The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Hazel Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Tiger Technician Hour. We're looking at the tower of 40 at 4,000. This is the S&P. So this is the E-mini. One minute chart. Looking for a leg D, new recovery height today. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. This is the recovery height today. Let's just get back to our story. We've got the Dow. There we go. The INDU. There we are. The Dow is up 149,35,430. This big red candle is very significant for me. That's the one from yesterday. Why? Because it's suggesting to me that we've done a one to one parallel, Chapman parallel upside extension. And the target that I had was right there at about 35,570. We actually went to 35,633. Now, these are the things that are very important to me. I've discussed this over and over and again for weeks and weeks, that this nine-period exponential moving average has been moving higher. I went against everything because at that PD, we did take a short and we had a very tight stop, got stopped out and it was ready. I went against my own technique because that nine-period moving average, as I said before, it's imperative for a market that is turning around to see that nine-period move negative and then the price takes out. In this case, the green is the nine-period moving average, the 14 is the black moving average right there, and then take out the lower one, start to close underneath so you can get at least a sell signal, maybe upgrade to a sell mode, but the price would have to go sharply below to get that green to go pink. So it's a process. It's either you've got bad news that comes out and just filters the market so that within two or three days it is in your local newspaper, let alone an APA starts reporting at every hour of the day. We don't have that right now. In fact, we're at a point where we were climbing a wall of worry and now that wall of worry seems to be dissipating some. What is the market going to crawl? So I'm looking at this and saying there's a chance that we're looking at some kind of a rollover, suddenly there's bad news, but it's almost at the end. So we'll get, I guess I need to do this, begin an internal high and a residual high. So let me just do this for one second here. So within this context, look how much higher we are from the November of 22 cap that was put on the market at about 34,712. What we're looking at is this is the first period that not only have we closed above that trend line for two to three out of four sessions, it's gone on for one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10. Today's the 10th session above that trend line. I have to look at this and say we've now built the resistance level, turned it into a huge support level in the 34,000 to 33,500 area. So I consider that to be a really big positive. That's number one. Number two is get out of this. It's technical Friday, so I'm going to do this. I'm going to try to do this all in the first segment because I had a whole bunch of questions I do want to get to. So look at this. This is the gray, it's just the closing price of the instruments that we're looking at. And all I have is the 9 and 14 crossovers, green when it's positive, pink when it's negative, push it should come up right now. Then I say push one, two, there it is. Four, five, six. What's going on? Did I not refresh? No, don't do this to me, please. There it is. Okay. So what we've got is, remember, this is the Dow. I'll keep it as I showed it back in May, May the 3rd. At 32,684, May the 3rd was right there. And I said, right there. All right, it's gone underneath. Is it going to go pink? And it went pink and it stayed pink for a while. The market kept making low lows and low highs. And then it went green. And then I said, this is the same thing with the left side, right side. Move over the 9-period moving average. And now we're going to come down. It's going to go pink. Well, we got out of our trading loans on the Dow right there. And what it did was, it started to move up. And then green did not turn pink. The 9-period moving health is health health. Are we now on the left side? And we're going to be watching a right side move either slightly above, right on, or just below the left side high. That's the high of yesterday, actually. And now what we need to look at is, does the 9-period moving average show weakness? At this particular point, it's the price that's going to make it weak because everything's strong. So that is internal strength. So I'm going to do this quickly because I'm going to try to cover questions that I got at the same time. Look, question came in on the SMHs. We've been short because I thought that that was going to be the move down. Well, it was briefly, but then we had a bounce. And now that 9-period moving average is deflected to the upside with the price at a new recovery high. Let me just see. I don't know. It's not a new recovery high. Let me just go back to the actual trial itself, SMH. So we conducted an ETF, typed it in the wrong place. Let me type it in here, SMH. Oh, we're almost at a high. Not only just a recovery high, but an all-time high. 159.42 was the all-time high in November of 2021. We were trading at 160.43. We were above that high. So the question came in. I've begun shorting the SMHs. I'm about to add another one today. I've got 165 stop. Where would you, what do you think would be the downside action? So this is what I'm going to do. I'm going to use everything that all the tools I have right now to just, you know, my market stance, my market stance right now is that I think we, in a topping formation, it's going to be a slow roll over and you've now got tremendous support in that cushion that was resistance. Okay. So this is to get that off the table. It's also very selective. Some areas that you'd expect to be doing very well right now are stalling and others are actually leading. And you've got sectors where, and I'll do this because it's all part of it. Look at this. Intel suddenly comes alive. Pearl Intel gaps up and it's making this beautiful cup formation, trying to tackle the peak B that failed on the 25th, I think it was of June at 37, 31, 37, 31. Here we are at 30, 35, 98 is the height today. 30, 36 is 36, 98. Well, I guess I am going to have to get my glasses. 36, 98. Okay. So, and the weekly chart is breaking out. And yet this is a stock that was up at now 70 twice back in 2020, 2020, 2021. And look what happened. It plunged down to the 24 area, 24, 259 double bottom and 24, 73. So this is now helping. So that's what I always talk about when you've got a rotational direction, people on the upside and the downside, that what was beat, it suddenly becomes strong. I have someone in there now, like you say, going, going was very poor. Suddenly it's a leader, Triple M, very poor. Now it's a little bit of a leader. I'll be back in a moment. That was up 178. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. 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If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com Educating Investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger Zen. Hosted at Discord, TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tiger's Day. Available to all tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com I'm always thankful for Friday, so I'm going to try to do everything yet. One minute chart just made a leg deep, possibly a peak deep, and a new day high. Leg, the 10 minute chart, look at the way. But across positive right now, I've been doing a lot of work on this two-click type session yesterday was almost a two-click session. But wait a minute, we've got a high here of 45, 82, 50. This far they went L with the 9 people across positive, and it's still positive. You've gone from the high. I'll go, I don't know, I'll just go from the high of 45, 82. And yeah, we are at 46, 06. I believe someone in the deck, I can't remember, just off the hand, said 46, 06 looks like a good area for a target when we were weighed down the 45, 90s there. Yeah, good, good call. And this is going to be leg E. We watched it happen. Yeah, there could be a little digester phase right here. This is the same thing. The 9 people moving average in the 10 minute chart, unless it's a sudden news event that really tanks who knows oil, it doesn't matter what it is, tanks it and the S&P 10 minute chart drops under 49, 49, 90, 45, 90. 45, 90 is at 46, 04 right now. I mean, that's a big pullback. That'll get to the green to turn pink. That's so it's either a process that takes time for to wear out the buying pressure, or it's a sudden news event. We don't have any black news. Well, I call it dark news cloud cover with just a dark, it's like when those thunder clouds are down, we had them last night, those and a lightning and the thunder and you suddenly get this whoosh of a down storm. And it either lasts when it's like that, it doesn't last that long, but when it's a very deep bad news thing, it goes on for days and the S&P is down 50 and it tries to run in it closes down 60. And the next day, the overnight is down, then it has a rally, but it closes down sharply again, even deeper. You don't have that right now. And that's the only thing in trying to time the top. And my question, the question was, in the SMH is, where do you think it's going to go on the downside? So I'm saying I'm going through everything because of the technicals. This is technical Friday, Chapman Weave technical Friday. I want to go through all these different things to show you. Look, as triple M breaks out, all of a sudden, it's in the triple M and BA are going to be the shortest term favorites. Who you know, out of the blue, they're doing nothing. And then boom. And all of a sudden, fund managers say, wait a minute, wait a minute. Am I going to chase Apple? I could just get triple M. And if triple M goes even back to one of the left side peaks of a consequence that would be 130. That's a darn nice thing. So that's the way the money's going. And that's the rotation. And that says, I don't see right now, just unless something happens, some exigency, you never know, it could be international, it could be whatever. It has to be really bad news that just permeates the markets day in and day out, at least for a week, to really build up momentum to have a very, very deep slide. So it's going to be a rollover correction. That's really what I'm looking at. So let's go back to the SMHs, see where the SMH is right now, hasn't taken out the high yesterday, but it's up in all almost an all time high within a couple of points from all time high. So here we go, as long as micro devices, a lousy charge, trying to rally, had a fantastic move, I think it's sort of out of favor here and all of a sudden Intel, which was being decimated by advanced micro devices becomes a leader. This is what I'm talking about. The rotation is spectacular. Now that happens. Okay, what happens is NVDA, NVIDIA, struggling after making that double top high at about 480. Did I type that in or not? Well, I'll type it in now. At 4, there it is, 480.88 on the 14th, I bet I did have, there it is, I have it. All right, 480.88, oh 88, is it 80 or 88? On the 14th, it's struggling is making this cup formation. This one's really working hard. The technicals are actually disappointing, but the nine is still over the 14. And that's good. And look at the weekly chart, potential leg D make to make a slightly higher high. So you've got to wait for these things to unfold. And yes, as I want to I don't want to talk out of turn, but we did have a short position in the semis.   