We have seen that most of the cloud systems that give us rain over the Indian region are in fact, born over the surrounding oceans. So, we have already seen that most of the cloud systems that give rain over land are actually born over the oceans around us or you can say Bay of Bengal equatorial Indian ocean. So, naturally the variability of monsoon rainfall is linked to the variability of the cloud systems or the organized convection or rainfall over the tropical oceans. So, and it is very important to understand what determines the variability of organized deep convection that is cloud systems over tropical oceans. Now, we have seen that clouds are generated when water vapor in the air condenses to form liquid water. So, clearly a critical element is the amount of water vapor in the air. The source of water vapor as we all know is evaporation from the oceans. Now, when we let us consider evaporation from a liquid or water specifically, the average energy of the particles in a liquid is governed by the temperature. The higher the temperature, the higher the average energy. But within that average, some particles have energies higher than the average and others have energies lower than the average. Some of the more energetic particles on the surface of the liquid can be moving fast enough to escape from the attractive forces holding the liquid together. They evaporate and occur in gaseous form in the air above. So, this is the water vapor that we see. So, we have all these particles of water here and some of the energetic ones as you can see are escaping from the water surface and evaporating into the air above and this is what constitutes the vapor. Now, like other gases, water vapor also exerts pressure and this is called vapor pressure. As the gaseous particles bounce around, some of them will hit the surface of the liquid again and be trapped there. So, you know you have all these particles moving around in liquid and in air above and as the gaseous particles in the air bounce around, some of them will hit the liquid surface and get trapped there. So, when the space above the liquid is saturated with vapor particles, the pressure exerted by the water vapor is the saturation vapor pressure. So, when the space above the water surface is saturated with vapor particles, the pressure exerted by the water vapor is called the saturation vapor pressure. In this case that is to say when the air above is saturated with water vapor, there is an equilibrium in which the number of particles leaving the surface is exactly balanced by the numbers rejoining it. So, you have a water surface here and the number of particles leaving the water surface is exactly equal to the numbers rejoining it. So, there is an equilibrium maintained and thus the change from liquid to vapor is balanced exactly by the change from vapor to liquid. Now, the forward change which is liquid to vapor is endothermic. It needs heat to convert liquid into vapor. Now, according to Lesch et alia, increasing the temperature of a system in a dynamic equilibrium favours the endothermic change. That means that increasing the temperature increases the amount of vapor present and so increases the saturated vapor pressure. As you increase the temperature, the particles in the liquid have more energy, more can escape and the equilibrium shifts to a larger amount of water vapor in the air. So, it turns out that the saturation vapor pressure is highly sensitive to the variation of the temperature. So, it is a non-linear function of the temperature as we will see. Now, the nature of the variation of the saturation vapor pressure with the temperature is governed by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. I will just briefly mention what it is. It says DES by DT that is to say the variation of ES is the saturation vapor pressure above a liquid surface. L is the latent heat of vaporization, T is the temperature. So, this is saying what is the slope of the saturation pressure curve versus temperature. And that slope is equal to L over T, T is the temperature and alpha represents the specific volume of the vapor alpha V and alpha L is of the liquid. So, alpha is the specific volume, alpha V is of the vapor, alpha L of the liquid. Now for this is the equation Clausius-Clapeyron relation that governs the rate of change of saturation vapor pressure with temperature. And you can see that it is inversely proportionate to the temperature. Now, this is what makes it highly non-linear. For terrestrial conditions, a 1 percent change in temperature say about 3 degrees centigrade or Kelvin implies a 20 percent change in the saturation vapor pressure. So, this is what I meant when I said that the saturation vapor pressure is a highly sensitive function of temperature. Now, the fractional change in the specific humidity at saturation which is Q star. The specific humidity is the mass of water vapor per unit volume. So, it is related to the fractional change of temperature by delta Q star by Q star again proportional to delta T by T. Now, this is a plot of how the saturation vapor pressure which is on the y axis varies with temperature. And you can see that it is a highly non-linear curve. This is the temperature in degree centigrade and this is the specific humidity grams per unit of air. So, this is how the specific humidity varies and you can see that around 20 degrees or so 25 degrees it is a very very rapid increase in saturation vapor pressure with temperature. Now, so far we have been talking about the temperature of air. Since the temperature of air at or near the sea surface is close to the sea surface temperature SST, we expect the quantity of water vapor in the surface air to be also sensitive to the SST. Hence, the saturated vapor pressure also varies non-linearly with SST. And in fact, the sea surface temperature or SST is the most popular candidate for explaining the variation of tropical convection. So, it is widely believed that a critical parameter which determines the variation of tropical convection is the sea surface over tropical oceans is the sea surface temperature SST. Now, the question that is to be addressed is how is the organized moist convection on the scale of a few hundred kilometers or more related to SST. So, this is what we will look at in this lecture. Now, this also has a long history half a century ago, Parman suggested that SST has to be above a threshold of 26.5 degrees centigrade for tropical disturbances to intensify to tropical cyclones or hurricanes. So, this is something that Parman suggested from observations that unless the SST is above 26.5, the tropical disturbances that you get over tropical oceans will not intensify to hurricanes. Next came a pioneering study by Birkness in 1969 which showed that the variation of monthly rainfall over Canton Island in the Central Equatorial Pacific could actually be attributed to variations in SST. And this is a picture from his classic paper and what you see here is the rainfall is given here below. This is the rainfall and you can see these are the units of rainfall and this is sea surface temperature is in solid and air temperature is in dashed. So, let us focus on the sea surface temperature. Note that generally the monthly rainfall is less than 10 centimeters. So, this is rainfall in millimeters. Generally the rainfall is less than this 10 centimeters or so. But every now and then you get these high rainfall events or episodes which last for several months, 2 months here but several months here. And these are invariably associated with SST above a threshold of about 27.8 or 28 somewhere around 28. So, if the solid line is above that then you get these peaks in rainfall. When it is below that what you get is these very very small peaks and rainfall generally not exceeding 10 centimeters. So, this is what this was for 1950 to 67. So, that generally the monthly rainfall is less than 10 centimeters. However, there were periods when the monthly rainfall was sustained at a high level that is well over 10 to 50 centimeters for several months when the SST was above 28 degrees. This is shown by Birkenness. Now actually the problem was how does one assess rainfall over the oceans or convection over the oceans? So, systematic investigation of the variation of convection and its relationships with the SST became possible only after the availability of satellite data because through this eye in the sky one could actually see the cloud systems on a day to day basis. This is why systematic investigation of the relationship of convection with SST became possible once satellites were available. In the first such study the relationship between monthly cloudiness intensity determined from cloudiness index derived from satellite imagery over the equatorial Indian Ocean Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea and the SST was investigated. So, this was the first study of SST convection relationship and this was done by Gadgil et al. And what we did then was the following the data used were the following. First is daily values of a cloudiness index ranging from 1 to 9 each 2.5 at each 2.5 degree squares over the tropics based on operational neph analysis prepared by Ness and Nova and compiled by Sadler and Associates. So, this was the basic data that was used and this was this is what we call the Sadler data and this was in fact neph analysis is you know subjective assessment of satellite imagery. So, subjective assessment of satellite imagery gave rise to these values of cloudiness index again which were prepared by Sadler and others the basic satellite imagery and basic neph analysis was provided by Ness and Nova. So, this was the basic data set it is important to remember that at the time of this study digital data from satellite like outgoing long wave radiation etcetera were not available. So, the best digital data we could get was actually these values of cloudiness index derived from an assessment of satellite imagery. Monthly SST over oceanic regions were available and this is because one of the co-authors of the study was in India Med Department PV Joseph and he had actually compiled he and Pillai had compiled SST data for 5 degree latitude longitude grids from 40 to 100 degrees east that is entire Indian Ocean north of 10 south. And these data were available and they were originally collected from voluntary observational fleet of over 40 maritime nations and stored at the national data center of the India Med Department and Joseph was working at that time in the India Med Department and he and Pillai had actually generated a data set of monthly SST using these voluntary observational fleet data that was with IMD. Now, a comparison of the daily distribution of the Sadler index with the hemispheric mosaics analyzed by Sikha and Gadgil and we have seen a lot of those in the last lecture showed that synoptic and large scale convection such as the TCG Tropical Convergence Zone is associated with Sadler index of 6 or larger. So we subjectively decided by comparison with satellite imagery that Sadler index of for cloudiness of 6 or larger implied deep organized clouds. In this study the cloudiness intensity hence for CI at any grid point at for any month was calculated as the sum of the Sadler index for that for the days on which it was 6 or larger. So at every grid point you will have some value of cloudiness index and there are absolutely no clouds it will be 0 otherwise it will range from 1 to 9. So at every grid point for every month what we did is calculate the number of days on which CI the cloudiness index was 6 or larger. Now at each grid point for each month of the summer monsoon season we therefore had a pair of values one was the cloudiness intensity which is now available on monthly scale and SST available from 7 seasons of let me just mention that it is important