Okay, thank you. Thank you. I would like to start thanking the organizers for this nice workshop and also my co-authors Noelia Otero and Marco Gaetani who couldn't be here and What I want to talk today is about some decadal predictions of the Sahelian rainfall so in the last and the previous two talks we've been already looking at the West African monsoon and in particular to the Sahel rainfall because of this Great trends with the drought and the partial recovery and and the idea of our work is Could part of this decadal variability this decadal signal could could it have been predictive? so There've been already several works and put here just an example, but they've already been at least I think Three at least or four works looking at decadal predictions of the Sahelian rainfall This example I'm putting here Is showing just for one model the Canadian that it shows some some head that it could have been predictable Though this is quite model-dependent one of the things is that the the previous works were focused on rainfall direct outputs, but Typically General circulation models the the atmospheric part at least is known to to have some problems depending on the model with the precipitation outputs while Dynamical variables are typically better reproduced so here put an example from a paper of Nijade and collaborators in 2011 in which they are showing it's just an ameep type of simulation in which you have the atmospheric model Driven by observed SSDs and in black and black Bars you can see the skill these are for different models the skill in terrestrial variability in captioning the internal variability of the Sahel And it's quite model-dependent and Some models are skillful some others are not but when they look at dynamical variables. This is represented here by the white Bars and they typically show better performance So the idea of a work we was to try to predict Sahelion rainfall, but instead with the direct rainfall outputs looking at dynamic variables So that was the main aim starting the skill we focused on on the CME 5 models on summer And we also evaluated the additional skill coming from the initialization if it makes sense to do decadal predictions, so Regarding the data we used we looked at CME 5 Simulations to experiments the decadal handcast or decadal predictions with I guess this maybe belongs more to tomorrow But we've already had some talks about decadal predictions last yesterday. So in the CME 5 What they do is every five years they Issue a model prediction that last that runs from four Ten years so in 1960 they they launch to the the the model and it runs up to 1970 and 1965 they do the same and it runs up to 1975 and so forth. That's that's the core predictions And the important thing is that they have all four things but they are initialized This is in 1960 they were feed a fed with the actual state of the of the atmosphere and of the ocean mainly and Then just to compare if this makes sense or not to all this effort of modeling We we compare the results with historical simulations that have all four things but are not to initialize So they are typically coupled runs that started in Purdue in pre-industrial times and typically 1850 and they just run on And we compare with observations with precipitation observations and re-analysis data so as I was talking Same before we wanted to to Particularly look at the potential of using wind fields So for the West African monsoon it has been shown and there are many studies I got here one from Fontaine and collaborators in 1995 in which they show that there is quite a link of the strength of the monsoon with the Sonal jets in particularly I'm going to highlight here two of the jets the West Southerly wind monsoons and the tropical easterly yet. This is a plot of sonal winds and this is Precious levels, so this is up and this is down and this is latitude So in this paper of Fontaine they they show that when you have a beta or strong monsoon you have More rainfall over the of the Sahel and that typically comes with a stronger Tropical easterly yet and a stronger West westerly south monsoon So they define an index which is called West African monsoon index whammy and it's the modulus at low levels minus the wind sonal wind at high levels and This in definitions is independent from rainfall, but it's quite related to rainfall When you have a stronger tropical easterly monsoon jets and a strong westerly southwest winds you have more Sahelian rainfall and in our work we Chose the actual region where to do the averages of these quantities depending on the model and by applying and Combine you have analysis of high levels and low levels So these are just some results These are for the To re-analysis product we used the Low-level Sorry the low-level The The modulus of the winds sorry to couldn't the modulus of the winds had low levels From Edda an insect that go with the first combining uf pattern and here is For some of the models we analyze several we analyze 14 I just put here an example so you can see that the the stronger monsoons in the in the first Mode are depend a bit on on the they just said you analyze So we chose the area depending on this first mode and this first mode in the upper levels goes with increased tropical easterly jet and And and also in the in the models and I don't show it here, but it typically goes with increase Sahel rainfall in the observations so What about the skill of the models in this plot so that I guess we'll see more tomorrow I'm plotting one of the measures of skill which it's the anomaly correlation coefficient here in the y-axis And each color is for one model of the out of the 14 and we also did a multimodal Ensemble so now we have 15 and then in the X Axis I'm plotting different lead time so in the first column the first points are Showing what's the anomaly correlation coefficient for the One to four years lead time and the second is for the two to five years lead time Etc. And this panel is for the decal and handcast and this one is for the historical Simulations so in general we can see better scores for the decal simulations. That's that those that are in the slides Here I want to stress that I'm comparing the whammy the from the simulations with the observed Sahelian presentation index from CRU data In general that some models that stand out as statistically significant at least in some in some lead times which are Written here and some of them we also tested but and they were not they didn't give Skill when looking at their rainfall outputs instead of the whammy index so We also thought about this was an idea of one of the reviewers, which I think he suggested to look also at probabilistic scores The only thing is that we didn't have given the Experimental setup of see me five you don't really have that much data So this is just an average score taking into account the 14 models and all the lead times So typically we chose to follow a tercel category just trying to predict above normal normal and below normal categories and You typically want a big a strong heat rate This is you want to issue an alarm alarm rightly You want to predict it and you want a low false alarm rate. This is when when you issue This a lot of false alarm rate is a fraction of times that you issued wrongly an alarm so you typically plot both the heat rate Against the false alarm rate and you want to be over this this part of the you want to to have highest course of the heat rate Rather than of the false alarm rate So this is typically Built for different thresholds of probability and then you have your your your rock curve So we can see for the the canal that you typically for the above and below Categories you are above the diagonal. So you're having quite some skill You can also measure this as the as twice the area underneath the curves Between the curves and the diagonal and if you do this that you have this course here We we see the same information, but I can also show for the historical ones that you you typically have less less skill Yeah, so Sorry, what I showed before was testing our whammy index against observing Rainfall, but we also thought of testing our whammy ingress against the whammy in observation so we thought of using the Ensep and era 40 reanalysis. So when you do the same Scores that I showed before but with Ensep you typically find a decrease of skill But when you do it with era 40, there is a complete loss of skill So we looked a bit into it. Why would we have this loss of skill? What's happening here and To make a long story short the main problem was coming from the modulus at low level So here I'm plotting for in time the Anomalies the standardized anomalies of rainfall from CRU data, which is in in black and then the modulus of the wind coming from the Ensep in green and from the era 40 in Let's call it orange These are standardized anomalies as I was saying and it's the decal component So it was some low frequency filtering with a running mean and we can see that after Let's say 1997 era 40 modulus drops down and this gives you very This gives you a decrease of the skill that you can find when comparing with this data set and Last we were thinking of what are the perspectives because we have these decal predictions. So what is expectable from these in the near future Unfortunately, not all of the simulations or not all the models gave the 2010 initialized simulation, but what we had what we had I Plotted here the in different lines, but I want you to focus on this last part. It's a different subset of Multimodal ensemble means but they are both showing a slight increase with respect to the years before this would be the 2011 to 2015 Means so with this I conclude The first idea is that we could have predicted part of the decadal variability of Sahelian rainfall using initialized simulations the Because the skill of the initialized is generally better than the historical one. However, this is quite model dependent not all models are skillful and Some for some models using the dynamics instead of the rainfall outputs can give you Increased skills. So we really recommend a two-fold approach if possible looking at both rainfall and dynamic variables and We should be cautious when using a low-level winds in in era 44 decadal purposes and just that the respective for next coming years is a bit of a slightly recovery of Sahelian rainfall with respect to the last Once so think I think you all for your attention and I accept any comments and questions you may have


Welcome to the AI for Good Global Summit and I'm delighted to be joined by Juan Levista who's the Chief Data Scientist for Microsoft. Good to have you here. Thank you, thank you. So what's the importance of a summit like this one for you? So part of my job is I also lead the AI for Good Lab. Our job is to help organizations using AI to partner with organizations including the UN to help them some of the problems. So for us the AI for Good Summit represents like a lot of that community. When you say lab, I know people who are watching will be fascinated. What is a Microsoft AI lab? So we have researchers working like AI experts and data scientists. And these, like what we do is we partner with organizations that have such a matter of expertise. And our expertise we bring the AI talent to those problems. We partner with those sorts of matter experts for example in global problems from human like health to sustainability to accessibility. We partner with those organizations and what we do is we bring the AI part for those problems. And talking of that, so we often talk about AI for good. Yes. Where do you play around that? So in part of our projects are the like what we call AI for good is we have there's a there are problems. Let's say one problem is food security, for example. And our job is to partner with organizations that have such a matter expertise in food security. Let's say with the World Food Program. And what we do is we have with a final project. Let's say one of the projects we have is to try to understand like whether a country will have food security issues or not. For example, using higher resolution satellite data. We can use AI on top of that. And we can partner with them to understand what they how is that data can help them. Interesting. Any other example? So for example, one of the projects that we have is really nobody or prematurity. This is in health. But you know the prematurity is a leading cause of blindness in children. And it's a disease that didn't exist for decades ago in the world. And now we are seeing an exponential growth. And the reason why the end exists is because this happened for very small babies. And these babies wouldn't survive before. Now because there's thanks to medical improvements, a lot of these babies are surviving. But now that's driving an increase in ROP cases. One thing the summit office is moving ahead with AI is governance and regulations. Where are you on that? So in the case of Microsoft, we believe governance and regulation plays a fundamental role for any technology, including AI. So I don't work on that space, but Microsoft is. Okay. And as you look to the future, the impact of AI, 10 years from now, it's so difficult to predict. I guess you've got some ideas. So I think that overall AI will continue increasing the productivity of people basically. And what we see is a fundamental huge potential on how AI can help society from multiple, multiple problems or multiple projects, particular in countries where we are seeing a decrease in the amount of people basically where you need to have increasing productivity. We strongly believe that AI will play a fundamental role to increase that productivity. Okay. Interesting. So we'll touch base in 10 years and see where we are in terms of productivity. We're on Lovista, Microsoft's Chief Data Scientist, and we'll have much more coming up on AI for Goods at Global Summit. Stay with us.


