Okay, very good morning. It is Thursday the 2nd of September. So I hope you're doing well I'm gonna cover some quite interesting things actually in terms of what's in focus in markets for the moment Nothing too much for the actual open here this morning Just before I begin the overall flavor for market sentiment at the European Open is pretty flat equity index futures Broadly unchanged as far as the US concern not real any movement seen overnight the DAX future perhaps a little bit more interesting just in Challenge of some near-term support as you can see here on the downside Which was the overnight APAC low yesterday afternoon low and the low from the 31st of this week as well So worth just keeping an eye on that at the moment FX markets the dollar index pretty on pretty much unchanged and that's reflecting the major pairs and Euro dollar and cable gold flat oil Down just a touch 24 cents after some of the volatility seen yesterday amid the OPEC meeting and infantry data And then US T notes bottom right also toward unchanged But the reason why I think there's a couple of interesting things to talk about is Starting off with data Yesterday obviously we got the things like ADP national employment. We had the ISM manufacturing PMI both very important data points not only for The overall assessment of the US economy But of course as we start to build out our expectations for the labor report the US non-farm pay rise on Friday, of course and ADP was a big miss as you can see here 374,000 analysts were actually looking for this number to bounce back north of 600k and that the July reading was somewhat of an anomaly and we had moved back up towards Pretty decent and robust jobs gains over the last period In the month of August, but that didn't materialize and that then came in combination with the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI and that came in at 59.9 which on the actual surface seemed pretty decent The expectation value there was at 58.6. So again Initial interpretation would be that's positive But if you actually looked under the bonnet Importantly for payrolls at least employment contracted remember this is a Diffusion index and so sub 50 means contraction and the number came in at 49 a fairly steep decrease from 52.9 In fact, that's the lowest in the manufacturing PMI employment component that we've had since November so a long time ago and so what did this mean for markets? Well at the time remember the market trades this in a kind of monetary policy domino effect of what does this mean for tapering? Essentially and actually at the time this data came out as you can see here probably most evident in the lights of the Nasdaq Which is particularly sensitive to the rate environment i.e. big mega cap tech generally liking any signs of delaying on tapering and Those that are more integrally tied to things like the economy like the Dow does the opposite And what was quite interesting yesterday when all these data points were coming out is the Nasdaq actually? rallied at the time particularly post ADP at the open on Wall Street And we actually touched all-time highs albeit at that then gave back those gains and we finished pretty much flat marginally positive in Nasdaq but outperforming the Dow The Dow on the other hand if I just switch over here In fact, we actually just saw selling pressure after ADP So the actual same time frame movements here You've got the response to ADP in the Dow here the response really to ADP coming out in the Nasdaq here So very contrasting here between the different equity Sectors i.e. the Nasdaq being proportionately technology-led the Dow carrying names that are more integral to that of overall economic performance, but Beyond that point though the interesting thing for the Fed of course becomes this idea and notion about Timing of a tapering yesterday the dollar weakened post these data points as Markets started to push back any idea of an accelerated taper program as had been put forward by the likes of some of the Fed Hawks like Bullard, Kaplan, Mester and others and so that has Led to a bit of a footing for these equity markets albeit We did as I said just drift into the latter hours of Wall Street off those those best levels another interesting thing I thought to talk about and something which probably is not on your radar if you're not an Economist or a more experienced market participant is Evictions and the risk that that carries in the US and what I wanted to do is just give you a quick flavor and Really this discussion point triggered by Fed's Bostick Now Bostick is a voter on the FMC at the moment and also is of a slightly more hawkish Disposition in terms of that spectrum between Hawks and Doves so keeping that in mind of his general policy stance He said he's worried about a wave of evictions from the moratorium Ending whereby a surge would have a negative impact on the recovery So obviously this is a little bit out of kilter from someone who typically would lean more on the hawkish side And this definitely highlighting more Downside risks to the economy which would then result in having a more dovish spin to what he's saying now What exactly is this and what is he referring to? Well an interesting note came out of Goldman Sachs A few days ago and it adds a bit of color and let me give you the highlights Essentially landlords, this is in America may evict roughly 750,000 US households by the end of the year As lapsing eviction bans and high demand for rental housing push property owners to remove tenants Context currently there's as many as 3.5 million households who are believed to be behind rent at the moment With landlords owed as much as 17 billion US dollars Remember a lot of those jobs things like leisure and hospitality Typically some of the lowest paid jobs in America are the ones that have been hit most hard during the pandemic Lockdown restrictions and therefore haven't been able to pay their rent. They've fallen behind and Why this has come about is that delinquent renters have been able to remain in their homes during COVID-19 But the Supreme Court lifted a federal ban on evictions