At the center of digital enterprise, my partner and other co-director Rod Broody is right here. We are lucky to have Phil Williams today. Well, not taking a very long introduction, Phil is an expert in blockchain. And the plan is Phil will talk about blockchain and other solutions they are providing at Centrality from 530 to 615. And then we will open the floor for Q&A. And then after that, we'll see how it goes. Thank you. Welcome. Thank you, Adam. Actually, Centrality does a lot of things. A lot of things, a very wide range of things. And mobility is one of them. And tonight, I'm going to be spending less time talking about blockchain and the technology behind it because I think that's actually a little bit less interesting. And some of the big forces that are happening out in the mobility space because they are what is defining how we are approaching this problem, putting it into a global context. The world is, it's a pretty crowded place and it's getting even more crowded. And one of the reasons we create blockchain decentralized technologies is that as the world gets more crowded, a mindset of sharing becomes vastly more important. The question, do I believe that business and life is a zero sum game or do I believe that we all have a shared project that we contribute to that we get the benefits from? And if you think that's a bit of a cosmic way to start a business talk, well, we are a little bit like that. We do believe that the technologies we use will make a huge difference to the way we succeed in that shared project. Mobility is a massive global market and it is serving a crucial role in society and economy. And you're probably not thinking about it day to day unless you're driving up the southern motorway in which case you're thinking about it a lot, particularly as you're stuck in that big traffic jam that gets there every day. But the private motor car, it has an incredible role in our industry and it's one of our greatest inventions. It's the thing that probably defined, the technology that defined the 20th century more than any other and it's got some pretty good competition in that area so it's been claimed but it changed the experiences we can have, it changed the jobs that we get and it changed how we design our cities and countries. It's also a pretty selfish technology. It's got amazing comfort and convenience, but that comfort and convenience comes at a shared cost and in terms of the jobs to be done, that comfort and convenience meant it ate all of the demand for private transport trucks from about 1930 onwards. You don't need to be a transport economist or even this person to understand that you just need to look out the window. And there's a cost to our communities. Of course, it's extended the distance we know from centres so we built wider cities. It leads to super-community which lead to the disintegration of some of our community connections and people are less happy because of the car. They also have had a lot more opportunity and a lot more wealth so all these things balance. So when we talk about the future of mobility, the spoiler here is the car isn't going anywhere. It is here to stay. But how we manage it and the roles and the other parts of the system are going to play are what is really interesting. And we have to change the way that we approach mobility because we can't build our way out of Rimbock. I think you will be aware that cities are really struggling with how they do with mobility and with infrastructure. So what do we actually want from our mobility future? Well, if you ask people, they will tell you they want these things. They want options for the kinds of transport we need, for our task when we need it. They want equitable systems that reward lower use of shared resources. Roads being one in our ability because they are very shared and we don't pay any cost for them. Other infrastructure is not conformed to those particular type of cash. They want their time. They want to be given back to them because congestion eats a lot of it and it doesn't make them happy. And we want health for our people, our cities and our environment. So we are going to break this into three sections. We are going to talk about a bunch of big forces here. Micromobility is one that you have seen zipping around the streets recently. That is going to impact the way we move in cities. We are going to talk about autonomy and electrification. I am not going to talk about that for a long time because you have all heard a lot about autonomous cars and you have probably absorbed a lot of the data on it as well. So I will touch on some of it. Digital infrastructure and maths. This is where what we are doing really comes into play. It is the part that I am personally passionate about. It is where we can make the biggest difference at the lowest cost for the most people. A couple of things we won't cover. I am not going to talk much about public transport which might be weird. But there is a whole realm in and of itself. It is fantastic. We need to connect with public transport. We should all do more of it. Just take that as a given. If you think I am ignoring it, just know I am a huge fan. Micro-mobility. Starting here. So what is it? It is not just those line scooters that you see crashing into people on the sidewalks of Queen Street. It is urban transport and electrically powered vehicles under 500 kilos. That includes things like how you meet so many cats. We are not going to talk about those much because they are a little bit of a weird one. They will have a role to play but until they actually get out of the lanes of traffic, they are not going to make a big change. Scooters are pretty awesome. They have got an interesting economic impact. That is probably the fastest, in fact, I think. The data says that it is that fastest growing mobility business in the history of transportation. What they do is they grab short, across-the-seat e-genies that used to go to cars, taxis in particular, and they extend the range of walking genies. So they actually induce demand for transport services that would have otherwise been in active mode and done free selection, increasing the size of their own market as well.  They are going to be the real game changer because they solve, before the effort barrier, there is no more pushing to get up hills. You don't rely on that sweet which is what no-one likes. It is the fastest way to get across down, actually statistically, and we will look at the numbers in a minute. You can park it anywhere and it returns your time flexibility. If you have got a commuter at the moment and it forces you onto the open harbour bridge, you have to leave 5.30 to come in from God knows where. You can get that time flexibility back. So a few caveats there. Micro-mobility is the suitable for all types of journeys. Cars do an interesting and fantastic job because there is so general purpose they get us there in any conditions. But we will talk about some of those caveats as we go through the day. So that is the proposition. And there are three factors that we need to think about when we try and analyse what actual impact micro-mobility will have. The obvious ones are the distance and the job we want micro-mobility to do. The speed and the time it is going to take and course the cost. And a quick nod to Horace E.U. and New Zealand's own Oliver Bruce who is the Micro-mobility podcast. This data is there so let's break it down. Starting with the distance. This is the US data for private car trips and politics is pretty hard to read. But when we look at all of the data for travel for private travel it invariably conforms to the normal distribution. All of the trips are pushed up into the short trip zone. And that is not surprising at all. We all spend more time going down to the supermarket than we do driving to Wellington. So many of the car miles we take could be taken on an e-bike. In fact about half of Horace likes to break it down at a 15 mile mark. I'd pull it up back a little further and say 15k is probably a more realistic target range. But about half of these trips that people take and this is a big, big, big US dollar centre under that mark so you can see that the distance factor once you get on the e-bike is not going to be an issue. And if we look at other modes, obviously much of that but the average of subway bus, other transport in US and UK data the median is within a regular biking range. So put another way, any of those modes if you chop it all down the middle that still comes within the range of a standard bike let alone an e-bike. So distance is not going to be the issue. Speed, speed comparison. There's great data from New York where they've got a ton of information about how fast things move on urban services. This is the question, can I get there at the time that's workable? And that's one of the two big things if of course being the other one that's stopping people from getting on bikes at the moment. New York City taxi on a two-mile trip moves 7km per hour. It's slow as and if you've tried to take a taxi from Shortland Street to the Viaduct you've had a similar experience. Probably slower. A New York City bike, just a push bike goes 13km per hour. An e-bike can go 30km per hour but let's just say per hour per minute so you could get 20 out of it if you had some lanes. So in dense urban environments no surprise at all that bikes are faster than cars. And just taking those two distance and time things and putting them together in our local context we can start to see how much of Auckland there's open up when you start talking about electric bikes. That's what the equation looks like the dotted line that is out at 20km per hour travel mark that's an hour each way a lot of people already drive that. And the more important the 10km line there is a 30 minute each way which is a no brainer so if you're on an e-bike you can get there in under half an hour. And that would rely on us having more lanes to do that in our context and this is a challenge for cities around the world is how much should they take away what should they change in terms of the surface usage to get people onto these modes. We're not joined up yet there's some great plans that bike Auckland have done and they're working with the NZT8 and AT to consistently improve that. So the last one I'm thinking people switching on to micro mobility is it going to be cheaper and the answer is well absolutely the graph here again shows purchase services in New York so this is not prior to cost of ownership stuff although we can infer the first mile in a taxi costs 12 bucks on a sheer knowledge of bike it's a dollar, on an e-bike it's $3 and that's going to keep falling. For privately owned vehicles competition you've got 30 cent reduction per mile there for a car and there will be cents for an e-bike and the market so that's great we've got these we've got these new tools we've got the option for people to use them it's significant that we can plan for them but are we going to get a market driving this and the answer is yes because the market is so big if we look at the revenue markets associated with travel in the US again these are Horace's big numbers and he's been quite optimistic he's saying that below 15 miles is $1.4 trillion now that's right on bike micro mobility can't address all of those rights so let's just have