Hey guys, it's MJ the student-actree and we're going to be looking at the two-state Markov model this is chapter 4 for subject CT4 and Hopefully we have enough time to get through all six of these topics transitional diagrams probabilities assumptions the Kolmogorov forward differential equation the likelihood function for mu and the maximum likelihood Estimated for mu so without further ado, let's get into it. Okay transitional diagrams these things are visual representations of the Markov models and They're very simple You have your state that you write here You have the border can be a square or a circle and then you have an arrow that indicates the transition and The arrow is the weight of that arrow is the force so the greater That number is the more likely things are gonna go from this state into that state So what we have here is very simple. I can be alive Or I can be dead and there is a force that is pushing me from being alive to dead and that is known as the force of mortality and What we've got over here or what this formula, you know, I think we all are saying what the force of mortality is But what does yellow formula over here is showing? Let's get a chair it's saying that it is the the probability of Now we know that qx is the probability of someone dying So it's the probability of someone dying of a very very very very small Interval and we're gonna see later how this is the that whole derivatives and This is why mathematics is important for exterior science as you're gonna be needing it to derive these results But this will all become simpler Once we just you know recap on probabilities Essentially, there are two types of probabilities within Mark of models you have the transitional probability. This is the probability that I'm in one state and I move into another state. So in our example tqx This represents that if I'm alive at time x Also, so transitional probability says that this is the probability that I'm dead at times x plus t Given that I was alive at time x So transitional probability, I'm leaving that state to go to another state or There is the probability that I don't die that I stay alive and this is known as occupancy probability Tpx and this is the probability that I'm alive at x plus t given that I was alive at x Now before we can move any further We need to make some Assumptions, okay with regards to this whole mathematical theory, okay With mark of models we make the assumption that they have the mark of prop, you know proper Properties, sorry, and they have the mark of property and that is that the probabilities depend only on the current state So it doesn't matter what your history is everything All information is contained in the present state And so the past does not influence the present that pushes to the future Okay Then we have This assumption over here and what this says is that the probability that I die In states or that I'm dead by time x plus t plus h Given that I'm alive at x plus t is Equal to the force of mortality at h x plus t times by this h Okay, and now that's just that mathematical, you know, that's a function that goes straight to zero as h when you use h but the thing is is to remember here is that h is incredibly small and Again, this is where a background in mathematics does help as it becomes quite philosophical You know, what is a small beta of h anyway if we're not going to get into that too much The final assumption that we're going to make is that the force of mortality or these forces are constant Throughout the year. So you x plus t is a constant mu Okay, as long as t is between zero and one and that's just to make the mathematics simpler and because You know the force does change ever so slightly in a year We can get away with this assumption, but we are losing a little bit of accuracy Okay, now we get on to this thing known as the Kolmogorov forward differential equation and First time looking at this it is difficult. It is intimidating, but let's have a look at it Okay, we have that the probability that I'm alive at h t plus h plus x Given that I'm alive at probability x is equal to the probability that I'm alive at time x plus t given that I was at x Times the probability that I'm alive at time h plus x plus t given that I was at probability x plus t So what what we basically doing is we splitting so and I guess an easy way to say is this the probability that I'm alive in 10 years time is equal to the probability That I'm alive in five year time times the probability that five year older me is alive in a further five years time So you can split probabilities like that Then what we do is we use that assumption The mark of assumption we break it up into oh, sorry what we do is we just use the That relationship that you know one minus p is equal to q or one minus q is equal to p You know if I'm not leaving then I'm staying or if I'm not staying then I'm leaving so that's where and you know Probability is equal to one. So that's how we get that then we use assumption to to Transform the probability into the force like we have there We then rearrange this But yeah, and you'll see that this takes on This year from maths one is very similar to the derivative Sign so when we take the limit of h2o, we get that the derivative of the occupancy probability is Equal to the negative occupants probability times bar the force now This when you think about it it makes sense But you have to think about it this you're not gonna get this straight away by watching this video You know, you're not gonna have to be like oh, wow I understand it now this is something you have to think about and you just have to wrestle with by doing examples Mathematic numerical examples, it will become clearer It does get a bit confusing when you're just using t plus h plus x and all that Anyway, we continue with the Kolmogorov for differential equation We can solve the equation using just the separation method you do some mathematics and You get this very important piece of information, okay We use the assumption the third assumption just to simplify it But this should be looking familiar from subject ct1 when we did the force of Interest, you know, we add each negative Delta, you know Delta was the force of interest type of thing so it shouldn't be brand new stuff to you guys, but it is Difficult, but it is very important like the rest of the course builds upon this result and I wish I could give a better Explanation, but it is difficult and I did this last year. So I'm a little bit rusty, but anyway, that's very important Then I just did some Examples myself and some old study notes, then there's this whole likelihood function and If you've done subject ct3 Likelihood functions should come naturally to you If anyone is struggling with them, let me know and I'll maybe make a ct3 video on the likelihood functions and Then the maximum likelihood estimated, you know, you basically take the log Differentiate set it equation to zero and check the second derivative, but they are very Simple once you understand the concept, you know They're basically saying you count the amount of deaths divided by the amount of transitions to get the force of mortality type of thing So yeah, I know I'm jumping very quickly through this But I don't want this video to be too long and this is very much subject ct3 work What is cool? I'll leave it on a cool note is I mean you can see here the question paper in subject We are in 2012 for the subject had a cool question about aliens Sacrifice becoming dead and then zombies So the examiners do get quite creative with this work, but you can see how There is some fun. This is this is the fun part of actuarial science is these Markov models So, yeah, I know Maximum likelihood estimators. This is subject ct3. So you should be cool with it comogra for differential equations are something new but you should get this feeling from ct1 when we did the force of interest and Yeah learn your assumptions Remember the probabilities. I mean you're gonna use that also a lot in subject ct5 and Yeah, we're gonna be seeing a lot more transitional diagrams But y'all that is chapter for the two-state Markov model for subject ct4. I'm MJ the student actuary. Thank you for watching. Cheers


