We will continue our discussion on the Indian Ocean and the monsoon today and I said that it is important to understand how the variability of convection in the monsoon region depends on the variability of SST of the North Indian and Equatorial Indian Ocean. So I am going to first talk about an example which is the aberrant behaviour of the monsoon in June 2009. So what happened in June 2009 was very intriguing. After an early onset over Kerala on 23rd May, the advance of the monsoon over the Indian region was delayed by about two weeks with the monsoon restricted to the west coast and southern peninsula until 24th of June. So you can see what happened here see actually these are the dates of onset when the monsoon is supposed to come the mean dates by 15 June it should have come here and by 24th it should have come somewhere here instead of that by 24th June the northern limit of the monsoon was still this one and because of that see all these regions had very very high deficits in rainfall all these subdivisions because monsoon had not come there at all only in the south we got some rain and so what happened was that this resulted in a massive deficit in the All India rainfall of 54 percent of the long term average for this period. The All India rainfall for the month of June was rather close to the lowest recorded rainfall which is 50 percent in June 1926 since 1871. So it was close to a record in terms of deficit in June and of course this was not predicted by anybody. Now let us remind ourselves that the onset phase of the monsoon commences with the onset over Kerala in late May or early June and culminates with the establishment of a TCG over the Indian monsoon zone north of the peninsula in July we have already seen this the onset phase comprises one or more northward surges of the rain belt across the peninsula this also we have seen these are seen as northward propagations of cloud bands in satellite imagery stretching from the Arabian Sea across the Indian region to the Bay of Bengal. Now the variation of low LR band at 85 degrees east over Bay of Bengal we will look at it we have going to look at it for the May to July period for a season with typical advance of the monsoon India onset phase which is the season of 2008 along with this aberrant onset phase in 2009. So what you see here above is 2008 and here you see 2009 we got a reasonably good onset but after that you can see 85 degrees east is a longitude just across the Bay right it is slightly to the west of Kolkata it is going across the Bay so this is the first northward surge but you see what happens in a typical year is after the northward surge then the band hangs here in the monsoon zone that never happened after this the band kept on appearing over the Bay but for very very short periods two days three days and so on whereas you see typical year this is what would happen but you also see that there was some convective activity over the equatorial Indian ocean you see equator to 10 south you kept getting a seesaw between convection here and here you can see this band had become prominent then this got born it died this band was here then this got born it died and so it continued till about 24th of June. So this is the story which is very different from a typical onset phase of the monsoon so prominent feature of the variation of 2008 is a series of northward propagation from south of the equator to north of 25 north beginning with one in the first half of June after this propagation which was associated with the advance of the monsoon the convection persisted over the region 15 to 27 north for over a month except for a short gap of three days we have seen that once this advanced it persisted over this zone for several days except for a gap of very very few days. However in 2009 after the propagation in late May the convection disappeared after two three days we have seen this once it propagated here after two three days the convection just disappeared during 1 to 24 June the convection over the bay appeared intermittently over the region between 10 and 20 north we have seen this also see between 10 and 20 north is this region so the convection went on appearing and disappearing it appeared intermittently in this region and it was not sustained for more than three four days and no propagation occurred over the Indian longitudes of 1780 also the story was the same there were short spells of convection over the region between 10 and 20 thus there was a delay in the advance of the monsoon and until 24 June the monsoon rains were restricted to the region south of 20 north so clearly the question to be addressed is why was convection over the bay not sustained during 1st to 24 June 2009 now we know that in 1st to 24 June 2009 convection occurred frequently over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean east of 80 degrees east in the 0 to 10 degree south belt whereas convection over this region occurred for very few days in 2008 this is something we have noted before that here between equator and 10 south hardly any days of convection but for 2009 you see large number of days with convection here so in fact we will I will show now that this aberrant behavior in June 2009 can be attributed to the SST of the bay vis-a-vis that of the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean so this is an example to show how variability of SST can have a direct impact on the monsoon now we know we have discussed this often that the CTCG is actually maintained by propagations from the equatorial ITCG or equatorial tropical conversion zone on to the land we have also noted that the relationship between CTCG or the tropical conversion zone in the latitude of the monsoon zone and the oceanic TCCG is very complex on the one hand the TCCG over the ocean helps in maintenance of CTCG by moving northward but on the other hand it also competes with it and this is something we have seen now we have also seen in our discussion of inter-annual variation as well as intracesional variation that is to say active and breaks that convection over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is unfavorable for the monsoon so that is the region over which if a TCCG appears it competes with the monsoonal TCCG while that over the western part is favorable for the monsoon and you can see that here this is the correlation between OLR and ISMR all India monsoon rainfall and you can see that there is a inverse correlation between the rainfall over India and here whereas rainfall over the monsoon region depends on the rain over the bay and the rain over the bay is negatively correlated to the rain over the eastern equatorial and central equatorial Indian Ocean whereas it is positively correlated with the western part this is for the seasonal scale on the intracesional scale also we have seen that if we look at the break composite the biggest signal is that when there is a break there is a flare up of convection here over eastern and central equatorial Indian Ocean and in an active phase convection over eastern and central equatorial Indian Ocean is suppressed so the competition between convection over the bay and the monsoon zone is with the eastern part eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and not with the western part in fact western part is favorable so we know this and we saw it also actually in the pictures that we saw here here also we could see that in 2009 as I mentioned this died and then this was born this flared up again after this died but again this flared up and this died and so on and so forth so you see a seesaw in activity here this also suggests that there is a competition between the convection over the bay between 10 and 20 north and the convection over equator to 10 south over the same longitude. So, the question to be addressed is now so we will now see why is it that the equatorial TCG was hyperactive in June 2009 at the cost of the TCG over the Bay of Bengal and we think we believe the answer is in the sea surface temperature distribution and this is the sea surface temperature SST and you see this is the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean this is the western equatorial Indian Ocean and this is the Bay of Bengal which we are concerned with this is the region over which disturbances form and then move on to the Indian region. Now you can see that the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is definitely warmer than the Bay of Bengal and in fact this is a manifestation of the fact that you had a lot of cooling over the bay that year in a cyclonic storm was there in May which led to a lot of cooling here so that there is negative SST anomalies over the bay and positive SST anomalies over EIO. So, you have a situation in which the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is warmer than the Bay in the month in which the onset phase occurs which is the June month. Now let us look at we have two data sets Reynolds here and TMI here TMI is the more modern one and it is always a good idea to see whatever result you get from one also holds for the other data set it should not be dependent on the data set itself. Now what you see here these hairs they correspond to every year for which data are available and they are what are they I have already shown you the regions which we are interested in this is EIO and this is the Bay of Bengal and we believe at least the pictures of low ELA region have shown us that there seems to be a competition between these two regions. So, we look at the SSTs of those two regions so this is the SST of EIO, this is the SST of BB Bay of Bengal and this is the difference in the SST of the two EIO minus BB. Now what we have done is we have plotted the mean which is climatology we have plotted 2008 which is blue and 2009 which is red. So, let us see what happens see climatologically you see that right from April onwards this is plotted from April onwards the Bay of Bengal SST builds up