Hi, how's everybody doing today? This is Rich. Here we have a Rich TV live with our very special guest. It is Tony Scalar, the Senior Vice President of Ideonomics. How are you doing today? I am fantastic. How are you today? Very good. Now you're the Senior VP of Investor Relations, correct? Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Very good. Not a small task over here at Ideonomics, as you can imagine. Yeah, I can imagine. I know that it's obviously when you're working with a company of this level in the electric vehicle space, there's going to be a lot of different things that are going to happen. And this is one of the hottest sectors in the world. And you guys have had a lot of success. And there's been a lot of ups and downs in the stock. So we wanted to do a video today and kind of just figure out where everybody's at, where you guys are, and try to identify if this is the time for people to really start position themselves in the company. So I have a couple of questions for you. Let's go through it. Question away. Now, Ideonomics is a global company that assists and facilitates companies with the adoption of commercial electric vehicles for a greener global economy and is a provider of financial services and fintech products. Can you give us a brief rundown about the global electric vehicle industry and the potential for Ideonomics? Sure. Fantastic. Listen, thank you very much. And as your viewers and you have sort of reiterated, the electric vehicle market is getting a lot of attention globally. You know, is it because of this recent pandemic that EV is now getting some further traction because ESG goals are a little bit more forefront? Is it because a lot of folks have looked out their window and thought, wow, the sky is really blue. And I can see the mountains miles and miles and miles and miles away where maybe that wasn't necessarily attainable before. In China, where we have a lot of our revenues and where our business really has accelerated, there are some major cities that have quite a bit of pollution or have had quite a bit of a pollution. And that really was the driving catalyst towards moving to these more greener policies, these blue sky policies, if you will. And putting stimulus and mandates and timelines into place to be able to move to more of an electrificated system. This is where the world inevitably is latching on to. But it's really tough to get there if there isn't an abundance of product on the market and if there isn't a direction. And if you don't have a roadmap, it's going to be really difficult to drive there. And so that's really where Ideonomics comes into play. We're not on the consumer side. We don't sell Teslas to the individual, if you will. But Tesla would be a downstream partner to us if municipalities want a particular package of vehicles that would include some of that. And that has happened before to us. Tesla is a fantastic downstream partner. They have treated us with wonderful respect. And we are very excited to be able to continue to push orders towards them and others as well. So I think that a lot of your viewers probably have seen a lot of narrative in the media regarding electric vehicles. But for the most part, it's really been on the passenger side. It's really been sort of within the consumer market. Different car companies coming to market with different EV. And that's fantastic. That really gets the knowledge into the ecosystem. But at Ideonomics, we're a commercial EV enabler. So if you are a last mile provider of goods and services, and you need to switch your 10,000 last mile vehicles into an electrificated system, how do you do that? It's not just going over to Tesla and buying a particular car and then going in and plugging it in a home. You have to have fleet management tools. And for the most part, that's where Ideonomics has their sales to financing to charge in model. You need to get the best vehicle at the best price for the specs that you need for your business.  And then you need to be able to charge it. And how do you do all of that can be quite confusing for companies to be able to just jump in to this electrificated system. And that's why Ideonomics has seen success globally. Very good. Now what differentiates Ideonomics from electric vehicle companies like Tesla and Workhorse? Sure. So Tesla, again, a great downstream partner as is Volkswagen or Hyundai or Neo. And that's just on the passenger side. So just to take a quick step back, there are four categories that Ideonomics really focuses in on, you know, light vehicles like the passenger vehicle for taxis or municipal fleet purchasing for various different capacities within a municipality or government entity. Light trucks, so those last mile vehicles, the Amazon deliveries, the Alibaba deliveries, if you will, that are happening around the globe, those types of last mile vehicles, whether it's your vegetable trucks, ice trucks, food trucks, something that falls into that category. And then we have more of our heavier trucks, which we've seen to the likes of other folks in the market who are trying to get into sort of that larger long haul vehicle truck. And so we've got great partners in China and the rest of the world that help us bring that to market. And then buses. We've seen some of the other folks in the ecosystem as well playing that bus arena. But tour buses are a really big number for us. Just to use some examples, in China there are over 800,000 tour buses that need to have an electrification process put into place by a particular timeline. That's moved a little bit. It was 2022. Now it's 2023, 2025. But it doesn't matter if you put a pin necessarily in a timeframe. It's a movement. Folks on businesses are migrating towards the EV because it's the right thing to do. And that's