The following is a presentation of TFNN. The TFNN Bull Bear Training Hour. Every training day, live at 10 a.m. Eastern. Call now, toll free at<PHONE_NUMBER> or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. The TFNN Bull Bear Training Hour. Now, Tommy and Tommy O'Brien. Welcome folks, appreciate your growl and our problem with us out here. We have the Dow Industries down 324, Nasdaq off 126, S&P's off 43, Gold, Gold Contract up 580, we're at 1287. You get Silver Flat, $14.80 an ounce, Light Sweet Crew down 77 cents, $61.34 a barrel. Now it's going to be interesting that we had those numbers and bottom line is that it looked like we had a draw, but guess what, the market is still selling that baby off.  Notes and bonds, guess what folks, ever ready battery, this is like Groundhog Day. Higher price, lower yield. You get the 10-year note up a half a point, $124.07, 30-year up 25 ticks, $149, and $king dollar, $king dollar down 313 ticks, trading $9707, the euro is at 112.5, the yen is at 109.5, and the pound is at 130 to one U.S. dollar. Let's go over to our man, Mr. Kevin Hicks, a TD Ameritrade, think of swim as we do, each Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. And don't forget folks, you want to understand option, option strategies, futures, great program, every trading day, 11 to 12 Eastern Standard Time, and you want to know defined risk, guess what, you better get your head wrapped around defined risk because just give it 20, 30, 40 minutes and these S&Ps can be up 20, 30, or down 20 or 30. I guess so. Kevin Hicks, what's going on? Good morning, Tom, good morning, Tommy. Yes, Tom, this is a time when you want to have your units covered in some way, shape, or form because this is a classic definition right here of uncertainty in markets, right? For this whole trading day, there's going to be uncertainty. And markets on level, some degree of certainty, you know, the end of the day today or tomorrow morning, whatever it'll come, but comments last night that threw a little more uncertainty into this and this market doesn't like it right now. Yeah, you know, we're looking at the VIX, Kevin, right? Can you go over these numbers for us for the VIX again because for the new listeners too, it's really curious to understand how this works, folks. So this is pretty cool, man, right? When you really wrap your head around it. There's an indication. So it's 31.8% and 62%, but you're 2.3%. Okay. Once you get there, so that's what I mean by that is a third of the days. This is the FPX now. If it averages a 1% move, that justifies a 16 VIX. Okay. Now, where we are right now, closer to a 24 VIX, that is same parameters, third of the day percent move in the FPX. It justifies a 24 VIX and a 2% move. VIX level right is inaccurate. Is it too low? Is it too high? That's the way mathematicians and people look at the VIX and how it correlates to how the overall market is moving. I love that whole thing. You know why, folks? What happens is that we haven't had high volatility for a while, so it's important to understand that, you know, like the VIX, as Kevin just said, is at 23.3%. Well, you can expect, you know, a percent and a half move either way. I mean, it's not telling you which way, but the bottom line is that that's a cool thing to know coming into the market. That's where the market's implying, and then you get to decide if you think that's going to happen and then you're either buying or selling volatility, right? Exactly. Right, exactly. Because you may look at this market and say, huh, based on the way this market's moving, maybe that 23 VIX is a little high if I think the market may stop here and go back up. Because if the market goes back up, you know, the VIX will probably come down a bit. You think, well, boy, this market is much more volatile. It's looking like a 2% move, you know, some of the days, or it's making a 1.5% move more than a third of the days, maybe two out of three days. That would justify a higher number. So these are the things that it gives you. If you know that rule and you keep that rule handy, it's a way to look at the market, look at the level of the VIX, and make a judgment on implied volatility. Yeah, so cool. So cool, no doubt. And, you know, I switched gears on you for a second, but I'm sure you saw this, man. Stamps.com, man. I mean, I guess they, you know, once they stop doing business with the post office, if you haven't seen this yet, folks, it's pretty incredible. I mean, they announced the last time that they stopped doing business with the post office because they wanted to do business with everyone. And the stock went from 203 down to 82. Well, we just went from 82 down to 37 overnight, psycho. Well, yeah, there it is. I've got it up on my board right now. Looks like it's down 54.8% trading 37-60. It's pretty amazing. You're on margin, you owe money. Oh, man. It's pretty remarkable. Forget that. That's something else. Yeah, and that is a stock guy's debt. The $200. Yeah, no.  As of last night, I think the market cap was like a billion and a half. Yeah. And they started at like $6 billion. So they've lost $4.5 billion. By making that decision. Yeah, I don't know how you have growth in the future if you're not around. Yeah, that is not an impressive chart. And that's why, you know, implied volatility, if you're trading, even in this name, implied volatility will, right now, that doesn't mean it won't eventually. That's what professional traders love about implied volatility. Isn't that cool? Yeah. All right. And folks, okay, remember something, though, okay, all these programs are archived. Rerun what Kevin just said there, because if you really get to start understanding the option market, that's crucial to understand because all it means is that you get explosive move and then it calms down. Sure, right.  You know, you get volatility comes in, calms down for a while, volatility comes in again. Yep. You know, and... And it reacts, right? It reacts to the news that's out there. Look at the whole chip space this morning. Yes. Based on what Intel came out and said yesterday. Right? The whole chip space is moving. Yeah, and what Kevin's talking about, folks, Intel is what tanked the market yesterday at 20 minutes of four. I was on the air, Kevin, I'm saying what just happened here, and then I realized that was Intel. I think they almost came out early. I don't think they meant to come out with that because of the clothes, you know what I mean? Because it's like most times you wait till after the clothes, and it was so close to the clothes, I says, well, yeah. But I mean, there's virtually no stock in that sector that's not being beat up because of that news out of Intel. Oh, there's no doubt. I mean, and what the news was, folks, is that they said, listen, things are gonna be flat for a year and maybe a little bit lower. So it's like, okay. Yeah, single... Low single-digit growth for the next three years, they said. That's heavy. That sounds like dead money. Dead money. Listen, you want fast money, folks. 45 minutes from now, outstanding program, understanding option, option strategies. Kevin, you have a great one. Safe one. Have a great weekend. We look forward to speaking to you next Tuesday. Great talking to you guys. Have a great day. Thanks, Kevin. Stay right there, folks. Tommy and I are coming right back. The Taz Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence as you begin your trading day? 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TFNN.com, educating investors. 4-8 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. I was down 321. We get the Nasdaq off 121. S&Ps are off 42. Let's see, I want to see what actually, so we had Gold catch a bid here. Yeah, we sure did. We had some currency action as well, I believe. Yeah, so let's see this move. Just before he came on the... So was that the 830 move? 930. 930, okay. So you got juice inside of this. Gold's been pushing into this swing point the last two days with volume. Now, it hasn't been able to basically hold price.  You're dealing with the $1290. $1290 right there is at $279. So we're going to get the volume out here today too. We'll see where we can get the crack. So at 930, what come out at 930? I guess it's just the volatility, right? Yeah, I think so. You know, it's not like... That's just going to go because currency is just taking a look. Yeah, the dollar came down south too pretty quickly. Yeah. Same time? Yeah, same time. So that's the dollar, there's your Euro, the inverse, you get the end, and then the pound as well. So that's going to come in in a bit. That's 950. Yeah, so 930. But you can see that basically 930, right? So maybe that was the... There was a tweet out by one of the China news dailies that they didn't think the... They were told that they didn't think the deal was going to get done, but I don't think anyone thinks the deal's going to get done. I mean, it's already Thursday, right? Yes, it is Thursday, exactly. You're not going to walk into town and get a deal done. Exactly, man, for sure. The real question is, is that... Are they going to call a truce? Or is it 1201, bottom line, 25%? They're going to have a very limited time to negotiate before those kick in at 1201. Yeah. So, natural gas? Yes. So it's Thursday. We get natural gas numbers at 1030. Let's see, I'm going to close out some of these windows real quick. Check out oil, right? And that's what we were talking about even yesterday, backing things up. So there's 1030 on the bar. We're trading at like 6150. You did have a huge draw. You made it up by 1130, which would have been a nice trade for volatility. I mean, you're almost 85 cents in that hour following the news. But, like we said, I mean, you're back down below where we were at yesterday, which is pretty surprising. That's it, it is. Because it's just the opposite of what we've been talking about the last month, right? It sure is, for sure. Excuse me, let me close these out. All right, we're going to take a look at natural gas. We started off with the 11 a.m. We're looking at the June contract. We're trading at 2587. So we could have exposure from 260 in either direction if we wanted to. 1.3 penny head start to the downside. A little much maybe.  And like we always say, you can always take one side. We look at both sides because you don't even have to pick a direction. But if you were ever bullish, man, these are where these really become affordable. You're getting in at 2605.  