This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that is the fan dual podcast network sports betting podcast We're taking a look ahead to week number four of college football and breaking down the best bets on the board with Kelly Stewart My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire comm joined here as always by Ed Fang of the power ink dot com And we are on to week four of college football week three of NFL is up next football season is kind of flying by So how you doing today? I'm doing great, man I'm looking forward to a great week four in college football a lot of big time games against National title contending type teams and looking forward to talking to Kelly Stewart about it And we haven't had a lot of like big high-end games in college football We had you know Auburn, Oregon, but outside of that's been kind of you know barren I guess yeah, exactly I mean we had LSU Texas too, which was a great game But yeah last week wasn't the best, you know, we had Iowa Iowa State, which was fun And one word well for it. Yeah, you know, it was a close game I was we're gonna go to that and cover in this and cover in the past. I was all prepared for this game I had my afternoon set and then it was not playing in the afternoon So I'm mad at the weather more than anything. We'll get to that in a second But we talked we're we're gonna be talking to Kelly Stewart You can find her on Twitter at Kelly in Vegas and she's doing a whole lot of stuff for this fall She's an analyst for Bleacher Reports betting show which you can find live on NFL Sundays You can also find her on wager talk TV talking both the NFL and college football She has a new podcast called the Kelly and Murray show all that stuff and the podcast You can find wherever you get your podcast as well She does a lot of stuff whether it be NFL or college football We're gonna go through week four of college football with Kelly talk about her general betting process where she thinks her strengths lie in betting We're gonna pretty Michigan versus Wisconsin, which I'm excited for we have Auburn versus Texas A&M and then Notre Dame at Georgia some pretty heavy number fire interests in that game on both sides I've got a lot of Notre Dame fans and one big Georgia fan over at number fire So I think they will be very interested in that game as well. So a pretty big week of college football We're gonna have the NFL show coming up tomorrow talking with Brett Colson to review NFL week number three to get that podcast And everyone that we do make sure you subscribe to covering the spread on apple podcasts spotify stitcher the google play store I heart radio wherever you get your podcast you can subscribe and also make sure while you are there You leave a rating and review but before we get to Kelly We got to go through last week's college football show and I have to eat crow about Iowa State Covering the past All right, so at last week on the college football show We were talking about Iowa versus Iowa States and your numbers liked Iowa State You were talking about this spread and I thought that was great. I loved that I got a little greedy and I was like, hey, let's take the Iowa State money line And they covered the spread so point to ed They did not get the money line in Not the most frustrating fashion Yeah, it was pretty good. But it was up there Jim there's there is nothing wrong with taking the money line on this because Um, it was a very lopsided game by the underlying numbers. I'm looking at it here I always say at 7.7 yards per play Uh compared to 4.4, uh for Iowa. I mean that is very lopsided Obviously some turnovers played a big role in this game Right down to the end, you know, Iowa's punting toward to Iowa State And um, you know, the knucklehead Iowa State special teams player runs into his own receiver And uh, you know, they muffed the punt and the game is essentially over so Many many ways Iowa State could have won that game. There should be zero regret on your part for for taking the money line um But you know, I mean the you know, we talked a little bit about the timing of the game I actually enjoyed it because I got to see more of it because I ended up going later In the day got to see the end of it And you know, it was pretty pumped that the the side was never in question to kind of late in that game Um, but obviously I wanted to see Iowa State win this game because you know, they're definitely a team That uh, I'm very high on I'm very high on going into the big 12 um, and Yeah, they couldn't get it done which is disappointing for them But you know, purdy's been excellent this year in the two games that they played. That's what you want to see Uh, you know, the defense is probably pretty good, although I still don't know exactly what I think of Nate Stanley and the Iowa offense So, um, but yeah, you know, I mean, I think I think we were both right on the money there and yeah You know, it's really bad luck to work. That is not the word I would use. I would say frustrated Uh, but it would be would be more so the word frustrated because of the timing because I live in Syracuse So we had people Uh, we were over to watch the Syracuse Clemson game So I didn't get to see the end of the Iowa Iowa State game until later And I saw the manner in which they lost because I saw the score and I was like, oh, it's frustrating and then I saw the manner in which they lost and It there's always been this joke on big 10 twitter about how Kirk ferrants loves to punt to win and somehow He punted to win and it was a combination of everything just like it was so frustrating But I think that you know, Iowa State Both in that game against northern Iowa and the game against Iowa Had the better underlying metrics as you mentioned and could make them a team that we value going forward Because perception could be slanted you go to overtime against an fcs team You lose to at home to a big rival those are things that could weigh things down. So Yeah, but I mean moving forward Moving forward, you just have to love that Brock Purdy threw for nine yards in attempt against a pretty good I mean, I think is a pretty good Iowa defense And he's a sophomore man. Like we talked about him on the heisman show with Edward E. Gross and He's really good. He