Hell yeah, what's up guys, this is Chris Pike. My friends call me Big C. Back in action today, I'm back using the heartbeat tool like I do, and I got something totally different for you today. In fact, I'm gonna be showing you some of the highlights from the recent women's basketball game, the college game, between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the LSU Tigers. And in particular, it had Angel Reese on LSU, a superstar going right into the WNBA for sure, and it had Caitlyn Clark from the Iowa Hawkeyes. And in this heartbeat, I wanna show you Caitlyn's amazing nine three point buckets. This is absolutely crazy. She got, I don't even know, she had 41 points, 12 assists, seven rebounds, and nine three pointers. So just absolutely crazy guys. There was 12.3 million viewers that set records all over the place, lived up to the hype. Let's watch Caitlyn do what she does best. All right, here we go. So if you're following along with me, it's at h.ki, link's in the description below. This is the heartbeat tool. I'm gonna click on my heartbeat, and then I'm going to click on moments, and under moments. You're gonna see here that I have exactly nine moments from that game, and that corresponds directly to her nine, that's right, nine three pointers in a big match like this. Absolutely amazing. Let's click on the first one and check it out. Boom. Downtown. Look at that. And that wasn't on the edge. That was outside the circle. Let's go forward to her second one here. Look at that, bro. Wow. That was like two feet back from the edge of the half circle there. Pretty amazing stuff. Let's keep going here to number three. Again. Wow. Absolutely amazing. We're gonna go forward to her fourth. This is at the seven minute and 33 second mark. Absolutely. Final four at stake. Mark is trying to redirect a pass. Clark. Oh my. Like she's not even close to the line. Like she's two or three feet, maybe even more back from the line. Like these are downtown three pointers. These aren't like, these aren't really close. This is pretty amazing stuff. Let's go forward to the fifth one here. Bang. Drops it. Way back. Amazing. Look at this. Look at this. That is absurd. Good for her. I don't even follow basketball, but damn, this girl's good. I never made a three pointer in my whole life. Only took one shot though. Number six. Way downtown. Wow. Look at this, guys.  That has huge arc on it. That is absolutely amazing. Steps back. Fires. Again. Stepping back. Look at this. Look at that. That's just absolutely crazy. And her face drains it anyway. Good for her. So that's her seventh one. Let's click on the eighth one here. Again. Again. Can you believe these shots? These are such unbelievable shots in such a clutch game. And anyways, here's her ninth and final one. It's pretty awesome. That was deep. Let's watch that one again. That one is so good. She wasn't even. That was like five feet from the line, guys. These are absolutely amazing shots. She had 41 points. I think 12 assists. Seven rebounds. There was 12.3 million viewers on this game. I think the only game last year that got more viewers was game five of one of the big series at the end. This was the most watched game almost ever. Absolutely incredible. She was on fire. It was amazing to watch, guys. There you go, guys. Those are the nine ones. Let me know what you think of this in the comments. Be back soon with some more content. Thanks for watching.


I would like to invite now Nicola to give us an overview to summarize a bit of our discussions and put it into a broader context. Okay, thank you. Okay, hello, my name is Nicola Nicola-Jeges, I'm a professor of international human rights law at Tilburg University in the Netherlands. I'm also a commissioner at the National Human Rights Institute at the Netherlands. And I'm one of the researchers involved in the project that Katharina Jannebus explained more about this morning. Well, thank you to the Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for organizing such a thought-provoking day. I think it's been extremely interesting and I was asked to summarize today's discussions and that's impossible. I'm not even going to attempt to do that. Because I think we've had rich discussions and so many things have been raised that I wouldn't do justice trying to just summarize it all. Moreover, I'm very much aware that I'm the only thing standing between you and a well-deserved cup of coffee. So I'm going to try to be as brief as possible. There are just a few things I'd like to highlight. Well, the discussions today show that there is a lot going on, a tremendous lot going on in the field of access to remedy. However, the access to remedy, the third pillar of the protect, respect and remedy framework, has yet to achieve the traction on a larger scale. There has been a lot of commitment expressed by policymakers. The European Union has time and again expressed their commitments to UN guiding principles and especially to access to remedy issues. We have the historic statement by the G7 in June of this year, also expressing support for the UN guiding principles and stating that complaint mechanisms need to be strengthened. So there is a lot of expressed commitment out there. However, it's also very clear that a lot of challenges remain. I think that's a fair conclusion we can draw from today's panels. If you look at the UN guiding principles, you can see that access to a judicial remedy is at the core of the system. The first panel we discussed, we addressed the many challenges that victims that want to bring a case before national courts face and how we can overcome these challenges. In that light, I would like to just briefly refer to a case it was already mentioned a few times that is currently pending in the Netherlands. You probably have heard of it, the case is against Shell for all pollution in Nigeria. It concerns all villages in several Nigerian villages and five Nigerian farmers together with friends of the earth bought a case before the Dutch courts in The Hague against the parent company but also against the Nigerian subsidiary. In January 2013, the courts threw out four of the claims but one claim was upheld and Shell was ordered to pay compensation to one of the farmers, Agpam. This case was appealed by both