All right, I think we've had a very stimulating morning With some continuity between the panels, but certainly continuous discussion through the panels And it's with great pleasure that I introduce One of my former bosses actually a boss in many different respects Rudy De Leon Who I worked with as a colleague in the House Armed Services Committee and worked under his supervision So to speak at the House Armed Services Committees as well Although I think he sometimes wonder how much supervision I really took during that time But then worked with him closely When we came over at the beginning of the Clinton administration Both in the office of the Secretary of Defense and in the Department of the Air Force Rudy is somebody I've learned a great deal from I'm very thankful that he's Agree to come here participate later in the afternoon Introduce Secretary Cohen Rudy De Leon Well, thank you Clark Murdoch and thank you You know I just look out at the tables and I see a luminary at every table I had the chance to visit with Harlan Ollman and I see the former Titan of journalism Mr. Pat towel of the old Congressional Quarterly now of the Congressional Research Service in his years of covering the Armed Services Committees in the 80s in 90s so And Paul Gebhardt one of the principals at the Cohen group. So Ray de Bois from CSIS so anyway Clark you've assembled a great great group my pleasure to introduce Secretary Cohen as the keynote speaker the chairman and CEO of the the Cohen group, which is one of the formidable groups in Washington in terms of knowledge and capabilities of Global trends and global capabilities Also, the Secretary of Defense during a very challenging time, but equally important a Member of both branches of Article 1 the House of Representatives and then the United States Senate in particular the Senate Armed Services Committee the topic obviously is strategy for the future as we deal with a huge budget and confidence crisis in the United States It's also just catching the end of the earlier panel and all of the discussion on on strategy for many of us Because in many respects my experience is parallel Secretary Cohen's he was at the principal level. I was there at the staff level trying to get Clark Murdock to get his papers in Learning how to manage PhDs is a Mac But you know the challenge of the 80s after the Reagan build-up was to figure out how we were going to move from an era of debt To one where we could invest again and so from that period of 1987 to 1998 whether you were on the Armed Services Committee or serving in the Pentagon Managing the resources as well as the missions the strategies and the global responsibilities was at at the the heart of those duties and it's interesting Given that it took a decade and a half to reach that point Where the budget could be balanced and then secretary Cohen sent several of the senior staff over to start Negotiating with OMB in the White House in terms of how we were going to actually start spending on defense again resulting in The top line starting to go up from physical 99 and on But all of these pieces Together, but the decade and a half that it took to get to those budget increases of Graham Rudman The Bush Gebhardt dick Gebhardt not Paul Gebhardt agreement in 1990 the deficit reduction package in 93 and then the big package between president Clinton and Senator Dole After the government shutdown in 95 that really led us by 98 and then along with a phenomenal decade of economic growth So against all of those challenges, you know the Department of Defense left to its successors a budget imbalance and a capable force That was ready to respond to the challenges of of 9-11 and to the first decade of the 21st century So he's as current as the latest headline in the latest flashpoint And I know he's going to have many interesting perspectives both in terms of the crisis around the world But equally important the crisis of confidence that's here in Washington, DC right now. So Secretary of Defense senator mayor CEO of the Cohen Group Bill Cohen Well, you could tell by Rudy's introduction that he's a master of budgets. He Really underplayed his role at the Pentagon Because he was in charge of crunching numbers certainly and then became deputy secretary of defense who Essentially ran everything while I took all the credit for it. So Rudy you should be up here talking and not me I was intrigued with the subject matter Defense in the age of austerity. There's been so many ages that I have passed through There was Alan Greenspan's age of turbulence There was Joshua Cooper Ramos's book the age of the unthinkable For me I go back to the age of future shock That was really the first book that caught my attention way back in the early 70s When Toffler started talking about this Hurricane wind of change that was going to be blowing through the world and it seemed unlikely at that point But it has become a reality as we've seen how time has actually been accelerated and speeded up by by events Paul get part is in the the room today and he and Rudy both know I used to keep aside my desk two quotes I'm going to read them to you because they are still relevant to me first quote was Our earth is degenerate in these latter days bribery and corruption are common children no longer obey their parents Every man wants to write a book And the end of the world is evidently approaching and I'd like to say it has a contemporary ring to it There was none of the Syrian tablets some 4700 years ago Next quote that I kept beside me was this one It is a gloomy moment in the history of our country not in the lifetime of most men has there been such grave and deep apprehension Never has the future seemed so uncertain as it does at this time the domestic situation is in chaos Our dollar is weak throughout the world prices are so high as to be utterly impossible The political cauldron sees and bubbles with uncertainty Russia hangs as usual like a cloud dark and silent upon the horizon It's a solemn moment of our troubles and no man can see the end Could be in the Wall Street Journal in Washington Times any contemporary publication that was written in Harper's Weekly in 1897 so I used to keep those by my desk just to try to put some perspective on Things that have happened in the past the anxieties apprehensions of our forebears and how we managed to to get through it all something Even though I try to keep that in perspective something different today Rudy touched upon it in terms of I would say the three D's You have deficits running roughly 1.4 trillion on an annual basis you have a death that's 14 trillion and I think you have dangers that we have not seen before in terms of their complexity and Unpredictability in fact when Rudy talks about crisis of confidence I think we're suffering from a lack of confidence that we have the ability to manage the forces that tend to surface like a tsunami unannounced and then they sweep and overwhelm all of our plans and assumptions a Quote that I have always kept near and dear to me as well has been that of John Kennedy Because he really was the individual who inspired me when I was a young law school a student And I was thinking about his quote as well and how it applies today Let every nation know whether they bear us ill well or ill that will pay any price bear any burden endure any hardship Defend any friend oppose any foe in order to ensure the survival and success of Liberty Wonder could any political leader make that statement today? Is there any presidential candidate that could say we'll pay any price bear any burden in order to ensure the success of Liberty and freedom so we're living in a time of constraint As you've called it austerity And the question is how do we function? What do we do? What's our role and it's interesting You're all the experts in the the audience and it's kind of difficult for me to be talking to you about what needs to be done But if you think about it, you can't talk about how to deal with a budget and so you decide What it is you want to do? What is our role in the world today? What are our responsibilities in this world that is one of turbulence uncertainty age of unthinkability? age of Austerity what's our role that we have to decide that Kennedy said any will go anywhere do anything and now we're saying different voices saying come home America It's not George McGovern 1972 come home America. This is Ron Paul 2011 come home America President Barack Obama saying it's time for the United States to start nation building at home So we have this notion it's time to come back and deal with problems here It was interesting that I came from a lecture this morning or speech this morning by one of our colleagues in the Cohen group but Lord George Robertson and he was giving kind of an overview of how he's thing sees things in Europe and He said what's taking place there is rather fascinating because it's the the renationalization of issues That have no national solution Something similar taking place in this country be we're talking about going back to states rights For which no state is able to solve the issues And so there are interesting dynamics underway and talk about the renationalization of issues when in fact There is no nation that can deal with the kind of problems that are likely to confront us And so we have to decide under these circumstances. Who are we? What is our role? When I was at the Pentagon Rudy was there as well Paul Gephardt Amos Goodman comes later and the Cohen group in life But there was a book written by Richard Haas and was called the reluctant sheriff and that's pretty much how I saw our role in the world be a reluctant sheriff Have the best military you can but really choose wisely before you decide to deploy them anywhere and Pat you may recall how reluctant I was to get engaged in the Kosovo campaign I said over to you Europe your problem not ours and the European came back and said we can't go without you You need to lead this particular effort, but I was reluctant I wanted to be that reluctant sheriff and we could afford to be at that time The the Berlin Wall was down the Soviet Empire no longer existed Life was a little bit more with simpler then so we could be more reluctant Then came 9-11 and you have a new president. You have a new Theory a new doctrine that of a preemption And so you go from being a reluctant sheriff to almost the Texas terminator, right? and that had its consequences politically speaking because a lot of countries resented the fact that we were a little bit too big and Too too boastful and too aggressive and too unilateral So we learned some of the limitations of the exercise of power at that point now the question is who are we today and It's almost are we a member of an international posse Sometimes