Hey friends today, we're hanging out at Six Flags great adventure This park is known for its amazing roller coasters In fact, it has the world's tallest roller coaster and North America's fastest roller coaster And a lot of them are themed after my favorite DC characters. That's why I'm wearing my Batman shirt So we're gonna ride some rides eat some food and enjoy a Six Flags kind of day. Anywho's Let's go do this This Six Flags is in New Jersey So it's real close to Pennsylvania if you guys don't know I'm on a little road trip at the moment going around Visiting my hometown and checking out my favorite theme parks up north and I think this is stop number 19 19 theme parks so far this year, and I'm just excited to be here Not only is this a theme park full of amazing roller coasters But it's also a safari that you can drive your own car through and you get to actually see amazing animals Like lions tigers and bears and they come up to your car. So I'm very excited to do that as well Here is a look at the map and there are so many Amazing rides here like I am so excited and they have separate themed areas So they have like a boardwalk area. They have metropolis movie town main street They have a main street and a frontier land bugs bunny area lakefront. So we're just gonna ride as many rides as we can Bon Bon is gonna be hanging out with me today And like I said, we're gonna ride a bunch of rides But I think we're gonna do the safari first because the safari is on the outside of the park And we're gonna do the safari and then we're gonna come back and ride the rides in here It is so cool that they have a wild safari drive-through adventure And it's outside the park. So you don't have to pay to get in the park I don't think you do you can actually just come and do this if you wanted to and we're gonna start off with this The safari is 2999 and it's per person. So me and Bonnie both had a pay. I think it was $60 and It's separate from the theme park So once you get to the theme park you actually pay for ticket to get in there But you could just come do this safari all on your own and you got to keep the windows up and the doors Shut so you can't get out of the car at all They give you this little thing to scan And you get like a little audio tour. Oh my lord. Look it. Hold on Bond. There's Buffalo in the road up here Do you see that? This is so crazy There's literally Buffalo's right in the middle of the road Please stay inside your vehicle and keep all windows doors and sunroofs All of our animals have specialized diets Welcome to check post 3 Africa in this section, you'll see some of the world's most iconic animals Let's begin with the massive African elephants Upper lip and nose and it's made up of more than 100,000 muscles It's prehensile meaning that it can grasp like a hand I'm sorry. My windshield is probably dirty. We just drove Three hours to get here and actually in total I've been driving like 20 30 plus hours this whole entire week Look at the giraffes in the middle of the road. This is so awesome Look at this I Haven't oh wow. Oh my lord bottom here comes another one coming up on your side. Don't open your window Haha, look at this this car can't move though The giraffe is literally blocking them in Wait, what's the giraffe doing licking the hood we're gonna try to creep by here. Hello, mr. Giraffe. Hello, Jeffrey We're gonna pass by Thank you You're now in Black Bear Ridge home of the American Black Bear I Have never been this close to a bear before look at that now that is big Al And there's what your bear is in the water, too That is the coolest thing ever seriously All right, I really love this safari that was really cool And how about the bear is getting so close to your car and like seeing like the giraffes and stuff like that Those are the things that I kind of get excited about because other than that It's just a regular like safari, but like having them come that close to your own car. I like it Now that we got the safari business taken care of we have to figure out what ride we want to ride There's parks so big and there's so many amazing rides They have the Jersey Devil Batman the ride skull mountain Justice League King to call like I said is the world's tallest roller coaster So I'm thinking maybe we should go like ride the Ferris wheel and get a look at all of the different rides from a higher perspective Whenever I come to like a theme park, I haven't been to a while I always try to ride like either the monorail or whatever the highest ride is we can get a grand View of the whole entire park so kind of gives you an idea of where you want to go And this Ferris wheel is actually pretty big in fact that they call it the big wheel the big wheel I'm probably most excited to ride King to car and maybe the Joker that the Joker has his own ride here his own roller coaster and Just overall all the DC universe. I love it. Like I really love seeing DC in the parks I'm so used to Marvel and going to Disney and Universal Studios because they're both a Marvel It's cool to see DC have some representation Looks like we're going in lucky e5 Lucky e5 Bon Bon It's also gonna be fun to see King to car from a high angle just to see how tall it really is. Oh, I think we're moving we're moving We're going all the way up Wow holy moly Oh, there it is. There's King to car over in the corner. There's a lot of big roller coasters here Holy moly Look at us. Oh Look at that big skull one right there I think we're gonna head over to King to car first Might as well start with the world's tallest. Look at it back there. Look at that Yeah, oh wait. Are we stopping? We're stopping at the top. I Always get scared when we're actually up top like this Oh right over there is Joker and then I can see El Toro and then oh Green Lantern Superman so many amazing coasters We have made it back. There we go Sometimes I like going on the Ferris wheel. I just don't like when they stop at the top and just let you sit there for a while But for now, it's time for King to car the tallest roller coaster in the world There are gonna be a lot of rides that I cannot bring the camera on I mean, especially King to car because like I said, it's such a thrilling ride They don't allow anything no lose articles But luckily enough Six Flags happily gave me a bunch of POV footage so I can show you guys what it's like to actually ride the ride And I love that I love being able to give you guys a look at what it's like even though I can't film it myself As you can see, I mean nothing is allowed on this ride no cell phones No keys no nothing and also a little fun fact on occasion King to cause train will not travel over the hill so that means sometimes it doesn't make it all the way over So this is a normal occurrence. The train is designed to safely roll back and reset to be launched again If that happens to us It is 456 feet tall and it goes 128 miles per hour and we are about to ride it.  I loved it though Yeah, my eyes were watering and I felt like bugs were hit in my face, too Like it was so so awesome. It goes by so fast, but just the adrenaline your heart It gets appounded. Yeah, I felt like Matthew McConaughey Bonnie's still trying to get her hair intact. Look at that You look crazy. It was it. Did you love it though? It was really fun. Yeah, it was a good ride Now we're gonna do another one. What we're gonna do next El Toro El Toro El Toro is actually one of the world's best wooden roller coasters if you guys Saw recently we were at Kenobals and they had two of the world's best wooden roller coasters But this is actually up there in the top five. So I'm excited. I don't think I've ever rode it before.  Look at I'm bald but look at Bonnie's face That is pure terror right there That was so awesome Earlier you guys might have heard me talking about the flash pass Which is kind of like the fast pass or the genie plus system here at six lag And it's actually really effective. They have all different ways to actually purchase it We ended up just purchasing a single rider flash pass Like not a single rider like a single one time use flash pass for king to car And it was only eight dollars a person and they also have different tiers So there's one for 60 dollars a person where you can wait Virtually, there's one for I think 120 dollars where you cut down the wait time by 90 percent So like there's definitely different options But I think we're just gonna stick to like purchasing individual ones like individual lightning lanes But here it is El Toro Look at that Oh boy You guys are out here Another one I got to tell you I am impressed so far with the coasters here at Six Flags great adventure I mean that was intense. I still think twister at condobles is a little bit more rougher like it You know what I mean, uh, but this one I mean the big drops are kind of what gets me the most And it's kind of crazy the fact that it's a wooden roller coaster Now we're gonna make our way back out to the front area where we first walked in Where more adventures await you or us or you or you Before we actually get to any other coasters Maybe we need to get something to eat Right and we came to the boardwalk area here and they have steak and fries boardwalk steak and fries And here it is a good old New Jersey boardwalk cheese steak looks really good And they put it on a nice little ciabatta roll. I can't wait to dive into this actually looks really amazing You can get either steak or chicken and they also have sausage in there Oh boy, I don't even know how I'm gonna eat this It's so hard because like Maybe if I try to open it up a little bit to put the peppers back in there the peppers and onions Just squeeze them in there. All right. There we go. I think I'll just bite on the side here Okay, that's good That's how you got to do it I might want to stuff some french fries in there too There you go That's how to make it a little bit better and then bomb bomb. What'd you get chicken strips chicken strips, huh chicken tendies For some reason I really thought this was going to be difficult to eat But the ciabatta bread is actually holding up pretty well. So who knows you boardwalk cheese dates As we're sitting here enjoying a cheese steak at the boardwalk area I think we're gonna head on over to Superman and Green Lantern and see about riding one of those I mean, they're right there. So might as well It's kind of funny though because Green Lantern and Superman are kind of not a part of metropolis because metropolis is over on the other side And they have their own little area over here because they're special We got Green Lantern right here. And then we got Superman ultimate flight right here The daily planet gift shop too. I'm thinking maybe we should try Superman. I mean I love Superman. So I mean Green Lantern's cool too though It has been decided we're doing Superman Superman all the way. Sorry Green Lantern Okay, I have to say that was pretty awesome I liked it a lot and it did remind me just like Manta at SeaWorld But