What's up? It's me. It's me. It's your old mate Jacob. We're in a little bit of a different Well a different setting here, I guess. I'm sitting at my computer desk And I'd love nothing more than to once and for all open up well and truly About the amount of money that YouTube pays me All that YouTube did pay me through the year of 2020. It's an interesting topic It's a topic that gets a lot of attention You know for obvious reasons. There's not many YouTubers out there that are comfortable or fully cut They might say they are but they're not fully comfortable about talking about How much money they earn from YouTube now whether that's a tax evasion. I'm not gonna lie Or whether it's just you know values morals Whatever they're comfortable with I don't know And I'm you know thinking about I'm not really sure why I haven't made these videos, but but this particular one has been brought on It's been inspired by a guy called Matt does fitness and Matt does fitness is a fitness YouTuber as you could probably tell he's one of my favorite fitness youtubers And he's been the only one of the only ones that I really firmly believe has stayed true to himself this whole entire time So his channel has gone from You know a few Thousand subscribers to a hundred thousand to a million and honestly I think he's over two million subscribers now But the only reason why is because of his work ethic. He has a similar work ethic to his YouTube channel as I do It's just that his audience is a lot bigger.  He showed to his YouTube channel. I respected that. I enjoyed the video I'm here to do the exact same thing and that is what we will do So what I'm gonna tell you right now is That YouTube was my full-time income for the very first time Throughout the whole of 2020 so I decided to go all in All in on YouTube for the 12 months, which is you know, I pretty much gone all in for the last three years before that but Officially, I did not have that full-time income to fall back on You know what I mean? So YouTube wasn't anymore just a side gig I Had no choice but to back myself but to say right well if I wake up and I don't have to go to a normal job What else am I gonna do?  I've experienced it. We've all experienced it whether we've got a YouTube channel or not There are so many more factors with YouTube coming in at you You know what I mean? You've got you've got the analytics, but you've got the criticism you've got the The You've got both the criticism and the congratulations. You've got yeah bad and good comments. You've got a Lot of work a lot of back-end like data entry type of work, but that's the work that I enjoy It's the hustle. It's the grind. It's it's it's putting in putting in the hours Which I don't I don't actually have the ability to do anymore One thing I will say guys before I get into this money this money situation for 2020 and the last thing I will say is that When I've sat down for editing sessions recently in recent months to get these top 100 videos out My staying power is not what it used to be. I don't know where or why that is where that's come from or why that is but I Just can't do it. I can sit down for three hours I might even be able to sit down for four hours and do editing But I certainly cannot sit there for 10 or 12 hours straight like I used to a short two years ago. I Mean could I yes, but When you're editing yourself, okay, you're looking at yourself.  It's a bit. It's a bit ugly I'm gonna come Over this way and keep talking so my friends. This is it If you'd ever wondered what a YouTube studio Dashboard looks like Specifically the channel and analytics page. This is it. This was my channel in 2020 Am I gonna show you 2019? No, am I gonna show you 2018? No But what I am gonna show you from 2018 in the next video is my most successful day on YouTube ever Okay, my most successful day on YouTube ever now to put that into perspective that is around the time that it exploded I'll show you exactly what happened, but to put it into perspective. I probably averaged You know, I'm gonna say I averaged maybe 25 25,000 views per day throughout the year of 2020 25,000 views per day a total of 6.3 million You know, there's a there's an outlier here of There's an outlier of 80,000 views on Saturday, January the 18th of 2020. I'm not exactly sure what that was from most likely a DK Metcar for Patrick Mahomes video but apart from that, you know, I was averaging Around about 20 to 25,000 views per day now to put that into perspective on a single day back in June of 2018 I received over five hundred Thousand views in a single 24-hour period now what that did was explode my channel that day That Marshawn Lynch video combined with all the other videos that I'd made previous which I will talk about Because I kind of set myself up for that. I'd kind of I Did set myself up for that day and and for someone to find that video and For me not to have any other reaction videos on the channel It would have been a completely lost opportunity But I knew that one of those videos was gonna go well eventually just one. That's all we need and it did and At that time I probably had about 20 other reaction videos in the library So they found that one they went to the next one they went to the next one and so within that month of 20 2018 I think I honestly got maybe six million views I really do think that in that month I equalled the amount of views that I got throughout the whole of 2020 So YouTube's like that man. YouTube's like that. It's it's it's not predictable but you can put yourself in positions to make the most of An influx of viewers and subscribers if that does happen to happen to you and your channel And that's what happened to me, but we're talking about 2020. So guys you can see it on the screen There it is in all its glory. I made in my first ever year of going full-time on YouTube 15,000 $180 and 10 cents from 6.3 million views now if we do click on On the money tab we can see that on average I'm gonna say look, there's this look this is times I put out of I put out at least one If not two videos every single day throughout 2020 yet You know at times I was making I'd be lucky to make $20 a day Throughout April I'd be lucky to make $30 a day throughout May I'd be lucky to make $40 a day and throughout July You know $50 a day and throughout September $80 a day and you know it goes up and down goes up and down depends on what type of content you're gonna post But throughout that middle period of the year right where I was locked down here in here in Christchurch And I've just realized something I don't actually need these headphones Not at all Jesus that's much better. So throughout throughout the year of 2020 I Was locked down in Christchurch the whole world was locked down I wasn't locked down, but I was in Christchurch, right?  