Thank you, Quentin. Good morning everyone. It is a real pleasure to be here back in Australia on a lovely winter's day which puts to shame the summer days that we're suffering in London at the moment and swap this weather anytime. It is indeed the 61st edition of our annual review of World Energy and each year what we try and do is look back at the past year's data so we're looking at 2011 and trying to tease out the main stories from that year and what does it tell us about long term trends and the way the markets operate. The main thing for this year is really all around the disruptions that we saw in 2011 and how the global energy system coped with those disruptions and what lessons, if any, we can draw from the adjustment. The lasting memories of 2011 are likely to be of human hope and tragedy of courage and frailty in the face of natural disaster and political upheaval. The World of Energy, which is the focus of this review, those events translated into large and unpredictable disruptions in supply and demand. Quantifying the disruptions is where we're going to start. Political unrest and violence caused loss of oil supply and gas production in parts of the Arab world. The loss of Libyan oil exports alone is at 1.2 million barrels a day disruption. If you add in the outages of gas from Libya and oil supply from elsewhere in the Arab world, that was a total decline in excess of 72 million tonnes of oil equivalent and that's roughly 11% of European Union oil consumption, for example. It's a large number. Of course in Japan, with the tragic events surrounding the earthquake and tsunami, we had the shutdown of Fukushima, followed soon after by eventually the shutdown of all the Japanese nuclear reactors. There was also coal damage to coal-fired power generation capacity in Japan and German nuclear reactors were shut down in response. If you add all of that up together, that's the loss of 43 million tonnes of oil equivalent of energy. Roughly a third of Asia's nuclear output or 7% of world nuclear output. So large shocks to the system. In addition, in 2011, we also saw for the first time ever an annual average oil price above $100 a barrel, the first release of strategic petroleum reserves since 2005, the largest increase in OPEC production since 2008, an exceptional swing in European weather from the relatively cold year to the end year and here in Australia, of course, huge floods which had a big impact on coal production. So it was anything but a boring year in 2011. And yet, when you look at the aggregate data, what was happening to total energy consumption in the world, nothing out of the ordinary appears. It appears to be a smooth year, everything on trend. GDP and energy consumption both grew in 2011 at or about their 10-year average growth rate. GDP 3.7%, slightly faster than primary energy consumption growth 2.5%, that gives you an improvement in energy intensity, an amount of energy per unit of GDP of 1.1%, that's all in line with long-run 10-year trends. And as we'll see, other trends were also in place. The evolution of fuel shares, for example, was brought in line with long-term trends with the obvious exception of nuclear power. The first place where we really see an indication that there was something else going on is in prices. We had large increases in prices across most fuels and most geographies. Oil prices measured by dates have burnt up 40% to $111 per barrel. That's a record in nominal money of the day terms. If you want real inflation and adjusted prices, you have to go all the way back to 1864 to find a higher price. Of course, in 1864, that's just a few people swapping a few barrels in a hotel in Pennsylvania because it doesn't really count. So very high prices for oil. For coal, if you add together the coal market prices that we've published in the review, they increased by 24%, it gets to increase in Europe. Gas prices in the US down. Gas prices down in the US, but elsewhere outside of the US, gas prices rose. Many of those gas prices, of course, are due to oil prices, so they naturally went up with oil prices, and spot prices rose as well. So pretty much everything outside of the US was increasing. Supply disruptions are one plausible explanation for what was going on. The other usual suspect is the economy. Something happening in economic growth. When we look at the economic data, there's nothing much there to indicate an abnormal year in terms of pressure on energy demand and prices. Global economy grew by 3.7% in purchasing power power returns, 2.7% in market exchange rates, lower than 2010, but very much in line with long-run and 10-year averages. As is now customary, non-OECDs have developed in the economy's outpaced OECD growth. They contributed more than three quarters of the growth in the global economy last year, but for both camps, OECD and non-OECD, there's pretty much on trend in terms of economic growth. There was, of course, volatility and disparities within each of those camps, but particularly in the OECD in 2011. For Japan, the pathway, of course, determined by the earthquake in tsunami, growth in the US into tentative recovery mode. Europe, the way we phrase it, is still coping with unresolved issues in the unified currency area, and it's still here. Both those developments are still with us. The world is going through an adjustment to a post-menstrual crisis world, with slightly lower growth rates. We're starting to see repercussions about even in places like China and India now, but that's really an issue for 2012, wasn't an issue for 2011. When you're adding a primary energy growth, again, nothing out of the ordinary is at the annual level. The big picture is no extraordinary impact from the economy on an energy demand, composition of fuels, in line with long-term trends. Really, to start seeing a deviation from trend, you have to split out non-OECD and OECD. So the non-OECD countries, energy consumption growth 5.3%, bang on line with the 10-year average growth rate. China, of course, growing very rapidly, 8.8% increase in energy consumption there. That's equivalent to adding the entire annual consumption of energy of the UK, or if you prefer one and a half Australia's, just one year's growth in China. Every year we see China passing another milestone. In 2011, China overtook the US to become the world's largest power producer. It was power generator in the world. So that's all as expected on trend for the non-OECD. OECD, in contrast, there was a decline in energy consumption of not 1.8%, despite average GDP growth. This is now the third and the last four years where we've seen a decline in energy consumption in the OECD. What happened in 2011? We've already had three reasons why energy consumption declined. First of all, the price increase, high prices, particularly high oil prices. For the OECD, there's relatively little subsidisation of fuel prices, so an increase in international prices feeds directly through to consumer prices and consumers' response. And we've certainly seen that in the OECD. In the US, for example, energy consumption down 0.4% in 2011, driven by oil and oil is where we've seen the largest increase in prices. The second reason for the decline for Kashima, so Japan, the world's third largest economy, energy consumption there, declined by 5%. It hasn't noticed all the impact. Finally, third reason, Europe experienced a significant shift in the weather from a cold year to a warm year, almost a record switch in the heating degree days, and that was the key reason behind a 3.1% decline in European energy consumption. These energy dislocations in the OECD give us another indication of how the markets cope with the disruptions. Just to summarise in a nutshell, three major adjustments took place. First of all, an increase in oil supplies dropped set the Libyan outage, most notably from Saudi Arabia. Together with flexibility in trading and refining, allowed the heavier Saudi crews to replace the lost Libyan barrels. Secondly, there was a diversion of natural gas which had been heading to Europe towards Asia to meet the increased demand for gas, particularly in Japan. Finally, there was a release of coal from the Americas, facilitated by the availability of cheap gas, and we'll talk more about this later, which helped gas to replace gas in Europe. So coal was released from the Americas, came to Europe and that allowed gas to be diverted to Asia. I'll tell you in more detail as we go fuel by fuel. Starting with oil. Oil markets experienced oil turbulence in 2011, and still have this year, in 2012. Oil prices rose substantially. The date of pregnancy set up 40% to $111 a barrel, record in money in the day terms. Prices began the year around $90 a barrel, and then rose very sharply to about $127 a barrel following the loss of Libyan supplies. Modulated thereafter, as we had a combination of the economy weakening, oil demand growth weakening, OECD nations released 35 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, and OPEC producers with a bit of a lag eventually started to replace those lots of Libyan barrels. Earlier this year, of course in 2012, we had a price spike around the stand-up with a round on nuclear. That, of course, concerns about supply disruption. Those fears seem to have been calm when they come down, but for now they're out of the way. We're worrying more at the moment about the state of the global economy, so at the moment the oil prices back down around $90 and it tends to go up and down according to people's sentiment about the global economy. Second key development in oil markets was the massive $16 gap that opened up between two of the key market prices, Brent and WTI, West Texas and the media. These are very similar great qualities of crude and they normally track each other very closely. Big gap opened up between them and that was due to infrastructure constraints in the U.S. WTI, West Texas and the media is in effect the inland U.S. price. A lot of suppliers coming on available in that area couldn't get to the coast, and more about pipeline capacity and therefore disconnect between that price and the sea-bond price, which is Brent. We'll hear more about that later. The main factor driving prices up last year was that decline in Libyan supply, $1.2 million a day. That was the largest decline in the country's oil output we've seen for 20 years since the aftermath of the Soviet Union. It was a significant event. Several other countries in the Middle East and North Africa also experienced losses, which are still there. When you look at the aggregate data you don't see those losses. The increase in the oil production is $1.2 million a day. Virtually all the increase came from OPEC, which includes Libya. Reason of course is a massive increase in oil production from the other OPEC producers. They increased output 2.5 million miles a day. Eventually meeting not only the loss of Libyan crew but also providing for the growth in oil production. Saudi Arabia alone increased production by $1.2 million a day for a record level, $11.2 million a day. The US, Canada, Russia and Colombia offset and continued declines in mature provinces such as the North Sea, the UK and Norway in particular where they decline. Extended outages in a number of countries like Azerbaijan and biofuels were unusually flat last year in 2011 due to bad weather in Brazil which hampered ethanol production. Now notice there the increase