach clearly a good recruiter clearly a charismatic guy but He's really not a coach and this is not really not a quarterback that I think is is really gonna be testing Alabama and the SEC West So LSU is seventh in this opening rankings your ratings have them third. Yeah, I'm guessing you're putting them closer to their national rankings Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I don't think LSU's so so this is the case where I don't believe the model Okay, a case where I might believe the model a little bit more that might be surprising is Auburn so their ninth In the model their defense was 20th when I look at adjusted yards for play last year They get most of those guys on that side of the ball back They bring all their offensive line back And then just got to figure out who's gonna play the quarterback position, right? No big worries there We talked about this a little bit on the show Monday, right? Yeah that in terms of Whoever starts playing quarterback for them might as well take a Take a flyer on them for the Heisman. So, I mean Auburn is a program where the cupboard is always full there's always talent there and They've been a roller coaster of a program because they can have bad years But there's always the talent for them to really break through night might be too high My model actually had them at fifth last year I didn't know whether to believe that or not turned out that I shouldn't have believed that But like I said again, like it's it's this model You know when this model says a team is going to be good Compared to the national rankings I don't tend to believe that compared to when a team is going to be overrated Okay, the models are really good at picking teams that are going to be overrated I've written a three overrated college football teams. I think for four years Over despionation and so that's 12 teams I think I've you know, I'm gonna count myself as a loss on West Virginia last year because while they had will Greer I was wrong about them being overrated. I think they were 16th or 17th but I haven't been wrong about any of those other 11 and Texas I think counts as one of those teams that your model not as into as the rankings their ninth right now I figured I'd throw that out there while I had those rankings up there Let's talk to you about though the Big 10 because it's a it's a conference where there may be some Ambiguity this year Ohio State lost to an hacket Haskins They're still favored to win the Big 10 at Fandals sports book obviously still hyper on the quarterback position there But they're plus 110 Michigan plus 250, but they're also plus 280 to make the playoffs So even though Michigan is not favored to win the Big 10 There is still a lot of optimism around that team entering this year Where does your model view? Michigan and Ohio State relative to each other right now Yeah, so so Ohio State is seventh and Michigan is eighth Ohio State is better by about a point in my numbers But that also means Michigan would be favored at the Big House Right now if with what we know from these programs You know looking at what those odds are on the sports book. I think the odds should be a lot closer Than what you have right now You know, let's talk about Ohio State first I'm still a little befuddled why they chose Ryan Day to be the coach when you're Ohio State He's kind of an unproven guy. He's had a lot of coordinator positions Never been a head coach anywhere and when you're Ohio State Do you have to take a risk like that? I mean USC took a risk like that with Clay Heldt in a couple years ago And I'm shocked that that didn't end last year You know, there's a lot of belief that Ryan Day is a better coach than that He's obviously working with a lot coming off the Urban Meyer You know taking the baton from Urban Meyer He did land Justin Fields as a quarterback super highly touted guy entering a second year was at Georgia last year and So the one thing you know and Ohio State also has a lot of questions, right? They lost four out of five guys on the offensive line and And their defense was for Ohio State standards terrible last year and You know programs like Minnesota were running all over them. So so there's a lot of questions there I think they're you know, wait, I think they have way more questions than they've had over the last couple years I'm Michigan. I live here in Ann Arbor. So Follow this team pretty closely. Just want to get that out there. So They're definitely definitely have my perspective on this But I mean the one thing I want, you know, the defense has been good over the last couple years The offense is a is a question mark and not necessarily a question mark But they did hire a new coordinator and Josh Gattis. It's supposed to be more up-tempo Harboss kind of taking a backseat with the offense, but I didn't want to tell one story with Michigan, you know, I actually was walking into the spring game this year talking to some friends And I said that one of my concerns about this team was the offensive line So two years ago, the offensive line was dreadful a big part of Michigan having a you know, the war season under Harbaugh They came back last year and and they were definitely better But when I was looking at some of the numbers that I have in terms of past protection So when I look at past rate adjust for strength to schedule, you know, they weren't great They were like middle of the big 10 Nothing elite and so that's why I kind of said that you know, it was a concern of mine but they do bring four or five starters back and then I found out that like all four of those starters made it an all big 10 team So that's a piece of information, you know I tell this story just because like, you know, none of us are perfect and I'm certainly not and like I'm a Piece of information like that is really valuable because you know The people who vote for that thing watch the offensive line like more than I do and even though I saw every single game a piece of information that makes me a lot more Confident that Michigan's offensive line is going to be good this year Then then I originally thought and you know, we're all in this information business We're just trying to make the best decisions on what information we can get and that was an important one for me. So That being said, I think it's going to be very tight between Ohio State and Michigan I believe what my numbers are saying there and we'll see how their season progresses So very tight between those two teams, especially given the ambiguity around Ohio State But the betting odds not as tight, which I think presents shows you that Ohio State probably not a team that we want to bank on given how Enthusied the the sportsbook still are about them coming into this year given the ambiguity around that team Sock with the Pac-12 here and that seems pretty wide open Utah and Washington co-favorites at plus 250 But there are five teams in total in this conference that are eight to one or shorter So do you have a favorite to emerge from the Pac-12 for this year at and you know from a betting perspective? Yeah, I mean, there's a couple comments on the odds here. I'm a little surprised that Oregon isn't one of the top odds I think they're gonna be the highest Pac-12 team in the human polls They have Justin Herbert coming back who might be the number one pick in the NFL draft My model doesn't necessarily agree with that given their performance over the last four years but that that I thought was super interesting and then you know what I'll do respect to Utah and Washington, you don't really want to forget about Washington State Mike Leach is kind of hitting his stride there at that program. They were they were the North Champs last year and So Yeah, so I don't think we should forget about Washington State at eight to one there. They're gonna bring another quarterback in Grad transfer to run the show there A lot of skill players are back. They have some issues With with losses on the defensive side of the ball, but then again, I'm not really sure that any program in the Pac-12 has a really good defense so Washington's Washington State at eight to one is a very interesting Odds out there and I think that what's fun about them is that they run their offense optimally Like I think that like just watching them play is someone who likes analytics They're very aesthetically pleasing and they make me quite happy I think that that does matter from a betting perspective to have some way a team that runs things in an optimal manner Yeah, no, absolutely. And I mean, it's certainly Yeah, no for sure It certainly affects who I like to bet on and what I like to reform So Washington State eight to one right now standing on the Pac-12. Let's move here to the big 12 Oklahoma minus 125 to win the big 12 even though Kyler Murray is not there obviously, you know, Jalen Hurst is is no slouch But definitely change a quarterback You've already mentioned that you don't like Texas and their second in odds at plus 250 So given the lack of enthusiasm around Texas that your model has and the fact that they are second behind Oklahoma Are you betting Oklahoma minus 125 staying away from this conference? You know, what's your read on the big 12 right now? Yeah, you know, I mean, I think I'm staying away from those top two teams There's a lot of issues with Oklahoma. I I talked Monday about how much I like Jalen Hurst's The past offense at Alabama was really good the last year that he was a full-time starter there I think that was 2017. I think he's talented as both a runner and a thrower. I think he's very underrated as a thrower but Oklahoma's defense was terrible last year Oklahoma lost a lot on the offensive line again something something that I mentioned one day and