didn't bother. It hasn't seemed at least so far to bother him to not have hekeem butler David Montgomery. So I like Brock Purdy As an NFL prospect eventually but as a quarterback that we can bet on I still like him despite The result there other things we went through last week when Ed and I were by ourselves We talked to you. Oh you and UCLA and you said you wanted no party UCLA You they proved you're right. Uh, oh my gosh Like have they like our expectations of them have shifted drastically since the start of the year But like I feel like they validate that at every turn Yeah, I mean, I I'm wondering if this is the team that my numbers will just never catch up to this year Are they like the the 2019 luvo base? Exactly. Yeah, exactly I mean, it you know, that team could also be missioning understand for two But let's not let's not talk about that quite yet because I have a little bit more confidence in what those programs have done over the long term under the current coach You know, I talked to someone who follows UCLA pretty closely this week and who's a bit better and and you know, he wasn't quite ready to throw in the towel yet sure, um But I mean you did see the domination of oklahoma and that offense Yeah, it was one of these games where my eight year old was like, yeah, let's let's turn on that oklahoma game They can score Yeah, right Score they did um at will and you know, I mean You know, we know chip kelly is kind of an offensive guru and but really the defense They had so many guys coming back on that side of the ball Right. I mean, they've just been terrible Yeah, and not just against a high powered offense in oklahoma So UCLA is a I would say flagged team. I don't know if that's a term, uh, but like a flag I like it. It's what they are flagged. They are flagged in my mind and an interesting spot with Uh, a washington state program that i'm very intrigued in where their general trajectory is going this week Yeah, for sure. Absolutely. Uh, we also talked ohio state versus indiana and we were talking that game And I was like really play. I really see here was the the over it was 61 points Uh, and it was 51 to 10 at the end of the third quarter No more points were scored. So push which is fun. Um, but ohio state that defensive line I think really showing that it can do whatever it wants to at this point, which is Uh, really fun and that offense is still here to stay. So ohio state a really impressive team so far alabama against south carolina. We didn't have a play here, but uh, south carolina didn't cover. Uh, they were Uh, 26 point underdogs. Hey a cover is a cover good teams win great teams cover south carolina was great on saturday So I think that's uh, all we can say there. So overall ed Good week for you last week with being frightened of ucla and wanting to stay as far away from them as possible And uh wanting i with states I'm very frustrated. I think is what i'll do. So we're gonna talk to kelly here in just one second to get her thoughts On week four But if you want to get in on the action check out the fandall sportsbook and place your first bet today if you lose Fandall will give you a refund of up to 500 dollars in site credit visit sportsbook.fandall.com for more details Terms and conditions apply must be 21 plus and physically present in new jersey or pennsylvania gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler. We're gonna bring in kelly stewart to break down week four of college football You can find her on twitter at kelly in vegas Once again, she's an analyst for bleach reports betting show which is live on nfl sundays She also has wager talk tv and has a new podcast called the kelly and murray show Let's bring in kelly stewart to break down week four of college football Covering the present Let's welcome kelly stewart into covering the spread kelly. I know you have a crazy busy schedule this time of year You've got the show going on over a bleacher report. You're on wager talk tv So a lot of stuff going on. So thank you for taking time out of your schedule to talk to us. How you doing today? I'm doing great. Wednesday is my busy day. So excited to get the day started and uh, talk some college football Absolutely, and it is a pretty fun weekend on tap for college football. We got some big games We'll break that down those in just one second first kelly. I kind of want to dive in To your individual betting process and things you've noticed so far Across the first three weeks of college football because you've seen a lot of stuff happen Have there been any big takeaways for you from those first three weeks? Whether it be individual teams you may be higher on now or more macro things you may have noticed in those weeks Yeah, from a macro perspective the sec has three good teams A bunch of the middle of the road at best the big 12 is really interesting this year Man k-state really surprised me last week against mississippi state the pack 12 though just what we expected It seems like utah and everyone else just as in the acc I don't think anybody's gonna upset glimson. I'd love to see lsu give alabama a run for their money But my biggest surprise team that I was higher on to start the year We'll talk with ed here a little bit about power ratings. I do not do my own I actually do use his as well. Okay was by you And then they really just faltered they threw those two pick sixes against utah and I said, okay I'm going to come back around and here I am for the third week in a row looking to back the cougars.  Obviously the the helicopter spin move by mississippi state was pretty fun What have been your thoughts on k-state so far this year?  