in US supply turns up on the chart. This is a very important part of the oil supply story, the striking shift in US oil production. The US had the largest increase in non-OPEC oil production for the third year running and this is largely thanks for a switch in drilling activity from gas which has a low price to liquids or oil which has a high price and it's the application now of techniques that have been developed for shale gas to oil shale liquids and that's proven extremely productive. I'm not sure you can quite see this small paint here but the Tentas in North Dakota that shale plays, that shale liquids. Very strong growth and it's continuing this year. Combined with rising supply from Canada and Alberta this was the surge in production which meant there was too much oil in the inland areas of the US and created that disconnect with rent. There's an important lesson behind all these developments. Canada and the US both have very open and competitive investment in property regimes and it plays out and you see that in the switch between gas drilling and oil drilling, that happens very quickly in the short term and the long term counterpart is very rapid developments of new technology, innovation and deployment of that technology and it's no accident when you see all this supply growth in deployment of new technologies happening in North America. On consumption, oil consumption growth is weak in 2011. Global oil consumption is up just to 0.7% about half a 10 year average rate of growth and for the 12th year in a row oil share in both energy fell. On the surface, oil consumption data appears to mimic what's going on with OECD and non-OECD energy demand but for oil, we're quite confident now to say oil is in structural decline in the OECD. Non-OECD oil consumption grew by 1.2 million barrels a day and of course there's no surprise China once again the largest contributor to that with half a million barrels a day of growth, 42% of the world's net increase in oil consumption in China. Significant gains also seen in Russia India and Saudi Arabia consumption declined in North Africa and growth was below average in the Middle East and of course that's a reflection of the Arab spring events. Also a reflection of subsidy cuts in Iran which had an impact on oil consumption then. OECD consumption continued its long term decline by 600,000 barrels a day reaching its lowest level since 1995. US and Germany recorded the largest contractions by coincidence the warm winter weather we had in Europe that reduced demand for heating oil by about 120,000 barrels a day roughly the same volume as the additional requirement for oil in Japan to help offset the loss of nuclear power just turned out to be roughly the same amount of oil. A few distinguished consumption by type of product that further illuminates the reasons behind weak consumption growth for oil the weakest portion of overall demand growth is light distribution gasoline primary gasoline is price sensitive when prices go up at the pump, people buy less and this contrasts with middle list of it diesel for example that tends to be much more closely aligned with economic activity so as economies grow more middle list of digital crime particularly you see that in the non OECD so during the recent years of high oil prices it's been middle list that have held up the demand growth in oil rather than light distribution the consumption data confirm some other important developments demand responses to high international prices are still concentrated in OECD countries where subsidies are absent but the emerging economies are becoming more price sensitive because they are reducing the degree of subsidisation about 20% of the world's oil consumption in 2011 and in countries that subsidise final consumer prices of oil products and that's down to 40% in 2008 and pretty much now the only countries that are subsidising are the oil exporters themselves and that group which accounts for less than a quarter of global oil consumption contributed two thirds of the global demand growth so if the oil exporters are subsidising where a lot of the demand growth is coming longer term price effects are becoming very visible fuel efficiency of new vehicles it's improving rapidly in all markets not just the US and Europe it's happening in China and everywhere this is driven in part by government standards things like the capway standards in the US but it is also a consumer response after several years of high prices we are seeing a real shift in consumer preferences towards more efficient vehicles of course the vehicle fleet only turns over relatively slowly this is a long term effect and we'll see this effect for many more years now in the consumption data and when we put it all together overall supply and demand we can start to tell a story of what happened to how we explained prices in 2011 and 2012 as 2011 began oil consumption was actually growing faster in production and that reflected the legacy of OPEC production cuts that have been put in place after the recession that gap widened significantly of course when we lost the Libyan oil even with a large increase in output from Saudi Arabia, other Gulf States overall OPEC output didn't exceed the pre-destruction levels and global production didn't exceed consumption until well is there almost the end of the year before production exceeding demand so that left inventories stocks well below average and supported crude prices throughout the second half of 2011 so far this year in 2012 global production has exceeded global consumption by a large margin now although we have those tensions around the nuclear stand-off and spiking the prices early this year inventories have now returned close to normal levels setting the stage for significant weekly that we've seen in prices in recent weeks so prices have now backed down below $100 about the first time since February 2011 refining global refining business continuously characterised by excess capacity and slow and throughput growth next global capacity grew by 1.4moz a day in 2011 but crude runs throughput only increased by 0.4moz a day for in fact we added 1moz a day that wasn't required in 2011 most of that growth and capacity came from Asia and mainly China there's a split here between non-OECD and OECD non-OECD crude runs are increasing OECD crude runs are generally declining the exception to that in the OECD is the US as a result of the relatively low price of west Texas intermediate the US refiners had a competitive advantage they increased their crude runs and they were exporting product the US became a net exporter of oil products in 2011 the first time certainly in our data series which goes back to 1960 and probably sometimes it's the second world war global unused capacity of refining increases is about 1moz a day in 2011 it's now 5moz a day 10moz a day higher than it was in 2005 there's simply too much refining capacity around however not everyone is suffering flexible sites with world class operations particularly in 2011 had a good chance to show what they could do as the world tried to make up for the loss of Libyan supplies destruction of Libyan crude meant that Europe lost around 800,000 barrels a day of very good quality, light, low sulfur crude oil and many exporters made up some of them the loss but most of the replacement came from the Middle East in particular with much heavier and sulfurous crude so that meant that we needed more refining in terms of good crude products fortunately there's plenty of excess refining capacity on a highly upgraded nature available in Europe so the refining system was able to cope with that switch very large volume switch with relatively little trouble and refining markets that's an indication of it wasn't causing strain on the refining system natural gas, this has been one of the areas where we've seen some of the biggest changes in energy markets in the last few years there's two key themes running through this one is the growth of unconventional gas in the US, shale gas revolution the second theme is the growth of international trade particularly of LMG we saw those two things we played out in 2011 and they both played a part in the market so that's a good response to the disruptions I start with a summary of the changes at the aggregate level gas production globally was up 3.1% like above trend growth was primarily coming from the Middle East North America and the former Soviet Union consumption was up 2.2% little bit below trend led by Asia Pacific North America and the Middle East European consumption in contrast suffered an unprecedented record for climate change of course there's no global price for natural gas, we still have to look at regional prices and those regional prices show the very wide divergence in 2011 annual average spot prices for LMG in Asia increased by 82% $14.00 per mnv to you driven by a combination of higher oil prices, lifting contract prices and the additional demand for LMG in Japan they've since risen for further higher this year for about another 16% 2012 years of date at the other end of the spectrum US prices fell slipped by 8% in 2011 to an average of $4 per mnv to you they've since fallen another 42% averaging about $2.30 this year and at times they've been below $2 an mnv to you extremely low and a record discount to oil and a record discount to other international gas prices European gas prices hover between those two extremes they're between the US nation prices UK spot prices averaging $9 over to you in 2011 up 37% on the previous year milder weather helps keep spot prices below contract prices throughout 2011 and so far this year and that's despite the loss of million supplies and despite the divergence of energy in Canada various to Asia one of the main stories is the growth of international trade of gas facing the growth of consumption and production international trade was up 4% LNG was up 10% in 2011 a nice little symmetry here that 32% of all the gas that's consumed is traded across international borders and 32% of traded gas is LNG put those two numbers together turns out that about 10% of all the gas that's consumed arrived at its destination of an LNG cargo Asian LNG imports were up 34% there was a big shift in the pattern of LNG trade towards Asia European LNG was only up 3% Asia bound deliveries accounted for 90% of the global LNG growth in 2011 almost all of the growth in energy supply came from Qatar in 2011 which completed the final phase of their expansion of megatrends that they've been bringing on and Qatari LNG grew by 35% Qatar overtook Norway to become the world's second largest gas exporter the share of LNG delivering to Asia rose to 63% of the global total Europe's market share fell to 27% so what was driving this switch in the pattern of trade of course Japan's need to import more LNG dominated the headlines in all due to the loss of the nuclear power so Japan the world's largest LNG import increased LNG imports by 12 billion cubic litres 12.5% and they got additional supplies from a combination of some of the new Qatari supply and also a diversion of supplies that were going to Europe from suppliers like Nigeria and Ecuador again those cargoes got diverted to Asia now while Japan caught the headlines quietly in the background China recorded the largest increase in gas consumption in the world growing by 22% 3 billion cubic metres China's gas market has now doubled