parties and we are awaiting this appeal decision where a few preliminary legal issues are going to be addressed and this Friday, I was just informed that this Friday the appeal decision will actually be handed down, it's been postponed several times but this coming Friday it's a case to watch because one of the important issues that the Dutch court is going to have to address is the question of jurisdiction. Is this case supposed to be before a Dutch court, especially the case against SPDC, the Nigerian subsidiary? So this is a very important case for many reasons, it's extremely important of course for the victims involved but also for the lawyers, for the litigators because this might open the door to more litigation in Dutch courts but also it might stimulate the increasing number of cases that we see in European courts. As has been pointed out a few times today, the Supreme Court decisions by the US Supreme Court and Daimler and Kiebel haven't completely firmly closed the door but they have restricted and maybe made the US a less preferred venue for victims seeking access to justice and have turned the spotlight more to the possibilities within Europe. And so we see these cases in Europe, the Shell case, kick in Germany, the Unilever, Verdantac cases, I mean there are increasing number of these cases but I think we shouldn't forget that notwithstanding the importance of these cases, the examples are still few and far between and they are a drop in the ocean. It's been pointed out that it leads to questions of fairness and that in this case, in the Shell case for example, it's this one farmer, Akpam, that if the case proceeds, if the decision is favorable to the victims, this coming Friday the case will proceed in the Netherlands but we're only at a very early stage, it will go on for many years. So in general, I think we can conclude that domestic judicial remedies to date are still very patchy, they're unpredictable, they're often ineffective and it's still very fragile so it's a development that is in need of a lot of strengthening and a lot of concrete proposals have been discussed today, how we can reform the law, improve the procedures to make access to courts within the European Union more of a reality. The second panel, we turned to the issue of non-judicial remedies and especially company grievance mechanisms. I think it was made very clear in the discussions following this second panel that company grievance mechanisms do have a lot of potential, especially in an early stage. I think it was called an early warning system and I think that's crucial, I think a lot of these conflicts need to be de-legalized. Courts are an option of last resort, once you end up in a court everything else has been lost so it's a last resort and it's not going to help the large number of victims out there. So where it is possible to de-legalize conflicts and to address them before we actually end up in long protected legal proceedings, this is very useful. So company grievance mechanisms as early warning systems I think are very important but they do suffer from limitations which were pointed out, they're not that suitable for serious very severe human rights violations and not really capable of addressing the most systemic problems. And there's this danger which time and again has occurred in our discussions today, non-legal mechanisms should not crowd out the judicial remedies. So this brings me to, I was asked to point out a few outstanding issues and I just want to point out three areas that clearly need further research and which our project is up to a point also contributing to I hope. Firstly of course we need to discuss the interplay between non-judicial grievance mechanisms and litigation. I thought it was interesting what Jonathan said, the actual threat of litigation will help, will assist in improving grievance mechanisms if I understood you correctly. So I mean this interplay is important and grievance mechanisms are as Karen said still very much a black box so we need more research on what makes a grievance mechanism effective and what does effectiveness actually mean in this context, something that might be great on paper might not be considered effective from the perspective of a victim. Then clearly there's a lot of work, research work that needs to be done on how we can improve the law, how we can ensure that there is better access to the courts and there have been many proposals which were discussed today, the reversal of the burden of proof, the importance of group complaints and so on and so forth. I'm not going to repeat them all today but there's a lot that needs to be further researched. And then this one issue I just wanted to highlight because it hasn't been discussed today and in any other business and human rights meeting I go to it is always discussed so I was quite surprised that it didn't pop up today because when we're looking at judicial remedies and access to domestic courts I do wonder whether we're not asking too much when we expect a domestic court to become sort of a global beacon in an issue which is burdened with such complexities and competing interests. So shouldn't we be looking at an instrument or something that could address the issues at a more systemic level. And I think an interesting question that's still very open is whether the proposed treaty that's being negotiated at the UN level could in any way assist in improving access to remedy for victims. The United Nations last year adopted the resolution and established an open-ended working group which is now in the process of drafting a treaty in the field of business and human rights and it's extremely controversial it's very political and it's very unclear where it's going but maybe it is an instrument if it ever comes into being that might help and improve access to remedy for victims. Something we might want to consider in the time to come. I wrote an editorial for the Netherlands Human Rights Quarterly in September where I expressed I said access to remedy for victims reminds me very much of the traditional Echternacht procession in Luxembourg where participants take two steps forward and one step back. So the process is extremely slow but it is moving forward and now I think we all deserve a cup of coffee thank you.


