Hey, everyone. Welcome to this week's video update. Today is Friday, March 3rd. One quick announcement before we jump into the trades from the week. We don't forget we will be streaming live Monday morning at 8.25 a.m. from both our YouTube channel, which is youtube.com forward slash navigation trading, as well as our Facebook page, facebook.com forward slash navigation trading. So we'll be doing a trade of the week every Monday morning, 8.25 a.m. central time, right before the market opens. We'll make different announcements and keep you guys up to speed on what's going on with upcoming events and new courses and stuff like that. So make sure you join us if you can. If you can't be there right at 8.25 central time, it will be posted right after you see. So you can go back and watch the recorded version. So look forward to that. Let's jump in. So trading was a little bit lighter this week, so not as many trades. And that really just has to do with the level of implied volatility that we're at. There's such low implied volatility in so many symbols, which creates less opportunity. But stay tuned, stay engaged, keep placing trades. And I promise implied volatility will spike again. It always does. And once that happens, we'll have a lot more trading opportunities. But let's jump in on Monday, the 27th. The first trade that we made was a put vertical that we bought in GLD. At the time, IV percentile was extremely low at 4. And so we were looking for an expansion in IV and or a down move in price for GLD. So if we take a look at what happened in GLD, this is the 27th right here. The bigger red bar. And that's when we got in. And over the next few days, as you can see, GLD just dropped pretty quick. They're a very nice trade for us. So we were able to get out of that trade at about a, I don't remember exactly what it was, 35, 40 percent of max profit within just a few days. So we booked that profit and moved on. That was a good quick trade for us this week. If we go to the next trade, another opening trade is we bought a butterfly in IWM. So we had implied volatility percentile spike to 57 at the time. And so let's take a look at that. If we take a look at IWM, as you can see implied volatility had a little period of spike up. And we got in at that point since then. It's just been crushed back down. But good thing we got in when we did. So if we take a look, here's the butterfly. So we've got a little bit of profit in that. Nothing to speak of at this point, not enough to take off. So we'll continue to monitor and send any alerts out on our IWM butterfly. And don't forget we're still holding an iron condor in the march cycle. So actually went up pretty decent today. Towards the end of the day, I didn't have a chance to get out of that at a nice profit. And the market's closed, so this pricing's a little bit off. We're not quite that much in the profit. But so we'll wait and hopefully get out of that trade on Monday, assuming IWM doesn't explode higher, which is very possible in this market. But I think we should be okay. And look to take that trade off pretty quickly on first thing Monday, potentially. Next trade we made was in wheat. We had an iron condor in wheat that we took off for a nice profit, closed out at a profit of 44% of max profit. Just remember in the grains, in corn and wheat and soybeans, remember the implied volatility tool is not accurate because of the nature of the way that the underlying futures roll and the exchanges provide the data, it doesn't function on those grains. So this is really just something that I kind of have to monitor manually. So a lot of times with the grains, when price moves up, that's when you'll see a spiking implied volatility. We did, we took advantage of that and then booked that profit for a nice gain. It took us about a month. We were in the trade for about a month, but we got a nice profit, so that was good. Next trade was in XLV, so an opening trade. Again, another put vertical, another directional trade. Just adding some short delta to our portfolio, with a lot of things, kind of it does price extremes to the upside. It can't go up forever. So a lot of things, we're just kind of looking for little pullbacks in, trying to stay engaged. And so XLV is up almost 10% in the last month. So if we take a look at a chart, as you can see, I mean, this thing's just been on a parabolic to the upside. Nothing says it can't keep going. However, I look at this as a good opportunity, a potential price extreme to see if we can't just get a little bit of a pullback, similar to what we saw in GLD earlier this week. So we'll continue to watch that. It's pretty much where we got it. We're down slightly on the trade now, just looking for a pullback. And remember, this April cycle, it's got, let's see, the April cycle now has still 49 days. So all we're hoping is that sometime in the next 49 days that price trades a little bit below where it is right now.  I like to take counter direction trades after seeing major moves. You see how major move here, and then boom, pullback. You saw this major move down, and then boom, pullback. So you never know when that's going to happen or where in the extension. But all you can do is place trades, and the fact that we want more short delta in our portfolio just bodes well, and XLV was the ETF of choice this time. Next trade was GLD. And so that was actually today, and that was closing that vertical, which I already mentioned. So let's go back to the platform and check out some other positions that we're in. We've still got a couple of positions on in natural gas. So this is one that we've been kind of battling for a while. We've got this inverted strangle where we've had to adjust it a couple times. And we're really just waiting for time to decay and for price to move back up into our range.  