Good afternoon. I'd like to warmly welcome the online audience to the session on New vision for job creation part of the World Economic Forum's jobs reset summit I'm Jennifer Shanker editor-in-chief of the innovator a global publication about digital transformation We learned this morning with the release of the forum's job report that Automation is proceeding at a pace even faster than anticipated and that unemployment in developed economies is projected to rise from 5.4% at the start of this year to 12.6% by the end of the year Even as there continues to be growth in the so-called jobs of the future We are going to be discussing what can be done Urgently to invest in future job creation and Support transitions to the jobs of the future We have four experts on our panel. We have Nicholas Marcecal chief executive officer of Gruppo Magnus Michael Pritos chief executive officer of Fathom in Australia and Hamun Actiari CEO of future fit AI in Canada I'd like to kick off our discussion with you Nicholas. How is your company dealing with workers during the pandemic? Yeah, thank you, Jennifer and thank you all Very glad to be here with you and share some of our insights in what we've done and the situation we faced in Latin America, we face very dire situation with unemployment, which was even above 8% last year and growing and also with a Very slow economy. So the situation is also more tense There's lack of inclusiveness lack of growth underutilization Decreasing work out quality a growing formal economy and inequalities in in access to work and work that quality and income inequality So with all these situations in in our part of our sale as we participate in the economy as a company We we set out a plan to see how can we work? This out so instead of backing out and cutting jobs Jennifer What we've really done is look follow the workforce principles many of them from from the web Which relates the first part of this planning we set up a 2025 plan and we started this in the month of August One could say how can you be planning when you cannot know what's going to happen next week or even tomorrow? However, we have to reshape that plan a couple of times and we saw great opportunities Not only in our Mexico market, but also in the US and also in Latin America So we set out a time to see how can we grow our business in different markets and grow our business in different parts of the value chain We're developers of infrastructure and real estate and we saw opportunities not only for participating with our suppliers Which we were very hard hit with the situation jobs were closed for two months So we set out a plan also with civil society and other non-for-profits to help us The most needed construction workers, so we provide the support In terms of a short term support for their basic needs that that was an entering Effect and what we saw is we needed to create jobs by also creating more more Works and more projects so we touched also with the government and provided some alternatives of new schemes of new projects So we pushed on the public-private partnerships and the government in particular in Mexico Launched a new infrastructure a program. So that helped in the macro sense To also have more projects. The other thing we Worked a lot Jennifer and communication and these are very tough times Psychologically because some people have lost their jobs Even if they remain with their jobs in Mernos, their partners or spouses might have lost their jobs So we provided some support and also some programs with a foundation called foundation paraguay, which provides also some schemes of Other family members who could develop some interim type of jobs. So that also helped We focused a lot on the employment experience How are they dealing with working from home and also some of our colleagues which work in Work centers namely hospitals and two of our hospitals have been devoted to COVID So it was also a very tough situation. So we've also been very much in touch with them also in toll roads They deal a lot with the with the public and we've been able to maintain many of those those toll road road jobs We've done some Automation in the toll collection, but we've been dealing with having both parts also maintaining some of the toll road operators So we've designed our work both Still having those jobs for the communities in the toll roads Which are low income and also providing some technology. So we've been able to balance Jennifer some part of the short term concerns and the longer term concerns Creating new jobs. We started new ventures. For instance in our hospitals Hospital hospital information systems. So we have developed that part But also we provide some other types of services which require more jobs namely Amines the part of the the the restaurants and also food for the For for the patients and also some maintenance work So we've been able to maintain some more of the traditional jobs and some more of the high tech jobs That's part of what we've been doing with this handling the pandemic Jennifer Thank you so much for that comprehensive view of How you are handling both short term like emergency measures with long-term planning and how you're working with the government I think that's a perfect Such way to our next speaker. I'd like to introduce Carlos Alexandre da Costa deputy minister for productivity employment and competitiveness in Brazil's ministry of economy and Co-chair of closing the skills gap accelerator a program launched in Davos 2020 under the forums Shaping the future of the new economy and society platform Welcome deputy minister um a Just released world economic forum if so survey of more than 12,000 working adults in 27 countries Found that more than half are concerned about losing their jobs in the next 12 months, but Currently only 21 percent of businesses Report being able to make use of public funds to support their employees through the transition process According to the forums jobs report, which was released this morning What in your view? should government be doing to Ensure that workers remain employable during these difficult economic times and what areas In your opinion need investment in order to create jobs Jennifer, uh, thank you very much for a question. Thank you very much for For conducting this this meeting Let me just give you a little bit a glimpse of what we have done during the pandemic because right now Brazil is recovering very fast For instance, our industrial production in Brazil Accumulated from January to September is already has already reached the same level of the last of the same period last year And in the ad we are growing two digits in comparison to the same month of last year We are already growing But there were two things that we have done during the pandemic which have worked really well First we have created an emergency benefit Which is equivalent to an employment insurance for those companies that decided to Suspend their job program that the the the job of their workers So instead of the government paying employment insurance The government would keep their employees and government would pay up to the ceiling of the unemployment insurance Right now 15 million Brazilians are under this program And which ends right now this month and there is the commitment of the company To keep these jobs for the same period of time that the the employees received the insurance during this time So this has helped companies to maintain their workers And in such a way the recovery process is much faster because they don't need to Hire and retrain and induce the employees to do to these companies The second thing is a huge credit program, especially for small and medium-sized businesses It's the largest program we've ever ever had here in brazil right now We are already reaching 25 billion dollars which have been conceded to companies in three months In credit that will be repaid during three years Uh, and this is in including companies in the financial markets 60 of these companies This is very focused in small companies had never got credit for any kind of financial institution before And right