Welcome to NTM Nightly. I am Jesse Leance. This edition's top stories, contacts of the 27th recorded COVID-19 case, test a negative for the novel coronavirus. UNICEF aids the Ministry of Education in providing psychosocial support to young students and the Ireland's Governor-General is the newest member of the Rotary Club of St. Lucia. Investigations into the 27th case of COVID-19 recorded in St. Lucia are continuing by the Ministry of Health and Wellness. Chief Medical Officer Dr Sharon Belmar George says contact tracing is ongoing but thus far, all contacts of the individual that have been tested are negative. On receipt of the notification from the Azure Long Laboratory, the confirmed case was immediately isolated on contact tracing comments. The investigation consisted of interviews, contact tracing, screening and testing as required of all the possible contacts. These contacts included the passengers from the flight, seated in proximity to the case that is two rows in front and two rows to the back, port personnel, taxi driver, the hotel employees and the guests. The tests done in all of the contacts of the visitor thus far are all negative. Investigations and contact tracing by the health team at the hotel on Wednesday, September 9, 2020 has indicated that the transmission risk was low. The adherence by the hotel's management and staff to the recommended protocols resulted in low exposure during the limited period of his stay. On Tuesday, September 8, 2020, St. Lucia recorded the 27th case of COVID-19. The 27-year-old male visitor arrived in St. Lucia on Sunday, September 6, 2020. On the evening of Wednesday, September 9, 2020, he was repatriated to the United States via private airline. Dr. Belmont George reiterates the need for vigilance and compliance with established protocols. As more sectors open and restrictions are reduced, the public is advised as always to take the necessary personal responsibility to protect themselves and family. We continue to increase our surveillance to reduce the risks such as the illegal entry at the borders, breaches to home quarantine, and the non-adherence to protocols. We continue to advise on the maintenance of the standard recommendations for infection prevention and control, which include regular hand washing of soap and water, or alcohol-based hand sanitizers when soap and water may not be available, and to cover your mouth and nose with disposable tissues when coughing and sneezing. We appeal to everyone to continue supporting our national effort to minimize the threat of COVID-19 on our island. St. Lucia has recorded a total of 27 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with zero deaths. A total of 7,391 tests have been conducted to date. The Ministry of Health and Wellness informs the general public that for persons traveling outside of St. Lucia and requiring a PCR test for COVID-19 can access those services at the Grosselay Polyclinic and the Viewfort Wellness Center. Swabbing for the PCR COVID-19 test will be available at the two centers on Monday to Friday from 8am to 4pm. The cost of the PCR test is US$100 or EC$267 to be paid at the Grosselay Polyclinic or the Viewfort Wellness Center. Persons are also advised to walk with a valid form of identification that is your ID card when accessing services at the Grosselay Polyclinic or the Viewfort Wellness Center. It is recommended that persons come in at least three days, that is 72 hours before a scheduled travel date. All persons coming to conduct business at the Grosselay Polyclinic or the Viewfort Wellness Center must wear a mask before entering the facilities. All hands will be sanitized with an alcohol-based solution. The Ministry of Health will continue to take the necessary measures to ensure the health and safety of all staff and patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. For more information, please call the Ministry of Health at 468-5309. The British Virgin Islands, Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago are among countries in the region that are tightening measures to combat the pandemic as cases continue to climb. Here's Michelle Nurse of Caracom Newstime. The British Virgin Islands went into hard lockdown from the 2nd of September until the 16th of September. That means that residents must remain within the confines of their home between a minute after 1 p.m. each day and 5 each morning. The limited hours of movement are for essential trips only, such as purchasing groceries or medicine or taking limited exercise. From the 1st of September, Guyana reverted to its 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. curfew. The curfew for the past couple of weeks was from 5 a.m. to 9 p.m. At this part of measures to ensure strict adherence to COVID-19 protocols, charges will be imposed on individuals who fail to wear a mask in public spaces. Guyana's airports will also remain close to all incoming international flights, with some special exceptions. The measures are to remain in full effect until the 30th of September 2020. Over in Trinidad and Tobago, failure to wear a mask will also attract a penalty. All in-house dining at restaurants and bars, food courts and malls is suspended, and beaches, rivers, gyms and places of worship are closed. The Ministry of Education, Innovation, Gender Relations and Sustainable Development has presented a psychosocial support resources to district counselors supplied by UNICEF. The materials are to support young students who are adversely impacted by various stressors caused by COVID-19. Chief Education Officer Dr. Fiona Philip Meyer officially handed over the materials. The packages that each child will receive is part of a response. It would give them something tangible in terms of a mask, something that they can use, but there are affirmations on those masks. There is a doll, there's a stress doll, there's a ball as well. There are quite a few things in that little package, and all of that is compliments UNICEF and in collaboration with our district education officers and more specifically our district counselors who have been part and parcel of this process. Coordinator of Guidance Counseling, Joyce Lynn Eugene, thank to UNICEF on behalf of all school counselors for partnering with the education sector in St. Lucia in order to direct attention to the younger ones who like adults are attempting to cope with the challenges of COVID-19 particularly on family and school life. I want to appeal to the parents particularly to allow the children some time to play, to you know use the items that are in the bag because it is to help them ease some of their anxieties and some of the concerns that they may have as we have been going through this COVID period. On behalf of the district counselors who are here with me they have been the ones who worked diligently with our primary school students and they together with their district education officers have been planning on how we can alleviate some of the stress that the students would have been going through with the new the transition back into school. So this is also a gesture to assist some of the students with this with this transition. We have school counselors in the secondary school so we have gone through preparing bags for grades one to seven and so some of the students in the lower school will also receive some of the tangible items to assist them. This of course would be one phase of our efforts in helping students settle into the new academic year in a manner that is going to be that will be helpful for them that will relieve some of their tension some of their stress and will allow them to be successful despite some of the challenges that they face during COVID. Coordinator of Guidance Counseling in the Ministry of Education there Joyce Lynn Eugene. Governor General Sir Emanuel Neville Snack has accepted an invitation by the Rotary Club of St. Lucia to become an honorary member. The invitation was made during a call upon the Governor General by Rotary District Governor Lyle Chase along with Assistant Governor Charles Sarrié, District Secretary Soraya Warner Gustav, President Lethan Khan and a Chairperson Everest Jamari. Details in this report. Rotary and Lyle Chase has ascended to the prestigious position of district governor creating history. It is the first time that a St. Lucia is serving as governor for District 7030 which is a grouping of 72 clubs with the membership of more than 2200 spanning 17 territories from St. Kitt's Nevis in the North to French Guiana, Suriname, Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao in the South. Assistant Governor for St. Lucia Charles Sarrié says District Governor Chase has an impressive service record that has brought about change throughout the years. He joined the Rotary Club of St. Lucia