It is now time for oral questions. I recognize the leader of his Majesty's Loyal Opposition. Good morning, Mr. Speaker. First, I'd like to wish everybody a happy International Day of Francophony. The Premier likes to say the integrity commissioner cleared him 1,000% over his green belt grab. But you know what the Premier won't say? Whether or not he told the commissioner that developers were charged admission to the stag and doe. Speaker, the commissioner has said that his clearance at the time was, and I want to quote him, only as good as the information provided to me by the member or their staff. So, Speaker, my question is to the Premier. Did he disclose all of the details about these events to the integrity commissioner? On behalf of the government. Thank you very much, Mr. Speaker. The Premier has been working obviously with the commissioner on this, and the commissioner will continue his review of that, Mr. Speaker. At the same time, of course, we are going to continue to focus on the things that Ontarians have asked us to focus on, and that includes, of course, ensuring that we build more homes across the province of Ontario, ensuring that we continue to make important investments like the investment that we saw with Volkswagen. Mr. Congratulate the Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation Trade, and the Premier who have brought yet another important investment to the province of Ontario, which will see thousands of jobs coming to the province of Ontario, Mr. Speaker. This is a province that is moving in the right direction, Speaker. We are one of the leading jurisdictions when it comes to the automotive manufacturing of tomorrow, when it comes to batteries, and it is a whole of government approaches, which includes the Minister of Mine, which includes the Minister of Energy, the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing, the Finance Minister, the Labor Minister, the Education Minister, the Solicitor General, all of government working. Thank you very much. A supplementary question. Thank you, Speaker. I don't know, maybe the House Leader didn't hear my question, because I was asking about the Ford family stag and doe, and the Integrity Commissioner's investigation. And by the way, Speaker, there is so much evidence actually mounting that the Integrity Commissioner told us he can't get to it all at once, because he's so busy summoning witnesses. Expert after expert has proven that we have more than enough land to build affordable homes for people without paving over the green belt for overpriced luxury mansions. But this government doesn't like experts when they get in the way. Last week we learned that this government quietly muzzled the Green Belt Council so they couldn't speak out against the Premier's land grab. So my next question to the Premier is, what was his government so afraid the Council would say? Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing, Chair Clark. Thanks, Speaker. We appreciate the work of all of our members on all of our committees that affect the Ministry of Municipal Affairs, all of the stakeholders, including those members of the Green Belt Council. For months I attended those meetings and I worked collaboratively with the Council and will continue to do so as we move forward. But again, the Leader of the Opposition is fundamentally not talking about the problem in this province. The problem in our province is there's not enough homes to meet people's needs. There are a generation of sons, daughters, grandsons, granddaughters that have no path to home ownership. New Democrats will always stand against that. This government will continue to put plans, bills, regulations in place that get shovels in the ground. That's our commitment to the next generation. Here, here. Five years later and life is less affordable in this province under this government's watch. In 2018, this Premier promised Ontario that he would never touch the Green Belt. He swore up and down that he would protect it. Conservative promise made, Conservative promise broken. Now we risk losing vital farmland, a massive carbon sink, and a key protection against flooding, all so that a few well-connected insiders can make a profit. Concerned Ontarians, including those of us in the Official Opposition, have called on the federal government to intervene. So my question is to the Premier, will his government do the right thing and stop this unnecessary Green Belt grab, or do we need to wait for the feds to protect the land that he won't? Government House Leader. This must be the same federal government that promised in 2015 that they would stop the Pickering Airport and return that back to farmers and we still haven't seen that promise made and that promise kept by the federal government. This is the same, of course, Liberals and NDP Coalition that ripped thousands of acres away from farmers in the Rouge National Urban Park. Now when we were bringing the Rouge National Urban Park federally, they wanted to take farmers off the land, kick them off, and they wanted to reforest that entire area. In fact, the previous Liberal government evicted a generational farmer so that they could create a park 15 years later, only recently opened, Mr. Speaker. That is the record of the opposition. We are going to continue to ensure that the people of the province of Ontario have access to homes, Mr. Speaker. Generations have come to this province with the dream of home ownership and because of the work that we're doing, thousands, millions more are coming because they know they have the hope of a job and Mr. Speaker, with us, they're going to have their first home. This question, once again, will later be the opposition. Mr. Speaker, if you want to talk about housing, let's talk about how well this government's plan on housing has been going. It is harder than ever to find an affordable place to live in this province and homelessness is at a record high. In Toronto, on average, three unhoused people died every week last year. Three a week, that's 187 lives lost because this government didn't have the plan in place to ensure they had a safe and stable place to live. Mr. Speaker, if you're homeless in Toronto, your life expectancy is now half that of a housed person. That is not normal. Mr. Speaker, my question is to the Premier, will he bring back real rent control and invest urgently in the supportive housing we need to help prevent even one more life from being lost? Mr. Mitchell, parents and housing. There's a lot to unpack there, Mr. Speaker. I want to remind Ontarians, that every single time this government has brought forward progressive housing policy, one thing has happened. New Democrats have voted against it every single time. Even the Ontario big city mayors have joined us in asking the federal government to pay our fair share. There's one party that won't join our government in support of that, and that's New Democrats. In fact, let's lay it on the table. New Democrats want to tax affordable and non-profit housing. That's what they continue to stand up for. This side of the house and our members in front of me, our government will continue, continue to believe that non-profit and affordable housing... I don't know who said it. If it happens again, better not. Leader of the opposition. Speaker, New Democrats will always stand up for truly affordable places to live in this province. Thank you for that response. 32% less housing starts last year in this province. That's your record. And it's not just Toronto, Speaker. Order. Essex. Government side, come door. Milton, to Canada, to Timmins. We now have a homelessness crisis in every corner of this province. The Association of Municipalities of Ontario points to this conservative government's terrible policy and chronic ender investment. Speaker, why is the government sitting on $6.4 billion while people are falling into desperation without safe and stable homes to live in? Well, there's housing. Speaker, there are two people that I want to talk about right now. Two tremendous... To steal a phrase from the Premier, two true champions for municipal support and for support for housing. And that's Premier Doug Ford, who led the way with the federal negotiations and provided $4 billion to support our municipality as our finance minister, the Honourable Peter Beth and Paul. Our message to the Deputy Prime Minister in those negotiations... Order. ...about funding. I'm proud to be with the government that continues to stand up for municipalities during the pandemic that continues to increase the housing prevention program that New Democrats voted against. Social services relief funding... Response. New Democrats voted against. It's pretty rich coming from the leader of the opposition when she says one thing, but then when it's time to vote, we all know what's going to happen. New Democrats always vote no, every single time. The final supplementary. Speaker, this government can give each other as many gold stars as they like, but I would like to ask them to listen to the people in the galleries today who are representing the folks right now. They know that this Conservative government is failing Ontarians when it comes to affordable housing. Their inaction on homelessness isn't just a moral crisis. It is an economic failure. It is costing every one of us more in emergency room visits, in shelter services, in lost economic participation. Speaker, this government has abandoned its goal of ending chronic homelessness by 2025. So my question to the Premier is will he recommit to this goal and invest the funds required to get it done? Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing, to reply. People who are committed to getting it done are the Ontario PC Party. New Democrats continue. Let's remember, when we increased the homeless prevention program, they did not support that. New Democrats did not support that. When we created the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness which is fundamental to being able to identify and to be able to deal with the homelessness problem in our country, they did not support that. New Democrats said no. We continue to provide the necessary dollars. I've said this in the House and Minister Smith was the Minister of Children, Community and Social Services. When we made that for Social Services Relief Fund announcement right here in the legislature three days after the pandemic was called, those dollars are most vulnerable, help food banks. Help PPE. Made sure that our most vulnerable in the middle of that pandemic were supported. We're going to continue to work with our partners but we need the federal government and we need new Democrats to support us when we ask for the money in New York. Question, the member for the University of Rosedale. My question is to the Premier. Last week, the City of Toronto's long-awaited housing plan came out and in that report it said that the housing plan is at high risk because of this government's controversial Bill 23. Toronto is now on track to lose $1.2 billion in development fee revenue earmarked just for shelter space and affordable housing. And they're losing that revenue at a time when Toronto's housing affordability and homelessness crisis is getting worse. Minister, what exactly is your plan to help Toronto solve the housing affordability and homelessness crisis? The NDP speaker are a party that supports taxing affordable housing. They're a party that supports taxing not-profit housing. Why would you want to do that? The narrative that that member continues to put forward is not correct. The municipalities will still be able to charge development charges that's a given. But again, what