what's going to move the needle around the globe to more of a sustainable green blue sky initiatives. So to answer your question, we have four particular categories that we really fall into. And of that, there are different manufacturers. China has the leading economy in electrification and electric vehicle manufacturers. There's over 400 participants. And we don't see that in a lot of other countries. They're very fragmented here in the United States. Some of the hottest companies on the stock market have been in EV. And a lot of them are from China because they've really got a 10-year plus head start on the process, on the manufacturing capabilities, and more importantly, the technology. So as that filters throughout the rest of the world and other car manufacturers start to really permeate into the ecosystem, we're going to see various different other manufacturers come to market. And so we're really excited to offer our services globally to commercial operators. But more importantly, as we get here into the United States, so Ideanomics has recently accelerated its plans to permeate here in the North American markets. And we're doing that through our own brand, through Medici. And I know that's going to be a question later on in the interviews. We'll save that for that time. But I just am bringing about the idea that Ideanomics, we're not a manufacturer. Those are downstream partners to us. We are a commercial electric vehicle enablement platform. Now that actually brings me to my next question. So Ideanomics recently announced a new division, Medici Motorworks. Can you tell us a bit about the new division and what it means for the company? Sure, absolutely. So as we were continuing to grow our business and expand in the Asian region, we'll get to sort of our 51% ownership of Tree Electric in Malaysia, the commercial EV manufacturer there, and what we're doing, bringing different partners from the globe, from definitely China and other different areas to facilitate the Katie manufacturing that we have a particular piece of land, 250 acres that's on our balance sheet, that that process, we have now expanded into the U.S. We were noticing that there are other entrants into the markets, the Nikolas of the world, if you will, the Protaras. And as the North American market started to heat up, we accelerated our plans. So we founded our brand, Medici, and we will choose different partners within the ecosystem in China and other areas in the world. And when we bring them into the United States, we will label them with the Medici brand. And that will be our branding mechanism here in North America. And if you think about it, from a commercial standpoint, a lot of folks don't necessarily see the brand of the vehicle in a commercial setting. They don't notice what the what the moniker on the front of a of a last mile vehicle is. They know that it says Baskin Robbins on the side, or it says Walmart on the side, or it says Costco on the side, but they're not necessarily looking at where the brand of the actual truck is itself. And that's a really important point because commercial operators want to get the best vehicle at the best price with the best financing rate and have the ability to charge it. And that's where ideanomics comes into play. Being able to choose the manufacturer that procures the right type of vehicle for the customer. That's the most important thing. Absolutely. I agree with you 100%. Now, ideanomics has quite an impressive management team. Who are your key people and what value do they bring to the company? Sure. Well, right out of the gate, I think that a lot of folks will recognize Dr. Bruno Wu, who is our chairman, and really quite the visionary. Just to again, to take a little bit of a step back, ideanomics has been through a few different iterations as a business in the last 10 years. And of course, on our board is Mr. Shane McMahon, another very high profile individual here in in North America. And, you know, a few years back when the business was in an iteration of a media business run by Shane McMahon, they brought Bruno Wu in to be able to continue to sell and distribute content, media content within Southeast Asia. But it had that market had been accelerated by other industry participants. And it really seemed like at the time, our company wasn't going to be able to really get the traction that it needed. And Dr. Bruno Wu noticed that and he was able to speak with a lot of the other board members and communicate to shareholders that this wasn't going to be a fruicious business model, but being in fintech assets would have will accelerate the growth for shareholders a lot faster. And we did that. And we took on different, we shed particular media assets and we brought on some fintech assets. And that's how we got in to the electric vehicle market. We were bidding on a contract in the city of Tianjin for a an ABS package, an asset-backed security package of buses. And we were taking a particular technology, fintech technology, based on some blockchain. And I use those air quotes a little loosely, not loosely, but it could have been any secured database at the time or distributed ledger. But blockchain was a great word. And we ended up winning that contract, be able to take certain KPIs from the, from the assets in this case, which were buses, in which case they were electric buses, and taking particular KPIs and attaching them into a secure database to attach to a bond indenture so that that asset would be able to be located wherever the bond was trading, much like what didn't happen during the California housing crisis. Where are the houses? Can you imagine if they could have pinpointed which bond had which portfolio had which bond which carried which mortgage? So we won this contract and it opened up the