Attention Sloan's Lake residents. This is a community notification of a new sexually violent predator in your area. Please stay tuned to the following short program for more information. Hi I'm technician Ron Hackett with the Denver Police Department. The sex offender registration and compliance unit at DPD is responsible for the registration monitoring and tracking of all registered sex offenders and sexually violent predators who live in the city and County of Denver. Here's a brief history of sex offender legislation in Colorado. Our state laws trickle down from federal government mandates. In 1994 we had the Jacob Wetterling Act which mandated that states would establish a sex offender list. Megan's law of 1996 said that the public would have access to those sex offender registration lists. The Pam Litchner Act of 1996 stated that some offenders might have to have lifetime registrations. In the Adam Walsh Act of 2006 unified sex offender laws across the country. In Colorado the legislature has determined that sexually violent predators by definition pose a higher risk to the community at large and therefore mandated that upon their release from the Department of Corrections the community must be notified. Sex offender notification in Colorado happens in two ways. The first is passive and ongoing through the sex offender registration process which is a list maintained by local police departments. The second way is active via community notification for those offenders determined to be sexually violent predators by the courts or by the parole board. Most sex offenders in Colorado are supervised by the criminal justice system in our communities. Most sex offenders engage in crossover behavior which means they may have been arrested for one type of crime but be apt to commit another.  There is no typical sex offender but all tend to be deceptive, manipulative and secretive. 80 to 93 percent of sex offenses are committed by someone known to the victim. Sexual deviancy begins in mid to late adolescence. Sex offenses are not impulsive.  The community has a vested interest in helping offenders to be successfully managed in the community. Sex offenders have the same need for housing and employment as any other citizen.  There are approximately 16,500 registered sex offenders in the state of Colorado. About 65% of convicted sex offenders are placed in the community on probation. The remainder are in the Department of Corrections or Community Corrections. Offenders may be caught for one type of offense but be at a high risk to commit another type. Crime of conviction is only one indicator of risk.  The offender's residence must be verified quarterly by the Denver Police Department. The full sex offender registration list is available by calling the Denver Police Department Identification Bureau at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Convicted felons and those with multiple convictions are posted online at denvergov.org slash police.   Now, here's a look at the newest sexually violent predator living in Denver. Here's an overview of the registered sex offenders currently living in Denver. There are 2,483 total living within city limits. In Denver Police District 1, there are 287. Precinct 121 has 46 registered sex offenders. Of those, 26 have felony convictions and 20 have misdemeanor convictions. David Andrew Guerrero is a sexually violent predator currently living in Denver. He's 49 years old and was born on May 9th, 1970.  He's currently living at 2451 North Grove Street in the Sloan's Lake neighborhood of Denver. Schools located within one mile of this offender include Cheltenham Elementary at 1580 Julian Street, Strybe Prep Lake and Lake International School both at 1820 Lowell Boulevard, Academy of Urban Learning at 2417 West 29th Avenue, Valdez Elementary at 2525 West 29th Avenue, Brown International Academy at 2550 Lowell Boulevard, Career Education Center Early College at 2650 Elliott Street, Strybe Prep Excel and North High School and North High School Engagement Center all at 2960 North Spear Boulevard, the Boys School of Denver at 3120 Irving Street. Parks located within one mile of this offender include Sloan's Lake Park, Hallock Park, Confluence Park, Hirshhorn Park, Ashland Rec Center, Viking Park, Centennial Gardens, Jefferson Park, Highland Park, Highland Senior Center Park, Diamond Hill Promenade, Platte River at Eelich Gardens, Gates Crescent Park, Fishback Park. Recreation centers located within one mile of this offender include Ashland Rec Center at 2475 West Duncork Place, Highland Rec Center at 2880 Osceola Street. Bus routes located within one mile of this offender include Route 31 Federal Boulevard and West 29th Avenue, Route 28 West 26th Avenue and Irving Street, Route 32 West 32nd Avenue and Clay Street. A brief history of charges against this offender. Sexual assault on a child, position of trust, victim 15 to 18 defendants child. He's currently on parole and registered with the Denver Police Department on May 10, 2019 to 2451 North Grove Street in the Sloan's Lake neighborhood of Denver. Past charges against this offender include failure to appear, traffic. David Andrew Guerrero has been determined as sexually violent predator after meeting the following criteria. Criteria one age 18 or older on the date of the offense or under 18 and tried as an adult. The offender was age 32 at the time of the offense. Criteria two, the crime must have been committed honor after July 1, 1997 and convicted honor after July 1, 1999.  The offender was convicted on July 22, 2002 for sexual assault on a child position of trust, victim 15 to 18 defendants child. Criteria three, the relationship to the victim was one of the following. Victim was a stranger to the offender or the offender established or promoted a relationship with the victim primarily for the purpose of sexual victimization. The victim was a five-year-old female. The offender was the victim's father. Criteria four, positive results are the passing of a risk assessment instrument administered by probation parole staff and a qualified treatment evaluator. Positive results include an assessment for the presence of a mental abnormality, a level of denial regarding the offense, treatment appropriateness and motivation, presence of sexual deviant interests. The offender was evaluated by the Jefferson County courts with positive results determining him to be a sexually violent predator.


Sometimes these are small ideas, but extremely innovative. These ideas can be developed into radically new product or services. There are many ideas, people have many ideas for the products. उन में से, वोड़ फोड़े से ideas होते है, उसल शकल अखतार करते है, products की और services की. And there are many radically new ideas, in which radically new product is developed. If financial success of ideas can be developed into a business, अगर वो जो प्रोड़ाई भाब बनाते है, या कोई start-up करते है, और आप को लगता है के वो product लोगो में मकबूल होगी है, लोगो प्रोड़क या service करीदना है, शुरू होगे है, और उस से आप को financially benefit होगा, financially munafa होगा, तो वो start-up है, एक viable business opportunity में कनवोथ होगा जाता. People with radically new ideas based on new technology are defined as high-tech entrepreneurs. High-tech entrepreneurs are either engineers, or people with technology-based ideas, who are enthusiastic about technology, who are interested in technology and market new technology based products. अप एक अप एक से लेए सकते है, जो IT-related services, like whatsapp, twitter, facebook, यह सारे जो है, technology-based radically new product, which is based on high-tech entrepreneurship. High-tech entrepreneurs are people who decide to develop and market a new product or service. They feel the need and have the urge to pursue their luck and build their own business. They feel that they need this product in their market. They want to market it and sell it so that they can do business through it. Lack of experience or business knowledge does not scare these entrepreneurial minds away. They are so enthusiastic that despite their lack of experience, despite their lack of business knowledge and lack of knowledge, they believe in their product and service so much that they believe that they will succeed. Many entrepreneurs aim to improve existing products rather than develop something completely new. There is a new version of the existing product, keeping in view of the new technology, giving it a new shape. This is a safe element. If there is a new service like Taxi Service, you get a new shape called Radio Taxi from the airport in Khrachi. You book it and pack time slots in which you can pick the taxi. If you have an innovative shape, you can talk about Uber, through which the company is providing service, facilitating, neither the company's cars nor the company's driver. The customer is facilitating and through which they are earning, which is a completely innovative idea. Entrepreneurs seek financial support from venture capitalists to help finance their new business. The venture capitalists are willing to take risks and are willing to charge more interest. Entrepreneurs have a very innovative idea. The venture capitalists are willing to help finance their new business, but they usually have to invest heavily themselves and take major personal risk too, in order to make it all come true. There is a lot of enthusiasm and zeal behind it, and there is a lot of confidence that they will be able to invest in everything they own, because they believe that they will be able to market this product successfully and they will be able to give it a viable and progressive business.


