Blammo do you want to get strong? Of course you want to get strong. That's why you listen to mine pump All right, here's we're gonna give away for you right now map strong We named the program strong because that's what it does to people make some strong We couldn't name it sexy because it does that too, but our marketing team said no don't do that So it's called map strong you get free access to it if you win the following contest Here's what you do leave a comment in the first 24 hours It would drop this episode make it a good comment subscribe to this channel and turn on your notifications If we pick your comment if we like your comment better than all the other comments will notify you and then you'll get free access To map strong isn't that cool? Oh by the way, you're gonna enjoy this podcast We have Peter linman on we talk about the economy why it's not gonna crash This is a good news episode. So if you're tired of feeling crappy, you'll love this particular episode also one more thing Maps anabolic is combined with the no BS six pack formula this month for a bundle deal a bundle sale So you can get both for $59 and 99 cents That's the savings of over $100 if you're interested head over to maps october comm to sign up. All right, here comes the show We wanted to start with by asking because it looks like now We when we had you on last we speculated about inflation because of the money printing. It looks like they're now Admitting. Oh, yeah, inflation is happening. Although. We're also hearing that this is transitory or whatever We're also hearing about supply chain shortages Can you kind of explained what we're seeing right now with rising prices? And then what do they mean exactly by supplying chain shortages? Where are we seeing that? Okay, so let me give you a Short answer in a little color short answer is There is year over year inflation, but Remember how bizarre last year was so whenever you do a year over year comparison event anything You got to think what was a year ago. So if I told you wow, I'm walking a hundred percent more than I did a year ago 150% yes, but you were down with surgery a year ago, right? It's not a reflection on how much you're doing now But you had just came out of surgery a year ago Well, the economy a year ago was on its deathbed. Okay, no one raised prices last year They didn't even raise the price of toilet paper last year think about that You know huge demand no supply toilet paper price didn't go up and by the way late April the price of Oil was negative Not just low. It was negative to get rid of a barrel of oil I actually had to pay you to take it from me Well, that's not normal and those things rippled through the economy and I'll give you one other Use cars. Well, one of the main sources of use cars supply Are the rental company the rental car companies, right because they turn their fleet over Last March April May June. They were all going bankrupt because nobody was renting cars, right? What did you do to get cash when you're going bankrupt sell your cars?  Nobody So the price of used cars plummeted with extraordinary supply and extraordinarily low demand Now let's come back a year later and think about these things Okay, so well, you just got out of surgery, right? You just got out of surgery nobody raised prices last year even if they could Can you imagine what would have happened if the toilet paper companies would have raised their prices of toilet paper at that? They'd have been crucified right so they didn't raise it But this year they're raising them for two years worth, right and maybe a little more and Let's go back to the used car example the used car example Well this year the rental car companies have no cars to sell into the used car market because They sold them all a year ago. They don't have any And on top of that since the economy is more or less recovered people are buying cars again Including used cars. What do you think happens to year over year change in auto price use car prices? They skyrocket absolutely skyrocket and in fact 20% of the five slightly over five percent increase in prices that's occurred year over year 20% of it was for used cars 20% of all the price increase on average was due to one thing used cars Did any of you buy a used car in the last month or two? No, probably not so but it went up and It's enough. It's about how bizarre it was a year ago and by the way still going on Oil gee oil went from negative To kind of normal you think that skyrocketing inflation coming from that as it goes through But it's more of a return to where it was So yes, you just got out of the hospital with hip replacement a year ago You weren't walking very much this year. You're recovered So if I did a year over a year comparison, of course, you look like you're walking tons But you're really just back to where you were Kind of when you were healthy There's a lot of that going on and I only give you a couple of examples. You add to that things like Border controls on cross-border transactions some of them relating to tariffs and trade wars, but some of them relating to Safety, right? We don't want Doc work or some doc workers ship workers, etc. Etc. Etc. Vietnam Vietnam closed a lot of their factories just closed them Well, you talk about what supply chain problem mean if Vietnam closed their factories They were providing it to somebody Right. Why did they close it because of COVID? So you've got a lot of that kind of stuff going on and it's real In the one hand and on the other hand it's completely anomalous And you've got to kind of step back and look at it a little bit So most of the inflation you're seeing is anomalous Or purely reflective of how bizarre last year was Rather than this year. So exceptions, but that's the short version So peter that that explains kind of the goods and service side of it pretty well But what about what we're seeing in the housing market? I mean the housing market is Now that's out of control and that hasn't slowed down and that was even high last year During all this. So how do you explain that and rent and rent? Yes. Yeah Last year rents didn't go up because no landlord wanted to be a headline, right? No landlord wanted to be a headline And by the way, you didn't even know if people were going to pay you last year This year landlords are getting two years of rent increases Plus the supply slowed down last year, right because of the shutdowns of COVID and projects that were delayed So guess what this year? Rents are way up on the on the on the rental side and you go, of course. This is that's not monetary being created, right? That's just You reduce supply you increase demand you don't raise it now you raise it two years worth You an outcome to single family We have underproduced we have about 145 million housing units in the united state just roughly um, and Back at the envelope. I'm going to be real fast 100 million of them are owner occupied 45 million or renter, okay over the last 20 years largely because of nimbyism Not totally but largely because of nimbyism We have underproduced single family housing by about three and a half million units So hundred million under supply by three and a half million and on the multi family side about 500,000 On 450,000. So something like one percent under supply on multi Doesn't sound like a lot except people need housing They need housing So a one or two or three percent shortfall Doesn't do anything to the price of bubble gum because if they try to back jack up the price of bubble Gum people say i'm not going to buy bubble gum. I don't need it housing very different. So a one to four percent shortfall and multi and single family Big deal big deal because people will bid up the price and that's what you've seen In both markets for over a decade with the oddity of last year for a little bit Now it's a fundamental under supply of housing again. That's not monetary That's about local ordinances and And taxes and so forth Fundamental over supply. It's not going to go away. Come on. Think about it. We've underproduced four and a half million units One percent of the housing stock over the last 20 years We're not going to eliminate that in a month, especially in the face of nimbyism That's why prices have been going up steadily Why did single family go up? more than normal norm And the reason is you need a down payment to buy a home, right? Not only do you have to make the monthly you need a down payment That's a big problem with a 10 to 20 down payment because people don't have 20 or 40 or 50 or 60 000 laying around What happened during coven what happened during coven was or especially a year ago You got refunds on your holiday trip.  You got refunds on your baseball Tickets you didn't go to the football game last year. You didn't go out to eat It's you didn't buy a nice new dress, etc And you're saving skyrocketed and there were people lots of them That save more in nine months than they had in nine years And suddenly they look around and say I can afford a down payment I would have never adjusted my lifestyle to afford it But my lifestyle got adjusted for me and I can afford the down payment and that caused the surge And then add one other thing The other thing is what was the age of most of the people dying of coven? Most of them were 70 and 70 years and older, right? And most of them Most not all About a third of them were dying within months of when they would have otherwise died from some reason, right? But about two-thirds of them died anywhere from two to ten years earlier than the otherwise would have died, right? Why is that relevant for home ownership for home ownership? Because they died earlier than anybody expected and what did they leave? They left an inheritance to you guys And we're not talking about big money. Suppose somebody had a life savings of 200 thousand dollars and they have two kids and uh three grandkids five five inheritors 200,000 Because they died years earlier Five people got 40 thousand dollars inheritance many years earlier than they would have and Used it for a down payment. So we're not talking about rich people. We're talking about normal And so that fed this surge you saw in the single family Is that money for down payment was there because of involuntary savings and unfortunate early covid deaths Those two are going to moderate right lifestyles are coming back. I'm going to a concert tonight People were at the ball game the other day, right? So the savings part is disappearing and thankfully not as many people are dying early And leaving requests. There's still some So the single family side underproduced Home prices will exceed inflation For a good long while because of that and on top of that you have this surge that will moderate Peter when you look at the the economic climate. Is there anything that you think People should watch out for or keep an eye on or anything that worries you at all? Oh, of course, there's a map. There's a million things that worry me, but none of them keep me up at night the only thing Look, let me take the one that a lot of people would answer which is um, gee the The biden democrat whoever whatever you want to call it Taxes are going to go up and that's going to kill the economy and blah blah blah, right? And by the way, the democrats will say since we're spending so much. No, that'll offset it and blah blah blah I'm 70 years old and I've been through kind of every kind of politician combination over the years Do politics matter to the economy? Of course are they They more matter about who wins and who loses Then how much in general, right? They're more about you win. I lose Well, your win kind of cancels out most of my loss not all of it maybe but most of it So politics is much