All right. Hello guys. Welcome back to another stream Let's get started.  I'm seeing news We've been pushing down closers here. We see clothes Come in spike high. We hit the resistance that we talked about yesterday At the one The 131 point 17 We had a resistance. We hit a railroad track. Basically one came in Trapped some liquidity second came in still trapped more liquidity pulls it down And next candle just smashes it all the way down Runs runs away with it and they slowly come across people willing to short You mark it gets rid of the long inventory. So you're seeing it spiked down. We still have this area of large cells shows here So that's up to there you want to look for if we come and spike it one more time Hit it past this level here After taking that After taking this level down there That's something that you might want to see and you might echo that with bitcoin Again, we do have a lot of news coming in In the way of Just minutes and everything else Looking at bitcoin stupid Looking at bitcoin it's seep smashing itself down as well Comes in gives you a nice flip. So and this is coming in again On uk time new k uk use news embargo two o'clock We had a bunch of uk news. Uh, if we go in here refresh this We had a bunch of uk news you see inflation rate at that 10 percent for uk It's insanely high Yeah, it's uk that was being really bad We'll see what us numbers ends up being and what we end up getting for the u.s market at 10 Actually, there's not there's not too much terms of from here and speech And the main would be the minutes at 2 p.m But nevertheless This move here takes all the shorts Pulls it down. We've saw that it pulls it down Feeling poor. Yeah, bro. If your tenor becomes uh Yeah, man, I know man. It's a template celebration bro. UK just out here And us you guys thought you guys had it bad My tenor became a niner Now you just call it a 1099 You call that a niner So if you mark out that from a range as you can see both sides, uh came in Pretty range-free. Uh, I mean considering that we had Uh, basically two days of nothing Wednesday super pivotal use news as a catalyst to move the markets We came in you could see how this hangs outside of its range pulls up I think at this point just to find this lower lower third as as the range just because Of how we're moving and there we go. We have more of it inside and even still we have that reactiveness Uh there just because I mean it just makes more sense. Maybe if we just grab those two closes instead as well Could be a bit more better Oh, it's a bit better a little bit more better. Jesus. I know that I don't know English But that's pretty much what you're doing. You got your consolidation. You got these areas here You see that just pull in basically just three Three days. I mean two days of nothing your long was off the break of this Pretty boring long to be honest, uh, and there was several points where you could have just gotten out Early and missed this entire move Uh, and you probably would be right in doing so because let's say you missed you're sleeping during this period You're back down and you see that just collapse under unless you have like a trading stop And that's the only reason you'd be fine in And I forgot to do something. Uh, oh no, don't open up the xbox app I've got to pull out chat box Do There we go Now I can see that there we go Much better Okay And that's why we're here. Why not listen to music? But yeah, I mean you just been avoiding through the whole stage of trading. I mean, it's just I mean, it's sometimes it's nice to say that you're taking no trace today just because The market isn't giving you anything Or anything really good like Giving you something, but it's just not good There we go much Better. Yeah, that much better You guys have something so it's not dry.  Even the four hours you look you're looking at this level the next level possibly just reverse onto that Let's look at the spot book. Let's see if there's anything good. I mean it's short through the 44 500 Came in not much liquidity here. I mean we're accumulating a lot of uh spot buying interesting CVD Pretty much. I mean it's it's moving like a rat spastic, but it's still going really high Uh, so we might end up. Uh, let's see what futures are saying futures Wow, definitely a player divergences where futures and spot is going A lot more spot No, just a lot of people just spot buying people in futures just getting wrecked and shorting It's like Monday high Uh, not uh high not for no reason. I haven't been trading anywhere near it. Uh, it's weak expecting through this Monday's high. Let's see. Yeah. Monday's high is really far. That's what you're saying I mean, we do have I mean we had the static wall as soon as we dropped back down here. We had this entered in here That's something and it's really big like it is really big. We see that 1400 And we have it here as well same thing but Again the biggest one. I don't think they try to resist.  I think it's on chart range. Yeah, again same same reason.  So you potentially want to do go up higher And you maybe look for one more swipe high before we drop but in essence I mean We ran out the high side of the first uh prior to Prior to dropping so if this if this hangs we go up But if it doesn't I mean you should be expecting down anyway I mean it'll be short through this. It's just like we left this up. I mean, it's just short It's they didn't really want to go up any higher. They got the liquidations that they wanted here And I think that's the main reason Do I go high when when you just like say, okay, I got everything there's no reason to go any higher Let me go drop that back down Yeah, spoke buying insane amount of spot buying came in here.  What am I gonna do? sort of thing But I mean nothing's too easy about this. We've got the Tuesday low here Coming in there. So it'll be a ton of liquid to release as soon as we hit that Uh, two o'clock is ESC is probably where you're set setting your timer to see where well one o'clock actually an hour before to see how the Other FOMC minutes come out There's a lot It's a heavy news day. So if you're just not feeling yet, I'd recommend taking this one off as well Just come in uh, probably tail end Just when when all this bullshit's finished just because it's just not nice trading this shit because I mean You can either make it really profitable and and you can call it a week Or you get you get f in the a and that's what most happens to get f in the a because you guys are like That's why you're sort of uh looking for that Sorry, but my mind is just on I don't look at yes now. Yes. I mean look at that They've brought a driving price all the way down to here See my my my screenshot button's broken. I can't that's why like I haven't been screenshoting as much Just like because it's now it's natural like two steps and I can't be asking that extra two steps for you guys So yeah, I mean you have these live streams. I mean But You have this area here came in the wall. He knew he was going to target target this down Then sent up on this expected to drop but I think ends up absorbing into these walls spiking Coming up into here whips pouring down and we probably might see that with bitcoin as well if that ends up happening So probably something you're expecting Really, it's pretty low. So it has some I mean worst case he does this it does this Yeah, hi a little and keeps dropping you can keep dropping a fine either As long as you find yourself and if anything it would just drop Below here and you can see how the taking patterns ends up just being where our short volume was Where heavy like just in between they just oh, there we go. It's inside the other one as well. So I mean worst case we push up to here pull back down best case Is try swiping for the higher targets But with uh, yes moving down like this into this large bed. We could possibly look for it to uh move up expulsively Because again, we did it as a day with a lot of short tis. You can see just a large spike everything sort of moving down in the pre market And pre new york rather We've got small amount of advice, but most of it. It's just been negative sentiment based off of us I'm in uk data Look for this try to spike it up try run out of this I think it's it's too large to say No too possibly So it's just one of the things where liquidate and pull back down Uh, if anything, it'll be above the stop here It'll run out of these I think I think these are all all but dead Too probably looking for that to be on open or 830. I mean, I know Yeah, you've got 30 minutes until 830. Uh, not actually, there's not too much in terms of news wise Let's see you we kill Yo I mean bitcoin just looks weird man look at that That's the area here again back to this area being going to turn the short so you can mark that 2400 to 37 Day 650 let's just say sake of argument It's short I'm probably want to get rid of the lungs. I mean buys here This ends up being native short, but I mean you see these heavy sort of buy coming in just out of nowhere Someone's saying, you know It's cool. I should not but that's coming from this area anyway, so if we get higher Uh retail sales. Yeah, I think they'll be bullish. Let's just go ahead So this is this essentially the explanation Uh, we're expecting So highest value just means uh sales Sales is going up and you want sales to going up be sure spending in the economy Because if you don't have if you have a period of not spending that's probably likely indication of recession If anything interesting Yeah, stuff like they's got building Michelle's clothing general stores. So sort of luxurious stuff or Stuff that people don't really need Uh, dropping. I'm surprised building Michelle's dropping Uh Really? Mr. US though In a lot of things that should be built Uh, sorry just think switch to look at these numbers Yeah, you can't just have it really bad I'm bloody terrible The year and year inflation just look at that. It's Still recover from 4.2 percent october It's from six percent previous periods slightly above my forecast It's when eight percent is higher to read since February 1982 There's rows housing and utility 20 percent versus 19.6 percent in june Recreational and cultures five percent four percent non-alcoholic beverages 12 percent Yeah, drinks are insane like a one pound drink is now like, uh Like one one fifteen like they they they they already accounted for 15 percent inflation bitches Ah Outer restaurants that eight cent on the other hand transportation prices is Wow 14 on transportation competitive previous months consumers Were up point six percent below point eight percent in june And above this forecast So yeah I actually are the insane to think about it just patients at 10 percent Again, it's just i'm not mainly it's mainly housing and utilities like electric Electric bill in the house is what 400 a month for me It's like uh, fuck we're Everything's expensive nowadays. It's all expensive men. I'm really not feeling I'm actually really not feeling today. She's having a lot of sick Uh, it's because I just wake up and see if he's looking bearish. Let's just look at the numbers and Even call it a day. I don't think I need to say too much today When market long, uh, probably on new york When new york decides to go down, I guess So when you when you sort of and when you when you see the first move swipe down the second move will swipe up if anything Uh, no, uh, I missed it. Like I've I've been just sleeping recently She's been out of my just been my sleep schedule has been off recently. We're like we're sleeping at five six a.m Well, that's me trying to go to sleep. I mean getting sleep actually Well, like I had to better like two a.m I get to manage to sleep at like five a.m Because like I just have been suffering from insomnia So it's like that Yeah, uh, actually there's a four-hour wedge. Oh, yeah Well, oh, yeah, we talked about this last time. Yeah Let's get the spot there out There we go. There's one two I mean depending on how you draw. I drew there's this area here They'll probably short this area So probably might do something like that right below these liquid see points here. I guess Try to look here. It's got some time mark.   