All right, it looks like we are on a welcome everyone today. We are continuing our series of live hangout on airs with the great NASA people that were able to help put this course together with us at the Sailor Academy I'm David Rose for those of you who were able to tune in two weeks ago with Jeff Ellosin We had a great conversation. He answered a lot of questions about systems engineering project managers and today we have Lisa Guerrero with us. Lisa is the technical assistant to the NASA Deputy Associate Administrator She's also an aerospace engineer. She works out of headquarters in Washington, DC She works on matters related to assessing the agency's technical capabilities in her 20-plus year career at NASA. She's done a lot of different things from designing human missions to Mars to developing the acquisition strategy for the James Webb Space Telescope STEM education partnership partnerships She's also a former research fellow at the University of Texas Austin where she developed a master's degree program in System design and built the online space systems engineering course that served as a launching point for this current Sailor NASA SSE course that you've all been taking So needless to say without Lisa's work This course would not exist at all and so for that we are extremely grateful and she's been instrumental in helping us adapt her course from University of Texas into the current SSE 101 course that you've all been taking so that is a brief intro on and I'll let her kind of introduce herself and tell you a little bit more about her and then we'll get into More question and answers just like we did last time. So Great. Thank you, David. I appreciate the opportunity to Speak to our students virtually. I'm so impressed with the number of people taking this course Which validates the interest in space systems engineering and we're really enjoying getting some of the positive feedback from you students So I'll give you a little bit more about my background and how I got introduced to systems engineering I came out of the University of Notre Dame with two degrees one in airspace engineering and one in English So it just shows you you could be multi disciplinary Still enjoy the liberal arts, but then when I decided to go to graduate school I focused on my engineering work and I went to the University of Texas at Austin and Received a master's degree in systems and aerospace engineering at the time I didn't realize I was doing systems engineering, but my thesis work was sponsored by NASA and the topic was lunar surface habitation and basically Assessing all the subsystems from the space station which was in design at that time and Seeing how you could redesign and integrate these subsystems differently to build a base on the moon And in addition to my specific thesis work on habitation My colleagues in the department were building a lunar base model or a simulation of Various missions to the moon and so without realizing it. I was doing systems engineering Both on a habitation level, but also then integrated with spacecraft and orbits and mission design How many crew would go and all the variables? To understand what's an optimum approach to building a lunar base model? So that was fascinating. I loved it. It was a great entree To start in the work world and my first job was with a company called Eagle Engineering They had an interesting business model. They hired Many retirees from NASA who had just accomplished the Apollo program going to the moon And these guys would sit out a big bullpen and they would be our advisors So they're like ten of us permanent engineers hired to design moon and Mars missions with crews And then we would use these Apollo experts to help inform our designs. So again through that cadre of excellent expertise I learned a lot a lot about the different systems and how Apollo happened and how we took their lessons learned Into the designs for future Mars missions. I also worked it on a Mars sample return design mission And different concepts there. So again early in my career. I was doing Formulations so the early phases of design Sadly none of the missions I worked on at that point had come to fruition not even the Mars sample return But it was a great learning experience from some very expert people And another interesting aspect to Eagle Engineering is they had an art department So we the engineers would work with the artists to really conceptualize and even build scale models of Our systems and even to understand integration better across the systems So it was a really interesting business approach But I left Eagle and I went on to another contractor supporting the Johnson Space Center and in that role I continued to look at lunar and Mars missions now This is in the 80s the 1980s and President Bush was pushing us towards Exploration missions beyond space station and I again continued with more the trade studies work looking at various concepts and being able to Establish criteria and judge those different mission design concepts I also had the ability to learn from some of my contractor managers to get into Risk assessment and so I did quite a bit of probabilistic risk assessment on missions And that's another aspect of systems engineering and trying to understand your system better By understanding the inherent risks in the design approach So again through that position that was in the formulation phase I really learned some of the key skills. I still use today related to systems engineering So then in the early 90s, I actually joined NASA as a civil servant And left the conceptual world and actually was brought in to be part of a cadre of engineers to do Performance reviews on missions and development. So all of you have been learning about the project life cycle in this current unit and the Lexicon we use now the key decision points KDP throughout the life cycle. That's a rather new addition to how we run our project life cycles, but in the early to mid 90s We would do Review boards, but more on an annual basis until we got to that big confirmation review When we would decide whether to continue a mission or not so I served on a number of these boards for missions that range from earth science satellites to the space station to an Astrophysics mission called gravity probe B to all the various science instruments and Platforms that are on the space station. So it was a fascinating way for me as a early Engineer in the NASA community to really get a full Perspective on all the different types of missions we do but by being on a review board and critiquing these missions and Understanding are they meeting the requirements as they're working their way through the life cycle? It really helped me understand systems engineering as a whole. I think that's when I first understood the field of systems engineering all my previous work was fun and lots of conceptual studies and imagining going to Mars, but actually reviewing current missions Showed how we actually apply our processes and tools And then I'll give one more highlight of my experience. So after doing project reviews I came here to Goddard Space Flight Center and worked on the James Webb Space Telescope You've heard about that mission quite a bit through our course as we've used it as an example And you've met some of the current players But believe it or not this mission will have been in development from the beginning of the life cycle to launch For about 20 years So I was in the very early phases of that pre phase a and into phase a And that's the the time when you're formulating the concepts. We had three different designs that we were Tracking performance. We were doing lots of trade studies. What orbit should this telescope be in? As you know, it's a successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. So we were considering whether James Webb Space Telescope should be Serviceable by astronauts. What would that mean to the design and the orbit we select? So it was the fun time of being on that mission where you're just considering all aspects Of how this could play out while meeting John Mather and his cadre of science by meeting their objectives So that was just a fascinating period to work on that mission another aspect of it What you can think of as systems engineering is Looking at the acquisition strategy So I led a team of different types of engineers as well as cost analysts To look at You know, how much of this mission should we contract out to a contractor? How many of the instruments do we want provided by foreign? Space agencies how much do we want to retain at Goddard to do in-house who should do the systems engineering and integration? It even came down to What type of launch vehicle and this will be the first mission we launch on a foreign launch vehicle already on five So we actually did numerous trades to then help inform what we call an acquisition strategy or what you think of as make or buy decisions and those decisions are Performed very early in the life cycle, but now we're seeing them play out through the left rest of the life cycle And now all the players that you hear are involved in this mission We actually set the clock running for them way back in 1999 So that was definitely a highlight for me. I think The various experiences I've had up to that point It me realizes an engineer that I'm much better at that formulation phase of the work or strategic or conceptual Trying to codify the right requirements to get a mission started. So to be honest I've not worked the latter part of a life cycle You know in a way, you'll see that with various engineers if you talk to them about their careers You realize what you're good at and you keep finding opportunities to work on that aspect of a mission So I'll leave it at that Yeah, I mean Lisa. I mean you're obviously Well-qualified, I mean you have experience in so many different aspects of systems engineering that everyone's been learning about So I mean I guess that leads into our first question of I mean obviously of the background, but I guess why was the initial reason for creating that course at UT Austin? Sure so Back up to the year 2006 and we had a new NASA administrator at the time and He gave a speech at the University of Texas at Austin and He emphasized the need to teach students systems engineering UT the Department of Aerospace Engineering down there. They're ranked in the top ten in the country NASA hires quite a few people that come out of that degree program But what he saw was this lack of their understanding of systems engineering such that when NASA hires You know, they still need some training or understanding of just where they fit in to the bigger scheme of things and how missions play out so I Did my graduate work down there and all those years