I didn't I wanted to see if it was going to hold it didn't hold just it was a nibble and a small position. So it was very small position, a small loss, but a loss nevertheless. But I want to clarify, we are not in that. At this point, we're looking to see what happens on the SMH is going through the applied materials, applied materials a match. Fantastic company. That's fun. I just had a little text conversation with my buddy who sold his semiconductor business. Now it must be like four or five years ago. Yeah, there must be something like that. Anyway, 150 point 93, making a new recovery high 16706 was the January to 2022. All time high, big cup formation. So that's acting very well. It looked very poor the other day made a low low in the H pattern. And then all of a sudden the H pattern turned into a big cup formation. I don't want to fight that trend. So I'm just going to say I wouldn't add today. If I don't think you have added yet you've just started your position, you said you're gonna you're thinking of adding today. And I think you also want to listen to the show. I'm doing it with you because I'm in your camp. I'm saying, Hey, when these semiconductors give it up.  But maybe the glut of chips happens just as the chips are really needed. Because we're seeing productivity expand. I don't know that that's too complex for me to see if that's occurring right now. But certainly if these stocks are making highs, there's not a glut in the sense that it brings the prices down. Remember, semiconductor chips are a commodity, and they become even more commoditized. But at the same time, semiconductor chips of the crude oil of the 21st century for the 1900s, crude oil was everything. And then as you got into the latter part into the 70s, 80s and 90s, 1990s, that is, into the 2000s. Now we're talking about something else between about chips being the oil of the 21st century, in fact, going on for who knows how many decades, it's going to be chips. Prices will come down. But maybe they stabilize because they're always becoming faster. So that's what I want you to say is just be careful. I'm going to give you all the numbers in a moment. I didn't want to finish with LRCX, which is another great company, LAM Research, almost an all time high. 721.03 is the high today. And so far. And seven. Oh, did I not write that in? I didn't. It was a two bar reversal at 693 round number high. Oh, I forgot I once wrote this in. And then there was a fractionally higher high the next month, seven. So seven. Here we go. 78, 78, 71.45. Isn't that interesting? So 731. We haven't got the yet. I think the way 11 points we can do that is some for the LAM Research. So given the numbers, as soon as I get back and then all the other places in the game, including question about SLX, which is steel. Yeah, I'll be back. Attention traders. Larry Pesevento, the renowned trading mastermind is holding an exclusive live trading event on Wednesday, August 2nd. From 9am to 2pm Eastern Time, transform your trading skills with the real time wisdom of a Wall Street veteran. Just $295 gets you a front row seat to this power packed session, plus a month free of Larry sought after newsletter Fibonacci 24 seven, a $97 value. Elevate your strategies to code the markets and achieve your financial goals. Remember, this event will be archived for all attendees and Larry only does a few of these a year. Don't miss this opportunity. Sign up today at tfnn.com. Secure your future and start trading smart. T F N N. Educating investors. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago, and the student has now become the master. 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You have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at T F N N. You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry, tedious text either.  Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money.  Don't forget you can listen to T F N N live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Yes, so let me just wrap this up. Yes, so the semiconductor estimators still with very good technicals. When I do a left side right side test of the technicals, the MACD is very weak, the stochastic is very weak, on balance volume is very good, a little bit overboard. That nine period moving average is what's keeping everything intact. If you look at the left side right side price time hatch going to a leg D could extend today might not. We never know, but it might even make a peak D today. But going to an all time high, you know stocks that go in instruments that go to an all time high, especially when it's an ETF, a conglomerate. It doesn't just stop on a dime, so it needs it needs time. So I'm just going to say I would not get too carried away. I'd rather be looking at lower lows and lower highs rather than try in this particular instance. The reason why I love to try my best for subscribers and for myself to try to pick the exact moment of a turn is because it gives you so much flexibility when, for instance, if you pick a low like we had back in the last one was October of this past year, we were bought the Dow and the SDW three times longer down or back in what was it March of 2020, still have that. It's because when you get it at a low, when it rallies up and then it starts this gyration trying to retest, you've got room, otherwise you're going to keep going in and out. This way you can just watch it and say, OK, take me out. That's fine. And then as it moves higher, you can raise your stock, your core position and trade around it. That's what we love doing. So this is what I'm looking at here that the SMH is. This is an absolutely key moment because it's a key moment for the SMH, but it's also for because where the SMH goes, generally you're going to see the market, overall market going that direction. So I'm just saying I don't I had a clue when it was pulling back and it did, but now that it's gone back up, how it goes back up and how that strength is generated and how something like an Intel can have an impact because if it's not going back to the 200p moving average of 32, it's up here at 36 and it's actually just starting and move to the upside, that's going to give you some room. So I'd be a little careful of being so specific in a sector that's making all time eyes. So I'm just going to say stay with what you've got. I wouldn't add to this particular point. I'd rather add on weakness as we see that 9p moving, even if it gets close, we've seen that it gets close and then it springs back up. When it crosses negative, I think you're going to have a chance to say now I can implement bigger turns and just stay with your stop. I have a feeling the 65 level is 165 is not going to be reached, but that's just the feeling. It's got nothing to do with the price. So just be real careful there, especially since it's come back so strongly in the cup formation. All right, I'm done with that. So SLX, this is a steel sector. Look at this, double top and then it goes to all time highs. Now you see this monthly chart and then ag vectors, steel ETF. Look how it's making higher highs and higher lows and look at each stalling at 68.2. Let me double check this. This is back in May of 2021. It goes to 62.22. There it is. Okay. And then it pulls back pretty sharply to the 50 area. That's 18 points a lot of them. And then it goes to a fractional new high. It goes to 69 something, was it? It goes to, is that a 70, 70.43. 70.43, two and a half points higher after all that. And then it goes to a deeper correction to the 49, 48 area and then it's ready to a fractionally higher high. What does it go to? It goes to 70.38. And then it pulls back and now it's gone to what? A high at 71 point, 70.96, a new recovery high. Sorry, new all time. No, let's just open this up. There it is. No, all time I thought so. The all time high was back here. Pick A, B, C, D, P, E right here with the silent dojo. I remember this as well. Back in the monthly chart. Back in February of 2011. And then a stall on its way down. And it made a lower low and most of the indices did not make lower lows after the 2009. Remember, we timed that to the day exactly. Buying the diamonds on the 6th of March 2009. OK, so in other words, you've got a little bit of a way to go. Not much for the all time high of. Did I do that? Oh, that was the that was all the SLX. Now I remember SLX only so in 2006. So I couldn't really tell. It did go pick A, B, C, D, E, but I don't know where it started from. And then it pulled back. That was the first real move that I could identify a low. Now I've got to remember it all. So that high that was made was A high, but we could have even been higher at some point. But that was 2008, May of 2008. And the price was 114.05. So that's got a long way to go. All right, so new recovery high, not all time high. Oh, I could do a left side, right side, price time much. I'll do that over the weekend. I don't want to do it now. So, yes, the SLX is acting really well. If you look at X, which is this is US Steel. Look at the monthly chart. Yeah, just OK, but look at NUE. Newcore almost going to 187.90 was all time high back in 2022. Plunges to 100 almost was a 46 percent decline or more. And then it goes back peak APB and now it's trying for a C. It's at 168. This is one of the best. STLD is one that I followed for years and years because I thought it was metal chairs or something like that. But steel dynamics, steel products with hot rolls, steel. Oh, CLF. Let me just do this before I get CLF. Cleveland Cliffs. I think it's Rolls, Steel, Cleveland Cliffs, not doing that well. So let's go back to what I was looking at. Now, if I can even remember what I was looking at. Oh, STLD. Look at that. Yes, it's pulling back a short term, but it has done very nicely. Hot Roll still look turned to period moving average right there. Key support watching this closely. Now, so within the SLX, that was the question. I like it. I like it for the long term for 2023. But on a short term basis, what I am looking at, and this is going to be something that I have to monitor very closely because it goes all together with the cyclicals, the deep cyclicals. And that goes with Caterpillar, even though they're really done. Caterpillar is Caterpillar. Caterpillar is almost at an all time high. 266.04 was high in January of 2020 of this year. And it makes a beautiful cut formation. And now it's testing. It looks almost like the steel stock. Look at that in peak D. And that's just going sideways, almost at the high on the left on the right side with a monthly chart. So the question about XLF, you know, this is one of those. The person asked me, I don't believe your options. You have never done options. If you're doing options, I would say 35. I would buy a September or October call on XLF, just a long term and just don't even worry about it. Just let it sit there. I'd probably want to go as close to in the money as possible. But if I could, I think it would be enough for me to read them. I think we'll catch it to get that back. But the question I need just a moment to say, what am I looking for when I get the downside? So I'll give you an answer. The Gold Report. As a precious metal gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds, the South African RAND, as well as 25 different mining equies with specific buy-sell recommendations. 