Good afternoon and thank you very much for joining today's civil society webinar focused on the impact of your of the COVID-19 on the euro area economy I'm delighted to have here with us Frank Smith today Franks is the director general economics here at the ECB and he'll be walking us through the latest macroeconomic projections My name is Marie Therese-Bitterlich and I work in the civil society team in communications here at the ECB And I'll be moderating this event today The structure of this event is the same as previous events Apart from the slight difference that as you can see we're hosting it entirely remotely this time We'll start with a half an hour presentation by Frank and then we'll open the floor for your questions for the remaining half an hour of this event We'd like to encourage you to make good use of the q&a session as we'd like to keep it as interactive as possible And very much look forward to hearing your questions and comments Regarding the technical practicalities. I'm sure that by now we're all familiar with how virtual events work Nonetheless, we will show an instruction slide after Frank's presentation That just shows us how you might be able to take the floor in the q&a session If you have any questions in the meantime or are experiencing any technical problems, please feel free to reach out to us using the chat function Just remember that when you are using the chat function to please address it to all panelists This is very important for us to be able to see your question and get back to you as soon as possible As stated in the invitation of this webinar, we will be recording this And uploading it onto the ECB's website afterwards Without any further ado, I will now hand over the floor to frank for the presentation Frank the floor is yours Thank you very much. Marie-Thérèse And let me also warmly welcome all of you to this second seminar reviewing the impact of the pandemic on the euro area economy And the inflation outlook and the presentation as Marie-Thérèse said was will be based on our latest macroeconomic projections Which were published last week if you want to have more details you can always look at our website But there's also an article Going through some of the narrative behind the outlook Now when we first met in june of last year The first wave of the pandemic was just behind us and there were signs and some hope of a vigorous Though highly uncertain recovery in the second half of 2020 And we discussed some of the factors that may shape the recovery the behavior of Savings and pender of demand the evolution in the labor market and unemployment The corporate vulnerabilities and potential negative financial feedback mechanisms but of course also the evolution of the pandemic and the associated containment measures itself And the vigorous policy response That the health authorities fiscal authorities prudential authorities and of course the central bank Also took in in response to the crisis Now we are about one year after the world health organization called the global pandemic And i'm afraid most of the themes are still the same I mean we have been in the second half of last year been surprised by The vigorous bounce back of the economy in the third quarter But in the near term The outlook is still very uncertain And primarily driven by the evolution of the pandemic And the extension of the containment measures In the medium term, the picture looks a little bit more rosy The the risks to the outlook have become more balanced In particularly because now we have more visibility on the vaccination process But of course, this race between mutations and vaccinations is still Going on So what I would like to do in the next 20 minutes is is just go through some of the factors that shape the Outlook for the air economy and for inflation And then we'll open the floor for questions and discussion So let me share with you the presentation So these are some of the the key messages, but rather than going through them. Let me just go through them by going through the presentation um I mean the first Thing to to mention is that of course the short-term Outlook continues to be shaped by the evolution of the pandemic And the the policy response the containment measures In response to this pandemic So what you you see here on the the left hand side of this slide is the the quarterly growth pattern in real gdp in the euro area starting in the third quarter of last year and then Through the the the four quarters of of this year, which are part of our projections um And so one thing to to mention is that The bounce back that we saw in q3 was much Higher and vigorous than we had talked about in in june last year at that time we had Expected the bounce back of around eight percent In reality, we had a bounce back of about almost 12 percent So the economy seemed to be quite resilient when once the sort of lockdown was released unfortunately After the summer then the pandemic started again Intensifying with the second wave and in some countries now the third wave And this then led to a negative outlook for Real gdp But less than we had expected. So if you look at the q4 number We have there now a number of negative rate of minus 0.6 percent But which is better than we had assumed in december of minus 2.2 percent In addition in this quarter the current quarter We are expecting to have again a small Decrease in in real gdp, which is a bit worse than we had Expected but then in the course of this year, we expect quite a vigorous rebound From from from this subdued subdued elbow And if you like to see what this means for the level of real gdp, that's shown On the right hand side of this slide The blue Solid line basically gives you the quarterly path of the level of real gdp in the euro area Through the lens of the march projections And so you can see how sort of this bounce back was quite Vigorous in q3, but then they have this this little dip down As as as we speak in the last quarter of Last year and the first quarter of force year before We hope to see a recovery as some of the containment measures are are released and vaccinations Spread through the through the population um What this means in terms of annual expected growth rates is shown here in the in the table above so we have Somewhat a small slide uptick in in growth rate for 21 And then more or less an unchanged path for 22 and 23 And this is more or less in line with many other Forecasts, so it's a bit More optimistic than the ocd's recent Projections, it's a bit less optimistic than sort of consensus views out there In order to explain this sort of short term Uncertainty and the sort of the technical recession that We are going through the small technical recession that we're going through In last quarter in this quarter Of course one has to look at what's going on with the pandemic and here on the left hand side The blue line gives you the so-called oxford stringency index In inverted scale meaning When this index goes down then actually the Containment measures are are more restricted And you see that no as the second and third wave of the pandemic took hold Obviously the measures were Became stricter most stringent again They didn't really reach the the level that we saw in the first quarter of last year, but still They were quite high The other graphs in this Or lines in this left-hand side picture basically show you some of those mobility Indicators that are good sort of real-time indicators of Activity going on and so one of the things to take away from from the comparison between the stringency index the blue line and the other the the green orange and and red lines is that Activity has been less affected at least as captured by these mobility index In this second and third wave Suggesting that firms and households to some extent have learned to sort of adapt to the containment measures And probably also the governments Have sort of applied sort of smarter containment measures um, the right-hand side of this this graph basically shows that of course The containment measures do not affect the different sectors of the economy equally And in fact, we see what some have called a bit of a k shaped recovery whereby some sectors some segments of the the firms and of the households Are doing relatively well through this pandemic and and what you see here in the orange line is the manufacturing sector So this is the pmi index of activity Manufacturing actually is in an expansionary mode Since last summer and has stayed there even through the second and the third wave The third sector that is most affected as as as as you can expect is the services sector, which is the the red line And this is of course where The the firms and the sectors that rely on social interaction Are are situated and that are affected by restrictions on on consumption of those type of services So a k shaped. I mean, there's not much of a k there, but in any case, that's what they call the k shaped recovery um, now one feature of of the economic outlook that we have seen is that It's mostly driven by very weak consumption Now the counterpart of the weak consumption is the increase in the savings rate because because of you know, the government's action support measures such as the job retention schemes Incomes are often protected to some extent And whereas at the same time consumers cannot Spend at least all the things that they would like to to consume And as a result you have quite a bit of forced saving accumulating and and to give you just one Indicator of this on the left-hand side. You basically see the changes in cash And deposits are held by households and you see how it basically matches The evolution of no distringency Indicator so a lot of accumulated savings in March and April of last year when no, there was forced Saving and to some extent also some precautionary saving Then it came down, but still some saving going on partly because of precautionary measures the uncertainty That is still surrounding us and then as the second and third way Started getting hold You see again an increase in the in the in the savings And of course one of the the factors that we are looking at very closely Is how this accumulated savings, which is quite a large amount of money. We're talking about 700 billion of Accumulated savings. How this will be spent or used going forward Now the right-hand side a slide on this gives you some indication of the distribution Of this savings behavior, which is based on on a commission survey Which sort of asks different households about their financial situation in the past 12 months And their current savings and so what you see from this slide that is it's mostly the young That have been negatively affected. So the age bracket between 16 and 29 years By the pandemic crisis situation Whereas the retired people the the age bracket of more than 65 have not been affected very much In terms of the savings you get the opposite that it's mostly older households that have been able Who who have a stable income that have been able to to to to save While as the young haven't been able to save at all and of course that is important information also to Understand how some of that savings again will be be