Hey guys welcome back to the channel.  Let's get into it.  And in the flip side if you're doing any of these we'll also talk about ways that you can make them better that way they're less face palm-y. Let's get to it. And so number one is reviewing your PowerPoints. Now here this from Students Lodge which says that their main kind of go-to is to review the slides they get from lecture the day before. Now I hear the strategy from students a lot where they say they basically go through their PowerPoints as many times as possible before a quiz. It just feel like every time they go they feel like they learned a little more. But the main test that I asked them and I'm going to ask you is that if you review your PowerPoints as a form of review or a study strategy how much of that PowerPoint do you really remember after like immediately after you're done. And some of my students especially the coaching students I work with will have this like a piffing and they're like honestly not very much. And situations like that are the perfect way to highlight when a study strategy doesn't work for you. So reviewing your PowerPoints is a very kind of passive form of learning and the most biggest issues that most students have and this is how you make it better is that there's no way to go from reviewing your PowerPoints to kind of having some kind of system where you can then review as a form of like question and answer. So one way to actually make PowerPoints more useful for you and not have to go through them many times is you can do things like adding questions to the side of them or in your comment section that way you can go through each individual slide and say do I know the answer to this question. If you do you move on to the next one if you don't then you look at the actual material on the slide to actually get the answer or you can use other advanced strategies that I talk about here in this on key video and how you can make a PowerPoint into an entire deck of flashcards within minutes. Now study strategy number two that you need to stop using is to create outlines. Now I know there's some students who swear by outlines so that you just like hear me out for just one second. I know why they're attractive. You know you can put all of your information from your own words in one place and make it as neat and nice possible. Biggest drawback however unfortunately is that it just takes too much time. If you're a pre-med or if you're med school or another type of schooling altogether that takes a lot of your time. Using a lot of your time to create your information for sure viewer information is really the biggest issue with a lot of these study strategies. I know from personal experience why outlines are attractive because that was my go-to study strategy my first few months in medical school and I would try to go through every syllabus chapter and lecture and try to put it into a essentially a mini notebook of all of outlines and ideally I knew that if I knew everything within the outline then I'd be great for the exam. The biggest problem again from this is that it just took me way too much time to make it. Often the information actually included wasn't that much in my own words as much as I thought I was when I was creating it. So often I was like why did I even write this because it still doesn't make sense to me. It sounds a lot like the power points I took the information from and I don't really understand what I was trying to tell myself here. So again just took me too much time and I wasn't able to get to the most important part of learning which is to review the actual material. And so a pro tip of how you can make outlines work better for you is instead of having an outline of facts, information, and bullet points you can essentially have a list of all the questions that you want to answer for an individual lecture. And I made a full video on how to do that here in a Q&E video. I'll also be linked down below. But essentially if you can look at all those questions and be like no majority of this you can move on to the next lecture. And if you don't then you can go back to your slides or the syllabus lecture that you got that question from and then fill in the gap. Now study strategy number three is group studying. And I know there's some of you guys that are like hold up, hold up, hold up. I love group studying. I love interacting with my peers. I love quizzing each other. I love going on whiteboard sessions. And all of that is very attractive. I personally like those aspects of group studying. The biggest problem is is that group studying is really dependent on one who you pick in your group. So you have to get that right. And two, how well your group does of helping you with your knowledge gaps. And if you somehow have the first aspect of the right and having the right people around you, usually the second thing is not to your advantage. Remember a group focus on things on a very scheduled basis. Today we're going to cover lecture one through 10. Tomorrow we're going to do lecture 11 through 20. But unfortunately maybe you needed more time on lecture one to 10 or a specific lecture that the rest of your group members just felt more strongly about. You don't get to have that sense of immediate review of them saying, well, actually you suck at lecture number five, but you're great at everything else your group is really spending time with. Yes, you can teach them. And yes, you can kind of hone in on your education of those lectures even more. But you are missing out on those things that you struggle with. And so to flip side, if you do enjoy group studying and working with your peers, one thing you could do is to create a big database of a bunch of questions that you and your peers create for each individual lecture. So you add your own, your peers add your own, and it doesn't really matter what you do on group studying. If there are certain lectures that you don't do so well on, you can try to see, can I answer the questions from lecture two that I created, that my peers created? If not, then maybe you can then ask them like, hey, what did you mean by this question? And that's where you fill in your gap for a lecture that they may otherwise not have given the attention or time for you to learn. A study strategy number four that you just simply need to stop doing is listening to lecture. Now, some students have already made this transition where they've realized that lectures are helpful that perhaps I can speed it up or go through a supplementary resource, but some students still have committed to going to lecture because they feel like they've learned better by sitting there for an hour a day listening to somebody talk to them. And whether you're in person or listening to a lecture on a virtual platform, doesn't really matter. A majority of us simply just don't use that hour or half an hour depending on if you speed up a lecture or not effectively. Just again, ask your questions just like we did for the PowerPoint. How much do you remember after you leave the lecture hall from what he just said? And simply to highlight the effectiveness or lack thereof of listening to a lecture, use the same exercise we just used for PowerPoints, which is imagine you left the lecture hall immediately after the lecture ended. How much do you remember? How much do you recall? If you had to teach a complete stranger to say, Hey, like I just didn't get to attend class, can you just teach me everything they taught you? Yes, there's going to be things that stuck out. There's going to be some things you're like, I actually don't remember that. And how ridiculous is it to just like spend an hour of your life and saying, I only remember like 20 to 30% of what I just learned there. And this is the lesson that I learned the hard way of really early on in medical school, which is that lectures simply weren't my main form of learning.  So let's focus on those first two things and spend more of your time doing that, whether that means going back to lecture for the PowerPoints, but using those resources like PowerPoints, outlines and lectures as your primary form of learning and then fitting in time for things which are really the most important which is flashcards, practice questions, whiteboard sessions, and really honing in on your mistakes is really the biggest issue that students have in medical school as well as other parts in their educational career. So on the flip side, one way you can make lecture more effective is as you're going through lectures, just like we did before, whether you're making your outlines or the PowerPoints, add questions to the notes you actually take. And if there's a session where the professor is just going on a tangent or you're not really sure what they're saying, you can take a half second and can I answer those last five questions that I wrote down. If you can't, perfect, you made a retention that's going to help you in the future. If you can't, then maybe you can go back to that slide as he or she finishes up their tangent and then as soon as their tangent is over, you can pick right back up and add your notes and questions for upcoming reviews. Next, we have to talk about annotating on a high yield resource. Now, I hear this study strategy a lot, especially for medical students who will grab some kind of high yield resource, particularly for like a board exam, and while they're watching videos or learning from lectures or flashcards, then they write and spend time creating notes and annotations on the respective chapters, because they say, okay, when it's time to study for board exams, I'm going to use this like personalized notebook that I've created myself of those notes. But the problem really lies in the amount of time you spend in creating those annotations, because again, I asked my coaching students all the time, they're like, oh, you're taking notes, cool. How often do you use those notes to review what you just learned? And somebody will say, no, I'm just kind of hoping I can use it in the future. Again, you will learn so much better if you focus on reviewing now and having a system where you can continue to review up until exam day versus like creating some kind of saying, I hope I eventually get back to this later. So instead, you can go from a system where you go from video to annotation to saying, oh, I'm going to do videos to related on key cards or flashcards from that video or videos to practice questions. And if you miss certain topics, you can say, oh, while that video made sense, I still miss these sequels of questions. And while I thought the connection was there, actually wasn't. That is an immediate form of kind of feedback you have, and that helps the learning process, both in a short as well as long term. And then the last study technique that you need to stop using, this is something I was using. So just like listen to my first year self when I say this, stop reading your syllabus and taking notes. Now, if you watch many of my other videos here on YouTube, and if you haven't, I'll just link down below a study playlist that we have for you, understand that learning happens in a variety of forms. One is where you can gather information. Two is when you review and actually learn the information. And three is when you continue to review and test yourself to really build your knowledge. The latter half is really where your attention, both