You have to ask like how easy did that offensive line make life for Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray the last two years? I think it made it very easy So we'll see how they adjust to that. What are they gonna do on the defensive side of the ball? I mean there they were they were not good on that side of the ball. They bring in Alex Grinch Who was at Ohio State? did not have a fantastic year at Ohio State, but in I think it was 2017 He was at Washington State and they had the 16th ranked defense by my adjusted yards per play and That's a minor biblical miracle at Washington State So we'll see if you can replicate that At Oklahoma, but a lot of concerns there. I've already I think I've already gone on my diet tribe about Texas they I Think, you know, it's Texas is a big brand name program. Yeah, there is probably some reasonable Hype Surrounding the quarterback Sam Elger. I'm not an Elger fan. I think he's got limited upside In that he really couldn't beat out Champuchel for the job two years ago. He was good last year, but Didn't really shock the world and they just got gutted on defense Just a ton of production gone on that side of the ball So again a team I'm not high on so let's talk here about Jalen Hurts actually because I think it's interesting that you bring Him up because you go back to the last year He was a starter was 2017 and you know from like a film perspective Maybe he wasn't that great as a quarterback But he did do well with good assets around him He had a 9.3 adjusted yards per attempt, which is a very much a good number 17 touchdowns one pick Obviously wasn't asked to do a ton, but he's going to have You know a lot of productive players around him again And I think that's seeing him do well In a situation where he has talent around him makes me feel better about him in a situation where he'll have talent again CD lamb is among the most talented receivers in the league They did lose Marquis Brown, but CD lamb is still there Grant Calcotera Is a bigger dude who could definitely help out as well. So yes Hurts's numbers were probably inflated by talent around him specifically Calvin Ridley, but He's gonna have talent around him this year too. And I think that people maybe are Holding that too much against him, even though his actual quote-unquote situation should still be positive for next year as well I think that's that's one thing worth knowing at Jalen Hurts. Yeah, absolutely. I agree.  I think it is a valid concern Because those are very talented players But you know with Jalen Hurts He can be a good quarterback and the other teams that you think could provide some value this year based on What your rankings say right now at the power rank Yeah, I mean, I know the teams that I want to highlight right now I just just want to bring out the point that this is a regression model So it's going to be way better at picking off overrated teams and things like the human polls Um, and it's going to be good at picking up teams that might not be as terrible as you think Um, so that really is the the key for for looking at Those set of numbers and then also jim. I do want to mention like I'll be having another set of college football numbers Okay, um in the nfl I I take wind totals and I back out a rating for all 32 nfl teams Over the course of the next couple of weeks. I'll be doing that for college football as well provides an alternative perspective It'll be a set of rankings that texas fans won't throw out immediately It'll be a set of rankings that Nebraska fans are much uh more It'll be much more to their liking as well. So, um, and you know, what I do at the power rank is I consider both of them in predicting Especially point spreads for a week one and more information is not a bad thing And I know that you do for your college bat for your college basketball rankings You do factor in What voters say because voters tend to have a good grasp of talent So I think that that's interesting to note. Looking forward to hearing that net. Thanks for giving us a little dive into What the power rank says I appreciate the knowledge Yeah, my pleasure always fun to talk college football or anything with you jim Really? Covering the future Let's finish things up here with covering the future We take a look at some future bets that we like based on what our numbers are saying And we're gonna stick with college football here because after all it is college football week on covering the spread And one of the teams we intentionally did not discuss During that covering the present section was Iowa State And this is a team that Edward E. Gross pointed out as a team that he likes for this year Did lose David Montgomery and Hakeem Butler, but they've got a lot of talent returning What do your numbers say about Iowa State for 2019? Yeah Iowa State's a team that my numbers really like. Uh, when you look at my team rankings, they're 14th Um, they are a step ahead of anyone else in the big 12 I mean, there's they're behind Oklahoma, but they're a step ahead of anyone else And I think I saw eight to one today at the Fandals sports book. I had it written down They're eight to one now. Yep Um Yeah, that that those are some pretty good odds for for what the numbers think are probably the second best team um when you look at uh, last year when you look at uh, uh adjusted yards per play and you look at teams um Ranked them as teams in the big 12, you know, they were ahead of a team like texas even last year Even though the record didn't indicate that And then when you consider what those yards per play numbers included Uh, not all of those offensive numbers were with Brock Purdy So when he came in the last part of the year, uh, the numbers got even better for them So I think there's a lot of value in Iowa State. Um in in the conference futures right there I'll have some more precise numbers, uh in the the next coming weeks But right now looking at it like eight to one you have to like what Matt Campbell is doing Both sides of the ball there and a lot of I think the future is bright for that program And Matt Campbell got NFL buzz at the end of last year and decided to come back Which I think is always a positive for a team looking forward for them And the thing that I like about Iowa State is you mentioned Brock Purdy I think that's the number one thing for me as someone who I think that like if I were to Grade myself in terms of evaluation I feel most comfortable in evaluating quarterback play and having a quarterback who was so young last year Coming back and being the full-time starter again. I feel very good about Iowa State there But also defensively like they were really good And being a strong defensive team in that conference when you have a quality quarterback I think gives your team a lot of positive upside. They ranked 28th in defensive s and p plus over at football outsiders. They were 25th against the pass and That's a very valuable asset to have when you're going up against the offenses that are in the big 12 And a lot of other teams in the big 12 Lost quality players. We saw West Virginia. They lost will Greer We saw Oklahoma lose Kyler Murray and marquise brown and That leaves open the door for a team like Iowa State to make a big jump So, you know when when edward mentioned it on monday that he was into Iowa State My I immediately perked up because they're a team that I liked a lot last year A lot of what they did and they've shown the pass. They're not afraid of oklahoma They will go toe-to-toe with that team and I think that that makes me intrigued by Iowa State too at eight to one I think that you're totally you're totally on the right page there Yeah Thanks. Appreciate that There's a lot of talent coming back on that defensive side of the ball too. So with that and you got the quarterback position Taking care of that. That's definitely something to look into and I'll be interested to see how those odds change As we get towards late august I would not be surprised that they change once we see what Brock Purdy can do without hikim butler I think that they could move quickly. So I think if you want to get in on Iowa State now It's probably an advantageous time to do so my covering the future for this week We're talking a little NASCAR because we're you know, I want to try to talk about road courses Because road courses in my eyes are the best places to bet NASCAR So I'm not going to talk NASCAR all that much But I think that if you're going to bet NASCAR do it at a road course because odds are going to be Softer than they should be on guys and the reason that they tend to be softer than they should be at road courses Specifically is that odds makers do value The I think that they overvalue I'd say what drivers have done at road courses in the past and I think that that's advantageous for this week for two drivers specifically and Kyle Larson and Eric Jones and Odds are not out as of right now because we're recording this a bit earlier in the week But I think that they're two guys to monitor. I'll give my thoughts on where their odds should be If it comes out that their odds are longer than that you should bet those guys because again They tend to overvalue performance on road courses and neither Larson nor Jones will pop there because if you look at Numbers on road courses since start of 2017 Those two guys have combined to just have one top five at road courses in that time And that is a time that Jones has been in the cup series but both have very good current form and current form matters Even at road courses because last year chase Elliott had never finished better than fourth at a road course entering Watkins Glen But he had led a bunch of laps the previous two weeks had a fourth place average