Hello, everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug. Streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Before I get started, I need to go through the disclosures. General disclosure, all Bookmap Lemon of materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk disclosure, treating futures, equities, and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Here's my contact information. The best way to get in touch with me is through Discord. My name on Discord is Doug P. Also in Bookmap Discord, there's an options dash Doug chat channel. That's a great place to post questions, comments, and content related to the topics of my presentation and the topics of the channel that I'll go through in just a moment. And Notebookmap Discord is a very robust community of traders. There's information, content on a wide variety of topics, asset classes, options, stocks, futures, crypto, also on a wide variety of languages. I'm also on X, following owners Twitter, and my name there is at Doug Pless. Here are the key tenets of my trading. This is the basis of my approach for trading. First of all, I believe options, trades, and market maker hedging activity are key drivers of price and many stocks and futures. And certainly in the stocks and futures that I follow, equity futures and also large cap tech stocks. And for the SB500, SBX is the underlying index. That's the SB500. SPY is the ETF version of that. And ES is a derivative of SPX and SPY. So when traders buy and sell puts and calls and SPX and SPY, market makers take the opposite side of those and those trades and they hedge the missiles, hedge their delta exposure with ES futures. Same for the NASDAQ 100. NDX is the underlying index. QQQ is the ETF version of that index. And NQ is a derivative of NDX. And when traders buy and sell puts and calls and NDX and QQQ, market makers take the opposite side and they hedge their delta exposure with NQ futures. The focus of my presentation today is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging for the one price action. I have a two step process for trading at first is planning and I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day as well as a directional bias. And the second step in my process is execution. I look at real-time order flow and book map and real-time market maker hedging flow and spot gamma hero to confirm my thesis and for setups for entries and exits. And when I talk about setups today, I will be focusing on an underlying asset and setups in that asset can be taken any number of ways. For example, the S&E 500 setups can be taken with ES futures, spy shares, spy options, SPX options, or even ES options. Questions and comments are welcome and I will be watching both the options-doug chat channel and discord as well as the chat and YouTube for your questions and comments. Please feel free to post and I'll do my best to answer your questions. And hello trading price and time. Good afternoon and Doug here, not Bruce. Bruce will be on tomorrow morning at 10 a.m. All right. Here's my agenda for today, Thursday, February 22nd. First of all, I want to go over news items for the day. Then I'm going to go through my positional analysis. Then I'll review some setups from earlier today and then I'll take a look at the live market. And when I get to the live market, if anyone has any stocks they want me to take a look at, please let me know and I'll be glad to do that. And yes, I will be looking at NVIDIA. All right, let's start with news items. So of course NVIDIA reported earnings after the market closed yesterday. I think the earnings announcement came out right around 4 20 p.m. So that is important to note that time. And right now NVIDIA is trading up about 15% on the day. All right, let's take a look at and we'll again we'll take a look at NVIDIA much more closely in a few minutes. And hello and C40G. Welcome glad you're here. All right, so at 9 45 a.m. today there were some PMI data that came out. Services PMI that came in lower than expected, lower than forecast and manufacturing PMI came out greater than expected and greater than the previous number. All right, let's see the results of that. That was at 9 45. This is the ES futures and book map. Very bullish reaction to that data just led to a continuation of the move higher that happened just a few minutes after the cash open. And of course the bulk of the rally has really taken place overnight. Excuse me. All right, so that's the the data and I don't believe there's any economic data tomorrow. No events, no economic data other than fed speakers throughout the week. All right, so let's move on to positional analysis now. And this is like I said the ES futures and book map before I take a closer look at this chart. I want to step back look at a larger time frame. So I'm to go to the underlying index SPX. This is a one day chart and think or swim for SPX. I need to change this line again. I had said it earlier to the high of the day. Now it looks like it's higher. So this is showing the rally that began last year, October 30th. And when I checked earlier today, that rally was good for about 960 points. And it looks like it will be higher at the at some point today. So more than 960 points from low to high. All right, so that's a one day chart. Now let's move on to a one minute chart. One hour chart, excuse me, to get a closer look at what is going on now. I can just change this line right around that high. All right, so around 4108 to 5080. All right, this is the again, SPX one hour chart. This is the January expiration. And this is showing that SPX broke out above that 4800 level. That was the the call wall toward the beginning of the year. SPX broke above that level and now is trading almost 5100. So the call wall during this year has progressed up from 4800. Now at 450 100. I'll talk more about the call wall in just a few minutes. No, this is the February expiration. Unlike January, there was a little bit of consolidation after the February expiration. Both were call