Thank you. Good afternoon. It's a great pleasure to be joining this seminar, which I have been enjoying for the last two quarters. And today I just want to make a very simple presentation of the options for Brazil regarding net zero. Now net zero is a great concept. It's something that is very transparent. And ultimately we all know it's essential because the effects in terms of global warming of carbon, they are cumulative. So as long as you put more carbon, you're going to get more warm. And this has, of course, serious consequences for the planet. It is possible that at some point you may have actually to remove carbon. And this something that a lot of people in Stanford are working these days. So the way I structured the presentation is first to try to look at the global emissions and where Brazil stands in global emissions, then look at some of the options of Brazil in terms of clean energy sources, which of course are essential if you want to reduce emissions. And then also who are the users and what are the choices and the speed that you may want to introduce some changes in addition to what you already have.  We are much lower emissions than say the US, Canada, Australia, the big ones, but also European countries, including those countries that don't rely a lot on coal like Germany or Korea is not European, I learned, but relies on coal a lot. So as a CO2 per capita, very low, if you look at CO2 per GDP, you also do quite well, not as well as some of the countries that most of GDP come from the service sector, like France and other very developed countries, but certainly comparing with other developing countries, like India, China, Turkey, if you put Mexico, let alone the ones that have rely a lot in fossil fuels like South Africa and Russia, you're also quite low. I did this a little beautiful map. It shows here, Brazil, very little column for that. So in this sense, it's very good. And if you think in terms of what you have to do, it shows very clear what we have to do because the big difference between Brazil and the world, and here are the two pies, is that most of our emissions come from what is called agriculture, forestry and other land uses, which means basically agriculture, especially livestock and deforestation. If you look at the world, this is just 24% a quarter of emissions. In the case of Brazil, there's 70% of emissions, which means that for most of our GDP, the emissions are just one third for, I would say, some 90% of GDP. This is being contrasted with other countries and the world as a whole, where both industry and electricity, where again, you rely a lot on fossil fuels to generate, they are very important part of their total emissions. So this makes us very clear what are some of our, say, priorities to ensure that we don't have, you go to zero. Now, one point with respect to emissions is that even considering all the Amazon and everything, still our emissions are relatively low. Here is a chart with a lot of information, maybe some of you will get the presentation later. But just one thought is that if you think of all the trees in the Amazon, all the carbon that's there, suppose all of these were burned, not only disappear, but they're burned, they go to the atmosphere.  All the forest in the Amazon is less than five years of emissions from fossil fuels. And actually, all the deforestation in the Amazon contributes with 1%, every year contributes with less than 1% of global emissions. So why I'm saying that? Not because this is not a problem, but first, this is one of the many, many risks of the world. And actually, this is one of the many risks of Brazil, because when you're thinking about climate change, the Amazon is a piece of the puzzle, but perhaps it's not the biggest risk when you think about other forests and if you think about other sources, in addition to fossil fuels. However, this is not to say that deforestation is no problem, very much to the country. Deforestation is a big problem for Brazil. The little map on the top is the map that the UN, the panel on climate change, has put. And it shows what is going to happen to many countries in a two-degree scenario. As they stress, it varies from place to place. In many places, the temperature will go more than two degrees. And in Brazil, this can happen. See a lot of the air in Brazil, you actually have more than two degrees here, particularly in the hottest day. But it doesn't matter, which means that the Amazon is under stress. It will be under stress in a drier, hotter climate. And the Amazon has a tremendous service that it makes for Brazil, which is it is the mechanism to which we can bring moisture from the ocean, from the trade winds, and go through all the forests. And it only goes because the forest, the trees, they transpire. Where you don't have trees, when you don't have this transpiration that makes a local cycle, the moisture just condenses, goes to the river, go back to the sea. And this is why, actually in a lot of subtropical areas in Africa and Australia, you have actually dry areas. In Brazil, the center of the Latin America is not that much dry because we have these, what is called now the rivers in the sky, which are aerial rivers, which are exactly this massive transmission of moisture there. This is important for us, because first, there is where you have our agriculture, which is very important for our economy. And actually for the world, we are a major supplier of food. And you know that where you don't have food, you don't have bees. But also Brazil relies are going to see next a lot on hydropower. And all the rivers in Brazil, they start exactly at the core of our continent, which means that preserving the Amazon is not something that perhaps you make that much of a change after all, just in terms of emissions, but can be dramatic for Brazilians. And this is why this has to be a priority of all of us. Now, this map at the left of the screen shows again the composition. It's like the pie, but with more detail. There's a lot of information in Brazil about these things. The civil society has done incredible work in this respect and the governments too, at least until recently. And here again, we see that most of our emissions come from change of land use and agriculture livestock. Livestock basically, I presume many of you know, because of the called enteric emissions, which means the ruminants when they digest, they generate methane. And methane is tremendously powerful. In the short run, 100 times more powerful than carbon in terms of captured warm. So this is why it's so big and Brazil has a large livestock herd. So, but let's focus on the top of the chart, where you have the several, say, industrial activities, the modern economy that put that way. What you see there is that basically we're talking about 600 megatons of carbon. And it's there where you have to focus together with stopping the deforestation and a lot of things on agriculture that's already being done, but I'm not going to get into detail where you have to address the problems to see how fast you can further reduce our footprint. And as in any, say, modern economy, ultimately, these means electricity, energy in different forms of guises. And when you look here at the table, you'll see this combination and say the partition for the main sources where we use the energy and because of this, we emit. You see there's a first block, which are freight passes and transportation basically. Then there's heavy industry. And then you have household and sanitation. Sanitation, again, is a problem of a methane, because often a solid waste is not adequately treated. And when there's a decompose, it produces methane. And these end up being very harmful for the atmosphere. So, like I said, these will turn around energy. Now, if you look at the energy, why Brazil has such a small footprint, like we saw at the beginning of the presentation, basically, because we rely a lot on renewable energy on different forms. We rely a lot on organic sources. You'll be biofields, it can be wood. We have a huge commercial industry for paper and pulp. And this industry is basically self-sufficient because they use the part of the wood that is not the trees, that is not, that does go directly for the paper or the pulp they use to generate heat for the process. The same thing for the production of sugar and the production of ethanol. We use the, say, the sugarcane up to the last grain. And with this way, you actually, in addition to produce the sugar and ethanol, you also produce electricity as an additional product. So, and in our electricity sources, if you see the little pie at the bottom, you're going to see the 70%, basically two-thirds are hydro. And then we have already quite significant part of wind. And we have a part of a biofuel, because, like I said, you burn the bagasse, which is basically the sugarcane after it extracts the sugar to generate electricity. And then solar is still quite small, but is important. And coal is basically disappearing. We have a tiny nuclear, but you don't see that increasing. Now, it's important before we go in more detail with specific sources to understand the basic of the energy sector in Brazil. It is a continental country, but there is one great advantage even comparing the US. It's an integrated single market with already a good amount of transmission, which means that basically you can be in any place of Brazil and you may be using energy carbon from all sorts of places. And this map you cannot see in detail, but you're going to see the northeast at the right side of the top of the country. You get a lot of green areas. These are basically the wind power. Then you have spread out the solar and the big orange circles are the hydropower. And then you have a Taipu, you have a Belomonte, you have a number of things. And this is why we have all this network, transmission network. It just happened that you learn this transmission network was put there to bring the electricity from the hydropower, hydropower plants to other consumer areas. It turned out that when you got the solar and the wind power, this transmission system provided a wonderful, extremely cheap form to distribute this energy, transmit this energy all over the country. And then why we are in such a good shape when you talk about renewable. Because this being a large country, you have a very interesting correlation between wind, solar and hydropower. The maps at your right show, actually your left, show the seasonal pattern of temperatures, so insulation of rain, so hydropower of wind. And what you see is that during the summer, which in Brazil is December, February, you get a lot of rain and not very much wind. And you get to good insulation. Then this keeps changing. And when you're in the winter, which is the dry season in most places, because those winds that I told you that go over the Amazon, during the winter, they go to Central America. They actually transform and make Central America humid because of this wind from the Amazon. They are not going to the center of Brazil. But at this time is when you have all the winds at the coast. So you'll see at the right side of the map, that's where the red areas mean that you have more wind. And you see in the chart at the top, the right, this fluctuation, the months where most of the energy is provided by either, and then the months that most of the energy is provided by wind. And then also you have a nice, let's say, correlation intraday, which means that we get most of the winds. These are trade winds. They're quite steady, same direction, quite powerful. But they are stronger at night when in Brazil we don't have a sunlight. So this brings a lot of efficiency. Just very quickly, there's much information there, is the two things to keep in mind is that, first, you have a huge potential there. We have 800 gigawatts on shore, and another 700 offshore. And as you see, the capacity factor, which is the productivity of this turbine, is very high. In most places, you'll be around 30-35%. In Brazil, there are often, in several places, there are above 40 and often, this is average over the year. There are