AelRó, ydw i'r unrhyw deimlaes o arser, ydym yn eu portfolio gyda'r threaten. Felly, yn gwreidio'r portfolio rywfyrdd yma yw'r isgwst iawn. Felly, hefyd, mae'n mynd i fod yn gweithio'r questions 3 a 10, mae'n gennymMother yn y gêm 所以 mae'n gweithiau'n gweithiau'n gweithiau'n gweithiau sy'n ei gweithiau'n gweithiau felly mae'n gweithiau'n gweithiau'n gweithiau ac mae efallai gweithiau'n gweithiau a'r hyfwyr yn gweithio'r gweithiau hwn o'r gweithiau. I can advise the chamber, there is a considerable amount of interest in asking supplementaries. Therefore, the usual plea of brief questions and brief answers. And if they aren't brief, I will be cutting you off. So be warned. Question number one is Michelle Thompson. To ask the Scottish Government when it will publish the final details of its proposed agricultural bill. The Scottish Government is committed to introducing a new agriculture bill to the Parliament in 2023. A public consultation on the bill seeking views on proposals to assist in delivering the vision for agriculture and a legislative framework required to replace the current common agricultural policy from 2025-26 onwards closed on 5 December. So we are now carefully considering the diverse range of views provided and aim to publish those responses in the spring. Michelle Thompson. I thank the minister for that response and note that information is being both gathered and emerging in stages. But what's important is that any scheme is sufficiently robust so as to give confidence to food producers. Will the conditionality measures proposed allow for this confidence to be maintained? I know our farmers and crofters want more of that detail and that clarity. I had made an announcement on 10 February about the publication of a route map. As well as publishing a list of measures on where our thinking is currently at on new measures for the new framework, which I hope gives some of that confidence that the member is asking for as well as that additional clarity. Although the route map doesn't yet answer all the questions that I know there are, it provides a clear set of programme dates to explain when current schemes will transition or end and when more information will become available. It also sets out the framework diagrams, which were first published as part of the Agriculture Bill consultation, that outline what that future support will look like. In particular that, it's the base tier of support which is aimed at providing financial certainty for farmers and crofters who are engaged in food production and actively managing land. As we transition to the future, I just want to reiterate my previous commitments that there will be no cliff edges when it comes to support and we will continue to develop the details of that future support with our farmers and crofters. Briefly, Rachael Hamilton. Cabinet Secretary, in committee this morning we heard from stakeholders from the agricultural sector who actually use those words, they don't want to go off a cliff edge. So I think farmers want clarity, they want to have confidence to go forward with this new agricultural payment plan. Whilst there is a route map, I believe that farmers want to have a seat at the table. They want to have engagement with the Cabinet Secretary, with the Scottish Government, and so will the Cabinet Secretary commit to do that, to give farmers confidence to move forward with their plans? Cabinet Secretary. Absolutely, I'm more than happy to do that. I think that that's where the process that we're taking forward is really important. I know that people are more desperate for more of that detail and more of the clarity. As I said in my first response, I do hope that what we've published gives more of that information, but what is really fundamental to our whole approach is co-development, co-design and discussion with farmers and crofters. Because when we implement new measures, I absolutely want to make sure that we get those measures right and that they actually work and can be implemented well. So I'm more than happy to commit to that engagement. We do, although we have the agricultural reform implementation and oversight board, which is key in helping us to design some of that. I know that there are other stakeholder groups there that want to get involved with that conversation. Of course, I'm happy to get out and about and engage with farmers and crofters directly. Question 2, Graham Simpson. To ask the Scottish Government what discussions the Rural Affairs Secretary has had with ministerial colleagues and councils regarding improving connectivity for Scotland's islands. As Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs and Islands, I'm responsible for ensuring that cross-government co-ordination on islands and I regularly engage with my ministerial and local authority colleagues. A key forum for those discussions is the island strategic group, which brings together ministers and the leaders and chief executives of the island local authorities. Graham Simpson. I thank the cabinet secretary for that answer. She'll be well aware of the Orkney Islands ferries task force. As island minister, I hope that she's involved with that. So what can she say to provide reassurance that this will not be yet another talking shop and that it will lead to tangible results? I.e. new ferries. Cabinet secretary. The member will of course be aware that it's the Deputy First Minister who's involved with that task force. I don't think anybody would want that to be a talking shop and wants that to lead to actual action. So I don't think it's fair to necessarily write that off at the moment. So I know that the last meeting was on 31 January, but of course I'm happy to take that up with the Deputy First Minister and provide a further update on that work. I have a number of supplementaries. They will have to be brief, as will the answers for Shrouda Grant. Thank you, Presiding Officer. Again, we've got ferry chaos on the western isles. The relief ferry serving south-east in Barra has technical issues so it can only sail in daylight and even with stretching days, that place is a huge restriction on its operation. This was a relief ferry and UST is already facing disruption due to the pier closures. Can the cabinet secretary say what she is doing to mitigate the impacts of this ferry chaos on Islander so that it cannot plan, cannot work, cannot socialise without allowing the federal needs. I absolutely recognise how critical these links are and I'm sure that the member will have already raised those points with the transport minister, but I'm more than happy again to do that on her behalf and to come back with a response to her specific queries. Fiona Hyslop. We heard from Island Councils in a recent net zero energy and transport committee meeting that Transport Scotland only engaged with councils on their own predetermined agenda, which hasn't today included fixed link or tunnel connections for islands. As some of those councils want to seriously engage on the potential of those, can she discuss with her ministerial colleagues how they might ensure full and proper engagement of Transport Scotland even simply on initial assessments of what might be possible? I'm more than happy to engage with my ministerial colleagues on that, but from what I believe Transport Scotland did engage with local authorities on the subject of fixed links as part of the second strategic transport projects review and all local authorities have responded to the consultation that accompanied that draft publication in January last year, but again, I'm more than happy to take that up with my colleagues and follow-up. I'm very happy to be at this with her. Thanks, Presiding Officer. Tunnels would greatly improve economic and social connectivity in Shetland and it wouldn't be subject to closure to adverse weather conditions. When will the Scottish Government sit down with local action groups, councillors and officials to seriously consider feasibility studies for short tunnels in Shetland? Again, that's a point. I'm more than happy to raise with my colleague, the minister, for Transport to see how any discussion on that could be taken forward and a follow-up with the member. Thank you. To ask the Scottish Government what discussions the rural affairs secretary has had with ministerial colleagues on the potential impact on the drink industry supply chain on the introduction of the deposit return scheme. Minister, I have kept ministerial colleagues updated with developments during the implementation process. Most recently, I sent a letter to all MSPs earlier this month that provided a comprehensive update ahead of the launch of the UK's first deposit return scheme. I will continue to keep Parliament up-to-date as we head towards the go-live date in August of this year. Can you adjust your microphone just slightly? Having spoken to rural businesses, they have raised concerns about the 24 substantial steps required to register for the deposit return scheme. The first step requires a business to sign up to a three-year legal commitment that will significantly change their operations and could even bankrupt them. If businesses fail to sign up by next week, the risk that they may no longer be able to sell in Scotland could