later I've always maintained a rapport with UT Austin in my old department and my Faculty who were my advisors for my thesis are still there So I had been down for a visit Just after the administrator and they spoke with me about hey What is the systems engineering thing that he was talking about and how could we possibly? Integrate that into our curriculum So basically it wound up where they invited me to come down to the University on a temporary basis as a research fellow and The idea being that NASA could pilot a course in space systems engineering See how it played at UT, which is what we did and then offer it to other Universities around the country. So I first did a workshop and about a hundred universities came and we Discussed it walked through it really had the feedback from students and a dialogue with the faculty on how they could Integrate it into their curriculum The course was set up in a modular way so that if the faculty do not want to teach it Mass they could pick units out and integrate it into their capstone design projects, so basically I Developed the course. I had a teaching assistant who had just gotten a master's in systems engineering from Georgia Tech So he had a great perspective from the students side and the two of us Audited the design capstone design course that all the grad the seniors need to take and we saw where we Could help them apply systems engineering tools and concepts to make for a better mission design And so the way you to set it up is to have systems engineering the space systems engineering course as a prerequisite to capstone design But many of the other universities that have picked this up like Purdue and Cal Poly West Virginia they've integrated the modules Into the capstone design course and spread it out over a year So basically we now have all my materials on a website that the space grant consortium posts and Any faculty any students who are self-motivated can pull that material from the website and learn from it So it was quite a success and I'd like to show some slides from my early Early class at UT are the slides up David I think they're being shared right now. Are we locked down on that screen? I Think so okay, so the first slide is all about How I saw the goal of the course and granted this is a whole semester long course And it's meant for seniors in aerospace engineering But it the goal applies to you It's not trying to make Everyone who takes the course the systems engineer that was not my intent Intent was to give them the breath and sense of what systems engineering is And what are some of the processes and tools that they could apply as they went out into the workforce as engineers? Knowing that they will still have their own path through their career to get them to be a systems engineer That's what they decide to do. So I've always put that up as a caveat that just because you take this course doesn't mean you walk out as a systems engineer The next slide I'm not sure if it's up There we go. There we go. So the next slide is a fuzzy picture of my Longhorn students who took the pilot class? so They were my guinea pigs they all signed up and in their last semester their senior year and Fascinating group of students very capable most of them had done internships in industry Just not realizing that they had Intersected systems engineering along the way So it was very great to get that kind of feedback and they helped me perfect the course When it was all over I'll highlight some of the students one student actually went on to work in his father's auto foreign auto parts Distribution company and you think well, what would that have to do with systems engineering and He wrote me this long email Articulating all the skills and all the concepts he learned from my course and how he's applying them to his father's business And I was stunned like wow talk about real learning and I think that's what I wanted to see Not that they're all trying to be a systems engineer. They're taking away the concepts and Actually applying them wherever they land one of the students in the front of the picture He went on to be a Rhodes Scholar and went to Delft University in the Netherlands And they have a graduate program in systems engineering. They'll be took it pretty far One of the women in there went to the jet propulsion lab and worked in navigation for years And now she just told me that she got into their prestigious systems engineering training program But it was this class that helped to realize that's what she wanted to do So if we go to the next slide, I'll let you see some of the quotes that the students Gave me at the end of the class I think my favorite one is one of them said it's the glue and I really think that sums it up Everybody can be designing their little widget or their subsystem But unless you have systems engineering to pull it together as an operational system It's not going to work the widget won't mean anything So practicing systems engineering gives you that glue to bring the whole project together Students really appreciated real-world experience that the class brings in that You know, we're just not learning something in theory But something that NASA actually applies and that they can apply it to and the next slide is one of my Original students who was in that group shot and He is still at University of Texas in Austin as a graduate student getting his PhD And what he did after the class UT is very fortunate to have a satellite design lab they designed small satellites Cube sats nano sats It's rather extensive now they've launched off the shuttle and a secondary payloads on Atlas missions and Henry is his name even though his PhD is going to be in a small satellite navigation systems.  I mean they've just totally endorsed Everything on a smaller scale, right? So even though he's doing his research He's also the lead systems engineer and he recruits the young engineers who come in the department And they shadow him and learn systems engineering before they ever get to take my course And I've heard it's very effective that then when they're in the classroom they realize Yeah, we've been doing that with the Cube sats for the last two years And just to get a sense of how a systems engineer and playing in the lab Henry may be the lead systems engineer much like Mike Menzel's the lead for JWST But each of these subsystem Engineers who are working on the thrusters or the cubes at structure They have to do systems engineering as well, right? We have limited number of students So they wear two hats and they're expected for their subsystem They're going to maintain the requirements that and understand how they interface with the other system They are managing their reserves So it's a great learning opportunity for them to play discipline engineer and That's fantastic. Thanks so much Lisa you had mentioned You know kind of the the modularity of your original course and that's definitely something that we wanted to Preserve in the course that we adopted because it's such a great aspect like you mentioned other schools are you? You can have You know anyone not even in a university kind of taking all of it or part of it And using it for whatever purpose as big or small as they want And even the the concepts themselves like teamwork and project life cycle those are things that extend far beyond systems engineering Hopefully that's what we kept in this course But one we have more questions obviously, but one other thing I wanted to mention for everyone tuning in Is that you're probably watching this on Google plus or the course page on YouTube? And so there should be a link on the bottom left hand corner of your screen that says something like join the conversation Something like that. And if you just click on that You should be able to enter a different screen and you could ask questions and I'll be monitoring those questions as we go along and Have Lisa answer as many of those as we can so Back to this conversation So I guess my next question would be then how does your background as an aerospace Engineer play into your current role as the technical assistant to NASA deputy associate administrator Sure, so I have just taken on this new position and it means working In the area or the office of the administrator, so as you can guess it's getting high up there with some bigger challenges across the agency and I'm assigned to work this focused assessment on NASA's technical capabilities so everybody knows we do great things whether it's mission ops or Entry descent and landing of spacecraft. These are all great technical capabilities inherent to NASA But in this budget situation, we need to look at how do we optimize what we do Are there some things that we could do differently? We could do it less people or less assets Or could you commercialize it? There's so much industry now that has taken on much of what NASA traditionally did So are there opportunities to make transitions into the commercial Market and so I am working with a much larger team who's taking on these different technical capabilities and looking at What do we do with them? Here's the state of the art. Here's where we are But we're trying to understand where does NASA need to be in the future and how should these capabilities Crafted so that they can meet our needs so in terms of that big effort That touches every center in the agency My skills in the systems engineering side of things really helps and that I tend to look at the big picture And be more strategic so rather than just picking off one of these capabilities and making a decision I'm trying to get the management to look at how our decisions nested You know, how do you start this capability now? What does that mean later trying to understand our future requirements in those missions? We really want in 10 20 years So what capabilities might apply and so I bring in a more strategic focus Whereas the bigger team is down in the data trying to uncover the data and what NASA does day-to-day I'm trying to pull it back to How does it apply to where we want to be as an agency and also projecting where others like a SpaceX or there'll be other entities out there who do what we do How do we want to change with the times? So it takes a you know my strategic thinking my feel for requirements and meeting requirements and part of what systems engineers do is ask critical questions and I've done that through most of my career So being able to ask the right questions to get to the right information to help us make these bigger decisions That's great. I'm sure there's you know many the students in the course many people tuning in right now I'm sure there's people that think you know In the forums and through emails. I mean so many people have you know are just in love with I'm