taking the leadership of that posse in Libya by way of example and then saying over to you members of NATO and will lead from behind Is that something that the United States is going to do on a more regular basis in the future? What is it? We see our role as being in a world in which there is greater and greater turbulence and and forces of disintegration in some cases The point is that we can't walk away from the world There are those who say come home America whoever is saying it We can't walk away from the world because the world's not going to walk away from us. That's simple We can't retreat to a continental cocoon and think we can watch the world unfold on CNN and think we're safe So we have to be engaged. That's a word. We like to invoke. We have to be engaged Amos you came up with a nice quote for me today I Think it's a ubiquit and Tango we like we like Latin phrases in Maine Derigo I lead is the estate model. This one is I touch everywhere And we had that philosophy as well And we want to be forward deployed booty will tell you we had three mantras at the Pentagon shape respond prepare Shaping was critical. We've tried to be forward deployed in as many places as we could in Order to try and shape events in ways that would be Advantages to the United States having a presence is really important and when you pull that presence away Some bad things can happen on a domestic level think about it because one of the recommendations going to be to consolidate bases That's one thing we can do. We got 10 15 percent overhead out there that we still can consolidate more bases There's an efficiency aspect of that. There's a money-saving aspect of that But there are political consequences that go with that I happened to have represented the state of Maine and I saw a Dow Air Force base leave Bangor And we had roaring Air Force base up in northern Maine What happens when you have the uniform military that? Departs from your community and they are very valuable members of that community They attend the Lions clubs the Rotarian clubs, etc. They are part of the community and when you remove them Guess what happens? The public doesn't see them the public thinks of other issues. They no longer think about defense How many times have you heard any debate take place in Iowa on the size of the defense budget? Not many because it's not an issue for them. And so there are political consequences to Shrinking back pulling back consolidating you can do it for efficiency But you have to then think about what are the consequences and we have to think about this as well as we look for ways to Live in this age of austerity and look at the choices. We have to make Understand that there are consequences. I could go on and tell you for example Secretary Gates was in Singapore And June of this year just as he was in June the previous year interesting if you were to look at the coverage back in June 2010 and June 2011 June 2010 he was Publicly decrying what had taken place the Chinese had canceled his visit as a protest of the arm sales of Taiwan Very kind of acrimonious sentiment at that time between the Chinese and the United States He was there this year in June and we were making Very positive overtures of the Chinese who were also there at that conference But the whole notion was at that time That we want to be engaged in ASEAN in the Asia-Pacific region and Secretary Gates said to the skeptics in the audience He said I will predict to you that five years from now will be even more heavily engaged throughout the Asia-Pacific region To a number of skeptics in the audience saying hmm interesting Let's take a look at your budget and tell me how you're going to accomplish more engagement In the ASEAN countries now and I'll get to that in a moment But I think as we look at this and you say well, how do we do all of this and the QDR has always been important We try to look into the future and say what what are the threats out there and if we can see these threats How do we shape our forces? What is the force structure? What are the end strengths? What are we what is it? We need in terms of equipment to deal with these threats that are coming at us those that we can identify and those that We have to try and anticipate to make sure that there are not too many black swans Out there that are coming at us that we haven't foreseen We've got our roles and missions study underway that will be important as the Magnificent 12 up on the hill the special select committee has to decide how they're going to allocate these reductions if we look at the Middle East again The world has changed rather dramatically We had one individual set himself on fire and lit a fire that had spread throughout much of the Middle East The Middle East is going to be different from now on. We're not going to have as friendly Closer relationship. I suspect with Egypt as we had in the past The same is true perhaps for some of the other countries in the region. The world has changing over there rather Dramatically, what does that mean for us? Was it mean in terms of the stability of the region if we look at Iraq, okay, we can say there's no Saddam But as yet, there's no democracy that is truly stable and secure So we still got instability in Iraq Afghanistan al-Qaeda is on the run, but they're still out there and they're out there And on the run as long as we're there We have some 80,000 troops that are committed to Afghanistan for at least according to the president's timetable 2014 So yeah, things are okay as long. We're there as they were there, but that may change Pakistan is a democracy that is fragile increasingly under assault from within and then there is Iran which has on his way to a Nuclear capability and what does that mean in terms of stability in the region? So that's a region that we have to focus on say well What are what will be our access to the region both from a military point of view? Will we still continue to have major exercises each well every other year? In the with Egypt and others Will we have access that we've had in the path political access as well? So we have to take into account that the world has changed in the Middle East One of the biggest changes of course is China and China has emerged I can tell you I started going to China back in 1978 and at the time I went there they had one hotel and they had no cars So you're looking at a dramatic Probably the most dramatic Transformation of a society and the shortest period of time in the history of mankind And at that time I met with Deng Xiaoping and he talked about his four modernization programs And he put military last said we'll get to that blast. Well last is now here And so they are feeling much more confident about their role in the world Many feel that the 21st century will be theirs and that the they are on the ascent and the United States on the decline and so that's an an issue which we can contest in terms of the reality of it, but it's something in terms of growing sense of national pride nationalism and And a growing military capability to match their economic power So it's going to present some challenges as we now know that the Chinese have indicated the South China Sea is theirs It's their exclusive jurisdiction and we are not to intervene in any way So now you have the great irony and Vietnam has called upon the United States to help out Resolve the issue for the Chinese and the Chinese have said thanks very much but stay out of it None of your business So we have an issue in which China is likely to develop They have Demonstrated stealth technology you call then Secretary Gates made his visit. It was purely coincidental I'm sure That they they hauled out their their latest or their only version of a stealth Fighter But it's coming. It's coming. They'll have stealth technology They have acquired a an aircraft carrier not capable as ours to be sure But it is symbolically very important for the region to say that they're going to develop a power projection capability and just that one aircraft carrier alone tells the the rest of the the world in that region that They're going to be a neck and a military power as well as an economic power and I'll come back to ASEAN as I mentioned I Was there with the Secretary Gates and conducting a series of meetings I along with Hank Greenberg are co-chairing a study that has been commissioned by CSIS As you talk about the relationship between the United States and the ASEAN countries and to put it shorthand All of the ASEAN countries are doing an enormous amount of business tremendous trade with China and that is likely to increase I think it's fair to say there's also enormous apprehension on the part of all of the ASEAN countries that China is going to dominate The region and they would like the United States to basically be a security blanket Basically say that you know, we need you we need you to be engaged. We want you to be engaged not by establishing bases Perhaps by paying more import visits, but having a stronger Relationship across the board not simply military but diplomatic economic culturally. They want us to engage Not to the point that we annoy or agitate the Chinese But that's a strict and pretty tight balance that we've got to maintain And it's a hard argument to make the Capitol Hill saying we're going to commit resources to a region But we can't really be too aggressive because that will be contrary to their interests in ultimately two hours So a lot of diplomacy is going to go into this effort because the Chinese are rightfully going to say we're an economic power We're entitled to have a military to protect it And we're going to do so And so we have to take that dynamic into account. I pass over Russia Russia we're likely to see the remit. We know we're going to see the reemergence of the president Putin We've tried to recalibrate and restart this relationship with with Russia through the Obama administration and Perhaps it will improve But I think that they are unlikely to be a close ally or friend of the United States in the Immediate future, but there are issues that we can work with the Russians on we'll have to work with the Russians on And I think that President Putin is going to continue to insist that he is going to be in Russia is going to be a player on the Geo strategic landscape so What is the world looking like them Middle East a lot of change ASEAN the whole Pacific Area China is likely to be a major player And so we have to be concerned about what Joe Nye wrote about remember Joe Nye wrote the book the paradox of American power Namely that when one country displays Or exercise power To a point where even your friends or your allies will align themselves in ways that will restrict the exercise of that power The Chinese have to face that as well They