Hello and welcome back to the trading floor episode of the market maker podcast where I'm joined by our co-founder, Piers Curran, and we've got three topics for discussion this week. I'm going to talk about the housing market. If you're based in the UK, you've probably been littered with headlines such as UK housing prices fall at their fastest rates is 2009. Lots of concern here on the street in the UK, but this is more than just the UK. This is a global topic. So we're going to discuss a little bit about the divergence in prices actually between the UK and the US. And also, could Denmark have the solution for Britain's broken housing market? Definitely interested to see why they have a potential solution for us here in the UK. So Piers, I know you're going to shed some light on that.  So we'll dive into those numbers. They're one of the last European banks to report this season. And then thirdly, is the US labor market starting to show some cracks after the US job openings this week dropped to the lowest level in nearly two and a half years in the month of July. So to kick things off, why don't we talk a little bit then Piers about the housing market? Where do you want to go first, the UK or the US? Well, let's go domestic. Let's go UK, shall we? There's nothing like the media lover a kind of doom and gloom housing market headline. So yeah, as you said, they've definitely served bad up this month. Each month you get high price index data being released and when these numbers drop, which give you the kind of latest monthly update, then the financial press tend to be all over that and they love a headline. So yeah, the headline 5.3%. That's the annualized drop in house prices in the month of August. So house prices on average across the whole of the UK. What's the price on average August 2023 compared to August 2022? It's down 5.3%. And in July, I mean, look, house prices have been declining. Well, actually pretty much all year. It's just if you like the paces increasing because in July, the annualized house price dropped. Actually, I did have that data. Now I've lost it. Oh, hang on. I've got a different stat first. You can maybe give us the figure from last month. My different stat was and the reason why it's kind of sensationalized is that the yeah, this is the sharpest fall annualized fall since July 2009. So the speed of declines picking up basically here. I've got it now. July, the decline was 3.8% year on year. Now it's 5.3% year on year. What's it going to be next month? Probably even a greater drop. As we come off the top, you really need to see, I guess, a house price chart to get it into context. So whilst we are declining, we're declining off those 2022 highs, all time highs. So we've been pegged back to now prices that we last saw at the start of 2022. But look, the trend is in place. Prices are dropping and it's not a surprise. I think that's one of the main things. I heard a comment from nationwide who's this data you're referring to, their chief economist, chap called Robert Gardner, and he said that the softening is not surprising given the extent of the rising borrowing costs. And he said he thinks a relatively soft landing for the property market is pinched a bit of language here from the other economists on the economy front. He said a soft landing looks likely for the property market is still achievable because of the unemployment rate, which is expected to remain low and the high proportion of borrowers on fixed rates. Yeah. It depends on obviously interest rates, surging is the key catalyst behind this and obviously inflation and the cost of living. You've then got less money to spend on your mortgage payments each month and we'll kind of get into the meat of it. But ultimately, this is an important economic barometer historically and present day and in the future. And it's just very simply like in an economy where it's largely geared around consumption. It's all about the ability for the consumer to spend. And so what's their disposable income each month is obviously a key part of that consumption story. And if their disposable income, if more and more and more of it is actually being taken away because their interest payments on their mortgage is going up, well then of course that means less disposable income. That means that damages that consumption story. And ultimately that's that's where how the economy grows by people consuming more. So this is a key economic barometer. I do hesitate to talk about house prices too much only because if you own a house, well, it's one of the most important things in your life. Of course, if you don't own a house, well then because if there's people listening to this going, well, I don't own a house. So who cares? Well, it is important from a macro point of view. But ironically, they'll be feeling the pain in a different way. If you own a house, you're feeling the pain, the value of your assets declining and your monthly interest payments might go up. We'll talk about that in a sec.  So they can't afford those payments. So they're not buying. So they're renting, of course. So rental demands spiked, which means of course price rent prices have gone up. So rent prices are record highs. Yeah. So it's quite an interesting kind of dynamic that we have here in the housing market at the moment. Yeah. I think if you are an owner, one of the things is, yeah, do look at a chart though, you mentioned and rightly so, the stat that the fall, the data we've had out today, it's the fastest pace since July of 2009. This will see it's like the heat of the financial crisis. But if you look at the house price appreciation from the next month, all the way through basically for a 12 month period, house prices went up, just by eye looking at this chart, about 25 to 30% in 12 months. Immediately after hit that pace of the bottom of the financial crisis, obviously the response that we saw by authorities in various forms at the time really juiced the market. And actually even over the COVID period, that two year period between kind of 2020 to 2022, on an average, we're clocking in around 89% appreciation. It's been a great trait. It's just come off the top a little bit. Yeah. Well, actually, and this is what the press focus on. It doesn't know me a little bit. That's that sensationist headline. Oh my God, prices are collapsing. But actually that's not the story. The way more important story, which okay, they are covering as well, is mortgage rates and your monthly outgoings as a homeowner. And how is that going to change? And this then, let's talk a bit about mortgages and what's available. And it depends on the country as to the typical trends and patterns of how people go about borrowing to buy a house. Now, in the UK, typically, we have short term mortgages. Well, so when you buy a house, if you've never done it before, then you need to borrow money clearly. And you're looking at normally like a 30 year time frame over which you're going to pay off this loan.  As long as I can prove that I'm in a stable job full time employment. And normally they ask for like three months worth of pay slips to prove that you're in that job and that your monthly income is what you say it is. And then right, they tend to lend against that. And they'll say, right, you can borrow four times your annual salary. That's the kind of rough ballpark maths, right? In fact, you borrow the money. But over what time frame? And typically the banks give these deals where right, you can have a two year fixed rate mortgage or a five year fixed rate mortgage. And typically what happens is let's just take a two year example, you'll get a sweetener where you'll get a two year fixed rate, which is discounted. Because the bank wants to get you in and get you on the books. And then after those two years elapsed, your mortgage rate will then revert to a floating rate, which is linked to the central bank's interest rate. Okay, so it'll be the central bank's rate plus 1%. Okay, let's just say. But of course, what people do in the UK, they do their two year fix. Great, they get this cheap deal. And then in two years time, they don't just let that loan roll on to that base rate plus one variable thing, they then just rearrange and go and get a new mortgage deal with a different bank. And then they enter into another new fixed two year deal, right? And typically if interest rates are low, this is a great way of going about it. You know, you have flexibility, you can shop around, you can change your mortgage up every couple of years. Okay, but what's happened now is this has turned into an absolute nightmare. Because you've been, you've fixed your mortgage, let's say you fixed it in 2021 for two years at a rate of, I don't know, let's just say roughly one and a half percent interest rate that you could have got on a two year mortgage in 2021, maybe even lower. Right, but let's just say one and a half percent. Okay, great, you fixed that in perfect, super cheap. My monthly interest payments aren't that massive, perfect. Now you're facing a nightmare because two years on either the mortgage you have is going to roll on to this base rate plus one, or you've got to rearrange and fix with someone else. But of course, the fixed rates are now north of five percent. So you're going to move from an interest rate of one and a half to an interest rate of five. Now what does that mean in terms of actual pounds in your pocket or pounds going out of your bank account? It obviously depends on the size of your mortgage and how much you're borrowing, but the averages are roughly speaking, you're going to get about, I think it's two million homeowners are going to see their annual mortgage payments increase by more than 3,000 pounds in the next 12 months. So go back to my original point.  