seasons where they got to 80% for weeks in a row. So that means that this becomes very cheap energy. The chart in the center will show you the prices for kilowatt hour. For those who are familiar with this number, this is very cheap. This is the range of three cents for kilowatt hour. And now that the currency, the value is even less. Now, the news at the right side is that, if you have, we have to think about that. We don't know what will be the temperature in the coming decades. So if you look at the temperature in coming decades, you see that actually, in some areas, the wind will blow even stronger, which means that it's quite resilient in relation to climate change. The same thing for the solar. You see at the map of the right, quite large area with very pretty good irradiation. It's not the best in the world. If you see in Chile, you get one thing that is pink, which means that even better insulation, there are places in Australia that are even better. But what you get in Brazil is pretty good. And then, of course, you have a lot of lot of territory. So we are still incipient, but there's a little calculation, very simple calculation at the right of the slide that shows that if you were to double the whole production of electricity in Brazil, which is necessary if you think about economic growth and also increasing electrification, these would use a relatively small area in Brazil. We have 800 million actors. You need less than one million actors to basically generate all the energy that you need. And again, at prices that are cheaper than hydro, much cheaper than thermal. And in Brazil, as I was saying, because it's a system that is integrated, most of the things, the distribution companies buy their energy through auctions. Everything is very transparent. Anybody can compute the cost. We have here something that is very important for everybody who has studied the renewable energy. Here we put the opportunity cost, the implicit cost of renewables that are not steady. So when you have this orange part, which is the infrastructure required, what they mean? It means it's all the additional, say, generation capacity that you need, the other contribution from other sources to ensure that you have a steady supply even at night. This is computed using the centralized dispatch system that you have in Brazil that incorporated in quite sophisticated models, all these correlations, the intraday seasonal correlations between the different sources. And so you get the real prices that the real cost that every source can actually has, including if you discount the subsidies, which in the case of solar and winds, or similar to what you have in the US, which means you can buy the, if you are, for instance, a distributed generation, you can buy whatever you have put without pay distribution fees. You have lower transmission rates even for far away projects and so on. So, but if you add these, you put back these subsidies, you still see how competitive these alternatives are. Now, I mentioned a few times the US and Brazil. I think one important thing comparing them is the fact of the kind of regulation. It's interesting, but it's a contrast between US and Brazil. And here it has an impact on the penetration of the different sources. In Brazil, electricity has a federal regulation. So like it said, it's a single market. In the US, it's much more complicated. And for instance, if you have people in Oregon, it's hard for them to sell electricity. It's very easy to sell coal, but it's not that easy to sell electricity to California or others because the regulation is a statewide. In Brazil, the natural guys on the other hand is a statewide and it's very complicated in addition of having a certain monopoly by Petrobras. In the US, you have this federal regulation that makes inter-state trade much easier. I also compare here ethanol and biodiesel, which are going to pass very quickly, but it's important maybe to look at this chart, sorry, the table that shows the proportion of ethanol in total transportation energy in Brazil. It's about 18%. Actually in 2019, it was pretty much 20% of everything that people used for trucks, cars, etc. came from ethanol. In addition to that, you have biodiesel. Now, I'm not going to talk too much about ethanol except in highlighting that the cost is extremely competitive. Even at oil with $40, it's not a problem. At 20, it's a little bit more challenging. And also, if you look at the emissions, it's really a fraction. You get a lot of that because in contrast with corn, actually use very little fossil fuels to get to the ethanol, one of the reasons that I mentioned is because you burn the baguettes. And also, it doesn't use that much space. So it's quite efficient and we plan to double the production in part by improving the productivity by actor and also expanding somewhat. You'll see the use is less than 1% and most of it is in the south. We don't plant sugarcane in the Amazon, but there is a lot of old pasture land that is degraded and you can transform that and actually create a lot of wealth. It's very interesting, even in a rich estate like Sao Paulo, when you moved from, you took some of these old pastures and you transform in ethanol for fuel, you got, you change from an agricultural commodity to an energy commodity is a completely different game. We are getting more and more biodiesel is an important part of the production of soybeans today is actually used to produce the biodiesel and actually the price, it depends again on diesel changes prices a lot, but say in 2016 it was 30, 40% and now it's, until recently it was less than this at $60, they basically break even and we are going to get B15, which means 15% of the diesel there. I mentioned here just as a reference bio kerosene because you have some areas again, degraded areas where you can have palm oil and this can be a very interesting response for the civil aviation. Of course, after COVID, we don't know how this sector will behave, but I think the pressure to continue to get low emissions will be very important. I have just five minutes, so it'll be very quick, but then something that's very important, because I know that many of you are interested in carbon capture. Now in Brazil, in addition to sun, in addition to wind, all of that, we do have a lot of oil and gas. They happen to be at 200 and 300 kilometers from the shore, but our companies have master days is a very deep water 2,000 meters, 6,000 feet, but we have a huge production, very good oil, and in most of these fields you have associated gas and nowadays most of these gas is re-injected. We can use some of this gas and the beauty is that we have technology now to do these actually without putting more carbon in atmosphere. How do you do that with the so-called gas to wire with carbon capture and sequestration? If you have questions, later I can talk more. Basically, you have the turbine next or on the platform and you do with the direct current, high-voltage current, you send these energy to the shore and you re-inject the carbon dioxide, not only the one that is mixed in the gas, and there is a lot mixed in the gas, so you save money not having to separate it because you need very little carbon dioxide in a pipeline, so you can re-inject this, which means that you can produce a lot of energy without emissions of CO2. This is a technology that is already known and which will become much cheaper now that Europe has decided to bat so much in offshore wind. You have, for instance, in the Netherlands and other places that they are taking a lot of energy from 200, 300 kilometers in the sea, so we can apply that and you get a lot of mileage, which is fossil fuel, but with a real, cheap, effective carbon capture. Okay, now just a word. I mentioned quickly the role of biofuel. There's one thing about biofuel. I mean, nature is great, but nature is not necessarily designed to produce fuels to move cars, and also we all know that the internal combustion engine is not very efficient. You have 30% efficiency at the best, which means that actually is not the most efficient way to go around using plants and then transforming fuel. It's very convenient because liquid fuels are very dense in energy, easy to handle, and so on. But we believe that sometime we're going to have the electrification. Here are some computations. What do you mean in terms of a kilometer of area that you'll be free of for additional agriculture or for additional restoration of forests or savannas, which you'll become a sink. I see these happening after 230, 235, but is there, and depending on how you're going to see batteries moving, these will be also very transformational. There's a little number there that shows how much an actual sugarcane, how many miles you'll give. You'll be 60,000 miles, 100 miles if you include electricity that is produced. But if you have an actor of solar panels, you can make a car to run 3 million miles. So it's the order magnitude of difference. Here is also calculation, something that's going on, which is buses. I know in California there's a lot of discussions. In Brazil it works very well. The big advantage, we have big cities. Electric bus have an immediate impact on pollution. They have not so much in emissions. It's affordable. There are many changes. Battery already is something that we need some finance, long-term finance, because you have to change a little bit the current equation of cities, but it's something that is worth more. Now, one of the last things to mention, you'd be this idea that in Brazil is a big country, but you don't have many rails. Very expensive to do rails. There's huge complicated problems of permits and so on. But you have a lot of roads. I'm not showing the map here. We could electrify the roads. And here the idea is, what it likes, not only the electrification, but it's how you can connect these with the digitalization of transportation. Because basically you can have trucks, not with batteries, which is very challenging, but taking this electricity. And they form a platoon. And they come in and out of the platoon every, I don't know, 20, 30 miles if they have to go to a city. And then they can move and work with either diesel or batteries, but for the short run, not for a thousand kilometers. That are some of the trips in Brazil or most of the trips. So this combination, I think, can be an excellent alternative. Very safe, very easy. I'm taking full advantage of digitalization for heavy hauling, very heavy freight. And this can happen. Of course, there's a question of what you do with all the drivers, but you find a way, a solution for that. You can have these in five years or maximum 10 years very easily and a very affordable price. Final thoughts here about the industry. Oh, industry. Industry, I don't think we have a solution for the next very short period. Because even if you move from, say, coal or say, petrol, coke, in terms of emission, to say natural gas, in terms of emission is not a great gain. There is some gain. But also the big emissions, if you've seen this in this table, they are related, not only at energy percent, but of the process itself. To make it still, you have to take oxygen out of the ore, the iron ore. And the way you do with coal is that you combine the carbon in the coal at high temperature and with the oxygen and then become CO2. Nothing we can do about that. The same thing with cement is also calcination. You take the limestone, you heat and it capture the oxygen. And here you go, you add CO2. So the only way to change this is with hydrogen, which I believe in maybe 10 years, you'll be feasible if you continue to have a reduction in the price of electricity, which in Brazil, by what I showed you, is perfectly feasible. We have an unbound amount of energy. And if you get to one cent, one dollar per kilo of hydrogen, whatever, I'm not going to discuss hydrogen here, this is feasible. And this will be the way that will lead us to real significant decarbonization of industry. So if you look again at the table that I very quickly showed at the beginning, what you see is that if you eliminate the deforestation