Obviously, we've just heard President Trump talk, give his address to the World Economic Forum this morning. Talk heavily about the US economy and the performance of the US economy in the last few years, obviously, in particular. As you might have, it's the 50th anniversary of the death of George Orwell today. And I was... One of George Orwell's great quotes was, if liberty means anything at all, it's the freedom to say things that people don't want to hear. And I think President Trump was probably exercising that liberty before an audience that hasn't always necessarily appreciated what he's had to say. We have a great panel. Let's say we have a great topic to discuss, which is the relatively strong performance, outperformance of the US economy over a period of time now, but over the last decade or so since the financial crisis. The US has obviously grown at a somewhat faster rate than the other major developed economies. Secretary Mnuchin, obviously, is with us. We'll probably want to talk about the particular outperformance and the slight acceleration in the last few years. But we're here to discuss that, what's led to that, how that's come about, and also about the durability of the US expansion. It's been almost 11 years old. That's the longest expansion in the history of the US economy. And we want to examine the risks to the US expansion, what may derail it, what we can expect over the coming year or so. And to do that, we do have a very distinguished panel. I'm going to quickly introduce them. Glenn Junkin is the co-CEO of the Carlisle Group. Gita Gopinath, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. Secretary Steve Mnuchin, you know, the US Secretary of the Treasury. And Jim Fiddling, CEO of Dow USA. I'm going to start, if I may, with you, Secretary Mnuchin. The President did say in his remarks this morning that this was a boom, an economic boom, that the United States was enjoying, the likes of which the world has never seen before. Now, we're going to get into some of the specifics of US performance in the last few years. And there's no question that it has outperformed the rest of the world. And on some measures, there have been some particularly impressive advances. But is it really the likes of which the kind of boom, the average rate of growth over the last few years has been about 2.5% under the Obama administration. It was about 2.2%, 2.3%. In the 1950s, the US grew at 6%. In the 80s at 4%. In the 90s at 3%. Are we really seeing the kind of spectacular boom that the President was talking about? Well, I think we are.  So there's no question the US economy is outperforming the rest of the world. There's been a significant slowdown in the rest of the world. And we've had a significant increase since the Obama economy, creating an abundance, millions of new jobs, created a very significant increase in wages while we're growing GDP. And there's no question this is a result of the President's economic program, which we designed during the campaign of tax cuts, regulatory relief, and trade. And I think particularly this year, now we've had a very big week in both signing the phase one China deal and passing the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. I think these will be very important to the US economy for the balance of this year. Do you think that, I mean, obviously, there was a big lift in boosting growth, almost 3%, 2.9% of growth in 2018. That did seem to be a direct response to the heavy fiscal impulse that came from the big tax cuts passed at the end of 2017. That does seem to have passed, and growth seems to be sort of slipping back in 2019. Estimates around 2.25%, maybe this year around 2%. Did we just get a one-off boost from that huge fiscal impulse, or is this lost? Absolutely not. I would say 2019, again, did well on an absolute basis, was definitely slowed down from, one, the world economy slowing down, so there's no question that China and Europe slowed down pretty dramatically. Also, we had the beginning of the impact of Boeing, the 737 MAX, and we had the GM strike. So there's no question all those issues probably cut about 50 to 70 basis points off of growth last year, and I know we'll hear projections from the IMF and others, but those projections are too low this year for 2020. Gita, let me ask you, do you share the view that the U.S.'s economic performance has been fundamentally transformed? I mean, I think I would agree that, relatively speaking, if you look at advanced economies, the U.S. has been doing quite well. It has many strengths to it. The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low. It has very flexible labor markets, so it's certainly doing extreme bill. But if you want to put a number on what the growth rate is going to be, we have it at 2% for 2020, and we think of it tending towards about one-three-quarter of a percent. I mean, if you remember, 2018, it was 2.9%. 2019, 2.3%. 2%. And an important part from our perspective was the fiscal stimulus that was put in the system. You know, our projection for where we think the U.S.'s heading is driven by our projection for demographics and for productivity growth. Now, of course, those are not... You know, at least productivity growth is not set in stone, and that can be increased. But right now, those are the numbers that we're looking at. Jim Fiddling, if I could turn to you. One of the things that a lot of people have said has perhaps been restraining growth as good as it has been, relatively good as it has been in the last year or two, is concern about trade, about the environment, particularly obviously the dispute with China. That is, at least for now, temporarily resolved. Phase one is done and the U.S. got a lot of concessions, at least, you know, commitments to concessions from China. Is that reasons for perhaps additional optimism about the U.S. economy in 2020 and beyond? Well, I think so. I think some certainty has come back into the marketplace. And if you look at December of 2018, we saw a slowdown globally in the industrial sector in mid-2019. I think mid-2019 everybody was worried about the term recession and people were starting to talk recession. But really, the consumer economy was good. The industrial economy had slowed and there wasn't a lot of investment. So our own PMI and China's PMI had all come down. Now that there's some certainty back in the trade relationship with the U.S. and China, I think you'll see people have a little bit more confidence to invest. I don't think there's a lot to kick in. But I would say that that would bring investment back up.  So automobiles, the aerospace industry, infrastructure, steel, we need those. We need those kicking. Glenn, if I may, Jim raises a number of sectors there and a number of areas of economic activity, where there has been some weakness. One of the most striking weaknesses for the U.S. over the last couple of years is how much of the growth that we've seen has come from a very strong consumer. Now we had these big tax cuts at the end of 2017 which meant a large proportion of which went to a significant corporate tax reform in the form of large corporate tax cuts. We haven't seen any significant, in fact, we've seen a dramatic slowdown in capital spending. Again, how important is the trade picture there and what are the other reasons for that and how might that change? Well, there's two topics here. One is the general evolution of business. And so, over the last really 20 years we've seen business evolve to a much more asset light structure. I mean, the reality is out of the top 10 companies in the Dow, only two of them fully spend their cash flow, the rest of them accumulate it. So overall capital spending relative to cash flow has declined just as business has evolved. And then second of all, and I think it just fits with the decline of trade, which was a global phenomenon. Remember the trade dispute between the United States and China actually spread around the world and in fact it impacted Germany and Japan and South Korea and Singapore much more abruptly than it did the United States. And so, while we've seen manufacturing and industrial output really ebb around the world, capital spending has declined there as well. So I agree, I think we've got a chance with a real thawing of relationships with China and in fact hopefully on a positive note to see positive sentiment pick back up ambition and aspirations in the board room and hopefully we'll see spending pick back up. Secretary Mnuchin, has U.S. growth over the last year or two been held back by concerns about global trade? I don't think so.  We could debate to what extent I think that slowdown was not created by global issues. I think that slowdown was well in advance of trade. But there's no question there was a slowdown and a global slowdown has an impact on global trade. The President once again mentioned today in his remarks that in his view growth would have been stronger if the Federal Reserve had been more accommodating, had not raised rates and so quickly and had cut them more quickly. Do you agree with that? Secretary of Treasury, I'm careful about commenting on Fed policy. It seems a bit puzzling that your boss can criticize the Fed but you choose not to. Absolutely. He's the President. I'm Secretary of the Treasury. So we can expect... So even though you don't think trade has played a role, presumably you think that the Phase 1 trade deal you've got the USMCA that you've got early you did a US South Korea renegotiation you think all of those will actually help to lift growth? That's right. And again, when we talk about growth, GDP is one measure of growth.  So I'm not particularly focused on kind of whether GDP was higher or whether GDP was lower. What I'm focused on is what did it do to employment? What did it do to labor force participation? What did it do to wages? What did it do to consumer spending? What is the forecast going forward? I think there's no question when we look at the forecast for 2020 business in the US feels very good. And there's no question that now the two trade deals we've done will have an impact this year. I would say on the other side again depending on how long it takes for the 737 MAX to get back into production that's going to have an impact on headline GDP. I've already said publicly that could be 50 basis points in GDP. But again I wouldn't focus too much on the GDP number we could have easily hit 3% if the facts had been slightly different. Gita, that's an important point whatever the GDP numbers there have been some very strong as we said at the beginning some very strong and quite unusually strong performance by the US economy. Lowest unemployment rate in 50 years now well below 4%. At the same time inflation essentially quiescent. No sign of inflation. Very significant real wage gains for not only for not only median wage gains but they do seem to be sort of skewed concentrated towards lower paid workers so this phenomenon this phenomenon of income inequality that we've seen has been addressed somewhat. Do you think these are fundamental changes again that's irrespective of what the overall trend rate of growth may be. We are seeing perhaps a difference between the yield of the fruits of economic growth that we've seen in the past. I think there is certainly good news that the recovery came along with increasing wages