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Last wheel of mud was so bittersweet, so bittersweet. We had one of the coolest introductions to a wheel of mud season ever. A little mini vlog. We opened an insane Panini Impeccable box. We got Detroit Lions as our team for this season, so I'm so excited about that. But we had a close game where I had, seriously, five of the five of the interceptions. Oh, I'm dead! Now, if you watch the game, you'd understand why.  Some of it was Bryce Young. Some of it was Electronic Arts. Now, listen, regardless of where the blame falls, I am ready for an incredible, incredible bounce back episode. Let's lock it in, let's have an amazing one, and let's talk about the team right now. So we did get to keep a few players. Sam LaPorta is our team captain for Detroit Lions season. Justin Jefferson came from the Panini Impeccable box, which was a 40 bomb from the Super Bowl. I also completed my challenge wheel, which means I had one pack from the store that got me Ezra Cleveland and Quinton Johnston, who both get to stay on the squad. And at the very start of that episode, I did force a super fast rage quit. We're not gonna count it as a win, but it did earn me this Drake Green loss. So honestly, we could be way worse off than we are right now, but we are missing two corners. We're missing half our D-line. We've got a silver outside linebacker and no free safe. On offense, we're missing more than half of our offensive line, and most importantly, we do not have a single usable player in the back. It's looking a little rough, but I do have a very silver lining. I don't think that's how you use that saying, but regardless, I forgot something. And in this case, forgetting something was pretty good. There is one pack in this game that you can only earn by actually winning a head to head Super Bowl. And that is this pack right here, the trophy pack. I'm not exactly sure what it guarantees, but you usually get really good players in it. I won the Super Bowl on Texan season. I was rewarded with the trophy pack. I'm allowed to open this pack. I just forgot last episode because there were so many things happening. So we'll start this episode by opening the trophy pack that we earned. And hopefully I really would like a half back here or a quarterback. I don't want to have to redo my whole backfield again. You get three players in this pack. They're guaranteed, I think, to be 90 overall or better. I think, and this is a 90 overall or better, but that is really not a position we need. Just showing war and we get a 92 overall detackle. Not going to pretend like that helps us too much. It's okay. Series Redux is, I K, okay, sort of, I guess. Tanked down 91 overall. I didn't pull a tank Dell. Impeccable. A little throwback to Texan season, I guess. That'll work. I do need a wide receiver. Our last is a Redux as well. It's a quarterback. Yes. Honestly, Buck Bryce Young, I would way rather have 91 war and moon. I'm cool with that. 91 overall war and moon is my technical quarterback right now. I honestly think it would be really nice. Dude, because if I use two wheel spins on a quarterback and a half back, I don't get any other help on this team. I think I have to rock war and moon for today's episode. Whatever, dude. As long as it's not Bryce Young, I don't even care. He even gets hot raw master.  All right. I'm rocking hot. Dude, this is actually a pretty good quarterback. Hot raw master, gunslinger and gift wrapped. It's going to be six AP. 91 war and moon. Excited to have you buddy. Beggars can't be choosers. If wishes were horses, then beggars would ride. If wishes were horses, then only fans models fathers would love them. If wishes were horses, then Brecky Hall would ride me. I'm just full of analogies today. So I take it back. I forgot we retained Quentin Johnston. We don't need tank Dell at all. So that was a wash of a pole. Tershawn Wharton though, is low key decent. All right, gentlemen, war and moon could be the quarterback today. We'll see what the wheels got and so up for us though. Three wheel spins to determine what we can add to this team. Our first one, let's go. I got this recently too. The wheel of heights is a fun one. It low key makes it hard to get a position you want though if you get the wrong height. Like I couldn't exactly have a five nine left guard but this is a perfect height. This can be so good. There are. Okay, it's a little bit on the shh. I don't want to say shorter side. The six twos, I'm tall. What players are six two in the NFL? I feel like wide receivers are six two. Maybe some guards are six two, maybe. Halfbacks for sure. Some linebackers are six two. Some big corners and safes are six two. I almost think we go half back here, right? How's Derrick Henry? I'm kind of worried that Derrick Henry is six three. I said I want to bruise her half back this season. So tallest half back in the league is Derrick Henry at six foot three. The only good six foot two half back I could find is this man right here, Edger and James. I like Edger and James. I don't like him that much.   I want to Jesse Bates. I do have a really good option though. All right, right now our only corner is PS2. That is not going to cut it.  There is an awesome, awesome, awesome card. Charles Tillman peanut six foot two, two 10 corner with 97 speed, 99 press, 95 man, 97 zone. His jumping is incredible. I think he's a good return man too. 420,000 coins for Peanut Tillman. This is our best six foot two option for sure. I was kind of thinking about CD lamb, but we're just too strong in the wide receiver position group. I can't be doing CD lamb right now. Now he is an AKA player, so he gets bottleneck AKA crews. It starts on for six plays. You dominantly win press man attempts. It's just not something that I do a lot. So we're going to switch this to universal coverage AKA crews. You can improve coverage and catch knockouts in man and zone. This is significantly better.  