short term and long term happen. Fortunately, most of us spend way too much time on the information gathering case, then we do of actually learning and reviewing the material. And the same goes for when you read your syllabus and you're taking notes. If again, if I had to ask you the question of like, how much do you remember after you read that syllabus chapter, most of the say, 15, 20, 30 percent? And if those are the answers for the study techniques you're using, then either the question needs to be, do I even need to do this in the first place, or two, how can I speed this up so then I can go to something that increased my retention by 70 to 80 percent. Most students, including my past self, fell into this trap thinking that you have to spend time reading a syllabus, lecture, and taking notes in the hope of ideally remembering it, want to practice question, as well as an exam or quiz question comes in the future. And but in reality, most of us don't go back to the reading material much less the actual notes that we created. So really that time that we spent was not that effective versus me doing the lecture a little bit quicker, even though all the retention wasn't there, to then be able to jump to something that increases my retention, like asking myself questions, using pre-made practice questions of my school or professor or lecturer may have given, or doing pre-made onky decks or practice questions, those really say, okay, like, you learned about microstatic anemia, you just did questions on a microstatic anemia, and dang, love, you suck at microstatic anemia. Let's go watch a video, let's go read that lecture in the specific part to really understand the nuances, you know, making the mistakes and making those corrections as many times as possible is really where the retention happens, but simply reading and taking notes on the side on things that you eventually will not come back to is a complete waste of time, but those guys are some of the worst study strategies you may be using, I know I definitely used a lot of them, and also ways that you can make them better. Now, again, if you're using some of these, don't get offended if it's like your best way to study, just ask yourself how effective is it as you walk away from that study strategy in terms of overall retention? If it's something that you actually find to be really effective, stay to it, don't let this video and don't let my lack of knowledge on how you're studying really dictate what you should be doing or not, but if you do walk away from a study strategy saying it really wasn't that helpful, I just felt like it's something I should be doing, ask yourself how you can make it a little bit more effective or jump to something more effective quicker. Now, we covered a lot in this video and this is really the surface or the tip of the iceberg of how you can improve your study. Now, there's a few ways you can learn how to do this, one, you can watch a video like this on how you can study step by step here on the Amity Journey YouTube channel, and I promise you that video will break down a lot of different things that you can do better and more correct, as well as checking out programs like our rapid study accelerator, which something you can watch in literally a day or two to really say, okay, I don't need this in my study strategy, I definitely need this. And this is how next couple of weeks and months I'm going to make my study system more efficient. This exact study system that I basically use to go from 10 hours a day to five hours a day. And it's not necessarily going to tell you what study strategy you should be using, but specifically what study strategy will work for you to become more and more efficient. For watching this video, if there's a little bit of excitement as well as anxiety, understanding that maybe you need to make a lot of changes, and you want to have somebody just personally walk you through how to fix it and doing it really quickly, then consider checking out our one-on-one coaching programs, which is basically you can kind of see the types of results of students that are getting it simply after one call. So if you feel like you need a complete overhaul, a complete redirection, want to study less, still get better grades, then check out our study program and coaching program down below as well. But those guys are some of the worst study strategies you could be using. If you agree or disagree with me, add your comments down below. Maybe there's something that you're actually using here, but you're using in a different way that maybe I didn't think about. Love to hear from you, so add your comments down below. If you did enjoy this video, if you're like, yeah, it wasn't terrible. Hit that like button really helps support the video, helps the channel. And the main reason I asked to smash that like button is not only for me and for the channel, but there is somebody who is probably using majority of these study strategies. If it's not you, maybe it's one of your classmates or somebody across the world that you'll never get to meet, but maybe hitting that like button increases your chances. This video shows up in front of their face and say it's half. Maybe I should improve my study strategy. So if you want to show your support for the channel, as well as your fellow student colleagues, then go ahead and hit that like button. If you're new to this channel or have been lurking around, hit that subscribe button as well as notification bell to get notified when a new video is just like this one, go out on a weekly basis. With that being said guys, thank you so much for making it to the very end of the video. Hopefully I was a little helped to you guys on your journey. Thanks for always being a part of mine. I'll see you guys in the next video. If you did enjoy this video, again, this video right here on how to study in medical school step by step, as well as this video right here on how to use Anki like a pro to just like destroy it. Hopefully you guys enjoy these and I'll see you guys in the next one. Take care my friends. Peace.


TEFL jobs in Chile Chile's economy is relatively healthy compared to other Latin American countries and the demand for TEFL jobs in Chile has grown along with the economy. The market for positions teaching business English is thriving and there is a growing demand for teachers to teach younger learners of English. Chile has lots of private language academies, especially in Santiago, the capital. If you have a well-recognized TEFL certificate, you shouldn't have difficulty finding an adequate job. How to find a TEFL job in Chile Schools advertise TEFL jobs in Chile frequently on major TEFL websites. It's a good idea to contact these schools six months before you plan to arrive in Chile. Make sure you provide them with a private teacher professional resume that is up to date and that emphasizes your education, TEFL experience and training, and your international experience. But don't limit yourself to schools advertising TEFL jobs. You can get contact information for other schools from business directories like the White Pages, Language School Directories and English and Spanish Language National Newspapers. Make sure you keep track of who you've contacted and be sure to follow up a couple of weeks after the initial contact. If the school doesn't have a position available at the time, this might change in a couple of weeks, so stay in touch. When to apply for a TEFL job in Chile It's best to apply for jobs by October for the next school year in Chile, which starts at the end of March. Schools may not contact you until the new year if you apply early. Schools also often have to recruit at the last minute when previously made arrangements fall through, so there are opportunities before March as well. Once you have the attention of a school, they will want an interview either by phone or in person. Once an offer has been made, you should give them your decision within a few days. Schools tend to want a firm reply fairly quickly. They are required to offer you a contract. Good TEFL jobs, good TEFL habits. Make sure you have answers to all questions regarding salary or hourly pay rate, whether you'll have to travel to your lessons and if you get compensated for this time and reimbursed for expenses, what kind of material resources the school has for lesson planning and teaching materials, what kind of administrative and collegial support you will have, etc. A contract is necessary to get a work visa. Ask the school if they will help you with this process. It can take some time in Chile to get through this process, but most schools can at least help you with prolonging your initial visa. Most schools in Chile will want to put you through their own training program, but if you have a TEFL certificate from a four-week course or a 100-hour online course, this requirement is usually waived. The class sizes will vary from individuals up to 12 students. Teaching hours can be patchy with classes early and then late in the day, but this leaves you time in the middle of a day to catch up on sleep, lesson plan or just have fun. We hope you find this information useful and you enjoy your TEFL job in Chile.


Remember a Hallmark card when you carry enough to send the very best. The pictures of Hallmark cards bring you another in their exciting new series of broadcasts. On the Hallmark Hall of Faith. Hallmark brings you true to life stories of actual persons who in their own way have contributed to a better world for all of us to live in. Presented by our distinguished host, Mr. Lionel Barrymore. On the Hallmark Hall of Faith. Tonight we pay a double tribute to William Dunlap, founder of the American Theater, and to a great and good friend of Hallmark, who is celebrating his completion of 60 successful years as star of stage, screen and radio. The Dean of the American Theater today, our own host and narrator, Mr. Lionel Barrymore. Thank you. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you, Frank. I just want to say that I'm particularly happy that my sixth year in the theater finds me associated with Hallmark cards in such a fine dramatic series as the Hallmark Hall of Faith. And I'd like to add that all of us who are active in the theater owe a special debt of gratitude to the man whose true and fascinating story we're telling tonight, William Dunlap, father of the American Theater. And now a message from the makers of Hallmark cards. When you want to remember your friends, there's one way to be sure the card you send receives an extra welcome. Look for that identifying Hallmark on the back when you select it. For words to express your feelings and designs to express your good taste. Let the Hallmark on the back be your guide. For that Hallmark tells your friends, you cared enough to send the very best. Lionel Barrymore appears by arrangement with Metro Golden Mayor, producers of the Technicolor musical Small Town Girl starring Jane Powell and Folly Granger. And now Lionel Barrymore brings you the first act of our Hallmark Hall of Faith. In the America of today, the drama is one of the livelies of the arts. But once, there was a time when the American theater scarcity existed. We were without playwrights, producers, or actors, and theaters. In fact, when the Revolutionary War ended, the law and many of the new United States actually prohibited the performance of any type of stage play. To see a professional play performed by competent actors, one had to cross the Atlantic to England. And so it is to England that we turn first. It's in 1785 and the beautiful Sarah Siddons is making theatrical history at London's Drury Lane Theater. The performance is over now and Mrs. Siddons returns to her dressing room. As she closes the door, she realizes that she's not alone. Tall, handsome youth steps forward and bows respectfully. Apologies for this intrusion, madam. I bribed your attendance to allow me to enter. Who are you, sir, and what is your business? William Dunlap, madam. And with your permission, a humble gift from a devoted admirer. Well, a portrait of me, yes, and in the role of Desdemona. You painted it? Yes, madam. Well, how very nice. Forgive my presumption that I should attempt to capture the same beauty which has inspired such artists as Gainsborough and Sir Joshua Reynolds. My dear boy, you're much too young for such elegant speeches. Do you always talk like this? No, I memorized it. And it sounded like it. How old are you? Nineteen. I see. And now, Mr. Dunlap, what do you really want of me? A recommendation, perhaps? An introduction to some possible patron or teacher of art? Well, I have a teacher, madam. Benjamin West. Benjamin West? Well, if you're in the best of hands. But come now, what do you want? To become an actor, to live and eat and breathe the theater. But why?  