So hello everybody, welcome back to yet another episode of our series Power People which profiles the hussos of the music industry and today on this special episode, we have with us a singer, songwriter and an author, Vinit Singh Hukmani. We welcome you here today, sir. Hi, Vizassmi. Thank you. It's good to be here. So, sir, my first question to you is, tell us about your musical journey so far. You have been here for quite a time now, so tell us about it and who is your biggest inspiration? So my musical journey, formally and professionally, is just three years old. I've been in the radio industry before that and been associated with the media and entertainment industry for a very long time. It's only after I had exited from radio one as a founder and we sold it to a large media group in 2021 is that I got into music full-time. And in that short time, I've had very good guidance from a very good management team in the US. So that has helped us as a team to achieve a lot of unique things in a very short period of time. You know, multi-grammy submissions, chart topic stuff. My inspiration has always been a lot of English bands early from the 80s where I used to listen when I was in school and stuff like that. But I think I'm equally inspired by a lot of people, a lot of new age singers even today. So it was Michael Jackson in those days or whether it's Bruno Mars today.  And I think I'm more inspired by people who seek originality and seek and put all their hard work and effort into that. Yeah, definitely, definitely. It has quite a, you know, I would say these three years was, you know, quite challenging for you or it went very smooth for you. So what are the challenges you faced? So the challenge was that I did not know it would be so difficult, you know. So when I met my agent, Martin, I mean, for the first time when we started speaking, he told me and they basically liked the idea of a small demo kind of music that I had done. So he told me that you have to start with a thought that you don't know anything. Yeah. And for a person who's been around for some time, I thought that was a little difficult. So that night, I told him, give me one day, you know, think to think about this. I didn't sleep that night. And then when I woke up in the morning, I came with the thought that, yes, I really don't know anything. So I think challenges become easy when you accept that you don't know anything. That means you're a clean slate and you can start from scratch. But having said that, he put me really on a huge amount of work. So every 45 days, I had to release a song of a different genre. It was rock, pop, hip hop, gospel, R&B. We did one by one like this, 13 songs in about 13 months. So every 45 days, and it had to be released. It had to be put on radio globally. It had to go up to the charts and again, repeat that whole cycle. I think that was my biggest challenge to possibly have to work so hard. But I learned a lot from that. I mean, I'm really glad I started with the thought that I don't know anything. And I've been able to learn something because of that thing. So I think challenges are good for you. Challenges teach you things. So challenges are never something that you should be afraid of. So the biggest challenge in the music industry right now is for the independent artist. Are you getting me? Without any record label support, without any management support, they are doing really well these days, I see. So do you feel any drawback for yourself also as an independent artist? Yeah. So I think the big advantage of an independent artist is you have the freedom to create what you want. So that I would say is the biggest advantage. When you look at what the industry is like, so what is a label really? A label is giving you a structure and they are then giving you funding. These are the two things. They're telling you this is what you should release when, this is how you should do it and this is the money that we'll put behind you for you to move forward. And obviously they have a stake in you, so therefore they are also because of you. And today the independent music scene has changed. When you do, so there are two types of independent musicians, I would say. Independent musicians who are doing this as a hobby and independent musicians who are doing this very, very professionally and commercially. So because of my agent managing me, I have come into the latter category. Though I'm an independent musician, I manage very, very professionally. So we have a proper plan what to release when. We also have earning a revenue kind of plan that this is what comes out of royalties. This is what will come out of sync leasing. This is what will come out of the song rentals into multiple languages. This is what will come out of your song being played in Netflix or this thing.  Now, for that you need to. Tell us about this process more. I'm very intrigued to know about it more. Yeah, give you an example. So I had a song called Jab the World which I wrote during the COVID thing and that song is translated into at least six or seven different European languages. So now that is the job of the agent to. So what this is called is basically called catalog monetization. That means when you produce a catalog which has already been in the radio charts and we're already topping. So that music already has some kind of equity. So then basically pitch that music to Amazon, to Netflix, to other artists, to things that they keep on doing that again and again so that your money makes, so your music makes money. So this is the e-commerce side of the music business actually. So whether you're an independent musician or whether you're a label musician, the same people actually can buy your music and actually help you to make that money. So that's why I started off saying that if you're an independent musician who's just a hobbyist maybe just releasing stuff. You know, you may be just putting up stuff and hoping that some kind of thing happens with this but when you're a professional management agency, they guide you on what to produce, when to produce, how to put it on radio, how to monetize and they make an annual plan for you. And of course they take a very large commission where