So we're still down on this trade, not to that extent. Probably just a couple hundred bucks at this point. I hadn't calculated it exactly. And then we've also got an iron condor here, which we are in the profit on. Not enough to take off yet, but we'll continue to monitor that. And then we've also got the put side of an iron condor on that remember when it moved all the way down, we took off the call side because it was pretty much at max profit and now we're still holding the losing side or the put side. And it has since come back. I'd like for it to go a little bit higher and then we can get out of this trade for this particular iron condor for a break-even or a small profit. So continue to monitor that. In the trading cycle for April, we still got 25 days, so nothing urgent to do at this point in natural gas except for weight. And if we look at the implied volatility, remember you've got to use UNG, which is the corresponding ETF, and that gives you the accurate reading for the implied volatility pretty low. So it has contracted nicely. We just had this major move down after we put on a couple of these positions and it's working its way back up. So we'll continue to monitor that and send out any alerts needed on natural gas. A corn. We've got a position on in corn and that is actually we've got a couple. So we've got this iron condor where it's still pretty centered, nothing to do there. And then we've also got the put side of a previous iron condor where it moved down. We took off the call side, we banked that for a full profit and then price has moved back nicely for us. So we could take it off right here and on the whole iron condor bank a nice little profit. I just wanted to hold this over the weekend if we can potentially get a little bit move higher or just kind of stay right here, get a little bit more juice out of this trade and then we'll bank that profit. So stay tuned for that. Apple. So I've got a trade on here and Apple that we put on which is simply just a directional short vertical trade, short put trade along with the rest of the market. Obviously Apple's been extremely explosive. Put this trade on when it was about here thinking we were at a potential price extreme looking for just a little bit of a pullback and Apple just continued to rip higher. So that's going to be, that's currently a losing trade and with this trade we've got 14 days left on that particular trade. Most likely it's going to end up being a loser but remember when you put these trades on especially defined risk trades because of the transaction costs and different things I mean this was purely just directional trade we either were going to profit or we were going to take the loss and so I'm okay taking this loss obviously it's not what I wanted but it served its purpose as far as providing short delta in the portfolio it just didn't work out for us. So more than likely we'll take a loss on this one but we'll just hold it and stranger things have happened Apple could have a major move down and get us right back to the profit in the next couple weeks but we'll see and we'll potentially look to add another position in the next cycle if it makes sense at that point hopefully we'll get some more volatility and won't need to be so directional. Remember directional plays are not as high probability a lot of times when you're buying debit spreads I mean you're putting those on as really 50-50 trades just trying to add directional bias in your portfolio and stay engaged in the market so that's one that's probably not going to work out but maybe it will. Now we've got a double calendar still in DIA which is the DAO ETF this market's closed now so this isn't quite accurate it expanded a little bit into the close but potentially be able to look at taking this off for a nice profit in DIA on Monday or early next week. Then EWW we've got this adjusted strangle that we're still managing down just slightly on the trade so looking for potentially a little bit of a move down in price for time to go by and then we can bank that profit hopefully. FXC we've got a profit in our iron condor here not enough to take off yet though so we'll continue to monitor and manage that. IWM I already mentioned that one QQQ NASDAQ we've got a profitable calendar in the Q's as well not quite enough to take off yet though looking for a little bit of a down move and an expansion in implied volatility and we'll bank that profit hopefully early next week. TLT we've got a double calendar implied volatility has contracted we need a little bit more of an expansion and a potential move to the upside to get out of that one so we're underwater a little bit in that one but we'll continue to monitor and manage that double calendar and TLT. XLV I mentioned that one and then XRT we've got a strangle in XRT still fairly centered no profit loss there just continue to manage that. XRT has been kind of our loan underlying that's had higher implied volatility and that's due to a couple things announcement on retail sales as well as a lot of retail companies with upcoming earnings announcement so what I'd like to see happen if we don't get out of this trade with a profit is implied volatility stays high I'll probably end up scaling in and adding another strangle on this next week to just widen our break evens give us more exposure with that high implied volatility underlying and continue to manage and monitor the current one hope that was helpful again Monday morning 8.25 we'll see you there on Facebook or YouTube for the live streaming and the trade of the week have a great weekend talk to you soon


Let's go over to our man, Mr. Basil Chapman, as we do each and every Tuesday and don't forget folks, Basil has an outstanding show here. Every trading day, 10 to 11 Eastern Standard Time, also a great newsletter, the opening call. Now, it's very easy to get a newsletter, folks, from over to our website at TFN. You're going to go into newsletters, you're going to see it right on the right hand side. You just hit that opening call. You're going to hit subscribe. You can get the opening call for one month for $149. You can get it for six months, for 6.95, which is a savings of $199.22, and you can get it for one full year for $11.95, which is a savings of $593.33 or 33%. Now, they all come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, folks. Basil not only does an outstanding newsletter, he has some great archives out there. You can go through them. You can really understand how to ride that wave each and every day. Basil Chapman, how you doing? Good afternoon, Tom. How are you? Good. You're getting your voice back. Hey, man, everyone liked that voice you had, and I'm sorry you were sick, but that was voice was pretty cool. That was a Paul Robeson voice. Yeah, it was very unusual. I wonder what happens to the body, how things can change like that. It actually put me down at least an octave lower than my normal tenor voice. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah, for sure, man. I thought I was listening to the Mafia when I was on my way to the airport on Friday. In a good way. It was a great voice, man. It was deep.  