Everybody, today we are debating whether or not trans women should be able to compete in women's sports and we're starting right now. Ladies and gentlemen, thrilled to have you here for another epic debate. If this is your first time here at a modern day debate, want to let you know we are a nonpartisan platform that hosts debates on science, politics, and religion and we want to let you know we really do hope you feel welcome no matter what walk of life you come from. We try to host people with a ton of diversity of thought and backgrounds and so this should be a really fun one today folks. Want to also say we are really excited as later today at 4pm EST as you'll see pictured in the bottom right side or corner of your screen there will be a debate on whether or not E-sex work should be destigmatized so that one should be a wild one and you'll see on the far right side of your screen. Modern day debates has invaded the podcast world so this is in addition to our YouTube channel we're really excited about it. So if you love podcasts, hey check us out feel free to rate us and if we're not on your favorite podcast let us know and we'll work to get on there. So very excited for today's debate. I want to let you know up front that as you're listening if you're like I like that I want to hear more. You can hear more that's why I put the links of both of the speakers in the description just down there for you and so with that there should be a lot of fun folks we are going to get the ball rolling. I want to first before we do officially start the debate give you the format and then say hello to the speakers as we're really just thankful to have them with us today and so the format is going to be five to ten minute openings from each side followed by open conversation and then Q&A. So if you have a question fired into the old live chat and want to let you know given that Nine Tails Cosmic Fox will be taking the affirmative they'll be getting basically be starting followed by musical analysts following that and then the open discussion as mentioned. So want to say both to Nine Tails and Music Analyst we really appreciate you being here. It's a pleasure to have you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I think I actually we agreed that Music Analyst is going to go first. Oh sorry about that. Yeah. Still waking up over here. Okay. Mountain time. So thanks so much and Music Analyst the floor is all yours. Okay. Thank you. This is my first time being on here. I'm delighted to be here. I'm a Persian from Sweden so excuse my English sometimes I only spoke in English for two and a half years. Anyways, so a brief little thing about me. I'm a creative person singer, composer, philosopher, thinker, free thinker. Like in this discussion I'm not for trans women competing in women's whatever sport it is but I have one thing that I actually can relate to people like trans people which is I've always felt odd and sticking out of the crowd throughout my whole life. I don't know what it is but I've always been a searcher for truth and questions things. Even when I was five years old I was like what is this reality? Anyways, so I have one thing that I relate to people like trans women or any other people that are odd you know in other views. So I mean no way an expert on this topic but I have a bunch of thoughts and opinions on this which I would want to share to see if it holds any truth or not. If it doesn't hold any truth then I don't hold it because I'm after what is the truth and what is right no matter if it's nine tails or me or whoever. So anyways, so I just the preparation I did for this was like can I share my screen and I have just some things I've just put down in any which order absolutely just my thoughts so we're going to see what that is okay so I just share the screen right yes like this okay do we see this yes right now you're we're seeing the YouTube page okay do you see my I have a little yes thing okay so I'm just going to read these things you know it doesn't have to correlate correlate to anything okay so this is what I wrote down doctors treat men and women differently since the bodies slightly differ women are made to last like biologically in the old days of the caveman and men made to fight and protect the family so I'm just saying the difference between men and women women usually multi-tax task better while men single task better men and women store fat differently women gets more on the booty and the thighs men gets on the stomach etc because women are created to store energy because they have to take care of the kids and you know the whole thing but men needs the energy and more accessible accessible years of testosterone are lasting are you know they last after after puberty no women to man like I've not seen I mean I'm not look for it but I've yet to hear the other other way like a woman transitioning to a man and then wanting to jump into men's sports okay why not well they don't they don't have they don't get to gain as much as the other way around can gain like anyways also a minority can't dictate to the majority okay as long as everyone is accepted and not bullied or assaulted etc that should be what everyone should want and settle with that because not everybody will be liked by anybody everybody you know regardless if you're straight gay this that there will always be people that don't like you but the most important thing is to just be able to coexist with each other you know anyways force in any kind of way physical or non-physical equals rape like rape doesn't have to be like a sexual physical thing you can rape somebody mentally if you you know what do you say chain chain them mentally forcing everyone to be a certain way or your way equals eventually tyrannical dictatorship eventually if it goes to its extreme so where's the line anyways not not everyone would like everyone I just said that no matter how can't for example religious people not force their beliefs on others but you can also focus men are better at keeping focus deals with fear in a different way men confronts more often that's wrong spelling maybe I don't know men confronts more often than escaping a certain situation men usually drive cars better than women because of less fear and they have greater focus because women tend to have more you know and while while there are in there they're they're losing time which might be you know a couple of seconds but it might be important in a car crash or whatever also this is a question I would say to anybody that is trans nine tails I assume you are that right I don't want to you know disrespectful you are trans right okay so in that case the question would be but maybe I should take that later but would you if you could get born in an organic biological way into a female from the get go would you do that or would you prefer it the way it is now if all right all right just testing though can you hear me yes now and we'll also well I'm not sure if you're meaning to go into the open conversation now or if you're just kicking it over to nine tails for nine tails is opening but I do want to mention that in either case if we can if you're able to unshare your screen we'll kick back into the yes dialogue boxes yes but I have one more picture to show gotcha which is the difference to see it which is the difference between I don't get to I don't get to go to that tab for some reason oh yeah here just this picture and I'm good so we see how the men's bodies are compared to the women's body generally the skull is larger show shoulders wider higher I don't even know what female thorax narrower is but anyways female pelvis hip is you know wider males arms are longer legs longer etc so so that was that yeah I think I'm I'm done with whatever that was we will kick it over to nine tails glad to have your nine tails and the floor is all yours for your opening thank you for having me thank you to music analysts for being here and James in the mod for providing this wonderful space first to answer your question actually I'm gonna give a little bit of a twist I really want to play competitive frisbee golf after two years of transition so really this like not only is this something that I've thought a lot about but I've also done quite a bit of research it doesn't seem like that research will be the best suited for this conversation seems like we're better off talking philosophy and stuff at this rate because my intro might run a little long just gonna get straight to that and then we can talk about maybe your bone chart if you'd like yeah okay so just gonna start today I'd like to assert that there is no reason to prevent trans athletes from competing in sports I like to show how to discussion of trans athletes not only diminishes their accomplishments but the accomplishments and struggles of all female competitors and the spirit of athleticism itself this is why I think this discussion is better suited for pushing an agenda of ostracization rather than protecting the ever fragile biologically you know athletes first let's inject some critical thinking into the discussion something to consider is that the data on transgender athletes particularly data sets which follow the excuse me the process of transition and subsequent changes are lacking at best it's really hot here yeah too well anyone could theoretically indulge in the process of making comparisons and overlaying charts this task would be daunting to train professionals let alone merely summon with an agenda on the other hand the anecdotes and what aboutisms which seem to occur in this discussion tend to be near-sighted diversions rather than something which can be used to predict outcomes or establish solutions which don't further exclude the trans community if we think about what is being suggested by opponents to their inclusion it is the thing which the majority of the people fear most to justify that an entire group of people must not be able to participate due to some slight concerns is arguably dehumanizing and something we protect all other classes from being discriminated against any but anyone who uses biological essentialism has the ability to obsess about random concerns at their leisure but doing so doesn't make much of a case without the data or statistics there isn't much to go on except opinions alone and that's why it's particularly vicious to make this a problem for trans athletes to deal with I think that after considering how trans individuals are already targeted in so many other aspects of life and how it