Thank you, Sam. Welcome. I've made a number of talks since the 11th of March 2011, following the disasters, and two of those talks I've started in the same way. If you've heard me in the past, please indulge me for using this refrain yet again. Monty Dixon and I went to the same high school. Monty Dixon, Monty's older brothers were two of my best friends. Monty, like me, studied Japanese in his high school year, university, and then after studying, he went back to Japan to teach. On the 11th of March, Monty was stationed as a jet teacher at an elementary school in Minami, Samuriku. After the earthquake and the warning bells went, he and the other teachers removed the students to the evacuation point, and then he went, per instructions, to the fifth floor of the municipal building in Minami, Samuriku. You'll know that the tsunami came soon thereafter and reached the sixth floor. Monty's body was found two weeks later, four kilometers from the site. Monty was 27. I hope that's an age that resonates with some of you. 23,000 people died on the 11th of March. That kind of devastation is one that's hard to get our heads around. And yet, we must. Japan is too big, too important, and too much humanity to only be defined by the disaster. As we've seen in the past, Japan is a country that very much can be defined by the rebuilding, by the resilience, and by the enthusiasm that comes with the living culture. Today, we're going to make a stab at that. Shortly, I think we're about 150 days, 130 days after. So we're still in early times, but we're going to, while recognizing and respecting those 23,000 people who have lost their lives, think about going forward and thinking about how Japan recovers. Japan is very important to Australia. Oftentimes, that's forgotten nowadays. Japan remains the third largest economy in the world. Japan remains the second largest trading partner of Australia. Japan is Australia's key partner in a Pacific security region, and the people-to-people links between Japan and Australia are perhaps only surpassed if surpassed by New Zealand. For all of those reasons, it should be keen to all policymakers as they look forward to how this relationship in this country will go forward. I actually had a paper I wanted to present, but we have so many fantastic speakers. I'm going to put that in my back pocket, and we're going to direct you to the East Asia Forum instead, where I've written a couple of articles that are up there. So rather than take my time to make the arguments again, I hope you visit that site. Instead, I want to, what we'll do is keep each speaker to about 10 minutes. We have a wealth, pun intended, of economists today, but they're all going to be speaking a bit more broadly than just the economy. I'll introduce them in order as they go through, and I will be cutting them off very sharply because of the limited amount of time. Our first speaker, though, is Professor Cissorah Jaya Syria. Cissorah used to be the head of the Asian Economic Center at University of Melbourne, but since 2008 has been at the trove. Someone who is well in this area, we're really lucky to tempt him up from the cold Melbourne to spend some time with us here in the wonderful camera winter day that it is. Cissorah. Thanks very much. It's a real pleasure for me to be invited out here. Meet such a vibrant group of people from all over the world. And then we talk about one of the biggest natural disasters that we have seen in recent history. I have a few slides that I'll try and get through quickly just in order to organize my ideas. I guess all of you are familiar with what happened in Japan, March 11th, in a huge earthquake followed by a tsunami, a bit like what happened in 2004, December in Asia. And the tsunami really was the most important source of destruction. There are massive numbers that if you compare that with what happened in Japan itself in 1995, there was a major earthquake in the city of Kobe, but this was what happened in Kobe quite substantially across all dimensions. And very importantly, unlike in most cases, it didn't end with the earthquake and the tsunami because it affected a major nuclear power generating plant at Fukushima Daiichi. And this has created problems which continue until today. I don't know how many economists, but I will stick to the economics, but one thing I want to stress here is the human cost, the human tragedy of this. You can't quantify, you can't put numbers on that. Also, the strength and resilience shown by the Japanese community in the face of the disaster, both those people who are directly affected and in the neighborhoods, it's amazing again. If you compare the scenes of what happened in Katrina during the U.S. disaster some years ago, when there was rioting, looting, shootings, and then you compare how the Japanese people stayed in queues all the time patiently to get their little passions of water and food, use of complete contrast, amazing sense of community strength, resilience, a sense of social responsibility. And that's the social capital of Japan that it will be using, hopefully, to build on. The magnitude of this disaster in economic terms is really massive. I wouldn't, because of the time constraint, don't want to dwell on it. But this is, if you just look at what happened directly in the affected areas, it's much bigger than what happened in COVID-1995. But if you take the total cost, that is, the effect directly affected areas plus the impact on the other areas because of the economic linkages between this region and other regions, then the total cost, different estimates of it, but could be as much as 6% of GDP, very large economic cost. And this is one of the natural disasters which has had a real global impact because it is the largest economy in the world. It plays a major role in currency markets, stock markets, all of this, and in international trade. So across many dimensions, there was a global impact. Even though in terms of human deaths and so on, the 2004 Asian tsunami was considerably bigger, the economic impact on the global scene was much bigger in the case of what happened in March in Japan. Some of my colleagues on the panel will be speaking more directly and with more detail on some of these aspects including the impact on international trade. But I just want to say this is, you know, just to keep a big picture perspective, there's a huge impact both in Japan itself and globally. You know, in Japan, the response was very quick. You know, people actually, in Japan itself, if you go there now, a lot of people criticize what the government has done or hasn't done and so on, but the reality is compared to other natural disasters. The response in Japan was amazingly good. Most critical infrastructure was brought back into operation very soon after, including the bullet trains, the basic road network, etc. But huge numbers of people had to be evacuated and that is because of the radiation issue. What is happening now, because I might not get enough time to get to the end of my presentation, what is happening now is that there's a lot of debates about how to finance reconstruction, how to move ahead with issues such as nuclear energy, and you know, what's the way forward for the Japanese community and there are big debates happening in Japan at the moment. And to some extent, there's a degree of policy deadlock and even paralysis at some levels, which is part of the tragedy, I guess. Just to get one thing clear, there's a misconception spread partly through all kinds of commentators in the media and so on that Japan is a very highly indebted country and that it has huge problems financing the reconstruction necessary. That's a myth. Japan is not an indebted country. Japan has a government which is indebt to its own citizens. It has borrowed from its own citizens, but it is not a poor country. It's one of the most affluent countries in the world and even after 20 years of almost zero economic growth, it is a country with huge national savings. Government has a debt. The government has borrowed from its own people, but as a country, no. It's a net-sable country. It is one of the largest, it's the second largest stock of international savings, second only to China on a per capita basis, much bigger. Japanese government debt is very high, that's true, but if you look at net debt as opposed to gross debt, gross debt is what most people focus on. Again, it's large, but not absolutely massive. There's no real problem finding the money to finance reconstruction. The debates are about what are the mechanisms through which it should be financed, how should they undertake reconstruction, should people go back to the areas, should nuclear power be restored, what's the way to go. What is dominating debate at the moment is the whole issue of nuclear power. Japan is highly dependent on nuclear power, around 30% of all electricity generated comes from nuclear. And until last year, until this disaster, Japan was really looking forward to going even more nuclear. This is the strategic energy plan of Japan. They were planning to get to 50% nuclear by 2030. And now we have got a huge crisis. We find that safety measures were inadequate. There have been corrupt practices, attempts at cover-up, regulatory failure, and the government and the nuclear power industry have been very cozy, and this has really created a lot of issues. At the moment, the nuclear power issue dominates. The government itself is weak politically. It's a coalition, and the majority party in power itself is split into different factions. Public confidence in politicians has become very low, partly because of the nuclear thing, but it has been growing for a while, for other reasons as well. And there are issues about government spending. Government needs to spend, but they have a huge amount of weight to spending in the past, including bridges to nowhere. They were building bridges to go nowhere. So long-term recovery in Japan, 20 years of economic stagnation, so far two lost decades. And what is really important in Japan is to get people to spend. But what this disaster has done is it has shaken confidence further, consumer confidence is down, so spending is down, and people are worried about government spending, that this might also be wasteful and might not get you anywhere. So what is happening is that we are getting to a situation where, well beyond the actual disaster and reconstruction, the broader issue of Japanese economic recovery may be delayed even further. Thank you. Thank you, Chair. As he said, I was a student on the first year of this A&E, as I said, quick study. Back then, there were academics running through this program, which you can imagine in the program. But now I see this year's students running smoothly, so it's good for them. Especially, you know, when I came this morning, I saw in the building, you know, can the airport pick us up, you know, pick us up. I'm sure you learn much more in this program. So what I'm going to talk about today is the impact of what they call in Japan's March 11th as quick on Japan's trade and foreign investment. So Japanese firms investing to oversee. This is in line with what I do in my research project. So in this presentation, I just sort of divide into, you know, sort of immediate impact or short run impact on trade and investment on Japan, and they break up into sort of medium or long-term perspective on impact on trade and FDI for Japan. And just for the smaller, breaking up the discussion group, I just want to impose one question at the end. So what is the immediate impact on international trade on Japan? As you saw, some of the newspaper news, you know, is in a hugely, especially generally manufacturing hugely effective. Not only Japanese manufacturing itself affected globally, you see some story news telling, you know, US because Japanese supplier of the parts and components was a short supply of parts from Japan, the automobile production in US, Europe, and it has to be stopped for some time. So Japan applied quite a big role as an exporter of the providing parts and components of the motor vehicle, electronics and computers, maybe some parts of coming from Japan. So what happened after this, you know, earthquake and this whole production inside Japan came to hold for a couple of weeks. Now, only this month, they started to resume food production of this, you know, big automobile maker, Toyota Nissan in Japan. So it has a huge impact on global manufacturing and its disruption because the shortage of supplying parts and components, key parts and components from Japan and this was hugely far, strongly far, not only Japan but regional economy as well.   