Well, if I'm now minus 3,000 pounds, that's not a small amount of money. And so it's expected that, A, that's going to have a very negative drag on consumption and therefore the you would care economy broadly. But then also B, it's going to mean bad news for the housing market from a demand point of view, because people aren't going to be buying, they're not going to be up sizing and getting a bigger mortgage. They're not on the market, they're not going to buy because rates are too expensive. So demand has collapsed. So of course prices are coming down. Yeah. I mean, on that point, one article that jumps to mind was something I saw that was talking about investment bank MDs. So at an MD level, this is where your compensation is typically very high. And this was specifically talking about the investment bank divisions, so bankers. And as we've discussed many times, the deal flow has dramatically slowed over the past 18 months or so. So bonus sizes have been slammed. And one of the problems here is a lot of these MDs have very nice houses and very expensive places in London. And so, you know, they themselves, I mean, even though they get paid astronomical sums of money, they don't have five million in the bank to put down for a Georgian townhouse in the West End. So they've got very big mortgages, essentially. And I was reading this one person who was kind of used as a case study, I think his mortgage rate, it went up to something like he was paying 25,000 a month. It jumped up to having reset on like two years. And so basically, there's MDs who are basically having to fire sell everything because they can't afford to keep that their lifestyle, even though they're at the upper echelon of their so called profession. Or they're forced to sell the house, right? Yeah. And so, and this adds to the declining price trend and momentum because they're forced to sell there's not much demand. So like in any market, how do you price it? Well, it's obviously supply and demand, isn't it? And when, when there's not much demand, you got to just go lower on price. And so what's happening is you're getting, you know, asking prices, that's one thing, that's what the seller would like to sell for. But these days, it's a buyer's market, meaning they, they've got the power and they'll come in with a bid well below the asking price. And the sellers, either if they can stay in the house and just ride it out over the next X years, or they might be forced to sell in which case they have to take that low ball bid. And of course, that then marks that mark to market lower. And that's the price decline momentum in, you know, building. So before we talk about the US and how they're different, one thing is, is where are UK interest rates heading now? And I say that because there was an interesting comment from the chief economist of all people from the Bank of England yesterday. And firstly, very interesting comment that was yesterday was that Hugh Pill is the guy's name. And he said, he pushed back or essentially he pushed back against market expectations. And he was indicating that he would vote to keep rates at five and a quarter percent for a longer period. However, he's come out today, looks like he's had his hand slapped by his powers that be. And to clarify, he's now saying the Bank of England needs to be particularly wary about letting inflation persistence dynamics set in. So he's kind of like reverting back a little bit to perhaps we do need to hike. And then he said, we have not yet seen a downturn in core inflation, which would reassure us. So yeah, bit of a flip flopping commentary there from the chief economist, but where are we at the moment in that right debate? Really, I think it's really difficult to call for the UK. So 5.25%, that's where we're at at the moment. What is it, 14 meetings in a row of hikes? Or maybe it's 15, I lose count now. And it's about like when we talk about the US, we're pretty confident they're at the top, no more hikes. And fine, they might hang around at the top for a bit. Let's see. And who knows, maybe you might get some cuts, I don't know, back half of next year kind of thing. I think there's more visibility in the US. I think in the UK, the inflation situation isn't tamed yet, like it seems to have been in the US. And so what we're seeing is like stats like wage growth is remaining at I think record highs or if not record, it's certainly super high levels, right? And this feeds into sustained inflation. And the labor market's still pretty tight. And so employers are still having to pay higher wages to get workers in. And so, yeah, we're a bit worried that the inflation thing's hanging around for longer here in the UK. So what are the bank of England do about that? Do they either think 5.25% is now high enough? And that's going to deliver pain that over the months ahead, let's say the six months ahead, that pain will then naturally see consumption start to get eroded and find that inflation story starts to turn. Or are they more worried? And they think 5.25% as a peak rate isn't going to do the job, we need to go higher. And, you know, and I think that your huge pills soft landing, I know, sorry, that was the Robert Gardner, sorry, Robert Gardner, that his soft landing in the housing market, I think will be very dependent on what happens with interest rates and do the Bank of England go more, then you've got a much more, you've got a hard landing risk increasing there.  And it starts to turn into a much more rapid collapse rather than what is at the moment a steady decline. Yeah, one interesting item linked to this this week was that price rises in British shops had slowed to the lowest rates since October. So when we're trying to like piece together where inflation is heading, however, I thought the interesting part of that was, okay, fine, prices are slowing. This is a good sign if you're tying it to inflation. However, there are three major supply risks that were also highlighted, which could disrupt the pattern specifically of food inflation, which we already know is tracking way higher than the rest of the inflation metrics. So here they were talking about grain exports when Ukraine are in jeopardy again. And this is tied to the fact that Russia pulled out of something called the Black Sea Grain Initiative. So this was an agreement about the passage of grain coming out of Ukraine, which is almost one third of global grain exports. Then there was this idea about poor harvests across Europe and beyond. I know it's hard to believe there's been a summer if you're based in the UK, but in Europe, it's almost the other way around, I think. And then three, India, their decision, they've placed export restrictions on rice. I think their rice prices are up like 30% or something. Well, did you see that the Philippines in response have introduced the government's introduced a rice price cap? So like here we've had gas price, energy price caps. Well, in the Philippines, it's rice price cap. So for sure, those supply risks are still there in the system. So yes, as you say, it's hard for the visibility for the UK. So how about going back to the housing market, the US then? So you talked about this idea of the kind of short-term nature of how we access mortgages here in the UK. Is the US the same or different? So it's different. Well, when I tell you that the house price situation in the US, well, prices are still going up. And