This 2019 Ram 1500 Crew Cab 5'7'' Short Box Laramie Longhorn Package is stock number 11900ZA. We are here at Summit Automotive in Fond du Lac, Wisconsin. You're new and used light duty truck and Ram headquarters. This 2019 Ram 1500 has the 5.7L V8 Hemi engine. It has been fully safety and inspected by our service shop, has a fresh oil and filter change, all the fluids have been checked and topped off, and this truck is 100% ready to go. Dell Monaco Red Pearl Coat is the color we shoot all of our videos in 1080p, 60 frames per second. So if you have HD capabilities on your computer, tablet, smartphone, or television, turn them on right now because it is definitely your best way to check out the quality and condition and options of the truck before seeing it in person. And if you like the video and want to subscribe to our YouTube channel, the lower right hand part of the screen is a subscribe button. Click that, and then click the bell notifications, you'll get updated every day we do videos of our amazing new and used inventory here at Summit Auto. This one comes with the painted and polished aluminum 20 inch rims. Really nice condition. They get the granite crystal painted inserts, Bridgestone Duler 275 55R 20 tires with I'd say probably about 60% of the tread left. Front fender is in excellent shape, I didn't see any dents or dings on there, does come with the LED projector lamp headlamps, the LED running lights, and the LED fog lamps. Front bumper is in excellent shape, you do get the front bumper parking sensors, the chromed tow hooks, the chrome trim grille, and the hood is in excellent shape, I didn't see any dents or dings on there. Passenger side front fender looks really good as well. No dents or dings on the passenger side rim, no scuffs or scrapes, looks really good. And as you go down this side of the truck, take note of how clean the body is, how reflective and mirror like that paint is. You take these HD videos so if you are far away, or even if you're close by and you just cannot make the trip down but you're still interested in purchasing the truck, you can see the truck, hear the truck, and have confidence in the vehicle that you're looking at before you even get here. So when you do get here, there's absolutely no surprises and you can make a smart and informed buying decision from the comfort of your own home. Very clean down this side of the truck, very, very nice. There's the wheel-to-wheel side steps, this back rim, no scuffs or scrapes on there, and the back tires have just as much tread as the front tires. You get the plastic wheel well wider which keeps your underbody looking good, like that. Step bars are in really nice shape as well. You get the fender flares with the long horn package as you come around to the back of the vehicle, rear bumper, great shape. Back up parking sensors, chrome-tipped, dual rear exhaust, full towing package on this truck of course, receiver hitch, 4-pin and 7-pin wiring, the tailgate is very clean as well. It has a revolver by Back Industries, roll-up tonneau cover, that looks like it's in really nice shape. And it has a very nice spray and bed liner, you get the LED bed lighting back here as well and you can turn that off and on with the push of a button, tailgate shuts nice and solidly. And as you come around the driver's side just as clean as that passenger's side, no denser dings on the box, does have the capless feel-fill which is a really nice feature. And this back rim is in excellent shape as well. Going down the rest of this side of the truck looks really good, no dense, no dings, does have the heated power mirrors with the blind spot mirrors, directional signals inside. The Laramie long horn package gives you the black and brown leather interior. You get the long horn patch stitched on the backrest, no rips, no tears, no excessive wear, both these front seats are heated and cool. This one does have kind of a rare thing, we have weather techs and then we have the factory long horn floor mats that come with this truck, so they're both included. Power pedals, auto headlamps, tilt, telescopic steering wheel, you get this nice wood grain trim on the dash and then it wraps around to the back door. Get the leather bolster there, our windows power locks, power mirrors, you do get the power folding mirrors, I always like showing both sides so that you know that both sides are working properly. And then last but not least, you get the memory driver seat, kind of this goldish trim to the doors and interior. We'll turn the ignition on and then we'll start it up in just a second. First I'll show you the instrument cluster and everything inside here. You can see it does have the digital speedometer, 16,000, 34 miles on this truck. You get the compass, outside temp, miles to empty, battery voltage, oil temp, all that stuff and you can change that to whatever you'd like. It's all configurable, you get the heated wood grain trimmed and leather wrapped steering wheel. Really a nice looking steering wheel, you get cruise controls on the right, gear selector and information center controls and bluetooth controls on the left, audio controls on the back. First button start, you get the 8.4, 4C radio which gives you AM, FM and Sirius XM radio capabilities on here. You also have the factory navigation system which is a nice feature to have and then you have your heated and cooled C buttons and you can check out your backup camera. Now in these new body style rams you have the HD backup camera so it's nice and clear and you can zoom in over your receiver hitch to get hooked up to your boat camper trailer the first time, every time. The other thing on this particular one is you have projection manager where you can project your cell phone to the screen via Android Auto or Apple CarPlay and project whatever is on your phone to the screen, play music through there. We actually did a demo on Android Auto on an 8.4 if you want to check that out it's in the upper right hand part of the screen. Check out that video, remember to hit like and share it. Heated and cooled seat buttons, heated steering wheel button, dual climate controls, more tactile climate controls, you can do them on the radio, you can do them down here.  