Wythech chi'n gwaith enghraer ers ymlaesu newyddu yn sessu wych? That is of the largest user of commercial energy in the world. It's the second largest importer of oil, it is growing importer of gas. The world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases from energy. It's the major player on the international coal markets.  Yn ymgyrch yn y cyfnodol, mae'n meddwl y cyfnodol y cyfnodol yn y cyfnodol a'r cyfnodol yn y cyfnodol. Yn y cyfnodol, mae'n gweithio, mae'r ddweud o'r cyfnodol o'r nexen o'r cyfrifiad o'r Cyfnodol Llywodraeth Cymru yn y cyfnodol yma, yn y Cyfnodol. Yn y cyfnodol, mae'n gwybod i hyn, dyma. Yn y cyfnodol, mae'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio o'r ffordd gwneud felly yn y cyfrifiad oherwydd o'r cyfrifiad yng Nghymru, yna'r gweithio allan a roeddan i'r cyfrifiad cyfrifiad yma. Felly, mae'n wok Trevor o rhan o'r llefudd o fyfyr landing o'r ei drwyll�ography o ddisgu o ryweddol yn rhan o'r rheth i wneud bod ymweld ymddangos yn ysbryd yn 1980 fel ymddangos. Rwy'n dduch cyflawni yn rhan o'r 10 mae'n mynd i ddweud bydd yr ysgrifennu sydd ymddangos yn eiddo i'r cyd-fyniad a'r cyflawnu a'r cyflawnu yn cyflawnu yn ysgrifennu yn yr ymddangos, ac mae'r cyd-fyniad yn gwybod yn eich bod yn ysgrifennu i'r cyflwyth ar gyfer y gaf, ac mae'r ganddoedd yn dweud â'r drefnol iawn, yr un 85% o'r llyfr yn ei wneud o'r sgwpeth Cymru yn unrhyw mwyaf i'r rhesawdd i'r bwrdd. Mae'r ganddoedd â'r drosio yn rhoi'r ganddoedd yn garaeon i'r cyffredin ar y cwm. Rwy'n dechrau am y 1 yw mae'n bwysig. Mae'r bwysig. Rwy'n credu'r cyffredin a'r 20 oed, Cynrygiad cyfrwyr yn ychydig a'r llyfr yn gwneud. Yn 70% yw'r llyfr yn gwneud o'r llyfr, our images are as primary energy supply. Oil will stay roughly 17, 18%. What has grown in this growing is natural gas, now up to 4%. Hydroelectricity stays at around 6% and that just depends on how much rain there is. At the bottom, just starting to appear is significant on nuclear and renewables. As I was explaining at lunch, you hear about the huge scale of China's wind farms or whatever. a dyna'r unigau yng Nghymru yn ymddi'r llwyddiad yn yw'r lleol. Mae'r unigau, ac mae'r unigau yn ymddi'r Llyfrgell. Ac mae'n gweithio'r oedd, yna yma yma yw 1980-2011, yn ei wneud o'r oeddiad yn y gweithio yma, ac yn y ddweudio'r oeddiad, yw'r llwyddiad yn y ddyn nhw'n dweudio'r oeddiad. Ydyn nhw'n dweudio'r llwyddiad yn 1993. Yn 1993 mae'r urchyn oedd oedd ymgrifiaid gyda'r ysgrifennu yma yw Chynau yn ein bodai'r plwer o'r oeddiad. spellu'n y 80-a, a'r 70-a, chynau eu gyfraglwydau cheim wartwaith. Ac mae'n Mae'r bwysig yn ddoch. Chine wedi'i gwneud i'r union yma i'r ysgol yma o'r oedd o'r ffordd. A'n dweud yma i'r rhai linell, ac o'r linell o'r llun o'r llun o'r rhaid. Rhaid i ddweud yma'r llun o'r llun o'r rhaid. Mae'n eu ddweud o'r reifnod o'r reifnod o'r sector. Yn ystod, mae'n ddweud o'r llun o'r reifnod o'r reifnod o'r reifnod. Ie was partially industrial policy in order to build their own refining business and employ lots of their people.but this gap is large. Some 56-57% of China's oil needs are now imported and that is going to continue growing for the foreseeable future. If we look at a natural gas we have seen that really this is... ..an natural gas production in China has only started to pick up... Really in the last 12 years. Back in the early days there were a couple of parts of China that produced gas and well I used to work for Being in China in 1990s and there was no point in producing gas in China, you wouldn't get any money for it, nobody was interested, they just wanted the gas to make the first Lancer with. This then started to change in the late 90s and as you can see they've been exploring the production, the blue line is going up very rapidly, their consumption is going up more rapidly and they are ond o'r cyfnod gwirio'n gweithio'n gwasiad yma, ac yn byw'r byw i'r gwasiad. Yn cael ei wneud ar y cael ei wneud, mae eich dweud o unrhywgwm mewn ei aeth, ac mae'n gweithio'n gwneud yr argyn, mae'r gweithio'n gweithio. Mae'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n cael ei wneud yn cael eu llwyddoedd yr oedwch yn Chynyn. in China unless there are radical steps to move away from oil to electricity or to gas. In the gas sector, the picture is more confused. The priority in natural gas for China is not electricity, it is city gas and we were talking at lunch about pollution and one of the things they have done is to get rid of the particularly North China, the district heating systems that were gyda'r bwysig o'r cael ac yn gandol i'r gandol yn bwysig a'r ddweud o'r holl yn gandol. Ond bywch gandol, o'r ddweud, ac o'r rhagorau sy'n gallu hyn yn llwy, ond ond y problemau gyda'r bwysig o'r gandol yn cael ei fod yn ddweud. Rwy'n cael ei gandol yn gandol yn chynnyddiol. Felly, ydych chi'n gallu rhagorau sy'n gandol, dwi'n ddweud o gandol yn gandol, bobl yn cael rhai, oherwydd mae'n gandol o'r rhagorau. Felly, we have looked back. Chynau can see the challenges. More and more gas imports, more and more oil imports, more and more energy demand for all sorts. So here is a slide, and well, obviously today we are focusing on the right hand column, but we still need to start on the left hand column to understand what is China's domestic energy strategy, and rather like America it is, let's maximise production of domestic resources, Wether that be oil or gas or coal or hydro or whatever, but particularly when it's oil and gas, it's oil and gas reserves. Maximised the refining capacity as we've already seen. Build the pipelines to move oil and gas around the country, have ports for importing. Build storage... A lot of oil can be imported into China is going into emergency storage for the first time. mae gennych hi'n bwysig ar gyflym ac yn ymgyrch, sent mae'r ei chyflol rydyn, mae'n bwysig ar gyflym ac yn bwysig! Mae bod gennych hi'n bwysig i'w ymgyrch yn gweld ei gweld i'w ffordd i ffwrdd, yn 3 o 4 ar gwasanaeth oherwydd y maes y cyfrifradau mae rhai cael ei gwrs wedi ei ddacol i'w cysylltu'r licwys ac yw'r llungellwyr am y gallu bwysig ar gyflym. Mae twelio rydyn ymgyrch ar gylwyr ribbon, ken Laurys-X comments of vehicles and emission standards, but these aren't always being followed. There are growing numbers of gas and electric vehicles in the cities and rather late in the day, some of the cities are working on urban mass transport systems. But, at the same time, anybody who's been to China here... right? okey? You've all been to the big cities and sat in traffic jams, yeah? Llywodraeth yma hond yn fawr, roedd y carn yn gweithio. Felly mae'n cyfan gymoedd y cyfan y carn, cyfan o'r ffordd o'u cyfrannu, pum y cyfrannu, cynnyddio'r cyfrannu ac yn cael gol y pwlad yn rhan. gyda'r iawn o'r wahanol. Mae'n fod yn ddau'r peth yn ei ddweud, ond mae'n rhoi'r iawn ar y ddweud. Y prysau o'r litr am gaseilu yn Chine yn ymwyfydd yn ei ddweud i'w'r USA. Sorry the government is starting to push up the oil price to make people pay for it and to make people think before they use it. So that's the domestic policy. The overseas policy we're going to go through a bit more slowly and I've got slides to illustrate many of these so I'll blend it and then look a little more into the detail. Diversifying imports. I'll have a graph that shows how China draws in its oil imports particularly and gas imports more like for the world. camps as it does as an economy that was once planned where the economy is driven by the government. China prefers government to government deals, long-term contractual relationships rather than reliance on stock markets. And it feels insecure over land imports depending as it does on oil coming through the South and East China Seas so it likes overland imports. I will show you one as 같은데… Yn ymddych chi'n ddweud o'r cyfliadau oedd, yr unrhyw ymddych chi'n gyffredinol, yn ddiweddol i'r bwrthach o'u cyfrifio. A'r byd ydych chi'n meddwl am ysgrifennu ar gyfer, ymddych chi'n cyfrifio ar gyfer o'r cyfrifio. Roeddwn i'r ddechrau lluniau yn y cyfrifio cyfrifio, ymddych chi'n meddwl i'r cyfrifio CMPC. Ac oeddwn i'n ddweud â'r cyfrifio, ac yn 1998 mae oedd 1.5 miliwn yn ymddiad. ...yndd yn yw'r cyfrifordd yma, mae nhw rydyn ni efallai ei wneud hwn arlaedd. On i'n erioed, rydyn ni'n 1,6 plnidol, a rydyn ni'n rydyn ni'n fewn dyfodol a ddydd yma o'r cyflawnynwyr. On i suppwysb, ondd y ddin yn llunio o'r brwystef coch o ddyddwyd yma yn arnod o'r cyfrifordd rydyn ni wedi eu gwiridol. Rydyn ni wedi amser yr oedd yn meddwl i'r holl… O'r ffordd o'r cyffredig a'r entrepreneurship yn ymddangos i'r Prifysgrifedd o'r Ffordd. A wnaethau'n gweithio yn ymddangos o'r cyffredig ar wrth criticio o'r ffordd oír hwnnw o'r gyffredig o gyffredig i'r hwnnw. Ieith ymmuno, nawr yw shefion yma, yw cyffredig o'r parw'rwymiar strategy o'r rhwynebu ar y lwybod, o Benazweil ac o'r Kazakhstan o Angola. and a whole raft of other strategies that support either deliberately or not through intent this overseas oil policy. I'm going to illustrate some of these points with pictures now. We look at the details of oil trade. We see the top line, the crude oil import and the oil product import are much flatter line here and you see at the bottom A yw'r gwerth yma, mae wneud hanes o oedden ni'n credu oes eu hunain, a mae'n cael ei gafod o'r cwmhreit ar gyfer Japan a felly mae'r cwmhreit oedden ni, mae'n pwysig o'r cwmhreit a ddim yn rhan o'r hyn oedd yn cwmhreit. Mae'n cwmhreit o'r cyfeu'r pwysig. Yn cael ei gwybod, mae'r cyfeu'r cael ei mwyfynu wedi'u gafodol, fewn byw i'r hawdd, dwi'n meddwl i'r llwy atio hyn. Lleur yar iddo o'r ddweud o gymhau maen nhw oedd yn squelraethau i'r maen nhw. Fe cofawr ar y cyhoedd, oedd yn cael ei hiveid o gyfavwyr, a'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r paen nhw o'r ddweud yn gweithio llwyr datganiadol yn cynnwys. Roedd yma. Fo'r ddweud iawn ag y ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r cych-un? Rwy'n cael ei gwelio'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r brudd llwy. ffordd yma prevention diwethaf. Rym ni'n iawn i ddim ni'n gweld y drwnghyn ganio. Y cwestiwn y 90 yn ddechrau Asia Pacific, ac yn Indonesia. yna Rhyw Myl-Aza-Ryf, mae'r ffilmfyniad lle yna y ddefnyddio'r wrth unig, ac yn Malaysia i Indonesia, mae'r cofrwyd yn gymgyrch yn ddechrau. Ymgyrch yn ydym ni'n ddim ni'n wgwlla, ac yn ymgyrch yn dda. Mae'n ddim yn dechrau Chynai i ddim ni'n ddim ni'n ddim ni'n ddim ni ddim ni. The Middle East stays at about 45-50%. Africa is the one that has grown hugely, particularly West Africa and Sudan. Eurasia is Russia and Kazakhstan, two neighbours where the oil comes into the pipeline, and the Americas, mainly Venezuela and Colombia. So, there are about 30 or 40 countries now that supply China with crude oil. If we look at the future oil demand or oil import requirements, what we see these, the world energy outlook, and probably Ed Chow shared some of these with you last week, we're at 2010 here, we've got sort of high demand or lower demand depending on how green they're going to be, and here is production, okay, so I don't know where production will be in 30 years' time, but the geology is not good and most of their fields are depleting. So China's oil production is unlikely to go up, it's most likely to go