actually, their record highs. But hang on, their interest rates have sharply gone up on a super high. And mortgage rates, if you're trying to get a new mortgage now, are even higher than in the UK. You're looking at north as 7%. So it's like, hang on a minute. Why does that then not have the same negative impacts that we're seeing in the UK? How are prices still going up? So this is all about the difference in the mortgage, the structuring of these loans for homes. Now in the US, it's completely different. Almost all, I think it's almost all homeowners. When you buy a house, you enter into a 30-year fixed rate loan agreement that's done and set up front. There's none of this two-year fix, five-year fix in a roll-on to a new deal, rearrange, none of that. You buy a house, you get a loan, one loan for the lifetime of the house, or well, sorry, for 30 years at a fixed rate. Now that rate right now, if you're buying a house now, 7.2%. And that's the highest since 2001. I'll use my same example. If in the US, you bought a house in 2021, you would have secured, or you did secure, a 30-year fixed rate of 2.7%. That's locked in. That's an amazing rate. Now it's 7.2, right? So if you own a house and you bought it pre this interest rate spike, you are happy days. You've got a relatively super low interest rate on a mortgage for the lifetime of the loan in 30 years. The problem in the US is if you sell your house, well then you lose that mortgage deal. So here in the UK, you can what's called port your mortgage. So if you sell a house and buy a different one, you can basically take your existing mortgage with you and it just rotates onto this different property. You can't do that in the US.  So of course, no one's selling their house because they don't want to switch from a 2.7% interest rate to a 7.2% interest rate. So existing home sales have collapsed. The supply has collapsed. Now demand is also weakened for the same macro forces, right? Interest rates are really high. People can't afford to buy. Demand has dropped. It's just in the US because of this difference in the mortgage system, the supply of available existing homes has collapsed even further. So you go back to just the simple supply and demand dynamics and because supply has collapsed by even more than demand, then actually prices are still rising. So actually a kind of bit of a kind of second dimension impact on that is then home builders in the UK, they are literally going out of business, worse conditions for decades. In the US, home builders are having a heyday because it's where's the supply. If you do want to buy a house and get on the market, there are no existing homes for sale because people don't want to sell. So you've got to buy new homes. So actually new home sales has gone through the roof and I think it's making up like 30%. One third of active listings right now in the US, one third of all listings are new homes. Normally the average over the last couple of decades like pre-COVID and intro strength, the average is about 13% of listings on new homes. Now that's risen to more than doubled or almost tripled. So yeah, you've got this really quite unique set of circumstances in the US housing market that's led to a collapse of existing home sales, prices therefore still rising and yet affordability for new buyers being at the worst conditions for years and years. Okay, so we've had both ends of the spectrum. We mentioned at the top of the episode Denmark. So what's the situation with Denmark? Well, the good old Danes. So again, the 30 year fixed rate deal is very popular in Denmark, similar to the US. You buy a house, you enter into this deal, it's 30 years and it's fixed. Okay, more than half of homeowners in Denmark are on a 30 year fixed rate deal. Okay. But where they've got a better system than the US is if you sell your house, of course remember that's the problem in the US, no one's selling because you lose that low rate. In Denmark, two options that the US don't have. If you sell your house, you can either buy out your mortgage, but if interest rates have gone up, the value of your mortgage essentially gets marked to mark it down. So you benefit from essentially having a discounted amount that you can buy your mortgage off at. Okay, that's one way that's a bit more complex that there's a more simpler option, which is easier to get your head around. When you sell your house in Denmark, if you've got a 30 year fixed deal, the buyer can take over that deal. So essentially the loan belongs to the property more than the owner of the property. And so this frees up the market and enables people to sell and buy. If you've got an existing home, right, I'm going to sell it. I'm not going to, my buyer is going to get the low rate deal I got, I secured back in 2021. So they're happy, and I can then go and buy another house and I'll get the low rate deal that the previous owner of that house used to have. So it just frees up the market and it means that supply hasn't collapsed. So I wonder how the affordability angle works there. So if I was a first time buyer as a 25 year old compared to a 55 year old, my earnings and my existing capital, can I take it over? Yeah. So I don't know. I mean, that's a top level. That all sounds hunky dory and makes sense. But yeah, for sure, when you get into the weeds of it, different credit ratings, if your new buyer coming in has got a lower credit rating, well, then yeah, how does the bank feel about that? So I don't quite know how that works, to be honest. To the final question, tying it back to the actual people who offer these mortgages. So what's the pro and con as a financial institution, a lender, offering the UK model or the US model? Well, the US model again is a bit unique and it's essentially government backed because you've got Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So essentially your mortgage deals with the government. Then Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac package these mortgages and sell them to banks and investors. Right. In the UK, it's not how it works. It's the banks.  And so I guess for those banks, it's here in the UK, it's a more nimble market. But then you've got this headache of getting a lot of churn because every two years customers are rolling off. And then so you've always got to be trying to win these customers back. And so there's that huge sales and marketing effort around, it's a fierce marketplace. So that's a real headache. But then you're not stuck as a bank, imagine. If most of your customers are on a 2.7%, 30 year fixed rate loan arrangement for a bank, that's a nightmare. Given rates are now where they are, right? So it's funny. I remember sitting on the desk in 2008 and used to have Bloomberg with lots of different screens and one of them, a lot of them were like price monitors. So you'd have different asset classes or products. And we'd had this ladder of different equity in sectors. So you could just identify visually what's out and underperforming. And I remember seeing Fannie and Freddie and they would down like 25, 30%. This was even before the bank started to get hit. So it was like the very first domino was like all the signal was when those started to get absolutely drilled. And then there was actually a bit of time there. I mean, I say time we're talking days before then it kind of like became like, wow, this is a serious problem at the time. Yeah. I mean, that's just that extreme moment where you get a sharp collapse in house prices. Because that then means, of course, you get the value of the asset declines below the level of the loan that's secured on that asset. So you're now underwater. And at the same time, the economy is collapsing.  