Welcome to NTN Nightly, I am Genelle Norville. This edition stops stories. St. Lucia to assess the viability of its geothermal resources following World Bank funding. Prime Minister the Honourable Philip J. Pierre to ascribe greater significance to St Lucia's heritage and patrimony and applying knowledge to crop protection. The World Bank Board of Executive Directors has approved US$21.9 million for the Renewable Energy Sector Development Project for St Lucia. This grant financing will help the Government of St Lucia assess the viability of its geothermal resources for power generation and strengthen the business environment for the private sector to pursue clean energy projects. The World Bank says the Renewable Energy Sector Development Project will help St Lucia evaluate how geothermal energy can contribute to the country's national energy mix. Clean energy from geothermal sources can improve electricity system reliability and reduce the cost of oil imports. Transitioning to renewable energy would also decrease the country's vulnerability to the volatility of fuel markets. Consequently, the World Bank believes the future development of geothermal energy informed by the activities financed by this project will translate into lower electricity costs for households and businesses. High electricity prices in St Lucia are an impediment to economic competitiveness and growth. Over 55% of firms identify the high cost of electricity as a major constraint to doing business in St Lucia. While electricity is supplied reliably, the country remains almost completely dependent on expensive imported fuels for diesel-based generation. Securing clean and resilient energy will also help the country to achieve a green economic recovery in line with St Lucia's Economic Recovery Resilience Plan. The project will support exploration, drilling, capacity building, technical assistance and market engagement. The project will also prepare women for employment for technical jobs within the energy sector by giving them access to educational programs and employment opportunities. The project is financed by the Canada Clean Energy and Forest Climate Facility, the United Kingdom's Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, the Clean Technology Fund as well as funds from the International Development Association, IDA. IDA financing is interest-free with a maturity of 40 years, including a grace period of 10 years. From the Government Information Service, Lisa Joseph reporting. St Lucia's Prime Minister Hon. Philip J. Pierre on Sunday delivered his first address on a national observance. The Prime Minister told the nation that the celebration of Emancipation Day from now on will be one centred on meaningful themes for the society. The first of August 1834 marks the end of slavery in the British Empire when the 1833 Abolition of Slavery Act came into force. In St Lucia, some 13,283 people from 384 plantations were freed from slavery. To this day, Canada and many of Britain's former colonies in the Caribbean including St Lucia commemorate the end of slavery on August 1, Emancipation Day. Prime Minister St Lucia, the Hon. Philip J. Pierre in his address explained that the day over the years has not been given significant recognition, something that this Government intends to change. This message today from me as Prime Minister is a signal that from now this Government will make the first of August a major event in a national calendar. Our self-esteem, our dignity, our respect for the lives and struggles of our forefathers demand this of us. For while slavery was abolished in St Lucia and other British territories, 183 years ago, the mindset and racial attitudes that brought African people to the Caribbean and the Americas as slaves still lingers. In recent times, we have graphically witnessed in the USA the unwarranted killing of the African-American George Floyd in Minnesota last year and that of our own Bouffam Jean the year before in Texas and that of so many other African-Americans. These events have shocked the consciousness of the entire world resulting in a universal cry for racial equality, human rights and justice for all. The Prime Minister explained that the war against racial discrimination, poverty, disease, drug abuse, marginalisation and inequality continues. He added that the commemoration of Emancipation Day signals that the resistance has not yet ended and St Lucia must power the development of the country through education, commitment, discipline, hard work and the determination to succeed. The Government of St Lucia Honourable Pierre Noted will also be playing its part. The Government of St Lucia will always support the preservation of our heritage and the importance of sustainable use of the environment. In this regard, the Government of St Lucia will immediately reinstate the Government's subvention to the St Lucia National Trust. Our Government will also lend full support to the Caribbean Reparation Commission in its efforts to obtain reparation justice from our former European colonial powers. The commemoration of Emancipation will not however be confined to giving greater recognition to the First August. It has to be a continuous process of continuous education and so this Government will take steps to ensure that the African, Caribbean and St Lucia history is taught at all levels of our schools. We will also examine the possibility of making Creole an official language of our country. The Slavery Abolition Act in British History is the act of Parliament that abolished slavery in most British colonies freeing more than 800,000 enslaved Africans in the Caribbean and South Africa as well as a small number in Canada. It received royal assent on August 28, 1833 and took effect on August 1, 1834. Meanwhile, a major exhibition detailing St Lucia's history and heritage in the Caribbean context was launched on Emancipation Day, the 1st of August. The Canadian University of the Netherlands and the St Lucia Archaeological and Historical Society have collaborated with the parish of Holy Trinity Anglican Church in staging Caribbean ties. Several other partnering agencies such as the St Lucia Government, St Lucia National Archives, ICA, the National Reparation Committee, one senior Patrick Anthony Folk Research Centre, Indian Heritage, Uwe Open Campus and the St Lucia National Trust have contributed to the month-long showcase. We get details from Jesse Leos. On this year's occasion of Emancipation Day, Catholic priest and cultural activist Monsignor Patrick Anthony reaffirms that real emancipation will be achieved through the strengthening of mobilisation efforts for reparatory justice. He was the featured speaker at the Caribbean Ties exhibition launch held on August 1 at the Holy Trinity Anglican Church in Castries. The month-long event details St Lucia's history and heritage. Commending this initiative, Monsignor Anthony emphasised the need for increased awareness about the events surrounding slavery and eventual abolition in order for the population to truly liberate itself from the intergenerational traumas associated with its colonial past. Part of emancipation is a challenge for us to recognise how we have to emancipate ourselves from mental and spiritual and psychological and emotional slavery. We have to do it. Nobody will do it for us. We have to do it. And that is a challenge, that emancipation. 2021, places before us in St Lucia. They say it's a new beginning, a new times, we have new government, et cetera, et cetera. I don't know. All I'm saying is that the cultural activists, the men and women of spirit, of soul, who have understood that no matter who in government, no matter what they do or what they don't do, we have the capacity to help our people understand the power of God's people, that the power of God within them can achieve greatness. Monsignor Anthony highlighted the great injustice dealt to former slaves when the British Empire only compensated former slave owners for the abolition of slavery. He calls for the marshalling of descendants, activists and otherwise to see reparatory justice fulfilled. They paid 25 pounds, three shillings and four pence per head. In other words, the owners were compensated for losing the slaves. That is why the work that has been done here, Archdeacon, is linked with the work of the reparations committee in St. Lucia, of which I'm a proud member, because you see, there is something called reparatory justice. There is a reparation that must be done, and that reparation must be done by all of us. Throughout the month of August, the Anglican School Annex Top School will host the Caribbean Ties Exhibition from 8am to 5pm weekly, featuring a varied cultural package, including artisans at work to enliven the exhibition. It is free to all patrons, especially school children and visitors to the island who are interested in the historical affairs of St. Lucia. The Leiden University of the Netherlands and the St. Lucia Archaeological and Historical Society have collaborated with the parish of Holy Trinity Anglican Church in staging Caribbean Ties. For the Government Information Service, I am Jesse Leans reporting. Carrer-Tiniat Law Leslie Vincent Mondaysi has been appointed Attorney-General of St. Lucia. On Friday, 30th July 2021, a swearing-in ceremony was held at Government House. Honourable Leslie Mondaysi as Attorney-General will serve as the Principal Legal Advisor to the Government of St. Lucia. More from Hermione Mark. Honourable Leslie Vincent Mondaysi took the oath of allegiance and the oath of office of Holy Trinity, Friends and Select Colleagues. I Leslie Vincent Mondaysi do swear that I will faithfully bear true allegiance to St. Lucia, that I will discharge my duties and perform my functions honestly to the best of my ability faithfully in accordance with the law and always in the interest of the