Welcome everybody to another episode of the nonprofit show. We're really excited to have you with us because today is fry yay And today is ask-and-answer This is a special day that we have at the end of every week Our viewers and listeners can write in text in call in Stop us on the street and ask questions and then we get somebody from fundraising Academy to join us in these discussions It's really funny Tony sometimes the questions are the same sometimes quite the similar questions come up every few months And then sometimes the questions are completely out of the blue and we're like what? It's kind of a for me. It's a fun thing to do this fun It really is today. We have Tony Belsinger director from National University Academies and the Relationship Center He is really the very first person that we on the nonprofit show engaged with and then We just like created this amazing Partnership and so we don't always get to have Tony back in the hot seat with us and we sure are excited when he is here Tony has been in the nonprofit sector Pretty much his whole life even as a teenager. I know you were doing fundraising and doing things No, it's true right when you think about kind of your pathway to where you are in the nonprofit sector Yes, I think many of us a very young age were philanthropic and raising money and and all of that good stuff and built some of those core skills Very early on I think so and I think it's a fascinating thing to see that trajectory That nobody could identify or really understand or talk about but when you step back and you think about it It's like, oh, yeah, that's what I did Yes, we always did so and what is happening and with us and when we have really Come ahead is our relationships with our presenting sponsors and those include Bloomerang American nonprofit Academy your part-time controller nonprofit thought leader fundraising Academy at National University Staffing boutique nonprofit nerd and nonprofit tech talk These are the foot folks that join with us day in and day out and really they make a difference And they allow us now to be at about eight hundred and fifty episodes. So It's a it's a lot That's great. Yeah, thank you Hey, you can get to the nonprofit show three ways you can scan the code and get the new app that Our amazing team at American nonprofit Academy led by Kevin Pace crafted for us It's remarkable. You can also find us on podcast formats and then of course streaming broadcast So however you like to consume your content get educated get inspired with you. So join us Okay, Tony, you ready? Yes. Yes, absolutely. Let's see what the viewers have sent us for this week Okay, this is like the best because this person signed it frustrated and Fresno I didn't know if that was you just protecting someone and we're getting creative So instead of saying anonymous you said frustrated and Fresno. I thought it was fantastic. No, they wrote frustrated and Fresno I just thought that was a hoot. Okay, but it's a good It's an important question and I bet there are a lot of people that have the same issue and frustrated and Fresno writes How can I get fellow team members and development to be putting better information in our database system?  So What do you suggest because I don't really have good answer a good answer for this Yeah, so, you know, so this is all around kind of Standards of practice right business norms within the organization and how do you get folks to kind of lean in into those? So a couple of things that I would recommend one is let's get everybody together and let's talk about The importance of the database system to be one Frustrated and Fresno thank goodness you have a database system to be frustrated with Because there are many organizations that don't have the capacity financial or otherwise to even have a database So so first, you know, let's bring everybody together. Let's talk about why we need a database Because maybe you're going to find out in the room that people are going to say we don't need a database And that's why we're not using it. So let's have a conversation around the why of a database I love it. Let's then let's have a conversation around the database. We're using maybe it's not user-friendly I mean, maybe there were things around the tool that's been selected or subscribed to that doesn't really support Either the culture of the organization the way that your fundraising team is working. So then let's talk about the tool Then maybe, you know, so now, you know, everyone has buy-in around the value and the wine. We talked about the tool. It's the right tool Then I think you need to consider whether or not you you need to implement some incentives Okay, you know for folks and and when I say it doesn't mean anything crazy But just kind of like they were the star database user for the week or for the month Or you know, so just think about ways to incentivize folks for using the system and using it the way that they they should use it Yeah, so those are those are just some of the things and then, you know Frustrated and Fresno when you're having your team meetings bringing those scenarios to the team meetings and saying This was the challenge that I had or this is how I feel like my time was wasted When I went to go, you know, use the database because x y and z wasn't there like I wanted to send this donor a Birthday card and we didn't even have the birthday and you know in in the system So really giving those real-life examples of how the information that isn't being provided is negatively impacting your success Might also help folks. So those are some of the things that that I would recommend I had the real pleasure of working with an International organization years and years ago that were struggling with this and It was really important because they were dealing with a lot of high-end Celebrity, you know donors, so it was really important that that kind of information, you know Stay within the organization and be there for someone else to be able to pick it up and carry it on But for whatever reason they couldn't they were in the position where they were able to build a Dashboard so a lot of stuff that they were using were custom and internal for the organization Like the the donor management system was something they built internally So they ended up investing in in building a much simpler kind of dashboard That communicated with the donor management system, but the dashboard was Much more user-friendly a lot easier to enter information and then that fed the data to you know The main donor management system again a lot of organizations are going to be in the position to create another custom Technology dashboard to support the other donor management system But that's just one example of the extent that some organizations go through to make sure that they're capturing this really important Information about their donors, you know, Tony you said something kind of interesting And I'm wondering if I had never thought of this and that is that Maybe your team members don't really Understand why it's important and how it's being used and they just think it's like another stupid task that they have to do That doesn't have any value or meaning and so I like your approach to say this is how it gets used And we can find statistics on every time you touch, you know a donor whether it be a Card or a thank-you or it's not like necessarily for an ask It's it's also I feel like it goes back to what we were talking with the fundraising Academy team on the cause selling cycle about The importance of building a relationship and it's this information that will help us do that. So oh for sure It's almost like a reeducation