I said this is what k-state does they beat up on these little cupcake schools Bowling green. I kind of thought would put up a better fight. I didn't think they'd be shut out Sure enough k-state looked good now I gobbled up the nine sunday afternoon when the line came out against mississippi state because I knew it wouldn't be there And at seven I definitely considered some buyback. This is a k-state team That for lack of better words, I kind of have a ptsd with from bill snider. Okay, bill snider great as an underdog Not so great laying points. He was a very Great coach. I never would say anything bad about the guy, but he was vanilla for lack of better words He didn't keep his foot on the gas and sometimes I didn't feel like he played to win the game I think he played to burn out the clock and hopefully Win the game and so now with chris climbing and company in manhattan life looks really good I'm very surprised to see how much they are letting skylar tomson throw the ball down fields And be able to make some of those bigger time plays where historically we haven't seen From k-state since the mid 90s. So really exciting things going on there I I did bet the over five and a half season win total Mainly that was for my dad and then I piggybacked on top of it because of course if it was to win I'd be mad at and have a little bit extra on myself But you know, he called me to cash that bet out already and I said that breaks Oklahoma state is going to give us a run for their money. Texas. Texas tech is going to be there Baylor is still kind of an unknown to me. Baylor looks good But who have they played I think they'll be tested here over the next couple weeks So I'm excited to see what k-state's future looks like Excellent. So Kelly when it comes to betting on college football What do you view to be your strengths and how do you take advantage of that in looking for games? So as I mentioned, I use several people's power ratings. I use eds Kenny white has always been a mentor of mine from the dawn best days back in 2013 He's always very helpful with those because for me I don't have the time with all the media constraints and doing other things To sit down and be able to build my own power ratings I know that they take a significant amount of time. So I know that the bottom line is the math is the math When you break that part down what I really like to focus on Focus on a situational betting look ahead spots sandwich games, especially overreaction in the marketplace Either due to perceived perception of a team may be an injury And of course how coaches do against the betting line last year pat Fitzgerald was an absolute moneymaker for me And I rolled that the entire year this year BYU starting to get it done and maybe they keep it up and looking for a couple other teams that you know are willing and coaches willing to cover those those large numbers we saw jumbo fisher Pretty much meaningless touchdown against Clemson, but he wanted to make sure he closed it within that number Yeah, absolutely. And so you kind of try to identify teams then for the most part that that you think are undervalued by the markets And then ride those essentially Yeah, absolutely. Listen, there are Every single week and especially early on in the season we do see That the bookmakers put out these lines last week was west virginia was one of my biggest plays because who is maryland I'm sorry. Who is an nc state to be laying seven and a half on the road and in my opinion I'm going listen this line's just a little bit too high west virginia little sprinkle on the money line Again, maryland maryland was putting up monster numbers and here's just little old temple Nobody's paying attention to catching almost a touchdown at home We saw that line plummet and I had to jump on quick before I missed it They also were in my money line parlay and you know, there's an air force team going into colorado That's the those are the kind of things where I'm looking going Okay, who got lucky last week to win or cover Who's maybe uh, we call them fat and sassy over at wager talk and usc fit usc fit that bill New quarterback comes in and they smoke Stanford in the second half of that game All they got to do is beat byu, but the line sent it three and a half four Had to make you wonder those are the type of things i'm looking for each and every week. I like Uh, for lack of better words, I'm greedy. I like that plus money. I want those underdogs That are going to take it to the wire. They're not going to win all the time But as as long as they're in the mix and have a chance to get that plus 240 plus 350 plus even 190 I'm happy to be sitting in that position Yeah, absolutely and especially with maryland. I I'd like to remind people that mike loxley is still their coach No matter how in their first two games and and definitely something Uh, i'm keeping an eye on so kelly you talked a lot about, you know Kind of evaluating teams and early season performance that you know might not be consistent with what we thought preseason Uh, big one with michigan at wisconsin wisconsin is a three and a half point favorite I think it opened up at two and a half and and has moved past that number of three Total of 43 wisconsin has destroyed some teams michigan has struggled. What's your take on this game? So let's actually go all the way back to may where the golden nugget here in las vegas put out their college football games of the year michigan minus five now Initially, I did learn lean towards Wisconsin here the home team trend between these two has won nine of the last 10 of the series and with the short number I'm like, okay. I basically just need wisconsin to win you have jonathan taylor Looks like he's going to be in the heisman form Patterson's numbers for michigan down a little bit from last year Ultimately, I think what we're seeing here is the public perception built into this line michigan fortunate Fortune enough to get out of that game against army now. They're facing another heavy run team in wisconsin But who has wisconsin faced sure their defense looks great, but they haven't really played anybody Um, I would love to bet michigan here, but harbaugh o and six against the spread as an underdog Wolf I can't I can't back harbaugh here and and honestly, I do think that we've seen some overreaction in the spitting line You'd be surprised how many of those college football games of the year Really come down to those earlier numbers versus what the true line is when the game is played Um, this one is going to be a good game and I may get to michigan before the weekend But right now I just haven't sold myself enough and three and a half is a pretty tight spread To think so I think it makes sense if you're not sold one way or another to kind of stay away Let's talk about michigan brawley though because it can apply to them beyond this one too because I think you look