So there's foreclosures and there's defaults. But the banks are wearing the pain because ultimately, if they then sell the asset, what is that we claim the same amount of money as their loan liability. And so they end up losing money. And then the housing money is like a vicious cycle, right? Because then if there's a lot of force selling, well, then of course, the prices collapse even further. And that was that kind of, well, I'll call it once in a lifetime moment, maybe. Careful. Careful. You're going to live to 100, Pierce. So all right, well, look, we've, we wanted to talk about the housing market the most. I feel like we've done that now. So let's just briefly touch on the other two subjects. So firstly, UBS, again, the media kind of juicing the headline, the biggest ever quarterly profit. And they were referring to the $29 billion gain that that being a result of the accounting difference between the $3.8 billion price UBS paid for credit Swiss and the value of the acquired lender's balance sheet, essentially. But the other things I thought quite interesting was just how big and dominant now UBS is and is going to become, because the combination now puts their global franchise as they referred to it. So all parts of the business, essentially close to five trillion incline assets. And, you know, looking at their share price, I saw a chart of UBS against European and US peers in the investment bank space. And everyone's kind of like quite erratic, but generally not going anywhere up marginally. But UBS has gone through the roof. And actually, they were already up 30% for the year. And then they opened up about 7% yesterday. I don't think they finished quite as high, but we're talking about a 30 plus percent gain on the year. Their market value now is gone over BNP Paribas. They're now ranked as the second biggest in Europe after HSBC. They've trumped that of US lender city group as well. Right.  They've done, they've had an, they've got an absolute steal here, because they basically bought credit Swiss. And here's the account, it's entirely an accounting thing, right? There's 29 billion. If you took out the credit Swiss deal, their profit for the quarter is actually 1.1 billion. But it's reported at 29, as you said, it's the biggest bank profit ever. Do you know what, do you know what the previous record was? So JP Morgan set the previous record in 2021. They had a profit of 14.3 billion, which is a straight-up genuine profit. This, this is 29 billion, but it's an accounting trick.  And now hang on, they've made 29 billion out of that. You're like, wow, that's like the best trade, the best deal in the history of mankind. But I guess it's easy to think that now, but you go back to that banking crisis, you know, back in, in the spring. And it's not that there was zero risk here.  Yes, they were in a position where they could force an amazing deal, but it wasn't risk-free. All right, fine. It's all settled down and it's all turned around and happy days. What people haven't maybe don't quite appreciate, this 29 billion profit was actually lower than expected. Analysts had actually forecasted a 33 billion profit. And so that's just because actually the outflow of deposits from Credit Swiss during the crisis was actually a bit higher than they thought. The outflow was 10.6 billion dollars. But basically, yeah, UBS bought the asset book of Credit Swiss at an incredibly discounted level, because there was uncertainty as to how much deposit outflow there would end up being. Anyway, it's all worked out incredibly well, obviously now. What I thought was quite controversial, because you know, obviously they're right, they're now going ahead with the merger. It's going to take years and fine. There's lots of cost efficiencies that UBS think they can find within that Credit Swiss entity. Inevitably, there'll be a lot of job losses, of course. But one thing that they announced in this earnings that they announced that they're going to merge the domestic businesses and essentially phase out the whole Credit Swiss brand entirely. That's a 167-year-old brand. And the only reason I mentioned this is because this is getting political. Because actually, there was a poll done back when the kind of rescue took place. And 75% of Swiss nationals do not agree with UBS phasing out the Credit Swiss brand. And there's an election coming up. And this is all getting quite political now around, right. All these political candidates are getting asked, what's your position on the UBS Credit Swiss deal? And so it's kind of entered into that political arena a little bit. Well, all I know is Roger Federer was Credit Swiss, not UBS, if I'm not wrong. So when it comes to Swiss identity, at a global level. Can I just finish on the share price? You mentioned it. So it's actually just broken 23 Swiss francs, quite a key. And it just jumped this week, as you said. What's key about that? It's actually broken above the 2015 high. So that's actually the highest now since 2008 for the UBS share price I'm talking about now. But it's at 23 Swiss francs, right? And you mentioned, oh, it's more valuable than Citigroup now or well, in terms of assets under management, let's say. But it's share price, UBS is share price 2007, pre-financial crisis. So remember it's at 23 Swiss francs now. It's had a great year, 30% up, multi-year high, 23 Swiss francs. It was 71 Swiss francs. In 2007. So whilst it's had an amazing year, I'm going back even further. UBS's share price was at 23 Swiss francs in 1993. So you could argue in 30 years, it's gone nowhere. I hope there's no UBS stockholders who've been holding since 93 listening, just for their own sanity. Hang in there. All right, well, let's go on to the final one, which was just quickly to talk about the US for a very top level. We are recording this on the 1st of September. So Non-Farm Parals is yet to come. But even before that, there's been some interesting data in something called jolts. So perhaps you could give us a bit of color about what that is and what's been happening. Yeah, so there's the thing called the jolts job open rate. So it's economic data released every month. And it's one of the many, many measures on the labor market. And this one's looking at job openings. So as the name suggests, in total across the entire economy, how many jobs are being advertised for right now, for positions that are genuinely available, where companies want these workers to start as soon as possible. And this is like a salaried role. Okay. And the thing here is, it's a measure of how tight the labor market is. And point being, if the higher the job open rate, well, that's a measure to say that there's a lack of supply of workers, because companies can't fill these positions. And so we had this peak back in December 2022, where it got above 11 million, okay, 11 million job openings and start, you know, companies just couldn't find staff. The problem is, this is inflationary. Because what happens if you can't find someone to fill your job opening, where you got to offer more money. Right. And then this means wages go up, which then of course incomes go up and then consumption goes up and it all feeds into that inflation story, right. So over 11 million in December 2022, it's now been declining ever since then. And it's one of those key measures that the Fed look at, as to right, what are the labor market conditions and they feed this into their decision making around their inflation forecasting and therefore, are they going to continue to raise interest rates or not. And the key reading this week came out and it's for the month of July. So it's a little old, but the point is that it dropped below 9 million now. So it's actually at 8.83 million job openings. That was a lot lower than expected. The forecasted figure I think was 9.4 million actually. So it came in a lot lower than expected. It was expected to go back up. Not only did it not go up, it declined and it went below the key psychological 9 million level. So it's further evidence in summation. It's further evidence that the tight conditions in the labor market in the US are easing and this feeds into the whole narrative. The Fed are done. There's no more rate hikes. And if you go and have a look at the stock market this week, they've had a great week. You know, S&P and the NASDAQ have been nicely and strongly up on the week as people get more confident again that the Fed aren't going to hike any further. I love that. I love that it's like Main Street suffers, yep Wall Street up. Yep. It's the perverse nature of how markets work. And yeah, just to kind of supplement what you said. Economists, they are expecting the increase in non-farms to come out momentarily to have moderated further in August, having already posted in July the second smallest gain since December 2020. So kind of all marrying up if you like in that way. The other thing is JOLTS. So J-O-L-T-S. So the J-O is job openings. The L-T-S is labor turnover survey. And on that side of things, the Labor Department said that I also showed the number of people quitting their jobs, dropped to levels last seen in early 2021. Basically Americans becoming less confident about the labor market. So yeah, everything all coming to that same point you said. Cool. Well look, let's wrap it up there and finish things off. Thank you very much as ever, Piers. Thank you everyone for listening. Have a fantastic weekend and we will see you same time next week. Yeah, have an awesome weekend. Bye-bye.