more about who wins and loses Than the overall drag Yes, there is no doubt that higher taxes put a bit of a drag on the economy But we're talking second order You know, like let's say GDP grows two and a half percent a year on average um, maybe it's a 20 to 30 basis point Drag two tenths of percent three tenths percent a year That's a real number on a 21 trillion dollar economy But and especially if you did that for 30 years it would add up But when you look at the big picture It's rounding air versus all the other things that drive the economy or slow the economy down And so I don't worry I mean, I don't worry about Government actions Governments always do stupid things through my entire life One of the things that distinguishes the united states is We tend to do less stupid things than the rest of the world Which is appalling when you think about it, right? It's like wow and yet So we carry on we We're more powerful than their mistakes And their mistakes are serial. They're not limited democrats are not limited to republicans. They're not limited to today It's always been there. So I don't worry about that. That doesn't mean I don't have an opinion But I don't worry about that um What do I worry about? Here's a thought that should terrify everybody for a moment Which is what if delta is a really mild variant in the big scheme of things That 10 years from now we're doing an episode and we look back and say remember how mild delta was How non contagious delta was how non virulent delta was Because future variations became even more virulent And more transmittable, right? So there is this sense floating around That delta is as virulent as it'll get. Well, we don't know that I hope it's true. We don't know that And it's very possible that two years from now because this isn't going to go away Biologically we we may live with it perfectly over the next two years And then another variation comes up that really hammers us. So that worries me The reason I don't slit my wrist over that is The breakthrough of mrna is stunning and The speed with which they can address such things Is stunning in terms of coming up with Reasonably effective vaccines now it'll be expensive, right? But so I don't worry about that. What else should people worry? Okay, all right repeat what you said in washington. I you broke up right there's a there's an old phrase I think it's a tribute to the coatbill, but i'm not sure which is no man's sake while the legislature is in session And that's been a good crude guide To my view of the world By the way, it doesn't say no man's safe while the democrats are in session or the republicans or the tories or the liberals You know, it's just it's a broad statement So peter let's say somebody's in a position to Invest they've they've done a good job. They're moderately successful. They've saved money Knowing how things look right now Where would be the best places for them to invest to grow their money and protect their their wealth Get in get in assets get in real assets. I wouldn't do bonds Get in real assets. That could be real estate. It could be a really good company, right? A really good company is in the real economy, right? They're selling things that ever hire prices as things go and and they'll be bad years and good years I would say get in real assets and I would Ten to want to get into less volatile real assets But for example, bitcoin is not a real asset, right? It's it's an asset But it's not a real asset. There's no cash flow. There's no whatever whatever doesn't mean it's a dumb investment I can't figure it out. But there's a lot of things I can't figure out in the world Um I would get in real assets. So I would say and Get in real assets Get in with with modest leverage or no leverage depending on your situation And be in it for the long term. There is so much money in the system that has been put in by the fed It's been put in by the government That I think over the next five years multiples expand cap rates go down The price of a hotel room will go up like this I don't know exactly when I don't know exactly which assets by how much But money is going to chase assets And when it does it's going to bid the price of those assets up And I want to own assets get assets Don't put yourself in a position Where you've borrowed a lot of money And if I'm wrong by a year you can't Right, you know service your debt Make sure you can easily and I mean easily service your debt And collect assets and you could collect assets by going on wall street Or you could collect assets by doing your own deal or being on a private equity fund or doing somebody else's deal Collect assets to hold do you think you're going to go on back? Here's an interesting you get a lot of people You know, there's this battle between greed and fear, right? We're human It's like the devil on one shoulder and the angel on the other in our life, right? Greed and fear greed and fear greed and fear. Okay, so People have this tendency to think They talk about this especially more in the stock market, but also in real estate cap rates Um, we're in a period where greed is winning over fear, right? People have lost their fear We aren't even close to people losing their fear. How do I know that? We have astronomically All-time high cash holdings by individuals and businesses You don't have huge cash holdings When greed is rampant, right because when greed is rampant You'd be getting out of cash and into Anything right any and everything Well, that's not what we see We see that people are holding all-time records amounts of cash. So we aren't even close to greed Really winning and similarly banks have staggering amounts of lending capacity Well, normally when greed is really winning Banks are lending like mad. Well banks aren't lending like man right now When will asset values really take off when greed takes over? When the belief the trees grow to the sky takes over and it will Right, it will at least temporarily and then it'll swing back So I think the ride on asset prices is Inevitable And it's going to be large I just don't know exactly when it happens And I just want to have assets when it does Now we've seen the travel industry sort of recover Gradually here. Is there any other industries you see Now starting to recover to kind of look into as far as you know kind of coming back full circle Well industrial properties are already back, right? They not they only They only suffered for about two months last year and then really came back and they're being fed by Demand exceeding supply because Every time a short a shirt is sold through online rather than In a store it takes about three times the amount of warehouse space And that's caused a shortfall. They have wider aisles. They have assembly space They have shipping areas much more than the typical warehouse does to serve as a brick store. So That is clearly recovered multifamily, I think has Pretty fully recovered Has that doesn't mean it's not going to perform well Retail by and large at least good retail fully recovered Um not way ahead of itself, but it's fully recovered the two sectors that have hospitality as you say is Moving forward The fact that we're opening our borders. I think it's november 1st To vaccinated foreigners will help Will definitely help because it won't help demoing so much, right? But it'll help new york city san francisco Orlando, etc a lot vegas I think vegas is back to about 90 percent of 2019 But they're not getting much foreign. They're getting some from mexico a little from canada But we're not allowing the others in so as that happens. They'll benefit New york will benefit from a travel side so that the international side opening will help The two sectors that are Stumbling still for lack of a better phrase Senior care Right, not so much independent living senior but senior care And the problems they are twofold, right? Do you really want to put your grandmother In a place where two weeks afterwards the place may be shut down And you're not going to be able to visit your grandmother for a month And so you go, well, I don't know. I'm going to wait and see why am I going to put her in just to have them Shut her away from everybody, right? And so that's in the back of a lot of people's mind dampening demand and the other thing is caregivers The last numbers I saw were like what 45 to 55 percent of caregivers Are vaccinated and you know your grandmother is in a vulnerable population And whatever your views are on vaccination. I want the people around my grandmother Not to get her sick You don't know where those people are at night or during the day, etc Right and that's dampening the demand in senior now. I think that will be resolved But it's going to take a little time. There's still recovery that could happen there There's some people having debt come due so there could be some stress the other is office and office as you know is either wildly overpriced or wildly underpriced it's kind of And what you see in the pricing is kind of the weighted average of those two It's wildly underpriced if you think by 2024 It's basically like 2019 Namely you go to the office everybody's there Sure, some of the people are working from home. Some are traveling, right? But basically everybody's there in the way it was in 2019 if you believe that which I do office is wildly underpriced wildly If on the other hand you say no After a year and a half two years of being online and doing this People are never going to fully go back to the office. Maybe it goes back to 60 percent of what it was That's 60 percent will largely concentrate in the better buildings right not in the weaker buildings and But with 60 it'll never be what it was If you believe that it's wildly overpriced It's hard to be in between right because it's either or And I was just having a conversation with a client today saying Um, I believe it's wildly underpriced But in the case of this client you have fiduciary money People are not giving you money to speculate And I wouldn't double down. We already have some office exposure. I wouldn't double down if you're a young person with Personal like your your grandma died and left you three hundred three thousand dollars I think going And investing in the REITs the office REITs would be a great play because the worst that happens is It never recovers and the three thousand you got from your grandmother becomes 1500 And the best thing is it becomes nine thousand or eight thousand And it's your own personal money and so office is To be determined I have my own view, but it's to be determined Peter I want to go I want to go back and ask you about the the housing prices and this potential of it continuing to run Um, I saw a chart and and I think it was uh, it's somewhere around the 1970 I must say 1971 ish Where it was comparing housing prices to the average wage You know our average salary that we were making probably the average income or something. Yeah. Yeah, and It's crazy to see what how tiny of an increase we've seen in the average salary or income Over the last three four decades, but yet the housing prices It does at what point do they get out of reach? For a majority of the population or is that even a problem? And are we just going to see a greater gap? Uh, our disparity between the wealthy and the poor so In some ways sometimes economics is right Economics never said that if your income went up by 10 percent you bought 10 percent more of everything Right never said that and it turns out Interestingly, you mentioned 1970. I did my phd thesis at chicago in uh, 1976 70s. Yeah, 76 and one of the things I Found was as income goes up people are going to spend an ever disproportionate amount Trying to upscale their housing, right? That