Well I see we have a packed house today. We have a lot of important information for you And I'm glad you're here. Good afternoon everyone and welcome to one police plaza Now the team you see assembled here are those who have been elected and Sworn to keep the citizens of New York City safe and this team is starting off the honorable mayor Eric Adams Police Commissioner Kieshant Sewell First Deputy Commissioner Edward Caban Chief of Department Jeffrey Madri Chief of Crime Control Strategies Michael LaPetrie Chief of Detectives James Essig Chief of Patrol John Shell Chief of Transit Michael Kemper and last but not least chief of Housing Martin Matarazzo now you all know it's been one year in which this administration has taken the leadership with a mandate a Mandate to reduce crime and they are here to report their progress With that I will turn it over to the honorable mayor of New York City Eric Adams. Thank you Thanks so so much and thank all of you for joining us today. How you doing Marsha and the The real call at the beginning of the year was clear it was about making sure our city was safe and we had to put together the right team to do so and It was important to me as we dealt with crime in our city We also had to deal with the morale issue and had to find the right leader that could give the morale that was needed to the men and women who put on a uniform and also strategically Impact on ensuring our city was safe but without using some of the abusive of forms of Public safety that we saw in the past and we found that in our commissioner and I cannot thank Commissioner Sewell enough for taking on this awesome Responsibility, you know major sports players with state. They don't want to play in New York the onslaught of criticism critique Observation makes this a challenging occupation and there's no greater big leads in the sports of public protection then the New York City Police Department and Commissioner Sewell came in She put together a real plan a real plan of operation and she built a team around and that team is here today And there are many more levels that we're going to have to Go through should we get the product that we know New Yorkers deserve, but let's be clear. We entered this season of public protection and January 1st of 2022 Crime was on a trend increasing upward We're leaving 2022 with crime is trending downward and many of the major areas of some of the major initiatives that the police commissioner put in place We're seeing significant Decreases in shootings homicides apprehensions apprehensions of guns It's clearly 27 year high We're looking at some of those major issues around public safety That we knew we had to tackle, but we're doing far more than just the role of policing under the leadership of Deputy mayor Phil Banks. We're seeing a real Coordination between all of our law enforcement entities one team Understanding that the New York City Police Department cannot and should not have to do this alone Historically whenever we talked about public protection, we only talked about the NYPD. That was unfair It was not right and we have other law enforcement entities that are now playing a major role as we tackle public protection In the city. I'm extremely proud of this team. We are not spiking the ball We know we have more to do New Yorkers must be safe Based on the stats and they must feel safe based on what they're seeing. That is my obligation to ensure that safety is Felt and Actual and that is the direction. We're moving in and every day. We're out in the subway system We're walking our streets. We're engaging with our police officers and we're making sure we move towards a city That is as I always stated the prerequisite to our prosperity public safety and lastly I want to commend the men and women over our new years I don't believe people fully understand what it was like to secure the safety of hundreds of thousands of people while you have an incident with three officers or Assaulted by individual who had one intention and that's the harm men and women who protect us They immediately Brought that threat under control. They apprehended the guilty the person who committed the crime. They discharged one round Keeping in mind how many people were in the areas. They hit this the suspect They subdued him. He was arrested the three officers received health care from our expert Expert medical facilities you saw our city operate at its best and they continue to go to protect 100,000 of people who were there as the festivities Continue that is the quality product that this commissioner has produced and this agency has continued to put out Day in and day out and so we're going to continue do our job this amazing team that's here is a Symbol of the years and years of knowledge of law enforcement and how we can continue to evolve Our police agencies to the level that all of you expect and our overall public protection Apparatus apparatus, so I want to thank them personally for their commitment For continue to move forward through some very challenging times COVID monkey pox losing two officers at the beginning of the January I'm having a number of officers who were shot during that same period and in spite of all of that They continue to put on that uniform every day and run towards danger To protect our city from those who have made up their minds to hurt innocent people I look forward to my conversation this afternoon with my lawmakers in Albany as we continue to lean into how do we Continue on the gangs that this administration is attempted to do around public protection So again, thank you for coming out today, and I'm going to turn it over to the police commission of the city of New York Keisha on Sewell. Thank you very much, mr. Mayor, and thank you all for being here. Good afternoon From the start of 2022 the NYPD was focused on combating crime and violence in this city Shootings in 2021 were at a 15-year high and had been climbing since 2018 In the beginning of 2022 our year-over-year crime spike was at about 45 percent and at times 48 percent We have steadily and diligently cut into that increase and we are now sitting at about 22 percent We knew we would not turn this city around on a dime We did not stumble into these decreases. They were not happenstance We strategized, planned, deployed, recalibrated when necessary, conducted investigations, and relentlessly followed up Beginning in January with the mayor's blueprint to end gun violence In February our supplemental deployment strategy March our subway safety plan, neighborhood safety teams, initiatives to improve quality of life and business recovery Continuing into the year our transit safety plan, our summer violence reduction strategy, and our year-end crime mitigation strategy that we announced back in September We added additional investigators to our precinct and warrant commands to be able to quickly detect patterns Identify subjects and apprehend offenders We deployed foot patrols into our commercial districts shifted resources where we saw crime spikes Focusing on the drivers of crime, those that commit crime, and holding them accountable We've had highs and lows, but these decreases represent people Fewer victims and a safer city New Yorkers in the fourth quarter of 2022 major crime was down in New York City In the current seven and 28 days major crime is down in New York City These decreases are the direct result of a years-long strategy The dedication Commitment and sacrifice of the women and men of the NYPD Our partners in the MTA, local, state, and federal, public, and private, and the communities we serve We know we have a lot more work to do We know there will continue to be challenges because that is the nature of our profession The NYPD is confident of the future of this department and our city We will never stop holding those accountable who continue to prey on the people in businesses of New York City With this momentum going forward. We are confident in the coming year We expect to see significant progress and the continuance of the crime trends that we're seeing I'd like to turn it over now to our recently promoted Chief of Department Jeffrey Magery Thank You Commissioner and good morning everyone We have a talented team of police executives assembled who will discuss some of the challenges of 2022 and how this department and our members courageously went into the streets and remove numerous guns address quality of life issues And solved other problems within various communities Officers are the best and I commend them for the work that they do This department works best and performs at its highest levels when it leverages initiatives with many partnerships working with our district attorneys a local clergy a crisis management teams Community-based organizations and grassroots leaders from every corner of this city is how we will increase public safety And a great example of that in 2022 was Labor Day weekend with through our partnerships with Various organizations who worked as one team and we kept the community safe While people were able to go out and enjoy Celebrating their heritage and their culture We will continue to build on the neighborhood police and philosophy and through our youth coordination Officers increase our reach into the lives of young people to prevent negative encounters with