Yeah, it was awesome, though. Well, I hope it's going to be over because, yeah, the healthiness has to reach you. That's for sure, man. That's for sure. So, what are we looking at out here? So, there are a couple of things that are going on. One is, as I mentioned last week, we've been raising cash. We've raised stops in our long positions. If you're taking out, that's fine. I think there's going to be plenty of opportunity if this market does turn around. There are so many sectors that were very, very strong and then just got really decimated. If things turn around, there'll be plenty of buying opportunities. So, I'm not in a rush to do that. But what is very important is that within the context of patterns, I wonder if I can just do, I'll get this right now. It's because it's a very interesting pattern. There's a pattern that I talk about which is the price rises and then all of a sudden, it starts to fall and it makes lower highs and much lower lows. Then it finds some support and all of a sudden that declining expanding cone turns around with a V or a cup shape formation, takes out the declining trend line and actually works its way all the way to the upside. Well, it works both up and I reverse the chart so that even the lettering is upside down and it works on the way down. I have a couple of, really, basically a rule of thumb for, and just do that so you can see it. So, this is the daily chart of the Dow. And what has happened, we came sharply down to the 29,653 low of June the 17th and it started to rally and it kept making higher lows and then much higher highs and then eventually it went in the chapter, we went to a peak F at 34,281 on the 16th of, that was the 16th of August, turns around and that's a little, I call this a Sino-Doji candle after a high is made or one by before, one by after. It's very difficult to see because if you're looking at tops and bottoms, you won't necessarily be looking for some kind of a tiny plus sign Doji candle. Well, that's what you got right there on the day after that 16th high and then it started coming down. Well, three days later we went short via the DOG and we remain short. That's at about 33,300 in the Dow and what happens in this particular pattern when it goes just to a peak A or a B and turns around the pattern that you and I were talking about last week called the dreaded H. If it takes out that left side low that can get very much deeper but the higher it goes when eventually it turns around the source to make this extended expanding arch, expanding wedge formation is used up so much energy to the downside. Now I can move this away. So much energy that very often it starts to stall at what I call the Chapman Way inside track support area. That's now become a resistance area, but it doesn't go that far before it attempts to have a really good rally. See, it hasn't taken out the 29,653 low of June so far. So this is a very important moment in terms of the patterns. This is the daily pattern. It's a little different in the S&P and the QQQ, but you can see in the weekly chart, we've already taken out in the weekly chart, we've taken out that same support level and the monthly chart now is very important. So I think it's numbers that we're looking at because if after what is not what the Fed says or even what the Fed does, it's what the market, how the market responds. That's the only thing I like to look at. What will the market do after tomorrow at 2 o'clock or 2.30 with whatever the Fed and the Fed's in a very difficult position. So it's numbers. So 30,000, we're at 30,684 right now. In September, going to the first week of October, I think there's 30,000 psychologically and having to do with millennial levels. I think this is very important, the 30,000 it has to hold. If there is a rally, that rally has to get above everything that's being looked at as resistance and it has to get to the 31,500, 31,700. So for me, those are the important numbers that we're looking at. 900 points, but we know that in this market 900 points is not 900 points in a normal market. Today we had the spread. Look at the spread today. Well, actually I see the spread is not as much, but if you had looked at the futures folks, the spread would have been actually more, right? Yes. And look, the same thing happened in the S&P. Not by much, but we've taken out the key Chatham Wave inside track support level. Now that's a resistance level at the 3980s. We're at 3850s right now. If you look at the QQQ, the NDX100 training vehicle, that hasn't even broken above the inside track resistance level and held above it. It's gone once or twice, just above it, but it's come right back again. So there's a lot of work to be done. And that's what I'm saying. And I think I always use the SMHs as a good example of strength in the market. And the SMHs are holding right now. They're only down two or two or three, but they're at the very lower end of the rung. So there's a lot of work to be done. So that even if we get a terrific turnaround going into the end of next week, it's how the different sectors respond. You can get individual stocks within a sector. For instance, look at Tesla. Tesla doesn't even know that there's a bear market going on right now. It's holding very well. Will it continue? Well, it doesn't matter. At this particular point, you've got specific stocks in specific areas. But I'm saying as a general thing, I'm looking at semiconductors. I'm looking at the general market. I'd like the Dow 30 to at least get on track because it's just such a nice mix. It's got financials. In fact, if you look at the financials, XLF, the financials have held well, but not that much above the June high. But I mean, in essence, they're also being weakened. So I like to see the financials going with the general trend of the market. I like to see the semis. So there are a lot of wishes that we have, but price is the arbiter of the trend. So if we can get a good seven or 800 point rally going to a week from today, I think that'll be very good. And folks, come over to our website at TFNN. You're going to go right in the newsletters, hit newsletters, just see the opening call right on the right hand side. Hit that baby and you are off to the racist. Baz, you have a great one. Safe one. Glad you're feeling better. You know, I am. You are quite a trooper, man. I'm telling you. Well, I'm looking forward to the show tomorrow at 10 o'clock. There's a lot to discuss. I love it. Okay. Tomorrow, I'm on 10 o'clock, folks. Baz, I'll have a great one. Safe one. Thanks so much. Thank you very much, Tommy. Stay right there, folks. Come right back.