Hi and welcome to the session. Today we will learn about ratio and proportion. Let us start by comparing two quantities. So here we have a basket A and basket B. The weight of basket A is 17 kgs and the weight of basket B is 22 kgs. Now we want to know that which basket is heavier. So for that we will subtract the weight of basket A from basket B that means this will be equal to 22 minus 17 kgs that is equal to 5 kgs. So this implies that basket B is heavier than basket A by 5 kgs. Two quantities of the same type compared by taking the difference between the two quantities. To compare the two quantities using the concept of ratio to find ratio of two quantities the two quantities are compared by division. Let us take the same example the weight of basket A is 17 kgs and weight of basket B is 22 kgs. So weight of basket A upon weight of basket B is equal to 17 kgs upon 22 kgs that means the ratio of weight of basket A is to weight of basket B is equal to 17 is to 22. So here we have compared the weight of basket A and basket B by division. And this symbol is used for ratio and is written as is to. So ratio is expressed is to be for any two numbers A and B in more points that is to find ratio of any two quantities the two quantities must be in the same unit. In the same unit then before finding ratio we must change them in the same unit. Now let us study the simplest form of the ratio. A ratio is said to be in the simplest form when the two terms of the ratio have no common factor other than one. For example suppose we are given a ratio 36 is to 64 and we need to find its simplest form. So 36 is to 64 can be written as 36 upon 64 which is equal to 9 upon 16. So this is 9 is to 16. So the simplest form of 36 is to 64 is 9 is to 16. And as we can see that both the terms that is 9 and 16 have no common factor other than 1. Now let us learn what are equivalent ratios. Now equivalent ratios can be obtained multiplying or dividing the numerator denominator by the same number. Here is one example for this we have the ratio 2 is to 3. Now 2 is to 3 can be written as 2 upon 3 and we can multiply the numerator by the number 5. So this will be equal to 10 upon 15 which is equal to 10 is to 15. That means the ratio 2 is to 3 is equal to 10 is to 15 and thus these both are equivalent ratios. Now let us move on to proportion. Four numbers a, b, c and d are said to be in proportion if the ratio of first two numbers that is a is to b is equal to the ratio of the third and fourth that is c is to d and this is written as a is to b as c is to d. This is the symbol for proportion and is read as s. Now suppose we are given two ratios 6 is to 18 and 8 is to 24. Now 6 is to 18 is equal to 1 is to 3 in its simplest form. Also a is to 24 is equal to 1 is to 3 in its simplest form. So that means the ratio 6 is to 18 is equal to the ratio 8 is to 24 and in proportion we can write it as 6 is to 18 as 8 is to 24. So from this we can say that these two ratios are in proportion and if two ratios are not equal then we say that the two ratios are not in proportion. Now in the proportion a is to b as c is to d first and the fourth term are known as extreme terms and second and the third term are known as middle terms. The topic of proportion must be clear to you. So now let's move on to next topic that is unitary method. In this method we first find out the value of one unit and then we find the value of required number of let's take one example for this. We are given the cost of 15 oranges as rupees 35 and we need to find the cost of 39 oranges. So here we have cost of 15 oranges equal to rupees 35. Now first of all we will find the value of one unit. So cost of one orange will be equal to rupees 35 upon number of oranges that is 15. Now we will find the value of required number of units that is 39 oranges. So cost of 39 oranges is equal to rupees 35 over 15 that is the cost of one orange into the required number of units that is 39. So this will be equal to rupees 91. Thus the cost of 39 oranges is rupees 91. This is known as unitary method. So with this we finish this session. Hope you must have understood all the concepts. Goodbye, take care and have a nice day.


This study aims to quantify the frequency of incidental hospitalizations over the first 15 months of the pandemic in multiple U.S. health care systems and apply electronic phenotyping techniques to improve COVID-19 hospitalization classification. The results show that a large proportion of SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive admissions were incidental, with straightforward EHR-based phenotypes differentiating admissions. This article was authored by Jeffrey G. Klan, Zachary H. Strasser, Megan R. Hutch, and others.


Item Number – SCP-294 Object Class – Euclid Special Containment Procedures – There are no standard special containment procedures on file for Item SCP-294. However, only personnel of security clearance level 2 or higher are allowed to interact with it. SCP-294 is currently being stored in the second floor personnel break room and is monitored by two guards of security clearance level 3 at all times. Description – Item SCP-294 appears to be a standard coffee vending machine, the only noticeable difference being an entry touchpad with buttons corresponding to an English QWERTY keyboard. Upon depositing 50 cents US currency into the coin slot, the user is prompted to enter the name of any liquid using the touchpad. Upon doing so, a standard 12-ounce paper drinking cup is placed and the liquid indicated is poured. 97 initial test runs were performed, including requests for water, coffee, beer, and soda, non-consumable liquids such as sulfuric acid, wiper fluid, and motor oil, as well as substances that do not usually exist in liquid state such as nitrogen, iron, and glass, and each one returned a success. Test runs with solid materials such as diamond have failed, however, as it appears that SCP-294 can only deliver substances that can exist in liquid state. It is of note that after approximately 50 uses, the machine would not respond to further requests. After a period of approximately 90 minutes, the machine seemed to have restocked itself. It is also interesting to note that many caustic liquids that would have eaten through a normal paper cup seem to have no effect on the cup's dispensed by the machine. Testing is ongoing. As suggested, SCP-294 was moved to the second floor personnel break room as a money-saving venture. Following incident 2941, guards were stationed at the item and a security clearance became necessary to interact with it. Agent SCP-294A, regarding incident 2941, on August 21st, 2005, Agent Joseph R. attempted to use item SCP-294 to obtain coffee during his allotted break time at 9.30 am. At the request of Agent R. to see what it would do, requested a cup of Joe from the item. Moments after confirming the selection, Agent Joseph R. began to sweat profusely and complained of dizziness before collapsing. After moving the unconscious agent to the infirmary, the medical team recovered the contents of the cup dispensed by item SCP-294, a combination of blood, tissue, and other bodily fluids. Testing revealed the DNA sequence of the biological material dispensed by SCP-294 matched that of Agent R. That agent made a complete recovery after four weeks of rest and intravenous hydration. X-rays and CAT scans showed no further signs of injury, and one of them was released. Both agents were reprimanded. Additional security measures for SCP-294 have been recommended. Addendum SCP-294F, after reviewing documentation on SCP-294, suggested testing SCP-294's ability to retrieve specific liquids from a distance. Addendum SCP-294H, with the overseeing of O5 data expunged, a cup of SCP-75's secretion was used as input. The product was proven to be the requested liquid, and the cup was able to successfully contain the material. However, the report for incident 075-7 was acknowledged two hours after the test. A containment procedure breach had occurred exactly the same time this test was taking place, waking SCP-75 to its active stage. It was able to secrete an amount of basic solution equal to the capacity of a coffee cup before emergency containment procedure was applied and it was rendered passive. The liquid was not found in the post-incident investigation. Addendum SCP-294I, researcher punched in request for cup of gold. The machine dispensed a cup of molten gold. Researcher requested similar precious materials with the same result. Addendum SCP-294J, researcher punched in, from a safe range, request for quote, cup of anti-water. The machine hummed briefly, then displayed, out of range, on entry pad. It is theorized that SCP-294 has a limited range of collection and cannot reach into alternate universes or dimensions. Addendum SCP-294K, researcher punched in request for diamond. SCP-294 briefly hummed, then displayed, out of range, on entry pad. SCP-294 gives this result for all solid substances. As diamond is a solid crystalline form of carbon, it appears the machine will not dispense liquid carbon as this does not result in a diamond. When cup of carbon was subsequently punched in, the machine dispensed a cup of liquid carbon. SCP-294 was immune to the damaging effects of the dispensed liquid. Addendum SCP-294M, testing for range of SCP-294's capacity for retrieval has been initiated. A unique compound has been formulated, composed of undisclosed ratios of bleach, cola, METRX powder, and garam masala. The fluid was created and placed in a sealed container, 25 meters away from SCP-294. When requested, the fluid was dispensed. An equal amount of the mixture was no longer present in its original container. Addendum SCP-294-01, researcher under observation of level 4 personnel, keyed in a request of �the best drink I�ve ever had� SCP-294 dispensed a fluid similar in appearance to cola. The researcher identified it as a mixed drink he recalls having at a bar during his bachelor party and was convinced it was �the best drink.� He did not know what ingredients were in the drink besides rum and cola. Further tests are scheduled to ascertain how SCP-294 gathers information. Addendum SCP-294-01A, under the same conditions, agent �the best drink I�ve ever had� SCP-294 delivered a dark fluid topped with white foam, which was later identified as �Vienna Lager�. The cup was printed with a color picture of five men and two women drinking beer on the beach. It was one of them. In his briefing, agent �confirmed� that his favorite drink ever was a Vienna Lager. He consumed it at the beach with his friends. It has now been confirmed that SCP-294 has the ability to directly gather information from someone�s mind in order to comply with the given conditions. Addendum SCP-294-Q1 Subject keyed �the perfect drink�. The machine dispensed a cup containing an odorless lavender liquid. After drinking the liquid, subject appeared to go into shock. Subject later committed suicide, leaving a note which read �I�m sorry, but at this point everything�s just one big letdown. Requesting such a drink again is highly discouraged. None of the components of the drink have yet been identified. Addendum SCP-294-T1 Subject keyed in �something Cassie will like�. The device was heard to hum for about three seconds before dispensing an empty cup. Printed on the side of the cup was an image of a traditional soda fountain glass, filled with something brown and topped with whipped cream. Not introduction to SCP-85, it was identified by her as a chocolate banana milkshake and judged �delicious.� Addendum SCP-294-W Researcher keyed in request for �a cup of music.