to remember that cloudiness index is not simply the number of days on which the Sadler index was 6 or larger rather it is the sum of the Sadler index for the number of days on which it was 6 or larger. So if on some days it was 7, 8 or 9 that day was counted as more than one value right. So one day it would be 9, one day it would be 6 and you would sum over all these days for which the index was 6 or larger. So there was a measure of also intensity involved in this. So at each grid point then we had values for the cloudiness intensity CI and SST and they were available for the 7 seasons of 66 and 72. Now there are 58 grid points each 5 degree latitude by 5 degree longitude in the study area thus there are more than 1600 pairs of values of CI and SST. Now remember that the original Sadler data was on a higher resolution than the SST data. So we had to make it coarser. We had to average over the SST grids to get the oil to get the cloudiness intensity. So we had several values 16 more than 1600 pairs of values of a cloudiness index and co-located SST right. Cloudiness index of the clouds above is a grid point and the SST of that same grid point. Now we are interested in deriving the relationship between cloudiness index and SST and we have the 1600 pairs of values. So the most straightforward way of depicting the relationship between CI and SST is a scatter plot with the frequency of the points in each SST CI bin indicated. So what you see here is a scatter plot this is the cloudiness intensity this is SST and we have bins of SST here and each bin of SST and cloudiness index you either see a blank or you see a dot and the size of dot tells you that how many points there are and in fact that is indicated here 1 to 4 is the smallest dot 5 to 9 is bigger and greater than 10 is the biggest. So most of the points are where the big dots are in this. So this is a very nice way to look at a relationship between two variables it is a scatter plot and it has the information of the total region and the total number of months you have what is the relationship between cloudiness and SST. The most remarkable feature of this distribution is the restriction of the points to the right of the lines of A, B and B, C. Now you see here these are first of all you see that all the cloudiness points are to the right of this curve here. So that is to say to the left of these two lines there are hardly any points at all. So given SST you have a restriction see below this there is absolutely no cloudiness then given an SST of 24 the cloudiness intensity is rather small restricted to less than 10 given an SST of 26 also it is restricted to 50 and so with this line you see that the minimum cloudiness associated cloudiness intensity associated with an SST is actually increasing sorry maximum cloudiness intensity is actually increasing. It is increasing from a very low value to something rather large over 100 by the time you come to about 28 degrees or 27.5 degrees interestingly after this it can be anywhere after this it does not really show any steady increase rather it is just at a high level everywhere. So the maximum cloudiness intensity first increases with SST and then becomes flat. Now look at the minimum cloudiness intensity interestingly the minimum cloudiness intensity is 0 up to about 28 beyond 28 degree centigrade the minimum starts to increase. Until it comes to about this point and this is the point after that there are no points at all with clouds. So this is a very very interesting pattern. So what have we seen the most remarkable feature of this distribution is the restriction of the points to the right of the lines A, B and B, C. A given level of C, I occurs only if the SST above a specific value which is clearly a necessary condition for organized convection. For SST below 28 there is a well defined value for the maximum C, I which increases linearly with SST whereas above 28 it seems to become independent of SST. We have also seen this up to about 28 the minimum C, I is 0. So let us go back and see that we have already seen that up to about 28 the minimum C, I is 0 above that it increases with SST. About SST being a necessary condition is here that unless SST is above 26 you will not get intensities of the level of 100. See this is what one means by SST being above a specific value for a given level of C, I to occur. So it is a necessary condition for organized convection. These are very very interesting features that we have seen how the maximum depend up to the threshold the maximum depends on maximum C, I depends on SST. Beyond below the threshold the minimum is independent of SST above the threshold the minimum starts increasing with SST but above the threshold the maximum becomes independent of SST. Now another way of looking at this variation is what is the probability of different values of C, I for given SST ranges. Now if we go back to this graph suppose we specify an SST range somewhere here then you can see that largest number of points are at 0. So maximum number of points are at 0 and then slowly you will have some number of points as you go higher and higher C, I. Now here if you see the probability say at 28 then the maximum number of points seem to have some cloudiness intensity somewhere between 50 and 100 and so or so. And so one can talk of probability of occurrence of different cloudiness intensity levels for a specific range of SST and that is what is plotted in the next diagram here. So what we see here is we go from 24.5 to 25.5. So these are 1 degree specified limits of SST and what you see here is frequency of cloudiness intensity. How often did this cloudiness and the cloudiness intensity is on the x axis? This is 0, this is 30, 60, 90 and so on 120. So these are monthly values of cloudiness intensity and over very cold oceans you can see the most likely is that you will have no clouds at all. Then possibility of having 10 CAI becomes little bit is a little bit may be around 20 or so and so on and then higher becomes very very small. Same pattern you see as you go to somewhat warmer seas that is 25.5 to 26.5. But now you can see that the probability of getting high CAI is slightly more than it was earlier. And again for somewhat higher 26.5 to 27.5 you see actually that this mode has now become shorter whereas it 60 percent chance of no zero CAI was there. Now it is much more like less than 30 percent and chance of getting other values of CAI probability of getting other values of CAI has increased and you have got somewhat long tail here. Then as you cross 27.5 and go to 27.5 to 28.5 there is a remarkable change in pattern notice that all along here the mode or the most likely CAI was at zero. Now suddenly the mode of the distribution or where the peak is or the most likely CAI has shifted from zero to somewhere around 30 between 30 and 60 and that is how it remains for SSD is beyond this. So there is indeed a very remarkable change across this 27.5 here in which the likelihood of zero cloudiness is much less than the likelihood of substantive cloudiness between 30 and 60 above the threshold whereas likelihood of zero cloudiness is the maximum likelihood below the threshold. So you see across 27.5 which I kept calling the threshold in fact 27.5 turns out to be a threshold below the threshold the distribution is like this above the threshold the mode has shifted. And if we go back to the scatter plot there also we have seen 28 as a limit we could see that below 28 you had a certain kind of distribution where you had actually the maximum CAI determined by SSD and above 28 there is a huge spread of CAI given any kind of specific SSD range. So we said the propensity of convection the propensity of convection is very high above the threshold of about 28 or 27.5 and below the threshold the propensity of convection is low and the mode shifts across the threshold from zero here you can see the mode is zero to some substantive cloudiness intensity once you cross the threshold. So this is what we have seen now and so the frequency distribution so the probability of different values of CAI for a given SSD ranges which we saw also shows a market change across 28. So whereas the most probable CAI that is the mode is zero for SSD below 28 it shifts to about 40 units above this SSD. So Gadgettall concluded that SSD of 28 degrees so is a threshold for active generation of organized convection. The propensity of convection is high for SSD above the threshold and for SSD below the threshold convection tends to get suppressed. So far we have been talking of studies using cloudiness intensity but now this paper was published in 84 in Nature subsequent to this digitized data on outgoing long wave radiation or OLR became available and Graham and Barnett revisited the same problem what is the relationship between SSD and convection using actually OLR outgoing long wave radiation as a measure of convection. And using this much better data set digital data set in fact they found that the relationship that was discovered using cloudiness intensity actually remains the same even if you use these better data set. So what did Graham and Barnett use they use 5 degree by 5 degree average of OLR for 5 day periods and they actually filtered the 40 to 60 day Madden Julian oscillation from these data but we will see that later on just by using raw OLR data also it makes no difference to the results. Now the scatter plot indicating the number of grid points with SSD OLR values in each bin based on co-located SSD and OLR at 20 sites in the tropical Indian and Pacific ocean is shown here and this is from Graham and Barnett you see the features are very similar to what we had seen here this is the threshold that they get they get around 27.5 and what you see is that for SSD now this is OLR you must remember that low values of OLR correspond to high cloud tops and therefore more convection. So this OLR axis is shown in a reverse way maximum OLR is 300 is here and minimum is up there and 240 watts per meter square is considered as a limit. So OLR should be for monthly scales OLR should be below 240 for the clouds to be considered sufficiently deep to represent deep convection. So 240 below 240 is what we have to look at and these are the clouds here you see and propensity of these deep clouds becomes higher once the threshold is crossed again in the same way you know the minimum convection that increases with SSD here. So, the major problem and above the threshold you can see that there is a very large variation of OLR given the SSD. So there is hardly any relationship between SSD and convection once the threshold is crossed. So these all these features were what we had seen earlier with cloudiness index. So values of monthly OLR below 240 are generally associated with deep convection it is seen that over cold oceans that is below the palm and threshold there are hardly any points with OLR less than 240 watts per square meter suggesting that convection organized on the scale of 250 by 250 is very rare for such low SSD. Now as for CI as I mentioned this when SSD increases beyond the threshold maximum OLR decreases with SSD that is to say the minimum convection increases with SSD. The value of OLR with maximum chance of occurrence that is the mode shifts towards lower values of OLR as SSD increases but remains higher than 240 watts per meter square for SSD less than 20 that is to say SSD below the threshold. Now in addition to pooling all the points together as we saw Graham and Barnett actually present data also for individual points and they select two points one is A at the point A and I will mention where it is located the SSD at that individual point is always above the threshold and what do we expect in that case that there will be no relationship between convection and SSD whereas if the SSD variation is across the