looks obvious today as you look backwards. It wasn't so obvious then And that's because it's something people really want Like university education, right? People have been willing to spend their money on that health care They've really been willing to spend their money on that. So we spend less and less of our money on clothing Even though we buy more clothes clothing is very cheap We spend less and less of our money on technology Even though we buy more technology it's gotten really cheap offsetting that or these items like housing and housing Need not go up faster But if you don't let the supply fully adjust it will so in dallas and houston Historically, it's not risen that much faster than income, right? It's kind of in dallas because it's easy to build there And if you go to california and new york and a lot of other places that make it hard not impossible Make it hard. Guess what? You have a lot of demand not much supply price goes up You add to that that we had a lot of asset inflation From 2014 to 2019 we had a lot of asset price inflation Including on homes and I think you hit it Which is what is asset price inflation means? It means if you own the asset You want asset price inflation. That's one of the big reasons for nimbies, right? If I own my home I don't want to make it easy for you to build because my home goes up more in value, right? so What's happened is You get A four percent increase in your income And you think yep inflation was only two percent. I got a four percent increase I got a two percent real increase Yep, and then you look and housing prices went up by seven percent And then the next year same thing you did better inflation on your wages And yet you're farther behind chasing the house Who's happy and who's unhappy the party that's happy Is the asset owner, right? And the party that's unhappy is the person who's trying to buy the asset That tends to be a generational divide, right? That tends to be people my age own and people your age are trying to own And so it has been a big generational gap and that will continue It is also some because of the down payment part. It also relates to family wealth It used to be that if my income was going up at four percent and home prices were going up at three percent I could Catch up, right? I accumulate enough That can't happen with this fundamental under production Now it does happen in houston in dallas And san Antonio and i'm not just saying texas, but you you get my point, but in the coastal markets the high Nimbio markets It's shameful It's shameful So because of that point, um, I've heard people speculate that Idaho is going to be the best predictor for us on how the rest of the Country is going to pan out because they don't have such Such restrictions. They're building like crazy. I think they also have tons of demands. They have some of the highest demand in the country And they're building faster than or anywhere in the country So a lot of people speculate that what we see happen in Idaho as far as the market and pricing will kind of start to Predict what we will see everywhere else. Do you do you subscribe to that? I don't think it will predict what we're going to see elsewhere because elsewhere is not going to allow Building to keep up with demand. I don't think california is going to allow Supply to keep up with demand. I don't think Santa Barbara do you really think santa barba? Is going to allow building to pick up to keep up with what demand would be no way No way, right? Forget whether they should or shouldn't no way And um, so I don't think it's a good predictor I do think it is a way that Boise and um, and bozeman and do what houston and dallas have done for a long time, which is They're great. What's the greatest competitive advantage of dallas in houston? It's not that they speak texan the greatest advantage is That from a cost point of view housing is affordable Really affordable that means as an employer you don't have to pay outrageous wages To allow your workers to live well, right? You don't have to and That is the secret and that's why dallas in houston have grown a lot faster Than have the california places, but Um, it's it's all about look. It's purposeful, right? It's not unintentional um It's purposeful Don't you think I wish Don't wouldn't it be nice if I could pass a regulation That said no one other than me can ever give advice on anything economic That convenient right can't hurt me and will probably increase the amount I earn right Well, that's what's going on in the nimby places, right? That's the same notion If you got a home great if you want a home that hasn't been built good luck No, do you do you think that they're going to? Raise interest rates anytime soon or do you think they're going to keep them low for a long time? I think they stay low for a long time and might they raise them Yeah, they might raise them essentially from zero to almost zero right you have to be I watched a woman the other day at the gym And I noticed that she was actually peddling the stationary bike faster She was going about a mile an hour with no resistance Instead of a half a mile an hour with no resistance That's kind of the interest rate scenario on the short side You know they might raise it, but it's still effectively nothing It's still going to be a negative rate relative to inflation um So I think on the short end you might see a little the fed has been a terrible predictor of the fed I mean this is not it's just a factual statement the fed has been terrible at predicting Their own interest rates So, you know when they announce after each meeting their dots and I don't even I don't even look at them because They've never predicted themselves If they predicted themselves that would be interesting But this is if they If they're just random in terms of predicting themselves. Why do I care? I did a better job of predicting the fed than the fed did predicting the fed now. How is that possible? I mean It makes you wonder and it's not that I did such a great job It's just that tells you how bad they've been but I do think you'll see the short go up a little bit The long if the fed stops buying bonds In qe there'll be a bit of a rise in the interest rate But by any historic standard on the long end, it'll still be quite low Do you think then it's uh, it's a good idea to if you invest in assets like homes to do Adjustable rate mortgages or do you still think it's a good idea to be safe? Go 30 or fixed and Okay, it's about what your objective is um I this is a philosophical answer rather than anything else My view is I got into the asset. Let's just take single family housing I got into it because I wanted to live there Not because I wanted to speculate on interest rates, right? That's secondary. I got in it because it's a good school district Nice bathroom good kitchen You know, that's why I got into it Lock that in Now may you look back and say oh gee I could have gotten it cheaper. Yeah And by the way, in fact historically I don't know 85 of the time you'd have been better off floating than fixed It's just that that 15 of the time historically can be quite painful, right? so but Probably short term is always not always most of the time been Financially better, but I didn't get into it for that. I got into it for its bathrooms and backyards, etc Fix it, you know, just fix it and the fact that you can prepay Just adds to that. Namely if it gets even cheaper prepay and refi And I feel the same way by the way on an apartment bill and I have an apartment complex where we've made a lot of money in the noi and cap rate sense Unfortunately the debt we locked in on exactly the philosophy. I just said right the philosophy was We're investing because we like the market. We like the asset. We like what we can do with it And I don't want to speculate on interest rates because either I'm going to be right or wrong on interest rates So we locked it in for 12 years And I think we still have six years to go So it doesn't take a genius to figure out that the prepayment penalty is pretty stunning because it's not prepayable. So it's a Fanny product and we're sitting here. We're essentially all the profits We would have made if we sell the property will be eaten up on the prepayment penalty You know, okay fine. What we'll do is hang on to the property keep cash flowing. We're cash flowing very nicely And you know just that's not such a bad thing But I can't monetize the game I can monetize the cash flow, but not the game And you say, well gee, don't you wish you'd done floating? Well, sure if I knew the rates were going down, but I had You don't know I mean, you don't know and so I wanted to make sure I was safe with the asset. That's my general philosophy on on debt Peter have one last selfish question to ask Give me three to five of your favorite places to invest in real estate in the country right now Okay, so they would all They would all be multifamily um I think by the way, I'm not going to do the office because that's a very different risk profile in the way I describe I prefer to hear single family multifamily investment. That's yeah, so I think they would all be Well, let me put it this way. They'd all be rental the only reason I would gravitate to multi Rather than single Is I can get freddy and fanny financing quite effectively, right? I there's a deep Market for multi Relative to the borrowing market for single. That's the only distinction The demand side is very good for both the supply side Good balance of both And I would gravitate And I'm just going to name places um off time I had places like chattanooga um Huntsville alabama Why because I can borrow basically at the same rate And the same amount of debt LTV in those markets as I can in the major markets And I pick up 25 to 50 basis points more yield Going in and if you do the math on that And you're talking about say i'm going to hold it 10 years that extra Cash flow matters a lot right now if I was going to flip in a year That extra cash flow for a year doesn't matter much, right? But if you're going to and that's true whether it's short term or long term, right? If you're going to then hold it though for 10 years, I just think The weight of money is going to push up the value I don't like the supply demand any different in those kind of markets than the others But I like the yield and I like the spread of the yield First is my freddy fanny kind of benchmark on multi and that's the only reason I would prefer The multi Over the single is I can just get much better freddy fanny kind of depth Of the financing market and lock in that spread that's But I like the single family Rental side as long as you operationally can do it. I like that Good spread and so forth. It's just not as deep a debt market Excellent. Well, we appreciate your expertise. It's always a blast talking to you. Peter. This is great. Thank you very much Thanks a lot guys. Have a great day