in December of 1983 and he was president in the year 1988-1989. In 1992 he felt he should grow a little bit more so he opened another club the Rotary Club of Grosile and he was the first inaugural president and they had a unique distinction in that they allowed women into Rotary with something which the other clubs at the time were not allowing so he's a trailblazer as usual. The recently installed district governor is credited for ensuring the sustainability of Rotary by starting a satellite club for the youth in 2017. Noting the success of Rotary International in eradicating polio in all but two countries of the world Governor Lyle Chase is keen on replicating that health success in the region. A childhood obesity prevention program is at the top of the agenda. Chase explained the importance of the program. Childhood obesity is the genesis of many of our non-communicable diseases, diabetes, hypertension, even things like depression and cancer are rooted in childhood obesity in many cases and in the Caribbean area over 40 to 45 percent of our adolescents are obese and that figure has come from five percent within the last 20 years. St Lucia's Governor General, his Excellency, Sir Emmanuel Neville Snack lauded the Rotary Club for its commitment to community and pledged support to the agenda of district governor Lyle Chase. The work that Rotary is doing cannot be put in a scale with any work that is being done anywhere for Rotary not to take the scale. I'm particularly moved by, apart from everything else, by the plan to take the hundred or so people who have gone astray of the streets. We can refer to them as Christ would himself as an east of our brethren. And I believe it would be one of the greatest jobs that Rotary would have done, post-English. District Governor Lyle Chase has also committed to pursuing peace and literacy during his term. From the Government Information Service, Lyssa Joseph reports in. Up next we have a primus Hutchinson with the NTN Nouvelle Aquial. Cut them loose. The anxieties. The worries. Open up to possibilities. Accept the uncertainties and cut them loose. The bitterness. The hopelessness. Plant a seed of hope in your mind. It will grow and flourish in time. Hold on a little longer. Life encourages you to grow. You have so much to offer. Look, tomorrow is waiting to say hello. Don't give up on yourself. Instead, reach out for help. Perhaps it's time to reach out to someone. Call the Health Helpline 203 toll free anytime to speak to a professional. A message from the Ministry of Health and Wellness. Welcome back. We now join Primus Hutchinson for the NTN Nouvelle Aquial. Primus Hutchinson. Particularly, to business, a lot keep up with a position you've got to keep up with with the others. The principal reason keep up with a gymnasium and then cooperation of the facility, the organizations that keep up with it, is to try and establish projects that will help sector to business. A lot of business keep up with a degree. It's a pretty good business as it's based here. So now director, executive, for cooperation with the seller, Madame Carmen Gomez Trigg, initiative la, que offait garantissement de 75% l'argent pour été à des guéridés 300 000 dollars. 6 millions au jour qui qui a participé en projet, qui a receivé assistance à la des bio-qualifiés. You see a TIG, Dominique Laguignard, Saint Kitts ex-navis, ex-cetlicie. Madame Trigg de qui? Cetlicie, c'est premier pour emboire ses initiatives là, initiatives à la, ex-cetoi au hajard trouvé étreuné pour s'accapable pour offait service là. Je vais directer pour Bac Cetlicie, pour le moment, Monsieur Metford Francis, avouer qu'il manque la salle de guitre à cassement que c'était business payage à expériencer pour présenter diverses garantissements pour s'accalifier pour trouver un loan, et que aussi, comme il y a qu'à continuer pour offrir un banal de corona, ba claka ouai, c'est très important pour aider à expraccé cette business là, à des oppositions pour capable, pour continuer à offrir. Monsieur Francis Dioci, ma guité, ça c'est une grande façon des assistances pour du business. Cut même, c'est faux, c'est un business là, qu'on prône qui, un bas argument ça là, c'est business qu'il qu'a fait pour offrir par plus bas qu'il, des millions de dollars par année, et qu'a employé par plus qu'il, c'est cut travail qu'il trouvera acceptance. C'est business là, ni aussi pour capter à capter qu'il pourrait déprouvoir l'année, et pour capoter une bonne repétition à façon à capter.  C'est-à-dire, les employés qui engageaient en façon pour sembler, et qu'ils pouvaient pas repos du agricole, un marketing board, adoyant plus ma position après ça, pour qu'ils travaillent trop plus, ça c'est après minister des agricultures, t'organiser pour suivre un spécial éternement. C'est participant, t'appuient pas d'aider un sérumonny à finissement éternement ça là, côté de la bonne manière pour sembler pour du agricole, à façon qui paraît poser d'hommage pour ces poudreurs. Éternement qui dit que pour six semaines, c'était pour faire ces participants capables pour traiter ces poudreurs à des guites internationales, et pour impouver production agricole en cette partie. Consultant des protections exaltées mangées, un pays-là, c'est Thomas Edmond, qui conduit ces éteriments ça là, expliqué pour tous pour qu'ils mangent un bon façon de sortir.  Selon messieurs Edmond, appuisant les officiers marketing board, qu'il fait à suivre qui toutes ces poudreurs fortifièrent pour m'un s'acheter. En science là, là, il faut qu'on s'achète, assis-moi cela, d'être sûr qu'il a acheté from you, bon, et qu'il paraît faire une malade. So, mon qu'est-ce qui est venu acheter from a marketing board, j'ai voulu c'est pour lui ça. Étonnement, des poudreurs qu'au vendredi, les 4e jour de septembre 2020. Du bâtement, qui est-ce que ça a pour développement sostenable? J'ai appelé pour point d'émarche, pour chercher façon, pour menager plus, mais, plein avec vivre de l'eau, petits animaux, à cette liste qui est pour tard, pour changer l'événement, sans n'y sauve, ministère Kakuaki, bon ménagement, c'est pour ça là, ça a aussi bénéfice économique qu'il a. Pour ça là, là j'en ai eu une décision, pour implémenter le projet de ménagement de l'événement mondial, ça c'est l'événement mondial qui est financé, pour j'ai appelé attention, enfin ça, sur le soleil le vend, et qui est capable d'établir développement économique, qui est sostenable, et qui change de façon, de bonne santé, pour système de révénement, c'est plein, et c'est des animaux ça là, et qui qui a aussi pour des bonnes bénéfices de l'événement international. Il y en a ça qui est plus important et pour ce ça là, c'est éducation publique et aussi participation. C'est pour ça qu'il doit m'en faire changer d'aujourd'hui, à teller, avoir l'assurance publique, et communication, et puis, qu'il n'y en a que oui, pour ça développer le façon de communication qui est tout effective. Alain Regis, qui est à facilité, atelier, à déclarer qui, pendant discussion, concerné façon, déménagement, restauration, équivalentitation, qui apparaît très technique, à faire ça là, qui a affecté, directement, les résidents en face à ceci. Alors, est très critique qui les résidents jouent au rôle, à bien au bon rôle, pour faire le possible, pour, c'est comme maintenant, pour le contrôle des projets salaires. Et que c'est quoi ça? On va trouver un bout de neuf là, M. Madame, moi car, M. Houtain, pour regarder, on a encore une invitation, j'ai depuis moins qu'on s'est dit, qu'on s'est fait l'avis, on a appuisé ça tout à l'heure, on a l'air accueillé à l'appuisant, on a appuyé appuisé ça tout, Jesse.


And, you know, we've been taught like there's only so many people who will give and only so much money and so we're afraid to let anything go. And that's what that's for me makes marketing and fundraising hard is because we're just not attracting our people. So how do we identify to truly make sure we're communicating to our people. You know tips or techniques that you can share with us to really hone in on who we are and how we can be so authentic in our, you know, I want to say tone but our narratives and the stories that we tell. Yeah. So, for me it's it's really two things it's the stories that we tell, but then also like understanding who we want to attract.  Like really understanding who do we want to come with us on this journey. And, and then looking from that and saying okay now what do we share what values do we share. Right what are the underlying values that we share, and then speaking to them from that space and how can I be a value to them so they will be a value to me. And I think that for me is the key and that when I talk about influence and teach influence that's the basic principles when I'm a value to you you'll be a value to me.