threshold that is to say at a point B again I will just show the plot then the scatter plot we get is what is a mini version of what we had seen earlier. So A is in the Bay of Bengal 90 degrees east and 5 degrees north SSD is always maintained above the threshold and the OLR is independent of SSD. So you are always in this part of the scatter plot on the other hand if we look at 50 east and 15 south then we have an SSD variation going all the way from almost 24 to beyond 28 and what you see is that no convection below 28 and above convection above 28 convection has become independent of SSD. So SSD varies from 24 to above the threshold OLR is above 240 when SSD is below the threshold but varies between 210 to 260 watts per meter square similar when it is above the threshold. So this is very similar this is like a mini version of the scatter plot you had seen earlier which was here. So what you get in the case of that point B is just this part here but a mini version of the entire one. So these relationships hold now the not only when you consider a large region together where space time variation is mixed up but also where you consider the temporal variation at fixed points in space. So what are the major results now from cloudiness intensity and OLR relationship to SSD. High propensity for organized convection over warm oceans with SSD above about 27.5 or 28 degrees centigrade called the threshold. Second is when the SSD is above the threshold the cloudiness intensity or OLR varies over a large range from almost no convection to intense deep convection. The scatter plot for co-located SSD and OLR over the Indian ocean based on July data is also rather similar. So one does not have to do the filtering that they did of 30 to 40 to 60 day mode and what you see here is for the Indian ocean 15th out to 20 north 60 degrees east to 100 degrees east. Again the size and intensity of the stars show how many points there are and what you see is exactly the same shape and you know this total enormous scatter once you cross about 28 or 27.5. So this is similar and again once is percentage of grids in different OLR ranges for specified SSD again same story you see. You see that SSD is 24.5 again it has now increased to 25.5 and this is 26.5, 27.5 and so on and so forth. Now here the only difference is that a mode has shifted a little bit even before the threshold. Now consider next the variation with SSD of the mean OLR and the standard deviation of OLR for each SSD for July for the Indian ocean. Now so here what we are saying is at each range of SSD we derive the mean and also the standard deviation and what you see here is plotted variation of mean OLR versus SSD and what you see is that there is a very sharp increase in mean OLR across the threshold you see from about here may be 27 to about 28.5 or so there is a sharp increase in the mean and after that it remains flat and the standard deviation becomes very large from about 27.5 or so. So this is what we see and it is seen that the mean OLR decreases rapidly from about 26 to about 29 degree centigrade and remains more or less constant for higher SSD. The standard deviation is large for SSD higher than about 27.5. Now so far we have seen that when we used OLR the relationship is very similar. Now Wallis are actually used one more data set which was the so called HRC data set. Let me first of all explain to you what this is. See so far I have considered only the satellite derived outgoing long wave radiation OLR and low values of OLR are associated with a high radiating surface that is to say a high cloud top and high cloud tops are associated with deep clouds as well as serious clouds that is the problem. You can have thin clouds that you see on top you know very near the top of our troposphere and those clouds are not deep convective clouds but the radiating surface is high. So they will also have low values. Now hence it is believed that high value of reflectivity or Albedo may be a better index for assessment of deep clouds. But actually one needs both Albedo and OLR one has to make sure that a lot of light gets reflected from the cloud that is to say it is deep and also that its top is high enough. So OLR also has to be low. Now relationship of the frequency of highly reflective clouds to HR that is to say HRC to SST was investigated by Walliser. Now highly reflective clouds again this is all done by subjective analysis highly reflective clouds are identified by using visible satellite mosaics and then the lower and medium level clouds amongst them were filtered out with the use of infrared mosaics by Garcia. So this is the way of using bispectral information both visible and infrared visible to first filter out which is the regions with highly reflective clouds and then from that regions those regions remove the clouds which are whose tops are not sufficiently high by using you know infrared which is what we use by OLR. So this is similar to the bispectral algorithms use later. So these dataset comprises of values 0 or 1 on a 1 degree by 1 degree grid from which deep organized tropical convective systems extending at least 200 kilometers horizontally can be verified identified. The HRC dataset is for 25 south to 25 north round the globe. So now using that dataset for the entire global tropical oceans what Walliser shows is the following. This is again the mean and this time he shows the standard deviation by shading. So what you see here is just the number of points corresponding to each SST range and what you can see interestingly is that beyond 29 the number of points with SST higher than 29 decreases very rapidly with SST. But now let us go to SST HRC relationship what you see is that the mean is very flat mean is almost 0 very close to 0 until a certain point about 26 which is the palm and threshold then the mean begins to increase up to 29 which is what we had seen in OLR as well and then it decreases. Now this decrease is something that was first pointed out by Walliser although the decrease becomes little less reliable because the sample of points also become much less than they were in the earlier part. But Walliser showed that the decrease was real when we compare with OLR mean then this is the OLR mean for global tropical oceans and it appears that actually the convection is decreasing with SST as you go here. But this is not the correct this is not due to convection decreasing rather it is true that OLR is increasing as you go here and here but this has to this has to do so OLR is decreasing with SST here right and that is simply because there are no clouds but the ocean surface is cooler so the OLR is less. So this this decrease in OLR is due to decrease of the SST itself it has nothing to do with clouds and when we look at HRC we see that below 26 or so actually there is no change in HRC it is very very close to 0. Now above this the patterns are very very similar as you can see there is an increase from about 26 to about 29 and a decrease after that. So the new feature that Walliser found was that convection is a decreasing function of SST beyond 29.5 thus the maximum SST does not occur over the warmest oceans rather the warmest oceans occur under clear skies. See we are looking at SST convection relationship but always in the back of meteorologist mind is that somehow SST is the cause and convection is the effect. But in fact what Walliser pointed out is true more SST means more water vapor which may increase the propensity of convection but the highest SST you get under cloud free skies because radiation directly goes to heat the tropical ocean. So this is an important point to remember. Now in fact it turns out that the basic relationship we have seen from the scatter plots of cloudiness intensity versus SST as well as from OLR versus SST HRC versus SST the same pattern is faithfully shown by all the later day and better assessments of clouds. So there is a very special satellite called cloud set from where you can get dependence on the vertical distribution of clouds on SST from clouds at measurements and this is from some work done by Rajeev et al and this is for 30 to 120, 30 south to 30 north Indian subcontinent and period June to February. So it includes actually all the months of the year and what you see is that the shift in the mode you see from about 0 till 27 and by 28 the entire mode has shifted to deep clouds. This is where clouds have reached very high. So note the shift in the mode from shallow to deep clouds around SST of 28 degrees and this is a result from Rajeevan studies and again you see the same thing cloud and this is the cloud ice water content cloud ice water path and cloud liquid water path these are also from cloud set integrated over different layers and what you see again is that you get very deep presence of liquid water and ice beyond 28. So this threshold story is borne out and again when you look at scatter plots over different regions again the same story appears that you have a kind of a exactly similar in nature about 28 suddenly you start getting a huge spread in the values of cloud liquid water. Thus the relationship of organized convection over tropical oceans to SST first elucidated by use of cloudiness intensity has withstood the test of time and studies with better indices such as OLR HRC and vertical distribution of clouds or cloud liquid water path and ice water path have yielded the same basic features. Now Walliser has also shown that okay so this is as far as the relationship is concerned but the value of the threshold need not be exactly the same from one region to another and this was very elegantly shown by Walliser. What he did was plot the same curves but now for different regions so you have North Indian, West Pacific, ITCG and Equatorial Pacific and Atlantic ITCG and what you see is that actually there are major differences see this is the Equatorial Pacific and you can see that for it the threshold is around 28 that is also true for West Pacific West Pacific actually the convection tends to be more but again the threshold is 28 or so but when he talks of the ITCG Equatorial Pacific is we have seen West Pacific we have seen then there is the Atlantic this is the now this is the West Pacific Atlantic is the dashed curve so Atlantic should be this one and Atlantic you see that the threshold is somewhat lower it is 27.5 so this is an important point that Walliser made and you can see it also very clearly here that you see Atlantic it is flattening out or after 27.5 whereas for some of the other ones it can be even larger it appears that for West Pacific and so on the mean seems to be increasing almost till 29 so there is some variation from region to region in the actual value of the threshold. Now let us see so far we have been talking only of clouds it is also important to see how the rainfall varies and this is again from a study by Rajendra and others 2012 and what you see here is scatter plots of the same kind but now you have rainfall on the y axis since of convection measures SST on the x axis and the number of points is given here from blue to gray it increases very much this is for the entire Indian ocean which you have seen before what you see here is also plot of the mean and you can see mean increasing and then beyond 28 or so becoming flat this is the 90 percentile and this is the standard deviation standard deviation also behaves very similarly as the mean. Now let us go to the central Pacific and the importance of this region this region will come clear to you once we talk about the El Nino Southern Oscillation and so on this is the central Pacific notice that central Pacific there is a large variation across the threshold large number of points are below the threshold and not that many above the threshold and there is actually a considerable variation across the threshold