What's up, everyone? It's your girl Kenzie here from Leighton Sports Cards and I'm ripping a personal or rip no personal I am ripping 21 22, but you need Chronicles basketball hobby six box half case break number 11 random teams Again, here's a look at the random results. You can always find these at Leighton Sports Cards comm underneath the results tab I just scroll up Scroll up a little bit and they're also in the chat for you. All right Thanks again everyone best of luck. We've got one more of these left up next last I checked there was one spot left and very well be sold out for Chronicles after that. We've got a couple of gold standard Breaks that have spots as well as a full case break of NT football random divisions That still have spots remaining then definitely need some love on those baseball that we had to move to the end of the Nights who've got Evan Mobley rookie Jalen Green rookie Shingoon Duarte filler here Jalen Green out of honors Rockets Chris Duarte Chris Duarte and a purple Kessler Edwards 7 of 49 for the Nets a Spurs pack Excuse me Evan Mobley rookie Josh and Gitty rookie Joshua primo 27 of 149 spurs Book night Halliburton Tree Murphy the third and Corey Kisper brawn Kate Cunningham rookie for the Pistons Brennan Boston, Jr. KD on the red foil that is 120 of 149 Jalen Green hometown heroes. We've got Isaiah Todd on the rookie for the Wizards 84 149 hometown heroes auto Wizards with the first auto of the break Steph Curry and Anthony Edwards get everyone plenty of room left for personals tonight as well We do have these in stock as well as the gold standard football for personals if anyone is interested from Wagner rookie base Keita Kyrie Damian Lillard to 49 on the threads Austin Reeves We've got Jalen Johnson on the cornerstone 63 of 99 Hawks Nice one there first cornerstone that we've seen tonight on the quad relic auto You go Hawks on the combo spot Nicholas D Nice looking cards there Got Jason Tatum and Kyrie Zion Luca we've got LeBron out of 149 Quentin Grimes Silver Halliburton Um, Zyra Williams and a bones Highland. Give me one second Let's pack box one RJ Zion. We've got a Kade Cunningham rookie base Got a playbook Franz Wagner plate and patches 111 of 249 magic Shangoon red rookie of Dwayne Washington, Jr. For the Pacers on the prism update 12 of 149 John and a Herbert Jones All right box two here again everyone. We didn't have to move baseball to the end of the night. We've got two Pops chrome jumbo four box random team breaks again. Those are 20 autographs on average Perb rate. Let's get those filled up four out of 49. Isaiah Jackson rookie Duarte, we've got Joe Weisskamp for the spurs 35 of 99 rookie auto out of hometown heroes Spurs Kyrie and Duarte I don't know if I asked this already just baseball one time. Yeah. Yeah, yeah Kade rookie James book night Mitchell Got filler here crusade Jalen sucks Trey young scotty barns rookie out of essential and red. Thanks for the subscribing Darian Marquis 91 of 149 scotty barns No raptors That's numbered barns there Josh giddy Great brown a Jalen green rookie base out of playbook 75th anniversary Herbert Jones 29 of 75 Subtime We've got sixers Charles batsy on the rookie jersey auto 93 of 99 out of limited There you go sixers Scotty barns out of marquee and and the miller ball kisper Got josh christopher on the rookie one of 201 On the titanium First one of those that we've seen today too.  We got bones. Hyland red foil 24 of 149 Ben Simmons silver rookie of keon johnson from prism update blazers Those sumo and shreyman lost pack here Moses moody keon johnson tree murphy the third They've got plates and patches scotty barns on the red color match 59 of 149 You go raptor scotty barns rookie out of honors purple rookie out of honors. I are williams 22 of 49 Lebron james and bones. Hyland box three re kade cunningham rookie here at seven red of uh jason tatum 32 is 75 celtics scotty barns rookie book night Franz Wagner and a kade cunningham marquee Is scotty barns fan time curry mitchell williams davion mitchell red out of 149 kade cunningham rookie base silver Cameron thomas brandon boston jr and brandon boston jr scotty barns rookie i'd say it's hot Here at seven we've got blue to 99 jammer rants on the timeless treasures Franz Wagner rookie out of phoenix. We've got orange wave crusade herbert jones for the pelicans nine out of 75 Orange wave there yannis and yannis Mcleveen Reeves thomas bones hyland 275 on the anniversary card out of playbook Wayne washington jr. We've got another cornerstones here of jericho sim 61 of 99 for the uh nicks you go nicks scotty scotty barns rookie out of xr and jason tatum bryan james quentin grinds dole suman we've got franz vagner rookie out of honors jalen suds rookie and blue rookie 17 of 99 elphrin shingoon for the rockets Last pack box three here Ant-Man, Duarte, Washington, kai jones on the blue foil that is 12 out of 99 hornets Primo, we've got to 75 rickiotto silver from phoenix uzman garuba Garuba for the rockets Franz Wagner rookie and a tree man rookie All right solid first half of that break Second half of the break coming up again everyone Let's give some love to those top chrome baseballs at the end of the night Still 20 plus spots available in both of those those are four box jumbo breaks Again five autos per box on average so 20 autographs coming out of those breaks 236 of 249 timeless treasures xr williams Willow tylan jalen suds rookie phoenix josh gate for the uh thunder out of essentials and evan mogulimarky Nice pack there sga kai jones villi duarte isaac jackson We've got clippers on the rookie jersey autos 74 of 99 jason preston Clippers Cameron thomas and cameron thomas Merge jones kd we've got train man filler posay alvarado xire williams Quentin grimes and purple automarky for a 49 franz vagner Nice hit there going to the oh Door lando you to see what the magic does go around See some ink for the magic. I haven't seen any yet Feed cameron thomas out of 149 nets Robert jones for the Celtics robert parish hall of fame 79 of 99 We go Celtics Parrish uh evan mogulimarky out of xr and bones highland Tatum train man kai jones Zion on the 75th anniversary 26 to 75 Lebron out of crusades silver and jonathan kominga warriors xire williams and xire williams last pack What's up mouse jalen green rookie Wiggins komingo. We've got purple cameron thomas from plates and patches 47 of 49 Davion michael red crusade jalen sucks magic that one is 131 out of 149 curry and ant man Right box. I'm sure that break 12 is probably sold out. There's yep. There's one spot left in that All right, so basketball all sold out for the night now looking to fill up Football which had a couple and then the baseball at the end of the night. So limited spots remain Still plenty of room for uh, Personals as well. I'll be doing those after group breaks tonight Cade cunningham on the absolute rookie lucadonshitch number to 149 maps Trim Murphy the third we've got out of 149 for the nyx a jericho sims There you go nyx 125 of 149 Jalen sucks marquee and franz bockner young michael Leonard bones hyaline darin sharp filler Ron james harden We have trade man rookie and red on the color match for the hawks little trayway 137 of 149 The hawks on the trade y'all Who do y'all got tomorrow stealers of browns? You're sure to answer correctly LeBron, we've got Cade cunningham rookie Christo Arte Yannis on the 74th anniversary 75th anniversary 60 of 75 There you go box cameron thomas. We've got to 149 john collins Hawks starting to heat up here john collins airborne auto Franz Wagner and Cade cunningham evan mobley Jalen green rookie out of threats shingoon shingoon's out of plates and patches to 249 Tough call uh-oh man, that's that's bad when it's a tough call between the stealers and the browns Yeah, most of smooty wattford brandon boss and jr brandon boss and jr. That's sad Go back Yeah friends Wagner rookie base Kita who's manga rubo. We've got Jalen Suggs on the blue foil 25 of 99 Wow, my opinion's going with the browns. That's uh, jash or primo the stealer fans can be a long year. I feel it Josh kitty on the silver rookie for the thunder Sean's over here laughing because of the big upset last He's on his high still yannis and yannis Last pack here I think that should be a pretty good game. Yeah evan mobley rookie Herbert jones. Hopefully they come out to play from you know quarter one They need to Yeah 72 out of 99 rookie jonathan komingo warriors Primo, we've got blue rookie for the grizzlies a little off color match their desire williams 48 of 99 uh, kade cunningham rookie and jamarons To it doesn't go off to the start though so yeah I gave him the go over roger I picked up joe fraco. Really? Yeah I'm gonna go with everyone.  Absolutely Scotty barns rookie uh, isaiatad red out of 149 timeless treasures of kessler edwards for the nets book night kade cunningham out of hometown heroes jason tatum and kairi and trevisky should not be the starting quarterback tre young kisper Got scotty barns rookie out illuminants zire williams on the 75th anniversary 44 75 grids bronze vagner rookie silver rookie zire williams tre murphy the third and kory kispert robinson url subs kessler edwards kian johnson ayado sumu we've got gold rookie of kian john johnson for the blazers on the prism update that is eight out of 10 Nice one. They're portland prism updates. Heck. Yeah eight of 10 Grats on that one. We got josh gitty rookie and evan mobly A couple packs left and we'll do a recap here straight man Todd evan mobly rookie base luka on the uh redfoil 149 premo for the warriors to 149 uh rookie auto want scano anderson on the airborne zire williams zire williams i mean we can't rely on the defense every single game though that's the thing yeah two offensive touchdowns in the last two games that's ridiculous whoo josh gitty rock ildo sumu yannis fran's vagner honors we got a redemption to end us off Steph curry red alfred shagoon uh to 149 rockets that's the base i gave to my students and they knew to knock it off let me tell you I got the mom looked down already All right limited rookie jersey auto nice so out of limited rpa card one Trey murphy the third another pelicans hit there on the redemption Trey murphy the third rpa What's up uh huli All right Stop Go ahead and do a recap here We had the want scano anderson warriors out of 149 john collins for the hawks auto to 149 Jericho sims for the nicks out of 149 robert perish for the seltzakes out of 99 uh rookie jersey out of 99 jason preston clippers oozman garuba for the rockets to 75 Jericho sims on the cornerstones of 99 nicks uh rpa for the sixers to 99 charles bassey joe wyanskamp to 99 spurs another cornerstone here for the hawks jaylon johnson to 99 a uh auto for the wizards isaeta to 149 and then our redemption of trey murphy the third for the pelicans All righty that will do it for um This half case we've got one more coming right up


European lawmakers have called for an ambitious outcome to November's COP26 climate summit during a debate in Strasbourg. Parliament is set to vote on the block stands on Thursday as it heads towards the summit being built by climate campaigners as crucial if the worst effects of global warnings are to be reigned in. The event, which will take place from October 31 to November 12 in Glasgow, will seek to clinch more ambitious targets from countries to cut emissions and finish the rulebook for how countries set targets and track progress under the 2015 Paris climate deal. To keep 1.5 degrees within reach, we need a reduction of 45% by 2030 globally. And we are not on track if we look at the current pledges. And this is also why the Glasgow moment is so important to raise the ambition of all the different countries in the world. Today's pledges, who adds up to 3 degrees of heating, are far from enough to avoid the climate catastrophe. Instead we need sharp actions such as ending fossil fuel subsidies, pricing emissions as in the ETS and action on the climate finance. Most importantly, we need a true crisis inside taking us from words to action. What we have to do in Glasgow is to find the leadership and show that this is not the way to go forward. We need to show that there are other technologies and we need to be generous with those technologies because those who are in need of them won't have the money to use them if we don't give them the money. Hello, hope you enjoyed the news. Please do subscribe to our YouTube channel and don't forget to hit the notification button so you get notified about fresh news updates.