Hey guys, Jeremy here, and I finally gave in. I finally watched the first episode of Reboot, The Guardian Code, and it's awful. It's not mind-meltingly bad as I was originally led to believe it would be, but it's still terrible.   This is a really robust, incredibly archaic view of what movie producers think hackers are.  He's awful. The decision to make him is awful.  It's all awful. He's the worst part of the show so far. Then comes the school kids.  They're not given that much time to really establish themselves. Admittedly the episode actually moves really quickly, and they're not awful. They actually look like high school kids, but that Power Rangers dynamic is definitely there. When they get into the world, this is the best part, but that's hard to say when the rest of it is garbage, and your best-looking stuff is shiny-looking garbage. Now, admittedly it does have more detail in the animations. The animations are much better than the original, but that's because you actually have a budget in the Unreal Engine.  And with it being the Unreal Engine, the animation with the camera is much better. I'll admit that.  However, the world is dead. The thing that the original reboot had was despite its resources, you still felt that this was a world. There was characters, there was colors, there was ambience, there was animation, there was a world around the characters. And this is literally just emptiness with tubes and squares, all with a different shade of gray and blue. And that's awful. That's not how you engross people. We were blown out of our minds with just how detailed the world of Mainframe was, and now we've got this weird-looking gray, empty square. And there's action for the sake of action for no reason. Like at one point, they're in the ship and the ship is spinning, but it's going in a straight line. It's not avoiding anything. It's just spinning for the sake of spinning. This is what a kid who's using Maya for the first time would think is like, oh, that's cool. I can make the ship spin. But that's not what you do for a professional product. And then the ending with the episode where apparently the hacker was trying to turn off all of the power in the UK, despite the fact that the show with its actors, its area, its whole idea is that it's in America. So I don't know why that's a goal of the hacker. And then the Vera character. Oh my God. When that character got introduced, it's like, this is going to get old extremely quickly. And it did. I couldn't take it after two lines. And so I'm like, yep, that's it. I'm done. At least to say it's not the absolute putrid garbage. But mind you, I've only seen the one episode. I hear it just gets worse from here. So that's why I'm going to cut out. I'm just going to say, yeah, it's as bad as pretty much as bad as everyone says it is. And the fact this show is a Canadian, it's based off of a Canadian show that was huge in Canada.    Anyways, that's no different for us. So I'll give it a two out of seven. But that's it. Now I'm not watching anything more of this. Maybe a five-year-old or a 10-year-old might enjoy this, but I can't stand this. It's a complete waste of time. Anyways, guys, that's all for me and hope you like this video. If you did hit like and if you're interested in more, maybe subscribe. Anyways, that's all for me. I'll see you guys next time.


before he started and he finally told them that as an encore he would sing Yankee Doodle Daddy while they drank a glass of water at the same time. I know that most of you here are no strangers to briefings here up on Capitol Hill. You've supported us in the past on so many crucial issues and so many crucial battles. That's why I know when you heard about the new economic bill, the Bill of Rights that we unveiled a week ago, you probably anticipated being invited here. In fact, some of you may even be thinking of that epitaph on a tombstone in the old cemetery. I expected this, but not quite so soon, but we've done much together during the last few years. In fact, seeing you also reminds me of another story. People are always saying I have a weakness for stories. I don't know how that got started. Anyway, this one's about an unforgettable American and a great musician, Louis Satchmo Armstrong. A tourist came up to him one day in New York and says, I can't wait to hear your performance tonight. I'm on the way to get tickets right now. By the way, how do I get to Carnegie Hall? Satchmo replied, just practice, baby, practice. Hard work, your hard work, the support of millions of Americans hasn't just brought us a long way in a few years. It's created a revolution. Sometimes the hardest thing in the world is to understand how the present will look to the historians of the future. But take it from me. Once you've had a little time to think about what's happened, we may even be astonished ourselves. So many old myths have been exposed and old ways of doing things changed. When we first proposed tax cuts, for example, there were those who were certain that our plan would cause even larger deficits because revenues would shrink. We all know what happened. An economy featuring growth and opportunity produced $44 billion more in revenues by 1985. And then there were those who said our plan was a giveaway to the rich. Well, guess what? According to figures recently pointed to by Senator Bill Roth of Delaware, since our tax cut plan was installed, the payments of lower and middle income earners have shrunk by 11.1 percent while the payments of high income taxpayers have increased by 12.6 percent. Of the $44 billion increase in tax revenue from 1981 to 1985, 81.6 percent was paid for by the tiny one and a half percent of all taxpayers whose income was over $100,000 a year. In fact, taxes paid by all those with incomes above $50,000 rose by $63.5 billion, and this allowed for a substantial $18.9 billion tax decrease for those with incomes below $50,000. And then finally, there were those who said that cutting taxes would cause more inflation. Why do I remember that one? Believe me, the now embarrassing quotes make a lengthy list. Anyway, after two years of back-to-back double-digit inflation, the first time that had happened since World War I, we saw inflation head downward and stay down. Today it's between three or four percent, and once again the critics were wrong. There were other stories too, not just predictions that unemployment was going to go higher, but that high levels of unemployment were here to stay. Some folks even said we had to get used to unemployment rates of seven or eight percent or even higher. We created over 13 million new jobs instead, and last month the total unemployment rate hit an even six percent. So you see, it's more than a question of just silencing our critics. America astonished the world. Chicago School Economics, Supply Side Economics, call it what you will. I noticed that it was even known as Reaganomics at one point until it started working. All of it is fast becoming orthodoxy. It's not just that Milton Friedman or Frederick Von Hayek or George Stigler have won Nobel Prizes. Other younger names unheard of a few years ago are now also celebrated. But a reading George Gilder, they know what the Laffer Curve is. And a few months ago the French government inducted Paul Craig Roberts into the Legion of Honor. And the acclaim given these economists and thinkers is evidence of a worldwide revolution, proof that they were right and the conventional wisdom was wrong. They were right for a very simple reason. They understood the power of the human spirit. They understood the capacity of the individual once released from the stultifying hand of government to reach and climb and build and dream and to achieve and succeed and make life better for all humankind. And from the outset, this idea of economic freedom has been our political load star. That's why in creating our political revolution for this economic freedom our goal was simple. As Jefferson said about the revolution of his own time, to place before mankind the common sense of the subject. All we said was this, give the American people a chance and they'll come through, they'll make the difference, they'll get us out of the worst economic mess since the Depression. And they have, building one of the mightiest prosperities in our history, a prosperity that I know every one of us in this room is determined to keep making stronger with every passing month and every passing year. But to achieve what we achieved economically, we first had to make political changes. Our guide here was still the same, trust the people, put the facts before them, then trust the people. And thanks to dedicated Americans like you, we got our message out. And the people spoke and they demanded change. But let's remember it didn't come easy. Our victories took months, sometimes years of preparation. And all the way along, we heard about how our calls for reform and change were just meaningless rhetoric that none of our goals had a chance of legislative passage. Now, I learned a long time ago to take this sort of skepticism with more than a grain of salt. In fact, I call it the Harry Warner factor.   Lately we've been hearing from Capitol Hill about a return to the old days. In fact, this week Congress poured over 100 different ways to increase taxes. Maybe they should use next week to look for 100 ways to cut spending. It's all a matter of setting the right priority. I'm here to tell you today, and I hope Congress takes notice, what ails us now is what has always ailed us. A federal government is too big and it spends too much money. So let me assure you, any budget-busting spending legislation or tax increases sent down here from Capitol Hill are heading right back up Pennsylvania Avenue, stamped with the most respectable four-letter word I know, V-E-T-O. But think of this too, hasn't the time come to get around this year-in-and-year-out battle on the budget and taxes? The burden always seems to fall on those fighting fiscal abuses. Don't we need to stop fighting for two yards in a cloud of dust and put the ball in the air instead? And isn't it time to institutionalize our economic reforms? We have to make sure the great American spirit is never again shackled by big government, that the future of other generations of Americans is never again mortgaged on the national debt. With our new economic bill of rights, we can do just that.  