and it slowly starts decreasing with the onset of the monsoon this is climatology. Now what happened in 2008 the Bay was a little bit cooler in the early part of May but then made up and then was slightly cooler than the climatology. But what happened for 2009 is that you saw that after mid May sudden cooling occurred and till about 24th of June or so it was definitely cooler than climatology. So, Bay is definitely cooler than climatology in this year on the other hand eastern equatorial Indian ocean has been warmer than climatology throughout June, July and even part of August. So, whereas 2008 it was colder so we have a case in which EIO is warmer than usual throughout and Bay of Bengal is colder particularly in the critical time when the advance has to occur in the onset phase. Now what what does the difference show as we expect in fact the EIO is warmer than the Bay of Bengal throughout 2009 whereas it is colder than the Bay of Bengal throughout 2008 and climatology says that by and large up to about third week of June EIO tends to be colder than the Bay afterwards they are very comparable. So, during the advance phase the mean SSD gradient is such that the Bay is warmer than the eastern equatorial Indian ocean. But what we see here is in fact opposite occurred in 2009 whereas in 2008 when we got very nice propagations and a very nice advance actually the eastern equatorial Indian ocean was colder than SSD. Notice that what I have talked about is so far for Reynolds also holds very much for the TMI again the same story and you see that eastern equatorial Indian ocean is warmer than the Bay in the critical period throughout that is to say from beginning of June throughout and this is what we believe has done the damage. So, at the beginning of June the SSD of the Bay was colder than almost all the years while the SSD of EIO was warmer than that of almost all the years. Consequently EIO in June 2009 was warmer than the Bay by almost one degree you see this if you look at June then this is almost one degree EIO was colder than Bay of Bengal by almost one degree in June. Note that while the SSD of EIO during June 2009 is the warmest SSD for June July 2008 is the coldest this also we have seen that while the SSD is the warmest here for EIO it is the coldest of all the years. So, it was an exceptional year in terms of equatorial warming. The difference in the SSD is positive and highest for 2009 and negative and almost the largest magnitude for 2008. Now, so what has happened is we have two tropical convergence zones competing with one another one is in the Bay between 10 and 20 north and the other is over the equatorial Indian Ocean between 0 and 10 south over the eastern part of the equatorial Indian Ocean. While normally the Bay is warmer and so the Bay TCC has an edge over EIO TCC. What has happened in 2009 is that EIO is warmer than the Bay in that critical time when advance of the monsoon should take place over the Bay and it is this high SSD of EIO related to that over the Bay which gave an edge to the TCC over the equatorial Indian Ocean in the competition with the TCC north of 10 degrees over the Bay in June 2009. So, this is a case in which we see a case of impact of SSD variability gradients of SSD reversing from east equatorial Indian Ocean to the Bay which have had a major impact on the TCC or cloud systems over the Bay and because of this the TCC or cloud systems over the Bay were therefore not sustained for longer than 3-4 days. No low pressure systems had been generated over the head Bay and westward propagation across the monsoon zone which is a characteristic of the onset phase of the monsoon did not occur. So, this is an example an interesting one in which the SSD field in June had a very large impact on the advance of the monsoon and hence on the monsoon itself because actually the deficit that was so huge in June was never made up till the end of the season because the rest of the season also turned out not to be very good for other reasons. So, this is just an example to say that all the effort we put in in trying to understand how SSD evolve and eventually we would also like to model how SSD evolves predict how what will be the SSD in the forthcoming season and so on. Why is it important because it can have a direct impact on the competition between the different TCCs and thereby on the monsoon itself. Now, I will not dwell too much more on the Bay of Bengal Arabian Sea and their relationship to the monsoon, but what I will now do is to go over to the equatorial Indian Ocean atmosphere system. See so far we have been talking of what is the North Indian Ocean comprising Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and we have looked at the mean patterns how they evolve and also tried to I tried to show you how the kind of impact these temperatures can have on the monsoon. But now let us go to the equatorial Indian Ocean system. So, first of all let us consider the variation of SSD and OLR over the equatorial region. Now, notice that this is now January and February notice that the equatorial Indian Ocean is warmer in the east than in the west and west is in fact rather cold it is below the threshold. So, along the equator if we look at then west is warmer I am sorry east is warmer than the west. Now, this is opposite of what we saw in the Pacific and we will keep seeing that the picture is somewhat similar to the Pacific except we have to invert east and west. Now, February again same thing east is much warmer than the west along the equator and this is the low OLR region here and you see that along the equator January and February the low OLR region is largely restricted to the south southern hemisphere and in fact also restricted to the eastern part of the basin and much more restricted in February. What you see here in red are contours of 27.5 and 28 the possible thresholds in this region and what you can see is that a large part of the ocean which with SSD which is warm enough to have convection in fact does not have convection this is true of January as well as February you see this part could have had convection, but does not have. Now, we come to March and April and these are lines that show 10 south to 10 north and in March and April everything has warmed up you see these are very very high temperatures here and so the northern hemisphere because the sun has moved now over the equator and in April it is slightly in the northern hemisphere vertically above and you see this is a large body of very warm water in April and this is the warm water in March. Now, what happens to the low OLR region? Low OLR region in this case again occupies a very small part of the warm ocean it occupies only the eastern part small region here, but notice that now it has also come to the northern hemisphere earlier in January February it was restricted to the southern hemisphere. Now, it is stretching across the equator and is a but is very much restricted to the eastern part. So, now we come to May and June and the SSDs are getting hotter and hotter and this is June by June of course, the onset has occurred and SSD particularly of the Arabian Sea has cooled a lot and Bay also has cooled somewhat, but in May the SSDs here are very high and the maximum SSD is of course, in the northern hemisphere now because this is the northern hemispheric summer. Now, let us see what has happened here is again we see that the low OLR region is restricted to the eastern part, but has spread somewhat to now come also to the southern tip of eastern Arabian Sea here. So, we have a low OLR region stretching all the way from 70 to 90, but the maximum intensity of convection is still around the east and this is the case for June again like I said for the other months only a small part well I would not say a small part only a fraction of the ocean with the SSD above the threshold has convection on it the rest of it does not have convection on it, but notice that the entire ocean is rather warm in May. Now, in June this upwelling begins to develop here. So, this begins to get cold and now you see a fairly large part of the warm ocean now is covered with low OLR covered with clouds. Now, you also see that in June the convection here is as strong as the convection in the bay. Now, we come to July and August and you see this typical pattern where you see ocean here is very warm equatorial Indian Ocean is warm and bay remains warm, but the Arabian Sea is cooling the warm pool region of the eastern Arabian Sea is shrinking from in July at least you see it here, but in August you do not see it anywhere near the northern part of this coast it is only restricted to the southern part of peninsula. So, SSD is cooling very fast what is happening to OLR both for July and August you see almost it looks like the dynamics is very favourable and that is why almost the entire warm pool is covered with deep convection as evins from the OLR maps that in July and August also almost both of these months the warm pool is covered with low OLR. Now, this is the climatology of SSD along the equator for September and October. Now, you see this has almost with the withdrawing of the monsoon and withdrawing of the clouds things slowly begin to warm up again and you can see by October quite a large pool of warm water has built up over the Arabian Sea here. So, and this is the low OLR region now you see particularly in October a large part of the Arabian Sea has no convection although it is above the threshold. So, although a lot of cooling of the Arabian Sea took place during July, August and we are taught in fact that northeast monsoon does not rain too much on this side because no systems form in the Arabian Sea because it has cooled but actually it has really not gone below the threshold. So, we have to attribute the lack of rain over this part during what is called the northeast monsoon or what we call the post monsoon to dynamics somehow again the low OLR region is getting