now suddenly the anchor of your infield the guy who's one of your best two-way players Deedee Gregorius you're not sure if you're going to have him for the rest of the season you're not sure if you're going to have him for the wild card game this is a body blow for the Yankees and they're hoping that he responds to that quarter zone shot and he will be able to play but as Boone said right now it's an uncertainty that's best case scenario worst case scenario if he can't play take us through the thought process of who you'd put a shortstop I think again as Boone said it comes down to match-ups but I also think it's pretty simple it's offense versus defense if you're really looking for offense it's going to be Neil Walker going to second base and you slide Torres from second to short if defense is what you feel should be a premium you leave Torres alone at second and you play Echeveria who general manager Brian Cashman is called a defensive wizard at shortstop also they could go this route start Walker at second base start Torres at shortstop and if you get the lead after seven innings you're moving Torres back to second base and you're bringing that defensive wizard Echeveria into shortstop not an ideal situation for the Yankees they lost DD to a heel injury not too long ago and they were so thrilled to get him back and they now not do not know when they will get him back from this injury


Welcome back to the ECB Forum on Central Banking. Please continue to share your comments on social media under the hashtag ECB Forum. As we continue our session on macroeconomic stabilization frameworks in the new economic environment, it is my pleasure to introduce our next moderator and chair, Yves Merge, member of the Executive Board of the ECB. The floor is yours. Thank you, Thierry, for this new session. This session is focusing on fiscal rules, fiscal frameworks in the new economic environment. And within this session, we will deal with topics like fiscal frameworks, but also fiscal policies. It is meant, for example, to deal with the balance between fiscal rules versus discretionary fiscal policies. We will also look at options for improving the euro area fiscal governance after it has been put under the escape clause into the freezer. We will also, obviously, in such discussions, we will not escape the academic discussions on the scope and direction of fiscal multipliers, especially in an area of close to the lower effective lower bound. We will see also the relative roles and interactions between fiscal policies and monetary policies. And finally, also, I think if you talk about fiscal policies, we have to discuss the assessment of the composition of fiscal policies, as well as the promise that the new central, the new central next generation EU program will bear for the post-COVID European recovery. I think that is also one area we might have to expand upon. So without further ado, I turn to the author of the paper and the discussant. The author of the paper is Evi Papa. Evi Papa is a full professor of macroeconomics at Universidad Carlos Tercero in Guetafe, Madrid. And she has had extensive external coverage also not only in Spain, in different universities also in Barcelona, Boconi, London School of Economics. She was recently also in the United States. And her research focuses on fiscal and monetary policy in closed and open economies and the analysis of the business cycles that goes along. The discussant will be Vitor Gaspar. Vitor has a very rich career. He graduated in Portugal first from Universidad de Católica, Portuguesa. Afterwards he got an aggregation in economics from Universidad de Nova de Lisboa. His professional career spent central banking where he started in Portugal, but then also he came very quickly to the ECB. In between I remember that Vitor was part of the Portuguese delegation when we were discussing the Maastricht Treaty back in 1990, 1991. And I think he is one of the only ones of that time that is still regularly around. He was inside the ECB head of research. Afterwards he had stints at the European Commission. He was also at Ministry of Finance in Portugal before, even becoming Minister of Finance himself. But after such a broad career in Europe, obviously Europe became too small for him and he went to the US where he became Director for Fiscal Studies in the Fiscal Affairs Department at the IMF. Usually those people who take that tenure have a very long tenure. But enough, let's immediately start with the presentation of the paper. I give the floor to Evie. Yes, Evie, thanks very much for your kind words and the introduction and thanks to Organizing for inviting me. So today I'm going to talk about Europe. And Europe has been subject to many shocks and starting with abduction by Zeus in Greek mythology. It experienced world wars, collapse of monetary systems and many other tests. Today it is facing a new challenge and my role here today is going to be to describe how and whether discretionary fiscal policy can help us out of the current pandemic crisis. So what I'm going to do before starting and since Zeus also has promised it, I will leave Greek mythology and I will actually move to the Mosque Theater of Córdoba, according to Vitor, describes well the complexity of the fiscal rules in Europe. Since its creation in 1992 with a master treaty and its establishment, the European framework has been criticized, revised, amended multiple times. And this brings us in February 2020 with the European Convention launching a call for a possible revision of the European Governors. So well, I'm not going to talk about the past because the past has passed. So what I'm going to do is I'm going to talk about the future. And that's why I will take you to Belgium and to the Atonium, which should be the building that we should all look for when we look for a European reform. So the European fiscal board in its October annual report suggested that the European reform should envision a permanent fiscal authority able to address large shocks, then a simplification and a leaning of the growth and stability pact, having a differentiated depth anchor adaptable in the medium run. This is going to be actually obtained through an expenditure rule, which lays down credible and country-specific adjustments and speeds to raise a depth anchor. And also this general escape is closed to be activated on basis of independent analysis and advice. And finally, the board also suggests the protection of growth and housing expenditure. And I will come back to this very soon. I think that we should very much welcome the reform suggested by the pact. First of all, because if we looks like it took notice of previous proposals starting from the one of Benasequiere or the 7 and 7 Franco-German economies or Darvas on the expenditure rule, it is suggesting a debt rule, which is simple and it's easy to understand and to implement. The framework recognizes the limitation of one size fits all and allows for differentiating depending on countries needs and capacities. Moreover, it offers flexibility and flexibility is needed to decrease policy uncertainty because flexibility means less sanctions and less exceptions. Also, the expenditure rule seems to have optimal features in the sense that it can induce counter-cyclical deficits. And also, what we have is that given the access to the central capacity will be conditional fiscal discipline, this is going to reduce the danger of irresponsible fiscal policies or free riding. Also, the last two crisis has taught us that it is necessary to have a central fiscal authority that reacts timely on big shocks. So it is very welcome also this suggestion. And finally, as I'm going to show you later, the growth and housing expenditure is probably the expenditures that is first to be cut. So it really needs an effective shield. And I think this suggestion of the EFP is very much welcome. However, I think that we shouldn't beat around the bush and we should recognize that the Achilles skill of euros financial markets is the high level of risk in nature of government debt. And I think that, yes, it is very good to have a medium term objective for debt and to go slowly about it, but I'm not sure it's enough. Well, some colleagues would say growth and housing policies could also be enough because they will increase growth while the interest rates are low. Well, I will have my doubts on that. And actually in the evidence I'm going to present in the end of my presentation, I'll show you that growth might not work the same for everybody. Now, there has been some other discussions and some other proposals in the table, like the Padre Plan by Paris and Wiplos or the framework that Corsetti, Dédola, Jaroczynski, Makovia and Smith have also suggested, which is some kind of debt restructuring. I mean, I understand, I'm not a topic here, I understand that restructuring debt is not going to be welcomed by many European politicians and courts. However, I need to stress as an academic that this would be substantially the road to recovery. Now that said, I'm going to take you to another Greek standard, which is the Iliad. And here what we have is where we stand now. The monetary policy is tightened in the mast of the zero lower bounties, which is what I believe is what's tightened in this mosaic. And we need a new hero. And the new hero we are calling for is discretionary fiscal policy. Before telling you why I think that discretionary fiscal policy is the hero that we need, let me define you the notion of the fiscal multiplier. When I talk about the fiscal multiplier, I talk about how much one euro of a spending increase or of a tax cut translate in terms of GDP increases. The literature review that you will see in the paper that's accompanying this talk shows that there is not a unique multiplier. The fiscal policy effects depend on a variety of factors. Actually, the literature on this topic is ever growing. So the persistence of the fiscal expansion matters. The implementation lags matter and many other things. I cannot talk about them in 20 minutes. However, what I want to tell you is that there are some good news. All the estimated multipliers or the majority of them in the literature shows that their government spending multiplier is positive and significant, which means that a substantial amount of government spending can still leave the economy out of a severe recession, according to what the data tells us. But let's move now to the fiscal policy in the zero lower bound, which is what we would all like to understand. So in order to do that, I'm going to use a standard textbook analysis of an aggregate demand and an aggregate supply curve. I'm going to use a standard textbook analysis of an aggregate demand, which is basically in equilibrium at point E, where the aggregate demand meets the aggregate supply, and then I have a fiscal expansion. What happens with the fiscal expansion? Actually, I'm increasing government absorption, so aggregate demand is going to shift to the right, to the point F, and this would be the end if monetary policy would not react. But monetary policy is going to react because the fiscal expansion creates the zero lower bound, this is not going to happen. Because as we said, and as Klaus said earlier, the monetary policy is tied at the zero lower bound. As a result, we are going to have an expansion with higher output effects and possibly also some inflation. Now, this is what the theory says and that is what is behind the theoretical works of Christiano and Koffers, myself, Egerson, Woodford and many, many others, and I don't want to leave anybody out. Well, here is the intuition. The intuition is that at the zero lower bound, I'm going to have increases in inflationary pressures coming from the fiscal stimuli, and this is going to generate inflation expectations that the monetary policy cannot undo, so this will reduce the real interest rate, and this is going actually to enhance the effects of the fiscal stimuli. What are the empirical evidence on that? Well, medium-moto and Koffers report multiplies for Japan around 1.5 to 2.5, so much bigger than one. And if we look at historical samples