if you will No, I hope this helps I really do I I've been to Fresno. I can I know it can be a little frustrating Thank you for the creativity on the signature, right? It was great. That was great. I hope that I hope that that's helpful I mean, you know, it's I think folks, you know when we think about building trust amongst our teams One of the core pillars of being a building trust is logic So when you if you want to build your team members trust in the process They need to understand the logic behind it. I Love that that might just be the best message of the day, but we still have more questions So let's see if you can come up with something that beats that because that was pretty damn good. Well, thank you Judith from Los Angeles, California writes What is the protocol for a major gifts officer to communicate to existing donors that they are leaving and moving to another? Non-profit we're going to be experiencing this change and I want to have a precise action Plan so there are no surprises as this person Transitions to another organization I read between the lines and I hear Judith saying she's afraid that this major gifts officer is going to take donors That's all I think that that's always a fear, right? But but you know again, we're in a relationship business and and Julia if you and I have a Relationship and you're you know the major donor for the cause that I'm supporting and I move on to another Organization it doesn't mean you're going to be passionate about that cause To so it doesn't it doesn't it doesn't mean that you're naturally just going to follow me and be like come on Julia Let's you and you know Your philanthropic desires just follow me wherever I go right in some cases that does happen We all know that that happens because certain philanthropists really trust Certain development professionals and will follow them because they're going to trust the investment in their dollars, right? So here there were a couple of different things that came to mind as you were reading this one Judith Yes, you do need to have a plan and you do need to do whatever you can in all areas to you know We we always talk in my organization about the no surprises rule, right over communicate so that there there are just no surprises So the first thing I think about is what is the portfolio look like for this major gifts officer because you're again Relationships everyone's different your approach to communicating this change to this portfolio of Donors is going to be different depending on the donor So I would look at this I would look at this major gift, you know, look at their portfolio Who who is it appropriate to receive an email? Right, who can just receive an email, right? And then you can have the conversation should the email come from the CEO or executive director or should it come from? the The major gifts officer that's leaving Okay I'm I'm on the fence with that. I think it depends on Again the dynamics of the organization You know Kind of the culture some some CEOs are going to say oh no that needs to come from me You know and in most cases I would say if you're going to do an email It needs to be a joint message with joint signatures both from the CEO and from the major gift officer That's leading because you want that donor as the CEO or executive director You want that donor to know that you're in tune with what's happening? You know what I mean so that you're not just a statistic in their financials So there's that so again think about the different tiers within the portfolio for this major gift officer What are the most appropriate communication styles to retain those donors in some cases? You're going to want to set up a face-to-face With the outgoing officer and you as the ED or CEO Because I because very rarely unless you're promoting internally Very rarely are you going to have this officer's replacement for them to be able to do those kinds of introductions? Again unless it's an internal candidate and then you might have the opportunity as the outgoing officer to take the internal candidate To some meetings and introduce them. This is the person that'll be you know, managing the relationship moving forward, you know Blah blah blah, so so yes definitely support a plan You don't want to surprise donors by them calling one day and finding out. Oh the person's no longer there But again in the spirit of kind of cause selling and one-on-one Relationships think about the varying ways in which you're going to need to communicate this message to these these major donors You know, Tony, this almost seems like an interesting and sir. Just as Serendipity that this would follow the question about Keeping the donor database updated because a lot of this even though it's major gifts I mean it should that those stories should be in there, right? It should all be there. Yes Especially for someone that's a major gifts officer. I mean that implies You know that we're talking about high-level donors for your you know impactful gifts for your organization Yeah, all yeah, especially for you know, what I'm assuming, you know the level of investor For this particular officer. Yeah, you know, it's it's really interesting because when I first read this question And then I I read it aloud. I I could feel the fear in it But I think right out the gate your comment about look Donor investors don't just follow the major gift officers They might and there's trust but the reality is they might be moving to something that that doesn't capture the attention of That philanthropic donor and so, you know, it's it's not going to devastate an organization But you have to be smart and you have to have a plan. So yeah, Judith I hope this helps you and it helped me and I loved hearing about this Okay, let's go to another part of the I'm gonna say world From Richard in Newark, New Jersey Our board is thinking about finding an interim CEO for a retiring CEO My question is this how long does it take to find a qualified interim CEO? I keep hearing that full-time nonprofit CEOs are taking about 18 months to hire Wow, so that's I didn't realize that that's kind of the runway that was that we're looking at now for for full-time CEOs Well, I'm hearing that too. I'm hearing now Yeah, so So so Richard the the first thing I would say is boy I wish the nonprofit nerd was on this particular ask-and-answer because Jared is such a fan of of the interim roles within nonprofit organizations and there's a lot of value a lot of hidden value that folks don't think about when You consider an interim role, whether it be a CEO or development officer or the What that fresh set of eyes is going to see And and be able to share with you as just kind of like oh, you know, I kind of recognize this I don't know if you've seen this happening, but your incoming CEO You might want to make them aware of this happening, right? And then also as the When you hire an interim CEO or again any interim role when you do finally after 18 months, hopefully sooner Secure that full-time CEO You now have an interim that can really help onboard them So, you know, so think about your interim CEO in terms of the timeframe of the investment not just when You know the start date of your new CEO But maybe a month or even two months after to really give that CEO good onboarding support So definitely support the idea of an interim CEO How long does it take to find a qualified interim CEO that I'm not going to make up a number I'm not really sure what that runway looks like for an interim CEO I would venture to say that most interim CEOs are consultants So once you, you know find the right consultant, it's probably pretty turnkey from there, right? It's