this one I feel like is a little bit better because you're Superman and of course I held my arms out like bond You did too. You're like that, right? Well, I love it. It's too good. It was pretty super. Oh, uh, you're good. You Now that we know Superman is a great ride I think we should head over to Batman next and compare them You know, we mean like a little Superman versus Batman and uh, also I'm wearing my Batman Roosevelt shirt. Take a look at this Pretty fancy. I love this shirt. I actually wore it a couple different videos I've been on a Batman kick recently But if you guys want to shirt it there's a link in the description and a promo code PMM 20 for your first order off Look at this girl. Just want a gigantic Charizard I want a big Charizard. Can you win me a Charizard? Yeah Time to make our way over to Metropolis. I'm so excited to actually come over to this area I mean Superman and Green Lantern was kind of like it's only fun over here. It's it's Metropolis. You know what I mean? We picked a great day to come today. It is empty over here. Look at this. This is Metropolis Hope nothing happened like in Metropolis. That's why nobody's over here. They got cyborg Right there, but it looks like that's closed for the day But everything else like you normally you would see a lot of people here But don't see anything Justice League, Battle for Metropolis The Hall of Justice, but I want to go ride the Dark Knight ride They have a Batman ride and a Dark Knight ride. So they have two Batman rides So as we're walking around Metropolis, I realized there was nothing Superman over here Like nothing in this area. I mean other than like just the Justice League But I cannot see anything Superman until I came across this little Easter egg Look at this just sitting over here in the corner I love it. I wonder if you can actually go in here Or they lock us out they locked us out. How am I gonna change? Let me in I'm also really interested in riding Skull Mountain whatever that was when we saw it up on the Ferris wheel So we're gonna make our way over there next But so far this has been a lot of fun. I'm really loving it. Look at the skull back there That's what I thought about Six Flags Freight Fest. Maybe I should come back up for that Straight ahead you have the Batman ride, which is an outdoor coaster Then you got the Batmobile right here in the center, which is that's pretty awesome And then over here you got the Dark Knight coaster in this big show building. So I'm guessing this is an indoor coaster I think we're gonna do the Dark Knight first Dark Knight first. So we've got to put everything away That's another one indoors. So you can't bring anything on and Yeah, then maybe over to the Batman the Batman From one Batman to the next I'm Batman Batman What was that? I don't know Batman Batman Batman Hey, I think I like the original Batman better than the Dark Knight Opposite of the movies because I like the Dark Knight better than the original Batman. Don't kill me It's just I love the Dark Knight, but as it comes the rides that one that one's got the point But now for the moment we've been waiting for Skull Mountain Look at that Kind of reminds me of Kong I don't even know. I don't know what to expect. Is it a water ride? Is it a roller coaster? What's inside skull mountain? Oh, no, which way to skull mountain? I'm gonna say some skull Okay, well skull mountain was not that terrifying. In fact, I kind of thought I mean, it's just an indoor like coaster The theming is there on the outside. Trust me. The theming is there But inside it's just a roller coaster in the dark. So don't be too afraid. Don't be afraid to ride it I was really expecting something to scare me or bam bam thought there was going to be a lot of skulls No skulls. No skulls Since we're over in this general direction, I think we're actually gonna go to nitro next Nitro looks like an amazing coaster But I'm super excited to go ride the jersey devil, which I seen the sign over here They have a jersey devil coaster and that sounds really amazing But I'm also excited to try nitro. It looks like a pretty big drop there Some of these rides I've noticed they're kind of similar to other rides And I don't know what their release dates are, but it gives you a good comparison Whether or not you have written something like this. So nitro I would definitely compare it to candy monium and mako at sea world and a candy monium at hersey park And then superman like I said manta at sea world, but this actually looks like a little bit more track I don't know. I don't know the specs, but nitro looks like it's a little bit longer than the other ones It's also brought to you by Snickers still can't find the entrance to nitro. Maybe you just need a Snickers I finally did not feel the same that was intense. My beard is like literally puffed up from like the the the the wind I loved it. Now I have to get it back together. I really really love nitro Just the slow steep climb up and then the drop Oh, man, it is exhilarating right there Might be my favorite ride of the day other than king to con king to con that are kind of right there for me But that was amazing It's going to be hard to top nitro, but I have high expectations for the jersey devil Welcome to pine barons home of the jersey devil and this roller coaster is something I've never seen before I've never seen this type of roller coaster Out there. So it's going to be fun. It's like it's kind of like a hybrid for me Seriously, I love the concept of this.  You're going to actually kind of see them go all the way up to look at that Wow This is going to be exciting. I just want to see I want to get a closer look at the devil here Look at that So you sit like one in a row like one one one one one Goodbye I'll never forget you They have a little test seat outside right here and it's very accommodating too This is a big big big test seat. I already went in it and I'm good to go So I think we're going to head on in we're going to go for a ride on the jersey devil Also, it gives you oh, yeah, look over here. They actually give you some jersey devil folklore I can't bring my camera in the queue because they don't allow any cameras in there But I do have the pov footage to show you guys but look at that. It actually tells you Some folklore about the jersey devil. Are you afraid? I would be Just Jersey devil did not disappoint not at all, right? It was really awesome It was it was amazing actually like the way that the ride is And it's so strange because you do find yourself like overturned For most of the ride actually and I liked how it was just one single rail I do have to say you have to be make sure you get yourself in there very comfortable because It was a little pressure if you know what i'm talking about and I loved it though I would probably put it at my number three my number three I would probably go king of con nitro and then the jersey devil the jersey devil Well, it's getting to the point where I think we need to get some din din And they got a nice little brujas here beer fishing chips and wings I'm thinking maybe maybe a little beer maybe a little wings maybe fishing chips It looks like they got chicken wings cauliflower bites chicken strips and then albrecht pretzel I actually might want to get myself a little pretzel a little pretzel and a little power raid A power raid pretzel Does that sound good? I was not expecting a little pretzel braid like this. I mean, I know they said braid but look at that This looks so fun to eat actually and it's soft. It's like almost falling apart like it's bending So we're gonna go in for a bite That's a good pretzel It's almost like a tie It really is a soft delicious pretzel. I wasn't expecting that but I wish I could have got fishing chips, but I think everything's closing soon. So there's not much open I could have went over to the ale house Or a primo's pizzeria We're gonna make our way back over to king to car to see if we can ride it just one more time tonight We only have a couple of minutes, but we're gonna be going through the boardwalk So I want to see if bonbon could try to win me that charizard We were talking about just a quick pit stop and then straight to king king to car Uh, all right, bonnie gotta win me that charizard now. You ready? I hope I caught that all on camera Oh god, I don't know if I caught it bonnie. I don't know if I caught it on camera You did it I can't believe that I cannot believe it Bonnie won me a charizard What? Yeah, look at it. It's still stayed in there Wait, let's see if we can get a picture of you with it bonn point to it. Look at me That is amazing. I can't believe she got it I'm still kind of shocked. I was seriously just joking around like when I said bonn Would you win me a charizard and I can't even believe it happened? I honestly am mind blown. She can keep it. I told her she she didn't have to give it to me She can have whatever she wanted, but man, that is crazy. I can't even believe it Come on bonnie run. We gotta get the king to car We got six minutes six minutes to get there six minutes to get the king to car Bonnie has never won any carnival game. She said and then you win statistically one of the most hardest games to win I can't even get over that. I think we're gonna make it though We successfully made it to go ride king to car one last time and now I'm carrying bonbons backpack Because she has a gigantic charizard Look at her back there Now we got to stop and get my mom a six flags tweedy shirt. She loves tweedy. So there we go. That's the one mom And with that I think we are done here today. What a fun day at six flags seriously. I had a bet like a blast Yeah, and bonnie won a charizard Look, I can't even get over that like it's still kind of just blowing my mind the rides today Like I said, I think king to cars number one for me. Then I would say nitro Then the jersey devil. Yeah, that's your same three. Yeah, yeah, definitely Yeah, it was a lot of fun and the the crowds were low and this park is it's built for thrill Like that's what it is. It is a thrill park ride and it was great I have to say a big thank you to six flags. They actually Invited me out to actually come make this vlog style video So they supplied us with tickets to come into the park But I had the best time ever just being able to ride rides that I've never been able to do it and hang out with my little sis so Much more to come lots more theme parks. We're going to be visiting and I hope you enjoyed the video I enjoyed making it. We'll see you next time Bye We're crossing the Delaware making our way back to pennsylvania country road Take me home to the place I belong pennsylvania Pennsylvania mountain mama Take me home From crossing the Delaware to going through the lehigh tunnel Hold your breath. Does anybody else try to hold their breath in the lehigh tunnel? I love the fact that we're just driving right through a mountain right now. Look at this It's kind of trippy, isn't it? I wonder how many miles?  Breathe, Bonnie, breathe Bonnie's over there holding her breath really. I mean, I'm sure you can't hold your breath, but This is kind of tripping me out. Isn't it? Look at that We're still going right through the mountain almost and We're done