it and say that that's tricks that are down in the rain or at night or other places and we still have over $500 billion market we can have it again and say well actually these whole geographies that are cities that are really hot in the summer or covered in the snow in the winter and we still have a $300 billion market so just the sheer numbers being that this is going to be back so a little bit of a summary for this section the cost per mile is low it's going to be lower the market is huge and it's going to ease a bunch of adults that we will spend on cars at the moment and we spend a lot the electric potential by itself is the two biggest barriers which is for the effort to speak and it all adds up to a big opportunity to reduce congestion autonomy and electric passion this is our second theme these two forces bundle together and they are kind of acting in tandem at the moment with cars they this car world that we have these are going to be the two big things that are coming up so electrification can help decarbonise our transport equipment and that would be a very, very big win and autonomy does a ton of things again this will be familiar to most of you if you can get us our roads and get us our time back and there is a bit of a back here there will be big downsides to these technologies particularly autonomy the introduction doesn't have a lot of downsides provided we make our electricity with wind and solar and on coal but if they are not managed these two forces could make autonomous electric vehicles could make life in our city very, very difficult video from a very smart woman Robin Chase who is the CEO of Zipcar and she sums this up so well that I thought I would just let her do it so hopefully this will play with sound but it hasn't oh dear this is where we really should have checked shouldn't we self-driving cars could make cities more livable, sustainable, equitable and just fully automated self-driving cars are available for sale in cities by 2020 they have very different economics than our current cars and so won't fit in well with today's rules of play I see two distinct possibilities for our automated car future heaven or hell, we get to choose forward-thinking leadership is going to make all the difference we get hell by taking a win-see approach in this future people buy AVAs instead of today's cars for trips, once you get your destination instead of paying for parking downtown it'll be cheaper to have your NTAVs circle the block or drive back home the same is true for stores it could be cheaper to have a drugstore car drive to customers than to pay for retail space downtown today 75% of all cars on the road have one occupant, the driver in the future as we add more cars operating with their different economics 50% of the cars will have no people in them running low value errands or avoiding parking meanwhile all the taxi bus, shuttle and truck drivers will lose their jobs will also lose about 60% of our tax revenue that finises road infrastructure because AVs are electric don't park and don't get parking tickets our roads and bridges get a whole lot worse we definitely don't want the hell scenario we get heaven by taking a proactive approach over a million people in U.S. cities are already car sharing and in San Francisco 50% of people using ride hailing apps now share their trips with another passenger who is a stranger instead of spending $9000 a year on your own car when we combine car sharing and ride hailing and buy a seat in a shared autonomous vehicle we can get door to door transport at the speed of private car travel for the cost of a subway ticket this transforms people's access to opportunity car sharing eliminates the need for parking ride sharing reduces congestion we will only need 10% of the cars we have in cities today even at peak times no more Austrian parking no more parking garages if most of the AVs and cities are shared cars in which people can share trips we can I'm going to cut her off there the rest of the video is great but it digresses into what she'd like to see for the cities but with an idea saying that this is all thinking about personal mobility this is not the type that we move freight is actually going to be its own beast and autonomy and electrification are going to have an easier time in that market for any reasons because the person is not at the centre of the equation so while in that summary from Robin there that the 2020 thing that she talks about needs a little bit of expansion so yes we will have autonomous electric vehicles on the road in 2020 but the more important question is when are we going to feel the main impact from that and the answer comes from a couple of different divorces which are described here the electrification side of things really is dependent on battery price I think the current price of a Tesla Model 3 battery is about $190 per kilowatt hour and it needs to get down into that blue band this is kind of $175 $160 range for it to be cheaper than a petrol car at construction and so that's going to happen at about 2025 and then of course it's going to take a little bit of time for that to really fly out into the market so you've got our friends at JPMorgan there have said that most new sales will be electric by 2030 and at the same time you've got autonomy coming along autonomy is a little easier because it relies mostly on software and a lot of the technology that we have to provide autonomy in cars that are tech it's combinations of existing tech that have been bundled together so that's not a hard rate limit it's not like battery density is so we're going to get autonomy particularly in this pure research saying they hold everyone who's working in the field and they are everyone so average of the guesses is 2027 so again we're talking about this 2030 time for when we really are going to see the big impacts from these so again, talking about private vehicles everyone's going to want an autonomous electric car because it solves all of your personal transport problems with existing infrastructure without asking you to change your behaviour call this the might-fosking effect we'd like to think there's only one of them but there are in fact there's a little bit of might-fosking in all of us and we all like to jump in our car at the convenient time and it doesn't just come down to behaviour change from the individual side we had to think about behaviour change for automakers because they've got these very big engines that are set up to produce and sell cars to individuals and they're not going to while there are big tires in the market that are starting to emerge you've got a number of other OEM coming ventures with right year at a time so individuals are really not ready to get up the freedom of their private car and our political systems are not braver to mandate it at the moment it's hard to pass a brave policy early when you don't have a whole lot of data and we're still measuring basic things about how we use roads and that's something we need to do programmatically and in fact we'll start getting into that individual about what we're doing so we need to set a path to this shared fleet of vision that works for cities without stepping too hard on private rights so zooming out a little there's two big problems and a couple of issues here which we want to sort of dig in a little bit and see how AEBs affect or will be affected or can affect them so when we're talking about down on the single occupancy at the moment we deal with that with buses and trains and we also deal with that privately with T2 lines high occupancy vehicle lines with cyclical pips we use congestion pricing but legacy congestion pricing is a very, very blood tool and we don't even have it in New Zealand so that one's not helping us out much we need better solutions for that and both of these problems could be made worse by autoing because of that personal behaviour that we're not necessarily going to get at the end of it to either of these so solution inside sharing and pooling AEBs solves for occupancy there's course for optimism here this is a chart which was published in The Economist it's from Morgan Stanley saying that by 2030 around 16% of our fleet is going to be total on-road fleet shared vehicles now that's a good start but it really needs to be shared shared which is shared and pooled not just shared available like in other fleets at the moment and because we live in a modern society sharing needs to be cheaper and more convenient than running a vehicle in an urban area for it to really get going and there's a further downside here which is that convenience is negatively impacted by private traffic and the additional traffic that sharing generates and New York is experiencing this right now they've just put a cap on the number of Ubers a bit late in the game but they've already reckoned that there's been a measurable slowdown in traffic speeds in New York as a result of the number of shared powers specifically Ubers I think there's some crazy number of people operating in New York City at the moment if we want sharing to work we need to prioritise road space for shared and pooled vehicles at the moment mentioned before the higher conceived vehicle lanes has one solution the bad news is the data shows that they don't work they are great if you already were getting into a car with your significant other because you get there faster but they don't actually pool anyone get anyone to go around and knock on the door and say hey I'd like to go and get there faster they don't change behaviour so the good news though is that shared fleets and pooling can go hand in hand because behaviour behaviourally you're much more likely to accept a pooled ride or be into sharing your car with a stranger but that's not your car in the first place and that makes sense right like if you've ordered a loop of pool or a lift line or one of these other pooled services in the US you're expecting someone else to pick that not having to make a decision about how to do a drive wrap across this house and grab a stranger and that psychological change is crucial and it's the biggest reason why we should start altering our infrastructure or preferencing infrastructure to support and we need to ensure that shared vehicles actually do pool and for that we need digital infrastructure looking at the second issue better pricing is the best solution for smoothing pigs pricing incentives and incentivising people to have their conversation about whether they can be flexible with their work time or change their travel plans and it needs to account for these things here so for easy like the time that we're traveling some are least easy local road conditions what's actually happening on the ground at the moment and this is something cities are really interested in and it sounds quite simple you know how you've got road lines on Google right so it must be kind of easy but it's actually really hard and it's really, really data intensive and we don't have good systems at the moment to take action based on it and the last one is occupancy price occupancy how do you tow for two or three people in a car how do you tow a car with a single driver more than one or four people in it that's impossible currently but we can do it with better digital infrastructure and while this is a really hard problem it's also