last week and Remaining state and local moratoriums are slated to expire later this year So it's almost like these people have been given a bit of a break because of the COVID situation But that won't last forever and it just so happens that there's three and a half Million households who are behind on rent and so this is again a key risk to think about Particularly if as we have seen the labor market recovery is being relatively Slow and so this idea of tapering again Don't forget you've got fairly high COVID case rates at the moment Which is putting quite a lot of pressure on infrastructure in some of the more popular states in America recently In the likes of florida, for example Although that's moderated a little bit more recently COVID is still a real issue in certain hot spots in north america As well So there's a number of things here which overall I would say in my view right now would constitute the Fed Taking a measured approach to tapering everything I've discussed Our reasons for them to just coordinate policy Normalization and commencement of that sequence of tightening in a very slow very measured way And that's why for me, I don't buy into this accelerated format that's been Put on the table by some of the hawks So yeah, just a couple of things there to be to be aware of and again rationale for why even though we're Tip turning into tapering Markets are not freaking out and equities still reside at around their best levels The dollar's been a little bit weaker more recently Again, a lot of the pressure point is going to come on to what's the quality of the labor report that we get From the bureau of labor statistics on friday non farms at the moment Given the moderation We've had in the employment constituent moving into contraction and manufacturing ADP big miss worse in fact than the most pessimistic estimate on the street I'd say expectations for payrolls are diminishing at this point in time And if that is the case, well that that further cements that view that I've just discussed So hopefully this will make sense Some other things to be aware of oil markets We had a bit of a dip and recovery yesterday and really goes to show the volatility You typically see with a generally thinner market because no one really wants to step in intraday with a position of risk Given the headline noise that can emerge out of an opec meeting But it wasn't really anything too surprising to be honest opec plus this time They said they would continue the policy of easing their production cuts No additional requests were made from any of the opec plus states to change their quotas Which had been a bit of a headache you remember before it was the UAE Before that it was Iraq and so on So no real complications at this point in time The next meeting is planned for about a month from now the 4th of october So following that familiar routine of every month having a meeting separately But related Iranian all minister has said that as soon as us unilateral legal sanctions are lifted Iran is ready to increase its oil output to its highest possible level to compensate for losses caused by US sanctions I thought that was quite interesting because I don't find it unsurprising what iran is saying They pretty much have stuck to that rhetoric from the beginning We've discussed before in previous briefings about it's not like iran just turns The handle and then outcomes the the new crude oil supply Because overall they've had a lack of real investment in the infrastructure Turning the taps on like that will take a bit of time amongst other issues as well But don't forget they can then bring back say stored oil in china For example if they really wanted to flood the market So there is some credibility to the threats and the noises that they make What I thought was quite interesting was the fact that if you remember It's hard to remember it But we were in several rounds of nuclear talks the us led with iran. What's happened to that? Well, as you can imagine nothing I remember a few months ago oil was weakening people were saying about this impending flood to the market Iran were making similar types of noises to this And we on the desk were saying at the time we don't buy into that because The relationship that was broken down via the trump administration to reestablish that I think was Way underplayed by the market at the time hugely complicated in that region And with that particular relationship in question And we're seeing this play out at the moment so For now I still see any type of nuclear accord return to that 2015 agreement as Well off the table for the time being and the predominant reason why I think that is because At the moment there's biden dealing with a very messy exit from afghanistan And that has really dented his opinion ratings domestically So further Involvement into more foreign affair related issues of which iran would fit into that that area I think is the last thing biden wants to do is waste time there He still has an infrastructure bill to really see completely through congress. He still has a looming Large budget that needs to be negotiated and approved and there's a looming debt ceiling issue as well on the agenda all coming at a point where his His ratings are declining So the last thing he's going to want to do is start talking to iran at this point in time So iran's banging the drum as I would do if I was iran now's the time You know, your opponent is in a fairly weaker position holding a softer hand I want to assert myself and so rhetoric like this. I think it's to be expected overall Though connecting all these dots, I guess with oil OPEC supply, I think will continue to come to market. I think iran will talk. It won't make any difference quite frankly At least for now Covid does present a little bit of a risk particularly in the areas like china, for example As well as the u.s at the moment and other places But overall, I think that areas like western europe and just generally That any weakness in that outlook generally would be mitigated by the ongoing improvements globally by Demand and I think that any dips into low 60s will be bought