And to restore, they had to be at least one. So we had every, we had the information we needed for restoration. And that was, you know, that realization was incredibly comforting at the beginning of a very big project. Now, boy, the biggest issue with this project was figuring out what everything was because it's industrial goes out. And so it uses. Fasteners as a part of its decoration. So do you need this many minutes? And if you don't want that, you're only going to need maybe one fifth, one 10th, as many riddles as it is. And in fact, what's this? It's obviously cast iron. Well, they're fake, right? And then this piece up here, talking about the moment, but in other words, it was really, really interesting trying to figure out what everything was. You'd say, okay, well, we did get a list. We didn't have access to anything on the water side. We had to put scaffolding. And one of the issues that we had was that there were so many different materials. So you had, you had cast iron and steel. You had, obviously, this is sheet, no, it's sheet copper, right? It's sheet copper. And then you had the team and basically every time something fell off into the water, they gave the building another coat of paint. They didn't fix it with the phone, but it just gave it another coat of paint. Everything was painted this further screen, much of the same way. So it resembled elbow internals, which was all sheet copper. But these pieces are in fact sheet cup, standard sheet cup. This is riveted steel plate. This is sheet copper as well. These are cast iron, made to look like riveted steel plate. So we had copper riveted steel plate, cast iron, and on the inside, we actually had zinc and galvanized steel cladding on the inside of the arches where the boats pulled it, so you can galvanize steel. So I said, boy, came back to this battery on here, right? I said, you've got all these different metals sent into the salty water of New York Harbor. I said, this building is the perfect galvanic cell. I said, if you could just figure out where to put the wires, you could light half a magnet with these, and so at the jobbidder, at the jobbidder, I said, you've got these issues here, show them some slides, and I said, so I think you should change the name of the building from the Battery Maritime Building to the Maritime Battery Building, and I said, but I know, I'm really bad at positive things, but we got the job anyway, and so I got to work on the building, and the first thing that the, oh, one of the first things, we had everybody in our office except me, and one of the persons that graduated from Columbia, and I had a very detailed and oriented young woman who I said, you're going to be in charge of figuring out what everything is on this building and figure out what needs to be done. I said, but how will I tell what everything is? I said, well, we'll do that together, and I'll show you how you can find out what everything is. One of the issues was that you had, this cast iron is clearly cast iron. All right, you can even see the bowl walls, right, where it is, so that's all cast iron, that's easy to see, but on the water side, you have cast iron here, and you can see the cast iron coming apart with the clips, so you know that's cast iron, right, you know, this is of course an applied piece, this is an applied piece, but this is still cast iron. And this, it's obviously, the angle here, the rivets here, this is, I mean, 10 times as many rivets as they need, but it's obviously riveted steel, steel angle riveted steel plate. That turns out to be copper. What about this? Why? That's, those are all false rivets. These are 800 pound, six foot tall pieces of cast iron made to look like raw iron. It's just amazing, absolutely amazing.  And in this particular case, on the street side, riveted steel plate, cast iron and fake rivets, what's that extra piece? Well, it turns out that these are 1000 pound monolithic pieces of cast iron, these large ones, the large ones to support the corners, there's smaller ones back here as well, but these ones are all cast iron. This is the course that's riveted steel. So, figuring out what everything was was sometimes, did I miss one? No, I didn't miss one, but yeah, did I miss that? Did I go past that? Yes. Yes. Okay. So, these are the arches underneath that must have been a wall of the looser in the front. And this we couldn't quite figure out what it was, but it turns out that it's all riveted steel plate, it just has three different sizes of rivets. And so they actually pierced and cut. I thought that this would clearly be casting itself, but it's not. It's riveted steel plate, but very, very ornamental. And these, it's clearly cast iron, but it's cast iron with false rivet and it's made to look like riveted steel plate. And these, I thought we had these figured out. The big ones were cast iron, entirely cast iron. These are the ones that took all the weight and they took all the weight because the big ones were only set like every 30 feet. They were there for design purposes. The small ones were the ones that I actually supported. And so they were all riveted steel because they could take and they could take an oblique load, they could take a tensile load.  We said, okay, they're all riveted steel, riveted steel plates on plate. And when we got into construction, we found that that was right. Except this tiny little round piece here, which had a curvature that was too tight for them to roll, was in fact a casting that had been added to the rest of the assembly. So it didn't take any weight, but it was there for one of the purposes. Oh, okay. So, you know, nothing for the city. Everything goes very quickly. All right, we were working for the, what's worse, we were working for the DMT via the EDC, Economic Development Corporation. And so the first thing we could do the conditions survey of the street side from the left, although we got lots of permits for that at the water side. How do we get out there? Right. Well, we had a red scaffolding. It took 18 months to get permission to a red scaffolding because the building is touched on top of two subway tunnels. Though the two of the three and they are in the end tunnels are directly underneath the building. So we couldn't put weight on anything except portions of the portions of the original building. So it took 18 months to get the scaffolding over. Anyway, you'll, if you work in New York, you'll get used to this. So that young woman dear to ask me, how am I going to tell what everything is? I said, okay. Our dear, if it's steel impact rusts makes a little kind of a feel of rust, and then just disintegrates, especially on this building, which hasn't been, which hasn't been attended to. So you're going to find a lot of materialism like this that if you look at it carefully, you'll understand what it was. In other cases, you'll have pieces that are obviously so deteriorated that it can't be anything else. If it's steel, it will, it will pass us. And it's fully like this. All right. If it's cast iron won't rust much at all because cast iron has about 5% carbon in it. And those flakes of carbon in the cast iron keep it from rusting. The problem with cast iron is that it breaks.  So everything. So I said, basically, if it's back brush it and steel, if it cracks, broken, it's cast iron. All right. There's a crack there in the corner and then the other piece cracked off and and there's you see that wasn't that was one piece you can see a vertical crack there. And that corner also cracks that's cracked up. So if it's cracked or broken, it's cast iron. If it's if it's pack roasted, it's steel. Now, one of the biggest issues for this building was substance, because the structure had deteriorated so dramatically. We had areas, especially areas in front of the building where under columns, the building has subsided two inches. And so we had to find and structural linear one of the one of the basic their Bible is leave it in place and support it where it is.  Right. And so we had to find a way to with that substance to accommodate the changes in design or in linearity of the of the ornamental pieces as well. And that required not only a lot of head scratch but a lot of arguments with the contractor that was pretty amazing. So pieces like this. We're really pretty, really pretty difficult to deal with. The basis of the columns. That's what the structure looked like on the water side, especially but also in the front, there was a massive two massive beans, and they were toast. It was really pretty amazing. So the shoring had to take place for the structure repairs before anything else could happen was was pretty daunting. Okay, so our plan was, here's what we're doing. We're going to remove all the cloud. We're going to debate thermal spray and paint thermal spray is actually it's a moment spray and spray on on on various substrates and by zinc or zinc and aluminum to keep this to protect the sealage or spray. You can use it for cast iron, but you can't dip cast iron and because of work, but you can take thermal spray. So we wanted to spray or hot galvanize and paint, and then we wanted to repair that and reinstall it. Some of the pieces we wouldn't reinstall, we would have to replicate and that is these are the new rules that were on the front rail. And those rules have all broken at their bottom mounting stops because of the deterioration of the fastest. And so, because they had to have adequate lateral strength to support a railing. We, we had to replace all basically they were all broken, but we had to replace all other pieces. Like these anger medallions on the front rail were so iconic that they seem precious to us. Now, what's the basic premise of cast iron. If you have all the cast iron fabricators will give you a price for the pattern and one off, meaning the first cast that's what their basic prices. That might cost you 5000 bucks. All the other castings might cost you 