in the U.S. from the work of Framme and Zubairi, we see that the multiplier estimated is around 1.5. So, these are good news, but let's put some words of caution in place. First of all, we have to mind the debt. There are a lot of empirical studies by Lzenskian, Koffers, Nikil and Tudika and Fotiu and Koffers that present evidence that says that the fiscal multiplier is lower or it can even turn negative in countries with high debt-to-GDP levels. So, when we think about fiscal expansions, we have to think about the trade-off between active use of fiscal expansion and the risk of triggering unsustainable public debt dynamics. So, we come back to debt here. Another reason why we have to be careful is that the environment should be one of low confidence fiscal expansion might not work. There is a very nice theoretical work by Mertens and Rav that they show that if the liquidity trap isn't used by loss and sadness by the consumers, then a fiscal expansion will not work. People will think that things are really bad and when they will see fiscal policy expanding, they will take a signal that things are worse than what they thought and the expansion will not work. These authors suggest that probably supply-side policies such cuts and labor and taxes could work better in this environment. And the third factor that we have to take into account is uncertainty. Uncertainty might reduce the fiscal impact. This is shown both in works of Bansru and Bunnik and Fernandez and Verdenkothers in which they show that actually under high uncertainty the agents actually are going to adopt the precautionary behavior and they will not actually react to the fiscal signal. So, things can be positive but we have to be careful. Now, I will move to the specific components of government spending and in particular I want to go to growth enhancing and spending and I want to talk about government investment and why I think that the EFTB has a great idea about shielding this kind of investment. Here, you will see in the graph is the evolution of government investment between 2006 and 2019 in selected European-Iran countries. What do we see? We see that Greece, Italy, Spain had their government investment during the consolidation period and this didn't happen in Germany and this should not happen. Why should not happen? So, let's go back to the textbook analysis and understand what government investment does here. So, as I said, a government expansion is going to move us from point H to point J. Well, what government investment does if we believe the estimates of Fassauer is that it increases which means that it shifts also the aggregate supply out leading to less inflationary pressures here and more out. So, there is consensus about the high long-run multiplier of government investment. However, the role of government investment as a sub-analyzation tool is debatable. It looks like that in the short run it might not work. This is done by works like LEPR that shows that actually there might be some crowding out of private investment. Now, this brings us naturally to the new generation EU funds and what I'm going to look at here is what are the macroeconomic effects of the EU recovery plan which is part of ongoing work I have with Fabio Canola. So, what do we do here? We start from the premise that the kind of this fiscal expansion is not unprecedented. Because for 30 years the EU members have been receiving structural funds and so we are going to use this 30 years analysis for 314 European regions and we are going to investigate what kind of effects this fund had for the European economy. We are going to concentrate on two funds. One is the regional development fund which concerns itself with innovation and research. It finances the digital agenda. It's supporting the small and medium size enterprises and low carbon economy and the European social fund which is mainly financing investment in education, health and projects fighting poverty. So, in order to study the macroeconomic effects of these funds what we will do is that we will adopt a local projections and in particular what we are going to do, given the endogeneity of these structural funds we are going to use in the local direction as an instrument the residuals of this second regression here with the structural fund is regressed against aggregate conditions in the European economy such as GDP employment GDP deflator, the nominal interest rate and the nominal exchange rate. Now, the dependent variable here is going to be the cumulative sum up to horizon of the macroeconomic variable of interest and the independent variable is going to be the cumulative sum of the grant that we are going to scale with gross value body. So, this means that I can interpret this coefficient CIEH as the cumulative multiplier at horizon age. So, when I will look at average cumulative multipliers for the European structural investment funds and I'm going to look at two categories one is going to be the ERDF and the ESF funds what I see is that the two funds have very different effects. So, if we look at the ERDF funds what we see is that they have a lot of potential to stimulate the economy on impact. So, they look like a good stabilization tool but as we move towards the further the horizon like we move to the three years we see all the effects of the initial stimuli to dissipate. Instead for the ESF funds we see that this kind of funds look like to actually to crowd out the label market. Why? Because we see a fall in employment here and an increase in their compensation which are significant and they do not affect really output in the short run but as we move towards the three years horizon we see that their effects are not only economically significant they're also important both for output and for investment and their effect on employment is actually positive. So, ERDF funds have an important positive short-term effect while ESF funds have positive effects that they are mostly concerned with the medium run. But this picture is covering a lot of heterogeneities. What this graph does is it is plotting the three year cumulative multiplier for employment and gross value added for different regions in Europe and with red I am picturing here the regions for which both the output and the employment multiplier is negative after three years for the ERDF funds. With purple are the regions in which both multipliers are positive. Green is the region for which we have a positive output multiplier but a negative employment multiplier and the orange is the opposite. We have positive employment multipliers but negative gross value added multipliers. What do we see? We see that the effect of the structural fund is not uniform but we see some kind of concentration. We have a lot of red and a lot of purple which means that we have regions in Central Europe, the UK and the Balkans in which both multipliers are negative while we have positive multipliers in Spain, France, Italy, Finland and Ireland and among other countries. So, the effects of the funds are not going to be unilateral and we have to be aware of that. Now, if we turn to the ESF funds, the picture looks a little bit better because we got rid of the reds here. We have a lot of green and purple which means that the three-year multiplier for almost most of the regions in Europe are going to be positive and for output at least. And we see that we still have some regions like the UK for which the multiplier is always going to be negative. Whether we look at the ESF or the ERDF funds. So, where this leads us? So, this tells us that the NGEU funds have a high probability of success on average and this is good news. The current recession may be effectively constructed by an appropriate combination of grants and loans for both short trans-tabilization through the ERDF funds, for example and medium-run growth like the ESF funds. However, the historical evidence shown you here suggests that the new funds will not have a uniform regional effect, nor help to cut up those who currently last most behind. So, we will need to have structural reform still. The threat that regional inequalities will increase and that the growth and death disparities might emerge is real. So, the Greek legend has it that there was a poet called Dionysio Solomos that he had Italian origins and he was going in the roads of Zante and he was actually buying words Greek words for the locals to write his poetry. So, today I want to offer you this word, megalopsy here. It means the greatness of soul. I'm not asking you here to be naive. I asked you to have a great soul to be magnanimous because I think magnanimous fiscal policy can work and magnanimous is what the president Lagarde said yesterday. We will do everything it can take to save the young generation, but we have to be cautious here and the caution has to do with what instrument we are going to use and what policy objective we are going to target. The second is that we have to be careful with the debt accumulation. The cost of a possible debt crisis is still alive, is still hanging out there. The consumer sentiment and the degree of uncertainty is important and it's something that we have to evaluate when designing fiscal policies in Europe and we have to also be aware that we might have effects on regional disparities which are not going to be un-homogeneous and we have to stay ready to affront these kind of challenges. I thank you very, very much and mostly the organizers for inviting me in this event. As usual, I have run before time because this is how it is. Thank you. Thank you very much V. I wondered myself how you could squeeze such a rich presentation, such a rich paper into a 20-minute presentation, but you did it. Thank you very much for respecting the allocated time. I turn now to Vitor. Vitor is speaking a little bit more slowly. That's why we are located in 10 minutes to discuss the paper. Please, Vitor. Thank you so much Yves. I guess that you can hear me and you can also see my slides.  What I will try to do is to complement the presentation of Evie with some thoughts that I hope you will find useful. And it would be wonderful if the slides with progress which they now do. So I found it interesting from my own purposes to go back to the first ECB Central Banking Conference back in 2001. In that conference there was a paper presentation by Marvin Goodfriend and Bob King in which they made the case for price as the objective for monetary policy. They basically had three main points in their paper. The first is that monetary policy controlled the path of the economy and prices through policy rates. That it did so by following neutral policy and neutral policy was a policy that kept output at potential while ensuring price stability. The second element and that's something which is less prominent in the literature that Goodfriend and King stressed was that for a small open economy integrated and complete financial markets allowed for insurance and therefore consumption smoothing. The issue of stabilization would be to a very large extent tackled by financial markets. And third given that monetary policy would keep output at potential for the area as a whole and insurance would be available at country level public finances should focus on long-term goals like sustainability resilience and distribution. Now we can perhaps think that this was too good to be true and indeed already at the beginning of the process towards monetary integration Alexander Lanfalusi in the law report called to everybody's attention that market forces might be too slow and weak to discipline, profligate governments in normal times but then too sudden and disruptive in crisis situations and indeed this chart with euro area spreads for Spain and Italy is an illustration of Lanfalusi's point if there ever is one. Now it's possible to go much further in discussing these issues and if I believe you will agree that politics fiscal policies and finance are intimately intertwined I don't have time to cover that point in my discussion today but there is a written version which you can access if you are interested on the IMF website so let me now move to current fiscal policy developments