Today I'm with Roshan Daryanani and we're going to talk about how we can shift our perspective so that we can always maintain optimism and Proactivity in our in our life and our work Roshan, it's great to have you here Yeah, it's lovely to be here. Thank you for having me. Yeah, so let me first kind of share your background with people and then we'll get into this topic of You know personal leadership so First I want to just say the way that Roshan and I met was interesting And it's an example of collaboration. I always talk about collaboration so Roshan had Had found me on some podcast interview that I did We can't remember exactly who it was but she's heard me on a podcast somewhere and then Maybe she followed my blog or something afterwards and then eventually She sent she mailed me a physical letter of thanks and I rarely Get physical letters. I mean literally like two or three in a year Don't get me up. I get emails all the time. So letters is really rare So obviously that kind of stood out for me and I reached out to her and thank her for that and then you know we exchanged emails every now and then and Here we are, you know on an interview so Roshan, let me just share that you are a tutor and a writer She by the way, Roshan just wrote a wonderful little book Called the answers are everywhere. Is that right? That's right. Yes. Yeah, the answer and it's one of the most creative books I've bought in a long time. It is it is you should y'all should check it out We'll give you a link in the notes of the video. So she's a tutor and writer She trained as a teacher and she tutors children of all ages in maths and biology Here in the United States to call it math and over there.  Online as well or just in person. I have tutored online as well, but mostly it's in person Okay, but so you can accept. Oh, I do. Yeah, I have done it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah So I'm just continuing with the bio here Roshan enjoys writing about self-improvement and connecting with other people in an increasingly disconnected world her other creative pursuits Which include graphic design and filmmaking also feed into her writing, which is why her book is so creative looking Roshan recently published a book called the answers everywhere It's a collection of resources that answer some of life's big questions such as how to befriend your feelings and how to keep learning So thanks so much for being here Roshan and You I want to just start with how you you say there's there are five words that can change our Level of contentment. So let's start with that. What are those five words? Yeah, so the five words are there is another way And basically there is always another way. That's right. Sorry. There's always another way So, yeah, so I can tell you a bit about how I Develop the idea. Yeah, that's great. Sure. So I have Over the last few years been reading a lot of self-development books as no doubt all those who follow you have been doing as well And I kept coming across this idea again and again, which is that it's your perspective on the situations that matters and not the situations themselves and No doubts You know, we've all heard this But I realized that I wanted some concrete steps to actually apply that to difficult situations So your work for example George has really helped me Realize that there's a different way to be a freelancer or an entrepreneur a way that's more heart-to-heart centered and And at the same time smart, but that doesn't involve sort of constantly thinking about scale and hustling and all that So I'm really grateful for that So Thinking about this you sort of concrete steps that would help me to to view situations differently into That can help us all to shift our perspective on really difficult things and I came up with these four steps and helpfully The first letters of the steps spell out the word lead Which I think is is very relevant because that's what leaders do They have a unique vision on situations and they're just able to see things In a different more constructive light than the rest of us do So that's how I remind myself to keep doing this when I'm in that challenging situation Yeah, and I just before you go on I want to mention that you had written a series of little Public journal entries Some time ago. I'm trying to remember exactly what it was I think it was a series where you were like challenging yourself every day to do something scary. Is that right? That's correct to do something uncomfortable every day for a hundred days Yeah, that was amazing because I didn't catch all of it, but I did catch some parts of it and I was I was just really Inspired by that that you chose to do something uncomfortable What were a few of you remember what a few of those things were? Yeah, they were all little things as well And so it wasn't like huge huge things one of the ones that was really difficult for me was to just do a survey like Survey strangers in front of a mall that one was quite hard But I realized that you know the things we think are really hard. We can actually do them another one was going to a Sort of morning rave. I'd never done that before and it was a super raid But it was it was interesting and it was something I'd never done before so that was interesting Yeah, and I of course I remember one more one more was where you were like taking a cold shower. Oh, yeah Yeah, that's that's a great one. Yeah, I actually inspired me to start looking into them Like and then I have occasionally be taking cold shower Yeah, there's there's a lot of science saying that they're really helpful. Yeah. Yeah, so Anyway, I just wanted to mention that because I feel like you are You are really you're continually challenging yourself and kind of this is where the framework has come out of it So lead le ad let's go and share that with folks Sure. Yeah, so In lead that L stands for link Link up with people that you know and people that you kind of know as well So I think there's this myth in self-developments that we have to do everything by ourselves and you know it's important to be independent and That's not helpful to us in the sense that it makes us feel we have to We shouldn't be asking people for help and I think that limits people a lot I think actually leaders ask people for help all the time and kind of figure out who's the best person for the job and so Think about you know in your own community in your network Maybe when it comes to friends of your friends who could help you with a situation who has more experience in it And reach out to them, you know get to the habit of speaking to them and asking them questions That's actually the trait of a great and humble leader. I think so. That's the L And actually, you know what with each of these you had a you had an example you wanted to share Absolutely, should I go through the example? Sure. Yeah. Yeah. So for me The way that I have applied these steps is when it comes is in the realm of sort of work and money Over the last few years, I've noticed that I'm getting into a scarcity mindset around these two things and I really wanted to shift that So when it comes to linking up with other people Sometimes the person you link up with is the author of a book or some, you know Just someone who helps you see things in a different light. So I came across this article. That's called Thankfully life is full of problems and and it's on a great illustrated blog called more to that Which is lovely little articles on on various different topics and and that article helped me see that actually I don't have to think about money and work as this heavy burden I can start to see it as Something in my life that I can learn through and I can I can actually start to enjoy the process of learning to manage my money And George your work on George for productivity ties and really nicely with this as well So you can learn to enjoy the person a process that you previously thought would be sort of really difficult and so In terms of the actual person I linked up with after reading this article my dad Help me to get in touch with one of his friends who taught me all about investing in index funds Now this is something I previously had very little knowledge knowledge on and so Learning about these index funds let help me realize well what we talked about money in school is really limited And there's so many ways to go about it And I also realized that people really want to help in general. So it's actually Like really kind of you to give them the opportunity to help. So that's a different way of looking at it as well Yeah, and I'm glad you mentioned index funds because I'm a big fan of it. That's where most of my money is And then there's of course these days well Vanguard is the most popular one But these days there's these robo advisors like I use wealth simple. That's one. That's my probably my favorite one Which allows you to easily invest in? Index funds that are filtered for social responsibility Like it's just a matter of few clicks and it's like so easy and yeah, so I'm glad you mentioned it I just want to give that a plug. Yeah Yeah for sure. Yeah, yeah So that's that's the link part of it and The second part is to externalize and and what this refers to is Try to detach yourself slightly from the problem and think if Someone specific who you really care about came to you with this problem. What would you advise them? And it sounds really simple. It's kind of hard to do. So what I try to do is I try to notice What's the advice that I keep giving people in my everyday life? What they're asking me about their own issues and So I mean this from my example is is true for money and for many other things I found that the advice I was giving people was you know be kind to yourself and Celebrate the small wins. I think celebrate the small wins is a huge one And so I had to turn this on myself and think well What little steps have I already taken towards managing money? You know in what ways have I stopped comparing myself to others because that's a huge one for me And am I celebrating my own sort of unique journey through this? So that's externalized sort of try and look at the problem from a different perspective think about what advice You're giving to people because more often than not that's the advice we ourselves need to follow the advice that we're giving other people and Then the next step is to act and take a little tiny action that moves you in the direction that you want to go For me, it's all sorts of small things and I Really enjoy listening to instrumental music when I write or create and that helps me There's an app called focus that will I don't know if you've heard of this George. I have not but I will check it out So it just plays Instrumental music has all these different channels that you can choose from but it's very sort of it minimizes the distraction And that you don't have to keep choosing the song or anything. It just plays music for you In the background, I find it really helpful and it's sort of music that I think has been proven to help you focus Made a difference to me. We'll be checking it out. Yeah, very soon for sure And the other thing that I do I mean sometimes the things that help move you forward are sort of unexpected and can be really simple as I said so In order to motivate myself to write an article what I do is I actually look for a photograph or design a Graphic beforehand because I find that that part really relaxes me and I really enjoy it So if I have the graphic or the photograph all ready to go then I have more reason instead of more of a source of motivation to just get on with the article because the graphic is done and So that's act, you know find a tiny little step whether it's five minutes of work or whatever you can do to just