Now our next topic is equality, principles and practices. So these are actually the basic skills and basic concepts we have to produce in our young kids. Or in other words, in early childhood education. Equality is partly focused on the individual children and families currently attending their setting or service. Our concept of equality is that the children who are coming to our school and the families who are related to each other, they all get equal opportunities within the school. Whether they are gendered or socio-economic backgrounds, whether they have differences in their physical abilities or whether they have differences in their educational backgrounds like parents are in labour, they work in offices, they are educated, there are no educated people in our country. So we have to keep all those kinds of children in the same way. So equality requires reflections as knowledge about the past and discussion with others. You can't sustain or implement this equality until you don't know the background of the children. So how will you find out the background? Some of the parents come to their school to record their children. And some of the parents will have to find out during the parent-teacher meeting.  How much can you not give? What are the financial conditions? What are the advantages and disadvantages of getting knowledge about the children? What kind of disabilities do you think we need to pay more attention to? The first thing is that it is important to take complete information from an educator about the children. When you find out everything, then you can do the same for them. You can do whatever you need. So one thing I said is that this concept of equality is not only for educators. Educators should understand children equally and give them the same opportunities. When we were talking about leadership skills, we were saying that every concept that we need in our adulthood, in our community members, we need to start with the beginning teaching. For example, if our leaders are not performing properly, or our professionals are not performing properly, then what is the reason for this? When the children have a clear vision, then their education was not done as a good leadership, as a good leader, as a good professional, as a good human being. So if that education was done, then the issues we see in the adults in the community would not be there. So we are saying that we need to create a concept of equality in our children. That you are all equal.  No one has the opportunity to achieve anything. This is also part of our religion. That no one has the opportunity to achieve anything. So how will we do it? It is the act of doing something regularly or repeatedly to create perfection. Look, what you have to do is to inculcate this practice every day in the children. Every day, they have to share equal resources. They do not have to favor anyone. They do not have to give anyone more work, love, love, care, and neither do they have to do it. So, in this way, no one will be allowed to do any other thing unless there are any deficiencies or disabilities in them that everyone will be aware of. For example, if someone has a problem or this can happen, or if they need something more, then we have to give them this. Otherwise, in other circumstances, we should treat everyone the same way. We should tell the children that they are all like you and you do not have any opportunity to achieve anything. Then practice leads to perfection. The more we practice this in our work in the morning and in the evening, the more we should treat everyone with justice, the more we should give everyone the same opportunities, the same resources, the same money. The siblings at home, this is also the basis of our religion that the children of any person should be treated equally with them and not give anyone any fociety. Then principle means that our principles is a basic idea or rule that explains or controls how something happens. So, examples, duties, responsibilities and working in groups. So, as I said, you will have to make some rules to get equality first. The first rule is that if we treat everyone the same way, then everyone will be treated equally. All the resources will be given one by one. The responsibilities will also be given one by one. If their rights are equal, then their rights are also equal so that in the coming days, they will know that they will not get any kind of an edge or benefit that they will sit on one side and treat others with their service. They will also have to do the same with others. Then, as I mentioned, responsibilities, duties, rights will be shared with all these things. And then, when we want to create equality, then equality is obviously with someone else. So, if we work in groups, then the other group members will get a chance to communicate and interact with them. So, our children will be able to know what is the difference between them and them. There is a very good activity that we are discussing in our modules, that you give them a chance to discuss with other children. They will write their own similarities on a paper and write their own differences. And then, it is also written that if there are any resources, any distribution in the class, any distribution in the house, then should they get more share or should they get equal or should they get less? See, equality is acceptable. If they say we should get less, because they know how to sacrifice there. But most of the time, you will talk about it. If you want to get more, then why do you have it? So, it is better for the children to decide by themselves what equality is and what it means. It is clear that all the resources, all the rights, all the rights, all the distribution should be given a chance to talk on any occasion and to socialize.


Good afternoon. Thanks for coming to this new or relatively new CSIS building despite the weather and Today we're very pleased to host Mr. Keisuke Sadamori. He's the director for energy markets and security at the International Energy Agency, which is based in Paris And he's here to present the IEA's mid-term coal market report. This report is part of the IEA's mid-term report series and it gives us a IEA forecast on coal markets for the the coming five years as well as an In-depth analysis of recent developments in global coal demand supply and trade You already have his bio in front of you, but I will just give you a very Brief version of it. Mr. Sadamori has been with IEA since 2012 and he monitors Things other than coal, I mean global oil markets and also energy supply Situations prior to joining IEA. He was He was with the Minister of Economy Trade and Industry of the Japanese government and he has held various important posts including his position as the executive assistant to the Prime Minister in 2011 when the great great East Japan earthquake and tsunami hit Japan, which as you may know triggered a Fukushima nuclear plant accident And he has he has also been the Japanese representative to numerous international energy fora Including IEA governing board. So without further ado, please Share your insight. Thank you Thank you very much Miss Nakano for the nice introduction and yes, the my name is Sadamori. I'm from the IEA I'm the director of the the energy markets and security at the IEA so my responsibility is the the emergency response, you know emergency preparedness and the oil market monitoring as well as the the the market analysis of gas coal power and Also recently the renewables because a renewable is no longer about the R&D story But the actual deployment and in some regions that they are already competing with the other fossil fuel sources without any subsidies So so that's what I do at the at the IEA and also it's nice to be Back to this town because I used to work at the embassy in Washington and that's More than 15 years ago, but the so I was here as the embassy staff from 1998 through 2001 So it's always a pleasure to come back to the city because the this is where the action is in terms of the various Policy issues now. Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen So it is a pleasure for me to present the IEA is the Middleton coal market report in 2013 as explained by the moderator, so this is part of the medium-term market reports on oil the gas Renewable and coal and we just launched this last month At the IEA and now this is my first time to be to be presenting this at this Washington and now There's no denying the controversy reality of coal and its dominance of power generation worldwide So no fuel draws the same higher particularly for its polluting quality is both locally and in terms of the CO2 emissions and Yet no fuel is as responsible for powering the economic growth that has pulled billions out of energy poverty in the past decades So as we look to the long term we must ask what role coal Has to play in the energy mix That we want to achieve because there will be a role But without the mitigating the polluting effects of coal the pursuing business as usual will have an enormous tragic consequences So before going to the specific findings of the a medium-term coal market report 2013 Which covers five years towards the 2018 let us take a look at the longer-term perspective based on the the other Flagship publication of the IEA, which is the world energy outlook 2013 which covers the year toward the 2035 now Here is the the world energy demand by fuel from 1980 to 2035 long outlook and you can see easily that the Coal has grown fastest among the old fossil fuels all field sources not only fossils in the first ten years of this century and And this is mostly coming from the very rapid growth of China and the future outlooks toward the 2035 that's in the dotted line and This dotted line is based on the NPS new policy scenario Which is the central scenario of the world energy outlook and which assumes the continuation of the existing policies