now they are building their credit history. So this is also an institutional advance for our economy So with money to recover the production with the employees cap, we are resuming growth really fast right now And this is the this has been built with the whole private sector, but some problems We already faced before unemployment was High even though it was decreasing it was high before and it was high and it still is high We have uh 12 million unemployed people in brazil we used to have 10 in the beginning of the pandemic now We have 12 and it is high for two main reasons First of all the cost of hiring people in brazil is too high And we know that this it is high also in other developing economies The payroll taxes are high Uh, the the all the bureaucracy of hiring people is stringent And we are working to reduce that in the tax reform that we are implementing right now We need to reduce the cost of hiring people in brazil and also in other economies for the companies Companies need to hire easily their employees. So we are working we are finalizing a package right now to propose to the congress But we are also working with job matching and job skills And then the job skills we are working the world with the world economic forum the job skills accelerator in order to implement a huge program of Skilling people here in brazil and we are working mainly with private sources of funding And and why is that first of all here in brazil? We have the system. I ask a system which has Received some compulsory resources from companies Equivalent to two percent of the payroll We are planning to reduce that but redirect all these resources to a huge job skills Program in the whole country more than eight million people will be trained in $300 program in the next two years here in brazil in different levels with these resources We and this is going to be made with results orientation We're going to do this comparing test groups and control groups To make sure that the employability of those people is much higher than those that do not go through this training program So accountability of these programs is very important in the past We have spent billions of dollars in programs that did not work We need to make sure that the results are going to be obtained And and also in private programs from companies for instance microsoft has just donated yesterday We announced this yesterday five point five million courses Five point five million courses for brazilians free Enough from computer literacy up until artificial intelligence It's in various levels. We are working very closely to companies here to bridge the skills gap It's not a government problem. It's a society problem It's a problem of stakeholder capitalism as the world development development for World economic formalization It's a problem that the whole society needs to get together because government is limited in terms of resources and knowledge about what needs to be done So the private sector needs to work with us several other companies are also donating skills programs to to to this boost that we we are planning and finally We are revised. We have a job matching service here in brazil government service here in brazil Which is really outdated and we managed to have donations from the private sector and right now Microsoft has also donated a transition to a new system with profiling of all of everybody We have 25 million people in this system right now also certification of skills of these people And using artificial intelligence to match the demand and the supply of jobs Right now the we have two great problems in brazil The turnover which is really high last year We have had a growth in employment of one million people But 15 million people have been fired And 16 million people have been hired So this this increases a lot of frictional employment The faster we can make to reduce the period of time people get are in employment to find a job And the more we increase the tenure of people in their jobs by scaling those people We are going to solve the unemployment problem and this will be done is being done right now really fast We are advancing and we are working with the private sector. I think this is key for us stakeholder capitalism in practice and we are really happy to work with the world economic forum in the skills accelerator program Okay, thank you so much deputy minister. I think this is a great transition to our two panelists Michael and hamoon who both run Startup companies that use technologies that are helping people to transition And fit into into what you were just discussing I think both of them argue that we need new approaches and online courses are great They're an important part of the mix, but um more needs to be done to um map The skills that people already have to the new jobs of the future. So maybe Hamoon you can start then michael uh to to to talk about that question Sure. Thank you, jennifer and a pleasure to be here Perhaps just a few highlights of how we're seeing companies and governments take action around this and we've got some Great examples of that on the on the panel here. I think what covet has done in in its Acceleration of the impacts both on people and on jobs Is really pulled that pulled back the curtain on how ready a given company a given government a given region is For needing to go through fast and rapid transitions. Um, the forum also released the Jobs report that today and what it speaks to is what the deputy minister also spoke to Which is new job creation and yet job destruction And so I think the the two elements that are critical in solving for this is one Where do the new jobs come from? And I think one of the things we're seeing significantly is yes, of course There are the sexy tech jobs But there is a group of what we see in the data And describe as the hidden good jobs that often don't nearly get the level of attention They need and deserve but they are from a new job creation perspective significantly Larger pools of opportunities and much more accessible to a larger pool of individuals To to be able to get to so those are opportunities in health care in education In in the likes of for example, even in technology, not just becoming a data scientist But becoming a sales for sales for administrative, for example So I think we've just on the job creation side on the destination of where people are going We've got to expand the set of the possible from only the very very high tech jobs that end up in headlines of reports And then the second thing is we see companies Look at what has happened and realize for years They've talked about reimagining recruiting reimagining learning and development But not having at all touched what has been in the headlines every day around layoffs And so increasingly a shift from we will that's too taboo and we're not going to touch it And we're not going to talk about it to The reality of our new world our significant workforce transition and as nicola spoke to this How can we get creative through a multilever approach of what we think of as integrated rescaling and outscaling? So it's not about protecting a single job because we can't predetermine that but it is about protecting people And helping them land softly wherever they go next Similarly on the government side realizing employment services and the deputy minister And the work his team has led is is really leading example around this of not only saying look This system is not good enough for the new reality of the world But also saying for us to solve this We need to make our data widely accessible and and the deputy minister has an He didn't have a chance to speak to it today But open up apis to data sources to say come come to this data and help us solve for what those transition pathways look like The final thing perhaps i'll i'll finish with is the double-edged sword of ai, right? so Unfortunately most of the discussion ends up being the techno optimist talking about ai will solve the future Let it deal with it and the other side saying ai is going to destroy everything The reality is it can be used on both sides So we can and we