Today's session I have called the harvest because whatever hard work we did for the past few days, we are going to repeat now. A lot of results will be proved today using whatever hard work we have done for the past few days. One of the landmark results will be the invariance of the adjunction space. The details we will see in the work follows now. So the first thing is three results which relate the weak deformation retract, the deformation retract and strong deformation retract. We know that these things are one, you know, stronger than the other, but when they can be equal, that kind of thing we want to see. So the first thing says is you take a co-fibration from A to X. A is a subspace which is closed and A to X is a co-fibration. Then the first thing is that if A is a weak deformation retract, then it is a strong deformation retract. The only part is what we need. If it is a deformation retract, it is weak deformation retract is obvious. So if A is a weak deformation retract of X, if we are down lift, it is a deformation retract of X. The next thing is namely B, if A happens to be contractible, then as if the entire subspace A can be thought of as a single point, homotopically. So the correct thing is to go modulo A, namely I identify the entire space to A and take the quotient space. The quotient map itself becomes a homotopy equivalence. So this you would expect always, but it is not always true. It is true under A to X co-fibration. So a nice space is this is true. Third one is tightly a different variation of the same phenomena. Instead of quotienting out A, you look at A as it is, but take homotopies relative to A. Then can you say that contractibility of A will imply, you know, anything which is homotopic will be relative homotopic to A. That is again not true. When you need this time, you need even stronger hypothesis, namely a point A naught, wherever you want to concentrate the whole of A should be a strong deformation retract. If A is contractible, A naught is a deformation retract of A, but may not be strong deformation retract. If it is strong deformation retract, then the inclusion map of X A naught to X A is a homotopy equivalence. So it is like all homotopy information now inside A wherever you want to control A can be obtained by just controlling point A naught. So these things are themselves very useful in homotopy theory. We are developing the homotopy theory here, you see from smaller chunks to larger chunks. So let us go through the proofs of this which are now more or less one line proofs because hard work is already done. So how to say something is a deformation retract when it is a weak deformation retract? Given a homotopy inverse R naught from X to A, remember the inclusion map is a homotopy equivalence. It is the same thing as saying that A is a weak deformation retract. So R naught A is the inverse of R naught, the homotopy inverse of R naught for the inclusion map eta. The eta is a homotopy equivalence. It is same thing as saying A is a weak deformation retract by definition. So take R naught as its inverse. Let there be a homotopy from R naught composite theta to identity because these two are homotopy because this is inverse of that. So let F be such a homotopy from A cross I to A between R naught composite theta and identity of A. With this much of thing we can get a deformation retract. The key is use that A to X is a O vibration. So go back to your definition of a homotopy extension property. Namely that is what introduction three or four. So I will reconstruct it here below. So what I have is A cross 0 to X cross 0 inclusion map. Here I have put instead of G in the original thing I have put R naught here now. This is the inverse of, homotopy inverse of eta. And F is the corresponding homotopy from A cross I to I. So we take this commutative diagram. This is automatic. That implies because this is a co-fibration that is homotopy extension property implies there is a homotopy H from X cross I to A which fits this diagram. Namely restricted to A cross I it is F. Restricted to X cross 0 it is R naught. So that is what I am going to use now. Hello sir. Would you explain the diagram one more time to say why it is homotopy extension property it shows? A is a homotopy extension property is the assumption beta. You see that this is co-fibration is the blanket assumption on the entire theorem. Okay. Co-fibration means what? Homotopy extension property is there for every space and every map and so on. This is this you can choose as soon as you choose this such that this diagram commutative there is a map here that is the conclusion. So F is extended to H that is a homotopy extension property. Okay so I am going to use that. So we have H from X cross I to A such that H restricted to this A cross I through eta cross identity is F restricted to X cross 0 it is R naught. But then H defines homotopy between R naught and identity of A because H X 0 is R naught. H of X 1 will be F of X 1 that is will be R naught. Okay.  But eta composite R naught is eta composite identity is identity of X. So we have got that R naught is a deformation retract. Okay.  All right. So that is the key here. Similar thing will be done for the second part also. What is the second part here? If A is contractable, quotient map X to X by A will be a homotopy equivalence. Okay. So let us go through this one. F is a map from A cross I to A is homotopy of the identity map with a constant map A naught. All point A going to A naught, A naught is a point of A. That is the meaning of A is contractable. Identity map of A is homotopy of the constant map. This time instead of taking A here, I take this space to be X here. Actually in the original general for any space Y, any map G like this and so on is there. So instead of that Y, I am putting this time here, I am putting Y to X itself. And this map will be taken to be identity map. So that is what I am talking bigger for. But I am reconstructing it here. Again you get a capital H here to fit the diagram. Here again I am using that A is a co-fibration. So this time it is this map. Here it became X and I. Instead of R, it became identity map. Restricted to A, it is homotopy to a constant map. F, A comma 1 will be a constant map here. So that is the homotopy, F. This homotopy data, this data co-fibration for co-fibration gives rise to this conclusion. Namely there is an H here which fits in the diagram. So what is the meaning of that now? Restricted to H restricted to 0 or H restricted to X cross 0 is identity because it is identity. Difficulted to F cross I, it is A cross I, it is F. So what are the properties of this H? H1 of XA which is H of X1, which is X1 here has the property that F of, this is F of A comma 1, which is a constant map A0. Which means all of the points, that is if A belongs to A, then they are going to a single point. Therefore this map H1 factors down through the map Q, constant map X, X to X by A. It gives you a map from X by A to X. So that is what I am calling as a G1. Because under this H1, all the points of A are going to a single point which is the single point identity X by A or this is one single class. So this is a G1 is X by 8X because H1 is X to X. Which is just, I am writing what is the property of G1? G1 is H1 is equal to G1 composite Q. Also the homotopy 2 cross H, now if you take, first take now see H is from X cross I to X. Then follow it by Q. That means I have quotient it out by all the points here. This also factors down to define a homotopy from X by A cross I to X by A. The points of A which have been identified here, they are identified here also. That is what you have is Q cross identity composite with G is the same thing as Q cross H. So what is this map G? G is again now identity map X cross A to X to X becomes identity map from X by A to X by A. That is the starting point. And the end is Q cross G1, Q composite G1. So it is a homotopy between identity and Q composite. Which means Q has G1 as its right inverse, a homotopy inverse, right? And that is enough to conclude that this is a homotopy 2 balance. The G1 composite Q is H1, which is homotopy 3. The last one is a special case. What is the definition of last one? If you have instead of arbitrary contractability, in arbitrary contractability you have just a homotopy from identity to the constant map. It is strong deformation rectangle means this homotopy is relative to A naught. The same argument will give you same argument, same G and so on. All these things work in the same case. But now I have the homotopy being constant on A naught. So that is extra thing here. So that will tell you that H1 is a relative homotopy. That means the homotopy from H1 to the inverse is constant on A naught. That is all. Whatever homotopy you have got there is a relative homotopy on A naught. It is the A naught. Which will conclude that XA to XA, you don't have to actually, you don't have to, in this case you don't have to go down to X by A at all. As soon as I, you know, halfway here, in this here, before going down, as soon as you got this one, this H1 is homotopy inverse relative to A.  