one final full slate for this 2022 season, although it's in 2023 that is always confusing for me as I write down 2022 on like podcast titles and stuff like that, cause it's still a 2022 season. Hopefully it's not confusing to you, but either way, week 18, coming around the corner, we're gonna break things down from a DFS perspective and let you know where we are looking at FanDuel to plug in our top plays for week number 18. This is the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDuel podcast network and numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer analyst for numberfire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Ghadoula. He is the senior managing editor of numberfire.com. Brandon, week 18, just around the corner, our final full podcast of the year. How you doing today? I'm good. I don't think that, well, I guess you do golf stuff too. So you've earned the right to this, but I mean, as someone who does golf content, I feel like anyone who's a little bit nervous about like the 2022 season happening in like the one week a year that happens like the fuck, you know, that's like adopting the calendar anxiety, but I was born in it. So. I feel like we've quoted that, that bane thing like seven times a year. Cause I try to avoid that impression. It's not very good at it, but I've done it at least, I think three times in the show this year, I avoided it this time because I have, I have self restraint, Brandon. I can't speak for the two of us here, but I obviously have self restraint. So I didn't do it this time. Well, I thought you were gonna say. You're adopted the self restraint. So like, you know, I thought you're gonna make a comment on how it's like, not really a relevant like saying anymore, which I would agree with. And, you know, getting up there in age a little bit. And it'll be relevant for our entire lives. Like people will be like, Oh, these geezers, not like in the British like he's a good geezer sense, but like the, Oh, these guys are old sense. That's always very confusing too, is like a geezer means something very different in British than it does in American. Well, you know, I was retweeting your link to the show. And I hastily tweeted 13 seconds after tweeting out covering the spread because I am organized and very much on top of everything.  So I just retweeted yours, but I tried to retweet it saying, talking with the good geezer about week, week 18. Well, I said join us, which, you know, is cool. But I used the down arrow emoji to point to the link. And I felt really old doing that. So that all kind of just ties into- Did you just an emoji made you feel old? Using an emoji made me feel old because I was like, I don't know if I'm doing this right. Quoting Bain made me realize that like, if my references are from, what was that like? 2012. Something like that. Long time ago.  Yeah, it's been a minute. But honestly, like we got to embrace the fact that we're declining, decaying, whatever word you want to use. We just got to embrace that. Just live in it, swim in it and deal with it. And hopefully use it to our advantage because we dealt with week 18 or week 17, plenty of times in the past, which means we kind of have an idea of how to handle this. We're going to break things down from a DFS perspective. Let you know how much motivation matters. Let you know which teams are going to push in week 18, which ones may not and get you ready for week 18 over on FanDuel. But first, a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast Feed, wherever you get your podcasts because we still have our weekly show going on throughout the playoffs. We'll have shows before Wild Car Round, every round, including Super Bowl. Well, it shows to break down our thoughts on those respective DFS slates right here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast Feed. You mentioned Golf is Back. The first show was this week. I'll be back on with you next week for whatever event is. I can't look that far ahead in the calendar. Gotta live day by day. Tom Vecchio also has a daily ISO every weekday here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast Feed. So find that wherever you get your podcasts, hit subscribe. And if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. Week 18, NFL Sunday Million is officially live on FanDuel Showcase, your NFL knowledge and construct your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap. Then follow along using FanDuel's live scoring feature to be fair share of $1 million in cash prizes, including a cool $200,000 to first place, all for just a $5 entry fee. There is no shortage of big names to build your line of surround. Sunday is approaching quickly. So head to FanDuel and submit your line of today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to FanDuel.com or download the FanDuel app for more details. Let's dig in here to the slate overview here for week number 18. And Brandon, when I look at the slate, I think it all comes down to motivation. You know, who's got it, who doesn't? How much does it matter? I think that is, and has to be our key focus, what stands out to you entering week 18? Yeah, I was going through a few notes and obviously that's playing a big part, but one thing that, you know, and like no disrespect or shade to anyone who maybe uses some optimizers to help build their lineups, but unless you're putting in like manual if then statements within this optimum, like it's not really going to account for how interconnected certain games are and certain teams are.  But, you know, there are a few more, we always talk about like connectedness and correlations, but there's also that like sort of multi-game correlation going on in a few spots this week. So just be certain not to overlook that entirely. And I think that that's important to mention because there are paths to that Cowboys game, like they could play their starters the entire game if the Eagles stay close. So there are paths to those being good plays. The problem is, Eagles are 14-point favorites. Tarah Taylor's probably going to start and I have a high opinion of Tarah Taylor, but Tarah Taylor with the skill position guys and stuff like that, without say Cohen Barkley, that's a little bit tougher. So, you know, you got to account for all that and have an idea of how that impacts things. So we're going to take one of our trends for today and actually stick it at the top of the show because it'll impact a lot of what we say throughout the podcast for today. So one of my trends is talking about week 18, perfect lineups, because I wanted to look at what actually happens in these final week, perfect lineups. So motivation is important. So I dug into the past four perfect lineups to see how prevalent motivation was for players and must-win games to make a perfect lineup. Now, perfect lineup is not the best way to do this because it's only going to show the outlier performance is not going to show you like, you know, who hit their 90th percentile. It's everyone who, you know, baked effectively on this slate. And they, like, will cherry pick after the fact guys who really weren't in the consideration set. Exactly. And so it's going to oversell, like, value plays always and to oversell potentially spots of no motivation. It did not do that with running backs, though. We'll talk about that in a second. But look at the past four years, the years since Fandal added a flex to see what the breakdown was. That gives us 36 players or defenses in perfect lineups. 17 of them had nothing to play for. Their teams had either been eliminated or were locked into their respective seat. 17 had what I would call high motivation. I'll use that term throughout here today. High motivation means their team was playing to make it in the playoffs, to win their division or to get a buy. I view buy as high motivation. So make the playoffs, win the division or get a buy. Two of those 36 were playing just for seating with no divisional title on the line. So a bit more than half of all players had motivation on their side in one way or another. But at running back, almost everybody had motivation. Of the nine running backs in a perfect lineup, eight of them had high motivation. Only one of them was on a team that had been eliminated. That guy was a shot penny last year. So not some scrub coming out of nowhere. You may hear stuff about, you know, a running back getting a lot of run because this team is eliminated. They might be giving him, you know, a showcase kind of game unless you know that he's gonna be like the feature back and that the team is going to have a legitimate offensive line out there. It's okay to be skeptical. These plays don't always pan out the way we think that they will. You're more likely to get a big day from a team in a high motivation spot at running back than a scrub filling in. And probably motivation should be a key factor at this position. So I think at that position for me, it matters more than any other spot on the slate this week. Motivation mattered a bit less at pass catcher. Only nine out of 14 wide receivers and three out of five tight ends were on teams, or sorry, nine out of 14 receivers and three out of five tight ends were on teams that had been eliminated. So non playoff teams, only one of the tight ends. There was a tight end the flex one of the year. So five tight ends. Only one of the five tight ends had anything to play for that week. So you can feel more okay about pass catchers on eliminated teams as long as you believe they'll get full run. Teams seem less likely to conserve a wide receiver than a running back. You also don't need them to have like a full workload to pay off there either. That's part of it as well. But also, as Brandon mentioned, it is cherry picking who did well in retrospect rather than predicting who will do well beforehand. The quarterback split was two to two. Two guys, the motivation, two guys with none. I tend to want my quarterbacks and must win spots. This shows it's not a bad thing, but it also might not be a must.  