running position in both New Hampshire and Pocono and then he won out in one Watkins Glen I think that Larson and Jones the two guys who fit that mold for this week Larson Based on my model should be the fifth overall driver entering this weekend My model does combine both track history and current form. He has top fives and the Three top fives in the past five races. He had a tenth place average running position in Watkins Glen last year He finished tenth at Sonoma this year and now He's 37 points ahead of the cut line for the playoffs, which means he doesn't have to worry as much about stage points He's not worrying as much about trying to make the playoffs He can kind of gun for that win better than he could over the past couple of races Larson tends to qualify well at road courses He has qualified sixth or better in four star races at Watkins Glen He's won the poll three straight years in Sonoma and he's likely to qualify well Which can often lead to good finishes because that that clean air is a big positive to hat. So I'm guessing that Larson's odds at close will be better than they are at open So I try to get on Larson before qualifying on I believe it's on saturday Eric Jones ranks seventh in my model straight up, but I think that that my model We were talking about understanding the limitations of your model I think my model will underrate Eric Jones Because he's a bit volatile and volatility is not bad If you can hit the high end of that volatility and Jones has done so he has Four top tens and six career races at road courses He was tenth and fifth and his two races at Watkins Glen and that's paired with elite current form He has finished in the top three in three straight races He has had a seventh place average running position in both of the past two and The Jones team was a team previously that should have been prioritizing stage points But they weren't and I think that says to me that now that they're in a better position for the playoffs They're not going to care about that. They're going to gun for that win and makes me like Jones even more I think that right now if you look at where they are in my model Larson should be around 12 to 1 to win Jones should be around 15 to 1 and I don't think they'll be anywhere near that short If you look at them last week Larson opened at 20 to 1 Jones opened at 25 and I've got them at much shorter than those odds right now And now is it a track that was not a road course? Where again, I think that they're going to be underrated because they have not popped at road courses in the past So I think if they wind up being super short, obviously disregard this but based on betting Or based on odds trends and based on the way that sports books tend to operate when it comes to road courses I don't think that'll happen. So I would check out Kyle Larson Check out Eric Jones see where their odds are and if they're you know, 20 to 1 or longer I think that's where you start to buy into these guys and buy into elite current four Watkins glenn one of my favorite places to watch a nascar race as well So looking forward to this weekend. Make sure you check out fangirl sports book once those odds go up ed That's all we got for this week. So anything pop it over at the power rank. We need to know before next monday Yeah, absolutely. I had my favorite guest ever on the football analytics show. His name is jim sonnis We talked about nfl offensive lines gave a lot of insight on many different teams and A pretty awesome quarterback prediction that i'm excited to see how that turns out for this year So if you follow your twitter, you can probably figure out who that quarterback is i'll say that But yeah had jim on the podcast it was so much fun and you guys should all go check that out get his backstory And uh, yeah, we'll a little bit about the future of what we expect to do on the show as well And where can people find your podcast? Uh, I mean, I think pretty much everywhere podcasts are available. I mean you can always go to the power rank dot com Um, they're posted there apple podcasts. I know it's available on spotify and i'm pretty sure I mean, I know it's available on stitcher. I listen on spotify. So I can confirm that it is there Uh, thank you for having me on it was a lot of fun. Uh, you can follow ed on twitter at the power rank I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast quick reminder once again to subscribe Rate and review the podcast especially on apple podcast. It's a huge help to us over there And when you do subscribe it'll also get you those podcasts right as they're posted Which is a huge help especially with things that may be more timely as with the nascar odds for this weekend at walk In glenn so heavily recommend that you subscribe rate and review the podcast wherever you listen to your podcasts That's all we got for this week college football week was a lot of fun We're talking plenty more college football as august rolls along though. Thank you to ed for joining me Thanks for cow for producing covering the spread as well. We'll talk to you again next week This has been covering the spread you're on the fan dual podcast network


Your Coca-Cola bottler presents Claudia Claudia based on the original stories by Rose Frank and brought to you transcribed Monday through Friday By your friendly neighbor who bottles Coca-Cola Relax and while you're listening refresh yourself Have a coke and now Claudia But you rang at the same time so I couldn't Course I would have opened the door first if I could have but there's a big heavy crate you bought us in front of it And I can't move it came while I was out But why didn't you say so I wouldn't have wasted so much time talking to you. I Love to but I've got a rescue mama Coming mama that was David. Let me in Claudia I feel like a cigar store Indian standing out here on your door now mama before I open the door I want to explain to you. There's a big crate right in here in front of the door about four feet tall and four feet wide And it's very heavy, and I can't move it and the door won't open wide So you'll just have to squeak through it sideways really Claudia you make coming to visit you so simple and pleasant What's in the crate? I don't know something David went shopping for yesterday Now I'll open the door as far as it'll go, but don't walk into it. All right Claudia That's only six inches.  I don't know that either I was out shopping when I came back I could hardly get in the house myself the elevator man must have let the crate in Anyway, try it mama take off your hat and coat if I take off my nose and hips, too It still won't be enough. Here comes my foot now an arm So you're doing fine now take a deep breath and stand as tall as you can stand That's how I did it and try to imagine your noodle here. I come it's now or never Good you made it. I'm a very squashed noodle You look very rakey schmiss brown with your hair over one eye and the buttons open down the front of your dress I'm exhausted That crate better be worth the trouble David went shopping for it yesterday And he said it was his contribution to the running of the household and I promised I wouldn't open it till he came home He won't be able to come home. It's he's thicker than I am. I will just sit here and relax mama dinner's all right You ought to see my kitchen. It's as neat as a pin.  It's all a matter of being organized Good evening, Claudia mother David. What's the matter? Aren't you glad to see me? David? It's me You look as if I just Materialized out of thin air. I think you have just materialized. I think you're a ghost as a matter of fact I don't think he would exist at all.  Don't get too conceited about it David. Tell us what's in the crate Well, what do you think? Do we have to guess yep? I give up. I give up too. Thank heavens now David tell us I won't tell you I'll open the crate and let you see it yourself.   This is not fair.  I'm the only brainy fish in this puddle Conceded fish. David I can start to see whether it's all white and he's gonna crawl me about it Whatever it is And for what it was it's a very cheap This little object is going to completely revolutionize this whole household. It's a full-time maid.  I'll help you undress it David Are you sure it's not a washing machine positive? But it's a relative here we go Stop the washing machine David. No look again. What do you think of that? I almost get a dishwasher. I never dream David what are we gonna do with a dishwasher wash the dishes, but that's my job What's the matter with the way I wash them nothing, but this is modern now look darling This is an age of mechanical wonders. We live in we may as well make the most of it How come you didn't get a washing machine all the ads say that the happy bride is the one who owns one close You wash once a week dishes three times a day. He really isn't so unbrained I'm not so sure I could trust our dishes to this machine. How does it know what to do? It knows that's what it's for I see what she means David after all is only a machine only a machine Well, I like that While have you know this machine not only washes dishes, but soaps rinses and drives them as well I don't believe it. You don't eh? All right. We'll connect it up and show you how it works I've always managed to do them pretty well by myself What happens David is in the middle of everything it changes its mind it hasn't got a mind Then how can it do the dishes in the first place doing the dishes doesn't take a mind Well, I knew a woman once who had an automatic phonograph that never broke any records It just chewed them up little pieces and spat them out. What did this cost none of your business? Listen to how he talks mama David you can do dishes by hand for practically