is important that people not be shunned for the sake of their well-being then the gravity of the situation can be seen it seems to be incumbent on my opponent to substantiate their concerns and extreme solutions they must show that statistically speaking trans people are somehow dominating in a way which isn't just proportional to their training and dedication my opponent must show that the differences between for instance a male to female trans athlete and an athlete-born female at birth are significant enough to produce noticeable effects lastly in order to show greater harm it seems that one would have to show that the danger of female athlete is in is unprecedented meaning that they aren't just in the same sort of dangers which these athletes sign up for but rather a new threat which can only be removed by excluding an entire demographic as far as protecting women goes the acknowledgement of protected classes can only guess one so far the special Olympics are a good example of a necessary protected class it would be objectively absurd to expect most athletes in the special Olympics to compete at the same level as fully able competitors while it isn't impossible that the special Olympian could surpass the capabilities of the professionals in the main league it is a bit much to expect that of them however the special Olympics are not flawless in their execution I've heard athletes from both sides say how it isn't right that the special Olympics only take place after it really says two things at once the people that people are more interested in capable athletes and that having them both take place in parallel to diminish the value of the original Olympics female sports are said to be the same sort of approach keeping them more vulnerable away from the Supreme this might be an outdated way of thinking the American female soccer team repeatedly outperforms the male team but somehow they are they still make even less money the rhetoric that women can only compete in an inferior way to men is a shattering is a shattered talking point in these modern times and at the very least it serves to invent infantilize female athletes as a whole when people make the assumption that because of the biological difference between men and women that a female athlete won't train to the same degree or take the same risk we remove their ability to actually break free of that paradigm I think it is very telling that steam out steel manning the opponent's opposition can only result in further degrading the accomplishments of female athletes which is where the bias comes in because there is a significant obvious bias for competitive for trans competitors who succeed in their goals the argument is that it's simply unfair because the different the competitor had differences in categories of x y and z yet these same people will remain silent if an athlete born female at birth were to make the same stride simply because their genitalia and chromosomes match the standard which doesn't even have strong enough reasons for being in place also that doesn't actually explain what those differences contribute to their performance simply being stronger doesn't help in every single sport I can use a personal example of frisbego I trained as a biological male but lost the majority of my talent as my ability to wield my unsightly frame became more difficult because the total throughput of my throws lessened with the and my accuracy fell noticeably what's interesting about excuse me what's interesting about the accuracy is that it shows a significant interplay of factors leading to a single performance statistic for some of the short arms it's impossible it's possible that it would be easier to aim because the resolution the resolution of fine movement required to execute a flawless technique is not as great as something with longer actuators but less strength but they have less strength sorry I think I should have added this part but some but if someone with longer actuators has less strength to compensate for that then having longer arms may not be necessarily advantage in something like frisbego when we assume that trans women are inherently better than cisgendered athletes we do so at our own convenience and as someone who was in between my first and second year I don't feel I have the luxury of assuming that like someone who is ignorant of the process would be and and yeah that is like I know that is a personal testimony but I can guarantee you if you went through the process it would be really hard to believe that a female male to female trans athlete can do the same as they used to the spirit of competition is not solely about winning while the human condition might drive us to formulate and show interest in games in which the stakes are high this doesn't necessarily express the goals of your typical athlete self-improvement is what many athletes will tell you gives them the drive to get better while winning does more like something you can put to paper if anything's the goal describes to athletes by people who want to exclude trans athletes are immature and vacuous they are often grateful trans athletes are often just grateful for the chance to compete at whatever professional or elite level they can they often an athlete in general often only see trophies and victories as shorthand goals and accomplishments assuming that a trans athlete wouldn't also have those same drives is entirely selfish their athletes and their people if we exclude them for participation in society because of what may be and what would only contribute to the attempts at and that would only contribute to the attempts at ostracization directed at that community will also stifling the collection of data which is clearly necessary to make more informed decisions while I have no problem discussing the problems which can occur in various sports due to the marginal differences between groups I also don't think it's up to trans people to solve the problem we all may be entitled to our opinion but when your opinion discards the majority of what's really happening so you can remove a group of people from existing in a sector society then without substantiation that opinions probably trash and that's that's my time. Thanks so much want to let you know folks as I mentioned at the start I have both of the links in the description waiting for you if you'd like to hear more someone Makayla thanks Makayla for letting me know I fixed nine tails cosmic foxes link as it was not working but currently is and so want to let you know folks will have open discussion and then Q and a to follow after so if you have any questions fire them into the old live chat if you're taking you at moderate modern day debate and makes it easier for me to get every question in that list and super chat is an option in which case you can not only ask a question but make a statement toward one of the speakers or both that they of course would get a chance to respond to super chat will also push your question to the top of the list for the Q and a so by the way forgot to mention it up front if there's your first time here consider hitting that subscribe button as we have many more debates to come so excited for this and the floor is all yours nine tails and music analysts. All right. What stood up for me nine tails what you said one thing was when you said that female soccer outperforms did you say that like outperforms male soccer. The male team. Yes. Yeah. That's not true. Well in various world competitions they have they have done better than the male team so when I say repeatedly I don't mean they consistently do it. I mean they have in various ways. Maybe there is an occasional case where it happens like an exception exception yes but overall you can't say that but it shows that they can they can mean achieve the level of the male soccer team. So the differences are negligible. Listen nine tails I've seen I've seen you know the national women's soccer team getting losing to like men what to say boys teenage soccer team like they're they're competitive with the boys soccer team. So how can I believe then that the women's soccer outperforms the men's soccer. Well it doesn't really all it really shows is that you observe these things. So far I'm waiting for you to make something that I will respond to. Yes. You know I work like this I have to say to people that don't know me including you I'm a you know I'm a free flower I try to filter my thoughts as little as possible.  You know I'm just just the point isn't lost. The point was that the superiority of males isn't inherent it isn't like something you can always assume sometimes that actually isn't true. Yes sometimes but in general they do outperform in you know running and you know what I talked about the focus. It's only sport specific. It can go to other sports. We can go to other sports. I mean the one you talked about Frisbee and stuff. I don't know about that. Maybe you're right on that. It's a complicated thing to consider. Yeah but you could be right on that. But what I'm talking about running soccer even tennis.  This is where I got the hugest one problem with. It's the fighting. Okay. The fighting is where I'm you know may ask you something. Yes when there's an athlete say let's just say a runner just to keep it kind of gender neutral. When there's a runner who turns out to be intersex they have both genitalia or the undeveloped various possible categories and somehow that gave them an advantage. Do you think that they deserve to have their trophy removed even though they're otherwise totally qualifiable as a female just somehow their traits. Give them an advantage. They can't qualify as a male. So what do you do. Can you explain that a little bit. Intersex there's a lot of cases where let's just use female athletes because it's easy. Female athletes will dominate and dominate and dominate. And it will turn out after doing some sort of examination that they have intersex characteristics and that would have given them less than female attributes. Certainly not male but less than female attributes. Okay.  