Hi, everybody. So for those of you who were here in the last session, I'm Nicole Allen, director of the National Textbook Abortability Campaign for the Student Public Interest Research Group, which is a national nonprofit advocacy organization that works on a variety of public interest issues, environment, consumer protection, governmental form. We have chapters on about 100 campuses across the country where students engage in these campaigns. And my job is to direct our national program for textbook abortability. And the purpose of this session is to just dive in a little bit deeper into kind of where open textbooks are at right now. So four years ago when I started working on this campaign, open textbooks wasn't really a thing. Open educational resources were definitely developing into really burgeoning movement. But it was really more focused on the more resource type things, the multimedia, the modules, and things like that. And the idea of an open textbook kind of hadn't entered the mainstream yet. And we've just sort of seen how open textbooks over those years have become not only mainstream within our community but really covered by the national media and something that a lot of professors and colleges are aware of and actually enacting policies to support. So just want to take a look at where open textbooks are at right now and kind of what the trajectory is for the future. My half of the presentation is going to be focused on kind of just what faculty think, what students think, what we've been seeing in the media. And then Eric, my co-presenter of the president of Flatworld Knowledge, is going to share some of their sales data with us and just the data they've collected on usage and what students are buying, what faculty are saying. That'll give a really great snapshot of what the state of open textbooks is now. So I think everybody here knows how expensive textbooks are. And I guess I am reusing a few slides. For example, popular capitalist textbook, 224.95. Students are spending over $1,000 per year on textbooks on average according to the college board. So this is just a huge problem, not a surprise that open textbooks have really become a very appealing solution to so many different people. And then if you put that just in context with what students are spending on tuition, the GAO found that students in community colleges are spending pretty much almost as much on textbooks as they are on tuition. So oh, and then also prices have been increasing dramatically and it's only continued to go up.  So obviously the market is right for a solution, open textbooks provide that solution. And just to quickly review where we're at right now, open textbooks have been adopted over 3,000 classes. They're used at some of the nation's top institutions, Harvard, Berkeley. And we're seeing a lot of models developing to support sustainable development of open textbooks. And then just to give you two examples of open textbooks, this is one published by an individual professor. There are a lot of free digital options and you can also get a hard copy down book for $25 or print it out. I want to take off a little bit more to print it out just because it's not as efficient. And then here's an example of one of Flatworld now which is open textbooks and the various options that are offered for that free online version and then optional digital versions and study aids and hard copies. And then we also have a lot of other cost saving measures out there on the market besides open textbooks. We see e-meters, we see e-books, used books, renting. And this is just a kind of a summary of how much students can save by taking advantage of all of these options. So I mean some of them are pretty great, like renting 61%, that's pretty substantial savings. But if you think about it, not every student wants to rent their textbook, not every student wants to buy an e-book and just putting that all in perspective if every student took advantage of, who wanted to take advantage of rentals, e-meters and each textbooks actually did, that's the maximum amount that they could save that we would reduce textbook costs for students. So open textbooks far and away are the top solution and why we really want to prioritize moving forward with open textbooks. So now I'm just gonna run through a few statistics we've gathered over the years on what students and faculty think. So we, in a recent trade show, we surveyed faculty who came by our table and just gauged their awareness of open textbooks and their interest in them. So about two thirds had heard of open textbooks, which is pretty good when you think about it, that this was a concept that just wasn't in existence about four years ago. 33% about a third actually could give a good explanation of what open textbooks were. 13%, so more than one in 10, had considered using an open textbook, which is great. I mean that, like if 10% of all professors everywhere, it doesn't necessarily translate, but that's considerable pressure on the market of 10% or 13% are considering these options. And then actually 3% and 300 had actually used an open textbook. The great thing is that 96% would want to use an open textbook if they could find one. Students, we have a few student surveys over the past couple of years, just to look at where students are at. So about 75% prefer print, 25% prefer digital. That means that what we need is kind of a blended option, something where students who prefer print and prefer digital can use their preferred format and aren't forced to choose one or the other if they're really expensive. About two thirds want to keep books for future use, so renting is not a complete solution. And having access through open textbooks is a great way to fill that. And this is a really startling statistic, about 70% of students report not buying one of their textbooks due to cost. So there's a significant issue with access to materials. And success in classes that open textbooks could correct. And most of those students actually believe that doing so will hurt their grades. Now, just quickly looking at media. Many of you know that open textbooks have started to enter the mainstream media, have been covered by a lot of different major outlets. Just looking here, the number of unique articles mentioning open textbooks over the last three years. So on the right, far left, it's 2008 to 2011, we're up over 200 a year, which is amazing. And then just, we started a little bit late, so I'm just gonna skip ahead a little bit and just run through a quick sequence of how much open textbooks can save students. So we found that on average, switching from a traditional textbook to an open textbook will save students about $100 per student per class. So that means that 100 student class are saving $10,000. Assuming up five classes at a particular school, that's $50,000. And two semesters in a year, that's $100,000. Times, how many professors, how many institutions across the country, so they're just tremendous cost-saving potential. So I'm gonna turn it over to Eric from here to give us more of a snapshot of where flat-willed knowledge is numerous. Great, thanks everyone. So I'm gonna just try to provide a little snapshot of just one commercial open textbook company's numbers. So to take this sort of macro perspective and bring it to a sort of more specific and micro level. And what I'm gonna talk about is sort of authors and faculty adoptions over a three-year period, looking at the curve on those things, look at both formal adoptions in classrooms, where an open book is displacing the use of a proprietary textbook, that's how I define a formal adoption, and also informal use data, purchase data, what are students use, and when they're confronted with free in a series of paid choices, what do they do? And then some success data, maybe the most important thing, is it having a positive impact on students' performance in the classroom or not? So I'm not gonna cover this extensively, I think I've gone over this a few times in the last few days and I think there's some familiarity with it, but basically our commercial open textbook model is really made up of these three things. So we publish textbooks the way the traditional industry has. We go out, we actively recruit a leading scholar or teacher in their field to write an exclusive textbook for flat road knowledge, we apply a lot of, sorry, editorial resources to that textbook. So we have editors, we have people who fact check, we have extensive peer reviewers, peer reviewing the work, and we develop it into a textbook, and then we fully support it with teaching supplements, test banks that fit into LMSs, PowerPoint slides, instructor manuals, and things people are used to using in order to adopt the textbook. That's all basically about equity, it's about getting on the playing field with traditional publishers. Where we differentiate and offer more value in our view is by making them open. So we apply a creative commons open license to those books when they're published, transferring legal control to faculty. So now think of this book as a platform instead of a static textbook. And we provide a platform which we call Leo or make it your own. It's a web hosted platform where faculty can come in and they can pretty much do anything to that textbook. They can click and drag and drop chapters and sections into a new order. They can click on any element within the book like a paragraph, open up a web editor and links to it, swap out an example for a local example students might be more familiar with. Maybe make a book more locally, culturally relevant to their students. Insert documents, so you can go in between paragraphs and sign up and upload a Word document or a PDF document. You can insert video from BlipTV or YouTube and it'll render the player directly in the book. And all of that is sort of point and click. When you're done and you click publish, our publishing engine will automatically make that book with those changes available within minutes in multiple formats. HTML, PDF, EPUB, Mobi, which is the file for the Amazon Kindle, digital Braille, and daisy readable files. And so all of that becomes available to the student and then we build a business model around how to make that available to them. And that's where we get to sort of the third part of the model, which is student choices. So the student enters through a free online version. So everybody in the world can go to the catalog today and read all the textbooks for free online through any web browser. What we charge for is basically saleable format. So if you want to get off the web and download something to your device, to your phone, or to your computer, you can do that. So you can buy those EPUB files for your iPad or your iPhone. You can buy those Kindle files for your, the Mobi files for your Kindle. You can download a PDF that you can then install in device, computer, or print. You can buy black and white or color copies, which we print on demand