Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the webinar of Decarbonizing the Power Sector for Southeast Asia, hosted at the International Conference for Sustainable Development. OK, thank you for enabling the chat. We now have 50 people with us. Can you tell us through the chat which countries you are from, please? OK, whilst you are telling us where you are from, we will proceed to introduce the webinar. So this webinar is about Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia is important in the global climate change action for two reasons. Number one, it is one of the fastest growing regions in the world because of its population growth, economic development, and urbanization. Rapid growth of the electricity demand is driven by the growing ownership of household appliances and air conditioners, as well as increasing consumption of goods and services. Reason number two is that this is a region that is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The current power supply mix in Southeast Asia is dominated by fossil fuels, such as coal and oil. And these are major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. Now, to develop and reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the same time, Southeast Asia needs to increase its urgency and ambition in decarbonizing its power supply. So investing in renewable energy, energy efficiency, grid infrastructure, interconnection, carbon capture, and storage is the way forward. Southeast Asia needs to invest about US$210 billion a year, leading up to 2050 to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This investment is more than 2.5 times the amount that countries have currently planned to reach their goals. So the need for meaningful planning and effective implementation is clear. And this is what the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network sets out to encourage and mobilize. For example, it's ASEAN Green Future Project, which is a multi-year collaboration with Climate Works Center and researchers from leading universities and think tanks across Southeast Asia, builds an analytical foundation for inclusive regional power decarbonization. This project strengthens regional knowledge sharing and helps ASEAN member states to design and implement better green transformation of their economies. It also enables collective engagement with decision makers across Southeast Asia to translate evidence from analysis into targeted and measurable actions. Today, we are honored to have four ASEAN Green Future researchers here with us to share how their countries are decarbonizing the power sector. The power sector encompasses all activities related to the production, transmission, distribution, and consumption of electricity. They are Dr. San Vibol from the Royal University of Nampen in Cambodia, Professor Arlene Halimatu-Sadia from the University of Indonesia in Indonesia, Professor Bandit Linne Chokchai from Thammasat University in Thailand, and Yang Bo-Hor-Mat Duan Li-Chien-Chung, Member of Parliament of Petaling Jaya in Malaysia. These four countries make up more than 80% of the electricity consumption in Southeast Asia. ASEAN Green Future country teams received training from the Stockholm Environment Institute on the low emission analysis platform leap in March, April, and May this year. During a four-day workshop in Bangkok, country teams came together to collaboratively build a regional power sector model under the guidance of SEI. Post-workshop, the country teams continue to improve their country's power sector model and developed the existing policy and more ambitious policy scenarios focusing on the demand and supply of electricity. Key learning points will be presented today. We will begin with Cambodia. Cambodia has been enjoying remarkable economic growth and development since the end of civil war and political instability in the late 1990s. Cambodia has been a fast mover in embracing the renewables. Last year, RE capacity share in Cambodia was 52%. Hydro power is the dominant contributor followed by solar and bioenergy. The country has successfully used solar-based mini grids to lift much of the rural population out of poverty and accelerate social economic progress. However, the dependency on hydropower makes the kingdom vulnerable to seasonal variations in water levels and climate change, as demonstrated by the daily power outages in many parts of Cambodia in 2019. To maintain its momentum as one of the fastest growing countries in Southeast Asia, Cambodia will be importing coal power from Laos to meet its electricity demand in 2030. Let us now hear from Dr. San Vibhul from the Royal University of Nongpen on the opportunities and challenges for decarbonizing the power sector in Cambodia. The floor is yours, Dr. San Vibhul. Good morning, everyone. It is my pleasure to be here to present about the decarbonization of the United States of Cambodia. Vibhul, your sound is breaking up. Yeah. Hello, hello. Are you OK? We can hear you, but it's not clear. How about Justin, can you hear Vibhul clearly? It is so unclear for me. Vibhul, if you have an earphone with mic I think that might be clear. OK, so about that. OK. Hello. Yes, OK, that is great now. And Vibhul, you want to share your slides, right? Not the Word document. Oh, actually, sorry. Sorry. OK. Is it OK? Yes. OK. Sorry, it's a technical problem. So again, good morning, everybody. So I'm happy to be here to present about the energy transitions in Cambodia. I mean, the current state of energies and policy. So as you already mentioned, energy is a player important role in economic development in every country, and also energy is one of the most greenhouse gas emissions emitters in the world. And it's quite, I mean, the government have worked a lot to ensure that the greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced from the energy sectors in the future. So this is the content of my presentation today. So I will start with the interactions. And then the energy profile of Cambodia, Jung have already summarized a little bit about that. So I will try to add something more. And we go a little bit faster because of the time. So and then I will present a little bit about the greenhouse emissions from energy sector Cambodia. The first one is the current state of renewable energy in Cambodia and clean energy potentials and opportunities. Government policy initiative, I just want to show some policy that the government have in order to promote the energy transition, especially renewable energy in Cambodia to the use of greenhouse emissions. And last but not least is energy challenges in Cambodia because we have a lot of policy. But still we could not do whatever we want to do because there's a lot of challenges that we are facing and we need to deal with it. So Cambodia economy experienced rapid expansion from 1999 to 2018 ranking among the world's fastest growing economies with an average annual growth rate of 8%. This growth was primarily driven by sectors such as government exports, agriculture, and tourism. The government have placed a strong emphasis on maintaining social stability and have set a goal to transform Cambodia into technology driven upper middle income country by 2030. However, the outbreaks of the COVID-19 pandemic have a significant impact on the country's economic progress. In 2020, Cambodian GDP is constructed by 3.1% reflecting the economic downturn caused by the pandemic. Nevertheless, the country demonstrated resilience and rebounded with a growth rate of 3.1% in 2021. To support economic development, construction, and the real estate sectors have placed a crucial role in boosting a foundational growth industry. Looking ahead, Asian Development Bank, ADB focused a positive trajectory for Cambodian economies projecting a growth rate of 5.3% in 2022 and 6.2% in 2023. So sustained economic growth in Cambodia have resulted in a significant rise in energy demand. Over the period from 2010 to 2019, the total primary energy supplies