significantly impact the rural supply chain. Will the minister engage with those businesses to limit the impact on the rural supply chain and speak to her cabinet colleagues to listen to and address those concerns? I thank the member very much for the questions. The concerns raised by small producers I am taking very, very seriously, as the member will note from the significant intervention for small producers—well, for all producers, but focused on small producers' needs that was announced on Tuesday this week, increased cash flow and simplification for small quantities. I am going to meet again with small producers tomorrow to see what else we can put on the table to help them to comply with the legislation and I would encourage all producers to begin their registration process with Circularity Scotland by the deadline of the end of this month. To ask the Scottish Government what discussions the rural affairs secretary has had with ministerial colleagues regarding the potential impact of the deposit return scheme on small-scale drinks producers. As I confirmed in my response to Sharon Dowey, I have kept ministerial colleagues updated with developments during the implementation process. The letter that I sent to all MSPs earlier this month details measures that we have put in place to support businesses, including small producers. I will continue to listen to the concerns of small producers and whether there is any further action that we can take to support them ahead of the scheme going live. As part of that listening exercise, could the minister listen to this? This is Philip Sisson, who runs Simple Things Fermentations, a small craft brewery in Glasgow. He has written to me today and he wants me to say this to the minister. DRS will have a catastrophic impact on my business and the craft sector. We survived the pandemic by producing quality products and offering excellent service, but that will not be enough to get us through the chaotic implementation of a badly flawed DRS. He says that small producers are being thrown under the bus. I thank the member very much for the question. I met with small producers a week ago on Friday in which we discussed their concerns in great detail, including their specific concerns about cash flow for their businesses and the costs around labelling of small quantities. The Circularity Scotland announced an intervention on Tuesday, £22 million worth of support for the cash flow of small businesses and a solution for labelling to specifically support craft brewers, small wine importers and craft spirit producers. That was a significant intervention to support these businesses. I look forward to meeting those businesses tomorrow again to find out if there is anything further that we can do to support them to participate in the scheme. A number of supplementaries, same appeal, brief questions, brief answers. First, Christine Grahame. Thank you very much, Presiding Officer. I must agree with Jamie Greene. I have been written to by the Scottish Government to operate since 1965 with a global reputation exporting all around the world, all materials sourced locally, even the malt is put into cattle feed. They tell me without anything else that the deposit return scheme will have a devastating effect on their business in all respects. I hear what the minister says, but will the minister please listen to these small craft brewers? Minister. I thank the member very much for the question. I take the considerations and concerns of small businesses very seriously. That is why I met with him a week ago Friday and we have put this week a significant intervention. Circularity Scotland has announced £22 million of cash flow support and specific response to their concerns around labelling. Those were the issues that were raised with me by small business and this was the solution put into place by Circularity Scotland. I will meet with these businesses again tomorrow to take forward any further concerns. Colin Smyth. Thank you, Presiding Officer. The minister will know that a Scotland-wide tender was issued to American Heads Fund own bifer to provide collections under the scheme. What assessment has the minister made of the impact that this may have on the small and medium-sized businesses in rural communities who were excluded from that decision and in some cases will actually lose existing contracts for recycling collections? Minister. Circularity Scotland is a private business and therefore their procurement processes are not a Government procurement process and they may conduct those how they wish to do. When the deposit return scheme comes online, the amount of glass and other recyclet in the system that is collected and cleaned for recycling will increase enormously. Curbside recycling and other systems will still deal with non-scheme articles. Your past jars, your other things, shampoo balls, all these materials will still be in the standard recycling schemes. The deposit return scheme specifically increases the volume and quality of recyclet of scheme materials which overall will increase our recycling in Scotland. Mr Lumsden, please no more heckling for my certain new position. Can the minister outline the discussions Scottish Government and drinks producers have had and will these continue particularly with small businesses to ensure the roll-out is a success? As I have outlined to other colleagues, I am taking a pragmatic approach on the implementation of DRS and I am regularly meeting with industry stakeholders including drinks producers to get direct feedback on the scheme and to identify challenges and solutions. As a result of industry feedback particularly from small businesses like Craft Breweries, Circulary Scotland announced a £22 million package of support for these producers. I will continue to engage with businesses and, indeed, tomorrow I will be meeting the small drinks producers again to discuss their readiness for launch. To ask the Scottish Government in relation to its cross-government co-ordination on island policies what discussions the rural affairs sector has had with ministerial colleagues regarding any impact on rural and island communities of the closure of outdoor education centres. Ministers and officials across portfolios are aware of and consider the important role that outdoor centres have in rural and island communities. Outdoor centres can provide educational experiences, create employment and volunteering opportunities and support connections into the wider rural economy. Such considerations were a key element of decisions to provide £4 million in tailored emergency financial support to outdoor education centres during the Covid-19 pandemic. Kenneth Gibson. I thank the cabinet secretary for that response. Welcome news is that the Arran outdoor education centre has been saved from possible closure by North Easter Council's SNP administration. Does the cabinet secretary agree that it is important to provide long-term guarantees regarding retention of such facilities and that the staff, parents and young people who strongly value such unique resources deserve to know that each year they will not have to worry about potential closure? Cabinet secretary. I know that this would be a concerning time and as the member raises the decisions that are taken on an annual basis. It is not for the Scottish ministers to intervene in local authority spending decisions. Councils are autonomous and it is their responsibility to agree their annual budgets taking into account their statutory duties as well as other national and local priorities too. Of course they are accountable to the public who elect them and have the financial freedom to operate independently while taking account of local need. Of course I would encourage North Ayrshire to consider staff and service users in the decisions that they are making as I am sure that they do at the moment. To ask the Scottish Government whether it will provide an update on the steps that it is taking to improve the management of inshore fisheries in light of the reported increasing pressures on fishers and fish stocks in Scotland's coastal regions. Cabinet secretary. Scotland's fisheries management strategy sets out the Scottish Government approach to sustainable and responsible sea fisheries management in Scotland. A delivery plan was published in September last year setting out how and when we would deliver action in the strategy. There is a clear signal on front loading actions which would deliver enhanced environmental benefits and significant improvements to our fisheries management approach including inshore fisheries. This contains a mix of actions from the strategy alongside the commitments in the beauty house agreement. Those will be delivered in partnership with our stakeholders. I thank the cabinet secretary for that answer. It is heartening to note the commitment to place the fisheries management and conservation group given the importance of the inshore region for both livelihoods and biodiversity. What plans does the Scottish Government have to develop ecosystem-based inshore fisheries management plans including spatial or temporal management measures to help to achieve our legal duty of managing our seas to good environmental status and what are