move yourself forward And the last step is decide I think that's the most important one for me So as no doubt, we all know there are many situations in life that are Where it's quite difficult to shift your perspective because you've been thinking about Something in a in the same way for many years. This is where coaches are helpful or you know people who can Look at the situation objectively. I think it really comes down to you deciding to you saying Well, this is hard, but I'm gonna commit to it for however long I need to And keep reminding myself of why I want to manage the situation differently your view it differently and just sort of keep coming back to it because mistakes and You know, you're falling back into your old tendencies. That's all gonna be part of the process But if you decide and you commit to it, then you can keep sort of moving in the direction that you wanted to go in So I think deciding is a huge part of of the process That's great. So link Externalize act decide and I will have the write-up Roshan was kind enough to write this up and I'll put it in the notes of the video as well. So So this is like a framework that you use to you know, when you encounter a life challenge So maybe you could share with us how how this might be applied in it in another setting Let's say let's say somebody was well dealing with Marketing their business and they were having a hard time figuring out what to do So let's let's just play a game and apply this lead idea to to do that. So so link Would be to well Where can you go for advice, right for support that kind of thing? and externalize would be If if a friend came to you to say well, I'm confused about marketing What might you say to them that right? Yeah, that's correct. Yeah, just a couple of things I would add to that absolutely and with the link I would say try to think outside the box a little and go to people who You wouldn't normally think of as marketing experts say for example Marketing is a great one that you brought up because break example that you brought up because everyone to some extent uses marketing in their job So teachers have to sort of market Their lessons to their students. So I'm just as an example. I would say if you're Thinking about marketing your work and you're a little bit tired of the marketing advice that you're seeing maybe go to a teacher Or a salesperson or someone who has a slight different job and think about how do they? How do they address their target audience? Example yeah with the externalize that's kind of a hard one, but I do keep coming back to and What's the advice that you're giving other people or what I guess with the marketing example? It would be in what ways have you been successful? So maybe when have you been able to persuade someone to change their mind or to think differently? What tactics did you apply in a situation where you were successful in sort of someone something? Yeah, and I would say sometimes we We're more effective giving other people advice and we forget Just just like we'll say how can that advice apply to my business? That's right. And so no, I think it's really right like like You know when you go to a Facebook group for example That's related to business and you see other people posting questions to you It's like oh, I have an idea about that I have an opinion and then you might just even look at your own comments and go wait Okay, absolutely. Let me try it and then act let's let's say so act let's talk about that How would how would that person then apply act to their marketing? What does that mean? Yeah? I think the acting comes down to There's two ways to go about it so one is to if you find yourself really stuck and you know, you're having difficulty moving forward with whatever the marketing Process to the business. I would say focus on making it a little easier for yourself and you know, so What could make the what could make it a little more pleasant to you if you really don't like marketing and It's super simple things like music or or you know, planning a little treat for yourself when you've accomplished your next task So that's one way to go about it. But if you know what you need to do and what's actually stopping you is Sort of the fear. That's when I would come back to that doing uncomfortable things and so Challenge yourself to take that one uncomfortable step Whether it's starting a Facebook page that was for me or you know Figuring a video or something make a video absolutely that one thing Yes, just find one thing that's that you find uncomfortable if you can achieve that one thing Then you sort of earn the confidence and the ability to tell yourself Well, I managed that thing which I thought would be really hard. So I can do the next step Yeah, right. Yeah, I'll have to say, you know, so much of marketing still is not I have to you know, it's it's not easy for me either and You know, sometimes people say well George and you're doing this for so long. It's well. No, like every time I write I'm still challenged by it. I'm still not feeling inspired by it every time I make a video By the time my press go live or record I'm just gonna say, oh, I'm just gonna I know kind of what I want to say But I'm not comfortable yet until a few minutes into the video. So no, it is it is a very important step So D decide how do we apply that to this process now? Sure, I'll get that. That's so interesting to hear you say that like having done that for so many years I'm still finding it hard. That's that's great that you said that and Decide. Yeah, well, this is is sort of having the commitment and for this I'll borrow an idea from Alexander Franzen who I know that you yes, he also enjoy it and so she talked about on a little post-it note or Just writing down three reasons why you're doing the work that you're doing So when you're doing your work as an entrepreneur or you're marketing your business go back to why did you start that business? What are you trying to do with it and three simple but it plates? For why you're doing that and whenever you fault her you can always come back to those and say well This is why I made the decision to start this project and this is why I want to move it forward. I love it It's simple, but it's powerful. It's great for us to remember these things. So Roshan if people want to connect with you see your further work I'm gonna be putting the link to the Facebook your new Facebook business page up there It's Facebook comm slash tiny love letters. I love that That's I kind of your brand now because you're your tiny love letters that on Instagram as well So tell us a little bit about that. What was the kind of genesis of this? Sure, so I'm tiny love letters. I'll be sharing. I already have started sharing essays that I write on medium and they're all about Little lessons that I'm learning on my everyday life often lessons that I learn in teaching but also just my personal life and also the the next project I'll be moving on to is sort of connected to the essays is I'll be using some of the essays and gathering them together in a book and About so music of this book uses maths analogies because I'm a math tutor And I'll be using math concepts like equations and vectors to explain some of these lessons that I'm learning in everyday life So I'm quite excited about that That's so cool. Have you heard of a book called emotional equations? Might be interesting. It's by Chip Conley I think is like his name he wrote a book years ago that I really liked called peak It's about applying Abraham the Maslow hierarchy into companies But he wrote in such an inspiring and easy to understand way that I was like Oh, that's a brilliant concept for how to how to run a company and now he and then later he wrote a book on like applying Math equations to emotions and how we work through emotions. So anyway But yes, and I look forward to seeing your your next book and you're the book that you just published is called the answers are everywhere and I'm proud to have been mentioned in the book so and the answers everywhere so cool because you basically kind of look at various large life questions from you know from Sort of purpose to to even money and and work and all that stuff And then you link to a bunch of resources on on each topic that you found really helpful blog articles Podcast episodes, you know things like videos. So it's a really kind of a your your collection of best resources so I really like that and I'll be linking to that as well and Anything else you want to say as we complete this interview? No, that's right them just to talk about that book very briefly and it was So these are resources that I was gathering over the past few years and I felt I wanted to have them one in one place So that when I really needed some help on a particular topic I could go straight to it and find those resources when I need them and Again aside from that, I would just like to say thank you, you know, your work has really inspired me and And I have to say it really stands out in the sea of other marketing advice. I've heard And I'm really inspired by it. So thank you. Thank you. Thank you I'm so grateful to be able to do this. So thank you Rochon for what you do and the I mean, hopefully you all can see why I wanted to interview her. I felt like she was such a Rochon.  So so thank you, thank you so much for your work and I If anyone has any questions or comments put it below and I'll make sure Rochon sees it So thanks for Sean. Thank you. Thank you


This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network a fun opening day of the NCAA men's Tournament is in the books. We got some upsets. We got some good games going down to the wire We got hopefully some lively brackets still cooking Hopefully a good day number one for you today We're talking about some NFL free agency takeaways and kind of recap We've seen from this first week because if you're like me probably weren't paying a ton of attention to that yesterday Given all the college basketball stuff. So we're gonna bring on Ryan Williams pick his brain about biggest moves so far Talk through some of the busier teams headliner teams and get his read on how things have gone so far and free agency in the NFL This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here once again as mentioned by Ryan Williams checking out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan We're just a couple of guys rooting for seven seeds. You know, I'm rooting for Northwestern You've got Mizzou both teams advancing both teams Staving off upsets. I think a lot of people picked in their brackets. So we're still alive, baby. How you doing today? Yeah, we're doing really well, you know first When in the tournament from Missouri since I don't know how long it's in 11 years Been currently I wouldn't skates is doing there has been absolutely incredible. So we love that SEC has been kind of you know representing All year pretty much and they have been in the tournament thus far Tennessee had a little bit of a scare there They were one of my two survivor picks yesterday so I was You know kind of sweating that out late last night, but no, it's fun, man You know when we have things like Arizona happening early and you know other teams that got knocked out that I'm blanking on now But that's the big one that I know was fun And then we just gear up for football season, which you know is pretty much 24 7365 as we talked about been a while since you and I chatted but there is no offseason right now So I'm happy to be back in the in the sidecar with you you get you drive the motorcycle I'll just be in the sidecar Along for the ride and we'll do this together Sidecar if you are a co-navigator if you are like helping me steer the ship Keep things in the right direction. I will