nothing women Honestly just because their grandmothers did something a certain way they go right on never questioning Never thinking it could be improved on it takes a man to realize the advantages that science has developed listen to it Mama, I'm perfectly willing to be convinced. I just don't think you can convince me. All right. We'll see come on girls Now let's push this thing into the kitchen and attach it up. There we go. I had the new plumbing put in while you were out Oh, that's it those little pipes. I thought they just grew there like toadstool But is it gonna work? Well soon see but I want you to keep one thing in mind. I think we can manage that I have installed this machine very Rapidly of course according to the directions exactly according to nevertheless. It was a quick job So I hope you notice Claudia. He's already making excuses. I noticed but I always say that if something is good It'll work no matter what you do now, Claudia Read the directions again and tell me what the next step is read the directions You sound like a schoolteacher David mama Why is it that when a man gets mechanically gets stuffy too? Claudia read the directions the direction say that the next thing Is to wash the dishes? Now let me see All right now look carefully Claudia this metal basket see yeah, yeah This is where you put the dishes and hear the grasses right and hear the silver right now before you start You put in the soap right through here Then you close the top turn on the water and that's all there is to it You mean now we can take a walk and when we come home the dishes will be all washed and hung up to dry Exactly You know, I'm starting you think David wasn't just talked into this dishwasher by some super salesman at the store I'm not the kind of man who gets talked into things Except getting married now.  Yes, I hand them over to me We haven't any we haven't had dinner yet.  How do you do I go to all of this trouble and what do I find? No dirty dishes. I'm sorry David. Well, we'll adapt ourselves to the situation We'll wash the dishes before we eat Get off a waste of energy do it Claudia. Don't argue. That's true mom and the machine won't mind What's a hundred dishes more or less? I'm certainly glad David didn't bring home a washing machine We probably have to undress on the spot David. Can we put the clothes in this too? No the directions only specified dishes The plates go here we go. Yes, but in a dozen plates All right, and the glasses the glasses go right here in the middle. Put them carefully David glasses break easy Not in this machine. They don't it's the last words. You'll make it self-conscious. Now that put the silver in this little basket darling That's right. Yeah, and I'll pour in some soap. It all looks too simple to me Don't you have any faith in the 20th century now that we put down the lid and lock it like So It's all ready to go. Do I turn the water on David? Let me take one last look at what the book says. Let's see when lid is firmly closed Turn on water hot or cold hot Well, hold on to your hats. Here we go. I don't dare look What's happening David here you can peek through the glass top Marvellous thingamajig is going around like a merry-go-round and all the water just like Niagara Falls Always said there's nothing like a modern machinery Now watch the soap is going to be added to the water see almost human it's more than human It's fantastic. No match. No work. No water on the floor mama will buy you one. Thank you David is it supposed to make that noise When you grab it Did it make that noise in the store David that mother that that noise money Just part of the way it works. I I guess this is must be getting dizzy. They look as though they're having a wonderful time Yes It does sound a little noisy to me. Oh, maybe we better switch it off in the middle of everything. Oh, no We can it'll have a nervous breakdown. You know it is possible that something has gone wrong Look, it's not doing a rumba anymore. It's jitterbug. It looks as if it's going to run away I think something might be stuck inside. Maybe maybe I'd better open it to see the direction say it's all right to open it I don't see how it could possibly hurt. Maybe you better just switch it off I don't think you can switch it off until it's going through all three stages I'll just open the top a little and be careful David.  Nothing's going to happen All right, all right now get ready here we go This is David. They're going to jump out. Oh, I can't look we're getting shocked Party a holy glass is down. Yeah, here comes the silver the top stuff I'm turning off the foster don't touch a thing mother don't touch things that direction says to leave them all Man the machines give me the old-fashioned way The darling look it's working beautifully the dishes are not David they were before we started Well, I am more immaculate now and you're getting your floor washed in the bargain darling don't apologize I love this sewing machine. Just close the top. I'm trying to hey mother mother come on in the water spine This broadcast of Claudia was supervised and directed by William Brown Maloney Even when they're noisy and unruly you love to have your children's friends in the house Because you know that the homes children enjoy are warm friendly happy places Well, there's one sure way to attract the young generation and that's to keep plenty of coca-cola in the refrigerator How they aim for the icebox the minute they enter and how they go for those frosty bottles As a matter of fact, you'll attract folks of all ages if you remember to keep your refrigerator well stocked with coke Every day monday through friday claudia comes to you transcribed with the best wishes of your friendly neighbor who bottles coca-cola So listen again tomorrow at the same time And now this is joe king saying or if war and remember Whoever you are whatever you do Wherever you may be When you think of refreshment think of coca-cola More ice cold coca-cola makes any pause the pause that refreshes


What's up guys? I'm Brian Sakawa. You're watching He Spoke Style and today very excited to share this with you a review and try on of Pini Parma. So obviously the biggest question I'm going to answer in this video is the one in the title. If you've seen my suit supply review, you know that there are many things that I love about the brand, but there are also some things that really kind of turn me off. I've been looking for some high quality sort of price equivalent alternatives to suit supply for a while. So I was very excited to learn about Pini Parma and to also give them a try. So table of contents for this video. First I'm going to talk a little bit about the brand. Next I'll show you each of the items that I have. Then I'll try them on individually so you can see how they fit and hear my feedback for each piece. After that I'll put a few outfits together just so you can see the pieces styled and then finally I will render the verdict and give you the answer to the question that I know you want to know. This is going to be a good one. Let's get to it. So Pini Parma. Pini Parma is an Italian brand. In previous videos I've worn a couple of these pieces and a few of you have commented that Pini Parma is a French brand. That is incorrect. They do have a shop in Paris, but the brand is Italian. It was started in September of 2017 by Tomas Pini. Prior to launching Pini Parma, Tomas worked at Bogi Milano for nine years. Bogi is kind of trendy in a similar vein to Suit Supply in some ways and Tomas wanted to create something a little more niche and a little more sartorial. So Pini Parma initially launched as an e-com site and after that they did a three month pop-up in Paris that went so well that they eventually opened up a permanent location there. Pini Parma strives to be sartorial ready to wear so you're getting a lot of details in a ready to wear garment that you would usually only find in bespoke clothing. Things like side adjusters or wider waistbands with button closures or pleats or lapel widths and shapes. So everything is made in Italy and the brand really kind of combines two of the more famous Italian tailored clothing styles. We're talking about the Neapolitan style or Southern style with a more Northern style. And with that mix you get the pattern of the Northern style with the details of the South. So you get kind of like a more universally wearable and less flamboyant garment. Fabrics play a very big role in what Pini Parma produces and Tomas spends a lot of time researching and sourcing some really great fabrics. In addition to their ready to wear they do do made to measure and made to order as well. If you go on the website you'll see that there are two prices listed for each piece. The first one is the price for European Union customers and the second is for non-EU customers which includes obviously the United States. Pini Parma ships worldwide in 48 hours via DHL Express and in January of 2020 they will actually be offering free shipping on orders over 200 or 220 euros. One thing to note is that you may have to pay duties on what you order. I didn't have to but Tomas said that happens from time to time so that's all I can tell you about that. There's also a live chat on the website from 8 a.m. to midnight Italian time. So that's a little background on the brand. Now let me show you each of the items that I have here. First we have a gray striped flannel suit, shirts, a light blue button-up shirt, a denim button-up shirt, and a Bordeaux colored cotton flannel popover. Trousers I have the taupe flannel trousers from the Serranya collection and also the blue houndstooth flannel trousers also from the Serranya collection which I'll explain a little bit more about when I get into trying them on. Next a beige turtleneck and wool and cashmere, a gray herringbone raglan coat, a pair of blue suede tassel loafers, and a light gray flannel tie. Let's try this stuff on. So starting with the pants and up first we have the houndstooth flannel trousers. Actually before we get started I should let you know that I am 5'9 and weigh 152. So these have a higher rise, a single reverse pleat, metal side adjusters, and a wide extending tab fastening belt with two button closures.  