sure I think what you do is just incredible and would love to be in that position themselves That kind of goes into You know the next thing that we'll talk about over the past week You know, we've gotten a lot of questions about Students are wondering about the education that they should get from a high school level through college. So I'm gonna kind of I'm gonna kind of combine a few questions into one and maybe you can just you know answer as many or as little as you want but so questions about You know, what kind of classes should a high school student take to become like systems engineer, you know What kind of college degree would they get? and also from Like a teacher's perspective You know, what's the best educational strategy to teach these students systems engineering? Okay, well, I appreciate the high school question because a little bit of what I was doing at the University of Texas At the end of my tenure I had the fortune to be involved in a National Science Foundation grant to design Like the ultimate one-year high school engineering course and Myself and faculty from chemical engineering petroleum engineering mechanical We built this class with lots of the systems aspects that were teaching here and did Units related to different disciplines of engineering and it's called engineer your world and now it's Offer offered nationwide to schools Phenomenal class for students in high school Preferably their upper years to really get a feel for engineering and the whole course is designed in a hands-on way So there's no textbook. It's all about doing and learning and getting a feel to work together as teams And you know the teachers were a little reticent to take this on because you know It's not always apparent what the right answer is, but that's what engineering is about You know your design may not work in his does and But you can work it out and maybe together the combined design effort is the right way to go So this high school course has been amazing in trying to teach students the practicalities of engineering and the diversity and the types of projects Well, if your school doesn't have that but you're still interested in being in the engineering path. I highly recommend taking That all the way through calculus if you don't take calculus in high school Most universities like a University of Texas will not let you enter the College of Engineering So you have to have certain level of math. You'll have to take calculus all over again But it's college level and it's hard to jump into that if you didn't take some level of it in high school So that's key and then usually taking physics in high school It's definitely a prerequisite, but it doesn't mean you can't go the engineering path I have a student. I mentor it in Austin and we did not want to take calculus in high school We wanted to have fun this senior year, but now he doesn't decide it to be an engineer and he's at University of Texas Well, it's gonna take like an extra year or at least in summer school So he's got a catch up with the entry level So just some basics and then if your school doesn't have a full-up engineering course in high school Usually schools have some kind of competition like the robotics competition or some kinds of hands-on project And I know through my daughter's middle school that even 3d printing and how to play with that technologies or Coding computers, you know, these schools will have different electives and Great if you can take the opportunity and if you don't like it, then you know that may not be your path Another thing you can do is Find an engineer a practicing engineer that will mentor you And I was part of a high school mentoring program in Austin And I worked with students one-on-one for an entire semester so they could shadow me They could understand. What is it going to be an aerospace engineer really help them Bear it out what the coursework would be like as well as what the career might be like As much as you can learn that in high school the better so that You don't make the wrong turn into college Decide you don't like it. That's great better to do it before you spend all those years tough exams But once you're in college, you know, usually the path to assistance engineer is studying a discipline So mine was aerospace engineering Where you study propulsion Attitude control of spacecraft or orbital mechanics So you're understanding the space system environment that system But you know my colleagues at NASA Johnson Space Center like to remind me Hey Lisa NASA hires a lot more electrical engineers and mechanical engineers than we do aerospace So we're sort of a dying breed You know whatever discipline you are then you will apply yourself in your first Engineering opportunities and it could be like me where right out of school you get some systems engineering opportunities Or you work in your discipline and then you learn to weave your way into Programs for systems engineering and I will note that At least three of our centers Goddard Space Flight Center the jet propulsion lab and the Johnson Space Center have designed Special programs for their mid-career Engineers to turn them into systems engineers, so they are designing specific coursework for them those engineers become interns or Shadow a real systems engineer on a project and learn that way and then they're given a mentor and I've been a mentor for three of the Students in the Johnson Space Center program and so we help them understand You know what this path might mean for them as they get intern opportunities or job opportunities to really Discuss with them which one might better fit their skills and demonstrate Engineering to them They also do a book club and there's a lot of great books that apply to the topics of systems engineering So we do book discussions to really get them to think about these different angles of System that they may not have the opportunity to work in on your day-to-day jobs That's So I mean I kind of changing gears now We got a question from a viewer that's watching right now Angelique she asks a question about the project lifecycle and she asks How do you combine the NASA project lifecycle and development of scientific tools? Is it possible to develop a scientific instrument from scratch while the pre Sorry, well the mission pre-phase a is already done See if I understand the question Like they're designing the instrument After we've started the lifecycle Yeah, that's my understanding of the question. I think so In fact often the way it goes is that the mission level is Being worked in the pre-phase a phase a till we get to a concept review And we know what type of instruments we might want on a mission But they're not designed in the gory detail We know what kind of requirements they may have and you know bit about the form fit and function So we can be designing the larger spacecraft But usually the instruments trail The concept that's being developed and that was true with the James Webb Space Telescope We were so busy Designing the different approaches to the large mirror optics and as you know It's segmented, but we had design ideas where it was all one piece like Hubble and so those early days you are designing What's the big ticket items on this mission and for James Webb? It's the primary and secondary mirrors We knew we wanted infrared Detectors, you know, we knew what kind of science we were after but the actual instruments were not designed till Later in the lifecycle and and part of it is because we also were in some very intense technology development in the early days and so we funded a lot of Like mid infrared detectors. We weren't sure we were going to get a mid infrared instrument We've got one now, but that technology wasn't proving itself out in time So usually what's happened when we're early in the lifecycle? They're pushing on the instrument technologies that might drive to the kind of Specificity in the requirements that the scientists want. That's great. Yeah, so Excuse me. So similar along the same lines of project lifecycle project phases You know we had one question Project phasing is found in the NASA systems engineering handbook, which you've all are very familiar with at this point It seems very strict and care-cut and so the question is how is this in practice does? Really deviate much from the handbook ideal or is everything more fuzzy than as presented in the handbook Sure, so, you know, we write that handbook so others can understand it So it is clear. It's very scripted But as you can guess in reality, you know, every mission is different every team that's executing the missions different And so they may Tailor something that fits their mission better and I do know we Allow tailoring Cut back on this certain area that you have to Commit to or write about or submit a plan to if your mission is under a certain dollar threshold And it may be like 250 million for Mission costs if you're under that and you don't have to have as extensive amounts of documentation risk plans configuration management They're allowing you to do what's right. They don't want the bureaucracy of it to take over and as a small mission You can't afford to Implement it But I will say as you can guess for the much larger missions We are very strict about them following this life cycle and making sure that they are crossing the T's and dotting the I's So when you have a multi-billion dollar mission like James Webb Space Telescope Yes, they are following the life cycle now not everything plays out in time in that linear fashion as you like And in fact again back to the acquisition strategy for James Webb Because we invest so much in the technologies in the mirrors And the actuators and the Sunshade That became a project unto itself and still figuring out where those technologies are going to go And how do they get factored into the design that we got a bit out of phase with some of the milestones and We made decisions about when to bring on the prime contractor Much earlier even though we didn't know all those technologies yet So there are still strategies that play out in how you Manipulate that life cycle at the point being that in the end you're going to complete all those milestones at some point Right, you're gonna get through it. You just may need to make adjustments and be Flexible particularly in the early phases when things really have to come together the technology the requirements the feasibility and then are you getting the amount of cost Allocated to getting that appropriated so that you can Further down the life cycle and curl costs by building the system That's great. So perhaps related to that We mentioned James Webb and that was a project that obviously Made it through to development and but even that you know was under thread of