What's up guys, takedowns back with another video. Today's video is simple. Why I got into collecting the things that I collect. So this is pretty basic, pretty short video in my opinion. Probably going to be shorter than I think. Basically I'm going to be talking about collecting. So why did I get into collecting? Quite simple. I enjoy the things I collect. I was collecting coins for years because my dad gave me some of my grandfather's coins, old coins. So I've always started collecting every year because I live in Canada. There's always new collectible coins out, different designs, different anniversaries for different things like war and different monuments and such like that. So I've always been collecting for years coins. I have a pretty big coin collection. I wish to display it soon. I just have to get stuff to display it. But then I transitioned into comic books kind of the 11th and 12th grade. I bought some from a friend at school, sold them all, made a little bit of profit, not much. And then after high school I purchased 500 from a guy, sold them. I made close to $300 profit and I've kept one whole box. So that's close to $200 give or take. And I've been sharing them on the channel and videos showing my comic book collections. They've been doing pretty good, decent, not too bad. The other thing I started collecting kind of this past year started in actually started in the 2017-2018 Tim Horton's cards whenever they came out, hockey cards. I started collecting them and then that shouldn't just transition into the upper deck cards, the OPH key, buying them, buying blaster boxes, buying the big mega boxes. This year I spent quite a bit on hockey cards, but I've had quite a few in return and I'm going to sell a lot of my doubles, a lot of the ones I don't want and keep all the ones I do enjoy. So I'll probably make at least half maybe three-quarters of my money back because I do have some expensive ones. I do plan on keeping a lot of them, but I'll sell all my doubles. So I've been collecting that and showing that on my channel whenever I'm opening them. I know I've been butchering the names, but please bear with me because I'm not trying to. It's just I'm learning a new thing and it's collecting something new and I've always been a fan of hockey and always interested in hockey. I've always played the NHL games. I've always watched the Ottawa Senators for years, but I don't follow names of players. There's even some players on the Ottawa Senators. It's like I don't know the name, I don't pronounce it right and I understand that. It's frustrating to some people, but it is me. The other thing I collect is video games. I wish to get Nintendo Entertainment System this year and some of the old games I grew up on that I had in the house as a kid. That is one goal I wish to do, but I've collected WWE games specifically for the PS2, PS3 and then for my PS4 for the past almost 15 years, which is really cool. I know some people have a bigger collection than that for WWE, but I mean that's my biggest collection. I do plan on getting more geek stuff in the future. I did do a geek fuel unboxing recently and I really did like some of the stuff. Some of the stuff I didn't, but I plan on doing more of that in the future. It kind of depends on if it is of interest to me and I'm not going to spend a lot of money. I mean if it's not going to get the views and it's not something I enjoy, I'm not spending money on it. What else do I collect? I collect CDs. I love collecting CDs, music, bands that I love, even some that I don't, but I respect them and I respect them as an artist and I respect their album. Most of the music I collect I do love though. I did show that on the video. I did make my top 10 and in the top 10 video I did explain a little bit more of what I thought of each album and why I have it at which spot in top 10. That's a little bit better. My CD collection video, that's me just basically showing. I have this one. I have this one. I have this one and just naming them all off, which was a good video in my opinion. It did really well, but it was poorly executed. But now to answer the question, why do I collect and why do I show you guys? I show you guys because I want to connect with you guys more. I want to show you my collections. I want to relate with you guys more. If you guys are into anything that I collect, there's that connection so I can build a connection with my fans. The other reason why I collect, it's a hobby after high school that I really, really aggressively took on. I have the gaming which I aggressively take, took on. I have my collecting that I do now which I aggressively took on and I even do videos of course on my channel which I aggressively started taking on and it consumes most of my life. I enjoy doing it. That's why I collect. I know I'm almost done with hockey cards for the season. I do have some more on the way and I make all those videos in advance. I'll make a few videos and then I'll release them periodically or randomly. I don't release them all at once because I want content for a couple weeks, couple months. I enjoy showing you guys what I have. It's not like I'm going out and purchasing comic books just to show you guys. I just purchased the comic books for myself. I purchased the CDs for myself. I purchased hockey cards for myself but then I opened them in front of the camera. Everything I'm showing you guys, it's not like oh I bought it just to make a video. I bought it for myself because I enjoy collecting it and then now I'm just sharing it with you guys to see if you guys are interested in that and you guys have been for the most part. I do have some fans that will enjoy the hockey card series. I do have some fans that enjoy the comic book videos. I do have some fans that enjoy the music CDs I've been sharing. Just heads up. I do plan on doing music covers and other music stuff in the videos or in the future and sharing some of my old beats so stay tuned for that if you're interested in that. But that's kind of why I like showing you guys my collection. That's why I like collections. I feel it's a great hobby and I feel if you like something enough to start collecting only collect stuff that you like. Not just because it's everybody collects it. I mean that's not why I got into hockey cards. That's not why I got into comic books. That's not why I got into CDs or video games or coins. I really wish I could show you guys coins but I haven't really thought it out of how I can present it because it doesn't look good on a camera. But maybe in the future if you guys are interested. But I'll leave this video here. It was just a quick video on how and why I collect what I collect. So I'll leave this video here. Hope you guys did enjoy it. If you did please give it a thumbs up because it helps out more than you think especially with YouTube these days. Peace.