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Yeah, welcome back to Think Tech. I'm Jay Fidel. This is looking to the east In our one o'clock block with Steve Zercher who joins us from Kansai Gaida University in Kobe, Japan. Hi Steve Thank you for joining us. Absolutely. Good to see you again. It's my pleasure So, you know what there we've had a number of shows and you know Foreign service people come and tell us about the declining relationship between China and the United States and Some of them feel that it's all Trump's fault. Others feel that Trump was operating on the basis of a relationship that was already declining And certainly Xi Jinping is making a mess in in Hong Kong and threatening Taiwan And so what we have is a very aggressive China under an increasingly aggressive leader Xi Jinping The new security law in Hong Kong makes that clear So so i'm thinking that you know, there must be some kind of dynamic going on with Japan too Japan's right there And and it has to be in China's gun sites so to speak. So can you talk about that? Tell us what's going on? Yeah, that this is a very important issue for Japan for a variety of reasons, which we can talk about Regarding your excuse me your first point about trump and his Impact in terms of the japan-china relationship or the u.s. China relationship You may recall under obama He he promoted the asia pivot. Do you remember that that term? It's like okay, america. We've always been focusing on the middle east. We've always been focusing on europe for historic reasons But the future economic future the economic growth of the world is no longer in those regions It's out here Which is just clearly the the case if you look at the growth rates Of the countries in asia they far surpass the united states and europe But when trump came in Because he is anti obama right everything obama did he had to undo this was his personal agenda It's very clear now after a three and a half years So he undid the tpp the trans-pacific partnership Now one of the reasons why obama was supporting this and japan Was a very key support of this was to limit china To limit the economic influence of china which japan and united states is recognized as becoming very very powerful But by undoing that it kind of put japan Out in the cold it lost the number one economy. It lost its major partner on this effort So that's how things got started under trump. It really was kind of a confusing move and it was something that was not perceived positively within japan And then over the years as you know Trump has gone back and forth china is very important You know, we we're not going to criticize china when they are overly aggressive like in hong kong I i don't think trump has said much at all about that or it maybe he said a few things He was forced to do that So there's been this background of this uneven relationship. It started very badly with the withdrawal by the united states of the tpp So it's been confusing for japan What to do? So that's kind of the context of how japan views the us china relationship and how it's influencing japan now specifically to your question about japan and china The first thing i need to say is that japan and china have been in economic and political relations for 2000 years j The first recorded document that shows exchange between the two countries is 57 ad So almost 2000 years So I just want to say that so you and your viewers recognize This relationship is in a much longer context than we americans think about we tend to focus on what post world war two What's happened since then? So it's a very complicated relationship. There's elements of chinese culture throughout japan The food the language So in japanese people, maybe they don't really recognize that but if they stop and think They'll you know our kanji comes from china the food sources the philosophy the education system Confucian values all of those things are fundamental parts of the japanese culture So that just shows the context Of how much exchange there's been over the years and china's role in asia and influencing all of asia and in particular influencing japan Now let's bring that up to today How does japan? Manage china and it is complicated So japan's caught the number three economy is caught in between the number one economy and the number two economy And the way it's uh expressed in a very very simple way is that economics hot politics cold So economically japan recognizes how important china is China is japan's number one trading partner and has been that way for the last 15 years There's more japanese offices in china than any other place in the world more than in the united states There are thousands and thousands of japanese people working in china supporting manufacturing So economically there's integration and it's very very tight But politically as you know Japan is aligned with the u.s. Right, so it looks for leadership on foreign policy to the united states So japan is caught in this this kind of trap between their economic influences and their economic Goals and development and growth and political leadership foreign policy leadership, which is looking to the united states So it's a very difficult situation that japan's in abe to his credit Is walking a tightrope between these two countries and it's getting worse As you pointed out china's becoming more aggressive Worldwide and also in the asia-pacific region and there are specific conflicts On territory between japan and china that's in the news every day here So but on the other hand This is an example of how japan will defer to china This this year in april a president g was planned to come to japan for an official visit And then covet happened right and it was originated in china Japan the united states cut off chinese tourists. I think in march in early march japan did not chinese tourists were coming into this country from wuhan Without being tested or anything and why did they do that because they didn't want to create a sense of conflict Uh with president g's visit, which was going to be hopefully in april So it there's a very clear example of how japan is deferring To china in order to try and solidify the relationship between the two countries So you see it's a it's a very complicated question in japan's in a very difficult Position right now the last thing i'll say j i know you have many questions you want to ask is My sense is in terms of what trump's doing to try to get back to that point um Maybe this is partially my own thinking But i have a feeling that japan because they look at things in a longer context like 2000 years relationship with china trump Maybe gone in a few months or even if he wins again. That's just another four years. What's four years out of 2000 So i think japan kind of looks at this relationship with china beyond trump Long answer there j. Hope that wasn't too long. I hope we didn't lose our viewers through my long answer No, I don't think so that you know, no, you're you're really up on this So, you know one thing that strikes me is that it's something you and I have talked about before Is that you know, there's a dynamic of course between Japan and china that has to be in it in a time where everything is changing all around us But they're also and we talked about this before there also is a dynamic between japan and the us Mainly because trump is unpredictable He comes up with new things. You don't know what he's going to do from day to day And I keep hearing that that particular process that particular Characteristic connection with the u.s This is the number one complaint, you know beyond the the goofiness and all the other crazy stuff It said we don't know what america is going to do week to week and business people hate that And japan's government which reflects business interests hates that it's really Really difficult It's hard but china's taking advantage of this.  So I think that's also a part of what's going on in this region is that China's recognized through covet and through lack of leadership from the united states They're Goal of establishing dominance as a superpower, which frankly, I think we all recognize they are But they still have that goal. They're being able to accelerate their plans to achieve that Yeah, so I you know this In the united states we we think that You know this whole election thing between Trump and his convention and biden his convention and all the stuff about the election Post office. It's limited to a US audience not not it's a worldwide audience and everybody in the world in the smallest town in in Central india is going to know what's going on Yes, and every government in every country is going to be following us And see how it affects them and I think you're you're you're coming a moment ago about how That has affected And to some extent undermined policy with the us By japan and china is because of trump's inconsistency Nobody nobody trusts him to be consistent and you know, they say that in china Stability is everything. That's what shijing ping Must he must have he must he must Take steps for that In fact, you know, that's one of the reasons arguably why he's being so hard on hong kong because Hong Kong is a is a model of the Democratic protest that could be repeated In mainland china and he's got to put it down or wind up losing stability in mainland china So and I think I would guess you can confirm what deny but that the same Need for stability exists in japan maybe in different ways But I think the government and the various government officials in japan want to see stability They do not want to tolerate instability. Am I right about that? Yeah, yeah, I think that's a general principle Of business you cannot make plans if you have you don't have a clear idea Of what will happen six months from now or 12 months from now or 18 months and The asian cultures I can speak more generally here. I have experience in china korea and japan They that's one of the principles. That's one of the things that People expect out of the government is to provide a stable environment a healthy stable environment where people can