If you've ever received an email template and you wanted to replicate that email template, you can actually do it right inside your email template design. All right, so what I'm gonna do is I wanna replicate this email template right here. And I'm gonna go to home. All right, and so anyway, I'm on the home of my Dynamics Pro and I'm gonna click on email templates because I wanna create an email template that looks just like this. So I'm gonna click on email templates. Excuse me. Next, what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna click on add email template. Then I'm gonna click on advanced editor blank because I want them to build this from scratch. You can also really just kinda look right here and you kinda notice it looks a little similar. So you could use this template right here. So I'm gonna click on it and it's very, very, very similar because you have an image right here with an image, with some border. You have, you have a, so I know that this is an image so if I click and hold it down, I know that this is just one large image so I don't have to recreate this part. This is just an image. And then here's where it starts with a button. Right here has a button so I could just move this button underneath the picture like it does right here. And then from there, I could pretty much recreate the rest of this because it's just text. So I'm just gonna use this same template and you could just go down through all the different samples down here. And really you could just insert if you'd like any of these, you could actually just go in there and recreate it. So we're gonna use this one because it's really, really similar. All right, so this one is called Baskerville. So we're gonna name the template Baskerville. All right, so it's gonna load up the email template designer. And the first thing I am going to do is, I noticed that this logo right here for Lakeland Community Theater is part of this big image. So this is where the image is gonna be. So I don't really need Lakeland Community Theater's logo right here because it's actually on the image. So I'm going to, I'm gonna go over here and you'll notice that this is one whole row. So this is like one little module and then this is the whole row.  So I'm not gonna click on the center part. I'm gonna go out to the side row and I'm gonna click on it. Now you'll notice that there's a little trash can. I could duplicate this or I could hit the delete. I'm gonna hit delete. All right, so now what I'm gonna do is I could delete this whole row but instead I wanna change this image right here. So I'm gonna click on this module right here and then you'll notice that over here is a content panel with content properties over here. So over here I could click this button and I could move directly. I could change this around but really I just need to change the image. So I went ahead and I right clicked and I saved the image as so I've already saved the image. So I'm gonna go back and now I'm gonna click on this image and change image right here, this button. Next I'm gonna, I already did upload it. Let's go ahead and delete that out of here. Now I'm gonna upload. And I'm gonna find my Baskerville image and I'm gonna double click on it. Now it's gonna upload it into my file manager right here. Next I'm gonna click on insert once it's uploaded in here. All right, so now it's inserted so I could auto with it like that which is really how this is done because over here is the background. All right. Next is get your tickets today button. So down here I could just click on this button and then once I click on the button there's this little arrows which I could just move it. See that I can move it up here. And again, it was get your tickets today.  Okay, it could change your font if you highlight this you could change your font. You do career Georgia. I'll just leave it at global font, that's fine. I could also change the size if I wanna go larger, right? And in the other video it showed how to add the color picker to your Google Chrome extension. So if I was wanting to make this button gold I could click on this color picker eye dropper and see what the code is for this gold which is C4A556, click it. I'm just gonna copy that code.  So you see it's blue right now so I'm going to go ahead and it has to be pound and then whatever the color code is. All right, so it looks like the writing right here is white. So I'm gonna go back and the text color right here. I'm just gonna click on it. I'm gonna choose the white. There we go. And over here you can of course go to the left take it to the right, center it up. You can do different line heights. You can do border radius. No radius makes it a square. So it looks like we're more at a square. But now we gotta get the link that way when they click on this button and it sends them to the link that it does over here. So right here, if I click on it it will redirect us to app.arts-people.com so I am just going to copy this. Now of course this is an old email template so now that's been updated but just for the purpose of this I'm gonna click on it and then I'm gonna, so this says action. What action do you want it to take whenever you click on this button we want it to send to the URL. And I'm gonna go ahead and click save changes. It's probably a good idea that after every single change you make to hit save changes because I've backed out of here plenty of times before by accident. All right, so next now we have this date so I'm just gonna copy this date and I'm just gonna post it right here. So I'm just gonna highlight over top of this and then I'm gonna right click and paste. So it's, let's see here. You can just basically highlight it and then select the global font we want to highlight it. Make it a lot bigger, so let's try 26. There we go, it's a lot better. We can center it up. We can change the text color to white. So what color, no it was like an orange. Now we could get the exact orange if we wanted to. Let's go ahead and get the exact orange. So we're gonna go back and do the color picker and we're gonna hover over the orange and we'll click it and then this is our color. Let's go ahead and I'm gonna highlight this, click on the text color. Now this is the background color but you want the text color, all right? So you wanna notice that there's a custom so you click on the word custom and right here is the color code and I'm just gonna paste in the color code. There we go, now that's the exact color code. Looks like this is white around the button and white around the date so let's go ahead and I'm gonna click right here. So in this particular one, this is a background color 3F, 3F, 3F, 3F but we want white, all right? So we're gonna change this to white right here. So click on the content background color, change it to white. Now, this is white writing so you'll notice that that's going to disappear so because it's white, all right? What I'm gonna do is I'm just gonna maybe click on this and delete this module right here, all right? So it looks like if I click on this module, see how much space that there is in between this? There's not a lot of space in between this area right here. So what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna go right here is the padding and I'm gonna, right now it's at 20 so let me just take it to zero. Could do is we could, because it's not letting us take away that padding for some reason. So what I could do is I could click on this content panel where it says text right here and I could slide this right here and I could copy this, I could delete this out of here. Now, since I messed up there, what I could do is I could hit this undo button and then I'll put it back. So let me go ahead and try this again. Here we'll need to do that. Click in, just center it up. Global font, we'll do 22.  