Hello, good afternoon. Good morning. Welcome everybody to today's webinar. It is 11.45 here in the Netherlands. So I would like to start with the webinar today called Managing Flood Risk in Semi-Arid Data Scars Regions. My name is Leneke Knope. I'm from the Water Channel and this webinar is part of the webinar series IHE Delft Online Seminars for Alumni and Partners in Cooperation with the Water Channel. So especially if I will warm welcome to all IHE alumni and partners. Now before handing over today to the speaker I would like to mention a few things. So today we have another interactive webinar and interactivity can be expressed two ways. So at the bottom right corner we have a chat box and in the chat box you are invited to pose your questions to the speaker. So we will collect them throughout the presentation and then at the end we will pose question by question to the presenter. And also during the presentation some questions will be asked to you through multiple choice questions and you can simply select the answers in the pop-up screen that you will see. Thirdly I would like to ask you one thing. Just to have an idea on who is in this room would like to ask if you can write down your name and the organization where you're from. So our speaker today is a fresh alumni of IHE from the April branch and her name is Adele Young. She graduated in water science and engineering with a specialization in hydraulic engineering and river basin development and her research focused on early warning systems of urban flooding in Alexandria in Egypt using hydrological data. Adele herself is from Trini.n Tobago and she has worked there for eight years as civil engineer. And in this webinar she will present an introduction to the concepts of flood risk management and also an overview of some suitable strategies to cope with flash floods in semi-arid regions. And having said that I am very happy to hand over to Adele and wish you a nice upcoming hour. Thank you so much line okay. Okay and welcome to everyone. Thank you for joining. I know it's quite early for some people so those who made the effort to get up early this morning thank you so much for being here. The topic it's a pretty broad topic in the sense of managing floods but it's sort of specific in that regard that is looking at semi-arid and arid regions and looking at managing floods in those data scarce regions. So we have a lot to cover today so I'll try to do this as quickly as possible and try to be as clear. So given overview of the presentation we'll look at the characteristics of arid and semi-arid regions. Why are they so interesting? Why do we want to study floods there? I'll give an overview of flood risk management concepts. This might be new to some people or it might be something that you've heard before just presented in a different way. And then what is involved in flood risk management, flood risk assessments, what data sources can be used. We'll briefly look at some strategies that could be applied to flood flood management and then finally we'll look at a case study in Alexandria. So the first question as Lenike mentioned, just if everyone could put their names of their countries I would greatly appreciate it. But the first question that I have today is really what proportion of the world's land surface is classified as arid or semi-arid? So if you can just put that information just fill in the pool at the bottom so we can see what everyone thinks. Yes, does everyone put their answers in? Okay, so just to move on with the presentation at this point, the answer is actually 33% of the world's surface is covered or classified as arid, which really seems as a lot if you think about it and with the trends in desertification expected to increase there's the risk that that number might actually increase as well. Now if you look at this map that I have presented here, you'll see that a lot of these areas is located on pretty much every continent. So it's anywhere that there's a desert, there's the north of Africa, the Middle East, down in Australia as well parts of China and also in north and south America. Now these areas, what makes them so interesting is the fact that there's really not a lot of precipitation. At times of the year they really go through droughts, but it also means that there's a lot of, they are also at risk of flooding. So it's a very unique situation, well, in a sense. And if you look at this table here, it shows that there really is not a lot of precipitation with less than 100 in some regions in hyper arid regions and with a range of 100 to 300 in arid and 200 to 800 in semi-arid regions. Also to notice that this aridity index is also a factor of precipitation as well as a potential evapotranspiration which means that it's not only about the amounts of rainfall that these areas receive, but it's also about that potential evaporation. So how much water they're also losing. So why are they so interesting? Really they're quite unique and different from other areas because of their climate and natural geographic features. As mentioned they have infrequent rainfall, they're subjected to droughts, there's poor vegetation in some areas, a lot of erosion, steep slopes in some of their catchments, and also high sediment loads in their rivers because there's a lot of deposition, use of high transmission losses and that sometimes allows heavy debris to stay in the river once the next flood comes. Re-precipitation because the storms that they have are usually of smaller frequencies, a low magnitude frequency of storms and there's a huge variation in when this happens. So you may have a huge plant one year or a huge rainfall one year and then no rainfall for two years and then another huge rainfall after that. These are usually short duration events with high intensity and the way in which precipitation is caused is also very important because this can either be caused by convection clouds which is induced by high temperatures or because of frontal rains which is the case in a lot of those North African regions along the Mediterranean. Now because of these characteristics when combined it's pretty much a recipe for flash floods which is classified as flooding that occurs pretty much within one to six hours of when the flood events occurred. These are usually very random events. The hydrograph which means how the water, the flow of the water is distributed, it's usually a steep hydrograph and it results in smaller total flood volumes. Because of that they can be quite difficult to manage and result in a lot of damage. Now these are a few examples of floods in our semi-arid region. The first example is in China which shows excessive flooding which would have occurred after several years, months of drought, sorry, in this region. And the second example here is in Alexandria, Egypt, which is the second largest city in Egypt. They experienced a huge flood in 2015 and also in Jeddah in Saudi Arabia. They also had a lot of flood after some time of dry season. It's also important to note that these floods also occur in urban areas. It's not necessarily along river banks or other areas of the catchment but they can also impact urban areas. Also to be noted is flash flooding in these Wadi systems which are very prevalent in Middle Eastern countries. As can be seen in this example in Israel, because of the lack of water, a lot of these rivers, they don't have water throughout the year. But when the flood season comes, it's actually when water comes and with that comes a lot of debris. This example here on the right shows the before and after of a flood, a flash flood which occurred in Sinai. And you can really see the disaster and the power of that flood as it rose, completely destroyed here. So we're on to the second question. Based on the characteristics I've discussed, I'm wondering just how many people are in these regions, in the arid or semi-arid regions. So another reason why I asked this question is because I also want people to know that because these floods are so stated with the characteristics of flash floods, it's not necessarily only applicable to arid and semi-arid regions. So a lot of what we discussed there is going to be applicable to anybody who experiences flash floods. So don't think because I'm not in the semi-arid or arid region, this is not applicable to me. A lot of what we covered here will also be applicable to you. So no worries there. But I see we have 25% I believe that are in arid and semi-arid regions. So great. Moving along. Okay, so here we go. Looking at just to recap what some of those challenges are. We have large amounts of flood water within a short period of time. That makes them very difficult to manage and to forecast. In those regions, they're also significant, insufficient rainfall and hydrological monitoring stations, excessive damage and loss. And due to the lack of rain, as I mentioned, there's a lot of debris. And that infrequency also affects a lot of the type of infrastructure that you have in that area. As compared to other regions, like other tropical regions, which experience a lot more rainfall, there's less agency in a sense. And then it's not really as a priority to really justify the cost and large infrastructure projects. And in urban areas, as I mentioned, this is also prevalent in urban areas. We have other external stresses such as population increase and urbanization that increase this risk of flooding in those areas. So how do we manage these floods? What can really be done? In order to answer that question, the first thing we have to do is look at what is risk. We really just try to define what is flood risk and really what are the components of flood risk. So there's three main components of flood risk. The first one is hazard, which is looking at the magnitude of the flood and the probability of occurrence. Is this flood going to occur every year? We'll look at it every 10 years, every 2 years, every month, every week. Next, look at exposure. That is looking at who or what is exposed to this flood, who is at risk? So it looks at the human activity as well as the environment. And thirdly, we look at vulnerability. So what is the susceptibility of a region to losses from floods? And vulnerability can be expressed as geophysical, social, institutional, or economic. Another definition of flood risk is also the probability plus the consequences of flooding. And this is also tied back into the previous definition, which looks at the consequences of flooding is expressed as dependence on your exposure. And your vulnerability, so they're all linked. So when looking at flood risk management, the aim is really how do we reduce this risk? And that's really done by lowering your probability, so removing your hazards, reducing your hazards, preventing exposure to people, and then reducing the vulnerability of society. So if we can do that, hopefully the idea is that we can remove or reduce the risk. And this is achieved through the implementation of several structural or non-structural measures, and the last of those can be either policy or financial instruments. So the flood risk management cycle is one way in which we approach risk management. So at the first aspect, which is looking at the pre-flood measures that has to do with anything with defense or mitigation, or just pre-preparation. And when looking at the operational measures, these are real-time. So anything that happens while the flood is going on, or right before the flood. So it's real-time risk management. And then this post-flood measure, sorry, which has to do with relief or recovery. So it really encompasses all of this, but in terms of your approach or the measures that you choose, it's really based on your specific situation and the requirements and the capabilities of the users. Before there was more of a top-down approach when looking at flood risk management, but now we're seeing the benefits of actually having more of a participatory sort of approach, where you have input from all stakeholders. And also, because of the nature of these flash floods and these floods in these regions, because they're such quick and very sort of unexpected, that they really need to be focused on mitigation and warning to save lives, because you may not have enough time to save property or assets, which you might have in other river and floods where you have more time and more warning. And lastly, an important concept to note is managing residual risk, because the idea is that as much as you do, you may not be able