been a big part of. Diarrhea deaths, pneumonia deaths also went down, and that's because Gobi took some vaccines that were being given to middle income and rich country children who were at very little risk of dying from those diseases, still a good thing. But actually the kids who had 10 times the risk were not getting the vaccines. And it's by buying the vaccines through Gobi that now our coverage on rotavirus and pneumococcus is actually quite high. And so that's why that acceleration took place. So we're lucky enough to have the director of the Global Fund and Gobi here today. I want to start with you, Peter, now that we've seen what's possible with investment and with focus and with using the tools that we've learned over the last 20 years, what are the immediate and urgent challenges? What happens if we don't focus on these things? Well, I think the starting point, as Bill said, is that the Global Fund and Gary have been two financial innovations for global health that have actually worked extremely well and have delivered a massive difference in terms of life saved. The challenge is going forward. Well, the job's not over. And Gosi can talk on the vaccination side. But suddenly with AIDS, TB, and malaria, we've roughly speaking halved deaths in AIDS and malaria and about 20% reduction in TB. But if we really want to achieve the sustainable development goal ambition of ending the epidemics by 2030, we have to step up the fight. We have to do more better. That's not just about money. It's innovation. It's collaboration. It's better execution, better use of data. But it also takes more money, which is why, as Bill mentioned, our replenishment is this year. The way the replenishment works in the Global Fund is it's a three-year cycle. So we're raising money for the next three years. And we're saying we need at least $14 billion. And for those of you from the private sector, we want at least $1 billion of that to come from the private sector to fund the next three years of the Global Fund's work. Now, why is it so challenging? Well, resistance is a problem across all three diseases, most potently and obviously with MDR, TB, multidirug-resistant TB, but also with just people becoming resistant to bed nets. We also face the way the epidemics work has changed. I mean, the most likely person now to be catching HIV is an adolescent girl. And the root causes of the high rates of infection around adolescent girls and young women in Southern and Eastern Africa and particularly are a horrible cocktail of all the gender inequalities you can think of, from sexual violence to economic disadvantage, educational disappointment. And we are finding that we are having to work in different ways with different partners to address that challenge. Malaria, tail of two areas. We've got some countries making great progress towards elimination, but the highest burden of countries, frankly, we're doing enough to save lives. We're not doing enough yet to break the transmission cycle. The numbers of cases are not coming down fast enough. And on TB, well, frankly, we will all regret it if we don't meet the challenge of MDR, TB. So the other issue, of course, is emerging threats. And Gosi, we've had a really remarkable and stark example of what happens when these partnerships work, in the case of Ebola. In May, there was an outbreak of the Ebola virus in Equatoria Province in the Democratic Republic of Congo. And the nonprofit world, Gavi, the state governments, the World Health Organization under Dr. Tedros and Merck and other private companies worked together, created a ring vaccination, stopped it with a small number of deaths, and it never left the area. Later that summer, we've now seen a new outbreak in Kivu Province, where it's in a war-torn region, and some of these partnerships can't get the job done. It's just too difficult. And we're now at a place where hundreds of people have either confirmed cases of the disease and 400-plus have died, and there's no sign of it alleviating. In fact, it seems to be accelerating. And you talk a little bit about, given the role that you have played in coordinating all of these stakeholders, that challenge, that's the perfect example of when it works versus when it doesn't, the threat. Well, let me thank you. I think Gavi is that new, modern type of organization that we all want to achieve, where you have an alliance that brings together partners that can work together in collaboration to tackle a given problem. So that alliance has WHO in it, it has UNICEF, it has the World Bank, it has pharma, pharmaceutical companies, so we have private sector at the table, we have civil society, and we also have the beneficiary countries around the table. So it's a unique partnership, where you're coming together. And I think that's the modern type of cooperation we need to solve problems these days. So when you talk about Ebola, Dr. Tedros was in the field. He took the lead with WHO to go and try and see the problems firsthand. He went with Seth Berkeley, the CEO of Gavi. And I think because we had taken this step of trying to stockpile some of these experimental Ebola vaccines, there was something available. So when you say it's a failure, I don't quite agree with you. I think if we hadn't had that, it would have been much worse. But I'll leave Dr. Tedros to talk about that, because he was actually there on the ground. Well, please jump in. So I just want to say that the alliance, I think, worked. And I'm very proud, because it could have been much worse. You know when you have conflict, that's one of the challenges we face, that in reaching people where there's conflict is a problem. And it's one that we are trying to overcome. But it's not easy, because people's lives are in danger. But Dr. Tedros can say more. I was a member of Gavi Board, and I know the alliance works. I saw it when I was Health Minister, and now I see it as Director General of WHO. And as Ngozi said, I was there three weeks ago, during the New Year actually. And it was for me very emotional time to share a meal with my colleagues fighting Ebola in DRC, in the front line. You could see to what extent they're putting their life on the line. Even when we were there on New Year Day, one of the Ebola vaccine responders, vaccinators, we're talking about vaccine, was attacked. And he sustained head injury. And myself and Jeremy were in the field. Jeremy, the welcome trust director. And luckily, he's a neurologist, and he helped the patient to not only stabilize, but using the helicopter we had, we had to evacuate him. And that was really a very humbling moment. To what extent our colleagues that are facing daily challenges and serious dangers, actually, to keep others safe. So then coming to the vaccine, I told you about the story about Charles Mwenga, the guy, because of the vaccination, the vaccine, because he was vaccinating when he was attacked, actually. And then the other side is, so far, we have vaccinated 60,000. And if it wasn't for the vaccine, we would have seen more cases. We have now around 650. In five months, you cannot limit the spread of Ebola in 650 without the vaccines. And not only that, the colleagues I spoke to in the field told me that in the eyes of the people affected by Ebola, we see hope, not fear. But in 2014, during the West Africa Ebola, it was fear everywhere, not only in the Ebola area, even everywhere, all over the world. So we are in a different situation, which is really important. And I think it's very important that we recognize the power of partnership, the power of alliance, the power of innovation and technology that helped us to be where we are. But when I say this, I'm not saying it's perfect. We're still very, very vulnerable to outbreaks, including to Ebola. And we have to build on the success we have already achieved. And, Sonia, you're seeing in Pakistan a shift. And not just, obviously, there are still the threat of infectious disease, but you're seeing non-communicable diseases, diseases that used to be most prevalent in the West and wealthier countries. And now you're starting to see them get, you know, grow with, you know, a frenzy in some cases. Talk a little bit about how you manage those twin challenges. Well, the shift towards non-communicable diseases being the predominant contributors to burden of diseases, not just something that's happening in Pakistan, it's a global trend, it's happening all over the world. And in terms of financing for global health, we have to appreciate that non-communicable diseases are not just disruptive in the epidemiological sense of the damage they cause, because we all know that they are the biggest contributors to deaths, to disease, to disability. But they're also equally disruptive in terms of the political, the economic, the societal and health systems responses to address the challenge. Now, if you look at country demand for technical assistance, and Tedros will bear me out on that, NCDs rank amongst the top three asks from countries. And in fact, when we were campaigning together two years ago, this was the consistent ask from different countries. But as opposed to that, we know that it is not within the realm of competencies of ministries of health and the existing infectious disease partnerships that we've created to fully respond to the full range of determinants of non-communicable diseases. So it's quite an imperative to have a new set of institutional competencies and financing instruments to deal with non-communicable diseases. And I fundamentally believe that an appropriate response to non-communicable diseases could be revolutionary for public health, just as the HIV response to HIV AIDS was more than a decade ago in terms of institutionalizing the right space approach to health and catalyzing the access to medicines dialogue and including affected communities in the civil society in the planning process. I believe that an appropriate response to NCDs could actually change the rules of game on two fronts. Firstly, this whole aspect of the whole of government approach and the multi-sectoral approach to dealing with public health. And secondly, the whole piece around engagement with the private sector. So NCDs can be quite transformative in these respects. Well, that's a perfect segue to our last speaker who represents the private sector. You know, Voss, you're unusual for a drug company CO in a number of ways.  