take that for sure. Yeah I think that for me with with yesterday I always expect northwestern to be the team doing the what happened to virginia in the firman game Like you know this heartbreaking loss where it's like how did how did this happen? That's such a northwestern thing I mean not in the term and obviously because they're never there but like It just feels like that's kind of the thing But now for you Not only do you get the mizu win, but then you get the prince and upset of arizona And now you're facing prince in the second round. So like mizu Got a legit chance to be playing in the second weekend They they do gem, but it's also very nerve-wracking when people Expect mizuri to win like everybody expected you would not have to say everybody but quote-unquote everybody expected Utah State to be able to upset the tiger and so when they're the underdog I feel like they always come ready to play and when people start getting on the bandwagon Is when we have stuff like norfolk state that happened in 2012 When was it was a two seed and people had them winning their brackets. So, uh, but no definitely, you know, very optimistic um Cautiously optimistic that they'll be able to advance the sweet 16 there Knowing who their opponent is and who it could have been Yeah, well, good luck to you tomorrow. Enjoy the game and I think that should be a whole lot of fun for today We're going to break down free agency takeaways and go talk to ryan about the erin rogers eventual trade We'll talk about uh, his bears get his read on what they've done so far and talk about biggest winners and losers in free agency if you want some Some thoughts on the friday games and the ncda men's tournament We had ben stevens on last week to break down his thoughts on uh, the friday games talk to ben about Where is seeing value in each each region? So find that on the covering the spread podcast feed and Over on the fandal youtube page and make sure subscribe there to get these shows as they go live This march take your first shot at college hoops with fandal sportsbook and get 10 times your first bet amount in bonus bets up to $200 that's right. Just bet 20 bucks in the bracket and you'll land 200 in bonus That's win or lose that's 200 you can spend betting everything from that money line to point spreads that 5 v 12 speed seed matchup You've been eye on an app that is safe secure and super easy to use There's no better place to bet the tournament than fandal sportsbook Sign up today and make every moment more fandal all tournament long must be 21 plus and president select states first online a Real money wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is non with roba bonus bets expired 14 days Restrictions apply c terms at fandal dot com slash sports book fandal is offering online sports wagering in kansas under an agreement With kansas star casino llc gambling problem called 1 800 gambler Where's the fandal dot com slash rg in arizona 1800 next step protects next step to five three three four two In connecticut<PHONE_NUMBER> or is it ccpg dot org slash chat in indiana 1809 with it in kansas and y oming 1805 22 4700 we're in kansas ks gambling help dot com louisiana is 1877 770 stop In a maryland md gambling help dot org in new york 1877 8 hope and wire text open y and in west virginia go to 1800 gambler dot net Let's dig in now to free agency Let's start things off ryan with a move that is not actually official yet Because erin rogers announced in the pat mac if you show that he's been requested to Trade to the jets. It's not finally yet. So we don't know what the official compensation will be but Let's assume the deal gets done ryan Where would the jets sit in the asc hierarchy to you once that goes down? Yeah, I think So some of this is contingent on lemar jackson for me Which is still an ongoing saga that we don't know where he's going to end up a lot of the reports have been that the Ship has sailed in baltimore and that there cannot be any rectification there, but you know I think that some of the deals that have been thrown out there and announced like He's not going to get the sean watson money, but I think he's getting You know gonna be offered the second highest if he stays with baltimore I'm not fully convinced that he doesn't end up there. So granted that that's in play Also with the chargers, you know getting killin more there is very interesting I know austin ecklers demanded a trade So I say all that to say like candy city since an eddie buffalo. Those are still going to be the three top for me Jets are a very wild card, you know, let's think about the tom brady situation when he goes to Tampa like, you know This offense I feel like gets immensely better There is a question mark about the offense of line for me Which we saw just last year with tom brady how that can affect an aging quarterback.  I think they can be in the top five arguably But you know baltimore and the chargers are I think right there aligned with them For, you know as as far as The rosters go and complete putting it together with quarterbacks who you know one who's won an mvp and Two with justin herbert who potentially could have a chance to win mvp with kellen moore being there and allowing him to You know sling this rock Yeah, I have the jets right in the same range you were discussing I think that again I'd agree with you where it's still candy city since an eddie buffalo those are the top three teams for me in the nfl right now not just in The afc in that order kfc since natty kc kfc Wow I'm in nashville right now for the world fantasy basketball championship. So fried chicken is on my minds But I think that that's why went to kfc. Anyway, kansas city Comes to your mind. I feel like there's a nashville hot in there or something. Oh, yeah No, no, you can't go to kfc in nashville like that would be that would be a crime But it just for some reason I had I've had one day here and all of a sudden my mind is consumed by chicken. Anyway Kids city one since natty two Buffalo three in that order and then I think there's like a tear and I'm gonna list off this tear and you say If you would reject anyone from this tear I would say the jets the dolphins the browns the ravens assuming lamar's back and the chargers And the jags honestly, I think they're all in the same tier that's six teams So that's six teams fighting for math. Um, so we got three seven total teams in the So we got six teams effectively fighting for four spots in the afc That's gonna be Wild and I think what that does it introduces a lot of variance in how things will play out and like the jets I've got them as having the 10th toughest schedule right now if we assume rogers is on that team the patrons have the toughest schedule in football if that happens So it's thanks to be them. Um, I I think that to me They're just in that tier and I think that that's a good thing I think they're near the top of that tier as well But like it's still a cluster in the afc And I don't think they've done enough to pull away from that tier is kind of the way I'd interpret it With this rogers news Yeah, I mean, you know, you bring up a good point there because you know, my my amy who's one I'm looking at, you know, long shot futures with uh, the jaylen ramsey signing very interesting are, you know, Basically trade trade for him because yeah, that makes it feel like they are all in on to uh Yeah, it's just like if he was healthy then we get like the first seven weeks of 2002 and we're just lightening people up on the scoreboard and if we have the defense shirt up We're in a good spot that division is One of the most interesting ones to me because of how active the other three teams have been outside of Buffalo Like we obviously have the jet situation The dolphins as we just alluded to and then you got the patriots who are just like Doing what they did two years ago in free agency where it's just like we'll just load up at every other position Um outside of the defense and on offense like a mike gasicki Bomb has just come through like this morning. Uh, james robinston getting added into the mix They were possibly in talks with the andre hopkins or jerry judy and you look seeing these moves and you're like, wait What is going on here? We sound one of their corners, uh, jones, I believe Um, not too recently. So it's like everybody else in that division understands like what buffalo is doing So buffalo definitely has their work cut out from so this is one of those things where we might be talking about the afc East as we were talking about the afc west last year when whistle wilson joined the conversation At least in the off season. I fully agree. I think that it's going to be a talk to vision I think that's why the bills you see here plus 125 to win the afc east That's that's not short But you know, I think that that that makes a lot of sense I do think the dolphins might be a bit too low at plus 370. I think that's kind of intriguing for me But I think that The takeaway for me is the jets. I know that they're like they're afc odds to win the afc They're plus 750 and then it's a big gap down to the chargers at 13 to 1 And the ravens 13 to 1. I don't think that gas should be quite that large I have a big bump up in them for rogers, but um That might be a little bit higher than I wanted to go personally Let's talk to you about your bears ryan because they made some moves here recently They brought in dj more and then A lot of moves defensively In the opening week of free agency. They also Brought in diante foreman. They brought in robert tonion big shot bob is now in town So when you look at the bears What's your outlook for them with where things stand right now? I think at the very least you're looking at it to where you know As people have alluded to I can't coin this term, but the bogeyman is out of the division, right? So things are things are opening up because like out, you know The lines we pretty much know who they are, although it is interesting that they brought in david montgomery To the mix So I thought I knew what the lines plan were and then they made that move and I still don't know what the lines are Necessarily doing but you know, they're they're gonna be able to seem to watch for the favorite right now in the division Which is crazy. I can't remember the last time. I've seen the lions Favored to win the nfc north You know green bay. I guess still kind of an unknown with jordan love But but the pieces that they're kind of losing in the situations that rogers was dealing with last year I don't see that changing so and then the minnesota vikings would occur cousins like I think they're just always going to be Relevant, but you know, we'll see how it's so so they can get dove and cook Possibly out the door with the alexander medicine Resigned for two years and you know couple dealings gone, but bring back harrison smith So I just feel like they're just going to be the same Just filling in pieces. So I think the bears have the most Upset of any team because of what they're doing. I mean poles is basically just said, you know, we had a top three cap situation available to us Also with the number one pick like we're just going to make moves ad nauseam And really get this team short up which you know talk is one thing I feel like they said that coming into last year And then they really are you know are backing that up with what they're doing I think tj edwards if he can stay healthy This guy's a stud germane edmunds. We know enough about him You got two linebackers and then uh demarcus walker as well on the d line To go along with a secondary that's pretty young But has shown themselves to you know be talented And probably the best unit of this core and then like you got your quarterback that you're investing in you bring him