Good morning. I just woke up. Welcome to my productive kind of working from home morning routine Obviously, I've been working from home for a very long time So I want to show you guys what I do to have a nice productive morning routine if you think they've changed obviously with recent events I wake up a little bit later because I've less to do throughout the day this light I've less to do throughout the day. So I wake up a little bit later Normally, I have to be at my work-art class by like 637. I'm not really waking up right now until 645 730 and I've less to do throughout the day So it's just like a little bit more chill, but it still is productive So this is what I do if you guys are starting a morning routine I really recommend you just get a pen and a paper and you write down four things you want to do that morning Just four things you want to implement your routine and you can add more as it goes This is just kind of what I've been doing Comment down below the four things that you guys want to do in your morning routine Love you guys so much and let's get started All right, we're going downstairs All right, well, I'm taking cook outside normally you got a little walk, but it's raining out So now that the queen is done I Can go to my own things right so I changed in to my workout outfit I am not a huge workout from home sort of gal But obviously these are all the options right now.  Um, I have this Nike sports bra. I love Nike sports bras But in fact, you can always get them for like $12 at Norsha rack Lululemon Wonderlanders and then yeah, that's it for my outfit. Um, I'm gonna go work out downstairs Okay, I just got one of those black lululemon yoga mats right now. I'm using this one That was sent to me as a gift like randomly So I just have this little mat Cocoa is eating breakfast I'm going to work out from watching videos on my iPad So I've showed this before when I was in Texas last summer doing workouts But if I am doing it at home workout, I will just look at this YouTube channel It's the owner of hot pilates and she teaches Shannon. She's the best so I am just going to take some Classes basically via video do not underestimate what an at-home workout can do because you will actually be dying after I'm gonna do a new one that she just posted. But anyways, that's a YouTube channel. Get hot with Shannon Yeah, so I'm gonna watch I have lit some candles for a nice atmosphere and vibe in the house So typically during this I'll play a podcast there at the house But currently I think I'm going to listen to surprise surprise. Okay says I do listen to other podcasts Besides the three that I show you just for some reason the days that I film are always days. They have new episodes. So I'm gonna connect this to my Amazon and play There are a billion benefits of celery So I'm not even gonna go into that but just trust me on this guy's seller choose will change your life I'm Lauren it got me hooked normally I will make a ton at a time Which is what I'm gonna do this morning and have them prep to myself and these little Amazon bottles I will have this link to my Amazon shop page this Juicer is honestly really easy to clean and easy to use and it was only like 45 dollars on Amazon you guys recommended it to me So I'll have that link down below and then these bottles are so worth it. They're just the best So I'm going to I normally just make three at a time one bag of celery is one juice So I'll make juice for myself this morning and then juice for myself the next two days I will normally just do it all at once This is not something I do every single morning Just only if I need to make celery juice and this happens to be one of those mornings Okay, so here is one thing of celery I'm gonna put it into a little bottle and then I just sort of the fridge Merch with growing the label all right guys, so this is my green juice in the morning And then I just have these ready it takes legit no time And honestly the longest process is cleaning the juicer which this juicer isn't even about to clean I definitely recommend it, but I drink this before I eat or drink anything for the day Sometimes I'll drink before I got whatever it is, but I'm gonna drink it right now And then I'm gonna go shower and get ready for the day. It seriously is just the best thing ever Okay, so update on the taste everyone. I actually don't even mind it anymore Like I used to think it was so gross and I can just drink it no problem So anyways great great little habit to kind of put in your morning routine. All right, so I got out of the shower I'm gonna use my way leaving conditioner. I've really been liking this. I miss my way Hair oil that was the best thing I've ever used for my hair ever and I left it in LA I got the Olaplex one and it just doesn't do anything comparison. So anyways, I'm gonna brush out my hair I changed in to a comfortable outfit I'm not one of those people who will wear jeans to work from home. Just like not happening I'll just brush it out. I let it air dry as much as possible. I very rarely even dry my hair But if I don't have to put heat on it, I'm for sure not going to so I'm just going to let it air dry this morning To keep it as healthy as possible. I still put on perfume and stuff. Obviously I try to keep it look kind of as normal as possible. I'm someone who wears sweatshirts all the time anyways I think you should definitely get Fully dressed, but I don't think it for me personally doesn't have to be like a full overdone outfit I will do a really quick makeup routine I'm not someone who wears a ton of makeup anyways unless someone's having fun kind of messing off it But I'm going to just put on moisturizer mascara and do my brows and then I always have like a lip balm on That just makes me feel a little bit more awake and more put together. I just got this moisturizer in the mail It's a Charlotte Tilbury moisturizer. What is this called exactly the magic cream? So, I know you guys can't really see me. I really wanted to try this out I try out new products a lot on the day, so I'm staying at home just because if I hate them It's like not going to make it a big deal. Oh my gosh. It's so It feels so good on your skin. My skin is pretty dry right now So this cream is like amazing It has a really really thick consistency But the skin texture on my face is like weird right now And just not super much especially because like tanners dry out your skin And I got an airbrush tan like six days ago and it's coming off now, so it's gonna be very dry There will be some days if I'm filming where I'm gonna put on a lot more makeup, but I'm just editing today So why waste the makeup, you know, okay? I'm also gonna try the Charlotte Tilbury. Oh Great.  All right So my face is so much lighter than my body right now, which is okay And so I just put on that mascara I feel like I would like the mascara more if I curled my eyelashes first Which I did it and then I brush up my brows with brow gel And I put on my favorite lip product, which you guys know is this This is the best thing ever if you guys do anything from this video or buy anything buy this So this is my work from home outfit I don't think it really for me it matters what I wear I feel like maybe when I was younger I tried to actually dress up But and how this is kind of just what I wear every day anyways, so I normally would have swear sweats Something comfy. I'm just not gonna wear jeans in my house Like just absolutely not happening. The main thing though is like do not wear your pajamas Like whatever you do do not wear what you slept in you need to shower Get ready in the morning and then kind of like it's like a new day. You know what I mean? Anyways, I'm this shirt is from boohoo. These sweats are a talentless and then I am wearing just like my normal jewelry I also typically wear slippers.  I love ugly slippers But I'm kind of over my gray ones because I've worn them every day for I got them last summer So for a while my new slippers come next week, which these are the things I get excited about guys I have not finished my office yet that furniture comes next week So I've just been working here which has worked for the time being it has been totally fine Like working at your kitchen table really works. Honestly, even with an office. I work at my kitchen table so often if you can Just whatever you do don't work from your bed. That's the biggest thing try not to even work from a couch I still do that a lot or I have really since been into this house and not having my office set up But yeah, obviously not home offices like so Not necessary But the other thing is to just make sure that your house has a very Nice welcoming vibe like a place that you want to be in it's not depressing and awful You know because you're stuck inside doing work and you don't want to she's not what you want So I have a lot of candle let's lit. I always play like Nora Jones or Frank Sinatra play a lot of jazz I'll just place things that kind of make me happy. So I start off my day on a good foot So as you guys can see the house is like cleaned and ready I have my juicer stuff out here drying, but I made that like 20 minutes ago. So this is when I make coffee I'm really it's starting to get tired. So Have this ready All right, so my coffee is almost done.  Yeah, but this is like the most filling and I just really love this on days that I have a little more time Not for the six a long time, but normally my breakfast are either pre-made or take like one second Guys I made my breakfast and while I eat my breakfast I typically do my morning diva Reading sometimes this is 15 minutes. I'm husband's an hour and a half. It just depends on The day, but I've been reading at New Morning Mercy's as you guys know There's nothing new. So this is just kind of my routine for doing this Okay, so I'm now at my kitchen table ready to work It's 10 and I'm going to edit I think like five or six videos today So I hope you guys enjoyed this morning routine and I hope you found these tips helpful in times especially Especially in the current landscape of our world I think routines are really important because it just kind of keeps like one thing normal So I am going to oh my gosh guys, you know, we should do a brilliant idea guys. I have a great idea I am posting a photo set of my like work from home morning routine And I want to see all of your morning routines So if you guys watch this video post like a cute little work from home morning routine thing You guys will see on my Instagram with all the photos that I'm posting and then tag me so I can see your morning Routines I love you guys so much as always. I feel like I have to do this in every video I know this is such a hard time for people and I love you guys and I think as a community We really need to kind of band together if there's any way that Anyone could be of any service or any help to you I think like reach out just like let's talk in the groups and just keep it kind of like we can keep it confidential in the groups But yeah, I think as a community we're here to help each other and I love you guys so much Hope you guys enjoyed this productive morning routine But I hope you guys have the best day ever and feel very productive and like you have a great workspace like some candles play some music I have loops normally on my TV I'll put on like a buffalo worship loop or something like that But love you guys and I'll talk to you soon. Bye


