ినిర్స్లులి పకరారనువిలు పాన్ల్ల్ల్ పిలువిలిలులులుతి పి లంవి పిమావిలురడం సురులులా వక్ల్లులు నాటులి. నులులిలు and we have a community life where people cooperate on different events like festivals on the marriages etc while in cities there is a little less community life secondly the environment is very nice in village in terms of green trees etc but on the negative side the lack of infrastructure in terms of roads in terms of good schools in terms of internet so these are the negatives of our villages which are there in cities yes okay and you know in villages some games are played because of lack of facilities can you tell me two three games which usually played in the villages so one is khokho and other is i would say the gully cricket and the people also engage in running but there is no there are lack of infrastructure like stadiums etc people run on the road side gully dinda also gully dinda also you know gully dinda yes and some if there is some river bed and all then wrestling kabaddi so kabaddi is there but in my village wrestling is not there too okay anganwadis how many anganwadis will be there in our country and government has very not government even supreme court has passed some orders favorable orders for them sir i am not sure about the exact number of the anganwadis in india very recently supreme court has given some judgment about payment payment of gratuity or something sorry sir i am not aware no idea i read on it okay our prime minister is visiting a few countries next two days or so yes can you tell me which are those countries so these countries are from europe the three four countries from the nordic nordic area and also france and germany france-yamani these are Denmark thank you sir okay see this mask has been creating a lot of problem and disposal also has been a big issue yes some studies have been done that these are used in rcc concrete formation will be able to consume more rcc will be strong and consumption of smith will be less you studied that somewhere some research report is there sir i have not studied this research but the fibers in the concrete increases the strength of the concrete sir there is terms called fiber concrete which is which is more tensile strength as compared to the normal concrete but then how it will save something some carbon footprints will it save in what way it can save carbon footprints sir we need to provide enough enough facilities for the incineration of the mask if these are consumed if these marks are used in your rcc how it is going to save some carbon footprints sir that i am not sure okay universal account number yes you have any idea sir this is used for the pension and other purposes universal account number this is for the ufpo that provident fund so what is the function of this and how it was being operated previously sir the purpose is that the people don't use two different numbers for the same job and if we have universal same job same job or any job so for the any job the universal account number is same if people move from one job to another the universal account number remains same and the pf fund is accumulated in that account only sir yes um what is happening in uttapradhe sir there has been a heat wave in uttapradhe recently and it has caused harms to the wheat crop in uttapradhe sir what else sir sorry any new laws being implemented how is the economy doing so there have been issues in the economy due to the covid and recently the government has imposed uh some rules regarding the loud speakers also sir what are the rules that has been imposed sir we have this noise pollution controlled rules 2000 by the central government the government recently ordered the what administrations of the district to strictly enforce these rules so that the loud speakers are registered as well as the limit on the decibel value of the noise is this a limit on the decibel value sir this is uh 55 for the residential areas uh another i'm not sure is there also a time limit sir time limit is also there what is the time limit sir i think this is from 10 p.m to 6 a.m sir 10 p.m to 6 a.m 10 p.m to 6 a.m it should not be used it should not be used yes should we bring this restriction in election rallies also because i think that's another point of time when loud speakers are used extensively so this would be a nice step sir if we control the noise level of the election rallies okay you're a student of sociology yes how has the institution of family and marriage changed in the last few decades so there have been many changes in the institution of marriage the aim of the marriage has changed in the sense that earlier it was uh considered to be a very uh considered to be a thing that should not be changed the divorce was uh treated as a taboo but now it has been changed another change has been the uh the choice of partners nowadays the love marriages are more prevalent earlier these the earlier the arranged marriages were more prevalent sir so in terms of family the more uh the more liberal nature of the families where women also have say in the decision making this is one change uh that has been in the family level uh also sir the uh the say of children in the decisions of families also increasing sir can you elaborate on that how is the say of the children's increasing sir earlier there was the concept of kartha in the joint family but now the emergence of a nuclear families has increased their say in the sense that earlier the kartha used to impose the functions as well as the financial matters to the different uh members of the family but now since the nuclear family is there the say of women and children as well is increasing sir okay uh you have for masters and uh bachelor's in civil engineering and also you have done something on product design yes can you tell me what you have done on product design sir uh i had a minor in product design which had one subject every semester while the major in civil engineering had around four subjects per semester so we have read about the ergonomics the basic concepts of product design the basic processes of the product design and how to test these uh products so these things were covered in the product so if you are designing a product what are the uh factors that you take into consideration sir first factor would be the need of the users we need to study what exactly users want we have to take uh we have to uh do some surveys and uh get to the exact needs of the customers so secondly we have to uh we have to make product in terms of that should be ergonomically sound it should it should be perfect with the human body sir thirdly we have to uh go to various iterations of the product when we make again iterations iterations so that we can refine our product to suit the needs of the users one of the factors which is aggravating heat in urban areas is the extreme use of concrete yes as a civil engineer how do you look at this and what are the alternatives to this sir as a civil engineer the grass creek is a good solution to the normal concrete grass creek is a type of concrete which uses the greenery also there are squares of concrete and in which the soil is filled and we can grow the grass there this can be used in the pavements in malls and in residential areas also this was this would also enhance the percolation of the water as well as greenery sir apart apart apart from this more trees more parks should be are desirable in the urban areas sir if the heat condition continues and this becomes a norm what changes do you expect in the construction design style and everything so there would be problems in the curing of the concrete we would need more and more water if temperature was on increasing and secondly sir uh the nature of concrete and