into as they were just a few weeks ago. So I still think WTI crude there's enough to it In the kind of demanded supply dynamic to keep us at around the current levels that we're trading we're trading 68 handles this morning The other thing is china overnight the latest kind of regulatory crackdown spooking markets is this tech shares getting hit overnight in hong kong They came off their highs after criticism of ride hailing firms Regulators alleged that services are recruiting unapproved drivers and vehicles And highlighting the risks then from the nation's ongoing crackdown on private industries However, the chinese market actually traded higher despite the weakness in tech And this is because they had their chance to react to that news that we saw yesterday's session which was that The pboc is to supply cheap funding to banks in a dollar related value just shy of 50 billion us dollars To boost small medium enterprise lending Other measures announced included interest subsidies to firms hit by the pandemic and a bigger role for local special bonds in driving Investment so this is a bit of a softer touch approach The just outright triple r movement or more definitive action on a policy side But nonetheless its policy support into an economy that has been softening of late And this is part of that reason why markets have kind of kept a degree of calm at the moment without freaking out about Any any weakening in the chinese economy of late and particularly there domestically as they Continue to confront the ongoing covet situation Because of the fact that people are very much of the opinion that if things get worse the state steps in And as long as that is the relationship There's not a great deal to fear on the downside Particularly then given the rhetoric they've been saying of late given the route that we saw in the tech sector in particular more recently All right to finish off in terms of the calendar for today You've got eurozone ppi numbers coming out of 10 not really looking for too much movement Not looking for too much movement on the back of that You've then got initial jobless claims Happening at 130 expected at 345 000 pretty similar to the previous print of 353 and You've then got the durable goods, but these are revisions and not too much interest there And then us factory orders will be watched at three o'clock expected at 0.3 percent for july month to month Down from 1.5 percent seen previously bostick speaks again at 6 p.m Fixed income supply coming out of spain and france this morning with a 3 10 30 year note refunding announcement out of the us at 4 p.m And that is it. So hopefully That was useful Again, this morning's open over on the charts pretty flat Most of the things i've discussed are more top-level macro ideas and thinking rather than implementable Strategies for this morning so to speak but hopefully all of that made sense If you need to see my notes you can check them out on my twitter And if you're watching this on youtube, don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel. All right guys Have a good day and i'll catch you tomorrow


Welcome to module 42 of chemical kinetics and transition state theory. In the last module, we discussed transition state theory in micro canonical ensemble. And what we find in that theory is we need to calculate density and sum of states. Now, in this module, we will discuss a little bit more details on how this density of states and total number of states is calculated. So, a quick recap, the transition state theory estimate comes out to be this formula where W is the total number of states. So, W dagger is a total number of states calculated at transition state excluding the reaction coordinate, E a is the activation energy and G is the density of states at energy E computed in the reactant region only. So, with this formula we derived in the last module. So, today we are going to discuss how to calculate this G and W. G is the density of states at energy E and W is the total number of states with energy less than equal to E. Within classical mechanics, we also argued like in 2 modules ago that this W can be calculated as the volume occupied by the surface of H equal to E where H is the Hamiltonian divided by H to the power of 3m, this little H. So, this is really the way we typically will calculate W, at least if classical mechanics holds true. And to calculate G, we just differentiate W with respect to E. So, this is going to be the main strategy. So, let us see how this works. First thing before we calculate these G and W, we will play our regular tricks and separate rotations from vibrations. Because as it turns out, we can analyze both of them individually very well, but combined it becomes somewhat harder. So, the common trick that we again do is, let us say I am trying to calculate the total number of states. So, if I want to calculate G of E, total energy and let us say the total energy is the sum of vibrational energies plus rotational energies. Translation can always be separated out exactly. So, I am not considering that right now, translation is there, but that is exactly separable anywhere. So, the G of E is nothing but the total number of states at that energy E or the density of states at that energy E. So, what I can do is, I can sum over vibrational states nu, find the number of states at that energy E nu. So, I am thinking I have a total energy E and then I can partition this into E nu and E r. So, let us say the total energy E is this and this is let us say E nu and this is let us say E r. So, I am saying if my vibrational energy is E nu, well the total number of states then will be the density of states at E nu multiplied by the density of states at E r and then as sum over all possible combinations of E nu that I can have. Instead of this E nu, I might have a different combination where E nu is equal to this and E r is equal to this. So, I sum over all possible possibilities of E nu. Of course, E nu is less than E. So, this I just modify a little bit and this state this is equal to sum over nu g nu E nu and g r E minus E nu. So, this is of course, an