to remove all risk. Therefore, it's really important to have these other measures such as having evacuation rubes or flood excavation exercises that can really add towards dealing with residual risk. And also, as I mentioned, there's several stakeholders involved, which is very important to this exercise. Which takes us to our next question. Oh, I'm sorry. Who are the stakeholders present today? So we have meteorological, hydrological agencies, maybe disaster reduction agencies, water managers, consultancies, academia, and we also have the public. So I see we have mostly from academia and a few from consultancies, so great. And the public, great. So moving on. Now we can't discuss flood risk management without really looking at insurgency, which is very prevalent, especially looking at the future. So there's insurgency in the climate, and these events are expected to increase. So there's also insurgency in the population as well as other economical situations that could contribute to changes in the future. So in the wake of this, there has been a lot of emphasis on the need for resilience strategies. And by resilience, it's a word that we hear all the time, and it's synonymous with really being able to absorb disturbances and remain functioning and recover as quickly as possible. And this is best described or explained in this graph here, which shows that if you adopt a systems approach to this, that for the first degree of disturbance, you would resist that. But after some time, as that increases, you really want to be able to be resilient and be able to recover. But as the magnitude of the disturbance increases, you will reach a point where you can no longer recover. And then there would be a regime shift. And at that point, you'd have to rethink how best to design for this or how to cater for it. But in terms of resilience, it's not only limited to design or structures and infrastructure, but you also have to look at your recovery capacity when looking at resilience. So you have to look at your social and financial capital, which is really important to resilience. Now, the flood risk assessment is a key part of flood risk management. The EU directive in 2007, they mandated that all EU countries do preliminary risk assessments, as well as hazard maps, and then come up with the flood risk management plans. So this first aspect is really looking at once you can define what your risk is, then you can choose best how to address these risks. And one way of looking at it is using a source pathway receptor consequence model. So the first thing is looking at the source. Now, the source is something you can't really change. You can't really reduce the intensity or change the river flow or things like that. So it looks at identifying corresponding frequency of your hazards, identifying flood extent and the adaptive velocity, so that's looking at your hazard. Pathways that has to do with overland flow of the plains, over topping, that is something that can be controlled to an extent. And then receptors are the inhabitants, like who is at risk, the industries. That can also be managed, but most importantly, what can be managed is the consequence by these different measures that we put in. So just to go through the quick framework of flood risk management, you define your hazards, you define your vulnerabilities. That will give you an idea of your risk assessment. You have to collect data in order to do your hazard analysis and also to do your vulnerability analysis. Once you define that risk, you determine what is unacceptable and what is acceptable risk. The unacceptable risk, then you have to plan mitigation measures, which could be land use, it could be structural, it could be non-structural. And any acceptable risk, that is something that you have to look at and constantly look at and review. So as I mentioned, flood risk maps are very important. It's a way to visualize what the risk is. So it also presents information in a way that's understandable for non-technical users. So the non-technical stakeholders. So you can define a hazard map, which gives flood extent, flood depth, as well as velocities. This will be combined with a vulnerability index map, sorry, which looks at probably building conditions. It will look at socioeconomic data. So these maps here will produce using GIS data. So it also gives spatial data. So you can actually see where that risk is. And then once you overlay these maps, it gives the risk map. So once again, it gives a visual representation of what area is at risk. And these can be very useful in planning developments, so people know where to develop, where not to develop, as well as when planning evacuation routes. So one of the biggest challenges that we have in flood risk management and modeling even is really unavailable or inadequate data. And going back to arid and semi-arid areas, this is also very prevalent because of the infrequency of these events. There are not a lot of hydrological or data monitoring stations. Because they also occur in some instances on a smaller scale, they're not necessarily global archives, or they're just too small to be monitored or for that information to be collected. And this, in fact, hinders our ability to do or build hydrological in-endition models. And, of course, if we don't have available data, then we can't calibrate our validation models. But luckily, with advances in technology, there are now a lot more open-source data sites. And also, there's a lot of emphasis towards using citizens as sources, so crowdsourcing data or citizen science, where we can actually collect a lot more information. So I'm going to try to cover a few areas and a few sources of data. Now, I know it might be a lot of information, it might be a bit technical, and in the absence of time, I'm not going to go into detail of every one of them. But I think it's important for you to have the information here, so if you want to review it later, you can always come back. Now, remotely sent data, what that is, it's really just the acquisition of any data, not directly, but from a distance, from another point. And it's really changing the way that we access data right now, especially in engaged regions where we don't have a lot of data. And this is done mostly through satellites, the use of satellites. In particular, with precipitation data, which is absolutely needed in order to do flood modeling, there are a lot of satellites available listed here, like Trim, CMORF, or ERA Interim. These are all freely available, and they are available at 0.25 spatial resolution, which is cool, but it's still quite useful in some areas. It really just depends on the area that you are studying. And it has a pretty wide global coverage, which means that it covers a lot of those arid and semi-arid regions, and the two lacks also cover global regions. And in terms of the temporal resolution, that is also important in flash floods, because when you're trying to monitor intensity, which plays a huge role, you also want to have a very good resolution. So this can actually help. Moving on to DEMs, the digital elevation models, which are also very fundamental to building models. There are a few sources of freely available data. For example, the SRTM, which is available from NASA. There are two versions. There is the 90 by 90 resolution version, and then there's also the data resolution. These are actually quite useful in larger catchments, and it's really important to have good detail when using DEMs, because if your resolution is too large, then you may not accurately be picking up the variations in each apography. And finally, there's the AXA. This is provided by the Japanese State Agency, and this is actually one of the most precise DEMs that we have available. Once again, it's all freely available, which is the best part about it. Although it's not in terms of the resolution, it's not the best resolution, especially in urban areas, it may not be completely applicable, because the resolution is too coarse, but in other regions, it can be quite useful. So that's just a little caveat that you need to keep in mind. But in terms of that, there are other sources in terms of using LiDAR data, which is light detection and ranging data, but that is not really freely available, but it is probably the most accurate, one of the more accurate, I should say, sources of remotely sensing DEMs. Next, we have historical flood data collection. This is also very important when you want to maybe validate or just to confirm that a flood did indeed occur. They are these websites that are available. Once again, they're on different scales, and it is quite tricky for smaller catchments because of floods occurring on such small scales, it cannot be detected. But luckily, I was actually able to find some flash floods occurrences in Egypt, which are quite relevant here. So there are these three sites that you can actually check out, and they do give good information. Next, we have flood extent mapping. This also uses satellite data, but in this respect, one example is using these different water indexes, such as the Normalized Difference Water Index or the Modified Normalized Difference Moisture Index. These are actually quite useful in terms of flood extent, which as I said before, you can use to do validation of your models. So if a satellite takes an image on the day in which the flood occurs, then using the band, you can actually use these indexes to calculate or to give a flood extent. And there are many sources of these bands of this data, such as Landsat or Modest and Sentinel, and they all have different resolutions. You have to choose which is convenient to you or which is most appropriate. There's also the use of Sentinel-1, which is a synthetic aperture radar. This imagery has the benefit of, or I would say the advantage of the others in this respect, that it can penetrate clouds. So if you are worried about cloud cover, then these can actually help. But this was only launched in 2014, so it's not going to give you too much historical data, but in the future, it would. These actually, in order to analyze these, you would need these different tools. Luckily, these tools are all freely available. There are many tutorials online that can show you how to process these images, so it's quite useful, and you can actually use them. This is an example of a flood extent mapping that was done doing the NDN, MNDWI, for the flooding that occurred in Alexander in 2015. So that has a face-by-face resolution, and from this, we can see that even with that cause resolution, it was able to show that flooding did indeed occur. So land cover, this is another important data feature that we need, and you can also use satellite information to do this using the supervised land cover classification and using the Semi-Automatic Plugin, which is also available on QDIS, which I should have mentioned before, is a freely available due information system software. And then secondly, we have OpenStreetMaps, which is a great tool to map locations. So we actually, at IHE, we've actually used this program quite often in terms of mapping areas. A lot of areas that have not been mapped because they're in very rural areas and people just haven't mapped them as yet. So we've done different map-a-tons where we come together and we build on these maps, and there are a lot of mapping communities. So the idea is that afterwards, once this data has been collected, then people can use them, or you can use them in GIS as well to build a foundation for roads and buildings. So they're actually quite useful. Now, citizen observation for data collection is something that's up and coming in a sense, and what it implies is that you're using citizens as either interpreters or as sensors. And why I thought it was important to really mention this here is that in arid and semi-arid regions where we discussed you may not have a lot of data, this can be used really to cover it or to substantiate a lot of that remotely-centered data that you're collecting. So if you can see in about the resolution, this really allows more data to be collected or more specific or defined data to be collected as they can actually help with ground-true things and also social-mini-mining, which means that you have access to YouTube videos or Twitter. If anyone's ever reported a flood, you know, there are opportunities to look at where indeed that flood did occur, what was the extent of that flood perhaps, what type of disruption there was, what were the impacts. So