its curing also changes with the temperature so these things we have to keep in mind going forward when the climate changes and the temperature rises so okay uh delhi belongs to which zone of uh earthquake sir it belongs to zone 3 3 or 4 3 sir how does the construction approach change from zone to zone with respect to earthquakes sir these the different zones define the earthquake hazard to the that are possible to a building so when going for the high earthquake zone areas we need to provide some specific measures to the buildings for example we have to provide more ductility to the structures in terms of more reinforcement and also we have to provide base isolation to the buildings so that the vibration from the ground do not uh do not get into the building and and destructed apart from it tuned mass dampers can also be used in major earthquake hazard areas when we go to the lower earthquake zones the need of reinforcement is less the need of columns and beams is also less and their size also decreases sir what kind of answers do you write on board so i majorly write answers related to society and the current events contemporary can you tell me the last question that you have responded to sir last question i responded that what is the major problem of youth in the world what was your response sir in my view i wrote that the social media the distraction that the social media is creating is one of the major issues that social media is a bad thing it's something that we should not have so social media is desirable so it is a fantastic thing where we can we can express our views but the distraction is that it has been creating and the negative content on the social media is harmful sir do you think uh uh kora as a platform has declined the quality of questions and answers have declined over the years see over the years the number of users have been increasing on kora but the quality of discussions and the type of answers if you see has it declined or improved sir earlier very good uh writers like balaji vishwanath and sian karnan they were very uh active on those kora but nowadays our good quality writers have been declining sir and their activity has also been declining on the kora sir mr yaks sir who was yaks what is the meaning of yaks sir in my theology yaksas are the protecting deities of natural resources like forest lakes rivers etc and also treasury they are mentioned in the literature of jennism buddhism and hinduism so as well as in southeast asian country's temples they are also found at the gates of the temples uh if we go to mahabharata there is a specific story about yaksha prasna so in that story if i ask you who was yaks sir yaksha in mahabharata he was guarding a lake from where the udister went on to patch the drinking water any connection between yaksha and yudhister i beg your pardon sir any connection between yaksha and yudhister sorry sir i am not available can you recollect some of the questions he asked yudhister or pandavas yes sir sir yaksha asked yudhister that what is more heavier than earth then the yudhister replies that mother is heavier than earth then uh yaks ask him that who what is uh higher than the sky when yudhister replies that father is higher than the sky then yaks ask what is i am asking more i am asking just kim asharyam sorry sir i am not available asharya asharya kya hai that was one of the question sorry sir i am not okay you mentioned social media what is the difference between social media and traditional media say newspapers or television new channels so social media uses the internet and online platforms to or disseminate the information news what is the difference traditional media also uses social media and all these platforms all the newspapers they are on these platforms so what is the difference sir i am not sure about the exact difference okay life is a marathon not a sprint you are a runner yes sprint so as a sprint runner what is your comment on this life is a marathon not a sprint sir marathon is a long race 42.1 to 42. something kilometers while sprint is 100 and 200 meters so life is a marathon in the sense that there are many problems in our life we have to come over those in sprint sir we use very intense activity but in life as a marathon we have to continuously perform well in terms of consistency and perseverance which is also required in the marathon you have studied sociology yes tell me should India allow same sex marriage so India should allow the same sex marriage as a student of sociology how do you see if india allows this to impact the society what kind of impact we will have on our society sir there would be there would be reaction from the societal side the orthodox section of the society would criticize it this is first second is the there would be empowerment of people because they would be able to assert their rights from as current as currently they are not allowed to have same sex marriage so people will be able to express their views and there would be more equality in the society as well as the institution of marriage would undergo changes because in heterogeneous family we have male and female and there is also sexual division of labor but in same sex marriage there would be equal division of labor and this would also empower the different sections like women if we have same sex marriage what about procreation so procreation would be a difficulty but with the rise of technologies like IVF etc this can be overcome sir and by through adoption also daily high court has been hearing a case regarding marital rape do you think marital rape should be criminalized sir it should be criminalized because it is handling the rights of the women it is leading to their exploitation but there would be some administrative challenges in enforcing the marital rape sir what is the role of NGOs in society sir NGOs provide welfare services to the citizens as where the government is not able to provide adequate social services NGO fulfills those loopholes and bridge those gaps sir so why is the government after NGOs lots of NGOs are being banned therefore funding is being choked so this is because of the problems from the NGO side they are not properly following the regulations and the rules of the FCRA as well as according to a report majority of the NGOs in India are not filing income tax returns on time sir there have been issues in the regulations okay my last question what do you mean by judicial review sir it means the assessment of the laws and administrative steps by the by the judiciary by checking its constitutes constitutionality sir thank you thank you so yaks what's amroha famous for i am currently amroha is famous for is its dholaks and mangoes so the mango season has started number it is going to start very soon when from let me start around june okay are these mangoes also being exported or yes ma'am these are exported these are exported so is there anything which is left for indian consumption or everything is exported no no ma'am a little part is exported but majority of the part remains in india for the consumption of the local people okay but i think there was some issue going on with the exports of mangoes recently it was in news about the quality and other stuffs compliances any information on that when i'm not sure about the recent development but there have been bans on export of indian mangoes to the europe because of phytosanitary measures okay okay coming to civil engineering when you said that you were into product design so if your product is say building then how would you ensure about the quality of that building from the safety point of view when product design as a discipline complement the civil engineering part man one the engineers are talk