in the past five years still only the fourth largest in the world China is now debating a programme to double the share of gas and its energy mix from about 4% to 8% under its new five year plan in 2011 the growth in Chinese consumption was supplied by a combination of domestic production growth pipeline imports in Turkmenistan a very important new route ramped up significantly in 2011 and also LNG imports in addition Asia saw a strong LNG demand growth in India driven by domestic production problems and from South Korea which had strong economic growth and cold weather which was a great combination here LNG demand overall LNG demand in Asia was up 15% now with Asia absorbing most of the growth in LNG supplies there were little left for Europe European markets also had to deal with a lot of Libyan gas supply and large production declines within Europe so the North Sea production was down very significantly down 23 billion cubic metres where we have underlying natural decline of mature fields exacerbated by a lot of maintenance in 2011 much of which was unplanned the loss of Libyan and North Sea supplies was mitigated by an increased supply of imports from Russia but also very importantly by falling demand so we had a collapse in demand effectively right across Europe with a solid exception in Turkey due to a combination of weak economic growth exceptionally mild winter compared to the previous year and substitution by cold in power generation consumption fell faster in supply which led to a significant build up in inventories and that was what kept spot prices below contract levels while Asian markets were struggling to find enough supply for their rapidly increasing demand and Europe was coping with production declines North America was facing a very different challenge the continued momentum growth of unconventional gas supply in the US saw gas production increase by a record 47 billion cubic metres and that accounted for nearly half of the growth in world gas production in 2011 and it took gas production in the US to a new all time high above the previous peak of 1973 10 years ago everyone was talking about the US being in terminal decline in gas gas production and they would need lots of LNG imports to replace that it's turned out very differently 30% of US gas is now shale gas demand couldn't keep up with this production growth despite gas prices low enough versus coal to encourage substantial substitution in power generation this excess supply led to a build up in inventories and a reduction in net imports from Canada and in this year 2012 coming out of a relatively warm winter we've seen US gas prices fall even lower pushing the share of gas in power generation in higher, pushing the share of coal in power generation to record lows I just got an email from a colleague this morning from EIA, very good very cool where gas and coal are now equal shares in power generation in the US a really significant shift in the power mix in the US the growth of LNG trade and coal as a conventional gas continues to transform the world of natural gas in 2011 they combined to give gas markets the flexibility to accommodate the additional Japanese energy demand without disruption for other parts of the system to complete the picture we have to look at coal coal was the fastest growing fossil fuel last year both in production and consumption coal's story is one of production and trade patterns which are able to adjust to market conditions and coal has been buttressing global supply security coal production increased by 6.1% globally easily exceeding the 10 year average growth last year as in many years came from China most of the charts we have to truncate the scale we showed at a full scale everything else part of China was being visible China now produces half of the world's coal growth didn't come from India where there was a prolonged monsoon which caused production growth to allow consumption growth by an even wider margin than usual EU production grew by 2.6% that's very unusual first time since 1995 that European coal consumption increased only a small share of coal is traded but this share is growing in size and in reach in 2011 and outside of China coal export is benefiting from import needs in Asia and Europe being the largest contributors to production growth with Indonesia there recording the largest increase in production outside of China the world's biggest exporter Australia caused a decline due to the influx strong global demand was driven by non-OCD particularly with China up 9.7% India up 9.2% and if you put China and India together that's 98% as virtually all of the growth in coal consumption over the last decade OECD share coal consumption has declined from 47% to 29% last year OECD coal consumption declined by 1.1% five times the average and that decline was particularly pronounced in the US down 4.6%, 24 million tonnes of water equivalent where shale gas eroded coal's rolling power so this is the coal side of that gas story also a decline in Japan where coal fired power capacity was offline for a number of months following the earthquake these declines were partially offset by growth in the EU where coal was winning against gas partly because of lower prices but also because of some government interventions and regulatory incentives carbon prices were very weak and of course, weak carbon prices is a benefit for coal in the power generation there were explicit quotas protecting coal in Spain steam coal prices in Asia are made at a premium Chinese import demand driving up prices throughout the region even in Japan where demand is falling European import prices it goes even more rapidly 31% albeit from a lower level and enough to attract additional volumes from across the Atlantic now with Australia and South Africa's coal exports falling there was lots of room for other suppliers to fill the gap the most with exports up to Asia up by 18% Russia second meanwhile Colombia and the US and Russia satisfied Europe's higher net import requirements so a clear pattern in that this higher Asian coal prices redirected exports from Indian ocean suppliers which had previously been heading towards Europe back into Asia also attracting new supplies from Russia and Indonesia European markets compensated by picking up abundant Colombian and US coal supplies and of course that US coal was available at a competitive price because it had been backed out of home by cheap gas so that allows us to complete this puzzle of how markets coped the large scale disruptions that dominated the headlines in 2011 production increases demand changes even the weather played a part in essence however this is a story of fuel substitution and shifts in trade flows triggered by price adjustments before we leave that subject let's have a look at what happened to non fossil fuels nuclear of course was right at the heart of one of the disruptions nuclear production globally was down 4.3% the largest decline on record nuclear output is down to levels of 2001 nuclear share at global energy at 4.9% the lowest share since 1986 so that was a big impact but beyond the closure of Japanese and German nuclear actors the lower term of the impact of Fukushima was actually a relatively limited so outside of those areas 22 countries grew their nuclear production in 2011 and one country joined the ranks of nuclear power producers in 2011 around hydro electricity depends largely on patterns of rainfall the global level it was relatively modest growth 1.6% but there were big regional variations to the US saw its largest ever increase in hydro output and those had significant impacts on those regional power boxes other renewable power so this is solar wind, geothermal etc power generation grew by 18% that's the 9th successive year of double digit growth very rapid growth now it's the largest ever volume increment you turn that electricity growth into energy terms it's 29 million times of oil equivalent that's 10% of the growth of world energy consumption 2011 so renewables are still small in total share but they are showing up now in the growth of energy and it's a larger contribution of energy growth than oil for example the US, China and Germany together accounted for more than half of the renewable power growth in 2011 overall renewable energy if you're adding biofuels accounts for 2.1% of primary energy consumption now renewable energy didn't play a role in responding to the disruptions of 2011 the expansion of renewable power is driven by installation new capacity which in turn is driven by policy in time renewables may be part of a longer term response particularly if the output of the nuclear becomes less certain but in 2011 the path of renewables growth was largely predetermined by the existing policy settings and the capacity that had been added through to the end of 2010 2011 as a year when the economy wasn't driving prices but prices went up anyway and this introduced a new very familiar debate the impact of high energy prices on the economy particularly of high oil prices there is widespread consensus that high oil prices are detrimental to the world economy but there's no agreement on how high the price has to be or what the magnitude of that impact is if you're interested there's a rich academic literature that's delved into this complex topic you're not going to do that this morning I just want to pick out one element of the equation and that's looking at the way that petrodollars can be recycled the oil revenues earned by oil exporters they can spend it, they can save it to the extent they spend it oil importers have the opportunity to get some of it back by exporting other goods and services to the oil producers the ability of oil importing countries to do that varies a lot between countries Europe has been very good at that but the EU in 2011 was able to claw back a lot of the revenue that had gone to oil producers by exporting BMWs, Mercedes, whatever to the oil producers they're much more effective than the US likewise China is more effective than India in pouring back some of the oil import money that ranking hasn't changed very much what has changed is the relative position of the US not because they've got better at exporting to oil producers but because they're importing less oil as a result of their rising production and declining demand their net oil imports green iron over on the right there their net oil imports are declining and that's giving them an advantage in dealing with high oil prices now for most of the presentation I'll focus on 2011 let's stand back and have a look at some long term trends put 2011 into a long term context fuel substitution is an important part of the short term story the long term account part of that is the evolving shares of fuels in the energy mix oil has been in long term structural decline for 40 years now its share of energy 33% now the lowest in our data set and that line really shows you how how specialised a fuel can be can become transport in the case of oil gas share has been increasing whether in modesty in recent years the big increase in shares has been coal rapid increase in the share of coal in the energy and this has profound implications particularly for something we haven't talked about yet carbon emissions carbon emissions were up globally last year by 3% so faster than the growth of energy and that's been the case over the past 10 years that carbon emissions