I wasn't listening to YouTube I wasn't listening to my YouTube audience when I probably should have but I did stick to myself I stuck true to myself and at the end of the day having Not sold out completely and just gone straight for the best players straight for the biggest players straight for the Biggest hits, you know what I mean just to get the views in Because at the end of the day with me and my reaction videos if I'm not feeling that video if I'm if I'm not doing it for the right reasons On that particular day, it's not gonna happen. So I'm so glad to say that yes We only made 50 we only made 15 and a half fifteen thousand one hundred and eighty dollars but the content that I produced to The content there that I created to produce that income was my content. It was true to myself and so I I really feel like 2021 I'm in a position to Continue to create the content that means the most to me But also also really start to look at the algorithm really start to look at my channel Look at the videos that are the most successful. Look at the ones that do pay the most and This time next year when I do show you how much YouTube just how much YouTube paid me throughout the year of 2021 I Want it to be I'm gonna I'm gonna make this You know, I'm gonna make this a goal I've got a subscriber goal. I won't say that But I do have a money goal and this is a money goal to Fund me in my life and and and the things that I do want to achieve throughout the year of 2021 And that would be 50,000 that would be $50,000 Which it actually put me above the tax-free threshold so I'd actually have to pay tax on that This 15,000 effectively I don't but can you imagine The youtubers such as Matt does fitness. I mean Matt does fitness put this number out there He showed absolutely every single person on his YouTube channel that he made 400,000 US dollars last year 400,000 now the first thing I think honestly the first thing I think is Matt. I Hope you paid your taxes.  Can you imagine if that number was no not a five figure number Not a six figure number, but a seven figure income number now This is income from from Google YouTube's owned by Google. I get paid by Google officially so effectively this video could probably be called How much did Google pay me throughout 2020 but we're gonna call it how much did YouTube pay me throughout 2020 my largest day of income Which is a complete outlier was 346 dollars now. That is from a live stream My second largest outlier which was in late December was 149 dollars Once again a live stream and my third largest outlier which was again in in December of 2020 Was videos that I'm publishing the top 100 series at least the ones that are monetized But also yet again another live stream. So moving into the future or moving into January. What did I do? I? Saw that trend. I saw that we were making more money in the month of December than I ever had before that year and The reason was is because I put myself in an environment where I could make a shitload of content I could get on live streams for hours on end. I could really interact with you guys. I could edit in A good mood, you know what I mean in a nice environment, which meant that I spent a little bit more time on my editing You know, I'm putting transitions in Things like that. I'm doing little zoom in parts. You know what I mean a bit of meme editing I'm not the best at it, but I'm trying So all I can hope is that you guys continue to enjoy my content. I hope you enjoyed this video We made fifteen thousand one hundred and eighty dollars on YouTube in 2020 and in 2021. I want to make 50k So thank you for being here and I'll see you in the next one Peace out guys


In this research, we study how cognitive misperceptions about future economic developments can affect stability in financial markets. Also, what we do is to investigate the implications of those misperceptions for the appropriate conduct of macro-provincial regulation. To address these considerations, essentially we need a proper definition of cognitive misperceptions, and to add that definition, we look at existing literature. In particular, we use the concept of diagnostic expectations. These are deviations from rational expectations. These deviations tend to overreact to recent information relative to a rational benchmark, in the sense that they assign very high probability mass to events in the future that are reminiscent of events that happened in the recent past. These expectations are very attractive from a scientific point of view, because the forecast errors on asset returns associated with expectations are very consistent with those documents empirically. So what we do in this research is to embed these diagnostic expectations into another standard macro-economic model with a banking sector, and now with this model in hand, we conduct a positive analysis to address the first consideration, and then we conduct a normative analysis to address the second consideration. Out of these analyses, we obtain the following results. The key takeaway from the positive investigation is that diagnostic expectations increase instability in financial markets relative to a rational benchmark. Essentially, this happens because those expectations strengthen some positive interactions between bank net worth and asset prices that arise because banks are financially constrained and hence need some equity to finance their asset positions. So now we look at normative results. And here we obtain that as a consequence of the higher instability in financial markets because of the diagnostic expectations, now there is more need for macro-provincial interventions, put differently for capital requirements on banks that are based on policy. What we obtain is that this macro-provincial intervention is tighter even if the regulator is subject to the same misperceptions as the private agents. Then we look at these differences in misperceptions among potential different regulators, and we find that regulators with different beliefs or with different expectations have different preferences concerning the optimal regulation. But more importantly, we find that this agreement is higher during financial booms when essentially risk-taking in financial markets is more aggressive and consequently these positive interactions between bank net worth and asset prices are stronger. So overall, what we do here is to study implications of cognitive misperceptions on the stability of financial markets. We find that those misperceptions increase the instability in those markets. Then we look at implications for macro-provincial regulation and essentially obtain that because of the higher instability, there is a higher need for tightening the behavior of banks for instance by putting tighter capital requirements on those agents. So that's the takeaway from our paper and thank you very much.