You're up to the upside. Now the bearish one is going to be the one with intrinsic value. A little bit more expensive because you got about $13 of that 18. It's just straight value. Five of it being premium. You got about five of premium on this side. So you're looking at $23. Okay, 2.3 cents. And like I said, if you're bearish, not that bad, right? Because you're already a penny and a half to the downside. Let's see. So going back, let's see what the noons line up. Again, the contract's trading at $258.7. All right, we're going to get the same exact contracts. So it's nice here. There's the difference between an 11 a.m. and noon. So it says that paying five bucks, you're going to pay seven bucks for the bullish. And it's going to be probably a similar $7 in premium plus the intrinsic value. So for noon, you're looking at $26. Not bad? No. 2.3, 2.6, right? Yeah. And let's just see how the dailies line up real quick, too. Excuse me. $2.30. So there's $2.60. Now the bullish one says seven's going to be $12. And the bearish one is going to line up at $26. So $26.12, $38 to go, which is basically almost called $40 with commissions. So you need four pennies away from $2.60. You have till $2.30. And we'll see what happens, man. And I believe they're looking at, can you go to Whisper again? They're looking for a build, right? Just for a quick dump. Let's put in the number. What do we put in? $140. We put $140. They're looking for $85. Pretty small. Yeah, $85 built. So let me just look at this contract for a second. Let's see. NGM. NGM, maybe? NGM. NGM. Yep, that's it. Okay. So $258. I think the live one's at like $258.6, but pretty close to right where we're at. Oh, look at that. So that's, we got a build. We should have put a small build in. Oh well. This looks to me like it was. That's a good sign of strength yesterday. So we'll see where it goes. So what do you think? Bring us with you. Maybe one. I'd say that, yeah, this wants to go higher. Okay. Let's go test the high of yesterday. That's $261. Okay. That's only three pennies though. $261. Yeah. And realistically, we're almost up to $259 right now in live time. So let's go to our man, Paul and Henderson, Nevada. What's going on, brother? What's going on, guys? Good morning, Paul. How you been, man? Good morning. I've been great. Trading has been obeyed. Something else, I'll tell you that. Yeah, I've been thinking that. I was doing over 6,000. I saw headlines. We haven't heard from Paul in a while. He's busy. Yeah. Bitcoin over 6,000. That looks good. I mean, there's a big resistance there. So, you know, we'll see if they could hold it and take that next leg up. But yeah, I mean, trading, you know, just across the board in the general market, big move down has been pretty intense. And it's just been so much action. You know, I can only focus on a few things. So what happens here, and this is pretty cool, Paul, right? When you're trading, when you have high volatility, it's always much better for traders, you know? Some traders don't like it, but I can tell you that you'd like it. Because what happens is that if you're actually trading folks, I mean, getting in and out and don't get greedy, you can really get things done fast. Okay? But you need to have low volatility. Sure. Because if it just goes slow, it doesn't work, man. Do you know what I mean?  When you get volatility, you know, you can be wrong. You get out. You can be wrong. You get out. You get in, you're right. I mean, it's just, it's one of those deals. You've got enough movement both ways. So... And today there's been volatility both ways. Like, I'm calling about the SOLXL, but just real quick, like this trade desk to the downside, I mean, this thing is just getting demolished. And then the flip side of that coin, you got something like Roku, which is breaking all-time highs. Yeah. In a crazy market like this. So it's pretty, it's pretty intense. It is. It just moves it, you know, all the way around. Oh, look at this trade desk. Oh, my God. Man, you get some smoke in here. What the heck happened here? So this is, this is online advertising technology, right? Yeah. That is, man, like, if you're holding that long, I mean, it's getting all the way into that big gap on its last earnings, getting really close to it already in one day. Yeah. It's intense. Man, it's pretty wild. Is that when you actually look at their numbers, numbers don't look bad. They must have guided down for the year. Yeah, they did. There's something in there that is not... They beat on revenue, basically. Yeah. They beat on earnings per share. Yeah. They beat on fiscal year, EBITDA. They beat on fiscal year revenue, man. Yeah. They beat on everything, but something in there. Yeah. Stay right there, Paul. Stay right there, folks. Coming right back. Off-phone number's<PHONE_NUMBER>. We have it out on 400. Nasdaq off 147. S&P's down 50. Taking that leg, next leg down, folks. Coming right back. Hi, folks. Tom O'Brien here. If you'd like to get my daily newsletter and market insights, then now is a great time to sign up for a 30-day free trial. Every morning by 9.30, I send out my morning letter to subscribers with market commentary on a variety of markets, currencies, and commodities to keep investors up-to-date on the day's trading action. Included in market insights are specific buy and sell recommendations for stocks, ETFs, and even options, which stops and price targets included for every trade in my newsletter. If you'd like to try my newsletter risk-free for 30 days, then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find market insights under Trading Newsletters. I use my years of trading experience to bisect and dissect the market every morning and give my subscribers the most important information they need to know for the day ahead. 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We've got stockpiles rising 85 billion cubic feet, pretty much right at median estimate, which was 86, jumping back to the chart, see how we're trading. Excuse me, we're at about 258, so down about half a penny from that number. Not a huge reaction, as you might expect, pretty much right on the number. Paul from Henderson, folks, we're talking. Well, we're going to talk to Sox. What are we going to talk, Paul? Yes, I want to take a look at the SOXL and kind of I'll call you in situations like this because I'm trying to, you know, get better and better at the trader, and you just spoke about being greedy and to think here, I set this trade up anticipating it was going to do an ABC down after it topped. And I went short on May 1st at 83, at 183. Yep. And then you had a couple of day bounce, and I thought I was going to get stopped out, but I was going to put my stop above the high. Yep. And now, you know, we're all the way down here, and I'm curious kind of how you would look at this from your perspective, and I'm thinking that it's probably a good time to take profit, but perhaps we could get all the way to where it broke out down at 137. Okay, so what, this is a great question, and particularly because when you're either in the market, so what I do is this, and sometimes I forget to do it, most of the times I don't. When you're in a market like this, folks, right, what you don't want to do and you're in a winning position is sell it all, or close the trade. What you want to do is put the order in to close the trade, in case there's a spike, and you just say, okay, that's all right, do you know what I mean? A time on order below or stop? No, stop above. So he shot, you shot this, Paul, right? Yeah, yeah. Yeah, okay, so watch. So what I would do is this, you know, you're down 16 bucks so you're in the money, $16. You can do it two different ways. You can say, okay, listen, it needs more breathing room than the last bow, which is 150-190. Okay, then you could look at it and say, okay, the big down draft here, which will be hard to get back into is 156. You see that 156? It's the first part of the day. Yeah, so what you could do, you could say, I'm going to put a stop in all day 156.40 or something. You see what I'm saying? And just leave it. Just leave it because it would end up happening. If something gets explosive on the way up, guess what, you're out and you made money. Now, this is early in the morning. Let's picture this takes another leg down. Then what I would do, you take a look at these bars, then you bring the stop all the way back down again. Do you know what I'm saying? All day long, that's what you do. And then at the end of the day, you definitely want to make that decision though. That's what you do at the end of the day. That's, you know, cut, you know, take your profit or not. But intraday, when you get a day like this, that's what you tend to do.  You know? Because sometimes you don't get a bounce and that's what you're looking for. Do you know what I'm saying? Okay, if you don't get a bounce, instead of just selling out. Now, what you do do is that you're up 16 just today and where I said to put that first stop, that's like six points higher. So, you know, you got to take that into consideration and just see where you're at. You know what I mean? But in your case, I would say just leave it because you're shot at 83. That's about as good as you can get. You know what I mean? Yeah, the other... Okay, I see what you're saying. You know one of the hardest things for me to do is hold through even a small fact, even when I'm in the money. And a lot of times I'll get out too quick. I'll get nervous. I want to take the bread. And then if I would have just held through the retracement a little bit, it takes that next leg down. And I'm like, man, sometimes the trade could be double the profit. And I've been listening to old traders like Jesse Livermore and that reminiscent of a stock operator. And these guys all talk about trying to stay in the trade for a big bread. And I'm really trying to learn how to do that better. So let's go back to that one. So the way that can help, maybe, okay, is that you turn around and say, okay, so when we bounced yesterday, right, what you're going to see is all these bounces yesterday, they were on light of volume. Now what I would have done on this one, I've been looking and see the bounce that it was in the morning at 11 o'clock. Okay, so this did 26,000 shares when it bounced at 11. Take those crosshairs and put it over and see what it's going into. And we were going at the 64,000 with 51. Now that's a close call, man. But you can see the real benchmark there was 116,000 at 173. And we only made it to 174. See that? That was the test. Yes, Paul, right there. And it couldn't handle it. That's kind of what I do all day long. You do the exact same thing on a continual basis and then on a daily you push them against them. And as soon as you see that expand on volume or if it holds price, then you got to basically say, okay, man, this thing wants higher price or if you're on the other side of it, this thing wants lower price. And like anything else, it's not 100%, but in a high volatile market like this, you're going to be surprised how well that whole deal goes because the bounces are incredible, too, man. These bounces can come out of nowhere and most times they do when we're just talking to Kevin Hinks. That's important to understand that when that volatility gets high volatility in itself, for some reason the marketplace means you're going down, but the bounces in between are pretty wild, man. You know, so. Yeah, it definitely can be. Well, right now I really appreciate the lesson very much, and I've learned so much from TFNN over the years. I use a lot of the techniques from several of the traders and kind of put it into my own system and still trying to get better every day, man. Well, you're going to get every... I'll tell you, right now, when you get a market like this you can learn a lot more because the moves are so fast. So it's... You know, and that's whether you even have a position on or not.  