Duel Auditorial. Stamina Marina Duel Auditorial. Tom Carter with Ken and Pika. The both is the Legion. Kit Kanzer. Little fine, fine crowns of silver. Tom Brady with his 25th as the case unit is technical. Jamonte the Welch. Dueling the Walshu Langen. And she has the fives. Walker, you have won one of the Super Crackers, sorry. And then it was Argo Montes, the Mariners, out of five, the only victim left. Those are nine chasing remains in the 17 Hitpacks below. Kicking Hitpacks, get a chance to win. Not only in the mini-holid, but we're gonna give away $1,500 of wax. You choose from a case with hard cards, with a box with sterling. You choose four boxes with the granular origins, or if you choose two boxes in person, how would you ask for $1,500 to do like 750 in each box? So if you see them, we're gonna give you $1,500 plus. You guys wanna trade some Wendy? Do you have packs, $74 of the pack, or $269 of the box? You wanna run over to the other room and tell Danny that we're live? Yeah. Thanks. Nice. Let's go, Danny. Hi everyone, Joe for Jasmine's Case Wrakes, dot com, one more break, 2023 Bowen Sterling Baseball, one box, random division, number nine. Big thanks to Danny for finishing it off. Late at night. Michael, thanks for grabbing the first spot. Both of you have a chance at an extra spot. So let's roll it, randomize it. Three into three, six of the hard way. One, two, three, four, five, six. Rex, you buy four spots. You buy four spots on a Sterling break, Sterling break divisional, which you've never done. And I'll stay up late for you. All right, so after six times, Danny, last spot, Mojo, and the extra spot. So you've got five of the six divisions. There are the divisions right there. Let's roll it, let's randomize it. Four and a five, nine times each. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, and ninth and final time. Five and a four, four and a five, nine times with the divisions. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, and a ninth and final time. AL West, down to the NLEs. I don't think Michael is here. Danny, so no trade window. But Danny, you have all the divisions except for the NL Central. So let's sort by division, let's box these up. Let's print and rip. Oops, there you go. Well, there is definitely monster potential in here, which is also why I was a little eager to see what was inside. There you go, Joe. And this is a fairly quick break.  You can do that. Good luck, Michael, good luck, Danny. Be hiding right there. Here are, oh, I've reset my computer, so now I have to reset the camera settings here. Configure the video, set that right about there. There you go, Justin Crawford, blah, blah, blah, blah. Jayce Young, if you want to grab a plastic tub too, that'd be great. And then there is a Bioris Tavares for the Braves. That's going to go to the NLEs. Danny, one for one. I'm going to acetate there. And behind the Tristan Casa 75 out of 99 is a Ricardo Cabrero. Nice, 101 out of 150. That's going to be for the Red Legs. That's the NL Central, Michael with one. Behind Spencer Jones is Samuel Zavala. Nice, Padres. That'll be NL West for Danny, DeCons. And behind Jordan Lawler, which is 35 out of 100, that's pretty cool, is Anthony Gutierrez. AL West for Danny. NL West for Danny. Fifth and final mini box. Thanks, Danny, thanks, Michael. Thanks, everyone. It is, there are the other guys. And behind Christopher Morrell, the rookie card is a Nelson Rada. Angels Auto, AL West, that is for Danny. So Michael got one for his division. Danny got the rest. Not so bad. There you go. There you go. Random division break number nine in the books. Thanks for watching. Thanks for breaking with us, everybody. I'll see you tomorrow. Bye-bye. All right, we're out on Rex and Danny. Now, for reals, have a great night. Appreciate you guys. Remember, Jason on it, one o'clock Pacific, tomorrow with the new releases pre-order now. And I'll tag in at three o'clock Pacific, six o'clock Eastern.