and prospects for the euro area and then conclude with the case for public investment and in both cases I will be engaging on the discussion with Evipapa so if we look at what we put out in the fall in the fiscal monitor and the economic outlook we see that for the euro area there is an unprecedented jump up in public debt in 2020 of about 17 percentage points of GDP that is caused by the contraction in economic activity and the very strong policy response that you can see for example by looking at the secretly adjusted primary balance on the right hand side of the slide we want to stress however is monetary fiscal interaction in our prospects and what you see here is that in the period before Covid in brick in this orange brick color you see that the contribution of R-G to the decline in the public debt to GDP path that you had in the previous slide was helped by this negative R-G which is a stylized fact for most countries most of the time then you have the jump up in 2020 that I already commented on but in 2021 to 2025 you have a return to the path that was in place before the Covid crisis but you do see that R-G is more negative than before and that reflects on the one hand monetary policy lower for longer and of course the recovery in economic activity that we have in our projections now Evie emphasized in her presentation very much uncertainty and I want to remind you that our closing date for policies fiscal policy data was September 11 and our forecasts close in September as well and of course we have quite substantial news both on economic developments and fiscal policies so this trends are very much affected by uncertainty and the point that Evie was making that public debt risks have to be managed effectively from a medium to long-term perspective is spot on this slide I will jump over is just to show that expectations on monetary policy have implications for the cost of financing of governments that are quite measurable and important but what I want to emphasize is that despite the public debt risks that are quite substantial in our view the current dominant risk is the risk of premature withdrawal of fiscal support and that would be a repeat of what happened in the aftermath of the global financial crisis where in countries like Italy and Spain for example the tightening of financing conditions and the deterioration in cyclical conditions of the economy was accompanied by a tightening of fiscal policy that Evie has already commented on so let me move on to my last point which is the case for public investment you can make a case for public investment at this juncture based on low interest rates low interest rates for long you can say that uncertainty associated with the pandemic has increased precautionary savings you can speak about postponement of investment decisions and you can make all those very relevant points but here I want to focus on a argument that we've developed in chapter 2 of the fiscal monitor which is that in periods of elevated uncertainty we can expect the public investment multiplier to be exceptionally high now the first thing to bear in mind is that COVID-19 creates a substantial amount of uncertainty and you see on the left hand side that the uncertainty associated with COVID-19 is at an order of magnitude more important than what prevailed in earlier epidemics this is from Bararon Bloom's presentation at Jackson Hole and on the right hand side you see that this epidemic uncertainty translates into economic policy uncertainty but you could also document financial uncertainty or uncertainty about the prospects of the economy which is actually the measure that we use in our analysis and what we find is that in periods of high uncertainty like the ones we live in the fiscal multiplier can be even higher than the numbers quoted by Evi and the reason for that is that action by fiscal authorities to foster long-term growth in the context of the new generation EU with priority on green and digital creates space for private investment to expand and we have private investment increasing by 10% and that's what explains the unusual large magnitude of the fiscal multiplier so here clearly there is room for discretionary fiscal support exactly like the argument made by Evi but Evi also documented past effects of European funds and clearly it's very important to invest in high quality projects and to spend extremely well for that reinforcing transparency and accountability as well as reinforcing infrastructure investment governance are absolutely key and our themes that we at the fiscal affairs department always emphasize this issue is very important for the future growth of the European Union but it's also very important from the viewpoint of the interaction between politics, finance and fiscal policies which I believe is one of the favorite angles of the chair and I will stop now, thank you very much Vito, you have borrowed the minute that Evi did not use up we are now starting to have the question and answers and I want to remind participants to raise their virtual hands and not to be shy I'm quite aware that some of the colleague governors have been away in the FSB plenary where I just come out as well and I hope they will join us and I hope that those other invitees will also not be shy to raise their hands but as is usually the habit we give the floor first to the author to react to the discussion so Evi if you want to say a word on the comments by Vito yes I would like to thank Vito for his very complimentary discussion I mean I really had very little time to cover all the things that they did in the paper so he did a little bit of this back up framework discussion and I thank him for that now I was glad to see your last number about government investment because like the numbers that I have in mind and the works that I have in mind like there is a recent paper by Mario Alosa from the Bank of Spain that he shows that actually in an environment of uncertainty what happens is that we might sometimes the negative feelings of the consumers are going to become like self-fulfilling and so we might end up with multipliers that they are actually negative or zero in such environment so it was very nice to see that your estimates are better than this theoretical work and I also think that quality's investment is that what we should be looking at the difference and it's something that I haven't said in my analysis there is a caveat in my analysis why because these structural funds have been planned in advance they were plans that the EU governments have probably well designed in advance here we are in a situation in which we have to act fast and we have to act even without any planning and this is something that would probably bring down a little bit the estimates that I have reported along with other things like the fact for example that the new generation EU funds are not only going to be grants they are going to be also loans so this is another concern that we have to keep in mind when reading the numbers I just gave you I'll give the floor to Yves now. Thank you Yves we have the first questions coming from the audience it is from Daniel Gros from the Centre for European Policy Studies, please many thanks for these two excellent contributions and the discussion thereof when I hear talking about public sector investment this is sometimes to me like motherhood in apple pie nobody can be against it but is this really the key issue right now we are talking about fiscal deficit sometimes close to 10% of GDP public sector investment is perhaps 2 2.5% of GDP if you want to increase a lot by 20% you get half a percentage point is that really relevant when we are talking about 10 percentage points elsewhere and also when we look at the increase in public sector debt yes we agree that debt which has its counterpart capital created by the public sector might be useful but again most of the debt we are accumulating now and most of the debt we have accumulated from the past has little relationship with public sector investment so should we not really write a little bit this eternal issue that yes more public sector investment is good and concentrate more on the really relevant magnitudes which is this extraordinary increase in public debt and at the same time an increase in uncertainty which would mean that maybe we should be more careful as before with public debt thank you so much Evie would you come in for an answer actually thanks a lot to Daniel for his comments actually I would like to put you some numbers here in the argument so Spain for example is expected to receive about 140 billion euros over the three years with recovery fund okay this given the GVA of Spain 2019 was around 240 billions if the multipliers we obtain here are reliable estimates so we should expect Spain to get an increase in GVA which is between 3 and 3.5% and to employment which is about 2.5 to 3% cumulative over the three years that they are coming so given that there are 19 million people employed in 2019 in Spain that means that the fund is going to generate 500,000 jobs and these new jobs are far above the level that Spain had before the Covid crisis which were 420,000 so I think that the numbers that we have here are economically important even if government investment is a small portion of GDP and concerning why we want government investment well we have seen the last sluggish recovery in Europe has been everlasting because growth couldn't pick up so we need to use fiscal stimulus to do growth and housing kind of investments and this is something that it should work because it could also help also the debt accumulation that you have talked to I don't know now whether Vitor has another opinion so I'm waiting to listen to him yes Vitor could I maybe ask you to answer another question because in the paper she mentioned studies which show that in view of the very long time lag of investment it is very difficult to have an anti cyclical effect from investment if you need seven years before a project goes from the start of a project to the implementation or whether it would not be rather through spending or that you would achieve the right response Vitor could you also answer that happy to so I think that the point made by Danielle on the need to manage public debt risks or public finance balance sheet risks from a medium to long-term perspective is key and those risks are important and they justify attention that being said the business cycle that we are facing is not a normal business cycle the epidemic is a large but temporary shock that will be long-lasting and it's very uncertain it's also an allocative shock in the sense that the economy that we will have after the pandemic will be substantially different than the one we had before we're not going back to what we had before we will have hopefully an economy which is much greener an economy which is much more digital and so public investment in this context place two important functions one given the stance of monetary policy the complementarity between fiscal and monetary and given the long duration of the implications from COVID-19 public investment can be timely in the current conditions and we make a strong case for countries that can afford it to go for public investment that answers your point on time to build because given the lags that we have estimated in the fiscal monitor and given the duration of this shock we can still act but public investment does something else it gives clear signals to economic agents of where the economy should be going and facilitates the transition to this greener and more digital future that is the crucial those are the crucial elements for the case for public investment thank you Vito for reminding this the confidence effect the announcement of investment the next questions now come first from Janis Kronaras from the Governor of the Bank of Greece, Janis please thank you, thank you Liv I would first like to thank every and Vito for very nice and clear presentations I have actually three questions the first is to every in the beginning what are the changes in the EU fiscal rules so can I ask you personally a central fiscal tool can this