spent As the containment measures are released and the recovery takes hold because presumably Some of the older households Margin propensity to consume out of this Increased wealth is less than that of Of the art. So this is an important factor of That will shape and is shaping the economic outlook In our own sort of consumer expectations survey, we have been asking households about how long they think How long they think it will last before Large enough part of the population is vaccinated and and we sort of Go back to to to normal. You see that sort of the kind of the median Things that this will last another seven to 12 Months so basically till after the the the summer And again these type of and and this has deteriorated a little bit From from January to February. So so basically there's a the lengthening of this this this period And of course that also matters For for consumption Those households that think that the pandemic will be resolved earlier Expect that they will consume more Well, there is those things that that thing that it will take it takes still More than a year to To resolve the the health crisis Basically Safe and Therefore for the plan to to reduce Consumption again Important factors to to determine this this consumption path um Now the other element which is shaping the the recovery is what's going on in the labor market There I think the most important Policy that is is shaping what's going on labor market are the job retention schemes Which generally have been Lengthened or prolonged as the the the pandemic has has Raised its its head again um, the result is that we actually have seen positive employment growth in Second half of last year. That's what you see on the the blue bars on the left-hand side for for the euro area And when you think about the current quarter And that's what you see in the the the little red Line on the left-hand side that for the first time in the current quarter Employment expectations are positive. So they are in positive charity according to the pmi employment index again as with activity overall The impact on the labor market is is is very different across Sectors and on the right-hand side you see how this indeed is affecting sectors like manufacturing very different From what is called here low tech services sector, which is really Sort of a combination of accommodation food services transportation sectors so where the effect of the second and the third wave Is again felt also quite strongly on on on employment um now employment, of course is is one way of looking at the labor market another way and this is a Nicolle important way is to looking at how many hours are worked in the economy because Because of the job retention schemes, of course more people have remained in In working on employment relationship With their firms, but many of those have worked less than a full-time job This is something that is illustrated in this slide on the left-hand side I mean you see sort of the contribution of the various components in in the labor market to GDP growth and the biggest part of No, the recession in q2 is average hours worked which dropped by a large amount This is also something you see on the right-hand side where you also see somewhat of the differences across the main Euro area countries whereas employment has dropped quite a bit hours worked has Fallen much much more It has bounced back again as the economy was opened and has fallen again as the pandemic It has been hit and a big factor thinking about the situation labor market situation looking forward will be As the economy recovers as the pandemic is Is conquered What will happen? No with the jobs that are currently Covered by the job retention schemes in our assumptions. Most of those jobs will Will be sort of maintained but there will be a small rise also in unemployment Much less than we have previously expected. So that is good news But it is likely that there will still be a small rise in unemployment to come once these support measures run run out Um, let me actually skip this which is just more information about the labor market and skip to Of course another important factor That is shaping the recovery, which is the substantial fiscal support On the left-hand side here You see the big increase in the budget deficit in the euro area in 20 From no almost a balance To a deficit of more than 7% of GDP Looking forward Looking at all the the plans of the of the government and the extensions of some of the support schemes We expect that The deficit will remain Quite high and the support will remain quite strong in this year And before then as the economy recovers The balance will go back to something that is around 3% or below 3% and of course this this does have an impact On on the debt, which is what you see on the right-hand side graph Okay, now what about inflation? No, so our primary mandate is to maintain price stability One impact of the pandemic was to create quite a bit of slack in the economy to increase No unemployment to increase Reduce capacity utilization And that has had an impact on on inflation What you see here on the left-hand side Is the evolution of our headline inflation index, the HICP Annual inflation rate from February last year to February This year. I mean you see how over the past year. There was this big downward Shift movement From no inflation rate Close to one point Two point three percent to a negative inflation rate Through most of the second half of last year Most of that was driven by The contribution by the orange boxes that you see in this graph, which is really energy price inflation So energy prices fell Very pronouncedly in the beginning of the year and that had this lasting impact In fact Since then in January and February inflation has bounced back as you can see in the last two columns here And this is mostly driven by a number of temporary factors. I mean the first factor is that energy price inflation is now much less negative and that you see in the contribution of the Orange bars, which have a less negative contribution The other factors have to do with the Normalization of the VAT rate particularly in in Germany at the beginning of this year, which pushed up Also core inflation so inflation of services and What we call non-energy industrial Good goods so the the red and the gray Bars and in addition there were a number of technical factors which had to do with changes in the Consumption basket as a result of The pandemic situation where of course some services like travel services Are used much less than and other services or goods like food Um, so this also had had an upward impact and then there are a number of other technical factors related To the timing of of of sales now the result of all that is that There is somewhat of an upward as we had expected Or a reversal of the negative impact on the headline inflation But we expect and that this is what you see on the right That's a side that many of these temporary factors will again reverse At the beginning of next year. So over this year. We think we will see an increase of headline inflation which is now 0.9 Which will get close to two percent towards the end of the year, but then will fall back to lower levels And then gradually rise to 1.4 percent in 2023 as you can see now And of course this underlying subdued inflation behavior is still driven by the fact that we have Of course Still a lot of slack in the economy and and weak demand Again, this is just a table to give you the annual numbers of our inflation March inflation projections 1.5 percent for for this year and then Falling back and picking up again to 1.4 percent at the end of our projection Arise again more or less in line also with many other forecasters Let me just end with this last slide which is giving you some information also on inflation expectations from other sources on the left hand side, you see Inflation expectations from our survey of professional forecasters At different horizons the blue one is the 12th month ahead the yellow one orange one the 24th month ahead and then the five years ahead and you see that there is indeed an improved outlook For inflation, but it is still relatively subdued even for the five years ahead and away from Our inflation aim, which is no below but close to 2 percent We seem a stronger pickup in inflation expectations, but from lower levels in the market based expectation measures But again, mostly the same the same type of of of movement So let me End this this presentation Just by sort of give you kind of a The little kind of overview or the summary of this this sort of quick presentation So while the the overall economic situation Is expected to improve over 2021 There clearly remains uncertainty in the short term economic outlook And while our latest staff projection Exercise foresees a gradual increase in underlying inflation pressures Over the next two to three years It did does confirm that the inflation outlook remains broadly unchanged relative to december and below our inflation aim of below but close to 2 percent And in these conditions, no preserving favorable financing conditions, which is what what the the governing council of the ecb Sort of committed to or promised in december remains essential Now market interest rates have increased quite a bit since the start of the year Which poses a risk for for the wider financing conditions because um The riskless yield curve and also sovereign bond yield curve Our key reference rates for determining more general credit conditions And so if left unchecked these these increases in market rates could translate into a premature tightening of financing conditions for for all sectors of Of the economy, which is clearly undesirable at the time when Uh, it's it's still important to preserve these favorable conditions to reduce uncertainty in this Still uncertain world and to also bolster confidence and thereby underpin economic activity and safeguard medium-term price stability. And so it's against this background That the governing decided governing council decided last week To lean against the rise in bond yields by significantly increasing the pace of purchases under our tap program um So that that was the kind of the main decision of uh, of of of of last week and hope You sort of understand a little bit how The economic and inflation outlook was sort of an input into into that decision. So let me stop here and See what what questions there are and have a conversation Thank you very much frank for that very comprehensive, uh, summary and presentation on topic that clearly affects all of us, unfortunately still I'm sure that by now, uh, some of our participants will have questions and or comments that they would like to raise So if you would like to take the floor, please start raising your electronic hand now The hand is a small button that should be located on the right hand side of your screen underneath the participant list Once I see your hand, that's a signal for me that you'd like to take the floor And my colleagues in the background will connect you once I raise or read your name Please bear with us as this might take a moment or two You'll be automatically unmuted so you can start speaking