the timescales for this work? Cabinet secretary. The member has quite rightly outlined our legal obligations as set out in the joint fisheries statement and the types of approaches that have been set out within that. In our response and in that document what we've talked about and what we've committed to across the UK is the overarching strategy that we can all sign up to which also provides us with the flexibility and also recognises the devolved responsibilities within each of these areas. The fisheries management strategy that I talked about is critical in relation to that as are a number of pieces of work that we're currently taking forward to. The member talked about the refresh of the FMAC that has been undertaken. We've also been looking at the role of our regional inshore fisheries groups as well as a number of pieces of work looking at our future catching policy. We've had the consultation on REM technology too as well as looking at other measures in relation to inshore fisheries. I hope that that offers some assurance in terms of the work that we're taking forward to do. I won't get all the supplementaries in. We'll get as many as I can. First in the cast. Does the cabinet secretary agree with her green coalition partner, Ariane Burgess, that fish stocks around Shetland are in rapid decline as a result of destructive methods of inshore fishing? Or does she instead agree with the Shetland Fisherments Association's well-evidence response that our comments are ignorant of the fact that Shetland's inshore waters still team with the same fish and shellfish stocks that have helped sustain their community in sustainable fishing practice? Sustainable fishing practices are exactly what we want to see. A key part of my role is going out and about visiting our islands, speaking to our fishers, speaking to our farmers as well. I know people greatly care about the environment in which they operate. Again, the measures that I outlined in my initial response to Gillian Mackay I think outlined the work that we're taking forward, why that's so important, the objectives that were set out were legally obliged to ensure that we adhere to those, which is why the measures that we're proposing are so important. Again, with all the work that we're taking forward, it's engaging with our fishers, with our stakeholders, it's critical in all of that work. Again, it's within all of our best interests to ensure that we have a healthy marine environment with healthy fish stocks so that we continue so that we have our fishers in that industry going forward into the future providing that valuable food source for us. Very briefly, I'm Mr Alan. The Government has already committed to introducing legislation to make REM and scallop dredge vessels and pelagic vessels mandatory, but does the cabinet secretary agree with me that during a period where there will likely be changes, how we interact with the marine environment, we must ensure that fishers are absolutely recognised for the value of the role that they play? Very briefly, cabinet secretary. Just to say that I absolutely could not agree more with the point that the member has raised, because we recognise the absolutely vital role that fishing plays in our economy, how many jobs it supports in our coastal communities, as well as contributing to Scotland's hugely successful food and drink sector. Quality Scottish seafood is prized right around the world and we'll continue to do all that we can to support the industry. Question number six, Alexander Burnett. Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. To ask the Scottish Government whether it will provide an update on avian flu in Scotland. Since the start of October last year there have been 21 confirmed cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in poultry and captive birds and 107 findings in wild birds in Scotland. We continue to monitor the number of cases in poultry in wild birds and the latest evidence suggests that we're beginning to see a decrease in the rate of cases across GB. In response to this decrease, we've adjusted the reporting thresholds for surveillance in wild birds to support the on-going monitoring of levels in wild species. Alexander Burnett. We now know that avian flu can be transferred to seals after four Scottish seal carcasses tested positive for the virus earlier this month one of which was found dead in Aberdeenshire in 2021. Can the cabinet secretary confirm when she first learned about the transfer of avian flu to seals and outline what action she has taken to mitigate the impact of this? I think that the first point that I want to make in relation to that is that the risk to human health from the virus is low and Food Standard Scotland advises that avian influenza poses a very low food safety risk for people who consume poultry products including eggs. In relation to what the member has talked about there and what we're seeing in cases of other mammals, samples taken as part of routine wildlife surveillance last year have detected the presence of avian influenza in four otters and four seals from Scotland as well as five red foxes from England and Wales. Those animals were found in areas with high incidence of H5N1 in wild bird populations and of course scavenging on wild birds is thought to have been the source of infection but the detection of that virus doesn't mean that it was the cause of death of those animals. We know that wild birds and animals can carry several diseases that can be transmitted to people so people shouldn't touch or pick up any dead or visibly sick birds but I know that this is of concern but the risk that we're associating with this is still considered to be extremely low so I would just want to offer the assurances on that front but again with this we have our chief veterinary officer, our animal health teams who are working flat out on this issue, who are continuing to that surveillance and to see what action if any can be taken to try and stop it spread. Can I ask the cabinet secretary when the response plan for wild birds will be published and if it will contain tangible measures for protecting and conserving wild birds and on carcass collection during the HPAI outbreak? Briefly it's possible, cabinet secretary. Yes, I just to say that the response plan is still under development but I'd be happy to follow up with the member and hopefully provide a more indicative timescale. I'm very briefly Evelyn Tweed. In light of avian flu being discovered in Stirling last week can the minister briefly outline the biodiversity steps people can take to reduce the spread of this disease? I doubt you'll be able to outline them, cabinet secretary but as briefly as possible. Just to say that, again, I do think that it's really important to highlight and remember that it's the biosecurity measures that are absolutely critical and offer the best protection against the spread of this disease and that can, some of these measures can include things like cleaning and disinfecting clothes and footwear and equipment and in reducing the movement of people and vehicles and also preventing that contact with wild birds. These are just some of the measures but again, I think it's really important that people take their biosecurity seriously. To ask the Scottish Government what is it doing to support local, independent food and drink businesses in rural areas? We're providing a broad range of measures that help support local, independent food and drink businesses in rural areas so this includes £15 million of funding towards the Scotland Food and Drink Recovery Plan over 2020 to 2023 to £17.5 million to businesses across Scotland over the last two years through the food processing, marketing and co-operation grant scheme and £500,000 towards the Scottish Grocer's Federation Go Local programme which we know has helped many independent convenience operators in rural areas to transform their stores and stock more locally sourced produce. I thank the minister for that answer but all of that will be for naught if they don't sort out the deposit return scheme because ultimately what small producers want is simplification of skew registration and barcodes, they want an opt-in possibility, they want the removal of the arbitrary and hard deadline that's coming up. So can I ask the cabinet secretary if she's had a formal meeting with Laurence later to discuss those options and when was that? Of course I discussed these matters with my ministerial colleagues given the impact that there is and the nature of my responsibilities within my own portfolio. I've outlined today already in the responses that she's given to previous questions to some of the measures that have been introduced which I think are really important and the minister has of course been engaging with a whole wide variety of businesses impacted by DRS taking those concerns on board and of course there is the debate covering this item this afternoon too so the minister is listening and is taking action. Thank you very much, that concludes portfolio questions we'll brief pause before we move on to the next portfolio. The next portfolio is health and social care questions remind members that question 1 and 3 are grouped together and I'll take supplementaries on those