But two, you're also a practitioner of global health care from your earliest days. You were at the WHO when you started. You've had great experience in that. And thirdly, I think you're also a data geek. You're a guy who really is looking at sophisticated ways to address these access issues and finding out where what drugs can work more effectively. Can you talk a little bit about the tools that we've got to address some of these global health challenges from the private sector? When I reflect, and I love the Steven Pinker charts, because I think they put it all in perspective, we as an industry, probably our greatest contribution is bringing innovations forward. And I think that's hopefully obvious to everyone here. When you look over that period, the 100 years, at least from 1900 to today, you have 1,500 enemies. You have over 20 vaccines that constitute what we talk about on this stage. And that was the industry bringing these technologies forward. And I think whether it's health care, water, energy, ultimately as the private sector, our ability to innovate on these problems, but then ultimately give access to the poorest of the poor is the conundrum that we face. That's really where we make our greatest contribution. We put forward $170 billion a year into R&D just in our health care industry. And that R&D ultimately leads to innovations. I was recently reflecting on it in Ghana and Gabon. If you go to a dispensary in those countries and you look at the list of drugs, those list of drugs were innovated just 15, 20 years ago. And now, finally, they've reached. The forest reaches of the planet. That's the problem I think we now need to be all about, which is access to medicines. Gavi was founded on the premise that Prevnar, actually our pneumococcal vaccines, took too long to get to people. And we left that to Bill and Gavi to sort out. And I think we as an industry now have to be all about, how do we bring our innovations within the first year or two of when we find them to reach all populations on the planet? So I think that's actually where we create our greatest contribution. Now we, as an industry, I think we give $20 billion into various forms of corporate giving and donations. I ask myself, is that well-directed? Is that really having the impact it could? And I think that's an open question. But if you ask me, the biggest impact we could have is if all that $170 billion of R&D to find the next innovation reaches that patient in Kenya or Botswana much faster, then we've had the impact that we would have. So you brought up a really, yeah, please. I just want to say a word, I hope you don't mind. I want you to. I can't resist because you talked of the pneumococcal vaccine. And one of the things that Gavi does is we have a mechanism called the Advanced Market Commitment, and we're able to negotiate with pharma prices that are affordable to poorer countries and accessible. So it does now is about $2.95 compared to about $100 in the US. So you can see how countries can now afford to get these vaccines for their children. So that's a huge innovation in financing and accessibility. So I want to come back to this issue of vaccines because you take Rotavirus vaccine, which eliminated huge amounts of diarrheal disease, which is a massive killer of young people in the developing world. But there was as great a success story as that is, there was a delay in getting that drug out there because of fear of very rare cases of interseception or reversible case. And so the West ended up removing it from their schedule of vaccinations and delaying that process of getting that drug out there. And I wonder, Bill, if there is sometimes a little bit of a deadly caution, or are we, what's slowing us down? I know as fast as we're moving, what would you change to make us go even faster? Well, I think we need to keep the industry, indeed, to be very high while figuring out how these tiered pricing approaches makes the access issue a lot faster than it would be otherwise. In the case of vaccines, Gavi is able to negotiate a very cost-oriented price so that for the 73-force countries there's not recovery of the R&D or profit. That's going to have to come from the more middle-income and rich countries. In the example you gave, the only gold standard regulators are rich country regulators, European and US regulators. And because the deaths from diarrhea, rotavirus in particular, are very, very low, the bar they set for rotoshield side effects was extremely strict. And to keep the reputation of vaccines as being beneficial and not having refusals that is a challenge even in rich countries, the quality of that regulation, I take no issue with it at all. If the world was super rational, we would have accepted that there was some side effect because the death rate in Africa and India from rotavirus was high enough. But there's really no way to say to those countries, so this is not good enough for the US because their death rate isn't very high. So we moved fairly quickly. We got discounted pricing from GSK and Merck. Over time, we brought in an Indian manufacturer at an even lower price. So it's pretty much a good news story. We have about 80% coverage. That's one of Gaby's focus for its next five-year period is going to be taking that coverage where we have parts of Africa and Nigeria being one of our particular difficulties in getting that up. But right now, the system of regulation, the idea of recovering your cost and getting your profit off of the middle-income and rich countries, that's working pretty well. In addition to the regulatory issue, though, I would agree with Bill there, there is a degree of lag, which I think we collectively have to address, which is the speed at which treatment guidelines get changed all the way through to national level, and then how a physician practicing prescribing behavior changes. This can take years. And how we can work together to get the best new biomedical interventions to patients quicker, I think, is a challenge for all of us. So which one of you wants to get the hate mail? Because I'm about to bring up the anti-vaxxer movement. But this is a real challenge. We've seen a backsliding of polio cases, some fear in Nigeria, and it goes to your home country where you were the health minister twice. Finance minister. And finance minister. I would have dared to be a health minister. Two finance minister and I'm sorry. Finance minister twice, and also you're a foreign affairs, so we're a cheap diplomat. So we've seen that. We've seen a backslide of measles and rubella in the West. I mean, it's kind of scary. And this is one of the, we've talked a lot over the last couple of days about trust. Fundamental to the global health effort is the belief that the vaccines and the other tools of the international health movement are safe and effective. How do you deal with that? Well, Tedros, if you want to take two. Maybe I can start. I mean, I have to say that when you look at the landscape, there's really been a high degree of trust and deliverability in the vaccines we've had in the world. Actually, it's amazing to me. And so we have to stress that. But we also have to look at cultural issues, at fears, at false information that comes in and people get afraid. So there are all sorts of issues. And I think working through the local community has been essential, both for the Alliance with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Bill was talking about Nigeria. He has also done excellent work on the ground, in the case of Polio, for instance, to try to break down some of those cultural barriers and have the local imams, the community leaders, to talk to people and reassure them. I know there was a time we even had to have vaccines brought in from Indonesia, because to make sure that people have trust that it came from an Islamic country and everything was, you know, all right. So, but I don't think we should exaggerate those. There's a lot of trust in the system. And we should not allow people to undermine that. Sanya, I know you wanted to jump in on this. Yes, I think the trust issue that you just mentioned is part of a much bigger problem, because when you talk about global health and its sustainability and the way forward, we have to appreciate that today we are living in a world where, you know, the value of international institutions and the trust and multilateral system is wavering. We are, in fact, seeing a scenario where many of the cross-cutting agendas, such as family planning and reproductive health and sexual health, you know, the value of investment in them is being contested. And Peter Sands just reiterated the wide-ranging ramifications of that setback. And on the other hand, I think paradoxically, there has never been such a time where the value of international institutions and the imperative to invest in them has been more imperative. I mean, I can go on and on with a list of things. For instance, relevant to the health sector, there are three risks that threaten to wipe out the development gains of the last century, pandemics, antibiotic resistance, non-communicable diseases. Tedros will tell you that universal health coverage is his top priority and the top priority of many countries where, and for very good reasons, but in order to institutionalize universal health coverage, you have to play health with a very different stack of guards. You have to engage the private sector in many different ways. A colleague here will tell you that precision medicine is likely to become the default option very soon because of a number of different transformations. And you know, there's this whole technology piece and how institutions outside of the healthcare system are taking the lead on providing solutions for universal health coverage. These are financial institutions and online retail actors. And in order to institutionalize and reap the benefits of all these transformations, you need new standards, new rules, you need workforce re-enlightened, you need stepping up and change in regulatory capacity. And you essentially need changing, stepping up of capacity and all that is not gonna happen if we will not invest in international institutions in the multilateral system, which are consistently under attack. So this whole question about which country is going to take a lead in raising its voice and becoming the world's conscience and which country has the fiscal strength, the fiscal ability, the credibility and the spine to raise the voice are becoming hugely important in this discourse, not just of around global financing for health, but also global development financing. And I think these are big ticket things around which there needs to be a dedicated discourse. Yeah, I wanted to pick up on this point on as we evolve into precision medicine and looking at all the advances. I mean, it's quite striking to me when you think about the conversation here, Gavi Global, from 20 years ago, we knew that infectious disease was where we had the biggest potential for significant impact. We set up the global fund, Bill set up Gavi, we've had tremendous impact and we need to continue to fund those institutions. But if you go to a typical West African country, even with a well run healthcare system, you look at the burden of hypertension. You look at the capacity for basic dialysis and basic medical interventions to manage hypertension or manage any of the consequences of hypertension, much less diabetes or obesity. I see systems that will soon collapse. I mean, I think this is gonna be a significant issue. And I ask myself, do we need a global fund for non-communicable disease or do we need some other mechanism? Because even if we raise the 16 billion for the global fund and we tackle AIDS, TB and malaria, it'll help for the next 10 years. But 20 years from now, we sit in a very different problem and we're still very far from bringing things like precision medicine, gene therapies, et cetera to solve these problems. But that's a great point. I mean, Bill, do we need new financing mechanisms beyond the multilateral groups that we've talked about today? Obviously the Global Fund in Gavi and the Polio Eradication Initiative and the effort for maternal and child health, the financing facility, those are critical. But for things like dealing with or the challenge of antibiotic resistance or for vaccines, for elements where there isn't a large market, should there be another financing mechanism, a model that can help do what the market initiative did for vaccines, think about it in a different way? Well, I'm sure every panel at WEF wants to find some new magic funding source for their particular cause. And if somebody finds that, I'm all for it. I think realistically, the overseas development aid will not be going up very substantially. And in fact, if we don't bring back the track record of global health and really get that story out there, we run the risk with so many distractions including a sort of more turning inward type framework, we could have less money. And we talked, Global Fund could spend 16 billion and Peter and I met and I said, hey, let's set the goal at 14 billion because I think it'll be a challenge to raise 14 billion. If we go beyond that, I'll buy him a drink and we'll celebrate. I will say that I was wrong. But getting this message out, these are issues that are very far away and the slightest mistake that gets made. Some money goes to a training session that never took place and so that's corrupt. Even if it's 1% of the money, that gets a headline whereas the 99% that's saving millions of lives doesn't. So we're not in a position to afford very expensive interventions.  