are becoming more powerful, but they've got to be careful. They don't show that power Too much or too eagerly now. I'll give you an example of that You recall when the Japanese had arrested the captain of a fishing trawler that had ram one of their boats I happen to be over in Tokyo at during this time and the Chinese demanded his release and the Japanese said no and The Chinese said we're asking you again They said no and then finally there was somehow a shortage of rare earth minerals being shipped to Japan And the Japanese said here's your man Now that was a very embarrassing moment embarrassing for the Japanese and On the other hand it certainly sent the signal to the Japanese and to others who were watching That perhaps this exercise of raw power by the Chinese Concentrated the minds of others saying maybe we shouldn't be so dependent upon China for rare earth minerals So now you have Australia doing their own Mining for rare earth minerals you have other studies underway So there's also this paradox of power the Chinese have to be careful That they don't display a power to the point where it causes Many others to align themselves in ways to constrain that exercise of power I mentioned all of this simply I passed over cyber warfare Which may be the biggest threat of all that we have to confront and that reminded me of Woody Allen's speech to the graduating class where he said America is at a Crossroads critical time in our history one path we face other despair and frustration And on the other hand on the other paths that we face total extinction May you choose widely wisely graduates him? And sometimes we feel that way Except that we have to remind ourselves that we still are a great power There is if you I like to do what more Saul used to do rip and read from the other papers Pick up the article that David Ignatius had on today's in today's Washington Post dealing with Mike mullin Pointing out that we have the finest the most combat hardened Military the most efficient military All volunteer force in the world and we do We still have a 700 billion dollar budget It's going to decline somewhat. We have had 13 Paul. I correct me 13 years successive years of of real increase in growth in the military budget and Yes, we're going to and we still have the enormous support of the American people So we're going through some harder times right now But the real issue is is one of what Rudy talked about is it's political It's a question of confidence It's a question of leadership and I think the danger is for us It's that we will do what we have done in the past. We will cut research development training Education We'll cut modernization We'll fail to invest in the future And we will continue to spend more on personnel to the point where we start to hollow out the force and That's one of the greatest dangers that we face it. We can have a smaller force We're going to have to have a smaller force. We can't do more with less We can't do as much with less and the question is can we do less with less in the answer is we'll have to So we can construct a force that is still very powerful very efficient very expeditionary and not hollow Secretary Panetta has said he will not He will not rain over a hollow military But these are the forces that work in terms of what will take place Up on Capitol Hill unless we act with some wisdom here. There are tough choices, but they can be wise ones I mentioned Brack That's a likely Area of consolidation, which will have saved considerable money It's been talked about in terms of retirement benefits to reform the system to make it a bit more equitable in terms of commitment and and job description healthcare When I was at the Pentagon the healthcare bill was 19 billion It's scheduled in three years to be 60 billion on an annual basis So the healthcare is going to have to change somewhat in terms of co-pays which have not been increased since 1995 And to privatize that which is not core to the operations So those are things they're they're third rails As we like to talk about third rails, but as compared to what are you going to start again? Cut the budget in terms of our DT&E Are you going to start hollowing out the force? You're going to stretch out programs to the point you get fewer at higher cost So there are ways to go about Cutting the defense budget and we will have to I know there are some in in the town So you can't have a constrained defense budget. Well, we've got a 14 trillion dollar deficit debt rather and one point four trillion on an annual basis in terms of deficit and a Force structure on the circumstance. It's just not sustainable Let me just conclude with observation made by a 13th century Turkish poet His name was Yusuf and he said to keep the realm requires many men on horse and foot To keep many men Requires the people to have money For the people to have money it requires them to be rich And for the people to be rich the laws must be just If any one of those four pillars is undone Then all are undone and that's what we have to continue to think about We have to have a strong military in order to do that We need money in order to have money We must generate prosperity in order to generate prosperity the people must feel that they are being treated justly Fairly and if there is any gap between that sense that they are bearing burdens Which are inequitable unfair and fundamentally unsound Then that support for each of those pillows will come undone I'll conclude on that happy note Because I think it's important that as the members of Capitol Hill look at the budget make decisions don't do it in a Easy and an easy fashion to say this is cut everybody take a percentage That's not the way to deal with our national security We can do it systematically analytically taking into account roles and missions What are the threats one of the like the most likely threats keeping in mind long-term threats are out there? China Russia others may become peer competitors and either hostile or friendly But competitors at the very least How do we hedge against that? How do we do so in a way that still maintains a stable relationship with either country or others who may emerge? As we deal with the short-term Types of threats that Secretary Gates and now Secretary Pena are going to have to confront.  I'll try to give you some answers. Thanks very much Time for a few questions I Refuse to answer that question on the grounds that Thank You mr. Secretary. It's very good to see you Let's go to those those third rails you presented them sort of like Woody Allen's dilemmas You know we can do something about retirement or hollow out the force and then choose wisely is the you know Now you've been away from electoral politics longer than I've been away from journalism. That's hard to remember But you played at a very high level very effectively for a long time And I'd like people don't think of politicians as being expert in anything, but still I agree But they are it's a real art and you were a master of I know and it's still Is there some way? Let's just take retirement and health care Is there some way that either of those you can construct a scenario that either of those could be? Approached in a constructive and practical way where you don't just you know roll the dice and hope that people choose wisely Yeah, well it really comes down to easy-word leadership if you have leaders who are willing to go out and to talk To the troops and I'm talking about at all levels not just dictating over to get the Joint Chiefs on board Let's go we can talk to the Budget Committee up on Capitol Hill and we got OMB signing off that won't do it because the The leaders in the military say well wait a minute That's a real disincentive if we don't explain what we're doing if we don't have buy-in By the people most directly affected Some will choose to leave but morale can turn very quickly So making sure that you sustain morale is going to be critical to making sure you don't have that hollow force And so I think it really depends upon leadership Admiral Mullen on the don't ask don't tell he was very forthright pointed out in the Ignatius piece today Didn't flinch went straight ahead on it But he said let's take the year to go out and and deal with our troops in the field Give us a year to see if we can make this work And I think if you go out and you explain to our military look these are the choices that we face Would you rather pay a little more in terms of your premium if it means? sustaining our health care system for our military if it means it's going to Put you and your family in a position. Yeah, it'll cost you a little bit more But just look at what if you didn't have this look what's going on in the private sector So you can do that if you really engage them if you really go down and work from the top level right to the To the sergeants who are out in the field with them that can be done and I'm convinced that can be done If you stay away from it much as you can when you're dealing with Social Security, you can't raise Social Security I think you can I Think you can even you start talking about Means testing these programs. I think we're getting to that point where we say here are choices Here's the dilemma if we don't take this action These are the consequences and if you start talking to the American people and doing it on an educational basis I think you'll find them Willing if you just want to throw red meat you can do that May I I meant mention this the other day? I said when I when I went back to Maine to To meet with my constituents for the safe farmers up in northern Maine some of my staff members I had younger ones at that time who were with me. They said, why are you reciting T. S. Elliott? And I said look I'm gonna give the same speech in northern Maine to my potato farmers I'm gonna give to CSI down here in Washington And what I found was people want you to lift them up lift their spirits don't underestimate them Don't talk down to them. Don't think that all you have to do is throw red meat to them on any given issue if you Want to reason with them saying here like here's my problem Can you help me out? Here's a solution here. What do you think so if you engage them at that level? I found it very successful for me over a 24-year period of time and I Was with a group yesterday talking about how do you get civility back into our political system in? All of the years I was in politics. I never once faced a negative campaign Never once at an issue of in civility now that was then this is now life has changed 24 and 7 on cable shows etc But I think we do a disservice to ourselves when we don't go to people and explain The hard choices they had to make and ask them to participate to say you know what made this country great That we were