there's a lot of pushing the community right now to try to use this data as it is. It can be quite useful, especially when data is not available. And that can be used for water level, velocity, flood extent, land cover, and topography in some instances. Another example in the U.S., they have a program called the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs Program where they actually use this citizen science data and combine it with existing data to come up with locations of where flooding did occur. So if you're interested in that, you can check that out. And these are a mention of some other projects that also use a citizen science data. So if you're interested, you can check them out. Okay, so this takes us to question number four. Now, this is just to see if anyone was listening. What is the biggest limitation of using remotely sent data in arid and semi-arid regions? I think I said it a hundred times, so maybe everyone will get it. And don't worry if you don't get it because this is all a learning experience. It's fine. Okay, so just moving on, the answer is actually C, the third one, which is yes, cost and temporal resolution. Because as I said, some of those areas are much smaller than say large river and floods. So you have to be very cautious when using remotely sent data. So the next question I have is, have you ever used a citizen observed data? So this is, have you ever used a flood image? Have you ever looked on YouTube to ascertain if a flood occurred? Oh, I'm seeing some news. That's okay. So as I said, it's really some research that is up and coming now that they're using more. But there is a lot of potential because people don't realize that every time you take a picture of a flood, if you knew exactly what to look for, how to take that picture, it can actually be quite useful. Okay, moving on. So we're going to come back now to looking at flood mitigation strategies. Now, once again, in semi-arid and arid regions, you are quite limited in some of the measures that you can take. For example, as I said, the necessity or maybe the emphasis may not be there in some regions because in terms of balancing the economy of it, because if a flood only happens every one in three years, then you may not be prioritizing. But looking at the mitigation strategies that you would want to take on, they would really focus either on reducing the hazards or reducing the exposure or reducing the vulnerability. So for example, detention basins, which are used to really store the water and to reduce flooding downstream, is a good example of a strategy that could be used in those regions, as well as clearing obstacles. So as I said, in some areas where the rivers are dry for most of the year, if there's a constant process of clearing obstacles and once the flood comes in, that would most likely reduce carrying debris downstream. River child improvements are also an option, as well as terraces or check-downs in regions on slopes that can actually slow down the water. Just to look at some of the other examples here, which would focus on non-structural measures, as I may have mentioned before, flood forecasting is actually a very attractive measure in the sense that it's in what we call a no-regret measure. It's something that no matter what you do, if you do it, you will see the benefits of it. And because these floods happen so quickly, it is a little bit more difficult to do. But as I said, you have to react very quickly so having that warning is quite useful. And also land use planning, knowing where to build, where not to build. These are more long-term measures that can take place but are also very useful. And flood insurance, which is something that is not necessarily available in all countries, is actually a very important measure that could be used to protect people in the future from disaster as it really allows you to recover a lot quicker. So in terms of the strategies for these areas, it really just depends on the climatology in the basin. As I said, some areas may be larger, some areas may be smaller. It depends on your socioeconomic conditions. But real and truly preferred solutions should be flexible. It should be a mixture of resilience and adaptable measures. And most importantly, it should case a friend's certainty. So just to... I believe I mentioned some of these things here before. Really, you want to have things that are no-regret measures where you're not going to lose anything by doing them and they will always benefit you. And then also having this balance of small-scale structures so it may not be necessarily a large dive or something. That's probably not suitable for some of these areas. But really having projects on a much smaller scale and also really an emphasis on nature-based solutions. These are ones that have multifunctional purposes and they have sort of environmental and societal and economic benefits. So for example, using these retention and detention funds, and this could be quite useful in arid and semi-arid areas as they can act as artificial recharges for aquifers. So that was just a few examples. Moving on to flash flood early warning systems. As I mentioned, it's a really important measure and in the SENDI framework for disaster risk reduction, early warning systems have been highlighted as a very important measure that should be implemented. And what it does is it allows you also to mitigate against these residual risks, as I mentioned previously, that risks you just cannot seem to design for. And you have to learn to live with these but it allows you to recover quickly and hopefully to make you more prepared. The approach, the system to early warning system is composed of detection, forecasting, warning and response. So it's not only just about forecasting when a flood would occur but it's also about how you issue that warning and where you issue that warning and where the warning is issued for and then finally response to really what sort of action is that you do take. And the level of sophistication of these early warning systems really just depend on the capabilities of the users and the technical capacity. It's also how to create the help, how severe these floods are and how frequent they are. So for example, along the Rhine here in Netherlands you would really have to have a sophisticated system because these floods happen every year. You know they're going to have these floods and obviously the Netherlands is at risk of flooding. But perhaps in semi-arid and arid systems you don't need very elaborate systems. So it really just depends on the risk that you have to quantify that. As I mentioned, I was talking about the Rhine. A lot of these systems are quite elaborate. So you collect your data, then you can use numerical weather prediction models as well as quantitative precipitation forecast in order to forecast the rainfall. And then you use hydrological and hydraulic forecasting systems to forecast water levels or inundation models to further extent. And once you have that information you disseminate your information. However, in arid and semi-arid areas we don't have that data. Sometimes it's quite difficult to build these models and they also require a long run time. And as I mentioned, because these floods occur in such a short notice, you may not have time to run all these models especially when you use these quantitative precipitation forecast. But these are actually quite useful, these quantitative precipitation forecast in the sense that they exist on different scales. So they can either be short term or medium term which has to do with the lead time. So they allow you to forecast maybe three days ahead or in respect of the medium term they go up to four to 15 days, for example. And this really helps to build longer lead times or to allow longer lead times but there's also a lot of uncertainty available with that. There's also a move towards probabilistic forecast which means that these forecasts give you more probability that an event might occur. So it looks like you likely heard that an event would occur. So in that respect it can give you the probability of occurrence of events and it also looks at uncertainty so it allows you to look at the insurgency of events as well. And right now there are many of these systems around the world but two that I will mention here is the ECMWF which is European Census and Medium Weather forecast and as well as the NOAA they have the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Now as I mentioned with these flood forecasting systems because you want to have a very short lead time well you may have a very short lead time you want to be able to make decisions as quickly as possible. And in flash flooding one method that is used is a threshold-based system and this method here, this one in particular it's proposed that instead of running these models you can actually directly compare critical rainfall thresholds with the forecast rainfall and it will take into consideration initial moisture conditions but in some instances maybe in urban areas because it's so highly urbanized and it's impervious that maybe that soil moisture condition is not as relevant but the idea is that you can do that and once that threshold is exceeded then you can issue a flood warning. An example of how that is used is the Flash Flood Guidance System which was first developed by the US National Weather Service and they actually, what they do is that they try to estimate the amount of rainfall for given duration that's required to cause a flood and these warnings are issued when they think a flood might occur and I was actually in a state recently and I received many of these flood warnings and this is just an example of how they might occur so it really is something that can be done quite quickly and it's very applicable to flash flood areas and it has been done in a lot of other countries such as in Central America and quite recently in the Black Sea and in the Middle East they are also using this method. So question five. What is the biggest hindrance to efficient flood early warning systems? I've given quite a couple of options here so is it data gaps, is it poor availability of data, is it lack of integration of risk information or is it governance or organizational issues? Okay, so everyone's chiming in. Okay, great, that's nice to see. So this is actually quite interesting because I want to say that maybe this was a bit of a trick question because the answer really is all of the above but the answer that I was really looking at was really the fourth answer which is the lack of integration of risk information and communication and dissemination of mechanisms because the reality is as well as you build these models and as well as you forecast it doesn't make any sense if you can't get this information out to people and people can't respond. So while they are all very important and they should be all considered having proper communication and dissemination is very, very important. Based on that, I just wanted to mention this very quickly which looks at impact-based warnings which is a way that we're trying to, they're trying to move warnings in a direction where you can actually have more descriptive warnings so people, it's not just about there's a flood, there's no flood but it can actually give you an idea of what depth of water, what area and so forth and what the impacts are most like, most importantly and this is an example of how it might be done operationally and this is what is used in my office in New Yorkie where they combine impacts as well as probability in order to issue warnings so whether it's a yellow warning or a red warning so it's either severe, there's a high likelihood or if it's just to be prepared or whether to take action. Moving on, so now we're at the point where we're going to look at the case study so it's really everything that we've talked about so far like how we can really apply it to an actual study and this would have been part of my thesis when Alexandria, once again, they have a Mediterranean climate but it's still based on the annual average precipitation it's an arid climate but it's one of those situations where they have a lot of uncertainty so one year they'll have 300 millimeters of rainfall and one year they'll have 75 millimeters of rainfall so it's really a lot of uncertainty and variability in terms of the rainfall it's the second largest city in Egypt and they have the largest ports and industry in Egypt and they have a thriving tourism industry