be connected to perhaps a permanent use of the EU next generation fund so that is my first question my second question do both every and Vito believe that expensive fiscal policy effective lower bound is a better alternative than increasingly optimal inflation targets so it is perhaps a solution to the conundrum that Fabio mentioned earlier and my final question is also related to what Daniel Gross mentioned it is about high death countries is it perhaps better than the use of 100% transfers from the EU generation on loans to these very high death countries for the pandemic thank you thank you Janis I pass on to Evi and then again to Vito yes thanks a lot for your comments actually regarding your first question I think yes we should use the COVID crisis and the exceptional measures that they are taking into account to move forward in Europe so what I mean is as I said before a very nice work by Corseti, Dedola, Jaroczynski, Makovac and Smith from the European Central Bank in which they show that actually the institutional setup that they have to have in Europe has to have two anchors one anchor is the introduction to the European Fund which is something that it is kind of an embryo it is already going to happen soon and the second is the feature that is the ability of a Euro member to go for restructuring of the public debt so yes I really believe that they also have to take in order to revise the fiscal framework in Europe now regarding whether the fiscal policy alone should be used to help the economy out of the zero lower bound I think the suggestion of Jordi Galli yesterday of using a combination of factors so fiscal policy together with a variable average inflation targeting could be like the wise choice here so listen to what Argea Bordone said before and Cloud Conversations now in the issue about whether grants versus loans obviously all the European countries are going to use the grants first so I think the result that I gave you are pretty accurate now what about loans? I happen to have a student here in Carlos Der Thero Morteza Gomi that he is actually working on the effectiveness of loans from the European investment bank in different European countries and he finds actually that the effects of loans from the European investment bank could be very expansionary in longer horizons that the ones that I have shown you in my presentation so I am positive that both grants and loans can work and especially when they are well designed for increasing government investment that they are going to enhance growth so I will leave it now to Victor to continue thanks Evi and that works very well for me I think to cover very well the grants versus loans question I would just point out that if you are in a situation where a public investment is highly productive and the multiplier is elevated you have public investment creates good conditions for repaying public debt even if it is financed by loans but the point that I want to emphasize a little bit more is what is the role of fiscal policy at the current juncture and I think that is a very good question I do believe that fiscal policy can do basically two things one is support monetary policy in a situation where monetary policy is constrained by the effective lower bound or by the shadow of the effective lower bound in those conditions making sure that monetary policy is not the only game in town is very important the monetary fiscal policy mix becomes important and looking at how this will work overtime is crucial to contain risks to financial stability and the economy including the public debt risks that Daniel Gross was emphasizing but there is something else which is very important fiscal policy is much more granular than monetary policy fiscal policy can target specific sectors of the economy fiscal policy can provide incentives that are crucial for a speedy transition to a new growth path a fiscal policy can target support specific segments of the population to do specific firms it's much harder for monetary policy to do that without fiscal support so for these two reasons I see a strong role for fiscal policy at the current juncture thank you Vito we turn now to the next questions I am told this is only coming over by audio signal no video audio signal it is for Giancarlo Corsetti from Cambridge please hi I don't know my connected video sorry about this you rightly so mentioned the problem the risks from situations in which you can have multiplicity multiple equilibria and instability and we know that multipliers may be negative in those cases we know at this point that probably that is growing globally at very high level my question is clearly risk of multiplicity is not a reason not to use fiscal policy that is not the right question the right question is what can we do what are the instruments to reduce the possibility of multiplicity of an anchoring expectation of again something that happened at the beginning of 2010 2011 in Europe I just wonder whether you have any comment on this what kind of instruments do we need on top of OMTs we know that there is a way at the core of monitoring fiscal interaction a common interest in keeping the equilibrium on a good path what instruments would you think we need at this point facing the pandemic what are the what strategy could be best deployed for this target thank you well I mean now I don't like to be the first because this is a difficult question thanks a lot for your intervention yes anchoring expectations that is not going to be easy of course what we have to do if we want to reduce uncertainty is definitely to reduce the implementation lags and like when we say we're going to use a fiscal instrument to use it timely in terms of fiscal policy now we have to have a clear communication on what is going to be the goal for fiscal policy relative to monetary policy and somehow to raise sentiment I mean it is easy to say difficult to do in practice but I think that already cutting down the implementation lags in fiscal policy and being clear about the policy objectives would be already a good road ahead so it's an excellent and very difficult question as you said the way I see it is that at this point in time if you look at a geographic area like the Euro area there's a clear complementarity between fiscal and monetary policies exactly as you indicated as time goes by it will be important to provide a strong anchor to expectations which requires that one gives clear signals about a stability oriented overall macroeconomic policy framework where the institutional division of responsibilities between monetary and fiscal operates harmoniously one of I know I sound like a broken record but one of the crucial aspects to ensure that future stability is to have a robust approach to public that management and to the more general management of public finance risks thank you Vito I am struck that we do not seem to have questions coming from participants originating from low depth countries so I don't want to conclude that we had an interesting session on what are the advantages of a free lunch meaning no rules free spending no control I think that is certainly not what was intended if we have had a not so positive experience with a rule based framework my question would then be as last question that we should make the difference between the rules which are not bad because they exist but maybe they are bad because they were not implemented and then ask why were they not implemented do we not have an issue with governance and after all we see that some of the higher depth countries have tried to prevent themselves from changing the rules when there is a crisis including those rules in primary law in a higher law or by giving a control on implementation to an outside of executive body so is that not also a direction in which we should do some research how to have better more intelligent but above all how can we implement rules rather than doing away with all the rules and only favoring discretion we have two more minutes to give an answer Evi would you start or would you mute Evi yes Evi is muted I don't know I didn't do anything I can hear you so let's start with Vito this time and the last word will be for Evi okay thank you that's absolutely fine so I do believe that fiscal rules and fiscal discipline are very important I believe that focusing on the management of public debt risks and more generally public finance risks is crucial as you emphasize yourself repeatedly the issue of fiscal policy and politics are intertwined at a very deep level and I'm much looking forward to the outcome of the monetary policy strategy review of DCB and the subsequent revisiting of the European fiscal rules by the European Commission and I certainly hope that the new generation of rules will be better adapted to what we have learned from the accumulation of experience in the last 20 years or so I stop here Evi thank you yes I think that it is dangerous to ask the question about how the European Union would be without the rules so the desirability of fiscal rules is something that it can be subject of only a theoretical debate rules should be there and as I have shown you before the analysis I show you for different countries what we have to do is that we have to combine rules and also emphasize to the member countries the need for structural reform so I would say that the rules should be there and we should always keep in mind that structural reform should happen so we don't have to rely so much on rules in the future thank you very much Evi I think with those wise words dispenses me of making a conclusion because I would fully endorse what has been said and with these words I pass over from the master economics to the master of ceremony please Thierry indeed thank you very much Yves and speakers for sharing your thoughts on this important topic we now have another break and we'll see all of you back here at 4.30 sharp thank you


Live from Orlando, Florida, extracting the signal from the noise, it's theCUBE. Covering Enterprise Connect 2016. Brought to you by Oracle ZDLRA, Vonage and CafeX. Now, your hosts, John Furrier and Peter Zantesonio. Hello everyone, welcome to theCUBE's special presentation of Enterprise Connect 2016. I want to thank our sponsors, Oracle ZDLRA, Zero Data Loss Appliances, Vonage and CafeX. Thanks for your support for being here. I'm John Furrier, co-host of theCUBE. We're here with Elka Popova, who's a Frost and Sullivan and analyst. Welcome to theCUBE. I'm glad to be here, thank you. So you've been covering for 15 years, you mentioned the space and the enterprise space with around unified communications has always been about voice, voice and then telephony, voice over IP and Vonage is one of those early pioneers that have been disrupting the existing incumbents and now they're transforming. But that's the theme here. The cloud has enabled more compute, more agile, more data services, these enablers are changing essentially what used to be siloed apps, chat, email, collaboration, all now coming together and it's all software, it's all integrated, it's all silo busting. What's your take on this? You guys are covering this at Frost and Sullivan, what's your take on this? Well, we're seeing a lot of excitement around the cloud and cloud unified communications. This space is referred to by many different names. We call it UCAS, we call it cloud you see. The growth is driven by a number of factors. On one hand, as you pointed out, that there is a growing arsenal of communications and collaboration tools. Voice is now joined by messaging and email of course, that's been around for a while, but there's instant messaging and presence and video conferencing and web conferencing and collaboration social apps and so on. And this is really making the communications infrastructure more and more complex. Business is removing the communications to the cloud and these collaboration solutions to the cloud to be able to more efficiently manage their solutions. So it's becoming more complex, yet the user experience needs to be simplified. That's another theme here. How are people getting it done? I mean, we hear cloud, APIs, everything is a