willing to share The pain as well as the opportunity. There's great quotes from Walter Lippman. I used to use and some of my commencement speeches and Lippman went back to his 30th reunion class of 1910 at Harvard and he went to his former college He said you know something every time we had a tough decision to make we took the easy way out He said following world war one. What did we do? We cut our defense We started passing the the bubbly around enjoying life and then what happened. We knew there was a mechanized evil Over there in Europe and we ignored it and then we had to pay a price He said this is the standard to which the wise must now repair He took the good things for granted and now you must earn them again for every right that you cherish You have a duty you must perform for every good that you wish to achieve you have an obligation you must perform And for every hope that you have you must sacrifice your comfort and your ease because there's nothing for nothing any longer Boy those were tough words they were true then they're true now and I think if you talk to people at that level you'll get a response I'm Harlan Oman. Good to see you again. Thanks for sharing your wisdom It seems me that probably the largest problem collectively we face on the globe Whether in Afghanistan or Brussels or Washington is bad or an absence of good governance Especially here and you focused on that I wonder if you could share some more of your wisdom as to how we might deal with us in the United States Because it seems to me that our biggest problem is failing governance and I'm not sure one sees the leadership emerging at this stage That may be necessary boy Tough toughest question of all. I don't bore you with a senatorial answer to this But you know, it's discouraging to me when I see what is taking place up on Capitol Hill When a president of the United States and we can disagree with his policies and have philosophical Differences, but when the president of the United States offers you a deal 80% of what you want Usually you take that fight later for the other 20% But to walk away from something that say no under no circumstances we get a hundred percent or nothing at all What I fear is taking place is we're having a parliament without a parliamentary system And so you've got you know You got those on the right over here and those on the left over here And there's nobody in the middle because those in the middle get punished Bob Bennett one of the most conservative senators from Utah gets booted out of the party because he did what? He talked about supporting TARP or he talked about working across the aisle on immigration issues out of the party You start looking what has taken place that the punitive measures taken about anybody who wants to work across the aisle It's pretty pretty dramatic and pretty quite a Difference of the way life used to be I mean every every everybody looks back You know we're all looking back over our shoulder all the good old days But when I first went to the Senate think about you had people like scoop Jackson You had musky had a river coffee had Jack Javits had Howard Baker You had Ted Kennedy you had people who had real strong opinions And they would fight like hell during the course of the the day and they'd always end up finding a way to make it work And right now I don't see a sentiment for wanting to make it work We want to win the next election, and we're going to do practically nothing between now and next year Because Republicans are going to do everything they can to prevent President Obama from having any successes. Well, what does that mean for all of us in terms of we have to wait? 13 months 14 months before we said well, okay now we've got Obama's either anneries out. We've got new members of Congress now We have our supermajority and then what so then you'd have a What 40 member minority in the Senate on the Democratic side 40 members can still do a lot of Blunting stultifying right so what are we talking about in this kind? Why is it we are not rewarding people for being willing to take principal position if you don't use the word? Compromise you remember when Congressman Boehner? He was doing a I think a 60-minute interview way in the beginning and he said I will never Compromise my principles Always seek ways to develop a consensus Common ground what happened if they poll tested the word compromise use the word compromise that means you're weak That means you're on principle so therefore you can't use that word. All right. We'll give me another formulation of that word and so I think what we've got to do is we've got to raise the level of of criticism against those individuals who walk away from something that is both reasonable and fair and We'll deal with the issue. We should be willing. I think the president made a mistake frankly on bold Simpson They came back after a commission, right? Commission makes recommendations. I didn't agree with everything there, but it was an approach That could have been fleshed out and the president gave it short shrug Couldn't get a majority members to sign on it couldn't get the the 14 so it just went to the side So where are we now? We've got 12 members who've been empowered to make these decisions. You've got six and six Who's gonna cross over? Which which one going to brave enough to go with the other side to break the tie? At this point and maybe they'll be able to come up with something because the Republicans said no taxes no revenues under any Circumstance no matter how fair they might be warm buffett aside No taxes and the Democrats ain't don't touch social security. Don't touch Medicare They're both impossible positions if you're trying to find a way to really have a systematic solution here and I think Also, we have to be aware that other people are watching us Not just us American people watching us. They're watching us overseas everything that we do China Russia ASEAN countries all of them saying what is the United States doing? Do they take us seriously anymore if we don't deal seriously with the issues? And so we've got big problems And I think what we have to do is to commend those people who are willing at their own risk Political risk to reach across and say, you know something I don't like this, but I think it's necessary I don't want to do this. I understand the impact, but I think it's necessary and I think if we do that I still believe that vast center out there that is growing increasingly angry I was at this session yesterday in which the Pew polls were 82 percent of those polls were angry and they're all in the middle Now what does that mean? Means that you're going to see possibly and Tom Friedman has written about this, but this guy named Peter Ackerman Peter Ackerman has been trying to find a way to circumvent the convention system He's going to do it through the internet and he's going to go out He's going to propose that you have a bipartisan ticket If you have a Republican presidential nominee must be a VP must be a Democrat and vice versa sounds implausible in practical He's going out on the internet to get a ticket on the ballot in every state So that you'll have the Republicans the Democrats and you'll have the other Out there and it could be any way it could be it could be any of the candidates who are not going to make the final cut And either party could end up on a ticket now that may not work out this time But that is out there and people trying to find ways to resolve this dilemma I've always felt personally that if a Democrat has a good idea. I want to I want to be with him if Republicans have I want to be with them And I think we have to have more of that rather than taking ideological positions that are so absolute You plant them in cement and say anybody who differs and seeks compromise Is part of the mushy middle unprincipled when in fact you can maintain your principle of lower taxes lower regulation But recognize that under the some circumstances. Yeah Higher income people can pay a little more Under we can we can make changes in terms of retirement age for those who are white-collar as opposed to those who in the coal industry Etc. We can do those things if we have the political will and what is missing right now Is the political will to solve issues rather than simply structure and posture for the next campaign? So the crisis of confidence Use that phrase today. There was a book written about the recovery of confidence by John Gardner. Remember that book the little thin book Had said something I have never forgotten it. He said the problem today He said that our institutions have been caught in a savage crossfire between Unloving critics and uncritical lovers And what he meant by that on one end of the extreme you had the unloving critics People who only saw negativity and everything that we were doing and would simply criticize with nothing Constructive to support the planet at the other end you had these uncritical lovers People who always embrace the status quo and would do everything they can to blunt and nullify any change And what he was recommending is you've got to have critical lovers You got to have people who love our country and our system and and embrace it and also know That you've got to have change if it's going to be viable and alive If you have a still pond you've got death and decay you have a Moving stream you've got life and regeneration and that's what we have to do to put back into our system Anyway, I'm starting to sound like a senator and I don't want to end on that We'll get started