It doesn't happen within our country but it's sort of whole production process spread around in a different country within the region. I give one example. Do you know a company called Boeing's? Yes. Where are you from? From Australia. U.S.? And do you know what they produced? What's their manufacture? From Australia. Airplane? Yeah. And would you call that, you know, Boeing's airplane is made in U.S.? No. But what do you call it? Where is it made from? What is it manufactured from? Japan. Japan. Actually, Bits and Bees come from all over the world. So this is sort of breakdown of the airplane, of the Boeing 787. Look, how many countries in the world is producing this one jet? U.S., Canada, Australia, Japan, Korea and some countries in Europe. So what we call, what we kind of call the barrier added. Most of the barrier added production coming from out of the U.S. They do assembling in Boeing in U.S. But several companies, several countries getting involved. Okay? So you see modern globalization while manufacturing production, it just, it just doesn't happen in one country, but just spread around, you know, many different countries. And Japan quite, apply quite significant role. So, for example, for this Boeing 787 Gymliner, Japanese company, they provide 35% of the barrier added going to this airplane. There's another example. For example, about one-fifth of the wire send conductor is produced by Japanese firm in Japan. And 40% of the electric component is produced also by Japanese firm. So some market analysts make a remark that Japan, if you go higher, higher up in the market share of the barrier chain, you see Japanese company. So what happened in the, so destruction of the manufacturing in northern part of Japan. Many world-class manufacturers, they couldn't produce car or Boeing because of, you know, shortage of supply from Japan. So that was imposing some problem for us. And the, what we can, so taking as an issue, what we can discuss about the future. So what is the impact on the medium-term, long-term business strategy for Japan and for Japanese company? So as you might have heard, Japanese firm, especially Toyota, inventing this, what is called, just-in-time logistics. So this production process, regional production, from parts and components produced in Japan, go to Malaysia, China, and bits and pieces, you know, get together, go to U.S., China Goods Assemble, as in ship, exported from China to U.S.  But just-in-time logistics has a problem itself and is quite sensitive to, you know, annexed supply shop. So now the discussion now is whether Japanese firm or Japanese company is going to be considering this just-in-time logistics. And the much more, you know, lingering question is the location Japanese company from northern part, or actually some happen from northern part to south of Japan, but there's a problem happening in Japan. And the few firms, so this is a question I want to ask to your audience, with disruption of the production process, you know, what's happening with encouraging more Japanese firm into going to, you know, move away from out of Japan. That's a question I want to ask. And so I'm quite optimistic about this, you know, following out of, you know, there's quite debated discussion in 1990, they might come back again. And there's some, you know, some people say, you know, confidence in Japan has a reliable supply of key parts and components has had quite shaken.  You know, definitely the firm is already going overseas. But I'm quite optimistic about this move away from, you know, move away from Japan and we can discuss and discuss. I have a longer paper and if anybody is interested, you can find it on the site that's on the screen now, Asia Rights. I'm going to reduce it in order to get into this in 10 minutes. This may be a little bit different from the other speakers. I'm going to be quite micro and I want to focus particularly on the Fukushima nuclear accident issue. Mainly because it's still happening and because I think there are really important things that should be being done right now in Japan and aren't being done and I'll come to those in a moment. So one of the important things is this is not something that happened on the 11th of March 2011. It's something that's still happening now. According to the relatively optimistic scenario that was put by the Fukushima nuclear plant operators, TEPCO, essentially the accident will go on happening until January next year. By January next year, they hope to have it under control and be able to move on to the next step which is moving towards decommissioning the reactors which is in itself an enormously long, difficult and expensive process. That if all goes well, it will be done by January next year but at the moment there is also a very dangerous risky process going on of keeping the reactors cool without causing nuclear water to flood out of the reactor system and that could break down and have been a numerous minor breakdowns already. Meanwhile, so far, nine workers at the Fukushima nuclear power plant dealing with the cleanup are known to have been exposed to over 250 million sieverts of radiation. I have learned about million sieverts in the last four months or so like most of my friends in Japan. That's a lot of radiation. That is about 12, more than 12 times the upper annual limit for nuclear workers in Germany. Of them, at least two have been exposed to doses more than 30 times the upper limit for nuclear workers. Now, in a disaster of this magnitude, the radiation of nine workers might not sound all that bad really but one of the alarming facts is that we know that these workers have been exposed to that level of radiation because their radiation levels have been properly monitored. As of mid-June, there were about 1,400 workers brought in to help with the cleanup as radiation levels hadn't been properly monitored so we don't know what level of radiation they've been exposed to. Even more surprisingly to me, there were or are at least 60 workers who were brought in to help with the cleanup and nobody can follow up their whole situation because nobody recorded their names and addresses properly. That reflects the fact that some of these people are recruited from the kind of day labour system in Japan, they are the latest in what are known as the nuclear gypsies in Japan. Eighty thousand people have been evacuated from the 20 kilometre danger zone around the Fukushima nuclear plant. Voluntary evacuations of those living in radiation hotspots further away from the plant are now going on and some people suggest that as many as 70,000 more people will need to be evacuated. The first detailed survey of radiation levels in Namiya-Machi which is one of the terms that scuttles the danger zone was carried out about three months after the accident and that was just because everybody was servicing everybody else for them to deal with. What it showed was something that we know about nuclear radiation. It doesn't spread out evenly from the centre, it kind of pools in hotspots. So some of the places really need to the plant don't have very high radiation levels. Some places quite a long way away do. This was Namiya-Machi kind of in happier times. This is a porgy which is part of Namiya-Machi and that's one of the hotspots. It has radiation levels which over a year would probably be about eight times the level that nuclear workers in Germany are allowed to be exposed to. And that's a problem if you're a child because radiation has much more serious effects on children. What does this mean for people living around the nuclear plant in Fukushima prefecture? It's mostly Fukushima prefecture, the eastern side that's affected. The answer to that question is nobody knows and that's really the thing that I find most troubling.  Plausible estimates range from a low of about 9,000 people to a high of about 90,000. You'll find estimates outside on both sides of the scale, but that's a fairly, you know, that's arranged by a lot of scientists. Now, of course, the amount of radiation released from the Fukushima plant is a lot less than Chernobyl. It's about 14%, 13%. So you could do a crude extrapolation from, say, the 9,000 figure and get a figure of possibly about 1,200 deaths from radiation in Japan over a long period, but of course you can't do that because nobody knows if the 9,000 figure is correct and you can't extrapolate directly to Japan because there are many differences between the two places. Of course, what we do know is that many people in Chernobyl suffered greatly from the process of evacuation, the social effects of the disaster, particularly older people, and that is going to be true in Fukushima. So, to put it in practical terms, if you live in a porgy or similar areas and you go to the experts and you say, what should I do?  Should I move my kids to another school? And of course I won't be able to sell my house because nobody's going to buy it. I might not be able to get another job. My kids may be shunned by their classmates in other parts of Japan because they're seen as being radioactive. If you ask the experts, the answer is, search us, we have no idea what this is going to do to your health. You've got to make the decision. Basically, that's the answer again. There are of course a whole lot of other issues. There's the issue of radioactivity, particularly radioactive cesium entering the food chain and that is affecting areas of Fukushima further away. There's also radioactive cesium, which has a half-life of 30 years, entering the sewage system over northeastern Japan. And that's kind of on top of the radiation that people absorb from the air around them. Now, the levels of radiation in places like Tokyo are much above that kind of radiation at the moment. But the food issue is significant, it's possibly. And certainly in the eastern Fukushima, the radiation levels are possibly quite significant. The evacuation zone around the Chernobyl nuclear plant was known after the accident in 1986 as zonavichugenia, which means the zone of alienation. And I think that's a remarkably provocative term. So I'm just going to go back one, even though it's time. It's time, but I just wanted to say one thing at the end. There are things that should be being done now around Fukushima plant, particularly, not just the Japanese government, but the World Health Community, the World Health Organization should be coming in and monitoring people's health and doing epidemiological studies of the effect of radiation, because that's the best way to help the people on the ground and to increase our scientific knowledge of the effect of radiation. That's not happening yet. The Japanese government's struggling with this, but it's a huge task.  