we're talking about is affordable housing. Non-profit housing. I spent last week touring developments that would ultimately save hundreds of thousands of dollars to create more housing opportunities for our most vulnerable. This is the type of housing that we want to incent and that's why we're providing that development charge relief. So for the member to say that she spawned in the house, I invite her to say it outside. Supplementary question. Member for Scarborough, Southwest. Thank you very much, Speaker. Back to the Premier. Mr. Purnesh, a single parent who has been living in a basement apartment for a decade with his adult son and teenage daughter has been waiting since 2014 to get a response on their RGI application with TCHC. Speaker, his children grew up, started high school, university, his wife passed away all while being stuck on a wait list and being under housed. This family is losing hope. And I really hope that the minister won't give me his talking points or how he's going to repopart the green belt. So my question is, Speaker, with the budget date coming up, will this government financially commit to increase the stock of deeply affordable housing for millions like Mr. Purnesh? Thank you very much. I guess I could ask the member opposite the same question. When we have increased dollars in the past, you didn't support that. So we'll take your question at its face value. We'll reach out to Toronto Community Housing who has all the operational decision making for your constituent. But the fact of the matter is this, they support taxing affordable housing. They support increased taxes for affordable housing. They support import tax on non-profit housing. We need to build more non-profit housing for Toronto Community Housing. We need all 47 service managers and our two Indigenous program administrators to work with us to get shovels in the ground faster. They're committed to doing that. But again, Speaker, there's one partner that's the entity. Thank you very much. The next question is for Elgin Middlesex, London. My question is for the Minister of Economic Development, Job, Creation and Trade. For years, hundreds of thousands of auto and manufacturing jobs were chased out of our province by the previous Liberal Government leaving Ontario unprepared for the electric vehicle revolution. Simply put, Speaker, Ontario was in no position to change the course of the future. That's why our Government must take aggressive action to rebuild our province's auto sector and attract investment all while growing the economy and creating good paying jobs. Last week we were thrilled, absolutely thrilled to hear the historic investment and announcement from Volkswagen in my riding of Elgin Middlesex, London. Speaker, can the Minister please provide more information about this game changing, in fact, and what it means for this province? Minister of Economic Development, Job, Creation and Trade. First Speaker, thank you to the member from Elgin Middlesex, London for his important role in bringing Volkswagen to his riding of St. Thomas. Rob, you did spectacular work. Last week we landed an historic investment from Europe's largest auto maker. This is Volkswagen's first overseas EV battery manufacturing plant right here in Ontario. Speaker, they had sites all over the globe to choose from, but they selected Ontario because they saw that we are transforming Ontario's automotive supply chain to build the cars of the future. They saw that we lowered the cost of doing business in Ontario by $7 billion annually and that brought $17 billion in auto investment. They saw that we're building an EV auto sector and they want it to be an important part of that. This legislature says welcome, Volkswagen. We start the supplementary question. Well, thank you, Speaker, and thank you to the Minister for his response. It's truly spectacular to see the commitment and hard work of our government pay off in the form of attracting significant investment to this province. We've worked really hard and got this job done as a competitive jurisdiction. We are now ready and easier to do business and invest and build not only in Algin, Middlesex, London, but throughout the province. Securing a major deal such as Volkswagen's decision to pick Ontario as he says over 40 sites in North America that we competed against for this electrical battery operation took place in advance to get to this point. Speaker, can the Minister please elaborate on what steps were taken to promote Ontario as a favourable destination for Volkswagen and how he got the job done. Minister of Economic Development This game changing investment from Volkswagen has been almost a year in the making. Dozens of meetings beginning last April. A sales mission to Volkswagen in Germany in October. Countless to face meetings between our teams. Many of them weekend long marathons and four meetings with Premier Ford and as we all know there is no better deal closer in Ontario than Premier Doug Ford. All of this amounted to one of the biggest investments in the province's history from our talented workforce, our clean energy, Ontario's comprehensive EV ecosystem, our abundance of critical minerals. Our message has been clear. Ontario has everything companies need to succeed. Speaker, this investment is a major vote of confidence in Ontario's position as the global EV supplier to the world. Thank you, Speaker. My constituent Sarah has been forced into homelessness with her six week old infant. Sarah is trying desperately to find a space in a shelter, any space. She has been calling shelters consistently for weeks and still cannot get placed, not even with a newborn. Sarah is here at Queen's Park today to watch this debate. She wants the Premier to know that she will lose her child if she does not have access to safe shelter and housing for baby Mia. Premier, where will Sarah and her baby baby Mia be sleeping tonight? Will his budget deliver the money for shelters and real affordable housing? Where will she go? Can she get one by the end of this week? Thank you very much for the question. I would certainly be happy to meet with the member's constituent. It is for Sarah and for others across the province that we are working so hard to ensure that we can bring jobs and opportunity to the province of Ontario. It is why the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing has been working so hard to bring jobs to the province of Ontario. That includes affordable housing speaker. That includes affordable housing. If you look across the government what the Minister of Education did to ensure that we had the best childcare deal in the country because we want Sarah and we want people in communities across this province to not only have hope today but hope for tomorrow so they can have a job they can have opportunity that they can live in a safe province of Ontario. That is exactly what we are doing whether broadband infrastructure investments we are making in housing across the province of Ontario and why we are working so hard with our partners in the municipal government to ensure that especially purpose-based rentals and non-for-profit housing is getting built. Thank you. The next question. The member for Windsor West. from the First quarter of 2023 51 families in my writing were supported by the Welcome Center shelter for women. Of the 166 total family members 61% of them were children or youth. Executive Director lady LaFaret says the biggest predictor of our future homeless population is the children accessing shelters today. Shelters continue to hear announcements of record funding increases to supports for children and youth who have experienced violence that are entering the shelter system, but the front lines aren't seeing it. In the 20 years that Lady has worked in the system, she hasn't seen a single cost of living increase to the homelessness prevention program. My question is this, when will the Premier and his Conservative Government stop the photo ops and empty funding announcements, actually do something to end the cycle of the homelessness and provide these families with the supports they need? I just want to take this opportunity to correct the member. This government, when it consolidated its three homelessness programs into the homelessness prevention program, we not only took those dollars, but we added an additional $25 million, which was distributed to our 47 service managers. We also made a significant investment to our Indigenous program administrators by adding additional supportive housing in the Indigenous supportive housing program. So what the member is talking about simply is not true. The dollars show that this government continues to increase spending. I'm going to caution the member on his language. The next question, the member for Elgin Middlesex Learner. Mr Speaker, my second question once again is to the Minister of Economic Development, Job, Creation and Trade. As we know, the investment from Volkswagen represents a truly significant deal by attracting a new major global automobile manufacturer to our province. By landing this highly competitive, and we've talked about that, highly competitive sought after investment required support from many offices and many teams. Speaker, will the Minister please elaborate on how broader government efforts contributed to last week's announcement? Minister of Economic Development, Job, Creation and Trade. Securing this game-changing Volkswagen investment was an all-of-government effort. Thank you to the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing for getting the land under one jurisdiction, Ministry of Infrastructure for the land assembly, Ministry of Finance, Treasury Board for providing the resources to make this deal happen, Ministry of Energy, making sure we have the clean and adequate energy to run this plant, Ministry of Indigenous Affairs for their valuable role in our duty to consent to consult, Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources, both making certain that all permits are defined and progressing. Many more speakers will come in the supplementary, but it's obvious. This was a whole-of-government team working together to make this deal happen. Supplementary question. Well, thank you, Speaker, and thank you to the Minister for his question, for his answer. It's great to hear that this was truly a team effort and resulted in Ontario securing this historic investment. I also want to thank our municipal partners, who stepped up and showed tremendous leadership as part of this process, securing a major investment from Volkswagen. Whether it was St. Thomas, Central Elgin, all of Elgin County, or in fact the City of London, they all did a wonderful job in supporting the efforts. Unfortunately, in previous years, my riding and others in Southwestern Ontario were associated with job losses and manufacturing. This investment sends a strong signal that our community and all of Southwestern Ontario is back in business. Without a doubt, many members of this government helped to bring this good news last week to fruition. Speaker, will the Minister continue to elaborate on the efforts and successes we had in the last week of economic development? Speaker, as mentioned, it is an all-of-government effort, thanks to the Ministry of Transportation providing plans to access this exciting new development. The Ministry of Labor and the Ministry of Colleges and Universities for their plan to train the people who will work at this new plant. Ministry of Mines to promote our critical minerals. Ministry of the Solicitor General as our bid needed a plan for fire and safety for this expansion. Ministry of Education for their child care plans. Ministry of the Attorney General for their work in crafting our agreements. Thank you to every ministry here. Red tape, service Ontario, agriculture, women's economic opportunity, children's services, health, mental health, long-term care, citizenship, seniors, tourism speaker, every single minister was consulted and contributed at the cabinet table and made this historic deal happen. Thank you. The next question, the next question. Thank you, Mr. Speaker. 