You can do lots of things to tax the back or cut it down. Hypertension is a great example where the drugs are now cheap enough. It's cheap to measure blood pressure. Those blood pressure medicines have been long off patent. So we're funding an organization that's now gonna help get some of those interventions out there. So we always need to see when something comes down and it's practical. But when people talk about precision medicine, the US can't afford precision medicine so I dare anybody else to try. There's many definitions of that but it means designing drugs for very, very small patient groups i.e. N equals one, it's not in the cards. We need to deal with diabetes and obesity and Alzheimer's in rich countries and then bring those costs down. Eventually gene therapy, I do think, will come into a form that can be delivered in developing countries. But first we have to get it into the rich countries and then for sickle cell, HIV cure and in the upstream area, it's super exciting but it'll take quite a bit of time. Yeah. Talking about financing is important. Of course we will need resources but we need to ask another question. Are we really doing the right investments? For instance, our colleagues said hypertension and maybe diabetes or cardiovascular, you name it, the noncommon cable diseases. Many of them are linked with risks and our central strategy should actually be to address those risks. Alcohol, smoking, dietary issues, inactivity, then obesity comes in all colors and forms. So really talking about the investment we're doing whether it's the right one or not is important and that leads me to the right investment that we should do globally and this is primary healthcare. Its investment is actually low but its return is high and we should go back to the basics and focus on health promotion and prevention and we need to really invest in that. Be it for communicable diseases or noncommon cable diseases, the response or the vehicle is primary healthcare and now we are partnering with Gates Foundation and to give focus on primary healthcare as part of the inverse health coverage. Inversal health coverage as a rights issue and ending itself and also a means to development because no country actually can prosper without healthy society. It's a smart investment but within that investment in primary healthcare can actually be quick. Many countries have done it. So the smart and the right investment I think has to be discussed in addition to the financing. One reflection I have is we've been talking I think in global health about primary healthcare and primary healthcare for all for decades and I think actually we've made a lot of progress but I also wonder in the topic about financing how do we finance disruptive ideas? How do we finance entrepreneurs? Because one thing I've noted in our own activities is there is a pretty healthy growth of startups that are really trying to tackle these ideas in very disruptive ways and typically we take ODA funds and we channel them through the traditional paths and maybe that is the right answer but I wonder how much more we might be able to catalyze if we start to support those entrepreneurs and there's good examples, I mean well-known things like the well-known zip line example in blood transfusion or we are supporting a number in Africa but I'm quite struck by the fact that these disruptive ideas to try to get around what seems to be quite significant constraints locally might be something to look at sort of feeding that micro environment along with doing the big top-down push for primary care. One of the disruptive I would like to say I would like to answer that question. One of the most disruptive is political commitment. Political intervention is surgical intervention. Countries who have committed politically and are located domestic resources and who considered external support as catalytic support can move a long, long way. So it's not an economic argument actually in many countries. It is of course but it's more of a political because there are many countries when they have even the resources who can't do it and when you see countries who have done it they have started it actually when their economy is in shambles like the UK for instance immediately after the Second World War when Lord Beverage designed and the NHS started. So that could be disruptive the political commitment but not only mobilizing domestic resources when there is political commitment to health for all or universal health coverage it can also have disruptive ideas to involve the private sector to do its share to make it happen. And does it? Yeah, I just I wanted to say something being a former finance minister about domestic resources. But before that I want to let you know that Gavin Deed has a fund which the Gates Foundation matches and a program called Infuse where we encourage innovators including local ones to come up with ideas that are disruptive that can really help us tackle some of the central challenges we face such as reaching the children who are hard to reach. We've done the easy work now and we are sort of stagnating around 80% in terms of immunization. How do we get past that? How do we reach that difficult to reach child in remote areas and conflict affected areas? And so we have that program. So if you want to do work more with us, check it out. The big point I want to make though is Bill said something about aid is not going to be so much available. We want to encourage yes more resources. Gavin will be going into its replenishment. I don't want to say number here. We're still working on it but whatever we will need it. However, I also want us to focus on domestic resources Dr. Tedros mentioned. We have our program in Gavin encourages countries. Every country no matter how poor must contribute to its immunization program. So and over time as the countries get more and more well off they contribute more and more down the line because we want to work ourselves out of a job. That's it. We want countries to graduate and take over. You know, so helping them to mobilize more of their own resources so that we can be sure of the sustainability of the fund is also key. So as we work on the aid side we also need to work on raising the money and it's hard. We talk of domestic resource mobilization. It's become almost a slogan to answer our questions. But as a former finance minister who actually tried to do it in my own country where the tax to GDP ratio is very low. Particularly after we rebased the economy. We hadn't done it for 24 years. And we more than doubled our GDP. You can imagine what happened to all the ratios. Then trying to strengthen tax administration. You know, so you can close loopholes and get the expertise you need to allow people not to escape from paying their taxes. You know, trying to reset tax policy. Trying to bring more into the tax net to broaden your base because we have a lot of informality in economies. This is a huge task. I know that it's not a health task only. You know, so in our alliance we've got the world bank. We've got, you know, so we have to also partner with people who are not directly health in order to make some of the financing work. But Peter, you know, it goes to just makes a really good point. This isn't as aides so much as it is investment. Investment in one's own country, investment in the world. Bill and Melinda Gates often use the expression that you've gotten a 20 times return on your investment. With the money you've invested so far, I don't wanna quote you if that's wrong. But Peter, I mean, can you talk a little bit about how you make the investment case to the donors since you're gonna be going out there with the very rich tin cup? Yeah, it is true that the returns on investment in global health are incredibly high. I think we were more conservative in our investment case. We said one to 19.  So the idea of getting 19 to one is pretty extraordinary. Now, of course, the real issue here is that the people who pay the money don't get the 19 and that the returns are much broader in society, but they are so huge that really you can tell a compelling case. And also, these infectious diseases aren't static. There is no kind of middle ground. You are either winning against them or they are beating you. And the economics of being on the back foot against AIDS, TB and malaria or the diseases that you get hit by a vaccine, you know, these are terrible economics. The point about disruption, I think, is a really interesting one. And we tend to think about disruption in terms of sort of medical innovations and so on. But also, I think a thing that is going on and I give others on this panel credit for this is that we're getting a lot of disruption and innovation in terms of delivery models of different ways of reaching or organizing programs, whether it's zero TB cities or other sorts of program like that. But we're also breaking down silos. I think through the global action plan, there's been a huge amount of often painful discussion between all the multilateral entities about how do we work together better? And suddenly between GAVI and the Global Fund, there is now an intense dialogue on every single aspect of what we do from boring administrative things like our shared cafeteria and building and cybersecurity to shared programming in the field. And I think breaking down those silos and they also occur in the clinical profession. I mean, we should have much closer integration between HIV treatment and TB treatment. But we run into professional silos because these people are in the national TB program and these people are in the national AIDS program and we've got to force these things. One dichotomy that always irritates me is people talking about sort of vertical or horizontal as if they're sort of in opposition. So in some people's view, the Global Fund and indeed GAVI are the archetypal vertical interventions, disease-focused, not caring about the system, just focused on the disease, or you have horizontal interventions building the healthcare system. I mean, the reality is you will never get rid of one of these diseases unless you build a system. And a system that isn't coping with these diseases isn't really a very effective system. So you need to do both. And actually, a big chunk of Global Fund programming is actually spent on health systems. We spend about a billion dollars a year on health systems, which actually makes us the largest multilateral provider of grants for health systems. So I think we need to be prepared to challenge a lot of these kind of paradigms of its vertical or horizontal loads, these particular silos of activity because that's not what patients care about. Peter, as a banker, do you think social impact bonds are gonna lead to a big shift over time in financing? I'm afraid to say my many years as a banker have made me actually quite skeptical about a lot of financial innovation. Financial innovation is brilliant at reassigning risks, changing the timing profile, or changing incentives. It is not a magic money machine. It doesn't create some unknown pull of resources. And if you look at what happened with Gary and the Global Fund, what you had was a pooling of resources, a way of changing incentives with IFIM, a changing of the timing profile of the money to make it more optimized. So you can attract more money because it has greater impact, but the fundamental thing that innovative finance does is give you greater impact. I don't want to sound too dismissed. Social impact bonds have their role, but let's not kid