of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN dot com. The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento toll free at one eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight or internationally at seven two seven eight seven three seven six one eight now Larry Pezzavento. Okay looking good Billy Ray feeling good Lewis. We are going to take a look at the Treasury bond market folks. We were watching it yesterday because the low that we made down there at 129 was an exact A B equal CD pattern had taken out the previous low by two ticks that was done about four weeks ago and we said get ready because this might be an explosive move and of course the market rallied up but we were not able to get in to begin with and what we decided to do this is a reason why I'm going to little housekeeping here is I sent a video out whenever I see a trade I say this is what we should be looking for and what I said was look for the first three eight two retracement that you get now these bonds rallied over a thousand dollars before they made that three eight two retracement this was right before the opening and as you can see it was a perfect guardly at a three eight two retracement there's your A B C D you went two ticks lower than the three eight two and off to the races it went it's up almost two thousand dollars and as you can see it's a flagpole formation just absolutely straight up usually highly indicative of more is to come and we of course had a very long term goal here on the bonds at 138 to 139 we're trading at 132 and change right now so you know it doesn't take long with a couple of bank failures here and there where you could get to these levels without any trouble but that's when I said when I say that I described this pattern very clearly because I asked several people did I do it correctly yes you did well some people said well I never I stopped watching it well folks you're in the trading business if you're going to be in front of your machine at least put a beeper on as you get closer to these things so that you can get to them and see that yeah that's what they're doing they're they're getting to those numbers that seem to be you know really really important now by the same token now we had another one today that's very interesting and that is the one that we were watching here in the end of the week and I wanted to get this up to show you this is the same type of situation where I send these out as they're being formed there you know it's before they're formed but the this was after the fill came in and we were looking to buy the wheat down at 411 and excuse me 611 and we got to 611 and a half so anything under 12 for 612 triggers that and we've got Carlos from Mission Texas on the line Carlo what can I do for you that was going to be my next subject is the Russell yes Larry good morning how are you I'm very good my friend what can I do for you well I showed last night around three o'clock in the morning Texas time the Russell with one contract Larry and I'm looking at the bounce here so I need to know how about what will you think about it if I am about to close this because I fear for bounce well I don't see much of a bounce coming what I would do did you sell it in the early part of the day when it was rallying strongly up at the 618 level last night Larry yeah okay well you did the right thing that's what that's what it was doing what I would do Carlo this has the potential to be very bearish and as you can see from this chart you can see the three lower highs we've had here this is the one three five pattern but the most important thing Carlos if you look at this chart you'll see that we had three times in the past three weeks where we had exact 382 retracement we never went above it and then we had the big break and then we had a slight rally back on Monday and then the big break here on Tuesday if we close badly today anywhere near where we are right now this sets up a tremendous move to the downside so if you put your stop at break even you've got the or maybe a small profit $100 or something but it's got the potential to be something really really big I mean look how look how this is one remember I showed two charts yesterday of why the stock market looks so bearish and the first one was this Russell because it's the Russell 2000 this is small companies that have a hard time getting credit when interest rates go up and their sales can fluctuate quite a bit and then also I'm going to show after we get done here the John Jones transportation showing you the same thing that there was something you know really seriously wrong with this thing so that's why I think that you ought to you know give it a little bit of room I mean it's not bouncing very much I mean it's just a very very small bounce so far great well thank you Larry I hope that helps yeah I hope it helps thank you very much and I really uh looking to get uh listen to you and hear from them thank you Carl thank you remember one thing my friend I'm often I'm often in doubt but always wrong so just be careful to put the stop in okay yes very very important thank you okay good all right let's take a look here you have your opinion thank you so much thank you very much we're going to look at the transportation now because that was one thing we were again looking at on Monday these are things that I shared with the folks over in Las Vegas on Thursday but you'll know on Wednesday you'll notice here that the same thing it looks almost like the Russell has a little bounce today and then of course rolling over again you have the big abcd pattern completing here and then we go up to the 50 percent retracement and it took just about uh three and a half weeks to get there and then look you quickly give up most of it this is telling you folks this is the transportation index this is airlines railroads trucking delivering a goods all that stuff and if that's slowing down that means there's not a lot of stuff going on out there even though the rest of the market doesn't look too bad I mean some of these things have actually done pretty well from a bullish standpoint that's for sure as a perfect example of that let me let me just show you one of the trades that that we were doing for the folks over at the Las Vegas I promised to do a trade today for them and I wanted to bring this one up which is the this is Microsoft and I want to get it up here because this was the the trade for today I'll get it up here so you'll be able to see it and I really thought the top was in I didn't I thought it might go a tiny bit higher but I said to sell it at 305 or better it opened it at 30670 the high was 30910 and now it's trading at around 303 I believe but because of this abcd pattern that was here I mean this is just absolute perfection and if you add this little distance to the pattern it takes you right up to 308 so now you're in a situation where you're risking virtually nothing and that's that was another one that was really good now the first trade that we were watching of course was mr. Appel who's down by the well and we'll take a look at that one because here's one that we missed by about 40 cents and I'll get this up here we were trying to sell apple you'll notice we had a beautiful three drive to a top pattern right up here at 170 and change I actually shaded it by 30 cents to think that I would be sure to sure to get in but they still miss me by 30 cents and now the market is backed off three dollars from that level we still might get a chance to get it but that's how we set it up these patterns are for your protection folks because they only work part of the time and that's the main thing that you want to be looking at as you watch some of these things unfold because it's it's not how much money you make folks it's how much money you don't lose and that's where the key lies to all of this stuff right here we're having the grain markets are getting massacred one more time today and we'll be right back currencies commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe which is