sovereignty, integrity, solidarity, well-being and prosperity of St. Lucia and that I will not directly or indirectly communicate or reveal the business or proceedings of the cabinet or the nature or contents of any document communicated to me or any matter coming to my knowledge in my capacity as the Attorney-General except as may be required for the due discharge of my duties. So help me God. Honourable Mondaysi worked in the office of the Director of Public Prosecutions for seven years as a prosecutor in the Magistrates Court, High Court and Court of Appeal. He transitioned from the DPP's office into private practice in 2007. Honourable Leslie Mondaysi as Attorney-General now serves as the principal legal advisor to the Government of St. Lucia. He describes his appointment to the Post as a proud moment in his career. So I think with the background seeing it on both sides, prosecution and defence, though in a criminal sense I think it would be prepared me in terms of dealing with this office. Though I had a number of clients in private practice, I believe it would be the Government and the people of St. Lucia. So in that regard, I think I'll do the best I can. I will do the best I can for my clients in terms of conducting my duty as the Attorney-General of St. Lucia. I think it's a great honour and I stand here with a great sense of pride, to be honest. And it was a lot of hard work for us to be here today, but I really thank the Honourable Prime Minister. I cannot thank him enough for at least having the trust and faith in me. The people of St. Lucia. Honourable Leslie Mondaysi now heads the Attorney-General's chambers, which includes the Advice and Listigation Department, the Registry of Companies and Intellectual Property, the Legislative Drafting Department and Financial Intelligence Authority. From the Government Information Service, I'm Humedy Mark. A Crop Protection Officer in the Department of Agriculture is calling for increased training and certification for farmers to better equip themselves with the issue of indiscriminate use of highly hazardous agents. During an interview on the latest episode of NTN's Agriculture on the Move, Cletus Alexander says the emergence of new technology has shed light on the extent of pesticide impact and reinforces the need to use such products as recommended. But when I drive around, I see the way farmers are using pesticides in 2021. I wonder if it's a reminder or it's a revolution to educate farmers about the impacts of pesticides on the environment, animal health and humans. As I said, the problem with pesticide use in St. Lucia, indiscriminate pesticide use, there are two major problems there. You have one, as I said, a farmer who cannot read and write, who cannot understand the label. You have to come to the agri-businessman for a pesticide. Now that agri-businessman has no information about the active ingredient. You will tell the farmer, use this, use that. But does he understand how the active ingredient is working? Because there is a trick in the pesticide. You have the active ingredient and you have what is called the inert ingredient. Now with the inert ingredient, that is a trade secret. The manufacturer will tell you what the active ingredient is.  Now the inert ingredient may be more toxic than the pesticide itself.  So that's why it is very important that you use pesticides wisely. Alexander adds that there are specific modes of application required for the use of pesticides and is concerned that some farmers may not be in adherence. The equipment that you're going to use is very important. The pressure of the equipment is also important. What I see farmers doing out there, take for example you have Vidit. You're supposed to use Vidit with a Vidit gun. Every shot would be 7.5 ml. Diluting the pesticide in the NAFSA which was not supposed to happen. So you find pesticide use in St. Lucia. Farmers are not adhering to the pesticide label. They cannot write and they believe if probably the extension officer tells them to use 5 ml. If 5 ml can control the pest they believe probably 10 ml will eradicate the problem. But it will not. We have to go against this thing. The indiscriminate use of pesticides is not in St. Lucia alone. It is a regional problem. It is a global problem as well. Cosscutting is also an aspect of indiscriminate use of pesticides as using less of the product is likely to increase a pest resistance to the product over time. While you may save some dollars by using less chemicals but on the long run you are causing a major issue that is pesticide resistance because on the pesticide label the rate at which the pesticide should be applied is on the label.  Now when applying pesticide on some will be sensitive some that is those that will be affected and you have some that will not. For example, if you do not use the correct rate it may not control the insect. Now by using, by doing that the insect is not controlled all the time you will get exposure to the pesticide and in the long run it is not going to control the pesticide. So while trying to save money you will find yourself a bigger problem on the road. Yes, because you will end up using more pesticides than necessary. Welcome back. We join Primus Hutchinson for the NTN Nouvelle Aquéol. M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle M. Genelle Part of the strong political party found the victory in the election of 2021 in Baconduit, Prime Minister Hon. Philip J. Pierre, who was in 13th Paris. Having said that, Prime Minister Pierre declared that it was a very long and difficult road. He added that he thank God that he assisted to make the road a success and that he continued to use his strength and hard work to get closer to excellence to make the road a success in the future. Prime Minister Hon. Philip J. Pierre declared that Prime Minister had promised that he would work hard to make the road a success but for all citizens of the country. He added that he had arrived to lead the country in a way that is equal to all people. He also said that he would be able to understand that Prime Minister had never received the respect that he deserved except that he had understood that Prime Minister had never received the respect that he deserved because he had never received the respect that he deserved because he had never received the respect that he deserved but think about일� for us to present this sacrifice, which is made for the people of Lime, the settlers of Eklot Nationegg in Karebla, Eklavestalatia. The Prime Minister said, we must observe the situation, but it will continue to cause poverty, bad health, equality problems, decriminalization, drug problems, and so on. We must continue. The Prime Minister advised us to continue fighting for the development of our country, for education, for the principle of commitment, for the work we do, and for the determination to succeed. The Prime Minister said, before the position of the Prime Minister, it was the Minister of Tourism, the Minister of Commerce, the Minister of Construction, and the Chief Opposition of the Government. The Prime Minister said, to present the Prime Minister's Cabinet, I said the sixth day in May, at 4pm in the afternoon of 2020, he said, we must continue fighting for the development of our country. The Prime Minister said, in front of the public, on television, on Facebook, on YouTube, and on the media. I said, in front of the public, on the media, on Facebook, on Facebook, and on the media, on the Internet, on social media. I said, I will continue fighting for the development of our country. To present the Prime Minister, the Prime Minister said, before the position of the Prime Minister, The second part of the economic development is not about the condition of hospitals and gyms, but about projects that are important. There is a discussion and the officials don't agree that the projects of the development are not important. The Prime Minister, the Prime Minister, and the Prime Minister of the Philippines continue the discussion and the government officials are the ones who are elected to work at the Cabinet of Ministers at the Parliament. During the preparation that was made for the Senate Ministers, I made the sixth amendment in 2020. The Prime Minister, Philippe Jepied, who is a Portuguese nation, and then we learned that this was done after the end of the entire assessment. Last Friday, on the 20th of July, the Prime Minister said that we will receive an appointment for the West Coast Ability to finance the economic development and make the young people better. The Prime Minister, continue and the traditions that have already existed to change the position and make the West Coast Ability the most important Minister, as well as new qualifications for economic management and business management. And then the next thing we will find is the Avocados, the members of the parliament who will have a position that we can run in general. We have made Avocados, the members of the West Coast Ability for all the government affairs, and we will follow the Constitution. We will have the members of the parliament who will be able to contribute 20 years of experience to the Avocados to serve the Cabinet of Ministers at the Government, as the head of the legal affairs council. Apart from the appointment, it was Ma'am Zelle Mandel-Louis who contributed to the communication affairs in the first Minister's office. Before that, he was the head of the communication affairs, a political party. The position was there and the West Coast Ability to represent the Prime Minister in all the communication affairs. And that's all we will find. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you so much for watching. Thank you for the invitation. Thank you again. If you have any questions, then I present a lot of news. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. Chanel.