the criminal justice system For example our options program where we work with young people to provide life skills Financial literacy and teach them to avoid certain pitfalls. This is what we'll do to continue to connect with our youth Enforcement is just one of our tools Being a resource to our city and being helpful to our citizens is how we'll make our great city even better Partnerships are the key and it's how we'll increase public safety, which is the common goal of everyone That's my commitment and that's this department's commitment to work with established partners Seek out and build new partnerships and continue to be a useful resource to our collective village collective vision and knowledge and willingness to meet challenges head-on with viable solutions That's how we'll keep the city safe Thank you and now pass this over to the chief of crime control strategies Michael Patrick Thank You chief So as the commissioner said We saw 12 months of steady progress like to just discuss where we were Well, we've achieved and the direction this agency is heading We finished the fourth quarter of 2022 with the most successful fourth-quarter shooting reduction in the Comstat history Shooting incidents in the fourth quarter were down 32% With 147 fewer people shot in New York City Shootings were down 11 of the last 13 weeks Major crime was down the last seven weeks Every borough in regards to violence experienced significant double-digit decreases for the quarter for the year 268 less incidents with over 300 people With over 300 fewer people shot like the commissioner said But a 15-year high in 2021 With a lot of work to do and the first few months of this year We're trying We saw increases in shooting for the first quarter. We were up 37 incidents with 44 more people shot Took time to put into place new strategies new deployment who the drivers of violence are Connectivity between not just precincts not just geographic But city-wide connectivity who bore the brunt of The shooting increase for the first quarter Was to borrow the Bronx 35% of all the shootings for the first quarter occurred in the Bronx So what was the plan? commissioner discussed the plan We moved not hundreds, but thousands of offices into Bronx both on the patrol level The detective level our technology increased substantially in the Bronx We moved 75 cameras approximately 75 cameras multiple mobile plate readers into the Bronx So gave it an analysis. I gave it a plan now. I'll give you the results of the plan from year-end from May 1st the Bronx soar the largest Roar Decrease and shootings in the city they went from worst to the best in October there was 13 shooting incidents in the Bronx That is the best October The best October that the Bronx has ever had in the Comstad history What's the correlation? Precision policing and the men and women in the Bronx were doing the police work 30% of all the gun arrests in the city are coming from the Bronx like to get into gun arrests Mayor said it 27 year high 27 year high in Gun arrest in New York City go back 27 years and see how many more shooting incidents we had and that also goes for our Seven major arrests right at 21 though 21 years ago. We had approximately 30,000 more arrests It's precision Three-quarters of our gun arrest are being made by our patrol housing offices in our transit offices We're doing it better more precise than we've ever done it in the past our decline Prosecutions are the lowest level since my office has been tracking from 2015 So who are we arresting with guns out there? Well, I could tell you we're resting convicted felons people were previously Open felonies, but I want to speak about one specific arrest and Show you the data behind this arrests So this individual I'm talking about is one of the 750 people that the NYPD has identified That's basically responsible for 30% of the shootings in any role over the past two years So this person arrested in November. It's a known crew member. He's also a convicted felon. He was arrested twice Within one year Those two gun arrests were then consolidated Into one court disposition He was arrested in November. He's now remanded again. He's one of these 750 people So we know what crew he belongs to we also know the areas that that crew frequents. It's four precincts across Those four precincts in the same period last year had 22 shootings after his gun arrests. We've had five Patrol borough Brooklyn South for that period has had 12 total shootings This year compared to 33 last year. That's precision policing. That's the men and women of patrol borough Brooklyn South arresting the right person in the right place with a firearm Seven major struggles. No doubt about it We've had a tough year But I like the way it's trending For the fourth quarter we're down 2% but more importantly for December we were down 12% those decreases continue 1007 major arrests by NYPD members again. That's a 21 With substantially more seven at that time Just to get into some of the crime robbery Doesn't robbery arrest this year For the fourth quarter. We're basically flat. We struggled for the first three quarters with an increase of 37% So who's my robber? Well, he's a convicted felon 20. He or she is a convicted felon 25% of the time I also have an open felony 25% of the time 20% 20% of our robbery arrest in quarter four were of individuals under the age of 18 For the year 17% on 18 Robbing New Yorkers Statistics are out there the trends continue with 10% of our shooting victims 10% of our shooting victims in New York City The only demographic Ages up substantially every other age category is down when you track it between 10 and 17 and 18 and 24 and so on 43% of our robberies this year We have an arrest affected with another 7% of wanted individuals so approximately 50% of our robberies will be Connected to an arrest burglary Another crime fueled by recidivism. I'm just going to give you the numbers 439 people have been arrested for three or more burglaries this year To 196 in 2017 and guess what half of them are convicted felons and Not a lot of them are in jail 1200 individuals Arrested for a burglary this year 1200 went on to commit another felony within 60 days in 2017 it was 300 That's recidivism and these are arrests these are Investigations where we think somebody's doing the handcuffs are going on these people it's arrests I'm sorry Mike. Can you repeat that? Approximately 1200 people Have been arrested for a burglary this year that then go on to commit another felony within 60 days in 2017 the exact numbers 312 Grand Larceny's we've struggled all year and we know what that's fueled by it's been well documented and that's retail theft And I you know a lot of you know if not all of you the mayor's had his summit. I've had multiple meetings multiple meetings With large stores small stores along with the police commissioner along with everybody up here 63,000 shoplift complaints this year We arrested 327 people 327 people that account for 30% of all the arrests of all the arrests 327 people have 30 or 30% of our 22,000 Half of them are almost half our convicted felons and guess what? 235 of them so 235 out of 327 are walking around the streets of New York right now guess doing what? Unfortunately making stores close or make families wait 15 minutes 20 minutes to get something unlocked because there's not a lot of consequences So I just like to reiterate we have a lot to do we've made we've made steady progress and we will continue to make steady progress. Thank you Thank you Detectives James Essek good afternoon everybody Chief Lopetri spoke about the reduction in homicides and shootings in 2022 There are many contributed in fact this to that But a very significant one is the amount of arrests detective are making for these offenses in 2022 1411 arrests were made which were linked to shootings and homicides Considered it in the prior two years when we had more shootings and homicides. We made 1263 in 2021 961 in 2020 and 840 in 2019 Our clearance rates for shootings and homicides are at or near all-time highs With the current year murder clearance rate of 65 percent Which was 58 percent in 2021 and in 2020 it was 52 percent Unofficially do you see do you see our clearance rate including prior year murders cleared in 2022? Will be 83 percent or the fifth highest since records will be in kept in 1990 Our shooting clearance rates for this year are 44 and a half percent is the third highest in 15 years this while dealing with additional challenges of master perpetrators use of autos Scooters and the district attorneys demanding more evidence Additionally our long-term investigations have had a significant impact on violent crime and narcotics our strategy in long-term cases is to mantle dismantled drug crews most times based on community complaints and Target the drivers of violence are organized gangs and narcotics enterprises Whether it be on the street in housing developments or in residential areas Last year we had a hundred and forty three long-term cases of which forty two Were known violent street gangs this resulted in 667 arrests included in those arrests were seizures of 1,373 kilos of cocaine Three kilos of crack cocaine with an estimated street value of forty eight point two million 166 kilograms of heroin which is 460,000 glassing envelopes