Next, so now you know, many books just say contractual therefore you can collapse it and so on without giving any proof. I have given you a proof and the proof is correct only, only A to X is a co-fibration. In fact, we will have easy examples when this is not a co-fibration, this is not a fact. You can't just take X by A and say that it is a homotopic warrant or original X. So, next result, take a map from X to Y. It is a homotopic balance if filled only if X is a deformation retract of MF. Remember, MF is the quotient of X cross I and disjoint union Y by the identification of X comma 1 is identified with its image Fx inside Y. We also knew that Y itself is a strong deformation retract of MF. Now this result says that if F is a homotopic balance then X is a deformation retract of MF. Suppose we assume X is a deformation retract of MF. X to MF you have deformation in a homotopic balance. MF to Y you have a homotopic balance. If the composite will be homotopic balance then that is precisely F. Inclusion map followed by whatever you have what F at is identity is equal to F. We have seen that right. So, one way is clear that it is a deformation retract then F must be a homotopic balance. The converse, how do you prove the converse? I have already given you here the proof of one way. Namely, inclusion map is a homotopic balance. It is the same thing as it is a deformation retract. In inclusion map followed by F at is F. What is F at? F at is a strong deformation retract from retraction from MF to Y. So, let us say a composite will be homotopic balance. So, let us prove the converse. If F is a homotopic balance then again from this part of the theorem A. In inclusion map 4.3 will be homotopic balance. Because F is I composite what? F at the other way around. F at composite I right whatever. So, if two of them are homotopic balance the third one is a homotopic balance. I think this is one of the exercises. The very beginning. Hopefully you have done that exercise by now. Now you combine part of D in 4.3 with theorem 4.4 one which we have just seen to conclude that extended deformation retract of MF. Inclusion map is a homotopic balance. What are these? This just means that inclusion map of X in MF is a co-fibration. This was one of the one of the results part D of theorem 4.3. And the previous theorem says if it is a co-fibration and a weak deformation retract then it is a deformation retract. Weak deformation retract same thing as inclusion map is a homotopic balance. I repeat once inclusion map is homotopic balance and it is a co-fibration then it is a deformation retract. So, this was the theorem that we just proved here ABC 3 parts of the theorem. So, use that. So, we get the corners here. So, corollary is proved namely if something is homotopic to balance between two spaces the same thing as saying that the domain is deformation retract of the mapping cylinder. Now, we come to another. All landmark results in homotopic theory. Two spaces are homotopic equivalent if when downlifts there is another space W which contains both of them as deformation retracts. This is not just for fun. There is no other way to show that a space two given spaces are homotopic equivalent. This theorem is used deep in differential topology namely in cobaltism theory. Lot of hypothesis is there with that you want to construct a homotopic between X and Y they are manifolds. So, do that inclusion maps you construct a cobaltism between them then you show that inclusion maps are deformation retracts homotopic equivalences plus you know that in the case of manifolds they are co-fibration outs. Therefore, because this theorem X and Y will be homotopic equivalent. So, one way is obvious but here we are insisting that you are not losing anything. You are not doing anything great. It is if and only if this will always happen. So, that is if and only if part is what you are asking. If X to Y is homotopic equivalence you take W to be the mapping cylinder and we have already seen. Okay inclusion map followed by FFAT composite inclusion map is F. Now F is homotopic equivalence FFAT is homotopic equivalence I will be homotopic equivalence. That is all. I will prove the converse here now. What is the statement here? What is the converse? Converse is obvious I have not written down here. The converse is obvious. Why? Because X to W is homotopic equivalence and Y to W is homotopic equivalence means there is a inverse map from W to Y you composite to that is all. Okay. So, this W could be anything but to get to one you have to take if this is homotopic equivalence you take W to be MF. It need not be MF always. It could be something bigger also something smaller also does not matter. If it is a property that inclusion maps are homotopic equivalence is from both X and Y then F will be homotopic equivalence that is the whole idea. The X and Y will be homotopic equivalence there is no F given you have to construct one but if F is given then you take MFS the space W that is all. Now we will get some more you know some more results take a co-vibration X to Z okay. So, I have changed the notation usually A to X I have taken now X to Z is co-vibration every time I am assuming it says close subset okay. X to Z is a close subset then for every continuous map F from X to Y the inclusion map of Y into the adjunction space okay is a co-vibration what is adjunction space of F F is from X to Y so it is Z disjoint union Y points of X are identified with points of Y to F F and X of X and F of X are identified that is the adjunction space right the adjunction space of F always contains Y as a subspace that may not be subspace X may not be subspace because F may not be injecting right. Y to F it is inclusion map that becomes a co-vibration under X to Z is co-vibration okay this is like now suppose X is X to Y is an inclusion map okay then extending the co-vibration here from X to Y okay so X to Z was a co-vibration Y to A F the larger one gets becomes a co-vibration there is more general than that this X need not be subspace of Y it is for any map any map so that is the importance of homotopy theory okay so again co-vibration what we have to do you can't go on verifying it for homotopy exchange property for all sort of spaces you have a ready made proposition there 4.1 namely show that A cross I union X cross 0 is a retract of X cross I in this case what you have to show A F cross I sorry Y cross I union A F cross 0 is a retract of A F cross I that is what you have to show so it is very easy from corresponding statement corresponding hypothesis that X to co-vibration what I get Z cross I sorry Z cross 0 union X cross I is a retract of Z cross I okay so this proposition says first we get a deformation okay retract we just retract is good enough then it will become a deformation retract is what we have seen already so just retract is enough retract X Z cross I to Z cross 0 in X cross I retract means what on this subspace it is identity now you just define Z disjoint union Y cross I remember the adjunction space was defined as quotient of Z disjoint union Y right so if you want to construct some map you go back to the mother space here with certain extra property you have to define a map so that it goes down to the quotient space so here I am using the fact that the product I am taking is a compact space means a interval therefore whether you take the first the quotient here then take product or first take the product and then quotient they are same this was one of the fundamental result we have proved and we are using it several times okay so I am defining it on Z cross Z disjoint union Y to I Z cross 0 union X cross I disjoint union Y cross I okay here later on points of X will be identified with FX same thing will be I done here the second factor I there is no problem there this must be the Euler front I here okay so R restricted to Z cross I the Z disjoint in Y cross I Z cross I disjoint in Y cross I okay you take it as your R here this readymade function is here on Y cross I you take the identity over after that you have to check that it goes down to define a map from F cross I to F cross 0 is part of the F cross 0 union Y cross I on Y cross I will take an identity okay so if you try to prove this one directly you will see how difficult it is the thing proving the homotopexiation properties I am not saying that it is not possible alright but here the this proposition 4.1 makes the life very easy okay finally the homotope invariance of of what of a junction spaces take X to Z deco-fibration there is already say where X is a closed subset of Z two functions f and g from X to Y I am going to make a junction spaces if these two maps are homotopic then the extension spaces are homotopic valent indeed a stronger statement is true namely as relative pair the f comma y a g comma y why is a common subspace here okay f comma y a g comma y as a pair are homotopic valent this was done right in the beginning remember what is the meaning of this there is a homotope there is a map from f to a g okay which identity on Y similarly a g to a f which the identity on Y these two are homotopic valent relative to Y okay so that is a strong statement namely a junction spaces do not depend on exactly what f is but only depend on the homotopic class of f so this helps a lot in doing function in homotopic theory often you start picking up a map here but you do not pick up the map you you are actually interested in the homotopic class of that map and then you want to do something but then you want to say that whatever you have picked up you know it may induce something another one if you pick up something else no a junction space as far as concern the homotopic type has not changed so this is a very useful result so let us go to the proof of this one start with a homotopy x cross i to y okay from f to g we claim that now you can define a junction space of H of this H itself what is it it is z cross i disjoint union Y x cross i points of x cross i being identified with their image under H okay so that is H so that will also contain Y okay so what we are saying this a f y say a pair is a its topological pair and a g y another topological pair both are subspecies subspecies of the inclusion maps are homotopic violins is enough to say that they will be homotopic violins but what we are saying is they are deformation ray tracks hello sir yes sir can you say one more time how you made A H I mean yes how what is A H A H is a junction space of H yes say you a junction space is defined for every map yes I mean you used to say it cross i right yeah of course x cross i is not contained in z z this z cross i okay so that will come yeah I have just only claimed here I just had explanations will come now huh okay okay what is A H this is the picture see this is Y this Y here this is Y here X is a single point I chosen in the diagram this circle is your z okay where did X first goes to this point and then this Y is chosen as a path it goes to this point and it is homotopy means it is a path here right a homotopy of a point is nothing but a path in the picture I have to only take the simplest cases okay so the first point is F the end point is G when singleton axis is