have grown faster than energy the carbon intensity of energy consumption has been increasing carbon emissions fell however in one large energy consumer that's not known for its carbon policies in the United States the reason of course is the substitution of coal by natural gas an example linking back to the development of new technologies and what that can do for you today's energy mix of course is still dominated by fossil fuels with renewable energy accounting for just around 2% of global consumption and the rapid growth rates and the continued financial support you can see it's going to take a long time for renewables to make a big difference at the global scale and I guess that's kind of without technological breakthrough and it brings to mind the question of we've seen technological change rapidly growing in the fossil fuels are there any lessons we can learn from that to apply to renewables second issue in conclusion is the look at the short term capacity of the system to respond in 2011 the availability of production the longer term counterpart of that is the the resources and we've been tracking proved reserves of oil and gas since 1980 and every year since 1980 gas reserves have increased every year except one, oil reserves have increased despite increasing consumption today's proved reserves of oil are sufficient to meet current production for 54 years the natural gas is 64 years more than a hundred years as we've long argued the world does face a lot of challenges in growing the supply to meet the world's growing energy demand but the availability of hydrocarbon resources isn't one of them the way we phrase it is the problems are not below ground they're above ground where does this leave us? let's try and wrap it up with a few takeaway comments it was a year of disruption with seemingly normal growth in line with long term structural trends it really revolves around the flexibility of markets so the ability to increase production to substitute across fuels to change trading patterns all of that has been crucial to the ease of which the system has adapted for this to work of course prices must be allowed to play their role of signals to the reallocation of energy flows one of our messages that changes very slowly is to praise the role of markets in guaranteeing energy security so there's a second related conclusion here it's become fashionable in some quarters to advocate energy independence as the path to energy security I think when you look at the data objective you see that it's precisely the interdependence of world markets with flexible trading that gives it real strength that's where the resilience of the system comes from just imagine for a moment that Japan is being truly self-sufficient energy independence not integrated with world markets in 2011 then many of the adjustments that we've seen would not have been possible thank you very much for your attention


Hi everybody, my name is Martha Lucy and I'm Deputy Director for Research, Interpretation and Education at the Barnes. And today we are going to be looking at a painting by Monet called The Studio Boat. So here it is, I'm going to show you what it looks like in the Barnes galleries. There it is hanging over in the corner. So this was painted by Monet in 1876. And he painted this when he was living in Argenteuil, which is a town not far from Paris. It's right on the river, the Seine River. And you know, it was maybe a, it is like a 15 minute train ride from Paris. And so it was very, it was becoming a very popular place for Parisians to go to, you know, take canoe trips out there or to go sailing because there was a big part of the river kind of opened up into a, into a big basin right in Argenteuil. So Monet lived there from 1871 to 1878 with his wife. He rented a house. The house was not far from the water. You could see, you could see the river from, from the studio. And he would, he would go right outside and, and paint scenes around the river. He would paint the boats. But he realized that he really wanted to be painting from the middle of the water. And so he had, he had earned, he had had a pretty big sale that year. And it allowed him to buy an old fishing boat. So this was around 1872. He had, you know, a year after he had moved there. He bought this old fishing boat and had it outfitted with his painting supplies. And he would take the boat out. He never went all that far from Argenteuil, but he would go to different spots. He would go out into the basin and he could get up close to the sailboats, say, that he wanted to paint. He would paint kind of scenes that had buildings in the background sometimes. He would go to all sorts of different spots. But here you can see that he's chosen a more tranquil spot, a sort of narrower, more kind of remote stretch of the sun. And that's part of what I love about this painting is how kind of solitary and tranquil it is and the way that nature is kind of just encroaching from all sides.  And there seems to be all this, you know, this sort of marshy stuff along the sides. But it's not encroaching in a suffocating way. It just feels like sort of, I don't know, sort of comforting in a way and peaceful. So we're looking here at the back of the boat. I'm going to take a sip of my coffee. We're looking here at the back of the boat. You can see that he had this cabin built right in the middle of it. And on the front, this is the front of it up here, there was an awning, which you can't see from this angle, but that's where he would sit. He would sit out in the front and he would set up his easel and he would paint. And there's actually, there's a painting by his friend, Manne, that shows very clearly how he, how it worked. That painting is at the Noya Pinakutek in Munich. And in it, you can see Manne, he's actually at his easel. And his wife is with him. They're just out, you know, for a day on the boat. And she's just sort of enjoying herself and watching him paint. So one thing that I think about is why paint from the middle of the water? I mean, he could have stood on the banks and painted the water. I think that one of the reasons is that being out in the water is such a great expression of the Impressionist ethos, which was to get out there in nature with your canvas, with your supplies and paint directly from your subject, you know. And so he's taking this a step further. He is not just painting the water, he's actually out in the water. And think about, you know, just to sort of immerse himself in the water so that the water is surrounding himself from all sides. And think about what a great subject water is for an artist who is so interested in optical sensation. I mean, and in capturing the fleeting, the fleeting effects of light, the sort of the momentary, because water is all about momentariness, right? It's catching the light, but it's always changing. It's always moving. But I think what's even more interesting about water for Manet is the reflections that it creates. In a sense, water takes the elements of a landscape. So say, you know, the trees, the clouds in the sky, here the boat. And it translates these elements into an image, a kind of ready-made, abstracted image that Monet could paint. And so here, it's like he's getting to paint the studio boat twice, once as it kind of appeared before him, you know, as a physical thing. And then another time as this abstracted image. And look how he translates that physical boat into this abstracted image. I mean, this is where his brushwork really just kind of loosens up.  And the colors change. He adjusts the colors a little bit just to kind of show that difference. So the sort of the pale green becomes a kind of greenish blue down here. Throughout the painting, I mean, one of the things that I just love so much about this work is the brushwork throughout. He is so free with the brush here, so expressive. And you can see when you look closely how quickly he really is working. Up here in the sky, there are passages where he's actually left the canvas blank, you know, and sort of in between some of the trees. And then that's happening also down here in the water. And then, you know, in the boat itself here, some of the edges of some of these things are just left unfilled. But look at the brushwork. It is, the strokes are moving in all different directions. Some of them are long and wispy. Some of them are kind of short and curved. Some of them are broader and flatter like these. And then you get these long, just squiggly lines. The brushwork, what it does is each of these marks doesn't necessarily, it doesn't really refer necessarily to a specific piece of foliage. It's more meant to evoke the impression of the surrounding foliage. When you look down here, this is one passage that I really love, the place down here where the water meets the marshy area. And look at the way that the water kind of comes in here and sort of pulls, you know, against the marsh, the way that it would in real life, and the way that he just drags this brushstroke on top, see?  And so when you apply the paint layer on top, some of the bottom layer kind of drags, the color of it drags through, and you can see that happening here, let's see. With the blue, it's like the blue wasn't dry when he applied the white, and so that blue kind of gets dragged through. And then up here, he's using red, but it's kind of combining with the white to create this pink. And also notice that it is that pink is meant to sort of represent the reflection of these red reeds or whatever they are in the water. It's very subtle and beautiful and just very free. So again, why paint in the middle of the water? Well, I think for practical reasons, the painting in the studio boat, it allowed him to get out close to a subject that he wanted to paint, like sailboats, for example, in the basin. And one of his most famous paintings done at Argenteu called the Regatta at Argenteu is at the Musee d'Orsay and was painted from the studio boat. But here, of course, we don't have a view from the boat. We have an actual painting of the boat itself. And he painted the studio boat several times. Sometimes it's kind of way in the distance. It's almost kind of incidental in the painting. But here, it's up close, and it's really the subject of the painting itself. And I think what's interesting when you start to think about the figure here is we always assume that Monet was depicting himself here, that he's showing himself at work on his studio boat. And that poses a really interesting contradiction, because the whole thing about impressionism was that you painted directly from your subject. It was about direct observation, and obviously he wouldn't have been able to observe himself painting from the boat. So what does this mean? Did he just kind of accept that contradiction and do this as a self-portrait? And maybe that's why he kept the figure sort of ambiguous.  Maybe that's why the figure is sort of hard to read. I think that there's also, though, the possibility that it's not Monet. When you look closely at it, I think it looks like it could be a woman. It could be his wife. This might be her dress, her hat, and she is maybe sitting here reading a newspaper. We know that she often went on these outings with him. So that's just a thought. Wondering what you think. Thank you for joining me today, and tune in again tomorrow for another Barnes Takeout. Enjoy your day. Thank you.