Defenses, three of the four had one, something on the line, only one had eliminated. So similar to running back, but not quite as drastic there, given the same. As far as scoring goes, I kind of went in with the hypothesis that scoring would be down because there are fewer guys pushing at full speed. That was actually not the case. The only spot where scoring the average score for a player in a perfect lineup was down from the full sample was a wide receiver. So receiver scored less, that might've been variance. Running back, scoring was actually up 0.9 points, which is pretty significant. So key takeaways for me were that motivation matters a lot at running back. It's of middling importance at quarterback and defense and it's less meaningful at pass catcher. Could still be meaningful for sure, but less meaningful there. Scores don't decrease. In fact, they actually increase, at least at running back. So I think all those things are impactful with how we build our lineups for this week. So to be in front of it all here, I'm just gonna list through teams with high motivation. So again, playing for either a first round by a divisional crown or playing for a, what was the other thing, buy divisional crown or to make the playoffs. Okay, so we had the Patriots, we had the Dolphins, the Steelers, Eagles playing for a buy, Seahawks playing to get in the playoffs, Packers, regardless of what happens playing to make it in the postseason. Teens with potential high motivation include the Bills, they would need the Chiefs to lose, otherwise they're fighting the Bengals to the two seed. The Cowboys need Eagles to lose and luckily they're playing at the same time. So at least for the start of their game, motivation for the Cowboys will be high. 49ers need Eagles to lose in order to get a shot at the one seed, but also they would need a win to maintain the two seed if the Vikings win in the early game. So 49ers will have high motivation at least at the beginning of their game similar to the Cowboys and the Lions need the Seahawks to lose in order to have high motivation. I think they'll still play a lot and I think they'll still push hard. I think the view is their playoff game. If the Seahawks win, I don't think Dan Campbell's laying down for anyone. So I'm viewing the Lions as being full steam ahead. Teams that have seeding on the line, right now the Ravens do, although that could change if the, or sorry, the Ravens do regardless. They have seeding on the line regardless. If they lose, the Chargers will have nothing on the line in the 4 p.m. games. So if the Ravens lose, the Chargers are locked into their seed would be very risky in terms of trusting their skill players. Bengals can get the two seeds still. Vikings can get the two seed in the NFC as well. Teams that are locked into their seed right now are the Bucks and the Giants. So they're locked in no matter what and the Chargers could join them depending on what happens with the Ravens. So that's a lot of situations to think through. But Brandon, looking at the data. I will forget many of these throughout the show. Correct. Looking at the data, digging into the slate, what stands out to you as far as how you're handling motivation for this week? Yeah, I think the key one obviously is running back. Running back as we know, and we can compare this to wide receiver straight up because you mentioned that receiver scoring was down a bit. Running back scoring up a little bit. Well, running back is a volume based position. Yeah, there are like 70 yard touchdowns that exist, but otherwise it's largely tied to volume and receiver not nearly as much. Might not be as much volume. So I think that I'm pretty safe with just sticking primarily with the running backs with motivation. Again, I think that's the main takeaway. I think for quarterbacks it's interesting because there are some who can, some of these like final week games, I want to call them week 18, but it's really, it's so annoying still because we don't have a large sample where the final week of the season was week 18. So you're like factoring in like week, if it's before this year, then week seven, just frustrating stuff.  So like there's a chance for like punt level quarterbacks with nothing to play for to put up a big game, but I think that's probably, and I don't know based on who's in these lineups, but it's probably tied to like situations where they're not just throwing to fifth and sixth string like receivers. You're talking about the guys who made it with no motivation? A quarterback, yeah. One was Cam when he had like three rushing touchdowns in week 18, week 17. The other one, might have been Kirk Cousins in the game where the Vikings had already been eliminated. Only just sorry, I didn't have it pulled up. I should have.  Probably throwing to some. Does he? Throwing to some guys with like a pulse. Oh, sorry, I was wrong. The other guy was, we're kind of digging back in the archives here because it's a sample of 2018 to 2021. So you might not remember this name, but Josh Allen back in 2018. So, all right, that makes sense. So, yeah, it's not really a week where you're gonna wanna punt a quarterback, I don't think. That's like the main takeaway. But yeah, I mean, I think this, you summed it up right where, or in a way that makes a lot of sense based on what you told me about the stats, but also just sort of anecdotally and thinking logically, you want your running backs to get tied to volume on teams with something to play for, which in theory are generally teams that are good scoring points, not just after thoughts, quarterbacks can take your leave, but probably lean toward, I would say over as the sample grows, more of our gonna see more quarterbacks with stuff on the line to play for. And then tight ends, receivers, that was a bit of a high variance position. So, that makes sense to me. Yeah, and I'm pretty comfortable with that because I've tried to force in receivers with something in the line before, and it's been tough at times, I think it's tougher there than a lot of spots. I like that I had the freedom to deviate when need be. Like you were slacking about Rashid Shaheed before the show, perfect example. I think that he's actually fine this week.  And I think that's reassuring for me. So, I think that we are on the same page there. Let's dig now into injuries. And injuries of course highlighted here by teams that may be sitting guys. I mentioned before, the Bucks and Giants locked into their seed. Chargers could do the same if the Ravens lose in the opening window. So, I'm probably not gonna use anybody from any of those teams. That could be a mistake, but that's where I'm at right now. I think that's how I'll do it. There are gonna be a few teams that we get wrong and just be like, it was a mistake not to play. Sure. Like the Chargers, right? Sure. But was it the best process? As we know now, it's not really the best process to load up on them. If you think you need to be different, you can. But it's what a 14 game slate, you can find a lot of ways to be different. All of the popularity numbers are gonna be depressed, especially at quarterback. You're gonna have so many options to pick from. I don't think that, you know, be different without being dumb. Correct, as always. Jalen Hertz was limited Wednesday as he works back from a shoulder injury. Should be able to return this week. We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section. Lamar Jackson is another practice on Wednesday, likely putting Tyler Huntley in position to start against Sunday against the Bengals. This team has struggled outside of the running backs under Huntley, but it is an important game, especially if they do decide to play Bill's Bengals at some point. I don't think they will. So Raven's, I am treating as if they're playing just for seeding. I think the fact that they're gonna play Huntley in this game kind of is an indicator of that's how they view it too, but that's how I'm viewing this. Will you go to JK Dobbins or anybody else assuming Huntley plays here? The most interesting name would be Dobbins. He's got four games that's coming back. 14.3 carries, 0.5 targets per game on four routes per game, averaging 100 scrimmage yards. I have as expected Fando points and his actual Fando points right about the same at like 11 and a half. It's like, it's fine. Do I think that he can really burn me ever? Not really, at what's the seller, 69 I think. You know, I don't really do, I don't do as much separating as I used to between like head-to-head plays and tournament plays. I think Dobbins is like a very viable head-to-head play, but not so much a tournament play. I still don't think that there's enough upside even to play him in a head-to-head, but that's just kind of how I view it with what his role is and what we know that this offense is ceiling can be. Yeah, ceiling matters in head-to-heads too, which is what you were alluding to there. I think that's important to keep in mind. Dobbins I think would be in play if we could assume he'd keep the same workload, but also they mentioned that Gus Edwards, John Harbaugh said after their game last week that Gus Edwards should have gotten more run and I think that might happen again. So we know he won't get passing game work. I think that's enough where, and we know the offense probably not gonna be super explosive. I think there's enough there to be skeptical of even J.K. Dobbins. Skylar Thompson seems likely to start for the Dolphins in a must-win game. Teddy Bridgewater has a dislocated pinky. He was able to get in a limited session Wednesday. Doesn't sound like he was throwing deep at all though. So I'm assuming Thompson will play. How does Skylar Thompson alter your view of the Dolphins' skill guys here? He hasn't been good with his passing work. That worries me. A good bit. I went back to that week five game when he came in and played extended time. It was a blowout. So like Miles Gaskin had, I think, five targets to be second on the team. But if you look at numbers, through the first three quarters, Thompson did target Tyree Kill seven times. Chase Edmonds where he most of Trent Surefields twice each.  I still don't know if like, true Tyreek Hill is unlockable with Skylar Thompson at 86. I think that's really hard to justify. He didn't really throw it at Jalen Waddle a ton. But Waddle had a much more appropriate salary. I think if I had to play a pass catcher, I'd probably take the savings. Assuming Waddle's good to go. But I'm probably going to the running backs here with Jeff Wilson. I think Wilson is a pretty good play this week. I think he is one of my, he's my favorite value running back for this week. Jeff Wilson, Saller and Fandwall. I think if we had done the salary scroll for a recap podcast, we probably would have had him as like a borderline right down at $6,200. Because in the games where he has played as the leadback, he has 13.7 carries per game, 4.7 targets per game, 86.3 yards per game. That's all pretty good. And last week with Tua being out, they leaned heavily on Wilson. I think 15 carries and seven targets. Didn't have a lot of production, but you can run a bit on this Jets defense. We saw Kenneth Walker do well against them last week, Travis Etien did well against them as well. So I think Wilson, I would say that Thompson is like not bad enough for all of Mitt Wilson for my player pool. That's the way I'd phrase it. Yeah. And we're going to have like, look, there are going to be come Sunday, a few backup running backs, thrust into big workloads at like a 5,000 salary or I think Jonathan Williams, like if we don't get either Washington running back, he's, I think he's 57, like just find a way to get up to Jeff Wilson. I'd agree to that as well. Speaking of, you mentioned, yeah. Okay. Commander is going to start Sam Howell this week at quarterback. We have Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson both missing practice on Wednesday. We know Howell will play. We could also get a backfield without Robinson and without Gibson, though I haven't seen a lot to suggest that Robinson will sit out this week despite the mispractice. Would you trust any of the running backs if Robinson and Gibson were out and any pass catchers with Howell getting the start? So William's salary is 5,000. I was thinking of, I hate the final week because you spend more time figuring out like playoff scenarios and timing of games than focusing on everything. But Corey Clement is 57 if there's like no James Conner which in that case definitely find the salary to get up to Wilson. But Williams, I mean 46% snap rate last week, nine carries, five targets. He was involved the week before as well, a decent amount at 5,000. Like I guess you could make the case there but I'm probably out. I think Johan Dotson at 59 is somewhat appealing because I got to ask you this because you're the quarterback guy and you do a lot of good work with quarterback prospecting. I think like from what I know