Grab this orange, copy, click on the text color, custom. Go to the pound sign and then paste in the color. There we go, looks a lot better. Again, there is still some padding on here so we could reduce that padding. Also right here, this module right here, the button module, that also has some padding so we could reduce that padding. So we'll just kind of play around with it. There's different options. Could shorten up your button. Again, you can just kind of play around with it until you find a little model you want. So on this one, we need this gray background color. So go back and on this one, we are gonna click on the outside row to get to the content background color. There we go, turns it to gray. This wording, this text basically. All right, so now I'm gonna go back to the content because it says there's no content here, drag from new content panel. So I'm gonna click on the content panel and I'm gonna drag the text until, it doesn't matter whether it's above it or below it. Let go of it. Now I am going to highlight this, text that's in there and paste in the text, all right? So it's putting some weird little spacing in there for some reason. Again, we're just pulling it from a different email template. So there could be some formatting inside that email that we can't see, all right? So we're just going to make this text just a little bit bigger. Let's get on that. We probably have a 13 or 14, 13 looks about right. All right? So it does look like it has some padding on this one. Looks like there's just a little bit of padding right there. Not too much, but a little bit. And I was gonna hover my mouse over these, wordings just to see if there's any additional links in there. Again, there's not. So I am going to go to the color picker and I'm gonna find out what orange this is. There we go. Copy this orange color. Gonna go back and this About Baskerville Sherlock Holmes mystery is all orange. So I'm gonna highlight this. Gonna go up to the text color, click on it. Gonna go to custom. And I'm gonna insert that orange into it. But it looks like it's boldened and maybe just a little bit bigger just because it's a title. So I'm gonna highlight it again, click on bold. And let's go ahead and take it up a couple. Let's get up to 16. All right? And this kind of looks a little bit bold. Now the font could look different because they might have different font on there that we can't see. So we must around with it kind of see the homa maybe it'd be possibility. Maybe this is all 16. And you just kind of play around with it. Looks like you read it better with the 16. This one maybe 18. So you just kind of play around with it a little bit and then right here, highlight safety updates. And then it looks like my color is still selected there. So I'm just gonna click on it and bolden it. All right. So next it looks like we need a show times and pricing information section. So we could do again, we could just go ahead and let's see here. Here's an orange. So I'm gonna go ahead and select a different row to add in there. Drag it here and select text or hit content. Throw in some text right here. I'm gonna select this row and I'm gonna change it to orange. And again, color picker. Add this orange. Copy it to the back. You change the padding again in there. I believe it's centered up and it's white. So we're going to click on this. I'm just gonna highlight it. There we go. I'm gonna highlight it. Change it to white. Bolden it. Center it up. Select the size. And you can tell it's not the same. You can kind of tell that this one is, they're not the same text. So that's why it looks a little bit different. So let's see here. STP and I. So let's see if we can find STP or I. So you're gonna notice this T is just a straight line and a straight line down. This is more of a, more of a Times New Roman. I think that looks a little bit more like it. Actually, it does look like it. Let's go ahead and take it up to 28. I'm gonna copy this next text. And we could just add a text module right there. And actually we don't wanna do that. Let's go ahead and undo that. I wanna add it in a different row because this is white and then it goes gold right here. So let's go ahead and just add a different way. We'll add a single row. Content background as white in the content. Now it says no content here. Drag from content panel. So I'm gonna put some content. Put it down. Paste it in. So this is bold. All right, so this one is bold. And it's a little bit bigger because it's a title. So we'll do 16. So we'll do 14, 14. Or I'm sorry, 16, 14. And we're gonna highlight it and we're gonna change it to black. There we go. That looks a lot more like it. All right, so again, different font here. Different top font here, different font here. This is gonna look a little bit different. We'll also do the black over there. And next, Lakeland Community Theater. I'm just gonna copy that. And we're just gonna go right here. And I'm just gonna do content and throw the text right there. Paste it in there. Centered. Again, there's some formatting in there that's not compatible with ours, but we'll get there pretty close. And we'll go ahead and do the color picture. It's gold. And I didn't have that pound in front of us. Again, make sure you put that pound in there for the color. And then Lakeland Community Theater is white, and then these others here are blue because they're links. So right here, we're gonna highlight the community theater. We'll get white. And we'll get the font up just a little bit. Kind of looks good like that. Stay connected. Center it up. Get the white, get the 20. Bottom padding. This was centered, so it's gonna center that out. And we got Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. So now I just click on this module right here. And then I'll bring up the options to Facebook, Twitter. And then you can select the different options. And it shows different icons that you can use. There's all kinds of different ones in here. I really like this one with the gold that really stands out. So now, again, it's Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. So I am going to Facebook, Twitter, Instagram is not an option. Pinterest, so I'm just clicking on the delete. And then there's LinkedIn. I'm not sure why it's spacing them like that. I don't believe these are all Facebook. I don't know why it's creating that little space right there. All right, I'm not gonna spend too much time on that. Just so I don't slow up this particular tutorial at the very end. Let's see if there is a privacy. No, there's nothing there, so. But it does look like we could add this at the very bottom. There we go. Go back to the social. So I'm gonna copy the LinkedIn address right here. All I did was right click and then copy the LinkedIn address. Go back, I'm gonna click on the Twitter right here. Change out. I'll be LinkedIn address, Twitter, and LinkedIn, right here. And now Save Changes. Let's switch this content background color because up here it should be white, like that. That looks good. There we go. I'm gonna undo that. I'm not sure why that's not white either, right there. Now, let me go ahead and click Save Changes. And right on the outside is a certain type of blue. Probably just gonna grab the lighter blue because it looks like a special type of, looks like a special type of, like it's almost like an image, it looks like, I'm not very sure. So for this out here, I gotta get a settings and then background color right here. And this is where I can paste in that blue. Back to content, make sure I hit Save. And right here, it looks like, I just need to leave that because there's a little bit of blue there that I don't want. And this one, yeah. So it looks like it is pretty close. Let me see if I can, I mean, very, very, very similar. Not bad for being able to duplicate exactly, not exactly, but very, very close. I mean, if this was being sent, you can really tell much of a difference. But yeah, if you end up receiving like an email template that you really like, you can go row by row and pretty much almost to a T, duplicate exactly. You just gotta go in there and kind of play with the settings a little bit. I didn't want to drag this out too much, but that's how you create a email template. I'm gonna duplicate another one.