I'm wearing a size 46 and these are classified as a slim fit. For me the sizing is pretty much perfect. Through the leg I have plenty of room to be comfortable. The leg opening on the website says it's seven inches but I measured it and it was around six and three quarters inches. The silhouette is amazing and it's honestly hard for me to believe that this is a ready to wear pair of pants. Here are the tote pair trousers. They are exactly the same style and fit as the previous pair so nothing really to add. I did mention that these are from what Pini Parma calls the Serania collection and the Serania collection basically has all of those details that you would typically find in bespoke and made to measure clothing but in a ready to wear garment. So again we're talking about things like the pleats, the side adjusters, and the waistband. Moving on to the shirts now and starting with this light blue cotton shirt. It has a spread collar and a single button rounded cuff. The material is very nice. It feels very high quality and it's very comfortable. So honestly I think I chose the wrong size here. I'm always a little conservative when ordering online. I don't like my clothes to fit too tight. This is a size 15 and a half neck. The sleeves are just a touch too long and I have some room in the body. Although I could totally wear this shirt as is I think sizing down to a size 15 neck would result in a little bit better fit. Up next is the denim shirt. Same size so same feedback as the last one. With this one though because it has a more casual feel I almost don't mind having a little bit of extra room. What I really want to point out and mention about this shirt is that how nice it feels for a denim shirt. The shirt is extremely soft which makes it very comfortable and I love this color for a denim shirt. Here we have a flannel popover in a Bordeaux color. So I wasn't sure about how I was going to feel about this in terms of style when I got it but I have to say I really really like it. As kind of an elevated and sophisticated casual shirt you really can't beat it. This is the same size as the previous two shirts but in popover form I think it fits just perfectly. I have enough room to feel comfortable but it still has a very nice tailored look to it and the fabric once again is exquisite. It's very soft and very comfortable to wear. Moving on to the turtleneck now beige color with a cable weave pattern. The fabric is a mix of cashmere and wool 30% cashmere 70% wool. I ordered this in a size small and I think the fit is absolutely perfect. Fabric again very soft as you'd expect with some cashmere in it and it's not super thin but it's also not super thick either which is nice because it allows you to wear it untucked but it also gives you the ability to tuck it in your trousers if you like. Here is the suit. This is a striped gray flannel suit. The jacket is two button flat pockets three and three-quarters inch notch lapel double vent half canvas natural shoulders. The jacket is unlined. We have two inside breast pockets one on either side and then a pen pocket on the inside on the left. The trousers are again from the Serania collection so we have the single pleat the side adjusters and the two button waistband. The jacket is a size 48 and the fit on me is phenomenal. The shoulders are perfect. I like the line of the side of the body of the jacket. The back is very clean. You know it's so refreshing that the jacket looks so well tailored but it's not tight. Sleeve length is good. Length of the jacket is great. It feels like the suit was made for me and again I am absolutely blown away that this is a ready to wear garment. Next up is the gray herringbone raglan coat. Now a raglan sleeve is a sleeve that extends in one piece all the way down from the collar. It has a wide notch lapel, bellows in the back which is a great sartorial touch and a waistband, diagonal front welt pockets with button closures, sleeve tabs and buttons up the front with a hidden placket. Very cool coat very versatile and lots of styling possibilities especially with the belt. Here we have a simple light gray flannel tie. It actually has a bit more of a cashmere feel to it. It's an 8 centimeter tie, unlined, handmade and stain and water resistant. Finally a pair of dark blue suede tassel loafers, leather lining, leather sole, blight construction. They look and feel like a very well made pair of shoes though I am unable to give any kind of feedback on them because the size that I ordered 42 which is my normal size is just slightly too large for my foot. Loafers I'll typically go a half size down but unfortunately this time I didn't. So those are the pieces that I got, how they fit and my feedback on each item. Next let's put a few outfits together. Gotta start with the suit. A gray flannel chalk striped suit has been on my wish list for quite some time. It's timeless, it's classic, it's suit that anyone who's serious about tailored clothing should have in their fall winter wardrobe. Now a striped suit like this can be intimidating a little bit but when it comes to anything with a bolder statement pattern the rule of thumb is to keep the rest of the outfit simple. You hear me say this all the time. So I paired it with the light blue shirt along with the light gray flannel tie and a simple white pocket square. I feel like this has a little bit of an Italian flavor so I went with some double monk strap shoes and what I consider to be the perfect watch for this outfit, my Rolex Datejust. One final thing I want to share is something funny that Tomas told me as I was interviewing him for this review and that's related to the lapel width. He said that in Italy the size of the lapel is proportionate to the size of the ego of the wearer. So here with the three and three-quarters inch lapel I think it's the perfect width for the guy who's confident but not so overly confident that it detracts from the clothing. Next a simple casually elegant combo with just the turtleneck, the taupe flannel trousers and the raglan coat. One thing that really strikes me about the entire Pini Parma collection is that it plays in this realm of the classic menswear color palette of blues, grays and browns but somehow all the versions of those colors in the collection have a little bit of a different feel while still being classic. It's unique and it appears very luxurious. Kind of reminds me of Brunello Cuccinelli in many ways except for the price tag. As I said lots of options here in terms of styling the coat because of the belt you can tuck the belt into the pockets for a cleaner look or give a simple knot in the front keeping it open just slightly for a more sartorial appearance. And pulling the browns of the outfit together with my Vacheron Constantin traditionnelle on the wrist and dark brown double monks once again. One final outfit here showcasing the popover, the blue houndstooth trousers and repurposing the jacket from the suit. This is what I would consider sort of a grown up casual or luxe casual kind of look. All basic elements but with the fabrics and all of the particular details of these garments you have something that's a little more elevated than just a typical casual outfit. The popover has really grown on me especially this one in this color. My glasses are by Cubits on the wrist is the Rolex Explorer 2 in my opinion a very underrated watch and then anchored by a pair of white leather sneakers. It's a sporty and elevated look great for when you want to put something casual together with a little extra. So it should be pretty obvious that I think Pini Parma is an absolutely exceptional brand. The quality the fit and the details you get in a ready to wear garment at that price point is absolutely outstanding. Still kind of blows my mind that this is available as ready to wear clothing. And another thing I love about Pini Parma is that the selection is not overwhelming. You have a very curated selection of wardrobe essentials and everything is very high quality and because Pini Parma deals in classic menswear staples you are getting a lot of versatility which equates to a humongous bang for your buck. Now is Pini Parma better than suit supply? In my opinion 100% yes absolutely no question Pini Parma is better than suit supply. Now does Pini Parma have as wide a variety of options and patterns as suit supply? No. Is Pini Parma as ubiquitous as suit supply like can you find them in multiple cities throughout the US? No. Is Pini Parma trendy like suit supply? No. But that's a good thing and in terms of price we're talking pretty much in the same ball park. So if you are looking for high quality, lots of attention to detail, amazing fabrics, sartorial details that you rarely if ever see in ready to wear clothing and if you value timeless classic menswear that never goes out of style then I would seriously encourage you to consider Pini Parma. Well there you have it. I don't know what else to say at this point other than leave your comments down below. Lots to talk about. I told you this was going to be a good one. Links to everything featured in this video are down below in the description. Thumbs up, don't forget to subscribe, and as always, thanks for watching and stay tailored.


