This is why I always like to look presentable Just in case somebody call me and be like, all right, come out And I'm like, okay, I got you Like today I'm feeling the vibes So I'm like, all right, wait, hold on I'm gonna be out of the police So wait, that's really security Yeah, so I need, I'm just gonna go get a matcha real quick And then go home and then edit And then I need to get my nails done Because they're ugly, they're atrocious And yeah, I'm just gonna hang out with her For the vibes and see what today, where today takes us I guess But I do have to go pick up my frame from Framebridge Because I got ordered a new frame Because I'm like, you know, I want to create vibes in my house While I'm there, because I don't want You know, I want to live in my house So I ordered me a frame and I need to put it up So I need to know the vibes So I could go to Salty Donut But I'm too tempting, too tempting But at least I get to get a matcha Because the matcha at Wave 3 is so good, y'all When I tell you 10 out of 10 matcha But this goal is giving me extra vibes But it's okay Like, I'm really just trying to be like It's okay, Kara, you can be extra Like, it's fine No matter the location, because y'all Elena is so dead It's just like, why am I dressing up for it?  Who is beeping? But anyways, I'll try them It's a little later And I'm actually going to go to the Palatin Row To have I really want to express my team right now And some tacos So Pretty Little Tacos is in Palatin Row So we're going to go there in Colony Square And I'm meeting up with Jay She's about to come get me I didn't get my nails done today I was working, just couldn't do it But y'all need to get into these products Like, this highlight is insane Like, it's so good Like, I was just telling my friend She's a makeup artist I was like, this highlighter is so good She's like, wow, that's so pretty Anyways, I gotta meet Jay And I guess I'll check with y'all once I get there But I'm starting, but And this is the fit And I don't know if I told y'all But this outfit is from my outfit online They came out with a whole bunch of new basics These pants, white leg, friendly I love, they're super long So probably tall girl friendly for sure But I am short And then they sent me this matching top I literally need more colors Cause the quality is just so good And then I seen Tosh with it on And I was like, yeah, he's giving So cute But yeah, anyways I'll see y'all What's the moment? Hey y'all, so it's the next day And y'all have seen I went to frame bridge Cause I just got a new frame For my living room I'm about to put it up now I ordered a test wrap But to come put it up Because I'm not doing that So, anyways But I got this Barbie painting y'all It's so cute And I feel like it just symbolizes How many hats a woman can wear And that she's a fighter But she's still wearing it And she's wearing it But she still gets to business Okay, so I've had my eye On this piece for a little minute now So I was like, you know what I need to add some art in here My living room y'all know I've been changing things In my living room or whatever But yeah, I think it's so cute But I'm about to put it up now And yeah, we're gonna get to it So I'm gonna check in back with y'all Once I put it up But it's adorable And then also I did order A throw blanket too Because I just wanted to add color On my couch But without pillows So yeah, we'll set that out too But yeah That feeling to his alien stuff But that night Something was weird X5 Wait, I mean We had kind of some dates Like we'd have A date that he's gonna Take me with Before I convert I kind of like Okay You can't even taste the alcohol I thought it was gonna be Not bad about it She could have a secret Y'all, so here's the painting Hung up She is so cute And I just love Like this vibe It's just so cute And it's just crazy how Just that painting alone It just makes The space look so much different And then yeah I got those mushrooms in the last vlog But yeah, it's just Yeah, I had to add some character To my living room, y'all And I can't show y'all My messy room But this is the blanket I was talking about It's too pink, y'all It's so bright I'm like, no I want it like a softer Like blush pink So I'm probably gonna have to Reorder another one But do y'all see the vision? Do you? Do you see it? Or do you not? That's a work But I really need to go get my nails done They look so bad So, um, yeah Kelly is supposed to be coming Like in this area To get her nails done So I was like Okay, I'll meet you Cause I haven't seen her In like a while So I'm like We can just go get our nails done together But, yeah And I want to go to a yoga class tonight One of my favorite instructors Is teaching And y'all It's supposed to get Zero degrees So I gotta make sure My heat is on I'm about to get to work And also, like I said I got my artwork Off of a frame bridge Cause the Artist who actually Takes these Barbie photos He sells his Things On there So And then also He has a bunch of pop ups He goes around and does I was gonna do that But I'm like No, I rather just Have it ordered Have it shipped here Cause I don't want it to break Or anything like that So But yeah It's so cute I just think it's adorable But, yeah Let me go ahead And get to crack a lacking Crack a lacking Y'all Y'all So we just got our nails done Showed them your nails The big complainer But she got them right So y'all We are about to go to YEPA This is a new restaurant They should always talk about this This is our first time Seeing each other this year And like a month It feels like Yeah, it's insane The last time I seen her Was her birthday So Yeah, we're about to be On our way to this restaurant YEPA Are we in Alaska? Like, what's going on? Oh my God Oh my God With our uggs on With our uggs And our fuzzy pants But yeah, y'all We're about to walk in here In this hat All right, come on But this is the restaurant It's so cute I can't wait to eat So I'm hungry But I'm about to fill this Stanley So Let me outside Go to the gym And just drift away Kind of like some sleep In the breeze Guy just focused on this room So if you notice All the warmth All the heat The air is you may notice And feel around you All the incense That's your strips And warmth Still up here Now start to listen Focus in on the rhythm of your breath Just notice how you're breathing Or you notice how you're feeling Make fun of it Settle in and do nothing But just Stay Now let us begin To breathe together So I'm going to deep breath in Won't fill Hope you're about to let it go Amazing breath Let's take that again Fill in In deep How deep is my ball? Day Fill up This side let's stay Take a little step Maybe one more Then sign out Close your chest back to your hands You feel And breathe Pull in here Now it's your turn Now Grab your free body Now bring your feet together Touch Bring your feet slightly close Your hands Like chop Stand to the end Chop Seven Five to six Three Last three Five to ten And lower Try to feel that right Beautiful Beautiful Now when the ground is released Relax And recover Go Up And release Now there's one more With your hands Now it's your turn Now it's your turn Now it's your turn Now it's your turn So I'm going to start With a big breath in Deep sigh out I'd like to thank y'all so much For joining me today And Sean We'll check you out To the list of practices I'd have to blast In a year We had some fun too So all that being said Go and peace my friends With all of our boys As you say in You can say Namaste Yay The instructor He's so good His name is Theo He's amazing And his playlist Is so good I just got dressed I'm about to Make my way over To the coffee shop And get some work done Before my facial appointment That we have today With Shay I cannot wait to get A facial for this month Because Yeah I need it I've been traveling And stuff So it's time And I think I'm going to wear this White sail Today This just gives me A girl that's on her Boss-ish On a daily You know And that's the vibe We're going to say And then I'm going to Mix it with the Time for our Tobacco vanilla And I need to Go get my iPods fixed Because I don't know Why it's not charging And y'all Want to know what's so crazy I haven't even Opened up Yeah, I say perfume So I actually Have a little Date tonight Oh, and This is the color Of my nails I actually might Get them changed I kind of want them To be a little bit Thinner And a little shorter So I might get that Done after my facial But Yeah, I'm about to Head to the Coffee shop And get some work done But what I was saying That my Airpods Don't work These glasses are so cute On Amazon girl Length of my Amazon store front But I probably won't Wear these Should I wear them? I mean the sun is out I mean why not I'm about to get a Move on because I have to do this Before one o'clock Now outfit This turtle neck Is actually from Wolford And I like that The color is a little Bit more slouchy And then The leggings are Just from Wolford And I'm just about to Throw on the same jacket That I wore today So let go Yeah, exactly You know what I can not Miss my Facial today I'm not going to wrap you up good Your texture looks bomb You look a little rosy On the sides though I do Yeah, just a little bit Like right in here Maybe because I'm cold Okay, maybe that's One of these I'm like you're not Having a reaction What did you use Any retin' on the last week? No, I haven't I've been using it at night But I haven't been Using it lately Because if I don't Feel like I need to do it I won't do it But yeah Do you want to have a cheeky Yeah Yes, of course The enzymes out Like this one It's nice and hydrating You can even Moisture that for it Amazing Like it's so slick You have great texture Well, I've been Really using Almond-shaped Nuggy stash In my shirt I think I did in there, girl It looks so good Hey, y'all So Oof, skin is on glass Baby, okay Yeah, y'all I'll be having to make sure This camera isn't on slow-mo But anyways I need to do A serious clean out Of my closet Because this Is Ridiculous I didn't even clean out I didn't even put away My clothes from my Longie lady And I just Made a batch for her To come pick up Because she's about to Come get these And So Oh, and also, y'all I'm really like I'm really trying to Create the vibe In my living room, y'all Like with the painting, you know And this little chrome Lamp It's cute The white one was right there But I just don't like The black cord showing This was supposed to Be a cordless one But I really just Like The chrome I don't know Like, you can't really See it right now But you'll see it in The daytime But yeah