You know a number one ride receiver now all of a sudden that white receiver room looks somewhat legit when you know Mooney's your two three two three Tanya in there with a veteran Speak to go along with cold come at and you still have a top 10 pick in the draft that you can choose to either You know trade back again and pack a jump for some things or really cheer up You know the offensive line so Was disappointed that uh, they missed out on um, um, mcglinti with the broncos kind of swooping him in But the um, the tennessee titans guy that they got. Oh my god, snake jones. I believe Um that you know makes you feel solid that they're actually you know trying to show up that line So I think all things considered like they really should be favored. I say all that to say they should be Um favored more than they are right now, which is currently on the fandom sports book three to one Like I I much rather like the upside of what's going on here Then what the vikings are doing and I just think this is going to be a team where Or this is going to be a division where the teams kind of just beat up on each other Um, and then the may the best man win So the nfc north sweat open they get into the playoffs That's all you kind of hope for anything can happen When you get into the playoffs the nfc is very an interesting picture and i'm excited for it Interesting. Yeah, it's interesting. It's it's it's bananas. Um, you may have as weird as like the nfc north is You might have two of the best five quarterbacks in the nfc in that division And like Honestly, you could make a case for three of the top six. Um, if you want to put kirk in there too So like, you know, it's it's pretty interesting. Uh, so I don't know. I think it's uh, there's There's potential for stuff to get weird. I've still got the bears a bit lower personally than the packers even with love in large part because I still like the packers defense a decent amount but Honestly, like it's all about the lions for me. I I still think that plus 145 might be a value there I know I don't want to get too high in the lions. This happened before but I think they're a really good team. So we'll see how things play out there But I think the bears have made themselves like viable They've made themselves competitive and in the nfc that can be enough for sure Let's move out to the asc west and talk about the broncos and the raiders. Uh, broncos really bolstering their offensive line Um, they've made some moves to like replace guys who had left in for agency on defense as well the raiders bringing in jimmy garoppolo training by darin waller for a Third round pick but replacing him kind of which cubby meyers as well. We look at those two teams I think that like We can't ask okay, are they competitive in the asc west because they're not I mean, it's the chief I'm not going to have this discussion about like can they compute the chiefs? They can't let's not let's not do that but Are they competitive for anc wild card spot because as we discussed That like second tier in the asc is nuts. Can they be in that tier or are they still a decent chunk below that for you? The raiders are for for me. Um, I I just you know, I don't believe that garoppolo and meyers are equivalent to what car and waller Um are that that's just me personally. Um, but you know, it's a great situation You know, we always talk about the athletes who are teaming up and just bringing their friends along like rob There's been all these demands to get lasard cob and Mercedes Lewis The you know grave of Mercedes Lewis to come along to new york with them But it's like, you know, are we talking about these coaches who just bring back the pieces that they're comfortable like I'm looking at the a of like the patriots practice squad when josh mcdaniels was there and like we were You know, pre-season football with garoppolo. So when it's as you go be my like, what are we doing here? Um, you know, and jacobi meyers has been you know, a legit player I think that, you know, it's it's it's cool to see him get his do I guess so to speak. Um I'm not gonna put this in like a christian kirk roam We're like all of a sudden like we see something crazy from jacobi meyers because garoppolo is throwing him the ball I think that's you know, and the way he's stuck down I feel like for davante adams, which we can get into for another day because Garoppolo is not throwing him deep balls like, uh, rogers and car used to so yeah, I just I don't even consider the raiders when i'm thinking about them. Now the broncos is interesting because of what Sean paton is going to bring I think that's really the key there Like this is not a guy who's going to come in and mess around with things like he's coming back to coach for a reason Um, I think it is interesting that he chose to go with the russell Wilson situation there And it is, you know, very interesting to me that like judy's on the trading block and um, or potentially I know in the moves that we can potentially see from this team on the defensive side So I do think regime is a big factor to it and I think coach, you know, coaching does Matter in nfl So I do kind of give them a little bit of the bump there To kind of compete with the rest of the teams that you kind of mentioned. They're probably just outside of the wrong to me honestly Based on how things go in the off season like I might even put them in the same tier as the browns Um, just because of how Watson looked last year like I'm not convinced that like this is the this is the dude that should be having the most astronomical Contract in the history of football like what are we doing here? Um, but you know, I digress. Um, yeah, I think there I think I understand where you're coming from that these two teams kind of seem like they're on the outside looking in But I would put the raiders a lot far back Then I would the Broncos the Broncos are probably like in the two b3a tier for me in the a of c at the currently stands right now And and that's that's why I think we're we're dealing with in the west I think we got a two man race at the top with the teams and the chargers Yeah, I think that I'd agree with you where the raiders right now. They are 22nd in my power rankings So they're still not there. There were they're actually funny enough. You were talking about new england They're basically tied with new england. Um, who is one spot ahead of them. Yeah, Denver is up in 17th Uh, which are the asc is not super high, but like, you know, it's it's competitive at least and I think there's room for upside there If they were to trade away jerry judy, I would have them a decent amount lower because a lot of it's based on Russell wilson with infrastructure around him including the head coach including the offensive line That would downgrade them. Actually Pittsburgh isn't that tier two kind of weirdly Um, they haven't done a made a ton of noise that saw season But like their defense last year when tj wad mink if it's patrick was healthy were healthy was bananas good So I think pittsburgh is actually that's too. I think that pittsburgh and denver are the two teams Who I think could nudge their way into that second tier we were discussing if things were to break in their favor I think that's kind of the the two upside teams. I've got an eye on right there Okay, let's talk about the biggest gainers in free agency when you look at Your expectations for teams prefer agency versus your expectations for teams now Which teams have shifted most for you right in a positive sense in that time including ones potentially you've already discussed Yeah, I mean the the bears are Going to be up there for me. I I do want to say There's two teams actually in the nfc who are kind of intriguing It's one with the saints because I think that the saints are just the best team in that division now Um, you know five to one odds with the luck in years on baker mayfield. This is gonna very interesting for me They kind of um, you know follow along with but I do think that defense really regressed Um from from who they were, you know a couple years back So um that kind of worries me in general with that But if they catch lightning in the bottle with baker what he was showing the rims Towards the end of last season that it can be intriguing But I do think yeah the saints being the favorite there in the division Like you have a quarterback to kind of put you over the hump like cars good enough to kind of get them there So I think that's fun to talk about and then the new york giants man Like, you know, I was sitting here probably with you at this time If not later on right after the draft like not really buying into daniel jones Not really sure what brian dable is going to be able to bring from you know I guess often to mind but still had question marks on the defense side of the ball and then, you know They find themselves, you know kind of making some noise Towards the end of the last season and so now you're talking about bringing in the likes of like a darin waller and like You know, they're replacing kenny golliday with paris cambell. It looks like And you know if they can make some other moves on the defensive side of the ball With the sure-up of jones and sey kwan like you got to consider the giants as contenders like yeah philly's gonna be the cream of the crop right but like dalas gotten worse The commanders are not anywhere close to being I think in the conversation at this point yet So, you know the the giants deserve some love like the nfc is pretty much going to be You know wide open outside of the 49ers and the eagles Um, I and we don't even know like what the 49ers what they really look like They're the odds on favorite right now to win the nfc. Who's quarterbacking this team like lances Maybe healthy, but like has not played significant uh a significant season We know party's not going to be back for the beginning of the season at all and jimmy g's gone now so That really you know puts a lot of question marks for me I mean the eagles, you know Four to one to to win that like they should be the the reigning favorite there, but like the cowboys have regressed The lions 11 to 1 I guess The rams I want nothing to do with at this point in time And you know then you then you got the giants I mean and even like when you're looking at the the packers are still Some whether the mix I think just because of the erin rogers unknown But like 15 to 1 to them kind of seems outrageous Um with what we know so yeah, I think that you know The new york giants can find themselves in the spot to be kind of in the mix towards the end of the year And that's what you can ask for I think I think they're probably a top five team in the nfc east Or in the nfc. Excuse me as it says right now Yeah, and I think I agree with you. We're like we're still not super convinced on daniel jones, but We saw what he did last year. He was efficient. He was decently efficient He wasn't super but he was decently efficient and that was in a In offense that has less talent than he has right now. I know that like it's not Huge huge upgrades with waller coming in and with paris camel coming in but like I mean compared to what he was throwing to before it actually is a decent little move um, so I think that they're at least interesting and if you can't have A top tier quarterback in the nfc You might as well have a good infrastructure to make a quarterback efficient Even if the quarterbacks not to do do themselves. I think they do have that I think they've proven that for sure the saints I agree with you where They are very interesting It's deserved where they are right now Just because it's hard to have a lot of faith in anybody else in that division I'm a bit worried about their defense all the guys. I've lost there, but I still think