The following is a presentation of TFNN Trade what you see With Larry Pezzavento All now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 or Internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> Now Larry Pezzavento Okay, looking good Billy Ray feeling good Lewis. Well folks, this is the six 17th of October in the year of our Lord 2022 I want to go back into history first of all I posted a chart of the E-mini S&P showing you where we were Sunday night coming in exactly at the 61% Retracement, I mean it was so it was within two points folks on a contract. It's worth a hundred and some thousand hundred fifty $30,000. So it's it was really quite accurate as you can see we went up and we made the 78% level at 37.02 We rallied a hundred and ten handles and we've been going back and forth ever since that time Let's go over history just a little bit because for me This was one of the most emotional days of the year in my whole life. It was actually the 16th Was Friday Friday the 16th of October? 1987 and I had just covered my my positions actually didn't have to cover them They just expired worthless I bought some puts on October the 2nd and I covered them on the 16th They were way out of the money when I bought them and they were way in the money when I when they expired And it was one of the largest it was the single largest percentage gain on an investment that I ever made I put 10 $10,000 into those puts on the 2nd of October of 1987 and I cashed out with about 220,000 on the 16th right on the low tick with the Dow down 106 points. I was happy as a lark I just I was able to cover all my daughter's Education back east and so that made it worthwhile and then that following that following Saturday there were all kinds of weddings that I had to attend one of them was on Sunday when Eddie Horowitz got married down in The Beverly Hills Country Club Peter Lides. He was there PQ wall there were just a whole lot of people there and Eddie toasted to all the people That didn't listen to him because the crash was going to come tomorrow on the 19th of October and by golly He sure had that right and their anniversary will be tomorrow and I always meant remember it because my gosh It was certainly an emotional day folks I don't know if a crisis going to come or not all I know is that it was set up today to do exactly that All it had to do was to gap down and when the when the British pound did not go down on bullish news Excuse me on various news boy. That was something actually opened higher. In fact when the markets opened higher I did something that I don't usually do and that is at that time I put up a beautiful Charts of the things that were happening on Sunday night showing in which markets were doing what and where the 3a twos might Be and stuff like that and the most important thing I said was you know, we didn't go down on You know bad news and that means you know be really careful here We're probably getting ready to rally and by golly. We had a little bit of a rally and the way we went To the upside and it didn't take very long to get it started And then it accelerated as we got through the middle of the night when it appeared that the folks over in the UK had was coming out with Jeremy Hunt their new Chancellor of the Exchequer and He was gonna write and he is very he's Oxford train folks he knows to put all the words in the right places so he is really a smooth dude and So we'll be able to follow him through the years if he lasts more than two weeks over there But we'll have to wait and see if that in fact occurs now Folks markets go up and down all the time So, you know, you don't have to be excited just because they do one or the other because it doesn't take long for them To move and they get overbought and oversold and as we know we live in interesting times Which is the Chinese curse and that is something that we really have to pay, you know close close attention to him Our guest today is hopefully going to be miller bill meridian if we can reach him He was supposed to be on at one o'clock, but evidently he's been delayed a little bit Hopefully we'll have him on in just a little bit and we'll be able to see what's going on with bill Now I wanted to bring another chart up here to talk to you about and that is a chart of Pepsi Someone's asked us to talk about Pepsi Cola and I'll get this up here personally. I'm not a Pepsi man I'm a Coca Cola man and let's get this up here and take a look at it here It is right here and you can see here the question that the gentleman at this a weekly chart of Pepsi And if you notice here, you have three drives to a top pattern you have drive one here Drive two here and drive three right here now if this top Would have been just a little bit lower so that it didn't get any higher than this one that would have made it a butterfly pattern That's the difference between a three drive to a top pattern and a butterfly the middle one has to be higher Number one has to be higher than number three and that's what you have to look at So that is a three drive to a top pattern and as you can see on the way up We make a beautiful ABCD finishing up in here. We've broken down and we've had a tremendous rally here these last few weeks here in Pepsi going up to a little right about the 61 percent retracement. So that's what it looks like with Pepsi So let's pay attention to these things and then we should be we should be okay, and I think we'll be alright Okay Now let's move on here and take a look at another one that we want to be watching and that is the chart that Larry Williams sent to us About oh my goodness two weeks two or three weeks ago. I posted it in here Warning us of the fact that we were looking at a market that was so oversold that it was oversold more than ever I mean going back 45 years folks going back into 1980 when the market bottomed right down here You remember who was elected in 1980 right Jimmy Carter left and Mr. Reagan came in well That's how low the market was at that time and we have taken that out That's how look at it. So we are so oversold long-term that we could get one heck of a rally in here And we're getting it right now and we could easily go up I don't think we could make new highs in here because I think you know the overall Economy looking at the technical cycles and stuff has really Changed a great deal now Let's talk about the market just a little bit in terms of what it's really all about and that's about money and Money is reflected in you know what folks the US dollar and all the currencies that are involved with the US dollar and Including the British Pound and the Euro which is 50% of the 53% of the dollar index And that's what you're looking at here. You can see we made that 78% level up here. We completed the a Bcd Absolutely, perfectly there at the 1.618 Okay, and now we've come down and we've rallied up seven days stopping at the 78% level And it's gotten hammered today because the pound took off the Euro took off everything took off even the Australian dollar Which has been really been hit really badly made a long-term bottom in the weeklies For all the Australian dollar just if well as I think I can bring that up to show the folks what it really did And that would be fun to look at because we we got a break coming up here That'll give us a chance to put the chart up and then also give us a chance to Get ready for our next segment The time of booming inflation we are purchasing powers eroded There's no better place to protect your harder and money than ain't gold Vista golds flagship asset is the Monk Todd Gold project in the northern territory of Australia This is Australia's largest unveloped gold project. 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Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free With our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com TFNN educating investors<PHONE_NUMBER> internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> Okay folks, we've got Bill Meridian of Cycles Research on the line to continue his program that we had on Friday Bill, do you want to continue please? Yeah, hi Larry. Can you hear me? How are you doing buddy? Okay, you can hear me. Okay. I presume you're coming in perfect my friend Just like we're on a spaceship or something or satellite dish. Go ahead buddy Okay, let me figure out how to share a screen again here it is right here one. So you've got my screen I think so. Yeah, I think we're all I think they think we're okay. Just let me double-check with Al and He should tell us he's nothing coming up yet But yeah, you're up and running buddy fire away. You're ready to go. Okay. Well when we left off Let's see over here with the dollar, which I think will remain strong But I always get a good feel or read from looking at the auction markets Because as I've said before in New York in the 80s, they said they used to say that Cocaine is nature's way of telling you you have too much money. Well, the auction markets are telling us that there's way too much money in the economy So excessive credit creation distorts the markets. These markets are the economy's way of telling us there's too much money around and Great excesses signal tops of bubbles. So Larry, we've been in the wrong business. So these years the pwc c 100 is Baseball cards. Oh God, yeah, and you see the s and p 500 at the bottom and you see the baseball card index at the top and blue Wow, so there's so much money available That money has spilled over out of the equity markets the bond markets the real estate Cryptocurrencies and into virtually. Yeah, if you own anything physical, it's probably up in value So here's the Actually, it was it was supposed to be oops New computer Michael Jordan Jersey from the 1995. Yeah, I know went for four million dollars for a jersey And I think I'm a Mickey Mantle baseball card. I think would for seven if I remember correctly But anyway, one of the reasons I'm I'll talk about the market in a minute But bearish on the economy is because The real estate cycle which is I presented this before and it's 18 years long and the last time in 2006 I think I advised Everyone if you've got any real estate because it is a liquid it takes time to sell Make sure you've completed your transactions by June 30th That was 2006 and of course, you know what followed that So it's 18 years in length. It breaks down into four seven and seven year segments There's a four-year crisis or bottoming phase, which I think is about to begin There's a seven-year recovery phase with moderate price rises There was a seven-year accelerating phase that leads to a top And if you read the book by my friend Phil Anderson the secret life of banking in real estate Phil credits Fred Harrison and his book boom bust for tracing history to find this cycle Let's look at it Here it is straight from Harrison And back when I first learned about this we were back Here and back here where I have my pointer is Where I bought the place I'm in now, which is multiplied in value by four times And I said to Phil if you add