grow and things can progress And anybody who upsets that in one way or the other That's that's bad and unfortunately Even though trump is not an asian, but he's running the united states as president And that as you point out has a strong influence On this region because of the economic and military power in the united states It's it's really been difficult so it makes the job of abbey even harder because He's caught between japan and china China's very clear what they're doing. There's no question about what china's doing Everyone understands that right? But then on the other side you have the united states and you have The tpp being rescinded within two days of a new president coming in something that they've been working on for years and years and years And the whole motivation was to limit china It was in the us best interest to do this and yet trump undid it So you have those types of things it makes it very difficult for abbey to figure out how to not offend china how to continue to Foster that economic relationship, which is so important to japanese businesses, but on the other hand historically politically, japan is linked to the united states and they have a Erratic partner there. So maybe abbey although he's he's lately. He's been going to the hospital He may be on his way out the popularity of his cabinet now is at lows But whoever would come in behind him would have the same problem. How do I balance the united states and china? So if biden comes in maybe even though he's an unknown Perhaps they would expect that their lease would be a consistent policy Against china the u.s china relationship would be predictable and that would probably be perceived as a positive So we follow frank ching who is a journalist in hong kong and You know his view A couple three months ago was that China wanted to see trump win And so if trump approached china for help As he said he was doing Just like he's approached russia for help now and in 2016. I don't think there's any question about that The man has no shame no principles. He wants to win both of them for help That that chijing ping was somewhat sympathetic with that earlier this year um, but now I think from just from our sources and our Analysis here after all the discussion about china's relationship with the u.s I think that may have changed And that chijing ping really um Doesn't want to see trump Uh elected because he's as as we have said too unpredictable um He offers chijing ping an opportunity to drive a truck through all those mistakes that trump makes And take advantage of of trump's uh In competence, but at the same time that that instability really bothers him And so trump's request for help from china Is not being met these days and of course i think china is going to be circumspect about it But I think they're probably saying no no we're not we're not going to help you go you know go go talk russia Don't don't ask us we we're not gonna We're not going to do the social media thing. We're not going to do the uh, you know internet research agency We're we're not going to do that And so I think it becomes more and more clear that chijing ping is is waiting trump out He's probably keeping his options open, but he doesn't want to affirmatively help trump win Okay, so the question yeah, I I have absolutely no information. This is pure speculation on my part, but I would imagine that the ldp the the dominant party here who's again the prime minister is avi they may also Be doing scenario planning and hoping That trump is out At this point too. That is I there's no official information on that nothing I picked up from the press, but I'm just my own guess after being here a while Many decades They may be hoping the same thing I mean in japan's case, it's even worse than china because china's taken advantage of trump's incompetence in japan Hasn't been able to do that because japan's linked so closely politically to the united states They've kind of suffered along with the rest of us in america through the lack of leadership and inconsistent I mean in north korea is a perfect example You know for avi was using north korea for nationalistic purposes making them the The boogie man trying to use that as a case to change the constitution as we were talking about before to allow Japan to become military militarily proactive And then who shows up there and takes pictures with his buddy You know without any advanced warning to japan and completely destabilizes just drops everything out from abe's campaign to turn north korea into the military Enemy to justify his own domestic political agenda It just evaporated. You know abe looked like a joke.  I'm going to take pictures You know things are going to be better the nuclear program in north korea is going to end now It was insane. If I were abe I would be I I'd be very careful about trump because trump, you know in making these Strange moves he he does have the effect of stabbing people in the back in terms of foreign policy And yeah, I think his motivation was Was his own self aggrand aggrandizement His own pr and american president the first american president to go to north korea Uh, he figured out this will I don't know what he thought but anyway. Yeah, he maybe the impact on japan and abe Probably never crossed his mind Yeah, so well if I were abe I I'd wonder if trump was reelected Whether he'd still have the same kind of support from the us if I were If I were the premier of taiwan, I would have the same concern Whether trump would support taiwan going forward. I mean he sent somebody from from his I forget who it was somebody from the state department over there a week or two ago to uh Evidence some support for taiwan, but in the long term. I don't I don't think they can trust him I think they know they can't trust him. So it gets as you said it gets very complicated So here's shijin ping is getting more aggressive Japan has this kind of conflict. They don't want to appear To be shoving off from trump on the other hand They're probably waiting for a better deal with biden biden would give him a better deal He'd return to the obama pivot as you mentioned Probably yeah Yeah, be a better deal for japan And and it's the same time you have to appreciate there are a lot of people in this country Who really have come to hate china? Because they listen to trump His his leadership Is so strong I put that in quotes on the point of let's all hate china. Let's punish china. Let's let's blow them up in every way we can Um, he can't get away with all of the things he wants to do But he has turned the opinion of the base Against china Yeah, I think it's more than the base j. It's the public opinion in the united states is 60 70 anti china right now That's beyond his base. Yeah, you're right, but this is pure politics. I think more than anything else and let's say trump gets reelected You know and within the first three months you may go to china It doesn't mean that anything will happen I think he's using this as a political weapon because he thinks he can score points against biden on this particular issue Again just puts more pressure on japan Right and of the lead up to the election just makes it harder for japan to parse This balancing act between china and japan. It's China in the united states. I mean so Yeah, um, there are elements of that in um in japan too There are japanese people And japanese politicians that are hawkish And think that japan should be more aggressive about limiting This push by china certainly for territorial push in the age of pacific region And they seem to be Actually becoming more powerful. So this economic influence is certainly there But it seems to be diminishing somewhat And the people the politicians who are saying we need to be more strongly anti china and be explicit about that So in the news just recently This state visit that i mentioned to you earlier that was scheduled for april And had to was delayed because of cove it. It's been left open as to when It will occur. So abe is still saying we were we will invite president ji into japan at some point however These the more right wing the hawkish Politicians now are saying we should cancel the invitation entirely because of the way china's behaving right now And they give the example of hong kong and the secaucus islands where there is this territorial dispute So there is i think lately Maybe somewhat because of the influence of trump and the china you know that the china flew You know calling it the wuhan flew rather than corona like the rest of the world does i think that is having some influence and it's giving maybe more credence or More cover for the right wing politicians in japan that look beyond the economics And just want to limit china in the region for purely for political reasons Yeah, i think there's a lot of people in china that that are mad at japan too Well, yeah, my last trip to china. I found people talking down japan And well the chinese government uses This this as a political weapon as well in the same way trump uses china to Excite his base and create a bogeyman You know and let's let's say china china sometimes does that against japan and this j this is another huge issue to talk about And that is china and japan's relationship during the colonial period in world war two. So there are still enduring Issues of uh, you know hatred and about what japan did Yeah, yeah it backed into world war two. So it's very easy for the chinese government to reignite that And talk about the atrocities that the japanese government Carried out during the colonial period and during world war two nanjing is is the the famous example which Many of these right wing japanese politicians deny even happened You know hundreds of thousands of people were killed chinese people were killed by the japanese military according to mainstream historians But in japan they deny that there's a certain segment of the Politicians and segment of society that denies that so That hasn't been in evidence in the last uh Five years or so or so, but you know 10 years ago It was pretty pretty open and there were chinese