a big opportunity because cities and societies don't solve hard problems unless they've got a real pointy stick that is plotting them and we've got a pointy stick which will allow fuel revenue or tax revenue by about 2040 so yeah there's going to have to be some legislation and there's nothing like losing a ton of tax money that will get politicians off their sites and you know, Gantry's only going to be going to say it's got to be a digital solution for that one so a bit of a summary if we do nothing we probably get Robyn's scenario that would be pretty stank because then we wouldn't get all our streets going to get to Termin into Pax that sounds kind of cool and if we do these things by 2030 we have a good shot in another scenario and it really all hinges on the digital infrastructure piece which leads to the last segment here and if you haven't taken the coal yet I think that's the last time there will show up so quickly take this take a photo of it so you can write it down then I can roll on digital infrastructure so what we're talking about is to say that these are the systems we need to create to manage our changing mobility environment mobility as a service is the concept that rather than owning cars we'll be able to purchase a subscription based on our mobility needs and that dream of the end to end transport as a service is pretty cool like the Devonport you want to get to work but at the top of Queen Street one click choose where you need to go and a shared car comes around the Pax, it delivers you to the ferry you've got the same ticket you walk on to the ferry and while you're on the ferry the clouds park because this is Auckland four seasons in one day and it says it was going to have power pick you up with the other end but instead it says actually would you like to swap it out so of course I'm not scared so I choose that option so end to end seamless training on multiple modes and you might have a subscription for that but what we're going to talk about here most is the digital infrastructure so if we get that right then that actually is what enables those mobility to see the solutions at the moment very hard to stitch together without a good digital so any of you who have worked commercially in the studied technology industries that have any sort know that market federated systems are tough if we rely on existing market players in mobility to write software that talks to each other and take a hands-off approach and just say hey you know there's standards over there you'll need to withdraw rates and share data and if it doesn't work it works really really badly it's slow, it's prone to reports and it combines the worst parts of of corporate monopoly depends with the hands-offing of government and if ever you needed an example of a bad federated market, the data that's in the healthcare which in the US is in total crisis and in New Zealand even getting your data from GP to the hospital is terrible so if we think it's going to work in mobility we're mistaken in a market federated approach privacy is in major, major concern there are data silos everywhere there are multiple copies of individual data with every federated provider so the possibility of breaches is huge one of the other features we might end up with is the private monopoly scenario this is what Uber wants to be they've been quite open about the fact that they would like to just bungle up your public transport and Dara's going to give you your end-to-end smooth trip that I had just described wouldn't that be wonderful they've even gone around in some US towns and started these pilots where they said hey we just closed down your buses seriously we've got this, we've got this we just send out Ubers and we'll sit up shut there at the moment that's going to be a bad lead it's getting really bad lead privacy is concerning in this one in a different way that might be more secure ironically in one central place, at least through the security consultants will be great sure they'll be highly paid but we're beholden to another data beaten off like Facebook and Google and I think we're learning a little bit about the fact that we don't want those particular types of data in the novelist and right now we're kind of on track from the data in digital infrastructure direction for a shady hybrid of these first two I would say that would be the most likely on parent policy senates but there is a third option that we should aim for and that's an open system that respects regulation it's not run by governments because they're not typically good at running big digital systems for their citizens but it needs to be started and supported by government and particularly by cities who have the most to gain and the biggest problems to solve and the important thing about an open network is that the network effect is shared and that is going to be a game changer for us so thankfully we get centrality and not alone in this thinking there's a smart woman up here Celica Reynolds she is a very very influential transporter from LA and you've read them so I won't repeat them but basically she's saying hey we've got to do this on a speed of digital we can't do it on a speed of concrete and she also believes that we need a Linux operating system for the city mobility she wants to see hundreds of cities around the world using the kind of open platform that we are posing and to all share from each other's experiences and benefit and that's a great vision because newsflash cities are broke a lot of cities are really really broke ours are not too bad they're somewhere in the middle in the future most U.S. cities are broken, some of them are broken Europe is in much better shape they've typically got a better money to spend and then you've got your outperformance like China and Singapore big cities in China in Dubai and UAE you can spend whatever they like but generally if you want a big solution and you want them to be broadly extended across large parts of the world so another issue with federated markets is that the private market is hugely fragmented in mobility services and that's for everyone that's not Uber so in Barcelona which is where our partner, Bayamol who is developing the protocol we're working on there are 52 different mobility acts and a different act can still work fine for everyone and competition is good but that's not the right kind of competition the kind of competition you want is where you compete for a price on service on a good quality not on just network acquisition in a low building that's actually everyone doing the same work over and over again and you can't easily connect them together for mass services you've got to go around stitching up those which again leads to the survival of the person and only the big players would survive so what does this mythical open mobility network look like looks a little bit like this there's two pieces of software that primarily we absolutely have to have to create this kind of system one is a hub that takes all of the inventory into the city whether that's public transport or private private mobility operators and eventually private cars and they all attest into this city hub and they're available broadcast their availability in there and they can be pulled together into a service by an application layer and so the second the second piece of open source software that we're building is a white label app and that's like a super Uber app that actually takes all of the modal transport and there's not actually a really good modal front-end application out there in the market at the moment unfortunately but we'll build one and a system like that this has to be open sourced so cities who have their own transit app at the moment maybe the AT app on your phone Portland can pick it up Los Angeles can pick it up and they can just take that app and rebrand it and those services could be offered through as with any good tech marketplace because the top layer the app layer is open source there's competition at that level and that's competing at the app and the service level not at the network level so what do we get out of it? Well we get that the ability to create those empty engines on mobile loads and we can offer citizens rewards for walking, cycling and public transport because we want to incentivise behaviours that aren't car based rather than simple PMI's and cars we can also connect private vehicles who want to carpool there's a really interesting product that Waze have launched in the U.S. now which is Waze originally a wayfinding app it was quite like a Google that originally a wayfinding app but when you now put your car genie in it knows where you're going and then if other Waze users are on there and say I want to go from A to B it kind of turns you into a doober so do you want to carpool them on the screen and it's crucial that there is one system here for both commercial public not to freight services but commercial individual services and the private car driver and the reason for that is that roads are a network and networks only work very well when they are all literally to keep there's a few math laws about that that would be a little over my own here so I won't try and go there to get broad buy in for an open system we do however need to address individual privacy because when people see a chart that says hey we're going to have my taxi broadcasting into a city hub we're going to have my car talking to me as well immediately they're going oh I don't want anyone to know where I'm going that's very sensitive and there are a lot of reasons why I might want that now so what we need to do and one of the really cool things that blockchain can do is we can start to do self-solving and what that means is for any individual who is operating in this kind of system who is driving a taxi or running a private vehicle that they have their own ID it's not a centralized database that's data stored on user's phones it can be optionally hacked up in a distributed cloud with an encrypted key so no one is not a central data store that can be hacked and your key is different and most importantly it doesn't send data so at the moment an API asks if you're asking a traditional API for a copy of someone's data like a driver slices number whatever they send you that number and then you check it back so you get that piece of data from the user the driver slices number and then you go off to the other NZ API and you say hey is that valid now all of a sudden you've got a copy of that data and there's just no way around it you have to have it if you want to call off the third party API to check it this kind of decentralized setup allows you can ask questions so you've got some information over 0.8 and then you're actually just saying hey does this person have a valid parent driver's license and the answer comes back to you so now one of the one of the examples we use is is entry to a bar is the classic one you have to prove your age but your ID has a ton of other information on it and the bouncer doesn't necessarily need to see all of that it just needs to know video over 18 to get into the bar and it comes to digital equivalent of that so this starts to become quite crucial in mobility systems because systems like this need a lot of proofs to operate does the car have a registration does the driver own the car does the driver have a