375 bucks. Okay, so we had the pattern. We were missing three of these anger medallions and we're missing three. So we had to make a pattern for them anyway. And making all the others would have been cheaper than repairing it because it turns out that all of the others were broken at their mounting stops from rusting the fasteners. So I went hand in hand to the client one day and I said, sorry, I said, I don't want to replace this. I want to repair it and reinstall those are too precious. The client, I was a wonderful day. The client said, okay, yeah, I know what you're, I know why you wouldn't do that. So go ahead and repair it. So we've repaired the mounting stops on these pieces and we only replaced three, which was great. But that's something you should know about cast iron, which is once you've made the pattern. The others are 250 pages in the documents for exterior restoration. A 50 page schedule of replacement or repair or retention and refinishing for all of the pieces on each piece of steel, each piece of cast iron listed separately. Boy, that was a daunting task. And yet somehow dear to live through. Right. The cost estimate for this work, which was done in cooperation with the three major cast iron fabricators in the United States. Alan architectural metals, Robinson and I and the storeable origin castings was 9.5. We didn't do the bus system. Unfortunately, Tishman, Tishman did the class system. But when the bids came in, bids came in three times as high. In part, they said, because if they had undertaken this by themselves, they would have had to basically not take any other work at all for five or six years. They would have sunk their business long term. And so they all basically overbid it because they thought they were afraid of it. They were scared of it. And it was the largest cast iron restoration in New York City, certainly. I don't know where there was another one in New York, outside of New York, but this was a daunting. So ultimately, what we ended up doing was negotiating it together with all three firms. Major cast iron firms, historical action castings, Robinson and Alan architectural metals got individual chunks of the project and it had to be the documents had to be separated into those different chunks because we needed to do it. Now, ultimately, so what, what was the price? The price came in for the work we did with compromises came in about 14 to 15 million dollars. So it was something that was reasonably powerful to the client. That client being was removed nearly all the cast iron, not all of it. We left some in shelter areas, limit the removals of steam. I'm going to tell you what the selectively thermal spray only those areas obviously where we were taking the pieces off the cast iron we thermal spray and then the bait and reinstall. So what we catch was all of these, all of these including these groups here, these are all large castings. That's all cast iron. This is room and steel plate and these are those copper and tile frames, which were basically in good condition. So in order to save about 5 million dollars, we left all the steel, which allowed us to leave these copper frames and tiles in place. And we took these off and treated them separately but let the seal of this and then repair damaged the seal large behind here in situ. So that's saying about 5 million bucks. All of this is all of the cast iron and steel underneath the lotion that we left in place. It was blasted to remove all paint and repaint, but it was not otherwise this summer. In fact, it was in good condition. We didn't have failure these weeks. And that's saved by another fight. We didn't do any storefronts because they didn't have a, and those have obviously been done now because the audience is in the building. And because we didn't have an occupancy for it, we did do one at the end separately for ABC as a waiting room for the Coast Guard, but the others were not we're not touched. So that saves some money as well. And much too much. Or I can tell you that I'm. Unreasonable about use of original materials. I like to use the church. All right. I don't like fire class. I don't like. All right, so. The inside the archers on the inside. We're done with galvanized steel, cheap and zing sensei. But these pieces here. We're run on an obstacle piece of machinery called an English week. That allows you to do molding and curve any curvature. Replicating this, there's one in the United States replicating this came into an achievement about 4.5 million fiberglass came in 1.4 million to something like that. And I basically had to just eat it.  And that's what I did. So. You think you're going to get out of here with learning something about. Okay. The body paints the gas iron. Is going to tell you any paint. Fabric or paint manufacturers going to tell you, yeah, you need this level of surface preparation to use this paint and all the paints have different levels of surface preparation that they're suitable. If you want to this book. Is really a pretty amazing book. This is a book. The classifies rust. In 5 different levels of rust and then classifies the level of surface preparation. For each of the types of surface preparation and various of surface preparations for the different types of rust. So, this is a book. No, there's something like this. This is rust level C. And this is when you do it to an SP 7. This is what it looks like an SP 4 and SP 10 and an SP 5. So, there's a guy and we had a guy who worked 5 months during construction did nothing. We did nothing but examine the cleaning, the level of cleaning and the level of rust. They walked around with this. You see what shape is it, right? It's the perfect shape is sitting in your ear pocket.  And then he would have been out if he needed it, but he pretty much knew what was what everything was. So, SP 10 near way glass cleaning was what you have to achieve to do with zinc thermal spray. SP 6 is what you can do in situ. And yet, when I call up the, when I call up, call up the guy at Tony asked him what primer I should use. He said, what can you give me meaning what level of surface preparation do you mean? When I said an SP 6, he said, is it a real SP 6? So that's why we had a guy who did nothing to check level of preparation. So that's what an SP 6 look at all these pieces were blasted in situ. They have to be blasted in the morning and painted by the nightfall because if they sit overnight, they'll flash us. So these were so every all the work that we've done each day had to be had to be scheduled so they could blast for half of the day and then paint for half of the day and have painted a couple of coding time before nightfall. This was wet abrasive cleaning. And they have to correct. They have to collect the aggregate because it's lead contaminated, right? And they have all the effort. And so all that has to be done has to be collected. And the, and it has to have because they use wet to keep the dust down is a wet abrasive. They have to use a special chemical called hold site that keeps it from rusting immediately as they blast it. And that'll hold it for a period of time until they can paint it. And so it's less than the sand. Pardon me. It's a water and sand mixture. Water and sand mix. Yeah. And water. It's actually water and slag mix, but that's basically water and abrasive mix anything that could come off. How am I doing for time? Okay. All right. Anyway, anything that could come off. Anything that had to be done, set to an SP six and receive a particular time. Anything that could come off got blasted to an SP 10, you know, move like this, right? And then the same thermal spray. And, and, and, and then was before it was recent. Now, the other thing that you need to know about cast iron, in addition to the thing that I told you about patterns, you want all is that these pieces look interchangeable. They fall with both holes were done separately for each piece. And so you have to put every piece back with the pieces that is connected to in its original location. Every piece that came off had a little brass tag on it with a number on the number from the documents that was used and stayed with it while it was plastic, while it was thermal spray and while it was painted. And then until it was reassembled. So it's not these aren't going to change pieces. They'll they go where they were. And that's what they've done the way you have to do it. So the sink is what you use and I won't bother with sink being a note. Yeah, I will. Zing being Zing being a noting to steal the cast iron, but none of the deteriorates preferential to it. And so you can use hot to galvanizing for steel. You can dip it, but you can't do that cast iron. Like I said, it was a war. So that you have the thermal spray. I wish I could show you some thermal spray today, but you'll see it. If you'll see it perhaps next year, all those. So everything that was going to clips supports everything had to get dipped into these 800,000 vats of local zinc in Perth and New Jersey. And the house young days before pre code. This talk was supposed to be accompanied by a field trip to being as hot to go. But the administration had other ideas and unfortunately couldn't do it. But if you're around next year, take the metals course. I got my fingers crossed. I think we'll probably be able to do it next year. Anyway, it's an interesting future. And there's actually a lot to know about that galvanize. You would think the level of rust that you saw in the front of the building underneath the gutter was such you think that these pieces had to be completely replaced. But in fact, most of what you're saying is pack rust that's much more bonus than the steel underneath it. And so the, and so the, the pieces like this when they came off just assembled often. You can see that really it's only that front angle that one angle needs to be replaced. And that was typically the place. The big issue for these was not replacing