Hi in this video, I'm gonna be talking about Bollinger bands and how traders trade the Bollinger band or one of the popular ways That traders trade the Bollinger band indicator now the Bollinger band indicator was created by John Bollinger and is used to measure market volatility was used to measure market volatility So market volatility refers to the amount of activity within the market So a low volatility market will refer to Basically low activity and a high volatility market will refer to a lot of activity So a high an example of a high volatility market is during some sort of news or economic Event so where traders are getting into the market and you know There's a lot of activity going on buying and selling based on the news So the Bollinger band is really centered With the indicator is centered around the moving average 20 period moving average which is the red or burgundy line that you can see and It has two bands an upper band and a lower band and the idea behind it is that price volatility won't really will say won't really but it won't stay outside of the Bands for too long before reverting back to the moving average So you can see here that prices Don't really stay outside of the bands for too long. So they will kind of hug the band They will hug the band, but they won't You know really deviate too far away from the actual Band as you can see prices stay when they do come outside They can the wick comes back in outside comes back in outside comes back in so You will have periods where Prices may come out, but They won't stay out for too long. Now traders will trade the Bollinger band in The main way that traders will trade the Bollinger band is via the Bollinger band bounce. So traders would attempt to Capitalize and buy when prices come into the lower band and sell as Prices come into the upper band now Like all indicators It depends on the market state. So there are some indicators that are Really good for trending markets and there are some indicators that are Used and really well for ranging markets. So the Bollinger band indicator is mainly used for Ranging markets There is a there is a trending market strategy For Bollinger bands, but the main way that traders will use this is just to trade the upper and the lower side Bounces so let's say for example, we have an upper bounce here, right now This level may be used as a level of Supply or resistance So we know that we've got a level here Now when prices do come up to this level here at the top We can see that we are already at a Level where we are getting some sort of rejection before that we had some rejections But there was really no clear level of support and resistance in conjunction with the Bollinger band And as we can see now when prices did come up to here we were touching the Upper band and we were near the upper band We've also got some price action some negative price action bearish and then prices traded down to the mean We can also see again right here Where we have a level of Demand or what traders may call support And we can see that prices when they came back down in We can see that prices actually came out of the band and then put in some bullish price action with this engulfing candle here Again supported by the fact that it was a Bollinger band Bounce and again we have if you extend it across we have another Bounce here back up to the mean bounces back up to the means so We can see a level here Where you have prices come back up You've got a level of resistance and again it's to do with The combination of Bollinger bands and levels of support and resistance So we had this level here prices rejected when prices came back down in prices traders will look to You know by at this area here because you can see that with the Bollinger band We have some confirmation and confirming price action as well This is quite a bullish price action and again We have a level of resistance and prices came back up into this level here We can see prices didn't stay outside for too long before Moving down so Bollinger band bounces Again are really just Traders will trade them Once prices come outside or touch or a near the upper or lower bands together with areas of support and resistance as Buying and selling Opportunities now in this example on the US dollar Swiss Frank pair. We can see Several bounces and opportunities for traders to really enter the market now you have an example here and Prices have been coming down and then prices basically get rejected now We don't know whether this is going to be a level of support but aggressive traders will Try to enter On the first touch and as you can see when prices did come back down into this level It didn't stay outside of the Bollinger band for too long and in fact we put in quite a bullish price action candlestick, so One way traders will get in is they will either get in on a pending order once prices come back into the band So that they can minimize their Their risk so they went when prices go outside of the band and prices come back in They will then put their stop loss below low and potentially get into the upside All what traders will do is they will wait for price to confirm So that's the bullish price action stop below the low and then you have your prices targets as far as profit targets some traders may want to take Targets at the at the mean and some traders will want to extend their targets but Bollinger bands really should be traded with Confluence in mind because it's Again, it really does depend on the state of the market whether the market is trending or Ranging if you don't know what trending or ranging markets are we have a video in the Tutorial section on identifying trends So let's look at some more examples here So we can see actually Wasn't one here. We had one Cell Again to the upside so we had prices basically rejected from here and Then prices as they made their way up into this Bollinger band here prices came outside Prices came back in as prices come back in and close inside candlestick close traders would have either have got in like that or They may have waited for confirming price action. It's quite a negative candle there and Then look to either take profit at the other side of the band if the risk reward obviously meets the criteria and Yeah, so we have another example there We have an example here where prices came out came back in once they closed inside the bands to the upside and it was at a level of Support now confirm support because we had one two three now four touches And again prices come up So you can start to see where Bollinger bands can be very very useful when it comes to predicting reversals in the market as price doesn't necessarily want to stay outside of the bands for very long You can see on this candle wick here to the right you can see prices came out But by the end of the day, they were right back in prices don't stay out for very long So I hope that helps with trading Bollinger bands. If you have any questions, please email me at info at trading 1at.com


So are there any other questions you have about the new treatment regimen we're starting today? No, I just want this treatment to work and get my energy back. I do too. I'm hopeful that it will give you a good response. And because of that, I think it's a good time to talk about some of the hard things. You remember way back in the beginning, I said there was a time when chemo therapy might not work, not now, but might not work. And if that time comes, I want to be sure I know what you want, what you don't want, how you feel about things. Am I at that point now? Do we have to talk about this now? So you're not at that point and that's why I think it's the right time to talk about it. When it's urgent, it's very hard to think this through and you don't have enough time to kind of think through the pros and cons of the different situations. You know, if I couldn't live my life the way that I have and be me, I wouldn't want to live. So that's important for me to know and there are probably a lot of specifics about what that means. That would be helpful for you to think about and for you to share with me. And so I have for you a brochure that lists all sorts of scenarios of things that might happen and by reviewing them it will give you an idea of what's important to tell me about what you do and don't want. And you should review it with the person you'd want to speak for you and then bring it back and we can review it together. I think it will help you think this through and it gives you control over what happens and that's really what I want. You know, it would be my brother Mike who would make those decisions if I couldn't. He's the best friend I've ever had. Yeah, he's called me at different times. He's a great support. Maybe he could come to that next appointment. I'll ask him to. He can probably come with me. That would be great.