We just made these two door hanger signs with these giant jars and we used some UV resin to try to make them pop and we'll show you how we did it right now. What is up? A welcome back. Do you like to do a builder make it? So do we. And we have a new video each week. This week we're getting into some giant jars. They were mason jars so I really saw this cute door hanger that I had Garrett design for me. We started as our mason jar in our lemon tier tray but I wanted to do its own door hanger mason jar but then I had the little idea that I wanted to make the jar look more like a glass jar. So we're going to try something new. We haven't done this before. We're going to use the new mason jar design but I'm going to add some UV resin to give it that glass jar look. Glass jar feel. And we're each going to make one with two different themes. This is going to be fireflies with a night time feel. I'm going to make it glow. And mine is going to be more of a summertime lemonade, poppy kind of light sitting on it. Yeah, refreshing. That's the reason I'm doing fireflies is really so that I can make glow in the dark resin. If you remember from Christmas he really wanted that vertical Christmas porch leaner that had Christmas lights on it and we used resin on them. He really wanted those to glow in the dark. So it had to look real. He is still looking for glow in the dark signs and I think we're going to have something to try this time. That's my goal. Glow goal. Your glow goal. Step one. We're going to gather all of our supplies. I pulled the kid out of the store. I'm using the firefly door hanger kit and I'm using our refreshing lemonade mason jar kit and then I'm using country chic paints but I don't know what colors yet some glow in the dark paint. I'm going to make those fireflies glow. Yeah. I got to make them look real with some UV resin and we'll be using our UV light from our icon art custom stencil kit. We made one of these reusable stencils back in December and we highly recommend it. You can use our code MAKEIT for 15% off your custom stencil kit. We figured this light was a little more powerful than the wimpy light that comes with the UV resin. Yeah it's just a little guy. There's a lot to cover right here. Yeah. Big area and I wanted it to harden up fast especially if you're going to try to make it look like liquid. Yeah. I'm trying to wait till you see it. I'm going to have drips in there. Drips. Drips and waves. Yes. Ice tea waves. Lemonade waves. Lemonade waves. Yes. Step two. Now we paint. It's only three tries. So we're going to paint the backers. I think I'm going to try to get fancy. Make mine look like dark sky. Right. I'm just going to share a little bit. So we do add this blue tape on our kits when we sell them because everything is cut so they will pack so that the frames help keep it tight and keeps it packed tightly for shipping. So you'll have to take this tape off and then if you've ever received a kit, we recently changed to the blue tape previous to that. We had the clear tape and a little light sanding goes a long way. So just wanted to show that kind of smooth things out a little bit in case the paint leaves any kind of texture. The other thing is we make the cut so when you lift the frame up for these mason jars, this is what you're going to put on top, the frame part, the rest of it comes out. Now you can paint yours however you want, but that is our plan for now. So I wanted to show you that. I think I might leave my top pieces in. This piece goes in the trash. My lid pieces in and painted my different colors so it looks like the fireflies are trapped in the jar. Poor little guys. I'm going to poke air holes in the top. Okay. All right, am I coming in with this, what is it, midnight sky? Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. You should put a little midnight sky on there. And I am going to draw the base of some plastic. Is that your splashing liquids? Yeah, is that it? Yeah, I would say that's about right. Yeah, looks good. You're going to come in with, that is a good lemonade color, I'm going to say that as a I can already see I want a brush. Yeah, these sponges leave a lot of marks. They also take a lot of the product. Yeah. We use this little resin thing that I made, I'm going to dip my sponge brush in there and then use the Country Chic paint. Try to blend it. I'm going to blend it. I'm going to use his fancy paint techniques. Yeah. Right in my brush. Now we're going to glue it down. We're going to glue the design down to the backers. I'm going to start with my frame. Yep, so we've added all of our paint. I added some stripes to my straw, give it a little something something. Give it a little something something. Yeah. We did just have a whole conversation and debate on whether or not to glue the words down and then add the resin or add the resin and then put the words in it while it was wet. The tricky part with mine is I'm going to try and keep the resin only in the yellow and I think if I try and put the words in it's going to move it. So we've decided to glue the words then we'll add the resin. Now the other thing I was going to show you for mine is oh I want to make it a mess. Oh no. I want to keep the spacing correct. I did not paint mine in the frame, Garrett painted his in the frame so I did put it back in the frame and put the tape on it and then I'm going to pop it out and hopefully keep it on the tape and then lay it down so you can watch me do that. Set my frame over here. See now I'm going to put my my draw pieces back in I painted them. Yeah I debated I saw yours. I saw what you did there. Oh you saw that. I'm going to get in that one. That working should I try that? If you cut your tape don't leave your tape with wings. Oh okay. The sweet need to be in white. I need to bring the white in from this lemon don't I?  Call out the sweet part. The sweetness. The sweet juiciness. Alright sorry back to my drawing board. I feel like this is, do you have all the cameras going so you can see? Yeah. I feel like the all pink. Malt. Yeah it's more of a, so I really wanted to use cherry blossom but this can is out out and I don't have any right now. So I decided to use full bloom which is nice but once you put it all together it looks like something needs a pop of color here.  This would be easy. Easy to do. Yeah redo. Easy redo. Step two again. Back to step two. And the great thing about these paints is I can go right over it and it'll do it. That's the great thing about these little paint dolbers. We use the makeup sponges too and if you hold them just right they don't go over the edge too much either but these paint dolbers are better and you can wash them out. So we do rinse them out and reuse them. Should I use this yellow glow in the dark? Yellow paint. This ultimate glow in the dark. Oh. I'm going to go with ultimate because it says ultimate. I'm going to paint their butts. For the resin. We got the UV resin we're going to make it pop. Yeah we're going to take it to the next level. We could stop here. Yeah we could. I just add a bow, throw some clear coat on there, call it a day. Pop in the daylight too. So I'm going to add a little resin in the butts, let it spill out a little bit. You might want to add this little yellow dye to give it that daytime glow in your resin. Here's a little cup. Ooh I'll use this. I'll use that. Well I don't know if that'll mix with the resin. That's why you've got to use the special tool. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. Giving it that double glow. It looks pretty, it's pretty mixed. All right I'm going this way first. Ooh look at that. Oh my goodness that looks so good. Let's get this closer. I better do it one at a time if you're going to harden it or try and harden it. You know what? You might need to do that in layers, a thinner layer and harden it in a thinner layer and harden it. True. I'll just do a thin layer. Yes, that's it. What a great color. That's a little thicker layer, I'll do this again. That's enough, that's enough. Let it harden. All right. Now the light that we stole from the other place, how long do we do this? What does it say? 90 seconds huh? You want to show them yours? Yeah. Bam. Can you see? Can you see their butts have bubbles in them? Yeah, show your side camera. I guess a side camera can see. I think I'm going to add a little more glow in the dark paint. All right, do you want one of these on? All right, so for yours we're going to try to weigh down the thing. Mm-hmm. And then freeze it real quick. Are you going to use this brush? Sure. On the four side. It's really just a ribbon for the hanger and my bow. Kim gave me a pre-made. She pre-made it. I did. I have already whipped up these bows. Whipped them up. Kim's came out a little wonky. Let me put my bow on then I'm going to show you. I got it. It looks so rough that I need to add the bow first. She can't unveil it until she's got something to take the eye away from the liquid. I put holes on the mason jar so you can just slide your ribbon through. Yep, I was just going to do that same pitch. I love that he adds this little feature to all the rounds. It makes it so much easier to hang them. You don't have to have a hanger. You don't have to mess with any hardware. Yeah, no hardware, no hot glue. You just tie this ribbon and it is right there. The knot is the hardest part. And my little tip. I think I already mentioned this before in one of our other videos, but I found someone who was using these zip ties as the bow ties instead of ribbon wire and game changer, game changer. So if you're not using zip ties, I highly recommend it. Yeah, someone mentioned in the comments before that the zip ties changed their life and they were sorry they didn't mention it to us before. They really did.  It's so much easier. That's why you lay it down flat. I don't know.  Yeah, pull it on through. Lay it down, put your ribbon on. You bow on. Gotta get my bow on. Which side? This side? Yeah. This side? Let me see. Let me see it on this side. Let me see this side. Lock down tight. You ready for your unveil? Yep. Should I unveil mine first? Yes. Bay. Firefly kind of day. Night, I guess. And then here's mine, which is cute. I love the whole concept with the straw and everything. The idea for the resin. I mean, it hardened. It's doing what it's supposed to, but I don't know if the table wasn't level enough and it slid. I know that coming back and adding more resin after it hardened a little bit was not good because you can see where we squeezed in a little extra here and there to fill in some spaces. Do we have any resin experts in the house? It looks like it's separated from the paint in some places. Do you know why? Can you tell us? Should we have sealed it with some kind of clear acrylic first or something? That's a good idea. You guys, let us know. It looks a little wonky. It looks cool. And I see, I like the design. Concept. And I see the concept. Execution is where we lost it. Have you messed with UV resin? Have you made any signs with UV resin or jewelry? Do you need to put down thinner layers? I don't know. I don't know why it didn't glow. And I don't know why yours came out all wonky. If you guys have any UV resin tips or tricks, leave them down below because I definitely want to do more with this stuff. It's cool that it hardens so fast. I will say if you do purchase these mason jar kits, so there's two of them. There's just the home sweet home kit will be there and then the lemonade kit. This is a bit extreme. So we're working on what we can do for shipping with the straw. The lemon does come separate. And so I've just glued it on. It's back. You'll see that it's glued on. And we're going to do something similar for the straw so that it can come and ship in a box and not be sticking out that far. So we're trying to keep it contained in the size of this so that shipping is cheaper. I think we're about out of time. So if you're not going to join us for the patron after show, we will see you next week where we'll do it, build it, and make it again. And I'll balance mine because I don't know if yours will make it through the balance. It's on there. It's hard. Ooh. It made balance rushing the straw. Oh, no. Just a little bit. Here we go. I hope you enjoyed it because it's about to break it. Not even joking. Oh, you almost broke it with your... It hurt my finger.


real-world problems, a lot of times they don't have a clear bottom-line win, otherwise we wouldn't debate things. According to rules set by the candidates themselves, what we are trying to accomplish here is really to demonstrate that we can have a meaningful and valuable discussion between men and machine. We are actually trying to show that a computer system can add if you want a conversation or decision making by bringing facts and doing a different kind of argumentation. Hello Dan. Thank you for the opportunity to be here today. The debate system tries to understand the concept over which we are debating. Having analyzed the data, I will argue that we should subsidize music education. When it gets the topic, until you hear the first speech, it's collecting all the possible arguments, trying to remove redundancy. It is about recognizing important issues for society. The system is evolving. IBM Debater can have all the opinions in the world, but IBM Debater does not pay taxes, and we do. You are speaking at the extremely fast rate of 218 words per minute. There is no need to hurry. The value of the technology is really to allow decision makers to take more informed decisions. There is a territory which is uncharted to some extent, and this is where we are now. Thank you for listening.


