Hey guys, it's Nate, AKA the Foot Accountant. Welcome back to the channel. We need to talk about a few things that happened today on FIFA Ultimate Team. I'm not clearly on my account, as you notice. I'm on one of my friends' accounts because we're gonna actually open up a couple packs at the end of this video, test out some of the 81 plus upgrades from the Premier League and the League One. I know a lot of you guys have questions about those and wanna know if they're good, if they're worth it. So we'll do a couple of those and maybe talk about some ways you can possibly use those to craft SBCs, like the team of the week upgrade, tradable team of the week upgrade, or the base icon upgrade as well. But these two SBCs today, and honestly the upgrades as well, really did a number on the market today. I wanna talk through some of those things and especially start to talk about some of the implications that the Super Sunday Day to Day on Sunday could have on the market. Because yes, we just had Black Friday and they usually run a Cyber Monday promo, but this year they're doing it on Sunday, which they're calling it Super Sunday. So I wanna talk through a few of those things as well. We're gonna go over to Footbin right away and take a look at this. Take a look at some of the indexes as we do on most videos. And a lot of you guys probably noticed this today, this SBC coming out really killed a lot of the informed prices from this current week's team of the week and especially some of those cards that were in best of team of the week as well. Specifically you can see this dip here. When the SBC came out at 6 p.m. UK, massive dip that followed a little bit of a rebound, but this might have been some of the buyback on some of those really meta cards as there was a lot of panic selling before of the best of team of the weeks because they rebounded a tiny bit, but not much. And then possibly a little bit of a rise as people did a tradable SBC for the team of the week and maybe some of those 82, 83, 84 informs rose a bit as well. But this is an example of a card that got absolutely nailed today in price because of the SBC. That first hour again, there was a ton of panic selling. As you can see, Ben Yetter went from about 230,000 coins which was already very low. He came into the day Friday at 300K, went into packs down to like 240, 250, dropped overnight and then all of a sudden this SBC comes out as a tradable version and boom, he's down to 180, 185. He's currently at 193. So those cards got hit a lot today and then Kimmich is an example from this week's team of the week. That got nailed in price today as well. 78K, boom, down to 48K. So still chilling around 52 but a lot of cards took a hit from this SBC that was put out today in the store. Now, one thing I do want to mention is in terms of the market and the implications that this has there are no other team of the week cards in these two upgrade packs. It's just the current team of the week. So team of the week 11 and the best of team of the week. I think that's awesome because that does not mean that the some of the team of the weeks that are older like team of the weeks one through 10 aren't getting supplied through this SBC which I'm a huge fan of because that makes the ability with those cards trade with still very good.  Whoa, that's a deal right there at 119. I wish I could buy it. We don't have the coins at the moment but Someto at 119 right now is cheapest is 135. So that's a pretty nice undercut right there but if these cards are back in packs yes, there'd be more supply for them so that would drop their price a little bit but there would be some fresh items as well but I'm kind of glad that it was just restricted to this week's team of the week and you're going to see people continue to do these SBCs the upgrade SBCs this week. I mean, people are going to be selling their week in league teams tonight into tomorrow for the Super Sunday and over the course of the day tomorrow they're going to have their coins ready they're probably going to go out and try a couple of these SBCs and you've got Cristiano Ronaldo you got Mbappe, you got Messi in the best of team of the week that is packable from these SBCs you're definitely going to have some people that want to go do them and that makes me want to look at the 83 rated cards on the market basically the requirements for that SBC have gone up a lot since yesterday when the code was released last night about 24 hours ago from me recording this a lot of the 83s were around 1000 to like 1500 coins they jumped up to 2k they were chilling at 2k before the SBC came out and now you can see that some of them are like 2.5, 2.6k some of them are up at 3k the ones that have really good links if you bought 83s and you still have them good on you because I think you should keep holding these cards, they should continue to rise up even though we're going to have a lot of packs on Sunday today this SBC is out for another four days the team week upgrade so it's going to be out for another couple of days after all the packs on Sunday so Monday, Tuesday of this week even tomorrow and Sunday I think you might see the 83s start to go up in price 82s as well actually myself on my account I bought some 82s, some Juan Matas very linkable 82 rated cards going to get put into a lot of SBCs this market went shooting up today so a lot of those have gone up as well some of them are around like 2000 coins El Shirawi 2.4k some of them are only up to like just over 1000 but some of them are up to around 2k so let those rise let the 84s rise if you have the SBC fodder stuff like the 82 to 84s let it rise a little bit more into this next week because I do think those prices are going to to keep trending up now tomorrow, Super Sunday is going to be another time on the market where we're going to have some more packs we're going to have more Flash SBCs it's basically going to be kind of like a rerun of Black Friday but maybe a little bit less intense and a little bit less hype I don't think there's going to be as many Flash SBCs and there probably won't be as many lighting rounds but there will be lighting rounds again in the store I think right now we don't have any lighting rounds we're just having promo packs that have been sitting in the store for a while they refresh them every once in a while but on Sunday today we will have lightning rounds I would assume we have the 50k, the 100k and the 125k packs at 6, 7 and 8pm UK per normal that's the normal time when they run those lightning rounds so watch out for that and then Flash SBCs as well for packs so that means another day of supply so I want to talk a few things what you can look at today on the market on Sunday just to kind of get ready for this next week of FIFA because after Sunday after Sunday night there's a lot of stuff that's going to start rising a lot of stuff that's going to start going up on this market because people are going to be using those coins to go do SBCs especially that's the team of the week SBC especially the base icon upgrade and SBCs like that we're probably going to get more player SBCs either tomorrow or in this next week as well because EA knows they just put a bunch of coins on this market with all the packs that were opened up people have a lot more coins now from selling cards and from of course just opening packs so I do think you're going to see more player SBCs probably some flashbacks we're not technically in player the month time frame yet it will be the beginning of December but usually those SBCs aren't for a couple days but probably some more flashbacks maybe another player moments card I would actually be very surprised if we didn't get another player moments card on Sunday I think we should get one of those so stuff that you guys can look at to do on Sunday today to kind of just get ready for this next week what's going on here there we go thank you it showed the page Fernandinho 87 rated the cheapest players by rating I think it's going to be a great time to do a club stock on Sunday you're probably going to see the continuation of the sell off of week and league teams and that's something that you're going to possibly into for some investments and just watching the market go low on that day but I think it's going to be a great time to do a club stock 86s 87s 88s even some 89s and then watch the prices of the 82s through 84s just because they're a little bit inflated they might go up a little bit more on Sunday they're going to get here with some supply though but especially the 85s and up I think that's going to be a great shout for a club stock today on Sunday as people kind of sell out their teams and we see the end of the week and league for a lot of people so that's going to be a good shout to do and then watch the informs and the out of pack special cards like I mentioned that's Samedo card that we were just looking at that actually had a good deal that we couldn't buy unfortunately that's the type of card that I would be watching this weekend if there's any panic selling if you see that card price dip down a decent amount at all that's going to be the type of cards that you're going to want to pick up again this week because people are going to have those coins if they sold their cards off tomorrow or today rather for Sunday and the Super Sunday promo then you're probably going to see some sort of buyback after they're done doing SBCs they're going to buy their team back for this next week's week and league you're probably going to see the market rise very nicely in these next few days after Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and then probably a nice healthy jump on Thursday with week and league rewards again people going out and buying teams after this promo they're going to have a lot of coins so I'm a huge fan of cards rising up this next week so you're probably going to want to get in on a few buys with the out of pack specials and stuff like that early this week earlier rather than later I'll talk some more about that in my video tomorrow you know the market outlook video for this next week which goes live on Monday mornings we'll talk a little bit more about that then one other thing I want to mention is I don't think we're done