And the mindblower is, folks, and the counter-trend bounces. This is what you really want to watch for. The counter-trend bounces, you can't believe that it can bounce so far and then give it up again.  How does that do that? Well, that's how they move, man. That's just how they move, you know. So. Yeah, Etsy did something similar to that insured day. I mean, I took a short and broke the pre-market kind of consolidation and we had a big move down and then a huge spike up and then went all the way it's just kind of encapsulates what you were just saying with that SD chart this morning. Right, now, if we talk about the SD chart, right? Don't... This is going to... This is dangerous, I mean, if you're on the shot side because when you see a spike like that it's like, okay, that 64 bucks can get tested again particularly because you see we have a buyer 900,000 on the way up then we came back with only 360. That's like, okay, man that's what you don't want to see in your socks for sure. That's what you don't want to see because that's someone that's coming in there saying, hey, you know what, I think this is a good deal. You never want to see if you shot the equity, you never want to see an explosion of volume intraday because that means that someone heavier is coming in and, you know, it may go that way. Cookin', bro. Yeah, I got that first move down and I'm already out of that one, but thanks again for the lesson, guys. Have a great day. Paul, good to hear from you. Likewise. Bye-bye. So, we get Uber this afternoon too. Yeah. They start trading tomorrow, right? Yeah. We get a price tonight? We get a price tonight. We get a price tonight. I don't know what they're pitching. Well, we do have the numbers, but, you know, in both of them. I think it's going to go at the lower end, that's how I was saying it. I don't think so too. Stay right there, folks. Time to come right back. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the Tax Opportunity Zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Tax Act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits, so that you can be reliable. 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The Prospectus or Summary Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor Four Side Fund Services, LLC. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com then hit Watch Tiger TV.  I'm just like hey guys tomorrow's Thursday The markets gonna move. I'm gonna get in a call.  I got no support here coming into play And I'll go ahead and share my screen for the time being if that's cool All right, let's see here sure screen All right, so Right now we've had a really good series of like halfway back shorts and we've come into some profit targets So obviously, you know, we've been Really aggressive to the downside. I want to show you some some things here So initially coming out of the swing high. There was this halfway back short that broke you there was some participation at 2923 and then it broke above into the close on Monday only to hold in the overnight and then the following day 6475 on the first big wave down That's where the bid finally came in I think you know a lot of people all day long were looking for a bid to cover and then right before close We traded that from there that swing high to low and this is just a series of measured moves came down We got rejected at that 96. We're now in a completion phase down here below 46 And then what I would look for for the next opportunity if we're gonna pop to sell into is just now Wednesday's high to low And that's gonna bring us up to 2868 which is the beginning of the move down here early this morning as well as a prior low up yesterday So that's gonna be a level I'm paying attention to very closely Going into you know the rest of this week. I'm actually I'm heading to your state tomorrow actually today I'm flying down. I'm gonna be fishing in the keys So I will not be trading tomorrow, of course, you know book a vacation the market starts moving But as far as support levels that I got below that are pretty important to me 2816 to 2820 levels. So if we continue to just get slaughtered here I'm not looking for any support and this very well could trade today until we get down to the 2820 to 2816 Level for that and then gold just because I love talking about it with you guys because you guys love gold But and I love gold. So last week, I think we were talking about this larger time frame 50% or Tristan long That goes back to the swing low of September of last year to high we saw two separate days now on the 23rd and the 2nd of May very aggressive bids off of that and Right now if we can start clearing the 1291, which is the halfway back from the swing high of March 10th Okay, we will begin moving back up to the top of the range and you can see right now This halfway back along here has gotten a really good bid We sold off straight into it, you know buyer stepped in right in front of it And it looks like we're trying to work our way up. So that's that's what I got for some of the bigger levels here for the S&P and golds And yeah, let's let's get Chad. What do you guys what do you guys got going on? Yeah, no, I in that S&P man if we get to the down at the S&P That's gonna, you know get the down on 600 bucks today and it didn't it, you know We'll see how they're already down more than 400, right? Yeah, right. Oh, no, that's easy to do man You're talking about 1045 in the morning. That's yeah, that's not hard I mean there was sustained selling out here yesterday even though the markets, you know really weren't down There was it was heavy pressure all day long And of course that Intel Intel come out with that news and then it was like, okay, see later, man, you know Just the chip Sector in general just brought that Nasdaq down fast and furious, you know The other interesting level to watch here in the S&P the from the March contract lows and the future is 2846 which had some buyers this morning, but we got below that 2846 we'll see if we you know end up closing back above that level But that's also pretty important level for me because not only do we have that profit target completion But if you look at the lows of the March contract to the current high, that's right at 2846 too And we're right at 2846 so the battle is on right now, man The heat is He'll be on in Florida this week You're gonna have some beautiful weather. We got highs at 92 degrees in Tampa, man So that's better than highs of 60 over here. So I'm flying up to Boston's weekend So I'm gonna get a little bit of highs of 60. I can handle it. Let's get some rain I'm not looking forward to that. I can do a weekend of cool weather, but yeah. Yeah, forget the rain. Yes, but Yeah, I'm looking for going tarpon fishing you guys ever go tarpon fishing. Yes, you're gonna get you catch so many top and down there It's insane. It's that's yeah, I mean you got the migration coming through I mean I got I got on the water last year and it's like the thing is like 160 pounds, right, right? So cool down at the keys, right and you'll see it What happens folks is that right in between all the docks or the boats are right you're gonna see Everyone just take a fishing rod there's promo shore, right?   That's all the top and feeding in the morning Oh, yeah, I'm looking for I'll be I'll be up and out of the water by 6 30 for sure Oh, yeah, you're gonna be catching them in and they see the manatees the manatees will be out there, too The manatees they they're you especially at the keys what happens at the keys folks There's plenty of folks that There's fresh water and the manatees are always looking for fresh water So they're coming up to the docks and grabbing all the fresh water and then I don't I think the bay fish are just Well at the keys the bay, you know, you're right next to the Gulf. So everything is right there man. There's so many fish there It's insane Okay, brother. Well, listen, you have a great weekend safe weekend. Hope you catch lots of fish. Hope you catch it I think it I'm not sure it might be Yeah, it's not sailfish down there. My he my he's though.  Yeah, you just look for look at seaweed out there Why don't you get the seaweed? They'll be right underneath that seaweed get staying cool. I love the shade Smart fish, okay, man. You have a great one safe one. Appreciate it Jack You two guys have a great one. Thank you. Take care man and you can check out Jack folks every trading day major league trading calm and Market-wise out here. Yeah, this is this is laying right at the 2846 right now sure it's and Some of the higher volume equities that we have out here is that let's see we have Rook Roku up $14 Yeah, let's I want to see what their earnings were so let's see Posted first quarter revenue beat expectations and gave a strong outlook So while analysts were broadly positive on the print and guidance both city and loop capital markets expressed concern about the fierce competition But chairs are up huge man. Let's see if they get the full numbers down here now. They get all the analysts takes We'll get back into a second. Pretty amazing. Hey They're in a they're in the perfect sector that they can compete with because it is man You're competing with Amazon's got a streaming machine apples got Apple TV, you know But Roku's got the cheaper for the one it gets it done. Must be easy to turn the station Stay right there folks. Tell me I can right back I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers to share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money Let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets I'm Steve Rhodes author of mastering probability and for the last 12 months Timer digest has been tracking my newsletter signals Which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12 6 and 3 months timer digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well The fact is markets can be timed and I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best And what I do sign up for mastering probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the home page of tfn.com And get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide Great market calls to sign up today It's amazing to think that Tom O'Brien started his weekly gold report 17 years ago with the first issue published April 7th 2002 when gold was trading at under $300 per ounce gold peaked at more than $1,900 in 2011 and after spending many years consolidating at lower prices gold may be poised for its next big run Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU HUI GDX the dollar bonds South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations as of April 1st of this year the gold report currently has eight active positions with an average unrealized profit of almost 8% for each open trade new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee So you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your gold report Subscription today visit the front page of tfnn.com. Don't let gold's next big run pass you by sign up today Since 1984 Basel Chapman has been using the Chapman wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion Well originally hand-drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s Basel noticed that prices under most circumstances Virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply later Basel found the computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy and calling price turns As well as market trend calls thus was born the Chapman wave sequence Using the Chapman wave methodology along with other indicators Basel Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion Each market day with his opening call newsletter right now You can get a two-week free trial to the opening call Basel's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of tfnn.com Cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing get your two-week free trial to Basel's newsletter the opening call today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com So yeah, we had some of these Roku numbers up here right so I mean nothing too staggering There's got to be numbers even deeper than in here because in terms of they they just reported what first quarter I believe right but they're seeing second quarter net revenue to 20 to 225 the estimate was 218 They had here fiscal year adjusted EBITDA 10 to 20 million the estimate was about two And they had a range anywhere from five five million lost a 14 gain. Yeah, they're still losing money That's a net revenue for the fiscal year 1.03 billion and 1.05 the estimate was 1.02 the range went up to 1.05 So yeah, you could claim towards the higher-end the first quarter net revenue They came in above though for sure. They were supposed to make 180 revenue 1a9. They came in 206 Right, and they're probably looking at that, you know 29 million customer accounts. Yes, they don't have the estimate So those things like I was just back it up with the revenue per user to right above it That's you know, you add this plus multiply this times that there's your money. That's that's what I'm sure you're right That that's that's gonna be the recipe for growth Yeah, because look at they get sugar losses going out to 2020 Yeah, yeah, all the way fourth quarter. Yeah, fourth quarter of 2020 they might have a Profit, we'll see let's check back in on natural gas. Where are we on the natural gas? I doubt we're getting a oh I was gonna say a doubt but nothing too staggering. It looks like a move, but realistically We were trading at 258 five coming into that number trading seven tenths of a penny below where we're at Even when you had a bearish head start, right? The the contracts we were looking at had exposure from 260 Even then you barely would be able to break even with getting a little negative action So not too much of a move natural gas still relatively low price Oh, yeah, that natural gas stay right there folks We've got fast market coming up next and we got our man, Mr. Battle's a chap and Steve Rhodes Dave white be back this afternoon You can expect this volatility continue. Thanks. Thanks, man


Welcome everyone to the outcome-based product planning by Zeph. Without further delay, I'm passing over to Jeff. Excellent, thank you Trisha. Hey folks, good morning, good afternoon, good evening, wherever you are in the world. It's a pleasure to be here. Really nice to be part of Agilindia. Finally, as Naresh says in the chat, it's nice to be here. And nice to see some familiar names attending as well. So, Sava, I can't see your faces, but it is nice to see your names in the chat. I'm going to talk about outcome-based product planning. I'll share my slides here in just a second. We're going to talk about why it's important and how to do it and why it's something that actually drives the agility of an organization. So if we focus on agility rather than Agil, per se. So being Agil rather than doing Agil, one of the ways that we can get there is by planning our work towards outcomes. So let's talk about that. I'm going to share my screen. As was mentioned, if you have any questions or concerns, any comments, I'm sorry, put them in the chat. Any questions, you can put them in the Q&A module and I'll answer them as many as I can after the fact. So let's talk about outcome-based product planning. As always, we start with this question, which is always an interesting question. What do people love about the products that they love? Think about the products that always get high praise for success and a fantastic experience. Amazon, Netflix, Apple, whatever your favorite product is. If you were to ask a relative or a friend what they love about those products, I guarantee you that none of them would say, I love my iPhone because it was delivered on time. I like Amazon Prime because it was delivered on budget. That's not the reason. It's not how our customers measure success. It's not how our users measure success. Our users measure success in terms of whether or not their products solve a problem for them or if their products meet a need for them. People love their mobile phones because they make them happy. They keep them connected. They bring them closer, allow them to operate their business from wherever they are, among other many other things. This is the way consumers define success. If this is the way that they define success, this is the way that we should be defining the success of our products and services as well. Did we meet a need? Did we solve our problem? Instead of we delivered it on time and we delivered it on budget because our customers don't actually care about that. Did you actually solve a real need for me? If we're going to measure success in a different way, then we have to change actually how we plan and communicate our work. Now, the traditional way of planning and communicating our work has been in a linear fashion, in a roadmap or in a very... We're going to do this, then we're going to do this, and this, and that. There's a time and a place where linear product planning actually makes sense. When the thing that we're making is finite, we know exactly what it's going to look like when it's done. We know exactly what components need to go into it. We know how much work it's going to take to build it, and we have a very, very good sense of what people will do with it once we give it to them. In those situations where there is low risk and high certainty, linear product planning makes sense. Look, there was a time with software where it actually also made sense, and that was when software came in a box. If you think back, if you remember back, if you were alive back when software came in a box, you'll remember that there was... The software ended at some point. I worked at a company called America Online back in the 90s, and we would publish our software on CDs, and we would have to print 15 million of those CDs at a time, and so there was a clear end to the software, and there was a clear sense of what the software had to do when we reached that endpoint, and then we made a series of assumptions about what our customers would do with it, but at the very least, there was a linear plan there because there was a deadline, absolute deadline that we had to hit because we were physically producing media with the software on it, and so to communicate that, we use this metaphor, the roadmap, because the roadmap makes sense in a low risk, high certainty world. It's easier to communicate our plans in a linear fashion, and the map is a great metaphor for this kind of planning. We started point A, we've got a destination in point B, there's a distance between those, there's maybe some steps along the way, and we estimate how long it's going to take us to get from point A to point B. People can understand this, and they can communicate this, and this again makes sense in a world with static products, in a world where there's an absolute deadline and we can't move forward, right? But the reality of the software that we build today is that it doesn't conform to those qualities, right? Our world today is continuous, everything is continuous, right? The software that we build doesn't come in a box, it updates regularly, our apps update continuously, websites update continuously, systems, we send system updates all the time, and our businesses are being driven by software on top of that, and this idea that we can build a plan that says we're point A and we're going to point B, and these are the steps in between, starts to become very difficult to maintain in a world where everything is updating continuously and changing all the time, and frankly the pace of that is getting amazingly faster and faster and faster. I'll tell you that in 2015, when Josh Sidon and I started out to write our second book, Sense and Respond, we did some research and at that time Amazon was publishing code to production every 11.6 seconds, so five times a minute, Amazon was updating the system. Today it's every second, right? Amazon releases code to production somewhere in their systems every second, 60 times a minute, and in that world, right, of 60 times a minute, it's impossible to celebrate every software release, right? The deployment of software becomes a non-event. This idea that we can measure success simply by the fact that we've shipped something becomes moot when you can literally ship something every second. Now look, there at the extreme end of things, but it's worth noting that this is possible, right? And the idea that we can plan for this continuous deployment of updates and features becomes much more difficult to maintain if you're planning in a linear fashion. And that's just the technology side of things, right? It actually becomes increasingly more challenging when you bake in the humans, right? So there's the tech side of things. We can now deploy things very, very quickly. We can get ideas into the hands of our users very quickly, but we've got the human side of things and human behavior is complex and it's unpredictable. And so we don't have a guarantee of what our customers and our users are actually going to do with the software that we provide for them, right? We assume that they will do certain things. We hope that they will do certain things, but humans do strange things and we don't know exactly what they're going to do. And then of course, the other thing that happens is that their behavior emerges through the use of our products. So not only do they rarely do what we expect them to do, but ultimately they find ways to do things with our products that we never imagined, right? So a product that was designed just to connect people around the world like Facebook is now being used as a tool to sway elections and to do lots of other nasty things in the world. And these things just sort of emerge. We don't know what people are going to do. There's so much uncertainty. There's so much continuous change in the world that just because we plan something at