Passengers side floor mat and seat are in excellent condition, no rips or tears, this truck's never been smoked in, the headliner is absolutely perfect on here and you do get map lights, SOS and assist buttons, power side mirror window button and home link buttons for your garage door security systems and lighting systems. Get that nice wood grain trim on the top of the dash tube. We'll take a quick look at the back seats and then we'll start it up and check out under the hood. Back seats just as clean as the front seats, these back seats are heated on the outboard sides. You get latch child safety system, speakers in the ceiling, power side mirror window with the built-in rear defrost, you get those patches back here as well and notice on the crew cab you get three sets of latch tether anchors for up to three car seats, storage underneath there and you still get, you get that all-weather format back here, the Laramie Longhorn and you get in-floor storage and this one comes with a set of jumper cables, so bonus right there. You get one of those storage bins on each side, two USBs, two USB C's, heated seat buttons and a 115 volt phone or watt plug-in, you get those saddle bag simulators right there, storage in the bins and just a really cool-looking truck, really nicely trimmed out. These seats do recline, they actually are reclined so that's in the upright position and then they recline that much so that's a nice feature as well. Child safety locks on the back doors, the back doors are all trimmed out like the rest of the truck and we'll take a quick look under the hood. Starts right up, no check engine lights or anything like that. I would personally like to thank you for checking out the video today and hopefully from this HD video you will have been able to tell just how clean this truck is all the way around. Inside and out under the hood we have the 5.7 liter V8 Hemi motor, has the MBS system shuts off for the cylinders on the highway, save you fuel, engine base very clean runs very smooth, once again this truck has been fully safe and inspected by our service shop, has a fresh oil and filter change, all the fluids have been checked and topped off and this truck is 100% ready to go. There are those LED headlamps and running lights and I would highly recommend this truck from a quality and condition standpoint and to see more pictures of this truck or one of our other 450 new and used cars, trucks, SUVs, minivans, Wranglers, half tons, three quarter tons, one tons, you name it we got to go to that website right there www.summitauto.com full pictures and descriptions of every single vehicle from two locations all at summitauto.com and if you'd like to check out more HD videos you can go to youtube.com slash summitauto. Remember to like subscribe and share on this video and all the videos that you see there click those bell notifications and you'll get updated every time we do a video here at Summit Auto. In fact in a second you will see a link to subscribe to our YouTube channel in the upper left to link to more Ram 1500 truck videos like this one the upper right. Link to this vehicle on our website in the lower left and link to one of our latest YouTube videos in the lower right. Click those checks out and we really look forward to help you with this super clean 2019 Ram 1500 crew cab short box Laramie Longhorn and Delmonico Red Proco. Thanks again for checking out the video.


So in the last entry, I think I talked about the service worker and some of the offline stuff. And I actually heard from a lot of you in the feedback that that was like, it was complicated stuff. And I agree, it is complicated stuff and complex.  It's quite fiddly work. But there is hope because things like the Cache API, hopefully they can be updated, these APIs that I'm having to sort of work around and kind of work with to make my stuff work. Hopefully, in the long term, we'll get solutions for those at the platform level. And in the interim, I think it's a good thing that you can actually work with these lower level primitives and make the thing that you want to make. That's the genius of the extensible web. Give you the low level primitives. Yeah, there's complexity there, perhaps. Perhaps not. But if there is, you can still write that code. And it's much better than saying, oh, we've got this high level thing. And if it doesn't fit for your particular needs, sorry about that. That's the old web. That's the web we used to have. So anyway, I just kind of wanted to say that just to say, partly, I am reading the comments. I do love reading those comments. And I'm going to say this at the end of the video, but today I'm starting with that. I do read them. I love them. They're really insightful. And often, as you'll also be seeing, sometimes we feel like, why did you do that? Why didn't you do that? And the next thing will be a comment from me to the GitHub commit, where I'm going to change the code, because that was a better idea. So teamwork, that's what this is. Anyway, so I don't want to say that I've solved all the major problems with the app because I haven't. But I did want to spend a little bit of time today looking at some of the smaller details, the little touches that I've been putting into the app. And I just thought I'd pick out two of those for you today, and the first one is white seal and screen. Let me show you. OK, so here we have the video. And I'm just going to pause it. Why is that green? Oh, that's peculiar. We'll ignore that for now. But what I wanted to show you is this down here at the bottom. You see as I'm dragging along, we get this little thumbnail like that. Let's release that. Wow, I do not know what's happened to Pete there. Sorry, Pete.  That's bizarre. Goodness knows what's going on there. Anyway, but this little thumbnail, how am I doing this? I thought this was really a really nice way to visually sort of orientate yourself. We've all seen this on apps and so on. Oh, we can't leave it on that thumbnail. There we go. That's me. Right. Well, the way I do it is I have created an image, one big image for the video. So this is part of the image processing that I do. When I take the video in and I'm making the webms and everything else, I also ask FFMpeg, and you can find the command for it just by searching around, to say every, I think it's like every three seconds, I think I time it to the segment length, actually, because I break my video into three-second segments. And if that's sort of news to you, then definitely watch the ones earlier on in the Dev Diary where I was talking about dash and how you split your video down into these segments, all the same. I ask FFMpeg every few seconds, please can you output an image for me, a small thumbnail? And it is small. It's only like 144 pixels by, was it 256? Whatever it is, it's tiny.  