with these upgrade SBCs as well I mean obviously today very weird time frame EA dropped these 81 plus SBCs at like 430 PM UK it was like 1130 AM my time really random wasn't expecting it at all I guess they were already in the pack code which is interesting but they also have not yet dropped the 81 to 87 upgrade or the 82 plus guaranteed upgrade so I'm kind of waiting on those and I think those are going to come out during this promo EA wouldn't just add those SBCs into the code if they weren't going to put them out so I do think we're going to see those cards this week and I do think you're going to see that could be a possible scenario where people start doing those SBCs depending on how they give out and depending on the requirements for that 81 to 87 and for the 82 plus you might see a lot of people grinding those and it might be an opportunity to go and grind this base icon upgrade which people are always a fan of if you can grind the SBCs what is it called crafting yeah people like to craft these SBCs and if that's going to be an option with the 81 to 87 depending on how good the pack luck is from that you might see a lot of people doing that this week which would be very fun and it would be something that we could do for a few days on FIFA post Black Friday that would make the menu game on FIFA pretty fun obviously people are doing these SBCs right now and I'm going to open a couple of these packs as we talk about it we have the Premier League 81 plus players packs right here that I want to take open and take a look at and also we have a couple of the League one packs as well so I want to take a quick open on these and hopefully these guys these packs have been pretty good for you guys I'm going to start with the League one players packs first I just kind of want to test these out for you guys as well thanks to my man CJ for having these on his account first one it's going to be a board it's going to be an inform and it's going to be a walk out what are we looking at we just got Caleb Navas let's freaking go first upgrade pack is Inform is this 89 rated? 89 rated Caleb Navas let's freaking go and he's dabbing unbelievable oh he stopped the dab he now he's shushing what a celebration 89 rated Caleb Navas from the first pack from the first freaking pack let's go who else is going to be in this one what a pull it's worth it already it is worth it already I've heard that these packs are pretty good because there's just not that many 81 plus players that are in the League one so that's huge that's a nice 89 rated card sending to the club G freaking G we're gonna hit another we're gonna hit another league one pack here we go if you guys are getting packs like this let me know down in the comments because I did not know these were this good the second one is boards as well not a walk out it's going to be Portuguese goalkeeper it is going to be Gomez is that his name Lopez not Gomez 85 rated boom that's another solid pull from an 81 plus upgrade an 85 rated goalkeeper SBC fodder but you'll take it to SBC fodder cards 85 rated Lopez and 84 rated Rufier I really don't know where I got Gomez I don't know where I thought about that but that's a really solid start to these first two packs let's freaking go pack number three for the league on it is not a walkout or a board rather so alright that's nice we got 89 rated Caleb Navas that's a GG let's see what we can get in these Premier League packs we have five of these two 81 plus rated players from the Prem if we could hit like an informed son that would be sick basically just some boards high rated stuff that'd be nice this guy that I'm opening packs for he's got a sick team so he doesn't need the pack polls his pack look has been immense and insane all year nice little green link right there in that pack for SBCs but also you like to help people out and you like to pack in good stuff so let's see what happens right here this is not a board regardless of what happens in these next few packs this pack opening has been worth it already thank you to Mr. Caleb Navas 89 rated we get Jesse Lingard in that pack so it looks like for the Premier League pack so far we're getting a lot of 81s and 82s which is not the most ideal another non-board right there so we are we're slowing down a little bit but the league one packs for fire man so if this shows you anything from what we've opened today of course look at this duplicates at least that one's tradable I can chuck it up on the transfer list but it looks like to me that the league one packs are going to be the best but I don't think that you can do a ton of those because you're going to start getting duplicates like we are with the Premier League but you're going to get a lot of duplicates with that SBC a walk out from the Premier League pack as well Salah no freaking way dude yo are these packs rigged 90 rated Mohammed Salah unbelievable let's go let's freaking go dude unbelievable 89 rated goalkeeper inform Kailor Navas and now 90 rated Salah okay we did eight packs man and this is what we're getting if this guy's account is just rigged and you guys are getting no good luck like this let me know but if this is how these packs are normally this is ridiculous 90 rated Salah wow is there anything else behind Salah in the pack as well what else do we have here Jaka LOL but 90 rated Salah this is like a 200 coin 200,000 coin untradable pull let's go hopefully a super sub for his team you'll take it you will take it and we still have one pack left we still have one pack left huge pack pulls man unbelievable pack pulls from these SBCs maybe I just got lucky again let me know down in the comments if I just got insanely lucky or if that's how these SBCs are it's making me want to go try a few of these on my own account that is for sure but hopefully you guys enjoyed the video today kind of like a mix up between like a market talk we talked about the SBC Super Sunday stuff team of the week SBC stuff and also starting to talk about those kind of the stuff we're going to see today with Super Sunday and then after in the next week but then also opening a few packs as well which was very fun so again if you enjoyed it smash the thumbs up comment down below if you have any questions and subscribe to the channel if you are new it's been Nate the photo accountant catch you guys later peace out


What's going on? If you're a fan, welcome back to another video. If you guys are new to the channel, make sure you guys hit that subscribe button, turn on your post notification bell. Leave a positive comment down below for a chance to get a post notification shout out at the end of today's video. Today's video is going to be really, really nasty.  Not really though. So what I plan on doing is I have this dookie mold right here. I don't know if you guys can tell because it's clear, but it is basically a chocolate mold of dookie.  I'm going to put it in the mold, put it in the fridge for a little bit so it can harden up. It doesn't need to be a hundred percent solid. Even if it's a little bit mushy, it'll be better because you know what? We're not going to get into the details as to why it'd be better if it's mushy. But I'm also going to be using Blooper to help me out with this prank. So once the mold is completely ready, I'm going to put it on the floor and I'm going to stage it as if Blooper took a dookie on the floor and I'm going to like have to...   I'm going to pick it up. I'll probably play with it a little bit to gross her out and whatnot. And then I'm just going to rub it on her face when she least expects it. Guys, this is going to be crazy. I don't know what Janice's reaction is going to be. Like obviously you're going to get grossed out if someone rubs like dookie on your face, especially like if it's from a dog. What does it even matter who it's from? You're going to get grossed out. But yeah, I don't know how she's going to retaliate. Like is she going to get angry and like do the same thing back to me?  I'm not 100% sure, but let me know guys down below in the comment section. What do you think her reaction is going to be? And if you guys are ready for today's video, make sure you guys smash that thumbs up button, comment down below team Isaiah all day every day. And with all that being said, let's get into today's video. I just realized I completely forgot to tell you what Janice is doing right now. She's currently sleeping. So this gives me enough time to get everything ready and set everything up before she actually comes downstairs for the first time today. But yeah, let's get into it. All right, guys. Now this is what it looks like after me playing around with it. This is what melting a chocolate bar for one minute looks like. I'm not going to lie. It looks really good. I kind of want to eat it. All right. So I know you guys are probably looking at it like that did not do anything. However, blooper is a very small dog. But I am going to melt one more chocolate bar just to fill it up a bit more.  But yeah, I'm going to go melt another chocolate bar. We're going to add a little bit more. Then we'll throw it in the fridge. Give me one second. So we got the dookie mold in the fridge. We are ready to go. I'm going to let that harden up for just a little bit. Like I said, it doesn't need to be a hundred percent solid.  But um, yeah, Janice is probably not going to be down here for probably another maybe two hours. By the time she gets up, brushes the teeth, showers, gets ready, so on and so forth. So I have enough time to set everything up. I'm not worried about that. So if you guys are ready to see her reaction and you guys are ready for Team Isaiah to get yet another dub, make sure you guys comment down below Team Isaiah all day every day and let's get into it. So if I'm talking a little weird, it's because your boy popped in his aligners and yeah, it gives me a list. But we not about to talk about that. So fast forward about two hours later. She is almost done getting ready. She just hopped out the shower. So that means she's going to do her makeup real quick, get dressed and then she should be coming down here. So I would say I have about another half hour or so. So what I'm going to do now is I'm just going to take the chocolate out of the fridge, leave it on the floor, make it look like blooper pooped on the floor.  