Hi, everyone. Basil Chapman here Friday, the last day of the week. And we're looking at on the 17th of September. The does down 90 at 34,662. Look at this the way on the left side chart here. This is the day is the week is the monthly on the left side chart. You can see that that dreaded age pattern that we've talked about for weeks and weeks has come to pass. And we're underneath that pink nine period moving average when it's crossed underneath the 14 to say, Oh, confirmed cell mode. We've been short since the 35,200 ish 100 ish level. And what we are looking at here, we're looking at the on balance volume is suggesting that we are really close to some kind of a balance attempt. That's number one. The stochastic has rallied back over 20 over from the teens into the twenties. It said 22%. That's good. The Magdy, the histogram is just start to improve. So at this particular point, the fact that it's all week from the low that we Monday, Tuesday before the below made on Tuesday at 34,000. I think it was 599. I need to just check that if I updated that on the 14th. The lowest 34,000 510. Oh, that's 34,000 510 35,000 510 35,000 510 was that resistance up at the top in that arch formation. All time highs 35,000 631. Just you got to be careful here. And all I can say is the fact that the dowers had just this is the first single leg a upside so far that we've had two candles with higher lows. So we're going to be watching this very closely. Okay, yeah, there are a couple of things that we need to look at. If at any point by Tuesday of next week, 34,000 480 is taken out of support. That's going to be very negative. I suspect there's going to be at least an attempt to get to the 34,000 980 35,000 and 30 level at some point quite soon. We'll see. It depends on how we try to rally here. And as I say, SMP 44 51 down 22 is also making the arch pattern. The QQQ trading right now down sharply down to 70. And you've got gold. Gold is is down again down to hit a smash yesterday one to one to the downside. I think about return as a trap and take advantage of our great program coming up. Also, check out both before my data used at it. See you soon. I hope you guys have a great


I was thinking from the point of view of what I experienced during the bombings, which is if I was, as I was reading these stories on Twitter, I would have liked to have a tool that would have given me a sense of how likely it is for what I'm reading to be true or false just so that I can sort through all the data and at least make sense of some of the chaos out there. And as I worked on my PhD, I realized that there are three categories of features that are very predictive of veracity of information and rumors on Twitter. One category is basically looking at the people who are spreading the information, the rumors. The other category is looking at the linguistic content of what is actually being said. And then the third category of features, which turned out to be the most predictive, is actually the propagation features. How is it that the rumor is spreading? It turns out that false anti rumors have very distinct propagation characteristics. And these characteristics could be used by our machine learning algorithms to distinguish, to basically separate false and true news. It turned out to be 75% accurate. This is so if you randomly guess the veracity of a rumor, you would get 50% accuracy. So we do 25% better than random chance. Not perfect, but that's still removing a lot of the confusion and chaos in the data for the consumers of news. And this is predictions made before anyone has verified whether the information that's spreading is actually true or false, which is pretty fantastic. And what we found through recent analysis, and as Sinan mentioned, was very comprehensive analysis because we had unprecedented access to the Twitter firehose and the Twitter historical archives. We could go back to the beginning of basically the first tweet made in late 2006, all the way to the end of 2016 when we finished the study and look at all rumor cascades that we could find on Twitter and do this study very comprehensively. What we found was that false news spreads further, faster and broader than true news in every category of information. And this was really pronounced for political rumors actually. So if you look at political rumors as their own category, the difference is even more pronounced. And this was really interesting, something that I didn't personally expect.