why it's a great time to try out teddy keg stats tiger forex report teddy keg stat breaks down the forex markets every monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures forex stocks and options teddy releases his weekly tiger forex report every monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs including the dollar index the euro dollar pound dollar dollar swiss dollar yen as well as many more and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year t bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously when you sign up for the tiger forex report you also gain instant access to teddy 60 minute webinar archive he just hosted forex strategies and fundamentals what is behind the tiger forex report for all the details and to start your 30 day tiger forex report subscription today visit the front page of tfnn.com tfnn educating investors steve rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master steve won the prestigious timer of the year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 finishing at number two for the year an amazing accomplishment steve rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his mastering probability newsletter steve's award-winning newsletter mastering probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon sign up for steve's market newsletter mastering probability and you'll receive access to seven of steve's educational webinars absolutely free at tfnn all our newsletters come with a 30-day money back guarantee so you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit tfnn.com and try mastering probability 30 days risk-free today tfnn educating investors are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio tom o brian is here to help tom o brian has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to td ameritrade network and cnbc tom o brian found a tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get tom o brian's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at tfnn.com tfnn educating investors so i posted the chart yesterday this is exactly when it was happening if you remember we were seeing a perfect a b cd pattern there a b cd it was 13 bars up and these are eight minute bars so it took a little over half an hour uh yep and then if you see same thing right up to the exact level at 4206 and that's where we sold it now the reason why we sold it there was because you had perfect symmetry the 64 dollar question is how did i know that was going to happen no chance in hell would i ever know that folks not a chance in heck but all i can tell you is that that pattern works roughly about 60 percent of the time now how would i know whether i was wrong or not well if i'm in it for 13 bars and two or three bars later i'm already above this level it tells me that something is seriously wrong so i exit the trade it's a failed pattern and i move on this one happened to break and it broke very hard today but it stopped right where it should have 61 percent of the range that we had on friday the dow jones industrial average stopped exactly to the exact tick of the 78 percent retracement of the low on thursday so these numbers are there these algorithmic traders are out there using them so don't fade them folks because these things work they don't work all the time but boy when they do work you know they work pretty well and that's the whole secret to what we're watching here very very important to watch what's going on especially with the rustle the way that it is and some of these other patterns that are there they're just they're lined up and then you see this big move we're having in bonds you know it's really really quite spectacular now i want to talk just a tiny bit about this seasonal that's out here called uh sell in may and go away well we have uh from carcin research they were kind enough to uh send me a thing on this because this is only a 10-year study folks but look at this in the last 10 years if you had sold in may and gone away you would have lost nine out of 10 that's what happened now that's what happens with the cycle stuff they have outlier events where this occurs but remember don't just focus on a seasonal just because it says sell in may go away have some type of another another interest to do it like uh you know a pattern that's really interesting like the like the s and p pattern that we were looking at or the dow Jones pattern that we were looking at those were telling you that yes there's a possibility of that and then when you add to it that you have the divergence that you have with the russell and then especially with the dow Jones transportation which means the movement of goods that's what you're looking at and at the same time you're seeing the the price of the bonds that everybody given the last rights on monday on tuesday that everybody's left the funeral because these bonds have just taken off again it just didn't take very long it was just that big a b c d happening right before our eyes and if you missed it you had a nice 382 retracement and boom you can see what happened after that that's pretty much what you're what you're looking at now we're seeing a real you know more sell off in the grains we've got new lows and we just now we hit uh uh 6 10 and a half i saw that we have an order we had an order to buy which we did at 6 11 and what we're doing now is we have our stop now at 5 99 it may or may not work but again it gets us to be a farmer for 500 bucks we don't have to have any combines we don't have to own the land don't have to lease the land or anything all we have to do is buy a futures contract and we're a farmer and the difference is we don't have to be a farmer by the end of this show or i could close it out right now you can't do that if you're a farmer you got too much responsibility but this pattern shows you that the seasonal for selling may go away which is really one of the strongest ones over the past 150 years for the last 10 years which remember since 2009 and forward we've been in a tremendous tremendous bull market so maybe that's what skewed it so but uh all i do is i look at the patterns and if i see a pattern that tells me yes there's a possibility that this could roll over that's what i'm looking for and that's all it was telling us today and it might only last one day my last two days but we don't know for sure and as i always say no one else does either so that's the main thing you know to pay attention to as you're looking at some of these things that are that are happening and believe me there's a lot of things that are happening that's for sure now i wanted to spend just a tiny bit of time on the crude oil complex because we had Tim Moore on yesterday Mike Moore on and he was in very very negative to the interest of the crude oil markets for for several different reasons and i wanted to bring that up here to show you the main thing that he was telling us to be careful of and you'll see here as we bring this up here only take a minute but this was the whole ballpark because we've broken in the last two days we've broken you know well over eight dollars a barrel from this 382 level that we hit last week and of course here is where the the folks from uh saudi arabia drop production well prices are you know down in here now and they still drop production so dropping production did not help the price it actually hurt the price so we're going to find out what's happening over there very very shortly by the way my guest today will be jeff huge of alpha insights who has been quite bearish on this market and i can see from some of the charts that he sent up that he has maintained that position of you know for quite some time and one other chart that uh tim was time mic was time enough to show i've got tim on my line on my mic i was talking to tim bossed earlier today but you'll see here he'll be back soon as a guest but you can see this beautiful cycle formation here we have the perfect 135 pattern we have this little tiny bit of a rally and now this has failed this is now a failed 135 pattern folks because