singleton map is nothing but the point right now homotopy is nothing but a path here here I have taken AG AF here this is why distant union z but X is identified with its image is it clear okay in this picture I have taken AG I want to say both of them are subspaces of A H here what is H it is it is from z cross i X cross i identified with its image here you see yes it's not a straight line now right it is you have to take the path whatever path the capital H is this is the edge junction space for H now is this picture is clear now what I have to show is this this part is subspace here and that is subspace there okay they are deformation retracts okay alright the argument is exactly symmetrical if I show one of them is deformation retract other one will be also deformation retract for the same reason in fact there is a t factor you have to reverse t to 1 minus t then the role of X cross 0 z cross 0 z cross 1 will be interchanged that's all so this part is Z cross 1 here this is Z cross 0 when you take the homotopy here you see we are actually doing much more than cowardism theory this looks like a cowardism when things are manifold here they are not even manifold but we have a word even kind of things here okay so these things will be these results will be used in a very deep differential topology so here is a proof finally you have to write down proof this is an idea again by this 4.1 what is the assumption assumption is X is a co-fibration X 2 Z is a co-fibration that is a standing assumption so I have a retraction Z cross i to Z cross 0 even X cross i okay this induces a different interaction R naught bar okay from A H which is the ejection space for H Y union over H Z cross 0 union X cross i okay let Q be Y distance union Z cross 0 union X cross i to Y disjoint union Z cross 0 and X cross i this is the quotient space this is a disjoint union this is the ordinary where this identification is taken place its restriction Q on to Z disjoint in Z cross 0 forget about this part that is a surjective map okay moreover for any F a closed subspace contained in the Y union this part check that Q inverse of this one is Q inverse of F union H inverse of Y intersection F this part I have written down only for people who have forgotten that product of quotients you know first take quotient and then product with identity map when I is compact is a quotient first is the first take the product and then the quotient this part is not needed for you now because I have actually proved that one but here I am actually proving that it is a quotient map okay so therefore what you get is that Q prime is a quotient map after taking the product therefore this part is nothing but Y union over F Z cross 0 because X cross i part is just hanging around there goes into this one so that is A F okay so this will show you that A F is a deformation this part what is this part this was deformation retract that is A F is what it is Y union H this was a deformation retract now this I showed that it is equal to A F okay so there is some it will take some time to understand why such things work okay you have to you have you will get lost in the notations here proof is this picture is tells you what is going to happen once you have proved that A F is deformation retract AG deformation retract is just changing T 2 1 minus T symmetric argument okay so you can stop here


A very good morning to everyone. It is Monday the 9th of August. I hope you're doing well. I hope you had a good weekend and Yeah, gonna cover to start with the flash crash and gold overnight already had a lot of messages in my inbox In terms of this morning, so I'm gonna cover that first But then also we're gonna talk about the fact that oil again is under some pressure this morning down over one and a half Dollars and this comes after extension of losses after the worst week since October last week We're also gonna talk about China trade and inflation from the weekend's data Updates on the US infrastructure bill and then an outlook for the week ahead with focus on US CPI report We're gonna get midweek on Wednesday But as I said, let's kick it off with with metals and with gold. What exactly happened overnight and Yeah, a lot of questions from traders this morning Given the fact that as you can see here, we've seen quite an aggressive Spike lower in the yellow metal in overnight trade. In fact, we opened in the futures market at around 1753 and a half We hit them at a low down at 1792 In fact, if I just put that on a five-minute chart, so this is much more shorter time frame You can see that move happened very quickly and shortly after the reopening of electronic trade on Sunday night So key things to be aware of here when I look at a chart like that And let's say I come in in the morning and you see a price reaction like this There's a couple of things that instantly come to mind. The first one is is there any major news that's come out but if there was major news then you would look at the other charts, of course and There would probably be some other Correlated move if it was due to a fundamental headline Let's say it's something ultra bullish. That's bump gold lower and Perhaps in context that could be a comment about power talking about Sooner tapering rather than later on the back of payrolls or that equity index futures should be sharply lower Yields will be sharply higher. So a keynote should be sharply lower So you when I look at the correlated move I can quite quickly see that look nothing else has moved apart from gold So that to me tells me pretty much immediately that this is a technical based move Probably exacerbated by things like stop losses being triggered the low liquidity. We're talking Sunday night here Don't forget. It was a Japanese market holiday as well Which is only going to exacerbate those market conditions And when I see the price structure like this and the move happens very quickly and rapidly and you see that Then recover the recovery as well tells me a lot of information Behind the fact that probably this is just a move That's been driven out of those aforementioned reasons because otherwise if it was fundamentals They're really initiating that then well then overall that move should have sustained not reversed two-thirds of it already So, yeah, I mean that's kind of what happened in gold on the daily chart I think the other part or variable that was quite important here was was a technical one You can see here on this rectangle. This has been a key point of inflection for the price of gold futures I'm looking at here pretty much year-to-date. We're going back to February March April price action here on the left-hand side When my mouse is that's been a good area of support as well in late June for the bounce and Following the payroll support on Friday We did see obviously a spike in the dollar which weighed on metal prices which move quite steeply lower through 1800 on Friday and but didn't actually break that key area But in the futures market overnight we actually opened below that key point and so I think as well Technically you're on the wrong side now of quite a key level of support And that would have exacerbated some of those moves and triggered some of those stops just below that level as well So, yeah, hopefully that makes a bit of sense Directionally from a trend perspective it I mean it definitely is a continuation play from Friday Obviously just following up from what we had on the payrolls report So that's not a surprise But it's those other elements of the technicals the liquidity and the stock loss loss is getting run But I think it's just created that spike. So, yeah, I don't think you need to panic just yet Otherwise elsewhere the dollar index Pretty much unchanged dollar index actually gapped up Marginally overnight, but it's faded that move and continues to do so just slowly through the European entrance here So at the moment as far as these major currency pairs are concerned Just a quick look euro dollar just coming up then as that dollar softens a little bit going through 7 a.m. Here in London through the top end of that range So worth just keeping an eye on your dollar any further price recovery here Given this the decline that we saw after payrolls on Friday So just definitely be using those as reference points then for the move back up So here then the pivot level just back above and and going all the way back up to really broader targets for the days and weeks ahead They are one today pretty nice level with around those previous areas of resistance after the rundown in price that we had through That would have been Friday's Morning and then further up from that range low and respective retest high that we had here Would be other areas as well of upside resistance and any further price recovery Cable then pretty similar amid those those moves as well So just picking up a little bit of pace and you can see here as well upside resistance behind looking at sterling futures 138 85 being the Recovery that we had after the initial dollar spike on payrolls But also those previous range lows that we were seeing through the best part of last week Elsewhere in the crude oil market We are just having a bit of a test down Towards the lows that we did print in overnight Asia pack trade which have held thus far So it's worth keeping an eye on crude We're already down about a dollar and a half at the moment and if I put crude on a daily there definitely is a Quite a key level you can see here marked up from a trend line starting from April retest in May July and to where we're at At the moment, which is also not just a trend line, but horizontally on the areas of Resistance has been an area that has generally been well respected. This is around 66 60 And so any further trigger on the break of that to the downside Could see a decent run lower 66 handle and then those previous lows that were seen going back to late May early June and then Later part of July as well So definitely worth keeping an eye there But it would be contingent really on a couple of things there the dollar firming up perhaps or also Some more apprehension about the overall global situation on COVID for