Hell yeah, what's up guys this cruise pipe my friends call me big see I'm back in action today I'm gonna show you the green screen like a pro and not only that we're gonna green screen some video I'm gonna show you how to do it using free footage and free software and free Everything guys a lot of people are getting started in YouTube look scary right? How do you make these cool videos? It looks so hard. It must be so hard. It's not I'm gonna show you how to do it in like three or four minutes Using only free tools. This is the footage. I selected it is awful and it is deliberately awful This is a lady that's very poorly lit in front of a chalkboard for all intents and purposes That's got stuff all over it. It doesn't look right at all I've selected the hardest the ugliest the most difficult footage on purpose because if you can green screen this using free tools You can green screen literally anything so here is what proper footage should look like here's a video of a lady A nice looking lady just doing whatever the heck in front of a properly that green screen Easy very easy to to fix this not so much not to worry Let's go to hit film express and see what the end result looks like Left-click clicking right here and presto. You'll see here that I've got that lady Talking from in front of that green front of that chalkboard Lit and talking in front of an image of the Eiffel Tower just about just about a perfect green screen So let's go ahead and start from scratch and let me show you how I did it All right I'm gonna delete all that footage and we're gonna start from zero the first step is you want to take the footage Which is that ugly green screen footage and I mean the footage is ugly not the ladies ugly She's very pretty left-click on it drag it into video track one just like this if it's your first time it'll say Yeah, do you want to change the settings? Make sure you click on yes You want your settings to be equal to the green screen footage in almost every instance, okay? Good stuff now. We're gonna take this image We're gonna take this video Pardon me, and we're gonna move it to track 2 or video 2 But here's the thing There's a good chance that you don't see video 2 or you only see video 1 Because you want to basically move this little line here so that you get more video and you can also adjust this here So that you get more screen on the video tracks depending on the size of your monitor and how it's set up So just make sure that you can see video track 1 and video track 2 take video track 1 And just left-click and move it up. You just basically move it and there we go. It's on video track 2 Alright, we are on our way Now the next step is I'm gonna go ahead and grab the image that I'm using I'm using just a stock image, but you can use a background video a background image, whatever I'm just gonna go ahead and select this and move it to video track 1 and Presto there we go. You'll see nothing of course First step is you want to make sure that these two are the same length So I'm just gonna just go ahead and slide that out You just grab the edge and move it so that the track 1 and track 2 the video and the image or the video and the Other video are the same length now. Let's go ahead and start making some changes I'm gonna go ahead and click on video 2 make sure you click on the video And now it's time to start adding in the effects the first effect that you want is color difference key It's under keying color difference Cree if you don't see it just type it in here color Difference and hit enter and there you go. There you see it. It's under keying left click on it Drag and drop it onto video track 2. I missed it. There we go And now when you I do that you'll see that the background is sort of starting to peek through So we're on to something. Okay. Good enough now What you want to do now is you want to go down to the controls So we're under control. So we've added the effect and now we're in the controls panel But we're under effects and you're gonna see here green screen color Make sure it's selected to green unless you happen to have a blue screen and then change it to blue Now we have a couple of Values that we can dial in the most important one is the min value It starts at point six five and as you can see in this one because it's so poorly lit We got to jack this up. So we're going to move this all the way up to point Nine eight in this instance and for some of you that might be just good enough right there It's not perfect because when I hit spacebar, you'll see a little bit of sparkling in her dress Which means that we don't have a perfect Chroma key or green screen, but we're very very close For this one, I'm going to go ahead and take down the max to point nine eight as well Oops see how this is kind of tricky though because at point nine seven it's toast But if I go to point nine eight watch this and this is a fault of the software I believe it's not this isn't as good as the adobe stuff if I'm being honest But this is free software and it won't cost you a penny. So there's that which is kind of beneficial point nine eight works Point nine seven was a mess anyways. Let's go ahead and hit spacebar And we're very very close to having a good chroma key or a good green screen key It's actually really really close actually I'm going to just up the gamma a little bit so that it's a little bit brighter And I'm going to up it to about one point two There we go. And now let's take a look at what we got Ah, no a bit too much. So let's go back to one. Let's go back to about one wherever it was one point I'll go back to one. Yeah, let's go back to one Hit spacebar. This is an excellent chroma key or color difference key in this case Now you're going to notice that the background the Eiffel tower isn't quite the right size So I'm going to go ahead and click on video track one, which is my image And then I'm going to scroll out a little bit so you can see here So I've just zoomed out and I'm going to go ahead and increase the size of this image And I'm going to reposition it down. No wrong one. I'm going to reposition her here And then I'm going to reposition the image going to click back on the image I'm going to move the image to the left and down a little bit something like that. What do you think? I mean, again, this doesn't really matter too much. It's just the effect that I'm trying to show you But let's go with something like that. Okay, there she is.  