It's not about training. It's about surviving And if that is if you survive by taking no trades then so be it take no trade just surviving and the thing because sometimes Yeah, I've you've probably heard this a lot. It's just no trade.  You're like, oh, yeah, it's like whips or whips or pins. I mean Yeah I mean, there are some nice points, but I mean generally it's just not a nice area to look at I mean, it's a long here, but like It was just from this one though. You should take off of this But you saw this like I want to be out You see like all of this is just not nice It's not nice Maybe you just need a different time. So I mean even then look at that That's something I want to be looking at please And that's when you usually hold like and that's why I don't I don't take everything off the table Like let's say you got a short off from here You're holding that. It's that cool. You know what I don't want to deal with this noise Let me keep that on a level keep stop above a certain point here or wherever it may be coming to like, yeah Let's just say here after that after some time You get knocked off here, but yeah, it's you're still happy I would have took that SFB for those highs are closed But those But I thought it was a break of my structure I don't know it was a news release 2 a.m. EST is news embargo left for uk As you can see we're going through that And why is it because it's seven o'clock Let's go into uk time It's seven o'clock the uk time. That's news release this this candle here That's embargo. It's an hour I think it was the seven o'clock was the eight o'clock. I think it was eight actually Yeah, eight o'clock newsy. So they're pending pulling it up news release Nice time to trade bitches But 2 a.m. EST though, I don't think yeah No, it'd be 2 a.m. 36. I'm being confused. No, yeah, it's seven o'clock. That's news Yeah, that's when news comes out because eight o'clock is when you're traveling to Uh UK news, uh, they had uh For inflation at pee pee At pee pee very small very big Very big pee pee Very small pee pee It's time to get working now, which is probably not the best Ah, it's but I mean is Again, you're probably looking the same thing here. You see this came in swipe time I think I've entered here to put your stuff here. You've been fine Uh, you're probably looking to see the range See where this comes into mark 50 25 50. You'll probably find from there So that's 25 that's that's 25 And you can go with that depending on which which one we open up Let's say this range drags to here. You're probably looking to drag into these ones But in general, which is these two are your first sort of marker You're probably marking it From here. So I think from this point, it'll be somewhere here You're giving yourself some leeway from there or even here You can choose whatever you want to do If you want to round or you want to dat if you want to round up or down Always recommend rounding up or down Oh and You want to be as further away you want to give yourself that extra buffer just in case you get swiped out I mean we're moving pretty low So if anything get this get high lower low pull up You're looking for the lower low to execute in accordance with this You're looking to try the man until almost here Uh, you want to see that happen was uh You just want to see how it was just as you can see going up slam down go lower See where it goes See where it hits up into then you're looking for it to rise to maybe try hit up higher. Yeah, I mean Oh There we go When you fail through this level if flip this resistance as you can see I mean support if this doesn't report support into resistance and drops it You'll probably stop out a bunch of people here drop it further Uh, I like closes. I don't I know you know what it depends Uh, you look at this and you say is this reactive or is this more reactive? I mean, it's very shallow But it's it's this is more reactive it relative to this point. I mean you could have both are fine. It's just The most reactive uh reactionary point. So for this one you would say this around this area and call it And it's most more reactive relative to everything else in the mix It's just don't be a stickler basically. Oh, yeah, I'm pretty gender fluid. I'm joking I'm joking. I'm a joking. Okay. That's me Yeah, it's always got a large drop if it drops below this And then you're for our area here. You see that curve you should probably check probably drop down further But that's it bitcoin drops I I know I always pretend just trading bitcoin. I mean yes, I'll hit that area here drop back down Uh, 20, I don't think we get back to here 23 10 Yeah, yeah, I'm going bitcoin bitcoin is a shitcoin. Let's not let's not talk about her Uh, so we have these numbers.  I'll cut down.  No Is there something for the volume distribution in the candles that make it closer or make Makes it close. Yeah, it'll be where the volume is Most of the time it'll be dependent on the type of candle you get So let's say the wick is more Uh, longer than the body Usually it's somewhere in the wick, but that's that's really hard to tell If it's just like full fat, it's just on beyond the clothes the higher volume It'll be distributed nicely But I mean you always have software you can use to do that And if you have software that can show you volume Just mark the volume area instead of marking caring about a high lows and closes because that that shit is for retail To worry about you only care for the period of time where the uh highest volume uh node was And that's your support and resistance. That's what I'm essentially doing with uh Transfider Think about it Really just marking off the highest higher volume nose Okay, uh 30 3310 2310 40 Comes into the slow of the consolidation area fills out this void here that we have From price moving really fast Uh, even on the hour you've got this super fast moving that way Feels that in just yeah 41 40. Yeah 41 around this area top of this range If we drop, I mean we still have this low here to try to consider Just below maybe we've already reacted on it accordingly But it's just like area here. So slight buffer we have to play with here before we go We can drop further. So I mean we've got this and we can hang around for a bit pull up Or we can just go down fill out everything and then pull back up It's probably your options I mean you're short with here if you missed it you missed it. You're not looking too aggressively short this At least I'm not I'm usually just wait just wait it out to see where your lungs will possibly be Uh, if you can't get along off just look for a re-trade uh higher So let's say if price tries to climb up higher look out for that as a potential short down maybe Uh, if anything that's when you're short Because I mean you don't want to be chasing green or red candles and you're moving To that moving to the beat of the marker maker If I have time machine Uh, no That's xbox why is xbox showing up You see all those bodies coming back down hopefully They turn a wider array of candles. I don't like it. I mean it's wide in this but it's just not like Doing the wide array of candles coming down.  That's your by-model Uh, try your time it is 14 minutes till we get 8 30, uh, so we get some it should get something out of this Let's wait for it No, after we get those data, I'll probably call it a day And it's just been like out of it recently and it's just what it is Please would be And it's a good time to be out of it because the market's just been pretty much BS, man Oh, there we go. We're already getting we've had heads move time. So we probably might get good data Just off of this move here That's Bitcoin moving ahead of time Just liquidating everything it's very aggressive This is ahead of The news release. So we've got 30 minutes. I mean 15 of 13 still 12 really, uh, but You want to see this probably might want to see The candle close and buy the candle close if anything, uh, just off of this And you want to keep it very tight, uh, maybe wait for a bit more lower Uh, it's just like patient though There we are we're on three minutes.  Come on. Come on. Come on, you hope Come on, you hope give me something and give me something to work with Looks like it's coming in trying to feel out this candle Still looks like you'll potentially go down Come on man As you can see this kind of just coming up look for it to fill out this area here drop it back down Probably want to be on futures But we have that right large red door Feel out this candle probably go down a bit further I want to see it try to at least take out one of these walls here Anything if you can achieve that potentially looking good Another 10 minutes left. We've got a wall That's right. That's what you should see wherever you guys can see the color difference There we go. I want more chill music.  You're looking for one more swipe lower 830 is coming up. It's probably looking for something good.  I don't I don't know why it's just it's just been really strong recently Hopefully today's the day there you go starts moving down again Looking for it to drop by down again This kind of just looking to fill out this area here From the looks of the those those where those wicks went Again, you look for extension lower take out the liquidity take out the range And this becomes 25 perfect. This is 25 from here For another 25 from here will be something like it can't be us drawing it out. It's just be there So, I mean if we were to reach here, I doubt we do because news Actually, no, it's too quick. It's over the eighth nine o'clock. Actually eight thirty nine nine 30 is so it's perfect on open Open he speaks. Ah good that in dismiss miscreants Ten o'clock. They have a lot more data. They just have everything coming in for this. I mean, but it's just like I mean Yeah Crude all the stock is that crashing That question that the crashing Oklahoma delivery half rose barrels into Oh See they're trying to get that We're just looking to trade this you're not looking for biases off of this Uh, this is gonna be really rough Seven more minutes. Let's see where we where we come up at Where we come short on to I think I think now is the time to probably close some trades if anything Or put stops up just in case it just it just Does a dildo candle all the way to the moon because there's always it's always nice to capture some profit even on like massive Swipe ups, but You can always be short later And it would just be a mistake like oh man, I had it in profit for this long and it went up and swiped out Oh my god, I feel like an idiot There we go. We're finally looking to come down into hit these walls Yeah, I mean Yeah, I mean is what it is like you don't want to like unless you Can know the direction and and the direction tends to I mean from From my side, it looks like potential upwards momentum from this news That's potentially good news I mean at this point, I think We have some good news rally a bit drop it down spike it down Whips basically whips, so I mean like but you're looking to buy the second end of the whip Like for instance, I mean For instance, this one this way When up gauge gave you that slight move up to this area just didn't didn't break this area though I mean nice little Dogey couch or a spinning top to end the whip come on four more minutes T-minus four Or Spade nail X I want to see how deep it goes. I mean, it's minus 6k already Let's see where spot is that now? I mean it's dropping fast as you can see just insane drop already It's lost 400 here So probably looking closer to reversing this then then I thought Or trying correct against this because it's look how fast this is. Well, that's a lot of a lot of bits picked up for free here Uh, I'm seeing to think about and everything here just short this entire session. It's just been short Oh my god Slightly They want to hit a bit in the bed a bit a bit deeper Laying it drop Actually, no they're adding to it. So it's interesting Up Like getting some ice Yeah, see we're getting some random ads You see there's some random answers. That's what you call iceberging.  