Good day fellow investors, Amira's 20F annual report finally came out and I've got so many questions, requests to comment what's my opinion so it is again proper to make a video on this even if I think we closed the Amira case last November but nevertheless as still things are discussed let me close this once forever. So before we start discussing Amira let me first discuss the risks of investing according to videos and how that goes and what can you follow and what you can't follow. I was also discussed on a German show so it's also good to address all of that. Let's start with the discussion about risk of investing and then discussing the German show and then discussing the investment lessons that are there from Amira. Amazing lessons for long-term investor. So let's start with the story. I was bullish on Amfi in 2017. My idea was that higher rise prices will lead to higher revenues and finally to more cash. Cash cash cash cash is the key word here on Amfi's balance sheet and perhaps a dividend that would potentially push the stock to above 20, 30 like it was the case with KRBL. That didn't happen and on the 30th of November I immediately published this video. The stock was still significantly above 4, 5 I think so 7.39 my time pm that's 1.39 pm eastern time November 30th when Amfi Amira published their previous financials. On that day the stock dropped from above 6 to 4, 4 something 4.30 I think was the low. I sold everything I had in Amfi immediately. As soon as the market opened I was the first seller. I even driven the price significantly down but I didn't like what I saw and this is what I said. Good day fellow investors. I think everybody will be expecting my take on Amira's earnings. Now this is a really great example of how I approach investments. You find something, you expect something. If it fits your expectations you make a lot of money. If it doesn't meet your expectations you don't lose a lot. The first time I recommended Amira on this channel was at 4.75. When I really thought okay at this price Amira there is little room for losses and there is a potential for a huge gain if the increase in basmati prices reflects onto the financials. That unfortunately in this first six months didn't happen. Is this possible that due to the seasonality of the business Amira's earnings improve significantly in the next six months? However we will know that first time somewhere in May when the company announces their full year results and then really see it in the audited report coming out at the end of July. So that is six months from now or eight months till the audited report in between there perhaps will be some financing but don't expect much. There is little probability of catalysts coming up in the next eight months which could make Amira a value trap. So let's first dig into the earnings and then I'll discuss my view on what's going on. Revenue increased eight percent but I expected much much more. The eight percent will just be from rise increases which means they didn't sell much more. The margin is always the healthy margin of 14.7 which is okay. Profit after tax in line with previous earnings which means that really wasn't an improvement even if we'll see later in the balance sheet there should have been. I really expected higher revenue at least 20-25% from the sales then I expected higher cash. This was really my catalyst much more cash on the balance sheet coming from profitable revenues profitable sales. That again didn't happen. If we look at the revenue it did increase from 210 to 228 million. What increased significantly and what I expected to increase was the change in inventory of finished goods. So the value of the inventory due to the seasoning to the aging of the petty increased from 12 million the benefit to 36 million of course in relation to higher prices. However this means that if there wouldn't be the change in inventory benefit there wouldn't be profitability for Amira. So you really have to see from different perspectives those basic earnings per share of 9 million or 30 cents 29 cents. This is my biggest worry and something I really don't like it could really be due to demonetization in India but nevertheless in the previous quarter past due trade receivables were 43 million now those 43 million are still there okay six months has passed which means there have been some payments from the past due receivables but now the past view for more than three months and less than six months are 45 million which means that the company like Amira that really depends on the trade receivables has 78 million past view 78 million is two dollars per share almost which would completely change how Amira looks. This is a catalyst to look at in the next earnings if Amira manages to get the fate in time the debt would be much lower the debt cost would be much lower profitability would be much higher alongside the debt financing. So I really don't like the earnings I hoped it would be better and that would that better that growth has been my catalyst for holding Amira. Such catalyst didn't happen I will be researching other stocks I will be looking at other stocks I will be keeping an eye on Amira to see what happens if the stock price goes significantly down creating another bargain I will look to open another position looking into July 2018 however there is still plenty of time from there the risks have increased because of the past due trade receivables which could really put in jail party the whole company possibly because the inventories guarantee Amira's debt