Live from San Francisco, it's theCUBE, covering RSA Conference 2020 San Francisco, brought to you by SiliconANGLE Media. Welcome back everyone, CUBE coverage here in Moscone in San Francisco for RSA 2020. I'm John Furrier, host of theCUBE. We got a great guest here talking about cybersecurity and the impact with AI and the role of data. It's always great to have Eric Mankeyan, Chief Security Insights Global Threat Alliances with FortiGuard Labs, part of Fortinet. FortiGuard Labs is a great, great organization. Thanks for coming on. It's a pleasure, always to be here. So you guys do a great threat report that we always cover. It's always covers all the bases and really kind of illustrates kind of the state of the art of viruses, the protection, threats, et cetera. But you're part of FortiGuard Labs. That's right. Part of Fortinet, which is a security company, public. What is FortiGuard Labs? What do you guys do? What's your mission? So FortiGuard Labs has existed since day one. You can think of us as the intelligence that's baked into the product, right? It's one thing to have a world-class product, but you need a world-class intelligence team backing that up. We're the ones fighting those fires against cyber crime on the back end, 24-7, 365, on a per-second basis. We're processing threat intelligence. We got over 10 million attacks. We're processing just per minute over 100 billion events in any given day that we have to sift through. We have to find out what's relevant. We have to find gaps that we might be missing detection and protection. We got to push that out to a customer base of 450,000 customers through FortiGuard Services and five million firewalls, a five million plus firewall ship now. So it's vitally important. You need intelligence to be able to detect and then protect and also to respond. Know the enemy, build a security solution around that and then also be able to act quickly about it if you are under active attack. So we're doing everything from creating security controls and protections so up to real-time updates for customers. But we're also doing playbooks. So finding out who these attackers are. Why are they coming after you? For a CISO, why does that matter? So this is all part of FortiGuard Labs. How many people are roughly involved? Take us a little inside the curtain there. What's going on? Personnel, size, scope. Yeah, so we're over 235. So for a network security vendor, this is the largest global sock that exists. Again, this is behind the curtains, like you said. These are the people that are fighting those fires every day, but it's a large team and we have experts to cover the entire attack surface, right? So we're looking at not just viruses, but we're looking at zero-day weapons, exploits and attacks, everything from cyber crime to cyber warfare, operational technology, all these sorts of things. And of course, to do that, we need to really heavily rely on good people, but also automation and artificial intelligence and machine learning models. You guys are walking on a tightrope there and I can only imagine how complex and stressful it is, just imagining the velocity alone. But one of the trends that's coming up here of this year at RSA and kind of been talking about in the industry is the who. A lot of who is the attacker because the shifts could shift and change. You got nation states are sitting out there. They're not going to have their hands dirty on this stuff. You got a lot of dark web activity. You got a lot of actors out there that go by different patterns, but you guys now have an aperture and the visibility is a lot of this stuff. Absolutely. So you can almost say that's that guy. That's the actor. That's a really big part. Talk about why that's important. This is critically important because in the past, let's say the first generation of threat intelligence was very flat, it was the what, right? So it was just talking about here's a bad IP, here's a bad URL, here's a bad file block it. But nowadays obviously the attackers are very clever. These are large organizations that are around a lot of people involved. There's real world damages happening and we're talking about, you look at OT attacks that are happening. Now there's, in some cases, 30, 40 million dollars from targeted ransom attacks that are happening. These people, A, have to be brought to justice so we need to understand the who, but we also need to be able to predict what their next move is. This is very similar to what you see online with CSI. The police trying to investigate and connect the dots like plotting the strings and the yarn on the map. This is the same thing we're doing, but on a way more advanced level. And it's very important to be able to understand who these groups are, what tools they use, what are the weapons, cyber weapons, if you will, and what's their next move potentially going to be. So there's a lot of different reasons it's important. You know, Derek, I was riffing with another guest earlier today about this notion of government protection. You know, we've got a military. Troops drop on our shores in my neighborhood. The Russians drop in my neighborhood, guess what? The police will probably come in and the army should take care of it. But if I got to run a business, do I got to build my own militia? So there's no support out there. The government's not going to support me. I'm hacked. Damage is done. You guys are in a way providing that critical lifeline that guard or shield, if you will, for customers. And they're going to want more of it. So I got to ask you the hard question, which is how are you guys going to constantly be on the front edge of all this? Because at the end of the day, you're in the protection business. Yep. Threats are coming at the speed of milliseconds and nanoseconds. Yeah. In memory, you need in memory, you need database, you got to have real time. It's a tsunami of attack. You guys are the front lines of this. Yeah. You're the heat shield. Yes, absolutely. How do you take it to the next level? Yeah. So collaboration, integration, having a broad integrated platform, that's our bread and butter. This is what we do, right? End to end security. The attack surface is growing. So we have to be able to, A, be able to cover all aspects of that attack surface. And again, have intelligence, right? So we're sharing through partners. We have our core intelligence network. Like I said, we're relying heavily on machine learning models to be able to find that needle in the haystack. Like as I said earlier, we're getting over a hundred billion potential threat events a day. We have to dissect that. We have to break it down. We have to say, what is this affecting endpoint? Is this affecting operational technology? What vertical? How do we process it? How do we verify that this is a real threat? And then most importantly, get that out in time and speed to our customers. So I started with automation years ago, but now really the way that we're doing this is through broad platform coverage, but also machine learning models for and- I want to dig into machine learning because I love that needle in the haystack analogy because if you take that to the next step, you got a stack of needles now. So you find a needle in the haystack.  What do you find that? You need AI. You got to have some help, but you still got the human component. So talk about how you guys are advising customers and how you're using machine learning and get that AI up and running for customers and for yourselves. Yeah, so we're technology people, right? I always look at this as the stack, the stack model. The bottom of the stack, you have automation, right? You have layer one, layer two. That's like the basic things for, you know, feeds, threat feeds, how we can push out, automate, integrate that. Then you have the human. So the layer seven, right? This is where our human experts are coming in to actually advise our customers. We're creating threat signals with FortiGuard Labs as an example. These are bulletins. That's a quick two to three page read that a CSCO can pick up and say, here's what FortiGuard Labs has discovered this week. Is this relevant to my network? Do I have these protections in place? There's also that automated. And so, you know, I refer to this as a centaur model. It's half human, half machine. And, you know, the machines are driving a lot of that the day-to-day mundane tasks, if you will, but also finding, you know, collecting the needles of needles. But then ultimately, we have our humans that are processing that, analyzing it, creating the higher level strategic advice. Recently, we've launched a FortiAI product as well. This has the concept of a virtual- Oh, so, backup zoom. What's it called? FortiAI. Okay, yeah. So it's AI components. Is it a hardware box or- This is an on-premises appliance built off of five plus years of learning that we've done in the cloud to be able to identify threats in malware, understand what that malware does to a detailed level.  How do we protect against it? Something that typically you would need four to five headcount in your security operations center to do, we're using this as an assist tool. So that's why it's a virtual analyst. It's really a bot, if you will, something that can actually help. So it's an enabling opportunity for the customers. Absolutely, yeah. So what's this virtual assistant built into the box? What does that do, virtual analyst? Yeah, so the virtual analyst is able to sit on-premises, so it's localized learning, collect threats, understand the nature of those threats, to be able to look at the needles of the needles, if you will, make sense of that, and then automatically generate reports based off of that, right? So it's really an assist tool that a network admin or a security analyst was able to pick up and virtually save hours and hours of time of resource. So if you look at the history of our technology industry from a personalization standpoint, AI and data, whether you're a media business, personalization is ultimately the result of good data AI. Yes, yeah. So personalization for an analyst would be how not to screw up their job, right, at one level. Another one's to be proactive on being more offensive. And then third, collaboration with others. So you're starting to see that kind of picture form. What's your reaction to that? Yeah, I think it's great. You know, there's stepping stones that we have to go through. The collaboration is not always easy. I'm very familiar with this.  There's always good intentions. There's problems that can be created.  