Deep out zone KO for one. You could go pick artist or mid zone for zero. I have heard insane things about mid zone KO, but I'm still going to rock pick artist. Deep out zone KO is amazing. Pick artist, one AP. This was absolutely the right call. So now PS2 has a buddy who's also super tall. We're still raw dogging free safety and corner three, as well as half back. If I can get a half back and free safety, I think we're going to be all right. All right, gentlemen, second wheel spin. The name of the game is half back or free safety. If we can get either of those, this will be an excellent wheel spin. Well, obviously I can get either of those, but the only gold 99 ultra legend in the game right now is Tiki Barber, who is obviously a half back, but I don't want Tiki Barber.  He said, you're dead to me. All right, how about this? How about this? If we get Tiki Barber every time he fucks up, we have to say Tiki Barber, you're dead to me. 85 truck, 93 brake tackle. Ooh, he's good though. God damn, he's good. Are my backfield consists of Warren Moon and Tiki Barber? I don't know how I feel about that, but gold 99 Tiki Barber, it is really hard to pass on that, especially when he's the only gold 99 ultimate legend in the entire game. It's got to be done, gold 99 Tiki Barber. Let's see what discount abilities he gets. He is listed as an illusive back. I'm obviously going to rock freight train. Backfield master. Okay, we have hot rod master, so we don't actually need that. A zero AP jukebox is a beautiful thing. A zero AP grab and go.  That's it. All right, gold 99 Tiki Barber, as well as peanut tilman. I really do think if we can get a free safety, we could, we could squeak out a win here. It's not going to be pretty. Last game definitely wasn't. Oh no. Oh no is probably not the right thing to say there. This is a good wheel spin. It's not what we need right now. There is no safeties in the NFL honors promo. I also am not allowed to get the limiteds here. I can get the lower edition, but there is one player who if I've had my eyes on this entire season and I've never got to use it. In fact, he was almost a prestige. I almost prestige this man over Nick Boso and he would not have been a bad prestige at all. And that's Miles Garrett. So we can't get the 97 Miles Garrett. If I ever get a pack of punch, I can use it on this, get the 97. We can take 96 overall Miles Garrett. 64, 92 speed, insanely good stats. It's still an incredible card. We're going to put him across from Nick Boso, but that means we will be rocking a silver free safety in this game, which is so unbelievably bad. All right, 96 Miles Garrett. I assume you get some nice abilities, right? Maybe the 96 doesn't have any discounts, but we're about to find out. No, he does. No outsiders for free. Let's go. This is a nasty card actually. Don't need to run any abilities. Oh, that's a great card. That Miles Garrett is a great card. Here's my biggest issue with the team right now. I love running the football. I don't have a lead blocker.  I don't have half an offensive line. So that's, I really want to be able to do something about that. I just can't right now. I have to put in a silver at free safety. I'm going to put in Anthony Johnson Jr. 76 speed, 80 Excel, six foot two. All right, gentlemen. With it all said and done, we're rocking an 88 overall team, 88 on offense, 93 on defense. We are significantly better on defense. All right, gentlemen. The biggest issue right now is we're 0-1. We fall to 0-2. We are in a lot of trouble. Remember that three losses resets our Wheel of Mutts season. It has happened before where I've lost the three straight games and it literally, we just reset. The challenge wheel, which I couldn't complete last episode would have been huge. In the event of a loss, a completed challenge wheel can salvage a wheel spin. Oh, I'm getting shafted.  We need to average more than five and a half yards per carry with our halfbacks. So, good news. We picked up gold 99 Tiki Barber. Bad news. We don't have an offensive line. We have Trent Williams and Homeless Man. Oh, that's his team. PS2, Micah Lamar. Okay, I like it. Jedis Sartan and there's a new member of the top three, Peanut Tillman. There's a lot of weight on Tiki Barber's shoulders right now. Let's just say that. All right, gentlemen, here we go. Taking on Lamar in the Raiders' Unis. He's going to heave one. That is a... Oh my God, Peanut Tillman just about had the craziest debut. That was a horrible ball. He's looking like Bryce Young out there. I know where he's looking. Ah, damn it. Nice play. Oh, come on, McFadden. All right, I'm going to hop on Gronk here for this play. We've got somebody in the flats. Oh. Oh, Drake Greenlaw was so close. Oh, he was so close. He wants hat back. No, he wants this. Yes. Yes! Somebody's going to get him, Peanut Tillman. He will not be denied his interception. Okay, with our challenge wheel. Please don't tell me this is just like last episode. Okay, so we're going to get a poverty range quit swim, but we can't count that towards our record. Range quit wheel here. We can't count the win, but hopefully we can get a really solid player to make up for it. Not what we want right there. There's a lot of stuff on that wheel that's a lot better than that. That's okay. That's okay. One pack from the store. It's going to give me the best chance to get a free safety. Honestly, let's not complicate this. AKA crews, these packs are really good. They're probably the only packs I even like in Madden right now. Start with Grover Stewart. Truly does not help us at all. That's a bummer. Second is an AKA. Section pretty though. R. Okay, I'm really excited about the 93 Henry, and I'm really excited about you already got it. No way. Pack luck is OP right now. All right, that's huge. Starting blockbuster players, but damn, that's quite helpful. So our record is still 0-1-1. Same challenge wheel. I just got a couple freebies to add to this team, and we'll go get a real game under our belt. So Hunter Henry, the backup tight end. We've got Sam Laporta, Hunter Henry.  We got Shamari Connor with 91 speed, 90 Excel, 90 man, 91 zone. That is a perfectly well-rounded card. Takes us up to 89 overall. Not bad. We've got Lattimore Troy Aikman and the Ray Lewis. Jefferson Surtan Peanut Tillman.  All right Troy Aikman, what do you got buddy? We're taking on the Dallas Cowboys. Last time the Lions played the Cowboys, it was not a fun time to say the least. Lions defensive playbook does not have the sauce. Let's just call it how it is. He's gonna try and pick this up with a run. No, he's not. Really? He's gonna go check down. Yep, yep, yep, yep, yep, yep. Oh, I thought that was Derwin.  