being shut down and so another question that we had was How many ideas Don't make it to real projects Are there any common reasons why these ideas are not selected? Sure So there's two ways to look at that question And I'll pick on James Webb Space Telescope. So when we were doing our mission concept We had the God or NASA internal concept and we called it a yard stick Measure anybody else's design against ours. And of course we thought ours was the best, right? But meanwhile we had two different contractors Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin being funded to do study of concepts to meet our science requirements and Those two look totally different from each other much less different from ours So that early phase pre phase a when you're running these study contracts, you're looking at your own baseline yard stick You're realizing wow the trade space is pretty big and this is where we can start cherry picking Hey, I really like his sunshade idea and you know, I think our You know deployable apertures a better approach So it gives you an opportunity to look at the different designs and hopefully You know when you get to writing a request for proposals Because one of those contractors actually wins it in the end you have been able to glean the best of So you're driving a much better design But you could claim that the losers you have the other proposals that didn't win Yeah, their design goes by the wayside because we're not going to build another one of these Another aspect of my career is I used to review proposals for certain missions that NASA puts out an announcement of opportunity and principal investigators come in and propose their idea and complete end-to-end design and We review these proposals and these are like the Pluto mission that's headed out to Pluto That was what I reviewed the mercury mission at Mercury now was one of those it's mostly these planetary missions and not all of them are going to win But boy we get great ideas the problem is NASA only has so much money and we definitely pick one and at most we pick two and Whether those principal investigators wait for the next opportunity and then they re-propose Or they just give up so there are quite a few opportunities where you know not everyone's ideas are going to get selected to go to flight But then the other aspect which many of us like myself and Jeff We've worked on human space flight Future missions, so I've mentioned we worked you know missions to the moon and Mars with astronauts And as you know, we've never gotten there so often We spend a lot of energy Designing a perfect mission you will go through some of that in the trade studies module And you think we know it all we understand it and What it takes is the political will to commit to doing this and to commit the resources We need because it takes decades to plan develop and finally execute the mission So in that case those get those die on the vine because we lose the political will So so so say there's a project that's kind of you know borderline of making it through To you know give me a thumbs up and starting to be developed. Is there any projects like that? Are there any process? evaluate the investment in developing technology or tools so that you know the cost might be offset by future use even if this initial intended purpose doesn't Actually come to fruition or even projects that you do decide to go forward with Is it ever factored in like something that we're going to make right now for this project is very beneficial And we should definitely invest money in it because it'll help us with projects later on down the road Yeah, I think in terms of say the scientist interests They definitely on the side are always Doing research in better detectors better methods of acquiring data Manipulating the data that can be applied to future missions whether it's astrophysics or earth science Like constant improvement on how we acquire data and use the data But I think what you might be getting at is you know, did we develop something and then you know the mission It's canceled Doesn't keep going down the life cycle. What do we do with that investment? And I do know one of a mission I worked here. It was a large X-ray astronomy mission I got her and it was very complicated and you know, it's hard to have Two big astrophysics flagship missions going at the same time And they were trying to get started when James Webb space telescope got started and they put a lot of money into the X-ray optics Again, that's you invest in your technology. That's the long lead item to make this mission feasible and they did and You know ten years later. They're still not a real mission Well, now we hear that the European Space Agency really wants to do a similar mission and they got the funding So NASA's decided okay We won't be the primary, but hey, we did all this technology work on these X-ray detectors and there's Why don't we provide that part? So what you see is you know more international collaboration right now because we don't have the level of funding To support all these great missions, but we can do the upfront tech development and research and tinkering and Then apply it to someone else's concept That's great. I think that answered. Well, I guess what I was trying to get at So another question that kind of gets back to You personally that we got in was just you know, we heard You know dr. Mather and Mike Menzel have you know kind of guest spots throughout the course about Their work with James Webb and their background and their you know favorite projects So we have a question about what was a favorite project that you've worked on Most challenging one that you've ever had. Oh, what's the most challenging project? I've had yeah favorite or challenging project well That's what happens when you have a big career with lots of little efforts But I will say it wasn't a flight mission. It was a strategic planning effort so In late 99 the administrator asked myself and Jim Garvin who I think people have seen in our Videos he's our scientists here at Goddard's base flight center We were brought from Goddard to headquarters to lead a Strategic planning team to prepare for the next presidential election So the election would be in 2000 and at that time it could have gone either way Al Gore or George Bush and The agency was in a good place Space station was launching and we really wanted to Deliver a strategy of where we should go next with human space flight And how could it integrate with the science missions that we do and so I was granted a team of about 50 engineers from around the agency and Jim and I led this virtual team through all kinds of strategic planning and It was just fascinating a to meet so many subject matter experts from across the agency Trying to get all the different perspectives of Where do we think we can go what's feasible to sell to the next president and We were doing research at the same time and understanding the state-of-the-art on technology and how can this get integrated into some stepping stone approach for a future of missions that were doable in a presidential perspective So I was fortunate to develop the storyboard and the presentation We briefed the transition team when President Bush was elected and we briefed the new administrator that he Hired for NASA and then it ultimately led to President Bush Making the speech at NASA headquarters and so Jim and I were behind the scenes on that entire effort I guess I found that you know very satisfying very challenging because it's at such a high level And you put in all this effort and you never know if you're actually going to get to the president, but we did and It was probably a high highlight of my career That's great Well, I mean, yeah, I think that you know we've been That seemed like it went by really fast, but we've actually been here for nearly an hour So it's probably all the time that we have So I mean I I think this was great. Thank you so much Lisa We're really very grateful that you're able to lend your time for this And we're already through the course, which is that you know again time is going by really quickly Next week we have scope and concept of operations, which Is probably my personal favorite. I you know, obviously spent a lot of time with the material Working with Jeff and Lisa and the entire crew at NASA and it's what I found most interesting myself So I don't know if you had any clothes, Lisa Well, I appreciate all of you taking the course. We love to get your feedback It really helps with whether we crafted the right course for a new Just to let you know there's lots more modules So you're just seeing the tip of the iceberg, but hopefully you're enjoying what you're learning at this time Yeah, that's great. Like like Lisa said It's a small sampling of what she had put together for UT Austin And so I think you'll have that link. You got it in the weekly email. So definitely check out her course and get much bigger picture Otherwise, thank you everyone for tuning in and we'll see you next week


Hey everybody, this is Brian and this is the 30 second Flutter tutorial today. We're gonna be doing a little bit different I know we've kind of gone through checkbox radios and switch which all follow almost the exact same design pattern We literally could have just changed one word Checkbox radio switch and it would have been the same darn thing. So today. We're gonna do something a little different We're gonna cover slider, which is actually set up a little bit differently and we're gonna cover. Where is it? Gonna take me a minute to find it here Of course now I can't find it's the Linear progress indicator. Did I pass it already? There it is right here the linear progress indicator basically a progress bar. So we're gonna cover both of those today All right, so let's just jump right on in here I'm going to import the material package for Dart. We need this for our material design widgets I'm gonna set up our basic code pattern here. I'm gonna have our main function We're gonna extend a stateful widget and we're gonna extend the state of that stateful widget and in here We're gonna say run app. This is what actually starts the application up I'm gonna make a new material app and the home parameter is going to be a new my app So we're just gonna make an instance of our class here All right. So now that we have that I'm gonna actually create our state here and in our state You guessed it We have to do our build function All right, so I've had a few questions about why this is the way this is So we'll kind of break it down a little bit. We need our import obviously for the material design package these widgets that we're working with This is all material design The main obviously is where our starting point is