I did take a peek. I looked at it. It's really not that solid, but I'm going to leave it on the floor. Hopefully it'll soften up a lot more and then we just going to get into today's video. This is about to be crazy, but I'm going to show you guys the chocolate right now. So this is what it looks like. I don't know if you guys can tell it is not 100% solid, but again, that's a plus for obvious reasons. And this is what the other side looks like. It has like that texture to it. I'm not going to lie. It looks a little kind of like runny like diarrhea and blooper does have a habit whenever he has an upset stomach or has like diarrhea or something like that. He will use the bathroom in the house and I don't blame him because if you got to go, bro, you got to go. I know you can't hold it.  But yeah, I'm going to go do that. And like I said, we're going to get right into the prank. So if you guys are ready for today's video, make sure you guys smash the thumbs up button, comment down below Team Isaiah all the everything. Let's get it. All right guys. So I went ahead and plopped it on the floor. It looks so realistic and so disgusting. I don't know if you guys can tell, but I did touch it a couple of places. It is a little mushy so by the time she comes down in about like 20 minutes or so, it should feel like really mushy at that point and like feeling pretty realistic. Not that I expect her to play with it. That's going to be my job. Made it look like blooper took a poop. So what I'm going to do now is I'm just going to set the camera up and we're going to wait for her to come down and this is going to be crazy. Guys, this looks so nasty. Ew. Can we get down this so much? Yeah, continue. Blue, come on, bro. Why you get pooped on the house? Nenya, why? His stomach might have been hurting. Go, go over there. It's okay. Stay. Yeah, it's bigger than mine. And now daddy has to clean it up. Man, man, that's nasty. I don't know how you can be cleaning that up. You're taking roman dumps. I know. It's different. Like look at him. Look at his face. I'm not going to date him because even though he might have something to do with it.  I don't know why you're going to have to do that. Go. Nenya, that's disgusting. Go.  I'm not. It's not even that. It's just a rule. Let me know when you got to go outside.  Where's the Clorox ones? I don't think we have any more. How do we have any more? We right now though, I think the only ones that we have is like upstairs. Blue. You're not slick. You're trying to eat it. Nenya, that's cool. He did that last week and he's going to stop doing that. Yeah. Then your breath is going to stink.  Right?  Look at him hiding. You know what you did? Ew, it's all mushy. Ew, babe. That is so nasty. It's like shape shifting. Look at it. Ew. Ew, Nen. They look like you're eating peanuts. Why are you doing that? Bro, ew. Why are you doing that? Did you lose your mind? Nenya had diarrhea. Babe, wash your hands. I'm doing stuff like that. How am I going to get sick of that? Just use Lysol and clean it up or what? Why would you do something like that? I was always curious as to like, how it felt like if you squish it.  Babe, seriously? It's going to be funny. I'm being dead serious. Babe, that's disgusting. Stop. You want to squeeze it? No, I don't want to squeeze it. Why not? Because that's nasty. Who does that?  Nenya, I can see your tree. Ew.  You're being extra. I have it on a piece of paper.  Oh, why are you... You like, when you smell... Did you wake up and lose your marbles? Okay. And when you smell a good candle, do you not lick it? So what? I'm doing this with you right now.  Like, I can't even... It looks like crunchy. I'm not even going to talk to you right now. I cannot believe it. All right, all right, all right. All right, stop being extra. I'm not being extra. That's freaking gross. What's wrong with you? All right, I'm going to flush it down on the toilet. So, I'm going to flush it down on the toilet. Hey, Nenya, relax, bro. I don't even know if I want to talk to you at this point. Dang. Because who sits there and...  You're being extra. I'm not being extra. Like, there's something really wrong with you. Like, who does stuff like that?  Literally. I'm not going to talk to you. Maybe. All right, chill out. I'm not going to talk to you. No, stop! Can you say team Isaiah? Say team Isaiah, bro. I got you. I'm not going to talk to you. Oh, I thought you were about to come.  Over your face. I think you're funny. You literally got it all over my earring and my hair. Oh, it's a sad day, isn't it? Oh, team Isaiah? Just wait. Wait until I get you back. All right, guys. So, that is it for today's video. You're back again with another banger. Oh my God. Team Isaiah, we're back, baby. We're coming stronger than ever. I might just throw some stuff in Vlogmas. Ooh, did I just say we're doing Vlogmas? All right, guys. So, with all that being said, it is not time for today's post notification shout-out. Today's post notification shout-out goes out to Samantha Ash. Shout-out to you, girl. Thank you so much for the love and support. If you guys want a post notification shout-out, all you guys got to do is like, comment, share, subscribe.  And with all that being said, we will see you guys in another banger.


Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States and Mrs. Reagan. Good states. Thank you. Please be seated. Well Bill, thank you very much. And Reverend Moomaw, thank you. And to the kids in the bands, I'd just like to say if you keep up the way you're going, America's going to be sounding very sweet indeed for years to come. And thank you, Chuck. I hope everyone here is suitably honored by your presence. After all, it's not often that you get Moses to lead you in the Pledge of Allegiance. I should know when I knew him he didn't even speak English. But this is truly a wonderful occasion, the culmination of years of hard work and remarkable generosity, and all of which was due to the good grace of the estimable board of trustees of this foundation. To the trustees and also to my dear friend Holmes Tuttle, I thank you for that and for a hundred other things the brief time I have here could not do justice to. This is, of course, a most humbling moment for me. As my time in Washington draws to its close, I've had occasion to reflect on the astonishing journey that I've been privileged to make from the banks of the Rock River into this glorious sight overlooking the mighty Pacific. The journey has not just been my own. It seems I've been guided by a force much larger than myself, a force made up of ideas and beliefs about what this country is and what it could be. The story that will be told inside the walls that are yet to be built here is the story not only of a presidency but of a movement, a determined movement dedicated to the greatness of America and faith in its bedrock traditions, in the essential goodness of its people, in the essential soundness of its institutions, and, yes, faith in our very essence as a nation. What we know best is this. We owe all we have to our forebearers who built our land and our government and gave it to us as a sacred bequest. And today in this stunning setting, we begin to pay our debt to them and to our own posterity by breaking ground for this library that will bear my name and house the collected ruminations and reflections of the presidency that has borne my name as well. I must say that it's not my presidency any more than the White House has belonged to me these eight years. The presidency of the United States is a trust, a public trust from the great people of this land. Who every four years vests that trust in someone who must be humble enough to do their will and firm enough to make sure their will is not thwarted by the twin demons of expediency and fear. In the same way, I have vested my trust in thousands and thousands of women and men whose ideas of matters ranging from the seating arrangements at informal dinners outside the White House to a strategic defense against nuclear blackmail will form the archives of this administration, this institution I should say. For eight years, the men and women who have served in the administration have been serving America and doing so with care and pride and understanding. Their work has made the accomplishments of the last eight years possible. They've done the job and I thank them with all my heart. And what this library will house is the record of the ideas and policies that undergirded our accomplishments. These have indeed been years of intellectual ferment. They have featured discussions on the most important matters facing our nation. What kind of government should we have? How much government is too much government? How best to expand the frontiers of freedom around the world? How best to pay our national bills? How best to help those who seem to have lost hope? And how to spread our bounties across the globe? How to achieve our national destiny? Yes, there'll be much to study here, much to discuss, and much to mull over. This library will allow scholars of the future to cast their own judgment on these years. And I would not presume to predict the result of their researches. But I have to believe that scholars of good will, upon examining the historical record that will be contained herein, will judge our efforts well. But as for us, at present we can only say this. We have done our best and we pray it has been enough. I would add just one thing that recently came to me in a letter. A man wrote and found it necessary to say this, and I'm pleased that he did. He said, you can go to live in another land. You can go to live in France, but you can't become a Frenchman. You can go to live in Germany, but you can't become a German. You can go to live in Japan or Turkey, and you cannot become Japanese or Turkish. But anyone from any corner of the world can come to live in the United States and become an American. So thank you all so much for helping in this effort, and may God bless you all. Thank you. And now, Mr. President, I would like to invite you and Mrs. Reagan to join the Board of Trustees in breaking ground for this great library.