Damn, that's okay. It was a monster hit though. I don't think he runs this ball. So I'm gonna float to the middle here.  Damn, hop on Patrick Surtan here. Ooh, finds a tight window. And unfortunately I couldn't switch on the Derwin there for the hit stick because there was just too many players for me to choose Derwin. Definitely had a chance though. I'm gonna hop on Ray Lewis. He's kind of lighting me up right now. Oh, do it, do it, do it, do it. Derwin, Derwin, Derwin James has got it. How much can we get out of this return? Good, go left. Derwin James, house call. Wait, do I need anything on the challenge wheel? No, we take it. We take it, let's go. 95 yard pick six. Dude, and now he's gone. He just took a little lag. Dude, at some point I gotta put like a limiter on the rage quit wheel. How many times are we gonna do this today? All right, we got another rage quit. This one, damn it. We're not actually getting shafted. This is plus three to one O linemen. Shaft is the wrong word. This ain't bad because right now we have 89 as Reclive Linden. I can put a plus three on him. I can take any 92 overall left guard in the game. This is not the end of the world. Well, what did we say at the start of the episode? Beggars can't be choosers. Brecky Hull can ride me whenever she wants. Something like that. Ben Powers or Juice Scruggs? I'm actually bringing back a guy we used to have Russ Grimm because he has discounted Lynchpin. He has some really good ability. That's why he's expensive. Yeah, he gets Lynchpin for one stronger blocking from all O linemen. This is specifically on run plays, which actually be really good for our challenge wheel right now. So I need to take one AP off of somebody taking gift wrapped off of Warren Moon. Tiki Barber, Justin Jefferson, PS2. Justin Jefferson, Ronde Barber. Legerious sneak. They're not related, are they? They're identical twin brothers. He's the identical twin brother of Tiki Barber. Dude, how can you be identical twin brothers and play such vastly different positions? I was gonna say, is this a Titans theme team? I don't think it is. He's got William Perry quarterback here, gentlemen. He's also got Brock Bowers, who he might throw to. Questionably, oh, good defense. We gotta be cautious of the run here. Just try and pick up the first down. Goes with an RPO and it's bagged. Derwin James, mid zone KO. Says not today, fourth and three. Might try and do the same thing. I don't think he runs this. RPO, RPO, oh no. That's not me. I saw RPO. I ran down to the pass option. He does hand it on. Standard pass play, got a whip route, got a check down. Nice window. Get home. That's what I'm talking about.  Dude, Peter Tillman can hit.  Deja Vu, gentlemen, back to fourth and three. I think I'm gonna go mid blitz. Or no, I'm gonna fake mid blitz. I'm gonna fake mid blitz. Oh my God, he's taking it. He has taken his points. I don't know if I believe this. This is a thing. Wow, okay. Takes his three on the opening drive. That's a win in my books. If we're gonna run with Tiki Barber, it's gotta be open. I really like how this looks on the left side. Beautiful. Nasty juke animation too. So technically he has the challenge wheel already. That was 12 yards on the opening drive. If I never ran in the ball, we would complete the challenge wheel. I don't really wanna do that though. Sam Laporte is so open. Look at Warren move. That's not Bryce Young back there, fellas. Third and two, keep this simple, throw right into a knockout. Starting in tight man coverage. I think I can hit Tiki right over the middle actually. Maybe not, because he's got my head blanketed. That was so bagged. That drop was a huge, huge bummer and he's got the ball back. He's got the deep out route. Does he throw it? No, it throws to Derek Henry.  Drake Greenlaw, third and 12. He definitely sees something he likes. I'm gonna blitz Chimari Connor. Didn't mean to do that. I like it. I really like it. Stay up strong. Ball. I'm so loaded with defensive talent and I am so lacking on offensive talent. How do I beat this man coverage? So I'm trying to figure out. Oh, I have it.  I just had a wide open Sam Laporte. He's only sending three, but he's dominating. I mean, it's really not that shocking. Of course he's dominating them.  I should have a little bit of time. Yes, there's Tiki Barber. Trying to keep these reads really simple.  My line is so bad. This is gonna be tough. Gotta get my wide receivers a little more involved for sure. Why did you?  Why is that still a thing? It's just, it's literally just like last game. Why is this still a thing? Why on God's green earth? When I ever, I'm giving Jamar Chase a slant and halfway through his route where he's gonna be open, he chops down and does a hitch.   First 10. He's wide open too. If he just runs the slant that I gave him. It's not even a real route.  Okay.   I just watched three people all bite on the same.  You guys can just take a peek. I'm scared to even put anyone on a slant right now. There's a beautiful route right there out of San Laporta. Makes a nice juke, three for six. War and Moon by the way, War and Moon's playing a great game. San Laporta, another beauty. Second to 10, line collapsed on that one.  I don't even wanna watch back what just happened there.  I'm just gonna give Tiki Barber a little bit of space. Fourth and eight. I almost wanna take my field goal. I'm taking my points here. We get, did we get ball at half? I don't remember what happened on that opening drive. He wants the corner route. Oh, I love it. He wants the corner route! Stay in! Good! Massive. I'd like to score before the two minute one. That'd be the best case scenario here. That is huge. That's so big. Let's go, Peanut. Peanut Tilden's a monster. We could take that away from today's games. Beautiful. It's exactly what I, ah, it's not the best ball. Did they patch this game since I got to Hawaii?  