We can pass truth in spending legislation that will force the federal government to be candid with the American people to say how much new programs are going to cost and spell out the intent to finance them. And by packaging these changes into a bill of economic rights, we're only making our message easier to understand. And we're making that larger point I talked about earlier. There is no end to what the human spirit can achieve if it is left alone to strive and succeed. We know freedom works politically. Our first bill of rights was testament to that fact. And now we need to drive home the lesson of the last few years, the lesson of the new economics that economic freedom works too. This is a nice word Robert Kennedy used to say, but change is its motivator, and change has enemies. But there's a way to overcome those enemies, and once again that's by getting the American people to come through. And that's why I want to ask for your help today. I'm confident that slowly but surely we can win this fight. For one thing, an election year is coming up, and I've always noticed, perhaps you've noticed too, that it's a time when folks up in the Congress seem more inclined to show the voters how much they support fiscal responsibility and lower taxes. So let's get together, you and I, and provide them with that opportunity. Let's work to get the provisions embodied in our economic bill of rights on the floor of the House and Senate. Let's give our public servants a chance to show their stuff, to vote for less spending, lower taxes, and revolutionary new safeguards against government encroachment of our economic freedom. I want to thank all of you for coming by today. And I know that you're all thinking now, will he loan me the helicopter so I can get out to Rehoboth? Well, believe me, I understand that thought. I'd like to go to the beach myself. But you know, tonight's a full moon. And with all that budget-busting legislation under consideration, I just think I better stay in town. I want to just say one thing to you, again, about those figures to make a point definite with you. Those figures about the people in the upper brackets paying more, a greater share of the tax burden than they were before the tax cuts, now, what we did was completely different than those who have said, well, you know, tax those people up there, the fat cats, that's the, we're hearing more of that today. Why are they paying a higher percentage at lower tax rates? Because when you make it worthwhile, the tax shelters don't look as attractive. And there's a reason to have a little ambition and make another, make a dollar if you can keep more of it. Remember back when it was a 90 percent bracket? I was in Hollywood at the time. You'd be surprised how many actors started turning down parts after they got in that bracket. Who wants to work for ten cents on the dollar? So that's exactly what has happened in this instance. We have put incentive where it should be. And so everybody is paying their fair share of taxes. And we're going to keep it that way. So thanks to all of you and the help that you're going to give us. God bless you. Thank you all.


Well, welcome everyone, and I have a few preliminary remarks before I get into the gist of my topic, which is pretty lengthy. The oil price, stock market connection, the next hundred-year financial crisis, and the next crash. That's the bad news. I've got some good news at the end also. First, I'd like to thank Florence Sabron and her wonderful husband of 55 years for sponsoring this event. Three and a half years ago, I retired from Ramapo College, and since then I've been very apprehensive of speaking in public because I do not have my teleprompter. During the 2020 campaign, Joe Biden borrowed it and hasn't returned it. But I did speak to him recently. He said he would return the teleprompter if I admit the cocaine in the White House is mine. So I said the only thing I'll admit to is I drink Manichevitz wine during Passover. So that's as far as my inviting goes. Two and a half years ago, we moved from Fort Lee, New Jersey to Fort Myers, Florida, where we're here today. And I thought the next logical move would be to Fort Knox because I really want to see if the gold is really there. And so instead, we moved to Naples, which is not a bad place to live. Anyway, let me get started because there's a lot to cover. Jonathan has laid the foundation for some of the things I want to cover. This is a wonderful quote I use. What do we think we know? It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so. Anybody know who said that? Because you do, you'll get a free lunch today. No, no. He gets an extra portion for today's lunch. This is what the problem is in D.C. and on the talking heads on TV. They think they know what's going on in the economy, but they really don't. And I'll go through that right now. I wish I could say I created this, but this is from Murray Rothbard's book, The Case for 100% Gold Dollar, which I had my students read when I taught financial history and other courses. And this was published, I guess, the essay was originally published in 1962. So it's been around for 61 years. And on page 23, he does something similar to this. I just embellished it. Most economists will tell you that the economy is all about consumption. You hear this line, 70% of the US economy is consumption. Well, from an accounting perspective, that's true. But how do we get to consumption? First, you have to produce stuff, goods and services that we, the consumer, desire. And why do people produce stuff? Because they can sell it for money. They purchase money with the stuff that they produce. So in my classes, I would tell students, I couldn't be a consumer when I was teaching unless I first provided what? Teaching services. So for me to be a consumer, I had to be a college professor. Easy enough to understand. Even Joe and Kamala can understand that, I think. So this is what I call the natural economy, or as Rothbard called it, the unhampered economy. This is what we would have if we didn't have a Federal Reserve. We didn't have a $7 trillion federal budget and all the regulatory agencies that make life miserable for the producers and the consumers. So this is the economy that is what? Growing every year. Because there's nothing here that suggests that there'll be what? A downturn in the economy. Now we know that companies sometimes misread the market. That's why they suffer losses, as Macy's wrote about. We are a profit and loss economy. Profits are good, because it's the way consumers tell producers, you're doing a great job, keep on doing it. Losses tell producers you're doing a lousy job. Either get better or go out of business. So this is the economy we need to get to soon. Otherwise, as Jonathan pointed out, things will happen, which will not be very pleasant. So what's missing from the original flow chart? Well, what we need are entrepreneurs and labor, money, banking, financial markets and insurance, free trade, property rights and the rule of law, police courts and national defense and non-profit social services. I originally was gonna speak today about the forgotten Austrian. He was sort of a contemporary of Macy's, even though he was born about 30 years later, Peter Drucker, and I was gonna refer you to one of the most important articles I ever read in the Wall Street Journal or in any other publication. And I'll tell you exactly when it was published, December 19th, 1991, where he demolishes the case for the welfare state, lock, stock and barrel. It's entitled, it profits us to strengthen non-profits. This is the alternative to all the entitlement programs that the federal government has, every single one of them. And it's a short, succinct piece, and I urge you to read it because you could use it in your debates with your fellow neighbors, colleagues. Republican club members, democratic club members, anyone who thinks that the welfare state is the way to go, he just demolishes it. From a management perspective, not from a philosophical perspective, from a very practical management perspective. So these are the things that we have in a free market. Now I put down police and courts. Now some people think only the government can provide police and courts, but we know there are gated communities all across the country that have their private security. Downtown's higher private security to take care of peace and tranquility in their neighborhoods. And the courts, I had a colleague of mine around Paul College, an attorney. He was an arbitrator, a mediator. You could have private mediation and arbitration, so you don't need a government court system. And of course, national defense, the answer is everyone is armed, okay? Everyone is armed. Who's gonna invade a country with 340 million people or 150, 180 million people who are armed, okay? So that is the structure of a free market economy. There's no business cycle here. I dare you to articulate why there would be a business cycle in this type of an economy. It's just not there. So to understand the structure of production, which is what Rothbard put, Leonard Reid, the founder of the Foundation for Economic Education, wrote probably one of the most important little monographs called iPencil. It's the autobiography of a pencil. It's just a brilliant presentation of how an economy works from a free market perspective, from production to fabrication to consumption, a pencil. Think of a pencil, probably what? The least high-tech item we use. Do you know how much money has to be invested to get one pencil through the marketplace? Billions and billions of dollars. Yet it's done seamlessly by the free market, by entrepreneurs, men and women across the country. So again, the wonderful thing about the Mies Institute, you can read this for free online. Just go to the URL and you can read it free online. So you'll save yourself a few bucks. Okay, now, here's the good news. This is real GDP. In other words, the output of goods and services from the end of World War II to the present. And what does it show? We went from $2 trillion of real GDP to about $22 trillion. That's the really good news. The gray bars, if you can see them, are the periods of recession. And what's interesting about this is that we've had a recession at every year ending in zero, starting from 1920. 