that they They've got some things in their favor in large part due to schedule More so than anything else, but still think that they're worth monitoring for sure What about the opposite side here ryan any teams that have lost a lot of firepower that have you concerned right now? Yeah, I'm going to talk about the the dallas cowboys Um, they could you know, maybe do something in the draft to make me feel a little bit more confident in but like What have we done to really? Get dak help. Um, you know Uh, so Stephon gilmore, right the the signing that happened within the offseason. Okay, so the defense is getting a little bit better A little bit better. Um, I am not convinced that kellen moore was the issue with the cowboys when we're talking about You know what mic mccarth roll and all of this is um, you got him, you know with very interesting quotes In this offseason talking about you know the the path to success and kellen moore was throwing the ball 40 times A game which is it's not true On its face, uh, and you know, I guess they're gonna go back to establishing the run Without zeke, uh, and just don't you know gift only follow what the 300 touches Or 300 carries I should say um a game. I don't think that's the solve. So this has like them drafting Bajon robinson out of alabama written all over it for me But uh, you know, they they are they are one that I just don't know what they're doing Especially with what philly, um has proven that they've been able to do over the years Like I think they take a step back and then we have to talk about What the heck is going on with the tennessee titans absolutely nowhere near do they deserve to be um Second favorites when the anti south at this point like I I really just want to put money on the indianapolis cults Like I feel better with their situation not even knowing who their starting quarterback is going to be than what the titans are doing Like they they could be without Like what is their offense going to look like with with ryan tana hill who is pretty much on his way out They have no faith in maliguelas as they showed last year. Like I don't think that he's the answer Uh, dare can restore crest of the trade you signed robert woods last year in the off season He's already gone now treylon berks. You invested the top pick in who's throwing him the rock The offense align has completely shifted the defense is not great and was not great last year So many holes and question marks like I just don't know how I can potentially buy into this team Like I really want as soon as things are available I want to be able to look at the vandal sportsbook and say can this team like It's tough with the carolina situation But even with the carolina situation They're gonna get the number one quarterback like I want to have them finish in last place in the nfo Because that's just how that's just how much things have changed on the face And I don't think it's at least caught up on the sports book Maybe even with you know In the casual nfl fan too. Like I think there's the oh, yeah, like the titans like they're good Everybody's gonna be waiting for that shoe to drop with derek henry, but like he he's Probably 50 50 not coming back to this team. And so without that like it's just They're going to be in kind of a perpetuity there that you know Kind of puts them in the same category with the colts and the texans for me And then it's just a matter of like how good Do the texans and colts get just immediately with you know, two of the top three picks in the draft So, um, that's kind of how I feel about The tennessee titans this today Yeah, I think that I think they're closer to the the titans or the the texans and the colts here than they are The jags the jags are gonna tear their own in this conference if you had to guess uh where the titans are my power rankings Where would you Approximate them as being right now So i'm gonna say that you likely have them To Uh Do you have them as maybe like the fourth worst team in the league? So i've got them 23rd, um, which is a little higher than that But like if we're a team that almost made the playoffs last year, that's that's pretty low I agree with you. Um, because last year What happened with their defense was They had like very good rush defense and they were great on late downs But they've lost some of the guys who made their their rush defense good like david long and now You kind of expect some regression in the flukeier parts of what they did So you take away the one thing they did really well last year you take away some Key uh some key guys on offense I don't know if they had key guys to lose but you know, like they've lost some firepower I think that they're they're kind of in danger of of Like you said falling out of the second place in the the afc south. Um I can't quite get to them to finish last. I think that's arizona right now with the kyler uncertainty around when he'll be healthy I think arizona is the worst human football right now. Which is kind of weird. Um, but like I think that they're that there's A lot of intriguing stuff at play with the titans and it doesn't seem like they're a team that's trying super actively to compete in 2023 but It's hard to get a firm read on them. So i'm on board with you You know, I talked about them on tuesdays being a team that I thought it lost quite a bit I was a little bit concerned about them and nothing that's happened since then has changed of my mind So i'm on board with you there Let's take a look at the futures board now ryan when you look at the uh futures right now that we have not discussed Any standout to you based on what we've seen in the first couple of days of free agency Yeah, I mean I was talking about the three to one, uh with the bears, uh, which I which I do like, um, you know, looking at uh Some of the coach of the year candidate type of things, you know To artist CRP Um come into the mix, um, you know, Peyton, obviously I think Very escalated up there with the 12 to 1 second favorite. Of course, dan Campbell is is up there The bingles could be interesting with uh, zack taylor. He's he's uh 25 to 1 If the bingles can make some splashes, I like that also with mike mcdaniel 20 to 1 I think that could be a little bit interesting if he's able to, you know, get the dolphins in a significant Space there considering the division. Um I do like You know Five to one on the bangles for the afc I mean, they've showed that they'd been able to compete with the chiefs and the bills Um for a long time that could probably that's probably going to change not right Um with the rogers decision like I feel like the jets will get steamed up Um, potentially, you know, the chargers won't get there the ravens won't even get there with lamar But you know the fourth favorite in the afc. I'm willing to take a chance on Cincinnati yet again Which could go probably to the 7 to 1 range Love that. Um division winners. I think are are very interesting. It's it's really weird to see the jaguars at Minus 145 in the south, but that's the state of the south I think that the eagles at plus 105 like why why not take plus money on a team? Who is the favorite like in the nfc or second favorite in the nfc? I keep forgetting about san francisco's number, but um, I think I think they're interesting. We talked about the saints It's interesting I can't do division with the chargers Yeah, I agree being there, but they're they're gonna be somebody I keep my eye on the jets wind total The jets to make the playoffs minus 162 gross not touching that Just one total at nine nine and a half like I'm willing to go alternate line 10 when it gets released it's minus 142 at nine and a half like rogers It's like double digits in his career like at nauseam when you look at You know what he's been able to do obviously that's with the packers and this is a new regime, but You know we have seen quarterback switch teams and have success And I think like that's really what you're thinking of with this team It's like they you know We're pretty much a playoff team with the likes of mike white and zack wilson and joe flacco Like playing quarterback. We'll let at this position rogers has got to be good enough for you know, at least You know the two wins there That are probably a little bit of the difference. So I like looking at them tend to tend to one And Yeah, that's pretty much where I'm at right now with the state of the fairs As we look at it. I think When we're talking about long shots Um When we're talking about long shots if you want to Scroll down and get dicey, you know, and so we're looking at It's it's tough but chargers, you know, we want uh to one to win the super bowl. I think there's some merit to NFC gets gets really fun I got the bear set a future number that is not the 50 to 1 as it currently stands. So I'm definitely going to be Holding out hope on that one But I think you know if you want to try and take a chance on some of these teams on the NF In the NFC who you think will make the playoffs. I think that's kind of what you want These are going to be some of the best prices that you see So, you know, like a team, you know, even a team like Seattle I mean if you want to get kind of You know play around with some of these numbers like 60 to 1 that's pretty nice. Um, if you believe in gino Uh, I probably will get a little bit crazy with the Miami Dolphins here because that division is just so fun to me And I you know, I really am rooting for Tua Um, so yeah, this is this is kind of the the best time right of the year to kind of really get Some of your long shot bets in um and play with the market before things kind of Uh, kind of show their face once we get into the draft and the individual agency and the schedule release and all that good stuff Yeah, I think the dolphins 28 to 1 to win Super Bowl like that's a number to have my eye on just because again I think they're in that second tier of the ASC and I think that They're positioning in relation to the jets is interesting 28 to 1 for the dolphins 15 to 1 for the jets. I think that gap should be a bit smaller personally Um, it's just really hard to bet against the cheese ever. So that's that's the issue. I wound up running into there Alrighty, that is all that we have here for today Talking NFL for agency next week. We'll be back. We'll talk in some nb and hl on monday Got some nc double a tournament talk coming at you on tuesday and wednesday and a whole lot of good stuff All in this same feed So make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Also, check us out over on the fandal youtube page and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Ryan, I want to thank you once again for joining us. Uh, pleasure to have you back on the show Once again for today. Good luck to mizu tomorrow. Good luck to you with your bracket as well. We'll talk to you again soon Yeah, great to be back with you jim. I appreciate it. Um, thanks to everybody for following along and uh, yeah Go tigers, baby Alrighty, you can find a ryan on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w i'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you Across this weekends. We'll talk to you once again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network


And another BSU Men's Hockey News, the Beethers have signed forward Ethan Somoza and Brendan Harris during the early signing period. Harris currently plays for the Wenatchee Wild in the British Columbia Hockey League. In 19 games, Harris has 9 goals and 32 assists, leading in the league with 41 points. Somoza currently plays for the Bloomington Thunder of the USHL. In 13 games, Somoza has 3 goals and 5 assists. If you've enjoyed this segment of Lakeland News, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution to Lakeland Public Television.