like for example my agency takes away a 40% of what I own but then I'm able to earn much more because of their efforts and because of their guidance. And nowadays we have reels also. You know independent artists only put their songs on reels and they're going viral. For some reason the Instagram platform is also working so well for the artist I would say. So what's your point on that? Do you follow any social media campaigns for your own songs? Yeah, so I like I said because the agency that works, they work on all facets of it. So they work on music, they work on Instagram in a very short period of time. In three years I have over 1.6 million followers on Instagram. So that is because of their systematic work that has been done. So they start with whatever chart successes have happened, they start with putting those posts, they start with all the achievements that have happened and then so now even the latest song which is Born in Bharat, Born in India. Within like 32 hours we are already at the 12 lakh Instagram reviews. Yeah regarding that only tell us about your latest song Born in Bharat, Born in India and I really want you to sing also for I mean two lines. Sure. So the new song is basically written for in praise of our everyday Indians. People, all of us Indians we really work very hard and I think just to thank you for your contribution. I'm talking about everyday people you know when you're traveling on a highway we forget to thank that there are so many highway engineers and people who build this highway. When you're eating some nice fruit you forget to say thank you to the farmer who grew it. When you're you know you forget to thank your teachers even on teachers day because they have done so much. If you have gone to a doctor ever and the doctor has helped you I think even two months down the line you don't even think of the doctor anymore unless you are very ill. So I'm saying you know you need to thank the people around who are contributing to making the it's the people who make the country great and if you all say thank you to each other I think that recognition and that energy will be will be really really high. You know sometimes you're working on a say on a Sunday right and you had a very bad day and at that time somebody just says hey you did a great job thank you for doing that because you know it was it was it was fantastic what you did suddenly you've got so much energy and so much this thing you will probably work the next Monday and Tuesday without even knowing that you worked on the weekend. Born in Bharat, born for India is a thank you to all our in co-contributors all our Indians farmers lawyers doctors you know scientists technologists that thank you for doing all that you're doing for India because there could be only one reason that we all work so hard that is to make the country go forward and to make sure that the economy improves and all the things are important. And it is coming near Republic Day it has come near Republic Day only tomorrow is Republic Day. So it's a very I wrote the song as a beginning new year beginning as a new thing to start a fresh energy to begin the year with but of course a song with such an essence and such a patriotic will work on any celebration of the nation which is whether it's public day or whether it's a day and I think every day should be Republic Day Independence Day because you know you cannot just have a feeling or that energy for the country for two days you need to have it throughout the year you know and people do and people do I just mean that it's time to celebrate that so I'll sing two lines from the song which is the real first lyrics that I wrote of the song and then the rest of the song. It is like this. Koi bole Bharat, Koi bole India, Bharati hai Mata, Hamari Madhar India, we are born in India, we are born for India, we are born for Bharat, we are born in India it will be a huge anthem I would say it's very nice and totally appropriate for a you know this auspicious day that that is tomorrow and it was lovely so I would like to know that how did your experience in the radio industry influence your journey as a singer and share some memorable movements or achievements during your tenure in radio one. So I think radio has been my love since I was a kid and I did a small show when I used to be in 10th standard and I always wanted to run a radio station but I didn't really get that opportunity till 2007 where you know Mr. Tariq Ansari, we all got together and started 94.3 Radio 1 and I was co-founder and shareholder. I think that those 12-13 years before we sold the company and of course in 2019 we sold the company to HD Media but those 12-13 years were fantastic to understand for me personally the power of radio. Radio is actually the real first social media, actually it is the place which is live, you can talk to people, the listeners on air, you can talk about what's happening locally, that buzz and the speed at which things happen in radio is really really fast but most important lesson I learned which was when I traveled to other countries for radio seminars and things like that about the power of radio in those countries back in the US or the UK where no song, no artist can be a star without being on radio even today. It is huge, every song is launched on radio between the US and UK there are about 267,000 radio stations even active today and the cumulative reach of these radio stations is about 1.7 billion people a week. All the streaming put together is only 50 million a week. So where is 50 million and where is 1.7 billion? So today also a Lady Gaga or a Beyonce or an Adele they will never miss their radio promotion campaign.  