No not a mind. Physiologically speaking the development made them let leaning out but not as that threshold of physiologically male. Okay. A little bit more masculine female. Yeah. Do you think that they deserve to keep their records. Yes. Because because yes this is a great point. Of course there are females that even in inside of the female division that are different like let's say an African African woman female might have a little bit more muscle what do you say you know muscle than a white female you know. Okay. So she has a little bit more advantage over the white female. So if I ask. Yes. Sorry I thought you might have been making I think I get your point. Okay I guess I'm just going to try to let you speak more I'm sorry. Okay so no no no problem. But so what I want to say is that you can't even out everything even in a in a female division you can't make everything even it's impossible we're all different we all have different bodies even if it's in the same sex whatever you want to call it we all are different different lengths etc. Different things we've done in our lives. I can agree with that. You know what I'm saying this you can never get it to equal never it's not it's not possible. In my mind I ask yes let's say two athletes actually dominated running one of them was this intersex trans sorry not just intersex athlete that you said qualified for those records and the other one was a trans athlete who had all the same statistics all the same performance all the same output measurable they kept track of it was basically how hold the same record but by 0.001 of a second more plus or minus I don't care. Do you think that there's somehow make their their entitlement to that position is negated simply on the basis of their of their sexual history their chromosomes and their genitalia because that are the only things which technically don't change that you can show for sure. I would say like if you're if you're comparing it to the more masculine female like the trans the trans woman. Yeah those are the two people dominating that sport that those two those two will be closer closer to each other like in terms of what to say performance ability whatever. But it's just because they trained let's just say it's just because they trained really well. Well it's because they have a little bit more muscles than the regular female and since the trans woman don't came from a came from a male body. I mean you've got to admit that right. You you come from a male can I just point out I've already negated that part of the thought experiment I've already said they have the same output so whether or not they have different muscle actually doesn't help. Yeah but that's such a hard thing to like asking you where is well we have to be real about it. So if they can and but it's so hard to say like this trans woman is like this. If the intersex person can be within the threshold that's acceptable and performance wise so is the trans person then how does this the trans person's sexual history actually disqualify them other than the fact that they're simply different. The difference is still that you are still having a male frame which the muscular female still don't even though she's more muscular than the regular what do you want to call the other it's not it's important way it's important wait because if you were born with a man's body. No listen if you're born with a male body maybe you would agree I don't know but male bodies are always are always a little bit more what do you say fuck is the world I'm looking for they're more clunky like bulky bulky yeah maybe you know like more like a while females are more wait wait female is like more you know what do you say we do know this you know yeah we just I'm just saying my thoughts I have to say my thoughts I don't know if you know and I think it's I think it's really telling that this standard can't apply to like a pretty like I would call this the no the no hypothesis experiment if you can't define a reason that two people with the same performance output aren't equally entitled to yeah but to me that's fantasy now you're just saying that they're different though it's just your opinion they are different men's bodies or their performance is the same their performance is the same it's not I mean I'm okay never ask you nine tails let me ask you this who would you say if you have to choose is the better dancer between men they've trained the typical men and take a typical women who would you see like you could answer that in two ways I think untrained the female body might have advantages initially but if the two bodies trains physiologically they can achieve some sort of they can achieve something much closer than the differences of untrained individuals yeah but let's say they're both trained okay no that's actually something that is accepted by scientists who study sports is that the differences between sexes untrained tend to nullify as both sexes trained to the same point so it's hard for me to talk okay well okay go ahead no it's hard for me because I know that a man is built more clunkier which would make the dancing clunkier while women are more you know fluid yeah fluid so we're talking about post-development for one thing so their past puberty their bones have done their their their growth what else would they contribute to this conchiness you know the density of the bones and all of that thickness well muscle memory you know so different I'm just going to point out we're just talking about differences we're not talking about what hormones actually do to people and I think that's the difference between the due to people and I think so far the standard you provide wouldn't stand up to the actual changes that people experience after transition because bone density is lost by people in transition not their bone that's not that's not true I just saw a video maybe I don't know people don't like I saw a video from Joel Rogan just now okay talking about talking about yeah but are we we're not either you know I'm saying we're just talking part of my transition process is being told by my doctor all the crazy things that are going to change and one of them is that I need to be very careful about my bone health because I do lose bone density and I am more prone to having broken bones you probably do yes you probably do but will you do that enough hold on so that it negates from nine tails okay yes actually I do think I said enough I would just say that like um like as a trans person I can speak to experience that there that there is an increased risk and um the difference has become more negligible the more the transition proceeds I still don't think you lose uh all of those years you've been like that's just your opinion okay I mean I have to look also you know don't take offense I'm just saying you know you look a little bit thicker than you know you know that's my bone size you can't tell my bone density from looking but I still can you're in too so I'm halfway to the point that is now considered agreeable that trans athletes I mean I must just say you look even more than me I don't even I look soft it doesn't really matter how I look because my bone density is still decreasing but it does though that's how we determine something if you see a big no it's not giant rest you measure performance no no wait you when you see a big ass big dude with muscles you know you know pumped up like boom like a giant you assume that person has a lot of power don't you you don't assume that person is weak right I also don't assume that they have capabilities to wield that power because I've seen martial arts videos we're much smaller people yes yeah I don't expect so I think that's what you're talking about but you're talking about mass versus capability and this is why I think this discussion can only get us so far because when it comes to it trained athletes don't just train their bodies they train themselves to have greater capabilities and so the more that these differences become negligible the more that all that really matters is can they train to be the same sort of athlete that you know it's not on a level it's not fair it's not fair if you have still have some masculine bone structure and muscle memory even the brain have hurt even the brain is different between a male and a female it is seems like it's not fair because you want it to be it doesn't seem like you have no no I have no skin in this game I'm just I like I love to debate okay I have this inclusion huh you are working back from a conclusion your logic isn't that you're found evidence that proves your point your logic is that this is my conclusion and these are the reasons why my conclusion but whatever that's do you have uh personally speaking I I think it's absurd that anybody would think that um like I for instance could perform at the level that I did like a year ago it's it'd be impossible like literally impossible well let's say you were a fighter and I have to choose I have to bet my money on you or I don't know Lisa uh what do you call them regular female what do you call them I don't know I'm not I like I think the discourse is settled on biological female female born at birth is like a little bit more sensitive I think you know cisgender female is also okay okay the biological female it's easier for me to remember you know I've got a lot of shit in my head but so in a fight between you and a biological female I will bet my money on you more than not nine times nine or five times I think that's shallow in your side because personally uh that's shallow it's true well hear me out hear me out I never was a good fighter as a kid first of all I think the funniest thing is I'd cry after every fight I'd cry and I never wanted to fight again because I never could secondly I don't uh well there's two reasons I think one of them is personal reasons but another reason is like things that happened throughout my childhood I do not fight back properly I don't have a proper adrenaline response I tend to just want them to stop and there's and those things um but but here's the thing it's like you can't make those judgments about somebody just on their looks alone and this is what sports are really about because they bring out more than just our physicality I know not fully yes but let me just ask you this okay you say you you don't like to fight you know I understand I'm the same I was when I was it's not that I don't like to it's that my body physically makes it difficult for me to fight okay let's say let's say by by by sorry yeah I'm just not a fighter okay but okay but let me ask you this let's say somebody's attacking your loved ones I don't know what happened they're trying to physically attack your loved ones whoever that is would you be able to switch that on and even though if you haven't been fighting before to just like try to defend the people you love would you in that situation would you try to ignite that I need to answer yes with a caveat though