at those first two games army is such a unique opponent that I think you could potentially write off When a team struggles in that situation Did that game specifically Were you with michigan or do you think that we're just kind of overreacting to that one game? No, I think we're definitely overreacting to an extent. Listen. This is the same army team versus oklahoma in overtime I mean this army team as you mentioned has done this in other power five schools before This is not something that surprised me. Um, was I surprised on how conservative harbaugh seemed to be in that game? Yes, did I question some of this some of the play calling? Of course Does it concern me about michigan as a whole? And the reason why i'm saying no is because I wasn't as high on michigan as others were to start the year I will say this wisconsin was a team. I was quite a bit lower on I did play them week one versus usf and was shocked at the final score I was a little late to the party and thought man. I'm gonna get burned. This is gonna land on 17 Sure enough never in doubt. Um, but I I think that if I look back at more towards my original numbers This should be closer to a pick-up game and so Again, it's not really To remind yourself what happened last it's more to remind yourself. We're betting numbers here We're not betting teams and on paper Initially wisconsin appears to be the better team and I think it's kind of fraudulent How far would the lineup to move for you to feel good about michigan? Like are we talking like five like wisconsin minus five would that tempt you or would that to move quite a bit? I think if we saw four and a half, I would take four and a half here with with michigan Um, as I mentioned harbaugh not good as an underdog and I kind of don't necessarily think that's a fault to him I think anytime michigan catching points is going to attract the public Obviously and so bookmakers tumtimes whether people want to admit it or not I think like to trap people into some of those games and and that's why I think Harbaugh is underdog Ats record is not as good as maybe it should be All right, let's move on here to auburn at texas a&m texas a&m Three and a half point favorite here and the total is 48 and bonix A bit of a mixed bag to say the least so far for auburn. Yes, that is his bright points obviously But also a lot of lows when you've watched bonix and what you've seen from him through these first three games What has been your overall impression of him as it pertains to this game against texas a&m? So, uh, we touched on all the different things that i'm doing this year and at bleacher report I sit at the caesars foul sports book and I have this giant screen in front of me and my head is on a swivel Especially when I have six morning games going. It's not like at home where I've got my iPad I've got my screen and screen i'm flipping back and forth. So i'm going to be just blatantly honest with you guys I have not watched one auburn game not one Uh, I did catch obviously the ballsy throw on the highlights against oregon And while that did get them the w I kind of questioned either his or guzmals on's decision making there He's completing 75 of his throws. So you have to give him a little leg up here This is tough for me. These are two really, uh What's a good better than mediocre sec teams, right? I don't think they're up there with lsu I don't think they're up there with alabama, but they're right there along with florida, right you get Sometimes you get their best performance at other times. You don't you have really kind of a revenge game here for a lack of better words and I think this is going to be a really good game. But as far as bone nix goes I think you're right.  I mean it does feel like as texas a&m has a little bit of the quarterback advantage here With kellen maund a guy who I didn't really think could throw the football two years ago Uh, really bounced back last year under jimbo fisher. Um, they do have the edge So I think that's an interesting, you know, I mean the quarterback position Obviously is going to play a role and that's what we're seeing in the markets We had this one, uh texas a&m minus three and a half right now a&m did get the backdoor cover against clemson now they're back home here kelly, so Uh, do you think that they have enough juice here to cover against obron? Do you have a leaning a certain way on this game or uh, just too close of a contest for you right now? So it is interesting here now covering as a double-digit underdog on the road In a must prove yourself type of situation is much different than laying numbers at home. Listen as a big 12 girl as Everybody probably already forgot but a&m wasn't the big 12 college station is a tough place to play It is really rough, especially for a true freshman in bow nix um No, just sean corbin for a&m is something That I have to consider as well. These are both really good defenses If you guys are going to make me pick i'm going to lay the points here with a&m Like I said, I haven't got there yet and I do think bow nix Is going to be a great quarterback But again, I just I question his decision-making skills and against the saggy's defense He may falter once or twice Thus giving the haggies a cover, but again, i'm not rushing to the one note about this one Right and we would never make you pick a side, you know, it's more so just like talk to the games like if there's value to to listeners In hearing I don't have enough confidence in this game or I think this is an efficient number It sounds like that's where you're leaning with this one. Is there a number you would like for texas a&m? Uh, it's where you actually would be intrigued or is it just a game that's a total stay away for you I'm looking at this and I made texas it not now by saying I made that means I use some other guys power Reading right now adjusted throughout the course of the season. I always want to be clear on that Uh, I have texas a&m minus two and a half here. Okay, uh, I think at two and a half I would play a&m. I don't think it gets there. I think we're going to see texas a&m money coming in in this spot and Come saturday We may see some buyback from the public on auburn, but I think this is going to be kind of one of those sharp squares type of