at the low end of the distribution. But that said I think it's important to point out that the US is in terms of inequality income inequality and wealth inequality is one of the highest among advanced economies and it was not always that way that intergenerational mobility which is whether your kid will have a higher income than you do those probabilities have come down because there's been unequal access to education and to healthcare. So I'm just going to put out there that I think more needs to be done on that front. We're talking about US economy and resilience. We're talking about raising productivity growth in the US that would require a greater education better outcomes on that front and more needs to be done there. And if I may I would also say that the US tax system could be some more progressive. There are some low hanging fruit. There are some very wealthy individuals who can redefine labor income as capital income. This is the carried interest provision that's there in the income tax system. I think that needs to be got rid of. It's just not right for the times and similarly when it comes to taxes there is a windfall to beneficiaries of wealthy individuals. So these are kinds of low hanging fruit that I think need to be addressed so that going forward there is more opportunities spread around not just across people but including across regions. So because if you look at the unemployment rate at three and a half percent for the country as a whole but if you look at the unemployment rate and say in New Mexico or in Mississippi they are significantly higher and those are lagging behind. And I think for the US resilience is very important to bring those regions back up. Before we get on to the issues of resilience can we just explore a little bit what again we all agree here and the numbers are arguable. The US has enjoyed stronger growth over the last decade than indeed longer than that but certainly less focus since the financial crisis over the last 10 years than Europe and obviously Japan you know at least 50 percent higher than European growth rates and twice twice Japan's growth rates. So what are the different factors that are responsible between demographics between structural issues between policy what in your view are the key reasons why the US is though historically may be growing slower than it has is certainly out performing the rest of the world. I have to say if we were all here exactly 10 years ago and we took a poll of hands and said how many people think that the United States is going to be a larger share of GDP in 10 years raise your hand. I very few of the United States is 25 percent of GDP when it was just 23 percent 10 years ago. Why is that? We tend to see four things brought to bear that continue to make us extremely confident investing in the United States. First is the labor markets incredibly skilled robust flexible labor markets with now one of the challenges is finding labor and I think that's one of the things we're going to have to address over the next 10 years is we really do nearly have full employment the second is the robustness of the capital markets. I mean nearly 50 percent of the equity capitalization of the world is on US exchanges there's great formation of capital and as a result when businesses want to grow and see capital they can find it readily available third is the rule of law and I think at the core we have a great judicial system and we understand contracts matter and we can rely on that and I think finally is a culture of innovation I mean the US leads the world in R&D spending and patent filing and while we do in fact have a wonderful bankruptcy code to deal when things don't work we take risks and when you take risks you have a chance to actually take a big step and the aggregation of those four elements tend to result in really strong performance and so as we look across the world there's great places to invest all around the world we're a global investor but we remain very very confident in the dollars we put to work in the United States. Jim and I would add the other one would be energy competitiveness made a big difference and so if you looked at half of all the manufacturing capital that was invested over the last 10 years it was in energy intensive industries so as you're trying to build back a manufacturing industry in the United States those investment dollars had gone elsewhere you had the recipe for success you had tax cuts in there and you get yourself on a more competitive basis and there you go and then I think to the wage disparity issue you know if you look at science technology engineering and math jobs I don't think it's true that the next generation won't be able to make more than the current generation but in some other areas that may be true in science technology engineering and math there are great careers and great opportunities out there and the starting pays are very very good we just aren't graduating enough and we need more we need to encourage kids more to get into those fields when they're in grade school and get them interested in science Secretary the president talked today as others have to about the importance of deregulation and one of the things that your administration has done in the first three years has been significant deregulation in areas like energy or labour markets where as other fields like that what's what's more to be done on that what's wouldn't been achieved there and how has that changed economic performance and what's more to be done let me just comment before I get to this I do want to just emphasize what you said on energy I think the fact that the U.S. is now energy independent that we have an abundance of natural gas cheap energy I think is a very big deal it's a very big deal on a geopolitical basis but it's also a very big deal on an economic basis and one of the reasons why we've had low inflation and I think you'll see very low inflation in the near term on deregulation let me be clear we believe in proper regulation we just don't believe in over regulation and I think this administration has just a different philosophy that big businesses create small businesses that create jobs we want to make sure that businesses are regulated properly but I think you saw the pendulum swing way too far after the financial crisis banking regulation we got to the point where basically regulators were telling regional bankers how to make loans regional bankers know how to make loans that wasn't the problem I think where there's a lot more work to do is on infrastructure the president would love to do a trillion dollar infrastructure program one of the big issues around that is making sure that we can get the permits through the system both at the state and the federal level so I'd say that energy pipelines and infrastructure are big areas where we'll continue to work on deregulation let's talk about energy because obviously as well as being of significant benefit to the US economy I don't think anyone would disagree with that over the last few years there are those in addition to the president today there's a certain 16 year old schoolgirl wandering around who perhaps will not have the same positive view about policies that result in significant additional fracking energy production traditional carbon rich energy production is it possible to achieve the kind of gains that the United States has made in energy self-sufficiency while at the same time at least acknowledging some of the concerns that people have and maybe doing some more to restrain the carbon emissions well I think the US has done a lot and when you look at the Paris agreement we thought it was unfair agreement so there's no question that there are countries that China is one of them that have a lot of work to do in terms of environmental issues India has work to do there's a lot of countries if you look what the US has done in terms of carbon emissions and the progress we've made independently in the markets I think quite frankly it's very impressive so I think there's definitely a shift towards clean energy in the US there's technology that is much more abundant for liquid natural gas and clean things we were talking about before you know I drove a Tesla when I was able to drive a car in California and I like the fact that I had an electric car so people but nobody talks about well how is the electricity generated and then nobody talks about how are those batteries going to be disposed of and what does it do so there's no question we want to have clean air we want to have clean water we think there's a way to do it and be energy independent I think to Secretary Mnuchin's point you can do both you can grow the economy and you can bring the emissions down we've done that natural gas was always meant to be a bridge fuel to a future economy so there's a transition that we were going to go through I think there's a little bit of an argument of how long will that transition be how long does it need to be storage has to be addressed before we can really get to alternatives that are going to be cost efficient so if you went today and you made the move completely to alternatives and you said we're going to not do anything with natural gas you would drive up your electricity costs to the point that you have more wage disparity issues electricity demand would go up like we've seen in Germany 10% increase but there's no nuclear power now I've got to look for alternatives to burn coal to make that energy you get yourself into a set of policies that drive you in the wrong direction and I think what we're trying to do is get ourselves into policies that drive us in the right direction bring those costs down and manageable we can still bring CO2 emissions down it doesn't say we're not going to have a future where alternatives are important but so far for big industry we haven't found an alternative that's cost effective and rapidly developing and very effectively developing cheap, reliable and sources of energy that dramatically improved US energy's self-sufficiency and security do you think that they got the balance economists will think we got the balance right between doing that and contributing to the US economic performance in the last 10 or 15 years and meeting the obligations that everybody thinks we have towards addressing the climate challenge Secretary is right when he pointed out that one of the reasons why inflation has stayed so low for most of the world especially advanced economies is lower energy prices and it's also important to point out that despite the recent tensions in the Middle East there was no big spike in energy prices and this has to do with the resources of supply and those typically were events that would trigger crises around the world and that hasn't happened but that said I don't think one can sit back and wait because in terms of what's happening the consequences of climate risks it's very salient to us at the IMF because we track 189 member countries and there's always several of those who are downgrading because there was a natural disaster this is Japan, this is going to happen in Australia and so it is an economic there's really economic cost to it you know regardless of how you feel about what's going to happen as a company if you are exposed to climate related risks that's going to affect your bottom line just in terms of your