because I think that the majority of females could also do that in a lot of scenarios too and you're also talking to somebody who uh used to be a little squeamish around bugs but now if a bug jumps out from a corner I literally run away screaming so I think like what you're trying to quantify is something that you can't show doesn't change with hormones and I think the majority of the things you're saying you can't show doesn't change your hormones let me ask you this they say uh when you have more testosterone you become a little bit more or less fearless I mean you become more fearless I agree when you have more testosterone that you know it doesn't have to be anything good but you you're less fearless more fearless there seems to be something going on with that I can speak from experience um the thing that's the great thing about sports though is that a lot of the fear in sports is contained it's very much controlled and so the risks that are taken by athletes are generally shared amongst genders yeah they're both taking risk but what I'm saying is the more testosterone you have the the more fearless you become and that can be an advantage in sports but I don't know fighting especially in fighting I don't think female competitors experience fear like that when they're actually competing I don't I think you're ascribing something to them that you can't actually show is there because I think when you're a competitor and something you don't have fear I just think that that's like a natural thing you can assume but fighters have fear even even the greatest fighters I have always said like if a fighter says they don't they're not scared when they're going into the ring they're lying they're trying to hide that they're they are afraid but we all have fear when we you know why you know why because it makes sense they say we all have fear because we don't know when we go in there we don't know if our heads are going to be smashed in and I might have a permanent you know disability but literally all the or even die even down that risk I know but that doesn't yeah but that doesn't take away that fear is not there and you know fear is still there regardless but female football players still got through that fear so I don't think you're making a very quantitative statement about female athletes I think you're just saying like oh some females feel more fear so we should assume that about all females generally most of them not some there might be exception I think that's more of an outdated conception about you let me explain explain this I can actually tell you something personally I was going to say women to me are I have been some of the biggest influences in my life or some of the most fearless people I know they they they're willing to take on such like diverse problems and not just like keep on solving them in the same ways if anything I think women are less afraid of a lot of the things that men are afraid of and especially if you look past just like brutality let me just turn that around to you how can you say that women are more tend to be more like what you just said you know you just said that all women don't have to be all full of fear but now you're saying there women tend to be like what you just said well I think that this is a more complicated thing than just reducing fear down to a fear of brutality I think like there's a lot of incentive physiologically speaking for men to engage in brutality I don't think that applies as easily to sports because sports are a way of controlling that brutality and women do engage in that same brutality so it seems like it's a counter example of it okay let me let me ask you this would you agree in the old cave days of humanity neanderthal i don't know what you want to call it as that the men had a purpose and the women had another purpose the women was you know to give birth of a child and you know give that child love and emotion and all that while the man was hunting and defending its family well I would say that that there was a proponent to that in our biological landscape but I also wouldn't say that there were no women who were able to take on the roles of men and no men who are able to take on the roles of women yeah I'm not saying that either but I'm just saying in general can't possibly well and that's the thing is like I think that you're when you make things biologically senseless you're removing the people who aren't stereotypes from you can't neglect the biological thing you know why you know why because we tend to we as human I think we become a little bit arrogant in this way that we try to just because we have high technology and this that we try to also dictate and nature listen I I can want to alter my reality yeah are you are you gonna elaborate on that because yes you're okay I just want to make sure because you have yeah I'm trying to I'm sorry yeah so no problem I might want to you know alter my reality because I'm not happy with with how I have it right now but I just can't on some things some things are just objective truths you know what I'm saying some things like do you believe in objective but here let me just point out that this biological essentialism you just point out is not an objective truth there are women there are women who succeed the roles of and the roles of male and there are males who succeed in the roles of women yeah but you're talking about exception exception let's hear let's hear the rest okay yeah therefore I don't think that it's an absolute like you're making it up to see and therefore the fact that it's not an absolute shows that you can't you know say that there's some fundamental law that we can operate on okay let me know when you're done so I know so I don't need to that was it that was yeah that was it okay I would say the opposite there is absolute stuff like just looking at us we have a penis they have a vagina or I men have a penis they have a vagina that's a clear difference that doesn't really help in sports for the most part if anything women have a better advantage in most sports because because of their vagina yeah yeah because they don't have their dangles because they don't have dangles okay that might be true but you know in sports you have the the cup that holds them tight those are not great I actually tried hockey for a bit in creating and I'm glad I never actually had to wear those consistently I think that still gets advantage but still though if you if you're running and you're a dude with balls and you have something that holds them tight that helps you with running like it's almost like you got a vagina now but it's it I assume having nothing there is better I don't know if you have a cup I think it will help you even though you have balls anyways I think it's actually really telling because when you do consider the differences that hormones make you can only really reduce it down to an argument about bone shape which is like you know reminds me of when people used to be obsessed with skulls and then genitalian chromosomes and then of course bone density like how thick your skull is let's say you're going into a few huh I can guarantee you that bone density changes the bone shape is not what changes there are these are two different things we have to be able to differentiate them I don't know if I can I can be with you on that you might you know reduce maybe a little bit but I don't think you will lose it all but do you have a basis for believing that or are you just assuming that because it makes you sound right listen I'm not claiming that what I'm saying is the absolute truth or whatever I'm just speaking from my own view which we are all pretty much doing in okay yes oh no sorry I was trying to give seed to you but this is why I think working back from your conclusion is problematic because you don't get closer to the truth you just get you could just frolic in whatever you want to be true at any given time and so what's really true is that the data has shown that bone density is lost to a point that's comparable to other women what data is that how can I know that that is true oh geez well I mean we can start sending sources back and forth I think yeah no and and we might still not get to the real answer maybe you're right maybe you're not let me let me continue let me continue yes um shoot I actually lost my point that is cool take I had to just talk about take your time so so like really when you're working back from your conclusions there's a reason that like the data isn't saying yet that men have a definite uh physiological advantage you're not going to find very many scientific papers that are peer reviewed or case studies that are peer reviewed because so far the data doesn't quantify that and so when somebody's the semi-finished so whenever somebody's trying to make these conclusions without the data they're they're simply frolicking in the land of fantasy the problem I have with this it's all too much numbers talking like there's no I agree you know actual not enough numbers to talk about I I put more emphasis maybe I'm stupid for this but I've put more emphasis also on what I actually can see and think for myself because that I can I can yeah but I can get my own conclusions to this I'm not saying I'm right I'm just saying I have my thoughts because I I not only look at numbers because numbers can be you know tampered with I don't know you know what I'm saying but that's I think that says a lot because really uh I think this discussion can only be taken place with people who don't know scientists aren't having this discussion yet because they know that there are still myriad studies that have yet to be done to actually quantify any of this it is very and so just let me finish though you're not just talking about something inconsequential you're talking about the social ostracization of an entire class of people and so this isn't just a benign thing where like if you're wrong it's it's okay if you're wrong then but what you want still happens then you're very wrong I'm not pushing for for any of this I'm just listen I mean when you work back from conclusions when you look back from conclusions I think you naturally are but I don't no no no no I'm observing stuff and then I'm saying what I'm observing I'm not saying I'm right I'm just saying what I'm observing is this this this this that that's all I'm doing I'm just like putting stuff on the table some might stick some might not I don't I don't have any listen I don't I don't you know I'm not invested in this I just have opinions