Hello and welcome to the Grand Line Review, your source for everything one piece. Today we are going to be wandering back into the domain of the more quirky and unique fruits in the series in order to examine the Mane Mane Nomi. The Mane Mane Nomi is a paramecia type fruit that allows its user to morph their body into a perfect physical copy of anybody whose face they have touched. It was eaten by Bentham, better known by his alias Bon Clay, and was first showcased in all of its glory during the alabaster arc. The name of this fruit was conjured very simply as Mane is the Japanese word for mimicry or imitation and continuing the trend of incredible simplicity, there is also a uniform translation that exists across Viz, Funimation and Poor Kids who have labeled it as the Clone Clone Fruit. So what we have here is a fairly simple concept. The user of the Mane Mane Nomi can take on the form of others that they have touched. However, there is one key restriction when invoking its powers, which is that the user must touch their target's face with their right hand. However, once that condition has been accomplished, then well where in business? And the user of the Mane Mane Nomi simply needs to touch their own face with their right hand to become a copy of their target, and to revert back to their normal form, the user simply needs to touch their face with their left hand. But the resulting effect is becoming a perfect clone of the target. I mean, well, perhaps not a perfect clone, because if the Mane Mane Nomi user touches another Devil Fruit user, then the resulting copy body will not inherit the Devil Fruit powers of the target. But that said, the user does inherit the raw speed and strength possessed by the target, which can be quite advantageous if you choose to target a particularly powerful individual. But it can also be quite a drawback if you choose to target someone with more limited functionality than yourself. Furthermore, should that person have a specific physical weakness, then it's only natural to assume the user of this fruit would receive that as well. For example, let's say that a Mane Mane Nomi user wants to copy Joe Boring here. However, unbeknownst to the user, Joe Boring has crippling rheumatoid arthritis in his left knee. This makes imitating Joe Boring a highly undesirable task. So with all of the above in mind, the Mane Mane Nomi is not really a fruit geared towards combat. And in fact, even if the user were to copy an extremely strong person, there is a major disadvantage associated with instantly entering a new body, which is the general unfamiliarity with the simple functions of the target's fleshy vessel. It might sound weird, but we're all very familiar with our own bodies having spent our entire life in them. And after all of that time, being thrust into a new one is not an easy transition, which we surprisingly have evidence of in the series. During the punk hazard arc, prankster king Trafalgar Law swapped an awful lot of bodies, resulting in beings that were barely able to function in their new human homes, despite some of those people being exceptionally strong in their own right. However, there is a very handy bonus that comes along with consuming the Mane Mane Nomi, which is the ability to permanently recall bodies of those the user has touched, which is very, very necessary because if this fruit was more like Vanderdeckens and had a target limit, then it may as well be in the garbage tier of devil fruits. So the main advantage of permanent access is that if you were to copy a particularly strong individual into your copy repertoire, then you could take the time to train yourself in the use of their body. This may take quite some time, potentially years, but if you were dedicated, you could master the use of multiple bodies and whip them out when specific situations call for your anatomy to be stronger, faster, smaller, larger, whatever. Although there is a question regarding the memory aspect of the fruit, specifically as to whether or not the Mane Mane Nomi also grants the user idetic memory, more commonly known as photographic memory. In the series, Bon Clay has idetic memory and so is able to perfectly recall anybody he has ever touched. However, I think it's fair to point out that it is entirely possible that this is a trait belonging to Bon Clay himself rather than the Mane Mane Nomi. Should this not be a property of the Mane Mane Nomi, then there are obviously strict limitations to your permanent clone bank, which would be entirely based on your own personal memory. The other thing we don't have any particular clarity on is the genetic extent of what the user of the Mane Mane Nomi can copy. And what I mean by that is, is the user restricted to only copying humans or can they take on any life form? It's questionable because in the series, Bon Clay was able to copy Chopper's body despite him only being partly human. So, assumedly the user of the Mane Mane Nomi would be able to copy other partially human forms, like fishmen, mermaids, or even possibly giants. And that idea alone takes the Mane Mane Nomi from just an alright fruit to approaching kind of incredible actually. The thought of being able to transform into a giant at will is very appealing indeed, and being able to become other beings like fishmen would open up whole new worlds for you to explore. But it also makes you wonder if the clones have to be based on humanoid beings at all. I mean, could the user of the Mane Mane Nomi pat an adorable golden retriever and then use their power to become an adorable golden retriever themselves? Although even if we continue to be restricted by humanoid forms, where exactly is that limit? For example, if the user of the fruit touches and becomes Frankie, do they receive a cyborg body? Or do they receive only the human portion of Frankie? Personally, I'd be inclined to say that it would be the latter because the Mane Mane Nomi does not replicate items or clothing held by the target, so that more than likely extends to bodily modifications. So it's probably best not to target a cyborg, particularly if their arms are completely cybernetic, because essentially you'd transform into your target and you'd never be able to revoke back to your real self because you have no left hand to touch your face. Come to think of it, this also applies to completely humanoid targets who have lost their limbs, like shanks for example. If the user of the Mane Mane Nomi chose to replicate shanks, then well, they'd be stuck as shanks for the rest of their life due to his missing left arm. Probably not a bad trait at all considering he's one of the four emperors and whether that would also paint a pretty big target on one's back. Basically what I'm saying is, be careful whom you choose to dopplegang because things have the potential to go very, very wrong. And with that we should probably examine exactly how Bonclay uses the Mane Mane Nomi in the series and the result is quite well actually. Despite his extraordinarily flamboyant persona, Bonclay was once employed as an agent of espionage for the organization Baroque Works, and the Mane Mane Nomi was a surprisingly crucial aspect of their plans. Using this Bonclay was able to impersonate the king of alabaster Nefertari Cobra and directly steer the kingdom towards civil war. There was also a very handy moment down the line in the series where he impersonated the head warden of Impel Down, allowing Luffy and the rest of the jailbreak squad to escape the hellish compound. Other than that I have to say that Bonclay's use of the fruit is primarily for comic effect. He's a pretty upbeat guy and likes to have a lot of fun with his powers, which is cool and all, but they're not particularly useful unless they're being put to work in some sort of plot that involves impersonating someone. Bonclay is also heavily restricted by his combat style Okama Kempo. This martial art requires a body perfectly sculpted to wield the true force of its techniques, which means that in any other body, Bonclay is completely unable to use any form of the martial art he has painstakingly mastered, and due to his focus on Okama Kempo, it's also highly unlikely that he would ever put in the time and effort to master another person's body for the use of combat. So the Mane Mane Nomi really isn't the most helpful of fruits in the hands of Bonclay. Hilarious, but largely ineffective. As for any potential awakening, here we have yet another example of a bit of a weird paramecia. If we stick with the motif of an awakened paramecia affecting the user's environment, we could hypothesize that perhaps this would result in the user being able to become copies of objects like trees, rocks or buildings, and somehow not requiring a hand to turn themselves back. Or perhaps they'd be able to do sort of the opposite, by turning environmental objects into clones of people, although I'm not entirely sure that that would be too useful. Or maybe of some benefit though, would potentially be the ability to create more than one clone body, similar to the multi-form technique from Dragon Ball just without the decrease in power. Or like how Nico Robin is able to create clones of herself. Or maybe we could go with an even simpler solution and say that the user is now capable of imitating people that they haven't touched, which would be pretty amazing. Some other miscellaneous things to consider when becoming an imitating human. One little extra feature of the Mane Mane Nomi is the capability for the user to change individual portions of their face. In the series, Bonclay uses power to create the world's funniest face, although it did end up just being his own face with who's up snows. Furthermore, given this level of facial control, it may be entirely possible to apply that to the rest of the user's body, allowing them to Frankenstein themselves, by being particularly selective about what limbs or other parts they may wish to take from their targets and create an entirely new body. In closing, the Mane Mane Nomi is really more of a niche devil fruit. It holds an exceptional amount of potential within a single area of use, but not a whole lot of general utility. Although the permanent bodily memory bank is fantastic and it does open the doors for a truly dedicated individual to copy and master a wide variety of different vessels, but for the most part, it's an okay fruit at best. I wouldn't be complaining if I'd eaten it, but there are certainly a legion of better choices out there. And with that, we are going to commit the Mane Mane Nomi to the devil fruit encyclopedia. Next week, we'll be cranking up the heat somewhat in order to investigate one of the most popular devil fruits in the series, the Meromera Nomi. If you enjoyed this video and the content this channel produces in general, then please do consider donating to the Grand Line Review Patreon, because the support of all of your amazing people is what continues to make this channel possible. Also, I've recently launched a Teespring store if you're interested in shirts, hoodies and other miscellaneous items, with proceeds going directly to support the channel as well. And if you'd like to join the fun, then please do head over to my Discord server, where a wide array of shenanigans retakes place on a daily basis. And finally, please do comment with your thoughts on the Mane Mane Nomi. This has been the Grand Line Review, and I'll see you next time.


I tend to think of Goodwill in some ways as sort of the stuff equivalent of the slaughterhouse. I mean, people who eat meat don't tend to want to think about where that meat comes from. And to some extent, it's similar with Goodwill. I think a lot of people don't want to think about what happens when they put something through that door and that there is such a flood of stuff, not just in North America, but around the world that thrift stores and secondhand stores and flea markets and used clothing markets and developing countries, they simply can't handle it all.