one point doesn't mean it's still going to make sense when we get to that point in the plan, right? Because by the time we get there, things may have changed in the world. Things may have changed in the behavior of our customers. There might be some, you know, something has changed with the product that we're working on with the competition. So just because we made a plan initially, by the time we actually get to executing some of those steps, doesn't mean they actually make sense to build, right? And so if we're looking to increase the agility of our organization, we need to start to let go of these linear roadmaps because they're not agile. They're rigid, right? It's a strong word to say they are alive, but they are. We set expectations about a date in the future, what features we're going to deploy, the ROI that we're going to see from the roadmaps, and we're on the hook for it, right? But what if something new emerges, right? A competitive threat, a change in human behavior, something along those lines, it becomes really difficult to do. Let me, I mean, just to give you an example of this. In 2008, in October of 2008, I got a new job. I got a new job in New York City in a company called The Ladders. The Ladders at the time was a job search engine for people who were making more than $100,000 a year. So it's like an executive job search engine. And it's a two-sided marketplace. And the way that that website, that business stays healthy is we maintain a balanced ecosystem of jobs to job seekers. And we have that. Now, I got my job as the director of user experience in October of 2008. I don't know if you remember October of 2008, but that was a very, very bad month for the economy in the United States. Three weeks after I started my job, Lehman Brothers, the brokerage firm, melted down.  We went from a balanced ecosystem of jobs and job seekers to lots of job seekers, no jobs. We had a roadmap. We had a plan, features for the next nine months that we were going to build. What do we do? Do we follow the plan? Do we adjust course? We committed to those features, those dates, that ROI. How do we move that forward? And with those rigid product planning ideas, the question becomes, how can we respond effectively? And the answer is we can't. We can't be agile. We can't inspect and adapt. We can't sense and respond, build, measure, learn. If we're using these linear, rigid planning techniques, the world is going to throw obstacles at us, challenges, surprises. And it's going to break our plans. And it's going to challenge the organizational inertia behind the hours of work and negotiation that it took to get to this, right? So much time, so much effort is made to get to this approved roadmap. And then the world throws all these things at us. And it's going to be difficult for us to react if we continue to commit to this. So we're going to move away from rigid product planning. And we're going to redefine the way that we plan our work and communicate our work away from features, away from output and towards outcomes. That's going to be our goal, right? So let's talk about what an outcome based product plan looks like. The first thing we have to do is we actually have to change the questions that we're asking. If we're going to build a new way of product planning, excuse me, and a new way of communicating our work, we have to change the questions that we're asking to start the plan. The old question, and you know this question well, right? What will we build? We always ask this question, what are we going to make? What are we working on? What's the feature that we're going to ship this sprint? That's the old question. If we're going to shift to outcome based product planning, we need a new conversation. The new conversation is, the new question is, what will people be doing differently if we succeed? So it's not enough to say, hey, we're going to build this, right? The real question is, if we build the right feature and we design it well, we implement it successfully and people use it and it meets a need and it solves a problem, what will people be doing differently, right? Now the fundamental difference here is that what will we build is a question about output. It's about features, right? It's about planning features and dates and deadlines. What will people be doing differently is a conversation around outcomes. Outcomes are measurable changes in human behavior. And in a world where you can deploy software every second, right? The real measure of success is not did you ship the feature, it's did you impact the behavior of your users in a positive way? And how do you know, right? What are they doing differently now that we've built a system for them to use or a service or our product? So if we're going to start to shift to managing the outcomes, we have to change the question that we're asking. We're going to stop asking what are we building, focus on what will people be doing differently if we succeed? The next thing is we have to change how we view our work. Now we are often in a position, particularly if you work in a large successful company, where we take an inside out approach to product development, right? We build, we're big, we're successful, we know what customers want, we're going to push our ideas out into the market and people are going to love it and we're going to assume that they're going to love it and we're going to ship it and it's going to be fantastic. But the reality is that we are not geniuses delivering magic products to people who don't know they need them, right? The reality is if we're going to build an outcome based way of working, we have to become empathetic problem solvers for our users and then figure out to discover what solutions will make them successful. We have to take an outside in perspective, right? Head out of the building, understand our customers, learn what it is they're trying to achieve, what's getting in their way, what they're doing today, how well that's working for them, where there might be an opportunity for improvement and then develop solutions for them that will make them more successful. So instead of pushing these ideas out to them, we go out to them to learn and then bring that learning inside to change our perspective on the work that we're doing, right? The third question, the third step in changing our product planning to outcomes is to change the destination, right? Our goal isn't to target features, but our goal is to target specific changes in human behavior. Now a roadmap is a marketing tool with your plans for the coming quarter or year. I really like this definition because it doesn't say that you need to market a set of features. You can market a set of benefits or a set of outcomes. And when we start to think about it that way, this is what a high level outcome-based product plan could look like. Let's talk through this and let's work it through. So this is ultimately at a high level what can replace your feature-based roadmap, right? So we start at the top. We start with a longer-term strategic theme or an objective, right? What's the objective that we're trying to achieve for the next quarter or two quarters, maybe three quarters at most, right? And we can have multiple objectives with different teams assigned to each one. Then on a roughly quarterly basis, we set goals based on outcomes, based on key results. Key results in your OKRs are outcomes. They're measurable changes in human behavior. What are the behavior changes that we want to achieve this quarter? Maybe it's an acquisition goal, maybe it's a usage metric, maybe it's a retention metric, right? We're looking for those behaviors that are important to us this quarter, next quarter, et cetera. But we're going to commit to those as the goals for each quarter. We then have a conversation with our teams, with our colleagues to determine what we might actually build, right? But we couch these ideas in terms, in as hypotheses. Hypothesis reflect the fact that these are our best guesses about what we might build to hit these quarterly key results or these quarterly outcome goals. The nice thing about hypothesis statements is that they reflect the uncertainty of digital product development, right? They don't say we are building this. It says we believe we should build this, and if we do a great job, we expect to see this behavior change, which is the key result goal. Now, the interesting thing is about visibility, to think about visibility. In the short term, you might have decent visibility about what ideas you think you should work on, what ideas you think will work, what will actually deliver the key results and the outcomes that we're trying to achieve, and ultimately the strategic goal. So for the immediate first quarter, you've got a bunch of ideas. The second one, a few more ideas. The further out in time you look, the less accurately, you can predict what you're going to be working on. Remember, continuous change, pandemics, socio-political crises, changes in consumer consumption patterns, emergent behavior from the systems are all the things we talked about just a few minutes ago, and that's not even everything, right? All those things are going to impact what you might be working on in the future. And so to confidently say, well, here are 10 things we're going to work on three quarters from now, or four quarters from now is massively risky.  And so as we look further into the future, we have fewer ideas about what we might be doing, right? And that's perfectly okay, because what we want to then do is check in periodically, right? Talk about what we shipped, what we learned, how we're trending towards our key results goals, towards our outcome-based goals, and then decide, okay, great, now what are we going to do in the next quarter, right? And so what we're doing is just in time planning on a quarterly basis, based on the evidence that we collected in the last quarter, right? Now, one way to consider the metaphor I like to use for this is imagine like this type of planning is like, it's like walking through a fog, right? If you've ever walked through a fog, you know, that you can see four or five steps ahead of you. But you can't see 10 steps or 20 steps ahead of you. So you're not going to go running full steam and just go, you know, in one direction and hope everything works out really well, right? Because you could hit a brick wall, you could fall off a cliff, right? There's a variety of reasons why you're not going to go running headfirst into a fog. But when you walk into a fog, if you take four or five small steps, let's call that a small batch, right? All of a sudden, you now reveal the next four or five steps, right? You can see into the fog four or five steps further, right? And if there's no obstacle in your way, terrific, we're going to keep moving forward in that direction. But if we start to discover that there are obstacles in our way ahead of us, once we've taken that small batch into the steps into the fog, right, we have to pivot, we have to change course. And that's what being agile is all about. It's about