with a street value of 13 million 5,000 pounds of marijuana street value of 10 million 473 firearms 13.2 million dollars in US currency and what's being described to as many as the number one public health crisis in America We seized 485 kilos of fentanyl with the street value of 19.4 million dollars. I'll now like to turn it over to Chief John Scheldt the chief patrol Good afternoon, everybody. I just want to touch on a couple successes for 2022 and shake strategy shifts that we Patrol took took part in first and foremost our neighborhood safety teams that were established last March We meet 431 guns off the street One out of every four encounters by neighborhood safety teams Resulted in a firearm being removed from the street quality life initiatives Big component big strategy what we focused on We focused on illegal bikes Ghost cars paper plates ATVs to quality life issue But also was conflated with some of our drivers of violence people doing robberies on motorbikes ATVs Ghost cars with paper plates We really hit this hard as a police department as an agency We took over 16,000 illegal motorbikes ATVs and ghost cars off the street over six thousand arrests over 20,000 summons this We listened to our business improvement districts who complained about illegal peddling illegal legal vending We seized over 30 million dollars in retail value of high-end counterfeit property We took 35 cannabis trucks off the streets of Times Square at the request of business improvement district We took a look at our homeless initiative We visited over 4,100 homeless encampments And we cleaned up over 2,400 owes and what's key to this is We did it with our new inter-agency Partners in city in the city And the mission is clear one city One mission to get this city back on track Lastly Strategies in deployment Technology that we already have Information sharing merging of resources field communications We put together an apprehension strategy in the last quarter of this year. That has paid great dividends in regards to apprehending people who committed one two three four five robberies at a time in multiple boroughs and It had a definite impact on The decrease in the fourth quarter we explained here in the crime trend and down and these is these Strategies are just gonna get better and better in 2023. Thank you Chief of transit Michael Kemper good afternoon. We ended the year with a 29.6% increase in crime versus last year That said we ended the year with some very encouraging successes. Let me say this 2020 and 2021 were extraordinarily challenging years in the subway system due to pandemic related complexities So to give us a better view of where we stand we looked at 2019 in prior pre-pandemic years when comparing 2022 crime versus 2019 subway crime was down 7.7% and it was the lowest since 2014 matter of fact when comparing 2022 overall crime in transit to pre-pandemic years. It was the third lowest year in over 25 years I'm sorry chief. Can you say that again? Yes, sir When comparing 2022 crime versus 2019 Subway crime was down 7.7% and it was the lowest since 2014 matter of fact when comparing 2022 overall crime in transit to pre-pandemic years. It was the lowest year in over 25 years and let me say this That's where the record stopped If I'm a better man, it would have been much longer than 25 years In relation to safety in the subway system This administration has made historic commitments starting with the mayor's subway safety plan And then with the cops cameras and care program more offices have been assigned to patrol the subway system than in recent history 1,200 additional offices patrol the subway system each day and this plan is paying dividends From January 1st to October 24th crime in the subway system was up 41.6% as a result of the investment and starting on October 25th to the end of the year December 31st Major crime in the subway system was down 4.6% versus 2021 which includes a 28.8% reduction in robberies So we went from a very concerning increase in crime for the first 10 months of the year to a sharp turnaround During the last nine weeks of the year in fact This was the lowest nine-week year-end period for major crime in transit since 2009 Our team has worked hard this year over 1.5 million train patrols were performed by NYPD officers Enforcement was up in all areas in the transit system Arrests were up 47% with a 38% increase in robbery arrest and an 18% increase in felony assault arrest 35 people were arrested for illegally possessing 37 guns in the subway system this year a 21% increase versus last year And our cops have done so much more from jumping on the tracks to saving people Saving over those victims rendering aid to people in need your cops stepped up to every challenge that came their way It is our goal and is our mission to reduce crime Keep people safe and ensure people feel safe when using the subway system. Thank you I'll now pass it off to Chief Martin Madarazzo chief of housing. Thank you as we closed 2022 the Housing Bureau met a number of challenges head-on by reducing both shootings and homicides While at the same time increasing gun arrests and addressing quality of life issues our officers Delivered a high level of service that had a positive impact on overall public safety for the residents When analyzing violent reduction within the housing Bureau Housing saw a 14% reduction in shootings and a 50% decrease in homicides Homicides across the city are down 13% Driven enlarge by the reduction experience in nature A large portion of this crime reduction strategy is the removal of illegal firearms The housing Bureau has remained steady in its commitment to getting illegal guns off the street and out of our developments in 2022 318 firearms have been removed resulting in 324 individuals charged with possession Leading the charge is PSA 3 and ST team with 52 of those guns as Our focus is eyeed for reduction in violence We understand and I have heard firsthand from many residents the continued need for quality of life enforcement They say they want to see the cops out there and they want to see us addressing quality of life issues as a result Our PSA's have collectively issued over 5,000 sea summons is and old summons is this is a 164% increase from last year Included in these complaints are the reckless use of dirt bikes and ATVs in response We have seized 629 unregistered vehicles in the year ahead We look to continue this downward trend in violence as we step forward into 2023 we will remain steadfast and our violence and crime reduction efforts and We'll continue to increase our community engagement making New York City housing safe for all. Thank you We're gonna have Q&A just want to make it clear that we're gonna take off-topic questions But for the mayor they'll be on topic only off-topic questions including what we're doing here But for the mayor on topic only lieutenant work together as a city This team that is in place now is a dynamic team and we expect to see continued progress into 2023 I think the commissioner and I we have both made it clear What our thoughts are in that area? But I think it would be a grave danger if we believe that's the magic bullet I've stated it over and over again the bottleneck in of the criminal justice system The failure to put trials in place in an Expeditious manner The recidivism of people carrying crimes over and over again I'm going to return to Albany this year to add on to the success We've had last year to talk about things like how do we look at recidivism of the numbers are chief Was pointed out of there's a small number of New Yorkers that are repeated offenders and Our focus is to lean into those areas. We agree on and I'm looking forward to the conversation I'm going to have with the leaders of Albany as we talk about of these issue But it's more than just Judicial discretion it is a criminal justice system. That's producing a bad product that allow in dangerous people to Continue to go into on our on our streets, but let's be clear This month alone. It's about trends. How are we trending? Shootings are down Homicides are down burglaries are downs of robberies Are downs hate crimes are down this team is trending in the right Direction and we want to continue that and having a good legislative Session is going to assist us in carrying out this function a national problem And I cannot continue to share with people the role social media is playing on the spreading of some of the ills We are witnessing in our society of you're seeing the videos over and over again of individuals Walking in stores all over the country taking what they want and walking out of destroying industries of many of our train out chain Stores and establishments are looking to relocate because it is just no longer profitable and as it was mentioned I'm having to wait to have your items unlocked to watch our shelves emptied with supplies It's a real problem. So we brought together under the leadership of the deputy mayor of public safety Brought together all the different individuals who participate in retail and we're looking at how do we tackle this problem head-on How do we deal with those two different elements? There's one element They're doing it out of what they believe are necessity We want to identify them and give them the help they need if someone is