and Implementation of the policies that have been announced by governments but are yet to be given effects So in this NPS coal will grow at a solid base in the near future, but not Faster than other field sources, but the But it depends upon the which scenario in the wheel that you look at so for instance the 450 ppm scenario which is shown in the green bar Which shows that The 450 ppm scenario shows what it takes to set the energy system on track to have a 50% chance of Keeping to a two degrees Celsius in the long-term increase in the average global temperature In this case coal consumption must go down drastically and only gas Is allowed to grow among the fossil fuels On the other hand under the CPS current policy scenario which only takes into account the policy already exists and The coal will overtake oil and we will continue to grow as the largest fuel Source toward the 2035 So if we take the current policy scenario the future outlook in the last slide would be different So coal will overtake oil demand around the 2020 Which would be similar to the project projection in the medium term the market reports So the I will show this to you later So therefore like it or not the coal is here to stay for a long time to come Another fundamental point about coal is that it is abundant and the geopolitically secure Even in the old sector recently the high oil prices and the improvements in technologies like fracking have enabled the production levels are formally unseen Overall the remaining energy sources around the world will not Constrain the projected energy demand in the foreseeable future, but among such fossil fuel sources abundance of coal is Outstanding and as you know the majority of coal is used for the power generation and The iron steel production is the second largest use of coal but that represents around five percent of coal use and The outlook for the power generation in known OECD countries coal will continue to be the dominant generation fuel Coal power plants are easily integrated into the existing power systems and modern plants Very flexible So providing affordable base load factor while backing up the variable renewable generation as well so The This is the the about the world energy outlook the entire global picture, but energy demand growth will be led by China and India and other Asian countries and for the next decade China will be the main driver of the global energy growth and Especially in the world of coal China is dominant China has half of both the Global production and consumption of coal So in China the scale of coal in the economy is simply incomparable to fuels Elsewhere so replacing coal with gas in Chinese power generation would require Twice the volume of all global energy trade So coal therefore continues to play an important role in the economic growth and energy security worldwide and after 2020 to toward the 2035 it would be the India who would lead the global coal growth Instead of China, which would drastically slow down now I Need to add that it is not only China and India the there's another publication by the the IEA which is the world energy outlook Southeast Asia energy outlook. So this was released Last September I guess yeah September at the time in the margin of the the ASEAN energy ministers meeting and According to this outlook The if we continue the current path the ASEAN's generation will generation mix will see a drastic change So coal-fired power generation which currently generates around 200 terat hour. That's about a 30% of the entire generation in 2011 will grow to more than 400 terat hours in 2020 and More than 900 terat hours in 2035 that would be the growth of 6% per year and that and as a result in 2035 the coal will take about half of the entire generation in that ASEAN region On the other hand the gas-powered generation will increase modestly by around 2% annually, so the the gas power generation will lose its share from 44% in 2011 to 28% in 2035 I Need to add that the more than 70% of the coal power generation built Under construction in this region are of subcritical type which is the inefficiency of low efficiency type of the power generation plant and That leads to the point that coal in its current Form is simply unsustainable So coal-fired heat and power generation is the biggest single source of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from field combustion today And more than three-fifths of the rise in global CO2 emissions since 2000 is due to a burning of coal to produce the electricity and heat and We should not overlook the health problem tied to the local pollution produced by the coal combustion and As you can see in its slide the majority of the new CO2 emissions are coming from the non-OECD countries And even on an accumulated basis since the year 1900 Non-OECD would reach almost the same level as the the OECD countries in 2035 Even though we have known how to build efficient super Critical ultra super I forgot the the kind of a very high efficiency co-fired power plant since the 1960s Most of the co-plans built since then and the large proportion of ones are being developed today In particular in the non-OECD areas are of that inefficient subcritical kind if these Subcritical plants under development in India and ASEAN states Including the Indonesia were completed with the latest Existing technology it would save as much CO2 as would be saved by all the wind turbines in Europe So when it comes to the sustainable energy profile We are simply off track and the coal in its current form is the prime culprit Yet with coal set to remain an integral part of energy mix for the decades to come the challenge is to make it Cleaner and more efficient So what I stated above is the long-term perspective as a background to this medium term coal market report And now let me move on to the findings of the a medium term coal market report 2013 We released this in December last year. So this is a book Now this slide serves on the line the point that not only Coal is here to stay but coal demand growth is also not showing any signs of stopping Over the next five years additional coal production capacity over half million tons per annum Will be added worldwide each day and that will be necessary to meet the worldwide demand increase of around 2.3% per year on average until 2018 Every year the coal continued to grow more than oil and gas. So in 2012 China and the United States had abnormally low coal consumption And I will come back to this point later in the presentation But even with this abnormal drop in the growth in China and in the United States The coal grew more than oil and gas If nothing changes a coal will catch up with oil as the world's biggest primary energy source in the foreseeable future and nobody can be surprised in accordance with the recent trends and in 2012 China surpassed the rest of the world in coal consumption and this is in energy terms not in terms of physical tons and What is remarkable is that the growth in China is projected to be much lower than it used to be So we assume strong economic growth in China However, our projections for the Chinese coal growth are much lower and that's 2.6% per year on average And this gap comes from the efficiency both in the production and consumption of the electricity diversification away from coal in in non-power Sector all around the economy and the rebalancing to a less coal-intensive economy Now on the other hand the coal conversion emerges as a as a demand driver with potential to increase the coal demand and I will also come back to this point later and So this is what happened in China in 2012. So coal demand growth in China in 2012 Was only a 4.7% and that's the second lowest in the decade Comparing the his cold historical trends with the 2012 we noticed that the three factors that could explain the low coal demand growth in China of 2012 and the first the GDP growth was 7.8% in 2012 And that's lower than the average in the with the past trend over the last decade China has grown over 10% per year on average Second the elasticity of power in relation to the GDP was 0.74 and This is the third lowest level in the decade with an average of one point one. So that's the little yellow or green. I don't know. I mean and So the third in 2012 the hydro production in China was 23% higher than in 2011 So almost all the extra hydro production Resulted in less coal power generation If we turn this is the OECD the coal demand outlook So if we turn to the OECD OECD Outlook to the 2018 the general trend is flat But the picture at the regional level is more nuanced. So in the United States, which is the blue line The demand will largely depend on the coal and gas price evolution. So Another important factor is the retirement of the coal fire plants and which will be more important in 2015 due to the mercury and the air toxic standards taking effect in January at the beginning of 2016 in Europe, which is a red line The coal gas and CO2 prices are expected to continue to give a cost competitive advantage to coal over gas But we consider that the most of the gas to coal switching has already occurred and The slow economic growth and more renewables will drive out the thermal generation production So significant new coal capacity are expected in Germany and Netherlands But there will be also be the significant retirements In both countries and in others especially in the United Kingdom and therefore so so We don't we don't believe that the coal will continue to grow in Europe. It will Finally decline slowly But in Asia high gas prices and concerns about the nuclear power generation plant will make the coal plants Run at the high load factors. So we expect solid growth in OECD Asia, Japan and Korea All in all the OECD coal demand in 2018 is focused to be about the same as it was in 2012 So the we saw in the latest last slide that in OECD countries growth in Asia offsets