600,000 people access Feed Ontario food banks last year. Two-thirds of the people who access food banks are on Ontario Disability Support or Ontario Works. The government has left food banks to deal with our homelessness and hunger crises because they have refused to double ODSP and OW. Will this government do what is right and double ODSP and Ontario Works to ensure that food banks are not left to deal with the homelessness and hunger crises in this province? Children's, community and social services. Thank you, Speaker. Our government is working across ministries to create the supports and implement the supports that people need when they're at their most vulnerable. And that's exactly why during COVID we invested $1 billion in the social services relief funding. It's why we also have been investing $83 million through the Ontario Trillium Foundation to provide grants to help eligible non-profit organizations, including food banks, recover and continue to deliver vital programs. As part of Ontario's effort to support children, youth and families, we've also provided millions of dollars in funding to Feed Ontario. That funding assisted Feed Ontario in producing and distributing pre-packaged hampers and supporting the great work that food banks do across the province. The Student Nutrition Program, another example of another ministry supporting the exact needs that the member opposite described. So we will continue to do this important thing. The supplementary question. Mr. Speaker, the reliance on food banks continues to grow under this government, and that's something that you should be ashamed of. Deborah, who is in the house today, was cut off of ODSP support when she turned 65. Now her rent, which is geared to income, has increased and she's lost most of her health benefits. This has left her in an even more precarious situation than when she was on ODSP. She has no option but to go to a food bank for support. Feed Ontario has become increasingly concerned that this government will consider federal CPP benefits as a subsidy to ODSP. Will this government commit to doubling ODSP and Ontario works and not cutting off people like Deborah when they turn 65? Thank you, Speaker. The truth is that our government is providing more for social assistance than any government in the history of this province. We have increased ODSP in an amount that has not been done for decades. We have increased the earnings exemption threshold by 400% to allow more people to be able to work and retain more of the dollars that they need to live in dignity. Order. We have been working with the Ministry of Labor, Immigration, Training and Skills. Member, continue. I'm going to ask the Member for Spadina, Fort York to withdraw. The Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services has a few more seconds. Thank you, Speaker. We have been working across ministries to make sure that we develop the programs that are necessary to support people. ODSP is one program. As you've heard, the food bank programs that are there as well. This is something that is taken in combination with other programs that are available and I'm very proud to say that our government. Thank you very much. The next question, the Member for Haldeman, Norfolk. Thank you, Speaker. My question is to the Minister of Natural Resources. The Globe and Mail recently published a report about gas wells in Ontario, the first petroleum producing province. Well, today there is a responsible natural gas industry. There is a problem with legacy dormant wells in southwestern Ontario is ground central. In Norfolk County alone, there are 2,634 dormant wells, one of which has been in the news for years. The county lacks the expertise to remedy or monitor the situation. Speaker, one more problem well could financially destroy the municipality. We know in Wheatley the issue was acute with an explosion. Experts predict it's just a matter of time until another explosion occurs. Southwestern Ontario is literally a powder keg ready to blow. Where will it be? Chatham Kent, Lampton, Elgin, Norfolk. Speaker, to the minister, what is the ministry's plan to address legacy wells in Ontario? To apply ministered natural resources and forestry. Thank you, Mr Speaker. I want to ensure this house that we are doing everything we can to protect the safety of Ontario's people, population and communities, especially in southwest Ontario. I had a meeting with Mayor Martin from Norfolk at the Roma Conference in January. She came to say thank you. Thank you for the investment that this government has made in a well that was problematic in their community. The conversation went on and we had a great talk about what we can do and we are continuing to work on legacy oil and gas wells and continuing to have conversations to invoke a strategy that will make a meaningful difference. But Mr Speaker, you know absent is federal dollars that have gone to other jurisdictions and in 2020 and in 2022 my office wrote the federal government and asked that Ontario be made partner and available to these have these dollars available to us and we continue to wait for a response to that to help with our plans here on territory. A supplementary question. Thank you, Speaker and thank you to the minister for his response. I want to be clear and I want to differentiate between abandoned wells and private gas wells, rural landowners use as their source of power. The latter group are not a problem but yet they received a letter stating there will be no extension to any licensed well after September 2032. Speaker, I hope the ministry can find a more positive way forward for my farmers and farm families especially in Haldeman County who rely on these wells but at the same time the ministry must take action on legacy wells. A recent McGill University study looked at abandoned wells testing levels of hydrogen sulfide and methane. The study concluded the methane levels were underestimated. Methane is a greenhouse gas and hydrogen sulfide can be toxic. This problem is bigger than the province of Ontario and I'm heartened to hear, Speaker, that the minister is putting pressure on the federal government. I'm asking what additional pressure the ministry will put on the federal government to ward off a pending environmental and catastrophic disaster. Minister of Natural Resources and Forestry. Thank you again for the question from the member opposite. Again we will continue to ask the federal government for support but as we go through this process I think it's important to also know that we will be in communities in southwest Ontario this spring important listening sessions to hear from communities to hear from people that are directly affected by this problem. Again we are taking this very very seriously and developing a strategy that will benefit Ontarians especially those in southwest Ontario in the future and I think it's really also important to note that you know for the folks in Wheatley that have been through a devastating and difficult time this government has been there every step of the way. Premier Ford was there for them every step of the way and my visit in October to be able to speak with homeowners business owners and officials Spots. We said we would use this as a learning experience we mean that and we are going to implement that in a solution going forward. Thank you. Next question the member for Nag or West. My question is for the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing. It was my pleasure to welcome the minister to my riding last week as we visited the United of Mennonite homes in Vineland. Wolter Squadron and the team at United of Mennonite homes offer exceptional care long-term care supportive housing and independent living for seniors in my community and we reviewed their plans to expand and offer more supportive and affordable housing for seniors in Niagara. Now I know our government's recent updates to development charges will open new opportunities for organizations like the United of Mennonite home and I'm wondering if the minister could speak a little bit about how these changes will make it easier for not-for-profits to build affordable housing and deliver critical services to vulnerable Ontarians such as those in my riding who are looking forward to these investments continuing to being made. Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing. Speaker I want to thank the member for Niagara West for the great tour that we had in his riding last week. You know speaker you sure know what a great job the member's doing when you spend some time in their riding meeting with their constituents. Speaker I've said it many times this morning actually in the house our government does not believe that non-profit and affordable housing providers should be charged huge unsustainable fees when looking to build affordable housing for vulnerable Ontarians that's why through more homes built faster the bill 23 our government is eliminating development charges for affordable non-profit and select attainable housing. I'm hearing from housing providers from all corners of the province about the immediate and the positive impact that these changes are having with affordable and non-profit housing providers now being able to reinvest these savings into their projects and create more opportunities for their residents all more to say in the supplemental speaker. The supplementary question very much speaker for too long governments did nothing leading to a crisis in affordable housing in the province of Ontario but our government took to decisive action under the leadership of this minister and Premier Ford to deliver on a mandate to build 1.5 million homes here in the province of Ontario and we know that from the Ontario housing affordability task force we've seen some municipalities raise development charges by some 900 percent over the last 20 years a completely ridiculous number. Our governments must urgently respond to the recommendations and implement measures which will address the housing supply crisis and get more homes built faster and at a time when Ontarians are struggling with rising costs of living we know that the fees that are put onto these builds especially not for profits and affordable housing only push the dream of home ownership further out of reach for so many and harm some of the most vulnerable including our seniors so speaker could the minister please elaborate to the house what our government is doing to incentivize more affordable housing here in the province of Ontario and in my right. Minister of municipal affairs and housing. I'm proud of the changes our government's made and I'm thrilled to see that shovels are getting in the ground the project that that we toured was a tremendous campus of care that United many night homes were working on and in fact the savings that they would receive because of bill 23 was 1.6 million dollar speaker very very significant dollars to help that project earlier that week I toured with the member for Whitby and toured a habitat for humanity build along with Durham region non-profit housing corporation their new affordable housing that they hope they'll open later this year their savings was over 500 000 dollars