sure Which we'll we can talk about in a moment and actually talking of that. Let's talk straight about it right now and In terms of a news perspective, so oil extending losses after weekly slump as Delta clouds outlook so Yeah, for oil, there's really a two-fold thing at the moment. You've got the fast spreading Delta variant It weighing generally on people's perception of global growth And of course this comes in the context of OPEC plus who will make monthly Supply hikes now of 400,000 barrels a day from August as per their previous Bealmaking and so you've got slowly increasing supply which should be able to get absorbed But it just so happens to come in the context of where people like the Chinese authorities in Wuhan have just completed testing on just over 11 million people Covering most of the city's population according to a virus control briefing on Sunday as they continue to try to get on top of some of The latest outbreak that's been seen across various different provinces in China at the moment and in the US new infections Numbers spiked to more than 100,000 a day on average. There's still heading in the wrong direction there as well in the states That's returning to levels of the winter surge that was seen six months ago and this has created then or resulted in a number of Financial institutions recalibrating their view about kind of Q3 Chinese growth specifically Goldman Sachs cut their Full-year GDP forecast for China to 8.3 percent from 8.6 percent Assuming the government will bring the outbreak under control in about a month Barclays as well. I think also downgraded their Q3 Kind of performance for China as well So this is all kind of in part playing into the crude oil Psyche at the moment particularly on the demand side Overnight as well. We did have some Chinese data. We had the latest inflation readings. So this is what we're looking at here the purple Line is PPI numbers. So as we're used to seeing a big divergence between that and CPI and core CPI numbers Languishing down here at the much lower levels The PPI of overnight for July the year-on-year came in at 9 percent This was against an expected 8.8 So it's gone back up after a temporary move lower that we saw last month Whereas Chinese CPI came in at 1 percent above the expected 0.8 But the slight moderation from 1.1 percent last month Higher crude oil prices and increased demand for thermal coal as China copes with hot weather Drived up prices according to the the statistics office in China that came out alongside those Numbers last night separately as well. You did actually have Chinese trade numbers over the weekend You probably saw those on Saturday Or if you didn't follow me on Twitter because I do tweet that type of stuff at the weekend China's export growth unexpectedly slowed in July following outbreaks of COVID-19 as we've just discussed While imports also lost a bit of momentum pointing to a slowdown in the country's industrial sector July exports in China We're nineteen point three percent year-on-year below the expected 20 spot eight percent Other things for the weekend to be aware of ECB's Weidman warns inflation may pick up fast and expected So here he is Jens Weidman the head of the German Bundesbank if you're not familiar with this chap He's right out there outlying hawk and the fact that he warned that inflation in the euro area could pick up faster than expected and Urge not to drag out the institution's pandemic bond buying program. In fact, I think he said Pep which is the pandemic emergency purchase program the additional kind of top-up QE program at the ECB He said to pee standing for pandemic not permanent So it goes Some way to show what his thoughts are at this point in terms of what the ECB should do with wrapping up those bond purchases Sooner rather than later comments here. I mean these aren't really going to shift the needle on the euro this morning or European assets because that's it's in fitting with the ends violence character The other thing is the US infrastructure bill. What's going on there? Well still keeping an eye really on the progress The bill cleared its last procedural hurdles in the US Senate last night Setting up a vote on final passage perhaps as soon as today. So we continue to just keep an eye on that at this point in time As far as the week is concerned, it's not that Busy to be honest certainly not to the same tune as last week, which was incredibly busy so kicking things off this morning Some some German trade data that's come out so German exports I can see for June came in at 1.3 percent above the expected 0.4 percent But otherwise today is pretty quiet Tuesday you get German ZEW survey perhaps might get a look in but again not really that dramatic in terms of Cultivating price movement. So then really the main focal point this week is on Wednesday And the reason for that is you get the US latest CPI report Expected at 0.5 percent month-on-month compared with a gain of 0.9 percent, of course that we saw in June Roughly a third of the increase in June was attributed to price gains in used cars Fueled by the supply chain bottlenecks that have hampered new vehicle production. So again With CPI of course when that comes out What's going to be key is looking at those pandemic idiosyncrasies to see how much of the overall contribution is to Those those types of factors to determine whether or not the underlying inflationary situation is changing With the general elevated nature of these numbers that we've seen Dictating then of course whether or not Powell is right to be fairly calm in this transit review or not So again the underlying details will be key, but that's probably the main highlight of the week coming then on Wednesday on Thursday We look out for UK GDP might get a bit of a look-in It's expected to come in at five percent quarter and quarter largely a function though of Reopenings and actually if you think about Q3 because this is Q2 data that we're gonna Generally be seeing Then in actuality you could probably say that that's probably not going to create too much of a market reaction albeit might hit the headline broader Press But couldn't the reason for that the rationale being the fact that given the outbreak of the Delta variant Some of that a reopening kind of momentum has probably faded in the last couple of months and then looking to Friday and investors will also watch out for the rising inflation Expectations as part of the sub readings that you get as part of the University of Michigan report that's coming on Friday This is the preliminary numbers for August From a Speakers point of view. It's pretty light for US central bank speakers comparatively so from last week we've got the Atlanta Fed president Bostick and Barkin from the Richmond reserve reserve bank speaking today Kansas City Fed Chief Esther George a non-voter speaks on Wednesday I'm sure some more will be added in due course, but they're the ones we're aware of at this point in time And so that is it gonna leave it there. Hopefully that was useful just to get you up to speed Monday morning I hope you're doing well any comments at all Just feel free to drop me a comment on the on the video below happy to help Otherwise have yourself a good day and a good week ahead. Take care


Good morning folks. Steve Rhodes coming to you live from the shores of sunny Delray Beach, Florida. This year, 11 am update. We have a sea of red out there. In fact, the only sector inside while there's two sectors inside the S and P 500 that are trading slightly higher. The XLV is up 30 pennies and the XLP is up 19 cents. Otherwise, everything else trading to the downside of the US dollar. You've got the Dow up 282 points by a tenths of a percent one and two three tenths for the S and P or 59 points. 2% for the Nasdaq 315 points 33 for the Russell one and seven tenths percent there over 3% for the semis. It's 122 point move to the downside. Gold's off seven bucks. Silver down 50 cents. That's a 2% move there. Lights recruit off a buck 85 two and three quarters percent natural gas off eight pennies. That's down three and a half percent. The 30 year treasury down 1.8 ticks. She's printed out at 121.24. Let's go take a look at that nine panel market update chart. We begin with the ES mini upper left hand side that formed yesterday. A roadsman to mitigate her top. It was that bearish and golfing candle that did that. Now prices headed back to its support structured area. That's between 4507 and 4524 spot. Now you can see it's well above its 50 day exponential moving average of 50 days at 1471. The spot is at 1618. Watch that at the end of the day. If there's a rate of change one day rate of change greater than plus 10% we're likely to see some type of bouncer bottom whether it starts at around 330 this afternoon or this evening. We would be looking for that the end queue right now trading below the bottom of its bullish structure profound into an area where had formed a prior swing point at about 1548375. Now price close below that we're headed lower. We'll try to figure out where that lower price would be. The dollar US dollar index is negating that this stage here it's TD nine count top that formed yesterday completed yesterday. All it needs to do to do that is close by 102.22. It has made the one to one A to B equal CD and therefore a various reversal candle would confirm a sell the D point pattern short of that US dollar index is likely going to go target is 1.272 expansion area. That's at the 10309 level. In the case of Goldilocks it is now trading below that really important level of support which is between 1983 and 1980. A close below 1980 would suggest to move back to the 1958 level or a test of the swing point from down here back on June the 29th. So we're trading below both weekly and daily profiles looks like it's next target 2353 light recruit attempting to form a new profile right now support level there is 78 24 natural gas. If it closed below 247 today it'll trigger an A to B equal CD to the downside folks. Stay tuned for the Trader Z show. But if you're up to start Wednesday please have a wonderful one. Thanks for joining us. See you again soon.