This presentation is slightly different, or you could say very different. One difference is it's not based on a paper, rather it's reflections about some specific challenges we will face in taking research on aid effectiveness forward, and I'm particularly interested in taking it forward through country studies to try and give greater understanding of how aid has worked or operated in particular countries. So I view that as a compliment to the kind of cross country studies. The basic principle I'm going to have here is that if you want to do aid effectiveness studies, there's two fundamental pieces of data you need. You need a measure of GDP or GNI or whatever you want to call it, you need a measure of national income, and you need a measure of aid. So what I'm focusing on here is, well, we know both of these are measured with error. So the data we have available is, it's subject to measurement error, and the issue I'm concerned about is, in particular, for GDP, you have different sources of data that all purport to be measuring GDP in the same country over the same period of time. Are they the same? Do they tell you the same story? And I'll illustrate that one. And then secondly, then going on to the aid side, there's a particular concerns about measuring aid, and especially because most of the data we have and all of the data that's used for the cross country analysis is the donor data. It's what the donors say. They've allocated or dispersed. And of course, there's a difference between what they say they've committed and what they disperse. But that's not the same as what the recipient countries receive. And one of the main limitations in current data is that we have very poor data on what the recipients receive. And I'll talk about that. I just want to emphasize that maybe to the audience here it goes without saying, but I just want to emphasize I think aid effectiveness is an important issue. It's important as a research question, pure intellectual curiosity. It's an interesting topic. It's politically an important topic in donor and recipient countries. And of course, the research can have significant policy implications. It can encourage changes in the design of aid instruments or the delivery of aid, or it can be used selectively to support particular changes. So it is an important issue, so we should work on it. Now I'm going to, one could characterize a lot of the cross-country regression work as asking, does aid work? Usually defining that question in a very precise way about is a particular coefficient positive and significant. That's informative and it's troublesome as Sam and Henrik in different ways have over viewed. But often it doesn't tell you very much about how aid works. And I choose this phrase how aid works because in English it's quite a nuanced phrase. On the one hand it can mean that you're going to assess the mechanisms of the way in which aid has effects, whether they're good or bad. And that would be one interpretation of how aid works. You're going to talk about the how. Some of the things will be good and some of the things will be bad. And in that way the inflection or the emphasis is on how. But you can also put the emphasis or the inflection on works. So that how aid works is actually an introduction to a narrative of how it's been effective. I make that point because, you know, fundamental to that there are, people do come often with ideological preconceptions and that can affect the language they use and the way in which they interpret phrases. And I just want to be upfront about that. And my interpretation is the first one. It's an assessment of the mechanisms. They may be good, they may be bad. And I think to get a lot of understanding of that requires case analysis and in my case I mean country studies. Now country studies are not a panacea. They don't give you a simple solution. The obvious problem is it's very difficult to generalize from country studies. I don't find that a problem. I would actually personally be far more interested in actually gaining some understanding of the way in which aid has had effects in Tanzania or Ghana than getting an average coefficient across a whole range of countries. So I think it's useful. One way of addressing the generalizability issue is, well, you can take a common methodology and apply that to a range of countries. And a very good example of that which I'll come back to is the paper by Giselia Smaller and Tarp in the Oxford Bulletin where they use the co-integrated VAR methodology to address the question of what's the effectiveness of aid in sub-Saharan African countries. So they apply the same methodology to 36 countries and reach inferences. Now I quite like the co-integrated VAR methodology for time series analysis. Katrina Giselia describes it very nicely as letting the data speak for itself. And the methodology that they've developed, which Henrik has contributed, tells you how to frame and answer the question. So how to ask the question of the data. But you need something more to interpret the answer. You should have some theory to guide you into how you interpret the answers. And fundamentally, you need a narrative. It's not the econometric analysis itself that is really important in a country study. It's how it quantifies and supports the story, the narrative of what was going on. But there's another aspect to see VAR analysis which is what I'll focus on is, yes, it's a good idea to let the data speak for itself, but you should also take in mind, are you asking the right data? Because if there are different sources of data, it's worth considering would they give you a different answer. And that's one issue. And then in the aid context, the issue I'll talk about towards the end is when, or under what circumstances, might we be more interested in getting recipient data. So data from the recipient's perspective of what they've received in aid. And the fundamental issue here is that what they, in so far as one can measure it, it's quite clear that what they receive is not the same as what the donors allocate. One caveat I should attach for any earlier career researchers here with publication and progression ambitions don't start off with country case studies. Because they won't help your career. It's only people who've reached a stage where they don't have to care so much about journal publications that they can then think, right now I actually want to learn something about what really happens. And they can afford to do the country studies. Economics journals in particular don't seem to lighten them very much. Now, so the Sub-Saharan Africa, this is kind of reiterating. I'll acknowledge, yes, there is this debate by Morton German and others on the reliability of African GDP data. I acknowledge that. And, but my view is yes, that's true, but I'm not going to, I'm not, I don't agree of going as far as to say this data is worthless. It tells you nothing. I think the data, the data has information. It's what's measured. It will have influenced policy decisions. If they're using that data, that data has influenced decisions that they're making, it influences analysis. So that's the data we have. It's, it may be, it does have measurement error. So we need to be recognized that and address it. And then when you're looking at the aid aspect, you need to go a bit further and say, okay, what's the aid that the recipient has received? So let's consider the GDP data. And I'll start here with Togo. So I'm just going to pick a couple of countries to illustrate. And what we've done here is from 1965 to, I think it's about 2007, the different lines are Pen World Tables 6, Pen World Tables 7, Pen World Tables 8, and World Development Indicators. And all of them are GDP series, calculated on an internationally comparative basis. Now the first thing that's pretty obvious is, well, they're not the same. And I picked Togo because it's one illustration of a case where not only are there level differences, which you can often explain by the way in which a change is in how it's constructed. But there are also some trend differences, not major ones. But, you know, so you might have a suspicion, I want to say that you're using that whichever of these series you use in your analysis, it may affect the inference. Here's Uganda, I'll put that here because I'll come back to it later. Here you actually might be more confident. You see, there's not that much difference between them. Pen World Table 6 for some reason seems to give a higher measure than all of the others, but aside from that wedge, the series look pretty much the same. And here's Tanzania. We've redone these because of the availability of the World Development Indicators. This one's indexed at 100 at the end so that you're comparing them similarly. And again for Tanzania, certainly since the mid-1980s, the series have been quite similar. But once you go back earlier, there are differences. So then this begs the question, OK, do these differences matter? Oh, and just to add, investment GDP is another important variable that you can derive from these. This has been in, again, whichever series you use, it makes a difference. They're not the same. They move more or less the same, but again, Pen World Table 6 seems to think it was a lot lower than the others. So does this affect your inference? Well, this is illustrating. This is an exercise that a PhD student of mine has done, Lionel Roger. And what it does here is it takes the Giselius, Muller and Tarp paper, their sample, which they estimated using Pen World Table 6, applies for the exact same sample. In other words, insofar as possible, the same countries for the same years, applying the same methodology, same like lens, everything else. So the methodology is not the specification. The methodology is the same. The sample is the same. The only thing that changes is the measure of GDP. So when he does it with Pen World Table 6, he gets there are some small differences, but he gets the same inferences that for 26 of the countries, you can conclude that aid has been effective. And there's 10 countries where maybe it hasn't, or it's been maybe even damaging, but certainly not effective. The only point I want to make here is that as you move through the series, the results start to change a bit more. There's a fair difference when you move to Pen World Table 7. The differences in Pen World Table 8, the number of countries for effectiveness has fallen, but the number of countries for harmfulness has fallen as well. The WDI is the most different, but the sample is a lot smaller. It's more difficult. You can't get the WDI. It doesn't have the same length of data for all of the countries. So the bottom line of this is that the source of data can matter for inference. In about 2 thirds of the cases, so let's say in about 20 of the countries, it doesn't have an effect. The inferences are the same for those countries for all four data sets. So in about 2 thirds of the cases, it's the same. But there are a set of countries up to 10 where it does seem to matter. And it seems to matter quite a lot that you change, only change the source of the GDP, and your inference changes. The next stage in our work is to try and work out, well, what is it about these countries that makes them different? One type of thing, as you might expect, is they're often smaller countries that have had more volatility. They've had periods of conflict or periods of instability. And that would lead you to believe, well, yes, actually, it's quite sensible that they may have been periods where the data is less, where the measurement error in the data is greater. So we want to pursue that. But I will emphasize that in 2 thirds of the cases, the inference doesn't change. So now if you're going on to country studies, you get an even extra problem. Because now, first of all, you can bring national GDP statistics to the table. And the reason you might want to do that is because a lot of the other variables you may be interested in are going to be collected in national currency at current or constant prices or whatever, like tax data or public expenditure. So you bring that in. And then you have to ask questions about, OK, well, how do we measure the aid? Should speed up a little. This is just taking an illustration, data compiled by Thomas Poirier for Uganda. And again, the red line is World Development Indicators. And the dotted blue line is Uganda Bureau of Statistics. Up until about the mid-1970s, they're almost identical. And from about the late 1980s, they're pretty much the same. But there's a big difference in the 1980s. Now, of course, that's not surprising, because the 1980s, period from 1980 through to 87, was conflict. So you can explain why there are differences. You might have a suspicion that what the national statistics or what the Uganda Bureau of Statistics was doing was just a smoothing estimate. They had data from the late 1970s, so they were just smoothing it and adding an incremental increase each year. That would be consistent with what you see, whereas maybe the World Bank had better data or made different judgments. But I just want to emphasize that if you're interested in that period, it matters which set of data you use. And if you wanted to draw an inference say about the effects of the conflict on Uganda's growth performance, it would really matter which data set you looked at. This is, again, just giving the same story, looking at GDP per capita. And the next one is just to make one other point. Of course, even though there are periods when these series do look very similar, when you calculate the growth rates, and of course, the first difference is what you will have in the analysis, then there are quite different series, even where they look quite similar. Now kind of quickly to say, OK, how about the data, the aid data? So what I'm doing here is comparing three series. This is compiled by another PhD student, Amelia Timmis. And the green line is World Development Indicators. The red line is the DAC data. And the blue line is using Tanzanian data, compiled by Josephette Quaker. They're different. Now they should be different because they are, in particular, the Tanzanian data is measuring something different. It's measuring what the government records as it having received in the budget. But if, as I am, you're interested in the effect of aid on the behavior of the government, in particular on taxation and on public expenditure, that's the measure you want. You want to know what did the government think it was receiving because that's what will have influenced its fiscal behavior, not what the donor said they were giving. And they're different. This is illustrating it for Ethiopia. Again, they're different. That's just what I wanted to emphasize. The DAC and Ethiopian data are actually quite similar here. And it's the World Development Indicators that's the most variable from these. So it's just to make the point, the data matter. The data differ if you've got different sources or different ways of measuring it. And if you're doing country studies, I think if you're doing cross country studies, you should also be aware of this. But if you're doing country studies, you have to face this and address it. And it's a challenge. I'm not saying I've got the answers. That's what we're still working on. But I do want to emphasize the challenge because we have to recognize measurement error. We have to recognize alternative definitions and work out which is the definition and measure that matters, theoretically or for the narrative, for the effect you want to analyze. The inferences about the effects may depend on which source of data you use. So that should be taken into account and considered. And ultimately, if you want to understand how aid has worked or the effects it's had in a particular country, you need to begin analysis that looks at the issue from the perspective of that country. What did they receive? How did they perceive or record the aid they were getting? And indeed, how did they perceive and react to the conditions policy advice that was associated with this aid? Because it may not be the nominal monetary value of the aid that matters. It may be the associated conditions and reforms. But you need country analysis to understand that. Thank you.