I'm going to go back to zoomed into 100 percent here That may be a bit much and let's go to fit to screen actually because that's better Scale to fit and I hit spacebar and presto. We've got the lady She's talking in front of the Eiffel tower It'd be very hard for you to know that this was green screen if you weren't looking for it Also, if you want to go one step further, you'll notice that the lady here when we click on her footage Like if I double click on it, she's very poorly lit So you can actually go ahead and if you're if you're filming at home and it's not lit the way you want it You can type in auto And then you're going to see something called auto color under color correction You can just drag and drop that on top of the green screen footage And it makes her a little bit brighter and that looks like she's been lit a little better This isn't a requirement, but it doesn't hurt And if you don't like it if it's too much brightness, you can go ahead and just change the blend with the original So you're just changing how much blend there is So if you look at the this footage and then you look at this footage It looks a little bit more like she was lit properly. This is an additional step. You don't have to do it But that's it guys. That's how you green screen for free using free tools like a champion That's it And we took some of the hardest, ugliest green screen footage on the planet Well, not on the planet, but that I could find and we made it pretty Thanks for watching guys. Time for stuff coming up. Stay tuned. Be back soon


Welcome everyone to another exclusive CoinTelegram interview. I'm your host Jackson and today I'm going to be talking to Scott Melker aka the Wolf of All Streets. We're going to be talking about the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, Bitcoin dominance, we'll cover XRP, Ethereum, and we'll also look at some coins that are hot right now. Let's get into it. The total cryptocurrency market cap passed $2 trillion on April 5th, according to data from CoinGecko. This came just three months after the cryptocurrency market surpassed $1 trillion for the first time back on January 7th when Bitcoin was only $33,000. Do you see any signs of the current crypto bull market slowing down? I don't. I think what's important to note when you're watching it will be obviously the interplay between Bitcoin and alts, Bitcoin dominance and its role. But as a function of total market cap, I think we'll continue to see it rise dramatically. There are so many signs that this will happen. We know that huge money is coming into the space. There's no question that we're going to see more institutional announcements. I think we'll see an ETF. I think that we're going to continue to see more corporations and banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs starting to offer crypto, even if it's only to their wealthier clients as they're doing right now. I just don't see a situation at the most basic level where you have simple supply and demand where we see much downward movement at this point. If there's increased demand, we're seeing outflows from exchanges, not inflows, right? So people are buying, it's moving off exchange. There's supply reducing, supply side shock and more demand. That means the number should continue to go up. So I don't see any reason right now to be bearish overall. Do you think that it will continue this like exponential growth that we saw over the past few months? Yeah, I think we're only at the beginning of that parabola. I really do. I can be wrong. It's an opinion. You know what I mean? Like there's a million things that could happen, certainly. But the whole it's going to zero. It has no value, no intrinsic value, all that. Those narratives are dead, right? It's killed them. It's crushed them. It's proven its strength and amazing what can happen in a year. Because last March, everyone was saying it was dead and going to zero. And I think that it's proven they were wrong. It's here to stay. Regulators are looking at it. I think it's going to become another normal asset in your average investor's portfolio in the coming years. So I don't see why it would drop dramatically. I do think eventually we'll see less volatility as a result when it becomes more normal and standardized. So maybe the exponential upside that we had for years will slowly diminish with Bitcoin itself. And we'll see some of that move into all coins and smaller projects. But I do think that still it becomes a part of every sensible investor's portfolio even to a small degree. I think a lot of people feel similarly. But you mentioned altcoins. So I'd like to dive into the current state of the crypto market at the moment. Bitcoin dominance is currently sitting below 60% for the first time since October 2020. Market analyst Michael Vandepop expects a very bullish summer for altcoins. And you also tweeted on March 29th that altcoins look great. Do you think that we're officially in alt season 2.0? Some people think that this is now the new alt season. Do you agree? I think it's been alt season for like four months. And so even when I said that in March, it was kind of tongue in cheek. Honestly, I think it's been somewhat alt season for years. It just depends on which alts are in season, right? So a lot of people argued that it wasn't alt season last summer when DeFi projects were pulling 100 and 200 and 300 Xs right before that bubble popped, of course. But depending on which market you look like, it's sort of segmented. I mean, look what we've seen in the NFTs in the last six months. If you consider that a part of the crypto market, then that's certainly an alt season, so to speak, or NFT season, if you want to call it that. That said, if you're using dominance as the metric of what an alt season is, we've seen dominance slowly dropping this time. But those 2017 and 18 alt seasons were like a 20% drop in dominance in a week, or over four or five weeks. And we're still seeing small movements. So if we start to see that level of dominance drop, the alt season that Michael is talking about could potentially just be mind blowing. What kind of factors do you think would lead to such a severe drop in dominance to create this summer alt season for alt coins? I think just consistently and safely lack sideways Bitcoin that's not that volatile at the moment. Listen, if Bitcoin goes up 20% in a week or two, alts are going to suffer. At least on their Bitcoin pairs. That's the other important thing here. If you consider alts on their USD pairs, even though they've underperformed Bitcoin, if that's how you trade, I mean, they've followed Bitcoin right up on this 10, 12 X in a year, right? Maybe they do seven or eight X while Bitcoin does a 10 or 12 and you think it's great while they're getting destroyed by Bitcoin. I consider an alt season when you compete Bitcoin. That's the name of the game, right? So it's all about the trader's definition. And so that's really when Bitcoin dominance is dropping. I just think also dominance is a bit more of a difficult metric to use right