service these days. Certainly UC as a service is a big buzzword. How do they take the complexity out of it so that it's more simple for either developers and end users? Well, there are a number of ways, but unified communications, the term unified, is what was always meant to simplify the experience for the end user. To put together one single client that provides access to all of the communications and collaboration applications so that you can click to call, click to message, click to conference. We're seeing that taking place on the premises with premises based systems and it's certainly happening in the cloud communication space as well. How about integration? It's a theme we hear all day in our interviews also on the web. It's something that's the number one conversation as the web RTC is getting better. But they're hinting at the integration challenges now because now whether you have legacy infrastructure or you're cloud native, pulling this all together is a real challenge. What's your thoughts on that and what are the road map items that customers should pay attention to when really thinking about going to the cloud, whether it's hybrid or public or private. There's a lot of architectural decisions on the table. Correct, correct. One of the main issues today is about how to use these advanced communications and collaboration tools to actually accelerate or improve business processes, to achieve some broader business results and not just make communications less expensive or a little bit easier to use. And to accomplish this, we service providers, vendors, businesses out there are looking to integrate the communications applications with productivity applications or other business applications of various nature. Whether those CRM applications or maybe help desk applications or very specific vertical apps. But we're moving closer and closer to that vision of communications being real enablers of business productivity, business agility and overall competitive advantage. Elka, I got to ask you a question because one of the things that I'm excited about with this space is it's intersecting with the software world. Certainly even on the analysts, I started to see the analysts kind of blend together and the vendors themselves are all reshaping themselves because the customer doesn't care about the categories and where they have solutions, whether it's a retail app or some of the banking app or anything, it's a cloud equation now with on-prem, all these complexities. So I got to ask you the question, how do you determine when you look at companies? Who's on the old side of the street and who's on the new side of the street? Because the new schools are completely different mindset than this old mentality. So in this space in particular where there's a lot of transitional existing vendors and certainly the big names we see, Microsoft, Cisco, you name it, all are out there, even IBM's in here in this space as well. These guys are transforming but then you got the upstarts. Cafe acts, Vonage, these dropbox just announced massive numbers and that's just file sharing in the cloud. So you have upstarts, you have disruption but the enterprises have table stakes, enterprise grade requirements. Who's old, who's new, how do you decide? Very interesting question actually. I gave a presentation on Monday on who's going cloud communications and I had a chart showing the different categories of service providers offering cloud communications today and you do see some of the traditional telcos. You do see some of the more traditional PBX vendors. Some of the, some more traditional IT vendors and providers but you see also providers focused entirely on UCAS or on next generation messaging solutions. There are contact center vendors, VARs and so on that are offering cloud communication solutions and all of them are bringing something different and differentiated to the table. They have different advantages and disadvantages and some of them are pitching the strengths and footprint of their network. Others are showing their more advanced features and functionality at a third group can really deliver value through the integration of cloud communications with let's say IT, other IT solutions and productivity apps and so on. So in my opinion, there is a space for everyone. There are customers out there that are looking for different solutions and capabilities but it's really a matter of execution about who's going to succeed in this space and who may not be as efficient. Yeah, you could have a highly differentiated solution and be down a cul-de-sac with no market. I mean that's potential. Correct, it's a combination of strategy and execution. So let's talk about big data for instance. IoT seems to be a theme that's creeping into this space because it is data, digital digitization of digital transformation is a part of this, the human component of engagement as you hear that message a lot. That's all coming together. What's the role of big data because engagement certainly is no brainer on that. You can say, hey, engagement and interaction and making that elegant and easy and making that workable is a great outcome. Cool. But now you've got things like cognitive and AI, virtual reality, other kinds of communications that are around the horizon. So the data is a very big part but what's your view on the whole data piece? Well, big data is only as good and as useful as your analytic tools are in reality unless you have the right analytic tools to properly process the data and then provide insights, you know, predictive or other insights that help your business react upon the data collected. Big data is really not going to be of great value to the organization. So Hadoop can help you store data and big pile of data that you get to later. It could be a data swamp but if you don't use the data, if you have the data you got to get it and then you got to use it. If you don't have it, that's what you're saying. Exactly. To be able to actually make business decisions based on the data, you need to be able to properly analyze it and draw conclusions. So let's say from a customer perspective because this shift that's happening is impacting customers, the doers, the digital builders and they're being bombarded with salespeople knocking on the door. I'm going to sell you my product. We're featured in the research at Magic Quadrant on Gartner, Frost and Sullivan that says we're in a rising vendor and the customer's like, look, I got my own problems. I got to re-engineer to get my business rolling again. This seems to be the cloud agile mindset. Can you share some data on what you're hearing from customers and how they're approached because certainly vendors, it looks like noise in some cases to them. How do they sort through this? How do they make in those decisions? So customer decision making processes vary and we know very well that some customers have a more structured approach to their communications investments and other customers maybe a little more spontaneous and make these decisions based on existing relationships, solely on brand or solely on the feature set. I would personally recommend that all businesses have a very structured approach starting with thorough assessment of their own assets, their own capabilities, the nature of their workforce, the capabilities of their IT staff and then they also need to review their business goals and objectives but broader business goals and objectives, those that go beyond the communications solutions themselves. And then they need to start evaluating the service providers on a pretty complex and comprehensive list of criteria. So they need to look at the obviously feature set price, more specifically the total cost of ownership but then they also need to look at the reliability of the solution, the integration and customization capabilities of the solution and the overall service provider viability and vision and roadmap. And securities, obviously. Oh, securities is a paramount. Not even an item, it's inherent in all conversations. Correct, correct. Actually, when we asked our customers about what they considered, the top criteria in their cloud provider selection, two things ranked very high, reliability and security. Price was a close third but then everything else was really lower in their list of criteria. So I've got to ask you the consumerization trend. And obviously you mentioned IT and the role of IT certainly changing but I interviewed the CEO of Vonage earlier today and they were a residential voice company and they were very disruptive. They killed the I-Lex, they got in at the last mile on the voice side. Very consumer driven. Now they're shifting to business. So this is the trend, consumer to business but now in this market there's a lot of business trying to be more consumer like. Is that a challenge? Is that for the industry? Is there an approach that you've seen works? Can you do both? Are they mutually exclusive? Because it's hard to be a business to be more consumer so that's the trend. But yet Vonage is showing that you can be a consumer and come in and do business. What's your tip? Businesses need to adapt to the new realities. Business users are much more savvy today bringing consumer tools into the business environment including obviously their mobile devices. That's a typical example we always give but also they're using WhatsApp and they're using consumer social media for business purposes and other consumer tools. So businesses need to really capitalize on this trend. Provide their users with the right devices and applications whether they have a consumer background or not but they need to also implement certain policies to ensure that these are properly managed. All the consumer tools that are being brought into the enterprise that they're as secure as possible and that they become part of a business strategy instead of becoming all these rogue devices or applications within the organization. They've got to be vetted. Those things got to be from a security standpoint. So the developer is big. So like we were seeing a trend where it's an app economy, API economy, those are kind of the buzzwords that gets kicked around. Cisco announced today on stage here at Enterprise Connect a fund for developers.  That seems to be the thing but there's still a horizontal open source, big data, all that stuff's going on to the hood. So developers are a key part of this digital transformation in an ecosystem kind of way. So I've got to ask you, what are you seeing for developers in this space? I mean, is there a ton of traction as to the end user focus, for usability as being what's your take? I mean, are they making the right moves by enticing developers? How do they entice developers? Do you track that? Do you have any comments? Well, there is certainly a market for pre-packaged apps and there is also a market for platforms as a service, APIs and other tools provided to developers to further customize solutions and deliver custom tailored applications for either a specific enterprise or a specific vertical. I think we will see both trends develop going forward. Thanks for sharing your time. And final question, what's the show like this year? What's so important about this year in this market space right now? Well, as a UCAS analyst, I'm excited to see more sessions on cloud you see UCAS. Again, names may vary, but we're talking about the same thing. I'm also excited to see that some of the biggest sponsors this year are cloud communications companies such as Vonage and 8x8 and others. I'm also excited to hear from these providers that they're making some significant announcement that they're seeing a lot of traffic in their booths. In fact, I think that they've seen record interest in their communication solutions. It's going to be a booming market, Elka here at Frost and Sullivan breaking it down. Follow her research, go to Frost and Sullivan, check it out. Cloud Services is coming to the unified communication space. It's UC is dead, it's now UCC. Collaboration is going to be the focus. Thanks so much Elka for sharing this with theCUBE. I'm John Furrier on the ground at Enterprise Connect 2016.