� SCP-294 produced a clear sparkling fluid that tasted vaguely alcoholic. Following ingestion, subject reported feeling and not hearing a continuous rhythm and demonstrated the ability to move and even dance with a certain fluidity that he had not previously shown. Testing on other abstract concepts is continuing. Addendum SCP-294-AB During a mass security breach, Agent P*** requested �a cup of pertinent medical knowledge� while taking shelter inside the second floor break room. Of the four agents in the room, Agent P*** was the only one who was not injured. SCP-294 poured a cup of clear green liquid. Following the ingestion of this substance, Agent P*** began mending the other agent�s wounds in a manner consistent with Foundation medical training. Agent P*** no longer has the medical training that the liquid provided and other attempts to recreate the effect have failed. The agent has speculated that this event was an emergency measure taken by the object to ensure self-preservation. Addendum SCP-294-AC Dr. P*** requested �my life story� from SCP-294. SCP-294 made humming noises and shook violently for approximately three minutes before providing a highly viscous opaque black liquid. Upon consumption, said doctor reported that he remembered everything that had ever happened to him. During this test, Dr. P*** entered his office and returned 48 hours later with a 538-page autobiography. Addendum SCP-294-AD Researcher produced request consisting solely of the phrase �surprise me�. Device produced an opaque cup containing normal water, later determined to have been heated to approximately 200 degrees Celsius. Upon receiving vibration from transport, the contents of the cup turned into steam, violently spraying boiling water in a 2-meter radius. Addendum SCP-294-AF Researcher produced request for �blood of Christ�. SCP-294 vibrated and produced the message. P*** sanguinous May, then produced a paper drinking cup containing approximately 0.12 liters of red grape wine. Addendum SCP-294-AG Researcher produced requests for �cup of Smilodon blood�, �cup of passenger pigeon blood�, and �cup of Thomas Jefferson's blood�, and received three �out of range� errors. Addendum SCP-294-AH A D-class personnel with IQ of 99 and low curiosity scores was given written instructions about what to request. The D-class personnel produced a request for �blood of Canis Lupus�, and received a cup of liquid subsequently identified as �Wolfblood�. The D-class personnel next produced a request for �saliva of Echysphaerus Cabalus�, and received a cup of liquid subsequently identified as �Horse saliva�. The D-class personnel next produced a request for �urine of Fascularctocinerius�, and received a cup of liquid subsequently identified as �Koala urine�. The D-class personnel next produced a request for �Cerebro spinal fluid� of �Phoboromus Patersoni�, and received a cup of liquid currently undergoing analysis. It is to be noted that Phoboromus Patersoni went extinct during the late Miocene Epic approximately 8 million years ago. Addendum SCP-294-AI Dr. King produced a request for �a cup of room temperature superconductor�, and received a cup of apple juice with seeds floating in it. Addendum SCP-294-AI Dr. Menchu produced a request for �cup of D151839's leukemia�, and received a cup of fluid. The cup of fluid was microscopically examined and found to contain leukemic blast cells, which were a genetic match to D151839. A second request for �cup of D151839's leukemia� resulted in an �out of range� error. D151839 was subsequently found to be free of leukemia. However, within 15 days, the leukemia had recurred. Other SCP-294 experiments are currently awaiting approval. Lesson complete. If you missed the previous orientation, go watch SCP-293, Obsession, right now. Or for the complete course, watch this playlist.


Good morning, and welcome to the morning session on the future of US engagement in the Middle East My name is Chaim Malka. I'm the deputy director and a senior fellow at the Middle East program at CSIS I'm delighted to be here this morning as you can see I'm stepping in for my boss John Alterman who was supposed to be moderating this panel unfortunately, John Got delayed His flight got delayed this morning by the volcanic ash cloud Let me tell you I've never been so excited about volcanic ash in my life So this is a wonderful to be here Sharing the stage with with two very distinguished speakers What we're trying to do this morning. What we're going to be looking at is a Few years down the road looking at the inevitable changes that are going to be going on in the Middle East with the drawdown of US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan and how that's going to affect the future of US engagement in the Middle East I can't think of two better strategic thinkers to work through some of these issues with us today, and I'm delighted That they're here with us General Brent Scowcroft is former national security adviser Someone who really guided US foreign policy through a time of great uncertainty and change in the world and in the Middle East After the collapse of the Soviet Union I think he's really one of the great strategic thinkers of our time and I'm delighted that you're here with us Mr. David Ignatius, who many of you know as a novelist and Hollywood screenwriter is Is also a columnist with the Washington Post and I think someone who one of the most informed and Insightful commentators on US foreign policy today and especially US foreign policy in the Middle East today So I'm delighted to see so many people here delighted that our distinguished speakers are with us We'll start off with General Scowcroft, then we'll turn to Mr. Ignatius I'll ask a few questions, and then we'll turn it over to the audience. So General Scowcroft, please. Well, thank you very much for that kind introduction and I'm glad to be here with Screenwriter David Ignatius Among his many other accomplishments He wrote a book that's big Brzezinski and I put our names on So we're very close colleagues the Middle East topic that we're focusing on that is what happens down the road After we've left Iraq and Afghanistan to me is a fascinating one because our our approach toward Iraq has been Unusual from the very beginning, but now it's unusual in the sense that It almost seems that when our last troops are out of Iraq Iraq just disappears There there's no particular thought what happens down the line How does it fit in with the rest of the region or anything? We're there When we're there Iraq's important when we're gone We don't even we don't even think about it We we may be in the most critical aspect of Iraq right now and That is that while the security situation Besides all the horrors you read in the daily paper about suicide bombings and so on the security situation is getting better and the Iraqi military is Now increasingly able to handle the security situation The political situation is different. However, there are still sharp divisions among the groups and within some of the groups and They are now following election in the process of trying to accommodate to Divide and share power and that is a very difficult process Even in even in our own country But if it takes place within what I would call a general embrace of a US presence It seems to me it's more likely to take place in the process of accommodation and political discourse But if it hasn't happened by the time the US troops leave then it's more likely to turn into a zero-sum game with Brutality and force Determining the outcome That would be that would be unfortunate after all of the sacrifices made to produce a better Iraq Now one of the things that is permanent about Iraq is that it is one of the fracture zones in the region The fracture zones are both ethnic cultural and religious and To its east is Iran a Shiite country Many of whose principal shrines are in Iraq to its west is the Arab world Sunni Versus Persian and they meet in Iraq so Iraq is going to be a cockpit for the evolution of These contending influences Last but not least of course is the Kurdish situation a Large portion of Kurdish people live in Iraq Some live in Syria a number live in in Turkey and a number in Iran The Kurds have always thought That there are large enough culture that they deserve a state of their own a Situation not desired by any of the countries which harbor Turkish populations There which are Kurdish populations, so this is a very complex difficult region. It needs nurturing and That nurturing I think can best take place in the context of a general security resolution of the problems which beset both Sunni versus Shia and Persian versus Arab Afghanistan is a little different if we weren't in Afghanistan right now We almost certainly would not be going in we're in Afghanistan in part because President Obama campaigned About getting forces out of Iraq But so he wasn't accused of being a weakling He said the place we need to be is Afghanistan. That's where That's where our interests are without perhaps understanding the nature of those interests our Interests are in Afghanistan but I think That they are there For two reasons first of all it was the proximate source of the trade center Bombings because it was a haven for al Qaeda for training equipping so on It is also Neighbor to Pakistan Which is a key country in the region for us and for everyone else Pakistan has a very difficult history When India split up Pakistan became One of the two one of the then three portions a More difficult portion more tribal in nature Terrain facilitating separatism making unity difficult and And Pakistan has had enormous difficulties With democracy India inherited the Congress Party, which was the glue that helped India evolve into a more homogenous country Pakistan didn't enjoy that and they've had a series of of Civilian democratic governments, which for one reason or another have failed the military has taken over four times Sort of straightened things out turned it back to civilian. It's a very troubled history And it continues on that course the relationship between India and Pakistan is Tense to say the least It is improving again now, but another Mumbai incident Could be a catastrophe for everyone and Pakistan is not just another little Isolated state. It's a hundred and eighty million people Having nuclear weapons has been a focus of Conflict with India For influence between India and China and a Catastrophe there could be one that would involve many of the great powers of of the world Pakistan and the tribal areas Where we're focusing much of our attention in Afghanistan Also have a unique history because many of those tribal areas were used by the Pakistani military as Irregulars to Foment trouble In Kashmir Against the Indians. So this is a this is a very complex situation and right now We're trying to unravel it by solving the Afghan part of that Border region, which is largely Ungoverned, I think we've made one great development in in Afghanistan and that is we've changed our Tactics from counter-terrorism to counter insurgency Now that may sound pretty esoteric but it basically means that Counter-terrorism if you see a bad guy You go after him and you take him out and if you kill some civilians It's too bad, but it's collateral damage if your goal is counter insurgency And you have the same situation you don't take out the bad guy because the trouble you create by killing the civilians Is greater than the benefits you get by taking out the bad guy So we have changed that and that is basically our objective in Afghanistan and that is to give the Afghan people a sense of Relative stability and security we don't need an Afghan State which is a modern nation state We'd be delighted if we could go back to the old days 30 or 40 years ago when there was a King of Afghanistan who presided over a loose collection of Political and economic entities so that's basically our goal We're on the I think we're on the right track. Is it enough? our job really is to provide a The locals a sense of security Because previously what we would do is go in and clean out villages and then leave well as soon as we left the Taliban al-Qaeda would come back in kill all the people who supported us and preside over a reign of terror so we're clearing out areas and we're holding them But we don't have the troops to hold them forever We have to turn them over to the Afghan military, which is now Insufficient in in size and training to do it. So we have to train the Afghan military to do it The other aspect of it is the political influence from Kabul in many of these areas Kabul is seen as As