experienced a substantial increase of 64% going from more than 190 Terazul to more than 300 Terazul. Cambodian economy supply rely heavily on biomass counting for 45% of the total primary energy supply in 2019. Within the biomass sector, more than 40% was utilized for residents of cooking and heating purposes, while another 40% was used in the production of charcoal primary consumed by households. Approximately 50% of biomass was utilized in industrial applications. The remaining 55% of the total primary energy supply is composed of imported oil and coal, notably around 87% of petroleum is consumed in the transportation sector. Transport sector VAR coal accounts think for a rapidly increased 40% of total primary energy supply. It's primary use for power generation with 3% being used in the industry. This search in coal usage can be attributed to the implementation of two coal fire power plants in Presley and Will's province between 2014 and 2017, which aim to be used to realize on the, sorry. Yeah, something wrong. I mean, primary use for generating with 3% being used in the industry. This search in coal usage can be attributed to the implementation of two coal fire power plants in Presley and Will's province between 2019 to 2017, which aim to be used to rely on oil-based power generation accounting to the government plan. So there is a reason why the coal power plant was introduced in Cambodia, because the government have planned to use the dependencies on the oil. So let me start with the energy profile in Cambodia. So I would like to draw your attention to the graphs, which showcase a remarkable trend in the capacities of power sources in Cambodia over the past 15 years. In 2008, the capacity stood at 490 megawatt. And Cambodia have seen a tremendous increase to an impressive more than 4,000 400 megawatt in 2022. This substantial growth signifies a remarkable progress in expanding the Cambodian power infrastructure. So allow me to present you the information from the table which provide insightful data on power sources in Cambodia for the years 2021, 2022, and the plan in year for 2033. The power generation divided into two categories, domestic generation, as you can see is the important power sources. Let's start with the domestic generation. In 2021, Nandiniobonagis accounted for approximately 41% of the total power generated, which slightly decreased to a little bit more than 38% in 2022. But this projected to increase significantly to almost 60% in 2023. Within the Nandiniobonagis, coal contributed to the majorities, making up more than 35% in 2021, and also the same. The percentage is almost the same in 2022. And it's expected to contribute more than 54% in 2023. Purely I play a small role in the Nandiniobonagis mix. On the other hand, the Nandiniobonagis sources contributed for more than 58% of the total domestic generations in 2021, which increased to a little bit more than 61% in 2022, but it's anticipated to increase to more than 40% in 2023. The primary source for renewable energy were hydropowers, as Jung had already mentioned. However, solar powers and biomass also play an important role in the renewable energy shares. Hydropower have the largest shares followed by, because we have more than 50% of the hydropower. So it's a huge share compared to the solar powers and biomass and power. In terms of the total domestic generation, we witnessed an increase from more than 9,000 kilowatt hours in 2021 to more than 10,000 kilowatt hours in 2022. And we expect to further grow to more than 12,000 kilowatt hours in 2023. So let me tell you a little bit more about the current status of renewable energy in Cambodia. In the remarkable achievements as of 2022, over 55% of the country's domestic energy product is derived from the renewable energy. This milestone reflects Cambodian state fast commitment to sustainable and environmentally friendly energy generation. The backbone of this, as you can see on the graph, of this renewable energy success story is hydropower, which contributes an impressive more than 50% to the overall energy mix. While the hydropower is renewable, it does remain slightly controversial due to its environmental impacts with issues such as the flooding of large areas and the blockings of these migrations, as well as forced invictions. This concern will undoubtedly affect the immediacy of mine and energy, halting all hydropower on the main Mekong rivers until 2030, which have stored the growth of hydropower to a degree. Other concerns with the hydropower include the lack of water during the dry season. The reason record low water levels in general. The impact other hydropower dam for the rivers could have, notably the potential dam in Luang Prabang's lab. Regardless of the controversies, it will continue to increase shares of power generation in Cambodia and development on the other tributaries continues. In addition to hydropower, solar and biomass have also made significant contribution to Cambodian renewable energy portfolio. Solar accounts for approximately 7% of the country's domestic energy products. Cambodian favorable climates and ample sunshine make it an ideal environment for harnessing solar energy. So this is the map of hydropower in Cambodia. In 2006, Cambodia identified 60 potential hydropower sites capable of generating more than 1,000 megawatts of power. Half of these sites were on the Mekong River. So 40% on tributaries and 10% in the southwest. So you can see here now the Ministry of Minergy stop approving more hydropower dams on the Mekong River. So at least we still have like a 40% from on the tributaries and 10% in the south. So we have a 50% for the hydropower development in the future. So Cambodia have set ambitious goal to further expand its renewable energy capacity. By 2023, the country have planned to add more than 495 megawatts of electricity generation from seven new solar power plants. Increasing solar power share to 20% of in-store capacity. Looking ahead to 2030, Cambodia aim to have more than 1,800 megawatts of solar energy integrated into its national grid. This target demonstrate Cambodia commitment to sustainable power generation and its determination to harness the full potential of solar energy resources. So this is the biomass. As I already mentioned in the introduction, biomass is abundant resources in Cambodia. And I mean, especially for the rural people, they use the biomass for cooking, boiling water, or sometimes they use it for, I mean, protect animals from insects as well. And biomass is the main source for producing charcoal as well. However, it has a huge impact on the different areas because the people cut down the tree to feed into the kins. And we consume a lot of charcoal, especially the people in the urban area. So let me try to tell you a little bit more about the, I mean, the energy emissions from the energy sector. So because of the run-out of time, so I will go quickly. So as you can see, here is the graph. So I mean, the CO2 emission from the energy sector in Cambodia from 1995 to 2018. As you can see, the resident solar sector have the second highest emission among all sector. And the transportation sector have the highest emission overalls, recording more than 6,000 in 2018. In 2018. So here is the historical emission from the sea generation. The primary sources of direct greenhouse emission from the electricity generation in Cambodia were people always. Even it, I mean, it's just a small shares of the total electricity generation, but it emits a lot of greenhouse emission. People always and coal between minors. Fuel and oil emissions show an increase from more than 120 kiloton of oil equivalent in 2019 to more than 250 kiloton of oil equivalent in 2018. And coal from more than 3,000 in 2017 into, it decreased a little bit in 2018, but still a lot compared to the other sectors. So actually, I want to tell you a little bit about the clean energy potential opportunity in Cambodia, but because of time, so it just goes a little bit