financial exposure to it and you have to be prepared for it so I think it's something that countries have to respond to now I mean it could happen organically it could happen in a much more directed way I mean our view is that it should be more directed there should be more infrastructure spending on climate there should be more carbon pricing but I don't think this is a can that can be kicked down the road Glen let's talk about let's come on to this issue of the resilience of the US expansion as I said it's the longest expansion in history ten and a half years old already normally at anything like this stage of an expansion you're starting to see significant imbalances that typically derail an expansion you know rapid wage growth maybe leading to higher inflation forcing the fed to raise interest rates maybe there are significant imbalances the form of financial bubbles there are some issues here about valuations whatever we don't seem to be seeing any of those kind of problems that you normally associate with a very long expansion so first of all why not and secondly what are the risks yeah I think first the economy is quite different today than it was 20 years ago and if we were 20 years ago and we had the manufacturing sector bumping along like it is we might be on the edge of wondering if we were going to slip into a recession but given the strength of the service economy today and the strength of the consumer the US economy is in fine shape and so we have much bigger buoyancy today than we've ever had before and that allows for a sustainable economy I think we are not seeing excesses listen asset prices are high when you're in an environment with you know 2% growth and low interest rates around the world asset prices are naturally going to be high and we don't see this changing we see interest rates staying low for the foreseeable future we see growth being modest although we do think it has a chance to pick back up with the recent progress on the trade agreements and with the brexit resolution but asset prices are going to stay high and I think that's a bit of our new reality and therefore that is an economic backdrop I know you're not in the stock market prediction business but we saw a remarkable run up 30% plus run up in the S&P 520.19 you're thinking though that can be sustained you probably don't expect to see another 30% but you don't see that there's any significant risk of a reversal well the good thing is that what Carlisle gets to do is own businesses for 5 and 10 years and so I don't have to make any annual bets but the short answer is I think the stock market is anticipating exactly what we've been talking about which is the recovery of global trade and therefore the economic growth that will run underneath it and I think a lot of that's going to depend on the productivity of the relationship between the US and China and it seems to be off to a good start I think it was great that in fact the moniker of a currency manipulator was addressed I think the overtures in China of the receptivity to business and the ability to actually invest wholly as opposed to a joint venture all the time is a tremendous step and so I think the stock market ran ahead of the actual economic results in anticipation of this recovery Secretary Mnuchin one imbalance there is that some people have drawn attention to is a remarkably dramatic decline in the fiscal position we've seen a trillion dollar deficit for the US and Canada 19 looks like it's going to be around for a while 5% of GDP I think I'm right in saying that with unemployment at 3.5% after 10 years of growth we've never seen that level of fiscal deficit we are normally by this stage you're building up significant fiscal surpluses and yet no one seems bothered about it the bond market certainly doesn't seem bothered about it we've got 10-year yields still around 180 most economists don't seem to bother about it your rivals in the Democratic Party are planning to do even more and expand the deficit by even more just stop worrying about fiscal deficits well let me make two comments on this first of all I think you have to look at government debt relative to GDP I think where we are now is fine but I think we have to look at over time what's the rate of growth of government spending so I think as I've mentioned you know I'll stay on the record that I think tax cuts will pay for themselves first two years our projections are right along but what we also did is we had increased government spending and the president wanted to have more spending on defense to get that the Democrats wanted spending on non-defense so I think there's no question over the next few years we are going to have to be careful in looking at slowing down the rate of growth of government spending so where is that where is that pressure going to come where are you going to look to restrain fiscal the public spending growth there is I think that I mean first of all we've now made a major investment in our military so I think the rate of growth we don't need to continue at necessarily the same rate of growth we can slow down so I think it's not necessarily cutting it's basically slowing down the rate of growth of government spending and what you're going to see the tax cuts were front-end loaded with automatic depreciation and things that incented people to invest now and you're so I do think that we're going to see revenues begin to pick up and as I said we're right on our projections for the first two years so we do have a situation where by although things are looking pretty set fair for the US economy you do have this very unusual situation where you have very little limited monetary room for maneuver the Fed is already it's cut rates in the last year it's still got 225 limited by historic standards very very limited fiscal room for maneuver should that be a concern for policymakers that should there be a downturn the ability to respond in the traditional ways is significantly attenuated I mean so firstly I would just point out that relatively speaking here again I mean the US central bank certainly has more space than the ECB or the Bank of Japan now the typical recession in the US has gone along with what a 500 basis point cut there's no 500 basis point cut space but what the what the evidence seems to suggest is that forward guidance and quantitative easing and these unconventional tools certainly can give you that extra 200 or 300 basis point but of course there's a limit to how much you can go there because at some point these things can have negative effects so I just want to flag two things fiscal policy will have to play an important role if things were to get you know surprisingly bad and in this particular area the US actually the response on the fiscal side has been slower so if you look at the global financial crises US fiscal response took much longer than pretty much all of the G20 countries did so it might be a time to think more of a kind of a cyclical fiscal rule where you know you have much more automatic spending which comes through either transfers from the federal to the state level or unemployment insurance or public investment projects are in the pipeline so if you can increase the automatic nature of it that would certainly help with resilience I mean at one point one more thing about resilience right now given environment we have a very low interest rates I think one area that we might pause for concern is what's happening with corporate leverage and corporate debt and we've certainly seen that go up a lot and that is clearly in the purview of the secretary Fsock is under you and so that's actually one area where something can be done in terms of right now there is no regulation for corporate debt and it's not necessarily the regulation or oversight which is the more appropriate word but you know there's nothing to panic about at this point but it is something to think of as if it is the case that it's not the problem is no longer the banking sector but corporate leverage is the problem I want to come back to corporate leverage but Jim I just want to quickly ask you about potential constraints to continued growth from a manufacturing perspective more broadly from a whole economy perspective and that is the labour market which we've talked a little bit about we have historically low unemployment rate three and a half percent as we said at the beginning we are starting to see significant wage growth that rising quite significantly the demographics again the United States is in a better position demographically than probably any other major developed country but they're not great immigration and the economy is somewhat restrained the sort of organic demographics are not particularly good how much of a concern of a problem do you face from your perspective with just a very tight labour market so if you look at manufacturing today 25% of the workforce is within five years of being retirement eligible and so there's quite a bit turnover that's coming there are a lot of work being done with apprentice programs in our industry all around the country and apprentice programs to bring veterans back into the workforce are full and they're graduating with 96, 98% placement rates very high quality jobs so we're able to fulfill it I think the other point I would have raised to Glen's point about the economy being so different than it is the digital economy is where it is today 20 years ago we couldn't afford to do things that we can do digitally today and that helps us a lot with productivity it helps us a lot with advanced manufacturing and automation that takes a little pressure off of the manufacturing job now it puts pressure on the tech sector obviously but I think all in all that's a net benefit to the economy and the more that we invest there the more important it is we have to get infrastructure right that would be a big boon we're going to have to do that with government and private funds and if we can do that right and design the infrastructure of the future that could really be a step up in investment in the US I want to let Glen speak too but on the productivity issue despite the huge investments in information technology over the last 20, 30 years all the evidence is that labor productivity is actually weaker than it's been that continues to be one of the great one of the most striking features of the modern US economy could you have a good explanation for that is there an issue going on or do you really think that somehow these investments are not really translating into any product? I think if you're looking at it at a broad US basis you could draw that conclusion but I think if you went down into industries that are investing in new technology and investing in automation you might find differences you might find other industries are still able to make productivity internally we set targets every year to at least do that and that means we have to look at investments and other things to make that happen Secretary, the US economy has been a jobs producing machine for a long time two and a half million jobs a year we've set the unemployment rate very low how much longer can that go on given the inevitable constraints on labor supply? I think there's a lot of things we still need to do talked about apprenticeship programs need to make sure there's better education programs for