license there are quite a few things that you need to understand so decentralized identities can help they can be a great solution to those concerns about privacy where there's a lot of data so you have this open mobility network in your city paired with a decentralized private ID and what that can do is start to return value to the city and its citizens so to improve autonomous AI they should get a dividend at the moment all of that returns to Google or to Facebook doing that doing that money and even more simply cities just need to have access to fair data on everything that moves on a rubbish in order to improve services they don't need to know who they do need to know what is moving around and they shouldn't need a quarter order to get it at the moment the behaviour of the monopoly operators and mobility is pretty poor they give up data only where that's legislated to do so and in an open ecosystem you wouldn't need that you just get summarized in an automated data that cities can use to make good decisions open source so you want software that doesn't have a long overhead to cities and nations they can support the start and they set the rules this is with cities not around cities and a decentralized market runs the network it's blockchain I was trying to see how long I could go without saying that and an open market allows trustless contracts you can sell your customer a right and receive a commission without a puncture print just a smart contract so this enables some interesting new use cases you could bundle trading with a booking this is already done in closed systems like when you buy a company in New Zealand offers you a taxi and that's just an agreement that they stitch up with the provider or they've got their own fleet or whatever but an open network that functionality can be ubiquitous I've booked a family pass to all the museum and at the time of booking I might want a pre-booker with the taxi van that's going to take my whole phone over down there maybe a restaurant booking maybe I don't want to choose that at the time it's a nice note I might want a wall but maybe an hour beforehand I'll get a pen and say here's a couple of travel options for you and you wouldn't need any commercial agreements to do that because it's part of an open market place can be negotiated through smart contracts offloading demand this is a big one for mobility operators to work with each other at the moment food service is slow tough you're out of luck so if Uber is not able to get to you and that's the only app you have on your phone too bad but customers don't really care too much about brands for certain exceptions for the most part they want to they want a short wait and they want to get there with a reasonable amount of quality and so an open market place one provider can on-sell with that demand to another provider or receive a commission for that again without any contract so there's a properly open market and maybe that's 50 cents for a dollar so that the acquiring business is rewarded for the brandwood that they've done and the loyalty that they've established by getting the app onto the user's phone but the end delivery the profit split between them and the company that actually downloads and lastly usage fees based on cardboard this is a holy grail you can actually confirm through a hub with privacy whether a shared private carrier is carrying more than one messenger and charge accordingly and when you say this to transport companies they're like their minds are blown on because that is exactly what they want to do essentially at the moment they do that by putting everyone on the bus because they know that their carrier is a lot of people but what we really want is the flexibility of car movement with some sharing in what we do and that means car for them and we can do all that without revealing too much so a road map for New Zealand six to three I'm pretty much out of time okay great I won't talk through all of this then but there's a couple of key things we've got this, we've got a pretty limited time and there are kind of three phases we go through and the first one is we've got to start setting up for our digital infrastructure so we need to start piloting these open source city apps where is she talking I'm off to Portland tonight to talk to them about whether they're going to pilot in 2019 for the technology that we developed and then once you've got a bit of that commercial traffic in you start using those data sets to inform policy we know that our certain leaders want data that helps leverage them off their seats same with central government and so once you've got some of that digital infrastructure in place you go into the middle zone here which is where you start getting all the commercial the four higher traffic attesting through hubs and you can even start having EVs and commercial traffic pay road charges as part of that transition and eventually you say all new vehicles need to attest into the hubs and that's actually quite a way to go down the track so the technology is proven out by that point and it's only once you've gone six or eight years down the journey that you actually start to deploy the step which is we have to mandate that all of the vehicles need to be retrofitted to talk into the hubs but we have to do something along those lines anyway because we need we need to replace future with road charging and there's just no way around that so again turn and threaten for an opportunity and why this will work is that it never says you can't own a car it doesn't say hey we've all got to just have these sheer police rolling around the city you can still buy a car it's just going to be part of the network part of the system and it uses smart pricing and prioritisation as mechanisms for control so that's that's the guts of it we need to change our rules we need legislation that preempts the autonomous electric vehicle way we need to use price as a mechanism to manage the single driver private car condition save that three times fast we need to drive behaviour change for shared services city planning is part of that we need to incentivise mobility as a service possibly with a contestable phone we need to close parts of the city with private non-portrait we need to open more bike lanes for micro-mobility we need to ensure our digital infrastructure is open source but with great challenge comes great opportunity and I believe that we can do this one together so hopefully we can get on and on good question do you have a few minutes for questions so Auckland is going to light rail which is of course an older technology on the one hand it moves lots of people on the other hand it feels like and years would be able to do better I think it's fantastic absolutely in favour of trunk lines just a city's life blood and the the kind of role that AEDs will will fill in this transition mode especially as to actually start connecting with the trunks so what you can do is rationalise bus lines into super bus lines that are super fast and then AEDs actually serving people up to the bus lines because what people hate about transfers at the moment is that they have to wait so long for the next bus and even on a higher frequency route anywhere in the world that could be 5 to 10 minutes if that time is down to 2 minutes because it's a super line or something like light rail then you've got a real great combination in terms of electrification what about the limitations of lithium that's going to be a problem it's a tough one smarter people than I work on it and they get it right yeah are there some more radical things sort of lurking around for instance I remember I was in Italy and they had escalators to take us up up the hill and things like that and so are there some people thinking outside the screen you know you've sort of got all the conventional do you want to fly a house ride yeah I love to so there will always be there will be roles for other kind of non-standard, non-ground transportation but the bulk of us are going to continue to move on roads or something that looks like roads roads or rails I love talking about flying cars because they do make me laugh they're like the galleons of old you have to have an extremely wealthy patron in order to get to where you're going basically they are going to be so expensive and so annoying that we won't ever see them go into huge uptake if anyone has ever read the story of the sonnet boom tests over Kansas City there's a great podcast I'll just google it that will give you some insight into the level of pushback we'll have all the noise from flying cars, they're going to be outside of you then privacy you did suggest that could be solved my thoughts were like self-solving identity you could have multiple identities for one motor transport and I need for the driver and I need for the vehicle and possibly something else as well how can you solve that kind of scenario so if I understand the question correctly you're asking how are we dealing with the identities of everything and then you would not just be essentially like the driver may not be holding the car correct, yes I totally get it, yes it's already solved so there are three types of entity within self-solving identity system they are people they are organizations it's a company or a system itself and an asset and each one of those can relate to it that could also mean that across the coastal system that INDs should be in the area of business so that you know essentially news and transport should power those actually please well they wouldn't necessarily need to have rule, there would be some databases that had specific things that had regulatory or a system functionally but the cool thing about sovereign identity is that they don't all have to be in one place in my view the legal thing that still would be in this system it would be a separate asset and together with that there has to be an agreement as well, there was something between because of there is a chairman or something else then like one of the passengers they decide to take a different route than what happens because that has to be out of there like that's an element in the entire journey so the question is like in addition to the identities like the agreement on taking a certain route that would become a part of managing that entire journey yeah you're saying if you get to change where you were going the way you're getting to somewhere because of traffic condition for example I think you could dynamically deal with that yeah but then if there are more than like that's not a single user there are a couple of users so there has to be a certain level of agreement between those couple of things like adding to the complexity of the entire equation because there are a couple of morning parts here yeah I see what you're getting at so there are some pretty easily easy to define parameters about how willing an occupant in a shared vehicle is to diverge off their most historic part like someone else are and all the data shows us that they are actually willing to go quite away out of their path provided they never turn around if they start going back the behavior just changes completely so you can get away with quite a few side streets but you can never turn around yeah it's a really cool project and it's probably the future that we all would like it to be but