a very good morning to you. It is Tuesday the 18th of May, so I hope you're doing well. Don't forget if you're watching this on YouTube to like and subscribe to the channel and you can also check out amplifylive.com where we do have absolutely free access to our Trader Hub portal, so do check that out. But otherwise, let's get straight into it and talk about what's going on this morning and a little bit of recovery from generally our lower clothes that we had on Wall Street last night. The Dow closed down about two tents, similar clothes to the S&P, the Nasdaq's slightly laggard down about 0.6%. Overall though, things generally a little bit more positive in Asia overnight and index futures trade higher this morning going into the European swing. And let's just talk over a couple of charts first before we then start to incorporate some of the news and as well as looking at the day ahead. And gonna start with precious metals in fact and let's have a look at spot gold or gold futures in fact that I'm looking at here. And gold has risen to its highest level in more than three months. Concerns over the pace of the global recovery, creeping back a touch, following a flower up in coronavirus cases in parts of Asia specifically. So you've got kind of COVID concerns at play. Secondly, expectations of further increases in consumer prices could start to bolster demand as an inflation hedge as point number two. And then point number three, you've got a weakening dollar and we continue to see that present last week with non-commercial traders adding to their net short dollar positioning, the dollar index as well, continuing to decline yesterday and this morning it is seen down in the big C once again trading down 110 to 1% around 90 at the 90 how to which is quite key as well to keep an eye on. So yesterday in gold we saw a nice breakout. This was actually Sunday night's trade. Two kind of classic opportunities to get along this market. One coming in the overnight Asia pack session as I said Sunday going into Monday but then we had another move down to it at that same range high kind of zone that had been in play over the course of the last week and a half or so. Then we saw a really nice push up during North American trading hours and then Asia's just kept us up at this level. And this was our target. Remember we were talking about this yesterday. 1875 and we got there or within literally half a dollar of so and on the daily chart, this is unaltered from what we were looking at yesterday which was that significant breakout of the levels around 45 which was as well around the high that was capping price action in early Feb. And if we were to get ahead of steam and break technically through that point then we didn't really anticipate a lot of technical resistance until we got up to 75 and here we are. So nicely played out there in the gold market. Similarly precious metals just generally following suit. We were kind of stalking silver prices yesterday. They were very close proximity kind of tapping on what was that level at 28 yesterday. And then when gold started to just progressively push on we saw a nice opportunity to get along as well on silver broke through and the previous high that we had on the 10th of May and the obvious target to take some about a half a dollar higher up and around those previous highs that we're seeing on the 23rd of Feb and we sit just above those levels here. Now at the moment as we start to get slightly more up and around the overbought territory and the RSI again on the point of the 28 break it was looking quite comfortable and these indicators that we could have some further headroom and we just needed that sympathy play with gold having made those extensions for those other metals to follow suit. So yeah, nice move in the commodity space otherwise in the equity space fairly quiet overall. I mean, Monday's calendar was pretty quiet. Today's calendar is pretty quiet and it is in terms of US data, a fairly quiet week. But the NASDAQ 100 still keeping an eye on this rectangle here which was going back to the highs we had back on the second of May that double bottom on the fourth and sixth and then although a little bit rough and choppy around the end of last week it has held and we're right back up there testing at the moment after initial declines that we're seeing in the futures market really this time yesterday. That'd be quite key. Again, any break above that things could get more progressively bullish on a bit of a further reversal from the sell-off that we had last week unlike some of the other indices the NASDAQ still got a little bit of way to go before we start taking back some of the selling pressure that we're seeing at the start of last week on Monday's session in particular. As far as the S&P is concerned just have a quick look here. So S&P at the moment not a great deal of interest here for me right now. At the bottom end of this recent range fleshed out yesterday evening at around 4138. I think that's a good area now of support. You've got the daily S1 on the pivots. You've got yesterday's low and that respective high as well we had on before the breakout on the 14th of last week. So I like that area now for any support on the pullback of prices to just eke out this kind of range that we might train at the moment. On the upside as well you've got the R1 sitting just above the sixteenths high. This was coming into well really the recommencement of electronic trade when we reopened before we saw a bit of a decline on Monday night but that'll be probably the range we'll be looking at at the moment and then looking at more interest if equities continue that recovery on a break pullback and then extension of that recovery from the sell off from the beginning of last week or if we come back down to the lower bound to play off that support area would probably be what I'd be looking at for the time being. On the equity side of things I do want to quickly throw in Tesla's chart into the mix and I have marked this up I'm going to have to move a couple of things just so I can fit it in my screen that I'm sharing with you at the moment so there we go and we're looking at Tesla shares and obviously Tesla have come under some pretty extreme pressure really and it's been pretty persistent I mean if we go from where we were literally year to date highs we're only seen on the 25th of January it really wasn't that long ago but if we go back up to when we were trading with Tesla which was basically 900 to the lows we printed yesterday we're off around nearly 40% in Tesla shares now as you can see after Cathy Wood came out and she was selling some of her holdings in Tesla's at the moment you remember she was kind of freeing up some cash it seemed to get into Coinbase of which she's feeling a bit of pain at the moment but filings would show she continues to be quite an active buyer of dips in Coin but here in Tesla it's just gone from bad to worse almost and the reason why I'm talking about this is because there's another little string to that bow that's come out or been unveiled if you like from a short position that's being built up by a very infamous character in markets but here you've got Elon on SNL you've got China production issues that the car manufacturer has faced just given some of the ongoing tensions as well between on the state level in the US and China even though they've got the U-turn on Bitcoin payments and obviously cryptos had some high volatility particularly downside in Bitcoin over the last couple of days as well stabilized a little bit at the moment 542 obviously is a really big level of support in the downside as you can see marked up here in 2nd December and on the 5th of March any breakdown of that I would say we run down to 500 ASAP if that were to be taken out now the reason why I'm mentioning this is because we had a lot of filings from hedge funds last night and Michael Berry who you probably realized from the big short obviously very famous individual from shorting in the financial crisis subprime and he basically has come out and it has revealed that his fund has reported put options on 800,100 Tesla shares now that position size is worth roughly around 534 million dollars so it's gonna be interesting to see I'm sure Elon is gonna bite he almost always does so I'm expecting a tweet probably from him today to try and defend himself but yeah another kind of meaningful development here that I can kind of annotate on this Tesla chart and I'll be interested to see although timing specifically it's quite difficult to get a real nail down of when Berry was starting to build up this position but it definitely has been accumulating over the period of the first quarter so be interested to see how Tesla shares open when we get underway a bit later on I'll keep you updated in the community about his pre-market movement otherwise the other chart I wanted to quickly mention was WTI crude and despite some of the things that I mentioned that are lifting gold which is a slight apprehension on the COVID situation coming out of Asia overall the Western world touch word thankfully at this point is moving along on Q if you like in terms of the US and also in the UK at least in the latter for now obviously we continue to monitor vigilance the COVID variant situation but with WTI crude we've always remained quite bullish here I amplify about the idea that reopening further airline travel that's only going to pick up an increase whether or not it gets disrupted by this Indian variant now globally or not the point is in the future there will be a return of normalization if you like in terms of the physical demand for crude oil and so just having a look at oil here at the moment I'm going to flip it over to a daily chart and this is what I'm looking at so this is going back to give you a bit of idea on the access on the bottom sorry let me just change over here this is what I'm looking at WTI crude 2018 is here when we had the peak up at around 75 bucks you've then got 2019 here which was when April 2019 we hit a high around 66.76 close proximity to that as well beginning of 2020 before then the pandemic hit we've had a rejection at technically around these levels at the beginning of March and who here we are again and you know if you look on a 90 minute we are just literally tapping on that door looking for a break here so something I'm definitely watching today and this week and if we can get above that and it's been quite bullish in the return here that we've had over the last days price actions that take us back up to this level then again you know if we break higher here yes we've got a bit of an extension on that move on the eighth of