our government's committed to lower the cost of housing to get shovels in the ground faster and to support some of the great non-profits like habitat and like United men and at home so thank you the question thank you the next question the member for Mishki Gowak James Bay thank you thank you question for the premier in the pre-budget consultation my colleague in Tamiz Kamin Cochrane asked to the president of the assembly of francophony and an assessment of the health services since the reform and how the initiatives of the ministry of health can be translated for francophones and the answer was that they didn't know because there were no performance indicators so my question to the minister is can you please tell us what are the results for health services in french and what are the basis of your response thank you and to respond you know it it is really important that when we look at the expansions that we are doing with bill 60 that we also understand where the needs and the areas of expansion have to happen and of course one of those processes for assessment will be how we can better serve the francophone community in the province of Ontario that is why i am so excited about bill 60 because we now have a formalized process that ensures where the needs are in community close to community will be part of the application approval process and it will ensure to the members point that when we are looking for areas that have traditionally not been served as well and perhaps have longer wait lists we now have a process through bill 60 of pass to ensure that we can expand the surgical community and diagnostic areas thank you and the supplementary question i heard the answer from the minister but this is only words and words the problem is still pursuant there are always the same problems my constituents are coming to me with preoccupied preoccupations when it comes to francophone services so once again i reiterate my question what is the ministry doing to collect all this data and answer all the preoccupied preoccupations of the francophone thank you for the first time ever we modernize the french language services act since he has been passed Mr. Speaker the opposition voted for the modernization of this act it was actually deceiving because it was a basic act for francophones living in Ontario i am working closely with my colleague the minister of health and i was also honoured to hear recommendations when it comes to modernizing the acts when it comes to french language services we will continue working closely with the community and with the minister of health first willing thank you speaker my question is to the minister of education and i also want to personally thank him for his advice and friendship as our time working together uh ontario's population is growing rapidly speaker and our government's ensuring that we're building houses but we also must ensure that we're providing the next generation of ontario students with the skills they need to succeed for over a decade and a half under the previous liberal government neglected to prepare student our students for the jobs of tomorrow and that absolutely and they absolutely require to build and sustain ontario in the construction sector alone we know we will need 70 000 workers by 2027 to meet our province's growing infrastructure needs new knowledge and skills must be taught to our students so that they will be successfully prepared to fill the jobs that are so desperately needed speaker can the minister please explain how our government is equipping our students for a lifelong careers that will build ontario for generations to come minister of education i need to take a moment to thank the member from perth willington for his exceptional leadership in the ministry and in this province he has moved the yardstick forward on a major file of modernizing our curriculum because we want our young people to learn the life and job skills that have been missing in the curriculum under the former liberals for a decade of inaction while the economy changed around the world ontario's students were learning a stagnant curriculum disconnected from the job skills necessary because of our government and our leadership we are now ensuring modern curriculum in math in science in computer sciences in technology right across the stem curriculums everything has been modernized with an emphasis on mandatory learning on financial literacy and on life skills things like learning about taxation and about credit and debt about learning how to save for a home these are real skills that are necessary they're now infused in addition to hiring the best educator based on their merit together we're giving these kids our best fight of success thank you a supplementary question thank you speaker and thank you to the minister for that response it's certainly encouraging to hear about the leadership our government is demonstrating by encouraging skilled trades careers for our young people along with investments to deliver on that commitment however these efforts will not pay dividends if our students are not connected with the skills or opportunities they need to pursue a career in the skilled trades field given the reality that one in five jobs by 2026 will be in the skilled trades it will take an all hands deck approach to meet the need in our society speaker can the minister please explain what actions our government is taking to ensure that our students are exposed to the opportunities that are available to the skilled trades and other technology fields thank you very much thank you very much mr. speaker it's a critical question and of course we know there's hundreds of thousands of skilled labor shortages today in our economy and because of leadership the minister of economic development the premier we have more investments including Volkswagen a historic investment in Ontario and a sign of confidence in our future mr. speaker to ensure those companies can fill their workplaces with skilled labor we're ensuring for the first time starting in september of 2024 every student in grade nine or 10 will now be required to take a technological education course opening up their horizons and their opportunities to these good paying jobs and meaningful careers where they exist mr. speaker they are a wide variety of options for young people and most especially as the minister of social and economic opportunities for women had said just weeks ago this is going to create a greater pathway for more women to enter the trades and get the best paying jobs in this economy next question remember for Niagara Falls thank you mr. speaker my question is to the premier if you are a resident of a private for-profit long-term care home in Ontario during the pandemic you are nearly twice as likely to die from COVID-19 than in non-for-profit home but this government is helping for-profit long-term care to expand even after 5,400 people died extended care announced an agreement to buy reveres shares in 18 homes and managed the remaining 31 pending the approval of this government so my question is simple to the minister why would this government allow one of the worst actors in long-term care to get more control of and make more profits from this sector thank you the minister of long-term care uh mr. speaker i i guess i shouldn't be surprised by that question because uh the minister or the member opposite has voted against every single initiative that we put in place to improve long-term care pro across the province of Ontario now just Friday just Friday colleagues i was at the rukai center in Toronto a wonderful not-for-profit announcing an additional 1.2 billion dollars to increase the level of care to three hours and 42 minutes across the province of Ontario ironically that member and that party voted against that investment mr. speaker now we're also brought in through the fixing long-term care act the toughest the toughest regulations across the province across this country mr. speaker we've also doubled the amount of inspectors to have the highest inspector-to-home ratio not just in Canada but in north america mr. speaker and all the time that member and that party voted against it mr. speaker supplementary question thank you very much this government can ramble about their investments but doesn't answer the question private for profit order you guys listen private for profit homes heads and i want this to listen here 78 percent more covid deaths than non-profit homes those are our parents our grandparents our moms our dads our brothers and sisters extended care has one of the highest death rates during the pandemic and now they will own one in every five homes in Ontario what will it take for this conservative government to start caring for the well-being of people long-term care homes above corporate profits and friends and donors and protect and stop the dying in long-term care homes 55,400 died most in profit homes thank you to respond again long-term care what let's let's look at what the opposition wants us to do they want us to nationalize long-term care they want us to spend billions of dollars buying real estate mr. speaker instead what we're going to do is put the toughest regulations in north america which we've done back that up by the highest inspected home ratio in north america which we've done increase the level of care to four hours which we are doing this year an additional 1.2 billion next year an additional 1.8 billion which we're doing we're going to hire 27,000 additional health care workers for long-term care alone and we're making sure that we're getting the homes built because the minister of municipal affairs and housing is giving me m's at oh so that i can get those homes built the minister of colleges and universities is is training psw's and nurses to ensure that we can get it done the minister of labor of course is training the people who are building these homes across ontario mr. speaker we're building homes we're staffing them we're giving them the highest level of care something that they have voted against every single time thank you very much the next question the member for glenn gary prescott russians thank you thank you speaker my question is for the minister of francophone affairs today is the international day of the francophony march is actually the month of francophony francophones in ontario are important when it comes to our economic prosperity i am proud to be francophone i am proud to serve the francophones in my writing our government should support businesses and agencies who offer services in french and helps french people in canada in ontario rather many factors had impacted our economic measures can the minister tell us how the government will support francophones in my writing and in the rest of ontario thank you speaker i would like to thank my colleague for his excellent question patho is a program for our ministry our government invested two billion dollars each year this program will help ontarian francophones by helping financial means for projects in order for them to reinforce the ability of businesses to provide french services this program will help hiring french people and create occasions to celebrate francophony in ontario during this month of francophony i am proud to launch the 2023 2024 edition of the program our government will continue using measures for francophony thank you mr speaker and i would like to thank the minister for her answer it is a pleasure to hear that this program will have a new edition this year this will help many businesses and this is essential for our province thanks to those initiatives our government will offer a high quality of life for all our