immediately We also encourage you to turn on your camera. Should you wish to do so? And uh, please introduce yourself first, uh before asking your question Remember also to lower your electronic hand after you've taken the floor This just makes it easier for us to identify if you'd like to take the floor again So we're especially interested to hear in your perspectives and uh top and uh any research you might have on this topic So feel free to share that with us In case of issues, again, please feel free to chat with us and just remember to chat with all panelists I can see the first hand raised by mr. Matthew I hope I have pronounced your name correctly and apologize in advance in case I haven't I believe this is from the european trade union confederations um, thank you very much for this presentation and for for the little event and update on the very current issues going on I have one One or two general question and one a small question about your presentation The first general question, uh, would be indeed. I am from the european trade union federation and i'm here speaking On on it was about the general escape close Of the of the stability and gross pact At the end of the press conference Your president Last week mentioned also that she would like the the debate on the fiscal rules to uh, uh, um, how could I say to uh, uh Take off quite quickly In order to have new rules when the general escape close will be deactivated Uh, I wanted to have your view on that Keeping in mind for us that indeed we are supporting very much the the prongation of the fiscal support both I mean at the member state but for workers and businesses and we see a strong as you have mentioned uncertainty For keeping a lot of support. So, uh, that's why I just wanted to have your general view about the general escape close And the debate on the fiscal rules because the commission As is not so clear about when Uh, uh, the consultation on economic governance and fiscal rules should be should resume We do think that it has to resume very quickly for being in position to have the new fiscal rules as soon as we can The second question is just a little question. Uh, it's about when you spoke about Spain Uh, I mean when you spoke about employment, especially, uh, twice pen was mentioned with Piggers which were worse than the rest Of the other member states and of the eurozone. Uh, it was just to know Whether the the confinement was stronger over there We know basically that has been touched more and uh, like italy or member states like that But I just wanted to have your confirmation on this. Thank you very much Thank you very much, uh, Matthew. Um So first of all on on the uh, the general escape close and and sort of the fiscal policy, uh context Um, I mean first of all, uh, as as our president and also the governing council in its its communication has emphasized in these circumstances Now where monetary policy is also at that has already very low Interest rate. It's very important that fiscal and monetary policy work hand in hand as our our president Says and this is more or less what is going on. I mean as I showed in in the the actual Figures or graphs on The fiscal fiscal support Now going forward. I think it is important that I mean as long as the pandemic is there policy institutions and particularly The fiscal authorities no provide a bridge for households for firms to cross that That that pandemic river Um, and I mean so far. This is exactly what many governments have done now Once of course, we're out of the the pandemic which again, hopefully Will be sooner rather than later. There will be still a need to support the the recovery um, and I think this this this has been sort of acknowledged in in in the fact that most likely The general escape clause will be extended to 2022 Of course, it's also acknowledged in the next generation EU program Where again We at ECB and the president was again quite vocal on this in at the european parliament yesterday Where we think it's very important that the whole ratification process implementation Takes place as soon as possible because this is really The funds that Have very important two important features To to address some of the challenges. The first one is That they are associated with you know investment in some of the areas that will be very important To sort of as some would call it build back our economies better So the digital area and also the the green economy area and secondly Because of course it is financed through bond issues By the european commission. It's also an instrument that can Address some of the heterogeneities. I mean you mentioned spain. You mentioned italy some of the heterogeneities that We do see in in the current crisis and also in Probably in the in the recovery. So that is very important. Now. What about the sgp? Again, this is really for for obviously for the commission to To to to to lead and to to to manage it. It's not our business But I think Again, the president and public council is on on record That they think that she thinks that indeed it is important to to reform the sgp and to do it As soon as possible Basically, which means probably no in the second half of this year or after after the summer so that indeed When the the current support Measures run out also the new sgp framework is is is there to to to guide fiscal policies through through the recovery on spain, I think basically It is true that in in many indicators and particularly in the labor market Spain seems to be one of the most affected countries at least of the big Euro area countries And of course, it's it's a number of factors But probably the most important is The fact that of course tourism and and so the services factors sector this particular services sector that is um affected most by Some of the the containment measures and the restrictions on on travel is of course one of the most important sectors in in in spain. So that's the I would say the main factor more than differences in how The the health policies or containment policies Have been have been maintained Thank you very much for kicking us off there I see another hand raised from mr. Martin schmaltz reed From coface families europe. We're going to connect you. Please bear with us for a moment Yeah, martin schmaltz reed senior policy and advocacy manager at coficy families europe So thank you very much for your invitation With regards to inflation the mainstream theory argues that by lowering interest rates You can increase inflation by encouraging borrowing and therefore spending But there might be a new way of viewing this relationship that businesses and households borrowing needs are rather steady And the prices directly reflect the cost of borrowing that is that when the cost of borrowing increases Then you adjust your prices to offset that cost Now with this view keeping interest rates low prevents inflation from increasing So do you see interest rates increasing anytime soon? And also I saw that in your slide you skipped a slide on lending and the situation of lending So if you could quickly comment on the lending situation, that would be great. Thank you very much Yes, I mean, thank you very much for for these two interesting questions On the relationship between interest rates and inflation, I mean Clearly, uh, I mean we still think and most of the evidence Uh, that I know of still suggests that on average Fall or an easing of interest rates does stimulate the economy through a number of channels um Not only a sort of the the cost of finance Channel which I would agree in the current circumstances is probably weaker than usually Definitely for households because uh, obviously It's actually difficult to to to spend I mean even if you wanted to buy a car or a fridge And and needs to to to lend to to finance that I mean, it's not it's not the time But there are many other channels to which low interest rates help One is through affecting the exchange rate Another one is through reducing the interest burden Of those households firms and of course also the government That uh that are borrowing and at least in our analysis this still Um, this still dominates some of these Reverse effects, which um, which which clearly are there to some extent Now on on the the question of Is there like a cost push channel of interest rates? So when interest rates rise financing costs increase And of course that increases costs of firms Which then increase prices I think there is indeed some evidence for those firms that are heavy borrowers That this channel Exists, um, but I think it's only a partial channel and secondly, I'm not sure That's is what we would like to do to get inflation. No, I mean, it's not that it would be healthy for the economy To increase the cost of finance just in order to make sure that prices prices increase But it's definitely something that that is is there and this is also partial a partial effect But I don't think it it dominates and it doesn't reverse the optimality of keeping Financing conditions favorable in the current circumstances um Then on lending. Yes. So, uh, basically what what happened Is quite different for from lending to firms versus lending to households on lending to firms. It was a big Sort of borrowing a binge in March and April Which was facilitated by many of the policies that No, not only the central bank, but but also the governments know who guaranteed some of those loans and also the supervisors who allowed banks, uh, to to to to to make those loans at at Easier sort of capital conditions Um, but since then, uh, there's these flows the monthly flows of loans has has basically dropped And now is is very amidst around the last flow was around zero Um, now this reflects different factors. First of all firms seem to have Also saved like households a lot of the cash that they borrowed in the early part of the uh, the pandemic And so there's no need from a liquidity perspective to borrow more in the second and third wave Secondly, and that's of course less Uh, less positive In the current circumstances Clearly the uncertainty is so high that many firms have postponed investment plans and so they have less demand for uh, for loans and for borrowing Because of that because there's less investment and again that obviously we would hope would Change whenever the economy starts growing again And and so so these are basically the two Main factors that explain why Loans now there's another effect that that we're watching out very carefully and that is Um, that's the sort of the the credit standards that banks Have the vis-a-vis firms that they don't tighten too much in the current circumstances So there there's some indications that they haven't been tightening somewhat which is to be expected because of course the risks Of those loans has has also increasing but overall bank lending conditions are still very Very very low on the on the household side. We have more of a A stable growth Of loan growth rate of loans for mortgages Through throughout this this this bender Thank you very much for that question and answer We have two more people who would like to take the floor and we'll be taking them in the following order First from mr. Giuseppe Guerrini who