Why was, madam, until I had the privilege of seeing you act? But now the theater is my only dream. If I had only known before, but you see, in America, we have no stage. Oh, then you're an American now, I understand. Then please, if you will help me. Perhaps I can join your company. If I can't act, then I shall write plays for others to perform. Mr. Dunlap, you're very young. Young like your nation. I suggest that if you truly love the theater, and if you have talent that you go back to America, share your ambitions with your own people. England may not need you, but your country does. In due time, young William Dunlap follows the advice of England's great actress. He returns to New York City and to an angry father. The theater? What theater? May the day never come when this country suffers such contamination. I'm sorry, Father, I'd hoped you would understand. I understand this, William.  They're no better than wandering gypsies and cutpers. But you've never met any, Father. Mrs. Siddons is a great actress, and she's one of the finest ladies in England. I am not going to argue with you, William.  What other artist can say, as you can, that at the age of 17, he painted the portrait of General George Washington? Well, this is important, my boy. It assures you the best of clients.  But suppose I choose not to be what you call a gentleman. Suppose I give up art. Can you? How would you live? If you do not paint portraits, you must become my partner in business. I see no other choice. That means for you to decide. No, there is no other choice for young William. Not for a while. Better to earn a living as a portraitist than to become a junior partner in his father's China importing company. So William Dunlap opens a small portrait studio. A studio soon familiar to the ladies and gentlemen of society. It's there that William first meets Elizabeth Woolsey. According to the strict fashion of that day, the lovely Elizabeth is shaper owned by a mother who sets to one side and reads a book while the painter executes her daughter's portrait. Miss Woolsey, a bit more tilt to the chin, please. Like this? Perfect, perfect. Thank you. Mr. Dunlap. Yes, Mrs. Woolsey. I am relying upon you to complete this commission by our next visit. I'm afraid that's impossible, ma'am. Impossible? Mr. Dunlap, this is my daughter's seventh sitting for you. Our patience is exhausted. Well, I'm sorry, ma'am, but your daughter's eyes present a problem. Yes, I've noticed that. Elizabeth, your gaze is supposed to be to the left, I believe, not at Mr. Dunlap. Yes, ma'am. Well, there's a carry, darling. Till your father will be out directly. Darling. Oh, be careful, William. She may see you. I don't care. It's time we told her. No, no, not yet. Oh, William, you must not keep on delaying. You've just got to finish my portrait. Well, then how shall I see you? Well, I'll think of an excuse I... Wait, you can do mother's portrait.  Well, I mean, I'd be delighted, of course. Of course. Oh, William, tell me again. We interrupt this program. We have interrupted this program to bring you a bulletin from CBS Radio News. The first group of sick and wounded Allied prisoners of war is now being turned over to the United Nations command by the Communists in Korea. For a direct report, we switch now to Freedom Village, Korea, George Herman reporting. We're turning to the United Nations. The first is P.F.C. Armand Nolan, like in Senator Nolan. He's from Rackville, New York. He was in the 2nd Division, the 38th Infantry, captured at Kunari. The second is P.F.C. Marvin L. Brown. He is from Oklahoma City. This is Freedom Village, and now we're turning you back to the United States. You adjust... It's just that... Well, you never said anything about this before. ...from CBS Radio News. At 10.30 Eastern Time tonight, or many of these stations, CBS Radio News will present a special program, including the names and home addresses of all American prisoners of war exchanged up to that time. We now resume our regularly scheduled program. Perhaps I should have mentioned this before? Yes. Yes, you should have. Elizabeth, we can't argue about something which you don't understand. How can you know what the theater really is? It doesn't exist in this country. You've never seen a real play. But I have. I've seen several delightful little skits. They were amateur performances in our own home, acted by genteel people, by our friends. And badly done, I'm sure. Can't you see, Elizabeth? I want to bring the real theater to the people. Eh, Mr. Dunlap? Oh. Oh. I'm sorry, sir. I wasn't aware of something. We are not including, sir, General George Washington excels his compliments. Oh. William. General Washington. My respects, Mr. Dunlap. Much has happened for all of us since that day you painted my portrait in the Army camp. Indeed, there has, sir. At General Washington, may I present Mr. Elizabeth Woolsey?  I'm honored, sir. Have a brief, Mr. Dunlap. I have here several miniatures of my wife and children. I should appreciate it if you might be able to make a set of copies. It'll be a pleasure, sir. I wish to present the copies to my friend General Lafayette. Eh, if you might have them ready on my return to New York for my inauguration. Certainly, sir. Thank you. May I add a word of friendly counsel? Yes, of course, General. I overheard your remarks concerning the theater. I share your interest in that subject and also your concern. The English and French and German languages are rich in the works of great dramatists, but unfortunately, we can only rid them and imagine their true power when acted by great interpreters. I agree, sir. Then let nothing dissuade you, sir, from your ambition. Bring these works to life for us. Give the people pleasure and education. Bring us the wisdom and the inspiration of great thinkers, which all of us shall need in the days still before us. It may not be easy, sir. It may be there hard. It will be hard. And yet, for me, there can be no turning away. I shall do all that is possible and even what is thought impossible. You have my word, General Washington. One moment, we return to the second act of the Hallmark Hall of Fame. Last week, I had occasion to go through a trunk in the attic which belonged to my grandmother, and as I searched, I found dozens of little treasures which her children had given to her through the years. They were small things of no value to anyone, except a mother, like notes and pictures and cards. And yet, it occurred to me that all of us try, in every generation, to tell our mothers just how much we think of them. In fact, that's why Mother's Day was established years ago. On the second Sunday in May, we take time out to express our feelings toward our mother with thoughtful messages that come right from the heart. And that's why I think you'll enjoy selecting your Mother's Day card from the new Hallmark collection. You will find appropriate Hallmark Mother's Day cards for every taste. Beautiful, warm-hearted cards with words that say what you want to say, just the way you want to say them. And here's something nice to remember. When your card is read and closed, the familiar Hallmark and crown on the back will give it added meaning, for it says you carry enough to send the very best. And now, Lionel Barrymore brings you the second act of our true story of William Dunlap. William Dunlap, there are two all-consuming ambitions in life, to marry the lovely Elizabeth Woolsey and to be a part of the fierce. An artistic institution still unheard of in the America of 1789. In that year, William and Elizabeth are married. In the months that follow, William half-heartedly pursues his career as a portrait painter. More and more of the time, he's away from the studio. Then one day, he returns to find his father and Elizabeth waiting for him. William, I didn't want to come here, but your father insisted. I did indeed. Your husband's future is your concern as well as mine. I presume, Father, that you've heard something to upset you. I have. First, William, perhaps you will explain where you've been all afternoon. At a coffee house. At a coffee house. And yesterday afternoon, then the day before that. At the coffee house? At least you're truthful. But meanwhile, how do you expect to support your wife? How many portraits have you painted in the past month? Only one, sir. Friend of mine, Charles Cooper. Hmm. Hungry-looking individual in a patched front cut. And from his appearance, I'm sure he can hardly afford to pay you your commission. That would be quite impossible. He's an actor.  Actors. Those are his coffee house friends. They are, sir. I need their advice on the play I'm writing. A play? He is in gentlemen of fashion. You must end this bizarre... Elizabeth. Yes, William? I can see that this does involve you. I want to know how you feel. Then I think you should give up your painting. Darling. At least for a while, William. Your father's still willing to make you a partner in his business. Don't refuse him again. Oh. I see. Thank you, Elizabeth. Thank you. Between us, we'll make up proper young men of him yet. And wealthy. And when he is, Mr. Dunlap, I'm going to be the first to tell him buy your own theater, William. Present your own plays. Make your theater come true. Elizabeth. Oh, my darling. And so, William Dunlap becomes a man of business. But only during the daylight hours, long into the night, this man of determination sits at his desk writing and rewriting his play, which he calls The Father of an Only Child. Finally, it's completed and actually produced. It means fame. Yes. But money? No. Eight more years of struggle at the past before William Dunlap, businessman, becomes William Dunlap theatrical producer. It is in 1796 that he's the owner of New York's only theatrical concern known as the Old American Company. One evening, he is watching the performance from backstage. Will, Will, tell him to close the curtain.  