and you do very much to the country, something that is already promised in our Paris Agreement, which is to start a reforestation, and you could have a 12 million actor, already you have 20 million actors in natural reforestation, regeneration of the forest that are better in the areas, you could have actually something very close to a balance. The big challenge, we remain what we do with livestock. And here, all the beds are open because we don't know how the demand for meat will behave in the next 15 years. But even if you continue to have a significant demand for meat, there are a number of technologies that again, I'm not going to discuss here, where you can reduce the emissions or compensate these emissions by increasing the ability of the soils to capture carbon. You're not being fined, but these will give us mileage for 20 or 30 years, so that by 2050, we, with the new technologies, can be very close to a net zero. And all of these will not usually require a lot of money. If you think in terms of a batman cost, actually, they are very low, which means that you have adequate planning, some credit, all of the things, usually you're going to reduce the cost of doing business, you'll be self-financed, although and with the advances that I point here, in the case of Brazil, in contrast with a lot of other countries, fortunately, we don't have a legacy industry. So the cost in terms of displacement, dislocation of people and of capital too, you'll not be that big. So that's the message. Brazil can have a plan. It's a plan that you do good. The first thing is to stop the forestations that you protect the water that you have in our country. And then you have all these steps of continuing to decrease the carbon footprint of transportation, continue the electrification at lower and lower costs, increase our smart greed, and then deal with some of the most complicated heavy industry, which are still important because they still need a lot of houses and they need a lot of steel in Brazil. And you have the resources you're not going to import if you are in the biggest iron ore mines in the world. So let's stop here. I know it was a little bit quick to cover so much material, but I hope you enjoy it. Thank you. Great. Thanks Joakim. That was a terrific tour de force. There was a lot of information. Fortunately, I'm collecting questions. Your last slide partially answered a lot of that. So that was convenient. So I'll start with some more narrow technical questions and then build up to some big picture ones because your talk had plenty of content in both directions. One question that people wondered about is how many emissions of greenhouse gas or equivalents come from bio materials that are trapped behind hydro facilities? Is that a large number in the grand scheme of things given the predominance of hydro electricity generation? How much material? Well, now it's basically stopped. We're not building hydro power anymore. This was really big in the 70s and the 60s. Up to the 90s, we still had some big project and the last one 10 years ago in Bellarmonte and so on. So yes, I don't know if the question of emissions is related to the concrete. There is some concrete, although some is also earth that you have in the dams. In most of the new construction, anything in the last 20 years doesn't have big reservoirs. So we didn't have to use forests or anything like this. This is very interesting because it means that all this correlation that I mentioned has to be managed in a smart way because of course, even if you don't have a reservoir, a dam can have fluctuation one day a week but you don't have for the whole season like we used to have until 20 years ago. Now the proportion of reservoirs and the overall production is small and anything built in the last 20 years doesn't have reservoirs. Great. Another question that you touched on several times was the trade-off between clearing land to grow sugarcane to make ethanol versus just leaving the forest in place. How does that turn out across the full range of areas in Brazil? Well, this is definitely a no-no. Again, most of the sugarcane, like you mentioned, is on old pastures including in São Paulo. There was a time there was a fight in São Paulo between coffee and pastures and so on and then they realized that the sugarcane and it's completely automated. Like I said, it changes completely the way to do. So we do have in most, also in other areas, is again and patterned. Soybean is still used virgini land, okay, is in the savannas, not in the Amazon and there is also a big, say, effort to avoid that. I didn't put in slide but we have mapped about 20 million actors of degraded land, land that has been used by cattle for the last 50 years, that are ready to be used for agriculture. And the truth is that the people from agriculture are really happy with this. I've been traveling in the countryside and everybody is very excited because they realize they can make much more money not clearing new land but just taking these pastures converting to fields. And because why? Because you can continue to have the cattle but in a much more intense way. So they produce three things. They produce two crops plus the cattle in the same place, in the same land. So again, as like I mentioned, the solutions I've been discussing here are solutions that increase the productivity of the economy are not a burden. One benchmark people were asking is deforestation currently decreasing the last five years or so in Brazil or flat or going the other way? It decreased significantly then it was flat for the last four years and then last year and increased it quite a lot and increased by 4,000 kilometers. We have to put in perspective, it's in one of the slides that show it if you compare with the areas burned even in Canada or even in the US. Actually the Amazon is not compared with seven. Now this year it will be 100,000 hectares which is a lot 100 million hectares. So last year there was a worsening and this is why the private sector in addition to society has been adamant that you cannot afford that because we don't want to make the forest fragile. My real concern is in a world that you have a real risk of two or even three degrees. We don't know how the forest you behave. They're big but they may be fragile. So we don't want to fragment it too much. Great. Another question regarding current trends. You did a lot of setting up a possible transition to electric vehicles but how much work has been done on the ground so far on vehicle electrification and has it largely focused on light duty passenger vehicles? You did mention in your technology projections going to more heavy duty vehicles as the cost of batteries cost and therefore weight related weight reductions in battery cost. Given the price of electrical cars I think we are starting with buses. Buses are urban buses or the prime target because like I said in terms of what you're going to save in emissions it's not like in the US where actually emissions of gasoline are much bigger than diesel. It's not like this in Brazil in part because we already have the ethanol but the bonus of the pollution is a major factor. So right now the focus is really in buses and I think we are going to in a way to serve a little bit on the technical advances in other countries before investing a lot of money into this. By the way I think on the differences you drew out between the US and Brazil in terms of resource-based regulations and so on we're quite eliminating at least I found them. So several people were intrigued by this gas to wire option you laid out and so one one one viewer wondered probably an investor or entrepreneur wondered what you can say about the costs now and in the future either per kilowatt hour or ton of CO2 avoided. What how far are they from being competitive already and is that gap likely to decrease in the near future? Well there have been a number of studies I can send you some to you and then distribute. They usually right now they're mostly simulation very technical with the standard say programs for that. You get energy I would say at 50% or 70% more than the the the energy of save of solar but if you compare the cost with a thermal that you have to send the gas to a pipeline then it's competitive and you have to think how you compute the carbon credit. Of course if you do have a huge carbon credit in Brazil they'll be very competitive except that they actually don't compete with other fossil fuels they compete with renewable so the exact benefit of a carbon tax or whatever in this case for the pricing in Brazil is not so evident but I think some of the studies show that we it's not something say three times the cost and as we refine some of the models for instance the cost of the platform the space that you use and also how you can one thing that I mentioned very very briefly that's particular to Brazil is that a lot of these fields they have a lot of associated CO2 with the gas which actually happens most of the turbines those who follow this know the turbine run with excess air so it means that you don't have to put pure methane to have a good combustion actually if you put more CO2 you get a better combustion than there because CO2 is inert so actually it works very well so if you if you use the CO2 to reject you actually increase the production of the fields so there you have an additional in this slide one typical example for a 500 megawatt turbine you could in some of the fields get six million barrels a year of additional production just by by doing this cycle. Great one last big question this maybe you could use your final slide to start on I apologize for being so big but one listener asked if you had a trillion dollars this is probably taking advantage of your money finance background if you personally had a trillion dollars to invest in building things to to accelerate the movement towards zero carbon and sustainability more generally how would you spend it? Okay it's a trillion dollar and especially the trillion probably a little bit fiscal I think that hydrogen can be a great bet especially if you link that not to internal combustion but with cell full cells I think it's great in addition because hydrogen can be also become a source of revenues for poor countries if you put the the production of green energy solar energy and you think all the tropical not necessarily Brazil but the Africa other places and you put the production of the electricity and then the transformation in hydrogen and you bring this hydrogen which is not too complicated or ammonia whatever the form to consumer areas you could get a very interesting trade system that would mean a lot of energy security because you could have many different suppliers in different places you'd be something that you would integrate a number of different countries of different levels of 40 us does need to import hydrogen but Europe would import hydrogen okay China can see half and half okay so this will be something that you bring people together it's great for global trade bring people together and the other thing is that hydrogen will help not only with energy but like I said with some other processes like it's still even cement so you get a double bonus in terms of what say the the the reduction in in emissions and I think the technology in terms of producing green hydrogen electrolyzers etc has moved so fast that you could be very quickly after you put the first say quantity of money you get scale and then you really get something that you give a big boost in thermal productivity let not forget just final thought oil is great but consumes a lot of capital and has a lot of risk some of these other things actually in terms of finance are not bad because a solar panel there's no risk in a solar panel in a in a distant area you can actually borrow money does have to put that much equity because low risk and ultimately a dollar per dollar especially after you scale up you may need less dollars for unit of energy especially when you integrate the whole system with the fuel cells etc thanks for that very big forward-looking idea that actually scooped up a lot of remaining questions I would want to add one more thing a corollary question you seem pretty optimistic or maybe a silver lining type thing with COVID helping with the transition in Brazil and elsewhere would you care to expand upon that a little bit just to leave us in these days of trials and tribulation with a more of a happy silver lining perspective on what we're going through look I think that COVID I showed how many different technologies you had so the fact that you're talking now here is a huge leap in terms of productivity and these productivity and you do have an effect many many industries some things are obvious some things you mean in the short run on employment perhaps but a lot of these things you mean more productivity and this is what makes the the the world richer you may have to use some policies to share this productivity you may want to use some policies to foster things that you also help to leverage this productivity so there is a challenge in terms of a policy coordination good ideas and so on but I think that you will help and I think even the price of oil showed how the world could be different and in terms for investors I think they're learning very quickly what was the prospect for for an oil price in 20 years they're seeing now and that changed mine with that Joaquin thank you very much we're counting on you to mow the ball forward now that you've got your trillion dollars and we hope to be able to see you again in person real soon thanks one last time thank you very kind great pleasure thank you