people. Maybe that's when you went j to china There are chinese people protesting in the street and burning japanese cars attacking japanese businesses Because it was it was a big it was it was a soccer field a soccer game. I don't know if you remember Um, no between a japan team and a chinese team in china And they got into a whole mob scene fighting each other about it in the soccer state So that that erupts periodically. It's been fairly calm and what the earlier part of this year china the official press was being somewhat complimentary of japan Because japan was being more cooperative with covet and we're sending masks and equipment to china initially so There's been at least at that national level Kind of a calm period that we're in right now, but at any given point any given Incident something breaks out. It could revert back to that overt nationalism In china and also to some extent here in japan You know you you mentioned steve about the constitution call it the macawthor constitution in in japan Where the military can only be used for defensive purposes and right and although You know that there have been exceptions to that over the years That's still the constitution and that's still the basic Rule of how japan and its military You know get along But but query, you know if there was fisticuffs say in the senkaku islands or any anywhere Where china is trying to establish You know extraterritorial jurisdiction And camp on other jurisdictions And take advantage if you will on territorial grounds I mean it happens china does this regularly most most recently was in india in the himalayas Big fight on a mountaintop between chinese and indian troops Very interesting But they keep on pushing always pushing So the question really is with that constitution can china fight back Can japan fight back sorry can japan fight back can japan protect itself Against chinese aggression um yes Yeah, japan has the right to defend itself and and of course that can be construed in a variety of different ways, but frankly The u.s. japan security alliance is still as strong as ever. So japan still exists under u.s military protection Right, so if a conflict was to break out between japan and china the u.s would be involved So that's that's still i mean a very important element to this overall relationship another reason why japan has to be so careful in terms of how it deals with the united states because it has Since world war two Depended on the jet of the u.s military to protect it i mean japan has the number one military behind it and I think any president whether it be trump or biden or whoever If japan was threatened in some way by china would probably intercede even taiwan I mean i there there could be a military reaction by the united states If china was for some crazy reason that they decided to invade taiwan Now that that i'm trying to won't do that. I don't think but if they did the u.s would probably Have a response So so that's the that's a bigger context of any type of conflict between japan and china if something breaks out The united states military planes will be flying, you know over wherever wherever this This breakout has occurred and u.s ships would be coming in and china knows that and japan knows that Yeah, we we got to maintain that kind of deterrence. I think it's very important for The interests of the united states not only yeah, and you have I think it's 40 000 american Soldiers in japan as you do in korea. So they're all over the okinawa You know they're all over the place. So the united states military presence is just dominant Now what about your kind of knows you mentioned that there are a lot of Japanese businesses with offices in china and and for that matter, I guess it goes both ways Chinese businesses with offices in japan Yeah, japan is china's third biggest trading partner Yeah So the the question is uh, how does that affect all this? I mean it seems to me that's a sort of a point of conciliation because you you don't want to disrupt Economic relations with anybody if you're making money at it, you know, like right try to stay friendly What what do you get on that particular dynamic? Oh, yeah, that's a very very important factor um, for example tourism Which up until covet had been japan's fastest growing industry segment international tourism who had gone from uh Five six years ago, maybe five million international visitors To over 30 million international visitors and the biggest group Chinese I mean they're they're During the peak periods, you know up through the early part of this year And also 2019 there were almost 10 million chinese people who came to japan to visit Generating tremendous amounts of revenue because chinese people love buying japanese goods because they have a petition for high quality I mean this is kind of a cliche Everyone in japan knows that chinese tourists come here and they buy A whole variety of medicines and consumer items and diapers Everything that they mistrust the chinese manufacturers and making they buy here and wrap it up and so that's a huge part of the Japanese economy and the most successful growth segment and it really rests on the relationship with china Now unfortunately that has all gone away because of covet but Once we have a vaccine japan and china will both do as much as they can to try and rebuild that And have tourism begin to go back and forth, but mostly chinese people coming to japan So that's a very clear example of how important economically The relationship between the two countries is Are japanese people i mean customarily before covet Do they buy a lot of things from china? I mean china may not have the same quality of manufacturing, you know that's no They don't buy things from china. No, no, um, it doesn't work the other way A very simple example My wife is japanese and she told me to go to the store to buy honey And I bought some honey and I didn't look very closely. It was made in china Through it away. She wouldn't even have it in the refrigerator. I had to go back and get honey from new zealand. That's okay So there is a general perception on the part of japanese That chinese products the quality is low and they get this from the chinese people because the chinese people tell them that The chinese people say yeah, our stuff is terrible. Don't buy it so there isn't that kind of The same awareness chinese people view japanese products as high quality japanese people view chinese products as low quality But the trade occurring is on manufacturing level You know of so many japanese companies are manufacturing their products in china Then shipping from china to us. This is how it all works So that lays the basis for this economic trade agreement between the two countries It's more on the manufacturing side not so much on the consumer side at least from japan's perspective Well, you know, I read recently that the number one automobile manufacturing Country now is china They're making tons of cars and they have somehow lifted american technology to make those cars pretty well Um, and I suppose they've probably lifted japanese technology too I don't know exactly how good those cars are against japanese cars, which are, you know, to me are the world's best But but query whether anybody's driving a chinese car in japan I don't think i've ever seen a chinese car here in japan There's and i it's actually hard to find american cars. BMW. Audi. There's a few european brands They have been successful But japan protects its auto industry very carefully toiota Honda and all of those companies have worked very closely with the ldp to make sure that it's difficult for foreign Manufacturers of cars to be successful in japan although there are some exceptions the united states manufacturers. They've all given up They're they're not even really here So but china gm that they sell more cars in china than they do in the united states gm does That is their growth opportunity and that mark you're right jade even with covet The automotive industry in china is growing now There are more cars being bought now because china managed covet In a much better way and things are bouncing back now Well, they're number one in so many things, you know, they're number one in ai They're number one in manufacturing solar cells They've made up their mind to do that and they've done that But we're almost out of time steven. I want to ask you one last question I mean what what what's coming home to me here is that the relationship? with between japan and china is It's it had the us is involved in that relationship You can't you can't answer the question unless you can imagine now What the us will do when the trump are under biden? And so it's an it's unanswerable until the election Really? Because things will or can change then but my question to you though. It's a slightly personal is Would do you see yourself? As going to china Now we're in the future now after covet, you know Yeah, I at this point in my life um No If I was coming out of college I used to advise my students They come to japan and i'm very happy to have them here But the japan economic prospects are are limited because of demographic issues things we've talked about in previous shows The market opportunity is in india and in china So I used to give them the advice that you really should think about these countries It's like when I came to japan japan was on the upswing. You know, I was lucky to be here at that time However today That's a little bit more complicated, isn't it? And the other thing too is that there are so many smart chinese graduates of us schools So if you're an american and you graduate from a good school and you want to do business in china You have to compete with chinese people who are fluent in the language, right? So it's it's a bit of a challenge. I think actually I was talking with a friend of mine yesterday about Where we would go to and it's it's actually vietnam Maybe myanmar some of these southeast asian economies, which are beginning just to break out of the the old You know top-down Stalinist chinese communist malice models and now are opening up to the world economy. That's where Tremendous growth opportunities are that's where it'd be a lot of fun to be Maybe as a teacher or more importantly as a businessman or businesswoman So that if if a student was to come into my office right now and ask me You know, where should I which where should I think about where would I want to where would I suggest that they go to? I would look at these countries. Have you been to vietnam j No, we would if you're visited there. We're going to go and kovat stopped us. Oh, it's too bad It's a wonderful country. The the people are so friendly Uh, and you just you get that vibe that things are going on. It's it's like being in hong kong uh, or being in in Shanghai you just have a feeling this country is progressing and moving forward. Oh, you know, I do want to I do want to discuss that exact point with you Okay, and we get together. I mean we're looking east from japan What do you see for the future for Japanese business and Japanese? Japanese students and what have you anyway, we're out of time steve zercher Our kansai gaida university enlightening us about looking east. Thank you so much steve Yeah, my pleasure j. As always look forward to our next show