All right guys, welcome back to the channel. If you're new, my name is Bobby. Guys, I am back in Germany. Guten Tag! Schönen guten Tag Welt aus Deutschland. Yes, I haven't been here in five years and now I'm walking around in this beautiful German forest. It is a surreal experience if you haven't been here for such a long time. Anyways guys, this video is not about Germany. This video is not about Deutschland. This video is about Vegana or in other words, Richard, vegan gains. Vegana stains, vegana paints, whatever you might want to call it. Richard did a video about me and it took him four hours, right, to rant about me. Of course, I don't have the time to watch it. Guys, let's be honest. Who in his right mind has four hours to sit down and listen to Richard? Me personally, nope, not so much. I am busy traveling the world. Yesterday in France, today in Germany, three days ago on a dairy farm. I'm in field researching what is truly going on in food production.  All theory, no real-life experience. Anyways, I tuned in and I watched the first five minutes and all I want to respond to in this video is the conversation via messenger that me and Vegana had. Richard just shows you one part of the conversation where he challenges me to a debate. Sure. Let me browse through and show you guys what is truly going on here. I told him that it takes me at least two weeks because I have to leave Thailand and I have to go to Europe. So he says anytime this week, I'm free for a debate. I don't really care what channel hosts that debate. Either way, I'm going to stream it on my channel. Fair enough. He continues and says I'm not dealing with Bart Kay though. He has doxed multiple people now including Dr. Ricky and Michelle Loh and possibly Goji man. I don't need him or his retarded followers finding out where I live and swatting me, which has already happened to us.   You like to make all of those claims. Let's have an MMA match and whatnot.  If you make claims on the internet, you have to back it up. It's that simple. So why are you scared to talk to Bart Kay? I mean needless to say it is not about him ambushing you or sending fans to you. It is because you are scared to talk to somebody that actually has the scientific backup. It's that simple. You like to quote studies, but when it comes down to a real discussion with a scientist, you are posting out. It's that simple, man. You want to talk to people that can't battle you in listing studies. That is all you're good at. You have no real life experience. Anyways, let me go through the messages. I told him, absolutely. The internet is pretty solid. Tomorrow I have John Venus on. I'll get back to you when I have the time. Looking forward to it. Looking forward to it, Vigana. He answers, so it has been a few days and you still haven't given me an answer. Weird how you set up a debate with John Venus and have had other live streams, but you can't find time. You can't find some time to set up a debate with me. Okay, so as you just saw, I told him I'm talking to John Venus first, right? And then when I have the time, I get back to you. When I have the time, I get back to you. He continues, if you're too afraid of debating me because you know you lose, then just tell me you're not interested in debating. Drew Morgan also admitted that he doesn't want to debate me because he knows he would lose. But I guess you don't have enough honesty to admit it. So first and foremost, me and Drew, good friends. Drew never talked to you in person. Drew never talked to you.  I respond with, what the fuck, dude?     Why do you keep on pushing and insisting? You are heartbroken, vegana. You are heartbroken, Ricarda.    You are the anti-natalist scum, the manifestation of the issue that we are having here. Self-sterilized anti-natalist. Do you really think that I have an interest in chatting with you over a good guy such as John Venus? Of course, I rather chat with him. I told you already, it is not about winning a debate for me. I am for truth, but you will discard that as anecdotal evidence because you trust a Dr. Greger with the arms size less than a nine-year-old girl over your own experience. Clearly, veganism is failing you. Nevertheless, let me keep on going.  Like I said, if you don't want to debate, just say so.   Who in his right mind writes another man like this? I told you, I will get back to you. I told you, I will talk to you when I have the time.   You're hoping Bobby will talk to you. You're hoping you can connect to Bobby. And let's be honest here, man, I actually liked you back in the day. And you blew the chance. We could have been friends, but you've been too pushy. So, hence I respond, you sound like my jealous ex-girlfriend. As I said, when I have the time for your debate, I let you know if you can't wait, that is cool, too. That is our exchange, and that is what Richard doesn't want you to see. After that, obviously, he didn't respond anymore. After that, he did a four hour, Jesus Christ, a four hour live stream about me and shared his obsession with his viewers.  Richard, you are everything what is wrong with our society.     A person that values scientific evidence over himself. A person with no real life experience.  Life will tell me what is right and what is wrong. Will be jealous of me. Of course you will be. A person that wanted to be my girlfriend so bad and failed. All right, guys, and that's it for today's video. Now I have to move on. I have to get back to my girlfriend, to my family members. Actually experience life. Have fun, connect with people and with animals, right? See what is truly possible outside in nature. Actually, have fun in life. It's very, very sad, man. Anyways, Richard, I wish you all the best.


Everybody forced here rip in 2022 diamond Kings baseball hobby six bucks number 21 random team style There are the results you can always find them at late in sports cards calm. Thanks everybody for grabbing spots. Good luck Oh, you know what happened in sports today like early like years ago that I completely forgot about but it was really weird My Chris sale got suspended by the white socks for cutting up their Yeah, that was weird. Yeah Remember that like that was a really weird headline. I remember being like what why like someone must though He was trying hard to get traded. I don't know What a day What a day in history. Yeah Cormac auto Lopez.  I I live 20 minutes Why I just do not want to hang out with you guys Chase Sunday Mingus do old Jersey Yankees It's like, yeah, I actually you don't have to pay for the flight. I just honestly do not want Rash Knair Adolas Garcia Kevin Smith keep in mind guys this year's national promo goes two weeks. It goes until August 9th Any break with the title national break until August 9th? I think it would be most it should be most of them. I would think if not all of them great frame Brandon Marsh angels rookie Will be eligible. So just keep that in mind that is not just the breaks that happen at the national In fact, the first night of national breaks is literally at the shop It's Tuesday. We won't be at the net. We will be setting up at the national that that's current time jewel Jersey out of Marlins rookie Brian de la Cruz Has I hope it's somebody that wants it, you know wants to come hang out with us So I could be a guest breaker. Yeah. Yeah. All right guys. I gotta let the guy who won break now I'm like, so you hit record Dude how funny would that be are we allowed to join national I think that would be a weird thing that'd be a weird move. I don't want to like take away from somebody else's Plum frame Joe Cronin Red Sox, but nobody told us we couldn't I know I'd like rather I don't want to join the national break specifically for the reason because I want somebody to win Yeah, I want someone to have a chance at it, you know, yeah great frame bottle for the Reds our pooholes I live here. I live at the shop. So, you know, what am I gonna? Hang out with you people on my days People Also, if anybody is gonna wear like Yankees stuff or like something like that here, I'm not teaching you how to break That's encouraged actually you can figure it out. I will come in on my day off She's got a break just a spite for us if you want to do don't mess up or I'll yell at you Stan Musial to 99 Cardinals elegance Actually, we'll probably make you where else is something like here's your swag gift stuff We should make late in sports cards basketball jerseys That'd be so sweet, you know, honestly, we should do and Sarah was talking about this like each of us getting custom jerseys Dude, that's an amazing idea. That's like another level of what I just said. That's amazing. I know Cruz Ozzy I'll be Jersey Kings a green Albie's that must be from like a I Can't think of anything. You'd have to be like a spring training. Yeah, I train in St. Patrick's Day pretty cool Judge and cousins You got a flat tire from a literal fork I'm laughing but not in like a that's funny. That's just like kind of unbelievable Sorry, man It's pretty intimidating at first actually It's very scary first People don't want the prize now Campanella Grave frame Dodgers to be fair if you win and you're like a guest breaker. There's like zero expectations. Oh, yeah Like when I first started I'm like, dude, everyone's gonna hate me because I'm new And everyone's like smooth this guy. Yeah, Josh Lowe dual Jersey auto rays. It's more intimidating when you're a new employee for sure I can get into you. Oh, yeah. Yeah, if you're guest breaking. It's like, hey, this is the guest breaker like yeah Everyone's like, oh, yeah, yeah, it's cool. Like when Blake was here. Oh, yeah, sweet place here Which does take some of the pressure off the breaker because then you have something else to We're just not stuck with talking about pop tarts.  