Good afternoon everyone and welcome to the financing the net-zero future We've got a terrific panel for you today to discuss the challenges and opportunities To unlock the 50 trillion of financing that we'll need over the coming decades to accelerate into a net-zero future Before introducing our Outstanding panelists, I'd first like to share with you a video pre-recorded by John Wharton Climate counselor to the secretary of the US Department of Treasury who was unable to join us But wanted to share with us this short message Thank you very much for the opportunity to speak with you today And thanks to the World Economic Forum for inviting me to say a few opening words at the top of this panel on Financing the net-zero future as the climate counselor to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen I spend each day working with experts from across the department to leverage Treasury's tools and Authorities to affect and enable the transition to this administration's goal of a net-zero emissions economy The challenges posed by climate change are daunting But as this audience knows very well, there are extraordinary economic opportunities Embedded in the transition to a lower carbon and ultimately net-zero economy and The question is not whether this transition will occur But rather how quickly who will lead and who will be left behind and these are questions not just of tremendous environmental consequence, but tremendous economic consequence Fortunately the trends in both public and private markets are clear and positive countries representing now Three-quarters nearly three-quarters of global emissions have made net-zero commitments by mid-century and many are backing those up with strong 2030 targets along the way and Nearly half of global assets under management are now attached to mid-century net-zero commitments as well These commitments are meaningful, but must be followed by concrete measurable actions and today We know that market participants are contending with significant data and information gaps and would benefit from more clarity on What sorts of investment opportunities are consistent with low greenhouse gas emissions and climate resilient pathways? Supporting the flow of capital towards activities that are consistent with these pathways Requires building an ecosystem of data information practices and procedures that enable financial markets Market actors to fully integrate climate consideration into their decisions This information is critical for pension fund managers as well as pensioners who want their investments to align with their values The public sector plays a pivotal role in helping to inform guide and D-risk private capital flows for alignment with climate goals and to ultimately unlock trillions of dollars of climate finance I'd like to briefly highlight three treasury-led initiatives that are seeking to do just that first Secretary Yellen chairs the Financial Stability Oversight Council or EFSOC a grouping of the US 15 independent financial regulators As specified in President Biden's May executive order on climate-related financial risk Treasury is leading an EFSOC process to issue a report to the president on Member agency efforts to integrate consideration of climate-related risk in their policies and programs This assessment will include reporting on any actions the council recommends to mitigate risks to financial stability and Enhanced climate-related disclosures and you should expect to see this report and assessment in the weeks ahead Second treasury is co-chairing with China the G20 sustainable finance working group where we are working with our G20 counterparts To improve information on climate-related financial risks and opportunities to enhance the interoperability of tools and approaches To align investments to climate goals and to encourage the multilateral development banks to align their operations with the goals of the Paris Agreement And finally treasury is working with the leadership of the multilateral development banks directly to raise the ambition of their private climate finance mobilization targets to increase MDB support to address technology risk in developing countries to enhance developing country domestic green bond markets and to increase support for climate adaptation work among other issues Strategic de-risking of private capital for climate purposes must become a bigger part of the MDB agenda More generally of course the Biden administration has proposed an historic climate investment agenda Represented most immediately in the bipartisan infrastructure deal and current reconciliation proposals Both packages would lead to historic amounts of public capital for mitigation and adaptation in adaptation Through for example increasing the resiliency of our infrastructure to a change in climate Constructing thousands of miles of new transmission transmission lines to accommodate the addition of more renewable energy And investing in a nationwide electric vehicle charging network These investments represent the best chance we have to turbocharge the US economy towards a low carbon future and to position our industry and job base For strong and sustained growth for the decades ahead and we call upon Congress to pass the bipartisan infrastructure deal and the president's FY 22 budget as soon as possible But ultimately our success in confronting in both confronting the climate challenge and in harnessing the economic Opportunities embedded in the net zero transition will be about how fast private markets move and adjust We know that and we applaud the leadership of those firms that are leading the charge and we encourage those Who are still sitting on the fence to recognize the pace and Inevitability of the transition of folding it unfolding around us and to take quick and decisive action Thanks very much again for the opportunity to speak with you today Well, that was a terrific introduction by John. So it's false to me to introduce our terrific panel today Celine Herber the group chief sustainable officer for HSBC Torben Morgan Peterson the chief executive of pension Denmark and Leslie Mazgolf vice president the CFO of the New Development Bank in China So before getting into the meat of this, I really want to ask you or question about this sort of motivation Could you briefly share with us? What motivates you to work to accelerate climate adaptation within finance? Maybe silly if I start with you at first And hi view great to join for the panel today and I think what motivates me I mean, I've actually recently switched from you know a decade of working one of the big four and in a similar kind of Sustainability leadership role into the group chief sustainability officer role at HSBC And and for me it was a no-brainer because finance is really what shapes the future You we've got the biggest industrial transformation ahead in the next decade across every sector Where finance goes where money goes and HSBC is a bank, you know We have such a big footprint in emerging markets where the challenge Is going to be the greatest in terms of the decarbonisation pathway ahead and if you look at future emissions growth 90% of that is an emerging market. So You know a very exciting opportunity to get a systemic shift in finance, obviously Torben Thank you both to you and also to General motion for this very inspiring introduction and Seline pointed out the To achieve the business goals from the Paris Accord We have to mobilize private capital and large scale which fits actually very well into the purposes and Goals for a long term investor like a pension fund like like ours and to make a little that should give you more less a philosophical Example, I mean a young member entering into Denmark's pension scheme this year Maybe a 20 year old the female carpenter and she will retire in 50th time that means Something about 27 27 July and as she has a female she probably will have a Life expectancy for a further 30 years. So she will be around in my patient scheme to the To the other end of this Sensory so we are actually visiting on a very long term basis and we now I want to provide her with a Nice good patient with she retires but also to Make my contribution to make sure that she can retire in and in a world Which is worth living in so to say so for a long term a business like us. I think we have an extra level of Obligations to a focus on the the impact of what we're doing and the lovely But not surprisingly the green decision is not only a challenge for mankind is also as you mentioned in your introduction you and Very attractive opportunity for long-term a business like us especially in an environment where we are confronted with zero or minus interest rates level and and stock markets Getting quite expensive during the last Few years. So actually looking for attorneys the green decision opens up a very attractive investment universe also for those of For those in in my industry, we may be not that convinced of the necessity of taking Taking on the climate situation, but from a purely as an investment perspective If you ask the CIOs you will also get a strong support to our engagement in this area That's terrific. Well, that's a really inspiring way to start by thinking about the next the rest of this century Leslie if I just pick up with you about some motivation and your own contribution Thank you very much you for this opportunity every day When I wake up and we deal here as a new development bank with the large emerging markets of Brazil Russia India China and South Africa. I am from South Africa as you might know and these issue issues are deeply Personally if you like, you know in South Africa, we still have a energy grid system. That's 90% dependent on coal If I look at all of these provinces where the coal mines where the the coal fire power stations are located I mean, I can just see the dislocation and the immense social and economic and employment impacts that the climate transition Will have in the country where I'm from we already have North of 30% official unemployment in South Africa So the potential of further dislocation and potential massive even social and other Instability arising from a transition that is not potentially just so that's one of the key issues I would like to flag in our conversation today the need to ensure that the principle of what is called the just transition in the Paris Agreement on Climate change that the frameworks in that the detail is is ironed out because I would argue you that as much as the Investor community have now Incorporated climate risk into their investment decision-making. I think social inequality is not really seen also as as important a systemic risk going forward That's super. Well, it may be just reflecting on John's comments I mean, I think John held out of three challenges The first was to reform and evolve the development banks Role to do more in emerging markets was to mobilise capsule on a global scale to it for investment and third to enhance the data and Disclosures so maybe let's say if I can turn to you first as you think about the role the development banks can play How can you know how how are you thinking about John's rallying call for and you know developments to do more? I Think John will be spot-on that we have to go back to the drawing boards you to a to Evaluate how effective our existing institutions are and whether the design of the entire business model in the development