is from the european confederation of industrial and service cooperatives Followed by miss sorka edwards who's from housing europe and then I believe we might have Time for one more question. So please Use the opportunity to raise your hands to For the last question. Thank you very much Okay, thank you. Thank you very much for this very interesting Webinar I have just a question about the npl regulation proposed from European commission What is your opinion because npl regulation is very important for people for managing the loans also for Small and medium enterprises and many cooperatives are small and medium enterprises and for example The bank regulation treatment of npl Is a lost coverage regulation It don't help a bank and Debtors in having enough time to reconcile the relation of restructure Indeed it help what you found in the aqua npl at lower price. What is your opinion about that? Thank you very much Sorry for my bad English No, no, that's that's perfect Perfectly understood I'm afraid I don't really have a good answer because I'm I'm It's it's a little bit outside my sort of daily responsibilities the the npl Regulation, I mean what what I can say is that no so far We haven't seen much of an increase in npls But that's of course because of all the support measures that have taken place and also the the moratoria And we of course expect that some I mean there has been an increase in in loan loss provisions to some extent But we expect of course that this will rise to some extent Once those support measures are sort of dialed down and it will be important from and the macroeconomic perspective to To to to really monitor this this closely so that we don't get into a sort of negative feedback loop between rising loan losses and tightening sort of more fragile banks tightening credit centers by banks And again more problems for for for the firms but the details of of the npl regulation. I'm afraid This is not This is not in my In my area Thank you, Frank. We have the question from Ms. Sorker Edwards Yes, so we we are representing the local housing for social public and cooperative housing providers We're about to launch The end of next week our state of housing report and The results show and from we compare also to own cd and studies and moody predictions That there will be an increase in the in the demand for social and affordable housing And particularly from those groups who may have Whose employment have been hit hard by the crisis and particularly for young people So obviously this is a national issue, but we we do have and more Let's say the ecb is becoming a little bit more vocal on that issue. So I'd like to hear if there is If there are any plans or any advice to go to to member states I just want to last point on that. We see that France whose social housing system is financed based on people's savings is actually doing very well so their libra system and based on Savings from the general population has been used now to lever additional european funding And to boost the supply of social housing. So it's interesting to see your figures there on on savings as well Let's add that into the discussion. Thank you very much. Yeah, thank you very much For this question, which I think is it's an important social issue And it's also one of the things as you may know Now we're going through a strategy monetary policy strategy review exercise and We've had many sort of ecb listens events to to see what are some of the concerns that are are living in in in in the general public and the issue of the cost of housing and particularly sort of owner Occupied housing, but I think it's more more more general because of the of course the rental and the owner's market is is is linked Is one of the issues that has come up frequently and particularly coming from again young and Poor households And it's one of those no kind of side effects of having this low interest rate environment which is pushing up House prices, which of course we we monitor now one clear Again, this is not in our remit. No as a as a central bank But but it is clear that one way of of trying to address some of these issues is by governments thinking about the supply of housing and the supply of social housing More generally again, this is for for government governments and and the the appropriate institutions to to To to to decide But at least through our policy of preserving favorable financing conditions.  The the the civil society Yes, I I'm not sure I got the full question, but the question I understood is uh, whether we also reach out to civil society organizations Uh in the context of our monitor policy strategy review and uh, I guess the answer is yes Yes, you do But no, no, no the question was more when you prioritize You're you're doing two different sectors and and How much do you actually ask? the stakeholders outside the bank What what their priorities are well, um I mean in terms of our no objectives No, what we're trying to achieve of course That's given by by the treaty. No, so the primary objective Is to to maintain price stability? um then In addition, you know, the treaty tells us to also support the general economic policies of of the eu and uh, I mean one part Of our strategy review is exactly to review how to interpret that That that part of part of the the mandate and um As as part of that, of course, we we look at a number of other considerations including I mean employment including climate change the including financial stability considerations um, but in the end All these considerations have to be seen in the context of our primary objective which is price stability so it mean I don't know if this answers, but no, no, no. Well, frankly, honestly, no, no, I appreciate that and I honestly also knew that but but It's a bit more concerned when it comes to the um more practical implementation of supporting the policies of your second objective, if you could say whether you actually ask the civil society organizations or you ask civil society their views on on on what could be your policies Well, again, I think this this has I mean In the context of the strategy review, um, we have organized these listen Listen events and there is actually a report on our website which kind of summarizes some of those uh Um suggestions, no and and and what what, uh, the the various, uh, I mean also Uh individuals, but but also civil society organizations are suggesting Now, of course, um, if you read that report, you will see there's a very diverse set of views on the one hand You have, of course, civil society organizations that basically make the case for their No, their case for their their interests On the other hand, you have a quite a number of citizens out there that sort of worry a little bit about the kind of the mission creep of the the central bank and Worry about the fact that no, uh, we we take on too much And that this may endanger our price stability and exactly sort of that's that's That's why I started by saying no to the primary man. It is Um, of course, uh, but but but but clearly this is not, uh, sort of an easy task at the same time No, the treaty is a treaty and so To the extent that there are important objectives uh of the eu that We can support in the pursuit of of our mandate That will be that's one of the the topics of the strategy review. But for that, you know, you will have to Be a little bit more patient Till after the summer Okay, thank you Thank you very much and uh with an eye on time. I'm going to close this webinar I'd like to thank frank very much for joining us today for this lively discussion And I'd like to also thank all of the civil society organization Representatives who have taken the time on board today to share with us their contributions as well We'd be really interested to hear your feedback on today's session But also if you have any suggestions with regards to future topics of webinars, please feel free to let us know So we'll be posting a link to a quick feedback survey in the chat and we'll also be following up with you with an email With the same link. So we would appreciate if you could take two minutes to fill out the survey This is really helpful for us to be able to ensure that we're continuously improving the webinars and Providing you with as much value as we hope we can We look forward to seeing you at future events And if there's anything that you would like to get in touch with us in the meantime Or if there's a question that you didn't manage to ask also maybe due to the technical problems We had earlier. Please feel free to reach us using our email address Which is civilsociety at ecb.europa.eu And with that I'd like to wish you a lovely afternoon and hopefully also a nice weekend. Thank you very much for joining


Hey everyone it's Allison welcome back to the tiny herd where we talk about everyday pet care for guinea pigs rabbits and other small pets Today's video. I'm going to be sharing more about the other small pets portion of that I told you guys last week and over on my social media that I was getting a pair of rats I had a huge pet supply haul showing you everything that I got for them and in today's video I'm going to be telling you more about them showing you their Final cage setup giving you a little cage tour and introducing you to the rats themselves So let's go ahead and get started All right so what we're gonna do in this video is I'm going to explain a little bit about the rats and Why we got them that sort of thing and then I'm gonna show you their cage You give you a little mini cage tour and then introduce you officially to the boys So to start off with just really quick There's no like major story about the rats or anything like that I have a habit of checking our local humane society website to see if there's any small animals for adoption And they actually had three male rats that they were working on either finding boss or homes or adopting out I had wanted rats it before like I've always kind of wanted them. They're really smart I just think they're really interesting and they were a pet that is Nothing like really any of my other pets except for the mice. They're a little bit similar But there is a lot of difference between the care of all of my other animals and rats So I sent the link to my boyfriend We kind of talked about it and we actually decided to go ahead and start setting things up for them See if we could put in an application to see if we could adopt them And it actually happened that later that week we went down and we did a meet-and-greet with them got to meet them And I knew after we did that that it was gonna be one of those things where it was just gonna work out So we got to meet them. It went really well. All he came out and talked to us Talked to us, but you know, he came out to the cage. He let us pick him up. He seemed really interested in what was going on The other one seemed more shy, but still interested in what was going on So we decided we were gonna go ahead and adopt them. I ordered all of their stuff that you guys saw in that hall I worked for the week to get things set up and ready for them And then I did pick them up that Friday and brought them home. So we have had them now for About