bad in many ways as the Taliban Not terrorizing necessarily but corrupt so on so we need Kabul To appear to be helping not a part of the oppression of the locals that takes a Kabul government Karzai is in Washington even as we speak We've had a troubled history with him But he is the president of Afghanistan And I think that is what we're trying to put together if it all comes out, right? Afghanistan will be a Tolerable situation and a tolerable situation is all that we need in the region It won't end our problems with Pakistan, but that's not of our part of our subject today Thank you for that Very clear overview of the complexities of the region Mr. Ignatius First I want to thank Heim for his introduction after 30 years of writing about foreign policy. It's so nice To be lumped in with Hollywood, you know to have people ask you David What's Leonardo DiCaprio really like? And if you want to know the answer that you'll have to see me afterwards To to talk about foreign policy and our subjects like Brent I'm gonna talk a little bit about Iraq a little bit about Afghanistan Watching the the process in Iraq through these painful Seven years now Has taught me many lessons, but I think the Number one lesson is that there's an enormous difference between a really bad outcome and a just sort of bad outcome and Acceptably tolerably bad outcome And I'd say that's what we've we've ended up with we have still a weak Iraqi state Internal division risk of sectarian violence But it's not the total flaming Disaster that it would have been had we left in 2006 When the country really was pitching toward a civil war. I think historians 50 years from now will note Two people who got it right about Iraq The first is sitting on my right Brent Scowcroft warned very clearly About the dangers of invading Iraq in 2002 Primarily focusing on the question of what would fill the vacuum that we would create and he was prescient and courageous in Stating the dilemmas that we ended up seeing I'm gonna say something that a lot of people disagree with now, but I think another person who will get credit from historians Not for having gotten it right in the first instance about invading Iraq Is George Bush who saw that if he Pulled out as virtually everyone was urging him to do in this very painful 2006 2007 a time frame when we would have left behind a country just spinning apart Had he done that? We would we would be looking at a much worse situation and I have to say I do admire Bush for a Finding an alternative policy for finding in general Petraeus somebody who could carry it out And so I think we end up With a situation in Iraq that for all the difficulties Is is a lot better than the really terrible outcome that we would have been looking at so that that's my starting point As I look at Iraq following their March elections. I'm struck by the good sense of Iraqi voters so often betting on on the good sense of people Around the around the world is you know doesn't pay off, but in this case We saw Iraqis who in the first set of elections in 2005 had basically voted a sectarian ticket There had been big Shiite parties formed together in the alliance that was Back by Iran explicitly religious People Americans who ought to have known better talked back then about the 80% solution You know if we got the Shiites with us if we've got the Kurds with us You know basically forget about the rest that was part of the the arrogance of our policy back then that got us into so much trouble but in these elections in in March 2010 Iraqis voted in surprising numbers for Cross sectarian tickets the most striking example is the Iraq KIA Coalition headed by Ayatollah. We the former interim prime minister Which won the largest number of seats to the surprise of everyone most of all to the surprise of the Iranians who had Waged a major basically all out campaign. We would call it political covert action Pumping money into the parties candidates that they favored Vice president Biden told me in an interview on the record that I published in my column that He estimated our government estimates that the Iranian spending in support of its political allies in this election Was over a hundred million dollars So that's the kind of money that the Iranians spent to try to shape this election and guess what? It backfired, you know, but they basically got clobbered The the people they supported ended up doing far worse than was expected Iraqis ended up resenting the fact that some of these candidates had Iranian support So the Iranians have been trying ever since to repair their their situation It does look as if Have to be careful about making predictions, but this long period of political jockeying It prior to formation of a new government is Beginning to bend I think towards some Agreement I think the Iranians and their and their allies are exceeding to the The need to get a government that Iraqis are really demanding And so they're backing off of what was another push to disqualify a whole set of Of candidates I'd say one thing about the US role in this Iraq that we are leaving pulling out most of our troops were pulling out this enormous amount of Military equipment that we that we brought in but we shouldn't think that That investment that we made in the future of Iraq in a stable Iraq doesn't give us the right and really the Obligation to speak up about what we see as Proper course in Iraq. I sometimes worry that you know, we're so as Brent said we're so happy To be on our way out of there that we basically you know the line in Washington is zip it, you know That's it. I don't want to talk about it. Don't want to think about it. Don't want to deal with it, you know Farewell Iraq It's understandable given the all of the difficulties our country has faced all the problems that we've caused to be honest for Iraq and for Iraqis But I think you know that really gives us even more of an obligation to speak up when we see things Going wrong, and I think I think what that means is Senior US officials vice president of Biden's been given responsibility for this need to make clear what we see as red lines of going forward thing, you know outcomes that we think are appropriate given Iraq's constitution it's it's regional interests. It's security interests and things we think are unacceptable That that doesn't mean jumping back in and waging new military offenses It just means Understanding that we have a lot of power to shape outcomes there and that we shouldn't be afraid to speak out I think general Odeiro Has done a magnificent job in subtly Quietly using his power and the confidence that Iraqis have in him To shape shape outcomes in this period immediately after the election There are a lot of things that still are kind of murky, but I think the record will show the general Odeiro And I was really smart in what he did He his replacement general Austin is coming in he's a Experienced a strong figure, but I hope he does some of the some of the same just a brief word about Afghanistan As I tried to say with Iraq I think that we need to understand that our goal there President Obama's goal is to escape a really terrible outcome and Understand that that doesn't mean we're gonna have a really good outcome. I don't think that we are we're gonna have an Acceptably bad outcome. We're gonna have a country that's ragged. We're gonna have Afghan security forces that aren't really ready to do the job But we will have made it a lot better than it would have been had we had we bailed out of this project And I think I think President Obama's decision will be will be judged to have been a to have been a sound one As I look at the situation this week. I'm struck by a couple of things first you would have thought that US government officials would have learned by now something that General Scowcroft Always exhibited when he was in government, which is that it's wise when you're dealing with other countries Especially with your allies to make your criticisms in private you know especially in parts of the world where where public Dignity and and the and and the humiliation that comes from being criticized in public are such important things and I think that US officials are Talented special envoy for Afghanistan Pakistan Richard Holbrook our Defense Secretary one of the best Secretary's defense we've had in a long time most recently our smart experience national security advisor have all made a big boo boo in publicly criticizing Karzai and And in some instances all doing the same thing with Pakistani officials in ways that virtually guarantee a bad outcome I mean, you know it's just people are going to have to show that they're independent if you take them down in public They're gonna they're gonna bite you back And so I think this piece of theater we've been watching in Washington this week I'll be cynical and describe it as that in which we've had this public embrace of President Obama and President Karzai Is an elaborate attempt to repair damage that was Self-inflicted by us. We didn't need to to make the criticism so so emphatic in public It created a problem. We're now having to repair. I hope it's it's repaired. We don't have effectively an alternative to Karzai He knows that we know that let's get on with it A final thought about Afghanistan I Have to be honest and say that I think so far This strategy of President Obama's which I said I thought was a good one Is having difficulties in the field the first big test of it in Hulman province in a in a rural area called Marjah where I was at the end of March Initially look pretty successful. You know Marines went in bang bang. They cleared the area. They had a fabulous Brigadier General The Nicholson who just you know gives the best interview you ever saw and you know everybody's going you know there Well, that's just shows we can get to get the job done 90 days later Marjah is still Insecure the Taliban has not been cleared from all areas of Marjah despite this enormous Offensive by US Marines and what what looked like success and worse the Whole point of this exercise was to get local governance in Marjah That would be part of a process of transition to Afghan control and that's really not working From what I hear the officials haven't gotten there for the most part when they do get there They can't travel around because it's not secure they just The pieces of that have not come together. So we need to be honest about that and try to fix it while there's still time and The second thing that I'm struck by looking at Kandahar But also looking at dealing with President Karzai in Cobble is that when it comes to the political side of this, which is the most important We still aren't sure what to do I was I was in Kandahar at the end of March I sat in a Shura in which all the local big shots who were resented by a lot of the ordinary folks in Kandahar Sat around it basically said, you know over our dead bodies. Are you gonna change things? These aren't Taliban these are our friends, you know And they're basically saying the way we're dividing up the spoils where our tribe and our friends get all the goodies You know, that's the way we're gonna do it And if you try to mess with that you got and I think we've looked at that and we've realized if you knock that Whole power structure over as much as it's resented by people in Kandahar city and Kandahar district You're gonna create a vacuum into which will flow. You don't know and So I think people are being very very careful about upsetting the apple cart, you know, and that's you know I think they're they're they're trying to be prudent Appropriately so I don't think Kandahar is gonna work out smoothly or easily So you know the two key tests that we're gonna happen this year for our Afghanistan policy I have to be honest and say I don't think they're going very well So I think we're gonna end up next July with a ragged situation and my hope will be and I'll close here that it will be Just a little bad, you know, it will be acceptably bad. It won't be flaming all out terrible Because you know, I've learned to think that's that's gonna be my metric So I'm I'll leave