now because we're seeing so many new alt coins added to the market on a daily, weekly, monthly basis. I mean, the amount of launches of new projects, obviously that plays into more dominance for alt coins and will naturally bring Bitcoin dominance. Now there's just more coins competing in that number. But as for factors, we would look for, I just think that more strength in the market and overall more money coming in, more confidence, it just naturally trickles down. This is like the only market in the world where trickle-down economics actually work. The money comes in first. It comes into Bitcoin. Bitcoin is like, I grew up in the United States in the 80s, 90s when the war on drugs was initiated and they always called marijuana the gateway drug. Like all of a sudden, if you smoked weed once, you were going to become a crackhead within three years living on the corner. Well, Bitcoin's the gateway drug for alts, right? And as more people become interested in Bitcoin and it starts to go sideways a little bit or they're not seeing these huge gains, but they start to hear about, oh my gosh, Ethereum, what's Litecoin? And then pretty soon they're trading like a coin that's 990th in total market cap on coin market cap on Uniswap like a degenerate. It's just how this market works. Yeah. The downward spiral is I think something we've all experienced something great. It's fast. It's fast. So do you think it's too late to hop on the altcoin bandwagon? No, no, not at all. I think that if the entire market goes parabolic, they'll be dragged along by their earlobe, by Bitcoin, the big brother, the angry bully, big brother. Listen, you have to time it if you're trying to trade it, but if you're a long-term investor, which most people should be and there's altcoins you're interested in and you just want to responsibly dollar cost average into them, I'm quite confident that you'll be very happy in a year. I don't think you're going to lose money if you invest in altcoins over a longer time period, but you might not do as well as Bitcoin. So it really depends on your expectation and what you're trying to accomplish. So let's take a look at some of these altcoins that have made some particularly interesting moves over the past week or so. Let's start with XRP because everyone seems to be focused on that one at the moment. XRP briefly passed $1 for the first time since 2018, which is quite something. And this may seem surprising to a lot of people because a number of exchanges have delisted XRP following an SEC lawsuit that was filed back in December 2020. But what is your interpretation of XRP's recent pump over a dollar? I think it shows how nascent this market is, how small this market is, and how easily it reacts to small things. I mean, effectively what happened with Ripple to my understanding is that a judge ruled discovery on the SEC's document. So Ripple gets a closer look at the claims that the SEC is making. So they can basically work on a technicality to eliminate the identification as a security. They're going to see, basically they're getting an inside look at the SEC's case against them, which they wouldn't have necessarily had. And then the market reacted. And of course, then you see pundit screaming that the case is over and that Ripple won and that they're going to get relisted. And none of that is the truth, right? So as usual, we get a whole lot of fake news based on a small story, the market pumps. But listen, XRP looked very bottom out. It's not dead. I'm not trading it because historically every time it goes up, we see a huge tranche of coins move from Ripple's treasury to exchanges to dump on the very fans that are buying it. Now maybe they can't do that anymore because they're under scrutiny. So maybe it has a clearer path to success as far as price. But yet again, it's important to note, yeah, Ripple's above a dollar, but Bitcoin went up like 14 or 15 times this year. So why is Ripple up? Because Bitcoin dragged it up, right? So yes, in this very temporary window right now, it's beating Bitcoin. But if you look at an XRP chart versus Bitcoin, it's like bottomed out and rounding up. It's not like this mega pump like you kind of see on the dollar chart. So yet again, it comes down to your interpretation. I think that if the market does well and Ripple doesn't get more bad news, it should naturally rise because it got destroyed. And what goes down generally comes back up. And what goes up generally goes back down. There's a mean reversion to most of these coins. So would you say that the fate of XRP is essentially largely dependent on the outcome of this SEC filing? In the shorter term, yes. I mean, I think that it would just destroy interest in trading the coin. But then again, I think Ripple is a successful company. And XRP or however they proceed will be used for cross-border payments as they sort of describe. So price and value are not necessarily the same. It could continue to be very functional and a great tool. I mean, if you've ever sent XRP, instead of sending Bitcoin, it's lightning fast.  It works. So I don't see it dying in that perspective. But if you can't trade it anywhere, it becomes really hard to see the value rise. Do you have any short-term targets for XRP? I think a lot of people were talking about $10, as soon as the $1 mark was crossed. Oh, people. That's the problem with people. They're not smart. And when people get together in big groups, they become exponentially dumber, it would seem, when it comes to financial markets. Although if you have ever read the book Sapiens, it would argue that the fact that humans can, you know, interact in large groups and make decisions is what sets us apart and actually makes us intelligent. But if you read Crypto Twitter, you might discount that very quickly.  