So if you look at a city of Chicago 47 radio stations are my first song you know Dreaming Out Loud was launched. I really realized the power of it because suddenly 17, 18 RJs together speaking and so many people listening to the song together. So discovery on radio, a discovery of a song on radio is huge. It is unparalleled compared to anything else even today. Streaming and all they have their advantages of easy access. So if I were to say one word that defines radio's discovery and one word that defines streaming is access that you can get the song wherever you want but you know all listening to Spotify or Apple or Amazon and I'm listening to Spotify we don't really know what we are listening to each other because we are on headphones and it's listening but radio is like a loudspeaker there are so many people who are listening at the same time. So my greatest learning from running the radio station and now in my music career is that the shared listenership of radio the power of radio for discovery of a new artist for discovery of a new song is completely unparalleled and while streaming has its advantages I don't think any artist whether you're an Indian artist or whether you're a global artist you should ever ignore radio and make your plan based on completely on how you want your songs to perform on radio and by the way all the top charts in the world Billboard, TRT, Cashbox Magazine all are based still today on radio. So without those without radio you can't have the charts without the charts you can't really know which artist is going up and down. So whatever streaming is doing I respect that but you have to use the combination of both radio and streaming to actually grow your profile. Yeah its relevance is here right now with us we can see it radio industry is nowhere going so your creative pursuits also include being an author. So can you tell us about your writing journey and any upcoming projects for us? So my writing also is linked to my music I was trying something innovative so my first album which was with nine songs the album was called Nine and that's the one which I got the world record for because all in under one in Europe. So along with that I wanted to do something for the for actually for the Indian audience to rediscover the music. So I wrote a book of nine action thriller stories that book was called Nine at the end of each story was one-one song in a QR code so you could finish reading the story and then go to a QR code and listen to the song with the same theme. So that song that you know this thing book really did well on Amazon we sold over 22,000 copies it was number one on the new releases and bestseller lists for almost about eight weeks and that taught me one thing that I think we must find new ways to present our music and the business reason to do that was you know today music is free people don't pay anything for a song like before used to buy a CD for 400 rupees or something like that. This book retailed for about 410 rupees and therefore I was able to get a new revenue stream of this particular thing you know we independent musicians we need to think innovatively to do these things and I got a new set of listeners people who are actually book readers who had never ever heard of my music before they bought the book and they heard the music and therefore that gave me a further boost to this whole thing and now my agency is pitching this book of stories to to be made into maybe short movies or short things like that. So that's what I'm saying that you know you need to look at an ecosystem when you're an independent artist not just look at a Ghana release gear or bad gear you have to do so many things. So post that when I did a song called Run Run Run which was a song about running and about energy and Millen Soman really liked that song he ran to that and he's put on Instagram Reel also with that song. So I created a superhero character along with that song called Run Storm and released a comic book called Run Storm and the Hope Star it was a whole adventure of this person who goes to various galaxies you know using his running as a power and you know vanquishing on evil and stuff like that. So that comic book was done for the same reason because it targeted a younger generation a younger even kids we sold a lot of those comic books in schools same thing you could read the comic book and there was a qr code and then you could listen to the song and watch a small animation film. So I think the written word allows you to reach a different audience the written word is still something that people pay for you know whether it's amazon or stuff like that. So what I'm seeing is that the written word whether I wrote my first book or the comic book it helps to reach a different audience and the written word still today is something that you can charge for it's not as a brilliant marketplace you can you know so these books they sell for a particular price and if people pay for something they get a little more involved. Music has become really a commodity today by itself. So much of music is available to you at 60 rupees a month or even free you can listen to any album you want because people are not paying for it their involvement goes down and it becomes a commodity. So you had to create other things you had to create like I did the book I did the comic book and the song we have launched online store which is called born and born dot today where the stuff that I'm wearing it says is born and born for it. This has over 55 products which wear you know badges cushion covers so many things sweatshirts all those things so that you can wear your Bharat the baseline is wear your Bharat India energy every so a lot of people are ordering stuff because they're liking the song and then they want to wear some that and that too on republic day and we are not keeping this as any kind of profit making thing it's mostly to spread this positive energy of through the store but again I'm following the same idea that with every song I'm trying to create an ecosystem which allows for more engagement more revenue more things rather than so the song is still central to everything but it's not the only thing there are other things that you need to do like a 360 degree thing so that you know people get involved more with the music. In your terms I would say how has music business has changed in the coming years and what we can expect in 2024 from it. So I'll speak more about what I know internationally as a little behind in that but sooner or later it will reach there because those are the global trends. So today when a new musician is launching globally they do not expect that musician to do all three things earlier what used to happen is when you're a musician you're saying you