Hey kids, I'm back in outer space for another try a chapter book tag Right after this my work here on YouTube is supported by viewers visit my page at 50th Street to become a sponsor You can pledge a small monthly amount or make a one-time donation As you know, I really enjoy making these try a chapter book tag videos It gives me an opportunity to read a larger Amount of stuff and a larger variety of stuff by reading the first two or three chapters of a book and Then deciding whether I want to continue with them or not I've been wanting to do another one of these for weeks now along with other projects. I've been wanting to get to I've spent the last Two weeks bedridden with the flu. It's been really awful. I'm starting to feel normal now not good But normal So let's do this first Book number one this time around is called Copernick's Rebellion by Leo Frank Kowski I'm having to show you a picture of it here because I Lost it. I've completely misplaced it somewhere and I really liked it I read the first two. I don't remember maybe three chapters and it was very good really exciting It's about a guy who is genetically engineering trees to grow into fully furnished houses Complete with pantries and refrigerators that will continually grow food. So he's not just Destroying the housing industry. He's destroying every industry and Everybody in the world is out to stop him. It was really neat and I want to finish it But I'll have to find it Next is Sargasso space by Andre Norton. I've never reviewed an Andre Norton book. It's about time that I talked about an Andre Norton book. This is a 1955 Space saga book Very traditionally written Very typical of the kind of space sagas you would see in the 1950s a young kid just out of high school Applies to become a spaceman on the on the big space freighters.  That's where I got so far. I liked it.  There we go I talked about this when I first bought it and I was really looking forward to reading it I read the first few chapters and It's good It's it's written in a very Very sedate Very straightforward prose style. It's not comedy which Albert Brooks is known for it. It is satire But it's about the near future where the older generations have ruined everything for the Millennials It's very prophetic. I will definitely finish this someday. Next is robopocalypse by Daniel H. Wilson This is the disappointment of the batch the prologue the introduction was very exciting One of the most exciting introductions I've ever read I it was Thrilling I couldn't wait to read more It was about survivors in a future where robots have destroyed all humanity a terminator kind of future They find deep buried underground a device that they suspect is The machines master records unit And that's where the prologue ended off and I was like wow, this is going to be great But then the rest of the book all the chapters are only a few pages long and they're written in the form of transcripts of material that was found in the records and That's a bad way to write A novel It doesn't work the writing and the transcript sections was not good I didn't find the dialogue believable everybody talked exactly like everybody else This is the dud.  She by hrider haggard I've always wanted to read this. I've seen movie and tv interpretations of this. I've read comics versions of it I read the first Several chapters here. It was first published in 1886. It's written in a traditional victorian style that's overly wordy, but Still it moves along quickly and it was very exciting They're just getting ready to head off to africa and I'm loving it and I think I'll read this one first Thanks for watching. See you next time Thank you for watching. Please be sure to press that thumbs up button That's how videos get recommended and seen and please take a look at the link in the description below And go to my 50th street page where you can become a sponsor And help me to continue to produce more videos here on youtube. Thank you


Hello and welcome to the Grand Line Review, your source for everything one piece. And today for the glorious Devil Fruit Encyclopedia, we are going to be exploring one of the most deadly fruits within the entire series, wielded by a man who spends most of his time on the toilet, the Doku Doku No Mi. The Doku Doku No Mi is a Paramecia type fruit that allows its user to generate and manipulate various types of poison. And first and foremost, I want to dispel any confusion surrounding the classification of this fruit, and certain segments of the fan base do often mistake this for a low-gear fruit. However, the user of the Doku Doku No Mi cannot become poison. It just might get confusing because the user in the series just so happens to love covering himself in death goo, thus giving the impression that he becomes poison at times. Speaking of this fruit was consumed by the one-time warden of Impel Down Magellan, and given that, it should be fairly reasonable to assume that it made its first appearance during the Impel Down Arc. In terms of names and stuff, we have another fairly straightforward fruit here, as Doku is the Japanese word for poison. Although there is a little bit of a fun pun within the name of the devil fruit being Doku Doku, because that happens to be the Japanese onomatopoeia, meaning something along the lines of in a steady stream. Now, both Viz and Funimation are in agreement regarding the English translation of this fruit. However, it's not poison-poison, as you may suspect, and it is, in fact, the venom-venom fruit. The difference between poison and venom being that venom is a poisonous substance crafted within animals and injected into a target, whereas poison is more of a substance that is secreted and ingested. And it might seem like an odd choice at first, but many techniques used by Magellan actually have venom in their name, so I can see why they went down that venom road, although actually a lot of his techniques have poison in their name as well, but let's not think about that. But make no mistake, poison is what this fruit is really all about. And just another brief thing on etymology and semantics, it's worth noting that the Funimation dub differs considerably from the Vizmanga translation as they continue the venom naming scheme even when poison would be the more correct translation, both in terms of the little word Doku and in the pragmatic interpretation of the attack. All right, so when I said in the beginning that this was one of the most deadly fruits to have ever existed, I absolutely mean it. Everything about this fruit is designed to irritate, maim, or kill whoever just so happens to be around or targeted by it. And that really is up to the discretion of the user as they have complete control over what type of poison they emit as well as its potency. Now, as for the extent of poison typings, the most basic distinction that we're able to make is that the user can generate poison in the form of either liquid or gas, with both of them holding their respective advantages and disadvantages. However, it isn't necessarily that simple because within those two categories, not only can the user, as mentioned before, control the potency of the poison, but they also seem to have more advanced chemical control, and this was demonstrated in the series when Magellan was able to craft a liquid imbued with a heavily corrosive agent. Now, I point this out because it's a very common trope in media that the more potent the poison is, the more automatically corrosive or corrosive it all it is, and this simply is not the case. But as a result of this extreme control, the user of the Doku Doku and me can mimic a wide array of substances such as tear gas. With this in mind, I think it's fair to speculate that the user of this fruit would be able to mimic most known poisons within the world, provided they had an understanding of their chemical composition in order to generate them. And this also leaves a lot of potential to augment the fruit's output, as if the user were incapable of generating a substance needed to craft a particular type of poison, they would more than likely just be able to add that foreign agent to their body and wields temporary poisonous glory. However, this sort of usage would be best suited to a chemist rather than, you know, a jailer. So speaking of, let's examine how Mr. Magellan makes use of this fine, fine fruit, and for the most part, it is actually pretty incredible. Magellan is a man of very blunt needs and actions, and his use of the