negotiating the contract and so Yeah, I don't think it's is hard I mean, I also think there's there are communities where there are more Interim CEOs right because you can just see where like trainings are and and Organizations once an organization has used it and used it successfully in a community that spreads like wildfire And the board members and you know the the ecosystem of nonprofit management is hip to it and goes Yeah, this is something this is a tool. We're gonna use because right you're right Tony. It's not a babysitting Mechanism it's somebody that goes in and almost does forensic work. They review all the pieces of the organization and kind of Do that deep dive into all the different Aspects of community service and Structure so that not only can you hire the right, you know the next CEO But then you can bring somebody in successfully and to your point on board them And so but yeah, I keep hearing it's a good 12 to 18 months to find somebody and this is not surprising given Where we are post-pandemic we we had an issue moving into the pandemic about a huge Swap of Non-profit CEOs and founders that were retiring many who held on and stayed on during the pandemic, right and then as you know, the all-clear is kind of going on right now at the time We're living in people are like, okay. I'm out. I stayed in extra three years. I'm tired or right. I'm John I'm so done. Yeah, so I mean it's interesting But yeah, you got a jump on this because Yeah, and Richard doesn't ask specifically in this question and I'm sure this is being considered but you know being very clear around what this interim CEO is empowered to do and the level of decision-making and You know, so you you to your point Julia. It's it's more than babysitting, right? You it's more than just keeping things afloat because you still want to keep things moving forward But it could be tricky for an interim CEO if the level of empowerment isn't really clearly defined, right? No, it has to be very specific and you have to have a board that can Understand that and and and also I think you have to have a board that steps up and says, okay You know we were meeting once a quarter. Okay. No, we're gonna meet You know or at least every month or the executive committee or you're gonna have to have something That's a little bit more engaging at that level. So yeah, I hope that helps. It's a really It's it's an interesting thing good for you for trying to have this concept moving forward It's not gonna be easy, but it's smart. Yeah, Jackie from Memphis, Tennessee writes in Do you have any guidance on what the average nonprofit board members should be paying for their annual give or get? We are updating our board requirements and currently get our give or get is only $100. This seems quite low Well, every board member should be giving should be giving at least a million dollars to their organization Okay, so probably right we solved all the problems we solved all the problems right everyone's gonna give a million dollars Well, Jackie, thank you for the question and what's really interesting is just this whole concept around give or get There's a resurgence in the conversation around get and get and and the the implications that that has to certain Boards and certain nonprofits, especially, you know more grassroots community-based organizations So I think the the first thing to focus on is Creating that culture of philanthropy that culture of giving within your board. So at least they're giving something Yeah, and I think we're We're a lot of this and this is just Tony's brain Where a lot of this came from with the give or get was when funders started looking for matching gifts and Where funders specifically in the grant world? We're asking the question What percentage of your board give or even more specifically? What you know, how much? Collectively like they want a dollar figure has your board contributed annually to the organization So that you know, so there are those types I think of scenarios that got us to this point where organizations are having this conversation one Should we have a give or get policy and then to Jackie's point? What should that give or get look like? So there isn't a one-size-fits-all answer I do agree though Jackie that your board members do need to be contributing something Because at least when we're applying for that grant we want to be able to say that a hundred percent of our board are Making a financial contribution even if it's fifty dollars, you know that there are twenty five dollars even that that they're contributing I Think I think also in this As as Jackie as you're thinking about what that amount looks like you have to think about You know equity amongst your board and inclusion amongst your board. I mean you want diversity in your board not only in terms of gender and Ethnicity and all of that but but you know diversity really in and financial status and diversity in the communities that they're living in right so so you're gonna So you just have to be really mindful of What that amount looks like and how that is going to impact all of your board members? And think about the other ways that they that they contribute and is there so when we talk about give or get You know When you if you're gonna raise it above a hundred dollars Really think about those board members that are going to be mostly impacted and think about the ways that they're already Contributing in the give category and think about how you're gonna soft credit them You know in the give and how you might be able to elevate that I love that idea of Soft credit. I've never heard it phrased that way. I like that. I'm also a big fan of Having a scholarship for this so that if you do have somebody that Could help you with that diversity and equity issue that then you can say yeah, no problem We have a fund for that especially if let's say you're a younger board member, right? I mean are you're you're not you're not earning at the level that your older board members are and you're at a different phase of your Life, there's no problem. I think of saying we're gonna scholarship that in for three years or five years or whatever Or you know rotating something like that. I think that's smart and maybe your give or get I just it's the first time ever thought really kind of thought of this But maybe your give or get is on a sliding scale Dependent upon their years of service. Yeah, so maybe your first year on the board. It's a hundred dollars Maybe your second year. It's 200. I mean, I don't know I mean, maybe there's something creative that could be done and and your give or get is based on your Years of service to the board. Yeah. Yeah, I think that's good. I think you have to be Flexible number one you need to know that you are right Tony donors and Funders and contracts that the nonprofits are engaging in are asking that question What percentage of the board donates and then the next level would be what's that amount? So absolutely, you've got to look at that and have that be something that the board understands why this is happening, right? I mean because it's a different I'm I would again again, Julia. It's that why right? It's the logic behind it logic Yeah, yeah, that's the lesson of the day for me. You know, I think the other thing too is don't Confuse board dues with the give or get and that's for another time But board dues can usually are used to pay for the operations at the board. So maybe food or Travel or you know labor whatever. So that's a different piece versus that other thing Okay, we don't have much time, but I do want to squeeze in one more question It goes by so fast. I know it does even for