world of electric vehicles for us. And we were asked to do more and more and more. And Dr. Bruno Wu, the visionary realized that the sales to financing to charging model was what the industry needed to be able to enable commercial EV adoption. And that's very important. What we've seen right now in the market is a tremendous amount of EV activity or new energy vehicle activity, but mostly in the passenger area. The commercial aspect of this adoption is what is going to move the needle. But it's not that easy. You're not just buying one single vehicle and walking into home and plugging it in. You need to have an ecosystem. You need to get the right vehicle with the right financing at the, and be able to charge that in an ecosystem where you were at least prepaying or getting energy at a regular basis. And that's where Adionomics makes money. We take a slice along the value chain at each one of those inflection points. So back to your original question, which was management. Dr. Bruno Wu, who is quite the visionary here and leader in our company, an American citizen who travels back and forth between China and America, various different places in the rest of the globe. He and his wife are quite high profile individuals globally. So that allows us to, in lack of a better term, Bruno is able to kick in a lot of doors and get a lot of meetings with the right folks to be able to make these model known globally. And that's what's driven our business. So board of directors that is quite diverse and has some great management experience. Now Alfred Poore, our CEO, one of the best CEOs that I've ever worked for, has great experience within automotive, was with more credit for quite a long time. And that continues to move to our CFO, Conor McCarthy, understands US GAAP accounting globally. So being able to take different divisions from around the globe and making sure that our accounting structures are into place for US GAAP rules and be able to consolidate that on a quarter by quarter basis.  And then of course we've got others like Keith Byers, our SVP of operations who thought years of experience, not just in homologation, which is being able to bring vehicles for roadworthiness throughout the globe. We've got Kate Lam who is a seasoned veteran in the financial space, being able to understand asset-backed security packages and how to actually get the F in the S to F to C model to make sure that that is flowing for customers because you got to remember where are you going to get your financing from if you want to buy 2,500 electric garbage trucks at $500,000 a truck. I think there were a recent peer group of ours that announced something similar to that. If you're not going to, if your company isn't willing to write a check for a billion plus dollars, well then you're going to need some financing and that is part of our business model. So being able to have the domain expertise in-house, various different management throughout the globe, that's again what makes Ideanomics such a great company. That's great. Now you touched a little bit on it and revenue is key. Sure. We noted Ideanomics reporter revenues of $4.7 million in Q2. Yeah. Do you market expect the same or better revenues in Q3 and Q4? Please, it's great. That's a great question. Obviously something that's been asked of us a lot. I have so much to say about that. One, obviously the global pandemic has slowed down economics across the globe. So what we would have hoped had been our Q1 was our Q2 and we can see that being pushed just a little bit. But no matter what we are seeing quarter over quarter growth for a commercial EV and that is a key point. And there aren't a lot of other companies in our peer group that have seen that type of commercial EV adoption and inevitably being able to book that particular revenue. So I think that that's really important for your viewers to understand we're not a NEO. We're not a Tesla. Both of those are downstream partners to us. And to use that as an analogy last year when we were able to fulfill on order for a ride hailing service in China, we were able to take 5,000 vehicles from Geely. And you can see that in the Bloomberg data. So if it is passenger vehicles, then we've got a NEO or a Tesla or a Geely as a downstream partner. As we go up in the four areas where we concentrate it, there are going to be some of the same partners and there'll be some different partners. But that is a de-risking factor for being able to participate in the investment as it is ideonomics because we're not married to one type of vehicle. We're not married to one manufacturer. And in this industry, technology shifts rapidly. It's a new industry. Just like the cell phone industry 20 plus years ago when Motorola was a king, when Nokia was a king, where are they today? They still have a particular market share, but the point is the technology changes and we have de-risk for our investors by being able to choose the right partner with the right financial terms with the right charging partner. Very good. Now our investors pay a lot of attention to companies' capital structure, like shares outstanding, shares in the flow and how many shares are held by insiders. Could you please give us a capital structure breakdown? Sure. So there are approximately 237 million shares issued in outstanding for ideonomics. Give or take. And from that, Dr. Bruno Wu holds the majority of those shares. It's somewhere within 35 to 45 million. He's got some preferred shares that have some super voting rights, but they convert into commas. They actually come down in the number that they are. So then it moves into Shane McMahon, the second largest shareholder, who holds about eight plus million shares. And these numbers are readily available in our filing. So if investors want to be able to