But when it works right together, this is the way to do it. It's the same thing with, you talked about the data. Naturally, when you start building up IT stacks, you have silos of data. But ultimately, those silos need to be connected from different departments. They need to integrate and collaborate. It's the same thing that we're seeing from the security front now as well. Well, you guys have proven the model of Fortegaard that the more you can see, the more visibility you can see and more access to the data in real time or any time scale, the better the opportunity. So I got to take that to the next level where you guys are doing it, congratulations. But now the customer. How do I team up with, if I'm a customer with other customers, because the bad guys are teaming up. So the teaming up is now a real dynamic that companies are deploying. How are you guys looking at that? How is Fortegaard helping that? Is it through services? Is it through the products like virtual assistant, virtual for AI? Yeah, so you can think of this. I always make it an analogy to the human immune system, right? Artificial neural networks are built off of neural nets. If I have a problem in an infection, say on one hand, the rest of the body should be aware of that. That's collaboration from node to node, right? Blood cells, blood cells, it's the same thing with employees of a network in men sees a potential problem. They should be able to go and talk to the security at men who can go in, log into an appliance and create a proper response to that. This is what we're doing in the security fabric to empower the customer. So the customer doesn't have to always do this and have the humans actively doing those cycles.  So security orchestration between devices that's taking that gap out from the human to human, walking over with a piece of paper to another, or whatever it is, that's one of the key points that we're doing within the actual security fabric. So that's why silos is problematic. Absolutely, yeah. Because you can't get that impact. Yeah, and it also creates lag time. We have a need for speed nowadays. Threats are moving incredibly fast. I think we've talked about this on previous episodes with swarm technology, offensive automation, the weaponization of artificial intelligence. So it becomes critically important to have that quick response and silos really create barriers. Of course, I make it slower to respond. Oh, Derek, so I got to ask you, it's kind of like, I don't want to say it sounds like sports, but what's the state of the art in the attack vectors coming in? What are you guys seeing as some of the best of breed tax that people should really be paying attention to? They may or may not have fortified down. What are socks looking at? And what are security pros focused on right now in terms of the state of the art? Yeah, so the things that keep people up at night, right? So we follow this in our threat landscape report. Obviously, we just released our key four one with 40 guard labs. We're still seeing the same culprits. This is the same story we talk about a lot of times, things like it used to be eternal blue and now blue keep. You know, these vulnerabilities that are nothing new, but still pose big problems. We're still seeing that exposed on a lot of networks. Targeted ransom attacks, I was saying early, we've seen this shifter evolution from ransomware from day to day, like, you know, pay us $300 or $400. We'll give you access to your data back as to going after targeted accounts, high revenue business streams. So, you know, low volume, high risk. That's the trend that we're starting to see as well. And this is what I talk about for trying to find that needle in the haystack, right? This is again why it's important to have eyes on that, yeah. Well, you guys are really advanced and you guys doing great work. So congratulations. I got to ask you kind of like the spectrum of IT. You got a lot of people on the high end. Financial services, healthcare, they're regulated. They've got all kinds of challenges. But as IT and the enterprise starts to get woke to the fact that everyone's vulnerable. Yeah. I've heard people say, I'm good. I got a small little man and I'm only a hundred million dollar business. All I do is manufacture. I don't really have any IP. So what are you going to steal? So that's kind of a naive approach. Yeah. Yeah. The answer is, what, your operations ransomware? There's a zillion ways to get taken down. What are, how do you respond to that? Yeah, yeah, absolutely, absolutely. Going after the crown jewel is what hurts, right? So it might not be a patent or intellectual property. Again, the things that matter to these businesses, how they operate day to day, the obvious example is what we just talked about with revenue streams. And then there's other indirect problems too. Obviously, if that infrastructure of a legitimate organization is taken over and it's used as a botnet in an orchestrated denial of service attack to take down other organizations, that's going to have huge implications. And they won't even know it. Right, in terms of brand damage, there's legal implications as well that happen. This is going even down to the basics with consumers, thinking that they're not under attack, but at the end of the day, what matters to them is their identity. Identity theft, right? But this is on another level when it comes to the organization. Yeah, there's all kinds of things to do in this. You guys, there's so much more advance on the attacker side. All right, so I got to ask you a final question.  What do I do? What's my strategy? How would you advise me? How do I get my act together? I'm whacking the mole every day. I'm trying my best. I'm pedaling as fast as I can. I'm overloaded. What do I do? How do I go the next step? So look for security solutions that are the assist model, like I said, right? There's never ever going to be a universal silver bullet to security. We all know this, right? But there are a lot of things that can help up to that 90%, 95%, right? So depending on the nature of the threats, having first detection first, that's always the most important. See what's on your network. This is things where SIM technology, sandboxing technology has really come into play, right? Once you have those detections, how can you actually take action? So look for integration. Really have a look at your security solutions to see if you have the integration piece. Orchestration and integration is next after detection. Finally, from there, having a proper channel. There's services you looked at for managed incident response as an example. Education and cyber hygiene are always key. These are free things that I push on everybody, right? I mean, we release weekly threat intelligence briefs. We're doing our quarterly threat landscape reports. We have something called threat signal. So it's 40 guard response to breaking industry events. I think that's key. Hygiene seems to come up over and over as the, that's the foundational bedrock of security. Yeah, and then, you know, as I said, ultimately, where we're heading with this is the AI solution model, right? And so that's something, again, that's that I think. Well, one final question since it's just popped into my head, I wanted to end on that last one, but I wanted to bring it up since you kind of were getting at it. And I know you guys are very sensitive to this one topic because you live it every day, but the notion of time and time elapsed is a huge concern because you got to know it's not if it's when. So the factor of time is a huge variable in all kinds of impact. Yes, yeah. Positive and negative. How do you talk about time and the notion of time elapsing? That's a great question. Yeah, so there's many ways to stage that. I'll try to simplify it. So number one, if we're talking about breaches, time is money, right? So the dwell time, the longer that a threat sits on a network and it's not cleaned up, the more damage is going to be done. I mean, think of the ransom attacks, denial of service, revenue streams being down. So that's the incident response problem, right? So time is very important to detect and respond. So that's one aspect of that. The other aspect of time is with machine learning as well. This is something that people don't always think about. They think that artificial intelligence solutions can be popped up overnight and within a couple of weeks they're going to be accurate. It's not the case. Machine's learning like humans do. It takes time to do that. It takes processing power. Anybody can get that nowadays. Data, most people can get that. But time is critical to that. So it's a fascinating conversation. There's many different avenues of time that we can talk about. And time to detect is also really important as well, again. Let's do a whole segment on that in our studio or follow up on that. I think it's a huge topic. I hear about all the time. It's a little bit illusive, but it kind of focuses your energy on, wait, what's going on here? I'm not reacting, it's a huge issue. Yeah, I mean, I refer to it as latency, right? I mean, latency is a key issue in cybersecurity, just like it is in the stock exchange.  If you have a good time, latency, you can actually be a little bit offensive. Why not take a little bit more offense? Absolutely. Why play defense the whole time? So again, you're starting to see this kind of mentality, not being just an IT, we got to cover, okay, respond, no, hold on to the ball game. Yeah, it comes back to the sports analogy again, right? Got to have a good offense, the West Coast offense. Derek, thanks so much. Quick plug for you, FortiGuard. Share with the folks what you guys are up to, what's new, what's the plug? Yeah, so FortiGuard Labs, so we're continuing to expand. Obviously, we're focused on, as I said, adding all the customer protection first and foremost, but beyond that, we're doing great things in industry, right? So we're working actively with law enforcement, with Interpol, Cyber Threat Alliance, with the World Economic Forum, and the Center for Cyber Security. There's a lot more of these collaboration key stakeholders. You talked about the human to human before. We're really setting the pioneering and setting that world stage, I think. So it's really exciting to me. It's a lot of good industry initiatives. I think it's impactful. We're going to see an impact. The whole goal is we're trying to slow the offense down, the offense being the cyber criminals, right? So there's more coming on that end. You're going to see a lot of great, follow our blogs at FortiGuard.com, and all the great reports. I'm a huge believer in that the government can't protect us digitally. There's going to be protection, heat shields out there. You guys are doing a good job. It's only going to be more important than ever before. So congratulations. Thanks for coming on. I really appreciate it. Never a adult day, as we say. All right, it's theCUBE's coverage year in San Francisco for RSJ 2020. I'm John Furrier, your host. Thanks for watching.