So, good morning, welcome to this lecture. So, in the previous lecture, we have been discussing the orbital mechanics. We have derived the equation for the particular orbit based on the conic sections, based on force balance. And towards the end of the last lecture, we have derived the expression for the orbit in terms of its energy. So, let us continue from that point and take it further.  And we call this equation h. In this equation, h is the angular momentum of the vehicle in the orbit, which is a constant because there is no angular acceleration. Theta dot is constant. So, therefore, angular momentum is constant. m is the mass of the vehicle in that orbit and r min is the minimum distance of the vehicle from the center of the heavenly body. This term came from the kinetic energy of the vehicle. This term came from the potential energy of the vehicle, where g is the universal constant, m dash is the mass of the heavenly body and as I have just said m is the mass of the vehicle. And since in the orbit, so far in our discussion in orbital mechanics, we are considering that the thrust has been given impulsively. And after that, there is no thrust when we are talking about the vehicle dynamics. It is moving purely on the because of the gravitational force. So, if the thrust is 0, then when it is in the orbit, there is no net energy being added to it. And if the energy is not being added, then the total energy remains constant. Therefore, this is the energy of the vehicle at its minimum point, which is constant. So, at everywhere in the orbit, we will have the same energy. So, this is what we have been talking about, m dash, this is my minimum point r min. The vehicle is somewhere here, moving with a velocity v, this is r and this is theta. Now, with this expression first for theta equal to 0, then we say at any value of theta, we will have the same condition. So, this is what we have been discussing. Now, earlier we had derived an expression for the conic sections. And we have shown that the eccentricity of a conic section epsilon is given as h square upon g m dash r upon r min minus 1. And we had called this equation d. This we had derived in the previous lectures. Now, if I take this expression for d and combine it with h, if I combine these two equations, then I can get an expression for epsilon in terms of other parameters. So, after combining, I will get epsilon square is equal to 1 plus 2 times h by m square upon e by m divided by g m dash square. Let me call this equation j. So, here what we have is an expression for epsilon, which is the eccentricity of the conic section in terms of the angular momentum, the mass and the energy. This is the expression for the eccentricity. And we had also obtained an expression for a, which appears in the conic section expression in terms of epsilon. So, if I look at that expression for a and put it back here, I will get an expression for a in terms of the orbital parameters as minus g m dash divided by 2 upon e by m. So, once I would like to point out here that earlier we have got expressions for a, epsilon, etcetera in terms of Armin and other parameters. Now, I am just combining, so that I bring in the energy content also. Previously, we had not talked about the energy. Now, I am combining these equations to bring in the energy. So, let me call this equation j. Now, previously we have discussed how the eccentricity dictates what will be the vehicular path. We have discussed that if epsilon is greater than 1, we have a hyperbolic path. And we have shown that hyperbolic path is not possible, because it is going to come down. We have shown that if epsilon is equal to 1, then we are going to have a parabolic path, which will be a fly by. We have also shown that if epsilon is equal to 0, we have a circular path with the radius is equal to the mean distance, the minimum distance that we have talked about. We have also shown that the possible orbit, circular orbit is a possible orbit. Another possible orbit is ellipse, where epsilon is between 0 and 1. We have discussed these things in detail. Now, let us see that how did the path depends on the energy, particularly the relative importance of the kinetic energy and potential energy. For that, let us first consider a case for E greater than 0. E greater than 0 means if I come back to this equation, the kinetic energy is greater than the potential energy. That is what E greater than 0 means. So, if kinetic energy is greater than potential energy, E is greater than 0, which essentially means kinetic energy is greater than potential energy. Then if I come to this equation, this is greater than 0. So, this is greater than and all these terms here are greater than 0. Therefore, this entire thing is greater than 0. So, 1 plus this is greater than 0. Therefore, epsilon is greater than 1. Sorry, 1 plus this is greater than 1. Therefore, this means epsilon is greater than 1, which essentially means that we have a hyperbolic path and we have shown that hyperbolic path is not possible. Therefore, if my kinetic energy is greater than the potential energy, we do not get a proper trajectory. Next case, let us look at for E equal to 0, which means the orbital energy is 0, which means my kinetic energy is equal to the potential energy. So, the two energy components are balanced. So, there is no net energy in the orbit. In that case, this term is going to be 0. If this is 0, this entire thing is 0. Therefore, epsilon is equal to 1. So, we get to epsilon is equal to 1, which means what we have is a parabola and we have shown that parabola is also fly by. It would not be captured in the orbit. So, E is equal to 0. That means the kinetic energy is equal to the potential energy. The vehicle will just fly by. It would not be captured by the gravitational force of the bigger body. It will just fly by feet. Then the other scenario for E less than 0. E less than 0 means my kinetic energy is less than potential energy because E less than 0 means this term is negative and this is going to be negative when this term is less than this. Therefore, my kinetic energy is less than my potential energy. Therefore, when kinetic energy is less than potential energy, the overall energy is less than 0. Then this term is negative. Everything else here is positive. Therefore, if I look at this equation, this term is negative. I have 1 plus a negative term, which will make it less than 1. Then we take the square root. Epsilon is less than 1. So, for this case, when kinetic energy is less than potential energy, my epsilon is less than 1 and that is an ellipse. So, we have an elliptic trajectory and this is something that is possible. So, what we have shown from this discussion that in order for the energy captured into an elliptic orbit, my kinetic energy should be less than the potential energy. Typically, what we say is that kinetic energy should be equal so that there is no net energy. But in order to capture it in the orbit, what we have shown is that kinetic energy should be less than the potential energy. Only then it will be captured in the orbit in an elliptic orbit. So, this discussion then shows that we have a case where we can capture it by putting E less than 0. Now, if we are talking about let us say somewhere vehicle, which has to escape from the gravitational pool. Then we need to talking about escape velocity. Out of these cases, which one will give us the escape case? Parabola fly by. So, if we have to escape from the gravitational pool of the heavenly body or say earth, we have to take a parabolic path. It should correspond to parabolic path, which essentially means that E equal to 0. There should not be any energy only then it will escape. So, therefore, from here now we can get an expression for the escape velocity. So, let me try to get it from here. As you can notice now the importance of this equation H. So, next we talk about escape case. For escape it has to be a parabolic path. As we have discussed that that is what is going to be the fly by case. So, we should have a parabolic path and this implies epsilon is equal to 1, which implies that the total energy is equal to 0. Now, if I put this condition back into this equation, what I have is H square upon m r mean square minus g m dash m by r mean is equal to 0. Now, let me first cancel this r mean and H is my angular momentum, which is equal to m. Now, let us say the velocity I am talking about is escape velocity. So, I will write it as u escape and r. And as we have said that everywhere it is constant. So, we will take the minimum radius only. So, we will put it as r mean. So, this is my H value.   So, this I will write it as simplify this as half m square u escape square r mean square divided by m r mean equal to g m dash m.  So, what I have is escape velocity is equal to square root of 2 g m dash by r mean. So, this gives me an expression for the escape velocity in terms of the universal gravitational constant the mass of the planet and the distance of the location of that vehicle from the center of the planet. Now, we can take it further and find out that if we launch the vehicle from earth surface then r mean is equal to radius of earth. So, this will be then replaced by radius of earth we can find out the escape velocity from earth. So, this is the velocity with which it has to be launch. So, that it can escape the gravitational force. So, this is first thing now we are getting somewhere we started this discussion to get the velocity increments that we are looking for. Now, we see that this is what is going to be the escape velocity. Next let us take it little further try to find out the period or the time it will take for the vehicle to move around in an orbit. For that I am not going into the detail will give you as homework again for epsilon less than 0. We know that potential energy is greater than kinetic energy and that will lead to an elliptic trajectory. We have shown this before which essentially means capture that is the vehicle is captured by the gravitational force of acting from the bigger planet. So, this is the orbit capturing for that this is the condition. We can find out the orbital period that is the time it will take to move around take one revolution around the planet around the planet. You can solve it yourself not very difficult to do will be given as tau equal to 2 pi a to the power 3 by 2 divided by square root of g m dash. This is my orbital period let me call this equation k. So, now we have derived many many equations we will now look at how to use this equations. So, far now we have derived most the most of the equations required for getting the orbit orbital mechanics what will be the velocity etcetera. Next what I will do is first of all I am going to list all the equations that I have derived which are going to be helpful. After that I will summarize how do we use this equations to estimate the required velocity that is what our next course of action is. So, now I am in the summary mode I am going to summarize what we have discussed so far. So, first let us look at what are we trying to do we have a body of mass m dash and around which a vehicle or artificial vehicle is moving which has a mass m. It is following certain path the minimum distance of this vehicle from the center of the savagely body is armin. Now, let me just list all the derivations and expressions that I have derived. One of them is the expression for a we have derived this that a is equal to r min upon 1 minus epsilon and this we had called equation E.  