Yeah, got Eddie Murray plum frame for the Orioles Second is one spot in every almanac for a calendar year. Wow So one spot per run, which I'm sure we'll have some ultra high-end we'll have some or have a bunch of stuff I don't know if it counts towards the Well, I try to say gaming side I don't think it does it's just a sports side because gaming's gonna have its own promo. I don't know if it's up yet Great frame story for the Rockies Also guys. Yeah, if you haven't heard that yet, I'm not sure if it's up. I kind of tuned out yesterday like Everything other than just chilling There will be a late gaming promo this year as well. Is this the first national late gaming has been around? Last year we got it set up right when we got back pretty much So make sure you check that out too. If you guys like the TCG side as well Plum frame Curtis Terry, I'm gonna join all the breaks on that side Dude I came in yesterday Great frame Corey see your Rangers. I came in yesterday That's my dad. I came up like an hour hour and a half two hours or whatever me and Brad were kind of going over the You know the ins and outs of the the laptop and the streaming set that we're taking with us and Lane comes in he's like, hey, can you guys record this video to show off like?  It was it only took like a minute and a half I Should I should have clocked in for a minute and a half. I probably should have clocked in when I was here anyway Technically I was working I should probably do that after the fact so we don't get in any labor trouble here because I just said that on the stream Terry and Yippe's Alec Bohm Philly's game use jersey card shops gonna get audited to me Fridl and Detmer's Gehrig's Siri What do you mean Shane? For the national no, you just join breaks that say the national break on you don't have to be physically in person here guys Here is the you know, not ten bucks Tuesday. Where is it? Here click on this link and then you can just read all the info You may not want to purchase it because it doesn't help you do anything If you have a hundred million dollars, probably don't buy that gray frame Eli Morgan Sam bought it. I did. Yeah, I still am not gonna win the top rise It literally doesn't get if you give you a spot in anything. Yeah, Krause and McCormick Kevin Smith dual Jersey Auto Blue Jays Someone on Friday asked and chat if they had to buy it. I was like, no I was like in fact, don't O'Neill cruise Since I'm such a dedicated employee, I bought it $1,000,000,000, nothing Coarn auto Freeman Baz Yeah, it explains it all there You just literally join breaks that say national break in the title There's even a tab on top of the website that says national breaks. We'll have them all there I think it's gonna end up being everything we break from Tuesday This coming Tuesday to August 9th, which would be two weeks later I think it's gonna be end up being every single break, but Yeah, and you can win more than once therefore you can join more than once every spot purchased in one of those breaks Is one spot the final random some of the breaks are worth more than one spot in the final random Like there's like a triple case definitive that I think is worth three spots Three cases of a high-end product. So some of them like two spots So make sure you read the break descriptions guys all the info is there. You just got to read it It's pretty straightforward once you do Gonzales Cedric Mullins out of 99 artist proof Orioles The other prize is one spot the Super Bowl mixer, which last year would have been would have been worth a 14 and a half k All the top five prizes are pretty Pretty close in value. I would say they're just a little bit different and also you can't trade prizes or switch There's stipulations for certain things like if you're if you win the grand prize And you can't make it for whatever reason you still get the shopping spree and all that Get to tea stool Jersey card Padres Judging and trara's Ten percent of one break once a week. Yeah, that adds up Plum frame twinge Joe Ryan rookie So what would hulu Roger you guys have to do to not win American League rookie the year I feel like he could miss the rest of the year and probably win it still Gray frame co-fax for the Dodgers Yeah, be really tough for him. He would have to literally play in games and get zero hits play the rest Through Han Cabrera This is the year Kemper. I remember guys since we're doing it for two weeks One spot gives you less odds and it has in the past if that makes sense because there's gonna be a lot more breaks For the promo So in a way it opens it up for more people because it won't all be a bunch of high-end stuff like last year's national breaks You know, it was a lot of high-end Not a lot of like lower budget breaks, but this year. I think it's gonna be Good for everybody. I think break breaks are gonna feel quick to you guys Breaks are gonna feel quick. I think a lot of them a lot of the Non-high-end is already full for the days that are listed at the national Which is not surprising Little bit everything Cormac auto Lopez. So yeah guys the Jeter Stadium club edition Releases I think it's out Tuesday. I think it actually releases Tuesday Two of those break Tuesday guys super high-end yet 2022 top stadium club members only Derek Jeter Baseball basically it's just a bunch of high-end Jeter stuff Gray frame you want to don't that's only 40 cases made We're doing to Tuesday and one Wednesday live from the national check those out O'Neal Cruz Riley Adams dual relic rookie Otto Nats to 99. Oh The Chinese New Year revolutions. Yeah, I didn't know they're coming out this year I'm sure we do but dude, I love the Chinese New Year's Revival. I didn't know that was coming out soon I had pieces of revolution was so long ago. Yeah, I know honestly, but I feel like we would have had I don't know I don't there's so many releases. I can't keep tracking now. I just do what's put in front of me essentially That's awesome, man Yeah, it's here once a fun release to you guys check that out for Wednesday Those will be the first breaks we do from Atlantic City the auto Lopez Tyler McGill Castellanos a cookie And I think the first one in front of crowds at the national like people to national is Triple definitive case Because we start Wednesday day, but the show doesn't start for VIPs until that night that evening Burns and Strider They so it's not only level-one wonders It's just whatever the player level is that's the only one they have So there's not like a Strider level three or one. It's all you know is what it is strange I I honestly do not know why 20 Gwynne so like Jake Berger that level three. He won't be a one or two Plum frame Keller for the Giants, I believe It looks really old for New York, and I think that would be Giants Double check that a second. What's his name George Keller? Yeah. No, Charlie. Charlie Oh, no Yankees, I guess I would be orange on the car Yeah, Yankees Charlie Keller He was part of some of the best teams in Yankees history. He was part of the 27 team was he no idea No, he wasn't he was born 1916 He was with the team in like the 50s Well, Charlie Keller you guys Gabby Hartnett gray frame Wander yeah, it is a little weird. I was honestly surprised It was just different rookies this year because I know in 2020 the year before in all the years before that They're all the rookies were the same muse you'll enjoy Ryan Follow me, I'm fancy.  I'm gonna have to do laundry a good amount of laundry tomorrow.  They'd call me the master of all trolls. I did that. That's the one thing about the nationals Everybody's just filming everything everywhere There's like literal camera crews just walking around too I went to a show in New Jersey one of the bigger shows I went to there's people filming like there is like a dealer with his wife and his wife is filming the entire deal That means I'm like I was like looking at it and I'm like in my head. I'm like, can you just not like I Mean if you tell someone to stop they have to yeah Conor Wong actually, I don't know if they're on a show floor. I don't know Got plum frame red Johnny Bench Anybody films me the national be so upset. I'm on camera at all I Gray frame Hank Greenberg Tigers Where are you in the draft for I mean that kind of that's that's a big thing I'm gonna bunch I'm gonna wait too many best ball drafts right now. I can't keep up Yeah, they're all they're all long draft though. So yeah, so 99 Jacob de Gras Mets artist proof It's like if some of the pops up now, I'll literally just make it when we're done street or what I'm done Just I a gray Chris Terry belly and Bowman I want to do that I usually like to do that to preseason though being a commissioner Bat Kings bat relic you are done Alvarez gonna see him come back. I know you didn't want to see it on Friday But as far as the game itself, I like you a lot Cormac auto Lopez My switch over to auto not on a focus on this gray frame Jose Siri Mets or Astros. Sorry astros gray frame rookie Yeah, I mean you think he's not the worst option to have but he's he's more like a decent second tight end to grab And you'll cruise Kevin Smith dual relic auto to 99 Justin Jefferson Tyrae from DK. I love that. I mean Justin Jefferson gives you a really nice base to like The other guys, you know might not have to do a ton To keep you in it every week Wonder Franco, I got first pick and one of them one of the draft one of the best ball I do when I was like, I guess I'll just take Jonathan Taylor like I don't like first pick this year I just hate the Weight on snake drafts Reynolds seager McCarthy I much prefer auction drafts, but it's too tough to do auction with best ball. I guess Yeah, I don't think would make sense. It would be way too long too much too much time focused on a best ball You know Relics you're done Shohei Tatis Alec bone Ozzy albies Jason Dominguez autos now Kevin Smith Luke Williams Raleigh Adams Kevin Smith again Josh Lowe and Brian de la Cruz That will do it. We've got some more baseball coming up. Thanks everybody


Y cwestiwn yw y maen nhw'n 6063.3 yn y ddondol Cameron, sy'n 6063 yn y ddondol Angus Robertson, yn y sgolwng ymgyrchu, yn gweithio'r cymrydau, ymgyrch, ymgyrch, ymgyrch, ymgyrch, ymgyrch, ymgyrch, a'r ddondol yma yn ddiddordeb am gael. Ymgyrch ymgyrch yn gweithio. The result of the vote on amendment number 6063.3, in the name of Donald Cameron, is yes, 31, no, 77. There were no abstentions, the amendment is therefore not agreed. And the next question is that amendment 6063.2, in the name of Daniel Johnson, which seeks to amend motion 6063 in the name of Angus Robertson, on Scotland's population, meeting the needs of our community's economy and public services, be agreed? Are we all agreed? No, the Parliament is not agreed, therefore we'll move to a vote. Members should cast their votes now. The vote is closed. The result of the vote on amendment number 6063.2, in the name of Daniel Johnson, is yes, 41, no, 67. There were no abstentions, the amendment is therefore not agreed. And the final question is that motion 6063, in the name of Angus Robertson, on Scotland's population, meeting the needs of our community's economy and public services, be agreed? Are we all agreed? No, the Parliament is not agreed, therefore we'll move to a vote, and members should cast their votes now. The vote is closed. The result of the vote on motion 6063, in the name of Angus Robertson, is yes, 79, no, 29. There were no abstentions, the motion is therefore agreed. That concludes decision time. We'll now move on to members' business.