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An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold. Created on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Hi, so question... Wait, let me just... I better write this down because I'm going to forget. Okay. Okay. That's next. Okay, so this is... Where would downside targets be on SMHs if and when they finally take a breather? Well, if you're looking at a 12% correction, what happens if it goes to 164? It doesn't stop you out and then it turns down. That's a different 20% than it is from 160. So I'd rather do this. If at any point in the next... I'm going to make it two weeks because I want to get into August. So about the second... Let's make it... August is coming up on Tuesday by the close on Friday the 11th. If the SMHs have had any two-day close below 152, that's the trough was right there a couple of days ago, a week or so ago, they had 152.29, a close below 151 suggests that it would then go to the next level, 146. I don't think with the 200-period moving average, I don't even know where it is in this particular instrument right here, the SMHs. Look at that, way down at 130. We're way above it. Look how often it's tested and it's spiraled to the upside. I have to look at the 50-period moving average and say somewhere in the 148 area, that's something that's going to be important. But I would just say to you that if you get the dating chart, 9-period moving average to cross negative, probably the SMHs are going to go below 151. If they go below 151, then the weekly chart, 9-period moving average, although it's going to move slower, will start to creep down. Until that turns negative, you're not going to get more than a digestive moment. So I'd go one step at a time and I'd say, if you're going to risk at 150, at 160, 10% on the upside, then you need to anticipate at least, I would say, 15% on the downside. And that gets you all into this area that we're talking about of the 140s, if it goes to the 163, 164 area. So I'd go one step at a time. I'd much rather you're shorting from a higher level, or I don't see that the tide is turned. I see the tide as potentially turning based on the magnesium stochastic, but on balance volumes with the M-shaped pattern and that weekly chart, the bigger tide is up and the monthly tide says, what are you talking about? I'm making all-time highs. The stochastic said 86. So to me it was a shorter-term trade. If you're looking at the longer-term trade, it has to work perfectly. And I'd be looking at Intel. If Intel gives back the gains by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, then you're looking at something that says, OK, Nvidia should be running out of energy. All of these should be running out of energy. And advanced market advice is a bit of a clue. That's the way I would look at it. Price, 151 is the area to watch for the bigger move to the downside, but then 146 is as tremendous support. I hope that helps you. SLX, do you want to go long from here? Well, stocks and instruments that make new all-time highs tend to stay on the new all-time list over months. So in other words, it could pull back, but then it could get back there. So I like what I'm seeing and I know that, in your case, who asked me the question, I know that you look at the bigger picture. So I'm going to say, why don't you put your foot in the door at 69.21, knowing that that's just your instrument that tells you if there's a close on a weekly basis, that says for the next two weeks, there is a close next two out of three weeks. In other words, going to about the third week of August, if there have been two closes above the high that was made at 70.38 on the week of the third at peak D, that's leadership. That's going to go together with PAVE, which is the, look at this PAVE, testing all-time highs in a rectangle formation. Probably going to pull back a little bit from here, but that's also broken out of that same kind of resistance line. So I'm just saying, I don't think it's ready because we're starting to get a little bit toppy here, but at the same time, get your foot in the door. It's going to just give you a much better feel for how it's working when any individual sectors like the global infrastructure development, ETF, PAVE, PAVE, if it starts to pull back, if any of the single stocks in the steel sector start to pull back. Good. We've got that out the way. Now I can go to MUFG. MUFG. Now I have to just tell you, first of all, don't get a heart attack anybody. On the left side, he has the data chart. It trades overseas. Mitsubishi, I forgot the N. Mitsubishi. Nope, nope, not Mitsu. Don't leave out a T when it comes to Miso. Mitsubishi. There you go. Oh, I made it a capo. Mitsubishi, UFJ, Financial Inc. No, not all-time high. It made it all-time high, much, much higher. Way back in. Way back in. Way back in 2006. It hit. It went into the 16s. So, yeah, but this is a really, this is an outstanding move. And this is Japan. Let's just have a look at the NK. This is a Nike. I haven't updated it. This is a Nike continuous contract, almost at all-time highs. I remember it on my daily chart, when I used to hand chart, I used to hand chart the FTSEE 30. I just don't even get the information on the FTSEE anymore. I hand charted the Nike, the Nikkei, and I hand charted the Dow and the S&P. With engineering paper, I used to have to stick the pages together so high. And I, I think I got an E. Not an F, but an E on the continuous, on the closing price contract on my daily chart. I got it somewhere here. I wonder if I'll show a picture of it. And that was, was that 30,000? I can't remember, 39,000, whatever it was. All right. So, now we're looking at a really good comeback from the Nikkei, but Mitsubishi, look at this, the symbol, M-U-G. Oh, no, I forgot. M-U-F-G. There it is. Okay. This is a slight and even better looking chart. No. I don't know why you're asking me this, Topiki, because you know it's looking fantastic. I wouldn't do anything at this point. You know my rule, if it's making all-time eyes doing fantastically and you have to ask the question, it means why don't you take a little bit off just to kind of money management part of it and ease any worry that you have that is going to start to pull back. This is looking fantastic. I'm sure you're in it. That's why you're asking me, oh, oh, what to do? Maybe not. Oh, to add. Yeah, that's a really good question. I'm calling this a B. It should be a G-B in the monthly chart, but the way it broke out, I just, I'll change that if I have to, but I think this is a B. This is an E in the weekly chart and this new spike to the upside. Is that an A? Or is this from your A, B, C, D, E? Is this an F slash A? I don't know. All I can say is I would add at 840. You have to have a lot of patience now to add.  Rather on a dip towards, give me a yell. We'll look at this when it gets down to the 757.40 area. And, you know, I was, I wasn't prepared, but it was family thing, so I couldn't, I didn't know when I'd have free time. I wanted to call you to have a game of tennis. I did play tennis with my son, but I didn't get a chance to do your call to play tennis. Next time I'm in town, I'll give you a yell. But yeah, have patience. This is done fantastically. You have to wait for the full day. Just five days ago, the 740s. Okay. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den. 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Good afternoon everyone. My name is Doug Williams, and this is my colleague from Red Hat, A.L. Barone. There's actually a little bit of a history to this presentation. Good. Aren't screensavers wonderful. If you look at the abstract, you originally see a gentleman named Mark Wagner who was supposed to present it. So you worked on the presentation and had to go in for knee surgery. And then you saw a gentleman named Andy Catherill. And he got sick mid-week in A.L. and I joined in. So our goal is to complete the presentation without medical issues. With any luck, we'll get through this. So bear with us, please. So... The topic of OpenStack Performance is a really broad topic, and I do want to set some expectations. We're gonna only scratch the surface of that, but it'll be a work in progress. But what we really want to do is a couple of things. We wanted to talk a little bit about how do you conceptualize OpenStack? Because you can think of OpenStack as really a couple of things. You can think of it as the individual projects. NOVA, Cinder, Keystone. But you can, and many of that lives in the provisioning realm, but also think about it as what's in the rest of the platform. The operating system, the hypervisor, the storage technology, and how they play together to the system level. So we're gonna try to talk about a few of those topics together. So a little bit, we'll talk about how do you conceptualize it? How would you think about it? What technologies fit where that could have an effect on performance? And then start to drill down, first on some foundational elements, things that anchor the performance of OpenStack everywhere. Then start to talk about OpenStack compute and individual components there, and then broaden into OpenStack Cinder and a little bit about OpenStack Swift if time permits. So what you'll see is really a work in progress. It's reflect our best efforts of where some of the characterizations were mid last week. You'll see a mix of results where possible. We're gonna try to share some Havana results. Sometimes we had older results that we view are still current, so we're gonna share those. And I also wanted to give you a sense of some of the things that we're not quite ready to present. And probably the biggest area is neutron. And the reason why is neutron reflects a really substantial change to OpenStack. It's really pushing things like OpenVswitch and GRE and VXLAN, and you're actually still seeing a lot of innovation around that. So we will be doing performance characterization. It's currently in flight, but that's really not ready to present yet, but expect results in the future there. The other area is a lot more focus on the end-to-end provisioning use cases all the way into heat, and so expect within Red Hat, we're putting a lot of energy on that testing, and those will be reportable in the future. So I can't imagine anyone who's in this room who hasn't seen this slide. High-level view, the various components of OpenStack. When I talk to our performance team, I like them to think about each of these components, such as Nova, Cinder, Neutron, Lance, and Swift, and think about it in really two domains. The classical domain of what does it mean to run a VM, what's the performance like of the VM in the steady state. If you come from a networking background, classic or referred to as the data plane operation, and then, very distinctly, a lot of the new value in OpenStack, which is, how do you provision? A VM, how do you stand up the image? How do you snapshot the image?  