when you stop exactly at that number and it doesn't hold just like the 50 didn't hold or the 618 the 786 didn't hold that means you're in a bear market and you've got to get ready to stand aside at least don't try to pick a bottom try to find a way to get short look for a 382 pattern a small abcd and that's what you're looking for just like we had in the s and p just a few minutes ago up at the 4028 level that was a nice little abcd on a five minute chart intraday now maybe it's the things going to close really strongly today i don't know but if it closes badly we were down over 500 points in the doubt one time and if we close down over 600 this is going to get pretty nasty because it's trapped a lot of people up in here and they're going to have to make a decision pretty quick and remember speaking of pretty quick we have the Federal Reserve out there tomorrow and you know how much they like to play these markets so get ready for anything because it probably will happen that's what we're almost absolutely sure of we have one more chart to share to share with you and that is the hold on one second here that is the chart of give me this is the chart of the crude oil market excuse me the wheat market because our friend jeff over in new jersey thought that we were going to be going lower in the though just a second here there it is right here you'll be able to see it you'll recognize it by his signature black background but you can see you have a big abcd measuring all the way down here below six dollars and remember folks up here it was trading at $13 a bushel and now we're half that price and nobody wants it this is what we call an oversold condition we'll be right back with jeff huge of alpha insights the gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the london otc market the us futures market and the shanghai gold exchange the gold report tom obrien publishes his weekly gold report every monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the xAU hui gdx the dollar bonds the south african rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to tom obrien's gold report newsletter now at tfnn.com everything in the universe is governed by the fibonacci sequence this mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market to stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of sign up for the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter at tfnn.com when you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader larry pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust larry's analysis after all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking expect notifications from larry on market movement you need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30 day money 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and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com okay we're back folks and we're speaking with jeff huge of alpha insights and behold the bull market tell us what you're looking at here jeffrey hurry how are you i'm very good by the way chart in our weekly publication called alpha insights review and outbook and we entitled it behold the 2023 bull market you know contrary to popular opinion the bull market which most people believe but has produced these you know nine to 20 percent returns in the major indexes every has really been quite tame if you take a look at the average stocks performance and we've looked at two major indexes the s and p 500 on an equal weight basis and also the value line geometrically weighted index which is a very broad but equally weighted index as well they're only up about 2.6 percent and that is in fact in line with the average performance going back to 1928 according to data provided by yardenny research is this yeah he does great research by the way opinion yeah ed yardenny's been around a long time and he is pretty sharply let's talk about the internals here jeff because you do a great job in describing you know some of the things that are actually going on internally in the market that sometimes we don't see so please tell the folks what you're looking at here as far as the diverging negativity yeah absolutely so we look at three measures of internal health in the market and what we do is we again equal weight the s and p 500 and we're looking at in the top frame the breadth of uh of advancing issues so net advancing issues and what we're seeing is that the five week moving average of net advancing issues actually made a lower high at the most recent peak on uh april 18th actually and so we've now reversed back into negative territory as of earlier this morning and that negative divergence is is pretty glaring at this point it suggests to us that we probably have a major reversal to look forward to in terms of price in the index and that is also being confirmed by momentum as well and here again we use a five week rsi oscillator to gauge the short intermediate term momentum and we made a much lower high at the recent april highs and in fact have reversed significantly below the median line which is a bearish regime and then finally we look at net advancing volume in the bottom frame and again we try and look at a five week moving average this past week we're actually below one so the ratio is 0.89 looking at uh up volume to down volume but the five week moving averages moved back from its recent highs of around three to about one and a half and that's down from the uh earlier highs this year which occurred in january early february which uh were around nine times and so you know a much more significantly lower high which again creates this negative divergence which typically occur right around major turning points in the market well this next chart has a mystery written all over it from my perspective and i had not heard of this call the uh the tail risk now i'm not sure what that means so uh but remember i'm a futures trader so we don't go into the uh exotic stuff but what what does this mean jeff yeah you know the skew index larry is uh something produced by the cpo e uh uh in in the options markets right and so what we're really looking at is um this 30 day volatility shift here and what skews basically suggesting and let me put it in this perspective we're at about 138 now normal is 100 so uh at 100 the risk or you know the market isn't pricing in a lot of tail risk tail risk would be like some sort of a black swan right and uh back in um mid 2021 we hit a record high at about 170 on the skew index and we've been coming down pretty steadily since but what happened in march right around the time that we saw the first bank failure was still a con valley bank uh going down as we saw a big spike through that downtrend and that suggests that the market is now beginning to price in a higher probability of a black swan um so they're pricing in tail risk and so the price of skew is advancing and in fact most recently uh especially with this uh recent bank of failure we've seen a breakout to a new recovery high and skew and what this is basically telling us is that tail risk is very high today and it's growing and so options players are beginning to price in a black swan event okay now can you define what a black swan event is and we have another question behind that one because i i know who the guy is i've read his book telly but i still never quite understood i think it's just a surprising thing that no one's expecting is that what that means exactly it's just basically something that an unpredictable negative surprise uh or positive surprise uh would be a white swan but the black swan would really be um you know something that's unexpected and negative and would cause volatility to expand dramatically and one of those um that's lurking this is somewhat expected but but maybe not everybody expects the u.s. debt default situation that's currently being debated in congress and uh being pushed back on by the president but it's going to be resolved in the eleventh hour well what if the black swan is that it isn't and that the united states government defaults