a week and a half almost two weeks by the time you guys see this video and it's been Really really good so far. They're settling in and it's been going pretty well. They're very smart and Ollie is hand-taming really fast. Noodle is starting to come out of his shell. So it's been going really well But that's the whole background story of the rats and why we got them I do want to mention if you haven't seen any of my previous videos. I have a lot of animals I have 13 pets right now now that we have the rats and I do work full-time So it is a lot, but my boyfriend and I have the goal of opening a small pet rescue in our area So for rabbits, guinea pigs, rats, mice, hedgehogs All those different kind of animals that get kind of overlooked or shelters won't take So because of that my plan over the next, you know Years because this is going to be a multiple year thing that it's gonna take a while for us to have the money and the means and all of those different things to get things set up in the meantime as I'm able to and have the time and Money available to do so. I am adopting animals to be my own pets so that I can learn about their care and Also help give animals that needs homes homes while I have the ability So by the time we're able to have a rescue I should have some pretty good experience taking care of a lot of different types of animals So that will translate well for me into a rescue setting So just to give you guys a little bit of background there But I'm gonna stop talking now and we're gonna go ahead and show you guys the cage and Introduce you to the boys. All right, so this is the rat cage. This is the Midwest critter nation I'm just gonna show you guys a quick tour of it I'll open it up and then introduce you guys to the rats So this is the double Critter nation so you can see they have both pieces or both sections I guess and then we do have some Organization underneath the rats are both eating right now So it's a good a time as any to open it up So I just have the top level in here with the litter box. They're eating their snacks right there Then I just have a Sputnik some hanging baskets. They're hanging baskets all the way around If you can see back there and then there is a lavalage and A net they have a water dish. They have a ball pit to be foraging There's so I put food down in there and they have to find it. They have a house And then on this side they have a hammock and then some ropes and then another basket down there It's kind of hard to show you guys Just because I'm not sure what the rats are gonna do yet I don't think they would try to jump but sometimes Ollie scares me a little and then on the bottom level We just have like I said, there's a basket. I have another actual critter nation level with the ramp there's a litter box down there and then a hide in a tube and then I did put a Cement mixing pan in the bottom to put bedding in and then they have of course a couple water bottles attached to the outside And I didn't mention they have a foraging wheel up on the top So let's go ahead and introduce you to the Raddies Back up little guy. So this guy up front here. This is Ollie. I call him Oliver He is definitely the most outgoing of the two He just likes to be the center of attention and then that little timid guy behind him is Noodle who just grabbed the pumpkin seed and ran off So See, I don't I don't know what he's going to do. He seems like he wants to jump. So back him up a bit So they are about seven or eight months old. So they're not super old They're pretty energetic Noodle's definitely more laid back and shy while Ollie is very adventurous and outgoing He wants us to pay attention to him at all times Can see him down there But they go all over their cage. They love to play fight Noodle will come out of his shell eventually.  If you don't know what that is That's the thing that rats do when they're like content So it's nice to see that they're settling in and I think they are enjoying their their new space They had only one section of a critter nation at the animal shelter So I think they're enjoying Having a lot more space Hi, you don't need to get on my camera, sir. He's literally on my camera right now Okay, I'm gonna are you going down?  Ollie is gonna be hand tamed pretty soon I know it's just gonna be a matter of time before we can hold him without him trying to jump out of our hands So Noodle will take a little more time. You can see he's a little shy and timid here He'll go to the back when he feels uncomfortable, but I mean you just saw him come up to the camera, so He's slowly but surely I think as Ollie is getting more confident and he's seeing that he's coming out of his shell a little bit more But he is a very cute little man All right, so you can hear Ollie drinking water, but I'm gonna let them go back to eating their food They're still a little bit shy and they're not super excited about the camera So I'm gonna leave them alone But you guys at least got to see them and meet them and hear a little bit about them See a little mini cage tour, so you can expect some cage tours in the future. I'm already planning on doing a Halloween cage You drinks a louser I'm already planning on doing a Halloween and a Christmas cage, so I'll be doing cage tours in the future But let me know if you guys have any questions or comments down below. So thank you guys so much for watching I hope you guys enjoyed getting to meet the new rats. I will be sharing more of them in the future Let me know what you think down below make sure to subscribe to my channel if you haven't already I post new videos every Tuesday and Friday Thank you guys again so much for watching and I will see you in the next one. Bye


Teacher's mock-boy regret it when mom shows up with microphone. When Candan Davis' behavior started to change for the worse, his mother didn't know what to do. She tried talking to his school to see if they knew what could be the cause, but her concerns fell on deaf ears. That's when she decided to take matters into her own hands, and what she discovered was nothing less than shocking.  She works with many horses as therapy animals, and she loves her job. But what keeps her the most occupied is her 12-year-old son Candan, who has special needs. She is fiercely protective of him, so when he started showing signs of distress, she knew she had to act. After Candan was accepted to greater Baton Rouge Hope Academy, Melissa felt extremely lucky. The school prides itself on promoting, inclusion, encouragement, positive relationships, and recognition of student accomplishment. She hoped the school could give him the supportive environment he needed to thrive academically. But soon she would find out it was the complete opposite. A few months into the school year, Melissa began noticing stark changes in Candan's behavior. He became more aggressive, his anxiety increased, and he even started wetting the bed, something he hadn't done since he was three years old. But when she asked him what was wrong, he couldn't verbalize it. Still, she wasn't about to let it go. Thinking Candan's new school environment might have something to do with his behavioral change, Melissa went to Hope Academy to talk about her son's situation. She tried to speak to the principal and school officials about where Candan was seated in the classroom, among other things. But the school wasn't cooperative at all. So Melissa decided to take matters into her own hands. Melissa bought a tape recorder and put it in Candan's backpack one day before school. She hoped that the device would record anything that was happening at the school that was out of the ordinary. She knew it was an extreme measure, but given that her concerns had fallen on deaf ears at the school, she felt she had no choice. When Candan came back from school, Melissa couldn't wait to hear what was on the tape. Melissa took the recorder from Candan's backpack and rewound it. She knew she'd have to listen to hours of audio, with the possibility that there was nothing of interest in the tape. And, sure enough, the beginning of the recording showed the normal goings-on of a school day. But then she came upon some conversations that chilled her to the core. On the tape, Candan's teacher can be heard scolding him for not writing something he was assigned. This would be normal at a regular school, but special needs children don't respond well to admonishment. On top of that, the teacher's tone was condescending, even mocking Candan's attempts at verbalizing. In shock, Melissa continued to listen, and the worst was yet to come. At one point, a conversation can be heard between the teacher and her teaching assistant. Though no children appeared to be present, they were clearly in the classroom and close to Candan's backpack. They were talking derogatorily about Candan, even using swear words. Melissa couldn't believe what she was hearing. I just wanted to cry, scream and do everything I could because it was so bad, Melissa said. To think that I had sent my son there every day, and what had happened before that I don't know about. Armed with that damning evidence, Melissa once again went to school officials. And, once again, her concerns were dismissed. But she was determined not to be ignored. Melissa immediately pulled Candan out of Hope Academy. But she didn't want to leave the issue there, thinking of all the other special needs children being exposed to such unprofessional teachers. So she did what she knew would get the school's attention, she posted the audio on her Facebook page. Her plan worked. The post went viral, forcing the school to take action. Principal Linda Stone released a statement, saying one of the teachers had been fired and the other would be let go once the semester ended. She also asked the Davis family to come to meet with her and other school officials to discuss the issue. But by then, Melissa had other ideas in mind. Melissa hired the services of Attorney Charlotte McGhee and planned to file a complaint with the Department of Education. No child should have to have this happen to them, she told Board Panda. I brought this to light because I wanted my son to be the last kid that this happened to at this school. The pressure forced the school to fire the second teacher immediately. Meanwhile, people online shared their opinions on the incident, revealing a disturbing trend. Many people who saw Melissa's Facebook post praised her for her smart actions and for advocating on behalf of special needs children. Others shared their own stories of child abuse at the hands of educators. Melissa was touched by the sentiments of support from all over the world and even opened a PO box so people could send letters and gifts to Camden. In the meantime, she's tried to get his education back on track. Melissa transferred Camden to a different school, making sure that the teachers were qualified and professional. Camden's new teacher minored in psychology and has a degree in special education and applied behavior analysis. Even so, the effects of his former teachers bullying have not completely subsided. Hopefully, with time and lots of support, Camden can go back to being the sweet, loving kid he was before.