changing course based on evidence. And so when we start to plan with outcomes, right, the measure of success, again, isn't, right, did you build all the things on the roadmap, right? It's, are we hitting the behavior change goals that we set for ourselves? And if not, what do we need to change in our planning process in order to do that? And if we work in small batches, in this case, quarters, right, but whatever, whatever small batch makes sense for you, we collect evidence that then informs with greater certainty, right, the planning for the next quarter and the quarter after that. But three, four quarters in the future, still is generally a mystery to all of us, right? So let's talk about how to build this, right? Because I just showed it to you. Let's talk about how to build this kind of roadmap together. Okay, the first thing that we're going to do is we're going to start with a clear business problem. Okay, the question is what is the thing that's strategically important for us in the next six months, right? What are we trying to solve for? So here's an example of that hypothetical example, right, where we built, this is from an online learning service for lawyers, right? So we built our online learning service to help lawyers maintain their credentials, keep their skill sets current. And we've observed that customers sign up for an account, take one of our courses and then don't come back, right? This decreases the benefit of the product. It's expensive for us because that we have to continuously acquire new customers rather than selling additional courses to existing ones. That's the business problem that is important to us in the next three to six months. Okay, so we start with a clear business problem, right? What are you, what are you going to take on strategically in the next quarter or two? We then take that business problem and we turn it into a positive goal. If we solve the problem, what does that look like, right? So if I solve that problem where lawyers sign up for my service, take one course and then never come back and take another course, well, then I have built an effective and engaging continuing education learning product for the entirety of a lawyer's career to ensure their skills are current. That's my goal, right? I want to solve the problem. That's what it looks like if I solve the problem, right? What we've done here is we've written our first objective, right? The thing that goes at the top of the roadmap. This is our strategic goal for the next three to six months. We want to build an effective and engaging continuing education learning product for the entirety of a lawyer's career, which is great. Then we come back to our key question, right? If we solve the problem, if I achieve that objective, right? What will people be doing differently? Well, here's some things that would tell me that if I solve that objective, what people could potentially be doing differently, right? Each user will take at least three courses each year. 25% of new customers will come from word of mouth referrals and each law firm that signs up registers at least 50% of its staff. Now, what I've done here is I've defined my success criteria in terms of outcomes or in terms of key results, right? Every single one of these things on the screen is a measure of human behavior. It is an outcome. I've determined that if I see these behaviors, right, I will have achieved my objective. It means that I have chosen the right features. I've chosen the right business model, pricing model, value proposition, code, copy design to achieve these behavior changes, right? And the measure of success is not what I actually shipped. It's did I actually get these things to happen? And so what we've actually done here as we've written an OKR statement, right? Our objective is to build this effective online learning tool and our key results are at least these three behavior changes that can serve as the destination for our product planning efforts, right? As the quarterly key result goals, right? And so these things, they end up in that roadmap, right? The objective is at the top. The key results end up on a quarterly basis and that becomes what we're actually targeting. Now, the next step in the process is for us to work together as a team and to brainstorm solution hypotheses that may achieve those objectives and those key results and those outcomes, right? Because now we've got our strategic goal and now we've got our destination. We've got the behavior changes that we're targeting. Now we can talk about what might we build. And as I mentioned before, we want to talk about our work in terms of solution hypotheses because there is doubt, right? About whether or not these ideas are actually going to deliver the behavior change that we're looking for. Remember, all that uncertainty, all that continuous change that we talked about at the beginning, all those things threaten the success of your idea. So we write our feature ideas in terms of hypotheses because it reflects that uncertainty in the work, right? As much as we hate to say it, we all know it, right? Software development is difficult work. It's complex and it's unpredictable. And so let's reflect that in how we describe the work that we're going to do. This is the template that we use to write hypotheses. It starts with the words we believe, right? Because we don't know, right? We believe we will increase the number of classes taken by each customer by 300%, right? That's my behavior change, my outcome. If mid-career lawyers, that's my target audience, right? Feel like they're progressing ahead of average rates in their career. That's why they would care about this with a leaderboard of internal and external usage statistics, right? So I'm going to gamify the learning platform. That's my feature idea, right? Is it going to work? I don't know. Is this a compelling story? Yeah, I think it is. Is it a true story? I don't know yet, right? I believe it is. But we're going to have to figure out what their gamification is going to drive these mid-career lawyers to take at least three classes every time they come to the platform, right? And the hypotheses that we write become these quarterly activities as we showed before, right? I'm going to have a lot of those in the short term, fewer as we look further out over time. Once we've got the roadmap planned, we then need to start to assess the risks in our hypotheses, right? Because we're not sure. We're not confident. And so as we think about our hypotheses, we have to determine what's risky about them and then design experiments to test those ideas, right? What can we do to learn whether or not these are the right things to build? And as we identify these, the hypotheses that we want to work on, we have to ask two key questions, right? The first question is, what's the most important thing we need to learn first about this hypothesis, right? What's the biggest risk about it? And then once we've identified the biggest risk, what's the least amount of work we need to do to learn that, to understand whether that's a real risk or not and how we might mitigate it? And the answer to that second question is your experiment. Sometimes those are called MVPs, right? I just want to be clear that the goal here is to drive experimentation and learning. The example on your screen is from Rotterdam in the Netherlands, right? They're always trying to figure out where to put another bicycle rack for people to lock their bicycles. Now, what they could do is they could just build the bike rack, pour concrete, install these metal bike racks and hope that people use them, right? They ship the feature, which is what we do a lot at work every day, right? Instead, they run these experiments. They take this mobile bike rack, it's on wheels. They put it in a destination somewhere in the city where they think it will be helpful. They monitor the usage of this experiment, right? Do people lock their bikes here? How often, right? How many people do it? How many bikes are locked to it? And if the usage, the behavior change, the outcome, is sufficient enough, then they invest in making this permanent, right? But if it isn't, right? If people don't use it, if people don't lock their bikes here, they put them somewhere else, right? They will move this to another location in the city, right? They will pivot on this idea.  And it's a perfect metaphor for the work that you're doing. Because again, the measure of success for the city of Rotterdam is not how many bike racks they've installed, right? It's how many people are using the bike racks. That's the goal, right? So they have to figure out the right configuration, the right location, and the same thing holds true for you. The measure for your success is not how many features did we ship, it's did we make our customers more successful, right? Are they doing things that benefit them and then ultimately us? Now, the interesting thing is that, look, this is just in time planning process. And so we need to put in check-ins that allow us to reflect, to decide, to plan further. I use quarterly as the delineation in time here, simply because a quarter is less than a year. And it works well for a lot of companies. Now, obviously, if a quarter doesn't make sense in your business, then use a timeframe that makes sense for you. But just whatever it is, make sure that it's shorter than what you're using today. And then we use those quarterly check-ins with our stakeholders to ask these questions, right? How are we trending towards those key results, those outcomes? Are we making progress towards them? What are we learning along the way? What's working? What's not working? What are experiments teaching us? The hypotheses that we've got planned for this quarter, are they proving true? Are they proving false? Which of those hypotheses should we keep funding? That's a big question. Which one should we stop funding because they're not working out? Is there a pivot that we should make? So maintain your strategy, but change the tactics. Are there hypotheses? They're just dead. They're not going to work. We're going to kill them and move away from them. Did we learn something new? And we should add that to our backlog now for the next quarter or this quarter or whatever it is. We want to have these conversations. But remember, these quarterly check-ins, they need to be forward-looking conversations. This is not a review or an assessment of what the team did in the last quarter. Ideally, all of that is already known. It's a conversation that says, what are we going to do in the next quarter? What have you learned along the way? And what are we doing moving forward? Very, very important to have these check-ins on a regular basis. I want to be super clear about this. I touched on it briefly with that example of the bike rack in Rotterdam in the Netherlands. But if you're going to plan your work this way and communicate this way, it explicitly requires your teams to do product discovery, to do research, to do experimentation. Because what you're committing to is behavior change, not