but in addition to that they also have a lot of vulnerability so there's informal settlements there's in some instances inaducative drainage infrastructures and there are some low-lying areas which make them very susceptible to flooding, sorry. In 2015 they had a really bad flood it was probably the worst flood that they've ever experienced seven people died, a lot of areas were impacted transportation industries were impacted and it really demonstrated a lack of resilience in the country and what we noticed is that that region that Middle East and North Africa region because of their arid and semi-arid regions climate the studies have been done that have predicted that they are going to be more exposed to flooding this is all part of the anticipatory flood management project which hopes to increase resilience and increase participation, stakeholder participation it looks at what sort of measures that you can take before flood that would actually reduce the impact however in order to do this study there's a lot of work that needs to go into so part of my thesis was really looking at what sort of first approach that we can take while these studies are being done because all now the country is still at risk of flooding so what sort of interim or immediate action you can take so the idea was really to build an operational approach a operational based early warning system so this as I mentioned before would have used the ensemble forecast using these rainfall thresholds that would have been derived as well as coming up with a decision based rule in order to determine when to take actions or when not to take actions and then you can characterize that in a hazard matrix that will take probability into consideration as well as the likelihood of a hazard and potential impacts so the important part, another factor that was also looking at how to identify what those critical rainfall thresholds were so because it's also a very data limited region as I would have mentioned I had to figure out how to collect rainfall data how to collect historical data so I would have used YouTube I would have done social media mining when a flood occurred how bad was this flood so I would have also have to speak to persons in Egypt about their information on this flood as well as local drainage capacity data so this is a method that I use it uses what data is currently available but it can be updated once new information becomes available and once you, just to mention here very quickly that once you have these thresholds the idea is that to combine it back into the risk matrix so the hazard matrix that I showed previously and to see how well you could have used this ECMWS data which I would have used how well you could have used that data in order to classify hazards of past hazards whether they were there was a high likelihood of flooding or there was a significant likelihood of flooding and so on so this is why as I mentioned I didn't have any data so I had to go online and look for floods and I used YouTube blogs and newspapers and I was able to find that in 2010 there were floods so I used the historical floods for one period so I had testing or calibration period which was from 2010 to 2012 and then I used that to derive these different rainfall thresholds so I saw in 2010 there was a lot of damage and a lot of flooding for a 20mm rainfall and then I also looked at a flood in 2011 and this showed also significant flooding and this was for a 50mm flood a 50mm rainfall, sorry, excuse me so at this point I would have assumed particular thresholds and this also would have considered rainfall frequency as I said what is the design capacity of the system and just made some assumptions of what these rainfall thresholds would have been and assigned based on exceedance probability assigned any different classifications so no flooding, minimal flooding minor flooding and significant flooding so all these different things and as I said this would have been limited data once again but it's just really testing a concept here and how well it can really be used and as I said in my study I would not have I would have assumed minimal changes to the system as well as some more conditions did not have an impact because the system is so urbanized so here are a couple floods that I looked at the same 2015 flood as well as the 2013 flood and from here I saw that I looked at forecasting up to 96 hours and from this information it showed that you really can't really predict anything from 98 to 72 hours and 48 hours it's still not giving great results because if you compare it with the observed here you can see that in some instances it was able to accurately predict it in some areas it was not but up to 6, 12 and 24 it did show a good representation of how extreme those floods would have occurred in some instances not to agree but you can actually see in this instance when you actually had major floods it was able to predict that when you had smaller flood incidents the models did not perform as well and just to bring this up again looking at the flood extent I was able to validate some of these areas to show that flooding did indeed occur for this 2015 event and that would have been using information from the drainage department as well as newspapers and the University of Alexandria so it shows once again that the SAFLAID data here using this remotely sensed data it was able to help map a flood extent and if you have citizen science observed data you can actually go back in now and fine-tune some of that information that can be used to validation so, here we go, final thoughts I've just wanted to add just a few words I think a few important takeaways here which is really there is no sorry, there are many components of flood management but there is no one blue print it really just depends on what the situation was and knowing how to approach it really depends on that in iron and semi-iron areas challenges flash floods are challenged with flash floods due to the nature of a climate geographic and meteorological characteristic so you always have to keep those in mind when choosing what sort of measures you use and what sort of approach you take to flood risk management an effective integrated strategy requires the use of both measures and these can be implemented over the short term or the long term and you have to care for uncertainty and these must be resilient and flexible measures and in data sketch regions as you would have seen there are many opportunities to supplement the data gap for my research I would have shown that it is possible to predict extreme events and flooding and issue warnings so this is really just a first step but it's something that can be done initially and as you get more data you can update your system and then finally you have options so it's really what options are you going to take will you do nothing or will you wait for the data or would you try to capitalize on what information is currently available so that's it I think I'm a little bit over time but I'll take any questions now thank you very much Adele for your presentation your very clear explanations of quite a lot of content and complex issues so we have received a few questions to start with let me put myself up also there's one question from Simon and he says thank you for raising impact of floods and risks very relevant and he just received images from another colleague who is in Yemen in Mukalla showing severe flooding and he asks which organizations stakeholders in your experience should be responsible for the warning of floods like who should it be national or local governments etc maybe international organizations what is your good question and really and truly it is something that requires stakeholders to work hand in hand so for example in terms as I mentioned there would be detection forecasting, warning and response in terms of detection and forecasting those responsibilities are usually taken on by your mythological and hydrological agencies because they will have the technical capabilities of doing that but in terms of actually issuing the warnings what we suggest is that they work very closely with your disaster agencies and they should work hand in hand to actually issue those warnings so in terms of when a flood should occur and what not usually I would say the hydrological agencies but in terms of issuing what sort of what can be done like what response would be taken and things like that to alert people I think a disaster agencies should be involved in that but once again nobody is working singularly all have to work together and slightly related so the pictures that were just received is from a citizen and you mentioned in your presentation that with just a little bit of maybe training or knowing what to post and how that added value could be made by the social media or the crowdsourcing of data and you also refer to several websites but is there something that you can refer to like an example that really worked well something that you came across a lot of literature there's a lot of literature one of the tables that I placed that article is actually a complete literature review of Juno's and particular instances where they have all used citizen and safe data so they have used it to validate information and also those projects some of those projects are actually up and running and are associated with specific projects with everything within the beginning everyone is trying to figure it out because I think one of the limitations of that right now is really how to standardize these methods of collecting data there are some examples and I think it's really a great opportunity for people thinking what can I do, I'm not really doing anything but people don't realize that the potential that they actually have we will also upload the presentation so the slide that you were just referring to is for everybody to feel also later on then I have a next question from Oklaia is there a difference in managing flood risks in urban and rural semi-arid regions can you say something about that even though you're a research focus person in urban? I would say that particularly because urban eras the drainage system exist so you have you don't only have for example in rural eras you only have flooding probably from the rivers so you have overflow from the rivers and that would flood but in urban eras you actually have flooding from your sewer system so that's really complicated things in a sense it's a physical the dynamics of that is added complexity as well as you have more exposure, more people are exposed whereas in rural areas perhaps you have a lot more flood plains so there's not as much exposed so there is actually absolutely a difference in how they're managed it also limits your measures because you have a lot more space in rural areas whereas in urban areas you're very limited in space and you have to be very creative next question from Johanna is there a level of confidence you should set to decide whether or not to warn the population can you say something about that well I think I think yes I think it also depends because you can have a lot of false warnings absolutely but I think this is something that builds over time when you look at your these forecasting systems and one of the important ways of monitoring like how well your forecasting systems are working is looking at how well they were able to monitor events and from that you can it's something that's constantly being tweaked in terms of your threshold so your thresholds don't stay constant if you've noticed that and you're constantly getting false alarms or they're constantly being underestimated and I think you can adjust that but absolutely there needs to be a level of confidence people have to have that level of confidence in making those forecasts then I have a final question by Okunbambi so what about the influence of the Mediterranean Sea or whether on precipitation or hydrological modeling okay the Mediterranean Sea well the case study that I did look at was only Mediterranean Sea discussed one thing I did notice or one thing I did observe about that whereas in some instances like flash flooding might be convective so it's based on like temperature right along the Mediterranean Sea most of their their rainstorms or their their systems are from frontal rain systems so whereas what that means though is that these forecasting systems they can actually forecast that rainfall a little bit better I would say then say convective systems where because they occur so quickly because of that change in temperature it's a lot harder to do that so in terms of the hydrological modeling I'm not sure if they were referring specifically to developing the model in terms of data availability but you can actually you have that data available and I do think it's compared to other regions it might actually be easier in that sense but once again there is still a lot of variability in those circumstances I'm not sure if I asked this question thank you very much for your presentation if people want to stay in touch with you I saw you shared your email address and what I understood is that you are now also working to publish your research and is there anything we need to know from you for the near future how to keep in touch no I think well my email address and it's a Gmail email address so I think I should be easily then I would like to thank you again and thank you IHC DEL for all the support and thank you for all the participants to stay here throughout and we hope to see you at the next webinar thank you very much