know I'm going to make a song I'm also going to sell a lot of music and I'm going to also perform live you're going to do all these three things now the competition is so much that your agents and everybody else advises you to choose one of these three things very carefully right live is the retail side of the business meaning that today an amazon is an e-commerce store they don't have retail stores but live music is the retail side because you have to sell tickets you need a venue you need a band you need to travel that's the physical side of the business you cannot go into the physical side unless you have established yourself on the e-commerce side so the good all the good professionals will advise you that don't try to do everything together first learn how to create great music call them radio establish your chart credentials then develop a catalog of music catalog of music means you're a catalog producer and e-commerce is the main source of revenue like I explained your catalog is sold to multiple sources for you to make money only after you have established that you then step into live because live is a different ball game it has its own competition and things like that if you try to do all the three things together you will not have enough time to do that and most of the time musicians are spreading themselves so thin that the thing actually says they say I will do one song and I'll perform two three places live and my my job is done and then they wonder why the momentum is not coming and why I'm able to earn so the global you know trend is teaching you that you need to be you know focused on each part and expert on each part slowly and then come into the thing so even though it has been three years I've still not reached the phase of actually performing live I'm in the part of being making a catalog because what happens is the minute you start performing live your studio work stops my catalog producing will stop it's like saying you know suppose you are looking after your factory and suddenly you say okay I'll go and sit at the retail outlet then who's going to manufacture the product who's going to make that continuously in India we are because everything is strongly Bollywood led in this country dependent music music globally is always independent it has got nothing to do with films so whether it is a Lady Gaga or Rehana or all these things they are probably richer than Tom Cruz that power of music and the power of the industry is huge over here independent music is growing and it is growing out of the Bollywood shadow which is a good thing but professional guidance and I'm sure that guidance is coming in the form of proper agencies and proper companies who are going to take the independent artists and through this journey in fact my own company that we have called great song dot world is doing that we are trying to help Asian musicians to understand that first produce high quality global music then put it on radio get your chart credentials right build your catalog build your you know e-music or your e-commerce revenue then step into the live thing and then do that you know so I'm sure the other agencies other people coming to India see the talent is a lot in India the talent is huge the owners which are growing but unless those artists start making regular money and sustaining themselves they will not be able to do the next step they will otherwise get frustrated and say the whole film music is all the complaints that you hear is because the industry yes you need to so I'm sure the organized way is coming the talent is there but we need a method now I only say this thing to all the any independent musician I meet I say that look if you are doing music for your own heart and soul please do it there are no rules but if you are doing it commercially you need to follow a set of rules you cannot without understanding how the trade works your creativity will get wasted you need to apply that creativity and channelize it in a way that the trade works so that you get the best benefit out yeah that's great so any advice you have for aspiring singers looking forward who are looking forward to breaking into the industry any advice you would like to give them so I think I have learned this the hardware and now I can articulate it and now I can share that and I have no absolutely no problem in sharing everything that I know with with any the first thing is I think before you would start making a song you need to close your eyes and imagine that if there are 200 people sitting and listening to this song who are these people yeah I need to be able to imagine who these target audience basically not just a target audience that's because that's like a marketing term but I think close your eyes and from your heart imagine that these people have come to listen to you what is the reason what is there in your song or what is there in your personality that you think that these people are going to come and listen to you and what is the mood what is the vibe that you're going to create that those 200 people want to come to listen to you again so today what people do is we start with oh hip hop is doing very well let me do a hip hop song right there are there are there is the bachas of the world and there are so many hip hop artists why will they come to listen to you so you have to choose your genre and you have to choose your creative musicality and what you are trying to say you need to be original in that and then only people will come so that's the first piece of advice is clearly creative that even before you start a song please understand yourself and look deep within as an artist right the second is uh if your song has to be played again and again whether it's on streaming whether it's on radio it has to have what is called repeat listening value it has to be not a long song it cannot be more than three three and a half minutes and you have to start with a very catchy chorus the first thing that you compose of the song is the chorus and the catchiness and if people start snapping their fingers in eight nine seconds then you have a winner chorus then you make the rest of the song around that chorus don't just be so philosophical and just show off your