me This is a name with help and I'll tell you I took this name off because I didn't I didn't want it to be I Just didn't want it to be disclosed. You didn't you didn't you didn't name it sassy and St. Louis or something My god, I need to start doing that because that's actually that would be fun for me Yeah, name with help our CEO thinks we should do an employee audit questionnaire to determine employee satisfaction She is thinking we should have an outside company or person do this to keep it in arms length Do you think this is critical or can we do it internally? It will cost a lot less if we do it Of course, it's gonna cost a lot less if you do it, you know in internally and and and kudos for thinking that way Right. That's good fiscal management. It's like first. Let's think about the resources internally and the talent internally But I think for some type of employee audit or questionnaire That it does need to be done by a third party or an external source I just I just I just think that folks are gonna buy into the process. They're gonna find the results more credible If it's done externally, okay, I think that's yeah a good thing I just was talking to somebody about this like gosh This week and and the person said now that I'm thinking we were at lunch and she's like, yeah, I was asked to take You know a questionnaire about my organization and it came to my email and then it was sent from my email So even though it was anonymous They could identify me and she was like and it was really interesting. I was like, wow. Yeah, okay I mean, she's like, yeah, how anonymous was that? So, you know, yeah, I think you're right I think it should be done externally and I love, you know, the message of the day understand the logic and and Educate on that and then it you'll get better answers. It'll be more efficiently tabulated And I think it also takes it from a he said she said it pulls it out into a third-party Delivery of that information which is ultimately the thing you need and and then I mean I know the question doesn't really ask this but be prepared to do something with the data Be prepared. I agree with you Don't ask if you can't work on it because that's just that's so frustrating, you know, you know, yeah Be prepared to do something with the data. Yeah, absolutely Well, Tony Bell senior director National University Academies Relationship Center.  I do are to oh my gosh I learned so much from you And I always enjoy your spirit and your intelligence and so But you know, Tony's one of many people and I think they're all like this So check out fundraising Academy and you can access their their site through Fundraising dash Academy dot org and you can learn all about the different things that they're doing Pretty much most all of its free content It is remarkable if I'd had it in my community when I was starting out I would have raised millions more I can witness to you on that as a non professional non-paid fundraiser but a community partner Definitely, I would have done better for my community. So in my next life, right Tony, there we go Hey in my next life I hope I'm still thanking our sponsors and they include Bloomerang American nonprofit Academy your part-time controller nonprofit thought leader Fundraising Academy at National University staffing boutique nonprofit nerd and nonprofit tech talk These are the folks that join us day in and day out Tony this has been remarkable. You've given me a lot to think about today I think a lot of great information information. Yeah, head explosion all over the place because I'm going to lead With logic saves the day and logic helps move the needle That does it's always so good to see you. Thank you again for inviting me and and allowing me to be part of these conversations It's remarkable. Hey everybody. We like to end every episode with our message and that is Stay well So you can do well. We'll see you back here on Monday everyone. Thank you, Tony


course on dealing with materials data. I am Hina Gokhale. I am Guru Rajan. And we both have taken a journey along with all of you through the process of learning the basics of statistics and applying and using the tools to understand what the statistics does to the data. The purpose when we started this course was very simple that we wanted to have basic understanding of statistics before actually the tools are being put to use. So that the analysis that one does with the tools becomes meaningful. Also the purpose was that before in some cases before you perform the experiment itself if you do a little bit of a planning for experiment and understand statistically as to what analysis that you wish to do in future and for that what kind of you know experiment should be designed that also can come handy to you. But as I said before all these basic understanding is insufficient until you have the tool in your hands and I am sure Guru will agree with me on that front. Yes, surely. So the tool that we have used for this course is R which is a open source programming language. It is freely available and you can use it both in Linux and Windows and Mac whichever machine that you use. So it does not matter which platform you use. And on top of it there are lots of libraries that are freely available and it is very active community. So as we have seen in the design of experiments session there are programs that are being made available by people that are being developed and it also allows us to actually contribute to this community if we come up with a new library or program or any such development that we make. So that way it is a useful tool to have and it is a very nice tool to use and I hope you had enjoyed working with R in for the past 12 weeks. So 3 months. Yeah, it is a long time. Well, I would like to repeat once again few things here. You know these days the computing tools and computational techniques are very easily available and accessible to us on our even small laptop and they are very attractive because there goes in a data and here comes out a beautiful graph or nice table explaining something. The question is have we used the right tool or the question is whatever graphs and tables have come what do they say? Also the question becomes is that there are many options available which option to choose? These are the questions which can be answered only by understanding the basics of statistics. I once again say that if you want to use machine learning if you want to use artificial intelligence it is important to know the basics of statistics. You do not have to learn the great theories of statistics and probability but if the basic you know concepts are clear if the assumptions are known you know that when you try to use these tool what errors can occur or is this the correct tool for this purpose. If this information is available with you then the tools are put to use in the better way and therefore this course has throughout emphasized that what is the basics of statistics what are the assumptions made from where does they where did this procedure come and how to interpret the results and therefore we chose the open source software so that it is not bound by you know what you buy or what your organization can afford to buy but you can use it at anywhere and start becoming almost a data analyst what do you say? Yeah surely but like everything else in life I think we need a balance here. Yes. So my advisor used to say that nobody gets drenched in a simulated rain so you can freely go take the computer do lots of things with simulation and coding and programming and things like that. So that is one viewpoint there is merit to it I also strongly urge you to play with R take the