Moving on, film fans young and old, some dressed as their favourite Avenger characters, walked and posed on the red carpet in London's Lechester Square on Tuesday for a special screening of the superhero story The Black Widow. The Marvel Studios movie's starring Scarlett Johansson as Natasha, a rumour of Black Widow, the Russian-born spy turned Avenger, is among a slate of upcoming major releases postponed last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic and which cinema operator Hope will revive to get sales. A reoccurring character in the Marvel Cinematic Universe since 2010's Iron Man 2, Romanov gets a standalone movie with Black Widow in which she revisits her past. Fans hope to lure back audiences with movies like Black Widow, F9 and 9th installment of the popular Fast and Furious franchise and DC Comic Films The Suicide Squad.


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Uhhhhhhhhhh! Uhhh... Buh buh buh buh buh buh buh buh buh buh buh. Buh buh buh buh buh buh buh. I am Con Jo! I need TP for my bunghole. Nnnn... Bung-hole-yooyol- HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. OOOH! Woah, that's strong. Ay, y'all got some more eggs? Dude, you need to lay some more eggs man. I think they're tasty. Aww! Can I fry this? Do you have air fryer? Uhhh... Dude, Monster Hunter World gave me freaking face cramps. I was like, uhhhh, uhhhh, uhhhh, uhhhh, uhhhh.   Oh, okay. Ah!  I'm running. Whoop! You! No, no, no, no, no! Oh no! Drink, drink, drink, drink, drink, drink, all right. Ah, the two swipe thing always gets me. Okay, the three? Okay, I don't know what that was. Mr. Owl, how many licks are you gonna get to this never-kitty-roll-ticking-top? Yeah, kid. Just get some candy to an owl and ask him a question. And you have those moments, where you just wanna cool off. You just wanna eat one with your drink. You can pop open yourself with ice-cold, sparkling Naples easy. Ooh, that's tangy! I can't do it. Ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah! Hey guys, thanks for watching the video. Please comment, like, subscribe, and all that good stuff. And make sure you click the bell to be notified. Otherwise, you ain't gonna see this video. Wait, how did you see this video? Okay, bye.


So, welcome back to NPTEL lecture series on total synthesis of natural products. The last 4 lectures we talked about many total synthesis of tychonanes and there are many more methods for making phymombered rings. So today I will just talk about few methods where phymombered rings can be made and also discuss one more total synthesis of tychonanes. Cousin con reaction is one reaction where routinely people use to make phymombered rings. See for example, if you have a double bond and a triple bond that appropriately placed then if you treat with dichopalt octacarbonyl and followed by oxidation with n-methylmorpholine in oxide or dimethyl sulfoxide one can get the corresponding cyclopentenol. So depends on the ring size you get the other ring can be phymombered, phyrombered or any ring but this pass and con reaction will give phymombered ring. Particularly this reaction works on the other side if it is 6-mbered and 5-mbered okay. So here you have a di-quinone structure. And this is another example where you can see you can put a hetero atom okay. It can be the hetero atom can be oxygen or hetero atom can be nitrogen. Still this reaction works well to give the corresponding cyclopentenol. And one can also use other reagents for example one can use Wilkinson catalyst the same condition you have a double bond you have a triple bond. But here for the carbonyl source you do this reaction in under carbon monoxide atmosphere and you also have to use silver triflate to get the corresponding bicyclic compound. One can also use molybdenum hexacarbonyl in DMSO and if you reflect at 100 degrees you can do the same thing and this is interesting combination where instead of double bond you have an allene okay. So allene that internal double bond undergoes pass and con reaction so you see this double bond the terminal double bond becomes exocyclic double bond in this case. And one can also use this for hetero triquinones in this particular case you have a nitrogen and with this nitrogen one could make the assort triquinones using pass and con reaction as the key reaction. And there are other methods as I said used for making five membered ring one of the methods which is quite frequently used is vinyl cyclopropane as you know vinyl group attached to cyclopropane can undergo like this rearrangement for example you can write like this the cyclopropane are like double bond and sometimes cyclopropane as you know because of this ring strain it tries to open and if you heat it this can undergo this type of cyclopropane vinyl cyclopropane rearrangement to give cyclopentene. So here is another example so this can undergo the vinyl cyclopropane rearrangement to give this dike unit. This is another interesting example where you have cyclopropane attached to the double bond and the double bond is part of a five membered ring. So this will give you this enol TMS ether and one can hydrolyze this to give the corresponding heat if you hydrolyze this with acid you will get the corresponding dike unit having a carbonyl group. So this vinyl cyclopropane rearrangement also has been used to make at least two five membered rings if not for 3 or 4. Then the standard reaction which is routinely used for making five membered ring is aldol reaction so you have an aldehyde here and methyl group so you can generate anion here that anion can attack this aldehyde followed by elimination of water you can get the five membered ring and same thing you can see you have methyl group you can generate anion add to this aldehyde so that also will give a five membered ring of course this has been used in the total synthesis of one of the trichunemes that is a linear trichunemes and this has been used this particular example has been used in the total synthesis of an angular trichunemes. So you can see you can generate anion and attack this aldehyde followed by elimination of water you get angular trichunemes. So alkylation aldol reaction sometimes even Michael addition or opening of the epoxides have been used successfully for making five membered ring. So if you look at this example it is a beta keto ester so one can easily generate anion here and intramolecular is sent to substitution will give this five membered ketone okay. So if you decarboxylate then you get corresponding ketone otherwise you get the corresponding beta keto ester. The next example you have cyanide of course because of the cyanide you can remove this proton once you remove this proton using a base maybe you need strong non nucleophilic bases like LDA that can immediately open this epoxide to give the corresponding five membered ring. This particular example is very interesting you have a Michael acceptor and you have Michael donor it is a keto ester, beta keto ester the anion can be easily generated selectively this can undergo a 1, 4 addition intramolecular 1, 4 addition to form 2, 5 membered ring it is a di-quinate. Now one can remove this ester because it is a beta keto ester so that will give symmetrical molecule then this double bond can either cyclize here or it can cyclize at this carbon so that is how one can make angular tri-quinates so Michael addition followed by an aldol reaction one can construct a tri-quinate and in this case it is an angular tri-quinate. So there is another reaction which is called Nazaroh cyclization see this Nazaroh cyclization is nothing but if you have a dienome like this you have then this on treatment with acid you get corresponding 5 membered ring and more substituted double bond you get a cyclopentenome and the double bond is more substituted okay and you can also control the region selectivity of the double bond form say for example if you take this example okay so there are 2 possibilities one what I have written here another one it can also form like this is not it but between these 2 only this forms the reason is as soon as it coordinates with Lewis acid more than this double bond migrating this double bond will migrate and because of the lone pair here next this double bond will migrate so that will give you this as the major product. So depending on what you want you can use a substituent in the dienome to get exactly where the double bond is required you can also use silicon silicon also used to control the double bond which is required. So for example if you want the double bond to be here in this double bond here so then what you do you put a silicon at that curve okay so now what happens instead of this double bond migrating first this will migrate followed by migration of this. So what will happen silicon is known to stabilize carbocation or beta carbon so this is called beta silicon effect silicon carbon bond can be easily cleaved okay and particularly if it has to neutralize the positive charge of the beta carbon then this can be easily cleaved to get this dienol ether this upon hydrolysis will give you this ketone. So basically under normal natural cyclization you get more substituted double bond whereas if you use a silicon then you can also get less substituted double bond as the major product okay. Then there is another very interesting methodology is a tandem reaction where oxycope rearrangement followed by ring closing methodology it is almost like oxycope rearrangement followed by intramolecular Mukayama type aldol reaction okay so that also could be successfully used or has been used for the synthesis of trichonics. So for example this bicyclic compound if you treat with vinyl lithium if you treat with vinyl lithium you get this intermediate. Now if you look at this intermediate this intermediate is a classical oxycope intermediate classical oxycope intermediate so this will give you the corresponding 8-membered ring. So this will this 4-membered ring also will break and here it will form 6-membered ring so overall it will form an 8-membered ring. And if you look at this particular product in that process you are generated an enol TMS ether and also another double bond which is in conjugation with enol TMS ether okay so you can call this as vinyl augus enol ether. So this what will happen this lone pair or this silicon bond come here this will come and this will attack the carbonyl so that will give you the corresponding trichonics. So linear trichonics you have 5-membered, 8-membered. So the 8-membered ring cyclizes intermolecularly to give this linear trichonics okay. So what I will do I will talk about one more total synthesis as I mentioned that is about the synthesis of Corialing this is reported by Paul Wenders group and interestingly what he has used is again little bit extension of the method which I discussed in the last slide where you convert the 8-membered ring into 2 5-membered rings and this 8-membered ring he made using 4 plus 2 4 plus 4 cycloaddition. So 4 plus 2 will give 6-membered, 4 plus 4 will give 8-membered ring and this 4 plus 4 can be done using photochemical condition okay. How he successfully accomplished the total synthesis of Corialing using this 4 plus 4 cycloaddition and also the trans anolar cyclization which I briefly discussed. For that his starting material is methyl isobutrite so you take isobutric acid and methylate that upon treatment with LDA you generate anion here and that you conge with this allyl bromide substituted. So you introduce a diene so you have already introduced one diene as I said the key reaction is 4 plus 4. So now you have already a 4 pi unit you need another 4 pi unit. So you reduce the ester to corresponding primary alcohol and oxidize that under one condition to get aldehyde. So now use another 4 carbon unit that is the corresponding lithium add to this aldehyde you can see you got a tetraene okay diene here, diene here so a tetraene and this tetraene can undergo an intramolecular 4 plus 4 cycloaddition reaction okay. So the intramolecular 4 plus 4 cycloaddition it can undergo. So before that you have to protect the hydroxyl group, you protect the hydroxyl group as ma-meter then you do this photochemical reaction. So there are two ways to look at