in terms of the structural stability its strength etc while product design as a discipline it emphasizes on the interaction between the product and the consumers on the other hand so both the disciplines complement each other in terms of building when we see it through the perspective of product design we see that the size of the room would be how much the length of the columns and the height of the columns would be how much but that would also you know somewhere touch upon the quality aspect also there has to be balance between the design and the safety of the structure as well yes so sometimes there could be instances where the design is not you know goes well in terms of you know the safety of the structure so how do you balance that out so are there any protocols are there any parameters we have indian standard sports for the construction of the buildings but when there is a contradiction between the safety and the design aspect i think the priorities would be given to the safety of the building so you must have heard about this gurdgaon building case where the floors fell you are familiar with that yes so where you know we have the builders must have gone wrong or the construction company must have gone wrong have you studied about it what went wrong there i'm not aware about the exact details of the case man okay but the way it fell as a civil engineer you must be having some kind of idea that what could have gone wrong man from the maintenance side there were problems in that specific case the residents have been complaining about the cracks in the structures which from the builders have not have not focused on and when it collapse when the when upper floor collapse the lower floor or could not no but then why were those cracks appearing that is what my question is man it can be it it can be because of many factors like give us some examples and for example if the proper cement and aggregate ratio is not there in the concrete it also leads to cracks if the proper nominal length nominal depth of the reinforcement is not provided in the columns and beams it also leads to cracks man what about the quality of water quality of cement any are these also some of the factors yes man quality of cement and water also mentioned so how do you test water quality whether it is right for constructing that building or not when we construct we conduct some test based on the ph value of the water are these mandatory man that i'm not sure okay fine okay india is a country with one of the highest populations and when you go on the road there are walkers and now that we are in the process of building highways expressway high speed roads then don't you think that we are doing at the cost of pedestrians then pedestrians should be provided but the national highways and expressways are also very needed in our country so there should be a balance between the space provided to the pedestrian and also to the highways and the roads can you give us one example where this you know balance has been made and the pedestrians security also and their convenience is also kept in mind by designing a road or a expressway or a highway may be from UP man i'm not aware about the okay not a problem okay if you have the option of changing one thing in the history of mankind what would that be and why ma'am i would say the way the socialization has been of the humans i would like to change it the kind of stratification that we have in our society in terms of women inequality as well as the discrimination among different sections of the society this socialization part i would like to change in the history of mankind okay over the period of years with the increase in the size of family how has this impacted the financial health of a household in village with respect to their land since you know UP and your area is an agricultural place so how has this impacted ma'am one there has been fragmentation of the land in rural areas the land per capita has been decreasing in 2015 agriculture census it was 1.08 hectare per capita it has been reducing as well as as the families in the rural areas are also emphasizing on the education part of the children so it has also lead to some financial strain on the families in rural area okay one last question this is to do with the SDG goals in order to improve our rankings and SDG goals what all needs to be done as a country which are the areas which should be focusing on most ma'am we have to work on two front one is the capability development in our citizens and second is the providing social services from the government side when we talk about the capability generation we have to focus on the education skill development and also reducing the inequality in our society from the government side we need to ensure that the proper facilities from the for the health services for education like primary school secondary school the rnd expenditure and also the skill development has to be increased okay fine thank you


Jinsons here with today's fandal hurry up breaking down a stud emitterage and a value play for the Saturday only DFS Slate in the stud. It's got to be the big dog Derek Henry back in our lives off of injured reserve And maybe we have question marks around what Henry's usage may be coming off of that foot injury But he's been running for a couple of weeks now had the by way to get even a healthier I think we expect Derek Henry to be pretty close to a full workload for this weekend His salary does account for the question marks here at just $9,000. So Derek Henry facing off with the Bengals I'm pretty keen on going right back to him in his return to the Titans lineup My favorite mid-range play for the Saturday only slate is also running back that is Eli Mitchell facing off with the Packers here We've heard plenty about this Packers rush defense and it's for good reason They did struggle throughout this year and Eli Mitchell is not a guy You want to face when you're struggling to stop the rush Mitchell is at a hundred and eight yards per game And the games he has played with Debo Samuel since George Kittle returned from his injury. He's been effective We saw them ride him in that game. He's had 20 plus carries in six or seven straight games I think it Mitchell makes a lot of sense once again here checking in at just $7,300 As far as value plays go for the Saturday only slated I'm kind of inclined to give Julio Jones a swing here coming off the Titans by week What extra week for Julio Jones to rest up and get that hamstring healthy in back in week 18 Even though there was no Derek Henry we saw Julio Jones get a really good workload for the Titans He had nine targets in that game a new season high for him and for those targets really 16 yards downfield So getting downfield work from Ryan Tannehill this Titans offense may be of more efficient now at Derek Henry back in the fold And Jones is just $5,600. I have my concerns for sure around Julio right now, but I think at that salary I'm okay overlooking those and putting him in my lineup for what should be a fun game on Saturday That's all we got here for today on the FanDuel Hurryup But still plenty more content coming up throughout this week to get you set for what should be a fun Saturday and Sunday of football over on FanDuel


The study found that during the study period, non-original research articles were predominant in the scientific production of the LAC region, and interventional studies were scarce among original articles, while the cross-sectional design predominated. Furthermore, the subgroup analysis revealed that epidemiology and surveillance were the most prevalent research focus. This article was authored by Isabel Espinoza, Victor Cuenca, Ahmed Isagar says, and others.