As we work through the structure and format of the numeracy progression, there are a number of terms that you will hear. If you need to revisit these terms, you will find them explained in some detail on pages 3-5 of the PDF version of the progression. Let's start with the structure. The numeracy progression is organised under the three elements of number sense, spatial sense and data sense. Under each of the elements, there are threads, which represent big ideas or important numeracy concepts. The choice of these threads and their titles is derived from evidence and has been the subject of much consultation and debate with both practitioners and experts. The threads are presented in pairs. Each pair is comprised of a mathematical understanding thread in orange and an applications thread in blue. The pairing of the threads recognises that numeracy is demonstrated by the application of mathematical knowledge and skills to solve problems in specific contexts. The mathematical understandings will be the knowledge and the skills that are mainly developed in the mathematics lesson. And the applications thread will be where the numeracy skills are applied in other learning areas as well as in mathematics. For spatial sense, threads such as positioning and locating may be particularly relevant to geography, whilst threads like data might be particularly relevant to science. Under the number sense element, there are five pairs of threads. Under the spatial sense element, there are four pairs of threads. And under the data sense element, there are two pairs of threads. The number and names of the threads may be something you wish to comment on when you provide your feedback at the end of March. Each thread includes descriptions of what a student says, does, or produces at increasing levels of numeracy sophistication. Each description is called an indicator. The indicators are grouped together to form a level. There are as many levels within each thread as can be supported by evidence. Each level has one or more indicators and is more sophisticated than the preceding level. The indicators within a level are non-hierarchical. In version one of the numeracy progression, the levels of the paired threads are aligned, but there is no equivalence of levels between different pairs of threads. For example, in level A of computational strategies, one indicator says, uses objects or fingers to count. And the difficulty does not equate to an indicator in level A of algebra, which says, identifies one-step rules in numerical patterns. There is not an equal time interval between the levels, as learning is very rapid in the early years of schooling and there is more available research. The initial levels tend to be more detailed than the latter levels. What do you need to do first? Firstly, familiarise yourself with the learning progression. You may like to print the PDF version. It is important that you take some time to become familiar with the structure, form and indicators. Begin by looking at the beginning and end points of each pair of threads to get an understanding of the range. For example, the first indicator of the rational numbers thread begins with, shares a collection by dealing out one at a time until all items are distributed and ends with the last indicator of, identifies the effect of multiplication and division on fractions and decimals. When you have scanned all the threads, you may wish to pay close attention to which threads relate to what you are planning to teach and within those threads, the levels where you think your students are most likely to be located. Once you are familiar with the progression, the next thing you need to do is select six students from your class or group. If possible, these students should represent the range of students in your class, so two high-performing students, two mid-range students and two students who may be experiencing some numeracy challenges. Next, think about what you are planning to teach during March and which numeracy threads are relevant to that learning. For that planned learning and the relevant threads, think about what learning tasks or activities might provide evidence to assist you to locate the numeracy development of these students. The activities you use can be drawn from any learning area. It does not necessarily have to be a mathematics task. It can be a written task, a practical activity, a group discussion on a problem or even a presentation. The choice of activities is up to you as long as it provides significant evidence of numeracy development. Evidence could be found in a work sample, your observations or discussions with the student. During March, across a range of learning activities, identify evidence to locate the six students on the relevant threads of the progression. It is suggested that you make notes of your observations and judgments on a printed out copy of the threads you are focusing on. You will be asked towards the end of March to enter your judgments into the online survey. Using the progressions in this detailed way will assist you to provide high quality feedback. Your feedback helps us improve the progression so that it is usable in schools across Australia from 2018. Thank you for your participation in the trial. Please contact us if you have any questions or need any further information. All the best.


Everybody forced here ripping 2022 Bowman's best baseball Hobby eight box full case number 18. There's your random results. You can always find those late sports cards. Let's go ahead and get started Take it easy legal Tell me about my fantasy pick right now. Well, you know what? Some people work on Sunday nights illegal. Don't give me eight hour time or if you know You want me to use it? Oh 12 hours. I'm gonna use all 12. That's sweet. I'll be my pick at 6 a.m. Tomorrow All right, good luck y'all Houston number one seed in the other Regions Houston I Haven't even I haven't I haven't checked today illegal. So now Many diamond rookie Joe Ryan twins Number to 299 atomic Jake Berger White Sox rookie refractor George Valera Kunya refractor Soto But I'll take I'll take Mike Trout if he's there Oh We got some nice colors coming up here blue refractor auto Taj Bradley to 150 for the rays of the red refractor behind it Raise Taj Bradley with a red refractor Fernando Tati's junior four of ten big big card Padres You love to see that El Nino get that one Mag refractor rookie Elliott Ramos Giants great start to this break Few packs in we got a red air Torkelson refractor judge If trout's not there, I guess I'll go mookie Coltie Couser refractor jazz Chisholm base auto astros drew Gilbert UFO trout refractor rookie Stephen Kwan guardians Last hole right truck global impact refractor rookie Nicola Dullo for the reds perfect timing so you can end and then the baseball is gonna start Low a there's no way there's no way he's even available a low a prospect dude I'll drop where it is Blake in there. I'll drive Blake Bob and masterpieces Bobby with junior J. C. Young refractor Alec Thomas rookie the backs base auto Cardinals one-man show Aqualava angels show hey, what's honey number to 199 and a refractor a Wilson Contreras Yeah, when they have a Stephen Kwan, they have George Valera John Kenzie Noel Jays de lauder They have a lot of pretty solid guys for here factory a lores Montero Mark doesn't think so, but I think so Rookie global impact atomic wander Frank over the rays L. E. Diller cruise prospective royalty refractor Christian Yelich refractor auto yarrow pomaris for the Giants UFO Christian Hernandez refractor Christian Pashay. It's told me you've been in this. I mean I'm Bowman's best you want Jason.  Yeah, there's no Toma yotas in this Mostly rookies and prospects Ford to go on that first Donneros Atomic twins rookie Joe Ryan refractor rookie say a Suzuki Cubs Bowman masterpieces Bobby Whit jr Valera prospective royalty refractor Javi Baez base auto Alan Serra for the Reds a green mini diamond Aaron judge 55 of 90 90 Yankees refractor Salvador Perez fire redet Mers refractor Riki Jose Miranda twins Pretty much this is pretty uneventful honestly Ran away with it kuma rocker refractor Riki Josh Lowe raise. I guess the league is probably just trying to get the top five That's about it Gold auto pirates Jordana de los Santos the 50 nice hit there 7 to 50 UFO Baccaro refractor Elijah Green Was it was there the one where the jacket in the water? They're talking about a legal Google impact no on our not a refractor. You asked her Mercedes That's tough man, that sucks one hole ruins your entire weekend Elijah Green prospective royalty refractor JC young pirates base auto term are Johnson very nice base auto purple is equal to bar color match of 250 for the Rockies You know a factor of Oscar Colas earth Royce Lewis refractor Boba. Shit. Yeah, I'm not sure I don't really watch golf all watch golf in the Sunday evenings when it's the ones the final The back nine of the final rounds Jackson shoryo refractor Riki George Kirby Mariners This is done dude green auto warming Bernabell 63 of 99 Rockies Some good auto so far UFO blaze Jordan refractor Shohei Otani you can like four putt to win Never played Bob I imagine I'm probably pretty amazing no handicap just you know shooting like 63's and stuff Getting paid right now. Maybe I should try that. I've never tried so what if I am that good? Then I'll be the celebrity breaker Atomic rookie Jayrod Mariners there we go It's very nice refractor Kumar rocker Eddie Dela Cruz on the prospective royalty retin's refractor Albert Pujols Looks easy. I can do it Green refractor auto you're yelling helleys for the A's to have 99 Ridiculous there you go A's nice color match purple prices thought rookie Phillies at 250 There are people in chat probably getting so mad right now. We're just kidding guys I would be it's like one of the more difficult games for your factor Brandon Marsh Phillies. I'd be awful. I could probably shoot a 100. Oh I could probably do that Jayrod water Riki refractor says he cubs.  I can't work. I really stay Wednesdays anymore. I got to go golf Base out of guardians on Kenzie Noel Guardians UFO Cunha junior Salvador Perez refractor. Yeah, exactly illegal Come down here. We're gonna go play Many time in Gavin sheets rookie White Sox Number two two ninety nine. That's right Alvin. That's right Alvin refractor Jose Miranda twins. That's what Brad is Who'd just be like Yeah, I haven't played we're probably amazing quite pretty good at it James Wood, Bowman masterpieces Broxley, I'd be like, yeah, they wouldn't allow Brad in the NBA draft because he's too good Procure a factor Josh Lowe raise I kicked out of the league Shawnee and Donnie golf Rose. Yeah, exactly Based on her ads Alan Serta, please he shared the course of Donnie so he's a pro Your reds in an orange refractor red Sox Jarenda ran rookie. That's pretty darn nice right there one of 25 That's card red Sox and a base refractor of Elijah Green behind it I got this Water Lawler refractor Mercedes Coloss refractor Jayce young a Gold auto 30 of 50 they all are nays Orioles nice card there Good color on the auto so far this one Simon one refractor Oscar Coloss Part three probably I probably make it like eight shots He must have double billy or something Turn this is the best ball You play that's where we're hitting from. Yeah, it seems more fun that way That's how I'm gonna get Jeremy Pena Astros Nice Pena refractor Marcelo Meyer Trust me illegal Yeah, he models to swing at the Charles Barkley. Yeah, Jeremy Pena Bowman masterpieces pretty much Lera refractor Shane Boz Ricky rays Based on a Yankees tray Sweeney purple refractor here Chris Bryant Rockies color match to 250 79 to 250 refractor rookie CG Abrams Nationals. We got to start a Ballin it up with a Caleb refractor rookie. Tell him a Gilmets every like Monday or Tuesday I see on his Instagram story. He's had some basketball for it Yeah, what is going on? Atomic UFO Jeremy Pena Astros Rocker refractor Matt Olson. Oh Count me in on some ball Green rookie Otto Bobby win jr. We got him 22 of 99 Yeah, big card Royals.  