data do things some of them might be silly some of them might be stupid some of them might be wrong and some of them might be great so it is fine to do that. On the other hand I have also seen a textbook on numerical methods for differential equations which said that you should resist the temptation for computation as long as possible in the sense that you should not just jump in because you just have a tool you know I have a hammer so everything is a nail I am going to keep a banking on top of everything so that is not the right way so there is a time to play there is a time to explore but there is also and there is lots of learning that happens when you are relaxed like that and you are just fooling around with things but there is also a time when you have to know the basics the background the setting in which we are doing what we are doing and intelligently steering our calculations through when we face difficulties or when we have some results interpreting it and doing the next right thing so that way it is very important to pay attention to the basics which is the statistical theories in this case and then using it and implementing it in our and so when you reinforce these two things the balance also brings you I think much deeper understanding. Yes I agree because I also find that just learning the theory for one thing it becomes very boring it does not remain any more interesting so if you apply the tools then you come to a stage where you realize you actually see the realization of what theory you have learned sometimes you learn by mistake also you have a hunch as they say it in art of data science that you have to have a hunch it is you cannot be exploring absolutely in dark using statistics so you have to have a hunch that my answer has to be in this vicinity or the solution has to come something of this form when it does not come you have to realize that something has gone wrong somewhere now it could be the tool and it could be the understanding of the theory so both of them go hand in hand and I think that is why we made it a point that this course we go through by having a theory and a practice a theory and a practice so that things could match with each other and you also do not get tired with this statistical theory so one week of theory and one week of playing around with data is what we have designed and I believe that it has worked well. So we have also made sure that even though things are together but they can also be independent by themselves so there is an option for you to just do the odd weeks or even weeks the theory weeks or the practical weeks so you can do one but it is the maximum benefit that you can derive is when you do both but it is not necessarily have to alternate so you can finish one and you can do the other or you can keep going back and forth which is the most recommended thing from us because you do something you go deeper into theory and then go take a practical case take a data try to do all that that you have learned think about it and like Hina was saying you should know what is the number that you are expecting you know I had a physics teacher who said before writing down approximately what you are expecting you are not supposed to solve the problem and once when you do this you also develop an intuition for the numbers you also develop an understanding for things you know you expect it to be this and then surprisingly you get something else and then you understand why and that is where the real understanding starts coming in so I have seen that with the data you have an innate understanding which I do not still have but that is because of continuous working like this and thinking through things and so we hope that you will do it whichever fashion you like but both the parts so that you will get the complete picture. Yes and with respect to statistics also we have not kept it very heavy with theory as you must have noticed very very basic concepts with starting with descriptive statistics and probability and random variable and some special distribution and we got into immediately with the estimation and hypothesis testing but the real applications have started with regression in which we have not gone into much of a theory. And in this area I would like to bring it to your notice that you must be feeling that on one hand somewhere in the course we have said that in the field of material science and material engineering the data tends to be not in a beautiful bell shaped curve they generally tend to be skewed and then we use central limit theorem and then we try to you know develop the theory for hypothesis testing regression etc using only normal assumption but if you recall when we go to the ANOVA it is made very clear that you do not have to stick to the distributions the t statistic the chi square statistic and the f statistic the z statistic will hardly play a role it will never happen that you already know variance. So, I am discounting that but this three statistic basically you have to understand is that if the values comparatively look very large then it is not meeting your hypothesis it is not meeting with your understanding that some parameter is 0 and therefore it is a critical region it is true with respect to the f statistic it is true with respect to t statistic only when you want to look into those tables or exactly find out what is the probability of critical region alpha type 1 error you need to make assumption on distribution that too I would say if you are doing simulation what I would do is I would simulate in about 10,000 times and find out the right number where does it fall by you know rearranging them in an order like we did for the Weibull distribution you do not have to actually know the distribution at all you just generate the numbers and do it. So, the point here I wanted to make is that if any time you felt that on one hand we are learning everything with the assumption of normality but on the other hand Weibull and log normal are more important for us is what is being said and then you have all skewed distributions then the solution lies here that it is the f statistic t statistic per se not the distribution which are important. So, from the point of view of using R what we have seen is that you can get lots of information just by plotting right you should try to explore the data as much as possible and visually reading information is still very useful and it is a good skill also to have. So, that is one second thing you should not hesitate to do simulations if it is needed and so we have dealt with simulation in several different scenarios and we have done different kinds of simulations you know bootstrapping or calculating or estimating pi for example. So, different kinds of calculations that you can do using simulations in general I have found that students typically depending on what they do get some kind of mental block the students who do more computational type of work typically spend more time on physics based models solving PDEs and things like that statistical simulations are relatively rare on the other hand those who do experiments do not even look at statistics or do any analysis even basic ones that you can do simply by taking origin or excel or R for that matter. So, we wanted to bridge this gap students who are comfortable with the terminology who are not put off by terminologies like hypothesis testing or Bayesian inference. So, just to give them that one familiarity that they are not afraid of hearing these words and it makes some sense to them and the second thing after they become familiar they try to explore it on their own and try to do similar things on their own. So, that