ourselves that there are some sort of wonderful, silverability-type things out there that are gonna transform the fundamental challenges we've got. Yeah, I just wanted to say a quick word on IFIM, the International Finance Facility for Immunization, which is an instrument for raising resources that Peter alluded to. I think the key issue we need to think about is what does it do? We are about saving lives. So if we can find a way of getting resources faster sooner to save more lives, that could be, that's a very valid objective. So what this instrument does is with the securitization of aid. So instead of being given five million or 10 million every year, you say, look, we have these resources, we know we are coming, we can securitize this, and front load. So this instrument, we go to the market and we actually raise resources on the capital market to be repaid later. What does it allow us to do? We can save more lives faster sooner. So I think financial innovation, where we need a sense of urgency, can be very, very important. And we've raised $6.5 billion so far, including even a Sukuk bond recently, a Sharia compliant bond. So I think there's a very fun place for some of these instruments. Yeah, we've been using these mechanisms to fund, to finance bridges and tunnels. So, Sonia, what are you... Three quick reflections on what's being discussed. Firstly, this conversation is veering towards the importance of the global funds, infectious disease funds, and I think that there are no two opinions about it. They've been enormously helpful, enormously impactful, they need to be supported. But the reality of the matter is that conversations about graduation and transition are already happening, and they're also happening at the country level. So it is important within that context to ascertain where the financial vulnerabilities are. And to be very clear about creating the transition frameworks well ahead of time, because even if we're looking at a five-year horizon, we should be prepared with the transition frameworks, we should be prepared with very explicit and predictable co-financing arrangements, because these need to be sorted out ahead of time. Secondly, there's this conversation about non-communicable diseases. I don't think that there is an appetite for a new global fund-like initiative for NCDs, we all know that. But I think when we talk about a new financing instrument and a new architecture for non-communicable diseases, for which there is ample justification, we may be talking about an explicit integration mandate, because that exists at several points across the whole spectrum of health systems and global health institutions. For example, at a country level, non-communicable medicines can be included into national essential drug lists. The several waves of surveys that USAID, that UNICEF, and that the World Bank supports at a population-based level could integrate modules for NCDs, that does not necessitate creating vertical structures. For instance, PEPFAR and the Global Funds for ATB and malaria have done remarkably well in terms of creating primary healthcare systems for chronic care.  So we do not have to create a global fund worth X billion and with 400 staff in Geneva, the NCDs piece could be addressed number one with an explicit integration mandate and financing instruments around that. And of course, as Ted was mentioned, there is this whole other piece about the whole of government approach around tobacco, food systems, physical activity, alcohol, which needs to be mobilized through different instruments which are not in resource-intensive. Paradoxically, they can generate resources for prevention activities through e-mark levies, as we all know, and just a 30-second response, I cannot resist to what Nikozi you said. I think tax can be one of the most important innovative instruments because we talk about debt swaps and we talk about bonds and the rest of it, but we have to realize from a country vantage point that anti-taxivation efforts, money laundering efforts and anti-corruption efforts have perfect synergy because the monies that are whisked away by tax evasion, on the one hand, are used for money laundering and terrorist financing and on the other hand, they take away the money that is needed to invest in human capital investments. So I think- This is my favorite bit of innovative finance for her. Basic blocking and tackling to have good tax design and collection. I think, absolutely right. I just had a quick point. I mean, one thing I reflect on is one of the things on the global fund that focused the mind on AIDS, TB and malaria. And every time I hear the word non-communicable diseases, I think that's a lot of diseases. And I wonder, it's hypertension, diabetes and COPD or whatever the University of Washington quality list would tell us. Maybe that helps focus the mind because I think right now it just seems like such an insurmountable task when we say non-communicable disease. It'd be like if you are the global fund of communicable disease, I think you'd have a harder time raising money. So what else also focuses the mind is the fear of backsliding. Peter, you mentioned that a little bit. And Bill, I know you've mentioned that. But where are we most in danger? Where do you see as the sort of critical places where if we don't move forward, we're going to move back? And also, can we just talk a little bit about the demographics, the very young cohort in Africa and much of the developing world and how dangerous that is when you get communicable disease framework? Well, the economic development in Asia in general has been strong enough that the really the best stories of graduation where they'll be able to maintain the health systems are countries like India, Indonesia, Vietnam. Plenty of challenges there, but overall, those are really good stories. Africa's challenging and Nigeria is graduating from Gaby. That's been lengthened out, which was a really great move that Gaby made. That was sort of a quid pro quo to go to the country and say, okay, we're going to smooth this thing out over a 10-year period instead of a five-year period if you step up to your part. And so there's ongoing work to make sure that that goes very well. I do think the consensus around global health is fragile because we've had some enlightened politicians who've believed in these causes. We had President Bush who started PEPFAR and got the US into Global Fund. We had increases in the UK aid levels, the German aid levels, but if you look at the awareness of what's been achieved here, people may be more aware about the criticisms than they are about the success. So getting a good new story out is very hard when it's a very far away thing and there's a bunch of acronyms. Even the diseases, we assume that they live it like all of us on the panel do and that can make it less of a story. And yet, if we do it right, it is a very strong story. But we don't have broad voter awareness that locks in even the current level of generosity. I want to add to what Bill said, I think it would be important to invest on alignment of the SDG, I mean the Global Health Players. We have signed 11 agencies including Global Fund, Gavi and others and we have an SDG action plan now to align, accelerate and also account. And this will help us to align not only at the global level but as Peter said to align at the country level. So that can have better impact actually when we align and based on the country's priorities of course. That's one and second we're doing replenishments for Global Fund, for Gavi and so on. We need to have a united voice on that. What do we need in terms of resources for global health together? And then how do we mobilize it with united voice would really help even to convince the donors and so on. So this is just what I would like. And then I fully agree. We have many stories which we don't really tell and we have to tell our stories. And we should tell to the taxpayers through active media campaign what their money is actually doing in the lives of millions and what has changed as you have shown in the last 20 years, thank you. Peter, you got 20 seconds to make your elevator pitch to the world governments. We can end the three biggest infectious disease epidemics in the world if we want to. Why wouldn't we? And with that, I want to thank our panelists, Peter Sands, Sanya Nishtar, Vaisnau Sinhaan and Josie Alkanja-Iriyala, Tadros Adinom Agabereesis and Bill Gates. Thank you all very much, thank you. We have a couple of people still coming in the doors and welcome to Mr. O'Bennett. Good morning everybody. I know we have a couple of people still coming. Welcome to the World Economic Forum. Thank you all for coming so early as we kick off this Davos. It's a privilege for me to be here. I'm Andrew Ross Orkin of the New York Times and CNBC. We have a remarkable conversation that I hope we're gonna have over the next hour and we're gonna bring you all into this conversation. Really about the world economy, the world economy, the world economy. All into this conversation. Really about the new architecture, the new market dynamics with which I think we're all living and trying to grapple with. And those things involve everything from the idea of scale, the idea that every business, every person I imagine involved in business in this room is always thinking about how they can be bigger. And what does bigness mean? Is bigness good? Google provides us all sorts of different search, search options and video and all sorts of things. And Brian Morinhana, Bank of America, I can use my ATM machine and get money in all sorts of ways around the world.  So we can go all over the world with everybody. So there are benefits of scale, clearly. But there are also downsides and we will talk about all of that. And we're also gonna talk about the global economy and where we are in a world where we keep trying to expand and become more global at a time where maybe that's becoming a little bit more complicated. And we will have that conversation. Here who is with us today, we have a remarkable group. Brian Morinhana from Bank of America is the CEO of that company. Raghu Rajan is here. He is the former research director at the IMF, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India and now a professor of finance at the Chicago Booth School of Business in Chicago. Ningou is here. He's the chairman of Sino-Cam, one of the four largest chemical agriculture companies in China and can speak specifically to the idea of scale given your size. Steve Schwartzman is here, chairman and CEO co-founder of Blackstone and Ruth Porat. You know how many titles, but we'll call you SVP and CFO of Alphabet, better known for many of us as Google. Thank you all for being here. I'm gonna go Raghu for first, because I know you have thought a lot about this idea of scale. You've written a book that's coming out about competition and where we are in this world. And you have actually perhaps a more balanced view of this than people might think in that I think you have thought about the good sides of scale, but also the other side of scale. And I thought you could maybe start this conversation. And I'd start with this. At a time when there seems to be hand-wringing in the United States and Europe, maybe less so in China and we'll talk about that. Is the hand-wringing politically on both sides? And by the way, you get it on every side. Is it right? Meaning, is there too little competition or too much? Okay, well, I guess I'm supposed to maintain the balance on this panel. That's why I'm not wearing a tie, other than Ruth, of course. Look, today we benefit tremendously from scale. There are scale economies which are passed through to the customer in many ways. There are benefits of efficiency in these global corporations that we see on this panel. And that's all to the good. I mean, Google.