see this in working with both companies like royal bank of canada as well as with governments in in europe north america and east asia Is ai can then be used if targeted effectively to think of an ai powered gps for your career So locate where you're starting from in terms of skills and interests Map destinations of where you could go where the sources of new job creation are and then connect you to the learning training Coaching support health and wellness supports you need to make that transition Thank you so much. I'm in michael. I'd like to turn to you Now i'm in in the past when you and i have talked, you know, what what happens quite often is uh And companies look at this and and and uh kind of black and white way and and they they say well You know, we we need to cut people in our accounting department But then we need to go out and find these cyber security experts When in fact, maybe some of the people in the accounting have the skills Uh, the basic skill sets to become cyber security experts if they had a bit of training so how do we how do we sort of make sure that uh companies are not just thinking about laying off people in the old roles but Leverage the skills of the people they already have and help to transition them into new roles And secondly, I'd love for you to talk about how your company's technology You know, basically anticipates how different things like COVID and AI and robotics will will impact Job jobs going forward and maybe give us a glimpse of what you see As the as the road ahead in terms of job creation Great. Well, thank you Jennifer and thank you everybody for the opportunity to take part Um two big questions. I might do the second one first Um, maybe before we get into where the job job to be created. Let's just level set on where we all are So fathoms working with companies and governments in 26 countries on these issues at the moment um, and until january There was an evolving but I think quite Increasingly widespread for you that the future of work is not the end of jobs It's a rapid outscale transition And that's really coming to the piece that you said they're about how accountants become cyber analysts We'll get to that in a second COVID has obviously had a huge impact in terms of how Um companies and governments around the world are tackling this and I think really in three main main forms Firstly, the rush to remote working now This is creating opportunities for companies to deploy technologies to enable remote working But obviously also creating productivity issues But increasingly around the world we're seeing companies bring people back to the office And this is then changing the nature of real estate It's meaning that companies are going about workplace redesign And it means that the way that teams now have been considered is actually different And we've seen a real acceleration In some of the trends the companies have been thinking about over the last few years as they redesign the workplace around the new workforce Secondly the COVID driven recession has led to increasingly often what was seen described as case shaped recoveries Where the future the the outcome of that recession is not the same for every industry So the conventional thinking at the beginning and we heard politicians all over the world say there would be a v-shaped recovery We would go in hard. We'd share jobs. There'd be productivity problems and then we'd come out And that's not actually what we're seeing What we're seeing is that most companies most industries went down Some are staying down and some are coming up depending on the industry and the economy that they're in Technology, health care, pharmaceuticals, professional services A lot of those industries are in ascendance even during the recession They're busy because of the recession Other other industries retail particularly are staying down and probably going to stay down for a while What this means is that when we then think about the recessionary effect in different economies We now got to look at fiscal policy and economic policy in each economy Again, the way that different countries tackle jobs and the way they've tackled stimulus measures has created very different effects in the u.s The first round of stimulus went to the individual worker and this led to a massive drop in the number of jobs In the uk stimulus was applied to companies and this allowed companies to retain workers So we've seen very different effects and unfortunately what that means is a complicating factor If we look at telecoms worldwide in january, you'd have said that telco's worldwide had very similar needs and issues But today for rise in british telecom telephonica and cintel Because of a combination of different recessionary effects in those countries and different economic policies now need different types of of solutions The key message here is that no longer one size fits all We need to really understand what the specific needs of different industries and different economies are and as hamming says That requires good data The third effect that we're seeing is what we're describing as a slingshot So covet 19 has been a slingshot in technology terms to 2023 to 2025 perhaps We think companies deploy things like robotic process automation at a level of scale But no one would have imagined 12 months ago most large companies around the world were experimenting with these technologies Are in now in full deployment And that although it's having an automating effect is also creating new opportunities and now to the second part of your question this transition When we model the effect of these emerging technologies And we model the effect in different industries of the recession And we model what the the exit from that recession looks like we're able to identify the supply and demand for future jobs This means that if we're able to then pinpoint where people are today And where they will be or could be tomorrow we can identify the skills gap We call this the job corridor And the job corridor allows us to identify what skills people need to affect that transition To illustrate this with the example that you kindly gifted me at the in the question accountants and cyber We know that we'll need many many fewer accountants in the future Because things like robotic process automation would take care of a lot of the work that accountants do today We also know there's a global cyber security talent shortage. We know why that is. I don't need to explain it It doesn't make any kind of sense for companies to be shedding accountants And paying all that money to exit those people from the organization and at the same time hiring cyber analysts From an ever smaller pile When it's actually possible to train those accountants to become the cyber analysts Much of the skills of one job assigned to the other the gap is cyber knowledge and that's a trainable gap So increasingly we're seeing companies use the fadden platform to identify What that transfer looks like that that transition that job corridor and to affect it and now not just at the Company level but increasingly often at the national level Super. Thank you so much