Really, the provisioning use cases as well. And you can think of each of these elements in many cases having a set of performance focused at the steady state, and a set of performance focused at the control plane operations. Kind of the exceptions are Swift. Swift, because it's a storage layer in and of itself, largely lives in the data plane, and Lance's job is to provision images. It really provides more of a supporting role in the control plane. You've also probably seen this diagram, and I'm not going to talk through it in detail, but if you look at the individual services with an OpenStack, there's a couple of patterns that you see. One is within any individual service such as Nova, you have individual software components, you have a database component, and you have a messaging component. So there's a set of foundational services that dictate performance such as messaging and database, or it can become a performance limiter, plus the performance of the individual elements. And as you aggregate them together through something like Heat, that federation of those services and that performance to provision a template, which is the collection of that. And so this is a little bit of why when we start to look at control plane performance, there's a fair amount of complexity because of the scope of the use cases that need to be tested. So what I tried to do is annotate that conceptualization of what's in the control plane and what's in the data plane with technologies that you might typically see in an OpenStack deployment, and then I'll try to get more specific when Red Hat, both in our RDO distribution and our REL OpenStack platform distribution, what technologies we select. So what you'll tend to see on the control plane is largely dominated by the code that's developed by the OpenStack organization. So this is the Python code, so it's the OpenStack code itself, typically today Python 2.7, and then various issues around the global interpreter lock, eventlets that are handling concurrency very efficiently. And then you'll see some foundational elements, both those foundational elements that are part of OpenStack itself, such as Keystone for Security. So AL will talk a little bit about the getting of the security tokens and therefore the performance effect on the security subsystem based on, for example, ANOVA operation. What we're not talking about now, but expect to in the future is Solometer, same thing, Individual Services creates events and therefore there will be performance demands on the monitoring service, and then the service such as the database and the messaging. So I mentioned before the classic OpenStack, that's Python 2.7, and the OpenStack code, and then what you tend to see in the database is either MySQL, lately a lot of people are using MariaDB, and as they look at the higher performance targets, availability targets, either doing active failover, which pretty much means the same performance around MariaDB, or introducing another technology such as Galera for active-active, and then performance tax in order to deliver high availability. On the right-hand side, what you'll see is technologies that OpenStack manages, but they come from often other heritages. So the heart of NOVA, with the exception of ESXi, is the Linux node, so that's going to be hopefully an enterprise Linux, some from Red Hat, but certainly Ubuntu is very common as well. The hypervisor technology, typically KVM, Zen's also involved ESXi, and then when you have NOVA instant storage, that's really pulling in technology such as XFS or EXD4, and therefore that will often dictate the performance of your ephemeral storage, plus depending on your storage partner, do they use any backplane raid for striping, and that can have effect, as we'll talk about later on, things like the boot performance. As you get into Cinder, this is really where you're either going to be using some of the traditional storage technologies, the EMC NetApp, some of the newer technologies such as GlusterFS and Seth, we'll talk about that a little bit more, and some of the specialty technologies, particularly around SSD arrays, and that's in many cases where the storage path into Linux has a big effect on performance. Neutron, this is actually undergoing a massive amount of change, generally from a switch of Linux bridge to OpenVswitch, you know, rapid evolution in Linux community around OpenVswitch, and in particular some maturation around GRE and VXLAN as well, and then for many of the deployments that use a more basic model, they push the burden out of the software stack into the storage, so the storage dominates performance, or you may also see this around L3 performance in L3 gateways and things like that, depending on whether it's hardware or software. So I just wanted to have you walk through the broad set of technologies. What you'll see today will be results that Red Hat measures, so that'll be a little bit more biased towards our technology choices. So continue to be Python 2.7 and the OpenStack bits. Of course, for Red Hat, that would be REL 6.5. There's been a lot of enhancements to the kernel based on OS needs, it's bringing in things like network namespaces, a lot of work around OpenVswitch, still a pretty broad family of storage technologies that are supported. When it gets into databases, Red Hat will tend to focus towards MariaDB, and for Red Hat, Cupid is the underlying messaging layer there. The other thing that will affect your performance or your performance demands, particularly at a cell level, is to really think about this by two dimensions. One which is kind of the easy case, the more servers in a cell, the more provisioning operations that happen, you expect that to scale somewhat linearly with the number of nodes, but the other one, and this is really workload environment based, is to think about what's the intensity or the duty cycle of the workload, and what I want to do is point out a spectrum, because as you go through sizing, calibrating on the life cycle of a VM can have a big effect on the demand of the control plane. So at one end of the spectrum is fairly traditional apps, you deploy it, set it, forget it, it goes on without changes for months. So you can imagine the control plane sitting pretty much idle all the time. Slightly more dynamic, or quite a bit more dynamic, is the more modern style of scale out apps where the apps will autoflex, so there might be a provisioning operation every hour or two, maybe more active than that based on the peaks and troughs of the workload. As you move back from that, it might be a test dev environment, where someone is tearing down and reprovisioning apps at a very frequent basis, and then what you heard a little bit with Mark McLaughlin and others talking about continuous integration, where they talked about the frequency that they're tearing down open stack instances for CI. So this is probably the most intense use case, because individual test flows of service components are tearing down and creating VMs all the time. So depending on what your workload is, that will really dictate where you are in that spectrum and therefore the operating point of the control plane. So with that, why don't we switch over to AL, and he'll talk in a bit more depth. Thank you, Doug. So I think that's enough talking. Let's look at some numbers. So I'll dive straight to it. Again, we're just scratching the surface. Let's take a look at Keystone. So Keystone, these results are using UUID for the token provider, not PKI. These results are from PulseM. We saw a lot of chattiness. You see that when you do a horizon login, it gets three tokens, horizon image page, two tokens. So a lot of room for optimization in that space. Another side of it is that the database grows without cleanup. This has a lot of effects. It can really degrade performance, so really you should clean it up. You have problems with indexing, and for every 250,000 rows, the response time goes down by 0.1 seconds. This is actually pretty easily taken care of if you have a cron job that just runs Keystone managed. But the point is you need to take these things into consideration. You need to make sure that you not only install, but then configure your machine. You need to do some setup in order to make sure that your performance remains constant over time. Another aspect of this is actually just Python. So if you use the command line curl-8, you get in half a second you can run a command. If you're using Nova image show, then your performance degrades and you get 2.6 seconds. This is due to the fact that Python or the HTTP lib passes data one byte at a time. This is a known issue, but these things have to be taken into consideration. So if you're automating things, you should probably do it directly with curl, for example, and not through Python in this case. By the way, if you have any questions, please stop me. So let's look at Nova. So who in the audience knows what specvert is? Okay, very few people. So specvert is the leading benchmark standard for virtualization. This is not OpenStack specific. This compares VMware, KVM, et cetera, any virtualization technology you have. The good news is that for KVM, KVM is the leading hypervisor, and with OpenStack we use KVM on top of Rails, so we get pretty good performance numbers. The way, so a little more about specvert, the way specvert works is that it has tiles. Each tile is composed of six virtual machines, different workloads, and the more tiles you can create on the fly and keep an SLA, the better your benchmark will be. So here you can see basically the specvert results. This is specvert 2010. There's a new specvert 2013. There aren't results for that yet. As you can see, the more sockets you have, the higher density, of course, you can get, and better performance. The two columns are VMware results. The red columns are either KVM on top of Rails or KVM on top of Rev, in this case. Basically, two socket is the commodity hardware nowadays, so that's the spot for OpenStack, right? You want to get more and more machines cheaply, so that's probably the relevant side of the screen for OpenStack. If you have enterprise virtualization, your pits type of workloads, then that would fall on the right side where you'd like to spend more money and get more performance out of your machines. Now, although we are claiming here that specvert is valid for OpenStack, we need to validate, then, in fact, Rails with KVM works the same way for OpenStack and the way it was tested generically in specvert. So, we ran Java workload, and basically there are two things you can see here. This is ROS, ROS is Red Hat OpenStack versus an untuned Livered KVM. It's comparable. You see that the results are pretty much the same. In