You guys have no idea how excited I am for this video. I mean, yeah, you probably do because I know you guys were just as excited as me. But for today's video, I am going to be reviewing and showing you how I got this look using the new Pat McGrath Labs Mothership 8 Divine Rose II palette. I'll also be mentioning some other things about other items in the collection as well. So if you are interested in hearing my thoughts, seeing this look and all of that good stuff, then just keep watching. I feel like it was definitely about time that mother came out with another mothership palette. I have been waiting you guys and let me tell you, I was not disappointed. So we all were eagerly awaiting Pat McGrath's Divine Rose collection. So I purchased some things and I'm going to show you what I already own. Before I get into the nitty gritty on the palette, I do want to talk about the collection a little bit and other important details that I think you guys might find helpful.  This has released. We've all fought for it. But basically in this collection, what we have here is, of course, the ever so coveted Divine Rose II palette. And then also in this collection, she re-released the original Divine Rose palette. Now, you had options of packaging, which I thought was really neat and which was why I was like ready to go and fight some people for this palette. She offered the Divine Rose II in this mirrored pink packaging. But what was also really special was she also offered the original Divine Rose palette, which was a smash hit apparently. So many people love this palette. She offered it in just this really pretty pink packaging. It normally comes in black if you aren't familiar. So you could get the Divine Rose I in this gorgeous pink packaging and then the Divine Rose II in this mirrored pink packaging. Now, of course, I did already own the original Divine Rose palette in the black packaging. I decided to give it to my mom because packaging is everything to me and I needed to have it in pink. And a lot of you guys definitely had to have the pink packaging too because especially for this guy, the pink sold out in minutes. It was crazy. Right now at this current moment, looking at the website, the pink original Divine Rose seems to be available. The Divine Rose II, both the black and the pink packaging are sold out. Divine Rose in the black packaging is still available. The pink bundle that I purchased is out of stock, but the bundle was great because you got a small percentage off. You saved a little bit of money, but so right now it's tough to get your hands on this palette. Also in the collection, she released some lip sets. I did not purchase anything from the lips. I was more so focused on. I also had the majority of the lip collection, so I'll show you. What makes the lip items in this collection special is that they have the special Divine Rose packaging. So everything's going to look like the new Divine Rose II box. And I'll show you the packaging of the stuff that I have. It's just for normal packaging, but I have the same colors. I believe none of these are new. You can buy lip trio bundles for $80 if you're interested. There's two lip glosses, two lip liners, and two lipsticks. I only had one of the lip liners, which was buff. It's just a really light pink lip liner kind of color. Really pretty, kind of very similar to my lip color. I had both of the lipsticks that she offered. And the first one is Christy. Now this I got in one of her little mini holiday sets. I had Christy. Christy fell on the ground.  I need to sanitize this. That's wonderful. Let me swatch her for you. I thought she felt pretty unstable in there, but Christy is the lipstick that's on my lips. And then here is the swatch of Christy Lipstick. Then we have Softcore. And Softcore is one of my favorite lipsticks from Pat. I think it's just the most beautiful, pretty pinky kind of color. This is a little bit more poppy than Christy. It has a little bit more purple to it as well. The first shade here is Christy, and then you see it gets brighter at Softcore. And then I only had one of the lip glosses, and this one is Divine Rose. The other one is Peach Perversion, which I guess is more peachy. I don't know, but Divine Rose is on my lips as well. It's just a gorgeous color that of course goes with the theme of the collection. As far as shipping for me, I personally didn't have any trouble. I usually seem to get pretty lucky knock on wood with my Pat McGrath orders. And it's strange because my mom also ordered the Divine Rose two pallets, same time that I did Weaver literally next to each other. And my order came today, and she hasn't even got a shipping confirmation. So that's weird. I don't, I don't know, but I just, I got lucky. I did, and I'm so happy. That means I can bring you the tutorial as soon as possible. Now that that stuff is out of the way, let's get into the exciting part, the nitty gritty, the pallet itself. Now if you are curious about comparisons or anything like that, I'm going to link my friend Alicia from Kiki Sweat's review down below. First of all, she goes into depth about everything that you need to know about this pallet, and she does the greatest job with comparison swatches. So I'm going to leave it to the expert, go check her video out for comparison swatches of how the colors in this pallet are going to compare to colors already in her line. Let's get into it. Let's start off with the major details of this pallet. So like I said, Mother's Ship 8 Divine Rose 2. As far as I'm aware from what I've seen on Pat McGrath's lives, where she talked about it, this pallet, whether or not it was limited edition, was a pending decision online right now. It says that it's limited edition, but she said there was potential that it wouldn't be, I'm assuming, depending on how it sells, what the people's reaction are. If you're loving it, make sure you express that to the brand so that it becomes permanent. This pallet is currently out of stock, but if you would like to be put on the waitlist, I will put the link down below, and you can enter your email to be notified of when this will be restocked. So if you aren't aware, Pat McGrath, Mother's Ship Prices, I mean, oof, it hurts a little bit. It does, even now for me. I'm like, but this is $125. Normally, she has a discount code where you can get 10 to 20% off, so make sure you keep an eye out for that. For this pallet, I believe it was Bloom 10, so I did get an additional 10% off. But since I did order the bundle, it was $2.30 for both of these with the 10% off. It was about $200, which I ain't mad about. That's like a decent deal for what you're getting. Also, something important to know about this is this is the first pallet from her line that is described as an artistry pallet. I'm going to assume that has to do with the formulations. The hot pink color in here is technically not eye-safe. It will stain your eyelids, so that is why they can't market it as an eyeshadow pallet because it's not eye-safe. Personally, I don't have any irritants with any of that. I do notice some staining, but it's not the end of the world. So for me, this is an eyeshadow pallet, but you can also do a lot of other fun stuff and you'll see that when I explain more about this pallet. Of course, this pallet is also offered in black. Why would you get the black when you could get this? I think the pink mirrored packaging is totally worth the wait for it to restock. I imagine this packaging though will be limited edition. If they do decide to keep this pallet, it will be only available in black. But if I didn't have a YouTube channel and this pink sold out, I would wait for it to be restocked. All right, so we're going to start off with the artwork here. Just this is part of the Pat McGrath labs experience. Really beautiful. Let me compare it to the original Divine Rose packaging for you guys. So the original Divine Rose is much more light. I feel like this is much more glam crown queen. Oh, beautiful. It's similar artwork to some already remaining pallets, but of course not in this color story. Just the Pat McGrath experience, of course, of course. Boom, then you have the packaging. The same packaging, just pink mirror. It's incredible, but when you open it up, it is just the black background, which I can't appreciate because I can imagine these colors being weird against this pink mirrored background. And in the pallet, of course, you are getting her original 10 pan layout here. For my interpretations in here, you're getting two mats, four shimmers, and four of her special shades. And then you're only going to get one of her really special super glittery shades that don't tend to have as much of a background color, but it's all about the glitter and glam. And then you have a new formula for her, which is a trichrome. And as you can see, just with this angle, how much it's shifting. Of course, indie brands, they did it first, but I am happy to see her do it because if any mainstream brand was going to dive into trichromes, I would expect it to be Miss Pat McGrath. Incredible shade of, I think this is the shade, sex trivert that caught everybody's eye in this palette. I believe the intentions behind this pallet was to take her original Divine Rose, which was a huge success in her line and make a crazy older sister here. So these are absolutely related. They play off each other well, but they are very, very different pallets for a different type of person if you ask me. If you're a very neutral toned kind of person, you might just want to stick with Divine Rose, the original because, oh my gosh, it's so bland when you look at this pallet, which has so much pops, so much richness in the shades, just completely opposite spectrums, but also the same. She did a really good job of making these pallets a family, but like one is the subdued sister and the other one is the