those animals. It was, it was figuring out how to fasten these together so that you'd look just like the original riveted pieces. And what we did see that little ribbon on the corner there, we stick a rivet through the visible portion so that you can see the visible riveted. And then in the back, they tack well a little well in the back to hold the pieces together. So the rivet was basically not riveted the way they were riveted but just welded on the rear face where it wasn't visible. In all the clips, everything, everything that both exposed fasteners on the cast iron were stainless steel. And people say, well, quite a bit about galvanic deterioration. But in fact, you have a very small amount of stainless steel, a lot of steel and cast iron galvanic action is nil. So, but all the clips and things like this that are rust needed to be needed to be galvanized as well. So everything that was that was made there was was basically was galvanized everything we needed to attach to reattach it to steel was galvanized. Oh, disassembly. I can't tell you how many times I said to the contractor. No, it has to be disassembly because there's rust in between individual components. So everything was disassembly. Do I have to say it again? Everything was disassembly. And in fact, it's the only way to make sure that the paint doesn't fail at these. At these small areas of rusting in between pieces which are not cleaned and not, you know, not accessed unless the piece are disassembly. So that was that was one of the most expensive parts of the job. The paint systems are fairly typical for steel. We would use a zinc dust, zinc oxide partner when we could surprise some level of galvanic protection when we couldn't think thermal spray something. And then typically there's an epoxy mid coat and then a urethane top coat that's resistant to UV and that's what you'll use for steel. And we used everywhere. We use everywhere with certain modifications and certain instances, which I'll talk more about. I learned a lot about cast iron here. What I learned about cast iron was that the pieces aren't perfect. This blast blasted pieces here, you would think these pieces, these are rust paint. It's not. This is in fact air bubbles from the original castings which were end cast. If a piece is end cast so it has to be cast on all sides rather than face cast where it sits down and mold and you can vibrate it, right? If it's end cast like this bubbles get trapped and casting has bubbles in it. But these would originally have been treated with a filler, typically a lead white linseed oil filler before they painted. And that's pretty much what they do now. They don't use lead white. They use other fillers to fill the bubbles. So there's a lot of inconsistencies, a lot of little imperfections like this that you don't get freaked out. You realize they're original. That's what the building had for the past couple of years. Fasteners. We talked about the number of rivets and fasteners. I spent so much time on fasteners on this project. There's always one aspect of a project that takes 10 times as much time as you think it should. And so it was faster than this one, you know, rivet heads and other things. In this particular case, Charles Wilson must have really loved rivets. But in this particular building, he had many, too many of these rivets where he wanted them to show and they didn't need. But if he had to attach a piece and it required a rivet where he didn't want to see a rivet, he put a flat hand rivet on. I didn't even know they existed at the start of them. So I looked at it and I realized, wait a minute. He put a flat hand rivet on because he didn't want to see a rivet there where it had to be to attach it. And sure enough, that's what he did. So we had to spend a lot of time on rivets, a lot of time on fasteners. And we had to take a lot of steel. And the problem with taking off steel, taking off rivet and steel, is that if you use the quickest way to do it is you take a torch and you torch off the rivet head, right?  But it destroys the piece that you're taking off in the process.  That's the truth. All hell doll that requires lots of compressed air in massive forums. In our particular project, there was a guy named Tony who nobody got along with. And they always put him in charge of doing the removing the rivet heads. And so he worked by himself off on the water side with everybody else who's doing something else. So they didn't have to deal with it, right? And one day I took my son, my young son down to see the building and see what's going on. And it got down to the, we got to the, I walked underneath the building to the water side of the scaffolding there. I heard this ding, boom, boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. There's a rivet head, you know, I broke it down, I broke it down in the scaffolding. And so I, I told him, I'm calling up for the stock board for a second. And he said, okay, boom, boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. And so when we walked up the scaffolding, we were in the top. And Tony was in the process of cutting rivets off every five inches from a 250 long, 250 foot long angle that we had to disassemble without destroying it, you know, right? And I said, we got to the top. I said, hey, this is Tony. He's got to remove all the rivets from this angle all the way across the face of the building. And Tony looked at my son and he said, yeah, stay in school. My son still built it. Yeah, stay in school. All right, so I learned a lot about these fasteners and what do you think, just take a little guess. What one of those storage spots where we had actually turn a rivet, turn a new rivet with a thread on it. So it could be folded together, but it looked like a rivet from the face. Not quite as much as a salad sweet green, but still seven bucks, seven bucks for one of these. And we needed quite a few. So I learned a lot about fasteners on the project. How do you hold that? It's, it's true. No, that's the problem. And it's not like, if we, if we were working with anything that was low in the building, we had to use these. If you're working with anything that was up high, we use an A45, one of those torque fasteners that, that where you put it in place and you torque it from the rear face. And when it gets to a certain tightness or torque, it's shears off. You don't know what I'm talking about. Okay. I won't go back to, but there's, there was one in the, in the sockets we use those in the sockets because from, from 40 feet away, they look like rivets. And, and these were used down below when we were taking pieces and they were at eye level or up 15 feet. They had to use them. So again, these are real rivets that are then stuck through and then, and then, and then simply welded from the rear face. Everything was tagged. Everything was numbered and it drove everyone crazy, but that was the only way to get it to fit again. Try to imagine the amount of, of there was so much paper on this project. And all the clips were stainless steel were galvanized. And all the fasteners for the exterior facing stainless steel. But can you imagine just figuring out where everything went, keeping everything separate. And that's the paper. The paper, this is really, this was the most daunting thing because we had that 50, we had that 50 page schedule, but they had to, they had to translate that into work. They had to put those numbers into a, into a work schedule. And that was not easy. There was just so much paper. Now, I thought every building, every building that you work on is going to have. A surprise something just completely blindsided. This is under the loge. We thought this was all cast iron. Look at this here. These look like all cast iron. In fact, the frames are cast iron. And we figured everything here. We knew what everything was. We, in fact, had looked, one of the things we did was to look at the, was to look at the construction. To get an understanding of how things are put together, the sequencing and construction and things like that. So we went back to the historic photos to say, okay, they did this first. They did before they did this, and this is the way I went together. That's good. Yeah, now I understand. Well, let's go back to this for a second. And also every job has something you can learn about another material. You don't think about it when you've been in the project, but all of a sudden you say, hey, wait a minute, I got a boss to be involved here. And it's because of the substance of the column on the north side. It's cracked. There's about five feet of it needs to be really strong. Whoa. And I was talking about boss and I got to work with was to be on grass at that time, which was really interesting. The other thing was that I got one of the fights. I took a Columbia field trip class to go to the top of the wall. There was nothing there. And I don't have the photo. I'm sorry. It was too dark. I didn't have a flash. And I said, but I said, now I said, you're standing on top of two and a half inches of unreinforced And I took the photo but I didn't have a flash. Anyway, so I figured we knew exactly what this was and how what and how it went together. But one day I was looking at the looking at some paint on the And I said, Jesus, that was that. So I had to go and remove some paint. And it turns out that these blasters or the frames that I showed you were in fact cast iron, but they have a slot in them and they had slits or blades to not tile into the slot. And so we had to use a completely different paint removal method. We couldn't air abrasively clean this here. And that meant we had to use a different paint system for the outside of the cast iron because we couldn't last without energy, without energy to find. So there's always something on every project that's going to that's going to challenge you and surprise you. Okay, these are the guys in the Bronx, the, the, the, the pre seven for