ontarians and will make sure we are participating in the social and cultural activity of the province can the minister tell us how important the international day of the francophony is and can she tell us how our government is recognizes the special needs of the francophones in ontario mr speaker the international day of francophony is the occasion for us to recognize the contributions of francophone ontarians that who have been living in canada for more than 400 years we are also recognizing diversity of francophone ontarians every year we are welcoming newcomers our government recognizes how francophony is an asset for the province we are committed to support businesses and francophone organizations so they can continue contributing to the social well-being of our province and other programs delivered in french through our kebek ontario agreements are part of our strategy for francophony we want to support francophone business in ontario and the community in ontario in many communities in thunderbay superior north it is impossible to recruit educators and health care workers because there's nowhere to house them we can even offer to pay them 150 thousand dollars but they still might not be able to find a place to live with new minds coming if there's no new housing built within existing communities workers will be stuck living in camps leading to increased isolation high rates of addiction and risks to neighboring communities will the government provide direct funding to support the building of housing in northwestern ontario that also takes into account the higher costs of building in smaller northern communities don't she administer housing thanks very much speaker and i think monitor will call you for the very important question and she's absolutely right mr speaker we are working very hard to make sure that there's more homes available across the entire province mr speaker which is why if you look at our record the last couple of years we had number of housing starts mr speaker since we haven't had since 1987 i'm not going to stop there mr speaker we're going to continue to go forward why because of the jobs that we're creating for the people of this province we don't want to be second to any jurisdiction we have the best and brightest living right here in this province we think we're number one in everything we'll make sure we have the house houses for the jobs that are coming to this province thanks to the help of this minister and our premier mr speaker so i'll arrest the short we'll make sure that we'll even break the records of previous years we'll get to our 1.5 million homes so we don't let you give the choice and the supplementary the member for st catheters thank you speaker my questions to the premier a recent cm hc rental report found that new rental supply is not translating to lower rents in fact households on russell avenue in st catharines are being gouged with a 17 percent rent increase this is because this conservative government has cut rent control on new builds these are young families these are professionals with good incomes question to the premier can you explain why your housing plan is leading to a transfer of profits from young families in nigra to outside developers and will you take these double digit rent increases seriously by implementing real rent control today to put families first right the associate minister of housing thank you very much speaker and thanks for the question the young family that the member is uh is referring to mr speaker is exactly who what this government is fighting for to make sure that they are not priced out of the housing market mr speaker because of our government the rent decrease guideline is capped at two and a half percent if it weren't because of inflation it would be at 5.3 percent ohia now mr speaker we said at time and again we need more supply we're in a housing supply crisis in this province but we're the only ones that are fighting for the people this province mr speaker we're the only ones that are saying that we need to make sure we bring the housing prices down so that people can afford it but the opposition continuously opposes us they'll talk about housing mr speaker order but they'll vote against it they'll talk about protection for tenants we put in a bill they'll vote against the housing uh the protection for tenants mr speaker two record years in last year we broke the record in the province's history for the number of purpose-built rental units the next question start the clock member for eglinton lorenz my question is for the minister of seniors and accessibility seniors in ontaria want the ability to be active and socially connected in their communities our government must support investments that address social isolation and help older adults live healthy lifestyles i was pleased to see the minister recently visit north york to announce funding as part of the seniors community grants program our local community is appreciative of the work by the premier and this minister in providing support for programs and educational activities for seniors speaker can the minister please explain why this funding is important for the constituents of north york and for seniors across ontario minister of seniors and accessibility thank you to the member from eglinton lorenz for this important question the members of toronto west are doing marvelous job to make sure seniors are getting the funding they deserve social isolation is enemy number one we must keep seniors connected active to fight social isolation that is why our government has invested over 22 million dollars into over 1200 senior project across ontario this is one of many ways we are working for you to build better ontario thank you thank you speaker and thank you to the minister for that response seniors in our province face additional barriers in accessing services that can prevent social isolation as ontario's population continues to age our government must continue to provide seniors with high quality supports empowering our seniors in their own communities will contribute to overall improved health and social well-being speaker can the minister please elaborate on how seniors community grants programs benefit our seniors in our province thank you again for all the important question the mpp's for eglinton lorenz etopico center etopico lecture etrionals willow dale york center york south western are showing passion and leadership when it comes to improving the lives of our seniors in ontario since 2018 toronto west has received almost two million dollars for senior community grants to stop social isolation and fight ageism these grants support educational activities improve mental health and support low-income seniors live a better life in their communities this program is one of the ways we are working for you to serve the needs of ontarians thank you that concludes our question period for this morning this house stands in recess until 1 p.m


My name is Hamilton Staples, and I have the great pleasure of introducing our first speaker today here in Bancroft Hall, Richard Feynman. Dr. Feynman is a professor of cell biology at SUNY Downstate Medical Center. The original title of his talk was fructose and fructophobia, the threat to paleo and the opportunity. I hear that title has changed, and he'll reveal the new title during the talk. Please join me in welcoming Dr. Richard Feynman. Well, the the title has changed. The opportunity in fructose was that it was a lot of the discussion was based on basic metabolism. Which emphasizes the scientific background of the problem. The threat, however, is that partly we might not get the metabolism right and that we're a little bit out of control in condemning fructose and the former mayor of New York thought we should even tax it, which would certainly have raised money, but not clear that it would do anything else. So exaggeration is not good, but in taking a paleolithic viewpoint, there are probably bigger threats. In particular, there's a certain amount of pressure to turn the country into what I call carrot nation. If you don't know the reference, I'll carry nation was one of the famous prohibitionists, and she went around smashing whiskey bottles with her axe. But there are actually many threats, a threat of red meat and even white rice. So as I looked into the threats, there was more and more material. I found myself like the apocryphal story of a graduate student, as I heard it in Berkeley, who was writing a thesis whose title was the character of Shylock and the Merchant of Venice. After a year or so, he had so much material that he changed the title to the Jew in Shakespeare, and ultimately the Jew in Elizabethan literature, and after some time the title became the Jew, and he's supposedly still working on it. So there really are a lot of threats here, and what I'd like to do is to describe some of the problems in the medical literature and the new title is Hill's Criteria, Bay's Theorem, and Murphy's Law, and Feynman's Matrix. So I'm going to discuss some of the original points on Fructose and give you a golden rule for statistics to apply to the medical literature, and I'm going to describe Bradford Hill as the person who first made the association between cigarette smoke and cancer, and his explanation on when an association does imply causality, and Bayes will describe the philosophy of statistics, and we all know Murphy's Law and Nutrition can go wrong, they can prove it right with statistics anyway, and in order not to be overly negative, I'll try to give a possible take on what we can do that might improve communication in this area. Now in Fructose, the key question as stated by Denise Minger's blog post was whether the fruits that we're eating now are like anything we ate before, and the idea is that we have not evolved to deal with high intake of sugar in the environment, and she showed that there really are a lot of sweet fruits that have not been through genetic engineering or Del Monte processing, and that they are sweet and have a lot of carbohydrate. But the real question is undoubtedly true that the availability of carbohydrates specifically Fructose was much lower for our ancestors, but the question is does that show up as an evolution of the metabolism for low intake, and I would suggest that in fact just the opposite that if there was a rare availability of Fructose, that finding a berry patch for our ancestors was equivalent to finding a coupon for Haagen-Dazs. Moderation was not what was going on. So looking at the metabolism, the basic idea that was a problem in terms of the science is the emphasis on, this is the basic glycolytic pathway by which Glucose is processed either for lactate or in the TCA cycle, and there's an emphasis on that being different than how Fructose is processed in the liver. And what's said is that Fructose by-passes PfK1. Fossil Fructocognase 1 is considered one of the major control points in glycolysis, so it responds to ATP and 10 other metabolites, and so regulates the metabolism of the flow of Glucose metabolites. The trouble with that is that that's not a really accurate way of looking at metabolism. The idea that this causes this and that causes that is not how metabolism is really set out. It's more what I call the pinball machine analogy and that's really not an accurate position description of metabolism, because in fact Fructose 1 phosphate activates Glucocinase. In other words, the appearance of Fructose calls for more Glucose, so what has evolved in the liver is a system for taking in both together. And Fructocognase requires ATP, and what that means is that if you lower ATP, you're going to turn