crazy sister. As far as swatching and how these shades went for me, something about the formulas in here seemed to be really refined. I did not have any issues as far as swatching goes. The quality was consistent across the board, the formulations. Some of them seemed a little bit more buttery smooth. The normal, it's just something about the quality in here. I feel like stepped up her brand a little bit and that was hard to do because she had amazing quality before. I will say, swatching, I thought this shade right here, the Extreme Burgundy shade was a little bit patchy. I had to go over it a few times, but on the eyelid that wasn't the problem. This shade seems a little bit sheer, but when you apply it, it's really when it pops. I also have this shade as a highlight, beautiful as a highlight, and you don't need to dig into the shade or anything. It applies very smooth to the skin. The quality of this shade right here, which is called Eleganza, guys, it is so creamy. It feels wet when you touch it. It'll run all the way down your arm, extremely pigmented. Then you get into bronze, rosé, and gold lust. These two are her special shades. They have a little bit more of a dry and slick feel when you apply them, but they're just the same exact special formulas from Pat. Gold lust right here, this golden shade, it did exist in one of her kits from a while back, and that was kind of in the beginning of her brand. She's completely kind of changed directions as far as from the times when those kits were out. So technically this is a repeat, but very few people are going to have it. This one right here, Divine Dust, did not swatch as beautifully as Eleganza, but it wasn't an issue. Also something I would like to note, as I do notice, the more I swatch it, it seems to kind of change texture in that it looks like hard pan is in the pan, but you still get the pigment. I don't think that's going to be an issue as far as application. But yeah, I wish it was just as creamy as this, and that's not saying this isn't creamy. It is, but this shade is out of this world. Rose seduction is a hard color to formulate. I think she made it shimmery because it's a little bit more easier to work with when it's shimmery, and it's fine because you'll find with her shimmers, you can use them kind of as matte as well. She did a great job with this shade. I also use it as a pop of blush. I started off with this color, and then I use this color, but I'll go into that in a second. And then of course, the Tri Chrome. It feels really slick and beautiful, very pigmented. You don't even need a glitter glue with this shade, and it's poof. And then this shade is kind of her classic, special, glowy shade that you sometimes you just want to put all over your eyelid once you finish your look to really get that Pat McGrath effect. So yeah, now that I've talked about all of the shades, yeah, I love them. For sure, all of them seem to be absolute amazing quality. As far as my thoughts on the color story, it's a huge difference from the original Divine Rose. It is so bright, and I think if you are uncomfortable with brighter kind of looks, you might not really like this palette as much. Divine Rose is just really great for neutral lovers, and though this still plays on that peachy, rosy kind of theme, this takes it up 10 notches, and that I really like.  I said this. I had a feeling that this palette was going to be my favorite palette. I can't speak on that yet, because I've only used this palette once, but it's good, you guys. It's really, really good. The only thing that's kind of setting me back is I feel like with bronze seduction, my personal favorite, it's more neutral, it's more wearable, and you can do a little bit more as far as variety in the shades. With this palette, you do kind of have one color story here, so a lot of the looks that you get are going to look very similar. They're going to be in the same family. I mean, you have a lot of rose tone here. There's differences in the undertones, of course, and you can get different looks. I'm not saying that, but compared to her other palettes, where the color stories are a little bit more across the board, this one sticks pretty close to each other, which is a good thing or a bad thing. It's a bad thing if you don't like this color story. If you're not into those rose, hot pink kind of looks, this probably isn't the palette for you, but if you do enjoy these looks, it's a great palette. You're getting a lot of dimension, very unique shades, and really pretty looks, but they're all going to lie within the same tone. So that's the only thing that I would say could be off-putting to some people. Other than that, if you like this color story, you are golden. This is an amazing palette, of course, as expected. So now let's move on to the tutorial so you can see what colors I use to create this look. And I also talk about the formulations and my favorite ways to apply them as I go. If you would like to see a second tutorial, make sure you join me this Sunday at 3 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. I will be pulling this baby out and doing another tutorial on my live with you guys, so make sure you save the time and date for that. But anyways, let's get into how I got this look. Morphe Y17, and I'm going into Naked Blush. And we are going to apply this baby to the inner half of the crease. I think this is the perfect transition shade for every look. They did a really good job of putting this in the palette. It's just really the perfect shade, honestly. It's going to complement all looks that you can get with this palette. As you can see, it's stunning. I'm going to put this on as blush. With an ESOM S33, we're going into Extreme Burgundy. This shade swatched a little bit patchy, but as far as application, it literally worked beautifully. I have no problems blending this shade. I would recommend packing, pressing, and then going in to blend. So as you can see, I'm kind of creating the shape here first. Like so, blending this out a little bit. Use the shade sparingly. It is quite pigmented. And then I'm going with the Naked Blush Brush that I used. And we're going to blend this guy out and soften it. For a fun pop, I'm going in with my Mac 217 in Rose Seduction. This shade is so fun. It really makes the palette pop. And I'm going to apply this to the center of my crease to fuse those two colors together and to really amplify this look, y'all. It's incredible. Make sure we're going back and blending. You guys know I couldn't do this tutorial without Sextra Terrestrial, which is the trichrome. As you can see, look at that shift. It's really incredible. It's such a soft formula as well. I will say the shift, it can be a bit odd on the eyes just because sometimes I feel like the color does pull a bit murky when it gets to that green and a little bit dark. But I still love it because it's just so fun. And I know Indie Brands did it first, of course. She did a good job with her formula. So I'm trying to see. You see how it gets dark in certain areas of my eye that is from this shade. So this shade is going to naturally add definition to your eye. Anywhere you put the shimmer, it's going to have that shift. So if you don't want the shift to be this high, darkening this area, don't blend it up with your finger. I'm blending it up pretty high because I do want that shift. I want the whole look to be kind of fused together with a Morphe M507. I'm going back into rose seduction. This shade can be very intimidating, but truly I really, really like it. I think the quality of it is really good. It's interesting because it's not too powdery or anything. Like a lot of times this could be or it's not too patchy because it is a shimmer shade. But as you can see, as I run it along my lower lash line, the fact that it's a shimmer doesn't change anything. You can still blend it out as you would matte and it looks just fine. I'm taking a bit of extreme burgundy, which is that dark color. And I'm just lining the outer part of my lower lash line just to bring a little bit of definition down. We're going to take some of Skin Show Rose Opal. This is going to act as the lower brow highlight. And then, of course, the inner corner. This is a more subtle shade. If you're looking for a more wearable look, consider putting this all over the eye with Naked Blush. It'll be gorgeous. Next up, we're taking Bronze Rose. We're going to put this on the inner part of the lower lash line just for some added dimension. And it really pulls together with the gold inner corner highlight that we're going to put on top. And it adds extra dimension to the eyelid. What I love about Pat McGrath's shade specifically is how beautifully they layer over top of one another. So it's really just like art. Just adding those little extra elements makes a big difference, especially when the light hits. Now we're going into gold lust right here. So this is the one that was in one of her old kits from a very long time ago. But I think this pulls together the lower lash line and adds some warmth to the look. It's really, really gorgeous. And then, of course, just for some extra fun, we're taking Astral Pink Moon, which is a pretty sheer glittery shade. This is mostly going to add dimension and glitters and shine to the look. And I'm putting that right on top of the gold. This is the look.  