stealing because they don't have food We want to show them that they are ways to get food if you're stealing because you have a drug problem We want to direct you to the drug assistance that you need, but then it's there are criminal Enterprises that are stealing and selling online We were successful in partnering with the attorney general We want to zero in on those individuals so that we can do a full scale takedown of those operations But the goal is to stop the retail theft that has really become pervasive Over the last few years and that is what this department is doing with our partners and the other law enforcement entities And our merchants we want them to play a Bigger role in doing so by using some inappropriate technology that could identify the repeated offenders and abusers Right, so Tina, it's a 500 won arrest 431 physical guns recovered. This all took place over 411 incidents Yes, and we and I hear that often and I believe people believe that Policeman is one aspect the neighborhood safety teams not only made gun arrests But they made a rest of bad people and if you only look at well how many guns that you take off the street You're going to miss how many other crimes they stopped they're not out there saying hey I see a burglary. I'm going to walk past it because it's not a gun. No, that's not how it's done second thing is we remove the Unpredictable aspect of policing when we stated that we were going to dismantle plain clothes offices Dismantle those other aspects of the surprise element We told the bad guys if you don't see a blue and white car you can carry out your deeds We've taken that away that neighborhood safety team play brings back to Unpredictable aspects of the good guys. This is a huge win for us It was the best thing that we could do and I really commend the commissioner for doing a proper truck proper training Getting the best offices for it and those 500 guns mean 500 people are less likely to be shot Great job on the behalf of those men and women who decided to pursue those guns I Number one when I was a rookie police officers We did something called AP's in the subway system where we had mandatory overtime every night We rode the trains. I believe it's eight at night to about four in the morning Because we had to get crime under control And so the goal here the commissioner was clear that we were going to stabilize the actual crimes and the Perception of crime the feeling that people were unsafe and nothing helps that feeling more than seeing that person in the blue Uniform we all know it. I feel it when I'm on the system and we know the important part of it once we stabilize our subway system and get the a normality of Just violent behavior that was on our system. We had everyone from mental health illnesses We had encampments what you don't see anymore because of the commitment we we put in place We had a total disregard for the passengers and we had to bring in the team to Stabilize that once we stabilize that we're going to right-size under chief Kemper. We we're going to right-size Exactly what all of our districts and need we're going to right-size and make sure the right leadership is there the commissioner Put is putting new leadership in certain areas and you're going to see a normalizing of the number of people who are there But we also want our officers to patrol we want them moving about we want to use the camera system We have an amazing camera system and our subway system Achieve banks is looking at some other leaders on how to use that technology better We were not using that technology where officers are not located Well, we can use it to identify people who are potentially committing crimes or creating dangerous environments That is something that chief Kemper is looking at and yes, we need more offices the commissioner Identified early that the problem of bringing officers on had a lot to do with the examination Decast was not moving at the right level because of the sites that were needed the commissioner came over the new way of really increasing the number of police officers to come out on of get through the academy and Be on patrol and we know we're going to continue to beef up those numbers We need to continue to beef up the number of men and women who are retiring because they reached their 20 years I'm sorry Beyond the current Yes, we have to we have to continue to recruit get through the Application processes and system to have a quality officer like that rookie law officer. We saw respond on the New Year's Eve and so we were going to continue to recruit and increase and reach out to what I'm really pleased about Continued the diversity of our department. We want the department to reflect the diversity of the city So yes, we have a class that's going in we have a class that's just recently graduated and now we want to continue to build out That pipeline Well first to deal with the The my meeting today, I had a great meeting last week in Albany with the leader of the Senate and the leader of the assembly and I keep saying over and over again There's a belief of that. We are Rivers apart and we just we aren't we had I believe one of the most successful years in Albany Then in any mayoral administration out of the 10 things using that as an example We we received eight of them and one of them we got some changes on so I need to look at discovery My DA's my defense attorneys Legal aides everyone is talking about the discovery rules and impacts on that we need to think differently about that I need to look at how do we move cases through courts the court system in a more expeditious fashion? So that people don't spend years on Rikers Island waiting for for a trial And then we want to come together and look at how do we deal with recidivism? The governor and I had a conversation about that had a conversation with the leaders and we say let's get in the room Let's look at those number of people who are repeated offenders And how do we zero in on them to complement the reforms that were already put in place? My focus is clearly on the recidivist dangerous people who have made up their minds They're going to prey on innocent New Yorkers And if we can walk out of the room with a real plan on how to deal with those recidivists I think it's a real W for the city Communicated this morning with the mayor of Chicago. She shares my Frustration in anger over what is happening to cities across America, and I'm going to continue to say El Paso should not be going through this New York Washington, Houston Chicago None of us should be going through this. This is just unfair To the mayors of these cities that they're experiencing this I believe what the president is put in place is going to assist With dealing with the flow of migrants We were receiving a large number from the groups that he's now going to include in the Venezuelan a Part of this he's going to increase other groups in that which is very important But the reality is we have a crisis at our border that crisis must be addressed and We cannot continue to ignore it and I think all of our partial partners on a national level Must address this so the American people won't have to experience this on a local level No, I don't think the term is disappointment I think that he heard a mayor life foot he heard a mayor Bowser He heard mayor Adams and he realizes that there are things we must do and I just don't believe This is the end of the sentence. This is a comma We need to continue that sentence so the ends with an exclamation point that we have resolved our Decade of border crisis. This is a real problem that we are facing and we need to raise that level of I believe what we need to do to resolve the issue We need to make sure that there's a decompression strategy That those who are here and who are coming here Being spread throughout the entire country not just in certain cities We need to make sure the funding is there So we're not taking away needed services from the residents of our cities And we need to make sure that we secured a border and do it in a in a humane way And this could be done. It could be done and it must be done so To give a little context to that The officers in that incident were responding to a violent fight among several people at that location During the time when an officer was trying to take police action and apprehend one of the people for that fight Someone interfered in that apprehension and actually struck our officer I don't think anyone or very few people who saw that video were not concerned the officer the force the officer used to Stop that interference in that arrest and to custodialize that person is what is under investigation We understand that our communities are very important in making New York City safe Immediately we made sure we addressed the concerns of that community the council members in that community We were on a call with that community yesterday We want to make sure that we do a thorough investigation. The officer has do he gets his due process But we take these things very seriously We suspended that individual as we determine whether he was in line with the policies and procedures and training in this police department And I think I think Rocco this you know, there's another part up to it as well And as I stated yesterday, I was horrified to see the way