questions after both have been answered. Anyone seeking a supplementary on any other questions should press their request-to-speak button during the relevant question. The same appeal, there are again considerable interest in supplementaries if you do get invited to ask a question keep it brief similarly the responses from the ministerial team are well. To ask the Scottish Government what steps it is taking to increase the number of student nurses. The Scottish Government has increased nursing student numbers every year for the last 10 years but we know that the undergraduate programme is not the only solution to increasing the number of nurses into our NHS and indeed into other sectors too. That's why we're working with partners to widen access to those vital nursing programmes. The education and development framework for the NHS bans 2 to 4 healthcare support workers which will allow them to develop within the scope of their role to support the registered workforce and also importantly to achieve progression within the job family. At the same time we're also exploring how to expand options for our healthcare support workers to continue to enter programmes on an air and as you learn basis as well as access programmes for undergraduate nursing degrees. The UKAS have reported that applications to study nursing in Scotland were down 24 per cent this year with just over 5,000 applicants. There are over four and a half thousand vacancies in nursing and importantly over two and a half thousand nurses have left the profession in the 12 months to September 2022. The Scottish Government's announcement of a ministerial-led nursing task force is welcome news however any recommendations from that are some long way off and it's clear recruiting student numbers in Scotland and however it's clear student nursing numbers in Scotland are in crisis. What immediate accent is the cabinet secretary taking to reverse this trend? Her thanks to whoever for what I think is a really important question. She's right, the level of vacancies are not where we would want them to be to put it mildly and that's why the nursing task force and nursing and midwifery task force I should make that point is exceptionally important of a discussion with the RCM and indeed other trade union partners too. What I would say to Sue Webber notwithstanding the point that she correctly makes about the numbers being 24 per cent down, remember recruitment to the nursing programmes will continue until June so we'd expect that number to increase as we get towards June. What I'll also do is make sure that update Ms Webber in writing perhaps given the need for brevity on how we are doing in relation to international recruitment and let me just make it very clear that I think with a nursing and midwifery task force is a real opportunity to widen access and entry into nursing and hopefully by the good work we're doing on pay that will help to retain and make the exit door out of nursing at very narrow indeed. Question 3, Colin Beattie. To ask the Scottish Government what action it's taking to ensure that the number of applicants applying to study nursing in Scotland does not drop further in the future especially in the light of UCAS data reportedly showing that the number of applicants has fallen by 24 per cent compared to the same point last year. Can you be relevant to the brief because I've answered some of that question in the last response. What I would say is that Colin Beattie will hopefully reassure that higher education institutes will continue to recruit to the programmes until June so we'd always expect there to be an increase in the numbers between the figures released in January and the figures in June. What I would also say is that not all funded places are applied for via UCAS against something that I think Colin Beattie will undoubtedly know, for example open university funded places and those applications will also contribute to final student numbers. Lastly I'd say that the pay-offer that we have put on the table for 2324 will ensure that our nurses as well as other NHS agenda for change staff remain the best paid in the entire UK and I think that's a great draw to get those individuals working in the NHS. Colin Beattie. I thank the cabinet secretary for his response. It's important to ensure that we have provision for the future workforce of nurses for our health service and that we encourage applicants to study nursing in Scotland. For this in mind Scotland has seen a 5% increase in nursing in midwifery except in student numbers since 2019. Can the cabinet secretary outline the steps being taken to encourage applicants to confirm that we are recruiting at the level that the country needs? Yes, thanks to Colin Beattie for that question. I would reiterate what I said to Sue Webber that the level of vacancy is not we would not like to see. We want to reduce that level of vacancy as much as we possibly can and our nurses of course make up the largest profession in our NHS. I'm proud that we've increased our funding nursing places for 10 consecutive years but we're now very much actively taking programmes. I go back to a point made in the previous question that these recommendations of a nursing task force may take some time. Actually we're looking for some really quick wins. I think there are some quick wins that we can make to widen that access very much into the profession. I will keep members that are interested updated on the work of that task force. We've got a number of supplementaries. They'll need to be brief, likewise the responses for us. Jackie Baillie. The 24% reduction in the number of nurses applying is of course the biggest drop in applicants for nursing in any part of the UK and the lowest figure at any point in the last five years. With 6,300 nursing vacancies in Scotland, the reduction in numbers applying will add to the workforce crisis. Others have asked what he intends to do to boost recruitment. Let me focus on the short term because will the cabinet secretary bring forward a retention strategy to stop nurses who are currently leaving in droves because they feel exhausted and burnt out? Jackie Baillie makes a reasonable point about the retention side of things, but that is precisely why we have set up the nursing and midwifery task force. It is there to look at issues of, for example, flexible working. So how many nurses have Jackie Baillie and I spoken to who say that they feel the NHS is simply not flexible if they want to change the shift patterns? It will look at, for example, what more we can do in around retention. That will be a key focus of it. Instead of setting up the strategy, I think the right way is to engage with the staff, hear from them directly about the suggestions they want to see and try to get some quick wins. I do not think that there is much between us. I cannot quite hear Jackie Baillie as she shouts from a sedentary position. Please ignore the sedentary intervention. I am happy to pick up with our afters. The Royal College of Nurses exposes the crisis in nursing by underscoring the significant risk to patient care. With nine in 10 nurses almost 86 per cent reporting their last shift was unsafe for them and their care of the patients. We cannot afford a nursing task force to only be a talking shop. With me likely addressing our new First Minister would he please outline how he will improve safety for patients and for nurses? I might not be putting that on my endorsement leaflet but thank you for the offer. What I would say to Sandesh Gauhani is what definitely would not hit us is the approach that the UK Government has taken which is not to meaningfully engage with nurses on strike, they feel that they are devalued. We are taking a different approach where we are engaging meaningfully with our nurses. We have avoided dispute, we have avoided strike and here we are making sure that they remain the best paid nurses anywhere in the UK. We will continue to engage with our nurses. It will not be a talking shop I am surprised that he describes the RCN as a talking shop. They are going to be integral members of that nursing task force and they have welcomed it. In fact the cabinet secretary asked for brief responses as well. Does the cabinet secretary agree that the UK Government should match the 10,000 non-means tested bursary that students get in Scotland to attract nurses to the sector across the UK? Does he agree with me that the UK Government were to match the pay deals being offered to nurses in Scotland and they need to increase the nurse pay by 14 per cent? I do not know why the Conservatives asked about recruitment and retention. That is fundamental. I agree that other Governments should look to what we are doing in Scotland so that nurses do not start their lives and death. With our pay offer an experienced nurse will earn £37,664 compared to an England £32,934 a 14 per cent difference. We should make sure that we do not only reward nurses as best as we possibly can but make sure that those who are training to be nurses get all the support that they possibly can. Question 2, Monica Lennon. I refer to my register of interests as a member of the GMB and Unite trade unions. To ask the Scottish Government what its response is to trade