game That to me I wouldn't be surprised at this game into you know 34 31 one of those type of things and then I and then I lose so for me It's it's it's uh, it's better left untouched. But again, I need to watch that's a bad part I haven't I haven't watched a lot of sec this year because I haven't been involved in a lot of their games right and that's uh This time of year it'll certainly amp up. So let's talk about another sec team here With Notre Dame going to georgia georgia is a 14 point favorite here total is a 58 and a half right now at fandall sportsbook and I want to talk to you broadly about Notre Dame because the last time we saw them play a true title contender They got waxed. It was 30 to 3 by clemson in the playoff last year But it's also important to remember that's a totally different group of players and what they have this year At least for the most part. So I want to talk to you broadly when you see a team like Notre Dame Have That type of a bad performance Does it stick with you in future years when they play tough opponents? Or do you write it off as being different group of kids? Different different game Does that stick with you when you see teams like Notre Dame kind of fall short in a big game like that? So I always tell people as sports betters We need to have short term memories if you try to remember what happened too much of last year or the year before Um, you can get really caught up. You know, I joked about case state and my reluctance to lay points or How they'd fair it against the sec and they won the game outright So I am going to take that out of the question because I've been to several Notre Dame games Most notably the miami game a couple of novembers ago where they just got absolutely smashed in the mouth because that is unfortunately how they fair against Most power five schools. This Notre Dame team is different. Um, I do think That we're going to see Notre Dame put up a good fight And this makes it hard for me because I have yet to see Ian book do anything spectacular against teams not named wake forest, right? And you have kermi smart um And his georgia bulldog team that I think really hasn't been tested. I mean really vandy is the best opponent they've faced So here's a georgia team where lane 13 and a half makes me a little reluctant here and Um, I actually had a stat my buddy Ralph Michaels over at wager talk is so awesome because he puts up all these different things Uh, when both teams are in the top 10 and one is favored by 12 and a half or more The favorite is 13 and two against the spread Initially, I was I was trying to make a case here for the irish I can't do it. You know, I I wanted I want to like the irish in the situation I want to take the double digits in what I think should be a really great game But again until either one of these teams can prove me otherwise I'm not I'm not getting involved interesting Yeah, and is that more go ahead Oh, this is gonna say I mean the tolls at 58 and a half Uh, do you do you like the bad totals or do you have any opinions on this game? We talk mostly about sides in the show. So it's just wondering Yeah, and sides sides are my bread and butter every once in a while. You'll see me play a total Um, and and most of the time that totals in nfl. It's not even in college college totals are always interesting I didn't take a texas tech arizona under the other night woke up about three a.m. To check the score I was like, oh wow, I didn't even have to sweat that one. So every once in a while you get lucky this This is i'm looking at this game going is this going to be 35 21 is is Notre Dame going to come to play and we get over that total because they score a late garbage touchdown And they get the cover. I do think those two things are correlated I do think that if Notre Dame is going to cover this game It's going to go over the total So we were talking before about Notre Dame in Georgia and how You couldn't talk yourself in a Notre Dame. Is that a confidence in Georgia or is it a lack of confidence in Notre Dame? Having you being unable to talk yourself in a Notre Dame here You know, it's a lack of confidence On both teams as I mentioned I'm not so sold that Ian book and his six touchdown passes or by any means the real deal I know he's made No errors so far this year, but this Kirby smart team always intrigues me as I mentioned They haven't really been tested yet. Here we are. We're pretty confident They're going to win the sec east pretty confident. They're going to play Alabama in the sec championship game yet again, maybe get in the college football playoff And I've seen glimpses of that. I like I like Jake from and I'm sure that there's Got to be some remembrance of that game in southman in 2017 when Jake from first started I just I try not to buy in too much of that and and you're right I think my lack of confidence is more my lack of confidence in Notre Dame The only time I've even been against in this year and watched them play was against Louisville I knew that was entirely too many points for them on the road Because they just I'm not sold on Brian Kelly's what I should say as a coach I we talked about coaches that care about covering and coaches that that definitely attempt Um to put up numbers in order to cover games and he's just not one of them. Yeah for sure So before we let you go here Kelly, uh, do you have any other bets on the board that you're like for week four can be Nonpower five It could be a team that you have latched on to like you mentioned, you know buying into teams overall the markets Maybe undervaluing any other bets you see on the board you like for week four Yeah, I'm gonna ride with by you and listen. I know two overtime games in a row This team has got to be gassed But remember these guys something these guys are 23 years old married are starting families These guys are not 19 year old kids. I feel like not only are they better at decision-making? Are they more responsible? Do they take better care of the football? However you want to look at it BYU has kind of been this underlying sleeper team now We're not getting as much value on them against Washington because of the results of beating tennessee And beating usc, but this is a washing team I wasn't sold and I took the 13 