I didn't know what he was Caleb's a good golfer though. Yeah He played in college Global impact to the Watson refractor rookie hunter green Reds The cabs could use me. Yeah, I'm down Don't have a mission be given to ball to me in the final two minutes Elijah green prospective Royalty refractor Freddie Freeman red socks auto Niko Kovatis With a green refractor rookie Jeremy Pena This box is loaded right here 43 and 99 green with Otto green Pena Yes refractor Bryce Harper so far this is looking like the best case of the night Abrams water refractor could Brian Hayes My cardio is really bad though. Someone good for six minutes again, but I'll put up like I'll put up like 25 points in that six minutes Jackson choreo refractor Dustin Harris Was it was it to you? Ray's auto Curtis Mead Jeremy Pena UFO refractor Gavin Cross. I don't think I was mid-sentence during the pain. Yeah, it's probably the main reason Oh, the Hornets are beating up. Oh, yeah, it's right tick tock no more tick tock Sean misses it a lot Band hammer Dropping the band hammer on on some fools Why don't you wear gloves? This is the first one how much for this how much for that? For sale how much for a box? Atomic Vladdie jr. Blue jays refractor Simon one Audio chance put on 32 Elijah green bowman masterpieces choreo perspective royalty refractor Christian Hernandez Oh, yeah, can I have that car? That's another fun one Based on our Rockies warming Bernabelle Aqua lava Julio Rodriguez now We're on a tear 115 of 199 It's a beautiful card The aqua color match Seattle There you go. Sam asks congrats Sam asked refractor rookie wanderfranko rays mini diamond boba shed blue jays number to 51 of 299 Air Henry Davis refractor rookie dealer Cruz Marlins But I do you accept like Like some crazy payment method Like do you do you accept cashier's checks refractor akunya? What was this? Was this live? I thought we were playing Canada today Who's u.s. playing today? No, this is live I thought we played Canada today Refractor Otto William Bergoglia for the Phillies The Aaron judge ufo refractor Luis robert Do you accept wire transfer We play Mexico. Can I pay you in nickels? Play Mexico tonight. Oh, I must look at I must look at tomorrow's schedule then Go cabrera rookie refractor Gabriel Arias guardians Hmm Either way should be good Canada has put it on great Britain. Good lord It's only six inning two Couser refractor garden alvarez Oh, yeah I pay with bitcoin or something like that. I was always a good one refractor Otto rays Curtis mead Blue refractor Christian Santana tigers 14 of 150 and refractor rookie Royce Lewis twins Water entity Volpe refractor christian mochero Vaughn, I just know verdugo and duran are going to go off against the u.s Atomic global impact die cut louise robert white socks Chase young refractor joshua bias refractor auto ye san moro bell for the rangers ufo lati refractor de la cruz Well, the thing about the world baseball classic is like It's a lot more lenient than other international sports as far as like What Like nation you can play for just so that there can be a bigger tournament Like if you're using a place that you were born in there would be like there would be like seven maybe 18 in this tournament like maybe That had a viable chance NFT is payment I'll always think about oh, yeah Just go ahead and sell your NFT for what for what you're saying. It's worth and then come buy the break spots that easy It's so simple. You got a melina global impact refractor petalanzo That's worth a negative money Vaughn I'm taking away your points on the account if you send me a picture of that rookie refractor jerry peña astros Great for an error now. Oh boy. This is is there a mercy rule in this? Gold lava auto astanle castillo raised to 75 Purple cabrion haze the 250 for the pirates and refractor rookie jake burger white socks Hey, good for you parker Jackson shoryo earth refractor mount castle tomorrow johnson perspective royalty into the Gutierrez Christian Santana UFO auto numbered eight of 250 tigers by Santana Ramos refractor akunya atomic ryan mount castle orials refractor rookie jack swinsky pirates Perspective royal team arcelo mayer refractor rookie cal rally big number a twins base out of dany d andrade Gold rodrick arias 10 of 50 yankees very nice parallel When's the giveaway whenever lane says it is kendall refractor james wood nationals ever lane says it is gold lava Dustin harris rangers another nice parallel 26 to 75. There's a base j-rod with that pack as well james wood refractor christian santana panya base brooksleeve laddie Twins another base auto here this time of yasam arsades. We'll get the microfiber to dust that one off for you before we sleeve and top load it ufo bayez refractor j-rod there he is the best at all applebees Canada has never made it out of the first round. Okay Well, they're about to right two wins and you're out, right? That's how it works That's true illegal illegal job is just gonna become joining breaks Getting lewis hamilton one of ones Sounds like a good workforce skill to have atomic penal on zone mets refractor bobeshet It's from our johnson perspective royalty a refractor of george kirby mariner's rookie pro giveaway winner Some people I mean some people do Go to the casino for a living william burgolia base auto fillies aqua lava penal on zone mets to 199 and a tiny refractor And I don't know where started my pros I'm just an amateur And he'll cruise refractor jaren durand I'm in like the low a of uh winning giveaways gavin cross refractor chris bryant Yeah, shawdon d league g league now actually rookie auto guardians gabriel arias Ufo montgomery refractor rookie torkelson tigers see more teams coming in for later sweet Football mixer at 16 just eight total teams between both of the donnerus five boxers. They're on sale everybody. They're on sale global impact Armando cruise got a mj melendez rookie refractor royals Yeah, that jeter baton. I was wild I think that was the last person on the daytime too jackson holiday perspective royalty refractor anthony rizzo Kendall's offering great deal here. I guess Refractor auto philips valerio for the brewers and a blue refractor red socks of jaren durand 145 out of 150 refractor tatsis Dude, it was just it was in the front of the shop joseph was in the front of the shop for at least a couple weeks mini diamond yasamur sades twins to 299 air sasizuki refractor termar johnson refractor henry davis Face auto brewers again headbert pares UFO valerio la cruz and refractor samuel muñoz. All right guys last one Oh boy Who's this? Shawnee and donnie Shawnee and donnie are here. All right, donnie's leaving That concludes this episode of Shawnee and donnie That was a quick one. That was a quick episode I Definitely progressed the story pretty well though Can't wait to see what happens next week.   All right last few packs of bowman's best everybody refractor jackson choreo base auto nationals christian vocaro That's a nice one there we go gnats Hit a lot of his autos tonight green refractor rookie brison stott billy's four of 99 No, he's stott. I think overall has been the best case 94 of 99 in the stott refractor montgomery culsan montgomery was usiana refractor natto Elijah green prospective royalty with a refractor of joey vato Last auto going to the nationals is a brady house great last box for the nationals Brady house base auto ufo santana refractor j.d martinez recap time We had a brady house anna christian vocaro oscar colas launay white jr. Hedbert pares felix valerio gabriel arias william bergoya yasem arsades dandy the andrade yasam warabelle Curtis mead william bergoya warming burnabelle curtis mead nico kevadas trey sweeney alan serda Sir mart johnson alan serda yaro pomares wanvin show drew gilbert's ufo christian santana The tiger's there gold lava estalli castillo true gold daryl ornaise A green of your every rebel on helice And warming burnabelle a true gold of your dany de la santos and a true blue of tosh bradley All right purple refractor jeremy paigna aqua lava rookie julio rodriguez green refractor of jeremy paigna green rookie auto bobby wit jr. The 99 And a red bernardo tatis jr. To 10 Very nice stuff. Thanks again everybody moving on to bowman draft sapphire


See, basketball is not an equal opportunity sport. You know who gets to shoot more? The better shooters. You know who gets to play more? The better players. It's not equal opportunity. We don't divide the number of shots by 15. Better shooters get to shoot more. So then what do you do if you want to shoot more? You become a better shooter. How do you become a better shooter? You put in the work during the unseen hours to earn the right to take more shots or to get more minutes. Star in the role you have, work for the role you want. If you think you should be able to shoot threes in that presence, you don't quite have that green light. Then come in during the unseen hours and make 300 or 400 threes before and after every single practice. You know the only result of coming in and shooting game shots from game spots at game speed every day before and after practice? You know the only result even possible from that? It's improvement. It's getting better. You make 300 free throws every day before and after practice. You know the only thing possible that will happen to your free throw percentage? It goes up. It's the only thing possible. And you guys are in control of that. Who do you all think is the best shooter to ever play this game? Curry's at least in the conversation, right? So at that Kobe Bryant Skills Academy, Curry was one of the college counselors. And I was just meeting him for the first time as well. Now this is before he kind of blew up and became the Stefan Curry that we're all aware of now. This was after his sophomore year at Davidson. And at the end of that first workout at the Skills Academies, he came up to me and he tapped me and said, Coach, will you rebound for me? Because I don't leave the gym until I swish five free throws in a row. Think about that for a second. As a standard of excellence, he will not leave the gym until he swishes five free throws in a row. You guys are elite level players and many of you are elite level shooters. That's a pretty high standard. Swishing five in a row?  You still hit the rim on the fifth one. It still goes in. You're still five for five. You're still mathematically perfect. That wasn't good enough for Steph. He'd start over. And if memory serves, I don't think it ever took him longer than 15 minutes to swish five in a row. So you guys believe he's the best shooter on the planet. I agree with you, but it's not by accident. And it's not by luck. It's because he's willing to hold himself to a high standard. However, this is not an individual sport. This is basketball, which means it's a team game. It's a we over me game. And this is somewhat of a rhetorical question. I'm not asking to call anybody out or anybody to raise their hand, but each and every one of you in this room, and this includes the staff, you need to know your role on this team. You need to embrace your role on this team. And you need to work your backside off to star in your role on this team. And here's the hard part. Even if your role is not what you want it to be. Even if your role is not of your preference. See, your role on this team is what coach Oates and the rest of the staff needed to be for the team to be successful. So you need to work to star in your role to the best of your ability, but then you come in during the unseen hours to work towards a bigger role. If you don't like your role on the team, if you think you should be a starter and you're not a starter, there's nothing wrong with thinking that.  And then you come in after hours during the unseen hours and you work on the areas of your game that might give you a potential to get more minutes or to start. You star in the role you have, you work for the role you want.