And if I have to give you a question to discuss, I would like to ask the really basic question. As students in Australia, or maybe from somewhere else, if you come from somewhere else, are the things that you should be doing to help Japan, help people in Japan get back on track? Well, hello. I haven't had an opportunity yet to be involved very much with the program, because there are so many conferences going on across the campus that some of us are running between different ones. Although, I did get to see some of you at the world podium. Yeah, thanks. So, and because of running back and forth between conferences, I haven't put together a PowerPoint slide, but, you know, I'm an economist and mostly what economists do with PowerPoints so it's really...  So let me just throw out some ideas for you and then lead you to go away and think about them. I'm a macro-economist, you know, so I'm sort of interested in what's the big picture likely to be as a result of the earthquake and the nuclear disaster that followed. When we had panels on this in March, just after the events, I think most macro-economists were saying, well, let's say, not at least, but at least we're saying, look, the scale of this event is not in macro-economic terms, and I'm not now talking about the humanitarian issues, which are very severe, but in macro terms it doesn't look like such a big shock that it's going to set Japan back a great deal. I think that the consensus view has evolved slightly since then, since March, things are in some ways more optimistic and in some ways more pessimistic. So the more optimistic side is that production has actually come back on stream more rapidly than people expected in March. And so recent government surveys about how much of productive capacity has been put back in place suggest that most industries are fairly optimistic by the end of the summer, something like 90% of industries think by the end of the summer they're going to be back on track, and I'm not sure how much of this has been covered already, I apologize for coming in a bit late. So what has been remarkable is that the rebuilding of just productive capacity or the relocation of it in a way that was stored functioning to production has been carried out more rapidly than people had feared. There is about a 10% of the manufacturing and service sectors, mostly manufacturing, that were affected still thinking that it will take them possibly a year to get back to speed, but that's a small share. Now what that means is that the estimates for where Japan's growth will be have improved for the year 2011. So most people thought that there'd probably be a bit of a negative effect on growth in 2011. Most estimates have now gone so then they were in April. So most of the estimates are now in the range of, some of these figures come from a government presentation that I listened to a couple of weeks ago in Tokyo, and for those of you who want to see the slides they're available on our conference website that I can refer you to. So estimates for growth forecasts for the present fiscal year 2011 are now around about 1.6% per year. So the Bank of Japan, the OCD, the IMF have all increased their forecasts of growth rate and indeed that's been born out by real performance in the most recent form. But they have also downgraded their forecasts for next year. So there are some dampening factors that are going to kick in and by next year probably growth will be between 1.5% and 2% probably lower than 2%. So now what does that mean overall? Well it partly means that Japan is it's obviously doing better than it was just after the global financial crisis when growth fell was in a negative territory. But it does mean that Japan is still in that rather low growth scenario that it has been struggling with on and off for 20 years. And while there are always short term factors that help explain that what's really critical is what's happening to the underlying productivity growth of the Japanese economy because the longer you're growing more slowly than the potential of your economy the more likely it is that you're undermining and sort of wasting the capacity that your economy has to generate growth. So you actually lose productive capacity the longer you're away from potential. And that comes because new capital investment doesn't take place and it comes because people are unemployed they lose skills and so on. So there's a slight danger that every time there's one of these shocks that keeps Japan at 1.5% growth instead of 2.5 or 3 but that prolongs the period before you get back to productive potential. There are two other things that I throw out as being worth thinking about for the economy. One is what's going to happen to energy. I mean obviously the big question now is what's the future of the nuclear industry in Japan and what are the alternatives. So the future for the nuclear industry I think now looks considerably more doubtful than it did even immediately after the events immediately after everybody was full of we've got to get on and be energetic and optimistic and do things. Now what we've seen of course is that as plants have been closed down in order to check their safety local communities are fighting very strongly against opening them up again. Now since 30% of Japan's energy comes from the nuclear sector that's a very big chunk of your power generation that you have to find from somewhere else. Well what are the alternatives for Japan? Alternative energy, green energy that kind of you know solar, hydro all of those things have pretty much been pushed to their currently feasible limits for reading. Japan has done quite a lot. Okay, so there's not a lot of action that can come from that. Those who are advising the government on this in Japan are saying realistically this means Japan is going to switch more heavily into fossil fuels as a source of energy. There will be a greater reliance on coal and oil as a source of energy and that comes with a bunch of problems. It's adding to global pressure on prices this is a period when prices of these fuels is rising and it's obviously has implications for the planet and environment. So one thing that we have to ask ourselves I mean this may be temporarily good news for Australia and buy some of these things from Australia but you know there will be an issue about Japan facing things like carbon tax will that become a debate in Japan? So I suggest to you that you start thinking about what are the alternative energy futures for Japan and what do they mean? The final one is fiscal policy. We all said Japan can afford to pay for this but it's beginning to look less comfortable for Japan to be able to pay for this and that might mean that interest rates do begin to go up because you have to borrow to pay for this and that might mean that exchange rates go up so in addition to the other risks that nobody has mentioned I think there is probably upward pressure on the exchange rate and just a very slight increase in the risk that Japan becomes part of another global financial crisis where you can't finance government borrowing. It's a very small risk but it's slightly more than a cost. My presentation has become shorter and shorter as the other presentations have gone on because these guys have said pretty well everything that I would want to say so what I'm going to say is reinforce some of the things that they've already said but perhaps bring out some other aspects some of the dynamic that were social behavioural aspects of the response to the earthquake and I know that a lot of you are going to be suffering power point deprivation because Jenny didn't put up a power point so I'm going to put up a power point and I'm going to flash through it very quickly because as I said many of the points have already been made. Getting the Tohoku thing in perspective is what the first two presentations did. It's a huge thing it's a huge thing in terms of a human and physical devastation. Of course the tsunami impact is much bigger than the earthquake impact. This thing as many of you will know had its biggest effect on human life through the tsunami. Over 90% 92% of the casualties in the earthquake were a consequence of a tsunami and to make you guys all feel good and me feel a little bit uncomfortable over 60% of the casualties were over 65 years old so it really hit old people who couldn't run very fast or couldn't fly to the stairs very quickly it was a pretty devastating effect on all the communities in Tohoku. It was a triple disaster and it's important to emphasise the three prom nature of the disaster and as others have said the longer term impact of the disaster really feeds through the Fukushima nuclear power station thing. I've got 13 graduates in TECO one of them the first one we had under the training program we have with TECO and the ANU came at the beginning of the big trade in energy resources gas in particular between Australia and Japan and he is now one of the eight managing directors of TECO responsible for the import of all the fuels uranium, gas, coal, oil and a lot for the TECO company and I've talked to him since the crisis I should say of course as you can imagine the company is visibly shocked the personnel in the company are visibly shaken my friend who is quite young really is aged considerably in the last few months as you can imagine the responsibility of what they have to deal with is enormous among the most costly natural disasters in history not the biggest the Sichuan earthquake in China recently the Tansheng earthquake in China much bigger in terms of loss of human life and all the rest of it the core bear was the biggest most costly one until this one as Novo and Cicero have said is now the most costly the scale of the Fukushima accident as has been said is also still unfolding we haven't got a complete bead on it so that's not a thing that we can actually get into a quantitative perspective yet and I want to come back to that in a moment in terms of its impact on where Japan goes next and compared with the great Hanshin earthquake the one in the core bear the Tohoku earthquake and the tsunami and so on is bigger but in fact it impacted on a much smaller part of the Japanese economy it's bigger mainly because of the impact on energy and nuclear power in particular and of course as Kent reminded us for all of us who had long associations with Japan had a deep personal impact because we didn't have friends involved in the earthquake and about whom we had many anxieties for some time trying to get March the 11th in perspective then in proportion is what I'm one of them but I think it's useful because I don't know what it was like for you from other parts of the world in Australia but one of the indications of the depth of the relationship the automatic attention we give to Japan and Australia now was the extent to which people on in Australian communities and households everywhere in Australia watched the thing unfold and were mesmerised I suppose and shocked by the thing as it unfolded on television and radio in Australia sort of nonstop as somebody who's actively participating in the country on these things of course the extent to which you're pressured