lecture three, and let me close this up, in a particular place randomly chosen, you keep going with that, and you replace it with either an non-existing color slash species slash individual with a certain probability of a diversification ratio, whatever you're going to call it, or you replace it with some nearest neighbor or some neighbor which was chosen with respect to a kernel of the domain of influence for which you choose the most numerals, or in a mean field sense whether you choose it from anywhere else based simply on abundance. And that of course entails neutrality in the sense that the preference is simply due to sheer numbers, sheer abundance, and that's the essence of a neutrality assumption. And the patterns that we've seen in there are quite different depending on a sole modification, which is in this case the directional disperser which is embedded in the network structure, the three light structure if you please, or the open to any, I'm sorry nearest direction, sorry I started back, so let's see how we can exploit this is Ignacio Rodriguez-Turbe, emeritus professor at Princeton currently now at Texas A&M, after like a couple of decades in Princeton, in which he said well why don't we assume that each branch of a network structure here becomes like a metapapulation, which is called a directly tributary area, but is a local community within a meta community. One of the points that I made in the first class was that the result that the directional dispersal which is embedded in a network structure for interaction that is that defines your nearest neighbors or a way neighbors in a selective manner is rather insensitive of whether you're talking about an individual-based or a meta-community-based approach, the result still stands and what later on we have done, like field verification of the same result, studies theoretical or empirical on migration fronts for instance that feel the structure of a directional dispersal or laboratory in fact experiments we learned in my lab in which was nothing neutral, there was a living community, the result still stands. So the idea is here is to assume that the large river system, this elementary unit on which you have reactions of physical, biological, chemical nature in this case biological could be a directly tributary area, which is a local community carved within the community like at their each scale and we thought of doing so, we referenced to something which is quite important, we took on the whole archive of local species diversity of fish populations in Mississippi, Missouri river system and LSR means local species richness however defined essentially can count the observed number of species which you have. So in a DTA in one of the notes of the links in which you can partition I'll be showing you now you can extract that objectively and manipulated remotely acquired and objectively manipulate the structure of the Mississippi, Missouri river system on a grand scale. In a DTA a fish unit can be thought of as a subpopulation of fish of the same species and you have a number of ways through which you can do that by expert things by the surveys by the collection that Bill Fagan the fish biologist has compiled for the whole of the United States and the idea of course in this case which you see in fact there is a the color called the local species riches which is different from the various places and what you see here this AARP this rather obscure in fact acronym means annual average runoff production which is essentially runoff I mean the total volume of runoff that passes through any particular cross section that is the hydrology. Now it doesn't take an expert statistician but simply a not a particularly a trained eye to see that there is a correlation between how much runoff you have in a particular place in different directly tributary area that is the hydrology the hydrology control and the local species diversity but to formalize this what you can do we can extract objectively even humongously large networks to detail which is actually in fact one of the reasons why in fact over the debate of critical self-organization that is why in fact certain recurrent characters embedded in a power law distribution of some aggregation structure of a catchment is the same regardless of climate vegetation exposed lithology the scale etc but something truly remarkable already the networks that generated files like or data sets like this one in which you can characterize a structure from the scale of one meter or less to the scale of thousands of kilometers and in terms of area even more so that can be done I hinted at that briefly in the first class and not touching on it but I assume that this is something which when you can trust me we've been working for like 20 years in characterizing those network shapes like these ones so let me see how essentially the model proceed it's it's well I have a few notes here but it's not going to be particularly but the idea is that it's likely experiment you've seen the neutral meta community or meta population experiment that I showed you in the animation I showed before they showed also in lecture one so these the assumptions in this case is every dta that is every unit is essentially saturated at its capacity that is no resource available to fish is assumed to be left unexploited now of course you're talking about some sort of an upper limit to be to a fish diversity but that's also quite remarkable how close I will show you this will be reproduced so the model dynamics proceed as in the other case which you have seen that is at each time step you randomly select a fish unit selected for all the fish units in the in the whole system and you assume it to die and the resources that previously sustained that unit are freed and available out for grabs for a new fish unit so we have certain probability which we term again the diversification ratio the new unit the fish unit will will be a new species it will probably be one minus new in fact it's going to be one of the existing species that colonizes the spot and the cost of diversification ratio a rate in this case could represent external interaction on non-native species we have seen how foreign invasions are so important ecologically for a variety of ecosystems or could be immigration or re-immigration in fact of a new species from outside the region you have seen the case of the example if you may recall from lecture two when we studied the breeding birds of of North America as a or the Kansas prairie uh uh species or Bassius species in fact that um in fact they the concept persistence time local persistence and local extinction has to be seen in the context of the geographical uh area which this is done so um uh with the probability one minus new the new unit can belong in fact to the to the species to be uh to be et cetera and the idea is that in this case you don't uh touch only nearest neighbors but essentially you characterize a probability pji ij i'm sorry that the empty unit in the ith uh dta in the ith node the directly tributary area whatever you're not calling is colonized by a species which is elsewhere in the j uh uh dta's that appear in the system through a kernel a dispersal kernel that you're having to say which uh uh specifies and measures the range of a species colonization now what is important here is a non-neutral effect um which is uh however not dictated by uh by uh a calibration not dictated by uh uh biological dynamics but essentially dictated by hydrological controls because it's geomorphological so you assume that the habitat capacity determining the resource in the place is the fluvial habitat capacity which is established on the scale of the basis of a scaling geomorphic relations we had hinted at that characterized the fact that um you can decide based on certain metric properties which are remarkably obeyed in the runoff producing area of any river worldwide and are dictated by the aggregation structures essentially the habitat capacity in the place is essentially dictated by how much area you had behind your back how many nodes do you collect through the structure of a network again which is a given now what is interesting that the dispersal kernel has certain features of which I shall not discuss but essentially what you have I want to study the particular back to back exponential which has a tradition in ecology one or another in fact we tested several of them um we were asked by the nature reviewers in fact to uh to run a comparative analysis and we apparently convinced them because we got published but the idea is that for instance if you assume the two units two nodes two dta's are uh ij what is the distance that separates them now that's interesting for colonizers because if you assume the colonizer strong fish units right um the path the path that connects you uh i to j could be partly downstream and partly upstream or could be strictly downstream or strictly upstream depending on ij now the question is you may bias the path because if you are a weak juvenile fish for instance a small one you may be way more affected by the velocity that is the drift which is embedded in the stream flow direction that is the oriented nature of the graph then it could be for a strong adult big fish right so either way then you may bias and weigh in fact the downstream direction the upstream direction distances which you have in the system which makes it reasonable and this is a tunable parameter in a sense but in a neutral case we kill it and we assume that all species are equally important to the capital at the at the per capita level so briefly as a result of what you're seeing here is in the frequency distribution of local species richness by letting the model run to stationary state now um it may be uh you may like it you may dislike it a set about for us it was totally remarked on how simply the nature of a connected of a connected system and the habitat size which is produced by scaling relations being embedded in geomorphological laws it's the aggregation structure um can allow us to reproduce wonderfully well um how the alpha diversity the distance to outlet i'm sorry this is i made a mistake i was anticipating what i explained here in fact so this is not a frequency distribution this is the how the alpha diversity unfolds from the outlet to the upstream distances with obvious differences which you have in a certain place for instance um this is blown out because you may have the the data telling you that some freshwater tolerating coastal fish species in fact could or human disturbance in fact or or pollution for that matter um alter what you would have otherwise a distribution that is what the data are showing in the new original new links and the same applies to the same thing at the same time which is also remarkable how the frequency distribution with respect to the distance to be out there the frequency of local species with respect to the thing that is you count essentially the number of species that equally distance from the outlet you got some sort of a range which is reproduced without any tuning by the model signifying once more one of the main tenets of my classes that there is something inherent in the directional dispersal implied by the network structure which is the substrate for ecological interactions which is given the system grant in the system uh reliability and predictability what is interesting also is that if you run the same exercise without changing the habitat capacity per every node embedded as proportional through um predictive geomorphological laws by the structure the aggregation structure which is essentially dictated by the total contributing area at any point deciding how big is your river and then what