down, and so this gap between production here and future demand is just going to go bigger, at least over the next 25 years or more, unless there is some radical measure to deal with transport policy. If we look at gas imports, essentially there was no imports until 2006 when China opened its first liquefied natural gas plant in the southeast, and so they've been building more and more LNG plants and will continue to build, and the first pipeline is from Turkmenistan. And if you look at the geographical regions they get their gas from, obviously the CIS, former Soviet Union is the Turkmenistan pipeline, and then you've got Southeast Asia, Australia for natural gas, very important in Indonesia, some gas coming from Nigeria, gas from Gata in the Middle East, and a bit of gas from North America. So again, with gas they're importing from all over the world, and will continue to do so and with oil. Projecting future gas demand and future gas imports is very difficult, and I was going to show the IEA forecast but it doesn't make sense, so I'm not showing it. The problem with gas is that the supply and the demand because of the infrastructure needs are much more closely related and therefore highly dependent on policy actions by the Chinese government. So there's no point too much in trying to predict what it is, and here we have projections of future gas imports, LNG pipeline imports, all you have to notice is the numbers are big and there's a huge range of estimates. So basically we don't know. Underneath this is one big unknown that we were talking about at lunch, which is the shale gas, you will have heard of how in North America there's been this shale gas revolution through horizontal drilling and fracturing, you can bring gas from shales where you weren't able to before, and this has revolutionised not only the US gas market but will change the global gas market. China has a favourable geology. I think the big question is will the political economy of energy in China and will the regulations and administration allow that gas to be exploited quickly or not? To date the signs are not too favourable but they're not really unfavorable. I was in Indonesia last week looking at Colbert Meat Lane and there it's really unfavorable. So I think probably in China we will have a slow pickup but they will get there in the end. So we got huge uncertainties in China's call on international gas markets. The only thing we do know is that it will, like with the oil markets, it will become a major player in global gas markets and in regional gas markets. Here's a map to illustrate some of these factors. What do I press to get a light rather than the middle one? The middle one. Right. I can't see it. I can't see it, right? OK, but if I can't then I can't write the one that is obviously in obscure colours. It's really a disaster. OK, so you've got China here. I've done it schematically, but the first major pipeline coming in was from Kazakhstan, from the Caspian Sea, bringing oil into China. That's a long way. It's got to go even further to get to central China. Some of the oil in this pipeline also sometimes comes from Russia. Then you have the Turkmenistan gas pipeline that comes from Turkmenistan across Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and then into China, and then goes all the way to eastern China through a series of pipelines. There is also now a Russian oil pipeline bringing oil actually from west Siberia into northeast China. Later this year two pipelines will open across Myanmar, Burma. One is bringing gas exploited in Myanmar, produced in Myanmar into southwest China. The oil pipeline will essentially bring any oil from any ship that comes in here across and therefore avoiding the Malacca straits. So China has over the last six years built up quite a substantial strategic network of pipelines that reduces its dependence on the dash lines which are the sea lanes of communication which brings oil from the Middle East or from West Africa. Through the Malacca straits, through the South China Sea, even through the East China Sea up to the major import terminals along the East Coast. The yellow dots are symbolic indications of where the liquefied natural gas plants are, bringing in gas from as you've seen all over the world. What you don't have is a gas import pipeline from Russia. They've been talking about it for not 20 years. Give them time. Give them time. The Russians are not easy to negotiate with neither of the Chinese. Anybody who's still looking at the slides should be thinking, what are the black dots? They are ports being built or built by the Chinese. These two are on Chinese territory, the rest are not. In Myanmar, in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and in Pakistan, these are large ports that could necessarily be used by a future Chinese navy to protect its sea lanes of communication. We now move to the overseas investments because this is often what makes headlines. They started in the early 90s as China was just becoming a net importer of oil. These were small projects of little significance, except it gave the companies a chance to try out their skills and learn about working overseas. In 1997, you then had some big onshore projects, Sudan, which you will have heard about, Kazakhstan, Iran and Venezuela. Gradually in the 2000s, they started to widen their scope, Deepwater, Tarsans, LNG and some active merchant acquisitions buying up smaller companies. 2008-09 marked again a few big investments and it's interesting. The global recession meant something quite different from the China's oil companies than it did for our oil companies. I met one of my students, senior manager in CPC Christmas 2008, and I said to him, what does the recession mean to you? He said, this is a great opportunity. You can see this from 2009. China has been on a shopping spree with deals worth billions of dollars at a time, buying up major assets, mainly in the Americas for the first time, and buying from Western companies who need like BP that I used to work for, but needed to sell either because they had a gas accident in the Gulf of Mexico or otherwise they needed some more cash flow. Billion, 10, 20 billion or so has been spent in the last three or four years, mainly in the Americas by the two or three top Chinese oil companies, including in Britain, Petro-China buying a refinery up in Gragemouth, buying Nexen, which it makes it the largest oil producer in the UK North Sea, and Sino-Pek buying Canadian Talisman, that also makes it the significant player in the North Sea. Getting big in Australia as well. So they stopped investing new big projects in developing countries or in countries which are provider states. If I wanted to use the word, they're now moving in big time. The quantity of oil they produce, 64 million tonnes, something over a million dollars a day they produce from these overseas fields, which is about 20% of their total domestic production. So it's significant. But what's important to know is that oil doesn't necessarily go back to China. Most of the time the companies sell it where they can get the best value for money. Here is a summary. Feel it, you don't need to read it, as to the number of countries that these companies are invested in. In bold I've highlighted my judgement of where the biggest investments are. I was realising looking forward that I've got the United Kingdom under Uzbekistan. I'm not quite sure why that fits there. But I had CIS in Europe and there was almost nothing in Europe until the recent investment. What's interesting about this, as I say, I've been building up this slide for about eight years. I used to have percentages at the top to indicate rough percentage of the distribution of investment. Until four years ago, America's was 5% of total overseas investment. Now I've got it as number one. This is where the dollars are today are in the Americas from Chinese national oil companies. I'm going to end or near end this by saying, why is this happening? Why are these companies going out all over the world throwing these billions around? I identify four sets of players, each with different sets of objectives. The Chinese government, the Chinese national oil companies, the host governments wherever they are and the host national oil companies. The key, I think, is if we start with the national oil companies, it's very simple. Until at least the shale gas revolution might start. The amount of oil and gas to be found in China remaining was very small. So if you're a big oil company, you have to get out. There was no future in China. So the national oil companies ambitions are very clear. Get out, build new business, get new reserves, new production, new profits. Otherwise they're going to disappear. So basically business. Also avoiding tight governance and price controls. You're sitting on the other side of the world. Governments may be a little looser. Certainly more country you're in, but certainly you're away from government price controls. You can send sell stuff directly into the market. I think what is interesting and is particularly in the case of the North Americas and South America is technology and skills. This isn't just catch up. It's now they're buying into the unconventional gas, the deep water offshore Brazil, the unconventional oil. They are going to be at the frontiers of oil and gas, but they are then going to be able to take back to China to exploit their shale gas. For the government, it was a mix. There was this belief several years ago that still lingers on that if we have a Chinese company overseas that has an oil field this somehow enhances our security of oil and gas life. It doesn't. Oilfield in Sudan and Angola, if the Malacra Straits are closed or there's a war in the South China Sea, does nothing for you. But they still believe it. More important is industrial policy. They chose a few sectors and say, we want these companies to be major international players. That makes a lot of sense. Social policy implement, as I say. CNBC still has one and a half million people. Financial policy, it brings in foreign exchange. The oil companies are verby is tax payers in the Chinese economy. And it's an arm of foreign policy. It allows you to go into areas that you wouldn't otherwise do. And I think the fact that China has three major projects in Iraq is not just due to national oil company ambitions and I'm sure it's due to China wanting to place itself in the Middle East. Host governments have a range of objectives. I'm not going to go through more here, but different ones will have different objectives. We need the money, we need the skills. We want to annoy the Americans, think Venezuela. We're a pariah state. No one else is going to come, think Iran or Sudan. So there's a range of host government policies that says we want the Chinese. And again, the host national oil company may also have, you know, we don't have any money. We want to work with some who's got money and skills. And access to opportunities in China. We've got Saudi Aramco and we've got the Kuwaitis now building refineries in China to sell their oil into China. And I think the interesting thing is for how long will these objectives converge in different