faster. But solar energy, I mean, clean energy is important and it has numerous opportunities in the realm of the clean energy in Cambodia. And solar energy continues a little bit to the total electricity generation, but it has a huge impact. For example, like it was estimated at 60 gigawatt hours and new lease. So this means that the country possesses abundant solar resource with up to eight hours of sunlight per day. So in addition to the solar powers, hydro powers, you know, types and high promising renewable energy sources in Cambodia, especially in the coastal area. The biomass energy also have a huge potential in Cambodia because we have a lot of fresh areas and we have a huge agricultural residual like Arihas, Kasawa, Kukunats, and any more waste. So over 25,000 biogad adjuster has been constructed in the rural area in 2016. So biogad adjuster is the most important especially for the rural area and it can help to be used by a mass consumption in the rural area. So let me try to tell you a little bit about the government policies and initiatives in energy sectors in Cambodia. So the government social economic policy agenda for 2018 to 2023 and clean the provisions of adequate affordable and reliable electricity. And recently the government also have the, we call it pentagonal strategic phase one. We just relive and buy the new government so it will start implementations from this year. So we also have the electricity law into 2001. So the law cover generation transmission distribution and utilization of electricity energy. I mean to meet Cambodian growing energy demand effectively, efficiently, and reliably. Irreliable, reliably. It emphasizes energy efficiencies and conservation major promoting and adapting of efficient technologies and practice. This law introduced key component that govern the operation of power sectors. It established principle for power industry operation include the condition for competitions, private investment, private ownership and commercial operations. In addition, the electricity law defined the role and function of two key entities, electricity authorities of Cambodia and DC of mine and energy. I mean, EAC is responsible for regrettings and overseeing the power sectors, ensuring compliance with the laws and promoting fair competition. While the Ministry of Mine and Energy play a crucial role in formulating policy setting strategic directions and providing overall guidance for energy sector in Cambodia. So in 2009, the Ministry of Mine and Energy of Cambodia took a significant step forward in ensuring the reliable energy supply by using the Cambodian basics energy plans. The plan was developed with the key principle in mind, including affordability, accessibility, security, safety, and transparency. So in March 2018, a national energy efficiency policy was officially launched, which focuses on adapting energy efficiency to drive a strong reference and competitive economy while promoting sustainable development. At the same time, power development master plan was also released. The PDP 2020-2024, which outlined the long-term vision of Cambodian power sector development. The PDP set several key objectives, including meeting future power demand, enhancing energy security, and increasing the shares of clean energy sources. This is the newest master plan. And it showed the ambitious of the government to promote the clean energy to reuse a green-up gas emission in Cambodia. So we also have the national cooling action plan, which is a strategic roadmap designed to address the environmental and social impacts of the increasing cooling demand driven by economic growth, urbanization, and climate change. I mean, we also adapt the resource efficiencies and cleaner production in Cambodia also. I mean, the implementation of WIC has been impressed across the various sectors. For example, in the right-milling industry, REC's strategy has been applied to address the issues of the right-hast. And also, this applies to the PDM implemented by the UNIDO. We also have the long-term strategy for carbon neutrality, which is a roadmap designed to guide Cambodian towards achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. This comprehensive strategy outlines specific action to reduce the CO2 emissions across the various sectors to mitigate the impact of climate change. We also have the new law investment promoted in October 2021, provides additional tax incentives to green energy producers. The green energy producers are able to register as a qualified investment project and are one of the sectors to be incentivized. The law offers a different option for basic incentives, but the likely the most common use include the income tax assumption. So even though we have a lot of policies and the government puts a lot of commitment into promoting the new warranty and clean energy in Cambodia, but still we face a lot of challenges. For example, one of the main challenges is Cambodia electricity demand for CPL. I mean, Cambodia has indeed undergone significant population and economic growth in the recent years, leading to a substantial increase in electricity demand. These growth have put the pressures on the energy sectors to meet the rights need of the industrial business and household. So electricity supply and power system is also one of the main challenges. I mean, Cambodia electricity that works faces stability issues leading to frequently power cut. However, the necessaries investment to prevent this power cut have not been met. The state-owned land utilities, electricity do is composed or they say was supposed to invest 600 million in infrastructure upgrade over the past five years, but have failed to meet this target. Inefficient investment have contributed to ongoing problem with electricity network. To address this issue, Cambodia need to prioritize and accelerate investment in its power systems. Electricity price is also challenges. Because Cambodia, I mean, face challenges with high and volatiles power cost, impacting both households and businesses in 2020's electricity price in the country reached both their loft and highest levels in the past 15 years, indicating the significant influx in price. Comparing to its service Asian neighbors, Cambodia electricity tariff are generally highest. These disparities can be attributed to the various factor including the country relatively small scale power generation and transmission in fast structures, higher production cost and limited energy diversifications. Climate challenge, please, also is one of the main challenges in Cambodia as well. So we have the other challenges as well, including the inefficient funding, scale level shortage and policy framework. Even though we have a lot of policy, but still the implementations, the clear, I mean, comprehensive policy framework is still the question. And also another thing is that the coordination between the in line ministry is still a big problem. Sometimes they don't really want to work together in order to solve the same problem. We just, sometimes they have the interest of, I mean, a conflict between among the ministry. So that's all for my presentation today. So I'm sorry about, because I prepared a lot of slides and I just realized this morning that I have only 16 minutes, but now it's already 13 minutes, so. Thank you very much, Dr. Vibhol, for your very comprehensive assessment of the power sector decarbonization in Cambodia. What you have shared is inspiring and you can see in the Q&A box, one of our audience has asked, how might Cambodia have any other advice for her country, which is Indonesia? All right, we'll now move on to Indonesia. Indonesia has 26% of the electricity consumption in Southeast Asia and they are the largest consumer of electricity in the region. Its energy transition is essential to achieving the region's climate goals. The country has made significant progress in developing renewable energy in recent years and the government is committed to improve energy efficiency. The