through a partner to ship directly to students or through college bookstores. And we also provide optional study aids for students. So every chapter of every book has an audio study guide, set of flashcards, and quizzes that students can purchase by the chapter or by the book. That's fundamentally the business model. So let's talk about authors and adoption. So just so you can see, in blue is basically our new author contract signed year by year since we started the business in 07. So we were sort of averaging somewhere in the 25 new books per year that we get under contract. And then, of course, it takes a while to start to develop those. But you can now see the number of titles we're publishing annually is starting to grow. Collectively, we're up into the 60 titles now, aimed to have 125 within 18 months. Most of those are business economics books or the big core general education courses. Faculty adoption. The first book we published was really, we started to do some data testing in classrooms in 2008. We had 352 faculty, unique individual faculty, formally choose to adopt one of the open textbooks that fall. If you fast forward a year, 889. If you fast forward to this semester that we're in right now, 1700, roughly. So a good growth trajectory for us. And we can expect that to continue to grow exponentially because we add more textbooks. So we can continue selling the ones that we have. So we should see some really healthy growth on that number by next fall. Those 1700, if you look at how many institutions they represent, 737 unique colleges in the mix. So actually getting really sort of widespread usage, which what's important about that for us is it's creating a lot of footholds in a lot of different places. And what we see is once we get an adoption somewhere that turns into two adoptions within a semester and then we start to see a diffusion pattern. What kinds of schools do those make up? That's the breakdown of the 737 schools I lost for somehow in the data. But basically 20 international adoptions where they formally adopted lots more international usage but not formal adoption. 37 high schools which are basically using college textbooks in the high school curriculum. 162 year, 216 four year private and 304 year public. I expect this number a year from today to be the biggest one that the 35 first books we published were business and economics. They skewed to a four year business school curriculum. But as we publish more Gen Ed books we see huge growth in the community college space. International adoptions are coming from everywhere from Austria, Belgium to Kosovo, Malaysia, Switzerland to the UK. An interesting number that I haven't quite figured out yet. When we look at the age demographic of adopting faculty the number one demographic was a shocker for us and it's been consistent every time we do this which is people who've taught over 20 years in the classroom. Then the next biggest one is the one I would of of course expected to be the biggest which is people one to five years. And I actually kind of get this, right? This I understand. I'm not weighted to print textbooks and I'm much more computer savvy and open to new things. This I've actually in conversations I think figured out it's I actually am so comfortable with what I do in the classroom that I'm willing to take more risks. I don't really, I'm not worried that if the book blows up on me I'm in big trouble. I've got my notes, I've got everything and so I'm willing to do something that's gonna benefit my students. These are all over the place and I have no idea why. Can't figure that out. When we asked faculty who adopt the top reasons for adopting a textbook, why did you do it? These are the top 10 reasons that we get. Free online is the biggest driver by a significant factor, the quality of the content of the book, the prices of all the alternative formats being affordable, the availability of those format choices. Number five, just simply I believe in this idea of an open textbook and was drawn to this. Six, the availability of supplements, the ability to customize the material, the ability to have more control over new additions. No publisher's gonna come and say you have to change to a new one, we allow faculty to change if and when they want to. Adoration with the LMS and author reputation are the reasons for adopting. Top reasons for not adopting. So when we asked faculty who looked at the books, why didn't you adopt? Basically not surprising, people have very unique ways of teaching and the book didn't fit my way of teaching and either it was too different to use your custom engine to change it or I'm just not interested in spending the time to do that. Number two, not surprising, too busy. That's pretty consistently the top reason faculty don't change from a traditional textbook to another traditional textbook. Didn't like the contents, strong relationship with my current publishing representative. Not teaching this semester. Didn't like the teaching resources. They came with it, fearful of a new company and whether it's gonna be around for the long term. Didn't get a desk copy, that's not a good one from our point of view. Requested a desk copy, never got one. Don't understand how to adopt it. It's different, it's a different process. I don't just fill out a requisition form and give it to my department assistant to bring to the bookstore. Didn't understand how my students were gonna actually get to this material and use it and that made me nervous and then sort of the ubiquitous all other. On top of that formal adoption traffic, we have about over 200,000 students this semester and formal classes using it. But in September and October of this month we also had 157,000 and 145,000 informal learners. So people who came in and entered the reading environment read more than three pages of a textbook but weren't in a formally adopting classroom. So lots of informal access and usage of the open textbooks as well. Purchased data. So what are students doing given that range of choices? 46% of them are reading for free only. They access the web version, good enough for them and that's what they do. That means 54% are purchasing something. The biggest chunk of that are black and white textbooks. We sell almost no color textbooks. So students clearly place more value on a less expensive black and white than the potential pedagogical value of color. PILIs, there are PDF files that they can download and use on their own and these didn't come out right. But this is audio books at 3% and this is eReader files. This is basically the EPUB and the Mobi. When you buy an eBook from us, you download both of those formats so that if you ever switch from a EPUB reading device to a Mobi device or vice versa, you've got both on your bookshelf. We also see lots of those getting installed where we think. We don't know where those are going actually. That's the issue. I don't know if they're being read on a laptop, on an iPhone, through an eReader or through a handheld dedicated eReading device but 6% of students are buying those. Student success data. We actually have one of the authors of a study, basically Bob Livingston, a professor at Cerritos College. And their perspective was if students are dropping out of courses and having hampered success because of the cost of textbooks, if we remove that barrier, what will happen? Logically, they should be more successful. So Bob actually led the adoption of those books in the study and the president of the college published an article a while back where they said that they saw in these three introductory business courses total course completion rates rise between 10 and 15%. Interesting piece of that. I didn't give all the detailed data but a small bit of that was in traditional classrooms. Huge chunk of that came out of the distance learning courses. So students in online programs did significantly better when using open textbooks. And no statistical difference in GPA. Student comments are pretty interesting. Give us the necessary tool. These are students in those three classes. Give us the tools to succeed, we will. Expand open source textbooks to other classes. I like open source books because of cost availability and flexibility. I'd recommend them to my friends. I recommend and encourage other students to sign up for classes that use open source textbooks. These are interesting comments because these are the pressure points that I think are starting to exert themselves in the marketplace as students start to become aware that this option exists, they're starting to ask for it and going to the classes where it's been used. Bob just did a study recently and forwarded us some of the data. So one of the big issues for students when they start in classes, I don't know how to use an open source textbook. It feels new. And so in the most recent survey, how difficult is it to use 86% not difficult at all? Pretty easy to figure out. 80% said they actually thought the quality of the open textbooks were better than the quality of the traditional textbooks they were using in other classes. And as Bob put it in his data, the AHA number is that 96.5% of students said that the department should continue to look for more open source textbooks for more classes and they're beginning to sort of go and flow to those places where they're being used. One other data point, Virginia State, they use open textbooks in now 16 business classes. They started with their eight core required business classes that was last year and eight more this year. They're about to publish a study. So I couldn't give specific numbers, but they're willing to let us say that early indicators that more students are staying in those classes or course completion rates and they're seeing similar, I think, results through what Suriyos was seeing. And they have data showing that for students who actually took advantage, registered, logged in and utilized the resources versus those that didn't, they saw statistically almost a full percentage GPA point difference between those using the materials and those not using the materials. This was the number. So they were trying to figure out, does it matter? If we solve this problem, does it really make any difference? So in three of the courses where they took a snapshot, there's the GPA with the textbook for students who logged in and utilized for students who had never done so. There was the GPA without access to the textbook materials. And then I'll conclude with a, I'm looking forward to some of this data. So we did a partnership with the University System of Ohio through the Chancellor and the Board of Regents and they're using open textbooks across six community colleges in a fairly significant pilot with an IRB approved formal study in place. And so you can see that, it's about cost savings for the system that they're trying to figure out if that's gonna work. But more importantly, I think is teaming up to measure student learning and see if