all the cast iron and steel. All right. These guys have a shop in the South Bronx and historical arts and castings and and our architectural metals would ship the stuff to them. To this year here doesn't look too impressive, does it? Well, we do good work. And they would ship this, they shipped the materials that had been partially assembled, but still small enough to put on a flat bed to the Bronx. And, and then they would pre, they would assemble it for installation. So pieces like this, let me go to the next one, would be taken and would be assembled into the installation assembly on a cradle like this so that they could then move it down to Manhattan on a Sunday, right? And then ultimately, let me go for this one, ultimately then created on a Sunday to the building and reinstalled. So I'm going to go back for a moment here. So I had to go, I was always finding myself going from the preassembly plan in the Bronx to the installation in the battery. You know where that title comes from now, right? And so I would spend a day, I would often be up in the Bronx and then go to the battery first because I would be watching, making sure they did something the way I wanted it up in the Bronx. And then watching the installation of another piece that had already been delivered down to the battery. So at some point I said, wait a minute, the Bronx is up and the battery's down. And that's why I use it as the title. Okay, so what have we talked about? Paint. Whoa, Jesus, paint. This was an incredible effort that followed from me. And so I hired an old friend of mine, Matt and Oscar, who came up and spent four days in the lift. And on the schedule, taking samples before any of the pieces were removed, right? And at one point, it was pretty amazing. And at one point I said to him, I was looking at schedule for the underside of the, the underside of the, of the arches beneath the wasabino. And I said, Matt, I said, they must have picked out some of this in a different color. And he said, well, Piper, you can do what you want. But what I put there is what it was. And he really took samples just about everything. So ultimately, we did exactly what he said. They said, when they did the Chifriani work, they changed some of the, some of the trim colors because they didn't like them. And now they got away with it, but they did. So it was pretty, pretty amazing when you consider what it looked like initially. And then, and what it looks like now, especially on the water side, it was so dramatic. One big thing that people always ask me about when they see these photos, they said, Piper, I don't understand. Why did you do everything up above first and do the basis at the end? That's because the basis had cracked because of the weight of the pieces above them and the substance and pieces above them, putting pressure on the gas iron. So we had to develop a new structural system to support everything above. And everything was down here, weight-burying on boards only, right? But so we could do that at the very end. In fact, we had so much work to be done at the top and we had a new structure to support it. But we didn't need those pieces on the bottom. So it wasn't as if we were building from the bottom up. We were building from the top down to the point where we could put the pieces on and they would be not endangered by the weight of the pieces above it. There's the structure. And that structure didn't exist. And that's the reason all that gas turned cracked at the bottom and shell into the river. And the vessel case, one of these big composencies was sold from the site. So we had to replicate it. Most of these are actually original and just cleaned. And if you go, if you take the ferry to Governor's Island, you will note that some of the tiles, one on the right-hand spandrel, are completely new. But some of the tiles in the other panels are new as well. We couldn't match them exactly. But that's all copper and glaze ceramic tile. One thing I urge you to do when you start any large cast iron project is establish a glossary up front. So we had numbers for it. But when you got the guys working in the field, they're not going to say that these pieces are E1 and 6. These two pieces, the guys in the field says, hey, by the way, we're missing three 20s on a box of a tree. And we're with those three. And then we've also got a donut. We need a donut. So anyway, so establish a glossary, informal glossary. Yes, the numbering system is important. But the glossary will come in handy with the guys when you're talking about certain things in the field. There's actually one of these pieces in the lab that somewhere that is straight and not painted. And it's a reject that we use to test the finish. Anyway, okay, the Bronx is up and the batteries down. And I spent a lot of time, you know, how long it takes to go by public transportation. They didn't have over a second. Anyway, thank you for listening.  And you can ask questions while we're eating. And certainly do that. That's what you'd rather do.  I think that's a smart decision. Wonderful. Thank you. This was really terrific. Just one quick question. How long did it take you from? Yeah, that's a good question. It took actually six years from the first contract. We had a year and a half of that was scaffolding erection on the water sign. And fabrication took a long time. So it took, it took six years. And And that was That was basically an incomplete job. Okay, we didn't do, we didn't do an interior course. We didn't do the top floor, which has become Casa Chipriani's hotel rooms. We didn't do anything in the waiting room, you know, it was basically just an exterior restoration. And that was plenty. Thank you very much. Thanks again. Let's go ahead and get some food. Are you all joining us for food? Super.


How do creatures track all kinds of environments? What innate features enable them to adjust? Today's program will introduce you to Continuous Environmental Tracking, or CET. We'll reveal a designed-based explanation of adaptation that God engineered into creatures. These abilities detect changes in myriads of external conditions and make suitable self-adjustments. Coming up on today's edition of Origins, Creation Engineering Part 1 with Dr. Randy Galloosa. Hello and welcome to Origins. I'm Ray Hypal and it's an honor to be your host today. During this program we showcase interesting guests who present evidence from science, along with other important facts validating the truth of creation and the accuracy of the Bible. Today's guest, Dr. Randy Galloosa has undergraduate degrees in engineering and theology. He has earned an M.D. and also a master of public health from Harvard University. Dr. Galloosa is a registered professional engineer. In 2008 he retired as Lieutenant Colonel from the U.S. Air Force. Now he's the president of the Institute for Creation Research in Dallas, Texas. Welcome to the program, Dr. Galloosa. Thank you so much, Ray. So we're going to be talking about creation engineering. What does that mean? Creation engineering is a way to study creatures that looks for the evidences of engineering or the principles of design that we would see in a man-made thing that was actually engineered. We see evidence of those, but when we look at creatures, we see the exact same evidences. We see the exact same engineering principles in creatures that we would find in man-made things. So what is it that's stopping scientists today from seeing that? How are they looking at creatures or not looking at creatures? Well, before Darwin, people used to look at creatures and see these features of engineering, but Darwin changed all of that. And so in many ways, creation engineering is doing biology as if Darwin had not been born. And I love that quote. That's not mine. That's actually from another guest that you've had on this program, Dr. Paul Nelson. He coined that phrase, but that's really what we're after. We're after going back to looking at creatures as if Darwin had not been born and seeing the very clear evidences for them that the Bible says are right there all along. I'm sure you're quite familiar with this verse in Romans chapter 1, verse 20, where the Bible makes it very plain that there are certain things we can see about God that are manifest plainly to everybody. As it says, for invisible things of Him from the creation of the world are clearly seen being understood by the things that are made. And I know you'll appreciate this, that that Greek word for made that's translated there in Romans 1.20 is used only one other time in the New Testament in Ephesians chapter 2, verse 10, where it says, for we are His workmanship created in Christ Jesus. So in many ways it says these things are clearly seen being understood by His workmanship. So when I look at you or you look at me and we look at creatures, we should be seeing evidences of workmanship. That's fascinating because we do that with everything else. We look at a product that's been made and we learn something about the maker. We learn something about the designer, right? Ford Cars tells us something about those engineers who are making those cars and why shouldn't it be the same when we look at creation since God Himself is the author, well then looking at what He has made should tell us something about Him. It does. And the fact that we can actually study it and understand it also tells us something because God has total freedom. He could have made creatures in a way that we just could not figure out. I mean they operated in some ways that are very different than this computer or very different than the car you're talking about. You could have said, well they were made by magic or an evolutionist could have said they evolved, which is not much different than saying magic in many ways. And I could say, well they were actually engineered and if you couldn't figure out how they operated, which one of us is right? But since we can figure out how