of Sam Howell, he's kind of fun. I stashed him in a dynasty league for sure. Is this like a huge downgrade or is this just kind of like status quo? So I joked on Twitter that the commanders who if they're eliminated just start their best quarterback. And then I said, this is a joke, I think. I liked Sam Howell a lot because he's kind of like he's a de-gaffer a little bit. He'll chuck a deep. He has terrible pocket presence. Like he's gonna get sacked a lot. So that's one thing, like outliersly high sack rate but he will chuck a deep, he will run a bit. Not to the point where I'll use him at $6,000 but like if he's gonna launch it, I think that Dotson is at least in play at $59, scary Terry is at $7,000, a little high but Dotson I think is at least viable because Howell has some arm talents and he will chuck a deep. I think they're gonna let him show what he can do in this game. It is concerning, they decided to stick with Heinecke over Sam Howell when they had the chance to go with Howell. Went over Howell. I think that that is an indicator of like, yeah, where we're not super, super sold in this guy and it's seen in practice every day, that matters. But I thought he was fun. He ran a lot in the previous season, played pretty well in the previous season overall, I think. So I could see using Dotson given that, Howell's not some total, total scrub, I don't think at least. Yeah, and I don't care about like, I try to suppress all the feelings but it does, this has a feeling of like a Terry McCormick, like 130 or two touchdown game. Yeah. Somehow people were playing a lot of them or something. Oh gosh. It just kind of feels that way. It's a nightmare. Any Williams for you? No. If there's no, okay. Because Williams is 28. They have Jared Patterson, who they called up last week in the practice squad. Patterson was like, I think he broke records at Buffalo in college. I could be totally wrong. I think he ran like a billion times. Yeah, but they actually drafted Patterson or was he undrafted? They signed him as an undrafted free agent initially. He's been on the practice squad the past couple of years. What? Stuff like this is like, this is so unlike any other slate. So I don't feel like it's just so different. Like, I don't think they'll lean on Patterson, but I think he'll do enough where it keeps Williams from being a great play. Cause I think Patterson would get the early down work if Robinson couldn't go. I think Robinson will probably play, but I'm okay. I'm missing out there, but Dodson I think is viable for sure. Especially cause like, Washington and Dallas don't like each other. I think that matters to a certain extent too. My mom is a Cowboys fan. My cousin is a Washington fan. They always have a, he's in Georgia. So he sends her like pecans or pecans, depending where you're from. If the Cowboys win, she sends him, I think a 12 pack of like, Nickelodeon or something like that. So there are high stakes in this game, even if the commanders are officially out of it. No disrespect to your family, but that might be a worse bet than the ones we make with poor stakes. Potentially, although I'll take both if people want to send me pecans and beer, that's fine. Tyler Lockett missed practice Wednesday with a leg injury. He is considered day to day that we did return to that game. It's a must win game for the Seahawks. So they have a lot on the line. I forgot to look, are Seahawks? Yeah, Seahawks are in your trend section. So we'll talk about them later on. The 49ers designated Eli Mitchell to return from IR. He's not activated yet, but this means that he could be. The good thing is we'll get word of this Saturday. If he's activated Christian McCaffrey sat out Wednesday due to an ankle injury. Debo Samuel practicing in full for this week. He's likely available if they decide they want to roll him out. The 49ers could still get a first round buy if they win and the Eagles lose and they'll need a win to keep the two seed if the Vikings win the early window. So is that enough for you to be on McCaffrey in this game? Yeah, like I think I, this was basically my slate overview is like in yours as well, just to different degrees, but like this is the crux of the week. Are you going to have fail safes? Are you going to have like, are you going to be able to swap out your lineups? If, you know, you have McCaffrey slated in there at 10,000 salary and what are your alternatives? If you want to, you know, divest from this game plan, are you going to be able to? It's just a natural part of week 18. But I'm going to assume before lock that the two teams favored by at least seven and a half will win against teams that don't have anything to play for. So that'll put me on the 49ers. And then we got to wonder too, if they just blow out the Cardinals and if they're going to throw the ball at all, because obviously I like Christian McCaffrey, he's the most sort of obvious play that there is even if Mitchell's back. But in games with Brock Purdy and Nodibo Samuel, Brandon Ayuk has a 28% target share. I think he's 44 yards away from like the 1,000 mile mark. 44 yards itself, it's not going to like do enough, but he's been getting a lot of work. George Kittle, it's basically just funneling through McCaffrey Kittle and Ayuk. Ayuk's salary is pretty decent, 71, 72, 71. So like I love McCaffrey. I don't really see a way that they don't have anything to play for. I think the bigger thing is like, do you like Ayuk? Do you like Kittle at all? I think their salaries are probably too high for me, given the potential game script here. I think that's my major concern because I don't expect the Cardinals to do a whole lot. So that pushes me to stay, be wary of them. One thing that I will do is I have a couple if then levers that I think I'm going to pull with the 49ers. First one is if they activate Mitchell, I will downgrade McCaffrey a bit because Mitchell is very good and they could go back to the game plan they had earlier on this year. They could blow up the Cardinals, get the job done while still keeping McCaffrey at around a 65% snap rate. So if Mitchell gets activated Saturday, I will downgrade me. Totally pushing him out, but I will downgrade him. Also, if Debo plays, that to me is an indication that they're going for it and they're going full bore. And so we get like a Shefty Bomb at 11.52 PM Eastern on Saturday nights that Debo sandals expect to play, I would up my confidence in McCaffrey then because it implies to me that they're going to try really hard because they could set Debo out of this game enough, have him fully healthy. Would you play Debo then? No, but I would up my confidence that they play hard which is up my confidence in McCaffrey. I think they'll play hard to start regardless because of the Eagles thing, but they could play hard and beat the Cardinals while still holding McCaffrey back a bit if they can. So that to me is why I want to use as like the levers for me here. Shoot voting one lineup before lock is McCaffrey in it? Probably yes. What about you? I would like to be there, but I don't know if I'm going to get there. I would say that that is dependent on the stuff that I talked about. Like if Mitchell gets activated, probably not. For one lineup, if I have like five, he'd be in like two still. But that would be the way I'd handle it. If Mitchell is out and Debo gets a Shefty bomb, then McCaffrey is definitely in there and he's probably in like three or four out of five lineups then at that point. That's the way I'd handle it there. Tony Pollard got in a full session Wednesday after sitting on week 17. The Cowboys can still not only win the division, but also get a buy if they win and the Eagles lose. The Eagles are our 14 point favorites against the Giants. So I think we'll see scoreboard watching here from the Cowboys is kind of what I'm thinking here. Are you willing to use Pollard? Because there's a chance that the Eagles game stays close in which case they have full incentive to push or are you wary of Cowboys under the seemingly likely scenario that the Eagles win at the same time? Yeah. So this is a huge risk. And look, there's no correct answer here. This feels like one of those where if the Eagles are up, you know, 17 and a half time and the Cowboys pull their starters, you're going to have people say, I knew this was going to happen. Right. If that game stays close or Dallas just doesn't scoreboard watch and they lean on these guys, it was going to be like, I knew that they weren't going to scoreboard watch. They said they were going to play their starters. There's just no way of knowing. And so it comes down to a personal preference of how you view things in terms of like the probabilities of effectively, we know the Eagles are going to play, but how likely is it that the Cowboys play all four quarters? And this is one of the spots where if I'm playing, like if I'm playing Jalen Hertz or if I'm playing, hopefully we get Miles Sanders full, I don't really want to pair that with Cowboys because those don't really go together. But if I'm trying to be different- I mean, it could if it's like a shootout for Giants Eagles. But will that happen? Right. If the Eagles lose, it's going to be because they get stifled. They're often struggles, yeah. So you were talking about probabilities. I think you can use betting markets as a guardrail there. The implied odds of Giants win that game are 14.08%. I have it at 16.02%, it's a bit higher than that. But you can kind of use it as like a guide. If you think that the Giants have a 16% chance to win, that increases the odds that Cowboys push. So maybe you use Dak Prescott in a couple lineups as a result of that. I'm not really into Dak this week because I respect Washington. I think they'll play hard on that game. And also it's an outdoors game. Dak hasn't shown like gobs and gobs of upside to begin with this year. So probably not getting to Dak, but like maybe I'd consider like a 15% exposure to Tony Pollard, you know, kind of meshing that with the win odds of the Giants. And also like there are spots where the Giants lose, but still keep that game close throughout. So I think 16% is a fair number to put it at, to give yourself wiggle room because like Pollard doesn't smash in every situation when they keep it close. But I think that that's kind of the way I wanna, you know, use betting markets as kind of like a guardrail for me. Yeah, I think that's like the biggest point. If you want like to round it up to like 25% because, you know, there's a good chance that, you know, the Giants can lose, but it's not a complete block. There's also a chance that the Cowboys don't completely scoreboard watch. We don't know what teams really are gonna do. But I like these guys. I really like CD lamb like in a vacuum, but I don't think I'm gonna get there as like a core play. Do you prefer a lamb or Pollard if you're doing the 25% assumption rule? Probably lamb because I prefer more running backs than I prefer receivers this week. That's the exact thought process I would have as well. I agree with you. Receiver's tough running back, not quite as much. The Cardinals will have Deandre Hopkins this week. He's already been ruled out. James Connormous practice with knee and shin injuries. Cole McCoy is out, so David Blau will start a second consecutive game. So we may get a backup running back here. You mentioned Corey Clements. Keontae Ingram should also be active. Does it matter with so many key guys out and facing a 49ers defense? Not for me. I