What's wrong, Charles? Wrong. Look up at the balcony. Now it's the next morning. William and Elizabeth stumble through the blackened ruins. Elizabeth buries her head against her husband's shoulder and sobs a heartbreak. Gone. Everything gone. Yes, everything. Theater, money, even the partnership with my father. The partnership? What a man is forced into bankruptcy. Everything is taken. I'm sorry, my dear. I've failed. No, no, darling. How can you say that? What you've done once, you can do again. Then you're not discouraged? I was, but only for a moment. So long as we have each other, Will and the children, nothing else matters. No, I'm not discouraged. Then neither am I. Let them take everything. I still know how to write and paint. And that's our answer, Elizabeth. With pen and brush, I'll make a new theater rise from these ruins, a finer theater for all of us. So William Dunlap begins all over again. The times have changed now. And William finds few portraits to paint. He writes plays and translates the works of European dramatists. But there are no theaters in which to produce them. A year passes, then two years. One afternoon, the penniless Dunlap wanders into the coffee house of his younger and happier days. Will, will Dunlap. It's wonderful to see you again. Hello, Charles. Well, how are you? Very well, thanks. But about you, none of us have seen you since, well, since the night of the fire. That's been over two years. Yes, well, I've been busy, Charles. Will, you remember painting my portrait, the portrait I couldn't pay for? Of course. And the time you gave me a part in your first play when I couldn't buy my own dinner? Well, I needed a good actor, Charles. Yes. Just as we need a good partner right now. What? We? Charles Brockton Brown and myself. We bought the new park theater. We need the best play we can find and the best man to present. Well, it's good of you, Charles, but I haven't come to charity yet. Charity? Well, it's you who would be giving to us.  An American theater. Perhaps at last, this is the time. Charles, Charles, I've written a new play. I call it Andre. The opening night of William Dunlap's presentation of Andre is a historic occasion. Governor John Jay sits in the box of honor flanked by the leaders of New York society. When the curtains close after the last scene, and while the audience still applauds, Will joins the cast on stage. And then suddenly, he sees an elderly man push his way through the milling crowd. Father, you here in a theater? I don't blame you for being surprised, my boy, and yet I'm proud to be here. Tonight, you prove that the theater is not a disgrace, but a glory. Then I'm still a gentleman. More than that, William, a great pioneer. I'm going to say Governor Jay, ladies and gentlemen, not many years ago, George Washington was inaugurated president in this city. A few months before that, I had the honor of a visit from General Washington. Give us, he told me, the works of great dramatists. Give the people pleasure and education. Bring us the wisdom and the inspiration of great thinkers which all of us shall need in the days before us. It is but a promise of better things to come. Page and on stages still to be built in this city and in other cities. The ideas of Ben Johnson, Sheridan, Bolier, of great men entertain and to educate. From this beginning tonight, we shall go forward to a theater which belongs to all the people everywhere in these United States. William Dunlap was to be hailed as the father of the American theater. From his pen flowed a total of 60 plays of his own creation or adaptation through the vision and devotion of William Dunlap, artist, playwright, and producer, the American theater was to become a respected art and profession. A stage which was to echo with the names of the great Booth and Belasco and Sir Henry Irving and Joseph, Jefferson, Moody. Well, the list of names is almost endless. But at the top of the list, the very first name we'll always read, William Dunlap. Well, I'll be back with a preview of next week's program in just a moment. But first, here's Frank Goss with a May Day suggestion for you. Have you seen the Hallmark May baskets mothers and teachers are talking about all over the country? They're pretty colorful baskets the youngsters can put together themselves without the aid of scissors or glue. Once they're made, Hallmark May baskets are ready to fill with a few candies and flowers and to leave on the doorsteps of friends. Justice children have done for years. Ever since the pilgrims first brought the custom to America. It's a wonderful way to celebrate the fine old custom of May Day and to teach little folks thoughtfulness at the same time. Yes, and here's a tip for you spring hostesses. You can add a delightful touch of color to your bridal shower or bridge tables by using Hallmark May baskets as favors. They cost just 50 cents for a package of five different designs. So look for Hallmark May baskets the next time you shop at a fine store where Hallmark cards are sold. You'll recognize them instantly by the Hallmark and Crown on the package. The symbol you always look for when you carry enough to send the very best. Mr. Barrymore, all of us on the Hallmark Hall of Fame are proud to join your millions of friends all over America in extending our sincerest congratulations to you on this occasion of your having completed 60 years in the American theater. Thank you, thank you very much. I certainly appreciate it. They've been wonderful years, all 60 of them. And believe me, I'm looking forward to the 61st right here with you and the Hallmark Hall of Fame. Well, I hope you'll let us congratulate you on another important milestone coming up next week, Mr. Barrymore. Yeah, well, of course, sir. Well, I know all our friends will want to join us in wishing you a happy birthday. Oh, oh, that's right. It'll be here in just a few days. Our very best wishes to you, Mr. Barrymore, from all of us on the Hallmark Hall of Fame. Yes, thank you, Frank, thank you, thank you. And now, ladies and gentlemen, I think it's time I told you what we're planning on the Hallmark Hall of Fame next Sunday. We're going to bring you the true and inspiring story of John McDonough in the special May Day tribute. I hope you'll be listening. Our Hallmark Hall of Fame is every Sunday. Our producer-director is William Gaye, and our script tonight was written by Lenard Sinclair. Until next Sunday then, this is Lionel Barrymore saying goodnight. There are sold-only in stores that have been carefully selected to give you expert and friendly service. Remember a Hallmark card when you will carry enough to send the very best. Our cast tonight included Whitfield Conner as William Dunlap, Barbara Eiler as Elizabeth, Ben White as George Washington, Ted DeCorsia as the father, Harley Bear as Charles Cooper, and Betty Lou Gerson as Mrs. Sitton. On Sunday afternoon, April 26th, there will be a special Hallmark Hall of Fame program. Hallmark cards will present Mr. Maurice Evans in his two-hour television production, of William Shakespeare's Hamlet, consult your paper for time and channel. This is Frank Goss saying goodnight to you all until next week at the same time when we present another true-to-life story of actual persons who, in their own way, have contributed to a better world for all of us to live in. Next Sunday, we bring you our special Mayday tribute when we honor John McDonough on the Hallmark Hall of Fame. This is the CBS Radio Network.


Four reasons why Argentina is a great place to teach English abroad. Argentina is not only the fourth most populated Spanish-speaking country in the world but it also offers great opportunities for English teachers all over the country. Attracted by the vibrant culture, exciting nightlife and spectacular national wonders, many thousands of people come to live and work in Argentina each year. Find out why Argentina is a great place to teach English abroad in this article. Fascinating Natural Beauty The scenery of Argentina ranges from snowy mountains and blue lakes in the south to the most amazing waterfalls in the northeast near Brazil that will really take your breath away. The Cerro de los Seven Colores offer picturesque scenery paired with amazing wildlife, and the Glacier Perrito Moreno, the largest glacier in the country, should also not be forgotten. This wide range of landscapes allows you to engage in a variety of activities, including skydiving, trekking, canoeing, skiing and much more. The diversity of scenery and weather in the country also invites you to try a variety of food and traditional dishes. You should definitely try Argentinian barbecue, or the unique stew lacro, which is made from corn, pumpkin, bacon, and sausages. Marvelous History, Culture, and Architecture Argentina has an incredible history and its culture, and architecture, bears witness to Spanish colonial times. Most cities in Argentina feature majestic churches and old cobblestone streets of the colonial era that remain next to modern buildings and commercial centers. Large cathedrals and palaces could also be found in cities around the country, and do not forget the old train stations that are true jewels of the colonial times. Welcoming and Vibrant Locals Argentina is famous for its vibrant nightlife and many people go out to pubs, restaurants, cinemas and theaters to socialize. It's not a rare to find locals dancing tango in pubs and cafes, especially in La Boca, a famous neighborhood in Buenos Aires. Argentina's incredible football culture also invites you to head to a stadium and experience the heat first hand. Moreover, Argentina is home to the largest selection of libraries in the world allowing you to forget the time reading. Locals in Argentina are very friendly and interested in foreigners visiting from abroad. Argentinians always welcome tourists and show great respect to those who want to stay and live in their country. Attractive Job Opportunities Students in Argentina learn English from an early age as it is the most important second language for people in the country. As English is important for travel and work in Argentina, English teachers are in high demand here. Teachers don't only work for English language schools but also for major companies focusing on business English. On top of that, Argentina has a very low cost of living, allowing teachers to live a comfortable lifestyle and maybe even save some money during their stay. Teacher salaries in Argentina are also amongst the highest in the Latin American region. The highest demand for qualified teachers can be found in the capital Buenos Aires. If you want to work in Argentina, it is important to know that the majority of teachers are hired via face-to-face interviews rather than from abroad. That's why it is best to travel to Argentina and conduct your job search locally. The main hiring seasons are February, March and July, August. It started and take our four-week and class-deafle certification course in Buenos Aires, Argentina and find out more about living and working in Argentina in our country guide. Are you ready to teach English in Argentina? There are many reasons to go teach English in Argentina and wherever you are based in the country, you are sure to have the experience of a lifetime. Speak with an ITTT advisor today to put together your personal plan for teaching English abroad. Send us an email or call us toll-free at 1-800-490-0531 to speak with an ITTT advisor today.