features. And so it's up to you and your team to figure out the best combination of code and copy and design and business model and value proposition, et cetera, that's going to drive that behavior change. And you're going to be wrong some of the time. And so we need to learn how to do product discovery, how to do experimentation. We need to make the time for it in our backlogs. We need to make it a transparent activity and then build that into our planning, into our work, because inevitably it's going to affect the work in our backlogs. Now, this is going to face some obstacles inside your organizations. There's no doubt about it. Your colleagues are going to have a tough time with this. And certainly your stakeholders and your managers are going to have a tough time with this as well. And so the last thing I want to talk about is some of those challenges and what you can do to mitigate some of them. One of the interesting things is that there will be pushback and anxiety because there's a whole layer of middle managers who manage the teams that we work on that are used to telling us what to do. Go build this, make it blue, be done by Friday. That's my job. My job is to tell my team what to do. There's a lot of folks in those positions who believe that that is their job. When we manage the outcomes, the features emerge from the discovery work and the delivery work that we do on a quarterly basis. And so what happens is that this layer of middle management gets really anxious because what we've done is we've taken away a key management task from these middle managers. We've taken away the ability to tell people what to do. And they get scared. They get scared because if I don't tell people what to do, then what's my job? There's a lot of folks who believe that that's the defining quality of their management position is to tell people what to do. So for this to succeed, our middle managers need to realize that their job is changing as well. It's not telling people what to do. It's to help the teams define and clarify the strategy. What's the objective that we're working on to make sure everybody's clear and understand it? It's management's job to set guardrails and scope. We are focusing on the mobile channel. So we're going to focus on mobile only, not desktop mobile. We're going to set those guardrails and the scope to keep the team focused. If the evidence that comes back from the experimentation and the learning is unclear and it often is, management can help make key decisions. We're going to go in this direction instead of that direction. Management's job is to remove obstacles to allow this kind of work to take place. The discovery, the research, the pivoting, the learning, the agility, they need to figure out how to help the teams be successful to remove those obstacles and ultimately to facilitate their success to provide them with the tools and the access and the budgets that they need to do the work that they need to do. That is the job of middle management, certainly, and stakeholders on a team that is managing to outcomes rather than just telling the team what to build or what to do. Now, there's a flip side to this conversation, because those middle managers, well, they have bosses as well. And those bosses are going to ask them, well, what's your team doing? What are they up to? What are they working on? And it's terrifying for those middle managers to not have that answer, particularly if there's a lot of flux in the backlog. We're still doing a lot of learning. If my boss comes to me and says, hey, Jeff, what's your team working on? I don't know. It's not a good answer. We've got to provide a real answer. And so for this to be successful, we can't just make a demand on our managers to work differently. We, as the people on the teams, need to step up and work differently to make our bosses successful so they leave us alone and they can communicate clearly with their bosses. Our job as members of teams who want to manage to outcomes, want to work towards outcomes, is to build radical transparency into the way that we work. How do we make sure that everybody knows what we're working on, what we're trying, what we've experimented, what we've learned, what we've killed, what we've pivoted, what we've changed? How do we provide access to that on an ongoing basis? How do we make sure that that is visible and transparent to everyone? How do we over communicate? It's a good question. We want to over communicate to our leaders, to our managers, so that they have a clear sense at all times about what's happening on the team. I used to do this with a weekly email. You could do it with a check-in, you could do it with an email, and you can do it with a Slack channel, with a Wiki page, whatever. There's a million ways to do this, but the idea is that we are constantly communicating what we're working on, what we're learning, what decisions we're making, what's being shipped, how we're tracking towards our outcomes, etc. Every decision that we make as a team needs to be backed up with data. If we're going to ask for the ability to do product discovery, to collect data, we need to use that data to support our decisions. If we're going to communicate to our bosses, hey, we're not working on this hypothesis anymore, and we've added the second one, it's because the data that we've collected tells us that this is a better way to go. Every time that we have a conversation with our bosses, we want to reinforce that our key results, that our outcomes, are the goal. They'll say, well, I want you to build this. Okay, boss, that's terrific. How does this thing that you saw the competitors have, how does that help us achieve the outcomes that we're targeting? How do you think? Let's talk about that because the key goal is not to ship the feature, it's to change the behavior. And then, of course, be very, very consistent with your check-ins. Check-in with your leadership after every short cycle. And again, this is all about transparency and overcommunications. If you reduce that anxiety and that middle management layer, the odds of this succeeding increase exponentially because they're part of the process, they understand everything. The other pushback, you'll get regularly from sales. Sales will always say, look, how can I give you anything? If the features are in flux, what am I selling? How do I know what to sell? If you can't commit to a feature by a date for me, I can't do my job. Does that sound familiar from sales? And so we have to work with our sales team. Again, we want to be transparent with them. We want them to know what's happening, why it's happening. But the goal with sales is to convince them that they need to sell the benefit, not the feature. So it's not 48 megapixel camera, it's amazingly realistic video to see the new baby from across the country or across the world. Right? We want to speak in outcomes, help sales speak in outcomes. We're going to help you increase retention by 50%. We're going to make sure that your data integrity levels go up by 90%. Right? We're going to reduce the number of errors in your mortgage applications by 57%. Right? This is going to help you achieve this financial result because those outcomes inevitably translate into financial benefit for the buyers of our products and services. And so it's a shift for sales to move away from a series of features, right? To speaking to outcomes and the financial benefits of those outcomes. And so to do that, we have to include them in the conversation as well. Look, this way of working, right? Outcome-based product planning is the source of agility, right? It ensures that we're paying attention to how well our work is meeting the needs of our customers. Right? If we're not changing their behavior in a positive way, we have objective measures for that, and we can adjust our work to hopefully help them be more successful. The short cycles, the sprints that we use that come out of Agile, right, allow us to minimize investments and feature ideas that don't help us achieve our outcomes. Right? And in doing so, right, we're forcing our teams to go and figure out whether or not we're actually working on something that is worth investing in. And if it isn't, we can pivot and we can move quickly. And making course corrections based on evidence is agility, right? It is evidence-based decision-making rather than opinion or job title or salary-based decision-making, right? And most importantly, outcome-based product planning helps us stop lying to ourselves and our bosses and our clients and really focus on the features and the solutions that are going to make everybody ultimately much more successful. And so with that, I want to say thank you for listening. I hope you found that valuable. I hope you learned something. And I'm very much looking forward to your questions for the next few minutes as well. Thank you, Jeff. So we have so many questions today. So the first question is, are the quarterly goals or commitment or aspiration, particularly when there are many unknowns or moving paths to reach our objectives? No, no, it's a commitment. But it's a commitment that, you know, we want to set them as a stretch goal, right? So let's use retention as an example. Let's say we want to increase retention by 50%, right? If the team works for a quarter and comes back and says, hey, boss, we increase retention by 65%, right? What do you want to do next? That's great, right? But we kind of underestimated what our target should be. And so over time, you just kind of start to figure out sort of where that stretch goal is, right? If you're crushing your key results every single quarter, you're not trying hard enough, right? But they are your commitments. Your commitment is to get as close to that. You know, the expectation usually with key results is that you hit 75% to 80% of it, right? And so that's roughly the goal. You're committing to achieving 75% to 80% of the goal. But yeah, that's, you know, again, if you're crushing it every quarter, then we're not trying hard enough. But it is a commitment. It's not totally aspirational. Thank you, Chef. I think we have completed the time.