unions and charities forming a coalition of concern to request that the National Care Service Scotland Bill is paused to allow further co-design and consultation. Minister Kevin Stewart. I declare an interest as a member of the European Union. We remain committed to the bill. People with direct experience of social care and community health care have repeatedly told us that the system needs to change. We must end the postcode lottery and drive up standards across Scotland. I welcome the engagement that trade unions and charities have had to date and I strongly encourage the third sector, councils, the workforce, charities, unions and people to engage in the co-design process. Monica Lennon. Thank you, minister. The response from Civic Society, Civic Scotland, is catastrophic. It's not engagement that we need. It's a minister and a Government that will listen. The list includes the STUC, Unite, GMB, Unison, Who Cares, Parkinson's UK, Commonwealth and yes, even the SNP trade union group. It cannot be ignored, minister. We now have candidates for First Minister saying that the bill should be paused. So what work is happening around Government tables to listen to learn from other bills and to pause this. In terms of valuing the workforce a 40p pay rise is an insult. What is going to be done to deliver credible pay rise of at least £15 an hour for our hardworking care workers? Thank you, Presiding Officer. We are committed to delivering the national care service bill and to deliver by the end of this Parliament. I continue to listen and I wish that folk themselves would listen to others who may not share their views because earlier on, just before coming into the chamber, I met with the dementia-lived experience panel. Those people want to see the end of the postcode lottery of care. Those folk want to see national high quality standards and they want to see the national care service. The national care service will allow us to ensure that there is sectoral bargaining over paying conditions which will be the case for the first time. 72 per cent of people responding to the consultation wanted a national care service. We will deliver that. It is important to recognise the urgent need to make improvements to social care now and not to wait for the NCS to start that process. Can the minister provide an update on the action being taken now to address challenges in social care? We are taking action now to address challenges in social care. Our manifesto commitment was to increase social care funding by at least £840 million over the Parliament. We are on course to substantially exceed that. What I would say is that the budget yesterday set out £1.1 billion in adult social care support from the health portfolio. The budget, the 23-24 budget increased the social care spending and has increased it by over £800 million to £21.22. That is working in the here and now to improve social care in Scotland. Apologies to those who I wasn't able to take question 4, David Torn. To ask the Scottish Government what action is it taking to address the waiting well agenda in light of a recent round table event on supporting patients that was hosted by Scotland versus arthritis. Minister Marita. The Scottish Government's preventative and proactive care PPC programme is having a waiting well framework and associated delivery action plan. That will help to improve health and wellbeing outcomes for people waiting for health and social care interventions. A steering group has been set up to steer this work with the first meeting having taken place on the 21st of February 2023. I thank the minister for the answer. Scotland versus arthritis six-part support package for people waiting for joint replacement surgery suggests that key elements of support personalised self-management support, access to physical activity programmes, mental health support, signposting to financial support and advice and including waiting well support in NHS recovery plan. Does the Scottish Government agree that with this approach and how much are NHS boards being assessed in the delivery of support for patients? The versus arthritis support package was tested by the Golden Jubilee national hospital around orthopedic pathways. Following this, a proposal was submitted to the Centre for Sustainable Delivery under a planned care improvement, which is now being considered as part of the waiting well workstream within the preventative and proactive care programme. Versus arthritis are members of the waiting well steering group and the improvement areas highlighted such as communication will be taken forward within that workstream including monitoring how waiting well is implemented. I am very brief supplementary. Under this health secretary's watch we are facing a waiting times crisis. There are stories of people having to fundraise for private surgery rather than waiting in pain. Where is the urgency from this Government on treatment options and treatment centres and how are you going to ensure that people have access to meaningful waiting plans that are influenced by a waiting well strategy that is supported by the third sector? Here again from my colleague on the Labour Benchants there is not a mention or an acknowledgement of the global pandemic that this country and all of the western world have come through. It did not have an impact, no impact whatsoever. So what we are doing to increase capacity to improve the situation for people who are waiting for surgery is investing in national treatment services four of which we will be opening very soon. Question number five, Rose McCall. Thank you. To ask the Scottish Government what steps it is taking to eliminate long waits in any departments within NHS Fife. NHS has experienced, of course, one of the toughest winters in its history pandemic backlogs, Brexit-driven staff shortages, increased levels of respiratory viruses. They all coalesced to place significant demand on services this winter. Performance against the four-hour target clearly not where we would want it to be nor the public would expect it to be. Nevertheless, performance has recovered since that really challenging period in the winter peak. We are now working with NHS Fife to reduce any waits through that £50 million collaborative programme focusing on three key areas for NHS Fife. One is the rapid triage unit in GP referrals, which is now opened. Increased use of discharge lounge to speed up that discharge process, which we know is so vital for flow through the hospital. And also the reduction in the length of stay and reduction of borders. Thank you for the answer, but it's too slow. Scottish Conservative colleagues recently met a group of constituents whose loved ones received appalling treatment in Fife. One of those constituents is Trish Nolan, her husband John, who is suffering from terminal bladder cancer, was left in a trolley in accident emergency for over four hours. No nurses or clinicians came to check on him or gave him any pain relief. John came very close to dying of sepsis that day. Will the cabinet secretary apologise to John Nolan for his ANA treatment? Will he at the very least agree to meet families who have lost loved ones due to the failure in Fife health services? Cabinet secretary. I absolutely take the opportunity to apologise to anybody, including the Nolan family, for an unacceptable level of treatment. That's not what I want to see as health secretary. I'm pleased that Ros McConnor and other members are raising those cases in the chamber. I do meet families regularly, as you'd imagine, those who have not had a good service within the health service. I never hesitate to apologise if they have not received the service that I would expect, let alone that they would expect. What I would say is that we are seeing some improvements in NHS Fife. I don't know if that was during the winter peak that I mentioned in my opening response, but we have seen, for example, NHS eight-hour waits are almost 75 per cent lower and the 12-hour waits are almost 100 per cent lower than in the weekend, in January, which was the epicenter of that winter peak. I'm seeing shoots of improvement that still need to make more progress. Of course, I'll be happy to continue to meet families that have not had the service in the NHS that we would expect. We've got a couple of supplementaries in, but they'll need to be very brief, as will the responses for static railing. This week I met health unions in Fife, and they're very clear that a key factor in the problems they have is the rise in waiting less for social care in Fife. Does the cabinet secretary recognise that? Does he recognise that poor pay terms and conditions is a key factor in that? Therefore, rather than wasting £1.4 billion setting up a bureaucracy, a centralised bureaucracy, will he put money now into paying care workers for the job? I think that that's really for us worth raising a really important point here. I will give some degree of comfort by letting him know that the statistics that came out in December 2022 show that Fife recorded a total of 118 delays and that's still far higher than Alex Rowley and I would like to see, but it is a decrease from the 131 from the previous month. We are, again, seeing some level of progress. What I would say is we'll continue to invest in social care. There's been a number of pay rises for social care staff. What I would say is that for the next financial year, we'll be spending £1.5 billion on the national care service. That would be incorrect to say that. The amount of money that we will be spending on the national care service in 2023-24 may well look to see how we can rebalance some of that to current spend, but it will be nowhere near in the magnitudes that Alex Rowley says. Briefly Willie Rennie. To see what more we can do to support it. The Royal College of Emergency Medicine of Scotland being quite clear on deaths and harm, as Ros McAll has just highlighted. Has he done an assessment about the impact in five of those long waits? 