to be engaged in that through that process was quite amazing so it's useful to throw up with few slides which basically just remind us of what the enormity of the scale of. I don't think you understand it until you sort of stood in and this is a sort of long distance way of standing in it these pictures of the devastation and the recovery and of course the unexpected consequences of Fukushima thing and the impact on energy in Japan are just visual images of what it all meant How does Tohoku compare? I don't want to spend too much time on this because that's been dealt with very nicely by the first two panellists so I'll skip through these things very quickly and come to the last presentation that can manage the aftermath and what I want to say a few words about is the psychological effect of the disaster. I don't mean personal psychological effect is quite profound if you go to Japan and now as you know I've done frequently I'll be going there next week again and Jenny's been and Tessa's been and so on one of the things of course that's palpable is the sense there is not only have been part of a fairly long funeral and that's part of it but also the sense there is of unstated anxiety about these things and what they mean the sense that even in Tokyo which could a really big shock in Tokyo you're sort of living on borrowed time there's that psychological impact is there and it's a social thing it's a personal thing but it's also a social thing and inevitably impacts upon social even policy thinking and behaviour and so on and it relates to all aspects of this especially the nuclear aspect of it and how that will be managed over time and how it plays into the political process and the policy process in Japan so the nuclear power and energy conundrum is the biggest thing confronting Japan today and it's now feeding in directly to the political process not just the management of the whole disaster and especially the TETCO Fukushima disaster but now how Japanese politics is going to be played out we've got political leaders standing up Mahara today, four years today stood up essentially and said we've got contemplate a non-nuclear future for Japan and we know that the polls suggest that there are more than a majority of the electorate that believe in transitioning to a non-nuclear future and this is a huge thing if it ever is going to be affected certainly if it's going to be affected reasonably quickly in TETCO you can get gas-powered capacity coal-powered capacity up quickly to deal with the immediate impacts of the crisis because those things run at about 50% of capacity all the time so you can fire them up to generate more electricity to cover the immediate gap from nuclear and so on but actually getting much further than that in terms of putting in place the capacity to bring in natural gas and so on they're at limit so you have to bring a big tanker full of natural gas into Tokyo every day if you fire the whole place up with natural gas to capacity so there's a limit to it and getting that capacity in place it doesn't take six months it doesn't take one year it takes ten years or so all these things have a sort of gestation period of five to ten years and my friend here is getting nervous so I'll just conclude with a few other remarks and take another minute and then finish up. So the thing raised a lot of questions about Japan-style crisis management what it showed was the strengths of that but what it also showed were the weaknesses of dealing with unexpected events in a strategic way with unexpected events and that is the management of the Fukushima thing although there are some fantastic lessons about how the grassroots Japanese ingenuity and Japanese custardness responded to the management of that crisis in a way that overthrew all the differences of the systems of governance in Japan. At the plant in Fukushima the guy who was pouring seawater and the plant was told sort of vaguely from above that he shouldn't be pouring seawater in there because there's a possibly bad catalytic reaction as you know if you're a nuclear scientist to pouring seawater in one of these things and essentially took no notice of that and said well if they're sort of vaguely thinking that they might start pouring seawater in there as you tell them to come out here and not pour seawater in another I'll leave the scene and he kept on pouring seawater into it and of course saved Japan from an even more disastrous nuclear process than they presently have. The important and final things I want to say really are that there are quite significant impacts of this happening on Japanese government and politics and I think how that pans out even the next six to nine months or so will be fascinating to watch and it all has to do with the psychology of nervousness and anxiety about the management of nuclear plants it has to do with the way in which Japan responded to the crisis not only demystically but contrast this with COVID when the government was frozen in terms of sending the troops in there was no basis upon which to send the troops in they all dealing with the situation in a decisive way this crisis was managed extremely well but also in terms of you know how to deal with the Fukushima thing and how to respond to the relationship between the government and the private company and the bureaucracy and dealing with that and the final thing to ask is a question that Kent has asked draw him into the conversation so he feels a part of this and he doesn't want to get me off the stage is whether or not this whole thing means some sort of decisive watershed in Japanese affairs one sense well it's got to mean something in terms of way in which Japan manages to sort down the track but in another sense I think a share can spew that really reinforces the traditional sort of values institutions and strengths of Japanese society in which Japan can be extremely proud which stood Japan extremely good sense as it was faced with this crisis and that really is what ultimately shines through in the management of the crisis and so what we have is a reinforcement of the competence, resilience of order that characterizes Japanese society a testament to the fortitude of the Japanese people Japanese institutions and traditions and that's a reinforcing thing so that's a positive aspect a positive outcome of the crisis despite a little nervousness and anxiety that persists because of its impact at an individual level on the social level and at a big sort of national security level all around the final thing is that really what this crisis did quite differently from the Corbett crisis too to show how connected Japan has become with the international community when Corbett happened there was an incredible shyness about allowing foreigners to come into help it was an immediate response to bring foreign help in relationship between Japan and the United States through the security dimension the response to the crisis has become stronger at the same time as Nobu was showing us very clearly the links with the international economic community and the international community through the economics has become stronger too so in one sense this thing has reinforced or intensified the policies schizophrenia in Japan's foreign policy which sees you know the links with the US through the security community and the links with China through the economic community thrown into highlight once again in the management of this crisis as it is in highlight in every day of days in Japan Thank you Peter I was going to make a couple of extra comments but I think Peter picked them up but just to make sure that when we go into questions they're not lost also recognize we have an economic emphasis but recognize the political dimensions and we now have a Prime Minister who has said he will step down on the basis of an interesting coalition and the second is for Australia the security relationships the fact that the self defense forces were able to deploy as Peter said within five minutes and the cooperation with the United States has given a a refound sense of the role that the SCF the self defense forces might play in Japan and the cooperation with the United States so politics and security are two different dimensions I want to get you out to lunch or excuse me 2.40 I think that gives me about five minutes for questions and then we'll break into groups and I think most of the speakers will be circulating among the groups but I'm just a five minutes worth of questions if you want to take this plenary session but your first, second, third and that's it this please I have a motion to approve Peter's question so it's a wonderfully fascinating election that you use several words on psychology because I would especially appreciate that but I couldn't understand the basis of the word that you have used here in the last century in this very important policy, schizophrenia by schizophrenia what do you mean paranoia or something else no, not paranoia the difficulty the situation in Japan and many other countries in the region is put in terms of the relationships security relationships with the United States and the very powerful economic relationships with China and marrying those two things together is difficult because China is a security challenge potentially which came at the same time without the deep connections economically with China the Japanese economy wouldn't be in the strong even though it's got a few weaknesses in terms of growth performance wouldn't be the strong and international competitive economy of this today over 40% of the output of Japanese manufacturing firms is produced in Asia most of it in China and that's what makes them of course international competitive this following out process that Norma mentioned of short it goes to competitive locations drawings, supply lines reprocessing or assembling elsewhere that's the strength of the Japanese production system internationalised and of course it's deeply linking with China Asia so you can't have a friend only in the United States for security purposes or a friend only in China for economic purposes and that politically is what I call a sort of schizophrenic problem okay so we're going to do the last two speakers I'm going to ask you not to put all the preparatory thank you very much that was the best thing I've ever heard I'm going to ask the respondents to keep it really short and sharp so there was one here in the middle out of here I'm going to say my question you said you were sorry in that case you can go on as long as you want you said a lot of commentators have made and you thought this was a mistake to this very bad natural disaster and build a narrative around it and perhaps this is a mistake but you've noticed you wanted to the traditionally apathetic Japanese they've been really re-energised of this disaster of volunteerism and like politically apathetic but they're really trying to help those who have been affected by the disaster so do you see perhaps that this is this earthquake as an tsunami has been the job stuff that Japanese youth need to engage with Japanese in the political scene or is it just an aberration? so I'll make a very quick response but then turn to Tessa so my quick response is I disagree with the traditional analysis that says Japan's apathetic I think at the local level Japan has always said will remain very active and engaged but it's been very localised it's just now that we see that spring to a higher level Tessa just very briefly similar to Kent I think what's come out of