1920, 1930, 1940, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 2000, 2001. 2010, we didn't have it, it came earlier. 2007, 2008, the housing bubble. And 2020, we really didn't have a business cycle or recession. We have a COVID implosion where the economy was locked down, but it's considered a very short recession. So, and then of course you have these little downturns. That's where the economy contracted because of the recession, which is caused, as I point out in my book, both books on monetary policy and the economy by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, pumping money in and pumping money out of the economy. So this is the real good news. And of course this is COVID. This is the COVID implosion, which is greater than anything we've seen in the post-war period. This is the housing bubble bursting, the contraction in the housing market, and the affiliated industries with that. And then the other recessions were relatively mild, except of course, if you lose your job. Everyone knows the difference between a recession and a depression. A recession is when your neighbor's out of work and the depression is when you're out of work. Okay, so that's the difference. Now, this is the idealized version of the economic cycle. This doesn't explain it, it just shows you. We have peaks and troughs and peaks and troughs and peaks and troughs. The good news is the economy keeps on growing. And it's growing because of, quote, the natural economy. The way I like to explain it to students is that we have a layered economy. We have the natural economy that we all participate in through production and consumption. We have the juiced up economy from the Federal Reserve's easy money policies driving interest rates down to zero. And then we have the spending part of the economy. Government-induced economy of the government spending money on all sorts of boondoggles, like green new energy and all the other things that they've come up with. Somebody is sitting in a room, I don't know in the basement of the Congress or the White House thinking up of crazy programs that we have to pay for or don't pay for, they just borrow money for it. So this is the idealized version of the cycle, okay? So why do we have the cycle, okay? This is the economy, you can see, this is not the ups and downs of the economy. The COVID implosion, the housing bubble burst and the mild recessions we've had in the post-war period, okay? So the question is, as Jonathan pointed out, the Federal Reserve was created in 1930 to quote stabilize the economy. This is anything but stable, okay? The economy expands, contracts, expands and contracts and the good news is it keeps on expanding. So the question is why? Why do we have these ups and downs of the economy? And all we have to do is go to human action, MISI's 900 page treatise, you can read online at MISI's. It's not something you can read in a day or a week or a month, it's a pretty heavy book. The other book you could read is Murray Rothbard's Man's Economy and State, which is just a magnificent exposition of the economy. And what did MISI's write? The cyclical fluctuations of business are not in the currents originating in the sphere of the unhampered market, but a product of government interference with business conditions designed to lower the rate of interest below the height at which the free market would have fixed it. In other words, the Federal Reserve are price fixers. They're interferers in the natural economy. You never hear that spoken on CNBC and some of the other places. In other words, the Federal Reserve, as Jonathan pointed out, does incredible damage to the economy and we're seeing it unfold right now, which I'll get to in a little bit. More recently, William Fleckenstein, who's based out in I think Washington State, who wrote a wonderful book called Green Span's Bubbles, The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve, and he takes Greenspan to task for his tenure at the Federal Reserve from 1987, just before the market crashed on October 87, he came into office until he left in 2006. And I first became introduced to Greenspan in 1969 when I read his essay in Ein Rans book called Capitalism, the Unknown Ideal, his little essay called Golden Economic Freedom. This was a year after I graduated from college and I was a history major, I took a couple courses in economics, but that really opened my eyes about the Federal Reserve and how it caused the Great Depression. It's a very short essay, you could read it online. And what does Fleckenstein say? Central bankers are actually central planners. They pick an interest rate to within two decimal places. They guess is the right one and then they proceed to cram it down the throat of the banking system. In other words, the Federal Reserve has no idea what they're doing. They think they know what they're doing, but as we, and I'll show you, they are really clueless. And that's the book that I wrote, why the Federal Reserve sucks. I went through the testimony of both Greenspan and Bernanke to Congress, twice a year after testifying Congress. And I went through their testimony and looked at what the economy was doing and they totally missed what was happening in the economy because of their policies. The way I describe the Federal Reserve, it's the arsonist that then tries to sell you fire insurance. They create the problem by printing money. Remember, the Federal Reserve has something we all wish we had since the holiday season's coming up. When I learned about this, my head exploded. They have an unlimited checking account. Think about that. Imagine having an unlimited checking account. You would be the most popular person in what? Lee County or Collier County or Florida. Because you literally could buy anything. In fact, in 1980, when I was a staff economist at the American Institute for Economic Research, I did an article on the Monetary Control Act of 1980, long time ago. And in it, it said that the Federal Reserve now has the authority to buy any asset. Think about that. They were only buying government securities. The 1980 Monetary Control Act gave them the legal authority to buy any asset. You know what that means? They can come into your neighborhood and buy up all the houses in the neighborhood. They could buy any condominium in the country, any real estate project in the country. Where do they get the money to do that? Well, we have to earn the money, right? Unless you're Sam Bankman-Fried, and you just take the money from his investors, right? And he just got his comeuppance, 110 years in prison. He could have gotten life, right? So I urge you to read this book because this is a wonderful little booklet that you could probably read in an afternoon. It's just a wonderful booklet, Greenspan's Bubbles. Now, this is the legacy of the Federal Reserve. This is the rate, the federal funds rate, that the Federal Reserve impacts by buying and selling government securities to pick the interest rate that they think the market needs in order to generate low employment and high growth. Well, this doesn't look like stability to me, does it? This looks like somebody's EKG gone astray, right? And I refer you to those of us that were around. This is Paul Volcker's attempt to break the back of double-digit inflation in the late 70s, early 80s, when the rate went to what, over 20%. It crushed the automobile industry. It crushed the housing industry. But the good news was that inflation was at 12% here. And it went down to 3% two years later. So it did its job of getting the inflation rate down and setting the stage for the 1980s boom. By the way, the 1980s boom has more to do with the prior president than Reagan. Are you familiar with that? The regulation began under Jimmy Carter, and he doesn't get enough credit for that because he called upon economist Alfred Kahn from Cornell University who went through the federal bureaucracy and said, all these regulatory agencies that we have have to be done away with because it's stifling all the major industries in the country. And that's when deregulation began. So Jimmy Carter does not get enough credit. And he should because he set the stage for the boom of the 1980s. So you can see I'm not making a very partisan presentation here. Now, here is the problem. The housing bubble burst, interest rates came down, and the Fed kept interest rates at close to zero. Think of a beach ball as interest rates, right? Everyone has used a beach ball in a swimming pool or the beach. It's floating on the water very nicely without anyone disturbing it. That would be stable interest rates. What if you push the beach ball down? That's what the Fed did right here and over here. It kept the interest rate down. The beach ball down. And when it lets it go, what happens? Rates start going up. That's the analogy between interest rates and the beach ball. The beach ball naturally belongs on the top of the water, not below the water. It can only stay there if you keep on putting pressure on the water, on the ball. So this is the long-term look at the interest rate that the Federal Reserve impacts by buying and selling government securities. Now, here is the really interesting chart that explains why the Fed is totally clueless. Even though they speak in very nice tones, we just heard Chairman Powell Wednesday give his presentation. And the red line is the interest rate, federal funds rate. The blue line is the CPI. And in past decades, the interest rate was above the CPI. So we would get a real rate of return on our short-term savings, money market accounts or savings accounts. And especially here, interest rates, I remember March of 1981. Some of you were not around March of 1981. Money market funds were very popular. 