And again, that's just this one line in the command line. And you see that it outputs this video like this, as like a strip, film strip. In the source code, I load this image as, now do I use it, I think I use it as a div, a background image on a div, okay? So I have a div, imagine this, let me show you this here. The white box around it with a little down tick on it, that's a div, and inside is another div that's slightly smaller, which is the same size as one of those frames of the video. And in there, I position another div, a third div, which sounds bizarre. You might be like, well, why is he doing this? Why has he got so many divs all the way down? Surely he could just set background position, he could just drop this in as a background image and then set background position and all would be fine. Yes, I could, but actually, we don't typically want to do that. What we would rather do is we'd rather use a transformer. I always say this about performance, transforms, and opacity, I best friends, I'm almost tired of hearing me say it, but there I go again, doing it once more. What I do is I drop in that image as a full-size div, and I then just transform it up and down. So it's like a sliding window. So you've got this kind of the container element and inside is this div that we just sort of slide up and down with a transform. And how do we know how much to transform it by? Aha, now that's what this code is here. So the available height is basically how tall is that film strip of images? Take away the height of one of the stills, which is, it is 81 pixels. There you go, now that's the answer. I think it's, yeah, it's probably 144 by 81, I think is what it is for each one of those stills. Anyway, so you take away, so you've got the height of the whole thing minus one of one of the frames because you don't want it to be able to go past the end. And then we figure out the index, and the index is basically taken normalized position. So if we, I normalize the time. So if you're, it's a value between zero and one, zero being the start of the video, one being the end. And I say, well, you are say 0.5 way of the way through the video or where you're scrubbing is 0.5 on that line. And what I do is I then say, well, times that by the available height, that should give you where you would need to be in that film strip. And then I round it to the nearest frame so that we don't sort of see half of a frame or three quarters of a frame or sort of fraction of a frame. We want it to be snapped to whole frames. And that's what we do. We just basically find the, that's why there's the floor there. We find this, what I call the index, which is which one of the frames should we be looking at based off that normalized position between zero and one. And then we do a transform on that, the film strip to move it by the correct amount. And that's it. So we've pre-baked this film strip and then we drop it into the page and then we just slide it up and down depending on how far you've slid across the timeline. So that's one. That's one of the things. Let me show you the other one, which I'm quite fond of as well. It is just a little thing. Imagine, I'm just gonna, I'm gonna get rid of the incredible Pete there and just go back to normal image. I'm gonna find out why that happened after this. It's classic, isn't it? It's been working fine, but I effectively do a demo and it all breaks. Brilliant. Anyway, here we go. So what is the other thing? Yes, it's this. Remember now, imagine you're in this situation and you're thinking, oh, look, all this content, isn't that amazing? But imagine you go offline. And that didn't work. Why did that not work? There it, it did work. It just took a while for it to propagate through. You see now, it's faded out and disabled all the things that it thinks we can't click. So let's bring that back online. There we go. You see, it picks that up as well. Imagine then we go and let's go into one of these. Let's pick, let's pick this one. And we will make that available offline. Round it goes, there we are. And we could do the same again, but I've also added this little settings area where we can prefetch popular content, which was the whole, we talked about that in a previous episode, how one of the use cases is, let's prefetch the first like 30 seconds or the first minute of some footage so that we get a flying start. But the other setting, I make that easier setting by the way, because it will use bandwidth and I want to be respectful of people's bandwidth. So I don't just switch it on for everybody. I let them decide that they want to do it. The other one is show offline content only, which is the, I know I'm going to be on a flight or on, you know, some kind of underground train, which seems to be the nature of my life sometimes.  I'm showing that little marker in the top right hand corner just to remind you, you're in downloads only mode so that you don't kind of go, why is nothing working? And you'll see when I scroll down, this one is still lit up. And there you go, I can click into it and I could in theory watch the video. There we are. I'm going to scroll along as well. Ta-da! So let me just talk about some of that stuff. I won't get into probably all of it, but it is interesting stuff. So part of it is the offline-ness of it and then part of it is kind of detecting the offline-y state, which is relatively easy to do if you've got navigator.offline or online or whatever it is, navigator.online, that's what it is, with a capital L. Never really fully understood that one. Navigator.online, it's like you're shouting the line. I think Jake made that point actually in one of his talks. Oh well, we're obviously on the same page. Anyway, let's have a look at a little bit of code. So the vast majority of this is actually hidden in app and we find where it is. La, la, la. It is. This is the thing where I want to find, there we are. Right, disable unavailable links. What we do is we look for all the things that can be effectively disabled by going offline. So that's gonna be like the thumbnails in particular for the videos. And we look and we just say, given all those links, I basically pull out the href from those links and sometimes for specific things, there's an href on the dataset. But what I do is I ask the offline cache, do you have this item, the thing for this path? And if you do, then that's great. If you don't, then we're gonna add on this disabled class which will fade it out and it desaturates the image. And it does all the stuff that I just showed you where it kind of goes, yeah, you're not gonna click on this, are you? So the offline cache.has, let me show you that. Has, has, there it is. So this is an interesting one from my point of view because it's, the simple version of this would be to look inside, and the first version of it, this is exactly what it did. If you imagine that each video has a URL like, you know, show name slash episode name, then I can just look inside the caches and just say, do you have that, yes or no? And if the answer is yes, then I have it and I can just show that link, great. And in the, inside of one of those caches would be, let me show you what it looks like. Neenie, diddy, diddy, diddy. Inside here, inside the cache storage. There we are, CDS show real. It's the video, of course, yes, but it's also, I'll just zoom out a little bit. There, it's the poster frames. It's the URL itself, the video, the page itself. So we've got the HTML, the artwork. We know that the main cache will have all the CSS and icons and everything else. So between those two caches, we should be able to show this particular page. So if we've got a cache with the name CDS slash show real, we're gonna enable that link. But what happens if you were part way through downloading that cache was partly filled and maybe you got the artwork, but you didn't get the video or you didn't get the, or all the video. You got just some of the stuff, but not all of the stuff. I have this purge partial downloads for purge, can't even say it. Take a breather, here we go. Purge partial downloads, there you go, nailed it. Purge partial downloads, I keep saying it, function. Which we use to kind of go in and go, does this look full? Does this look like it's got everything that we'd expect it to have? And I am using the video as a proxy for that. So again, this is