restricted to the eastern part of the basin and this is November, December now a lot of warming has taken place but of course, cooling of the northern parts because the sun has gone to the south and again the low OLR region is restricted to the eastern part. So, what we have seen is that there is a warm pool region there is a region over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the West Pacific in fact, which remains about 28 throughout the year and this region is about 29. So, if you look at annual SST this is the entire warm pool of the Indo-Pacific region and this is the SST variation of the equatorial region remember we saw a similar picture for the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal now we are looking at the equatorial region. This is the region of Somalia where a lot of upwelling takes place. So, what you see is initially the SST builds up till April-May then it decreases very rapidly to become almost minimum in August and then builds up again. So, this is the SST in the western most part of the equatorial region whereas, in the central equatorial region you can see it is very, very dull SST is above the threshold and starts decreasing only after September and also in the eastern part just of Sumatra now again it is above 28 throughout the year, but is somewhat colder in October, November, December. So, this is the variation over the equatorial region. Now, we have been talking about the thermocline how deep is the thermocline and we have seen that for El Nino in the Pacific you know the thermocline was very shallow in the East Pacific and very deep in the West Pacific. Now, here opposite situation holds in January you see yellow colour means deeper thermocline what they have plotted is depth of the 20 degree centigrade isotherm. So, the deeper it is the larger the depth it means deep thermocline here. So, if you look at the equator then the thermocline is shallower over the West then it is over the East in January. Now, let us see what happens there are also winds there which we will come to these are the winds in June you can see this is the southwest monsoon this is the strong southwest flow that occurs and here also still the eastern part of the equatorial Indian ocean is deeper than the western part. And same story continues in August, but notice that in the Arabian sea you get a very very deep thermocline here and again in November this has become even deeper than before and this has become shallow. So, we have this East-West variation in the thermocline depth the thermocline being deeper in the East than in the West this is almost a mirror image of what happens in the Pacific which we had looked at. Now, let us look at a vertical section of temperature along the equator from the East coast of Africa that is from here to Central America right is right across here. So, first part is the Indian ocean and then is the Pacific ocean. And what we are going to do is take a vertical section all along the equator and see how temperature varies. And what you see here is the picture for April and this is the picture for October. Remember this is part of the Pacific here and this is the classic picture of the Pacific where the Pacific has a very very deep thermocline here and East Pacific it shows. In April we find that there is not too much East-West variation in the thermocline you know it is more or less flat, but you see that by October you see definitely that the slope of the thermocline is in opposite direction to that in the Pacific that it becomes deeper in the East. So, there is a lot of East-West variation in the equatorial Indian ocean which is of opposite sign to that in the Pacific that while the thermocline of the equatorial Pacific is shallow in the East and deep in the West that of the equatorial Indian ocean is shallow in the West and deep in the East also for almost the whole year we have seen that the East is warmer than the West equatorial Indian ocean. Now, the question is why is the thermocline deeper in the East? Again we had seen that in the Pacific also the answer lay in the nature of the winds it was the trade winds there. Now, here also we have the answer lies in the nature of the winds. Now, the equatorial Indian ocean experiences a somewhat different seasonal wind forcing and hence has a different response than the Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal. Since the Coriolis parameter vanishes at the equator East-West pressure gradients lead to zonal wind this is something we have to keep in the back of our mind that we are looking at the equator. So, it is like flow down a pipe the wind will go from high pressure to low pressure. Now, these are the wind stresses derived from encepre analysis and what you will see by enlarges that the winds are very very small and they are rather large south of 10 south and north of 10 north and they are somewhat large near the coast here in the equatorial region, but otherwise they tend to be very small. So, now what does the pressure gradient depend on? See pressure gradient will depend on the sea surface temperature gradient as well as the gradient in the atmospheric convection which is associated with metropospheric heating. So, if you have deep clouds over a place then because they have they are associated with heating at middle levels metropospheric heating the pressure they tend to decrease the surface pressure under that column of air. So, either because the sea surface temperature is high or and or because of metropospheric heating you get changes in surface pressure. Now, we have seen that the eastern equatorial Indian ocean is warmer than the western part and there is more convection over the eastern part than the western part. So, both these factors are acting to make the pressure over the east lower than the pressure over the west. So, the surface pressure is lower over the eastern part and that would mean that you have winds flowing winds which blow towards the east or westerly winds. So, winds over the equatorial Indian ocean particularly their zonal component are weak during the monsoon because during the monsoon most of the convection is actually over other latitudes. But relatively strong westerly winds appear in April may spring and then again in during the transition between the monsoon October November. See in these months what happens? So, this is the month of April and this is the month of October. Now, in these months if you look at this part of the basin then the east west SSD gradients are not that great in either of the months, but what is high is the east west gradient in convection atmospheric convection or in metropospheric heating. So, this will lead to actually strong winds which are eastward along the equator and they can attain speeds as much exceeding 1 meter per second and these are known as whirl key jets. So, now let us look at the zonal current. Now, we have gone to the ocean from the winds and the zonal current is in fact very high. This is April this is the mean current and this is April May when it is high and this is again October November when it is high and it is high over the central part of the basin. See this is 60 degrees east and this is 80 degrees east. So, this is very very high and in between it remains eastward or westerly, but the magnitude is not so high. These are known as whirl key jets after an oceanographer called Witki who discovered and described them in great detail. Now, this is in fact the annual component and the semiannual component which shows semiannual component is very large. So, it shows that twice a year you get very very large magnitudes of westerly of easterly flow I am sorry of westerly flow. Now, so what do these Witki jets do? Again the story is somewhat similar to the Pacific, but you have to replace west by east. In the Pacific remember the warm water near the surface of east specific gets transported by the trades towards the west. Now, here Witki jets transport warmer upper layer water towards the east which accumulates near the boundary causing the thermocline in the east to be deeper than in the west. Just like in the Pacific the thermocline is deeper in the west where the surface warm water is pushed by the winds towards the west specific. Here it is carried by these Witki jets to the east and so that makes the thermocline deeper. The thermocline slope becomes greater during spring and fall and the volume of warm water and the heat content of the Indian ocean is larger on the eastern side than the west. When the thermocline is shallow winds have to do lesser work to bring cooler water into the mixed layer than when it is deep. That is for the same wind strength a shallow thermocline can facilitate cooling of the mixed layer and SST whereas a deeper thermocline may not. Thus Witki jets dictate the shape of the thermocline in the equatorial Indian ocean. Climatologically since the eastern equatorial Indian ocean is warmer it supports a more convective atmosphere than in the west. Now this is the mean picture we have been talking about looking at mean monthly patterns but in some years this picture changes dramatically of you know most east being warmer than the west in terms of SST east having a deeper thermocline than the west and in the atmosphere above east having more convection in the west. This is the mean picture but this changes drastically. So how does it change we get negative SST anomalies over the eastern equatorial Indian ocean and positive SST anomalies over the western equatorial Indian ocean. So where it is warm it becomes colder eastern Indian ocean and the western equatorial Indian ocean becomes warmer and the anomalies can be so large that the gradient itself can change SST gradient can change sign. Now this is the case of 94 and we generally look at June to September because that is the summer monsoon period and that is what we are concerned with most. So this is the SST anomaly and this is the climatology I am sorry this is