The following is a presentation of TFNN, the morning market kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good Monday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFNN 9.06 a.m. Monday morning. We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and markets picking things up in the negative. We get the S&Ps right now negative 21 points. I got a chart of the S&Ps up here. We're looking at 15 minute chart. Man, you look at the run we had from Wednesday to ending the day on Friday. You're talking about a move of approximately 150 points, almost to the tick. You had a low on Wednesday morning. You're talking about 43.21. You rise up to 44.69.50. We've given up some of those gains. You take a look at it on a daily. Quite the resurgence we had. September, we pull back. You make some lows there. September 30th, actually make a recent low on October 1st. Volatility kicks off October trading, but the market's really picking up. I mean, remarkable. You're talking about an S&P within about 100 points of all time highs as we ratchet up earnings in a big way kicking things off this week. Last week we had banks. Banks beating a pretty big way and you had some volatility in those banks. Let's jump over for a moment as we recap. Bank of America to the upside in a big way from 42.50 early on Wednesday's action. Yep. That's Wednesday's action to close out the week above 46. JP Morgan kicked it off earlier in the week as well. You see all the banks basically right near high city, 72.29 Wells Fargo, kind of a little bit of an outlier early in the week. But man, look at that thing charge higher on Friday, 48.38. The price of close on Friday. Alright, what we have going on. Let's start it off with Bitcoin. Bitcoin down about $1,500 right now at $60,540. So interesting. This may be the week that we get a Bitcoin ETF may happen tomorrow from ProShares. Pulling up the numbers in terms of when you may get this happening. ProShares, Invesco, Van Act, Valkyrie, Galaxy all in line coming up in the next couple of weeks. The story out there though is talking about that it may be coming down the line tomorrow. I believe it was from here we go. First Bitcoin futures ETF to make its debut on the NYC Tuesday ProShares says, so they filed for it unless there's some unanticipated action from the SEC that takes it offline. They will be coming online tomorrow. Man, a lot of expectations. When you think about where we've been in Bitcoin, you've just risen from 30,000 basically to 60,000, a double banker. All I'd encourage you folks is if you're looking to getting in this thing, right, you back it up to this is a monthly going back to December of 2017. Hard to remember it at that time. That's how long ago we're talking about futures in Bitcoin started trading four years ago almost, right? Remarkable. Seems like just recently that futures became the thing. I remember when Bitcoin futures were a thing. It was the first time that it was shortable in a regulatory environment. And what did Bitcoin do? It went from 20,000 down to 3000. Talk about a buying opportunity. You had a 20-bagger back then basically from the beginning of 2019. You start 2019 in the 3300 range. You're trading at 60,000 and 510. The point being, it might be a rumor of buy the rumors, sell the news as in they're buying it in anticipation of that going live. When it does go live, will you be able to sustain $60,000 Bitcoin? Nobody really knows because it's going to be interesting to see how momentum plays out on Bitcoin here as people buy the ETF. I imagine that ETF is going to have to secure Bitcoin much in the same way that the gold ETFs would. That will provide momentum and volatility more so on the upside. But guess what? It's going to provide volatility to the downside as well because when they're selling Bitcoin, it's going to provide more selling. There you go. Nonetheless, we might get a Bitcoin ETF starting tomorrow. We're kicking things off at about 60,000. But there you see the pullback. We go into Friday at 63,000, 525 already. Some of the anticipation possibly waning as you're down almost $3,000 from the highs. You look where we were, you had to print at 330 this morning of 63,230. So almost a $3,000 pullback and the price of Bitcoin still above 60,000. Speaking of commodities, how about crude posting $83 this morning, $83.18. Gold contract right now down about $3. Gold had some big time volatility last week. Big acceleration on Wednesday. We give it up on Friday. We're trading at $17.65. Silver's up $0.12 at $23.22 and we jump to notes and bonds. You're seeing a little bit of a pullback here. We pull up the yield. So the 10-year right now is down 14 ticks at $130.17. We're looking at a yield right now of 1.62% on the 10-year. We wrote like 1.55, 1.53, something like that. You look at the move we've had. You're talking about from where we were Thursday. Right now, this was a big part of the week, everything going on. But where we were Thursday, you were at $131.20. We'll call it $131.195. We round up on the 5. $131.20. Your town of full point and six ticks in the 10-year in a matter of a couple of days almost. Really, the pullback happening all through Friday. You ended Friday's action at about $130.30 and therefore we're down about 14 additional ticks. And we jump to the VIX. Volatility index this morning at the VIX. We ended last week with a remarkable 15-handle on the VIX. We're trading at 1717 as we kick off trading for the week. All right. So it's a big week of earnings as we really kick things off with some of the tech companies out here. I got a list of what we're looking at. Let's start it off with Netflix. They're going to be the biggest name out there. They've had quite a run recently. Netflix this morning, you're trading up about $3, some $6.28 to $6.31. All the markets are in the red. But Netflix, all the anticipation this week, they'll be out with their numbers. We jump over to the Analyze tab. Jump over to the, come on, update, update for me. I know it's not November 11th. October 19th, they're out with their numbers tomorrow. And I believe it's going to be after the market. Yes, Netflix is out after the market. So some of the other companies out tomorrow that go with it. You got United Airlines after the bell as well. Before the bell tomorrow, you got Proctor and Gamble, Halliburton, Fifth Third Bank Corp. Some of the banks rounding things out. Some of the more regional banks. On Wednesday, we get Citizens Financial. We get Abbot Laboratories. We got Biogen. Verizon is out Wednesday before the market as well. And after the close, we get IBM, Equifax, Tesla, the other big name. Yeah.  As I mentioned, United is out there as well. What do we got? We got some airlines, American Airlines, I said on Thursday, Alaska on Thursday, Southwest on Thursday, Chipotle, Mexican Grill after the close on Thursday. So we got some numbers coming right at it. American Express on Friday, Slumberger, Honeywell International on Friday as well. Netflix, you're looking about a 5% move priced into their earnings. So tomorrow after the bell, you jump over to the trade. We're looking for implied volatility here. Netflix, $628 stock. If you just want action through the earnings event, you're talking about $31 implied move.  That tells you how much a volatility premium is priced into that one event. But if you're buying or selling, the expiration is coming up for Friday. You have an implied move of $36 in either direction. Now, we pull up Netflix, we take a look at the daily. This thing has been quite a rocket ship. Let's back it up a little bit more to get the full run. And this thing, man, you go from $250 at the end of 2019 up to $520. You consolidate for a period of about 13, 14 months, and then you break out from $500 to $628. You're talking about making basically all-time highs in the last couple of weeks. Netflix with a $36 move priced in for the move this week on their earnings. Now, we jump to Tesla as we come into this first break. Tesla's been on quite a terror as well, and you're adding to that this morning. Tesla, just rising from 546 May 17th, you're talking about in five months. This thing's going from 546 to 856 or more. So you got a bid ask of 850 this morning on Tesla. And Tesla, you're talking about a $43 move. So about a 5% move for Tesla and Netflix for their earnings coming up this week. We'll take a little look at Tesla as we get back from the break. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. 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But you're talking about 24 bucks, give or take. You're talking about $40 to $50 to $60 from at the money spread in either direction. That's quite a move. If you're the one paying the premium for those directional moves, you really got some, got to get some big moves to start making some profits on top of making up the premium that you're paying in that equity. But as we all know, Tesla sometimes has some big moves in it. Okay, what else we got going down the line here? Let's jump to one of the other big dogs out there, Amazon. How about planning to hire 150,000 employees for the holiday 50% more than 2020? That might cost some money, folks, to hire that many people. Might be a theme coming through the line. Amazon, you're down about 10 bucks today. Now, Amazon just ratcheted higher on Wednesday. I think it was up like 3%. What is that? It goes from 3,300 to 3,409, 110 bucks. Yeah, you're talking about almost a 3% run on Amazon to close above 3,400. You get back part of the game today. Now, Amazon numbers, they're out late 28th. Okay, not bad. 10 days from now, we're going to find out 150,000 workers, about 50% more than last year as they seek a cushion of workers to help meet demand. The last thing Amazon wants is everybody posting on social media that they order their presents and nobody's getting Christmas presents this year because Amazon couldn't deliver them. Online retailer, largest one out there typically hires legions, but this year it's a different story. Since the pandemic supercharged online shipping last year, they've rapidly expanding logistics operations. It had opened 250 US logistics facilities in 2021 alone. I mean, imagine trying to compete with this company where just in the last 10 months, they've opened 250 more logistics facilities and they're going to inaugurate an additional 100 in September alone as they're really ratcheting things up. Now, the average starting pay for jobs in the US was 18 bucks an hour. Yeah, fierce competition for entry level workers, they got signing bonuses of 3,000 bucks depending on the location and as much as $3 per hour for workers willing to work overnight. I mean, you add the three to the 18, you're talking about 21 bucks an hour, you have a $3,000 bonus in there. They're the second largest private employer after Walmart employing 1.3 million people last year at this time. The company said it would hire 100,000 seasonal workers. So they had a 50,000 number on there for Amazon shares, Amazon down marginally with the market to kick things off on Monday trading. Excuse me, now you want to talk about being down to start off Monday trading. Zillow, I'll be watching my dad show it. Well, he is, we got a treat for you today actually. Basil Chapman is going to be filling in for my dad this afternoon, but Tom, he'll be back tomorrow. And Basil's got an outstanding webinar coming out tomorrow, folks. We're going to talk about that later in the show. But my dad's been talking about this in terms of Zillow buying these houses and turns out he was probably onto something because they're abandoning that plan for right now. They were losing a tremendous amount of money in this venture trying to basically flip houses with very small margins. The market liked it because it provided some growth possibilities even if they were losing money in the short term. But looks like that's not doing so well as the company is working to clear its backlog of properties. Their dad about 7% will pull up the chart in a moment. They're down more than that I think actually recently. There's Zillow from 97 down to 87. So almost a 10%. No, 95 to 87. Okay, yeah.  