What's happening? It's Shane here and in today's video I am going to be covering seven common myths that I hear over and over again about student loans. At this point I have answered thousands of questions on videos, I've answered hundreds if not thousands of emails, I've consulted with people, I've coached with people and I have heard the same questions over and over again. And it's become obvious to me that there is a lot of myths and misconceptions about student loans that many people believe. And so in this video I am going to try to fix that, make sure you understand student loans and understand exactly what you're getting yourself into if you decide to take them out and go to college. All right so let's jump right into it but first go ahead gently tap that like button and hit the subscribe button. Let's set the goal for this video to 2,000 likes. All right so the first myth and this is the one you hear about in the news all the time is that student loans are likely going to be forgiven by the government. You hear this all the time in the news politicians talk about it especially when they're trying to get elected and they say if you elect me we're going to forgive all the student loans and blah blah blah blah blah. Now I made an entire video about this on why it is highly highly unlikely that student loans are going to be fully forgiven. I would say that there's maybe a 1% chance that that happens and I might be that might be too high honestly. And this is for many many different reasons it would be very messy very difficult to do. There are many people out there who decided to pay off their student loans early it would be very unfair to them because they're the ones who paid it off early and then other people who didn't pay it off you know they would be forgiven and then I mean would you pay the people back who already paid their loans off it would just get extremely messy. And that's probably one of the least reasons that it's very likely not going to happen. Again you can check that video out if you want all of my reasoning on it. Now there is a pretty decent chance that some of the student loans are going to be forgiven so for instance I wouldn't be surprised if $10,000 in student loans was just wiped off forgiven across the board. It's also possible that maybe $50,000 in student loans might be wiped off. What's very likely going to happen is there's going to be some sort of reform in the college and student loan system to where it's not just going completely out of control. It's very obvious that the way the system is set up right now a significant amount of people who take out student loans are never going to be able to pay them off. So this means that the way the system set up right now it's completely unsustainable. So I wouldn't be surprised if something like for instance taking away student loan interest was something that's on the table. So right now the interest rate on undergrad loans is probably somewhere between three to five and a half percent. The interest rate on graduate loans is seven percent sometimes more and I wouldn't be surprised if they did something where they took that interest rate down to zero or at least lowered it. I also wouldn't be surprised if they took away the fact that you cannot declare bankruptcy on student loans. Pretty much any other type of debt out there you can declare bankruptcy on but student loans you can't. So I wouldn't be surprised if we see a lot of changes that have to do with that and again that would probably be an entire video in and of itself but in terms of just wiping out all student loans across the board very very unlikely. Now the number two myth that I hear is if you work in public service you're going to get your loans forgiven easily. Now this is based off of the PSLF or public service loan forgiveness program and basically the way this program works is you work in some type of public service job and you make a minimum payment on your loan for 10 years or 120 months you never miss a payment and at the end of the 10 years you get all of it forgiven. So that's how it's supposed to work in theory. An actual practice though 99% of people who apply to public service loan forgiveness get rejected. So it is very very unlikely that you will be able to get your loans forgiven after the 10 year mark and the main reasons for this is they are just super super picky about what they consider to be public service and you also have to jump through a bunch of different hoops. It's not easy at all. It's even more difficult to do it for 10 consecutive years but that doesn't mean you can't try for it especially in certain types of careers you're going to have a much better chance than 1%.  I've heard this in undergrad even right when I was an undergrad people are like oh I'm just going to do 10 years in PSLF and get my loans forgiven like that's I heard that from a lot of people and the truth is it only works about 1% of the time. Number three on the list and this is a comment that I've gotten on some of my doctoral degree and my master's degree videos and that is graduate school is free. Now this is a comment that I get specifically from PhD students right they'll they'll comment below my video they're like I got a PhD or I'm getting a PhD and I'm not paying anything for it it's completely free and it absolutely is possible if you get a PhD to get some kind of stipend grant or scholarship that pays all of it. However the truth is the average PhD is $108,000 in debt okay all it takes is a simple google search to find this out and if you want me to pop the article up on the screen this is from NCES the National Center of Education Statistics there it is $108,000 in debt for PhDs and no that does not count medical doctors dentists pharmacists etc that is just an education degree a PhD or a doctorate in philosophy. Now when it comes to getting a stipend grant or scholarship that pays for all of your PhD or master's in some cases I highly highly recommend going for that it's much easier to get if you're trying to get a PhD in a STEM degree so science technology engineering and mathematics however it's still possible to get it in other types of degrees as well but that does not mean that everybody is getting that and this shows I mean this is proof right here the average PhD is going $108,000 in debt and I've talked about this in other videos but when it comes to getting a master's from a financial standpoint it can sometimes be worth it when it comes to getting a PhD from a financial standpoint it's almost never worth it yes you do get paid slightly more and there's also a slightly lower unemployment rate but the extra time and money it takes to get a PhD and the opportunity cost that is lost is absolutely not going to be worth it from a financial standpoint now from a personal standpoint if you're somebody who is really passionate about a subject and you want to truly become a master of it and you know move the field forward and discover new things then absolutely that can be worth it but from a financial standpoint almost never worth it and again I go into much more detail in that in other videos that I've made on the channel I made a video that's titled I think should you go to graduate school if you type in graduate school Shane Hummus on google or youtube or if you just type it in on my channel uh should pop up number four myth that I hear you'll be able to pay off your student loans right away now for certain types of degrees this could be true right so if you get an engineering degree you get a high paying job right off the bat you know computer science something like that yeah you're going to be able to pay off your student loans pretty quickly but studies and surveys have showed that the average person takes 20 years to pay off their student loan debt and guys these studies and surveys were from the last 20 years student loans have gotten way worse since then so for us for people who graduated in our generation it's probably going to be more like 25 or 30 years you know you see the salary that you're expecting to make uh after you graduate and in many cases what ends up happening is first of all you're not going to make that salary right away you're going to accept an entry level position that is much lower than that second of all the money that you get you don't realize that first of all tax is going to take a lot out of it and then after that you're going to have a lot of expenses that you probably don't realize and then after that you're probably going to want to start living your life a little bit actually spending money and enjoying yourself and so you think you're going to be able to pay it off right away and if you can that's awesome highly recommended but in most cases you don't and students are going nearly $40,000 in student loan debt and you might think okay i'm making like $50,000 a year i'll do $10,000 a year to that debt i'll pay it off right away but things just don't work that way and the interest is also going to be racking up as well so by the time you pay it off a lot of the time you end up paying twice as much but i can already hear it now number five after 20 years your student loans get forgiven right there are federal programs like the pay as you earn or PAYE program and