you see and you screw up completely in fact the uh the exercise and you see the hydrological controls embedded in any neutral model which is the simplest possible zero order approximation there's no description of the of the properties on which fish biology spending lifetimes of scientific work um are mostly explained by the hierarchical size structure of the fluvial network and it's embedded topology which is also reinforcing what we have seen before now things become slightly more complicated if you go into not only starting local species riches by the correlation structure which is a beta diversity that is um what is the probability that the existence of a species in one place is uh matched by the probability of existence of the same species at a certain distance distance being uh measured in so called chemical distance which is along the network structure so this can be done you can generate equi-probability maps which is the ratio between the number of common species that you have and the species in the central DTA to see how the system behaves in fact so this um reinforces the uh the main tenet that I've been hammering on for quite a few times and I am now ready to move on following what Marino Gatto has told you about the evolution of our thinking about spatially explicit epidemiology uh by the original ideas that motivated us to go to jump into COVID-19 studies through the same technological tool in as much as some tales some some small factories that you had in the Milan area we used to make um high-fashion dresses converted the alliance of production into mass productions during the COVID-19 it was a relatively jump um an easy jump for us but I'll spell you how in fact this uh thinking uh this way of thinking and this line of thinking that brought to the book um I talked to you about uh allowed us to move on to jump from fish biodiversity straightforwardly to the study of river networks as ecological corridors for waterborne disease let me see why now um here's a river network and let's assume those dots are human settlements so essentially what we're saying is that um what if we thought notes are human communities where they are in fact with their population of their size etc where disease can spread and um you have a demography of a population of a demography of a disease based on the demographic evolution of susceptible individuals in fact individuals possibly recovered and possibly via the as you've seen in the case of Shisto quite importantly um through the example that um uh that uh Marino has pointed out or which I I'm briefly returning by mentioning his mentor because it's important for one of the tenants of my work that is you may in fact couple these with control variables which pertain again water controlled but uh that pertain the ecology of a disease that is if you have for instance intermediate obligatory um intermediate hosts for the development of a disease so um why this is interesting the example of a Shisto I will just briefly show the main results that Marino showed you the helmings and you see why this is important right and but the motivator I'm giving it um it's more um it's it's a more important that's where we carried out the field work that we carried out with my lab if I think Burkina Faso where we had like a 20 year 20 20 year uh long experience in uh collaboration in in cooperation to develop this so um it what is incredible in this area is that in sub-Saharan Africa you have something like in a debilitating disease which is not killing anyone so it's a neglected tropical disease you have like 15 million uh disability adjusted life years uh that do take into account and what you have in particular regions you have different types of Shisto as Marino has shown I'm just going through briefly because and that's what we had uh in the camp that we have uh in Burkina Faso we deployed and one graduate student in fact carried out his entire PhD thesis on that why this is interesting again it's a complex like cycle and it is interesting for us the existence the need to take into account hydrological controls this is the part which indeed um pertains to how form and function of the river network operates because why because if you have like this marriage this fertilization of the successive stages of the of the uh of the uh disease need to hatch the eggs the best place in which they they are generated within the infected host and they have a worms the fat worms that generate the sarcaria or myra sedia in fact in live in the and they excrete the three thesis they get into a water environment in which I have to um they have to be infecting snails uh in a given time now that depends of course on shear stresses depends on the flow velocity depends on the habitat size it depends on whether the habitat suitability for the intermediate host is given so something in which as you've seen with marino we'll be back into the system so that's what you have and what you have seen and that's the point I'm making um the point I want to make here is that um pricing the planet as a environmental economist pointed out that is um if you don't account for a depreciation of natural capital um that means that um essentially ecosystem services that are carried out that you cannot quantify precisely are worth zero so pricing the planet means that you have to give the monetary value to the services you may lose as an alternative like in this case making way for a commercial center by destroying a mangrove swamp um that means that in the in gross domestic product indicator GDP like indicators are well-being you will see the advantage in the following year of the of the commercial center of the benefits of it but you don't see the loss which is associated with the ecosystem services you lose from flood protection to uh to uh carbon sequestration to uh fish nursery areas and the likes so the idea and that's part of the sculptors main point is that indicators that do not account for the depreciation of natural capital uh put development thinking uh stacked against nature in a sense uh against environmental thinking and the very idea of a misinterpreted kutznet's curve that is that if your GDP goes up uh down goes the inequalities in that place is essentially false as Thomas Piketty in fact has shown quite clearly in his wonderful book the capital of the 21st century what happens is that in reality indicators that omit the depreciation of natural capital are totally unsuitable for describing the wealth of nations and here is my point meta studies um that and i'm i'm reasonably sure that marino hasn't spoken about it and the interviews my discussion in fact showed that there is a clear relationship between the expansion of irrigation canals and some of the 15 000 small dams so we have seen i took this picture near our field site in Burkina Faso in fact uh the uh the construction of irrigation channels that were possible because of a 15 000 world bank funded uh small dams that uh littered Burkina Faso in fact had the consequences so the water resources development scheme of a largely improved GDP of Burkina Faso but in a humongously large expansion of a habitat suitable for the intermediaries host to the disease and thus the prevalence of the disease so the idea is that can we put a price tag on the learning impairing disability brought in by a disease of this kind complicated complicated and our permanent liability our the our inability to predict for instance the number the increased prevalence um in unless you have significant and reasonable models of the expansion of the disease then um you know as a matter of fact i won't be able to put the price tag on and this is the same place and this is a picture that i took in the same place how can you keep uh little guys away uh from uh the water when you have ephemeral ponds generated by the system mind you that in this case as you're very well known because of the wonderful lectures that truly marino has put forth on the subject that um the uh the those largely penetrate the skin uh in matter of second our student that was here only once put his hands in the water dropping the gloves when he dropped scissors just he totally just uh and picked up in a second the scissors that was enough to create to to get the system in a sense why this is important and related to what you have seen um in the uh previous slides for the fish diversity it's a picture you're seeing from marina because the set of equations and i'm not insisting on that is something which you have coupled um coupled uh oddies like in this case is the main word burden that you have uh like in the system here the prevalence of infection in the intermediate host in this case is why and these are the the essentially the densities of a circarie and mirasidia in node i of a of a dta that is of a single node in which you can characterize the system i'm not pretending that you follow the system but you realize that in here you have a number of extensions which are quite important they pertain for instance human mobility that is if you have a guy that migrates to go to a place to cultivate the feeding that uh uh because of the expansion of the irrigation network human mobility does affect in fact carrying away an exposure and the concentration of circarie that generates the burden of disease in an individual that's how the system expands so in a sense you realize that you are moving the study of diseases onto a plane which is completely different and the set of system is a classical system through which used to uh engineering environmental engineering tools and i want build on that in particular know or what you have seen uh with marino about how you characterize the stability of the system and uh possible ideas you have on how to curb again this eigenvector analysis you're seeing with marino is telling you essentially how you can actually generate the patterns of disease and what i really like is the idea is that you cannot make discussions what happens for instance if at random there's an exercise we ran um you remove 10 percent of a small dance thereby reducing the distance the mean distance to the nearest water body which is arguably the most important factor of completely geomorphological origins that generates the exposure so and that's the experiments we had in the place and i'm not building any further uh or uh all the diseases that can be treated in this manner what i'm concentrating here i'm getting back to the first slide in the last 20 minutes of my of my lecture and then i'd be delighted to answer your questions um you remember the little guy here on the banks of a magna river uh where uh we did field work on chronic effect cholera i'll be talking about epidemic cholera in a minute was trying to convince me that it's impossible the mighty waters of a of a magna were the cause of cholera which originated in that region in fact evolutionary um and then from there irradiated worldwide in several waves of pandemics but most significantly 200 meters downstream of the largest derail disease hospital in the world uh in Bangladesh now um the point i'm making and i'll be carrying out to the end is that the inherent predictability that you grant the system by using uh directional dispersal embedded in the known a priori and calculated and treated objectively offline remotely acquired and objectively manipulated offline structure of river network grants unprecedented predictability to disease of this kind and in particular this became absolutely vital when we started we were just working on that we had published the first spatial explicit model of epidemic cholera in with reference to the outbreak that was in KwaZulu Natal in South Africa based on data that were collected much afterwards in hindsight but