vocabulary the music you have to have something which uh wipes with people and therefore is very catchy and stuff like that and the third is what i started this conversation with uh please start with the thought that you don't know anything and you will learn if you are if your ego comes in the way you will learn anything so destroy your ego finish your ego and start with the with a clean slate and say look i don't know anything and my agent is much much younger to me uh but i know that he knows much much more than me i have learned from him only because of that and not only from him from various people across the world from youtube from so today i feel i'm a complete artist they call me uh the my agency calls me with a joke they call it mmf mini music factory uh because today i can write a song compose it play all the instrument mix it master it create the video i can do that all that myself by myself and because of that my cost becomes alone and then i'm able to earn more and and things like that but that couldn't have been possible if i told myself look i'm a great singer i already know everything and uh so you have to start from scratch so three pieces of advice i think that if anybody one of your listeners or further uh you know uh independent musicians ever want to get in touch they can just you know reach out to me i'm there on instagram and uh company's called great song dot world on this thing my my website is veneed dot today um they're free to anytime we are happy to share this that's great veneed so that's really really you know inspiring at the same time so veneed any upcoming projects lined up yeah so i have uh uh now because earlier i was doing only international stuff and uh that follows a plan uh but now that i'm into hindi music uh the first song which was which was my tribute was to isro which was called isro india curse the hero that is that star and did really well with the people in isro and now this song which is about the country i i really think i found my genre for hindi i want to i i call this deshi pop not deshi deshi is local but deshi means uh in praise of the nation and praise of the desh and i want to continue to do hindi stuff in this genre only i'm not interested to do anything in hip hop or in songs or a filmy stuff and all that but of course the sound design of the song so the first song which was the isro song was in a reggae style this is more electro pop i'll keep changing the style of the song but the theme of the music will always be about about you know about the good things that are happening in our country and stuff that unites us all and makes us all one you know so i'll continue to do genre-based things so my agent wants me to do something in the in the english side uh in the operatic way i've never tried opera so i'm doing some training for that now i don't know whether i'll be successful but that is on the cards and then there is another song which they want me to do uh something in the jazz area but these are the two things for this year uh these are non commercial things in hindi i want to write a song about travel about traveling in your own country and the joy and the pleasure of that no headaches or visas and travel and foreign currency and all those non-sensical things you know you can just travel everywhere and especially after this whole you know wonderful thing of people discovering laxodil i think just make a list there are so many things in our own country we haven't seen so i i hope somebody sponsors me for that and i travel to all these places and i want to make the video also like that and about a song which is about the most beautiful places in our country to travel to so these are the more more or less what's on the cards let's hope it works so vinita i would like to ask that if you get an offer from bollywood perspective that you want to you know uh for some some movie like you know this only this genre only uh the you know uh like the fighter movie is coming has come so if you get any chance to get in the bollywood you would you would join or you would not join you would not what will you do or you would follow this path only see i'm a independent musician by choice and uh i like this i i uh i have a lot to do with this i mean i'm still i've just started i i've not even seen what close to what my aim and ambition is but you've said the perfectly if the bollywood movie is with this team yeah like fighter like sandbar like uh so when i watch randee was something i love that song i mean i i love to sing for because it is my genre just something that i love doing you know and uh if anything is coming upcoming in bollywood which is to do with uh with the country and with that energy and you know with with my mind you know i'd love to do it i mean i that would be but you know it's something that comes natural to me and i enjoy doing uh at the same time i don't think i'm a very good singer for love songs or i'm not a good singer for yeah definitely everybody has it so yeah one should recognize one's own weaknesses and strengths and then uh do that and so if somebody offers me something which is my strength of course i would jump to it i would love it yeah so thank you so much we need sir for your time it was our pleasure to have you here and happy republic day uh same to you just be happy republic day to you to the loudest dot in team to everybody at exchange for media and thank you for having me on power with you thank you thank you so much sir thank you thanks