The Sultan of Sokoto Al-Hajisah at Abu Bukka has assured of continuous collaboration with the United Nations Children and Education Fund and other agencies working on girl child education. A statement from the Sultanate says the assurance was given when he received a UNICEF delegation made up of teams from Abuja, Kano and Sokoto. He also bid farewell to a retiring UNICEF chief of field office in Sokoto, Muhammeden Fall. Hello, hope you enjoyed the news. Please do subscribe to our YouTube channel and don't forget to hit the notification button so you get notified about fresh news updates.


So, yeah, as Dan said, I'm about to depart, I thought it's a good idea to sort of think about what might be some lessons of the program that took place while I was here. This is certainly some work that's shared with Craig Beaumont and Ashok Bhatia and so the three of us are collectively responsible for it. So just maybe a brief outline. Of course, I think everybody in the room sort of knows why Ireland got into a crisis and needed a program, so I won't really go into that. I thought it would be good to maybe just remind ourselves of what the situation was like back then and what was the program strategy and then look at how the program worked in practice, what are the remaining challenges and what are some of those preliminary lessons that can be learned from the experience and it'll be good then also to hear from you what you think are some of the lessons. So maybe starting with what was the program strategy, I think the first point to make is that even before the program started, there was already a substantial, large response by the authorities in Ireland that preceded the program, so the crisis really started in 2008 and for two years there's been heavy policy responses in the financial space. You had the government guarantee, you had commercial real estate loans going to NAMR, nationalization of banks and capitalization of banks, there was already a substantial fiscal response and same in the structural area, you had the Croke Park Agreement, so there were already tons of things happening but then still by the end of 2010, the deposit flight and net repayments of debt continued in such a way that Ireland found it impossible to maintain market access and so as a result needed to seek official financing. So the challenges that were there at the beginning of the program at the end of 2010 were that already public debt was very high, it was already over 90% and despite actions to capitalize the banks, it was still unclear how much more was needed. There were sort of rough estimates of 35 billion. The public deficit had become very large because it was very dependent in part on stamp duties taxes and so when the economy collapsed and there were no more real estate transactions, that was one large cyclical factor and generally recovery prospects were in doubt. So basically what we confronted was this famous sovereign bank loop. I thought it was just a good idea just to remind ourselves what that was and in a way perhaps even though the economy is much in a much better state today it's something that could still be there with very large public debt. Basically the point is that with the uncertainty of how much fiscal cost, fiscal support was needed for the banks, you had questions about can the sovereign continue to access the market because the sovereign will have to service all that debt that the sovereign is taking on to help the banks. So this then raises concerns about debt sustainability which then in turn makes it very difficult for banks to access the market because banks are always constrained by the sovereign in which they reside and so you have that loop and then in addition you have these other factors floating around in the background. Would there be bank creditor burden sharing? Would there be perhaps a wider private sector involvement policy? So there were these announcements in Deauville. There were questions around the durability of ECB funding and generally sort of a European solution to the crisis. So the existence of this sovereign bank loop really clouded the recovery prospects. So I'll spend a minute here on this chart, it's a little bit complicated but if you take the walk with me, let's say starting in the top bank health and we'll take the green route first which is with bank health put into question there were large bank support needs which put into question public debt sustainability in turn affecting the confidence of households and businesses who were starting to become very reluctant to spend and invest which in turn depressed growth. Now depressed growth meant that income and employment would be depressed which in turn affected households and small, medium enterprises' ability to service their loans further depressing bank health and also there's an indirect route through the property market if there's sort of a depressed household and SME sector then the demand for property goes down which in turn lowers collateral values which again banks' bank balance sheets look less healthy than they are with higher value property collateral. So that's one way of the relationship between banks, the public sector and growth and households and then the other way around is that with banks in weakened state their ability to lend is reduced so as a result households and SMEs are not investing, are not consuming this affects domestic demand, brings growth down this in turn lessens the revenue base for the government which further undermines questions about public debt sustainability and therefore also the funding costs for banks go up again as I mentioned banks are very dependent on the sovereign under which the jurisdiction in which they operate so you have these sort of multiple complicated interrelations of balance sheets and flows between the various sectors that really fed these pernicious feedback loops so against this context then the priorities of the programme were first of all to address the immediate need which is to restore financial stability and sort of triage the patient and do the first aid and then also secondly to have as an ultimate goal access for Ireland to regain market access by reducing uncertainties with respect to financial system viability with respect to public debt sustainability and with respect to the sustained economic recovery so we'll take a look at both first the immediate need so of course a large wall of money was made available 85 billion of which the Irish authorities themselves contributed 17.5 to restore confidence to show the market here we have resources available to deal with that and then to recapitalise banks because there was all this uncertainty you know how healthy are the banks people didn't want to do business with the banks in order to restore confidence in the banks it was really important to get to the bottom of the vulnerabilities in the balance sheet so this is when the famous Pika the stress test in 2011 was conducted it was done with very credible assumptions it was done by an independent third party and so as a result was successful and served as a model how to restore confidence including the communication around it which is very important and so they were further actions you know the ECB made a helpful statement in terms of the durability of the funding it has provided there was a plan for the banks you know viable non viable banks and so forth that helped to bring the situation under control an important aspect was and I'll deal with that in the next slide