agree. Justin Jackson, the ball carrier, got in a full practice on Wednesday for sitting out last week. Christian Watson, limited Wednesday for the Packers. We'll talk through that game in the Bookmaker section and let's do that right now. We'll start things off here by talking about the Packers and the Lions Fandwall decided to bless us by keeping this game on the main slate. Right now the Packers are four and a half point favorites total is 49 and a half. Massive total for this game. Now the Lions, if the Seahawks win, will be eliminated from the playoffs. But I kind of feel like, based on Dan Campbell's like personality, they're going to go regardless. And I think that they'll treat this as their playoff game. If they don't a shot to advance, they can keep their division rival out. So I am treating both these teams as if they'll motivation, regardless of what happens earlier on. How are you viewing this game for stacking? Yeah, so I started putting together positional environment scores. And they depend on like for quarterbacks, it's things like over, under, wind, like past defense, that kind of stuff. And I've been doing this, I started like halfway through the season, but I've not seen a score that even comes close to what Aaron Rodgers has this week. Cause it looks at like, so based on these scores, which is it compares to the rest of the slate. And this total is so much higher, it's six points higher than any other game on the slate. That bumps him up a lot. Obviously a great past defense matchup. So I want access to the Packers, but I don't quite know if I have the heart to build my lineups around Aaron Rodgers necessarily. I love the receivers for the Packers. And I said receivers, I love Christian Watson, but I also love my guy. I won't pin him on you ever again, but Alan Lazard, talk more about them later. I think we both will actually in loves, but they have very good, very similar numbers, market shares, outputs, I think that's fun. And if you can sell me on Liking the Lions and who to like, then I'll love this game a lot. Shark and a Monrock, pretty easily. Yeah, probably not outdoors on the road. I don't agree with like the golf can play on the road outdoor sentiment, given how well he played, like for an efficiency perspective against both Carolina and the Giants. When he's had to monitor our health, he's been very good outdoors. Which I would say, yeah. There was a different game too, the Jets game. He had the second best per dropback efficiency against the Jets this year of any quarterback. So he's been fine, but will he post 26 FanDuel points? Probably not. So that's why I'm okay not going there. I think that the Rogers angle is interesting at least, at the very least interesting. Last week, he had a rushing touchdown and still scored just 17 FanDuel points, but they had a kick return touchdown, a defensive touchdown, that game was bananas out of hand. And like, I don't think this game will be. I'm like hesitant to admit this, but I have a model that has the Lions favored. So I think this game will be really close. What are you laughing at? Do you know the most FanDuel points Aaron Rodgers has scored? It's less than 20. I know. It's less than 20. I don't know what it is, but I know it's less than 20. I mean, it's like 19.36, I think. He won me a toilet ball match up last week, though. So shout out to Aaron Rodgers, the true king. He's not had multiple passing touchdowns and four straight. This team is just like, it's such a different team from the Packers historically. They have running backs that they can lean on. Let's talk about those running backs. Oh, wow. Okay, both sides. Jamal Williams last week had a huge run. I don't expect that to happen. No, Justin Jackson, his salary shot back up to 7,000. No dice. DeAndre Swift, really good target shares. Like really good target shares. 7,100 dollars. The sample I have is on six games with DJ Charks snaps back up. Swift is second on the team with six targets per game in that sample, with 1.5 red zone targets in the games, snap rates, you know, 8.6 carries, but 5.6 targets per game, 73.4 yards per game. But he's had some upside in there too. I don't think he's out of consideration. I think that his role sucks. And I don't expect that to get better. But like, you know, that much past catching is worth quite a bit. So I'm probably not going to get there, but I also don't want to totally cross him off. On the packer side of things, Aaron Jones, I was checking optimizers today. He is pretty high and I don't really understand why. I know he had 111 yards last week. And I know this is a must win game, but they've been playing must win games the past month and that's when Jones' snap rate has gone down. He is very clearly not healthy. And I think it's a chronic like shin injury and I don't think that's going to change. So I expect Jones to maintain the role he has had the past month, unless he gets a full practice in on Friday, because he has not done that since like October. So if he gets a full practice in, I'll fire him up. But as of right now, I expect him to keep the same role and that role has not been very good. He's a great player, but his role stinks. So I think most likely scenarios, I don't use any running backs in this game and just load up on the wide receivers. What about you with the running backs? So we're going to want to find ways to get different without being dumb. And while the process itself is not perfect for like a DeAndre Swift, A.J. Dylan's stack, it is a way to get exposure to by far the best game of the week in terms of over-under. With- In terms of motivation too, yeah. In terms of motivation with, yeah, like roles that we wouldn't love in a vacuum, but for two reasonable salaries, like I think that you would be bedding, you'd be like hedging against an Amon Ra, DJ Chark, you know, Watson, Lazard, eruption. And I don't really want to play Jamal Williams. I love him as a person. He seems very fun. Yeah. You know, if this game is high scoring and Williams scores twice and gets you like 18, 19 points, that's not usually what we're looking at, especially on like a huge slate. But I think that you could consider the running backs in this game to get access to the best game of the week. How much is it like, because they're not core plays for you, correct? I would consider, so I would consider this in a single entry, but not necessarily like my primary lineup that I would be playing in like more contests, because then I'm saying like, this is going to be the best game of the week, but it's not going to be the most obvious route necessarily. And then I'm saving some salary. I could build around higher salary receivers if I want like a Jamar Chase, if I want to play like a George Kittle and save, Kittle was putting up 90 and a touchdown and nobody else, because tight end is horrific this week. I think that you can make the case for that. And you wouldn't really look at any specific player in that lineup and say like, this was terrible process. Just because this game is so much better than the rest. Speaking of narratives and speaking of tight end, got a little narrative for you by yourself. Shane Zilstra, Minnesota native, likely grew up a Vikings fan, probably hates the Packers. Is that enough? Likely. I haven't checked. New London Spicer is I believe on the Eastern part of Minnesota, so he could be a Packers fan, but that'd be betrayal. So what if they call it Brandon Zilstra from the practice squad? How about then? Can I get you on the other Zilstra instead? No. No? Okay. What about Jamal Williams' revenge game? See, now you're talking. I'm not using any of these guys to be clear. This is a joke. Zero running back to it. I'm not going to make that clear in case someone takes it seriously, but it is a joke. But like zero running backs at all? Most likely to use Swift because of the past catching role is actually legitimately, I do not expect his role to get better, but where are you? Just week 18, it should just get better. Why not? Sure. Yeah, magically, despite the fact they've been in high leverage games for two and a half months, you know? Yes, magically. I think I agree with you though, where I'm more like they use AJ Dillon than Aaron Jones in this game. And where are you with Rogers? Like, give me like a percentage of lineups. 20. I think that's fair. It's more likely to be under than over though. It's juice towards the under with that one. I do love the receivers though. I love Christian Watson. His salary is $6,900. Limited last week, but I think that was kind of predictable. Got in a limited practice on Wednesday. I feel like he has a shot to go bananas here, given we talked about freaking Alan Lazard and his don't feel role. Watson last week in a limited fashion had three downfield targets. So I think he could go nuts. So I love Christian Watson, love Shocker, DJ Chark. I know I'm a parody of myself, but I think both those guys and Amon Ra saying Brown as well, phenomenal plays. Amon Ra operates in the slot a lot. I think that the Packers will give him a lot of attention the same way they do with the Vikings where they had a plan when Jefferson was in the slot. I think they'll do the same with Amon Ra. Jiro Alexander on the outside doesn't bother me too much with Shark, but I think that the receivers here are the best way. My favorite way to get exposure to this game. Let's move now to the Giants at the Eagles where the highest implied total on the main slate belongs to Philadelphia. They are 14 point favorites against the Giants who are expected to sit their starters. Total is 42 and a half. That puts the Eagles implied total at 28.25. They need a win to lock up not just the one seed, they could be as low as a five seed if they lose this game depending on if the Cowboys win their game. The 49ers win stuff like that. So how are you handling the Eagles offense in this game? What a, what a Philly debacle that would be if they entered up the five seed. People like, when I was tweeting about Miles Sanders in a high leverage game entering week 16, people were like, oh, they don't care about this game. And I'm like, they should. Like I know that the Giants might not play their starters week 18, but they should. And now we're here in a must win game suddenly.  The Giants facing a team that sat their starters and cost the Giants a playoff appearance a couple of years ago, you know, they're not going to play, say, Kwame Barkley, Daniel Jones. And I'm guessing most of the guys in that team are not on this team, but hey, it's a narrative baby. Well, Lem, talk to me about the Giants against the spread against the Eagles over the past 13 years. I was in 16 years, but okay, you can narrow the sample if you want. Small sample boy. Yeah, I think that there is a huge ceiling for the Eagles. I think there's also a bit of a lower floor than we'd like, depending on how they play this game. They don't have to have Jalen Hertz throw 40 times. They're going to keep it on the ground. That puts me on Miles Sanders. I want to see a full practice for him by Friday, but if I do, he's going to be one of my favorite plays of the week. I know that he's got competition and he loses some high leverage work, but the salary of 6,700 is still low enough to account for all that. And at times we've seen him be leaned on a bit more. He's also very good. Yeah. So he would be one of my favorite plays. I don't know if I'm going to get to the receivers, but that does not include Dallas Goddard. I think he makes a lot of sense as a tight end play. Really good individual matchup, 6,200. He could bust open the slate relative to everyone else because he's very good and has that ability. So I think I'm mostly on Sanders and Goddard, which is the complete inverse normally because I play Hertz in the receivers, but I think it makes sense this week to be on Sanders and Goddard primarily. I think the practice reports you alluded to are the key thing here. If Hertz gets into full practice by Friday, I will be pretty high on him. I think the fact that he got in practices last week implies to me that he's decently healthy. So I feel better about that there. There was a Shefty report on, I think Sunday saying that Hertz should be good to go. That implies he's healthier. If he gets in full practice and on Friday, I'm in. They said today, Thursday, is the key day for him to determine how healthy he is, how he's throwing the ball, stuff like that. So to be determined on him, but if we get full go, I'm in and I'd be very happy with him. If we get full practice by Thursday or Friday, is he your top play?  