Anywho I have a dinner date tonight So We are going to be Getting ready for that In a few But this closet's Girl It's a mess It's so bad I did a change My nail color To a darker color I just ran There really quick Super cute But yeah This closet Y'all Should I just I need to just Go through and see What I want to donate And see what I want to sell Because This is actually Getting Um Ridiculous I don't want to Do this anymore Like, I just Don't want to go through This anymore I swear to you Half of this stuff I probably don't even wear So I'm like Ugh I just need to Get rid of it like Yeah I'm just really Trying to find Like my personal Style I just want to Mix it up a little bit Um But still have Like that clean Sheep girl look It's like I'm trying But yeah I'm not doing it today I am gonna About I'm about to figure out What I'm about to wear That's what I'm About to do And I guess Y'all can help Your girl Where do my Phone just go I was gonna Just keep this on Cause y'all Is so cold It's Ridiculous Yeah It's 625 I'm going to dinner At 830 Um And I can't wait Cause it's at My favorite So good I actually need to Put my phone on the charger To see What the options are And I'm gonna Come back on camera And show y'all So I just Picked up some clothes From the Taylor And Girl They was Blowing my phone up Okay When I tell you I forgot About these clothes And I still Got to take Some more To the Taylor Anyways So These are Like the Yes You always got to do A booty check Like A booty check One, two, one, two But yeah These I like the fit of these And With pants I always have the issue With the crotch area But I'm So happy I'm getting into belts So I can just Wear a little build If I wanted to Like It's a brown wash And I think I might wear My kitten heels I wish you Would have left these longer Does my Does it look like I have a crotch? Does it? No Just kidding But Okay, this is good I guess this is fine What is a giving Y'all? What is a giving? And then I also have another pair of Pants Let me put them on These are actually from Mood But I can't wear these Tonight Cause there's a dress code Now these pants Are so cute But I can't wear them Because You can't have Holds and Pants This restaurant But Super cute These are from Mood DeBella's clothing line I had to get them taken in And they fit good That's the only issue Like I've seen this hack on Yeah, TikTok She tied a ribbon In the back But then like hit her shirt I think I'm gonna Start doing that If I ever have like A little gap And I don't know where Like a ribbon In the back And hide the shirt That just makes sense But yeah These are cute The waist and booty ratio Babes I just got these pants Off and above Super cute Like attico Inspired pants But bags look They're gonna have to put Like a G-Street A drawstring in this Cause I don't want it too tight Like the fit Is perfect in the front Like crotch It's not even crotch It's giving Like cool girl You know But It's that area in the back It's that area in the back I'm gonna have to take these Tomorrow I'm gonna take the drawstring in there But I just love these Buttons on I love the bottom detail Super duper cute So cute I'm gonna have these linked Down below But yeah I can't wear these tonight So y'all This is the outfit I decided to go with I decided to keep on What I had on for the day And this coat Is from Koss My Chanel bag I never get to wear it So Perfect opportunity And then My Steve Madden Shoes So But yeah girl So see you later Hey y'all Good morning Y'all We are about to make our way To Sephora Because Today is the day Slicks live Then hit the stores y'all On Topicals.com So And I'm telling y'all It's literally the best lip balm ever Like You really feel the difference In a lip So I have to go It's like 10, 11 o'clock I called home girl I said Hey do y'all have it She said Yeah we got 10 I recommend you Place an order online Picking it up And I was like No I'm coming And I might go to A cycle bar Flash later But y'all We gotta go I gotta go grab it And I left And then Yeah girl I don't even want to waste time On accident I'm gonna be like I wanted to But I'm like They just took me on a trip Relax So I was like Okay Let me just I'm gonna just wait till it hits stores So Yeah I'm about to be on my way There now And yeah So Let go Hey y'all The door's unlocked This is yours Don't think this is A regular thing bitch I said Don't think this is A regular thing Okay Welcome Thank you How much is it? Um You're fine Are you sure?


Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the Center for Strategic International Studies. I'm Andrew Schwartz. I'm our Senior Vice President for External Relations, and I have the pleasure of working with these wonderful colleagues here who have agreed to get up at the crack of dawn, and everybody, thank you all for coming so early, too. We knew today was a busy day, and there's a lot of other briefings going on at the White House and so forth, and so we wanted to get this done early. We will have a transcript later today which either Ryan or I will mail it out, and the only reason it won't be me is because I was just telling Howard and some others I'm embroiled in the politics of third grade basketball, and I also have to coach my fifth grade baseball team today, so these are important matters of national security that I'm sure all of you came here to hear about, but we will be sending out a transcript later today, and we'll also have video of this up on the website within a few hours after the event. Without further ado, I'd like to introduce our Middle East program director, John Alterman. Many of you know John. He's one of our senior, senior people here at CSIS and has a few things to say about what's going to be happening at the UN next week, and with that I will turn it over to John. Thank you. Thank you. It's good to see you all. Because I know there's a lot of interest in this, I took the effort and I found a copy of Susan Rice's diary from last night, and the entry starts with, it was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, the age of foolishness, it was the epic of belief, the epic of incredulity, the season of light, the season of darkness, the spring of hope, the winter of despair. That's what this week is going to be like. There's good news that's coming out of the UN, and the good news is the Libya stuff is actually going pretty well. With the Libya stuff, if you're at the Obama administration, where do you want Libya to go? You want Libya to go precisely where it has been going. There has been no mass casualties in Libya, no huge retribution, the international community is stepping up, there'll be a new resolution today in the Security Council that will authorize Ian Martin to go in with a team to work. It's not the United States making Libya into a model of what it wants to be. It's the U.S. and the international community assisting Libya, not with the U.S. responsibility, but with broad international support, and the U.S. has played a facilitating role. We have a huge number of bilateral issues, very important issues, not just having to do with governance, but having to do with weapons and decommissioning of weapons, finding the weapons that have disappeared. It's not that we don't have issues in Libya, but the international community is acting precisely the way the United States would like the international community to act. The administration is playing the role it would like to play, and events on the ground are unfolding very much the way the United States would like them to unfold. That's not to say Libya is going to be a success, it's much too early. We have a lot of bumps in the road ahead of us. But where we are with the U.N. right now, I think the feeling is this is moving in place, this is what the U.N. is supposed to do. That's the good stuff. That's the best of times. The worst of times is I can't figure out any way anybody comes out ahead on this Palestine vote. I see it hurting everybody's interests. The Israelis have thrown down the gauntlet and said this is a vital threat to the state of Israel. Raising the stakes on a vote, it will surely lose. The United States finds itself in an impossible position, says it will veto the resolution. Security council will end up once again on the wrong end of a lopsided vote in the general assembly. Surely leading to all sorts of complaints, the administration has no credibility to the international state. The Europeans, I'll defer to Heather on this, I think the Europeans have a miserable choice ahead of them because in the one hand they have been vociferously articulating their desire for a Palestinian state. They don't want to be on the wrong side of the United States. They don't want to alienate the Israelis. There is no good way for this to turn out for Europe and for the Palestinians. Does this really do anything for the Palestinians? I would argue it does nothing for the Palestinians. It raises expectations in the Palestinian community for what follows. It does nothing practical that advances Palestinian interests. It antagonizes the Israelis, it makes them feel more isolated, it has them hunker down more, and it antagonizes Congress which may cut U.S. funding for the Palestinian authority. I don't see any way anybody does an iota better as a consequence of this, but everybody is in a position where it's very hard to step down. The administration's approach has been to try to subvert this with diplomatic negotiations. We'll do enough of a push toward diplomacy that it'll make everybody happy. Well, first, I don't think diplomacy is going to be enough to dissuade people. Second, I don't think the missing link here is diplomacy. I think the missing link is politics. The missing link is that there is no support on the Israeli side for making far-reaching concessions to the Palestinians because they don't think it'll get them peace. There is no support on the Palestinian side for making far-reaching concessions to the Israelis because they don't think it'll get them peace. And until you begin to alter those politics, it's very hard to make the diplomacy work. Is it possible to get a broader resolution that says some things that may make a more constructive environment in the future? It's possible. But the real danger and I think the likelihood is that where we will go is toward greater feelings of isolation, greater feelings of vulnerability, that this won't be constructive for anybody. The sort of U.S.-Israeli angle of this, which I think agonizes the Obama administration deeply and agonizes the government of Israel, is something that we've talked about in this book that we're rolling out at 9.30 this morning about the future of the U.S.