on its debt which means that basically they won't pay interest payments on your treasuries uh until this is resolved i mean it might be something that occurs for 30 days or three months or something uh but and eventually they'll you know come back and make good on everything but this is not something the market is expecting and if that were to occur that would be an extreme version of a black swan probably the most extreme yeah you know most amazing thing about that book that i read about that black swan that nicklas to lee wrote do you know what is you know what is the name of a group of black swans what it's referred to as a bank i don't a bank yeah it's it's a bank you heard of a herd and you know all the other stuff with cattle and sheep and all his other stuff the flock of flock of birds but uh blacks one a group of blacks one is known as a bank i i said that's that's that seems a little off the book that's what it said right in the book one other question uh when jp morgan this is something that i done you know i'm going to ask you for because i don't follow this kind of stuff but when jp morgan takes over a bank like this place over in los angeles do they take over all of the assets some of the assets i mean they have to be built into some humongous profits because they're buying stuff probably at five or ten cents on the dollar aren't they i don't think it's that big of a discount but they are getting a discount on the deposit and they have a risk sharing agreement with the fdic on the loan since the 50 50 shares so if any of the loans default jp morgan's only on the hook for half of the risk the fdic is going to bail out the rest okay that's what i need to let's move on to the next chart i'm glad you're on today because these are questions that i have a little bit of it oh we got a break coming up here but we get back we're going to be talking about this uh diverging vix index because there doesn't seem to be much fear in the market right now is that correct well it certainly was the case on friday at the close well and if we look at the vix today it's moved up significantly yes that's for sure we're going to take a break here i believe uh the clock is on the wall so we'll be back in a few minutes with jeff huge of alpha insights stay with us folks you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by basal chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices get the opening call newsletter by basal Chapman and your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio tom o'brien is here to help tom o'brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to td ameritrade network and cnbc tom o'brien found a tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get tom o'brien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at tfnn.com tfnn educating investors biotech is booming but for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade labu or labd directions daily s and p biotech three times bull and bear etfs visit directioninvestments.com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at<PHONE_NUMBER> the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor foresight fund services llc this program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american ntsx under the symbol vgz okay we're back folks speaking with jeff huge of alpha insights and we're going to be talking about volatility yes we are larry one of the things that we've been noticing in the vix is the simple fact that while it was plumbing its recent loads the volatility of volatility or the vvix index was actually making higher lows and we've looked back over over many many years and we're just illustrating in this chart over the course of the past year or so but there have been many instances where we've seen those positive divergences in the vvix and it's preceded a rally in the vix and oftentimes a spike in the vix and and our view at this point is that we've reached a level that we haven't seen really in well over a year maybe looking back into 2021 and i think that we're going to see a spike in the vix that actually carries to a level greater than 40 percent we haven't printed over 40 percent in two years uh we haven't really had a panic but i think that this banking crisis is um just developing it is the beginning not the end despite what some of the experts and and even jamie diamond himself at jp morgan said yesterday i don't think it's over and i do think the fed will continue to remain tighter for longer and rates will remain higher for longer than most people anticipate and as a result we could continue to see um you know uh economic growth uh stifled and frankly i'm concerned about stagflation and with all of those things together it doesn't surprise me one bit that we're seeing a big spike up in the vix today it was up over 20 percent at one point but i think that we'll see the vix carry somewhere north of 40 percent before it tops this time wow that's a 40 percent that's going to that will put some fear in the folks that's for sure let's take a look here uh when you match this vix up with the highs and lows of the market it's pretty apparent that something usually happens at these points it's true we've uh looked at this pattern ongoing for the last five years and if we just kind of take a closer look uh or kind of zoom in on what's happened over the last year itself we could see that each time that the vix has gotten down to around 20 percent or low we've been in the neighborhood of a tradeable market low but when the vix shoots up to um or i should say a tradeable market high um so you know when the vix gets down to around 20 percent that typically marks the high in the market and then when we get up to around 34 percent or so that's typically marked tradeable lows and so what we saw last week was a a spike to a new high uh in uh in the market actually yesterday's high was the high in the market and that was uh uh consistent with the low in the vix of around 16 percent and so you know from that we would determine that the s and p is very likely topping like it has in this pattern going back the last year and we would expect it to result in again a spike in the vix which should exceed 34 percent and in fact we've been saying uh like we said before we think something north of 40 percent this time well this next one says that's the most berry setup you've seen in august and the way it started uh today gee that means uh it's really of course it could reverse and close up on the day the way things go these days but this is a very very significant top it looks like because you make a slightly higher high and then reserve reverse the last two days actions in a matter of uh six or seven hours of trading that that's quite uh quite amazing that's exactly right the last time we saw a pattern develop of this sort of similarity uh took place in the first uh uh or mid august of uh of last year and when we topped on august 16th over the course of the subsequent three trading days uh we saw a similar sort of uh price action that we're seeing today this is happening more rapidly and it wouldn't surprise me to see a follow-through gap down tomorrow and if we did uh that would be consistent with what we saw back in the mid to late august where where we think we are in the Elliott wave count Larry is that we think we've just put in minor wave two of intermediate wave three of primary wave three down and what that means is that we are in the at the precipice of a third of a third of a third wave decline which we think could be a rather epic plunge to new lows we're looking for an initial decline into the you know 3000 area which should ultimately um take us down into the mid 2000s before things start to find their footing at a durable low or a tradeable low if you will and that might sound crazy to a few people but uh you know the same thing uh seems crazy in august when we were plumbing uh around 43 25 at the august peak and uh it took you know less than two months to get down to 3500 on the s&p 500 yeah but we really like you these charts are saying