which we call run app Then we're creating a new material app which actually wraps in a lot of the material design and the things that we need From there, we need a stateful widget because we're going to track state when we quote-unquote track state We're just tracking that something changed and we want to see those changes now The difference between a stateful widget and state is minute but major and I know that's a complete contradiction Stateful widget means that Something in the widget will change State is the thing that actually changed inside of the stateful widget So while the stateful widget itself is not changing The state is changing The difference between a stateless widget and a stateful widget is the stateless widget does not care about change whatsoever Where the stateful widget what we're working with wants to track those changes Which is why we have to call create state because we want to say hey We have a state. We're going to create it and monitor it Whenever the build is called within our state the entire screen is going to refresh or I should say the parts of the screen That really need to refresh All of this is kind of held. I want to say like in memory sort of And only the things that change are really tracked, but then everything's re-rendered to the screen So that's kind of an answer to that So in our build we're going to return a new scaffold member scaffold is just kind of Well, it's like a scaffold. It's you know You ever seen those building scaffolds where they you know either build a building or they're you know cleaning windows There's something they have to build this structure so people can walk around. That's really what a scaffold is All right, so the app bar is just our top blue bar here We're set the title parameter to a new text All right, and then the body Not even there There we go. So the body is going to be a new container. I'm still kind of out it. I've Haven't done tutorials in a while. I'm trying to get back into the swing of it because I'm trying to get caught up Really I've got a couple personal projects That is not what I wanted 32.0 because why not and for the child we're gonna do a new Column and then we have an array of widgets for the children. All right, so In here, this is where the magic is going to happen We've gotten our array of widgets here and we're gonna say Slider value is and we're just gonna say zero for now. We need to go up here and actually create our state Notice this is a double not an int and then we have our arm changed here Which is going to be when the slider actually moves around we haven't added the slider yet So this takes a bit of imagination Break that down into our function and then we've got our set state. We're going to just say value Equals the value so we're updating our state All right now. Let's actually make this work So there's a slider and you notice how the default ones are value and on change So it's very very similar to what we've seen before And we're gonna break this down. So it's a little easier to work with. All right, so Slider also takes some other properties. We want a minimum value of 0.0. Remember, it's got to be a double and a max and we're gonna say 100.0, so let's Put that off to the side for a second here and put the value in there So we're gonna say slider value is and then whatever there are value in state is and we're just gonna run this out the device So once this run, we'll be able to move the slider around and actually see in real time that text widget will change with the slider value What we're gonna do next after this whole thing is actually working is we're gonna put the linear progress bar under it Typically a linear progress bar goes right under this app bar But I wanted to stand out and you can actually grab this and you can see how it kind of changes now You notice because it's a double it's got this 52 dot blah all this behind it So we're gonna modify this a little bit. We're gonna say value round Take care of that hot reload should switch it. Yep, sure enough hot reload took it to effect So now we've got a nice Min and max and everything in between So to add to the goodness here, we're gonna put our linear progress bar down here And we're gonna tie that into the same value so we can kind of see what's going on There's our linear progress indicator. Sorry if I call that a progress bar I'm very used to doing that and we're gonna say the value We're just gonna tie it into the value that we're using But we're gonna multiply that by 0.01 that way we get an actual Positive number here nice and smooth Let's actually say and let's just grab this Not sure if we can even do this, but we're gonna try it This may be a spectacular disaster, but I'm pretty sure we can do that. Alright, so there is our in all of its glory So really what the progress indicator or progress bar if you're from other languages and frameworks Just shows a progress so the user can see so we would say we're at 0% all the way up to a hundred now the progress indicator Notice 100% is actually a 1.0 Anything less than one means it's not there. So this is 56 or 0.558 blah, blah, blah, blah So just be mindful when working with the progress indicator that you have to give it that You can't say it's at 50% you have to say 0.5 Pretty simple pretty easy to learn Hope you guys found this educational and entertaining. I just like doing this It's kind of fun But if you if you did find this educational entertaining be sure to visit my website voidrops.com for the source code for this and all The tutorials they're all out on github if you notice any mistakes definitely contribute It helps out quite a bit and it is getting to that time of year where I need to pay for my web hosting this site and all The tutorials are 100% funded by your donations That's why there's zero ads on these videos and I'm trying to keep ads off of them because I think ads on YouTube really suck So if you've got a few extra bucks feel free to throw it my way and I will help pay the bills Thank you for watching


Welcome to our lecture on probability. It's really very difficult to define probability. The best way to see it is you see how often this event will occur in the long run. For example, to keep tossing a coin over and over again, you'll note that 50% of the time you'll get ahead. So we say the probability of the head is 0.5. So think of it that way, but really there's no good definition of probability. Now the difference between probability and statistics. In probability, the population is known. You know what the mu is going to be. We talked about this. U is NP. You toss a coin 100 times. You're supposed to get 50 heads. In statistics, you don't know the population parameters. So you've got to make an inference. You take a sample and from the sample, you can make an inference to kind of estimate the population parameter. The definition of the probability of an event that we just saw is an objective probability. It's the classical mathematical definition of the probability of an event as the long run frequency of occurrence of a particular event. On the other hand, a subjective probability is the kind of probability we might use in ordinary conversations that's not based on mathematics. And it measures the strengths of our personal beliefs. For example, if someone says, as a personal opinion, the probability that this new product will succeed is 95%. That's the strength of a personal belief. Or even better, maybe. The probability that my commute will not exceed one hour tomorrow morning is 90%. And I haven't exactly computed that. So it measures the strength of my personal belief. That which is observed as the result of a stochastic or probabilistic process is a random variable. A random variable takes on values. Each of these values has a probability. Each is related to an event. The event is the value that the random variable takes on. So for example, when we talk of die, that's a process. It's a probabilistic process.  We could get a two. We could get a three. There are six possibilities.  So each one of those has a probability of one sixth. A simple probability, as we'll see soon, that's also called a marginal probability, that's the probability of an event. We're looking at one event, and we're looking at the probability that that event will occur. A joint probability is the probability of two events occurring together in a time or space. A conditional probability is the probability of an event where we have some information about some other event having occurred. So if we know that B is true and we're asking about the probability of A, that's a conditional probability. It's the probability of A given that we know B, that B has occurred. Here are some basic rules about probability. The probability of an event will never be less than zero. It will never be negative. It will never be greater than one. It can't be by the definition of a probability. A probability is exactly like a proportion, which also can't be negative and can't be greater than the total than one. So if you tell me that the probability that you will pass this course is 150%, you're starting at a disadvantage here right away. Rule two, the sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes of a particular process must equal one. So the probability of A and the probability of everything that's not A together, that's got to be equal to one. The probability of getting a one on the face of a guy or a two or a three or a four or a five or a six, those are all possible values. You can't get anything else. You'll add those up. That has to be 100% or a one. If the sum of all your probabilities is less than one, what does that mean? It means you're missing something. You're probably missing an event you forgot about or an outcome. If it's more than one, that's a little bit more complicated and it probably means that the events you're looking at that there's some overlap. That maybe you're looking at the probability of getting an odd number and then the probability of a one at the same time. Well, there's overlap there. Before we get to the rule of addition, let me define something called mutually exclusive. Mutually exclusive has the word exclude in it. It means two events that can't occur together. Like heads and heads or tails. You can't have a head-tail. Male or female. It's one or the other. You can't have both. It's simultaneously. All right. When two events are mutually exclusive, that's called an A and D. They're mutually exclusive. The probability of A or B, notice it's two different ways of showing it. Some books have that U symbol. Okay. I'll probably use it with or. Probability A or B is the probability of A plus the probability of B if A and B are mutually exclusive. But in general, the probability of A or B is the