Got him. Maybe. Ah! It's Sam LaPorta. That's a 6-3 tight end, boys. Emotion good went over for a corner route, I think. No, for a slant. It's a good slant. Steps up in the pocket, gets grilled. Ooh, this time it goes down to Dre Greenlaw. Ha, ha, ha! Okay. Oh, fourth and 28. He's gotta punt this. He's gonna use all the clock he can here, but we retain, oh my God. He, can he kicks it with 13 on the clock? That's a bad decision. 10 into 10, we are turning this game around one step at a time. Gotta take this. Cause I can't risk throwing an interception to Micah. The thing is, I literally can't run the ball. Like, I literally can't run the ball because I have no abilities to stop double inside stuff. He has double inside stuff and double no outsiders. Really gotta simplify this. Oh God, that's a bad ball. Jamar Chase, whip route.   He's got 10 open yards up the field to secure the first down.  It's knocked out. I'm actually gonna break something and he gets the ball back.  Just give, just give him the win.  Honestly. He's gonna pass it to Derek Henry, I think. Oh, I knew it. You can catch that, that's fine. Derek Henry contested, catch is fine. Jamar Chase wide open, nope. Hell yeah, field goal here, make it 13 to 10 and then we take back over on offense. It's good to note how effective the Jamar Chase whip route was, like it was open. I'm bad for not making it. Look at the whip.  It's the same thing. It's the exact same thing.  Let's see if Jamar Chase will actually run a slant or if he'll decide to chop this one down.  All right, Tiki, that was nasty, buddy. I need more of that, and we're gonna get cooked. Can it be made? It can be made. I repeat, oh, it was good accuracy. That's why, guys, I have to throw a bad ball to hit a whip route. Please no knockouts, nice work. I do think La Porta can get open on a corner out, though. Nope, but Tiki can.  Jamar, beauty. Ooh, done bunch, Y-Flex dagger, and then just make the substitutions and the adjustments that we need to win this ball game. Just gonna do the same thing with Micah, but I can go right back to La Porta. Trent Williams just got bodied back there. That's shocking. La Porta, gotta take it. I want this one bad. I still have my challenge wheel, too. We have one single run today with our half back. He got 12 yards on it. If you're wondering why I'm not running the ball, that was a 13-play, five-minute drive. Beautiful. If you're wondering why I'm not running the ball, it was a miracle that I got the yards that I did. I can't stop his abilities. Two inside stuffs and a no outsiders. It was honestly just lucky that I got it in the first place. I'm not risking a TFL and ruining my yards per carry. If I had a three-yard TFL right now, I would have two carries for nine yards, which would be four and a half yards per carry on my half back. I'd love to run the ball if I had a better row line, though. He's going five wide. We're at Tampa two. It's a little scary against five wide. He's got him. Shit, good play, please. Guess pass. Ooh, he's so lucky that's a bad ball. I had it, baby. I don't know. I feel like I had that. I don't know. Okay. Expected a juke. Let's get somebody in the flats. I hate not Blitzy Nygmosa, but I have to cover to Eric Henry. Okay, RPO, bodied. Great defense gets the RPO, second and nine. Oh, let's hold him up right here, boys. Wouldn't that be nice? He slides down? What? How do you even do that?  I didn't even know that was possible. Oh no, he's got a whip on him. That's fine, because that's bad. I'm shocked he even caught that. Fourth and 17. From the 24, he's taking it. He's taking the field goal. Okay, this game is not even close over.   He's really struggling with this combo here. Sam Laporta, Jamar Chase, because he's trying to use her mic. You. Okay, I don't need to. Just go Sam, stay in bounds. The good news is if he takes Barber, it leaves everything else. Yep, he leaves Barber, gives me Laporta every time. Barber, first down. Bulk Aeroconservative, can't lose on something like that. All right, now we force him, we force him to take Barber with Micah Parsons. Oh, he doesn't, thanks for me. I just, it just sucks that you can't juke there. Not being able to juke there is actually pretty big. Oh no, it was under pressure, bad ball. I almost want him to score this.  I don't know if he gets that anyway, but I pass led that Bulk across from him. That's huge and obviously really bad. He might run this, I go Derek Henry. Get there. Minute 38, five point ball game. It's still in my hands. I'm gonna give Tiki Barber a route so he has to respect it. I'm gonna let Sam Laporta get open. Yep, beauty. Get out of bounds. Warren Moon is so much better than Bryson. He's so much better. Still, he's whipping passes, but he's so much better. Whip route, Sam Laporta.  Let's see if he wiseens up to the whip route. And does he go cover that now?  I gotta use more clock though. I gotta get this to no time left, he has no time outs. Literally, that's just to keep the clock running. Get a yard and the clock ticks, beautiful. I think what's gonna end this game is a corner route out of Jamar Chase. However we get in the end zone now, it doesn't matter. Tiki, little sketch knocked out, that's fine. Second and goal, 10 seconds left. Oh my God, it's just like last game, isn't it? It's just like last game, isn't it? I wonder if Jamar Chase could actually burn his man on a whip route and I could end the game like that. I haven't looked at Jamar too often today. Let's look at him now. Not Jamar, I met Justin Jefferson. They're saying the wrong name. Okay, knockout doesn't change that much. Quinn Johnson redemption, they're in goal. Six seconds, snap. Quinn Johnson. I'm going with a run play for two. If I get it, great. If I don't, whatever. I can't fumble, I got ball carrier conservative. We can take this up the middle. Yeah, see, that right there, by the way, is exactly why I can't run the ball. That's exactly why I can't run the ball. One point lead, four seconds. I really need to force him to kick return this.  Quinn Johnson, legacy. Yo, can we talk about how he rocked me too though? Like, technically can he get in field goal range in time or is this like a true? I guess it's basically him, Harry. That actually was so sketchy. I had peanut garden two dudes over there. That was actually utterly insane. I've never earned it so hard. Let's talk about this game, these stats. War and Moon is a dog. Bryce Young could literally never. Three touchdowns, two interceptions.  