All right guys, welcome back to your boy Bigsy back in action. Today we're doing video number two in the success series. The first video went up on January 1st, 2015 and the video in a nutshell is about how you and I are going to make 2015 our best year ever. We're gonna talk about all sorts of things. Tips, strategies, techniques, ideas, anything that it takes to help make us as successful as possible. Pronounce your words, Curtis. Come on, do better. But with that aside guys, there is one special topic that you need that I'm going to start with and that topic is this. You must, in order to achieve anything great in life, whatever it is, you must have a burning desire to do, achieve or accomplish something. When I say desire, please understand that I'm not talking about wanting something or wishing for something. I'm talking about desiring something. It's got to burn white-hot. You have to have a chief definite aim or a chief definite goal in life and then push all your chips in to achieve it. That is the most important thing. Now, I'm not trying to say, you know, negative things about anything else. You need to have a plan. You have to have a strategy. You have to be able to execute, come up with new ideas. You've got to be able to deal with, you know, mistakes and temporary defeats and work well with other people and positive mental attitude. All of those things are necessary to achieve something in life, but none of those things count if you don't have something you're going after. Something that just sort of consumes you and burns up inside and makes you want to do that. Everybody that makes it big in this world has to have that. Now, if you don't have that right now, I'm not putting you down because a lot of people don't have it. In fact, most people never figure out what that is. And that's really sad, but a lot of people go through life and they don't get there. But a lot of people do. And for those of you that are watching this, I'm going to assume that a lot of you, and it's just a guess, but it's probably a good one, you want to be a YouTuber. You want to make a living off of YouTube. You want to be a YouTube star.  Maybe you want to be a comedian. Maybe you want to be a gamer that records gameplay footages and makes it big. Whatever it is, doesn't matter. In order to achieve something, you must have this burning desire. You can't have a plan B. You can't have a, you know, it would be nice if this happened, but if it doesn't happen, you know, go do something else. No, can't do that. When you know what you want, when you know what you desire, go for it. That's my suggestion here. Now, I could talk and talk and talk about this, but I want to give you an idea. I want to give you a, I guess you'd call it, we'll talk about George.  But I want to talk to you about George. George is CEO of Freedom. Freedom, as you know, gets 10 million, I don't know, gets it's made 10 million dollars in its first year. That's what I meant to say. It gets 1.5 billion views every 30 days. We have 80,000 partners in the network. I'm not bragging. These are just facts. These are just stats. And George is the CEO of it. And if you didn't know better, you would think that George is some superstar guy that just had everything in the world given to him and boom, he's just like magic.  And I know this because I've known George for 25 years. I met him when I was 13 years old. We played computer together and then, you know, we hung out. I was really good friends with his brother, who's now the CEO of this company, Mirko. And, you know, it's really good friends and, you know, hang out.  He's a nerd and we played badminton on Friday nights. We played badminton and I'd show up normal. He'd show up in green shorts with black socks up to his knees because I don't know. That's how we did. But my point here is he's a regular guy. He grew up. He has a regular family. He's got a regular upbringing. He's a super nice guy. He's nicer than he is in the videos. Make no mistake.  Because when you look at his videos, you can't know.  But my point is he's a regular guy. And for 25 years, I've known him 21 of those years. He was just a regular dude. He went, he had a job. He did his thing, like I just said. He used to work for Microsoft and he would work during the day and he would watch movies at night on his big projector screen, yada, yada, yada. But one day it changed. He got that burning desire. And I know this because I remember the day that he called me. He quit his job at Microsoft.  He drove back to Canada. And when he was stuck at the border, he's like, hey, Curtis, how are you doing? I'm doing all right, George. Well, I'm coming to Canada and I'm going to start a company and it's going to be hugely successful one day. And we're going to keep doing this until we're awesome, until we make it. You know what? I want to be the CEO or I want to be a boss of a company. Not because he's a bossy type guy, but he just wants to run a company. You know, he wants to make it big. He wants to promote, you know, kindness and cheer and do motivational speaking and work with people he wants to work with on terms that he wants to work on. And then he was just going to persist until it happened. And it was a crazy burning desire. I've never seen anything like it. And anyway, people tried to talk to him.  But no, George knew what he wanted and he made it happen. George is just like you and me. And the day that he changed was the day I knew and everybody knew. Now, in hindsight, he was going to make it. That's the lesson for you. If you if that day happens for you, do it. When you figure out what you want to do in life and you've got that desire, doesn't matter what anybody else says. Do whatever you need to do, make it happen, guys. That is my success story today. We talked about George. We're going to be back tomorrow or no next week. Pardon me, and we've got a whole new topic. I think it's positive mental attitudes. The next one, yeah, you got a PMA. But today's video, yeah, you've got to have that desire. Figure it out. What is it that you want to do in life? What drives you? And when you know, push all your chips in and go for it. It's your boy, Batesy, checking out. Thank you for watching. Thank you for thumbsing up. I'll be back soon. Cheers.


Police set a passenger on an Asiana Airlines flight who opened a door on the plane minutes before it landed in Taegu, South Korea, on May 26 was not of sound mind after detaining him. He is mentally struggling right now we could not investigate him properly due to his state, said Kim Jong-chun, a police officer from the Taegu Dongbu Police Station. The man, in his 30s and identified only by his surname Lee, told police that he opened the door because he was uncomfortable and wanted to get off the plane quickly, local cable news channel YTN said, citing the Taegu Dongbu Police Station. He also told police he was stressed after losing his job recently. The man, in his 30s and identified only by his surname Lee, told police that he opened the door because he was uncomfortable and wanted to get off the plane quickly, local cable news channel YTN said, citing the Taegu Dongbu Police Station.