it one it undergoes 4 plus 4 cycloaddition or one can think about doing a 2 plus 2 between these two followed by co-prearrangement, 2 plus 2 followed by co-prearrangement to give this cyclo-octadiene okay it is a symmetrical compound cyclo-octadiene symmetrical compound is it symmetrical? No because you have two methyl groups mom group it is not a symmetrical compound. Nevertheless you can selectively do hydroboration on one of these double bonds which double bond will undergo hydroboration that too if you have to use 9BBN, so 9BBN is a bulky hydroborating agent so obviously it will not go to tetrasubstituted and it will go to the disubstituted and then even disubstituted there are two possibilities one this way it will add other one so this is A this is B so obviously the addition of hydroboration will take place by A and not by B the reason is BBN is bulky okay so this side you have already methyl group so it will not go to left hand side. So this upon hydroboration with 9BBN and oxidation with hydrogen peroxide will get the secondary alcohol and this secondary alcohol you can oxidize using PDC to get the corresponding ketone okay. Then you treat with BF338 so BF338 what will happen it will coordinate here and this double bond will come followed by elimination okay so when you have when the double bond comes here so you will have carbocation and that carbocation will lose a proton and you will get this okay. So now you have got the linear dry coating so few more functional group transformations should be done so what are the functional group transformation again you have to do hydroboration oxidation so you have a tri substituted double bond and if you do hydroboration oxidation this carbon you will get or you will introduce a hydroxyl group okay so you introduce a hydroxyl group and once you have this hydroxyl group oxidize with PDC you get a ketone and basically you need to introduce double bond here and you have to introduce a double bond both sides you have to introduce double bonds. So if you treat with mesyl chloride not only it will become mesylate but also it will undergo elimination to get the corresponding enone okay so once you have this enone basically you need a epoxide epoxide here and you need epoxide here that means you also have to introduce a double bond here so what you do before that you migrate this double bond here so potassium terributoxide you migrate the double bond then reduce the ketone to alcohol now if you treat with MCPVA you get corresponding epoxide okay then as I said you need an epoxide here and also this should be ketone so you oxidize the alcohol using PCC to get the ketone later a double bond should be introduced so that can be done in two steps first you generate enolate using LDA and that time what happens when you generate enolate with LDA the epoxide also will be open the epoxide also will be open so you get corresponding alcohol now this side you have the enolate that upon conching with this reagent where this will go to the corresponding carbon so this is nothing but oxidized version of diphenyl disulfide one of the sulphur is oxidized other sulphur is remaining as such the sulphide upon further oxidation with MCPVA it gives phenyl sulfoxide this upon heating it undergoes elimination of phenyl sulfenic acid to get the exocyclic double bond okay to complete the total synthesis you need epoxide here and you need epoxide here so this was done by treating with alkaline hydrogen peroxide you get both the epoxides and finally to complete the total synthesis what is required is removal of this mob group so that was done using HClTHF and that gave the final product that is Coriolin if you look at this molecule how many chiral centers are there 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 out of 11 core carbons if you look at the triquinane there are 11 core carbons in that 8 are chiral centers 8 are chiral centers see that is the beauty of this synthesis okay so highly selective total synthesis and here he has used the intramolecular cyclization as well as 4 plus 4 cycloaddition to get the strike unions. So he reported this total synthesis way back in 1987 and he started with methyl isobutrate and key step involved in this total synthesis are 4 plus 4 cycloaddition one can also give explanation that it can be a combination of intramolecular 2 plus 2 followed by another electro cyclization that is you have a diene 1, 5 diene that can undergo cycloaddition reaction and finally a trans-cellular cyclization takes place between the 8-membered ring diene the doctor diene so one of the double bond you oxidize to ketone then you carry out this intramolecular cyclization using trans-cellular cyclization protocol overall this total synthesis was accomplished in 4 longest linear steps but the yield was not very high so yield was about 0.23. Nevertheless if you look at the total synthesis of this molecule reported by Corioli it involved 3, 4 key reactions and this key reaction actually really worked well so that you could accomplish the total synthesis of Corioli. So with this we have completed the total synthesis of all the trichunanes whatever we plan to cover and next week onwards we will start talking about 6-membered rings and then slowly we will move to alkaloids and terpenoids so thank you.


Good afternoon everyone and thank you for being here for this presentation in how to use 3DT for clinical applications when assessing the left and right ventricles. I have no disclosures to discuss with the audience in regards of this presentation. The main objectives of these talks are to learn how to use the 3D data sets to assess the right and left ventricles using the Philips EPIC 7 and the GEBID E9 machines. We are going to start with the Philips EPIC 7. Using X-Plane we can assess simultaneously four walls of the left ventricle starting at the four chamber view. So in this example in the left side of the screen we are showing the left ventricle for chamber view where we have the inferior septum and the anterior lateral wall. And by doing X-Plane over this view we are going to generate a 90 degrees plane which is the one on the right side of the screen which is going to be the equivalent to your LB to chamber view where we are exposing the anterior and inferior wall. Both views are going to be simultaneously assessed and they are going to be separated by 90 degrees. Using X-Plane again if we go to the trans-gastric structure view of the left ventricle as in this example on the left side of the screen we can do the same thing. We place the X-Plane into the middle of the LB and then what we are going to be able to assess is simultaneously six walls of the left ventricle. In the example of the trans-gastric suraxis on the left side of the screen we have the anterior and inferior septum and lateral walls. And then in the right side of the screen you generate a plane that is 90 degrees more where you can see the anterior and inferior walls. The same thing can be done with the right ventricle. The parting from the modified four chamber view as we can see here on the left side of the screen we can see the septum and lateral or free wall of the right ventricle. When we place the X-Plane in the middle of the right ventricle we are generating a picture on the right side which is 90 degrees separated from it and you can simultaneously assess your infundibular wall. So in a single view you can definitely assess a lot of the function of the RV. From the trans-gastric suraxis modified view over the right ventricle the same thing can be done. So if we look at the left side of the screen we see the right ventricle trans-gastric suraxis. We put the X-Plane in the middle of the right ventricle and then we generate an image which is 90 degrees differentiating from the previous one. In the trans-gastric suraxis we can be the anterior, the posterior, the septum and the lateral or free wall of the right ventricle. While in the trans-gastric view at 90 degrees from the suraxis we can see the anterior and posterior walls of the right ventricle. So now using a 3D data set that includes the whole left ventricle avoiding the LBOT we can calculate the 3D left ventricle ejection fraction by using the function 3D advance. So once you use this function of 3D advance we are going to generate the image that we are showing you here in the example and four panels will show. So the first left upper panel represents the 2D image of the 4-chamber view of the left ventricle which was the original image where the 3D data set was acquired. So this is going to be named as Green Plane. As you pay attention there are a couple of lines on the Green Plane and we will be talking about those lines in a second. The second upper right part of the screen is showing what we call the red plane which will be equivalent to a 2-chamber view of the left ventricle with the anterior and the inferior wall. If we go to the bottom of the screen to the left side we are going to be generated the blue plane. The blue plane has a main difference between the green and red planes. Green and red planes are 2D images generated from a 3D data set. The blue plane is software generated from reconstructions from those multiple planes acquired with the matrix array and it's a view from the apex towards the atrium of the left ventricle. And in this example you can access the left ventricle because it's where we are going to be interested and you can see how the right ventricle is on the left side of the screen. Remember if you need to do measurements which is not the case of the EF I would recommend you to always do those measurements in the 4-chamber and the 2-chamber view because this blue plane is software generated. So it's never going to be as accurate as doing the measurements in the 4-chamber and the 2-chamber view which will be the green and the red planes. Finally on the bottom right side of the screen we are showing the 3D display of the LB which shows the 17 segments of the LB. So the first thing that we are going to be doing is in the green plane you need to select your red line which is the kivalent 2D chamber into the middle of the LB from the co-optation point of the mitrebal to the apex. The blue line needs to go to the middle of the LB crossing the right ventricle in the middle to get a perfect orientation. The same process is going to be repeated on the red plane. You want the green line which is going to be the kivalent to your 4-chamber view going from the center of the ventricle towards the apex and you want the blue line at the mid-level of the ventricle. Finally you are going to repeat the same process in the blue plane. In the blue plane you want to get the red line which is the kivalent to our 2-chamber view just from the anterior to the inferior wall in the middle and you want the green line crossing which is your 4-chamber view plane into the middle of the LB. When the planes are properly situated you will be selecting the end diastolic frame and it's normally automatically detected by the ECG but you need to be sure that you are appropriately situated. You can use the curves in the bottom part of the screen to rein yourself between the end diastole and end system. After that you will be asked to place the reference points in all the planes and we are going to start with the septum and lateral for the green plane. We are going to continue with the anterior and inferior with the red plane and finally we are going to ask you to position the apex. The apex can be positioned in the 4-chamber view in the 2-chamber view. There is no difference. The only recommendation that we get from the vendor is to be very consistent. If you select the apex in the 4-chamber view or the green plane in this example for end diastole do the same thing because next we are going to analyze the end systolic frame. If you selected in the red plane the apex over there then we consistent and in the end systolic use the same. So once finished with the end diastolic frame you are going to be prompt to select the end systolic frame. Once selected you will repeat the same process. You will be placed the reference points in the green plane septum and lateral and you will place the reference points in the red plane inferior and anterior. And the last