doesn't it feel like it relies on just so many political factors that are probably outside of your control like just imagine that you said that there should be like vast lanes and like we should double bike lanes imagine if the government proposes it and then next day you open the Herald or stuff and like there will be a shit storm sorry so like what we see now is governments they kind of backing up or just not doing anything like when there are conflicts like that I totally understand so you're right to achieve that vision and roadmap in South New Zealand would take a really a lot of people and a lot of energy and a lot of steps and certainly not what we're doing but there's that vision which I think is a great goal for us and then there is our project and the actual the hub and the open source software that we're building around that hub can succeed to a number of levels and the bar for its initial success is quite low what we need is the support of cities to get it installed and if they put their public transport inventory into it which they have no reason not to the cities that we expect with the university support because they want open source software they want multi-mode, multi-routing to connect with their public transport then everything else if everything else was left to the private market we would still get a situation where every other mobility provider who's not Uber or Lyft would benefit from being in their network if you already have a massive network you don't benefit a lot from it but what you'd find is you'd have the top half of the market with a couple companies and then everyone else and then everyone else would actually connect super well with PT so the time if cities go to Uber you have to actually get it there and we're dealing with cities with a range of views on that some of them like Singapore or Trans-Indonesia but everything else is up to you Portland a little different extremely progressive transit authority there the woman Viviana McHugh who runs their innovation has been there for 10 years originally didn't code about the general transit fee specification along with the good people of Google they, Portland have already gone around and they have agreements with all of the Trans-Indonesia shared mobility providers in their city saying hey you have to put or you will put your inventory into our open-trip planner it's a piece of software that they have developed which is just a routing piece of software it doesn't sell your ticket it's got no contracts between it so they've already aggregated their ecosystem and what they say to us is okay cool we've done that and you can provide software which would take that to a more commercial level so it can succeed just with a basin still in the city where it can succeed with the city's full support and then there's another level which is if you get national support for the approach which would only come out of a couple of successful pilots in cities then the networks can connect together between cities so what you're saying is that in this case you are saying that the participants can cooperate and then they can compete as well so they have to cooperate so you are saying this is a better market compared to open-free market competition is that what you're saying it's a evolution of that competition there would be instances in which you might not want to put your inventory into that market I think cities will tow a line between saying to providers yes you have to put all your inventory in there and you have to be part of the open contracts what they might say is you just have to attest so that we have your mobility data but if you want to run your own network that's fine but again what you get is that the first scenario that I've described where the PT inventory in the city connected really well with the small participants or gain a huge benefit from that and then you have bigger operators like people who wouldn't sign up in the first instance and what that is going to mean that over time there will be benefit even to big operators so it can work off the low banks the reason I was asking is that the follow-up question is so I look at like an organ in the market so for example you are proposing an open digital market and infrastructure actually where many partners can for example join in so think of for example maybe Kevin here, he runs main freight there are a lot of different supply chain operators so you are thinking of maybe developing infrastructure for supply chain operators and so many people might join in so the question is whether they have benefit in joining in such an infrastructure so you are talking about sharing demand or offloading demand and so other things so whether such a system can be developed for these different sectors as well that's what you might sorry, yeah you are absolutely right but freight logistics is quite a different beast to human logistics which is why when I saw Kevin was here I carefully sort of decided to do that one we are actually we are doing a little bit of work in that area not on the same type of marketplace but we have a product called Trackback that is looking at logistics there are a couple of open market places for freight boarding already, you'd be familiar with them there is blockchain based solutions for that so I think we will see that in time it's a if the two people became the same thing I'd be surprised but they have some fundamental principles that are similar with regards to distribution as well if you are all ears with regards to creating the critical mass do you think without the last mile it would be a factor proposition for the end user you mean would it be worth having an open hub even without the last mile providers being able to land it could still still work well because it could provide it's possible that it could provide a better purchasing or routing and purchasing solution than many cities existing PT technology in fact the bar is pretty low on some of those so the answer is yes I mean 80s routing now is starting to get pretty good still not what I'd say is right up there in the top corner but there is so many cities who are in the dust so even if they took the white laden ran the hub and just put their badge on it and the transit the benefit to public transport riders would be there for them but we would like to see some service on the end of that as well sorry there is one more question just wondering what is your opinion about it because if you go to another country like America or Australia all the people and the elite are very big services a lot of the users are using it every day in New Zealand because there will be a set behind other companies to elect start sharing I think we might you've just reminded me that we all did this poll and I haven't actually popped it up to see see what we got because this had some connections I'm going to have to jump on to my phone now aren't I here we go I think I think Kiwis will struggle with that in the first instance we're not Europeans yet although we might aspire to let's have a look down here at what people said about your question think about carpooling 11 out of 11 people and 64% of you said you'd happily share your car with other people so admittedly this room might have a bit of a skew but I'm heartened by that result just run through these so that you can see what everyone else answered e-bikes most of you have never tried one and no one owns one that is a shame if I'd answered that I've just ordered one from Belgium it's coming in after Christmas it's called a cowboy and I'll send you the link they are red dot designer look amazing fantastic regarding e-scooters half of you have never tried one but nearly half have written one and 10% of you own one that's cool that's one person who is that do you want, you don't have to what sort do you want I'm just waiting for it now there's Charlie so that's the one that bird used in three my relationship with Uber not surprised at all no one has never used it and most people only use it I gave a much briefer talk at the NZ Taxi Federation conference a month or two ago there were some sad faces in that room we should have had zoom in yeah we absolutely should and we actually have a product called UShare which has been designed specifically to digitise legacy taxi fleets because so many of them are struggling with their user experience thinking about electric cars most have never driven one there are a few of you there who have driven someone else's me too a buddy of mine has a Tesla and drove that a little bit one of you owns or seriously considering and lucky last year thinking about autonomous cars and sharing we talked about that didn't we we threw it thanks for taking the time


Okay, very good morning, Monday 17th of February, so hope everyone had a good rainy weekend. And as per usual on a Monday morning, I look ahead for the week, what have we got on the agenda? Certainly quite a few headlines to get through this morning as well. But one thing, just to kick things off, to stress is really two things. One, Monday today is a US holiday, so it is President's Day in America, which means markets are closed, shortened hours of electronic trade. So something to just bear in mind when we get into the afternoon session. And then also it's half-term. I'm not sure if you guys are commuted in this morning, but I would say that the general traffic on my commute on the way in was less than half as normal. And that is quite a reflection for generally markets, because in UK, for example, you do actually see a lot of people out of the workplace and that can have also ramifications just generally on volumes. But mainly it's about the US afternoon, which is a holiday, so do bear that in mind with your strategies for today. It could be slow going, barring anything unexpected a bit later on. For this morning though, obviously we're going to update on the virus, quite a lot of news about China over the weekend to get you up to speed on. Also Japanese GDP came out and that's caught a few headlines. A quick word on the UK economic data and then a review for the week as a whole. But getting things off to a start, let's have a look at the charts more broadly speaking. And equity index futures are on a positive footing. Subsequently, the US 10 year down just a touch about four ticks on the bottom right and gold down about three and a half dollars. So some moderate risk on type of environment. This does come despite a very eyebrow-raising Japanese economy contraction of some 6.3%. And I want to kick off with that actually because generally when I come into work, one of the things that I do is I scroll through Twitter just to get a general sense of some of the main headlines and what people are saying, opinions and so on. And there was a lot of negative kind of interpretation from this print where Japanese GDP overnight the release showed the economy shrunk by 6.3% annual rate versus expectations of a fall of just 3.8% in the fourth quarter after last autumn's rise in consumption tax impact, weak global demand and typhoon disruption all weighing on their economy. So as I said, when I was coming in this morning, a lot of people kind of talking this up almost in a sensational way about how catastrophic it is. But you know, context is king in this respect. And one of the things I wanted to just look at was this, which