Hello, and welcome back to the craft box. My name is Brent and today we're in episode 131 There was a one-on-one death walkthrough last episode if you haven't checked it out You made our way into Dandara and a lot of stuff and today we're starting by talking to you the black knight My obligation here is done. Hmm. Have you heard stories of the Knights of the Silver Rose gathering somewhere? I too shall go to Caliburn and hope to serve with them against the evil pen dragon Okay, let us hit over to Melanercy again Now you need a silver rose from the garden If you breach the wall bell regard will fall and that seems a waste of a perfectly good tower Go up to the wall and I will enchant the rose bush to meet you take one silver rose back to Queen Gwendolyn Okay Let's do that then Queen Gwendolyn once more. I don't know what's wrong, but like I'm there as you approach the wall. You're here in Melasin sweetly singing a green spell of gardening I don't know what's up with the text. It's not usually like that the rose bush grows and extends one Perfect silver rose blossom for you to take maybe I'm just losing my mind slowly. Oh, we need to collect it as well Good job Yeah, why is it like this what? Wade Wasn't like that before no, oh Sometimes it happens a lot, but I also don't know why how to fix it I Always forget how to fix it. It's happened to me quite a few times, but I don't know why it's like that Detail, maybe I think it was because it's Usually it was detail. Okay, that's weird Okay, Gwendolyn The wizard has returned with a silver rose you have performed every task beautifully and so I recognize your display of virtue I dub the night of the weird Yeah, if you hope to complete your quest We must return to Caliban to rally the Knights of the silver rose against the Pendragon However, before I leave I must ensure the safety of Dundara I need you to help build a pact with the good fairies take this offer of an alliance to dear dream Madden Roy fire hilt and Shane McGavin then return Okay, I'm confused now why I Maybe I'm just losing my mind Probably probably just losing my mind to be honest who knows um anyway Let's hit on and create this pact yay But but but but but do But do back into the weird we need to go all the way to the wild So far away I'm gonna run there because I don't care Tainted tree and Quickly past them. They're not too bad anymore. Once you get past them Do the wild Let us go please game Thank you Dear tree. She's the fairy. I think pretty sure Pretty sure she's the fairy Yeah, she is she's right over here Hello dear tree Look at you a knight of the weird a pact with Dundara. Of course. I love packs That's good Still weird. I don't know. Maybe I have to restart who knows. I'll fix it after this episode probably when I next cut who knows I'm just a simple blacksmith youngster, but me and the pony corn And our brothers and sisters will assist Dundara if we don't help you stand against the froudlings and the evil pen dragon and his wild hunt Who will good on you to lead the way? Okay, and who's the last one? Wretched fire. Oh, he must be the person in the village of fire elves. Yes, he is He sure is okay Okay Around here Mistwood yay mistwood gotta get that mistwood yay Okay firehold a Strategic alliance with Dundara against the froudlings. We'll happily stand with them shooting fiery arrows at the bodies Okay, then and we'll be back to Gwyndolin Shooting fiery arrows. Your village seems a bit less fiery So I don't know if you have fiery arrows But anyway, I Quite like the wild. That's quite nice. We have to go the one thing. I really dislike about Avalons you have to go back and forth between places a lot. It's kind of annoying Most of the other like Places you just go to one place and do that area and then continue on with the next one Whereas like here you just Go back and forth back and forth back and forth back and forth back and forth all the time Which is really annoying and switch in this part Like from the wild onwards you're kind of just Switching between the wild Keer Leon Abbey Road the wild the word the weird We said the word Dundara and then the wild and then yeah, and then back to Abbey Road. It's kind of weird Maybe that's why it's called the weird because it's weird. Oh Oh, I might be onto something there. Oh Okay, let's not get to Over it Let us continue Dundara, it's also kind of a long way Like just kind of just kind of Okay Lowed lowed lowed lowed low lowed lowed lowed lowed lowed lowed thank you Gwendoline you are over here. Hello Everyone agreed to the idea you have the silver tongue of a true envoy I Need your help crafting a protective spell to watch over and guard Dundara in my absence There is a dragon skull buried at dragon hill. Please fetch it back here. Yeah, I'm not making this mistake twice I know it's still the same place but we are going to mark wooden chests. Let's see how much you give us 130 was last time Let's see 130 is still what we're going for. Okay, I understand You hate me game Sneaky sneaking around those from Mori and over here.  I mean, it's not too far Getting all the reagents. Yes, I'm actually running one stone block because we had to use some for dragon spy craft And some fellow isn't he a Dragon skull clearly requires a working of death school necromancy Just as well. I'm in the death school in order to empower it You need to collect necromanic vigor from death selves. You can find them in the burial ground Okay, she told you we'd need it Let us go and defeat some of these but I am dear so surely I can Enchant it, you know, no, okay That's cool. We'll do the first bow on camera just Because we can and see how many we get and if we get to then I'm gonna do another one on the camera because why not Why not? What's my deck looking like? It's looking fresh. That's good. Okay Death though. We need paints not paints prisms Might as well just use mass prison me Why not, you know, they're both death. So Why not? Okay, what do we have here? We have a They have a lot of health 3690 I'm gonna have to start carrying extra blades soon. I think until we get to as ticker and have sharpen blade because we are kind of Weak at this stage especially when we don't crit Well, my mouse must be dying. It's slowing down Well, we're gonna do this then just keep blade in this pose Wait for the mess fake mess fake mess prison. This is why I kept my wanted yay I might start carrying duck packed Because we're gonna need it soon We'll use mess prism first time casting mess prism. Here we go. Wow so impressive. Oh Okay, well might as well not use a wanted then if they're just gonna Continue we only have one so Oh well We'll do this And I mean we can always Scarecrow twice, so it's not too bad So we do have to scarecrowism at all times, so And we can always reshuffle if we need to so yeah, I might still carry some extra blades just Okay, so I might start carrying on the duck packed. I think Strongly consider They're starting to get a bit too much health. Yeah Go up and prove We'll start using TC's, but I don't really want to use TC's too much because that is just ridiculous Bum bum bum just as well we carry two mess prisons. Mm-hmm Raid the favorite spell apparently Do-do-do-do Okay, I did like nothing 300 148 health that's so much, you know There's a lot lucky Okay, let me know Do No one Skeleton pirate haven't seen this one in a while. Okay, that didn't do too much either. We've got so much death resist.  I think it's smitten Smoked you have been smoked.  I'll be back once I've collected the other three necroman... necromanic vigas Okay, I am back You got the necromanic vigour hard fought but well earned Take the dragon skull and the necromanic figure to aode. He will perform the final charm of making Gwendolyn wants to create a bone dragon defender. That is a powerful working Ah, but I see you already have the reagent I do not know all of the charm of making for it is one of the most potent spells in the spider But I know enough Ah No take the dragon skull to the plinth outside the wall and place it there Great and young good what it is travel throughout Avalon and do battle with those who have trapped the raven Then return the ravens to the rookery cages here. Okay, that was not too bad to be honest The words of the druid Rattled in your head heavy with power as you place the dragon skull upon the plinth There's a crackle of mana you have brought a semblance of life to what was once just bone and dirt a fearsome guardian indeed Yep, that's what death can do. I've done it many times Okay, yeah, so it wasn't too bad. I've decided that I will put duck packed in Just for now at least Just to give extra damage and it does work quite well impressive work. Now. I feel Dandara is well defended I Stored away my armor when I came here hoping for solitude and peace But clearly it is time to take up arms again. Please collect my armor from that chest over there Sure thing Gwendolyn. Hello This armor and these weapons have seen much use over the years. She is a true warrior queen Okay, true warrior queen. That's that's cute Thank you. It's been too long since I've worn this battle garb. I will change when we get to Caliburn There is no more reason to terry here. Meet me back at the Knights Hall at Abbey Road Okay, let us head on back to Abbey Road and I think then we will end off the episode But you know, it wasn't too bad. I think the first time I got to which you saw and then I got I Think it was like None two one. So wasn't too bad Kind of bad, but like not too bad like I've had worse. So yeah and dark pack definitely helps It actually means I can kill first time even with fortify or weakness or whatever they put at me So yeah, and I don't die to mobs Usually so it's not too bad taking that small amount of health away from me So ye but we're as Gwendolyn. Oh, she's in the um thrown area. That's cool first time in here Bum bum bum bum bum bum pump buddy But she is not here What Where are you? Yikes. This is not good. What is wrong? Let's try again. If not, we will read a lot. Ah. You're... yeah. That was weird. Really weird. Okay. So next episode we will head over to the Bane Worm and slay it, kill it, defeat it, whatever you want to call it. But anyway, thank you for watching, we're going to leave it like and subscribe, and if you're very subscribed press the bell so you know exactly when I post another video. And remember Kraft, outside the box.


Laura Kennington here. I've teamed up with Ellis Brigham to bring you some free workouts designed to improve your strength and conditioning for the trails. So this session today is all about laying down some good foundations.  Warm muscles just perform much more efficiently. It's good to get the oxygen flowing to all of them before you head out and as part of that we're going to be doing some glute activation work. So glutes are the biggest muscle group we have in the body and it's really important to recruit them for running. If you spend a lot of time sat down you'll find that your glutes actually switch off and if you head out for a run before waking them up a bit the smaller muscle groups get involved to try and compensate and that's how a lot of running injuries occur. So for example if you've ever had really grumpy calf muscles this video is especially important for you. The second bit of this is to do after your run. So I'm going to go through some maintenance stretching, some body maintenance just to keep everything nice and supple and nice and functional. Okay so now you've been out for your run and you're back home and this is a nice five to ten minute stretch routine that you can do afterwards. So by now your muscles should be nice and warm which means that we get a much deeper stretch. Regularly stretching to maintain or even improve your flexibility and range of movement is really important again for preventing injuries especially for those of you that spend a lot of time sat at your desk you'll find that your hip flexors can get really tight. This is especially important for cyclists as well. So doing this a few times a week just keeps everything nice and happy.