Doku Doku and me very much reflects that. For a start, Magellan has a tendency of coating himself in a layer of liquid poison, a sort of armor per se, which definitely doesn't protect him from being hit. However, it will make the person attempting to strike him think twice, because they'll immediately be exposed to what could potentially be deadly poison. Of course, Magellan is also a bit more direct than this, and he won't simply wait for someone to hit him, instead preferring to conjure a hydra out of poison, which has the same effect, only it is entirely offensive, putting any potential opponents in a very unenviable situation, of neither being able to strike the creature, nor be struck by the creature. And another wonderful innovation with the fruit that I quite enjoy is the Venom Road Technique, in which Magellan engulfs himself within said hydra, and uses it to move at high speed, because it should be said that Magellan can conjure an absolutely ridiculous amount of poison, so he can more or less use it like the tube transport system in future armor. Now as for a more questionable use of the fruit, this oddly hasn't been stated before now, but consuming the Doku Doku and me will make its user immune to the intended effects of external poisons, you know, like death and such. However, it does not, I repeat it does not, negate the effects of foreign poisons entirely, and to demonstrate this, we need only to focus on Magellan's unique appetite.  Instead, Magellan sources outside poisons for his food, which results in him spending up to 10 hours a day, in the bathroom, due to the intense diarrhea that consumption of external poisons causes him. Now equally as terrifying as spending 10 hours a day on the toilet is the idea of awakening this devil fruit, because even if the Doku Doku and me subscribes to the standard Paramesio awakening, meaning that its user would now be able to turn the environment around them into poison, then it could become apocalyptically devastating. But while we're here, there is also another misconception that Magellan is already an awakened Paramesio user, and it comes from the idea that Magellan's ultimate attack being the Venom Demon was shown influencing the environment, like the stone around Impel Down and Galdino's Whack, stuff like that. This is not an awakening, it's simply what happens when a hyper toxin comes into contact with, well, any substance, it goes on to make it toxic to some degree. An awakening would be more like Magellan waves his hands and transforms a portion of Impel Down into poison, which both Dolph Lamingo and Charlotte Cardicuri were shown to be capable of with their respective awakenings. And you know that isn't to say that Magellan isn't an awakened user, he just hasn't shown the standard signs of a Paramesio awakening, and thus we cannot classify him as such. Some other miscellaneous things to consider than becoming a poison human. While the Dokudokudomi does present some fairly fearsome power, its utility is questionable. There is no doubt that the natural tendency of this fruit leans towards destruction, and as such it may be difficult to apply to a peaceful existence, unless of course that existence is achieved through maintaining order with a particularly heavy hand. Although one thing you may be able to do is contribute to science by replicating various poisons in order to develop an antidote for them or to study them in some form. Or, and this is a radical idea, that perhaps true mastery of the awakening of this fruit would allow it to use its fraught non-poisonous substances that can actually benefit those around them. But admittedly I think that this is a bit of a stretch. But in the end, I can't help but come back to the sheer power contained within the Dokudokunomi. I mean if it simply generated one type of poison then that would be well one thing, but the user's ability to control the poison at minute levels is impossible to ignore. This fruit holds incredible potential. However, that potential exists primarily within one sector, which is combat and containment. And you know if that's your jam then this is 100% recommended because there are very, very few other fruits out there that will serve your purposes better. However, for those of you who are looking for something that will greatly assist day-to-day life, well there are many, many better options. And with that we are going to commit the Dokudokunomi to the devil fruit encyclopedia. Next week we'll be taking a side step from chronology. Well, not really because it was around this time that Chapter Zero came out I guess. But we are going to be setting our sights onto the incredibly floaty powers held by Golden Lion Shiki with the Fuwa Fuwa No Mi. If you enjoyed this video and the content this channel produced in general, then please do consider donating to the Grand Line Review Patreon because the support of all of your amazing people is what continues to make this channel possible. And if you'd like to see more videos like this but applied to other anime and longer series, then please do check out my second channel New World Review for all of your wider needs. And if you'd like to join the fun at any time then please do head over to my Discord server where a wide array of shenanigan retakes place on a daily basis. And finally, please do comment with your thoughts on the Doku Doku No Mi. This has been the Grand Line Review and I'll see you next time. I understand you have a dog. If he slash she had a devil fruit ability, what would it be? And yes, you understand correctly. I have a border collie named Puck and if he were to possess some sort of devil fruit, then I suspect it would be something related to licking like the lick lick fruit, which in my mind would enhance the user's tongue to the point where it has some sort of special powers depending on the desire of the user. Basically this is because Puck is a voracious slicker which is something that all puppies do. And in fact, my wife told me that when we first got him that this was all just a phase and that he will grow out of it.  Who would win in an all out battle? Brooke or Frankie? Although Frankie is not allowed to use his giant robot. Hmm, intriguing. I think this very much depends on what the conditions of victory are. I mean, from Frankie's perspective, he just needs to punch things and make sure they don't get up to achieve victory. However, Brooke's priorities is somewhat, how shall we say, unrelated to combat. In fact, thinking about it, I feel like Brooke's only goal in life is to see panties. I mean, other than the boon, but let's be honest, panties trump whale. So Brooke actually becomes the automatic winner of this fight because Frankie's undergarments are on display at all times.  Well, it's still growing so I can't give you quite a solid answer on that but I can pinpoint when it started to take off. And essentially it took about an entire year of making content solidly. Mainly chapter reviews and One Piece 101s to gain any sort of traction. So by the end of the first year that I'd been making stuff consistently, I had 500 subscribers, which I thought was incredible at the time. And I would like to thank everyone who did subscribe in the early days of questionable content. But after that, things just kind of exploded. I'm not really sure how. A month later, that count doubled to 1,000. By the time the next year came around, we were sitting at over 30,000. Now here we are, having toppled 100,000. It's been an incredibly surreal journey. Why don't you make Ten Min's video as, or do sponsors? All right, so starting with sponsors, to put it frankly, I've never been offered a legitimate sponsorship. I have however been approached by a lot of dodgy companies who propose to quote unquote, sponsor the channel through affiliate marketing, which I highly recommend nobody out there ever partakes in because it's just a scam for the large majority of the time. As for 10 minute video as, I absolutely do make those although they are a lot rarer on this channel because it focuses on delivering clear, concise and easily digestible content. As a result, I can't really add a lot of padding to the videos nor can I earn a lot because I just hate that. However, something I could theoretically do is artificially extend a video by adding a question and answer segment to the end in order to reach that sweet, sweet 10 minute mark but still provide you with some sort of quality content. But of course, that's just hypothetical.