that we haven't really seen fear come in here since uh the covid thing which was you know four years ago believe it or not it's hard to believe it's been that long uh to go through now we've got a couple more charts that we want to get through and then you're going to join us on the second half of the show um for for for a trade what you see on the second half because we've got a couple questions that we'll answer but uh tell the folks um a little bit about your free newsletter and then also we never give you too much of uh oh i did something wrong bear with me here because i hit the wrong button and that's not a good thing to do and it's a trouble boy don't ever give an italian at uh mouse it's not it's not an easy thing to do i had such trouble with amazon these last couple days i oh my god don't ever go to service there because oh anyway let's move on tell us about the newsletter jeff yeah you know we publish a monthly newsletter it comes out on the first saturday of each month uh the next issue is slated for publication on saturday may and it promises to be a doozy uh we we do our best not to let down our subscribers we want to keep them engaged and interested and we do so by coming up with some very interesting content and so if you're interested in learning more about uh you know how we view uh the top down macro environment from an economic perspective and you want to get into our full analysis of the markets uh we lay it out in about 20 pages once a month in this newsletter the newsletter used to be free it's not free anymore uh but we do give a free preview so if you sign up to receive it and don't want to be a paid member you can get maybe the first four or five pages free and you know we're it's chock full of charts and and data and opinions and i know that's what people want to read so you know we don't pull any punches but if you do want the full monty i will cost you as little as 12 dollars a month now you can buy a annual subscription for $144 or 20 a month so that's an easy one for sure hey listen i want to have you back again at 230 and we'll have you on again soon folks let me tell you the most important statistic that i've found following this dude here for well over a year and a half he's only right about 33% of the time and he knocks the ball out of the park if you can do that you should listen to what this guy has to say that's that's what i have my two cents worth so we'll see at 230 how's that pal that sounds great thanks larry you bet jeff huge of alpha insights folks we're gonna take a little break here to pay a few bills and then we'll be right back if you're looking for 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tiger tv oh dear boys and girls i just brought up a chart here i hope you can see it in the tiger den it is a chart of crude oil and we were setting at a perfect abcd at the 61 percent retracement at 71 and change and this is the same number that mr mike more more analytics was talking to us about yesterday you can see the abcd lining up just absolutely spot-on and i think that if you look at it real closely and i'm going to get it up here again so that we can see it that we still haven't broken below it that number is 71 68 so far that has been the low but that's a double abcd pattern and also a 61 percent retracement this is the the absolute lowest possible risk you can have in trading folks because you have an abcd pattern completing right there at 71 68 and we're trading at 71 78 right now you only risk 40 cents so that's $400 and a contract that's worth 71 400 so that's uh that's a very very low risk now if it's right and this is a major bottom this could be a very very substantial low but here again your risk is only 40 pips these patterns have two things going for them they repeat over and over again okay and they have some degree of predictability and the key two words there are some degree and that's what you have to focus on is when you're wrong so if it goes below 71 20 you know that there's something wrong you take your uh take your uh lick your wounds a kick your uh your stuffed cat or whatever you have and move on to the next trade because that's all it is as a trade folks shake them off go on to the next one there's always going to be somebody on the corner to give you a handout if you're wrong on these things but if you stay short or stay long like these folks did with the silicone bank and the fed the reserve bank of los angeles and the signature bank of new york and all the others that are having trouble this is not good and uh you can still see those uh those banks from the uh uh nasdaq those those banks are in big trouble thank god for mr dr jim bartolioni that triggered that so we're going to take a break<PHONE_NUMBER> we'll see you on the next show occurring in exactly four minutes


Hello, welcome to this special CUBE Conversation. I'm John Furrier, your host of the CUBE here in Palo Alto, California. We're still remoting in, getting great guests in. Events are coming back. Next week we'll be at a bunch of different events and you'll see the CUBE everywhere. But this conversation is about network challenges in a distributed hybrid workforce era. We've got Atif Sayi, principal product manager, Edge Networking Solutions at Dell Technologies and Rob McBride, channel and partner sales engineer at Versa Networks. Gentlemen, thanks for coming in this CUBE Conversation. Thank you, John. Thank you, John. So first of all, I was sleep with the pandemic and now we're moving out of the pandemic. Even with Omnicron out there, we still see visibility into kind of back to work and events and it's, but it's clear hybrid environment, cloud hybrid work. This has been a huge opening of everyone's eyes around network security, provisioning, you know, unexpected disruptions around everyone being worked at home. Nobody really forecasted that, the fact that the whole workforce would be remote coming in. So again, put a lot of pressure on the network challenges over the past two years. How is it coming out of this different? What's your guys take on this?  Everyone was kind of taken by surprise in a way, right? What do we do? We don't know what to do at this moment. And you know, I go back and I remember a customer giving me a call, you know, when they were at first looking at, you know, your traditional WAN transformation and one of the change their branches to do something from an SD-WAN perspective into the pandemic. And their question to me was, Rob, what do I do? Or what do I need to start thinking about? Now, all of a sudden, to your point, right? Everyone now is no longer in the office and how do I get them to connect? And more importantly, now that I can maybe figure out a way to connect them, how do I actually see what they're doing and be able to control what they're actually now accessing because I no longer have that level of control as of them coming into the office. And so a lot of customers, you know, we're beginning to develop kind of homegrown solutions, look at various different things to kind of quick hot patches if you will, to address the remote workers coming in and things of that nature. And what we see in kind of progression through all this is as opposed to just solving, getting a user to connect into an environment that IT can provide continuity for, they started coming up with other challenges to the point of security.  