declines in Europe and US And here we see the most of the coal demand growth comes from Asia also in the non OECD countries So this is moving trade on the center of gravity Towards east which impact on the price setting as well now Let let us see but who is more coal dependent and if we take a look at the coal consumption on a per capita Basis for the power generation We might be surprised to see how per capita consumption in places like Australia United States and Germany is bigger than in China and Actually China and Denmark's per capita Coal consumption are quite close and on the other hand we can also see that the low level of per capita consumption in countries Considered as the coal places like India and Indonesia now so But it is not only in Germany and Denmark that depend on coal in Europe The with cost advantage of coal over gas as I said the European countries Germany Spain UK increase the coal consumption in the last few years some call it the golden age of coal in Europe, but but the but that Cost advantage of coal in Europe is nothing comparable to the cost advantage of coal in Asia region so this slide shows the price of coal and that's in dark blue the lower line and Gas that's in red the the higher line and the purple bars Indicate the co2 prices necessary to make gas as competitive as coal Taking to account only the variable costs Because given that the new investment decisions cannot materialize within our outlook, you know medium term outlook period We do not consider the capital costs for this comparison. So this is purely about the fuel switching in short term If we consider the capex factors then the price would be lower, but still significant and it is evident that the why Coal plans will work at high load factors in Japan and Korea and This break even carbon cost so to say is currently around 140 or 150 US dollar per ton and You know that the the common prices in Europe right now is Less than five euros or in the US dollars. That'll be seven dollars probably per ton of the CO2. So so you can see that this 150 dollars per ton is something not possible in the foreseeable future and In order to give the scale of how this impacts on the electricity prices this $150 per ton would translate to around $50 per megawatt hour or five cents per kilowatt hour for gas and 125 dollars per megawatt hour or 12.5 cents per kilowatt hour for coal. So you can see that the kind of a level of impact of this level of carbon pricing comes in order to make the coal and gas the equally competitive Now let me talk about a little bit about the coal trade and that's growing faster but moving east and in this map the countries in blue they are the exporters and the the green countries are some of the significant the importers and What this chart shows your projections for the thermal coal trade in 2018 so the Pacific Basin has two biggest exporters as you know the Indonesian Australia as well as the biggest importers China Japan India Korea and Taiwan therefore it concentrates most of the seaborn trade with increasing share in the Atlantic Basin on the left-hand side The Columbia and the United States are the main exporters with the European receiving most of the coal South Africa and the Russia they are the kind of a swing suppliers and Increasing their sales to the Pacific Basin, so especially countries like South Africa They used to ship most of their coal to the European countries, but now it's more and more moving toward the Pacific side providing even to the countries like Japan so So so the those thermal coal trade continuous movies and that would have a kind of impact on the The price setting in the global trade on the supply side the main expansions take place in Indonesia and the Australia About the prices The we see in this chart how prices have shown a declining trend in both steam and the metallurgical coal Steam coal prices for example declined from over 120 Dollars per ton to below 80 dollars per ton and that's a 35% decline So both steam and metallurgical coal prices are in the low part of the traditional boom and bust cycle and mostly coming from the current over supply The chart at the bottom. I'm sorry. It's a kind of small one so This one shows how the fossil fuel prices have evolved since 2005 and we can see that the oil prices and now 2.5 times What they used to be in 2005 and gas prices in Europe But twice what they used to be and cold but coal prices are almost the same as the 2005 levels and Of course, this story would not be complete without the gas prices in US and that's in red and Which is a lot lower compared with the year 2005 So although the coal demand is not so price elastic In some regions of the world, but it is obvious that the low prices would mean Would lead to the the higher demand of coal now We often hear that the shale gas production in the United States is driving Coal prices down in Europe and worldwide and Yeah, indeed the shale gas was one of the reasons but not the only one For instance, the US winter of 2012 was mildest one in decades so it's a lot warmer than this year obviously and Leading to the lower gas demand for the heating and thermal generation So this caused the high gas inventories in spring 2012 With Henry have gas prices at the time breaking the level of about two dollars per million BTU and This is a very well-known story, especially in the United States and this decreased coal consumption That's equivalent to the around the 200 terat hours which from coal to gas from 2011 to 2012 The thermal coal exports from the United States increased But if we put this in perspective, we see that the expansions occurred in all those big countries Especially Indonesia and Australia So therefore we need to consider that the US only was only a kind of a part of the current oversupply now the one point about the United States is that the The picture what happened in the United States in 2012 is not complete if we do not mention this coal file plants retirements Over 10 gigawatt in 2012 mostly driven by the EPA regulations of our decommissioned and Even if the retired coal power plants are usually the old and efficient ones and hence with low load factors there's an impact on the cold demand of course and As mentioned before that we expect the big retirements again in 2015 as the new standard on the mercury in an air level is enforced since the first of January in 2016 There's a kind of misconception On the US coal that all coal which was not consumed in the United States was simply exported to Europe In this chart, I'm sorry. It's a bit hard to see but in this chart we can see that the caulking coal exports were flat in 2011 and 2012 that's a red part almost the same height and Only one quarter of the 100 million tons of decrease in coal demand in the United States was exported So out of a 100 less coal demand in the United States around the 26 million tons So about a quarter were exported and that was mainly to the Europe. Sure so now so So that that's shown in the in this the change of the thermal coal exports So we have seen a little bit of increase but that that's not all so So so the coal not used in the United States did not go to Europe So the question is where did it go and we have seen the various the newspaper reports about this thing is that Well, it's actually the US cold the So this is the answer. I mean the so the industry had to face the the overcapacity and Had to reduce the production. So they are still Remain remaining under the ground so the The the so they had to reduce production by around 70 million tons as we saw in the last slide So this has produced a significant loss of jobs, especially in regions like Kentucky or West Virginia So the job creation in shell gases implication in other sectors Of course, this is part of the economy but but but but I think that we should be aware of this and The the coal market in the United States is rather complex with the majority of long-term contracts and sophisticated logistics But in a simple analysis, we see that the central Appalachian and the powder river basin accounted for most of the decline Whereas it seems logical that the central Appalachian Central Appalachian regions are probably the highest cost region in the United States suffered a big cut We think that the powder river basin as a lowest cost Lowest cost coal in the United States is more related to some of the retirements shown in a few slides ago the so without the dissolved for occasion units and hence Consuming the low sulfur coal from powder river basin. So there are there are mostly a big decommission and retired so that's the reason why the The powder the powder river basin coal has been hit in recent years This is about the Chinese are the the the coal conversion So we used to consider that the coal to liquid and coal to gas Kind of conversion has been considered, you know, they were non-economical But nevertheless, there are a few considerations that we should we should take into account now and first the yeah, of course that the coal to liquid and coal to gas conversion is expensive, but Now we are seeing the very high prices of oil and gas, especially in the Asian region Secondly the coal to gas or the coal to liquid processes that they're ideal for the stranded Coal in China, especially that is the coal that is a low cost But low quality and far from the demand centers and third Especially the coal to gas conversion with pipeline networks if it works could address a problem of rail transport of coal in China So during the next five years the coal gasification will contribute more to the China's gas supply than shell gas While there are many uncertainties about these technologies the potential scale of projects in China involving coal to produce the synthetic Natural gas and that synthetic liquid is enormous So if this were to become reality it would mark not not just an important development of coal markets But would also imply the revisions to the gas and the oil market outlooks So thank you very much for your patience. So so this is a wrap up So coal demand will grow at 2.3 percent per year on average to reach almost 9 billion tons in 2018 and let me remind you that in 2000 Coal demand global coal demand was less than 4.8 billion tons, so it's a huge rapid increase and we believe that the policies of the new government in China will slow coal demand growth but we do not project peak coal in China in our outlook period and The OECD coal demand will be basically flat as Japan and Korea will offset declines in other OECD economies Indonesia and Australia will lead the export growth and Australia has increased production costs recently, but it's still competitive and Finally after some years of uncertainty It seems that the coal conversion is in China is taken off, but its scale will depend on the environmental and other Issues, so thank you very much for your patience and so that's it from me And I'll be happy to fill any questions that you may have. Thank you just a quick question before I open the floor to general questions the second point about the peak Chinese demand peak Mr. Sathamori, so you said that it's through 2018 you don't expect it in the longer version or the the WIO 2014 do you discuss when that may happen? Would it I mean when before? 