ultimately open textbooks demonstrate improved student learning. And if the snippets of data we're seeing in other places play out here, that's gonna be a pretty significant finding, I think. So with that, we've got five minutes remaining so we can take questions or discussion. Yeah. One of the things I thought I would hear you guys mention a compelling reason for digital textbooks in my mind is the single word search. Is that something that people find really compelling and you can see it in like a list of reasons? Yeah, I actually had a student data that I didn't present on the things that they like about things and price was number one. And but I think if I remember, number three was the ability to search. So number two was, and it's just a pedagogical feature, we pull out all the key terms into the margins when you roll over them, it pulls up a definition. So when students are trying to study, they scan the margins, roll over the key terms and get the definitions. That was their second favorite. The third was the ability to search and to find material quickly. Because by and large, there aren't a lot of students linearly consuming textbooks. They're looking for bits and pieces of information to prepare for something. And so search helps them a lot in that method of utilizing a textbook. So how, I assume that revenue for you guys spikes during quarters or semesters? Is that true and how do you? Yeah, it spikes, it's like six weeks of the year. Although we actually generate a lot from bookstores so we start to see, the sales cycle, if you think about it over a year, is sell intensively during the spring semester. That's when faculty review and mentally adopt and make a decision. And then you start to see small sales in the summer classes if people are testing things, but most of the sales then occur in fall. So you see this kind of bookstore order starting to pour in in July and August and revenue starting to spike. And then you see really mid-August to the third week in September when all the online revenue is generated from students. And then you see a smaller version of all that when the winter semester repeats. So you see December bookstore orders and then you see a spike in January in online revenue. And then the rest of the year, it kind of peters in and out based on quarter schools and for-profit colleges and students at home schooling programs and stuff like that. It's actually the hard thing for investors to get used to, by the way. But it is what it is and there's nothing you can do about it so you just have to educate and they understand. Yeah, back to you. Yeah? One of the, by the way, the issue was how to buy the books. Right. How to adopt the books. And these are not sort of total obstacles or is it correct? Well, yeah, that's one of the, I think one of the tricky issues with open textbooks in general. I mean for us, we tried to make that process fairly turnkey. So you go to a book and whether you're in the book reader looking at it or on a catalog page the professor says adopt and it basically gives them a requisition form just like the bookstore requisition form. They fill out some information, click submit. We instantly send them, give them a page that says great. Here's the URL where you can give to your students. You can paste it into your syllabus or your LMS. Here's the ISBNs you can give to the bookstore. And by the way, we'll send it to them anyway so don't worry about it and we'll turn around and do that. And we also follow up with an email to their account that they just registered for with that same information. It also gets stored in their account so they can go to their account and get it at any time. We also put that class in a class finder. So if they forget everything and just say go to flywallknowledge.com and find it. The students go there and it says students enter here and to your class, they put it in a school and a professor and it pulls up the link and they click and they go right to the professor's book. So we've tried to make it easy and you might be able to respond sort of more broadly. Yeah, I mean the challenges you've identified are like the ones that we're observing elsewhere. Professors are used to turning in their adoption form at the bookstore. All of a sudden there's this online resource that lives online and you order online. How do I do that? Some open textbooks, yours have ISBNs, not all do. How do you handle that? So there are a lot of challenges and education is really just the key to that. Yeah, if the student, they could buy it, they could have a choice to buy it directly or through the bookstore because some bookstores charge 40% markup. Right. So if your cost is $34,000, it's plus 40%. Right, that's right. We've always maintained that we'll sell books through the bookstore and they can markup whatever they're going to but we will always have that book available for sale on our site. So the student, it keeps a governor on bookstores because they're not gonna be willing to have that much of a gap between their price and our price. Well, I mean, it's like that with any book. You can go on amazon.com and buy any, virtually any textbook you can buy in a bookstore or for less. Take one more question and then we gotta end. It's a question from actually the last presentation. Someone asked, I think, what the revenue share model is for your authors. So our authors get 20% of any dollar that we generate around their open content and that's anything, anywhere in the world. So typical industry average is 13% and what we say is, look, we're in this together. You've chosen to publish an open textbook with us. There's free content online. That brings traffic. It's now our job as a company to figure out how to make money from that and share that with you. So today they get paid for, for example, any formats that are purchased but we create the study aids and sell them and we pay them 20% of the study aid proceeds. If we generate, we've had conversations here with people about services that they provide. I'd say tutoring services or highlighting services and if we sold that and the students spent $15 for some tutoring, we would share 20% of that with the author. So the authors feel like we're lying because their sense is good. We're both in this to sort of figure out creative ways to continue to tweak the business model around open content because I'm always gonna get paid. Awesome. And traditional publishers don't share that revenue. No, not so much. Not even close. All right, thank you very much everybody. Thank you.


There being no further introductions. It's now time for members of statements the member from Scarborough Rouge River Thank you, Mr. Speaker as the first and the only member of Ontario provincial parliament with the Korean background I raised today to highlight the disturbing situation in the Korean Peninsula This year marks the 64th year since the end of Korean war and the signing of the arms to create demilitarized zone today the area is far from demilitarization Since October the 9th 2006 North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests each test more powerful than its predecessor The last test was equivalent to a magnitude 6.1 earthquake to put it in perspective North Korea's most recent nuclear test produced an explosion almost 17 times larger than the last blast from the bomb dropped over Hiroshima in 1945 Mr. Speaker We know the tougher sanctions alone cannot bring peace To the Korean Peninsula Korean Peninsula is one of the most densely populated areas in the world with the 76 million people a state Kuro has this plane Karma more rational language what we need from all the parties in ball I urge you all sides to do their utmost to diffuse this situation as quickly as possible Nothing else is acceptable. Thank you, Mr. Speaker Thank you Canadian auto Baron Colonel Sam McLaughlin and his wife Adelaide made Oshawa their home Inspired and built an automotive empire and built a beautiful home Parkwood Today the world can see Parkwood in many movies from Billy Madison to X-Men But in Oshawa, we see it as a special jewel in the heart of our downtown Our community recently celebrated the hundredth anniversary of this beautiful estate fittingly on September 8 R.S. McLaughlin's birthday The centennial celebration of Parkwood was a wonderful evening in the loge of the estate surrounded by beautiful decor and history Parkwood estate and gardens is the former home of Sam and Adelaide McLaughlin and is a mansion with 53 rooms With all the original furnishings China and storied artifacts Adelaide McLaughlin was involved and influential in the community as was her philanthropist husband Sam McLaughlin McLaughlin established the McLaughlin motor car company and later was the founder of General Motors Canada His name can be seen across the community on the cancer center the McLaughlin library the R.S. McLaughlin armory The Robert McLaughlin gallery and elsewhere one of my favorite places Memorial Park was made great because of his vision I want to recognize the Parkwood foundation and the awesome Long-standing Parkwood staff who lovingly maintain and manage the estate and award-winning gardens Parkwood will bury a time capsule to be Open a hundred years from now and while we won't be there speaker I know that the people of 21 17 Oshawa Oshawa will still treasure Parkwood and enjoy it as we have for a hundred years Happy anniversary Parkwood Let the member to know that I'll be here the member from Mississauga streetsville Speaker each September the Mississauga Chinese Business Association hosts the men and women of our peel region police and fire Services at an annual fundraising dinner with the broader community Our police officers and firefighters in Mississauga and Brampton live among us as our neighbors and friends Our homes are side-by-side our kids play together. We shop and worship in the same places For more than 17 years Mississauga has been Canada's safest city to live work study do business and raise a family The secret of Mississauga success is that there is no secret our officers go to community events No, many of the people they serve by name and return phone calls They're part of the fabric of the community that they serve and protect More new people move into Mississauga and Brampton each and every year than many North American police and fire services serve in total In particular our peel region police force serves a region with a greater population and a larger economy Than the province of Manitoba That's why our Mississauga families and neighbors celebrate the contributions dedication and work ethic of the Peel region police forces and Our firefighters in Mississauga and Brampton and our thanks to the Mississauga Chinese business community for its continuing commitment and leadership In sustaining that vital community support. Thank you speaker Thank You mr. Speaker wise today on behalf of the constituents of Niagara West Lambert to speak and vote an adequate planning and