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Hello guys, so this video is basically on-demand video for our previous videos Like we have done Firebase cloud operations So I got one comment from the viewer that They want to see how to add a search bar and how to open the detail of particular entry So for that we are going to continue with this project. So I have already uploaded the video for the same As I have deleted all my firebase project. So I created the same project whatever we have done so far. Let's go to the firebase Database first and check out. We have some entries over here Let's go ahead and in order to show you that it is here. We can cross check it. The comma is there five Then puja is there one then aric is there two Then rio is there md is there. Let's quickly add a new entry so that we can see everything is working fine So let's use this id string paste and we have already till the roll number five. Let's add roll number six and your name let's say imani max 96 So we can just go to the project And reload it so that we can see everything is updated Okay, so you got imani over here So first of all we need to just create a new page for opening the detail part. So let's create a details dot dot five And just create a stateless widget that is details And here we need one student information. Let's quickly create a variable final student student So this we need to import. Let's quickly import the student model So here we need material let me import it And we will add this in constructor as a required argument And here we need to return a scaffold and just add the app bar And in this app bar we can add some title And we can simply say student detail So let's add const here make it center title And now we need one body part Let's add single child scroll view And we just add a child. Let's take a center Let's add one more child as column And let's add children's and here we can simply use a text that is student name And let's save this and try to use it first of all Go to home page and just find your card or your style basically And we will add just on Tap here And here we will just do navigation Navi Gator dot push. So basically we will push it Context and route And just use material page route and simply pass The builder with context and here we need to return this Details And we need to pass the student. So we already have students And just use this like Save this So let's try to go to komer And we would come up Come back money Okay, so it is working now. So let's go to this details page and quickly design it more Let's add the styles first work and Increase the font size Textiles font size. So let's give it 22 add const And we'll add just const size box as well With some height or spacing Save this Okay, and we will just make this text bold as well. So font weight font weight dot bold Save this So we just do some interpolation Let's do like this and say Name and do like this Okay, the same way we need a few more things. Let me just copy this Paste it this is for Marks and marks. Yeah, that's also there Roll number and we can just decrease the spacing to five That would be enough save this We can also add some decoration like Let's quickly add here one card. We just use one Pacing over here as well And in this card, we can use some chart Let's use a column Children we can just display one icon over here and Then we can display that The text field for the playing that Marks so I just to use here Let's use some icon. Let's say some files underscore Present And we use some size. Let's say 100 And for text we will be using like student We just need to add some condition here Student dot marks are let's say less than 33. Then we can simply say Fail Otherwise student Mark less than 65 Then pass Otherwise it would be distinct So what We are facing here. Let me add comma first of all and then So let's add const here first of all And we will do some decoration part Now what we are facing here Here we just use this And save this So it is showing fail here So what we can do we can just increase the Text size as well Well, let's add style Text style Point size, let's say 22 and Point weight Point weight dot bold Save this and we can add one more coloring scheme over here like color so if student Dot marks is less than 33 then it should be colors dot red Otherwise it should be colors dot green I think that's enough And same way we can add some decoration to this card as well like Let's use this same Property over here For this card And add comma save this And in this we will just decrease this to Shade 200 Save this Or we can just make it 200 Save this We can add one more condition here And let's say utilize this Yellow color If the marks are less than 65 Then we can use that Colors dot yellow dot shade 100 Think that's fine Let's go back and try to see all these conditions Yep This Okay, we do add little padding over here. So that should look nice Just wrap it with the padding of That's it then Save this go back here Seems like the vector Yep So same way we can just add this I think that's all for this if you want you can add more decoration part So it is closed. Let's remove this save this And now it should look hiding better This one fine This one fine Someone is fair then it should look like this So that's all for this detail section. Let's quickly go to the home page And start adding That search bar So let's simply go to the app bar first of all And here We need to add action So under action we can use icon button And in on press we can write some code Let's decide it later and let's give it one icon that is icon stop such So since it is constant head cost So that's fine. Now what I want when I tap on this search It should display a search Field over here so that I can type something and look for the respective entries So first of all we just create one variable over here So let's create bool is such Clicked Is equal to false Okay, and since we need to maintain the state. So let's quickly go here and convert it into stateful And what to our negative showing we'll just add a constant modifier So we just go here go here That's fine. So here we will decide from this Whether someone has clicked on this or not if it is clicked then we will show that text field for searching So let's go here And instead of displaying this we will just look here If the search bar is clicked Then simply show a card Which would have some child that would be text field and Save this So let's try to see this So on the click of this we are not doing anything. So what we need to do we need to just change the value of this So let's quickly sit state It's equal to its corresponding. So we'll use this Because whenever I will just again click on this Just want to hide it as well Okay, and one more thing if It is clicked Now I will go for the icon as well And I will just look for If this is clicked that means I should not display this icon That means I should display icons dot close Okay, let's remove this constant as we added some condition So I just add a constant for the time being since I have not added anything. So let's go here and check So we got this close now So now we can do what we can just quickly decorate this Let's add decoration input decoration and We can use some hint text, let's say Search Save this Let's go here and see it looks like this. So we can add little padding as well. Let me wrap this text here with padding And we will just add not all we just use symmetric And I think five Enough for horizontal Save this That's all Okay, fine That's close such Close Okay, fine. So one more thing here before doing that whenever someone type Into this text field you can either add a Controller to this Or you can just set the state whatever way you want you can use So what I do is I just use On Change property here You want you can use controller as well So once on changes executed it will give you the value available in that field Whatever input is done by the user. So what error it is saying it is saying invalid constant to let me remove this const Here And just add it here wherever required And here we can just say set state and we can keep this value somewhere So I will just create one variable here string Let's say search text So initially I will just keep it empty And whenever something is typed I will just update the value into that Okay So now we are getting that value entered by the user And let's go back to the list view Here So here we need to check if this is Empty Then we can display this this way that we'll do Otherwise Otherwise we need to display On the Required data So what I do is I can just take all this List view builder And we just need to add the condition over here actually So here Whenever we are displaying the card So what I do just in order to remove the complexity I just take out this card And we just extract it into something like get card Okay So this I'm gonna get my card Fine. So what I need to do here first of all I'll Cut this thing And convert it into novel method so that we can better understand everything So here we need to return actually We need to add Some condition here Okay, so we just if student dot text is empty then we can simply display If it is not empty that means something has to be searched In that scenario we need to add some condition over here So what we can do here? So first of all, let me Just go back here and put semicolon And put semicolon And here we just need to look for Am I missing something? So just add the semicolon over here. Okay, so if something is to be searched Means you that have entered something to be searched Then we need to look for that value. So let's add a condition here if The search text dot So we just ignore the cases that say Starts with okay, what we can do we can just convert it into lowercase dot Starts with Student index Dot name So we can just go with the name. So we are facing some problem here We are not getting name because the student is dynamic So let me quickly go here and mention that this student's student This is students is basically a list of student Okay, so that we can Easily get Suggestions Let's compare for the name So if It is matching With enter text we can simply return this Okay Otherwise we can simply return a empty sized box So that nothing should be displayed. So let's add one const here Okay, so this one is for text If something is entered this one is whatever we were getting by default So you can just remove this and you can convert it into arrow as well arrow function Let's do it back because we are not adding any Logic over here. So here we just convert it into normal Function so that we can add the logic and understand everything. So let's try to check if it works So let's search for go here and type for k No, so it is basically Doing some problem here because we are typing in lowercase So what we can do we can just cut this and Copy this and just add it with this Here So in this scenario, so everything is being converted to lowercase Whether this name or whatever user is So let me just Try this So if this student Let me go ahead this name convert to lowercase starts with search text And it should display it Yeah, so Okay, so let's try with something else. Let's say e So now here is the problem if I will go with uppercase then it will not work in that scenario you need to just convert this as well To lowercase save this So let's go with the k. It's working. Let's try with the e. It's working. Let's try the uppercase e again It is working Okay, so that was the issue and basically it is case sensitive So so that's all for this video if you have doubt Let me know in the comment section. I will just clear this and This is how we can do this So you can also clear that search text on the top of this so that every record should be displayed So that's all for this video. So what problems we are facing. We can just quickly solve these as well So let's add a const here. I think we were missing so save this so here Const save this just tap on this So add constate So we just converted that stateless widget to stateful And we just added a const. That's why it is giving warning So that's all for this video if you have any doubt, do comment in the comment section. Thank you Thank you