the disaster has been some amazing activity at the local level and a lot of communities responding absolutely remarkably and also young people as you say I think there's a huge disjunction between national politics and at the same time that that's happening there's been intense and increasing disillusionment about national politics and the really interesting thing to see is going to be how that divide plays out this energy at the local level but the disillusionment about the national politics last question my question is about whether the disaster is going to change Japan's foreign policy and as Dr Kana Shikun talked about Japan's heavy violence on nuclear power however the public's confidence in the safety of nuclear energy is seriously shaken and also Professor Jenny Cobb has mentioned that Japan will have to turn to oil and coal as substitutes but I'm wondering whether this will make Japan adopt more aggressive foreign policy so as to compete for more strategic interests in the world Professor I'm just answering kind of out of your question so I'm also a businessman and I know how people feel about nuclear power and everything so we have a belief that nuclear energy is quite safe so what happens when you destroy the whole of the event nobody could imagine how big a technology is but if you go back to the history of Japan's energy policy Japan as a country doesn't have any resources unlike in Australia so we always have to pay the foreign country to supply us the energy and we sort of in a few of the trigger statistics 6% huge amount of the oil from the sea and the oil show happening in 1970 and the government also is saving the lives on this power problem that's why this great scheme on this nuclear power session came into but we always have a belief that this is a very safe way of generating energy and now what happens at large levels people as a government is convinced that now we have to move away from nuclear energy and I was in Japan two weeks ago and I commented that discussing about how about we have nuclear energy underground that's what we need we can call it a nuclear program and obviously government is trying to do renewable energy there's something Jenny has mentioned for me I think next 10 to 20 years we still have to rely on this nuclear power things but eventually my kids or my grandkids generation will see more renewable energy shipping so unfortunately I'm going to call it there please join me in thanking the speaker


Why the narcissist treats the next person better. The narcissist often treats the next person better. They give them everything you wanted from them. They begin by pointing out your faults and mistakes. Things that are of little importance. Things that don't really matter. Which then leads to them betraying you. It leads to them becoming devious. Where they end up plotting and scheming against you. But they won't tell you about these things that they don't like. They will be indirect and dishonest. Because they know that it's not worth talking about it. They know they don't have a solid stance or valid argument to back up their case. But they will let it build up until they have enough to justify their wrongdoing towards you. Things that they shouldn't be doing. They will go out and do these things to you. Because that's just the type of person they are. They focus on things that are of little importance. And then they blow it out of proportion. They exaggerate it because they're childish and immature. So they will tease you and do things to you. But they wouldn't want you to do that to them. Which is why the moment you even imply that you're going to do something of a similar nature. They will get very angry.  They will say you don't care about them. But they didn't feel that way about themselves when they did the same thing to you. Which is why you cannot be in a relationship or even be friends with these types of people. Because when it's all over they will project everything they've done on to you. They will blame you for everything. And then they will use it to justify them going off with someone else. Because it's an endless cycle of patterns and behaviors. They just do the same thing again and again. When you first met them they were telling you things about their ex. They said they did this or that. Without taking accountability for anything that they did. Which is why when they go off to the next person. When you may just have wanted them to do certain things. You may have asked them to cooperate with you. You may have asked them to stop fighting you. But then they went off with someone else. And now it may look like things are going well with this new person. But it's because they're on a mission to prove something to you. Because it's a competition and they're trying to win. By proving to you that you were the problem. But they're fine with this new person. They're able to give them everything they need. So it will look like they're doing better. Because they intended to find someone else and do everything that you wanted them to do. But this is where karma comes to get them. Because the very thing that they were withholding from you. Which they then gave to the next person. It's what causes them to get taken advantage of in the next situation. Because they were always so cold and distant with you. And you just wanted them to open up. You wanted them to cooperate with you. You wanted them to be more understanding. So that you could have a better relationship. But they were playing a power game. They were competing for control. So they used bread crumbing. Where they were giving you just enough crumbs of attention and affection. While you were making them a priority. But the game ends when you confront them on their behaviors. Because that is when they turn against you. That is when you become their enemy. And then they start competing with you. So they don't care about who they're with next. They just want to prove a point to you. They just want to show you that you were the problem. And it makes them feel better about themselves. When they give the next person what they didn't give to you. Even if you don't see it. Because it makes them feel like they're getting revenge. They're punishing you. So if you always wanted to get married or have children. They will go and do that. Because they're hoping that at some point you will see it. They want to hurt you. They want you to feel like you're lacking the quality or quantity required. As though you're insufficient for a purpose. But they're just playing a role. It isn't real or authentic. They're just using it to take revenge on you. Because you caused a narcissistic injury when you confronted them. When you realized they're fake. It hurt them. Because deep down they know that it's true. So now they have to get you back. By doing everything you wanted with someone else. By giving their commitment and cooperation to someone else. Which is very crazy and foolish. It's lacking good sense and judgment. Because it could be anyone. They don't even care who it is. They're so desperate to prove a point just so they can feel better. But they end up in a worse situation than when they were with you. And sometimes you will see it all fall apart. But you may wonder why they couldn't stay with you. You may wonder why they had to move on with someone else. And the reason for that is because their false character was not built for longevity. Because they know they're too weak to sustain it. So it has to be short too. It has to be short lived fun and excitement. And they will always end up betraying you in the end. Weak characters will always betray you in the end. Because you cannot build anything out of games and nitpicking. Nothing good will come out of their foolish behavior. They had their chance with you. They had their chance with a winner. And life doesn't work the way that they think it does. They don't just keep finding winners. And if they lost their chance with a winner then what other choice do they have? If they couldn't win with a winner then how are they going to win with someone else? They're defective. So you should let them go. Because you should only want high quality people in your life. So don't go running after them. Their behaviors reveal a weak character. So wherever else they go they're not going to succeed or meet the requirements. They might get by in the beginning. But eventually it's going to fall apart. So you shouldn't be jealous about anything they're doing. Because you should remember the type of person that they were. If they couldn't make something happen with you and they wanted to go somewhere else then they've got nothing coming. But they were all talk in the beginning. They talked about doing things but they never actually did them. Because that was just to get them the audition so that they could get the benefits that come along with it. But after that they became less and less effective. Their performance deteriorated with time. Because they got what they wanted. So then they did things with little effort and care. And that's not what you want. So when you realize that you won't care about losing them.  Because they're not going to help you win anyway. They're just going to disappoint you. Because they're not going to do what you expect or what you trust them to do. They're going to fall short. They're going to become absent or inadequate. They're going to drop out. Because they already know they're not what's really meant for you. So they were only there to benefit from you. They knew they weren't any good for you. But they knew something else out there would be good for you. And that is why they stuck around. Because they didn't want you to have that. Even though they weren't really trying to be with you for the long run. They stuck around to reduce you to the bare minimum. They used secrecy and dishonesty to achieve an advantage over you. To reduce you to the lowest possible level. And then they were out of there. And they complained about how you couldn't do the things you used to do for them.  But what they didn't say is that they were the cause of it. They were the reason why you hit a slump. They were doing things behind your back. They were sabotaging you. They were causing you stress. They were always in disagreement with you. To make sure that things got worse for you. So that when they were ready to leave you would have nothing. No comfort, safety or security. No pride, no confidence, no money. They wanted to take all of that away from you. So that when they finally leave.  And they're happy with that. Because if they can leave you in that condition. Then they're never going to regret leaving you. If they don't have to watch you move on. Making things happen. And being something to someone. Something that they didn't want you to be. Because they never wanted to be anything to you. They just wanted to stick around long enough. To fulfill their task of tearing you down. Which is why they never try to lift you to a higher position. They never made you more cheerful, positive or optimistic. They never helped you to build anything. Which is why there was no point in them even being around. Thank you for watching. If you found this video helpful please give it a thumbs up. Share your thoughts in the comment section. Hit the subscribe button to receive the notifications. If you would like to support the channel. You can donate at paypal.me-survivor. You can book a one-on-one with me on my website. It's narksurvivor.co.uk Thank you for watching. And I'll talk to you soon.