What's up, everybody? I'm Ibrahim. Welcome back to the channel. If you haven't guessed by the title of the video and, well, the writing on this box today, we are taking a look at a new wheel from NRG Innovations. They sent me, you guys know, I've been doing a lot of racing. And when you have a wheel like my 350 Alcaterra wheel with a big drop down for drifting, it makes it very hard to reach paddles. So that is why I would be using the Forza wheel. Get in focus there. The Forza wheel that came on the Fanatec because it's a flat, flat rim wheel. So this box is definitely going to help me out in the racing endeavor with everything that's going on. So that's enough talk. Let's get to opening this box and actually see what's inside because I'm not 100 percent sure. Right. So we're going to open this up very carefully because, like I said, I'm not sure all of what's in the box. Don't want to really ruin the beautiful energy tape, but I feel like we're going to have to in order to open this up. The dog over here, like, what's in the box? Is it for me? It's not for you. It's not for you, doggo. So, like I said, energy innovations, big sponsor of the channel for a long time now. Big thank you to them for sending this out to me. And we can take a look at what's inside here. We have a different box inside the box. You guys know when I got the Alcaterra wheel. It came in this really nice, you know, box with, you know, inserts and everything like that. Well, it looks like we got another nice, another nice box inside the box. This one's actually really cool. I like this one, too. I get so excited about the boxes that things come in. So, like I said, it's another cool box that I'm going to put on display in my office as well. So without further ado, let's take a look at what's inside. Oh, man. Thank you for trusting our brands. Enjoy energy innovations. And it has a really awesome cover on it, which means my dog wants to see, which means that it is some form of suede. So the dog's trying to get in on this. Oh, what, you want to get in on it? No. OK. So as you can see already, it looks really amazing. It's got not just a sticker horn button. As you can see, it's actually a full, like engraved horn button, which we're definitely going to have to use. And as you can see, it is not a dished spoke. So let's take a look here, take off the covering. And it is a suede and black wheel, just like my other drift wheel. But this one is a flat rim. I definitely love the way the spoke pattern is. This thing looks amazingly cool without the drop down, which will make it easier to get to my paddles. And I love when they come with these fancy little little material tags that show you what material it's actually made out of. This is a beautiful wheel. I'm definitely going to have to mount this on with this horn part on because that just looks amazing. Take a look at that. Take a look. Get it focused in there. It's not like a sticker. It's actually like an engraved wheel with the energy on the bottom. And of course, the energy on the back. The stitching work and this is going to feel really nice. Now, a lot of people would say the spokes being bent up in a weird way is weird for racing, because your hands are up higher. But there's two different styles of driving. There's that way or there's a way where you keep your fingers from going inside and you don't wrap in and you pretty much set them that way. So definitely going to be amazing. You're going to want to get this thing on the rig and get some hot laps and some race cars because the iRacing server and everything that I'm running with now. This is going to be a great addition to my wheel set. We're going to close this up. And, you know, having two beautiful energy wheels, specifically for drifting with a deep dish and not deep dish for racing is going to mean I don't have to use that phantasec one anymore. Definitely big thank you to energy innovations for making this video completely possible and for being a supporter of me and the channel for a very long time. I think it's time we get this on the rig and actually see what we can do. The dog over here. Say hi, Kai. Say hi. Oh, camera. We're going to get this on the rig and we're going to give it a rip. All right, so we got the wheel mounted on the rig. As you can see, we're going to pop this up to quick release. We did get the energy break button and everything installed.  We are actually in VR, so I'm using a secondary monitor to see what I'm actually seeing so I can actually touch the wheel and stuff like that. Definitely a very different experience for me, to say the least. So before we actually start doing anything here in our factor, we're going to take a little bit of a different look. So the force of wheel that I was using is actually a little bit smaller. As you can see, it is a 320 versus 350 wheel. So that's something a little bit different. But the biggest and best change is going to be right here on the side. How close my paddles actually are to my wheel. So I did have to do a little bit of modification to get the button in here to fit right. Basically on the button, but my pedals are right there. So my hands are going to be very comfortable. How I like to shift right on the paddle shifters. Now, if you compare that to the, you know, the drift wheel with the drop down spokes, there was no way I could reach the paddles on this. I modified the paddles, moved them around. I can actually move these paddles up a little bit more by moving the whole bracketry up slightly so I can adjust it a little more and move it all up if I wanted to. But it fits real nicely on the Phantek or any 70 mil hub. So we're going to actually get this thing on. If I could see where the hub was, there it is. Get it on the rig. And then we are going to go in car. And we are going to take our M6 GT3 out here on Long Beach, because Long Beach was supposed to be this weekend. So we're going to load in our tune. We're going to run a couple hot laps with our new energy innovations. I got to get gloves so I don't destroy the Alcatara. Going to be ordering maybe some carding gloves or something like that. So let's get to it. First person Long Beach in our M6 GT3. So already feeling the difference, I know there's going to be a little bit of difference going from a smaller 320 wheel to a 350. So it's something I'll have to get adjusted to because you feel like you don't you have to turn more on a smaller rim than you do a bigger rim, because you have more of a, I guess you would say a turning torque. So we're going to come out of it, turn our pit limiter off, which is also nice because I can reach all my buttons. And we're going to get everything heated up here. On this first lap and come in on a flying lap here on Long Beach Circuit in a GT3 with our brand new energy innovations wheels. The wheel already feels great. The thumb placement actually being up below the higher feels more natural for me in the position I would like to keep my hands on a rim. So it's very comfortable. The Alcatara feels really nice on my hands. But like I said, I'm definitely going to want to get some gloves and you can even run it this way with your thumbs on it. And it does feel pretty good, but you don't get that natural turn in as much. So we're definitely using this wheel from trying it out for drifting and to and stuff like that. But for today, we're hot lapping here because the purpose of this wheel is to be for racing. So we're going to see what we can do in a hot lap with the GT3. And already the wheel feels so much better than that leather for the wheel. The 350 diameter is feeling so much nicer. And is actually working quite better for me. The feel is more natural because I'm used to my 350 wheels. So here we go. We're going to take a hot lap here at Long Beach here. We're going across start, finish line, managing the bumps on the front stretch. A little mild turning. We're going to be crossing over and taking a huge breaking line, looking for a second mark. So we're going to hard break down the second gear, cut over. Kind of clip that. Don't clip it too hard. Manage the oversteer down the first through the dangerous fountain turn. Trying to almost clip our mirror on that wall coming out here, breaking at the divider of the wall down in the first. In the second, looking for our breaking marker down in the first there. It was a little bit wider than I wanted to, but right up against the wall that we're going to be cutting over, looking for our 300 breaking point right there, 300 hard break down in the first gear could have taken that turn much tighter on the wall. But we didn't, you know, get our breaking point exact. Managing the pumps to that section, hard break down in the first, almost clip in the wall, run the car all the way out to the wall here onto the stretch here. We're going to be going up into almost fifth gear. We're going to be shifting into fifth right before we start breaking. We're looking for that invisible 400 marker, which is right about there. Invisible 400 down in the second, cutting that rumble strip there. Going to bring it out, hard break in, kind of managing throttle, breaking a little bit. And a hard break in the first gear, a very tight final corner here at Long Beach. And a hot lap here at Long Beach is definitely a very quick lap. Usually about a minute 20 something for me. That one was a minute 23, not my fastest lap, but my line was not exact. So we're going to go run another one. And I feel like I'm already a couple seconds faster. I feel with this wheel, it's a little more precise.  That's not what we want to do. We definitely do not want to clip the walls here because you clip the walls and you're done. So we could probably get a little more speed through here and probably a little bit more speed to this section. What's our threshold? Oh, we are actually really high, so we're not getting as much off the turn as we could be coming in right there on the wall. I feel it's definitely helping me with looking at my wall breaking points. So overall impressions of having the 350 wheel on versus the 320. I'm more comfortable with it. It feels much more natural to me where I'm holding it and the feel of the wheel and just having the full rim around and not like the flat bottom wheel is going to feel so much nicer when I need to grab the bottom. And I will also be able to use this for drifting if I really want to, which, you know, we're going to be doing here on the channel. We're going to be pulling out some drifting with this wheel. That was a very skiddy turn. We're going to try and get one more hot lap here. Make sure you follow me on Instagram and Twitter, all the drop the description box below. Once again, a big thank you to NRG Innovations for making this episode possible with this race wheel. This is going to be definitely a great wheel to have in my arsenal with the R Factor 2 racing series and everything that I'm going to be doing with my friends as well as the iRacing series. And the big things are coming with iRacing and everything to the channel. So make sure you guys stay tuned and stay to my Instagram and stuff like that so you guys can see all the updates as they come by. I am not running the cleanest lines. Oh, and I could be a lot faster.  I know. Don't blast me in the comments. Racing the other night with my buddies and I was in 121s and him and I had an amazing battle for about 18 laps until a mistake was made and somebody stuffed it into the wall. But so I think that all about wrap up this video. I hope you guys enjoyed this. Once again, big thank you to NRG Innovations. Definitely an amazing rim and I love the solid and how solid the wheel feels. Can't wait to get into some intense racing with it. And of course, we're going to be drifting to fully test this rim out so there'll be more talks about this wheel and how I feel with the flat spoke rather than the deep dish spoke here on the channel. So make sure you guys come back and tune in. So as always, I thank you guys for watching. I'm Evil Rabbit. I'll see you guys on the track.