Hello everyone, welcome to the class of business forecasting. In the previous session, we discussed exponential smoothing model. Today, we will discuss trend projection and hold model. Hold model is extension of exponential smoothing model. So, if you look at the you know overall syllabus here, we have already entered into different type of time series methods and last couple of sessions, we have covered the basic name method of time series. We have discussed the different type of moving average methods and also the exponential series methods that the first on the simple exponential smoothing model. Today, we will extend the exponential smoothing model and we will enter into the trend analysis and in order to address the trend analysis, which model is most suitable that is called hold model. We will study that hold model today with illustration as well. So, let us first discuss about the trend projections. We all know in the session of components of time series, we discussed there are major four components. One is the trend and the seasonality and irregularity or say randomness and say cyclical. So, in that session, we discussed detail about trend right. If the data, the historical data has a trend, then how to you know address this issue or first you have to understand the behavior of the data and in which whether there is a trend or there is a downtrend, that understanding of the historical data, the past behavior of the data, you need to understand. Suppose you realize the data after drawing the graph or analyzing the behavior of the data, that there is a trend in the underlying data. So, in that case, you have to make a forecast according to the trend of the data, pattern of the data. So, there are many methods called you know say regression analysis or say trend line projections using different type of extensive time series methods. So, here you can see a sample illustration. Suppose you all know right, if you have a two variable data say independent variable x and the dependent variable y and then you can draw a trend line or say basic regression y equals to mx plus c. Here, I have written y equals to a plus bx and you can see the trend line here. So, this is the trend line right and look at the data pattern. So, this is data or nothing but the scattered data and if you want to find a relationship between that data, you will realize that the data is a uptrend. So, you can draw a line y equals to a plus bx or y equals to mx plus c. Effectively, you have considered a linear trend here using least square line, but if you see the behavior of the data, it might follow it might follow a uptrend. So, therefore, you need to fit a trend line or say regression line say to capture the pattern of the data. This is what the simple trend analysis. You have done it in couple of other sessions also. Even we have the regression analysis session where different type of extension of regression analysis and there also we will discuss detail of trend analysis. So, what are the major components just for your quick recap? What are the major components of a trend line or trend projections? You know you have to calculate the intercept and the slope and using that you can calculate the y equals to mx plus c y equals to a plus bx. So, this is what the basic trend line projections and today itself I will show you through say excel illustration how this can be used for trend projection. Now, the question is that suppose data has a trend say uptrend or downtrend. So, in that case in which situation this trend analysis or trend line can be captured or can be integrated to a time series data model. There are many models which can be used. There is no specific utilization or you know aspects of trend analysis or say trend projections. It is an integral part of different type of models to capture the trend of the data. Look at the figure here. It is just uptrend right. It can be seasonality also with uptrend. So, this type of data you have to make projection also. So, there will be different type of you know pattern of the data which captures uptrend or downtrend movement. Here the most popular is the linear regression where you have a dependent variable and independent variable and you can find the like causal relationship or you can say how the independent variable is explaining the dependent variable and can create a regression line which I have shown you just in the previous slide. There is another method called decomposition method which actually you know takes care of the seasonally and trend. Look at the figure, the second figure that I have drawn. So, there is uptrend and there is a seasonality. In order to address that you can use the decomposition method. We will discuss detail of decomposition method in a separate session. There is another logic called Arima. So, in Arima also you use trend line analysis. It is effectively say auto regression analysis. So, there also we use the trend line or the trend projections through Arima model. So, everywhere you are using it and look at the main point that of today's discussion that is called in exponential smoothing also you know when you enter into the whole model which we are going to discuss today. You will realize that there is a trend analysis or you can see that if there is uptrend in the data in the basic model where exponential smoothing you have used and you failed to get a base prediction because exponential smoothing simple exponential smoothing cannot capture the trend part. So, therefore, you need to use the hold model or hold exponential smoothing for trend analysis. There is another method which is extension of exponential smoothing as well as the hold model which is called the hold winter method where you take the seasonality and trend together which is alternative to decomposition method. We will discuss all these one by one. So, let us today discuss about the trend analysis through hold model. Just now I mentioned that hold model is extension of exponential smoothing model. If you think about the moving average concept that we have discussed in the in one of the session, there we talked the data to some extent steady and we are taking the trend we are capturing the trend where to some extent data you can average the data and average data are been you know taken as a forecasting value or the future value and that we are dragging that we are carrying forward as a movement of the data through basic moving average concept. And when it comes to the simple exponential smoothing there similar data similar concept just we do not take the fix combination of the you know range of the data as a moving average. Here in every average process every iteration we consider all the old data we do not do not drop anything here we always consider all the previous data and you drag the smoothing values and that weightage smoothing constant need to be calculated need to be optimized which we have done in the last session just I am giving a recap of that and then using the basic data or stationary data or steady data you can make a use of simple exponential smoothing model and make a forecast. But remember that in both the cases whether it is a moving average model or whether it is a simple exponential smoothing model we did not consider the trend part because trend was not present over there in case trend present over there and if you consider the simple exponential smoothing model for that data you will not get a good forecast there will be huge error because trend part cannot be captured through exponential smoothing model to avoid that drawback of exponential smoothing model hold has come forward or hold has developed model which is called hold exponential smoothing model where he capture the trend part. So, here you know he has taken the two base component one is the label another is the trend if you remember the exponential smoothing model it was like say you know y t plus 1 say hat equals to y t actual alpha of this plus 1 minus alpha alpha is the smoothing constant the weighted average actually of y t hat say. So, this is the model in exponential smoothing we discussed right this y t you can expand hat you can expand and you can add all the time series data and you can get a exponential smoothing model. We have discussed that hold has played with this part he has extended this exponential smoothing model and he has played with this part and he has put this into two component one is the label another is the to some extent you know trend say trend. So, he has developed these two component put together which will be replaced you know in place of y t hat and he has dragged that process let us see how it works. So, in that case since he has taken two information two new component one is the label value and another is the you know trend value. So, one more smoothing component will come that is called beta alpha we discussed in the exponential smoothing model that is the smoothing component or the you know that we optimize initially specify and then through optimization process we optimize that I have shown you in excel illustration the best alpha you will get it for the data to the initial period and rest you can distribute to the all the older period. Now, here same alpha will remain there here like as a input data for the label value base value, but since you are capturing one more component you are adding one more component in hold model that is called trend part that is called the trend part. So, we will add one more parameter called beta which will be a smoothing component for trend. So, these two parameter now we will optimize once the structure or the algorithm or the flow is ready the model is ready we will use we will optimize alpha and beta together. One more thing here sometimes people do not call this hold model as a you know simple extension of exponential smoothing model people sometimes called is a double exponential smoothing model why it is a double exponential smoothing model because you know here in basic exponential smoothing model you have only one you know exponential series right one data sets you are taking and you are calculating the forecast by taking combination of this approach right and you are expanding this in terms of alpha or say you know you are smoothing out the data and you are taking a combination of that through the smoothing constant alpha. So, one exponential series are there, but now here you are doing one more exponential smoothing that is called the trend part also. So, level part also you are doing one exponential smoothing and trend part also you are doing and we are capturing both and we are taking some of them and we are making a forecast for the future. So, therefore, we call it as a sometimes as a alternative to hold method as a double exponential smoothing models. Let us see how hold model work. So, as I mentioned it required actually it depends on the selection of the smoothing parameter alpha and beta. So, that parameter will optimize no worry we can see that parameters throw excel solver like the way we have optimized the alpha for exponential smoothing simple exponential smoothing model similarly here will optimize alpha and beta for hold model also through excel I will show you that. Now remember the range of alpha like same similar like exponential simple exponential smoothing model the range of alpha beta will try between 0 to 1 and you have initially you can give any value and you can optimize it later. And once you optimize it and you found the best alpha beta you can use that using these two equations you can get the final forecast for the forthcoming period. So, these are the you know ingredients you require. So, level at time period t initially you need to assign some level say l 0 you can say initial value. Initial value how to calculate the initial value that also I will show you say you know maybe initial couple of period average you can consider as the level value or just immediate value the first period you can consider as a initial guess to start the iteration. Similarly here also you have to start with the initial level and then get the iteration or the effect of hold model and then the trend level also the initial value of trend. So, for that also you can take the gap between the data set and that you can consider as the trend or if you do not understand that or if you do not think that no I will not take the gap I will take the 0 as the initial trend no doubt you can take that also. So, all options are open with you I will show you through illustration and excel also. So, once you get the initial value of level and trend say l 0 and say you know t 0 initial value if you get it through your assumptions then your model iteration will start and then you can drag the iterations automatically the new level and trend will be calculated automatically and your total sum will be added one by one and you will get the forecast for the future period. So, this way you know you may carry forward your forecast and you may get the trend projections through hold model. Now this two parameter are required alpha and beta for calculating the level value and trend value in every iteration and actual forecast will be coming as a sum of them and these are the general notation for forecast calculations in the iteration. Let us see how the model work here. So, I will illustrate this model now here let us recall the basic exponential smoothing model which we discussed in the previous it will be easier for us to understand.  