and if though Amira loses those inventories to guarantee its debt it cannot sell it cannot make sales and a very very tricky situation can arise so from my perspective even if it looks like financials have improved everything has grown a little bit from my perspective the company is much much more riskier now so it didn't work out let's say we'll keep an eye we'll keep a joint and that's the story that's how investing goes I hope you are not disappointed well I think a lot of you will be disappointed but that's how investing is thank you for watching I hope to see you in the next video and I'm looking forward to your comments it's a great learning opportunity so we'll see how it works out and that's it so I clearly said the catalyst didn't materialize and there was no cash further no catalyst ahead which could make Amfi a value trap also I expected cash that didn't happen I also discussed how the change in inventory value is the only driver of profitability for Amira something that again increases the risks and I think I said it clearly how the risks have increased how I sold etc but then almost a year later I get to this this is a German show I don't understand German so I cannot really follow and Chuldigung but they did this report on how I trick people into crazy stocks and this is the portfolio of the Reinhardt that unfortunately bought these stocks at completely the wrong time the first time I discussed Amira it was at 4.74 when I sold everything it was at 4.8 even 5.5 something 5.75.3 I think the first time I discussed UPi it was at 12 then I said I sold at 15 the first part and sold at 24 all of it Lukara I never said I bought it and Orioles and Koppel are still good stocks since we discussed them so I discussed more than 100 stocks on this channel I share my analysis and people think that even if I'm in good mood that that's a signal to buy please I agree with the Germans here with the mission money comment that you should never invest based on youtube videos and that's one reason I started a stock market research platform where where I really show my portfolio my analysis my risk reward analysis my long-term investments what do I how do I build the portfolio and I have just started to build a portfolio it will take me a year until I build it so until that the price of the platform is just $249 where you get all my research so you get me working for you for full time doing the research that you can't do because you don't have the time or the knowledge so please before thinking about investing in anything that I discuss on youtube check what I do on my stock market research platform where there is my model portfolio and you can see where my money goes and what is the portfolio exposure which is key to understanding also the risk reward of companies like Amira because those are always interesting companies but you have to understand the risk reward and to be more sure about the risk reward this is what I wrote on my stock market research platform so I clearly said about the investment strategy there are ways to play this the first way is to simply avoid as the management's integrity is questionable which is the best thing to do for the risk averse investor avoid 99% of people should okay avoid risk averse hasta la vista the second way to play this is to wait for the market to really panic and push the price down and then hope for the management to save the situation be to good report or an investor presentation the report didn't come delayed filling the problems with audits which means okay more more trouble ahead the third way to play it if you really want to risk it but you have to understand you could lose 100% of your investment because always keep in mind that it could get delisted and you could lose 100% of your investment so that's the risk reward so please understand the risk reward and this is why I didn't buy amphi for the model portfolio as as soon as I looked at it rationally I said no way after November 2017 and then there was no cash so please check my research platform check my analysis and use those analysis as a tool to help you on the risk reward and what can happen I have a column I have about describing the risks of what can happen to a stock price and there are some stocks that I own that have a risk assessment of 100% and that's extremely important to understand for portfolio positioning etc so as the German said in the video as the German guys said in the video never ever invest on a youtube video please carefully assess the risk and reward my job is to analyze companies I analyze lots of companies so I document that on youtube now that we understand the risk reward let's look at Amira's current report amphi didn't file a report because the auditor didn't want to sign it so they need to check a lot of things first thing when you open the report the number of shares now is 46.3 million when I was looking at when I started researching Amira it was 27 million so huge dilution there which is okay something unfortunate however the big big impact here is the change in inventory of finished goods of 106 million which is huge on the company's assets so the total impairment of the inventory was 133 million so 134 million so one-time provision for impairment of inventory so their explanation will get to it later let's see other things as I went through the report so they of course the main risk is always the indebtedness that increased even in that time then something changed in the revenue where they used to book as revenue now they booked something as