Thank you, Thierry, for the very kind words and for the invitation. This is always a difficult exercise to compete with the food, but I shall try. Let me start with two caveats. The first one is in my previous job at the IMF. I had 200 people feeding me daily information about the world. What happens when you leave the fund is that you find yourself to be a team of one and you have to do the work yourself. You cannot replicate what the 200 extremely competent people did for you. This implies that these are humble remarks. There are more remarks. I have no pretense in knowing everything which happens around the world and it may well be that when you ask questions I may say that I just don't know. The second remark, the second caveat, is something that echoes what Thierry just said which is that I was tasked with thinking about what happens over the next two, three years maybe. In a way, the excitement is really in the medium term, the long term. These evolutions that we've talked about, from inequality to populism and so on, they have implications for what happens now and soon but clearly the big issue is where do we end and this is what was taken on this morning in the various sessions and I'm going to avoid talking about these things and just focus on the next two or three years. Now, the question is how should we think about where we are and as people have said this morning, these are very strange times. These are indeed schizophrenic times. So on the one hand, if you look at the real economy and by the real economy, I mean output, inflation, things are basically as good as they get. You have to go back very far in history to actually find a situation in which the economy, the purely economic situation is as impressive, as benign as it is today. I think that's an important point because in the general climate of pessimism, these facts are often just swept under the rug but the reality is that at the same time, if you turn to the politics and the geopolitics which were discussed at much length this morning, I was going to say things are as bad as they get but it would be much too optimistic. I think they can get much worse than where we are. And so you have this tension between the two as an economist. You see the world as it is now as being in fairly good shape and obviously elaborate on that and then you see the geopolitics and the politics being terrible. And I think the big challenge for an economist is actually to think about how these political and geopolitical risks can translate into economics in the relatively short run. Again, there are larger issues thinking further out. So what I want to do is first talk about the real economy, where we are today, then talk about what I see as the economic risks. So by economic risks, I mean leaving aside the geopolitical risks and then come to the list of political and geopolitical risks and think about how they may affect things sooner rather than later. So let me do that. So let me start with where we are. So the economy today. Now again, if you're in that business, you know that the economy has, the world economy has slightly slowed down in the last three to six months, not by much but enough to make some people worry. So I'm not at that high frequency. I'm just thinking about where we are in terms of this year and next year. And there the numbers are very impressive. I mean if you go around the world, the U.S. has the best macro economy at this stage in a very long time. As you know, unemployment, we didn't know when the recovery was taking place how much, how far we could take unemployment down before we saw signs of inflation. Some people said six, some people said five. We're now at 3.7 and there is very little indication. We're probably fairly close to where we should stop but that's an incredibly good news. An economy at 3.7% unemployment is an economy in which anybody can find a job easily and you have to think in terms of that. And then in terms of inflation, so far so good. We haven't quite reached the target inflation of 2%. We're very close. So from that point of view, things are good. The last thing is if you... So sometimes recoveries are very unhealthy. You have the housing sector kind of ahead of every other sector and then you know it's going to turn bad at some point. Here it's not the case. It is one of the most balanced recoveries that we have had in the history of the U.S. All the sectors have basically gone at the right rate, the consumption, the investment, the housing investment. So again, it doesn't have... It doesn't pretend its own downside fate. There is no sector which is clearly out of sync and on the verge of collapsing. So clearly this is where the news is best. But if you look at Europe, it is also good news. So again, the growth has slowed down a little bit in the last three months. But if you look, it is now a part of the world which is recovering. Again here, the difference with the U.S. is that they are not at full employment. I mean, it's clear that there is some way to go. And there the news is I take the news to come from Germany in which, as you know, in Germany the unemployment rate is nearly as low as it is now in the U.S. And again, this was unexpected. We thought we would see inflation in Germany earlier. Now people who want more inflation are disappointed. But people like me who like low unemployment are quite happy. I think there is a larger lesson here which is for reasons which we may not like. Namely that labor is weaker and bargaining. The what economists call the equilibrium rate of unemployment, of the natural rate of unemployment, which is a terrible word, is lower. We see this in the U.S. We see this in Germany. And so I think the good news is that there is still some way to go before we have to kind of put on the brakes and try to slow down the machine. So my sense is unexpected value. As always, something can happen. But I can see how Europe can continue to recover for a number of years with accommodating monetary policy and accommodating fiscal policy. One remark on this is that, again, how recoveries go depend very much on the central bank. Sometimes the central bank gets scared and then tightens maybe too early. I think the good news is that the ECB, at least under current management, is actually quite convinced that there is a way to go so that interest rates will remain low for a while and allow the economy to keep recovering. So again, not everything is perfect. I've not mentioned Italy, but I come back to it in my risk section. But in general, if you look at Europe as a whole, the eurozone, things are better than they have been in a long time. Going outside, again, I'm not going to give you a 15 regions description, but I'm just going to mention two, China. So what is clear is that, and again, I'm talking to a room in which there are probably people who know much more about China than I do, but this is what I understand from my discussions and my readings. China has slowed down. It's now going to set 7%. Now the official number is 6.5%. I think there's a chance it goes a bit more slowly for the reasons which we have discussed this morning. But what we can see is that they're already measures taken by the Chinese government to basically push spending up either through tax reductions or more lending to small and medium-sized enterprises. So my sense is that there's a commitment on the part of China to actually maintain growth. I'd be very surprised if the growth numbers were terrible in China. It might be a bit lower, but nothing bad. Now again, this may create the seeds of something worse later, which is that as we all know there has been too much credit growth in China and they were kind of trying to take care of it. I think they are going to be a bit more relaxed about doing it. The plan makes sense, but there's a bit of a risk. But again, in the next one or two years, I don't see any catastrophe. Finally, emerging markets. So here again, there are some horror stories, not horror stories, but some countries which are doing poorly. South Africa, for example, is clearly not in good shape. Turkey is fighting a crisis. But in general, if you look at emerging market countries, despite the negative talk, they are growing at the same rate as they were last year, this year and in forecast next year, which is about 4.7% according to the IMF. So you don't see, again, you see specific problems in specific places, but again, it looks as if we are not on the verge of a major slowdown in emerging markets. So let me now turn to the risks that, again, leaving aside the geopolitical and the political risks. What are the risks which are inherent built in the system? So there's one line which is, well, the expansion in the U.S. has been going on for so long that it has to stop, because they just don't go on forever. It's absolutely true that they don't go on forever. Every year there's a chance that something derails it. But we have very strong evidence that there is no aging effect, which would be good news for people in this room and for me, but basically the probability that there is a recession this year doesn't seem in any way related to the number of years of expansion before. So expansions basically do not die of old age. It's difficult for us to accept, I think, as human beings and knowing that that's not the case for us, but it really looks like this. It could have been otherwise, but the evidence is very strong. So the fact that the U.S. expansion has been that long is probably not a reason to worry. There's another general line of thought for those who like to worry, and there are many, which is the so-called Minsky cycle. So many of you may know about Hyman Minsky. He was considered the complete heterodox for a very long time, but it turned out to be quite on the dart in the financial crisis. He was long dead. But his idea is that we have these credit cycles. If you come in as well for a long time, risk built, and then eventually it leads to a crash. And he had a nearly mechanical view of it, which is you can avoid it. It's just you're going to face credit cycles and they are going to come and go. So some people have said, well, maybe this is what's happening, a very long expansion. Credit is in worse shape than it was, and we're ready for a crash. I think when you look at the evidence, I have nothing against the Minsky cycles. I think they are sometimes relevant. I think sometimes you see a bubble and then you know that eventually there'll be a crash. But in the case of the U.S. or the European economies, I just don't see it. So let me just talk about a number of things that I mentioned. So one thing which is mentioned is the levels of debt. And that came up this morning, and it's true that if you look at debt to GDP, which is private debt from firms, from households, from governments, has gone up a lot. Is this reason to worry? It's reason for looking at the numbers, but not necessarily to worry. How dangerous that is depends on various things. It depends on who is the data. And it's much less of an issue when it's the state than when it is private individuals or firms because the state can mobilize taxes much more easily than we can mobilize funds. And then the ratios which actually matter from a conceptual and empirical point of view are debt to assets or debt service to GDP. Namely, you compare stock to stock or flow to flow. And if you do this, you're much less scared. Basically debt to assets has come down, not up. And debt service is relatively low by historical standards. Now, why is it low? Because interest rates are low. So you may say where interest rates will probably increase, which they will. But even if they increase by 100 or 200 basis points, debt service remains perfectly tractable and historically in line. So I just don't see any particular reason to worry, to give you examples. U.S. households have steadily deleveraged, deleveraged means the decrease in the proportion of debt in their portfolio since 2010. U.S. firms, because they have very large cash flows, have also basically been able to reduce their leverage in general. So this really doesn't worry me. Now, doesn't stop there. People say, well, you're not looking at the right things. The risk spreads are very low. So some of them are indeed low. The ones which were engineered to be low, namely the ones which were engineered by the central banks to decrease the price of long maturity assets are low. That's intentional. That's not a catastrophe. But if you look at assets which are not subject to that, you see that, for example, the credit spreads in general are not unusually low. They are low. They are in the 20% range historically. But again, nothing terribly worrisome. If you look at the stock markets, let me leave aside the last two weeks and come back to it quickly. If you look at the risk premium implied by the prices as they were, say the beginning of the year, where they are now, the so-called equity premium, the risk premium, is actually perfectly in line with history. In other words, seeing this is that given the fact that the risk rates are so low, the fact that the prices of stocks is very high is not a surprise. And when you can't get money, you can't get return from bonds, you go into equity and you pay more. So there, I