Finance world ought to be re-looked at As you know, there's a very high degree of consensus that the focus of multilateral banks ought to shift away from direct lending and more to be de-risking machines to be To use our high credit worthiness if you like to improve the risk return profile in Sustainable infrastructure projects so that we can crowd in the large pools of institutional investor money We have battled for years though to resolve this conundrum you there's been this such a high degree of consensus that Mobilisation of our private sector capital has to be at the centre of this agenda We just have not been successful yet in designing new financial instruments in coming up with new finance solutions to be able to do that For example multilateral banks because we are all either double a plus or triple a rated We can do considerably more credit enhancement where instead of us financing project directly We take the first loss guarantee piece if you like in the capital stack and then enable Institutional investors to come in and take the senior debt piece Which then will be priced lower because of the lower risk and in that way We can improve a lot more funding to developing countries in short What I'm saying is that we need to go back to first principles to ask some of the basic questions whether the way We are structured at the moment is optimal whether there isn't scope for us to redesign our existing Institutions so the couple of days ago I heard in one of the webinars that Kenneth Rogoff for example argues that need a dedicated world Carbon Bank because he's arguing with many others that the existing institutions are not suitably Sort of organized to take on this new global Challenge to lead the world towards a lot of carbon future because we have so many other mandates as part of our overall ambition So that would be my my first comment That's very helpful. Leslie, but it's the lean Maybe if I could ask you to respond to John's second challenge, which was around data and disclosure clearly It's improving but as you sit, you know leading a bank's effort What where do you think it needs to go next and what are you looking for? Yeah, well, I'm let's start with where banks are in terms of their headline commitments right now because there's been a huge kind of Shift recently we've got I think if we look at the Glasgow financial alliance for net zero Which is kind of ahead of the COP meeting and something like five weeks time now I think we have something like 53 banks now who've committed to net zero as part of that group, right? And so what does it mean as a bank when you commit to net zero again? We all know really the fundamental thing is around finance emissions, right? And so we're actually committing that our finance emissions are going to reach net zero before 2050, which is massive That's a transformation right of any single bank in terms of the way it does financing and investment You know, so when I look at the bank that I'm in that means, you know, what does that mean for global banking? What does it mean for global markets for commercial banking where we kind of bank the kind of bid market? clients for wealth, you know for mass affluent wealth for kind of ultra high net worth for asset management Thinking about the implications of transitioning that portfolio are huge and the starting point for us And this probably builds on where Leslie was going in terms of, you know The inclusive transition that the starting point for us has to be on working in partnership with our clients on that massive industrial Transformation ahead, right? It's it's investment to finance that transition with divestment as a very last resort And so to be able to do that Well, what does that mean? We've made the commitment but it now means we need to start engaging with all of our, you know Big institutional clients on their climate transition plans, right? So we need to be able to judge the validity of those plans to advise them on the validity to offer financing instruments to incentivize performance around KPIs that showcase decarbonization to help them finance You know interesting new climate tech M&A projects for example or sustainable infrastructure investments So it's really a whole set of new capability We need to build into the bank and on the data side that's key because you know to be able to assess where clients are in terms of the transition plans We need good data. We're probably getting that quite well for some of the kind of largest clients within global banking But when we start to kind of go down the level at HSBC if I think about oil and gas sector clients We've got 25% of state owned public sector owned You know and private and the data challenge is much harder there And then you go all the way down into the SMEs and MSMEs as well So I think data is going to be key not just in terms of what you know The kind of what the emissions are but also client transition what their plans are how they're integrating it into business models And then being able to aggregate that all up at a portfolio level So we can look at over the years are we meeting our targets across sectors in terms of our decarbonization pathways? So huge help needed there and also in terms of standardization on what data because we have to be asking for the same requests as all of our peers and All of the asset managers as well Super and then talk about John also alluded to a point you made about The investment opportunities and risk and mobilizing on a global playbook The interested in your perspectives on that and in particular as one of the leading European firms You know, are you holding emerging market investments to the same standards as the ones in Europe? Or how are you thinking through the global dimension to your portfolio? Well, I certainly agree with with with your motion and I can also unless it's a point on the Need to let's say develop the concept in the development banks to be become extracted for partners and risk sharing partners When we are talking about the business in the image markets, I think that the the all I think the way forward in this area is to further develop the concept of the blended finance vehicles which have been in use up for a few years in number of countries in Denmark we have established a Blender finance doctor where we are working together with the the Danish Ministers of Foreign Affairs They're a DFI Provides 50% of capital to a doctor where we provide a Rich share program very similar to what the less dimension where the government Part of the structure has some kind of first-law position But at the end of the day they might end up with a larger return actually on the investment and then we have because we have traded away some of the risk The hate by giving away some of the the upside in the structure and by this Approach we can mobilize very large pools of private capital because just We end up with a risk control profile, which is very similar to what you Perceived is possible in in Europe US and we've actually been able to invest in a number of very and I say promising projects in Immersive markets just to mention one of them the Lake Turkana with park in Kenya, which is now the largest Offshore wind park in Africa riding in Kenya with I think 20% of Guinness power Demand is Financed in this structure. So we as a Data space because we actually now a co-owner of a large wind farm in In Kenya because the overall restructure has been designed in a say I think quite an upturned way and I think that's the way going forward and I don't give a small mark to to less this intervention. Well, I certainly agree that we have to find ways to get Developer banks involved and even a large scale, but I think I will be a little bit skeptical on your idea of Let's say a total redesign of the solution structure.  We have short time. I mean 2030 is eight nine years down the road. I don't think we should waste our time with complicated the redesign of its usual Institutions that takes tons of time. I think we should use the existing structure and Find ways although they may not be on the long-term optimal, but although Ritual to to to get To three seven structures we can find as necessary the viscous in especially real better see and an adaption Interstruct say both emerging markets, but also in Europe US and I think in this perspective We should be as investors be very optimistic on all the co-investment Abusages created by both the the Biden administration's infrastructure plan As mentioned by John one also By the even Even as as ambitious a European plan by the European Commission Where you have put up 750 billion euros to invest in Among other things the the green transition in Europe and for the first time This this program is financed by issuing European bonds It's backed up by EU not by the individual message. We see a very bold step in making a transforming the European Union to be a active player in Providing a let's say fiscal stimulus is also providing a finance to To infrastructure program. So I think that we have actually we have a quite soft spot now We have plenty of funding from public sources available in us in europe We have the developer banks Being ready to step in at the last scale in the markets and we have options like mine Seeing very effective opportunities in this area. So I think the The final message is so we should now move from all these nice talks In the web and other places and make some concrete actions. I mean, we are in a position now We have to be doers not talkers Super well, I've talked and I think that's a very good challenge. So let's move to sort of doing rather than talking here But can I just give a note to everyone listening in today? If there's any questions you would like me to ask the panelists feel free to sort of pop in your questions into the link So maybe Selina fighting come on to this sort of you know doing So one topic we were debating is Um, what are the key friction points? Which are slowing down or impeding capital flowing to transition finance? Which you know, you know, what if like so if I may turn to you If you had one idea or or maybe two ideas of of areas of friction Which you think we can address to speed up or expand the pace of capital flowing to transition from that So maybe Selina if I start to you and then I'll come to you Leslie I mean, I probably would I think so it's a good question But I probably would kind of first start by building on what both what leslie and torban said Which is you know public especially when we're looking at emerging market finance You know, we would love to invest more in sustainable infrastructure You know the challenge the long challenge has been around for a long time has been Again the lack of a bankable big enough pipeline of sustainable infrastructure projects, right? And so that comes into the role of the mdbs again And it's what leslie touched upon in the beginning because actually, you know, mdbs have limited balance sheets So rather than focusing on kind of direct kind of lending Right, the more that we can think about public finance mechanisms to mitigate risks and to help develop the pipeline itself in terms of technical assistance And type, you know project facilities and things like that that can help In a way kind of open the pipeline and structure the right kind of deals We're working With a number of different actors including the i of c o e c d climate policy institute and others on a