We had a chop down starter slant for what? And then the throw where Mike intercepted it. It was a good defensive play. Under pressure throughout the pass, but still a good defensive play. His William Perry could not get cooking. 302 and three touchdowns, go War and Moon. Barber, one for 12, 12 yards per carry. He ran the ball two times for 11 yards. And then of course he somehow took himself down.  Justin Jefferson, four for 26. Jamar Chase, three for 24. Jamar Chase would have so much more if those whip routes weren't so wonky.  That's how bad I was getting dogged over there. An interception out of Gronk, an interception out of Peanut Tillman's interception was really, really good. Look at this man. So I hot route Jamar Chase onto a slant. Why would he ever do that? What is compelling him to do that? This was a huge bummer because this one's different. Tiki Barber's got a few steps on Michael and I'm gonna lead the ball. I don't think he intercepts this if it's not a bad ball. But War and Moon, wobbler, not how that's supposed to look. Okay, so we keep everybody of course because we won our record moves to one and one. We completed our challenge wheel. 5.5 yards per carry with our half back. So challenge wheel complete. We get one pack of our choice from the store. I'm going with a sugar rush pack for my challenge wheel pack here. We're gonna pick up free safety jack Tatum. Brandon Stevens will be coming back to the lineup and Mackay Bechton, right tackle. That's big.  Ah, it was an insane wheel of mud gentlemen.  I'm so proud of War and Moon. And you know what? Tiki Barber was really good too. Tiki Barber was a huge, huge help for that team. All right boys, I love you. Amazing episode. And I can't wait to see you guys in the next one. One and one, lion's season. Peace out boys.


In this video, I'm going to do a couple short demos of decision trees in scikit-learn in a Jupyter notebook, and then we'll talk about begging. So what we're going to do here is build a decision tree on a simple dataset. I'm going to, of course, import numpy scikit-learn and the tree sub-package of scikit-learn, and we're going to plot some things in matplotlib. So to make some sample data to play with, I'm going to take 20 random points in a normal distribution around negative 1, 0, and make those green, and another 20 points around 1, 0, and make those magenta. So if we look at this picture, it looks something like this. Now what we want to do is build a decision tree which can classify green versus magenta. So what I'll do is I'm going to, of course, use the cross validation and training testing split tools in scikit-learn, and we will break that dataset against only 40 points total into a training and testing set using train test split. The training points, we have 32 of them. Testing points, we have eight of them. So that's 80, 20 split. Now let's instantiate a decision tree classifier from scikit-learn. So that's what I'm going to call T. T, we're going to fit it to the training points. So, of course, we feed it the training points and their corresponding labels. Of course, scikit-learn tells us a little bit about what it's doing. It generates, you know, it has a Gini index, a max depth, and so on. So we can ask it to do that. And actually, since we know how decision trees work, let me set the max depth right away. Let's say max depth is equal to, let's say, four. So if you think about the max depth of a binary tree, that should give us roughly 16 regions, well, up to 16 regions on which we can make decisions. We can predict the value of a new point by, oops, sorry, by giving it an array. Say, if I give it the point 20, I think that's going to be magenta. If I give it the point negative 20, I think that's going to be green. Okay, so what is this actually doing? I'm going to set up kind of a complicated graphing system here, a complicated plot. What I'm really going to do here is show you the training set, and then I'm going to take a grid of points, and 200 by 200 points. And we're just going to color every single point, either green or magenta, as the model tells us. This is going to take a little bit to draw, because it tests all 40,000 points. And this is what it comes up with. It looks kind of weird, right? As a human, you'd say, look, you've got a blob of magenta on the right and a blob of green on the left, and they sort of overlap. But the way the decision tree works, it has to cut linear boundaries that correspond with the axes. So it makes some vertical cut, and then it cuts that half space into smaller pieces, and so on. So these are the cuts it decides to make. Using GraphViz, which is a nice sort of graph theoretic plotting tool, we can look at what it actually is deciding here. So it's first of all making it cut at x0 less than or equal to negative 0.781. That's probably this vertical line right here. It's cutting there. And then, basically, that's true or false. It's going to start subdividing the data more and more and more. So we have an ultimate case of one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight. We've got here nine, I think. Different regions it comes up with. And those come out of this picture. So it doesn't look like nine, because these look contiguous. But in fact, if you think about this, every single vertical horizontal line has to involve some sort of cut. Here, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. I can maybe count. Maybe there's some more refined ones in there. Of course, we can predict on the testing side. It actually does surprisingly well. If we do a cross validation, it does reasonably well. So many percent accuracy. It's not great, but it's okay. Again, the one thing I want to point out in decision trees is that they're very chunky, right? They're very pixelated and prone to overfitting. So let's use a greater tree depth. I'm going to go back and change the tree depth to, let's see, if I've got 32 points, a tree depth of like five or 10. Let's do a tree depth of like nine and see how that comes out. So with a tree depth of nine, look at this. It manages to get essentially every single point correct, but by making some very strange cuts. It made a very small vertical cut right