something that I might come back to and might refine a little bit further because this is the nature of this. It's a process, I'm sharing with you the process. I'm not saying I have all the right answers and this is just how it's going to be. Very often, as I said at the start, you know, I read the comments or whatever and people are like, you should really have any thought about that and that gives me all the thoughts. Anyway, this is how it currently is. What I do is I go through and I get all the items in that particular cache and I locate the video chunks in particular on the assumption that the video is the likeliest candidate for being the last thing into the cache. So, you know, the artwork and all these things, they're probably gonna arrive much more quickly than say a 40 megabyte or 100 megabyte or a 200 megabyte video. So, I look at the video in particular and I go through and I look for all the chunks. So, I look through every item in the cache but I look in particular for the video chunks and I look for the highest numbered video chunks. So, maybe I say get video chunk 30. And then the thing I do is I look at a video chunk and I say, based off your content length, I would have expected to see 50 chunks. So, I know that I'm expecting 50 but I've only got 30. Therefore, I'm pretty confident I have a partial download. And so, at that point, if I find, I mean, I can compare the largest chunk index to what we would expect to have. If it's not the, if the expected and the max index don't match, then I basically delete that cache. And then, and only then do I actually check whether the cache exists. So, before I respond with, yeah, we've got a cache for CDS slash show reel, I'm gonna go in and say, just get rid of anything that was pending or partial first and foremost. Now, where this might get changed is in the future with something like background fetch. When the background fetch stuff lands, it's possible that the cache would be partially filled because of background fetch. And I don't want to purge it if it's partially filled by background fetch. So, I might have to rethink this. Don't know yet. We're gonna find out, aren't we? That's the exciting part of this. So, there you go. Just a couple of things like feeding out the unavailable links when somebody goes offline, which they can either control themselves or they can, you know, they can mark it as showing the offline content or they can actually, you know, if they're in airplane mode or something like that, it works in that case too because you can get events on the window object for those kinds of things. And having the thumbnail image, just little touches that I hope make it a little bit more fun for people to use the app. Definitely have a look at the source code. It's on GitHub. As always, drop your comments in and you can subscribe as well. And I'll catch you. Yep, always the same. Ready, steady, next time. Hello, thanks for watching. If you enjoyed this video, well, you may enjoy other videos that we make too. So, don't forget you can subscribe and you'll get notified when we push out a new video. And there's more videos over there or down there depending on how you're watching the YouTube's right now. Definitely click on those.


I'm Stan Osserman from the Hawaii Center for Advanced Transportation Technologies on my lunch hour, as always, and my guest is on his lunch hour, too, so his company doesn't try and dock him for pay. And we're going to be talking transportation today. But before I get into that, I have a couple of things I want to talk about. Number one, just give kudos to Blue Planet Foundation for last Sunday's student energy group that they had at the Hawaii Convention Center. It was an outstanding event. Rachel James and I went down and talked hydrogen to about 140 high school seniors that came from across the state. And their project was to simulate that they had the challenge of Apollo 13, and they had to somehow save their spacecraft. And we were the ones talking about hydrogen, hydrogen and fuel cells, and hydrogen for energy storage. It was a great opportunity to talk to the kids. And the best takeaway for me was I asked each group what the Hindenburg was, and almost nobody ever heard of the Hindenburg.  These kids, clean slate, open mind, and they were great to work with, especially the kids from Lanai. Thanks to the kids from Lanai who really latched onto the hydrogen piece, and they're ready to get their whole island set up on a microgrid that runs off of hydrogen energy storage. So it was a great event. So thanks to Blue Planet for putting that on. Other big news for this week is CERF-Co-Hawai, our local Oahu Toyota distributors, are finally releasing their Toyota Mirai, their fuel cell vehicle, for lease. And it's a really, really good deal in terms of, I've looked at the leases in California, compared to the ones that CERF-Co is doing, and CERF-Co is doing an absolutely great lease on that vehicle. And I hope you're on the list. If you're not on the list, they're going through the original list of people who wanted it. And they've got nine vehicles on island that they're putting out there for lease, and they're going to be bringing more in. So we're really excited because these are the first privately owned and operated hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the state. So it's a real milestone for the state of Hawaii. Another thing, last week, we had, as a guest, Mike Stritski from New Jersey. But he's also doing some projects in California. And just before we went on the air, he told us his house in Malibu that he was converting into a hydrogen house had just burned to the ground. So we're looking at them talking about the wildfires a little bit. And since then, it's been, there's been several lawsuits filed, at least in the Northern California fires, against the utility, because the utility may have actually started some of those fires.  So it's another good reason to look at your utility grids and maybe think of a different way that we could be pushing utility electricity instead of through wires across wilderness areas and things like that. We're here to talk about transportation today, mostly. So I've got Ryan Wubbins from Birdson McDonald, my favorite electrical engineer. And we're going to talk a little bit about hydrogen in transportation. And to start off, I want to show a little video on what hydrogen is all about in case you haven't seen it. I tried to show this one once in a while, and hope you get something out of it. Hydrogen, the simplest element, and also the most abundant. Hydrogen makes up roughly 75% of all mass in the universe. Hydrogen also powers most of the stars in our universe, so it's only fitting that it has come to be recognized as a viable alternative energy source. And we need alternatives, because fossil fuels are problematic. They're messy, dirty, expensive to obtain and not secure. And they're limited. Hydrogen, on the other hand, is everywhere. Hydrogen can be produced from a wide variety of sources, including water itself, using other renewable energies. That means it's clean, really clean. As a zero emission fuel source, the only byproducts are water, heat, and electricity. Easily transported, hydrogen can be stored and distributed on a large scale as either gas or liquid. As a fuel, hydrogen itself is very light. In fact, hydrogen is 472 times more efficient by weight than