get those actual particular down to the last share, they can definitely whip that up in our recent proxy statement too. So we are actually headed into an AGM and we have been speaking lots about different proposals that shareholders need to vote on. So in this past quarter, the Q2, we were in some of Q3, we were able to clear off quite a bit of debt. So our balance sheet is looking tremendously healthy. And going forward, we're very excited, as is a lot of our peer groups. They've raised capital at higher prices to be able to continue to not only fund their operations, which we have lots of runway for, but more importantly, it's being able to grow inorganically by a creative acquisition. And that's a really salient point. It's always going to be a little bolt-on M&A that we're going to look at doing so that we can grow within an ecosystem that's rapidly changing. We want to give our shareholders the best value and the best chance to be able to have a solid investment for many, many years to come. And to do that, you need to grow. You need to grow by sales and organically. And then you need to be able to do a little bit of that inorganically by M&A and a creative acquisition. So we've made sure that we've got a very healthy balance sheet, that we've got very, very little debt and we're prepared when the market opportunity has arised to be able to take that in-house and make value for shareholders at a faster rate. I like it. Now, IdeaNomics has a very active and liquid market with an average of 5 million shares trading daily. Can investors expect the liquidity to be maintained or increase in the coming months? Well, you know, I often I'm always looking for a crystal ball to to peer into and liquidity is key in any market. It allows and institutions and other investors to be able to get in and out of an investment with not a lot of price differential. It's very attractive to institutions and brokerage houses and family offices. So IdeaNomics, you know, again, you know, the past few years, the entrance into the EV market, some lumpy revenue, if you will, and some hurdles and challenges that we had to be able to push through has shown investors, you know, it's had some volatility in the actual stock price itself. But the liquidity here is really the key. It's an important factor. And so as we continue to go forward and increase quarter over quarter revenues, we are looking to bring on not only more analyst coverage, but more institutions and more ESG funds and more family offices that are looking for the right investment that is going to grow over time. That isn't just a passenger EV play, if you will, more commercially driven, which means that around the globe as more policy regulation and funds become available for commercial adoption, IdeaNomics has a longer runway. What should investors look out for from IdeaNomics in the coming months? Excellent, fantastic. So Q4 is our time to shine. 2020 has been a challenging year at best. You know, having operations around the globe, we have felt different pressure points from this pandemic at different times. Our operations in China obviously got hit at the very beginning when North America was still trying to understand what the outcome was going to be for this particular pandemic. Then of course it hit here in North America, so we've seen, you know, and I'm going to add one more layer in there, our tree electric subsidiary as well in Malaysia, you know, had seen some contraction. So that had pushed things into the future quarters, but fourth quarter for us, we're very excited about because we've had this quarter over quarter growth. So no matter what we're showing our investors that we are capturing revenue in the commercial EV market and growing it at an expansive rate quarter over quarter. So what is fourth quarter going to bring for us? We're very excited on further revenue growth. We're very excited to be able to announce possibly a couple of acquisitions. We'll see if we can make sure that that can happen in this quarter. And then more importantly, I think we're setting ourselves up for fantastic 2021. So we are going to be able to come to market with product that is exciting that is some niche play and some growth here in North America, which we think is outpacing our particular peer group. And why do I say that? Because in the commercial EV adoption space, we have been able to capture revenue again at that quarter over quarter growth versus some of our peers who are still looking for that. Now, there's a lot of investors that are going to be learning about ideonomics all over the world because of this interview. How can investors get in touch with you, Tony? Well, right out of the gate, please come to our website, ideonomics.com. We have a wonderful, wonderful website with great information, whether it's in Meg, whether it's in Tree Electric, whether it's in Medici, whether you want to be able to look at our board of directors or each one of the resumes of our management. You can reach out to me at theIR at ideonomics.com and don't hesitate to call our IR line as well. That number is on our website, so various different places in our social media that you can reach out as well, whether it's Facebook or LinkedIn or whether it's WeChat or whether it is Twitter. We have numerous amounts of ways that we interact with our investor base on a regular basis. And it's been very exciting for ideonomics here within the last six months. We've seen again some volatility in our stock price, but more importantly, we've gained a tremendous amount of new shareholders. And we want to make sure that responsibility is on us. So I know that there's been some negative information in the market, as that is what happens in a free market enterprise. You have to be able to battle some negative and some positive.  