new Label that's going to be launched called fast in from which is all about coming up with a labeling for the sustainable infrastructure Types of investments to create a more liquid asset class there with bankable projects And a kind of tech platform Which number of tech partners are helping with as well to to then kind of almost get all the project financiers together in this Particular space and and the idea really is we want to get to a point where any You know any sustainable infrastructure asset who's got that kind of common label which builds on the eu taxonomy There's just a bit more clarity of investments And then we have pfms coming in to kind of back that as well I mean for me the other side is you know, there's also a big technology play We've got if you think about technologies 2030 up to 2030 we've kind of sold for those technologies is about kind of scaling what we kind of have From 2030 to 2040 to 2050 by 2050 half of those technologies aren't yet kind of In development or a protest type stage. So there's another big You know role here for financiers to think about those deep decarbonization technologies and how can we bring them from Kind of venture stage through growth stage and upwards so that they can actually be deployed in terms of Transition and that's a completely different type of finance. So the kind of things that we're getting involved in there include project finance public private partnerships In the spaces like, you know, green hydrogen long-term battery storage green system aviation fuels But also we're looking at the venture ecosystem And actually setting up there's a lot of interest now in climate tech Which is the kind of the 2020s reinvention of the 20 2000s, you know clean tech Which was a very monolithic area around energy climate tech cuts across all of the different sectors. It's the fastest growing Investment theme within the venture capital community. It's about scaling these types of Companies it's 16 billion. I think in the first half of this year of investment in that climate tech space So we're starting to look at we're launching a new Venture growth around how we help those climate tech companies grow and a number of different funds In our asset management group for that space as well. So there are many different areas But I just focus on sustainable infrastructure and climate tech to give a starter That's right. Fantastic. So Leslie biggest source of friction and opportunities to solve it The first one Selina's already covered which is the need for a standardized harmonized Approach to what is sustainable infrastructure so that investors Institutional investors and so on can have confidence and comfort that if something is labeled Sustainable that it is indeed sustainable and that it meets their ESG criteria so the creation of a A distinct asset class as Selin mentioned is one of the key friction points And industry as she mentioned to be already working on that the second key point as I mentioned earlier on is that most investment So when you look at the emerging markets rather many of them suffer from the fact that they are lower down on the Credit spectrum and they do not meet the regulatory requirements of large institutional Investors so playing this this role this credit enhancement role of multilateral banks is a very very Peace we need to increasingly as I said move away from our focus on direct lending to use our balance sheet much more through Credit enhancement the third one is as you know Institutional investors would not invest in one single project in one country like in a solar project in Egypt or in South Africa It would be much more efficient to do those investment on a portfolio basis and again There's successful experiments It's successful investment platforms in this regard the IFC for example have a particular platform called mcpp The European Bank for reconstruction development have similar type of approaches The it will be much more effective for us to find the necessary investment platforms to crowd in investments on a portfolio basis and also I would argue Thirdly you that the insurance and the reinsurance industry also offers great Potential there's risk by bearing capacity the insurance industry in particular their business model is about understanding risk We need to make greater use as a development finance industry to work closely with the The insurance and and reinsurance industry and in that regard we have the political risk coverage Vehicle called mega for example, which sits in the world bank, but it only serves the world bank If you like we could use a political risk coverage mechanism more broadly for the mdb system So taking a view about the multilateral banks as a system and how we can nurture The complementarities and the comparative advantages of each of the individual institutions And putting that to more effective for use and maybe just finally I agree fully with torban before we create new institutions. We should make our existing institutions more Effective the question though is are they all still fit for purpose? And is there a need for some re-engineering was more the question I was posing Super well, that's really helpful. That's a great touch of ideas I mean torban maybe came back to the because so the question was sort of biggest frictions and ways to to try and smooth them out in your view Well, I think that the Leslie Potter that report the element to to also reach out to the insurance industry to Use use their capacities to mitigate the certain risks where we are investing with markets. We in general are a big use of We got for the world bank, and it's I think it's a relatively effective also Host effective way to get rid of some of the risk which we can't handle. I mean the political risk type of Issues, and I think I agree with Leslie. Maybe we should make the insurance element in the investing in those long term infrastructure projects more visible and the more Easy accessible for investors. So we will be presented project Our group of measures we are already at from the very beginning and included the design of proper insurance elements In the structure that could be a mitigator I also think that it's important to think of As the public private partnership dimension My our experience investing in which markets that when we are investing together with Governments as from as I said the Danish government or other European governments We have a very strong Maybe someone out there would not be that frightened to to to to To to to make sense to to have a relationship to have a Conflict with a small Danish business fund, but if they also have at the same time a conflict with the government Which is a big supplier of of aid the picture is somewhat different So investing as a privacy together with the government is also and it's not that easy to quantify But it's a very I think important risk mitigator Parameter and maybe it should be used in the even the larger scale because Not just because of To support us but because this is a way to get leverage to the the public funding available for For eight eight program in the emerging market, so in general think that which is fully in line with the let's say the values of world government forum. We should Maybe explore Make a deep dive into the perspective of even more comprehensive public-private approach to Generate the capital for relevant interest of the policy in which markets Thank you. Torben. That's very helpful So one question I get asked a lot is that you know finance as the three of you have argued today is pivoting And and I think in particular the last 12 months and starting to see the opportunities Not just the risks of climate finance climate change, but public policy is still Um, not pivoting as fast and in particular, I think we can all agree that many democracy struggle between Solving today's problems and tomorrow's carbon taxes is a good example where very few democracies have have gotten in place If you had one big idea of where of public policy, which would help the flow of private capital Uh, or would help the flow of capital. What what might that be? Maybe torben if I can start with you as you're on camera So so it's asking what were Where the challenge is a public policy is not always consistent with the flow of capital to net zero What would more would you like to see from the european government for instance to get to help capital to flow? From from my point of view, I think that we have strong issues in europe I mean the european investment bank And also the european bank for reconstruction development based in in russia are very strong and It's usually a long track record and a strong legacy and they have A strong and I say engagement and commitments to facilitate the same private investments in this area So I don't think as much before we we we're not in a lack of institutions But maybe we should uh, let's say Make A little bit more Clear and and if from a european perspective, you might have the point that There have been in the recent less than two years We have really too much focus on Restarting the european economy and the usually The big recovery plan for this purpose and maybe too little How the european investment bank and other institutions can Increase their support for all the necessary listeners in in the Emergency market. So yeah, I think you have a point there. Yeah Okay Seeing any policy risks, which you think has slowing down the flow of capital to transition I mean, I think those of us working on climate policy know It's like a whole landscape of policy levers we need to be using right and You know starting with the macro one, which is actually does the government, you know You know, does it have a net zero by 2050 target in line with science? And how does that flow down towards sectoral level strategies and policies, right? And how robust does that flow down in terms of a roadmap? So I think, you know, we've kind of There's a lot there. I think in terms of doing the day job It's helpful, you know Obviously for banks and those that need to manage this transition to have a disclosure mandate So we get the data we need from our clients In a clearer way to be able to kind of engage with them And track how that's happening and really kind of make some judgments around the transition And the validity of the transition I mean, the other thing also we're talking about a lot about emerging countries And I think, you know, in terms of moving the energy mix We're going to see some interesting conversations happening at Cop and five weeks But you know, there's some some more movement around now around the support that can be provided between east west and north and south around Early coal retirement, right? Because there's a move towards the phase updates of 2030 OECD 2040 non OECD But actually do need an element of Of evaded coal in the mix after 2040 But actually how do you retire effectively all of those young coal assets and many Asian economies, right? You know, in many cases it's only 10 years old And actually what support can be provided so that we we actually get a kind of managed transition in that respect And there's some really interesting kind of public private financing mechanisms that are coming through there. So Yeah, a variety of answers. I can't give you the one silver bullet. I'm afraid High carbon price would be nice, but we know that You know, there is no silver bullet And so maybe turning to uh lesbians, you