We pull up a chart of this thing. I mean, does that make sense for how this real estate environment has been going, folks, that you were at $208 earlier in the year?  You're still talking about $140 down to 97. You put it on a three-year weekly. You see that we're going to open back up at $87. You're back to where we were over a year ago in Zillow. Now, they acquired more than 3,800 homes during the second quarter. They've seen the stock tumble, okay, after it nearly tripled. I'm trying to get this done. Yeah, so here's the shares have come under additional pressure recent weeks. Vegas said an unnamed company was pulling off a convoluted scheme to manipulate housing prices in its home market. Zillow's facing increased competition from firms like Open Door Technologies that are doing the same thing. Nonetheless, they're abandoning those plans and looks like it just was not going as they thought. There were stories out there in terms of Zillow buying the property, trying to flip it. Only months later, they did not want to be holding properties to be open to the swings of the real estate environment and the market. They were really trying to buy a property and almost flip it in a period of a month or two using algorithms to recognize underappreciated assets, potentially. Nonetheless, that deal not going as expected. I'm sure we'll hear more about that in the coming months as they talk about what went right and what did not go right. As we wait for Netflix earnings coming up, we're all probably familiar with the show Squid Game as of now. It looks like a new show knocked them off. I'm not familiar with the show. I guess it's called You. It's the third season of the American Thriller You. It looks like they got knocked off there for a little bit, but nonetheless. You know what? This is perfect. Who do we got on the line? We got my dad on the line. He heard me talking Zillow. He couldn't help it. Let's go. Good morning. What's going on, dad? What's going on, pal? How you doing, man? Good, man. How about this Zillow? You talked about it many times, man. I saw that headline this morning. I cracked up. Looks like losing all that money, not a recipe for future profits that they think maybe. It's not. It was amazing actually when Zillow first came out and said, okay, they're going to buy houses and they're going to flip them. It's like, okay, man. We've been doing this for a long time, and people think the spreads are much bigger than they are. It's like, okay, tonight, you're going to get a month coming in the marketplace. I mean, the folks that got to take advantage of it is great.  They were losing, I think, with almost like $22,000, $23,000 to house. They decided to buy it and sell it. Yeah, and the market loved that they had some big growth numbers, right? I mean, they were doing it to a lot of houses. They were, and it's like, okay. So now, I mean, they have in there, they're having a hard time. Okay, and that's real. And what's also happening is supplies, you know? So they're probably really smart, stop it. That's the bottom line. We'll see what ends up happening here.  Everyone, I don't blame them. They want to do it. But the reality is, is that once you start just, you know, it's interesting, just the closing cost on buying and selling, you know, a house ends up being like three to five percent. Never mind, you know, the rest of it. And that turns into monster money when you start talking to a 300,000 dollars at a pot, you know? Yeah. The person who solves that one, man, in terms of that amount of money getting taken out of the market, we'll probably make it with Boku. But the one last thing to add is it's pretty remarkable they couldn't make money in an environment that just keeps going straight up, right? Imagine if they were having a market that actually went down. Exactly. Yeah. Cool, man. All right, man. We'll catch you calling in. Have a great Monday. Okay, thank you. Love you, man. Okay, move on. Stay tuned, folks. We get the market. S&P is down 18. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We've got markets open and we've got the S&Ps down about 18 points. 44-44 to kick off the trading week. Jumping around to what else we have going on. We already got earnings out for Albertsons. ACI is their symbol, traded higher, but gives it all up.  Give it a few minutes as we open. We're back in the green. Marginal action in terms of oscillating right where we were the close of Friday. Now, Albertsons, same-store sales surprise. How about same-store sales rising 1.5% during the second fiscal quarter? They said that this morning before earnings. Market was looking for a 1.9% decline in adjusted earnings for the fiscal year, as much as $2.60 a share, up $0.30 from the previous forecast. Strong numbers there, surprising to see it actually jumping to a share, a negative action on the open. Adjusted earnings rose $0.64 a share in the quarter ended September 11th, compared with 46 cent average analyst estimate. So $0.64 versus $0.46, sales increased 4.7% to $16.5 billion. The market was looking for $15.9. They raised the quarterly dividend to $0.12 versus $10. How are you barely flat on those numbers? You were almost $2 higher at the beginning. Maybe they're talking about something on that conference call, but nonetheless, we dropped out of bed right at $9.15 before the market opens for Albertsons shares. Okay, what else we got going on? Let's jump to Goldman. We're going to cover a couple of Goldman stories out here. First, let's talk about Goldman and their own action. They are raising money. Post-earnings bank bond frenzy with a five-part sale, they're tapping the U.S. investment-grade bond market, joining Bank of America, Morgan Stanley. It's amazing these banks, right? They don't need the cash, folks, but when you can get the cash at these interest rates, they're going for it, and you can't fault them. They're selling bonds in five parts. The longest portion of the offering fixed to a floating rate security due in 2032 is going to yield only 120 basis points above treasuries. Proceeds are just going to be for general corporate purposes. Yeah, and you're going to see that theme persist. There's no way, the best time to get a loan, folks, is when you don't need one, right? When the market's cascading, we see at the banks, they pull all the credit lines, can't fault them there. They did it during the collapse during COVID, and nonetheless, they're raising money, not surprising there for Goldman. Let's jump over to Goldman, see how these banks are trading on the open. There's Goldman up another two-thirds percent, JP Morgan right now, basically flat, Bank of America flat as well, Citi flat as well after some big numbers last week. Okay, the next Goldman story talks about the economy. Goldman says cash pile will drive equity allocations to new highs. Talk about the bull case. High valuations won't be a barrier to increase stock allocations next year due to lack of alternatives and big cash piles. Record allocations by households, foreign investors, mutual and pension funds are set to climb even higher in 2022. This is a note out Friday. It belies the argument that stocks have reached unsustainable highs with Bank of America recently saying valuations have accelerated to extremes. You get both cases out there, and a lot of people making both cases. Their gung-ho view on stocks comes amid growing expectations that the Fed's going to hike interest rates. It sees the 10-year treasury, so it's 1.8% in 12 months. Not a bad number. What are we sitting at? We're sitting at right now 1.6%. That is not that high, folks. If the 10 years at 1.8%, we might have some higher numbers in the stock market. The real risk there is you see inflation, you see higher yields, and that number skyrockets from there. Equity allocations are already at an all-time high of 52% are on the rise because cash yields are near zero, and households own half of the $28 trillion of U.S. cash assets. Did you catch that one? $28 trillion of U.S. cash assets. Fixed income alternatives to equities appear unattractive on an absolute and historical basis. It's tough to argue with, right? You've got a rising inflationary environment. You're going to lock in a fixed income interest rate of 1.6%, 2%, whatever it is. Goldman expects companies to have $350 billion of net demand for stocks next year to record buyback authorizations and strong merger and acquisition activity. Household and foreign investors will be net buyers of $300 billion, and mutual and pension funds will sell a net $400 billion. It said big numbers out there, but you're seeing the bull case out there in a big way. All right. What else we got going on? Let's see. Headlines I have up here. Let me jump around a bit and see what I had pulled up. Yeah, we talked about Netflix. We talked about Tesla a bit. They got Tesla all over the place in terms of Tesla shares roaring back as we await their earnings on October 20th. It's the most expensive FANG index on forward PE. Tesla, what's the number they have in here? I think you're at 120 times earning something staggering like that. Trying to find that number. I had it up here. There we go. Value addition. The company is not the only the biggest automaker in the world. It's a market capitalization over $845 billion is bigger than all of the top car companies put together. The market capitalization fails to reflect the wave of competing cars from legacy auto companies expected to hit the market starting next year. It's interesting how this is all coming to roost, right? We hear it in terms of electronic vehicles. They're catching up. The argument in Tesla's case is that they are an energy company. They harness energy. They're not a car company, folks. Whether they're a data company, they're a technology company, they're an energy company. That is the valuation that you argue that Tesla deserves. And there it is. Tesla currently trades at 120 times. They're 12 month forward earnings making them the most expensive stock in the NYSE plus FANG index whose other nine members, you're talking about the big dogs out there, NVIDIA, Google, Apple, Twitter, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Alibaba and Baidu. Now, interesting