Good morning, everyone. Good morning. I'm John Curran. I'm the president and CEO of the American Registry for Internet Numbers. What you know is Aaron. He probably interface with us mostly through things like who is looking up IP numbers and where they are. I'm going to give a presentation about the depletion of the IP version 4 address space and the rollout of IPv6. This is something that I give this talk to a lot of different audiences because it's very timely now. I would say 30 percent of the content, 40 percent of the content goes right over the heads of the audience, so I'm actually very happy to be presenting here because I should be able to get some good questions and some good discussion going. We're going to go 50 minutes. When we get near the end, if it turns out we still have more, we'll go across the way to 114 and do a Q&A session over there.  What we call IP is IP version 4. It was developed with the original Internet in the spring of 78. The ARPANET was actually ARPANET and MillNet were the first two networks that used them. They were built by a company called BoltBoranek and Newman BBN. I served as a CTO of BBN for 1990-98 and it was a company that was involved in doing some of the original protocols. IPv4 took off in a very fast pace. People don't understand. People think about the Internet today being a wild success. The Internet was a wild success in 1992. We already were experiencing 400 and 500 percent growth rates for the first few years of the Internet. The Internet IPv4 address space is 32 bits, which is just over four billion addresses. This is a major problem. In 1992, the IETF, the Internet Engineering Task Force, did some work. They did it under a working group called the AL working group, ALE, address limitation extensions working group. In that working group, we did forecasts of when the IP address space, IPv4, would run out. We came up with somewhere between 2010 and 2017 as the consensus estimate. In 1992, based on the rate of Internet growth over the preceding five years, we already knew the Internet was going to run out of IP addresses in 2010, because it's a 32-bit field. This was something pretty amazing. We knew all the way back then that we had a ticking time bomb in IPv4, and we were going to run out of addresses. Having said that, it's not an easy problem to solve. The Internet was commercializing in 1992 and 1993. The NSF National Science Foundation Network had been replaced with five of the initial five commercial networks. Those were Sprint, MCI, UUNet, PSI, and BBN. When I started working with the Internet, we had a host file, host.txt, still in place, so there was an enumeration of every computer in its IP address. We had just really begun to deploy DNS. Yeah, I'm old, that's right. The fact of the matter is that we were already running into scaling problems. That's what DNS was about. We couldn't keep a central host.txt file updated. In 1993, we did some changes to how we did IP address assignment. What we did is, the first one we did is we adopted variable blocks. Prior to 1993, if you got an address block, you either got what we call now slash 8, slash 16, or slash 24. Back then, it was a class A, class B, or class C. Basically, too big, too big, and too small. We're really the three block sizes. A lot of people needed 500 addresses for their business, and we couldn't give it to them, so we ended up giving them instead 65,000, because it seemed like a good number to give them. So we knew that was a mistake, and we rolled out classless inter-domain routing, CIDR. We introduced the notation that you all love called slash notation, where a network block has its significant bits designated by a slash and the number of bits, and so that allowed us, instead of giving someone a 24, we could give someone a 23, or a 22, which had two class C's or four class C's, and give them the right size block. Even with that change, we realized we were still going to be running out. CIDR made us do a better job of address management, but didn't solve the problem. What did we do? We formed a working group, Task Force, actually, called the IP Next Generation Task Force, IP and G. 13 member panel, I happen to be the official operator member of the panel. We had academic researchers, government, host companies, operating systems, a little bit of everyone, and we looked at six different successor protocols for IP version four, and we had the typical, you know, interwarrior fighting between the groups, and some groups merged, and some groups stole each other's ideas, and we ended up with a short list of two, and then we selected, in 1994, we selected one of them, and it was designated IP version six. We skipped IPv5, guys. IPv5 was a BBN experiment five years earlier. We took the internet protocol number, we couldn't use it. That's why the internet protocol goes from four to six, because version five had already been assigned. IP version six, a fixed 128-bit address field. Okay, so 128 bits, two to 128, 340 trillion, trillion, trillion, also 340 undecillion, if you happen to be into big words that represent a lot of zeros. If you took and you gave IP addresses a certain size, a certain density, and you could pack all of IPv4 into a golf ball, a similar sized sphere packed at the same density of IPv6 addresses would be the size of the sun. Okay, so that's a relative comparison here of two to the 32nd versus two to 128th. We hope to never go through this change again. I have faith, even with the best healthcare technology, I will never go through this change again. So fact of the matter is that we adopted IPv6, and it's similar to v4. All the protocols you know, so HTTP, HTTPS, SSL, it all runs. Everything SMTP, everything runs because it's an IP change. TCP and UDP above that still sit there, still do the same old thing. We just have bigger addresses to deal with. So we adopted this new protocol in 1994 called IP version 6. I will tell you that I'm the guy on record as saying we made a mistake when we chose IPv6 because IPv6 materially has no new features. It is literally very similar to IPv4. We did some cute things. We built in security, which ended up becoming IPsec for IPv4. And we built in auto configuration, which didn't exist in 1994. You all call it DHCP today. So everything we tried to put in 6 to make it unique and valuable, people necessarily said if it's that unique and valuable, let's put it in IP version 4. So we have no carrots to cause people to roll to IPv6. There are some differences. Some people can claim this minor improvements, but materially, it's very, very similar. Having no carrots makes transitioning v6 very difficult. Your only reason to ever move there is because v4 won't work. And the only reason v4 won't work is it's running out of addresses. This means that the demand curve goes from zero to 100% for everyone at the same time. Not a good deployment strategy. And I went on record saying this, and now I'm up here being the one championing it. So you sort of see the irony of that situation. Okay. So summary, 1981 for IPv4, 1999 is when the IPv6 standards were finalized. We actually did do this and get IPv6 through ITF processes, draft proposed, final standard. Look at it. 11 years ago, we got this done. Why? Because we knew we needed to have IPv6 deployed in every host operating system we cared about in order to make a transition even viable. That meant getting this protocol ready and out to host operating system vendors and router vendors probably five years before any customer ever asked about it. 128 bits, a dress format. We all know dotted decimal notation. It's what a v4 address is. Okay. So you've got 128 bits. If you're trying to use dotted decimal notation, well, you'll be here all day. We ended up going with a hexadecimal notation, four character groupings, A through F, and you've got eight four character groupings. So your IPv6 address, 2001 colon 0db8023 colon, it's long. Get used to it. We're going to have long addresses. This actually colon's pretty good and the format's pretty good. Turns out we have one little challenge for those people who are BNF posher guys like I am. It turns out to be challenging to write this in a way that also handles port numbers on the end with a colon. And so people, ITF went one way and the W3C went another and there are ways of doing it. Your local libc, some libraries that will help you. The DNS resolution libraries actually do a pretty good job of this. Okay. So examples of prefix notation work the same. Okay. So we've got V6. It's out there. It's 1999. We want everyone to deploy it, but no one has any reason to deploy it. Okay. Now, fast forward to today. We have allocated 80.8%, 80.08%, as of June 2nd of this year, of the IPv4 address space. Allocated means the IANA, the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority, which is a logical function that holds the free pool, has delegated address blocks to the five regional registries. ARIN is one of those five. APNIC and Asia Pacific, RIPE NCC in Europe. LACNIC, which was originally part of ARIN, we spun that out for Latin America so they could have someone, a group that was more local, had language and cultural issues that would be more responsive. AFRINIC was originally part of ARIN. We spun that out as well. So there's five regional registries. The five RIRs all draw from the same pool. So one bucket, and we all have five straws. You've seen this.  