approximation. What is the approximation really here? The approximation is that the rotational states and vibrational states are independent of each other. However, vibrations you have excited one quanta of vibrational excitation or two quanta of vibrational excitation, the rotations are unaffected by it. That is why I have been able to write it as a product form. Otherwise, more accurately I should include vibrational state as well into the definition of g here. So, this is ignored and that is the approximation really and that is a regular approximation we have made on many, many times that rotation and vibration can be decoupled. It is usually a good approximation except for a few cases when it does not. So, our goal becomes in calculating these rotational density and vibrational density separately which is always good. So, I will show you today. Let us start out by looking at these rotational density first. So, let us look at it in 1D. 3D is the same concept it is just the math becomes slightly harder. So, we will do 1D here. So, what we have to do? We have to find, we will do W e, calculate W e first and W e is nothing but 1 over h into the volume of q pi by the surface h equal to e. I am saying 1 over h only because it is 1D only. So, it is h to the power of 1.  So, this is how Hamiltonian for this system is given and phi goes from 0 to 2 pi. So, we want to find this is equal to e. I want the contour corresponding to h equal to e and find the volume occupied by this contour. So, let us make a plot of phi versus p phi. Phi goes from 0 to 2 pi. How much this p phi goes from well minus infinity to plus infinity, but we have a constraint. A constraint is h equal to e. So, h equal to e implies p phi equal to root 2i e plus or minus. That is why if I equate these two, this is easy to see. So, I have root of 2i e here, I am assuming energy to be positive e here minus and phi goes from 0 to 2 pi. So, effectively you get a box like this. So, w is nothing but the area occupied by this rectangle divided by h. So, w equal to area of rectangle the shaded region divided by h. Well, area is easy to calculate. This length is 2 pi and this side is what 2 into root 2i e. So, area of rectangle is 2 pi into 2 root 2i e divided by h. So, this is nothing but 2 over h bar root 2i e. So, this is w of e. I can also calculate g of e now as dw over de. So, this is going to be a strategy for classical mechanics at least. And remember that for rotations classical mechanics is usually very good. So, this is a pretty good approximation on what we are doing. So, this will be equal to 2 over h bar root 2i into half of 1 over root e. So, this is nothing but 1 over h bar 2i over. So, I am not doing the quantum version here right now, but classical mechanics is usually holds very good anywhere. So, now let us look at vibrations. Vibrations classical mechanics is not good. One must do a quantum treatment. So, in this module I will try to also convince you that that is in fact correct. But let us start with the quantum version. And then we will do it do the classical version as well and see how different they are. So, let us say I have I have to first get my pen. Let there be n oscillators with frequencies omega 1, omega 2 till omega n. So, what is the energy of this? Let us say the corresponding quantum number. So, the energy for this set of quantum numbers will be equal to sum over i h bar omega i ni plus half i equal to 1 to capital N. So, energy of one oscillator is h bar omega into n plus half. So, I am simply summing over all possible different modes, different oscillators. So, the idea is very simple. W of let us say E naught is nothing but total combinations of n 1, n n such that E of this n 1 to n n is less than E naught. So, you really literally count it for all possible n 1s to n ns such that the energy, the harmonic oscillator energy is comes out to be less than the desired energy. So, we will see one example. So, that things become clear. So, the question statement is that we have that is the only three oscillators with frequencies 800, 1000 and 1400 wave numbers. Calculate the total number of states with energy less than or equal to 2500 wave numbers above the zero point energy. So, let us exclude the zero point energy. So, 2500 wave numbers above the zero point energy. So, my energy is going to be h bar omega 1 plus h bar omega 2, I am sorry I have forgotten my n 1s. So, I have three quantum numbers here n 1, n 2, n 3. This will be h bar omega 1, n 1 plus h bar omega 2, n 2 plus h bar omega 3, n 3. I have not written plus half because that is a zero point energy. So, this is the energy above the zero point energy. So, let me just put in the numbers here 800 n 1 plus 1000 n 2 plus 1400 n 3. So, we have to literally calculate all possible combinations of n 1, n 2 and n 3 such that the energy remains less than or equal to 2500 wave numbers. So, we are going to manually calculate it. There is no formula now n 1, n 2, n 3 energy and we will count only those combinations for which e is less than 2500. So, the lowest one is of course, zero. I can put one quanta here. If I put n 1 equal to 1, n 2 equal to zero and n 3 equal to zero, I will get 800 wave numbers. I can put a 0 1 0 that is 1000 wave numbers, still less than 2500, 001, 1400 wave numbers, still less than 2500 wave numbers. Then let us start putting two quanta. Let me put two quanta here. Then I will get 1600 wave numbers. What can I do next? I can put 1 and 1 and 0. That will give me 1800 wave numbers. What do I do next? Let me put 101 as sure that is 2200 wave numbers. I have actually forgotten one. So, let me make another table here. So, it is laborious. You have to just go ahead and do it. I can also put this way. I would have gotten 2000 wave numbers. Finally, I can do 3000. That is 2400 wave numbers or I can do 011. That is also 2400 wave numbers. These two are degenerate, but they represent different states nonetheless. So, we count them equally. So, the total number is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. W of E or W of 2500 is equal to 10. So, this is how you calculate W quantum mechanically. Often when you have large number of oscillators or large amount of energy, what you can do is to use a program to do this for you. You do not have to do it manually. So, you can easily construct a program or you can find a program written by somebody else, which will do this exact job for you. But this is what will always happen, this mathematics. Now, let me also emphasize upon you what would have happened. If I calculated this W classically, maybe I am being a fool, maybe I am doing all this laborious work for no reason. Classically, I can get an analytical expression and just use that. So, let us see what would have happened. So, classically my H now is what? It is well p 1 square over 2 m plus half.  