What's the word y'all we are back with a recap man? We got three games to talk about because yesterday we had a playoff game I don't really have much to say about Milwaukee versus Brookless all tagging on to the end of this one But we just found out that James Hardness alpha game number two turn off injuries, please It is just messing up this whole thing, but I mean based on game one it seemed like they may not need them We'll talk about that a little bit later I want to talk about the game that is fresh in my mind that is the clippers getting the win and game seven I guess the Dallas matters but technically come back. You know I'm saying they were down three two They went to Dallas got a win and they came home to gotta win the first roll team to get a win and it was it was kawai This man kawai put on a masterclass of being able to take over games shoot efficiently Playmake kawai Leonard the playmaker and guard your team's best player It is kind of insane like I'm gonna go back to our last episode when you're talking about within Lakers got eliminated How I said in that that we didn't have that takeover LeBron I'm not going home moment that you want from not just LeBron But from like any star player on the team faced elimination you want them to like give me give me the ball I'm gonna go get a basket kawai Leonard did that in game number six I wanted to do a whole episode of game number six about that kawai Leonard did that in game number six He got to his spots and he completely took over said I'm not going home and then in game seven He may not have had the most he didn't have the dominant offensive performance isn't in game number six He shot 10 for 15. He almost had a triple dough I know triple doubles ain't the same as what they used to be You know, Russell Westberg has done it four out of five years Luka don't just put no blue triple doubles triple doubles are not easy to get but um easier to get than maybe ever before But kawai Leonard the guy that's not really known for his playmaking to be one assist away on the triple double in a game Seven will also suit him 10 for 15 and also Gordon Luka Donchich. It's incredible, right? And we're gonna talk about this a little bit when we talk about the Trey young versus Philly game people always question like man You like in this case right Ben Simmons a top three defense player to a candidate But in the first half against Trey young he didn't get the assignment you like why this guy could guard one through five Why do we not have been Simmons on Trey young what we found out is I guess it don't really matter too much because Ben Simmons Got Swiss stones to Trey and I think he picked up two really really quick fouls And I think Trey young maybe just a little bit too quick for him But either way when you have a guy like kawai Leonard like Ben Simmons to an extent that is doing so much on the Offense aside of the ball and yes, I'm saying Ben Simmons is doing a lot on offense I know he's not jump shooting. He may not be scoring a ton. He's doing a lot off the side of the ball It's hard to ask a player a drop 40 for us and also guard Luka. Please pretty please. That's the only chance we got Kawai is a robot Goura is a robot. He literally did that he dropped 40 something points while guarding Luka Donchich And and you know, I'm giving a lot of credit to Tyron Lou I've been a critical a guy that's been really critical of a Tyron Lou Throughout his tenure here before when he was at Cleveland But he made the necessary adjustments to win this series, bro If he doesn't make the adjustments on on the Luka Donch's defense that he did in the second half of some of these games If you didn't make the adjustments to tell Zubats You got to sit your butt down because you can't play in this series and to have the guns to stick to playing Ultra small ball you got a 7-3 and a 7-4 player on the other side and they got this win Got this win. I'm excited to see this next series, man Um, I think the Clippers match up pretty well as Utah. This is gonna be Utah's testament You know, I'm saying if Utah can get out of this I think a lot of people don't believe in Utah as a real contender contender Even though there was a number one team in the league Historically greats three-point shooting team all of this all of that Um, I think I think majority of people will probably pick the Clippers to win this series. I'm not making a prediction I'm just letting you know what I think majority people will pick Because they will have the best player in Kawaii Leonard And what we just saw in the last two games is when it matters the most Kawaii Leonard can up it a little bit And but at the end of the day in this game number seven a lot of this had to do with the others I know we always talk about the others And I'm not gonna get to the spiel of it. But the others for the others for the Clippers. This is what we got Marcus Morse 23 a Series high for him not a seven of nine from three and he hit the dagger to close the game Nicholas Batum had been great or defensively all series long You got Reggie Jackson who had a 20-something game last the other day and now backs up with 15 and another dagger type shot Terrence Mann who wasn't even getting rotational minutes last season the playoffs put up 26 minutes and at 13 points Right at Bobon and then like like Lucanard who didn't even play the first half of the series making a lot a lot a lot of money Making a lot of money. Hey, he put up 11 and hit a couple big shots as well And then you look on the other side of things the others for Luca now Luca did not play an amazing second half But the others for him didn't really step up Tim Hardaway Jr. Goes down an injury really really early on and I don't know if that was the reason he shot one for nine But he missed some time and it was with his ankle or something like that. Bobby was really solid poor Zegas Poor Zegas poor Zegas get a door finish me. I've had a good game too He was everyone off inside of the ball or offensive rebounding poor Zegas This is this is whenever a team gets eliminated my mind immediately thinks about okay What does their offseason look like right? Let's quickly talk about what the Dallas Mavis all season should look like Because believe it or not the Dallas Mavis are not a young team They have a young star right and it's value with building a team right now around Luca because you don't have to pay him Max money when he he will get max money as soon as he's eligible So this value in trying to build a contender or championship team right now and they thought they did it with the poor Zegas tray. Hey, we got this one two punts We got the seven three center that can stretch and also do a little bit is he can defend the paint He hasn't been what you want him to be he hasn't been a two option if anything has been three options But you're paying him like the one option So they have to figure out how you get a second star alongside Luca because there's too many moments in these games As great as Luca is and he makes some of the craziest shots I've seen it's too many moments where he knows they're like, bro Nobody else in this court can create their own shot. So I have to do it all He needs someone else on his roster to do that And if I'm not mistaken the Dallas mavericks will have a little bit of cap space this offseason I didn't do too much research But I feel like they can make the necessary moves to get another guy They can also handle the ball another guy that can create his own shot for Luca because they need that as soon as possible Because you don't want to be paying Luca don't just this max money that you missed that window I mean the Atlanta Hawks are the perfect example of this we'll get to that game in a second We're like Trey young cylinders Ricky contract this offseason. They went spending by Donovitz Galanari They had rondo they spent the rondo Chris Dunn They had all his money because they're star player They're also a couple players make it like five million dollars because he's he's allowed to pick a few years ago So I'm curious to see what they do The MBAs is such a good hands with Luca and Trey young and Donovan Mitchell and Devin But think about all the players that said big-time moments in this playoffs right now Just they're just all like under 25 26 years old. It's crazy Then Simmons Joel and beat I'm still counting them as young even though they've been in the league for a long time So congratulations to the Clippers moving on to the next round the Dallas mavericks have some real big decisions to make The Josh Richardson trade is looking worse and worse by the day six total minutes played in this one and two turnovers Seth Curry Seth Curry in this game is a difference maker. That's all I'm saying. That's all I'm really saying So let's move on to the other game of today because it was a crazy woman You let a Hawks come out 50 points and to 20 or something like it was the biggest lead Let me see what the biggest lead of this game was the biggest lead of the game was 26 I mean, it was a 26 point game at one point and they almost threw it all the way That last six minutes was the most intense basketball I've seen in a long time bro because they didn't want it It seemed like they did not want to shout out to bogey because he hit the shot that mattered the most And then he came down and hit some free throws when he had it shot a whole free throw in the game until this point Big time over here, but Trey young in his first half Amazing second half got a little bit more difficult. They start throwing more covers Then you got you got some Ben Simmons minutes You got some anti-style you saw some double teams They tried to get the ball out of Trey young's hand, which is a good thing But not maybe a good thing good thing without by Donovan's is hitting the shots came hurt It's in the shot Williams coming to the game So like I love Trey young because he he's a