probability of A plus the probability of B minus probability of A and B. Remember that's a joint probability. Okay. But again, by definition, the joint probability, probability of A and B is zero if A and B are mutually exclusive. These are things that can't happen together. I'm sure things can happen together. And you have to know whether they're mutually exclusive or not. Now, we know that the probability of getting a head or a tail is the probability of a head plus the probability of a tail. And you have to worry about that joint probability of a head-tail. Because it's zero. It doesn't exist. That's why the probability of getting a head or a tail is a half probability of a head plus the probability of a tail which is a half and that equals to one. This Venn diagram here is a very simple way of seeing how A and B look when they're mutually exclusive. See the top box? It's the A and the B and they're not touching each other because they're mutually exclusive. Notice in the bottom box, you show A and B that kind of overlapping because they're now mutually exclusive. Notice you have an A and there's an intersection. That's an A and B there where they both intersect. So that's called the probability of A and B. That's the intersection of A and B. And the Venn diagram makes you see it very clearly. And that means they're not mutually exclusive. So the Venn diagrams, you can also see the probability of A prime which means not A. You mean that not as prime but it's not A is one minus the probability of A. And the probability of not A or not B is one minus the probability of A and B. These examples will make it clear. So the other college, we allowed double majors. You can double major. Two majors. So we know 10% of the students are majoring in accounting. That's A. 15% of the students are majoring in business. D. 3% of the double majors. A and B. Okay? So that's the probability of being an accounting or a business major. Here's a little hint. They're not mutually exclusive because we just said it, you can be a double major. A and B. That means there's an intersection. So the answer for that is the probability of A or B is 0.10 plus 0.15. Notice we have to subtract the 0.03. That works out to 0.22. If you didn't subtract that 0.03, you'd be double counting the accounting and business majors because they show up in both lists. Think of it as two lists. The accounting list shows them. The business list shows me 3%. You don't account for 3% two times and that's why we subtract it out. So this is a very good illustration of the law of addition. The rules of multiplication are used to compute joint probabilities, which we know from the previous slide. This is the probability that event A and event B occur together, that they both occur. Like the example we just saw, the probability that someone is both an accounting major and a business major, that's a joint probability. Well, first let's look at a very specific case and we'll go to the general case. In the specific case, if the two events we're talking about are independent of each other, in other words, that knowing something about one having occurred doesn't change the probability that the other one occurs, then we just multiply the probabilities. And for example, if we're talking a coin and let's say it's a fair coin, you toss it once and you know that a head occurred. What's the probability that you'll get a head on the second toss? Well, it was 50% on the first toss, it's still 50% on the second toss, it's still one out of two, because each toss is independent of what happened before. So with independent events, we just multiply the probabilities of the events. Here's some examples to help you understand what independence is. Suppose I take our student at random from our college population and I tell you that student is male. What's the probability that that student has blue eyes? Well, that would be just the same as the probability that a student has blue eyes without knowing whether the student is male or female.  On the other hand, if I take a student at random and I say that that student is female, now what's the probability that the student is over six feet tall? Well, knowing that the student is female, that should make a difference. And it would change the probability from the simple probability of just any student being over six feet tall. And you can find all kinds of other examples that are similar that help you make the case. Here's the general formula for multiplication. If we don't know that events a and b are independent, or if we know for sure they're not independent, then we can compute the joint probability of a and b by taking the probability of a given b multiplied by the probability of b. You're at least multiplied by the event after the given. We could do it the other way around, too, where you get the probability of b given a and multiplied by the probability of a. That will also give us the joint probability of a and b. It all depends on what you have and what you're trying to compute. And, of course, we know the probability of a given b is a conditional probability. If the two events are independent, as we just saw, then the probability of a given b is just the same as the probability of a. And so the general formula for multiplication, in the case of independent events, will turn into the probability of a times the probability of b, which is exactly what we had before, for independent events. So the two formulas for multiplication are not different at all. They're exactly the same. It all depends on whether the events we're looking at are independent or not. Sometimes we're going to want to use these formulas in order to prove that the events are independent or not independent, and we can. We have the probabilities that say the conditional probability of a given b, and we have the simple probability, the probability of a, and they're not equal to each other, then we can say these events are not independent. Because if they are independent, knowing something about b would not change the probability that a occurs. And, similarly, we can use the multiplication rule to determine if two events are independent. If the probability of a times the probability of b is exactly equal to the joint probability of a and b, that's proof enough that events a and b are independent of each other. And finally, we have the rule for conditional probability for how we compute conditional probability. All we do is we're just turning around the previous rule from 4, number 4b, but we actually have it on the same slide. If the probability of a and b is equal to the probability of a given b times the probability of b, then if we need to compute the probability of a given b and we have the other terms, that's exactly equal to the joint probability of a and b divided by the probability for the event after the given or divided by the probability of b. We're not going to cover base theorem in this course. It's an optional topic, so we're not going to worry about it for now. Here we have a simple example to start. We're looking at a readership of two different newspapers, the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. And in this particular village, the probability that an individual reads the New York Times is 0.25 because 25% of the population does. The probability that an individual reads the Wall Street Journal is 0.20. The probability that an individual reads both the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal is 0.05 or 5%. So the question is, what's the probability of an individual being either a New York Times reader or a Wall Street Journal reader? So that's the rule of addition that we're going to be using. The probability of being a New York Times reader or a Wall Street Journal reader is equal to the probability of reading the Times 0.25 plus the probability of reading the Journal 0.20 minus the probability of reading both of them because we don't want to count these people twice. And that's 0.05. So 0.25 plus 0.20 minus 0.05 is equal to 0.40, so 40% of the population reads something. Here you see the same thing laid out in a Venn diagram and you can see the joint probability in the middle and actually what you see here is the same data you saw before but instead of being laid out looking like probabilities or percentages based on the basis of 100. So suppose we have 100 people selected at random from this village, five of them would read both the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, 40 of them would read at least one, would read one of them or anything, and then there are 60 people out of 100 that don't read either one. Sometimes your probability problems that you do for homework will ask you for various different types of probabilities and here you have an example of some of the different types of questions that you could be asked. Another way to look at problems like this where you have a set of probabilities and then you ask a lot of questions about them is to put them into a table of joint probabilities. We'll see more of this later on. So we're not going to work with this now. It's just to show you that this is an alternate way. In some problems it's actually a much better way of solving the problem. It's very important to understand the difference between independence and mutually exclusive events. Don't confuse them. A lot of students tend to do that. Mutually exclusive simply means that the probability of A and B is zero. They can't occur together through a physical thing. You can't have a head and tail at the same time. You can't pass and fail of course at the same time. Those are mutually exclusive. So simply put, it's just that probably the A and B is zero. Independence means that we're all together different. It has to be the effect of let's take B on A. Does knowing B have any effect on A? If knowing B has an effect on A, then we could say they're not independent. If knowing B has no effect on A, then they're independent. So independence is more like the concept of unrelated, uncorrelated. So the example we have here is waist size and gender. Are they independent of each other?  Does that give you a hint as to whether that person's male or female? Well, we can figure that out because we know the problem of having a 24-inch waist, given that you're female, is not the same as the problem of having 24-inch waist in general or probably 24-inch waist given that you're male. So we do probably 24-inch waist in general combining males and females. But the minute I know that somebody has a 24-inch waist, I'm quite certain that they're highly likely to be female or a few men have 24-inch waist. So that's another way of seeing this idea of relationship and independence. So again, if the problem of A given B is the problem of A, then A and B are independent. If the problem of A given B is not A, not the problem of A, then there's some kind of relationship here. They're not independent. Researchers are always interested in whether two events are independent or not. For example, is there a relationship between lung cancer and smoking or are they independent of each other? Well, we know the answer to that one.  