countries and we're already seeing Chinese oil companies starting to have problems in different countries around the world, not least Nigeria. So, as soon as a question is, you know, what does all this mean for global oil and gas supply? The Chinese are locking up all the oil and gas. Well, no, they're not. They're producing stuff, selling it on the market or even if they send it home. If they are investing, that's good. There's more oil and gas unless you're breathing. They will see that's bad. If you're looking at the oil and gas markets, it's good. They're producing stuff. They have lots of money. They're throwing it into new production. What does it mean for the large international oil companies where BP and Shell are suddenly finding they're going to bed with new players? If you go to Iraq or Angola, then BP and Shell and Total are partnering with the major Chinese oil companies. I think some of the smaller international oil companies or medium-sized ones and some of the NOCs from other oil-importing countries, India, Japan, Malaysia and Korea, they are finding it's very tough competing against the Chinese. They just don't have the bottomless pit of money that comes from the Chinese state banks. The NOCs from oil exporting countries are often very happy to work with Chinese for their skills, technology, for their money and for the opportunity to integrate into the Chinese market. What does it mean for regional security in the Gulf and Southeast Asia? It means that China's interest in this region is just getting bigger and bigger. So you want to talk about Southeast Asia, you want to talk about the Middle East, you cannot leave the Chinese out of these conversations. Relations with states in Africa, from the Soviet Union to Latin America, I mean diplomacy, resource investment, other economic activities basically mean that wherever you go in the world, China is there and the oil industry and the minerals industry and other resources are probably there in a big way. So that's the end of that story. I'm happy to take questions on that or on the unspoken story of China and climate change and internal energy governance. Thank you very much.


Well, good afternoon everybody. There's still some people trickling in Presumably from the luncheon debate. I Personally found that very intriguing because as energy commissioner for ten years I was also the state's liaison to the nuclear regulatory commission, and I've been on both sides of these arguments So anyway, but I won't state my bias at all All right, I think it's we're past time to get started I'm going to get started I Ove my ability to even present my written notes to commissioner Jeff Byron sitting in the audience who's Who's cheater glasses I'm wearing right now because I opened my briefcase, and there were no glasses there, but Since we spent a lot I'll have more to say about former commissioner Byron in a moment Well, good afternoon welcome to what I'm calling the second annual SVS panel on the water energy nexus Or but the program Accurately states because that was an inaccurate description the panel to be the fluid future for California's H2O or water a Very interesting title I never asked who where it exactly came from but but it had to be different than last year Well, I am as advertised in the in the program Jim Boyd the moderator of the panel It's certainly my pleasure to be here Even though I'm a cowman. I'm shoving it in everybody's face I won't get any I won't get any hors d'oeuvres But I really wore it for one reason my dear dear friend and former Commissioner Jeff Byron who is sitting in the audience and how we serve together on the energy commission He's part of the time and I'm Cal. He's Stanford. We bet on the big game every year I had to wear a red tie every year because my my academic institution just couldn't feel the football team during those times So I thought here's my chance to wear my cal tie on his turf Okay, quickly When I looked at the kind I was kind of late as a as a panel moderator and when I and I've been awfully busy lately And when I looked at the program the other day and when I look at my badge this morning is Jim Boyd Boyd group consulting. That's a title. I hide behind When when my wife accuses me of having failed at retirement while I'm working a little bit on the side Whatever I don't know how they came up with it But we did have trouble with my computer getting them But you know it would have been more fashionable to say former energy commissioner like Commissioner Byron says But also might have rationalized for you a tiny bit. What's this guy doing moderating this water energy panel? and And if you were wondering by not figuring out the printed program I'll let me give you just a quick summary of why I have any license at all to be standing here and trying to deal with three experts in the water Arena I as I said I spent 10 years two terms as an energy commissioner and vice chairman of the of the commission and Believe me you get really deeply steeped in the water energy nexus when you're when you're at the energy commissioner dealing with Energy generation in a state and most of you have known or do know and it certainly was a highlight of last year's discussion We use a lot of water In California with regard to to energy we use a significant amount of energy to just move and process water in California It's very significant and during the electricity crisis, which I survived We we it became very important We of course historically have had hydro power in a state you need water to generate that our amount in the state has Been declining. Thank you to climate change sadly We still get a fair amount from the Northwest so it's it's a major slice of our Menu of power sources and power plants use a lot of water for cooling and That has to be taken into the equation but this energy commission quite a long time ago forbade the use of potable water for cooling and at least made that step even before we had drought issues and preceding my energy commission stint, which is probably a product of having worked on the energy crisis or the electricity crisis I Was deputy secretary of the resources agency and we oversaw multiple agencies like DWR and the energy commission that that were dependent on one way or another water and absent from my too long resume I Noticed was the fact I spent eight years of my life at the department of water resources So I'm I've had a lot of exposure to water and the one thing I learned as a very young Idealist adult After my two terms of DWR was that Water was really the modern day modern day starting maybe in 1900 modern day gold in California, and that's That's been true. It's been ignored a lot or it's been battled over as though we're gold But to me we haven't made as much progress as we need to make and that's hopefully what we can talk about today Frankly when I registered to come to this conference. I've been many times. I was going to come I Signed up as nothing more than a retired senior. I just was going to sneak in pay the cheapest rate and and And I qualified for all that That that that only lasted a few hours because former commissioner Byron Mine I did bother to mention to him. I'm coming down to see you in the next thing I know here. I stand as a moderator of a panel on the water energy nexus actually Jeff a planner of this whole conference Moderated the first ever panel this this very panel last year So it was indeed a pleasure for me to to accept Jeff's gracious invitation to moderate And and to have something to do here besides just listen to all this stuff and to pursue an area That's that that is important to me So now let's get down to some important facts about the program for today We have a very distinguished panel as you can see from their resumes in the program And I'm very pleased and grateful for their participation because it means I don't have to get very deep Into the water arena. It's been it's been a while for me We have a representative of a local water agency Jim Fiedler here of the Santa Clara water district Who I've discovered is a real boots on the ground individual when it comes to dealing with? In real time water at the customer or consumer level And this is an area taking on even more responsibility and importance In these years and this year of continuing water scarcity and New policy direction as it relates to the role of local water agencies and you'll probably hear more about that next on the agenda and next in line as David said like I I've enjoyed talking to David on the phone as you see from his Resume he is a widely recognized expert in water professor at UC Berkeley go Bears Head of the Water Center there a celebrated author on the subject of water and He is going to Provide I am confident a very interesting perspective in all aspects of water water history water supply development technology and the water energy nexus which and I believe his presentation will probably provide a platform for our future consideration of this subject and Then thirdly in in order is Frans by a V Weber Vice chair of the state water resources control board or SWR CB as we longtime government people always using jargon say She's a longtime member of that board She came to the board some time ago with Local water policy experience and she's someone I've known for quite some time I have interacted on on water issues during all these Ten years in the water arena that I've talked about not as far back as her alkan She's a young woman compared to me, but it's been a delight knowing her and working with her During the time that our paths crossed and the water board of course has really been at the focal point of California water issues In the last couple of years because of the drought they were handed responsibility to deal with his emergency situation and And have handled it Midaly and very well I think is just sitting and watching and knowing as I do a fair amount about about water Fran was a member of last years I call it the premier panel the first panel on water and energy So we have continuity here with regard to What's happened in the next in the past year and she can and will share with us the latest state government policy pronouncements on water conservation and And water use in California, and I know they've been dealing with a water energy nexus issue for some time But once through cooling issue there was an issue even when I was energy commissioner and an issue I'm working on In my little once in a while consulting capacity Okay, a quick comment about the panel program for the day first in the order I just gave you each of the panelists will make Brief introductory remarks. I'll have the time clock on them Following that we intend to have a conversation between panelists and their moderator About the issues and questions Both emanating from the introductory comments, and then they're free to certainly question each other And to particularly deal with the issues and questions that was put to our entire panel Including myself by the summit organizers before I came along as the moderator and As well as a perhaps I think I'm probably moving your slides around by accident. I'm sorry It just just the weight of paper Is doing it I just saw it