the SST climatology and this is the actual SST in 94 okay and what you see is climatology says that the east is warmer than the west but actually now in 94 west was warmer than the east and this of course is because you had huge negative SST anomalies here and positive SST anomalies here. So the gradient now has become towards the west as far as SST is concerned and now let us look at OLR what happens. Now convection is suppressed over EIO that is to say positive OLR anomalies and enhanced over WEIO. So now this is the west equatorial Indian ocean box and this is the east equatorial Indian ocean box. I will define the longitude and latitude later and what you see is this is the actual OLR. So instead of convection being by and large restricted to east and central part of this region it is now restricted to the western part. So the convection has also switched and of course you get very large positive OLR anomalies here showing that convection is suppressed over EIO and enhanced over WEIO. Now what does that mean we have we know that along the equator things just go along from high pressure to low pressure convection is suppressed here enhanced here and actually convection is occurring here and SST is also higher here which means pressure is lower here and you will get anomalies which are easter events. So you get easter events here and if the gradients are strong enough it is just not easterly anomalies but the winds themselves change direction and instead of flowing from west to east they start flowing from east to west. So this is the situation that occurs in some years. So this is opposite of what we have seen in the climatology or the main picture. Saji et al recognized anomalous conditions such as 94 and 97 which I will show you this is the case of 97 and here again you see cold anomaly over EIO, warm anomaly over WEIO, convection very much suppressed over EIO this is the OLR anomaly and enhanced over WEIO. So these are two major events 94 and 97 and Saji et al said that these are in fact manifestations of a mode of the tropical Indian Ocean which they called the Indian Ocean dipole mode. Why did they call it a dipole mode because typically we see that this mode is associated with anomalies of the opposite sign SST anomalies of the opposite sign in the east and west. So this looks like a dipole and in terms of OLR anomalies also it looks like a dipole. So these people Saji et al suggested the name Indian Ocean dipole for this mode Indian Ocean dipole mode and characterized by low SST of Sumatra and high SST in the western equatorial Indian Ocean accompanied by wind and rainfall anomalies. Now highlighting 97 98 event Webster et al also have suggested that anomalous conditions present during this period was due to an internal mode of the coupled system of the Indian Ocean coupled Indian Ocean atmosphere system mode of this is called the Indian Ocean mode. Now if we have to see if this is a major mode of climate of SST variability over the Indian Ocean how much of the variability is explained by this kind of a pattern or this kind of a mode. Now if we look at SST variability of the SST field over the Indian Ocean and analyze it then the dominant mode which explains 30 percent of the variance corresponds to SST anomalies of the same sign over the entire region. So you have pictures like this now this is 97 where almost the entire region is warm and this is 99 where almost the entire region is cold. So there is one mode in which the entire region is either warm or cold or the variation of SST is coherent across the region. So examples are in fact this mode is associated with ENSO and you see 87 was an El Nino year and this you see is a signal of La Nina. So during El Nino you get warm SST anomalies and during La Nina cold SST anomalies but uniformly so. So this mode of the entire basin becoming warmer or colder accounts for about 30 percent of the variance. Now IOD mode is the second most important mode of SST variability and accounts for 12 percent of the variance. So overall it does not account for much of the variance but the special feature of this mode is that it has very intense events which we call positive IOD events which have a huge impact on the climate of the region. Now Saji et al actually suggested an index for the IOD mode which is called the dipole mode index and this is defined as SST anomaly of the west equatorial Indian Ocean which I showed you minus SST anomaly of EEO. So normalized by the standard deviation where this is where we define WEIO 50 to 70 is 10 out to 10 naught and EEO is 90 to 110 is and 0 to 10 south. So this is EEO 90 to 110 is 0 to 10 south and these boxes were actually defined by Saji et al and these are the boxes that have been continued to be used for looking at equatorial Indian Ocean dynamics and particularly for Indian Ocean dipole mode. Now what are the phases? The phase of the Indian Ocean dipole mode in which the SST anomaly is negative and OLR anomaly positive over EEO like the 94 case and SST anomaly is positive and OLR anomaly negative over WEIO is called the positive phase of IOD and an event in which amplitudes of these anomalies are large such as in 94 is called a positive dipole event. And we have seen that here this is a case where you have very large anomalies and convection is enhanced over the west and suppressed over the east and you also have west is warm relative to the east positive SST anomaly over west negative over the east. This is the positive phase defined as the positive phase of IOD and if the amplitude of the anomalies is large we call it a positive IOD event. Now the reverse negative IOD also occurs when would that occur that would occur if the SST of the east is higher than average that is to say you have a positive SST anomaly on the east and negative on the west and enhanced convection on the east and suppressed convection on the west. So, this is the opposite sign of anomalies to the positive one. But remember that climatology or the mean state is such that convection is generally restricted to the eastern ocean. What negative IOD phase means is that is further enhanced in the east and decreased in the west. So, negative IOD is an intensification of the climatological or the normal state whereas positive IOD represents conditions nearly opposite to the normal. Instead of convecting on the east the atmosphere is convecting on the west instead of being warmer in the east the ocean is warmer in the west. So, this is a major change in the gradients east west gradients pretty much the way El Nino also occurs. So, this is why P IOD events are special negative IOD is just an intensification of climatology this is something to be born in mind. Therefore, major focus of attention has been on positive events and what you see here is plot of DMI which I defined the dipole mode index. When it is positive these are the events of 94 and 97 was a huge positive index. And then afterwards recently we have had 2006 as a positive index and earlier 61 was also a positive IOD event. So, there have been several P IOD events in a called history and the composite anomaly patterns of several of these events show you how they develop. So, this is actually the pattern for composite in a mature phase of the IOD and this is where SST is given in terms of shades here and the contours correspond to depth of the 20 degrees isotherm. So, the contours are all negative here which shows that the depth of the thermocline is decreasing markedly over the east and is increasing over the west and west is warmer than the east convection is suppressed over the east and is enhanced over the west. Now, next we look at there is one more feature to look at that associated with this is very, very strong easterly anomaly of the wind which goes from east to west which we have mentioned. So, now we will see how these things are consistent because strengthening of if we go back here the winds imply that all along here you have strengthening of winds which are parallel to the Sumatra coast remember this is the southern hemisphere. So, if you have winds like this that will lead to Ekman drift in this direction and therefore, away from the coast that means they will be upwelling in addition to that these winds that come from east to west will also lead to upwelling because they are going to move water away from the coast. So, both these factors are going to lead to upwelling and that means cooling of the sea cooling of the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and so they are consistent with the negative SST anomalies there. Now, I am going to talk about evolution of IOD also look at atmospheric component of IOD separately in the next lecture and then we will look at how the these modes or the coupled Indian Ocean dipole mode its atmospheric and oceanic components are they in any way linked to variability of the monsoon. Thank you.