You get the information from us and we will walk you through whatever questions that it is, or if there is misinformation that you're seeing in the market, don't hesitate to reach out. We will get you on the phone with myself, with Alfred Poore, with Connor McCarthy, with Kate Lam, Dr. Bruno Halu, if it's necessary, we will make sure that you are getting that proper information because we are just at the beginning of what is going to be an electric vacation revolution that is going to change the way the world sees its pollution levels. I love it. I love everything I'm hearing. Thank you so much for joining us today. We wish you all the best of luck in your future endeavors. We're very excited about ideonomics and the electric vehicle space, kind of like a picks and shovels play for electric vehicles. We talk about it a lot in gold. A lot of people want gold miners, but a lot of companies that did really well when gold was really doing extremely well were the picks and shovel plays company. We're necessarily gold miners, but we're working with the gold miners. You guys kind of look to me like a picks and shovels play for electric vehicles, which is very unique. You don't have to necessarily be a Tesla to be able to capitalize on the booming electric vehicle space. I very much understand that narrative and want to be able to support that, which is why we have our S to F to C model because we do play in that space. But I also just want to add that there are times where we do own our own electric vehicle manufacturers. So in this particular case, Trelective, we are 51% plus owner of a commercial electric vehicle manufacturer in Malaysia. Malaysia, great entrance to all of Southeast Asia. A young brand supported by the local government and the current king. Very much in a growth phase, you can see from not only our social media, but mostly theirs. They've got a great selling program for many of their vehicles. We are very excited to add those treat electric eat bikes and mopeds and scooters into our homologation process as we bring those into North America and look to capture sales at a large treat level. So I don't know, you know, there in Vancouver, if you have particular ride sharing programs here in New York, we have something called Rebel. And Rebel is a ride sharing electric moped. They're all over the city and much like a much like a car to go.  Those types of treats, whether it's rub hub, whether it's grab, whether it is an Uber Eats, if you will, those types of commercial organizations that need to purchase electric e-bikes, electric mopeds, municipalities who are looking for police and other users of small, lightweight electric bikes, these are great, these are great customers for us. So we're fulfilling orders in Southeast Asia and we're looking forward to fulfilling orders here in the United States. So as it pertains here to your picks and shovels, absolutely. We have our F2C model where we sit in the plane and we enable that commercial vehicle. And more importantly, at the right times, we have our own manufacturing facilities to be able to get product to a market that we're not seeing. Wow, so you guys are talking hands and everything. That's impressive. I mean, as it pertains to commercial electrification and electric vehicles, yes. And we haven't even talked about the charging partners yet. You know, when you, one of your previous questions, whether it's workhorse or plug or, you know, in our case in China, some of our great partners, right? China Petro. We, you know, we've got a great partnership with, or three gorges. These are major energy players that are looking to get this energy sold into a commercial space on a regular basis. And that's where another revenue streams comes into play for us. Wow. Well, we're really, really excited to see the story unfold. Congratulations on your success so far. I didn't even get to talk about those battery swapping programs that are gonna, that we're gonna see the electric vehicle ecosystem start to take on and where we fit into that. But we'll leave that for our next time. Yeah.  So anytime there's any big news or anything pertinent to investors, we'd love to be able to invite you back and be able to have this as a platform where we can talk about ideonomics and really enhance the visibility for the company by getting more investors to learn more about the basics of what you guys are doing and be able to break down some of the different things that we talked about today like your financials and what's coming in the future. So thank you so much, Tony, for joining us, the Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for Ideonomics. Have yourselves a great day, everybody. Tony, have yourself a great day and we look forward to seeing you soon. Cheers. Have a great day. Thank you for watching, guys. Have yourselves a great day. This is Rich from Rich to Be Live with Tony Sklar, the Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for Ideonomics. Have a nice day, everybody.