It's that simple. And so we actually have been drawing down at similar rates among the regions. Fairly comparable. I have a slide that shows that. But it's very consistent. We have been going through this address, these addresses, at about, well, I hate to say it, but about five to six percent per year. Well, if we've allocated 80 percent and unallocated is unallocatable, is really what that should say, 13.67 percent. Those are addresses we can't allocate to ISPs and hosting companies, can't allocate to end users, cannot use for general internet connectivity. Why? Well, that's Network 10. You know, RFC 1918 addresses live in this space. For those people who know multicast and anycast addresses, they live in this space. This is the address space we can never get back. It's permanently allocated to other purposes. We're down to 6.25 percent of internet address space. 6.25 is a very small number. Okay? Let me give you an idea of how small it is. If we look at the address space in terms of available IPv4 slash 8, so these are class A equivalents, slash 8 means one 256th of the address pool. Okay?  And March of 2006. You can sort of see the steady drop throughout the year. In March 2010, that last bar, you see 22. Well, I'll tell you, this year in the next quarter, we allocated even more. So we're actually, this number's now 16. Okay? We're going through this year's rate at about twice the previous rate. You can see this trend line, folks. If you follow this trend line out, I will tell you, it's 340 days from now that this hits zero. Okay? 340 days, the central pool runs out of address space. That's pretty close, guys. So, at that point, each RIR has three to six months of space. We'll continue to meet requests from ISPs, hosting companies, end users. The way this works, by the way, is you don't buy IP addresses. You don't rely to your regional registry. You show that you have a need. If you're an ISP, you show you've used 80% of the last block we gave you. And when you've used 80%, you can apply for the next block. We have every ISP and hosting company in the country. Actually, Aaron handles right now, Canada, US, and parts of the Caribbean. They all come back to us every six months to a year and say, we've allocated all these new customers. Can you give us more address space for the next six months to a year worth of customers? Every ISP who has been relying on this for years for their growth is going to get told no starting in about a year and a half. 340 days plus about three to six months of inventory. So every ISP has this essential business demand to have more addresses to connect more customers to their network, and they're all going to start getting told no at the same time. This is wicked cool. So IPv4 demand, if you're curious how it's been allocated among the regions, this gives you RIPE NCC, Latin America, APNIC for Asia Pacific, and it has been fairly evenly divided. We actually have an agreement among the RIRs, the regional internet registries, that none of us will take down more than two slash eight blocks in any three month period. This is necessary because you could have a government show up to an RIR and say we have this huge demand, and the RIR would have to fulfill it, and then would have to turn around and potentially get address space, and we've sort of said anyone could create an unofficial demand that would be hard to audit. We don't want to suddenly see Africa say, oh, we have a need for the address space and take it all at once. So we've already instituted sort of throttling mechanisms so that the run out will be fairly equitable among the regions. Okay, so we've been allocating between eight and 12 slash eights each year nationwide. There are 16 slash eights remaining in the pool. We have allocated so far this year 10 slash eights. We will probably allocate 20 before the year is out. Huh, how's that work? Well, we've allocated 10 so far, so if we allocate another 10, the 16 will drop down to about six, and then that six will last us the first half of next year, so we're going to run out. I don't care who you are or how you do the math, this is pretty simple math. Our demand rate is such that even at eight to 12 slash eights per year, we have two years. If I use the math of our present rate, we have one year. It's going to happen. So we're going to run out. IPv6 is the approved answer. It is already sitting there in your laptop. If you are running a Linux derivative, you have IPv6. If you're running OSX, you have IPv6. If you're running most Windows variants, you have IPv6 and what are you doing here? Sorry. So it's out there. It's actually also supported by the layers above, so Apache knows what an IPv6 address is, IIS knows what an IPv6 address is. This is not inconceivable to turn this on. One little problem. IPv6 is not backwards compatible with IPv4. IPv6 is not backwards compatible with IPv4. Now, you would think the bright engineers at the ITF would have figured out a way to make this backwards compatible. The problem really isn't that we couldn't have done it with v6. We could have, but we would have had to change v4 once in order to make v4 have the backwards compatibility so that we could then roll out v6. It's a lot like if every cell phone in the world could dial seven digits and only seven, not six, not eight. The number shall be seven and seven shall be the number. If you could dial only seven digits and we ran out of numbers and we suddenly introduced 14 digits. Well, the problem really is that, yeah, you could, I could call you because I dial seven zeros and you're seven digits with my new funky 14 digit phone, but you couldn't call me because my 14 digits and someone else's 14 digits may have the same lower seven digits and we overlap. The problem was the existing base of IPv4 machines, it's code guys as tables and buffers and they're all set up for 32 bits and there's no way to generically change that to make it accommodate 32 bits and 128 bits unless we first upgraded v4. And the decision was trying to upgrade v4 is as hard as trying to roll out v6. We'll just roll out v6. This is a interesting design decision that was made in 1994. It is, however, the reality of life.  It's what we have to live with. We really can't keep v4 running. You can do some cool things. We all know what NAT is, Network Address Translation. You can use NAT to do some of your growth. There are ISPs today who use NAT internally and use Network 10 and 182, 168, and all the private numbers for connecting customers. Those customers sometimes run into interesting address conflicts when they use the same numbers for their home and the router attempts to figure out why is 192, 168, 10.7 both on this interface and on this interface. So the reality is that you really can't scale indefinitely with IPv4 NAT. We've got to deploy v6 for the public Internet. IPv6 for the public Internet is going to be necessary if ISPs are going to be keeping growing. We either have to put a banner out that says the Internet is full, go away. Which is tempting, by the way. Or we have to deploy IPv6 on every public server. Every public-facing server needs to get IPv6 addresses put on its current interfaces. Now you guys know this is not new wires, it's not new fiber, it's not new cop. We're literally talking about putting a second address on the same interface. It's laying an address family on top. It's not that hard. I do get people in some presentations who are like, but John, I can't afford two new routers and I can't afford a second set of web servers. No, we're not talking about that. We're talking about adding addresses to your existing devices. We've been allocating IPv6 addresses since 1999. So when this was officially adopted, we started doing the allocations and people can get them. There's policies for service providers, community