Let's get online with fries Now the next handle like we look for it if it comes up just to hear pins out goes down spreads lower But I mean, I think that happy people was open the range here if anything We see we see what they end up doing with range One more minute. Oh Oh Oh, we're getting jealous Taking her to the swimming this will be very sort of like lost if they do this okay let's go okay it should be moving now why news ain't coming yeah it's coming just not here junkiness dirty there we go I mean no growth in retail sales so there's a nine I mean yeah a series of no sales okay that's fair oh let's see if you can get that swipes I miss oh yeah hello I mean excluding automobile yeah I mean sure excluding that's pretty good day I guess if you're looking at that yeah I mean I think it's mainly for cars and stuff that's dropping it down but excluding cars month-on-month being growing which is great because they're expecting it that's really good data retail sales oh yeah retail starts grown like financially from a year and year so I mean previous years I mean that's a COVID area I mean it's just Jesus yeah that's like accession pulling back up so we're seeing some level of growth supported by the government so it's decent decent news looks like he's in large pop I think they're waiting for the Fed Batman speech we'll see see what we get out of him let's see if he says any dumb shit it does then we're probably looking for friendship that's not 9 30 if anything this just sets is setting up with it so go up go down go up go down so we get the couple of minutes or an hour it is an hour between the two number who drop yeah it would not be it's pretty splitting terms data yeah so we got an hour to set up so we got our set up if anything we go up in the hour we hit back into this he speaks it goes down pulls back up and cuz that will also be open if anything so that's probably what you're looking for we're seeing oh yes just slamming down some down ahead of time I want to see this come up slowly got a lot of short side in profit an insane amount of shorts are in profit let's see these guys are taking out like instantly on this bit but I doubt it so a lot of shorts in profit so definitely look to see these guys get get greedy and just go whoop take that bitch actually no don't do that actually that I'll be counter-attuitive to my trade please I'm sure yes from 31 yeah I realized what I was saying I'm like no I don't want it to short I don't want it to go up I want it to go down I'm in the same boat pretty lost short yes a that's nice nice one what do you take yeah what's the reason for taking that trade okay you my reason my reason was I just felt like it oh you gonna stop me I felt like it targets target zero hell yeah man always target zero yeah damn looks like you had a more effect on yes might look first snap back more aggressively yeah if it starts moving out out of sync okay nice they'll be using magic numbers cool yeah because it's a valid reason to take that out pull it back up push trap small equity here push like down so fickle pump who fickle pump woman they do fickle pump oh yeah they work bitch they look like a bitch I like how moving average it's a lot faster it's probably one of my favorite moving averages I don't know about for MacD because MacD is just a garbage it's just garbage because you'll have to always tweak settings any time you move from back and forth one another but that's what that's what I'm gonna leave off on in terms of you can wait for it to clear wait for the range set if anything just based on this and based on past experiences this does this it will go up but you'll probably might do this from was the news release just what trick you guys out so that's something you gotta be wary of yep the Fed has little brains yeah that's funny so we've got a lot of unga bunga coming out 930 and 2 EST so Fed minute FOMC minutes are probably the most important out of the day so if we start coming up to it and you want always like you'd like to do the opposite if anything you get some whipsaw wait and just come you can't you have the climax to the news and your other news does the opposite climax of the news got the news climax of the news got you got some news it might not be always perfect but again you're expecting up potential just like small scalp up it's like high leverage push justify that if it goes up high it goes up high and you're not arguing was that and then you're dropping that down if you're at 930 you're closing that 930 to see if there's a potential to swipe the range low at 10 at yeah until like 10 so 945 10 you want to see those kind of makeup but again potentially look for that swipe up operate sort of correct yourself out of this area I see where yes is that yes is oh no yes yes it's slowly coming back up so far that's all one looks like they're having too much fun playing with this but in terms of longer term being this why like longer term view just because you can see why hasn't been here in terms of courtesy wise and what's just popped up you saw just a large just get eaten pull back up just looking for it to be bullish some some set levels and it's ambulance just cause this is just a slow bleed that means slow these sharp move up get some get some retail guys in pull it back down maybe touch the view up if anything if we're lucky at 2042 87 get that back down from there and push up in crypto as an experimented traditional trader yeah I have a lot of resources posting discord in one form or another it's a number one join the discord and number two get some crack number number three question mark number four profit yes I've joined the discord it's on the bottom left in terms of my screen it's just if you just type it inside movement on the discord you should find it like it's going here and going going join itself and you just try to get inside I've got new keyboard man in oh yeah just type it inside me when you can join this you can join myself a girl a lot of resources just here and there your books you go website you got entire archive of stuff I would just go through some of this stuff as just a rule of thumb but mainly there's like Taylor so you can go through I would recommend the the BTMM series that's a really fun series to watch through there's just a lot of things to do I mean just have a gander at the discord stuff learn order flow if you if you're if you're coming off of the see if you're coming off traditional markets the only sort of change you got adjust for is it being 24 hours so other markets affecting it and the other market cycles so yeah there's a lot of resources there and then it's just free I've got something like the VIP only and that's like a whole you know it's just because I'm feeling border let's let's find it yeah let's find that the recovery as I put stuff here I represent here so let's jump to this you got stuff here there you go yeah you made into one word take what is it make I made into it makes it one word okay cool there you go so those who don't have it yes those are pretty nice there's a lot in there and if you want my recommendations just asking the discord people give you recommendations they already know what I like there's also books and stuff there so if you go into down back into the free area here you have a bunch of books you go and click into this one and you can just search for stuff I have a lot of recommendations into this one yeah there you go all the way up here this is like I recommend psychology and stuff like that I mean it's just the same shit yeah sure but check down for a day XTT is just one of these coins I used to trade a lot which is now is just like what's this pre-launch shit what the fuck hello is this what is man yeah yeah it also called no it's just got courses from like a bunch of areas like I managed to get someone to give me like a bunch of like just a ton of shit and it just but it's just bundled with everything that you people want wanted to get pirated from course of course wise so it teach you pull it'll teach you how to pull basic you teach you how to sex basically make sure you don't share that out too much because otherwise it gets taken down and that is just uh it can't be asked put it back up once it gets taken down you dig you dig I mean it's pretty much aggressively on the highs miss out on the weekly target pulls back in took out the liquidity up here push it back down probably your safe bet is waiting for it to try and trade internal candles I mean but it's just like garbage in terms of movements but you're looking for a try and maybe turn this trade down to see if it does end up doing that because most likely you'll bleed into the 8 1.83 around this area is probably your way of saying you know what you're probably fine if this pushes down sorry swipe this liquidity point out maybe we get a swing at this in terms of a push push pull back down but again I can't like in this consolidation area if you console if it comes back into this you could potentially buy into it but other than that there's no point buying into whatever this is now it's just looks like a B formation high more times that will come down okay I'm gonna end things here we've been we've been going for the a lot of time and I know that sounds pretty weird but like I mean we were done waiting for what we wanted to wait for now it's time for you guys to trade the markets so you guys know what to expect hopefully oh that okay she has a piece


I think we've got a tough case of what I call Trump fatigue. Hate him or like him. Donald Trump has become something of an albatross to the stock market. He may claim that his team may claim that the market's ability to make records, like he did even today during the moment, unfortunately, right after the afterment of the shooting, that the reason why the market's going up is because of him. But remember, even though we did have records yesterday in the Dow and the S&P, I think that has less to do with the president's own success rate. It's important to point out that our stock market is not one of the great performers in the world right now. And I think it's because we are beginning to get our arms around the fact that Trump is not exactly what I would call a great uniter. Now, we would have thought that we needed one with both houses of Congress and the White House dominated by Republicans. Who would have thought we needed a uniter? But when you start worrying about things like debt ceilings and budget deals becoming contentious, you would think that we are back in the old nothing done universe when President Obama was in the White House. Sometimes I can't tell you if Trump's being naive or clever or just plain obstinate. But we have to begin to accept that Washington is now an actual negative, not something neutral, as I outlined on last month's call. The stocks that are going up are going up not because of Trump. Trust me on this.