flashing in front of me and and as I said Yours truly the moderator has given them a couple questions and might have a couple of others as we move along But we're not given a lot of time So it's a very tall order that this panel has to cover things But here are the issues or questions that were put to us by the by the summit organizers number one California has a limitless supply of water in the Pacific Ocean. Why not desalinate that water and supply it to our thirsty state? But what are the costs and environmental impacts of desalination? How does it compare to other potential water sources such as on-site water recycling or centralized recycling? second issue can our existing method of water storage and delivery be expanded What are the costs and environmental impacts of increasing our storage capacity? That's going to be interesting within the water energy nexus as a question But but I'm sure we'll all and they all will try to to to make it touch that point last on but certainly not least For this forum is quote energy consumption is a significant consideration when comparing methods of water harvesting Is the energy calculation enough to tip the scale or the scales make your singular plural approach to one source or another? The moderator here has put a couple of other questions to the panel first one was California's groundwater to me to me personally a much neglected resource in terms of nurturing and replenishing and not just using as It's been delayed or put off in my opinion far far too long when I started my career in government in at the Department of Water Resources In the 60s. Yes, I'm not old Engineers and geologists then we're talking about The groundwater problem that California faces and I have watched from the sidelines or not so much sidelines Little to no attention paid to this other than as a source of water In my opinion. So my question is It's back in the limelight because of the drought We've heard a lot in the past year and a half two years of of this issue You heard a comment this morning about so much groundwater extraction in the valley. There's massive Subsidence etc. So what's the status of our supplies of groundwater? What's the prognosis for the future and what are the energy implications of where we find ourself? Ie use and hopefully recharge and Then secondly last year the state of California as I said in the person the water board took charge of managing the crisis After four years of drought They should water conservation and emergency regulations aimed at achieving a 25% overall reduction in potable water use The time period was June of 2015 through February 20 or to February 2016 now the governor's Extended the date as I understand it to October of this year in February the water board issued amendments to it regs that have many Conservationists last environmentalists up in the up and arms. How does all this relate to our water conservation water energy? And and the energy Nexus how does this relate to to the progress that we're supposed to be making and to the future? We'd like to see and and there's so much more we could talk about but as I said we have limited time And I'm eating into it already, so let's move to the introductory remarks Jim will come up first or sit there Well, I guess you have Jim has got a presentation which I have watched up so he can back it up I'll go fast and the other two as I understand don't have Slides so let's move through Okay, thank you, Jim. Let's see. Well, in conclusion I won't see if I can move this backwards Yes, okay No, let's see here.  All right. I don't know how you moving forward, but I'll move on forward Great. All right. Thanks again. I'm Jim Fiedler. Happy to be here I'm going to give you a brief synopsis of the water situation for Santa Clara County You know here from the other presenters as they describe a more of a statewide perspective again Our agency is the Santa Clara Valley Water District And we have three primary functions water supply for Silicon Valley flood protection kind of an agency that covers both those functions And we do that trying to be really respectful of the ecosystem in our county So making sure we can provide healthy ecosystems in our streams On the ground on the clean reliable supply. We are the ground water basin manager We talked about that a second ago with Jim. We also import water into the county where the importer We also manage and operate the local surface storage reservoirs And so who we serve Silicon Valley as you see it was already on this slide earlier Get the statistics of who we serve in this county thriving population We're all well aware of this is the map of Silicon Valley or Santa Clara County It doesn't show the road system It shows with the exception of the red line on the very top is the infrastructure that's managed by the Santa Clara Valley Water District This is infrastructure that's been put in place over the last 80 years Local reservoirs a lot of treated and raw water pipelines and these are the raw trend These are the wholesale lines a large diameter pipelines that transmit water throughout the valley We're in the portion of the county In Sanford that is served water from a contract that Stanford has with the city and County of San Francisco So the water you're enjoying today is Hetch Hetchy water is derived from O'Shaughnessy Dam in the Sierra and brought down and convey Through the San Francisco system and that's not sure that that line is just the red line at the top of the screen But anyway, we put together a pretty extensive infrastructure over the last 80 years of groundwater management We have over 400 acres of recharge ponds We recharge on average about 100,000 acre-feet a year of water into the groundwater and that waters local stored water in our Local reservoirs as well as why that we import from the Sacramento San Joaquin Delta So we see you saw the slide earlier in our region here Over half our supplies are imported Which is different than other parts of the bay in the San Francisco service area over 80% of the water is imported East Bay mud a great a great majority of water imported half our water supply here 40% through the Delta the other percentage is really local water that we're able to manage sustainably through a storage in our reservoirs and then percolation into our groundwater basin and then we talked about groundwater earlier And that subsidence issue. This is a chart that shows us the historical record of the Centricular Valley Water District the blue line is basically a depth of water in a groundwater index well in San Jose The green lines population growth that's occurred over the last 80 or so years the top line is subsidence in this county We've had land surface subsidence historically in fact it shows up there 13 feet between 1915 and 1970 of subsidence Which is why some of the areas the north San Jose are protected by levees and parts of Palo Alto because the land has subsided Due to over pumping of the groundwater basin, but you see what we've done in our agency is but through the management of groundwater and Basically recharging you see in the late 1920s the first drop there our agency was formed We built local reservoirs the groundwater table rebounded but post-warward to boom in Silicon Valley or before Silicon Valley You see the groundwater table falling to the 1960s. That's when we brought imported water into the county You see the rebound of the the blue line forward in the late 80s We brought in additional imported water and you see the rebound there was also coincide with drought periods You see at the very end the current drought and you see that the groundwater table continuing to fall there We've had a rebound due to the incredible conservation efforts of our region And this is the graph not not of water. This is the graph Moving really fast. How do you pay for it? This is a chart that shows our historical and projected water revenue our water rates That is that's going to pay for much of the infrastructure that we're enjoying and so you can see the cost here We are 19 or 2017 fiscal $1,000 an acre foot for treated water in Santa Clara County and you see that going up to about 2300 by 2026 and that's due to a number of factors We're spending millions of dollars close to billions of dollars on infrastructure in our county and We pay for that through volumetric rates and that's how we fund our programs So looking at the energy connection, we're certainly trying to drive for carbon neutrality I'm certainly your conference here is on energy We're doing that through a number of different means as we consider our energy footprint in water Here's a chart that shows and gives you a description of the energy uses in California it was talked about in some of the other sections You see about 15 to 20 percent of the the energy used in California is in the water supply chain You don't think about that much in fact two to three percent of the entire state energy is used to pump water in the California State water project of which we're a participant of and you see the other distribution of energy usage in Regents from the California Energy Commission in 2016 Let me look at the intensity of energy in terms of water deliveries It will touch upon that with the other panelists you look at the various costs of energy Excuse me the the energy usage per acre foot of water. You see recycled water That's basically title 22 water for landscape irrigation or cooling towers You see imported water costs and the about close to about close to 1500 Kilowatt hours per acre foot then you look at advanced purified water with waste water treating that to a high quality Then you look at desalination taking basically ocean water and converting that to drinking water in the energy footprint That that would take about over 2500 kilowatt hours per acre foot Then you look in our region. How does energy used in the delivery of water that we delivered to Santa Clara County? We conveyed the water through The water that's imported into our region that energy cost in a word for a zero to about close to a thousand kilowatt hours per acre foot We treated it three conventional water treatment plants. There's an energy footprint there We distribute that there's an energy footprint to pump that and distribute that and then look at the end user kilowatt hours Which is substantial because the biggest one of the biggest sources of energy uses in water is heating water in the homes And then you know there's a wastewater component that processes at the back and puts it back into the hydrologic cycle So if we think about what's driving us thinking about how do we make better use of our limited water resources? Certainly the droughts been a factor our limited supplies You saw an earlier photo one of the other sessions that showed this is Lake Orville in 2014 was pretty luck pretty dry This is the basically the backbone of the state water project north of the Delta Extraction of groundwater certainly subsidence issues that's happening in the Central Valley and then a major concern of ours as well We don't want the re-initiation of land subsidence. So we're looking very carefully at Recycle water purifying water It's a local source We can locally control it We