So I'm going to present quite similar work, but for a different continent we are now traveling to sub-Saharan Africa and I'm presenting joint work with Eva Tasseva at the London School of Economics and my colleague at Susbury, Gemma Wright. So what's the starting point of our paper? Oh, sorry. Well, if a shock happens to household income, there are many ways how households can cope with this, right? And especially in the absence of social protections. So individuals can either self-insure, they can borrow from their friends, from their neighbors, they can use up the savings, they can rely on support from family members, or they can insure privately on the market. However, not everyone can save or borrow and the ability to rely on others may be quite constrained at times of crisis. So at times like COVID, for example, where many people suddenly find themselves unemployed or with earning shock, the ability to borrow from your friend or your neighbor is quite reduced. And on top of that, private insurance against a job loss usually does not exist in many, yeah, in general. So in these cases, government policy response via social protection benefits is key for redistributing resources and providing social assistance and insurance. So this, how is the situation of social protection in sub-Saharan Africa? Well, we actually know from the literature that a large share of benefits do go to the poor, but we know that there is limited benefit coverage of the poor and limited effectiveness. So even if people are covered, the amount they receive is often not sufficient to move them above the poverty line. We also know that poverty has actually increased in sub-Saharan Africa following the COVID-19 pandemic, but also the surging in prices due to the Russian war in the Ukraine. While at the same time, government spending often has not increased in the region. And there is very little evidence on how responsive social protection systems are to the negative shock in lower and in lower and lower middle income countries. So we think it's important to understand how social protection systems react to such shocks in order to improve the design of benefits. And that's where we're coming from with this paper. We examine the performance of social protection systems in five African countries. We are focusing on two lower middle income countries, Ghana and Tanzania, and on three low income countries which are Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia. And we study the population coverage of social protection benefits and their impact on consumption poverty in normal times and times of crisis. So even though this session is called something about COVID, we are actually not focusing on COVID as such, but we are simulating an artificial shock to all these countries. We are focusing on two scenarios. One is which we call normal times. So that's a pre-pandemic 2019 situation. And then we induce a crisis situation where we simulate a hypothetical reduction to household earnings or employment. And similar to David, we use micro simulation tax benefit models. We are using models for Sub-Saharan Africa, and all of them have been developed in the Southmore Project, which is quite an important project of UNU wider. We use nationally representative household service to calculate benefit entitlements, tax liabilities, and household net income in normal times, and how it changes during our crisis situation. And we study the effects of benefits on household consumption. So we are trying to answer two questions. First of all, we assess the extent to which social protection benefits provide support to household in normal times, which is quite important because the better households can cope in normal times, the better they are prepared with an income shock. And secondly, we examine how effective benefits are in protecting income and consumption during crisis, which is called the automatic stabilization characteristic of existing social protection system. Because the more responsive policies are to changes in people's circumstances, the more insurance and income consumption smoothing they provide when a shock happens. So why are automatic stabilizers important? We have already seen that they played quite little role in protecting poorer households during COVID-19 in Latin America. So we want to know how well they provide support in Sub-Saharan Africa. And automatic stabilizers are the in-built flexibility of existing benefits to respond automatically to a change in the household's income situation. We know from the literature that better automatic stabilizers decrease the variation in household incomes and consumption and provide social insurance against risk. And they also decrease poverty volatility over the business cycle and redistribute resources. However, a lot of this literature is actually focused on high income countries. So what we want to add to the literature here is the focus on Sub-Saharan Africa. To continue, why are automatic stabilizers important? Well, there are many advantages of automatic stabilizers over discretionary government responses because if you already have benefits in place that take changes to the household's income situation into account, there is no extra government needed when a crisis actually happens. So there is no time delay between government decision and new policy. And having good automatic stabilizers in place also ensures that support is provided as long as needed and targeted to those in need. And policy provision is already there via existing administrative and infrastructure. So you don't need to create new policies and new administrative channels when a crisis or a shock happens, which also means the policy makers are freed up to focus on the idiosyncratic and anticipated aspects of a crisis. So the additional risks when a crisis happens. However, there are also constraints to automatic stabilizers. So by design, policies may not respond automatically to fluctuations in household incomes or only respond with a delay. And we see this in many Sub-Saharan African countries because the design of the policies is not that they have a direct income means test, but they use proxy means test. So they use information in the household that is more stable and also information from the past to kind of proxy means test whether a household is eligible for a benefit or not. There is also limited effectiveness due to limitations of existing policies like, for example, gaps in coverage or low value of benefit payments. So if the benefits are not adequate to improve the household's income situation in normal times, they are most likely also not adequate to provide support when a shock happens. And of course, there is a very important constraint in Sub-Saharan Africa, which is the limited fiscal space to expand spending in crisis. So for example, the inability to borrow, which limits the impact of policies. However, what we've seen during the COVID-19 pandemic is that many