they talk about this NYSE plus FANG index. The earnings on this NYSE FANG index in total, I think it's at about 20 times forward earnings. The S&P right now is coming in at like 16 times and I'm paraphrasing those numbers. I think they're ballpark to those numbers. The reason why they've come down so dramatically is because of these two stocks in particular. The spread between the S&P earnings, forward time earnings and the spread between the FANG earnings is the tightest ever, not ever, going back to I should say about I think 2018, 2019. There's a great article on Bloomberg. I'll try and see if I can pull it up at the next break because it talked about the spread in terms of everybody thinks tech stocks are overvalued, but you take the big dogs out there, you look at their forward earnings and you have Facebook actually trading under the S&P earnings. Now, that was as of a week or two ago. All right, and we look at the run, let's take up the daily. Yeah, it's been chopping around. So Facebook was actually at 15 times earnings or something like that pointing to the markets saying, guess what, the future might not be as rosy as we imagine on Facebook, Tesla, the market valuation still through the roof as we continue to rise. I mean, you're talking about right now, we jump over to the fundamentals tab on the thinkorswim platform and you're talking about a company valued at $857 billion. I mean, just for some context folks, you jump over to a company like Ford and you're valued at $62 billion. GM, $83 billion, let alone Toyota, which was the biggest one out there for the longest time, $246 billion, Tesla more than three times the size of Toyota Motors and the forward earnings, nothing like of course, a company like Tesla. And there is Toyota's chart as well. We'll put it back on a weekly. We'll take a look at the S&P and this morning we're giving up some of the gains. You're making basically session lows right now with 44.37 with the S&Ps down 25, tech stocks barely in the red. Right now, you're getting a little bit of volatility but higher on the open with the NASDAQ down 59, the Dow really accelerating 34,919 so much for 35,000 Dow and we got the Russell down about 13 points. Crude holding up well at 82.80 and Bitcoin 61,700 ahead of the first ETF possibly tomorrow from ProShares Bitcoin trading 61,780 folks will be right back after the break. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. From the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating, Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market. 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The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor for Site Fund Services, LLC. 3rd quarter. Weakening to 4.9%, growth set to slow further after weakening to 4.9% in the 3rd quarter. Down from 7.9% in the previous quarter and largely in line with economist predictions. China and Europe are also experiencing growth problems on the back of supply chain issues. On Monday China reported its 3rd quarter GDP grew a disappointing 4.9% from the previous quarter. They put disappointing in here. It's in line with expectations though for some context. As industrial activity rose less than expected in September though, when you break down the numbers below the headline number, that number industrial activity 3.1% below the 4.5% expected with supply chain issues contributing to the slowdown in activity. There you go. All right. What do we have? I got a couple articles I want to talk about. Is this the one? That is not the one I want to talk about. Let me make sure I get the right article up here. Here we go. Talking about the Fed and growth. Fed staff says Wall Street is getting inflation call all wrong. My dad sent up this article to me this morning. Interesting article out there talking about the Fed economists, the inflation undershooting 2% target in 2022. Now, this is an economics article from Bloomberg. Research shows that Fed staff forecast are usually more accurate. Usually is quite a word, especially in the context that we are in a very unusual time in history, which makes it very difficult to forecast estimates as we've seen that estimates have been wildly inaccurate, depending on where you are in the economy. The Federal Reserve's army of more than 400 PhD economists has a message on inflation for policymakers and the American public chill out. Well, some officials are publicly anxious about rising prices and Wall Street has ramped up its forecast. The Fed staff in Washington predicts inflation will be back under 2% in 2022, according to the minutes from last month's meeting released on October 13th. As well as being below the FOMC's long-term 2% target, it's less than half the 4.3% pace that the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures recorded the year through August. Talking about the numbers that we have through August, it's going to be cut in half if they reach that number. Now, here's where you get into things, okay? Everybody has their biases, folks, okay? When somebody tells you that they can separate themselves from the biases, the Supreme Court of the United States, unfortunately, become a little bit politicized in many people's mind, but those are supposed to be the greatest justices, hopefully, in the world, right? That they're supposed to be able to look at a case, separate their own biases. Even they have to recuse themselves because the whole definition of a personal bias is something that is very difficult for you to separate yourself from. I say that because they have in here, Claudia Somme, not familiar, a former Fed economist. While you have a former Fed economist in here saying that you should listen to Fed economists because they know what they're talking about, take that for what it's worth. She is arguing that you should take their predictions very seriously. It doesn't mean it's right, but you have the top forecasters in the world preparing the numbers, looking over time. There's no forecasting shop that can come even close to the board's analysis of near-term economy, keeping in mind, again, she's talking about herself in a prior role in that position. Jerome Powell and his colleagues expect elevated inflation to abate next year, okay, but officials say there's a high degree of uncertainty that would be putting it lightly. Now, staff forecast a year ago, this is what I want to get into, anticipated inflation would pick up from levels at that time of around 1.3%, but not the leap that in fact happened. Policymakers projected inflation of just 1.7% for 2021, folks. Did you hear that? Their forecast, the one who Claudia Somme, not familiar, not thrown her under the bus, I'm sure there's many other people out here that would argue the same thing, but you should take their forecast very seriously.  Powell has mainly asked during his post-meeting press conferences about the risk of continuing to undershoot the Fed's 2% goal. He voiced confidence that inflation would rise, okay, so that was how they talked about things during that time. Even so, Fed staff forecasts have regularly bettered Wall Street consensus forecast, according to St. Louis Fed Economist. Again, a Fed Economist, the fact that they keep asking Fed Economists for their views of Fed Economists in this article is probably not the best course that Fed Economists know. They've co-authored documented a significant advantage in 2019, and as we've already been more aware of the consensus forecast, the Economist said in a Thursday interview, just keep in mind, folks, this is unlike any other time that we've ever had trying to forecast where we are in a year with the number of variables that we've had that we've never plotted on a historical basis is just so difficult. And then you have a Bloomberg Economist saying, with regard to their sub-2% forecast for next year, I think it's plausible, of course it's plausible, anything's possible, but both I and they would hasten that a full appreciation for just how wide the confidence intervals are around any inflation forecast. There you go. All right. You can't be that confident when things can just skew wildly from left to right or up or down. A less than 2% inflation forecast compares the FOMC participants who are expecting 2.2% inflation in 2022. Just keep in mind how much they missed the number from last year, folks, when they were talking about that number coming up for this year in terms of where they are. Okay. What else we got going on, folks? I talked about our man, Basil Chapman, tomorrow, 4 o'clock. Basil will be in there with subscribers for his newsletter, the opening call. He'll be doing a 90-minute webinar. That webinar, what to prepare for into year's end and what sectors to focus on. Basil's going to be in there with subscribers, as I said, 90 minutes, right after Tom's program tomorrow. And Basil will be hosting Tom's program today. So Basil's coming up at 10 o'clock. He's doing double duty. He's coming up at 3 o'clock today as well. You can send Basil questions, folks, directly to cover in this webinar for subscribers to the opening call, whether you send him to Basil Chapman at tfnn.com. You can always call him on the program,<PHONE_NUMBER>. And when you do that, you gain access to his archived webinars that he has for subscribers. Basil also did an outstanding video, folks, on Saturday for a market overview for subscribers, a 37-minute long video talking about the markets, a complete overview for subscribers. So I encourage you to sign up for the opening call. You gain access to the opening call, his daily trading service. You gain access to his archived webinars. You gain access to the 37-minute long video. That's a webinar in its own right, folks. He does it almost every Saturday. I'm not going to say every Saturday because it's not every Saturday, but it basically is. He puts out a video every Saturday now for subscribers, 37 minutes long. He just did one on Saturday. You instantly gain access to that for a full market overview. You gain access tomorrow night for 90 minutes. You get a month of his newsletter, and it comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee. Can't go wrong there. Check it out on the front page at tfnn.com, four till 5.30. And of course, that will be archived if you can't attend live. It should be an outstanding webinar, as usual, with our man, Basil Chapman. And stay tuned because he's coming up next, Basil, with the Tiger Technicians Hour. All right, checking back in on the markets. And what do you know, folks? They're buying the dip. NASDAQ charging to higher prices at four points. Growth stocks higher. We get the S&Ps minus by six. We get the Dow off 126. Come on back. We'll finish up the show. We're going to be talking about one of my favorite stocks, trade and lower, on a downgrade today. Disney, after some news on Friday that they might spin off ESPN. Not sure that that's a real deal. Nonetheless, down about 3% today for Disney. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure. But you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis. And it's not just dry tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV. Live every market day from 8.30 AM to 4 PM for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN, educating investors. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors.  The target first mortgage program may be the program for you. 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You get all the markets in the red right now, but all the markets catching a little bit of a bit on the open. S&P is negative by just 7 right now. NASDAQ 100 negative by, we'll call it 7 as well. Jump over. They're talking about Macy's in the YouTube Tigers. My goodness, look at this one. Up 4% today from Macy's. Didn't see any news off the bat. Retail stocks charging higher on Friday. Maybe just an extension of that. You get a dollar boost right at the beginning of the open there from 24 to 25 Macy's. High above 4%. You jump over to Amazon, up by about a third of a percent. Some of the tech stock's doing well today. Microsoft barely in the green right now. Apple's going to have an event today. I believe they're talking about new MacBook Pros that they'll be pushing out. Apple right now down about a half a percent. Other news we got fundamentally today. Factory output falling in fresh supply chain warning. This morning, speaking of supply chains, as we have, manufacturing production falling 0.7% the most since February. The declines reflect pullback in motor vehicles and non-durable goods. You get into the number there. Quite a decline. 0.7% decrease. The market was looking for a 0.1% monthly increase in both factory production and industrial output. Total industrial production, which includes mining and utility output, fell 1.3% in there. Car troubles, a big number. You had motor vehicle and parts output fell 7.2% last month. That's after a 3.2% decline in August. Automakers, including Toyota, they've been slashing numbers. They're still dealing with some big problems here in a big way. Those car companies, you're talking about decreasing numbers at a time when they just can't get a hold of the chips they need to produce the cars they need to. Let's just jump around again. We get Tesla this week. Tesla, look at this. It doesn't stop. Tesla up 2.1% ahead of their numbers. Netflix. Watch out. Netflix down to 2.3% trading at $6.24. We got Chipotle Mexican Grill later in the week as well. Chipotle up about 2.10%. We take a look at the three-year weekly. This thing's been quite a rocket ship. From the lows of $400 during COVID, we came into this year at $1,400. We're trading at $1,835. When we'll finish it up, about a $76 move. You're talking about $1,800 stock priced into their earnings coming up on Thursday, I believe, 21st. Yes, it is Thursday. All right, folks. Thanks so much for tuning in.


Hello and welcome to this special episode of daily debrief where we go to Latin America and two vital electoral processes in Mexico and Guatemala. But before we go any further, don't forget to subscribe to our channel. In today's show we take a look at two important elections, one that is already concluded and one that is scheduled for next year. We begin with the election to come in Mexico in June 2024. Now the ruling progressive Morena party has decided its presidential candidate Dr. Claudia Sheenbaum, the former head of government of Mexico City. An environmental scientist, a former student activist and a veteran politician, Sheenbaum will now seek to carry forward the legacy of the incumbent Unreal Manuel Lopez Obrador Amlo under whose administration the country has made some substantial gains. We have with us Zoe to understand more about these primates. Well it has been officially defined that two women will be contesting the presidency in Mexico in 2024. These are when the general elections will be held. And on Wednesday, September 6, Morena, which is the national regeneration movement, the Morena party, defined who its presidential candidate would be. This was defined through a month's long internal consultation process, through rigorous polling and consulting amongst the base of the party. And there were four different pollsters used and all of them, which the results were handed over on Wednesday and announced that Claudia Sheenbaum, Dr. Claudia Sheenbaum, one of the founders of the Morena party and a protege of current president Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador would be the presidential candidate for this party. She was running against five other contenders, including the former foreign minister Marcelo Obrador. He, on the other hand, had been for the past several weeks kind of building up to a sort of intent to say that there was fraud in the process. He had previously denounced publicly how the consultation was taking place, despite it being the product of an extensive agreement between all six of the candidates that were running for this candidacy. On the day that the ticket was announced, which was this past Wednesday, he declared on social media that fraud had been taking place and that he was stepping out of the process. Then, of course, later that day it was confirmed that Claudia Sheenbaum had been picked as the favorite. She had got around 40% in all of the polls that had been done, whereas Marcelo Obrador polled behind her, which was already predicted in all of the prior polling that had been taken place by different news agencies and pollsters. He received about 25% of the vote share, of course, disqualifying him for becoming a candidate. But he announced that night that he was no longer, he said, there's no longer space for me in Morena and that he was going to potentially run for president without this party. So a very interesting development, Claudia Sheenbaum will, of course, be running against right-wing candidate, Sotito Galvez. She is the candidate for the right-wing opposition alliance, frente amplio por México, the broad front for Mexico. This is composed of the two ruling class parties, PRI and PAN, who have ruled over Mexico for decades. The election of Andrés Manuel López Obrador in 2018 was actually breaking with the long tradition of these two parties ruling over the country. And as we know, the fourth transformation, which was brought forward by AMLO during his presidency, which had a massive impact on the population of Mexico, the indexes, for example, of extreme poverty and of poverty in the country have decreased importantly. The Mexican peso has gained strength as opposed to the dollar. There have been a number, there's been a raise in minimum wage for people across the country. So these are really important advancements that have taken place through this fourth transformation of Mexico. And of course, the right-wing very much used to having control over the country, being able to take from the state and do all sorts of other things, have impunity for corruption, impunity for human rights violations has not been so happy with this government. And so it is going to be a very, very intense race in 2024. Again, Claudia Schaenbaum, Dr. Claudia Schaenbaum facing off against Sotirio Galvez in these upcoming elections. And our next story is from Guatemala recently, but not our Rivalo was elected as president, but we're definitely in a weird situation as this president-elect just a week ago, warned that there was an ongoing coup against his victory. And now there's not something new there with a lot of attacks, political attacks against his party over the years. And this definitely does not port well for democracy in Guatemala. We go back to Zoe for more details. So on August 20th, Guatemala held the second round of its presidential elections and Bernardo Rivalo of the Central Semia Movement had actually won the second round of presidential elections. This was a historic victory. Again, he faced off against Sandra Torres, who's from the National Unity of Hope Party, a center-right party. They both had already defeated the traditional ruling parties in Guatemala in the first round of the elections. But of course, Bernardo Rivalo ran and is running with a sort of progressive platform, an anti-corruption platform, and really breaking with traditional politics that have ruled in Guatemala for the past several decades. Very important to note that throughout this whole electoral process, as we've covered on people's dispatch, there have been numerous irregularities. There had been an attempt to to bar certain candidates from participating, to not only from the left, but also from other sectors. These had been successful in some cases. And for example, even Rivalo's own party, the Movimento Semilla, had also faced judicial repression. There had been a back and forth between the courts that the party had been barred, it had had their legal representatives suspended, even following the first round of the elections. And following the victory of Rivalo, once again, the party was barred, actions taken against it. Again, there had been a back and forth with the court, the constitutional court ruling that this was illegal, the supreme electoral tribunal, also taking actions. And this is sort of taking, this has raised the alarm bells across Guatemala, but also across the world in terms of what is, what is the motivation, what's behind all of these actions and an attempt to kind of bar the party in an attempt to make sure that Rivalo does not actually get sworn in. Again, he won the elections on August 20th, but for example, Sandra Torres has still refused to actually accept his victory. Most recently this week, Luis Almagro, the Secretary General of the Organization of the American States, which as we know, a historic instrument of US imperialism in the region, actually visited Guatemala because of concerns over the results in this electoral process. Because, for example, Torres is not recognizing the results. And he met with both parties in an attempt to kind of bridge this dialogue. There's already been manifestations from even governments of the global north in recognizing Rivalo's victory and saying that his victory should be protected and that his rights should be protected. It is again a very tenuous situation. Sandra Torres refuses to back down, continues to allege the frauds at place and continues to demand that there be a recount and that her essentially demanding that she be declared victorious in these elections, Rivalo has requested, for example, protective measures from the Inter-American Human Rights Commission. There has been a lot of back and forth regarding this. And there have even been rumors of death threats made against him and members of the Simeon party. So it's a very tense situation. And of course, it hopefully will be resolved without any escalation in any of these threats. And it will definitely be developing over the next couple of days in terms of what is going through the response to the right-wing sectors. Again, many governments in the region have already recognized his victory. And so it's really just pending on the Guatemalan authorities to kind of back off of this repression against the party, against him and really respect the rule of law and the will of the people. And that's all we have time for in today's episode. Do keep watching future episodes of Daily Debrief on People's Dispatch. And don't forget to hit that subscribe button.