16% annual rate on our money market fund in March of 1981, well above the rate of inflation of around 12%. Now, look what that's happened in the last 10, 15 years because of the ideology of the Fed. Prices, the consumer price index is above the interest rate. That means we have negative real interest rates. In fact, there was a wonderful article on the MISI's website a couple of years ago to show you the pernicious consequence of this action. The article was entitled. $4 trillion has been transferred from savers to Wall Street. In other words, because of zero interest rates, people on Wall Street were able to borrow money at close to zero interest rates. That's speculate in the stock market, the bond market.  And if inflation is running 3%, we're losing 3% of perusing power on our money. That is what? Grant theft. That is grant theft. And no one has been indicted for that. So what I proposed in an article I wrote is that interest on our savings should be tax exempt to give us some relief from the Federal Reserve's disastrous policies. Now, look what's happened recently. This is the spike in inflation in 2022 when the CPI went to 9% from June of 21 to June of 22, the highest inflation we had in 40 years. Look where the Fed funds rate was. It was still at zero when inflation was accelerating. And what was the excuse? Inflation is transitory. Well, it depends your time horizon. If it's 50 years, yes, it's transitory. If it's five, if it's three years, it's not transitory. So good news is inflation has come down from 9% annual rate to around 4%. And now, for the first time, the interest rate is above the inflation rate. The Fed was so clueless back then it was shocking because if inflation's accelerating, they kept the interest rate at close to zero. So what was the signal to the markets? Borrow, speculate, because you're getting virtually free money to invest in financial assets or other assets. And you've seen the price at Christie's and other auction houses, they've gone through the roof. And I don't have to tell you about Southwest Florida real estate prices. They've basically doubled, I think, in the last three, four years and rents have gone through the roof as well. This chart, I could teach the whole financial history of the post-World War II period just by using this chart. It's very simple. Next one. And this is zooming in to the last 20 years. You can see rates were low, well, they're close to zero, well above the inflation rate. And the same thing happened here. So again, the amazing thing is, and again, I watched the financial news to get a sense of what people are saying. And you have people like Warren Buffett, very smart person who applauded Jerome Powell for his handling of the Federal Reserve and other people have applauded Jerome Powell. This tells me he's a total disaster as are his colleagues in the Federal Reserve, keeping interest rates below the rate of inflation. That's stealing from the public. So this is the economic, philosophical, ideological, political issue that we're facing domestically, one of them, the major one. And of course, it's all outlined in my book, okay? It was a lot of fun writing this book because you get to read the testimony of Greenspan and Bernanke and you really scratch your head, especially Greenspan. Greenspan gave a very hard money, pro-free market analysis and golden economic freedom, criticizing the Fed for keeping interest rates slow in the 1920s. So when it becomes the Fed chairman in 1987, what did he do? Keep interest rates low. In other words, he did exactly what he criticized the Fed for doing in the 1920s. It's really remarkable. Okay, now, here's what I want to get to. There was a question about the financial markets. I want to try to integrate the financial markets with economic analysis. Okay, none of this should be construed as any investment advice. I'm not here as an investment advisor. Go check with your investment advisor. But there's some interesting relationships that I've uncovered in doing the research for my financial history class that I thought I would bring into this presentation so you can get a sense of what is really going on and the relationships we have in the markets. Okay, let's start with one. Okay, prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. So anything I say about the future you could take with a grain of salt, okay? That's a, and that's Niels Bohr who's a Nobel Laureate in physics. Probably one of the smartest people ever on the planet. So let's continue. I saw this chart the other day and I said, I've got to present this chart because as we know, history repeats itself. Not exactly, but in this case, it is really close. The blue line is the inflation cycle from the mid-60s, Vietnam War, the Great Society, the Money Printing to fund all these programs. We had an acceleration, then a deceleration, an acceleration, deceleration till we got to the peak in 79, 80, 81 with Carter and Reagan at 12% inflation. Okay, and then of course inflation came down as Volcker spike interest rates to squeeze the inflation out of the economy. Interestingly enough, the yellow line is the current cycle starting in 2014. And guess what? It's tracking virtually perfectly the cycle that we saw in the 60s, 70s, and early 80s. Does that mean here we are right now where inflation has come down from its peak? What this suggests is that inflation, the rate of inflation will bottom out next year, then start accelerating and reach a peak in 2028 and then come down after that. That's what this is suggesting. This is not a predictive model, it's just showing you a correlation that is incredibly close fitting and have some other charts that show even more close fitting relationships. So what this is telling us is that the inflation cycle may be on a downward move now, but according to this analogy, it may be going up next year. Now this is an idealized version from stockcharts.com which has a lot of free content and subscriber content. This is one of the free articles and it shows the relationship, again a very idealized version of the stock market. Okay, that would be the red curve and the economy which is the green curve and you have the different sectors which ones do better during a boom, which ones do better during a bust, the so-called defensive sectors, healthcare, staples, consumer staples and utilities, okay. And which sectors do well during a boom, that'd be the industrials, technology, basic materials, energy and cyclical stocks. Again, this is an idealized version. You can go to stockcharts.com and Google it, you can find the article related to this, but there's great content here, podcasts of some very smart people about the stock market. So having said that, I put a lot of detail in my book on navigating the boom-bust cycle which is addressed for entrepreneurs, how they can see where we are in the economy and what actions, if any, they should take. And I'll get to that in a bit because there's some really interesting things going on in the labor market that we should be attentive to. Okay, now, this is a chart that Tom Bowley who is one of the bloggers at stockcharts.com in an article he wrote several years ago. Now you're talking about long-term, this is a 100-year stock market data. Going back to the bull market of the 20s, the crash of the, from 29 to 32. And then the market basically goes sideways for many years, then breaks out after World War II. Then we have the great bull market, the boom of the 1950s and early 60s. Then we get the stagnation of the 60s and 70s and the market basically goes sideways. This is the 73-74 crash where the market went down on nearly 50% in two years. This was related to the oil crisis of October of 73 with the Yom Kippur War. And then the market breaks out and then we have the big bull market of the early 80s to the dot-com peak. And the market had this tremendous run-up. And look what do you see here? The 87 crash is just a blip in a long-term cycle.  That's the moral of the story. Then we get the dot-com bubble bursting. We get the downward move here and then we get the housing bubble bursting and then we're off to the races again. So here we are today. So according to this analysis that Bolius put together, the stock market should peak roughly 18 years from what he considers the breakout in 2013 to roughly 2031. This is his, if history repeats itself, this bull market should last another, what, seven, eight years, nine years. Now, these are secular markets. In other words, long-term trends. Within these trends, there are bull phases and bear phases. So you have cyclical bull markets and bear markets but the long-term trends last about 18 years, roughly. Okay. So keep that date in mind, the early 2030s. Again, you can Google this and when I saw this and I showed it to my class, I said, again, we could, I could do the whole history, financial history of the country, going back to the 1920s to the present using the stock market as the backdrop to where the economy is given its relationship to the stock market. So the next one is predicting a recession. I expect the Fed to raise the Fed funds rate sometime in 2022, which happened. This was from, this was written in December, 2021 and to continue tightening in 2023. Thus, the next recession could begin in the fall of 23 but no later than, but no later than a year later. If the recession does not begin on schedule, it only means it has been postponed and not eliminated. That's what I wrote in Fortune magazine nearly two years ago and so forth were on track and I'll explain. We may be in a recession right now. We won't know till after the fact but I think there's some key evidence that the economy is really starting to slow down. Okay, now how do we know a recession's coming? The yield curve is one of the best predictors of a recession because the yield curve means short term rates or above long term rates because the Fed is contracting the supply of credit in the economy and therefore companies scrambled to borrow money and therefore we get a recession. So every time the yield curve inverted before the 1990 recession, the SNL crisis, the yield curve inverted. This is the dot com