inefficient funding of long-term care facilities in the Niagara region the reality is that inadequate planning and Inefficient funding are hurting long-term care across Niagara But the Niagara region has been hit particularly hard because of our large and growing senior population Nearly one in five Niagara residents are 65 years of age or older And they deserve to know that they will be able to receive timely and prompt care if and when they need it Right now the provincial wait list for long-term care facilities stands at 27,000 individuals 4,858 individuals are on waiting lists in the Niagara region on average only 96 beds become available each month Month and that means that even if no more people put themselves on our local wait list It would take more than four years at the current levels to have the lists cleared Looking at the direction we're heading in I may have to put my name on the list soon Just to make sure I get in very sad The problem is compounded by staff to resident ratios that are remarkably low shamelessly low in fact I know the Minister of Health has been made aware of this by concerned municipal representatives who have requested enhanced funding for long-term care facilities and an increase in the number of personal support workers This government has wasted billions of dollars on a long let me have wasted and scandal Why won't it provide compassionate care for seniors who need and deserve it? They've contributed to the betterment of our communities for a lifetime and now we have the duty to look after them Thanks, Mr. Speaker I'd like to talk about an important issue that women all throughout our province are facing over in cancer This year alone 2,800 women we diagnosed with over in cancer 1,700 will actually die from the disease. This is the highest mortality rate of women's cancer I have three daughters four granddaughters and my wife Rita. So this is an important health issue. It's very close to my heart Mr. Speaker the women who are facing such a daunting outcome of having over in cancer are brave and Witness of bravery many women in my writing last week had the privilege of attending the cancer walk of hope in my riding of Niagara Falls last year the walk raised $20,000. I like to thank the volunteers I'd also like to thank over in cancer Canada. They have created a wonderful campaign called God lady balls The campaign is meant to bring attention to the fact that women have balls to and they're called ovaries This campaign has been the most successful in raising awareness and donations at that walk I happen to meet it and speak with a stage 4 cancer survivor her story was inspiring But also telling disease like breast cancer prostate cancer have seen great advances in outcomes and treatment Which is largely due to the amount of investment in research However outcomes are over in cancer has not changed for the last 50 years. This is simply unacceptable Five Canadian women die each day They actually been no changes in treatment that is offered to women since if cancer since 1990 this governments take a look at this cancer and why they have limit success in the outcomes of women that are diagnosed Thank you very much Remember same as the member from Ottawa, Vanya, Mr. President I'm a level mr. Speaker. I wish to raise to talk about a while river Our region and it is at the heart of Algonquin territory Indeed Ottawa is a city that has the meeting place of three rivers the Gatsinore River the Rideau River and the Ottawa River And now the Ottawa River is a designated heritage river that designation visa We wish to express the historic and cultural of this river and we can better protect this river The hard work of the Ottawa River keepers Required the cooperation of the federal government the Ontario and the Quebec government last month I had the privilege of representing the Minister of Natural Resources at the official designation ceremony on the river on a boat on the river Elder Claudette commanda a great friend of mine Opened the ceremony by reminding us of the importance of water for our survival and the importance of the river to the Algonquin La ministre fédérale était l'unique The federal minister was there as well as a minister from Quebec to This ceremony reminded us That the role of the river for the Algonquins and the Algonquins called it The KCPC and the links between Quebec and Ontario I just want to thank the volunteers who organized this great ceremony. Thank you Thank you very much, Mr. Speaker and I have two young professional gentlemen here Michael Wachowski and Justin Rotman who both graduated from Queens and As they explained to me Michael spoke to Justin and said, you know what? I want to do some research and do a little project and Justin was game to basically Focus on financial literacy for young adults because Michael recognized that maybe he hadn't gotten the best education Up to that point and he wanted to really have a true understanding and be able to invest property for property for his future And not in 10 or 20 years look back and say I should have done it this way versus that way Well, what's come out of this project is the surprisingly simple personal finance pocketbook And it's on sale starting very soon in all kinds of bookstores on campuses And I hope it's going to be in regular bookstores as well. I'm looking forward to the big launch and I just want to remind everybody that it's an important discussion to have with your families with your children I think it's one of those subjects that people find hard sometimes to talk about saving for the future and understanding as Michael said The difference between a tax-free savings account and an RRSP so I'm looking forward to lots of continued success from Michael and Justin and thank you for coming down today and Joining us and sitting down and explaining to me about the book And this I want to invite everybody to visit surprisingly simple dot CA and they created a special page just for us MPP so surprisingly simple dot CA MPP for all the MPP's in the room. Thank you, Mr. Remember statements the member from beaches East York Well, thank you speaker. It gives a great pleasure to rise today in celebration and to acknowledge the diamond jubilee of his Highness the Aga Khan that was celebrated this past summer on July 11th The Aga Khan is the spiritual leader of 15 million people around the world including over 120,000 here in Canada Who belong to the Ishmaelie faith and over the past six decades his highness the Aga Khan has helped Trends form the quality of life for millions of people around the world regardless of their religion and here in Canada The diamond jubilee is an opportunity to celebrate his highness and the Ishmaelie communities embrace of Canadian values It allows us to recognize a significant investment of the Aga Khan Foundation in Canada And in the province of Ontario including the Aga Khan Museum and the Aga Khan Park Which is here in Toronto and speaker if you haven't been to the Aga Khan Museum to see the wonderful treasures there I highly urge you to do so the Canadian Ishmaelie community is also celebrating 150 years of confederation of Canada and have launched Ishmaelie civic 150 a pledge of a million hours of voluntary service in Canada Beaches East York is home to a large community of Ishmaelie Canadians who devote countless hours to serving our community And I'm proud to call many of them friends Ishmaelie civic day will be held on September 17th when the Ishmaelie Muslim community in Canada will join hands in providing service to this Great nation to improve the quality life of all Canadians, and I'd like to encourage everyone to participate So please join me in thanking some of the many volunteers who are here today Who through the spiritual leadership of Highness the Aga Khan truly make our province a better place to live Thank You speaker is part of the 2017 sustainable schools report the Toronto and regional conservation authorities recently announced the highest performing school boards across the province in terms of energy efficiency And I'm pleased to say that the most energy efficient school board in material for 2017 is the Durham district school board Roughly 50% of the schools in the board are now Outfitted with real-time energy monitoring speaker Which allows consumption to be monitored so that schools can attempt to find efficiencies Other initiatives include upgrades to lighting mechanical systems and boiler plants, but also training Custodians in the most energy efficient practices, and of course getting students involved in energy conservation There are more than 70 schools certified through the echo schools program under the Durham district school board and this program focuses on energy conservation waste reduction and teaching Ecological literacy speaker I want to congratulate the Durham district school board the schools and of course the education and workers and Students for this significant achievement. Thank you speaker I thank all members for their statements. It's therefore now time for reports by committees


Very good morning Friday 6th of December. I hope you're doing well As you can see to the side of me going to talk a little bit about the OPEC meeting still ongoing Comments have been coming as you would expect thick and fast this morning So I'll update you on everything you need to know on that But overall the price of oil relatively unmoved this morning because much of the detail has already come out as we were kind of Explaining before these types of meetings very rarely need or require an end press conference to know the end definitive outcome And the same things happened again otherwise Pretty quiet open overall fairly typical ahead of the release of US non-farm payrolls if you are watching this and you're not already subscribed to our YouTube channel Please click subscribe and hit the bell icon And then you'll get notified immediately when we go live from 1 p.m. London 8, New York And we're going to be covering non-farm payrolls live as it happens. The other subjects. I'm going to talk to you about On the coattails of the OPEC meeting We've got the Aramco pricing of their IPO a couple of stats that I think will probably blow your mind about just how How sizeable Aramco is then we're going to quick Look at the trade war what's going on few comments out of China this morning There's been some further German data, which again has followed that general trend of being weaker than expected And then of course we'll we'll have a look in a preview for non-farm payrolls. So Just a quick look at the charts across asset class. So again, just to remind you Euro top left Cable in the top in the middle gold futures on the top right and got the DAX NASDAQ S&P in the middle WTI crude at the bottom and the US tenure in the bottom right hand corner. So as you can see fairly quiet a little bit of Divergence slightly US stock index futures slightly positive Having got a little bit of a kick first thing this morning