the formidable Roma Well as of writing this today marks the first start of December already Which means a new update on November 10th of this year someone uploaded the Christmas special of Mortimer's Manor It was aired on sci-fi, TBS, A&E, and Spike Later that same day Corn Fan 12, Pugford Bash, and Sponge Maniac Studios uploaded three parts of the Christmas special But were later taken down via copyright Now remember back when I said that the Christmas one was gonna be baffling well get ready This one talks about depictions of gore that are worse than another dreadful Thanksgiving Accordingly the special was not made by Jonathan York But it was made by ex robotronical character animator 4th rank Tommy Wade in price and rumored to have Timberbeek man But told to co-direct the movie but was handed over by please mind the graveyard writer Tim Klein The special started with snow and a rendition of the nutcracker song with a new logo a Mortimer's Manor Christmas special The camera slowly goes inside the manor where it shows Mortimer wearing a Christmas sweater and was over by the fireplace A soft sigh was heard before Mortimer spoke Happy holidays mere mortals. We just finished Thanksgiving off just fine But I'm not so sure if you mere mortals even dare touch this story I give you the gift Mortimer holds out a box as it transitions into a present box Christmas Day 2004 was shown in the corner before it showed a group of chatting adults and two teenagers Alright boys, let's see what your uncles and aunts got you The two open up to see casual normal stuff some highlights include Whoa a PlayStation portable Chris said excitedly. I got a PlayStation 2 slim Chris's brother Luke said it all seemed normal even great Until there were two left marked from Santa the two opened their gifts The two's happy faces went to weird faces Everything seemed to stop as the two looked Well, the mom asked the two pulled out an obscure console The Panasonic Wonder Wizard Chris said I am the console and the pack-in game slaughter claws The two were thankful and things seemed normal until the two plugged in the console and inserted the cartridge into said console The game started with a dialogue a digitally spoken Santa was heard You've all met through my past now You all shall face the fear of slaughter claws with my axe in hand my guns in my sack I shall bring these rebels come to their knees The two were in awe Whoa Chris said obviously mind blown Well mom and dad said to play this for a bit Luke said as the two started on the first two levels But to Chris they felt to real in each two rounds You had to rhythmically go into each chimney and kill the parents with digital slashing noises Pixelated screams and the menacing laugh of slaughter claws Then came the third round you had to ride your sleigh while getting people's Decapitated heads like a demented game of baseball Some of the kids looked like the kids from the two schools The two were God smacked utterly stupefied, but they pushed on to the fourth level What came next was anything but a video game. They were at what looked like their house Slaughter claws pulled out a double barrel shotgun and blasted the dad the dad split in half as his body flew out the window Hey Chris doesn't this A loud crash and yell was heard Luke screamed This game. It's real Chris said as he dropped the controller and checked their dad He seemed fine. That's when a message popped up bonus round with bright pixelated music It shows the two's models in what looked like an archery Slaughter claws pulled out a bow and arrow Before the two died and the episode ended the last pixelated words from slaughter claws was Merry Christmas Luke and Chris. Oh Two loud screams were heard before allowed and Were heard the two were shown impaled in the head with the mother alive and faintly screaming The segment ended showing more to me again. He chuckled in his throat Oh Santa He knows when you're sleeping or when you're awake, but don't expect him to give you coal He let out a manic laugh before sighing Well happy holidays from more to me as manner Till then stay tuned. There's more festive stories and demented tales waiting for us Don't stay up too long It ended with more to me or cackling as allowed Was heard coming from the mansion's doors ending the special with no credits Something fishy felled off during its run the gore the blood of all things They figured this was gonna be a Halloween thing But with Thanksgiving and now a Christmas special things seem off-putting But it didn't seem to bother most people now the next few episodes were all festive themed as mentioned by Mortimer himself As a teaser for the next episode this may include a plug some lights and a very disturbing inflatable decoration


Right. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to this month's non-farm payrolls webinar on the 8th of December 2023, this last webinar of the year. What a year it's been. In fact, what a week it's been. We've seen new record highs for the DAX. We've seen a significant shift since the last payrolls report in yields and interest rate expectations for 2024. We've transitioned from higher for longer to a belief mistaken or otherwise that we will see a significant amount of interest rate cuts over the course of the next 12 months. So let's dig into that a little bit. Obviously, today's payrolls report is important in the context of the narrative that the Fed will be cutting next year. And really, I think it's more about the timing than anything else. Now, obviously, earlier this month, in fact, it was the end of last week that I think Fed Chair Jay Powell pushed back against the idea of rate cuts. His comments that the prospect of more hikes was still a possibility. But the markets essentially weren't buying what he was selling. And I think to give an idea of what that looks like, you just have to look at the US 10 year yield over the course of the past few days. Now, we have seen moves like this in the past. We saw them at the end of 2022. And as we headed into 2023, we saw a further move down. That was the banking crisis, the US banking crisis. But since then, we yields rallied strongly before peaking again, all the way back in October. And then since October, we've come down quite significantly. I think the difference between now and a year ago is the fact that inflation is an awful lot lower now. And the numbers that we've seen, not only in the US, but also in the European Union, have shown that actually we're more at risk of deflation than we are inflation. Yes, inflation could remain sticky. And certainly it's stickier here in the UK than pretty much anywhere else. And the yield curve in the US is still screaming a recession. So the narrative now, let's have a quick look at the German two year as well. I mean, look at the German two year since the end of last month. I mean, that's seen a big, big fall, a fall of nearly 50 basis points in the last couple of weeks. And a large part of that is largely driven by the fact that German inflation has really slowed quite sharply. So I think while today's payrolls report is enormously important, unless we get a number that really deviates from the consensus, then unlike it's not unlikely to change the narrative when the Fed meets next Wednesday, because the decision the Fed has to make next Wednesday is how to dial back all that exuberance that's being reflected in the bond markets in terms of the fall in yields. And try and convince the markets that they're getting ahead of themselves. And for that, we need to look at what the US central bank's estimates for 2024 dots are concerned. Now, the last time they moved the dots on 2024, they moved them to 5.1%. So essentially Fed policymakers were predicting that by the end of 2024, the Fed funds rate would be around about 5.1% midpoint. So essentially only 25 basis points below where it is now. Now the market is pricing in 100 basis points of rate cuts. So they're pricing 4.1%. So how does the Fed push back against that? Today's payrolls report could dial into that, particularly if we get a strong number and the consensus at the moment between the estimates for non-farm payrolls is anywhere between 130,000, which Deutsche Bank are predicting, and 250,000, which Goldman Sachs is predicting. So that's quite a big spread. You could probably drive a bus through it. That being said, I have to say it's probably going to be anywhere in between in the middle of that. The consensus is anywhere between 180 and 185. That's going to be a slight improvement on the 150 that we saw last month, which was the lowest number this year for non-farm payrolls and the first time that we've missed consensus expectations to the downside on U.S. payrolls. Looking at the numbers that we've seen this week in terms of weekly jobless claims, ADP, as well as job openings, there is a slowing down in the U.S. labor market, particularly when you look at the last three months of ADP, where we've been trending at just above 100,000. Jobs grow slow to 106 in November, and we also saw that the previous month was also revised lower ever so slightly. Whereas if you look at the non-farms, we surged by 297,000 in September before slowing to 150,000 in October. The unemployment rate is steady at 3.9%, participation rate steady at 6.27%, 62.7%, and wages is still trending at 4%. The Fed's not going to be in any rush to cut rates anytime soon. I think the market is getting ahead of itself. You look at the data in isolation. We also have US CPI out next week as well. That is expected to slow to 3.1% in November, with core prices remaining steady at 4%. That's quite a bit higher than the EU inflation number, which came in at 2.4%. All these central banks of inflation target at 2%, and we've seen a significant shift from ECB officials over the course of the past couple of weeks, saying that they're pretty much done when it comes to rate hikes. That's not something that you've heard from the Fed, and it's not something that you've heard from the Bank of England. I think the ECB is probably going to be the first central bank to cut rates, and that could come as soon as the end of Q1 and the beginning of Q2. We're talking March, April. ECB officials were all keen to push back on that, but look at the PPI numbers in