In this cave by the restless sea, we are met to call from out the past stories strange and weird. Bellkeeper, hold the bell so all may know we are gathered again in the weird circle. Did you see her, Miss McMurdy? Did you write past her? Did I see who? A young lady. I was riding after her. She was walking this way. Saw no one, Alan? Oh, come now, you must have met her. Where did she go? What ills you? I met no young lady. But you must have. This head show was so high and so thick, she couldn't have got out of it. Confirmly, I don't understand this. I was in Poland, isn't it? For just now, on the top of Birki Hill, she turned and walked in this direction. She couldn't yet have been beyond this point. What did she look like, Alan? I declare I've never seen such a female figure. She had on a pure white ghost frock, a small green bonnet and feathers and a green veil. She was a fine looking girl, Mr. McMurdy. You're no making game of me. Did you know really, Mr. McMurdy? Alan, I'm a word of truth and honor, I did not. Come, ride back with me. We may meet her. She's given you the go-by on the road. I can't understand it, Mr. McMurdy. I do hope we'll find her. She was the loveliest thing I've ever seen.  A small green bonnet with feathers and a green veil. Oh, I must have already told you that. Yes, and with a lover's gleam in your eye. Oh, Mr. McMurdy, look there. See? There she is at the very same spot where I saw her the first time. Where? A denacea. There? At the bend of the road? A still denacea. Look where I'm pointing. She's standing there in a white frock and green veil, as I told you. Oh, what a lovely creature. Alan, upon my word. There? There she turned the anglin' road. She's gone out of sight. Come, let's hurry. I can't lose her this time. She'll be right around this turn. I certainly hope so. Oh, good heavens. She's gone again. Alan, my lad. You must be imagining it. Alan, you look pale as death. What ails you? I remember now. Once I had a dream of the same nature. It ended in some sort of a terrible manner. And I think you're dreaming still. But never mind, Alan. It's quite common for handsome young men to dream of beautiful maidens with white frocks and green veils. But I'm worried about my dream, Mr. McMurdy. It had a very bad ending. What was it? Well, I can't rightly recollect. You know how dreams are. But I do know it was something terrible. Perhaps your dinner did not agree with you. And you merely fancied you saw this lady. No, no, Mr. McMurdy. My boy, you're trembling like a leaf. I did see her, I did. And I've got to see her again. And she was a very wraithous woman. For she proved the undoing of my good friend Alan Sanderson, Laird of Birkendale. He first saw her in St. Lawrence Eve in the year 1777. And from the afternoon he was bewitched. Each day he rode to the top of Berkey Hill, hoping to see his phantom. But the vision did not appear. At last his doctor directed him to visit his sister in Ireland. And there Margaret helped young Alan mend his health. One morning, well, anyway, here's what Alan told me later. Alan, are you awake? Hi. Hi, Margaret. Breakfast is ready. Will you be down soon? Almost immediately. I'll be out of bed in a minute. Hurry, Alan. A hot breakfast is much better eaten hot, you know. All right, Margaret. I'll hurry. Hello, there. I've been waiting for you. How did you get in here? No. No, I must be dreaming again. This is no dream. I dream. I was trying to forget you. If you're an operation... But I'm not. You'll see. Hold me close. Oh, you are real. I can't believe it. I love you so. From the very first moment I set eyes on you. I've loved you. And I've loved you, too. You'll never know how much I've suffered without you. No man has ever loved a woman as dear as I love you. Come. Come down and meet me, sister. Here? Yes. I came here to Ireland to stay with her for a wee while. What do you mean? I don't understand. Oh. We're not in no room at all. We're standing on Burkey Hill in Scotland. Of course. This is the only spot where you've ever seen me. I can't recollect how it happened. You mean you don't remember coming back from Ireland? No. No, I can't. But since we're here, come home with me now to my own house. No, Alan. I can't meet you anywhere but here on Burkey Hill. Till after our marriage. Can't marry you till St. Lawrence is. Two years from now. Two years? But why must we wait that long? I can't explain, Alan. There isn't time. I must go now. Oh, no, no. I don't even know your name. My name is Jane Ogilvy. Jane Ogilvy. You were the truth to me before you were born. I don't understand. It's true. It happened long ago. I came here the day to release you if you have the slightest... Release me? No, no, Jane, no. I'm yours forever, I swear it. When may I see you again? On St. Lawrence Eve. And every St. Lawrence Eve. Till the day we're married. I don't know how I can live till then, but I'll be here waiting for you. Pledge to each other. Will you change rings with me? Yes. Yes, darling, certainly. Here, you take this ring and keep it all. I'll love you forever. I'll be waiting here for you on St. Lawrence Eve. Jane, come back. Please come back. Jane, Jane, don't leave me. Jane, Jane, Jane. What is it? Alan, it's Margaret. Get dressed and come downstairs. Your breakfast is ready. Where are you having a nightmare? Oh, yes, sister, yes. It must have been dreaming. I'd rest and come down right away. It couldn't have been. It was too real. And her ring... It's on the finger. Then it was near dream. It wasn't a dream after all. Well, good friends, do you still hold the foolish belief that there's no such thing as ghosts and spirits? If poor Alan was puzzled to account for some things in the course of his dream, he was much more puzzled to account for them now that he was wide awake. He dressed himself and hurried down to the breakfast parlor, where he joined his sister, Margaret, and Lucky Black, the old woman who had known his family for so many years. Good morning, Margaret. And Lucky, I'm very glad to see you. Eh? Who is this now? Lucky. It's Alan, my brother. Alan. Hi, so it is. The way he stands there with his dark eyes and his black hair, he might be his father, or even his grandfather. Come over to my chair, Alan. Let me take your hand. Alan, are you all right? Yes, Margaret, I'm all right. No, my head's in the sort of a well.  Are you ill? No, no, no, I'm all right. Thank you. You've got to be very careful about dampness and night vapors. I...  Night after night, she'll receive her finally to go off. You're sure you're not feeling ill? No, I tell you I'm all right. Alan just had a bad dream, Lucky. When I went up to awaken him, he was screaming as though he'd seen the old Nick. Bad dreams, Alan. You have bad dreams, too? It wasn't a bad dream, Lucky. When I got to your door, I heard you calling the name Jane. Yes, about Jane. Oh, it's nothing, nothing. What's for breakfast, Margaret? Here's a cup of hot tea. I'll get the oatmeal. What else did you dream, Alan? Tell me quickly. Lucky, I tell you it was nothing. But you said her name was Jane. Yes. Was it Jane or Goldie? Alan! Your teacup. How did you know her name? The rest of your dreams. There's no more.  I'll not see her again to St. Lawrence Eve. But protect her, Lucky. What's the matter? St. Lawrence Eve sent two. Two for him and all his kids. What are you talking about? Margaret. Margaret. Don't let him go. Keep him here in Ireland. Find him, Margaret. Find him. What do you mean? I tremble to think on his fate. May the Lord preserve him from it. Oh, the old woman's death. What is that ring I see on your left hand? Let me look at the ring. Oh, Lucky. Oh, the poor old woman. She's fainted. What in the world? Alan, let me see that ring. Oh, Alan. Burn it. Burn it. It's not a right ring. Burn it, Alan, now. My dear sister, I am saying too. It's a very pretty ring it was given me. And I said great value by it. You haven't said destroy it and renounce the givers. I'll do no such thing. If you want peace, if you have any regard for your soul, destroy that ring. But why? If you saw with your own eyes, Alan, you'd know it's not a ring that's bitten a Christian to wear. Destroy it. Destroy it, Alan. When Alan Sanderson returned to Scotland, his mind was in great confusion. And they sought me out the very first day he arrived. We were sipping a bit of wine and Alan was... I'm at a great loss for an excuse. I'm at a great loss for an explanation, Mr. McMurray. I'm at a great loss for an explanation, Mr. McMurray. But I do know that I yell no more than ever for a glimpse of jailed ogle.  