is the picture of the last, what five, six years of Japanese growth. So this is Japan's real GDP annualized. And you can see the last time they did a previous tax hike on this left hand side was going back into kind of Q2, the impact of 2014. So you can see here, quite similar to what we've had. So, you know, if you came in this absolutely blind, you'd be thinking, wow, this is a spectacularly bad print for growth. However, there's three main reasons here. One in particular, the rise in the consumption tax impact and it's to a similar degree of what we saw previously. Also, just generally in the environment, the weak global demand as I said, and also the disruptions from weather of which they had over the survey period, all contributing to this. The other thing as well is about, what does this mean then for Japan going forward? Well, expectations obviously rife that the Prime Minister Shinza Abe after only about two months ago, adding a large amount of fiscal stimulus to the systems, probably going to have to consider going for round two in order to support growth because we haven't yet mentioned the virus, of course. And then the Bank of Japan. This is the Governor Koroda he said in local press overnight that would consider more easing if the virus impact becomes big. So that then leads us on to the Chinese situation. Now these numbers, just to give you an update, total confirmed cases north of 70,000 total deaths now just above or just under 1800. Now, one of the main things though that's been happening is this. And actually, if you look at this chart, this is the CSI 300 index in China. So kind of the biggest companies in China. And what we've got here is the entire index has now recouped all of its losses from when we originally closed for the Lunar New Year. So we closed the Lunar New Year basically where that green arrow is here. And after we had that big gap down in markets, you remember in China, on the back of the catch-up given the extended closure of their markets to contain that virus in Hubei province, we've now recoup all of those losses. And in fact, overnight Shanghai, or I'd say Shanghai Composite, local markets elsewhere in the region, Hong Kong, and Hangsang all up, up about 2% in fact overnight. So despite numbers, obviously the virus is getting worse in that respect, markets are more focused on what is gonna be the kind of reaction by the government and in what ways are they gonna try to counteract this by propping up the government. Now, China's government pumped cash into the financial system, they've trimmed money market rates, they've offered targeted tax cuts. So China said on Sunday, it will enact more efficient stimulus measures despite widening fiscal gap, including lowering corporate taxes. The stock regulator in China on Friday said it would ease some rules for firms seeking to raise extra capital through share placements including shortening lockup periods to benefit smaller cap firms. And President Xi called for encouraging vehicle purchases as part of efforts to help the economy last night, local auto manufacturers rose more than 10% on the back of that comment from Xi. Also within the region, Singapore has promised strong package of budget measures, central banks from the Philippines to Thailand to Malaysia have all been cutting interest rates. So it kind of explains a lot of why markets are fairly calm at the moment despite the kind of numbers that are accumulating at this present point in time and the kind of general mainstream media and how they are reporting this in a slightly more different, more sensational way. This was a graphic that I shared in my kind of week ahead piece that I've sent out by email to all you guys. But all of the things I've just mentioned were just the stuff that China was saying at the weekend. But if you go all the way back to basically the beginning of the month, this isn't the first kind of fiscal tweak that China's looked to do from injecting large amounts of liquidity into the system through open market operations to supporting key sectors via easing of monetary policy. You know, it's kind of that mantra of whatever it takes. And at the moment, that's why the markets remain fairly sanguine about this whole virus issue despite obviously the underlying long-term economic impact. If this is what's happening, the way markets are perceiving this at least for the moment is almost this V-shaped recovery. A big hit to Chinese growth obviously on the impact of what we've had through late Jan February. However, given these measures, a substantial comeback on the period thereafter. Moving on then, a few other headlines I wanted to share. Obviously a lot of talk about OPEC in recent week or so given the low nature of which oil had been trading given the impact on consumption from China and so the net demand on crude oil. And I just wanted to have a look at crude oil again. This is that familiar chart, which I've looked at a number of times, which is marking up quite a few of the key price points. So if I just remove my camera for one second, you're about to see the whole thing. So as you can see here, oil prices have stabilized and this goes hand in hand with what we've just been talking about, about the overall market's perception at least for the moment, about the handling of the virus being a fairly contained one for the time being. So the recovery in the equity markets, the all-time highs in US stocks, the full reversal in the mainland in Chinese equities, the oil market reflects that same shared interpretation. Remember, we were threatening around a key level of support from around the summer of 2019. We did get a little bit below there, but we've bounced now a decent amount, pretty much just over $2 back up towards north of a 52 handle for the moment. So what does this mean? Well, from an OPEC point of view, I would say, remember what we were talking about with the strategy of OPEC, as I've got marked up here on the right-hand side. Remember, about a week ago, they were verbalizing the necessity to cut the current supply agreement by additional 600,000. And that in tandem with the general, let's say, leveling off or, let's say, more moderate rise in virus cases has been enough to turn the market around. Again, for now, we shall see how long-lasting that becomes. So the fact that headlines would suggest then that there's fading hope for an emergency OPEC plus meeting, I think absolutely right. If I was OPEC, particularly if I was Russia, absolutely no need now to have an emergency meeting. Their OPEC official meeting is scheduled for the beginning of March. That's only about three weeks away from current date. So I would say if market prices continue to bounce as they are, absolutely no reason then. You can almost rearm your ammunition for talking up, again, potential action if we were to come back down again. So if I were them, I would keep them for now and save it for another day. This is just a graph to reflect that. This is looking at the price over the last couple of months of oil. And you can see all has actually had its best run this year as the coronavirus hit nerves of somewhat calmed. So quite a substantial pullback from where we were just through pretty much most of the period of January. Skipping forward then, let's talk about a little bit for the week. And just wanted to mention the UK. I do talk about this in my kind of macro overview in the week ahead piece that I've written at the weekend. That is, I'll share that now, that article in your chat that you can have a read when it's very quiet later on this afternoon. So the first things first, obviously the pound did see a bit of strength towards the back end of last week on the resignation of Sadji Javid. The idea of being that Rishi Sunak will be more aligned with number 10 and look to provide a kind of Trumpian style stimulus perhaps to markets. Whether or not that is the case, I don't think you're gonna get any immediate details on that. Remember, the budget isn't coming for another couple of weeks. And so I don't think you're gonna get much in the way of real concrete details on any type of fiscal changes in that respect this quickly. So I'd say this week then attention terms back to this, which is the economic calendar of events. So you can see here, I'll make this a bit bigger, but this is what's coming out in the UK this week. Tuesday you've got the unemployment rate, average earnings, Wednesday UK CPI, Thursday UK retail sales, and Friday manufacturing the service PMI. So recently what we've had is a bit of a Boris bounce on the securing of that majority government and ability to kind of at least move through the first parts of delivering of Brexit into this transition phase. And that has been warmly received in terms of economic data. I'm not sure if you saw, I think it was right move, house prices again, housing data has seen a very sharp snap back higher on the back of renewed confidence on inquiries into home purchases. But generally speaking, the way I perceive this economic data is is that I don't really foresee that momentum behind the kind of election lift long lasting. And so this data, I think it's going to be quite interesting because sterling currency, as we know, despite the rally last week, still remains relatively precarious in terms of to the downside. And in the world of generally dollar strength at the moment where US economic data is being pretty decent, sterling or cable like Euro dollar, I think it's quite interesting to continue to watch both with generally quite downbeat fundamentals, both in the Eurozone for the Euro, for the pound UK, because I think the data and also the impasse of generally Brexit negotiations will outweigh until we get at least any more details, this whole kind of belief about Sonak coming out with some sort of fiscal bazooka anytime soon. On that point of Brexit, this is happening today. So the UK Brexit negotiator is going to be giving a headline speech a bit later on today. I'm not sure if you recognize this chat or not, but that's David Frost, the UK Brexit negotiator will set out Britain's goals for talks over its future relationship with the European Union in a speech on Brussels today. We know the current status here. The two sides are very far apart on a number of points. So it'd be interesting to see the current status on those talks later. This was something as well. I mean, I won't go into it too much, but I did want to mention it because you have the Nevada caucuses happening on the weekend. This comes after Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire and Pete Buttigieg won Iowa a few weeks ago. So this is the democratic kind of race for nomination for the presidential pursuit. If you like going into November of this year, and I just wanted to show what the current markets are predicting, and Bernie Sanders is outright favorite at the moment to win the democratic nomination. Whether or not that's going to remain the case yet to be seen, the Nevada caucus, I think is a bit of a moot point. The biggest one is Super Tuesday. I talk about it a little bit in the week ahead piece, but Super Tuesday, for those not aware of it, is when 16 states or areas basically put forward their nominees. And so that's the big one. People like Michael Bloomberg, the business billionaire, he hasn't taken part at all in any of