they operate, since we can figure out how they work, that is strong evidence because as it says right on the screen, it's the engineered workmanship that we see in creatures that corresponds to the engineered workmanship that we see in man-made things. The fact that they operate by the same principles, only God-made things are much more complicated. But in terms of their basics, they operate by the exact same principles that that is the basic revelation of the incredible wisdom and genius of the Lord Jesus Christ who made them because they do operate by the same principles, it's strong evidence that they were in fact engineered and that they didn't evolve and it wasn't magic or anything else. That is a really, really powerful point. That is a great point because it shows us not only that there is a creator but that he wants us to see his handiwork in the creature. And as you said, he could have made things inscrutable so that we could look at it and there would be no way that we could even begin to take it apart mentally and get back to the cause as we always look at effects and we can determine the cause. And yet God didn't do that. God made things so that we could look and see, oh, wow, this is made up of this and this is causing this and we can go from one to the other. But in each step, we really should be thinking of the creator, the designer who made all of that possible. Exactly. And not only that, we can even copy. We can even copy a lot of his designs and use it into technology. We can't copy it to the extent that we can make one of these little babies here. I hope that when that baby came on the screen, it didn't steal your thunder because once a baby pops up, everybody fixates on that. But I wanted to just put this little picture up because all creatures do these things. These are their functions. They grow, they metabolize, they reproduce, and they adapt. In fact, those are definitions of living things. These are biological functions.  That life is a gift of God. That life is immaterial. And we're not gonna be able to explain life by engineering. We're not even gonna be able to explain life by biology. But we can explain growth by engineering. We can explain metabolism by engineering. We can explain adaptation by engineering. And those things point to the fact that they were created. So the question then comes up, particularly for a theologian or somebody else, if the workmanship seen in living creatures that corresponds to the engineered workmanship in man-made things is one of the strongest evidences that creatures were in fact engineered. And that's how people saw them before Darwin. How in the world do evolutionists who hold the natural selection, how in the world do they even explain that? You know, in theology, we speak of natural theology that the creation or nature itself shows that it has a maker, shows the handiwork of its creator. And what we're saying here is that somehow, selectionists, evolutionists have been able to look at the creature and say there is no creator. And when you begin to think of that, you think, well, how can they do that? But you're about to show us that, right? You better believe it, because it's really, really important. We have to look at the evolutionary back story behind all of this, and it begins with a realization that what Darwin was after, he was not trying to explain the diversity of life. As we've already talked about, he had to explain something far more difficult. He had to explain why creatures looked so incredibly designed without a designer. And the man you see on the screen is Francis Hiale. He was the president of the American Academy for the Advancement of Sciences. He wrote an important paper. We'll look at that at one of these other programs right here. But this is what Darwin was after, is how to devise a fundamentally anti-design way of explaining things. And he went to an approach which was called externalism, an externalistic approach where he's now looking at nature as if nature is crafting these organisms here. The man we see on the screen right here, his name is Stephen J. Gould. He's passed away now, but at one time, he was probably the world's leading evolutionary theorist. He wrote this huge tome before he passed away called The Structure of Evolutionary Theory, and it explains evolutionary theory probably better than anybody else. And he's going to explain Darwin's externalistic approach, and he gives a lot of emphasis here. He says, I proceed in this way for a principled reason and not merely as convenience. All major evolutionary theories before Darwin, that's kind of amazing, there were other theories before Darwin, were presenting a fundamentally internalist account based on intrinsic and predictable patterns set by the nature of living systems for the development of unfolding through time. In other words, if you want to know how I worked, you looked inside of me, but Darwin said we're going to look outside of the creature. It makes sense, if we want to figure out how a computer works, you look in a computer. If you want to figure out how a creature works, you look inside the creature. But Darwin went outside. Gould goes on to say, Darwin's theory in strong and revolutionary contrast presents the first externalist account of evolution. Darwin overturned all previous traditions by thus granting the external environment a causal and controlling role in the direction of evolutionary change. In other words, the environment is going to set the course. One of Gould's colleagues, Richard Lontan, who was also just passed away just last year, he said, for Darwin, now he explains it even a little better than Gould did. For Darwin, the external world, the environment acting on organisms was the cause of the form of organisms. The environment, the external world with its autonomous properties, was the subject and the organism was, again, the object acted upon. So he's seeing organisms as somewhat passive. And he says, it is from this view of environment as the cause of organism. In other words, the environment gives birth to life. The environment shapes the diversity of life. The environment is doing everything. That the entire corpus of modern biology arises. That's what we're all being taught. All of us are being taught in that way. And therefore, he accepted the view, this is from two other researchers, that the environment directly instructs organisms how to vary. And he proposed a mechanism for inheriting those changes. In other words, the organism was like modeling clay. And remolding of that clay meant each of the billions of little grains was free to move a little bit in any direction to generate new form. That's really important. He doesn't see organisms as basically acting and changing themselves. He sees the environment as the shaper. He sees the environment as the molder of all of these organisms there. You know, it's fascinating because the Bible actually speaks of God as the potter. Right. They're the clay and they're turning it around. And well, in a sense, they're not turning it around. They're just taking that same model and they're getting rid of God and they're saying the environment is the potter. Right. The world outside the creature is the potter and everything else is the clay. Exactly. It is this personification of nature that nature gives life, nature molds life, nature creates life. And that externalist of you, I don't think many people even know that they hold to it. I held to it. And I was even kind of subconscious there because I saw the environment as active. And that's how the entire corpus of biology is basically being taught in school today. All of the schools in Pittsburgh here would see it that way. However, and this is a big however, real science is not seeing it that way anymore. As you see on the screen here, research is finding that adaptability, and these are words that are right in the scientific literature. Adaptability is not being characterized as random, slow, and gradual. Those are words that are like anti-design words. When you read technical literature today, adaptability is being described with these words, regulated. In fact, it usually says highly regulated. Not slow and gradual, but generally rapid. Not random, but repeatable. And not only repeatable, the responses of organisms are so targeted to the change in the environment, so targeted as you said earlier to solving a problem that they can even be predictable. Now when you're seeing words like regulated, rapid, repeatable, sometimes even reversible, and predictable, you're seeing words that are characterizing something that has been engineered. I think immediately of a computer that the computer is going to respond the same way when you put some kind of data in, because of the programming that's inside that particular computer or that particular program, and it will be a regulated response, you'll be able to predict it, that's how we can develop programs. We make them so that they're repeatable. Exactly. So the evidence is coming in on the side of something that has really been engineered. So let's do biologies of Darwin had not been born, and let's replace it all together with an engineering-based approach of adaptation. And I've put together a model called continuous environmental tracking, which posits that organisms are tracking environmental changes just like a man-made tracking system would also have those track, would also track changes. So how does that differ from what we just talked about in terms of what Darwin was saying? Well, first of all, an engineered approach would look at the organism and not the environment. So number one, CET, or continuous environmental tracking, is an organism-focused explanation. If you want to see how these fish, these are blind cave fish, can get into a cave and go blind, you must look inside the creature, focus on the organism and not the cave. The cave is just a variable, they're either in it or they're