First video in the new house if this is your first time watching one of my videos that might mean nothing to you I think it looks pretty good I kind of just slap stuff up to have stuff there so I could start making YouTube videos again since I have a Mortgage to pay now and I couldn't wait any longer and oh my god So I wondered what should be the first video I officially make in the new house the answer was very obvious Of course a video about the switch, but not only the switch It's a video that a lot of people have been asking me to do recently another episode in my e-shop videos Meaning I had to go and buy and play another ten e-shop out more than that because a lot of duds Don't make it through I had to sift through the crap on the e-shop that none of you want to do none of you want this Responsibility that's why you're begging me to do it. You don't want to go and buy so needless to say all ten of These are absolute bangers. It's a very nice mix of games, too I feel very confident that no matter whatever video game a weirdo freak you might be there will be something on this list for you To enjoy and if there's not you're just being picky You probably only play like Call of Duty and Madden's and if that's the case Hey, I appreciate you watching me, but why are you here with all that said subscribe before you leave now that I upset You and like the video and we'll get started. I'm very excited to do this in the new house. Thanks for watching Let's go. Okay, but first, you know how me buying all of these games to review is pretty expensive. Yes No, no, not you of course, you know.  Yes Sorry go on go on Today's video is sponsored by Skillshare Skillshare is an online learning community where millions come together to take the next step in their creative journey with Thousands of inspiring classes on topics including but in no way limited to illustration design Photography video editing and much more whether you want to learn how to become a youtuber or just do some fun Art as a hobby Everything on Skillshare, you know, we ain't wrong in the past I've taken Japanese guitar lessons even Adobe After Effects courses But whether you're looking to get better at cooking at home, which is a good idea right now or learning how to sketch ink and color There's literally a course for everything. Maybe not literally everything. I'm sure if you look for something weird It might not be there, but you know what Skillshare is Literally super affordable with an annual subscription costing less than ten dollars a month and for a very limited time Skillshare is offering our Viewers, I guess a free trial of Skillshare premium membership just by clicking the link in my Description yeah, so how about you get off your butt and learn something already or better yet stay sitting? I mean, it's all online anyway. All right on with your video.  Okay. I'm basic, but I'm not 32 ounce basic That's a lot of coffee. I should have got it. I've had too many of those this game Soothed my soul from the visuals that initially had a 3ds reminiscent look But grow on me quite quickly to the lush original soundtrack that progresses Dynamically as you explore the mountain, but also the gameplay you can explore the island Anyway, you like choosing your own path as you go You'll meet other hikers each with their own stories and great dialogue fun hidden treasures like feather upgrades allowing you to fly or climb Higher than before and don't expect any heart racing blood pumping action-packed gameplay here either This is a game that promises a moment of peace in a world drenched with chaos It's simply a short story about a bird's hike up a trail that has no cell phone reception So for only six dollars and ninety-nine cents put away your own damn cell phone for a couple of hours and just enjoy the Tranquility that is a short hike Wait, did I say tranquility? Yeah, never mind screw that throw it out the window. It's time to get loud double-kick heroes is a loud unapologetically obnoxious All right, turn it down. I can't keep yelling rhythmic shoot em up where you must survive the Mad Max style highway to hell full of Zombies battle tanks and giant undead chickens or whatever else the game decides to throw at you and this game Deserves a lot more love for the soundtrack alone I mean this game gave me Tony Hawk 2 vibes of 10 year old me having something musically awakened inside as I discovered New artists and awesome tracks just by playing a really fun game each level of the game is set to one of 30 new Tremendously awesome metal songs as you smash buttons on your controller in time with the face melting tracks to slay the undead Creatures sprinting after you the game begins easy enough as I played with one line of beat You'll probably still see me in the top 10 worldwide scoreboard for most of the easy difficulty I should as I stepped it up to having two lines of tracks a sniping button using the trigger and Another button for throwing grenades That was when practice made perfect and I found myself buried in waves of rotting flesh So if you're looking to just rock out to some tracks You can always just play casually But I love how many difficulty options there are and speaking of options You have a bunch of different modes like arcade story and even daily challenges and if you've completely lost your marbles You can try using the joy con motion controls. I gotta imagine that's impossible Sadly, it wouldn't let me use my drum though. It wouldn't recognize Well spirit Faro is a cozy wonderful little game that deals with death But you know like in a fun way you play as stealth which Coincidentally is also the name of a delicious Belgian beer, but that's off subject I don't drink but it's delicious Stella is a fairy master to the deceased who with your aid Befriends and cares for spirits before releasing them into the afterlife You do this by helping the spirits with whatever they need to accept their fate and just move on already There are many different requests given from these spirits that will have you farm and mine fish Harvest cook and even craft your way across the mythical seas featuring good Orgishly hand drawn and animated characters spirit Faro is a management sim that as you play will have you building things like Kitchens to cook your food farms and even little guest homes for the spirits to Temporarily live in there is plenty more you will create upon your ship and even more you can find and discover by sailing to other Islands and exploring the world around you But what this game does best is deal with its underlying themes of death and acceptance in a way Unlike any other game has even attempted to before the story and dialogue is brilliantly written with Believable characters and moments that will have you questioning your own real-life purpose on this planet I grew attached to so many of my spirit guests and new friends and then right as I felt like I had finally gotten to know Them it was time for me to help them move on and they were gone in a beautiful way by helping these spirits accept Their own mortality the game in turn teaches you the acceptance of death itself get chills I got chills when I wrote that and I got chills when I said that and if you weren't sold on the game already You can play call-up with a buddy and your buddy gets to play as the cat. So yeah, buy it Where you from mate? I'm from down under. Oh, really? I'm going down under sometimes I just get bored, you know on the next game whatever going under is full of vibrant color and Energetic action having you play as an unpaid intern at a startup company now on a normal day That sounds pretty boring who wants to play that game, right? Until you find out that your job is going into the dungeons underneath the building which are filled with other Failed startups from previous years and all the employees were left down there to collectively lose their minds And go barbaric like that breaks some HR rules But who am I to judge they made a fun game out of it as you progress through the defunct businesses You'll find failed dating sites gig workers or cryptocurrencies and of course horrible bosses literally at the end of each world You find a horrible boss and you know, it's a workplace game So bosses and bosses never mind you slide down into the bottom floor and find an office themed dungeon waiting for you Which to me working in a cubicle always felt like a dungeon sentence So not too far from the truth here You know until the previous workers try to cave your head in with office supplies I mean, that's a little different to my experience working in odd dis mobile This is where your roguelite adventure begins and the best part is almost Everything you find in these rooms can be used as a weapon from laptops to brooms and even body pillows You can't find actual weapons too, but I'd rather smack someone over their head with a keyboard I wanted style. Yeah, it was great, bro. Who's the man? That was Chris Pratt. I didn't realize till I looked it up for this video Not only the better you will get at learning enemy attack patterns But the more permanent upgrades and skills you can unlock to make the next go around more likely to be the one You don't die on my first experience with a long dark was earlier this year on Xbox game pass It's a clever exploration survival game that managed to wedge its intro song so far into my brain that now months later I still find myself humming it to this day. It's a very catchy song many survival games I've played in the past kind of just take you and dunk you in the middle of nowhere and then go yep That's it. Try not to die. Good luck with little to no story going along with it But the long dark features a full episodic tale and frickin weirdo characters for you to meet You agree to fly someone somewhere.  