lead acid batteries. And it isn't just for transportation. Hydrogen can also effectively produce and store energy for power grids. Hydrogen gas is transformed into energy within a fuel cell. As hydrogen passes through a fuel cell, electrons are released, and an electrical current is produced and captured for use. Electric vehicle motors powered by hydrogen fuel cells are twice as efficient as gas or diesel engines. They can travel farther distances than lithium batteries, especially in heavy vehicles, and can last for decades. Hydrogen-powered fuel cells are scalable to buses and commercial fleets such as trucks, trains, ships, and aircraft. Fuel cells allow for fast, easy refueling. And hydrogen can be easily adapted to current refueling stations, making it a convenient fuel source for everyone. What is a proven, safe, clean, and efficient energy source currently in use worldwide? Hydrogen is everywhere, including our clean energy future. I really like that video, and we try and show it often because it really kind of captures the whole essence of hydrogen and what it can do for us, in transportation and in a grid. And we'd like to use it as part of our outreach and education. We're going to focus a little bit, though, more on transportation. Now, Ryan Wubbins, our guest today, he works a microgrid project for us with the Air Force out at Hickam. It's one of his main projects. But he's got a pretty broad background in energy, electrical energy, and transportation. He's done a lot of studying on hydrogen and electric transportation since he's been working with us on our projects. And so, Ryan, welcome to the show. Good to have you back. Yeah. Thanks for having me. The third week of every month, we have Ryan on to be the expert and poke holes through everybody's stories. But the first thing we do with any project, whether it's a microgrid or transportation, is go for efficiencies. So some of the things that big city planners do with efficiency is they look for putting their buildings and their entire infrastructure around places that people can walk, ride bikes, ride skateboards, ride scooters, basically use that last mile transportation solution so that we don't have as many cars. And focus on getting rid of parking stalls and making a lot more pedestrian ways and things like that. So we always look at those at the big level because, number one, they're not as expensive as trying to do mass transit. But they're a good solution. They're clean. Everybody takes their own responsibility and that responsibility is spread down to the individual level and you just use your own energy to get you where you need to go. That's what we start off with. But the next level up is kind of an area that a lot of people don't understand. And that's public transportation. And I've pointed out before that in public transportation, the idea isn't to save money, not for the government anyway.  And, you know, but it's important because if you make that great community where you can walk and skateboard to where you're going to work, your housing is always kind of expensive in those areas. And so a lot of the people have to commute from out farther in the suburbs or the farm lands or whatever in some cases. And that transportation gets expensive. And that's where mass transit comes in, where you kind of express buses coming in from remote areas where people can afford to get to work. But the burden of the cost is provided by the government so that those people can actually help commerce keep going. So what are some of the costs, Ryan, with public transportation that most of us don't see? Some of the cost of, the capital cost is a big one, absolutely, right off the bat. If you're going to start taking hundreds and hundreds of people out of their vehicles and move them into something else, the cost is relatable between all of those vehicles now just being within the actual transportation device. The public side. So you already have to have that capital investment, which is huge. That in itself has to have its own return on investment as what makes the world go around. So definitely the capital cost and then maintenance just on top, just like we have on our own vehicles, the maintenance and upkeep. Part of that maintenance and upkeep would be the fuel and whatever you're using to run that. Operating costs for the engineers that maintain things and the operators who run the trains if it's trains or drive the buses if it's buses. Yep. Yeah, you have all those costs as well. So and the transportation costs can be pretty significant.  But I've watched the cost estimates go from $3 billion, which is a lot of money. This morning on the news, it's over $9 billion now. And it's not even going the full distance that we wanted to, that we planned for in the initial part. So it is very expensive, especially that initial investment in infrastructure. So but it's necessary. We have to take care of people that can't afford to live in the urban core and come from the suburbs and out in the outer reaches of the island to get to work. Yeah, absolutely. The nice thing about something like the rail to what you talked about earlier is it's it is a highly efficient use of space. It's it's very efficient in its own, you could say, fuel transportation. That one being electrically driven, right? Right. Consuming. So it's very efficient from those standpoints. So in the long term, a system like that is great. Well, it is expensive to run over time. You do reach those those really low marginal costs to keep it right. So if we had a diesel train computer, electric train, electric train would be much more efficient in terms of using energy, correct? Is that correct statement? Yeah, it can be absolutely converting electrical power to mechanical power is it is a pretty efficient use of of energy. Diesel in that sense is very volatile, as we can see in the global market. So that's price wise, price wise. So it makes it very tough to prove some of those long term figures. Without knowing the long term use of and that's an important point to most of the business folks that I've talked to, including some of the tour bus companies, there they would love to have a firm fixed price fuel contract for like 10 years or 15 years. If they could have that, they could predict so much better. They could plan so much better. They could make capital investments so much better if they could predict the stable fuel costs. So, you know, that's one of the things that we talk about hydrogen. If we can get it to scale and get that stable cost down and projected out where we can provide contracts for hydrogen for energy for a rail project or buses that we can actually start to stabilize those costs for private sector and let them capitalize off it as well as the government sector where they're running public transportation. So we were talking a little bit about batteries and versus hydrogen for electric vehicles and the video showed how hydrogen fuel cell makes electricity. But when it comes to costs and stuff, a lot of people don't really think about the full life cycle cost of batteries versus hydrogen. But you've done a lot of homework on that. What are some of the factors that maybe people aren't thinking about? So some of the life cycle costs that you've got to be aware of is that when you're exercising and going through the cycles of a battery, the way you are adjusting the chemical makeup that's