Okay, so what is that? I think it's about 245. It's the optional session, so thank you for coming. My name is Jaya Mathew. I'm a data scientist with Microsoft and we've been working on a bunch of different customer use cases, primarily external customers, and based on my experience I kind of thought that I'll actually give a short talk on how to quickly add multi-language support to any of our AI applications. So let's quickly look at the agenda. So I kind of thought that before we get into how it gets done, it might be useful to just have one slight kind of introducing the topic of machine translation. Why do we need it? A little short description of the evolution and applications and then we'll focus on neural machine translation. So that's where most of the work and research is happening right now. To kind of piece all this together I kind of thought that it'll be useful to show a sample use case which shows you how speech from one language gets translated to speech in a different language and how all the different APIs can be kind of pieced together to do this end-to-end process. I have some useful links towards the end. So I mean some of the things, some lecture videos, some papers, some of the Microsoft tools, documentation. So I think it's kind of nice to leave the audience with something in case they are interested. I hope to have a couple of minutes towards the end for questions and answers. Otherwise I'll be in the room in case there are any questions. Okay, so now let's get started with what is machine translation? So pretty much most of us have used either Google Translate or Bing Translate. So that's one of the classic use cases of machine translation. So essentially here's a screenshot where I kind of type out this little word hello and it auto detects hello as being English and then I'm interested in trying to figure out how to say this in Hindi. So then it kind of gives me the Hindi Devangiri script as well as the transliterated where it kind of tells the native user how do you actually say it, although I cannot speak the language. So now, so this is what machine translation is actually doing. It's actually the task of automatically converting text from one source language to a target language. So now why do we really need it? So if you kind of look at the current landscape, most of the content that gets generated is in a single language. And so now if you want to cater to an audience which is much larger than just one language, you would need to somehow translate it from one language to another. So now trying to do this manually is extremely costly. So if you think about this is primarily to augment human productivity.  Somehow the machine just has to do it. It's more scalable and it actually even drops down the cost. But the performance of machine translation systems are still to reach human parity. So I mean there are some issues but at least it does it at a much rapid clip. Okay so now let's quickly look at the evolution. So it's kind of interesting to just look at the slide to kind of understand how it's evolved over the years. So in terms of machine translation the first way was something known as rule-based machine translation known as RBMT where you know this bunch of expert linguists who understood languages came up with a bunch of rules and said this is how you would translate from one language to another. This is kind of cumbersome, takes a lot of work and effort to have all these linguists experts in the language kind of tell you how to translate from one language to another. Then came the next wave which was the statistical machine translation SMT in short where you're trying to translate a text from one language to another given a huge bunch of examples. So you have parallel data sets essentially so maybe it's data in English and data in Hindi and you're actually telling the statistical model to kind of build you know some sort of rules on its own as opposed to have a linguist to it. So then you have you know word-based syntax-based and phrase-based models. So again this was effective at that point in the 1990s but then the performance of these SMT models started to plateau off and that's when a bunch of work especially by Google and other companies came in the domain of neural machine translation. So that's when what is a computing became cheaper then it was easier to run all these deep learning models like RNN, LSTMs and then it was just easier to have one huge neural network do the entire translation from you know source to target. So now over the next couple of slides we'll just quickly look at what statistical machine translation is. I think I mentioned pretty much that it's either word-based, phrase-based, syntax-based translation and there's a bit of alignment that needs to be done because many a times each of the words don't map to a single word it might map to multiple words or in a different language. Now let's look at what a neural machine translation is. So here's like I said an end-to-end you're trying to just model the entire process. So just give it the data. So this is one big artificial neural network typically an end-to-end encoder decoder and it has a bunch of different either RNN, GRU or LSTMs. Okay so now okay so before we actually get into neural machine translation which is the focus of this talk kind of thought that in addition to the Bing Translate example I'd actually just outline a few more examples. So here is so these are some of the APIs that are readily available so we don't have to go and reinvent the wheel to try and you know do translation from one language to another. So we have APIs which automatically detects what the input language is and can actually using the API translated to one language or you can use an API to translate one of the words or a sentence from one language to multiple languages or you can actually do transliteration which is where you have language in let's say English and you're interested in trying to convert it into Chinese but you don't know how to speak Chinese so then it has the transliterated script which kind of enables the user to kind of say it or you can also you know use it as a bilingual dictionary where you have examples of human translated sentences and synonyms for some of the words. So these are some of the few applications that we support I'm sure there are many others but this is a few of them. So now let's get into what is neural machine translation because that's what we use and I think most of the companies actually use this right now. So essentially to kind of understand this so this is just an overview slide we get into a deep dive on the next slide but in this one we essentially look at neural machine translation as just essentially two steps. So the first step is something called encoding and the second is something called decoding. So in the encoding phase each of the model kind of models each word based on context within the full sentence so that's the encoding so it creates this huge vector and then the decoding phase essentially takes that vector and translates it word by word within the context into that destination target language. So now this looks quite simple but in reality it's not as simple so we'll actually look at how it looks in real life. So here is so let's assume we have an English sentence that I'm interested in translating it to French or Italian or anything any of the languages. So the first layer is where each of the model is modeled in context so assume that in this step you have a neural net which creates a 500 dimensional you know vector for each of the words so this is the first word then it actually what is that creates a thousand dimensional vector model to kind of also capture the context of the word. So this gets done for each of the words in that sentence okay so this is a not very long a sentence but let's say about 10 words in the sentence. So then what you kind of do is you actually repeat this process and it's not essentially just one encoder one decoder it's kind of nested so you repeat this process many times you have many layers so that you kind of get the context in a much better fashion and you come up with this final input matrix so this is actually the input matrix that gets into your decoder step but if you simply have a encoder and decoder what happens is in very long sentences it is unable to find the context and forgets some of the information about the past so typically nowadays this attention algorithm is something that is quite popular where you know an attention layer is put between the encoder and the decoder and it kind of has some sort of memory as to what happened in the past okay so then this attention layer information along with that final input matrix gets into your decoder layer so compared to the previous slide this looks way more messy in terms of how many layers it has and everything so now this decoder layer essentially translates the neural net that thousand dimensional uses the attention algorithm and starts translating each word one at a time based on context so this is uh how the entire nmt actually works okay so now I kind of alluded to why we don't simply have just an encoder decoder in the previous slide so essentially if you think of just using a vanilla sequence a sequence and especially when it comes to very long sentences typically greater than 30 words it tends to have very poor results just because