fact, with ROS, they're even better out of the box because we tuned with PacStack all the machines to use a tuned D profile called Vert Host. So, they're even out of the box better performance than KVM over Livered. Sorry, Livered over KVM. A few things to note here, though. In specvert results, basically, the people who submit the results tune the hell out of the machines. They use things like SRIOV and Numenode bindings. These are things that OpenStack still does not do, but I expect that this will come as we go. Another aspect to look at is Overcommit. So, OpenStack has a very aggressive CPU Overcommit. It basically Overcommit 16 to 1, so that means you can run 16 virtual CPUs for every physical CPU you have. On the memory side of things, it's much lower. It's one and a half Overcommit, so for every one gig of physical memory, you can at most allocate one and a half gigs of virtual memory. This is important because with memory, if you do too aggressive Overcommit, then your performance will run to the ground, you will start thrashing, so you really can't Overcommit too much. This very much depends on the workload and the type of things you do, so OpenStack still does not integrate with things like KSM, but I expect that these things will come. Yes. Well, the more control you give, obviously the better you can tune your machines. These things will come. Today the scheduler is really, really basic. You can only control a single parameter, which is the memory. The only parameter that is taken into consideration when you schedule virtual machines are how much memory does that virtual machine take up. It totally ignores CPU, totally ignores other aspects. I think, I'm not sure if there was already a session on this, but there is work being done on improving the scheduler and taking into consideration a lot more parameters. Obviously once that happens, you will also see things like C-groups coming into play where you can in fact control.  Right. So Vert Manager is a single host application. Yes, but the point I'm trying to make is that with OpenStack, one of the basic tenets is scalability. You don't get scalability by performing each compute node separately. You get scalability by being able to linearly scale and have, keep your hardware as homogenous as possible. So what you really want is to get out of the box the best performance you can on the one hand.  And then you can, if you control the scheduler properly, you can then schedule different types of workloads, different profiles to different cells. Okay. So this is basically showing the effect of CPU Overcommit. Each virtual machine here had two VCPUs and the machine had 16 physical CPUs. So you see that it peaks at eight virtual machines, basically the exact physical allocation one to one and then you start to over commit so performance goes down. One thing to note though is that at some point when you start reaching memory over commit, then you will see a cliff because of thrashing or excessive phaging. Okay, so let's take a look at the femoral storage. So today out of the box when you run an instance in OpenStack, the image from Glance will be stored on the local hard drive and the compute node. Okay, this is something that you do not necessarily take into consideration, but can affect your performance significantly. There's a trade-off between the number of hard drives you put on your compute node and the performance or, sorry, and the footprint. Okay, so the more hard drives, obviously, the better the performance, assuming you take, you use those hard drives, but the bigger footprint, bigger space in your racks, more power, it will cost you more money. I will also compare how network based storage is with regards to local storage. So basically we tested three profiles, a single system disk, a stripe of seven disks, so this is rate zero, okay, and then network based storage with using fiber channel and SSD drives. Of course, from a performance perspective, this comparison is not fair, but the point to understand here is that if you do not take these things into consideration, if you do not tune, if you do not configure your setup properly, you will take a severe hit. So first thing we test is Nova Boot Time with a range of two to 16 virtual machines. In the red, you see the local system disk. Note that each virtual machine had a different image, okay, so we wanted to make sure that we're not caching anything and not going through page cache, getting a better performance there. So red is the system disk. In blue, you see the seven striped local disks, and in yellow is Cinder Boot from Volume with fiber channel SSDs. So with two virtual machines, it doesn't make much difference. Once we jump to 16 virtual machines, you can see obviously that performance on a single system disk runs to the ground. Boot time goes up per machine significantly. Here you can see that it not only affects the boot time, it also affects the number of virtual machines you can effectively run on a machine. We stopped, so in red, we stopped measuring once the boot time got so bad that it was basically irrelevant, okay. Then we wanted to see how long it takes to perform a snapshot. Now, the way snapshots in Nova happen today is that if it's a live snapshot, you have a sync between, or you have a block rebase in QMU. So basically, QMU starts replicating all IO until it has a full copy of the entire chain. This is a QCAL chain, so it has external snapshots. Then once that copy is finished, we run what is called QMU Image Convert. It basically collapses the entire image into a raw file on the side, and then it uploads it into glass. So we did not measure the time it takes to upload into glass, but we did measure how long it takes to convert the entire chain, basically your root disk. You can see that taking one snapshot, the average snapshot time is relatively okay, but the more snapshots you take on the system disk, the longer it takes. If you're using local RAID, that's the seven-disk stripe, then you can keep your snapshot times low. So this doesn't just affect the runtime, it also affects the time it takes to run provisioning operations and things like that. And the point is that the destination of the snapshot is tunable, so instead of having it by default go to the system disk, you can change this and get much better performance. This is the effect of taking multiple snapshots. You can see that per snapshot the average time goes up, the more snapshots you take concurrently. And now, this is something completely different. So who here is familiar with M1 or virtual machine profiles? Okay, so basically this is equivalent to what you'll see in Amazon. When you want to provision an instance in Amazon, you have a profile which is called M1, and then you have medium, large, and extra large. The difference between large and medium, large has twice the VCPUs, and Keith, can you remind me, memory ratio? M1, medium to large, is it also double the memory? Yeah, okay. So double VCPUs, large to extra large, double VCPUs. So naturally you can run less extra large machines on the same physical machine than medium virtual machines. Now, basically the throughput you get is you get a cap for medium machines at 21 vms. That's 61%. It's basically if you take the baseline, which is the red line here, which is a single machine, you multiply that by 21, 61% of that is 440,000, whatever. I don't remember that. I don't remember the units here that were tested. You can see that there is a difference between running M1 medium machines and large machines. So for large and extra large, you do get capped at the same ratio, but you can get a lot more throughput with running small machines versus running larger virtual machines. This is another look on the same thing. So here instead of looking at the total, the aggregate throughput, you're looking at throughput per virtual machine or the average. So you can see more clearly the red is the baseline, running a single virtual machine on the left, running a single medium virtual machine, and then the blue is the average when you're running 21 such machines. So per virtual machine you get smaller throughput. Another aspect of the same thing, so this is instead of throughput, it's the latency, so here lower is better. On the left, the average app latency when you're running 21 medium, and then the red is the latency when you're running a single virtual machine, same for large and for extra large. Any questions on this before I move on? Okay. So let's look at the scheduler. As I said before, the scheduler only takes into consideration memory allocation, okay? So it does not measure CPU load to make scheduling decisions. If you have different configurations, and this is what I was referring to before, you can see very bad allocation decisions. There are very few tunables, but if you wish, so just to be clear, what happened here is that we have four machines, they all have 24 physical CPUs, but the two left machines have 48 gigabytes of RAM, the two machines on the right have 96, and basically the Nova scheduler kept on scheduling more and more virtual machines on just the two machines on the right. So we reached a point where we have 49 virtual machines on each one of the two right nodes versus a single virtual machine on the left. Okay? There is a tunable that you can use. This is scheduler host subset size. What this tunable does is basically says the scheduler has a list of hosts, the top hosts. I will choose, in this case, the four top hosts and then choose randomly between them. Now here this is a bit cheating because we had only four hosts, so basically we effectively changed the scheduling from memory-based to random-based. Okay? But you can see here what we did was we added 20 virtual machines for every run. Every color is a set of 20 virtual machines, and you can see how the scheduler, in this case, scheduled the virtual machines. The most important thing to take away here is that you really need to keep your, either obviously write your own scheduler that takes more things into consideration or make sure you have homogeneous hardware within an allocation, within a cell or within a group of hosts that are allocated to. Okay? And make sure not to mix and match. Okay, now I will pass it on to Doug. Okay, we've got about five minutes more, so I want to highlight a couple of storage topics about Cinder in Swift and then for the available time and have a little bit more Q&A. Yeah, we'll leave it there. So one of the evolutions that's going on in Cinder is really the richness of the storage topology. So you go back Diablo or so, pretty much you could have any storage you wanted as long as it was block storage, QEMU to a block device. As you got to Folsom, then things like the whole NAS world got brought in, so NFS providers, things like that. One of the more interesting innovations lately is really leveraging some work out of the QEMU community, and I'm personally aware of some contributions with IBM there, where the QEMU emulation layer, part of KVM, rather than even going to the OS to do either file operations or block operations, can call a library. And so what you do is you're starting to