to clarify the burden sharing by bank creditors of course in Ireland everyone is kidney aware of that situation there were lots of questions whether senior unsecured debt issued by banks should be bailed in or not with arguments on sort of both sides you know of the argument that if you did that it could have a large adverse impact in European banks who were holding that debt but also possibly in Irish banks because all the Irish banks whether they are deemed viable or non viable might be all lumped together and if one of them is bailing in this senior unsecured debt then perhaps it may be difficult for the others to access the market so that was one side of the argument the other side of the argument said well these are people who took the risk they were paid handsomely for that risk and they should bear the consequences of taking that risk in the end lots of discussion in the end the program went ahead without this bail in although Europe has since then changed you now have rules that clearly lay out the hierarchy of risk takers on bank liability so there's been a change and perhaps that there's already implicit first lesson I'll get to that towards the end now as we move away from the immediate sort of policy response when the program started there were other issues as I was saying that the program sought to deal with so in the financial sector it was not only recapitalizing banks but once you had done that you needed to do something with the banks you needed to restructure them to make sure that they would once again become viable contributors to economic growth there was downsizing the famous deleveraging that was in order to bring bank's assets in line with the liabilities that they would be able to maintain over the medium term and then of course as non-performing loans went up it was important to resolve them so as to restore the health of the banks maybe just a moment here on why is it so important that impaired loans are resolved there's one channel which is if a loan isn't paying the interest that the bank thought it would be paying that's of course there's no income coming in so it affects bank profitability directly but it also affects bank profitability indirectly because the funding costs of banks are higher so if there are lots of non-performing loans the market doesn't really know is that balance sheet healthy or not you know what's the degree of provisioning is it appropriate or not so that uncertainty will make lenders wholesale funders whoever make hesitant to lend to banks so they will ask for a higher return which of course increases the costs of the banks also undermining their profitability of course there are other reasons in terms of you know the assets if there's uncertainty about the underlying asset then that asset isn't being maintained properly and investment is subdued so growth is actually less so there are lots of other reasons why dealing with impaired loans is important but anyway so we've got the financial sector of course supervision and regulation was thought to be a contributor to the crisis so dealing with that was important and then the other factors fiscal consolidation I already mentioned the high deficit so that needed to be dealt with and it was decided to do that it was large and front loaded although not as large as in other countries so it was faced over a longer period so as to take into account the harmful effect that fiscal consolidation has on the economy so on the one hand it's needed because you need to restore an equilibrium in the fiscal sector but on the other hand you don't want to do it in such a manner that it you know sets off an adverse feedback loop there were also some structural reforms I really won't focus on them from our perspective there was lots of stuff that could be done but there wasn't necessarily sort of macro critical in terms of addressing the reasons of the crisis the causes of the crisis so the financial sector maybe I already talked about these things so why don't I skip this move on to fiscal consolidation again that's just more detail I want to leave enough time for the discussion so I'll be skipping some of those slides especially when I already mentioned them maybe just one point to make here on containing fiscal prosyclicality there is this issue on and in fact I guess it's in the current debate as well on the sort of the headline deficit as a percent of GDP versus the absolute amount of effort so at the fund we have often stressed to focus on the absolute amount and to not be overly preoccupied by what that means in terms of deficit as a percent of GDP by focusing on the absolute amount there is a way to measure whether you have stuck to your objectives whether you have stuck to what you said you would do so it helps to build credibility and if the world turns out better that means tax revenue is more than anticipated that means you have a buffer and that buffer is important because on the one hand there's always a lot of uncertainty with projections for Irish GDP numbers and also that buffer helps to get to the medium term goal of structural balance and on the other hand if things turn out worse that means tax revenue is less than projected and that means you would miss your deficit as a percent of GDP target but you let the automatic stabilizers work and avoid an excessive tightening that could ultimately trigger a negative feedback loop so maybe just to emphasize at the end of this section that there are these trade-offs and that the program tried to take into account that fiscal consolidation on the one hand was necessary but on the other hand there was a desire to allow domestic demand to recover and avoid excessive tightening in the deleveraging space on the one hand one did need to bring banks' assets in line with their liabilities because central bank funding can't be provided forever so there needs to be a path of transition to the new equilibrium but that needed to also be phased because if you insist on a disposal that's too quick then you can have a fire sale situation where you cause more losses than is necessary and same in the loan resolution space that on the one hand you need to deal with it you don't want the banks for some of the reasons that I just mentioned already you don't want the banks to become zombie banks with large amounts of unresolved assets for extended period but on the other hand you need to give time for this restructuring to be durable and to be at a minimum cost so those are some of the trade-offs that we constantly dealt with and it's always hard to know ex ante where exactly you are in these trade-offs so it's decision making under uncertainty so let's have a look at how things worked in practice I think the first point here to make is that we didn't really anticipate how bad the Euro crisis was going to be it was much worse than expected so you can see here some of the sovereign bond yields of four countries in Europe they spiked up significantly and in Ireland the program started at the end of 2010 by mid 2011 you can see that the yields are incredibly high this is around the time that I came and I remember the first thing that I heard everybody was saying the program isn't working the program isn't working, look at the yields and well I'm happy to now see the extension of this chart the yields have come down I think today's 10-year bonds are below 2.5% so of course there are lots of factors that contributed to that, Irish specific and beyond but so what else happened? Well growth, as a