So, again I will play the same trick. I will say H is equal to E and this is some n dimensional space, a huge space. But it does not matter, I have this huge space in which I have a contour of H equal to E and I simply have to find the volume occupied by this contour. That is still my general recipe. However, large n is even if I cannot draw the figure, even if I cannot imagine the figure. For this, let me just rewrite this in a different form. The form is p 1 square over 2 m 1 E root 2 m 1 E square plus x 1 square divided by I am of course, looking at this formula and trying to get it in that particular format square root square plus dot, dot, dot plus p n square divided by root 2 m n E square plus x n square divided by 2 E by m n omega n square, square root.  This was a brutal beheading of 2 E is equal to 1. I have forgotten to write this is equal to 1. So, for this ellipsoid, the volume is given to be this. It is a mathematical formula that we can assume. So, all we have to do is to use this formula. So, volume g is volume divided by x to the power of n. So, volume will be pi to the power of n into this a 1 into a 2 into a 3 where a 1 a 2 are here. So, this is my a 1, this is my a 2 dot, dot, dot, this is my a. This is a 2 n. I have 2 n variables.  So, I have 2 n. So, that is why I have a 2 n here. So, pi to the power of n into root 2 m 1 e into root 2 e over m 1 omega 1 square dot, dot, dot root 2 m n e root 2 e divided by m n omega n square divided by n factorial. Masses happily cancel. So, I get pi to the power of n. I forgot my h. Planck will be angry with me. And here I get 2 e to the power of n. Yeah, I have 2 e to this, this thing is 2 e square root of 2 e into square root of 2 e n times. So, 2 e to the power of n divided by product of i of omega i. So, I have omega 1 square here, omega 1 square square root is omega 1 and it is a simply a product or divided by h to the power of n n factorial. So, I will just write it in a form that is more amenable to us. This I will write as e to the power of n divided by n factorial into product of see carefully what I am doing h bar into omega i. So, I notice I have here this is pi into 2 by h to the power of n. You see this constant h 2 pi I have taken them out written it in this form. This is nothing but 1 by h bar to the power of n and I put 1 h bar for each omega i omega i is still lonely. I have to provide them with h bars. So, I get this expression. So, this is what g of e finally is. While I am at it, I forgot I have put s here instead of n. I have been using n so far. So, let me just in my practice I was using s. While I am at it, let me also just provide you what g of e will be. g of e is nothing but dw over de. This we will need in the next module. So, I am just doing it right now. So, this is equal to just an extra fact for you that we will use in the next module. So, let us calculate the same problem. We have 3 modes with frequencies 800, 1000 and 1400 and I ask you now calculate the classical number of states with energy less 2500 wave numbers. So, you remember we got 10 for quantum. Let us use this formula now and see what we get now. So, w will be 2500 cube here s or n is 3 divided by 3 factorial into product of the frequencies 800 into 1000 into 1400. So, note that this is dimensionless. I have 2500 wave number cube and these are all wave numbers. So, this cancels out that is nice. And then I can simply plug it on our calculator. I did it earlier and I got 2.32. So, you see w quantum was 10 almost 5 times or 4 times more than the classical version. So, the classical w is not a good idea. We should do a quantum w. We will discuss a little bit more of this in the coming modules. This is a famous mistake actually made by RRK. So, by R and R by Rice and Ramsberger Kessel actually corrected it. So, in summary what we have looked today is how to calculate this density and sum of states. We start out by separating out the rotational and vibrational density of states. For 1D rotational we showed that the classical mechanics is typically good and you can calculate w as 2 over h by root 2 i e. Quantum vibrational quantum version is that you simply count the number of states. It is laborious, but that is the right way of doing it. The classical version nonetheless is e to the power of s divided by s factorial into product of frequencies. Thank you very much.


Johnny Duller Harry McQueen Med Eastern Indomnity Corporation now. I'm glad you call Harry What I just been waiting for a chance to run down to New York has some fun taking a few shows and some nightlife Yeah, yeah expense account of course now look we'll pay the expense account But not for a lot of theaters and nightclubs spoils for it Johnny. Can you come down here right away? Sure? What's the trouble Harry then diamond? Dan diamond. That's right Well, nice talking to you. Oh, what's that me it means? I suddenly think I have an important assignment in Podunka Timbuk to you mean you're afraid to get involved with a friend mr. Diamond It's just that I relish the thought of maybe living to a happy middle-aged is all Don't you remember what happened on that bank job over in Amityville? Oh, I remember not only a bank guy, but a police officer and the investigator from the insurance company All of them suddenly turned their loving wives into widows. I know Diamond so he's still in business, huh? Apparently not and I use that word Apparently he's retired from