All right, welcome to the last set news to get top stories in crypto break amount of bite-sized pieces today Just the thumbnail title suggests we're gonna take a look at what just happened to the market as the Fed comes out and talks About the minutes that they just had in March and what's gonna happen potentially in May So take a look at that story also take a look at the ETH merger that is coming out or some might call it ETH 2.0 Which is not called that anymore and we take a look at what Mark Cuban thinks about it and then we'll take a look at Even though he thinks it's great We'll take a look at some misconceptions and then we'll get to a little Q&A at the end five questions in five minutes And we'll wrap this whole thing up. So first of all, let's take a look at the market recap Also, if you're catching the live stream, welcome. Thanks for stopping by If you're watching the replay just know the time stands below and then before we start You may notice that the backdrop is a little bit different. So we are back in El Paso also Because of some mix up with some luggage. I'm using a new microphone So I have no idea how this sounds. We did a test. It didn't sound too bad But I don't think it's gonna sound near as crisp as our original SMB So we have one on the way it'll be about three days or so Amazon can only do so much. So before we start I just want to know exactly how good or how bad this microphone sounds because everybody Really does not like crappy audio before we get going. So that's the big question So there's about like a 30-second delay. So let me just look in the comments real quick and go for I want indoor pool too. It's not that great. Trust me.  Wow, it's amazing because this mic is Maybe not be the best slight echo. Yeah, I can see that for sure. Sounds good sound is fine totally found Surprise too. All right. So we'll see about the echo. Maybe just a little bit here Go down. Yeah, I should be okay. All right Well when Mullet says it's okay. So it's okay. All right So let's just jump into it and take a look at what's going on the market so if you may have noticed not too long ago market sucking and That is just par for the course. Look, we had a pretty good run We had a pretty good run over the last week two weeks or so. We were setting we weren't setting so a little bit higher highs and Not not so much the lower lows and that's why people were you know, very into that that bullish sentiment They said the bull runs back, baby. I'm like wait, maybe bullish sentiment I don't know about a bull run, but I mean, I hope so and then today look what happens Bitcoin down actually under fresh this is this Let me show some stats for everybody so they can kind of get it as a bummer Yeah, market cap might slip below two trillion. It was a 2.2 almost 2.3 Bitcoin done. Let's just do it. What's up? USD coin is up. Congratulations. I use I'm just kidding. It's a stable coin. I'm curious. Let's see. Hey, Binance USD I'm just kidding. It's another stable coin So when you see stuff like this where there's the stable coins are up a little bit by 0.1 percent It's everybody selling they're selling because they're afraid and they're putting it into those stable coins because They want to get out before the potential crash me personally I could have sold I could have like a lot of stuff going on So right now I'm just like yeah, I could have sold because of this Fed reserve minutes and some other things that are going on the background, but in all honesty I'm just not That person right now. I just the the market is volatile. Everybody has their own strategies people might like to You know do a little bit more trading a little bit more dollar cost averaging It's all what you want to do me personally. I just dollar cost average. I hold I buy and hold for the long time I'm in there for like three to five years there's in 2017 I'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop and then as time goes on I'll sell off a little bit as I see some more profits. That's just me So what's amazing to me before we go on is this this is Ben's website It's app into the cryptoverse link in the description. It's not an affiliate link. I get no No shucks or shames for or money kickbacks for talking about Ben's great site But it really is great and one of those is he has a fear and greed index. He's got a bunch of other things Like does it bleed and volatility indexes and then now the risk assessment, which I cannot show you because That's for the members But the fear and greed index you can find this anywhere and I just like how he puts this together and to me It's amazing that blow this up so you can see it You know in the blue is the Bitcoin price at you know 45 one fear and great index is 48 If you go lower more towards zero is where you're essentially scared S-list and then all the way up to a hundred is where it's like Superior greed and just going crazy and to me it's amazing like you have the price at 45 one Yet the fear and great index is like right in the middle people like no big deal Whatever and we even see that today as it as you know the market just plummets people like that whatever But if you take if you take a look back That same look when it was a 46 almost 47,000 it was people are pretty fearful So to me it's always amazing the mentality of people how they get scared as time goes on like oh no because you know It came down from well, I mean all honesty it came down from like 57,000 to 46,000 So of course people are scared, but if you just zoom out when endowed zoom out and take a look and go well, you know March 2020 it was like five thousand six thousand. So the longer you stay in this Asset class the more you are immune to the volatility and that's that mentality to like sell at all cost So just my two cents and not financial vice, but that's what we got So let's jump into today's top story the minutes and the minutes Comes out of this Fed came out and said hey, this is these were the Fed minutes in March And this is what we're gonna do and it's not looking too good for me. Here's what's happening So Federal Reserve plans on a predictable wind down. So the Federal Reserve on Wednesday That's the day right release minutes from its March 15th and 16th meeting which details Conversations among top central bank officials suggesting the Fed will soon start the process of shrinking its nine Trillion dollar balance sheet. That's trillion with the T. Where is it right here? Look at this look at this nonsense this is a fiscal responsibility back down here, you know, not even a trillion, you know, and then 2010 all right, it's about the market cap of crypto currency And then if we keep going forward, look at this look at this look at this 2022 almost nine almost nine trillion and that's them just buying and quantitative easing and praying to the moon and Buying up mortgage. It's just amazing. So anyhow, this is what's happening The Fed has yet to officially vote on exactly how to carry the process out Which is far as like reducing their holdings although it could begin as soon as next month And actually we're gonna see which one wants to do it next month for two years the Fed bought over 4 trillion and assets mostly focused in US Treasuries and agency mortgage back securities. So this is one of the reasons why you see What's going on with the market one of the reasons I can never tell you all the reasons no one knows all the reasons Who knows it may be?  