So, weighted combination of the actual and forecast of the previous period we discussed this way. For example, say suppose you are at say y 5. So, then y 5 equals to alpha into y 4 plus 1 minus alpha of y 4 forecast that immediately you got you drag it you will get y 6 y 7. So, this way you will get the forecast by changing the actual data of previous period and the forecast period and you will get the exponential smoothing model the simple exponential smoothing model. Now this concepts will be using here in a different manner. Now let us see this basic model let us keep the general formula of exponential smoothing basic simple exponential smoothing and let us see what changes we have done here. Actually if you see this part simple this part forecast part we are replacing with this level and trend with this level and trend look at this look at same the rest all are same alpha of y t plus 1 minus alpha is as it is only for level calculation then the trend part we will discuss. So, you can see actual value say weighted combination say 50% of actual plus 50% of say the forecast. So, that forecast we are replacing with the initial guess of level and trend.  Now once you get it like the way here I have told you. So, if you get it that will give you the support for initial level calculations. So, that level you calculate as L t and then once you get it you calculate your trend look at the trend now trend part is nothing but here also it is a weighted combination say 50% say beta say 50% or so, 40% 50% of the level gap the stairs gap and the immediate level that you have calculated that and the previous level that you have calculated that are the stairs to two stairs value that gap plus the previous trend you had in the previous period that 50% of that. So, this combination this weighted combination say 50% beta say 0.5 50% of the level gap plus 50% of the previous trend that weighted combination is your new trend. Once you get the level and trend you add that you will get the forecast. Let us see one example suppose here suppose you calculate say for example say Y5 suppose.  So, this is what your forecast now what will be your L4? L4 will be L4 will be alpha into Y say 4 plus 1 minus alpha of rather than alpha 4 forecast we are writing you know L3 plus T3. So, this combination is nothing but your Y4 forecast that value into corresponding weightage plus the actual value of fourth period into the corresponding weightage. So, this way you calculate the L4. So, this L4 you will use to calculate your T4 using this formula. So, this way what will be the calculation for T4? So, T4 formula calculations will be say you know beta into level gap say L4 minus L3 plus 1 minus beta into you know previous period weight. So, this combination is your forecast for period as a trend forecast for that particular intermediate period we call it is intermediate why I will tell you through excel. So, this way you can calculate your forecast. So, now for example say one more example I can tell you suppose here you know you want to calculate say you want to calculate your say L2 because you will start from there right. So, suppose L2.  Now, what was your L1?  So, this is what the forecast for you know hold model by adding two component level value and trend value. Let us see this through a illustrations you will get a better picture actually. So, here you see the sample data look at the data look at this data you have a uptrend right. So, it is clear suppose you have analyzed in excel and graph and after processing of the data you realize the data has a trend. Now, that trend you have to make a forecast for the future as per the trend line now. So, how we will calculate the trend line separately through hold model and you can say add that with the level value. Remember again in exponential smoothing model you do not have the trend part it is simple forecast weighted combination of actual plus forecasted value and you are dragging at that value that is the simple exponential smoothing model. But here you are segregating the data the forecasted into two component one is the level as a trend and then you are adding them together again then you are adding them and you are getting a forecast for the forthcoming period.  So, how we have calculated say suppose here we have assumed that initial period was 11. So, that we have taken as the forecast right and say gap between initial period and previous period current current period suppose the gap you have written here is a trend value you might say here it should be the one why if you consider 11 then to suppose here I am as for your information suppose it could be 10 or 11 whatever whatever. So, that gap you can consider or say suppose you had another period say previous period suppose some other value say you know say 8 something. So, you have taken a gap between this 8 and 11 and then 11 and 12 and then suppose take that average of that gap suppose here you will get say 3 and here you will get 1. So, take the average of that as the trend whatever as a 2. So, whatever initial value you can assume not a matter couple of initial period you can consider and then the average you can consider as the initial level also or the same period as it is you can consider as the initial level to start with and the trend also you can consider 0 also if you are not interested take the average of couple of previous periods gap and that as the trend what you can consider the 0 as the initial trend also. After certain time period you will see that the system the iteration will capture the actual trend of the data not a matter. So, these are the initial as you know assumptions to start with the level and trend. So, once you get the level and trend what happens you know you add these 2 we will get the forecast for the next period. So, for L1 you got the forecast with level plus trend. So, initial forecast we found it now look at level plus trend right we got the error you can write down error could be say you know 12 minus 13 equals to 1 we are not discussing the error part here in excel we will discuss because that part we have already discussed in measure of accuracy session. So, now let us focus about only the calculation of hold model now. So, now you found the forecast for the second say first period say with initial value. So, L0 and T0 worked as a intermediate level and trend to start with your initial level and trend to start with your hold model. So, you got the for now actual hold model will start calculation will start now. How we got the forecast intermediate level value for you know for this particular first period. So, how to calculate the forecast for the next period? So, let us say how we have calculated here. Suppose here you have the actual value say actual value of first period how much it is 12 it is 12 look at here it is actual value 12 plus say 50 say 20 percent we have taken alpha for this particular data sense we have taken alpha 0.2 and beta 0.4 initially we will optimize this in excel later. Now, suppose alpha 0.2 20 percent of actual 12 plus 1 minus 0.2 say 80 percent of the level and trend initially you already calculated level and trend what is 11 plus 2. So, that you can take you will get the forecast for level intermediate level for that period which will be used for second period actually which will be used look at here T plus 1 equals to L2 a LT plus in a trend. So, that means, if you calculate Y2 hat forecast it is nothing but L1 plus T1 remember this this L1 and T1 are the intermediate level and trend. So, that we are calculating right. So, here you see. So, this 12.2 I have I think in the next slide I have written here look at this 12.2 is the you know intermediate level calculations hold it. Now, the trend also you have to calculate then only this T1 also you have to calculate then only you will get the forecast for you know by adding these two you will get the forecast for the second period. So, let us see how we calculate the trend path now. Now, what happens this new intermediate level you found which is nothing but your L1 and L0 you have assumed it. So, take the gap. So, this gap is nothing but the one component of your trend say 40 percent of that because beta you have assumed 0.4 and 60 percent of the previous trend. So, weighted combination you are taking every time. So, that is nothing but forecast for or intermediate value of trend or say forecast of trend. So, this you got as 1.92 add these two you will get the forecast. So, you look at I have kept this in the previous row. So, that you may get the actual forecast and you may get the error here. So, what will be the next forecast you add these two you will get the forecast value for next period as 14.17. So, it is nothing but the forecast for the second period what is that it is nothing but actually why 2 had actually clear. So, now, if you get the difference between this and this you will get the error now for this particular period right. And then if you drag the formula you will get the forecast for the next period. Let me show you one more calculations of the level here. Look at here this we have calculated the sum of level plus trend actual forecast we found now. Now, for one more iteration for your information I am calculating one more level to get a better insight or clarity because first time you are understanding this. So, here you see. So, how I have calculated next trend now this is actually L 0 this is L 1 this is L 2. So, this L 2 and T 2 if you calculate you will get actually you know y 3 you will get the forecast of next y 3 hat sorry y 3 hat. So, how we will get this 15.12 look at what is your you know look at 50 percent say 20 percent of the actual value of that period actual value of that period plus say 80 percent of the previous period level and trend what we found previous period level and trend you found as you know 12.8 and 1.92 which is nothing, but 14.72 you take the 50 80 percent of that you will get the new level intermediate level which is nothing, but 15.15 clear now. So, this is what the intermediate level. So, once you get this level you will get one more using these value and the previous trend previous level you will get the gap and the previous trend you already have take the weighted combination with beta you will get the forecast for trend. So, these two once you get you added you will get the forecast for the next period. So, this way you can drag actually look at here you will get the similar calculations I have shown you also trend calculations you are now you all intermediate level you found. So, take the gap between these two and the corresponding previous period trend you already had take the weighted combination and you get the forecast for the intermediate period of trend and that trend which is what is this trend this is actually T 0 this is T 1 and this is T 2 you found it now. Now, you got say you know here L 2 you found here it was L 1 it was L 0. So, L 2 and T 2 you got you add it you will find the forecast for next period what is the forecast forecast is 17.8 final forecast for that period you drag this process drag all you will get the forecast for the 10th period here using this calculation and this calculations level 9 and level 10 9 as intermediate. So, you will get the forecast for the 10th period here I have done it look at here. So, you find the forecast this is what you know intermediate level and intermediate trend through the iteration and here you will find the forecast for the next period which is nothing but the sum of them and you have to write in the next row. So, that you know actual data minus forecast you can make a difference and you get the you know error part or residual part. So, now you get the forecast using hold model by calculating two component or two series therefore, we call it is a double expansion smoothing model one is the level calculation level series another the trend series both series you are calculating every iteration and you are adding them you are adding them you are getting the forecast you are adding them you are getting the forecast right. So, this way you are getting the final forecast through hold model this actually trend capture the trend look at the data now forecast. So, 13 14.7 to 17 point it is increasing right 20, 22, 24, 26, 29, 31, 35. So, effectively it is increasing despite data might have little bit of here and there, but the hold model actually making a forecast with the trend line analysis. So, this is what the advantage of hold model who takes care the trend part and the trend analysis aspects also. Now, the corresponding error you can calculate actual minus forecast and the corresponding MAD by taking the absolute value of the error and the average of them or you can take the square of the value of a all error and then take the sum and then the average of it will get the mean square error and if you take RMS square root you will get the RMS. This we have already discussed I will show you in excel. So, this is what the hold model you want to see the who capture the trend the graph look at the graph. See how accurately it is actually making the forecast as per the pattern of the data, but if you would have used explicit smoothing model your forecast would have like this your forecast would have like. So, here we could have get more error over here. So, this is what the advantage of hold model.  