Well-trained officer would respond and it's incident like that but I was also horrified to learn that a young girl in that school was being jumped by two of the students and We have to dig deeper Into these incidents and I'm going to share with the commissioner my team today I'm going to go to Staten Island and I'm going to go visit that school The violence that that's coming from our young people the chiefs indicated Increasing a number of young people who are the victims of shootings increasing the young young people who are shooting Increasing young people who are participating in robberies. I see some of these videos and I'm really a Challenge not to just want everyone to see what we're seeing every day If people start to see with the commissioner and the chief of department chief of patrol When you see some of these actions when you see the just total disregard for human life It is really challenging To just know the impact of what the victims are going through and how these young people are destroying their lives And and what happened the I believe I believe that officer was wrong and I commend the police commissioner and the internal affairs bureau for taking swift action But let's peel that back. I You know that little baby was going to school and she was being jumped She was being jumped We can't normalize this we can't continue to ignore the violence that is really engulfing our young people We have to respond to that and so I'm calling all of my electives in that community I'm calling my religious leaders in that community. Let's get over to that school and find out what's going on That's an alternative school Those children are on a pathway if we don't intervene They are on a pathway of a career in violence and we have to stop it We give you those exact numbers with some of the money came from the governor She understood that we had to make sure our major artery was safe Both statistically and how people felt and I think that the chief of transit gave you the indicator How well we're doing and we want to do more But how well we're doing in driving down crime and we know that our subway a system We had a three three point nine million people who use that system highest number since the pandemic And when you look at the number of crimes, I think you said it was six How many crimes per day fell in six point four in two thousand twenty two six six point four We need to get rid of all those six point four I want to be clear because I don't want someone right in the next day that I'm dismissive of it We want all this six point four gone, but three point nine million people and I'm one of those riders, you know I have my metro card and I'm on that system and I'm watching how people are Responding to what they're seeing the visibility of officers. They're starting to regain trust in the system And so you cannot put a dollar amount on of people using our Transportation system because they don't do it out of out of luxury They do it out of necessity and we want to make sure it's safe, but we will give you those exact numbers Okay, thank you. Thank you


The following is a presentation of TFNN the morning market kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. I've always buzzed the chat in the air sitting here for Tommy O'Brien just a sudden switch to the last minute and of course I cannot do what Tommy does so well and give you all the fundamentals but let's just look at the markets as it stands right now I think we becoming somewhat vulnerable if you think either side is going to give in for this debate or debate this fiasco going on right now because it shouldn't be this should not have happened at all you've had since I think in February they started wanting to talk this is just ridiculous but that's the way it is in politics so here we are we're looking at the Dow which closed at thirty-five thousand two eighty six on Monday the futures right now are down a little bit not too bad down 71 at thirty-three thousand two ninety so the patterns that I like to look at let me just get this right here and we'll do it just as we're talking there we go so the patterns that I always like to look at a straight line up or straight line down an arch formation or a cup formation and those could be VJ formations where you go from one point down and then back again to that point or one point up with them back again most importantly when this lower goes straight line down there's just straight line down that's the first one it makes this inverted V shape pattern yes the second one this is the futures and this goes to peak A and a peak B gray A and gray B because you didn't have confirmation of the technicals being strong so it's a I'm not going to change it right now a and B still hasn't taken out the left side low so this is all valid this is another a right here it doesn't take it out the upside well what happens is in this particular technique well if I can just get that right back again oh did I just use it where did it go there is when you make this arch formation and failure to peak A or B this first or second highest peak after that low ball was made and you take out that left side low it can go quite a bit low but if you hold the left side low then you can actually make it a second arch formation I call that the lowercase H that goes to a lowercase M there you've got the H and you're making the M pattern and that just says it's going to be harder and harder to break above the left side high I'm talking about the futures right now and in this particular instance the high that would be in the futures would be the high of the 10th of May which is at 33,854 but there's a good chance that you're going to take out this left side low but wait a minute look at the E mini this is a continuous contract it's in straightening right now at 41 91 down 13.75 that made an alternate count F slash C but in the actual SPI itself there's no other way I can count this this is actually a peak C and in the Chapman methodology a bi-signal going to a bi-mode invariably will go to a D and then you've got to be careful so what I say to subscribers to my opening call that's my daily service here at the TFNN my newsletter I'm anticipating that either we have a little bit of a bounce today somehow other maybe hit the 40 for 20.72 level or just go under it for what I call a peak C1 and a peak C2 now why do I talk about that because I'm anticipating that there's going to be some conflagration going on politically and that this market is not going to like it over the next few days we've had some optimism but don't believe that come on anyone who says we're close to a deal you're never close to a deal until the deal is done and then there's all your compromises made so as far as I'm concerned this is a period fraught with a zigzag kind of move maybe like a yo-yo or a sine wave but in the dials case it's been making lower highs and lower lows in the S&P's been making higher highs and higher lows but I think that's about to change why because the QQQ remember the Chapman methodology we're always looking for a bi-signal to be upgraded to a bi-mode that can go to at least a D well there's your D a leg D as I talk right now 336.28 in the QQQ made a high yesterday of 338 I think it was yes 338.67 look at the end Q that is the futures made in a leg D even this morning it ran higher now it's down 57 at 13,846 so what am I anticipating I'm anticipating that even though the technicals in the index 100 this is the E-mini NDX 100 continuous contract I'm suspecting that we're going to at least get choppiness to come down towards the 13,500 we're at 13,844 right now that's going to be the big near-term test but I think we can go lower than that I think the upside is kind of limited for now I just don't know what's going to make the market suddenly break to the upside and if you're looking at the IWM which is the Russell 2000 this is trading down as 32 cents at 177.94 a much better action that we've then we've seen for a little while but not good enough because it's bumped into the resistance that was made with the high of the 18th of April and that was at 178.63 yesterday's high was 178.97 fractionally higher I'm calling that a leg C but most importantly it says that you're in a position right now where the technicals have improved a lot but the price hasn't gone even close to the 200-period moving average of 181.68 and that really is an issue I'm not even talking about the weekly chart which looks terrible and the monthly chart doesn't look very good at all now this is going to be the issue the gold right now is down 13 and we be looking at gold I see this peak D that was made in the Chevron methodology on the I think was the 1st of April let me just double-check on the 20 on the 3rd of May that's April 3rd of May 2000 and 2000 and go why is it so hard to see two thousand and eighty they are eighty five point four the following system two thousand eighty five point four unusual to have the futures having double tops like that made a peak D and I said if you measure the move the vertical move from the high that was made in April to the high that was made in May you'll see that the MACD was very weak the stochastic was very weak the on balance volume was good but it reversed immediately right at the ictus at that very moment that it made the high the on balance