it there. Thanks. Thank you for that difficult yet honest assessment of the situation. I want to Pose a question to you general scorecroft to start off with you mentioned that the region needs a lot of nurturing right now There's a lot of fault lines Sony Shia occurred Arab Arab-Israeli is the US in a position To give the nurturing to nurture the region and in a way in an effective way. Are we capable of that now? I Think we are I think we're in a unique position to do it and that brings in State which is not a part of our discussion Iran Iran has borders on both of the areas that we've been talking about where we have troops Are we discussing with Iran the nature of the region? No Iran's gonna be there long after we're gone and It seems to me however profound our differences a discussion with Iran on Iraq and the future of Iraq and the future of Afghanistan is Critical to any kind of a resolution of the region now in the early days of Afghanistan. We did have dialogue With Iran on the borders of the Afghan conflict and then with acts and evil other things that that broke down So it seems to me one of the things we need to do In dealing with the Iranian problem is to recognize that Iran itself is in a difficult region be set by these different kinds of fracture lines and That we ought to seek a Solution which accommodates as best one can in a very turbulent region Those problems can you give us some examples of how we might include Iran in that kind of a framework that you suggest? well The future of Iraq for example What should be the future of Iraq how do how do we want Iraq to secure its place in the region we We've been so concentrated on a Saddam Hussein in the region that it's sort of Distorted that but you you go back 20 years or so Iran and Iraq fought a seven-year war here our original policy after we replaced the British In that whole area was to build strength in Iran as the Cassifier for the region when the Shah left it was a balance between Iran and Iraq So we didn't have to keep forces there. Those are the kinds of things we need to start thinking about again How can we produce a region? which Tends towards stability rather than toward chaos and I don't have all the answers But we need to start focusing on that rather than on the residual problems of the past Let me ask you David Ignatius. You mentioned that Iran was surprised by the outcome of the Iraqi elections Are we in the US having an honest debate about Iran's role in the region and Iran's influence the region? especially in light of drawdowns Expected drawdowns in Iraq and Afghanistan Well, I think Mr.. Rani and regime and it's it's president a many nijad do everything they can to make themselves toxic to Detour anybody who'd like to do what? Brent describes and what I agree in principle makes sense I said a nice thing about the Bush administration in 2006 a moment ago now I'm gonna make a very critical comment One of the biggest mistakes that they made was that in March of 2006 after a lot of internal debate in Tehran the Supreme Leader Hemeny decided to send His most trusted representative really Ali Larajani to Iraq for high-level strategic dialogue with the United States about Stabilizing Iraq where in fact Iranian and US interests At that time and arguably still are pretty similar. We want to stabilize Iraq under the existing Shiite-led government The US that invited these talks we had been you know Sending signals that we we'd loved Iranian help in stabilizing Iraq So the Iranians decided to take us up on it and sent Proposed to send large on me. I happened to be in Baghdad on the day that that was announced. It was orchestrated with our friends in the Shiite Alliance Ablaziz Hakeem and others and no sooner the Iranians announced that they were doing this then the US Basically said no, we're not playing We panicked and the reason we panic was that large on he was so high level We were afraid that our the nuclear issue would get swallowed up in a discussion about Iraq I Was in Tehran in in October in in August and September of that year And I want to see one of the hardliners who runs a newspaper there called Kehan and he said you know I tried to warn Ayatollah Hemeny not to send his representative to Baghdad. I said this is an American trick They're not serious about working with us about Iraq and I was right and we'll never make that mistake again, and I thought boy. What a missed opportunity that was So I you know so it is the opportunity still there to have a dialogue with Iran about stabilizing the region Yes, is is the long-run goal for wise us policy in the broadest strategic sense a new security architecture for the Gulf and The adjacent regions that draws in Iran as a rising power The reality of whose whose power cultural weight Historical importance can't be shouldn't be ignored is is that what we should be trying to do in the long run? Absolutely Does this White House understand this this yes? I mean that was the whole point that President Obama made and talking really from his first day about engagement with Iran that was not popular Universally, but he said we're gonna make every effort we can to engage this country draw it into strategic dialogue with this Goal that I just described in mind of a new regional security architecture And basically he's gotten nothing for it. He said two private letters to the Supreme Leader There have been lots of efforts through many different channels to communicate our interest in a serious dialogue, and it's gone nowhere So what do we do now? And I you know for that I I'm not I'm just a journalist, so I turn to people like General Scowcroft Well general Scowcroft, let's let's pick up on that point. I mean Future Gulf security environment where you have a greater Iranian presence How do you think our Gulf allies and the GCC states view that sort of a structure and and do you think they Worry about the future us commitment to their region. I don't know if they worry about our commitment. I think they worry about the region and In the Gulf area, they're very concerned about Iran and the spreading of Iranian influence both because of the religion and because of the Cultural differences But they're not about to join in alliance with the United States against Iran at the present time Because that would be immensely unpopular in the streets of the region Can we do it I don't I don't know because I think David touched it on a very important point And that is however much we try to have an enlightened policy toward Iran It's very difficult to know who to talk to and From the Iranian perspective, I think there's a great fear in talking to anybody because you can be accused by Other factions in Iran of selling out to the great Satan so we have a huge problem here The structure of the Iranian state is a theocracy and so the mullahs are Titrally the final arbiters. There is a government run by a president Ahmadinejad elected so on so forth but those the laws that they pass can be invalidated by the mullahs and so on so there are those two and then there is the coercive power of the state in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Who control the situation now theoretically they're controlled by the mullahs as well. Are they? In the turmoil since the last Iranian elections, it seems to me and David has a much better vantage point than I look at that The mullahs have lost authority Ahmadinejad Probably the government has lost some authority and the chief beneficiaries of the Situations since then have been the Revolutionary Guard Who more and more are the controllers of? Internal Iran now. What does that mean? I don't know but let's suppose we decide We want to sit down with Iran and have a discussion about the whole region the ideal situation Who do you talk to? Can you talk to anybody? That's not at all clear David Ignatius are there tools that we might have at our disposal that we're not using to try to raise the cost or raise the price For the Iranians to pursue their nuclear program Or is it inevitable that Iran like North Korea like Pakistan and India will become a nuclear power? Well, that's the the toughest question that this administration faces going forward I Often in sessions like this quote a comment by my friend Graham Allison at the Harvard's Kennedy School of Government who has said that the US Iranian nuclear confrontation is the Cuban Missile Crisis in slow motion and I Think we all have a grim sense of what Graham means that that this is you know, it goes forward so slowly But we are on a course for confrontation absent some change absent some diplomatic some solution some way of Increasing pressure to a point that's unacceptable for Iran so Ron changes course thinking of that that analogy that the ships Stop and then turn around and take the missiles back to back to back to Russia You know absent that we we are on a course toward military conflict initiated by us initiated by Israel initiated by Iran Who can say that would be a disastrous outcome the last thing this country needs is another war in that part of the world I think it's really really important that we find an alternative to that so I'm to Speak directly to your to your question. I'm in a mood where I want to look Not at the bright side, but at the at the at the you know Often more likely Negative outcomes, so I want to assume that Somewhat stronger sanctions will be enacted and that they will they will fail They will be no more successful in stopping this program than previous sanctions have been So what lies between the failure of additional sanctions and the opening of military conflict? What are the options in that space and how do we get ready to operate in that space because that's we're gonna We're gonna be pretty soon. I you know, I couldn't say when but that's where we're gonna be I think There are all kinds of things that I can think about there. They're probably you know best expressed in private Because because they're really complicated options But You know, I mean, I'll I'll give you an example just just to think about in In in 2007 Israel became concerned about the discovery that Syria was building a nuclear reactor in secret Contrary to all understandings The US also was aware of this there was disagreement about what the best way to deal with this was One night that reactor was just taken out That there was no public claim of credit. There was no Comment there was no patting on the back and there was a denial by the Syrian government that had ever been a reactor in the first place and Indeed it was plowed under some other structure was erected and and so the Syrians are so You know deep into that version of events that they don't want to come so I Mentioned that because it was widely predicted Among the few in the widely it was it was predicted by the few in the government who really were following this carefully that that Bombing that reactor could produce a regional war with devastating consequences That didn't happen Why didn't it happen, you know, what was the combination of factors that led to The desired outcome no more reactor no war. Is that in any way a useful guide to the future? I don't know, but it's one of the things I'm thinking about There are a lot of issues on the table. I think I'll I'll stop monopolizing this conversation and open it up to the audience I'm sure there are a lot of questions. We have two microphones And we also have some Questions that are coming in over the internet that we might Thank you It's on its way. I'm itsy-worth. I'm with the Naval Postgraduate School I want to ask about American attitudes and and the attitude that somehow we have the right to go overseas and tell people What kind of government they ought to be running? Seems to me that's a very hard thing to do today How do you start educating them that perhaps that's not the only alternative to dealing with some of these problems? And I guess the other thing that I think they need to understand is change is slow and We are so accustomed to quick turnover of technology But it takes generally two generations to get change Within a human setting so how do you