-Israeli relationship. So if you have some downtime in your briefings today, I think it's worth a look. It describes the fact that this is not the old U.S.-Israeli relationship and it won't be the U.S.-Israeli relationship going forward. I think it is well worth the time it'll take you to read it and I commend it to you. And with that, I turn over. We do have copies of our new report, Crossroads, about the U.S.-Israeli relationship by Haya Malka, which Ryan has at the back of the room, so we'll make sure you guys get copies of each of them. Do you want to hear? Sure. And my colleague Mark Horteman, who is the director of our C-3 program, Conflict Cooperation, Conflict Crisis Conflict and Cooperation, marks, of course, former UN official, we're very grateful to have him here this morning. Mark. Thank you all for coming. After that lead-in from John, you can't do much better than tail up two cities, but before I get to the really turgid stuff about General Assembly vote, Security Council resolutions, and I do plan to say a few words about that, I just want to, in a more general way, talk about what next week means in a general sense. The general debate of the General Assembly really is the annual convention of heads of state and governments. They come together in any industry. As in any annual convention, less interesting things often happen in the convention meeting rooms, and more interesting things happen on the margins. The bilateral meetings, the president's going to have the small group meetings. If you look at it this way, then the speeches become a lot less important, and the interactions on issues that they're just going to take advantage of being together become a lot more important. And you can imagine what that shadow agenda is, that bleeds a little bit into the official agenda, the vote on Palestinian recognition, the updating each other on the Arab Spring and activities regarding that. Libya, Syria, the economic crisis in the European Union will be key issues. As regards the Palestinians, the recent news reports are saying that they're first going to opt for full membership, which means that they have to go through the Security Council. And then there would be a likely fallback, as John said, to the General Assembly. And it's extremely likely, of course, that the United States will veto, although there is another option of sending it to a committee of the whole of the Security Council to review the Palestinians' request. That would kick the can down the road a bit. It wouldn't necessarily be that useful a delaying tactic, but it is a delaying tactic. Eventually, pardon me? Well, not to the new General Assembly, because the Security Council meets on a rolling basis. So a couple of months, maybe a month or so, this wouldn't be kicking it to the next year. But ultimately, it probably would come up for a vote in the Security Council, because there would be the support to bring it up for a vote. And inevitably, the US would veto. Just a footnote here. The Soviet Union set all sorts of records that will never be broken, kind of Joe DiMaggio's sorts of records for vetoes in the Security Council. But since about the early 1980s, the US has been the most active member of the, by far actually the most active member of the Security Council in exercising its veto on the Security Council. And almost every one of those vetoes was on an Israeli-Palestinian issue. And it often found itself vetoing to override votes even by its allies in favor of a resolution by the UK and France, among others. So that appears to be the Palestinians first step, and they're going for the full membership. The second step then would be to go to the General Assembly for an upgrade of their membership. Right now, they're permanent observers, and they would be looking for a non-member state status. Now, people talk about that as Vatican status, which is, and it's the status that the Vatican holds now. But Switzerland held that status for a number of years when it wasn't sure it wanted to join the United Nations. And early in their respective existences, South Korea and West Germany held that status, too. So this would, the Palestinians believe, put them in a position to be able then to exceed to a number of international treaties, the International Criminal Court joined any range of much less glamorous international bodies, and would raise their status in general around the world. Now, we should also know that the PLO for many years has had diplomatic status around the world in a number of countries. I think over 100, 130 have recognized the PLO and have, as the representatives of the Palestinian people, and there are PLO diplomats in official missions in 130 countries. We need to think about that when we think about the vote. There's overwhelming support among the member states of the United Nations for Palestinian statehood. And as Jonathan correctly pointed out, the real question in the General Assembly vote is not whether there would be support for this, but rather where would key US allies end up on this vote? Where would European Union members, among others, to put the vote in, a vote like this in some context, too. I've had a few questions from reporters over recent days saying, well, if the US loses a vote like this in the General Assembly, would this be an example of a diminishment of President Obama's power? Well, there are about a dozen votes on the Palestinian issue that come up every year in the General Assembly. The vote count ranges from 116 to five, to maybe eight abstentions, to 123 to four abstentions or whatever, and the US is almost always on the no side. And the US voting pattern and the pattern in the General Assembly has been locked into place for decades. So an overwhelming loss on this vote would be very much, for the US, would be very much along the lines of the half dozen or so votes. I mean, one that was just up this year was a resolution by the General Assembly urging the Israelis to compensate the Lebanese for oil slicks on Lebanese shores from Israeli military actions. And if you bear with me for a second, I'll let you know what that vote was. The US voted against it and it was 163 in favor, eight no, five abstaining and the US voted no. If it were to go to the General Assembly, if there were to be a vote on that vote, it was urging Israel to compensate Lebanon for oil slicks caused by Israeli military action. There are other votes on condemning Israeli settlement policy, human rights abuses in the occupied Palestinian territory among other things, and the vote count is very similar. And they're probably, they're close to a dozen or so votes every year on a variety of issues regarding Palestinians, whether it's... In the General Assembly. In other bodies there are more. Yes, exactly, whether it's supporting the existence of a division for Palestinian rights in the Department of Political Affairs, in the UN, the secretariat or other things, and the vote counts, as I say, range from 116 to seven to a number of abstentions. So the question really will be, where will US European allies end up on this issue? How overwhelming will the vote be? And then ultimately, getting away from the narrow UN politics, how useful will this be, or how damaging will this be, as John said, for the range of players, the US, the Israelis, the Palestinians, the Europeans, and others? John pretty much covered Libya. It is a positive story, and it's very much the UN, as John said, doing what the UN does. This is a post-conflict issue. The proposal based on initially a letter from Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to the President of the Security Council that's since been translated into a resolution for the Security Council would provide for an assistance mission to be headed by actually my old boss, Ian Martin. He was my boss in East Timor, where he saw the referendum vote for East Timor, East Independence. But where Ian would lead a mission that would assist Libya in a range of post-conflict issues, it could be with security sector reform, financial sector reform, among other things, as well as helping to coordinate international donors in general. This is very much a comfort zone for the UN. The UN has been in the lead on this. I wrote something a while back, a way at the beginning, when Resolution 1970 was adopted on sanctions, that the UN acted with extraordinary speed for the Security Council, for any UN body, and fulfilled what, at least I thought, was a multilateral moment. Potential crimes against humanity, or at least a humanitarian disaster occurring in Libya, and acting first with a resolution on sanctions, and then with a resolution authorizing military action to head that off. The Security Council did what it needed to do. The interesting shift in power question, and I'll stop after this, this is a broader question, not just for this general debate, is not whether, as I said, what happens in the General Assembly on the Palestinians, but rather the number of states that abstained on Resolution 1973 that authorized military action, and which states they were. Emerging powers lined up against the military action. China, of course, abstained, Russia abstained, but India and Brazil as well, Germany for its own reasons. But this is a very interesting question that I think we'll see more of in the future, in part because we have a surprisingly, I suppose you could say, powerful Security Council now with maybe four and a half members of the Council who have desires to be permanent, and reasonable claims to be permanent members of the Council. Brazil, India, South Africa, I'm blanking on one, Brazil, India, South Africa. I've also got Nigeria on the Council, which in the past might have been a legitimate contender. Oh, in Germany, of course. And it's really, thank you, and it's extraordinary to have that degree of regional power on the Security Council at the same time. And I think therefore it's very interesting to look back at their votes on the Libya issue and the blocking of action on Syria in that context. And with that, I will turn over to Andrew to turn over to Heather. Thank you. Well, Heather Conley, who's our Europe Program Director, many of you know, and Heather. Thank you very much. John, when you started your quote, I actually thought you were talking about Europe. It is the best of time certainly for President Sarkozy and Prime Minister Cameron yesterday in their triumph and visit to Benghazi and Tripoli, and John, I think the Europeans would agree, certainly with your