his career of crime and is growing orchids at his little home in Long Beach, California Yeah, on the dough from that Amityville job. That is when he's out there. Oh, where's he now? Right here in New York City, and he just happens to have lifted some $75,000 from a small but expensive jewelry store then lock him up and throw the key away What's more we want that 75,000 back Sorry, Harry is what your commission would be on a 75,000 recovery And after all Johnny with an unlimited expense account to go on Okay, Harry, maybe I'll run on down there and see you The O brings you Bob Bailey in the exciting adventures of the man with the action-packed expense account America's fabulous freelance insurance investigator goes truly Johnny dollar Expense accounts submitted by special investigator Johnny dollar to the mid-eastern and demnity cooperation New York City The following isn't a kind of expenses incurred during my investigation of the PO matter So who wants to tangle with a character like Danny Diamond? But that bait Harry McQueen dangle in front of me was too much to refuse Expense account and a one seven seventy for a train to New York and a cab to his office on Park Avenue Friday afternoon Johnny week before last they were about to send a pile of money over to the bank and Diamond simply walked in put a gun on the man at the vault They didn't crawl under a table and then scooped up to 75,000 and slipped out into the street before the vault man could hit the alarm button Easy as that. That's a lot of money to walk around with he was careful to take it mostly in fifty and hundred dollar bills The vault man didn't try to put up a fight against Danny Diamond and get killed for sure Well, how do you know who he was Danny told him He what just like he identified himself on that Amityville job you mentioned like he did on every job he ever pulls We were lucky that no one got killed on this one. You said he's here in New York. Where I Understand the PD is gonna release him sometime today Release him. That's right Thanks to a smart lawyer and alibi. They can't seem to break and well, let's face it lack of evidence You mean the money that's exactly what I mean, and of course it's that money that we're primarily interested in Well, Johnny Who's handling this for the police department? Man over at the 18th precinct Lieutenant singer Randy singer. Yeah, that's the one but he's in homicide I don't know about that, but I know he's the top man on this case. Why there's been no killing Johnny Why don't you ask him? Yeah, why don't I? Very previous job the dapper Danny pulled there was a killing I was assigned to him I got to know him and his routine his methods better than anybody else in town, but not well enough to nail him down Yeah, yeah, I'm afraid that's true Anyway, they made a special out of this one and put me on it And from the way you say that Randy you haven't got very far Johnny. I haven't got the first base Sure, we locked him up one suspicion got the d8 or really cloud up and rain all over him But thanks to that smart mouth piece he hired and an alibi so solid you couldn't smash it with a hydrogen bomb Plus no sign of the money. Yeah, that's right Anyway, they're letting him loose and he'll go back to California free as a bird and 75 G's of the good You sure it was Danny diamond pull this one, huh? Oh everything Johnny his perfect timing his modus operandi that Egotistical trick of identifying himself the description of him is doing it solo the fact he didn't stash it away in a bank I've checked every bank in town. Well Everything Johnny says it's him. You mean it's he mm-hmm. What's your English Randy? No English English to heck with it. Him's the I mean, he's the one that did it But unless we can lay our hands on that 75 found you checked out where he's been staying what are you kidding? I went over with a fine-tooth comb nothing in his hotel room his luggage no little package left in the hotel saved nothing Gave us a list of where he's been what he's done since he got in town and it all checked out to the minute It's somehow he managed to stash away that water money You find it Johnny and we'll nail him now What's to have stopped him from passing it to some power for safekeeping? No, no, no, no Johnny you sure that diamond works alone He'd no more let anybody else have a gander at that money Why Danny wouldn't trust it with anybody short of the United States government and I'm sure he isn't turning any of it Over to uncle Sam ask me ready. You got a pretty thin case against him Yeah, but I bet my own life that he did this job And if you or I or anybody can find that dough on them or anywhere near you'll nail it you said it You want to take a crack at him? mighty thin case though Johnny Okay, if you're so sure that he's the one Randy. Well, that's good enough for me. What are you gonna do answer your phone? Hmm. Oh singer Yeah Yeah Well, where'd he Okay, then all I can do is alert somebody out where he lives to Yeah They let him go Johnny is on his way to where who knows okay, then I'm on my way. Yeah, where what are you gonna do the coin? A real corny one California here. I come Feels like acting with a miserable cold. I relieve cold distress the fast way with four-way cold tablets Yes tests of all the leading cold tablets proved four-way fastest acting Amazing four-way starts in minutes to relieve muscular pains and headache reduce fever calm upset stomach also overcomes irregularities when a cold strikes Do what I do take four-way cold tablets It's the fast way to relieve nasty cold distress and feel better quickly four-way only 29 cents now Here's a word about another fine product of Grove Laboratories to get rid of embarrassing dandruff in three minutes changed to pitch dandruff Dandruff remover shampoo three minutes with Fitch regularly is guaranteed to keep unsightly dandruff away forever Apply Fitch before wetting hair rub in one minute add water lather one minute then rinse one minute every trace of dandruff goes down the drain Three minutes with Fitch and embarrassing dandruff gone at the same time Fitch can brighten hair up to 35% Get Fitch