But this is one of the reasons why it's going down The purchases finally stopped last month as the Fed pivoted to a stronger stance against rising inflation price increases at a yearly pace unseen since the 1980s and this has spurred the Fed official into supporting a This is key a faster drawback and it's exceptionally easy money policies. This involves Raising short-term interest rates. So those sweet interest rates on houses Those are gonna go up different rates that you got. It's all gonna go up for the loans So if everybody's like, wow, I can't wait to buy a house give it a year The rates will be up and people won't be buying as much. So this process is the process is called quantitative tightening This is what it gets interesting the top Fed officials generally agreed on monthly caps of about 60 billion for Treasury Securities and 35 for agency mortgage back securities. The Fed says the caps would be phased in over a period of three months Let me say that again The Fed says the caps will be phased in over a period of three months or modestly longer if market conditions weren't meaning if the if they Start to do this tightening and the market starts to crash the black You know what? Maybe we'll ease off or maybe they won't a faster This this would be a faster pace in the Fed's last attempt at the peak of the Fed's efforts Which was I did not remember this from 2017 to 2019 to shrink its holdings It topped out its monthly wind down at a pace of 30 billion pace for treasuries and 20 billion monthly pace For agency mortgage backscurries. Why is this important? because of this next sentence on Mortgage back securities the Fed said it could consider a more aggressive roll-off process via actively selling its holdings and then federal Fed Governor Lyle Brainerd said the actual process could begin as Soon as our main meeting and she expects the process to be carried out considerably More rapidly than the last recovery, which we just talked about. So here's what it comes down to If you were worried that the Fed and the tightening process was Might might affect the markets now, you know, I mean just just a glimpse of what could potentially happen just brings the crypto markets Down a little bit. Is this bad in the long term? No, probably not. This is bad in the short term. Yes, obviously So if you are really aggressive trader, this may have hurt today, sorry But if you're just in it for the long haul over the long run should work out Okay, not financial advice just financial pinning. That's what we have for that one. That really got me thinking about this what Would wallet three number do that's the question wallet three if you don't know this is the Mysterious wall three that been from into the cryptiverse brought into my attention and this is just a wallet Which has a massive amount of Bitcoin. No one knows who it is. No one. I mean, it's not labels any exchange It's not any kind of Treasury. It's not really a sovereign nation. No of but as you can see here today at five 1706 I guess UTC time they didn't it's it's negligible, but April 6th at 1608 they bought 59 Bitcoin and just a couple of days ago they bought 3000 Bitcoin roughly because Two days ago, which is weird. They sold 3000 Bitcoin and then picked up 3000 Bitcoin plus 159 So they are accumulating a little bit and this also got me to thinking what? what do quandu From Luna and if you don't know this story Luna and their and The organization they're looking to purchase roughly three billion dollars worth of Bitcoin And what did they do? Well, they did the same thing. They bought on April 6th at 8 in the morning today I'm pretty sure they would have wished they would have waited just a little bit But they got 490 Bitcoin. They also got 95 Bitcoin a little bit before that and then Right before that for 91 Bitcoin. So again, this is an example of dollar-crossed averaging at its highest level This is what's going on the background. Do you think that people really care so much about the short term? Which is the Fed minutes and what's gonna happen over the next six months to a year? Not really They're looking at a three five ten twenty year plan and that's kind of like where I'm at myself So let me think about that in the comment section if you think like now, I'm not really here for the long haul Let's actually let's finish up with this. I didn't know this but the Luna Foundation just want to throw this in there That wallet which is called LFG was pretty funny Bitcoin wallet is larger than every other publicly listed company Bitcoin treasury except for Tesla and micro strategy. So a short term short time They've killed a lot LFG's wall value is currently half of the three billion worth of Bitcoin Terras founder Doquan and hinted the project would purchase in March. So remember They said they're gonna buy three billion. They only bought about 1.5. So that's what we got for that story Let's move on to an ETH merger news for everybody who loves a theorem, which it actually also includes me so This was interesting It's not so much about Mark Cuban. I don't really care about I mean Mark Cuban seems like a nice guy Owns of Mavericks really under crypto likes to get rug pulled Just kidding, but not really so this one he talks about a theorem And I want to just clear up some misconceptions and before I say this I must tell you I'm super biased. So everything I talk about on this channel. I own and Probably a lot of it. So when I talk about Bitcoin or Ethereum or Solana or Cardano or chain link It's because I own it. So just so everybody knows that so I own a theorem and Bitcoin theorem or one of my larger holdings But I need to make sure everybody knows about these misconceptions. So let's get into the story Mark He was bullish. Why is he bullish? Well, the rest is the first part is boring So first he's bullish because it when they go from proof of work to proof of stake Who knows when that's gonna be Ethereum's energy consumption will be cut by 99% so we all know that right proof of work Use a lot of energy, but it's super secure proof of stake cuts down energy So Mark Cuban's all about that great good for that So that's those ESG compliance issues all the corporations can get behind that which I think could be actually a big boom If you just take a listen to like some of those institutions second Mark Cuban said he's interested in less ether issuance after the merge and how that will possibly make it deflationary Which I think it's all almost already is Following the murders the amount of ETH issued is projected to drop by 90% Which would lead similar levels of fees to reduce if ether supply by as much as 5% a year great Blockchain alex firm into the block said so they've been looking this and they can confirm that if demand increases as the supply Decline the price of ether may rise. I'm pretty sure that's how it works Demand increases supply declines usually the price goes up. I could be wrong, but it's impossible to predict the future Sure, that's true. No one's got a crystal ball even though they like to shop of it and then lastly Just so you know Cuban is also invested in many companies building on looking to scale or interact with Ethereum That's a good Lesson for the investor out there if you don't really know like which one to do like there's I mean everything's There's so many things built on a theorem. Just invest Can't say that so I Invest a lot into Ethereum because I don't All the different products that are built on top of a theorem. I don't know which one's gonna make it There's thousands.  