Okay, thank you very much for coming back from the coffee break and This talk is going to be about ensemble generation methods for decadal predictions Before I start I would like to acknowledge the contribution of Camille Marini. She performed all model runs for this study And calculated the singular vector based perturbations This was fast Okay, so a few words why do we have to improve? Existing and sample generation methods. I know there are a lot of things we have to improve in decadal predictions So one more one less does not really matter Okay, so in ensemble predictions by doing them we try to Get a sample of the Evolutions of the climate state and we're aiming to get not just any sample and not just any Evolutions, but we like that this sample to be representative of the uncertainty and So for perfect Ensemble predictions it is expected in other ensemble spread being a representative of their Uncertainty in the forecast So it's expected that the ensemble spread is equal to the error In the ensemble means so this can be evaluated by the spread error ratio So in case this holds a spread equals the mean error then this ratio Should be one in the perfect case in the non-perfect case if the spread is too large or too small We will get the values which are larger than one Well, this are the results for the spread error ratio for sea surface temperature from two Prediction system one me clip based on MPISM model and one from the Met Office. So we see that In the first year or just after the initialization the spread In the initialized timecass seem to be too narrow so under dispersive and Within one year it seems not to grow as fast as the arrow grows while to the end of the prediction Letia 9 for instance the spread gets Over dispersed Well, one of the reasons why do we get the narrow spread just after initialization is maybe because we don't really represent the full range of Uncertainties in initial conditions For instance many decadal prediction studies. They use the assumption of perfect ocean initial condition. So they use different sorts of Atmospheric perturbations to generate an ensemble Well, for instance me clip System uses atmospheric and oceanic leg initialization by but lagging the ocean state by one or two days does not really Make good perturbation to the ocean state. Well, some studies for instance in this column in the middle one The authors by the way, this is Ho and colleagues from 2003 paper, so they use To represent the model uncertainty rather than initial condition uncertainty using the perturbed physics methods and Sometimes the decadal prediction studies the use some sort of the use the sea surface temperature perturbation So as we see I don't really know whether all prediction system Used to be Underspersive at the beginning of the forecast, but I assume those who use atmospheric perturbations. They are So this has been a problem, I guess Assuming Perfect initial conditions While our knowledge about the ocean state is quite uncertain on the other hand and this a good use that ocean The methods of perturbing the ocean state exist and For instance the studies done at all tipamon They showed that perturbing the ocean state affects the variability and thereby this can also influence the Predictability scales Well different ensemble generation method exists and those for instance that aim to represent the fastest growing errors the subred vectors or singular vectors and Ensemble generation methods that they use to indicate the prediction They built a lot on the knowledge and experience of numerical weather prediction community and a seasonal forecasting community The other methods which are not necessarily Account for representing fastest growing errors. They are investigating. They've been investigated now inspects project and the meekly project Well, oceanic singular vector based method was picked for this study and The whole setup was inspired by the study of Molteni And colleagues from 1996 although we had to use some modification of the method because we don't really have the linearized version And the adjoint of the model So the lean model was used the first step was to reduce the degrees of freedom by Applying the Be varied three-dimensional empirical orthogonal function analysis to the temperature and salinity anomalies from the historical run so 28 principle components that picked that to explain 68 percent of variance then assuming that the Evolution of the dynamics of the state vector is linear and driven by the white noise We can Estimates the linear propagator be Based on their covariance matrices of the state vector. This approach was introduced Yesterday, I guess by Matt Newman Well as soon as we have this be Metrics to this mapping We have we can select further them Norma under which we assume the errors will amplify in the system will lead to the maximum growth and the Time of which they should amplify five years in this case and then we can calculate the singular vectors They would represent the eigenvectors of this product here well at this stage with Decided to proceed with the four singular vectors in order to have eight ensemble members for our initialized hindcuffs And just before implementing this perturbations to the forecasts We use the pace space rotation and scaling In order this oceanic perturbations Being representative of the uncertainty in initial conditions. So there should represent the root means fair arrow of the gecko to Ocean synthesis which is used as a source of ocean initial conditions. Yeah Before Performing initialized hindcuffs to their gecko to anomalies were introduced to the NPI SM model by nudging then the initialized hindcuffs were started by from 1991 to 2006 every year so each for each Starting date we have two sets of hindcuffs every set has nine ensemble members eight Pitcher and one unperturbed which is similar in two sets of hindcuffs Well the hindcuffs which are based on atmospheric perturbation. They have different states So this is the atmospheric state which is shifted by one to eight dates from the unperturbed state They use the same ocean initial conditions and their hindcuffs based on oceanic perturbations They have the same atmospheric state and different oceanic states well before starting our hindcuffs we can do a quick check if our initial perturbations they represent The uncertainty in initial conditions so we compare the spread of initial perturbations with respect to the root mean square error of gecko and In principle so this patterns they should correspond and the amplitude should be should correspond But we see it's