but let me let me ask you this how come doctors when they have to treat a person they need to know if you're a biological male or biological females just because apparently there are some difference with hormones and body parts they have the ovaries and shit and there's some some difference and they need to know if you are a biological sex your biological sex not to offend you or be against you just because but just because they want to treat you correctly because if you give them don't we get it again nobody I mean maybe not everybody just if they give you wrong information if you give them a wrong information they might treat you bad I mean how do you say they treat you wrong and then you might get you know bad things happening to you because they treated you as a female while they should have treated you like a male just on the treatment like what do you say to that what do you like let's say you let's say you something happens you need to go to the yes quickly I'm gonna finish yourself you're gonna go to the doctors and you're very damaged whatever they need to know what would you say well actually I am gonna answer your question I just want to point out one thing but then I actually have a question for you just so we can be on clear terms I just want to point out that this is actually not going to say much about trans people and sports is only going to say anything about the differences between male and female so I really think that we're getting away from the subject but it is tied into this question I want to ask you the question I want to ask you is do you think that genitalia and chromosomes are more relevant to medical doctors than they are to professional athletes I would think it's more to the doctors yes and that's I think that once we realize that that there are myriad reasons more why a doctor would consider that and a professional athlete might consider the genitalia as if they're the people they're competing against then I can see why we might see I mean this is kind of a false fluency yeah but when it comes to the sports I don't think people really care about what's between your legs they're talking about I really hope not the physical no that would be stupid but you've already shown that there is a bias for when people have those genitalia or had them and when they have those chromosomes yet their performance is matched with someone who qualifies as a female competitor yeah but that's so hard that's so hard no that's so hard to get an exact number of what you as a trans woman can perform and what a female can perform it's so hard to measure something like that it's it's a fantasy thing no wait wait wait it's a fantasy thing as I said before there are no equals in even in the same sex sports there are no equals even there but you have to you have to what do you say I have to do it in some way like I think the fantasy I think the fantasy is assuming that anything you say could apply to reality when you're just simply making observations of a medically complicated phenomenon about an entire class of people I think if you're going to try to make these arguments if you can't substantiate them then you're arguing for something quite awful and quite disastrous why do we have to maybe I think so you're arguing for something that's quite disastrous to the trans community with very little basis at all okay and I think that that's pretty that's pretty cruel because anybody could make that position meant to be cruel at all but you know what I'm saying then I really think you should revise your positions if like either research them better or like try to listen I've said I'm not here to say what I'm saying is the absolute truth I'm here to discuss and that is the problem listen then let's go into this that is the problem well my problem is actually that what you're discussing doesn't even apply to gradient biology because it's already missing some of the fundamentals of that like we're already like we're doing a better job speaking to how someone and who's like 10 might see gender and sex and stuff like that and how an expert ever would and we're not getting any closer to understanding how an expert would it doesn't matter we should be able to have these debates but I'm not we can't we with biological essentialism alone we can't I'm not attacking anybody I'm not in that field you know what I'm saying you are given uh what I was going to do is go ahead I'll let you finish that point nine tails and then I'm going to jump to uh something that just came in I think when you do biological essentialism you are undermining what's really going on by reducing people down to their biology this is related this question is related so you'll get a chance to answer both of you thanks for your super chat we're going to interweave some of the super chats just to read them when they're relevant if we can so T Torchon thanks for your question said can we remove all categories let best X win I'm confused by that last part but regarding removing okay if you want to explain your interpretation that'll help us help clarify things yeah so like the idea being that you could just be like a ranked uh system where he knows uh this is obviously okay so like go ahead this is less applicable for some sports more applicable for others I think it's ideal if we're going to address some of the problems that gender does create in sports this is a definitely an ideal solution so let me say see if I got this straight because if it is it's something I wanted to bring up is that is what was the question like create a third division if you like where it has just the unit just a unified division where everybody competes all in one and all humans kind of ranked you're kind of ranked yeah but you could also yeah but why take away the the other ones why do you need to take away the men's ones and the females wants to have this you know unified ones no but why can't you have the men's you have the women's and you have the the mixed one that has everybody in it why can't you have that it's not always necessary it is necessary because some some you know biological females they want to maybe not want to be in with men and trans women and this that maybe they want to keep they don't have that right to make that choice I think this is really reliant though on underestimating the ability for biological females to achieve the level of biological men I think you're creating this huge vacuous gap between them based on what you don't know about it and you're using that I know I'm a male I know I can be most women I'm pretty sure what you're saying would be incredibly and convincing the most experts because what you're doing is you're saying here are all the things I don't actually understand about the difference look how big this gap is this is evidence that the gap is significance between these two things I'm no dummy just because I don't know the numbers I can't think from I have a I have a great mind I'm not trying to be arrogant I have a great mind but it's not conventional it's not like you know how you I would argue that your arguments could only apply to a self-centered worldview I'm not self-centered at all I want you know what I want I want everybody to be able to be who they are everybody I don't care what you are you have the right to be whatever you want as long as you don't force it on anybody else I don't care if it's a straight person forcing straightness on somebody or a gay person forcing it I have good news the point I have good news nothing's being forced in fact but it is no it is because let me finish let me just let me finish you actually created the scenario where this is happening because if we're going to truly include people for being who they are we're not going to exclude them unless we can make substantial arguments for why they should be excluded and you're arguing that just let me finish you're arguing that they should be excluded because of how much you don't understand about the difference between a transgender athlete and their biological counterpart but that's your opinion that I don't know but that's what you're doing that's literally what you've done this entire time you haven't substantiated anything okay let me ask you this inclusive inclusivity inclusivity I don't know how do you say that perfect great inclusivity okay inclusivity what does that mean it includes as many people as possible many different types of people right yeah I'm tempted to say the opposite of exclusion but yeah ideally it's not excluding people for things that they don't need to be excluded for okay but in the overall sense of it it's like inclusive which means we tend to more include people than not include right yeah less reasons to exclude than reasons to include so it's more into the inclusive huh yeah including okay yes we let me then ask you then if I can make this point where do you draw that line of inclusivity I'd probably wait till there's enough data for the experts to say what they think is most effective because so there is the semi-finished so far there just isn't enough data to actually quantify that and I don't but I'm asking you and I well I'm saying I don't think it's fair yet to exclude a class of people without a with a lack of data but you could say in a way that people that may not automatically share your opinions that you're excluding them because they don't agree with you you're excluding them they can still compete in the sports I don't know what you mean at all no but for example when you try try to say that I was attacking somebody some some way you know that's starting to exclude me out of the picture like you you know but let me let me let me differentiate because there's a difference between saying you musical analysts are tracking are attacking all trans people whereas by virtue what you're saying diminishes trans people down to a biological component which they which they are more of them so when I couldn't obviously I could have used better language I'm gonna have to give you the floor for a couple for at least a minute because I have to get my charger and just to be fair I'm not saying you are personally attacking me okay thank you should I keep going or James do you want to interject with some questions so can read one or two super chats that are targeted toward me nasty guy Steven Steen thanks for your question or statement says James is the third biological sex alpha daddy thank you for that Steven nasty guy folks nasty guy thanks for your question let's see this one comes in we can do one more and then