is the purpose of this course that they are familiar with the terminology they know what is the at the back end and they are able to do it themselves using R. So, yeah I think overall that was our purpose and I think see this metallurgy as a in the eyes of statistician I find that it is a very peculiar subject maybe it is there in others I do not know. Generally the data generated generation is very expensive. So, you have 2 or 3 data at the most 5 data and we are very joyful and celebration mood for that that we have got a 5 or 7 data points. On the other hand today materials data science is going to play a major role because lot of past data is being generated and it is being stored as a database and we would like to make use of it. So, I feel that material science and materials engineering need a very strong techniques of statistics which in which on one hand n tends to infinity and on the other hand n is very small and this covers a complete span of statistics and computation only makes it possible. So, bootstrapping technique as you said or you know many other simulation techniques are the only ones in our hands when the data is very small while when the data is very large with the Bayesian inference regression models etc. etc. I mean you can go further even beyond this course you can use heuristic models such as artificial neural network or genetic algorithm or you know any of these heuristic models and use it. But when I say this again this course plays a very important role because when you use any of these models particularly I am referring to the heuristic model. The type 1 and type 2 error play a decisive role in deciding how good is your model and sometimes it is forgotten and it need not be forgotten it need not be forgotten I can go ahead and say that you should not be forgotten because that gives the strength to your model and that is one another take away I would say from this course that even if you try to apply data analysis techniques beyond this course some basic concepts that have been given in this course may please be kept in mind because here they may have been given in the context of for example what I gave right now is in hypothesis testing but then it applies to any situation where you are trying to make a judgment using a data and fitting a model to it. Yeah so to go back to the original point about the data. So the existing data is very limited so one of the things that we expect that will happen after you do this course is that you will curate data better even when data is available for example we discussed it in the case study on Hull patch many many information about the data is missing for example there is a grain size but the distribution information is missing. So unless you have the complete information then making inference based on that data becomes problematic and so we hope that all of you irrespective whether you are doing experiments or modeling will curate your data better. Second thing you will also make it available as much as possible for everybody mostly data is analyzed and it is presented in a form where the original data is lost and sometimes if you want to redo some of the analysis it becomes important to have the data in the original form. So we also hope that you will get into the habit of curating the data better and sharing it as widely as possible and go back to the literature again going back to the Hull patch study as for 70 years people have been using Hull patch and the conclusion we drew is that there is no evidence neither experimental nor theoretical to justify Hull patch. So maybe there are surprises waiting there if you go back to the data in the literature and put it in a form in which you can analyze it at a much broader level. So we hope that this course will help you do both and you will do it and get back to us about your experience. So overall can we say Guru that this course is a beginning. Yes. It is just a beginning you are starting a journey and we invite you to explore either side you can explore the side of complete computational data analysis or you can also explore the side to learn more details of machine learning and in machine learning different techniques that are being used and how the statistics applies there and how you can improve upon your computational capabilities by using those theory. So I think this course is just a beginning you cannot even call an introduction but it is just truly or dealing with materials data as a first step you know and you get the feel for the data is where we have started. Yeah and we will also give them an open invite that we both are open anytime they explore they want to find something new or they have found something new they are welcome to get in touch with us. Yes and we encourage you that you further explore the field of materials data analysis because it is going to be one of the very important field in the future. So we wish you that you this is a beginning of a very long journey of fruitful journey and a satisfying journey. So welcome to materials data and have fun. Thank you.


TFNN, headline, news update. Welcome folks. We had the Dow. Dow Industrial has finished up $256. We had the Nasdaq up $139, S&P up $50. You know what we're going to take a look at, folks, what you have out here? Yes, you had a market that was higher, huge contraction of volume. That is saying that you are not going to be able to sustain higher price. We are going into a volume characteristic of $146 million inside the S&P. The bottom line is that we did out here $76 million, so the correlation is pretty intense. That's on the daily. We can do the weeklies right now, and you're going to see inside the weeklies the same, capture the same number, meaning that last week we went up at $649 million. This week you did all $500 million, so you basically shot $169 million supply versus demand. Inside the NVX100, the three queues, same type of setup, $33 million shares. Yesterday you did $43 million, while you're going into $62 million on the daily basis. On the weekly basis of what you have here, same type of setup. We got to a higher high last week, trading at $281 million versus $228 million this week. Gold, gold contract continues to want higher price. Bottom line, finished out the week at $1742 million. You got in the higher range once again. Anything above this $1,707 million is the higher range. That same gold does want to make that move up to the 1850 mark. I suspect if we go take a look at the GDX, the XAU, the HUI, what you're going to see, all these equities moved higher this week. They got in another range. Right now the GDX is trading at $33.94. That took out the seven-year consolidation. That is telling me, folks, that next week, the next week after that, you are going to have some monster moves inside the metals market. We already had some monster moves. Many of these gold equities in the last six weeks are actually up 80% to 95%. That being said, the GDX took out the seven-year consolidation this week. That says the GDX cannot make a run to the $54 mark and we're only trading $33. So you're talking about some one monster number out here. Wilson bonds will flat for the week. You had the 10-year, today up three ticks, $139.04, the 30-year up $22 at $182.03. And King Dollar, King Dollar failed the whole price, bottom line, tried to get after that high out here today and it just couldn't hold price. It got up to $100.867, closed out at $100.265. To get in the lower range, you would have to get under $99.910. Have a great weekend, folks. Have a safe week and come back and visit us. Tell your friends about TFNN. Tom McGon, YouTube, hit TFNN. Have a great one, folks.