commission so 93 million in revenue less from an accounting difference and they had that 93 million in revenue increased other income from 0 to 5 million okay what's that's five six percent margin on a commission job okay it shouldn't be recognized that revenue but okay you can get across that as it was profit other income increased five million now the big thing and this is really huge cost of materials including change in inventory of finished goods and here they say notably the group recognized provision for impairment of inventory being one-time expense for the amount of 134 million in fiscal 2018 we carry inventories for regular period of time at times upon careful consideration the inventories are written off in their natural qualitative deterioration however this year we identified certain deterioration in quality of inventories primarily due to large number of warehousing facilities spread across India the mismatch in cash-to-cash cycle and sporadic unfavorable weather conditions the management believes these are one-time events driven largely by macroeconomic conditions and also by uncontrollable external factors this deteriorate deterioration in quality of inventory results into higher percentage of broken rice content upon processing the management has decided consciously and conservatively to recognize the provision for impairment of inventories of 134 million considering the adjustment in its realizable value when I read this this is pure bullshit I'm happy I sold when the higher inventory and basmati didn't turn into cash because it was fishy and strange that it didn't with basmati prices going up 50 percent now we know exactly why they why that didn't turn into cash this is the reason they didn't have the inventory they had broken rice across India so that's where the company blows up so amphi in the past was piling up profits in non-existing inventory over the years and here is where the trouble begins for amphi the inventory was the collateral for the loans from indian banks without that now that the banks know that the debt will be problematic going forward janana covers for the debt he's guaranteeing with the shares with the stocks with everything amira owns so as amira doesn't have the cash to repay the debt the banks probably will not refinance the debt and astalavista amira very negative cash flows always focus on the cash cash I hope that the catalyst would be the cash in 2017 that didn't come and I said astalavista in november as you heard in the video so the debt is there while the inventory declined I think that the banks will not renew this is where the company blows up inventories are down trade receivable so the customers are not paying 258 million from 209 to 199 so really really a cash crunching situation to amira and the trade receivables are also very questionable why are they not giving getting the money we have seen inventory I don't know if I should call it fraud or not but 130 million inventory you don't lose it overnight and now trade receivables are they there that's a good question that we'll see later and that was also risks that I mentioned extremely important in the video last november so inventory down receivable up depth to cover the bad trades it's not so what to take out from this first is agree with the Germans never invest on youtube video secondly cash is king thirdly low debt is king because that debt that really makes company blow up and makes the management do crazy things so it all boils down to a very very risky situation for amira and as I said in the previous video in november that the risks have increased while the rewards have gotten lower and that's why I sold everything back then as the catalyst didn't work and this actually might be a value trap it will be very interesting to see how this evolves how will shareholders be protected how will the land be sold at what price at what what will the banks get etc etc unfortunately the story is like this I'm happy that I sold back in November I'm sorry that I think it was very clear that I sold as the catalyst didn't materialize I'm sorry for all of those that lost money while holding the bag but that's something that you have to really understand when investing it's about risk reward and selling when something that doesn't happen that's crucial to sell when something doesn't happen and seek for other stocks as I said in the previous video so this is where I will close with Amira it all boils down to cash debt and watching carefully what's going on and acting on it never fall in love with the stock no matter what's the potential because then you're betting and not investing so also I remind you if you want to invest on anything that I do please check my stock market research platform with carefully detailed risk reward analysis and portfolio exposures which are the key to show you okay if we risk something how much do we risk and you will be surprised by seeing my portfolio and especially the cash allocation at this point in the market thank you for watching looking forward to your comments and I'll see you in the next video


The leadership in my community has always fought very hard for the mission because it never came super easy to us. And so the other things like gender or race, you couldn't afford for that to take a center stage because it was just tough enough to get the mission done and you just needed quality officers and it didn't matter who that officer was or what they looked like or what they believed in. You just wanted someone that you knew could get the job done.