know, what are the most You know critical issues in public policy that you would you would see would help the flow of capital in in your area I think firstly, um, as you know, uh, many governments now in half of the world's gdp Produced in countries that have net zero Targets a net zero commitment is clearly a very important one and as we go towards cop26 we end to see that number of countries Increasing, however, what is required as you know, you is for that to be codified in transition plans There are for example focused on 2030 and even earlier So much more detailed level granular plans are required at the public policy level Which will inspire the change that needs to happen in the rest of the economy The second biggest gap I would argue you is in the space of regulation and supervision I mean, as you know, there's already a discussion among central banks that came out recently with the Book on green swan where they effectively argued that the role and mandate of central banks have to be reconfigured Monetary policy and the way interest rates are set have to be geared towards the net zero World in a similar way these rules of the game will help the private sector to be To act within the newly defined rules and then finally, I mean I would also Again want to reemphasize the point I made around the just Transition I think that we are potentially going to have significant Transitional challenges if you like when we look at the impact on emerging markets I mean as you know and and Tobin already highlighted about the Europe I'm not say Europe is probably the leader out there undisputed climate leader with respect to the sophistication of the policy that have been developed already have for example a transition fund I don't know of many other or any other sort of continents or regions where there are such detailed plans in place And the reason why emphasize this is because whilst you can retire coal plants in Europe in many parts of Africa. We are still so dependent on those coal fire jobs


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Today, I want to share with you a Fannie Mae report that just came out that actually shows that next year is going to be worse than 2008. And I'm not talking about percentages compared to last year's crazy year. I'm talking about actual numbers that are worse than 2008. And of course, I'm going to give you the positive spin on this and what you can do as a real estate agent and or real estate investor to go out there and continue crushing it. But for now, I want to take you back to March 17th of this year, 2022, when I posted a video that was titled Prepare for the upcoming housing crash. And I'm here today to prepare you for the massive market shift that we are going to experience in the near future. Now, right now as we speak, I'm really getting that 2004 feeling when prices were at all time highs, gas hit $100 a barrel, which we just saw. We've got zero inventory inflation is through the roof interest rates are rock bottom. And we have more real estate agents than we've ever had in history. Now, you have to realize that back then the market was still blowing and going interest rates were only at 3.9% that day. So they haven't gotten into the fours and fives and sixes and eventually where we are now, which is in the sevens. So since the market was still on fire at the time I had tons of comments on that video, you can go and read those comments. I'm going to post a link to the video at the end of this video. But so many people are saying you're crazy. It's not going to be another crash. It's not going to be 2008 and all this stuff. And they brought up lots of good points. And it's very true that this is really different than 2008. And I think the biggest difference is lending restrictions. The restrictions that they put on lending after 2008 that really put us in a good position so that when that inevitable crash does happen like what we're experiencing the front end of now, we're not going to go as in a deep and dark of a hole as we went in 2008. Now, let me show you this Fannie Mae report that gives their forecast of 2023 as you gently tap the like button for the YouTube algorithm. Now, here's the Fannie Mae report of the housing forecast October 2022. You can see it has total housing start, single family, one unit multifamily, total home sales, new single family and existing home sales. So we're going to pay attention to the existing home sales right here. As you can see, it shows the 6.1 million sales that happened last year in 2021. It's got us forecasted to end the year this year with a little over 5 million sales, 5,021,000. And then boom, in 2023, Fannie Mae has the forecast for existing home sales to be 3.928 million sales. Now, if we go back to 2008, that was the worst year we had in terms of transactions through the entire great recession of the late 2000s. And in 2008, we recorded 4 million transactions of existing home sales. So what they're predicting right here is literally worse, lower transactions than we had in 2008. So if you go back to the chart, you look at 2021 existing home sales, 6.1 million. That was up 8.5% from the year prior. 2022, they're looking at being down 17% from that year. And then 2023 is going to be down even a further 21.8%. Now, I think one thing to understand here is that 2021 was not a benchmark. It was an incredibly abnormal year. This year, we're right in line with our 2019 numbers and really close to the historical average in terms of number of transactions. Also a nice note is that real estate agents commission pool is 25 billion more this year in 2022 than it was in 2019. So really, if you look at this year, 2022, it's really been an incredible year, right? Where we've had transactions that were right there really close to the historical average, while prices were much higher than any time in history. We hit that all time high and then we've come down from the top and real estate agents have made more money, way more money than they made in 2019. But when you look at 2023, if what they're saying is true and we have a 22% decrease from this year, that's 22% off of the historical average. And that tells me that if we're actually going to have that kind of year, if this actually comes true, then next year is going to be what I'm going to call the year of amazing opportunities. Because if you go back to 2008 and look at everybody that went through that moment, including myself, who lost everything, went bankrupt, a lot of people had tons of financial trouble through that moment. And they think back of that whole situation and every single one of them says, I know exactly what I would do next time this happens. I guarantee you every person that went through that is looking at this current situation licking their chops. They're thinking, here we go right here. This is a different situation. It's not like 2008. Number one, it's not catching us off guard. This has been totally telegraphed. We could see this coming a mile away, right? And we can 100% prepare for this and get ready to take advantage of these amazing opportunities. Amazing opportunities I'm talking about for real estate agents and real estate investors. For real estate agents, you need to think about this. And this should always be your motto. Okay? When you wake up in the morning, if your goal is to go out and create new relationships, not close deals, but to go out and create new relationships in the market every day, reaching out to as many people as you can, thinking of yourself as a community worker, doing community outreach as a volunteer worker to see what you can do to help people, get to know people, not transactions. When your goal is, how many new relationships can I stack up every day, regardless of what the market's doing? Then the market's never slow for you because every day your goal is relationships, relationships, relationships. How many kind of put in place? And as a byproduct of going out there and working super hard to get your name out there, put yourself out there, talk to as many people as possible with whatever your methods are and lead generation, then as a byproduct, you're going to go out there and close so many deals, whatever that full potential is. Your full potential is going to be a result of you talking to as many people as you can with the time allotted. So if you look at a lot of the really great real estate agents, most of them, okay, went through a downturn market and came back stronger, five, 10 times stronger. It's because these down moments are much needed in a real estate agent's career and able to create the foundation needed to really scale as the market rebounds. There's a 100% chance, ladies and gentlemen, that the market is going to rebound incredibly strong. It's just a matter of when. But in the meantime, let's talk to as many people as we can and close as many deals as we can. Deals are not going to stop. And I guarantee you, we're going to lose an equal percentage of agents that's going to create what? The same amount of transactions per agent of the ones that are still in the business.  If you got to go somewhere else to pay your bills, that's fine. But don't quit real estate. If you're in the fortunate position where you don't have to go anywhere else to pay your bills, you can hang in there and really make it happen. Let's take it to the moon.  As far as real estate investors, listen, there's going to be some massive opportunities next year, some massive buying opportunities. And what you should be doing is you should be watching the market, watching all the deals that come through, keep your fillers out and make sure you've got your hands on every possible deal. What you should be doing is stacking up cash and watching the market. As you see a good deal come through, the cash flow looks great. Boom, pick up that deal.  You need to buy it at the incredibly rock bottom, 50 cents on the dollar price right now. Now I'm in the middle of four flips right the second. I'm still buying and flipping, but I've turned down way more flips. Normally I take every flip just about, but here lately I've turned down a lot of flips because it wasn't quite the best situation where I didn't know exactly what that profit was going to be at the end of the day and I turned those down. I've still got four that I feel really good about right this second and I'm still picking up rental properties. I'm also stacking cash right now and I'm really looking forward to over the next six to 12 months seeing what kind of deals actually pop up that I could take advantage of. So again, there's 100% chance this thing's going to rebound. Next year is going to be an incredible year. I'm demonet right now, year of the most incredible opportunities to not only build your real estate business, but also build your real estate portfolio. One thing you should also be doing right now is doubling down on what has been working and get rid of the things that haven't been working is great. So when the market's going really well, you're out here doing everything and everything seems to be working.  Get rid of those items, those activities that aren't doing as well. Get rid of those and double down on what is really working the best for you right now. And I want you to go all in. Give me your thoughts in the comments. Let me know if there's anything in the world I could do for you. Click that subscribe button and we'll see you on the next video. Let's go.