seven years is the next top then in 2016 because that's the year of the presidential election I think a pro business candidate will get elected. So this makes sense. One confirms the other So what happens is after seven years of recovering from the shock of the down period people Moderately by real estate and after seven years they figure it's okay to jump in So then the seven-year accelerating phase starts of which the last two years he calls the winner's curse the last two years And uh, that would be this year and last year 21 and 22 And so I then said to Phil then the top should be 2023 Which is next year, but you you look at the news larry and you talk to people about real estate or You know, you see what is going on the average house was on the on the market for only 18 days And people were buying houses site unseen houses where the ground haven't hadn't even broken yet That's now starting to crumble and prices are starting to decline so 2023 24 25 and 26 should be somewhat difficult for real estate and that prices will fall So that's the four-year period, which means we don't start. We're not back here yet until 2027 and my my point in this other than It being a cyclical curio that tends to work Is that a lot of people base their consumer spending on the inflated value of their real estate of their homes They take out second mortgages. It gives them great confidence If you bought a place for a million bucks, and it's now worth two You feel you can afford that additional car or to redo the kitchen or whatever So look at the condition right now with the higher Prices in inflation and then try to imagine that evaporating So I don't think this of course will hit disposable income and as my friend in Europe Felix Zuloff who was the most successful fund manager in europe in the 90s Said that analysts have not really started to cut their estimates yet They cut their price targets on stocks when they started to come down So I think you're going to see a rough earning season coming up I'll mention a couple names in a minute, but the that is the real estate cycle Here's a sign of a top that's mortgage payment as percentage of income is now higher than 0708 So here you see 0708 and here you see Where we are right now that's mortgage payment As a percentage of income So you could say mortgage payments are up Or income is down or some combination of both So this is uh Not a sign of people being able to afford real estate So another sign of a real estate type top home purchases are getting canceled at the highest rate since 2020 This comes from my friends at redfin in london That's now almost as high as it was back in 2020 So cancellation of home purchases from a low down here of about 10 were up to 16.1 and that was in july of this year Here's another sign record share of home buyers make offers site unseen Well, look at this 2015 2017 so december 2020 now this data is About a year and a half old So that i'm convinced is coming down right now. I don't have the latest numbers in front of me So This i just wrote up and put in forbes this morning going back These are miscellaneous developments Of which cryptocurrencies are one I met with matthew melan Who is the backer of bit coin who i think multiplied his own wealth about seven or eight times So by his involvement in bitcoin and when i met him he said he's getting a bit frustrated with the guys He's working with working with software engineers and i said i know what you mean But he said the government has contacted me about creating a government coin and i was waiting for this Governments will not pass up this opportunity To have their own coins so they can trace all transactions So they said to him they started negotiating with him about uh him We got to pay a few bills stay with us with that thought with mr. Melan We'll be right back with bill meridian of cycles research folks Give us a few minutes four minutes and we'll be right back If you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report The gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold Which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee So you have nothing to lose every monday morning I publish the gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the xa u h ui gdx as well as more than 30 different mining equities To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report Sign up now by visiting tfnn.com. 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You were born to be tfnn educating investors This segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com Okay for back folks speaking with bill meridian cycles research about bitcoin and bill melan You want to continue bill? Yeah, well Matthew melan backed Matthew. Sorry. He told me that they are the government That contacted him about creating a government cryptocurrency, which is something I had expected so I said to him when I thought about it I said, you know right now it's the wild west It's like those periods in the united states when banks could issue their own currencies And some backs were well run and the currencies were sound and others were not and My guess is that when the government comes in with rules and regulations That's going to sink a lot of the smaller cryptos But you have to remember they're the government They can offer incentives that private industry cannot like if you pay your taxes With the government new government currency. You can deduct one percent from your payment Uh, I had dinner with a client Who just flew up from the Bahamas? One week ago friday night in new york And he said bill do you remember that you said what I just said I said, yes He said in the Bahamas you can pay in us dollars Bahamian dollars or a local new government cryptocurrency if you use that you get a discount So it's already started So I think that the root my boss once taught me he said Shorter term the market movements are supply and demand imbalances, which you can measure with technical analysis, but longer term It's more fundamental. So tell me what's going to happen in two three four years And I'll give you the ideal investment strategy so I I think the big fundamental that is depressing cryptos right now and causing it to go sideways in a range is the waiting for this This to to occur and when it does occur I think ethereum and bitcoin will still be there, but a lot of the smaller crypto currencies will not be able to compete They'll just be submerged. They'll be it's they'll go the way of the packet in the duzenberg and the studibaker To borrow an analogy from the automobile industry So that's what I think is happening there and you know, I I have two friends there. They're setting up a 24 hour We never close seven day a week crypto currency channel that's going to be online and They they tell me there was there was a 24 hour crypto currency event live band fresh food music for 24 hours and he met Met a 30 year old guy who's got 10 million dollars And he met a 22 year old who's got 8 million dollars And I said did you meet any eight year olds who have 22 million dollars because that's what I expected to hear next I said, you know This that is assigned as an old saying you know, it's a top when too many stupid people are making too much stupid money And I think that was the case Wow, that is that is the case and there are guys who came on the internet Who are preaching and bragging about all the money they made they seem to think that happens every day that it's natural and the same guys are now which like Uh, you know, I made a million bucks at the stock market and how I lost a million bucks in the stock market so that's My fundamental take on cryptocurrencies and I'm telling you I've gone buggy with my own cycles program if you Extract or compute all of the daily weekly and monthly cycles in cryptocurrencies and you print it out You wait a month or wait a week and run it again The links to the cycles are all different which tells you that the market is too unsettled. It's too new There's not enough price data To really make any accurate predictions. That makes good sense. Yeah Wow, and the other the other fundamental that As developed, uh, I I spent my first What let me think Was it five? I how I have three to five years out of school doing fundamental research for the life insurance industry And so it's an industry. I know pretty well And by statute they have to keep I think it's 70 I think it's 70 percent. Maybe it's 80 of their Liquid funds in bonds and during the 70s when rates went up to 15 percent Do you know what would have happened if they marked those to market the insurance companies would have disappeared Now they buy they buy the highest quality bonds And they hold them to maturity and also they may very well have hedging programs that larry I think you can agree. I'm trying to think of one successful hedging program that's been run by a very big company I I can't think of any Uh, they could buy they could buy the etf tbt because that trades three million shares a day and that increases two to one As bonds decrease So number one, you know, I remember the 70s And this was the case interest rates went to 15% and remember, yeah on on if you mark to market All the major insurance companies were insolvent Now what's happening is as you may have read death rates have jumped dramatically. They're up 40 40 percent and actuaries have a very Good track record it. They they they can anticipate death claims Well now they're getting bombed with death claims and the bond market is down So I think the next financial crisis on a fundamental basis maybe within the insurance industry where the government has to step in and You know a couple things that are certain the sun comes up in the morning and people always pay their insurance premiums That's one thing I learned in the insurance industry and As one executive said to me to mess up an insurance company You don't only have to be stupid. You must have malice and he said the great cash machines because people always Always always pay their insurance premiums and it's like when the cell phone boom started in the 90s and I was in Abu Dhabi And uh, you know, well bill explain to us the fundamentals you borrow I see the fundamentals of people like to walk around talking on a cell phone. I said, that's the fundamental And so What do you want me to tell you, you know Yeah, in china, everybody gets a cell phone from the government. There's no cash anymore. Everything's done through that telephone I didn't know that. Wow. Oh, yeah, there's not even there's no there's no coins or paper money at all It's all done on the telephones even the beggars get their telephones Okay. Yeah, so that's another, you know A way of looking at it too because it's coming in other countries. It's going to come here too I'm sure Now the effect of the russian war because I live in vienna half the time people. I don't have any special insight into it but when We bought property in vienna 19 or 20 years ago. We had an apartment. We bought a house And people asked me why well my wife's family