keeping the world company. It's really important these days. And the title to our episode is Zelensky, Near the End of His Rope. Has the United States abandoned Ukraine? Okay, and we have my co-host, Tim Appichella. We have our esteemed guest, Gene Rosenfeld, emeritus, retired UCLA, history, and other things, lots of things. And Manfred Hennigsen, UH political science, retired emeritus. So welcome to the show, everybody. Good morning. So let me just say a few things here. And that is, when you say that somebody's running out of ammunition and you say it in a public statement to the world, aren't you really saying that person is just about out, or may be out? So it's a little confusing because you don't necessarily know exactly what the state of ammunition is. And when you talk about Congress, that's confusing to begin with because we don't know where that's going, although it certainly seems like they're not going to support Ukraine. Certainly for reasons of his own, or maybe for Vladimir Putin's reasons, Donald Trump. Trump is not going to support Ukraine. And his acolytes are not going to support Ukraine. And so Zelensky is left holding the bag, so to speak. We heard about 50 billion dollars coming from the EU a couple, three weeks ago. And we don't know where that is. Maybe one of you does. On the other hand, Ukraine is able to persist even in a war of attrition, and is able to sink ships as it did yesterday. And that's all to their credit. They're managing. On the other hand, how long can they last?  What is, as far as we know, the state of the war and the state of Ukraine's ability to deal with Russia? Well, depending on what article you read, it looks pretty grim when you have issues that manpower is running scarce to fill the ranks, to muster the troops. When you read articles about how the Ukrainian forces are forced to give up territory because their supply line is low. And what's really tragic about that story is that you have to think about the lives, the Ukrainian lives it took to gain that territory. And now they're giving it up because of their supply lines. So when you read stories like that, it doesn't cast a positive story that they're making progress and they're going to be able to hold out indefinitely because it doesn't look that way. So I think there's a red flag in the air, and we have to respond to it. And Europe has to respond to their commitments faster. And that's in the form of ammunition and logistics. See, Europe, you're often optimistic. I've heard you say optimistic things. How optimistic are you about this? Is he getting to the end of his rope now? And if he is, what's the next step? Well, as a historian, I look more at the recent past than the future. I don't predict. My optimism is based on comparisons. Let's go to where a year ago, well, February, yeah, 20th, 2022. This war started. And where was Ukraine and Russia? Where were Ukraine and Russia then? Russia had Crimea. It was fighting Ukraine to a standstill in Luhansk and Donetsk. That's where it is today. The only difference is that Ukraine is taken from Russia, control over the Black Sea to some extent. It's degraded one third of its naval power and its Black Sea fleet with the innovative use of cheap drones. As to where the money's coming from, nobody knows, except I think 50 billion dollars is expected from Europe. No, they don't have all the equipment. They need mostly what they need is manpower at this point, in addition to weapons and ammunition. And where is that manpower going to come from? That's the big thing. Russia, on the other hand, when Putin gave his interview to Tucker Carlson the other day, was making little signs that he is a rational player. He is not looking for a nuclear intervention. He is somewhat holding on until he can get a peace agreement that gives him exactly what he's got now, which is what he had at the beginning. And the United States has to make the calculation in an election year as to whether or not it's going to go for that type of resolution or it's going to be more muscular in supporting Ukraine, which it does not look like it's going to do. So I think what we're heading for cautiously is a war of attrition or stasis because Russia has taken a lot of hits with manpower too until Russia can get at least what it said. Putin has said to all of the Russians, what is Russian territory? I have to tell you that when you talk about what Putin says, I think of the movie, it was a comedy, Stalak 17 years ago. And there was a guy who got a letter from his wife through the Red Cross. And she said, you'll never believe it.  And in there was a newborn babe. So I'm going to take this babe and going to raise it as ours. And for the rest of the movie, this guy in the Stalak said, I believe it. I believe it. I believe it. I don't believe anything Putin says. And it's all inconsistent. And you saw the Tim Snyder's article about him. And now he had all his historical facts wrong the other day. That was extraordinary. So Manfred, you know, this has secondary implications, aside from the attrition, aside from the fact that Volodymyr Zelensky can't necessarily raise additional recruits for his army, is the average age in the army is over 40. And although he may be getting sub-Solentio, maybe he's getting weapons and money from somewhere which we don't know actually. In fact, he's got to be deteriorating. You know he's deteriorating in his cadre. He's had what he call it personnel problems. And I wonder about whether Vladimir Putin is responsible in some way for that. But he's having trouble. And he's more desperate than before. And all of this has a secondary effect on the rest of Europe, Manfred. What is that effect? What is the effect when Trump says he's going to pull out a NATO? He's going to drop the EU? He's not going to support Ukraine? All these things must be having an effect on the average European. What is that effect? Well, contrary to you, I'm not pessimistic about Ukraine and Zelensky. I think the impact on Europe may be very wholesome. They will get the act together. And maybe this peculiar behavior of part of the political class in the US will help the unification of the EU. And I think they needed that push if it's interpreted as a negative push. I think it has positive impacts. It has positive impacts in Germany. But it has positive impacts certainly in those countries that are mostly threatened, like Poland and the Baltic states.  And that is the spirit of the Ukrainian people. I do not think they are in the mood to surrender. And I will tell you, having traveled in the Ukraine in 2016 for two weeks from Lviv to Kiev to Odessa, what stunned me at that point, I was totally unaware, never been to the Ukraine. It's not only the greatness territorially of the Ukraine going by train from Kiev to Odessa, the second largest of the Russia-European country. No, what surprised me was at that time, 2016, this unbelievable spirit of them belonging to Europe. I mean, that was a political movement in the making since 2004. And it became really central in 2014. But in 2016, it was absolutely stunning, wherever we went, wherever we talked to people. This identification with Europe was profound. Well, you know, since then, Manfred, we see those bombed-out buildings. They have been aware of that. I mean, you read the last article by Marsha Gessen in The New Yorker, you know, and you get a wonderful impression of that. I do not think Ukraine is lost. Okay, I think it's only fair that we go back to Jean for a minute for reaction. Jean, do you agree with that? Nobody can know the future. The people of Ukraine have suffered the greatest catastrophe in the population, aside from the Shoah, the Holodomor, the Great Famine. They... A lot of the more, yes. Yes. And if Russia were to succeed in getting all of Ukraine, which I don't think is possible at this point at all, because it would be a tremendous loss for the United States if that were to occur, because this is a proxy war with the United States and Europe, for the West. It's part of Putin's grand plan. So I think that some sort of settlement resolution will prevail that will, as Putin said, the United States can create a resolution with dignity, he said, with dignity. In other words, to look like the United States hasn't lost a thing. And I think they're looking for that sweet spot right now, while both armies are, in a sense, stalemated with each other. And I don't think Putin is really happy about this war. It has not turned out the way he wants. It's had severe impact on Russia itself and the fleet and the people and his standing. So he almost had a coup d'etat at one point. So I think, really, there's a good chance that Ukraine will prevail. But I don't think that they're going to wind up with those two territories that Putin has already claimed. You know, there was an article, Tim, not to go about how the attrition and the effect