of the fixed dimensionality of the decoder so that's where like I said the attention layer comes in and it actually helps somehow influence the past out of the future prediction of the world so then the next question is okay I have this attention thing now which part of the vector should I focus on so you know you kind of build a context vector with some sort of weighted average to do that so this is just some of the issues I think there are some other issues but I just picked on two of them so then um so to kind of also you know wrap up this nmt piece is why is uh neural machine translation much more popular than statistical machine translation or rule-based machine translation so here is this is just so much simpler it's just an end to end training all the parameters are simultaneously optimized to minimize the loss of the entire network so it's a one step you don't have to maintain multiple little models and stuff then there's distributed representations so there's sharing of word and phrase similarities and you know better exploitation of context of that word in a sentence as well as it ends up being um you know it's more fluent text generation so it's kind of shown quite good results of late so we also tend to use it most of the time now so now to kind of actually show how this works in terms of a speech translation use case so here what is a speech translation tool so essentially you have a client app that captures some amount of voice or something and then that uh audio file is sent to some web api and then the web api does something and it actually sends out the translated text it can send it out as either text or even voice okay so now we'll get into how this actually works so here's where the audio comes in first so the first thing that happens in an end to end tool that you want to do is use something called an automatic speech recognition tool so that's where you know the speech gets translated into it assumes that the speech has something like can can you hear me so most of the times when we humans talk there are pauses and then sometimes we repeat words and uh sometimes uh you know we say the wrong incorrect word and it's it's difficult for the tool to automatically recognize so we would need to clean this up because in this case maybe by mistake I said can can you hear me and then so it's captured everything so it needs to remove the duplicate words and then here is like I mean there is h e r e there's h e r it needs to look at the context and kind of decide which one actually makes sense so we have something called a true text piece which kind of helps correct this text that was captured so what it first does it okay it kind of sees that there are two duplicate words remove that then it it looks at it again and in the context it's like well h e r e doesn't kind of make sense in here let's correct it to hear me okay so it finally corrects the whole thing into can you hear me which is which makes more sense in this context so now that the transcript is ready we will send it for machine translation so this is what happens and it gets into machine translation in this case we're trying to translate text from English to Chinese so the translated API just uses NMT and does the translation and finally you can use the text to speech to kind of translate this text into speech in Chinese and give it to the customer okay so this is how we would actually piece all the different APIs that we have and we don't have to think about building the model we can always customize it because we have options to do that so if you look at this during the entire process partial transcripts final transcripts as well as translations are available in case we need to use it for something else training some other data you know model or anything so right now I think I mean the number of languages supported are this but it just keeps changing I mean they do increase the scope of different languages and language support okay so now what happens is many a times I don't want to use API as it is because it does not fit the industry the context that I'm trying to do so that's where I want some sort of customization in here so we have support for custom speech custom translator and custom voice so in this case you know if we have our own data we can bring it in and actually just build over the pre-trained models so we don't have to do all the heavy weight of building the model from scratch we have something that works using all the data that we have and then we just bring in our additional thing so in here so you know I mean if you're looking at specific IT related terminology maybe a general model doesn't have all that in there so that's when you know and you might want to build over one of these generic models and then training a model from scratch is complex expensive and most of the companies don't want to go through that whole process so that's where we actually would recommend using custom translator so the way we kind of evaluate this is if you look at the blue scores a generic model on any sort of data would give you a blue score of roughly 20 to 30 a human is you know much is is one of the best sitting in here between 50 and 75 I mean but if you kind of give some additional industry specific data you can actually bump up the blue scores not as perfect as a human but it's right in between like 30 45 depending on your data okay so now this is here here's where you're trying to translate a sentence I think from French to English and this is using your generic model so now I mean if you look at the if you read the text it doesn't really make too much sense so what you do is you essentially try and build a custom model this is just a very simple four step process where you first upload the data so you have to have a parallel corpus of data whatever the language is if it's Hindi English French English whatever so essentially you have two files which could be text and there are various formats that we support and you need to give this data you upload it into the system for training so once this data is uploaded you train using this data to build a custom model okay and then you can test it with either new data or if you have withheld some of the data and didn't use it for training you can do that and finally you essentially just a little so it kind of says that with this little bit of data there's a little bit of improvement compared to the general model so if you give it more data more pertinent data it does improve quite a bit and then you kind of deploy it and if you kind of compare this with the previous one let's see it ends up correcting the English sentence slightly better so that's the whole aim of actually customizing what you have with your data so it actually takes away all the complexity of trying to build any of the nmt models from scratch and you're able to leverage some of the work that is already done use the apis do a little bit of tweaking and it's just so quick to actually do it for any of your applications now to yeah yeah so I kind of think I have a couple of minutes left and that's kind of perfect so I actually wanted to leave everyone with a few links so the first two were kind of really interesting blogs then I kind of thought that it's interesting to read about LSTMs neural you know RNNs then that's the paper with attention models that is good to read and that's what I got the information from and the last link is actually a Stanford lecture series on NLP it's a series about 18 to 19 videos about one or 20 minutes each and it's really worth looking at that so then you know the last is some you know information about our translator too and yeah I think that's that's pretty much what I had so if there are any questions I'm here I think I'm almost out of time but I'll be here if anyone has any questions so actually so you so if you have a lot of data that is patent related data and you have some sample you know in your destination target language if you train it in the custom model it should be able to do it you need the parallel corpus so English or whatever language yeah so I think I think the initial step for even some of the things that we do we actually need to hire people to manually translate it and then give in some sample data because without that so but I think the requirement for how much data is needed is just about 10,000 sentences in so I'm actually thinking if you just have about 10,000 sentences of that patent translated into a different language you can actually feed it in this upload it and see if it actually works we've seen quite a bit of success even with just 10,000 sentences so I mean yeah the first step is hard to get the data in the format is expensive yes yes yeah and I think even initially when they started off with some of the tools that we have we actually hired people to do the translation into languages because without that we don't have the training data I had a question here yeah regarding the attention layer of the model could you clarify when when you say it's learning from the past which means it's it's called already data of in that in the in the target language already stored I mean what is that no no so if it's so it actually has some information about the source language okay so the source sentence so if it is this is my name something so then that attention layer kind of remembers the very first few words because otherwise it doesn't remember the first few words loses the context and only looks at the immediate previous word and makes mistakes so it's a source language not the it is a source language okay thanks