It's awesome man. I mean to come into 3000, now 250, you know, this is a sport that goes back a long, long ways and those are numbers that more so than any other sport mean something and speak to his greatness and his longevity and you know, for him to go out there today and he was great, you know, and he, he, he, you know, as we talked a lot about his last couple of outings where he's struggling to find the cutter a little bit. I think he got better as the game kind of unfolded. I thought his stuff improved as it as it unfolded. He stared at me pretty hard walking off of the six. I thought he's going to challenge me for the seventh. But no, I'm just really excited for him to go out and set the set the tone for us today and finish off a really good series. You mentioned the past couple of starts. Did you get the sense that he was just itching to get this out of the way, get this milestone number out of the way? No, no, because I mean, CC is not really like that.   But I feel like with CC, you know, it really is about team. And that's why he's so beloved in our room and whoever's gotten to play with him before. So I didn't ever sense it was a distraction. We're all fired up for him in there that that it is that number. But I never sensed it as a distraction. Blake's now is as good as they get.  But as that first inning is unfolding, what's the feeling like in that dugout? I mean, that's, that's, that's the ultimate job of controlling the strike zone right there. You know, we took everything that, you know, I think he's normally gets chases on a lot of those pitches. And because we controlled the strike zone so well, he ends up throwing, I think he threw 39 pitches in that inning. And we got him out of there. Obviously the big home run. But more than that, it was just every guy putting on a really tough at bat against them and and more down, you know, one of the game's best pitchers. It was I thought a clinic of our guys kind of just controlling the zone. Behind you, Justin. Aaron, what does it mean to be able to sweep a team that you're battling for a division with in such a dominant fashion? Yeah, I mean, it, it's all that's big.  And, you know, especially I think the respect that we have for that team and know how tough they are and, you know, for us to have that kind of series against them right there. That it's a nice way to go in the evening. Mark in the center. Aaron, based on your long experience, your lifetime in this game, how has Cece been able to be so good for so long?  And that's essentially what he has and that's why he's been able to adapt as he's gotten here later in his career. Left side of the room, Natalie. I don't know. Another story is way too early. But all of the pitch is being two-fifth and three thousand cake. All of them is like one is being Hall of Fame. Do you consider Cece a big candidate for Hall of Fame? Yeah, I think it's I think he's a lock. Yeah, so this is it for him. I think five years they come calling. Yeah. Bob Aaron with the way the rotation has straightened itself out sweeping the rays with judge coming back tomorrow. What position has this team has been in all year? You know, we hit a rough patch there for 10 days or so.  I feel like the last five in a row now. I feel like we've played really well. We've swung the bats starting pitching has been good. The bullpen has been good. And I feel like we've played really good defense. That's allowed us to win some really clean games. So, but with this group, I never really worry about the highs and lows of the season that are inevitable. You know, you're going to hit a bump in the road. You're going to get hot at different times. I think we do a really good job of just kind of turn the page, you know, and focus on the next day. And that's what we'll do now. And as we get ready for a really good Astros team. Meredith. Speaking of pitching and tomorrow, will it be Chad Green as the opener? It'll, we'll talk for sure. But I think you could probably expect that. Yeah. Lindsay on the left. Obviously you guys are still waiting for Judge to get back maybe this week. But overall over the last few days, do you feel like this is the most complete the team has been this season? Obviously we're getting healthier. You know, feel good about where we're at as a club. And, you know, the lineup we're running out there right now obviously can can inflict some damage. So feel like we're in a good place looking forward to getting Aaron back in the fold. Obviously, you know, a couple other guys along the way that we know we're going to get back. So, you know, it's just kind of nose down though. And, you know, let's go. We know at whatever point during the season, we feel like we can go out and win games. And that expectation doesn't change at all. Thank you, everybody.


Anyway Okay in this session we'll talk about monitoring of Kubernetes with OpenStack monaska So I'm Christoph. I'm working for Jitsu and I'm Kubernetes contributor and I will talk about the Kubernetes part in the session My name is Vitek Vedic I also work for Fujitsu and my focus is on a monaska project and We'll talk about monaska in this part of the session Yes, so what is monaska? Who can tell? No one don't be shy So These two guys know for sure because they have to care about their OpenStack they want to efficiently monitor their cloud system and monaska is the OpenStack monitoring and logging service So it can store retrieve Metrics you can It supports a thresholding and notifications You can also store logs retrieve logs and create alarms on logs monaska is High-performance scalable and fault-tolerance system. Here you can see the overview of the architecture of monaska So you can see it is Microservice-based architecture. You have all these small components as microservices They can always separately scaled So it's a good design for the for the cloud application at the top. You can see the apis In the middle the central component the Kafka queue, which is Apache storm And below all these small components are actually working can work independently of each other. You can also add some more components like for example lock metrics or Which is not depicted here monaska analytics or monaska transformer Lock metrics is the the component we added It is there for generating the metrics Based on the entries in the logs so you can combine these two parts logging and metrics and Combine in alerting the information from two sources or kind of complex event processing Yeah, okay Let me give you a very quick recap on kubernetes Kubernetes is a system to run and manage containerized applications in a distributed environment And basically what it is doing it's abstracting For you the complexity of scheduling containers On nodes and routing the traffic between containers And even in in case of node failures or horizontal scalings Our Kubernetes is quite flexible. You can run it on a 9 euro PC or on a full data center in this case It's open stack and we want to make sure that We utilize all the available services Um, I also want to have a quick look on the architecture. We will need it later for the integration So kubernetes cluster consists of a master node. This master node has an API Component and some controller components And then we have many worker nodes each worker node as a kubelet It's an agent of the master received commands from the master And we have a proxy that routes Traffic between the containers and finally we have the containers the actual workload So in our It's in our we assume that you run kubernetes On top of open stack And monaska is available to you As a service from your Open stack provider With this integration Basically, what you can do is something like google's container offering gke How they integrate with their cloud monitoring offerings? um Before I continue I would like to elaborate a little more on kubernetes monitoring So you better understand the value of the integration So this is kubernetes dashboard Um, this is in large parts developed by me and my team Um Actually, we do not call this a monitoring user interface. We call it A management and troubleshooting using the face Yeah, small difference The reason is that The dashboards we we focus on use cases. So we look at users and problems And then think about what kind of information do they need? To solve these problems and then we arrange all this information It's linked and so on and arrange the information around these use cases And the result is it's Very easy to use But it's limited to these use cases. So it's not a general purpose monitoring system So getting a bit deeper into architecture Um, again, we have in this diagram have a kubernetes cluster On the left hand side, we have a couple of nodes that run containers as a workload Now containers are basically processes You can monitor them and um kubernetes Has a metric agent. It's called cadvisor and cadvisor is compiled into kubernetes cadvisor Takes these metrics and then exposes them be a rest interface Um, it's completely stateless itself So the next component is hipster. Hipster is a singleton and um It carries the api server to get a list Of all nodes then iterates over each node and scrapes the metrics process them And then again exposes the the the collected metrics Be a rest interface Hipster itself has no persistence It keeps all data in memory for 15 minutes So and finally dashboard accesses hipster And as a result, uh, dashboard has no historic data and also no custom metrics So next part logs, um, again similar scenario We have a couple of nodes with containers and these containers write log messages on standard out And um the container runtime persists these log messages into files And now if you in dashboard access Logs then actually dashboard access the api server api server Goes to the corresponding qplat and qplat retrieves The log files and all the way back to dashboard So there's no processing involved Dashboard just presents these log files So you don't have search capabilities Transformation or anything like that So to summarize, um The good parts on the nice parts on kubernetes dashboard is It just works. It's typically installed by default And it's also easy to use Works effective But it also has some limitations and These limitations, uh You have again, uh, you have no historic data. You have no search You cannot customize. You have no custom metrics And you have no alerts or no triggers So when You integrate with monaska Of course, all these limitations are actual strengths of monaska And you get some additional benefits if you use monaska as a service Rather than installing yourself And first of all, of course, you don't have to worry yourself about operating a monitoring system And second also The monitoring system is outside of your cluster. You know, it's outside of your own system and Yeah, it's often many don't like it if the monitoring target is part of the Of the monitoring system is part of the monitoring target. Let's say And yeah, and finally there are also still a lot of, um Users out there that have mixed environments So they run part of the application one in kubernetes, but still they have Lots of other parts of the application running outside in virtual machines And with monaska, you can monitor both Um So the actual integration um Yeah, we forward Metrics and logs from kubernetes to monaska monaska api And one thing that is important to understand is that we don't only Modify kubernetes or we just you you configure kubernetes, but you do not modify the applications So you just can deploy any application to kubernetes and the metrics and the logs from from these applications will automatically appear at monaska so Same diagram as before it just extended it with the monaska integration So heaps that has an extension mechanism. It's called sync and we have implemented monaska sync This monaska sync it's upstream of course. It's part of heaps So it's part of every kubernetes installation If you happen to run a kubernetes cluster you have it You just have to enable it So this is your first task when you come home Enable monaska sync.  