skilled labor we need to make sure that people who are getting advanced PhDs we can keep them working at our companies I do think the participation rate can continue to go higher I think productivity we can spend a lot of time talking about why productivity is where it is but I think there's upside in productivity and I think the president wants to fix immigration that's part of it so that legal immigration has to ultimately be part of the equation I would just add there's a million more job openings than there are people willing to take those jobs today in the United States and so we're going to figure this out because we have to and when you look at the opportunity to sell a new product or open a new facility or launch a new service and if you don't have the right folks to do it go find out how to do it and you come up with a job training program and you go to the service alumni fairs and you literally business is going to figure this out because we have to the economy is growing there's new job opportunities and we need to fill them let's talk about this corporate debt corporate leverage has dramatically increased in the last 10 years or so as you mentioned FSOC is your responsibility and financial regulation generally have you seen anything at all that gives you concern in terms of this significant growth in debt companies have been buying back a lot of stock taking on a lot of debt in part in order to do that is there anything that gives you any concern there so this is something that we're monitoring very carefully and the short answer is no there's nothing that gives us a level of concern although we'll continue to monitor it but let me just make a couple of comments first of all debt in the regulating banking sector is very reasonable so you know where you have companies that are borrowing whether it's covenant light higher loan to value loans and things like that those have moved outside of the banking sector and a lot of those have gone into CLOs and other private equity form where you have you have long term stable capital so I don't think it's an issue obviously having high debt in certain industries carries certain risks relative to other industries but it is something that we are carefully monitoring and people talk about leverage lending and yes there's more leverage lending but we're comfortable that's not in the regulated banking system and a lot of this boring a lot of this corporate leverage has been on these sort of so-called covenant lights again that doesn't that those those kind of when you don't think we're in any danger of seeing the kind of financial excesses that we saw that led to the subprime crisis in the 2006 I don't I think that was a very different situation again in the mortgage market although you've seen some increase in mortgage lending in certain areas again you don't have anything like what was clearly you know wholesale uh mis-underwriting of mortgage credit Glenn do you on the corporate leverage side I agree with everything that's been said and would add listen there's a prudent level of debt for every company and responsible owners try to find that level of that particularly in our industry um and it has a lot to do with interest rates as well so as interest rates are low companies can afford a little bit more debt and we think interest rates are going to stay low for quite a long time and we think that that balances are pretty are pretty reasonable I do have to say that as asset prices have gone up the amount of equity that goes in has increased substantially and so back when I started my career 25 years ago capital structures may have been 25 percent equity and 75 percent debt and it's routinely 50-50 today and so the equity cushion that's involved in most capitalizations today um is substantial is substantial Jim from your perspective you know I think um on capital intensive industries like ours the market does a pretty good job of regulating that and the credit agencies take a good look at that I can't speak to what's happening in some of the other parts of the market but in our in our space I think we've got pretty good balances in the market already we've got a few minutes left I want two two quick rounds if I may first is I want to ask all of you what do you think the largest risk is and Secretary you're not allowed to say Bernie Sanders if I may say so um but I'll let you so you can say Bernie Sanders if you like um the largest risk is to this continued US expansion so Glenn if I may I'll put you on the spot and start with you yeah I I think it is to it is confidence and I think as long as there's confidence in a regulatory framework and in policies that we can depend upon um because um business is going to be predisposed to assume that that this expansion will die of old age and because because economic expansions don't really cease due to anything else I mean there's excesses and they don't really die of old age and so I think that there's going to be a preconceived expectation that eventually it'll have to come to an end and therefore we'll be looking for it and just like we had earlier this year where there was some concerns um that you know maybe the trade deal wasn't going to get done and then all of a sudden in September we see concerns about recession it was all sentiment driven and not substance driven and I think that's our biggest our biggest concern do you think the trade the phase one deal with China the USMCA getting through Congress Brexit getting done as it were whatever comes of that this year do you think that has significantly and will improve sentiment in US corporates over the next year yes but it does has it gone? the fears of a sort of broader trade by no way gone but a substantial step forward a substantial step forward but it needs to be followed up with the next stage of everything a big risk for the US economy the way I see it one reason we've seen the stabilization recently and in general I think a bit of the glue that's holding the world together are the easy financial conditions the low interest rates countries that are basically not growing able to borrow at incredibly low rates very small spreads so a risk I would describe as something that triggers a change in those conditions particularly because the Fed raises interest rate but because there's a huge increase in risk premium and you could see that occurring for instance if there were a sharp increase in policy uncertainty we saw that whenever there was uncertainty on the trade policy front we saw markets moving around very quickly so if you take a combination of incredible uncertainty on the policy front in the Middle East geopolitical risks social unrest I mean these kinds of issues could be a trigger that suddenly now the market reacts or overreacts financial conditions tighten and then this kind of nice happy balance we are in gets lost Mr. Chairman you don't want to put it perhaps in terms of negative risks than other than Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden and maybe Mike Bloomberg what keeps you awake what are the things that you're very much focused on right now? Good thing is I sleep pretty well at night but I will say and you gave the answer I won't pick which one but I think political risk economy you have two very different visions for the way the economy will be managed and business opportunities so there are some very extreme socialist type of economic programs you got some of the candidates I won't say which one that want to regulate the top 100 US corporations and set up a new agency in the government to do that there's no question you see very different views of banking regulation so I do think in the US there is two very different views of politics that will change economic outlooks dramatically Jim for you Access to global markets and making sure that we build back our ally relationships around the world the US needs global markets to be able to export goods and services and technology and I think part of the biggest kudos to Secretary Mnuchin on the China deal phase one was access to the financial markets access to those markets is very important for us it's not just our industry on a free and a fair basis Final question for all of you very quickly Glenn you noted that expansions don't die of old age the US expansion is more than 10 years old let me ask each of you very quickly what are the chances that we come we're here in 2025 and this expansion is still going absent some material geopolitical issue and I think which we don't expect to happen I think that we will still be in a period of low growth low interest rates and high asset prices in 5 years Lisa like I mentioned we have a projection for 5 years from now which is at 1 and 3 quarters percent but you never forecast the recession to be fair by their nature times are changing there's a new chief economist who knows things can happen that's where we see it there are many risks I would say policy is a big one including related to what happens in the next 12 months in the US I'd say especially the next 2 to 3 years where I think we have very good visibility into the economy and also certain global issues I think we feel very strong about the economy I think the corporate debt is high because there was a lot of investment made in manufacturing and so the next couple of years even if we have low slow growth it's going to absorb that capacity and I think we're going to see an expansion over this next 5 years well there you go ladies and gentlemen economics is supposed to be the dismal science but I think we've left you all with some prospects for the US economy with admittedly some risks that we will see but I think the general belief is that the causes and the roots of this US expansion are pretty solid and that as far as we can see especially with improving international climate perhaps for trade and international economics then the expansion prospects remain pretty good so please join me in thanking our really very distinguished panel thank you thank you


Russia wants to stop Ukrainian offensive at any cost. Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine, Hanomalia, has stated that Russia now wants to stop the Ukrainian offensive at any cost. The task of the Russian Federation now is to stop our offensive at any cost by blowing up dams, mining fields, continuous shelling, sabotage, informational whipping up, and even nuclear rhetoric. This is the maximum task. The minimum task is, if not to stop it, then to significantly complicate and slow down our progress and, in the meantime, prepare their own counter-offensive. Malia posted on Telegram. According to her, for the Russians, the motivation not to lose captured lands will be much stronger than the motivation to capture lands. Because this is their mental primordial trauma, Malia noted, they psychologically tolerate an unsuccessful offensive more easily than the loss of conquered lands. This demoralizes and demotivates them beyond repair. Then they themselves will not gather their army because the fighters will begin to refuse to obey orders en masse as it was in Kharkiv region. So, we must understand this, the Deputy Minister emphasized. She added that it is indeed very difficult for the Ukrainian troops to fight, but they are moving forward, confidently, because we are waging a just war. And this is our strength, Malia emphasized.