the caucuses so far. He's kind of saving it all for the big day on Super Tuesday, which is kind of the real flagship event. And whoever comes out on that will be in a very strong place. But my overall assessment of this type of information is for one, this really is not that important for markets, generally speaking, day to day for the moment. And then two, one thing that's quite interesting here is that the more center ground democratic people, so Buttigieg or Klobuchar or Biden, they are all basically fighting with one another, which means there's no real shared consensus within the party behind who to back in the center ground, which by default then is lifting more and more the chances of Bernie Sanders, who is more of an outright socialist and has clarity at least in that political view. So yeah, something to be aware of, it's getting a lot of US media attention, but I just wanted to cover that off. Okay, for the week, other things to look out for and the final parts. So yeah, today, US holiday, President's Day, so no Treasury trade, NISI as well, closed and short electronic trade on CME Globex, so very quiet this afternoon I'm sure. And then going into the overnight, you get the RBA minutes, so if you're looking at the Aussie, then you get the commencement of the UK data on Tuesday on the job side. Two of the biggest earnings reports to look out for pre-market respectively in the US, it's going to be in the brick and mortar retailer, Walmart, well I should say brick and mortar, more and more they're trying to switch into a little bit more to track behavioral changes onto the online space, so see how they fare. Still very much a sizable company. And then UK earnings, FTSE giant, HSBC reports pre-market tomorrow. On Wednesday, and this is really, there's three central banks minutes coming out this week, the RBA tonight, you've got the Fed FMC minutes on Wednesday night, you've got the ECB minutes on Thursday. For the Fed and the ECB, I'm not really expecting much to be honest, and I don't think they're going to be particularly market moving events, but nonetheless, probably warrants at least watching just to see how the land lies, particularly with some of the decisions we've had of late with the Fed for the second consecutive month winding down the size of some of their repo operations. And then on Thursday from the UK, you've got retail sales, obviously the CPR on Wednesday, then Friday, a little bit more interesting on the data side, you've got the manufacturing service, PMI, data, these are preliminary readings coming out from Eurozone, UK, and also from the US, as long as with a slew of Fed speakers as well. The final point is Saturday, the G20 conference in Saudi Arabia kicks off, so just giving all the gatherings of the heads of state be interested to see what they have to say about the ongoing impacts of the coronavirus, of course. Okay, that is it from me. Gonna hand you over to Sam, so I'm gonna switch over my screen, and I'm gonna put my camera back on so you can see when he's talking, should come on now. And I wish you guys a good day, thanks very much. Hi guys, good morning. Hope we all had good weekends. We'll have a quick look over a couple of the charts to start off the day. Might as well go for the currencies to begin with here, and you've just got Euro, small range to begin. I mean, this is likely to be the story of the morning, I would suggest. I don't think there's gonna be too much going on, let alone in the afternoon. It's gonna be relatively quiet day. I mean, just quickly flip back to that calendar that Ant was on there, it's gonna be quiet. Obviously, if we go to where we are now, UK right move house price index, not gonna move things very quiet on that front. So looking at that Euro, just on the high that we sort of finished, or the highest point we had around eight o'clock on Friday, that's holding up price action for now. I mean, the low that we had in the early hours of Friday is actually only 14 ticks below that level. So small zone there in the Euro to keep an eye on. If we're looking for that continuation, obviously that zone for that to break through, and we're looking for that to continue all the way down to some of those levels. That, of course, you're gonna wanna have marked up from back in 2017, if we were to see, you know, a bigger push through, you've got initially that low that we're on now, and then Macron's gap around 108, so not actually too far away now from that taking place. If we have a look at this on the longer timeframe, the weekly, you can see those big couple finishes that we had near those lows as well, but right now trading on the futures anyway, if I just move this out of the camera so you guys can see, right on the low that we had at the week of the 24th of April, that has been tested right now, where we finished days and weeks on this point will be really interesting.  Obviously time will tell, but very key level being traded pretty much right now. For the bulls, if you're gonna get excited, it's probably not gonna be on a Monday, US Bank holiday, but if we can get above some of these levels of resistance from Friday, you might just start to feel a bit more comfortable, but I would suggest until we get really above the higher Friday, the lower, to get long for, you know, a considerable amount of time. The pounds, like the Euro this morning, very quiet. I mean, just have a look at eight o'clock and it's relatively quiet in comparison. I'm not expecting too much. We have had a couple of highs previous sessions to get lower, so it's worth getting on a potential trendline four that you can see. We're also getting squeezed in from the bottom as well. So potential for a bit of a low liquidity spike, higher or lower on that for the pound. Probably overall at the moment would prefer this to put to the upside. So break of the high of the day, the trendline potential trendline, and I should say to target the highs that we did have from last week, which you could call a bit of a double top really with the higher, the fifth in the mix there as well. Aussie dollar, you know, are people still excited about this as a medium term? Long opportunity to have found support on those multi-year lows. We have to wait and see, of course, but looking at this trendline here from the low of the year, we hit that late on Friday. Got to have this on a break of that. Then this market could look to come back down and find a bit of support on where we found quite a lot of support. A lot of buying pressure came in around this area, around 6,700 and keeping on that trendline, guiding price to the upside. Getting on a bit of a trend from the recent highs as well. You can see perfectly getting squeezed here, starting on the fifth, then the 12th and 13th as well. But the Aussie, this is all I'm caring about just now. A couple of might wrap this up and then obviously what I'll do, I'll put it on YouTube and I'm sure Sam will figure itself out. But for the Aussie dollar, keeping a watch on both of those there, really waiting for the break to the upside or the downside, I don't think, for a more considerable movement there. Overnight, the end, it's like to touch, you'll see the shockingly poor data bringing us under pressure. And it's actually, this market again, it's not doing too much, but very key level support right now. It's called that S1, five days double bottom, bit of support there from Thursday as well. So keep a watch on that as well. But the market that I want to switch this over to is the Nikai, which you can see pushed drastically lower in early trade, that's already recovered that move. However, it is some way off those highs that we did have from last week. So maybe we want to keep an eye on how that develops. I think if you're bullish stocks and you want to see Nikai maybe recover, although I don't necessarily think that's going to happen today, really the pivot and these lows from the fifth to seventh and then Thursday, Friday will be levels to keep an eye on there. Moving over to US, just printing a new fresh record high in the S&P. Of course, we're just coming through the European cash open, volume still low. So keep an eye on perhaps what the tax is going to do on that whether we can actually get a decent enough move. Either way today, I'm not too sure. Obviously keep a mark up on that fresh record high and then really we just make this a bit smaller. I'm going to put this on a 60 minute. Now you can see we have got a series of lows to keep an eye on. You can see they're very nicely respected. Starting here, let me just move that out of the way. Back on that low that we had on the ninth, marks up lovely with the 13th and good enough for me on the 14th. That I would want to have that on and that could be a bit of a guide going into the week as well. We're in the timeframe down areas of support around the pivot. You've got previous highs, call that a zone as well from the pivot to 3380. That would be a level that I'd be wanting to focus on as an area where buyers could come in and of course that trend line there that I've just talked about. Oil and gold now. Oil for me, the finish to last week was key getting above $52 and remaining there is going to be even harder.  You can see here just the importance of this level, this zone. I think when you get excited to the upside, $52.50, I think a close above that and you can feel quite comfortable that this market could push relatively then fast on towards sort of the 44, 41, 54, 41 I should say. So keep a watch on oil. I don't expect to get a big move today. Low trade, low volume. But if we can clear out that high for Friday, then I'm a bit more excited about a move to the upside. Couple of trend lines in play potentially for oil starting on those previous days. Worth having on as well. To be honest, are you going to want to get too involved today? Probably not US related markets as well, less so. But just once to keep in our couple of levels that will be key for a week ahead. Gold, after pushing down this morning, just coming back up to test its lows of the day. Just have a quick look elsewhere just to see what's driving prices you at European equities are just coming under a bit of pressure. Their pivot levels, which you'll see in a moment, could act as support. And this pivot level in gold could act as resistance. So just keep a watch on that and how we trade going into the morning. The bigger picture for gold, you can see relatively choppy again for the most part of last week before a push higher on Friday, getting back above 15.85, which was pretty key going back here to the beginning of the month. So again, let's have a watch to see how that plays through. But if we just take a look at 2020 in general, there's no real direction to this market. I'm not really convinced at all overall direction of the next few weeks. I think it's still a wait and see kind of approach. It's safe each day as it comes. The coronavirus is what it is right now and I would more than be happy not to take anything on longer than sort of intraday. Couple of those intraday levels to look at. I do quite like the idea of S1 as a bit of support day if we could have drifted down to there for an opportunity to get long. You can see a couple of these trend lines with me there and of course the S1 and also the higher point before we push higher on Friday as well. So around 15.79 is the level that I like. Of course resistance wise, literally the pivot now and really I'd be paying more attention to 15.84.2 and from the high that we had on Friday we are of course just drifting lower at touch as well. So worth getting on a potential trend line on that. Quick look at the deck just to wrap it up. You can see they're just coming down and touching its pivot level where you'd expect a little bounce on that. The next key level to the downside I'd have marked up on around <IP_ADDRESS> the high of Friday evening and then it would be S1. But the pivot you'd expect prices to slow down there a bit. Worth keeping a watch on really how this plays and then those safe havens as well certainly gold and the boom which you'd imagine over the last 15 minutes has pushed higher which it has and that's just coming into a bit of resistance. Now you can see here on the boom quite a key level back on Friday afternoon. So you're watching here boom through there decks through the pivot could be the cue for this market to continue the last 15 minutes of trade that low and the boom also the low of Friday and Thursday. So quite a key level there to keep a watch on. As usual, any questions please do let us know. Hope you all have good days not expecting too much. I'll catch you later on. You'll have a good training week.