Okay, very good morning. Hope you're doing well. It is Wednesday the 17th of June Just before I begin don't forget to like and subscribe to the YouTube channel if you're watching this there It's your one-stop shop for everything from fundamental and technical analysis But also check out Amphitrading.com just looking at the website here if you scroll down you can find Different kind of action points depending on what your needs are so whether you are looking to become a professional trader or a student looking to Gain some practical experience then there's relevant sections and then on the trader page if you scroll down There is actually our on-demand e-learning portal of which if you just start now you can get access to a couple of Free taster sessions, so do check that out But let's just talk about the markets and what's going on this morning And if anything I would say it's it's kind of like a consolidation from what has been a fairly bumpy ride over the last few days that being the kind of catalyst of a sell-off that we had last Thursday with renewed fears kind of Priced in of the potential second wave and still the virus needs to be tracked very carefully But then obviously we've had a big bounce so far this week and and yesterday a period of relative Consolidation so as far as the charts are looking this morning at the open. It's fairly flat index futures and marginally positive The S&P up about four ticks the DAX is up about 18 Gold is basically flat the 10-year down about three ticks and currency pairs also flat So all in all My overall view I mean I'll talk about some of the individual stories that are in play this morning certainly there's a few growing tensions on various different geopolitical hotspots globally but there's not too much in a way of Kind of directional view that I hold this morning specifically and so in the situation like that I prefer to just kind of mark up the charts and let really the market price dictate actions In that sense and not really try to to force a view like the markets are overvalued The Bank of America hedge fund kind of surveyed it came out yesterday was talking about how all these investors think the market is oversold You know try not to get too drawn into that and just kind of trade what you see in that respect until we get the next kind of catalyst and the catalyst as it has been over the recent week or so Likely to come on any virus type updates. It's probably the main thing But let's just have a look then a couple of the headline stories Stock futures drift after rally so kind of as I've described This is one of the the kind of headlines in the morning Beijing moves to contain new outbreak in Florida Cases jump so authorities in the Chinese capital city have reported 31 new Coronavirus cases as of today They've ordered all schools to shut and imposed restrictions and more than 1200 flights in and out of Beijing have been cancelled so certainly the story of which we were talking about That did weigh on markets initially at the reopening of trade We had the gap down on Sunday night and the initial selloff and European Open on Monday that still is a Situation in development at this point but authorities, you know, one of the things about why naturally a second wave typically is smaller than the first is that the authorities are in a better position to act more quickly and Also general public awareness for the matter is now increased And so there should be an ability to react in a more appropriate way in a more timely fashion So that's not to say that this has been resolved and certainly China are taking these measures very seriously But we'll have to continue to monitor that and then in Florida Infections reached a new high Texas or hospitalization surge as well So some of those key areas still warrant watching but I'd say at the moment not enough to kind of spook the market like what we saw Last Thursday, I guess last Thursday was kind of even though those Rate trajectories were kind of getting more steep. It wasn't really a real market focus at the time Attentions were kind of scattered elsewhere, but now people are monitoring this more intently. They kind of know the daily Incremental changes that we're seeing from a pretend percentage point of view over the seven-day average And it's not enough at this point to spook the markets beyond of what we already know. So again, we monitor with great vigilance But markets seem to be able to digest this now and of course it comes in the context of a couple of different things We've had Jerome Powell speak Yesterday giving the initial kind of Senate hearing in his testimony talking about the US economies a long way to go before it reverses the substantial damage from the pandemic so Interlating towards this kind of mildly dovaged stance that we heard from the Fed last week with that dot-plot Indicative of interest rates in America staying basically at ground zero for the foreseeable future until at least through 2022 Then you've had the Trump administration the one trillion infrastructure proposal You've had the Fed started buying individual corporate bonds And then of course you had US retail sales come out yesterday and wow, what a number I mean, it was it smashed the kind of top ceiling of the most optimistic estimate and It's so crazy, you know looking at these charts the last 20 years of some of this statistical data You know, we've never really seen anything like it a Catastrophic drop and then an almighty recovery so, you know question marks of course about Whether or not that could be sustained and and and probably not up to the degree in which it printed yesterday But certainly as well that helping just generally offset Then the kind of still, you know, there are other areas India Brazil still have got infection rates on the rise at this point in time But for the moment, as I said, it's being overshadowed by the steps taken on the stimulus front by fiscal monetary And also some of the surprising strength in the US economy And if you think about the the payroll data this data and we are expecting further recoveries off The kind of bottom-worst scenario that we had in that April numbers that are materializing now in some of the main figures reflective of the economy reopening So other than that the other thing that a lot of people are talking about There are a couple of these geopolitical stories and at the moment I amplify every summer we have interns with us and they always have quite a fresh perspective on markets Because typically they're not used to seeing things on such a short-term intraday basis and and obviously quite a few questions We're about what's going on in on the Indian China border. What's going into North Korea and you know is and why Why not is the market reacting to this and so yeah a couple of things to outline here Let me go through the details of the stories first and then I'll give you my overall kind of assessment But this is one of the main headlines 20 Indian soldiers killed in a clash with Chinese troops in the Himalayas So Chinese Indian troops have been basically engaged in a standoff for and it's intensified over the last few weeks So disputed territory in the region. This is goes back to about early May But this has been a long-going historical thing, you know, if you are aware of just general I guess history within that geographic region The kind of sovereignty of the land in that specific area is quite a contentious issue India and China They did fight in fact a border war back in the was the 1960s But since then there's kind of been a soft truce if you like the the armies on both sides of the border As part of that deal were not armed But they found other ways to obviously raise conflict and then it's it's resulted in this latest episode of which we've had Which is troops being killed which would in fact be the first time in many decades of that taking place I think since 1970 so now why is this happening and why now and so on so a couple of things to be aware of this is a Map of the area in question and as you can see here the grey matter here is China and We're back in this this kind of area which is a hotbed if you like of contention and that is because this is Kashmir and Kashmir as you'll remember going back to the Indian elections a few months ago It was all right at the epicenter of that political Kind of event because about clashes at that time between India and Pakistan, of course Whereas now what we're seeing is much more to further to the east Which is the indian-administered Kashmir and where it borders then on the Aksai chin the Chinese Administered area which includes then particularly the Gowen Valley the hot springs and Pangong Lake as you can see identified by these red dots, so This is the kind of area, but you know if you zoom this out a little bit It will probably make a little bit more sense. So here is the proposed China Pakistan Economic corridor now if you remember this quite clearly Guadal is the southern port in Pakistan of which has received an immense amount of investment directly from the Chinese government and the reason for that is This is kind of the Silk Road map zoomed in on one of the most important economic belts within the long-term