So, you know, what do I do about that? And what are the things I need to kind of consider with respect to now I'm much more vulnerable because my branch estate has basically become much more diversified. And solutions and things that they're looking for regards obviously around security, connectivity. They've been challenged with addressing how do they unify their levels of visibility without over encumbering themselves and how they actually manage now this kind of much more kind of distributed kind of network, if you will, right? So things around, you know, looking at, you know acronyms around from like a ZTNA or, you know cloud security and all this fun stuff start coming into play. But what it points to is that the biggest challenge I think is had is how do they converge networking and security together and provide a ubiquitous and uniform policy architecture to identify their users to connect and access the applications that are relevant to the business and be able to have that uniformity between whether it's the branch for them being remote. And that's part of what we've kind of seen as this progression to the last two years and kind of solutions that they're looking for to kind of help them address that. It's almost like it's a good thing in a way it actually opens up the kimono and say, hey, this is the real world. We've got to prepare for this next generation. A tiff, I want to get your take because, you know, remember the old days we were like, oh yeah, we got to prepare for these scenarios where maybe 30% will be dialing on the VLAN or remotely. You know, it's not 30%, it was like 100%. So budgets aren't out of whack. And yet they want more resiliency at the edge, right? So one, I didn't budget for it, they didn't predict it. And it's got to be better, faster, cheaper and more secure. Yeah, yeah, so John, the difference is is that, you know, Dell, for instance, has already was already working towards this distributed model, right? The pandemic just accelerated that transformation. So when customers came to us and said, oh, we've got a problem with our workforce and our users being so geographically suddenly dispersed, you know, we had some insight that we could immediately lean on. We had already started working on solutions and building those platforms that can help them address those problems, right? Because we'd already done studies before this, right? We've done studies and we've come back on this whole work from home or remote office scenario. And the results were pretty unanimous in that customers or users were always complaining about, you know, application performance issues and, you know, connectivity issues and things like that. So we kind of knew about this and so we were able to proactively start building solutions. And so, you know, so when a customer comes, that's like Rob was talking about, you know, their infrastructure wasn't set up for everybody to suddenly move on day one and start accessing all the corporate resources where the majority of the organizations is accessing corporate resources away from campus, right? So we have solutions, we've been building solutions and we have guidance to offer these customers as they try to modernize their network and address these problems. Well, that's a great segue to the next talk track is, you know, what is a network, what is network modernization, right? So let's define that, if you don't mind, but while I got you guys here, you're both pros, get that sound bite, but then let's get into the benefits of the outcomes from what that enables. So if you guys want to take a stab at defining what is network modernization mean? I think there's a lot of definitions where it kind of depends on your point of view where you're responsible from a network or within the stack. You know, from a take obviously, you know, working from a vendor and with solutions that we provide, modernizations really around solutions that begin to look at more software-defined architectures and definitions to begin a level of decoupling between, you know, points of control, hardware and software and other kinds of points of visibility and automation. To the point where things are, let's kind of put an air quotes in a sense of being more digitized in a sense, like even how we're looking at things from a consumerization perspective, but looking at things that are much more cloud aware, cloud specific, cloud native, in-built automation, as well as in-built kind of analytics, where things are much more in a broader SDN kind of a construct would be a form of a definition from a modernization perspective. Now, to the other element of your kind of a question in regards to kind of the benefits that come as a result of this. So as customers have been in the last 24 months, looking at different solutions to address part of what we've been talking about, part of it is when you're looking at, whether it's like using a word like sassy, to kind of define, you know, how our enterprise is looking for ZTNA based solutions or cloud security to augment their overall needs, the benefits that they're finding are simplicity of management because they're now looking for more uniform solutions that can address secure access for remote workers, in addition to their own kind of traditional access as it relates to their offices, to better visibility, because as this uniformity of this kind of architecture, they're now able to actually really see the level of context, right? I can see you, John, as far as where you're coming in and accessing what applications on what devices. And now I have a means to actually apply a policy that matters to me as a business from an IT perspective to protect me as the business, but also ensure that you're actually authorized and accessing things that I have from an IT regulations perspective. So benefits in the summary are kind of like, in-bill automation better, you know, things get done faster, things repair on their own in a different way as a result of automation. Greater visibility now they have much more greater insights into what we are doing as users of the overall IT infrastructure and better overall control that's been ultimately simplified as a result of consolidation and unification. That's awesome insight, Tiff, what's your take on the benefits of network modernization? So I'd like to sort of double down on, you know, something Rob said, right? So the visibility, right? So enhanced visibility in layman's terms, that just means more insight. More insight means the ability to implement best practices around application usage, application performance. More insights means control that IT departments are needing. They need that to manage and address security threats, right? To be able to identify an abnormal traffic pattern or unauthorized data movement to be able to push updates and patches quickly. So it's really about, you know, that manageability, that level of control gives them the ability to offer a resilient and secure underlying networking infrastructure. And then, you know, finally, one of the key benefits is cost savings. You know, everybody is trying to be more efficient. And so from our perspective, it's really about building an open platform. You know, we've built a platform on the X86 based platform. We've, we chose that because we wanted to tap into a mature ecosystem that, you know, customers can leverage as they, you know, as they build their, build towards their modernization goals. And so we're like leveraging technologies like UCPs, so universal customer premise equipments. And so that's really just an open hardware platform.  