Just Energy Transition Partnership that Indonesia entered into last year will provide significant financial and technical support to Indonesia's energy transition. Let us now hear from Professor Alin Halimatu-Sadia from the University of Indonesia. Alin, the floor is yours. Thank you, Professor Rihon Yonong for your kind introduction. Let me share my screen to go up. Okay, can you see my screen? Yes, we can. Okay, in the full screen, yeah? Okay. It's currently in... No. It's not very... I will try again. I will try again. Sorry. Okay, there is a suggestion from Mustafa. Say, please swap display. It used to work. Okay. Yes. Okay. Now it works. Great. Okay, so I will present our work on how to decarbonise Indonesia power sector. So we are very thankful to USDSN to provide us capacity building and also the assist us in the analysis of this work. So first, I would like to present the current state of Indonesia's power sector where energy sector contribute as the largest GHC emission about almost 35% in 2019. And within the energy sector, the electricity generation contributes more than 30% to the emission. And it becomes the biggest emission contributor within the energy sector. And if we look at the demand side, most of the electricity demand come from residential and after that industry. And for the last two decades, it's almost like triple, more than triple there. And if we look at the supply side where the electricity demands are covered from. So if we look at the supply side, most of the electricity comes from the coal fire power plant. So we see the sharp increase in the coal fire power plants from only 36% in 2002, almost 60% in 2019. So it become our homework in decarbonising the power sector. And currently we have several decarbonisation scenario some of the decarbonisation scenario embedded in more broader plan like net zero emission for all sectors. So what we shown here is only for electricity. So we have, for example, like LTS-LCCR in 2021, we issued a long-term strategy for low carbon development in Indonesia. And this document is already submitted to the UNFCCC and it become our commitment to decarbonise the economy as a whole. And in this document, we just look at the electricity sector and we compare it with other document because aside from LTS-LCCR, we also have EIA who also produce a document to decarbonise energy sector. And the next one, LCDI Indonesia issued by BAPNAS, the National Development Planning Agency. And we have EROKAN. EROKAN here is the National Electricity Planning and some of the non-government institution also produce the model showing the trajectory of decarbonisation such as ISR and also the Asia Society Policy Institute and IRENA also make some models to show the potential decarbonisation. So with some kind of mapping from these seven documents in the electricity sector what the strategy we should have and then the target. And we see from these seven documents, they have maybe slightly different strategies and also assumption. Like for example, in LTS-LCCR, the electricity demand growth 5.5% per year while in EAR model, they assume the demand increase by 7%. So and also in specific strategy, for example, for transport in LTS-LCCR, we assume the share of electric transport will be 30% by 2050 while in other scenario, yeah. It can be 45% here. So for 45%, even in LCCDI, they assume 100% in the adoption by 2050 and yeah, so we can see the different of the strategy achieving net zero emission. And if we look at the share of renewables in these seven documents, we will see also difference work where for example, ISR assume that in 2050, the electricity will come from renewables, all the electricity will come from renewables and from the document of LCCDI 85% and then us be almost 198%, yeah, 83%. And we see, for example, from the document LTS-LCCR, we only have 43.5% of renewables and we still have a full end guess here because in the document, the net zero emission is for all sectors. So we depend on other sectors to reduce or absorb the emission. So we optimize the absorption or emission from the full sector. That's why in LTS-LCCR, we have quite high fossil fuels in 2050. And then we make a scenario building for the study. We make two scenarios, existing policy scenarios and high ambition scenario for macroeconomic assumption. We follow a shared socio-economic pathways or SSB-2 for middle, sorry, yeah, for middle of the road. So we put like some kind of moderate assumption for this macroeconomic indicators, population GDP growth, yeah. And then for demand sector, for residential, for lighting, we make the same scenario for existing and high ambition scenarios. But for cooking, we have quite different scenario where, for example, in urban household, we expect the electricity from cooking rose by 25% in 2050 for existing policy while in the high ambition policy, we assume 75%, yeah. And then for rural household, only 10% in existing policy while in the high ambition policy for rural, we assume 60% and for the overall share of electric cooking for urban household, reach 90%. For refrigeration, air-conditioning and cooling, we use the same scenario for existing and high ambition policy. And then for transport, we put different scenario, for example, in 2050, the existing policy scenario only aims for 50% by 2050, but in high ambition policy, we hope we can reach 100%. For the industry, for the existing policy scenario, we use historical trends, but for high ambition policy, we expect to have 55% industry sector electrified by 2019-60, and then for service, we use the same scenario and for agriculture, we use historical trend for existing policy scenario, but for high ambition policy, we aims for almost 30%, yeah, the share of electricity from this sector. And then for the supply sector in power generation, we follow the business use as usual scenario in the Erokaen or National General Electricity Plan. This is the document published by the government that showed the trajectory of power generation from 2023 until 2060, but in the existing policy scenario, we take it from this, but from business as usual scenario. So early retirement of coal-fired power plant is not implemented. But for high ambition scenario, we follow the net zero emission using the same document with 100 renewable energy share by 2060. So this is the result. So first, I would like to discuss the electricity demand by sector residential, agriculture and fishing, service, industry and transport. And we see quite different projects demand, yeah, the high ambition pathway demand is more than double, yeah, more than double than existing policy pathway because of electricity in increasing electricity demand from the industry sector as well as the transportation sector. And then from the direct emission, yeah, this is the previous one is for the demand for electricity. And then this is for the emission. We see different trajectory also and different level of emission over time, where we expect to reduce lower emission for the high emission pathway and the reduction is mostly come from the transport and also the industry. And then for power generation mix because of the demand for electricity more than double. So we expect to have electricity generation production or capacity also much higher for high ambition pathway than existing policies pathway. And it will come mostly from the solar PV, high draw and also we assume only use nuclear here to serve the demand, yeah. While in the existing policy, we also use solar but not as much as high emission pathway and much less hydro and no nuclear power plant. And for the emission from the power sector because we assume that renewables don't emit any emission which is it becomes also our limitation. So we assume that the emission only in the power sector only comes from the coal gas and diesel. So this is the pathway for the emission in the power sector for existing policies compared to high emission pathways. We expect no emissions comes from fossil fuels in 2016 because