assessment that Libya, with a sigh of relief, has turned out well. I think they would slightly alter it in part because of strong European leadership, whether that was at the Security Council table or at NATO or in providing the military and security efforts to lead to what we see today as victory. So indeed, I think, I'm starting to pay close attention what I'm sort of terming as a European reawakening, we talk about the Arab awakening, a European reawakening in its foreign policy efforts towards North Africa in the Middle East. The stakes are very high for Europe, obviously, both economically as well as politically. And I think you're seeing now a much stronger role for Europe. Perhaps this is because the United States, whether the leadership from behind model or perhaps in the Israeli-Palestinian context, having a difficult time expressing and influencing, perhaps Europe now sees an opportunity and a moment to use its unique blend of soft power, and I'll talk about that in a moment in providing really impressive amount of funding to the Palestinian Authority, as well as their leadership diplomatically to see where they can bring some resolution to this. So indeed, let me talk about a bit on the Palestinian front. Like Libya, unfortunately, there's nothing common about the European foreign and security policy towards the Middle East. It's fractured, and I think we will definitely see that playing out next week. Prime Minister Netanyahu has spent a great deal of time this summer in European capitals, I think in anticipation of trying to shore up European support in some part or negate European activism against Israeli positions. What we're seeing, though, will be a split. The German government has already messaged pretty clearly that it will not support efforts by the Palestinians to seek membership or a status. I think in part this is in response to their Libya vote, where they are messaging early and often to manage the surprise factor of their abstention on UN Security Council Resolution 1973. I think you're going to also see a split, quite frankly, with France leaning certainly towards support the Palestinian position. And I think we have to watch very closely where the British come out on this. Obviously, Tony Blair is taking a leadership role as the special envoy for the quartet. But again, they do have a problem. They want to be seen as an honest broker here. And I think, as John was saying, no one's going to win here, and they're very concerned about how this is going to reflect on them. So I think we will watch them. The other actor to watch, quite frankly, is Catherine Ashton, the EU high representative. Again, this is in part her credibility test. She was in the region earlier on Monday. I think she's trying to develop some sort of a package that would incorporate, at least again, this is what we're seeing from early reports. I think this is going to be a moving story throughout to try to manage a package where the quartet has a statement sort of going back to the negotiations, but perhaps putting some carrots in there that would be conducive. So we'll see if the EU can play a role here. I have my doubts because the member states will, quite frankly, be quite divided. It's interesting to note, again, how much the EU has put forward financially in strengthening Palestinian institutions. And I think, again, this is European soft power. Our sort of back of the envelope calculation since 1994, the EU has provided nearly 4 billion euros in assistance. Since 2008, that figure has been 1.6 billion euros. And just early this week, the EU gave a 16.3 million euro infusion to pay for Palestinian salaries. So they have an enormous amount of investment in seeing the Palestinian institutions strengthened. I think, so we'll see this move forward. As a side note, I think the interesting issue to watch is obviously Turkey's role in this. And this is sort of one of these, you put a asterisk beside this and we'll continue to watch this space. And we actually at CSIS have been following quite closely Turkey's reorientation potentially away from Europe and what that impact has on potential EU accession conversations with Turkey. This is potentially a thorn in the side of the European leadership in this part of the world if they're feeling a bit of competitive space with Prime Minister Erdogan. So we'll continue to watch that. And finally, as Mark has mentioned, meanwhile, as we're watching New York very closely, we're continuing to follow very closely the European economic crisis. And that will be the conversation in the hallways. That's why Secretary Tim Geithner has decided he needed to visit Europe twice this week and is in Poland today. We are watching these developments because again to get back to John's quote, the very best of times we have some external foreign policy activism by Europe the worst of times is because I believe that we are watching what has been over an 18 month crisis starting to morph into a slow motion collapse. And this will be, this is the story for Europe. This is the story for the global economy and watching that in relationship to how events unfold in New York I think will be very, very interesting. And I'm certainly, I don't wanna derail from our focus here which is on UNGA and the conversations in New York but I would not suggest to you that this is not going to be the hallway chatter in the halls of New York. So with that, thank you very much. Turn it over to you Andrew. Colleagues, thank you very much. I'd like to open it up for questions if you could speak into the microphone that would be helpful for the transcript and identify who you are and what news service you're with. Let's start with Howard. Great, thank you. I guess whoever, maybe John or Mark but do you see any usefulness to, I mean, we are hearing these rumors of some kind of a plan either coming from Blair or Ashton but that would kind of include elements where the Palestinians would be able to take something to somebody maybe the security council but shunt it off quickly to a bond. But anyway, with the idea of allowing some time for negotiations, direct negotiations to get going again, do you see any usefulness to that? And secondly, I mean, are there any prospects for talks getting going even if it is three months? And secondly, on Libya, I'm just wondering with this resolution today but yet with what impact might that have on the fact that there's still these pockets of resistance? Is it designed at all to kind of influence the new government in its approach to maybe not attacking these pockets or not violently going after Qaddafi? You know, in my analysis, the principal problem is a political problem and non-diplomatic one between the Israelis and the Palestinians. And the goal has to be to change the politics in each community, partly to create a sense of urgency to negotiate and partly to create a sense of necessity to negotiate. I don't see these resolutions doing either one of those. Everything I've heard about the resolutions will raise Palestinian expectations for where they are, make Israel feel more embattled, make Israel feel that it's being delegitimized on the world stage and rather than creating an urgency to negotiate, I see Israelis interpreting that as a sign they have to dig in. I haven't, I've heard rumors of the proposals, I haven't seen the proposals. I think you have to design the proposals to affect the political realities in those two communities, not find some structure to get negotiators in a room. Because even if the negotiators in a room can reach an agreement, they can't get people outside the room to buy into that agreement under current circumstances in my judgment. I don't know, I haven't heard anything about the resolutions intended to deal with these three pockets of resistance in Libya. I think that is principally a military issue rather than diplomatic one at this point. What we have seen an awful lot of is the international community trying to assist the transitional national council figuring out the tasks it needs to do and structuring framing them and trying to help them accomplish them to the extent they can give technical assistance. There has been a remarkable openness to that kind of assistance I think in part because it hasn't been tremendously heavy handed. You haven't seen 4,000 aid workers going in saying, okay, now we're gonna run your country for you. Ian Martin's team I think is gonna be on the order of 60, which is calculated in part to help the Libyans be not overwhelmed them. The question though remains and it's a question, the answer to which will only become clear over the next several months. Whether the people we're working with are gonna be the people who end up in power in Libya. And that is an unanswerable question at this point. The people we are working with now are making a lot of the right noises. They seem to have a lot of the right instincts. Whether in a year's time we're gonna look back and say we were all naive. Whether in a year's time we're gonna say we empowered the right guys and this went in a useful direction. Whether it's gonna be something mixed, it's too early to tell. But I can tell you that one of the things on the mind of the people in the Obama administration is very much trying to learn the lessons the last 15 years of conflict. Of trying to draw the experiences of learning lessons from Iraq, learning lessons from team war, learning lessons from a whole range of places about what the role should be, right sizing the role. Not so you maximize what we'd like, but so you maximize getting what we need. Very, I agree with everything John said. I just say on the Palestinian side, it would be, and I have a little, not nearly the background that John has, but a little bit of background in this. And I just, I think it would be very hard for Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas to pull back this multi-month long move toward the United Nations, very public move toward the United Nations without a very, very concrete process laid out in front of him. He has his own political issues to deal with as well and including the Gaza that's controlled by Hamas. And so whatever the Europeans are trying to put on the table and I would imagine that Heather might talk a little bit more about that. It would need to be extremely concrete and pointing toward progress soon. And I think that's very unlikely, as John said. On Libya, exactly right. I haven't seen the draft resolution, but I don't think that it addresses the pockets of resistance. It's really, it's a longer term. Mandate for a mission that