part it will be the apex because in this example we select the apex in the green plane. We are consistent and we are selecting the plane at end systolic frame in the same green plane. Once all this is done you have the opportunity to select segmental analysis. And the software will automatically calculate for you the 3D Levantical Ejection Faction. And it will show you on the 3D display the performance of the 17 segments. It's a good idea to have a look when the software is showing you that the tracing on the green, red and blue plane to be sure that the endocardium was well traced. If you see in the upper right part you will be able to see your end diastolic volume calculated by 3D and systolic and ejection fraction plus the stroke volume. If you see on the bottom right part of the screen where you have the 3D displays you can manipulate this jelly bean. Show it from the basal, showing from the apex, showing from the inferior part and you can go with a hand and touch any of the 17 segments which automatically will give you the name of the segment and you will see how this segment is performing. The same thing can be achieved by using a strain or the formation from an applied force using technology which is called a speckle tracking. The type of strain that we will be measuring is longitudinal strain which has a negative value due to that we are departing from a baseline length L0 and will shrink the heart to a smaller length L1. The normal value is 20% or less. This can be done by using the four chamber view of the left ventricle. As in this example, the two chamber view of the left ventricle and the long axis view of the left ventricle. Finally, the bull size will be shown with the 17 segments. Anything red represent shrinking of the segments which means normal function as in this example. Anything blue means not shrinking rather increasing in distance between the points which means the skinnesis of the affected walls. As in this example with an abnormal ejection fraction and you can see the zones that are affected in blue. Another possibility is using speckle tracking technology without a strain to determine the left ventricular ejection fraction. This is an example of a four chamber view of the LV. And then you can use the same technology and do it in the two chamber view and in the short axis view of the left ventricle from the trans-gastric view. And you can get a complete study by this technology. From a 3D data set, as we did with the LV, we can use the same technology to calculate your right ventricular ejection fraction. When you use this technology using the same 3DQ advanced, you will be prompt to place the same markers designed for the LV analysis. Starting with the end diastolic frame. The same thing will be actually done in the end systolic frame, positioned yourself and later on your anterior and inferior. Finally, what we will get is an EF that will be calculated by the software. It's important to remember that by using a dedicated LV software to analyze the right ventricular function, we are not analyzing the infundicular wall of the right ventricle. There are other platforms as TomTech that can perform re-unright ventricular assessment, having an account infundicular wall of the right ventricle. When those software are used, the right ventricular ejection fraction and volumes calculated by 3D are very closely related with the cardiopagnetic resonance. Around R0.56 for the right ventricle ejection fraction, R0.74 for the end diastolic volume, and R0.84 for the end systolic volumes. 3D string can also be used to assess right ventricular longitude in other state. From a modified 4-chamber view, we are going to select chamber motion quantification in the tactile screen of the machine, and then you will be asked to place three reference points. As we can see in this example, it's at the base of the right ventricle and at the apex of the right ventricle. Then the software will analyze the segments for you. If you agree with the tracing and the tracing looks good, you need to approve the analysis. Once the analysis is approved, this is what is going to be generated. So we will focus only in the basal, mid, and apical segments of the free wall of the right ventricle. The right ventricle global longitude to the understrength from those three segments produces the highest correlation with cardiac magnetic resonance right ventricle ejection fraction when compared to the 3D ejection fraction of the RV. And it's a good predictor of RV dysfunction with an R of minus 0.69, as per Lu and colleagues. And again, we can use a speckle tracking without a strain, and in this case, for the right ventricle to determine the fraction and area change. So now we are going to do the same thing, but using the GE-BBD E9. Using multi-D is going to be equivalent to X-plane. In this example, we use it over the right ventricle, and we can see simultaneously the same walls that we were able to use when we were using X-plane with the Phillips. To be able to calculate the 3D left ventricle ejection fraction with the BBD, we will need to acquire a 3D data set. From this 3D data set, we are going to use the software of the BBD to go ahead and then position the reference place following the instructions. First, in end diastole, from the 2-chamber, 4-chamber, long axis view and short axis view. Once the reference points are positioned, you will be asked the same thing in end systole. And when that task is done, once this is done, this is the image that the software is going to generate. And you will be able to obtain from this analysis LB ejection fraction, stroke volume, and cardiac output. So if we want to repeat the same process with the right ventricle, the same thing can be done. But this time, the advantage is that the BBD offers us a dedicated 3D software specifically for the right ventricle developed by TomTech. Where again, you will be able to ask the position of your reference points as per the instructions. So that's what they are going to request from you. Once the points are situated, this is the image that is going to be provided by the software in the machine. And it will calculate for you the 3D right ventricle ejection fraction, the TAP-C, and the fraction area change using 3D technology. So finally, we are going to use 3D longitudinal strength to assess the RV. In the GE, we will start from a modified 4-chamber view. And then from this view, you are going to go to measures. And then from measures, you are going to use the function AFI, which is Automated Function Imaging. Once you select AFI, you will be prompted to actually select the Parasternal Long Access View, which is the one that performs the best assessment. Because remember, we are using dedicated LB strength software to analyze the right ventricular strain, longitudinal strain. So when that's done, you want to place the reference points. The reference points are going to be at the base of the right ventricle and at the apex. Once this is done, the software will automatically calculate the longitudinal strength for you. And again, remember, you need to neglect the right ventricle septal wall and assess the average of the 3 segments of the free wall. This will provide you with a big segment on the strain map. And the average of those 3 segments is your average of your right ventricle longitudinal strain. And again, remember, in the right upper part of the screen of this example, we can also see the regional strain curves of each segment represented. Thank you very much for your attention and we were happy to answer your questions in the Q&A.


Hello everyone, welcome to another video. What an exciting last few days. It's been we had the animal rights march here in London Amazing very exhilarating check it out. Just so many Like-minded people marching for animal liberation. Absolutely huge Estimated around 10,000 people Participated in this March 10,000 vegans absolutely massive, but There was one thing that was missing and Which which I found really hard to believe myself because I've actually been the target of mainstream media and Vegans have been targeted by mainstream media and it was just very very bizarre to me that when you actually London Vegan March 2018. Let's have a little look here. So we got the you know Let's just let's just let's just help it along and let's just say news because because where's the news here? We got you know veggies.org newsflare.com. Let's see newsflare I've never really I haven't really heard of that. Let's have a look newsflare newsflare, okay Never really heard of this one Never never actually heard of newsflare, but let's just keep going. Maybe maybe we'll see a massive huge a Huge one from the let's have a look. Let's just see the Guardian. They must have they must have no No, the army of first-time protesters grating getting ready to take on Trump. Okay, so that that's got nothing to do with vegans Let's just keep going through veg news veg news. So that veg news did a little thing on it I'm not really seeing much in regards to the news They should it should be all over the mainstream media. Where is it all? Where is it all? I mean This is what I just don't understand like we shut down the London streets. There was 10,000 of us like oh my god It was just like a free-for-all the news could have had a field day there Especially the Sun the Sun love putting out the anti-vegan propaganda The Sun love putting out the anti-vegan propaganda.  Well the vegan mafia. We were marching right here. Look at us right here the vegan mafia Wow.  There is Joey carves strong and the crew down there. This is a Liverpool crew.  Okay. Look how many of us there were here.  You would have seen a fire or something I mean not everyone not everyone even in the vegan community gets along you would have thought there would have been like police report or violent vegan attacks me either at restaurant or Farmer attacked by violent vegans because of you know vegan March with ten thousand Not one instance of violence imagine that There wasn't one fire No police were assaulted. There wasn't no violent uprising Sounds like a peaceful movement to me and then you've got all these articles.  You know why I think they didn't they didn't they don't feed into it. They didn't report on it It's because it doesn't fit their narrative of violent vegans Does it let they want that of the vegan mafia? But there's a peaceful March ten thousand of us if ten thousand of us marching through London Doesn't cause violent outbursts anywhere then Doesn't sound like a violent movement to me because there should have been at least one stick one instance of violence and very interesting all the All the media are cucking into the shadows. Isn't that interesting there? They're quick to report on you know anti-vegan propaganda But as soon as there's an uprising in ten thousand of us are marching through the streets of London Where are they nowhere to be found? No where to be found or what don't want to report on that Do you guys don't want to report on that? Do you very? very interesting very So that's well, that's mostly what I have to say about that. I mean it was amazing day You know vegans stand together for justice for animals and it was a really great to meet everyone and Just an amazing day an amazing day, but funny how the media don't really want to report on it. It's strange They could have said oh, you know, what what actually what could have they what could they have said? There was no instance of violence. It was a peaceful day.  What what? You know, I don't know Very interesting what they choose to report on and what they don't I mean the vegan topic has been quite a hot one in the media, but they definitely didn't want to report this So what do you guys think leave your opinions in the comment section down below? I don't know. I think it's quite suspicious quite suspicious indeed. Anyways guys Thanks for watching. Thanks for all your support and I'll see you all in the next video. Peace It's time for us as a people to start making some changes. Let's change the way we eat Let's change the way we live and let's change the way we treat each other You see the old way wasn't working so it's on us to do what we got to do to survive And still I see no change