not always the fact for instance the temperature at 150 meter depths So the spread is much smaller than the arrow Some features are represented in the North Atlantic and something in the equatorial Pacific It's a little bit better for the salinity at 150 meter depths for instance Some features are represented in the Pacific Ocean also a little bit in the Atlantic and Then for the thousand meter depths for temperature. I think the spread is well represented in comparison with 150 meter level and it's quite encouraging that we get a relevant spread in the North Atlantic because we heard today and yesterday that The mechanisms for initialized hindcuffs they are Associated with North Atlantic processes Well, this might not look optimal but we go with this patterns because and we are happy to have them because we use only four singular vectors and this is already amazing that they represent at least some Initial condition uncertainty Then we perform the hindcuffs and we want to know to know if for this singular vector perturbations they Amplify in our system if they grow because this is a non-linear dynamical model and in order to Understand that we calculate the amplification factor. So it's based on the ratio of the norm of Evolved perturbation with respect to the initial perturbation. So this would give us the dashed line the blue one here But say does not tell us anything about how a singular vector based perturbation evolve So this is a total error growth in the hindcuffs in order to see how What is the contribution of oceanic singular vectors? We have to? Project the evolved perturbation on the singular vector space So this is this formula here and then we get this solid blue line the difference between these blue lines is this associated with Atmospheric weather noise and its effect on the air in the ocean the similar Arrow grows was calculated for the atmospheric lacked initialized hunkers. So they are started As human a perfect ocean initial conditions that the air start growing was in the first year very fast They're faster than this the singular vector based perturbations And so what this graph is supposed to show us is that so much in terms of spread so this red Shaded area shows us that so much in terms of spread we can get from using as much atmospheric perturbations And then this blue area shows us How much on top we can gain from using oceanic perturbations? We want to evaluate now our spread and we use for this ensemble spreads This is the same spread error ratio It's just called differently. So this evaluates the reliability of the spread with respect to error and then we use the better score, this is Kind of a summary statistics for the telegram diagram. It shows reliability of the spread with respect to the observer ability The perfect value for the better score is zero for the ensemble spreads for is one and everything Which is below the perfect line? Suggest underestimated spread so we see that in fact using oceanic perturbations also gives us underestimated spread This is for the subsurface ocean temperature Average to over 300 meters and we use the EN3 data as the verification Data set which is not quite usual for the K-doll prediction studies But we use it because our root mean square errors is calculated with respect to this data set I've also looked into the spread score for the sea surface temperature so this is consistent with a Slide that I showed you at the beginning that the spread is underestimated when using atmospheric perturbation The spread is better when using singular vectors. This is suggested by this white areas here. The spread is overestimated in Tropical Atlantic and underestimated slightly in the equatorial Pacific The spread is somehow always overestimated over the poles No matter oceanic perturbations or atmospheric perturbations are used and then to the lead here five I see that Somehow our shening perturbation they kind of overdue a little bit with the spread they produce over dispersive spread Well, this is a very kind of we Found out that using different verification data sets We produce we get different results for the same variable and the same hindcasse and the same lead here. And so the spread error ratio shows us the better Spread for oceanic singular vector based perturbations and this is a very democratic results depending on which Relationship have you built to our singular vectors? You can choose one or another But so I will go with the Reynolds data sets Because it shows the better spread for singular vectors to justify that We took a search Verification data set which is based on satellite microwave radiometer. This I'm the e data set and it shows us that Actually, the hard is esteem might under represent the inter-annual variability and this is shown by this ratio here So it's a biofactor of two sometimes four in the southern ocean in the subtropical gyus while Reynolds SSD seems to be more close to this satellite data while also underestimate inter-annual variability slightly in terms of skill there is Not much difference in the lead year one well oceanic singular vector based hindcasse they slightly do better than Those which use atmospheric perturbations, it's five percent more of errors that get improvement and The difference is seven percent more for the lead year five, but it's when we look on the global picture We can of course zoom into the Atlantic and see that it's actually better for Europe and for the Atlantic surface air temperature using oceanic perturbations So this is one more time just a summary for the North Atlantic surface air temperature skills. So this is This blue line suggests that better skill for starting a little bit for the lead year three than four and five So that's it Thank you for your attention and I will be happy to answer your questions