You get operational savings as well, right? So you've, a common hardware infrastructure means a common deployment model, means a streamlined operations, means fewer truck rolls, right? So there's a tremendous amount of benefit from the cost standpoint as well. Because from our perspective, it's really that what customers are looking for, they need enterprise-grade solutions that can scale in a cost-effective manner. That's awesome. You guys mentioned Sassi earlier, first of all, software as a service is very Sassi. Big modern application movement, so I always get right here Sassi, I think, you know, a kind of term around Sassi, software as a service. But for you guys, it's talking about secure access service edge, which is a huge category growth right now where, you know, for security and networking, it's a huge discussion. SD-WAN fits into that somehow, because it used to be campus networking before, now it's everyone's world is the same, now it's connected. So Sassi's huge. How does that fit into SD-WAN and the trend of the Sassi the same? What's the difference? Because SD-WAN has been booming for the past decade as well in terms of trends. How are you guys seeing those converging in? What's the difference? You know, I like to also agree with you that SD-WAN has been booming the last couple of years, right? You know, kind of bread and butter part of what we've been doing. But, you know, to your question regards to kind of its linkage relative to Sassi, right? You know, as you articulate rights, Sassi secure access service edge from a definition of the acronym, so in support. It's first kind of good to kind of define it a little bit, maybe for some of those that may not be overly familiar with it. And I like to kind of dumb it down a little bit to the point of Sassi is really an architecture that is around, you know, the convergence of networking and security being put together in a uniform platform or service that is delivered from both the cloud as well as addressing, you know, their kind of traditional WAN requirements. Now digging in, Sassi is broken into little buckets, right? It's broken into a network layer and a security layer. And by its definition, right? By a particular analyst, the network component, the big portion of that is SD-WAN. And so SD-WAN providing that value associated to what it does, you know, dynamic length steering, automation, application attachment and so on and so forth is a core element of the foundation of the network layer associated to Sassi. And then the other element of Sassi is around the security bit. And so they're very much intrinsically linked whether, you know, for example, like Versa, just to kind of, you know, mention this here, the Sassi cloud that we've built for our customers to leverage for private access, public access, you know, secure internet, CASB, DLP type of services is built upon SD-WAN in addition to our customers that are using SD-WAN for their traditional WAN or using SD-WAN to connect to that cloud. So it's very, very much linked. And they kind of go hand in hand depending on your approach to the broader architecture. And, you know, another point I'll bring into that, what it also highlights is that whether it's around Sassi or not, when we pertinent to everything we've been other, we kind of been talking about, the other thing that's coming with SD-WAN intrinsically and natively is really the concept of security. It's around whether it's security at the branch or whether it's around some form of identity management or a point of improving posture for the enterprise to, you know, obviously inspect traffic at the branch or remotely. But what we're seeing at a trend-wise, which, you know, in part by customer adoption from our own platform, if you will, is basically security and SD-WAN coming together, whether for your traditional WAN transformation or as a result of Sassi services for a hybrid needs of connectivity, right? Remote workers, hybrid workforce going into the cloud for their connectivity needs and optimizations in addition to obviously the enterprise's branch transformations. I like that native aspect of it. We used to joke and call SD-WAN, SD-Cloud because we're all using cloud technologies. Talk about the security impact real quick, if you don't mind. I want to just double click on what you mentioned there because I think the cloudification plus the security piece seems to be a key part of this dynamic. Is that true or did I get that right? What's this all mean with cloudification? Yeah, I agree with, I guess, kind of where you're leading into that is, you know, review all of us here right now exactly in talking with you right now, right? John is, as you stated in the beginning, we're all remote. And so from a business perspective, right? We are accessing or from an engagement, we're accessing a cloud service. Now, what's critical for us as, you know, obviously enterprise employees is that our means of accessing this cloud service needs to have some level of hardening. We need to protect, right? Not only our own asset that we're using, right? Our laptops or other machinery that you're using to connect to the network, but in addition to protect our company, right? So our company also needs to protect it. So how can we do that, right? How can we do that in a very fast and distributed way? Sure, we can put security endpoints at every location with every user and every home. And that's one means of a particular solution. So your point about cloud is now take all of that and bring into the cloud where you have a much more distributed means, right? And much more dynamically scalable approach to actually doing that level of inspection, posture and enforcement. And so that's kind of where, you know, the rubber meets the road, right? It's for us to access those cloud applications. The cloud that we're using as a conduit for security as well as network also is now even connected and optimized paths to applications like what we're using right now, right? To do this conversation. So that's kind of where it meets together and the security element is because we're so diverse, we just need, we need to ensure, right? We're all much more vulnerable, right? My home network is, you know, maybe arguably maybe not as secure as when I go into an office, right? It's much more secure than most people because you get to work for personal networks. I could make that argument, yes, right?  And so we point a point of risk, right? And so as we go to cloud apps, we're more connected to the internet, right? You know, the point of being able to do this enforcement from a sassy concept helps provide that improved posture for enterprises to secure their traffic and get visibility into them. Joking aside, all my network engineer friends are secure as you read about. And I always joke to the malware, you missed the wrong network engineer by going after them, their house, spearfishing you, trying to get into your network. I'd say if I want to bring this back because what we're bringing up here is cloud is actually enabling more on-premises because you're working at home, that's a premise, right? So you're also edge is a premise. Edge and cloud, and cloud kind of eliminates all this notion of what is cloud and edge, but at the end of the day, it's where you are, right? So having the performance and the security and the partnership that like Safe with Dell, I know you guys have been on this for a while because I've been covering it, but the notion of edge completely changes now because what does that even mean? A home's edge is the campus data center's an edge, the car's an edge, the telco monopoles an edge. This is a big deal, this is about the unification. This is all about making it all work. What's your take on this from the Dell perspective? Yeah, and I think, I mean, you kind of summarize it, right? I mean, what does edge mean to you, right? It's, I mean, so every time I have a conversation with somebody, I always start with, let's define what your edge is. And so, from our perspective, from the Dell perspective is, we believe that we want to provide enterprise-grade infrastructure. We want to give our customers the right tools. And we're seeing that with this trend of a hybrid workforce, a geographically dispersed user base, we're seeing a tremendous need from IT departments for tools for solutions that can give them the control that they can sort of push out into their networks to ensure a safe and secure external access to corporate resources, right? And so that's what we're committed to, is making sure that that management layer by either developing the solutions in-house, bringing the right partners to the table and just ensuring that our customers have the right tools because this sort of trend or this new normal is not going away. And so we have to adapt. Great insight. Thanks for coming on. Rob, I'll give you the final word. What's changed the most in your opinion with customers' environments around how they're handling their networks as we come out of the pandemic, which has proven kind of which projects are working, which ones aren't, where to double down on and what was screwed up. I mean, come on, this is, we're kind of seeing