basically what they do is after 20 years if you have made the minimum payments your student loans do get forgiven but there's a huge catch and a lot of people aren't aware of this but whatever gets forgiven you actually have to pay income tax on that right so just to simplify things if $100,000 gets forgiven and you live in california and you have to pay you know 50 in taxes then that still means you have a tax bill of $50,000 so it's not so straightforward not so simple you have to basically save up extra if you want to go that route so that you can pay all of that tax off now again this is one of those things that maybe they might take away it would be really nice if the government kind of took that tax part away that would make it much more realistic for people to be able to actually pay off their student loans but we really don't know whether that's going to happen hopefully they do but we just don't know number six on the list college is always worth it right college is just a golden ticket to success it doesn't matter what degree you get just go to college get a degree and you're going to be set for life now to be fair this used to be true 20 to 30 years ago and before however in this day and age it absolutely is not true anymore and that's why nearly 50% of people regret getting their college degree and the main reason for the regret is of course these student loans that most people have to take out and that's probably one of the main reasons why people actually have a negative net worth until they're in their early 30s so obviously i talk about this a ton on the channel but it's very important that you make sure that the college degree you're getting is worth it make sure that you have a plan you know what you're getting yourself into don't just go into this blind now another thing that i always hear on the same line is grad school is always worth it and like i mentioned before from a financial standpoint master's degrees can sometimes be worth it but from a financial standpoint phd's are almost never worth it and i talked about this in my videos i do like doctoral degree tier list the best doctoral degrees there are many types of degrees out there where people are going deep into debt and then many of them can't even find a job and then the ones that do find a job it doesn't pay very well and i've also talked about how the phd system in many ways especially when you look at certain types of degrees that are usually in social sciences arts etc it pretty much resembles a pyramid scheme and by that i mean the only people that are actually able to make a living from it are those that are teaching it so there will be professors teaching people who want to become professors and they'll be teaching people who want to become professors etc etc but the only problem is probably only one percent of them are ever going to be able to become a professor and there aren't that many viable jobs outside of teaching and there's even subreddits dedicated to this but a lot of people basically think that the grad school and phd system is essentially a pyramid scheme so no grad school is not always worth it again it's going to have to be a case by case basis and if you want to go to grad school you need to be very very careful i recommend trying to get a stipend scholarship or grant and usually you don't want to do it for the money unless you're going for a professional degree in many cases going for a professional degree like you know md medical doctor pharmacist that sort of thing that can be worth it but you definitely can't make the blanket statement that grad school is always worth it all right so that's all i have for this video go ahead check out my other videos right here i made them just for you hit that like button hit the subscribe button leave the notification bell and comment down below any thoughts comments criticisms etc that you have on the video and i will see you next time


Nancy the third quarter really did the Nets in Cleveland had tremendous energy and Richard We know the defense is gonna continue to be a topic teams will look to take advantage of the Nets weaknesses And the Cavaliers gained a lot of confidence in these two games both games Two of the best offensive performances. We've seen from Cleveland this season Yeah, and the Cleveland Cavaliers Added a lot when they added Jared Allen and they added Tori and Prince We saw that you know, not only in the first game, but in this game tonight But really and truly you the Nets have the attention of the entire basketball community the entire basketball world Not just from the fan standpoint, but from team standpoint and like, okay, how do we match up with this group? How can we beat this team? What are the things that we're gonna need to do to tweak? Our competition level against them and so, you know, these two games really kind of gave a formula for success But the good news is that the Nets also know they know the areas that they need to improve to get where they have to go And Richard you've lived through this playing on teams with big names That also brings a higher scrutiny level. Everybody is watching Everybody's paying attention. Everybody is dissecting your problems and sometimes those problems grow because of all The chatter Steve Nash is well aware of it He talked about it pregame pride on defense how those things must change and for Brooklyn No, Kevin Durant, so this was an opportunity to see Irving and Hardin What were your thoughts on the two of them playing together? Well, it's funny. There was so much conversation and would there be enough Offensive opportunities for the three players. I don't think there's any question of that at this point in time We look at guys like Jeff Green and Joe Harris have actually their offensive opportunities have actually expanded with the quality of talent around them So I don't look at that. It's all about defense. It's all about rebounding Obviously not having Kevin Durant your seven-foot, you know wing player out there hurts your rebounding opportunities But you're going to have to defend and it's going to start with Kevin Durant James Hardin and Kyrie Irving if those guys defend at a good level then this team is going to be a force But that's where the sacrifice is going to come in not on the offensive end But on the defensive end second half of the back-to-back. It's the Miami Heat coming to town It has not been a smooth road so far for Miami We know they have a lot of talent, but they've dealt with a bunch of injuries and Miami right now still looking for its footing here in 2021 Yeah, they're going to be a good team later Understand when we talk about that quick turnover everyone was talking about the Lakers Well the Miami Heat and their young players got a lot of minutes late into the season So for them to have this quick turnaround it was going to be a little difficult in my opinion They didn't have any real additions So that this team was pretty you know set when they showed up to start this year So when you have a couple of injuries some COVID protocol situations and they played a ton of minutes late It's going to be I think they're going to build up as the season progresses It's now a two-game losing streak for the Brooklyn Nets. They'll try to put an end to it against Miami here at Barkley Center


Hi. How are you? Good, how are you? Good, thank you. So I was wondering if I could get some research assistance here. Yeah. I'm writing a paper for my film and gender class, and my professor asked me to get three books for it. Do you know what topic you want to look at? Well, I'm looking at the representation of women in horror films specifically. Yes, that's a great topic. Have you ever searched for books in the library before? No, I haven't. Okay, so the place you want to start is the library website. Okay. Okay, so the best way to do it is to actually type in keywords directly from your research question here. Okay. So you can go ahead and type this in. Okay, so women in horror films? Yeah, so that's great. And actually, if you want to get even more concise search results, you can put and in between each keyword. Oh, cool. I didn't know that. All in capital letters. Yeah, it's actually really cool. So women and horror and film. Yes, exactly. So if you want to go ahead and search. Okay. Perfect. So you can see that we have a lot of results. Do any of these look interesting to you? This one right here looks pretty cool. All right, great. So if you want to go ahead and click on it, we can see which library carries it. And perfect. So it's actually here at this library. Let me write down the call number for you. That's this number right here. What exactly is that? It's essentially the address of the book. So it tells you the location of where it can be found. Okay, cool. So when you get down to the stacks, if you're having any trouble finding it, you can always ask a library staff member. And what's really cool is that in the area where the call number is, there's a bunch of books about the same topic there. So you might find more. Oh, awesome. I didn't hear that. Okay. Well, thank you so much. I really appreciate it. Yeah. Can I help you with anything else? No, I think I'm good. All right, great. Thank you. Yeah, you're welcome. Bye. I'll take this.