dominated, a little bit more expected behavior after the February expiration that lasted for a couple of days. Then of course, Nvidia reported earnings after the close yesterday, much better than expected. And SPX is trading well above previous highs. All right, let's take a look at some levels on this chart. First of all, the dash purple lines are showing the lower and upper weekly expected move. This is based on the options market. I update this once a week. Then the dash blue lines are showing the lower and upper daily expected move also based on the options market. I update those once a day. Note I'll talk about this just a moment. These levels are based on on the options market, the expected move for SPX. I'm calculating this expected move from the closing number yesterday. So SPX closes at 415 p.m. Eastern Time. Know that Nvidia reported earnings. The announcement came out at 420 p.m. So after SPX has already had already closed. So this SPX, this expected move, daily expected move for SPX does not account for the change in price after the after Nvidia reported earnings. Note that spot gamma does provide a different number that is provided to spot gamma subscribers. And today and that's based on the opening print opening number for SPX. So based on that number 62 basis points, the expected daily move high of the day for according to the spot gamma number was about 5070. So SPX is training above that level as well. Let's just take a look while I'm talking about that. Let's take a look real quick. So this is the basic calculation. I get this number from the options chain at Thinkorswim. I'm not sure if they use this calculation or not. But this is the standard calculation. The price of the underlying asset times the implied volatility times the square root of the number of days divided by 365 or 252. I've seen it both ways. They're showing 252 here, but it could be 252 being that 365 calendar days and 252 trading days. So that's the basic equation. And here they're saying that indicates there is a one standard deviation 68 probability that the stock price will stay within that range. So one standard deviation expectation price will stay within that range. So sometimes it trades outside of that range like today. Alright, so those are the expected moves. SPX trading well above the upper daily expected move. It gapped up above that level and also now trading above the upper weekly expected move. Alright, let's take a look at the other levels on this chart. I'm going to zoom in just a little bit. Alright, the other lines on this chart are showing spot gamma levels. And there's one primary level. That's at 5000. That's right here. And that is that's a big combo level. That's the first of all, that's the volatility trigger spot gammas proprietary gamma and volatility flip level below that level. Market makers position on the gamma curve is negative in a negative gamma environment. Market makers have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure. On the other hand, above that level, like SPX is trading now, market makers position on the gamma curve is is positive in a positive gamma environment. Market makers have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure. So the beginning of the day gamma notional for SPX was negative. And now SPX is trading well above the volatility trigger. And most likely the gamma notional that we'll take a look at in just a minute is will shift to positive tomorrow. That's also the poop wall. That's a strike with large net negative gamma that can be expected to act as support. And then finally, that is also the absolute gamma strike. That's a strike with large absolute positive and negative gamma. That's where most of the gamma weighted open interest is concentrated. And then the call wall is up at 5100. That's a strike with large net positive gamma that can be expected to act as resistance. So according to this, that's the potential ceiling for price. And according to this, SPX still has room to run higher up to the 5100 call wall, although SB 500 as trading well above the spy call wall at 500, I would not be surprised at all if that strike moves up tomorrow. And finally, let's take a look at a one minute chart sticking with SPX just to see the levels and play for today. And I'm going to talk more about this lower the day for SPX yesterday and just a minute. So there was a sharp rally toward the end of the day yesterday. And the rally has pretty much continued overnight. And now SPX is grinding higher, again, above the upper daily and weekly expected move. Note this earlier today, this 50 52 combo level was in play. Acting as resistance at the open, then support. And now again, SPX is grinding higher. Or let's take a look at book map now. Let me check for questions. Hello, Steven, welcome, glad you're here. And Farrell asked one standard deviation is the difference between lower and lower and upper expected move. Yes. So according to the information that we looked at, the expectation that is one standard deviation 68% of the time. So, you know, greater than 50% of the time that whatever underlying asset you're looking at is expected to stay within that range. So it's based on price, implied volatility, and the number of days or the time period in the calculation. So that you know, again, that does not mean 100%. Alright, so this is the SB 500 ES futures and book map. I have my own cloud notes here. So I can show SPX levels. There's that 50 52 level that I spoke about earlier, very early on the day, acting as resistance, then support. Now the Lex next spot gamma level and play is the 50 76. That was noted as resistance in the spot game I am founders note, it did briefly act as resistance. I also have spy levels on this chart. And note that spy 503 was a great entry point for a long, just after the cash open this morning. And for spy, all of the gamma levels are down below. So there are no, no spot gamma levels for for spy, just round numbers here, those are shown with the yellow numbers, three digit yellow round numbers.  