very capable passer more than capable passer So he sees his double team and he's able to find the man in the split second But all that almost went down the tank bro all of it and that's why I think this is gonna be a good series Bro, I think originally because on my podcast they make they make you pick. Hey, what is this series going to? I think I was like Philly in five. I think I may have said Philly in five But I hope it's not this game. She was way better than I expected it to be honestly And I think I said feeling five more net on Joe the beat is completely healthy in it from game of one It looks like he was but the type of urgency that Philly play with in that last six minutes They need to play with that off of 40 42 more minutes on top of that six You know I'm saying because they didn't have that in the first three and a half quarters And then they put it together But I mean the fact that they got this win Atlanta got this win without DeAndre Hunter is crazy because So I'm gonna give a couple shots in the early on but after that It was just like nothing from him and then they just couldn't get the ball in balance They couldn't get the ball up the court like double team double team double team Matisse is here Ben Simmons is here. You Seth Curry is here on sometimes in Joel and B Being able to just be at the right place the right time to get so many layups and one layup layup left It was crazy, but Atlanta got the win and that's all that really matters You know they said serious as it started to a real take gets a win the road They got a win in game number one on Philly side of the ball if Joel and B this this will happen until The day he retires every time this man gets hit.  So like people always have a man Joel and B can't say healthy can't say healthy I always try to figure out because I've heard people say being healthy and being available is a skill When a lot of like think about Joel and B's injuries Think about him the injury he had in the last game when he got injured against Washington He went up for a layup and got blocked and landed weird, you know I'm saying but then again This is me rambling of course Derek Rose changed the whole way he landed after his ACL because he was landing wrong it was hurting his legs and stuff So I don't know maybe Joel and B need to go to the same kinesthetic Trainer that Derek Rose went to to learn how to land better So everybody ain't grimacing every time he falls Kevin Ryan falls into this is too too for me now but Kevin Ryan has Hit had really big falls this playoffs and just got right back up So I don't know maybe I shouldn't be grimacing because he don't he don't get injured I'm excited for game number two. That's all I could really say I'm excited for game number two I'm excited to see how they defend Trey young early on instead of like the covers that they were using and yeah Excited to see hopefully Ben Simmons shoot more than 30% from the free-throw line because at the end of the day I don't know who I was listening to But they were saying if Ben Simmons can become a 60% free-throw shooter Nobody will foul him anymore because it's 1.2 points per possession Which is good instead of the one point present point per possession if you shoot 50% would say he shot 30% So I would have been hacking be a hacker be a hacker because he can't hit him But if this may can get to 60% you won't get hacker Ben anymore So let's let's get into the lab. Let's get into a lot I don't know how you got two stars You're gonna be being the same size bigger than you and he should shoot so effectively and you can't you know I would I would hope that they like in the gym to gather at least a little bit But I mean, I don't know last game we want to talk about last night Let's talk about Milwaukee in Brooklyn James Harden going down injury hurts for me I mean as a fan as a fan as viewing this but at the end of the day didn't matter too much because Blake Griffin stepped up Um the guy that was playing overseas, you know, they always got to say that Mike James stepped up amazingly 30 minutes for Mike James in a Playoff game. It's kind of crazy. He did that though a Bruce Brown big-time minutes This was not a carry urban game who had 25. This is not even a Kevin Arrant game who had 29 This was a Joe Harris. This was a Blake Griffin and this was a Mike James game Which is crazy now I don't I'm not overreacting to this because at the end of the day a team that is one of the greater Three-point shooter teams in the league shot three for 30 from three Chris Middleton ended with what 13 total points with 23 shots I don't expect that to happen too much But this is but this is something that I've said before when I was thinking about the Lakers like many Lakers ain't about to Shoot 25% the whole see they almost did Whatever it is you got to correct it immediately and I feel like a broken record when I'm talking about the Bucks I'm talking about coast bud and and I thought this this track record that ended because in the first series it seemed like he was playing Yanis all these minutes he was playing Chris Middleton Joe Holly all these minutes and then in game number one you don't even play Yanis 40 minute I don't understand that Like yes, the the Brooklyn that's had this game like pretty convincingly, but it was never completely completely over So we need Yanis to be on the court more Especially if his support and cast ain't doing nothing. He's the only one that's keeping you in the game right now I don't think I don't expect bring Forbes to shoot one for five I don't expect you how they shoot to first two for seven Christmas over five I don't expect them to shoot this bad from three again And that's like that's what they're gonna have to do to have a chance in a series because if they don't hit their shots Here's me big brain if they don't hit their shots, they can't win. That's the that was big brain That's all we want to say 43 seconds in kill my parley by the way. I had James Harden going off at 30 Barely got 30 seconds play, you know


Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Private Property Podcast. My name is Heti the Entrepreneur and I am super excited to be your guest host this evening. We've got a very, very interesting topic that we're talking about this evening and I certainly do not come alone. But before we get started, let's mark the register, shall we? Let me know your name and where you're joining from within the comment section. We've got a really fantastic show that is lined up this evening and of course right over here at Private Property, we always ensure that we come with your viewing pleasure. So this entire week, we always have a fantastic lineup for you every evening at 8 p.m. We've got the Home Shoppers show with Chad, we've got the First-Time Home Buyers show with Estie and we've also got the Farming Podcast with Mbali Nwokhu. So this is really fantastic because we have your viewing pleasure as our top priority. So very warm welcome to you all. I see we've got individuals from all over the country. We've got Cape Town, we've got Durban, we've got Pretoria. This is absolutely fantastic. I really am quite excited to be guest hosting this evening. And thank you so, so much for being part of the Private Property Community and Tribe. Our lucky giveaway is still ongoing. I wonder who's going to scoop up the 500 Rand this evening. Can you take a wild guess? Let me know within the comment section. I'd like to see if you actually have any questions. In the comment section, I'd like to see if you actually guessed correctly. I am so, so excited for our topic this evening. I am joined by Michelle Dickens, who is the founder of the TPN Credit Bureau Group. Good evening, Michelle. How are you this evening? Thanks, Hetty. Very well. So excited to be joining you this evening. Thank you so much, Michelle. For those individuals that aren't familiar with yourself or your company, can you tell me what exactly does the TPN Credit Bureau Group do? Oh, Hetty, I'd love to. So what we do is we are the Bureau that collects data on tenant's behavior around South Africa. And this allows two segments of the market to benefit. The landlord firstly, because they can place quality tenants in their property. We can provide data analytics back to the market. And secondly, we profile tenant behavior enabling tenants and the majority are quality tenants enabling quality tenants to build a positive credit profile for themselves. That will be their first foothold to get into first time home buyer with a rental profile that shows how wonderfully they've been paying their rent and therefore motivating a home loan for them. Oh, that's absolutely fantastic. And really such a valuable resource for tenants to be able to get out there. So I think that is really fantastic. Now, Michelle, I know that you recently released the TPN Vacancy Report. In terms of a high level overview, what is the report about? What is its objectives? So the report has two objectives. The first is to try and understand the market strength of the residential sector. So do we have high strong demand or is demand weak at the moment from the tenants? And in terms of supply, do we have a lot of supply in the market or is supply weak at the moment? From both of those sets of data, we can then create a market strength index to see if we've got a market that's got excess demand from the tenants or a market that has excess supply. And then we look at that across different regions, different rental values. So do we have excess supply in the top end of the market but excess demand in the affordable end of the market? And then from that, we derive a second question, which is the vacancies. So how many properties are standing vacant at the moment? These are properties where they are ready for a tenant. They're not being held back for maintenance. There's not a delinquent tenant sweating in the property. These are