Welcome folks, this is Tom O'Brien of TFNN. We have five days a week, we go seven hours a day, we go 24 hours a day on the internet at tfnn.com. Always remember folks, whatever you think about, you bring about whatever. You focus on growth, hope everyone's having a great day, safe day, it's making a great night folks. You are responsible for your own happiness. Happiness never comes from outside of you. You put your happiness into someone else's hands, they can take it away. Happiness can only come from inside of you and it is the result of your love. My good boys, let's take a look at it out here. We have the Dow Industrial's down 549, Nasdaq off 185, S&P's down 65. Gold contract down $32 trading at 18.21 an ounce. We have silver down 92 cents, 20 dollars 65 cents an ounce, light sweet crude $106.33 a barrel, notes and bonds. The 10-year note, up 21.6 trading $119.30, 30 up a full point, plus six ticks at 140, 26 and $king dollar. $king dollar's taken off folks, this is wild man. $king dollar's up 984.6, 104, 830. Euro is out here at a price point of 103. Yen is out here at 128, British pounds at 121 to one US dollar. Our phone number's<PHONE_NUMBER>. Give us a call, folks. One note's going on in your world and the world of the S&P's, let's take a look at them, what do you have? Well, bottom line, you get a market that people keep buying and let me just show you this. Here, I just started off this with, I'm gonna start this off with the arms so I can just show you something that we never should have right now. So this is the arms index, folks. See this, when you're looking at this, you get a 0.74 and yesterday was a 1.10. What that's telling you, when you get to a bottom, folks, right? What happens is that normally, see, 2.13, what you need for a bottom is this. Inside of these five days, you need something that's running 10 to 12 if you add them up.  What has happened here is this, even though we have come down so dramatically, people are buying, man, that's what this means. When you have a 1.04, so check this out, a 1.04 and a 1.10 means that the same amount, all stocks inside the NYSE, we're getting an equal buy. A 0.74 means that everyone is going after the Microsofts of the world again, okay? That's not what bottoms come down to. Sad, this is insane, but that's how it shakes out. We go over to the spy, we take a look at the spy out here. You got, you know, we came down with volumists today, a 386, you bring this up, we're gonna put these on, you wanna put all of these on weeklies now because what we don't have, folks, and we didn't have, you don't have any support, man.  You know, you're coming into a little bit of support right at this point, and that's bringing you back to, what is that, March of 2021. But what you have there, when you match up this side versus the other side, this is telling me that this thing's coming all the way back down here, which is that's 358, that would make sense because a 1 to 1.382 is 366. So this thing is relentless.  This was a pretty clear case inside the NDX 100 that, you know, 281 is your A to B equals the C to D. And, you know, if you have time in the trade, you know that ABC structures, the A to B, and the C to D, I mean, the A to B, yeah, the C to D are straight line moves. And you can see, I'll put this on the weekly so you can see, you know, where this is, okay? I mean, it was pretty clear. You go right from the high, here's your ABC down, man.  And that baby lines up and it looks like we're gonna get it, that 289, the 281 now. And the problem is though, the bottom right here is at 260. So the highs of the next consolidation are 290, but because we already broke into 290, what happens is that you're gonna go to the bottom of it. Now the real kicker is, is it gonna hold? And if it doesn't hold, guess what? You're going to pre-pandemic 257, 217, no, 237, which is pretty intense. Gold, gold, ABC structure down, you know? And what you, so pitch it. This whole thing started because Stocks were overvalued. You know, we've talked about, my take is that it's a reset of all assets that's happening. Now, with the dollar breaking out top side, this is a whole different ball game now. Because now what you have is that there's gonna be so many dislocations in the market because the dollar has got so strong. And that's gonna put selling pressure on everything. I mean everything. So we take a look at gold contract, you get 200 and, yeah, 221,000 contracts today that's big contract volume. The A to B, CD is 1788 and I expect we're gonna get it. And this is getting dicey, man. And we go over to the good old dollar and you see the dollar, this is a clear break. Now, it doesn't mean that you can't have a failure but what I've found is this, and you know, we've been talking about this. That the longer that you stay at highs, the longer you stay at lows. It works the same way, folks, okay? The higher the probability is that you are gonna break the top side if you stay at highs. And at lows, you're gonna break lower. Well, this is pretty clear. I mean, you can see what happened here. You get the wide price spread. We don't have volume on the dollar or any type of currencies whatsoever. So it's a little bit tougher. For me, it's a little bit tougher because I'm so hooked with volume and price. So if we take a look at where we are, we just broke and you're talking about a major break, man. I mean, there's nothing. So when we take a look at this dollar, what you're gonna see in the ironic part, of course, is I started the gold report right when the dollar was 120 to 121. And this is 22 years later. And guess what? The dollar's going back to visit its old friends. You can see the break here. And because we came down so fast on the dollar, that as you go up, that's what ends up happening. You know, and then if we measure this consolidation, at the top, it's 103. The bottom of it is 88, okay? So you take 15 points, you add it to 103. Bingo, you got 118, man. 121's the high, we're going to the high. Stay right there folks, come right back.