So there's the 5100 call wall, that's the next target above. Alright, note, there is a difference in price between ES and SPX. And today that offset jumped down pretty considerably. Yesterday I was using 14. Today it's 12. So I'm showing SPX 50 50, for example, at ES 50 62, and that those index relationships that I'm using do change a little bit every day. And I post the preliminary and the final numbers that I'm using in in bookmap discord every morning. I post the preliminary preliminary numbers before the cash open. And then I try to get the final numbers out by 10am Eastern. Alright, so big jump up in the morning. And some consolidation and then the the right around noon, this steady up trend began, we'll talk more about setups in a few minutes, or this move on to NASDAQ. So these the this is the NQ futures and bookmap. And just like the SB 500 ES futures, I have my own cloud notes. So I can show levels for the underlying index products. So let's take a look at those charts first. Here's QQ Q. This is a one minute chart. So I'm just showing today's worth today's data. Steady up trend beginning right around 11am. Again, spot gamma levels down well below, except for the call wall, which is up at 440. So according to that, the NASDAQ has room to run higher up to the potential ceiling at the 440 call wall. And that level has remained at 440 for some time. And I did forget to mention shifts in levels for SPX, not really much of a factor today since these levels were based on information that came out before NVIDIA reported earnings. But for SPX, the volatility trigger input wall both shifted higher up to 5000. And there were no shifts in levels for spy expect pretty significant shifts in levels for tomorrow for spy. And for NDX, which we'll take a look at in just a moment, the volatility trigger input wall moved higher. And for QQ Q, the volatility trigger and absolute gamma strike move lower. And again, I expect pretty significant shifts higher in gamma levels for all these instruments. Alright, so just round numbers and play for the QQQ today. 436 acting as resistance, then support. Alright, let's move on to NDX. Then we'll get back to book map. So in DX, you can see this is the price for today, all the gamma levels shown with these red lines well below. 17,750 is the call wall and the absolute gamma strike. Alright, let's get back to book map. So in Q trading above, it's upper daily expected move upper weekly expected move. So just like yes, I have my own cloud notes. So again, no just yellow levels for QQ Q. All the spot gamma levels are well below. Alright, let's take a look at gamma notional. And then we'll take a quick look at gamma notional, and then the Vana model, and then move on to some setups. Alright, so first of all, this is how market makers were positioned on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day. For the SP 500 NASDAQ and also 2000. Note all these numbers with the exception of NDX are negative. So this indicates at the beginning of the day, market makers position on the gamma curve was negative. And a negative gamma environment. This indicates that traders are long puts market makers are short puts, and they have to trade with price to their delta exposure. Those numbers did all shift more negative from yesterday. And let's take a look at the Vana model to get a better indication of what that means. I'm going to take a look at the SPX Vana model. So what this chart is showing is delta notional. This is market makers delta notional on the vertical axis, spot price for SPX on the horizontal axis. There are two curves on this chart. The first the light gray curve shows how market makers delta notional may change with changes in price. And only price only the purple curve adds implied volatility to the equation. That shows how market makers delta notional may change with changes in price and implied volatility. And that change in applied change in delta with a change in implied volatility is the Vana fact ban is the second order Greek. And that was definitely a factor in the rally yesterday. Alright, so this is the the Vana model for today. Let's check price SPX currently trading right around 5082. So I'm looking at the purple curve now. And this is about where SPX is located. That's 5083, where I'm holding my holding my mouse. So what this is showing is if price continues to increase, market makers delta notional will increase. So price increasing, market makers delta notional increases, according to the purple curve, and they will have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure. That's typical of a positive gamma environment. Let's take a look at yesterday. I can step back a day on this very similar curve. But the price for SPX was completely different. And we'll see in just a minute that at the low of the day, that was after the F1C minutes were released. At the low of the day, SPX traded to the tick to 4946. That was the zero gamma level yesterday. We'll take a look at that again in just a minute. So trader SPX traded down to 4946 and then rallied pretty sharply. We'll look at the cause of that rally. We know that put Vanna was the fuel for the rally. So what this is showing is, from that level, at price increases, imply volatility drops, market makers delta notional will decrease. And they can buy back their short hedges. That's called a put Vanna rally. And it's not a cause, but it can add fuel to a rally in a in a negative gamma environment. So keep that in mind. We'll take a look at let's take a look at that right now. So the first thing that I want to go to, and this is from yesterday. This is a screenshot of the hero signal. We'll talk more about this in just a minute. The hero signal showing options trades and market maker hedging activity. The blue line is for puts a rising line, whether it's orange or blue indicates traders are taking positive delta positions. So rising blue line indicates traders are selling puts and arising orange line indicates traders are buying calls. And this is for a combined signal for the stocks known as the mag seven magnificent seven Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft and video Tesla. So around just around 240 traders started selling puts in the mag seven stocks. Remember, these stocks make up a very large component of the Nasdaq 100, as well as the SP 500. And then about 30 minutes later, they started buying calls. That was around 310. Alright, let's take a look at a chart for SPX. Now, I'm going to leave that up for just a moment. So this is SPX a screenshot from yesterday. So note, let's see. These two levels. This was the zero gamma level yesterday. 