What's going on guys? Welcome to Facebook Ads Friday week 24. We've almost been doing this for half a year. This is your first week tuning in that basically every single Friday I show you two proven trial and tested winning drop shipping products. How do I know they're proven and winning products? There's a number of reasons. So let's jump straight into product number one. Before we take a look at the copy itself then and show you the product, let's take a look at the actual engagements and the numbers behind this particular post. So we can see it started on August 31st of 2022 and since then so in a period of about seven eight months, it's got 11,000 reactions, 2,500 comments and 9.3 million views. It's pretty safe to say a post doesn't get that level of viewership unless somebody has spent a significant amount of money to reach that amount of people and to spend that sort of money you'd be silly to do that unless you were seeing a return. However, if you've watched one of these weeks before you'll know that engagements isn't everything. The reason being is because you can run engagement campaigns to East Asian countries and you can build up engagements and views on your ads pretty quickly for less than a tenth of a penny. What you can't do though is build up comments from real life people who have bought your product, happy with your product and come back to the post to let you know their experience. So this is where we take a look at the comments section. Just bear in mind we're taking a look at the most relevant comments at the moment. These will be the ones which typically get the most engagements. I will be showing you the newest comments in a second so we can see that this is still current, still active and still working. So the first comment is from Joel. Just purchased for my wife for Christmas. There's one person who's bought this product. Christie says she wishes the mirror was magnified because her old eyes need the magnification. So that would indicate that she's bought this product. Lucinda says it was a while but not real fast. I'm assuming she's talking about the delivery times but she loves it. So there's three people who've bought this product. Diane says she loves hers. There's four people that've ordered this product. Celine says she did get one of these so she doesn't typically buy from Facebook ads but because this product was too good to pass up she decided to go for it and she absolutely loves it. Gemma says she's just ordered this. Callie says her husband ordered her one. Kimberley says she's got one. Reine says that she's got one. Sally says that she's waiting for her order so she ordered one however these guys obviously aren't doing a great job with their fulfillment. Tammy says she received her order so it's pretty safe to say that people are buying this product and therefore in my eyes at least I would consider it a proven one and that it's working. Something that has started to crop up though if you've noticed that I've been scrolling through there's been a couple of people saying that they wished that the mirror was magnified. So Kathy here says wish the mirror was a high magnification. Lisa says this would be a slam dunk if the mirror was magnified. Marilyn says she's ordered one. Debbie says she's ordered one. So basically people are loving this product however there is a development opportunity. If this is the sort of niche that speaks to you and you want to get involved in this then what I would do is look at working with a supplier to manufacture this product for you but also include or build in or adapt the product somehow to include a magnification. So that being said let's take a look at exactly what products they're all talking about and the first thing I want to point out is it's quite a short and simple ad creative. It's less than 30 seconds long. There's nobody talking in it. I don't believe she even shows her face full on. I think there's a side preview there. It's probably filmed on an iPhone super quick super cheap super easy to create but at the end of the day it clearly benefits exactly what the product is and what it can do for someone and that is the key to an effective ad campaign. So all in all a great product. People are definitely loving this. If it can be successful on Facebook I definitely think there's a market for it on TikTok and Instagram which typically carry a younger average user age. Let's jump on to the Shopify store selling this thing then. First thing you'll probably notice is the layout is a bit wacky. So what I'm going to do is show you a little bit of like a hack I suppose is if you right click and go to inspect and then at the top here if you can see this icon I'll zoom on it. Zoom in on it for you. Then what you can do basically is just display any website that you're currently looking at in a mobile format and this is obviously where these guys have optimized their website to do is to focus on those mobile users. If I was being super harsh I would say that this looks like quite an amateurish Shopify store. The images here all mismatch different sizes. They look like stock images from AliExpress they probably are based on the Asian model they're using the product. It definitely could be improved but just goes to show they have such a cool and unique product that carries that wow factor that people want so badly. They're willing to look past some of these kind of corners perhaps you could say that these guys have skipped. It's not a cheap product either. Retailing at 80 pounds which should mean great profit margins which means perfect for scaling which is probably why they've been able to achieve such great results. The other thing they also have as well is two different options of splitting the payments. Once you start selling a product upwards of over 50 pounds