I want to begin this series of recordings by giving a short introduction to microsimulation in general and the Tanzania microsimulation model TASMOD in particular. During the course of this presentation we will briefly explore what is microsimulation, then consider what is TASMOD. Rwyf ni'n gynnwys y tasmod yn ddweud, a'r gwerth ddweud o'r tasmod yn y gweithio, ac mae'r ddweud bryd o'r ddweud o'r cyflwyno yn y training. Rwyf ni'n ddweud o'r micro-simulatio. Efallai ychydig yn wirtwnedol, micro-simulatio'r modelau, yw mycro data ar siqaf o'r gyllid o'r mycro unydd o'r holl. A'r amser yn fawr anhel ar gyfer ond finnwys iawn mae'r rôl yn cael pom ar y mycro. Oherwydd, mae'n mycro data sefydliad dda wedi bod yn Y Cwysig am Tasmod, of the case of the case of TASMOD, this is the Tanzania household budget survey and that micro data set contains information on individuals and households has information on family structure, income and expenditure and that forms the base data set on which the micro simulation model works. Now the micro simulation model itself ond, mae'n ddrygu'r gweithio tansynion y cyfnodau, mae'n ffordd gweithio gwybod a'r ddysgu'r cyffredinol a'r ddysgu'r ddysgu'r cyffredinol, yn ei bod yn ymgyrchu'r ddrygu'r ddysgu'r cyffredinol, ac mae'n gofynu'r cyffredinol o'r gweithio ymgyrsiau sy'n gweithio ddrygu'r cyffredinol.  This will become clearer as I think when we go through the way the model works in detail. But basically this power to be able to simulate policy systems is a very good one, because it is not only simulating the current policy situations, ac mae'n gael'r hyffordd yma i gael y cyfle o'ch gweithu o'r sysgol sydd a'i gael ar gŵr curves. Yn hyfin i'n gweithio i'r gweithio, i'w cyffredigau mylion oedd yn ei gweld ar gweithio hyffordd. Mae angen yw'r cyffredigau mylion i gweithio'n gwahanol i'r gyfan hwodraeth, sy'n gynnwys cwestiynau pwysig hynny cael cerddwyd ar y system ond y cyfan y cyfan ymgyrch yn y cerddwyd. Felly, yn y cyfan y cyfan, mae'n ddweud yn cyffredinol. Gwydwyd yn cyfan y cyfan y cyfan y cyfan y cyfan y cyfan y cyfan sy'n cyfan y cyfan y cyfan y cyfan y cyfan y cyfan y cyfan y cyfan can actually look at the difference between switching on the simulation of the various social benefits such as the PSSN benefits I talked about. And then also look at the distribution with the benefits switched off and then therefore be able to look at the extent to which the existing PSSN benefits actually do reduce poverty and inequality. It also allows us to simulate the cost of implementing a particular social security policy reform. So for example we could modify the rules for the basic cash transfer and work out how much that would cost. Or we could introduce a completely new cash transfer such as some kind of transfer for unemployed youth. And we could actually cost out that. And importantly we could work out what would be the impact on poverty and inequality of introducing a new policy or modifying an existing policy. OK. For we actually get to the nitty gritty it's important to actually say something about where TASMOD fits with a broader family of micro simulation models in Europe and elsewhere in Africa. So TASMOD is a static tax benefit micro simulation model which is based on existing EuroMOD model architecture. And EuroMOD has been developed over a 20 year period by Professor Holly Sutherland and colleagues and is currently using over 25 countries in Europe. However it's moved beyond Europe and there is a current collaboration between a number of parties and the United Nations University to bring the EuroMOD platform to Africa and elsewhere in the developing world. So who are the partners here? Well the partners are the University of Essex, UNU Wider and the Southern African Social Policy Research Insights SASPRI. It's a major research programme in which tax benefit micro simulation models for selected developing countries in Africa and elsewhere are in the process of being built and finalised. And the outcome of the work will be a set of models for individual countries and research papers that contain simulation analysis of tax and benefit reforms and we can talk about some of that in relation to Tanzania later. Now SASPRI is working with local partners to develop models for Mozambique, Tanzania and Zambia and SASPRI is also updating SAMOD and NAMOD as part of the southMOD activity and SAMOD and NAMOD are in a sense African prototypes of using the EuroMOD framework. SAMOD was developed by SASPRI ten years ago as part of a programme of work for the South African government to produce a transparent user friendly micro simulation model for South Africa. And NAMOD is a sister micro simulation model that was developed for Namibia around four years ago. OK, TASMOD itself, the Tanzanian model has a standalone user friendly interface which we will look at in a little while. The important thing is that the model workings are transparent and the user has full control over the simulations carried out. So this is really important and it underpins the EuroMOD philosophy and indeed the SouthMOD philosophy that users of this model can actually make the changes themselves and analyse the output themselves. TASMOD does not rely on continual reference back to consultants or others when a government for example wants to test out some particular tax or benefit. The current version of TASMOD version 1.0 is underpinned by the House House Budget Survey 2011-2012 as I think I mentioned earlier and obviously it can be updated with new data and policy reforms when required. So when the 2017-2018 HBS is released then the model can be adjusted so that it becomes updated with the new data set. It also as taxes and benefits change it can be updated with new policy rules. So the first step then in micro simulation is to collect data of the incomes and expenditures of individuals in a representative survey of households. And as