volume made a high and then turned around so this is to me gold is pulling back very sharply I'll just do silver now we may as well silver trading right now down 39 cents at 2347 right on the 200 period expenditure moving average not looking very good at all ha dollar the dollar right now is trading up 31 ticks at 103.56 and you can see that the dollar is really it's had a good move from one 100.79 to where it is right now at 103.56 remember the dollar in the hundred area to really get a significant move you need to move about four or five points so this is so far quite good but not great the 200 period moving average 103.76 I think that's going to be tagged and that's going to be an issue because I think it corresponds exactly to what we're looking at in the market and that just tells me that we've got to be somewhat careful here I'll just do this as we're about this is here we go market morning market kickoff show for Tommy O'Brien I'm sitting in Basil Chapman I used to do the tiger to fix our coming up at 10 o'clock so I'm sitting here and the PLT the balance is down 34 ticks at 120 not very obvious if you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter you should try Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals sign up for rocket equities and options report today with a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your subscription today visit the front page of TFNN comm TFNN educating investors everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence this mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock 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added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of TFNN comm folks we're back and my pleasure actually once again haven't done it for a little while to have Kevin Hings on the line Kevin how are you good morning Basil good to talk to you yeah it's very good to talk to you I was in Chicago a couple of weekends ago but unfortunately I never got to the city I was just in and out for a family event and didn't get I was so looking for I love Chicago I love the architecture of Chicago just didn't get to see the city but how are you I'm good Basil you know I'm looking at the market today that we're learning a couple things as we get through this right I'm going to give you and your viewers an actual positive outlook on the debt ceiling basil I read down to one real talking point and that is the spending caps it sounds like remember I spoke on the TD Ameritrade Network about the four major issues about the debt ceiling the COVID funds left over pulling those back the energy permitting streamlining the process that's what Joe Manchin is spearheading the work requirements for food financial and healthcare aid right I think those are all settled I think the spending caps is the last thing they're working on so I think it's a little more positive in terms of the debt ceiling and I think the market thinks that too because bonds would be rallying not selling off basil the VIX would be higher not where it is now so I think the market is discounting any problems with the debt ceiling even though politicians are screaming at the top of their lungs so the markets just not the market let's put it this way the market just doesn't believe them basil so so it means that it could continue like this almost until the last minute because that's kind of what politicians tend to do you know I was I was looking at the charts and if it wasn't for this discussion about the debt the limits etc there are there's a broadening out of the market as I see it and what's really important is the October low every time we get something like this one of the things that I've been looking at is we start to pull back but we pull back from a higher level so it makes that October low something really terrible has to happen to get down there and I just at this particular point I don't see it so I'm kind of in your camp but politicians like to wait until the very last minute before they give in so I think we might still have some choppiness over the week well what what are you going to are the particular stocks that you're looking at right now that earnings etc that are also going to give you a tell well I think here's what I think you have to look at I think in video earnings tomorrow after the close are very important not only because you know AI is such a buzzword topic right now with all these companies but I don't know how much it's going to show up on their bottom line and video has run an incredibly long way it's incredibly overbought it's been soft the last couple days but you know the NASDAQ in general has run a long way and has been overbought so I think the bigger risk to this market is not the debt ceiling I think it's the fact and James Bullard alluded to it yesterday Basil and that is inflation data is not going down if you look at personal income and outlays the data coming out Friday all the consensus expectations for that number are the year-over-year headline up from 4.2 to 4.3 the core PCE year-over-year is flat at 4.6 for the third month in a row that's what the expectations are so I think the bigger risk to this market is what James Bullard alluded to and the fact that inflation isn't coming down you'll you saw the wage inflation from the last payrolls number it was up it was higher year-over-year so inflation's not coming down at the rate they needed to or coming down at all bad look I think that is the biggest risk to this market right now not the debt ceiling if you look at the average price of an automobile sale I think what a 48,000 this is that's a very high number so that means that the the people are prepared to put more money to work but that also adds to this inflationary aspect doesn't it well look at used car prices on the last CPI number up 4.4% so used car prices are still out of control on the upside they've come down slightly but they just reignited to the upside even though new cars were down slightly used cars are still very high and going higher so I think there's still inflation in the pipeline but it's it's it's plateaued I guess that's some good news but the Fed is looking for much better than plateauing as you know Basil what's a stock so you're gonna be talking about this this afternoon and your show and folks if you want to know about options this is a fantastic show to listen to what what are you gonna be talking about yeah earnings today in Palo Alto networks that come out after the bell today earnings in cold that come out before the open tomorrow and then toll brothers housing that come out after the bell today so three good socks coming out with earnings either after the bell today or tomorrow morning before the open so yeah we've got a great show plan today yesterday we covered Lowe's and Dick's Sporting Goods so those were very interesting discussions they have we'll have more of those today Basil and tall brothers of course defying everything that you'd think with the high rates tall brothers has had a fantastic move even just this year alone going from 40 to 54 that's a big percentage move yeah I listen I think housing is yeah I believe it's my personal belief basil that since the housing crisis in 2008-9 that were extremely low in terms of housing inventory so I think when rates spike higher a queue forms for housing it doesn't they don't go away they I think they they they just wait buyers wait and when when rates stabilize or come slightly down they come flooding back into the market I think that's why you're seeing a big recovery in a lot of the home bill there's basil yeah I think you've been pointed a whole bunch of things that are really important so I'm gonna be watching this very closely but you're probably correct in the just isolating and then just saying to yourself they're just one or two factors that need to be really really discussed in terms of the debt limit and I think we'll be watching that very closely because the market is on edge here you can see it kind of wants to go up and then it wants to go down and then some sectors like the semiconductors have done very well like you mentioned and video and that's just telling you that there is demand out there but it's I think at this point it's still very selective yeah you know I think this is a market that's trading in different ways I mean just look at the last week basil footlocker down significantly 19 and Dick sporting goods sell off with footlocker but but Dick sporting goods was able to beat on earnings and reaffirm guidance and put up pretty good numbers so yeah I think every stock in earnings season is its own mini story we put those all together and we form the macro look at this market but it right during earnings season it's made up of a bunch of little stories I think tomorrow in video is a key driver remember this is a market that's rally on the back of very few names right yes video is one of those names I think that's a key number tomorrow after the bell basil and also and really is telling us as you say AI but it's also a part auto it's it's in every area there's oh yeah that is important and maybe it's just gotten a little ahead of itself so we'll be watching exactly I'm really looking forward to your show I think you're gonna pinpoint a bunch of things that people can actually do to be prepared for it thank you