Doing a really, really great carving is the most important thing for a lot of carvers. And while I do believe in that, I felt like the concept for me was also just as important. That's really where my current practice began. My name is Luke Parnell. I'm from Prince Hubert, B.C. I am a Northwest Coast artist. I did my undergrad at Ontario College of Art and Design, where I studied sculpture installation. When I left OCAD, I was doing conceptual art, which meant, of course, I couldn't build anything. I couldn't make any objects. I had no training. Eventually, I began apprenticing with a master carver, Henry Green. And that was when I left Toronto and came back home. The reason I decided to come and do my masters degree at Emily Carr is because I needed to learn how to do the academic side of the art world. I felt like it was important to be in an artistic environment. When you're in a class and you get an assignment, and so you do the assignment, you think, oh, right now I did it perfectly. It's great. When you come into class and it's done 30 different ways and they're all awesome. It's because everybody's so creative. I just think that's just really an amazing environment to be in. Before I came to Emily Carr, I had a couple of goals. One of them was to learn how to do research, and another one was to explore my practice. Since I left Emily Carr, I've been working on some commissions for private clients. Also working on this public art piece for the Aboriginal Gathering Place. State of Grace, the piece I did for my graduating show here is at the Harbor Front Centre in Toronto, and a brief history of Northwest Coast design is at the Windsor Gallery. I'm also in the research stage for two projects that I'll start in September. So I'm pretty busy for the next year.


Kia ora kato. Good morning, good afternoon or good evening to you all. Welcome to New Frontiers Digital. This session is organised by the Edmund Hillary Fellowship as part of our New Frontiers series of online events. It's a modification of our normal three-day conference that's held in New Zealand. We run these events to showcase leading thinking from EHF fellows and aim to provide accessible, inspiring ideas that can support action. So before we get started, a few housekeeping rules. Any technical issues, put them in the chat window. Post questions for Danny, Debbie or Amarit, our panellists in the Q&A section. And we'll be recording this session and it'll be available afterwards on our website. And that applications for cohort eight are closing on the 1st of June. So you can actually put those applications in. So just a reminder today's session, it's insights from the investment landscape in Asia. And our panellists today, we have got Danny Lee, we've got Debbie Lell and we've got Amarit. And each panellist is going to speak for 10 minutes and they will then will follow that with Q&A for 20 minutes. So I'll get each speaker to introduce themselves. And then Danny is going to touch on the latest venture and PE investing trends in Asia. Family office view on capital deployment during this period. And then Danny's role in Elevate and how that aims to help develop the New Zealand early stage investing ecosystem. Take it away, Danny. Thanks. So my name is Danny Lee. I am an EHF fellow. I'm cohort three. I'm based in Hong Kong and I run the direct investment business for a family office here. And I've been kind of investing in globally for over 20 years now, both in VC growth capital as well as buy it out. So what I'll talk about first is probably give people a overview on the some of the latest trends that's happening in the venture capital and in private equity market globally, particularly in Asia as well. In general, I would say, investing activities have generally slowed down since beginning of the year. The impact is quite a bit deeper and broader felt. This is actually different from 2008. So a lot of people kind of think about all how this is compared to the great financial crisis. The situation that's driving this is very different from 2008. It's broader. And we think the markets are the stock markets in general. If you look at the stock market performance has been greatly exaggerated. We actually think there's a lot more risk in the global economy to come. But having said that, though, there's still a lot of capital in both venture capital and private equity globally, because lots of the funds have raised a lot of money. So we are still relatively awashed in liquidity. Just a lot of people are holding back. In terms of kind of looking at the different type of opportunities, there's really a tail of two cities, if you will. Strong companies today are still able to raise money and continue to drive high evaluations, you can see. But there's a large number of smaller companies where the business model is less proven, where the company is probably not yet profitable. They are facing much more scrutiny from investors, evaluations coming down. There's quite a few down rounds that we see in the region. And actually, that's probably a fact globally as well. People who could raise money are scrambling to raise money to have enough cash to make sure they survive this winter, which people are looking at at least 12, if not 18 months. And you have a little bit of a vision, if you will, in the venture capital space. We all know the soft bank vision fund have drove a lot of the unicorn valuations because of what's happening to them and put to the global markets. It looks like they won't be able to raise a fund too. And a lot of companies that are driven up into very high valuations will have a pretty big down round in this situation. And that will have big impacts on their ESOP pools on management share. So those companies could go into a bigger problems than we all realize. And then I would say lastly, on the market front, there are a few business models that are thriving, and there are a few business models that are not, or industries that are not. I would say in general, online business models, healthcare, sustainable slash EEG type of businesses are being more sought after. People are really looking at those, given that some of these businesses actually have benefited from the COVID experience. Industries such as real estate, education, travel and hospitality are clearly being hit. And a lot of these models are now being reconsidered. In particular, I think the low rate situation has really impacted real estate and a lot of the investment decisions. And people are quite honestly still having a way and see attitude in terms of how that will all play out. I will give you some numbers as well on my second point about how some of the family offices and in general investors are thinking about how they're looking at this whole capital deployment during this period. We have a quick survey that we did with some of the largest well-known family offices in the world. And here's some statistics I could share. Roughly only about less than 20% of the people believe that the economy, the global economy, will recover in 2020. Roughly half the people think that the recovery will probably happen sometime in 2001. But this is not a short-term thing for sure. And about less than a third thing it actually might take longer than that. It might go beyond 2020. So in general, I would say people are kind of thinking about the long term and expecting this to go longer rather shorter. In terms of making investments, roughly two-thirds of the people are still making investments. As I mentioned before, people still have liquidity and they're still making investments. About the other one-third is taking a way and see attitude and holding back in terms of making new investments. A lot of people are focusing on the existing portfolios, trying to fix things up. In terms of investment strategy, about 75% of the people are not significantly shifting their strategy because of what's happened. They're maintaining their allocations, they're maintaining their strategic focus, the industry focus, geographic focus, etc. The rest would say it's probably too early to say, but they are thinking about some changes maybe in the six- to twelve-month timeframe. But in general, most people are open for business, if you will. Investment is still being done. It's just a lot slower pace and the terms are being readjusted. We're starting to see some of the terms with venture capital become a bit more investor-friendly versus before. The greatest concern that people have is the hit of a second wave. This year is pretty much a write-off for most people, with the exception of perhaps some of the Chinese investors who sees a slightly brighter outlook in China. But in general, I think people are really concerned about the second, maybe even the third wave hitting if the markets are open too quickly. And then lastly, I will talk about my role here in New Zealand in relative to Elevate. So in times like this, I think we really try our best to step up and help smaller and less mature companies and ecosystems to survive and to develop more. Elevate is basically, think of it as a fund of venture funds that are sponsored by the New Zealand government. We have about 300 million New Zealand dollars. With the goal is to fill a funding gap in New Zealand, basically for venture capital. There is a shortage of funding from what we can see, usually around series A and B stage in New Zealand. There is a relatively thriving C, very early stage, angel round investors in New Zealand that can start companies. And you can see also there are mature funds that come in through Australia to invest into New Zealand companies as well. But in the middle, there is a gap. And what a lot of companies need is that development capital, usually the A and B stage, to take them through from concept to develop the business model to prove and to scale up to a certain point. And that's what Elevate is trying to do. The things that we're looking for in this is to find managers that will have won a good track record. That includes obviously, you know, your investment performance, having a stable team with some scale. And then second thing we look at is the value add that these managers will have to New Zealand. Whether or not they have, they're focusing on the right stage. So we're looking for people who are doing more series A and B stage work. Whether or not they have a dedicated fund pool to New Zealand, either if you know they're New Zealand based, or if they're not, they should have very clear dedication of time and resources and people and fund size to invest into New Zealand and help develop the ecosystem. And lastly, we look for, you know, alignment of interest because we'll be investors kind of starting LPs into these funds. We'll look for alignment of interest in the sense that we expect the investors themselves, the general partners to make commitment into the fund themselves. So that's a quick summary of what I have to discover. I'll turn the mic over. Thanks. Thanks, Danny. That was great. So now we're going to have our next speaker, our guest speaker, Debbie. And Debbie's going to take us through these few points. What's the Asian LPs recent reactions to the markets and plans for capital deployment? How the US and European GPs are reacting to the current environment of travel restrictions, i.e. delaying and or extending fundraisers? And does the world need another first-time fund, whether it's VC, growth, capital, or buyout? If you're raising your own fund, what are some of the key points to address? Thanks, Dewey. Great. Hi. Hello, everyone. I'm Debbie. It's good to be here. So the topic, especially the first in LPs, a little bit of that actually will overlap with what Danny shared, but I'll try to focus more on the institutional side of the LP world. So what I do for work is I fundraise full time for a variety of different private funds, so from strategies like private equity buyouts to growth capital, venture capital, credit funds, infrastructure, et cetera. And we primarily work with a broad segment of institutional LPs, including sovereign wealth funds, asset managers, insurance companies, and then larger family offices. So Danny is not only a friend, but also one of the LPs that we cover. So what we have seen in the past, I would say four to five months, given the market downturn and the volatility, is exactly kind of what Danny touched