and a half with cal and kicked myself all the way to the bank that I didn't Sprinkle any on the money line. I was so mad at myself. So BYU is one of my favorite plays And then I took the seven and a half last week with florida state at virginia because again overreaction To the lion game lands on seven I'm still not sold on florida state and now we're asking florida state to go back to laying points Against the louisville team that I think has some talent against the louisville team that I am not necessarily high on I'm more low on florida state and I've had other guys that do power rating numbers I had florida state sky high all season long and I under you know All summer long going into the season and now they're like well I'm just going to be done with this team because I had such a bad read I'm not I'm going to fade this team and still at least laying points until it stops making me money I think louisville keeps this one close and then I'm kind of teeter tottering between either oklahoma state Um over texas. I I cannot figure out texas for the life of me This is a texas team that gets up big for oklahoma games And uh tom herman as an underdog gotta love it right besides that I'm not sold that this talented texas team is ever going to get over that nine-win hump is ever going to get Uh into the college football playoff and oklahoma state Has showed me on several occasions this year. They have the speed. They have the talent My gundy is gutsy. He makes the right calls and he pushes that envelope So oklahoma state is on my radar. I'm not sure if they can win the game outright, but if it hits Six six and a half. I'm definitely gonna bet it and then I'm looking at kentucky. We touched on mississippi state Mississippi state, you know, we heard uh lots of sec guys talk about well mississippi state Just not as good as we thought they were gonna be because k-state beat them. Well, I kind of agree with them I don't think mississippi state is a team that's going to be that great The uh dan mullen years are gone Their quarterback fits gerild's gone their first string quarterback we still know is kind of a question mark for this week and uh, I just really think kentucky had a shot to win last week could have got it done Fell a little bit short and don't be surprised if they get it done this week in starkville All right, I like that. Thank you very much kelly. I appreciate the insights fun conversation too and uh always Going to lead to a good saturday. I think I want to let you go so you can get off to the countless other obligations that you have Lined up for the rest of the day, but thank you for taking time to talk to us I really appreciate and hopefully we can get you on here again soon. Absolutely. Thank you guys for having me Covering the future One big thank you goes out to kelly stewart for joining us kelly stewart a bleacher reporter for breaking down in wager talk tv and everywhere else for breaking down week four of college football and ed She was talking about betting underdogs in the money line on them and like as a as a better I feel like those are like i'm not going for fun. You know, I want to make money But it's really fun to root for underdogs Uh on the money line. So like if you're just looking for fun, I feel like that's kind of a way to go Yeah, I mean for sure. I don't know. I mean I was I was plenty happy when when Iowa State just covered, you know It's a great way to find joy in life. I think But I think you know in the next couple of weeks, uh, that's Yeah, I think I think there's a lot of value in that, especially like in the last couple years.  I found it so valuable I don't think I'm going to put it out on my public newsletter Yeah, I think But but yeah, I do think there is a lot of value there. Um, I haven't gone back and necessarily quantified it yet But um for sure. I mean over week five five through eight I mean, we're going to see some overrated teams where it's going to be great to get some money on action We talk about overreactions In like a one see a one week sample, but like they can you know Teams can be due for aggression after five weeks after eight weeks, too So, uh, I think that's something to keep out to keep a look out for and Kelly was talking about that too With finding teams that the markets are always undervaluing by you with that week one loss. I mean utah's A defensive line. They're going to cause some problems. So I think it made a lot of sense to buy into by you and uh Getting a little love for pat Fitzgerald always welcome on covering the spread as well We'll dive into our covering the future in just one second But ed and I always preach searching for the best value when betting on gains Well, look no further than the new odds comparison our engineers have developed over at number fire dot com Odds fire is a premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated u.s Market compare odds quickly identify the best value and even examine first party fan dual data in all one place Never settle always get the best odds check out the experience for free now on number fire or at odds fire dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler let's move down to covering the future and One of the games we discussed with kelly ed was Notre Dame against georgia this game down in georgia and georgia 14 point favorites Total there 58 and a half and you want to talk about that one more here. So what do your numbers say about this game? Yeah, I mean, I let's let's kind of think about it qualitatively for a sec I have all the respect in the world for this georgia program I think they're definitively the third best program in the nation behind clemson and albama And i'm even willing to cut them a little bit of a break for the fiasco against texas in the bowl game And maybe they didn't want to play. That's what all the georgia fans tell me at least So, you know, were they a little bit underrated in my preseason database model at fifth? Yeah, for sure But but let's just look at the um, but but I think a spread of georgia by 14 is a big Disrespect to Notre Dame. I think this is clearly a top 10 team They've done nothing in you know only two games to make us think otherwise And we got to think that the numbers are probably underestimating Notre Dame a