Hey guys, Tyler Pattener here. Sorry Tyler Pattener here and look if you're anything like me you are tired of this COVID stuff Not making light of the situation, but it's just the constant news cycle is draining And we need some airgun therapy to help us out of it Take part in the challenge head on over to pyramidair.com slash soc right now


I said the beginning of the last one that everybody's sort of like in the same general area now Yeah, that area is a snake now a snake's stomach. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to the channel My name is Jackson Busser. I should know be episodes 178 179 almost the big 180 I don't know why that's a big number we edge closer and closer to 200 which I hear there's widescreen just belong beyond that I'm very excited for that But nonetheless, we were hit to here today and then this battle is really heating up It's only a matter of time before in a room himself has to step in and again I don't think there's a single person can that can take that man on But nonetheless our heroes are at least half of our heroes are trapped inside the belly of a snake trying to find their way out All the outside Zorro and wiper battle it out against home and his dog. Holy, we're gonna hop right into these episodes If you need a channel, drop us up and hit that big one bell. Let's get started Well home the dog or wiper. Yeah wiper you're making this so much more difficult man. I Guess the snake too. Yeah, well wiper and the snake the wiper is kind of changing its target between the snake and Zorro It's complicated You literally just have to get close in terms of a whip if you stay at a distance, he's gonna keep you at a distance This poor snake man Izan whip It's not about the gold right now for Zorro it's about defeating him saving chopper and everybody else where the heck is he Can we check it on Robin this episode? I'm kind of curious. You gotta be able to sneak up on him somehow. Oh It's the mantra probably he might have all hacks actually I like how in a room gave them permission to be wherever and they still stayed in their domains. I just realized that I'm guessing it was that the holy warrior Where they are really keeping us up to date by people two animals two more to go Oh Bro called it before the shot hit. Okay. That's kind of badass. You have to admit it So yeah, he isn't counting the people inside the snake. So that's how it's There's a lot of application of this So that's how that's kind of our work around around the prophecy is them being inside the snake Never said that it's just a very odd strategy or it's pretty OP It's only the mini forms you just have to find a way to get close.  Oh wait, he did train for this for the range. We needed range. He said okay, so there are options He's just walking so okay. Yeah, it is mantra. Yeah. Oh Shoot he's got the headband on baby. Oh No, this poor Shandian And maybe he can actually take the dog down. Oh never mind. Oh definitely never mind this dog is OP What do people do animals? That's five survivors. We're done steady breathing Yeah, because you're gonna be gone should have specified Like he holds them together he's like the strongest The rules got resolved. He does have wall hacks. Look at this man Maybe you have the free will to decide later. He's fighting it up. He'll battle He has to fight against like a like lag like an input delay two to three seconds as he knows what's gonna happen 108 caliber He's popping off Well, I'm sent back. Let's go. Let's talk about baby. He one shot him. Damn. Oh, come on double tap. Put him down I can't tell what the glasses You've seen worse mommy come on.  Oh, they're gonna loopy years. We're gonna barrel evil. Hi I His perspective of if she's a skeleton, it's there's still time for her to be saved Well, he saved you he's worried about you. You're just a youngster. I so come on not right now This isn't the time and he didn't help them either. He seemingly tried from what we saw but I don't really do much I'm not surprised that that's that's his response. Yeah, you can tell he harbors guilt for it Maybe he harbored even more after in a rude drove him out of power and he was even able to do less for them So if this head is what it takes Here's just casually dead while they're arguing not me just trying to put it in the perspective for Issa It's hard for her though right now, especially because there's no other shannies here. There's nobody I mean people She's unfamiliar with she's gonna stab into the ground.  I'm checking on Robin. Yes, my goat Seems there's no golden any longer And where would it be hidden though, it was just deep within the ruins. You got dig down even more Oh my gosh No He doesn't seem in a hurry to Take her out or anything. He's the one who found it. So gunfall never even knew it was here. It's just former gods This OST is so pretty months and she found it just looking around the first time. I guess he actually can read the ruins So he already knew the gold was gone Yeah, I would have assumed it was him too like when he took over he took it all He's not a very shiny person in terms of his fit He's extra but he didn't know about the bell and he didn't take the gold. Maybe he's still looking for it, too She's gonna be like, why should I tell you So it's still on earth the bell Where would it have been it wouldn't have been in Jaya the people would have found in Jaya already. Oh Oh, he was just bluffing He realized he can get something out of her now or he has some use for her That's kind of crazy like they're kind of like mysterious it rises into the sky and then the bell rings I guess just a sheer motion of the the huge island rising So where he said it's on the island though or would have been you look for the golden Dude in a room is so weird There's more to it That way who would be running right now and he sits there right away dude mantra is insane It's nice that she's taking care of them it wasn't her dad that was running right it was someone else There's no way such kind people won't get better, bro. They are too nice Oh My gosh, he is just a sweetie pie She's alarming is it whoever was running at the edge of the island. So was the alarm bot man. She's alerting you Oh, well, there's a guy that was running Forward oh wait, he's one of God falls men that was taken. Oh shoot. He can tell them everything. How did he escape? He does have the like circle thing that people like angels have Return everything That's the plan to just drop it Wait, but the only people on the island are them eliminate everyone living in the sky So drop the island back to Jaya and then just kill everybody on Angel Island. Oh No, yeah, that's what I'm saying Why would in a room get rid of the plate an arc mark maximum. What's an arc? There's a What is happening where my shades?  Don't make me look at anyone longingly like that ever unless they're about to die Okay, a lot happened there at the end it revealed that he's planning on just killing everybody in the sky and then dropping it that He had them building an arc Maxim my only guess is that they he was forcing them to build the flying ship so that he could go down to the blue Sea and then sort of rule over them with that flying ship I guess maybe he got bored being up here just ruling over all of them. I'm not sure Damn I'm just gonna assume he's dead now just to save myself the tears it makes sense that they did that that like this episode Shameless episode 179. Let's run it One loose end. I I completely forgot about that We still kind of have to keep a tab on is the mysterious person that was like rebuilding their ship to that happened And then you just like nothing ever came of it for a second That was who was ever whoever was running to tell them what was going on But I think if it had been that random soldier He would have just gone to them originally and told them the plan of what was happening So I don't think it could have been him has to be a big part of stuff though He was literally too sweet for this world man Damn as if Connors didn't have enough to fight for already I can shoot the tears don't fall on her Oh She's gonna have to leave us up and Sanji the war and people she has to oh He's already begun or is this just her visualizing it. Oh, yeah, it's her like.  Let's go. That's my swordsmen. I Almost wish he was conscious so he we could hear his excuses for losing They're still not out of the snake either. Oh, I forgot about his dog. Oh my gosh Wait, he listened to Zoro No shot You can't be serious man, I just will witness It's a big ol snake man, maybe they make the snake feel better by getting them out He'll be grateful and fight for them Boughts. I Mean he's been shooting an RPG at it Zoro's swords don't work. I don't know what you do honestly Everybody's just tumbled around inside. Oh my gosh loopy Just Nami not worried about gunball at the very least or the child It's pitiful war wasn't great pain Oh, no Okay, at least he sees us entertainment. He's not worried about taking her down dude seeing Robin scared is weird Oh wait, is that logia fruit logia power? He's speaking to the people of Angel Island Sangle He broke the cage. Oh my gosh He's wiping it. He said come to me. Is he dropping them to him?  Did I see a shoe? Who's shoe was that?  This is your shot.  Oh Oh What happen momentum is that what it is? Okay, they're all just falling out. Yeah, she should have lost them. Oh my gosh This is chaos here. Don't worry about us No, Pierre go up here. So giga chat is flew right back in my name is gone fall gone fall What does that actually matter right now is he just making a joke? So is men this tabushino normal people I like this is the way of like their way of reuniting. Yep. This is it. No gold That's what I was saying they didn't look insanely different, but this is technically like the original chandora It's just weird the way in a room responded about like understanding like where the bell is how he said he knew But he didn't knew what happened to the goal, but didn't I don't know the snake is finally free Oh, wait, not yet.  I'm so dumb. I cannot believe I forgot that Pierre transforms I should actually just retire as a professional anime reactor in general.  Yeah, they know what they're doing. Oh Yeah, very fortunate bird or horse. I want to see Pierre's origin story. That's the most important thing We're on earth. I like that. We're on earth I'm surprised this wasn't found before because like the way it was presented where he just did that He straight up broke through the clouds right above them and it was like right I guess because you'd have to dig down down down down and Robin found like an easier way in. Oh man Dude, that's got to be a lot for wiper The original land How girl looks like a gig a chat dude. They've lost so many people that is so sad It's really just been like one really long day like remind me if I'm misremembering remember if wiper is like the direct Descendant of Calgary kind of what it seems like whenever I did that fade Yeah, wait, what is it looking for? No, it's actually like searching for something Is it drawing or crying? I didn't used to live here or something Somebody wake up chopper. He'll translate No Not the snake. Oh my gosh. Oh, they're still inside too Navigator I like how she refers to them like that like swordsman navigator Poor snack with this snake deserved better man. It's been going through it Yeah, also, how does wiper have such unlimited ammo, how's this man still firing that bazooka? It's so hopeless man. It's so hopeless. Oh He copied Satsuri's move The laugh just isn't as annoying He's a very nimble guy though. It's very intimidating how he just hops around and stuff So how many are standing technically since they're outside wait it did that so they would stay inside the snake You want One two three four and then technically Nami and chopper is knocked out. He knew there would be none basically none left It's crazy to all the warriors all the divine warriors and all the other shandians are just done So why not all dead but all just like out out like knocked out at the very least Also, she's because he considered himself a player in the game. Oh, he definitely knows you're there Nami. I'm sorry Maybe not Oh, he does know I guess you have to die in a room And change it. Will you fight each other or fight me? Dang dude I'm not going to shot. Oh, I guess it's an enniru's hands then They looked at Nami She has just her hand Oh shoot Eminem is ready for the throwdown. God dang dude. It has come to this. I love how much it's built up It really did exaggerate the entire game concept and how he He said there had to be a certain number left at the end and no more than that less is fine But now it all did come to this and now this prophecy for it to come through one more has to drop It's a good thing Luffy didn't didn't end up being thrown out of the state because then they need two more to die Because then there'd still be isa but a lot more revealed about enniru's plan that the rest still don't even know Because technically right now conus is the only one that knows what's going on and what enniru's planning to do At least a general idea. So where is this arc maxim and is that the ship that was built? And why did said ship take like what was it six years? He said 6d. I don't remember. I'd probably six That's a long time for a ship. It has to be huge. So where are they hiding this bad boy? But nonetheless, I'm very curious for the next couple episodes I'm anticipating the next couple episodes not just for this fight that's going to go down But to see more of this plan fleshed out and why exactly he's doing it Like I said, my only guess is that he's just bored up here of what he does And he he wants a more fast-paced more fighting lifestyle And although they have kind of gone down the same trope of kind of keeping Luffy out of the fight a lot And near the I guess this part of this arc it has sort of worked in its favor because chopper got a big highlight In fact, every member of the crew kind of got their own highlight in a sort of way robin not even in a fight But got her own highlight just exploring chandora, which I loved guys That's been every episodes 178 179 or one piece watch through do drop a sub on the channel If you are new and I catch you guys in the next one Peace peace