was not in good health. So that's why she's an only child That was one reason but the other reason I knew from that 18 year real estate cycle There was going to be a crash in real estate and I didn't want to be buying into a market and watch the market value sink below cost the Vienna market the austrian market had no place to drop to because it had never run up People and they have a peculiar real estate habit. They will hold on to a property And they'll pass it from generation to generation And there's the black woods is a very nice area And somebody mentioned to me that nobody ever sells real estate in that area. They just buy it and they hold it They never sell it and the houses are built to last forever switzerland too so It's not a very liquid market. So the russians came in and they did me the great favor of boosting all our austrian properties And I had an american friend an american mathematician who Has a girlfriend had a girlfriend who's a russian lawyer and the only thing she did Was make arrangements for russians to come into austria getting them visas opening up bank accounts So that has now started again And real estate prices are now up year-over-year in dubai 89 percent prices have almost doubled and That is I mean the minute I heard this this has bailed a lot of my friends out of their dubai property Because they were supposed to be a world expo or something like one of the Okay, I'm gonna have to stay with us another who've got some questions But let's trace the story about dubai. I'm certainly interested in that. We'll be right back folks bill meridian cycles research You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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Do you want to continue? Please and I have a few questions at the end of the show So please go ahead. Yeah. Well the russians their favorite place in dubai In d.o.a. Is dubai not abudabi. This is the commercial hub and i'm telling when I lived there I think there was not one month a week that went by when some russian was found floating face down in a canal or in the water offshore and so The other thing the russian war has done. There's now a program of shortage Because most of the coders a lot of guys used like i'm in the board of the foundation for the study of cycles A lot of those guys now don't have guys to do their coding because they were in ukraine or in russia And I was negotiating with a serbian company and they said bill it's unbelievable the salaries have just jumped enormously You know, you've not only got the internet of things you not only only have the metaverse And all the software that's in existence needs maintenance needs changing and upgrading but now you've got this War which has taken a lot of these people out of the market And I also wanted to say that a russian friend of mine translated putin speech to me when I was in vienna And well actually it was after I left vienna. It was by phone And she told me that what he said was we are you know, believe in the family unit here We believe in safe borders. We believe in safety in the streets and we believe in the integrity of the family We're not going to go for any Uh, woke philosophies or Gender transitioned or anything like that another she sounded like I guess like ronald reagan would have sounded, you know many years ago so I thought that was quite interesting to hear that from her so Anyway, just to I'm just finishing up What was uh last friday's presentation, but right now we are an option expiration week in october Just to shift over to the markets and you will notice that monday over the last 40 years In option expiration week in this month has been the strongest day in overall You see you look at the graph at the the line at the bottom. It has been an up week strong on monday sort of flat on tuesday week on wednesday, but strong on thursday and a little off on friday That's this week Now next week, of course is post opex week and we get the reverse Now the the red bar by the way is the odds that the Market will be up on that day, which you read over here. So that's about 60 percent On monday, and that's about 50 percent on tuesday and so forth The blue bar is the percentage gain So here you see the the the number had actually been negative on monday And the green bar, which is what i prefer to look at is the expected return in other words It is the odds that the market will go up multiplied by the Percentage change gives you the expected return and you'll notice it's negative negative negative positive and negative so That will take us into Let me see the 24th will be this day right here The 27th of october is the average low in any year in the dow jones industrial average since about 1915 It is also the beginning of the buy in october sell in may period Now whatever I speak about october It is the single most volatile month. It has brought the biggest number of one day declines And it usually closes on the upside And Let me see I think sentiment trader has done some work and I know laurice has done work on these up and down days you can measure them in volume in breadth or in price I prefer price because volume has become very distorted as we've moved toward decimalization and so Bottoms are made of numbers of down thrusts and up thrusts and that's what we're saying So this is a bottoming process So i'm pretty certain that the market is going to be higher one month from now And according to my one four ten year cycle, which I think I showed you last time, but I can If I could find it again because now i'm I'm in a document that's not part of the presentation, but let me try and find it The one four ten year cycle has bottomed and here is the summation of those three cycles And right now we are about we're about here so The market uh did not bottom in early october it's two weeks later, but it all is not lost and If you're looking at any uh one stock to buy the strongest stock in the month of october is usually apple It is extremely weak in september down about 65 percent of the time but up 70 percent of the time in october So if you look at the relative strength with the market being down Do you know at larry apple's relative strength has been up all during the spare market In other words, it's outperform the average stock in other words It's down less than most stocks and those are the stocks you want to own with the market bottoms And we are in earnings Week and uh, let's see with the 17th now the 18th Before the open which means you can only act on it tonight Uh, I think johnson and johnson j and j is going to sell off in their earnings announcement now This I call the earning surprise method. Uh, if you get a concentration of cycles On the day that the company reports earnings the effect is magnified that's just A statement of fact if you read the financial analyst journal It'll tell you that volatility is greatest when companies report earnings because obviously not all earnings estimates are going to be right on the nose So it will be low so it will be high and people the price adjusts accordingly So a cycle which may only move a stock by half a percent during normal times may move at three percent On earnings day, because all attention is focused on that stock. That's the method So j and j i'm bearish on that they report before the opening tomorrow and um, uh goldman sacks gs the same thing Both look bearish and those are the only two I have because I haven't had enough time to go through the rest of them Uh tesla, which i'm extremely interested in has got both positive and negative cycles at the same time So we may to get what's called an outside day You may get that stock all over the place on the 19th When they report or they report after the close so that would be the 20th Uh bill do you have any memories of uh 1987 you'd like to share with us? Yeah, um I do because I was at painweber And uh people always ask me What did what did you like the best I said being at painweber and I said you gotta be kidding You were managing a big portfolio and in Abu Dhabi, I said well, you know, I had a very good boss jim mccarthy's a very good guy and we work well together and um The market was uh rallying and he and I Well, he and I uh kirsten predilla the two strategists They went bearish in january Nine ten months too early and as a result all the calls were flooding through to us because they these guys kept talking the market down The market went from 1900 to 2700. We were still Bullish and they were bearish So this set up a lot of resentment probably had something to do with me getting laid off. But anyway A lot of people were laid off that the day after that that's for sure Well, it took them a year to figure out what was going on. But anyway The uh the market went up into august 25th and archcroft correctly said that that was going to be the high day I remember very distinctly bob prector and I disagreed with him in a phone call And then when the market came down I said gee, I think you were right and it bottomed on september 20th 21st And that rallied up now the point at which you know, he and I were both in new york I said I agree it was october 5th to 6th. I think was the high I said that day is a turning point. You've had a big move down. That's a you had a big wave up That's b This is going to be a c wave now if the a wave was as long as it was the b wave the c wave is going to be terrible It was far worse than any of us thought And it was Hey bell, thanks for joining us, buddy. We'll have you on again in a few weeks if you I really appreciate it Thanks for coming on here to bring you bet, buddy. Thanks a lot. Thank you. Bye bye. Psycho's research We'll be right back folks 8 7 7 9 2 7 6 6 4 8 Vista gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in australia the mount todd gold project Vista gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve Vista gold has all major permits approved and has retained c i b c capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing An accreted transaction. Vista gold trades on the nyse american and tsx under the ticker symbol v gc Vista gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices Selective stocks and commodities Subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com The opening call newsletter is written by basal chapman Creator of the trading methodology known as the chapman wave The chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices Get the opening call newsletter by basal chapman in your inbox every day First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied Let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors Everything in the universe is governed by the fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market To stay on top of stock patterns You can take advantage of sign up for the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter at tfnn.com When you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader larry pesavento On stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust larry's analysis after all He's got 45 