we can do any sort of concluding points from you both before we jump into the Q&A so we'll do one more T Torchon thanks for your question said if trans woman is valid why is trans race not valid trans race it's actually pretty easy sex is a very objective thing and race is not if you talk to any experts I guess like you could start with a sociologist or maybe an anthropologist they would say that race is more of a construct we use to describe these groups but you could actually draw an objective line between the races gotcha Vince if you have any response um yeah I just want to say on another point to this if there are trans race would that mean like let's say I'm Persian but I I feel like an Austrian and an African but these people these people would say they feel it on a physiological level right okay let's say I'm doing that too I don't know let's say I'm doing that I mean yeah I might be thinking that I am that but can I be black white and one more some other color at the same time I don't know if that is how you determine race I don't know are we are we determining race on how how our skin color are or the culture we come from I don't know you know what I'm saying it must be a very personal thing I can't speak for these people I can't either that's the first time I've heard trans race anyways I want to ask uh go ahead I think I want to just ask you that is this one thing I'd like to do hold on one second is what I do want to give well probably because I think the challenge of that question was directed toward nine tails so give nine tails the last word on that one if you want to add something really quick before we go back to nine tails you can I'll leave it up to Benz actually because I feel like I said what I need to say already okay but I'm done on that question got you trans race questions so okay but I have a I have a final thing to say ask nine tails which is this whole thing where do we draw a line do we draw a line is there a line that is drawn and this I don't know if this is related to the sports but I'm talking about you know some some would say to a trans woman like yeah you feel like a woman but when I look at you you got the you know biological male body so they would argue yeah even though you feel even though you feel like a woman on the outside you still look like a man so this is a great place for me to answer actually yes yes because sink observations alone aren't what we use to define reality we obviously can't use our observations to define physics we can say that certain observations are defined by these laws that we've determined by physics but we can't say that somebody is made of the observations that other people make of them and so the line will certainly not be drawn by the observation people make okay let me then say this to you why does a trans woman feel the need to for example grow out long hair and wearing dresses this that because that is trying to look like a biological female isn't it yeah and that would have to but why why could you not look like whatever you want and still be a female why do you have to dress like a female people do that that is there are trans non-binary people in that sense yeah we'll just say though those are my let me answer let me answer I think the key point isn't about being a female it's about never actually being a male and so for me like I only ever could look up to the females in my life like I only ever got close to the females in my life even if they were just friends they were better friends to me throughout my life and so all of the demands that were put on me by a male literally maybe not want to have anything to do with being a guy I didn't want people I don't want people to treat me as a guy when they see me I want them to assume I want to be treated as a woman you feel like a woman basically it makes more sense that I that I would interact with the world that way but okay what would you say is a male thing what is being a male like if you take away the physical physiology thing geez it would be a male but you have to know because you you you just said you don't feel like a male you were more like the female ones so what is it that made you feel that you're not like these guys and you're more like these females James you feel like asking a question we can jump into the Q&A if you guys okay James one one I have a point with this hold on I want to give unless nine tails is deferring to you I want to give nine tails a chance to answer okay I could just give a simple estimation I'm not going to answer directly because where I was going we got okay hold on nine tails froze while trying to give an answer nine tails we didn't hear that last three seconds or so I just I just have a simple explanation it's the expectations that I cannot do so any expectations that you would apply to a male or just assume that I could never do them even though you don't really know what defines a male I do I just don't want to get into it it seems like okay okay okay okay okay okay but this is my last point this is where I'm getting at where is the line like if somebody says a 45 year old male let's say male okay says he feels like 13 year old male where is that line drawn should we accept should we say okay he feels like a 13 year old male therefore he wants to be around 13 year old whatever kids should we be inclusive to that is by the way is this are these our final points no I'm just making a point there isn't we're talking about this I just I just I just want to make sure that I respond accordingly I would say that if there is going to be a fair way to describe things it's certainly not going to be looking at two people of equal output and assuming that one person's less qualified because they have a different gender history you're going to need something more substantial than that no I'm just talking about that guy let's say you're right you're not actually doing we're both just talking I mean you're not doing anything different well intellectualism requires work so you see the jab why did you feel I'm not jabbed you why didn't you feel when you jab me well because I've not been jabby to you because it's so easy to have this discussion from a point of privilege to say that I just want to understand but let me finish because what you're doing is you're saying that my observations matter most to me and therefore they must apply to reality but in fact like anybody who had oh we lost your nine tails nine tails will be back folks don't worry we've been through this before we'll get through this nine tails will be back in just a moment sometimes internet connections ebb and flow but do want to mention while we're on the subject privilege came up and tonight at 9pm eastern standard time we have three debates today we were going to have a debate on whether or not male privilege is real so that should be a juicy one so don't forget to tune in for that if you want reminders I think there's usually that you can like click set reminder now on like the event page so we'll wait for nine tails to come back let me check if there are any other questions why the way I don't know if this is just me if I'm crazy but what I've been seeing in the live chat is like scrambled pictures where it's got like different people's pictures matched to different names is this just me or am I yeah so like I'm baffled by this I I'm wondering I'm like did I have some bad orange juice this morning because it is almost like a hallucination where I'm seeing different people's names matched with different pictures other than their actual avatar so I am frightened but we are very excited as like I said today should be a wild one and let me just peek over and see if any new questions have come in that we can ask while we're waiting for nine tails to jump back into the chat we do have one let's see from how soy thanks for your question said I just dropped by here quickly but I have to wonder let's see well this was actually a question that we want to give nine tails a chance to respond to and so we're gonna wait for nine tails to come back I can give you a couple channel announcements in the meantime very excited we are on we just got on our height iHeartRadio for podcast apps we just got on Google podcasts we're waiting on Pandora I think we should be on Pandora like any day now so you can actually listen to our podcast on Pandora so that will be awesome and want to let you know as well we are excited for a lot of debates not just today but tomorrow morning we will be going at 8 a.m my time mountain time so if you in the if you're in the mountain area the mountain time zone like Colorado I think Arizona is currently in mountain time we are going to be going at 8 a.m tomorrow morning which is 10 a.m for those of you on the east coast and that way we'll also get to hear from our European friends hopefully we will be going on the topic of whether or not Islam fits in western society so that will be a juicy one and Ninetales is back thanks so much let's see if we if the connection can make Ninetales is back glad to have you back and yeah absolutely so I think you were maybe saying something just as you got cut out am I wrong I forget I just had a moment that's okay otherwise I can remind if you want sure yeah I was just saying we'll finish this there's a line before you is there a line to be drawn at some point or not is there no line to oh yeah I remember now I just I was just thinking we're definitely not going to get anywhere by saying hey look at this person they don't look female even though like the majority of trans people probably pass so I don't think it's at all a very quantifiable argument or position to take it would fall short of any expert opinion gotcha we will jump into the Q and A so thanks so much folks for your questions we have another one from Hal soy said why is it that this never seems to be a debate topic if trans men should be able to compete in men's sports yes yes yes can I go this is for pretty I think this is meant to be like a challenge to Ninetales okay yeah and I think that that's actually a good proof of the bias is that the qualifiers are literally that we have to infantilize women in order to deem that they need to be protected and be white knights for them so you know of course men transitioning or female transitioning to male just isn't on the radar of people who are trying to make a bigger issue out of something that really is gotcha this is just because it's a juicy question we'll kick it over to Vince and come back to you Vince is this true are you white