I'm not saying it's impossible. It's totally possible, but so is $100 and so is $10,000. Anything's possible. But there's no rational reason to be making that decision. Making that guess right now. And I like to stay somewhat grounded. It's just exuberance, you know? It's an irrational exuberance. In fact, the day people start really talking about $10 is probably the day to sell an asset. Not XRP in particular, just general market behavior. When everybody's getting really exuberant and greedy, it's time to sell. It's just the way that markets work. Seems fair. Wait, let's put aside XRP for the moment and let's move on to Ethereum. A lot of people have been talking about Ethereum lately because Ethereum broke $2,000 quite recently. But I wanted to get your opinion on the comment made by your favorite crypto Twitter. A pseudomonist trader said that right now ETH is arguably leading the market, whereas Bitcoin is trying to catch up. Would you agree with this? I think it's hyperbolic. I believe that was wrecked capital. I love that guy. I think he's an incredible analyst and he's actually written stuff for my newsletter before we're friendly. I love the sentiment, but I don't think there's any point where anything but Bitcoin technically is leading the market. But that said, I'm more bullish on Ethereum than Bitcoin. I have been for quite a while for different reasons. For different reasons. Like I think that Ethereum has a chance to outperform as far as price as a trader. It doesn't mean I'm more bullish on it as an asset. I would much rather hold Bitcoin as an inflation hedge for all of those reasons. But if I'm looking at it as a trader, obviously, listen, gas fees and stuff, that's not sustainable. Using Ethereum is difficult, but the amount of building that's happening on Ethereum, the amount that was staked in Ethereum 2.0, and if we see Layer 2 solutions and solve this and we see Ethereum 2.0 be successful, it's like investing in the internet in the early 1990s to me. I just think that it has incredible upside potential and it's sort of being downplayed. So I think it's hyperbolic, again, to say that it's leading the market per se, but I do think that it's the best leading indicator of when alts will perform well. And during times, I mean, Bitcoin as of today, I know this won't go up today, but it had been trading basically in a $2,000 to $3,000 range for weeks. It finally broke that down a bit today, but that might just be a shakeout. And during that time, we just saw Ethereum do exceptionally well. So I think that that's a good barometer of what will happen in future times of Bitcoin consolidation. So you said that Ethereum right now is outperforming Bitcoin. What kind of timeframe do you see that on? Like, do you see Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin this year or just like in the next couple months or something? Well, right now it's been doing it for two weeks, right? And two weeks is like a really solid time for an altcoin to outperform Bitcoin, especially when we've seen Bitcoin making moves that strong. But put it this way, I have generally dollar cost averaged into Bitcoin for five years, right? Like daily, I almost, I buy a little bit. I switched that largely over to Ethereum, you know, in the last five, six months.  So if my behavior is a determinant, I also buy Bitcoin. But if my behavior is a determinant of what I believe, then my conviction and my money says, yeah, I think Ethereum has more upside and I wouldn't be doing that unless it was for, you know, at least a year time horizon, if not more. I just think Ethereum has tremendous, tremendous upside. Fair. So to wrap things up, you recently did a video about the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap in which you analyzed those top 10 coins barring tether. Were there any of those coins that particularly stood out to you and got you really excited? So if Bitcoin consolidates, I think large caps will continue to do well, and then it will pass on and they'll sort of go sideways to the smaller coins and down the line. Maybe we just saw the first big move on large caps. So if you're talking about very short term, I would say that, you know, the excitement around those is potentially diminished for the coming days. But, you know, I think a Litecoin chart looks exceptional. I mean, BNB chart looks exceptional. I think, you know, BNB I think could hit $600. I think that Litecoin is potentially targeting around $350. I think that there's a lot of potential movement there. I mean, Bitcoin just went into price discovery, excuse me, BNB, Binance coin just went into price discovery against both Bitcoin and the USD pairs. So it's not just beating the dollar and trailing Bitcoin. It's beating Bitcoin as well and making new all time highs. So if I had to, and obviously pancake swap and Binance smart chain, there's a lot of bullishness around that coin and its actual utility. So I think if I had to choose one, that would probably be it. Then Ethereum and Litecoin. Litecoin has just taken an absolute beating. It's like the redheaded stepchild, you know, of the large caps. And so that, like I said, you eventually revert to the mean. So we saw a huge sort of move in Litecoin and now it's come back down, I think, to retest those levels and should be heading back up. And final question for you, Scott. Do you have any particular price expectations for Bitcoin and Ethereum this year? A lot of people have been throwing around $100,000 for Bitcoin and I don't know, what $10,000 maybe for Ethereum? Do you think those are reasonable? I think that I called for $10,000 Ethereum like two or three months ago and boy did I get a hell lot of hate for that, which made me a lot more confident that it was certainly possible. But in the short term, I think $3,600 for Ethereum is what I'm actually looking for just based on the chart and there was a huge bullpen that sort of broke out. So I think that that's a reasonable target for this year and that would be a huge move, right? And also like $10,000, I don't see why that's crazy. It's basically just under a 5x from here, like we're sitting over $2,000. Bitcoin did almost three times that last year, right? So we know that that can happen in this market. As far as Bitcoin, it's hard to put a timeline on it, but I would say that I believe this cycle top will be somewhere in the 200s reasonably and that's not a number I come up with technically or whatever. This is what we did. So there's a classic tale called the parable of the ox and at a fair, there's a famous statistician and once again, human beings are terrible at making predictions as an individual. But as a group, they're shockingly good when you take an average of all of their predictions. So there was this fair and nobody came close, but when you took the average of the few 100 people that had guessed it was within one pound of the weight of an ox that they were supposed to be guessing. And so that's been extrapolated throughout time and so what people have been doing and what we did, we took all the predictions that we could find. My team, there was someone did it with like 100, we took like a 20. From stock to flow to everything, people saying 3,000, people saying a million and it averaged out to 235,000. So to me, if you just take an average of all these ludicrous predictions in every single direction, that maybe that will give us a target on our cycle highs. Well, thank you, Scott, for coming on the show today. I really appreciate it. Thank you, man. It's great. Thank you, everyone, for watching. That was Scott Melker, aka The Wolf of All Streets. My name is Jackson and if you enjoyed the video, please hit that like button and subscribe to our channel.