on Ukraine would encourage the countries of Western Europe to suggest and participate in peace negotiation. And actually, when you think about it, Biden, who could be a lame duck on this issue, would do the same thing he's doing in Israel. He would make every effort to stop the violence and insist on a peace negotiation, which may or may not be the moral thing to do or the right thing to do, but it's a political solution given the pressure he has in the U.S. So all that considered and considering also that it doesn't look very bright, maybe these guys would disagree with me, it doesn't look very bright for American aid, either in weapons or money to Ukraine right now, isn't Gene right that we're going to wind up in a peace negotiation here? I would hope so. I hope there's a peace negotiation. And I think with any negotiation, there's a recognition that you don't get what you want. And I think Gene's spot on. I think at the end of the day, after many thousands of lives have been lost, the borders are very similar to what took place before the invasion of Russia into Ukraine. I think that's where it ends up. Zelensky has the ongoing effort to maintain a public relations campaign to keep the synergy going so that nations support the effort financial or otherwise. And that's a daunting task to keep the support going. He's got to really remember that he's got to keep stories out of the news about financial misappropriation from his people and his own administration, if you will. And those kind of stories will kill support. And particularly the Maga Republicans will jump on those stories and say, see, this is why we shouldn't fund Ukraine. And some of those stories have already gotten out. And so it's imperative that Zelensky clean house and keep a vigilant watch on his generals and on his administrative staff to make sure that those stories, a, don't occur and, b, more importantly, don't get out in the news headlines. But you have to keep remembering that the support has to continue without victories in the headlines. Because that seems to be what took place this last summer that we were waiting for victory headlines and they weren't forthcoming. And so I think there was a disappointment, if you will, from Congress that the war had stalled. And therefore their interest and support had waned. And that's wrong thinking. And I hope that we get past that. But all the things you were saying about the United States are true, but they are not true when you're talking about Europe. You have in Europe a completely different response on the way you have a greater movement toward unification in the support of the Ukraine. And that is quite amazing that that has happened. And it is not limited to Germany, but to all of Europe, including strangely enough, Great Britain also.  Yes, there will be negotiations where they lead. We don't know at this point. I mean, you have to remember that the impact of the war on the civil population in Russia is as depressing as in the Ukraine. And when you're looking at the soldiers that are fighting in the Russian army, they are not only the prison population, but many of them are from the Asian parts of Russia. And their connection to this war emotionally is not very, very strong. So I don't make very good soldiers, do they? They're not very aggressive on the front lines. I don't know. I don't know whether they do. But I think your American perspective is I don't know whether it's I want to turn to Gina and something that's been discovered that this has been from day one, a proxy war between Russia and the U.S. And is the fact that Congress is locked up on this, and it's not likely to provide support to Ukraine, does that change or would that change in the future the nature of the proxy war? It seems to me that if the U.S. is tying its own hands, it's really this is not a proxy war for the U.S. It may be a proxy war against the U.S. as far as Putin is concerned, but aren't things changing? Isn't Putin really dealing with Western Europe? And isn't Ukraine the proxy of Western Europe or becoming the proxy of Western Europe? Well, I don't think you can separate Western Europe from America in Putin's mind and in his strategy and in the aggression that he has promoted in this century toward Western Europe and the United States, what he calls hegemony over the global economy and social and military affairs. We are still the most dominant nation in the world. He's working very hard to change that. He's working very hard to have control over Europe. I don't think he wants to occupy Europe, but he does want Europe to be within his camp. And Ukraine definitely within the Russian Federation. In fact, he does not make any distinction between Ukraine and Russia. So number one, if he gets away with that, then he's poised on the borders of Central Europe, which has always been the march. The flatlands between Western Europe and Russia has been a battlefield, has been a killing field for a century. So I think, yes, we are involved. We are involved with Western Europe. The biggest question I keep returning to this, Jay, is what's going to happen this November? Are we going to put a buffoon with no knowledge or understanding of human affairs from the human heart all the way up to the global elites in charge? And we're going to be doing damage control for the next four years? Or are we going to be a player in the world? Because all that is what Russia needs is four years to wage a huge propaganda campaign and develop his hypersonic missiles to advance his vision of undermining the United States' currency and the United States' influence in the world. But, Gene, Trump has said, and he doubled down again today, that he is not going to support Ukraine, that he is not going to support NATO. And on day one, if he wins or somehow takes office, on day one, he's going to cut off that support completely. There won't be anything. So we already kind of know the chances are pretty good that the US is going to back out of this and go into isolation mode. That's got to affect things that can't help Ukraine at all. It sounds like a Trumpist. Trump-er is the term, by the way. Well, whatever the term is, but it's bad enough as a Trump-er or a Trump-ist. No statement has been so insulting to me for a long time, is that? It sounded...  So Gene, Gene, I just want to know what that's got to affect the current status quo. If Trump is elected, if Trump gets into office and pulls all the support, are we still at the top of the heap? Trump is acting today as a co-president, and the media is collaborating with him. Major columnists within the media are calling the media on this, if you read a number of major columnists. So they're getting wise to the fact that the media is behind Trump. And so, yes, we are facing that, and Europe is concerned. Europe already is concerned that it's going to have to work up so many for Ukraine, because, and this is, of course, what Trump would like. He'd like to see Europe supporting Ukraine, and the United States out of it so we can satisfy his isolationist movement and consolidate his personal power and make the United States his own special little heath dump. And we're fighting more on two fronts right now, domestically and also in Europe. Absolutely. Tim, yes? To tag on to Gene's comments, the media has portrayed a private citizen to make statements recently that strikes fear in the hearts and minds of European leaders, fearing the worst that the United States would pull out of NATO. What the media is not reporting is something I said just before the show. And in the Defense Renewal Act, past December 14, 2023, a bill sent by Senator Mark Rubio and Tim Kaine, this bill has passed, and it basically says, no president shall withdraw from NATO unless it has two-thirds support of the Senate. How easy or how difficult it is to get two-thirds of a vote. That's regardless. I think, you know, there's some other point in it, in the discussion. Somehow, you create this impression that nothing is happening in Europe. I think the impact of this threat of Trump getting into the White House, which I still do not believe will happen, I think there is a majority of somewhat more rational Americans than people give the U.S. credit for at this point. But I mean the impact on this discussion in the United States and Trump's statement in Europe is very encouraging in terms of European's understanding, the political class in Europe is understanding that they have to do more in order to unify as an emerging European republic. I mean, that project is still part of the future of the European Union. It's not simply an international organization, it is really a republic in the making. And I think in that regard, whether Trump becomes now president or not, the discussion in the U.S. has reinforced this trend in a way that people could not imagine before, not only because Sweden and Finland wanted to join NATO, no, it has the list of countries that still want to join the European Union has been growing. From your lips to God's ears, Manfred, I really hope that comes true. And that is the optimistic side of me, anyway. Jean, I want to drill down on something that I guess both you and Manfred raised, especially Manfred, if we have peace negotiations here, some kind of settlement, whether the U.S. is active in that or certainly Europe would be active in that. And Putin has said, although I don't know if we should believe him, that he wants to have peace negotiations. What is it going to look like? What's the carve-up? How do you reverse the crime and crimea? And doesn't Ukraine need crimea to sell its agricultural products to Africa? There's a lot of moving parts in any settlement negotiation. What's the best case? What's the worst case? And what's the most likely case? And you're asking me to predict. Doing that. I have a sense of where we're heading now. I can't tell you where we'd be heading if Europe weighed in heavily, for example, and Trump was not elected. That's the best case scenario in which we would continue to fund Ukraine. Ukraine would freshen up in terms of supplies and somehow find