especially the younger generation I've noticed myself they love to use these 0% split payment options. ATC button there is no dynamic checkout button with a PayPal option and then straight into get free brushes so it's kind of like an incentive to encourage somebody to make a purchase because it's not only do they get the products that they want they also get some free brushes of use to them as well. Moving down then into the bulk of the product description what's really weird is they have a quantity selected down here which is super strange and they have this limited time after I get free makeup brushes so they're really pushing that kind of bonus free gift that the consumer gets and then moving downwards I mean as you can see there's not really a lot of information about this product there's a simple three line paragraph a gift just kind of reiterating what was in the ad creative but it's pretty clear it's pretty obvious what the product is and what it does then some random tag line of colorful wonderful beautiful and then kind of like a what's in the box type image so the consumer can see exactly what they're getting. Further below this they have some icons responsibly sourced brand eco-friendly satisfaction guaranteed I'll leave it up to you guys whether you think these are legit or these are truthful I'll also leave it up to you guys because I haven't checked whether you think this has been featured in Vogue or not and then to wrap the product page up to finish it off they obviously have the typical review app that you see and these all look fairly decent as well so you've got David, Nancy, Donna Anita, Melissa and they're all quite extensive reviews as well where a lot of drop shippers especially beginners I see full short is what they'll do is they'll import their reviews from whatever platform it is and they won't prove read them so if there's broken English or signs of kind of foreign reviews that can be quite off put in if you're advertising in say the UK in my video last week where I was reviewing Shopify stores one of the reviews was I'm pretty which had no relevance at all to the product and any potential consumer coming on to the store seeing reviews like that obviously it doesn't look very legit it's going to be off put in and ultimately it's going to lead to the person leaving your store and not making a purchase if we jump on to Alex Bressin just to show you this product in fact we jump back just to remind ourselves of what the retail price is so 80 pounds this is one supplier that I found there's a couple of guys selling this product so I don't think you have any treble sourcing at your sales they also have some video content as well which may be able to chop up and use to your advantage but basically you're looking at 30 pounds all in delivered to your customer and you get three different colors as well if you're going to move forward with this product I would definitely talk to a supplier that could get rid of this logo so that says nice land get rid of that logo and get yours put on there instead that will separate you from all of the competition you'll come across and look like the original seller the original developer which will be a super beneficial and positive outcome for your business so all in all a great first business which we've just taken a look at so 30 pounds all in there selling it for 80 that leaves 50 pounds room for their profit margin to require their customers typically I like to work on the kind of 20 pound basis so even if they're paying towards the top end they're still looking at 30 pounds per sale in I was going to say bottom line profit obviously you've got your subscriptions and taxes and things like that to take out of it but nonetheless a very healthy profit margin moving on to product number two I actually found this one using drop spy which is one of my favorite product research tools if you guys want a specific video tutorial on this all you got to do is let me know in the comment section below so this particular one the post was created on February 17th of 23 that was this year and it's last seen on April 3rd which is the day I record this video so in the space of it's only six weeks old is what I'm trying to say what's good about this post also is we can see there's a slow and steady increase in likes and shares which shows it's been continuously active and it's also most predominant in Canada and Australia too which is perfect because it's going out to those higher quality traffic areas so what products am I talking about then let's go through and take a look at the ad creative first I'll talk you through it basically so in fact just to point that out because that is super important whenever you see any of these tablet type products or these products advertised towards children they are trying to capture the attention of grandparents grandparents typically don't like to see children especially of such a young age on a phone or on a tablet or watching tv because they didn't have those things when they were younger they want to see them playing board games or doing something more useful or more creative not just like mindlessly watching videos like a zombie so if you didn't notice that at the beginning it's a baby or a young toddler watching something on a phone and instead they're giving them this so this is wrong and if you also think it's wrong then this is the products that you should get them so there's the problem and this is the solution basically it's a tablet but it's a drawing pad it allows them to create things draw things in different colors it doesn't smudge as I've just shown there it's also waterproof which is a must have of course if you have a toddler and then another cool feature about it as well if it shows it in a second let me see if I can find it so if you miss that