years experience as a day trader larry will also provide daily charts videos And data on the key markets that he's tracking expect notifications from larry on market movement You need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors tfnn has launched the tigers den hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years With live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours the tigers den available to all tigers and Tigris's for just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders Just visit the front page of tfnn.com Don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day Go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv That's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv Okay, folks. I post as one of our little dear friends here On the chart here today. This is the chart of the dow e-mini. You can see sunday night We made a low at the exact 61 percent retracement and guess what happened right after that folks We had a little party and it was not a tea party It was a 3a 2 party as you can see the first 3a 2 retracement came in here The second one came in here and the third one came in there 3 in a row bada bing bada boom virtually trading with the trend very little risk involved, but It's really an incredible sequence of events when you watch these 3a 2 patterns Now tomorrow our guest is going to be none other than Jeff huge of alpha insights on the 18th of october boy what a day that was Anyway, let's say keep in mind folks. It's not about how much money you make It's about how much money you don't lose so always use your stops Keep your head about you and don't get involved with the stuff that's going on in them, you know In the market that you hear about that may or may not be true. Follow the charts They'll lead you to the promised land and that's really what you want to be looking for So tomorrow it's jeff huge on wednesday. We have um Adrienne toga ray and on thursday, I think we have tim bossed and on friday We have paula web douglas will be our guest. So live every day in an attitude of gratitude And may god bless and we'll see you on the flip side tomorrow, so thank you for joining us and uh, we're going to see you then. Bye. Bye


Hi, I'm Colin Watson, this is a recruitment drive so I'm glad to see quite so many people here, that's very useful. Some high over the years I've found myself as the, oh it's a little bit of feedback. Okay, is that any better? Oh nice. Some high over the years I've found myself as the de facto grub maintainer in Debian and I'm also a grub developer and I've come out over the years. And I'm here to persuade you all that this fun thing to do and that you can help because I need more people. So, yay. Grub has, it's moved on a long way from its beginnings. It's called the grand unified bootloader which is a bit of an aspirational name and certainly was an aspirational name back in, back in 1995. And back then most of us just used it over Lilo which is the really traditional x86 loader because you didn't have to remember to reinstall your bootloader when you installed a new kernel which is really annoying. But even so, quite a few Debian developers have hacked on Grub over the years and nowadays it's a very powerful bootloader. It's been ported to many architectures, it's actually quite rewarding to hack on. So I'll be giving you a tour of its history and of its designs suggesting some particular areas where we could really do with help. Now the Grub project which, this is Grub 1, it was originally just called Grub and we now call it Grub Legacy. But it was started in 1995 by Eric Boleyn. He was initially trying to build something to boot the GNU Hurt. And among the loaders of the day, it was quite unusual that you could edit its menus and fly and that sort of thing, it had an Emacs or Bash style interface to that.  Grub even then had a reasonably capable file system interface as well. So it was bad, it was by and large good enough. So many people adopted it as it was. And of course it was originally designed for the Hurt to start with. So it started out with a focus on the new boot method they designed which is called multi-boot. And the history file tells us that they were determined not to add to the large number of mutually incompatible PC boot methods. Grub did soon become a little bit more generic and supported the methods for booting Linux and such like. And now I'm being a bit unfair, multi-boot has been genuinely useful to people doing academic experiments with kernels different from scratch or other custom payloads because they don't have to do all of that work from scratch. Anyway, I wouldn't cover multi-boot further. This is a rough layout of Grub legacy back in the day. You had stage one. This was a tiny thing that fitted in the 512 bytes master boot record. It just knew how to read the first sector of the next stage along, stage 1.5, from a fixed location and jumped it.  There was a separate stage 1.5 for each separate file system type that Grub understood. And that had enough fuzz from code to read stage 2 from an ordinary file system. So it's a usual bootstrap your way, gradually up the stack thing you have to do. The rest of the real meat of the loader lived in stage 2 and that included all the command line commands, configuration, file parsing and the code to actually boot a payload like a Linux kernel image, which is probably what we wanted to do with it in the first place. So far so good but there were quite a few problems with the design as it was initially put together. The fuzz from abstraction was pretty ad hoc. It was achieved by building a separate stage 1.5 blob for each file system that Grub knew about and shipping it in the package. The terminal abstraction was sort of reasonable as well but other than that there wasn't much in the way of internal expressive power going on. So it was very difficult to extend it safely. It's hard to work out how Grub legacy could ever have been taught to handle LVM for instance because you would then have to have a stage 1.5 that knew about each of the fuzz systems on LVM and so on and you end up in a complementary explosion. So it wasn't very elegant from that point of view. There were lots of PC BIOS assumptions as well. It may have been ground and unified but it wasn't really particularly portable at that point. Federer did manage to get it to work with UEFI, actually probably Red Hat then managed to get it to work with UEFI but it wasn't a total straight forward exercise and it was very hacky. So as time went on upstream maintenance kind of fell by the wayside. It was such a pain to work on and even though there wasn't really anything newer that was usable, nobody was really interested in it upstream so the distributions did what they had to do and this meant that we have ended up with Grub legacy packages in Debian and Ubuntu and Federer and SUSE and all the rest that are actually completely different products really. And I don't just mean have a different patch set in the usual way that you get, they have completely different installation and configuration tools that don't exist in the multiple branches. So today it's basically impossible if somebody comes to us upstream to support Grub 0.97 because it just isn't enough of a thing by itself. You have to figure out what distribution people are using and tell them what to do for that. So we end up punting a lot of that to the distributions to support. So there was a Grub 2 rewrite started in about 2002. It's a very rough timeline of it. As you can see it was a pretty long project, pretty slow project. I hope I pronounced his name correctly. He was the lead Grub maintainer at the time and he started work on what he called the preliminary universal programming architecture for GNU Grub or Pupa. So it's GNU, there's a bad pun in the acronym. A Pupa is the next stage along from a larva or Grub in an insect life cycle. So yeah, I'd say it was probably roughly usable by about 2007. So there was a long period when it was very experimental. And my pretty biased viewpoint is that distributions started adopting it properly and starting to present it to users probably in about 2009. A snowball effect kind of kicked in from there and it became much better quite quickly until we finally got 2.0 out in 2012. So I also noted in here the point where the first non-X86 architecture port showed up. That was the PRPC port for New World Max in 2004. Because that's a very unusual milestone in something as architecture specific as bootloaders have historically tended to be. By now if you look at some core bits of Grub 2.0 you can kind of see the echoes of bits of Grub legacy in there. There are a few common lines of code but it was a pretty sweeping rewrite and there isn't really much left. And this is a very large project by most standards. The leadman tenorship has changed hands three or four times along the way. It took a lot of forward thinking for people to get involved early on. So the design that we have now is around a small kernel that offers core features like initialization, virtual file system layer, module loader, almost everything's in modules. Sound familiar? There's an insmode command to loader module. It's considerable inspiration taken from full fledged operating systems here. You mostly don't have to worry about much of this by hand. Grub install, which is the main installation tool, works out the bare minimum set of modules you need to read everything else from boot Grub and builds those into what we call a core image. That's the rough equivalent of what stage 1.5 was in Grub legacy but this time it's built dynamically rather than all being shipped statically in the package. And also at run time the loader will load some modules into itself automatically. So for example if you request a command name that isn't currently loaded then it will go off and load it for you automatically. But this architecture makes it a lot easier to construct images that fit into a constrained space in a much more flexible way. We make very heavy use of abstraction layers. It's rather like the way, not quite identical, but rather like the way that a Unix-like system presents block devices and file systems. And those are generally composable. You can quite easily boot from XFS on LVM on RAID, whatever. There's even a loopback module so you can treat a file as if it were a disk, much like we have in Linux. So this makes it quite easy to do strange things like you can embed an entire Debian system in a file on a Windows system, which we actually did with Ubuntu for a while. And it's quite scary, but it largely works. This design also lets us easily build user-spec tools from very near to the same code, which is very important and I'll come on to that later. And as you can see from the random stats at the bottom, there's very little assembly in this. It's almost all portable C. Even some of the, almost all of the C is obviously common. The assembly is, of course, more architecture specific, but for PC BIOS, we're only talking about four and a half thousand lines, which is considerable, but not too much of a mint in this burden. So here's a brief summary of what architectures we have now. We have a number of X86 platforms. The newest of those is that you can now use Grubb under Zen power virtualization with a bit of effort. The newest architectures are ARM and ARM64, which we added last year. In practice, only some ARM32 devices actually work with this, because they require the platform's U-boot to be built with the U-boot API so that it can act as enough of a firmware for Grubb, and a lot of them don't actually have that turned on. But it's at least a start. I believe that in theory, all of Jesse's release architectures other than S390X have at least some level of Grubb support, which is pretty awesome. Now, in Grubb Legacy, the hardest and also the most common problems we had to debug were problems with reading files from disk in one way or another. So people had problems loading the kernel and init.rd, because their file system was in some strange shape. And if you wanted to debug this, you were usually stuck with trying to set up something that roughly matched in an emulator, and either using just crude printf debugging, or in extreme cases, trying to attach GDB to the emulated machine over QMU. Some people in the audience may be familiar with this routine.  