Sorry when I was writing this script. It was almost 7 p.m. And I was really hungry I don't know why I wrote all that into the script. All right when it comes to surviving There is literally no tutorial so you'll find yourself dying often early on as you try to figure it out And while that might be a little frustrating video game wise in reality that would be life Which is the effect the game developers were going for you begin to learn how to build fires Collect and clean water hunt and cook meat and more you need to keep an eye on your thirst hunger and body temperature I'm thinking about it. I'm getting thirsty There are many survival mechanics to discover and even more you might miss if you don't think about trying them out in your playthrough The long dark is brutal unforgiving Challenging and not for the faint of heart. This is a fully fleshed out survival game It's fair and it's mechanics, but if you don't learn a survive, yeah, won't also side note I recommend playing this on Xbox game pass because it's free and it looks gorgeous Kind of got squished down to the switch version and doesn't look as good moving on Well speaking of survival games, let's take a look at another windbound This one is a little a little a lot easier to not die in than the last one. That said I still died No live in front of everyone on twitch by the way, if you don't know that I stream on twitch I do three times a week. We're having a blast over there. Please go follow me. I'd really appreciate it And if you're thinking I didn't know you streamed on twitch, that's great I'll go follow you would it's just a shame that I missed that windbound stream. I feel you That's why I also uploaded it on my gameplay channel. I hacked it up and I made an edited video out of it You'll watch it right now links below go subscribe to that channel, too Yeah, all right, let me get back to the game and stop shouting myself out everywhere Follow me on Twitter by the way. I'm so close to a hundred thousand followers and I want that check mark Okay, I'm not gonna mention my second channel would walk it where I make full videos about my life Why would I mention that I was initially drawn to windbound as the sailing visuals and the name gave me Wind Waker vibes, but in practice there was nothing like my beloved Zelda title and that's okay in windbound You find yourself washed up on an uncharted island shore as you gather some supplies from the surrounding islands You fashion yourself a small boat and begin to adapt explore and navigate the perilous seas to stay alive This is a crafting hunting survival adventure.  I can't recommend it enough How does it make sense to craft a small boat out of dead leaves and twigs and then you know set a fire on it? I don't know but do it in most is a dark tale told from the viewpoint of three playable main characters each with their own unique gameplay styles and stories that intertwine throughout this hauntingly beautiful pixel art world for me what I Immediately appreciated was the audio design. It's incredible For example in the very first area when you open this great to sneak through and it falls from the wall It's sudden heavy and weighted added with that quick flash of light and the shadows of a husband and wife Reaching out to you as if begging you not to leave needless to say the tone for the game was set right here And I was invested while playing as the night you can attack and grapple the little girl can move objects around to help her Platform and the man is all about puzzle platforming and it's with him that you'll spend most of the game I really enjoyed the puzzle mechanics and impressive storytelling through its striking visuals and audio design I don't have much else to say if you like what you see here. Go get it. Oh, hello games Good to see you Sorry, that was a terrible joke. Oh, let me tell you a short story about a little game developer who I feel very sorry for On a daily basis. Hello games founded in 2008 made a cutesy little biking game that did pretty well Considering so for their next game this four-person team decided to take a stab at creating a game set in a procedurally Generated universe the idea was that it would have over 18 Quintillion planets being generated for the player this game was going to be called no man sky and once the media heard about the concept They blow it out of proportion as the media tends to do with most things and set Expectations way too high for the very small indie developer Then after hello games went through a flood in their office and having to recover most of the projects code PlayStation went and obtained the rights to the game putting even more pressure on the four people making it needless to say You know the story from there and even though hello games did a fantastic job post-release at delivering What was originally promised no man sky was still a herculean task for them to complete Thankfully after all that mess hello games went to work creating an adorably charming realistic for three people Wonderful game known as the last campfire I told you that story before I showed you the game because I believe hello games deserves a level of appreciation They aren't often shown and just maybe now you'll consider giving the last campfire a chance now that you know its story The last campfire is a puzzle adventure game where you take control of a lost soul named ember It's your task to help fellow for lawn souls who have lost hope to find their own purpose Each lost soul will share its memory with you creating a puzzle for you to solve I found these puzzles really fun and the mechanics shift between each one So they all felt unique the world itself has a fair share of puzzles for you to solve as you progress meeting Interesting and sometimes adorable new characters and other times not as adorable But something that is consistent is the outstanding soundtrack Marvelous lighting and the solid 60 FPS It's a very charming game, and I really recommend you check it out next game's pretty normal nothing really out of the ordinary It's just a little thing called fight crab. Well, you fight as crabs.  Look, it's not good But that's kind of the point you can be a lobster wielding whatever Weapons you want fighting and trying to flip over the other sea creatures for a three-peak count you're out Okay, yeah, it's honestly so stupid, but I mean it's pretty fleshed out It has a campaign mode with 34 different stages 23 types of playable crabs 48 different weapons 1v1 2 vs 2 offline and online modes Look if you ever wanted your red lobster with a cider Cheddar Bay biscuits to go to war.  I Don't really even know what needs to be said about both Ori and the blind forest and Ori and the will of wisps These games were created by the indie team moon studios and somehow ended up being two of the best games The Xbox had to offer and that's in no way a slight to the Xbox and its lack of Exclusives no it's just truly a testament to how good both of these games are with my honest opinion being that these are the best Metroidvania games ever created and now you can both play and cry Along with these games on your Nintendo switch that story in Blind Forest still gets me every time right at the start and right at the end Can't help it big man baby Ori and the will of the wisps is every bit as good as the first now You know what screw that it's better than it's every bit better than the first with the developers completely Outdoing themselves with all new mechanics and abilities even going as far as to somehow improve that visuals the lighting story Gameplay and so much more that made the first game so wonderful this time around You have no spoilers Please an adorable little owl friend who you lose immediately at the start of the game and you have to go find him as you Start the game you quickly notice you can now physically attack using weapons Whereas before you would have to rely solely on the environment and fancy footwork now You can smash crash and shoot your way through the enemies I wasn't sure how I felt about that at first But the more I dived into the combat the more it grew on me and I ended up falling in love with it There's so many skills and abilities you can find and unlock and it's up to you to find the right balance for your Playstyle as some have both positive and negative effects It has to be true that the developers took note of how players Interacted with their original game and listened to any and all of the feedback that might help them improve upon what they created And they tweaked it and they made something that's just Perfect it's completely awe-inspiring and the more I explore and progress to the tunnels underwater depths and open areas The more I can't wait to discover what truly terrifying battle comes next. Is there anything this game can do wrong? Apparently not. Oh boy. We did it Not only another 10 eShop games knocked out of the park all of which fantastic debatable on fight crab I'll admit maybe nine fantastic ones and then one for fun But another 10 knocked out the park and the first video in the new house things are happening around here I tell you some cool stuff. All right. I love you guys Thank you so much for watching my videos remember to like the video if you liked it and leave down below What eShop game I need to talk about still but remember there's like 25 of these videos So do me a favor and watch all 25 and take note before you go down there and tell me I missed Hollow Knight Don't miss it. Oh, you know what? I haven't done in forever. Bring up that little sub button man I haven't done this.


Good afternoon. Welcome to CMC markets on Friday, the 7th of May and today's non-farm payrolls webinar for the month of April. My name is Michael Houston to those of you who don't know me and are only tuning in for the very first time before I get started. I think it's important that everyone understands that anything that I say on here should not be construed as a direct invitation to buy or sell a particular asset, currency, pair, index, commodity or what have you, but what I will be talking about today is certainly in terms of what we can expect for the numbers, whether or not they're going to have a significant effect in the overall direction of the markets. I don't think they'll have a significant direction because I think at the moment where you remain very much in a buy the dip type mentality as far as equity markets are concerned, but also what it means for the direction of central bank policy going forward, particularly US central bank policy. And we've certainly heard an awful lot about that over the course of the past couple of weeks in the wake of the last Fed meeting, but also I think more importantly in the context of central bank policy elsewhere. Since we last spoke, which was Payroll's report a month ago, we've seen a European Central Bank rate meeting, we've seen Bank of England as recently as yesterday, and we've obviously heard from the Federal Reserve as well. And I think one of the notable things that I took away from when I last spoke to you was the fact that US 10 year Treasury yields are now lower now than they were a month ago, despite the fact that the economic data that we've seen out of the US has been by and large uniformly positive. And that for me suggests that policymakers are doing a very, very good job in terms of driving down expectations about the direction of monetary policy. Now of course, whether or not they are correct in thinking that inflationary pressures are going to be, pressures are going to be transitory. I think today's Payroll's numbers aren't going to, and I say aren't going to, add an awful lot of impetus to the overall debate about where markets are going. That's simply on the basis of the fact when we finish the end of last week, company earnings by and large have been better than expected. Confidence in the global recovery still remains fairly decent. It remains fairly high, notwithstanding what's going on in India. Now I think there is certainly an awful lot of over optimism with respect to the pace of the global recovery. I think it's going to be patchy. I think some areas are going to do much better than others. I think the US and the UK are likely to outperform simply because they are ahead of the game when it comes to the vaccine rollout strategy, which means that any second waves or third or fourth waves or whatever you want to call them or new variants are likely to limit any new lockdowns as we head into the end of this year. I think that's important. I think it's important in the context of expectations around inflation, which are probably people are taking a little bit, being a little bit complacent about. If you look at commodity prices and what copper prices have done this week, central banks won't be raising rates any time soon. Let's put that to bed right now. I think it's unlikely that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates much before 2024-2025, same with the Bank