we assume 100% of renewables in that time. And then the emission results from demand and supply. We assume no emission from the supply side in the 2016, yeah. But in the for high ambition pathway but for existing policies pathway we still reduce emission from the supply side but from the demand side because not all sectors use the power sector because our model is only limited to the power sector. So we still have, for example, transport that use fossil fuels and then industry still use coal. So we still have or we still generate emission from the demand side that still use coal gas and diesel for their fuels. So we made this reflection for our exercise using the LEAP model first is the model has not include resource constraint. Maybe that's why, for example, for hydro we produce like quite large share for hydro while maybe in other models the portion of hydro is less and the portion of solar PV is much more, yeah. And then the next one is no direct emission for renewable power plant. And also we assume energy efficiency potential for cooling and refrigeration is omitted while it can be quite significant maybe. And then the next one is power mix target under existing policy is unsuitable. And for potential model improvement we suggest that we need to have more exercise on sub-national modeling, yeah. And how it will be aligned with the national model because in Indonesia we have this regulation to the province level they should make a route, yeah. The energy planning at the local level at the sub-national level and not all local government provide this planning document. So I think we need to also increase our capacity at the local level to be able for them to make some kind of modeling and then reduce this energy planning documents. And we need also for potential model improvement we need to improve granularity by more this agreemention and then also employing optimization method with this resource one train. And regarding the increasing our national capacity in energy transition modeling we only have about half of sub-national air aid targets in RUET that are lower than national target. So we have to push actually the local government to make more ambitious target, yeah, of renewables, yeah. Because the alignment of national and sub-national is very important. And we also have to make the modeling process is more participative, so we have to encourage participatory approach in developing the scenario, what kind of policy it is actually feasible economically and politically, yeah. And then also we have to, I think we should promote open model and open data to make the model more credible and also make other stakeholders participate in developing the model. And then I think we need also regional cooperation in developing regional model, so high participation and new opportunity to reduce GHI emission will come from this. Okay, thank you. Thank you very much, Dr. Alin for a very clear articulation of what you all have done in phase 2.1 and for listing out the limitations of the model and how you all plan to improve it moving forward. And it is good to hear you highlighting the importance of sub-national modeling and alignment with national model and the importance of co-developing scenario and models with the stakeholders. Thank you very much. All right, moving on, we will now come to Thailand. Thailand has 19% of the electricity consumption in Southeast Asia and they are the third largest electricity consumer in the region after Vietnam. During COP26 in 2021, Thailand committed to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2065. Two years ago, 66% of Thailand's power generation mix was covered by natural gas and 17% by coal while low carbon sources provided only 12%. Electricity accounts for 35% of the energy sector's carbon emissions. Thailand has also implemented energy efficiency programs for buildings and industry. However, the country also plans to build four new coal-fired power generators by 2034. Hence, a rapid scale-up of clean generation will be needed to align Thailand's power sector development with the country's climate commitments. Let us now hear from Professor Bandit Limit Chok Chai from Thammasat University in Thailand. Professor, the floor is yours. Thank you, Professor Deon Jung. For Thailand, we have two research institutes working on Arsene Greenfield here. Today, I would like to present the task to Taiwan for high ambition. Let's see the situation of Thailand for demographic and macroeconomic formation. The population of Thailand now is about 70 million without it and with growth rate very low, 0.8%. We are now facing the problem of aging society from the current year to the next year and long-term future. For domestic production, the total GDP in 2018 is around US$1,172 billion. Without it, the growth rate of GDP from the year 1995 is around 3%. This is not so bad. I will come back to the national greenhouse gas inventory. The greenhouse gas is increasing only 1.9%. This information shows that Thailand is one of some countries in Arsene that can decouple economic growth from using fossil fuel. Even we still have a lot of infrastructure using fossil fuel like Professor Deon Jung mentioned. For any consumption, you can see that the middle column shows you that industry and transport are the majority, approximately around 39%, 37%, depending on some year. Total final consumption by sector, the middle column, the bottom column shows you that natural gas, almost half of the fuel used in Thailand. For the right column shows you the next generation in 2018. You can see that natural gas used for the next generation is very high, 57%. This is lower than in the past 10 years. The share of natural gas is almost 80%, which is very vulnerable because half of natural gas, we have to import, not domestic resource. In terms of in-house gas emissions, the right column at the bottom, you can see that industry and transport share almost equally about 36%, 37%, depending on some year. For the driver for engine demand, the GDP projection for Thailand, we follow S&P2. For population projection also, we use the medium scenario. You can see that population from now decreasing until year 2050 and 2080. For the existing policy, the existing policy here, we have the TVNP or AEDP, updated version still under consideration of the new government because we just have to have the new government this month. We use any FNC plan EEP, the version in 2018 because updated version still under consideration of the cabinet, and power development plan, PDP 2018. The sector, you can see that the sector, we have residential, commercial, industry, transport, and power. Existing policy for RME domain plan, 2018, we tied to UJR, up to 30% by the target year of the plan, that is 2037, that is the target year of the plan. And also we tied to improve any FNC about 30% the energy intensity compared to the base year. For high-emission policy, high-emission policy, we obtained from government target year, that is 2037 to 2060 of existing policy by increasing the share of renewable energy and increasing energy efficiency. Of course, we derived that even high-emission policy, we could not utilize renewable energy to achieve up to 100% due to limitation. Yeah, the result, you can see total final energy demand by sector, you can see that the base year 2018, the target year 2060, you can see that final energy demand increased about 2.2 times. For high-emission policy, we can reduce energy demand by 27%. If you look at the figure in the right column, you can see that the target year for high-emission policy industry, including power generation, have to increase the task force sector at this moment. You can see existing policy show you very high energy demand and in high-emission, the task force sector also have to reduce. In terms of final energy demand by field type, you can see the left, the club show you that in the existing policy, in existing policy, oil consumption increased a lot and followed by electricity power sector. But in