see some of these, what I'd call software defined storage, some of you who attended the panel session, there's a lot of debate on that, but basically storage stacks, where there's a portion of the storage stack that lives, we often call it client, on the hypervisor side, and the ability to link that directly in. So in the case of Gluster, Gluster has something called LibGF API, it's client, Sep has something called Liberatus, it's client, and the ability to directly link in. So what happens is an IO comes through QEMU, QEMU by linking to that client library, performs to the next step, and immediately spits that IO request directly out of the network, and the only contact switch into the kernel is related to the network traffic, not storage traffic. What it also means is that client side, which can run into performance saturation, every individual guest picks up a copy of the client. So if I'm running 40 VMs, I've got 40 copies of the client. And so even if there was a client saturation, it's not a shared resource, it's a resource per guest, and therefore it gives us a lot of flexibility on performance. So one of the things that we've been looking at and read at is how do we deliver that where we link these together but make it supportable? And that really is extending QEMU to have loadable modules. So what we wanted to avoid is a situation that happens today, which is when someone links it, then the storage vendor now has to distribute the hypervisor pieces to you, and then it's who's responsible for the update. So a major enhancement, this will be delivered in REL66.5, you would expect the Enterprise Linux community to pick it up, is be able to loadable so your storage provider can provide that client library. It can link in with the hypervisor in a very supportable manner but still really benefit from this really attractive performance improvement. To give you a sense of this, what I want to do is share with you some results using Lustre FS over here. So these results are a pair of back-end nodes that have two socket X86 servers, 12 drive zips using a pre-DX expensive, in this case Dell's favorite back-plane rate with a little bit of right back cash. And we wanted to benchmark that and look at it both for IOPS and bandwidth. And what we're measuring is not aggregate performance, but how much performance we can deliver to an individual hypervisor node. And what you can see over here is for reasonable size IOs doing sequential IOs, 64K, we're delivering just north of a gigabyte per second, and guess what, with the 10 gigi network, that's wire saturated. You'll see the performance at half that for writes, but that's because it's a replicated write. So every user write creates two writes. So again, it's network limited performance over here. Random IO, the performance is a little bit different. So I'm showing this as IOPS instead. And what you see over here is in fact read performance that tops out at about 2.2K IOPS. Why is it topping out there? 12 drives, large form factor drives, generally 100 IOPS per drive. Guess what, 24 drives is going to give you about that expected performance. And this is really highlights if you're using something like a Gluster FS or SF, the decisions you make on the drive technology, use 15K RPM drives versus 7200 RPM drives have a big effect because the larger form factor drives can be like three times more cost effective over there. So that's an important trade-off. So it gives you a sense of the write for read performance and of course a write you'd want to have replicated. In the case of Gluster, it's two-way replication with backplane rate. So it's about half. If you had a technology that did three-way replication, you'd see that as about a third because you're conserving three head-seeks on the spindle. That gives you a sense of the performance. Now, what I intentionally did in these results is we had VMs where the virtual image was 48 gigs, a large number of them, eight. And so that guaranteed that the workload was so large that it wouldn't fit in the buffer cache in your storage pool. If we ran something that had much smaller image size, you'd see much higher IOPS rate, but that's because you're not exercising the spindles. You're having operations that are hitting in the buffer cache of your storage serving nodes. So our next step here is really to look at two things. Start to look at VM cache and starting to leverage SSDs because VMs have hotspots and that's a very promising technology. And then some of the vendors such as LSI, and you'll see this with others, are starting to bundle SSDs in with the cheap storage to do hotpot management. And so what you'll see is substantial performance improvements in that space. Skip the next two, and I wanted to highlight one other thing. So one other thing that Red Hat's been working on with the Swift community is extending Swift from today, it's both a proxy layer, and then a collection of rings that do the persistence. There's something that only comprehends that but allows the storage to have pluggable backends. So you can have POSIX backends in addition to that, particularly if you're dealing with storage interoperability. We use this to provide multi-protocol access. One of the things that brings up is that the libraries that are used for a lot of OpenStack use a mechanism called eventlet. What that allows us to take as an individual thread is managed by the OS, have multiple individual operations going on, and it's a lightweight threading model where a thread of execution when it performs a network operation yields to the next operation. One of the things that happens, so we see this both in the Swift ring structure as well as pluggable backends, like Luster uses, is that when you perform a disk IO, the yield operation doesn't happen. So that thread blocks, which means other operations that we're sharing that thread have to wait for the block in IO to complete. So one of the things that really comes up is if one was to use the default configuration for Swift, it tries to have a large number of clients per thread, 1024, but have a very small number of these threads. So what we're showing is the results when that happens, which is as you increase the amount of operations, individual clients sharing that thread in one stalling the other, and what you start to see is a very significant latency push out. So there's some fairly simple tuning changes that grow the number of workers and really minimize the number of clients per worker thread that have a big effect. My understanding is IBM for vanilla Swift has published some similar results where they again show certainly reducing a max client from 1024 to something more like 32 to 64 avoids these latency push outs you'll see. So I think with that, we're pretty much running out of time, so maybe one or two questions if anyone has that. Otherwise, we're certainly around afterwards. Thank you.


Hey guys, it's Nate, aka The Foot Accountant. Welcome back to the channel. We've got the best Icon Upgrade SBC pack of the year, most likely dropping today on this game. And it's guaranteed to shake up the market at least a little bit, along with potentially bring us some profit on some of these investments that we have bought in the last couple of days. I want to talk about that SBC a lot today. And also, what we're expecting for content, more FC Pro Live players coming into packs today. There's so much to discuss, along with yesterday's content as well. If you're in for it, drop a thumbs up, and of course, subscribe if you're new. Let's start with yesterday's content, because we did have a couple of player SBCs that are moving some things. One's okay, and one's actually pretty decent. This is the one that's okay. The Ren and Lodi FC Pro Live left back, Brazilian left back in the league one. W links, high-high work rates, four skills, three-week foot, left-footed, of course, on the left side. It's what you want. And a really good pro. Umut, a very, very good pro that could get this card upgrades for sure in the coming months, as points earned, get the inform upgrades, as we are learning with these FC Pro Live cards. It is all about the pro that is going to represent them. The price in this SBC, according to Footbin, is around 80,000 coins. It's not bad. I don't love it, but it's not bad. It's really good that he's got a good pro linked up to this card. But I think, man, I look at my even-favorited SBCs right here. I'm halfway through Baccia. I compare Baccia to Ren and Lodi. I know that she's not a league one, but she is French. And I just think that that left-back card to me looks so much better than Ren and Lodi. It's the passing. It's the dribbling. It's the playstyle plus, and people just say that Baccia is so OP in game. So I think I'm going to stick with Baccia here as a left-back and not go after Lodi. But if you're really interested in Lodi, he does have upside because of the pro that represents him. We got an SBC as well yesterday, another one of those, a part of the puzzle objective. Make sure you get it done. It is the Oberyn objective that was dropped for a small pack, nothing too crazy. And then, of course, we had the Schmeichel goalkeeper icon SBC, which was expected to drop, and it did. Now, this SBC actually has a very, very high percentage of upvote guys. 85% upvote on Peter Schmeichel, 250,000 coins to craft. The highest rated squad inside of it is an 87 rated. You've got an 85 rated in there, and then an 83, and then it's just gold, silver, and bronze to finish it off. So it seems very easy. You get tradable packs back, I believe. Yeah, tradable packs back. It's a good goalkeeper card. Like, this is an icon goalkeeper. And I think a lot of the reason why there's a lot of high-pronged Schmeichel is this is an SBC that you can do, that you can put it in your team, and you can honestly forget about it for, like, the rest of at least the next couple of months in this game. That is the draw to this card. Now, his card on the market's dropped off a ton. He's 200,000 coins, maybe even a little bit below that. After this SBC came out, this is because a lot of people are doing it. Goalkeepers as well. I look at Ter Stegen, Inform is down a lot. He was 80,000 coins. I believe he's 70,000 coins now. After the release of the SBC, I'm looking at other icon goalkeepers like Cassius dropped 100,000 coins yesterday. This Schmeichel SBC is one that is garnering a lot of hype because it's pretty easy to do. And it's a really good goalkeeper card. As you guys maybe know, like, it actually, in this year's game, I feel like makes a big difference to have a competent goalkeeper. Like, I remember in the beginning of the game using an 80 or 78-rated goalkeeper. And once I got Ederson and packed him, I was like, wow, night and day difference. And I think this is going to allow people to level up their goalkeeper. And that's why there is so much hype for that SBC. So in my opinion, though, I think I would maybe wait. I would just maybe wait on that Schmeichel because we have had a goalkeeper evo that is leaked. There's no news on that. But, you know, that's such an easy SBC to do. Maybe wait and see how your team shakes up and shakes