in that case you see that the mean is very sensitive to SST beyond 26 mean in fact varies linearly with SST. So, depending on the region depending on how the SST is distributed in the region you get different kind of characteristics of the mean and this is tropical way specific a region like the point A in Graham and Barnett it is always maintained above the threshold and there is no relationship at all between this you can see here in fact this is the Indian Ocean SST distribution and you can see the mode is above the threshold for Nino 3.4 which is the central Pacific region in fact it is spread out here and for WPO it is here. So, you get entirely different patterns now correlation of the rainfall with local SST note that for a region such as tropical west Pacific for which the SST is always maintained above the threshold there is hardly any relationship between the rainfall and SST with a large range of the variation of rainfall for each SST on the other hand for the Nino 3.4 region of the central Pacific the rainfall varies across the threshold and mean rainfall does increase with SST. In fact in the Gargil et al paper itself we had shown that when if we restrict our attention to SSTs beyond a certain value if we take entire region so SST beyond 24.5 the correlation is 0.5 or so, but as we go increase to higher and higher SSTs then at 20 beyond 28 it has already dropped to 183 and beyond 28.5 it has become insignificant. So, the correlation decreases and this is because the spread of the sea eye increases enormously. In fact Graham and Barnett have pointed out that one might be tempted to fit a sharp looking curve to the distribution which suggests a strong dependence of convection on SST. However, associations between SSTs and OLR for SSTs above 28 degrees at applicable locations suggests that the dependence of the level of convection in this temperature range is usually slight. They further suggested that when the SST is maintained above the threshold convection is determined by the low level convergence. Thus above the threshold the SST is no longer the limiting resource for convection, but dynamics can be and this is a very important point to remember because it is important to bear this observed lack of relationship between rainfall and SST when the latter is always above the threshold and the correlation coefficients between rainfall and SST should not be used when comparing with the results of atmospheric and climate models with observations. Unfortunately, meteorologists have done that and come to wrong conclusions. Now, let us see what are the implications of this SST convection relationship and what we can see here this is the rainfall pattern here and you can see higher rain means from green to red basically. This is the SST and SST coloring is such that this is above 27.5 their shades of yellow. And what you can see very nicely you look at this region this is June, July, August and look at this region and you find most of the region the SST is below the threshold and you get hardly any rain here. This is June, July I am sorry this is this is December, January, February I am sorry and in December, January, February you would have expected that in the southern hemisphere you should get a tropical convergence on, but southern hemisphere is extremely cold and there is no such TCC. In fact, there is a little bit of warm water here and little bit of rain to the north, but you can see that SST being below the threshold has completely suppressed you know the possibility of having a TCC over the southern hemisphere in equatorial is specific. Now, we go to the summer and summer thing should be in the north and they are, but you see here this is our Arabian say this is Madagascar region and you can see that there is no rain here at all and that is the region which coincides with all the blues in SST. So, SST is so cold here this is because of the upwelling that you cannot have rainfall in this region. So, this implication of the relationships we have talked about are these that when SST is below the threshold you cannot have organized convection. Now, the implications also are there for variability of convection and that is the most important thing because we began with saying what is the variability, how is the variability of convection related to SST and what we find is that in fact this is the central pacific I am sorry this is the central pacific and in the central pacific now what you can see here is this is the SST and this is the rainfall here and you can see whenever SST is larger than about 27.5 or 28 these are these big red things here and that is when you get rain events. So, there is a one to one correspondence between the SST and rain here because SST is varying across the threshold you know it may be above it may be below, but it is varying across the threshold you take on the other end Indian Ocean equatorial Indian Ocean where SST is perpetually above and in that case there is hardly any relationship between rainfall and SST. So, this relationship between SST and convection is a very interesting relationship and it has very important implications for our understanding of the variation of organized convection over tropical oceans and eventually thereby of our understanding of monsoon variability and its links to variation of convection over tropical oceans. Thank you.


Hello, and welcome to this presentation of the STM Extended Interrupts and Events Controller. We will be presenting the features of the EXTI. The EXTI controller provides up to 41 independent lines, split into two categories, configurable lines, and direct lines. The applications could benefit through smarter use of low power modes, taking advantage of the capability to wake up the external communication or requests. The EXTI controller provides interrupt and event generation, as well as the capability to wake up the processor from stop modes. Configurable lines allow the user to select which active edge generates interrupts or events with a dedicated status flag for each line. Requests on configurable lines can also be generated by software. Configurable lines are linked with external interrupts from GPIO, comparators, PVD, RTC, and PVM. These lines can wake up the processor from both stop zero, stop one, and stop two modes. Direct lines provide less configuration options, with status flags provided by related peripherals. They are linked mainly with LCD and communication peripherals. Direct lines can only wake up the processor from stop zero, stop one mode, except those coming from I2C3, LPTIM1, and LPUART1. As mentioned on the previous slide, configurable lines can act as a wake-up source from both stop zero, stop one, and stop two modes. They provide the capability to wake up from a GPIO rising or falling edge, programmable voltage detector, RTC, comparators, and peripheral voltage monitor. Direct lines can only act as a wake-up source from stop zero, stop one mode, except I2C3, LPUART1, and LPUTIM1, which can serve as a wake-up source from stop two mode as well.


When I first started thinking of Mission 3, I wanted more from the character in the story. You know, we talked about bringing the team together and having that whole, you know, field picture and wanting it to have a romantic quality but a toughness and have it be a love story. I got this phone call and it was my agent and he said, are you aware of the discussions about you directing Mission Impossible 3? I said, what? I was working on Mission Impossible and I was up about two in the morning one night and I just, I'm going to watch Alias. I just started watching Alias. It was blown away by what he accomplished. His sense of timing, suspense. I thought, you know what? I want JJ Abrams to direct the movie. So in 2006, the Mission Impossible franchise continued with their third installment and once again with a different director at the helm. And I made it no secret in the previous review that I felt John Woo was an horrendously miscached choice for the second movie. So I'm definitely not complaining they once again went with someone else. JJ Abrams nowadays of course is probably best known for directing and producing the latest Star Wars trilogy as well as producing Star Trek Beyond. But I guess I knew his name best as being the producer of 2008's Cloverfield. Frilling movie. Two years before all that though, he got his directorial debut right here in the movie we're looking at today. Mission Impossible 3. I remember vividly that the years between Mission Impossible 2 and 3 were the years I started to warm to Tom Cruise a lot more. I think a lot of that had to do with his amazing performance in 2004's Collateral directed by Michael Mann. Cruise portrayed a villain here for once. The insanely badass yet likeable, clever assassin Vincent.  It's still one of my all time favorite performances that he did much like the movie itself, which aids like a fine wine. It was a huge contrast to the snarky long haired playboy type Ethan Hunt that was way too full of himself that he portrayed in Mission Impossible 2. We've put an explosive charge in your head. Does that sound familiar? All of that is gone as is immediately present in the more gritty and serious tone the movie sets up right from the get go in one of the most intriguing openings to start a film with. We jump right into a flash forward. Ethan is strapped to a chair with the villain holding a chick who's clearly important to him at gunpoint while counting the ten. Philip Seamer Hoffman plays the villain and we instantly realize that this guy won't be messing around in this movie. It's very suspenseful. Cruise and Hoffman are very good in this. We have no clue yet how Ethan ended up here, who the woman is in relation to Ethan, what the villain is talking about, but it's the perfect way to set up intrigue and immediately get you invested in the movie in a very powerful way. But we do learn we will once again be dealing with a McGuffin in this movie. The first Mission Impossible movie had the knock list. The second had Chimera and Beleraphon.  Gotta love running a YouTube channel. Love you guys. So this time we're dealing with the rabbit's foot as a plot device. It holds no significance to us, but we do know the bad guy is after it. No. Done. Just like that we're launched into the third Mission Impossible. No more crazy Limbisket Metal Mission Impossible theme, no overly-flashy slow motion shots, but to return to the classic Mission Impossible theme and playing brilliant filmmaking. Honestly, this four-minute opening alone is more compelling and able to put you on the edge of your seat and hold your attention than pretty much the entirety of Mission Impossible 2 was ever able to do. We're off to a good start. So at the start of the movie we see that Ethan is living together with the woman who will end up getting that gun to her head later on. The love of his life, Julia, played by Michelle Monaghan. Immediately I wonder what happened to Naya, who Ethan seemed pretty in love with in the previous movie as well, with them setting off romantically in the sunset together. Actually, let me check. Why didn't Naya return in Mission Impossible 3? Hmm. So apparently Fandy Newton said that she won't return to film Mission Impossible 3 in order to focus on her family. Had she returned in the third film, she would be a highly-trained agent of the IMF and part of the team in 2006. Huh. Such a shame that that didn't happen though. She's definitely one of the only highlights to Mission Impossible 2. Oh well, Julia and Ethan are having an engagement party. It's clear that these two love each other and are having a relatively normal life. I also liked this moment, showcasing the common perception of Tom Cruise to men and women very accurately. His traffic has a memory. It's amazing. It's like a living organism. Fresh enough