educate people to understand that so? Their expectations line up with what it is we can deliver and not get forced into doing things because they're impatient Well, let me hi mitzy Let me take the first of your observations, which I think is a really Important one people don't like being told what to do They don't like it if they're Americans We reset it enormously when other people try to tell us what to do and they don't like it if they're Pakistanis Afghans You name it I Think one of the achievements of this president. He has a mixed record in foreign policy But I think one of the real achievements that he's made is that he has Taken us down from the bully pulpit If you look at the polling numbers that register international opinion about the United States it there's a striking Change since Obama became president. I last night had dinner with a Russian businessman who's visiting who knows that regime well, and he said You know your president is pretty popular in Russia today Even though President Bush in many ways was much closer to to Vladimir Putin than than Obama is to Medvedev Russians Like Obama they think he's not trying to push us around they think he respects our Dignity our rights, you know, I was I was fascinated by that the numbers show similar reactions Around the world So I think we have a president who just in terms of his body language the way he speaks Seems less like somebody telling you off telling you what to do I think sometimes president Bush, you know couldn't help it. He didn't mean to sound so Didactic but it came across that way and even people who should have liked it I was all struck by you know, Egyptians president Bush was you know, he was fighting for the Egyptian Man or woman in the street, but it didn't help him in terms of his popularity in Egypt Can I ask you to continue or maybe general scope craft you can jump in on that? I agree with you that there's a lot of Obama is very popular in that sense He's tried to reach out. He's tried to heal relations with the Muslim world But to what extent do you think do you think that that's also seen in some quarters of the world as weakness as American weakness the u.s Is is tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan has a lot of security obligations Is is that outreach and engagement the softer side of the u.s? Message viewed as weakness at all. I'd love to know what Brent thinks No, I don't I don't really think so. I think that We have frequently interpreted that way that the United States has been too wishy-washy and We need to get out and we need to lead and you remember some of the slogans from the recent past if you're not with us You're against us You know either followers or get out of the way all of those things and I think that that Contruded to a sense of Huberess that the rest of the world described to the United States. Hi, let me say just one thing In the book that the Brent mentioned which was called America in the world Conversations about the future of foreign policy in which in which General Skowcroft is big near Brzezinski a prominent Republican a prominent Democrat both former National Security Advisors talk with me just basically, you know asking questions in the middle About where about where about where foreign policy was going and both of them made and I think this was the central Analytical point of this book both of them made the point that that the world is in the midst of a kind of revolution In terms of attitudes General Skowcroft spoke about a yearning for dignity around the world people just felt that they they it was a kind of New wave is like the post-colonial period, but it kind of coming back and and this this great ferment And somehow the US had to get our policy aligned with that reality of the world So we were going in the same direction as that rather than seeming to try to stop it and check it And I thought it was a really powerful point. I think that book was carefully read General Skowcroft's and Biggs arguments were carefully followed by this White House And I think that they've had some success in that and that's not you know, I mean, you know We always talk about smart power smart power is aligning your interests with you know The way the world is going so that you know You're on the same train and you're kind of going to get to the same place together and not fighting wars all Away, and I think that that's been a smart thing. They've tried to do not a weak thing I think one of the differences is you know, we pride ourselves on solving problems And so we go into an area of whether it's whether it's Vietnam whether it's Iraq wherever it is We want to straighten it out and if it doesn't straighten out It's got to be because the local leaders are wrong Well, we have a fantastically bad record of changing leaders and improving the situation and I think Historically, I think that really goes back to the post-World War two period when we picked up a devastated Europe and Put it back together again, and we think that's us. We can do that the difference is Europe was just fractured and all you had to do was let it reconstruct itself The people were there. They knew how to do it so on we're dealing with cultures now that are fundamentally different and We have to recognize that this is as David said this is a very different and slow Process and we can't appear to direct it. We have to encourage it and that's sort of Non-American I see another question over there Hi, Mary Louise Kelly long with NPR and now shifting over to Georgetown University Question as we're talking about fault lines in the Middle East. There's of course no greater one than the Israeli-Palestinian conflict I wonder how the two of you rate the Obama administration's efforts so far in that arena Do you expect to see should we expect to see greater engagement or? They've got obviously got a lot of foreign policy problems on their plate Are they going to leave it at the current level of engagement? Do you think? Well, thank you, David I Personally think we have a Historic opportunity in the Palestinian issue at the present time Which we have yet to seize I Believe that if you look around this troubled world With all the problems it faces That the US faces in the world that there's no single issue that this president could take hold of and produced greater effect Than the Palestinian peace process because it psychologically infects the entire region and Iran Plays on it not only through Hezbollah and Hamas who's very raison d'etre It's a Palestinian process But this sense of injustice that they turn into hatred against the great saint So psychologically it would be a tremendous step and I think that if President Obama would fought would follow up on his Cairo speech Which almost instilled a sense of euphoria in the region? Here's a guy who understands us who wants to help us To say it is time now The end of the Clinton administration Had set forth the parameters of a settlement in the Middle East it didn't happen because Clinton left office Arafat was reluctant the Arabs weren't there to support for a variety of reasons It collapsed, but it represents a kind of consensus on what the solution is and If president Obama would say we believe that these Taba Accords of 2000 Represent the right framework for a discussion of a settlement and we support them We would certainly get support from the Europeans Probably from the Russians and the UN thus the quartet supporting and I think it could dramatically Change the situation in the whole region Instead the administration started out with What I would call a repetition of confidence building measures the Israelis Stopped settlements and the Arabs Provide some steps toward normalization Well to me that's going after the capillaries not the jugular And it was almost doomed to fail because why would the Israelis? Stopped settlements and what would that do for the Arabs because they thought the Israelis had agreed to stop settlements 30 years ago So that has bogged down and now we're on proximity talks, which is a step away from where we started out and So I guess I would say that a dramatic step by the president who said This is what the United States believes is a fair and equitable solution And we think it ought to be the basis for negotiations by the parties would be a dramatically positive step I think Brent said it just right. I think that that's right. I think that We'll see they're trying to make a Last effort with the incremental proximity talks approach with you could say the Veiled threat that if you don't if you don't do this, we are prepared, you know We might listen to that General Skokroft and we might you know We might come to the table with our own set of principles So you better get moving and we'll see if that produces any progress. I think it probably won't and I think the dilemma in the fall Will will be the woman that Brent describes and I think he He's right This this does seem to be a conflict that the parties on their own are not able to resolve And if you think it's an Israel security interest These are the Iran visa V Hamas visa V all of the enemies that surround Israel to find some way to Get some kind of settlement here as I do Then I think some more active US role now is appropriate Making just to make the linkage between the Arab Israeli issue and and and Iran again Which has come up into the public debate quite a bit Do you believe that the Israelis are capable of making the strategic compromises on peace before they know how the Iran issue will be settled Oh, yes, I don't I don't think these are mutually exclusive Israel considers its existential threat right now to be Iran and It would like the region to focus on the Iranian problem and thinks that the Arab states are a natural ally In dealing with the Iranian situation and that is theoretically true But it it overlooks this Gaping void of the Palestinian issue, which is existential with the Arab side So, you know the Bush 43 administration tried to get a coalition together To deal with with Iran the Arabs Israel the United States. It didn't work and it won't work Because of the Arab hang-up on the Palestinian issue I see a lot of other hands out there. Yes, sir in the middle. Can you wait for the microphone? It's on its way Hi, Michael Davis with Universal Human Rights Network I'd like to know what impact you think a politically stable Iraq will have in the larger region specifically I'm thinking of Egypt and Saudi Arabia well I'll take a crack at that if you if you had a political stable politically stable Iraq that was a Functioning democracy. I think the the impact would be enormous One last time I was in Baghdad or one time last year when I was there I was sitting talking with two Iraqi friends who were having a heated conversation about Whether Prime Minister Maliki should be dumped or not And you know one was saying Maliki's a disaster, you know this this man must be voted out You know any listed to two or three other alternative Prime Minister's no Maliki's done much better than you're saying and I thought to myself I can't imagine this conversation taking place anywhere else, you know arguably with the exception of Lebanon in the in the Arab world and So that's what the promise that Iraq offers Iraq is you know to everyone's surprise kind of a functioning democracy right now and They they're all they're on the verge of blowing it and you know demanding recounts and throwing candidates out but they seem to kind of Get it together at the last minute Again and again Egypt is facing a transition that really matters I mean Egypt is still the biggest country the heart of the Arab world as we as we always used to say and We're begin we have to think now about the post Mubarak era and how's that transition going to go and Do we do we have Radical Muslim Brotherhood Pressure against the regime and I Don't want to say there's a direct connection between between Baghdad and Cairo on this But but I but I do think that people in the Middle East are sort of struck by the fact that Elections are a pretty good thing and they and they watch Al Jazeera They watch all