little bit Remember they started brandon wimbush the first three games. They got a win against michigan Which was a very good win. He hit a couple deep balls in that game that really propelled them But you know really struggled against two not so great opponents after that and then ian book took over and has been very efficient throwing the ball Like their passing numbers were excellent last year doesn't seem like that's let off at all this year So I just think you know 14 This game is all about the number. I think georgia is going to win I think Notre Dame definitely makes it a game and especially at 14 really like Notre Dame plus 14 Um to kind of put that in perspective, you know, I uh, I was thinking like how What's the biggest line I can make for georgia? and we've talked in the preseason about how I took market win totals and um Backed out a rating for each team and so that we could figure out game spreads So this is back in the preseason and when you did that with that market model That was the one that was most optimistic in this game, but even that would have made us a 12 and a half point Favorite for georgia. So I just think 14 is too much. I think it's not giving enough respect for Notre Dame You know, is it is it this whole idea that you know, uh, Clemson cleaned their clock in the playoff last year and that's the last time we saw them play Uh, uh equal caliber team Um, you know, like Kelly was talking about is that playing in the minds of betters? Yeah, maybe So I think there's a little bit of that But but yeah, I think I think, you know, I I don't think this line is going to be state It's going to be at 14 very long. I don't think it's just the Clemson game I think it's like remnants of the mantai teow Like alabama championship game I think that those things are still lingering but like Mantai teow is not at Notre Dame like this is I know that like your numbers will take like a four-year look that game was a lot more than four years ago So I think that I think that we're gonna see Big numbers against Notre Dame against tough opponents because people have those lingering memories Yeah, no, that's fine. I mean that 2012 team shouldn't even been in the national championship game Like they really struggled against the mediocre competition Pretty lucky to go 12-0 got their clocks cleaned by by alabama Um, you know, I mean there's plenty of examples I mean, obviously this was at Notre Dame, but they played george a very tough a couple years ago in jake prom's first game as a starter and Yeah, you know, it's interesting like jay. Have I thought about Plugging my numbers liked Notre Dame's playoff odds. Uh, yeah based on fandom sports book And I went away from it basically because I saw this game Which is still going to be a very tough game Um, but they also go to michigan and they go to stanford. Well, I mean, they're gonna be a big favorite at stanford Unless something drastic happens, right and michigan, you know as we've discussed like hasn't looked great I mean, I'm not I think they're a lot better. I think it's mostly that army game Um, so we'll see what happens against wisconsin But like all of a sudden that playoff picture changed like if they can somehow get a couple of key Turnovers in this game and win it michigan and stanford continue to slide all of a sudden they're looking pretty pretty good Right and the reason that I initially was drawn towards george on this game is because I Personally am a big jake prom guy. I love I love her thing. He does. They don't let him do a whole lot But when they do let him do goes nuts I use a 12.5 adjusted yards per attempt this year He was at 10.1 last year But ian book as he mentioned has carried over what happened last year And it's not just that brandon winbush started at the beginning of the year Ian book got hurt in the middle of the year too. Um, I think right the north western game he got hurts And didn't play a whole lot. He hasn't thrown a ton this year because they've had just two games, but 14.3 adjusted yards per attempt. It's a pretty sick number and he's athletic. You can run a bit too So I think that ian book is a good enough quarterback to keep this game close I personally don't want to touch the number because I don't have a good enough feel on Notre Dame But I understand why your numbers are in a Notre Dame and I think that it makes sense So 14 georgia minus 14, uh ed has Notre Dame plus 14 for this one I won't put you on the record for this But because you know a lot about michigan and it's a big game Any feel for you one way or another on them against wisconsin? I would definitely lean michigan plus three and a half, especially since it's over over the number You know kelly talked about the look ahead line and I looked it up Uh, yeah, I had him at michigan as a 4.7 point favorite Yeah, uh this president So you're trying to tell me that based on two games. We're going to move this line eight points I mean, maybe if wisconsin had played anybody, uh, maybe if michigan actually would have lost the game Um, you know, do I have my concerns about michigan? Sure. I think there there are definitely and you know That's what I do for an hour every thursday. I talk about You know the very the intricacies of this michigan team, uh, which is an excellent exercise for me to kind of combine numbers with With watching film. Um, so yeah, you know, am I going to be shocked that wisconsin if wisconsin covers? No But I mean I like michigan plus three and a half. Yeah, we always adjust Perception of teams after we get data on them But adjusting at eight points in two games is a big swift a big swing for sure From my cover in the future I want to get a number because I think that it's probably not going to last very long And it's a team that you have mentioned that you like ed that's a green bay packers and Initially when I was diving into this I wanted to talk about betting them to win the nfc because I've loved their defense so far They're often to have them look great, but they've also faced the vikings and the bears and they're two really good defenses And they got wins in both those games but When I was looking at the numbers, they're plus 650 to win the nfc at fando sportsbook Which is tied with the cowboys for third in the nfc behind