Good morning, welcome to CMC Markets on Friday the 30th of July and this quick look at the week ahead beginning the 2nd of August with me Michael Hueson. Before we get started let's just have a quick look back at the events of the past few days and after a poor start to the week Markets in Europe managed to pull off their lows as a consequence of two days of fairly strong company updates from the likes of UK banks, oil companies and obviously some very decent numbers from the US tech giants and these these strong earnings updates helped push the stock 600, the FTSE 250, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ to do record highs. However there does appear to be a little bit of end of week weakness starting to creep in and I think a large I think a large part of that is over concern about where equity markets are likely to go to next because I think when you literally look at this week's earnings announcements good as they have been I think one of the questions is after a fairly decent first half will the second half of the year be equally as positive? Now will European markets be able to sustain a six successive monthly gain and at the moment the jury is a little bit out on that if we say for example look at the FTSE 100 we can see that we are starting to see a little bit of weakness today after the decent gains from Wednesday and Thursday and if we look at the monthly chart there are signs that we're starting to top out a little bit with fairly decent supported around about 6,800 whereas we're really struggling to crack above 7150 and 7170 and if we look at say for example similar moves on the German DAX it's a similar sort of story when it comes to a little bit of a topping out pattern this is the daily chart we look at the weekly chart or the monthly chart rather and again we've made an incremental new high but it looks as if we could well finish the month lower and I think that really is the biggest concern going forward that momentum is starting to run out of steam and we could be on the cusp of potentially a little bit of a move towards the downside alternatively we could just continue this sideways range that we've been in over the course of the past few weeks more worryingly the Nikkei is showing signs of rolling over and I think that more than anything is a bigger concern the fact that since February the highs have been getting lower and the lows have started to get a little bit the reaction of the lows hasn't been anywhere near as positive I think the big level on the on the Nikkei is around about 27,000, 27,100 that's going to be I think a very key level over the course of the next few days if we break below that then we could well see further weakness in the Nikkei 225 and I think a lot will depend on the after effects of this week's events in China markets in Europe I think I've opened I've opened obviously opened lower today seen a little bit of end of week weakness end of month weakness there was some talk that Chinese regulators were softening their positioning on regulation over concerns about the extent of the recent sell-off that we've seen in Chinese markets and if that is their intention in softening the position softening the rhetoric doesn't appear to be working the reality is I think the recent crackdown by China has let the genie out of the bottle and confidence appears to have shifted so I think people will be reluctant to put money back into Chinese markets or those stocks that are particularly exposed to Chinese regulatory scrutiny without China putting a little bit of meat on the bones of what they were outlining or what they were indicating in recent commentary the damage to confidence may be an awful lot harder to repair given recent events so we're coming into August against a backdrop of a little bit of uncertainty about the regulatory framework in China obviously the really bumper earnings announcements that we've seen from the likes of Microsoft Apple and Alphabet were very very positive but it's prompted the question how does how do they improve on that and obviously Amazon's numbers came in below expectations even so they still managed to post three successive quarters of revenues well in excess of a hundred billion dollars so I suppose it really depends on your perspective I think when we're talking about tops and bottoms highs and lows and what have you let's just look at the price action and the price action is telling me that we're in a range if we basically knock that trend line out there the bottom of that range for the FTSE 100 is 6800 fairly decent support the top of that range is anywhere between 7150 and 7170 so at the moment we're still in a bit of a range the S&P 500 is still very much in its uptrend even if there is a perception that we could roll back down to this line here the highs are still getting higher the lows are still getting higher so US markets still remain in an uptrend so at the moment there are no signs that the bubble as it is if you whatever however you want to describe it is starting to look if it's going to pop so for the time being it's pretty much as you were continue to play the range now obviously if we look at the NASDAQ we've seen a very sharp reversal there and there is a concern that the extent of that fall we really need to see the NASDAQ start to make new highs so the key support for me on the NASDAQ is this low here it's around about 14780 if we break below that then obviously that then opens up this low down here let's not forget it's basically the trend is your friend so when we're following and looking at what markets are looking to do basically just watch the underlying trend so there's my trend line for the NASDAQ we break below that line then we could we'll see a sharper correction towards the downside and that is important in technical analysis when all else fails stick with the technicals because they are the best arbiter I think in terms of market direction now we've seen a big week for dollar weakness and that's significant as we look ahead towards the payroll's report which is coming up on the 6th of August and that's going to be my main focus I think over the course of the next few days it's the June payroll's report July payroll's report particularly given the fact the US second quarter GDP came in 2 percent below expectations you know it came in at six and a half percent now that's not too shabby under normal circumstances unfortunately we're not living in normal circumstances there's a pandemic raging and the expectation was we'd get an eight and a half percent expansion moreover weekly jobless claims aren't coming down anywhere near as fast as you'd like them to come down they're still anchoring around 400 000 when you've got nine million vacancies in the US economy you've got to ask yourself why those vacancies aren't getting filled even and I think that's one of the key concerns that the Federal Reserve has with respect to the US labor market in which is causing them to be very very dovish when it comes to the recent rise in CPI, PPI and PCE inflation repressures now the June jobs report turned out to be a much better report than expected on the headline number and that's what I mean the headline number was much better 850 000 jobs it was a decent improvement but it didn't tell us too much about the overall state of the US labor market in terms of how quickly those US workers who've dropped out of the workforce since February last year are likely to come back so what do I mean by that well the US participation rate remained unchanged at 61.6 percent that's still almost 2 percent below where it was pre-pandemic 63.4 percent so when you translate that into real numbers that's seven million people who are no longer in the labor force looking for work the participation rate and you know when are they going to come back and I think that's the big unknown we know that New York Fed President John Williams is one member concerned about the lackluster rebound in the participation rate it has rebounded from the lows of the pandemic when it was around about 60.3 percent 61.6 but it still remains below the levels that we saw in February 2020 so I think in an effort to prompt more workers back into the workforce some US states are phasing out already some of the emergency benefits brought in as a result of the pandemic and in an attempt to force more people back to work now all of these benefits expire in September so we should get a better indication there hopefully as Delta variant cases start to roll over and vaccine rates increase but at the moment the US is experiencing a pandemic of the unvaccinated and that's holding back economic activity so I think the big question is how many of these seven million have retired early and no longer intend to come back how many have set up their own businesses and how many intend to come back to the workforce and quite simply it's too early to know the answer to that question and I think that really reflects why the Federal Reserve was as non-committal this week when it came to any type of discussion about a tapering debate and in terms of the amount of tapering because 120 billion dollars a month is quite a lot but even if you reduce it by 20 billion it sends a signal that the process is starting but they can reduce it by 10 billion a month and it can still go on the extra asset purchases for another 12 months after that so I think the tapering debate is a little bit of a red herring more than anything else and I think one of the things that Powell said this week was quite interesting when he said the Fed is a ways away from raising interest rates which you know sort of flies in the face of what Bostick and Bullard are saying they expect to see a rate rise by the end of the next year we'll just have to wait and see we just don't know and that will explain why the dollar has come off as much as it has over the course of the past week and that's simply on the basis that weaker economic data GDP weaker jobless claims slightly higher and it's pushed back to tapering but tapering discussion potentially towards the end of this year probably at the earliest and as a result the dollar is weaker as a consequence of that and that's why US Treasury yields are now 125 and well below 1.5% and we can look at the trend here you know it's quite