That's what changed the game That's what got me excited. That's why it's a lot like the internet great Let's move on to some misconceptions about I think why he's so excited Maybe so excited, but he did lay it out. He's like look last less energy consumption and then you know, it's got That can be deflationary so great, but here's the misconceptions. I think this is what people are thinking of One this is big the merge won't create a new Ethereum token I think we're kind of all I don't know if we all knew that but I just want everybody to make sure Because it used to be called e2.0 and now it's not called that. Why is it? I didn't understand why until I read this article So a big misconception is that a theorem will have a new token which is an accurate. This is from a theorem developer Tim Bico nailed it the merge was referred to as a theorem 2.0 or e2 But in January the e-foundation in the blockchain's core developers announced that this labeling will be phased out as Many scammers were trying to convince users that there would be a new e2 token separate from me So just so you know, it's a public service announcement There's no new e-token if you have e-th. It'll just go over to On the new chain So you don't have to swap anything if you see any kind of ridiculous videos that are out there like swap it over to this This private wallet don't do that. It's just if you have any questions go Directly to the Ethereum foundation and take a look at their website all the data is there before you do anything actually Come to this channel or channels like this and just go in the Q&A and just say is this true? Just to make sure I'm pretty sure I'll save you a bunch of money doing that and then also This is big the merge will not lower a theorem of fees and this was also the same problem with EIP 1559 people thought oh, it's gonna lower the fees. It's not gonna lower the fees Which sucks because let's be honest theorem fees are pretty high But it's not gonna lower the fees and they're misconception that the merge will lower gas fees This is inaccurate Baco said Bico whatever currently a theorem has both a proof of work and proof of stake chain running in Parallel while both chains have validators only the proof of work chain Currently processes use a transaction. So proof of work is the only one processing the transaction right now Later on it'll be proof of stake chain So just so you know many might hope that this structure change would cause the price of gas fees to decline Since such fees can sometimes add hundreds of dollars to the cost of processing e-transactions, but it's won't so just so you know That's not gonna happen And then lastly, there's no set date for when the merger will happen And I know people have been talking about it's definitely this date, but this article wasn't too long ago March 28th Unless something officially has changed, but Bico said it pretty good here. He says some predict that this merger might happen this summer But it's important only rely on the word of a theorem foundation regarding confirmed timing It is likely that scams and fake announcements will pop up in the coming month. So That's just something for you to be aware of so as we move into ETH from proof of work to proof of stake just know there's gonna be a ton of scams out there People are gonna lose their Ethereum people are gonna lose a lot of money. That's just how it happens So hopefully you'll know to not do those things and just know that that there is no Ethereum to token It doesn't make any sense. So that's what it is. And again, there is no time frame for what is going on Which hopefully that leads You know open for other different chains to knock out of the park Maybe Solana does it maybe Cardano with the pipelining and hydra with a million transaction per second I don't know. Maybe avalanche makes the next big play. I have no idea But I can tell you what I'm doing Investing in all the ones I just talked about because I don't know who's gonna win. I don't really care I just know that When things start to move I want to own at least one of those and that's what I'm doing Not what I tell you to do and that's it for today. So look Hey 20 minutes. We made it now. Let's uh, I was breaking a little quick Q&A five questions in five minutes and before I forget Tomorrow we are doing The dca show usually do it on friday with ben from into the cryptiverse but uh, ben is at uh, miami for the bitcoin conference also james at a great, uh Video on the day one miami conference. I guess he has time to actually watch all these things I didn't have time today, but uh, go check out his channel the links in the description for his channel also for cto larson Who's uh, you know, I've got a wealth of information as far as technical and ta knowledge and we're going to do a show tomorrow So uh over on cto larson's channel. So check that out. I'll let everybody know via twitter And we'll go from there. Let's go to the little q&a, huh? uh Yes, just what mullis said hit the like and subscribe. Well, where are you man? Are you in chicago still? In that tundra I tell you where you should be mullet. You should be in portorica. That place is awesome Uh, yes, i'm glad to be back too. It took a long time So now that we did the whole show Let me just ask everybody. How was that? Uh, let me stop this The mic did it was it okay because I need to use this mic for like three days until the new Microphone comes in. So if it was really bad, I just uh won't do a show And but it's okay with everybody. I'll still use it till sorry Robbie's now of the beard and me too What's happening to the waves catastrophe? I'm not sure but waves had a heck of a run Uh for quite some time and I even take a look at that. I'm like, man, I wish we would have gotten to waves It's a pretty good project and then of course it goes down again Are all these valuations correct? No, can you make a lot of money? Sure But in the long run in the long run, I think it's the projects that have solid utility Great team and they know how to actually build and move things forward That's the that is the problem with with most businesses that I've seen is that they just they have a hard time scaling They can get a product off the ground But to actually make it to those million hundred million one billion people That's challenging and there's only a select few that can actually do that. That's why there's amazon Uh, let's see That's a good question So the question is Is question number one Could smart contracts one day hold hostage political donations until one or more campaign promises are filled By the time they have an office or full of refund So yes, it could but the question is then how would you get that real world data to what they said they're going to do To actually trigger that smart contracts Algorithm or the actual process to actually release those funds. So That would be very tricky. So let's say you have Let's say you have some politician who's like I'm running and uh, let's say it's local and they say well, I want to we're gonna, you know, really empower do it do an empowerment zone and we're going to uh Take all these different housing complexes and you know, put a bunch of money into them and build them all up Well, how would you get that data real world data and I know right now everybody's saying chain link Okay, so how do you get chain link to get the data that it actually was Done and there