on. And I would kind of roughly categorize LPs into two camps. One is the more sophisticated and experienced LPs. So those that have gone through cycles, they understand that you can't completely stop your private investing program right now. Generally, a lot of the LPs we're talking to are saying that they understand in the downturn some of the best returns occur if you can find the right managers. What's happening is people are slowing down partially because there's working at home and the challenges of getting the IC together to discuss due diligence or discuss fund recommendations. But generally, we are seeing the more sophisticated LPs still saying they want to and they have to deploy capital into funds across different private strategies. I think within that, we've also looked at some research. So during 2009 vintage funds, they actually were some of the best returning funds. So 2009 funds had a net IRR of 13% across private equity. And then if you compare it to 2006 vintage funds, that was about 8.9%. So there's definitely an alpha if LPs consistently invest into this downturn. I think what's also happening right now is the past 10 years have been relatively easy money because the markets have just been good for everybody. And managers often pitch and say, we're good at managing risk. We invest in strong companies, et cetera. But it's in a downturn that you really see managers true colors. How are they performing in a crisis? How are their portfolio companies doing? Do they really deliver on the risk or the downside risk management that they were promising? And Q1 valuations have started to come out. So we have seen quite a broad range of markdowns. A lot of GPs or fund managers have marked down between 15% to 25%. But some have actually very minor markdowns. I've seen kind of 12%. And that manager really is continuing to close his fund and raise capital, right? Because they really are delivering on what they said. I think LPs are also just very nervous about Q2 valuations. And that kind of goes to Danny said is this recovery in the stock market may not reflect in underlying fundamentals. So I think a lot of LPs are waiting to see what's going to happen with Q2. So the second broad category is the more, the LPs that are less experienced. So they may not have gone through cycles before. And their ICs are just very cautious right now, right? So a lot of them actually have pulled back and just stopped their programs in general. What they're doing instead is looking at their existing portfolios and really scrutinizing the managers that they have today. So setting up conference calls and really asking them questions around how are you managing the risk? What's happening to your portfolio companies? What's happening to the industries that you're investing in, et cetera. But yeah, like for example, in Korea, in Malaysia, there are also different dynamics. Again, Malaysia is a little bit because of politics and then the currency depreciation. So a lot of those LPs have just stopped their program in general and they want to see what happens. Korea is interestingly culturally, they don't take as many phone calls. They would prefer to have face-to-face meetings. So that's also creating this dynamic of just delaying a lot of fund raises. But as the markets, the stock markets have come back, we are finding some LPs slowly cautiously coming back into the market as well. So they're taking more calls now. They do want to figure out which managers are good and which ones are the ones that they want to invest in. I think the other point that I would make here is for any new GPs, new to an LPs portfolio, it's going to be a very tough year to fund raise unless you really have something truly differentiating. So it could be again that you're very good at managing risk and you're demonstrating that now in this crisis or you have some type of strategy or some type of sector that is very unique and you can prove that or be able to communicate that. So second topic is just how are GPs reacting to this market? So we generally work with more experienced US and European managers that are probably fund three or fund five and etc. So a lot of them have gone through cycles. But with global travel restrictions, everyone is also realistic. LPs can't travel so they can't do on-site diligence. So the GPs are also slowing down. It's like one of our clients originally thought, okay, they'll start in January, they'll be done by July. Okay, after a lot of discussion back and forth and trying to get them to be realistic, they're doing rolling closes and then extending probably until December. We've also asked a number of other GPs, you probably want to extend till next year because not only do we have more clarity on the economy, but also next year gives you a different budget from the LP side. So you'll actually hopefully have a little bit more fresh capital next year as well. I've also seen some GPs just do smaller quicker raises. So instead of, again, past 10 years, it's been a good market for fundraising. A lot of people have been able to double their fund size or go up to plus 50% in their new fund. But what we're finding some of the experienced GPs say is, let's just keep it the same size. Let's just focus on LP's re-upping and just get it done. So instead of being overly ambitious, let's just be realistic and get this fund done. So I would say, again, GPs are reacting in a couple of those different ways. The other point that I would make is it's even more imperative, I think, in this downturn and crisis that GPs have been thinking about diversifying their LP base, whether it's across geographies or across different segments, because Asian LP's generally have slowed down, right? US LP's I think generally also have slowed down. Interestingly, I heard a data point a few days ago from a friend in the industry who actually said Middle East LP's are continuing to deploy because despite the oil price impact, the Middle East institutional LP's actually are quite sophisticated, and they have been trying to diversify away from oil and into private equity funds across different industries. So a lot of them actually will continue to deploy capital. So I thought that was an interesting point. And the last topic, okay, does the world need another fund?  So one, it's going to be very difficult. First time managers are always very difficult. I think in the current market, it's going to be extremely difficult, unless, so just some advice, unless you really have something very, very unique and differentiated. So if you're, let's say, an early stage venture capital firm, and even within that strategy, there's hundreds, if not thousands of managers, and I get pitch books a lot, or I listen to, you know, a friend's friend introduces someone that wants to start their own venture fund, and we talk about it. But you really have to have some type of focus, whether it's cryptocurrency or medical devices, or something that's really differentiated, especially if your fund is a bit smaller, which venture capital generally is right ventures usually a couple hundred million. So within that really think through like, what do you bring that's really different. The other kind of points I would add is you yourself as a manager should have very high conviction in your fund. And that usually means you really do need to put your own dollars into your fund. So the industry generally, in terms of GP percent of contribution is probably 2% up to I've seen up to even 10%. But if you're a first time manager, and you're only, let's say, putting in only 2%, and if your background and your net worth is pretty high, I don't think it's that convincing to only put in 2%. Right. Again, your first time. So you need to be able to convince LPs to be putting in millions of their dollars. And if you're not putting your own money in, it's a pretty hard story to, it's a pretty hard way to convince people. And then I think with portfolio companies, and then I think your pitch, you also really have to think through are the companies you're investing in going to have cash flow? What is that business model? Is it resilient, right? It resilient to cycles like now?  And we're seeing that even with the large funds like Vision Fund, which is going through a lot of issues in a lot of their portfolio companies, but even more so if you're a first time manager, how do you put together a convincing story? That's it. Brilliant. Thanks, Debbie. That's really good. Actually, I've got a lot of notes there on that one. So now we're going to move to our third panelist, Emerit. He's going to take us down a slightly different path now. He's going to talk about impact investor views from Southeast Asia and Asia Pacific, looking at new modes of philanthropy for corporates and family offices coming from Southeast Asia. And then also this is what I like, how innovation is going back to research and deep debt. Take us away. Thanks, Emerit. Awesome. Yeah. So, come in. I'm the EHF fellow co-represent. I bring a lot of my perspective from 10 years running for social enterprise incubator, not into tech and co-working space. And I love to mention about Vision Fund. We definitely got told by a lot of potential investors to copy the WeWork pitch deck. Thankfully, we didn't do that. And obviously, Claim to Fame is running a conference technology media company that has through and reads 20,000 attendees every June. But now I'm here to represent a new project. And this is the first time I'm mentioning it as the as in director of Impact Collective, which is a community-driven accelerator program and a fund that focuses on opportunities in Asia. And we've been in partnership with folks like the World Federation of UN Associations, UNSCAP, and Citypreneurs. So what I've really came about full circle is now to come and look at the companies in the co-working space, through my media company, through my network, and say it would look to work with about 100 promising startups in Asia Pacific over a six-month virtual celebration program, which will be anchored in four cities across APEC. And right now being backed by a fund of five, maybe up to $10 million. So I'm small fish in this big pond of a Zoom verb down. But today, I'd just like to mention that as somebody who's been looking at hundreds of startups annually, we're seeing three very interesting shifts that's happening in the past three months. So firstly, Southeast Asia startups, like Danny was saying, the winners are getting a pile of capital as the riskers in the view of investors are lower. And the weaker ones are being basically getting less access to funding or just even the opportunities to pitch. And I think a lot that's driven by in the past, unsustainable business models, weak financials, and in many cases, a lot of early stage entrepreneurs are first-timers. So a lot of gaps in terms of management experience, governance, treasury, and finance. And that's something that, you know, and our impact collective we've been trying to look at to fulfill, because as we try to graduate these companies and pass them on to our investment partners in the series A and A plus stage, we find that this is the often ideal breaker and then creates headaches that takes, you know, one to two years to resolve. We're also seeing a hashtag pandemic pivot. Then the big question now is everybody has seen it in their ecosystem where, you know, a entire tech company or home cleaning service is now moving into food delivery and all sorts of other short-term measures to bootstrap to stay alive, stay afloat. I think we're getting into a lot of conversations and board meetings. And I understand what is the true business model going forward for the next 12 to 24 months? And would these privates or kind of short-term consulting gig or bootstrap mode just to bring in the cash just to keep the lights on? Do some of these companies need to hibernate? A lot of travel companies have zero bookings. So, you know, do they keep the team or do they move out into different sectors? And I think that's an ongoing conversation that's starting to accelerate as a lot of investors want to know whether they should be doubling down on the team or should the team be doing something else. And then so opening up new opportunities as in Southeast Asia, some of the biggest funders and investors of startups happen to be