I feel better about Hertz than McCaffrey personally. I would too. Yeah, I agree with you. You might be able to get both honestly, but it's tough for sure. Yeah. I would love Hertz. I would also love Miles Sanders. I wanna echo your thoughts on him. They've up to snap rate an important game so far this year it seems like. Last week it did get reduced, but like you said, the knee injury coming to that one didn't practice last Wednesday, did practice this Wednesday. So I think that's encouraging for him. Probably need positive script. The Giants, I would bet Leonard Williams doesn't play. If I were them, I wouldn't play Leonard Williams. He's very good. That would open up a lot in terms of the ground game for the Eagles. So I think Sanders very in play. The only area where I disagree is I like Devontae Smith quite a bit. Devontae Smith's salary is $7,700 and this correlates with the Hertz stuff. I'm a little bit higher in him than you may be. But I'd have faith in him. Salary is $77 for Devontae Smith. AJ Brown also very acceptable at $83. So I think I'm a little bit higher on the past catchers, but I also understand why you may have a little bit of hesitance there. I think that's valid and fair. I think what I'm trying to say is normally I'd look at this game and say I want Hertz, I want Smith, I want Brown. This week I'm more like I would, I'm cool with Sanders and Goddard primarily. I still love them. And if we get full practice from Hertz, I will play both receivers, but my exposure levels of the Eagles is just gonna flip because I'm just gonna have more. I never play Miles Sanders ever. I think I'm gonna play a lot of them this week. I agree with you. I'm asking this out of obligation. Any Giants for you or no? No. I agree. Okay, the Bills have a pretty high implied total this week of 25 for their match with the Patriots. Obviously the Bills dealing with a lot of stuff with the DeMar Hamlin situation. There was a report just now that he has apparently like solid neurological function. So that's like the best report we've gotten on DeMar Hamlin ever since that time. He's like responsive. So that's awesome. That matters a lot more than this game. So honestly that's just like, kind of gives you chills to hear that. And it's good to hear that he's trending the right direction. Total for this game is 42 and a half. The Bills favored by seven right now. If the Chiefs win Saturday night, the Bills cannot get the one seed, but they could lock up the two seed with a win and ensure their second round game is at home. And they would also not face Lamar Jackson or Justin Herber in the first round. I think there's a lot of value in that personally. So I think they'll push the Patriots though on the opposing side do need to win to make the playoffs, they don't need to win. They could win with help or lose and get help, but they need to win. Is this game one you can see yourself stacking? Define stacking, like Patriots as well? Yeah. Who are we playing on the Patriots? I don't know, man. One, okay, so I'm like very down on receiver in tight end this week. I think that it's a horrible week for both positions, all things considered. There are some names that I like, but if we didn't have, if we get no Devonte Parker, although Parker was limited in practice Wednesday, Tyquan Thornton's role has been really good. He's been playing, running over 90% of the routes, getting some work, salaries 5,400, I love that. When I Jack productions agrees. Love that. But I don't know, I think if we get Parker back, like the role increase coincided exactly with Parker's absence, I would be a little bit hesitant there. I just don't know what to, I never know what to do with the Patriots. I don't know if there's a high enough upside for them individually to wanna get there. Their path to winning this game might be by keeping Buffalo off the field. Yeah. And they might be able to do that. I think that they're physical enough to do that. And Damien Harris being healthy, I think helps them because Ramandra is banged up. So that's enough where I'm not gonna use Ramandra or Harris because I think with Ramandra being banged up, I think they want a legitimate split there. So I think that's, go ahead. Their snap rate last week, Ramandra, 56% Harris, 49%. Yeah. And with Thornton, if you could guarantee me he would keep the same issues last week, I would be all in at 54 because he had three or five, that's a big difference, but three or five downfield targets in that game, seven overall targets. I think he's a fun player cause he's like the one guy they have who has juice. Jacobi Myers is a good football player, but like not juicy. He's not juice OB Myers. He had a jump OB. Thornton had a 22 yard eight odd. I have six downfield targets, which for me is 10 plus. That's fun. But yeah, I just, maybe I go there anyway if I'm like playing high salaried bills just to bring it back, but... What about Jacobi at 65? We're not like, I don't think that either of us are anti Jacobi, we're just not like pro Jacobi in terms of like a huge ceiling standpoint and his salary. I don't wanna like disrespect someone here, but like I don't wanna put them in like the Deontay Johnson bucket, but it just feels like there's like a, you know, there's a floor of targets, but I don't really know if it's ever worth it. But the salary's not like upper fives, it's always in the sixes. That's usually my issue as a salary, yeah. Yeah, but like again, if you're playing the angle of a high scoring game, you could do worse than playing Jacobi Myers in this spot. I just don't think it's like a priority. So I guess the question is, how high are we on this game as a stack as a whole? Well, one final question for you first. Hunter Henry at $5,000. It's a low salary for a tight end. He's actually had some yardage upside recently, which I think is encouraging. And in their most recent game, Hunter Henry played every single snap, 100% snap rate for them, for him against Miami, 52 yards on six targets. I think that he is very viable as a tight end and I'm gonna use him. I can say that with definitiveness and I have not used him outside of Thanksgiving slate at all this year. Yeah, I'm there because tight end is horrendous, it is. How are you viewing Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs, Gabe Davis, and maybe Dawson Knox? I like Allen plenty. I think that he's gonna run as much as he wants to. I do think that unfortunately, I don't know how much this offense will click based on everything that's going on. Yeah. I think for that reason, it has me a little bit lower on this game than there would be otherwise if the stakes were like the same. But I could also see them just coming out and blowing the doors off the Patriots in response to everything. So, it's not just that subjective, but I'm not worried about like the matchup at all for Allen. I don't ever love Stefan Diggs at his salary anymore just because this team can like spread the ball just enough. But, and then I know that you're always on Gabe Davis. Talk to me about Gabe. I might not be. Just knowing the way the Patriots tend to play defense is they like to have their like top corner on the second wide receiver and then effectively like bracketing the top guy. I don't think that's super conducive to a Gabe Davis script or a Gabe Davis situation. The problem is like the guy who would benefit is, Isaiah McKenzie, even McKenzie Snapper was really bad in the build, the bearish game in part because like it was a bad weather game. They were running a whole lot in that one. But like, I don't know. So, can you use Allen naked? Is that like, is that egregious given that he has like legitimate pass catchers? Could you go Dawson Knox at 57? I don't know. It's a tough one, tough one for me. I could go, I wouldn't go Knox if tight end was better. I'm open to it just because it is what it is. And we know that like he can score touchdowns in this team. You know, if you're playing the Bills, if you have interest in Josh Allen, you're going to assume that they're going to play well.  So I think if 57 makes sense, New England can give up the deep ball, which unfortunately has me a little bit interested in Gabe Davis, which is never bad because we know that Davis could be the wide receiver one in the slate. He could also be the wide receiver, like 108, but. Nowhere in between. Ever. Basically. So I don't know. I think this is like a fine game stack where you'd go Allen, not playing both tight ends together. So like, it's a tough one to figure out. Yeah. I guess. If we get clearance that Parker won't play, would you use Thor and then or no? Yeah. Oh, okay. I probably would do. It's a tough game. I think it's intriguing for sure, but it's definitely tough. And no running backs? No. On either side for me. Same here. Okay. Let's go to our other trends. We talked about the one earlier on, talking about impact and motivation. You're going to talk about the Bengals offense here. Now the Bengals have motivation. They could get the two seat. As I mentioned, there's a lot of value in that. The tough part is again, the bills could blow out the Patriots, which is a possibility in which case the Bengals might sit guys, especially because if the favored teams win this week, Bengals are facing the Ravens again next week in the playoffs. So that's a complicating factor. You're talking about the Bengals with everyone healthy and what we've seen there. What did you find when digging into that? Yeah. So they host the Ravens at one. We weren't totally certain when that game was going to be, but they initially have motivations or a good team. I want to roster them, you know, and you know, with what happened Monday, you don't really want to go into the playoffs like with two straight bi-weeks kind of in a sense. Not like I'm not trying to diminish that situation, but you know, they probably want to get some reps out there. There's just a lot of nuance with this game and with like the market shares and health of this team with you know, Jamar Chase missed some time, Joe Mixon missed some time, T Higgins had some really like minute snap rates in there because just love fantasy football sometimes. But you know, so what do we do? And obviously you start with quarterback Baltimore about an average defense based on average pass defense based on number of fire symmetrics and Joe Burroughs played four games against teams between 15th and 24th while at home in