So in Grubb 2, as I said earlier, we have much of the same code built into utilities called Grubb Probe and Grubb FS Test, and these use the operating system's block device as a back end. So you can ask Grubb to use its own partition table and file system tools or parsing code from right there in user space. This makes it very much easier to attack lots of common problems. You can use GDB, you can use Valgrind, you can use the debugging tools of your choice. Tom Marble was asking me earlier about F2FS, and putting that together in Grubb 2 can be done almost entirely in user space. So you can put together a new module, build a version of Grubb Probe that's linked against it, and iterate until you get something that works, rather than having to constantly reboot, even having to reboot an emulated machine is a lot of work. So a similar trick also gave us this spin-off benefit of Grubb-Mont, that's a Fuse file system implementation that uses Grubb's file system code. So that gives you a guaranteed true read-only-mont using the exact same view that the bootloader will have when it tries to look at your system. This lets you avoid the caveats that apply to things like journaling file systems in Linux, which it turns out you sometimes can't safely read-only-mont, or sometimes the kernel will simply refuse, and it's also useful for things like OS Prober. If somebody felt the urge to make that work as a hard translator, that would probably be a pretty good fit too. Now you can't do everything in user space, at boot time, Grubb gives you a pretty nice bash-style interactive shell with runtime controllable debugging levels, so you can set the debug variable to various things, and that will give you different amounts of spew on your console. So you can often try things out and fly and figure out what's going on. You can do quick miniature image builds using the GrubbMakeRescue command that gives you an ISO image containing the version of Grubb that you're using that you can then boot in an emulator and try out. And a useful trick is to boot your real-life system with such an image using QMU-snapshot so that it won't write anything back, and then you can see how the loader that you're working with would boot your laptop without actually risking the possibility of breaking anything. It's easy to pull out bits of configuration files, run them, write new commands, there's a hello world command which is about 30 lines, so it's quite easy to put new things together. Now getting onto things that are a little bit more involved and are broken, one of the things that was part of Debian's GrubbLegacy changes was the Debian specific update Grubb script. And this worked by trying to guess which parts of bootgrubmenu.list were user-modified by a way of magic comments and updating everything else to match the current state of the system. This was, it was sort of okay, but it caused a lot of complaints. Sometimes it was just because people didn't read the comment text that said which parts of the file were safe to edit, but just generally mixing user-editable and automatically updated content in the same file usually turns out to be a bad idea, and we've seen that in various other places in Debian as well. So for Grubb2 we brought this, well my predecessors brought this system upstream as Grubb make config and made it generate the whole configuration file from a small amount of user-edited configuration in Etc default Grubb and a bunch of scripts in Etc Grubb.d. And you can still of course write your own Grubb.config directly if you like, it's about the same length as it would be in Grubb1, but for a general purpose system we normally prefer the auto-generated approach. So far so good, just about everything's customizable if you try hard enough. The problem is you have to try quite hard in several cases. They all require, anything involved requires editing quite complex shell scripts. If you have to, if those are changed then in the package letter you're going to have quite a difficult merge resolution to do, and some changes require things like moving conf files around to different positions in the order which isn't going to be handled well by Debian config, sorry, conf file resolution in future. So all of this probably needs somebody sadly to sit down and design a third iteration of the system that uses perhaps a templating language or something, but that really hasn't been at all started yet. Okay, so now onto some things that are still genuinely quite hard. The PC BIOS architecture has well secreted over 30 or 40 years of gradual development and it's basically pretty awful for modern purposes. The usual partition table format is called MBR for master boot record, or sometimes the MS-DOS partition table. It doesn't offer any formal space for keeping the boot loader, or for keeping boot code in. You can cram a trivia loader into 446 bytes. That basically gives you the Debian MBR package, which jumps to a loader somewhere else. And there are a few approaches for where you can keep the rest of the real meat of the loader. You can embed it in a file system somewhere at an offset that you know won't change. For instance, you put it in a file and trust the file system is not going to move that around. The file systems sometimes do move things around. You might run FSCK, or there are some file systems that will do their own tail packing in RyzerFS as one of these that will sometimes move blocks around for you on the fly. That doesn't play very well with a boot loader that has hard coded addresses in the MBR. You can, a few file systems support an embedding area at the start, I think, ButterFS does and one or two others. This is good, but it's not really widespread enough that we can build the whole installation strategy around it. Or you can do what Grubb generally does now on MBR. You can sketch the edge of the specification that sort of doesn't really exist anywhere coherent and you can use the boot, what's sometimes called the boot track or other names. That's the unallocated space between the MBR and the first partition. This makes some people itchy, it's a bit nasty. It means we have to do some alarming things to avoid conflicts with other software that put things in the boot track. Fortunately, almost all of that software is evil. There are a few bits of Windows software, well, some of them are backup utilities, which I'm not quite sure why they put things there, but they probably have a reason. There are a few things on Windows that like to put a note in a sector in the boot track to say that they have been installed so that you cannot simply uninstall them to work around their 30 day license trial terms. We need to know to wipe that bit of the boot track as well and that's all terribly nasty. Grubb actually now has error correction on some of its own code in the core image so that it can, Grubb can literally cope with a couple of sectors of the core image being overwritten with completely random data. It's horrifying that we need this, but yes, that surprisingly works. Fortunately, this is becoming less of a problem. The alignment requirements on modern disks mean that for decent performance you want to have your first partition start at one megabyte or sometimes even more rather than the traditional 63 sectors. We now usually have plenty of space on NBR, but not quite always. Things are also unpredictable when you have multiple disks. You can't tell from Linux which disk the system was actually booted from. You can, there are some things on some BIOS versions that let you make better guesses, but it's not, unfortunately not universal. You also can't tell what disk is going to be booted from next time. It's not necessarily the same. Sometimes it depends on which order the devices are enumerated by on the PCI bus, even from the BIOS level. The least bad answer is usually to install to all of the fixed disks on your system, but then you annoy some people who have complicated multi-boot setups, so you can't really win. The good partition table format or GPT is much better. It's probably the best thing to have come out of the UAFI spec. This gives you allocated space for, excuse me, let me not do that. Right, I'll not do that again. This gives you allocated space for bootloader code in the AFI system partition in a partition type that we were able to safely allocate for ourselves, because now partition types are a good, they're ginormous. We were able to allocate one for ourselves even when using that on top of BIOS, which you can do. There are different interpretations of the spec, unfortunately, and this causes some problems, particularly the bits that, well, when you install a system with GPT, you're supposed to put what's called a protective MBR in place. That means that anything that tries to parse the disk as MBR knows that it should stay away and not try to scribble over the partition table. The interpretation of that part of the spec is particularly bad. Apple have at least used to have a completely incompatible both ways version. You were required instead of a single giant partition to do the best job you could of representing the GPT partitions in MBR. That's incompatible both ways. I don't know if that's still the case. If you're trying to use GPT on BIOS, some PC class systems require you to set the active flag on the protective MBR partition, which the GPT spec explicitly forbids for some reason. So you're stuck both ways around on a few of those. Now, UFE is where it's at now for PC firmware, apparently. Even if your new machine looks like it's BIOS, it's almost certainly a legacy layer implemented internally on top of UEFI. The economics for firmware manufacturers are much more favorable this