will provide assistance to Libya as it moves forward with a focus on democracy, on human rights, on transitional justice, as well as on effective governance. And so to the extent that some of those human rights and transitional justice questions would come up in the treatment of Gaddafi supporters, the UN would be very strongly urging this regime to not to act in the way that the previous regime did and to keep human rights obligations in the forefront as well as to think about transitional justice questions. Will people be tried? What types of people will be tried in what circumstances? But I think the one thing we need to recognize, and I think John alluded to this, is transitions take a very long time and often follow a very bumpy path. Recent work done by the World Bank has shown that transitions from authoritarian rule to democracy can take up to a decade or more and in some cases, a generation to be solidified. So exactly the people we're talking to now will they be the people who will be in power six months from now and will they be the people that are in power three years from now and 10 years from now, will we look back and say, it was dicey for a while, but Libya has moved toward democracy. And I think we can look at Indonesia and other places and see their paths. I'm going to go to Margaret and then we'll come back. Thanks, Margaret Taleb with Bloomberg. So I've got like a million questions but I'll try to stick to the main ones. What are the stakes for those of us who cover President Obama, for President Obama at the UN General Assembly this year? His speech last year was all about saying, hey, I think we can come back here next year and celebrate a peace deal. And obviously that's not what this is all about. But what is he trying to show the world? Do Americans care? What are the domestic political stakes for him? Is there a stake among Jewish voters in America? And then on the ICC question, aren't there any real criminal or whatever liability implications for the Israelis? Or is that just sort of theoretical if there is a general assembly, a broad general assembly vote? Thanks. I'm going to do a partial duck on the first question, a complete duck and deferred to council. Second question. The way I read the newspaper, everybody's talking about everything, but the President speaks to the General Assembly meeting. The President is clearly focused on jobs and the economy. The politics of the budget are huge. We have a extraordinarily active Republican primary. I don't see the American public hanging on the words of the President at the General Assembly. That's not to say the President doesn't have a set of important tasks at the General Assembly. I think he has been trying to position America where he wants the country to be in international affairs. He has been trying to lead but not dominate. He has tried to accommodate others' leadership. He has tried to articulate principles that guide the way we see the world. So this was initially welcomed with rapture and has been dismissed. And I think he needs to rearticulate it in a way that's persuasive to an international audience. I just don't see a huge domestic audience for him at the General Assembly. And my guess is that the message of the month has to do with the economy and international affairs. No, I think that's right. I think the stakes are extremely low now. And one way they're low is that there won't be a vote on the Palestinian issue next week. So it's not as if President Obama will be there and have to sit in the Security Council and exercise the U.S.'s veto. So there will be a number of speeches. There'll be a number of meetings. There are much more important almost tectonic issues going on in the world economy. So I really don't think the stakes are all that high and the Palestinian issue will play out more slowly. This is a chance for President Obama to highlight the positive occurrences as regards Libya and maybe push a little bit on Syria and a few other issues and I would say that's about it. On the ICC it's purely theoretical for Israel. I mean, a first step would be the Palestinians being able to exceed to the Rome Statute and become a member state of the ICC. They would then have to refer the matter to the office of the prosecutor, a matter to the office of the prosecutor and it's theoretical as to what they would do. The office of the prosecutor would have to decide to take it up and then determine that there's a prima facie case and then it would bump up against Israel's non-membership in the international criminal court. So no, this is not something that would be an immediate threat to Israel or even a medium or even a longer term threat. Ron Campius from Jewish Telegraphic Agency.  So how important would that be? And then, and for Mark Korderman, the way that the Republicans and the conservatives have tried to cast the Obama administration in the United Nations is that in terms of what they actually do, they do the right thing. They veto, they oppose, but in terms of what they say, they represent a new tone in terms of criticism of Israel and they point to Susan Rice's speech at the Security Council when they vetoed the settlement resolution in the spring. Is that correct? Has there been a change in tone? As the events unfold and as Congress makes some funding decisions, European assistance to the Palestinian Authority will only grow in importance. I would argue that it's been absolutely vital in contributing to the institutional capacity that we have seen today. And certainly with US support, they don't mean to not suggest that American financial support and technical assistance hasn't been vital, but the EU has put forth an extraordinary amount. And I think they're gonna be very loathe to see that investment not continue. What we don't know in the long term is something we're studying longer-term trends, how austerity begins to impact Europe's ability to continue to support this type of effort. What we've seen so far through both the UK's recent budget-cutting exercise, they're willing to reduce European defense spending, but they keep their official development assistance fairly strong, which again is, I think, an underlying testament to their view that soft power is a vital instrument for them. So it will continue to be very vital and the decisions that the EU makes as well as individual member states about how they're going to fund this over the coming months, I think will be important in providing some tangible support. And I will turn the rest over to you, Mark. And I'd also like to hear from John on this, since they do have this book on US-Israel relations, but I'll, and the question you're asking about, the tone, of course, is a much bigger question than just US performance in the United Nations. But as regards the United Nations, there might be something of a change in tone from the Bush administration, the second Bush administration, of course, the George W, which was in effect the high watermark of US support for Israel, at least in rhetorical terms. I would say that in broad policy terms within the United Nations, there has been very little change between the Bush administration, the Obama administration, and generally, across administrations in voting against resolutions on the issue and trying to keep the issue out off the agenda of the Security Council among other issues. And so, but we should also remember that the Obama administration launched a bit of an effort on the settlements issue, I think, in part to jumpstart the peace talks and so Susan Rice's comments could be seen in that context as well. But in a broader sense, I turn to John on this. Look, I think the Obama administration, when the chips are down, the Obama administration has stood firmly behind Israel. We saw it in the response to the Mevry Marmara incident where the president intervened actively to keep this from turning into a Security Council witch hunt. We saw it just last week when Egyptian troops had held back when the protesters stormed the Israeli embassy and Prime Minister Netanyahu couldn't get the Egyptians on the phone. Who made the phone calls? The Americans made the phone calls and six Israelis were saved perhaps with the moments of when the security would have been breached. I think the president is quite frankly perplexed that because I've spoken to people who work closely with him on Israel and his sense is that he's not anti-Israeli. Whenever he says anything, he's perceived to be anti-Israeli. Although his actions protect Israel's interests but urge Israel to move forward toward a negotiated settlement that can resolve this conflict in the longer term. But it seems to me that what we have is a combination of language that seeks to move Israeli actions and actions that consistently protect Israeli interests. And what I think is perplexing to the administration is the sense that rather than the actions speaking loudly and reassuring Israelis that these are done in order to protect Israeli interests, they take the words and they say, see, he doesn't have our interests at heart at all. Yeah, if I could just follow up on that. Specifically on this question that we spent most of our time talking about, either upgrading Palestinian status of the two options. The U.S. once again is putting itself in a position of isolation in the United Nations based on a principle. And the principle is that that peace, the peace process should go through negotiations between the two parties and not through New York. The U.S. has consistently done this in its support of Israel and has consistently isolated itself and I really don't see a difference in this administration's actions versus the actions of previous administrations. Thanks, George Condon with National Journal. Two questions. First, to Heather, could you elaborate on what you said, the hallway chatter on the debt crisis? What are the Europeans looking for from the president? What is he looking for? And secondly, to follow on Margaret's question, I guess a little pushback, presidents go there every year. Most of the speeches are eminently forgettable and as John suggested, most of the action has been in the by-lats. Well, you channeled them. But isn't the moment such that with all the issues that you talked about, that the stakes are raised for the president? Isn't the international community looking for some kind of leadership, something in this speech? Thank you. Very briefly, I think there is precious little that the administration can do regarding the European sovereign debt crisis. My critique, I think the administration was a bit slow to realize