properties that are open and available and are welcoming a tenant but standing vacant. And so from this data over time series, this gives us an important indication from a landlord perspective leading into the next facet, which is escalations. So our rental price is going up or down. If we've got a low demand and high supply and the vacancies are high, we're going to end up with negative escalation territory. And this then feeds into whether people need to drop their rents to get a tenant and what impact that will have on their returns and ultimately the landlords because we want to make an income return out of this property. It's such a fascinating area because at some point, most individuals have found themselves on either side of the spectrum, either being a landlord or being a tenant. And I suppose I'm going to put you in the tough spot of asking the age old question. Is it a buyer or a seller's market at the moment? That's such a fabulous question. Ultimately, what's happening at the moment is we've had a very stagnant market in terms of house price increases leading into the pandemic period. And then according to FNB's home house price index, the house prices escalated during the latter half of last year and the early part of this year to 4.6% capital growth, which is fantastic because it came off a base of 1.2% and I've been very low for a long period of time. It's starting to come off the well. So house prices are starting to come back down again. So is it a buyer's market or a seller's market right now? We're seeing that of the properties that are being sold in the investment space, 18% of those properties are being sold less than what they were purchased for. So I would suggest that if you go out and have a proper look, you're going to find some property bargains out there at the moment. That's quite interesting. So I suppose that's really good news for buyers, but this must have quite an impact on landlords in terms of their perception of the marketplace. So how is the perception of the landlords currently? Are we seeing it more optimistic or more pessimistic? Yeah, so we've seen the supply rating has kind of stabilized. So there certainly appears to be an oversupply perception from the market. And in fact, landlords have a more negative perception than property managers themselves. So we look at the data coming in from a property manager or a landlord. Landlords directly perceive the market to be weaker than the property manager perceives the market to be, but the demand rating is improving. So we're definitely seeing from the perception of landlords and property managers that there's more demand for rental stock at the moment. And I think that's just because people are settling down. Job security has improved. I know we've got the worst unemployment numbers, but from the middle market segment, we certainly have a lot more job security from an income point of view. And so people are starting to move back into the rental market space. That's quite interesting. So with that influx of people now beginning to get back into the rental market space, are we finding the tenants, because of their perception of the market being in their favour, are we finding that they're negotiating more on prices and are they getting their way? Yeah, so there's a fascinating report that indicates that people who have had to cut back on their budgets, what have they been cutting back on? So have there been 39% of the respondents said we're going to shop at a cheaper grocery store? 39% of the respondents said we're going to switch DSTV or streaming to a cheaper version. 13% said that we are tenants and we're downscaling. So we're opting to cancel the lease that we currently in for more affordable lease and that's absolutely what we are seeing in our data. So we're seeing that there's a stronger demand for more affordable type properties and definitely the tenants are downscaling at the moment. Overall, we've seen that rental has been negative escalation for a period of, overall, for a period of quarter one and quarter two of this year. So quarter four and quarter one of this year and we've popped back into positive escalation. And when I say pop back into positive escalation, I'm talking about 0.23%. So a quarter of a percent overall. But that's not across all the properties, right? We still see in any property above $7,000 per month, still negative escalation. We're still seeing in the Western Cape and Haating, we're still seeing negative escalation. My Haating is fascinating because it is home to 50% of all of South African's tenants. So when you look at the entire tenant database, 50% of those tenants reside in the Haating province. So Haating is kind of an important province to understand the dynamics of. Absolutely. It is quite an interesting one. And, you know, having said that, when we look at Santon, for example, 26% vacancy rate in that area, is this predominantly now among your office parks, et cetera? And what would you say is driving this trend? Yeah, absolutely. So GrowthPoint released their data today as well. And so absolutely, Santon is one of those areas from an office perspective, high, high vacancies. If I'm correct, I think the numbers were 25 or 26%. When we look at it from a residential perspective, in the quarter to 26% of residential tenants, we had vacancies in those properties. This quarter nine, quarter three, that data is now at 10%. So what does that mean? It means that Santon landlords have reverted their prices back to prices last seen in 2017. So we have seen, right? So landlords, in order to fill that space, I mean, 26% vacancies is a quarter of the properties. And in order to improve those vacancies, we've had to increase or decrease rental quite substantially in that luxury end of the market. And those vacancies, it's driven by supply. We've seen a lot of office conversions in the Santon market as well. And that's what's been driving the supply into that market. That really is quite fascinating and an interesting indicator of the sign of the times people are working from home. They're converting their homes into businesses. We're really living in very, very interesting times where the traditional way of going about life is really, really changed. Let us know private property family within the comment section. Are you a renter or a tenant? Are you a landlord? Are you finding that you're working from home more often these days? Get in on the conversation and definitely let us know within the comment section. Now, Michelle, we speak of Santon, but then when we look at the Western Cape, we find that they have got the highest concentration of the biggest renters and the biggest spenders. Is this because of the foreign currency that's within that economy? What is driving that? Because that's quite different from Santon, isn't it? So Western Cape is fascinating and Cape Town in particular. Up until December of 2017, we had a lot of international tourists coming in. And we also had a lot of immigration down into the Western Cape. So Western Cape, compared to the rest of the country, was still operating with a house price index growth. Atlantic Seaboard was still sitting at 33% year on year house price growth in 2018, right? The rental escalation was sitting at 15%. The rest of the country was sitting at 5%. So Western Cape, up until December 2017, was having a ball. What happened in December of 2017 was we had the drought. And so we had 300,000 less tourists coming into the Western Cape at that period of time. And we also had a slowdown of immigration. So as house prices became unaffordable, less housing families were relocating down to that particular area. And so that put a damper on both the house price index growth as well as the rental escalation growth. Then you hit the pandemic and now we've got no tourists coming in as well. So you've got no international tourists coming into that area as well. So what happened was we had a lot of Airbnb properties, short-term land properties, coming off the short-term land market and into the long-term land market. Now, once you're in the long-term market, you can't just in three months' time decide, you know, and I want to move back into the short-term because you've got a 12-month lease agreement. So this has an impact on the supply side of the Western Cape and particularly the Cape time market, declining number of tenants in the demand section and an increased number of supply in terms of your short-term lease coming into the long-term market. Wow, this is absolutely fascinating. Ladies and gentlemen, if you want more information about what we are talking about this evening, then you definitely want to check out the TPN Credit Bureau Group's Vacancy Report because that really has all of the juicy information that we're talking about this evening. Now, we've reached the midpoint of our show and that means the moment that you've been excited and waiting for and contemplating about within the section has reached the point at which we are at. So let me know within the comment section if you are excited to hear about tonight's winner. Give me a ready in the comment section if you were excited to hear who the winner is tonight for our competition. Awesome. I see ready, ready, ready, ready, ready. Let us roll the random selector. I wonder who is going to grab it this evening. It's 500 grand that's up for grabs. Let's take a look. Fantastic. I see that our winner is Chanel Fouri. Chanel Fouri, you are the winner of the 500 grand this evening.  