The United States has come a long way from its roots in classical liberalism and Israel has come a long way from its roots in socialism and has moved towards classical liberalism. So I want a world of classical liberalism. I want the Palestinians to be classical liberal. I want all of the world to benefit from the enormous prosperity and individual liberties that are possible as a result of classical liberalism. So why limit myself just to the United States? And the United States is in decline and the rest of the world can benefit from these ideas.


Louis D. Lee, I was 13th Sergeant Major of the Marine Corps. I'm Alfred L. McMichael, the 14th Sergeant Major of the Marine Corps. My name is John L. Estrada, 15th Sergeant Major of the Marine Corps. Carlton Kent, 16th Sergeant Major of the Marine Corps. Sergeant Major Michael P. Barrett, 17th Sergeant Major of the Marine Corps, 2011 to 2015. Be as good as you can. It's really not that hard to be a good Marine. Give your best ability, no matter what job that are assigned to you. Just give it your very best and things will work out. My best advice to Marines is to be the ultimate follower so that you can develop into the supreme leader. Never forget where you came from. And I never forgot where I came from as a private, all the way up to the 16th Sergeant Major of the Marine Corps. Because I always put myself in those Marine shoes, and I always say I remember when I was a Lance Corporal, how would I feel about that? I remember when I was an NCO, how did I feel about that? So the Marine Corps taught me to always remember, never forget where you came from. And I did that for 36 years. You are never going to get to where you want to be by remaining where you are. If there is something you absolutely want to do in your career, nothing, no obstacle should be in your way, go for it. That's my advice.


Deciding to adopt a cat is an easy task for some people. For others, it isn't easy. Well, if you're considering whether to adopt a cat or not, I'll help you get off the fence by explaining what to expect when you adopt a cat. Adopting or buying a cat can be one of the best or worst decisions you'll make. Wanna know why?  So what appears to be, may not actually be. What you know to be life, is completely different once that furry feline walks into your life. Does that mean that your life has to change just because you adopt a cat? Absolutely not, but I would love to speak with you in a few weeks and hear the same thing. It will happen gradually, to the point you may not even notice your life changing. So what is going to change? You have a new companion. Getting a new cat means you get a new companion. If you stay alone, adopting a cat will mean you're no longer alone, you now have a companion.  For example, you might be forced to turn up the heat if the cat is cold, even when you're hot. This action might be a small thing to many people, but the point is that you should be ready to accommodate and consider your companion and your decisions. More chores for you to do. Adopting a cat means more chores in the house. You have to clean the things you use in your cat, he can't do chores. These activities will include cleaning your pets' feeding plate, bowl, water bottle, litter box, bed, mattress, etc. Cats are very clean animals, so you'll be forced to do these extra chores every other day. You'll have a new sleep schedule. Already, you should know cats are corpuscular animals, and they sleep a lot. While your cat will spend most of the daytime sleeping, he'll be active most of dusk and dawn. Usually, these are the times you would be asleep. With your cat awake, he could also keep you awake purring and making other sounds. Only a few cats sleep all through the night. You'll be more attentive. If you're usually distracted and pay less attention to what's happening around you, that will change when you adopt a cat. If you're not attentive, your cat may make a mess of the place and cause problems that you would like to avoid. Your cat might injure himself, escape outdoors via the window or an open door, scratch and destroy something of value in your home, etc. See our posts on how to train a cat not to scratch and how to train a cat to stay indoors to help with these problems. Less privacy for you. As mentioned earlier, adopting a cat means you now have a new companion. It also implies you now have less privacy.  While the cat might not understand most of what you're doing and possibly cannot tell a third person, you're going to consider his presence. Cats are notorious for following their owners to the bathroom, but strangely enough, they value their privacy when doing their business. You'll be healthier. Having a cat around your house makes you healthier. According to NBC News, cats help you stress less as the sound of their perk can lower your blood pressure and be calming on your nerves. Also, since you'll no longer be lonely, they can positively influence your overall well-being. Furthermore, cat owners are less likely to die from stroke and heart attack. Hello. This video is sponsored by Beemix Pets. Are you looking for high-quality cat collars at an affordable cost? Check out BeemixPets.com. Use coupon code KittenLife to get 20% off. Bills will increase.  Your budget will include new stuff like cat food, medication, treats, trips to the vet, etc. See our post on the best cat carrier for long-distance travel if you plan to go out with a cat. Some apartments might charge you a pet rent. Owning a cat could cost up to $1,000 per year on average. You may end up taking out pet insurance or a pet plan. While this is not an urgent spend, it is essential to ensure you don't have to spend too much when your furry friend falls sick. Check out Pet Assure if you are interested in saving some money on pet bills. Pet Assure is a very affordable plan that gives you discounts for taking your cat to a pre-approved vet. You can get 25% savings instantly on medical procedures and services done in-house. It's not pet insurance, but it's worth the buy cause it's available for use right when you need it. You'll learn to be patient. Cats will humble you. They are not kids that you can yell or command to control. You'll have to train your cat to learn everything you want him to know, from commands to using the litter box, sleeping in his bed, etc. Training takes time, and if your pet isn't a fast learner, it'll take more time. You'll learn to be even more patient if you want to live with an adopted cat. More social media. There's hardly a cat owner on social media who doesn't want to show off their pet. Even if you're a person that doesn't like posting your photos, you now have someone to capture. Also, cats can be hilarious animals that will make you laugh more and give you funny scenes to record and share. So, you'll be posting more on social media. There are even dedicated cat accounts on social media, especially on Instagram. Of course, cats don't operate these accounts, their owners do. So long clean home. It is not that cats are really messy critters. However, they will find ways to let you know they live there. You may need to invest in those sticky tape clothes erasers.  It is inevitable. The fur just seems to float through the air and land where you do not want it. When shedding season arrives, prepare to brush your cat's hair just as much as your own hair, well maybe not quite so much. There will be the need for extra brushing of your fur baby. The main coon cat is a gorgeous feline, with long fluffy hair. That is likely one of the reasons you fell in love with the beauty. There will also be bathing to be done every so often and brushing the teeth, grooming your cat will become second nature. Then you also have the litter box that needs to be cleaned, daily. It smells, and you will want to avoid it.  Clean the cat box. They may find a mouse while they are outside, or even a bird and they are going to bring it to you as a present. To them, this is just another way that they show you the love they hold for you. You get to experience unconditional love. Cats are capable of loving. If your adopted cat falls in love with you, then you'll get to experience unconditional love in its truest form. You never can tell, your cat can save your life in an emergency. Mealtime will never be lonely again. One of those bad habits that many people have at restaurants, is one you will notice that your main coon cat has now. They will stare at you the whole time you are eating, if they are awake that is.  Which is okay, as long as it is not food that is harmful to them. We all have those moments that we just want to hug, a cuddle or someone to sit with us. Having a main coon cat is the answer to your dreams then. These gentle giants love to be held, at least most of them. Many of them will actually turn into lap cats. It will surprise you that he or she will want to cuddle up together, but do not be shocked. Even if you're having a terrible day, you may seem angry at the world, but this will not bother your baby kitten. This cat that you adopted will jump up and be there to help you calm down. They have a way of helping you de-stress. It could be that purring, it could be the way they need you as they are getting comfortable. Rest assured you will soon feel better. What you feel from this adorable cat is the same it hopes to receive from you, unconditional love. It is the greatest feeling in the world for both of you. If you enjoyed this video, kindly press the like button. Also don't forget to subscribe with notifications on, so that you don't miss out on videos like this. Thank you for watching.