So this part is not going to be very pedagogical, but it's kind of a bigger value. But after that, I will start after this overview part, I will start more systematic presentation. So we want to kind of, the idea is to get some sort of universal perspective on the variants of manifolds from kind of quantum field series. And then one kind of can realize that six dimensions is quite specific in physics, especially for this purpose. So six is a maximal dimension where we can have interacting 50 with supersymmetry. So we need, so first of all, we need supersymmetry from kind of mathematical perspective. We need supersymmetry to construct topological quantum field series via written construction. So we need to produce co-homological TQTs. And so what is known about interacting quantum field series with supersymmetry in six dimensions? So usually in physics, people are interested in what is called theory, it's an infrared kind of, like one of the particular examples of series, which we can study our so-called conformal field series. And so one can get the notion of six dimensional super conformal field series. So this is a quantum field series. So QFTs in 6D with super symmetry. So super conformal theory is a certain extension of our, is a certain extension of the conformal symmetry where we extend our Lie algebra by some odd generators. So there is a proposed classification of such theories. So first of all, they are usually divided into two types, which are called 2,0 and 1,0. The corresponding Lie algebra of the super conformal symmetry with respect to which those series, those field series are invariant are following. So this is some sort of standard super group notation, OSP 8 slash 4 and OSP 8,2. So this is the exact meaning of this. It's not going to be important for us. What will be important for us is that, so how can we label? So what is the classification? So suppose we fix a certain super conformal field, super conformal symmetry is 2,0, 1,0. And then there is a statement that the series from this first class, they label it by simply g, which is a simply-laced Lie algebra. So those are known to be classified by Ad or U1. So the world of 1,0 or super conformal theory is more rich. So they're classified by, at least there is a proposed classifications, which says that they label it by y's. So let's say you know this y, which is a singularity in elliptically fibrous collabial c-fold. So in fact, so this is this symmetry is smaller than this one. So those guys should be actually embedded as a special class of these guys. And this embedding is realized when the singularity is just Ad singularity times elliptic f. Ad singularity corresponding to simply-laced the algebra g. So what else is known about? So this can be understood as a data. A data, so in principle, even those 6D super conformal fields here are not defined. But we know, mathematically not well defined, we know that they should be, in principle, they should be defined, expected to be defined by given this data, there is a particular theory. You can consider this data as an analog, for example, of the data of 3D n equals 4 theory, which was mentioned this morning. So there, the data was a choice of group and it's a presentation. So here, instead of that data, you have this input. But what's important is that they are not gauge series. So it's not really clear what to do with them. So in particular, there is no Lagrangian description in them. And so, roughly, so morally, how you can try to look at them and you can, this is a, you also can see where the problem lies. This is a contains, so those series, they contain a theory of non-Abelian germs. So instead of connection, in the usual theory, you can imagine you have a job, which is defined when you have an Abelian group. And moreover, there is a restriction that there is a, so this job has a three-form curvature and this curvature should be sold. If reduced on a swan, often can be described in terms of usual gauge in. So in particular, if I take 2,0 SCFT, so denoted tau, so this would be labored by some Lie algebra, simply Lie algebra G when reduced on a swan is equivalent to a certain supersymmetric version of gauge theory. This is five-dimensional gauge theory with gauge group G such that the Lie compact, such that the Lie algebra of G is, so there are certain ambiguities how exactly you choose a G because there can be different choices of big G, which satisfies this condition. But let me know not to go into those details. Any questions so far? So now let me give you some examples of how can one use. So OK, no, just before coming to examples, let me mention. So the idea of how we can use this was the second general idea, how we can use those guys to produce environs of molecules. So let me fix 6D SCFTT. So you can imagine fixing one of these, fixing by the data, which I listed before, either for 2,0 case you choose a simply Lie algebra for 1,0 case you choose a singularity in elliptically fiber collab of three-fold. And sigma 6 minus D, so this would be a 6 minus D dimensional manifold, possibly with some defects. So this may be defects you can understand some sort of puncture, some sort of puncture sensitive, some market points present, marked by some additional data. So now I'm being very generic. And so if I reduce my 6D theory on this manifold, this gives me and I do what is called a topological twist. So this is a general procedure, which starting from supersymmetric theory produces topological quantum field theory. This should produce me a dimensional topological quantum field theory. Again, this is a TFT. Here we consider TFTs of co-homological, right? Here, so in general what I want, I fix this guy. So this guy is some special thing. So I twist in remaining, in general what I do is just a twist in the remaining D dimensions. But I also can do, so in general, I can do both twisting, so in general I should do both twisting in the remaining D dimensions, but I also can do twisting here. So I get a D dimensional TFTs, label it by, which I have known by Z, label it by the choice of my 6D theory and this sigma 6 minus. So in particular what this means is that if I, for example, if I consider something like a partition function of the 6D theory T on a 6-manifold, which is a product of a D-manifold times the sigma 6 minus D, this is a partition function of this effective TFT. And so in general, so if this is a closed manifold, then this should be some number, but in general I want to understand this thing as usual as we are atia, axioms, symmetric, monoidal function from the category of D dimensional broadisms to the category of vector spaces. So I will always consider vector spaces over complex numbers. And more usually we want to consider vector spaces graded by some abelian group gamma. So in general, the vector spaces by themselves, they can be infinite dimensional, but what we want is that in fixed grading, it's a finite dimensional vector space. So again, this just means that if we take a D minus 1 dimensional manifold, we get a certain graded vector space. And if we take a broadism between those manifolds, we get a linear map between those vector spaces. And of course, for closed D dimensional manifold, we just get a complex number. Yes. So for example, in particular, so if this is a closed manifold, then this is just a complex number, which is a differential invariant. So by TQFT here, so broadisms here means smooth broadisms. So in general, we expect the quantum field theory. To define quantum field theory in general, we need to use smooth structure. So this is a general picture. And now I would like to mention some examples how we can, using this construction, produce some known or also some known differential variants and also predict some new invariants. And after that, I will focus on some particular cases. Well, it depends what kind of, so the grading can come from two parts. So first, it can come from the symmetry of this guy. So it can be some isometrics of this guy, which will give you, so this vector space will be representation of those isometrics. And the gradings will be weights of the isometrics. This is one source of grading. The other source of grading is the global symmetry of my six-dimensional theory, which is unbroken by this topological twist, which is residual R symmetry, what is called R symmetry. And so in general, this can come from global symmetries of my 6D theory, the grading. And isometrics of this sigma. So now one can play this game, pick some sigma and see what happens. But so let me give you some examples. So example, which probably many are familiar with. So let me take t to be of this 2,0 type, where I fix my g to be a c2, the algebra. Then so in particular, so if you can see the sigma, so d equals to 4 and sigma 2 to be t2 with complex structure tau, then this z, t, su2, t2, and 4. So let me write it in words. Is a generating function for buffer written environments and 4. So generating function with respect to variable q, which is related to tau as e to the 2 pi i. So buffer written environments, so I believe Lotter Getscher will tell you more about it. But this is some environments constructed from the instanton by studying solutions of essentially insta. Well, in general, this is an environment constructed from considered model space of solutions or so-called buffer written equations, which in certain cases just can be reduced to considering model spaces of instantons. So I keep t to be the same, but let me take d equals 5 and sigma 1 just this one. Then if I consider, so now I get a, I can understand this as some 5-dimensional, well, OK, 5-dimensional to give t up to some subtleties, but let me not talk about them. So this is the, I believe, S1. But what is important here is that, so for four manifold, this should give me some vector space. So this is a vector space, and it will be z-graded. And z-grading comes from the u1 symmetry which rotates S1. But moreover, one can show that it has a structure vertex operator. So this is one of the cases which I want to consider in more detail in my lectures. And so in a sense, this categorifies the case 1a because then this thing can be considered just a trace of the space, the character of the space with respect to this grading. And categorifies 1a and explains a modularity property. So it has a well-known conjecture that these generative functions for what written variants should be modular forms. You can also consider something going to actually lower dimension. So take d, well, let me take sigma 2 to be, again, t2, but consider this tq of t on a c manifold, close c manifold. Then this should be some vector space, and this should coincide with this SL2c floor, and there's some homology theory which categorifies Casone and variant for c manifold. So another interesting case. So let me keep t to be, again, of this 2,0 type. So it will be labelled by just a simple list, the algebra g. And then take case 2a, consider a sigma to be a disk times s1. So this is a solid torus, the boundary is a torus, and it will have a complex structure. So then if I consider my 6d series on a disk times s1 times c manifold, then this would give you invariance which there was recent, some interesting letters in this environment. So far, they mathematically well defined only for some subclass of c manifolds, and they are denoted by z hat. So it will depend on the choice of this algebra g and a c manifold, and it's valued in c racing q with integer coefficients. But they are related to a more familiar environment. So if I take q to be a limit of the series, so this is a convergent series. If I take a limit q to be a root of unity, so this should reduce to what is called beaten raciotichin to rife of m3. Yes, well, you have to, there's some choice of boundary condition involved here. And this choice of boundary condition will, so there is a choice of boundary conditions which, some natural choice of set of boundary conditions which are labelled by a set of spin-c structures on a 3-manifold. So this has additional label dependence on the spin-c structure of a 3-manifold. And