countries did have some room for implementing emergency response to the income drops. So these are the benefits that we are focusing on. You can see that there are non-means test benefits in Ghana and Zambia. There is an old age benefit that is quite important in Uganda. And it's also the only national policy that is included in Uganda. There are also some farmers, agricultural related benefits in Zambia. And then there are some means test benefits like social assistance related benefits in Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania and Zambia. And social insurance pension in Ghana, Mozambique and Zambia. So these are the benefits that are included in the South Mood models. And these are also the most important programs that provide cash support or quasi cash support to households in these five Sub-Saharan countries. So what are the characteristics of these benefits? Well, we know that there is an eligibility test for means test benefits, which includes an income test in Mozambique and Tanzania. However, most of the support that is provided actually relies on proxy means test, such as food insecurity, vulnerability. Also, there are categorical definitions like households with children, female headed households or households with a disabled member or chronically ill member. Unemployment insurance programs often don't exist or they are just in development right now and they often only protect a very small share of the population. And there is overall little spending on social protection as percentage of GDP. So for example, it's 1.7% in Tanzania compared to 3.8% on average in Africa or 12.9% in the world globally. So as I said, we're using SouthMod models and household budget service for our analysis. And we simulate two types of shocks. One is an earning shock where we reduce 10% of individuals' earnings and the other one is an employment shock where we randomly move people out of employment and until we reach an aggregate earnings fall by 10%. Why are we not using the COVID shock? Well, we want to use the stress testing methodology developed by Atkinson and we want to keep as many factors constant across the countries as possible. So we want to introduce the same shock to all the countries to see how they react to this drop in incomes. So let's turn to the results in normal times. This is the benefit coverage of individuals living in households which is at 54% in Ghana and also quite high in Sambia and quite low in all the other countries. If you look at whether the coverage is due to non-mince-tested benefits or means-tested benefits or social insurance public pension, you see that a lot of these benefits in Ghana are actually coming through non-mince-tested programs while in Sambia, 40% receive non-mince-tested programs and 23% means-tested benefits. The situation is quite different in the other three countries. Now here we show the benefit coverage by income, green tiles or consumption green tiles and we see there is some progressivity in the coverage in Ghana, Sambia and to some extent in Tanzania. We usually see that it's more progressive when we focus on consumption groups rather than income groups which shows that most of these countries actually focus on consumption poor households. Now if we look at poverty, what we show here is the total poverty rate based on consumption and the extreme poverty line as defined by the World Bank and we also see how the poverty situation would look like if there weren't any benefits in the countries. To better understand where the programs that are currently in place reduce the situation and we only see small effects in Ghana and Sambia and very negligible effects in the other three countries. Okay, so I'm skipping the summary for normal times and I'm now moving to the crisis situation. So now we have again the benefit coverage in normal times which I've just presented to you and then how the coverage changes once we introduce an employment shock and an earning shock and what we see is that actually benefit coverage does not change. So this means that there are hardly any automatic stabilizers in terms of benefit coverage built into the current social protection systems in sub-Saharan African countries. If we look at the same impact but now again for consumption poverty rate, again the first three columns is what I've just showed you and then the last three columns is whether the situation changes once we introduce the shock and if you just look at the final column you see that actually there are hardly any poverty cushioning effects across all the countries. So even in countries where there are more advanced social protection systems like in Ghana or Sambia they are not able to cushion income or consumption shocks during times of crisis. This shows how mean net incomes changes across the income distribution and again we see that there are drops across the distribution and what we were interested to see here is actually the blue bar where the means test the benefits now chip in and cushion the income shock and you can see that there are hardly any effects or no effects at all. You can't see in any of the countries these bright blue bars popping up. So in conclusion we assess the effectiveness of benefit systems to respond to negative shocks in five low and lower middle income countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The benefit system in all countries is ineffective in stabilizing income and consumption during crisis. Even though benefit coverage is higher in Ghana and Sambia there is almost no cushioning effects for the poverty situation and there is almost no benefit coverage in the other three countries. The simulated shocks to earnings and employment of course lead to a reduction in net income and consumption and to an increase in poverty and the benefits are not responsive to changes in persons earnings or employment because they are universal within a certain group and they are linked to proxies of income and not income itself. So they are not designed to be automatic stabilizers across the five countries. In any case, designing strong benefit stabilizers is important to prepare for future crisis and that's one of the main takeaways of our paper. Thank you very much.