360 people waited over four hours in the last week of January. 50 waited over eight hours. Cabinet Secretary. I don't disagree with the premise of his question. I know that the Royal College of Emergency Medicine has raised, too, that excessively long waits in our A&E means that patients will come to harm. That's why we're focused on reducing. I mentioned not insignificant reductions in both 12-hour and eight-hour waits, specifically in five. It's where our focus is. It's where our target is. I agree with Alex Rowley. The focus from us has to be relentlessly on social care to get the discharges out of the hospital, help with flow through the hospital. We're still seeing challenges. People are still presenting with higher acuity. I'm going to ask the Scottish Government what action it is taking in light of January's prostate cancer UK data on regional inequalities and prostate cancer diagnosis. Minister Marie Todd. We've noted this prostate cancer UK research, and we're discussing it with clinical expert groups across NHS Scotland, including the National Cancer Recovery Group. Prostate Cancer UK will host a meeting in the coming weeks with officials and primary and secondary care clinicians in NHS Scotland to further analyse the data and to explore how best to support earlier diagnosis efforts of prostate cancer. We recognise that staging prostate cancer is often complex. However, when we compare survival rates, which is, of course, the most crucial measure for any patient, Scotland's five-year survival rate for prostate cancer is 84.3 per cent. In fact, that is not significantly different from the other UK nations. Neil Bibby. I thank the minister for that answer. Chargically Scotland has the worst figures for prostate cancer diagnosis in the UK over one in three Scottish men are diagnosed too late for a cure. That figure is just one in eight in the south-east of England. What is more, the west of Scotland performs particularly poorly in terms of prostate cancer waiting times. NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde significantly underperforms other health boards in treatment standards. I'm sure that they were investigating those figures. What has been the outcome of the Government's investigations and what is the minister now doing to end the shocking postcode lottery in prostate cancer diagnosis? I would urge some caution and hopefully offer some reassurance to people who might understandably be concerned about this. It is worth noting that the report itself highlights the risks of overdiagnosis. That's where the diagnosis of a cancer that the person wouldn't otherwise have been aware of and they wouldn't have died from. The use of those tests, like the PSA, which is more used in the rest of the UK, increases the risk of this. As I said, ultimately the most crucial measure is that of survival, which is similar across the UK. I hope that I can offer some reassurance to the public on that. To ask the Scottish Government what its position is on the recommendations in the 2023 series on breastfeeding by the Lancet, which includes calls for Governments to provide more accurate and timely information about breastfeeding and infant behaviours and end to any exploitative marketing used by the baby formula milk industry and more recognition of any economic contribution that breastfeeding makes to society. First of all I would say that we welcome the 2023 Lancet series on breastfeeding and will absolutely consider its recommendations in due course. The Scottish Government is committed to supporting breastfeeding as the normal nutrition for babies and we've invested over £7 million of additional funding over the past four years to NHS boards and partners to improve breastfeeding experiences. Globally it's recognised that breast milk and breastfeeding provide clear health benefits to both mother and baby over infant formula and we believe every child should get the best nutritional start in life and that families should be able to make fully informed choices on how they feed their baby. I thank the minister for that answer. Part of ensuring that breastfeeding rates are increased is by normalising it in our public spaces and that is something which the breastfeeding friendly Scotland scheme aims to achieve as well as providing staff and volunteers with key training and knowledge. After raising awareness of the scheme and signing up my own constituency office in Renfrew, take up of the scheme in Renfrew has increased massively from one venue to 60. Can I ask the minister how the Government is working with health boards to track national take up of the scheme, how it will work to improve involvement in areas with low take up and what the next steps are to ensure that normalising and increasing support for breastfeeding remains a priority in Scotland? As briefly as possible minister. I'd like to thank and commend the member for the work she's done to promote the breastfeeding friendly scheme. We continue to encourage our infant feeding advisers to promote that scheme because there are over 2,000 venues signed up. We know that to protect support and promote breastfeeding requires a complex multi-level approach and the Lancet series sets out recommendations which were focused action can have an impact at population level including through regulation on the marketing of infant formula. We're going to continue to prioritise investment in breastfeeding support and embed the UNICEF UK baby friendly initiative across health board settings. I'm going to take question number 8, Alasdair Allan. To ask the Scottish Government whether it will provide an update on NHS Western Isles recruitment of a new permanent GP in hospital doctor for the islands of Barra and Battersea. I understand they'll be going out to recruitment this spring. NHS Western Isles that is of course and NHS Western Isles as the member will know how to take on barra medical practice at short notice and its priority has been a smooth transition providing a level of continuity for patients. I thank the cabinet secretary for his reply. Is the health secretary clearly aware that our health services are under a huge amount of pressure and the use of expensive locoms long term as has been the case in Barra for some time is not ideal but connected to this matter can the health secretary confirm when a decision will be taken by the Scottish Government on the healthcare outline business case to allow the proposal for a new home for health and other services in Barra to move to stage 2? In the interests of brevity let me say how important the Barra and Battersea campus project is. The early in business case has been reviewed by the NHS capital investment group the group are considering options at moment but again in the interests of brevity I will write to the member and I'll look to see what more I can do to speed that process up but it has to have appropriate consideration as I know the member understands. That concludes portfolio questions that will be a brief pause before we move to the next item of business.


Basically, there are two types of populations, semiparous populations and atheropyrous populations. Semiparous populations, individuals, or organisms under this category, have only one reproductive period during their life cycle. So in one reproductive period, they produce large numbers of individuals, like thousands of individuals. So they do not exhibit age structure because individuals in the population are of the same ages. Examples of these are animal plants, like rice. Whenever, during rice-cropping season, the seeds are sown at the same time so that the seedlings, the flowering stage, would be of the same age. And so they do not exhibit age structures. Other examples would be insects. The adult insects lay in mass of eggs by the thousands. Then the adult dies. Then the eggs are hatched, produce larvae, and then transformed into pupa, and then to the adult. But all of these individuals in the population are of the same ages. So they do not exhibit age structure. The other type of population, the atheropyrous population, are the ones that exhibit age structure. These are organisms that have several reproductive periods in their life cycle. And in each reproductive period, they only have only few individuals, one or two, or at most ten. The examples of these are mammals. We humans are mammals, and we have several reproductive periods. So a woman give birth to one at most five quintuplets. But normally, we only have one newborn infant at each