can drought proof it because we're not it won't be subjected to the variability of hydrology And it certainly is a source of water. We're actively involved and engaged in so this chart earlier The region's been expanding the use of recycled water currently about 5% of the water use in Santa Clara County is recycled We have great aspirations that really make great strides to increase that mostly if non potable uses that is for landscape irrigation Cooling towers. In fact, you remember the Super Bowl of Levi Stadium 80% of the water used at Levi Stadium is recycled water From the city of town is from the city of San Jose that's processed through our advanced purification plant But we have great aspirations for the future as shown on here We want to develop over 45,000 acre feet of recycled water purify that for groundwater recharge potentially for direct potable reuse and Here's kind of an idea what the potential is what you see there is the average 215 wastewater treatment at the four wastewater plants in Santa Clara County produced in about 167,000 acre feet of wastewater of that amount We use about 12% currently, so there's great aspirations to potentially make additional use of this resource as a water supply and Then we have put online and you're welcome to tour it we give public tours our silicon valley advanced purification center It's located in north San Jose. It's an 8mgd facility brought online in 2014 It uses a great technology of microfiltration reverse osmosis and UV light disinfection to really show how we can treat wastewater secondary effluent from wastewater plant to basically drinking water quality and how we can apply that in our future to meet our long-term needs Here's how they're thinking about doing that Currently the purple line the purple pipe is really the traditional way of using Recycled water from wastewater plant. We put online our purified Facility we're hoping to and we're blending that that water from that facility to help improve the quality of the non potable water But we're looking at now How can we expand the use of that advanced purification to recharge in our groundwater basin? Or potentially if regulations allow to allow us to use that water as a source water a raw water source water for our Conventional surface water treatment plants for delivering to homes and businesses And this is an outline of some potential projects that we could have online to help move that water from an advanced purification facility down to our recharge areas and So certainly a sustainable tomorrow for us is going to involve using recycled water It's good for the environment and provides that drought-proof supply and certainly the technology as it gets improvements through the years can certainly allow us to Save on some of the energy costs that it takes to really operate a system of nature With that I'll stop and I know we have the other panelists and we'll take questions Thank you He's got it right down to the minute So I'm not going to use any slides at all and I'm going to take advantage of Jim's remarks to not say too much about the energy water nexus I appreciate the Invitation to come here because too often I spend my time talking to water people and not energy people and It's the same discussions over and over again, and we talk about the progress We're making we try to compare notes on the technologies We're excited about but you know there's this whole other world here of energy that is Making a big difference to how the state thinks about sustainability how it shows us how Infrastructure can change over time and how the confluence of technological innovation government regulation Political will can bring about big change And so we look to the energy sector to teach the water sector how to move forward and what I'd like to do today is to tell you what's going on a little bit in the water sector and how it might be connected to energy and Not to talk about the usual Truisms about the water energy nexus that you've heard so much about in the past but to touch on where I think California is going especially with respect to the municipal sector. So you heard from Jim about the water Energy nexus maybe another way to think about it if you don't think about acre foot too often Or even if you're not always thinking about kilowatt hours is that the average California family has a 50 watt light bulb burning in their house all the time and that light bulb is the water Infrastructure that's providing them with residential water And so when we think about how to reduce energy use we think about what we could do on that piece of the water pie But that's not what's driving change in the urban water sector these days It's really about supply reliability and so Jim doesn't wake up every day thinking about. Oh my goodness It's gonna cost a lot of money to have the power for this energy It's that my community could be running out of water some day And so how do I plan ahead and the way in which California cities are going is Taking on four different approaches the first one is demand management I think you think a lot about demand management in the electricity sector. We think about it in the water sector Urban stormwater capture that is the rain water that falls on cities being captured and put into the ground as a water supply Water reuse you heard Jim talk about a little bit and then Sea water desalination which Jim the other Jim Introduced in his remarks as it's something that we should try to touch on during this meeting And I want to talk a little bit about all four of those and the energy implications And then give you some things that you might not expect based on your instinct as energy people when thinking about water Which could be perilous traps as you try to apply what you've learned from energy to water So let's start first of all with demand management We hear a lot about the analogies between demand management in water and the demand management energy Certainly, there's room for conservation So indoor conservation is a great thing to do in terms of saving money and having a return on investment Especially if it has to do with hot water That's why front-loading washing machines and things that reduce Heating of water are so attractive to utilities in the water and power sector But what a lot of people don't realize is that we're going to reach a point with indoor water conservation where it's going to Bottom out so an electricity you'd like to drive Electricity use in the house to zero in the water sector We are only going to drive it down to about 25 to 35 gallons per person per day Because if we drive water use down below that the sewer stop working and we have massive corrosion in our sewer system And we can't just abandon the sewer system as it is So we have a lot of policies in place that are going to drive indoor water conservation down But at some point it's going to stop and we're going to be like Israel or Australia or those existing technologies And then there are going to be few opportunities for indoor water conservation Outdoor water conservation is a huge opportunity and we saw that during the current drought That it's pretty easy to replace lawns with California friendly landscaping But there are two traps here The first trap is the urban heat island effect if you rip out all the plants you rip out all the shade trees The cooling demand grows and people don't like living in cities that are just concrete jungles And so the public is going to push back at some point and it's going to be wise to not push beyond a certain point anyway So with those two we could probably reduce water use urban water use by somewhere around 30% just like we did during the current drought There's also another area of demand management and that's pressure management and leak control if you think about managing pressure within the water distribution system and replacing pipes to to stop leaks in California something about like 5% of the water we put in our urban water systems leaks out and that's a waste of energy We've done the analyses on this and we put it in kind of the context of the McKinsey curve that you may be familiar with And it's negative in the McKinsey curve That is it's there's a good return on investment from doing both pressure management and leak detection in urban water systems And it's not being exploited enough by water utilities due to some logistical and institutional issues Switching now to stormwater capture. This is something that's becoming very popular in Southern, California A lot of political will behind this idea of capturing stormwater and putting it back into the ground It's not quite as proven to technologies as the other ones. There needs to be more research and development There needs to be more demonstration projects so these projects probably are going to grow more slowly and some of them are going to be green infrastructure that is going to Satisfy members of the public but not yield a great deal of water for water utilities So it's going to we're going to make investments in it But it's probably not going to yield a lot of water for urban districts immediately and that's why the urban water Districts are more interested in water reuse and desalination as a reliable supply Because they're proven technologies and engineers feel comfortable with them. So with respect to water reuse Jim mentioned the purple pipe system like South Bay water recycling a number of cities in California have these so-called purple pipes or non-potable water and I could tell you that if I had a crystal ball here I tell you that we're not going to build too many of these in the future that is the centralized non-potable water reuse systems turn out to be economically unattractive not only that but they they facilitate the proliferation of golf courses and lawns and the kinds of water uses that we're not so comfortable with and So utilities are doing just what Jim was talking about pushing towards potable water reuse because the technology has been proven By projects like the groundwater replenishment project in Orange County That's been operating for I mean the water factory 21 plus the groundwater replenishment project going on 40 years now So it's a proven Permittable designable buildable kind of technology and that's why there's so much enthusiasm for it I think you're going to hear more and more talk about doing water recycling at the office park scale or The individual housing development scale so-called distributed water reuse there are a number of Institutional challenges associated with doing this there's going to be a session after this to talk about that But I'll just say for now that it's a very small fraction of the plans for future water supplies And it's going to take some time and effort to actually yield substantial amounts of water from those distributed projects Desalination we were asked to talk about it Desalination is is a really interesting story in California One of the challenges with desalination I think some of you know that the largest desalination plan in the Western Hemisphere was opened and commissioned in Carlsbad north of San Diego This year 50 million gallons per day There are two things you might want to think about with respect