4946 note the low of the day 4946. And also the lower daily expected move for SPX. This is from yesterday was this marked the low of the day. And as traders started taking positive delta positions in the mag seven stocks, SPX rocketed higher with again the low point of these two levels. So if you have any doubts about the impact of the options market and these levels that I'm talking about, this should provide some clarity how important these levels are. Then finally, let's take a look at book map from yesterday. So again, this is a screenshot from yesterday. This is the lower daily expected move for ES. So normally these levels do work today in this unusual situation within video earnings. They are not working with again remember lower number daily expected move weekly expected move 68% of the time. And also it's the label for the zero gamma level is obscured. But that is that's at the same level. The ES SPX offset yesterday was 14. So that zero gamma level was showing at 4960. Also the low of the day. Alright, so that's from yesterday. With that, the spark being the again, the shift in hedging flow for the mag seven stocks and the fuel being the put Vanna. Alright, so that's from yesterday. Now let's take a look at today. First of all, I'm going to zoom in. This is ES. I'm going to start with the SME 500. Alright, before I take a closer look at this, let's let's take a look at the hero signal for today, see what options traders are doing. Iceberg ESH for CME by 302. I must have closed out my give me just a moment to get back. Alright, sorry about that. This is the hero signal. So the information that we've looked at so far other than book map is based on static data updated once a day. overnight spot gamma takes open interest data applies their proprietary algorithms to come up the levels. Again, I'm expecting pretty significant shift higher in the key daily levels for the SP 500 and NASDAQ. Alright, so what this chart is showing now we're going to move on to execution to real time data. So this is the hero signal again, hedging impact real time options. This is available to spot gamma subscribers. What this chart is showing is price for SPX. I'm going to start with the SP 500 price for SPX shown with a white line. And the hero signal is showing options trades and market maker hedging activity for a combined signal for the SP SPX spy XSP and ES futures. So showing options trades market maker hedging activity for all those instruments. Again, in the one combined signal, and a rising hero line indicates traders are taking positive delta positions. They're buying calls and or selling puts, market makers take the opposite side, and they have to buy futures to hedge their delta exposure. All right, let's zoom in on this chart. Note it's pretty choppy. And one thing I'm going to do I'm going to separate outputs and calls. And I'm going to there's an auto zoom, an auto zoom era era. So jumping back and forth seems to fix that. So what this chart is showing is calls and puts. The rising orange line indicates traders are buying calls and all those instruments, market makers selling calls, they have to buy ES futures to hedge their delta exposure. The falling blue line indicates traders are taking negative delta positions and call and puts, they're buying puts. So they're buying calls and buying puts pretty typical for an index, call buyers much more aggressive and definitely driving price to higher higher today. So the key today was to watch the orange signal. So one thing I'm not sure what was going on this morning. And we'll see that when we take a look at some other hero signals, the for the first 15 minutes, the data was, there was a problem with the hero data. So about the first 15 minutes, problem with the hero data. And then right just before 950 945 to 950 looks like the data was recovered. And the hero signal moves higher. Alright, until then, I was really relying on watching order flowing book map. So let's go back to book map now. And right after the cash open, there was a little bit of a move down at this 5052 and 5050 level. 5050 was noted as resistance in the spot game am founders note. And that is also spy 504. That didn't last long. So let's take a closer look at order flow here. First of all, the volume dots are showing market buy minus sell green volume dots indicate more buyers than sellers. And note the abundance of aggressive buyers here, green volume dots, the dark blue line here rising dark blue line, that's cumulative volume delta rising. That's bullish. So a good entry point, somebody asked about this and discord this morning, I mentioned this was the really the setup of the day, looking using this spy 503 price often reacts at spy round number levels. And that's where aggressive buyers were coming in. Again, you can just see the large volume dots on the way down, and the way up. Here's the 945 data. PMI data, very bullish reaction. Note the rising yellow line. Those are that showing the buy stop orders, we're helping to fuel that move higher. That's also shown by the on chart indicators, by stop orders, fueling the move higher, almost to the upper weekly expected move. And this is where the hero data came in, right around 945 950, indicating traders were buying calls. There was a little bit of a pull back here to this 50 52 level. Remember before I said it acted as resistance, then support, then pretty long period