over the last 18 months the gravity of the situation. But I think really beginning with Chancellor Merkel's state visit here in June, where the president dedicated a lot of that conversation to the economic crisis. I think it was slowly beginning to wake up the administration that this is a great grave danger to the American economy. What Secretary Geithner's visit to Poland today does a couple of things. It raises the stakes enormously for what the U.S. can do, but again the gap is we can't, other than to urge Europe to take action. Now the problem is politically they are unable to take the steps necessary. And this month is going to be a really interesting month to watch as the 17 Eurozone members have to vote on the July 21st summit decisions where there seems to be absolutely lack of agreement whether they can do that or not. To suggest that the world's, the weight of the world, economic weight of the world is on Angela Merkel's shoulders is not an understatement. But politically the stars could not be more misaligned. Are you suggesting the President should give her a back rub? Big no comment. John you're naughty. But this is truly where, and this is again with all respect to the amazing events that are going on in the Middle East this one element will absorb us and there's very little the United States can do about it other than to hope that the Europeans as I think Geithner will come out and say get your act together. You had Christine Lagarde yesterday again, the dire consequences. The rhetoric is emergency, emergency, the political action cannot get there. So as I just said I don't wanna divert our conversation. Please, please watch this space because it is going to transform Europe and the transatlantic relationship substantially. If I give it a baseball analogy, if the European Sovereign Dead Crisis is a nine inning game we're only in about the second or third inning. This is going to be an extraordinary story. So stay tuned. Next President, we turn to back rubs. Transparency here at CSI. And on the issue of speeches there is a global crisis of a multifarious global crisis now that this is not necessarily a time where the world is looking for a presidential speech at the General Assembly to reshape things. I mean I worked for the UN for 12 years and for most of those years I got a chance to sit on the floor of the General Assembly during speeches and there are two that stick out for me out of that entire time.  I don't remember where he said but he received a standing ovation in the General Assembly which is unheard of for a head of state or government. I mean and this is after impeachment and a range of issues his last speech, it was extraordinary and the warmth in the room. And President Bush's speech in which he virtually declared war against Iraq and threatened the UN with irrelevance. I was on the floor to hear that too. Otherwise this is not the time to roll out a new initiative even if a new initiative is needed. And this is probably not the time for a new initiative because these crises whether it's the Arab Spring or the European debt crisis or what I consider to be a general kind of slow tectonic shift in power within multilateral institutions is playing out. These are playing out more slowly. So the speech is not the crucial issue here. The question maybe for Mark is, sorry, for Mark is do the Palestinians need to go, can they go, if they chose to, could they go directly to the General Assembly or do they need to go through the Security Council first? So and is there a sense that maybe the US is pushing them towards the General Assembly first? And then the two broader questions are first, if you could maybe John give an assessment of where you think the US standing is in the Middle East these days, sort of two years after the Cairo speech, after the whole Arab Spring and to what impact do you think Avito would have on that if any significant impact on sort of his broader effort to reshape the view of the United States. And then finally, it seems from where I said as a White House reporter that President Obama has sort of stuck his neck out for the Palestinians in being tough at least rhetorically on Israel in a way that was politically risky for him at home. And is there any sense that, and right now they're trying desperately to get the Palestinians not to do this, is there any sense that the Palestinians are being a little sort of slap in the face of the US after whatever it is that Obama has tried or maybe from their point of view he has not done all that much anyway? Maybe a quick answer to the technical question. The Palestinians could choose either to go the General Assembly route or the Security Council route. The Security Council route is full membership in the United Nations. The General Assembly route is increasing their status to non-member state. I was a bit surprised to hear that they decided to go the Security Council route and therefore force a US veto. And I would say that the US is not trying to push the Palestinians to the GA, but in effect trying to push the issue out of the UN. They would rather that neither of these questions come up. US standing in the Middle East has declined in the last two years for a number of reasons. One is there's a sense that the US hasn't been effectively doing what it's set out to do. There's a perception that hasn't been effective with Iran, that it hasn't been effective with Iraq, that it hasn't been effective moving toward Arab-Israeli peace. And so there's disappointment both in governments, that the US has not stood by its allies in the Arab Spring and among publics that the US has not plays active roles that should have promoting political reform. Added to this, certainly on the leadership level, is a perception that our budget situation means that looking forward, we're gonna be less consequential power than we've been. So I think if you look at everything, there is a perception that we are a waning influence on events, that we are not the positive influence that people had hoped we would be. That's not to say we've become inconsequential, it's not to say people have written us off, but I think you're seeing a number of countries thinking about supplementing their relationship with the United States. You've seen Turkey playing a more prominent role, and I just had a piece in our newsletter last week about Turkey's efforts to build ties with Saudi Arabia, which I think is partly about changing role for the United States and the sense of countries in the Middle East that have to build their alliances differently. As I said, it doesn't mean we're inconsequential, and I think this is a slide that began some time ago, but it's a slide that the president had hoped to arrest and has not been able to arrest. In terms of sort of Palestinian gratitude, I think the president's actions have gotten him anger on all sides and gratitude on none. I mean, the Israelis feel the president dislikes them. The Palestinians feel the president has gotten rolled by Prime Minister Netanyahu and has not been able to protect their interests, and there's a complaint that the United States still ends up being the Israelis lawyer instead of a mediator. That the president says he's going to do things and those things don't happen, and the sort of failure to make progress on settlements, which the president identified as a key goal, ended up not having a huge effect on Israeli settlement activity. I don't know an easy way to get out of this problem, but you have a really serious set of political challenges in the Palestinian community, which this president inherited, which aren't getting any easier to deal with. And again, I think that because we cover diplomacy, there's a huge interest in covering the diplomacy and because negotiations have often involved us when we think of tools available to the United States, people rush to negotiations. That's something we can do. We know how to set up negotiations and we know how to reserve the rooms at the hotels and we know how to get the conference facilities and all that stuff. We know how to do negotiations. When you say you have to affect Palestinian politics, you have to affect Israeli, you have to reassure the Israeli people. That's harder. And I think the instinct is we're gonna have negotiations because we know how to do it. And I think what we have to be much more creative on is how can we create the politics? Because, and I've said this I think before in one of your briefings, I can't remember any time in history when two sides have made peace, when at least one of those parties didn't believe there was both an urgency and a necessity to make that peace. And I look at these two antagonists and I don't see either side feeling there is either an urgency or a necessity to make a deal. And under those circumstances, you can have all the negotiations in the world but you can't get a peace deal. I'm afraid, I'm sorry, because I have to make a phone call before I roll out this wonderful study by Chai Malka next door in 20 minutes, I'm gonna have to run, but I would love to talk to all of you again soon. And thank you Andrew for this. Thanks John, thanks. Can I just really quickly, just a word on what John just said too, especially the last part of it. You know, after 12 years at the UN, I'm a relative newcomer to Washington and I'm struck at the extent to which the thinking here is what can we do and why can't we make these people change their views or why isn't the president making peace in the Middle East or why isn't he affecting this? And I think that we need to have a greater sense of the limits of external actors in conflict resolution as well. External actors can be extremely useful when, as John said, one of the, at least one of the parties, and it's often the need for the most powerful one to think this, or it could be either, feels an urgent need. But Washington can't move things if the situation isn't ripe and the time isn't right. Martin Klinks from the German Weekly did site. Two questions, one, considering the Palestinian-Israeli issue in the United Nations, when are we going to see the showdown? It's gonna be Friday in the next weekend or like in the case of the timetable and then to you Heather about the European crisis. You know, Geithner being in Europe and telling get your act together is probably as complicated as Europeans telling Congress get the act together. But what you might see in the upcoming days or weeks could also be an increase of the crisis because of a collapse of the German government. German government is deeply divided over the bailout issue. And