Okay, so a very good morning to you. It is Friday the 18th of October I hope everyone is doing good and ready for the session ahead and certainly still a very much of a Brexit focus given the Rollercoaster price activity we had yesterday. Obviously particularly interesting having had a deal Brokered between Boris Johnson his team and the EU Seeing a significant rally in the pound only then to come crashing back down a few hours later Actually, let's just jump straight to the pound and have a look where we are at the moment against the dollar and cable And that was the kind of extremity of the price movement we had yesterday So when the European morning started, we started to get some then quite early signals that perhaps A deal was going to get struck and then when that started to get come through and get confirmation officially from various different Journalists and and the spokespeople related to the event. We saw a really aggressive move to the upside got up to about 130 that kind of area And the way of which you know this kind of price action has been responding definitely in terms of targets when you see these bigger moves Very technical in terms of where they've been responding on the consulate areas of consolidation But then also targets on the ascent when we have moved higher and I got up to around that 130 looking on a daily chart 1415 kind of level does start to encapsulate a little bit of the price activity on the bottom end of the range through the The back end of Q1 Q2 of this year Before just pulling back and settling now where we are at the moment just below the 129 handle so net net I mean it's been such a Strong recovery for the pound of course. I mean if we put this on a 90-minute chart, you know where we were to where we are right now having traded really at the 122 handle having then tested and 130 and now sitting at the 129 which is just sub its pivot at the moment So all of this really my interpretation to make it most simple is that this is Not and again, it's not that a deal is gonna get done and Brexit solved and we're on the way now This is more about for me the elimination of no deal Getting priced out of the market and the interesting thing here Sam and I were looking at was that if you think about when Theresa May Left and then the market had this distinct repricing in of the Increased risk of a no deal because even though there were what five Candidates put forward for the leadership of the conservative party even from before the televised debates begun Everyone knew Boris Johnson was gonna win So the whole thing was just a bit of a waste of time quite frankly and that meant that Boris Johnson being of the more Extreme approach of do or die delivering no deal by the deadline meant that the market kind of reprised after Theresa left from about one 3131 type level all the way down to where we where we hit which was a multi-decade low Momentarily getting below the post initial e referendum low of 120 sterling against the dollar but what's been happening here and and definitely What has happened in the last week and a half or so is that a In the middle of September. Well, if I just highlight it here two real distinct phases here fundamentally One is when we got to this period of the middle of December That was when Parliament remember managed to pass through the bend bill which changed UK legislation meaning that really the prospect of Boris Johnson Facilitating a no deal is really not a credible threat now that hasn't stopped We know Boris saying that because the technicalities of the law is very complicated And you know the people in the public I would absolutely understand that you know the nuances of UK legislation is just too much of an undertaking and really quite frankly uninteresting and so Boris can continue the kind of message and tone if you like so one point though is that soon as that legislation came in well Basically for me the no deal probability dropped substantially and that's not just me That's what markets are thinking, you know the pound started to rally already at that point when confirmation of that law Got its royal assent then we had a period an episode of a bit of a pullback but then came this you know what we've had here, which is this phenomenal rally really and Interestingly, we've come all the way back up to pretty much where Theresa May left So if anything this this area of price movement that we've had which is you know no small thing We're talking about the best part of a ten point range But we're back to exactly where we were so for me this isn't you know this is more of a case of no deal now as it is eliminated because You know what happens now on Saturday is if Parliament back his deal Then we push on and then we go into this transition period to the end of 2020 And then the likelihood is this will be a multi-year discussion about its implementation or He asks for an extension we kick the can down the road So it's either delay or deal and definitely that's been the message as well of which Boris is trying to push Certainly now to that up the ante to put the pressure on Parliament because if Parliament blocks this You know, I think Boris Johnson has got an awesome hand to play now with the British public because you know if I was you know gearing up for an election if I was Thinking do you know what and then we're gonna look at it the Parliamentary arithmetic at the moment It's looking I would say on the balance unlikely his deal will pass through Parliament now if that is the case And I think Boris knows this I Would be absolutely talking up what's going on at the moment and we saw this yesterday This was one of the tweets that I did and I was talking to a few of the guys here about this Boris yesterday kind of late morning He did a string of tweets and I thought it was just so Incredibly telling for me of what his agenda is or his target and objective Because it was almost like I could have taken Donald Trump's tweets and overlaid an algorithm and just pumped out another tweet But just stuck Boris Johnson's Profile over it now that's because Everything he was talking about for me was nothing really to do about what the details and Brexit and so on it was all to do with gearing up for a general election Because I think he knows this deal isn't gonna go through so what's gonna be the strongest way to leverage the situation? Well as he delivered with Parliamentary officials last night when he said to them look it's either deal Or we have no deal we cannot delay again. So again heaping the pressure and his tweets I mean this was just This this was just a couple of words that came out of two tweets that he delivered take back control He said he said in two tweets five times Then he said NHS. We've got to tackle violent crime. We've got to think about the environment I mean give me a break think about the environment. I mean But this is it. I mean this is why I love tracking this stuff is because This is what I'm trying to do when I'm when I'm thinking about what's the political narrative and where do they want to go? And what could the potential outcome be to me this? Tells me this is a government Pretty sure that the deal will not go through and so therefore They're looking to now think several steps down the line about Cultivating sentiment around more support into a general election There's to me That's just absolutely as brazen as it comes with the type of language that they were adopting and the hashtags and so on so Yeah, it's gonna be interesting and obviously Saturday is the day because for really the first time in Many many years and only a few times in history recent modern history. In fact Parliamentary members are gonna sit and have a vote on a Saturday God forbid they'd need to work at the weekend, of course, but looking at here. This is the current composition of Parliament now the FT always do this really excellent look at what the current numbers are and what the current feeling is Between the people they've been talking to what MPs have been saying They have this quite good neat political model that they calculate the potential numbers So I'm gonna run through a few things and I'll keep this graphic visible So the FT suggests that unless the Prime Minister Can persuade the DUP to drop its opposition? Obviously something what we saw yesterday Or persuade several Labour MPs or independent parliamentarians to support the deal Mr. Johnson will struggle to win a House of Commons majority So this we know you know securing the deal with Brussels is one part getting it through Parliament a whole different ballgame Again, a la what we saw with Theresa May on multiple occasions now the FT estimates on a top level There are 321 MPs who could vote against the deal with 318 supporting it now in terms of the breakdown importantly out of the 287 Tory MPs So if you were looking at here conservatives at the bottom you got the blues But then you've also got the hard line you're a skeptic conservatives or the Spartans as they are Self-entitled so after 287 Tory MPs nearly all are expected to back the deal and that Importantly does include that you're a skeptic group of conservatives the Spartans that that kind of lead figure there Now that we smog has kind of morphed into the cabinet and what has happened now is Steve Barker has been the main guide to monitor in terms of the overall spokesman that represents that group of people and he's been very warm to backing the Prime Minister again The thought being that look if we don't take this deal, perhaps there could be never a deal And so better to just go with it now in