there to isolate that one green point. I think that magenta one's on the other side of that line. So by making enough cuts, it's able to exactly classify every single point, but it's obviously overfit because if this green point weren't there or if it moved left or right, it's misclassifying a whole bunch of things. Let's see here. If you look at the different leaves here, genie index of zero, genie index of zero, genie index of zero, genie index of zero, zero, zero, zero, zero. Yeah, so based on this, it has completely isolated all of the points. They're all perfectly isolated. So this is extremely overfit. Again, the reason I say it's overfit is if you were to jiggle any individual point, the model would change dramatically. If that green point weren't there or if that magenta point were a little bit to the right, you'd have to do a whole different fitting process over here. It's really extremely overfit. And that keeps happening. So if we fit, let's add some more points here. Let's make maybe 200 points like that. So I'm just going to up the data set size here to 200. And let's plot those points. Here's those points. Now if I have a total of 400 points, let's do actually a depth of nine should still do it, shouldn't it? Let's make it do a depth of 10 just to make sure it's clearly overfit. Again, overfitting is bad, but I just want to demonstrate what's going on here. So again, that's the wrong data set. I didn't rerun these segments. All right, let me rerun these. I think I just skipped over a couple segments here. There are 320 points. Sorry about that. It always happens to the Jupyter Notebook because you forget to rerun a block. So here you can really see overfitting happening. Obviously by random chance, there's some magenta points here and there. And with a tree depth of, what was it, nine or 10 that I just put in? With a tree depth of 10, you can get 1,024 different subregions here. And man, you know, it's really trying to get every single magenta and green point isolated. It's trying really hard and that's just absurd. And there's no reason you should have a model that fits that tightly to these individual random points. So decision trees are fairly simple. They're fairly dumb. They overfit very easily. Let me demonstrate a similar phenomenon now for regression trees. So let's do a regression tree, again, using a tree for regression. And again, to be able to visualize it, I'm going to have one input variable and one output variable. So let's make sort of a sine wave here. If you look at how I generate this, I took a 100 points from 0 to 4 pi. And I took their sine and then add a little bit of noise to it. A little, you know, 20% noise to the signal. And let's plot that. It looks like this. So it's a sine wave. Now we're going to fit a decision tree regressor to this. And let's use a max of the tooth that we can see the tree. So we're going to cut this in half and then in half again. Again, not really half, but cut it and then cut each of those again to do a fit. And let's plot that. Here's the plot. So it cuts somewhere and then it cuts somewhere else and cuts somewhere else. So I put this as line segments. But you can see, you know, it's at this cut, it's taking that average. At this cut, it's taking that average and so on. If you look at the actual decision tree itself, it's cutting at x0, that our variable is 2.96. So it's cutting about here and then it's cutting at 0.8 and so on. And each time is trying to minimize the error, the mean squared error on that subregion. And that's how it's choosing these cut points. Now we can get a better model if we increase the depth. So let's do a depth of, I don't know, let's do a depth of 6. So roughly 2 to 6 different things. And here, again, you really see the overfitting happening. Because of a couple of outlining points, it's making the model jump up and down to try to fit those points. So this is what overfitting looks like if you're doing regression. It's trying to fit each individual point. Some of them, it skips because it doesn't quite have enough depth. But if we make the tree depth even higher, let's say a tree depth of 10, that's extremely overfit. It's trying hard to hit every individual point by slicing and taking a new average. So how do we improve this overfitting problem? Well, there are three main tools. One is called begging, which is short for bootstrap aggregating. That's a portmanteau that kind of irritates me, to be honest. But it's bootstrapping, or in other words, taking a subsample and averaging them. There's random forests, which is a more clever way of doing that begging process, where you avoid them interacting too strongly. And then there's boosting, where you grow the tree layer by layer, gradually, only focusing on things that were previously wrong in such a way that you're gradually building a model. So the idea is that the slower you learn, the less you're going to overfit, or at least the less quickly you will overfit. So now let me show a very simple idea of begging. And I'm not going to use any fancy library here, I'm just going to have it work by hand. Okay, so I'm going to set up a very similar system. Import numpy, import scikit-learn, matplotlib, et cetera. In fact, this time I'm going to restart this so that we know how it's going to run. I'm going to do a similar model, so 100 random points between 0 and 4pi, and add some noise to a sine wave. So here is our signal. Here's the training set. We're going to do a regression tree. So here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to take those 100 points, and I'm going to make samples from them. I'm going to draw samples. I'm going to draw samples of each bag with replacements. I'm going to call these bags, since the process is called begging. So of the numbers from 0 to 99, I'm going to draw 33, draw 33, and draw 33. And notice I'm doing this with replacement. So I'm allowing something to occur in bag 2 that was also in bag 1. And now of those three samples, subsamples, I'm going to make their predictors and responses arrays. So I have x1, y1, x2, y2, x3, y3 are the three different bags of training data. To each of those bags, I'm going to fit a decision tree. So I've got tree 1, tree 2, and tree 3. Now each of those