Arabia and they and they see this very lively Political debate in Iraq and there I mean so far as I know talking to my friends They're struck by it. So that's that's a good thing I don't want to overstate the linkage, but I think that there is a little bit If I could just add I agree with that completely. I think in the Middle East not just in Egypt There is a transition Middle East merged on our scene With us run by a series of strong men They're passing the first was King Hussein and that transition has been successful now We're facing one in Egypt. We're facing one fundamentally in Saudi Arabia as well What is the next leadership likely to be and I think Iraq could could play a role as An example of how that could take place Well this conference is streaming live on the internet and we have some questions that came in off the internet So I want to pose one of those to you. It's a bit of a bombshell But where will where will be the next crisis in the Middle East and how will it affect us interests? So you can take your pick I'll take a I'll take a check at that I think it's quite likely that the next crisis could be in Lebanon and it could be Precipitated by Iran who sees itself in a difficult position wants to take the pressure off and Stimulates an uprising by Hezbollah It could take place in in Gaza As well, which is another called this is not One of the other reasons suppressed on a peace accord is this is not a placid region It will just stay and wait until we're ready to do something Next a next step is almost certainly Going to happen and they're all bad and then you have to start reconstructing all over you mentioned Lebanon and Gaza Do you think it's in the interest of either Hezbollah or Hamas to provoke a war with Israel? And if there was that kind of a war again, how do you think that would affect the US? well, I this would not be provoking a war with Israel and Iran this would be Iran through its proxies in Hezbollah and Hamas Stimulating something which would fully occupy Israel and Iran would say what us I Like like brand. I think the top of my list would be Lebanon countries in the region tend to like to fight their wars Lebanese territory rather than their own for understandable reasons The only hope of avoiding that is that the Lebanese are sick of being everybody's battle battlefield Exerting pressure on the on the actors especially Hezbollah to To resist that I think I see no evidence that we have a Lebanese government strong enough to do that I'll just mention one problem that concerns me. I don't think it's the next War or crisis at that level, but it's something that's not on people's radar. And I so I want to mention mention it one consequence of not addressing the Palestinian problem for the Netanyahu government is that as as as Palestinians feel more pressure in the in the occupied territories absent a settlement there's an inevitable tendency to move out toward Jordan and In the last several weeks a group of retired Jordanian Army officers has issued a public Letter to the King the King Abdullah something that's quite unusual in that country demanding that King Abdullah Resist efforts to solve the Middle East the Israeli Palestinian problem at Jordan's expense These are essentially East bankers in the army the traditional Bedouin core of Stability in that in that country who were saying You know Netanyahu wants to make Jordan the Palestinian state Palestinians are streaming into Jordan Have a demographic majority have increasing roles in the government In King Abdullah's government and they're unhappy about it and taking this unusual step That's just a small sign. We like tend to think thank goodness of Jordan as a relatively stable Island in this kind of messy Map, but here's here's a sign of underlying tensions Unusual steps by important actors that if if I were sitting in the NSC and Brent scope cross old chair I would take seriously Yes, sir Chet Crocker Georgetown University a couple of 20,000 foot questions for a retired Air Force general and a screenplay writer Um Brett you mentioned the phrase a nurturing presence and I wonder what kind of post-Iraq war post-Afghan war Military footprint you see in that part of the world and and what what role for our diplomacy Are we going to be the lead actor on all the issues that we've been touching on? Israel Palestine India Pakistan And of course the Gulf security architecture, which David mentioned So are we going to be? the lead diplomatic presence and the lead military presence in this region and should this region continue to occupy 80 percent of our Political and diplomatic capital around the world. Thank you Yeah, I think you're the best one to answer that question. I I would hope that we would Back down a little bit from leadership in the region to if you will nurturing and cooperation and encouragement For the region to Get itself together and to move in unison. It's fundamentally a rich region Iraq for example has huge natural resources the right kind of encouragement Could do a lot to turn the Iraqi-Iranian relationship To one at least of toleration. I Think Jordan is another problem, which is in part a regional problem Aside from the issues of the East Bank and so on. There are close to a million Iraqi refugees in In Jordan, this is a terrible burden for a state without the natural resources That some of the others have I think we can use our ability to organize and guide in a way Which encourages the best instincts of the region without saying We've dealt with these military problems now. We're gonna set the region straight because I don't think we're able to do that Chat let me throw out just one idea that I heard recently that Made me think of ways we can hand off some of the The hard work here to others that that may be more successful in an aspects of it Talking with Ashraf Ghani the former Afghan finance minister over the last several weeks prior to the arrival of President Karzai he mentioned the Interesting Prospect that Afghanistan may have a lot more mineral wealth If conflict there ever Subsides than we realize I mean his estimates were one to three trillion dollars in copper iron ore lithium other strategic raw materials and he argued the key to Development of these resources and the key to long-run stabilization of our country may be China As you probably know was the Chinese who bid on the big Compromise that the Afghans opened open for for for bids And the Chinese agreed as part of that deal to build a rail a railroad into Afghanistan through the northeast they obviously can't go over the direct border because you'd have to go right over the Himalayas that would be a hell of a railroad to ride so they'll probably go through Tajikistan but but Ghani said something that really stuck with stuck with me He said our problem is that we have been a frontier that we have been seen strategically as a barrier to India and Pakistan it's the way the world thought of us and We need to be not a barrier, but a transition point and He said think of frontiers are always dangerous. He said frontiers are crazy people are always getting his wild conflicts and Think of your own frontier and think of what ended its status as a frontier where people went around shooting each other It was the railroad It was it was the basic Fact of economic infrastructure and development and he said that's going to be true for us Some day and the people who may be best positioned to do that are not new Americans But the Chinese and I found that fascinating really interesting idea Other questions, thank you You're not Alexander an academic Thank you for your overview If I may I would like to guess your reaction Regarding another element we focused a lot on the Palestinians value Issue if only we can resolve it this can make a tremendous change in the Middle East My question is how do you see the prospects? of peace between Syria and Israel and The ball for example of Turkey in this process. Thank you Well Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu was just in Washington at the time of the nuclear summit with his prime minister Davutoglu is one of the most ambitious foreign ministers I know and He is eager to restart the Turkish Channel for dialogue between Syria and Israel He's also eager to start a channel with Iran and just flying back and forth to Tehran every other week I Think you know we'll see how that goes more important to me right now is is the u.s. Syria bilateral relationship, and I think it really it really You know if there's if there's an opportunity out there for creative diplomacy You know a makeable putt to use the golf term. It strikes me that this is it Every time that I go to see Bashar Assad every time that anybody goes to visit and me basically Just can't stop telling you how eager he is for greater dialogue that his future inevitably is looking west not east and I think you know Testing that in a creative way Creative skillful way through engagement and diplomacy make sense this question of Syrian Shipment of weapons or tolerance for the shipment of weapons to Hezbollah has come up again And this has made this more complicated You know that raises to me the more fundamental question of whether the tail wags the dog here I mean, I think it's increasingly difficult for Syria to exercise control over Hezbollah But to me that makes it more important for us to begin to move now Rather than less I think that I think that you know Syria the serious ability to exercise control So that really crazy things don't happen in Lebanon With a missile exchange and really devastating conflict. That's really important. So I'd love to see more attention I'd like like to see our ambassador get over there and and just see you'll see what's possible I couldn't tell you for sure, but I'd sure like to see it being explored more. I I'm surprised we haven't made more progress with Syria than we have because it seems to me It's certainly in the US interest. It seems to me It's in Syria's interest not to be totally hostage to Iranian foreign policy So far it has gone Extremely slowly. I think fundamentally though the Syrian Israeli problem is much more tractable than the Syrian Palestinian problem because That that frontier is a strategic frontier. It is not a historical cultural Frontier and there is a solution if you stand on the top of the goal and heights It's almost like you're looking straight down into Israel So it is a strategic problem for Israel, but a demilitarized goal on heights with UN troops or somebody there is a perfectly acceptable solution I think to both sides so I think that is something waiting to happen and It puzzles me that it hasn't happened faster The conference organizers made only one request to me and that was that we end on time. So I'll be quick then Are there some Lower visibility issues that the US and Iran could engage in We that whether it be counter-narcotics at the border with Iran or piracy and are there some things that could become the capacity Building confidence building kinds of steps we could make without it always having to be the higher order issues of Iraq or the nuclear Well, that that's a good question. I think they're I think they probably exist there Two separable categories the one is Iraq and the region which is we've been talking about the other is a rock with nuclear Iran with nuclear weapons and I think that can be treated separately from the others I Think it'd be worthwhile trying but to me one of the really Intractable difficulties how you talk to Iran at all Both you don't know what the right channel is who are the right people what their negotiating authority is with their report To and there's a reluctance of any of these groups to be seen Reaching out to the great saint because it exposes them to Domestic problem to me. That's the greater problem, but I think I think we ought to be searching for ways to deal with it One starting point that's appealed to me for the last several years would address One area in which the US and Iran are constantly Facing off and that's Incidents at sea in the Persian Gulf I think there's quite a lot of interest and support quiet support among our naval officers for the idea of finding some way to The model would be the incidents at sea agreement that was Negotiated with the Soviet Union at the height of Cold War tension when you know, we were really getting into some tricky moments Of confrontation and that agreement was negotiated and it was it did build confidence between the militaries I'm sure Brent was part of that Process and you could you could do something similar arguably in the Gulf one problem is that is that operational control over coastal defenses Of Iran and the Gulf as I understand it has now been given to the Revolutionary Guard Naval forces not to the regular Navy and the Revolutionary Guard is increasingly active So you this would really be a negotiation with the Revolutionary Guard not with the regular military At a time when we're trying to undercut the Revolutionary Guard when they're so unpopular at home Do you want to be negotiating with them? It's complicated, but that's that's one area that people who think about this question Have focused on and you know if you were looking for a starting point that would be it So this doesn't appear to be getting any easier with the drawdown Maybe we didn't solve all the problems not yet. Thank you so much. This has been an incredibly enriching discussion I've learned a lot. I'm grateful to both of you General Scowcroft David Ignatius for enlightening this discussion And thank thank you to all of you for for joining us