Welcome, okay, everybody here is from Texas, I assume, pretty much. So Texas, yeah, Texas forever, baby. I'm from Texas, but I'll get into a little bit later, like I'm not from Texas, I guess. I'm born here, raised here, went to high school, elsewhere. So is everybody ready to docker raise your react containers? Yeah. Yes. I wanted, I knew this was a single track conference, so everybody would be here, but if I had a multi-track conference, this is, this title, take this title. And you will fill an entire room. Just, people will be like, I don't know, I just know that I'm gonna, if I, if I don't go to this talk, I will be unemployable in six months. So I loved the previous two talks, I loved both of my endorse everything that I heard so far this morning. It makes me super happy that people are talking about the emotional and pragmatic aspects. Dave is a surprisingly pragmatic programmer, somebody should do something with that. I want to thank Saran for starting this hashtag. I actually follow it. I've never participated in it because I'm super shy, but I follow it most Wednesdays and sort of just look around. I get labeled as senior dev by people that I trust their opinions on stuff, but I totally, totally feel insecure about my code and about being a newbie about stuff. I started learning to program six years ago. We didn't have cool code schools and stuff like that, but I had a really amazing community of people that helped me learn and come up to speed on how to program and some very, very kind people took time out of their lives to, to pair with me and grow me as a developer and I'm anything, any success I experience as a developer is a result of a huge community of people. And so I'm super grateful that this exists. The struggle is real, like it's very scary if you're new and vulnerable.   So you're welcome. There's no code on any of my slides, I don't think. So yeah, we're going to talk about dockerizing or whatever, right? Actually, we're going to talk about midlife crises. A midlife crisis is complicated. Some of you have experienced it. Some of your parents have experienced it.  So this is my dad when he was just a shade younger than I am now. He shares my enthusiasm for fanny packs. This is not my dad, this is his brother. But it is my dad's midlife crisis car. And at school, a lot of kids used to come up to me and be like, is your dad a drug dealer? And I don't know, I don't think he was but maybe we had some sort of like breaking bad situation going on, I don't know. So I think we've gotten to where we sort of sit around and fixate on the mortality of the tools and things that we use and our current base of knowledge and that leads us to start making some rash decisions. Like hey, cool JS framework, right? The web reinvent itself every 45 seconds now. I wish it was 14 years, I live in JavaScript, it's every 14 minutes. So it's tough to think past the next framework we're supposed to learn or you become immediately permanently unemployable, right? So you've got to learn that virtual DOM. So I'm Brandon, I help run the front side. I think we're doing something kind of special there. It's a consultancy focusing primarily on these sort of front end problems and new tooling around that. We're working on a catchy slogan so that people know who we are. I'm totally open to feedback, just sort of spitballing here. So let us know. We're thinking about buying some TV ads and stuff, so we'll see how that goes. I'm gonna use the history of Rails and my experience is learning Ember, which is a client-side framework that's famous for being authored by an anthropomorphic hamster. So first, let's talk about the state of web development today and explore that a little bit. I'm gonna make some prediction for you if you are the type of person that wants to keep up with the pace of new tooling, language, frameworks. My prediction is pain. So the first pain point I wanna talk about is just keeping up part of it, right? Have you guys all webpacked your Docker file in Gulp yet? Why not?  That's like so last month. All the tools, just a variety of tools out there, you just stare at it, like opening the fridge and just looking inside there and being like, I don't know, there's like a thousand things, but nothing sounds good. People talk about this stuff like you're supposed to have evaluated these thousands of options and you haven't heard of two-thirds of them. Maybe this is a problem for people like me once you get too old. I don't know. Remember it's about three and a half years old now. Other frameworks have sort of have launched and come up since then. A lot of them, actually. I wanna know in what universe could there be 24 best JavaScript frameworks? Like are any of them actually any good? Like that's the saddest thing I've ever seen. Anyway, all right, so what's your favorite technology? Just you can, we can shout it out. Elixir, whatever, I don't care, it's dead. It's already dead. According to Google Trends anyway, literally everything that you use is now unpopular and terrible. So let's take a moment to remember Rails. Node shot it down at high noon at Framework Gulch, it's a sad day. See you at the Crossroads Rails. MySQL died so long ago that only the old timers in the room are gonna remember what it was back when we still used relational databases. Ask your grandma to tell you about those sometime. That poor MySQL dolphin. My favorite front end framework got killed this year because a library showed up last year and it's time for me to pack my stuff up and move on. Tomster, no, I can still hear his little voice, please no. All right, I think everybody will remember where you were the day that you heard that Ruby had died. So, man, this conference is a bad time to reflect on that, but we can hug it out, I guess. The thing is all of this stuff is totally predictable. So predictable there's actually a chart for it. And there's a company called Gartner that gets paid a lot of money by a lot of companies to chart where these tech trends fall on this cycle every, I think every quarter or every half year. And turns out once it's gained popularity, technology is harder to get rid of than Steven Seagal's to pay. So let's take a look at this cycle through the lens of Rails' history. How many of you remember this? And let's see if I've got audio. I'm gonna try to just, please, please make sound come out. Whoops, it worked. I wanna listen to that again, it's so good. Okay, so how many people here remember this? Okay, so if you have not heard of this, please do this at some point. Please go watch the Rails build a blog in 15 minutes. It was the technology trigger. It's the thing that launched this thing into the stratosphere of programming hipster awareness. And of the people who saw it, how many people saw it at a time where you were completely blown away? All right, those people are totally old-timers. But I wasn't even a programmer yet, but yes, you just dated yourself, sorry. I wasn't a programmer yet, but the tech lead from our team brought this and showed it to me and I was like, I wanna do that for a living. That looks awesome. He's like, it's not all this easy and he made me go learn Ruby first, but that worked out really well. So this trigger is marked by hacker news commenters and tech analysts that trip over themselves to present and rank and predict the future of tools in this phase. And then it hits this thing called the peak of inflated expectations. And I don't think he gets any more inflated than this, right? Let's reflect on how this was a thing. What? Where's my magazine cover? I want that. Ruby everywhere. Again, he started with Ruby. Ruby, the enterprise, it's like, this is gonna change everything for us, right? It will fix everything, it will fix all of your problems, all your dreams will come true. And you have these thousand tutorials where everybody writes a blog post and none of them actually help you understand anything.  And once you do figure it out, the promise of the productivity gains means you're finally gonna ship web apps ten times as fast as you used to, obviously.  You get the raise, you buy the house, you'll fulfill your wildest hedonistic dreams. And we'll talk about the real promise. That's not the actual promise, but that's the one that we sort of buy into. And all these inflated expectations also tend to inflate our egos a little bit. Like anyone who came before you was totally wrong and you are the one that's totally right. And come on, you're taking this baby to the moon. Except there's only one problem. Like drinking expired soy sauce, the fun can't really last. And you hit the trough of disillusionment. If you remember how Google trends informed us our framework died and there was much weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth. This phase is marked by prominent defectors. The thing that caused people to leave for your greener pastures is now causing them to leave for other greener pastures, go figure. So remember this, maybe you don't, hopefully, we don't have to get into this. This guy eviscerated rails and the consequences were never the same. This dude in a blog post literally offered to fight every developer reading it. It was amazing. So, rails still reeling from this like unstoppable attack left the opening for node to go in for the kill. And now rails is dead forever and none of us have jobs. So that's the amazing thing though, right? Once the super early adopters declare a tool dead, it actually starts getting to do some real work. You know technology is being put to work when it has to speak XML over non-restful end points. And this is where those blog posts are turning into book deals and a loose affiliation of enthusiasts turn into a real community. I actually like the word community. I like the idea of community. I don't think it has to necessarily equate to tribalism. And then all those enterprise dollars turn into race cars. So a little gratitude would be nice.  And there's nothing exciting or cool about quiet productivity. You don't get any more magazine covers. It's been a decade since my sequel died and did anything cool. But billions of dollars are pretty cool. Billion with an S, that's like multiple cool. Rails is like it's irrelevant whether rails is a good technology or bad technology because it's an entrenched and productive technology. Now you're seeing sort of the middle part of this, the early to middle part of this process again with front end frameworks. That initial spark of interest hits a few early adopters and then the hacker news crowd just like piranhas this up.  You've heard of this thing now. And then here again, being unaware of the pattern, we assume this new thing will solve all the things. This is where people new to Ember are astonished with how much work they're not doing. Does that sound familiar? And it's the hottest thing in the world for that moment in time. And it feels great, inflates your ego. And then suddenly the rocket ride is over. And it starts feeling like work.  