All right? Is there a relationship between occupation, how long you live, so-called longevity, or are they independent? Well, studies show that occupation does affect your lifespan. Librarians, I think, have the highest lifespan of them all. Cold miners and drug dealers have the shortest lifespans. So you see there is some kind of relationship. And again, insurance companies will use that information when they fill your life insurance. They look at your occupation, too. Is there a relationship in salary and how slender you are? Well, studies are showing that women are very slender, get much more money. Unfortunately, I mean, there's one of these kinds of discrimination, but there have been studies done on this. What about how many dates you get and your hair color? Well, believe it or not, somebody studied that. I think on the sites like e-harming and others, they found that women who had blonde hair had more dates on these sites than women who had other color hair. So you see, this is the kind of thing researchers want to know. You're not going to win the Nobel Prize for finding out what doesn't cure cancer.  We're always looking for relationships. So these tests for independence, which we're going to learn soon, are very valuable to statisticians. Well, in this example, we're looking at a contingency table. We're looking at smokers, non-smokers, and diet of cancer or not. We're looking at a sample of 1,000 people. Those are frequencies of the table. And the way you read that is in the sample of 1,000, 100 people with smokers who died of cancer.  You get that from the marginal total. 300 smokers do not die of cancer.  Incidentally, those totals on the side that we call the marginal or simple probabilities are useful.  Right? All the way on the right. 850 did not have cancer. We have 400 smokers in the sample, 600 non-smokers, and that's how we have 1,000 people. If you divide through by 1,000, then you can get a joint probability table. But you see the joint probabilities in the bottom. You take 100 divided by 1,000 at 0.10. That's the probability of C and S. If you want the probability of not C and S, 300 over 1,000, that's 0.30. If you divide 50 by 1,000 at 0.05, it's the probability of C and not S. And if you want the probability of not C and not S, that's the 550 over 1,000, that's 0.55. That gives you the joint probabilities. If you take those marginal totals and divide them by 1,000, the probability of C, 150 over 1,000, is 0.15. The probability of not C is 0.85. That's 850 over 1,000. Now look at the column totals. There's 400 smokers divided by 1,000. The probability of being a smoker is 40%, 0.40. The probability of being an non-smoker is 0.60. The reason that you're looking at this table would want to answer the question, are smoking and cancer independent or not? Well, the way to... some ways to answer it is one way to do it. We look at the probability of C, and we see the sequence of the probability of C given S. And if you want to go and look at it, what is the probability of C given not S? Well, the probability of C given S is cancer given at your smoker. That's the probability of being a cancer and smoker over probability of smoker, or 0.10 over 0.40, of 25%.  Look at the probability of C given not S. That's the probability of C and not being a smoker, and not S, over the probability of not S. That works out to 0.05 over 0.60. That works out to 0.083, 8.3%. If you're a non-smoker, there's an 8.3% chance of dying of cancer. The probability of cancer, the simple probability of that's... it's kind of an average. It averages out to a deleted average, actually. Remember, there were more non-smokers than smokers, so it's not a simple average. That's 0.15. But looking at all three probability... You just got to look at two of them, but looking at all three, you can see what's going on.   So research is looking at these numbers will simply state that smoking and cancer are not independent. There is actually a relationship between the two. And this is how you win the Nobel Prize in finding relationships. This one, of course, you're not going to win the Nobel Prize, I think everybody knows this one. Here's another way you can actually determine that cancer and smoking are not independent. If cancer is smoking independent, then the probability of C and S is equal to the probability of C times the probability of S. Remember, that was the formula for independent events. We did with A and B. The probability of A and B is the probability of A times the probability of B if they're independent. Well, the probability of C and S, you know, is 0.10. Is that equal to the probability of C of 0.15 times the probability of S of 0.40? Well, 0.10 is not equal to 0.06 on this planet. So we conclude that cancer is smoking and not independent. And even if you want to do this properly, it's always useful to set up a joint probability, which we'll show you in the next two slides. Okay, here we see the joint probability of the same data we had before. Remember, you divide through by 1,000, and those frequencies in the four cells, remember the cancer and smoking cell, they're four cells, divide through by 1,000, you get a joint probability table, and the marginal total to divide through by 1,000, too. And notice you've got everything there. You read it, that's an AND always. The probability of smoker and cancer is 0.10. Cancer and non-smoker is 0.05. Smoker and up-cancer, 0.30. And the non-smoker without cancer is 0.55. And all these probabilities add up to 1, you see that? It's very useful to set up this joint probability table because you can see everything you want. And again, the marginal probabilities are the row and column totals. Okay, so look at the same problem set up with a joint probability table. It's a lot easier to solve. Well, again, here we have the joint probability set up nice and neat. Everything is here. And notice you get the joint probabilities in the center of the table, the marginal probabilities on the margins, and a conditional probability is computed simply by dividing the joint probability by marginal probability. So the probability of C given S is the probability of C and S, that's a 0.10, divided by the column total, the marginal probability is 0.40 or 0.25. Here's another example with gender and beer drinking. Okay, we have beer drinker for B. B-prime means not a beer drinker. We have M and F for male and female. And we see the frequencies here, 450, 450, 350. We turn into a joint probability table by dividing through by 2,000, the 2,000 in the sample. And you see all the joint probabilities given, right? For example, the probability of a male who drinks beer, notice B and M is the same as M and B. A man who drinks beer would be, that probability would be 0.225. A female who drinks beer, that's 0.175. A man who doesn't drink beer, that's 0.225 also. And a female who doesn't drink beer is 0.375. And we have these marginals there. Marginal probabilities. So actually, what's the probability of a male in this town? You say 30%. That's the probability of B. That includes man and women together.  Well, in this town, 900 out of 2,000 or 0.35 are males. So you see, again, in the joint probability table, everything you need to know is right there. Well, here's the conditional probabilities. So during that individual or male is male, what's the probability that person is a beer drinker? It's given M. And that's the probability of B and M over the probability of M. That works out to 0.225 over 0.45 or 50%. Once I know you're a male, 50% chance in this town that you drink beer.  What's the probability of a beer drinker? Well, that's the probability of B given F. That's the probability of B and F over the probability of F. Again, we take the joint over the marginal. So in this case, the B given F is 0.175. That's beer and female. Over probably being female in this town, which is 0.55. And that works out to 0.318. Are beer drinking and gender independent? We know the probability of beer drinking is 0.30. It's a weighted average, again, at those above numbers.  If you're a female, it's a 0.318, about a little less than, let's take it exact, 31.8% chance that you drink beer. Clearly, there's some kind of relationship, and we know men are more likely to drink beer than women. Again, the 0.40 is a weighted average of the two. But again, the research you're looking at this data would say beer drinking and sex are not independent. There's some kind of pattern. And once I know that you're a man, I know you're more likely to drink beer. Okay? Here's how we're looking at marketing examples. Dove soap. Why do you make use of soap? And we want to know if there's a relationship between gender, male-female, and use of dove soap. So we have this contingency table here. Notice there's a sample of 1,000 people in some town. And here's what we found. Male and people, men who use dove soap, males who use dove soap, there are 80 out of 1,000. Females who use dove soap is 120. Men who didn't use dove soap, 320. And females who didn't use dove soap, 480. All the joint probabilities are on the bottom there. So the probability of DNM, which by the way is the same as M&D, is 8%. The probability of DNF is 12%. The probability of the not DNF is 0.48. And we have a marginal total. So the 20% chance of using dove soap, 80% don't use dove soap. Probably not D. Probably the M is 40%. 40% chance you're a male in this sample. There's 40% males. And probably the female is 60%. So we have all the important probabilities computed for you. Well, the marketing research might want to know whether gender and use of dove soap are independent or not. Well, here's what you find out. The probability in the dove user is 20% in this town. The probability given M, that's dove user given at your male, that's 0.08 over 0.40, which is also 20%. The probability given F, remember that's DNF over the probability of F, that's 0.12 over the 0.16, that's also 20%. Guess what? They're independent. Doesn't matter. Knowing the gender of the person doesn't affect their use of dove or not. We know for sure that it's 20% whether you're male or female. So that's independent. You can do it a different way. We know that the probability of M and D, the joint probability is 8%. Is that equal to the probability of M times the probability of D? Well, 0.08 is equal to 0.40 times 0.20. So yes, the two events M and D are independent of each other.