those games, 279 yards per game, 1.8 touchdowns with 0.24 passing that expected points for drop back, which is pretty sick. I don't worry about his efficiency at all. I don't care about the matchup. And if you look at the skill players in six games with Chase Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst, all active and playing at least 20% of the snaps to get rid of some outliers there. Chase has a team like 27% target share. Higgins is down at 19% Boyd and Hurst about 15, sorry, about 14% each there, mixed in 14% as well. Chase is super fun. I think he's a great play. I'm gonna be there. I think T Higgins makes a lot of sense this week. We want like teams with motivations for running backs and this team should fit, but I don't know what to do with Joe Nixon. Since he returned to snap, it's have been 59% 61, 59. Prior to the week 11 injury, his snap rate averaged, we played on 73% of the team snaps. Now he's down at 60%. That's a pretty big role decrease, especially because he loses passing game work. He can lose some high leverage work because some RGP run, just a very good running back. Within this system at least it's working and they don't need to lean on mixing so much. Baltimore also a good rush defense. So I don't know if Nixon's the answer. These teams played back in week five. As you mentioned, they might play again next week, but that game was a Raven's win 1917. We know that the Bengals that were a really good offense. I don't really see a reason to get away from them unless I'm fearing that this game just completely plays under like 35, 40 points again. I want to play the Bengals. Can I be confident in playing the Bengals this week? So that game, the first Raven's game was the game where they lost chase like mid week. Like they thought he's going to play and then Wednesday their poor comes out that he's not going to play. So I think that that one you can view with a bit of skepticism and I don't worry too much about it. Total in this game is 41 and a half. My, again, this could be way off. Maybe I'm just wrong, but like I've got it at 48. So, and that's with Tyler Huntley in, it's still at 48 because my numbers are goo goo for the Bengals. Like they love them. So the mix and angle to me is very interesting because the only hangup I have is a tough matchup. Like, yeah, his role is down, but let's look at his fan dual point scored in three games post injury return with no touchdown scored in any of them. 11.6 fan dual points, 7.9, 14.3. It's pretty good for no touchdowns. And I think, again, motivation will be high here because they can get the two seeds still. And I expect the Patriots bills getting to stay a little bit tighter, which should help. So I'm really tempted by mixing. The matchup is the one thing that really bothers me because it is so tough. Like the full sample, full season they're six, but they've been better since Roquan Smith came over. So I want to use him. And I think that he's a very good tournament play. I just have to talk myself into it. And I might, but I don't know. It's tough. I can talk myself into everyone else here very easily. Like, I think Burrow is a very good play. I think that Chase is a very good play. His $8,500 salary is, I think kind of low honestly, given the workload he has gotten, even if you look at just the games with Higgins being up. So it's tough. Like I think mixing is the hardest guy for me because I really think that he's a smart play, but I'm having a hard time getting myself there. I think I'm just going to play the angle that Cincinnati comes out and plays hard. Currently, and sorry if I get any of this wrong, it's really, there's so many variables and all this, especially with the Bengals and Dills right now, but they're currently slated to play the Ravens in the playoffs. Correct. They're not going to want to go 0-2 against the Ravens, entering the playoffs, especially with one of those coming in week 18. Maybe I'm simplifying things. Maybe they don't care about that, but that would be a really hard situation to step into against the rival who just beat you twice in the same season, including last week. I feel like they're going to play hard. I love the pass catchers. I love Joe Burrow. I will play more Joe Mixon than I would otherwise because there's a path to his role getting a bit better in an important game. So I'm not going to overthink it. The main issue is what do we do to bring it back? And I don't know if there's an answer. I'm not going to. Yeah. Like, I think they juiced Mark Andrews, sorry, back up 71 under the hopes Lamar would return. And he's, that's probably now not going to happen. So that's tougher there. So I think I think I'll probably just wait on and not do a bring back with them. You mentioned the O and two against the Ravens as they lose on top of that. Like there will be Ravens fans who the Bengals shouldn't care about, but like there would be a narrative of, oh, the Bengals didn't earn the AFC North because they lost twice to the Ravens and only one because they played one less game because if they played that Bill's Bengals game in week 19 and they lost and the Ravens would actually win the division.  And I think that is encouraging. And again, I think the 2C by itself is worth a lot. So I think I want to agree with you where I go into something that they play, all gas, no breaks. And if I do that, that leads me to liking the Bengals offense. Sticking in the AFC North, let's talk about another high powered, high flying offense talk for the Pittsburgh Steelers who can still go to the playoffs. It's awesome. Like, I used to hate this team. I think they're really fun now.  I don't know. They can still make the playoffs. They're facing a beatable Browns defense that ranks 17th in my defensive power rankings. So I wanted to dig in and see what we can glean from looking at this offense since they're by because they've been a lot better in that time. They played eight games. They've exceeded expectations on early downs in three out of eight games through the air on early downs. They did so in one of eight games before their buy, so improvement there. It's a lot above average, but better than they were. They've exceeded expectations on early downs on the ground in seven out of eight games. They were at four of eight before their buy. They have exceeded expectations in six of eight games on late downs versus four of eight before their buy. So they were at or below average in every single game before their buy. They've been above average on the ground and on late downs in six of their eight games since the buy. So they've been a lot better, but they've been especially good on the ground. In Najee Harris's full game since their buy, he's at 94.4 yards from scrimmage per game. He has topped 100 twice, including last week, 99 in another. His salary is 72, which is high, but I still think that's very acceptable given the stakes of this game and given how much better he's been playing. Passing game has been more efficient, but still hasn't shown a lot of upside. Kenny Pickett, 0.08, passing that expected points per dropback in that time. He hasn't topped 20 fan dual points yet. He has done, he's gotten more than 16 just once. So he's tougher to get to. None of the past catchers have had more than 16.3 fan dual points in this time. George Pickett is the guy who had the 16.3, but his overall target share is just 15% in six games with Pickett since the buy. Deontay Johnson's at 24%. His max is 15 fan dual points, no surprise there, but Brandon, his salary down to $6,300. That's a lot better than he usually is. 25% red zone share in the span, 24% of the deep targets. You know, it's not nothing. Pat Friarmouth, he's $5,500. His max fan dual out point in the span is 11.9, but he has the building blocks he wanted tight end, 23% target share, 20% of the deep targets, 21% inside the red zone in that six game sample. So I think Harrison Friarmouth are borderline core plays. Deontay Johnson for the first time in a decade is a consideration for me. That's a lot more than we used to get with the Steelers. So what are your thoughts on them and will you use any of the side characters in this game? I looked at Deontay as well. I thought he's been involved just to see a seven target to catch 35-yard game is always difficult. 35 yards did increase his average for the year, yes. But, you know, 64 yards, 98, 82 in the three weeks before that. Still has not scored a touchdown if I'm not mistaken. Regression alone says eventually he will, but I don't know if his role is such that he will score this week, but if he does and gets you like 85, you know, at 85 and a touchdown is your sort of checklist. You know, you wouldn't say he's due and make a joke, but like, you know, it's almost impossible to have this many yards and targets and not have scored. I can't in good conscience say he cannot get to 85 yards or two touchdowns. Like, I can't say that. With a 25% red zone share in a must win game, I can't cross them off that list, which is wild, but in his salary being down helps a lot too. I'm with you. I think he's viable. I love Najee Harris this week. I'll talk more about him in my player love section, but one thing with Fryermuth, he makes some of the most sense to play at tight end, but Cleveland's been really, really good against tight ends. Okay. Second best in catch rate over expectation allowed. They've allowed just one tight end to get over 61 yards and no more than 70 yards.  They still rate out well if you adjust for, you know, individual opponents faced. So it's a little bit concerning, but I'm still gonna play him because tight ends so bad, but I think I prefer Najee and I might prefer Deontay. Are you gonna play Pickens? No. No, I won't. I think people will because he's fun. He's a real good player, but kind of similar to like Jamal where it's like, I like him. I just don't really wanna use him in DFS. It's always surprising that they're so good against tight ends because they've had like 16 linebacker injuries. Anthony Walker went down like right away. Shout out Bill Katz. But like, they also lost Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoa. Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoa. There we go. Nailed it first time. He's on IR. We'll fix it in post. What's that? We'll fix it in post. Yeah, exactly. We're not live. Simone Taki-Taki's also on IR. So they've had a lot of linebacker injuries. So I'm kind of surprised they're good against tight ends, which is also why I think I'm also receptive to fire me with despite the fact they haven't been good. Even over the past five weeks, they're still good. So it's just something that I noticed. I can only do so much because tight ends awful, but it is what it is. I think if I have one lineup, I would not be shocked if Fryweath is in there though. Same here. Like he's in consideration for that for me. Iante would not be in that lineup, but like if you give me five lineups, I'll probably get there in one if I had to guess. I don't know. It's weird. I'd never on him, but I think he does make sense this week. Okay. We're all in on the Pittsburgh Steelers offense. What could possibly go wrong? In Mike Tomlin, we trust that part's legitimate, but you know, it's a little scary. Let's talk about an offense we've liked a lot more throughout this year. And an offense that is also in a must win spot, Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks have a shot to make the playoffs if they win this week and they're playing before the Packers. So no scorer watching if they win, they got a shot. So you broke down the Seahawks offense. What did you find there? Yeah, they can also tie and have some other stuff happen, but I'm not playing the angle of ties. It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but this team should have a lot of value in playing hard.  