what happened is that on October uh uh in the week preceding October 10 2010 all of a sudden in a country where cholera free for more than 200 years you've got an outbreak which started propagating downstream the arty bonita either in the heart of in the heart of the Haiti an island the island of Haiti the part of the left not the Dominican Republic you just cut in half good example that Jared Diamond um in fact in his collapse a wonderful book was making an example of how in fact the emperor of sin and the bad management of resources explains the uh a not simply environmental factors uh determine in fact the fate of societies now what was interesting you see the number of cases jumped all of a sudden from day zero to the from 50 to 100 to 200 in places which are small places indeed and right downstream of a un camp of peacekeeping curves what is not only ironic sad and it's it's really affecting me uh very much is the fact that why were peacekeeping troops in Haiti because a few months earlier Haiti the poorest country in the world had been struck by an earthquake that killed 300 000 it destroyed the little infrastructure was there uh uh sewer systems were non-existent and roads were destroyed people died um a civil uh infrastructure was demolished it was a it sits on one of those plate tectonics on which earthquakes can be particularly devastating on top of that we planted the disease because it was shown when it was mapped the genome but it was a Nepalese strain of cholera when it is endemic brought in by asymptomatic uh peacekeeping forces anyways that was a fantastic exercise in a sense because in a completely naive population as that's a term that you use in these cases um they and um but these uh or you can assume safely but because uh no sign of cholera was there for almost 200 years but the entire population was susceptible to the disease and what happens is that then you had thousands of deaths you had a mortality initial mortality we was totally remarkable because there were roadblocks to treat people transported by poor means like on the shoulders of a of a younger in fact to be treated to centers there are roadblocks to make it and say that after a year like eight percent of the population of the million people was uh affected and this picture I took into an hospital in Leogane and you see what was essentially the treatment was even I have to say among the sanctity that I've seen in the Medecin Saint-Francaire hospitals organized in the haste in the place or the Cuban brigade that took up the north of the country to assist but essentially put people on the stretcher you cut a hole in the thing and you collect the stools like six times a day and what is totally remarkable that you survive cholera easily you only have hydration bags to which you should be attached now let me show you the evolution of the daily cases in Haiti for about a year and a half then I think it comes blurred afterwards but that's quite interesting so you have the evolution of the daily cases in the half of the ispaniola island this is a part of Haiti and I didn't put the data which came later on in fact for the two islands they still belong to the same place etc so this is how they disease in terms of simply recall reported number of cases with all the inherent error of the system and that you had in there this is the city of Port-au-Prince here is a large scale of a number of cases if I'm asking you what do you see here well you see the rivers so you even by seeing the most gross indicator number of reported cases what you see in the place is that the avenues of the riverways where the pathogen in fact survives in the environment in the open waters in fact is what generates the system etc so essentially you can't have something in which you essentially can calculate the rate of change of new cases of cholera in every single place that that you have but you have to take into account a spatially explicit system we put settlements where they are connectors where they are and the likes not only that if you take the red curve is what happened in the first wave followed like in covid but for completely different reasons a second wave which is clearly related to factors like the tropical rainfall that you have in the place why well the easiest is not simply an overflow of sewers but simply the wash out of open air defecation sites which you have to take into account and the fact that the freshly shaped bacteria the bacterium in fact like a single infected individuals expels and through the faeces like a hundred times more bacteria that in concentration which are also magnitude larger than any any possible survival in the environment so it is the human human host in fact the main reason of a propagation whether symptomatic or asymptomatic whether it moves or not if you have a susceptible person moving on to the wrong place drinking the wrong water and getting back he brings back the disease it happened to me when I was in the market of our tibonid well I'll tell you when I show you a picture later on so the tools of the trade now is knowing ahead of time where settlements are where patterns of rainfall evolve and how the disease can be predicted under these conditions putting that cities in human settlements where they are connected by the waterways as we can see them directly so the idea that in a system like that you have two different networks a network which you which you have like pathogens connecting nodes if they are downstream of an of a river system or and that's a key place you can have connections among nodes human communities in which we population each population each sub eye this is node i in which the disease can diffuse and grow connected by a multiplex network of a different time of a different kind in this case human mobility as you now very well known from marino gato's lecture on kovid-19 the spreader the mean mechanism whatever its shape it is and but we had seen even in my set of lectures what happens when we consider from a zebra mussel invasion of a mccp Missouri river system you see that you saw that at times unconnected flare-ups of of those development of those clusters of zebra mussels were generated away from a main backbone of a hydrodynamically generated dispersion why because of the ballast water in which belliger survived where we're taken away and and tucked to different place maybe hundreds of kilometers away from the same place the mechanism of generating the system of this kind so the tools of the trade in this case are the tools of the trade of geosciences of digital information systems or geographic information systems if you want that is we can and we could do it remotely when we predicted the evolution of them of the epidemics of cholera in the place which i'll be showing you in a minute because the digital terrain map from which you extract the river network as i hinted at in my introductory class is something we should do with the standard exercise that that master students do where we are you can have pixel-based estimate of population density you can have modeling of human mobility which is something which requires some thought and some care in fact generated maybe simplified at times but i'll tell you what is the capability of attracting places like on the main point like potter plants that you have in this system and the set the tools of the trade i mean they different every time but the that's why i showed you before the ones that marino have shown you for schistow so essentially the state variables are susceptibles at node i at time t infected and node i at time t and the bacterial concentration in the reservoir of the i-th community evolved it because of the different factors which is the mortality the survival of the vibrio in the environment with a certain mortality rate of seeing really how long you get survived or transport in a certain proportion coming from connections that are hydraulic and hydrologic connections that depends on the various sizes of the of the water reservoir the water reservoir which is important because essentially you can assume that one stool a single infected person has a certain probability distribution in terms of absolute number of of bacteria shed which is again six orders of magnitude more than you have for the concentration of bacteria in the free living waters and that is the infection thing that generates the P you see P the infection per unit infected person which is here you have a the force of infection depends on the local infections plus the of infections connected by a mobility matrix this is a mobility factor which you have in the system so of the i persons that live in the community uh i sub i infected person where the symptomatic or asymptomatic stay there and pollute the water or you may have persons that because of mobility and its matrix of fluxes generates the infection shed into the place to which you could possibly add like you have it here the rainfall runoff production of vibrios generated by the system again i cannot pretend to explain the details but you see how this is done for instance um and you have seen in introduction to the disease um ecology that marino put together in this case we assume the timescale of our prediction is one in which recovered persons i mean i put back into the susceptible compartment at a time which is one of the role of the order of two to three years and this is the force of infection depends on a number of factors my scope here is not to it's getting curious about the strength but you see that the structure is exactly the same of the schisto is exactly the same of a Mississippi Missouri biodiversity model and it's exactly the same ones we have seen before so let me show you how the model works if you assume a piano network very important because if you have like in every node you have a population of the same capacity all of them uh uh prone to have the diffusion of the cholera uh that what you will have in the system right and why this interest is a calculated speed of a traveling wave of cholera under a simplifying assumption which depends on the local reproduction number but if you assume as it is meaningful and reasonable the distribution of the in a topologically connected system of this kind you have that no distribution the population distribution is taken drawn from a distribution which is normally i mean almost universally a power log exponent minus two the zipped distribution what you have is that um now what you see in the system that you have flare-ups in a mechanism which is exactly the same and why because that's the effect of factors that can be uh uh remotely measured and objectively uh manipulated in this case the population size and certain effects of the delays that you have in the system especially explicit have nothing to do with the disease and everything to do with the geomorphology and the ecology of the system so i took to haiti a few times uh and uh what these pictures i took they are kind of blurred and i love pictures but the reason being is that um my uh my glasses were shut because people could kill you to steal your camera because there's no police left in the place we have no sewers no streets to stick off and this also shows how large patterns of infection accompanied you consider this safe water bottled water with the guy that handles them uh by the neck in this case quite remarkable or there are places he's taking in the again in the Bangladesh conflict he's taking which the water reservoir which could be a highly abstract uh phenomenal parameter of the system in the case of urban setting possibly proportional to the population or in this case you see it or a very physical system like you had in Bangladesh as i was telling you and this is the market or