of England, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they won't modify monetary policy because there are more ways to signal a reining back of monetary stimulus than raising interest rates. You can taper the amount of asset purchases that you're doing on a month-to-month basis. The Bank of England have already indicated that they will be starting to do that in the not too distant future. The Bank of England have been basically buying assets to the tune of £4.4 billion a week. They're cutting that back by £3.4 billion a week. Now, they're saying that that is not a taper, but to my mind, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a duck. They are tapering monetary policy or their asset purchase program. Now, that may be more out of a sense of making sure that they've got enough bonds to be able to buy as they head towards the end of the year than anything else because they're running out of assets to buy. But I think we can certainly assume that if the data continues the way that it has been, expectations about a reining back or a retreating back of central banks will start to become much more front of mind. At the moment, it's not. It's very much back of mind. And I think that's why we've seen US Treasury yields slip back lower. If we look at the US 10-year right here, we can see that quite clearly that just over a month ago, around about the 5th of April, which was around about Good Friday, or around about that time, this is where US 10-year yields were. They were up here. Now they are down here. So they are trending lower. The big support level on the 10-year is around about 1.5%. Now, I don't expect to see that to fall below 1.5%. We are still a little bit softer, and that speaks to a federal reserve that's assuaged market concerns that they are going to be tightening monetary policy anytime soon. Certainly, if you look at where the 10-year was at the beginning of this year, there's still an awful lot of potential tightening priced into the market already. So that's been rained back a little bit. And that's important. I think this current direction of travel here was unsustainable. And as long as we stay below 1.8%, I think we're pretty much in a range between 1.5 and 1.8%. Now, is the headline number important? We are expecting 1 million jobs to be added this month, or last month, April, as it is. So let's look at the market calendar, and that can be found right here. And let's have a quick look at what is being expected. Now, the consensus estimates for this month range from anywhere between 700,000 and 1.5 million. So Reuters have stuck their estimates, slap bang, well, not quite, towards the lower end of that. And I think the reason they've come in slightly lower was because ADP earlier this week also came in a little bit lower. So there is a risk, perhaps, that the markets are underpricing the prospect that we actually might not come in above 1 million. We might come in below 1 million. But to my mind, that really doesn't make much of a difference. What's significant is the direction of travel. And while Jay Powell indicated that one jobs report does not a trend make, I think there will be disappointment if the numbers aren't anywhere north of 800,000 or 900,000. They should be well above that. Given what we're seeing, the anecdotal reports from businesses that they're struggling to fill positions, that jobs are coming back online in April, also, we saw the theme parks in the U.S., Reopen, Disneyland, Reopened, or the Disneyland theme parks. So there should be an ad back in on the jobs report there. And a whole host of outdoor leisure reopened in April as well. So you should see a very significant rebound on the back of the payroll's numbers. So let me just quickly open this alert here. And we've also got the Canadian jobs report. It's important to keep an eye on that. And that seems pretty pessimistic. They're looking for a minus 175,000 number there, which to my mind seems a bit odd, given the fact that we've seen such big gains going forward. And that potentially introduces an element of downside risk, I think, in terms of, or upside risk rather in case of the Canada jobs number, because I think there's a distinct possibility that maybe expectations are a little bit pessimistic when it comes to that. But we want to talk about the dollar. So at the moment, the dollar is at the bottom end of its recent range. So whatever the payroll's report is today, the downside to the dollar seems fairly limited if we look at it through the prism of this chart here. Decent support in and around 943. Now this is the CMC dollar index. It's not the same as the dollar index, because it has a much greater weighting of the Chinese renminbi in it, and a much lower weighting on the Euro dollar. But nonetheless, what this is telling me is that the dollar is range trading. So the downside in it, irrespective of the numbers, is likely to be fairly limited. One of the reasons we've seen the dollar weaken over the course of the past few days, in fact, past month or so, is because of higher expectations about Euro area reopening. And that's given the Euro a little bit of a bid. There's also been talk that the ECB might be looking to taper when it comes to its June meeting. Now I think that's highly unlikely. But the fact of the matter is whenever you hear policymakers talk of tapering bomb purchases and what have you, the markets tend to front run anything like that, and they tend to adjust their positions accordingly. So while the Euro is stronger, it doesn't necessarily speak to a much more optimistic economic outlook, because European economies are looking to reopen, but they remain very much behind the curve when it comes to vaccinating their populations, and their infection rates are higher. So there's a much higher degree of risk in terms of their reopening. Then there is, say, for example, the UK, the US, where the percentage of the population having first doses is much higher. So that sort of helps explain why the Euro has recovered against the dollar, and also why the pound is looking an awful lot stronger. And I think also the fact that the pound, while it's lost ground against the Euro, by and large, I still expect the pound to rise against the Euro. So in terms of the overall dollar picture, I'm sort of the opinion that we're in a bit of a range, and the downside should remain limited. I'll only revise that opinion if we drop significantly below the lows that we've seen over the course of the past few months. So moving on quickly to gold, because we need to do that, gold prices. Now we've seen a significant move higher in gold, and a large part of that has been because of the softening in US yields. If I cast your mind back to that yield chart, that US 10-year yield chart, US 10-year yields were at the top end of their recent range a month ago, when gold was on its lows. There is an inverse correlation between the two. Weakier yields, higher gold, stronger yields, weaker gold. So at the moment, gold is at towards the top end of its recent range, and could well find it a little bit difficult to get through this area of resistance through here, because that roughly equates to around about 1.5% on the US 10-year. So if you get a sell-off in bond markets, US yields will go higher, and as a result, gold should find a little bit of a lid. At the moment, gold is looking a little bit overbought, but that's not to say that we can't come back all the way to 1835-1836. But I would suggest that these sorts of levels, gold is looking a little bit toppy. Brent Crude. Similar sort of story here. It's starting to roll over a little bit. It's important to remember, and those of you who've been regular listeners to my webinars will know that there's a big, big top at $72.50 on Brent. And that's where we ran out of steam in March two months ago, coincides with the peaks that we saw in 2020. There's a huge level at these sorts of levels, and OPEC Plus will be reluctant for prices to go much above where they are now. Now, next week, we've got a CPI number out of the US, and all this talk about inflation obviously is raising concerns that we're in a little bit, we're underestimating the effect that higher prices could have on central bank's reaction function when it comes to higher prices. We're certainly seeing higher prices in terms of prices paid data, producer prices. We're seeing some pass-through effects in terms of companies passing through these higher costs in the form of higher prices. And it's the ability of the consumer to absorb these higher prices that will be key. At the moment, there's no evidence of wage inflation. So, while there's no evidence of wage inflation, I don't think central bankers will be too concerned about that. And if there isn't wage inflation, then OPEC Plus will be reluctant to allow oil prices to rip much higher, because if prices go much higher, that will mean less disposable income, and then you will get demand destruction. OPEC Plus have relaxed their production caps. They will be releasing more oil into the market as US driving season gets underway over the course of May and June, and that should keep a lid on prices. But we are still very much in a range trade. We've broken above these peaks here, but it is important to understand that we haven't taken out these highs here, and we are starting to drift off a little bit. And also, you've got to take into account base effects when you look at inflation numbers right now. A year ago, crude oil prices bottomed out at around about $15 a barrel for Brent. Now, they're around about $65. So, that is going to be reflected in the higher CPI rates that we're going to get over the course of the next two months. You've got to look back at where oil prices were a year ago and where they are now. We call that base effects. They crashed off, became much lower. So, there was a deflationary bias a year ago. There's an inflationary bias this year ago, this time now. We need that to wash out, and that's what they mean when they say these effects are transitory, because a year ago prices were through the floor. Now, they're quite high. That's base effects. We need that to wash out if the inflation is still high three or four months from now, central banks will start to become more worried about higher levels of inflationary pressure. So, in the short term, while CPI next week could well come in at 3.6 or 3.8 percent, whereas it was at 1.4 percent at the beginning of the year, the expectation is that that number will come back down again as those base effects wash out. So, when economists talk about base effects, that's what they mean. They talk about where it was a year ago when the pandemic and the lockdowns first hit and where it is now. So, we need that to sort of average out a little bit to get an idea of where we are going forward. So, anyway, one million jobs is what we're expecting. We're expecting the unemployment rate to fall back to 5.8 percent, but more importantly, and those of you who read my morning notes, I'll be paying close attention to the participation rate because the participation rate will tell you how many people are actually in the workforce looking for work. A year ago, 63.4 percent of the US population was looking for work. Now, it's 61.5 percent. So, 2 percent of that workforce a year ago are no longer looking for work. We want that to change. The Fed wants that to change. They want that number to start moving back up to the levels it was a year ago before they'll even consider raising rates or cutting back on monetary policy stimulus. So, if we just look at the reaction function here, get rid of these lines. This should give us an indication, knee-jerk reaction of where we go to here, but I don't expect Euro dollar, whatever the numbers are, to drop much below the lows that we've seen over here. So, to recap, not expecting this number to really drive the move higher or lower, I think equity markets will continue to move higher. The S&P, the NASDAQ, and what have you, will still continue to trend higher. It's very much a buy-dips market, but a disappointment in the number could actually see a weaker dollar in the short term. If we meet expectations, we'll just basically trade in the range that we're currently in. Anyway, what I'm going to do now is be quiet for a minute and allow myself time to absorb the numbers. So, that was the kind of numbers you just saw there. Goodness gracious me. That is not a good number. That is a horrendous number. 