the rams and the saints and The reason that I wanted to bet them to win the nfc was because I want no part of teams facing the chiefs and the patriots and the typical like The afc has the upper tier teams in the nfl right now. So I wanted to stick with the nfc market but I think that when you look at their number there and see that they're 17 to 1 to win the super bowl and see their Plus 650 to win the nfc It's kind of hard for me to justify Betting them just to win the nfc the rams are 10 to 1 to win the super bowl The saints are 14 to 1 and then the cowboys and the eagles are both 15 1 remember the packers had the same nfc odds as the cowboys and their odds are actually shorter to win the nfc Than the eagles are so it wouldn't make a whole lot of sense for me to bet them to win the nfc And I think that the their number to win the super bowl is actually more inefficient 17 to 1 is a number that helps account for the strengths of the nfc And it also gives me a discount on them relative to the cowboys and the eagles So broadly I want to buy the packers the specific numbers at vandal sports book push me towards the super bowl odds at 17 to 1 But they're actually 10 to 1 at william hill right now based on odds fire So I think that if you want to get the packers at this number based on the way their defense has looked You're going to want to do it now the odds of the regulated markets are longest at vandal sports book right now at 17 to 1 again, that's all via odds fire, but If you're some betting somewhere else and your numbers are Good for the nfc like if they are plus 800 cool go there I would totally be I would totally go there because that's my preferred market But if vandal sports book specifically 17 to 1 to win the super bowl not that bad So I'm buying the packers here ed You've seen two games on them now. We liked what we saw on week one We're very happy with that and then they beat the vikings Are you still in on them based on what you've seen so far? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I didn't see the game against minnesota I'm looking at the numbers and it looks like, you know, minnesota had more yards and yards for playing that game Obviously turnovers probably played a role in what went on But yeah, I'm still high on on green bay for sure So Did you mean to tell me that new Orleans has better super bowl odds right now than green bay? Yes Yeah, that It doesn't make sense to me I mean, you have obviously bruises bruises going to be out for a couple weeks now I have no idea what you're going to get from bridgewater and tason hill I think I just saw that chante refuses to announce a starter for this week, which is is very interesting You know, I mean, they'll probably be fine. I mean, I'm more looking to see what kind of regression we get on the defensive side of the ball And Yeah, that that doesn't make sense to me. So yeah, the saints are actually fourth right now behind the patriots cheese and rams For the super bowl. Yeah, and this is I'm looking at this literally right now 322 on a wednesday And they're still there But like the reason that I am confused by that which you are too Is we talked with whalecapper about the importance of the first round buy Are you gonna get a first round buy when you don't drew breeze for six weeks? Probably not But the packers are 2 and 0 against two very respectable opponents Like they might get a first round buy. So I don't know, right? Yeah, I mean, look, I mean the packers probably still have a pretty tough division there. So let's not you know Let's not give them the division just yet. But um I think there's a lot of assumptions going in here, right? Like breeze messed up his thumb He's getting surgery on it.  I think that's uh, you know, I mean you can hope or maybe the maybe the argument is Ah, he'll get some rest for six weeks. Yeah, the old man will actually be able to you know, continue his play In the I don't know. I I just don't I think part of it may be the cam newton injury potentially propping them up Um, the falcons both their first rounds offense alignment are already hurt. Um, wait, is cam out for No, he's not out yet. He didn't practice wednesday, which stinks Because I want to play that game a lot for dfs on sunday and I want to shoot out So I really would like cam to play but It's making me nervous, but he might miss The buccaneers had that awful week one So it may be a lack of confidence in the nfc south, which looked good before the year But like I can't justify I can't come close to justify new Orleans at 14 to 1 Yeah, I mean I I agree with you All right, uh, that is all we have For today so ed before we wrap up for today We're gonna come back tomorrow and preview the nfl week three with breck holson Anything you want to plug over at the football analytics show over at or over at the power rank Yeah, I mean at the power rank, uh, you can get a sample of my best Predictions that I usually say for paying members of the site. Uh, email goes out with those predictions and my analysis Thursday at noon eastern So, uh, it's a good way to kind of see what my numbers are saying and and uh, you know, just I try to put a little context in there So I'm just not leaving you hanging out to dry with a number Uh, so it's a lot of fun. Uh, a lot of people, uh, enjoy getting that little taste and um, yeah So check it out the power rank dot com. Yep, and you can find ed on twitter at the power rank I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at Fan dual podcast don't forget to subscribe to covering the spread on apple podcast spotify Stitcher google play store wherever you get your podcast you can find covering the spread and while you are there leave a rating in review As well big thank you goes out to kelly stewart for swinging on by Breaking down week four of college football and her favorite bets in the board big. Thank you to kelly there Again find her on twitter at kelly in vegas big Thank you to calvin thea ball for keeping us on the air here on the video side of things and shopping things up For the at fan dual twitter account and thank you to those of you who tuned in for today Back at you tomorrow to talk some NFL. We'll get you then this has been covering the spread. You're on the fan dual podcast network