Just testing up it around the high end of the some of the range from yesterday's trade I'll leave that to Sam to go into in more detail But the DAX touch bit of underperformance just breaking really that pivot and overnight Asia-Pacific range Things just adding to a little bit of momentum Given how the DAX tends to trade at this time in the morning It's overall pretty quiet before I get into the news one thing I just wanted to bring into shot and have a just a brief chat about is is these charts so as You may may not be aware Sam, and I put out a weekly strategy report on the Monday of each week and Normally Sam, you know, he did he marks up the levels. I'll give the fundamental view but this is one that we marked up from two weeks ago and This is a good practice that that typically I'm in on a on a Sunday In preparation for the week ahead So that's when I compile that calendar, but not just of economic data of any geopolitical events Any political domestic things happening like the recess of polls and things like that And then I look at the charts on a much bigger time frame To give me an idea in a sense of where do I think this market could go to over the kind of medium term What would be my idea of realistic targets and I was just having a look and granted This was two weeks ago when the any of these levels were marked up but just how well they've been respected when you're looking at some of these bigger broader moves and Kind of where the market then you can say could get to under these two different types of circumstances So here let me just mark it up with an ellipse So I've got the Area here, which is where the current price is but you can see actually when this was Created if you like the price was obviously way down here in the euro down around a lower one tens We've come up to quite a clear and distinct level that we had already marked up from I mean This is going back to the October price action as resistance support here in late October Resistance again mid-month and acting as a pretty decent target for the latest push that we've had Cable as well. I mean we again it was that that range played out Really well. I mean if we look to Where we are at the moment 6th, so if you go back to where we were we were right in the middle of that range That we had identified was quite key for price within the pair the break of that range then subsequently acting as a really strong Point so push above We got to that 131 handle and you can see the break pull back to that level and then another push up to that 13th of May high which would there be the next relevant level to keep an eye on and the markets respected that both yesterday and this morning And then the other one would be crude respecting Continuing that trend line as you can see from October The three touches we've had got a little bit more hairy as we've gone into the beginning of December But again just you know a little bit of faith that the levels are gonna hold with the bias as we'd be discussing in the briefings about this idea that the OPEC meeting we knew was looming the Ramco IPO pricing was looming could the Saudis allow the price of oil to move lower and technically a break Obviously helps exacerbate downside pressure. And so that in combination now with what's looking like a half a million Additional deepening of the existing OPEC agreement prices have rallied and where if they rally to well right back up to that Previous level that we'd be marking up which encapsulates then some of these previous price action as you can see already marked so again Although we operate in the intraday market. I think it's it's always a Prudent thing to just take a bit of a step back at the weekend re-evaluate your kind of fundamental view And and take a look at some of the bigger Outlying technical levels here. So as of this weekend the thing I'll be doing now is okay So if this upside level and WTI which is holding at 58 69, which is near term quite critical for price Restricting some of the further upside that breaks will then where next and obviously you've got this descending trend line And then you've got these other levels that start to come in probably around here Which brings in those highs that we had back on kind of mid to late September And then you've got those highs that we had as well encapsulating as you can see if I mark it up The high points from going all the way back in the beginning of the year really March time Some support that we saw in around May the summer resistance that was pretty strong in July So if we get a push up with that trend line very key area coinciding as well with the psychological 61 handle as good upside levels so Coming off of that. Let's bring it back Straight into the news and I'm gonna try to go through this fairly prompt Given the fact we want to talk a little bit about payroll. So OPEC first near this deal on cutting output target after fraught talks obviously a lot of different countries and a lot of different agendas and objectives Depending on how largely they're influence Toward balancing their books as a government on the fiscal side Obviously countries like Libya Nigeria not uncommon for them to be calling for much more aggressive cuts And so no surprise to hear the kind of comments that we've had also out of Iraq over the last few days But what has happened? Well the preliminary meetings and ministers yesterday involving Saudi and Russia recommended it produces deep and existing Production cuts. So if you look at OPEC first, the production cut stands at 1.2 million bowels per day They want to extend that by deepening of an additional 500,000 to give a lift to a overall sluggish crude market now given the overall Expectation of a further slow down and therefore consequently an oversupply and market going into 2020 That's the reasoning they're given of obviously the Saudis not being explicit saying they want to Manipulate the price to make their IPO more more appealing or successful the Russian energy minister obviously very key Component of this deal being successful said yesterday that a committee of ministers had agreed to a cut production until March of 2020 When the current deal expires by 1.7 million bowels per day. So again bolting on that extra half a million the biggest thing here and The takeaway and the reason why oil prices if you look at the WCI chart hasn't really moved Most people are of the belief that the additional half a million bowels per day cut Isn't really going to be enough to really have any type of influence on the underlying price that we're trading right at this moment and the reason for that is because of the extreme lack of compliance that's happening amongst a variety of different nations and so really 500,000 doesn't even Start to be factored in it just brings everyone back up to levels of which they should have been in the first place So a lot of this meeting has been and this cut I think is more symbolic and the pressure really is coming from the likes of the soundies of course to really target the likes of Iraq and others to be more compliant. I think that's the takeaway message from really these meetings So confirmation later on today if it does get ratified completely officially this 500,000 I wouldn't really be expecting fireworks in the price. I think we had that volatility yesterday So I'd be looking for other cues coming from potentially movement in the dollar post payrolls or updates on the trade war Of course that are going to have a meaningful knock-on effect for crude oil as of this morning later source comments have said the OPEC plus Additional 500k barrels per day output cuts could be split roughly two-thirds OPEC one-third non-OPEC Just so you're aware of the details Here is the agenda for today. So all of these times are Vienna So one hour ahead of London the opening session then happening at 10 a.m The closed session happening from midday so looking out for more comments as we go through the morning The other thing of course is Aramco. They raised 25.6 billion in the world's largest IPO I think it values the company at around 1.7 trillion which although is Huge is a far cry from some of the the banks that were tendering to run the IPO Which had valuations north of two and a half trillion only a short while ago But nonetheless, this has been oversubscribed by 4.6 times pretty strategic play by the Saudis to really Target the monarchs within the areas of the Middle East and keeping it quite domestic based in terms of who's being able to buy These because obviously their appetite is going to be far different from potentially the Western world So there's been a lot of I'd say protection around this particular IPO to ensure its success And I think this OPEC deal also is part of that that strategy couple of numbers for you the company Aramco had 260.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent in 2017 that's larger than the combined reserves of ExxonMobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Total combined So all of those companies which are the largest oil companies on the planet Saudi Aramco has the same amount of reserves as those top five combined The reserves that Aramco has have a reported estimated life of 54 years and they pump the equivalent of 10% of the entire Market supply So just a couple of a couple of facts for you moving on As far as the trade war is concerned Not a great deal of new movement. This is one of the Bloomberg articles from this morning the Chinese Finance Ministry saying they to waive trade war tariffs for some US soy and pork purchases We've had another comment out of Chinese TV this morning Saying China has taken countermeasures against US limit on diplomats. That's pretty much a reiteration what we had earlier this morning So not too much really for me to update you on but something of course We all need to remain vigilant for particularly as we go in toward the weekend Elsewhere we've had some German data this morning German industry gets reminder of fragility as output drops So let me just remind you of the actual number that came out in German industrial output So here it is I flick over came in at minus 1.7 percent Verses an expected plus zero point one. So much worse than expected for German industrial output Mimicking the factory order number that we had yesterday But if you look at really the euro absolutely Unfazed as to as the bund and I would say the move in the DAX is more technical So again people brushing over the weakness in German data Because if again if you look at this chart it comes really is not a big surprise at all 2019 the German economy has been Suffering and so that narrative has continued. It doesn't come as a great shock in that respect Just moving on to Non-farm payrolls and I'm gonna give you a bit of Heads up on some key points that you need to be aware of Starting firstly with us ADP employment change the figure that came out earlier this week Where if you remember if I change my chart to here This is the change in private