We had called this equation F where this angle is theta and epsilon is the eccentricity of the path that is being followed which comes from the conic sections. Then we have got an expression for the orbital energy given by E which is equal to m v square by 2 which is the kinetic energy minus the potential energy this was our equation G. Then if I combine this equations I get an expression modified expression for a which is equal to minus G m prime upon 2 upon E by m is the modified equation for a I had called this equation J and I have got an expression for the period of the vehicle in an elliptic path around the planet which was given in terms of a as 2 pi a to the power 3 by 2 divided by square root of G m dash I had called this equation K. And then I have got an expression for what I have got is in this equation one thing that is so far not listed is the eccentricity. So I have got an expression for the eccentricity also epsilon square is equal to 1 plus 2 upon H by m square times E by m divided by G m dash square and I had called this equation no this I had not given any name it was equation I. We had an alternative expression for a epsilon the eccentricity in terms of the angular momentum. So that was eccentricity is equal to H square upon G m dash m square R mean minus 1 this was our equation D. So, this side I have listed now all the relevant equations which you have derived for the vehicle motion in an orbit. Now, before we proceed further I would like to define some more parameters particularly for the elliptic orbit. In elliptic orbit typically we do not say talk about R mean we talk about epigene perigee. So, let me talk about apogee and perigee little bit about the elliptic orbit and then I will list how we solve this problems. So, we are looking at an elliptic orbit this is an elliptic orbit and this is where our planet is and the vehicle is moving in this orbit. So, the least distance of the vehicle from the planet that is this point is called the perigee and the maximum distance of this vehicle from the planet is called the apogee. These are the defined properties. So, the minimum distance of the vehicle from the planet center is a perigee maximum distance is apogee and according to our definition then this is equal to R mean. We have shown that the eccentricity for an ellipse is in between 0 and 1 and we have also shown that R equal to R mean at theta equal to 0. So, at this point we have theta equal to 0. Now, we can show one thing here is if we are at this point if we are at this point we have the minimum theta is equal to 0, but if we are at some other point let us say here right there also theta is equal to 0 right, but does it correspond to this? No, because at that case epsilon is less than 0. So, corresponding to apogee so this is for this is for perigee corresponding to apogee we have theta equal to 0, but epsilon is less than 0 and it does not corresponds to R equal to R mean. So, this is something that again comes from the geometry of ellipse. So, now what we have is we call this distance R p. So, this is the distance of the perigee from the planet surface. We call this distance R a distance of the apogee from the planet surface. Then what is R a plus R p? R a plus R p is 2 times the semi major axis a because this was our a right. So, therefore, semi major axis a is nothing, but R a plus R p. This is something that is true for elliptic axis trajectory. Now, we have defined all the required properties. Let me now summarize our solution procedure. So, what we are going to solve first of all? We are going to find out the velocity increment required or the velocity of the vehicle in this orbit. If the vehicle is moving in a given orbit what should be its velocity? That is what we want to find out because that has to be given to our vehicle designer so that they can design the rocket accordingly. So, let me now define the problem that we are solving. We have given R mean. So, the minimum distance of the vehicle from the planet surface is given and we have a given extensicity epsilon. We see that if these two parameters are given R mean and epsilon are given then our path is specified. The orbit is specified. So, we have a given orbit now. Now, for this given orbit what are the things that we can find so that finally we can get the velocity? So, this first thing we can do is by R mean and epsilon are given. So, looking at equation E I can get A. So, first thing is A from equation E. I can directly get A. So, I am now getting more and more orbit parameters. So, the semi major axis is now obtained. Once we have A for different values of theta if I look at this expression equation F R mean is given epsilon is given for different theta. Theta varying from 0 to 2 pi right the entire period we get R. So, second thing is we get R from equation F when theta varies from 0 to 2 pi. So, now what I see is that if my R mean and epsilon are given my path or orbit is completely defined. My A is obtained my R is obtained at every theta location. So, that orbit is completely defined. Now, the next step is if the orbit is defined what should be the vehicle velocity in that orbit. So, that the vehicle stays there. So, the next thing is third for that first we estimate the energy of the vehicle in this orbit E. So, let us get E from equation G. So, let me just drop this portion here. Then I will write here. So, from equation G I can get the total energy of the vehicle in this given orbit now. Now, my orbit is given then once I have that I go to sorry now E I will first calculate from here equation J. If I look at this equation A I have already calculated right I have already calculated A G is known M dash is known only unknown here is E. So, from solve is this equation J I can get the value of E. So, from equation J I get E. Next step is once I know E I come to this equation. This equation R I can put R equal to R mean or here I equal to R mean E is known we know that energy is constant everywhere. So, we can give this value which we have obtained from here only unknown now is my V square or V. So, I can calculate V from equation G. So, I know the velocity now that is required. Once I have calculated V and the period is known then rather the orbit is known then getting time period is very trivial. So, fifth is calculate tau from equation K where this gives me the time period. So, this is my procedure using this procedure we can calculate each and every parameter required to estimate the state of the rocket in its particular orbit or state of the satellite or vehicle in its orbit. So, I have summarized all the processes. Now, let us solve a problem to make it little more clear. So, let me first specify the problem. So, what the problem statement is let us say we want to launch 1000 kg payload. We want to launch a 1000 kg payload. So, my m is equal to 1000 kg and this is into an elliptical orbit into an elliptical orbit. Now, when we are saying elliptical orbit we have to specify these two parameters this always is needed the perigee is always needed. So, let us say the perigee of the orbit is given as 6.9 10 to the power 6 meters. That is the perigee the next thing we want to know is either the eccentricity or some other orbital parameter. So, that we can define the orbit. So, in this case let us say what is given to us is the apogee height r a. So, r a is the desired apogee this is equal to let us say given to be 2.76 10 to the power 7 meter. So, now the apogee and perigee are given we have to find out what is the velocity at perigee what is the vehicle velocity at perigee what is the vehicle velocity at the perigee this is what we need to find out. Now, I would like to point out here one thing that my angular momentum is constant. If angular momentum is constant and angular momentum we have seen as m v r if m v r is. So, if angular momentum is constant and my mass is constant therefore, h by m which is equal to v r is constant. Therefore, we do not have the same velocity everywhere in the orbit when it is closer velocity is higher when it is further away velocity is lower. So, since h is equal to m v r therefore, v r equal to h by m which is a constant. Therefore, as r decreases v increases as r increases v decreases which essentially means that at the perigee we have the maximum velocity and at the apogee we have the minimum velocity. So therefore, in this problem then what we have been asked to do is to find out the maximum velocity we could have place the question like that that what is the maximum velocity of the vehicle in its orbit. Then we have to say that the maximum velocity is going to be at the perigee which comes from this discussion. So, now coming back to this problem what is given to me is the distance of the apogee and the payload nothing else is given I want to find out what should be the velocity. So, for that let us start first from the definition of 2 a which is the length of the major axis is equal to r p plus r a r p is given r a is given. So, I can get an expression for the semi major axis a which is equal to half r a plus r p. Now, this values are given. So, I can calculate this this comes out to be equal to 17.25 into 10 to the power 6 meters. Now, once we have got this we go to our equations for a which says that a equal to r mean upon 1 minus epsilon and r mean is my distance at the perigee. So, this is equal to r p upon 1 minus epsilon.  If I solve this this is equal to 0.4. So, immediately we see that epsilon lies between 0 and 1. So, this is an elliptic orbit. So, instead of giving the apogee height if my epsilon was given and perigee was given I could have solved for a then we could have find out how much should be the apogee. So, the problem could have been stated as given epsilon. So, now I have got the extrinsity epsilon let us proceed further. We had proved that a is equal to minus g m dash upon 2 upon e by m. This was our equation j in the list of equations. So, from here we can get e is equal to minus g m dash upon a divided by 2 a. Now, the value of g is the universal gravitational constant. So, that is a non value and m dash now we are saying is our planet is earth. So, you have to know the mass of the earth m is the vehicle payload which is given 1000 kg a we have estimated. So, now we need to know the value of g and m dash. So, at the beginning of this discussions two lectures back I have given the value of g which is the universal gravitational constant is equal to 6.67 2 to the power minus 11 Newton meter square per kg square and the mass of the earth is equal to 5.975 10 to the power 24 kg. This is the mass of the earth. So, now in this equation we have g we have m dash we have m we have a everything is known. So, we just plug in all these values and estimate the value of e which is the energy in the orbit orbital energy. So, that comes out to be equal to minus 1.155 into 10 to the power 6 j. So, into power 6 joules now sorry 10 to the power 10 joules. Once again I would like to point out here that we had discussed that in elliptic orbit the orbital energy is less than 0 because kinetic energy is less than the potential energy. So, that is proved here. So, now we have the value of e we take this and put it back into the expression for our orbital energy then only unknown is v. So, let me do that go back to our expression for the orbital energy e is equal to half m v square.  