trees can predict a value. So if I want to average those bootstrap samples, all I have to do is take each of their predictions and average them. So I'm going to make a consistent testing set, which is equally spaced points from 0 to 4 pi. Let's take 1,001 of them. Let's apply each of the three tree models to that testing data. And we will simply take their outputs and average them and call that y hat bagging. So if we do that and we plot the different models, this is a little confusing to look at, but we have the sort of pink model, the green model, and the blue model. These are the three individual models that came from a tree on a random subsample, a bootstrap sample. And if we average the values of those three different regression trees, we get the black regression curve. Now the idea here is that because the green, the pink, and the blue were built on different subsets of the data, or subsets of the data may or may not be the same. They may overlap, but they don't have to. They're fairly unlikely to overlap very much, of course. But it should in some sense wash out the overfitting. At the same time, it also is actually sort of an enhanced model in the sense of intervals, because in this case I built them all of depth four, so they each have like 16 different intervals at most. But if you think about it, if I average 16 different trees, which are cut at different points, then, so for example this, because of where green and pink and blue cut at different points, you can get more refined information in black. Now that might lead to overfitting like it sort of does right here. But typically, as you know from statistics, if you have three identically and independently sampled random variables, say x1, x2, and x3, if you take their average, the variance goes down by the number of samples you've taken. That would be three. So in a theoretical sense, the variance of the bootstrap model, of this begging model, being the average of three other models of all the same variance, should have a third of the variance. So we expect the variance to go down in the begging model. So that's all the begging is. It's simply taking bootstrap samples of your data, that's different samples with replacement, making a model in each one of those, and then averaging those models. You can do the same thing for classification. Of course, what do you mean by averaging and classification? You usually interpret that as voting. So if you have three different bootstrap models drawn from your data, then if they have like a green versus blue decision to make, you'd simply ask them to, on any import point to vote green versus blue, and to the three win. So averaging for decision is essentially voting. And with that's plurality voting, it's more sophisticated that serve up to you, but the notion still makes sense of sort of averaging the sub-models. The other methods, which are random force and boosting, are a little bit more sophisticated. But in the end, they come down to the same basic idea of taking bootstrap samples and trying to somehow combine them in a way that's useful and decreases variance.


It's Christmas Eve in LA and New York City cop John McClane is heading home for the holidays To most that summary would seem like a Christmas movie yet 30 plus years later this debate is still being had Today, I'm here to settle this shit once and for all Because some writer or actor said the film is or isn't a Christmas movie But because I can clearly see the evidence on display If you are for some reason one of the Lost Souls watching that doesn't agree We'll sit back and let me and mr. McClane drop some knowledge on you Welcome to the party pal indeed Before I really run through diehard and tell you exactly why it's a Christmas film. We first have to decide What is a Christmas film? What is the definition in your eyes? Is it the holiday music? Is it the Christmas food? Is it the family values? Perhaps a winter setting Christmas phrases holiday references? the gifts What if I were to tell you diehard has every single one of those things and more? Let's begin the movie doesn't waste any time telling the audience. It's a Christmas film John McClane enters the airport with a gift for his wife. It's a bear with a red bow on it red bow Christmas it's already there. We're already getting started.  You can hear the whimsical bells present in the music It's a brilliantly composed score by Michael Cayman He's gonna go ahead and incorporate several holiday songs into this music songs such as let it snow let it snow and Winter Wonderland owed to joy is also prominently featured and last time I checked Christmas is a pretty joyous occasion. We are mere minutes into this video And we've already had several key components to a holiday film and just straight-up callouts to Christmas itself Not to mention that the main plotline involves John McClane heading to LA for a Christmas party a Christmas party not much after the airport scene Holly Gennaro is conversing with her co-worker Ellis She throws out several Christmas staples such as Rudolph the red-nosed reindeer Frosty the snowman and a roaring fire She then calls the house to talk to the kids and the nanny the house is chock full of festive decorations and trinkets There's even some on the ledge right next to Holly as she's talking She even mentions Santa Claus and tells her daughter not to go snooping for presents. Look It's one thing if Christmas is maybe five or ten minutes of the intro here And then we go to another day or week or time, but no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no This whole film is structured around Christmas. You take away the Christmas. You take away the die-hard charm I will point out that when she's done talking to Paulina. She hangs up on her very abruptly. What would I do without you Paulina? There's no goodbye. There's no happy holiday. There's no I'll see you tonight.  