2035 that may happen or would it be beyond the horizon? That's a valid questions and because this is about the a medium-term market reports, so we do not So this is not based on the scenario analysis while in case we are so it depends I mean if we take the the more kind of a Sustainable type of scenarios then Chinese are called demand must decrease, but So so I have to say that the depends on the scenarios and it all comes down to the individual Climate change and the energy policies that the individual country would have. Yeah. Thank you so now I invite anyone here to Ask questions and just the ground rule if you could police identify yourself and let us know if we you're with and then ask the Question of form of question. I have a question about India coal As you as you will know that they've said quite ambitious Goals to import more and more coal over the years What they're getting most are collier from Richards Bay and Newcastle and Calamity do you think that if Coal were to co-production there were to Max out at some point and they had to still hit targets. Would they? Start calling up more sources in the US to import from other sources So your question about the what did the Indian increase of imports from which country so I Think it depends. I think it depends The there's no doubt that the India will increase the the the coal imports and soon The instead of China India will be the biggest Especially the the biggest importer of coal in the over the in the US Oversee, you know, they did the coal and The from which country I think it depends that I can only say that there are enormous resources abound in the In the the Asian region, you know Indonesia still has a lot of capacity while Australia has a lot of coal and The and South Africa they they are the real swing swing supplier and now increasing the supply their supply to the coal so But because the the coal has a unlike LNG the coal is Has a very a flexible liberal, you know, the trading regime due to its character. So if Especially the the Colombian coal can be completed in price terms, even if we add the kind of extra Transport cost then well, they can be but but I would say that it all depends upon the market conditions. Yeah, thank you Thanks for hosting all of us. My name is Meredith Miller from the National Bureau of Asian Research And thank you very much for a very interesting presentation I was wondering if you could repeat the statistic you offered about what kind of gains would be Available from the implementation of ultra supercritical or supercritical power plants in Projects in Indonesia and other developing countries non OECD countries in Asia And secondly if you've done any analysis of what kind of a carbon price would make The use of that technology More competitive Thank you What I said in my presentation was that the if all those are subcritical plants under development in India and In ASEAN states including Indonesia were completed with the latest Existing technologies so super ultra critical type of high efficiency co-production plants It would save as much CO2 as would be saved by all the wind turbines in Europe So that's that's what I stated, but but I think it's It's a real kind of a practical realistic Ways in order to reduce the CO2 emissions In these countries because the they'll be using coal anyway So so that's so the improving the the efficiency Because that's possible with the existing technologies. So I think that that's a real the effective way to do it and What was the second question? Well, I've been using this the the carbon pricing is used in terms of the comparison of the gas and coal so in terms of Increasing the the the efficiency increases I think it can be done even without the carbon pricing per se because that would reduce the consumption of the coal if they they can really the increase the level of efficiency of those carbon coal power generation plants, so it's it's a kind of comparison between the the The the the larger Capix capital cost at the outset or the long-term benefits out of the improved efficiency so so So I don't think that the even without the carbon pricing if we can come up with a kind of a the good support To the initial investment phase then I think that should be possible because it pays in the longer term, you know But of course that the carbon pricing should help. I mean of course, but So I Think it's a rather relative problem. I'm sorry. I have not done any that the kind of a specific calculations, but yeah Thanks If you could wait for since we're taping or Doing a live Streamer whatever it's cold since I'm kind of taking a challenge, but if you can wait for the microphone, that'd be a great help Brian Andrews with the Asia Group Your presentation noted that the US regulatory environment is having some impact on US coal demand particularly with the retirement of coal power to Electricity production I was wondering if you have a perspective review on Some of the US changes announced last year where they would be withholding support on if he financing for coal power projects Internationally do you expect that that policy change will have any impact on global coal consumption or demand or is it something? You haven't really paid attention to or it's just you know the grand scheme of things a drop in the bucket So you're talking your question is about the kind of about the US policy changes And the the kind of impact coming from that to the international the deployment of the the carbon The and that I guess that would include the World Bank's policy for in multilateral lending Institutions policy against the coal use. Well, well, thank you. Thank you for your question Well, I would say that in terms of the direct impact if we take a look at the how the the coal projects are financed the the if you take a look at the whole supply chain of coal from the production to the the and and the consumption including the power generation plants We consider that the the majority most of the financing is coming from the private sector and The I'm not sure but but I understand that it would be something like a 5% is a provided by that the public a multilateral Finance financing institution So I would say the in terms of the direct financing impact Did we don't consider that to be a kind of they have a serious impact on it? But but but but in terms of the indirect effect the I'm not sure I mean But but I would say that what is important is that we really need to Make sure that the needed the efficiency improvement investment should take place In those developing countries including the Asia Southeast Asia and India and China otherwise, we may lose the window of opportunities for Reducing the CO2 emissions in in a practical and realistic way So so I think that's something that we need to ensure and that's part of the responsibility of the developed economies. Thank you if I can the quick follow-up question to that excellent question so From what I understand the ADP has The the sort of World Bank has pretty much followed the US Treasury Department guidance or however You call it on the financing from what I understand ADP has not adopted that line of thinking To the extent you're comfortable if you could share with me what sort of discussions you might be aware of with among the Asian Countries because I think Cole as you eloquently this you know explained. I mean it is still very big Player in the Asian energy economy so The I'm not a really expert on this a multilateral lending institution So so I guess that there would be some others who knows better than I do But my understanding is that the in in the very discussion at the ADP especially those The the Asian member countries view is somewhat different from that of the United States. So they're more positive about ensuring the investment money flow to the Asian the coal power generation plans. So so that's There as far as I know in general, but I'm not sure about the very specific Yeah, the the policies of them. Thank you But but I but I also I would like to point out that it's not only about the natural lending institutions But we also have the bilateral the the the credit support institutions In various of the countries. Yeah Yes Can my record roll docks One of the trends over the last decade at least with regard to oil is the increasing cost of producing oil In terms of the energy return for energy invested, which is reflected in the price per barrel If it was still $30 a barrel, nobody would be practicing hydraulic fracturing Or probably deep water drilling or mining tar sands With regard to