within there is in a way deteriorating the performance of that battery. While all equipment is in a way deteriorating, our vehicles start to wear down over time. Anyways, the batteries are something that I would consider in an engineering world they're a little bit shorter. I mean, we're talking if even if we want to say 10, 15, 20 years there are very few design standards that I designed to that are of that length. The only time I do is for batteries and we're getting ready to switch them out. When you start talking about hydrogen, the material and the makeup that you're dealing with, we can start talking more on the side of 50 plus years. That is a design standard more from a utility scale or a public service. That's what we're designing to. I mean, the rail is not going to go away in 10 years. And that's designed likely well past the 50 year mark. So the cost of ownership just by the lifetime of what you're getting is probably one of the biggest ones. The constant cost of ownership, if we want to just compare the two, there's a there's a capital cost that's a little bit harder to speak to. But the energy storage one is really neat. The best battery manufacturer in the United States is really good. And they're trying to get to somewhere around a hundred dollars per kilowatt hour. That from a car standpoint gets them on the on the price point of an internal combustion engine performance, which is great for them. When we talk energy storage for things like an electrical grid or for some greater use, and we look at a cost per kilowatt hour of storage for hydrogen, it's somewhere like ten dollars. Or it could probably even get cut in half when you start scaling and providing engineering effort on on that type of technology. You look at a battery that's been there really squeezing out what they can by by massive production at 100, that's 10 times more than that of hydrogen. So you're talking about a tenfold increase in price to store energy in a battery long term compared to storing it in a hydrogen system. Yeah, absolutely. Ten times. And that's that's just the storage piece. We can't say that hydrogen is ten times cheaper. That's not what I'm trying to say. But but yeah, from a storage perspective, what you how you have to store the energy, how you have to store, which is why you see something like a bus or a semi leaning more towards hydrogen for many reasons, but one being that really high energy density, that storage that you want to have. OK, we're going to take a quick break and we'll come back and talk to Ryan about that energy storage piece, especially in big vehicles. Aloha, my name is Mark Shklav. I am the host of Think Tech Hawaii's Law Across the Sea. Law Across the Sea is on Think Tech Hawaii every other Monday at 11 a.m. Please join me where my guests talk about law topics and ideas and music in Hawaii, Anna, all across the sea from Hawaii and back again. Aloha. Aloha, I'm Wendy Lo and I'm coming to you every other Tuesday at two o'clock live from Think Tech Hawaii. And on our show, we talk about taking your health back. And what does that mean? It means mind, body and soul. Anything you can do that makes your body healthier and happier is what we're going to be talking about, whether it's spiritual health, mental health, fascia health, beautiful smile health, whatever it means. Let's take healthy back. Aloha. Hey, welcome back to Stand the Energy Man, again, on my lunch hour here at Think Tech Hawaii. And we got Ryan Wubbins from Burns and McDonald Electrical Engineering that's kind of getting into the finer technical points of transportation and energy, energy storage in transportation. We finished off the last thing about pointing out that when it comes to just the storage piece, like how you store the energy in a vehicle, that your best, best batteries on the market today, your lithium cobalt batteries that are used in your best electric cars are 10 times more expensive than similar technology to store the same kind of energy in batteries, I mean in hydrogen, because hydrogen, when you when you look at how it's stored, it's stored in the cylinders that don't have a whole lot of components in there that degrade, the cylinders last, they're designed to last, you know, decades, not just years. And they're fairly reasonably cost, priced out. So you can make hydrogen storage fairly cheaply and it lasts a long time. Whereas if you have to replace batteries, you've got a couple problems. Number one is the cost of the batteries. But also at the end of the life of the battery, you've got hazmat issues. You don't want to put them in landfills. You've got all kinds of chemicals in there you don't want in landfills. They tell you right when you buy lithium batteries right now for any of your small devices, don't just don't throw them in a fire and don't dispose them in a landfill. But you know, that's where a lot of them go and it's not good. If that stuff leaches into the water system, now you've got problems in your water system as well. So, Brian, what are some of the other things to consider? You know, as we go into the transportation mode and we just we talked about starting with the last mile and doing mode shifting and we talked about public transportation. Let's talk a little bit about moving energy.  But in that footprint of maybe 10 or 12,000 square feet, it's the same as you're having your oil field, your oil pipeline, your oil tanker, your oil refinery. And then the gas truck that drives the gasoline to your station from the oil refinery all in a 20 foot container or two behind the wall. In other words, you lose that entire transportation cost of your product.  It doesn't make your product better or worse. It just gets it to where the market is, but it adds no value. Well, think of how much money is spent by an oil company to pull the oil out of the ground, push it through a pipeline, put it in a tanker, take the tanker and move it. Hopefully you don't spill any along the way. Get it to a refinery. Use the energy to refine that that oil into a more refined fuel that you can use and then take that fuel and put in a truck and take it to your gas station to put in your car. All those transportation pieces are added to the process. And with hydrogen, you can basically make it right on site. Yeah, comparing the two is very interesting. We've spoken earlier. I don't know how many shows ago it was about the return on energy investments you get from going out and grabbing oil. It used to be really easy. You just stick a straw on the ground and it's just like oil popped up if you're in the right spot. That return was something in the fold. I think it was a hundred to one or something like that, which was great when it was really easy to get. And we were selling at a still relatively high price point for oil. That from a financial standpoint makes a lot of sense. Even from an energy standpoint, we're spending less. But over time, it's getting harder to go after and find those resources. The time you spend on all the places you miss, you've got to add all that up from an energy. It cost something to drill a hole, even a stride. Yep. And when you add all of that up, that a hundred to one is decreasing over time. That's probably not going to surprise anybody unless we found a big bucket of free oil just sitting somewhere we could tap off of. Hydrogen, when you compare that, we could set up that number today. And now