the start of a new year, the start of a new decade. It's a very, very exciting time in my mind and in my heart. And over the course of the last few years with this channel, I have been very vocal with you guys about sort of the idea of resolutions, the idea of setting goals for yourself, and none of that has really changed. I'm not one of those people that makes a ton of resolutions. I'm someone who looks at it like an evolution. So it's not like by the end of the year, I will have done this exact thing. Instead, it's like, I'm going to work on this and I'm going to be better at that. And that definitely applies to my sewing.  I'm not one of those people who grew up with it. No one in my family ever sewed. I really just found it as an adult in my late 20s and just became obsessed and so learned really quickly. But with that comes a lot of things that as I am more confident in my sewing, there are things about my sewing that I wish I were better at, things that I wish I did differently, things just, you know, just an evolution, an evolution of becoming a beginner sewist, becoming very obsessed, trying to learn as much as you possibly can, making as many mistakes as you can. And now that all that's kind of settled down, I feel like I can be a lot more diligent and vigorous about my sewing evolution. I don't ever want to just stay stagnant. I don't ever want to just say, well, you know, I can make just about anything I want to wear. So, you know, that's it. I really, really want to just keep learning and keep getting better. So I actually went back on my laptop and see here and rewatched my last resolution video, which as it turns out was from 2018. It wasn't, I didn't make any resolutions in 2019. The only reason I can think of is because I had just moved and things were very chaotic and so it must have just slipped my mind. But it's interesting because the resolutions from 2017 and 2018 are kind of still things that I am working on. One of them was to finish everything, uh, what would my future self feel if I take this shortcut? So if I skip this interfacing, for example, and I'm going to wear this garment in the future and it's kind of falling apart and not holding up well, my future self is going to be really disappointed that I took this shortcut now. So don't take this shortcut, see it all the way through, finish it perfectly, so on and so forth. And I am a lot better at that, a lot, a lot better. I think that my holiday dress from this past December, like a few weeks ago is the prime example of that really, really seeing itself to the like nearly, I don't want to say I'm perfect at it, but we're getting very, very close to nirvana with that.  So I'm almost there with that. Another one of the resolutions, bless my heart, is I really wanted to perfect a pants pattern. No, we're not there.  I can do that really, really well. I can, as you saw in my jeans video, I can take something that's ready to wear and get it to fit me. So I have better fitting pants now than I ever had in my whole life, but I am not necessarily making pants all the time, or certainly don't have one pattern that is like my go to pants pattern. With that said, though, I'm not really a pants wearer. I have a few and that gets me through what I need. And if all of them happen to be loose fitting, cool lot style pants, what's wrong with that? That's fine. I don't have to have like cigarette pants. I don't have to have, you know, a pair of jeans that I've made myself, especially if I can figure out a way to get ready to wear ones, get them at Goodwill.  Then you know what? I'm kind of okay. And that's part of an evolution too is just settling in and realizing what your strengths are, what they aren't, finding a good compromise for the things that you aren't going to be exceptional at, and doing the best you can. Maybe that's what I mean about my, you know, sewing journey and kind of where I am now that I'm a little bit more confident. I don't have to be able to make absolutely everything. And I am perfectly, perfectly okay with that. What's hysterical is two of them from two years ago was lessen my stash and no more works in progress. And I don't know, maybe I am just that person that's going to always have a work in progress pile. I am always that person that is going to continue adding to her stash, even though she's got plenty of fabrics to choose from. Maybe that's just like, you know how there are some people who make their bed every day, and there are some people who don't. And there are some people who always have the kitchen sink empty without any dishes. And then there are the people who let it all pile up and then deal with it later. Maybe that's just how it's going to be. I don't know. But what I do know for sure that speaks to kind of both of these things is that, and I started to subconsciously do this toward the end of the year, is that I don't feel like I need to make all of the things. I, you know, when a new pattern release comes out, I used to buy like a lot of those patterns, more than 10. I have an insane pattern stash, which I started to call a little bit, which is nice. And then I would just feel like, oh my god, I've got to sew all of this stuff. I've got to, you know, be not be one of the first people to finish that garment. But certainly, you know, if something is like I like a pattern a lot, I want to add it to my wardrobe as quickly as possible. And I think what I'm realizing now is that, A, that's not necessary, B, a lot of the patterns that you are drawn to with every release, you have something similar if you've been buying patterns as vigorously as I have been buying patterns. So a lot of times I'll be like, oh, that's really cute. But then I'll be like, but wait, that's a lot like that other pattern that I have that I haven't sewn yet. So I'm kind of feeling a little bit of a relaxed sort of attitude toward that. And not like I have to have the latest and the greatest thing, you know, personally, this comes into my life. And I've talked about this personally with among my friends and my boyfriend and all of that is the idea of the bigger, better deal, right? Like you make plans, let's just use that as an example, you make plans with someone to do like to go work out. And then that morning of your workout that you have scheduled with a friend, someone text messages you and like, hey, we're going to brunch. And that's like the bigger, better deal. And you cancel your workout with your friend, leave them hanging to go do the more fun, exciting thing. Like that's not right. And for a long time, I have really tried very hard to not go for the bigger, better deal. It's not always just with plans, with all kinds of things. And I feel like this is part of that. I feel like the bigger, better deal with the sewing patterns is the new, fresh, hot, you know, cool one that just came out when in your stash, you have something that is just as comfortable and would be just as beautiful. So that's where I'm at with, you know, sewing this patterns, the pattern stashes that I have fabric stash wise. I think the biggest problem that I had was that I was going to New York City and buying everything that they had to offer. If I liked it, I was buying it. The first three years I came home with, I mean, dozens of fabrics. And so that's why you see such a large stash behind me. This past year, I did go to New York City. I went for one day and I didn't buy any fabric at all. And I was perfectly fine with that. I went into the shops, I looked around, I was looking for something very specific, which also helped. And so I haven't really added to my stash at all. And you'll see in my plans video coming up, I plan on sewing from the stash all year long. So my style is I feel like an opportunity where I can really start to tackle some of the stash. Because those patterns are a little bit more basic, I feel like that's why I haven't reached for the fabrics I have now, because I'm going for like a fancy pattern and all the fancy fabrics that I love, love, love, love, love, love, I've already made. So what's left are kind of like the basics. And it's hard to be inspired from the basics. On top of that is the works in progress situation. And I feel like what happens with that is I am very, very excited to make something. So I cut it out. And then something else distracts me, squirrel, and I'm off to make the next thing. And what I really need to do is just say no, like just be hard on myself.  So it's the same kind of thing in your sewing room, you know what I mean? Like I can't, I just can't allow myself to just willy-nilly whenever I want. I have to be diligent about it. And the second part of the work in progress situation is I'll start to make something and realize it's not going to fit or it's not going to turn out the way that I like. And so I bail, but I don't fully bail. I just partially bail meaning fold up the fabric and tuck it away somewhere and tell myself that I'm going to get to it. And then I never do. So I just have to be really, really hard on myself in all of these situations with the stashes that I've got. And I think that that's just a matter of not necessarily like being more mature, but just being more knowledgeable and more real with myself, more honest with myself. So I guess in a way that's kind of how all of that is evolving. I should just admit when a project is a fail and just that's what it is and move on. And we have those and we learn from those and that's fine. And I should just tell myself you've already got that pattern in your stash. Tell myself this other fabric will be perfect for that pattern. You don't need, you know, the new hot fabric. So that's kind of where I've gotten with my sewing resolutions and my sewing evolutions over the past few years. I am still always working to be a better person, but also a better sewist and be someone that in this sewing journey, I am very proud of all of all the aspects of it, all the facets of my sewing. I don't want to be someone who hoards so don't. You know, I don't want to be someone who doesn't finish a project perfectly. So don't. I don't want to be someone who's hung up on trying to learn one type of garment and that's preventing them from sewing things that they really love. So don't. So that I guess is my message for you all this year as you're thinking about goals and plans is that it's a journey. It's an evolution. You're always reaching for Nirvana and Nirvana is one of those things that you'll never reach, but you're always working really, really hard to get there.   That's how you're going to learn, but don't be so hard on yourself if it doesn't work out.  If you failed, it's fine. And for those of you that have been sewing forever and ever and ever, sometimes I feel like we can be the hardest on ourselves almost because we know better. You know what I mean? So but don't.  At the same time, be honest with yourself, be true to yourself, to that own self, be true. And I think that the sewing journey will just carry us through to the next phase of whatever that looks like. So I am excited for this year. I'm excited to see where my journey is going to take me. I'm excited to see kind of what my thoughts are about this at the end of 2020. I'll be sure to do a video about it. We'll see. We'll see what happened. But let me know what you guys are going to be working on for your sewing, for your sewing evolution and your sewing journey. Leave those in the comments. Let's help inspire each other, whether it's a very specific, smart goal, specific, measurable, all of that attainable. Or if it's just something like me where it's just like, you know what, I'm just going to, it's like a more of an idea than an actual tangible thing. Let me know what it is in the comments. I can't wait to hear kind of where you guys are on your journeys and kind of what that, how that translates to your goals and resolutions for 2020. But that's going to do it for me today. Thank you all so much for watching and I will see you very soon. Bye.