This is JSA TV the newsroom for Tekken telecom professionals. I'm Dean Perine and welcome to JSA TV We are coming at you on location from ITW 2017 and I am here with mr. Vincent English Vincent is the CEO of Megaport Vincent welcome to JSA TV. Thanks Dean. Love you to be here outstanding. So how's the show going for you? Really busy. It's one of our biggest events on our calendar We get to meet a lot of people here a lot of our partners and our customers are here So it's it's a it's a perfect opportunity for us to sit down and collaborate and whatever else we need to get done Mainly business deals, but yeah business deals are good outstanding very good. So I'm Megaport lots of expansion going on there I know last year we we spoke and an expansion was kind of a theme and a year later You've made good on that theme. So why don't you tell our viewers a little bit about your expansion? Yeah, sure I mean 2016 was a very busy year for us and particularly the expansion of the network in the US. So we're over in 150 locations globally today 19 countries And it's really important for us to expand because at the end of the day fundamentally We're a network and so that network to give us that footprint and our software stacks. It's over that and so The network is really important in terms of global footprint. So both Europe and North America were expanded a lot over 2016 and and equally in terms of expansion We're actually increasing our ecosystem So our cloud service providers that we have on our footprint and our managed service providers and ISPs and other partners network partners are Equally expanding at the same time So it's actually taking two different tracks on our expansion and that's to create this The concept of a one-stop shop for our customers ultimately enterprises want to consume services And we make that very easy that journey for them and our service providers and our cloud service providers really want to get Access to enterprises. So we sit in that nice spot there where we're able to actually bring parties together so they can do business Outstanding so before we get to ahead of ourselves, why don't you tell our viewers a little bit about Megaport exactly what it is that you do? Yeah, so fundamentally we're a network and on top of that network what we've done is we built this really cool Product which is software-driven and which enables a feature set where you can actually pay for what you want When you want to use it connect to whoever you can on the network and consume it or have control over how you do that as opposed to a traditional network where you actually have to buy multiple parts of your network and Combine it together with multiple providers and we take that hard work away from Enterprises or customers who want to use that and make a very make that journey very easy for them So we we believe we've got a really cool product And we we really are trying to sell as much of it as we can today fantastic okay, so now I'm going back to the original question you kept talking about partnerships there and I understand that you've got a Number of partnerships that have happened really over the last year one being Oracle. Why don't you tell our viewers a little bit about that partnership? Yeah, sure recently we just announced a Global partnership with Oracle and we're one of the first providers to Connect both the bare metal and the Oracle public cloud and through their fast connect Which effectively is how they connect to their cloud and they When dealing with Oracle and how the partnership came together as we've got our 150 locations a geographic footprint our global footprint Which is ideally suited to Oracle in terms of them getting ahead and trying to expand that their cloud service product to the customers So there was and then for us it was really valuable for us to have Oracle come on to our ecosystem Or other other enterprises want to have a multi-cloud strategy or other just to connect to them And it's another way of connecting to another service provider So it was a win-win situation for both both parties and we're all really happy that we've eventually got that going. So it's Awesome, yeah, and then and another exciting news I mean not taken away from anything, but we just announced Ali Baba pretty yesterday morning So they've just come on to our network. So we're really excited dog. That's not even in my questions Fresh news. Yeah, no, I like it. You heard it here first folks very cool. So Keeping the same partnership theme elastic multi-cloud Ecosystem, what's that all about? Right? So, I mean, I guess the term elastic is is actually the ability to where you can actually consume in In a flexible manner, right? So it's not fixed and it's not It's just like it's not hard and set It's basically a consumer can use services whether they want to use it for one day two days a month to two months three months And they can also have it where they want to use it for a hundred meg 500 meg one gig two gig of capacity So the ability to scale is probably the equivalent of the term elastic in terms of how it works So the end Consumer can use their services in that flexible manner and effectively match that by paying for what they consume Very similar to how a cloud service provider would sell its cloud compute you pay for what you use We've made connectivity match that in the same manner. So we connect in the same way you would come to consume cloud Yeah, that's effectively what it is. That's very very cool So I assume then again, I'm not even this isn't a part of the question. So Is it an easier sell perhaps to be able to purchase like that and then a la carte kind of way? Yes, it ultimately it will be right because it is something a new a new thing, right? It's very different from the traditional way of these products coming together So we've spent a little we're spending a lot of time making sure awareness and education and stuff But as as time goes by that awareness grows rapidly as we've seen over the last 12 months And the adoption of that is is similar to the cloud adoption experience right and so and they both marry together in terms of how they work and Yeah, it's it's ultimately the enterprises will get that and they will find it's an easy way which our customers are doing now They're kind of you don't go back to the old way of doing it because right so much easier, right? Sure, so it's an adoption thing very cool. So let's talk about the future. Obviously the last 12 months have been Pretty big for you. Let's talk about the next 12 months Where can our viewers expect to see? Megaport 12 months from now. Yeah, look, we're really busy and again this conference again It's just one of those highlights for us where we get to kind of really take stock of what we want to do over the next 12 or 18 months and how we do it and double down on our efforts for one of the better word We're going to continue to expand our global footprint. So that 150 locations We're probably going to add another 60 80 locations before the end of this year. I thought that's wonderful Yeah, and we've got a lot of all of that already in the works so to speak. So yeah getting that done So that's that's really important for us. And like I said We just announced Oracle recently and then we'd Ali Baba this morning And we've got other Providers that we've got also a pipeline where we're working with to bring them on and again That's really important We're seen as kind of a way to get to market quickly because of our footprint because of the software and easy to consume So both of those tracks where you will see more expansion on over the next 12 months outstanding Vincent Thank you very much for being with us today. I appreciate it Yeah, it's great and listen Megaport comms where you see all the material and anybody wants to try out the portal It's Megaport.io and outstanding check it out. Yeah. Thank you very much. Enjoy. This is the last day I assume that you're getting on a plane later today. Yeah tomorrow heading back to Brisbane from here So a long trip home, but yeah, look forward to it safe travels to you Thanks as always for being with us. We appreciate it. Thanks very much, Dean You got it. You got it and thank you viewers for watching JSA TV. We will see you soon You


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Hello to everyone. I will be here shortly to check all configurations. Hello to everyone. Now you can also see me, at least on YouTube. Maybe you can give me a short feedback if you can see and hear me clearly. It's always good to know, but I think everything should work smoothly. Welcome to OrderFlow Trading with Robert Rosa today. Trading for a living. Hello Peter. All good. That's fine. Good morning. Yeah, well, it's a good afternoon in Germany. This is daylight saving time. Always big headache for everyone. Hello bookmap. Morning. So, about me. For the people who don't know me yet, I started trading at the age of 13. That was 1995, I believe. At the age of 17, I co-founded an investment firm with two partners in Frankfurt. They actually taught me the investment business, what are hedge funds, what is private equity, managed accounts, and of course how to trade. And at that time we were trading the S&P Future contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Still through the phone, the internet or online trading just begun. Then I sold my shares in that company in 2004 and I moved to China. I was 21 and I built up a second investment company in China with my Chinese partner together. And I had over 100 million US dollar under management. And one of my best trading days was during the subprime crisis 2008 where I made $800,000 in one day trading forex markets. And my company was quite successful. I had 30 people below me, traders, analysts, and a whole bunch of stuff, so to say. And well, we did private equity and of course we're trading our own money. And most of us trading the Hang Seng index, oil and gold futures at that time. Then if you're very successful in China, there's always some of our problem. Look at Jack Ma and other successful people. Then I was detained in May 2011 for, so to say, outsmarting the Chinese finance system. And I spent the next seven years and seven months in a Chinese prison in Dongguan. I was released in December 2018. And of course, what should you do? I started trading again. And I also wrote a book about my life. It became a bestselling book in Germany. Unfortunately, it's only in German available for the moment. It's called Dragon Years or Drachen Yar in German. And well, then I started a trading community. I found a book map after I got released out of prison. It was a very good thing because it actually teaches us the way how to trade, how to see the liquidity in the market. And that is for me personally, the most important factor in trading. You can find more information about me on RobertRosa.com. There is a German and an English speaking community. You can join for free and ask anything that you like. Also here on Linktree, on YouTube, RobertRosa, on