is when you push that button at the bottom then basically what it does is a resets it and makes it blank so there's no endless buying of coloring pads or buying of paper or pens it's a reusable coloring pad essentially which I think is a pretty cool thing to have so that being said then is it a proven winning product it's a cool product obviously um has 2000 reactions 300 comments and 400 shares it's only been active for the last six weeks so unless there's been prior sellers of this I think it's safe to say it's a relatively new product let's take a quick look at the comment section then see what people have been saying so I just use these as communication board due to my speech disabilities they are awesome so that potentially could be an angle for these um Geneva says she's just ordered one Jenny says the best value if you have two kids around the same age also as a backup and take one on a road trip there's another person who's bought these paisley says these creative magic lcd drawing tablets are easy for kids to use in a race um I had my three-year-old cousin try this out also easy enough for him to use which is good Megan says her youngest one has one and loves it carolines tagged her friend by looks of it and says this is the one that she's ordered beena has said she's just ordered it for the kids martine has posted a picture of her child with it which indicates that she's bought one for her child jane says she's just bought one for her grandchildren so as we can see it's only been active for six weeks or so it's gathering a pretty decent amount traction and it already has a significant amount of comments from people who have bought this product so there's no doubt that there's a market for this let's jump on to their Shopify store then if you've been in the dropship in space for longer than five minutes you've probably already said they beautify this is the they beautify theme this is the typical default theme and temp out template and layout again if I dare say it looks quite amateurish there's definitely a lot that could be added to this store to help with the professionalism of it and the trustworthiness of it but it goes without saying if they're running this ad and getting those sorts of comments people are obviously trusting it enough in order to purchase the product so they're selling the products for 22 dollars they're currently running a 50 off sale as we move down into the product description I don't like this to be honest so they've got a title at the top which is fine they've got a gift which looks a bit too small for me and then they've just got paragraphs and paragraphs and paragraphs of text yes they've got the key points in like a brownie color orangey color and then like a greeny color but still to me it doesn't need to be this long it can be two three lines followed by another image or a gift followed by two or three lines followed by another image or a gift but that being said the reason why they're still able to be successful is because all of the potential questions a consumer would ask about this product so how is it powered how does it work is it waterproof all of those things are answered in the ad creative and therefore when they come on to this Shopify store all they need to see is how expensive it is it's 22 dollars yes I pay 22 dollars for that and therefore I'm just going to go ahead and buy it something else which they also do like the previous store is they have some great reviews so these all look like legit reviews this is a picture actually taken from that facebook comment that we saw we've got the real names on there they're not blanked out there's no like Korean flags on there or anything like that or French flags to say that that's being sold abroad or foreign reviews they're quite extensive they make sense these are the types of reviews that you want on your Shopify store make sure it's a case of quality instead of quantity because you could have a thousand reviews on your Shopify store but if they all look a bit dodgy and a broken English they're only going to do more harm than good so they're selling these products for 22 dollars delivered I'm going to just check with shipping I'm not going to go that fast 22 dollars give or take a founder supplier top brand been in business since 2021 it's called all starry global store and they sell a few different variations of this so if it was me you can get just the kind of like black option where the text and the drawings come out in green but then you also get the colored option so you could attract consumers on for a super cheap opening price but then upsell them to a slightly more expensive and superior products before the superior products you're looking at 250 plus a pound delivery so 350 delivered which is what five dollars they're selling it for 22 dollars so you're looking at about 15 dollars ish for your profit margins so all in all another great simple business that'll be easy to replicate so if you're watching this video and you're still looking for a product to get your business off the ground hopefully you'll agree that there's two great options in this video and I hope I've been able to motivate you to take some action and get started with this business you've honestly got nothing to lose half the battle is just getting started the amount of people that I talk to that say they want to do it but for one reason or another never ever try it's such a shame so if you need any help getting started just post your comments questions down below I read every single one so I will see it and I will get back to you if you want some free training to help you get your business launched in the next three weeks check out the top link in the description below don't forget to comment like and subscribe and I'll see you in the next video on Monday cheers