of consolidation. Remember all this time traders are buying calls, looking for long entries, consolidation there. Another consolidation, this time a little bit easier read because of all the liquidity shown by the heat map, the heat map and book map shows a history, the limit orders in the order book below the price. Those are limit buy orders. It looks like traders were were front running that finally, yes, broke out of this consolidation. There are a couple of tests of 505. This is just spy 505 round number level, good entry points for long. And that second test is where that steady mechanical uptrend began pullbacks to trend line for long entries. Let's go back to hero. So that is the that's the SMB 500 traders buying calls, market makers sell the calls. They have to buy ES futures to hedge their delta exposure. Let's take a look at another signal. The mag seven signal that I showed before, step out and see what this is. So as I said before, this is a combined signal, very valuable hero signal, showing options trades market maker hedging activity for Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, zoom back in. Traders have been buying calls all day. Here's that little glitch with the data this morning, up until about 945. So my guess is that it if this data full data was from the cash open was available, it would show that traders were buying calls from the 930 cash open. So they've been buying calls and all these stocks. So for a stock, when traders buy calls, market makers sell the calls, they have to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure. Alright, so that's a factor that I look at for both the SMB 500 and especially in NASDAQ. Alright, so speaking of NASDAQ, let's take a look. Let's go back to book map. Go to NASDAQ. Very, very steady uptrend all day. Now, if you're waiting on the hero signal, let's go back waiting on the hero signal, looking for pullbacks. This is probably the first pullback. No price here is shown in terms of QQQ. So let's go back to so waiting for a hero signal starts about 945 pullback 955 and price moves higher. Also pullback at around 1050 1055. Let's zoom in on this 955 1005 pullbacks to around NQ 900. Next pullback to that level right around 1050. As traders continue to buy calls and the mag seven stocks. Alright, let's take a look at some stocks. First of all, of course, the star of the day and video. And in video I have 24 hours of data here. That's what I loaded this morning. So this is in video yesterday. And note that I gave up on showing the levels between the zeros and the fives just too much. So lower the day yesterday after and video report and earnings was right around 645. So this is the cash session yesterday, lower the day after reporting earnings round 645 and currently Nvidia trading, some are between 775 and 780. So let's go take a look at trading today. So at the cash open the opening front right around 750. Currently Nvidia trading several between 775 and 780. Let's see what options traders are doing. Let's go back to hero. Go to Nvidia. So we're looking at the mag seven signal now. Take a look at Nvidia, usually pretty close. So again, a little bit of glitch with the hero signal in the morning. But data comes in 945. Flow alert indicating significant options activity. Traders aggressively buying calls. And note, this is very typical pattern. They take the foot again foot off the gas sometime late morning. Note the change in the hero signal and price consolidates levels off as call buyers. Again, take the foot off the gas they stop buying calls. Now it looks like around 121 30 they started buying calls again. Let's go take a look at Nvidia. So now maybe trying to move up again. Note the liquidity here in the heat map showing the liquidity in the order book. Resting limit orders at 770. Those are limit buy orders. Alright, let's take a look at AMD. Moving higher in sympathy in sympathy with Nvidia. 180 is the call wall. Let's go take a look at heroes. See what options traders are doing. Go to AMD traders buying calls shown by the rising orange line. When traders buy calls market maker sell the calls they have to buy stock page their delta exposure. There's the 180 call wall. No, there was some consolidation around that level. We'll see that in book map in just a moment. Price continued higher. As traders resume buying calls, then pretty similar pattern to Nvidia. Very typical pattern. Sometime mid to late morning. Call buyers take the foot off the gas and price consolidates. Let me mention for this call wall breach. What happens that call wall that's where the that's where most of the calls are concentrated. And for a stock spot gamma assumes that traders are long calls. Market makers are short calls just the opposite of index. And those calls at 180 as price moves above that level, they give further in the money, their delta increases and market makers have to continue to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure as those short calls are increasing in delta. Let's go back to book map. Here's that consolidation at the 180 call wall level, a little bit of resistance, and then support and now price consolidating made it up to around 183 now consolidating. And finally, I want to take a look at meta. And it seems like meta moves up on just about any excuse. Alright, let's go take a look at hero go to meta, get a little glitch in the morning. So there's hero turns on flow alert indicating significant options activity. In the case of meta, options traders have really not taken their foot off the gas. They continue to buy calls that looks like the slope of the line is has is not as steep as earlier today, but traders continue to buy calls and meta and meta stock continues to move higher. As traders buy calls, market makers sell the calls, they buy stock to hedge their delta exposure. Alright, does anyone have any stocks they want me to take a look at? Let me know what I'll be glad to do that. Alright, slow to Rossi wants to look at SMCI. And I'm sure it's moving higher in