out as we go through Black Friday. And then maybe considering, consider doing that SBC if it still fits your club. That's just my take. Goalkeeper SBCs, I don't know. I don't end up doing a lot of them just because I usually end up using somebody who I have packed or maybe done through an SBC or an evolution. But it is completely up to you on that one. Now, we got to go to Evolutions and talk about this. This is the leaked evolution that we had a couple of days ago during the week. We talked about a right-wing evolution with a pace maximum of 91. And we got that evolution yesterday. At least it's pretty easy to do. The upgrade is decent. I think you get, what is it, plus four dribbling, plus three passing. Wait, there's actually a bigger dribbling upgrade than just four. You get two different dribbling upgrades, plus four and then plus three. So plus seven dribbling on the final card, plus five shooting, plus seven passing as well as even a further pace upgrade. A lot of the most popular cards for this did go up in value. Ooh, I've even got Guler and Baku in the club who are some pretty popular evo cards from this. It's only seven games. I think if I did the math correctly, play five rivals matches. Oh, it's nine games. Play five rivals matches and then win four rivals or champs. I mean, technically you can combine some of these level two challenges to get it done in nine games. It's not a bad evo, but I think people are starting to get a little bit, I don't know, maybe just disappointed by how these evolutions have been panning out. I even tweeted this out yesterday. This is called the relentless winger evolution. We've already had a relentless winger and it was a left sided player. It was a paid evolution. And you know, this being also called relentless winger, I thought, Hey, what if we had the opportunity to upgrade the already evo relentless winger evolution cards to a higher level? That's kind of what I was hoping for. But alas, it is not that is a completely new evolution for again, very low rated cards. And I think that's where the disappointment lies in some of these evos is you're not able to put in some of those middle to high tier players like we got a taste of during Centurions, right? When we were putting in Marcus Rente and Crystal Dunn and Chow Many into the evolutions box to box. But then again, instead of playing 40 games, here we are only having to play nine to get some of these upgrades. So definitely if you take a look at the market, you can see Doku is very popular. His inform is down because people are doing the evolution. I think mildewake is very popular as well. He's a card that's still up a little bit in value. But once again, it is, it has to be said guys sell into the hype. This guy was 7k yesterday, 7,000 coins. And he's 1500 now, because it was a leaked evolution sell into the hype 10 times out of 10 on any of these evolutions that do end up being leaked. Now really quickly before we get into today's content and everything today, we got to look at these FC pro live cards because we mentioned yesterday's video that the Saturday flips could be money and they were of course we have to talk about Karamoa. I did not expect this card to go up as much as he did. Remember Felipe Anderson from Centurions? It was almost one of those scenarios once again. It basically was one of those scenarios. He went from 50,000 coins. I actually bought three of them to list overnight. I thought he was going to go up 10k or 15k, right? I bought them at 53. I sold them at 63 or 64,000 coins because I listed overnight.  Now there was probably a little bit of pump and dump that was happening as this card was rising. People saw it getting rare. And once these cards get super duper rare and they're pretty low in their price range, like stuff like this can happen. He has a lot of hype. As I tweeted out yesterday, he's almost the same stats as Kolomani and he's 60k and Kolomani is 800,000 coins. I think Kolomani's price is still ridiculous, still too expensive. But this card had a ton of hype and it had a crazy rise yesterday. Now he's back down to about 60k, which is where he kind of his normal price is. But a lot of these other cards had good rises as well. Locatelli I think went from 70 something k, 83,000 coins to 102k. So we had a 20,000 coin rise. Now he is 70k right now. As a lot of these players dropped off yesterday because we had lightning rounds again. Sadio Mane going from 780 all the way down to 530 where he is now. There were lightning rounds again yesterday. And I'm actually going to check this door right now because I'm recording this video a little bit early. And this is the exact time that they dropped him on Friday night. I want to see if they did it again. Did they do it really quick? We have to look. I don't see any lightning rounds in here. Okay, they did not drop the lightning rounds again. So that was Friday night. They did the late night rounds. They did not do the late night rounds Saturday into Sunday. So that is interesting to know. But those players were really good fluctuations. I think they're going to be decent fluctuations to trade with today as well in multiple different areas. I'm not buying any of them around squad battle rewards or anything like that. But definitely keep an eye on those because they're cheap. People want to try them out because it's different cards with decent upgrades. Now enough of that. Let's talk about the icon pack because we've yapped enough. We're talking about an icon pack today. It's been in the code now for I think what maybe a week actually it's been in the code it just did the math for nine days because today 10 days today is the 19th and this was tweeted out on the 9th of November. The base icon max 89 single player pack was added to the code at the same time as the base hero pack and that pack is going away today. So we would expect you know according to EA's normal schedule that this would be our icon pack right the hero icon saga continues one week hero one week icon this is what we think will be our pack today and if you look at who's going to be packable from this finally an icon upgrade pack that you can get some big boys from eto, jarzino, cantana, franc ribéry, caca, worth two million coins in my book, Edwin van der Sar.  Now how much is this SBC going to cost? The one icon SBC that we had last year the first one was the base icon upgrade it was 230,000 coins but this year SBCs have been a little bit cheaper right hero packs have been cheap like one squad or two cheap squads even the icon packs this year 115k and then 156k just because fodder had risen by the time we got the second max 87 if I had to guess guys I think this SBC is going to come in around the 200,000 coin price range today and if we're thinking about how can you get to a 200,000 coin price I was actually just looking at the Schmeichel SBC. The Schmeichel SBC has an 87 rated squad for 150k and an 85 rated squad for 63,000 coins I think it's very possible it could be an 83 and an 85 sorry an 85 and an 87 rated squad today for this icon SBC or somewhere around there now would we need to invest in fodder well a lot of us already have I do believe fodder can rise today guys because icon packs bring so much hype but what ratings would you want to focus on if there's going to be an 87 rated squad 87s could go up but I think 88s would go up even more I think 88s I'm glad that I stocked a bunch of my club and on my transfer list because if we get an 87 rated squad guys these cards could be going up the most today because if you take a look at some of the cheapest ways to do an 87 rated squad it includes 88s I also think 84s have a good chance of going up if there's an 85 rated squad an 86 rated squad even an 87 or an 88 like let me show you the 87 rated squad here of Casper Schmeichel the easiest way to do this is to use multiple 88 rated players 187 and then a couple 84s like that's according to footprint the cheapest way to do an 87 rated squad so I know I'm really like going hard on the 87 rated like it might not be an 87 rated squad today but anywhere between the 84 and 87 and 88 rated card mark I think could rise today on this game and honestly a lot of you guys may have already invested in those so if you have those cards and they go up today maybe it's a day that you sell but also at the same time what we've been investing for all along is a potential rise in the prices of these fodder cards over Black Friday so if you don't want to sell today and you want to keep holding on you could continue to do that as well just kind of depends on what you're going for this is the first SBC I'm expecting to make fodder start to rise into Black Friday and ultimately continue to rise maybe even as we get into Black Friday as well and throughout that whole time frame we have to talk about informs as well informs are down bad there are they were 21 22,000 coins right now they're sitting at about 23k if we get an inform requirement in the icon SBC today I could see informs rising I would focus on 84 rated informs if you can especially the 84 rated informs if they're around 21 to 22k that are not in the current team of the week those would be my favorites if you were going to buy anything in an informed department and risk that a little bit because those I mean Zancheng goes in packs so that's one I'd be very careful with but any 84 rated informs at 22k or maybe 23k if it's an out of packs inform could rise if there is a requirement but a little bit more risky there just because those are still inflated now also with an icon pack coming today how's that going to impact the rest of the market I definitely would expect to see like we normally do on Sundays when we get these icon and these hero packs I would expect to see some prices dropping impacts cards right if it's a two segment SBC for the icon pack you're probably going to see some prices drop from tradable supply of people opening those packs also people selling cards to go and afford the SBC and if it's a 200,000 coin SBC people might have to sell a little bit more in order to go buy enough fodder to get it done so I definitely would expect to see player prices maybe even like Neymar dropping Neymar had a nice rebound yesterday from 130 all the way to 150 he might be in the 120 lows 120 125 today and that's the kind of drop that I would be expecting not like Neymar going to 100,000 coins but maybe like 120,000 coins a slight 10 not even 10 that would be like a five to seven percent drop on a card like Neymar that's what I would be expecting today across a lot of the market a lot of the market prices as we'll talk about are still pretty steady there hasn't been a ton of panic on a lot of these cards some of them are down we were expecting prices to drop and I guess as of right now there's just not a really big catalyst to make prices drop that much really let's just down what 7k you know just down a little bit car chow he's down just a little bit go vu cold down just the smidge I was looking at centurion's cards you know Gioro's down but like mendy's still over a mill Tomori's down a little bit Rooney hasn't moved much a lot of the market doesn't look like it's