so the beaten raciotichin to rife environment is reproduced by taking a certain linear combinations, of those guys with respect to the spin-c structures. So if one takes sigma to be just a disk, then for a 3-manifold, we now get a vector space which will be z2 graded. And this can be understood as an analog of Havanov-Rozansky homology for closed 3-manifolds. So the Havanov-Rozansky homologies is what categorifies John's polynomial of nodes. So the raciotichin to rife construction produces both invariants of links and closed 3-manifolds. So the same construction can produce invariants. The same construction which produces invariants, like John's polynomial invariants of links, produces beaten raciotichin to rife invariant of closed 3-manifolds. So this can be understood as the analog of this categorification by Havanov-Rozansky homology of the colored John's polynomial. Yes, example 1 and 2. So well, here it's a bit yes. So well, there's no kind of very direct relation, because here you have something like a disk. But in a sense, there is a natural. So in a sense, these z-hards can be understood as elements. So since the boundary of your solid torus is t2, for example, these z-hards can be understood as elements in this SL2C floor homology on a 3-manifold. But for example, I mean, so here, for example, you can see the 3-manifold and disk times s1. So you get some q-series. So in many ways, these q-series are kind of similar to q-series which generate function for work with environments. But they don't have model properties. But in some simple 3-manifolds, they have mock model properties. Well, it depends who you are, but there is some belief. So instead of DOA assigns for a 4-manifold, the analog here should be some logarithmic DOA assigned to a 3-manifold. At least this is what happens for some simple 3-manifold. So let me consider example. So I'm close to the end of the list examples. This is the important ones. So if I take sigma to be two-dimensional, and I take it to be s2 with two marked points. So there will be some additional data assigned at these points, which I'm not kind of some universal data assigned to this point, which I'm not going to talk about this now. And well, I take, so here, let me take g to be u1, something very simple. Again, in this 2.0 case. Then the statement that is extra. Then you can realize, in this way, is I work. So part of this data is actually one of the punctures is colored by spincy connections on the 4-manifold, which fixes the other. And the other marked point is universal. There is no color choice. And one can try to generalize this. So take sigma to be s2 is, say, n marked points. And this gives me what is called a multi-manipold invariance. So this is a generalization of a Zeppelin invariance of, for manifold way, instead of one Higgs field, you have multiple Higgs fields. So this is another case, which I will focus in my lectures. And moreover, so all this can be interpreted as an interpretation in terms of DOA vector-period algebra, which appeared before. This was vector-period algebra, which was obtained as a vector space. It was obtained by putting this theory on just this one. So as I mentioned before, this gives you some great vector space, which moreover can be cubed, is believed to be cubed with the structure of the vector space. And now, also let me mention a bit. So here in all these examples, I consider the case when 2 comma 0 case, when everything was labelled by simply-lazy algebra. But let me briefly mention what can happen when t is 1 comma 0 of this more general list. So it's labelled by a choice of singularity and elliptically fiber collabial threefold. Then, so one thing one can consider as before, to choose sigma to be t2 to tors with complex structure tau. And then, well, depending on choice t, this can be interpreted as in the case of a Baphavite environment, this will be some series in cube with integral coefficients. And they can be interpreted as a case-theoretic non-Abelian monopole. So there is certain, what happens is there is certain, for certain cases, the generating functions for such non-Abelian monopole environments will also have some modular properties, which come from the fact that this, from the symmetry, from the mapping class group action on these two tors. Well, the choice of collabial threefold means what exactly, so it tells you what gauge group you consider and what is the representation. So what is the kind of meta-choice? What is the meta-choice, but only you cannot get all possible choices of the gauge group and meta. So only particular combinations, and for this particular combination, this is expected to have a model of properties. Well, what I'm saying, you can construct this series for kind of arbitrary choice of gauge group and a meta. But for this arbitrary choice, they're not going to have any model of properties. Only for those choices, which come from collabiaus, you will have a model of properties. So there's, I'm going to say the conjecture form. Well, again, for some particular, I didn't explain this, but if I have time in the lecture side, I will also mention this thing in more detail. But moreover, there is a conjecture. The first part, the second part of this can be refined to an element of the coefficient ring of our generalized homology series, which is called Tmf, which is invented by Hopkins of a point. So it's known that as a, so the free part, if you tensor this with Q, this coefficient ring, you get a ring of model of forms. But there are also some torsion part, which is not captured just by this Q series. No, the torsion point is not, it should be constructed in a bit different way. But there is some prediction that it should be refined to include torsion. Well, torsion, I mean torsion in this ring. So the free part of this ring is a model of forms. But OK, this is the end of this big physical physics picture. Over here? Are there questions? Well, it's not the end of the lecture. Yes. So for this, you actually just need to use the casement G equals C1. So you can capture homology information of your manifold and things like error characteristic signature by just considering this T, which is associated to U1. Yes, yes. Well, in general, it's not, so the point, well, you cannot, well, let me say the following. There are not enough supersymmetries to define the full 6D topological quantum field theory. But if you produce 6-manifold, it has some special galonomy, then you may do something. If your vibration will have some particular special galonomy, then I think you can do something with this. But the galonomy on the tangent bundle, the galonomy, like is the? Yes. I mean, yeah, to define the theory, you can equip it with metric, but then you show that it doesn't actually depend. Yes, yeah. Well, which case? Yeah, this case. This case, well, so far, for something like product of Riemann surfaces. And, but, well, you can also try to do this. Yeah, I mean, so far, but, well, I believe you can, like, if you use this kind of definition, you should be able, probably, to compute for complex surfaces while using technique by Dutch and Coolman. But, yeah, in our work, we did this. So the work with, for example, this work by myself, Dupe, who is here, Kumrenwafo and Sergei Gukov, we did this, for example, for this, for in 1,0 case, in 1,0 case for product of Riemann surface. But for 2,0 case, you can do more. So, OK, so let me, so we have 10 minutes. So let me start a kind of more systematic expedition. So since not, I think not everyone is familiar with the notion of vertex operator algebras, I should briefly review this. And this is what I will start doing. Because later, we will need to use this notion. So what is the definition? So let me, first, define the vertex algebra. So what actually, so some people may call it, what I will define here, some might people call it, vertex broad. And so this contains the following data. So this will be vector space, which is z to graded. So this is the part where you can call it super. So the most classical definition doesn't have z to graded. So there is a, so I will denote using kind of physics notation. I will denote z to grading as f, the value of z to graded as by f. And so there is special, so the following data. So the following quadruple vector space v, a choice of what is called unit element in v, in physics called vacuum. And so it has z to grading. It's even. And then there is a translation called translation operator. So this is an element, so this is an endomorphism from v, or endomorphism on v. And what's most important, so probably I should write it here. So let me write it 1, 2, 3, is what is usually referred as state operator or state field correspondence. And this is often denoted in mass literature by y. And this is a, so one way is to define it as a linear map from v to endomorphisms of v, endomorphisms of v. And so you take a series, a formula around series in z, with coefficients being endomorphisms of v. So other way, equivalently, of course, you can understand as a map from v times or v to v itself, sorry, to series, to Lorentz series in z, with coefficients being endomorphisms of v. And moreover, so this is a, so vector, vector operator, vertex algebra is a quadruple, is a following quadruple. And moreover, they should satisfy the following axioms. So if I take the state field correspondence of 1, so this is, will be just constant series, this coefficient being identity operator. And the t, the translation operator, should satisfy the following property. So if I take the value of this state field correspondence of some element u, u, so for any u in v, so this gives me some element for endomorphism v, so series in z, this coefficient value in endomorphism of v. So you can take a commentator of this operator acting on v with t. And this should be the same as a derivative with respect to z, this formal parameter, why the third axiom is, sometimes it's referred to as locality or Jacobi identity. Is that, so it might be not very visible here, so let me continue on this part. So this locality is that for any pair uv from my vector space, there exists positive number n such that the following is satisfied. So if I take a commentator of y of u, this formal variable z, and y of v is from variable x and multiply by sufficiently high power of x minus z to the power n, this should be 0. So this was the definition of vertex algebra. Now what is a vertex? Oh, sorry, I forgot to mention. So of course, this commutator is a graded commutator. Of course, this commutator is, by definition, is plus minus 1.  So as usual, you take in this super world, as usual, you take commutator or anticommutator depending on the parity of u and v. And of course, this map y is even with respect to z to grade. So now let me state a definition of vertex operator algebra and I'll stop. So is a vertex algebra with additional data. So the data is a certain element omega of v of my vector space which satisfies the following condition. So if I take the state of field correspondence of this element, so let me denote this series by t of z so that it has an expansion of the following form. So those guys, by definition, those are some operators acting on my vector space v. And this omega is such that, so if those ln's satisfy the asteriological c, where c, so here c is just a particular complex number times identity on v. And moreover, v is z graded by l0, meaning that v can be decomposed into with respect to this z-grading such that l0 on each component acts just by multiplication by some integer. And l minus 1 should coincide with this translation operator which you had before. And omega itself should be element of degree 2. So one very brief thing is that modules of vertex algebra v are vector spaces equipped with the following map. So there's a map from v to now in the endomorphisms of m. And we take a series of this. For this, we take a series in, again, formula n series in z with a coefficient toilet in endomorphisms of m. Of course, v itself is a model of v. OK, here I'll stop.


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