high-emission scenario, we have to reduce oil consumption. Electricity generation, of course, we need to chip to use green electricity such as solar, and biomass, and wind. However, we have limitation of using biomass according to the Saudi Ministry of Thailand and also hydro, but increasing hydro power from rail for extension. You can see that existing policy that existing generation have to increase around 2.5 times compared to the base year. Very high hydro power in existing policy and natural gas. In high-emission policy, power generation increase. This is the share of existing generation by field. You can see that in the base year, natural gas share about 57% in existing policy by the year, 2016, the share of natural gas a little bit decreasing. Why share of hydro power mainly import hydro power from now increasing? For high-emission fossil power generation, that means share of natural gas the deal from 48 to 39. And also we need to increase share of biomass power generation, share of solar and wind generation. In terms of greenhouse gas emission in existing sector, you can see that the base year emission in existing sector is around 257 million tons in existing sector in case around 2.1 times. In high-emission policy, you can see that we can deal up to 42%. Up to 42%. This is not net zero emission. Share of gas emission by sector, you can see that in the base year, power sector, time for sector, majority share almost equally in the base year. In the year 2016, existing policy show you that time for sector still very high share. Power sector almost be the same. In high-emission policy, we need to electrify time for sector just as shifting from internal combustion engine to electric vehicle of course power generation in power sector have to be included. Now come to the net zero scenario for the target 2.2. For less real sector, we need to increase the share of efficiency improvement. Especially for writing, use more LED and also we need to improve efficiency in air conditioning. Of course at this moment the Thai government already have building need code. In fact, we have this building need code for long time, almost 30 years but it was at this moment, building need code now become compulsory so that means building construction have to follow building need code. Compatial sector the same as less real sector, we need to follow building need code. After of course, we have to increase the utilization of renewable energy and of course, we have to fade out what you mentioned CO5. At this moment, this year 2020 several CO5 in Thailand now they are CO5 using ammonia of course, what they want from ammonia, that is hydrogen. So they try to deduce emission for CO5 according to NDC of Thailand NDC of Thailand by CO2 deduction, we promise to deduce CO2 by 30%. So now they are cofinding with hydrogen from ammonia however gases for burning ammonia investigated. What issue that mentioned in long term city of Thailand submit to UNFC in CCU CCS, carbon capture deuterization and carbon capture and storage we say that official document of long term city to UNFC mentioned that we try to deuterize by the year 2040. However if Thailand can think of fiscal week and economic fiscal week we will deuterize CCU CCS early in our next year we try to propose the year we need to increase CCS in industry for thousands of sector, we already have the plan the plan new vehicle must be 30% at least by the year 2030, we have to follow that plan this is a very good scenario because if the next scenario we follow a government policy I will resolve that when we present to the prime minister or prime minister of the country can accept that study what we did is the biggest problem of professor Bandit but at this moment we try to make it early to 2035 for power sector the main sector that we need to be decarbonized before other sector because time for sector now is going to be rectified using the train system and electric vehicle building, let's try to also improve efficiency, mainly electric device. In industry we introduce the energy and also rectify the device in industry so the power sector will pay very important role so with that we can start using cc8 by the year 2035 and also buy all energy with cc8 or be cc8 after cc8 by the year 2040 to 2060 this is some different document that we use in analysis of the TAP 2.1 I hope that Thailand can present the TAP as mentioned within the TAP frame thank you very much thank you professor Bandit I'm glad you touched on carbon capture storage and utilization there is a question in the Q&A precisely on CCUS and I think the audience will be glad to hear your views further so we will now move on to our final speaker from Malaysia Malaysia has 15% of electricity consumption in Southeast Asia and it is the fourth largest consumer 28% of Malaysia's GDP is contributed by the energy sector hence the transition from a fossil fuel dependent economy to a high value green economy must be done with foresight and creativity to maximize emission reduction potential economic opportunities cost-effectiveness and social inclusiveness let us now hear from Duan Li Qianqiu member of parliament of Petaling Jaya in Malaysia Hi, good morning everyone fellow participants speakers this is Prof. Yuan Yong just to check if you can see my screen meet me is that alright? Yes we can see okay good I think the formal forum panel speakers have dealt with a very extensive decarbonization effort in respective countries I only focus on the road transport sector so I'll just confine my discussion on this sector but this is a step showed on Malaysia current GHG emission as we can see the energy still constitute the largest segment in terms of emissions followed by transport industry, waste, agriculture and etc in Malaysia it's also fortunate that the Lulu CF did help in removing a lot of emissions in the past but after 2004 Malaysia has also faced mounting and increasing levels of next GHG emissions in our country so back to transport and I would like to begin with the government policy on the existing trajectory is that 15% of the total industry volume for electrified vehicles will be achieved by 2030 another 10,000 vehicle or EV charging points will be ready by 2025 and on top of that 1.5 billion EVs should be on the road by 2040 so this is what the current policies aim to achieve of course on top of that we have also laid out a list of more ambitious policies is a wish list but at the same time hopefully it is also something that is achievable if we look at the modeling which I will share later so we hope to achieve annual sales of 400,000 EVs annually by 2030 secondly by 2030 we should expect 40% of total industry volume or TIV and 100% by 2040 meaning after 2040 under the high ambitious policies no more ICV vehicles that will be sold in Malaysia thirdly 20 million EVs and 17 million electric motorcycles will be ready by 2050 and of course main following government suggestion or recommendation that 10,000 EV charging points should be ready by 2035 that is less than 2 and a half years so let's aim higher and shoot higher so to have more than 10,000 EV charging points by 2035 and 1.2 million by 2050 Malaysia also has biofuel policy with B20 blending target that was planned in 2020 however it was not met so hopefully it can be met by 2025 we are also aggressively promoting public transport where by 2035 we should expect 50% of ownership to urban public transport currently we are at quite a low level as Malaysia is a big car economy so the car ownership is also among the highest so it is challenging to move people to use public transport however it is something that is necessary if we would like to decarbonize our transportation sector while at the same time real transport interstate transport by East Coast rail link and high speed rail connecting Kuala Lumpur in Singapore estimated or it is I mean assume to be ready by 2036 and 2030 respectively rail transportation if we look at the growth rate under assisting policy the K-Ga is on 4.6% we