that respect So that could be good for Boris in terms of accumulating numbers One one thing that the a Tory What was said by one of the Tory MPs was that over the next 40 hours I quote they one of them said There's gonna be some medieval whipping going on I thought I thought Christ if I said that outside of anyone talking about politics Just a normal conversation in the pub and you heard me saying there's gonna be some medieval whipping going on this weekend Yeah, you might think other things of course But the point being is that that phrase is very important the whipping process is absolutely key these are the people that really almost In a in a in a less Confrontational way force these MPs to back the government. This is a very normal process with British politics Now why this is important is because mr. Johnson the PM needs to win over 23 independent conservatives Now they're independent because Formatory MPs had their party whip removed and so basically they're ostracized by their own party And there's at least three of those that are very unlikely It's unlikely to back the government that being Dominic Grieve Gatto Beb and Justin Greening and so those three you can discount even though they are part of that political party The majority though are expected to support the agreement. So some of the numbers I've seen this morning could be as high as 15 of those independent conservatives Now without the DUP though importantly the Prime Minister's efforts are going to be partly focused on how many other Independent MPs he can capture and now a lot of these the predominant amount are Mainly former Labour parliamentarians that could be persuaded to back his deal Again the idea that they've been dissatisfied with the approach of Jeremy Corbyn, but also likewise Boris does have a deal And so if you wanted to deliver as per your Constituencies wish which may have been heavily leaning to vote to leave and that might still be the case Then ultimately do you want to vote with the government to just get this deal done? You know get Brexit Brexit going in that in that sense obviously National Party The Scottish National Party study five MPs the Lib Dems 19 They're all expected to go against the deal the Welsh parties for MPs the single green vote will set to reject it We know this of course The balance of power, you know one thing that definitely shifts this is the DUP because obviously they represent 10 and That would make life Incredibly more easier for Boris to get something but at the moment we know what they've said Latest comments this morning from one of their well the party spokesman Sammy Wilson He quoted this morning I will give you an absolute assurance that there will not be voting for this deal when it comes before the House of Commons Why should we and I also saw a tweet a journalist commenting from Dodds Nigel Dodds saying basically he's going to be talking to other conservative members Convincing them that they should not vote for the government's deal so all in all There's a few other things I can share with you later, but my feelings here is that the deal is not going to pass which means and The government spokesperson has already said a few days ago that Boris will abide by the Ben law Which means they'll have to write a letter then to Brussels at the end of Saturday if this meeting does indeed Or the vote yes tomorrow conclude with a vote against the government's deal and then that means Essentially the whole thing rolls over but for me that is the beginning of the next phase of where we're at at the moment Which is then what are going to have to be the dominoes to fall in order to get to the point of a general election Which I still at this point see happening Timing is obviously key is to try and ascertain when that might be But I still think that the end medium term outcome here is a general election and I do think that Boris Has the ability to come out in a very favorable position all things being equals It stands today given the way he's positioned himself as I said the tone of the tweets He was doing yesterday forget the tweets just going ahead check out the comments that people were saying on his tweets I mean I saying to Sam one guy was comparing Boris Johnson to Winston Churchill That's how much love there is at the moment for Boris following this simplistic message of Just delivering Brexit which I think is a stroke of genius by Cummings It worked in 2016 and I think there is absolutely even more potential for it to be even more powerful this time around if they were a general election so I think it's all going as You know being a few bumps obviously in the road, but the way of which those Strategists have been planning Right enough Brexit Let's move on Let's talk about something else Let's talk about China There's some Chinese data overnight and one thing I just wanted to touch upon We talk about the pound and this kind of obsession with Brexit at the moment It is obviously a lot of other things going on. I mean this morning the market sentiment is pretty flat I mean overall the economic calendar is pretty bare today apart from a whole slew of speakers speaking predominantly from this IMF event But everything's pretty flat On a macro top level obviously we had this partial trade deal between US and China this time last week, but interestingly, you know, if you kind of remove yourself out of that that story Think about what we've had this week We've had US retail sales the worst since February we had industrial production in the US declined sharply yesterday for the month of September We've had Chinese GDP come out overnight weakest growth in 27 and a half years six percent Point one weekend expected that the German government come out yesterday revised their economic growth forecast from next year to one percent from One point one point five percent We are not sure at the moment, you know removing yourself out a lot of these Kind of short-term episodes of volatility that we're seeing the bigger picture here is this economy the global economy is Continuing to weaken at this point now. We know the Fed are gonna cut in October but you know, what's interesting here is that it almost feels like we are continuing to just Grind lower at the moment and it doesn't it feels like This is going largely a little bit unnoticed because the distractions that are coming elsewhere But I think the Fed is actually gonna be particularly interesting at the end of the month not but just because We believe that they're gonna cut interest rates again But I definitely want to get a bit more of a feel for their assessment about what do they feel about these current developments I've just said what do they think about the forward-looking future? I mean there are as I said a number of Fed speakers speaking today and while I'm on that topic Let me just bring it across so you can just see what I'm talking about So here they are You've got Feds Kaplan Feds George Feds Kashkari Clarida You've got Fed officials debating the outlook for the crude market. You got Feds Kaplan again later on in the evening So yeah, lots of Fed speak. I am definitely interested in that But you know not just the Fed of course all the other countries as well Seemingly will have to turn to a more damaged stance. It was seen if we continue in this fashion. So it's a definitely almost You know without the distraction of some of the things like Brexit and the trade war The material weakness in the global economy still continues to be quite evident One thing to be aware of there with the Chinese data Investment growth did weak it was weaker than expected and that was kind of underlying then the the weakness in growth But industrial production did accelerate in September and retail sales was relatively steady. So Importantly with monitoring this Chinese data going forward. Are we getting to this point of bottoming out? It's going to be quite key going forward And partially, you know, hence the reason why you know, see the US have got their own domestic issues to manage The pressure on the farming industry to cut that agricultural deal on upfront purchasing of their goods from China But also to just keep that momentum behind the the placement of the stock market and the level of unemployment for Trump And then from China, of course, they too need to Be sure that they can counter at the fact that Q3 GDP growth is the weakest in almost three decades at the moment So, you know, they've got much also at risk at this point in time Okay, gonna quickly look at earnings just some other things to look out for today You do have before the open coca-cola American Express and Schlumberger There are other companies, but I'd say those are the three biggies to have a look out for If I quickly jump over to my earnings calendar here, I'll give you a snapshot So you've got all the numbers if it's a bit small. I'll put it in the chat room Timings wise you've got coca-cola 1155 Schlumberger is at 12 amex is at 12 30 In terms of EPS coke expected 62 amex two dollars and three And Schlumberger is spettered at 35 cents earnings per share On the calendar then as I said very quiet now in terms of data In fact, there is really nothing coming out today So all the more reason why the market will probably draw attention from the speaker slate the Brexit developments because don't forget that EU Council summit is in day two, so they are meeting entirely throughout the day I guess thinking out of the box Europe either play hardball and they start saying actually there is no extension So you have to get this deal done now parliament So they could do