the failed break but then there's not a great deal of resistance here technically then if you start looking back on these charts so the obvious target here has got to be you would think the $70 handle psychologically and that puts us back up at the highest levels that we would have traded since basically October of 2018 at that point so it's still looking quite quite bullish there at the at the moment a few other things then from the headlines that I just wanted to cover having just looked at the charts there and going to just talk about the Fed briefly we've got the FMC minutes obviously tomorrow to be quite frank I'm not really expecting a great deal from them and further reiteration from one of the senior Fed officials Carina last night said that during a webinar that we could have expected April payroll report shows we have not made substantial further progress on the central bank's goals for employment and inflation laid out as their thresholds to begin scaling back their bond purchase program so Carina, the Fed continue to just remain firm for the time being on that front we did have overnight just so you're aware the RBA minutes not really too much in a way of a reaction I would say if anything just prevailing dollar weakness helping some of these currency pairs remain fairly buoyant and actually I'll come back to it, Euro's just had a breakout here on the upside but the RBA said it will pay close attention to economic data and conditions in financial markets when deciding whether to roll over its yield target maturity and or to undertake further quantitative easing the RBA is due to make a call at its July 6th meeting or whether it will move that three-year yield target to November 24th bond from the current April 2024 security but that's understood and we're just given the timings and the roll over I don't think would be that surprising but yeah I just mentioned the Euro so bit of a further extension of that dollar weakness which we're talking about yesterday still very prevalent at the moment and yeah Euro's just testing here a fairly interesting level which is as you can see a bit of a breakout from that prior week and that previous Friday's price activity which is around the 121.85 level just looking here on the on a daily yeah we start to come to the 122 hand or it starts to get a little bit more interesting from a resistance point of view whether or not we can continue this upward trend that we see really take hold since the end of March, April being really good for the for the Euro obviously by product of dollar softness but with the vaccination programs where Europe was lagging through that period of the beginning of the year January, February now we start to see things picking up a little bit more pace albeit I saw this morning J&J very slow to fulfill their Q2 deliveries to the Eurozone for their coronavirus drug at the moment but look look quite dollar centric at the moment because Cable's also continuing the upward trend and this is what we're talking about yesterday there's a lot of UK data coming out this week jobs, inflation all these types of metrics, growth, PMIs they all should lend their hand to a more positive backdrop despite UK ministers reportedly discussing contingency arrangements for local lockdowns or delaying the reopening on June 21st I think the government has been quite clear about the data over dates and any delaying of June 21st I don't think it's particularly that big a deal for Sterling as a headwind if it moves by a couple of weeks and also if they adopt a more localised rather national program but with restaurants, hospitality things like that opening in this latest lockdown I don't think it really detracts from that economic rebound so just be not unless obviously the Indian variant situation in cases get materially worse from here on out ITV's Pestin did report that the prospects of a final easing of lockdown restrictions in England going ahead precisely as planned on June 21st are close to nil according to ministers and officials so you can pretty much take it now that it's probably unlikely to happen in that current complete restrictions being dropped for having a look at cable here then again technically quite an important breach now of where we were from the high on the 11th and technically as we've said before we've got the 142 handle sat just above here about 12 pips away from current price but really resistance wise not a great deal until we get the year to date high seen on the 24th of Feb now at 142.45 we have had the jobs data in the UK this morning not really a focal point to be quite honest with you not with furlough still in play the ILO unemployment rate 4.8% versus expected 4.9% but the thing is about those jobs data is the government's strategy of adopting furlough until September is allowing then kind of companies to keep people employed through then allowing the economy to reopen through May, June, July, August by that point the economic activity should have really picked up a lot of pace and that means that perhaps then a lot of these employees might have survived the worst of the pandemic crisis potentiality of being laid off at that point there's enough demand there to warrant them keeping their position that the unemployment spike never actually materializes just given the roll over and length of that government job support scheme all right great look at the calendar then for today and we do have at 10 o'clock the Eurozone Q1 GDP flash estimate and you've got the employment figures as well so just keep an eye on if you're training European products and then this afternoon pretty quiet overall burning permits housing starts coming out the US at 130 and from a speaker's perspective ECB President Lagarde does speak later this afternoon at 3pm but she's speaking at a student award ceremony no text is expected there and given the theme of the conference not expecting any market moving commentary Bank of England Governor Bailey and a number of the BOE officials do speak in front of the Lords Economic Affairs Committee on everything from the future of QE the bank's transparency its mandate and so on perhaps interesting to keep half an year on but I don't think it's really going to be a material mover for sterling in terms of any new commentary on the economic situation or future monetary policy then from a Fed voters point of view you've got Bostick speaking at 330 about resilience of the economy and financial system probably one thing to keep an eye on as well pre-market is not only Tesla as I mentioned but also the kind of brick and mortar retailers you've got Walmart and Home Depot going to report pre-market two of the bigger kind of names in that space and obviously coming on the back of whether or not there's enough firepower left with those last stimulus checks that we saw going through January, March to see how these guys actually performed but amid also those current restrictions in America now so that is it going to let you guys get on so set up for still although calendar-wise fairly quiet still looks like a pretty interesting day could unfold so good luck and I'll see you down to my live chat room thanks very much


What makes for excellence in heart care? It starts with one of the most amazing teams of heart surgeons and cardiologists that I've seen assembled under one roof and the region's leading technology in a new $40 million facility. This is the nationally recognized Heart and Vascular Institute of Eastern Kentucky at Pikeville Medical Center. After enduring the devastating effects of the July flooding, Fleming Neon Middle School is finally getting the much needed renovation to their gymnasium. We've had six to eight feet of water in three of our schools and including this facility. So all in all we lost three gymnasiums, two school cafeterias, three libraries and two football fields plus the classroom buildings of three of our schools. Despite the setback, the school showed resilience and used unaffected parts of the facilities to set up a clinic for the community. Well, we were all devastated by the flood. This whole community was underwater basically and our school was really the only, our basement got flooded but the actual school classrooms did not and because of that we were, I spoke to Mrs. Johnson, she gave us permission, gave me permission to open up the school to a doctor in this community that was flooded out. So we opened the medical clinic on Monday after the flood and people started sending donations first of all to the medical clinic to Dr. Baker and then just one thing led to another. The school received overwhelming support which has since then led to the beginning of renovations on the school gymnasium which includes new bleachers, new flooring and even adding AC units for the first time in the school's history. We actually started the air conditioning project before the flood. We have three gyms in our district that didn't have air conditioning so we started on that project over a year ago actually because we it took, it takes, I think when we started the project they told us it'd be 54 weeks to get the units themselves. I'm looking forward to getting a gym back and hopefully it's going to be ready before graduation for eighth grade graduation here in a couple well I guess next month and so that's going to be exciting for the kids. This will be the first group that'll be on the gym floor. However the bleachers will not be installed and the school will be announcing alternate seating options soon. We're very excited at the possibilities. We'll have a brand new gym floor, new ceilings, the air conditioning. We're excited for this to be the hub of our community to have our students, our staff and our fans, our community in this gym and it be a brand new facility. Reporting from Allentom News, I'm Ethan Miller.


Hey everyone, I'm Nancy. I'm a DevRel engineer at LocalStack. I have also co-founded Women in Cloud-Native Community and I'm a CNC ambassador too. And I will be attending my first KubeCon virtually and I'm really looking forward to see what's happening in CNC plans, Kube, what's new and going to see amazing speakers and amazing talks. So I'm definitely going to attend filling the gaps in Kubernetes-flavoured SLSA with threat modeling by Christine and Priya. And second talk, which I'm really excited for, is practical challenges with port security admission by Christine and VCOBS. Now these are my favorite topic because I'm quite entrusted in CI-CD and security, so I'm really looking forward to it. I hope I can get a chance to interact with Leanne from Loft and Carol, she's a CNC ambassador. I met both of them in the Women in Cloud-Native Community and they rock.