think that there is nothing terrible about it. Are there pockets where we see risks? Yes, there are nearly always. I mentioned two. One is actually good news. It's cryptocurrencies. I mean, cryptocurrencies is nearly entirely bubbly based on fundamental values of zero. And most of them will go there very quickly. It's quite good because it really, at this stage, is not linked to the financial system. So it's like people playing a lottery. They may get poor. They may lose money. But it's not going to affect the financial system directly. If they were there in 10 years and they were much bigger, it might. But right now it's not. The other I'll just mention is the so-called CLO collateralized loan obligation market, which clearly has gone a bit too far. There is an interesting issue, which is an issue of securitization. So a lot of people came out of a crisis thinking securitization is a catastrophe. Securitization, as it was done, was a catastrophe. But securitization on its own is a good thing. It pulls risks. And if it's done right, it helps. So on the CLOs, I'm not sure where we are. Bottom line, I really cannot get scared. Something can happen. Something will happen. But again, it's not baked in. As always, we have to be very careful about what happened. Let me talk briefly about, even that that may be on the mind of some people and the stock market adjustments. Yeah, I just ended with a teaser, which is my interpretation of what has happened in the stock markets in the last two weeks. So now, I don't know, the US, it's not open yet. But basically, as of not yesterday, the day before, the standard and poor had decreased by roughly 10%. And this was in the rest of the world was between five and 10, some countries more. And the question, when this happens, you always have people say, well, this is the beginning of the end. And now it's going to crash. And then people say, no, by now, because it's going to go up. I'm not going to give you my predictions, which I don't have, but I'm going to give you my interpretation. So I think there are two hypotheses for what may have triggered the crash. The first one is the anticipation that the strength of the US economy is such that the Fed will not be able to slow it down. It is now going at about 1% above potential. And so the job of the Fed is to basically slow the economy down so that we don't get too low an unemployment rate, which would become an issue. And I think there's a number of people who think that that might be an issue. So what you saw is when the Fed actually indicated that the economy was very strong, interest rates, long rates went up, the stock market went down. And so the beginning of the decrease in prices, I think, was the realization that markets now had to expect higher longer rates. When you have higher longer rates, you have the bond markets doing badly and the stock markets doing badly. In the last week, this has not been the case. And there has been days on which both the stock market was coming down and the bond yields were coming down, which is inconsistent with that kind of story. And I think this reflects the notion that maybe the economy is slowing down, maybe it reflects the uncertainty about geopolitics, but it is a different type of animal. In general, my impression is that the stock market was more or less correctly valued as of the beginning of the year. And that there has not been a whole set of good news since then, not bad news, not good news. So at this stage, and again, I know the risk you take when you say things like this, I think this may well be a healthy adjustment rather than the beginning of the end. But, you know, as always, sometimes one is proven wrong. So let me turn to one more point about economic risks. So what I've said, I don't think that there is a lot of risk buildup which has to lead to catastrophes. I don't think the expansion will die of its own. However, I think one main risk it has been discussed, which is that it relates to what I just said, which is that the US economy is now doing very well and is going in a very strong way. The Fed thinks that it can slow it down so that unemployment doesn't go below, say, 3.5 and can do this with the current set of expected raises in rates. I think there is a very good chance that they find they actually have a much harder time using the brakes to slow down the machine. Maybe they're right, and if there was another 10 or 20% decrease in the stock market, this would probably decrease demand and do the job for them. But I think there's a genuine chance that markets are too optimistic about how low the yield curve is and that it may tilt up a lot. If it does, then anybody who is long is going to lose money. And emerging markets in particular may have a hard time to the extent that they have dollar debt, and some of them do. I don't see this as an enormous risk. I think that even if this happened, most players couldn't handle it. But that would be in the set of economic factors risks. This would be my number one. In the last maybe five minutes, turn to politics and geopolitics. So again, here you need expertise in many fields, which is there in the room, but I don't have one. And so I may say things which are not right. The first one is on the rise of populism, and that's clearly an incredibly scary trend, which will most likely continue. The question is, again, what about the short one? And here there's an interesting thing, which is populism has happened before. It used to be the rule in Latin America for a long time. And the populists basically promised everything to everybody, and still do that, and then tried to deliver by being totally fiscally irresponsible. And so what would happen is that they would have very large budget deficits, and that would lead to inflation, hyperinflation. And they would typically lose, because when inflation was very high, people became unhappy. We're seeing something quite different, maybe with the exception of the US. But if I look at Europe, if I look at the two populists I can think of, which are, you know, Hungary and Poland. In both cases, it's clearly populism, but it's very fiscally responsible. So we have a different type of populism, which is not more pleasant. Good. This one as well? Good. But it is from an economic point of view less dangerous. I just don't see Hungary doing anything crazy in terms of macro, which would lead to enormous problems. Again, I'll come back to Italy. So trade wars, trade wars, I've really discussed trade this morning, and it's clear that it's disrupting the life of many firms and some of the speakers. As we got very concrete examples of what it can do. The problem we have as economists is that the mechanical effects of trade wars of the size that seems to be developing is not very, very large. We cannot get a big world recession from the mechanical effects of trade. And we have a sense that we're losing something, but it's our fault, not that the world is really very good. One way in which we actually get bigger effects is when the discussion about trade creates uncertainty about what the tariffs will be in that country, in that part of the world, what the rules will be. Because in this case what you get is you get an effect on investment. You basically get what's known as the option value of waiting, which is you basically put the number of plans on hold because you don't know where it's going to go. You don't know where the tariff is going to be here or there, and if you build the plans you'd rather wait until you know. And so I think that's the channel through which trade wars can have very large effects in the short run. They have large effects in the long run, they affect growth, they affect productivity, but in the short run I think that's the effect. So there was an interesting simulation at the IMF, which is in the last World Economic Report, in which they tried to look at different degrees of trade wars and the effect on activity. So the first one was basically the tariffs as now presented by the Trump administration. So serious tariffs on China and serious tariffs on some goods imported in the U.S. Then various additional levels, the fourth level was the effect on investment and confidence, and the fifth was on the financial sector. I'm going to give you the numbers because it gives you a sense of where the economy is, which is if you just look at the mechanical effects of the trade wars, then the decrease in US GDP was 0.1%. So not nothing, obviously, but not enormous. The effect on China was minus 0.4%. Again, not nothing, but not the end of the world. If, however, you added all the additional elements, the psychological elements, the layer of investment and so on, then you got nearly 1% less for the US and 1.6% less for China. So a lot of the issue is going to depend not so much on the trade part but on the uncertainty part and how it affects investment. What we have to really watch out for is investment. Okay, let me end with specific issues about specific countries briefly. So Italy actually came this morning with a piece on Italy and I'll just say what it said. I think there is a fundamental incompatibility between the fiscally irresponsible populist government and the euro. It just cannot work. If such a government basically decides to embark on a fiscal expansion which looks dangerous, then it is going to face what was known in Latin America as a sudden stop. So both the domestic investors and the foreign investors are going to try to take as much of their money out as they can. If they think there is the slightest possibility that we get out of the euro, they will move enormous amounts. Why does it matter? Because within the euro, the size of the gross liabilities of a country like Italy is absolutely gigantic. It is far beyond what anybody could replace if these liabilities got out. The ECB cannot do it, the SM cannot do it, the IMF cannot do it. And so as soon as the investors become convinced that it's better to put your money somewhere else, there is nothing which can be done except declare bank holiday to limit the... And then reopen on the Monday with the lira or whatever currency it is that you want to have but outside of the euro. I'm not saying that the Italian government wants to do it. I think they really don't want to do it, but it's not the issue. The issue is if they do what they may do, it's not true. There is a risk. And I think it just doesn't apply just to Italy, but it applies to any member of the euro. So I think that's really a very dangerous issue. Let me... I had a few moments. I've been talking too long. On the Brexit... So again, I mean I heard the speaker this morning, and it's clear it's going to complicate life. It's clear it has medium-run issues. What is it going to do in the next few years? I think that's where the uncertainty is absolutely central. When Brexit was voted, I thought that most firms would just put plans on hold to see how it went. And investment would decline strongly. It didn't for a while, but now it does. Now it is a fairly serious effect on investment. And I think as long as the smoke has disappeared, then there will be very low investment. When it happens, some of the investment which had been put in reserve would actually happen, but then you'll have the adverse effects of tariffs. So my sense is lower growth in the UK in the short run is the most likely outcome. And the last thing I'll mention, because I think one or two were mentioned this morning. I don't want to go back there in China, US. It's oil. It's clear. We have learned, I think, two things, is that the supply of oil, and again I'm talking in this room to people who probably know much more than I, surely know. The supply of oil is now largely determined in the medium run by share oil, which basically can be produced at 60 to 70 dollars. And so in the long run, it probably is a hard time getting above that and it may, as technology improves, actually be a low and low ceiling. But in the short run, it takes just one million barrels less, out of more or less 80 billion a day, to actually lead to very large shifts in prices. So it's fairly easy to think of Saudi Arabia cutting production if it becomes they are happy, or Iran putting mines in the straight of all moves. There are many, many scenarios you can think about, which would get the price of oil to above 100. I think that's a genuine possibility. Economies are much better. Most of them are in much better shape to handle it. The US in particular, because it produces now such a large amount of oil, can handle it much better than in the 70s. But that would be an issue that we have to think about. Let me conclude. So I don't know how I sound it. I think I'm less pessimistic. I feel that I'm less pessimistic than some. At the IMF meetings in Bali, people were extremely pessimistic. I'm not there at all. I don't think that there is any recession baked in the current numbers. It may come, obviously, and it will come in some form at some point. But there is this, what again, as economists we call, nitrogen uncertainty, which is our inability to fully understand the effects of things that we haven't seen before from the geopolitical front, and we have to continue to worry. Let me stop here. I don't know if I take questions or not.