So continuing on with this look, after I put on my lashes and liner, I actually wanted to use a couple of these shades on my face as well. I took the shade Naked Blush, which honestly, this is going to be one of my favorites and most used in this palette. It's just so versatile. And I use this as a base color for my blush. If you're more on the fair side, like me, make sure you tap your brush off. It blends out very easily, but it is an eyeshadow and you can tell, so just use a light hand. And then to add not only a little bit of shine to my cheek, but to also make it pop even brighter with my brighter look, I took some of Rose Seduction right here and I put that just like a tiny, tiny little bit on the apples of my cheek. And I mean a tiny bit and I blended that out. And then finally, I took a little bit of Skin Show Rose Opal and I use this as a highlighter. And you guys, I'm actually very impressed with how that Rose Opal did on my cheek as a highlighter. It's beautiful. It's not too dark. It's not emphasizing texture. She could sell this color specifically in this formula as a highlighter. I wouldn't even know it was in an eyeshadow palette originally. It is a beautiful formula as a highlight. I love my cheeks and I love that I could get this from this palette. So there you go, even more versatility and it's going to make the look more cohesive as well. I mean, that's really all I have for today's video. I'm at a loss for words because it's just really good, you guys. I think it's definitely one of my absolute favorites from her. It's one of the best jobs that she's done. She's done an amazing job at curating this pop palette. I think some people would interpret her palette as not necessarily wearable. But I feel like in all her palettes, for the most part, she has very wearable elements. I would say of the Mothership Palettes, this one has the least everyday wearable elements just because you have all of these pops here. But you can totally make it wearable. That's not an issue. But if you aren't comfortable with that, I would suggest looking into the original Divine Rose since that is available. It's much more muted. But if you are more adventurous and you want fun pops, this is a great way to go. It's one of her best that she's curated in my opinion. That is all I have for today's video. I hope you guys enjoyed it and found it helpful. I hope to see you guys this Sunday so that we can gush on this palette some more. So if you aren't subscribed to my channel already, make sure you take the time to do so. And I will see you guys in the next one. Bye, guys. Have a good one.


In the beginning, Lord Bung created confinement and the SCP community saw it and thought it was good, and it was good. So, uh, hi. I've been trying to do internet archaeology over the last couple of weeks involving a former member of the SCP community, Lord Bung. Lord Bung is the creative mind and creative hands behind what may be the most popular animated content ever produced about the SCP Foundation, a series called Confinement. But recently, Lord Bung's channel was completely deleted from the internet, and this was following a long period of drama and broken promises to the community as a whole. So I think it's fair to examine the question on the mind of a lot of the SCP community, what happened to confinement? Full disclosure, this video is going to involve me talking about someone who I've spoken with quite a lot behind the scenes. I've done an interview on a podcast with Lord Bung. Lord Bung was never really a friend of mine, but we've spoken off and on since 2018 or thereabouts. And in fact, Lord Bung is why I joined Twitter in the first place. Lord Bung prefers to speak over Twitter, and it was just easier to do it that way. So Lord Bung was my first Twitter follower, believe it or not. Additionally, I was a voice actor in episode 7 of Confinement, and at least theoretically supposed to have an expanded role playing the same character in the now never going to be finished episode 8. Just to answer a couple of questions real quick, no, I never saw a script, and giving how long ago that particular discussion was, that whole thing might not even have been true anymore. That character might not have even been in the episode, because it's been four years, I think, since we had that discussion. But I'm only mentioning this because I feel it would be dishonest to try and speak on this topic, as though I didn't have at least a minor connection to the events involved. But any connection I have is extraordinarily small. Also, this video will have to discuss certain topics very briefly, hopefully, involving sexual assault in the second half. There will be clear content warnings before those topics are covered, so you don't have to worry about it coming up out of nowhere. But first, we're going to talk about what Confinement the series is. So Confinement is a YouTube-based web series created by Lord Bung and featuring content based around lore from the SCP universe. The first teaser video dropped in July of 2017, so about six years ago. And it was followed up only about a week later with Episode 1, The Cannibal. And to say that the SCP community went nuts for it would be an understatement of fairly epic proportions. As someone who was a part of the community at the time, it was quite interesting to see how much love SCP animation was getting. That's right, the writer and on-site fanbase were actually super interested in SCP animation, like wild stuff. But the premise of Confinement the series was simple. There's a D-class named Connor, who is used to test SCP objects. Connor is immortal, so the deadliest stuff doesn't permanently take Connor out of the story. And the character eventually develops a requited love interest in a therapist, and really that's about it. The strength of the story was less than how complex the characters were, and more than looking at extremely serious and horrifying subject matter through a comedic lens. Since Connor cannot permanently die, it doesn't matter that, you know, the erudite brute from Episode 1 kills Connor over and over and over again. What would be a horror story for a regular character becomes comedy instead. And it wasn't long at all before Episode 2 came out, only three weeks after that. And again, it was highly praised both on and off the site. The series was doing incredible numbers on YouTube as well, with the videos getting around 10 million views or even more. But it should be noted that during this time, updates were coming quite quickly. Starting on August 1st, 2017, Lord Bung released five videos in five months. But it's fair to say that pressure was mounting as well. Something unsaid about high levels of success in any creative endeavor is that it pushes you to try and top the last work you put out. And another thing to note about Early Confinement is that it made extremely heavy use of copyrighted music. I think this lent a lot of weight to the seeming professional nature of the works as well. Like, here was SCP content long thought of as a completely amateur endeavor. But the finished confinement episodes were the kind of thing that if longer, you could imagine seeing on television or streaming. Behind the scenes, this actually wasn't as good a thing as it might have seemed. This is something I know from personal discussions with Lord Bung, but Bung wasn't 100% aware of how the content ID system worked on YouTube at the time. So these extremely successful videos were actually being claimed by the copyright holders of the music producers and record companies. And sometimes I imagine musicians whose work Lord Bung had used, which meant that the first few videos at the bare minimum, which by the way had like 50 to 60 million combined views, that's an insane amount of money, made Lord Bung no money at all. And they were not at all small projects or low effort creations. As we get along into this, we're going to talk a little bit more about money because it's actually at the core of some of the issues towards the end here. But that is something to keep in mind that the actual, like you may look at these videos and be like, well, you have a video with 16 million views.  Because that's roughly on YouTube, like it's extremely rough and every person is different. But it's a good average to say that for every million views, you earn about $1,000 in ad revenue. Or at least at the time this was being created, that was probably about true. Today, it's a little bit probably worse, I would imagine. But imagine that you put these works out and you get 50 to 60 million views and you can even see the amount of money it would have earned you going to someone else. And like I would estimate 50 to 60 million views probably would have been 50,000 to $60,000. That's not an insignificant amount of money. But making content on this level is not easy. It's very time consuming. So you got to have a regular job and then make this at the same time because it's not making you any money. But in a half a year, Lord Bung managed to produce four episodes of fairly high quality work and almost 40 minutes of content. That's basically a full episode of a television show, two if you're going for half hour content. And this was, as far as I know, a passion project. So outside of the voice acting, almost 100% of the work was being done by a single person who, again, was unpaid.  