for you? Was it Baca Martina? Yeah. I'd marry him. Anyway, so Ethan is a retired IMF agent at the start of this movie. He's now only training recruits to become actual agents. Julia does not know this about him, which I guess is another reason they didn't bring back Naya as the love of his life because she does know about Ethan's real life. In retrospect, it seems kind of odd that Ethan is already retired in this movie. You know, knowing that there are a lot more Mission Impossible movies that came out after this, but at the time it had been 10 years since the first Mission Impossible movie after all. It's not that weird to be retired. But besides being a former IMF agent, there doesn't seem to be any connection or continuity to the previous two movies again. It's a completely different story. You could just hop in in Part 3 and not miss anything. Despite being retired, the IMF makes it no secret that they desperately want Ethan back in the field and tried to bring him in on a mission to rescue one of Ethan's protochets, Lindsay, who was captured. Ethan initially refuses, but does get tantalized to at the very least listen to the mission briefing anyway hidden in a camera that the IMF guy Musgrave left behind for him. We learn that Lindsay was investigating our main villain played by Philip Seymour Hoffman that we saw in the flash-forward opening that the movie is leading up to. We learn that his name is Owen Davion, an extremely dangerous black market arms dealer. An IMF team is already assembled for the rescue mission. A guy named Declan, an Asian agent Zen Lee who I guess is the replacement to what would have been Nia's role and good ol' Lufer once again returning. So the rescue mission takes place in Berlin. Ethan just tells his fiance he needs to go to Houston for a night or something. The mission itself is pretty classic Mission Impossible. Lots of high-tech equipment, Lufer guiding Ethan through the field while disapproving of Ethan getting a fiance, and plenty of explosions. Oh and as a Bond fan, Zen Lee also totally reminds me of Wei Lin in that outfit with the same gun and stuff. Very similar. So Ethan manages to retrieve Lindsay, who apparently is suffering from a huge headache because of a micro-explosive charge planted in her head. Does that sound familiar? Something we know will happen to Ethan later on as foreshadowed in the flash-forward opening. So Ethan tries to save her with a defibrillator all while being in the middle of a helicopter chase with rockets being fired at them in a huge windmill park. It's a very thrilling action scene. The bad guys end up crashing into one of the windmills though for no real reason. Why not just fly over or under the windmills? Anyway, just before Ethan is able to zap Lindsay, her charge gets activated and she immediately turns into an unsettling lifeless face. So despite being able to save her, the team efforts were kind of for nothing. He gets directly scolded for that by his IMF superior played fiercely by Lawrence Fishburne. Wait, wasn't that guy played by Anthony Hopkins, Ethan's superior? Oh no, wait, Hopkins was the IMF commander. Fishburne placed the IMF director. Totally different. Wait a minute, wasn't Kid Rich the IMF director? Guess he got replaced. So it's clear that Lindsay was important to Ethan as he attends her funeral and gets flashbacks of training her and stuff. She left him a micro-dot on a postcard containing a secret message which Luthor and Ethan can't decode yet. We're also introduced to the IMF tech guy, Benji, played by Simon Beck who is a wonderful comic relief to the film. I used to have this professor at Oxford, okay, Dr. Wickham.  We used to call him, you know, but I won't tell you we used to call him. He taught biomolecular kinetics. Benji would rightfully go on to be part of the main characters in future installments and get much more screen time. Through one of the broken laptops or three from the rescue mission in Germany, Benji discovered that Davion is going to be at the Vatican. In talks for, there's our regoven, the rabbit's foot. So Ethan being Ethan wants to go after Davion at the Vatican. Before that happens though, Ethan and Julia share an emotional moment in which Ethan tells her again that he needs to leave for a few days, unable to reveal his IMF background to her, causing a lot of confusion between the two. The pair is really good. The vulnerability somehow grounds Ethan much more in reality than in any of the smug overly confident portrayals of the past films, which makes his character more three-dimensional and likeable. The pair end up having an impromptu wedding at the hospital before Ethan leaves. It's very different to anything we've seen before in the series. Quite emotional. Of course it's followed by some mandatory honeymoon hospital banging as you do. In more classic Mission Impossible style though, the team's mission is set up to be impossible, breaking into the heavily secured Vatican to kidnap Davion, without Davion's buyers finding out that he is kidnapped. How does the team start this impossible job? Well, by having an Italian argument in the middle of the streets of Rome, of course. I'm tired of this. I'm tired of this. I'm tired of this. I'm tired of this. I'm tired of this. I'm tired of this. With that diversion set in place, Ethan quickly disables the camera and sneaks over the Vatican's wall. And at this point it really seems to have become mandatory to have Tom Cruise hang an inch above the ground in each of these films. Almost in Bond fashion, he disposes of his career outfit to reveal completely different clothes in the form of a priest. It's pretty fun. What follows is typical Mission Impossible stuff though. A team of professionals executing a plan, placing tracers hacking into computers, disabling security cameras, putting on multiple disguises. It's all a joy to watch. Zen Lee also gets a moment to shine, driving a Lamborghini posing as a rich chick in a glamorous dress. She looks good. She gets to take pictures of their target Davion so they can create a mask of his face. It's the first time in the film series we actually get to see how they create these signature masks. Cruise gets to put on a Philip Seymour Hoffman costume basically and gains like 20 kilos in a single shot. Using a Davion mask, Ethan surprises the real Davion, forces him to read a card to collect his voice data and triangleizes him. There's a tiny moment of a translator translating between Ethan in the Davion costume, flirting with Zen Lee, which seems like a seemingly uninteresting moment, but it comes back later. Through some Mission Impossible-ness, they manage to kidnap the real Davion through the sewers while Ethan and Zen Lee make their way out of the Lamborghini undetected, blowing the beautiful car up, making it seem Davion was killed and escaping in a stylish way on a boat in Rome, which I think was the first shot they filmed for the movie by the way. This whole Vatican sequence is a lot of fun, filled with a good combination of humor between the characters as well as suspense that keeps you locked to the screen. What follows is one of the most memorable sequences in this movie, Ethan questioning Davion in the airplane and Davion just completely ignoring the questions and having none of it. Hoffman is really good in this and to me probably is the best and most memorable villain this franchise ever saw. He's very unsettlingly at ease, telling Ethan he will track his wife down and hurt her, which we know from the foreshadowed opening will happen. At the moment Ethan snaps with Davion getting under his skin is really something else compared to the cool and in control Ethan we saw so far in the previous films. He's much more a flawed and interesting character in this movie. Even with Davion hanging out of the airplane he's not having any of it and we learn nothing about the rabbit's foot. All it does is louver shouting Ethan's name, which we as the audience already know is a mistake that's going to come back and bite him later. What we're selling to is the last thing you should be concerned about, Ethan. Back in the US we get a sequence that immediately reminded me of License to Kill. Even the first time I saw this movie, Davion is in custody and from the location alone and the similarity with San Jazz's custody escape on a very similar location, I was totally expecting Davion here to be rescued out of custody in the same fashion. How do we get to that though? Remember Lindsay's micro dot that they couldn't decode earlier on? Well, they manage to do it now and we learn that Davion is supposedly in cahoots with Ethan's new IMF superior played by Laurence Fishburne. It's quite a shocking interesting twist that we don't have time to think about. Instead of the secured fan being bumped into the water extracting the villain like in License to Kill they do it differently with half of the bridge being blown up with a high-speed drone firing rockets assisted by a helicopter with a group of mercenaries. This also has one of the signature stunts of the film with Ethan flying into the car because of the explosion. It's pretty cool. It's a lot better than the jump across the hole in the bridge which seems really inconsistent to me. In one shot the gap looks like it could be a couple of car lengths long and in the next Ethan seems to have jumped over a tiny gap. Overall though, it's another exhilarating sequence.  Ethan realizes his wife is in big trouble so even quickly rushes over to her work at the hospital desperately trying to prevent Julia from being kidnapped. Again, this is why the foreshadowing opening works so well. The movie is slowly leading up to that moment. We all know that it's coming. You have 48 hours starting at my mark. Call me at this number when you have it. Just wait. Julia's life for the rest of it. You have 48 hours where she dies. Wait! It's all catching up to him. And to make things worse, the IMF brings Ethan in. Not that we learned that Davion is in cahoots with Laurence Fispern. They keep Ethan in custody which isn't exactly helpful within that 48 hours he has left to get the rabbit's foot to save his wife's life and he doesn't even know what it is yet. But then Fispern's assistant must grave mouse to Ethan where he needs to go. Luckily, Ethan is an expert lib reader something we cleverly saw foreshadowed at the engagement party at the start of the film. Of course, Ethan makes a clever escape impersonating Fispern's voice which he's really good at. A couple of scenes ago he was desperately waiting for Davion's voice to get uploaded and now he's just impersonating the IMF director's voice with ease without a voice-altering device. Kinda weird. The escape is pretty amusing though. So Ethan proceeds to Shanghai to try and steal the rabbit's foot to save his wife's life. Fortunately, his crew is there to help. Ethan does some quick elaborate planning for a signature impossible scheme and before we know it, Cruz is doing more ridiculous stunts by himself as he does and makes his way onto the correct building. The heists are always a signature part of the Mission Impossible films. This time however, the filmmakers make the choice not to show the actual heist inside of the building itself which I guess you could claim is disappointing but then again, I think it's because they want to leave it to the imagination as to what the rabbit's foot is. You see, it's a McGovern and it doesn't really matter in terms of the story. We just know that it's important and that Ethan has to go get it to save the life of his wife. It keeps the pace of the movie going too and it's not like we're not getting any action. Besides, we've also had a heist like scene already at the Vatican. So instead, we just get Ethan crashing out through a window with the rabbit's foot and another car chase escape to the security