As an American and as your CNO, I am very optimistic because this is exactly the environment in which Americans thrive and we will thrive. As an American, I'm optimistic because there is something uniquely creative and innovative about us. We find a way to succeed under any circumstances and we are at our best when the chips are down and the stakes are high and they are very high indeed right now. As an American, I'm optimistic because we're part of a strong and growing network of allies, partners, and friends we will not be on our own. At home we have our brothers and sisters in arms. Our closest relative is the United States Marine Corps as you've heard. Worldwide we have allies and friends and together we share common interests in preserving the systems that have led to our common prosperity and can enable future prosperity for all. As your new CNO, I am very optimistic because there is nobody more creative, nobody more resilient, nobody who learns faster, who adapts quicker, who shows more initiative and there is no better partner and there is no more dangerous competitor than the United States Sailor. They are magnificent. Under any circumstances, in any situation, any crisis, and certainly in any fight, they will find a way to win. Dana and I feel such a privilege to be part of and to serve and lead this magnificent team, we will give everything we have our last molecule of energy. And in closing, I would ask you just one favor. As you put your head down tonight, before you go off to sleep, take a moment to say a quick prayer for our nation, our Navy, and our sailors at sea around the world and say a prayer for the greeners as they move into the next phase of their life. Thank you and God bless you.


It's my pleasure to be here today with all of you to welcome you to the Kaiser Permanente Healthcare Career Scholarships Program Award Ceremony. We are so proud to support you as you embark on this journey to college and your career and health. And this year we are awarding more than half a million dollars to 166 students. That's incredible. Only three quarters of our scholars this year are from diverse backgrounds and over two-thirds are bilingual. Our hope is that in 2016 scholarship recipients along with more than 900 Kaiser scholars who have come here before will stay connected to the Kaiser Permanente organization throughout college and beyond. If you had a chance to speak to our employees today at the career fair you heard about what a great place Kaiser Permanente is to work. We hope that one day you'll join us. A deep heartfelt congratulations. This is a significant accomplishment and I'm so honored to get to be here with you today and just share in this celebration. Now you all are going to have a tremendous opportunity to influence many people. You're going to have patients who will hopefully listen to you but you are going to be a leader with much influence in your community and I hope that you will consider using your voice and your influence not just to improve health for the sake of individuals but health for the larger region. Valcing work in a rigorous course load forces me to study on my commute and during lunch breaks at work. Challenges like these remind me to stay humble and continue to work hard. The financial support of the Kaiser Permanente scholarship has allowed me to work fewer hours and devote more time to my studies bringing me one step closer to fulfilling my career goals. I feel very privileged and touched to receive your support in my post-secondary endeavors. It is such an amazing emotion for me personally to know there are always these networks of support out there assisting students in their educational pursuits. I believe my dreams of becoming a physician will help me achieve my ultimate goal of educating, providing awareness and giving back to my community. And as we honor this latest group of Kaiser Scholars we need to remember and appreciate the powerful impact that the teachers, counselors and educators have on all these students. Mr. Magnon has been a great part of my college preparation. Thanks to his motivation and I was keeping things straightforward I am glad to say I am able to continue my education. You can have a quick conversation with Mrs. Diabobus about what you want to do with your life and you can walk out as if no one in the world can stop you. I hope to become a cardiologist one day. In pursuit of becoming a radiation therapist. I will become a registered nurse. I will become a pharmacologist. I plan to become an ultrasound technician. Wow, so many amazing smiles and great handshakes. I am so impressed by what these young people have accomplished and I know we are all optimistic about what they are going to achieve in their future here. I just want to leave you with something not to forget. That a kind glance, a warm reassuring smile and a caring touch can never be replaced and means so much to the care that we provide and the love that we give to all of our friends, family and our patients. So with that again another round of applause to all the scholarship recipients.