way, instead of having to maintain their own, I don't know how many, 100,000 lines of codebests that have accreted over the years, they can now fork Intel's Tiano Core as their starting point and just do their driver layer on top of that. This seems to have attracted essentially all of the BIOS manufacturers. We should generally expect even that legacy BIOS layer to go away soon. The direction that we're hearing from firmware people is all about that, and we need to cope with that. Now, Grubb's core support for UEFI is basically fine. It has more or less the set of drivers you'd expect, including relatively arcane things like serial support. Now, of course, the big thing recently has been what's called Secure Boot. That's a mechanism by which the firmware makes sure to only ever execute signed code in a pre-boot context. Now, it's obviously possible for this to go very wrong from the point of view of user freedom. The FSF calls Secure Boot restricted boot instead for that reason. But a lot of systems now come with Secure Boot enabled by default. We have to figure out how to work with it in the same way that we've had to figure out how to work with all kinds of devices over the years. Just as a hardware enablement matter. But the important thing is to work out how to do that in ways that don't end up impinging on our user's freedom. And that's been quite a difficult slog. The communities managed to figure out schemes for this that don't stop you modifying the operating system on your own computer, which is the important thing. We have this working on Ubuntu. We talked about this at DevCon last year. To get it working in Debian, we need DAQ to be able to sign bootloader objects that we submit to it with the Debian key. I failed at pushing that forward, so that would be a great project for somebody to take up if I've missed it and somebody else is already working on that. Brilliant. I should also mention that there are some outstanding problems with the layout of the EFI system partition, which is UE's place for putting things like bootloader code. The spec prescribes how you're supposed to behave on fixed disks versus removable disks. We follow the spec, but unfortunately some systems don't, and essentially require the removable layout. And Steve McIntyre is here at the back there. We've gone back and forward a bit on that. We need some way to select the removable layout and have that actually persist, and ideally detect that this is a problem in the first place, so that we don't have to ask an incomprehensible question in the installer. Now, more cheerily, a number of non-X86 arches are in a pretty good state. They get fairly limited testing at the moment. I know that some people use them, because occasionally I get bugs when they break, but generally they work OK. Poverty and Spark seem fine. We should probably consider switching the default bootloaders there at some point. If you're a porter for those architectures, please get in touch with me. Some MIPS type architectures work well, too. Ryan Lorty lent me a Yiluang laptop a little while back, so that I could port the Debian installer to it. And I found that Grubb was basically fine. So I was able to build the installer on top of that, and it was a tenth of the work that it might otherwise have been. There's been a pretty pleasing trend towards having new arches include a Grubb port very early on. Arm64, also, POPC64 has had Grubb working from very early in its life. And this gives them a pretty full-featured loader with not a lot of effort, so it actually works out quite well for the ports now, I think. The most recent Arm64 port I went back and looked at it was about 2,000 lines of patches to do the initial enablement. Now, that got to take advantage of the Arm ports that already existed, and also of UFE code. So that helped a lot, but still, I think it indicates a pretty porting-friendly design. OK, so if I haven't persuaded you already, why do we default to Grubb on Debian x86? There are certainly other loaders. There's the venerable Lilo, which still largely works fine. Cislinux and friends are actively maintained by some very smart people who, including folks who maintain the Linux boot protocol, and there's Xlinux is one of that family, which you can use in the same kind of way that you might use Lilo. There's Yaboot and POPC, and so on and so forth. You can even boot a kernel and an interim fest directly from the UFE environment if you want to. So some of those are pretty good bootloaders. They're almost all smaller and simpler than Grubb, and that explains that. That appeals to a lot of people. And I do get the simplicity argument. But I tend to argue that the result of that is actually moving a good deal of complexity elsewhere. So the installer, if you have a bootloader that can only handle some setups, the installer needs to know what those setups are. It needs to forbid you from doing anything that you won't be able to boot in your partitioner. You end up with slash boot partitions scattered everywhere. Having a bootloader that you can trust to handle almost anything means that you don't have to think too hard when you're moving things around. Sorry, I'll come to you in a sec, Ben, thanks. You can easily do things like having the bootloader notice when the last boot fails and behave differently. All that sort of thing is useful for a general purpose destroyer to be able to assume. What some bootloaders on MIPS couldn't load in the RAMFS, they could only load the kernel one. So for that reason, the kernel configurations we used on MIPS have had to be restricted so that they don't assume there's a new RAMFS. And you can't boot off file systems other than X2, X3, and X4. That's KOLO, is it, or Sibyl? I don't know. One of those. You have recently made it switched over, but that has been a restriction to it, including Weezy. Thanks, that's useful ammunition. I think that we do not yet have grub working on all of the MIPS big-endian architectures. It's working on little-endian, but I think there are still some problems in big-endian. So we maybe can't save the world just yet, but it might not be too far off. But thanks. And plus, Debian runs on lots of architectures. Generally, we try as an architectural thing, we try to run the same software across different architectures that it all works kind of the same way. We have the same interfaces, the same tools are available, and so on. And it makes a lot of sense to have that be the case with the bootloader, too. The installer would certainly be simplified by being able to assume that grub mount is available on all architectures, for instance. OK, so the important bit of this, we've had a lot of people involved over the years, too many to name. I've almost certainly missed some. Robert Milan and Felix Zilke and Hordi Malak have done excellent jobs in Debian a few years ago, and Vladimir Serbinenko does a great job as the upstream antenna. But as far as Debian maintenance goes, it's mostly just me at the moment, and has been for the last couple of years, and I can't do it all. We'd probably have had grub 2 in 2.00, rather than 1.99 in Weezy if we had a bit more redundancy there. I was kind of demotivated by the secure boot stuff at the time, so ended up putting it off until it was too late. And that's exactly the kind of thing where having more people involved is helpful. There are lots of bugs. Every boot problem is critical for them, quite understandably. So keeping on top of the release critical list is absolutely murder. But there are a few specific problems I'd like to highlight that are more substantial and could really do with somebody sitting down and thinking quite hard. I won't go into too much detail because I've just assigned from the video team that I'm low on time, but you can ask me about any of them if you're interested. I mentioned earlier that the system for generating the config file has a bad case of second system effects and really needs a third system to make it easier to customize things. All problems can be solved by another rewrite. On NBR systems, we often have robustness of problems with grub not installing its boot code to the place where your system actually boots from, particularly when multiple disks are involved. This tends to manifest as module loading failures, because what happens is that over time the core image that you're actually using that you didn't know about becomes incompatible with new grub modules because the API changes over time and eventually becomes incompatible and can't boot anything. And I think that that needs some kind of overhaul somewhere, although I'm not quite sure where. There are the remaining bits of UE, which I mentioned earlier. There's getting signing sorted out in Debian, getting a thing called mock manager, which is part of a separate project called shim, nicely integrated to give users control over the whole signing process, which will let us require signed kernels under secure boot, and that's to make Matthew Garrett want to kill me a little bit less. And there's the issues with the API system partition layout. There's some work to be done with upstream Zen. Excellent, both in the audience. I've discussed this with Ian Jackson in the past, to lay out, effectively, a new boot protocol for a PV grub two so that we can have Zen guests install a bootloader in a consistent place in the fast system. In fact, Ian Campbell recently sent me something which might be useful for this when I have time to read it. And hopefully, this will eventually let us kill off all of the old strange things that live in Zen to do this. And finally, we should take much better advantage of grub's ports and actually switch over to them by default on many more architectures than we have downstairs. So, well, I've just got onto questions, so accents. One of the things that I found. There's a microphone coming up. One of the things I found difficult in getting groups with grub one and grub two is that the documentation hasn't always been as good. Lilo was exceptional in that it came with an extremely good document which described its principles of operation and how to get it to do, well, almost anything you might want it to. Is that also something you're looking for help with? Yes. About a year or two ago, I went through and tried to start systematically documenting all of the grub commands and overhauling some other things and got about halfway through that before I ran out of time. But one of the problems has been with grub two that the documentation got out of date during the rewrite and thus nobody has an incentive to do it properly for their incremental changes. So I think getting that into ship would make it much easier to keep it in ship. It's better than it was in 2010. It's not where it should be. So, yes. Anybody else? Anything from IRC as well? Can you stand up? Very good. Tom. So this is sort of a related question to your comment earlier about how BIOSs are wildly inconsistent about how they choose which disks they're going to boot from. Is there anything that