sympathy with Nvidia. So for SMCI traders of buying calls and selling puts SMCI well above the 800 call wall. Remember, market makers are short calls at that level. As price moves up, they go deeper in the money, delta increases, and they have to continue to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure. They're also selling puts shown by the positive notion of a the rising rising blue line, call buyers more aggressive really driving price today. Not quite as clear as as Nvidia and meta. So SMCI up over well over 100 points today. Let's go back to the SMB 500. Randy wants to take a look at Intel. Yeah, we can do that. I don't know how active options traders are and Intel. Not very. So there you go. Randy not much going on and Intel traders are buying calls buying puts note the notional value here. Pretty small nine 9.14 million calls. And that's really just after this large order here shown right around 205. Let's compare that with Nvidia. 1.72 billion. So a huge difference in delta notional value between Nvidia and Intel. Let's go back to the SB 500. Traders continue to buy calls. Back to book map. Grind higher continues. And the 5100 call wall on deck. And tomorrow should be interesting to see how these levels shift. Again, I'm expecting pretty significant shifts in the gamma levels. Let's just take a look at let's take a look at spy absolute gamma. Right now spy is trading right around 508. Let's go to spy. Absolute gamma zoom in on this. Here's 508. So all of the this chart is showing absolute gamma. Orange bars showing positive gamma recall gamma blue bars showing negative gamma or put gamma. This is market makers gamma position absolute gamma. So I'm expecting a pretty significant shift higher. As these gamma levels move up. Certainly I expect the spy call wall to move higher. But again, according to this according to the SPX call wall up at 5100. SPX has a little bit of room to run higher up to that level that is expected to act as resistance. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. NASDAQ continues to grind higher. And here's the QQQ 440 call wall. Again, it's been at that level for some time. So just QQQ point away from that level about 40 NQ points. 41 NQ points. Note for NQ cumulative volume Delta has been rising all day. That's shown by the dark blue line. Also by stop orders. Feeling the move higher that shown by the yellow line. Arch traders are fading this with iceberg orders. That's shown by the falling light blue line. Also the negative number there. Large traders use iceberg orders to hide their size. Let's check on. Yes, similar situation. CVD not as quite as clear. The large traders are starting right around 11 am have been selling this move with iceberg orders. Shown by the falling light blue line. 5100 call wall on deck. Alright, last call for stocks. Alright, WRB ask would you post the expected moves formula chart? Today shows the power of spot gamma hero book map when in concert. These tech textbook moves really drives the metrics across the board. Almost impossible to make a miss inform move. Thank you. You're very welcome. WRB. Thank you for your. Thank you for your summary here. I will definitely post the expected moves formula. And I just know what I get my expected move from the options chain of thinkorswim instead of doing a hand calculation. Let me just show that real quick. So this is SPX up over 109 points today. Yes, 110 points for SPX. So this is how I get the expected move. And I'll just talk about the daily expected move. So today's February 22nd. This is tomorrow, February 23rd. And I look at this number right here at the close today. So SPX closes at 415 p.m. Eastern time. I take that number and add it and subtract it to the closing price of SPX to get the expected move for tomorrow. Now again, what I mentioned what spot gamma is doing there. They have a different calculation their own proprietary calculation that they're using gamma levels. And that is based on the opening price. SPX is trading above the upper daily expected move based on my approach as well as the spot gamma approach today. Right. So I'll when I have these numbers, WRB, I will post them in discord. And I'll post the formula as well. Right.  I want to thank you very much for watching. Thank you for your questions or comments. And I will see you tomorrow. Thanks again. Bye.


Hi everyone, Joe for Jaspy's casebreaks.com coming at you with 2021 Panini Chronicles football. Fat pack break or value pack break, whatever you want to call it. Salo pack is number 25, random team break number 25. This is not the last filler actually, the next one break 26 that I just crossed out right there is the last one, the second to last one. Big thanks to this group for making it happen. There are the teams right there. Let's roll it, let's randomize names and teams two and a three, five times. One, two, three, four, and five. And as always, we'll use a different dice roll for the giveaway part. Second dice roll. Two and a three are first dice roll, five times for the teams. One, two, three, four, and five. All right, so there's the first half of the list right there and the second half of the list right over here. No trade windows, let's just go ahead, print and rip. Final print out, hot off the presses. Thanks everyone for joining in. Nothing too crazy here. So we'll send that Brady along Joel. Nothing too crazy here, but the crazy part is who's going to win those, what are we giving away in this break, Impeccable? Yeah, we're giving away nine Impeccable random team spots, nice. All right, so let's gather everybody's names. Second dice roll is going to be Snake Eyes, two times, top nine after two, one, and two. So from 10 on down, Brian Hayes, sad times, 10 through 32. Very close, Brian, but not this time, we'll get them next time. Top nine, happy times for you. Eugene is happy, so is Nico, Joel, Joel, Ryan, Chris, Steve, Steve, and Ryan. Congrats to the top nine, we'll see you in that break. Hopefully later tonight, Jaspy's case, breaks.com.