266. So, that's obviously dollar negative, and that's why Euro dollars shot up. I mean, that's a huge miss. And the revision lower as well. I mean, that is incredible. 266. Okay, let me just absorb that. So, obviously, that's a dollar weaker number. That's a huge miss. And certainly the revision lower is also disappointing, exceedingly disappointing. Let's look at the participation rate. I'm actually really shocked at that number. So, let's have a look at what the overall participation rate is for the US. That's actually gone up. So, the participation rate's gone up to 61.7. The headline number is 266. I've really got to double check that again. And the unemployment rate has gone up to 6.1. Well, you know, I'm amazed. I'm utterly amazed by that. The big question is whether or not that is sustainable. So, we're probably going to get Euro dollar back towards 121.5 year. That's a big, big level there. And looking at that number there, looking at yields, that's going to see yields tank and probably gold prices move higher. Let's just look at this here. And yep, sure enough, that's exactly what it's done. And that basically is a classic example of the market becoming complacent about the specific payrolls number. We've seen weekly jobless claims decline week on week, which again has raised expectations of a positive payrolls number. The fact of the matter is while this is surprisingly disappointing, what it doesn't do is change the overall narrative of an improving US labor market. Yes, it's disappointing and we're going to see a weaker dollar as a result of it, but I don't think it's going to change the longer term outlook vis-a-vis the US economy. So, certainly in terms of what we're going to see now, we're going to see a weaker dollar. We're going to see gold move higher. We're going to see Euro dollar move back towards 1.21.5, potentially even 1.22. But what it won't do is change the overall narrative of a strengthening US economy. It just slows it down. So it seems to me that the markets have got slightly ahead of their skis in terms of their expectations for the labor market. And as a result, we're going to see a little bit of weakness in equity markets overall. We're certainly seeing that in terms of the FTSE 100, but it doesn't change the overall narrative in terms of the direction of travel for stock markets. So we're looking at gold. So as I say, it's likely with the likes to find a little bit of selling pressure as we approach the 200 day moving average, probably see selling pressure in Euro around about the previous peaks over at 1.21.5. And in terms of the S&P 500, we're actually still looking to retest the record highs that we saw over the course at the end of April. So it's barely registered on the S&P. The FTSE 100 is giving up some of its gains that we've seen largely on the back of probably a stronger pound than the weaker dollar, which is hurting it nonetheless. But even if we fall back to this sort of level here, if we look at the 70-40 level on the UK FTSE 100, I'm still very much a bar on the dips on that now that we've broken above 70-40. And we can see why 70-40 is such an important level. If we go back all the way back to 2019, we can see that on the basis of support and resistance, it's a very, very key level. So I haven't changed my mind in the same way that a bumper jobs report in March is not going to change the narrative. Neither is a poor jobs report in April. But what it does do is it makes us think twice about the direction of travel when it comes to the health of the labour market. Because what we've seen from this jobs report is probably going to make me have to think an awful lot longer and harder about how quickly these jobs start to get replaced from what we saw a year ago. So we're getting a little bit of a pullback in the FTSE 100. I'm not overly concerned by that. I'd use that as a dip buying opportunity. If we look at the NASDAQ 100, that's probably likely to take a move higher on the back of that because Big Tech has been acting with a significant safe haven bias over the course of the past few days. But also 50-day moving average is looking to be a fairly decent support level if we look at this market here. So we broke below earlier this week, a little bit of stop loss selling, found support with the 50-day moving average. And now the likelihood is we are going to push higher. So a poor jobs report certainly is not the negative for equity markets as people would have you think. It's not by any stretch of the imagination. Similar sort of thing with it when it comes to the DAX, look to buy dips on any equity market here. We can see this break of support here, short lived, the dip buyers are coming back. And as a result, as a result, we're seeing another pullback and a potential for a retest of the record highs that we saw back in April. NASDAQ exploding, as you would expect it to do so. We may see a little bit of a pullback. Be very careful about getting too carried away about running positions into the weekend. Always have to warn people about getting overexuberant in terms of the numbers when it comes to heading into a weekend. You don't really want to be running a position into the weekend simply because of what might happen with respect to politicians saying stupid stuff. I think there's always a risk that you can end up wearing a position over a weekend. It may be the right position, but what you don't want to do is be gapped out or stopped out on any overall positions. I've become, as I've got older, a lot more risk averse when it comes to running positions over the weekend. The risk reward just isn't there. There's too much headline risk involved in running over the weekend positions, but everyone has a different risk tolerance. If you're happy doing that, then it's quite happy to do it. But overall, while those numbers are disappointing, they don't change the overall narrative when it comes to the direction of travel and the US recovery. Okay, so Bitcoin. Well, at the moment with Bitcoin, I mean, this is a chart and a half, isn't it? I mean, it's very difficult with Bitcoin to try and do any meaningful technical analysis on it. But I'm going to try. So what we've got here is, apart from a brief dip below $50,000, it does appear to be fairly well supported there. And now we've got a gap here, which the market has filled, but it struggled to get above. And that for me is significant. Gaps generally tend to get filled. And if we look at this level here, there is certainly decent area of resistance through $59,406. Well, let's call it $59,500 if I can get my words out. So basically, if I run my cursor over this level here, there is a big gap between $60,000 and $59,500. And that's not really surprising when you consider that the spread on Bitcoin, as you can see, there is 80 pips. Now, it's quite wide. So unless you've got deep pockets for Bitcoin at the moment, if we're to see a test of new highs, we need to clear this gap resistance because gaps can act as a bit of a selling window. And until such times as we get back above, or move back above that gap resistance, then the upside of Bitcoin is likely to be a little bit limited. What we have seen is Ethereum post new record highs. And that isn't showing any signs of running out of steam. If we look at Ethereum here, we've got a gap higher. So we could conceivably get a little bit of gap support on any pullbacks on Ether. And if we put the gap there, it's between $2,800 and $2,900. So there should be gaps for an Ether on any pullback on that crypto. So at the moment, Ether is looking fairly solid in terms of buying interest, whereas Bitcoin is looking a little bit toppy.  Now, another way of gaining exposure to crypto, if you don't want to put all your eggs in one crypto basket, is maybe to try and put your money in a crypto basket. We've got three crypto indexes. We've got a major crypto index, which basically is Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are the major components. And to a lesser extent, some of the smaller coins, or you've got emerging crypto, or you've got all crypto. But there are a whole host of different crypto currencies that you can keep an eye on. And it's notable here that the biggest gains that we're seeing thus far today are in some of the smaller coins like Litecoin, or Monero, or Neo, or Stellalumans, which are giving much bigger percentage gains. But of course, that comes with a little bit of a caveat in that sometimes the spreads can be a little bit wider. Nonetheless, you've got Stellalumans, which is at record highs. So again, there's likely to be a little bit of selling interest around there. When I'm looking at a particular market, I'm very interested in the highs and the lows and what they're doing. And generally, previous highs are previous lows, tend to act as resistance and support. And when they break, they then reverse their roles. So it's very important in the overall scheme of things is to look at the relationship between highs and lows when you're making trading decisions. So in terms of the FTSE 100, very much a case of buy the dips when it comes to looking at that particular index. And certainly that 70-40-50 level is likely to be a decent area of support if we dip back towards it. The Dow is looking a little bit soft at the moment. It's coming back off its all-time highs. But nonetheless, that has been outperforming in recent days, unlike the S&P in the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000, which has been underperforming. But again, look at this index here, very much in an uptrend. And first rule of technical analysis is the trend is your friend. And at the moment, we can see that there's still fairly decent demand. Looking at this candle here, that long tail suggests to me that there's no appetite to really push the Dow much below this series of lows through here. You've got one, two, three, four, five, six lows all the way through this particular index here. So that's important. It reinforces where the areas of support are for the Dow. If we look at the small cap, which is more representative of probably the US economy, that was pretty much traded sideways over the course of the past three months. It hasn't gone above its previous record highs, but nonetheless, the dips are getting shallower. So the direction of travel is still positive. It's just an awful lot choppier. Unfortunately, this is what makes these markets so much more difficult to trade, but also using very good consistent rules when it comes to technical analysis, you can at least take some of the chance out of the way these markets move. So once again, the NASDAQ seems on course to retest these peaks above 14,000 that we saw earlier in April. Okay, so quick question. Ibex 35, I'm being asked. Why are small caps underperforming lately? I mean, I think that's the big unknown at the moment. I think the reason they're underperforming is simply because investors prefer big cap stocks. It's safety in blue chips, no more, no less. And I think that's why smaller caps are underperforming. But Alan, the FTSE 250 is outperforming the FTSE 100. So it's not necessarily true. If you look at the FTSE 250, it has significantly outperformed the FTSE 100. The FTSE 250 is near record highs. The reason the FTSE 100 is underperformed is largely because of the fact that it has a whole host of retail and travel stocks in it. And that is causing it to underperform relative to the bigger caps. You look at the companies that reported this morning, British Airways, IAG, you've got IHG, Intercontinental Hotels Group, which own Holiday Inn. I mean, the travel and leisure sector has underperformed significantly and is underperformed in terms of the bounce back because restrictions for international travel are likely to be the last, that are least. They're going to be the last to bounce back. Hotels are doing slightly better on a localized basis. If you look at IHG, China region has bounced back. It's 37% below 2019 levels in terms of revenue per room. IAG, domestic travel, is not a particularly big component of IAG's revenue base. We're in the same way that it is for, say, EasyJet or Ryanair. They rely that much more on international travel. Now, international travel will be the last to get up and running. Transatlantic travel corridors could be a positive for that. The US, UK, transatlantic routes, if a travel corridor is opened up there between, you know, for vaccinated people, that could be a little bit of a lifesaver for IAG. And you could see their shares move higher as a consequence of that. But certainly airlines and overseas travel are likely to be the last sectors to play catch-up as we look ahead to the reopening trade. Much more domestically focused stocks, like, for example, like Whitbread, who own Premier Inn, are likely to do better. Though in the city centers, those Premier Inns are likely to underperform relative to, say, for example, the seaside resorts for Premier Inns, which are likely to outperform. So basket trading of crypto could be a better way to go, but it depends on your appetite for risk. Stick with what you're comfortable with. It would be my advice to anyone looking to trade anything new. And just get used to the idea of trading the levels that you're used to.  