the pressure that way or the alternative could be they come back you know, what if they say just to Give Boris another little help me a little bit of help to get it over the line another type or form of concession I see that's highly unlikely that could help then appease some of these other members that is truly is it a deal worth voting for But I think that's that's not going to be the case So definitely be aware a lot of people speaking These are all though in the afternoon the council summit is going on Throughout the day, but the IMF meeting is happening in the States So it's going to be hence the reason why the mostly speakers are a scheduled London time into the afternoon All right, that's it from me Final thing I want to say If you go on our YouTube channel I was looking at our YouTube channel the other day on the analytics And I do know that a lot of the people at least a third who watch these briefings are not subscribed to our channel So if I can ask you to subscribe to the channel, that'd be great And one thing to reiterate is that you know take one of the videos here People ask me questions. I will always reply to them And so on so that's what we're here to do So feel free if you ever have any questions just to put them on the videos If you haven't seen it last week this time last week. I did a really excellent video Or like an interview so it's not me talking about markets It's me talking to peers our head of trading and it was all about lessons. He learned from his biggest loss I've had a lot of good feedback on that video people found it incredibly useful. So if you do get It's only 20 minutes over the weekend definitely worth a watch All right, that's it. Let me hand you over to sam and have a good session and a great weekend. Thanks guys Hi guys Let's clear my my throat there. We'll have a quick look over to begin with I guess with the pound You can see some levels here marked up on the on the old daily chart and up to Test just remove that rectangle there You can see some of the levels we had back in may before we broke down It pretty much to the tick of course predicting exactly where we were going to stop yesterday with have been pretty tricky However, let's have a look more At today's price section We're just having to go at trying to get above the pivot 129 in the mix there as well You've also got the high that we had back on Wednesday. I quite like the look here of this trend On the market as it comes through Yeah, something like this and it while it might actually start from the lower the 14th You can see just over the last few trading days, of course, these lows are getting higher. We're getting squeezed to the top Yes, the fundamentals are at play, but we haven't had a break below it. So if we were Um heading into the weekend, you know, do people want to stay long over the weekend? Especially if this idea of this deal not going to be passed through parliament Then we've got a you would say come back lower and then obviously you've got some really key areas of support to be aware of from each day as well and obviously the breakthrough that we had On the 11th so this time last week as well. So some key levels to the downside that would be keeping an eye on I don't personally think it's really worth the risk of holding a new trade over the weekend. Obviously if you're heavily long The risking I think would be the right thing to do Just having a look as well to the upside you can see if we can get above the the high from Birthday Wednesday as well. They're just the levels from yesterday evening And then up towards 130 again could be in play the euro yesterday helping It's move higher thanks to the idea that this deal Is getting closer to being agreed across the board. However, just drifting down overnight But relatively flat a couple of areas to be aware of this of course with the euro just be any of these previous highs I would say Worth keeping an eye on just have a look is that there you go. This is quite nice here Just spotting this here the high of Wednesday the low afternoon and then we're just respecting that now So a little line in the sand Perhaps we'll be at diagonally to keep an eye on going forward And then we would just be looking at any of the previous lows and highs from Yesterday day before and and so on that I'll be looking for As well to find some support much like we had Yesterday you can see where we broke through the higher the 11th came back and Really this sort of time yesterday before that push to the upside probably worth having a look as well At these most recent highs have we got a trend? you can see Pretty good one two three. So yeah market looking that on the 15 minutes So again break of that to the upside could be a half decent opportunity having to look over at the the s&p obviously The volume is really going to be in the afternoon But the DAX is actually leading the way here and so you would expect looking pretty similar in price section from this morning and as well This get these trend lines on that could well be another third test coming in just before that pivot point As well. What has been a really key? We'll call it a zone of support previous resistance You've got the the highs from the 15th morning and the 14th morning that coming in And then matching up with the lows that we had from Wednesday and Thursday as a zone 82 29 82 to 85 would be a key level I'll be keeping a close watch on as we go into the back end of the week And then of course if that was to come into play We'd expect some decent support to come in and if that was one to break then I would say Not out the question to get a finished lower into Round sort of 29 77 73 However stocks at the moment, you know, it's not kid ourselves We are still pretty high overall to send a quick look flash over the daily chart still not far from those all-time highs Can we get above this trend line then be looking at highs from yesterday? Obviously the round number the 3000 will be one to to keep a close watch on As well quick look over at what that tax is doing and how this could drag the s&p Higher I would say your key zone is the higher of the day. We've had some nice price action Yes, they won two three before that break down into the afternoon We then hit it on the retest this morning in the early hours during the asian trade So we're keeping a watch what happens around 12,666 Spooky number pivot as well looks pretty key price action from yesterday. So they're matching up quite nicely So I keep keeping a watch on that have a quick look over some of the commodities gold to begin with pivot Just acting as resistance. I'll tell you what gold's been a fantastic market It has to be said to to trade recently really nice. I mean look at this break of the low comes back retest resistance I mean that magic 1492, which you know, I like I mean what a market look at how good that's resistance up at the top has been lovely range great break equities pushing higher Well, what an opportunity bit annoyed. I missed that But yeah, you can see here it and what we've what I've said the last few Briefings, I'm just not sure on the overall direction of gold to be honest medium term I mean obviously at the moment if we can break through 1491 some nice price action over the last couple of days then why can't we then drift down to towards the s1 But certainly medium term I'm not too sure. I'm not too sure. You're going to argue there's some dollar weakness to boost it Then you've got equities going higher Sort of there perhaps in a bit of a consolidation period where it doesn't necessarily know Which what what it wants to do and if we squeeze this out It might be worth even having a look at How squeezed are we getting in nice trend line here starting on the first that we know about we had the false break on the 16th and Potentially for the upside you're going to want to see a real big pushing A confirmed break above 1500 to the upside there as well One to keep an eye on any way and also from the highs if we were to get back above the pivot You know, I'll be looking to have some of these trends on as well But really nice market the way it's been moving I have to say over the last couple of weeks Oil having a little go at trying to push above 54 dollars on the futures and you can see here we Broke out the range that have been holding just so firm Since what's the 14th say that be Wednesday Thursday Wednesday Tuesday Monday afternoon really nice area again for oil which Looks like it's been trading nicely this morning breakthrough I'll be looking at the pivot as obviously is a key point. I mean the high that we had back on The 15th has been tested to the tick and I'm sure some people are in that for a long I think obviously if it was to come back down again Maybe on the third test you would prefer to wait a bit lower down and the pivot area could be that point But like or like gold has been behaving quite nicely It has to be said even yesterday post do ease if we have a quick look at What was the higher the day you get the breakthrough come back retest? You know, you're offside for two ticks. I think you can take that before a really nice move To the upside just above where we're trading. We're kind of now on the break point where we broke lower early trade this morning Around 5408 we're knocking on the door there a bit of a mini range between 84 to the downside And then 08 I'd be interested to see if we can get a break above there to target the overnight and yesterday's Hi as usual any questions, please do let us know If not, though, I hope you have a good trading day and an even better weekend