Twitter, you can also find me. And most importantly, the general disclosure. All book map limited materials, information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk disclosure, trading futures, equities and digital currencies involve substantial risk of loss and it's not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. I always mention it again. You trade and you are responsible for your own results. If you start to copy other people or to blame other people for your own failure, you are simply not right on the right place. And then also for book map, book map is starting a new competition. The CryptoMarch Madness Competition. I think it's a great way to experience more about crypto trading. And if you look at Bitcoin and you can also do that and the liquidity levels, you will see very good results or opportunities. Let's put it this way. Well, there is this website. You can register here on competition book map and you must be an Academy member. I will also add the links here on YouTube. The first link, register here. You can win nice prizes. You have one here global plus subscription and 500 USDT. And well, try it. You have nothing to lose. You can only learn and win. And then you also must be a member of the Academy as we have here book map Academy. I can only give you the advice. Join the Academy and well, you learn so many valuable knowledge about trading, which you can basically not find anywhere else online. Or you have to pay a fortune for this and well, you get it more or less for free from some of the best traders that I know and not good YouTube or Instagram influencers. So then let's have a look at the markets. Let's close all of this today. What was important today? If we look at the news, we see we had the jobless claims below forecasts. If you have any questions, feel free to ask them in the chat. And also if you are here, put a like on YouTube. It's always good. There are jobless claims below forecasts. If you look here, my favorite website in the calendar. Gross raise actually 3.4%, previous 4.9%. So yeah, but I'm not the person who is trading actually or interpreting these news to tell you if this is good or bad. Honestly, I don't care a lot. I'm not this macro economy guy. I'm a trader. I simply want to know that there are news at this time. Then we can also look at the market, how the market reacts. And this is the important part for me. Now let's have a jump into the ES. What did the ES S&P Future do at 1.30 Central European time? I always like this picture you see. We come here and all the liquidity is pulled out of the market. And then we had a short reaction from 5306 to 5311. Actually not a big reaction. There's no surprise. Nothing on the trader side which would indicate any big change. Markets will open shortly in 20 minutes. Now let's make an analysis. For me important, anyone who's following me on certain steps, I have my file, my sheet here. And I always want to know what is the initial balance. The initial balance is simply the high and low of the first 30 minutes of the trading day. And then I take the difference, the delta. And I can see if we have a low delta, let's say like 11 or 6 or 8 points. Then most likely the market will have a breakout later on that day. It's a very good indication for my trading strategy. If I should be a trend following trader and jump on the trend, buy the pullbacks or if I believe the market will go sideways, that I will sell the highs and buy the lows. Actually then I'm trying to be a range trader. And also very important, this is the settlement price. Settlement price, you can see very important figure for the market where the market will go close or simply turn around out of nowhere. Let's have a wider view on the market. I like to use trading view. It's a simple tool for me. I can see everything very quickly. And to understand, I always draw in certain ranges. The screen zones are my support and resistance zones. And we can see this breakout went exactly into this zone. And then it stopped with the resistance zone and the market went back to the Vweb. I'm actually a Vweb trader. I like the Session Vweb starting for the regular trading. Of course, that's important for me. Or the Encard Vweb, a very nice tool. Now let's have a look at the 15 minutes chart. Hello, Alexander. Hello and good morning. Good afternoon. Is my stream on Discord still running? Yeah, it should run. Sometimes it just stops there, but it's fine. So let's get an overview. What are our support and resistance zones? To explain, open, simply the opening price. Also always a good support and resistance zone. SP is settlement price. And now let's check the settlement price from last day. We can find this on the CME website. The market is a mini and let me wait a second. It's starting to rain. I must close the window. Big rain is starting here on the island and with the wind then it's getting quite wet in my office. So now let's get back to the settlement price. Jewel contract 5308.25. Close this. Good knows.  Close the window. Enter the settlement price 5308. Settlement price today is 28. Actually, it's not the settlement price of the 28th of March. It's the one from 27th. But I simply label it for today's and I know I entered it today and I will have it. So now we can see if we look at this, the settlement price on the chart a couple of times in the pre-session trading here. If you simply trade this as a support and resistance zone, in the pre-session you can actually make money. And also if you look at the settlement price of the 22nd or 21st of March then you also see simply we have this range here. Market comes close to the settlement price, touches the settlement price. Actually, it is important, easy number to pay attention to. Of course, if you're a big player, why is this important? Settlement price, if you're hedge fund, if you're pension fund and you're actually not the day trader, what you trade or hold your positions over longer time periods then the settlement price is a price where you calculate your profit, your loss and also your future contracts margin. If you have any questions, like I said, feel free. Let me check you on Discord. Some more people coming. Resistant zone still, the 5312. And then we have a very nice zone to trade. This is actually the virgin point of control from this zone. I put a volume profile in it and then I have the point of control, the price level where the most volume was traded. And this is basically a nice resistance which we can use to trade pullbacks. The Viva from yesterday I will take out. So I have to fix also this. And now we can see during the pre-session we have this range. I like to analyze the market in these two ways, the price structure range and after the range the market will break out. Where the market will go we never know. We only know that the market will go somewhere. And then I also want to know where is the most traded volume in this range. So I will simply put a volume profile. Then I can see that we have point of control at 530450. So we can assume that this is the average price from the big buyers, from the smart money. And now they want to push the market in one direction, either upward or downward, which I don't know. I simply know if the market moves up, will make a breakout. I want to see that the market comes back to the VPOG for example. And then I will assume that they continue buying. Because if you are a huge buyer you cannot cover all your position size in this short range you need definitely a higher volume. So we bear that in mind. We will basically open with no gap at all. And then we have the range, the trading range in play. We have this large buying tail, which we had yesterday. Shortly before closing the market went up like 20-30 points. I don't know if you saw this, but it was crazy. Just running through all sorts of resistances. And just someone really had to buy, had to enter the market. But what is rising very quickly can also fall very quickly. So we can assume if we break below this zone here, the open price from the 22nd maybe we can have a quick sale off to 5282 again. Let's see if we get somehow any surprises here. Any new liquidity. Still the 5295, 96, 95. Oh yeah, this zone, the initial balance high. We have the settlement price opening. This basically, this liquidity zone is around the settlement price from the 25th or actually 24th of March. So it's an interesting move if the market will absorb this liquidity. Then I expect that the market can also make a pullback. These are the trading niche that I like to use. Because I assume or I know if the market goes to the settlement price that there will be any reaction. The algos will start buying or selling. And then we will have this pullback. And this is basically in the S right now, 12 ticks. And this is something I like to trade. Trade for a living, thanks for the settlement price. Yeah, trading for a living, you really must pay attention to this. And also the settlement prices from the last weeks. I simply keep them in my chart because also settlement price from two weeks or two months ago still has validity. Still valuable, yeah? You will see the market simply makes a reaction at that time. The probability is very high. So this now we can confirm very nicely with bookmap settlement price around 95293.25. So you have the liquidity zone here. Sometimes we don't really know if the market really touches the settlement price or if the market turns couple ticks before or jumps below this settlement price. But with the liquidity in view, we can actually place an order exactly at the 94.5. And then I simply would wait for an execution. On the other side, what you can see here is the pink lines. These is the VWAP with the standard deviations. And basically in the ES you can trade, if you like it, the standard deviations quite easily. Actually, this is my basic trading or scalping strategy during the regular trading hours because the VWAP is a