clear the US 10 year yield is around about 124 down two basis points on the day you've also got as well above the lows of 1260 on the 20th of July but the direction of travel here is quite clear lower highs lower lows the trend for US yields on the long end appears to be lower and that's probably not going to be so great for US investment banks returns in terms of the yield curve the yield curve is starting to flatten again so that is going to be a worry certainly I think in terms of bank earnings more broadly we've also got a Bank of England meeting next week I'm not really expecting too much from that despite the recent hawkishness from Deputy Governor Dave Ramston when he became one of the first NPC members to break ranks on a pairing bank a pairing back even of monetary stimulus I think with the departure of Andy Haldane as chief economist there was an expectation that the NPC would dissolve into groupthink basically just sign off the status quo in terms of monetary policy until the end of the year now we've got two Bank of England policymakers breaking ranks in the last few weeks to question the merits of current policy by articulating the prospect that the asset purchase program might need to be reined in now perhaps we shouldn't have been too surprised by Dave Ramston's being the first to break ranks because his comments about negative rates a year ago suggested he was less than keen on the prospect I'll give you a clue he's not the only one but I think his comments that the case for considering the pairing back stimulus measures was noteworthy it acknowledges the vaccine program has potentially changed the game and it was also notable that he was joined by external NPC member Michael Saunders and expressing rising concern at how transitory or otherwise inflation levels were likely to be now infection rates are starting to fall in the UK at the moment and obviously that is encouraging hospitalizations are continuing to age a little bit higher so there appears to be a little bit of a disconnect there so I think the big question I think as we look ahead towards the Bank of England policy decision on Thursday the 5th of August is while there's little likelihood of a change in policy at this meeting it will be noteworthy to see if there is any dissent on the pace of the bond buying program and where the bank the bank will look at slowing the pace of it nonetheless the big level on cable is this 140 level here I've outlined it with this red line all the way across the top here so if we are to trade higher on cable then we need to break above 140 20 in the short to medium term we certainly have seen some sterling strength when it comes to euro sterling but once again we're finding decent buying in and around that 85 area and then just below that we've got support of 8480 so we're range trading on euro sterling in the same way that we've range trading on the FTSE 100 the big the big support is around about 8470 interim at 85 and then we've got resistance at 8640 and 8730 so you really pays your money and you take your choice when it comes to euro sterling in terms of other economic data we do have services PMIs for July the latest flash PMIs from both the UK and the US who saw surprise falls in both during July and I think the main reason for the UK services activity decline to 57.8 was a direct consequence of the so-called pandemic I hate that expression but I mean I suppose it really just quite elegant elegantly disguised it describes the problem that businesses are having with respect to economic activity self-isolating due to being pinged by the NHS track and trace that business optimism about the economy is also declining as a consequence of that having said that pandemic restrictions will be will be eased on the 16th of august so that fully vaccinated people won't have to isolate if they are pinged by the track and trace app sadly there's still at least another two to three weeks to go before that comes into effect so those are the key economic indicators that we've got next week in terms of the earnings announcements we've got a fairly decent we've got a we've got a report from HSBC first half numbers from HSBC following on from the really good numbers that we saw from Barclays Lloyds and Nat West seen a resumption of dividend payments and buybacks from Nat West and Lloyds and what we've also seen is all three banks recycle reserves from non-performing loans back into the profits and that is very very welcome because it suggests that they're much more optimistic about the outlook for the UK economy going forward in terms of share price performance there hasn't been much to cheer about for HSBC shareholders as you can see from this graph here we've broken below the 200-day moving average we're in a downtrend we found a little bit of support around about 390 but to be quite honest the rebound looks fairly feeble so i think this week's first half numbers should be fairly indicative as to whether or not we've seen a proportionate pickup in its UK business i think we should have it fairly you know there was a fairly decent there was a fairly decent amount of profits generated in Q1 for the UK business of one billion dollars and certainly Barclays Lloyds and Nat West have shown some fairly decent returns from the UK businesses so you would expect the UK do the same in the first quarter it reported income of 5.8 billion dollars a decent increase on the same quarter last year most of the profits came from the bank's Asia business so given the turmoil that we've seen in Asia over the course of the past quarter in terms of the stock markets we'll be interested to see whether or not that will be sustained in Q1 the bank recycled 400 million dollars of last year's 8.8 billion dollars of loan loss provisions back onto the balance sheet so i'll be looking for evidence as to whether or not they feel confident enough to add to that recycling of funds and the global banking and markets division also had a decent Q1 though given the poor performance from US banks i wouldn't expect to see too much in the way of ripping up trees as a consequence of Q2 so i think HSBC has a very big bar to get over to break the downtrend that it's been in over the course of the past few weeks since those peaks at the end of May beginning of June which brings us on to BP Royal Dutch Shell it's posted some fairly good numbers last week if we look at BP we can see BP shares have been remarkably unimpressive in terms of their overall performance since June you would think that with oil prices up near three year highs that BP share price would reflect that it hasn't um it's out look for a cash flow surplus is based on an oil price of 45 dollars a barrel and yet we hear yet here we are at 75 dollars a barrel i think there's an awful lot of investor skepticism on the part of investors about BP's going green plan if we look at in terms of profits BP reported underlying replacement cost profit of 2.6 billion dollars in Q1 best performance since 2019 better refining margins higher oil prices company says it's looking to resume buybacks obviously shell announced a 2 billion dollar buyback last week BP did say that cash flow in the second quarter would be impacted by its 1.2 billion dollar Gulf of Mexico payment so that could impact its numbers for Q2 it could be it could be that shareholders aren't convinced that the plans for a 40% reduction in oil and gas production is anyway practical or achievable without hammering its margins and i think that's maybe why we've seen the decline in the share price since June transition towards green energy is likely to be expensive we know that having invested into wind power leases in the rfc it's clear what the direction of travel is while light source is also delivering on its projects for now the performance of the share price would suggest that the jury remains out so i think as the numbers when the numbers come out on Tuesday it'll be interesting to know whether or not we see further declines towards the lows that we saw in the middle of July it's certainly worth keeping an eye out for going to finish up with Rolls Royce it's been absolutely hammered by the pandemic given the fact that it relies on servicing airline jet engines for about 50% of its revenue and as planes haven't been flying hasn't been getting any revenue has been has seen a little bit of a rebound off its july lows um been a fairly uneventful three months for the Rolls Royce share price again much will depend on whether or not the aviation sector is able to get off the ground um in terms of resuming some level of normal flights now with British Airways already saying it's only going to be planning um around about 40% of capacity transatlantic over the course of the next over the rest of the year that does not seem likely and Rolls Royce is expecting engine flying hours for this year to come in around about 55% level from six months ago that number is starting to look ever more doubtful as we head in to year end so I think for me when you've got easy jet saying that they only saw Q3 flying 17% of their overall capacity I think we do need to be prepared potentially for a guidance uh change um at um this week's numbers for Rolls Royce but have a cook you know keep keep a close eye on the lows that we've seen back in January and back in July personally I think we're probably likely to continue to stay in the range that we've been in over the course of the past few months other items to keep an eye out for this week are Uber's latest numbers potentially AMC Entertainment Q2 numbers depending on who you believe their numbers could be out on the fourth of August fifth of August or the sixth of August um at the moment there's no potentially confirmed date for that but they are due we've got Games Maker Activision Blizzard they've had a fairly good year on the back of the fact that people have been staying home buying games and playing games on their consoles we've got Uber and we've got Beyond Meat so that's it for this week once again thank you very much for listening to my ramblings this week speak to you all the same time same place next week and don't forget to tune in to non-farm payrolls on Friday the 6th of August at 1 15 where I'll be covering numbers live as they hit the tape thank you very much