bubble bursting. This is the housing bubble bursting and this is the interesting things. Most people don't know this. The yield curve inverted in 2019 and if you recall, there was an interesting president at the time, Donald J. Trump. And when interest rates started going up, Trump castigized the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates which a president that I know has never done in public before. Lyndon Johnson did it privately in 1966 when he called William McChesney Martin, who was chairman of the Federal Reserve, down to his Texas ranch. Johnson was six-four. I think William McChesney was like five-six. He stood over him and he said, Bill, what are you doing with interest rates? And we had a mini recession in 1966. Rates went down and then that led to the acceleration of inflation in the late 1960s. So presidents do get involved. Nixon in 1971 imposed wage price controls. His buddy Arthur Burns was chairman of the Fed. He juiced the money supply and we had a boom in 1972. So the economy was roaring and Nixon won in a landslide in 1972, but then we had the oil crisis in 1973. The recession was gonna happen anyway. So what happened? Trump criticized the Fed for raising interest rates because Trump being a real estate man loves low interest rates. Real estate people love low interest rates. So what did the Fed do? It immediately started lowering interest rates instead of raising them because the yield curve suggested that there was inflationary pressures in the economy. So what happened? The yield curve steepened, which means that short-term rates went down, long-term rates stayed the same. And then of course we get the implosion in the economy because of COVID. And then the Fed gets very nervous in 2021 and starts raising interest rates and now we get an inverted yield curve. So this is suggesting that we're right on target for a recession somewhere down the road. If it's starting now or in 2024 and I'll show you a chart that suggests that 2024 could be a recession every year. Okay, now here's another one. This is my, I was not drinking when I drew this. This is the unemployment rate. What the unemployment suggests when the unemployment rate gets to these levels, that's when the recession begins. So guess where we are? Historically at the same level when recessions begin because when you have speculation, what do employers do? They hire as many people as they can in order to be more competitive to get the goods and services out that they think the public wants. So this is suggesting, and yesterday the unemployment numbers were reported and it crept up one tenth of one percent. What doesn't sound like a lot, but the unemployment rate reaches a trough and stays there for several months and then starts creeping up. So again, this is suggesting that next year could be a recessionary year, which is not very good for the incumbent party in the White House. Okay. All right, this is one that is fascinating. Talk about correlation and fit between one asset class, the price of oil and the stock market. This was written by Tom McClellan, whose website is mceoscillator.com. This was a public article he wrote in 2019. You can go to his website, you can find it. He also has articles at stocktrots.com. He's one of the bloggers there. And one day he wrote in his essay that he was looking at a long-term chart of the stock market and a long-term chart of the oil market. And he said, boy, they look awfully similar, but they don't fit in terms of time. So he did some manipulating and what he came up with, the price of oil leads the stock market by 10 years.  So we've got to pay attention to a relationship that has pretty strong consequences. And you can see in 1920, right after World War I, the price of oil peaked, then what, nearly 10 years later, 1929, the stock market peaked. Okay. And you just go back and see this happening over and over again so what is this implying? The price of oil peaked in 2014, 10 years forward, roughly, is 2024. So he's suggesting that 2024 could be a down year, both in the economy and the stock market. Again, this is one of the mysteries of finance is why do these things occur in such a time lag? And if anyone wants to investigate, this is a PhD topic, go right ahead because there's something going on in the economy where the price of oil leaves the stock market. And of course, what did we have the past two years? The price of oil went up. So, and then again, look at 2030. The price of oil came down in 2030. I'm sorry, 2020. That means the stock market should be down in 2030. Again, roughly. All right. Now, I taught Financial History of the United States where we went from the colonial period to the present. It was a survey course of, usually finance majors took the course and a lot of the material that the Mises Institute and their economists have put out over the last hundred years was part of the reading material plus other conventional reading material from the course. And then one day I was going through all the dates that we covered, a financial crisis in American history. The first one occurred in 1792 so what did I uncover? Similar to what Tom McClelland covered with the price of oil and the stock market. Hundred year cycles, 1792, the Panic of 1893, the SNL crisis of 1990. Then we have the Panic of 1818, which is Mer Rothbard's doctoral dissertation. Again, available free at the Mises website, the Panic of 1819, which is by the way considered the most definitive explanation of the Panic of 1819. Magnificent book, it goes through primary sources, newspaper articles, editorials and it shows the development of the Panic of 1819. Hundred years later, the so-called forgotten depression of 1920, that was the title of a book by James Grant and Tom Woods that a wonderful presentation which I showed my students. And then a hundred years later, we get the COVID implosion of 2020. The Panic of 1873, that was the railroad panic. A year later, a hundred years later, we got the oil crisis of 1973. The Panic of 1907, which was the impetus for creating the Federal Reserve. The secret meeting in Jekyll Island in 1910 where the Wall Street bankers got together with a couple of people from Congress and laid out the blueprint for the Federal Reserve and sold it to the American people as an anti-bank bill when in fact it was what? To create a cartel for the banks, which is the backstop of the Federal Reserve, the lender of last resort, that was one of the missions, it still is, to bail out the banks. Remember, banks have a flawed business model, right? We all know the famous scene at the end of It's a Wonderful Life where there's a bank run on the Bailey savings loan and George Bailey portrayed by Jimmy Stewart says, your money's not here, it's in Joe's house because he got a mortgage from our bank. The banks borrow short and lend long, that's the gist of it. So these banking panics throughout the 19th century and early 20th century, maybe because people got nervous about the money in the bank. So 1907, 100 years later, the housing bubble, 2007, 2008. So you know what's coming next, don't you? 2029 could be the confluence of the oil price, stock market, Tom Bowley's secular cycle for the stock market, the 100 year cycle that we've seen in American history. So we're entering what possibly could be one of the most volatile periods in economic and financial history of the United States. Plus we have something now we haven't had except for wartime, we have, as Jonathan pointed out, this huge debt that's occurring with interest expense really increasing exponentially. I mean, it's gone from two, 300 billion dollars a year, annual interest expense to nearly a trillion dollars a year. So the question is, who's going to buy the debt of the federal government down the road? We know the Chinese and the Russians and maybe even the OPEC nations are not too thrilled about the United States foreign policy these days. Will they come bail out the US government by buying our debt with all these $2 trillion deficits as far as the eye can see? But we have a $2 trillion deficit and supposedly a great economy according to Joe Biden. Magic, $2 trillion deficit, okay? So, I'm just on schedule here, which is fantastic. So the 2029 depression, give or take a year or two could occur because of all the confluence of monetary policy, fiscal policy, geopolitics. And if the savers don't buy the government debt down the road, then we could see a situation like we've seen in other countries that have gone into hyperinflation. Again, I'm not predicting this, where the Federal Reserve buys most of the government debt by printing money. And that will add liquidity, demand in the economy and drive prices through the roof and wages will lagging. That's what we're facing because of the 100 year plus of the Federal Reserve policy and as Rothbard called it, the welfare warfare state for the past 100 years as well. So let me finish on an upbeat note. I said I'd give you an upbeat note. The case for optimism, this is from Berkshire Hathaway's annual report, I think of 2013, his letter to shareholders. Who has ever benefited during the past 237 years by betting against America? If you compare our country's present conditions with that existing in 1776, you have to rub your eyes in wonder and the dynamism that embedded in our market economy will continue to work its magic. America's best days lies ahead. And even Buffett's worried about the debt because he's a student of financial history. He knows this can't last forever. And he's read Rothbard's material because his father Howard Buffett, a congressman and Rothbard were good friends in the 1940s and 50s and 60s and Howard Buffett asked Rothbard to send him material so he could give to Warren. So the good news is entrepreneurs will not be deterred. The question is, will the people in Washington get the message that what they're doing is not working? And so with the Mises Institute out there providing sessions like this with young scholars coming up and doing more research, I am, as they say, optimistic and realist about what's happening. So thank you for being here. Enjoy the rest of the day and I'll see you later.