the manpower to do what it is capable of doing. And it's much more capable than just holding a line, which is what Russia's doing in a bunch of trenches. I mean, Ukraine really is the more innovative actor here and has the more sophisticated advice available. So that's the best case scenario that Ukraine could push back and it could dominate in negotiations to get the best possible thing. They said they want crimea. That's a big take. Maybe they could. Maybe they couldn't. That's the best case. I don't think they're going to get Donetsk and Luhansk. Okay, so let's, they're dev territories anyway, unfortunately. In terms of a worst case scenario, people could step up to the plate much too late. The manpower could fail. Russia could activate more of its innovative missiles against Ukraine. Supplies would falter. Manpower would falter. And Ukraine would not give up. But Ukraine would be in a defensive mode against a powerful enemy. And Europe would be cowering. I don't think that's going to happen either because of Poland and the Baltics. There is a history here. They had the largest empire in Europe and they were head on with the Soviet, went up the Soviet Union, but Russia at the time. And Ukraine is at this point aligned again with Poland and the Baltics. And if Ukraine were to fall, I believe Russia's next take would be the Baltics because they threaten Konigsberg, they threaten the warm water port on the Baltic Ocean. And I don't think Russia would would rest until it dominated the Baltics and Poland again. So I don't think that's going to happen either. The most likely case is at this point, from what I can see, even if Trump wins, that Europe will step up to the plate and Ukraine will continue to resist. And there will, finally, the attrition will get to Putin. It's getting to him already. And there will be a settlement based on what we see right now and what existed before. You may say that historians don't like to predict, but wow, that's pretty heavy. That sounds like prediction to me, Gene. I'm sorry. I don't own it. Well, you're not so reluctant to predict though, Tim. What's your prediction? I love to predict. You know, I think the supply chain gets restored. Manpower is a critical issue. And, you know, when you have a manpower issue, let's not forget that throughout history, some nations have relied on the concept of paid mercenaries. And I could think of a whole bunch of mega red gun enthusiasts that might just like to call or answer the call to muster and find themselves in Ukraine. Who knows? But you could always use mercenaries if you have to. So, Manfred, you know, one of the things that we really should drill down on, and your specialty would be, your expertise would be helpful on this, is exactly politically what is going on in Russia. You know, perhaps Putin is coming to the end of his rope, too. How far down is Putin? How far down Putin's rope is Putin? And is he really going to outlast Ukraine? It's a war of a Christian, as Gene says, both ways. How much trouble is Putin in? Well, I think he will outlast Biden, even though, interestingly enough, the most recent statement he made about Trump becoming president again, he prefers Biden in the White House because he's more rational than Trump. I mean, this is now Putin talking about Trump and Biden. But one point about your prediction about Crimea. I mean, the Ukraine doesn't really need Crimea in order to conduct the rain traffic to Africa and other parts of the world.  They are not in the Crimea. So the whole food production that comes from the Crimea and goes into the world does not need Crimea. So for that reason, I mean, remember, Crimea was handed back or handed to the Ukraine by Khrushchev after the death of Stalin. And Khrushchev was not a Ukrainian, but he was Russian-born, but he was the chairman of the Ukrainian Communist Party for almost 30 years. And for some strange reason, he thought he had to hand it, give it as a gift to the Ukraine. And Brezhnev did not change that. Brezhnev was also not Ukrainian. He was Russian. But you have to also remember Putin's crazy argument when he launched his invasion in 2020 was that the Ukraine has been part of Russia for forever. And he blamed Lenin for making, of creating the Ukraine. Now, Lenin did not create the Ukraine. Lenin was against Stalin's plan to have a unified socialist republic. But the USSR, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, in a way, constituted these 15 independent or semi-independent republics that later in the 1990s then went independent as, or many, both of them as nation states. So the Ukraine existed within the USSR as an independent republic like the others, like Russia itself. In a way, you could say Lenin created Russia by creating the USSR. So in a way, it was the defeat of the czarist Russia that Lenin set into being against the will of Stalin. But Stalin didn't succeed. Can we go back to the question of how Putin is doing, whether he's losing ground politically in Russia? Look, we don't know enough about what is going on in Russia itself. But from all of the reports that one can read about the situation is, his support is not growing. I mean, he is, I wouldn't say he's in his trouble. His position is troubled. But he is, I mean, the elections will not, which will take place soon, the presidential election, they will not give us any indication of that. He will get maybe 80% because all of the potential candidates are in prison or out of the country. I guess you're saying that Navalny is not likely to win. Yes, it would be nice if he would. But I think we're out of time. So let's go around.  Silly fellow. So let's go around for the final comments. Jean, I'm interested to hear how you integrate all of this. I think that, again, we are engaged in a new type of warfare with the coalitions and parties reassembling themselves. Again, we are living through a year of many elections that are going to determine the course of the next several years. So we have to wait until those elections are in, the results are in, before we can really get a handle on what the future will be. Most importantly is the election here in the United States. The media is doing a terrible job of covering the campaigns today. It's supposedly even handed, but any oxygen you give to Trump is a bad idea right now. So let's just say worst case scenario, or likely scenario, even that Trump gets in for another four years. That takes us out of the equation in terms of being an effective member of the coalition of Europe and the West. And it gives a lot of oxygen back to Putin. We're sort of in a nervous state right now waiting with bated breath. Biden seems to have backed off from Zelensky. We don't know what's going on behind the scenes. Biden does not want a war with anybody. And he will take a negotiation over a war anytime. I presume the negotiation is going on now. I presume Putin knows that and wants Biden to stay in office so we can continue the negotiation, give the United States a big leaf and get what Russia wants. That's what I suspect. Would it be greater if Netanyahu got together with Zelensky? That would be a different kind of negotiation. What are your thoughts? What's the likelihood that the United States of America will provide support in weapons and money to Ukraine? Despite negative headlines in the news, I think the United States fulfills his commitment that we made from the outset of this war. We fulfill that commitment and the money will come through, at least for $54 billion after that, hard to say. But I agree with Gene that we're going to have to wait until the American presidential election to take place. Putin's waiting to see who's going to be the next president. And I suspect he's probably like to see a negotiation too, and not to predict, but maybe to predict that the borders you see today are probably the borders that would end up in the negotiation as a final settlement. And one last question to you, Manfred, is what's the likelihood that the EU will actually come up with the... Tim referred to the $54 billion. Tim, I think you were thinking of the EU commitment rather than the... Yes, I'm sorry. They did the EU number. So Manfred, what's the likelihood in your view that the EU and the NATO countries in the EU will come up with $54 billion out of its own pocket, out of their own pockets? I mean, it's absolutely solid. It's a promise that has been made, and they will deliver. Now, what is... You are speaking about elections, and you are typically focused simply on the United States, but you have the elections in June to the European Parliament. And they will be very, very important in order to find out whether the right wing has any chances in Europe. Now, I'm very happy about what happened in Germany two weeks ago, when you had millions of people demonstrating against the right the AFD in German cities, from Hamburg to Munich, from Berlin to Frankfurt, an absolutely exceptional outpouring of civil society against the right wing. And remember, Germany is a very ethnically diverse country at this point. You have lots of not only Muslims living, 4 million Muslims living in Germany, but you have a lot, I think, close to 2 million Ukrainian refugees also. And these refugees are a reminder, not only in Germany, but in Poland, in other European countries, of what may happen to them. Their daily reminder of the dangers that Putin's Russia is really threatening them with. So in that sense, Europe is in a different situation than the United States. In that case, I appreciate that, and we're about out of time. I just want to add one thought. One thing is clear from all this discussion is that we are in a state of change and nervousness, as you said, Jean, and the change may be going faster than we think, changing in the EU, changing in NATO, changing in the US, although I have my expectations and hopes for that, and changing even in Russia. The world is in a state of change more than I can remember it ever being. So anyway, well, thank you all for this discussion. Jean Rosenfeld, Manfred Hennigstern, and our co-host, Tim Hapichela, aloha.