Europe. Look at the CPI numbers in Europe. Those numbers are slowing really sharply. Now, it is absolutely true. Inflation doesn't slow in a straight line, and we could see a rebound. But the economic numbers are diabolical. PMIs in the mid to low 40s. The French economy contracted by 0.1% in Q3. There is an awful lot of what I would call economic, what's the word I'm looking for, lethargy within the Euro area, and it's going to be very, very difficult to turn that around. Essentially, this is where we are when it comes to the economy in Europe, the economy in China. This week's China data was disappointing as well. The US economy is probably the best of a bad bunch. It's unlikely, I think, that today's payrolls numbers will paint a significantly different picture to what we've been seeing over the course of the past few months. A fairly resilient economy, jobless claims around about $210,000, and a payrolls number anywhere between $150,000 and $200,000. If we get somewhere, if we get something anywhere in between $150,000 and $200,000, I think the markets will be happy with that. If we get $250,000, that's probably going to be dollar positive, and it could cause yields to tick higher. It could actually prompt a little bit of a mixed reaction in stock markets, because ultimately, it could delay the prospect of Fed rate cuts. On the other hand, a really poor number, while say anything below $100,000, could actually elicit a negative reaction in stock markets, because that would signal a hard landing for the US economy. We're in a bit of a sweet spot at the moment, and anything in and around that is going to make it very, very difficult, I think, to signal what's going on with respect to where markets are going anytime soon. If we look at, say, for example, the S&P, over the last few days, we've pretty much gone nowhere. We found support in and around $4,530,000. We look at the series of lows all the way through there. They're pretty much uniform when it comes to the lows, and the peaks $4,600. We're in a range trade, so I'd be surprised if we push much above the highs that we've seen earlier this month in the event of a number that's in any way supportive or within the guidelines of being in consensus. Similarly, comes to the NASDAQ as well. I think an awful lot of people, if they haven't made their money already this year, will be content to let sleeping dogs lie, if you like, and essentially not drive the market too far in one direction or the other. NASDAQ is slightly more yield sensitive. Just being asked, if it's under $100,000, the narrative of rate cuts wouldn't boost the market higher. You see, that's a tricky one. I've just been asked a question. If the payroll is under $100,000, the narrative of rate cuts wouldn't boost the market higher. No, it wouldn't, not necessarily, because that would signal that the economy is heading for a hard landing, and consequently, company profits might get hit as a result of that. Given the fact that we're at the end of the year, no one is going to make large decisions coming as we are towards a part of the year where liquidity starts to dry up. You could see yields come lower, and that would probably be the right reaction for the bond market, but I'm not 100% sure it would be positive for stock markets. If we get a number, let's say, for example, $130,000 or $140,000, that would be just about in the sweet spot where you've still got a little bit of what I would call optionality when it comes to the numbers going either way as we head into 2024. Trying to finesse that is very, very difficult when it comes to what might happen next year. I think it's unlikely we'll get a weak payroll's number because all the strikes have finished, but also you get an awful lot of temporary hiring take place in the lead up to Thanksgiving and the Christmas period, which helps to support the headline jobs numbers. That's why Goldman is thinking that we're probably going to get a number of around about plus 200. Having said that, Deutsche Bank's on the other side of that, and they're essentially saying $130,000. But whichever way you go, I would be very surprised if we hit a number below $100,000 and if we do, there's likely to be one-off factors at play if that does happen. Sometimes markets react to the headline number and then they'll dig into the details and suddenly find that actually that number could get revised away. That's why it's always very, very important to look at the revisions as well as the headline number as well. I think the main focus at the moment will be on wages and wages are still trending at 4%. Job vacancies are still at $8.7 million and that's still well above the levels they were pre-pandemic. If we do get a very bad number, I would suggest it's probably going to be a one-off when set against everything else. That's not to say that you won't get a knee-jerk move on the back of that. Quick look at the other indexes before we get into the guts of it. Dax is broken above previous record highs, continues to push higher. As I say, that's moving higher on the basis of potential ECB rate cuts coming as early as the end of Q1, the beginning of Q2. That narrative could shift when the ECB meets next week or Madam Lagarde will try and shift it. I don't think anyone could conceivably buy it given how bad the data is. If we look at the recent moves in Eurodollar, we can see that we've seen a significant rebound, a pullback rather from the highs that we saw at the end of November, finding a little bit of support around about $107.50. Could we drop a little bit lower possibly, but I would expect us to continue to see a little bit of range trading, but with a slightly negative bias simply on the basis of the fact that the ECB is likely to cut first. Big mover this week was Dolly N. This has been an absolute widowmaker of a trade. This week over the past two days, gone from $147 down to around about $141. What's holding it up at the moment is the 200-day moving average. Look at these long shadows on the candles. I would not be thinking of getting aggressively short Dolly N at this point in time because we're above this key 200-day moving average support, and that is likely to act as a little bit of a short-term base given the fact that it acted as support back here as well. It feels a little bit overextended as well. The reason Dolly N dropped as much as it did was because there was this perception by the Bank of Japan, or this indication by the Bank of Japan, they might look to tighten policy or pull rates out of negative territory over the course of the next few months. Now, they could well do that, but why would they tighten policy at the exact same time when Japanese GDP actually contracted by more than expected in numbers released earlier today? Minus 0.7. They were expecting minus 0.5. Why would you tighten monetary policy against that backdrop? I think markets are slightly overreacting to that slight change of narrative that could squeeze the dollar back to $145, $146. I still think Dolly N can go lower, but on the basis that potentially the U.S. at some point, U.S. economic data will slow in January, February, March, April next year, and rate cut expectations could start to shift. But one piece of GDP data out of Japan, it could get revised away. The economy could improve. I'm not sure. I think the markets got slightly ahead of itself with the 19th of December Bank of Japan meeting will no more then or whether or not the ECB, the Bank of Japan is just trying to fly a kite to see whether or not what the market reaction is in terms of positioning on Dolly N. I think the market was caught slightly offside on those particular numbers. That's Dolly N. I think if we do get a weakening in the dollar, those long shadows suggest that there is a significant amount of buying interest just above the 200-day moving average. That's not to say that we can't go down there between 144 and 142.5 on 41 on a particularly weak payrolls number. We can, but heading into the weekend, I think there's a decent chance that over the course of the next few days, any further tests of this level could see a bit of a modest rebound and a push back towards 144, 145, 146. Time will tell on that particular trade and we've still got around about 10 days to go before the Bank of Japan rate meeting. So quick look at gold. Gold's an interesting one. We're just counting down to the numbers now. So I'm just quickly looking at these here. We've got 30 seconds. That looks a little bit bearish to me. We made a record high and we closed on the lows of the day. So we could actually see gold consolidate at these sorts of levels. So let's quickly snap to the numbers. I will be quiet just for a little bit while I wait for the numbers to hit the tape. I've got eight seconds to go, counting down to the payrolls numbers. 3.7 unemployment rate drops 199. So it's pretty much in the ballpark there. I wouldn't expect a significantly reaction to that. No revisions. 