vision of the Chinese infrastructure planning for global trade now in order for This to happen then China needs to form very close alliances with certain countries Now one of these has been Pakistan But as we know there is a long-standing tension in certain parts between India and Pakistan And so here then lies the kind of root of some of the recent Hostilities is because what's happening here is the investment has gone on to these south kind of ports and Arabian Sea and Guadalum Pakistan and They're helping build the infrastructure China that is from a financing perspective in Pakistan and that leads then all the way through kind of the right along the border of some of the the areas of Kashmir that of course are often a hotbed of activity for political unrest so Here then from a political connections point of view India is obviously more aligned with the USA in terms of the general political order and That in itself then has this kind of proxy element to the ongoing trade war of what's happening between China and the US now China in the US and what's been going on with say the Hong Kong security law or the escalation in trade tariffs and soy beans I mean that seems a world away from the Himalayan border But it's not really because actually the political connotations are still there. So at the moment USA a kind of they've said they're monitoring the situation It was kind of similar if you remember when there was Confrontation at the time with deaths between India and Pakistan in the in the Kashmir a few months ago And the USA were highly reluctant Really to get too involved because they know if they do then it's going to be met with resistance from China And then that in itself could jeopardize the overall trade war. It's just another element To make those talks more problematic. So, yeah, that mean there already is a There's a there's at the core of it There's a problem about sovereignty first and foremost between who owns these specific areas between China and India and then there's this more top-level bigger picture story The under lies it which is that between the US and China and their alliances strategically in that area So I hope that makes a bit more sense from a geopolitical point of view The other thing of course then is South Korea now North Korea blew up an inter-Korean liaison office near the country's border with the South And that was what two days ago or so now Pyongyang has rejected a South Korean offer to Send a special envoy for urgent talks and reiterated plans for its military to re-enter the border areas. So North Korea Here has definitely ramped up its kind of aggression on the peninsula interestingly as I've said many times before whenever you start to see Somewhat of a material breakdown in the communication relationship between the US and China It's almost the similar to what we've just described with what's happening with India and in the Kashmir There is actually a problem there between the sovereignty as we said between China India There is a problem here between the border and between the North and its Alliances of which they have with North Korea typically with China and South Korea typically with America So here then lies the same problem You have this kind of suspiciously accurate Correlation between hostilities in the peninsula to the the current Kind of context of the ongoing trade negotiation between the US and China Normally the worst it gets the more hostilities you start hearing coming out of North Korea now I'm not trying to be a conspiracy theorist here Suggesting that China are at the heart of trying to order Kim Jong-un to do whatever he sees fit but what I'm saying is that China definitely have the ability to better control and Maintain peace and order within that region and so if they like and they see fit They can back off a little bit that allows Kim Jong-un to be a bit more assertive and aggressive against other parties Namely here the South and that's problematic because that in itself is almost a test on America because of America's alliance with South Korea Again, I know this is all probably Going perhaps a little bit over your head for some of you But but certainly no geopolitics is is a fascinating subject. There's a book. I highly recommend to everyone to read It's called the prisoners of geography. I'll put a link into the video So you guys can check that out, but it explains all of this, you know, none of this is new You know tensions in these regions have been ongoing for decades If not hundreds in some case thousands of years, you know, it's just history repeating itself in a modern context in this respect Bringing it back though to trading. What does it mean for markets today? I? think very little and The main reason for that is because really two things for one as I've just said with that last point. These are not new Particularly new episodes. Yes, they are escalation from where we have been Particularly in the case of India. It's been, you know, I guess the best part of 50 odd years since we've had deaths related to the sovereignty on that border in the Himalayas, but That doesn't know markets at the moment are focused on other things if there was no virus if we were not in a pandemic if The stock market was not so disconnected at the moment to Main Street You know, if there wasn't these other things happening then you're sure geopolitical events such as this nature could have the propensity to move markets at the moment the way I see it is that they're just Not important enough to overshadow the bigger Subject matter at play at the moment, which is how is the economy going to perform under the guise of the pandemic? And then that is related to then what is the performance of the virus and what is the reaction from authorities? I central banks and governments to counter at this that at the moment is still a way bigger focal point for markets not unless something extra ordinary happens with the situation But as we've seen many times before Even with North Korea, you know for some of you blowing up a liaison office might look when you watch the pictures or videos a little bit punchy It's not actually that Unusual to see that kind of aggressive Event unfold in that region. So yeah, we track these things. We have it in the back of our minds. It's not Something that we completely disregard but at the moment I would not see that as a factor That's just going to turn the tide of risk sentiment And if that were going to be the case, it would have already happened and it hasn't which kind of supports that view Anyway, so yeah, hopefully that makes a bit more sense in how I interpret this type of information This is then something else coming off completely different subject I'm going to talk Brexit just for one moment and another good kind of lesson I guess I can I can give you because again, this isn't important so much for the pound today from a training perspective But hopefully I can explain a little bit how how I construct these views about over the medium term An asset might perform and this is a very useful timeline going from left to current day to right Which would be basically the end of the year and then to the end of 2022 but the end of the year being here and it gives you every fixed Predetermined milestone for Brexit negotiations that we know of at this point in time So for me, that's a very important factor because it helps me identify then how I can perceive The future news cycle to look like and the reason why that is important is as we've been discussing with these other subjects Like the geopolitics in the context of the pandemic, you know, there's all these ongoing things happening at any one point in time So if I know then when there is a big milestone event happening Well, then I can probably foresee then that in terms of this hierarchy if you like of the major macro themes One is about to potentially supersede another if there is a deadline approaching because it's kind of like a do or die Moment if you like for that subject. So for here, then it's very useful to know You know, what this kind of looks like, you know, where the potential increases in volume Volatility market positioning could occur going into generally these deadlines as the news starts to intensify as well And generally focus shifts to a new narrative So here with danska, I'm not saying that their their view is Is my view or the view but definitely I think reading A lot of different banks views about what they foresee for brexit is quite an important Way to to basically formulate your own opinion And so let me give you danska's take they're basically saying their base case, which they're assigning a 65 probability Remains a simple free trade agreement on goods Not services in the autumn. So they're looking at around this type of time And remember that's what we were talking about the briefing yesterday Some of that press in the uk was suggesting as well at the weekend that actually It's looking like they're not going to request a formal extension. I think from the The line that the uk government are following at the moment It's looking like that's not going to happen So then it's a when can they do a deal and as far as a lot of people are expecting as a baseline assumption for most banks Is that we can in fact get a deal done by the end of the year But don't think that that's just the end and that's brexit done You know, this is just the