Now, this is equal to e r mean which is equal to e r p because the energy is constant everywhere. Therefore, the energy at the perigee is equal to energy everywhere. So, I can write it now as half m v r p square minus g m dash m by r p where r p represents the distance of the perigee is equal to this e e which is equal to minus 1.155 into 10 to the power 10. If I look at this equation now this mass is given this velocity is what we want to find out g is known m dash is known r p is given e we have estimated. So, now we just put all of this back here and first of all I get m v r square by 2 equal to e plus g m dash m by r p. So, this is equal to minus 1.155 10 to the power 10 plus g is 6.67 10 to the power minus 11 m dash is 5.97. So, this is 10.5 10 to the power 24 m is 1000 divided by r p is 2.76 10 to the power 7. So, all these things are given to us I can now calculate first the kinetic energy in the orbit which comes out to be equal to 2.9 into 10 to the power 9 joules. Now I can get the velocity which is equal to the velocity will be equal to square root of this kinetic energy 10 to the power 9 into 2 divided by the mass which is 1000 kg. Now when I solve this I get the velocity at the apogee sorry at the perigee as roughly 2400 4 meter per second. So, this is the velocity that the vehicle must have in its perigee in order for it to remain in that orbit. It should have a different velocity in the apogee which can also be calculated. You can do that as a homework what should be the velocity of the vehicle of the vehicle at its apogee. We have got at the perigee you can find out what should be the vehicle velocity at its apogee and this is how we estimate the required velocity. So, now you can appreciate that first we carry out this exercise where the given orbit is given once we know the orbit then we estimate this velocity. Now we go to the flight mechanics part find out what type of configuration or what type of multi staging will give us this velocity increment notice one thing. So, now what we is given is ML payload. Now we have payload is given the velocity is given. These are the two parameters we needed for estimation of the distribution of mass. So, from there now we can get the mass distribution. Now the flight mechanics design is complete. Now we have the design parameters which needs to be given to the rocket motor designer to design the rocket motor. So, the next thing what we are going to do is start now with the rocket motor. What we are going to do first is that remember I have pointed out one thing that one of the things that made the rocket flight possible was the invention of Goddard of putting a D level nozzle after the rocket chamber combustion chamber. So, we will start from there. We will first look at the nozzle performance because the most important parameter in the rocket is the nozzle. So, we will start with the nozzle. We will look at the nozzle performance in detail, derive the equations that how the nozzle will give us the exit velocity. Once we have done that then we go to the chemical rocket performance in more detail. So, we will start first from the nozzle discussion. We will discuss the nozzle first what we will do is basic aerothermodynamic discussion of the nozzles. So, we will discuss the nozzle performance. One point is that I have mentioned that the over expanded nozzles, under expanded nozzles, ideally expanded nozzle at that time we had a very cursory look at those. Now we are going to more details of those that what will be the prevailing conditions for those cases. First we will do that then we go to the nozzle performance, discuss in detail the nozzle performance. There we will see that the nozzle performance to certain extent depends on what is coming to the nozzle, the inlet conditions which comes from the combustor. So, first you design the nozzle. So, we will look at the nozzle design which will. So, essentially now what we are looking for is the equivalent velocity. Now we have seen delta V. We know what delta V is required. Then we go to the flight dynamics. We look at for getting this delta V what is the equivalent velocity is required which is the job of the rocket engine designer and what is the R I required which is done as flight mechanics part. So, that what is done now we go back to the equivalent velocity. So, equivalent velocity is essentially coming from our nozzle. So, we will focus on the nozzle in detail, get the expression for equivalent velocity, do different case studies. After that we will see that equivalent velocity is a function of chamber pressure and temperature. So, once we are done with estimation we go back and then we talk about how do we estimate the chamber pressure and temperature that brings us the combustion part. So, then that will complete. So, as what I am saying is that a design is going backward. We first start with the space dynamics orbital mechanics, go to the that specifies the mission requirement. From this we estimate what should be the velocity, what is the payload we can put. Then we go to the flight dynamics part, look at in order to put this payload, what should be the mass distribution and equivalent velocity. Then we try to estimate the equivalent velocity by going to the rocket nozzle, then in order to rocket to function like that we need to have the pressure and temperature which comes from the combustion. So, we will look at the combustion. So, that will complete our discussion on the chemical rocket part. So, next thing now what we are going to talk about essentially is chemical rocket. So far we have not discussed. So, specific of any specific type of rocket what we had was essentially payloads and velocities etcetera. We are not talked about how it is produced. So, now we have to go to how it is produced. So, that will be our next topic. So, with that we complete our discussion on space dynamics. So, in the next class we will start from rocket nozzles. Thank you very much.


How much is on DAC and how do they fix it? Where do they go from here? Well, it's so easy to blame coaches. It's so easy to blame people like Jerry. But as an NFL player, you are responsible for your personal growth. You are responsible for getting better. You're responsible for analyzing yourself and taking the things that you don't do well and making them strength.  But whose fault is it? Because at this point, given as much experience in the support and cast and the resources they put around him, you expect him to be able to get to the next level, especially playing against a rookie quarterback. And we don't have Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs and we see how good Jalen's playing. And we got all these up and coming young quarterbacks like Dallas has to really question, what do I have moving forward?  So will we be good enough in the future? That is a real question in Dallas.


Before the dawn, they have gathered from the other places to celebrate a coming of age, the young girl. She dances, she faces east, the sun rises to her dance. The songs carry her feet, always the songs. They are blessings, prayers given by the con. Ancient messengers, teachers of the Apache way. The songs endure, they carry the stories. The singers tell it, hands clenched to the mouth, spreading the sound, feeling the feel. The Apache sunrise dance, naeas. This is a coming of age ceremony for Apache girl into a womanhood. Four days, little sleep, tests of endurance, strength, heart. This is her moment, her place. Family, friends, gather, celebrate. She receives lessons for a good life. She receives love and assurance. The gift of a thousand years of song. They are ancients. The songs and the stories carried on the tongues of our people share on the winter nights, around the fire, in the sweat lodge. During the ceremonies, the dancing. The con are the mountain spirits. They are the first teachers of the Apache way. When the crowns are worn, their power blesses the community through the dancers. The sacred ceremonies require their presence. The singer has learned his songs from others before him. There must always be four songs. Four is a sacred number. The four directions. The four seasons. The four colors. This guy is our brother. He awakes us at dawn. He sings with the wind. His tears are blessings to our corn, squash and acorns. The rain calls our plants out of the earth. We tend to the caterpillars and weeds, but the rain makes them grow. We watch for the rainbow to say it is through. It is always important to give thanks for the gifts. The rainbow dance is our expression of gratitude. The drum and the voice are the main instrument of the Apache. There are others. The flute was traditionally used for courting. Apache artists and storytellers Michael Lakapa's illustrations from his book The Apache Flute Player tell the story of a young man who is his beloved. It is said that a boy who plays a beautiful song on the flute can win the heart of a girl he seeks for his wife. The music enters her spirit within and causes her to fall in love. Ask an elder about an Apache concern and he or she might say the loss of traditions. Our culture has been passed down orally through our stories and music. Some say the young people are not interested in keeping our traditions alive. Teachers like Bonnie Lewis are dedicated to passing our songs and our stories on to the next generation. The sunrise dance is a Apache way to welcome a girl into a womanhood. The parents love the girl. They want this blessing upon her. At last, four days, the healing man guides her through the strong power. It is changing woman. There must be two camps, the girls' family and the sponsors. The food exchange honors each camp. They are gifts of love. It is time to take the food. A good man is chosen to dance in the front. He carries the tobacco, it represents prayer. When tobacco is smoked, you become part of the knowledge. They enter the camp and dance four songs in four places. The gifts are shared. They dance with the gifts. On the third day, 32 songs will be sung. Changing woman enters the girl's body while she dances next to her friend. The godmother replaces the friend and gives her support. The girl kneels and dances. It is the story of a changing woman being made pregnant by the sun. Nealine shows humility. You endure with power when you are unselfish. The girl lies down. The godmother massages the girl's muscles. This allows a changing woman to make the girl's body become soft. It can be molded to give her straightness, beauty and strength. The feet, the naïve, do it. The girl runs around the cane four directions. Her health is assured. On the fourth day, the sun rises. The paint is prepared for the blessing. The godfather takes the feathers. He dances. He paints the girl in four directions. He seals the lessons of a changing woman. The girl is pulled up by the feathers. She is returning from the spirit world. She accepts a role in the patchy life. And then it is ended. The father is so proud. He cries for his love and holds his daughter. She has endured great tests. She has grown through changing woman.