conglomerates, corporate venture capital, some family offices. So we've really been in touch with about five education institutions and they are in desperate need of solutions that might be coming in US or Europe, but right now people are sending homework on chat apps and having webinars and the experience is abysmal. And we're seeing parents literally paying tuition and saying that they're going to pull the kids out of school because they can't access any of the facilities. So, as mentioned earlier, education is an interesting space that we're tracking. Obviously, biotech, health tech, that's a strong base that we see in Thailand. FinTech, a lot of companies in the region are raising as we're going to a cashless, contactless economy faster than anybody has expected. Also around future digital literacy, a lot of people that can work from home and are working from home have the luxury and privilege of broadband internet and the ability to use the tools that they have to find opportunities. But we're seeing people that are in the retail sector, tourism sector, hospitality and a lot of countries that are not well equipped to help these people transition to more sustainable jobs. So, on that front, we also find that the startups that we work with, on the social impact space, past 10 years, looking at the entire example, there's a handful of names, household names that 10 years ago you've heard of and they're still around. But the challenges we are also trying to see whether in the past we've been always looking for the passionate social entrepreneur that wants to change the world and trying to give them the tools of business. Nowadays, I think the market has brought it as basically jaded tech entrepreneurs also looking for both money and meaning. And there is kind of a convergence of the impact and tech. So, while the investments that we'll be looking into the entrepreneurs that we want to work with are ones where there is a scalable business model to begin with, I mean we're going to wrap impact sustainability and measurement around that. We're also seeing a sort of great feedback from an interesting source of philanthropic capital and new family offices. So, nothing against you Danny, but we're seeing a lot of very powerful matriarchs and women that are leading family offices in Hong Kong, in Thailand. For some very interesting reason, we have the highest percentage of women in executive positions for companies that are in stock exchange, I think over the mean of our close to 30% and a lot of them are very much reaching out to and trying to see how they can divert some of their corporate budgets, especially their marketing budget and events budget that are now on hold or completely cut and shipping to CSR budget this year. And they're trying to see if they could make their impact dollars go further rather than invest on a one-off charity or project. They're also looking at opportunities to project that will provide ongoing sustainable returns and impact. So, I think without the support of large enterprise, which happens to be one of the biggest accelerant of market adoptions and scale in the region, there's no doubt that in every country in Southeast Asia about 10 to 20 families run the show and that's something we just have to contend with. And that said, the investments that were mostly earmarked just for startups and accelerator programs and whatnot, we're also seeing a lot of them being deployed into deep tech R&D. Hence to the point that three of our major banks are saying that they want to build the next unicorn versus another ecosystem where there's more open innovation or people trying to work with startups. And it goes to show that these companies are seriously adapting the startup tools, are very much attuned to what's going on, the big shift in their ecosystem and the critical risk that business as usual no longer works. But at the same time, there's still massive opportunities for new companies to work with these corporates, but they no longer can you just come in and pitch a marketplace or an app that has a million downloads. I think one of the things I mentioned earlier is R&D and going back to unsexy business software as the services, a lot of companies move to part time or even some permanently remote working or working from home, as you see with Twitter, a lot of companies are selling the digital transformation process. And if you have the tools and innovation that can help them, working with their legacy systems, solving some really hard problems, that's a great opportunity to get investment and then business and partnerships. But if you're looking at just another clone problem and more mature market, I think corporates have adjusted very well. And I think the point is that there's a lot of hidden gems and an undervalued deal. And that is why we're at Impact Collective. We're trying to uncover these deals and give them the spotlight, give them the platform, give them the market access through our community across the region, the growth and scale. Because for an example, one company I work with, E-Tron, is building a fleet of electric motorcycles designed both in Thailand. They won the Red Dot award. They won the UN Environmental Program Low Carbon Lifestyle Challenge and worked with two of the major components in Thailand. But across the world, nobody has heard of them and it's been very difficult to fundraise. But there are great companies like this, the hidden gems that just need a little bit of the advice and support that hopefully we can provide. And not only will we be providing that for the companies in the region, I specifically as part of the Impact Collective would like to also focus on New Zealand. So firstly, very soon we're going to be doing a pilot internally with the Edmund Hillary Fellows to see how we can help source some of the amazing projects and put them in front of great investors like Dan and Debbie and all the investor fellows in the program. And if all things go well, we hopefully will open it up to Kiwi entrepreneurs. So that's my contribution to being part of such an amazing fellowship, Michelle. That's great. How about touching on how innovation is going back to research and deep tech? Sure. So we've been looking at a lot of opportunities where in the past a lot of the startups that we've been working with have and in South East Asia don't really have any IP or acquired technology or have any tech teams. There may be something like web development, app development teams and for a lot of the companies that we help to try to ensure they get up to a stage where once they meet investors, once they meet a potential buyer, a lot of them feel that, well, this is something that we could very much duplicate with the army of engineers, the resources, the technologies that we have. So when you go up in markets that are challenging or have a lack of private funds, in certain cases, any market outside of Singapore, Indonesia, there's always going to be a challenge in fundraising at the moment. I have not so more. We're seeing a lot of companies, especially in Thailand, they're going back to R&Ding their own battery technology in-house, looking at commercializing some of the amazing research that are coming out of university-led government labs. So the big joke, I'm a mentor at the National Science Technology Development Agency, R&D lab here in Thailand, and to be honest, the innovations that are going to come out in the next three to seven years around biotech and cosmetic and food science is probably more exciting than a lot of the startups I see and in pitch competitions. But the challenge is that the research company and the commercialization office has not fully embraced helping their researchers to become entrepreneurs. And in many cases, they're not matched with the right entrepreneurs, so they're actually not keen to become entrepreneurs in such an unfavorable economic climate. So I think there's a lot of work that we could be doing there, but if all things go well and more and more universities these days that we work with would like to do that really well, we've been in touch with some universities in New Zealand who have a lot of experience and actually would like to partner up with the Thai government, the Thai universities. So I think if that pipeline is sorted, you're going to see a lot more interesting innovations. Like we've got researchers who, you know, research curious or anti-virro drugs, HIV coming out of Thailand and make some very great progress with many cancer research. So stay tuned for that. Great, that's great, thanks. Danny and Debbie, do the Asian funds like to invest, you know, outside of market into New Zealand companies? So if the companies have had some good angel investment, they may have had their early series A, and then they're looking at becoming exporting companies up into the Asian markets, how keen are the Asian funds to invest in these New Zealand companies? Yeah, so maybe I'll take a first crack at that. The short answer is they're still fairly keen to invest into that space. The issue I mentioned before is that historically a lot of those funds that are investing in these growth stage type of companies even out of New Zealand came from outside of New Zealand. So they came from mostly probably Australia, some of them based in Singapore, some of them based in China, maybe even Taiwan. But there's a lack of New Zealand based investors funds that are providing this kind of funding and support. And that's what Elevate is trying to address. We're trying to find these investors and funds and put money to them and allow them to have the firepower to help New Zealand companies to take them through that stage. Because a lot of these funds when they're coming from outside, the issue is they don't have enough time and effort. They don't know the market as well. So they tend to focus on only the bigger ones and not, you know, there's a host of others as this kind of gets left out. And you know, Elevate is trying to address that by hopefully putting more money on the ground and putting more managers on the ground to help some of these companies to give a better chance, a better shot. Nice. Debbie, anything to add on that? Otherwise, I've got another question for you. Yeah, I think a couple, a couple thoughts. It could just be, so I know that a number of the Asian GPs, like the larger ones probably that have, you know, north of $500 million fund sizes, they are trying to diversify. So a number of them probably in the past looked in China, but increasingly that's very competitive. So they have shifted to also invest in Southeast Asia. And I do think there is opportunity for New Zealand. I think it's just increasing awareness. That would be one piece. And I think secondly, a bit to what Downey is talking about is just as long as there are good companies to invest in, the capital will follow. Yeah. Nice. Thank you. Amira, one for you. We've got a question out there from Ellen. It's about social impact investors. Woman-led businesses can be amazing, which is true. Would you have some advice for her on social impact woman-led businesses like that are scalable? Who should she approach? Well, this is for as a mentor or as a potential investor to pitch? I'm not sure. She hasn't really said. So I'm assuming it would be for getting investment. Okay. So I think there's a few things to do before pitching, I guess, one of which is to make sure that you're finding friendly mentors that can give you the advice and support network. And I think for Downey and Debbie, they're getting a gazillion pitch decks and funds and deals and opportunities. And there are channels and sources of trusted, vetted deal flow that are coming. And then if it's coming from this person, it must be legit and warrants higher attention. And I think that through the Edmund Hillary Fellowship, maybe our co-host and host Paula, Michelle, you can definitely point to some women investors. There's one in Singapore, Audrey Tan, of Circles of Angels, a beautiful soul. She'll laugh, she'll giggle, she'll help almost anybody. But she'll also give you some very stern comments. So I think that would be another Kawa Kawa cohort one fellow that I highly recommend. And obviously we are the team that is mostly running Impact Collective. Not only do we have co-founders that have exited for $100 million, but more than half of the