So today I was scrolling through the endless waterfall of updates on our descent into hell that we call Twitter and news came across my timeline that Olivia Rodrigo gave retroactive writing credit on her hit song Good For You to Paramore meaning that Paramore will now get royalties on this song as well as writing credit. This comes after Olivia has been accused of theft by listeners from Taylor Swift and Elvis Costello and to make it all more messy she's also been accused by Courtney Love who's accused her of ripping off her iconic album cover. And for those of you who've seen the viral TikTok that mashed up Good For You and Paramore's misery business you may be thinking we've achieved justice and the world is now a more rightful place now that Paramore has been given royalties for this song. But I'm here to tell you this is quite the opposite and this is a trend in music that will ruin music and that the mobs of people accusing Olivia and other artists of ripping off songs is not getting justice it's unjust. So in this video I'm going to explain why Olivia Rodrigo giving retroactive credit to Taylor Swift and Paramore is a trend in music that will make music much worse for every artist. Hi I'm Jesse Cannon a music marketing nerd who's teaching musicians how to grow their fanbase from zero to ten thousand fans and this is Muse Formation. So obviously I just came in pretty hot but there's good reason for a quick background I spent two decades as a record producer with countless top artists and have credits on well over a thousand records so I have a lot of experience creating music and what goes into artist creativity and how to nurture it. So let's go over what's been happening. Olivia Rodrigo has come out with what will seemingly be deemed the album of the year in pop circles after being someone who is on virtually no one's radar before January of this year that is unless you watch Disney TV shows. The record has had three massive pop chart hits but more importantly it seems to be that rare pop record that really emotionally affects the listeners of it like no one has done since well three years ago when Billie Eilish did it I guess. But in the less than 150ish days since Olivia's debut sour began to be rolled out I've never seen an artist attack the way she has for the derivative nature of her music. The second she dropped the single deja vu accusations flooded the internet that since Livy did a vocal pattern that kind of sounded like Taylor Swift's cruel summer Taylor must get justice since you know justice is paying one of the richest musicians in the history of music for a vocal style she borrowed from someone else right. Next she dropped the song Good for You. It was obvious it took a lot of cues from early 2000s pop punk when I heard the song I just thought cool formula brand new in the verse taking back Sunday in the chorus and admire that she had taken influences from these groups as literally thousands of other bands did but I thought it was really cool to recontextualize those artists in a teenage pop context but apparently I was wrong as a mash-up of Paramore's misery business and Olivia's good for you spread like wildfire across the net which of course led the mob to demand justice and yes I am definitely not going to call this a woke mob because the woke mob is actually enlightened whereas this comes from an absolute ignorance of how music works but this mob demanded she give Hayley and Paramore credit so we should make it clear for those of you not following the minutiae of how legal proceedings work in the music business when an artist is accused of stealing from another artist there's a certain way this usually goes the only way legal cases have ever been decided to give someone credit and surrender royalties is when they rip off the note choices in both melody and rhythm in a song since after all there's only a few notes to work with and patterns that feel right in any genre and there's only so many ways to flip it over time before everything sounds the same and while you may think Olivia and these other artists songs sound alike sounding alike is not something that can be sued for well that was true until in 2018 a lawsuit was decided that shall we say blurred the lines of what can be sued for in music I am of course talking about Robin Thicke and Pharrell's bird lines you know the horniest song your mom will grind someone on the dance floor too at a wedding this lawsuit was the first of its kind and it allowed the royalties of a song to go to a song for sounding similar instead of being an actual note for note ripoff now many people including myself wrote about how dangerous this lawsuit was and it was pretty unanimous that this would be a horrible thing for music that will award older artists and discourage younger artists from creating since hearing blurred lines compared to Marvin Gaye's song gotta give it up it was clear a lot of creativity went into blurred lines to make it a new modern song but it clearly borrowed some inspiration but no less inspiration that is common in literally nearly every other hit song if you search hard enough through the artist's influences the reason this decision was seen as so wrong was it would open the floodgates for older artists to grab younger artist royalties as they had access to the feeling styles of songs oftentimes before the artist were even born but what many of us who've created a lot of music were concerned about was how many artists would be discouraged to create songs if this became precedent while we all have to create because we love music the idea that a rich old bloated artist could rob you of your creativity since your song was a little derivative of theirs doesn't exactly make you want to create and this lawsuit paved the way for that being a regular occurrence denying that nearly every creative work we've loved is inspired by something with small tweaks to make it emotionally your own denies the way nearly every song throughout history has been created but obviously what we had in these two cases with Olivia Rodrigo wasn't some old boomer making the accusations but instead an online mob who is immersed in what it's like to create something outside of tweets that bash artists all day just as the blurred lines case was decided by a judge who didn't get the creative bounds of songwriting and understanding the implications of his actions the brain dead mob thinks Taylor Swift invented a singing style that could be heard on hundreds of songs i mean really are we gonna allow the meagos to start suing every rapper who started using triplets after they made it prominent half a decade ago i sure hope not because i was just getting used to not having to hear that anymore but sadly we haven't even gotten to when the old people came for Olivia Olivia did a photo shoot where she was dressed as a broken down prom queen you know a trope we've seen countless times before and then Courtney love an artist who should know better as she was commonly accused of theft throughout her career and for not writing her own songs came to sniff at Olivia's wounds and see if she could draw some blood herself the accusation that Olivia ripped off holes lived through this album cover is of course beyond stupid seeing as this is already a cliche and Courtney made her version of it 12 years before Olivia was even born but what truly made it egregious is Courtney knows she took influence from elsewhere in fact the photographer of holes lived through this album cover had recounted in an oral history of the album that heard Courtney discuss taking inspiration from the movie carry and of course Courtney love looks just as different on the cover from carry as Olivia looks from this trashy rumored husband murderer i so i particularly think Courtney is bad in this case since she should know better whereas not all of that not so woke mob is just ignorant to how creativity works but in walks a twist of someone behaving the way they should Olivia's next accusation was for the song brutal for being a direct rip off of Elvis Costello's song pump it up you know a song that's 43 years old aka more than twice Olivia's age and this time it's actually funny since this comparison held the most weight as the melody and rhythm are exactly alike but just like an episode of Ted Lasso where you expect the person who would seemingly behave the worst to do that that's actually who ends up behaving properly Elvis does the right thing by replying to the accusation of Olivia's theft with this is fine by me it's how rock and roll works you know take the broken pieces of another thrill and make a brand new toy that's what i did look at that someone finally being real about how songs are created it's actually who had the biggest opportunity to be an asshole about it so let's get real here we're supposed to evolve and create from the past but that ability to do so is hindered when artists have to create by fearing a mob is going to suggest anything they do is similar to another artist this is a dark path to go down that is not going to be good for music if it continues and artists need to stand up when borrowing is just as equal to the way other artists have borrowed throughout music history i do think Olivia deserves some blame here in that there's no way she should have given Taylor or Paramore retroactive credit and that was her choice it's a bowing to a precedent in music that will only hurt younger artists and a trend that will hurt many songwriters who have the royalties and compensation for their creations to be treated the way those who created before them were compensated the very people they'll be paying off will have been able to borrow in the same way these songwriters have and instead get to keep all the royalties but because people have not been standing up to this unbelievably wrong precedent we will have misallocation of royalties to older artists and why fear the most is great songwriters and artists of today will be afraid to share their music with us if it sounds the least bit derivative of another person's work i want you to think about this since every single song you've ever loved is derivative of something and every one of the songwriters always knew which of their favorite thieves they were stealing from what if they held your favorite song back out of fear that they are just going to get sued instead of sharing it for you to enjoy that's a music world i don't want any of us to live in since it's a world without our favorite songs brianino once said music is a conversation and what's enjoyable about it is you're hearing the next part of that conversation artists give and take from one another and as long as it's not a direct lift that should be seen as part of what gives us great music not what should be punished if we're going to continue this trend young artists are going to have to pay every established artist for the rest of time and this is going to become a system where we just pay up to old artists with every song so instead of bullying artists that their song sounds similar to other songs stick up for young artists and make something new music is about emotions and alivia made an emotionally powerful record we should not be punishing artists who have to exist in a genre that has been working with the same melodic structure for 74 years as well if you want my opinion on who should be bullied that should go to hailey williams taylor swift jack antinoff and st vinson we're not brave enough to know that they have borrowed from other writers just as much as alivia borrowed from them and their silence when they know this is true it really speaks volumes and is exactly what could protect music from going to a dark place i hope they come to their senses all right that's it if you enjoyed this video this is what we discuss on this channel as well as creativity and how to grow your fan base from zero to 10 000 fans so i hope you like this video subscribe and leave a comment below if you want to talk about it more thanks for watching