The University of North Florida's Archaeology team is now fairly confident that they have located the lost indigenous North-East Florida community of Sarabé, wait till you hear this. Sarabé, a settlement mentioned in both French and Spanish documents dating to the 1560s but had not been discovered until now. The type and amounts of indigenous pottery the team is finding, combined with the type and dates for European artefacts as well as the cartographic map evidence, strongly supports this location as the late 16th, early 17th century MoCama settlement. The researchers have opened large excavation blocks with many exciting new artefacts found and are currently searching for evidence of houses and public architecture. The team are being led by Dr Keith Ashley and have just recently recovered more than 50 pieces of Spanish pottery as well as indigenous pottery that dates to the 1500s or early 1600s and have also recovered bone, stone and shell artefacts as well as remnants of burnt corn in the cobs. Expanding upon the UNF excavations conducted at the southern end of the Big Talbot Island in 1998, 1999 and 2000, the UNF research team has completed what is likely the most extensive excavations in northeast Florida's history. And this dig is part of the UNF Archaeological Lab's ongoing MoCama Archaeological Projects. And this study focuses on a MoCama speaking Timokua Indians who lived on the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida at the time of the European arrivals in 1562. And the MoCama were among the first indigenous populations encountered by European explorers in the 1560s. And the team hopes to ultimately confirm the discovery of Sarabé by finding evidence of houses and public architecture and they will continue to explore and learn about Sarabé's physical layout during continued fieldwork projects over the next three years. What do you guys think of this one anyway? Comments below and thank you for watching.


Usually, I end up not standing on the podium. I have fallen off the podium before because I have the habit of pacing while I present. And pretty much most of the subjects I get excited about and I forget that I'm on a podium. This one is going to be tricky and let me see if I can maneuver this. First of all, thank you media evolution for this opportunity. I speak to industry audiences where when I look around the room like this, about 70, 80% of the people are people I've known before in the last 10, 12 years. I've seen them before. Here, most of you, I just met in the last couple of days, so it's wonderful. Being that it is in the afternoon and our attention span is probably not the same as it was this morning during Ben's talk. With your permission, I have a request. Those that are interested are welcome to stand up for a second and stretch yourself a little bit and hopefully this will help. When Martin said I have 15 minutes to give the stock, I was thinking to myself, if he said I have three hours, this is not a problem. 15 minutes is very hard and following these two guys is even harder because they're talking about future trends, right? I love what they said because I'm a marketing guy and this provides me the input roadmap for our research development team to go build these products. Now, if I brought either of these guys to e-ink and had them present to our technology team, we'll have a few heart attacks because what they talked about is the kind of dreams that we need to have to create new technologies. But if you're responsible for building those darn things, that's a very different story. And I'll explain to you in part of my presentation. I'm going to try and focus on two different things. The first one is going to talk about a certain type of media change. We talk about evolution, right? I'm going to talk about a revolution, something that's already starting and hopefully we'll all take benefit of it. To keep it somewhat narrow rather than talk about transparent screens, the OLED screens, the LEDs on so forth, I'll focus mostly on electronic paper, which is somewhat easy because we pretty much make most of it. This is the kind of product that e-ink makes. We make electronic displays that are typically used in the Amazon Kindle, the Bonson Noble Nook that I have in my hand, whole host of other e-reader type devices. And since I'm one of the officers of the company, unfortunately, I have to present that slide, which basically says don't go trade on our company stock based on what I'm going to tell you because next year I won't be here because I will be fired. Please don't fire me. I can fire myself. I have that talent. This is a movie, Steven Spielberg's movie, Minority Report. I'm sure some of you watched it. So from a few years ago, inspiration for this movie came from e-ink. Spielberg sent his people to e-ink and they saw something that created this movie. Let me see if I can play this for you to give you the context. You can see in this movie they have a piece of paper where the content is changing. You see right there? It looks like a regular sheet of paper except the content is changing. That was the dream behind creating this.  But if I look around this room, today most of you have some kind of electronic device, a lot of tablets, but what we were trying to do was to replace that printed paper. Almost every one of you have more printed paper than you even have electronic devices. When we talk about displays, the number one display in the world is not LCD. It is printed paper. And the fact that you're all using printed paper means this dream has not been realized yet. Why not? It takes a long time and here's why. This writing has been around for a long, long time. We talk about tablets today most probably you're referring to the iPad. In previous days, before iPad and some of the other tablets, tablets meant these clay tablets. That's what was the revolutionary thing 5,000 years ago. Followed by paper that came around 2,000 years ago. And the printed paper that we know of today was invented 500 years ago. And when E-ink formed the company to build this thing, nobody was complaining about paper. Even today, nobody's complaining about paper. Paper is a wonderful thing. So when you go into a market where you're trying to replace something that's been around for 500 years and people love it, it's very hard. I know this because this is my job to see if I can convince people to change. We came up with this technology for electronic paper, what you just saw, about five years ago. In the past, I would say we are almost mimicking paper. Now I'll say this is better than newspaper and better than paperback books. Probably not as good as glossy brochure type paper. We're getting there. This is the concept. But why is it so hard for us to change our reading behavior from books? Why is it so hard? So I've been looking at this for the last four or five years. Here are some things that I found. We love books. I have two shelves of books in my home. I will never get rid of them. It's sentimental. I don't read them. I have books from my engineering school. Gosh, that was a long time ago. But I will never throw them away. We need them. Sorry, it skipped one. They're very resilient. The image on the left, I don't know how well you can see it, is an image of what they imagined the Alexandria Library to be. This was in BC. Not that different from our current library because they had scrolls. We have books, but they were always in some really magnificent, beautiful-looking structure. And then the other image is a homage to having burnt books during the war.  They kind of stick around. They're very resilient. These libraries are magnificent, aren't they? I didn't realize that for the last two, three years, I've been using an image that I didn't realize was from right here in Malma. The image on the left-side bottom corner of my slide is the Malma City Library. And even for those of us who don't live here, I think it's an awesome, beautiful-looking library. And the one in the middle is the Harvard Library, not far from where E. Inc. is. One in the bottom is from Austria. One on the top is a library of Congress and so on and so forth. But what is happening to these libraries? You can do research everywhere except for some pockets like China and India and places like that. In general, in the developed world, libraries are on a decline. There are statistics all over. And show of hands, how many of you went to a library in the last one month? You're terrible. Of those, yes, of those of you that went to a library, how many of you actually borrowed a book? Okay, slightly fewer hands, but still a lot of hands. Now, when I do this kind of survey in different audiences, it's amazing to see how few people go to libraries. Pretty much in the U.S., it'll be half of the number of hands that went up here. I have been surveying libraries now for a few years. I even send my staff to all the libraries in their town so they can go in and see who's using library, why they're using and so on. In the U.S., our libraries are full. People don't borrow books. They're looking for free internet to look for jobs. The number one complaint to the librarians is, we don't have enough computers. Not that we don't have enough books because nobody is touching them. I'm sure it is the same here. Our elementary school kids are researching homework and reference material on the internet. They don't say, hey, I have this new homework. I have to now go to the library and borrow a book. That has changed. And the stat I have here, the 50% of the British population haven't visited a library in a year. Clearly, they're different from the folks here. This is the U.S. trend for reference inquiries in research libraries. And you can see the trend is on a decline. What is fascinating is, at the bottom of that curve, ePaper has still not been invented. So don't blame us. It's a trend that started causing some of these changes. So where does this leave us? So I'll tell you the story about two libraries. So the one on the left, traditional. One on the right is the eReader, similar to what I showed you. So both can have thousands of books. And there are low recurring costs pretty much on both because you can get 2 million free books on Google, for example. A whole bunch of other projects that give you a lot of free stuff. But to build a library, in the U.S., it's roughly 1 million U.S. dollars to build it. Probably another million dollars to populate it with books. I could potentially give you a device like this. Most of these things are about 100 U.S. dollars. And I can