Nobody has any idea how pivotal a man named George Soros has been to the growth of this movement. The fact of the matter is that so much of what has made this possible, even this event possible and this movement possible, was the money that has flowed from him through DPA in other ways that's been pivotal. But you know, before there was George Soros, there was a man who made a lot of money very fast in his 30s, a sort of liberal libertarian guy named Richard Dennis and he was the one who provided the money that created the startup for the Drug Policy Foundation in the late 80s and early 90s before handing off the baton to George Soros. He's the one who provided that key money to get things going and so the biggest award we named after Richard Dennis and who I'm grateful has actually provided a little money this time to help make this event possible. Now, I should tell you, we've long had a rule about these awards at the Drug Policy Alliance, which we have never broken until just now. The rule was that nobody serving on the board of the Drug Policy Alliance could receive one of these awards. They just have to wait until they retired or step down or what have you and there's many people on the board of the Drug Policy Alliance who certainly merit receiving these awards. And so as we were considering who should get the biggest award that Drug Policy Alliance gives and we're thinking about various very worthy people, my colleagues involved in figuring all this out launched a revolt. It's got to be Ira Glasser, they said. I said, we can't do that. We can't do that because we have a rule. They said, we'll figure out a way to change that rule. So I spoke to some of the members of our executive committee and we launched a coup against the chairman of our board, Ira Glasser, to require that Ira Glasser receive the Richard Dennis award tonight. We are not providing any precedent here. This is a one off one time thing. But this is really personal and special for me because I get to give the award to a man who has fought for civil liberties, to a man who has fought for civil liberties and civil rights and justice in this country for over 50 years. To a man who started working at the New York Civil Liberties Union that assumed the helm of that organization in the 1970s, then became the executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union for 23 years from 1978 to 2001. He took that organization, which had been doing great work for many decades and turned it into a powerhouse in American politics. And even the last 10 years he was doing that, he started coming to Drug Policy Foundation meetings being here every year, joining the board of the Drug Policy Foundation almost 25 years ago, becoming its chair in the late 1990s, even while running the ACLU. And then when the time came in 2000 for me to spin the Linda Smith Center out of the Soros Foundation and when the Drug Policy Foundation had fallen on some hard times and the time came to merge those two organizations into the Drug Policy Alliance, Ira and I got together and said, let's do this. Let's do this. I told Ira, I can't do this without you. If we're going to build something here, we need a partnership. We need a partnership. So what Ira has accomplished, not just out front running the American Civil Liberties Union, not just out front as chairman of the board of this organization really since its inception, what he has accomplished behind the scenes in terms of being my partner and a partner to my colleagues in building Drug Policy Alliance and building this movement and providing the steady hand in mentoring me and being my dear friend and my brother and being an extraordinary leader willing to get out front and also get behind me in this organization and to embrace DPA as his true love of the past 15 years. I cannot imagine anybody more worthy of this award nor anybody I would get greater pleasure in presenting this award to. So these are going to be the last words you're going to hear from me at this conference. I'm going to invite Ira Glasser up here to receive this award. I'm going to ask Crystal to follow him by bringing us into song to close this and then you're not going to hear from me. That's going to be the end of the night. So Ira, please come on up. I'm wearing a suit. About eight of you have come up to me with astonishment as if I was someone in disguise and said, you're wearing a suit. Well, if you like it, take a good look because you won't soon see it again. This is a real thrill. It really is. And not just to get an award like this from people you love and respect and with whom you've been in the foxhole for decades. It's a thrill to get it at this conference at this time in this place with this audience. When I first started coming as the ACLU Executive Director to these conferences in 1989, having already sort of been in this struggle and feeling very alone in it for 20 years, I was astonished and encouraged by finding 300 people who were at the conference. That was the biggest group of organized opponents to the drug war that I had ever seen in 20 years of fighting it at the ACLU. And I thought that was a lot of people. And now there were 1500 people here this conference. And the 300 people were the whole iceberg. That was the whole organized opposition. The 1500 people are the tip of the iceberg. And the nature of the iceberg has thrillingly changed too. Icebergs are all white. Back in the day, there was not a single person of color among those 300 people at that conference. And I remember the first time I got up to take note of that, since the people who were being targeted by this war and who were its primary victims in whose behalf we said we were fighting this war or thought we were weren't in the room. So what did we know? It was mostly about our own personal rights. There were a lot of stoners among those 300. Well, good for them. We were for them. That was the issue. That was the issue of personal freedom and liberty. But they weren't the only ones. They weren't even most of the ones. And it was a long haul, not only to build the constituency at these conferences from 300 to 1500, but more importantly and more significantly to change its composition to what you see today. That was not easy. And that is thrilling to me. So we come together at really a high time in the movement. No pun intended. But this is a moment of great progress. It is a moment when the horizon of justice seems closer than it's ever seen before.  And that is, is that be encouraged. Be optimistic. There is reason to be encouraged. There is reason to be optimistic. We are ahead and we are gaining ground and we are beginning to win. But resist premature celebration. Celebration, as my Mets found out, when you're ahead in the eighth inning, doesn't work because there's a ninth inning. Wait until the game is over. Celebration causes you to relax. And there are opponents out there who are smart, better resourced, more of them, more powerful and just as relentless as we are. Do not relax. Don't celebrate yet. And beware of a few other things as we move forward into this, into this, what seems, what feels like a home stretch. But it isn't yet. Beware of partial victories. In the, in 1973, in 1973, Roe v. Wade declared all criminal abortion laws unconstitutional and out. We celebrated. All of us who had been in that fight for years and for years thought it was pretty much over, except for a little mop up. I remember going for my offices at the Civil Liberties Union over to the New York Planned Parenthood offices where they were having a white wine and cheese party. And everybody was exultant. And while we were celebrating, and while we were sleeping, and while we were congratulating ourselves for our victory, the other side almost rolled it all the way back. And today, there are more women still who don't have the reality of reproductive rights that we thought we had all along. And a lot of us did have it. My daughter had it. My aunts had it. If you were white, middle class and lived in certain places, you had the right to reproductive freedom. But if you were rural, and you were of color, and you were young, and you were poor, you didn't have it, you still don't have it. And there are still people like Lynn Paltrow spending her whole life trying to get what we thought we had back then. So be careful of partial victories. And be careful not to leave people behind. Because when white middle class women got the right, they weren't marching to Washington with 500,000 of them to win the right for some poor woman in a remote area of Texas after all of the clinics had been closed. You need to maintain the constituency for everyone. And as those t-shirts and sweatshirts that you've been seeing all over the conference has said, it's all of us or none of us. And if freedom and liberty are truly indivisible, and what that means in fact is, if all of us aren't free, then none of us are free. So beware of partial victories, and beware of leaving vulnerable constituencies and targets and victims behind. I also want to warn you and us to remain alert to new forms and new systems of subjugation. Remember, everybody thought after slavery when the civil rights amendments were passed in the Constitution, the 13th and 14th and 15th amendments, that liberty and freedom and equality were now guaranteed by law, and slavery and subjugation was over. It was for about 10 minutes. And then the black codes came in. And then Jim Crow laws came in. And then the Supreme Court backed off. We don't have a Supreme Court that's backing off because it isn't there yet.  