beginning It's going to be a pretty simple deal and i'm one on agreement of goods and not services So plenty more work to do but enough for the politicians to claim a victory that they've progressed Danska say they do not expect any breakthrough this summer again It's the autumn they're looking at And they say they still assign a 35 probability of a no deal brexit by year end So don't forget once we go through june the important matter here is You've now got to get a deal done by autumn end of the year latest And so here you can see the end of the year, you know last chance saloon would be The mid december EU summit, but it's the october one So potentially the new soft deadline the sixth round of negotiation Could happen here more formally and then that could lead to then an agreement in october Is what these guys are thinking but it is echoed by several other banks that i've read of late We have had some uk data this morning. So just to get you up to speed CPI came in at 0.5 percent in line with expectations the lowest since june 2016 So again the figure in itself substantial from a statistical statistical point of view the lowest since june 2016 But the markets do not care remember It's as in line with expectations a decrease In this case given the situation is to be expected So none of these numbers coming out of line and thus no reaction cable cables flagged this morning as well as it trades on the pandemic front The uk health minister hancock has come out this morning. He said they are so that number of which Needs to stay below zero to stop then this exponential growth of the virus spreading He has reported this morning and it's below one in all regions in the uk at the moment This is what you've probably read in the papers about pressure on bryce johnson now committing to reducing that social distancing From the coming two meter rule In the oil markets the final thing then to cover we did have the oil infertories Of course this comes ahead of the doe numbers later And we had an api build a 3.8 57 million. That was a surprise actually, you know if you think about it A lot of people, you know here there were expectations of storm related drop in infertories Remember we had christabelle go through the gulf of mexico Only a couple of days ago and some were expecting then that that would lead to a bit of a drawdown, but Far from the case. We actually had a build Now cushing was a draw of 3.289 million gasoline a pretty large build of 4.267 million so All in all oil did track a little lower After these numbers came out, but you know if you actually look at the oil chart here We're just in this new kind of area of consolidation for the time being and so Any kind of bearishness from those numbers counteracted by some of them the more positive Kind of economic situations unfolding like yesterday's retail sales The kind of pledges from the fed and the and the trump administration and so on So yeah, all in all markets fairly flat this morning Despite some of the geopolitical news that hopefully I've managed to bring you up to speed on I don't really see that as as particularly important for markets at least at this point in time So for now, it's kind of quite happy to sit on the hands Wait for the next kind of catalyst otherwise looking to play the market from a more technical perspective In a more range bound consolidation type pattern Unless something unscheduled were to develop All right, that is it as per usual any questions that you have Please feel free to to leave a comment love to to engage with you guys So so happy to do so as well every day going forward But otherwise have a good day and see you tomorrow morning


Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally. At<PHONE_NUMBER>. Now Larry Pezzavento. OK, looking good. Billy Ray feeling good, Lewis. Well, there's no Palo Verdes in the air today. They're out there blooming, but I'm feeling pretty good. I took some of this stuff that someone tried to take. Astro Pro nasal spray took one little square to that. And for the last 24 hours, I have been relatively free. So thank you very much for the medical experience. And I have my attorney looking in to see what your medical background is. In case I have a legal obligation to sue you. That's a joke. Hey, folks, I posted a chart here of top gunman himself, Jim Bartley. Only he'll be our guest next week. He's got some really great stuff. If you remember about three weeks ago, maybe about a month ago, he came on with his prediction that the banking stocks at the. NASDAQ, KRE were in big trouble. It looks like they was going to go down. It was a 3A2 exactly with an ABCD pattern there on the weekly. And the index dropped, you know, a considerable amount. Some of them are no longer on that index because they went bankrupt. But he will be our guest again coming up next week. This afternoon at 1 30 in a half an hour, we're going to have Paula Web Douglas has got a little special that she has. And then for for traders that are losing or just breaking even. And then also she's going to have something at 2 30 offering the same thing. But let's get to the heart of the matter, folks. And that is Fibonacci. Here's where we were. I just wanted to show you the other day. I know you're not going to believe this stuff. And if you don't believe in Fibonacci, folks, I I sympathize with you actually because I think it's a good thing. Maybe it works. Maybe it doesn't. But there was the number right there. Thirty three thousand eight hundred and forty eight. That was the sixty one percent retracement. And last night it backed off to exactly the point three eight two retracement right before the report came on. And from that it went all the way up and made a new high by eight pips and now has collapsed down and has gone back below the three eight two dropped over four hundred points to the downside. So something really big happened at that point.  Hold on one second here. Now I have to worry about a frog in my throat besides the Palo Verdes. Anyway, you'll see here that this is right up to this level here. We had it hit it exactly and now we're we're we're way down below here now. But what was interesting, folks, and I think I made a copy of it while it was going on, because I like to show these in real time. Right after this big four hundred point drop, guess what? It rallied exactly to the three eight two and thirty three thousand five seventy eight and now it's about one hundred and fifty pips below that. So I'm trying to what I try to do, I guess, and repetition is the mother knowledge and if I can prove to you that some of these things work, then by golly, that that's what my job is and that's what I try to do. And so that's what I'm going to be looking at as we look at some of these things here today, because we've had some really, really big things happen. Now it was a little bit different in the E-mini S and P. Let's just show you where we are here with the E-mini S and P. That was the Dow E-mini, of course. Now we're going to look at the E-mini S and P. And as we look at this now, you see these each day. So they're not mystery. You can see the A, B, C, D that we made here. We went right up to the 61 percent retracement. We went right here to the three eight two retracement right there. We went four points below it. The number was forty one twenty four. We went to forty one twenty and for there from there, we went straight up. Forty handles stopping exactly at forty one seventy three. That was a seventy eight percent of that high right back here. And now we're coming down going below. This is a major, major thing happening here, folks, today. That is good news and bad action. And if you've ever read reminiscences of the stock operator, then that's something that you really should pay attention to. OK, because that book gets behind the ideas of Jesse Livermore. And of course, he was a great speculator. He did not die bankrupt. He died. He committed suicide because he was in love with a 19 year old dancer from Louisiana that was in the Follies. And she was in love with somebody else. And my old beeper is breaking right now. There's the S&P making new lows. That's not a good sign, unless you're short. Hold on just a second here. I want to turn this off and we'll see what's going on. And we will go from there and not to worry. But there's so many Fibonacci stuff going on today, folks. Mr. Fibonacci, Leonardo de Pisa, the Fibonacci should be here today. You know, just talking about these things. But anyway, let me get the S&P up here and it's breaking. That was the beeper telling me that we're going back below the new 382, which is now we're not breaking below this level right now. But we had a beautiful 382 retracement after the move broke. We had just like in the S&P just did the same thing as the Dow. Really nice 382 retracement. And now we're breaking down, breaking down below it. So that's what I wanted to talk about. There's a couple of historical things that are important. Let's do the one in the gold market, because here again, we were doing the exact same thing in the gold market. If you want copies of these folks, if you'll let me know, I will send them out as long as you send in a big $150 donation per chart. And now I'm just joking. But if you do want the charts, I'll be happy to show you. But here's what we did here. There was the 382. We had shorted it right here. It went right