coal, is it not only cheap but for the foreseeable? I mean not only abundant but for the foreseeable future cheap to produce At least in the The this a medium term outlook I mean the as far as we can see they we do not expect the coal to the coal costs to increase drastically because that they're so abundant and they're still Have the resources that can be the easy exploited So so I understand that the situation is rather different from the situation of oil where they have to go all the way to the Arctic sea or the very deep sea resources or the Fracking so so so I think the coal is not the days that the coal will move into that kind of a high cost stage is very far Yeah, I'm Bob Hershey. I'm a consultant Could you tell us some more about coal conversion of how much would be to? Synthetic natural gas and how much The first of all I would have to say that It depends. I mean they were not so sure how much of the project can be actually be the implemented Because it's it it there there's a lot of uncertainties as to the environmental impacts, you know the when I first when I first heard that The the coal to gas conversion may take place. I Thought that it's it's a good news. I mean because gas is a lot cleaner But this very The gas to the the coal to gas conversion in being considered in China actually would produce more CO2 because that would be more that would be less efficient than burning coal itself so of course they would do that in order to To improve their you know handling of the energy sources because the gas would be a lot easier to use in some occasions but But but but we have not So there will be more of the the environmental impacts coming from that So it all depends upon how the Chinese regulatory authorities would respond to that and also In order for the coal to gas for instance to work there needs to be an access to the pipeline So and the as you know, the China also has In the process of developing the gas networks in the country So so it also depends on the the transport logistics the day of that and What I'm looking at is So what was the size of the in this very port? I'm sorry Let me come back to you later because there's an assumption in this in certain point, but that's not huge Yeah, but but but I think that the the we are seeing the kind of about the rise in this technology in China And that could be Kind of of the major factor in the coal demand. Yeah, thanks Thank you. My name is Tom Cutler. I'm an independent consultant. So I have a question about coal trade I noticed on one of your charts you showed the drop-in production from the Powder River Basin Which is a very large economic resource for coal in the US and Then another chart you had you had a very thin line coming out of the Pacific Northwest for US Coal exports to Asia. So my question is do you have any perspective on the prospects for increased coal exports from the Northwest US to Asian markets and how might that compete with US coal exports out of the Gulf through the Panama Canal to Asian markets No, I would say that the powder river basin is has a very a cheap I think that's one of the cheapest the coal that can be exploited in the United States But I also understand but there's the problem of the transport cost and the export infrastructures with the With that the powder river basin unlike the Appalachian coal which has a kind of a long years of tradition and Very the endowed export facilities So it all depends upon the how those infrastructure can be developed and also The how that the cost would turn out to be I mean, so it's so it's up to the market So so we're not sure how The those are the the the resource will actually be exported So so that's I would have to say that that depends on the market conditions. Thank you. Thank you for your question Anyone else? Yeah, sure. Okay round two Isn't pet coke competitive with coal for certain pet coke Petroleum coke Isn't that competitive with coal for certain applications and isn't China increasing their import of pet coke and aren't we increasing in our production of pet coke? I forget exactly why it's got something to do with light oil versus heavy oil I'm sorry. I don't have I don't think I have the data with this the report so I don't think I have any specific answer to this Yeah, yeah, the it could be cost-competitive but it all depends upon the various the the environmental regulations and So depends on the circumstances, I guess Anyone else so I guess I get to ask one last Guy Caruso CSIS a suki. I know the Chinese have been somewhat reluctant to Partner up with IEA, you know, certainly at the at the level of membership But but they are very active in things like technology. Is that true for the coal Technology is to have the Chinese been active participants in cooperating with our member using the term ours Well, thank you very much for the question and I'm really happy to see that you call the IEA as we our So that's it's nice Yes, the I think there there's some multiple The factors the around the relationship between the IEA and China and of course Well, first of all the the IAEA started in the 1970s as a kind of the importers alliance against the the physical disruption of the oil imports and At that time I was created under the framework of the OECD So we have the OECD members as the IEA members not exactly the same but basically and During the time the OECD or IEA members consumed around three quarters of global oil. So that was That was appropriate, but now we are seeing the more and more the energy demand coming from the non-OECD countries now and And from last last year to this year We'll see that the non-OECD oil demand will overtake the OECD demand so that means that the IEA has only half of global oil consumption and that will lead to the question of whether The our emergency response regime is effective in case of physical disruption So that leads to that lead that force us to work more with the non-member countries And right now we are working on the initiative called the association so we are trying to create a kind of category of association partners and to work with the IEA more before becoming a members and The China is of course an important partner in that respect and so we are doing a lot of work projects with China In terms of the energy security we think that they did the working with the China is very important And but that's that's not only about oil, but the coal particularly Gas because they are interested in how they can modernize their gas market. So we are willing to Contribute to China in that respect and also the various climate change energy efficiency technologies as well. So And the we think that we'd like to do more work more with China And for instance in the in case of the coal for instance we we have what we call the CIAB coal industry advisory board and There are some major Chinese, you know the coal power generation companies the the coal companies that are member to the CIAB So on a private sector basis, we already have the they started to work with China so all in all the we would like to see more of the cooperation with China, but it requires a lot of Work ahead of us. So first of all, we need to build more confidence with each other So the so I'm willing to work whatever Cooperate the project with China in that respect. Thank you very much for your question. Yeah Well, it's it's time. So please join me in thanking thanking Sada Morisa for his excellent presentation Thank you. Thank you very much. And thanks again for coming all the way here despite the freezing Sub-zero Celsius temperature and stay warm Thank you so much. Thank you very much


So we're here at Yitoa. So hello, so who are you? Hi, I'm Tree Friend Yitoa and I'm an international sales and I'd like to make introduction of our most popular model is APF 6.601 and it's with Wi-Fi, it's with touch and it's Android devices. So this is e-ink with the front light with all Winner A13 CPU inside? Yes, exactly. And capacitive touch screen? Yes, but this capacitive touch screen is very special, it's not like the usual one. It's very slim, you can see, it's only 6.8mm. Nice, and so this is a new product you're going to launch right now and what is the bulk price, 1K? The price is around 65 US dollars and for the accessories only one USB keepers included but if for other more accessories we need to add it from the coast. Nice, let's go just around here, let's click on settings. We can go here in settings and about, and we can see it's running Android. Yes, Android 4.0. Alright, Android 4 All Winner E-Reader. So it's a long battery life? How many months? How many months? A long time huh? It can last a long time and then you have a setting to go up and down on the brightness and so you do all Winner E-Reader and you do rock chip also? Yes. So which one is rock chip here? This one is our capacitive touch screen with the front lights. I can show you about our devices. You can see it's rock chip whereas Android 0, actually we can update the system to Android 4.0. With the rock chip also? Yes. So which one is a specification for the rock chip? Is it this one? Yes. So 2906? No, no, it's actually this one. Okay, 2818? Yes. Alright, and so you do a lot of e-ink devices right now? Yes. You only do e-reader right now? Yes, we used to do tablets but now we focus on markets on e-ink. And so how about this one for example? How much it costs? This is no front light? Yes, it's no front light, no capacitive touch and there's only buttons. It's like 42 US dollars for 3K. 3K? 3K, yes. Customer in any country can just contact you and you can put the logo here. Yes, we can put the custom logo back of this case. Let's try to go in the menu a little bit so you can go down here like this. You can go, let's go, you can go back. And so this is the menu is right here? Yes. And you can go to the library. Yeah. And read all the books right there. The e-ink Triton display? Yes. 6 inch? Yes.