on Fossil Fructocognase. So the basic idea is that whereas it's true that a high Fructose intake will lead to these intermediates, the so-called triosphosphates, which internally to fat and other downstream effects, the presence of Fructose also activates the conversion of Glucose to these intermediates. So the big conundrum if you want to ask questions about metabolism in Fructose is how do the triosphosphates know whether they came from Glucose or Fructose? Well they don't of course, and the further complication is because everything is connected, you also have substantial Gluconeogenesis. And in fact up to 60% of ingested Glucose will be converted to Glucose. I'm sorry, ingested Fructose will be converted to Glucose. So it's going to be very hard to sort this out, and you better be sure you have very accurate data. In addition, although under-emphasized, Fructose is a major source of glycogen. For a long time it was considered a glycogenic substrate. And finally, contrary to what you may see on the internet, ethanol is not processed in any way like Fructose. They're completely different in their metabolism. So where does this play out in terms of practical considerations? If you have a high Fructose input, you do see statistically higher triglycerides for example in the blood. But if you look at this, you can see that the differences are not great. And more important, there's a very large variability. It's not clear that anybody in here is really better than anybody in there because of the huge error bars. The real problem with it from a practical standpoint is that all these experiments are done at 55 percent total carbohydrate. And the question is really not, how can we maintain 55 percent carbohydrate? And if we do that, should we put Glucose in place of Fructose? I don't think that's the question. But more important, this kind of data is not really informative. And so I'm going to bring you the minus one principle. And that is that in nutrition, as in Lake Wobegon, nobody is average. And the new rule is habeas corpus d'aturum. We have to see all the data. We have to see what individual people... You don't want to know whether you're likely average. You want to know whether it's worth your while to bet on a particular diet. The zeroth principle, the major principle comes from a book called PDQ statistics. It's a very good statistics book. It's a sense of humor is somewhat beyond even PDQ Bach. So I'll just leave this up here if you can read it. But the statistical principle that it says is that the onus is on the author to convey an accurate impression of what the data look like using graphs or standard measures before beginning the statistical shenanigans. And that's going to be the main theme here, is that the medical literature is not doing well on that. I won't go through this. I have too much detail here. I misread the instructions. I thought I had 40 hours. The important point though is the idea of relative risk. And it's roughly speaking the same as odds ratio or hazard ratio. And the way it plays out practically is if the odds ratio is 50-50 or the hazard ratio is 50-50 and the hazard risk is one, then there's no difference between the two things that you're trying to compare. Now if the odds ratio is 2 to 1, then that's a suggestion that you may have something. That's probably what it would take to be considered seriously if you had a toxic tort case in a court of law. If you came in with less than 2 to 1, you'd probably have to have other evidence. I don't think it's cut in the right. So the main caveat is that relative or percent differences hides information. You have to know what the real risk is. As one example I give is Alice has 30% more money than Bob, but you don't know how much money she has. They may both be on welfare. Or I can give you a good way of doubling your odds of winning the lottery. You buy two tickets instead of one. Obviously that's not going to help a lot. Now the so-called father of modern epidemiology is Bradford Hill. And he, this is a remarkable document. It summarizes the question of winning the association could be considered causal. And it's beautifully written and very modest. I recommend it even though it's 50 years old. That's Bradford Hill. And as I said, what he asked is in what circumstances can we pass from the observation to a verdict of causation? And he produced nine rules. He was very modest and said that it was common sense. He didn't mean that they were absolute criteria. And the first of the rules, and this is what you should ask yourself when you look at any paper, are we talking about something big changes? Because his first study was to get medical records from physicians who because of their jobs were required to have medical records. And of the 789 deaths, Richard Dahl was his co-worker and 36 of the deaths were attributed to lung cancer. So when he went to look at the counted smokers versus non-smokers, the correlation virtually sprang out. All 36 of the deaths had occurred in smokers. So that's the kind of data that will tell you this is likely causation. This is described in the Emperor of Ormalities which is an excellent history of cancer. So let me tell you how you might apply Bradford Hill's first principle. This is a recent study on the Mediterranean diet. This is actually the most highly accessed paper last year in the New England Journal of Medicine. And their conclusion was that a Mediterranean diet supplemented with extra virgin olive oil or nuts reduced the incidence of major cardiovascular events. If you look at the data, however, the data is presented quite honestly here right up front. And you can see that there's a big difference between the controlled diet and the Mediterranean diet. But if you look in absolute terms, if you actually look at the scale here, this is pretty small. It's about 2%. And the authors rather honestly plotted this on a overall picture. The hazard ratio is .7. So the way to think of hazard ratio given this way is it's the inverse of the reciprocal of the risk. So .7 corresponds to or .5 corresponds to 2 to 1 odds. So they have not even hit 2 to 1 odds here. But in criticizing these things, one usually asks, maybe there's a reduction in cardiovascular risk, but what about overall mortality? And if you look at that, you can see that the Mediterranean diet, one of them was worse than just about the same as the controlled diet. In other words, there's virtually no difference here. And the analysis I just added my own graphic, you really have to look pretty hard to find anything here. So the point here is that Dolan Hill didn't have to do anything at all. The trial that was supposed to be the most rigorous statistical analysis, barely required elementary mathematics to prove its point. And that's I think a major point. If you want to get people to change their behavior, you have to get something real. Let me turn to another case, which is red meat, which is red meat and type 2 diabetes. And there's the claim that red meat consumption caused type 2 diabetes. And the most recent papers said that changes in red meat consumption. In other words, they had two different time points for red meat and the subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes. They came to the conclusion that increasing red meat over time is associated with an elevated subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes. And I'm going to try to analyze this particular study as a guide to what you have to deal with in the medical literature. When you look at this, what you're confronted with is rather than easy presentation of the data, you see absolute mind-numbing tables. So the question is, how do you get the information out of this? And what you want to know is, well, what is the risk? Because again, the first principle is, is this a big risk? And you can calculate that. The incidence, I mean that's the simplest thing to ask, what is the incidence of diabetes in this case if you're a high meat eater? And you just take the number of cases which you can find in table one, and I'm sorry, table two, and divide that by n which you can find in table one, and you come out with 7.4%, which is something. It's not great. But you have to compare this to those people who didn't change their red meat intake. And when you do that calculation, that's 6.8%. So the absolute difference is less than 1%. And when you consider that this is a change, what that means is that they measured red meat consumption at two different time points, and this kind of data is like weighing the captain by weighing the ship when he's on board and when he's not. You're really looking for trouble. Another way to describe the data is to take the reciprocal of the absolute difference which is called the number needed to treat. So what this says is that you would have to get 167 people to substantially reduce their intake of red meat in order to save one person from type 2 diabetes. Along these lines, though, is the Hill's next principle which was consistency. In other words, does the observation fit in with everything else that's been going on? Has it been observed by different persons in different places, circumstances, and times? Well, it's been certainly observed by the same group at Harvard over time. But overall, what most people observe is that during the period that we refer to as the epidemic of diabetes, diabetes went up substantially. The units are in millions of people, and this is in pounds of red meat. So there is a substantial lack of correlation here. And nonetheless, the authors say our results add further evidence that limiting red meat consumption over time confers benefits for type 2 diabetes prevention. No, it doesn't. If anything, it shows just the opposite. I tried to do this fairly quickly. I don't want to put a lot of text on the screen, but the reason this is uniquely offensive is that both the authors and the press suggested that the risk in red meat was comparable to the risk in cigarette smoke. My overall impression of epidemiology is the correlation between cigarette smoke and cancer is not only the classic example, but it may be the only example. So I wrote to the editor when this came out and I said that the association is very low, and the author reply was that no, it's not low, that the 1.8 hazard ratio that they found was the same as the ratio they found for smoking, which first makes you wonder why the paper wasn't called a risk from smoking. But 1.4 is not high. The definition of high is not what you think is going to be a cause. It's what the number says. And Bradford Hill found the death rate from cancer in cigarette smokers is 9 to 10 times the rate in non-smokers and the rate in heavy cigarette smokers is 20 to 30 times. In addition, the important point is that he said that if you look at the cancers that do associate with cigarette smoking, it's lung and throat. It's those things that you expect, it's not. And he gave the example of thrombosis where he said 2 to 1 was already suspicious. So I think this is very serious criticism and I'm not finished with this paper and that journal. And then there's temporality and this is just a question of which came first to the car of the horse and I won't discuss this much except you do see a lot of reports about how diet soda is associated with obesity. Who drinks diet soda? A really important question though is the biological gradient and what's meant here is that not only 20 times what non-smokers found, but the more there was a direct correlation between how much you smoked and the risk of cancer. So if we go back to the red meat paper, we calculated the incidence for high red meat, we calculate for small intake and you get 5.5%. But you should look at what happens if there's a decrease in red meat and what you find out is that it's the same as high red meat. So what I did is I went back and calculated the risk dose response curve and what you see is this. And what this is saying is that part of this curve is that when red meat goes down, diabetes goes up. I posted this on Facebook, somebody said what is the meaning of it going back up? And the meaning is that this data doesn't mean anything at all. The error and the poor methodology is such that it could come out right.  