Yeah, it's really just an api call to heaps. Yeah very simple, yeah, and for logs we We simply thought the best thing to do is just take the monaska log agent and Deploy it as a kubernetes demon set Now kubernetes demon set have Some very nice characteristics kubernetes takes care that Always one instance of the lock Lock agent is deployed on every node And this works even if you later on Put additional nodes to your cluster when kubernetes takes care and then also deploys a lock agent to this node So you always have one agent deployed on every node Yeah, so The data we have reached monaska and i pass over to vitik So uh In monaska, we have the concept of dimensions And they are there to uh describe the the metrics where the metrics come from What what they what they are about so the The the the set of metric keys and metric values together with a tenant id Is the set which uniquely identifies the the metric And of course hipster and monaska Describe the data a little bit different so In the integration uh step we had to consider Carefully, how do we map the the data which we have in kubernetes? To the dimensions in in uh in monaska so that we can use that information Meaningful and also consistent with the with the rest of Measurements in monaska The first advantage of using monaska for monitoring kubernetes christoph already mentioned are custom visualizations and also historical data Searching the data so here we can see the screenshots of the of the dashboards from grafana and kibana For visualizing uh metrics and and blocks They are uh highly customizable You can create on dashboards you can work interactively Look for the historical data search for the historical data interactively I will show it In a few minutes in the in the demo The next advantage of using monaska is its alerting capability. So You in in monaska we have the concept of alarm definitions With a simple syntax you can you can define the conditions When the alarm gets triggered When the when the threshold is exceeded the alarm is the Changes the state to the alarmed state And the notification to the user is sent Monaska supports the pluggable notification mechanism So apart from from the standard notification methods like email Webhook and pager duty at the moment. There are also three other plugins for hipchat slack and jira And here on the slide I have listed two examples So what what what the alarms could look for the first one is the alarm on the on the locks We are looking for the error messages for wordpress application with a code error 404 And another one is the compound alarm where you have the metrics Coming from from hipster and the Lock metrics coming from the from lock entries Errors from in in the lock messages and you can combine these two together All right, let's come to the demo But it can be complicated now because I don't have the display here One second You have to find one one way that works for you both here I'll let let me let's close this one. All right, but then I can't see anything Let's go back to the no, this is not right. This is not good. Let's make it like this. I will just yeah, you have to All right, I don't know why it's working different to any other monitor. Can you see this? Is it okay? Right. Okay. So here is the horizon dashboard with a monitoring UI It's empty Zoom in you said Cannot speak German. I don't know how can we I Yeah, we can translate maybe they use a mini one I cannot see it here I don't think we don't there are not so many words means overview Simultaneous translation. All right, the dashboard is empty because I haven't created any alarm definitions Alarm definitions, it's English, right? Oh nice, okay, let's create An alarm definition I want to have an alarm which Looks after errors in the log messages of our example application guest book So I will just look for The maximum of the metric log error And if it is greater than null I want to launch the alarm. I will also limit this alarm to Container guest book and I want to the alarm to be deterministic. So it does not Transit transition to undetermined state only okay or alarm And I will add the Hipchat notification in the In the event details Of our presentation I have added a link to the hip chat room if you like you can go there And you should see the notification if everything is going Okay, so we have the alarm definition There should be no alarm yet because we don't have any errors And now I go to the kubernetes Dashboard we we can see here the metrics and some Kubernetes container with the cpu usage memory Now let's go to the default namespace and Deploy our example application guest book Upload And the application should be there. Let's check it out Guest book that's just a simple Guest book application You can write some entries And if you repeat the entry you will get an error You can See that error in the in the kubernetes dashboard Here it is But it's just plain text right so what what we want Is uh, we want to look after this error now in the in the Ubersicht In kibana dashboard So I will look for our error I have saved here a dashboard for kubernetes what we can see in the dashboard Is the histogram with all the law countries and here the container we have You can see the number of Container number of ports Here are filtered the error messages only Through different container we can see the errors are in the kubernetes master And here are the lock levels in the outer Ring and container in the inner ring. So all right and here at the bottom just The messages themselves so um, I see that we are flooded with With error messages from kubernetes master. So I will filter this out Yeah, now it's more meaningful And I can see that here in the guest book container. I have the error message here No, let's This I don't need so I will filter for guest book application lock level error apply And I can see these are the error messages. I was looking for right, isn't it? Okay Um, we have the log matrix component which generates Uh matrix from the logs. Let's see if I can find them in the matrix dashboard in grafana. I have Again saved dashboard for kubernetes Here at the top are the system matrix about cpu and memory usage. Here are the cpu and memory matrix for for Several container And the matrix for our guest book application cpu memory The health check and here are the Here is the error Metric we have generated Okay, so if if there was an error there should also be an alarm, right? Let's go. Yeah kubernetes alarm critical That's what we wanted And let's go to the hipchat And I cannot see anything Why There was actually an affusion Is it the one 12 I cannot see Is it the one let's assume it's the one All right It's actually all right. So that's the notification I wanted great Yeah, that's it. Okay. Thank you very much konday any questions question. Yes, if you have any questions There is a yeah, so the question was Grafana and kibana do they have plugins for for monaska? So grafana has its data source from monaska data source which allows to read the matrix from monaska Grafana 3 integration it is and For for logs we use standard elk with our own plugins. So We have the plugin for for kibana which Gives us authentication. So you you write your data Per project and we are also in We're working on a multi-tenancy plugin for kibana So the after you authenticate you can see only the data for a for a given project But the the communication between kibana and elastic search is is the standard Right elastic search is the data story for for a box. Yes Yeah Please louder. I cannot hear Yes So, uh, the only communication Which you need is between agent and the api and it supports SSL Yes Yes, so in this case, it's monaska service. So you just use this service from your open stack provider Of course, you also can deploy elk Um in your kibana this cluster But then you have to manage yourself Also, you don't have this kind of advanced processing and and transformation and what's The anomaly detection and so on all these kind of things that monaska has but elk does not have But it Yeah No, no, it's part of monaska. So a message Yeah, so the question was about kafka if it is in Installed in kubernetes. No kafka is a part of part of monaska so I would if you want to learn more about kubernetes if you want to learn more about monaska If you want to learn something about fujitsu k5, which is our open stack cloud offering Please come to our booth To give you more reason to come to our booth. We have great giveaways parrot drone And also we have a really fascinating Oculus rift You can try out So I hope see you later. Thank you. Thank you


brought to bring in Jonathan Sheridan. He's joining us from fake security. So let's talk about this global rates environment. Good afternoon to you by the way. Good afternoon Nadine. I guess we could start by talking about the Bank of England. Surprise many in the marketplace by not cutting rates. Obviously it's a judgment call at the end, but the BOE clearly sees the risks to the downside, to the economy in the wake of this British exit from the European Union. So was it just a matter of them waiting to see more economic data before that August meeting that kept them on the sidelines? Look I think that as you say it was a surprise and I do agree with you that they see downside to the economy, but the positive thing about the announcement was that in the Bank of England's opinion that markets are functioning normally so there was no liquidity crunch. You know the currency performed as expected when you know it's sold off about 10% and then it's come back a little bit since then. So you know that financial stability is one of the key things that central banks look at and when markets are functioning efficiently then you know outside of the broader economic effects that they like then they're obviously in this case in particular not keen to change policy settings when markets are functioning as they expect. And then you have what's happening in the US. It seems as if the US Federal Reserve can always find a reason to hold. Perhaps some would say there will always be something out in the marketplace to keep you on the sidelines you know to say don't do it don't do it just yet. But when you look at what's happening in the US in terms of economic data and now if we can go by Alcoa and JP Morgan company profits it certainly seems as if the reasons for waiting are decreasing in the US. Is that how you see that equation? Yeah look I mean the earning season is interesting. The actual consensus expectations have been managed down very successfully by the companies and then you know they're all attempting to beat that. JP Morgan for example did beat expectations by recording only a 1.8% fall in earnings. You know so it's the seventh consecutive earnings season where average earnings have fallen and yet we're seeing stock prices at record highs. So there's this interesting divergence in markets at the moment where bond markets are making record lows in yields and stock markets are making record highs. One of them's got to be wrong and you know given earnings are falling we're not seeing inflation pressures you know even in the really strong payrolls number we had last week there was no real wage growth and that translates into no real inflation. I think that the bond markets are going to be proved correct in this instance. Yeah interesting. So all of this hunt for yield I mentioned the German the Japan situation when it comes to yields is pushing a lot of people into perhaps more riskier corporate debt. Now we continue to see strong flow into Newcastle Coal I believe for example could you give us the details on that one tell us how much it's paying and structurally I guess where the risks are. Yeah absolutely. So particularly with the currency at elevated levels against the US dollar this is a good bond for our clients it seems they are continuing as you say to chase yield. It's the Newcastle Coal Terminal so you know Coal's been back in favour in the last month or so we had a Morgan Stanley report saying that at least in the near term the future of coal looks pretty bright with supply and weather curtailments coming from China in their domestic coal production so this bond it yields 11.3% over the next 11 years to the first call. It's a typically longer dated bond from an infrastructure asset although your security position is not fantastic you are what's called structurally subordinated so we're lending to the holding company of the group. That's partly what the reason for that extraordinarily high yield. I think what's attracting our clients to it is that even if there was an issue and they would be in a relatively low recovery position that's a very good equity kind of return in something that is obligated to pay you a coupon. So you know your returns are not variable they're locked in and you know if things go well then 11.3 is an exceptionally strong return in this environment. Oh certainly is double digit that's pretty exceptional in this environment and we're told it's going to be remaining that way for some time. What else are you watching as we head toward the close of the session and we go closer to the start of the UK and the US sessions just briefly. Yeah look I mean your point about the currency was interesting it's you know it's popped up on some good Chinese data. I think our view on the currency is that as you mentioned you know our 10 year bond for example is yielding nearly 50 basis points more than the US 10 year bond really we're just you know if you've got global capital flows we're just a spread to everything else and that spread is positively in our favor at the moment so there's a huge weight of money coming into our bond market to pick up that extra 50 basis points compared to the US and you know almost nearly 2% compared to those other negative yielding bond markets so I think that's pushing our currency higher and it'll be interesting to see how high it does go. Yeah absolutely okay interesting times Jonathan Sheridan pleasure to have you here for them. Jonathan is joining us from fake securities and it's time.