They might not have Tyler Lockett a hundred percent, which is definitely a bummer because Tyler Lockett's really good. But in six games without Lockett, playing at least half the snaps, or sorry, in games without Lockett, playing at least half their snaps, the past two games, Metcalf has a 21% target share, which is seven per game. Colby Parkinson is next at 16.7%, including a 25% share. Last week, DG Dallas, 15%, Laquan Treadwell, 13%. Kenneth Walker down at 4%, but he's averaged 27 and a half adjusted opportunities per game and 123 and a half scrimmage yards per game. If you go back to the pass catchers, it's only DK Metcalf with better than a 73% route right in that two game span and he's at 91%. So I don't know if there's, you know, shout out to Rich Rebar, any Ancillary Gebronies that we would want to target here, but we should feel pretty good with both Walker and Metcalf. As for Gino himself, he's averaging just 199 yards per game in this two game sample, 1.5 touchdowns despite bad efficiency. With Lockett, he's at 262 yards and 1.9 touchdowns were slightly plus efficiency. So this comes down to, you know, a few if ends, but like what regardless of Lockett status, I love, or sorry, regardless of Lockett status, I love Walker and I love Metcalf. That's not going to change. Without Lockett, I would maybe consider Colby Parkinson because tight end is so bad. With the salary? Couldn't tell you. 48. So I think it's reasonable. If there's no Lockett, he has been getting some work. He kind of looks good, but I think this one over Phant, Phant is 51. So $300 difference. Yeah, I'd probably go Phant, but I don't think Parkinson is off the map. We will this leaving out like they, we're very okay going to Parkinson last week. So I think it's fair. So all this is to say, I don't think I want to play Gino, although I wouldn't hate it necessarily. And I'm going to play a lot of Kenneth Walker and I want to get to DK Metcalf. So like, is there anything more here for you? Are you worried about this offense without Lockett at all? Yeah, I think losing a good player always downgrades the team, but it sounds like he has a shot to go. And honestly with Seattle, like I know we like joke about Pete Carroll being optimistic about injuries, but like he's been pretty honest this year for the most part. He was right about when Lockett would return from his finger injury. He was right about DK Metcalf playing to that knee injury earlier on this year. He's calling him day to day. The Seahawks, I'm sure there's a stat on this somewhere, but like I'm guessing they've had the most players play this year without practicing at all, the week leading in. Like Walker did it against the Chiefs, Phant did it against the Chiefs, I believe. DK did it at once. I think, you know, they've had it happen a lot. So if he is good to go, I will trust that he is actually legitimately good to go with them. So I agree with you that Gina was actually like kind of in play, if Lockett plays. I could see that being totally fair. So if you had to rank confidence between the Steelers offense and the Seahawks offense, we're going Seahawks, right? Overall? Yeah, because I would rather play Walker than Najee, although I like both, I would much rather play DK Metcalf than any pass catcher. I know it's not a fair comparison with the Salaries, but- It's Salaries on 72 though, that's really acceptable. Yeah, that's the thing is, I don't know how he's not a love for me this week because he sure is. So I think that, you know, between Walker and Metcalf, I'm going to have, I know a couple of weeks ago, you joked about like the amount of Seahawks you have in your lineup being over under one and a half on average. I don't think it's quite like that this week, but I'm probably going to have average one because I think I'm going to have one of those guys in each or in almost every lineup. Yeah. And there might honestly be a chance where I just play both together and assume that they just kind of go nuts. Yeah, I think that they're worth that this way. Both Salaries, very acceptable. I mean, Walker got bumped up, but like not the point where he's like out of play at all. Like he's still very viable. So- Walker or Pollard? Walker by a significant margin, I think. Yeah. Do you agree? Yeah. Okay, cool. The problem, the only issue I have with this week is I like all three teams between the Seahawks, Lions and Packers. Packers are lowest on that list, but like, you know, I like Aaron Jones a lot. I like Christian Watson, they're kind of fun. So I do like all three of those teams. I wish they could all make it. Oh, you mean like enjoy watching? Yeah. Well, because I love Gino and I love Jared Goff. Well, you said you like Aaron Jones and I was like, wait. No, not this week. Sorry, you're right. You're right to clarify that. You're right to clarify that. Thank you. But like, I wish all three could make it, only one will, but at least one. One of them will, so that's good, but kind of a bummer, we can't get all three. We could like knock out like whoever the seven seat is in the AFC and then knock out the Bucks. I'd prefer to do that. Let's just rearrange the puzzle pieces, could sacrifice the NSE south for the greater good. Okay, weather for this week, nothing too bad. There's a chance of rain in Seattle for Seahawks Rams, but wind speeds are okay there. I wouldn't worry too much about that. And there is also a chance of rain in Santa Clara, believe for the 49ers and Cardinals, wind speeds 10 miles per hour there, nothing too concerning as of right now. So we've talked through scenarios. We have talked through everything there is talked through. Let's go position by position for the final time this year. Break down our positional loves for Fandall week 18. Where are you going to quarterback, Brandon? Joe Burrow, 82 I think is low, doesn't really factor in what is stealing is going to be playing proceeding. Can be stacked with some obvious options at receiver. I think that their salaries are a little bit lower than expected personally, but Baltimore, a good defense overall, but more beatable through the air than on the ground. Burrows, take an advantage of like these sort of mid-level matchups. I know that their defense has approved with Broke on Smith, but I'm not going to talk myself out of Joe Burrow. And I think I did fully talk myself into Gino Smith though at 73, I think I'm just going to ride with it. I will stack him with DK Metcalf. I will also stack him with Kenneth Walker, even though Walker has not been getting a lot of receiving work. I would get access to almost every yard that they accrue. I think that's fun in a game against the Rams who are still bad despite showing some signs of life. They're at home. So I think the salary makes a lot of sense.  No, I'd prefer Gino, I think. Yeah. I guess like, yeah, Gino is shown upside this year. He went for 367 and three against the Rams earlier. He can get some, you know, he can go for 20 rushing yards with everything on the line. You could bump that up to maybe 30, 40. I think you're asking the right question. Just like, I'm going to go Gino, I don't know. Yeah, my first one, the quarterback is good. Look, there's at 75 or below. We have Dak Herbert, not Herbert. Gino, Goff and Rodgers, basically. I think, you know, if Lockett plays, Gino is one. Yeah. If Lockett sits, I probably go Rodgers one, even though I feel, I feel bad saying that. Like, I know we're not supposed to box score, scout, but like, please score 20 points at some point. Like he's been Alex Smith this year. Yeah, although Alex Smith is more efficient. But like, yeah, I would go Rodgers if Lockett can't play. It's tough, tough man. So I could just use Jalen Hurts instead. I want to full practice in by Friday. That'd be great, but they need to win for the one seed. Again, the stakes for them are higher than every team that is not in a win and in situation, I think. I think the Eagles have a lot on the line here. So I want to get a full practice in, but if he does, I'd say wheels up. I'd stack him with Devontae Smith, I'd stack with Doss Goddard, A.J. Brown, don't care, would be happy with any of those guys. My second love is still Jill Burrow. I think based on the fact that they need to win so badly with the two seed, I think there's a lot of value in the two seed. I think that they will play hard. Jill Burrow is awesome. He has great upside. Baltimore's defense is fine, but nothing to be avoided. Offense is healthy here. Burrow always has late changing upside. So given I think the value of the two seed is very high, I think they will play hard. And they won't play hard. They'll play fair. They'll play to win. Pretty sure it's like a law commercial in Syracuse, but whatever. Anyway, there might be a better call Saul at, although maybe that would be false advertising anyway. I think that Burrow's a good player quarterback. I would go Gino of the lower salary guys. Running back. What you doing there? I'm going out with our Seahawks this year. Ryden Kenneth Walker this week, 26, 23 carries past two games, which does mask some limited passing game usage, but still okay route numbers. It's been efficient on the ground, 0.58 rushing yards over expectation per carry this year, like the salary. Also like the salary for Naji Harris this week, 72. He had a 64% snap rate last week, but a 55% route rate for a really good workload, 22 carries, three targets. The snap rate itself could go up if they just sort of lean on him. I think there's reasons to think that they'll use Jalen Warren, keep that snap rate sort of limited, but Harris is kind of morphing into someone whose, although his snap rates down, he still gets a lot of work on a per snap basis. And sometimes you have to make those adjustments rested on Wednesday, but it wasn't injury related. So probably gearing up for as much work as you can handle. 