very important tool for algorithmic trading. And any time the market comes to a standard deviation, buying power or selling power will come into the market. We can see the market touches standard deviation when back to VWAP, then to the plus one standard deviation, this is minus one, this is plus one, and maintenance retracement, pullback back to the VWAP, and then again to the standard deviation, standard deviation, standard deviation. And it's simply just running from that line to that line. The question is why is the market doing this? Simply because of algorithmic trading. And that is the small niche that I developed for myself in day trading future markets. I can do this in the ES. Also oil is a very nice market to trade with the Encard VWAP. Can have a quick look to this. I like to spot high and low prices in the oil, for example here. I would simply add an Encard VWAP. Let's do that. And then we can see that the market is actually trailing along this VWAP. You can trade this very aggressively. You have a low. What I want to see is that the market is making sort of a black zone here, a vacuum. Then I would see we have the up move. The market makes a retouch to the VWAP and then we continue trailing along. This is a very aggressive entrance. But if you wait for these sort of situations that we have a bigger empty space and the prices moving away from the VWAP, then I will simply look for entrance points at the VWAP. And we can see market goes back to the VWAP. Then the algos are starting buying and the market is continuing moving up. Then these trades you can really nicely trade. And for me really I have also in CL, I'm using simply a take profit from around 15 to 20 ticks. This is working quite well. And then I'm out of the market. I'm not letting the positions run the whole day. That is according to my experience. You can make bigger profits, yes, but for my trade frequency and for my risk to reward ratio, I'm happy to get two and a half times of what I am risking out of the trade. So I simply start to play around with the Anchor VWAP tool. You can also find the tier settings, configure add ons, VWAP. And you can add all the lines that you want. You can delete them. Now this is the white one. I can change the color. So now with a different color. I can change the time. I can change the name. I can add bands. First and second standard deviation. Or I can also use custom bands. Then I simply close. Now I have this anchored VWAP with its standard deviations. So let's go back to the ES. Still the market is ranging between these two bands. Like magic sometimes. But sometimes computer or algos are very predictable. That is a nice niche for trading. Let me check if there are any questions. Just feel free to ask the data. You read Hermann Hesse, one of my favorite books. Which standard deviation do you use for the ES? Basically the first and second standard deviation. This is the basic configuration. VWAP simply. Plus one, plus two. The multiplier I think is one. Sometimes it depends on if you really have a volatile market in the ES. You can use also 1.5 and you have three. My VWAP actually has no configurations. You simply have a starting point. And then this benchmark will start to develop. This VWAP now actually is starting at the beginning of my recording session. It was this morning around 9 a.m. Or 2, I think it's 2 a.m. New York time. And now we can see this one is developing through the day. Now and then at opening I will add a new VWAP for the session. And this is the most important VWAP for me actually. We can see this in three minutes. I will add this one. Then we can see how the market is moving around the VWAPs. And also how the liquidity is coming to the VWAP level. Look here. We have the VWAP at this point. And now liquidity is coming to this level. So it's a confirmation for me. Now they are pulling it again. But you will see that somehow liquidity always comes up where we have this deviation lines. Please everyone like this YouTube channel. Only 50 likes but you already have 55 viewers and more. So please hit the like button. You're welcome Zidada. I'm Martin. I'm only trading ES or other products as well. I'm trading also other products. ES is basically my main market. But I'm also trading oil at the moment. Natural gas. Oil. I have CL. Gold. And Bitcoin. We can see here now Bitcoin running smoothly up to the 72K. It always depends on the environment. Sometimes I trade other markets more like now. Sometimes I only trade CL sometimes only ES. At the moment it's ES. Sometimes I trade stocks or I trade options on the spy. Always depends on the market surrounding the market environment and where I feel comfortable with. Where I can see the best risk to reward ratio for my strategy. And that's currently in the ES trading these standard deviations from the VWAP. But you can also trade it nicely in CL. CoinMess had announced today regarding options, explorations. BDC could be volatile. Yeah, definitely. Yeah, I heard about that. Now we can see BDC we have actually not known. There's no liquidity on the downside. I think we will hit the 72 or 75K during the next days. Now we can also see very nice picture. You absorb the liquidity. You have a little run over it. But then you can actually trade pullbacks very nicely in Bitcoin. So now let's have a look at the market. The market has just opened. Let's get back to the one minute chart here. You can see actually draw the opening price. Opening 28. Okay. So this we have the settlement price. For me, basically, I'm carefully trading during the first couple of minutes. I want to see how the market is reacting today. Sometimes you have days where you have really inaccurate trading on the VWAP lines. Sometimes it's a little bit more choppy. And this is for me to determine during the first minutes of the day. Then I also add here the bank card VWAP on the starting point. Also band multipliers. Very simple. Sewers open, high, low, close, divide by four. So when it's developing here, I will add new VWAP settings. Configure add-ons. VWAP create new line for 30 to change the date here to 28. Now we have the VWAP starting from the official trading session. We will choose this one drawing a VWAP here. Now it's done. So now let's see what sort of initial balance we will get today. This is, like I said, the high and low of the first 30 minutes of the day. They are important for me to get an idea of the market. For example, during this week, the last couple of days, we always had a very narrow initial balance from around 6 to 11 points only. And then we saw it's basically at the end of the trading day always a huge breakout, either on the upside or downside. Also here we can see how the market is actually reacting on these standard deviation lines. It's like ping-pong game. Ping-pong, ping-pong, ping-pong, ping-pong. I mean, this is not tradable yet. This is only one point here. Very difficult. I want to see that the bands have, like, 2.5 to 3 points away from each other. For this we have to wait a little bit. Now entering the VVIP again. Hello, demo trader. Nice to see you. Difficult trading conditions currently with the short holiday week. Also last trading day of the month and quarter. Yes, Martin, definitely you have to keep that in mind. Also tomorrow is Good Friday in the United States. Markets are closed. And also in Europe we have on Monday holiday. There is Eastern Monday, we call it like this. And it's also holiday season right now. Everyone is travelling around. I'm living on an island and I can tell you the island is getting full right now. All the tourists are coming and celebrating. And so no one is trading. Also not in the banks in Europe. Mostly is closed or they're simply on vacation. So then best thing is simply not to trade. Enjoy the holidays with your family and friends. And get back next week with clear mind, full of energy and a good risk to reward ratio. Now we can also see that we have again the market hit the session VVIP. Then the pullback came to the first standard deviation. So but this is only one point. This is too narrow for me to trade. I want to see that it, let's say widen a little bit. Because if I only can expect 4 ticks and I have a stop loss of 4 ticks and I have a risk to reward ratio from 1 to 1. That is of course possible to trade. But you need a very high win rate and that's complicated sometimes. With my configuration of 5 and 12 I can be very confident to make 2, 3, 4 trades a day. And with a winning rate of 50% I can actually be profitable. And that's the most important thing. And like you said this week was hard to trade. Yeah and very slow, very, yeah I put it this way. Annoying. But as a trader you have to learn how to, how to recognize these trading sessions and then you have to decide for yourself what risk you should take. Or probably even do not take any risk and stay away. So now we are hitting the second. And you can see also liquidity is coming again at the area of the second standard deviation. 