networks, end-user organizations. You can get your IPv6 address from Aaron, you can get it from your ISP. If you get it from your ISP, it's part of your service. That's pretty cool. So you don't have to pay for it. The bad news is you change ISPs, they'll probably ask you to renumber because you're no longer paying them. If you get it from Aaron, we do charge a fee for administration. Someone has to pay for the who is to keep it running, the DNS and adder service that's with that, all the infrastructure, someone has to pay to get me here to speak, you know, it's the whole thing. So there is a fee to keep Aaron running. We have 3,700 members in the U.S., basically every ISP hosting company, a lot of large enterprises, but you can get your addresses directly from your ISP. If you call up your internet company, and in the case of V6, you call them about six times and you bounce around about ten times, you eventually find the guy and you can say, yeah, I can give you V6, I can turn it on on your router, I can get you an address. It's not inconceivable. This is something that's a priority if you want your web server on the internet to have an end-to-end connection. Now, we all know what an end-to-end connection is, we know how valuable it is. It means your server is talking to the end host and there's no proxy in between or funky gateway operated by some carrier. Okay? That is the default plan, guys. If you don't put a V6 address on your web servers, then the customers connected with V6 will go through a carrier V6 to V4 gateway. We'll dynamically get an IPv4 address out of that carrier gateway and we'll connect to you. Okay? So this is pretty bad. If you care about latency and jitter, you actually want to run Skype, you actually want to do video streaming, the chance of you succeeding with that through a carrier gateway, well, I mean, it might work, but it might work one day and not work the next and then what do you have to do? Well, you have to get that user and Verizon and you on a phone call to talk about Verizon's overloaded carrier gateway. Oh boy. That's a good call. Have fun. Knock yourself out. Okay. So what does this mean? I'm going to handle this from the hardest organization to the easiest. Broadband access providers. Who's a broadband access provider? A lot of people, folks. This is, sure, Telcos who sell internet service to consumers at home, broadband, DSL, cable, like fiber, like that. But it also includes Wi-Fi companies.  Congratulations. You're going to run into the same problem.  So pay attention to this one. Okay. What do we know? I want to talk about Granny. Granny, grandma, grandpa and grandma next door, they access the internet. They pay someone to get to the internet. They pay the cable company or the phone company or they pay someone. And they think they have access to the entire internet. This is true.   I didn't buy a subset of the internet. Okay. This is very important. So ISPs come to us and they say, we want more V4 addresses. Aaron says, that's great. We're now out. It's two years from now. But you can have V6. They go, great. They start connecting customers up with V6. Well, right now about 2% of the internet sites have IPv6 addresses. That means 98% of the internet sites don't have V6 addresses. Something has to connect those customers who have IPv6 addresses to the public internet. Now, I want to be really clear. Granny has an IPv4 address in her living room. It's her broadband access modem that has a V6 address because, well, they're generating 10,000 of them a year and they can't assign V4 to their living room. So there's already one level of mapping in that, sitting in every living room. We all know that. 90% of the people who have broadband have not turned on in their broadband living room. You just get used to it. But the problem now is that when she goes out to the internet, instead of getting a public IPv4 address, because the carrier has assigned one or assigned a pool of IPv4 addresses, now the problem is all those devices are connected with V6.  And when they go to access your website, you're going to go through that gateway. Now, there's no choice. If carriers don't put this in, they can't use V6 addresses. If they can't use V6 addresses, they're not going to grow for long. You can't layer NAT and keep it running very long if you use V4 to V4 NAT. So what happens? You're going to have a lot of management and say, I don't have full internet connectivity. And the telcos, well, they actually are regulated in some things, and Common Carrier is one of them. They'll all get dragged in and get told very loudly by the state public utility commissions fix Granny's internet access. So we know this is going to happen. We know that the job of providing connectivity for you're providing wireless service to a conference, and someone connects up with IPv4, you have to realize the fact that if you don't have enough addresses, you may have a challenge, you may have to assign them a V6 address, and you may have to figure out how to gateway them as well. Now, there is technology for this. Carrier-grade NAT, 6RD, there's a whole bunch of them. It turns out we don't have one transition plan. In their own unique and individual ways. The fact of the matter is that the ITF ignored the transition problem until about five years ago and then realized the Carriers needed this and began working on a lot of technology. So if you go to the ITF web page and you look for IPv6 trans, the working group, you'll see all the drafts. There's a whole bunch of ways to do it. But the point to understand is that if you don't put a V6 access by a gateway in about two or three years as customers come on with V6 public addresses, they'll get dynamically mapped back to V4 and you'll have to suffer the consequences of that latency and delay. So broadband access providers are paying a lot of attention to this.  All you do is provide transit.  Well, you're going to have customers that have IPv6 service because if you're a broadband access company you need to provide V4 and V6. If you're a website, you want to get a V6 address so that you can also serve to those customers end to end. So ISPs are already getting demands for IPv6 service. There's a bunch of ISPs who are really good at this. So NTT, big program, they have IPv6 globally, global crossing as IPv6 globally, Hurricane Electric, little RISP that made its mark on IPv6 service, actually doing very good job. You can go get commercial IPv6 service. And so if you're an ISP, if that's your business, be prepared for business customers calling you up saying, I want not just IPv4, but I want IPv4 and IPv6 on the circuit that I have today. Not hard to do, turn on dual stack on all your routers, run a second routing table. I'm not saying it's trivial, but you know how to do this. It's just a question of picking up your input. Internet content providers, this is the fun category. So if you make a business providing content to the Internet, this change from V4 to V6 is actually very exciting because it's going to put every broadband access company, every carrier in a situation where they're gatewaying customers to you because they're connecting customers with V6 and your websites V4. Well, some of the brighter and larger, brighter folks who provide content to the Internet have realized this is a problem. Why is it a problem? Well, you want to control the user experience and you have no control over what the carrier is going to do. If you can run V6, though, you can get packets all the way to the broadband gateway, you can get them all the way to the customer premise and that might be a better experience. So this is why Google has turned on V6 for the vast majority of V6 on www.google.com. They've put it on v6.google.com. Let me describe that a little bit. If you have an IPv4 and an IPv6 address, you have an A record and a quad A for your DNS for a given name, okay? And you have a customer who thinks he has V4 and V6 connectivity. And the operative word here is thinks. He has V4 and V6. So he has an interface that for some reason thinks it has an IPv4 and IPv6 address. It will use the IPv6 stack. Why? We want to move to V6. It's the right thing to do. Okay. So if a customer has misconfigured IPv6 on his local LAN, because some box is announcing itself as a router and he's going out to the internet right now using IPv4, just like we all are, everything's fine. When someone puts a quad A record for www.foo.com and they put a quad A that says I can be reached via V6, the poor user who thinks he has V6 connectivity now starts syncing packets into a black hole router that can't get them anywhere. So you had connectivity, someone puts a quad A IPv6 record in for a public web server, suddenly that web server is unreachable because the user has broken V6 connectivity. How many broken users have IPv6? How many public users have local broken IPv6 connectivity? 