Okay, so hopefully that answers your question about underperforming small caps. Generally, in markets such as these, investors generally prefer the safety of big caps as opposed to small caps. That's not to say that small caps won't do well, but you may have to be slightly more patient. What do I think can be the trigger for an equity market pullback if any? That's a good question. Well, we did see a pullback earlier this week, and it was very short lived. And I think something like that could be the catalyst for a pullback. But ultimately, while central banks remain committed to easy monetary policy, and while you've got a US administration talking about further fiscal stimulus, it's very hard to see where that black swan event could come from. And that's the problem I have. I am uncomfortable with some of the valuations that we're seeing at current levels. And certainly, I think you have to look in certain pockets for sort of a significant pullback. So for example, next week, we've got Airbnb's latest earnings numbers. I've talked about that in my weekly video, which you can see, it gets posted live on the CMC website at 4pm today. But again, you can also see it on the YouTube channel at youtube.com for CMC Markets PLC. Airbnb has a market capitalization of $94 billion. It's overall revenues in 2019 were four, it's annual revenues were $4.8 billion. Now, with the best will in the world, their expectation is for a return to 2019 annual revenues sometime later this year, maybe early next year. Now, Airbnb's $94 billion valuation is nearly double Marriott. It's a market cap Marriott, which is an international hotel chain, which has got a suite of hotels all over the world and well above IHG, which also has a global hotel chains. Now, you can argue that Airbnb doesn't have the real estate cost that Marriott and IHG do, but they don't have any assets whatsoever to speak of. So what justifies that $94 billion valuation? Nothing. And at the moment, if you look at an Airbnb chart, for example, which I will do when I'm looking at the IPOs that we've seen over the course of the past few days launched. For me, there is zero justification for that sort of valuation. Nonetheless, we've come down quite a lot from the $220 highs there, and we're now around about $153. But nonetheless, it's still an eye-wateringly high valuation. And then we look at, say, for example, something like what we saw yesterday with the Honest Company, Jessica Alba's new renewables. Obviously, that's only two candles there because it's only been trading for two days. But there we go. That's started to drift lower as well. And then you've got companies like Vroom who are also reporting next week. And then you've got Disney. Now, Disney's an interesting company because, for me, with the reopening of the theme parks, Disney should actually start to see its revenues improve as people start to go back to open-air activities. And they could actually reap the benefits of that. They've done well from streaming. But if we look at Disney chart, say, for example, in this one here, I've drawn a nice little line on this chart. So if Disney surprises to the upside, this uptrend that we've seen over the course of the past few weeks or so could actually continue. And actually, that trend line is rubbish because it's not even anchored to a particular point. So let me just redraw that. Get rid of that. Delete and redraw it. It's very important that any lines that you draw are accurate. There's decent support around about 180. We've bottomed there for two or three days in a row. So it might be worth sticking a line in through there. There we go. So are we hitting a short-term top in Disney? It's hard to say. I will certainly be interested to dig into the details of today's payrolls report to see why consensus estimates were so wide of the mark. It's certainly going to make for an interesting read and whether or not we'll get a very big rebound in the main numbers given the very decent employment components that we've seen in the ISM reports this week for May, April and May. I'd like to know where those missing jobs have gone. So hopefully I'll have a look at that in the wake of this webinar and hopefully try and put a little bit of colour onto why today's payrolls missed so much. Right, thoughts on copper? I did indicate, yeah, I talked about a major top, but we've blown through that now. So really, once we've blown through the top in copper, all bets are off. If we go back in this chart here to where we were back in 2011, we're way through that now. So really, it's a question of where do we go to next? And for me, the next target for copper is around about five dollars or so. That's really the key level for copper going forward. You know, that's a significant line in the sand really for me, I think. That's the next round number target for copper prices going forward now that we've broken above the previous highs. So I did say something about the crude oil. Yeah, I mean, I talked about the fact that there's a significant top at around about $72.50 which just to recap for you is this chart here. There we go. So if we extend that line, hopefully we can extend that line backwards. No, we can't. But if we go back to that peak there and that peak there, there is a significant barrier in and around $72.50 because that's the peaks from last year. This is a one-day one-year chart for crude oil. And not surprisingly on the back of those numbers, crude oil prices are dipping back from the highs that we saw earlier in the week. Is there anything else that you want me to look at? Canada figures also not great. Okay, let's look at Canada yen. Right, I'm looking at Canada yen. Really depends on where we finish today, Brian. The moment we put a nice little top in around about $90, it looks like we could see a little bit of a reversal. I think the big level for me on this is this peak here. If we break below the lows of Thursday, then you could see the beginnings of a bit of a reversal forming on the Canada yen chart. And that could start to see a little bit of a drift lower, particularly given the fact that we've seen a little bit of disappointment around that payroll's number for Canada. Nikkei being asked, okay, just quickly. We're still in the range for Nikkei at the moment. This triangular consolidation I've been talking about. We're still within that. So, yes, still range bound on the Nikkei. In answer to your question, Jeff, I think just continue to play that range. You've got fairly decent support in and around these lows here, fairly decent resistance in and around these sorts of peaks here. So still very much a range trade on the Nikkei. Okay, let me just quickly scroll up on various questions to make sure I haven't missed anybody. I don't want to miss anybody. What's happening with dollar CAD? I knew there'd be a question on that. I'm sorry, I almost missed it. Here we go. Right. The interesting thing about this chart is that we haven't really made new lows. And you'd think on a dreadful report like that, you would expect that the Canada would weaken a lot further than it has. The problem is you've seen, I think you've seen two less than impressive reports, shall we say, we've seen a disappointing Canada report, which missed expectations, and you've seen a disappointing US report. So for me in dollar CAD, I'm probably still more inclined to buy dollar CAD than sell it on the basis of those numbers, simply on the basis of the fact that we're at the very bottom end, or top end, depending on which way you want to describe it, of these numbers. So if I was to look at take a posse on dollar CAD and I'm not, but I certainly wouldn't want to be short dollars long CAD at these sorts of levels, just on the basis of risk reward, look at where we've come from, and look at where we are now. So for me, I would expect to see a little bit of a rebound over the course of the next few days, simply on the basis that again, we don't want to place too much emphasis on one particular set of numbers. So hopefully that answers your question, Steve. I don't expect too much of a directional change on dollar CAD, but if you were to force me into a position on it, I probably would probably be more more inclined to be long dollars short CAD than the other way around. Okay, let's have a quick look at sterling yen. Wow, that's a bit of a bit of a number. Sterling sterling yen. There we go. Let's get rid of that. Well, the bias on that still remains very much by the dips on sterling yen. Let's draw some lines on this and firm up the analysis. I mean, again, the bias for that remains for a move probably more to the upside than the downside, but we are finding a little bit of resistance through these peaks through here. So at the moment, I'm not inclined to do anything. If I'm long sterling yen, I'm probably inclined to take profit on it, look for a move back down here, and then for a move back higher again. By and large, I'm very much by the dip on sterling yen pretty much across the board when it comes to the pound. That's the way I play it because I still expect the pound to head through 140 over the course of the next few weeks and months. And for that, really take the cues from the cable chart here. If we can move through 140-20, then that should be fairly, that should be sterling positive. But at the moment, while that caps, we've got to be very, very careful about being overly aggressive on the sterling front. But certainly the bias favors a move for a firmer pound. Okay, right. I think I'm going to have to call it a day now, ladies and gentlemen. It's two o'clock and I've already run over by 15 minutes. But as I say, I do do a weekly video. So if there's anything that you want me to cover in the weekly video, just drop me an email or tweet me or whatever, and I will try and cover it for you. Otherwise, I'd like to thank you all for listening again. And I'll hopefully you will join me same time, same place a month from now when I cover the May payrolls numbers. In the meantime, I'd like to thank you all for tuning in.  Thanks for listening and have a great weekend.


World renewal song. Nothing was good. Winds blew and grasses died. I thought I was pitied, so I longed for a whole time song. I danced for it in deerskins. I made thought with paint and red lines from little finger to the left shoulder. I, silent, listening by dying grasses, began hearing at dawn. A new fire is lighted. The finished world is here, formed in mind patches. It is come, the song for rain and green and good. I sit by talking grasses now with nothing more to make a good world of than thought paint and dance talk and lines. But song colors pour over my world and my good time still goes on.