put thousands of free books on it. Right here. And pretty much your mama city library can be open in Mumbai or Manila, Munich and other places. Any other cities that start with an M. So then we are sort of redefining, aren't we? When you look at these devices, these are some of the popular eReader devices. Probably true here in Europe as well as elsewhere. They are now all new libraries. For some of the reasons that I explained previously. What's happening is you can actually borrow books from your traditional library through one of these devices. And then these libraries are now beginning to go to school. That's a picture of an actual classroom in Russia where there are electronic devices being deployed. These students have access to a library which is not a couple of blocks away, but it's right there at the desk. They have access to a lot of information. We are not seeing this in the developed world as much. It's amazing where this interest is. An average textbook in the U.S. costs about 80 dollars. Somebody's making money. So there's not a lot of pull. We don't get a lot of pull in Europe either. But you go to India, China, Africa, the amount of interest in creating these kind of electronic technologies is pretty tremendous. So after banging our head for two years trying to convince the education sector in Europe and in the U.S., we just said, we'll go empower the guys who want to be empowered. Those that are hungry. Let me show you an example of what is actually happening there. So let me first give you a quote that comes from a school teacher in Nepal in the foothills of the Himalayas.  But until we have education, we'll always be poor. It's so true, isn't it? World Reader, one of the charitable type organizations created this video. I'll play part of it just to give you an idea of what they're doing. There is very much interest in the e-reader. It's good to help every child in the class, especially in reading. Much afraid, but he did not show it. Very patient, he said. The children are on holiday. Kwame and Ifua are at home. Kwame listened to some music on the radio. Ifua read a book. You can see improvement of speed in less than five months. And there are other examples. I'm not going to go through all of them to keep it in my time slot. But the change this is creating is absolutely amazing. And for us, particularly with these reflective type display technologies, it's wonderful because these kids are taking it outdoors. Now you try to do that with your tablet or mobile phone. It's pretty hard. Every now and then you see somebody seeking shade outside because your phone screen is not readable. That's the kind of things I think we're coming to expect as society from our display technologies. Let me come back to the screen that I showed you earlier. It's not there, right? But I will tell you what is in the lab. I'll show you products. None of these are gimmicks. They are real products that I'm going to show you. But they're not there in the market yet. And to give you an idea, I can literally coat that entire wall with the e-Inx electrophoretic material. I can make that entire wall change images. But why isn't it happening? To cover that wall, it will be several million dollars. That's why it's not happening. So our challenge is to try to convert these technologies, process improvements, get the cost down to a point where it's affordable. Kind of like these devices, when they started, they were 500 US dollars. You can get them for less than 100 bucks and make it much more affordable. Let me show you some of the things that we have actually created. Here is a product that was created with a sheet of plastic. It's a real display. You can see the progress we've made. People often ask, why can't you make a scroll? We can absolutely make a scroll. But scrolls disappeared long time ago before any electronic display came about. There's a reason they're not just practical. But when we actually went and built this, we found some very interesting challenges. We put a touch screen and the very first person that pushed, she had long fingernails and she stuck her finger through the display. Ouch! That's a million dollars right there. It is. These things are very, very expensive to build. We spent 200 million dollars getting this technology to the market. To give you an idea on these devices, we talk about how little time these days it takes time to get something in the market. Five years ago, we were doing a million dollars in revenue in the e-reader space. Last year, we did well over 100 million US dollars in a single month. Pretty much every month, we exceeded a billion dollars last year. That's kind of the growth we've seen in this space. Here's another product we built. For those of you familiar with the Dupont's Tyvek material, it's the material that's used on the sides of homes for protection, that sort of thing. Or on the FedEx or DHL envelope. We can literally code that and make a display out of it. Then what about ordinary paper? We worked with this company, Topon in Japan. They gave us a piece of paper. It's nothing special. We coded that material on the left as a connector to run images on it, which is why I say we can put that on a brick wall and make the same thing. Let me show you something which probably, if Kate Hartman is here, she'll probably think it's wonderful, except I hope she wouldn't have one of her students call us. These things are very expensive for us to ship to students. We actually coded a sheet of fabric, a piece of cloth, and we can make a display out of it. So the reason I'm showing you some of these images are, none of these products are in the market yet. I will show you a product that is in the market just recently released, which I think is pretty cool. But this is the direction it's going. Some of the trends that Venkat talked about, Dan talked about, will all happen. We've already built some of these things in the lab. The science exists, but we don't know how to manufacture it in a cost-effective manner. But we'll get there. I don't know when, but as a marketing person, I make a lot of predictions, and I tend to be wrong at least 50% of the time. So this one I won't predict. But there is one prediction I will make. I think every single school, everywhere in the world, will have electronic books replacing traditional books. Every single place. Exactly when that will happen, I don't know. It's not that easy for the reasons I explained. People make a lot of money in the traditional market today. Traditional books don't make sense anymore. Now, for most of us, we will never give up our traditional books. I don't think, some of us probably will. Kids don't care. They don't see the difference between books and traditional books versus electronic versions of them. So let me give you an example of a product that was just launched fairly recently and also give you a sense for where these technologies are going. So the largest display factory in the world is owned by Sharp. It's the Sakai factory in Japan. Before E-Ink, I was responsible for building a product. It was the largest display in the world. It's a 108-inch diagonal display. It's built on a mother glass about 10 feet by 10 feet. And let me tell you something. You can ship it because it's very thin and you have to pack it on either side. It's like shipping a Toyota truck. Not practical. So they cut it. That's why you don't see 100-inch displays. You see smaller, maybe 65, 70 inches, what they're able to pack.  And the technology that is emerging, which is going to be very fascinating, is when I went to E-Ink, I was very proud that at Sharp, I was part of this world's largest factory. I'm very proud. The E-Ink guy said something very interesting to me. They said, our display is only about that wide or we can go one kilometer long. So let me show you how this is actually made. So this is a real product, the E-Ink display. We make it in a roll-to-roll process. I took a roll. I had my team go close to MIT. We are an MIT spin-off. And this is by the Charles River in Boston. You can see some of the Boston skyline. And we took a forklift, lifted the material up and unfolded. That's a real display. So technically, I can take that display and wrap this room around and I can light it. It's not going to be inexpensive because the display technology exists. The electronic drivers to drive that distance is not easy. A lot of current is required and a lot of technologies need to be improved. That's the direction they're going. So you can imagine the kind of scale. Look at that. It's pretty amazing. And that's not the largest we can make even larger display. Finally, I'll show you a product. We've been talking about dreaming off. Finally, we have it. So this is a latest e-book from a company called Wexler. It uses the E-Ink display. The difference is it's all plastic. So all the displays we've had before, they were made of glass. So today, I'm very happy if there's a volunteer that wants to give me one of your tablets. You can do that. You can do this. Why do you need that?  We don't really drop them that often. I'll tell you somebody that will drop it within five minutes after you give it to them. They're called kids. So I handed over about 300 e-readers to a school district in Massachusetts to get feedback from kids. As we were handing them, they were dropping them. That's when these things become very important. If there are volunteers, I'm happy to take your tablet and drop it. We also have another portion of our company that licenses a technology called FFS where pretty much 80% of all the world's tablet devices uses our technology. So I can guarantee your display on the tablet will break. And that is the beauty of this. This is how far we've gotten. But it is slightly flexible. It's not like paper. Why do we need to have something like paper? Today, you don't sort of read a piece of paper which is kind of floppy. You actually stiffen it and read it. The whole idea is that's a form that paper is available. It doesn't mean it's the most desirable form. Idea is to build something that is shadow proof that there's no glass to break and you can give it to kids. They can treat it just like regular books and take away another disadvantage of electronic technology, but there's a tremendous advantage. In my hands is a library. I can put a few thousand books and give it to a child anywhere in the world and they will have more access than the children that are in Boston or Malmoor somewhere else. That's the beauty of this technology. That's how far we've gotten. Thank you very much.