3.7 participation rates gone up ever so slightly to 62.8. So unemployment's fallen. And no wage data yet. Oh, it's come out 4%. Revised down to 4% for the previous month. So again pretty much in line. 199.182. So it's pretty much in the window of Azure and we'll move on to the Federal Reserve next week. In terms, so basically what it does is it keeps the current narrative alive of lower yields. The possibility that we'll get rate cuts next week. Not rate cuts next week. What am I talking about rate cuts next year? The big question is the market's pricing in for June. Will they start pulling them into April or May? On the basis that those numbers no, it keeps pricing exactly where it should be when it comes to the actual pricing of US yields. And let's have a quick look at that. I'm just going to pull that in. I'm going to change that to a US two year yield and see what the bond market reaction to those particular numbers is. So slightly higher. So slightly it's 10 basis points higher. Let's look at the actual reaction on the day. So a little bit of spike in yields. I'm not sure that's really warranted, if I'm honest. But some of the moves that we've seen in yields over the course of the past few weeks and months, that's pretty much part of the course. Big swings in US yields as positioning goes one way and then the other. I think it's probably strong enough because of the drop in the unemployment rate to be dollar positive from 3.9 to 3.7 and the rise in the participation rate. So the Fed swaps are pricing in less easing in 2024 based on the unemployment rate falling to 3.7% and the participation rate rising to 62.8. Nothing wrong with the US labor market, which is why you're seeing the reaction in the bond markets that you're currently seeing at the moment. Let's look at what the S&P is doing. Potentially probably a little bit of a softness there. Yeah, you would expect that. So a little bit of softness in the stock market. But again, go back to what we were talking about. Nice series of lows all the way through here. I would expect if we do drop back down to those lows for those levels to hold. But I think what it does do is it makes Powell's job a little bit easier next week when the Fed meets to discuss monetary policy. I think the Fed's biggest problem is sometimes they talk too much and that Waller's comments saying that monetary policy was currently well-positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to target was probably a sensible thing to say. But when he went on to say if disinflation starts to become a concern they could cut rates, it would probably have been better if he hadn't said anything at all there. But that's essentially where we are. Does anyone have any questions on anything that I haven't already covered in the lead up to the numbers? So I was talking about gold. Obviously we saw record highs on Monday since then we've closed lower. That would appear to suggest that we are probably going to see a retest of $2,000. This is a classic bull trap. This is we break higher, make new record highs. But the key for me was where was gold going to close? And we actually closed below the open of the previous day. That is short-term bearish and that would suggest to me we are not going to see new record highs this year. We're probably going to see a bit of a consolidation come back down to $2,000, even perhaps retest these lows through here. If we draw a quick trend line in through those levels there, it's probably not particularly useful that line because it looks as if it's already broken. But in the context of the overall move, we go back a little bit further and take this line here. We're still in the uptrend that we've been in since March 2023. And if we look at these series of highs through here, there is certainly scope for us to come back to the 50 in the 200 day moving average on any correction lower. So the U.S. economy is still in fairly decent shape. We look at the small caps and we can see there's a decent area of resistance in and around this 1.890 area. And actually if you look at the U.S. economy as a whole or the U.S. stock market as a whole, the small cap index is pretty much unchanged, slightly higher on the year, but nothing to right home about, a bit like the FTSE 100 actually, small up on the year, but nothing to right home about. So thoughts on Kiwi. Just been asked about Kiwi. Is RBNZ cool? They won't cut till 2025? A bluff in your opinion? Yeah, it is. What they've done is they want to obviously maintain the higher for longer narrative that had convinced markets that central banks wouldn't be cutting aggressively in 2024. The inflation numbers since then have really undermined that argument. And in terms of rate cuts, I think the ECB will be first. The Bank of England, the Bank of England is tougher. And let me let me try and articulate my feelings about the Bank of England. In November, UPIL, Chief Economist, talked about a table-mounting approach to rate policy. So essentially higher for longer. And let's not forget, there's still three MPC members, Monetary Policy Committee members on the Bank of England committee, who voted for three rate hikes at the last meeting. Granted, they're all external members. Katherine Mann, Jonathan Haskell, and Megan Green. But I don't see how the Bank of England can cut when you still got three setters asking for more rate hikes. Furthermore, core prices, core CPI in the UK is 5.7%. It's much higher. It's around about one and a half percent higher than it is in Europe. Headline inflation is at a more manageable level of 4.6%, but that's still over double the Bank of England's inflation target. And services inflation is trending at around about 6.6%. So yeah, the US, the UK, the UK economy is struggling a little bit. And that's not surprising. But it's going to be very difficult for the Bank of England to justify cutting rates when you've got wage inflation at 7.9, services inflation at 6.6, and headline CPI at 4.6. So we do get the latest November numbers for UK inflation the week before Christmas. So I'll be interested to see whether or not we see a further slowdown from the numbers that we saw in October. But against that backdrop, I don't see there's any way the Bank of England can cut rates. Whereas the ECB can because headline inflation is 2.4, not 4.6. So I think the Bank of England will be longer. When they do start cutting, it could be quicker. But I just can't see them being first out the traps when it comes to rate cuts, whereas I can see it with respect to the ECB. Going back to, quickly going back to small caps, 2000 decent resistance at 1.890. Yes, we're in a nice little uptrend. But I would expect this range to continue to be the way of things for the Russell, the small cap. Very much a range trade, I think, on that particular one, Alan. So hopefully that answers your question. Coming back to you, Mustafa. Bank of England, sorry, Bank of England, I've covered Bank of Canada. We are starting to see a little bit of a slowdown in employment growth in Canada. So there is a good chance that the Bank of Canada will cut before the Fed. In fact, I'd say it's quite likely. As for the RBNZ, it's going to be very difficult, I think. I have to see what they say at their next rate meeting next year. But for me, I think their tweak to guidance did the job. But the bigger question is whether or not the markets believe them. Certainly, in terms of the way the Kiwis behaved over the course of the past few days, it has worked. It has pushed the currency higher. But if we look at this here, it's not dissimilar to the way the Aussies have been trading over the course of the since the start of the year, albeit we haven't been able to get back to that trend line from the highs. But overall, I think if you've got weak China and you've got weak Asia, I think Kiwi will struggle to get back to the levels that it was in the middle of the summer. So I'm very much of the opinion that the Kiwi is probably at some point a cellular rally type trade. So hopefully that answers your questions on central banks' rate policy. Does anyone else have any questions that they'd like to ask me on anything that I actually haven't covered yet? Because we've got time. We've got another five minutes. More than happy to answer your questions. As I say, a quick reminder that if you want to preview the week ahead, it's on the news and analysis section of the website where you click on there. And that takes you through the various key points for next week. Obviously, we've got wages data next week as well. Average earnings are expected to slow again for the three months to October down from 7.9 to 7.3. I'll be surprised if that's slow. And obviously, we also have UK GDP for October. This is the monthly number. This is not the quarter on quarter number. So yeah, I mean, that's, that's what we've got to look forward to. And then the week after we've got the Bank of Japan, that's the big thing that's going to be a very important decision given the declines we've seen in dollar yen. And we've obviously also got UK headline inflation that week as well, probably I think on either the same day or the Wednesday. So is the DAX overbought? It doesn't really matter whether it's overbought or not. It can continue to go higher even when it's overbought. It's been overbought since here, Allen. So it was overbought there and it's continued to be overbought and it's gone from 15,200 to 16,600. So that's, that's neither here nor there. It can be overbought for months and do another 100 or 200 points. So when you're looking at oscillators, please, please don't look at oscillators for timings in terms of when to sell and when to buy. Look at the price action and the price action on this. Yes, it has come a long way in a short space of time. Doesn't mean that it can't go higher. Look what it did back here in October 2022 and look where we are now. You know, it was overbought all the way through there and it continued to go higher. It's the direction of the price action that is the most important component. RSI is close to CAS6. I ignore them unless I'm looking to trade with the trend. But when they're overbought and the market's moving higher, don't use them. Ignore them. Now, I would say don't use them. Just have them there, but just push what they're telling you to one side because to slightly paraphrase Keynes, the market can remain overbought for longer than you can remain solvent. So a word of warning. Be very careful about when you use oscillators because they can cost you an awful lot of money. Any other questions, ladies and gents? Okay. Well, if that's it, I'd like to thank you all for your company this year. It's been an absolute pleasure. Always enjoy answering your questions. We'll continue to do these. I'd be grateful if you could leave some feedback when you get the feedback email on Monday because it helps me to basically decide what to discuss on these. I don't want this to be just about payrolls. I also want it to be a general chat about what the markets are doing, what they're likely to do, and essentially talk about the charts in general and try to try and have a general discussion with you guys on a fairly regular basis because it's basically all about your trading decisions, not mine. So as I say, that's it for this year for non-farm payrolls webinars. If I don't speak to you before, I'd like to wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year and until the 5th of January when we get the December payrolls report. So thank you very much for all your company and speak to you all in just over or just under a month's time.