being panic sold at the moment some cards are dropping as expected but I think I was expecting a little bit bigger drops yesterday and maybe today will be the catalyst that kind of helps I mean people panic sell I guess is what we're kind of looking for but maybe we won't have too much panic selling until more towards the middle to end of this week after the SBC today if there's not a lot of hype for the upcoming Thunderstruck and Black Friday promo and all that jabs coming on later this week so maybe the panic selling is going to be pushed off until later but I do think there will be some price drops today with the SBC and we got to talk about these FC pro live cards as well because there's some investments on these cards that we might be able to make as soon as today in this price drop off of course I want to I want to show you guys something and investing with these cards if you take a look on the main screen of ultimate team it'll show a little image here I don't know where it's at I was having trouble finding it earlier here it is so the way that these matches work we're only going to want to invest in group a right away because those are going to be the cards and the group a pros that play their matches first so that means their cards get the first potential to upgrade right that first upgrade point is at three points so one win in this group so Jean Roe who's going to be coming out today in the menu of these Mane, Malin, Lodi the SBC and Kolomani are the only cards that could potentially get upgraded after the first weekend of games if you kind of notice here group a plays first then b then c then d they kind of they go like that it's kind of like a snake draft order right they go abcd then they snake it back to the beginning go abcd once again with these games and that's kind of how it works so the first weekend will be those five cards potentially getting upgraded then in December it'll be those five right and you move from group to group to group so the best investments technically might be Kolomani, Mane, Malin and Jean Roe on the market sometime in the next couple of days because those are the cards that would play first and have the earliest and I mean first chance at an upgrade so that's how I'm kind of looking at these cards and thinking about investing I mean of course you've got Black Friday coming this week as well so it's not something that I would go crazy on but that's just something to keep an eye on as well remember the triple threat cards they rose up a lot last week from where they were on Sunday I'm not saying with Black Friday this week that the same thing is going to happen all I'm saying is these cards are very cheap in fc pro live they're live they're upgrading live cards almost always rise out of packs so some of them could be going up later on this week and today could be a decent buy time for those we'll reconvene and talk about that on tomorrow's video as we head into Monday to see how much they've dropped and if they still look like a good investment now like we mentioned the rest of the market not a whole lot of panic just yet I do expect to see more panic for sure but maybe it will be later on during the week as I think you know a loading screen or more packs being added to the code would definitely create a lot more panic on the market and make people start thinking about oh my goodness what is to come with Black Friday and all that but at least right now it's not going too crazy just yet but we'll see if the icon sbc changes that today now other Sunday content will we get another evo I mean think about it guys we still have to get that fc pro live evo that seems to be purely cosmetic that gives us the red pick colored cards to emulate red picks I don't know how that's going to work I hope you actually get an upgrade on the card even if it's just a simple plus one or plus two if it's just a here put this card in and it turns red after playing a couple of games like like what like you know what I'm saying so that could be something that comes out today we'll see back to back days of evos I don't know if that's happened so far this year at all but it could you know they've dropped evos on Sundays before also the mini release as we just looked at some of those player items on the home screen genro van den boomen and I believe the Swedish center back that is from the Syria what's his name again hain it's behind my face camera now but it's hain van den boomen and genro today that I believe are going to be in the mini release everybody else has been accounted for everybody else either has an sbc an objective or is the card that is in packs so mini release today we'll add a couple more cards to packs and then potentially another player sbc as well um Sundays you know friday saturday sunday usually means player sbc players bc players bc so watch out for maybe a leak today as well I don't know if there's any other leaks that we have at the moment or player sbc's um I think all the ones that have dropped that have been leaked I have been dropped so that's kind of what I'm thinking for content today it's really the icon pack that is the big piece today that we are watching I picked up a money um speaking of these pro live cards I picked up a money at 506 as he was dropping so much and it looks like he's back up a little bit right now you know I don't know if I'm going to invest in any of these cards today after squad battle rewards I know a lot of people have been playing squad battles which would potentially mean that there will be people wanting to go out on the market today and buy buying some of these cards um I mean they had crazy rises yesterday they could have some rises today as well but with the icon pack coming I'm going to be a little bit more careful with these today um and probably just pass on trading or investing with any of those but if you want to go for it man people do seem to like these pro cards because they do move and the fact that tovon was 100k and is now 73k like who wouldn't want to wake up today play some champs and try that card out so watch for market movements there and uh yeah last day of the weekend before we get into a very very interesting week with a lot of black friday discussion to be had but it's going to be an interesting day on content today with the icon sbc and whatever else we may get I should be live streaming that link is down below in the description if you want to see us open the icon packs today place in footchamps weekend league and watch the market and how it all moves today if you're excited for that today drop a thumbs up on the video if you did enjoy it as well comment down below if you have any questions and subscribe if you're new I will see you guys in the stream today it's been an eight for the count and have a good one peace out


One of the most mysterious places in all of India is that of the Elephanta. No one knows who created the enigmatic masterpiece found here, and despite massive destruction of artifacts during colonial rule, enough still exists here to suggest that it was achieved with higher understanding and technology that is long forgotten in this modern era. Wait, do you hear this? The Elephanta Caves found on Elephanta Island are of such stunning proportions that you could consider them on par with the Kailasa Caves and temples. Just like at Kailasa, these cave temples are dedicated to the Hindu god Shiva. Hewn out of solid rock, this is another example of an extreme masterpiece in India, the undertaking would have been enormous but no record of who built this or when it was built exists anywhere. The Portuguese inhabited this place in the 17th century but gave up control to the British in 1661. The island was ransacked by the English and in 1864 they tried to move a gigantic ancient elephant who gave the island its name. It used to dominate the south shore until they tried to ship it to England but instead they broke it into pieces and just left it in ruins until it was reconstructed many years later.  The ancient history of the island is unknown in either Hindu or Buddhist records. Archaeological studies have uncovered many remains that suggest the small island had a rich culture past. The regional history is first recorded in the Gupta Empire era but these do not explicitly mention these caves. This made the origins and the century in which Elephanta Caves were built a subject of much debate and mystery. They have been variously dated, mostly between from late 5th to late 8th century but this is based on the dating of other cave temples in this region. Colonial era historians suggested the caves were built by the Rashtrakutas in the 7th century or after, a hypothesis primarily based on some similarities with the Elelora Caves. This theory however has been discredited by later findings and is a prime example of false dating of ancient historical wonders of the world. The dating of these places should be considered to be many thousands of years older than is suggested by rough guesses. The Elephanta Caves re-emerged as a center of Hindu worship and according to British administrative records the government charged the pilgrims a temple tax at least since 1872. In 1903 the Hindus petitioned the government to waive these fees which the British agreed to on three Shiva festival days if Hindus agreed. The caves were otherwise left in ruins. The largest and most significant of the caves, cave one, and it closely resembles the Dumar Lena Cave and Elelora, another world heritage site, suggesting the same device or technique may have been used in the building here. Who built these caves, no one knows. How was it done, nobody knows. When it was done, a complete mystery. We pass the Vedic texts off as mythology, but if we were to tell you that within the ancient texts there is a machine that is described as being capable of building this place by vaporizing the rock the machine is called the Baumastra. This high-tech machine would be able to quickly drill into the rock and basically vaporize it. This could change the rock into air. The device was mentioned multiple times in the ancient Vedic texts which was used to mine precious stones and metals. It is possible that the Baumastra machine described in the Vedic texts was really a technological device that existed on Earth thousands of years ago. Why wouldn't a machine exist in the distant past? If they described it then that description must have been based on something they saw in the first place so they had the idea for a machine capable of such feats. They envisioned it so why would it not be the case that this is how it was done? The Sculptive Cave system is a relic to both Hinduism and Buddhism, but the main cave symbolizes the former's influence and surrepetitiously overshadows the ladders. In fact it boasts the ten colossal sculptures of Lord Shiva. Each and every sculpture, big or small, weaves a larger story, one of the re-emergence of Hinduism. Here we are taught the importance of ancient history and the magic that is conjured when it paradoxically embraces its enemy, mythology. What do you guys think of this stunning work undertaken at this island? Comments below and thank you for watching.