Yeah, D-Led, last two weeks, it's been, you know, very similar, you know, losing out at the end. And obviously you put everything you got into it and you're frustrated, but we got to find a way, we get on that plane and get back and use this by week and regroup, put everything in there, find solutions and go win against New Orleans. That's the only thing we can do. Obviously, D-Led, we're frustrated. Anybody would be when you come up short. But we have to go, we have to fix what's been our issues and find a way to get back over in the wind column and get over the hump. And defensively, were they trying to make adjustments on McBride? He had four to 52 and a half. Yeah, he did, you know, they got the speed on the outside, he caught some things underneath. Obviously, he made the big play at the stretch when they took the shot. So, yeah, I mean, give and take. I mean, it's not what you wanted there at the end, but we have to find a way to fix it. You know, we've spent our achilles heel last two weeks. Yeah, well, yeah, I mean, a little bit. Obviously, the plan early really only had three possessions right in the first half. And a lot of that was because we chewed the clock down running it. We ran it. We had a huge emphasis to try to run it. So that was a little bit of it. And then the third quarter, you know, give them credit. And we got behind the sticks. They made a couple sacks, got us off track. We didn't do a good job executing. Regrouped in the fourth quarter. So he pulled his hamstring and Des came in and Des did a really nice job. He gave us a chance. And then obviously made the big play on the zone read. But unfortunately, you know, we came up short, Mike. Well, yeah, I mean, I think it's definitely has an effect. Yeah, we got to make a decision. Like I said, Des did a nice job coming back out there. I thought he kind of reset and he confident in them. And, you know, if he had to come in the second play of the game, the way he prepared and he didn't flinch. Like I said, he made it, gave us a chance to win.  I mean, the way these games are, I mean, they're also more one possessions. And it's, it's a small little things that make a big difference in a game. And, you know, unfortunately, it's been a few plays here or there. And we have to close the gap. And that's the reality of it. I mean, they're all kind of these one possession games. And we've been on the wrong side of it. So there are a lot of little things we've got to continue to work on. We've got to find any and all solutions to get us back over there. Well, I think, you know, obviously we took care of the football today. So that wasn't an issue today. But I mean, some of those are short fields right in the sun changes.  Where they score that touchdown there. Those little things, Mike, and it's not just one phase. It's an all phases. There's a play here there. And that's been a problem. Yeah, I mean, we've, we ran it twice. Like I said, you know, got, got a look we wanted. Got, they got a little bit of a game. I mean, we happy John for your pre-release. And Kyle, one-on-one on that backside, the way they kind of flooded to the front side there. And obviously we got flushed out of there. Yeah, it wasn't good enough. Very, I mean, they, again, they got to give them credit. You know, we didn't execute very well.  And it's not just on the line. I mean, there's everything that goes into it. But that's what you do. You regroup.  So we regrouped and made a couple of adjustments. That's what you saw us take those shots as we got going. So you get off track. It's hard to overcome some of those. We got to do a better job there. Moving forward, how do you all balance the, you know, self-scout first trying to get a break and coming back from the bi-week? Yeah, we self-scout every week. But obviously you take a step back. Here we are. Not where we want to be, but somehow some way we're not out of it. So we, you know, we'll focus on that, but we, things we can control on us, we got to regroup, look at everything, and find solutions. You feel frustrated, but I would not use that word.  You know those guys we got in here. I'm betting on them. Look, I got to go back and look at the film.  We felt really confident in the way we wanted to run the ball. And we did early. They made some adjustments. And like I said, we got off track, so it's not all on him. So Des came in. I mean, it's unfortunate, Taylor pulled his hamstring. You know, extending the plays. I mean, he made some of the play extensions on some pass plays early that led to touchdowns. Kept drives going. And so, you know, we'll look at everything. But it was definitely encouraging seeing Des come back in there. He was settled. He was very confident. Like I said, he hit me. If he wasn't, he wouldn't have pulled the ball right there. I can tell you that that play will tell you a lot. Because if you don't want the ball in your hands, it would have been really easy to hand it off. So that's a one assessment I can give you to state in the obvious. And not living in his fears. I mean, that's the same play. He basically, the ball popped out against Tampa. I know. Yeah. Yeah, I had to look at it. I thought we, I had to look at it. I thought we slipped a little bit going in. So, obviously, didn't convert. But I got to take a better look at it. You did. Yeah, that's why we pretty much operate. That's why we took him. And he's a dynamic player. He's got to bounce that one for a touchdown. He did a lot of things.  I mean, use them all over the place. And one or two, we tried to get the bubble. I was one that we botched. But he did a nice job today. Well, every game, game plan. I mean, all those guys, we got to get everybody involved. We got a lot of good players, but obviously he's, you know, as a running back, you can force the ball to him that way. And some other things he did. And like I said, we got to find a way to get over that hump and not be a couple points short here at the end of the game. But we haven't had them all healthy either. And then, you know, again, the game plans are different. We made a huge emphasis on running the football today. Obviously in the fourth quarter, we needed to adjust. They adjust. We adjusted. And we were moving the ball down the field pretty good. Again, it just wasn't, wasn't enough. Again, I mean, we got, there's a lot of things that go into it. Some of the, they had one pretty good drive right before the half. Then we obviously not given short field or help, whether it's by turnover or in the return game. And then again, get them to the third down. You know, we got to, it seems like there's a play here or there that we got to find a way to contain better. We changed things up. We had some pressures. We got them down with that. We didn't have to hold the covers and let them scramble. But yeah, we'll look at everything. I mean, we'll just look at everything.  