people on the team are women and are all entrepreneurs. So at the Impact Collective, we're more than happy to stay in touch as well. So give me a shout if you'd like to be connected to us. Thanks. Debbie, one for you here. I think it's New Zealand VCs and maybe some of the mid to small size sort of VC firms in New Zealand are raising funds. How interested do you think that Asian sort of market would be to invest in the actual funds themselves? I think there's so there's always potential. To be country specific, you would probably have to find one of the more sophisticated LPs that has a larger portfolio, right? Because then they probably invested in a lot of generalist funds. So they have good allocation in that space and then a lot of a lot more experience. So they will start to look for country specific. But in any case, no matter what type of fund you are, you do need to have a demonstrated story and demonstrated track record, right? So let's say within New Zealand as a venture fund, maybe you're doing something. I'm just going to throw an idea out there like related to agriculture tech or maybe the space sector, right? Because I know that's a emerging growing tech growing space within New Zealand. And if you can demonstrate like where you think the growth will be over the next 10 years, maybe your team of partners are all scientists, how you think this is scalable across the region or across the world. You don't have a story related to that that excites LPs and then related to that, maybe why your unique and why only New Zealand can deliver on that. So that LPs will feel like, oh, this is very different, right? They'll feel like your fund or your portfolio is very different from anything else that they have, so that they have to put money with you. Nice. Just opening it up for questions out to the floor there, please. Pop your questions in the Q&A section and we can ask them to the panel or to each panel member or to all of them. It would be great. Do any of you panel members have any other points that you want to make on all of the bits and pieces that you've heard so far? Yeah, I'd love to add a little for Kiwi, all the entrepreneurs in the chat that may be still contemplating. There's a tremendous amount of opportunities in Southeast Asia and I understand the view that it's go to Australia first, maybe the US because a lot of Kiwi entrepreneurs are there, maybe it's Europe or the UK, but I think through building strong networks like the Edmund Hillard Fellows coming to New Frontiers and our virtual webinars and summits through the Asia New Zealand Foundation and perhaps through the impact there's a lot of opportunities to build the network and the understanding of the Southeast Asia market and Asia Pacific in general. So that one day if you feel that you'd like to expand your business here, there is actually a strong brand that New Zealand is recognized for and people not only appreciate the politics with the leadership but also just the amount of investment that is been done to the education industry that so many people are sending their gifts here. Obviously tourism was big and the food is up and you know right now and I think there is a lot of goodwill, there is a lot of opportunities. I do find that Kiwi entrepreneurs may feel that Asia is a little overwhelming. As you can see this, I work with a lot of Koreans so this is Itaewon and this is like the concrete jungle nightlife district but that's just something you have to get comfortable with. It's you know many different cultures, different languages and really just enjoying and embracing it and it will be a different pace. You know there's no walk in the woods, no more a five minute walk to the ocean and unfortunately that's what I missed about the year of Bangkok. That said the spoils and the opportunities can be rewarded but there is a lot of adaptation that you'll need to make as people obviously with a lower level income or corporates that used to buy illegal software, they're not used to SaaS, they're not used to expensive implementations, subscriptions and they're not and the consumer generally are going for free and have different concerns. Maybe privacy is less so and they want product that is designed and suited and localized to their needs and that is where you know having great business partners and communities who support and help you navigate through these market entry points is so crucial. So you know have a look at some of the communities that I mentioned and do keep this on your radar because if it wasn't important we wouldn't be having this call. Thanks for that. A question here from the floor. Given that it's a current recession economic downturn risk taking decreases what is the impact of the current crisis on investor interest in young IT startups versus mature startups? I guess I'll take a crack at that as well. I'm not quite sure exactly what's the his definition of mature versus young startups. Younger startups I think it's they're basically different group of people looking at them. The risk is obviously very different what they need is different the stage is different so you have different group of people looking at it. I think in times like this there are also a lot of opportunities as well. I think people see a lot of negatives to the downside but we always see there you know there's also opportunities in times like this as well. So there are a lot of companies that are coming up today particularly on online education like I mentioned before sustainability and vertical farming. So there are coming up with really interesting ideas and addressing some of these issues like in COVID testing there are at least as far as I know probably 10 20 if not more than that companies are focusing on that doing vaccines doing antibodies. So there's a lot of stuff that's coming out and investors are certainly taking notice and still focusing on that as I mentioned people still have liquidity so people are still looking to invest. I would say mature startups I guess if you mean like a unicorn startup that are that have pretty large valuations but still probably not profitable I think they're probably a little bit under more of a scrutiny. People will be looking at how they are actually going to turn the profitability on instead of keep burning cash for the next two three years for the foreseeable future. I think you see a lot of mature VCs or mature startups probably aiming to go IPO sooner than they had planned then before. So things will change. The good companies like I said still gets the capital but the medium or the mediocre companies will certainly get a lot more pressure. Nice. I've got another question here. How do you see the risks of increased Asia regional or global backlash against CCP state capitalism and how it affects tech investing and broader global investment landscape? Debbie you want to crack at that? Sure just to clarify CCP being like the communist government investing? Yeah I assume that's what Eric put there. Okay I mean it's interesting so look between the without getting into politics right but between the US and China the leadership obviously is taking this virus and then escalating it and adding you know dialogue back and forth and it is concerning but there continues to be a lot of capital coming from Asian LPs and Chinese LPs and the China sovereign wealth fund investing into US managers across strategies across venture capital growth capital buyouts etc. Is that going to slow down? No I haven't seen a slowdown. China capital is still very important to the world. There are actually pretty interesting articles if you just search online on Bloomberg and about these types of topics the capital also flows the other way right so a lot of US public pension funds so you can search for this online or university endowments out of US are big investors and big LPs in Chinese based managers as well whether it's venture capital private equity etc. I think it's sensitive right now but you know the reality of two of the biggest markets for whatever industries and especially for the future of innovation there's a lot of startups coming out of China and a lot coming out of the US so LPs that have millions or billions to invest will continue to do so. It may slow down in the short term because of geopolitics but I don't see them diverting it to other places because again these are the two largest economies. Did that answer the question? Okay. Yeah Eric he can let us know if it hasn't quite got there. Anyone we've got time for one last question yep here we've got one that's come in. Indeed Peter constraints brought about COVID-19 and not shackles. I am heartened that EHF recognises that New Zealand has undervalued entities that Canada must be optimised well done great. I'd love to have just one kind of leaving piece from each of you that you'd love to leave the audience with. Maybe I'll go first so I'm making a big picture for Elevate. I hope all the aspiring investors out there including Emirates can go and apply for Elevate to get the funding that they need to invest in more good companies that will help the ecosystem in New Zealand and rest of Asia. Nice thanks. Dibi? Up next. Yeah sure so there always will be capital so even with the current downturn whether the recovery takes a year or two years or longer there will always be capital that wants to find smart ideas, smart people, consumer behaviour is slightly shifting right because of work at home or social distancing so a lot of the kind of sectors that Danny touched on could also be super interesting even in the short term if you've got an idea or a fund that fits into online education or vaccines or whatever so I think on the optimistic side if you have something to offer that is unique that is either proven or at least you can give a good story I think you can still raise money. I agree. Emirate. Yeah just leaving a note I guess it's not all doom and gloom you know recently there's a blog posted I wrote inspired by another friend who said that you know some of the best companies are grown through the downturn and I think we hear that a lot. I certainly feel that I'm running a co-working space and we have no space to operate because the partial lockdown social distancing is going to cut occupancy by at least 50 percent we have to pivot but that goes to show that you know these ideas that we said we're going to do all these online programs were stuff that we had eight years ago and we just never got round to it because we were so busy you know doing the same old things and it was a great time to pause reflect and strategize of how you've been doing business have you been applying too much effort for a too little return is it making the impact that you wish it could and a lot new business models that now weren't possible and now is in the past nobody would imagine all of us having these webinars we were clamoring to go to New Zealand to be part of the new frontier summit but then unfortunately we can't and now this is the new normal and we're on a webinar literally every day so I think besides that is there's going to be a massive glut of talent that's on the market and you know so many companies benefit from being able now to get the the ears of engineer that has been furloughed or laid off and say well let's hack something together there's a ton of hackathons and competitions and free accelerator programs like why why combinator started schools amazing tech stars anywhere and and you could literally build your company with all these free tools and get to a point where you start to get free grants and funding and support I think that whole piece and so many people focus on supporting the next wave of the next ventures are impacted included so we're really exciting to see if you know the next 10 years that we will be part of some exciting growth story hopefully some coming out from New Zealand yeah exactly that's what we want we want them coming out of New Zealand thank you very much for your time today it's been great having you online with us and please fill out the feedback form and we've got other webinars that are coming up and don't forget that cohort 8 applications are open until um June the 1st for late applications and thank you very much team and we'll see you again soon thank you thank you thank you thank you bye bye


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