grub could do to help us with best practices for failover configurations? So for example, let's say I have a server and I want to install two disks that are mirrored and use LVM or something else. One of the challenges is how do I configure grub on both disks to be configured the right way, despite all of the weirdness with BIOSs, but have a reasonably easy to maintain setup where if one disk actually goes completely offline that the system could automatically reboot? Right. One of the things that I tried to do the first time I systematically attacked this in Debian Grub, the thing I tried to do was to arrange that we did by Uyrid, I think, install to disks, possibly as Bypath, I forget. So we encourage people to install to all of the disks on the system. I think this, sorry, also the grub PC post-ins notices when the disk has gone away since it last checked and is supposed to offer you the chance to update this. But you're right, it's a little bit fiddly to manage, particularly if you're in a system that is large enough that statistically disks are failing quite often, then it's a problem. And I think what I'd probably like to do is make sure that we install to the disks that are associated with a red device or something so that you could just bootstrap off the red management. I think some of that works, but isn't hooked up very well in Debian. But there are several things to do there. And I think there's also a bug in DI where it doesn't install to all of the fixed disks on your system, but only one. Yeah, there are several things to fix there. There's a question over there. I think my question could be summed up as, how tall do you have to be to ride this ride? It seems like getting started, it seems like introducing regressions would be a really scary thing for someone who wanted to get started with the project. And I'm just wondering, what kind of facilities do you have before we actually upload a new version to test across a broad range of architectures? Right, well, one of the points of this talk was to try to emphasize that you don't actually have to be as tall as people think you do. But you're right about the need for regression testing. One thing that really helps is that the different parts of grub are much more isolated now than they used to be. So you can quite easily change one module, test changes to that, without having to worry about strange leakage all over the place. But there are things that that doesn't cover. There is some boot testing arrangements in the build system, so there are some make targets that go off and do boot checks of real systems against the current version of the code. And that sort of thing helps a lot. I would like to have grub hooked up better to some kind of auto package test arrangement so that it does emulated boots across various types of systems on ci.debian.net. I'd love help with that. Steve? Now, of course, UEFI, there's a whole slew of things. I mean, as Tom was asking, of course, about NBR and reliable fallback, of course. I'm not aware of any UEFI implementations that actually do fallback for the system partition either. So that's a utter train wreck. I suspect maybe you're meant to use hardware read or something. Clearly, that's what people are expected to use, and it's a mess. We should definitely get together and talk about the removal media path. Again, there isn't a good answer, but let's try and make it as not crap as we can. Yeah, do you know of any way to detect that system, even if it's something like a blacklist of broken DMID code? I think that's all we can do.  As an example for other people who may not have come across this, there are firmware implementations out there which are straight after install may not actually recognize that you've put grub into the path where you're meant to put it. Once you've booted off a rescue system, however, and done some not particularly well understood sequence of things, including booting off a removal media path, we boot a couple more times, shuffle things around, like spin twice, clockwise, suddenly they'll then will recognize that you've put them in there. God forbid you ever want to update it again. It's painful. There are some exciting problems on Apple Macs that are a shadow of the same class of problem. Yeah, and of course, secure boot. Kibbe asked even about this a few days ago, of course, we've been talking about this for like two years. Yeah, I know. Yeah, I know. I feel rubbish as well that we haven't really got any further with it. If somebody really, really wants to help get involved in that, oh, absolutely, there's a whole load of people who would love to see you help. Not only are there a whole load of people who'd like to see you help, but there's actually roughly a road map for what needs to be done. You don't have to play as a trail. Just take the names off the road map and put your name there. It's fine. We don't really care. We just want to see it done. And the things that need to be done are, as I say, the next step, I think, is in DAC. And then somebody needs to chase up getting shim into Debian with the right kind of signatures on it and so on. But none of it is actually fundamentally hard. It just requires time to push all of that forward. Exactly. So like I say, the equipment drive. Actually, we're out of time. OK. Thank you all very much. If people in the back of the room could vacate at least temporarily so other people can get out, that'd be cool. Thank you. Yes. Do you have one for what? What connections? I'm in the store for a minute. So there is a Grubzen bin package which is unstable. Who's going to buy it? The pot is missing. It is conventions for all of us. It's coming in the way. 3-2-3-8.


Hello and welcome to the What Happens When miniseries in today's video that what happens when you stay in your comfort zone.  So how can you achieve your dreams if you play it safe? I personally find that I'm always looking for the next thing to create. To learn a new skill or expand what I'm doing, of course that might just be the entrepreneur in me. However, if you decide that you've got to a good place, you're making good sales, you're happy and content, then I say time for a change. If you don't keep that desire to level up or move forwards, you could get stuck in unproductive habits or patterns, miss out on exciting new opportunities, start eventually to see a decline in interest and even sales, and of course settle for good rather than strive for great. So wherever it is that needs some fresh energy, go back to your plan, improve it, expand on it, get excited by it, get feedback and support and just keep moving forwards, onwards and upwards. Hope you've enjoyed this little series of What Happens When videos. Make sure that you've watched all 10 because they've all got some duty tidbits in them.


Thanks, David, and I also want to join my colleagues in thanking the Barnes and Bryn Mawr for organizing this great conference and in the other speakers who've gone so far today. It's been a wonderful series of papers. In 1959, Eurus Brothers, a real estate developer in New York, erected a 32-story edifice at two Broadway at the tip of Lower Manhattan. The tower was in many ways typical of the speculative office buildings then remaking the city's skyline. Designed by architecture firm Emery Roth, the building maximized rentable space by filling the large plot and taking the required setbacks on the upper floors. Yet amidst its glassy curtain wall and repetitive aluminum patterning, the building contained an unusual feature. Above the main doors and extending for the entire 86 feet of the recessed entryway was an abstract mural designed by Lee Krasner, the abstract expressionist painter, and her nephew, artist Ronald Stein. Unfurling in a ribbon of cracked and splintered mosaic, the mural offered to passing pedestrians a collage-like surface of dark, if vibrant, earth tones lit up with the occasional bright yellow and shot through with the tracery of gray cement, the material that adhered the pieces to the wall and that leaked out between the craggy tesserae. Krasner was not the only New York painter to realize a public mural commission in the early postwar years. In 1954, Adolf Gottlieb's stained glass facade was installed on the educational annex of the Park Avenue synagogue. In 1956, Hans Hoffman, Krasner's teacher and a prominent painter himself, designed a mural to cloud the elevator housing of a third Avenue office lobby. Two years later, he completed a mosaic for a public school, and it was not just the abstract expressionists who were receiving commissions in postwar New York. Max Spivak installed his mosaics at a cafe on Broadway, at a movie theater in Long Island, at public schools in Queens and Brooklyn, and in the entryway of a sixth Avenue office building, which you see here. The lobby of the Time Life building was graced with murals by Fritz Glarner and by Yosef Albers. Ilya Bolatovsky, an important painter of 1930s abstraction, created a sinuous, wending mural for Cinema One in 1962. The two decades after World War Two were a renaissance for public abstraction, for abstract art explicitly designed for architectural spaces and for public consumption. Most attempts to make sense of abstract murals in these years turned to the influential critic Clement Greenberg, who throughout the 1940s compared the growing scale of the abstract expressionist canvas to the mural. As he stated, quote, in this day and age, the art of painting increasingly rejects the easel and yearns for the wall. Other scholars have taken Mark Rothko's Seagram murals, created at the end of the 1950s, as the paradigmatic abstract wall paintings. Designed for but never installed in the Four Seasons restaurant in New York's Seagram building, the mural seemed to capture a central tension in 20th century art between the seriousness of high modernist abstraction and its quick conversion into a fashionable backdrop for the upper classes. And yet these critical lineages of Greenberg and Rothko, important as they are in the history of abstract expressionism, seem insufficient to the field of post-war public abstraction, as I briefly sketched it here. For one, the many murals appearing in the 1950s and 1960s made use of a plethora of materials, not just paint, but also mosaic, metal, cement, and stained glass, a far cry from Greenberg's insistence on the medium specificity of pure painting. Furthermore, the murals exhibit a stylistic diversity, cheerful quasi-surrealist forms, geometric abstraction, glistening fields of color that extend beyond just the gestural painting of abstract expressionism. Perhaps most significantly, the murals' explicit concern with public communication, cited at the entrances, facades, and lobbies of these buildings, are a far cry from Rothko's unfinished project, intended for the more rarefied and somewhat private realm of fine dining. In my talk today, I'll focus on a subset of these murals mosaics made for the new corporate towers that rose with startling speed over New York at the end of the 