dandruff remover shampoo today And now act two of yours truly Johnny dollar and the PO matter I Got a recent picture in a complete description of Danny Diamond from Lieutenant Randy Singer and I'll find out who you ought to contact They're at the PD in Long Beach Johnny and Send you a telegram then I spent item two $166 and a quarter for a plane ticket to Los Angeles When I got a board I began to think that maybe I'd fallen into some luck for a change and Not for the usual reason though, of course, I'd hope to find myself next to a gorgeous blonde with ideas and plenty of time No It was because the passengers sitting right next to me holding a big dispatch case in his lap And I mean holding on to it was none other than diamonds name Danny Diamond What's yours, mr. It's a Reynolds Jerry Reynolds Minute I thought there was something familiar I guess I was wrong, but Haven't I heard about you somewhere? Oh, I don't know why not Danny Diamond dapper Danny. They call me You probably read about me in the papers lousy bunch of New York cops hang that jewelry store heist on me Yeah, something like 75,000 wasn't it? Yeah It's gonna keep somebody real happy for a long long time, mr What'd you say your name is a Reynolds Jerry Reynolds? Yeah It's right a pin that on Danny Diamond. I'd like to see him pin anything on me and not because they haven't been trying Trying for years Johnny. It's sherry Yeah Yeah, that's what I meant But they're wasting that time Just like they're wasting their time trying to find that 75 cheese. Hey look don't get me wrong mr. Diamond Call me Danny, but the way you're hanging on to that dispatch case. You'd think it was loaded with yeah Yeah, what about it? Nothing just forget I mentioned it Yeah, and don't you get me wrong Maybe you'll stay a lot happier. Let's say if you forget that you mentioned it too when I look Danny. I just forget it Sure. Why not? You uh, you live in Los Angeles. Oh Long Beach Why why just? Yeah What are you gonna lay for oh Just to spend some time with an old pal of mine. Yeah. Oh Oh Was he look section of LA called Westwood Village. It's out beyond Beverly Hills. Yeah, I know I know what's his name All that look doesn't make any difference. Maybe I know maybe we got mutual friends. What's his name Johnstone? Johnstone, that's right. Jack Johnstone What do you do always a writer among other things? Radio television radio I hardly thought you would something kind of familiar about that name See, I listen to radio.  See if I could try not to drink out of that blonde stewardess Well, I doubt if you'll have any luck, but go ahead and leave it to me. You want me to bring you one Why not if you can't leave it on me? He carefully set the dispatch case in the seat But as he swung back up the aisle he kept half looking over his shoulder If I picked it up and tried to open it. He'd know exactly what I was doing Even as he stood there talking to the stewardess trying to force some money on her he kept his eyes on me But I had to find out what was in that case And what I could do was keep looking out the window and with one hand open the class son That much he couldn't see and when he came back to his seat with his hands full all I'd have to do How dumb can they be? Chicks to make a lot of extra dough make a lot of friends, too They forget the rules and then with that liquor they got back. Well, sit down.  You get anything you want. Yeah Hey here. I'll move this case out of the way so you know What The little case was loaded the papers that fell out that he quickly shoved back into it were not money Now they were clippings from the New York newspapers. Yeah news items about the robbery. That was all Wait, though.  Sorry. Sorry. Sure. Of course. I listen I thought maybe you've done that on purpose. Yeah Well, I get it Sure about that little drink you promised sure Why not? Try camels the camel blend of costly Turkish and domestic tobaccos has never been equal for rich flavor Easygoing mildness real smoking satisfaction every time you light up the best tobacco makes the best smoke Johnny dollar and the PO matter There wasn't much conversation with Danny Diamond during the rest of the flight At LA International Airport after watching him pick up his luggage I spent on him three fifty bucks to pass it on a rental car and drove on down to Long Beach Hoping not to see him along the way. I didn't I got myself a room at the Villa Riviera and checked with Western Union Whatever that means New York police department. Would you read it to me, please? Yes, sir. I'll be glad to get it That was a typo should have been PD. Oh sure, but go on That's all Okay, thanks Just ten cents for that phone call then I wasted no time in getting over to police headquarters into a huddle with sergeant Raleigh One dollar we knew all about Danny Diamond What he is where he got his money for that house of his on phone drive and for living But unless he tries to pull something around here, there's And there's nothing we can do I know what you mean, sir But if you can get something on him and make it stick This whole town will love you dearly Something like that 75,000 robbery in new york All lieutenant singer told me on the phone. That's what you're on here for that sir That's a pretty nice things about you too There's anything we can do if there is I want to look at not only Danny's home But the luggage he just brought him in the plane I'm not already get out of search. No, no search warrant I look can you get him over here for a couple of hours before he has a chance to one pack and settle down I made real time driving here. He ought to be arriving just about now Let me think hey call him up. Tell him you want to see him here at headquarters. Can you get him down here? Sure, sure.  