Hey, this is Brett and this 2018 GMC Sierra 2500 Crew Cab Short Box Denali is stock number 13449Z. I am here at Summit Automotive in Fond du Lac, Wisconsin, you're new and used heavy-duty truck headquarters. This 2018 GMC Sierra 2500 has the 6.6 liter Duramax diesel engine, it's the L5P engine which puts out 445 horsepower and it's paired up with the Allison 6-speed heavy-duty transmission. This truck has been fully safety and inspected by our service shop, it has a fresh oil and filter change, all the fluids have been checked and topped off and it is 100% ready to go. Onyx Black is the color and I shoot all my videos in 4K so if you have HD capabilities on your computer, tablet, or smartphone, turn them on right now because it is your best way to check out the quality, condition, options, and cleanliness of the vehicle before seen in person. As you go down the driver's side here you can see just how nice that box is, I didn't see any dents or dings on there, paint is very shiny and glass-like. Driver's side doors and cab are in fantastic condition as well and the front fender is in nice shape too. If you like the video you can subscribe to my YouTube channel which is youtube.com slash Summit Auto, click the bell notifications and you'll get updates on the videos I do each and every day of our amazing inventory here at Summit Auto. This one comes with the 20-inch chromed alloy wheels and it has BF Goodrich all-terrain TA KO2 tires. These are LT26560R20s and they have right around half the tread left on them, frame and underbody looks pretty good. It does have the Rancho shocks part of the Z71 off-road suspension package. This one does have the HID headlamps and the LED running lights as well as the factory fog lights. We'll turn all those on at the end of the video so you can see how nice and bright they all are and that only takes a couple minutes so stick around for that. You get the chrome-trimmed grille, the fully functional cobalt induction hood, I'll show you how that works as well, the insini dents or dings on the hood and it does come with the cab lights up top. Passengers side front fender, very nice too and the passengers side wheel and the front is in pretty nice condition as well and insini major scuffs on there. As you go down this side of this 2018 GMC Sierra take note of how reflective and mirror like that paint is, how clean the body is. I take these HD videos so if you are far away or even if you're close by you just cannot make the trip down but you're still interested in purchasing the vehicle. You can see the truck, hear the truck and have confidence in the vehicle that you're looking at before you even get here so when you do get here there's absolutely no surprises and you can make a smart and informed buying decision from wherever you're at. If this video helps you make that buying decision let your salesmen know that you saw the video that it was helpful and that Brett sent you. Back tires have just as much tread as the front tires and the frame and underbody is in really nice condition as all the remaining factory exhaust and it looks pretty good all the way underneath. Lower rockers and cab corners are in nice shape and it does come with the factory chrome step bars. Coming around to the back of the vehicle you get the rear bumper steps. Rear bumper is in great condition, no dents or dings in there, it does have the backup parking sensors, full towing package which includes a receiver hitch four pin and seven pin wiring and the tailgate is in very nice condition as well. This one also comes with a Truxedo low pro roll up tonneau cover, same tonneau cover I have on my truck, I really like it. The spray and bed liner does come with a gooseneck hitch, you also get LED bed lights back here and that spray and liner goes on to the tailgate which is really nice. It has the shock down assist tailgate as well as the easy lift assist tailgate. For full disclosure this back wheel, about the same condition as the rest. And that is a B&W gooseneck hitch. This one comes with the telescopic till mirrors built in directional signals, LED side lights, they telescope out, they also fold in like so. Inside the Denali package gives you the black leather bucket seats in the front, no rips or tears on those seats, they are in fantastic condition. You get the Denali stitched into the headrest and the seats are in fantastic shape. Both of these front seats are heated and cooled, you get a nice set of all weather floor mats, tilt, telescopic steering wheel, power or auto headlamps turned out four wheel drive in your factory brake controller, power windows locks and mirrors and memory driver seat as well as the Bose sound, get the nice wood grain trim on there and these mirrors do power fold in. I always like showing both sides so that you know that both sides are working properly.  Inside and bottoms of the doors all look really good, we'll hop inside, check out the miles, the radio and everything that this truck has to offer on the interior. You can see that this one has 75,000, 17 miles, you do get a digital speedometer, instrument cluster is very nice and clean, comes with the heated leather wrap steering wheel, Bluetooth and information center controls on the right, cruise controls, forward collision warning controls and heated steering wheel controls on the left, you get the Allyson heavy duty six speed automatic transmission with the optional tap shift, this one has the GMC IntelliLink radio, you get the factory navigation system there, there's Highway 41 so you can see that is working nicely, you also get AM, FM and Sirius XM radio capabilities, CD player and you also have a projection manager, you can project your cell phone to the screen via Android Auto or Apple CarPlay. This is also where your backup camera shows up, you get your heated and cooled seat buttons, dual climate controls, power pedal stability control, that's for your cargo lamps, that's also for your LED bed lights and your LED side lights on the mirrors, parking sensors, lane departure warning, downhill assist control and your factory exhaust break, you get two USBs, two 12 volt power points and 110 volt, 150 watt plug-in, cup holders right there, you also have the wireless cell phone charge pad and the passenger side, floor mat and seat are in excellent condition as well and in senior rips or tears on there, once again smells very clean inside this truck and you do get the power sunroof right there, map lights, home link buttons and sunroof and power slide and rear window controls on start SOS buttons in the mirror, we'll start it up and take a look under the hood, starts right up, no check engine lights or anything like that. Didn't want to show you the emission sticker and tire and loading information sticker, well not the emission, the VIN sticker, there are those LED side lights, they are very nice and bright, I would personally like to thank you for checking out the video today and hopefully from this HD video, you've been able to verify the quality condition options and of course cleanliness of this truck, all the way around inside out does have this HID headlamps, under the hood we have the 6.6 liter Duramax diesel engine, L5P, 445 horsepower engine base, very clean, runs very smooth, once again this truck has been fully safe and inspected by our service shop as a fresh oil and filter change, all the fluids have been checked and topped off, this truck is 100% ready to go, there's the emission sticker so that color hood, the air comes in the top, goes down to the side right into the air cleaner there and I would highly recommend this truck from a quality and condition standpoint and to see more pictures of this truck or one of other 550 new and used cars, trucks, SCVs, minivans, Wranglers, half tons, three quarter tons, one tons, you name it we got to go to that website right there is summitauto.com, full pictures and descriptions of every single vehicle from two locations all at summitauto.com and if you'd like to check out more HD videos you can go to youtube.com slash summitauto.com auto, remember to like, subscribe and share on this video and all the videos that you see there click the bell notifications you'll get updates on the videos I do each and every day here at Summit Automotive, in fact in a second you'll see links to subscribe to my YouTube channel on the upper left, a link to more GMC Sierra 2500 truck videos are done in the upper right, a link to this vehicle on our website and a lower left and a link to one of our latest YouTube videos in the lower right, quick those check us out, we're super excited to help you this Ultra Clean 2018 GMC Sierra 2500 Crew Cab Short Box Denali and Onyx Black Clear Coat. Thanks again for checking out the video, remember to like, subscribe and share on the YouTube channel, I really appreciate it. Thanks again.


So I am back with some brand new Cyberpunk gameplay which is from the latest Night City Wire special episode demonstrating the game and how it will look on the Xbox One X and the Xbox Series X. How's it going guys? My name's DPJ and if you enjoyed the video leaving a like really helps out and if you like what you're seeing and want to see more be sure to subscribe. Okay so the gameplay has a little context but I do believe it's towards the start of the game. Holly Benny who presented this special episode of Night City Wire, the stream, did state the footage had been edited so we can basically expect more within the proper game within these scenes. But yeah guys enjoy this amazing footage, I will state this was recorded in 1080p but even still it looks amazing. Also a spoiler warning just in case you want to play this game and go into the release blind obviously this is gameplay footage brand new gameplay footage so it might just spoil something for you. So guys enjoy the gameplay, press that like button if you're doing hopefully I will see you on that next one. The gameplay footage starts with a questline called automatic love where V is attempting to hunt down a nipping person via any means necessary. Now in the interests of time and to avoid spoilers we have edited this footage but it does mean that you'll still have plenty to discover when you play it for yourself on December 10th. The gameplay will be switching between Xbox One X and Xbox Series X and you can check in the corner to see which one you're looking at. Brain dance chick is hiding something no coincidence we already saw two tiger claws they must control the building. You think Judy's lying why? Little something called intuition V ever heard of it.   You better keep this shortened sweet. Two brainwashed sex zombies in a single day is too much even for me. I think something might have gone wrong here. Not really sure uh don't have your details sorry no idea what I'm supposed to do. Yeah I have that bike I know it. Well I ain't so loud in here close the door on the way out would you? Or as you can see I'm very busy. Can you just the cutest thing if you're looking for a release I just might be your man.  Yo you hear what this pitch said to me? I'd say it again but what for your little skull sponge can't possibly get its gray cells around it. I'm more than a chop doc. See I know what people truly want to be flattered, praised, padded to feel like like they deserve it. Of course I can't remember each and everyone even if it's a specimen as exquisite as you.


All right, welcome back to Cycler's YouTube channel. We have ourselves the DRI. And I'll let you know what that means. It means there are certain behaviors. I don't know when I'm going Irish now. Anyway, certain behaviors that are incompatible, differential reinforcement of incompatible behaviors. For instance, I've had Kettos where they have a stimulatory response or some type of tantrum, if you will, where they're doing something like this and they can't do anything else and they can't get stuck or they get stuck in this pattern and they have TAs that prompt them to go and it's completely incompatible. Now they have to keep their hands closed and you're going to reinforce them for keeping their hands closed because they're no longer doing this and making a big scene in the mall. DRI.