0.1%. It turns out there's a lot of places where you might be getting a V6 address assigned to you that goes to nowhere. A lot of corporate networks have a mistake. They actually have someone turned on and routing V6 with no connectivity. Sometimes vendors help us with this too. There are home gateways and OS is that when acting as a gateway announce themselves as a V6 router even if they can't get anywhere. So the reason Google doesn't put in www.google.com and add an IPv6 quad A record is because 0.1% of the people who tried to access it would run into a problem. Now, does that really matter?  Multiply billions by 0.1%. Yeah, it turns out to be a pretty big problem as it turns out. Now, it's getting better. That used to be 0.5%. It used to be a whole percent five years ago. About 0.5 last year. It's about 0.1% this year. Now, if you look at the IPv6 record for your public web server, recognize some people can't get to you anymore.  Stupid people, but that's okay. They can't get to you anymore. If you look at Aaron's website, you'll find we have a quad AN. You look at a lot of websites, we've put quad AN. This means that some people can't get to us. I'm not saying every business can do this. Google can't. Facebook has v6.facebook.com, but no, they have not put a quad A record on www.facebook.com. Again, 0.1% of a business is pretty big for some people. We're trying to fix broken v6 islands that are out there. If you happen to see that you have a v6 address on your local land and you know you don't have any go fix your router, it's sending router advertisements out and it shouldn't because it's not connected anywhere. It shouldn't be saying it can get anywhere if it can't go anywhere. So this is a pretty hard challenge. You need to put a v6 address out there. You need to be ready for IPv6. Depending on your business, I may tell you you need to be ready but use a different domain name for now. If you're a business that lives and dies on page views, okay, and number of clicks or advertisements served, okay, you might not want to put it in. Or if you put it in, you have to realize you're going to get customer calls. But for the vast majority of people, put it in. If you want to be ready for a very large number of users who are accessing you via v6, you should start preparing now. Enterprise customers. Mail web application servers must be reachable via v6 in addition to v4. Open a dialogue with your ISP that is hard, but we can't tell you to deploy this. This is North America. Canada, US, Caribbean. In other parts of the world, they solve this problem much easier. They tell someone, if you want a business license to be an ISP, you'll turn on v6. If you want a business license in order to be a public content site, you'll turn on v6. There are parts of the world, like South Korea, Singapore, you also have very high v6 deployment. That's not how we run North America. Just really not the way it's being done.  What I will tell you is, you probably need to take your public website and know what happens when you put a v6 address. I have a private website. I actually went out and turned on v6 one day, put the interface on, configured Apache, everything was great. 6am the next morning, my website disappeared. I couldn't find it anymore. Turns out, I had some scripts that I wrote that process log files. A lot of people process log files as it turns out. You want to know where you're being accessed from. You want to know what addresses they are. Turns out I wrote a script that never thought about an IPv6 address being processed, and Pearl is Pearl, and we all know what it does. It does what it wants to do. That's what's going to break guys. It's not Apache, what's going to break is all your scripts that use IP addresses in them. Any configuration file, you've got people out there who have little databases that they've set up where they type in 16 characters. That's going to break. For larger organizations, you've got a help desk system. Remedy, Clarify, RT, Request Tracker. You've set up fields. Oh, a field IP address. Try typing in 40 characters into that field. Someone can't call in and open a problem with IPv6 until you've tested your tools with IPv6. So I highly recommend getting the lab set up two machines, turn on IPv6, run your applications, run your public-facing web server, process your logs, open a ticket, see what it does before you have to do this because someone runs down the hall and screams at you, we need to have IPv6 connectivity. And they will. If you don't have IPv6 turned on, then what's going to happen is that at some point you're going to be streaming video or streaming audio or you're going to be doing Skype or you're going to go to pieces because of the latency and jitter. And then someone's going to tell you to upgrade and you have a choice. You can either do this in advance and be ready or you can be told, this weekend you need to upgrade. Sorry, I don't care. We have a new business partner and they said we're on the old network and I don't know why, but go fix this. Unless you like crash weekend projects upgrading your public infrastructure to v6, this is probably one you want to lay in a little earlier. Software vendors, software vendors. This is actually pretty cool. Here's a demand curve that's going to go from 0 to 100% a year and a half from now and no one knows about it. I was talking to Vaughn, voice on the net, big conference packet networks, et cetera, et cetera. And the folks at Vaughn were like, this is pretty cool. One guy got up and he said, John, you're telling me that some of my customers are going to want to have PBX support for IPv6, SIP over IPv6. And most people don't know about this and they're going to want it because well, they may have new sites connected with v6 only. And if they try to use carrier gateways and SIP, it's not going to work. This is great. I want to tell my marketing team to build this, my product team, build this. He says I want one favor. I'm like, okay, sure, what do you want? He says stop talking about this. I don't want my competitors to know that they need to have IPv6 turned on. If you build hardware or software that speaks to the public internet, you need to pay attention to the fact that you're going to have people asking you for IPv6 about a year from now. Probably not right now, but about a year from now you're going to start seeing the demand. And it is happening. I know the database vendors the other day were beginning to get requests from it. I had one call me up, literally, like what's this v6 thing? And I'm like, oh boy, here's a conversation. So this is going to go from zero to 100% very quickly, and then you're going to have to build a lot of hardware. Guys, if you build, you know, programmable logic arrays and ASICs and like that, you need a year. You should be working on this now. Government, I kind of talked about this. We don't, at Aaron, we don't advocate any public position for this, meaning it's not our job to work with the government and tell them that they should tell everyone to deploy v6. No. But we do work with the government both of them have IPv6 road maps for their own systems. You'll be hearing more about that later on this year. This is actually more important than people think. The reason your routers and firewalls support IPv6 is because in 2005 we did a memorandum with the