And then if the tech survives that trough, some tech doesn't have the inertia to kind of pull it through or for some reason was so fixated on hitting that peak that it doesn't really survive the trough. You start seeing a light at the end of the tunnel. The tooling gets better, the learning materials get better. The community starts growing and stabilizing. And finally you get to that plateau where a bunch of people just become quietly productive and they don't really see a need to talk about it. Here's something I promise you will never see on the front page of Hacker News. Yeah, we've been quietly productive with Ember for about 18 months, it's pretty nice. Oh, that's boring, go home, there's nothing new there. So hype isn't an insult, it's just the process that we work by. These are the peaks and valleys of any successful technology if they make it out of the trough alive. And once you know this stuff, you can set yourself up for some career success, instead of being at the mercy of this cycle and feeling like you're being steered into a mountain. There are ways definitely to lose it. You can watch as your skills turn into commodities and become trivialized and devalued. You can burn yourself out trying to keep up. Or you can side with tech that isn't gonna make it. Or you can just opt out entirely and be a Fortran programmer that pays actually pretty well. So you can't be Gartner, that $7 billion is spoken for, but you could be like a trainer or a consultant during the peak. But as an individual dev, I think that if a tech doesn't crash in the trough, getting to that plateau of productivity is where the wins are. And how to win is actually sort of dependent on your personality type. And so all of this information is a little bit information overloading, we haven't really parsed through it yet, we haven't taught you how to pick the technology. But once you understand your preferences, you can focus your attention on where it's most valuable. A friend recently sent me this article that articulates a theory that I've had for a while, that there are like three predominant personality types among technologists, the pioneers, the settlers, and the town planners. Pioneers itch for the latest technology. They like floating the rivers, they like contributing, they like exploring new territory, it's all about the thrill of discovery. Settlers try to create order from the chaos that those pioneers discover. They build infrastructure, they build communities, they build the first shops and hospitals, they connect that pioneering work with real business and user needs. And finally, town planners are just trying to get things done at a scale and performance that isn't possible in those uncharted territories at first. And they're trying to take that exciting tech and turn it boring, and they always win. So let's dive back into history and see how this kind of fits together. My theory is that DHH is actually a settler who was sort of pushed into pioneering out of frustration with existing tools. I don't think many people, and certainly not him, would disagree that his ideas were lifted from true pioneering people that were exploring, like Martin Fowler or people that were pushing new ideas out into the world, and he was sort of synthesizing them. I moved to Austin from Utah a few years ago, and they love pioneers in Utah, love, love, love them. They get their own holiday on July 24th. It's bigger than the 4th of July. I think tech is similar. We love our pioneers, we raise them up and we make them heroes, and so they show up early because they like this phase. In the pre-014 beta, which was the 1.0 release candidate, Rails was strikingly similar to the look and feel of the Rails you use today. But if you tried to actually use it, you would die at a death of a billion cuts. Much less, oh, deploy it. Who here has deployed Rails pre-1.0? Okay, and the reason that you don't see more is they literally died. Quick aside, we had Rails, we couldn't figure out how to deploy it anywhere, so this was late 2005, early 2006, and we had a Rails app sitting on a box underneath Rusty's desk, Rusty our venerable lead developer, and next to it was another box that had our billing server on it, and you would know that Rusty had accidentally kicked the billing server because our customers would call and say they just got billed 14 times. So these days were not good. But then the settlers arrive and they're like, that's insane, you cannot do that. People need guides, they need infrastructure, they need books, they need supporting libraries, deploy tools, hosting services. The settlers are all too happy to look at those as opportunities to help and to build and grow businesses. Back in, if you were doing Rails back in, you know, 1.0 to 2.3 era, you might've had nine gems starting with access, and I think we owe a huge debt of gratitude to Ryan Bates for starting Railscast back then. Heroku and Slicehost got their starts around this time. And then, interestingly, around three, Rails was created to fight these architecture astronauts that had set up shop and fragmented Java's web culture, but as the needs grow more complex, architectures had to respond. And the much-revolved computer science folks take over some of the development of much of Rails, bringing modularity, relational algebra, like I don't even know what that is, that sounds awesome. The big money starts moving in at this point and the Rails tent has to get bigger. And suddenly you have things all the way from code schools to enterprise names being covered by this technology. Now, I had no intention of becoming a historian, but the actual history on this stuff is pretty scarce. I'd love to, again, if anybody here has, remember stuff or wants to talk about it, hit me up after, I'd love to buy you lunch and talk about this stuff. All right, so let's see how these three archetypes play out in a successful community. Everybody actually has all three of these personality types in this big, soupy mess internally. And so it's an oversimplification to say you're one or the other. But I think one of them is usually dominant. So let's pick what irritates you. Is it most irritating to be required to use outdated stuff? Is it more irritating when your team members come in and they're like, I wanna build it, I'm not gonna name any names. Some invented framework and language and the back end and the front end and the middle end that they just invented. And or is anything that gets in the way of shipping at all, like, look, just let me do my job. Do you like merging pull requests? Or do you like applying a technology in a way that makes your company real actual money? Or do you like solving the trickiest performance problems? Where do you feel the most helpful? Do you like extracting shareable libraries from your side projects you're doing? Do you prefer improving somebody else's documentation? Or do you like automating some tedious deploy process and make the other developers 10 times more productive? Each of those is really valuable, but if you find yourself siding with the first answer, you might be a pioneer. More on the second answer, you might be a settler and on the third, you might be a town planner. All of those roles are important. Pioneers do the experimentation and they help define a sense of what the future could look like. Settlers connect that with real problems and opportunities and town planners help scale and help that grow to large numbers of people. So settlers and town planners might call pioneers hipsters that are swept around by fad technologies and call them millennials or whatever. And pioneers often get mad at settlers for exploiting their work for notoriety or commercial gain. And town planners get called out for lacking a sense of adventure and being architecture astronauts. When they're just trying to make things stable and scalable and predictable. So as humans, we're wired to be dismissive of those that don't share our default opinions. Her react was good. So we take on each of these roles at different points, but it's to our advantage to lean on what we're best at. Me, personally, I'm totally a settler, absolutely. Like solidly in the settler camp is a default. And which is, you know, doesn't necessarily mean I'm a sociopath. So let's jump though. Like, okay, what am I supposed to do with any of this stuff? Like, great, thanks. You've given me my cosmopolitan quiz. Well, let's map that out in the cycle, in the hype cycle for your personality type. And you simply just can't get wrapped up in trying all of these new technologies that comes out. There's 12,000 of them. 13 million Google results. I'll wait for one of you to, maybe we can divide and conquer and get through all of them today. You just can't, right? So when you feel obligated though to check something out, you just need to be able to answer these couple of questions. What stage is it in? Should I concern myself with it? And based on your type, you can kind of know whether it's okay to avoid something or if it's time to start looking at it. Pioneers are best served though by grabbing new interesting things as soon as they come out and become interesting to them. Settlers can kind of hang back and just watch and planners can completely ignore it. At the peak of inflated expectations where the magazine covers are happening and all that stuff is happening, it's time for the pioneers to shine. This is like, they get to train, they get to consult, they can write blog posts, they can become core team members. There's lots of opportunity for both community contribution and exploiting it for commercial gain, tons. Settlers can exercise skepticism but they do need to keep an open mind and town planners can just keep their head down and keep shipping with the tools they know. Now, once a tool hits the trough and you start seeing prominent defectors and all that stuff and you see the signals of a trough of disillusionment, the pioneers can exit the ride. They have made all of the changes and progress that they can. They can change roles to become a settler and stick it out but they have to recognize that their role has actively changed.  Now is the time for settlers though to step in, learn that technology, make a judgment as to whether it's gonna survive and be valuable and town planners can glance up from their desk or go back to work. Pioneers at this point are totally done. They're out of the picture. The technology is climbing the slope of enlightenment because the enterprising settlers have written books, they're establishing consultancies, they're building products, they're creating a support infrastructure for this thing. The town planners need to start running through some of the new tutorials that are coming out. So even if you're a town planner and you're really productive in what you're doing, this is the time where you need to start exploring one or two of the new things that are coming out. In the plateau, settlers can apply the now low-risk tech to novel business problems. Town planners can help automate and improve performance and create enterprise-scale solutions. The toy solution, this used to be a toy, right? But now it's running Fortune 500 companies and it's running your bank transactions. Okay, so what about leaving? What about getting stuck in a rut? You might be wondering when it's time to get off that plateau. But the good news is, if you're doing little bits of exploration according to what your personality type is, you never leave anything.  