If you aren't here, then the amount is going to roll over. So please do announce yourself within the comment section so that you can claim your 500 grand. Not bad for a beautiful Thursday evening. Now, Michelle, going back and looking at the vacancy report for an individual that is looking to invest within the property market at the moment. What are kind of the returns that one can expect, particularly if you are looking, let's say at a full title or a sectional title. Given the information within the vacancy report, what can one expect from a return's perspective? So what TPN does is we collect data on the rental value out there and your gross yield is the easiest way to compare different property categories, full title, sectional title, number of bedrooms, regions, etc. And in order to do this, we take the annual range of the property. We divide it by the market value of the property and that gives us our gross yield. Of course, after your gross yield, you do want to deduct your expenses in order to get your net income. So from our data, we can see that sectional title moments are achieving a 10.4% gross yield. Our full title properties are achieving a 7.6% gross yield. And this is typically because you can achieve a higher rental value for a smaller, more contained unit that you can for a bigger unit compared to its market value. We're looking at two bedrooms achieving the highest yield, then our one bedrooms and then back up to our three bedrooms. And what do tenants want at the moment? Tenants want two-bedroom properties. According to our data, the most search for properties are two-bedroom units and sectional title security is such a big importance. So our tenants are telling us we price sensitivity, security issues and well maintained properties. So properties that aren't becoming a little bit dilapidated. Those are going to attract the better quality tenants. You're going to get your best price for it. And of course, that's going to determine your yield at the end of the day. By region, let's talk a little bit about the region. The Western Cape, we know, I mean, the property prices there had been growing faster than the rest of the country. So our house price index there or our average rental house market price is going to have a weakening effect on our returns. So the Western Cape only sitting at 8.6%. Compared with Khartin, which is closer to 11%. But it's not just about the yields, because the first thing you have to do in order to achieve those yields is collect the rent. And, right, so the Western Cape are our best performing tenants in terms of collections. So closer to 84% of the Western Cape tenants are in good standing, whereas Khartin is sitting at 78%. So rent collection goes hand in hand with your ability to achieve real yield. Absolutely. Absolutely. So, so fascinating and very interesting information for landlords and those that are looking to invest as well. Now, of course, we've got these wonderful individuals that sit right in the middle of the sellers and the buyers, which are the estate agents. So with the information that's contained within the vacancy report, how is the current climate voting for estate agents? So we look at the data across the entire rental market, and we try to assess how many properties are managed by the landlord themselves versus how many properties are managed by the estate agency market. And the numbers, you know, they shift around a little bit over the years. We've been doing this for two decades, for 20 years, and the numbers move around, but they stay, you know, more or less in line with a 50, 70% split. So estate agents manage 30% of the rental market and landlords manage 70% of landlords manage the property themselves. A lot of those landlords will engage with the property manager from a procurement perspective. So help me find a tenant because this is this is one of the areas that estate agents are absolutely brilliant is that having a big network of potential applicants tenants. The majority of landlords are micro landlords. So these are the majority of landlords have less than nine properties within their portfolio. And a big segment of those actually have less than five properties within their portfolio. That's still manageable, right? When you've got five to nine properties, that's still manageable. But when you get beyond that really becomes a full-time job. And that's where you need the support of your property manager to be able to manage the maintenance of all of those properties, the turn of the tenants of all of those properties. It can become a full-time job. Yeah, absolutely. And it actually really goes to show what a large number of landlords we actually have with, let's say, between five to nine properties. It's quite a big pool of individuals that fall within that bracket. So that really is quite interesting. In terms of just the environment as a whole, what would you say the general sentiment is? Do you think that we are on a road to recovery? So certainly the numbers that we're seeing are pointing towards recovery. Vacancies have improved. We were sitting at 13% for three quarters. And now we're sitting at 10.6%. That's an improvement. Escalations were negative. Overall, now we see escalations have moved back into positive territory. That's a good news story. The number of tenants in good standing had deteriorated to 73.5% in the hard lockdown. Those numbers have improved. We're back up to 80%. That's a good news story. The number of tenants who were in a squat position, in other words, tenants who are four or more months in arrears of not paying their rent at all. So they're sitting in the property and they haven't paid rent for a minimum of four months. We had seen those numbers increase to 1.8%. They declined back to more 0.9%, which is kind of where we were before the lockdown. And they've increased a little bit to 1.2% at the moment. Still not as bad as the 1.8% that we were at. For me, that's a good news story. And I'll tell you why that's a good news story. Because people say, oh, if you have a delinquent tenant, they're going to sit forever and not pay rent in your property. Whereas less than 1% generally do that. So your chances are 1 in 100 of picking up a tenant that's going to behave that way. And if you profile them properly upfront, then you're not really going to be in that risk academy. So for me, that's a good news story coming out of the data at the moment. The challenge though remains that we have incredibly high unemployment. And people's income is not increasing at the same rate as their expenses are. You just look from a tenant perspective at things like your electricity increases, your water price increases. Oh my gosh, sewage price increases. These things that people don't even have sewage costs. In some instances, for multi-let properties, sit at 600 rand. For a person renting a two bedroom unit in a block of apartments. Never mind the water on top of that and the electricity on top of that and the refuse removal on top of that. Those sort of price increases erode out affordability for everyone, tenants included. Yeah, absolutely. And it really speaks to the stark reality that tenants and landlords are having to face on the ground, the reality on the ground. Are you finding that landlords are actually having to kind of meet the tenants halfway in terms of the pricing that they've attached to the rentals and finding that they're having to actually rent out below the cost that they probably would have done a few months ago? Absolutely. So we're definitely seeing that in the negative escalations. But we're also seeing that in terms of some, particularly in the more affordable segment of the market where landlords are just not passing on those additional costs at the rate that they are receiving them. So you simply cannot pass on a 600 rand sewage cost to an affordable type unit. So the landlord is just absorbing that cost at the moment. So it's not seen only in the negative rental escalation. It's also seeing in the amount of costs, expenses that landlords are absorbing on behalf of their tenants. Oh, goodness. Wow, that is really quite interesting and such a stark reality that landlords are having to face at this particular point. Ladies and gentlemen, I see the Chanel Fauré has claimed her prize. A very, very big congratulations to you, Chanel. As you can see, it really does pay to be part of the private property community. So very, very warm congratulations to you, Chanel. Michelle, before we begin to wind things down, if a person is interested in learning a bit more about the vacancy rate, looking at the trends that TPN credit bureau group has managed to put together, how does one get their hands on the report? So there are two places to get the data from us. The first is directly off the website, tpn.co.za, and in there we have the vacancy survey, the rental monitor survey, the commercial monitor survey. All of those reports are freely available. You can just go in and download them. If any of the viewers tonight are keen on understanding suburb specific data, then they can go to our shop, which is shop.tpn.co.za. You can plot your suburb that you're looking at, and you can download a report. Those reports do come at a cost, so they're 28 grand, but they're 14 pages of so much information about the suburb that you may be interested in. Absolutely, and sounds like such a worthwhile investment as well. If you're going to invest in an area or you're looking to stay in an area, then you certainly want to have all of the relevant information to arm yourself with knowledge. So it sounds like a very good investment that a person can make. Thank you so much, Michelle. Thank you very much for joining us this evening. It's been highly informative, and we really have enjoyed having you with us tonight. Amazing so much. Thanks, Hattie. And that brings us to the end of our show, Private Property Family. I hope that you've enjoyed this evening with us. I have certainly enjoyed spending the time with you and learning a great deal. Chanel for a very, very warm congratulations to you. Now, your viewing pleasure does not end there. Please do continue to stay tuned to the farming podcast at 8 p.m. with Balinoku. On that note, my name is Hattie the entrepreneur, and I'm signing out. Thank you.