guys subscribe and turn notifications on leave a like and drop a comment down below get here first and win giveaway calls i will pin as first comment on some of my videos be fast and good luck what is going on guys welcome back to the channel and i appreciate you being here today i am back with another destiny 2 video and today we're going to cover all the news from the past week including this week at bungee in case you missed it which behold some amazing new information about the game going forward but before we get into that guys if you do enjoy the video leaving a like really helps out and if you are new around here and enjoy daily destiny 2 videos be sure to subscribe okay so we're gonna start with this week at bungee from last night this week at bungee the dreaming city revealed it's underworld the curse on a dream in city has grown to its most potent state as the curse grows stronger the world changes with it some of you discovered a new portal and dove into the shatron to attack the heart of the curse you still have until the reset to give it a try it's an end game activity that puts your most powerful gear and skills to the test if you're not quite ready yet don't worry the shout out drum will return when a curse cycle is at its worst again in three weeks that should give you some time to power up and prepare to explore its depths wow it's okay then so the shatron's actually on a three week cycle so if you want the bolt the exotic boulder wish ender if you can't get it this week or until weekly reset you'll have to wait a further three weeks so that's good to know interesting information there people now i have put out a guide a full guide on how to get the wish ender with all the tips and tricks you shall need to get through it i've also put out a glitch video where you can actually despawn the ogre and get the quest a lot easier then videos can be found linked within the video description if you want to check them out okay so getting back into it that's not the only new activity that became available this week we also released a new crucible mod along with new maps to boot if you have been too busy with the plethora of other options available on the director here is a quick look at the mod and maps available now for all players of destiny 2 check out the video people i designed breakthrough to train you in the art of bank robbery fight to deploy the breaker then hack your opponent's vault now breakthrough the spoils of victory are yours now i'm not going to lie like they say here i have been too busy with other things i mean i've got two characters in one at the moment juggling that with things in real life like looking after my daughter my gym all sorts it's absolutely crazy so i have not had time to play this new mod but looks cool i've probably died into it within the weekend okay getting back into the twap uncommon cause ever since forsaken launch we have received tons of feedback on a wide variety of topics too she seemed to stand above the rest the cost of masterwork cause and the drop rate of exotic weapons and armor we asked the investment team to talk about some of our goals with masterwork cause and the exotic drop rates the problems we've identified and our plans for addressing them quote in the investment team right here we have been monitoring the community's feedback concerning masterwork cause and exotic drop rates here is a quick breakdown of our original design goals along with some of our plans to address your feedback masterwork cause for infusion goals for adding masterwork cause to infusion costs make infusing and masterworking a meaningful choice infusion and masterwork should be mutually exclusive problems with the current masterwork core economy masterwork cause have a misleading name when they were created the definition of a pinnacle item put the emphasis almost entirely on masterworking we expanded that definition in forsaken but didn't update the currency there are not enough reliable resources to earn masterwork cause you can say that again bungee which can make deciding what you spend them on two difficult plans for addressing those problems we have been monitoring core supplies and numbers aren't as high as we'd like we are planning to create more reliable and plentiful core sources we are going to rename masterwork cause so their purpose is more obvious now i'm not going to lie i mean i've really got any masterwork cause i've still got someone left old from what i was stacking for the forsaken i think i've got about 70 left and i've infused quite a lot but i'm just burning through them now the higher i get so yeah we need more ways of earning masterwork cause people exotic drop rates now we know how their exotics are i mean i've had four since the forsaken dropped i mean and i grind the game every single day as you can imagine only two of them have been new exotics the other two have been old so yeah they are much rarer but to be honest i prefer them like this it means when you see an exotic engram drop on the floor your heart races you run to it as fast as you can to see what it is that is what an exotic is all about so this is what they say about exotic drop rates goals for exotic drop rates exotics are intended to be meaningful long-term chases fine exotics should be rare but impactful exactly right problems with the current exotic drop rates right now we are falling short of the impactful part of our goal there's nothing exciting or powerful about getting your fourth fighting lion when all you really want is a two-tailed fox plans for addressing those problems we plan to increase the chance for exotics to drop something you don't already have they then stick we'll continue to monitor your feedback and we'll give you more details about these changes before they go live i mean this is great i this is something i agree on them doing what i wouldn't agree on them is increasing drop chances because as rare as they are now like they say they are more impactful when you do get that one you're chasing but like they said there is a problem of getting duplicates which i mean i get plenty of duplicates but yeah we'll see our goals in the future people moving on to the next i am banna last week lord saladin returned to the tower for the first time since the launch of four second he brought with him a few changes to i am banna and we've been monitoring the community's reaction to them senior designer joe and mai has some information about our plans for the next i am banna bought in joe and mai right here one of the goals we have for the i am banna is that it's an opportunity for lower power players to catch up or re-engage in their pursuit of power based on your feedback and our analytics we're not meeting that goal there are two chances we're making to help resolve this problem the first change is to reduce the completion values for several of the event bounties currently it's very difficult for a lower power player to complete the bounties due to the gameplay disadvantages they experience light bearer super kills have been reduced to 20 from 25 iron in the blood match completions has been reduced to 15 from 30 shine on orbs generated has been reduced to 50 from 100 i mean this one was absolutely ridiculous i mean generating 100 orbs in pvp and most of the time me i'm using my golden gun i pop it and die instantly man that got on my nerves i think i got about 25 orbs playing for hours one hour so yeah i definitely did not complete that one i am victory match wins have been reduced to seven from 10 to be precise precision kills have been reduced to 50 from 100 all in a week's work kills have been reduced to 150 from 250 the second change is that all bounties will now provide power for gear say what this was the first i am banna in destiny 2 in which power was enabled we have seen feedback from players who enjoyed this and feedback from players who preferred it when power was normalised we will continue to monitor the conversation but we wanted to give you some information on exactly how power affects your damage compared to previous iron banner events in d1 pvp lead derrick carol has the details along with some graphs quoting derrick there's a lot to unpack here hey so you might be interested in what power matters actually means going forward in iron banner in the past we've published a nice but not exactly straightforward graph pulled straight from the game's content this time around it's no different although i will take a bit more time to explain what the purple line means to you you can see this graph on the screen now guys as you read the left to right across the graph you'll see the effects of having power that amount lower than the player you're attacking for example if i am at the same level as my opponent my outgoing damage is multiplied by 1.0 so there is no change from normal crucible if i'm 100 below my opponent my outgoing damage is multiplied by 0.8 so i have 20% reduction if i'm 200 power below my opponent people say that i've managed 200 below anybody my outgoing damage multiplied by 0.5 so i have 50% reduction and i'm really sad about what's happening to me in this match no shit oh one more thing the curve also works the other way so if you're 20 power above your opponent for example you will do 10% more damage against them and so on down the curve i hope this explanation helps you anticipate what is happening out there in the field when numbers and bullets are flying around all of these changes should be available in the next iron banner and we will continue to monitor your feedback during the next event now to be honest i didn't feel a massive difference in iron banner my only problem was it was connections again as it normally is with iron banner i don't know what they change if iron banner i mean they don't talk about it is it skill based matchmaking i mean i'll quit playing now it's connection based is iron banner skill based i ain't sure they probably stated that in the past but who knows but that's the only problem i have it's connections although it went that bad some of the games i were playing were absolutely shocking people but hey i definitely look forward to the next iron banner event i mean so many more ways of earning that powerful gear and lastly they talk about known issues and their plans for fixing them darkness in the light this week in destined two four second players began their pursuit for the malfeasance as players started making their way through the quest for this exotic hand cannon it was discovered that the three player quest step darkness in the light could be launched with a fire team of up to six players damn that sounds