not, but we need to focus on the organism, and this leads us to interpreting things in very different ways. First of all, if it's internalistic, we assume that all operation arises from within the creature by highly-regulated systems. And it is the organism as a whole, not just the genes. The organism as a whole, which is controlling things, that both the internal form and its adaptability are governed by the innate systems, and that adaptability appears to be the engineered control of the organism-environment relationship. In other words, it's the organism which is controlling it by its innate systems on how it is going to adapt. So we're going to look at the organism, and it's going to be internalistic. You know, because of this approach, it seems to me, we don't have to study every single one of the cave fish, you just have to study one, because you recognize, again, what's in the organism is going to be the same. Exactly. That's a great observation. Well, we're going to have to stop right here. I hope you'll stay with us. We'll be right back after these messages. We hope you're enjoying Origins TV. It all started at Cornerstone Television in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. We've been producing new episodes for over 37 years now. We praise God for the success of the program, and are excited to introduce you to Origins and to us. If you're interested in watching more episodes of Origins, you can find them on our YouTube page. Simply go to YouTube and search Cornerstone Television Network. Click the like and subscribe buttons, then you'll find the best episodes of Origins in our playlist. You can also visit our website at ctvn.org slash Origins. One more way you can stay connected with us is to subscribe to our free monthly Hope Today newsletter, which you can do from our website. And if you have any questions, call us here at Cornerstone Television at<PHONE_NUMBER>. We'd love to connect with you. Thank you for watching. In Origins, we're talking to Dr. Randy Galuza, who's been sharing about creation engineering. Randy, before the break, you said that there were two features of CET. One of them is that we look at the internal of the creature. What's the second? The second is that we treat creatures as if they really were engineered. In other words, continuous environmental tracking is an engineering-based approach to the creatures, which is very, very different than obviously Darwin's anti-design-based. So as we're looking at the picture here on the screen, we're talking about adaptation, and we see a car which has adaptable features. One of them is cruise control. And in order for that car to stay at the constant speed, it has to have a speed sensor. It has to have some internal programming that says if the speed begins to slow down, then push on the throttle, and it has to have an output response. We're going to see creatures with the exact same type of engineering, that they have sensors, that they have internal programming, and they have very, very specific, targeted output responses. And it is these type of engineering principles, as we look at creatures, which are going to guide us as we move forward. And this has some very important implications. Because we can look at creatures as if they're engineered, we can make some pretty good predictions. First of all, we can predict that a man-made thing, and a God-made thing, that are doing similar functions, that have similar functions, we can predict that they might have similar operating systems to produce those functions, and that those systems will have similar elements. So the car on the left-hand side of the screen has all kinds of sensors, and it can drive itself from Los Angeles to New York City because it can detect what's happening in the environment, and it go around those different conditions. And then you see on the right-hand side of the screen, it says that guinea pigs can beat climate change by tweaking their own DNA. Well, how in the world would they do that? If these creatures can live in hotter environments, how might they do that? Well, this was an experiment, this was a great example, where they took these guinea pigs, and they put them into a hot condition for the entire time it makes for one cycle of sperm. Then they mated these male guinea pigs with female guinea pigs, which had not been under hot conditions. And lo and behold, in one generation, the offspring were able to live in hotter conditions, and they had self-adjusted their own DNA. So there was an adaptability built into this creature that when the circumstances changed, it wouldn't have done anything if there wasn't already this ability within the creature. And I think that's the thing that really the evolutionists are overlooking, so the environment might change. But you put nothing in the creature, and it doesn't respond. How could something outside a creature make something in it? That's exactly right. It doesn't happen that way, which brings us to the next really important point. Boy, what a great setup for that. That engineered adaptability is an upfront capability. In other words, as it says there at the bottom, solutions precede the challenges. So if you and I were engineers and we're going to design a space shuttle to go into space, we would brainstorm, along with a lot of other people, all of the challenges that it's going to face as it goes through all these different environments, and we would build upfront the solutions to those challenges before we ever put a person in that space shuttle. And those astronauts want us to build the solutions before they face the challenges. You know, evolution says that the solutions are due to the challenges. So when we go with an engineer-based approach, we begin to look at creatures in entirely different ways. And we can begin to contrast what we're beginning to say and what we're beginning to talk about with what Darwin has been teaching us. You know, it's interesting, scientists don't just shoot rockets into space over and over again, expecting that the different environments to change the rocket and then studying that. I mean, there's a sense in which the science that we have that's been successful, whether it be in technology or medicine or anything else, they're already sort of assuming this, right? They're already thinking in terms of, well, we have to put it in the creature already, whether it's the spaceship or the body, you know, in terms of medicine or something like that, they're already assuming that it's what's inside the creature that counts, it's not the environment that's going to make. You're right, you know, they're assuming all of that, but they're giving the environment the credit. So in kind of as we wrap up here, we can actually contrast these two different approaches. First of all, Darwin sees organism as non-designed and he sees that they're operating under random adaptive processes because his random view and his random approach is the opposite of what an engineer would actually do. And it's externalistic. And these are actually quotes from evolutionary literature. He sees passive organisms shaped by the vicitudes of nature and that adaptation would be characterized as undirected, copious in extent, or in other words, hit and miss and trial and error. And he sees that the changes would be iterative, gradual and linear, or as Darwin said himself, numerous successive slight modifications. What we wanna do is we wanna replace that altogether, lock, stock and barrel with an approach which is designed and sees adaptation as very, very purposeful. And so it's the exact opposite of what Darwin said. It's an internalistic approach where we see active organisms shaping themselves to solve problems. We see adaptation characterized as it really is in the literature, highly regulated, with targeted solutions that are predictable if need be and that changes can be variable in extent. Whatever they need to be, if they need to be faster or slower, the organism has mechanisms which can detect those things and adjust itself. This slide is very important for everybody who's watching us. It contrasts Darwin's approach which is like the anti-designer approach with a designer approach and Lord willing at our next program, we'll talk about some more of those types of adaptations. Well, I can't wait until you're back and we can do that because just what we've talked about today, it's not only the way we function as human beings in everything we do when we see a problem we, as we've talked about, we look at what we need to do internally to make something or to put something in ourselves, medicine, food, whatever, to give us the result. And we do that. And yet what scientists are doing, what evolution scientists are doing is saying, well, you know, that shouldn't work. What we should just be doing, just throwing random stuff at ourselves or at a problem and eventually the environment will allow the right one to thrive and then it will reproduce itself which really kind of boggles the mind that anybody would hold on to that. But I think there's an underlying reason. Randy, this has been fascinating. I hope you'll be able to come back and we can pick up where we've left off. Oh, I'd love to. I look forward to it. And I hope you'll be able to join us because as we saw today ever since Darwin, biologists and other scientists studying living creatures have looked to the environment what is outside the creature in order to determine its characteristics, growth and adaptability. However, the fact of the matter is the environment has no causal, creative or selective power to know and produce anything in the creature. Only the creature's internal, intentional engineering and design can do that. And it just goes to show you once again that we know what the Bible says is true and the proof it's all around you. If you enjoy origins, we sure could use your help to keep this creation television program on the air. Your support both prayerfully and financially make a big impact. So let's work together to reveal how awesome our creator truly is and we'll see you next time. Thank you for watching this edition of Origins. For a DVD of this series, you can order online or send a $12 donation to cover shipping and handling and write to Origins program number 2206, Cornerstone Network, Wall, Pennsylvania, 15148. This presentation was made possible by the faithful prayers and financial support of you. Our Cornerstone family.