to the future of desalination in California The first of which is that it's an issue that's tied up with once through cooling That is a lot of the planned and proposed seawater desalination plans are Co-located with power plants and they rely upon those once through cooling intakes and so there's going to be this kind of tension between Those who want to close down these coastal power plants with once through cooling and people who want to build seawater desalination plants they are using the same intakes and so there's a political and permitting cap complexity and then there's also The fact that everyone's concerned about the energy demand of seawater desalination. It's Jim showed you the figure there It's about 3.5 kilowatt hours per cubic meter The theoretical minimum is when you when you add in the frictional loss and the actual operation of a plant somewhere around 1.5 kilowatt hours per cubic meter So with the technologies that are being developed by this maturing industry We'll see some additional savings in energy, but we're not going to see the kinds of savings and energy that we've seen over the past 20 years We're really leveling out on the efficiency of seawater desalination Systems, but there are is some good news and some opportunities for us to think about One of which is integrating seawater desalination plants with the grid so we heard about the duck curve this morning if we can find ways to store energy and Use that energy to run a desalination plant or you know There are all these connections between pump hydro and water supply and also the possibility of Producing water at night when when energy prices are low There are lots of opportunities here to think more about how desal plants integrate into the management of the grid There's a and along those lines the Department of Energy and the White House are pushing this Pipe parity initiative that they really hope to drive the price of seawater desalination Down by 80% and so there's going to be some efforts happening at the federal level With some of the national labs in the next few years to try to really create a game-changing technology by reducing the cost of Desalinated seawater from $2 a cubic meter to 50 cents a cubic meter And I think that would really change a lot of our thinking and discussions that we would have here today So before I wrap up I just wanted to add a couple of things to think about as energy people when you look at the challenges the water people face First of all, I want you to realize that water isn't energy and the things that you learned about rooftop solar and distributed generation Don't necessarily apply to water There are technologies out there that allow us to recycle water at the building scale and at the development scale But they're very energy-intensive So those membrane bioreactors that people talk about putting into office parks or the basements of buildings are about as Energy-intensive seawater desalination So I'm always a little bit dumbfounded when I hear people saying that they want to build this because it's a green technology But then they're opposed to seawater desalination because it's an energy hog It just doesn't add up to me and when you look at the cost of doing water recycling at the centralized level like the project that Jim Described it's much more energy efficient and cost effective the second thing I wanted to mention is that You think a lot about energy demand and how it varies over time in the water field We think about how water demand varies over time, but we don't think in terms of days We think in terms of decades We have some decades some years that are that we have plenty of water And we have some years where we don't have much water at all And we have to have the storage there to get us through those dry years And so some of the things that we're doing now of Outdoor landscape conservation and making the system more efficient is cutting our elasticity So in this current drought we had the elasticity of all these lawns that we could let go brown But as we get more and more efficient as we reduce the low-hanging fruit We're going to be at running this system at a much tighter place when it comes to droughts And we're going to have to build more storage or we're going to have to over build our systems If we're going to get rid of these sources of water that can be adjusted in times of drought And I think you run into similar things in the energy world where you look for certain uses of energy To reduce energy use during particularly hot days or periods of high demand We're going to have to be more intelligent and take some lessons from you as we think about how to evolve the water grid in The future and with that I think I'll stop and let Fran Thank you David. I too am very glad to be here I was here last year and so this is very nice to be coming back and talking to an audience that is not as familiar as As water audiences and yet much very much able to To influence how water gets used in the future and I'm also pleased to be following Jim and David because that I think they have given you a very very strong overview of how how water works in in California and How what are some of the things that we should be thinking about as we move forward? Clearly costs will be a big issue climate Will be a big issue because the variability that we're seeing that was referred that David just referred to is Going to probably be even greater and perhaps We don't really know for sure exactly where it's going to to fall less water more water But but we at least we're Suspecting that there will be a lot more variability than we have had in the past And so what's the what's the way to go? In energy what you have done is It happened in the marketplace You have largely a few players some in Southern California some in Northern California and There is a an effort to to Work in in a very big palette with a very very big palette in water in Contrast there are hundreds there are thousands There are little ones little little little little ones and big ones. Yes for sure ladwp, but largely, it's it's very it's quite varied and So I think go back to what Jim was talking about it at the beginning There are differences Regionally in terms of where the water is coming from what the challenges are is it imported it? Do you have groundwater basins? Do you have? Ways in which to to do something and then how do we actually figure out how to get all these very interesting Different groups to work together and that's where the water board comes in we are very are charged With protecting water quality We are charged with allocating water rights and making changes in those water rights and and as of two years ago We also are charged with Drinking water and making sure that there is clean reliable drinking water for most of California and the the the key Seems to be and it's based largely on some of the experience that we've had with the with the drought is to establish standards that The that the water agencies can understand and can can Adapt based on their region can adapt to based on their region and then hold the water agencies accountable To those standards that's the current theory that we're operating on and therefore it will be a very decentralized regional approach Southern California Northern California inland desert Coastal and so you're going to for those of you in the energy world I Think that will be helpful to you because you will be there will be Natural allies that you can work with in the region where you are working now as as you move forward the another Factor that has gone into helping us get to this point is Is Governor Brown? Because Governor Brown has came in to his new job Several years ago not seven years ago. I guess six years ago Having done it before and being older He has really Emphasized as has his governor's office integration of the various agencies so well While Jim and I work together a lot on the water energy nexus Now we work more on the water energy nexus and it's not easy to work with agencies that are like yours Or that are different from yours, but we're learning how to do it We're spending a lot more time together and the governor's office is spending a lot more time pulling the various agencies together to get this kind of of integration at the at the regional level as well as at the at the state level so that is That has been extremely helpful and and it has helped us Particularly in this whole new world of climate change Since we don't know exactly where things are going to be or what is going to happen We are looking at at things like new water That would be desalination. It could be recycled water the emphasis has largely been on Recycled water and right now the division of drinking water is overseeing the the rules that will apply to serve to augmenting or increasing the amount of water in a surface water reservoir Reservoir with recycled water. They have already created some regulations for Groundwater recharge using recycled water to recharge Groundwater so this underscores what what David mentioned that we are moving I won't say we're moving away from purple pipe because purple there is a lot of purple pipe out there But whether there'll be a lot more purple pipe in the future is I would have to agree with David that it's somewhat unlikely it's much more Advantages to go with groundwater recharge and with with surface water augmentation and we're looking at the feasibility of direct what's called direct potable reuse taking recycled water and Spending a lot of money to treat it, but making it more usable directly that's still that's still a At the research level But it's not it's certainly not out of the out of the realm of possibility in the show in the what I would call the medium term in the next five to ten years on desalination desalination is is very attractive I call it the bright shiny object and I Can't tell you I do not go to a party that someone doesn't ask me about desalination as the answer Well, it's just not it just it just isn't for all kinds of reasons, but is it a component of some Communities Solving their water their water problems of course of course, but it's not the panacea It's not the thing that's going to save us in San Diego. They have very few groundwater basins and so Looking at desalination makes some sense to them in Monterey They have very little water lots of big developments And so they are looking at desalination as a as a possibility But again, it's very regional and it's very it has to be integrated because the people who get the water Where there be desalinated water recycled water imported water whatever water you get the people are going to have to pay for it and they cannot even Even with the numbers that that Jim Fiedler put up as to what are what the cost of water is going to be in The future and it is going up. No doubt about that it is it is going to be extremely important to conserve to reduce To the greatest extent practical just like you've done with with energy to reduce the amount of water Just as you've done with energy of To the reduce the amount of water that you need in order to flush the toilet in order to Grow a garden in order to keep trees in your area and and avoid the heat island