04.75. This is no coincidence. Also here the 5308 again more liquidity at the standard deviation. So this is the range currently. Also we can say we only have a range right now. The high at 5.3.10. And the low at 5.3.05. Five points that is very, very low. Now you can see again market exactly hit the standard deviation, yeah. In combination with liquidity what we can see these are very good trading signals. Unfortunately the range, the profit expectation is way too low. It looks like a quiet beginning again. For me personally I like the view of the regular trading hours. I don't like to see the extended trading hours because one of the best trading strategies that I know and very efficient one is simply the gap close trade. I mean this gap is now too small, too narrow. But if you have a gap wait just place your order on the gap close and leave the computer and simply wait. And again market hit exactly the standard deviation. Okay now we are getting a little bit action into the market. But again where did the market hit? Second standard deviation. Quick sweep, exactly Martin. Some trader just pressed by market, yeah. It becomes interesting when the standard deviations are starting to widen each other. This one goes up, this one goes down. Then we know we are probably going to have a breakout. And then we are moving on a trend. Like that's not enough yet. If they really spike these standard deviations then we know we get liquidity and volatility into the market. But still it's not somehow lasting. The market is playing around the opening price. Okay now we get some direction. We have the gap close. We will also take the initial balance already a little bit up here. And you will see during the trading days initial balance high or low are very important support and resistance zones. Nice gap close trade, yeah. Still not even 12 ticks. Which AV web indicator are you using in trading? I can't find one that looks like yours. Basically it's the standard one. If you go here I think. It's not somewhere here. It's okay, it's German language now but it's called here N-Cut V-Web. Volume 2 is N-Cut V-Web. You just click on these stars and you have it in your favorites. And I simply click on it. I point on one, for example, it's that we can take this low here. And then you can go right click on settings. And then you can actually change. Do you want to have the bands or not? For me for the session V-Web I am using the bands. For the N-Cut V-Web which I place at high and lows I simply use the standard. I have simply use no standard deviations, source, high, low, close divided by 3. I have them in red color. And now I have this V-Web here. So now we're getting some buying pressure, interesting. And keep in mind at 5.3.15 we have this huge volume point of control from this rotation.  We can also see the liquidity here at 5.3.15. That is a good point to actually at least a target. 5.3.15 I think the market will take the liquidity but also very strong resistance. You're welcome Greg. And now again we can see the market reacted perfectly on the standard deviations. The market simply stop here. Algos are coming and pushing the market upwards. And I believe we will see the volume point of control. For the new guests we have a very huge... I took out this sort of rotation. This area here. And I entered a fixed range volume profile. And we have the point of control at <IP_ADDRESS>. I simply extended this line. And I go back to the one minute chart. I have this line. And now I look at book map and I have the liquidity here. So I know this level has a huge impact. Most likely this could be the retest for the highs. The market will have a sell-off if we reach this VPOC. OMRAM definitely. OMRAM TARRE Kansas be used to trade forex. Definitely I'm trading euro US dollar with this a lot. 6e the future contract. Use this. Try to experiment with it. Different markets have different behaviors. And then find this forex market which is suitable for the VWAP. I can tell you euro US dollar is quite well for this. But I would not trade... For me when I trade forex I'm basically using a 15 minute or 30 minute chart to make my decisions. I wouldn't trade this two on a one minute chart. I wouldn't do that because of the slippage. Bit and ask spread. So now we are hitting here this liquidity zone. Interesting what's going to happen here at this point of control. OMRAM how can I get the same template you are using? Which one do you mean? The left one here on book map? Or on trading view? Or through which software do you trade forex markets? Meta trader. Red folder and using 10 minutes for which market? Well now exactly what is going to happen. We touched the point of control like two ticks before. And now we have this sell off. We didn't hit it exactly yet. Maybe with the second move we will try to fetch the liquidity. But these are the moves that I try to trade, which I expect. And now again we still even have one tick here at the first standard deviation. We get to pull back again. This was a very strong signal. Volume point of control, liquidity. And we know there is people still want to sell at this point. Or expand their short position or whatever they entered there. Normally we could expect a correction back to the session Vweb. Okay for US dollar, yeah. But this doesn't impact the index futures. I think this won't have any effect here. So again, ranging between these two standard deviations. Let me see the news. Okay, if I look at trading economics, two stars. We have Michigan consumer, sentiment, final, pending, home, sales. Basically everything which is not three stars I ignore in trading. Index futures. See if we change the category in interest rate. Basically here all events. I don't, from my experience I don't pay too much attention to that. What we will see. Of course there are some huge new surprises that might cause a reaction. But I doubt it. But of course you never know. Now we can also initial balance is 14, 15, 10 points. Nine points is still low at the moment. Last year at this time we had sometimes an initial balance of 40 to 50 points. That was huge volatility. Okay, but what we can see now some liquidity is pulling out of the market. The book is getting a little bit thinner here. If it's going to have a huge impact in around seven minutes then we should see that the other book will become very thin and liquidity will disappear. Well, let's see what's going to happen. Now we can see that we have a little wall here at 12.50. Market will not go above it. No one wants to get above 12.5. But again it's so quiet in the market. Typical for this week and then like 10 minutes or 20 minutes before closing the market will run like crazy into one direction. The NQ is pumping. Let's have a look at the NQ. Okay, yeah, definitely the NQ is pumping. The ES is not going along with it. Andi Borchi, Moin bist du häufig live in German? Yes, Andi, I am live every Wednesday at 7 p.m. Central European time on the bookmap channel and every Thursday are basically at 3 p.m. Central European time. But today was at 2 p.m. because of the daylight saving time. But basically twice a week, yeah. If anyone wants to actually know all the dates I have a free community and I post every time here when I will go live and then you're always up to date. Nice to see how the NQ runs to the liquidity zones and then they sell off. You know, if the NQ is pumping but the ES is not going along with it then it's not lasting. Yeah, this is very... We are only moving like 4 ticks, 5 ticks at the moment. It's very, very slow. Now we're hitting the Encard V-Web from the low. We can add this one here. Low price is here. Great Encard V-Web. Exactly at the V-Web from the low. Let's see what the initial balance is doing. We have the high at 14.5 and the low at 5.305. So we have an initial balance of 9.5 compared to the days before. It's the same range. So basically we can expect to have a breakout the second half of the day. Yeah, give this a go. So as I said, mid-force is always German. Sorry, I'm speaking German for a second. Mid-force is always German or my community is also German. Just go to robertroter.com. So now, exactly hitting the V-Web again. Pullback time. But the news are coming okay and we can see the liquidity is pulling out of the market. So the people are still somehow scared. Now we see this is always very nice to see. No liquidity. Empty is the book. So well, until now, not much is happening. Welcome, Andy. Now let's test the volume point of control again from the big range, V-Pok. And please hit the like button on YouTube again. Already 67 people are watching. It's very nice. And now again we are hitting the... not exactly yet. We are testing the volume point of control here. From that range, again for the... important resistance here from that zone, from that area. And now we can see we are struggling at that zone and we have the liquidity here. Each time the market simply jumps there, we get the pullback. These are very nice trading opportunities for me. And this in combination with the... second standard deviation is always nice to trade. I believe if we break this zone, this resistance zone, then we are very close to probably make all-time highs today. We are getting liquidity at 5.304. And well, there's no surprise. It's exactly at the second standard deviation. Spoofing at 5.312, 5.75. We cannot maybe have to change the view. See, it's not easy for the market to simply go through that range. So probably the next attempt at 14.59 spoofing. You mean spoofing, they placed fake orders here. Yeah, if this is here and here, I think you mean this zone here. Yeah, it's difficult to say. It's very difficult to prove the fake orders. Very difficult for the market to go through this resistance. Correct, Alois Santa. And the link you can find on the Bookmap German, Bookmap Deutsch channel. Or I posted on Telegram or in my communities. You can see the live stream from yesterday also on the Bookmap German channel. Now definitely we couldn't get above the 5.350 above this point of control. Now what I would do is I would believe this is an important high and I would simply add an anchored VWAP and use this as my reference point. And we see new liquidity is coming here at this level. If we are not going above this white anchored VWAP from the high, maybe we can see a sell-off with lower prices. Now if you have any questions, you can ask them now. Otherwise I would say I would wish you happy Easter. Enjoy the holidays. Same for me. Also would enter the holiday vacation state and my family is coming to visit me, my sister and their kids. It's a lot to do this weekend. And if we don't go above this level, 5.350, keep in mind that we probably see lower prices and we have a low initial balance. Probably 10 minutes or 20 minutes before closing time the market will pop out into one direction. So then I wish you all happy Easter and see you next week. Bye.