1950s. These murals, I argue, typified by the mosaics of Hoffman, Spivak, and Krasner, triangulated between three roles. They acted as a form of publicity. They served as a visual complement to the austerity of modern architecture, and they were incorporated with remarkable ease into the speed and demands of post-war speculative office building. The first thing to note about the office murals generally is how closely they map onto the centers of new business construction in New York City. When Hoffman's mural was unveiled, commenters hailed the building, 711 Third Avenue, as the jumpstart for Third Avenue's long- awaited midtown office boom. The avenue's elevated subway line had just been dismantled, and one architecture journal credited Hoffman's gleaming mosaic with, quote, lending bright notes to a neighborhood only recently under the shadow of the Third Avenue, L. Further west, Sixth Avenue, which had shed its elevated line just before the war, was also emerging as a site of new construction. The building housing Spivak's mural was greeted as an early volley in that avenue's redevelopment. The Glarner and Albers murals, although I won't be talking more about them today, were cited in the Time Life building, whose completion in 1959 signaled Sixth Avenue's definitive transformation into the heart of New York's business world. For its part, Krasner's mural graced the facade of the first major skyscraper in Lower Manhattan in over 20 years, one that signaled Wall Street's return as a bustling hub for business. We can see the towers and their murals as thus intimately involved in the changing geography of capital and post war New York City as finance and construction remapped the building. Framed this way, embedded within a changing urban fabric, the questions become less ones of mural tendency or artistic intention and more ones of use. What was the function of abstraction in these new buildings? What needs of corporations, office workers, real estate agents did abstraction fulfill in the public spaces of modern architecture? On the most basic level, the mural served as ways to generate press and prestige for the builders that commissioned them. The planning and installing of murals was newsworthy enough to occasion numerous mentions and articles. Critics were quick to latch on to examples of what one called the new alliance between art and architecture. Furthermore, the use of abstract murals endowed the buildings with a level of cultural cache as hosts of the latest art trends. When Hoffman's mural was completed on Third Avenue, the building developers held a preview for the unveiling along the lines of an art opening and put together a pamphlet in which they described the murals as a blend of tradition and modernity. Installed at the entrances of these towers, the murals acted as a form of publicity, broadcasting the building's character or status to those who entered. In the period discussion of these murals, a persistent trope surfaces, one with origins earlier in the decade, that abstract art could be a source of vitality and humanism for a modern architecture to void of both. Spivak's mural wrote the Times will quote, relieve the grayness of the lobby with its multi-colored tesserae. In the words of another writer, Spivak's mosaics bring joy, vitality and excitement to public place. They humanize the stone and steel of modern living. In the pamphlet on Hoffman's elevator mosaic, the developers wax poetic about the life and luminosity in Hoffman's art, which they hoped would vitalize the lobby. From Life Magazine to Architectural Forum, writers offered variants of this argument. Architecture critic Ada Louise Huckstable explained how, quote, the large scale, the excitement, the explosive color and the intricate, often sensuous patterns of abstract art add congenial richness to the austerity of today's building forms. Fortune magazine, in an article on the corporate splurge in abstract art, noted that, quote, not only is abstract art in vast supply, but it happens to fulfill a good many needs of modern architecture. It is big, colorful, often highly decorative and creates a welcome contrast to severe, rigorously detailed building. For these and other writers, it was not just the look of buildings that was at stake here. It was a question of the character of modern life itself, a life increasingly dominated by corporate values. The Times, for example, was typical in noting how, quote, as our new buildings went up and our streets took on the look of endless canyons of glittering glass walls and little varying steel grids, with nothing to relieve their bleak monotony, the very human need grew for something more. Or in the blunter words of Fortune, abstraction could, quote, provide a sense of emotional release and give the beholder a thin grip on humanity in a business machine world. Abstraction, according to these critics, returned the human and the emotional to a corporate world that had exiled such values. If publicity and a sort of compensatory humanism were functions sought out by the corporate patrons of these works, the abstract mural as a form was a remarkably useful vehicle for realizing them, particularly in the context of the speculative office tower, the location of all three of the mosaic murals. Critic Douglas Haskell characterized the speculative towers as, quote, the quick return, low cost rental office building with plentiful elevators, acreages of modern curtain wall, and generally not much architectural merit. Emory Roth, who designed to Broadway was one of the leading architecture firms for such buildings. As they describe themselves in a business week profile, quote, we're in the business of designing buildings for businessmen who put up buildings for other businessmen. These speculative towers by Roth and others were emphatically not the high profile prestige buildings like Seagram or Chase Manhattan Bank. Those buildings serving as architecturally striking headquarters for a large corporation tended to make their concessions to public art and humanism through three dimensional works, fountains and sculptures that emphasize the open expanses of their ground level plazas. Speculative buildings on the other hand, which generally occupied the entire plot rather than making provisions for plazas, could make great use of abstract murals, which non referential and repetitive were easily scalable to a given size and space. As two-dimensional skins or cladding, murals didn't require substantive changes to building design that would eat up valuable floor space. Nor did they interfere with construction schedules or engineering concerns. Speculative towers were full of available surfaces, elevator banks, doorways, entrance facades that could easily be recruited. William Kauffman, the building developer who footed the bill for the Hoffman mural, commented directly on the return on investment for such murals. Quote, it costs so little to have something outstanding, he told Architectural Forum, I'm amazed more spec builders don't go in for it. Indeed, at Two Broadway, Eurus Brothers, the developers of Two Broadway, paid less than $30,000, a little over half a percent of the total building cost for the design and manufacture of Krasner's mural. In concluding, I want to return to Two Broadway, where we began. How did the needs of publicity, abstract warmth and speculative construction play out here? The mural was indeed used as publicity. Upon its completion, Eurus Brothers sent out press releases to the editors of architecture and mainstream papers, as well as to the directors of New York museums. In at least one article, the mural was held up as the saving grace of the building, the one distinguished accent on an otherwise low brow edifice. And what was the mural's relationship to corporate life? Did it effectively rescue the building from soulless rationality or at least soften the hard edges of architectural monotony? Two fascinating articles from 1959 read Krasner's mural in precisely these terms, as a battle between business and humanism, although they reached opposite conclusions. The first, by B.H. Friedman for Craft Horizons, begins with a glowing evocation of the old produce exchange, the building demolished to make way for the skyscraper. Decorating the new building, the New Two Broadway, the new skyscraper is uniquely difficult because of the nature of modern materials. What was lacking, Friedman writes, was, quote, the ornamentation and texture of the old red brick produce exchange and the effects upon it of time itself. For even time, he continued, the weathering and character giving friend of undistinguished architecture cannot help aluminum and glass. Friedman suggests that Krasner's mural is, if not an outright reference, at least a ghostly echo of the ornamented red masonry structure that used to occupy the site. Indeed, there is something hard, flinty and enduring about the mural. Its cracked and textured surface suggests an aerial view of terrain or sedimented fossil layers. For Friedman, the mural does not just humanize the building, it imparts a sense of temporality, persistence, even history that is lacking in the resolutely contemporary structure around it. A second reviewer, Leslie Katz, writing in The Nation, saw a more pernicious connection between the building and the mural. Like many others, he began by deriding the two Broadway Tower, which, he sneered, quote, can hardly be called a building. It is more an installation, a package, a broad box encased in shiny wrapping, presenting an anonymous and faceless personality. Its overall effect is one of unmitigated self-assertion, negating everything in sight but itself, a glittering non-entity. For Katz, Krasner's mural does not add something human or historical to the anonymous package, rather it betrays the very same impulse. The facade, he writes, is glorified and enshrined at its entourage by a large, wide, abstract mosaic, an innocuous arabesque of round and jagged colored shapes. Like the building, this mosaic is committed to nothing beyond the mystique and logic of its own specialized, abstract function as a thing apart, a law unto itself, a disrelation, end quote. In the early post-war years, public abstraction fulfilled a number of roles for its patrons and viewers. It was a tool for publicity and prestige. It added humanist vitality to the impersonal regimes of corporate life. And it did this particularly well for speculative office buildings that filled their plots completely and sought quick return on investment. In the case of Krasner's mural and its competing interpretations, abstraction was seen both as an analog to speculative capital, pure, instrumental, without relation, and as a resistant force within that system, textural, temporal, weathered, adding interest and history. That Krasner's mural could inspire such disparate readings as a sign both of the urgency of such concerns about corporate life in the modern world, and a sign of abstraction's own complex role at mid- century in answering them. Thank you.