Good morning. Welcome to CMC markets on Friday the 17th of December and this quick look at a week ahead beginning the 20th of December and this last week ahead of 2021 It's certainly been another Interesting week. We haven't really seen an awful lot of direction after the gains of The last week when we saw a fairly decent rebound albeit tempered towards the back end of the week over concerns of a new travel restrictions new restrictions More broadly, but nonetheless We've managed to hang on to most of the gains that we saw from last week And obviously we're also coming off the back of some important central bank meetings this week And I think one of the key takeaways From this week's events and the central bank meetings is that there is rising concern amongst central bankers of the the effects of inflation and the durability of Inflation and I think no, you know, no, no better was that borne out By this week's decision by the Bank of England to finally pull the trigger on That naught point wife naught point one five percent rate rise that they should have done in November And finally did in December and you know, maybe that the IMF's criticism of them to get on with it Was just a shot across the bowels that the bank needed But the timing was still curious because we had in a number of policymakers earlier this month and at the end of last month talking about the fact that Now was not the time to even think about raising interest rates So and that was Catherine man who actually came out and said that in a speech at the end of November She says now's not the time to think about Raising interest rates let alone the timing of An interest rate rise and then we had Michael Saunders Earlier this month talking about the fact that he was starting to become a little bit Uncertain about the wisdom of perhaps raising rates given what's happening With the Omicron variant and yet here we are on a Friday Here I am talking to you in the aftermath of a Bank of England rate rise and Perhaps that CPI print of five point one percent was another nudge that the Bank of England needed to get on with it because ultimately you know what's the downside of Nudging rates higher it basically boosts the bank's credibility in terms of It's inflation mandate And the fact that CPI hit five point one percent now Against the banks expectation the central banks expectation that it would hit it in April next year Was maybe the smack in the chops But they needed to jolt them out of their complacency. It's certainly welcome and Certainly the you know the the sky didn't fall in when they did it in fact, you know, it was a relief that they actually finally decided to bite the bullet and You know raise interest rates and as we can see from the FTSE 100 hasn't had any significant effect the pounds Been fairly solid. I think the bigger question now in the wake of that and obviously the Fed's decision to taper his asset purchase program more aggressively from January 30 billion dollars From 15 means that the Federal Reserve Will cease its bond buying program by the end of March next year and now the big question is How many times are they going to raise interest rates and the dot plot suggests three next year three the year after however While that may be their intention if you look at UK and US Bond yields five year yield or two year yields rather Markets don't believe them. Let's look at the US two year. Okay, so we've got a very sharp rise since September From 0.2 to 0.6. Obviously the Fed funds rate is between 0.0 0.25 percent The upper bound is 0.25 percent The Bank of England's base rate is now 0.25 percent Yeah, if we look at the two year yield We're talking the markets are only pricing in another 30 or 40 30 or 40 Basis points over and above Where we are now in terms of the upper bound. So I think The market is skeptical that the Federal Reserve will be able to hike by three times next year and ultimately So am I certainly six six six great hikes in the next two years? We look at the five year that tells an even Stalker story and then if we look at the tenure is it the same this looks to me Like a potential topping pattern the US five year yields, you know, we're talking about 1.3 percent 1.2 percent That looks like a potential less shoulder. That's ahead as a potential right shoulder We've got a little bit of a neckline through here and people will say to me Why are you using technical analysis on you know bond yield charts? Well, you know bond yield chart is just representative of a price chart. It's just basically inverted Why would you not it certainly gives you an indication of market pricing when you look at a five-year yield if you look at a two-year yield on Different markets and if you look at the two-year yield on the UK again We've got lower highs and then we've got a very decent support level in and around 0.4 percent So certainly the bond markets aren't pricing an aggressive rate hiking cycle when it comes to the Bank of England and The Federal Reserve and that would probably suggest why equity markets are still fairly resilient Despite this week's hawkish turn from central banks saying that you're going to look to raise rates Three times next year is one thing being able to do it is something completely different So at the moment central banks are looking past no micron Cases are surging. Yes, it's true. But so far hospitalizations are still at a fairly low level and the only death that we've had here in the UK was from an unvaccinated That was from someone who was unvaccinated and was in their 70s. So At the moment Despite the high infection rate despite the increased restrictions which have seen obviously hospitality and leisure The leisure sector get another hit this week You know the the the omens If I can use that word Or the outlook, you know that there are there are signs of encouragement In terms of what it may look like as we head into January But of course, it's very very early days as I sit here in my home office talking to you Right now. So what are we going to be looking forward to in the week leading up to Christmas? Well, there's not an awful lot on the docket and what is there is likely to be fairly confirmatory if you like in terms of what we already know about the UK and the US economy Obviously, we've got final GDP numbers from the UK third quarter That's expected to see no change to the previous adjustment of 1.3 We may see a slight upward revision We may not Obviously, the third quarter includes July August and September and obviously in August we had the pandemic Obviously that then rolled off in September. So you might see you might see a little bit of an upward adjustment In that as the pandemic restrictions got relaxed and people were able to return to some semblance of normal on the schools went back Private consumption still expected to remain resilient on that Manufacturing particularly new car production is likely to continue to remain a drag Certainly only today European new car registrations fell to another record low We've got third quarter GDP from the US and again, this is likely to see A reiteration of what we saw a few weeks ago an upward revision to 2.1 percent This isn't expected to change in the final adjustment this week It's a significant weakening from the 6.7 percent annualized number that we saw in q2 But nonetheless, it's not really expected to sort of Shine anything new in terms of what the US economy looks like and we also have The the fed's preferred measure of core pce inflation core pce deflator and this is expected to move higher In november I'm expected to see that move up to 4.5 percent and levels last seen in 1990 and obviously this week we saw UK retail prices It's 7.1 percent and obviously that seven number Is one particular figure that's probably going to resonate in the public finances UK public finances numbers Which are due to be released on tuesday morning Despite the end of furlough in september public sector borrowing has continued to remain high It has dropped sharply from the levels that we saw at the end of the first and second quarter But in october We fell back to 18.8 billion pounds From, you know, 2.0 down 2.9 billion from the same month a year ago So that's still fairly high despite the fact that furlough To all intents and purposes had ended and I think one of the reasons this number was as high as it was In october was because of higher interest payments Due to higher rpi inflation rpi is around about 6.6 percent Then it's now 7.1 percent now Higher spending on vaccine booster doses. It's also likely to boost the The amount of money that the uk government borrowed in november. So I'm not expecting To see any significant change in that number Should expect to see number in the region of around about 20 billion pounds and to say that's that's due out on the Tuesday, but again, you know this high public sector borrowing uk us Europe Everybody's doing it. So, you know, we're not exactly an outlier in that regard So what does this mean for the markets overall in general? Well, we do appear for the moment in cable to be carving out a base In around 130 160 132 we can see that on this chart here This is the same cable chart that I've been using for the past few weeks And regular viewers of my videos will know that Um, you know, I've been talking about this 130 160 132 area For a while now We've hit the bottom of the channel. We need to break through 134. Why 134? Well, obviously we