are setting a more ambitious policy where 2023 I mean moving forward it should be an average of 13.2% and after 2030 the growth will slow down to 6% on rail transportation this is also to take into account more rails are being built in Malaysia we have upcoming MRT-3 connecting Kuala Lumpur and neighboring mega cities we have also committed MRT in Penang the northern biggest city in the northern area of Malaysia some are also pursuing some planning on the Borneo side of Malaysia especially at the urban area to have more rail connectivity while bus transportation assisting policy actually put a very low growth rate so I'm putting a more ambitious growth rate since 2018 which is about 4.09% there are some key assumptions here first is the K-Ga of total registered vehicles between 2018 to 2021 is 3.6% the same growth rate applies for our projection in Malaysia active vehicles means the vehicles that are actively on the road and being driven by road tax or the road permits being renewed so they are 65.2% on 2021 the same percentage should apply average vehicle split between car, motorcycle, bus, freight and others also expected to stay the same so to average vehicle kilometer traveled for car or motorbike for commercial freight vehicle for bus all these are local data compiled and tested by our road transport department so all these figures are used to suit local condition I did compare some of these figures with international figures it seems that the average vehicle kilometer travel for car in Malaysia is slightly higher than the world average presumably Malaysia is heavy on car where we really drive a lot compared to other countries whereas for commercial freight vehicle they are also on the high side I mean it can be explained by we are having good road system where trucks and lorries are really managed to travel to almost every corner of the country and last but not least tax higher and drive cars are the smaller types of vehicles are categorized as cars so this is the monitoring where under assisting policy pathway we can see that gasoline will not just stop there and it will continue to grow likewise to these and as the emission of CO2 and other GNG gases are also I mean projected to be high inside with the growth of usage of gasoline and diesel under a more ambitious pathway it seems if the government is determined to have a more green road map usage or consumption of gasoline will be compressed then we move towards 2040 of course it will be accompanied by a higher use of electricity when we see more EVs on the road diesel we shall explain later the growth rate of diesel usage continue to climb because EV only managed to clip the usage and growth of petrol usage but on diesel which is used primarily for heavy vehicles that is no end in using diesel to drive this is a more ambitious policy as you can see the CO2 is also contained and dropped in fact so I'm doing a comparison on the more ambitious pathway we can see there will be net negative usage of gasoline as well as some diesel and net growth of electricity usage of electricity same goes to the net emission of greenhouse gas we are seeing a good progress in reducing CO2 emissions if we have a good map to decarbonise our transportation sector a few points for discussion decarbonising commercial vehicles is critical as I have pointed out just now it is critical because heavy trucks and heavy freight vehicles continue to use diesel so unless we have hydrogen solution or we have hydrogen solution for them they will continue to grow so we need to have a specific policy to decarbonise commercial vehicles taking into consideration of possible technological solution or policy solution my current trajectory will see 22 million active vehicles on the road by 2050 because I project that the cars will continue to grow it's really hard to take cars off the road unless we have good public transportation in long term better urban planning to reduce travelling so I propose an applied policy for passenger cars is necessary for your information in Malaysia there is no end of life policy for cars so you can drive the cars as long as the cars still fit on the road and we need that to accelerate EV transition third point public transportation transition by encouraging buses is critical I am still projecting a very conservative growth on bus as we can see we need to put more buses on the road it seems like quite in line with current government policy so maybe on the highly ambitious scenario we can project a better group on a bus and last but not least can we have higher growth rate on rail transport as I mentioned MRT-3 and other projects are in the pipeline traffic conditions are getting also quite unbearable so that will also induce people to use more rail for long term interstate travelling as well as urban travelling so that's all from me on transportation sector in Malaysia thank you very much thank you very much Chien-Chien for giving us a focus analysis of the transport sector in Malaysia and transport is always either the highest or the second energy consumer in many Southeast Asian countries alright we have actually gone past a very complicated time but we see three hands have been up for a while so let us now invite them first we'll start with Ong Yi-jian Yi-jian you can talk now would you like to articulate your question and we also see BoAdi's hand is up as well BoAdi would you like to speak Africa? while waiting for you to get ready let's see there are some questions here in the Q&A chat box I want to speak I want to speak thank you I'm from Africa I have a lot of projects that are seeking for finance funding, source that's from any of the most of the projects I have in Africa some of them are projects from Malaysia India, Indonesia, Filipino I have major projects in energy infrastructure in other sector biomass even some in Vietnam government I have funding, JVC or SPV or boots sometimes when you want to the investors or the donors or the lenders sometimes they don't want to take up fronts in which the project owners are not ready to pay it is 3 a.m. so I'm looking for if you have anything you can recommend me some of the projects are from some of the projects are from Africa some of the projects are from Asia and Malaysia so I'm looking for links I have a company that's my company so if you can link you can have any investor or any bank that will not take any upfronts I'm ready to submit those projects in billions of dollars so I need a link up thank you very much thank you for your question the nature of projects are very varied hence the type of financing that is suitable for the project varies as well and the source of funding are varied in a general way I'll leave my email address in the chat box I think this question needs to look at more specifically thank you thank you Yijian there are some questions in the Q&A box if our speakers would like to respond to any of them please do so there is a question here the slow progress on decarbonisation is often attributed to the lack of political will which leads to low public awareness and the reverse can also be said to be true for example in 2021 only 57% of the 12,000 respondents to a global survey believe that a political candidate's record and position on climate action act affected their voting decisions so this highlights the need for greater civic engagement so that politicians are increasingly held accountable for their legislative contribution and public investment in climate action so how might Southeast Asian countries increase political will and civic engagement in climate action any takers might you like to comment on this? a quick answer is that apart from personal passion and advocacy work it is important to make sure we have better accountability on climate change agenda so I would suggest to civil society and the climate change watch groups to also monitor the speeches or the policies suggested by politicians so that it can be made known by the public on how much effort each politician has