you follow that intensely, intensively. So I don't know how they get out of this quagmire because it's, as you know, they have this coalition and the two parties have totally different standpoints and even inside the Christian Democratic Party is a huge division. On the first issue, which is a much easier question, I think the plan is for President Abbas after his speech and I think he's speaking on the 23rd to present his request to Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. Who knows then when it will happen? You know, there won't be a showdown next week. There will be a request next week and then it has to get on the Security Council agenda and the resolution needs to be drafted and so it will take some time. Is it gonna be in this session? Well, I mean, the Security Council meets on a rolling basis so there isn't a session question in the way there is with the General Assembly. The General Assembly, because there's such overwhelming support for it, could move fairly quickly. So if it takes a month or so for it to make its way through the Security Council to a US veto, and this has happened before on other issues, you can imagine within weeks the General Assembly could have a resolution, ready to go. And so that could happen soon after that. But no, there won't be a dramatic showdown during the general debate while the heads of state and government are there. And very briefly, I would be very respectful of every one's time and Martin, you and I can follow up on this later. You know, in some ways that the strains of this conversation of what John talked about, we know how to negotiate, we know how to talk and hold conferences and keep talking, but how do we affect the political process, whether that's in the Middle East, whether that's in Europe, whether that's here in our own country. This is exactly where we find our complexities. If there was a logical way forward, we would have found it. It's the political processes that have just stymied this and very true in German domestic politics, where there is a deep division about what to do and the responsibility of the German taxpayer for what they see as prolificate spending by the periphery. But this is also across Europe and it's not just North, South, the Northern States versus the periphery. It is young and old. We are going to see it's European versus sort of a immigrant, anti-immigrant. We are going to see these tensions play out across Europe, which is accelerated by the economic crisis. I'll talk to you later about my views on the German government, but again, what the chancellor's, what decisions she takes, whether how this will unroll, it will have an enormous impact on the coalition government and in German politics, quite frankly, for the next decade. So the stakes are extremely high. That would be a very dramatic move, especially from the podium of the General Assembly. I don't have any sense of that. And as I recall, there was some pushback from the Iranian judiciary that might slow that process down, too. So it's not entirely clear that something like that would happen. I'm Armad Hani, USA Today. The Saudi aspect of this were, they basically really laid it out in real clear terms of what the consequences would be of a US veto. Your sense of how serious that is and how grave the consequences would be for a fraying of that relationship for the US. Not an expert on Middle East politics, Middle East diplomacy, but I can say just from observation that the relationship is frayed in other ways. I mean, this would be a continued fraying in some ways of the relationship. And I think that John struck a very interesting note when he talked about the Turkish effort to increase relations with Saudi Arabia. I think Saudi Arabia has serious concerns about a perception of abandoning the Mubarak and Arab allies was concerned about even US statements about Bahrain and we saw that the Saudi sent troops there is geopolitically concerned about the rise of Iran in the region, especially with the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime. And so if anything, but the Saudis are surprisingly and interested in Middle East peace and feel that at an Arab League summit some years ago, they put out a reasonable process that has been rebuffed and bring it up on a regular basis. So no, this would be serious for the Saudis, but the Saudis also have geostrategic reasons to remain in a close relationship with the United States. And I'm sure they will balance that. Sure, just a really quick point. I was thinking about this as Heather was talking and I always think about this in terms of the United Nations. And this is my sense of multilateral politics and I actually don't use the word diplomacy much because within multilateral institutions, it's so legislative, it's more, I think better characterized as politics and it might be esoteric, but we've been doing bilateral relations between countries and the manner we're doing it since the beginning of the Westphalian state, 1648 or so. We've been doing this form of multilateralism since the end of the Second World War. And we're seeing the growth pains of it. We're seeing it in the EU, which is an extraordinary success in so many different ways, but has serious structural problems. We see it in the United Nations as well. And so I just urge a longer term view toward multilateral activity. I think that we're still in the early stages of learning how to do this. Successes in the UN certainly failures, but it's something that we as states, and when I say we now, it's not just the United States, are only beginning to grapple with dealing with effectively. Thank you. Thank you all very much for coming today and we'll be in touch. Thanks.


Hey, this is Brett and this 2015 Chevy Silverado 2500 Crew Cab Short Box High Country is stock number 13598Z. I am here at Summit Automotive in Fond du Lac, Wisconsin, you're new and used heavy duty truck headquarters. This 2015 Chevy Silverado 2500 has the 6.6 liter Duramax diesel engine. It is the LML engine, which puts out 397 horsepower, and it's paired up with the Allison Heavy Duty 6-Speed Automatic Transmission. This truck has been fully safety and inspected by our service shop per the state of Wisconsin inspection process, has a fresh oil and filter change, all the fluids have been checked and topped off, and it is 100% ready to go. I'm going to go all the way around in this video, inside, underneath, start it up and take a look under the hood to give you the most accurate representation possible. The black clear coat is the color and I shoot all my videos in 4K, so if you have HD capabilities, turn them on out because it is your best way to check out the quality, condition, options, and cleanliness of the truck before seen in person. Going down the driver's side here, the box is in fantastic condition. The doors and cab are in great shape as well, I didn't see any major dents or dings on there for 2015, this thing is in fantastic condition. If you like the video, you can subscribe to my YouTube channel, which is youtube.com slash Summit Auto. Click the bell notifications and you'll get updates in the videos I do each and every day here at Summit Automotive, as well as one of the largest catalogs of video walk arounds on YouTube, so that's pretty sweet too. This one comes with mayhem 20 inch chromed alloy wheels. They do have just a little bit of pitting on there, nothing too bad. This is some Canadi Trail Hog AT tires, these are 35 by 12 and a half R20LTs, and I would say they have probably about 80, 85% of the tread left on them. Frame and underbody is exceptionally clean on this truck. This is a two owner out of Texas and North Carolina, so it's never really seen snow. Clean title history and clean car facts, no accidents or anything like that. Front bumper is in fantastic condition, didn't see any major dents or dings in there. Does have the front bumper parking sensors, factory fog lights, and you do get the chrome trimmed grille with that high country package. The hood is in fantastic shape as well, didn't see any major dents or dings on there and the passenger side front fender looks really good too. Passengers side wheel is in nice condition, no major scuffs or scrapes on there and as you go down this side of this 2015 Chevy Silverado, take note of how clean that body is, how reflective and remember like that paint is. I take these HD videos so if you are far away or even if you're close by and you just cannot make the trip down, but you're still interested in purchasing the truck, you can see the truck, hear the truck, and have confidence in the vehicle that you're looking at. Before you even get here, so when you do get here there's no surprises and you can make a smart and informed buying decision from wherever you're at and if this video helps you make that decision let your salesmen know that you saw the video that it was helpful and that Brett sent you. Back wheel is in excellent shape and the back tires look like they have about 60% of the tread left on them. Once again, take a look at how clean that frame is, very little to no corrosion. The whole underbody is like that, I mean the exhaust almost looks new. Really clean under here, one reason to buy this truck, the underbody, this thing is like new underneath. Has the factory chrome step bars, rockers all look really good. Coming around to the back, rear bumper is in great shape, you get the full towing package which includes a receiver hitch four pin and seven pin wiring, the rear bumper steps and the rear bumper parking sensors. Even the hitches like new, this truck is crazy. Tailgate is in excellent shape, has a locking tailgate, shock down assist so it's never going to slam on you, comes with a better built tool box and a spray and bed liner, you get some side box tie downs and that bed liner goes on to the tailgate which is really nice as well, shuts nice and smoothly. Just a really, really clean truck, back wheels in about the same condition as the rest and down the rest of the side once again, doors are in excellent shape. You do get the telescopic tomeirs, built in directional signals, LED lights, these fold out, telescope out, fold in, inside the high country package gives you the brown leather bucket seats, no rips, no tears, smells very clean inside, you get the high country stitched into the headrest, get the kind of light gray piping on there, factory all-weather floor mats, auto headlamps turned out four-wheel drive, factory brake controller tilt, telescopic steering wheel, power windows, power locks, power mirrors, memory driver seat and these