Before I begin to read, the first question I ask myself is, what's my reading environment like? I know I read best in absolute silence, but some of my friends prefer a little bit of background noise. I personally also have to put my phone on airplane mode so I don't get distracted. Next I ask myself, how many pages do I have, and how much time do I have to read them? I have to be honest with myself about my attention span. I mean, I wish I could read for two hours straight, but I know that after 30 minutes I gradually stop comprehending what I read. Though it is true that the more I read, the more my reading stamina increases. Currently I plan a break every 30 minutes or so, during which I go on a short walk or eat a snack. And when it's time to continue reading, I close my eyes and take three deep breaths to get back into the zone. Doing a little bit of planning before beginning my reading session has a huge impact on my reading efficiency.


And last class I have discussed about this sheet pile design. So, I have discussed cantilever sheet pile. Now, I was discussing about this anchor sheet pile and the fix support method that I was discussing. Now, in the fix support method or fix earth support method that is discussed here. Actually, the proposed earth pressure distribution that was taken here and then that was simplified and we consider two different beam during the design. That means, this was the simplified form of earth pressure distribution. So, if this is sheet pile, this was the simplified earth pressure distribution. Now, this is the position of the anchor if this is A is the top, D is the position of the anchor, E is the dredge level, I is the point of puncture where moment is 0 and G is the point where this force is this stress is maximum. So, these were the assume earth, this was the simplified earth pressure distribution that was considered. So, these things was discussed in last class. So, now here if I draw the bending moment diagram of this portion, then this is the, this here it is maximum. Then at I point this value is 0, then this will follow this path. So, this is the G again this I point, this is E point and this portion, this is where it is maximum D point, this is A point. So, this is the pressure distribution from this is BMD. Then two different beam was considered one from A to I, this is A to I, this is the same E point and this is some D point where the force F is acting, this F is the anchor force and another one is from I to G. So, this is beam 1 and this is beam 2. Now, what are the forces which is acting here? The reaction force R 1 is acting the same force in opposite direction R 1 is acting in beam 2 and then R G is acting in the G point. So, this R G is the reaction for at G point, R 1 is the reaction force at the G I point for the beam 2, then R 1 is the reaction of the I point in for beam 1 and F is the anchor force. So, these are the forces. Now, we have to start design of this method. Now, one thing that you can notice that here this value where this point is 0, sorry this is the I point where bending moment is 0. So, this will be the I point. So, this is I point not this one. So, this point is where value is A and the I point is the point where bending moment is 0 and then this distance is A, A where the stress is 0 from the gauge level and I is the point where BMD is 0 from the gauge level. So, I is the point where bending moment is 0. So, now, if I consider this two things and then I consider this two things and then we simplify how to calculate these forces, then first if I take that this is our again if I consider the that same distribution that is this is gauge level, then this is the diagram G, this is may be the I point, this is E point, this is the anchored force is acting D point, this is A point. The same force diagram we are considering here, the forces are acting is in this direction, here it is acting in this direction. Now, if this distance or stress is 0, this then this is A and this I point from the gauge level is say I, distance of the I point from the gauge level is I. Now, so if I take two beams, then we have this is our first beam, this is beam 1 and this is from A to I and that beam if I draw the diagram, so this is the gauge level is here say this is say E point and then this is lower part portion. So, this is the pressure distribution diagram for beam 1 from A to I and what are the forces is acting here? So, one is force which is F acting at D point, this is A, this is E, this is I. So, this is F, then the reaction force is acting here R 1, then the P force which is the force due to this pressure is acting here, this is P 1. So, these are the forces, this P 1 is the external force which is acting here, say this P 1 is at a distance of Y bar from D point. Now, this P 1 can be calculated, the P 1 is the total force acting due to this zone from A to I. So, we can divide it one triangle then another triangle here and this one rectangle and then we can calculate what are the forces here. So, this P A E say suppose this portion P A E, so P A E is equal to active pressure at E level or E point. So, that we can determine, so for this one this will be the P A E will be K A into gamma into H, if H is the height of this point I, the point E from the A. So, H is equal to A E distance, then this is I point, this is I point, this is I point and these are the forces. Now, similarly for beam 2 which is I to G, where the force diagram is this I to G, so this small portion and this one. So, this is a small portion and this one. So, here forces is acting in this direction, here forces are acting in this direction. So, now if consider the forces which is acting for this I to G and this is the reaction force R G is acting, this is the same R 1 is acting in opposite direction and then this P 2 that will act for this small portion stress this P 2 and here for this one another force P 3 will act. So, these are the pressure distribution and forces in beam 1 and beam 2. Now, we have to determine the values of this forces. Suppose, this distance is from here to 0 point is A E 2 this point suppose this is O, similarly this is also O. So, E 2 O is that mean E O is equal to A and E I is equal to I then we can write that I O is equal to A minus I. So, this distance is A minus I. Similarly, total distance if I consider that from E to G is D that E to G that is equal to D and this D. So, we can write that this total 1 E 2 D is G and this E 2 O E 2 O is A. So, we can write O to G is equal to D and this E 2 O D minus A. So, this distance also D minus A. Now, what are the forces that will act? So, first if I consider that beam 1 consider this beam 1 and taking the moment at anchor level or odd level that is equal to 0. So, if I consider in that form then we can consider we can write that P 1 into Y bar that is equal to R 1 into H and if this distance from E A to D is E. So, this distance A to D that is equal to E. So, that means this distance total 1 is from up to E point it is H minus E H minus E then E 2 I E 2 I is I. So, plus I. So, we can write that R 1 value is P 1 into Y bar divided by H minus E. So, we can write this is this R 1 is P Y bar H minus E plus I. Now, here is P is known P 1 is known Y bar is known H is known E is known because we know the position of this anchor, but I is unknown. So, how to calculate the I? So, that first we will decide. So, to calculate the I we have to take the help of one graph. So, that graph we can draw here. So, this is 20 degree this is 25 degree this is 30 degree this is 35 degree and this is 40 degree. Similarly, this is 0.1 this is 0.2 this is 0.3. Now, in this axis this is phi is in this direction and I by H is in this direction. Now, this if I draw the graph. So, this will be the graph. So, here if I know the value of phi if I know the value of H then from this graph we can determine the I. So, any problem the phi value is known for a particular site H is also known. So, we can determine this I value. So, so that means the expression that we have derived that R 1 is equal to P 1 into Y bar divided by H minus E plus I. So, in this expression now I is known from this graph then E is known H is known. So, we can determine R 1. So, that is known. So, now from this beam 1. So, that means what are the forces that is. So, this is the beam 1 again if I draw. So, this is the F force acting at the D level this is A and then the P that will act for this external pressure. So, that is Y bar. So, this is P 1 and then will act this R 1. So, here this R 1 is known P is known now this F we have to determine. So, from this expression we will get the R 1 P 1 is known we will get the distribution now. So, this way what will be the pressure at similarly if I draw the pressure distribution diagram of this beam 1. So, at this point this is the diagram. So, this is D may be in this E point is this one and this is I point. So, at E point. So, this is the diagram. So, as I have discussed that at the E point this is P A E. Similarly, this value at the I point we can determine that is P 0. So, now we can determine P 0 linearly interpolating this value that is our P A E divided by I. So, this is this is P A E this is divided by total A that is equal to P 0 divided by A minus I because the total distribution if we see this is up to I is equal to P 0 distance. So, now if I draw the total distribution. So, this is E point. So, this will go up to here. So, at this point this is P 0 at I point. So, this is the point where this stress is 0 that is O point. So, this is E point this is D point and this is A point. So, now if I linearly interpolate this thing this is P A E. So, P A E this total distance is A and this up to I is I. So, P A E divided by A that is equal to P 0 divided by A minus I. So, from this