reproductive period. So that the individuals of our population belong to different ages. And so we exhibit age structure. So in this particular part of the lecture, we are going to show you the age structure of the Philippine population as of 2016. Our population is estimated to be 102,250,000. And the natural increase that is by birth would be 1,724,603 individuals per year. That is 4,396 new infants are born daily. The net migration is about negative 144,883 people. So these are our OFWs and all those that are migrating to different parts of the country, different parts of the world. There are, in the diagram of the age structure, you'll notice that you have the male and female segments of the population. And then the age structure would be divided into different ages. So at the bottom would be 0 to 4 and so on. And at the top would be our age and population, or the very old. Now there are three ecological periods. The first would be the pre-reproductive period, which is from 0 to 14 years old. And at present, there are about 35 million individuals of which 17.2 million are female. The rest would be male. And the median age would be about 24 years. The second ecological period would be the reproductive period, which would be from 15 to 49 years old. So this is a very important segment of the population because these are the ones contributing to population increase. Our density at the moment is 383.3 people per square kilometer. And that would be the average from different parts of the country. The third ecological period would be the post-reproductive. And that would be from 49 to over 49. It means that the individuals have already reached the period when they can no longer give birth. Now it's very important to understand the meaning of these ecological periods. It means that with the reproductive period from 15 to 49, there are about, at present, there are about 30 million women. And if this 30 million women are the ones that are responsible for increasing population. Now, in ecology, one way of effective way of decreasing population growth would be to increasing the age of women bearing children. We have mentioned that the start of the reproductive period is 15. If we increase 15 to 25 through education and counseling, we are actually lessening the period of reproduction from about, let's say, from 49 minus 15, or let's say 45 minus 15, that's 30. If we increase the age of women bearing children from 15 to 25, we actually subtracted 10 years of reproductive period. So that's a very effective way of decreasing population. Let's say, for example, in 10 years that has been removed from the reproductive period, a young woman can already give birth to three children. That is, if the birth would be every three years. Imagine that from 15 to 45, 30 years of reproduction, a woman can already give birth to about 10 children. But if you remove 10 years, that's already 10 minus 3. So the potential of the woman to give birth is only to give birth to seven children. That's how effective increasing the age of reproduction for women. Another important aspect that we can get from the age structure is what we call age dependency ratio. In the diagram, we can see that about 34.6% are young children aged from 0 to 15, and these 15 years old. And they constitute about 35 million. And those that are over 65 years old constitute about 4.3 million population. These two periods are the 0 to 15 years old, and over 65 years old are dependent on the productive period, the 16 to 64 years old, which is about 62 billion. These 16 to 64 years old are the productive sectors of the population. They are the labor force that support themselves, but also the expenditure of children and the aged person. In the Philippines, at now, half of the working population is only about 39.3 million. So these are the segment of the population that are supporting the very young, the children of school age and the old, who are already retired. Now, child dependency ratio in the Philippines is about 57%. To be exact, it's 56.7%. So it means that those in the productive period, about 62 million Filipinos, are supporting the children and the aged. That's on the part of the family. The Philippine government also has investments on this segment of the population that are dependent on the productive sector. In the case of the education, our government has to build more classrooms. We can see that here in this figure, we have a crowded classroom in public schools. You can hear from the news every start of June of this year that we lack classrooms and that there are some classrooms here in Metro Manila where in one classroom or one class has 65 pupils or students. That's very crowded and that's an implication of high population growth. So it's both on the part of the family supporting the young children and on the part of the government and that's what we call age dependency ratio. Now, high population growth is also closely linked with economic development. There is the issue of unemployment and high dependency ratio, which I just discussed, but this is also related to exploitation of our natural resources. Now, Porter and Ganapin in 1998, it's a world research paper number four. In 1998, Porter and Ganapin stated that in the 70s to 80s, which are actually the martial law years, there was rapid population growth and the type of governance that we have is what was described by the authors as elite-centered political system. And the development strategy is what is known as ecologically and socially flawed. Now, why is this so? Because the people who do not find employment are dependent for livelihood on the natural resources, which are our forests, our agricultural lands, and our coastal marine ecosystems. And the result of this is massive deforestation and destruction of the coastal marine resources. So environmental degradation hurts more the rural poor because they are the ones that are dependent on natural resources for livelihood. So let's go back to the 1970s. At that time, we have only 35,680,000 population. But if you look at the age structure, notice that it has a very, very broad base. And then the rate of increase is about 2.98% or r is equal to 0.0298. That's a very high population growth. And the median age at that time was 17. So we have a very young population at that time. And most of this, those who are entering the labor force cannot find jobs. And so they have to depend on natural resources for their livelihood. In 1996, from 1970 to 1996, our population doubled. From 35 million, it ballooned to 71,437,000. So the doubling time was only 26 years. And at that time, the rate of population growth was 2.43% or r is equal to 0.0243. And the median age was 20 years old. The fertility rate is 4.14. We'll discuss the fertility rate in a few minutes. Now notice also, again, that the base of the population, especially those belonging to the reproductive age from 0 to 14, is still very broad. And we experience rapid population growth. So that here in this slide, we'll see the rate of deforestation as pictured in the Philippine Forest Covert, as cited by Suarez and Sahise 2010. But it was from the article of Moya and Malayang in 2004. Notice that the forest cover in 1900 was about 30 million hectares. We have a total of 30 million. The forest cover in 1900 was 20 million. Now, in the 1960s to about 1990, from about 18 million that was in 1960s, the forest cover dropped in 1990 to only about 5 million hectares. So this is what we mentioned earlier as massive deforestation. And why? Because our destruction, the destruction, was primarily due to conversion of the forest cover to agricultural lands, because there is a need to raise more food for increasing number of mouths to feed. At the same time, our lugs were exported to generate foreign exchange. You have the forest also converted to residential areas. So you have agricultural lands that were converted to housing, to subdivisions. And then the people have to open up the forest to in exchange for the agricultural lands that have been converted to subdivisions. At the same time, mining operations, again, to raise foreign exchange and also to generate jobs, are contributing to deforestation. So notice that here, the livelihood of our people because of lack of employment, they are dependent on the natural resources, one of which would be the forest. Now deforestation has many ecological consequences. One of that would be habitat destruction that leads to loss of biodiversity. The Philippines is one of the mega-diverse countries in the world, but we are losing such biodiversity. Now one important consequence of this high-population growth and flawed economic development is the destruction of fishery resources and marine environment. Primarily due to increasing pressure, as more and more people use this as livelihood. And that's the reason why in the next segments, we featured the echo-tipping point of the Apo Island fish sanctuary, how we are able to reverse this kind of destruction of fishery resources. Now not only that, environmental degradation led to pollution of air, water, and land. Now there are many contributing factors to environmental degradation. We have population pressure, I keep on mentioning that, high-population growth, poverty, lack