of the building. Eventually, he gets to the meeting point and finally, after one hour and 36 minutes we're back at the foreshadowed moment the movie started with. No. Ten. No! And just like that, Julia gets killed right before his eyes. Or so he thinks, it's actually Davion's translator from back at the Vatican and Musgrave turns out to be the real guy in Cahoots with Davion, not Fitzburn's character. So Julia is in fact still alive but is being taken hostage at another location. Ethan makes an escape and calls the tech guy, Benji, to lead him to the last made call on Musgrave's phone so that he can be led to her location. We get some nice comic relief from Benji again which in retrospect kind of feels like the origins of the fun and more prominent character he is to become in the future installments. So Cruz gets to do some signature running in another memorable moment of the film as he sprints three quarters of a mile pretty much in one take. I guess it's alright, I mean it's just Cruz running. A lot. You can't really question his stamina though but it's filmed in a pretty interesting way. Had this been John Woo returning to direct again though, I bet the sequence would have looked a lot more like this. Thank heavens it's not like that. So Ethan reaches Julia in the building but just as he gets to her the explosive charge planted in his head is activated and as we know from Lindsay in the beginning of the film that does not end well. Davion shows up again being his usual creepy self. Again, Hoffman is just superb in this role. I honestly think he would have made a great bond villain as well. And Ethan is left helpless because of the charge. Cruz and Hoffman just really sell it all. The fighting ends with Davion meaning his doom to an unsuspecting car at the road.   It all comes to a dramatic end with Julia killing Musgrave in her panic who has the rabbit's foot. Cue in a pretty emotional moment of Julia desperately trying to bring her husband back to life. Come on baby, I need you to come back. It's a well executed and emotional ending. So now Ethan is finally able to let his wife know about his true identity. And the rabbit's foot? Well... Hey, one thing. The rabbit's foot. What is it? Promise me you'll stay, I'll tell you. Again, it's just meant to remain nothing. Your own imagination. A plot device used well to tell a cool action packed love story. As we get Ethan and Julia, who now met the IMF team to leave onto their honeymoon as the movie comes to an end. So, Mission Impossible 3. In my opinion a huge step up from the previous movie and in my opinion the strongest one out of the original trilogy. The first one was a very decent action packed spy thriller. The second one an out of place over the top disappointment. And this one really started to hit the nail in the head and form the franchise into what it was going to become. JJ Abrams gelled much better with the series than John Woo did and although new directors would once again come aboard later on he would end up taking on the role of producer in the future installments of the series alongside Tom Cruise. And you know how Goldfinger started to form a blueprint of what was to become the cinematic Bond series? Here this third installment kinda does that in a similar way. A likable team of IMF agents performing the signature heists. Action packed scenes flowing nicely one after the other. It takes you on a super fast and thrilling ride and doesn't let you go. This is what makes Mission Impossible so fun. If it's done right and Cruise truly found out what works for the character of Ethan Hunt in this film. Because he's no longer a self-important cardboard playboy character and he's a very capable, courageous, secret agent that would stop at nothing to get to his goal. Save others and do the literal impossible. And it's the vulnerability that really makes it all so compelling to watch. Pair that up with the best Mission Impossible villain the series ever saw and you get a really entertaining film with essentially a very simple yet effective and interesting story. As always I like to compare it to the Bond movie of the time which would be Casino Royale which came out in the same year. And you can definitely see a trend making characters more vulnerable and three-dimensional and well human with actual emotions. Making the action scenes more realistic and the fighting a lot grittier. There was definitely a switch going on in these types of movies and perhaps the poor movies might have inspired both of these films in those aspects looking at it in retrospect. I wouldn't say Mission Impossible 3 would beat Casino Royale because well as a Bond fan that one is just something special. But there are very little flaws with Mission Impossible 3 to be honest. It planted the seeds for a formula that seemed to work so that they could potentially benefit from the fruits in the future so that they could perfect it even more. For example the IMF team. Zen Lee was alright and had the potential but didn't have that much of a prominent role. The same holds for Benji in this movie as well as the other team member Declan who honestly was a bit of a forgettable ally I barely mentioned in this review. I mean sure he's there and he gets a little moment talking about Zen Lee's cat in the car in Shanghai but he's forgotten as soon as the credits roll. The same holds for the lack of one major prominent set piece action scene that you immediately think of when you think Mission Impossible 3. Sure you get the explosion on the bridge the jump from the building in Shanghai the running sequence at the river. I don't know but I think it's missing that one prominent thing like the CIA heist scene in the first movie. It's permanently embedded in your memory when you think of that film. Out of the original trilogy though without a doubt I recommend this one the most because it's an action packed thrilling film that grabs your attention right from the get go doesn't let you go for the entire ride. JJ Abrams managed to give the Mission Impossible series an identity of its own and the formula was now left with huge potential for future installments.


With everything that's going on around the world, is wine really even that important anyway? Why or why not? That's what we're going to talk about in this video. Hello, hello, hello. Welcome back to Exotic Wine Travel. I am your host, Matthew Horkey. I'm coming to you, I guess, quasi-live from Zagreb Croatia where we're kind of locked down amongst this whole COVID-19 crisis. So I thought about starting a special weekly series called COVID-19 Lockdown where I share some thoughts about wine and I want to get your input and your thoughts too. So make sure to leave a comment, dialogue. We can have a dialogue in the comment section below. So the first question I'm going to pose, you know, amongst all this, I'm on Facebook. Obviously what we do with the Exotic Wine Travel has a lot to do with social media and a lot of my friends who are wine writers they say that they feel even guilty writing about wine during these times. Myself included, I'm putting out a lot of content. Shireen and I and I thought, is wine actually really that important? So that's one of the questions we're going to pose today. So there's a couple ways to look at it. Is wine really that important? It depends on who you're asking and where you're coming from. You know, I have some friends, I have a good friend that doesn't drink any alcohol, zero. Doesn't drink beer, wine, spirits, nothing.  Do you just spit it out or do you drink it all? So to some people, to a lot of people, wine really isn't that important. It's not important at all. Then you have some people that really don't care what they're drinking. They just want to drink alcohol for the hedonistic pleasure, be it they can drink beer, they can drink share or they can drink spirits, whatever. And then on the other side of the spectrum, you have hardcore wine geeks, wine people, wine consumers. Myself included is wine important. Yes, I really enjoy drinking wine with food. So it is important. But is it truly a necessity for me? No, it's not. I could live without it. I'll tell you, one group of people who are wine is incredibly important. And that's small producers that make wine that depend on the sales of wine for their income, for them to be able to put food on the table for their families. And this is something that hits home for me. And I'll give you an example. My family back home owns a large farm in southeastern Michigan. Did I get that right? Yeah, southeastern Michigan. If you're Europeans around 1000 hectares to 2500 acres, it's all produce. And I remember in 1988, when I was a kid, we had a humongous drought through the Midwest. And it lasted, it was so long, it lasted into 2009 even. And in that part of Michigan, you have a lot of people that are maybe just farming, just for a hobby, just because they have a piece of land. But for us, it was a livelihood. And I remember how incredibly difficult that time was. My mom was really incredible taking care of all of us, trying to keep us calm. Well, my father actually had to get another job.  So he did do that just to get us through those hard times just so we have something to eat. So the same as with these small producers in Europe, especially, we have a couple producers here from Hungary, from Croatia, some of them are only, only have maybe five to 12 hectares, making only maybe 40 to 60,000 bottles per year. So wine is definitely important. So one thing that I would suggest for you is to support some of these local producers, some of these local businesses that depend on it. We ordered some small production wine from Hungary here from our friends at Taste Hungary. They were also hit hard by all of this. They are a tourism and a wine shop, wine tasting company. All the tours got canceled through the year. I ordered, I ordered just a small amount just to just to show some support. We have the Hangavari, Tokai Summer Dry, Summer Only, something I really like, the Vita Big Ever, Bull's Blood, which is fantastic. In Croatia here, we have a bigger company, but just depends on wine for income, Ferovino, and then Ante Sladic, a beautiful small producer in Dalmatia, Croatia. So during this time, you see what people really want. There's a lot of movement in the cheaper wines in the US sub $20 range. It's because during these times, people are uncertain, unfrightened, what's going to happen.  They want something that they can open enjoy tonight. And there's a lot of stuff that you can find in the US under $20, but in Europe, even under the 10-year-old range, I mean this, this big of a rules in the 10-year-old, the Sladic Marashtina 10-year-old, the Saray, I think, 11-year-old, the same around here. And these are very enjoyable wines. And another reason to support these small producers and show why wine is important. I think the real power of wine is a whole bottle of wine keeps your friends, your families, your loved ones at the table longer. So during this time, I know a lot of people have a lot of free time. It's a great chance to get off social media, sit down with your family, your friends. And I'm sure you and I have been sitting down enjoying a bottle of wine. I've been trying to cook. I'm a terrible cook, but right behind me is this big pot of soup because it's the one dish that I made.  So in other words, wine is important. Wine is important for us because that's how also we make our living. So this different perspective for you guys to have. Let me know what you think is why important to you. Could you care less? What are you doing? What are you drinking during these times? Put it in the comment section below. And I love to hear from you. If you like this channel, please subscribe to our YouTube channel, Exotic Wine Travel. I will see you at the next episode.