so much Kevin great to speak with you and have a good day thanks for having me I'm bad love a great day thank you folks we'll be back Basil 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think or swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com folks we're back market is open vassal champion here for Tommy O'Brien this is morning market kickoff time and what we're looking at talk about kickoff let me just go right here to the doll the doll did I type that just type it in the game right there dollar I end here you there it goes the doll is down 152 with thirty three thousand 128 right on the 200 period exponential moving average this is important because it's starting to weaken the daily and now the month the yeah the weekly chart the nine is still over the 14 but really close to turning down this is going to be a very important week I would say for the market overall looking at the S&P the S&P cash right now is down 20 at 41 73 now what I'd said earlier on and I'll say it again is in in my work that peak G in the chapter we methodology almost it's like a right arm extension it's really not like a rogue wave because it wasn't in one sweep to the upside was three bars with a doji candle at 41 86.92 on the 1st of May then a pullback made a lower low and if it didn't that would be different but it did and that means we have to start a brand new buy mode because and PG there's no H so you have to see what's the wave count so wave count as I see it is a B and this is a C there should be some attempt to get very close to the high that was made I've got it in the spine let me just give you the spy figure right now of 4 20 point 72 that was the high of two days ago three days ago and this is going to be important because some of it is a little strange I had a question that in when does it give you the exact question because I'll do it more in my show coming up at 10 o'clock but it's a very good question the question is Basil where in your sequence of identified peaks or patterns or price movement to buy signals typically turn into a buy mode doesn't require a particular configuration of stochastic I'm so pleased you saw that in fact I didn't see that very last part even though I'd written down here for a really good example of a failure pattern so let me explain what I'm looking at this is still early in the game I've got a buy sequence that went to a buy mode because the MACD and this is the S&P of the spy daily because the MACD turned up positively the stochastic ran over 80% went to 88% after the peak B we broke above peak B in a quite a strong move the on balance volume is good everything here is suggesting even though we've got all this bad news sitting potential bad news out there with the market and really not sure what to do which way but there are a couple of areas that have shown strength but in this particular instance there's no other way I can count this as a peak C it could fail it's really unusual to fail at a peak C when everything is in buy mode sequence and I'll explain it best because I had a question could I look at Pfizer and Pfizer if you look at the weekly chart of Pfizer let me just get that to work there it is click click okay you see this weekly chart right I've got an up arrow where the MACD turned around sharply the stochastic turned around from under 20% to under 10% even maybe 8% and then saw to the upside on balance volume went up the nine-period moving average eventually crossed positive so it went peak A doji candle pull back peak B pulls back and then it had a very strong move as the weekly chart of Pfizer PFE is a symbol and it went to a peak C I'm going to move it over like this let's just say I did not know but the MACD stochastic on balance volume is lagging but it's running nicely that should have gone to a D now the question came in and thank you so much for that for that full statement of your question because you really covered exactly what I look for so does it require a particular configuration of stochastic that was just one of the things that you pointed out well look the stochastic is very good and then what does it do it goes to a strong leg C pulls back it should go to a D but look what happened to the stochastic it went over 80% and then it starts to drop and that as long as the stochastic is holding over 80 80% that's a really good sign and if that continues to hold it should go to a D the stochastic failed look what happened right here in 2021 going into the December timeframe it goes through peak D and then an E look the MACD is strong look what happened to the stochastic on the on balance volume both of them very confirmed the rally to E and then pull back sharply stochastic went sharply under 80% very quickly and dragged the price down so that's what i'm looking at here that's why that peak C failed and made this v-shaped pattern the Eiffel Tower straight up and straight down took out the left side low so let's go back to what the question was and why i'm saying the spy so far with the stochastic even today with it pulling back the stochastic is at 88% and that's just suggesting that there is enough strength to have maybe just one pop it doesn't have to go to 420.73 to go to leg D if it fails in the 420.60s and then pulls back sharply with the stochastic then in the next couple of days going under 80% that'll be the trigger to say uh oh this is going to be a sell signal so that's what i'm looking at i hope i answer the question that a buy signal gets upgraded to a buy mode if either leg B is very strong the stochastic gets quickly to 80 maybe 84% leg D is good nine been moving average crosses over the 14 but it can fail it's not like it's a fail proof thing it's rare but it can fail but in this particular instance it's saying it's just enough strength to be able to try to get very close to the 420 maybe 50 level and then maybe we tank from there or that's a breakout to the upside so i'm looking at this a scan saying you tell me i've done my homework you tell me i'm prepared to go short but under certain conditions that's what i said to subscribers but we're waiting for those conditions to be met now the other thing is this um yeah okay so a couple of questions aqst aqst is a quest of therapeutics i have to tell you these biotechs i'm going to tell you a sub story right now in a moment about something that i we i planned i did everything i did we did the homework and we got in but then um i made the stop a little tight and we got stopped out and we could have had two positions in this and it would have done fantastic i'll get to that a little later on but aqst is 2.44 trading up two cents right now so i had done the homework on this i had a leg d uh back in early may i haven't looked at it since and look what happened it went buy signal to buy mode held the 200 feet moving average and that d is called leg d a floating letter until it makes a peak well it went leg d leg d right here at on the uh fifth of may it went to two thousand forty cents the very next day went to 240 cents so that's still a d that's still a d and then it makes a peak d because on the 11th it goes to 265 and the next day the highest 254 so that makes a peak you remember it's a floating letter until it makes a peak i'll be right back it's fall back and now it's having a really good rally and it looks like it wants to try to get to the 260s it's a 244 right now of two cents i'll be back in a moment we were looking at aqst of therapeutics i was down 133 18 we'll be right back you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by basal chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the chapman wave the chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices get the opening call newsletter by basal chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors the gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the london otc market the us futures market and the shanghai gold exchange the gold report tom obrien publishes his weekly gold report every monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the xAU hui gdx the dollar bonds the south african rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to tom obrien's gold report newsletter now at tfnn.com will the smp 500 continue to climb for bull trades on us large cap stocks in either direction trade spxl spu u or spxs directions daily smp 500 bull and bear leveraged etfs direction leveraged etfs an investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call<PHONE_NUMBER> or visit directioninvestments.com a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz i've always been the champion for tom obrien we're looking at a qsj a quest of therapeutics i suspect that it's going to try to tag that 260 level most importantly i had to raise this e was somewhere over here because i hadn't looked at it for a while now it's here so it's made a peak e it's still the mac d in the week is very strong the stochastic's pulling back to 74% on balance funds pulling back so i'm going to suggest that it's going to be in a trading range and i would know i'm going to draw this in we'll see we'll look at it again in a week or so maybe uh and i'm going to draw this in i'm going to say i suspect that it's in this rectangle formation and it could go a little higher if it goes to the 280 level that is really fantastic but i think