result of the Euro area crisis growth turned out to be weaker than had been anticipated so that first row there GDP shows what growth turned out to be so in 2010 minus 1.1 2.2, 0.2, minus 0.3 and in brackets you see the difference to what we had projected so in 2010 this is a projection that was made at the beginning of the program in 2010 actually the economy declined even more than was anticipated in 2011 there was a positive surprise significantly 1.3% and then 2012 and 2013 disappointed relative to projections now it should be said that the book hasn't been closed in 2013 yet just like lots of people in this room we anticipate that the numbers for 2013 may be revised upwards and so that disappointment that you can see there may not be quite as large but so some of that of course as you can see there was driven by the patent cliff that had a larger than anticipated impact on exports now oh what happened here okay well the lines you can just interpolate them in that orange area the point of this slide really is to show so it shows sort of three variables employment, house prices and investment and the two dotted lines that are on either side of that orange rectangle indicate on the left hand side the start of the program and on the right hand side the 2012 June 2012 you know banking union and announcement by the ECB whatever it takes so those were key moments that really contributed to the turnaround in Europe and in Ireland but clearly Ireland managed also to differentiate itself in part because of having built up a lot of credibility and so you know these years 2.5% are a good reflection of that so financial sector progress there's been a lot significant recapitalization banks you know caught here one capital it's very high provisioning guidelines have been tightened there was the balance sheet assessment and banks took that into account and increased their provisions there was significant deleveraging that the program was adjusted to respond to concerns by the authorities that the deleveraging targets weren't set properly so there were sort of lots of fine tuning as we went along so provision was strengthened I guess we can get back to some of those issues later maybe one issue that is still a very is the areas in this case here you see mortgage areas you see how they kept on increasing throughout the program period so it's really only in late 2013 that you saw an initial decline of some of the areas I see the time slipping away so maybe I'll sorry I'll skip this one here just the point about the insolvency reforms they took some time to implement and the fixing of the famous done judgement was somewhat contingent on that so that explains perhaps some of the delay in bringing mortgage areas down but then when this the famous March was implemented that's the mortgage areas restructuring targets that really seemed to get things moving in 2013 so they were introduced in early 2013 and since then banks have been working on that of course they knew that in parallel the insolvency framework was being implemented and so that provided an additional incentive for them to come to bilateral agreements with their borrowers because they might have thought that a mutually preferable arrangement can be found on a bilateral basis as opposed to relying on the insolvency framework but still major work remains with a total of non-performing loans of about 27% of all loans here just the point being that fiscal kept on track despite growth shortfalls so there was really a considerable fiscal effort of course at a cost but that allowed the Irish to maintain credibility and bring down interest costs which is so important in order to ensure a sustainable public debt load part of the program focused on the fiscal framework to strengthen that fiscal rules were strengthened you had the EU fiscal compact going on at the same time the Irish fiscal advisory council was created their expenditure ceilings in place and transparency is generally enhanced also helpful were Euro area support and policies so the loans that island the official loans that island had taken out from Europe margins on them were reduced so interest rates came down again important contributor to making the debt more sustainable because it's not only the number that matters how big your debt is but it also matters when that debt is due so the maturity extension that happened in the summer of 2013 for EFSF and EFSM loans was again an important contributor to make debt more sustainable and also the famous promissory no transaction really allowed island to access low cost target to financing for an extended period which again also helps to make it more sustainable as long as the government bonds that the central bank holds are being sold according to the established schedule I've already mentioned these key turning points there in general Euro area crisis fighting the June 29th banking union and all it takes announcements sorry this also didn't come out so clearly this was going to show you how island's target to balance has declined quite a bit from what is that June 2012 to March 2014 you have a huge reduction from about I have to tell you because you can't see it from around 100 billion euros in June 2012 to around 55 so significant reduction half and that is also coinciding with the reduction in Irish bond deal so so you know quite some success here and as usual both on the downside in the crisis and on the upside usually effects are felt in financial variables first they are the ones that react first and real variables take longer to react island then successfully took advantage of these positive market developments and reentered the market step by step very skillfully taking advantage of some of these announcements that took place with the first treasury bill issuance shortly after the summer 2012 announcements and then reopening some issues having syndicated bond issues and finally getting regular bond auctions back which in turn also helped to get these upgrades by Moody's and SNP and so forth which took comfort in the fact that as interest rate was coming down the debt was becoming more sustainable and allowed them to give ratings upgrades and the banks followed right along with the sovereign with you know these are just a couple of mostly covered bond issues but also the black one is the Bank of Ireland senior unsecured bond issue you can see how also here as the sovereign recovered that allowed banks to recover to some extent as well so what are the remaining challenges debt is still very high last year we estimate it was 124% of GDP and that will unfortunately require sustained primary surpluses for quite some time to allow paying back the debt directly but at the same time also hoping for GDP to improve that number as well and so the process of expenditure reforms and tax base broadening would need to continue in order to allow that to happen banks capacity I was talking about the high NPL number actually still affects banks capacity to support the economy so that needs to be resolved so that they can help make this a investment to help promote investment in the economy essentially of course with very high private debt households have 200% of their disposable income in household debt that remains a challenge because households you know there's actually very high savings rate in Ireland but all these savings are diverted towards paying debt and as you pay off the debt you're not really contributing to growth so that balance sheet repair presumably is going to continue