I've indicated TASMOD is underpinned by the HBS 2011-2012 and this represents the characteristics of the mainland Tanzania population in 2011-2012. And it is just the mainland population as people here will know. We do want though in due course to be able to produce a system model for Zanzibar and we're beginning negotiations in this regard. Now the HBS 2011-2012 is a representative sample of 46,593 people living in 10,186 households in the Tanzania mainland. And the weights from the HBS 2011-2012 as adjusted are used to calculate national figures from the simulations when we need to calculate impacts on poverty and inequality and cost. The next step is to have a set of policy rules that can be applied to individuals in the data to determine what social transfers they are entitled to and what taxes they should pay. In order to simulate a policy we have to be able to translate the rules into a format that can be understood by the model. So that's one constraint. So the rules need to be in such a form that they can be translated into rules within the model. The second is that the data set needs to have information that will enable us to apply the rules. Now these two things aren't always straightforward. There's often constraints within the data. The data didn't ask particular questions that are necessary to model a policy. And often here we have to make assumptions but we need to just make explicit assumptions that we have applied. In Tasmod we've produced policy rules for the years 2012 and 2015 and that's, we describe as Tasmod version 1.0. We will shortly be preparing the data rules for 2016 and then 2017 all within the course of this year. What are the actual policies that we have implemented? Well in terms of social assistance and social insurance we've implemented the productive social safety net policies, a fixed basic cash transfer and the variable conditional cash transfer. We've also simulated the public works but in this case we've only produced an eligibility flag. And even with those three types of social assistance we've had to make assumptions which we can talk about in questions. We've also simulated the National Health Insurance Fund, both the employer and employee contributions and will in due course be simulating pension contributions. In terms of direct and indirect taxes we've simulated PAYE income tax for those in receipt of income from salaries and wages. Also presumptive income tax which is payable to small traders if their turnover from self employment is less than 20 million tansony and shillings per annum. We've also simulated personal income tax for account cases, these are the self employed whose income exceeds the presumptive tax threshold. We've simulated a limited number of excise duties, in fact those relating to alcoholic drinks, tobacco products and vehicle fuel. In the case of vehicle fuel it also includes the fuel levy. We have also implemented value added tax across the board. But it's important to say that part of this training will be to review any other policies that need to be implemented for 2016 or 2017 and indeed to get your views on the way that we've implemented the policies that we have implemented. And if there are things that don't appear to you to be correct or that could be improved it would be really important to get that feedback because you are the key stakeholders in this. And then we can amend the model to build a better model. And it's important I think at this point to say that model building is an iterative process. I mentioned that SA mod has been going for 10 years and I think progressively over that 10 year period the rules have been refined within the model and the model has got better over time. It's an organic process. We need to get the model to be as good as it possibly can be and it will inevitably be improved over time. OK, we've talked a lot about what TASMOD can do. What can't it do? Well first of all some existing policies aren't simulated and those are not the ones that are not on the policies list that I showed you in the previous slide. Such as pharma subsidies, pensions and pension contributions, though I did mention we will be simulating pension contributions later in the year. It also doesn't simulate changes in behaviour. It's a static micro simulation model which simulates what would happen if the policy rules were as they are specified in the model, the immediate impact of that. And if you change the policy rules it's the immediate impact of the change. It doesn't take into account for example that if you increase cash transfers that might make people more mobile and more able to get jobs and improve their job search and improve their income. That would be a behavioural change which isn't covered by this model. It also doesn't take into account any macroeconomic effects. The focus is on the direct impact on households. However, the output from the model can be used as a starting point for more complex analyses involving behavioural change and indeed even micro-macro linkages. So, for example, in South Africa we used SA-MOD as a tool for forecasting tax and benefit expenditure into the future. The tax benefit expenditure and tax recovery into the future and fed these into a social accounting model. OK, let's now look at TAS-MOD and give an overview of what the interface looks like. For this I'll use these screenshots but I will also show you the actual live model itself. First of all, the input data set it's worth saving is in text format. It's already supplied with the model but new data sets can be added and existing ones are added and that will happen from time to time. This screenshot is of the model program itself which stores all the model parameters and allows the user to make changes and run simulations. Then it generates output in text format that can be analysed using a statistical package or one of the built-in tools so that the impact on