Well, is that how you say goodbye to someone? Nothing to do with any of this just I just found it kind of rude very just a weird weird scene to end on Weird weird no to end on let's keep going seven minutes and 45 seconds in Argyle The limo driver puts on some tunes Spoiler it's another Christmas song and you might be confused because there's some hip-hop rap going on and that doesn't seem like the Holiday spirit well John McLean also agrees with you and points it out in which Argyle responds You're all right Argyle John enters Nakatomi Plaza It's a pretty drab entrance. The only thing really lighting it up is the massive Christmas tree in the corner You think they keep that thing up all year long or do you suppose it's for a special occasion? It's not Easter Not Thanksgiving As John McLean heads to the elevators we can hear him whistling jingle bells Wow, while I'm sure it's not uncommon for some to whistle jingle bells outside of the holiday It's also not normal and those people are probably mentally deranged 11 minutes into the movie and we are slammed with more Christmas references more Christmas trees people dressed up for the holiday and an overly friendly Californian plants a mistletoe kiss right on John McLean's cheek. We already talked about one Christmas present the bear, but there's more Show them the watch Yeah, it's a Rolex and if those aren't big enough presents for you. Well, we can talk about the main prize of this whole thing I'm talking about the six hundred and forty million dollars worth of negotiable Barabans hidden side of mr. Takagi's vault while there is no official Christmas feast in this film We do have a nice sit-down with mr. Hans Gruber and some of the office staff He has it made himself a nice plate of some of the appetizers in the corner We have a nice spread on the table and he's helped himself to it The hors d'oeuvres scene is immediately followed up by the most Christmas thing in the film McLean sends down a season's greetings in the form of a dead terrorist along with the festive message now I have a machine gun The gift exchange might not have gone according to plan for some But it was a gift exchange nevertheless 45 minutes into the picture we get treated to Sergeant Al Powell who's humming some Christmas music He exchanges merry Christmas pleasantries and he's on his way still singing let it snow let it snow When the cops show up we get a very nice rendition of twas the night before Christmas Which features four assholes coming in the rear and standard two-by-two cover formation One hour and 28 minutes into the movie Theo tells his boss Hans that they're gonna need a miracle to pull off this heist Gruber cheerfully points out that it's Christmas. It's the time for miracles and to be a good cheer Mmm It's a Christmas movie the final confrontation ends with John McLean gift wrapping his own gun He unwraps this present moments later and fires off two maids of milking at the villains The movie closes with a warp embrace of our couple a heartfelt hug from a new friend and once again Let it snow closing out the picture the only thing the movie doesn't feature is snow, right wrong We get the imagery of it falling from the sky in the form of negotiable Barabans floating down from the heavens speaking of heavens. Maybe that's the problem There's no mention of that little baby Jesus the dude that was on the cross sacrificed himself Isn't there though because I'm pretty sure Jesus Christ is uttered multiple times in this picture The movie didn't come out in December Adam. Well, you know what? It's Christmas in July The trailer says that plain as day and now we're getting into semantics really who cares when the movie was released That has nothing to do with anything not every Christmas movies released in December You don't watch Christmas vacation in the summer. It feels wrong. It feels dirty But diehard it found a way to marry both an awesome action spectacle and the wonderment of the holiday season you take away all the Christmas extras and you're still left with a solid action movie, but it's not elevated the Christmas is Paramount to this movie's success. You put it in a Thanksgiving setting or an Easter setting. It just doesn't work We have family squabbles in this film something. That's pretty staple in Christmas movies We have forged friendships and mended relationships If the definition of a Christmas film to you is that bullshit thrown out on Hallmark every year You know all those churned-out garbage films where it's typically a wife Candace Cameron comes to mind trying to cope with the fact that her husband's off at war and probably won't get back in time for Christmas then I guess this isn't the rant for you and diehard certainly isn't the movie for you You don't deserve it.   I am here for the creativity I'm here for Christmas in a fun exciting way. Yeah, we have our Christmas vacations. We have our elves But we also have our diehards our gremlins. You can have your frosty the snowman and your Rudolph the red-nosed reindeer I'll take the wrath I'll take a lethal weapon film diehard is a Christmas movie I meticulously broke down scene by scene why it is all of the elements are in play Nothing is amiss and if you still can't see it shame on you. You're lying to yourself This is me closing the book on a 30-plus year debate Yippee-ki-yay, Merry Christmas. It's done. It's over Let me know in the comments your thoughts on diehard if it's Christmas film why this debate still going on It's ridiculous and we'll all move on with our lives Like the video if you agree with me. I don't think there's dislikes anymore on YouTube I don't I didn't have anything to do with that. I didn't call up YouTube Jeremy YouTube and say hey, it's it's Adam from yeah, of course Adam does movies. I'm super popular Not even 60,000 subscribers. Please subscribe as well. Please subscribe and Happy holidays. We'll see you soon with more Christmas.   You made it to the end This is where I tell you about my patreon and it's just in time for the holidays You can join me for as little as a dollar a month at patreon.com Adam does movies or if you're feeling extra generous right here on YouTube via the join button It shows some support. It says Adam. I love what you're doing. Here's my gift to you You've been giving me presents all year long It's time to return the favor and I would appreciate that I have I have kids to feed I have kids that are spoiled and need more garbage under the tree because that's what Christmas is all about, right? Or something. I don't know. Just just please please do what you can take care