Yn y rymdau cymryd yw'r ysgolod yw'r gweithio ar gyfer y dyfodol yn y Daziaeth South East o'r Llyfrgellau Cymru ar y ddod y 5 ymlaen. Is there anything particular that's happened in the last 5 years that you were drawing attention to? Thank you. We've seen that the transition in the last three years, particularly with regard to some of the threat that has been reported on for the terrorist fighter as an example, some of the expansion on that, some of the indigenous terrorist threat has started to migrate not only across the region but also further afield, so that presents some new challenges. Secondly is the growing economic strength within the region has brought some change to the demographic with regard to some of the big city infrastructures and ac yn ymwneud yn ei ddweud o'r llai a gwahanol transglyfa yn y region ac yn ymwneud yn ddweud yn ei ddweud yn ei ddweud.  Mae'r panfalu'r panfalu yma'r ysgol i'r worldau, ddwy o'r ysgolion o'r eu hunain o'r cyffredinol, a o'r myfnodol i'r rai cyfnodol, ac mae'r cyfrifio'r gysylltu yn eich gweithio. Ac yn oedden nhw'n rhai cyfrifio'r byddei, mae'n ei gweithio'r gymaint o'r llywodraeth a'r cyfrifio'r cyfrifio yma i'r gweithio i'r cyfrifio'r cyfrifio. Mae'n sydd wedi bod yn cyd-aedd o'r ymdelygu a'r ysgolwyr sydd wedi'u gwahanol ar gyfer y pryd-gwyr. Felly, oes ymdrygu yw'r yr ysgolwyr ymdelygu i Gwyrdysgol, fel ymdrygu i'w gwahanol i'r ysgolwyr? Mae'r ysgolwyr i'r ysgolwyr er mwyn i'r ysgolwyr yr ysgolwyr? I know this is the kind of program that aims to address the issues concerning border control, that is reserved. As you know that we are entering in a new phase of our city community within the city council. Felly, mae'r newydd yma yn y Comediannau Arsyn, yn y gweithio yma, yma, yw'r newydd yma. Mae'n gweithio'r newydd yma, ychydig yma, yw'r newydd yma. Y gallai ydych chi'n ffordd yma, mae'n ffordd rydyn ni'n ffordd yr ysgol yma, that are often people, how do we get people to travel, to become closer to people to people content. But at the same time, I think that Michael already pointed out the fact that within that You have the possibilities that organized criminal groups can also, you know, penetrate. And that becomes a challenge for all of the countries within Asia. I think that the way we see, at least from the perspective of Assad, is we really need to generate more awareness among us within the countries in a region that this is something that we really need to pay attention to apart from all the new economic dimensions that this integration is going to bring to the region. That is the point that needs to be made about, you know, how this particular aspect, the vulnerability, how we manage the border area, the immigration issue was also mentioned as one of the very important issues and, you know, how do we get the collaboration among the colleagues, you know, authorities concerned within the region to be ready to deal with this situation. Now I think that one of the things we really have to pay attention is the capacity building of the officials concerned and I think that through projects such as this EU Interpol Border Management Program, which is now entered into the second phase now, I think it would really contribute to strengthening the capacity of the criminal justice officials, including law enforcement officials within the country. So I think that that is the question. Yes, there is the necessity that the awesome countries need to be allowed. Yes, the prospect for closer economic integration brings about, you know, all the good things in terms of the economic cooperation, but that we need to be aware and we need to strengthen the efforts in this field. And of course, as, you know, I am sure that this is the, this applies for a variety of crime issues, you know, including those linked to migration. And you mentioned the issue of the Rohingya. And I think that what I can tell you is that it is this kind of a forcing closer collaboration among the law enforcement and that would be, you know, I mean, would bring a better integrated criminal justice response to such a situation. So we shall see, you know, more of the interaction. And of course, somebody mentioned about the importance of intelligence challenge. This is all a lot of issues. So I hope that that was a response to your question. Would you like to add something, Excellency Leprace, as the chair of SONTC? I didn't know that you were on behalf of the media. I thought you were my friend. Now this nature of crimes is flourished so rapidly. And the ASEAN community, especially the law enforcement, somehow not the work as quick as possible in order to catch up the activity of criminals. So the declaration of transnational crime in 1997 to deal with all eight areas of transnational crimes. So you can imagine now 2015, we haven't updated our declaration. So we just start in September in Konalampur, Malaysia. We have what we call the meeting of the ASEAN ministerial meeting on transnational crime. So we can accelerate our activity. In other words, plan of action that we have to improve also mechanism that to tackle this crime. And our decision and our declaration is instead of what we call the ASEAN ministerial meeting used to be every two years. Now we decided that's no good. Must be once a year. And if any emergency call upon the minister, the minister had to pick up that emergency meeting. So the chair of the meeting had to call that emergency as soon as possible. That's one of the improvements of our plan of action in the ASEAN framework. So we not allow the criminal leading us. We better start do something that we can effectively have a mechanism that tackle those criminals. And on the issue of trafficking in person, we already in our bench, a draft of what we call the ASEAN Convention against trafficking in person, especially women and children. And also, ASEAN plan of action to complement the convention ready the ministerial meeting already considered that. And we going to convey that to the summit coming soon in November 2015 when the summit come. Then we ask our leader to look into it, adopt it and sign it. So we have this kind of convention coming up. And also we not just sit down to be complicit. We also working on what we call arm smuggling. The Cambodian is the lead shipper of that matter. And the EU already cooperate with us. Possibility that we going to talk about that initiative to draft convention against the arms smuggling sometime in February 2016. And on that also Japan also really interested in helping us on that arms smuggling as well. And on the other matters, Thailand already introduced the nine area crime that we call wildlife and temporary trafficking. And we consider that one of that crime also instead of eight now it become nine area of crimes. So we moving along. And today, like I said now, ASEAN is so fortunate we have a partner as EU. And we have a friend as Interpol provide us all this goodie to tackle the criminal. So we appreciate EU and we appreciate Interpol. Any more question? Good afternoon. I am Afra from the Jakarta Post. I want to ask to Mr Francisco Fontan about the, what are the main challenges in tracking the movement of transnational organized crime group. And how will EU as an Interpol trying to strengthen the information sharing between the regions? Thank you. Thank you very much for thinking that I could answer the question. That is extremely technical question. I think there will be a much more interesting answer from a professional. Thank you, Your Excellency. That's at the heart of this program really. We've seen time and time again that there is a necessity for collaboration over and above existing policing channels and law enforcement channels in the region. This program is built upon a series of other campaigns that we've been running and initiatives. Not only dealing with the classic border capability but as Excellency touched upon with regard to firearm smuggling as well, the use of biometrics and forensics in the region. And also the phenomenon that we've got with environmental crime and the trading of commodities of that because we've seen time and time again that criminal groups will look to exploit any opportunity to create illegal profit and to bring harm to communities. Also we've seen time and time again that terrorists will look to exploit weaknesses in our protection capabilities. So we have to get better at sharing the intelligence and the information that we have across the region. And what's ambitious about this program is not only that it's looking to support the master plan that the region has in its road map to 2020 but is trying to bring about a new dynamic to the community of the ASEAN countries. And in particular looking at some of its thinking for developing a visa-less community that allows for community members to move with ease. But that can only be successful if we know what the threat is and where it may be. So it's really important that the work that we're doing through Interpol and with our colleagues in the region that we can convince them of the need to be sharing information and intelligence. Often sensitive intelligence and information but they're sharing it in a secure way to trusted partners and trusted neighbours. So Interpol tries to come into the region as an expert but also as an independent law enforcement body that can convince and educate the merits of sharing that intelligence. His excellency in his presentation earlier on spoke of the lessons that need to continually be learned. And we're here to remind the new law enforcement officers that are growing and coming through the ranks of their responsibility to learn as they go so that they become internationalised in their policing capabilities to be willing to share that information in a controlled way but also how better to respond when they receive information from their partners. Because through that collaboration we bring about integration, through that integration we bring about safer communities. So I hope that helps. Thank you.