If you guys are new to my channel and we're doing a week in my life this week I didn't do it last week. I don't know why just like wasn't really in the best mood for vlogging I just edited a whole video and I got to almost 10k steps met 9,700 or something But Ryan always likes this one coffee place near us So I think we're gonna go walk there and then I'm definitely gonna hit those 10k steps I got this hat yesterday. We had a wholesome Sunday and I actually vlogged that so definitely go watch that if you guys are Interested we just did a bunch of random things in Austin and today a lot of my friends have off So we are planning on going paddle boarding later today, but first we are going to get some caffeine I haven't decided if I really want anything just kind of want to get outside because it is actually the most perfect day here in Austin It is gonna be like 80 degrees and sunny and beautiful. I definitely want to spend as much time as I can outside Then being on the water in Austin, there's so many lakes and just like bodies of water that you can swim in But I need to prepare myself. I actually just put sunscreen all over myself I'm not really sure if these shorts are very flattering, but they were the only clean shorts I had so we're just gonna roll with it This swimsuit though is from Monday swimwear, and I'm obsessed with their swimwear like I love how it's red I'm not sure if you guys can tell but it just like sucks you in so good They are definitely pricey, but I fell in love with like the first couple so I bought even more first we need to put some hair serum in our hair Because it's hair washing day. I don't think I can go one more day With my hair being like this all over Slush in a little bit So we have a blow-up paddle board Ryan bought it like I Want to say like the month that he moved back to Georgia, and he just left it for me But honestly, I don't know how to blow it up myself. So I didn't really use it So he's gonna teach me today He has a call it to but I think we're just gonna go early and he's just gonna teach me how to blow it up It just looks like a lot of effort to be honest I mean, I don't think it looks that hard I just don't want to mess anything up and like have it leak air while I'm on the paddle board on the lake So it's very nice of him to come and do that next up of course face sunscreen Super-goop. I'm noticing I'm getting a lot of like random sunspots on my face like right here I wouldn't call them freckles. I definitely say they're like sunspots And I don't know if that's a good thing to be honest So that probably just means I'm not putting on enough sunscreen every day And sometimes I definitely forget I need to make it more of a thing Especially now that it's getting hotter outside But this glow screen is so beautiful because it gives me a little glow and a little bit of color So that's nice. I don't really feel like the need to wear makeup. Also, I'm gonna be wearing a hat and sunglasses So we should be good to go I'm charging up my little JBL clip for speakers So we can listen to some music on the lake and I don't want to get my new hat dirty just yet So I'm going with this one that I got in California This is a bit. My legs were shaking It wasn't as bad on the water out there But then as we were getting closer to the city It was getting windier and windier and then we were actually going against the wind on our way like towards the city So we thought we're gonna, you know, just leisurely like float back to the dock that we docked off at No, that was not the case because the wind switched up on us We were rowing away from the wind again, and they were just so windy I am definitely gonna be swimming while which it was a great workout, but like holy shit We did not think we were gonna go like that far towards the city We definitely thought it was just gonna be more chill day on the water, but that's okay I feel so like dirty and grimy and leaky.  I broke a nail. So I'll love that for me I'll just glue it back on because it's like a gel axe thing. So they're just like popped off So I guess it's not that it's broken But I also need to chug like five gallons of water I'm also thinking about taking a liquid every because that's how I dehydrated. I feel right now. Good morning. It is Wednesday I'm here with Sophie because she is going to the vet. She has to get all of her like shots I was trying to make her a grooming appointment actually and they told me that all the shots were expired So I'm gonna go get it done at emancipate. I think we brought her here for her last shots Ryan did it last time So I am going to do it this time I don't know if there's gonna be like a long wait or what but I tried to get here right when they opened at 10 So it's 9 57 and I'm gonna head in to possibly get on like the wait list or whatever they got going on We're back home I think it took like a little under two hours just to like wait and stuff But we were really lucky because we were apparently the last people to get vaccines for the day They kind of cut it off like right after us and I literally got there right at 10 a.m When they opened and there were like already five people waiting in front of me So very very happy that I got it done and now I can finally make her grooming appointment And I also took some stuff to Goodwill My car is actually like filled to the brim with just like random stuff because I was trying to declutter before Ryan like She didn't even like scream or anything. I didn't hear anything But when she opened the door she like bolted out to me It is lunchtime and we are making Indian food from Trader Joe's frozen boxes So we're doing butter chicken and then we're gonna do This one which is definitely one of my favorites. I'm also using the Trader Joe's frozen naan. I'm just gonna heat it up in a pan Here's the lunch set up. These are so small, but I had to split it with Ryan So I gave them all the rice. I have a grad shoot in a little bit, but after it I'm going to meet my friend for dinner I don't want to look crazy. So I just brought some makeup touch-ups my brushes my powder that I just got a refill on This is the Huda Beauty powder and I think it's one of the best actually prefer it over the Laura Mercier one now And I have it in the color banana bread And then I kind of was shitting on this palette a while ago I feel like I do that kind of often where I'm just like I don't really think it's that great and then I start using it again, and then I'm like, oh my god wait I kind of like it.  These are all the colors in them So it's kind of like a full face palette bronzer highlight blush And I'm just gonna take it for the blush because I love good blush moment. I'm gonna take that I have my camera bag ready to go from yesterday's shoe and then I'm in a dress because it's like 90 degrees outside and I'm going to be dying because yesterday was 80 degrees and I was already dying because UT's campus There's a lot of walking and then also kind of a lot of hills at least way more than my school had because I went to UCF And Florida is pretty flat. So I'm not used to all these freaking hills and steps and all that that reminds me I need to go find my up watch so I can make sure this workout is counted. All right Hold on one second getting my lighting relax that shoulder a bit good All right, ready three two one Perfect and tilt your head a little bit and chin down a little bit good Give me a giggle Relax the shoulder even more like put your hand down lower if you want.  So your head a little bit very cute. Look at me now and giggle and lean forward a lot. Perfect. Yes Switch up the shoes a little bit. Okay, three two Perfect three two and look at me and laugh lower the arm lower the hand. Sorry and yeah Three two and look at your mom Now lean in with that other shoulder. Perfect. Yes I just got done with the shoot and I expected it to be a lot hotter than it was but thank goodness It was like 90 degrees when I left the house and somehow it was just like really shady the whole time During our shoot and I also forgot my water in my car like I brought my water For the shoot and I forgot in my car. It was kind of dying because I feel like I'm talking I'm walking around I'm photographing and I feel like I can't even like catch my breath sometimes I guess that's good because I love when my grads are talkative, but I just pulled up into Griselda's I'm actually meeting my friend here that just moved to Austin. We went to high school together So she's from Georgia and I'm just so excited to have another person from Georgia moved Austin So that's really exciting her name's Senna. She was in a blog a while ago She was visiting and we went to Makoko. So we're keeping on the Mexican food train I'm really craving fajitas, but I know it's like such a big thing. So maybe we'll split The outfit with the boots I am obsessed. I really was trying to get on my comfort zone Especially by just not wearing jeans. I feel like I just always wear jeans So I don't know if I'm doing too much because this is literally just a casual lunch date with my friend But I have to get a photo today. I just have to we're going to South Congress too So I feel like we can find a cute old background. I really feel like I can look very extra But kind of loving it.  