expression we can determine P 0 value is P A E divided by A minus I. So, for this expression P 0 is also known. So, once we get this I value. So, what we have to do that our P A E is known then A is known. Now, we will calculate this A A is simply that expression P A E into K P minus K into gamma. So, that thing is that thing is already we have already discussed that we can determine this point where the distance of the point where the stress value is 0 from the dredge level that is A. So, that A we can determine this P A E the active pressure at dredge level divided by difference up to coefficient of the earth pressure and passive earth pressure minus active earth pressure into gamma. So, that means from this expression the A we can determine and if I put this A and if I determine this value of I from this graph. So, we will determine the I from this graph then we use a determine the A value from this expression. So, if this all the quantities on the right side are known. So, we will get this A value we will get I value from this graph. So, we will put these things in this expression we will get the P 0 value. So, that means this is our expression 2 this is our expression 3. So, we will from this expression 2 we will get the P 0 value. Once we get the P 0 value then we can determine what is the total force P 1 is acting due to this pressure diagram. So, then we can determine the P 1 as well as the y bar. So, once we get the P 1 and y bar then from equation 1 we can determine the r 1. So, now these are the values that we know. So, from this when you go for the second beam that r 1 should be required because r 1 will act this in the second beam also as the reaction force. So, now in the second beam r 1 and P 0 will be required. So, now if I go for the second beam. So, this is the second beam or beam 2. So, this is the expression this is P 0 at I point this is O point and this is G point this is say P 2 or stress.  So, this will act in this direction and this stresses will act in this direction. So, distance is here as I have mentioned that is A minus I and this distance from O to G is D minus A. So, now for the second beam if I write the expression that moment at G level is 0. If I take the moment at the G level that is 0. So, now if I take the moment then the P 3 value is the area of this triangle that means half into P 2 D minus A and that will act the distance of D by D minus A by 3. This is also D minus A divided by 3. So, that is equal to minus r 1 into D minus I because the total one for the beam 2 is D minus I. So, this is D minus I then minus P 2 is the force. So, that is acting the distance of D minus A then plus two third of A minus I. So, that is equal to 0. So, two third of A minus I of this small triangle. Now from this expression your D is unknown which you have to calculate A is known then r 1 is known from the expression 1 then I is known. So, P 2 we can determine that P 2 value the stress P 2 we can determine that if this is P 0 and the stress P 2 from these two similar triangle we can determine that P 2 force I mean this value we can determine that capital P 2 this P 2 capital P 2 is equal to half into P 0 into A minus I. So, half into P 0 into A minus I. Similarly P 3 capital P 3 is equal to half into gamma into small P 2 into small P 2 half into small P 2 into D minus A half into small P 2 is this value. Now small P 2 is gamma in this value is gamma into k p minus k into D minus A. So, that this value have to calculate small P 2 that is also been discussed in the previous classes. So, that is gamma of this level into difference of the two coefficient into that high D minus A. So, if I put this value the capital P 3 value is half into gamma into k p minus k into D A D minus A whole square. So, in the this previous expression number 4 if I put this value in expression 4 then this value is half into gamma into k p minus k into D minus A to the power 3 divided by 3 minus R 1 into D minus I minus P 2 into D minus A plus 2 third of A minus I. So, that is equal to 0. So, this expression will get by putting all this value in expression 4 and final expression that we will get that 1 by 6 gamma k p minus k into D minus I. So, that is equal to 0. So, this expression will get by putting all this value in expression 4 and final expression that we will get that 1 by 6 gamma k p minus k into D minus I into minus A to the power cube minus R 1 D minus I minus P 2 into 1 third into 3 D minus A minus 2 I that is equal to 0. So, then we will get this final fifth expression. So, in this expression or only unknown is D because I is known from the graph A is known from the expression then P 2 is known from this expression capital P 2 where P 0 is known A is known I is known then R 1 is known from the previous beam 1 I is known. So, all this expression in this is all the parameters are known except this D. So, by using expression 5 we determine this D value. So, using expression 5 determine the D value. So, determine D value then increase it by 40 percent to 20 percent. So, we will increase this D value by 20 to 40 percent. So, now this depth required depth we have calculated. Now, we have to calculate the forces which is acting here. So, the F forces F from this beam 1 we can determine if I see the beam 1. So, this is our D position which is F or anchor force. So, this is A position this is the F 1 or R 1 position and this is the force P 1 it act. So, F we can determine is equal to P 1 minus R 1. So, from this P 1 is known as a forces and R 1 we can determine by equation 1. So, once we get this value we can. So, one is R 1 is known P 1 is known then we can determine the F force also and we can determine by using the expression 5 we can determine the depth required for this sheet pipe. So, these are the two different methods one is of free earth support method another is fixed earth support method. So, these two method we can determine the required depth of the sheet pipe. So, in the next section here I will discuss that one another important thing that is our base excavation by using this sheet pile we can construct one very important geotechnical structure that is our base excavation. So, this type of base excavation is required for the excavation purpose or very deep excavation purpose. Where these lateral support are provided by sheet pile and in between the sheet pile we can provide some additional component that is called start to give additional support to the system. Now, what is sheet base excavation? Suppose if we have one excavation level in this form this is say existing round level and here this is the bottom of the excavated area. So, this portion is excavated where soil is taken out. So, now for this lateral support we can provide the sheet pile here for this base excavation. So, we can provide the sheet pile we can provide the sheet pile this side also and this is the existing this is the ground base excavation ground excavated and then in this area we can provide a lateral support or that is this horizontal components. So, depending upon the depth of this base excavation area we can determine how what is the number of this horizontal support will be required. So, this type of this is the sheet pile these components are called compressive member or this is called start. So, these starts are providing additional support to this sheet pile so that they can sustain or they can take the load lateral which is coming from this to side. So, now what are the things that we have to determine during the design of this base excavation? One thing that is very important that first we have to decide the depth of the excavated area. So, this is suppose the depth of the excavation this is the width of the excavation. So, now the very important four parameters that we have to so these things this is the width of the excavation B width D is the depth. So, these things suppose these D and B are fixed before the design. So, that means we have to provide this B and we have to provide this D that is fixed. Now, what are the very important things for design parameters we say. So, design parameter we can say that what will be the thickness of the sheet pile or that is the thickness of the sheet pile. So, that means what is the thickness of the sheet pile or support lateral I should say that what is the thickness of the lateral support I mean based on this thickness what or what is the stiffness of this lateral support or the stiffness. So, this is one design parameter another design parameter the position of this start. So, where we will place this start what is the spacing between two starts. So, this is our another very important design parameter. So, these are the design parameters we can say. So, that means the position of the start position means the spacing then the number of start. So, these are the very important another design parameter the next one is this depth of the lateral support below the base of the excavation. So, that means the small D below the base excavation and another one is the stiffness of the start. So, these are the things we have to decide before the during the design. So, that means what would be the position of the start what will the spacing between two starts what will the number of the start. So, that depends upon that this depth D depending upon this D what will be we can design the number of start we can design the spacing of the between the start. Then the next one in the what would be the thickness or stiffness of the this lateral support what will be the stiffness of the starts and what would be the depth of this lateral support below the base of the excavation. So, these things we have to decide when during the design of this excavation. Now what are the basis of then on what basis we can decide these parameters. So, one thing