knighting are you a soy boy trying to hell no okay hell no I would never do that what's your answer on this question is it true that you're a white knight oh they think I'm a white knight is that the case for women they say you're trying to be a white knight you're trying to say oh no no no no no no of these women no no no no listen no no I'm I'm the hero for what is right and what is true I don't care if you're a woman so far you have trans this that huh or a music analyst I don't care who you are uh I'm just I just want things to be right and fair that's all but I want to ask to that uh I would say why there aren't female to men trans going into others uh going into men sports ah but no it wouldn't be notice that there's none of the propaganda I promise we'll give you the last word on this nine tail since that it's originally for you it wouldn't be wise because uh I would say they don't have any advantages over to the guys they will get wrecked they would get wrecked therefore they don't do that but on the other side men to female they might have if you if I if my stance on this is right they more more than not might have an advantage on the women and that gives an incentive for them to join the women's and not the the males biological males okay yeah and nine tails will give you the last word on this given that the super chat seemed to be challenging you thanks james uh well first of all he said he wasn't white knighting because he's just here to uh push the truth but he can't even tell where the truth is so I think that's really I know the truth I've been searching for it hold on hold on yeah but you just challenge you nine tails to any other debate as well not just this topic okay here I it's it's interesting how you rely on your observations like almost every other expert does not um but the other thing is that naturally we don't notice female to male transitioners in the propaganda looking to target trans people because that would be proving that their that athletes aren't just about winning athletes are competitive people they actually just want to show that they're bettering themselves they want to compete against other people it's the love of the sport and the fact that people I think it's very unathletic to reduce it down to simply winning okay let me just hold on we do we do have to keep moving I do have to I've got a number of other questions so we do have to keep moving I hate to do advance but iPhone musings thanks for your super sticker appreciate the support friend that means a lot and let's see we've got another from spark 344 says for nine tails the women's USA soccer team has better results in their gender category female national soccer teams lose to boys Australia women's teams versus boys U-15 I think they're saying that that was another example of Olympic women's teams losing to like teenage boy teams yeah yeah and I'm okay with that being the the fact that it's like it was within a gender category whenever you study something you have to control for those factors so it still proves something I think I think furthermore it would be really difficult for you to find that there are no female soccer players who can achieve the same output as any of the male soccer players on those teams Gotcha and next up thanks for your question this one comes in from Chu John Wing let me know if I mispronounced it appreciate your question said for nine tails what are the implications of body contact a boy wrestler lost his chance at the wrestling championship because he didn't feel comfortable wrestling a female well yeah I it's good to hear that he was sensitive of that I think females are pretty okay with incurring harm if it's something that they're already doing as part of the sport we have female MMA fighters and it's really up to that person they feel comfortable it's sad to hear that that boy thought he couldn't fight against a female competitor because really all it's it's not that these differences are not as big as we're making them seem and it's really removing the chance for that female competitor to show that she is on that boy's level gotcha and spart 344 I'm gonna look for a question for you music analysts if you want a chance we'll give you a chance to rebut and then we'll kick it back to nine tails to be fair because I don't want to gang up in the super chat is seems to be challenging nine tails so we'll go like I said first to nine tails then Vince then back says spart 344 why do you think there are weight classes in MMA and boxing how do you think Conor McGregor would fare against someone the size of Brock Lesnar well weight classes exist because even within the gender classes there are differences and weight classes are actually a good example of how you could get rid of gendered sports and just have these more distinct tailored classes to people's performance gotcha and if you want to chance respondents you can yeah I want to just add in to the previous point I have to do this because I would say the male let's say fighters would prefer a woman going to transition into a man and you no no no yeah but let me just say let me just say I think they would prefer that because they would more than not have the advantage over that female to male person that's what I think let's take it get over the heels yeah I think it's really prefer that and they will welcome that like yes yes come on trans woman to men we'll give it okay we'll let nine tails wrap up and then we'll go to the next question yes I think you're really essentializing athletes and why they do what they do like you're really reducing them down to this I need to win I need things to be as easy for me as possible when I I think for most athletes it's the love of competing it's the love of performing that yeah but but we must hold on we must move to the next question so thanks for your question this one comes in from oh one second just skipped over we a spart 34 again says I feel like I missed one let me know I feel like there was another question so sorry folks this is the last one that I have and so dedicated let's see oh gosh and I was a two-parter so I think I missed the second half so sorry spart 344 if you can do me a favor and condense the question into a single chat that'll help me I only have the first half and also want to let you know we do have another question this one someone had asked can we get a turf in one of these discussions we are open to it the door is open if there are any turfs out there do turfs call themselves turfs sometimes can you explain what is a turf it's a trans-exclusionary radical feminist they believe that being trans is antithetical to feminist ideals I was actually going to try to make the case in this debate that the more feminist thing is to not inhibit women based on like slight differences but we didn't get there but I would actually say that an argument with the turf would be amazing because I disagree on a theoretical basis alone I'm curious do you know where a turf would do turfs generally have a typical answer to the question that's being debated today I find it's about the same you mean like the turfs would say that turfs would take Vince's position or your position well yeah Vince's position they say here are my observations and that proves everything are you Vince are you secretly a radical feminist did you you're having you've been just leading us around hell no but let me explain hell no I'm I'm a feminist in the original sense of it way back or also I'm a feminist if that means if that means like I remember when this feminist move thing started to take off I was wondering if they were talking about women in in third world countries and stuff like that because that I'm 100% in with them on because they don't have freedoms they get beat down by their men etc but here in the west world I've never seen the things they're saying like you know they're blogging and web caming and having men open the doors for them and this that buying them dinner this that and also women can hit men and they you know what I'm saying women can hit men and men can't hit back I'm not saying anybody should hit anybody but I will I would say nobody hits nobody that's where where I start but anyways so what I'm saying is is I don't agree with that sort of feminism because it doesn't it doesn't take issue with the real shit that is happening women in the third world and other you know what can it what is that sorry James go ahead I'm going to leave it for James I want to go ahead we I'm trying to look for I think we did have some people in the chat say that they are turfs so turfs if you're out there we are open to having you on shoot me an email at modern day debate at gmail as that would be an interesting perspective to get to have as well and Joanna also said that it might be a good tag team you nine tails and Joanna against two turfs or maybe tag team maybe uh a turf and vince I don't know so yeah you strange bedfellows but that could be an interesting debate and so I'm I'm in always juicy and for sure I'm going to just quick double check that we have gotten all the questions that have come in so thanks so much folks it has been a true pleasure always fun and so want to say folks we really appreciate you hanging out with us and we would love to have both of these guests back nine tails and vince are linked in the description folks so if you'd like to hear more from them you definitely can and so nine tails and vince or music analyst thank you very much for being here it's been a true pleasure thank you to you thank you to you thank you guys thank you to nine tails for having a thank you to you know civil civil discussion I love this we should have more like this listen I don't have anything against anybody I just want people to discuss for sure sounds good that's an a line with our vision which is we do want to give everybody that are fair shot at making their case on an equal playing ground so that's what we're shooting for here in the future and we see it and we're pursuing it and we're excited for it so thanks so much folks for all of your positivity and support all of the people giving positive feedback we are always happy to get constructive criticism as well but want to let you know it's uh we really appreciate those of you who go out of your way to give love and support and so thanks so much for that folks we hope you have a great rest of your morning and perhaps we'll see you later today and one last thanks to Ninetales and Music Analyst thank you thank you thank you