policy reform or poverty and inequality can be examined. Now I'm just going to now move back and look at the model itself in real time. So here is the actual model. I close up all of the expanded parts but this is the model interface and all of the policies are listed that are simulated. As I'll explain in subsequent sessions the policies are of various kinds. There are what's called definitional policies which for the time being I won't mention but there are also the insurance contribution policies. I watch my cursor and then the income tax policies, the different policies for the PSSN benefits and finally excise due to it and value added tax. But going back to the presentation I'll show key parts of the user interface. So first of all there are seven tabs, countries, display, country tools, administrative tools, add-ons, applications, help and info which are along the top and as these sessions unfold you'll get to know how to use those, which ones are useful, which ones aren't useful or as useful. And then there's the representation of Tanzania's tax benefits system for different policy years which are in that column called policy. They're in their collapse state at the moment so you can't see all the workings but you can see the headline taxes and benefits that are simulated. Then there's the run Tasmod, in fact it's now still called run Euromod button and that generates another menu once you press it with additional functionalities. So how might Tasmod be used? Well Tasmod so new it hasn't yet had any uses that we can talk about but we can talk about South Africa so I mentioned SA Mod is now really getting quite mature and it's been used in many different ways. So for example it's been used to simulate a youth benefit for the National Department of Social Development and there have been various different versions of youth benefit that have been simulated and there's actually a journal article which details how it's been used. The National Department of Social Development I should explain is the department in South Africa responsible for social grants, that is social transfers. We've also simulated a carers benefit again for another project for the Department of Social Development. A non means tested universal pension, this was done for the National Department of Social Development and the National Treasury and then most recently a non means tested universal child benefit for the Department of Social Development. So those give you some examples of how the model might be used, obviously there will be different situations in Tanzania but how it might be used in practice. Ok just to conclude the rest of the training course, the next session will be called getting started with Tasmod and we'll go into that interface that I showed you in more detail. We'll then have a special session just looking at tax and benefit policies, then a very important session on introducing new policies and amending existing ones and finally a session on analysing the output data. After this what I will do is take people through the model just in more detail than hitherto, so if I can go back I will just take us back to the model itself and conclude by just walking you through the model in a little bit more detail. I mentioned the tabs, seven tabs, countries simply there is only Tanzania at the moment though as I also mentioned hopefully there will be in the not too distant future Zamsibar to join it. The display tab has all sorts of options that enable you to for example implement conditional formatting which means when there is a change you can see it because it will be highlighted in a different colour etc etc. It's not one that we use very often but as you get more experience at using Euromod you tend to use it more. The country tools allow you to add a system and we'll talk about systems in the next session but a system is something like this column. There will be a new system for 2016 and 2017 in due course, this allows us to add a system and delete a system and those are probably the two most important there. The other important one is operating indices because one of the things that's clear when you've got a data set which is 2011-2012 and we're now sitting in 2017 is that we need to up-rate all of the monetary data in that survey up to 2017 prices and we do that using the up-rating indices. So that's that and the add system and delete system are the most important buttons on that particular toolbar. The administration tools that by far the most important one here is the variables tool, again that will become clear in later sessions. The add-ons will become important when they've been completely and finalised for the South Mod programme. Applications is useful or at least the open output file application is because this enables us to check the data very quickly by using the Excel button because it enables us to examine the output data in Excel. And then the others are yet to be properly implemented for South Mod when they are, summary statistics will allow us to look at the summary statistics for Tanzania. And then finally the help and information but the help particularly will be useful for helping debug a function etc. Now we're not going to go into these things in detail but each of these different policies does unpack into a series of steps and I'll do the operate one just out of interest. There's something called a function and this is the operate function and then the function itself has a series of parameters. And some are more complex than others. Income tax for example has a total of five functions and each one of those functions has a number of parameters attached to it. All of this don't worry about at the moment. It's just to illustrate the interface and the fact that it can be seen in the collapse form but then you can un-collapse it in order to work on the different policies. And that's all for this session. Thank you very much.