But you can put out the data and misinterpret it any way you want. So how did they find that the actual risk corrected was 1.59? It's not that great, but it's something. And the answer is that they corrected for confounders. Now what this means is, for example, if you found that there was a direct correlation between, say, carbohydrate and obesity, you would have to recognize that people who took in a lot of carbohydrate might also be taking in a lot of calories. So you would have to correct that data for calories and if it held up, the association might be causal. If it didn't hold up, you'd have to throw it out. However, if you start from something that is wrong and you add confounders, well, they actually, the time-dependent, tax-proportional hazard regression model means they just looked at how the rate changed over time. And they had to correct for race and family history and smoking and red meat and initial changes and other lifestyle. They got it to come out right. Probably if it hadn't come out right, they'd have to put it in their shirt size and other variables. Well, overall I describe this with reference to Gulliver's Travels. He's a country where they refer to the thing which was not because their language doesn't have a word for lying. This is meaningless data. Another view of the biological gradient, this compared, again, changes in availability of sugar with the incidence of diabetes. Now what's good about this paper is that it actually put out all the data. It did not lump things together. It did not give you a mind-numbing table. And the thing about this is what I did is you have to recognize that here there was no change in diabetes and here there was no change in sugar availability. And what I did is just break this into quarters and colorize it. I haven't changed any of the data here. And what you can see is that it's as likely that, well, almost as likely that if you lower sugar you get an increase in diabetes, or if you increase sugar you get lower diabetes. So this data really, if anything, it says there's no association. But when you consider that they're measuring changes in sugar availability, the whole thing could be changed if a couple of guys in Hoboken hijacked a crate of sugar every couple of months. I won't go through these. I'll just post them. He'll have a total of nine criteria. And, well, as I say, I'll just post these. He was very careful about saying, about biological plausibility that that changes over time. Let me switch now instead to Bayes theorem. Now, have a, I'm going to skip most of the detail to give you the bottom line. Which is that Bayes theorem relates statistics to psychology. It tells you what you really mean when you say you have a 20% chance of rain. Now, most people interpret that as not meaning anything at all.  But it recognizes that what you have in statistics is a belief state. And I'll skip through to the bottom line. And, well, Bayes put it in an equation. Bayes was actually an 18th century clergyman. This dates from 1743. And he, what the equation is, it's one of the order equations to understand. He says that you start with an a priori assumption about the likelihood that cardiovascular disease and saturated fat are associated. And then you correct that in some sense by the actual experiment that you do about the probability that there's a lot of cardiovascular disease and the probability that the people in your study are actually consuming saturated fat. And then you have an a posteriori conclusion. In other words, you have a new belief state based on the experiment. And in practical terms, you may not be able to put a number on the a priori belief. But that's the likelihood for the experiment. So, coming to the conclusion, whatever the belief that saturated fat was a causal agent, after the Framingham study, our belief had to go down. We were much more suspicious that that was true. Or we should have been. And the Oslo Hart study would further give us a belief about the hypothesis that was lower than when we started the experiment. And there's a whole bunch of these winding up with the Women's Health Initiative, after which we wouldn't believe it at all. So what's the take-home message here? If you apply this kind of thinking to a meta-analysis, this is where people try to average different experiments, you can see that the assumption is very bad. Several of these came out recently comparing what happens when you substitute saturated fat for other things. And the remarkable thing, the statistical rule is that if the error bar crosses the hazard ratio of one, then there's no difference. And so there are only two statistically significant studies here. So what should have been is rather than averaging these, each one of these should make the others less likely. And so what you're doing in a meta-analysis is you're trying to show that many wrongs add up to something real. And that doesn't make sense. Let me try to finish up by showing you what I think is a good way to present some of the data. And we published this a couple of years ago. It was based on the idea. We said, you know, if you're going to do statistics, the underlying assumption in statistics is that your independent variable, which is what people eat, for example, or, you know, this is relatively identical and that the error is due to some kind of random disturbance in the environment that one guy gets somewhat more mayonnaise than his tuna fish salad or something. But we know that that's really not true in a diet experiment and the twin study shows you that, in fact, if you look at energy efficiency, how many change in energy compared to the predicted, you can see the twins are very close together. But between pairs of twins, there's a lot of variability. So what we did is we tried to take account of this and give the, would be the most modest approach to the diet study. So what we did, this is, we took Volek's data from a low carb diet, very low carbohydrate ketogenic diet and a low fat diet. So the, we took the low carb diet, we took all of the weight loss and we put them in order and put them across the top.   So what we're saying here is, we don't know whether two people are alike, but let's look at all the possibilities. What will be, what will happen if one person just happens to be like each of the others. And so this is the broadest picture of what could go wrong. And then we color code this and if it's evenly divided, then you know there's no real difference between the two diets. But in fact you can see that the low carb diet was drastically better. More important, I don't think you can see the color here, but the people who really did well was much greater in the low carb group. So we published it, we did it because it made sense and it was a good way to look at the data, but we kept saying to each other, we can't have invented this. Somebody must have done something like this before. We ran into the problem of communicating with statisticians, which turns out to be harder than I thought. And it took us a while before, they didn't know what we were talking about. We finally found what this really is like. And it's like the non-parametric method. A non-parametric test is what you do if you are not sure that your data is normally distributed, like a bell-shaped curve. And all you do is you, this compares the response time for alcoholics, for alcohol ingestion and placebo and they get all these different times. And all you do is you just rank them. You put them in a list and then you add up all the ranks. And the group that has the higher rank is, in this case, the slower one. So it's clear that alcohol has much lower reaction time. And so we realized that this is really equivalent to what we were doing. We made a matrix and we put one group on the top, the other group on the side, and we calculated all the differences. Then when you color code it, you can immediately see that one group is better than the other. So we're going to call this the graphical non-parametric matrix algorithm on the chance that it's so complicated that people start calling it the fine-man-fine method. And we'll see whether that happens. So these are the take-home messages. You've got to see all the data. Statistics always, group statistics always hides data. And it has to be a strong association. And the onus is on the author to convey the reader accurate impression of what the data looked like. Otherwise you've got to view it as an expression. Okay, that's it. We probably have time for one or two quick questions. Does anyone want to ask Dr. Feynman? Anybody in the back? I can walk to you. Hi, Dr. Feynman. So do you disagree with the fact then that fructose creates more fat in a person's body than glucose? Yeah, I disagree with that. As a general statement, and there are certainly conditions where it may, it does not actually contribute to fat. If you actually look at what happens, it can contribute the glycerol backbone. But it's just what I said. It can contribute more fat or it can contribute less fat. It depends on everything that's there. I mean the way I describe metabolism is it's like American football. You know, you can follow the quarterback, but the key to the play may be downfield blocking or what everybody's doing. You can't make a statement like that. Sometimes it increases fat, sometimes it decreases. But most of all, the main take-in point here is that the data supporting a unique effect of fructose comes from studies where you have a high background carbohydrate. And the question is not should we convert, should we change some fructose in our diet to glucose? The question is, if we do that, is that comparable to taking out carbohydrate across the board and replacing it with fat? Which is better? Replace carbohydrate with fat, keep carbohydrate high and replace fructose with glucose. Experiment hasn't been done. Why not? Well, I don't think they want to know the answer. Well, you know the answer. Well, he'll point it out. You never really know the answer till you do the experiment. But I think we know, yeah. That's all the time we have. Please join me in thanking Dr. Feynman. Our next talk will start at 11 o'clock.