Welcome back. So, in the last lecture we have been discussing orbital mechanics. So, let us continue from that discussion on orbital mechanics. Let me draw the problem statement that we have a heavenly body quite massive it with mass m dash and an artificial body a satellite or something is moving around it in a predetermined path. Let us say this is the satellite. The satellite let us say is moving with a velocity u like this. The minimum distance of the satellite path from the center of the heavenly body is r min. The distance of the satellite at any instant of time from the heavenly body center is given by r and the angle that it is making at a particular instant with r min is given by theta. The satellite is moving in a plane and we are considering polar coordinate system. So, the plane so that is why we are not considering the z axis. So, essentially the coordinate system is primary focused on r and theta. The velocity is in this direction it will have two components one is u r other is u theta. Now, this is the problem statement. The vehicle is moving because of that first if I look at the forces acting on this vehicle at a particular instance depending on its distance the gravitational force acting on this is this which is the gravitational force acting on this vehicle and this gravitational force is balanced by the motion of this vehicle which is given as m r double dot minus r theta dot square. We had worked out this and we have also shown that the angular momentum of this vehicle is constant because there is no force in the theta direction. So, if there is no force there is no acceleration therefore, there is no rate of change of momentum. So, angular momentum remains constant. So, the angular momentum we have shown is equal to m r square theta dot which is equal to a constant and from here we get an expression for theta dot is equal to h upon m r min square. Now, we put this back into this equation and simplify and rearrange this equation to get an expression for r. So, r here is our intended path which will be in terms of r and theta. So, we get an expression for r that is the path at given instant. So, essentially what is r? r is the distance of the satellite from the center of the 7-Li body at any instance. So, then after we have simplified this we have shown that 1 by r is equal to g m dash m square divided by h square plus 1 upon r min minus g m square m dash m square upon h square cos theta and we had called this equation A. So, this is the equation for our orbit which this satellite is following and we see that this orbit equation is given in terms of the mass of the vehicles and the angular momentum and the minimum distance. Now, last time we had just started discussing the conic sections. We have given the general expression for a conic section which is given as 1 by r equal to 1 upon A 1 minus epsilon square plus epsilon cos theta upon A 1 minus epsilon square and we had called this equation A and B. Now, if I look at equation A and B, remember this we derived from force balance and this is the general equation of conic section. We see that these two expressions are very similar. So, therefore, we can equate the terms that are appearing here directly and then we can now get these values. These are the design parameters which will go into our rocket design. Now, we can get these values. So, looking back at this, first of all epsilon as I have mentioned last time is called extensity is equal to h square upon g m dash m square r mean minus 1. How do we get this? We get this by essentially equating the terms here, but A is also present there. So, I have to get an expression for A also. For that, let us go back to the basic conic sections. So, the conic sections that we have are hyperbola, parabola, ellipse. These are the conic sections that we have. For hyperbola, extensity is greater than 1. For a parabola, extensity is equal to 1 and for an ellipse, extensity is less than 1. These are the basic definitions of conic sections. Now, let me look at a specific case of a hyperbola. Let me draw the path. This is my axis. This is what typically a hyperbola is and this point here is where our big planet is sitting which is mass m dash. This point is called focus of the hyperbola. So, the hyperbola actually is focusing on this or originating from this. At any instant of time, let us say the vehicle is following this hyperbolic path. So, at any instant of time, the distance of this from our focus is r and the angle that it is making with respect to this horizontal is called theta. Now, if I project it back to that definition, then this distance is the minimum path as you can see here. Minimum distance between the focus and the path. So, that is our distance between these two is my r mean according to that picture. Therefore, this is the path that we are following. I will define some more properties. The distance of the focus from my origin is c and the distance between the origin and this minimum. So, distance between this point which is my origin and this point is a. So, this distance is a. Now, there is one more thing that like to point out that from this focus, if I draw a parallel to this lens is a 45 degree line. If I drop a parallel to this actually not 45 degree line it is a given path which is a tangent to the hyperbola. So, from this actually if I drop a tangent to this path. So, drop a line parallel to the tangent to the hyperbola passing through the origin. Then by the way this what is this origin? The origin is the point of intersection between the tangent to this and this. So, this is I am calling it origin it is the point of intersection between this tangent and this tangent. As we can see that this is a tangent to and this is another tangent to the path. So, the point of intersection between these two is my origin and then this is the path. Now, if I draw a parallel passing through the focus to this tangent then the distance between this parallel and the tangent is called b. So, this is the basic geometry of a hyperbola. So, once again here what I have is I have this hyperbolic path I drop I draw tangents to this hyperbolic path this two intersect at this point which is my origin. This is this point is the focus where my heavy plant bigger plant is sitting. How do we get the focus? Focus is the distance between this point which is crossing the horizontal and from this point the minimum distance r min is my focus. So, this is my focus then at any point here on the path or trajectory the distance between the focus and that point is r and the angle it makes from the horizontal is theta. The distance between this point of intersection and the minimum point is a and the distance between this point of intersection and the focus is c. Now, with this now we can define the extensicity epsilon for the hyperbola you can look at any geometry book it gives b square is equal to a square 1 minus epsilon and c is equal to a epsilon. So, if a hyperbolic trajectory is given looking at this from this trajectory we can get b we can get c then we have two equations here with two unknowns a and epsilon. We can solve for this two a and epsilon we can take that and put back into our this equation and now we have 1 by r in terms of the known quantities right. Once we have that then we can go back to this and now we have equations for the and here the unknowns are h square and r min. So, I can solve for h square and r min here and we have now the full solution. So, this is how we use the geometry of a conic section to determine the given mission requirement. This was for a hyperbola I will come back to the hyperbola again I have said at the beginning that the most commonly used orbit is an elliptical orbit. So, next let us look at the geometry of an ellipse. So, we consider an elliptical orbit let us look at the geometry of an ellipse. So, once again the focus is to get this parameters. So, geometry that we are going to discuss is an ellipse. Ellipse we have two axis one is called a major axis other is called a minor axis. So, this is typically the ellipse that we have. Now, this axis is my major axis this axis is my minor axis as we can see that this axis major axis is longer than the minor axis minor axis is shorter then half of the major axis. So, we have now if I look at this as my center then this and this points are my minimum points and this and this points are my maximum points. So, when the satellite is at this point it is at the minimum distance from the center when it is at this point it is at the maximum distance from the center. So, now therefore the major axis is the twice the distance between the maximum distance. So, we call this half we take half of it this half this is called semi major axis as you know that semi means half. So, this is semi major axis then this distance of the semi major axis is a. So, once again what is a? A is the length of semi major axis and this is my minor axis. So, half of it from here to here is my semi minor axis and that length is called b. So, therefore, a is the length of semi major axis semi major axis b is the length of semi minor axis. Now, here all these definitions are with respect to the center of this ellipse the point of intersection between the major and minor axis, but my heavenly body may not be sitting there it is sitting somewhere else it is somewhere else. Let us consider that the heavenly body is somewhere here this is my m bar m dash then from this what we see is that actually it will be little closer here somewhere here m dash then the minimum distance of this body of the artificial satellite from the heavenly body is this much. So, this is my r mean and then at any instead of time this is my r and this is theta. So, once again we have brought back our r and theta etcetera. So, now what we see is that the satellite is moving here this is the minimum distance and the maximum distance is this other end of the major axis. So, minimum distance is when the satellite is at this end of the major axis the location between the satellite and the heavenly body is r mean. So, now we have defined this parameters a b c d etcetera. Now, from the geometry of ellipse one more thing can be very simply obtained if I drop a perpendicular to this it will cut at this point then from the geometry of the ellipse it can be shown that this distance is twice this distance. So, what we see is that this once again the location of this heavenly body is not arbitrary if this is the minimum distance then if I drop a perpendicular from here cutting the path the point where it the perpendicular intersects the path should be at twice the distance from this. So, that is how the location of the heavenly body is determined or in other words our artificial satellite then should be put in such a way that if this is the heavenly body the minimum distance is r mean. So, that when it comes here this distance is twice r mean then it is an elliptic path. Now, this is how we have defined, but for any conic section what we need to do is we have to get an expression for a and epsilon with respect to the conic section definition that we had already discussed. So, next let us find the value of eccentricity and a for an ellipse let us find epsilon and a for our case what is our case that we are talking about a vehicle moving in a conic section we want to find an expression for epsilon and a for that. So, once again go back to our equation a and b what was our equation a equation a was from the force balance is the orbital mechanics equation b was from the definition of conic section. So, if I equate the two there are two terms in both of them if I equate the first term of equation a with the first term of equation b and second term of equation a with second term of equation v I get two relationships. So, this relationships are this we will be getting by equating terms in equation a and b.  So, this is what we are talking m square by h square.  So, what we have done here is as you can notice here a 1 upon epsilon square is this term. So, I have just taken this and put it into this equation taken this term and put it into this equation I get this expression then we simply now here in this equation my epsilon is the only unknown for the time being.  