industry employment and you can see just how the change in manufacturing mining Construction jobs has been particularly weak in the last couple of months Hence the reason why the Fed have cut rates by three times for this year Companies added the fewest workers to payrolls in six months in the latest ADP reading underscoring the trend of moderating hiring amid pullbacks in corporate investment all pointing then to a Growth slowdown in North America going into next year now with that in mind This is something that a lot of people in markets monitor and for those if you're a retail trader You've probably never heard of this, but it's something called the Atlanta Fed GDP now model Now this without getting too complicated. It uses the same So similar methodology is adopted by the BLS Which is the labor official government department that comprises then or compiles the non-farm payrolls Report but lots of other important US economic indicators the thing that makes the Atlanta Fed GDP now model so Follows and the reason behind it is because every time pieces of major US economic data comes out rather than waiting It automatically updates the model and it gives us then a generated expectation for the next quarter's growth Now we at the moment in the US Have experienced I say we The US economy has experienced growth annualized at 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2019 remember that was surprisingly strong at the time. We've stabilized around this 2% reading But remember markets are forward-looking. Okay, that's the current situation But where are we heading because this is Q3? Well the GDP now model has the expectation at 1.5 percent So again, we've had some pretty weak data points. We've had ADP the various different ISM readings manufacturing non manufacturing Showing some of the the weakness is still very much apparent in the US economy And so therefore expectations are the growth is going to materially slow going into Q4's numbers Which will be getting in there in the near future Having a look then at payrolls There are a number of things you do need to be aware of and one is today's non-farm payroll number is expected the headline Changing non-farms at a hundred and eighty-three thousand if that does materialize that's one of the highest readings We've had in the entire year One of the things that's going to help prop up the number of course is that last time There was the impact of General Motors being one of the largest automotive strikes that we've seen so approximately 40,000 Workers should have returned and therefore added to the headline number this time round So if we did get a spectacular upside number, you know, just do do bear that in mind a couple of other things though to be aware of and here is well, here's the chart for example of The expectation against the previous just to give you a bit of context as to where we are at the moment So this is the the change in non-farm payrolls in the purple This lighter color is the estimated value which does put us at some of the better levels that we've had That would be the third best reading that we've had barring April And what would have been August when we were north of 200k now? I think I did read the estimate I don't have them to hand, but of course I'll cover them in the preview I think the lowest end of the range for the headline is 70k that I read the upside was around 240 So there certainly is a bit of divergence about how much Is a tight labor force the GM return of workers going to add to the top level creation of jobs But if I scroll down Goldman Sachs Do point out a couple of other factors. I think if you're more bearish they say that Temporary factors including the late Thanksgiving holiday and snowstorms in the Midwest Could likely weigh on the jobs number. So again some other factors to possibly consider This is the the graphic of course, which is particularly useful and I will share this in the chat room While Sam is on the mic, but this is when we look at all of the pre non-farms employment indicators that have come up and act as our best indication of how this employment report might fare and Just giving you a top-level Assessment challenge job cuts one of the lower kind of awaited factors I'd say but nonetheless was positive corporate layers were actually down in October From just over 50k in September initial jobless claims positive the number of first-time Unemployment claimants has diminished in the last couple of weeks Continuing claims though has been negative receiving people receiving unemployment benefits has actually increased in the last week ISM non-manufacturing PMI Positive despite the disappointing generic reading the subcomponent remember of which ISM reports consist of many the employment one Actually improved to fifty five point five fifty three point seven, but was negative when it comes to the manufacturing sector Consumer confidence in Michigan was positive, but the conference board reading was negative ADP obviously was a dismal 67,000 way below expectations of 140 that is a number that people do assign typically quite a large degree of rate Waiting to and then the Jolt's job openings fell below expectations in September. So on the balance a little bit mixed and So as per usual really with non-farms and as Sam will probably explain I'd be more inclined to be marking up looking at all outcomes scenario building accordingly Not trying to go into it with too much of a preconceived idea about how you think and then Falling into the trap of forcing your view on the market. I think payoffs is much better given how How bad economists? Expectations can be and it can be such a difficult Datasets to really put your finger on better than to just digest it review and take action accordingly dependent on the composition of the numbers Okay, that's it. I will see you guys live later for now. Here's Sam North Hi guys, happy Friday last non-farm payrolls of the decade. Can you believe that? Hope you're always excited as I am we'll start off with with the SMP Actually the pounds as we're just having a bit of a move lower here Just breaking what has been some solid support over the last a few hours or so So just keeping a watch on that pivot just going here I guess if we have a little retracement towards that pivots keep an eye if you were liking the look of a short on Well, what was the previous low a few ticks above that as well They you can see that would offer some sort of resistance before that has broken through But overall the pound is strong and I don't you know, is anything going to stop that right now that can come out today Maybe some Incredible dollar strength perhaps but other than that It would be a bit of a surprise to see it and I might move lower However a bit profit taken to the back end of the week wouldn't be all too surprised And so let's have a look at some of those levels lower down Which might attract some buyers to come back in and having a look here s1 Low of yesterday afternoon high that we had back on the fourth looks like a pretty good level Has to be said although, you know, just having a look here at some of those previous lows And you can see also the move lower this morning coincided with a break of that trend How long is the move lower going to be? Well, I think s1 is a good enough place for some support to be found So also with that retest if you are looking for the shortest make sure You would have that stop above that trend line Also below the the s1 in that area We just talked about coming in on the futures one 31 25 be keeping a watch on other previous lows Here you've got one of about ten ticks below that one 30 109 and then quite a lot of support from previous levels that we had broken through They could obviously act as a decent enough point Of support as well. The the highest from today is the high from overnight and yesterday nice double top there 31 70 so keep a watch on that should we get any further move euro pound yesterday broke its Or confirmed a break I should say below the March 2019 level and was trading at levels not seen since 2017 having a bit of a recovery here. I actually do quite like them. We put that back on the day I do quite like the look of This point as an area to potentially get short especially the pounds gonna recover however this market Incredibly incredibly range bound over the last two and a bit years you can see when we hit the the level upper what was that around August was the 2017 high as well. We came all the way back down Is this now a point actually where the euro is gonna start to strengthen against the pound and we push higher Well, I still think there's a bit more pound strength in it. So overall target for me here Maybe not gonna get there in a straight line, but we'll be looking at those 2016 lows from August December and then April 2017 So fair bit of work to do to before we get there and of course depends on not just the pound But the euro as well bit of a line in the sand. You can see here using that March the 19th level of Support Previous support, I should say euro We know how important this whole area is up where we're trading previous highs galore up here You can see just how we've struggled to get above it, but we are you can see certainly over the last We put it on a 60 minute. We are getting higher lows here We are perhaps getting squeezed for a move to happen as with non farms as with that data later on It could spy kind of a direction and true course will then take it It's it's place. We are in a perhaps a bit of a key range now Where decision has to be made for the year and it'd be interesting certainly looking into the back end of the week what's going to happen and Yeah, those lows down the bottom 110 75 Basically, what's that low the fourth and the third if that is to go and that would be a big move down towards s2 today If we were to close below there, then well, it could get quite ugly But however, if we are to close above well, you're gonna get a bit of respite and then you're okay Really push on and and suddenly you're looking up towards 112 and the futures which would be those highs from the 31st or not as and mentioned just talking about non farm payroll I'm not expecting fireworks before that very rarely is there a good trading opportunity in that morning before Nothing wrong with planning ahead marking up these kind of levels having an early lunch and and coming back ready for The release if that's something that you wanted to to trade or not So I'm not expecting massive move in the euro, but those would be the key levels that I'd be focusing on having to look over At oil pretty much finished flat for the day yesterday But just the significance and and brought up that oil chart of where we're trading now is is massive It's almost like that euro with that resistance up here. You can see we've struggled every time to get above here We just can't close the day above really and this is obviously those levels going back to the 19th September Can we get the