If you followed me for a while, man, I've been talking about depression, it's near and dear to my heart. I've been talking about that for about 10 years. And I can only speak about it because I know the darkness. I know the hopelessness. I know the despair. I know the feeling that nothing is good, that nothing ever will be good.  Nothing ever was good. Nothing will be good. I will never get through this. How could I possibly get through anything so terrifying and terrible? It doesn't make sense that you could move through something so thick and so dark. How could you move through it? You just get stuck in it. There's no way out. I've been at the end of my rope on this channel. You've seen me. I've hit record in my dark moments. When I can't see the light, I'm going to tell you five things that helped me. And I hope they're helpful to you that give you options. You don't need to feel the hope, but just look at this as a scientist right now if you can. Be the observer here and be like, okay, here are five options here for me. Here are five things that I can do. Two of them I haven't even tried yet. There we go. So if you can, look at this just as something completely logical. Write down these five things for yourself. Okay. I know a lot of them are simple, but some of the best things that work are and we over complicate things when we're dealing with depression in that state. We are actually a very overactive brain in a state of depression because that anxiety sometimes comes with that, right? So listen, if you're in a rough spot, hold on, man. Hold on. Don't let go. Don't let go. You on video you watching me right now? Don't let go. Did I ever let go? I know, but I don't have your life. I know. But I wanted your life probably when I was in the dark. I wanted anybody else's life, not my own. You did nothing wrong. I hope you know that. I hope you also know it's not your fault. All right. We'll get to the five in a second. Sorry. I'm just thinking of, I always think of what I would want somebody to say to me. My mind always goes to comparison. Like I'm this guy in his 30s and I'm dealing with this.  I have to deal with this and I can't pull it together. That's where my mind goes.  Like this isn't about them. It was never about them. Maybe being closer to God in these moments, then I finally realized that it was right. It was between me and him the whole time. That's not about them. It's about your journey right now and you taking care of yourself right now. I wonder if you can offer yourself a little bit, just a little bit of understanding, just a little bit of compassion for how hard things are. And that maybe you clicked on the podcast, clicked on this video because it's a sign that you do love yourself. If you didn't love yourself, would you really want to weigh out? There's a very large part that maybe we can't even see right now that really is trying. And you know it. You know you're really, really trying. You know you're really, really giving it all you got. And you know that people don't see it. That you might go into work. You might hang out with family. You might text. You might have a phone call. And this stuff is 100% effort. And nobody knows the battle within. Yeah, it's hard. It's okay that it's hard right now. I wonder who I'm talking to. Gotta be talking to someone out there. Okay. You ready? Take a deep breath. Inhale through the nose. Remember where your feet are. Exhale through the mouth. Where are your feet? Ground yourself. Whoops. Ground yourself. Notice your feet. Notice your sit bones. Notice your hips and your pelvic floor. Come up to the diaphragm. Notice that. All these horizontal planes, right? And now notice your throat and tongue. Maybe swallow. Come into your body. I'm going to make these five things very simple for you. Because I want simple things for me. And I want things slow when I'm in a state of depression. And I've told everyone this before. The internet somehow something clicked. And I realized that it makes me sick. I can't scroll through YouTube anymore. All the thumbnails. All the clickbait. All the fast-paced multimedia. It's disgusting.  And if you feel that, man, you're in the right place, okay? So we're going to go through these nice and slow, gentle for you. And you don't need to do any of these things. You don't need to do anything right now that you don't want to do right now. I'm not forcing you. No one's putting pressure on you right now. These are things to let float, to marinate. And then you can make the decision when you want to make the decision. And I know that the decision you make will come out of love for yourself. And not hate. That you're moving in the direction of climbing that ladder to see the light. Because you really do love yourself. I know it's hard to see. Okay. So maybe there's going to be more than five. But I'll make them as simple as I can. Number one. A support group. Friends. Friends. People who understand. People who get it. The science of loneliness. When we feel like we belong. Our physiology changes. Our arresting heart rate decreases. Our blood pressure decreases. Cortisol levels decrease. When we feel like we belong and we're part of a community and something. And we feel understood. We feel like we care. We feel like we're cared for. We're not just, we just don't have the need to be needed. We have the want to be wanted. And it feels good to be wanted. Feels good to be useful. I told people on the email list. Because I sent out emails and I told them on our Saturday chats that my trigger. Like I get triggered. Now this isn't a trigger warning. And I don't, there's probably a better word for it. But when I feel like I'm invisible. Like nobody cares. Like I'm not understood. Yeah. I feel, feel kind of gross. I don't feel like myself. I feel like I got to get out. And it can be a trigger to be panic and anxiety. So it's very important for me to have peace. So it's very important for me to have people in my life. That understand, that support me. And I have to reach out myself and I have to put out effort to find those people. And sometimes they're far between, but that helps a lot. This is one of the reasons why I put together the Patreon again. Patreon.com slash Scott St. Marie. And we get together once a week. And it's people that understand depression. People that understand anxiety and we support each other. And it's a community of belonging. And I'm giving it a shot to see if people enjoy. That link's in the description. But finding people that really can understand what you're going through. At least be there for you and care for you. That's huge. It's huge. The loneliness piece can be the cause of depression. Or then depression can then cause us to feel lonely. Because we isolate ourselves. We can find someone. Speak to someone and reach out. That understands. That would be a, that go a long way. The second thing. Exercise. We know this to be just as effective sometimes as antsy depressants. If you can get a push up. If you can walk around the block. If you can walk to your fridge and back. If you can get the heart rate up just a little bit with a few squats. With some stretches, with some yoga. But doing something to increase the heart rate. Would be massive. Massive. Alongside exercise is having structure as well in your day. So if you can get out. For a walk every day at noon. And you know at noon the next day I'm going to be out for a walk. It helps this. Structure and at least we know where we're going to be on certain days at certain times. It releases worry from us. Structure is the most important thing for people with anxiety. We need structure in our day. So exercise. Anything you can do to get the heart rate up. Even a cold shower. Please give that a try. Number three. Medication. Whatever works man. I know people have been suffering from depression for a long time and they've never tried it. Is it stigma? It's they're afraid that it'll change their brain. Medication should be taken with caution. And it should be an informed decision. And it's a big decision. But. We know that people who are in the pit of depression will do anything. To get out. Anything. Pharmaceuticals. Give it to me.  But you know the pain that I've experienced the last two years. Give me the painkillers. After a year of pain I'm like okay let's go farm on time now. It's farm after two years. It's farm on time. If you're in pain. And you take an ibuprofen. You're not trying to be a hero against the pain. So if you're hurting right now. You can talk to your doctor about medication. And they can be very effective for people. There's no shame in that. There's no shame in that. The fourth one. Nutrition. We can talk about causes of depression and gut microbiome. Chemical imbalance. What is it actually about? People don't know. If we really really knew. There'd be better treatments out there. Believe me. So we still. Depression is still a very curious thing as to what is actually happening. But as far as nutrition goes. Have you tried an elimination diet? Have you tried getting rid of inflammatory foods? Like gluten? Like dairy? Like nightshades? Like kidney beans? Chickpeas? Corn? Have you tried eliminating coffee? Have you tried not drinking? If you use cannabis. Have you stopped using cannabis? And seen how you do there? So there are lots of things you can do with diet. If there's one thing I would recommend is just try no gluten or dairy for a bit. If depression kind of came upon you out of nowhere and life circumstance was the same. And you just don't know why. Like it just out of the blue.  This could be a micro microbiome issue. So there's a lot of resources with nutrition and depression. This is an invitation.  What's that? This is an invitation. So you don't have to do anything right now. You don't have to say, oh my gosh, now it could be a nutrition thing. Oh, it could be a medication thing. Oh, it could be an exercise thing. Is it because my heart rate's not up or is it because I have inflamed tissue and my leaky guts going on and leaking into my brain? Oh my God. No, no, no. These are just options. You do try one at a time if you haven't tried, right? Try one thing at a time. Maybe it's exercise. Maybe it's the, you know, reaching out for help. And that's really number five is therapy. You'd be amazed at how many people don't go to therapy and there's so many free resources out there for you to talk to people who are professionals. It's amazing how many people don't know about therapy. Oh, you mean I should have talked to someone about this and by talking about it. It can actually help. Yes, it can. The work I do with people dealing with depression and anxiety is, is something called focusing where depression sometimes feels like we're just in a tangle. Like we don't know what's what up and down. We feel so terrible. We don't know why we have so many answered unanswered questions and part of healing is untangling the conscious and unconscious. And just now you get to see these think of a ball of yarn and it's all tangled and then to kind of see it from all different angles. And then we get to untangle it and now it's in these straight lines and in this pattern that you can see and it flows better, right? So we feel like it were an emotional tangles sometimes and different kinds of therapies work at untangling that. But the biggest thing for therapy, my friends is finding someone you trust. Find someone you trust. If you see some snake oil salesman on YouTube saying he'll cure depression and it just takes six sessions and it'll cost $300 each. Do you trust, do you trust that person? Do you really trust that? I know we want an out. I know we want to get healed quick, but is the quick fix too good to be true? What do you feel in your gut with it? The people that have worked with me, they just say, Scott, you've been open about depression and I feel like I can trust you and can we just talk? And I say, sure, let's talk. So if you can find someone you trust, whether that's me, whether that's a psychologist, a psychotherapist, a social worker, I'm going to put down some help lines in the description as well for you. And they're free of charge and you can call if you're in need as well. There's crisis support workers there to help you. So there's so many more options. We're trying to keep it simple here in this episode. I just want people listening. You may feel like you're at the end, but sometimes it's just a bit of a leap to get you to that next set of rope. Like the end is really just the beginning of something new. And if you can just hold on a little longer and check out your options, let this marinate with you. See if you want to talk to a professional. See if you want to join a support group. See if you want to try medication, meditation. See if you want to try nutrition protocols. There's a lot you can do. I know in the meantime, it's hard. Reaching out to somebody who cares, who's there to help you would be a really good first step. Thank you very much for listening. I'd like you to know how strong you are, my friend. How much I admire your ears. How much I admire your soul for continuing on. For fighting the good fight. You got this. Stay strong. I'll see you next time. Bye-bye.