Hello, and welcome back to The Craft Box. My name is Brenton. Today we are discussing the new walkthrough which will be coming up sometime very soon. As you know, the death walkthrough has concluded for a bit until a new part comes out. New world such as next world into generic name here, not speculating, this is not what the video is about, but we have a new walkthrough and most people would get you to like pick what school I would play, but I've already decided that. What I need you to do is down in the comments below is to bring up a whole bunch of challenges. Now I see this in a live stream a while ago and on discord as well, I don't think I really got my point across. Basically the point of this walkthrough is to challenge me. So for example, let's say I'm in chrysalis, I'm spamming like meteor or like tempest or frog, who knows, who knows, it depends what school I am really. And you don't like that. Well basically you just put down in the comments, Brent I want you to do a challenge where you only use like, for example if I was death, you only use Dr. Vaughn for the whole episode.  Just for fun, because why not. And I possibly could do that. So yeah, I need challenges like that for each area. Each area there is actually, if you wanted to know, there's about 156 areas so that's about exactly, it's actually exactly how many episodes there are or there will be up until the end of Imperia Part 2. So yeah, that's how many challenges we need. It's going to be a lot and I will fail some of them. So if you want me to do it again, that's another thing that you can do, you can just say it again. But now, the fun thing is you guys get to vote for that as well. So each time I start a new recording, or before I start a new recording, probably like a week before, I'll put up a poll in my discord server, link in the description below by the way. Where you can vote for challenges, usually there would probably be about two that I would have picked from the comments of somewhere of either videos or on discord itself. And you can vote between which one you want to see for the next episode. So for example, if I'm in Crocatopia and it's like the final episode of Crocatopia and I type in like no fizzling or bad stuff happens to you or no blades at all, basically you can vote which one you wanted and if that one got the most, that's the one that we do for that episode. So yeah, the other thing about this is that means there's more live streams happening on YouTube. In fact, there will be one for every single end of the world, except for Wizard City because it's slightly difficult because I'm doing the Trident Underwater and also Colossus Boulevard so there's no real ending episode really, because I'm doing that after the story line is finished so it doesn't really make sense. But yeah, basically episode 13, 20, 30, 41, 42, 46, 52, 62, 71, 85, 100, 111, 119, 127, 139, 145 and 156. Did you write that down? I hope you did. They're all going to be live streamed and they will be all happening at the same time a video goes up on normally a Friday American time. So for me, that's 10 am my time New Zealand on a Saturday and it'll be always that time. So if it's like a week where a video is not meant to go up on Friday or Saturday my time, then there won't be a live stream on YouTube that week for one of these episodes. But if there is, that means that's when it will be. Most of these, I'll try and post this walkthrough about once a week, so we'll get through it eventually. It's not meant to be rushed, but it's also not meant to be easy. We're not going to be listening to dialogue just in case you wanted to know. No dialogue, that's what the death walkthrough is for. So if you want dialogue, you'll watch the death walkthrough. If you want me to suffer hard challenges that you choose, you watch this new walkthrough with the new character that I have already made. So just basically there will be no, there's no picking for the first episode because I've already got a good idea and I have to record that basically right after I finish this video. But yeah, leave comments down below or in like the videos of the walkthrough itself of what challenges you want me to do and I will catch you all the next video will be the first episode. So I'll catch you all then and remember craft outside the box.


Don't put your paint on top of the ladder. Oh, no, Justin's car has been towed With our flea market finds in them Good morning. Welcome back to the channel today. We are working in the living room again We have painting we have bookshelves moved out of the way. There's gonna be a lot happening in today's video I actually have McKenna coming over and a little bit as well because she is going to look at my stained glass doors for Me because she actually installed a bunch of doors at her house And she was like why don't I just come over take a look at yours and see if it's something that I Think you could actually achieve on your own or if it's something I think you should hire out for so She's gonna come over shortly, but we are going to it just work on doing a little bit more painting in here There's only one coat on all of these walls so far So I want to get a second coat up so that we can actually see what this color looks like in the room I What happened Don't put your paint on top of the ladder. Oh, no I'm sure paint spilled on them before True you ruined them Absolutely not So the fireplace as you could see the texture looks pretty good like the overall texture However, there is still this like fine texture that you can kind of see here That isn't apparent where we say that it's extremely smooth here And I wanted to try to add some of this fine texture over top because I feel like the overall like large spots of texture That we added really match up the original posturing up here But this does have just as fine fine texture So I'm gonna try to achieve that with some drywall orange peel texture So let's see how that goes and this is the product right here It is wall texture by home max has different adjustment levels so you can do a fine medium or heavy Texture, so I thought this would be a good option Shake this upside down Billy Stray giving a birch a bird poop instead of texture Is it not shucking enough? Okay, figured it out you actually have to twist the yellow part not just the lever on the back At the door that I reglazed she was like which one was it and I was like it's actually It's pretty good, right? Well, and that looks really good now that I you called it out I'm yeah, here's better, but no, it's really really good. Okay McKenna basically is Here because professional at putting in windows doors I well and very professionally means I've done a lot of them. Yes a professional. Yeah So I asked if I could have her professional services and have her come over and just let me know if this is something that I might be able To do myself or if I should hire someone Yeah, so we're gonna take a little gander and let you guys know what we find out We're gonna look at how it's structured and see if I think you said you needed to add some height to yeah So the nice thing is is that the doors are the exact thickness as the doors that are in there Which I think is probably like one of them really important Elements like the thickness are the exact of the same and the width is exactly the same The only thing different is this one's like two inches shorter So I think we just need to add some height to the door. This is literally the best scenario. Yeah, that's what I thought so too so Yeah, that's yeah, those are beefy those are beefy hinges and see how thick that one is yeah No, you you would mean and these are also like crazy doors. Yeah, so this is like this is a heavy door Yeah, so I don't think we need hinges like that. Yeah So I think if we were to just get normal hinges that fit in this exact groove here exactly And then so you'll just put them on the door in the same spot. Yeah, exactly That's so that they go in we'll take this one off bring it to the hardware store and then just try to find Yes, literally what matches this I'm holding on to it for dear life because I just Yeah, that is crazy that it's the exact same height. It's the exact same width. Oh hi. Yeah, with yeah A weather stripping here or here so that it kind of closes the gap So it doesn't have a draft and things they make a router for that. They do. Yeah Uh-huh. They make they make a little template that you can put on there and you drew you screw in and it gives you a guide Oh, if you if I would have brought it for you from Texas Yeah, I will The paint color to almost be like a little cooler because I want it to feel super warm when it's in yeah glasses in Yeah, this paint color is really beautiful old. Why it is. Yeah Well because the other one you were picking from was more yellow. Yes string Yeah, I'm gonna do that one actually in the breakfast. Nook. Oh Yeah It's gonna be very ketchup mustard, but like kind of she But kind of she it's appropriate for a Breakfast, right? Oh, it is lunch no Look at what we got for the living room I hope that you guys can see this but it is a humongous very very substantial art easel because I want to put the TV on The easel I was going to actually do it on the fireplace when I first started kind of like renovating the living room But then after I remove the mantle the fireplace is just so good as is I can't put anything on it So we actually found this incredible art easel Justin found it at an estate sale It was Tony duquette's estate sale. He's like the one that He's like the one that basically like invented maximalism He's like the king of maximalism and he died 25 years ago And he passed his business and his house on to his assistant and his assistant put a bunch of stuff in storage And then so it was a mixture of a state sale of his assistant and his stuff It rolls like I'll give you guys like a full little pan of it But it's so pretty the colors great and I think it was like 160 at the estate sale Which is not too bad for like an easel this size We finished painting this room last night and this morning. I honestly didn't film any more of it But it is finally done I am so excited to share with you guys like you finish like kind of sweep of the room with the color in it I do want to get the sconces hung for this archway here just so I could see them on top of our painted wall I am so excited to hang those up. I have a furniture piece from olive atelier Which I also have a very exciting announcement for you guys in this