week above there would be big and then suddenly you are looking towards 61 62 dollars As the next sort of key level perhaps before I mean 60 you would expect some resistance as well So for oil having a look at where we finish will be will be key key support as well using yesterday's lows We've battered that area of of supports 5813 coming in There as well. I've quite a lot of Support I would expect here on the futures around 5775 And of course resistance even though it was choppy using 5865 as An area definitely to mark up have marked up as it was highs the days going back as long as September as well So definitely could be an interesting close into the week for euro for the pound And for oil as well. And of course the S&P and I just saw a tweet talking about 3129 Area and absolutely they were saying it was key and I completely agree got the high from the 18 You've got some really nice support. We broke through like it was nothing on On the Monday, so what's gonna happen? We get that first real retest of that gonna be key a break of that to the Upside then I don't think much stops it towards 31 43 And if you get to that point, well suddenly it's all-time high season again if they we do find resistance at 31 29 Just put this on to a 15 minute. You've also got the R1 Around there. There's nothing to say. We can't then drift back lower And I would at the same time going into the close of the week start to bring in these trend lines You can just see how good this one was yesterday. You also had the pivot You also had what would have been yesterday's yesterday's low Around that point here. You've got the third test definitely one now that market is looking at Let's have that on because if we close the week below there things could get ugly It's just getting squeezed in so really interesting close of the week for all these markets We've gone through and also gold as well and just having a look, you know Short a time frame just of the last couple of days look how important this area of support is for gold 76.9 previous high there then the low the fourth almost tested it yesterday Tested it again today. Is it a false break or not? We're about to find out a really important point because if that is to go I think 47 14 71 and a half comes in 1465.6 and then of course those big big lows down at 1460 Bad data release we push higher and therefore could be could be pretty important for any gold balls More intraday looking here sort of on the five minute. We had a decent break down This is probably around six. Yeah six o'clock 1480 Around there one two three get the push what's going to happen on that retest of that level one to keep a watch on Is where you can see those highs squeezing in and not too surprising that we've got the break towards what would have been The lower yesterday around 1478.2. Have a quick look over at the DAX which hasn't started its best But relatively quiet as expected on a Friday for the DAX is not usually a massive mover We put it in the context of the week big move to begin December to begin the month and we're kind of Been choppy been choppy around that we did yes They retest the bottom part of that overall bigger range and you can see it was met with some strong selling So still keep a watch on that do we finish the week above or below that will be it'll be key as well We are perhaps now that we put this back onto a 60 minute coming to test This potential trend line There you go So from the low that we had on the fourth to yesterday to today That's in the mix now as well as also a pretty key area failed to close below there yesterday Was the higher the early morning of the fourth and the evening of the third So the DAX pretty important point now to keep a watch on as usual any questions, please Do let us know where we will be live from one o'clock UK time for non-famperia. So I look forward to Speaking to you all then but if not any questions, please do let me know and I hope you'll have a good morning ahead


So here I am in the state of nature, just me out here, there's no other people, there's some deer, but it's just me and the deer out here. And this is basically what Hobbes means by state of nature. Now we shouldn't think state as a state of being or something like that, but more like political state. And the idea of the state of nature is not so much that I'm in a political state with trees, but that this is kind of the political state with nobody. I've reached no agreements with anybody else. I haven't entered into a society or anything like that. Out here, it's just me. Now in the state of nature, since there is no political state, there's only one good thing. And the one good thing is preserving my own life. That's the good, preserving my life. And kind of, consequently, there's only one bad thing. And that's either the threat of death or death itself. These are, that's the bad thing that's out here. So the good is preserving my own life and the bad is the threat to it. Now consequently, since there's only one good thing, I have only one obligation.  Now reasonable here is something more like effective. It would be unreasonable for me to try to preserve my life by eating trees. Rather, I should go after those deer. That's what's reasonable. That's what is my right. My right in the state of nature is I have the right to everything. If it's good for me to preserve, if it's useful for me to preserve my own life, I have a right to it. I have a right to it because I have one obligation to preserve my own life. I'm forbidden from doing only one thing. I am forbidden from endangering my life or ending it. So that's the only thing that I'm forbidden to do is to either endanger my life or to end it. So out here in the state of nature, by myself, I'm not relying upon other people, I'm not having entered into any agreements, anything like that. This is kind of the political state, again, of nature, of what's just going to be involved with human nature. To preserve my life, my obligations to preserve my life, I'm forbidden from ending it or threatening it and I have the right to everything. So in the state of nature, not only is it the case that I have one obligation and I'm forbidden to do only one thing, that means I'm obligated to preserve my own life and I'm forbidden from endangering or ending my own. Well that means I have no obligations to anybody else. I don't have the obligation to save anybody else's life, only my own. I'm not forbidden from taking anybody else's life, just my own. Well this race is an interesting wrinkle because inevitably we're going to run into other people. There are other people in the world. Now here's the thing about people, there are some differences to be sure, but we're roughly equal in terms of our capacities, in terms of strength and intelligence, in terms of personality. Yeah, you take any two people next to each other, then there's going to be a difference such that one may be able to dominate the other. Yeah that's always going to happen, sure. But the equality here means that there's no one person who is stronger than everybody else. One person may be stronger than another, but there's no one person who's stronger than everybody else. Even if this strong person, take this hypothetical strong person who is walking around, they might be able to either fight off or kill off some individual people, but before too long the rest of everybody else will gang up on them and end their reign of terror, so to speak. So in this state of nature we are all roughly equal. There's no one person that can just by force of will alone and by capability can dominate everybody else. That means that there's going to be any kind of cohesion or any kind of organization or social order, it can only be through agreement, through the exercise of free will, not the abolishment of it. So here I am in the state of nature and I'm roughly equal to everybody else and they're after the same thing I am. I have a right to everything, well so do they. They have a right to everything too, well if they have a right to everything and they're after the same thing I am, can I trust that person? Do you see anybody? Have to be careful, you know. I have the right to everything, but so does everybody else. And I haven't made any agreements with anybody else. So if, you know I'm looking for a spring of water right now because I'm really thirsty and if I find a spring of water somebody else is there, it's going to be a free for all. Remember I only have one obligation, that's to preserve my own life. I don't have to preserve anybody else's, they don't have to preserve mine. I'm only forbidden from taking my life, I'm not forbidden from taking anybody else's life.  I don't have any agreements with anybody so I can't trust them. And if, what was that? And if we should come across each other and we both have the right to everything, good things are not going to happen, likely there'll be violence, probably death. That's just what happens in the state of nature. If you don't have any agreements with anybody else, you have a lack of trust, you have no agreements. You can do pretty much anything you want. Well I got away from that whoever that was last time, but next time I may not be so lucky. You know this whole right to everything business is, well it's a little dangerous isn't it? Because with the right to everything, then it sure looks like we're going to wind up killing each other at some point. I'm obligated to protect my own life here. I'm supposed to protect my own life, but this right to everything business looks like it's threatening it. If I just look out for myself and that's what everybody else can do, well not good news. So well let me think here, I'm obligated to protect my own life and this right to everything is threatening it. Well maybe I ought to start laying down some of my rights to everything. Maybe I ought to find that other guy that's out there and cut a deal with him. Maybe we can work together or better yet maybe we agree just not to kill each other. Maybe we agree to settle some of our disputes peacefully through reason and through trade maybe. So yeah this is what Hobbes has in mind. That my right to everything threatens my own existence. So I better lay down some of those rights. I better cut a deal with whoever else is out there and then maybe we cut a deal with the third and maybe we find another group and we cut a deal with them. Or we agree to lay down our rights to everything and we give up some of our rights to say kill each other. We give up our rights to take just anything. We have something like property rights, how we acquire property. We have some agreements as to what makes a fair trade, a fair deal. Well I'm kind of eager to start laying down some of my rights because this getting scared in the woods stuff is not fun. I think maybe I'm going to go find that guy and cut a deal. Yeah, it's time for me to leave the state of nature. It's time for me to enter into a political state, a social state with other people.