actually was an increase in valuation of these properties And there was actually all this construction done and put into that smart contract So the funds would be released that would be very tough But uh, hey, you know, this would be like In 1995 when people are like, you know, it's really tough Streaming video that is so hard. How can we possibly get to be done to to actually do that because it would take so much data to do it So there you go Smarter people than me That's a great question question number two. What feels more like home Texas of Puerto Rico You always feel like you're missing home whenever you live When you leave that place I was kind of begrudgingly left Puerto Rico I love that place is great. It really is at first. I didn't like it at all But as time goes on you really appreciate what's going on there And I encourage everybody to take a vacation there just to check it out if you want to leave and I did a pretty and a pretty In-depth video. It's about 40 minutes. Just search digital asset news Puerto Rico And uh, the one I did just like a month ago about 40 minutes and it talks about all the things I would have done differently how I do things now and uh, why I think it's uh, probably the best place if you are looking for games In crypto and it fits your lifestyle. That's all I can say Uh, how would you buy crypto for children? Hmm This is it I'm going to make this as simple as I possibly can Well, there's an easy way right you can you can buy them a ledger And then buy the crypto stick in the ledger and go, hey I'm going to give you these uh seed phrases when you turn 18 because god knows we don't want our 16 year old kids Buying lambos and stuff.  I don't know. It's up to you So like what I would do is something as simple as that the bigger question though is Tax implications and things like that because you can only give so much and depending on the country that you're in I don't know where you're at christian christian ponce. I have no idea But uh, what we try to do is put everything at trust and I'll probably do a video about this at some point but a trust Think of it like as a corporation and instead of like Passing on your properties whatever those are Whether it be crypto or stocks or a real estate Instead of passing them on after you die directly to your kids and then have that that taxed You put it into a trust and a trust is a corporation. You were the ceo of that trust You passed away. Who's the new ceo? Well, it's your son or daughter and uh, the tax implications are minimal So that's what I would do all right Yeah, lots of streamers are traveling. I traveled back to texas. Everybody else went to miami So uh, watch all their shows. I'm sure they have like live in depth Things about what's going on my in conference. I wish I could have gone It sounded like a pretty good time just to meet the people I don't care. I don't care about the people talking.  Those are fun speaking of which we should do an El Paso meetup I can do that now She is hot. I do love her Do you think stacks will do well by bringing smart counterfeit going there? I did that So this is the whole thing with like uh, miami and I think I want to say Uh, a city in Missouri and also I thought it was in colorado It's correct me in the comment section, but it's all about smart contracts. It's all about being able to invest The the people that you have in your city to be able to invest into bitcoin And then roll that money back into them. So that actually becomes like tax neutral That's the whole thing with miami and uh, suarez. What are you trying to do? So, yeah, I think you could do very well. I wish I I wish I get those guys on the channel so I could talk to them about that Markey seriously legend. Hey markey My husband wants to move now too much tax in your markey. You guys should you guys should come down Good times Oh, the mics seem fine. Fantastic. That's crazy uh Why did I switch mics because? Luggage got lost.   So I don't know Okay, great question. This will be our last question. This is question number five Hi rob question here What percentage of your crypto portfolio keep on an offline ledger versus on an exchange for passive earnings? And she's gonna hear so it fluctuates and it fluctuates. I'm gonna tell you why I'm gonna be honest with everybody because I'm lazy That's really what it comes down to so I dollar cost average every single day. I'm buying uh, bitcoin ethereum luna solana and cosmos right now that will might change In a week or two weeks just depends on what's going on And I get lazy because I use voyager and it goes in a voyager and then I'm like, okay Well, I need just I need Depending on the rates. I'll send some of that over to Celsius and I know that I need to get into anchor. I get it I know it's been lazy. There's a lot of things going on And then what I'll do is I'll try to try to switch over. I try to keep I want to keep 70 percent offline But it depends on what you want to do because like if you want to gain yield Then you can't do that on your ledger maybe in the future But someone once had a pretty good point. They said Is it worth the 4 to 9 percent that you're getting on yield? For some hack to lose your bitcoin, which could be worth X amount in the years to come look at the mount gox people I didn't get any any yields. I was like, no, that doesn't make sense But there's another option though. I do like this part I just got my debit card from voyager because I arrived We arrived in El Paso yesterday all the mail came here and I'm like, oh, I got my debit card So what I'm going to do is slowly Start to put a bunch more of my money from my different banks for the different businesses into voyager And I'm going to put it into usdc because I got like 9% that is Intel, you know mullets mullets uncle gary genzler comes down on us And tries to protect everybody and takes that offering away. So that's the plan I'm trying to do So look, that's it. We've gone 20 minutes. It's a little too long So because I I try to be respectful of people's time and I know it 30 minutes is a long time for everybody So thanks everybody for stopping by. I appreciate it lose tomorrow But maybe a little probably a little bit earlier, but we'll go from here So if you like today's video, give it a thumbs up. I'll also consider subscribing to talk about our time sensitive That's it for today. So thanks so much for watching. I appreciate it and I'll see you guys tomorrow on cto larson's channel Let's do the dca show me him and james. Adios everybody