Good evening everyone and welcome. My name is Melissa Armone and I own a company called The Stock Swoosh and I'm doing an upcoming webinar on trade gaps for a living. I actually trade gaps in the U.S. stock market for a living. And again I own a company where I teach people my one method, the only strategy I trade which is on gaps. If you'd like more information you can email me at Melissa at thestockswoosh.com or go to Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, LinkedIn, Pinterest or Skype and follow me at any one of those places. The webinar will be in Monday, January 4th, the very first trading day of the calendar year 2016. I think there's some special meeting to that. It's a good luck charm for me and I'll be doing the webinar at 4.30 Eastern time. Just click on this link right here. You can go and sign up for the registration. It is free, 100% free. So if you're thinking you can't make a living day trading I would ask yourself why. Here's a copy of my P&L from this is like somewhere like I think it was like the first or second week in December. I made like $6,100 almost $6,200 just trading in one day. Some people don't even make that in a month. So obviously you can trade and make this kind of money for a living because it is possible. You just have to have one specific system to do it. So trade for a living in the market. Make money daily in the market and make $100,000 a year day trading or more. What am I going to talk about in the lecture? I'm going to talk about learning how to trade gaps for a living. I'm going to talk about learning how to day trade for a living and not only that making $100,000 a year trading only 30 minutes a day because I'm not in these trades long. I'm in and I'm out very, very quickly. You've got to get a plan of action for 2016. If you do not have a plan of action for 2016, you need one. Why? If you want to be successful, it is not about throwing darts at a board. If you trade like that, then your results will probably reflect that immediately. It is about having the following. Number one, a specific plan of action. Number two, a system you use daily over and over and over and over again to trade. Number three, a monetary goal you want to make each day and each week and each month. Number four, a reason you are taking each trade you take. It rates 20 points or more for the 26-point rating system. You see a good risk to reward. You've got the market with you. Whatever. You've got to have a reason before you enter the trade. Number five, a target or placement for when you will get out because you have to know that it's very important. So learn how to make money day trading gaps. Again, this is the only strategy I trade and it's the only thing I teach because it's the only thing that I do. Learn how to make money trading gaps for a living. I use one system to day trade and I'm mainly short stocks. Why? Kind of comes into stocks very quickly and you can take a trade and quickly get out in five minutes, 10 minutes or 15 minutes each day and you don't need to consider yourself with the overall market direction daily or in the long term. Why? When you short a stock, you are betting. Okay, I have it in quotations because it's almost like you're betting. You are betting. You're betting and will go down in the price of the day, but you have to have a calculated risk and a specific reason for betting that it will. You are predicting that the stock will sell off on the day and then the sell-off comes in immediately into stocks in the first part of the day into the open, which is between 9.30 and 10 a.m. Eastern time. You have to know what stock to watch, when to take it and where and when to get out. I do this myself and make money and I am teaching people to do this as well. So come and learn more. I'm doing this live lecture on January 4th. It's time to manifest your truest desires for 2016. In fact, I'm having a New Year's Eve party and the theme of the party is manifesting your desires for 2016. You've got to learn how to make money trading gaps in the US stock market this year. My desire for you is to be successful. I know that you can be successful.  You've got to learn how to make money fast and empower yourself today. I teach you classes called the Golden Gap Course. It is a complete system to use to trade. And the next class will be January 9th and 10th. It is a full two-day course on how to strategically find, pick, and play stocks at our professional bearish gaps. Retakes are free. The class is online. It is 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Eastern time. The class of the class is $39.99. You can email me at Melissa at thestockswish.com if you would like to sign up. Everyone who takes the class, the first class in January of 2016 will receive the wealth manifestation class for free. And again, this is an amazing class which talks about trading psychology. And you're basically getting two classes for the price of one. Remember the future in your life is yours to create. So come to the webinar Monday, January 4. Start off the new year with your trading, right? Happy New Year, everyone. Come to the webinar, register for free. It's 4.30 Eastern time. Thank you so much and have a fabulous, healthy, and happy New Year's Eve.


Hey guys, what is up? Welcome to my channel. For today's video, I'm going to be doing my December favorites.  So after the next few videos, we're gonna go back to the old backgrounds to just be prepared for that. But let me tell ya, December felt like a lifetime to me. I uploaded pretty much every day of December minus Christmas, and then the last two days I kind of was like, all right, I gotta take a break before the new year. But I pretty much uploaded every single day in December. Jose's parents came for a full seven days. I couldn't even really keep track of what makeup I was trying, but I was really also only testing a lot of older products because we were doing a lot of roundup videos and very theme-specific videos. So I didn't get to really venture off and try products on the side. But you know, I still came together with a list of the beauty products that I've been obsessed with in December, just products that I find I really keep grabbing for in between videos. And if it's not in the video, I'm still using it on this side. So let's get into it. We'll start off with complexion. I don't have too much complexion. I've just been kind of working my way through my foundation and concealer collection, just using a new one just to make my rounds. But a setting powder that I've been consistently reaching for is the Makeup Forever Ultra HD setting powder. This is such a beautiful setting powder, you guys. It just makes the skin look really, really smooth and does set the makeup in all day. I just feel like my skin looks better when I wear this. So I picked this up during the most recent Sephora VIV sale and there's something about it that's just a great solid setting powder. It does everything I wanted to do. It doesn't leave a white cast. It leaves the skin looking soft. It blurs the pores, it blurs the skin and it lasts a really long time. Like it's just a solid setting powder. I feel like it's a little bit of a heavier powder. It's not going to like fly up into the air like some powders because it really packs in and holds the oils. So if you have oily skin, I also think you would really, really like this. So this has just been an all-around great setting powder. I've been absolutely loving using it. Compared to lighter powders, sometimes with lighter powders, I like to go in with a sponge and press the powder in. I feel like I get a similar look with this when I just use a brush because there's something about the way that it packs onto the skin that really is so perfecting. So I've been loving this, highly recommend it. The next product is a very, very new product to me. I only tried it a few days ago, but I just need to let you know I've been using it every day since and I'm obsessed. It is the Rare Beauty Bronzer Stick, particularly in the shade Happy Soul. I did a whole review. I'm still playing with the powder so I can't give you my final thoughts on that one yet. I'm still kind of figuring it out. But I reviewed this shade and another shade of the bronzer stick. If you're around my complexion, Happy Soul is perfect. Now this is a true bronzer stick. It's not going to be a contour stick. So it leans a little bit more warm, but this is such a malleable product.  There's so much versatility. If you like to use a brush, a sponge, your fingers, it's going to blend out beautifully no matter what. It does not disrupt the product underneath. It gives such a beautiful warmth to the skin. Now once we get towards the deeper tones, I did see that they run a little bit more on the red side. So just be wary of that and just go in knowing it's not going to be a true contour stick. But the formulation on this blends out so easily and it lasts a really long time. It works great without products on top like powder, but it also works great if you put a powder over top. This is a solid, solid bronzer stick. I think a lot of you guys are going to like it. Rare Beauty did a fabulous job with this. This next product is an older product, but I found I've been using it a lot at first. I didn't love it.  It's a bit too harsh, but lately to touch up, finish off, redefine my face, I've been loving the Wayne Goss Radiance boosting face palette. So I have the shade Satin Bronze and honestly, when I first used this, those first few months that I had it, I wasn't crazy about it. This shade right here, the medium taupe, really is quite harsh. It's very, very deep, but this is going to be the cooler color. And I really only felt comfortable going into the bronzer color and even then I was like, oh, it's a bit heavy. I struggle with this when I'm going in with a big brush and buffing it out, but I've really been loving it for touch ups or specific contouring areas. So this is never really the main color or product that I'm using to bronze and sculpt, but I use it to finish off the look. Like I would probably put a very light touch with my brush in this and just sweep it over my cream bronzer just to give it a little extra glowiness, but to also set it down. For today, what I did because the Rare Beauty is so warm, I took the tiniest little bit of the contour shade and just put it right in the hollows of my cheek to really define and sculpt that area. So I found my use for this and I've been loving it for those added extra areas of definition that I need. Not a big fan of using this on its own, but it's been very, very useful in that sense this month. Next product that we have is a blush that I've been loving. This is from Milani. It is their Cheek Kiss Powder Blush Palette. The other two shades are fine. The shade I don't use too much because it's too deep for me. The pink is really pretty though, but it's this blush right here, the orange one that I'm talking about. I don't like warm blushes too often, but there really is something special about this. When I have it on my cheek today, it looks really soft on the skin and has a very subtle golden glow to it. It lasts a really long time, which is what I was worried about because sometimes drugstore blushes, the downfall of them is the longevity. Don't have an issue with this. It reminds me a lot of the Pat McGrath Desert Orchid, which is my favorite warm blush of all time. This is a little bit brighter, whereas Desert Orchid is definitely more warm and a little bit more deep, so they aren't dupes for one another, but they're both the only two warm blushes that I really, really love. So I've been