done in decarbonizing the economy and also to introduce more sustainable goals to our future development and besides that regionally I think it is also important for ASEAN to put or to push the green agenda as one of the main priorities apart from seeing the annual meeting it will be good to have more tight meetings discussing and deliberating on some concrete issues I am not saying setting our different goals than what we have patched in our meeting but we can discuss more local issues and that benchmark on it for instance ASEAN power grid ASEAN power grid is so important in ensuring stability and affordability of green electricity however we see little progress in the past so my suggestion is that can we make this one of the top agenda and can we really persuade with concrete goals so that in the next three years five years we would see some very good results from the discussions and meetings thank you thank you Chen Chiung Fibol do you have any thoughts on this? yeah I mean I think ASEAN have done a lot of things we have worked together to find out the way to promote the green energies among each ASEAN member but still every country have their own barriers and problems as well for example like in Cambodia I mean the public awareness should be improved because of the you know the knowledge and the people I mean I can say that the people understand climate change impact but most of them do not know how to reuse or mitigate the emissions from their I mean from their from individually I mean the government have the policies have the regulation but the people really like for example like we have energy efficiencies policy but each household or community do not really have how to do not really have any idea how to do to reuse their energy consumption and they just maybe it's because of their knowledge and because of the lifestyle of them I mean some especially from my experience the rich people in the city they don't care the energy consumption because they said that they have a lot of money so they can spend on the energy consumption every month so they say that I have I use a lot of energy and they are proud of that you know that is the behavior I mean the government should increase or should have the enhance the public awareness of the importance of using the energy consumption household energy consumption or industrial sector as well and the incentive is a big important as well in Cambodia because industrial sector as a household they want to install for example like energy solar energy on the rooftop but I mean from my experience because I have talked to I have one study about the energy rooftop and then I talk to the private sector and they say that it's quite difficult to work with the government to I mean to request or to register to submit the form to request for installing the solar rooftop because they need a lot of time a lot of resource as well and you don't know how to work with it you cannot have it I mean you cannot receive the permission from the government so usually the private sector encourage people not to I mean not to connect to the to the grid to use a standalone solar power so I mean there's a lot of things to do and even the regulation as well is not clear to the people and even they have a regulation but they don't have a really a specific plan for each in line ministries or or industry to follow to to implement it just to show the donor that they have the plans and just want to attract the investor to invest in the energy so it needs a lot of work to do and I think what we can do is each country member country member should have clear policies and implementation is very important as well so just have policies and implement it and improve their commitment and also public awareness is important this is what I can say thank you very much people ok we will now sum up high cost is a barrier to the transition to a low carbon economy as we have heard today because many countries do not have enough resources and developing economies find the challenge particularly steep of course there are also technological challenges in reducing greenhouse gas emissions more efficient ways to store renewable energy still need to be developed to enable its higher penetration in the greed fostering greater political will to decarbonise involves raising awareness of the climate crisis like what we are doing today and thank you very much for your participation it also requires us demonstrating the benefits of meaningful decarbonisation building a coalition of support electing leaders who are supportive of meaningful decarbonisation and ultimately holding leaders accountable the developments decarbonisation the contradictions that we heard today highlights the climate problem cannot be solved exclusively with materialistic solutions because these materialistic solutions do not address the addictive lock of increasing consumption human progress needs to shift from outward which is about consumption and territorial expansion to inward which is about properly establishing the relationship between humans and the universe what you have heard today is the outcome of ASEAN green future project phase 2.1 we are starting phase 2.2 this month where the country models will aim for 100% renewables or to the extent possible as allowed by renewable resources available in each country this scenario will then be used to explore integration across countries to optimise interconnection in ports and exports of renewable or clean energy in AGF phase 2.3 phase 1 of the ASEAN green future project will focus on the key technology and policy opportunities and challenges ahead in our decarbonisation journey so this work can be accessed through the web link that we will now post in the chat room on this note I will thank all the speakers for their hard work in phase 2.1 of ASEAN green future and we thank the audience for coming together today to listen to expand understanding, to ask questions and to discuss and we will keep you posted on the next phase of the ASEAN green future project thank you very much everyone


card number 8 my lovable fascist my lovable fascist Yakuza in the background let's see where this takes us card number 8 Wilbury and the Yakuza less well known than the CIA collusion with Corsican gangsters in France and the U.S. is the U.S. military's use of Yakuza gangs in Japan the Japanese equivalent of the Italian mafia Yakuza syndicates have controlled the rackets in Japan since the early 1900s long allied with the ultra nationalist right Yakuza thugs provide the muscle which suppressed the left and kept fascists in power during World War two after the war Japan was occupied by the allies under supreme command for the allied powers general Douglas MacArthur in 1946 MacArthur's G2 intelligence intelligence chief major general Charles Wilbury began paying Yakuza criminals to break communist legs leg strikes and infiltrate labor unions born out of wit within bench in Germany and called my beloved fascist by MacArthur Wilbury recruited Japan's former chief of military intelligence Lieutenant general says Cizu Arizu to help run his covert operations and succeeded in freeing many class a war criminals one of these men Yoshio Kodama served as a liaison between G2 and Yakuza gangs and later worked for the CIA for 25 years what the course seconds be what the course seconds be became to the heroin trade that Yakuza became to the Asian and family and fed amine market and monopoly they still hold and fed amines speed have been popular in Japan since World War two when the most well-known military users of and fed amines were kamikaze pilots today Yakuza have allied with Chinese triads in Hong Kong and Taiwan in global sales of heroin and speed together they now market a smokable and fed amine called ice common in Hawaii but still rare in the US mainland ice is cheaper and more potent than crack cocaine and could become the next drug epidemic car number eight my lovable fascist serious dose of history wow serious dose of history