So, we just simplified it got an expression for epsilon in terms of r min and other stuff. Now, we can further simplify it and get an expression correct. Now, we can further simplify it and get the expression that we had already shown that epsilon is equal to a square upon g m dash m square r min minus 1 this is what I had given you last time as the homework. So, this is the derivation of that let me call this equation D. Now, we have shown we have derived an expression for epsilon from here. Now, if I take this expression for epsilon and put it into equation C then we eliminate epsilon and get an expression for a. So, I will continue from here and take equation D which I have just derived and substitute it for epsilon here we get epsilon. So, substituting C into D we get epsilon equal to 1 minus epsilon square upon r min minus 1 then if I further simplify it I get 1 plus epsilon equal to a 1 minus epsilon square I will break into 2 which is 1 minus epsilon 1 plus epsilon. So, this is equal to a 1 minus epsilon 1 plus epsilon divided by r min.   Let me call this equation E these equations are very very important that is why I am marking them with numbers or digits. So, this gives me an expression for a. Now, coming back to this path then this is my a. So, now knowing this I can find out what will be my semi major axis. Taking this now go back to the equation of our conic section which was 1 by r equal to a upon something and a and epsilon function of a and epsilon and theta. So, next so now what we have done is we have derived expression for a and epsilon in terms of the performance parameters or the vehicle locations mass and angular momentum etcetera. Now, let me go back to definition rather the geometric expression for our conic section. So, going back to equation b we can write 1 by r equal to 1 plus epsilon cos theta upon a 1 minus epsilon square.  So, I am just rewriting it now from here then I get an expression for r which is the instantaneous location of my space vehicle which is equal to a 1 minus epsilon square upon 1 plus epsilon cos theta. Now, let us take this and substitute here substitute in equation e then what we get is. So, here I can eliminate a from this. So, if I eliminate a I get an expression for a from here which I put into this equation and simplify.   So, I just write it here let me put it here this is equation f. So, what do we have got here what we have got is the path trajectory as a function of minimum distance and epsilon and of course, cos theta which is the location at that particular point. I like to point out here one thing that this discussion that we are carrying out for conic section is not specific to a specific conic section it is applicable to ellipse hyperbola parabola all right and we have defined of course, for the hyperbola and ellipse how do we define the parameters then we have gone back to the basic definition of conic section and we are working with that. So, this expression is again valid for the basic definition. Now, let us go back remember that I have said something that whether the conic section that we are choosing is going to be a hyperbola or parabola or ellipse depends on the eccentricity epsilon right. So, therefore, this epsilon is an important parameter and depending on the choice of epsilon then we can see that we can form a hyperbola and parabola and ellipse. So, now let us take a little closer look on this part or this concept. So, now what we will do is we consider different values of epsilon and see what kind of sections we get. So, first if epsilon is equal to 0 in this equation if I put epsilon is equal to 0 what happens this is 0 this is 0. So, r is equal to r mean right this implies r is equal to r mean which means that the radius is constant this implies the conic section we are talking about is a circle. So, we have a circular path. So, if we have epsilon equal to 0 we have a circular orbit of radius r mean next if we put epsilon equal to 1 if epsilon is equal to 1 then this is 1 this is 1 right. So, this is 2 upon 1 plus cos theta. So, then my r is equal to r mean 2 upon 1 plus cos theta. Now as theta tends to pi what will this happen when theta is equal to pi this is equal to minus 1. So, then r tends to infinity. So, when theta tends to pi r tends to infinity and that is a parabola. So, this is a parabola. So, initially we have said that for epsilon equal to 1 we have a parabola now we are proving it that as theta tends to pi epsilon r tends to infinity that is a parabola. So, then what is happening if you have a parabolic orbit if r tends to infinity is what that the vehicle is just going away it is not being captured. So, it is fly away. So, it is essentially a fly by condition we do not have an orbit. So, for a parabola then we do not have an orbit. So, the vehicle is moving in a parabolic path it will not be captured in a orbit it will just go away. Next let us look at the hyperbolic path. So, for hyperbola we have considered we have seen that for hyperbola epsilon is greater than 1.   So, therefore this will be greater than 1. So, therefore the denominator here becomes negative which essentially means that we are getting r less than 0. So, what is happening now that the vehicle is going in vehicle is going into the bigger body that we have talked about. So, therefore this is not possible because the path that it is taking is essentially not possible to attend because it has to go into the heavenly body. However for other application if you are not putting a satellite into orbit if you are launching an ICBM this is what we want right. So, the missile has to come back right. So, therefore for an ICBM and all the intended path actually better is to have an hyperbola right. So, therefore this shows that if you have a hyperbolic path it is not possible to get an orbit here for a parabola it will fly by it is it is just going to go away. For the hyperbola it is not possible to go into an orbit, but what we can do is we can reenergize it and take it to another altitude or another path that is a different thing. For example, typically for missions like mission to moon and all you take a hyperbolic trajectory and then go back to the elliptic trajectory after some maneuver, but if you have to do it in single go it would not be captured hyperbola would not be captured. So, therefore hyperbola is something that is not feasible. Then what is happening here in that case in hyperbola is 1 plus epsilon cos theta that is the denominator of the term is less than 0 which essentially makes r less than 0 therefore it is not possible. So, what is happening if I draw a hyperbola this is where it is this is theta. So, what we see is that there is no solution possible for theta greater than certain value for theta greater than 2 pi greater than pi no solution is possible. So, what we have shown now in this lecture today then we have talked about ellipse where the value of epsilon is less than 1 we have talked about circle epsilon equal to 0 this gives a circular orbit. If epsilon equal to 1 this is a parabolic orbit where it is not possible to have an orbit it will fly by if it is a hyperbola again it is not possible because r becomes less than 0. So, it is going to hit the body other solution other possibility only now remaining is epsilon less than 1 and between 0 and 1 which is an elliptic orbit which is possible and that is why typically we consider elliptic orbits for most of our applications. So, we have discussed various trajectories we have discussed the force balance. Let us now take a little step forward and try to get in the velocity increment that we are looking for because if I look at all my equations which have derived so far velocity is not present. We are talking in terms of angular momentum we are talking about in terms of radius etcetera, but by velocity is still not present in any of these equations and velocity is something that we want to have now what we would like to do is get our velocity back in because that is what the rocket designer would like to know how much velocity increment we have to give for that what we do is we look at the energy balance. The trajectory that we had written so far was in terms of the force balance or the conic section now we will write the same expressions in terms of energy balance. So, for that let us look at the energy of the vehicle when it is in the orbit. So, it is called orbital energy this will be the kinetic energy of the vehicle plus potential energy of the vehicle relative to m bar that is the heavenly body. So, therefore, the total energy of the vehicle when it is in the orbit is this kinetic energy plus the potential energy. Now, what is kinetic energy? So, let me call this as E total energy kinetic of the energy of the vehicle is half m is the mass of the vehicle and the velocity square where velocity V is the velocity of the vehicle in that orbit and what is the potential energy? It is coming from law of gravitation right. So, the gravitational energy is the potential energy. So, this is equal to g m bar m upon r that comes from the law of gravity. So, therefore, this is my total energy of the vehicle when it is in the orbit. I would like to point out here that when the vehicle is in the orbit there is no thrust. We have said that you have given impulsive road it has reached somewhere now there is no thrust. So, if there is no thrust then there is no additional energy being added there are forces acting on it, but no energy being added. So, therefore, once it is in the orbit it has no thrust. So, therefore, the energy remains constant. So, in the orbit thrust is 0 therefore, energy is constant. Now, if the energy is constant then first of all I will just simplify it and consider theta equal to 0. What is theta equal to 0 condition in our trajectory? According to the definition this is corresponds to r equal to r mean right according to the trajectory that we have drawn because we are measuring theta from that location. So, theta equal to 0 means when the vehicle is at its minimum distance from the center of the heavenly body. So, consider this case when theta is equal to 0 at that point then if I look at the total energy energy is equal to what? First of all this term here v square we have done earlier that the angular momentum H is equal to m v r right. Therefore, v equal to H upon m r this is the definition of angular momentum m v r. So, v equal to H upon m r agreed.  So, this is r and since we are considering theta equal to 0 by r is equal to r mean.  Let me call this equation H. So, this is another equation that we have got in terms of the no let me take little more time. So, you got an expression for E in terms of R mean. Now, coming back to what we have said here this value is constant E is constant. Now, let us look at this equation H is the angular momentum which we have said at the beginning the previous lecture that H is constant because there is no angular acceleration m is the mass which is constant g is constant m dash is constant and R mean is also constant is given quantity. Therefore, this energy at R mean is equal to the energy that the vehicle will have at any location. Therefore, this is the energy in that orbit and that is why this energy is constant. So, I will slightly modify this equation and write that E is equal to this which is equal to a constant just given by equation H. So, what now we have is a modified equation in terms of the orbital energy. Now, before progressing further we have to now what we will try to do now is combine whatever we have derived so far in terms of our equations and try to simplify. So, that with the minimum number of given quantities we can estimate our requirement, but notice one thing here is that this equation here. Now, contains this v this is the velocity we are looking for which actually appeared here also. So, what I will do now in the next lecture is that we will take this equation combine it with the equations we had derived for various expressions for the conic sections like epsilon etcetera and get a combined equation which will be something that we can directly use for getting the performance parameters in a particular orbit. So, if the orbit is specified we can find out what it will take to attain that orbit. So, what I will do is now I will stop here and we will continue from here in the next lecture. Thank you.