I mean, it's just, we got to make an adjustment. We got seven games left and we're not out of it. And we're going to put everything we have humanly possible to do our job better and to go win this division. And that's all we can control. It's unfortunate. You get frustrated. And you got to look at everything and that's what we'll do. That's our plan going into the buy. And so, like I said, it's coming up right time for us. We need to, you know, reset and we'll be ready to, we'll be ready to roll when New Orleans comes into Atlanta. No, we're not making staff adjustments. I know, I know those are natural questions. We got the right guys in there. We look at everything every week. And we'll find a way to get these ones, Mike. I know those are natural questions. I'm not blaming you for the questions. I know it's like, just what happens, right? You're losing a couple in a row. Everybody's frustrated. But we got the right people in there. Thank you. Thank you. Yeah, a little stiff. You know, obviously been sent for four quarters. So, you know, just trying to get as warm as I can. And then it's obviously just going to execute, you know, the same way that, you know, often has been doing and been executing, been moving the ball, just go down and do the same. Like I said, I'm prepared and ready for this situation at whatever time it came. Yeah, again, you know, that's not really my decision.  And I felt like, you know, play here or there. Obviously you get that sack right there on defense. You know, you make a couple more plays on offense.  So all three phases, you know, there's just little things here and there that we take those away or be better in one play here or there. It's a completely different outcome for a lot of our games. A backer coming up in the A-gap, so I tried to get out to the left a little bit. I felt like we slipped, tripped, whatever. Obviously didn't execute it. Like we say, you know, you can't stop playing until the clock hits zero. We knew that, you know, that we were either going to have to go back and, you know, kick a field goal to win or obviously score a touchdown to win, whatever happened. So we knew that, you know, we were going to get the ball back and have a chance to go win if obviously the defense stopped them. Yeah, these next two days for us will be work days, obviously to come in, correct our mistakes.  Coming back and for when we play the Saints to be healthy, obviously huge division, huge rivalry opponent to be just be able to go down.


Let's say I want to make something like this King Tut figurine But I don't necessarily want to go through all the steps to add the tiny little details that make him so cool looking I just want him to be like all blue Nice, but wait, I meant light blue Sweet. Okay. What if he were multicolored? Porcelain filled with sprinkles Glitter. All right, you win But how can I duplicate the king in all his glory if all I've got is this three-inch figurine? the answer mold making material Mold making material is the best solution for duplicating all sorts of objects You can do statues fruit baseballs chess pieces phones batteries milkshakes Okay, you can't you can't do milkshakes moving on Let's get to the best part of mold making material how easy it is to use over and over and over again Here's how it works first you will need to make or find a box slightly larger than your object We like to use pre-made boxes such as milk cartons or plastic containers You can also make your own frame from cardboard foam core or plexiglass to properly fit your object The more space around the object the thicker and therefore stronger your mold will be Here we are using a milk carton for this King Tut figurine We cut the milk carton about an inch taller than King Tut and use the bottom half Depending on the weight of your object you could choose to glue it to the bottom of the box Now it's time for the mold making material You'll want to mix equal measurements of part a and part b until the color is consistent Next pour the mixture into your container and over your object then sit back and let the mold cure Three hours at room temperature will do the trick Feel free to poke the top of the silicone to make sure it's not sticky anymore before removing it from the box Cut the box open and pull the whole mold out before removing the object Remove your object from the mold by carefully wiggling it out and congratulations You're now ready to make exact replicas of your object You can use many different substances to fill the mold but we recommend art resin and resin tint to create an army of Well in this case King Tuts But of course you can pretty much do anything the possibilities are literally endless Who knew cloning could be such fun? Well, we did and that's why there's mold making material So go ahead make a copy and then make another and another and another and another and another and another and another Mold making material is available now on art resin dot com


The mission of Penrose St. Francis Health Services is to extend the healing ministry of Christ by caring for those who are ill and by nurturing the health of the people in our communities. Recently one of the specific opportunities for expanded ministries that we encourage faith communities to develop is home visitation. Hi Judy. I'm a 59-and-a-half year old silver quality person, but I really did a normal life. Emily is just a dynamic individual and she's always got a big smile and a friendly personality. We started off with weekly visits, but now we're doing monthly visits. She has shared some really powerful spiritual moments in her life that has happened since I've gotten to know her. To me, for her to tell me these things, I feel I'm a very special person in her life as she is in my life. I know that each month I have Emily as a support and that she will be here. When I see Karen, she always has a smile on her face and she's always willing to help. And she uses her talents and I think that's beautiful. Having home visits with these people, I knew I was safe. I knew they were Christian. I had no doubts about them and that when I needed help, they were there for me. After visiting with her and talking with her, I realized her husband was in an assisted living facility and I thought it would be good for my husband and me to visit with them. I just thank you that that church is only about two blocks from our house. It's wonderful. I can walk over there if I have to. I just thank John and Karen for coming and helping us because we needed that help. Joe and I look forward to it. It's a joy.


What's going on guys it's your boy DPJ here today of another Destiny video and today I have a new top 5 sniping players of the week and damn some of these clips are absolutely amazing if you enjoyed the video do hit that like button let's try and reach 3,000 likes that'd be insane if you're gonna reach that target now if you enjoyed this top 5 series make sure you turn on the notifications so you don't miss a single one subscribe for daily destiny and I'll catch you guys on that next one double down three opponents down pastic work I can't believe what I'm seeing Bravo team engage and execute all targets only five minutes left this is amazing one shot three kills one minute left