U.S. government that mandated every U.S. government network had to be IPv6 capable. And in fact in 2008, by June 30th, a number of them turned on IPv6, pinged each other with IPv6 packets and then very quickly turned it back off really quickly. Because a lot of them had routers that worked with v6 but no firewalls. So the fact of the matter is that people were like, well, why bother? Why bother having the federal government do that? U.S. federal government buys $61 billion worth of IT systems and services each year. And in 2005, mandated IPv6 capable networks, a number of major router vendors stood up and said, oh, that's us, right? Okay. Yeah, we'll go do that. And put it into their main code base. The U.S. government is now working on standards for IPv6 for public websites, which should help the load balancer acceleration crowd to get products in place so that if we need these two years from now they're available for commercial people. So we try to prime the pump with the government wherever possible. That's about it. So what if you want to do v6? Well, first you can do it in your lab. You can grab private address space, work with it. You want to do it on the public network, get address space from an ISP or from us. IPv6 connectivity. Native is ideal from your ISP. You can get tunnels. There was a talk earlier this week, very nice, talked about setting up tunnels. You can set up tunnel v6 over v4 so you can get connectivity, make sure your site works, see the implications. Check your operating system, software, network management tool. You're pretty good on the OSs. That stabilized a lot. Ubuntu, Debian had some real issues two years ago that I was busy screaming with people about code trees. We're okay there. Your network management tools are really where you need to pay attention. Rotor firewall and other hardware upgrades. It is possible. Your network management tool. That supports v6. That's in a different license category. All you need to do is send us money. I'm not saying that's not the case. Think about the fact that over the next three years, you're probably going to upgrade it anyway. Just make sure when you replace the silly thing that you get v6 in the replacement. When you're buying a new one, they'll throw it in for free. I guarantee it. Just make sure you get it. You can get v6 on in two years and find out you didn't get it. Resources. www.iron.net slash knowledge slash v4 v6. Again, if you have broken v6 connectivity, you can't get to this, but that's okay. Social media. You can get to it over IPv4. You can get to it over IPv6. But don't have broken v6 connectivity because that will slow you down. Tmarin.net is where we have all the presentations we've done. You can download this presentation. You can give this presentation to someone else. I highly encourage that. www.getipv6.info. We have implementation notes there. It's a wiki. Log on, see what's out there. When someone learns something, they put slide decks or notes up there. If you happen to have some learning, put it up there. We all know how this works. The IP addresses are set by you, i.e., the public community. You don't have to be a member of iron. Anyone can participate in the policy discussion. As we continue to slice and dice the remaining IPv4 address space and fairly allocated out, there's a lot of interest in what policies we use. If you want to know what policies are being used and what changes to policies are being used, www.iron.net slash participate. You can see the policy process. You can participate in iron entirely online. You can see the billing lists. The meetings are all remote cast. You can participate, ask questions online. The full thing. You don't need to go to our exotic meeting locations. That's about all I have. Fellowship program. If you know someone who wants to participate in iron and can't afford it, we actually give out fellowships. I think the fellowship program is open for another three days or four days for the next meeting, but it opens every six months and the program will pay your tuition and it will pay your flight, hotel and meeting expenses to come out. You can get involved in iron even if you can't afford to get involved in iron. And no booth. Don't worry about that. I'll take this down. That's it. Thank you. And questions. Questions here. If you want to follow up with questions across the hall on Capri 114. Yes, question. This is a larger than Y2K. The government's been a little busy with other things recently. The US government. This will end up becoming Y2K, you could test your own systems in the lab and know how you do. In this case, your systems have to speak IPv6 in addition to v4 for customers who are coming on to ISPs you don't know. So we knew when Y2K was. It was probably the only thing we did know when it was going to occur. This is a moving date of uncertain impact that affects everybody globally. So, yeah, it's going to be bigger than Y2K. You'll be hearing about it. There's going to be a lot of business in being an IPv6 consultant. If you want career stability, I will tell you there's no better field to be in. Other questions before I move across. Yes. How long are we going to have to maintain v4 and v6 on the public internet? 5 to 10 years. We won't have people actually connect servers servers with a v6 only address if we can get so much as one IPv4 address to put on that server. But even that's going to run out eventually. So, 5 to 10 years and then what will happen is we'll end up inverting the model. We'll have companies that say, I don't want to do a dual stack.  I've enabled v6 to my desktops because that's the next step, obviously, is you push v6 down to your desktops. At some point, 5 to 10 years from now, you're going to say, I'm done with v4. I'm turning it off. I'm putting a gateway at the edge that will translate my v6 users to v4.  But that, you're not going to have that until 2020, okay? Sure. Oh, so there is something that's going to happen that's very cool with IPv4 addresses. So Aaron's going to start telling people, we don't have any. Yep, we know you need it. You'll get approved. We can see your demand, but we don't have any. It will be possible to transfer addresses. This is an approved policy. From someone who has addresses to someone who needs addresses, where we've approved their need, i.e. there's going to be addresses on eBay at some point. But the only party who can get those addresses is someone who's applied for address space and then turned down, not because they have the need, they've been approved for their need, but we didn't have the addresses to give them. That gives you a chip. I'm qualified to get a slash 21. I'm going on eBay to find it. So I do expect the addresses that are coming off that people don't need will very quickly be sucked up and they still want to use v4. Other questions? Yes, mobile devices. Wow. So as it turns out, this is one of my... I've been dealing with the three and fourth generation network projects. A lot of the mobile devices actually have IPv6 in them. I actually posted on Facebook the other day a picture that looks capable.   It works. There's a lot of devices that support IPv6 Now, about two years ago I met with most of the carriers and most of the standards organizations and I said, the odds of you getting v4 allocations past 2010 is pretty much zero. They know this is coming. I know that Verizon, for example, their LTE, their next generation project, they announced the handsets for their new project. All of them must support v6, must assume that a v6 address is assigned. They optionally can support v4. Optionally, okay? That's going to switch over the next two to three years. Most people will have no idea that's happening, just like you don't know when you're sitting behind a nat right now other than the fact that you see a private address. A lot of people using their cell phone have no idea what IP address they've gotten. They're going to get a v6 one and for now go through a v6 to v4 gateway. Okay, I think we're overdone and have to evacuate the room. I'll go over to Capri 114 for anyone else who has questions. Thank you very much.