car food in the outskirts of of Port-au-Prince where i've been sitting in the system and and what i told you and was totally remarkable is this lady which you're seeing here blurred against because of a of a safe glass beyond it uh in a matter of second um uh bought a cabbage at this guy and i couldn't i was speechless when i saw it by showing uh a Nokia 1900 proof of concept uh uh i'm sorry Nokia 1900 telephone is a proof of payment so in a place in which you have no sewer system as you see it water flows through the market in this case you have no roads you have no police but you do have a telephone which is a way less uh biased socially biased system as we have seen and this is hard like human to human transmission this is public transportation high eating fact takes a place and that's the last thing that i want to show you that models and data in fact uh uh they are not perfect modeling things etc i mean you have Bayesian estimation parameters but the very fact that you're using specially distributed quantities uh make sure that in reality the distance within model and data is so small that operational decisions can be taken based on that and i'm skipping this part because it's too late is Marino Gatto and his idea that in especially explicit um uh uh uh models of disease development in fact you can have even an eigenvector can represent the pattern of disease before it happens and quite interestingly you show also that the local reproduction numbers meaning uh the test for the potential for the outbreak to occur is neither necessary nor sufficient the condition for epidemic disease outbreak if you compare to real cases whenever you have a spatial explicit system in which human mobility is a driver not is an embedded driver but it can be calculated and i skip this part i skip also this because i realized i chatted too much about how proliferative kidney infusion can be studied and i jumped from the last two uh uh fish diversity in that case and and the deadly infections in fish are in fact the proper into the channel network was all the network to speak about so my conclusions the whole the general conclusion is that eco-hydrological footprints of river networks as ecological corridors are demonstrated they are pretty strong in fact and from peaks of prevalent in waterborne disease infections to any kind of large scale patterns of species abundance and biodiversity or even the susceptibility to biological evasions that we're seeing it's only the water so in a way it's written is something which could be remotely acquired over over virtually six orders of magnitude and remarkably compelling so in a sense towards a fair distribution of water which is my punch line it is that uh attaching a price tag to certain things which weren't uh material uh materially or observables in economic terms but they are absolutely vital because they don't have a way of predicting what would be the impact for each of the of a an expansion of water resources exploitation patterns in the expansion of a disease for each cost so they open they a quantitatively open to a quantitative evaluation on ecosystem services to rethink in a sense um social equality and I thank you uh with that thank you thank you very much on that we can open the floor for questions quick question yes please um in the in the model towards the beginning when you show the alpha diversity increasing as you go downstream is this is this increase and consequence of accumulation of species going down because they cannot migrate upwards or is it that consequence of just more populations interacting and getting going together uh as we reduce the number of canal downstream that's a good question the kernel for for dispersal species are the same everywhere what makes the difference is the fact that habitat size and thereby the carrying capacity of the population of every species changes uh with respect to the downstream direction because of a natural accumulation so it's an external factor which is dictated by the aggregated structure of a network that gives an inherent predictability even though I mean how could you possibly consider all fish species equally uh equally capable of dispersal for instance or insensitive to drift uh at the per capita level and yet neutral pattern um doesn't require a neutral process that's what I'm saying so a neutral patterns are more general that's what in fact famously pervies and pacala could hold and if I if I made just a quick follow-up was that pattern completely monotonic I noticed it was not it was not a straight line it was there was some no that's you have to see the two patterns uh together so one is the frequency of species distribution uh with respect to the distance to the outlet so essentially you count the number of sites which you had the same distance from the outlet it's a fairly complicated structure so essentially it opens up and closes up and uh and uh and the other one is essentially the simply they you simply measure the average that is the local species that is you have a different distance from the of course if you are interested in the catfish distribution the neutral model won't work right so you have to go into a serious model of the thing I said but if you look at large scale patterns for instance for uh conservation reasons that the the neutral pattern gives you robustness reliability and the capability to make decisions actually especially for conversation for for conservation practice okay if you're not further question I'm starting to be delighted to go because I have another meeting fairly soon


So here's the Ziggy packs and who are you? Yeah, I'm Andy also. I'm here. Yeah So you're showing new Android smartwatch. Yes, the newest angel 4.4 Yeah, the new teaser models. You can see it's Appearance icons will change the menu and make it more professional more like lights icons Like like what sorry? Yeah, I like what's up and the play Google Play Store, right? The radius many many functions and you can download any APK in it Yes, and it also have a good camera now Before you know all the vision is only 2 p.m. Right now is 5 p.m. Fine make a pistol Yeah, it's very high cleaner right now. Yes, and so is this already mass production? Yeah already around until now around one month. So how many do you sell? Yeah, we sell it at around 80 to 150 dollars a different quality different price like this So different quality different price. Yeah order a big quantity. They can get better price better price Yes, this is this is the previous one. Yeah, this is another model like Something gear something. Yeah, you can see they have a two functions first. It can put a sim card Back they need to like our normal mobile phone use this one. Is it also sim card? Yeah It's some card so both iPhone iPhone sim card. You can put it here here. You can see nano sim Okay, yeah, some cash route No nano sim or micro sim a micro sim micro sim like in the other one also micro sim And this one is for the normal normal sim normal sim and this is like half price No, yeah half is very cheap because it's not angel system, but it also have a strong faction They have two factions first you can put a sim card and then use it as a normal mobile phone Right meaning mobile phone and the second you can choose it to connect with your iPhone your angel phone Then you can like something gear you can send call many many notifications From your phone to the watch directly and also you can call from the watch outside or receive calls directly Also music message Facebook Twitter Gmail weather like this nice and smooth UI, but it's not and yeah Capacitive all capacity starts at 40. Yeah, yeah, all right So people just send you email make a big order. Yeah, send me I'm a curious 500 pieces and if you order more a price is better and you have a different color Yeah, we have Silver gold black and this is the other model And you have a round one coming out Next week we'll finish it next week is finished is ready next week with the wrong display Yeah, the wrong round one is a different style than before you can see All right Looking forward to that. This is the 657 7. Yeah It's another angel the cheaper triple angel phone Cool. Yeah How is it cheaper? Yeah, because you can see at a mature.  All right, so what's gonna happen with Android wear? Yeah, and your will is that so water where I'm now developing with our engineer team now I think at the end of this yeah, we'll finish it For sure. Yeah, so I already take together with Android wear. Yes, and Android are also if you have a sim card or only for Companion also with the same card you will do companion. Yeah, yes Like this model. I just show you is how both functions also can put sim card and also can companion with another mobile Android can do that. Yeah, so the Android version can also do companion Let's model. This is more like you'll mean alone. Ah, yes, it's time to mobile phone stand alone. Yeah, yeah so All right, so looking forward to Ziggy packs and Android wear and Android 4.4 with the 657 2


Welcome to July set news to get top stories in crypto and a big amount of bite-sized pieces today. Just as the thumbnail suggests, there's a lot of shilling from people up top about what is happening in the Bitcoin and crypto market. And we're going to take a look at the top down approach and what I think is going on. We're going to take a look at the squares, big revenue maker, surprise Bitcoin. Also take a look at three prominent mayors in the United States and what they're doing as far as cryptocurrency. We're also going to take a look at a senior member of the Senate and what he is talking about as far as crypto and where things are going. We'll also take a look at banks and how they're actually getting on board. And finally, we'll take a look at another side of the coin and take a look at the gaming industry as far as crypto and digital assets. And we're going to talk about who's going to come on the show next week. So we'll get to all those things. But first, take a look at what's going on in the market. So today is a pretty great day. Beautiful here. Friday weekends here. Everybody's happy, right? Not only is everybody happy for the weekend. We're also happy because the market still maintains a nice slight buoyancy. And we've got 2.7 trillion. The sentiment is pretty much neutral because we don't really know if it's going to go a little bit down or a little bit up. But we know where things are going to go in the long run. And that's that's up. Now, if you're new to the crypto space, just be aware that this is super volatile. So if you see a 10 or 20 percent swing, don't go crazy. We just call it a Tuesday. Nobody really cares. That's just pretty much how that's just par for the course. Then we take a look at some of the big gainers for the day. Bitcoin's only run 61,000. There's not really too much going on there. 24 hour change. Binance coin is up bigly. Good for them. Everything else a little bit down in the last 24 hours, except for Shiba Inu making another pump. Good for you. If you hold on to Shiba Inu, I don't have any. But hey, some people get rich off that. Some people make like millions of dollars off that thing. But again, for the long run, I'm just a long term investor. That's not my style. And let's see what else. 31 percent for crypto.com. Fantastic. ICP and so on and so forth. So market's strong. Market's good. Everybody's happy. Why don't we just break into today's one of today's top stories? And that is Square's big revenue maker. And it really wasn't about so much about how Square is doing per se. Square is going to do just fine, whether it's crypto or digital assets or whatnot. But if we take a look at the past, you can really see just how massive this is. And I'll explain that in a second. So Square's cash app generated 1.8 billion in Bitcoin revenue and Q3. So good for them. But there's a caveat. So payments from Square set in its third quarter earnings letter Thursday that it's it's apt to cash app generated 1.82 billion dollars of Bitcoin revenue in the quarter and 42 million of gross profits. That's up 115 percent and 29 percent. You're over a year. And just so you know, they did say that this was a little bit of a slight decrease and they said this is because of the relative stability in the price of Bitcoin, which affects trading activity compared to prior quarters. Because, you know, you have to understand the exchanges and even cash happening like that, they're going to make a lot of money if you trade a lot. If you get in there and you move things around, you trade.  