of livelihood opportunities, and what is known as open access of bio-resources. Now open access means there is very poor regulation in the use of natural resources. Almost everybody can exploit the resources. There is very weak governance in the use of these natural resources. This resulted in over-harvesting of commercially timber species. That's the reason why we are losing our endemic dipterocarp trees. We have lost much of our mangrove ecosystem. The mangrove timber has been used for fuel wood. There is over-collection of our orchids. By the way, we have 95% endemism in terms of orchids. We have over-collection of ferns, insects, birds, mammals, the shellfishes, and destruction of our coral reef ecosystem. Animal products are also over-exploited. They are gathered such as the verseness, the guano, the honey, the beeswax, and even the animal skin. Aquarium fishes, these are the ones that we usually culture in aquarium. They are collected from the wild in the marine ecosystem. And destructive method, just like the use of cyanide, was used to collect these aquarium fishes that led to exploitation and degradation of our marine ecosystem. There was no control on logging, and there was over-harvesting. Of course, you have the illegal fishing, such as I mentioned, cyanide fishing, in order to capture the aquarium fishes. As a result of the massive forest destruction, there is severe erosion that results to landslides and many other catastrophic events that we experience and witness in the recent years, especially with climate change. So we have flash floods and the rain events as a result of climate change. Now, what are the government actions? I just would like to point out two important government actions. In 1995, during the presidency of President Fidel V. Ramos, we adopted the Sustainable Economic Development. And then very recently, during the term of President Aquino, the third, there is the passage of the Reproductive Health Law in 2014. Now, let's move to TFR. TFR means total number of children completed by a woman over her reproductive years. And the TFR, or total fertility rate, is highly influenced by social factors, such as women literacy and economic well-being. There is a study that educated women have less children than those with women in low educational attainment. And women that are gainfully employed and therefore would have high economic well-being would tend to bear also less number of children. In 2016, our TFR is 3.1. That means that on the average, a Filipino woman bears about three children. That's on the average. Of course, there are those that would bear six or more, but there are also those who would have only one child. And 3.1 children remains one of the highest TFR in all of Southeast Asia. So we really have a very high population growth. Now, take note that in 1996, the fertility rate is 4.14. It means on the average, a Filipino woman at that time would have four children. But in the 1970s, which I have pointed out earlier, the fertility rate was very high. On the average, at that time, a Filipino woman has 6.5 children. And that's because our population growth at that time was about 3%, 2.98%. Now, we have already our reproductive health law. We are aiming for ZPG. And what is ZPG? Zero Population Growth, where TFR, Total Fertility Rate, is about 2.2. It means that on the average, a couple will have only two children. OK? In based on our current population growth, which is about 0.07%, R is equal to 0.074, by 2050, we'll be able to attain ZPG. And the population at that time is predicted to be 148,264,778. So when we say TFR, 2.2, it does not mean that there will be no new infants born. There will still be new individuals. But this is what we call replacement fertility level. Because two children would mean that they will only be replacing their parents, the father and the mother. So this is ZPG because there will be very minimal increase. The population will be maintained. 2050 is 148,260,478. Our population would be maintained around that number. But at that time, 2050, the population density will already be 497 people per square kilometer. Remember, in the previous slide, our population density is only around 393. So by 2050, it's almost 500 people per square kilometer. That is what it means with increasing population and moving towards CPG. Now, so this is the age structure when we, by 2050, notice that there is the, I have been pointing the bars at the pre-reproductive age. Notice that in this particular age structure, the base is more or less the same, or even. Starting from about 25 years going down, the bars are more or less the same. It means that the number of people added would be just the same as in the previous year. That's why it's CPG. The number of individuals moving to the reproductive period will be equal to the number of individuals that are born, or the newborn individual. Now, with the reproductive health law properly implemented, we have sexual education already taught in our elementary and high school or secondary education. The curriculum for sexual education will be appropriate for the ages of the few pills. There will be access to family management methods available to almost everybody. We will be able to reach CPG at a much shorter period, and the population may be lower than 148,260,000. So hopefully, our reproductive health law will be properly implemented. We move to the next topic, which is a characteristic of population. We call it survivorship curve. This applies to all types of populations. There are three different curves as shown in the diagram. We have type one, which is the convex, wherein the individuals of the population are able to reach the total lifespan of the individual. So mortality increases as the individuals reach the lifespan. So they are able, there is minimal mortality at a very young age. So most individuals of the population are able to reach the reproductive period. So that is type one or convex. Type two would be the straight line. It means that mortality is the same at almost all stages. Now type three is the concave, wherein you have a very high mortality at young age. Here, the environment, the physical environment, the habitat of the organisms would be very unfavorable. That causes high mortality of the young. And the surviving population would be able, only a small segment of the surviving population will reach the reproductive age. That's why it's called concave. We humans belong to type one survivorship curve with very good health care system. Most of the children, the infant mortality has been lowered. So you have most of the individuals of the population reaching the reproductive age. And mortality increases as an individual reaches the lifespan.


This is the VOA Special English Technology Report. Privacy activists are concerned about Google's new privacy policy as of March 1st. The company says one main policy is replacing more than 60 separate policies for different products. Activists say the changes will make it easier to track the activities of users across Google's many products. From Gmail to YouTube. Mark Rotenberg heads the Electronic Privacy Information Center in Washington. He says Google's aim is to create a single unified profile of its users. We believe that not only is that a threat to privacy, we actually believe it is illegal. Because last year Google entered into an agreement with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission in which they said they would not engage in that kind of data sharing without the explicit permission of their users. Google says its new policy will make it simpler for users to share information across services like Google Search, Gmail, and Google Calendar. And it says the new policy will help personalize each user's experience. Over time it says users can expect to see better search results, fewer unwanted advertisements, and more content targeted to their interests. But Mark Rotenberg says in return people who choose to use Google will lose control over the information they share. The type of information you might provide for an email service, for example, such as your address book, is different from the type of information that you might provide for a social network service. Mr. Rotenberg says these two kinds of services should be kept separate. In our view, Google is actually undermining a very well-established expectation of privacy, particularly for popular internet services like electronic mail. Critics also see a bigger problem with Google's new policy. The plan would not give users a choice to opt out of the data sharing. Mr. Rotenberg says in our view, if people want to make their personal information available, they certainly should have the right to do that. What we're objecting to is the effort by the company to take away from the users that choice that they should have. Google says it will not be collecting any more data than it does now. And it says users will still be able to control many privacy settings. For example, they can disable their search history and set Gmail Chat to off the record. European Union officials have asked the company to delay the new policy to make sure it would not violate any EU data protection laws. For VOA Special English, I'm Mario Ritter.