loving this orange blush. It blends out super easily and the best part is that it's affordable. I think Milani did a fabulous job for this. It's been so easy for me to reach for it. I think besides loving the color, the other reason why I love it is because it blends out on the cheek. I don't need to spend any time buffing and blending with this. Beautiful, super easy to use. Kudos to you, Milani. I discovered two eyebrow pencils that I really, really love. So the first one is from Floresis. Oh my goodness. I just find I really love Asian eyebrow products because they just get me. There's something about the consistency of their pencils that I really love because they don't go the creamier route with them. They go the more waxy route and I think that just gives me so much more control with drawing my brows. But you still don't have to press too hard to get the color. It's just perfect. It's a nice cool color. I feel like more of a waxy, yet it still is quite pigmented brow pencil. I think you will really like this one and then can we just talk about the packaging? It is absolutely stunning. I've been loving this one. It's very, very precise as well. When I'm looking for something a little bit more quick and dirty, I found an eyebrow product from the drugstore that is that waxy consistency that I prefer. This is the Maybelline Total Temptation Eyebrow Pencil. So this has been out for a while, but I recently discovered it. It's the one that has this weird rounded split which I'm not necessarily too partial to, but you know, it works. It gets the job done. You can brush your eyebrows out. It works good. The pencil itself is a little bit thicker than what I'm used to, but I've been liking this for quick and dirty brows just to quickly fill in.  So for quick and dirty eyebrows, I've been loving this one from Maybelline. Getting into eyeshadow palettes. I have one single eyeshadow that I wanted to share with you. I wore this on New Year's Eve and it was so stunning. I don't reach for this eyeshadow formula enough, but the Mac Dazzle Shadow in the shade I like to watch. So I used the Nars Climax Eyeshadow Palette as the base for my look, but I wanted a little something more vavavum, you know, for the time of year. I wanted some glitter. So I grabbed this and I just popped it on my lid and it completely finished the look. And I just was reminded how amazing this formula is. The way that it glimmers, it's not too distracting, but when the light hits, you're like, oh, that is absolutely stunning. It has a slight kind of plummy shift to it, which is really unique, but I love that the glitters don't make a mess on your face. You don't need to put a glitter glue or anything underneath. I still didn't get glitter fallout, but it just is the finishing touch to a look if you want the glimmer. And I've been loving Glimmerd you will see this month just because of the time of year. So this shadow really came in and saved the day. Love it, had to point it out to you guys. The next eyeshadow palette that I have that I discovered this month is the Florisis Oriental Shine Makeup Palette. I believe at this point, the sponsored video that I did for it should be up, but I was super duper in love and I just wanted to reiterate just because it was a sponsored video didn't mean that my reaction wasn't genuine. It really, really was. This palette is absolutely gorgeous. Now for today's look, I stuck with mostly the matte and the matte in here, they are fine. They're very easy to work with. They are buildable. I find them to be very beginner friendly. They're not going to give you bang packed pigment but they're going to be very easy to work with. But the shimmers here were just so pretty. It's very, very, very fine sparkles. And I just loved the looks that I've created with this palette thus far. It's very easy to use. This is by far my favorite palette Florisis has come out with the packaging is absolutely divine. And the color story, it's not unique but it's really inspiring to me. It's within the tones of looks that I love to create. I definitely recommend you check out that video where I featured this to see the look that I created because it was gorgeous and I love this palette. The only flaw to it is just that the best colors I feel like are too small. I need them in bigger forms. The last eyeshadow palette that I tried this month that I wanted to share with you in my favorites is the Tom Ford Lava Luster Quad. Ooh, I'm so excited about this. I've been not sure about Tom Ford. They really didn't have any bangers this year, honestly. They weren't like kind of wah-wah-wah this year but they finished off with this. So this is a brand new formula from Tom Ford. It's a glimmery, glittery kind of formula. On my eyelid, I'm wearing these three shades right here and I've been loving the glitters this month. So this isn't a Pat McGrath labs kind of glitter look. The Pat McGrath labs will kind of put this to shame if I'm being honest, but it's the best glimmer formula that we have from Tom Ford and it is so stunning. It's a step up from the glitter that you're gonna get in the fluorescence, but it's a step down from Pat McGrath. But I like this because I get little to no fallout with this. Again, I don't need a glitter glue and I just really love the way that these look. This is a great glimmery kind of formula. Tom Ford has never come out with anything like this and I am so ecstatic. And part of the reason why I probably love it so much is I'm sitting in front of my studio lights and I'm like, wow, so pretty, but it does look pretty in everyday life as well, but I've been really excited about this palette. We finally got another banger from Tom Ford this year and I've kind of pushed you away from most of his quads that he's come out with just because they haven't been very good, but this is one that I'm really, really excited about. I want this formula in a lot of other colors, not just warm shades. So hopefully we can get like a cooler version of this keeping this quality consistent to what we have in this quad because it's great. I actually spent a lot of time this month testing Rem or R-E-M Beauty, which is Ariana Grande's makeup line, not even because I was excited about it, but the package came the week that Jose's parents came and so I didn't even want to think too hard about the makeup that I was using. So I had the whole collection laying out on my desk so I used it like everyday so I got really well versed in the Rem Beauty stuff, but I have to say something that I continue to reach for is the eyeliner. So this is the R-E-M Beauty eyeliner marker. There is a flaw to it. So first of all, the formulation in here is literal perfection. I cannot tell you anything wrong with the formula here. It doesn't budge. It's nice and black. It's not too watery. It's just perfect. The only thing is I don't like the applicator. This white part right here is a little bit too thick so it makes it hard for me to really get a nice even line. Even today I kind of struggled to get my wings to look good, but the actual formulation, once you get the look down that you need, it's so perfect. I just wish the tip was a little bit different. Just the, ugh. I don't like the design of the actual marker itself, but dang, what they got in the inside is amazing. I love it. I recommend this eyeliner. Next up I have a lip liner, kind of. This is from Makeup Forever. This is their Artist Color Pencil and I picked this up at Sephora. This is the shade Anywhere Caffeine. It's kind of like a neutral mauve-y shade. It's very, very pretty. I actually love the consistency of these pencils. I've been around for a while, but I never tried them before. They're a little bit more on the waxy side as opposed to a creamy side when it comes to lip pencils and I really, really like that. I just love this shade and these are supposed to be really great pencils that you can do a lot with. They blend out very easily but they do set very nicely as well. So I am interested in picking up more shades of this but in terms of the kind of lip color that I like for a lip liner, I love this. It's cooler so it's going to give you a little bit of a contour but it leans a little bit more purple-y and warm purple-y compared to the other contouring shades that I have. I just like that change. It's a beautiful everyday lip liner. It's gonna go with so many of the other everyday lipsticks that you have so I highly recommend checking out this color and this formulation in general. So the last makeup item that I have to share with you today is the lipstick that I wore for Christmas Eve dinner which is a big deal. That's the only time I see people. I don't see people on Christmas really except for my immediate family but I wore the Maybelline Super Stay Matte Ink in the shade Pioneer and not necessarily this color is what I want you to pick up. I just want you to try this formula.  I don't know what is in this formula but dang, your lip color is not going anywhere. Now it's not the most comfortable lip color if you cannot stand a little bit of a drying feeling maybe you don't use this but oh my gosh for any event your lip color is not going anywhere. It's absolutely amazing. Now I wore the shade Pioneer. This almost has more of a berry undertone to it so sometimes you look at it and it looks red. Sometimes you look at it. It looks a little bit more pink. So I don't love this color. It was perfect for Christmas Eve but just this formula in general I'm amazing. It amazes me every time I wear this but I was just thinking for wearing a red on Christmas and eating and all of that good stuff and this still didn't budge. Super impressed.  I don't know in the way that I eat but I always get like red right on my chin. I didn't have that from Christmas dinner with this so thank you. And there we have you guys. Those were all the products that I've been loving in December. The summer was crazy so I actually think because I did so many targeted videos for specific products I didn't get to really love on the makeup that I was using and choose my favorites but these were products that either I did wear for the occasion and I just loved it and had to tell you guys or I just kept coming back to in the background. So I hope you guys enjoyed this video and you found it helpful. What were your favorite products for the month of December? Let me know and I will see you guys in the next one. Bye guys, have a good one.


Hello and welcome to the session. In this session we discussed the following question which says evaluate integral x square upon 1 plus x cube dx. Now let's move on to the solution. Consider integral x square upon 1 plus x cube dx. Now here let us assume that 1 plus x cube be equal to t. So on differentiating both the sides we get 3x square dx. That is, this gives us x square dx is equal to 1 upon 3 dt. Therefore from the above integral we get integral 1 upon 3 dt over t. That is on substituting 1 plus x cube equal to t in this integral and taking x square dx equal to 1 upon 3 dt we get this. So this is equal to 1 upon 3 integral dt over t and this is further equal to 1 upon 3 into log modulus t plus c. Now here we take t equal to 1 plus x cube. So this is equal to 1 upon 3 log modulus 1 plus x cube plus c. Thus we have got integral x square dx over 1 plus x cube is equal to 1 upon 3 log modulus 1 plus x cube plus c where this c is the constant of integration. Thus our final answer is integral x square over 1 plus x cube dx is equal to 1 upon 3 log modulus 1 plus x cube plus c where this c is constant of integration. So this completes this session. Hope you have understood the solution for this question.