following the previous videos in this video I'm going to continue explaining the factors that are affecting crude oil price. In this video I will start with international economy. As we learned previously crude oil is an international commodities, a global commodity is being traded everywhere in the world. Every part of the world economy can have impact on the crude oil price. Some countries that are contributing to the biggest portion of crude oil consumption their economy can potentially have big impact on a crude oil price. So when trading starts early in the morning on the exchange in New York, Asian market is already closed and European market is at midday. So the behavior of the market, the signs of how market will behave they are already known. And probably the most watched nation these days outside of the US is China. China is contributing to around 15% of the world GDP and China is after the United States is the second largest consumer of crude oil. After China Japan used to be the third largest consumer of crude oil. After the Fukushima nuclear disaster Japan's import of fossil fuel increased but at the moment India is in the third place taking the Japan's place in oil consumption of the world. Also the European Union and Europe region is consuming around 22% of world crude oil and this data is from 2013. So economic growth in these regions that are large consumers of crude oil can influence the crude oil if the economy is doing good. If the economic growth rate is high it gives a signal that the demand in the future there will be high demand for crude oil in the future and if the economy is slowing down it means that the expected demand will not be as high as before. The increasing demand will be not as high as before and it is going to potentially affect the price of crude oil. The other factor that can potentially influence the crude oil price is the United States exchange rate as as you know crude oil is globally being traded in US dollar. So if the fluctuation of the exchange rate US dollar compared to the other currencies can potentially affect the crude oil price why because there are many traders outside of the United States and they are trading the crude oil which is being traded in US dollar. So if the dollar value decreases if dollar US dollar loses its value it means that those traders living outside of the United States will have higher buying power so they can buy more crude oil futures contract. It means that there will be higher demand from outside of the United States. It will increase the demand of crude oil and can potentially increase the price. So usually there is a strong correlation negative correlation between United States US dollar value and crude oil price. During the periods of a strong US dollar foreign traders investors try to sell their future contracts and when the US dollar loses its value they tend to buy more contracts. The other factor that can impact the price of oil is geopolitical events especially in the regions that are big producers of oil. Any conflict or potential conflict can impact the prices. Any news that can give the sense of potential interruption in supply can increase the price. Please note that it doesn't need to it doesn't necessarily need something to happen that entrop the supply. Traders are also humans they are they behave emotionally they can react to the news in an emotional way. So if news says some potential conflict in the region that's producing large producing countries are located it can potentially affect the perception of the supply in the future. It can entrop the supply or it could potentially interrupt the supply or it can influence the perception of the supply in the future and can have significant impact on the crude oil prices. For example in mid-June 2014 WTI West Texas Intermediate crude oil price was about 107 dollars per barrel and at the end of that year it went down to around 54 dollars per barrel. We can explain this price behavior into two major factors that influence the price. First the increased supply of oil in the United States coming from mostly coming from unconventional reservoirs shale and tight sense because the price of oil was high and at this price at around 100 it's totally economically feasible to produce oil from costly unconventional reserves. Around this time Saudi Arabia that is one of the largest producer an exporter of crude oil tried to maintain the market share by flooding the market with cheap oil but this strategy caused excess supply and price to drop substantially. Low price of oil can have large impact on oil producing countries that are highly dependent on the revenue from oil. Also in the United States companies who are working on the exploration and production section of oil they will have to cut back on exploration and drilling activities because they lose their revenue and potentially if the price is too low they can potentially the small companies they can go bankrupt. The other major player in the oil global market is OPEC or the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC was formed in 1960 by the first five member including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia in Venezuela and right now at the moment 2017 it has 14 members. OPEC produces around 43% of the world's total crude oil in 2015 and OPEC members control about 73% of world's total oil reserves. So every decision that OPEC member every agreement or even the meetings that don't come to an agreement can potentially affect the price of crude oil. For example if OPEC members come to an agreement and they cut back the production it can cause the supply the whole supply to decrease and eventually cause price increase. And if in their meetings let's say that there's a time and there's a conflict and it's also politics also also involved always involved in in the decisions if there is a period that price are going down and they cannot come into an agreement for cutting back the production then it can potentially affect market prices and can potentially cannot stop the price decrease.


What I thought I'd explained first of all is the natural processes and how they act on a range of different timescales from thousands of years to hundreds of thousands of years through to seasons. So probably a great example of how these interactions actually occur is if we look at the Vostok ice core. Now the Vostok ice core is where scientists have gone to the Antarctic and they have drilled a core down to almost two kilometres and they've extracted the ice from that core. Within that ice is little bubbles of air which you can imagine are actually then sort of horizontally aligned so we can have a sense of when that sample of the atmosphere actually occurred. They extract the air from those bubbles and they can measure the greenhouse gases in those bubbles of air. So what we do see is we see these large fluctuations occur over those 800,000 years. But when we get to the present day we see a very clear human induced signal so we see a very rapid accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Far greater than has occurred in the last 800,000 years and the rate of accumulation is far more rapid than any time in that observational record. So we see then that even within the historical record we see that there is natural variability that's occurring and this trend that we're starting to see from the greenhouse gas concentrations. We see things like years that are dry and years that are wet and those are associated with both El Niños and La Nina. So this is the temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and as those temperatures and those patterns of sea surface temperature change that actually changes the patterns of rainfall across the entire planet. So we have these seasonal variations that are natural and then we have this pervasive trend that's actually occurring in the temperatures because of the accumulation of greenhouse gases and as those temperatures in the atmosphere change because of the greenhouse gases they interact with the natural variability that's occurring and they're altering that natural variability.