Tell me this. Whatever calls the collapse of that old woman in your sister's house. You mean Lucky Black? She would never tell me. As a matter of fact, I couldn't have forced her to say anything at all. Her lips were sealed out of fear, I think. Do you think I have a look at it? No. No. I've sewed it within the vest, right next to my heart. And I'll now bring it out into the light till my wedding day. Well, did you notice anything strange about it? No. I did, Mr. McMurray. It's not but a gold ring with a bright emerald set in it. Then what is your explanation of the way the two women acted? I have none. But all my life I've had a feeling that this fate awaits me. But as long as I have my love, I'll no worry about the mystery of it. So young Alan was determined and patiently he waited as the months went by. He was so caught up in the wonder of his love for this phantom that no amount of talk could discourage him. No one again nor saw him wandering aimlessly about Birkey Hill. And at last came the eve of St. Lawrence. Would the phantom of this woman he loved appear again? Jane. Jane O'Gurphy. This is the magic night. Where are you on this eve, St. Lawrence? I'm here, Alan. Where, Jane? Where? In the darkness. In a moment, look. The moon is coming over the eastern hills. In the light of the moon, you can see me. Jane. Oh, my Jane. This year has been the longest of my life. Now, the moonlight comes and I come to you. Oh, my darling. How beautiful you are. Afraid. Afraid of you? How could it be? I love you more than I thought a man could ever love. I would gladly give him a life for the wonder of it. Then you will wait for me until I can be your bride. If I must. I will wait. The year is not forever. And then I'm yours. But why must we wait? Come with me now, Jane. I cannot now, my darling. But take me in your arms. The moon is coming over the eastern hills. The moonlight warms my heart. There is only a moment more. My Jane. My Jane. And now goodbye until a year has gone. And so before Alan Sanderson stretched another year, separating him from this specter girl he loved, his sister Margaret worried because of his silence wrote me often to know how young Alan was and I was able to write only that he seemed a happy man. How could a teller of my growing premonition that he was also a doomed man, doomed to die? So when the evil St. Lawrence came again, I purposely waited at my gate for a new Alan Sanderson would soon come riding by. I had not long to wait. And greetings to you, Alan. You see before you're the most impatient man in the world. Do I know? And why may I ask? Because tonight's the night. Tonight's the evil St. Lawrence. So it is. As if you didn't know. I suppose I did know, my boy. Tonight we to be married. Alan, it is not too late. Take the advice of an old man and dinner go to Berkey Hill. Oh, come now, Mr. McMurray. I have waited a lifetime for this night to come. I'm afraid for you, my boy. Because I'm in love? No. Tonight's our wedding night. The most saints protect you. You didn't know Jane Oglethey as I do. She loves me, Mr. McMurray. And tonight we're off on a long journey. But your sister Margaret, does she know? I have written to her in Ireland. Well, it's late. And soon the moon will rise. I must be at Berkey Hill when I dull. Goodbye, Mr. McMurray. You'll be seeing me again. Goodbye, my boy. I hope I'll be seeing you again. And I rode away toward Berkey Hill, a doomed man. And I was not surprised the next morning to receive an urgent message from Alan's sister Margaret, who during the night had come to Scotland. The note asked me to meet her at Alan's house. And when I arrived, the poor girl was in a pitiful state.  Have you just arrived from Ireland? Yes, but I'm afraid I've come too late. Too late? I, Mr. McMurray, as Alan told you everything. He's told me about his visions and his dreams and the meetings with this mysterious girl. When did you see him last? Last night, just as he rode off to the married. The eve of St. Lawrence. It's what I was afraid of. Is that old woman still in Ireland? No, I brought her back with me. She's in the next room, resting. I'd like to see her in questioner. Perhaps I can make her speak. Margaret, there's something about all this. I don't like a bit. You feel it too. The entire thing is weird and unnatural. May I speak to Lucky Black? Yes, but first read this letter. It's from Alan. He wrote it a long time ago and posted it to me in Ireland. Dearest sister, this time next month I shall be the most happy or most miserable man in the world. On St. Lawrence eve I have solemnly engaged myself to wed a young and beautiful lady named Jane Ogilvy, to whom it seems I was betrothed before I was born. That's the part I don't understand. Or do I? Read the rest of it. I have a most private and mysterious nature, but my troth is pledged and my resolution fixed. On the natural eve, we will set out on a far journey to the place of Hurrah-Bode. It will belong before I see you again. Yours till death, your brother Alan. Yours till death. I'm afraid, Mr. McMurray. What can we do? First, we've got to talk to the old lady. This way, then. No one might be able to make her talk. I'm almost afraid to hear what she has to say. Lucky? Lucky? This is Mr. McMurray. How do you do, sir? It's an urgent matter. I would like to speak to you about her. A matter perhaps of life or death for Alan. I have nothing to say about the young man. Dilemma, sir. But you must speak, Lucky. You must. There's something you know that may help him. I'm sure of it. You do not understand the strange workings of fate. We are only human beings. We have no way of combating a force that's outside our understanding. Oh, don't you see, Mr. McMurray? It's no use. Hey, listen. What is that? A horse. Coming up the path. Here. You can see it from the window. It's Alan's horse without a rider. How the height of him shines. He's been running that path, Mr. McMurray. Let me see. Oh, Heaven protect us. It has happened. What do you mean? What's happened? The deed is done. It's Jane Ogilvy. Lucky, tell us what you mean. Oh, it has happened now. I know it has. So I can speak. Then quickly, woman. A tale of sadness and horror it is. The first Alan Sanderson before he married the great heiress of Birkendelle was engaged to a beautiful young lady named Jane Ogilvy. Jane Ogilvy? Aye. He gave the lass anything but fair play. And they say he murdered her on Birkey Hill. Is it true? Do you believe this story? Aye. For I have good reason to believe it when I was a little lass I saw the red blood and the new grave. It filled me with such fright I never told anyone about it. And 20 years later the next Alan Sanderson was found dead on that very spot lying across the green mountain. Oh, it can be true. Miss Margaret, come quickly. Missouri is outside. But where? Birkey Hill. Heaven grant, there may still be time. This is the road where your brother saw the first time. And just around the bend is Birkey Hill. Oh, Mr. McNerdy. I'm afraid. Gee up. Birkey, look. Oh, there. Aye, Miss Margaret. Oh. We're too late. Oh. Alan. Oh, my poor. Just as his father and grandfather died there he lies on the green mound of his father's grave. Oh, that's why. Why? He's the last male of his line, Miss Margaret. And the Sanderson name dies wherever. It is a blessing in disguise. Take me away. I can't bear to look at him. Now the phantom will haunt the eve of St. Lawrence no longer. The wicked people of the world will now have a lesson on divine justice, Miss Margaret. Written for them in lines of blood. From the time or pages of the past we have brought you the story The Mysterious Bride.