67 carries, yep. Speaking of 67, my third love is Miles Sanders. It's a little bit scary just because his snap rate could wind up being in the 40s again, but I think that the salary helps account for a lot of the issues should be a huge upgrade even if Jalen Hertz is like 80% healthy. I know it's not the same offense with Gardner-Minshew. I think Gardner-Minshew is fine. Not that again, Tim, but Jalen Hertz is very good. And if Jalen Hertz can't throw with full efficiency, they should run the ball a ton, including with Hertz. So that should be great for Sanders. We've seen this team lead on Miles Sanders in important games. Was limited in practice Wednesday, so I need a full by Friday, but I think I'll get there even if he's limited just because I think the salary's good. So I have Walker and my loves. I do not have Najee or Miles Sanders. They probably would have been the next guys up for me though. I like both those guys a lot. One guy I wanted to quiz you on quick before I do mine. He doesn't check the box of motivation, but he's been your guy for a while. He's been very good. Tyler Algiers salary is $6,500. Are you considering him this week? I think so, yeah. Is he the guy you're most likely to use among non-playoff teams? Yeah, I agree. I really considered putting him as a love. This is not going to be, there's no stakes in this game, but they've been wanting to see what Algiers can do. They've had no stakes for a bit. Right, but like for Tampa Bay. Although I guess in the embassy South, they kind of haven't, but yeah. For Tampa Bay, he's good. He gets a lot of work. He can get a few targets. I'd also have to expect that Tampa Bay sits in the Tovea, given he was banged up before last week. Like if they sit him, I think that he's interesting. So, you know, Algiers, I don't think that's like 28 point upside, but anything can get like 21. Yep, I agree. I think he's interesting. I think of the non-playoff players. He is the guy I'm most high on. My first love though, is a little bit different is Christian McCaffrey. Small difference between him and Tyler Algiers. But there are two routes to the 49ers caring about this game. The one is that the Vikings win earlier on the day. That forces the 49ers to win and hold the 2C, which means a home field in the second round. And I think that's worth a lot. Like even if you go, like I have home field at one and a half points in my model, that's pretty low. One and a half points is worth a lot to NFL teams. I think they want home field in the second round. So I think they care about the 2C. Other one is that the Eagles don't pull away from the Giants, 49ers could get the 1C. So I think that's enough for them to make McCaffrey a full go. He's easily the top back on the slate. If we assume he is a full go, he's well worth $10,000. So I do like McCaffrey a lot. Again, I would bump him down a bit if Mitchell is activated on Saturday. And I'd bump him up a bit if Debo winds up playing because that would be a good indicator of they care about this game. Second love also Kenneth Walker, you had him in there. He's had great uses recently. He's been getting yardage too. I know it's based on explosives, but like he can do that. So I don't mind too much. Makes him higher variance, that's fine. He is $7,700 that's higher than he was, but that's still fully acceptable to me. My third love is a guy we talked about a bit earlier, but it's Jeff Wilson. The Dolphins need a way in to stay alive. Wilson's salary is $6,200. Last week he had 15 carries and seven targets with a 64% snap rate. That's his highest in a game with the Dolphins this year. You can run the Jets a little bit. So Scalar Thompson a running threat. And if he starts, it may open up more rushing lanes for Wilson as well. So I think Jeff Wilson is 62, my favorite value play at running back for this week. Wide receiver, what are you doing there? DK Metcalf, 72. He has the ability to flamethrower this salary with or without lock at 100%. With lock it, you might not see as many targets, but they should be more efficient. But he's averaging 12.1 weighted targets per game, which is always a stat I look at late in the season and should just look at earlier in the season, but that's a top 10 number. That accounts for downfield work and red zone work, giving that more weight than just general targets. Eight catches on eight targets for 127 yards and a touchdown in their first meeting. Don't really care about that kind of stuff too much, but the salary is just too good. Second love, Alan Lazard. This is not to say that I don't like Christian Watson, but in three post buy games, Lazard and Watson have nearly identical splits and a lot of metrics. Target shares 20.7% each, downfield targets 2.7 each, red zone targets two for Watson 1.7 for Lazard. Lazard though does run a lot more routes. I think he'll be on the field more. I would rather play Watson, but at 64, I don't think that I want to overlook Lazard in a game that is just the best game of the week. Yeah, I think that Lazard works. I prefer Watson to him, but I think he's totally fine. My first love of wide receiver, I do like Jomar Chase a lot, $8,500, what? My third love's for heat. Oh shoot, sorry. No, I kind of ended it there to do. I realized that I forgot I had to fill in tight ends. I was filling in tight end and not looking at where you were. You know, saints are eliminated, but solid implied team total indoors has passed the games by target share 21%, 36%, 26%, 90% route rate are better than all three of them. Carolina is terrible in catch rate over expectation, allowed 31st, they allowed downfield work. Doesn't get as much downfield work as I thought, but he still has the juice. Yeah, he has a lot of juice. I think I like him quite a bit. I've used him before, I'll use him again. My first love is mentioned is Jomar Chase, still trying to get that two seed in the full games. He has played with T. Higgins, with T being full, I should say. Since they changed their scheme entering week five, Chase has 10.6 overall targets per game, 2.4 deep targets, 2.0 red zone targets per game. They can play for the two seed. He is high salary, but I think he's the best high salary receiver on the slate. My second love is Christian Watson. Again, three deep targets last week despite being limited with hip injury despite a super positive game script. The Lions led up a super, super high A-dot. His salary down to $6,900. I adore Christian Watson this week. In the same game, I love DJ Chark again. Should they just be like penciled in, like if the Lions are in the postseason while I still love DJ Chark? Yes, guarantee. 2.2 deep targets per game for Chark since his snaps got fully back up. You'll see some Jair Alexander on the outside in this game, but they're going to focus their attention on Amon Ross a Brown, which means if he is on Alexander, it'll be single coverage. So it doesn't work me that much. He's had duds, which is possible for a guy with a high A-dot, but 90 plus yards and three of six games with his snaps fully back up. He had a, here you go. An end zone target last week, passing interference on it. So, you know, didn't count, but did get an end zone target there. And you drew passing interference. I think a different plate. No, you had to drop. Never mind, just kidding. That's way worse. Way different thing. But he's $5,700. I love Charkian this week. I'm a parody of myself, but whatever, that's okay. Tight end, what you doing there? Dallas Goddard, 62. I think he's good enough that I actually want to try to prioritize in my main lineup. Tight end is a train wreck. So a good game from Goddard is, could be super, super valuable. This might be the worst tight end week of the season for me. Maybe I'm being just reactionary, but it feels that way. 97% of the routes last week from 80% in his first game back. The Giants are fourth worst against tight ends by catch rate over expectation.  So love that. Second love, Pat Frymuth. Again, Cleveland is actually really good against tight ends by catch rate over expectation. They haven't allowed anyone to get above 70 yards, but Frymuth has increased his snap rate from about 55% to 80% over the past two games. He's ran 92% and 90% of the routes in the past two games as well. So I think his role is a lot better than it was.  Yeah, I have Frymuth as my first love too. I think the matchup, like you said, is concerning for sure, but based on personnel, I'm not entirely sold that it's fully sticky. So I do like Frymuth a lot.  I think Frymuth to be my favorite tight end. Second tight end, a little pop quiz time, is a tight end who last week ran a route on 60% of drop backs, which is not a great number, but also not too bad. In that game, he is eight out with 7.7 yards on six targets. For a tight end, that's not bad. Stop laughing. And let me see here. This is like Johnny League average tight end. No. One deep targets and one red zone target in that game. He is playing a team that probably not gonna have a lot of motivation this week. And this guy needs to showcase his skills. Albert Okuwebonam has been an active for a decade and now suddenly is back relevant. His coach is talking about like, yeah, I'm not only sure why this guy wasn't playing earlier on this year, which is A, hilarious. B, probably the indication they're gonna use him a bit this week. So Okuwebonam comes in at $5,000. I think that's viable on Fandall this week. I do like Hunter Henry mentioned him before and will I have Yolani Woods lineups again this week? Yes. Will I regret it? Probably also yes. But again, freak is the way tight end facing the Texans in a game where the Texans are probably not trying to win. I mean, the Colts might not be either, but I think would the 46 in play. So FriarMuth, Henry, Okuwebonam Woods, you got some value tight end. It might not be good value, but it's value. We can't be too picky. Defense, what you got there? I got Miami at 35 playing for the playoffs against the Jets team that is eliminated. Some win, not a ton of win, but in context of the slate, more win than most games. There's like an average defense, but the salaries are nice for the situation. Yeah, I think that they work. They are my favorite defense of this week, but I would say you also have Denver facing the Chargers, likely nothing on the line there. That game was at 425. So if you get skittish about, you know, if the Ravens win in the early window, you could switch to the commanders at $3,300. Facing the Cowboys, Cowboys might wind up pulling guys that the Eagles pull away. $3,300 that I think is enticing. So commanders are in play. Falcons facing Kyle Trask in the early window are in play. Dolphins, I think are my favorite one. Broncos against the potentially drawing dead Chargers. Vikings against Nathan Petterboy, like they're in play. So a lot of low salary defense this week. I would not spend more than 39. 39 is the Steelers against Cleveland. I think that's pretty in play too. I would not spend more than 39 this week because you should say it's our elsewhere to get to McAfrey, get to Hertz, get to Chase, guys like that. Any final thoughts for you, Brandon? Before we close up shop here for week 18. I think we covered a lot of it. We're gonna get some injury news that opens up, some situations that they may or may not be worth it, probably generally not worth it. But if you think they're worth it, then go for it. Yeah, keep an eye on the news. I would also say again, as I mentioned at the top, be skeptical of scrubs filling in because they don't typically pay off for the most part, especially running back. So be skeptical of scrubs, put value in playoff scenarios, read the news on Sunday morning, and I think you should be in good position to put up a good score for week 18. That's all we have here for the regular season, but as mentioned, we are back for the playoffs. We'll still be on Thursdays, probably at 10 a.m. Question mark, is that okay with you? I should ask you before we're live on air, but 10 a.m. next week on Thursday? Sounds good to me. That's a date. So we'll have that next week on Thursday, talking NFL for the playoffs, but also Tom Becchio, Daily ISO, Brandon and myself talking PGA, all right here in the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Make sure you are subscribed wherever you get your podcasts and if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. Brandon, if people want to find you on your favorite social media site of all time, where can they do so on Twitter? I'm on Twitter, act-a-dool-13, G-D-U-L-A-1-3. And I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. I want to thank you all for tuning in not just today, but also throughout this entire season. Good luck to you in week 18. We'll see you next week for the post season. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.