If you need Madden 21 Coins for anything, make sure to go to buymuntcoins.com. Check it out with the link in the description and my code MMG is 15% off. This video is for one man and one man only. That is the Trojan Alumni Heisman winner, absolute stud, Reggie Bush. I'm just excited to see what abilities they gave this card. So Madden came out with the Madden 50 promo and honestly out of all the players that they came out with, I wasn't excited for a lot of them, but then right at the end, I saw Reggie Bush. I was like, all right, I'll make him a video. Here's all of the options for the 50. So there's Brian Dawkins, which I do like. Namdi Asamuga, my saying that right Raiders fans, let me know. Derek Brooks, we know him Reggie White, Walter Jones, Jimmy Graham, Tyrone Calico, that's a new one. We don't see him very often in Madden and then Reggie Bush. Hopefully as this keeps going, they'll drop some cooler cards. I gotta say I wasn't too stoked about that. Plus, I don't know, abilities this year are not as much fun in my personal opinion. I absolutely hate the adjustments to Jukebox and evasive. Like seriously, it's so sad. Jukebox and evasive used to be like the coolest things to put on players, spin cycle, but now it just makes your moves a little bit weirder. It doesn't even make them that good. So now Bruiser is the meta. So I don't think Reggie Bush is gonna get Bruiser, but hopefully he can. What's he got stats wise? So 91 speed, 92 Excel, 91 agility, that's amazing. 86 Carrier, he's got no trucking. He's not gonna get it. 91 change direction, 89 brake tackle, 91 Juke. He's a stud. I think he's the second best quarterback in football. All right, that's for abilities. What do we go with? Balance beam and route technician. Backfield master, ooh. I kind of like backfield master, honestly. Okay, so we're gonna start with backfield master. More hot routes and improved catching for the backfield. Love that ability. Cause I can give him the Texas route. That little, ooh, nasty. Reach for it seems to be a staple. And then hopefully I can get, oh, I was hoping I could get match up night there since I've been running so many out of the backfield. Oh, backfield mismatch. Better routes and catching from the backfield versus linebackers. It's exactly what I need. We're basically gonna run Texas routes and just throw a whole lot of passes to Reggie Bush.  Grab and smash. If you bring your girl within five mile radius of me, I'm gonna grab and smash.  I go ankle breaker cause it's following the catch. So I need 20 plus yard receptions for that. I think we can do it. All right, that is a fully gasped out Reggie Bush. I think we're ready for this game. These jerseys are perfect for Reggie Bush right here. I'm gonna play weekend league qualifiers. Cause I can't go into head to head. That's Willamotte territory. All right, I'm ready to go. Let's do this. Oh, the classic I missed it, didn't I? Does he have a God squad? I didn't do my laundry. Does he have a God squad?  I goofed. I didn't put Jamal Adams abilities on.  Let's see what happens. Is that a run?  Oh, okay. Nevermind. Am I gonna do the thing? Do I smell? Is this? Oh no, nevermind, nevermind. Oh, right here, right here, right here. He didn't get it off. Guess who's coming out already? What? Am I gonna get a rage quit? Wait, is this gonna be one of those things where if he doesn't get this, he rage quits? It's gotta be. Fourth and 15. He's hitting this early. No way. No way you're getting that. No way you're getting- Reach for it. God, that ability is so good. Well, it's okay. Reggie Bush has it too, so I'm not mad, but wow, that ability is nasty. All right, that's a counter. Minka. We're holding Zeke right now. Three rushes, three yards. Feed Zeke.  All right, all right, all right. Jamalio Adams. Jamalio. Shit. I didn't do what I wanted to do. Third and 10. Ah! Why do I find myself doing that so often? Damn, and he's got a pretty nasty few. I don't know if it's a latency thing or if I'm just bad at this game, but I never used that. I accidentally hit run commit so much. Dude, wow, he really got a score out of that after having a fourth and 15 that he barely got. Oh, Reggie Bush is my return man. All right, up to the 20. I'm gonna just gas them a little bit, which is not good. Reach for it, backfield mismatch and backfield master. Oh, wait a second, am I an idiot?  Backfield master also gives me better catching, doesn't it?   I might have just doubled up abilities. I'll check that in a second. I'm gonna throw that to X, he's kind of open. So backfield master gives you more hot routes and improved catching from the backfield and I just did better routes and catching from the backfield. Well, I guess he gets better routes still. I don't know if I did that correctly or not. I'm just gonna hand the ball up to him. No, he got barely grabbed. Oh my God, he got so much room. All right, second and six. I'm running the exact same thing. There it is, Reggie. Oh, reach for it. I got mine this time. Now we're even, Ezekiel Elliott. I'm gonna stay and read option until I have a really obvious Lamar key. Let's see if this is an obvious key. Yup, yup, let's see. Literally exactly what I was talking about. Let's see, Reggie. Yup, right up the middle, right up the middle. All right, I'll take that. I'll take that, Reggie Bush. Four rushes, 22 yards. Now we give him a Texas shout. This is what I've been trying to do all game. Let's see if we can get him hopefully to bite on like a deep route. So that way, Reggie's very, yup, yup, yup, yup. Let's go. I want to get ankle breaker activated, but five 20 plus yard receptions is not easy at all. I run and try the read option.  I'll be Wagner. I do have pink zone bubble, but Reggie Bush is not in. Let's just see what he goes with. Is there a spy?  Can you see these nuts, boy? I'm surprised that base slants just got me a touchdown, but I will take my points however I can get them. Seven to seven. I know how we're gonna beat him, boys. We just have to not suck. Does he throw underneath? He just goes with a handoff. Zeke has five rushes, zero yards. Fantasy football managers are seething right now. Are you ready? Oh, he ran it again. Oh, and I didn't get that.  