Ladies and gentlemen, it's a pleasure to be here to present some of the perspective from African cities. I have to caution ahead of my presentation that much of the work we've done has been in Nairobi and in Kenya and therefore a lot of what I'll talk about borrows heavily from the Kenyan experience as opposed to many African cities. And a good reason for that is that perhaps if a book was to be written how not to urbanize in the 21st century I think Kenya would make a good case study of how not to urbanize in the 21st century. So my topic is well-being, a perspective from African cities and the African population and hence research center has been doing quite a lot of work on trying to understand the urbanization process in sub-Saharan Africa but most importantly the consequences of this urbanization process. So I'll talk a bit about urbanization and poverty in Africa because these two processes cannot be divorced from each other. The health challenges in the urban sub-Saharan Africa with a huge focus on Nairobi, looking at the dominance of infectious diseases in the health profile but also an emerging importance of non-communicable diseases and then trying to dig a little bit deeper in the intra-urban differences in health outcomes and just one slide on what this means for policy and practice. I think you've seen this slide perhaps in many publications in different forms and shapes but I'll get to focus on the upper set of bars and what this shows is that in the last five years between 2005 and 2010 the slump the annual population growth rate in slums has been about 4.5 percent and that's compared to just 1.6 percent in sub-Saharan Africa and as opposed to 3.65 percent in other urban areas in general. So what this means is that slums have grown at a much faster rate than the rest of the population but the urban population has also grown at a faster rate than the rural population and projections between for up to 2010 show that in actual fact the population in slums in sub-Saharan Africa is probably going to double and the urban population is also going to double but then the total population sorry is going to increase by about 40 percent. So by 2010 we expect that almost more than one third of the total population in sub-Saharan Africa will actually be living in slums and about half the population will be living in cities and the consequence of that is the cities like Nairobi with a very you know almost not comparable to Hong Kong but getting there slowly of central business districts and a slum that's less than 10 kilometers from the city center or the central business district and in some of these slum settlements our estimates from the work we've done in some of the slums show that the population density is about 65,000 per kilometer squared. I was seeing the estimates from Chile which is 16,000 per kilometer squared so you can imagine maybe two and a half times of that on one kilometer squared of space and of course this brings different challenges in terms of health. Now a critical part of this I think it I cannot overemphasize the fact that it's not just a healthcare system that influences health but it has a path to play in health outcomes. I think the gentleman from Chile shared about 25 percent which is critical. So the problem is that as the urban population has grown the number of public health facilities has not kept pace with the urban growth and we've done a survey that shows that for everyone public health facility that that serves a slum settlement there about 100 private health facilities of all shapes and sizes as you'll see from these are real pictures not photoshopped so right down here we have a health clinic that also offers maternity services in one of the slums. This is a hospital. Hospitality is hospital in Kiswahili the local language and there's one up there that even has an ambulance so there's a whole range of private health providers that have sprung up to feel a gap that is left by the absence or the near absence of public health facilities and to make matters worse the few public health facilities that exist open between eight and five on weekdays and that's the time when most slum residents are out looking for employment so the result is overcrowded but I think more overwhelmed public health facilities and the dominant private profit sector in numeric terms has very limited support and integration in the public system very poor regulatory framework and some of the studies that we've done show that we did a survey in three slums Nairobi has about 80 depending on different classifications we did a survey in three slums and we're and we enumerated more than 500 health facilities but at the same time the number of registered health facilities in the whole of Nairobi was less than 450 so if three slums at 500 I don't know less than half of them or maybe a quarter of them were registered so very poor regulation in terms of the private sector very unlimited support but this is the system that more than 70% of the slum residents access that's the private sector so what are the health challenges that are dominant in urban sub-saharan Africa for the whole region in general communicable diseases infectious diseases account for the greatest disease burden I think estimates in mortality to put it around 70% of the mortality is from infectious diseases and so a similar pattern of the dominance of communicable diseases observed in urban areas and this can be explained by different factors environmental factors in urban areas specifically limited access to clean water and sanitation services a huge burden from indoor air pollution among the underfives almost 25% of children are dying from pneumonia and this can be closely linked to indoor air pollution as a result of cooking practices within these small little sharks that people live in where people cook in the same room where they sleep of course of a crowding 60,000 per square kilometer one case of measles can easily become an outbreak because of just a close proximity of people food insecurity a huge problem in terms of the results on malnutrition in children but also in women and the consequences this has for infectious diseases but also high risk behavior alcohol drug use and the association between this and sex and of course the attendant risks of HIV for instance but then as I said limited access to preventive health services for non communicable diseases we estimate that this as time goes on will outstrip communicable diseases in the next few decades and this is a result of increased behavior risk factors specifically diet alcohol use and tobacco use surprisingly or not surprisingly especially in this lamp settlements physical inactivity is not a huge problem because people work for miles and miles and miles looking for work and then in terms of diet very limited dietary diversity but also very surprising a high use of street foods and fast foods in these slump settlements this is very recent data that shows that the households with the severest food insecurity are the households which are most likely to consume street foods and our assumption has been that in this poor environment if you're to for instance control some of the salt consumption perhaps it's most it's important to focus on the household consumption patterns but then we find that most are consuming food outside the household and then of course other environmental factors air water and soil pollution I think you've had the problem of e-west especially in countries like Nigeria and then limited access to screening and other preventive services and just put it to perspective in terms of risk factors over the last 15 years the prevalence of overweight and obesity among women of reproductive age has almost doubled from around 13% to 25% but this this is at the national level the increase is more marked in urban areas where the rates now are almost 40% among women of reproductive age compared to 20% in rural areas and similar results are found in Ghana. A third cause of death from injuries this both intentional and intentional and mostly driven by road safety or lack thereof with increasing traffic volumes this is a typical Nairobi Street on a typical day limited access to emergency services imagine you're stuck somewhere in an ambulance in this I mean there's unless you're going to fly over the the traffic but even if you had an an emergency as a result of a road traffic accident somewhere else it's unlikely you reach anywhere in time to save your life of very high levels of interpersonal violence as a result of limited social cohesion especially in these slam settlements crime and insecurity and limited access to law and enforcement law enforcement and judicial services so as a result of the limited access to preventive services I mentioned earlier we find very low levels of children who are fully vaccinated only 51% very high levels of malnutrition and stunting HIV prevalence almost double the national the rural average contraceptive rates that are very high and a lot of other indicators when look at the top causes of death we find that the the the combined mortality from injuries and non-communicable diseases in a relatively young age group is almost the same as the combined death from HIV and age-rated death but among males in this age group injuries and accidents contribute almost one-third of the mortality while in females it's HIV that is mostly the communist cause of death other indicators if you compare the infant mortality rate path 1000 live birth almost 96 per 1000 compared to 60 for Nairobi as a whole and 58 for the whole of Kenya and down here under five I mean maternal mortality rate almost 700 in the Nairobi slums as compared to 488 for the whole of Kenya I'll skip I'll just go briefly about this the one of the indicators where the urban the urban is doing worse than the rural areas is teenage pregnancy in the previous slide there the urban average is about 18% and the rural is slightly above above 17 but if you dig that if you dig deeper within the urban within the urban population the richest urban in 1993 had a four times less probability for a teenager of being pregnant or having a child by age 19 and it has gone slightly up to about nine but still compared with the urban poor it's around 26% almost three times three times the risk of being a teenager and pregnant this is my last slide about the increasing risk for cardiovascular diseases which is one of the five major communicable diseases and what this shows that this is exclusively among the slum population a diabetes prevalence of about 4% which is not bad but for an age group of 18 and above if you take it at a high age group it's around 11% but the most disturbing statistic is that out of these people who are diabetic only 20% of them are previously diagnosed or they are aware that they are diabetic and of those who are aware about two-thirds are on treatment and of those who are on treatment that's in the last one year only 51% are on treatment in the last two weeks but at the population level if you start with 100 diabetics less than one of them are actually well controlled and the majority is because they're not aware those who are aware not treated those are treated and not even properly treated and the findings on high blood pressure not very different so what this shows is that undetected and treated and uncontrolled risk factors who somebody who is a diabetic today will be a kidney failure in about five years time at this rate or will be heart attack or a stroke in about five years time at the rate the rate of lack of awareness lack of treatment and lack of control so the implications for police and practice I think for urban sub-saharan Africa it's difficult to address urban health in sub-saharan Africa without addressing the plight of the urban poor and our research has shown that if you ask them what are your most important needs employment is high on the list so it's not enough to say we shall provide health services employment is about the for 40% of the respondents is the most important need a triple burden of disease is evident as we showed infectious disease communicable and injuries and we think that health and other social indicators for the urban poor increasingly drive national indicators and slump settlements positively a highly resource to their entrepreneurs their civil societies their humanitarians and policies and programs that aim to improve health and well-being in urban sub-saharan Africa need to harness all these resources I thank you