this is when the bank of england hiked rates yesterday We weren't able to get above 134. It also coincides With this this these two lows here Around about 134 10 back in september. So between 134 134 20 We really need to see A break to the upside from there And I think the only way that we're probably going to see that pan out Is if we see a significant weakening in the us dollar and certainly I think one of the key takeaways that I've Seen from some uk policymakers bank of england policymakers is whether or not we get a rate hike in february Certainly hu pill the new chief economist Does appear to be one of the more hawkish members of the mpc and he's certainly Um laid his cards out on the table earlier today with some comments which suggest That if inflation continues to go higher and the likelihood is that it will Um, the bank of england is projecting six percent by april Which is not that far away when you consider that only two or three months ago We're around about three percent and we're now at five point two. So and we're at four point two A month before that so four point two to five point one Now those are pretty exponential rises and while you can argue that um, those energy price rises Will eventually drop out The fact that the matter is we've still got potential Further upside pressure in the weeks and months ahead judging by what ppi Has been doing and ppi generally tends to be a fairly good leading indicator the cpi going forward So 134 10 20 this sort of line here Um, if we can get back above here, then we could well head back towards 136 But i'd want to see a significant weakening in the dollar and at the moment We have seen a bit of a weakening in the dollar which is encouraging despite the more hawkish tone Um, and certainly um euro dollar Um, doesn't look at the moment as if it's showing any inclination of breaking out of its recent range Again, we can look at this chart here 113 85. That's that peak there Um, it's still struggling to get back much above that and we've got 111 85 on the downside If we go all the way back here, we've also got this series of lows through here Which is around 111 60 So big big level at 111 60 111 80 Um, you know if we do break below this series of lows here We I think we'd really need to break below 111 50 to suggest um the potential for further downside If we can get back through 114 20 Then we could well head back towards this downtrend line from the peaks that we've seen back in june But as we head into year end I'll be surprised if we see much in the way of significant moves in currencies either Euro sterling We did see marginal spike lower Yesterday um coincided with those lows back in august around about 84 50 um, but as a big big top at 86 86 20 And I don't expect that to change anytime soon. I still think the likelihood is we are range trading at the moment With a slight bias to the downside given legards comments on thursday that um the ECB Won't be looking to raise rates in 2022 whereas the bank of england and the federal reserve probably will Um, probably by not as much as the market's surprising But certainly there is a higher likelihood of a rate hike from the bank of england federal reserve next year Then there is for the ECB And I think that's that's that's the way I tend to look at currencies at the moment in terms of what Those three central banks are likely to do going forward We've also got US personal spending Um, next week on the 23rd That's likely to just bear out Um, what retail sales data has been telling us has been an awful lot of brought forward spending Not only in the us, but also in the uk. We saw uk retail sales this morning coming at 1.4 percent for um, November um With all the various restrictions that we've seen kick in over the course of the past week or so December is probably likely to be disappointing in terms of high street for high street footfall In terms of online, we may see a little bit of a pickup But I can't I can't I can't imagine that Um, there'll be much in the way of a decent number for December retail sales in the us or the uk I think an awful lot of consumers brought forward their Christmas spend Into the october and november numbers and that has been borne out by both prints in Um us and uk retail sales terms of earnings. We've got nike. That's about the only item on the docket Shares have done pretty well over the course of the past two quarters Factory shutdowns in vietnam hit production earlier this year meaning that the company wasn't able to meet demand Um, how that share price low proved to be fairly short lived And we've hit record highs for the share price in november revenues in q1 came in at 12.2 billion dollars They were slightly short of expectations and sales in china has slowed as the economy there has slowed But since q1 the vietnam factories have reopened the chinese economy. It's picked up a little bit of speed And nike is also looking to get into the metaverse, which is probably one of the most hyper hyper Most hyped ideas I've ever come across but nonetheless Profits are still expected to come in at a fairly healthy 62 cents a share However, given the way this price action has been trading over the course of the past few days I would suggest the highs are in and we could well head back towards the 200 day moving average when these numbers are released on monday Okay, so um, let's have a quick look. Let's have a quick breeze through the various indices because I've left that till last Um, footsie 100 continues to look fairly resilient. We had a little bit of a spike lower Um earlier this week didn't last very long Still of the opinion that while we're above the 50 day moving average in this line here The line of least resistance is for further gains going forward um, obviously airlines And travel and leisure have taken a bit of a hit This week that's not surprising but let's say for example omicron basically behaves like a um, a high powered firework and basically blows up in the short term in terms of infections, but then fizzles out very very quickly because of the milder nature of the disease even if it is more transmissible Maybe january um, we might see We might see a bit of a pickup. I think an awful lot will depend on the politicians response To the events of the next two or three weeks For cast your mind back to january last year. It was some particularly great starts of the year for equity markets We actually fell quite sharply But if we look where we are now In terms of the market, you can see this is january We went up and then we came crashing back down to earth again But since that, you know since february We've made some fairly decent gain gains And as we can see from this line through here Um, there's a pretty decent floor on the footsie 100 around about 6800 We can draw if we can link these lows through here. Then there's probably a low A decent support around about the 50 day moving average So i'm still constructive when it comes to the footsie 100 probably less so On the s and p but having said that Despite the fact that um, we've seen an awful lot of choppiness in recent days Again, we're still above the key support levels and while this is rolling over You know, i'll be surprised to see us move much below the 200 day moving average um, we did make a slightly new intraday high on the futures In the wake of the fed decision. We've given an awful lot of that back In fact, we've given pretty much all of it back As we head into the weekend, but overall we're still pretty much well above the lows For this month What has been notable has been The volatility in the nasdaq but again We're still above the lows for this month if we take out those lows And obviously we could well drift back down Towards the 200 day moving average But again, you know the trend is still fairly positive. So nothing to get too anxious about Um, you know when when you hear an awful lot of narrative about stocks being in a bubble so on and so forth Yeah, it is a little bit concerning But you know trade what you see not what you hear and for me At the moment, we are still very much in a fairly decent range for the dax We have made obviously new highs in november But the floor is very much around the 15,000 level until such times as we take that out You really do have to remain constructive But I would imagine that we're likely to continue to trade In the various ranges that we've been in for quite some time now one notable Factor has been Gold prices which appear to have broken out to the top side But again still within the wider range that they've been in over the course Of the past few weeks and fairly decent support in and around 1760 as for Brent crude Um, that does appear to be still in its sweet spot I talked about this last week The sweet spot. I think for opec is 65 75 That's pretty much where we are And I think it's very much where we're likely to continue to be so, you know, I think in terms of Brent crude it's going to pretty bit. It's going to be pretty much More of the same So don't expect to see any significant changes there So as I say, this is probably going to probably going to be my last video for this year I might do a quick one next week. I'm also publishing a whole host of Written content which will be going out over the course Of the next few days looking back at the year And looking ahead to next year. I'll be doing a piece on uk banks be doing a piece On oil and gas and renewables. I'll be doing a piece on ipos I'll be doing a piece on the footsie Um 100 the outlook for stock markets and I'll be looking to doing doing a piece on currencies as well and the outlook for The outlook for the the outlook for the for the pound So all in all, um, if I don't get to speak to you guys before I'd like to wish you all a merry christmas Happy new year. Thank you for your company this year. It's been a pleasure and Hope to see you all in the new year. Thanks very much for Listening to my musings this year