I'm going to look it up now because I don't know what it is. But to produce hydrogen on site from water, water being a really known source that we can get locally, almost anywhere that we actually are residing anyways. And the return on that energy investment can be for what? Just simply from solar to hydrogen. And we can find that number and that's set. That number will actually get better over time as engineering efficiencies come from the electrolyzers, the fuel cells, the solar, the electrical components in between. So while the return on energy investment for something like hydrogen will go up, the return on energy investment for something like oil and diesel will go down. Down, right. So a lot of times when I explain to people what a fuel cell does, I tell them it's a self-charging battery. So you put hydrogen and air in and it creates an electrical current rather than having to just store the energy inside the battery where you have metal plates and electrolyte, things like that. You're basically using the fuel cell. In fact, I'll tell people there's dry cells, there's wet cells, and there's fuel cells. I mean, it's just another kind of battery. So what we're doing is we're taking chemical energy and pushing it into this fuel cell and letting it generate some electricity on board a vehicle. And that makes it really efficient, especially when you get to big vehicles. So we talked a little bit before we came on the air Nicola Motors, the folks doing the big trucks. And what impresses you the most about that guy's concept of what he's trying to do in that large class 8 truck line that makes sense with hydrogen? Yeah, what's interesting about them and what's interesting about the car manufacturer, Tesla, I'll kind of lump them into the same idea is that they're both, they're producing their own vehicles. They are producing a new vehicle to go after an existing market segment of a combustion-driven engine. So when they produce more, every one of their investment dollars now is going towards something that's renewable. If a traditional car manufacturer, I think we said today the Volkswagen decided to invest something like $50 billion in the next five years on electric-driven vehicles, all of those dollars spent are actually eating away on their current revenues that they're getting because they're gonna take some of their combustion engine and replace those sales with electric. So that is a tough decision for a company like that to make. When a company that large makes it, that means a lot to the renewable energy transportation world. What you can see and the reason those companies are doing is the success that these other car manufacturers are having and the impact they're having on the market. So when I look at the hydrogen-based trucking, that is incredible that the decision is being made while they do offer both. They're putting, that I know of, they're putting primary focus on hydrogen, is that correct? So they're doing the calculations. They have the most invested technology, like from a company standpoint, that's their baby right there. They gotta take care of that. And if they're making this, the play on hydrogen, when that scales, look out for the cost of hydrogen just to change across the world because the transportation industry is very heavy on shipping. So once the shipping side makes a decision, everybody else is going to, there will be market pressures for everyone else to follow. There will always be competing technologies between batteries and hydrogen because there is different applications when one is better than the other. But when one has such a bigger market presence, that will have an effect. Just the renewable transportation energy market as a whole. So those of you that aren't familiar with Nicola Motors, you should go check them out online. But they basically have a Class 8 18-wheeler tractor trailer with a sleeper cab in. They have one without a sleeper cab, but it's a really sharp design vehicle with all the bells and whistles you see on a high-end car. Lane departure warnings, automatic braking, regenerative braking like you see on all electric vehicles that helps generate power back into batteries. And even hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have batteries in them. But the bottom line is they can get this vehicle to go over 1,000 miles or advertising 1,000 to 1,200 miles of range on one fill up of hydrogen in their tanks, which you're saying is going to be 100 kilograms. They're going to carry 100 kilograms of hydrogen and be able to go virtually halfway across the U.S. So they know they can put a few stations out there or localize some stations, get a market going that transports goods and exactly kick off that economic boost that you were talking about. The interesting thing though is the companies that are really leaning forward on this, including Toyota, have started to realize that they have a role to play in the infrastructure side as well because they're bringing the chicken and the egg or at least parts of the egg to go with the chicken because if they don't, things won't get started. And so Nicola Motors is doing the same thing, they're bringing stations. But the interesting thing is on electric transportation, the more electric vehicles you have that are battery reliant, the higher the infrastructure costs go. The more vehicles you have that are hydrogen reliant, the smaller your infrastructure costs are because you get economies of scale by producing large volumes of hydrogen and a plant, distributing it via pipelines or things that you don't have to have rolling stock on and get it out there for the vehicles to use or create it right on site with electrolysis. And so you can get those economies of scale. Yeah, transporting energy is an interesting market because unless it's stored, it has to happen instantly. Transmission lines are always, and they are very efficient from the extremely high 90s at transferring energy, but it has to happen instantly.  If you're gonna go transport batteries, you're expending that energy while you're moving it. To move batteries. To move batteries. And so you're gonna get somewhere it could be de-energized at that time. So that's when you're talking about the infrastructure costs being higher because on the other side of the model, you're gonna say, oh, well, let me put the battery in the end location in the transmission line. And now I have a very high-efficient use. Well, that costs a lot of money. If I could just truck a tank over there, well, that might be a much cheaper, a much quicker ROI than the other one. So yeah, there's an infrastructure difference because all relating back to the cost per kilowatt hour stored. And that cost keeps dropping for hydrogen. The better technology gets, the better the systems get. And batteries will improve when I think nanotechnology finally gets real. The scientific sector gets that, but so will fuel cells. Everything that helps a battery is gonna help a fuel cell get cheaper and better and more efficient. Yeah, absolutely, very related technologies. Well, that's gonna wrap it up for Staten Energy Man this week. And thanks to Ryan Wubbins again for being out here. Thanks to Susan for coming in the studio to make sure I didn't say anything rude. And to Robert and Cindy here in the studio for making all the magic happen. And hope you join us next week, Friday, on Staten Energy Man. Aloha.