You wind up finding yourself working toward a different plateau with a different stack when you have a different kind of problem. There's no big dramatic exit. There's no blog posts while you left X and you never hit hacker news front page. I'm sorry. So in summary, if you wanna turn this cycle to your advantage, you have some pretty simple prescriptions based on your own preferences. If you're early, help people reduce the risk of exploring the new technology. If you're in the middle, find novel ways to connect it with business problems. And if you're late, scale and automate and take advantage of the fact that it's commoditizing. There's one warning in all of this, and this eliminates maybe 11,997 of 12,000 frameworks. There are technologies that bet the farm on maximizing that big peak and hoping that that carries them through the rest of the way.  That could be a plan. You can figure that out. You wanna look for tech that has a vision that carries you all the way to the plateau. Here's some warning signs. Any tech that says it's sitting at the intersection of popular framework X and new language Y, that is a deal breaker. A slight variation is a modular alternative to a popular framework. Just look at it if it trades on the popularity of something else, that is a deal breaker.  These pitches are not speaking to any sort of eventual gain in productivity. They're appealing to the peak of the hype cycle. So with that in mind, let's say you're investigating front end frameworks. There are already people who will help you evaluate for specific criteria. So let's, we'll stay back and analyze it from a more philosophical perspective. So your instincts are actually probably pretty good. Most people in here, no matter how long you've been a developer, you probably know when something is like sort of fishy. So you should be able to aggressively prune that list and filter out peak seeking missiles and you'll be left with a few front runners, which is great. From that point, any of the frameworks that you're probably familiar with can be used to fit any of the needs. That's just straight up true. This is gonna wind up being sort of personal preference. You'll have an easier time if you play to the strengths of the various frameworks. Backbone is solidly at the plateau of productivity. If you've got a bowl of jQuery spaghetti and you can't truly refactor it into a framework, Backbone has you covered. Ember is pulling out of the trough of disillusionment and starting the up the slope of enlightenment. If you wanna build a native web application from scratch against the API, it's got rails like tooling to get quickly up and running. If you wanna add a drop of functionality to server rendered pages and keep the mental model really simple, React is totally your tool. There's also a third party router and it's got a growing community. It can do most of the stuff the other framework can do. React is absolutely at its frothy peak. I went to a front-end conference called Fluent this year and the React talk was like packed standing room only and it's a serious contender though. It can back up the hype and it's actually had a big impact on the other frameworks already. And let's be honest, you're already using Angular. It's entered the trough around the time they announced 2.0 but it's pulling up the slope as well. It's similar in terms of its place on the path as Ember but it's already in your code base. So if you've got it, there's no reason not to use it. In terms of capability, the frameworks all seem to be converging on using components and a router to tie them together. Now in terms of your personal type, Backbone is pretty appealing for town planner types because you just need some organization around the code that you were gonna write anyway. Ember is perfect for settlers that wanna leverage a community of people to build native web applications and not have to write all that code themselves or write boilerplate code or maintaining a stack of build tools. Some people find that very appealing and I will never understand that. React is just exiting the phase where it's targeted at pioneers. It has several ideas that are so wacky that they totally worked. It actually turned out to be really good and everybody hated him at first and it turns out my business partner calls it their haggis technologies which he says they looks terrible, sounds terrible and it's actually very delicious but I won't know because I will never try haggis. Angler is great for settlers and town planners. It's a pretty simple model of supercharging your HTML by giving it dynamic new primitives backed by data and two-way binding and with 2.0 it's showing a lot of similarity to Ember. There's a lot of cooperation happening between the frameworks right now so watch for the ones that are converging because that's really nice. React is wonderful. Angular and Ember are wonderful. This sounds like a tough thing to evaluate for community but really after interacting on Twitter or whatever with some community members or visiting a couple of meetups you should be able to answer a very simple question. What are your nicest, smartest friends using? I think the Ember community in town is absolutely stellar. It's second to none. I invite you to check out the meetup sometime, Ember ATX. They're also look around for Angular or React meetups but for heaven's sake please, please no. Just don't do this. Let's write our own. Or maybe you're the world's itchiest pioneer and you gotta do it and just get it out of your system, it's fine. So great, you pick the tool, it targets the plateau and now you even have a fun toy app built on top of it. So you finish the tutorial, you have this not quite ready for a production app. It's working. You know that feeling, right? I got this. And then you're like, okay, let's put it in production.  You gotta come back down. So this is my friend Jameson. He's a very clever, cool, funny dude and he's pointing out like we buy into that peak of inflated expectations. It is okay, it happens. I just need to take a moment with this. This is like, basically the only thing is to open up Hacker News and pick whatever the most outposts. We've had some trouble with reliability lately which is why it's time to rewrite everything in Checks Hacker News failed Kickstarter projects. Just sub in whatever is on there that day. The reason is it's expectations, right? How many people here by show of hands have written a proof of concept that got put into production? Okay. So I look forward to the day this happens to you if it hasn't yet, because it will, unless you have iron, iron will. It takes like six months or more to actually get it production ready.  What's going on? Maybe that's what they mean by a 10x programmer. It's 100% me. Maybe the problem is your boss thinks the proof of concept is production and the expectations get inflated because at the beginning you demonstrate this incredible velocity with this new tooling and people expect that output forever. Like hurry up, we need the feature. What's the holdup? And all you can think is, wow, this worked so fast. It worked so well earlier. And it's like this personal exploration of tech follows the same curve. You made it to the other side with Rails. You've made it to the other side with one or two other pieces of technologies. Why would you do this again? Why wade to the trough of disillusionment? Well, even if you're a pioneer, you have to see a new technology to your own personal plateau. Clearly you pick the technology for a reason. It's curiosity, intuition, a problem you have to solve, whatever. The pain is higher, it takes longer, so why in the world are you sticking this out? But I want to talk about something that's happening in our industry that may be difficult to notice if you're right in the middle of it. Ponder this for a second. The way our whole industry works has flipped upside down in the last few years. It used to be you take your technology and bring products to market with it and now people are bringing product demands and we're making technologies to make that happen. And we've been swimming in this avalanche and we didn't realize the fundamental shift that has occurred. User experience is driving the technology choices we make now. So we need tools to manage the complexities of this new UX-driven architecture. Sorry, client-driven UX is a thing. Deal with it. Um, Ember is a mature and robust answer to this. Angular is a mature and robust answer to this. React is a mature in robust answer to this. And there are other tools out there and there will be more. So if you've been doing this long enough to remember selling the idea of installing JQuery into your app, does that sound familiar? Now that sounds completely bonkers. But it used to be something you had to fight for. That's where I believe client-side UX is headed. So Ember across this chasm, other technologies have crossed this chasm. Sometimes it really is time to bail out in a technology. Like it's just not going anywhere, it's not solving the problem. Like Dave said, it's like your code will push back. But if we're not careful, that process of bailing and moving to something new and new and new can trigger this eternal mid-career crisis. And if you notice this pattern in your work life, where you're like, I got it, I got it. Oh, wait, I got it, I got it. Oh, hey, I got it. Oh, hang on. Maybe check if you're getting to any kind of plateau or if you're actually getting close to your goals. The tools that have staying power, like Ember and like Angular, tend to push through that thing where they optimize for that first hacker news comment and that first 15 minutes of productivity buzz toward long-term plateau. I want so badly to ship stuff. I just want to ship stuff and make my users happy. And I thought Rails and then Ember would free me from all of the hard parts of doing that. And that's not true or it's not even possible. But I did buy into it because that's a cycle. But that is not the promise. The real promise is about helping you reach that plateau, your own personal plateau. And on the plateau, you have time to focus. You focus on things that had value. Business value. Serious business value. These people have added a lot of business value so they're gonna continue celebrating for some time. Like a lot of business value happened here. On the plateau, you have time to think. And you start thinking, you're like, okay, I'm thinking.  I'm not saying it's true, I'm just saying you have time to think about it. And since you focus on business value, you can afford to fire your boss. And then you do. And you turn out all right. And you get to have your own midlife crisis the way that you wanna have it. But that's another talk. And that's it till the next episode. Thank you.