And then racial subjugation existed in the South and in much of the North for another hundred years in a slightly different form, but no less oppressive and no less destructive. And when the civil rights movement achieved in the mid and late 60s, civil rights statutes that ended Jim Crow, again we thought we had finally achieved a measure of justice and we had ended something. And almost immediately following upon those victories came the declaration of the war on drugs. And it was targeted intentionally and from the start against people of color. And while we congratulated ourselves on having won the right to vote for the Voting Rights Act of 1965, the right to vote was systematically stripped away again by felony disenfranchisement laws and felony convictions for nonviolent drug offenses, not in the hundreds of thousands, but in the millions. And I'll tell you if Martin Luther King Jr. was looking down and could see about the right to vote, he would know what we know too. That many of those who died for the right to vote in the middle 60s have to say we don't have it yet. That the war on drugs became another way of subjugating people on the basis of the color of their skin and another way of separating them out from the rest of society. Slavery was a prison, Jim Crow was a prison, and our prisons are prisons too. So beware as we unravel this war on drugs of new forms and new systems for subjugation arising out of the rubble. Because the war on drugs may end the same way that Jim Crow ended, but the impulse for subjugation based on skin color will not end, has not ended, is alive and too well in the society, and it can and probably will emerge again if we are not careful and alert to it. So do not get seduced by our victories into thinking that what drove those repressive systems is not still lurking out there. Now, we often hear about more and more these days about the moral arc of justice and the moral arc bends toward justice and it is intoned and said and repeated as if it's kind of automatic, you know, like you drop an apple and it falls to ground and the moral arc of the universe bends toward justice. Right. All you have to do is wait around and it'll bend. Well, the moral arc of the universe may bend toward justice, but it sure as hell doesn't bend by itself. It never has been by itself. It never will bend by itself. You have to bend it. I have to bend it. We have to bend it. And you have to keep bending it because it has this crazy resilience. If you let up, it unbends itself, it backs up and there are other people out there bending it back all the time. So you have to keep bending it. You have to step on it. You have to lean on it and you need more and more people coming into the movement to get on pile on the pile and bend it and bend it or otherwise it will not bend toward justice. Another another cliche about this movement and all movements is that it's not a sprint. It's a marathon. Okay, we all know that. But you know, it isn't just a marathon. A marathon like, you know, the New York City marathon 26 miles. It has a beginning. It has an end. And it's over. Our marathon is not just a marathon. It's a marathon relay race. And it doesn't have an end. I got on the track a long time ago. I'm carrying this baton and I'm running and I'm running and for a while I think I'm running alone with two or three other people and then there's a few hundred people. But there's certain people not there. And then there's 500 people and then there's a thousand people and then there's 1500 people. And now everybody does seem to be there. And now we're running hard. And now we begin to see that we're making progress. But do not think that the race has an end for you. Because justice is not attained ever by the brevity of our own lives. Our role is to get on the track, take that baton, link arms with others, run it as hard and as fast and as long and as smart and as strategic and as relentlessly as you can. But the race will not end by the time you need to get off.  So if there are not other people on it running with you ready to take the baton, the race cannot be won. So one of the things that is thrilling about this conference are how many young people there are. Because I'm pretty energetic for an old guy. I can still run pretty fast if I need to for a little bit of time. But I'm basically on the sidelines off the track jogging along with you all, you know, and if you don't have a lot of young people coming on the track to run that race, that race cannot be won. So one of the thrilling things and one of the things we have to keep on doing is bringing new people on. I'm happy to see all folks that I see every couple of years here that I first began to see in this fight 25 years ago. I love seeing them again. But we are relics. We're not going to run this race that much longer.  You know, when I when I first started fighting this thing, I had four children and the oldest one was about five or six. And now, and when I retired from the ACLU, I had two grandchildren. One of them was one of them is four. The four year old is now 20 and a sophomore at the University of Pittsburgh, and now writes me text messages asking me questions about politics and social justice and and and maybe drug policy. But I have 10 grandchildren now.  Or we will not get where we're going. How many of you have ever heard of a man named Vince Lombardi? Good. That's more than you usually find in a kind of a liberal audience. Vince Lombardi was a legendary football coach. I know, I know that Deborah Small paid homage to my my obsession with baseball the other day, when she used the baseball analogy. But Vince Lombardi was the most famous football coach of his time. And he he he was the most successful football coach of his time.  And person after person got up and talked about how many more games he had won than he lost. And when I was all finished, he got up. And he leaned out on the lectern. And he said, Well, you know, actually, I never lost a football game. Once in a while, time ran out. And I always loved that story, because I thought when I heard it, that in our game, time never runs out. We have a team that keeps on going and keeps getting regenerated. And new folks keep coming in. And we just keep playing. And when we're on that track, we just keep running. And if we stumble, we get up and we keep running. And if we get knocked back, we get up and we call another play. And we keep running. And it has been for me much more than any specific award could ever be. It has been for me such an unbelievable honor. And as Neil said, a blessing, a blessing to run with you for as long as I have and to keep running with you. And so my message is keep running. Don't be frustrated if you don't get there, because you probably won't get there. But you'll get closer. The horizon of justice is ever closer. And we are advancing on it every day. And if you don't get there yourself, hand the baton to someone who will keep running. And if you stumble, get up and keep running. And if you fall off and some other people fall off, get back and keep running. Here's my shirt. You know, I'm, I'm so manipulative. I knew if I said this, I would finally get one of these shirts. And you'll see it. You'll see it before you see a suit again, too. Thank you. Thank you. So, so keep on running, no matter what. Don't worry too much about getting there or here. As I said, some of us will fall off the track. There'll be others to get on. Some of us will stumble and fall down or get knocked back by our opponents. We'll get up and keep on running. Keep on running. Keep on keeping on because that's the way the race is won. Thank you.