Hi! My friends call me Lyme and I want to help you perform even better in your videos. Now, in the last episode I argued that when communicating a message, stories can be so much more effective than just telling claims or even facts. And regardless of whether you're trying to influence your audience or just entertain them, there are some stories that you might want to have told first and in this video we'll discuss what they are. Story number one, who are you? Imagine that you are listening to a song with a specific message but what you know about the singer completely clashes with the message of that song making you feel like the singer doesn't really mean what they're singing about or even know what they're singing about ruining your experience of that song. Now, what if the story of the singer instead compliments the message? Now, your experience of that song is probably a lot stronger than if you wouldn't have known anything about the singer at all. Now, when it comes to new people in the back of our heads we're always asking ourselves, who are they? And if they don't answer that then we will and then it might not be in their favor. So answer the question and when you do that, keep in mind that stories help people connect with you and help people feel like they know you and people tend to come back to the YouTubers they feel that they have a connection with. What story you tell about yourself completely depends on what ethos that you want.  I mean it wouldn't do the job if I just told you. I will believe me I know what I'm talking about. Another way to communicate who you are is to communicate your values what you stand for your beliefs and the story in my last episode could communicate exactly that that is if I told you the value I never told you the moral of the story. My panic attacks taught me that if you have a heart at all there's some things that you would not wish on even your worst enemy and still I see people deliberately trying to break you.  No heart. People who wish you to burn in hell if you think about what that actually means it's heartless and I have even wished people faced that they didn't really deserve and so in a world where it's so easy to lose ourselves even for just a minute it's so important that we keep empowering heart which is why I'm doing it. Story two what's in it for you so imagine a neighbor that you know knocks on your door like but first you must meet Mr. Nelson said people are talking and this story tells us then you might be asking yourself what is this person doing here what do they want from me now what if they instead told you their situation that they have a big presentation tomorrow that they're very nervous about and they need someone to listen to them before the event now you might be at least a little bit more likely to listen to them because now you know what's in it for them when making videos we sometimes neglect talking about what's in it for us because we're so focused on telling our audience what's in it for them but sometimes your audience doesn't care how much you know until they know how much you care I mean if you don't care then why should they listen right so show them why you care story three what is in it for your audience now imagine a misguided religious group knocks on your door now you know who they are and you know what's in it for them but you still won't listen to them because they haven't convinced you that there's something in it for you and sometimes no story in the world could convince you of that but that you have to feel that there is something in it for you is a given now in the context of YouTube videos where there would obviously be something in it for you would be videos with a list of activities that you could do to grow however what if you instead told a story about someone using that list and succeeding then that story would include that list but also the sense of motivation and hope and so a story has this but also that so stories are multi-dimensional and that is why they're so much more effective now how in the world can people be expected to tell these many stories I mean at this rate you might not be done entertaining until an hour into the video now you don't need to tell any of these stories in fact if you don't want to then you shouldn't because no one wants to listen to something not even you care about telling the point was that these kinds of stories work in your favor and then it's up to you what story you want to tell in what situation if you want to tell any of them I mean I don't think that I ever told you any story about what's in it for me to create this series so I'm actually curious about that why do you think I create this series what do you think it's in it for me tell me that in the comments below with that said thank you so much for watching bye


Hey everyone welcome to the lesson in this video. I want to show you how to trade a long put vertical in tasty works, so we're looking at SPY the S&P 500 ETF and So let's say that your assumption was that you wanted to take a bearish position in SPY You thought in the short term that SPY was going to go down One of the positions you could use to do that would be a long put vertical And so to set that up on tasty works very easy simply go to the trade tab Oh, excuse me up here hit the trade tab and If you're in the table view this will show you all the different option chains now We like to stay in the monthly with Between 30 and 60 days the bold white indicates that these are the monthly options So we choose the one between 30 and 60 days in this case 38 if we open up that option chain It brings up the different strikes and what we can do is go over to the put side And we can simply click on the bid and the ask to set this up and I'll show you one other way as well So when we are buying a put vertical for example We'd like to start with the strikes that are slightly in the money So you can see the ITM right here all these strikes are in the money. So let's just choose one Let's say the 279 and that's the one that we're going to buy. So we just click on the ask Okay, and that populates, you know, it's you know, it's a buy because it's circled outline with green color And then we want to sell one that's lower. So let's go five points wide Which would be the 274 strike and then we'll simply click on the bid which populates the sell order Okay, so it's it's all set up You can see that this is about a 50-50 bet you can see by your probability of profit about a 50 percent 51 percent probability of making profit you can see the probability of making 50 percent of max profit is about 67 percent You can see the delta is negative because this is a bearish trade. We want the stock to go down You can see your theta your max profit at 285 and your max loss at 214 So that's one way to set it up if we clear that off We can also utilize our strategy drop down up here. Now. Remember, this is a long put vertical So we first need to toggle this to long keep that on put and make sure that our drop down goes to vertical Okay, and that actually automatically populates the strikes on to our screen, but those aren't the ones we wanted, right? We wanted the 279 so you can simply click and drag and the 274 so we drag that one up there Either way, it's it's extremely easy Whatever your preference is it doesn't matter So if you're happy with that you can still see the statistics And if that's all you need to know to send the trade in Simply hit review and send and then you can get filled with the broker now. I'm a visual person I'm a visual trader. So I like to go over to the curve tab and Make sure the analysis is highlighted and that will populate your visual graph of the trade So you can see you know exactly what price you'll be profitable and what price you'll be Unprofitable and that'll give you everything you need to kind of see the visual representation Now you still have your statistics down here Those haven't changed and you can view these from both the table mode as well as this analysis mode Now let's say this this looked okay But you wanted to mess around and see what it would look like if you move these strikes around so you could click and drag your Your long put this way you can click and drag your short put this way Give an idea of what your max profit and and max profit and max loss would be you can you can look at that by either You know looking at your flag up here and you can see that changes as you move it around You know, this is where your max at max profit. This is where you're at max loss That's also displayed down below for the max profit and loss But this helps you get a gauge of if you're kind of in between the max profit and loss To see exactly where your break-even points are and everything that you need to know The other thing if you want to use some other Simulation techniques is you can look at the you can look at the date today at the time of this recording. It's 313 2018 but if you move that through time, you can kind of see what happens to the P&L line if you wanted to vary the The volatility the implied volatility just make sure you're going down to the options in which you're trading Which is the one with 38 days to expiration in this case And you can move the volatility up and down and you can see what that does to your P&L over time So there's a lot of great tools a lot of ways to Understand exactly what your trade looks like before you even enter it And so I hope this was helpful in showing you how to trade a long put vertical in tasty works See you at the next lesson