is that when you are talking about this base excavation suppose if I draw the same figure here. So, if I draw this same figure here this is the start. So, now the things that we have to observe that should be within permissible limit that this support will deflect. So, there is a lateral deformation of the support. So, lateral deformation that should be within permissible limit that means we cannot provide a huge lateral deformation of this system that should be within permissible limit. So, these things we have to check. So, then next one is due to this lateral deformation or this thing this ground surface will deform in this pattern this ground surface will deform. So, vertical deformation of the ground. So, we will get this type of ground surface deformation. So, this ground surface deformation or vertical settlement of the ground vertical deformation of the ground and that is also important because if there is an existing structure is there. So, we have to design this system such that there is no such influence of this excavation on that existing structure then there should not be any deformation. So, for that this lateral support lateral deformation of the support then ground surface deformation these are very important things. So, that we have to taken care during the design. The next one what is the BM bending moment lateral support. So, we will choose this section then what is the maximum bending moment of this lateral support then what is the maximum force or forces in the start. So, start will be subjected when these two wall is deforming in this direction and this is also deforming in this direction.  So, that means this maximum force in the start. So, these things we have to check during this design. There should not be a huge lateral deformation that lateral deformation of the support should be within permissible limit vertical settlement of the ground within permissible limit. The maximum bending moment what is the maximum bending moment of this lateral support and then what is the maximum struts of this forces acting in the start. So, these things we have to take check during the design and based on that what to design what to decide those design parameters that means the what is to be the stiffness of thickness of lateral support then the position of the starts then depth of the lateral in support below the base of the excavation then stiffness of this starts and then of course the this is the section of any base excavation. So, there is if I draw this another view. So, this side this is another. So, these starts are provided to certain interval. So, that interval one is as a vertical spacing between the two start another is that this is continuous but this starts are not continuous. So, these are placed with certain interval in the longitudinal direction also. So, this is the spacing between in the vertical spacing another is the horizontal spacing between the this starts. So, that that thing we have to also taken care during the design. So, now these are the design things that we have to decide now for this simplified analysis of this type of system. So, now we have to go for the rigorous analysis when we are taking all these parameters during the design and then we have to take we assume that mean first we have to check every time that if I consider this type of configuration then what will be the our design design steps what will be the our settlement in the lateral direction in the vertical direction. So, every time we have to check all these things. So, now that then our aim of the design is that you should design at the system such that that the lateral deformation should be minimum the vertical settlement should be minimum and maximum bending moment is minimized can be minimized and start force is also can be minimized. So, all these things we can minimize. So, that that is our design should be an economical one. So, now for this one first we will discuss a simplified method of during this design suppose if this is our lateral support and this is base excavation then this is our sheet pile and these are the starts. So, we are taking the half portion of this ring. So, then this is the base of the excavated ground and we consider this value is h h or d. Now, for this different type of soil condition we can draw the pressure distribution I mean the this pressure because this this side is soil the soil is giving pressure to this lateral support and then this lateral support is giving pressure to this start. So, that mean there will be a force that will develop in the starts. So, that means we can for the different type of soil we have some different stress diagram. So, that depends upon the speed at which excavation is advanced and then the type of the soil. Suppose if I we have a soil that is sandy soil. So, first soil is sandy sandy soil. So, here we can get this is the distribution pressure 0.65 gamma h k a. So, that means this pressure diagram this pressure this is 0.65 gamma a gamma is the unit weight of the soil gamma h into k a that is the lateral pressure distribution which is acting here suppose here this will be the direction. So, that depends upon the type of soil and the speed at which the excavation is going on. So, here k a we can write 1 minus sin phi divided by 1 plus sin phi. Now, if the soil is firm clay or stiff clay then the distribution will be different. So, then the total distribution pattern will be different. So, this is the this value is 0.22, 0.4 into gamma h. So, this is for your firm clay or stiff clay or stiff clay or stiff clay whose gamma into h then Cu is less than equal to 4. This is another condition. So, that means here this value is h by 4 this is also h by 4. So, that means this one is h by 12. So, this force will also this stress will also act in this direction. So, if the soil is soft clay then the distribution will be different. So, this is the stress that will act. So, that means here 0.2 to 0.4 gamma into h and here the distribution value this is gamma into h minus 4 Cu. So, this is for soft clay medium clay. So, that means gamma h divided by Cu greater than 4. So, this is another distribution this is h by 4 and this value is two-third of h by 4. So, that means these are the three different distribution for the different type of soil. One is if it is purely sandy soil then this is for the firm clay and this is for the soft to medium clay. Now, how to analyze these things to determine the forces in the start and this part and suppose we have a base excavation system like this. This is our ground level this is the base of the excavation. This is another side and then we are taking the number of start is 4 at 4 different level. So, now suppose if it is sandy soil so we will get this type of distribution. This is the sand. So, this is 0.65 into gamma into h into k. Now, we can divide this total diagram or total this sheet perl lateral support in different number of beam or segment where. So, that means here if I consider one beam from up to the second support and then from second to third. So, this is first start, this is the second start, the third start, this is the position of the fourth start. So, we are taking one beam from top to second start and this is the second start. So, this taking one beam from top to second start and then another one second to third another one third to bottom. So, there is three beam where decided one is from top to second start position another is second to third third to the bottom. So, we have the reaction for this second first start that is one and the reaction some reaction of this second start that is R 2 dash and then the second beam this is another reaction for the second beam that is R 2 double dash some portion of the R 3 dash for the second beam and for the third beam that is R 3 double dash and then for this beam R 4. So, these are the forces acting now if I get one by one this beams. So, this is the first beam or beam one. So, where we can draw the distribution or U D L whose density is 0.65 whose value is gamma H into K A that is equal to P A. So, what are the reactions? So, this is the reaction that is R 2 dash and then here this is R 1. Similarly, for the second beam we consider this is P A again the same stress is acting then the reaction is R 2 double dash then R 3 dash this is for beam 2. Now for the third beam the same P is acting then this is R 3 double dash and then the R 4 is acting here. So, these are the this is beam 3. So, this we are taking three beams in this way we can take the more number of beams if the number of starts more and you have to take different diagram for different stress distribution. So, now we have to take these three then you have to solve this determine this R 2 dash R 1 because we know this distance between these two starts and this value that is also known. So, now we have to take determine the R these reactions separately by considering this beam. So, this is one beam whose this spacing this distance between two start is known this U D L is known. So, you can determine these two reactions similarly, for this beam 2 also similarly, for the beam 3. So, once we get all the reactions then the force of the first start will be R 1 force of the second start will be R 2 dash plus R 2 double dash force of the third start will be R 3 dash plus R 3 double dash and force of the fourth start will be R 4. So, then we can determine what is the forces of different starts. This is one method and then we can determine what would be the movement maximum movement at this lateral support also. So, those things. So, we will discuss and for this is what U D L is assigned for the clay will get different type of variation. So, those things I will discuss how to calculate these forces in the next class with some example problem. Thank you.