You just like Push it back and it just stays so well.  We walked over to his summer house.  I've never been back here, but it's so picturesque And this lobby Is stunning. I think I'm gonna take a pic right in front of this elevator because it looks cool Nancy is literally number one hype girl.  Wait, can you zoom? Sorry Let me show. Oh gosh. Don't show my nails.  This is a joke. You're Thank you. Thank you. Thank you Who I bumped into Natasha I feel like she's queen of south congress Literally, I I live here as much later. It's 5 20 and I'm actually hosting a girls game night tonight I'm really excited because me and Ryan actually wins target. Was it last weekend? I think it was we just like randomly got some games So we got scrabble late night taboo and then uno and it's funny because a lot of my friends are big games girls And the whole time I was just like uh game night Uh, but it's kind of fun when you like actually know how to play and just get really competitive Uh, and I was like literally craving to play scrabble because I also just like Want to learn more words also update on my nails A couple popped off today I'm not really sure if I should glue them back on or just like take them all off and redo them, but I'm going to Nashville in Three weeks, so I want to time it out perfectly So I can do my nails right before Nashville, but that's also south by southwest So I might do my nails Right before south by but I did say that the last time and I already know one nail is like super super short So maybe I'll just do gel x on one nail the one that's really short and then try to grow out My natural nails because This one is not Too bad, but I really haven't decided if I just want to glue them back on and be lazy Uh, but tonight we are actually cooking dinner. We haven't gone grocery shopping We've just been like eating whatever in the fridge and freezer Which there wasn't that much of the fridge, but there's definitely stuff in the freezer Um, and I got this chicken shawarma thing again from Trader Joe's. I've gotten it before it's pretty good Just like marinated chicken. So I think I'm going to do some kebabs tonight peppers and red onion Robot vacuum is going right now. So sorry about the loud noises in the back But here are the kebabs. How freaking delicious do they look? I love the red onions and the peppers. So I'm going to be chowing down tonight. And then I also made some Uh, cilantro lime rice. It is sundae. I have just not really been feeling Extremely motivated to vlog honestly. I just really don't feel like passionate anymore And I think it always happens around this time when I'm about to start grad season So that could definitely be it But I just feel like my vlogs have been so repetitive lately and I like Don't really know what to do to switch them up because my life is about to get even more monotonous because I'm gonna have grad sessions in the morning and night So I'll have them in all the day to do whatever I need to But I just feel like I'm gonna be very busy with like grad season and stuff If you guys don't know, I'm a photographer. I've probably said something about a shoot in this vlog, but Um, so I specialize in grads at ut austin And so grad season started last week or this past week And it goes until like may ish. So it's like almost every weekday Um, but this year I'm really just saying no to weekends because my weekends are sacred and then also I'm trying to just shoot on monday through wednesday and not thursday friday because I just want some wiggle room in case I need to reschedule someone if it like rains or if it's just really shitty weather Because last year I filled out my schedule with so many shoots And then it was really really hard to reschedule when I needed to so this year I'm saving myself from stress just in case we have another shitty weather spring when it comes to like rainy season But it is sunday. Like I said, we're gonna have another wholesome sunday So I thought I would add on to this vlog if you guys have any recommendations on what you want to see in the vlogs Specifically, please let me know. Um, I feel like I want to do like cooking more I definitely need to eat at home more so that won't go hand in hand So maybe I can incorporate more of that But I even like I'm thinking about just switching up the videos to not be just weak in my life. So maybe like Like challenges throughout the weeks, but still like vlog my week For example, like what I spend in a day or what I spend in a week in austin So like videos like that, but you guys let me know what you think I don't want to like stop vlogging, but I just want to feel really passionate about it especially because it does take so much time to like edit the videos and I'm just like not feeling it lately And I definitely prefer like all the other platforms over youtube like tiktok and instagram And I'm still definitely posting on there. So go follow me over there if you guys are interested It is so underscore gnarly without the g we're gonna start off the day by going to Uh, a new breakfast place called oven bird. Hopefully we can get in I just called and they said they had like a little bit of a wait, but not too bad Um, so let's go get some breakfast in us. We are in south austin trying out this place oven bird Hopefully it's good. I've actually had this saved on instagram for so long We got done with breakfast and I am kind of regretting not getting a matcha because I wanted to like get it later There's this like pop-up And I think they're called matcha boys. I'm not really sure but they're doing something at native hostel today And it's like starting at 2 p.m. So I kind of want to try it if we are Around the area So I wanted to save my caffeine for then I feel like if I get too much caffeine I'll be super super anxious I do not feel like feeling that today, but oven bird was like good. I don't think it's anything spectacular but I didn't try the matcha so That could have wowed me, but we're now at the domain I think we're gonna shop around and just like get some inspo for spring And we are also going on a couple's trip to nashville in march and south by southwest. It's happening that same week So I'm doing like half and half South by for the first half and then going to nashville for the second half of the week So we want to just like see if we can find any outfit inspo, especially for nashville Um, I know ryan wants to get some shoes. What are what are the shoes you're wanting to get the white on rocker fitter? Like leather on Thanks, we've been look I feel like we've been looking at those for like a year now Do more than that. Yeah, definitely more than that. Every time we go to norsum I'm just like you should get them and he never does but anyways Maybe he'll get them today And I don't really know what I'm shopping for but honestly I just want to get inspo because I want to go online shopping more I prefer online shopping But I just don't even know the vibe for nashville like my friends and I haven't really talked about it We're not going for a bachelorette party. So I don't know how like fancy we're gonna get like glitter sparkles fringe Or if we're gonna go more casual I do need to look for a green outfit though. You do too green. Yeah, because it's st. Patrick's day I'm probably gonna leave my camera in the car to be honest because it's so heavy also In my last vlog a comment I got was What is the camera you're filming on because it looks so compact, which is hilarious that that girl commented that Because it is like far from compact. It is this chunky ass camera with a long lens But I'm shooting on the sony a7 4 so it's like the newest model And the lens is a tamron 17 a 20 28 millimeters whenever people ask me for camera racks. I always point them to sonys But not this line, especially if you're just vlogging like this is not Necessary because I shoot my photography sessions with this camera as well So that's why I invested in this spotty But vlogging camera I used to use was the sony a5 100 And I don't know if they make that anymore because it was such an old model, but they have so many new versions of it. So it's like a 6400 I think is like one of the really good ones Um, it is a bit bigger, but I mean, I think you can still find the sony a5 100 on ebay I definitely recommend it just getting the body and then purchasing separate lenses Even like if you're getting like a bigger camera like especially if you're getting a bigger camera because Usually the kit lens is not all that great. And so you can save a little money by doing that We actually ended up just going to Nordstrom Um, and we didn't find anything Ryan didn't see the ons that he wanted They're more like a casual shoe. Would you say not like a not like an athletic shoe Or dress shoe, right Okay, well, I don't know casual Yeah, but now we're gonna go check out a matcha pop-up I've been following these people on instagram for a while and I never know where they are going to pop up And I don't think they like pop up very often But I saw that they were popping up at native hostel today. I've actually never been to native hostel So excited to be checking out a new place today. I think it's like a coffee shop, but it turns into a bar At night if I'm not mistaken, but it's on the east side. So very close to home