down to our price level within $1. And then boom, we went right up and we stopped exactly at the 61. And this is really important, folks, because I had several people ask me a question. What I did was I picked the 78% level of this level right here to come in right there. But it's also 61% of this high right here. There was a double number there that I missed. Why I just picked this one, I don't know, but I should have picked this one. I want to thank W.R. over there in New York City to bring this to my attention because you have to take the highest high here and I didn't do that. It worked OK because it made the 78% level of that one, but it also made the 61%. And folks, it wasn't there on the blink of an eye like Starship Enterprise just went over it was gone. And it's now breaking down at 429. It's dropped well over $30 from that level. And we're taking out the 3A2. This is a major, major thing that's going on in all these markets today. And that's why it's so important. And we need to pay attention to it because guess what? We have to pay a few bills, 877, 927, 664, 8. Currencies, commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the dollar index, the euro dollar, pound dollar, dollar Swiss, dollar yen, as well as many more. And he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year T bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60 minute webinar archive. He just hosted forex strategies and fundamentals. What is behind the Tiger Forex report? For all the details and to start your 30 day Tiger Forex report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing it number two for the year. An amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn. And he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability Newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free at TFNN. All our newsletters come with a 30 day money back guarantee. So you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk free today. TFNN Educating Investors. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's daily market newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the market's open. To give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed, these newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights, today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk free with our money back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Free at 1-877-927-6648, internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Okay, folks, I'm going to go through a little talk here about historical stuff. I put a chart up here of the Treasury bonds over the last 10 years. You can see the big green triangles there. That's basically a three drive to a top pattern. You can see the ABCD pattern up here at the 190 level that it was hitting. This is when they were telling us about negative interest rates, how wonderful it was. You can see the ABCD to the downside and now we're in the midst of this 382 rally that's been going on that should end up around the 138 level. But let's go through just a little bit of the history of this stuff. They keep saying that the Treasury bonds, the faith of the U.S. government has never been changed before and that is not true. On August the 15th of 1971, Richard M. Nixon, President of the United States, took us off the U.S. dollar standard. In other words, he said the U.S. dollars would no longer be redeemed in dollars. It said if you have one of the old bills, which I have some of them, it says pay to the bear in demand, one ounce of gold, one ounce of silver, whatever it happens to be and that was full faith in government ever since that time and since 1971, that has not been the case.  Folks, if you ever believe anything that some of the governments tell you to never believe anything that was as silly as that, basically that brought on inflation. We were doing really good in 1970 until what happened was they took us off the gold standard and that made them to be able to print as many dollars as they wanted because they didn't have to be redeemed for anything. It's a fiat currency, just like all the other currency, these are. One year later was the beginning of the forex markets in the starting in London, that's where the home of the forex is. This was the careers of the main guys from the Commodity Corporation, Bruce Covener, billionaire, Ed Segota, hundreds of million, Rick Barnes, hundreds of millions, Mike Marcus. He was the one that ran silver from four dollars up to fifty four dollars. And those guys made an absolute fortune. But that was the start of the foreign exchange markets because they realized there was a foreign, the foreign. And what happened was it was what's going on here? Something's wrong. Oh, I can't do that right now. Oh, God, let's get this out of the way and we'll be OK. Sorry, that was I would get my train of thought again, folks. That was sorry. But it was a start of the foreign exchange markets. And it was basically what it was, is ours being the cleanest, dirty shirt.  It's been a huge business for many years. Oh, dear, I can't. I folks, I have to take this. I'm sorry, this is the caretaker for my friend, Steve. Well, that was good news. He's coming out of his coma, which is good news, but he's still not doing too well. Let me get back to this. OK, and let me try to get my thoughts together. This was the start of the foreign exchange markets. Now, in nineteen seventy two at the same time, Nixon took us off of seventy one. He took us off the gold standard. But in seventy two, they allowed people to buy gold before they were not able to buy gold from nineteen thirty five till nineteen seventy two gold at that time, even though it was seven thirty five dollars an ounce officially, it was trading for about one hundred and twenty one hundred and thirty. Well, that was in seventy two. And it was brought on to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. That's not true, Larry. It was brought on at the knife of Chicago. New York Metals Exchange started it. And then about two years after that, seventy four, the CME came in and did it. And then they trading together. Well, the CME is the big one now. But then the London Metal Exchange, they had a London fix. And the fix was an absolute joke also. But anyway, that's how now that all this stuff started. And you know, and so we've been in a fiat currency for years, but they've never defaulted on a treasury bond because if you had a hundred thousand dollar bond, it was worth a hundred thousand dollars. But if you had held that bond, let's say you bought that bond in seventy two and they didn't start trading until seventy two. And no, seventy six is when the bond started trading. Nineteen seventy six, because that's right. When I started working at Drexel, they started trading bonds. And the bonds were trading at about sixty. They were trading at under forty percent under the face value. So if you bought a hundred thousand dollar bond for forty thousand dollars, you would be able to get that money when it would mature. You'd get it at a hundred thousand dollars. The problem was inflation was at thirteen or fourteen percent. So it deflated it quite a bit. But anyway, it became a very large market and the top was made here two years ago with that one seventy level. When they tried to tell us that it was all about negative interest rates. And folks, that's that's why I'm a chartist. You know, I can look at these things all day long and say, holy cow, what am I doing right? What am I doing wrong? And that's the main thing that that I'm that I'm really worried about, you know, that whether these things can do it. Frankly, folks, if you want to know, I am in a state of shock because Steve is out of his coma and that's what that call was about. And I'm very, very happy to see that's all chat with him a little bit later. But it literally shook me up. He's been such a good friend and he's had such a great life. And I it's been tough. But guys, I've lost so many friends over the past five or six years that it's a little shaking me as we go through. Now, I wanted to talk to you. We talked about the gold on what it did. And then next one, we're going to be looking. I've got so much today, I could probably talk for three hours, but I'm only going to talk for two. This happens to be the silver market. And by the way, if you do have any phone calls, Al tells me right now that the thing is all lit up. You just can't get anything into the sequence right now. So what we're watching now is a Al said a line just opened up, but you'll notice here the silver went up to the sixty, seventy eight percent level. You saw it hit it exactly like gold. It stayed there for a heartbeat and now has broken down badly. So this is a this was a major A, B, C, D here in the silver exactly at the seventy eight percent level at six twenty. And we've been talking about that six twenty level for for quite a while. So these are some of the things that are happening in the Fibonacci family today. And that's why I think that they're so very, very exciting. But the fun part will be Paula, he's going to be coming up here a little bit, talking a little bit about the psychology of this. And then we're going to be back with you after we after we take a break. So I hope that when we get back that you'll have some questions for us and we'll have some others. I got some other charts that look really nice. One in particular is that it is not working. Almost all of them are working with the exception of the one the one for natural gas will be right back. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of. Sign up for the Fibonacci 24 seven newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to. And you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24 seven newsletter today. TFNN.com Educating Investors. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN. You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN Educating Investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Okay, folks, we're back and we had a lot of requests to have Paula back on this week. And she has got something special for you folks. So Paula, I think you and I were chatting yesterday about trying to help people that were still losing all the time or just barely breaking even. Is there anything you can do for them? Sure. Let's do this exercise this morning.  Hash, okay, not your debit card and put it in front of you. Okay. Okay, so now you're looking at this money. Touch it. Feel it. Look at it. See how pretty the dollar bills are created. You know, here's the 20, okay? Look at it. You know, they're really good designers for the money. All right. But so you have to ask yourself how much what is the denomination that you took out of your wallet? Well, largest one I had, which was a dollar. Okay. All right, so I'm gonna I'm gonna give you a good story here. At any given moment, when we were hanging around with Robert St. John, the legendary T bond trader, as you know, Rob Larry, at any given moment, he had $8 to $10,000 in cash in his wallet. Yep. This is no lie. And you know why he carried that money to remind himself to stay connected to the very money he wanted to grow as a trader. So if if you don't connect to your cash, and I'm not saying you have to carry eight to 10,000 in your wallet like Robert St. John did, but if you're not connected to the money that's in your trading account, meaning you're paying attention to it, you know, you're not ignoring your losses by not looking at your statements, anything like that, then then, you know, you can't grow your money if you don't know your money. Okay, that's that's my new edge phrase. All right, you can't grow your money if you don't know your money. And if you don't know your money by keeping track of it all, and being honest about your results, then you're going to keep losing. Yeah, this is that guys, it's just it's it's just common sense, right? It's just money management. All right. And if you don't have any money management principles, then give me a call for the free chat, and I will walk you through it. All right. A lot a lot of people don't have money management. Yeah. So, you know, Paula, do you remember the experiment that Mark did with on Michigan Avenue free money today? Remember, he's standing there and he literally had free money to give away and people would say no, I don't need any. They really didn't believe that they could get free money today. I mean, I couldn't believe it. I stood there with him for an hour. He couldn't give it away. Not not even well, they didn't have hobos back in those days or excuse me, homeless. But it was really amazing. I used to keep because of that experience. I used to keep $1,000 bill on my desk to remind myself the value of money. And of course, I gave that $1,000 bill to the kids but that now has a value. Oh, no. She sent it back as you had a crease in it. You didn't like it. But it has a face value of $1,000. But the problem is that it's worth about $3,500. We got him right from the buyer and I got him right from the Federal Reserve there in in Chicago back, you know, God, that was in 83, I think. Anyway, listen, I'm going to have you on again. And we'll talk more about this.  And you don't ever have to worry about it again. And that's that's the real important thing. So I think it's real important. So have the folks try that for a little bit. Call Paula if you have any give me a new phone number pt because I know you've got just got a new number. And that might help you to get some people to call in<PHONE_NUMBER>. That's the office number. That's a website right here, polytweb.com. And contact me that way too. I'm here seven days a week for all of you. Yeah, well, this is what our week is. It's always seven days. It's never been never been nine. If there were nine days, we'd do nine days, but we only get to do seven right. Yeah, because we love what we do. Yeah, that's that's that. Amen to that. That's for sure. Listen, thanks for joining us. And we'll have you on here at the next section at the same time right around 230 New York time. Okay. Okay, see you soon. Okay, you bet. All right. Paula T Douglas folks. And that is that's absolutely true story about that given money away free money because it's amazing because when you have your machine and you're watching it, the dollars going up and down, you're starting to that, but all that money does is it floats in front of you. You don't want to do it. I heard Mark give this lecture to so many of these guys that were, you know, they want to buy a new Ferrari, and they would be thinking about the Ferrari. And Mark would say, look, you see this billboard right here, it's got the Ferrari on it.  Because if you do the trade, the Ferrari is right behind it waiting. But if you've got the Ferrari in front of it, you're thinking of the money. And that ain't going to work.  You know, the C price is going down.  It's good by car, good by house, good by boat, good by savings account, and then good by wife, and then it's all over and then you get to start over again. So this the only thing that's different between us and gambling here is we get decide when we get in and when we get out in gambling, you do not have that decision. Soon as that event starts, you have no control over it. But then trading, you can make a mistake, get out of dodge and start and do it again. And that's really all you have to do as you're starting to do this. I want to try to spend more time each day talking a little bit about the stuff that Mark taught me while we were together here for six years. I keep I keep my hand written notes. And this is the Bible of all the stuff that was in the class that he used to give. And it's always amazing. And of course, the secret to everything is you have to have a foundation and trust of what you believe it doesn't make any difference, whether it's a moving average or a Tom DeMark nine count stochastic. If you can get it to work for you, then it works for you. And that's what counts.  Nothing more than add subtract, multiply and divide. And that gets me to the home. It gets me to the home, the homeland. And that's that's what I'm trying to do. We've had a pretty good day today. And you know, that's they're not always that way. Sometimes you have good days. Sometimes you have bad days. But what you want to do is to keep your, you know, game plan working in the right direction. And then you should be should used to be just fine. I think at least I'm hoping that's the way it is. That's the way it's been working for a long time. I don't think it'll be any different. So if you have any questions, it's<PHONE_NUMBER>. Remember, folks, our guest on Friday will be more more analytics. And he's always got some really good stuff on the crude oil and we'll cover crude oil here on the second part of this after we come up to our next break. But we want to be that was a really great description of what Mark used to talk about with money because it really is important. Don't look at money when you're trading folks. Okay, we're going to take a break.<PHONE_NUMBER>. Billy Ray Valentine. Capricorn. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities. Subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. tfnn.com. Educating investors. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC. Tom O'Brien founded tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the market's open. To give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter Market Insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk free with our money back guarantee at tfnn.com. tfnn. Educating investors. Biotech is booming, but for how long? Whether you think the Biotech bull has room to run or has run its course, trade L-A-B-U or L-A-B-D directions daily S-M-P Biotech three times bull and bear ETFs. Visit directioninvestments.com slash biotech today. An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at<PHONE_NUMBER>. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Folks, I'm going to go through a series of three, eight, two retracements today. I've already been through the one on the Dow Jones and the S&P. Now I'm going to do the one this happens to be for this happens to be soybeans. We went right up to this it's backed off about $500. The other one that we I'm going to go through a bunch of them because they excuse me folks that wasn't soybeans that was the that was that was the Treasury bond. I'll do the soybeans, I'll do the soybeans next because it did why they do the same three eight twos I don't know but all I know is these darn things work and that's why it's so exciting and then you'll be looking at that. There's what you'll be looking at right here. There was your three eight two retracement right here was also 61% of that. You had the three eight two right here. You had the beautiful ABCD pattern to the downside. So it's just a matter of trying to identify some of these patterns and making sure that they line up the way that you think they should be lined up. Okay, that's a main thing. I've already covered the one on the E-mini S&P. I did the gold and I did the Dow Jones and I want to do the Euro. Okay now here is the one in the Euro. This one's a little bit tricky and the reason why is we've been short this for quite some time and what we were looking for was to see the bottom. As you can see here we're waiting for this bottom to form. There was your three eight two last night and then right before the report which came down and took out this low by one tick and we said look for the rally to come up here to get short again. I tried to get filled there. I didn't. I got filled around here and then I put it back out in here somewhere because it's still in a downtrend but it was moving so fast and I'm doing so darn many things. I just couldn't get it done right but you can see it's a pretty nice ABCD. It misses the target by about 10 pips and that's like that happens. There's nothing else you can do about that. So one that I think is very important but here's one that just didn't work and I want to go through the sequence for you okay. First we'll do one right here and that will be the natural gas and it was quite easy to see that it was not going to work because you didn't have to risk very much and if you put this up here and take a look at it there's your ABCD to the downside. This is where we were looking to get along. We thought it was going to get up here. We bought it Sunday night. We had our price objective up here buying the 382 retracement. This one was not a 382 because it made a higher high. You see if you did a 382 off of this one it didn't make it but if you do the 382 off of this one right here it made it today at 219 but it went $2 below it so $2 is all we wanted to risk and so we took a took a loss on that. I don't even know what it did after that because once I could complete a trade it's history mystery it's gone I don't want to have anything to do with it. So that's the main thing I try to get that stuff and folks I don't I do not have the function on my computer to tell me you know what the equity is on the on the whether I'm making or losing or anything. I don't I had them take that off so that it's not a I don't have to worry about the money I just worry about the price of the thing because that that thing with the money that's not a good thing folks. I mean it's really it really does and that's one of the things that made Tom Hougard the great trader that he is he had to he had to reprogram himself when he would see him making 30 or 40 grand and so boy that's a lot of money I better take it and then pretty soon he'd be up 80 grand. Soon as he figured out that was the wrong thing to do he became the great trader and that's it and by the way I've been just signed a contract today and I'm going to be doing live trading with Tom in Las Vegas, Nevada in November and for a couple days and I think we're going to have a we've got some nice he's already got some nice folks signed up and we haven't got the date exactly signed up is to two hotels that we've got the book there we're just waiting for the final offer and but it's going to be a done deal and we're going to have some fun doing that for two full days and that'll be 10 hours each day a lot of fun and he said you sure you can do it at your age and I said bubba I met him in Las Vegas in 2003 so it's been 20 years and I met him tell tell the story because it was fun he was there to see to see Bryce Gilmore Tom had been running a city indexes CNBC show on CNBC every day for Mike Spencer and he gave his ideas of what the market was doing he's very personable and he did a great job and when he left Mike Spencer gave him 18 months of full pay and that was that's got him started in his full-time trading career and he was able to do it but he was there to see Bryce Gilmore of two days of trading and of course we got there and the problem was Bryce went out with his friends from Los Angeles that for from Australia and they got they got in about four o'clock in the morning and we were supposed to start at five well he didn't quite make it until one o'clock and so Mark Mark and I were there and of course Robert St. John was there Rich Anderson was there and Mark said go on take over he says you know what you're doing he said we'll have some fun and so we just start trading and I start doing stuff just like I'm doing now nothing any different and we had about 50 people in the room and it had a great time three three really terrific days and the other two days of course Bryce was there and stuff but I did the first day and it was one of those days were almost like the day we had everything set up and it worked you know that doesn't always happen but that's what happened and Tom liked it so much he said I'm going back to Tucson with you and I said well I'll have to ask Mark I said because we drove over together and Mark said sure so he came over and spent a week and I actually stayed at the house one of the few people that's ever done that but at that time he was short bucks anyway it was fun and that's how I got the meeting now he does he's got a lot of followers in his book is the best loser wins as a huge huge best seller for his group over there in London and let's move on here I had one other one and this is one that we remember we talked about that hog trade that we missed we didn't quite get filled and so what I said was we're going to take a look at this and buy the first three eight and this is hogs I mean this is not for extra stuff but there it was you see there was this morning you went right down to that level right here and then you had a really nice move of a penny that's four hundred dollar moving hogs but now you see it's coming down now the way you handle this is you put your stop at break even so you're in a risk free trade I don't know I don't know what's happened I don't think I've been stopped out because I haven't seen the I haven't seen the flies come up so evidently it's held right there but they went right to that level and if you looked at it really closely what are you looking at you got a right here you got b right here you got c right here and you got d right up here at the one point two seven and if you wanted to be real creative if you counted the number of bars in the ab leg and then count the number of bars in the cd leg you have time and price coming together at the same time so this is what the risk control is all about if you have your stop setting in there you're not going to get hurt and that's what the patterns are for there to tell you that you either right or wrong because when they fail don't try to second guess them say oh maybe I should do this or maybe I should do that if it fails get out of dodge get on a different pony or rural whatever you're writing and do something else that's that's pretty much what you want to be doing that's my two cents worth and I'm sticking with it so we'll be right back eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight if you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter you should try Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals sign up for rocket equities and options report today with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your subscription today visit the front page of tfnn.com tfnn educating investors you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence this mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most 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Tiger's Den available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv i don't know if i'm on with tfnn or not i'm not sure okay broadsword to danny boy broadsword to danny boy come in danny boy can you see me can you see me ah boy okay sorry folks i'm just uh this is a such a good day i my friend uh siv has come out of his coma and i'm just uh i'm just ecstatic about it anyway let's just move on here and cover a few things uh i haven't looked at the markets and i would just want to let's just see where see if we're getting still getting whacked the uh let me see yeah we're down near the lows of the day down 300 into dowel well not down it was down 350 so it's uh headed down a little bit so a little bit here a little bit there so that seems to be all right and what else we got i think that's pretty much pretty much it the gold is uh come back about ten dollars off of its bottom but it's uh pretty much uh you know holding its own here uh so let's keep a close eye on that soy beans have sold off to be near the lows uh what else the gold is sold off of course the treasury bonds still sold off even after it hit the 382 and so we're having some pretty good information coming through here uh to make us think that we are getting pretty close to some of these uh spots that they're going to be very very important coming forward but the fact that we hit all of those numbers seven eight six in the s and p 50 percent 60 percent 61 percent in the dowel jones and 38 percent in the uh nasdaq and also didn't even come close to 38 percent in the russell tells us that we're still uh going ahead the last one we'll be right back seven seven nine 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