it's going to store the 260s and then kind of hover around here be in the middle but it's acting extremely well looking out the mac d in the monthly chart has turned up the nine period moving average is still got a long way to go to get positive you'd have to see this up in the 380 420 area for at least a week maybe even two weeks for that mac d to so for the nine period moving average to cross positive but the stochastic is just starting to rally now so this is a a work in progress and it has these huge moves and then gives back a chunk of it the very next month so i suspect that at any point if it goes under $1.78 on a closing basis this move is done you have to now wait for the next big since it's biotech the next FDA or whatever it is the or a paper that comes out whatever it is it has to be a very influential in in carrying it for a sustained move now it's had the move it's digesting and maybe have one retest if you look at the technicals my my eye says that the left side high earlier in may and where we are right now the mac d is turning positive but it's still very weak stochastics way down 65 i think it's starting to it's running out of upside power so it can go a little higher but i think the two i wouldn't be surprised at the 254 areas strong resistance and it just needs a little more time that was that question so the question came in about pf and really i've had a lot of people ask me in the in the not the biotechs but in the pharmaceuticals what's happening there well there are certain drugs and certain medications that are coming coming about that already they could be life changing for a lot of people in the area of dietary aspects but in many areas and all the pharmacies especially the biotechs but especially the big pharmacies now that they've gotten deeply into this they some of them bought bought biotechs biotech companies so they've morphed a little bit from the classic pharmaceuticals so i'm looking at this and i would just recommend to you that in terms of getting into Pfizer the steepness of the move to the downside says if you're looking out maybe six to nine even say eight to ten weeks i can see that within the next two months there's a move towards the 42 43 area about four four points that's about 10 11 but there is a risk of a 10 to 15 pullback on the spike that you saw yesterday which looks purely instrumental in terms of news related spikes and that looks to me like a news related spike let's look at it again together maybe today's tuesday a little later in the week or maybe even next week because if it starts to hold about 3950 hits 40.20 that's a different thing altogether because now it's starting to make higher highs and higher lows right now it's just the start of a turnaround to the upside i like it looking out because it's not in the steep move at stake in time from the high in the 60s down to the low in the 20s that was made so in the 30s 30 the last over about 36 i i like what's going on but it's just a little early and it's very silly it doesn't look to me like there are fund managers that are getting into this for a sustained move i wouldn't be surprised if right now over the last three days they started nibble and that just says to me watch 37 the 37 is taken out on a closing basis i wouldn't touch it now but if it holds and it doesn't even get to 30 it's a 38 16 doesn't even hit 3750 this week instead it holds here then i start to look at it but think of it more as a longer term maybe almost a buy and hold but and i would do this i don't think you use options i would have looked at this as an option it's a 38 i would say a 40 call going into july or august to me that would be a really nice way to do it but you don't do that so i'm only mentioning it just as one of the possibilities um a question ar w r ar w r ar here we go that's what it is went to a g says she remember the chapter in mythology for quite a long while now in fact for about two or three years i've been saying a g stash seal turn it counter the chapter wave invariably goes to a d and there it is it went to the d in arrowhead farmer biotech it went to the d right there now i haven't been able to put a down arrow to say it's in a cell it's it's in a cell signal but not yet a cell mode but i am going to put this in because the magnies weeks the casting is weak nine-period moving average is very close to turning down that doesn't mean to can't rally i'm just saying that's the designation right now 38 well i'd say 30 a close above 38 70 in the next two days would be good but if it pulls back you got to watch the 35s break under 35 says uh oh not ready for prime time yet has his big spikes like a biotech and then pulls back next question came in could i look at oh the general market say let's look at the e-mini right now because i'm really do anything i'm on the show so i'm really trading anything like that so this you see the stochastic is at 87 88 percent the magnies good so i can say i'm going to put this up arrow to say it's in a bi signal and now i have to analyze to say is it in a bi mode so yes your peak a right now the one-minute chart a pulls back has another a right there gray a that becomes a b i like what i'm seeing and that's why i was saying to subscribers have patience i think there's going to be a flurry to the upside how much i just don't know yet but that's what i'm looking at so now i can drill this in as a cup formation right here cup formation right there uh it's a little late to do this but i will do that anyway normally what i would do is i go from the left side i'd look for either the ictus of the low to say hey i could see a bar symmetry with a number of bars on the left side equal number of bars on the right side i think we were already there so this one's already late as i'm doing it right here okay there it is so we've already surpassed that this i would have done a little more conservatively i would have taken it from that high um and that would have been just about right this is still a leg b we haven't made a peak because we're moving in 25 increments this is still a big i love what's going on right now i want to see a rally i need to see a rally because um what we're looking at in terms of um in terms of the marketplace the negativity is going to be there's a little rumors a rumor to the one side a rumor to the other side and that's what i'm looking at right now that i think we're in this flurry of activity with the yo-yo format and that just says rallies are bought sorry rallies are sold and declines are bought so selling gets pressure on the on the upside because you find cushioning but then it stalls because the rally gets filtered out and it starts to pull back i like what i'm seeing right now um oh is that the music no way yeah we go one more segment to go this is the morning market kickoff show tommy and brian can do it i'm sitting in basil chap and i will be back of course for my show at 10 check out my opening for my date and newsletter let's see the guys come back nice it's only 954 recipes not only down nine oh what a fascinating tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger's end hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders 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context of the S&P there's a chance and I have to say it's a chance but I there's no other way I can count this this is a buy mode at this particular point it can fail there should be at least a test of the high that was made on the 19th a couple of days ago of 4204 point sorry 4212.91 so that 4212.91 level let me just put it in 4212.91 we could get close we could break above it but my suspicion is that we could get somewhat close and then I think the market is vulnerable for a couple of days as the whole thing with the the death ceiling just no party is just going to give up anything until the last minute so that's the way I'm looking at it and as we get closer and closer so the market is going to be a little bit more nervous about what happens eventually of course we know that these things the default American we don't want to default so I'm looking at this and saying how does it how does the market react how does the market react afterwards so let's just forget about that right now look at levels to watch on the on the S&P where 4183 a close anytime in the next week going into Friday a close below 4 this is make it 4129 and make it 4130 a close below 4130 that's 53 points from here would say uh oh we're going into a digestive phase and not a major cell but just a kind of a digestive phase and that's what we're looking at a close above 4222 a kind of a breakout would be um I would I would have to say 4222 would suggest that the weekly charts are going to improve even more and that we could have a pullback at any point but it'll be the sideways digestive action so that's the way I'm looking at it right now I'm more positive than negative but on a very short term basis I'm ready to pull the short trigger haven't done that yet um and mostly we're in long positions so along the Dow actually from the October low and the new Dow a few times long from the October low and we have trading positions in an hour between that time so I'm going to be back with the Tiger Tech this is our check out my opening call be back with the news in a moment stay tuned and uh Dow is down again