effect Conservation is going to be the most cost-effective the most the the centerpiece of every region that that pursues that pursues a water plan and I think that is a smart way to go and then you start to add to it depending on your local conditions those other things that that you can do and The law and technology will be your friend in all of these efforts. Thank you Okay, since I chewed up some of the time at the beginning and in messed up Jim's presentation I'm going to limit any pursuit of questions. I did ask I am going to ask Well, I'm going to make an observation one the purple pipe thing. That was very interesting to me because As a commissioner for ten years, that's what we were requiring purple pipelines to power plants new proposed power plants for their cooling water So I presume that purple pipe won't go away Unless we stop building power plants and go other other ways But in any event that's just just not a question. Just an observation interesting thoughts about recycled water I think I think all the panelists touch upon all the questions that were asked of us With one exception my question, which really goes to Fran if she wants to say anything about This your regulations Proposals with regard to the conservation program and I'm bringing it up only because as I In my limited knowledge about what you're doing see it You're bringing the local just your local water agencies more into the picture being responsible and having a role in this No correct me if I'm wrong and say whatever you might want to say about that because it has caused a lot of concern on the part Of people think oh, they're not gonna you know the state needs to do it They're not they're not going to achieve the goals that we said Well, we've learned over the last several years in working on conservation is that we really do need We do need to do more to enable local water agencies to to do the right thing to Pursue conservation to pursue other other sources So what what are we going to do the governor has extended actually? Until the until January of next year has extended the executive order But has given a lot of leeway to the state board as to what they should do particularly over the long term and so we'll be putting together an advisory committee in the next month and We will be developing regulations That probably around the idea of standards that would then go out and get implemented locally by by water agencies But exactly what those standards would be whether it would be 55 gallons per capita per day indoors as on the books now or Are we striving toward the 25 or our 30 gallons per capita per day indoors? in the future what kinds of outdoor landscape is Is a standard that we should be using so that people can choose whether to put in trees or whether to Put in gardens or exactly what it is that they want to do we'll be doing that, but we're going to do it fast We're going to get this the draft put together by October with help from the local agencies and then we will be Fine-tuning it and making it available to the governor to if the governor is interested in putting it out as legislation next year and There are some other changes that that will be going on But that will be the biggest one it will be will be that now on the short term between now and the end the beginning of next year if if Every water agency is going to have to continue to send in their their monthly Production numbers and if someone has been producing here and suddenly they're producing way up here We'll make a phone call and we'll try to figure out what's going on and we can change our minds about kind of the local Control over over what's going on if we see a need to at this point Of course we see we don't see a need and in fact I just looked at the April numbers and we definitely don't see a need based on the April numbers, so I You know we have the ability to turn around and change our minds But for right now, we're trusting that the locals do want to do a do the right thing. Thank you Fran To the other panelists you have any questions of each other before we go to the audience I want to give them a chance. We have a good size audience here None, okay questions from the audience in the limited time we have left. I saw Rust's hand go up first Speak up while they're working on my here Here comes the mic I'm working on a project for the California Energy Commission under a grant called the zero net energy farm and and this water energy nexus is very interesting to me we're in the Westlands water district and so water is a is it the opinions very widely and And the interest groups seem to be the environmental use of water the agricultural use of water and the urban use of water We're trying to focus on Renewables that are on demand that can be generated on site on the farm from the anaerobic digestion And gasification so we don't exacerbate the problems of the duck curve Do you think that it would be? possible to to Quantify the amount of water that's used in the production of non-renewable electricity and and provide that as an incentive for agricultural interests Adopting renewable energy strategies in the Central Valley So maybe you you can inform me about something My impression is that a lot of the water used in in Power production in California is seawater for the coastal plants and hydro Which I don't know how one accounts for it unlike much the rest of the country So do you have a suspicion that there's a lot of water used in electricity production within California? I Have seen numbers on the on the use of water for production of petroleum and That's it's huge. It really is quite large. However, it comes from a different place in the ground and it is It's regional it's in Kern County. It's in a section of the of the State that is not where the urban folks are living and so You know, it would have to you'd have to look at it But but it's being looked at now But not I wouldn't say not seriously and I'll take a little bit of a of a contrary position to David's in that I don't think we have even touched we haven't even started saving water like we could and So one reason people aren't going to some of these more creative Approaches is they don't really have to there is enough water One of the problems that we have in the Central Valley is that people have expanded their footprint for Agriculture and therefore they need more water. It's not that they're used that they don't know how to save water They just expanded more. So I think we're going to have to get a little bit hungrier before we go there Well right here and then the man well gentlemen in the front History of water in California my understanding is we've sort of taken it through the aqueduct system and moved it from where it is to where it Needs to be okay along those lines when I consider extending the aqueduct system all the way up to the Columbia River Another water war They already don't like us very much or again in Washington Well, I think not not being facetious I think that we've reached a point where seawater desalination is very equivalent I mean that the cost of building massive imported water systems is not Negligible and there's not an infinite supply of north in the Columbia River and there's a salmon run and there's dams and everything else We have the ability now if we get desperate I mean Fran talked about it as a bright shiny object I think of it as a last resort that no California City will ever run out of water We would do what the Australians did during the millennial drought and build seawater desalination plants in a hurry so I think it's always there for us and the what I see as kind of the research challenge is to drive down the cost to make it not the last resort but to make it a Viable resort that starts to displace the imported water systems that are Detrimental to the environment. Let me inject during my tenure as an energy commissioner. We studied Desalination along with a lot of the folks and and actually the highest priority was assigned to Dissolting brackish water rather than seawater of which there's a lot of in California And and the whole you already heard the issue is it's incredibly energy intensive So it would that have to be considered in the system I would also comment that quite a bit of water is used in cooling power plants that is not Seawater or coastal water all the simple cycle combined cycle natural gas plants that have been built and over fists the last few years All need cooling water While they're highly efficient. There's a lot of them and you saw a power source growing in California So it's been all recycled water for the most part for the last more than 15 years almost But you know as we talked about earlier, you know We're still even when we make all these investments in conservation and in recycling or maybe even diesel You know much of California is very dependent on imported water I mean that's sort of our life blood and it's almost like the nuclear energy question We had earlier at lunch, you know because it's so divisive trying to fix the Delta Because that's really the heart of California water issues because so much of water is imported from the Delta to serve many Californians and an ag in Central Valley So I think it's very important for us to diversify our water supply options with with these various trades We've looked at brackish are looking at carciniestrates desalting water there among the bay area water agencies And that might be a source of water that we would then transfer through our various infrastructure piping But even with those reductions, we're looking to expand double our use of recycled water But we're still very dependent on imported water And so we need to make sure that system is a reliable force to this gentleman here But I would I would say well go ahead. I'm used up too much. We're running out of time. So I'll ask your question Okay, so hopefully this is quick enough And this is I guess to anyone who wants to answer in terms of Potable reuse looking to the future. Do you see direct potable? Which is a little further off indirect potable? Which one of those do you see being the primary source or maybe they both play a big part? Eventually how much of that do you think could be in the water supply? And then do you have a worry that Wastewater Influence supplies because of conservation efforts, etc. Are going to dwindle and that you're going to build out your your treatment capacity on the back end too much Yes, yes, and yes I think in the in the medium term indirect potable is going to be the Action of choice and that would be for groundwater recharge purple pipe actually still and And also surface water augmentation Longer term there will be some areas that will want to go to To direct potable, but it will be expensive. So that again, it's a regional choice and it'll be What are your other options and and have you you know, have you looked at the ones that are most optimal? Where you should invest your money in the future. I have no idea But tell me what you decide to do Last question gentlemen back with the mic. We're I've run you out of time to get here next So I saw a very alarming presentation on how the groundwater is being depleted in California And I know there's a law that will eventually address that but You know, I think fundamentally the question is You know agriculture is using that We need ag it's a certainly a good good thing to be doing How do you see that delta? You know the difference between the sustainable level of use of the aquifers and What's currently being done?  Well, I'll just I'll say two things and then David looks like he's ready to say more one is I think Farmers are really smart and so if they have a limited amount of water They will move to higher value crops. So they they move to vines. They move to tree crops They move to cut flowers down in San Diego. So there will be changes in In agriculture, I do not think we will lose agriculture Well, I have a comment. I didn't appreciate you laughing at my friend suggests that we go to the Columbia River Well, he it know it is it is not funny. You know, I mean, I don't know if it's funny. It is a little bit funny, but It's it's it's it is a political challenge But it's mostly a cost challenge and a delay challenge if you have to get permits if you have to Build these things are there cheaper ways to go? And yes, there are many many many other cheaper ways to go So yeah, absolutely positively Absolutely, you know, maybe what they said the movie Chinatown if you don't bring the water to the people you bring the people to the water One reason why I would give us the water because they don't want us to come to Oregon Would you join me in thanking this panel?