for some time and then of course raising employment from low levels remains an important challenge these are just some detailed slides on the challenges but let me get to the last section here so we have some time to discuss and that is what are the preliminary lessons that I talked about at the beginning I didn't mention at the very beginning so let me say it now there will be a separate exercise by a completely independent team in the IMF that will conduct an ex post evaluation and they will draw their own lessons from the program they will check on us they will check on everybody how it went and so that will be the final account so therefore these are just preliminary so this is not intended to be a whitewash it's not intended to be a greenwash it's just a sort of a look back so maybe the first point is that the program bought some time that was used wisely for reforms and of course the resources and the confidence that the program brought with it allowed the authorities to implement quite a range of significant fiscal and financial reforms and that was also fortunately accompanied by significant reforms in the Euro area so the scale of some of these problems especially with respect to debt sustainability and the non-performing loans was reduced as a result of this problem maybe then the second point to make here for the overarching theme of the program is the importance in arresting pernicious feedback loops you have all these negative interactions between balance sheets going on so just to give one example there's always a lot of emphasis on the negative impact that fiscal consolidation has on growth we know that it has a negative impact it's always hard to estimate the quantity of what the quantitative impact is but one should not focus on that in isolation because fiscal consolidation is taking place in the larger economy so what you have going on at the same time is banks that are not landing households that are not borrowing because they are servicing their debt so there are lots of other factors happening at the same time that undermine growth so therefore it is extremely important to try and arrest these negative feedback loops both through domestic policies but in a monetary union also with the help of the partners in that monetary union with respect to the program one lesson that the fund had already learned from the Asian crisis and tried to apply in Ireland was macro-criticality of policies so in the Asian crisis the fund had lots of conditions on all sorts of things that we didn't really have lots of experts to deal with and also it was hard for us to follow it was hard for the authorities to focus their attention because there were so many different conditions so one key lesson was for us to focus policy-making on the key factors that contributed to the crisis that were significant causes in the crisis and that needed to be addressed in order to make sure that the same kind of crisis cannot occur again and to bring the country out of the crisis so there were lots of things in my three years here lots of you guys, lots of people came up to me wouldn't it be nice to do this, wouldn't it be nice to do that? Yes, there are lots of economic rationales to do all sorts of things but from our point of view it was important to stay focused on what really is important to make sure that gets carried through then another sort of lesson adaptability so I mentioned earlier the deleveraging targets were changed so early on in the program there were targets based on loan-to-deposit ratios it was hoped that by having targets like that banks would sort of bring down their loan assets and deleverage on the basis of that but instead what happened was that there was competition amongst the banks in the deposit markets and deposit rates went up and that was not what was intended and so as the program went along this was then changed to focus more on the net stable funding ratio which is a requirement that sort of is scheduled to come in through Basel III regulations anyway so it was important to be able to recognize problems in the design and to adapt and change safeguards were quite important so not to have fire sales both in the deleveraging space but also in the sale of state assets it was quite important to make sure that we wouldn't be forcing fire sales prosyclicality I already talked about that was important to avoid sort of introducing more problems by excessive tightening early on that could have resulted in a negative feedback loop so it was quite important to have some of these safeguards in place to deal with these trade-offs that I talked about earlier ownership was very important the authorities took a very strong stake in the program what we said all the time was true we had negotiated the overall envelope of the consolidation but it was up to the authorities to decide how to get there of course we would have opinions on that and we would express these opinions but it was up to the authorities to decide how to get there and that ultimately meant that they owned the program and that they executed it and saw it through and made sure that these measures were actually taken even if sometimes they may have been a more efficient solution or some kind of solution that we might have preferred so this ownership was very important and also arguably helped buy and in turn helped social cohesion although I suspect that might become part of the discussion with respect to the financial crisis a key lesson is in a systemic bank crisis speed and decisiveness are very important so early on in the crisis between 2008 to 2010 it appeared that the policy response was based on the assumption that banks have a liquidity problem as opposed to a solvency problem for example the guarantee is one example of that so one lesson could be that it's important to err on the side of caution and think that it is a solvency you can never decide this when you're in the middle of it of course but if you're cautious and think that there could be solvency problems then you catch them earlier you can act early on and prevent problems from becoming worse and so you have the traditional once you've identified viable banks you recapitalize them, restructure them, restore to functionality and the non-viable banks need to be resolved and the sooner that takes place the quicker the economy recovers but of course it's not always easy to make that distinction and maybe just a point there that recapitalization by itself is not sufficient it's important like it happened here in Ireland that it must be followed by reforms fiscal policy here the point really is that so fiscal policy was phased in Ireland compared to some of the other countries in Europe as a matter of fact the 3% deficit target that had originally been set for 2014 was stretched out to 2015 and some people argued that it's necessary actually to keep consolidation you know more upfront and quicker to make sure that the turnaround happens and that actually all that consolidation is actually carried out in order to restore sustainability but Ireland is an example where you can have a phased consolidation and maintain the confidence of the market at the same time and in fact re-access the market despite that phased consolidation so it arguably did work thus far in terms of accessing the market at very low rates okay I mentioned these other points already now with respect to debt of course the point being that debt and growth matter so you know this phased consolidation so of course an effort