video very shortly So stay tuned, but let's go ahead and get those sconces up These are the sconces which if you have yet to see I got these at old good things And they are from Belgium from a castle or I don't know if they're from a castle I keep saying that they just look like they're from a castle because like where else would this sconce be located These sconces are gonna be going up here But the only way to actually put them on the wall is to just use these two large holes that are in the top These are also extremely heavy So what I found at Nikki Keeho when I was shopping a couple weeks back were these forged nails And I thought why not hang them up on the wall with these nails because I feel like if we kind of drive them downwards It hopefully will hold them. So we're gonna give these a go I think these were four dollars a piece and I got four of them so two for each sconce Furniture piece for the living room. I have to finish putting the drawers in it But it is so beautiful. Look at the bottom detail. It's really long and seven drawers in length two in height So it's 14 drawers in this storage unit piece It's so pretty it fits Perfectly right there to right in the side. I've shared this with you guys once before the feed-in wax Look at how insane this works on furniture Morning everyone. Look where I am hosting a drop at all of atelier Which is so exciting Kendall asked me if I would be willing to host a drop and I was like absolutely I am so excited about this. You guys know that I love all of atelier And if you have yet to go I would highly highly suggest coming to my drop because I'll be able to meet you guys in person This is my first time doing anything like this. So I am actually going to be designing curating Setting up this entire place. They literally cleared it out for me And I am ready so I'm gonna bring you guys along on the journey Really want to offer Branches at this drop like big styling branches So Justin and I are literally gonna go look for tree tremors before the drop and get all their tree trimmings It's been a few hours since I checked in with you guys and we have a good majority of our large pieces Placed throughout the atelier and I thought I'd give you a little tour of the sections So this is Camp Lone Fox over here We have our lovely curvy vintage Ikea chairs willy-goal planter, which is like makeshift fire pit We have some wooden railroad ties as little kind of seats as well Some larger shelving over here for some of the pottery These really cute little chairs that we found that are corners So in here is where you enter through the atelier and so right over here I'm wanting to do kind of like an LF x o a sign Kind of like a little photo moment So if anyone comes we could take a photo over here I thought that would be cute out of the tree over there This is kind of like our dining area Dining kitchen area, but we are gonna be actually creating like a full Kind of like old primitive kitchen in here gonna be doing an island. I'm really excited about that We're installing a door in the corner For a little fire pit area. We need some height back here. So we got this lovely jaw This is going to be our little pot rack above the island in the kitchen Lots of baguettes That's a good loaf. Look at this one Smells good. This is my second time coming here. I'm meeting up with McKenna in just a bit But I thought I'd come and check some things out since we are working on the living room I am just looking for some decor elements because we have quite a few shelves to fill up in the living room as it is Now there's also some weird ticking clock thingy going on. A metronome Look how pretty the colors are in this painting. This is a fun one So cute with the paintbrushes in it. The face is so pretty I wonder if we can like merge the footage, you know Look who I found It's Romeo and McKenna Look how incredible this candle holder is He says it's late 1700s where this would hold the reed and then they'd light the candle and put the reed back in I think it's so pretty and also this fireplace screen It's so beautiful Cute I like this one Look how beautiful this painting is it is so subtle and soft. It's hard to share because the lighting is a little strange in here So just I don't know something about it. It's really pretty This face that I just got a studio base. It has like People on it on the top of that. I've never seen anything like that. It's made out of ceramic And this Aphrodite That's Venus tomorrow. Oh, sorry Venus Wooden Venus burglars vibes Did you find anything? Oh? How much were they? No way They're so good. These are so pretty An architect. Oh my gosh That is anti Love bite How stunning this copper kettle is it's like heavy weight to I Have been finding some good items a couple things for my own house if you can see for the vintage drop I'm feeling pretty good. I kind of needs this Look like it's a little girl box with a candles Victorian. I Know it's so cool. It's a quality piece That's happy What's in there coasters What's up the artist a little desk going out with same glass I'm leaving McKenna, but not for long now we're filming a podcast later Podcast channel with my own two hands would you're gonna have to be watching when when you go watch and listen it'll go up To I don't know. We'll put in the date. We'll put in the date on the screen right about here Justin and I just finished up the flea market Justin's car has been towed With our flea market finds in them. No Can't believe it We're in a nearly we just went to go drop off something I found something for my friend at the antique when we were just at the flea market And we just drove by to drop it off went inside for literally 10 minutes Came outside cars gone gone also like it's a completely empty. Yeah, you guys like look It was towed from this parking lot where there's like like who even call it just like It's so confusing I don't know we're at the tow place. I need my vintage items I would like to inform you guys that it was towed at 330 and we got outside at 331 I texted my friend at 331 saying it was towed The bathroom did this my vintage items better be in here my car's still here. Let's see Okay, this is the one that I was most worried about I was kind of scared. Yeah, I was unlocked I was kind of scared about this one because it was just sitting here And I was just scared the towing people really towed it and broke it It's been a few days since I installed the olive atelier warehouse It is currently Tuesday and just a couple of days on Saturday Is it the drop that I am doing with them at 10 a.m. At their downtown Los Angeles warehouse space? So I will put all the information at the top of the description box below for you guys if you were curious Or if you want any more info I'm gonna give you an entire walkthrough of the atelier and share with you everything that we did and all of The decor that we put out and how everything is styled and just give you a look at it So when you walk in this is the first view you see of the entire atelier Which looks insane. It is so massive in here So there is quite a bit to go through but I want to do it quickly so I could share it with you guys Over here. I wanted to do like a little console area We're gonna be hanging up a sign right about here, which I still have to create haven't done that yet But that's gonna go there We have some benches and then this table here has some of my favorite stone trays These are Indian stone trays I love all the different colors and I wanted this to kind of be like an eye spy book where there's like a Billion different trays and you can just like pick the color and shape that you liked and then behind that is the stool section Now these are all vintage and antique French stools And I really wanted to showcase them on this incredible shelving unit So we added those with some Turkish pots and some paper mache bowls in there And then just kind of placed throughout are some of the larger pots as well So we did little clusters of those we have these incredible bar stools here There's a lot you guys and over here is the vintage Ikea Little I don't even know camping section.  I love this area. So as we move our way to the left This is our bathroom section here and it looks so good You guys know that one of the first things actually the first thing I ever got from all of atelier was a stone sink It looked very similar to this one right here. These are the ones available I grabbed a bunch of the kind of scallopy wavy edges because I love those this double sink is Unreal and then a lot of vintage glass of vessels stone mortars and just like little bathroom-y style accessories in there This is a full dining table setup It had a complete Arrangement of chairs which have all been sold since putting them there So we have some benches currently and then some candle holders just a bunch of really beautiful wooden Accessories right over here is going to be our branch bar section. So where there's going to be branches I'm gonna go foraging on Friday for some branches for you guys so that we could style them in the pots And I just love that idea so much and I also love this piece that we sourced. It is such a cool butcher block I want someone to turn this into a vanity so badly I think that would be beautiful And then this is our primitive at kitchen Which is one of my favorite setups that we did and it's probably the one that I'm sharing with you guys last Because we hung this ladder Above what I am calling our island We have this bakery rack here with all the different breadboards and papier-mache bowls and confit jars and there's just so much Stuff and the last section is just right over here in this section Honestly just kind of encompasses a lot of my favorites from all of atelier I really wanted to have this area be kind of like Drew's favorites So I have my marble bowls the little wooden pedestals pinch neck pots these stunning stunning marble trays that come in different colors And these are my new favorite item the stone candle holders How beautiful are those and then right back at the beginning we have some more furniture pieces look out beautiful These are you guys we found these for the drop as well I'm so excited for you to come out and see all of this incredible vintage and antique decor in person Shop it hang out. It's going to be a really really fun time So I will see you guys this Saturday at 10 a.m I'll put any information in the description box below and it's gonna be a fun time


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