I'll first go through the slides and afterwards do some kind of live demo to make things a little easier. I'll switch back and forth. Yeah, so my session will be about developing telephony functionality for Plasm Mobile using Phonesim. Yeah, first let's talk about why you would want to use Phonesim instead of a real device. Some of you probably own Pine Phones and so on. Obviously, sending many test SMS can be expensive, just like calling people all the time, which you have to calculate that most of those calls will probably not work if you are developing, so you will waste a lot of money if you use a real SIM card and modem. Send code to the phone takes time because the phone doesn't have a very powerful processor usually and you can probably do some kind of cross-compiling, but all of that will be much more complicated than using a computer for development. Also on the Pine phone, for example, bugs outside of the application you are developing could affect debugging, for example, if something is not yet working in the Kernel or other user space processes. Obviously, not everyone has a Pine phone or a Vibram 5 at all, so many people have to use Phonesim anyway. Phonesim is a cute-based application that simulates a GSM modem. Its functionality includes simulating calls, SMS, but also the SIMC toolkit, which is usually an application running on the SIM card itself. It also can simulate all kinds of things like signal, strength, carrier, name, and so on, which will be displayed in the Plasma phone shell and Phonesim is basically implemented like any Ophono driver. It's just a plug-in included in Ophono that speaks to Phonesim and so it won't make any difference to the application using Ophono, whether it's a Phonesim or a real modem driver. So Phonesim was initially developed for Nokia as part of Qtopia and later Qtextended, but as we all know it doesn't exist anymore, so it was later transferred to Intel apparently, which can be seen at the copyright notices in the code. Nowadays, it's hosted in the Ophono team on kernel.org, which is also still kind of owned by Intel, but it's open for everyone to contribute and contributions can be done through the Ophono mailing list. But of course, the most important thing about it is how we can use it for development. So first we need to get running. There is the issue that the current stable release, which is 1.21 at this point, is still based on Qt4. Intel seems to use it actively, but they are not really Qt developers, so they didn't really notice Qt4 was old. I talked to them and they are just using one VM image, which works for them. Anyway, so everyone but Intel can also use it. It was ported to Qt5, because the developers are, as I said, not Qt developers, but mostly focused on C. It uses an auto-autotool-based build system, but compiling is easy enough if you use the default slash USR prefix and nothing or slash USR local prefix and nothing special. In addition to Ophono, you will need Ophono, of course, so you can develop things for Ophono. Ophono itself doesn't depend on Ophono, but Ophono needs to be available at run time. Ophono is not enabled by default in Ophono. So we need to edit Ophono.conf and uncomment everything so it looks like the code in the slide. Afterwards, we need to restart Ophono to apply the new configuration. Ophono does support a GUI argument to tell it to use the GUI instead of the default Divers interface. In this case, I wrote the full path, because in the previous step we just installed Ophono, it might be that USR local bin is not yet in your path before you logged in to your session on your device again, but usually you can just write Ophono and not slash USR local bin, Ophono and so on. The most important thing is that we pass it the configuration file. It can emulate different kinds of modems in theory, but in all cases I needed the default configuration was totally fine. Also this configuration defines parts of Ophono, Ophono uses locally. The defaults are totally fine and we don't really need to edit anything there. Once we started that command, we will notice that nothing happens, which can be confusing at first, but the GUI doesn't start until the modem is enabled, which Ophono can tell the modem to do. For that we will need the Ophono scripts. In some distributions they are packaged, mostly as a package called Ophono scripts. We, those packages are not available on all those distributions. If they are not available on yours, you can find them in the Ophono repository in the test directory and just use it from the source directory of Ophono without having to compile Ophono yourself. If it is included in your distro, it's probably located in USR share Ophono scripts. In the following commands you will have to replace the path if it's not coming from the distribution. The most in the two scripts we are going to use for now are enable modem and online modem. The names pretty much show what they do. After you executed the enable modem script, the GUI should appear, but the modem is not yet online, so it doesn't have any connection or it doesn't emulate any connection. Once the window has started to appear, you can set the modem online using the second script. There are some common issues that can appear when using phone them. They are caused by the Ophono scripts not being extremely clever. They usually try to use first modem available and so you need to make sure there is nothing else seeming like modem to Ophono. The common issue is that the Bluetooth tag also has support for speaking to remote modems and Ophono supports that. So, in some cases Ophono might think that some device you previously connected to your Bluetooth adapter has a modem as well and it tries to use this one. Just disabling Bluetooth will work around it easily. There is a typo in the presentation. But in general if the scripts print out some deep-ass errors, the most common issue is that Ophono is probably not running yet this can be easily fixed. On system D distros, its surface Ophono start, other distros might either use sysfow in its script so slash etc init.d Ophono start or similar things. Once we have the Ophono Ophono running, we can see all the different functionality it provides. The most commonly used for a pleasant mobile is the SMS tab. The calls tab is hiding behind the error there. At the bottom you can see that we can enter an operator name or test this which will be useful for testing LTE and GSM settings in the shell. All AT commands the modem uses are displayed at the right of the windows so every time an SMS arrives or is sent by the application or is fake to arrive by the modem it will appear in there and of course all other actions will also leave AT commands there. One interesting feature of Ophono which is not currently or pleasant mobile currently doesn't use it is emulating the SIM toolkit. Of course Ophono doesn't actually include an emulator for those SIM noodles based on java card but it implements the same way of communicating as the SIM card would do. This is mostly based on numbers defined to do some special functionality and both sides then have to know what this number means. So if you want to understand how a SIM toolkit in java card works this is actually pretty useful to understand it. There are also good talks on YouTube. I think Santu knows about them because he recommended them to me in the first place. So the source code of Ophono is also useful to understand this kind of functionality. If anyone wants to implement SIM toolkit in Plasma Mobile this would be the place to start. This is a slide. We are now moving a little bit away from the main topic but it is important to do anything useful with Ophono in Plasma Mobile context. The applications in Shell do not communicate directly with Ophono but in most cases use telepathy which then needs the telepathy Ophono back in to be installed so telepathy can actually talk to Ophono. Telepathy is a framework providing abstractions for all kinds of communication in the more human sense like calls, messages, in theory even video chats and so on. For Plasma Mobile we only use the voice call and text channel features for now. If you need more direct communication with Ophono for some application for example it is used by the Shell to find out the carrier name and so on and also the signal strength. There is libq Ophono which is the newer of two Ophono queued binding libraries. It is developed by Jolla so the good thing is we don't have to care much about it is developed for us. But in case you need more direct communication for some application Ophono provides a D-Bus interface. If you end up writing this D-Bus interface in Qt you can upstream it to libq Ophono because that's mostly how libq Ophono also works. For example the SIM toolkit is as of now not yet supported in libq Ophono as far as I know so that would be the possible use case for this. Now do you have any questions about things that appeared so far otherwise I will go on with the small demo. Okay I don't see any questions so let's see if screen sharing works. So I will quickly demonstrate what I previously showed in the presentation slides. First we start with the default contract file and the GUI argument, nothing will happen at first. Then we switch to the tab so we can run the Ophono scripts. So first we enable the modem Ophono will open up and then we can set it online, now it's ready and then we can use it to for example send SMS. Here we can enter the virtual sender and send the message and then in theory it should appear here and we can answer to it and now it wasn't very well available so I will do it again. You can see that something happens here in the AT command so the message is set to the modem. That's pretty much it for now.