Hello everybody, Ian here. Welcome back to another Stephen King spoiler discussion. Today we are talking about Stephen King's The Institute. Spoiler warning, spoiler warning, spoiler warning. If you have not read this book or you care about spoilers, GTFO please and thank you. I don't want to hear anything down there in the comments.  Spiled me? Yes, spoiled you too. So yeah we're going to talk about almost note for note what happens in this book because I loved, loved, loved everything. So the book opens up with Tim Jamison. Tim Jamison is a disgraced cop. He heard some ruckus at the mall and he went to go check it out and he shot his gun. He did a warning shot which cops aren't supposed to do to begin with but then a light fixture fell and knocked some kid out and he was disgraced and he was fired and told to move on. He tries to get onto a plane.  So gets off the plane. This was a brilliant move on Stephen King's part because I'm like okay so we're going to find out that you know somebody on the plane was psychic and that's how we end up in the institute and maybe he becomes a security guard at the institute whatever. And maybe you know it was one of those psychic things that made him get off it whatever. That doesn't happen. What happens is he ends up hitchhiking to a town in Dupre, South Carolina. He gets there. He ends up taking a job as a night knocker. Basically it's you know what what we did before social media and telephones and all that stuff just walked around town or alarm systems that kind of thing just walked around town knocking on doors to make sure businesses were secure to make sure people were all right just checking up on the town so he gets that job. That goes so well. He ends up stopping a well not stopping he ends up stumbling across a robbery and that scene with the shop owner getting shot was an amazing scene for me. I loved it. I was so I had such concern for this person that I hadn't even met in the book yet. That's an amazing feat. After that he gets promoted. He hasn't yet been promoted. He's still a night knocker but you know that he is going to end up taking over the deputy position and the old deputy is going to become the night knocker because he doesn't really want to do the deputy job anymore. And then we don't hear anything from Tim Jamison and that whole crew oh orphan Annie. I hope I don't forget to talk about her at the end let's just talk about her now. Orphan Annie is a homeless lady who believes that they are after her just the they she's a conspiracy theorist she listens to a show that is hosted by George Alman about aliens the government secret organizations all that stuff I loved loved the orphan Annie character I loved her whole character art this is so much fun reading her because she comes across as batshit crazy but she is the only one who's in the no spoilers of course it's spoiler discussion let's keep on spoiling it then we jump from that we completely live leave Tim Jamison storyline behind say goodbye just wait we end up jumping into the shoes of Luke who is a little boy he's a precocious he's a brilliant he's a genius and he also has a little bit of the movie movie like Carrie which is very important here we'll get into all that stuff in my Thursday theorist so please leave all those comments for that video next week but we things go off the rails very quickly he is kidnapped and his mother and father are brutally murdered um in I guess in an attempt to have no one looking for him and the people who kidnap him are institute employees they steal him they run off with him and then we are introduced to all of these kids in the institute you know Kalisha who was fantastic Avery Avster was amazing loved loved that character he's probably my favorite kid character in the book other than Luke Kalisha is great too then you have Nick you have Iris you have so many different people but the the big bully guy I can't remember what his name is I loved the when he showed up but all the time you find out that they they need to have tokens to to you know buy what is it sweets and cigarettes and wine and that's when the book started to feel like Pinocchio for me King even references that it's like Pinocchio in the book when Pinocchio ends up going to what is the fantasy island I can't remember what it's called it's not fantasy island that's the old television show but whatever it was a paradise island or whatever he goes through and he ends up becoming a donkey there's so many parallels between King's story and Pinocchio that I kind of feel that that's what he was going for I mean for him to have mentioned it in there it feels that way also the book when he when Luke finally gets to the institute the book started to feel like what would have happened had Charlie from fire starter if she had been telepathic or telekinetic if she had been that instead of you know Bernie Bernie if they had actually if the shop had actually caught Charlie this is what would have ended up happening to her she would end up being here now there's no pyrokinesis this doesn't tie into any of Stephen King's work it does all over the place but not there's no hard connects as in sequels or continuations so you don't have to worry about that but if you're already here you already know that if you're hearing this video um the we're introduced to uh mrs sigsby um who's a devil there's just a horrible terrible uh human being but she's a terrible horrible human being with a cause and that's what makes her so so terrifying um she has what is the guy that's named stackhouse I can't remember her her kind of I guess he's kind of her equal maybe just below her and he ends up taking over the at the institute after six b goes to chase down Luke and why does she go to chase down Luke because he ends up escaping from the institute I thought everything leading up to that was terrific I was enthralled I had a good time but his escape what his escape blew my mind it was so much fun to read about this kid going through the woods going through this town going through going getting on a boat which is one of the reasons why I like the UK cover more than I like the institute cover I mean the the American cover because the boat makes more sense to me than the train even though he spends a lot of time on the train his room isn't on the train so that the this this this cover uh is not to my liking but the uh and that's a train if you can't see it um that's a train that his room's in there but uh one of the things that the institute institute that I thought was cool was all of their rooms are like their rooms at home almost it's very close it's almost like a twilight zone kind of deal because they're all just a little bit off uh but then once he escapes and he gets on the train everything unfolds as you would think that's something like that would unfold um it is a little convenient that the one person that he meets along the way um that is kind of uh sympathetic to his plight uh he does have his he ends up having to cut his ear off uh to remove the tracker uh that was convenient also not going to lie but it these things didn't bother me it's just things that I noted that they put the tracker somewhere that was easily removed um and I mean I know it's hard to think about cutting your ear lobe off but it's much easier than if they had embedded in his chest you know or in his back knee or whatever um so he ends up escaping and the there's one person he bumps into on the way on the train gives him some food and he's he ends up making it to dupré south carolina where he finally about page 400 and something finally bumps into tim jamison and we're back to square one tim helps him out he's he's very suspicious uh he looks beat up and abused so they believe his story and they they believe that he's you know he's in trouble they just think he's making up this story that he was locked up in the institute but while he was at the institute he met marine marine was a lady with cancer who helped him escape and she gave him a thumb drive where she explains what's going on and then she took video of what was going on the only real horror element in this book is the the back half of back half I think um that was very horrifying to see the kids what they are reduced to uh they're at the end uh before they are just completely used up and just basically turned into batteries um for the institute and we're gonna get to why in a second but uh the the shootout in in town when the uh when the institute folks show up in dupré that was fantastic man I had a lot of fun the book does slow down a little bit when they're trying to get back to the institute but that was fine for me because I like these characters and I really didn't want the book to end but then we finally get back to the institute and all the kids have come together to you know charge up and get all their power in one place and they find out that there's other institutes in all these other places and all these different international you know different these different countries that are not in america and they're several different ones and they they link minds with those kids and the fucking institute they they lift it off the ground and drop it on the other half I thought that was amazing it's such a cool concept and it's so much fun I love how six v dies getting your ass shot up in the car after a uh not avery but after uh luke trickster I thought that was that was fantastic um so much fun uh but the the book ends perfectly there's even a little maybe exposition a little too much explaining there at the end but we had to know right I want to know if it was the shop I and of course I think it's the shop I think it's just called something different I'm pretty sure this is the shop that has been working to gather all this intelligence all this time but we learned that what the institute was doing was preventing the end of civilization by nuclear war by radiation fallout whatever you want to call it by nuclear war any of that stuff I just said nuclear war twice but um any of those things biochemical war any of those things that's what they've been doing they've been using the children to assassinate these uh almost like in a minority report uh kind of storyline where they use these precogs precognitives um who know the future and then they discuss the uh the ambivalence of whether or not the precogs are actually predicting the future or it's just they are predicting maybe one timeline so many questions there at the end don't get me wrong this isn't an open-ended book I feel everything is wrapped up in the story is there a possibility that we could move on and find out more about these precogs yeah there could is he gonna write a sequel I have no idea but uh the the way the book ends I I just I was I was left with this with this huge question why why would we do such a thing to these children to drain them to make them batteries to save ourselves but the answer is of course what we would um we would sacrifice the smaller of us I mean we do it nowadays we would sacrifice the smaller of us to maintain the status quo um and I said this in my uh non spoiler review but it it's it's enlightening at least for me an eye opening I said it's things that I've thought about before but it really really dug deep it dug its claws into me reading this book it's like how far are we willing to go to make sure that we are all right as long as it's not happening to us how far are we willing to go and of course most of us hopefully would say you know we would choose not to torture children to make sure that there's no nuclear war but would we really giving given that you know torture children or die in nuclear war how many of us truly would pick nuclear war and the destruction of mankind that is a fascinating question and there's no good answer to either side of it I dig that shit so anyways that's that's what I loved about this um I I talked more about stuff that I love that's non-spoilery so if you haven't watched my just my regular review go check that one out it was uploaded just before this one uh I had a lot of fun with this book man and I the more I think about it the more I like it it's the exact opposite of elevation and sleeping beauty swear the more I thought about it the more I hated it um and I'm sure there's probably plot holes or something or whatever I just don't care man I really don't it was one of those things just like with the Hodges trilogy the first book I just didn't care if there were plot holes it was a fun read I loved reading the book I love the characters well Hodges I could have done with that I know that's weird since he's the main character in verse two but Holly Gibney was amazing are you excited for if it bleeds are you because I know I am so anyways this is a spoiler discussion so talk about what you liked and what you didn't like down there in the comments below if I don't respond to your didn't likes it's probably because I don't want to think about the didn't likes so I apologize but if you want to talk about what you like I will happily talk about that not saying I won't respond to your didn't likes but I might not just don't take it personally it's just because I love this book so damn much I hope that makes sense but until next time I have been a you've been you this been another Stephen King spoiler discussion review I'll talk to you guys later bye bye