that they all play out. What's your take on as we come through the pandemic and people come out of this? What's the big learning? Well, that you need partners, right? Okay, so it's not even from a vendor perspective. What I mean by partners is what we're finding and what I think a lot of either customers I've engaged with and others is this ain't easy. For even as much as we can within the technology vendor market, right? It's to make things easier to do. There's a lot of technology and the enterprise IT is recognizing you need a lot of these building blocks, right? To accomplish a lot of different things whether it's around automation too in other tools as Autif was leading into. And so we're finding that, a lot of our base or our interactions are really trying to identify an appropriate partner that can help not only talk to the technology but help them actually understand all the various different multi-colored legal blocks they got to put together but also help them actually put that into a realization, and then be able to then give the keys to them so they can eventually drive the car, right? And so the learning that we're seeing here is there's a lot of tech, there's a lot of new tech new approaches to existing technology of things that they've actually done and they're looking for help, right? And so they're looking for kind of let's call it like trusted advisor kind of status of people that can help explain the technology to them and then help them understand how do they put it together so they can then ultimately accomplish their overall kind of other kind of objectives from an IT perspective. And the other learning that I'll just say and then I'll stop here is SD-WAN isn't dead, right? SD-WAN is actually still driving and it's actually an impetus for a lot of other things that enterprise is actually doing whether it's around sassy oriented services, remote access, private access and other things of that nature. I totally agree. I think the networking stuff is still going to be so much innovation going on but the edge exploding as well that's the really great amazing stuff happening. Thanks for coming on this CUBE conversation, great conversation, taking it to the edge. Network challenges in the distributed hybrid workforce era is about moving things around the internet and making them secure. I'm John Furrier, your host. Thanks for watching.


Let's move too far to the east, to Baijing, when Abdulaziz just said Saudi Arabia has condemned the Turkish incursion. China doesn't seem to condemn anything, just looking at the situation and enjoying it, I don't know, but there are no real statements on Yemen, no real statements on the Turkish incursion into Syria and China seems to wait until opportunities open itself for both economic and, more and more, also political and security engagement throughout the region. Economic definitely in Syria and Iraq, security engagement with the UN in Sudan, South Sudan, for example. So does China have some ideas of its own and does it want to launch any initiatives of its own to solve any of the conflicts we have been talking about here? I only to express my personal views. By my observation, I believe China is closely watch the whole Middle East and pay attention to the changing situation in the Middle East. Today, my main argument is that there will be emergence of a situation of dead-down in Middle East. Even though not currently international community focused on the Turkish operation in northern Syria and which trigger of the various response towards this incident, but I think the general trend, there will be the trend of dead-down in the very near future in Middle East. The reason are as follows. First, United States is the first player actor in Middle East. But let's give a very careful and close look at the behavior of Trump administration. What Mr. Trump wants to do or what his priorities domestically and internationally? Domestically, I think the top priority for Mr. Trump is to win the election of next year. And globally speaking, I think Mr. Trump's attention mainly focused on China. So if his international agenda is focused on China, that means United States should concentrate enough and necessary resources to deal with China. So let's look at Middle East. I believe the resources of US disposal is limited. If United States wants to concentrate resources to deal with China, that means United States has to maintain its interest immediately at the lowest cost. We are all good at analyzing the United States. We are actually interested in learning about the Chinese priorities. I present the Chinese position later on. Don't take too long until you come to the Chinese priorities. Secondly, since United States wants to keep the stability of the regional alliance at the lowest cost to safeguard US interests at the lowest cost, that means United States right now cannot do big things in the Middle East. Even though United States cannot do big things in the Middle East, that means United States regional alliance also cannot do big things because they hope United States to take the lead, to take the leadership and to contribute more resources. Let's look at Russia. No, let's look at China, please. I mean, you must admit, I squeezed that you want to... Let me summarize. Since you don't allow me to extend my argument, so let me summarize. In one word, there are rare stakeholders in Middle East. They are all tired, even to some extent. They are exhausted, God exhausted. Russia, United States, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and even Turkey. So I think to generalize, there are wishes as to at least not let the current attention get further escalated. So that's laid down a great foundation for the situation of dead-down. So my recommendations for all the policy conferences is that international community should catch up this opportunity of dead-down to, first of all, to hammer out a security framework in Gulf region in Middle East. Maybe you can organize certain kinds of international conference to deploy the possibility and the feasibility of how to let this region more stable, more peaceful. And the second, international community and regional countries should focus on the fight against international terrorism and religious extremism. And also, ethical separatism. And certainly, I think the general key to address the regional peace, stability, and development is development. It's the regional and trans-regional cooperation. In this regard, China wants to offer its contribution to that within the framework of Belt and Road initiatives. This is cooperation with all Middle East countries. The reality is that China, in fact, keeps good relations with all Middle East countries, including Saudi Arabia, including Israel and Iran. Of course, of course, we keep very good relations with all Middle East countries. And that, I think, is a better condition to have cooperation with all Middle East countries. And so, I think China's position towards the Middle East already illustrated very clearly by President Xi Jinping during his visit in Egypt and his speech in the headquarters of the Arab League. That is, three notes. China seeks no proxy in Middle East, not to seek field power vacuum and not seek regime change rather than persisting in our traditional policy non-interference in other countries' internal affairs. And also, we call for United Nations to play a leading role to address peace, stability, and development issues in Middle East. We also very strongly support the Palestinian cause and support the two states' solutions based on relevant UN Security Council resolutions and this border before the 1967 war and with Eastern Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian state. So we support the Arab Peace Initiative led by Saudi Arabia. We also highly appreciate Saudi Arabia and the Arab League's response to the recent, I mean, the so-called development of the century and the Arab positions and Saudi Arabia's positions. So this is very short summarized. Thank you very much for laying that out.