Here you see the excel model if you look at here. So, initial value we have assumed 11 and 2 as per the data I have shown in the property. So, same data we have taken and look at the first and this is the forecast for initial period right by adding L 0 and trend 0. Now, you calculate L 1 what how we will calculate L 1? L 1 is nothing, but say 20 percent alpha 20 we have kept here alpha 20, 20 percent of the previous value plus say 80 percent of the previous level plus trend or you can say the previous forecast value whatever. So, take the weighted combination you get the forecast here. Now, if you drag it if you drag this you will get the forecast of level. Now, trend, trend is nothing, but this level initially for say for this trend how you calculate 1.92 the gap between this level value look at my mouse the gap between these two level value say 40 percent weightage of that plus 60 percent of the previous trend. So, this is your forecast for the trend.  Now, once you get the last period level and trend we can get the forecast for 10th period or the forthcoming period actual forecast what is that say 35.16 with corresponding NEC and RNEC. Now, the question here is that whether this alpha and beta are the best or not? We have discussed that this is the initial assumption right and we have to optimize the best alpha whoever whatever the initial value you start that is not a matter based on the assumption the data and the corresponding initial guess you can start with if you have a large amount of data initial level is not a much matter, but you have to put a reasonable value if you are confused. So, you can take initial level as a trend value as 0 and level value as it is suppose here you had 11 actual value you can take as it is not a matter after that also you will get similar forecast. So, initial level and trend is not a matter or couple of periods as I mentioned you can take the average of couple of periods as the initial level average of the gaps of couple of periods can be trend or the initial trend can be 0. So, then you can drag the model of hold model. So, it is you are adding two series therefore, we are getting the trend separately along with level base and you are adding them you are making a forecast right. Now, the question here is that two point one is the how to find the alpha and beta best alpha and beta for everybody all participants if you run it with initial guess of alpha beta at the end you will find the best combination of alpha beta I will show you. Second point once that is done this trend you will find so effectively once the optimum value of alpha beta are found you will get to know not only for you will get advantage of not only getting a forecast for the next period say 10th period even for you know say period 11 also you can make a forecast here by taking this trend value. For example, suppose you have a say level value is this much and trend is this much. So, for next period your forecast will be say 32.48 plus 2 into here you have added 1 right 1 into level 2 into 2.68 say. So, you will get the forecast for 11th period also. So, it is so accurate the trend has been captured so accurately that you may get forecast for initial couple of period also. This is for the advantage of you know hold model where once you capture the actual trend path for the last period by multiplying 2 times 3 times etcetera couple of initial forthcoming period also you can make a forecast and you can make your business plan. It is not like that you cannot take another 12 months etcetera or 12 periods or say so many periods that is not acceptable, but initial couple of 2, 3 periods 4 periods you can actually you know use this trend path and you can make a forecast. Therefore, sometimes people call it as this final forecast of hold model as y t plus 1 forecast is nothing, but level plus m into trend. So, this m is nothing, but the additional period. So, if m is 1 then only for 10th period you are making forecast. If m is 2 you are making 11th period forecast right. If m is 3 you are making 12th period forecast. So, couple of additional period forecast also you are getting or you are making prediction by calculating the final trend and the level. You know you do not have to wait for the 11th period actual data 12th period actual data then you make a forecast of hold model that up to whatever the data you have using that you can make a forecast for the forthcoming also. This is for the strength of the hold model. Now, let us go to finalizing of alpha and beta or getting the optimum value of alpha and beta. So, what we will do now? Let me erase this part now. We will finalize the alpha beta now. So, here if you see go to data and go to solver as in the previous session I have discussed which value you want to minimize the RMSC right the error you want to minimize. So, select the RMSC. So, suppose here I have kept it in F18 cell. So, I have F17 cell. So, I have kept here as a base value as a subjective value F17. So, if you keep in other cell calculate the RMSC value or error value or MAD value or MAP value you can select that also not a matter. So, it is a minimization problem it is not a maximization you have to minimize the error. So, do not select the max select the minimization. What is your guess cell which value you have to finalize alpha beta right you can write alpha, beta here this JA3 and JA4 cell. So, rather than writing 1 by 1 since I have kept both together in the same place go and select both together 1 by 1 you can select also by taking comma by giving comma or you can drag both together because both we have kept in the same column. Now, the variables we have been selected now in this particular changing variable cell now you have to put the conditions right restriction like optimization you have been. So, what are the restrictions the range of alpha and beta cannot be more than 1 it cannot be less than 0. So, this range you have to put and look at here I have kept here and variables are non negative that you have to mention also. So, I can you know here how will you add this conditions here I can delete this and I can show you again suppose I will delete all this and I will add it again from the scratch. So, add the conditions. So, these two variables initial guess should be less equals to 1 you add and these two variable should be greater equals to 0 right. So, you put them done you have put the conditions here and also make sure that it is a non-linear problem because RMSE is a square root. So, it is non-linear you do not select the simplex LP. So, non-linear solve it you got the best combination of alpha beta for these data sets what is alpha 10 percent beta 100 percent.  So, this is what the forecast throw hold model now if you see suppose for downtrain uptrend data we found suppose I have changed the data look at the downtrend pattern of the data have been captured now same data kept in a in a reverse manner now suppose downtrend is the data the data pattern is in downtrend now will hold model work here also let us see what could be the forecast suppose here initial guess I have assumed 37 and trained as a 2 initially and I have run the same model same calculations let us say initial alpha beta have kept 0.2.4 and I will run the model go to data go to solver and same as it is I have kept the formula just solve it look at change changes in the alpha and beta and the corresponding RMSE look at the optimum alpha beta is 60 percent and 61 percent best whatever initial value you skip not a matter they will take care the best optimization value of alpha beta or best combination of alpha and beta the optimization solver will provide you the best in detail I have discussed in the measure of accuracy session or you know alpha selection in moving average method sorry exponentials moving average method as well as the exponential smoothing model. So, here also we are exploding the same logic and you got the RMSE and the forecast look at the forecast for 10 period now 10.59 and using this trend you can make the forecast for the next period also suppose 11 period forecast you want to make what could be the 11 period forecast using hold model you do not have to wait for the actual data of 10 period. So, 13 plus 2 into now m is 2 now 2 into the trend this trend is very strong now. So, you can get the forecast for 11 period also couple of period not all period you cannot make forecast for the so many previous forthcoming period succeeding periods initial couple of period forecast also you can make using this trend analysis like hold model. So, this is the hold model and the advantage of hold model is that it takes care of both the you know uptrend and non-trend data with a better accuracy of forecast and this model is more reliable as far as you know trend data is concerned. Now, let us come back to today's session and one more part I have to discuss with you these examples particular remember the data this example we have discussed through exponential simple exponential smoothing model also and there we realize that this data has a downtrend data and exponential smoothing when you use exponential smoothing we found that that it ended up with 1210 as the forecast 1210 like name method as the forecast it did not capture that trend part right and we stopped there with exponential smoothing model and concluded that exponential smoothing could not capture that trend part effectively. Now, we have run the same data using hold model and optimum alpha beta we found and look at the forecast 11.62 look at 11.62 is the forecast smoothing model ended up with 1210 it could not go down further because alpha cannot be more than one remember the discussion and here you are finding the forecast of 1162 which is much better as far as prediction is concerned to some extent is capture the trend of the data effectively look at the last next graph look at here this graph remember we have discussed detail in the simple exponential smoothing session. So, look at with alpha 0.2 forecast was here how much 1320 around look at 1324 I think if I remember something the forecast was like this and when you increase the alpha value to have 20 something and then when you ask the excel to find the best alpha it ended up alpha equals to 1 and the forecast was exactly 1210 remember. So, it could not capture the trend effectively because there is a limitation of exponential smoothing model and exponential smoothing model is very suitable very much suitable for steady data stationary data, but when it does not stationary it comes into the picture or trend come into the picture you select the hold model and look at the forecast of hold model with the best alpha beta combination it is giving a very accurate forecast this is what hold model and if you go back to the excel and you see here look at the excel look at the same data initially alpha have kept 0.2 0.4 and forecast is at 1253, but once you run it through hold model for the same data you will get a forecast of 1162 look at this with the best RMSE and the combination of alpha is 0.65 and 65 percent beta is 1 and this is what the advantage of hold model the same problem we have discussed in exponential smoothing also simple exponential smoothing and now through hold model and here is the you know outcome the competitive analysis between hold model and simple exponential smoothing model and why people extend the hold use the hold model when the data has you know or extend the simple exponential smoothing model with trend data and use hold model here is the you know illustration. I believe you understood the difference between simple simple exponential smoothing model and hold model and in which case you should use exponential smoothing model and in which case you should extend the exponential smoothing model and use the hold model that is clear. So, today with that let us conclude the session of trend analysis and hold model. In the next session, we will extend this hold concept let me come back to the that particular slide where we started today here. So, if you remember in the beginning of today's session we talked about hold exponential smoothing model to discuss today. In the next class we will extend the hold exponential smoothing model to hold to inter exponential smoothing model or inters hold exponential smoothing model which takes care of seasonality and trend together. So, this combination only trend part we have discussed today. If the seasonality is also involved in the data in that case you need to use the inters hold model and this we will discuss in the next session. Thank you.