Aloha. I'm Jay Fidel, CEO of ThinkTech Hawaii. For the first time, ThinkTech is participating in an online web-based fundraising campaign to raise $40,000. Give thanks to ThinkTech. That's the name of the campaign. It will run only during the month of November, and you can help. Please donate what you can so that ThinkTech can continue to raise public awareness and promote civic engagement through free programming like mine. I've already made my donation, and I look forward to yours. Please send in your tax-deductible contribution by going to this website, www.thinksforthinktech.causevox.com. On behalf of the community enriched by ThinkTech Hawaii's 30-plus weekly shows, thank you. Mahalo. Mahalo for your generosity. I'm Jay Fidel. Aloha.


It's a very, very important day in the history of the club, but also a very sad day for us. I've today been advised by Tony Popovich of his intent to resign, effective immediately to pursue an overseas professional opportunity. Tony will always be recognised and respected as a great part of this club's history. I've worked closely with Tony from day one since Inception. We've come a long way together along with a lot of good people. We've always known he's had a great future ahead of him in coaching, just like he did as a player. And we're sure that he'll be looking at his time at the Western Sydney Wanderers with fondness and pride. And we'll be watching from afar with pride ourselves. And members can be assured that we'll be taking our time now to go through the diligence required to find the right candidates for a club that this... of the stature that this club has to find the right person for the right job and right now. We've been innovative for the position in a number of hours already. It just goes to show the stature the Western Sydney Wanderers has had was come to in the last five years. We've no short of credit going to Tony Popovich himself. While the timing's not ideal, the people of Western Sydney need to know that this is a robust organisation from the board of directors down and we'll do everything to ensure that this season will be a success. We have no doubt it will be. I'd like to try a way over to Tony for a few words. Today's a very difficult day to hold this press conference. To announce a departure from Western Sydney Wanderers as head coach. It's to pursue an opportunity overseas. That's basically what it is and it's in Europe. I've always had the ambition to coach overseas. I've been fortunate enough as a club knows to have had opportunities in Asia but it's Europe where I've always wanted to go. The club's well aware of that. The timing certainly is not great. You don't plan these things but it's come up very recently and it's an opportunity to get my foot in the door into Europe for a big competition and that's where I'd like to take my next challenge. It's been amazing five years. It's hard to reflect right now because of everything that's happened in particular since this morning. But starting the club from zero, leaving Crystal Palace to pursue this opportunity to see whether club is now after five years with the new stadium to come, training ground, amazing fans which need a lot of credit. A CEO that I've started with from day one to see how well this club is run. A board and chairman, Paul Lederer who's been amazing support even up to this morning when we had that difficult conversation. I leave a lot of special memories, some friends that I've made, an amazing football staff that has always supported me with the direction that we wanted to go with the football club. Players, I'd love to thank all the players from day one. Not just the players that are here now but some amazing people, amazing players have played here at Wanderers and the group of players that we've assembled now I'm sure whoever comes in will have a fantastic foundation to be able to build and bring his own ideas continuing to make Wanderers successful. So I thank you all.


Kremlin may exploit false flag operations in Transnistria to undermine Ukrainian grain exports. The Kremlin may try to exploit false flag operations in Transnistria to undermine Ukrainian grain exports along the western Black Sea coast to claim that Russia must protect ethnic Russians and Russian speakers and to stir up instability in Moldova. The Institute for the Study of War said this. The institute analysts recall that on the 10th of January, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that it had summoned the ambassador of Moldova to express disapproval of Moldova's unfriendly actions, which included cases of discrimination against Russian citizens entering Moldova and politically motivated persecution of Russian and Russian language media. The Russian Foreign Ministry said menacingly that if such actions continue, the Russian side reserves the right to take additional retaliatory measures. At the same time, it is recalled that Russia in particular used such excuses when it carried out a military intervention in favour of separatist Transnistria in 1992. The ISW says the Kremlin probably tried to create information conditions for a possible false flag operation in Transnistria in April 2022 and February 2023 but failed partly for economic reasons. Experts emphasise that the Kremlin may consider the operation under a false flag in Transnistria as an alternative way to keep countries from participating in the Ukrainian grain corridor despite the weakening of the Russian presence in the western part of the Black Sea.


Hello, is this working? Yes. Hello, Johnny Cotton from Reuters.  How representative is this in your view? So if you ask my colleagues, they will tell you I've been talking about this for something like seven or eight years saying how important it is. When we started our database only had about 10,000 passports and a few hundred consultations per year. Our database has grown over 40 million documents. We've had over 800 million consultations and 60,000 plus hits. I gave a speech last November, I believe, where I said we estimate that four out of every ten passengers, I'm looking at my experts, four out of every ten passengers on international flights could be in possession of passports reported lost or stolen. So I think it's far too common. What's even more shocking is the number of times people cross borders without having their passports screened against their pulse database. And those of us who travel at all, we know we as good travelers, we empty our pockets, we empty our bags, we expose our laptops, our iPads, et cetera, and we show our passports. And we expect when we're showing our passports that they're being screened against databases where you might find stolen passports. And unfortunately, in far too many cases, it's not happening. And that's why we believe this tragedy of MH370 is a great opportunity for more countries to console and impulse databases and for the world to recognize that countries need help in the form of private sector partnerships that we hope to continue to launch using what we call is, what we call is eye-check it.


Weird things you can check out from a library that have nothing to do with books. A lot of libraries carry super useful items that you can borrow just like you do with a book. At this particular one, you can check out ukulele, laptops, and wi-fi hotspots. Some other items you can check out from libraries include cake bands, sewing machines, jumper cables, power tools, seeds and gardening tools, board games and toys, picnic blankets, umbrellas, and even sound machines. Just make sure to check what your local branch offers because each location varies.