Thank you very much. I see lots of friends in the audience. Thank you all for coming. I feel slightly awkward at this session that if you look at the program, the title of my talk is Significance of Rice Policy and Investment for Future Rice Food Security. It doesn't actually say anything about Africa. I don't actually know very much about rice in Africa. I have to correct it just a bit. I was actually influential in the book on West Africa, but it was Scott Pearson, Chuck Humphries, and Dirk Stryker, who were the actual authors of the book on the rice economy of West Africa. That book followed on a book in two journals and a whole bunch of working papers, and that Wally Falcon and I had done a political economy of rice in Asia. Really, that was the early 1970s when that work was done. Then when Food Research Institute of Stanford was still very active, and so Scott and Dirk Stryker, Chuck Humphries, took that political economy framework to West Africa. I was engaged with that, but I had left Stanford by the time I'd gone to Cornell. I didn't have my name on the book. I wish I had. That remains an influential book. If we want to understand where the rice economy of the whole continent, especially of West Africa, is coming from, what the historical roots of the rice economy, are in place to start as any. My experience, as most of you know, is primarily working on the rice economy of Asia. When we talk about rice food security, that will be heavily driven by events in Asia. I apologize for missing what I hear were some wonderful discussions yesterday afternoon in this room, but we had a whole bunch of ministerial representatives from Asia across the way with Minister Kao Da Phuc from Vietnam, sharing a roundtable discussion on the future of rice security in Asia, and in particular a discussion of a task force report that the Asia Society and Erie produced. I have one of the members of this task force right here in the room. It's a pretty distinguished group of members of that task force. Robert Sue represents the Asia Society. He's here. Robert, you do have copies that people would like to get ahold of. We talked about the recommendations that came out of this task force report, as I said, jointly done with the Asia Society, the International Rice Research Institute, a whole set of recommendations that I think would push the investment and policy environment forward in a very positive way. We focused mostly on Asia, that was a piece of reference. I would argue that the technology-high part, the non-farm economy part, the safety net part, and the provision of public goods in research and trade all are relevant in the African context as well as in the Asian context. So if your sole interest is developing the rice economy of Africa, I would still urge you to get a copy and take a look at that. My interest in the rice economy in Africa is the role it plays in the global rice economy. Africa has become a very important player because it's become quite a significant importer. Now, I hear my colleagues in Africa describe that as a failure, that something's wrong with Africa, that it has to import rice. I don't see anything wrong with that. People have a demand for rice, their incomes are rising enough that they can afford the rice, they're buying rice from the market. I hope in our push for investment in the rice economy of Africa that you do not try to do that inside a sealed wall. That would be extremely inefficient. It would be bad for global food security and if you cut yourself off from the world-rise economy it will be bad for African food security. So my presentation this morning is from the point of view of how does Africa participate in the world-rise economy as a more efficient producer? No reason in the world why Africa should not be a more efficient producer, but also as an efficient consumer of rice. So I want to talk a little bit about both. What is driving rice consumption in Africa? This, Sam, knows this is a really tough question. In the book that will be launched tomorrow celebrating Uri's 50th anniversary as a chapter on the long-run dynamics of rice consumption. By long run it would really be long run. We are doing projections out to the year 2050 trying to figure out what economic growth, structural transformation changing population growth, rural urban migration what are all these sort of long run structural factors doing to the demand for rice and we do it globally and then we try to do it by region. Well we've got a pretty good fix on these long run dynamic factors in Asia which is to say we have a pretty good fix on something between 80 and 90% of rice consumption in the world going forward. We can see pretty clearly the negative income elasticity of demand for rice in Asia playing out as income growth accelerates. We can see very dramatically the reduction in rice consumption when somebody leaves the farm and goes to the city as part of the structural transformation. We can see the slowing population growth in Asia slowing the overall demand for rice. Those forces are pretty clear and you can roll those forward with reasonable confidence. We cannot see any of those forces visibly in the African story. All we see is over the last 40 years rice consumption in Africa has been growing at 3.4% per year and there is absolutely no evidence in the time series data that that trend is beginning to slow down. There is no negative quadratic term in the time series equation. It's growing at 3.4% a year after year and if you roll that forward 40 years from now and do not do something about production the production in Africa will be importing 100 billion tons of rice. Now I don't think that can happen but I do think Africa could be consuming 50 or 60 million tons of rice even on a conservative basis and then the question comes where do they get? Are they going to grow it domestically efficiently? Are they going to buy it from the world market? If so, how is the world market going to provide volumes like that? 30 million tons tests the capacity of the world market now to get up to 50 or 60 or 70 million tons. A couple of decades from now strikes me as a serious challenge. So what I would like to do the rest of my time and I know we're saving time for questions I want to ask then what is it that Africa will be doing on the investment side in terms of production, productivity growth vis-a-vis what it's going to be doing on the trade side and participating in the world market. I've been hanging around the URI scientists for long enough to know that there are viable technologies that will fit African ecological settings that if they're not totally available right now will be in five years or ten years. There can well be an African rice revolution from the technological point of view. I think it's going to be physically and technically possible to do that and I know there aren't very many rice creators there's some problems getting that geared up but there's a lot of stillover from the kinds of varieties that get developed for the difficult environments in East and Southeast Asia and South Asia there's a lot of stillover from those varieties that might work in similar ecological settings in Africa so I'm pretty optimistic that we're going to find rice varieties that work reasonably well in the African context. What I am not so confident about are investments in the other critical areas beyond technology that will be absolutely essential and will be bundling constraints on whether that technological potential actually gets turned into production. We already heard the lack of infrastructure the fact that there are many productive areas of Africa that are more or less cut off physically from the market and if they're cut off physically then they're cut off from the flow of goods they're cut off from the price formation they're cut off from the market services and the whole supply chain both inputs and outputs infrastructure that's I think roads first and foremost but it's irrigation if you're going to use really high, high-end, high-yield rice varieties you're going to need some kind of water control but increasingly if you're going to have reasonably high quality rice you're going to need a million sector a modern, relatively sophisticated milling sector if you want to compete with the quality of rice that's coming in from outside and so the infrastructure investment all the way from the ports and the roads the communication systems maybe some water control along the way but very much including the quality dimensions in the marketing system and in the milling capacity mills are expensive if you're going to put in a big mill for each capacity and drying and have the quality dimensions and how those are going to get financed and where they're going to get located I think is a huge unknown in the African context and there's a real catch 22 it's awfully hard to get the private sector and farmers to invest in growing a lot more high-quality paddy if there's no place for it to go but why would a miller invest in a new mill if there isn't any paddy around and so somehow we have to grow these two things together there's enough of a national planner in me to say, gee, maybe the government could actually help solve the coordination problems that are involved here but there's also enough of a skeptic in me to know that governments don't actually do that very well and so I think we have to put on the agenda how you're going to solve that coordination problem between expanding production and expanding the milling and marketing capacity so that they actually mesh reasonably well as we go forward even if we can solve that I think we then have the most difficult problem and that's the policy environment Prabhu stressed yesterday in the open session the difficulty in putting in place and the term he used was sustaining a favorable policy environment for the rice economy that was specifically not how to make sure farmers have a profitable rice sector that's part of it but policy actually has to cut inputs to farmers to the marketing chain to consumers to trade and that has to include the reality that that trade system is out there and important and it is the key indicator of whether you're efficient or not if you're competitive against reasonably high quality inputs imports you've got a competitive rice economy and if you've got to put up 30, 40, 50% barriers to keep cheap rice out to compete against that then you've got a problem you are going to be a high cost producer and that's going to have real consequences then for the welfare of your consumers