But I don't do that because I don't have. I don't really like to sit and watch candles and charts all day. I got other things to do. So if you want to make a ton of money that way, that's not this channel. But for this, they're saying, hey, you know what? We're down a little bit because there's a little bit of a decrease in people actually buying. And that's why you're going to see the different exchanges. List the Shiba Inus, list the Doge coins, list the whatever new meme coin is out there because they know people are going to trade it like crazy and they make a lot of money. But that's not the big story. The big story here is I want you to remember a couple of numbers. Cash App generated 1.82 billion of Bitcoin and 42 million of gross profit. That was in Q3, right? So if we take a little time warp and go back in time, just a little bit, on February 26, 2020, I'd cover this story at that point. And this is how big things are growing. Bitcoin drove half of Square's Cash App revenue in fourth quarter. Nobody, that's great. Whatever everybody's excited about that. But look at these numbers. Square reported Bitcoin revenues of 178 million between November 1 and December 31, Q4. 178 million in Q4. That's the revenue. You know how much the revenue was here? 1.82 billion of Bitcoin revenue. So let's compare that real quick again. Bitcoin revenue of 178 million and Bitcoin revenue of 1.82 billion. I'm no math genius. That's a pretty good spread. Also, the profits were 3 million. Again, 3 million profits here, 42 million. So now do you kind of get why these industries are jumping in?  And that's really what it comes down to. So all these changes and all the different banks that are looking around going, wait, wait, you're telling me that I can make that much just by adding one of these cryptocurrencies and not just Bitcoin. So as we move forward, we'll see it all plays out. But now you kind of understand a little bit more of like just how much money is really being out there. And that's a ton. Let me just think about that in the comments section. And then let's take a look at the politicians because they want to be a part of this train, too. So real quick, there was three mayors that came out. The New York mayor-elect, Adam, says he will take his first three paychecks in Bitcoin. Good for him and just a real quick snippet here. New York mayor-elect Eric Adams to Thursday would take his first three paychecks in Bitcoin and signals his attention to make the city the center of the crypto industry after he takes office in January. Hopefully he can get that bit license craziness to go down a little bit as far as the requirements because I mean, we have some super great industries trying to get that bit license from New York and they can't do it because they keep in turn out because there's so much data and documents they need is ridiculous. So hopefully he can say, you know what, let's just make this the epicenter. Let's just move forward because there's too much regulation right here. Let's break that up a little bit and so we can get things going. That is the mayor right there, mayor-elect. He doesn't take office until December, January. Correct me in the comments, but he's just he's just the mayor-elect of New York right now, but it's I like where he's going. Looks pretty good. Also on top of that, we know this guy, Suarez, Miami mayor to take his entire salary in Bitcoin. He's like, oh, yeah, you're going to take three paychecks.  So Suarez is is on top of things and not to be outdone. And another Florida another Florida mayor says, I'm going to take them do the same thing. Jane Caster, the mayor of Tampa Bay, Florida, announced she will begin accepting her paycheck in Bitcoin and then not to be outdone, although this is a little bit earlier. You had Rand Paul, one of the senior members of the US Senate says, look, I think crypto should be the world reserve currency. Yeah, he said that. Check this out. Here's what I've started to believe now is that the government currencies are so unreliable. They're also fee on currencies. They're not backed by anything. The dollar has been more stable than most other countries. And so it is the reserve currency. I was by the way, this is the spiel that made you a rock star with young people, presidential. Well, I've started a question now, whether or not cryptocurrency could actually become the reserve currency of the world as more and more people lose confidence in government, losing confidence in government. Who would do that? So there you have it. Everybody is pretty much shilling from the top down with good reason. And I think price action to follow. And that just leads me to my last point, banks. And you've been following the show for quite some time or any length of time. You know that I believe that if banks don't change their tune on crypto, they'll get what's called I call what I call block buster, meaning they're going to be left into the dust. And this just goes without saying that this was an older article, but just as a point of reference, six billion dollar NCR opens Bitcoin purchases to 650 banks and credit unions. This was in June 30th and states 650 US banks will soon be able to offer Bitcoin purchases to an estimated 24 million total customers. Just like what we saw with the cash app. Why wouldn't they do it? It's a great source of revenue and people want it. It's your job as a business to not decide what people want, but to ask what they want and give that to those people. And this is what the people want on top of that's just an old story. That's BNY Mellon, which is one of the oldest banks in the United States to offer Bitcoin services and they really leave the charge moving forward. So again, it doesn't take rocket science to understand, but this is why these institutions and entities are here. So when you're talking to your family, friends and loved ones, just remind them like, look, I think it's a little bit out there. And you think I may be out there, but it's not just me. We've got mayors, we've got politicians, we've got huge corporations, we've got big banks and they're all doing the same thing.  Again, this is investment opinion on investment advice. But that's just what I do when I tell my family. And then lastly, I will just make mention of two things. Plan B, as far as like price action goes, he's been right with his with his TA so far. Remember, the price prediction he's talking about here is TA, not on his stock to flow. And he said August close of 47 K, did September 43 K. October, I think he said 64 K, but it was then he said, well, I was close, 61 K. And he said, look, my next targets are this November, 98 K or 98,000 in December, 135 K. I've always said I've always thought Bitcoin is going to be between 100, 150, 130 K sounds about reasonable to me. So why not? And then we have this little gym right here. This is from Glassnode. They talk about market cap rising faster than value settlement, meaning that they believe that Bitcoin is actually undervalued at this point. So if you put it all together and what do you think is going to happen as time goes on? Well, it's going to be a lot of price action and potentially Buddhism fireworks, which I believe are going to happen November, December. Let me know what you think in the comments section. This will be interesting. And lastly, we'll finish up with a little bit of gaming news and who I got on the show next week. So just real quick, gaming booms amid the metaverse hype. And on the show, I've been covering the traditional blue chip, Creepers, and digital assets. But in real life, I also do a lot of investments into real estate. I have an education online platform and also I do. Um, uh, we have a sports facility and also an Amazon business. But so to put them all together, I really like the whole terms of assets. And I like hard assets. I like assets. I even like metals, gold, silver, sure, I own some of that.  And I'm really excited about the metaverse because I think that that is the new, uh, place to get into as far as for virtual land. And I'll be showing you exactly, uh, the different lands that I purchased and why I purchased those significant, those areas and in what respect. But I just want to show you, if you think like, well, this is really a thing, check this out. So this was a nice little article about crypto briefing. They said October saw blockchain games make up the majority of activity in the DAP industry. 55% of unique active wallets toiling 1.1 million users interacted with gaming DAPs over the past month. And we take a look at this unique active wallets you see here in the dark blue. That's DeFi and DeFi was crushing it. It's been still doing well, right? But in June, 2021, it was it was the majority. Then he had games in this like purplish and then gray was NFTs. NFTs haven't really done a huge amount. I mean, but we hear about it all the time. But if we take if we take a peek behind the curtain, we also see that, hey, games or gaming or play to earn is becoming a pretty big industry. I mean, besides outside of Axie Infinity and what's going on. I think those two things I think play to earn is going to be huge. And I think the metaverse will obviously be huge, but it's the land. It's the land that you buy. It's the land that you own. The different things that you can do on that land because it really is the next big asset. So that is essentially what is going on there. And then lastly, I would say that next week, we'll have a couple of people in the show. We've got some pretty big ones or pretty good ones coming in. We've got Monday. We've got Simon Yu from StormX. And then we've also got Ken. He's the CEO of Meld, which is a nice little DeFi project where it's very interesting about how they positioned it. It was their first ISPO and also the way they lend things out. Also, on Wednesday, I'm going to be doing a series with Key Yong Ju from the CEO of CryptoQuant. It's all about on-chain analysis. And we're going to do a little education series about how to read those things, how to get into it, how to delve into it. So you are prepared when things start to move. And then also on Thursday, we got my man CryptoStash coming on. If you know CryptoStash, he's one of the guys in the description that I recommend to follow. He's been in the metaverse since like the beginning. I mean, he was the first one that I watched about NFTs, gaming and the metaverse. So I'm curious to see what he has to talk about, what may be the next big thing and where we could actually go to. And that is it. So look, if you enjoy today's video, go ahead and give it a thumbs up. But give it a like. That helps a lot. Also, subscribe. A lot of things are going to come fast and furious. So it's good to actually get all the best information or just good information that you possibly can. And that is it for today. So thanks so much for sticking with me. I appreciate it and I'll see you on the next one.