So we had a Photokina here, and who are you? Hi, my name is Jörn, I'm from RICO, and I'd like to show you today the new GR3. And we are really proud to show it here on the Photokina for the very first time. GR3 is the first camera in the GR line, which starts in 1996. This is all the GRs? This is all the GRs. They had GR1 in 1996. GR1, GR1S. Then the famous GR10, GR21. And you know, we started then from 2005 with the first GR digital. And all these were branded RICO? All these are RICOs, yeah. Original RICO cameras. So it's one of the RICO important products? It's one of the key products from RICO itself. It's a so-called Street Shot camera. So now they're very famous for doing photos in Street Live. And so we are very proud to showcase the first time the GR3. And the good thing about this new version is it has built an image stabilization system. And we gave the camera now 24 megapixel. And with this we have a higher solution. We have a faster autofocusing system. So everything is just in order to make the camera more fast, more proper for low light condition and all this kind of stuff. So what kind of sensor does it have? It's an APS-C sensor. APS-C, this size? APS-C is the size. It doesn't have any anti-alliance filter built in. So from that also very, very nice, very good in terms of sharpness. And because of the image stabilization we also can work against anti-alliencing systems. So yeah. I see that it has a slot on the top. But you're not doing a microphone jack, no? Do you have video? Well, the camera has video and it does full HD videos with 60 frames per second. It doesn't have a microphone jack yet. So in that case it's a photo camera. So you record extremely and merge it later? Yeah, you can do that. So is it always APS-C? It was always APS-C at May 2013. Before that we had a smaller sensor size. It was 1 to 1.4. But after that we developed for the camera the APS-C sensor. And so APS-C is not too small? No, APS-C is bigger than the Micro Four Thirds. It's bigger than Micro Four Thirds. So you can work with depth of field for example. You have a very strong lens built in. Yeah, you have a nice bouquet. It's awesome for low light condition. And because now of the three axis stabilization system you also can work properly in low light condition without any stress. So do you have a GR2 here? Yeah, this is GR2. Can you show a bit how it works? Yeah. So it's very compact. It's very compact. Do you call it point and shoot? Point and shoot camera in order to operate. Is it the best point and shoot in the market? It's one of the best of course. So from that point on it's one of the best cameras. And this one is so good. It has already lost the battery. This one goes on. Okay, now in order to operate the camera system you just have the auto mode of course. Every camera has that today. But then you can go to the wheel up here. You can select aperture, shutter priority and you have the ability to work with TAV which means time and aperture value that you can adjust them by this dialing function here. And here you have then the shutter speed. So it's a really comfortable working camera with. Does this play pop out? No, it's fixed. But you have a view field of 180 horizontal and vertical. So that means you can hold it up and you can look like this. It's still sharp. Or to the side, it's still keep sharp and you can't see everything. Also especially about this display it's so bright that you actually can see everything even in direct sunlight which is also nice about the camera system. So everything done for convenient photographing. Nice. Now let's change the shutter speed. There's a flickering going on because of the light. Pretty simple. It's like this. Die here for the aperture and here back side for the shutter speed. And you can do it with one hand. Nice. What's the lens? 28mm. A equivalent KV. And with F? F 2.8. Alright. So how much will it be? How much it cost the GR2 and how much will be GR3? Well, GR2 is in a moment round about 5.99 and there are no news about GR3 what it will cost. So we have to wait until it hears. And RICO is Pentax? RICO is Pentax. Pentax is RICO. RICO is actually head of Pentax. So Pentax is part of the RICO company and all the big cameras the DSLR cameras call RICO Pentax is the latest and the best. The latest and the best. It's always difficult to say because it depends by what you want to do. What is this one? This one is medium format. Medium format is the biggest in the moment. It's a very big sensor. It's a very big sensor. It has a size of 4.8 to 32.8. And a single card. Two card. So you can back up. You can back up of course. What's the how much it cost this camera? This one is for around 7000 with the lens. So this is all together like that. Are there many different lenses? We have around 20 lenses for this system on the market. And we have two jacks here. Two jacks here. We have a monitor like this. When does this one come in the market? This one is already on the market. Since when? 2014. Is it one of the leading medium format cameras out there? It's of course one of the leading medium format cameras there. There are a lot of medium format cameras out there. But we have some cameras that are very robust actually. They are very good in terms of quality with a 51 megapixel on solution. So that's a very good thing actually. And what is the sensor size here? This one is full frame. So we have a full frame with 36 megapixel. It has a 5-axis image stabilization built in. And the special thing about this camera is that you have this display on the back side. You can rotate it and slip it out. What is that rotation? It turns that way? That way? That way? Not all the way to the side? Not all the way to the side. But again like with the GR. It always keeps the center of your picture in the center in itself. Which is also quite nice. Now what you can do now is you can adjust in any direction and showcase everything. When does this one come in the market? This one is already in the market. This is the K1 Mark II. And we started with this in spring this year. We are proud of this camera. Dual card? Of course again. Some companies don't do dual cards in a way. Yeah, we do. Since when do you do full frame? We do full frame since 2016. So we have them on the market. Second generation of full frame camera. How many lenses fit? We have a couple of lenses fitting for this system. Because we have a lot of old lenses that also are suitable for this camera system. Because one goal for RICO was to create a full frame camera that is able to host all the full frame lens from the past. So this one is able to do that in a really proper quality. But before it was DSLR, right? Before it was with the mirror? It was always with the mirror. Yeah, so there is a distance. Yeah. But it fits? It fits. It fits all of that. And not only the PanTax one, also the third-party lenses fit to that. So all is fitting to this system. All right. And this is... Really nice about this camera. It's the same camera, but... Exactly. Very bright. Very bright, very strong, very sharp. It's the most sharp lens in the moment in our lineup. And the 50mm is one of the best lens we have in the moment. It's very fast in terms of auto-focusing, has a very nice bouquet. So it's a very good, very good lens. And you have a smaller one too, is it APS-C or...? This is APS-C, it's the KP. KP has a 5-axis stabilization system again. So here we have, so to say, the smaller version of the K1 sensor and 24 megapixel. We have a big display on the rear again. You can pop it up and down like this for 45 or 90 degrees. That's also possible. You have a built-in flash that can pop up. So everything nice about that. And you have several grips in the box. So you can choose if you want to have the big one or the smaller one. Or the smallest one. It just depends on how you want to do your photos. Depends how big your hands are, maybe. Or if you're just prepared to work with a smaller lens, like a fixed lens that we also offer, you just can combine and adjust it to your needs. So these two, do they do nice video? They both do video in full HD. They both have a microphone jack. So you can adjust a microphone to them. Full HD, 60p? Yeah, full HD, 30p. Because we are doing cameras and not video cameras in the first. No 4K for now. No 4K for now, just full HD for them. But you do have a 4K over here. With this... This. This is a 4K, right? This is a 4K, yeah. 4K 360. This is a 4K full frame. This is a 4K 360 camera. This is a Theta. This one is Theta VR. Theta VR, you have a built-in Android system. So you can use plugins for the camera that we launched this year. Run about two months ago. I mean built-in Android. Runs with an Android phone or running Android? It's running Android. Runs Android? It runs Android. And that for we have the ability to launch and to embed in this system our own plugins. So you can go to our plugin store and that for then you can connect the camera and you can download and upload your plugins to the camera system itself in order to operate the camera in the way you like to do it. So it has Wi-Fi, Bluetooth and you can do live streaming. It has Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, you can do live streaming. You can connect many cameras in a network in order to see what's going on on your construction place or if you want to do live stream from an exhibition you can live stream directly to YouTube 360. What's it connected to? It's a microphone here. It's a mic. It's a microphone for the Theta? It's a 360 degree mic. 360 degree microphone. So that's also something nice we have. Wow. So that expands the quality significantly. Exactly. And it just connects under. It just connects under which is good because it would be up here. It would be, you know, it would be take a lot of things that you can usually see. Nice. So actually this is kind of one of the leaders in 360 cameras is this model, right? This design. Yeah, it is. Maybe market leaders in terms of quantity even. Well, it's one of the most successful cameras in 360. Because, you know, the housing is very thin. It's very accurate in terms of stitching. It's very fast in stitching. Has a very fast data transfer and awesome picture quality and also very nice video quality. But it really runs Android in there. How do you see the UI? Exactly what you mean. So you say it is running Android. So maybe it's a special kind of headless Android or something like that. To be able to run these plugins and stuff. Yeah, I mean, usually Android is apps, right? Yeah, usually Android is apps. And specifically you go to this plug-in store and then you have several plugins. In the moment there are seven plugins available there. And you just go and put them in your theater and then you can operate the theater in the way you like to work with your theater. What kind of the plugins, for example? Well, we have, for example, face blur out. So you can shoot 360 photos. And the camera does it automatically to blur out faces. We have the live streaming plug-in so that you can live stream without cable with the camera to your smartphone. We have the holo builder, which is a third party plug-in. So you can put several theaters in your construction facility. And people can see how your construction is going on or your architect and want to see how it's going on there, what is the progress. You just can see it in real time. So it's live streaming abilities. Live streaming with many cameras. That's cool. I could, in theory, generate a 3D... Real-time 3D image dubbing. Yeah, in theory it could. And the good thing about this plug-in store, it's free access. So you can do your own plugins if you need something for your business in order to make your business more successful. Because that's always what we try. We try to help people to make their business and their things more successful. That's why we are here. That's why we talk to people. And that's why we listen to people. Many people came and said, OK, do something that we can create our own content on this camera in order to operate it. So a successful Photokina for you? Actually it is. My eyes are very good for Photokina. We have many, many customers who come, who ask about new cameras like the GR3, who ask about current cameras like K1 and who are interested in it. And of course you are curious about Theta and Theta360. We have many, many visitors because we have a lot of people doing presentation here. For example we have had Ben Clermont here on the booth who did a Theta life walk. So that was also something amazing actually to have him here and to show him what we are doing and to see what he is doing.