mirrors do power fold in, I was like showing both sides so you know that both sides are working properly, take a quick look at the back seats, they are just as clean as the front seats, no rips or tears back here, it does have the latch, child safety system, front and child car seats you may have, power sliding rear window with the built-in rear frost, headliners like new, get some all-weather floor mats back here, carpeting, very nice, side current airbags on the front seats and the inside and bottoms of the doors all look fantastic, there is the VIN sticker and the tire and loading information sticker, we'll hop inside check out the miles, the radio and everything that this truck has to offer on the interior, as you can see this one has 37,000 and 73 miles, you do get the digital speedometer, it does have a compass display on there as well, instrument cluster is very nice and clean, comes with the heated leather wrap steering wheel, cruise controls and information center controls on the right, I'm sorry Bluetooth and information center controls on the right, cruise controls on the left, forward collision warning control and your heated steering wheel button, get the Allison 6-speed automatic transmission shifter there and this one has the Chevy my link system, this one does have the factory navigation system, there's highway 41 so you can see that is working nicely and the city of Fond du Lac there, you also get AM, FM and Sirius XM radio capabilities, this one does have a CD player, dual climate controls, heated and cooled seat buttons, power pedal stability control, that's for your cargo lamps, that's also how you turn on your LED side lights in the mirrors, parking sensors, you can turn those off and on lane departure and your factory exhaust break, down here you get three USBs, two 12 volt power points and a 110 volt, 150 watt plug-in, storage and cup holders, passenger side format and seat are in fantastic condition, I don't think this truck's ever been smoked in and once again the headliner is in excellent shape and this one does come with the factory sunroof, home link buttons, map lights, power sling, rear window button and sunroof controls, on-star and SOS buttons in the rear view mirror, we'll start it up and take a look under the hood, starts right up, no check engine lights or anything like that, does have the Bose sound system, there are those LED side lights, they are super bright, I would personally like to thank you for checking out the video today and hopefully from this HD video you've been able to verify the quality condition options and of course cleanliness of this truck inside and out, under the hood we have the 6.6 liter Duramax diesel engine and javae is very clean, runs very smooth, once again this truck has been fully safe and inspected by our service shop, has a fresh oil and filter change, all the fluids have been checked and topped off and this truck is 100% ready to go, there is the emissions sticker and I would highly recommend this truck for make quality and condition standpoint, I don't think you'll find too many 2015's as clean as this one and see more pictures of this truck, one of our other 550 new use cars, trucks, SUV's, Minimans, Wranglers, you name it, we've got a combat website right there, summitauto.com, full pictures and descriptions of every single vehicle, all at summitauto.com, if you want to check out more HD videos you can go to youtube.com slash summitauto, click the bell notifications, I'll get updates on the videos I do each and every day here at Summit Automotive, in fact in a second you'll see a link to subscribe to my YouTube channel on the upper left, links to more Chevy 2500 truck videos like this one, the upper right link to this vehicle on our website, lower left, any links to one of our latest YouTube videos in the lower right, click those, check us out, we're super excited to help you with this ultra clean 2015 Chevy Silverado 2500 crew cab, short box, high country and black crew filled, thanks again for checking out the video, remember to like, subscribe and share on the video, on the YouTube channel, I really appreciate it, thanks again.


I'm here to confirm that New York will be home to one of Amazon's new headquarters and more than 25,000 new, high-paying jobs over the coming decade with room to grow. I'd like... Well, you know who isn't sharing? Newly elected Democrat Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Slamming the tax breaks, Amazon's getting in a series of tweets. Democrat strategist Robin Biral thinks she's right to be a little skeptical of this deal while market watcher Melissa Armo thinks this is a great deal, period. Melissa, why? Well, first of all, I live in New York and this will provide more revenue for the city. The city needs money coming in so badly. Mayor de Blasio has spent so much money since he's been mayor in the city and we need tax revenue coming in. It also will provide jobs and I have to laugh, Charles. She thinks that people are going to get pushed out of Queens that are regular people, working people, because all of a sudden all these high-end people are going to buy luxury condos and all these luxury condos are going to come up in Queens. That is show laughable, Charles. People will live in Manhattan that make a lot of money and they will commute to their jobs in Queens. It doesn't mean all the people that work and live in Queens are going to lose their homes. That's crazy town. Robin? It's so easy to dismiss this Congresswoman-elect because she's the youngest ever to be elected to Congress at, I believe, 29 years old and I've been a frequent critic of hers but she brings up some valid points. This does put a drain on the local municipalities. Let me explain why. These tax cuts are enshrined for sometimes 15 to 20 years and they present a huge impact to the local infrastructure. That's specifically what she's talking about. You've seen large-scale developments of subdivisions and big boxes where they just absolutely destroy the roads and they often don't pay for those with environmental impact fees and development impact fees and yet they're getting tax breaks. She's right to criticize it but when you look at it from a cost of benefit analysis in the long term it does pay off but I get where she's coming from, Charles. Melissa, there are neighborhoods in New York that I never thought would be quote-unquote gentrified where I never thought a brownstone that may have been a hundred grand, not even a hundred grand in 1980 would be gone for $10 million now. People feel like they do get pushed out eventually and we know in the journal today saying that there was almost a 300% explosion at inquiries for condos in that Queens area so ultimately if people start to who make 150 grand start to buy homes there could that do something with respect to income and equality could push out people who've lived there and by the way $1.5 billion that's a lot of money and it could haunt someone politically at some point. All you have to do is look at the economy right now in Seattle where Amazon has its headquarters and look at how much that's helped that city. I mean seriously it's going to help New York, it's going to help Virginia, that's where the other second headquarters is and they were all ecstatic about it down there. Bloomberg is for this, Mayor de Blasio is for this, Governor Cuomo is for this and they're all Democrats and they're for it and I'm telling you it's good for New York. I hear what you're saying about sometimes there will be people that come in and but the property values might rise a little bit but it's never going to be so much that the negatives overweigh the positives. It is good for New York, it is huge for New York City. I'm telling you I live here and I'm telling you right now people are not going to get pushed out of their homes. People that own real estate right now Queens are jumping up and down because their real estate is going to increase. Robin do you find it interesting though there are a lot of conservative groups who have actually come out against this deal you know they love the idea that maybe Amazon will build in New York but the $1.5 billion tax credits that $300 million cash credits you know they think this could be a form of corporate welfare. Yes and that's my concern as well and you know in some respect she almost sounded like a Republican here because she's talking specifically about the tax burden. Libertarian probably. Well libertarian you're correct in that but she's talking about the tax burden and it's a little unfair to some of the adjacent property owners who are paying basically to subsidize all of these development impact fees that are going to be incurred because of this immense large-scale development. So and what we're seeing basically are just growing pains they'll experience growing pains they won't reap the financial benefits for at least five years but look at what it's done for Nikki Haley when she was governor of South Carolina with Boeing and BMW she got a lot. Of course some people think Scott Walker was hurt a little bit politically because of Foxconn. Hey thank you both very much great seeing you. Well we got growing concerns over President Trump's shake up at the Justice Department and we'll discuss that next.


This research aimed to analyse the possibility of estimating and automatically mapping large areas of soybean cultivation through the use of Modi's images, utilising geographic object-based image analysis, Geobia, and data mining, DM, and achieved a Kappa coefficient classification accuracy of 0.76. This article was authored by Carlos Antonio de Silva Jr., Marcos Rafael Nani, José Francisco de Oliveira Jr., and others.


Hi, I am Tony, your general advisor on the Virtual Linguistics Campus. Here is our monthly update. As of December 2023, we have more than 9,900 active users on the VLC with about 10 new registrations per day, but also 10 fake or bought registrations, which are of course blocked and removed. As shown on the map, our users come from more than 175 countries. You can see the top 10 countries to my right. As more than 1,000 users have not entered their country of origin on registration, this statistic can of course still be improved. So what's new? Direct access to the specialized VLC GPT is now possible in all courses and, as you may have noticed, all learning units are gradually getting new icons that are generated with AI support. And the question of the month? Who will become user number 10,000? And which country will he or she represent? We are eager to know. See you next month, I'm Tony.