But I'm going to take a moment right now to recognize how extraordinary this accomplishment was. The fact that it was making maybe tens of thousands of dollars for other people is just the worst outcome for amount of work and effort being put into something like this. The final video of 2017 was a music video using In the Pines by Danny Farrant and Paul Rossin. And a lot of people are very familiar with this. And it was more well received than any previous works, 16 million views. And at this point, it seemed the only way to go was up. That's usually how this kind of goes. In fact, despite the video's huge successes bringing in basically no money, the Patreon that Bung had set up long before this was actually doing pretty decently. The earliest data shows that the Patreon was originally set up in February of 2017, so almost about a half a year before the first confinement release. At the time, it only had about $150 in pledges because Bung did other animation work that was generating this support. But by the end of the year, that was up to $600 a month. And by the time Patreon's dollar total was privated by Bung in early 2019, that had peaked at almost $2,000 a month. I believe it was 1800 and something. It's almost certainly gone up over that number by the time Episode 7 came out later that year because the number of patrons went up by about 30%. Episode 7 coming out in late 2019 betrays a rising problem for Lord Bung. See, despite producing four episodes in the latter half of 2017, only two episodes came out in all of 2018 and only one in 2019 near the very end of the year. Now, this was supplemented by more music video content, but the progression of the content release was getting more and more spaced out. And there were some rumblings in the community over this, but the perceived quality of the work was so high it was just accepted as a reality that, you know, if it's going to take the time, it's going to take. By the end of 2019, the last full episode of confinement had been released, and viewers were left with a ton of anticipation for Episode 8. And though the dollar number was no longer visible, as I mentioned, the pledges went up by about 30% during this time. And promises to come out with content eventually were being made. Outside of a literally seconds-long April Fools video, where the series' protagonist is almost immediately killed by SAP 682, those promises went unfulfilled. Episode 8 was never finished, and the community became more and more furious as time went on. Let's fast forward to 2023. Almost four years had passed with barely any progress. Updates had been made, but nothing concrete was coming out. And I personally poked at Lord Bunga a few times myself to get updates, since I'd been offered an expanded role in Episode 8. I was curious how much progress was being made, and also, let's be fair, I was excited to be involved. I only learned that personal matters were preventing the production from being finished. I won't repeat the comments that were made, but I can tell you with certainty that those comments were unrelated mostly to the public drama that we're about to talk about. Now, at the time, I hadn't really considered the Patreon issue of any of this, because I don't think about Lord Bung's Patreon. I think about my own Patreon. And updates had been made, but nothing concrete was coming out. As a creator, I don't really think anyone has owed content naturally. I have no personal responsibility, even if I make a promise that I'm going to put out content. I don't have a natural responsibility to do so. Unless there's money involved. The inclusion of money pledges doesn't just muddy the waters on the nobody is owed content thing. It completely reverses that assumption.  And you pay me. I owe you content. Period. And that's what has happened here. So at the time, I really just thought of this as Lord Bunga as a creator being overwhelmed with, you know, creator burnout.  My tune has definitely changed once I learned about the Patreon situation. We're going to talk now about stuff that can be triggering to certain folk. So if you find discussions of sexual assault to be triggering, I would highly suggest you navigate away from the video now. I'll give you about five seconds and then I'll continue. So Lord Bung was friends with slash in a relationship with a person going by the name of Orion for how long I don't know. But it was at least off and on for a couple of years between 2021 and now based on the tweets. What I do know is that Orion was claiming to be a co-writer of confinement and Lord Bung backed this claim up in a tweet at one point. This is only important as much as when on February 22nd of this year, 2023, Orion posted a tweet longer, which is a link to a longer version of a tweet you use on Twitter, that accused another YouTuber named quite of a number of things, including sexual assault. I am not going to go into deep detail on these accusations here because this video is focused on Lord Bung and the confinement series. But it would be remiss if I did not mention that these accusations were eventually categorically denied by quite and a lot of proof that they were false was presented. I'm not going to make a personal judgment on true or false here because I would have to be significantly more invested and knowledgeable on the subject. But I've looked casually at some of the accusations and some of the evidence and it seems pretty, the accusations are very light on proof. The denial is extremely heavy on proof. That's what I can say for sure. This is important because Lord Bung was fairly intricately involved in the details of the situation. First, between the accusations and the eventual debunking. I'm going to put quotes around it, but you can draw your own conclusions of those accusations. Lord Bung came out in support of Orion as both a friend and a collaborator. This is not wholly unexpected. You tend to want to believe and protect your friends. But secondly, during the lead up Lord Bung had actually acted as a mediator between the two to hammer out their differences because Lord Bung was somebody that knew both parties. Obviously acting as a neutral mediator when one of the parties is someone you were in a relationship with is already a bad look. Regardless, it was bad and it was extremely, extremely one sided. Quite categorically denied the accusations of both of them and then backed it up with receipts. At that time Lord Bung withdrew from sort of public posting for just a little bit. But the damage to the reputation was already done. Now we can stop talking about that mostly. Earlier this year, that's where we stood. We shouldn't discount the effects of creator burnout on somebody's ability to produce work. I feel that from time to time. Lord Bung also had an incredible standard to live up to and sometimes the most intimidating person in your life is yourself from the past. And that's its own kind of daunting, but not too long after this Lord Bung announced that production on confinement was coming to an end. How much this had to do with say a co-writer on the project being publicly embroidered in a scandal as anyone's guess? Not to mention the effect of having Bung pulled into the whole thing as well. Drama can drain you of creative energy just as much as actually creating can. And that's where we ended. In early June, Bung announced that the Lord Bung YouTube channel would be gone. Deleted. If you wanted to grab the videos, that would be the time. A couple days after that, the threat was followed through on. And that's that. I mean, sometimes even the most popular content sort of just wanes and fades into obscurity. The story of thousands of channels before Bung, it'll be a story of many, many more afterwards. And I wish I could tell you that there was something embarrassing or explosive to end this story. Well, not really, but the clicks would be nice. I'm sorry. Sorry, what's that? There was a leak? So there was like content from episode eight that leaked? What's it? Oh. Oh. Oh, kidding aside. We should briefly talk about the episode eight leak. This wasn't a leak in the traditional sense of the word. Lord Bung actually released it to the public. I can't show you basically any of it here. First of all, it's not a complete episode. It's basically a music video. If I had money to bet, that's not because it was going to be part of an episode, but rather that the animation had been finished and the voice acting hadn't been finished at the end of the project. And since it wasn't going to be completed, there need to be some sort of audio, put a music on top of it, release it, right? But the content of the leaked scenes is, honestly, there's no other word but bizarre to you. You can use to describe it. In it, Connor is highly sexualized and inadvertently, with the biggest possible quotes I can muster, sexually assaults like a dozen people. It's a strange end to a series that had astonishing promise in its early days, but I guess sometimes that's how it goes, I guess. By the way, if you were one of the literally hundreds of people who pledged, like I think it was close to a thousand people in the end, literally hundreds of people who pledged the series on Patreon, I want to apologize personally. I don't think I have a lot of responsibility for that, but I think all of us who lint our voices, either literally as voicing a character or figuratively by talking about it positively, truly expected this project to continue, but we passed the point of reasonable delays three years ago. I know I only have three lines in the series, but if you're a fan of mine who went over to check it out on my account and ended up losing money to a basically scam Patreon, I'm truly, truly sorry. There's nothing I can do about it, but I guess I can apologize. And that's it. Thank you very much for watching. If you enjoyed the video, hit the subscribe button, hit the notification bell, so you're notified when I upload new videos. And then, and I know this is a weird thing to include, but it's something I include on every video, because it's important you can't create content on this platform without Patreon. I'm, gosh, this, you know, let me just show you the people. You know what? We're not going to do the call to action. I'm going to leave all this in. I'm going to do exactly this thing. We're not doing the call to action. Just here are my Patreon backers currently. I very much appreciate them. It would be super weird for me to be requesting your Patreon monies right now, based on the content of this episode. So just here's the people who have already supported me. I very much appreciate them, including Cingeriki, who's pledged at $100. It's nice to know that I'm not alone out here. And I will see you all again on Thursday with a very late Dank Memes from Site-19 video since the subreddit has finally no longer gone dark. We'll talk about that then a little bit.