to try and bring down debt without killing growth too much but also with respect to burden sharing the key point being here that risk takers should be allowed to incur losses so that they take gains on the upside they must take losses on the downside and that's important not only from a sovereign debt sustainability point of view but also from a political sustainability point of view because as you remember in 2011 there was a lot of political debate around the discussion of the bank debt in fact that I guess hasn't quite vanished yet and so a formal framework as has now been established in Europe actually helps to set the expectations right so if a formal framework had been in place in 2010 it would have been much easier for Ireland to bail in senior unsecured debt because that's what would have been expected so this framework that's now in place should be helpful and maybe the last point being that engagement was quite important from our perspective both you know within the trigger for the IMF it was a new construct to be working with other partners the ECB and the Commission we were quite intensively had long debates that's where all my wrinkles and gray hairs come from sitting all night trying to collaborate to seek common positions and also then to cooperate with the authorities which you know were very competent and had established this ECU external program compliance unit that was for me I had worked on a lot of program countries it was a great invention to have one go-to unit that would help in the cooperation and communication and then also of course stakeholder dialogue and media contact were quite important in terms of hearing what people have to say listening to them understanding how macro policies drive considerations in the day-to-day life and also in turn trying to explain why certain decisions were made so that's it, thanks very much much appreciated happy to answer any questions thank you


Welcome to Toffy TV, it is the Everton News Daily as we still bask in the glory of a win at the Walker Stadium or the King Power Stadium rather at the weekend. Marco Silva has praised his front four. He said that we go out to win every game as you think we've already seen haven't we the intent in every single game to win the match. He said it's nice to see the fluidity of the attacking players and how we can cause lots of teams problems this season. He said they create enchanters, the front three and it's important that they link up with Guilfe Sigurd and who of course scored the winning goal at the weekend. It was a new front four for Everton at the weekend. It was a dynamic front four obviously with Charleston playing through the middle. Benard starting out on the left and Theo Walcott on the right hand side and then obviously supported by Guilfe Sigurd and behind him. I think that Charleston through the middle gives us that extra bit of pace that Jank Towson doesn't really bring.  Marco Silver also praised Benard and said there's a lot more to come from the Brazilian wide man. He said that when he gets up to full speed the quality will get better and better and I think we can all see that his performance at the weekend was better than his performance against Southampton on Tuesday night. I think he's probably 75% at the moment once he gets up to 100% I think that level will go up again because he's a fantastic footballer is Benard. Obviously you've got the pace of Theo who on another day could have ended up with a couple of goals on Saturday but he's always a threat with his pace and his direct run. It is exciting to have a front four the way we've got at the moment and then of course off the bench you've got Jank Towson, you've got Adamola Luckman, you've got the ability to change it up a little bit there. Obviously there's Dominic Alverloon as well behind them so it's going to be interesting to see how that pans out. For me that needs to be the front four for the time being anyway and let's see if we can get a pattern of play going with them. More rumours today that Omanias will be allowed to leave the club in January. He was omitted from the 18 again at the weekend. Everton apparently in talks with Galatasaray for Neas's lone move with a view to a permanent deal. Won't be any surprise if he goes out in January. Everton already being linked with moves for other strikers so it won't be a surprise to see Neas go out the door. But one story that's doing the rounds in Turkey which did surprise me today is that there's talks of Jank Towson returning to Turkey in January and maybe back to Besiktas. I personally can't see this happening yet. I think Jank will still score goals for Everton. I think we probably have to change the way we play very slightly when he plays. Maybe the make-up of the midfield needs to be a little bit different to get the best out of him. But I think with Bernard off the left I think he would get a lot of goals that way. But obviously there's Richard Charleston who's challenging for him to start and place up front now. So that's an interesting one because obviously he hasn't been here a year yet. And he's played well for the most part this season. The goals just haven't flowed yet. But who's to say that he's not going to get back in soon and bang them goals in. He's certainly harmful when he comes on and he knows where the net is. So for me that one I don't really buy into that and I couldn't imagine ever letting two strikers go out in January unless they were bringing in two in. Because at the minute I don't think Dominic Alvaluin is quite ready for it. But we'll have to wait and see. One player who won't be coming to Everton in January is Zeech. I'm Zeech at Ajax. According to his agent he doesn't think we're good enough for him. He said he should avoid going to Everton and move to a club like Liverpool instead. They were the better side. He thinks he's far too good for us. So there you go mate. Fair enough. You don't want to come. You don't want to come. Bocking you do. But we'll have to say I don't know whether Marcel Brands is interested in him or not. He's been linked with us for a number of years now. But his agent doesn't fancy Everton apparently. And finally Everton's under 21 side beat Doncaster in the Premier League Cup. Despite having 10 men after Matty Fold just sent off in the first half of this game. He won the game 3-0 with goals from Kyle John, Nathan Broadhead and Nathaniel Marchello. He gave the Blues a 3-0 victory. David Unsworth said he was very pleased. It was a thoroughly professional performance despite having only 10 men. So well done to the under 21 side. Everton's younger players continuing to represent the club brilliantly at all levels. They're success which is good and hopefully more players will develop and be involved in that first team squad soon. There you go. That's the news daily. If you haven't subscribed please do so. Don't take a minute. If you want more videos get over and join us on Patreon. And it's the final few days now before we do the zip wire for Everton in the community. If you can, sponsor us. A couple of quid would be fantastic a pound would be great. All the people you've already done it thank you very much. We head towards our target. So the last few days if you can, dig into your pockets and donate. Give your money to Everton in the community. It's a fantastic charity. More stuff on the Everton official website about the way that Everton in the community does. So check them out as well. Thank you for watching. See you soon on Toffy TV.