Tell him anything Now look dollar if you're planning what I think and without a search warrant sergeant So far as you know all i'm going to do after I leave you here is take a nice long walk along the beach Well, okay Okay, dollar I drove quickly out to Danny diamonds address on fern drive A rather nice modern little home by the way in a very pleasant residential section Long beach has a lot of nice homes and this was one of I'd parked a couple of blocks away and as I sauntered as casually as possible toward his place A taxi pulled up in front of it out came Danny and his luggage He paid off the driver went in and I waited Praying that sergeant wyman would call him before he had a chance to Wyman must have done all right Within three or four minutes Danny came out the back door went into the garage then pulled away in a fancy little sports car I went over to the back door and found much to my surprise that it was a really easy job to jimmy it open Danny's handbags were still sitting by the front door I not only went through them but through every inch of that house slowly carefully overlooking nothing And that's exactly what I found Nothing Except that is for a large floor safe under one of the rucks But I knew he hadn't had time to get to it and besides the dust around it showed it hadn't been open recently No, randy singer was wrong If Danny did take that money, he must have stashed it away somewhere or left it with somebody probably back in new york Despite what randy had said about his operating alone trusting no one not even the banks about trusting no one short of the united states government the government Wait a minute. Wait a minute I beat it back to police headquarters and sergeant rolly wyman I kept him here just as long as I could Danny only left a couple of minutes ago a couple of minutes ago Dollar do you find anything? No I mean during that Well during your walk along the beach. No no no now listen That telegram randy sent me telegram. Yeah. Yeah make contact with p o he said P o well, it was a typo. He meant to say pd to contact you Oh, well, it was a lucky mistake because sergeant. I may be nuts completely nuts But I'm betting that p o is the answer to this whole thing To how he got that money out of new york out here where he could use it Trust nothing short of the u.s. Government. Huh feeling all right p o of course Hey, listen, you know this town where everything is for sure Then there's just one building around here. I need to know the location and I hope I can get there before he does The p o the post office I drove to was only a few blocks from Danny's home Danny's car was parked in front I slipped inside and waited behind a post One of the windows he was second in line behind a ragged-looking whiner who was counting out pennies to buy a stamp says There's three says Come on.  Hey Clark. Oh, hello, mr. Diamond. I have a package for you That's what I come for I've been wondering when you'd call for it It's uh from new york city. Just sign here, please. Yeah, yeah Okay. Thank you, mr. Diamond. Here's your package I want his stamp I came out from behind the post bumped into the drunk and tore at the wrapper of denny's package Hey, what's a big idea? You're sorry It's you it's you and here in the package you mailed yourself to 75 000 bucks. Get away get back Oh, no Danny Okay Now on your feet I'll drop that Danny. Maybe the state will take care of that About that money forget it. Just take a look at that poor old drunk who was in front of you that wild shot you pulled off Murdered Danny Now it's murdered From here on in of course, it's in the hands of the law the courts As to credit for solving this one Well, actually it all goes to a simple typographical error Funny Expensive outtotal including hotel on the trip back to harford 397 70 yours truly Johnny dollar our star will return in a moment Constipation is something people don't talk about much But it can be a problem for anyone even doctors And when constipation occurs It's interesting to see just what doctors consider important about a laxative. They might use or recommend Well, a majority of the doctors we heard from had this to say A laxative should be effective gentle as close to natural acting as possible And the medicine that can be used with complete confidence Now x-lax has been popular with many doctors and millions of people over the years Because pleasant tasting chocolate at x-lax is effective overnight. It helps you toward your normal regularity x-lax is gentle next morning It gives you the closest thing to natural action And that's why many doctors and millions of people use x-lax with complete confidence x-lax the laxative that helps you toward your normal regularity gently overnight Is x-lax in your medicine cabinet? Now here's our star to tell you about next week's story next week a real wildly a real strain on my sanity But I think you'll like it. So join us. Won't you yours truly johnny dollar Good and is written produced and directed by jack john stowe Heard in our cast where virginia greg harry barthel herb vigren james mccallion stacey harris and gill stratt Be sure to join us next week same time and station for another exciting story of yours truly johnny dollar This is john wall speaking Next a modern mystery classic agnes moore has eight suspense performance of sorry wrong number on the cbs radio network You are invited to attend barony birth fifth annual sports night cosponsored by gideon lodge number 140 and the albany olympic committee Admission is free. So plan to be there starting at 8 p.m. On thursday February 18th at chesler's hall to greet mr. olympics himself the great jesse oland Who will be the featured guest of the evening Other honored guests will be 12 high school seniors who have been each selected by their respective albany high schools As exemplifying all around fitness in the american boy and girl In recognition of their outstanding achievements Bounty births will award each of them an olympic style jacket and achievement shield And an annual sports night would not be complete without the presentation of the nanny birth sports award This year's recipient will be philip styler high school's popular basketball coach larry o neal Who is being given the award in recognition of his outstanding work with youth in the city of albany? These are just a few of the reasons that you don't want to miss any birth fifth annual sports night on february 18th radio 59 wrow first on the dial serving albany try and connectivity