Jamal, hosted by Zeke. I thought I took literally the perfect angle. All right, so play action here. This does not look open. Jamal, no, I missed him. Russell does not fumble.  I have to run commit. Come on, come on. Come on, boys. Yes! Okay, a full back dive. The two. Look at this elite goal line defense right now. And my opponent is experiencing network issues. I'm blitzing everybody, and then I'm just gonna lock up the middle in case he throws. There it is. No. That was a split second late on that. I got time to get something up. It's just gonna be a pretty easy read for us. Yup. Reggie push right over the top. Perfect catch. And there's another timeout. All right, 21 seconds left.  First and 10, he is on a user. He's gonna, wait, wait. No, keep going, Reggie. That's fine. That could have been a lot worse. All right, good. Oh, it's there. It's perfect. Kittle, what was that? All right, double team on Aaron Donald. We're hitting George Kittle on the same route. Don't you dare. Got it. Thank you. This is gonna be a tough one. Solid power, not great accuracy. Is it in? Is it in? Yes. It thinks the camera goes in. That was an onslaught right there. Great offense. And we get the ball.  Is this, is he galaxy braining me? Ooh, Ronnie Law. Ronnie Law with a big play right there. I love to see that. This is a quick snap, quick throw, Reggie Bush. Maybe not. Huh? It's a very easy throw to. Can you tell me how that man coverage was four yards off and then all of a sudden he closed that gap? There's Reggie. There's Reggie Bush! And I'm getting a call on my phone right now, not the time. Okay, he's not using a D-Lime in this time.  That's the obvious pass here. He has not seen an actual run play in a while, I don't think. So this could catch him off guard. Bobby Wagner, got a round, got a round. Jeff. Perfect. Reggie Bush is in. Ten yard rush. I'm throwing it to him. I'm throwing it to him. He got it. Got the edge. Wow, have you ever seen someone get a two point like that? It's 14 to 18. That's a really good score for us. Uh-oh, uh-oh. Good tackle. I'm sending everybody. I think he might just come right side. He does hand it off to him! I wish I had my abilities on tomorrow right now. Did I gotten Forcer and Stonewall on this man? No way, you run it. He ran it. God, this guy's got huge monkey balls.  All right, there's nothing over here. And he got sacked. I'm gonna go on Minka here. Wow, he really runs a stretch. This guy likes the run game, but it's successful for him. That's third and eight. Let's see what you got there. Is that a run? It is a run! There's Brock all over it! We're coming in so hot for this. Play action! Oh, he dumps it off to what looks like an O-line man. Yup, it's the Wham.  I missed. I was right there in the backfield and I missed.  Oh, that's Wham. I've seen that before. Minka! Minka!   I don't wanna hold the middle. Got him! Third and 17. Man's gotta get some serious yardage here. That's a slip screen. That is a slip screen and I took a bad angle, but reach for it. Yup. Oh, read option. You, man. Bruh.  Swear to God. Very good game we got here. Okay! Okay! Huge! That's my two point. My two point was so big. All Papa Meeks has to do is put this puppy in field goal range. All right, we're gonna go deuce, close, stretch. I'm gonna pull this left side. I don't like coming at Bobby Wagner, but it's just so open there. Look at that. Look at that view. God. It's man 20 all over again, baby. Can you stop the stretch? Cause if you can't, if you can't, let's go! Damn, I thought that was gonna go for way more. I got a little too excited. Yeah, I don't need to go into two clock quite yet. Second and sixth, I'm gonna hit it again. Yup. Hit it through there, Reggie! Let's go!  I feel like it won't, but. Reggie! Oh, he knows the only way he wins that game is if he lets me score that touchdown. I just got beat and wheel him up by doing that same thing. So I wouldn't mind another touchdown with Reggie.  Three, two, all right. Get the edge. Oh, he's got it. That's a touch. Oh, wait, that's Derek Henry.  That's sad. See if it's there. Ooh, it's not. Ooh, it's not. I'm in trouble here. I'm in trouble. Do I bomb it up? Or is that a really stupid? Wait a second. If he returns that, I'm in so much trouble. Oh, my God, my God, my God. Okay, so we gotta hold him out for 19 seconds. He does have his full repertoire of timeouts, though. Gentlemen, wish us luck. We're playing deep on everything. He's gonna throw underneath. That's fine. Six seconds. I'm five with six seconds for that amount of yardage. Play over the top. He's just gonna throw another easy one. Oh, I love when those tackle animations take a while when you're trying to chew that clock. We're gonna blitz everyone and then play over the top with our big boys. Hopefully they get to rust before he can do any damage. They do not. Oh, no. That dude in the back was looking like he was ready to grab that. Huge game here. How'd you push? The all-purpose yards on Reggie Bush. I used him like Christian McCaffrey right there for sure. Very good game. 160 passing, 86 rushing. So Lamar with a 145 rating, but Russell with 158, a perfect passer rating. Zeke got fed the ball. Played a little bit better than Reggie Bush in the rushing game. I'm not gonna lie, but receiving is what we got Reggie Bush for. This man averaged 23.2 yards per reception. 93 receiving yards. I really like this Reggie Bush card. The only thing is I wish he had like, I do wish he had Jukebox, even though Jukebox is nowhere near as good this year, I wish he had Jukebox. Although he does have it, I just didn't put it on. All right, boys, clean game for Reggie Bush. I hope you enjoyed. I definitely wanted to drop a video with him and that was a good game. I hope you boys enjoyed. I'll see you in the next video. Peace out.