actually cool but it's a problem so it seems while we're working to address the issue in a future heart fix we urge caution to fire teams who launch into this activity with more than three players as it was designed and tested for three player fire teams players who launch into this activity with four or more players may encounter memory issues which may result in poor game performance and unexpected client crashes stay tuned for updates people they're then going to talk about forsaken known issues in addition to the above items listed we're talking about malfeasance destiny player support is tracking the latest issues reported by players and the help forum provided below is a brief overview of the latest known issues indeed to forsaken grave tide some route bounty we are investigating an issue where some players in a fire team don't receive credit for killing the grave tide summoner and then can't replay their adventure is recommended that players play this adventure solo to receive proper credit actually had this problem myself prime engrams from the crucible we are investigating an issue where prime engrams and by completing crucible matches are going straight to the postmaster about first going to players loot stream gambit clan engrams we are investigating an issue where the clan engram for gambit is not being awarded as expected wish and the exit damage we're investigating an issue where wish enders blood head perk may sometimes not apply exit damage and fast-moving targets wow off keeper draw speed we are investigating an issue where bold draw speed benefits granted by the off keepers exotic hunter arms armor are not performing as expected well actually use these and I thought they were great and they still ain't working as expected wow can't wait for the fix on that damage incorporated emblem we are investigating an issue with their damage incorporated emblem not appearing in collections players who delete the emblem will not be able to reclaim it dismantling gambit weapons we are investigating an issue where some gambit weapons do not give materials when dismantled guitar errors in the last wish raid we are monitoring reports of guitar errors received by players participating in the last wish raid so these are issues they know that and know that are working on fixes for great stuff people but that is it that is the end of the video quite a big twab this week if you do want to read through all yourself you can find it linked in the video description people but yes some great changes coming especially to iron banner which I cannot wait for but guys I know we have come to the end of the video if you enjoyed it leaving a like really helps out if you are new around here and enjoy daily destiny videos be sure to subscribe and hopefully guys I will see you on that next one


Meat Boy is under the spell of some type of vegan demon. He has been hypnotized by a succubus. That has probably blocked me on Instagram and will never watch this video. But the point is we are making vegan cookies today. And if I told you guys this year ago or someone even told me this year ago, I would probably think they were crazy. Also, there's a couple of reasons why these cookies end up being vegan. One, I'm tired of getting ripped off by these Amish farmers for high quality butter, milk as well as the pasture raised farm eggs. It's just too much money every week. Two, coconut does have antimicrobial properties. It's what I've been using lately in a lot of my meals. And number three, I found that these cookies digest very easily. They don't cause me any issues. Number four, very affordable in the context of buying the high quality local ingredients. Our main component, the flour, is just regular organic all purpose flour. The ingredients on this read as organic wheat flour and organic malted barley flour. The only thing you want to be really careful about is to avoid the iron fortified, the B vitamin fortified flours that are making Americans very, very sick. It'll say it on the label. And also if you're purchasing a processed food or cookie or something that is already made, it will say fortified iron on the ingredient list. That is the major thing to avoid. The reason we're going organic is to reduce the agrochemicals, the herbicides, the pesticides, the fungicides, insecticides, the negatives that can be in the food. It's still not perfect, but it's far better than what the average person is eating. For the fat component, as opposed to butter, I'm using just organic refined coconut oil. I found it's easier to digest. It's not as likely to cause dysbiosis. And this is also much cheaper than raw butter from the local farm. But I will say the butter tastes a lot better. For the chocolate, this is where it really matters. You want to make sure to have something that tastes good because if you put this cookie recipe together and the chocolate chips aren't sweet enough or they're like kind of bitter or they don't have the right melting point, it's going to ruin the cookie. I found that extra semi-sweet chocolate chips work. Usually I just get the generic store brand, but this is about 55% cacao. The ingredients on here should just be cacao beans, cane sugar, cocoa butter, and that's pretty much it. We also do have some organic bittersweet chocolate baking wafers, but I do prefer using the chips. Sometimes I'll throw a few of these in here and I will regret it because it's a little too bitter in the context of a cookie. Speaking of bitter, our contrasting sweet ingredients are sugar and normally I use the natures glucose but I've been eating so many of these cookies every day that I forgot to pick up some more of the natures glucose from the store, so I have several options that you guys can use. I have organic coconut sugar, I have organic regular cane sugar, and I also have a pure glucose powder that is actually organic and the natures glucose is about 75% glucose and it's raw. This is not raw, it's actually 99% glucose, pretty much pure glucose. Let me know if you guys would be interested in this. The only reason I haven't sold it as a product is because the shipping's very expensive to get it and I don't know if it's worth me buying 5,000 pounds of it if I'll ever be able to sell it but I do have access to an organic 100% glucose powder. If you guys are interested, definitely let me know in the comments below and I can probably get it for you guys. I think it's gonna be at least $8 to $10 a pound though. And instead of eggs for our liquid component, we're using organic light coconut milk, just some more coconuts, some more antimicrobial properties. And then for the seasonings, we have just regular sea salt and some vanilla powder. To get started off, we need one cup of coconut oil. So I'm going to melt that in our pan here. For the coconut milk, we want three quarters of a cup. And I have a couple of different sugars here and I'm low on them so I'm actually going to mix them. We got about a quarter cup of the regular cane sugar, about half a cup of the coconut sugar, about three quarters of a cup of the pure glucose powder. And this is a lot of sweetener for a typical cookie recipe but the glucose doesn't really taste that sweet. You know, the sweeter component of the sugar is the fructose. And I'll eyeball about two teaspoons of vanilla powder and about a teaspoon of salt. So I like mixing the sugar, the oil, and the milk together with the seasoning and then just making sure it's really well incorporated before adding the flour. And we want about one and two thirds cups of the flour. So this is about the perfect texture we're looking for. It's not that dry and it's not that runny. So now you add however many chocolate chips as you like. Usually around three quarters of a cup is plenty. Now ideally you let this sit for at least a couple of hours, let the flour really hydrate. And what I normally do is leave it on my counter for a day, two or three days, and I'll progressively take some cookies out every day and have a few. So the flour continues to settle, reduce the anti-nutrient content, and the flavors develop. So it's all around better if you let this sit around for a little while. So here I just have a baking sheet pan with some parchment paper and an ice cream scoop just to portion out the cookies properly. And since I have two or three cookies with each meal and I eat one or twice a day, I usually try to make around five cookies at once. I don't cook the whole batch. So I'll just take an ice cream scoop of the dough. I'll portion it to about that much and then I'll take it out of the scoop and put it on the tray. Now as this dough sits for several days, it will tighten up and it won't be as loose and liquidy. So keep that in mind here. I'm just gonna kinda pat down the cookies a little bit because when we put these in the oven, they'll spread out anyway and we want more even cooking. Kinda make like a little tiny circle in the center of the cookie with your finger because that's where it usually takes the longest to cook. So if we make it thinner there, it'll cook quicker. And now we're just gonna pop this in the oven at 375 for however you like your cookies. You know what I mean? I would eat this cookie dough pretty much raw. You could get them nice and brown and crisp on top. You could just barely cook them through. It's completely up to you. So it's 855 now. We'll check on this in a little bit. So it's been almost 25 minutes from an oven that was not preheated. So realistically, I would say about 15 minutes at 375. And there we have our cookies at what I would say is the minimal cooking temperature. So these are gonna digest a little bit better, a little bit easier than something that, you know, you really get brown and dark and crispy but the difference probably isn't that much. The main thing to consider here is when you cook it for the extra five or 10 minutes to brown it, it kind of ruins the chocolate in my opinion. So I would try both, see which one you like more. Oh, it smells so good. So we have our professional taste tester. She's gonna try the cookies because I am fasting today. So I guess we could kind of be happy. These are really nice and moist on the inside. I'm gonna enjoy these later. Mmm, they're so good. Sometimes we should say you can actually see the melted chocolate chips. The best is the melted chocolate. So again, if you cook these longer to brown and crispy, that chocolate isn't really gonna be nice and melted. It kind of dries out and the fat separates. So this is kind of like the perfect temperature but since you're not using baking powder baking, so the cookies are really dense and thick, so they're gonna be kind of almost really raw and loose on the inside but it's still delicious. And good. No, Gina, no more. Mmm, I don't go though, I could eat breakfast with them. Well, Gina, you just had breakfast 20 minutes ago, so that's enough food for now. So thank you guys for joining us today. Maybe we will have these on Frankie's Pre-Range Foods sometime in the future as well as an animal-based variant. I don't know, let me know down in the comments below but you guys can check out frank-defaunote.com for Frankie's Pre-Range Meat, Frankie's Pre-Range Foods, all that stuff. If you can please leave a comment down below, drop a like on the video and share it on social media if you can.  Bye, everybody. These cookies are...


Hi, I am Dr. Vinay, pediatric oncologist at Maniparal Hospital's Bangalore. Today, let me talk about childhood cancer and its types. Cancer in children is different from that in adults. It is because the spectrum of cancers are different. Also the child has his needs of normal growth, development and activity. According to the types of cancer in children, the most common cancer in children is blood cancer also called leukemia. The second most common tumor is the brain tumor. Other cancers that can affect children include lymphoma, solid tumors like sarcoma, willens tumor, neuroblastoma, hepatoblastoma and germ cell tumors. It is important to diagnose early and treat appropriately in a child friendly environment to have excellent results. Thank you.