All right. Good morning, folks. I see a number of familiar faces in the audiences. And whoever has the mic on, please turn it off so I don't reverberate between what your mic picks up and what I say. So I wanted to give an overview of some of the connections between weather models, climate models, observations, and, in a sense, parallel Earths. There are differences and there are components that are shared among the different models. We live on a fairly complex Earth. Both weather models and climate models have to have radiation transport. That's solar radiation, UV to near-infrared coming down through the atmosphere to the surface, and atmospheric or terrestrial infrared radiation going through the atmosphere, getting absorbed, and finally part of it getting radiated out to space. Along processes, important to both but in slightly different ways, we have evaporation of water, heat exchange at the ocean surface or the land surface. And over here, we have biological processes interacting with the atmosphere. So in both climate models and weather models, these processes are included but in slightly different ways. And the reason they're included in slightly different ways is the difference in time scales. First off, we can't numerically model the planet in a continual basis, which means we have to chop up the Earth horizontally into cells and then on top of each horizontal cell, like an icosahedral, or down here, what's called a cubed sphere, we have to add vertical layers. So the horizontal gridding and the vertical layering gives us a 3D grid, and it's that 3D grid on which any numerical model operates. And by the way, feel free to ask questions along the way, and hopefully a lot of them. The natural grid has been a latitude and longitude grid, but that has a big problem around the poles in that the longitude lines all come together at the pole. So the distance from longitude line to longitude line decreases as we approach the pole and finally goes to zero. At the pole we could go around the world just by turning our body around in place. On this grid, we want to model the atmosphere and we want to use algorithms that conserve mass and energy as it moves heat and air around. And it moves air around because of pressure differences. These days there's a new emphasis on having a grid and algorithms for parallel computing, and as we move toward exoscale computing, that becomes even more stringent. Exoscale being a billion, billion floating point operations per second. Yes, Vic, to answer your question, the grid extends upwards with cells above the ones below. The distance upwards isn't as large because we don't go 6,000 kilometers up, but we do have to have multiple vertical layers because of the atmosphere. These days end of the stratosphere. It used to be climate models only went up through the troposphere, but it's been learned that stratospheric processes in chemistry are important. And the stratosphere starts at about 15 kilometers near the equator and about 8 kilometers closer to the poles, probably higher than 20 kilometers. Well, the icosahedral model can also be thought of as a hexagonal grid because the triangles in the icosahedral model do make up hexagons. So, yes, that is the equilibrium area. The tube on a sphere is not entirely equilibrium, and there are boundaries at the edge of the tube part on each face. But both of them get away from having a singular pole. The grid elements are numbered. I can immediately bridge up how they're numbered, but there is a reference system for any grid. So, as we increase the resolution and go to larger problems with a 3D grid, if you double the resolution, basically you have 8 times as many calculations. And what it's turning out is that moving data in memory or between CPUs becomes much more expensive than the actual computing. So, moving to exascale computing means changing algorithms and understanding a lot more about data boom movement and trying to minimize it and moving away from some of the old paradigms. One difference between climate models and numerical weather prediction models, NWP, is that the climate model has more coarse, also known as less resolution. The difference is something like a base resolution of 12 kilometers for the weather prediction models horizontally and more like 30 kilometers for the climate models. And the weather prediction models may have some areas with greater resolution that are run nested within its main grid to make a more accurate forecast at certain places. Yes, the climate models to go with Syzygy's question predict atmosphere conditions, but not in the same sense as the weather model and I'll be getting into that. So, to run a weather model it needs good input, a best estimate of the current state of the atmosphere and ocean surface. And the process of taking all those observations and getting them on to the model grid is known as assimilation. And that's a necessary step before the prediction can begin. The data I've listed here and some of these resources are listed on the note card. So you can look in more detail or weather stations, ship reports, ocean boys, autonomous ocean boys these days that only require occasional servicing. And one of the problems with the current pandemic is people haven't been able to go out in ships and service them. So there are lots of side effects that people might not think of immediately. And if the ocean boys start going out then the forecast become less accurate and terrain, Syzygy said. And in your note card there's a link to the shuttle radar topography data, which actually data like that in the past have actually brought some into second life to do the topography of a whole sim. So it's possible to take real life topography and scale it correctly and bring it into second life. Land cover, there's several decades now of Landsat data, which includes images of different surface types and analysis from that. Radio sands, these are weather balloons carrying sort of expendable radio packages beneath them. And one of the ways of getting data profiles, vertical profiles through the atmosphere is to launch a radio sonde up through the atmosphere. It's a local measurement, but it does give you that important vertical profile and satellite data. And satellite data has a relationship to the modeling because it also requires a similar radiative transfer model to retrieve chemical compounds and temperature from what the satellite of above the atmosphere sees. Yes, LiDAR, when the LiDAR is another instrument, it's been used both ground based and from satellites to detect dust and aerosol particles. Oh, and I have an ocean boy, one of the newer ocean boys pictured here. What the model does is take differential equations. And this is taking atmospheric equations or equations of fluid flow and that are written in terms of small changes or infinitesimal changes. And moving them forward in time, and that moving forward is called integrating in time. So you have the fluid flow dynamics, a whole domain of research on fluid dynamics there. Thermodynamics, which is the treatment of heat exchange, change in temperature with pressure. I think most of us have sprayed a compressed air can into a computer to remove dust. You probably should. And notice that after a few sprays, the can is cooled down. And this is because the air and expanding is doing work and that work comes at the expensive temperature. So as air rises in the atmosphere, it'll cool. And that's part of the thermodynamics. Processes of evaporation and convection that move air up from the surface and include formation of clouds when the air has enough moisture that it cools to its dew point. And the water vapor condenses and releases more heat, which allows the parcel to go up higher. And as I mentioned, the transport of sunlight and infrared radiation through the atmosphere, which is common to weather models, climate models, and retrieving data, retrieving properties of the atmosphere from satellite observations. What the satellite sees is just the infrared radiation, for example, at the top of the atmosphere in multiple wavelengths. And as Shiloh mentioned, including the influence of biological release of methane from agricultural fields from feedlots. I'll get to that in a moment. And one of the resources on that note card is FlexNet, which goes in and does just that. And on the website for this talk, one of the pictures, which I don't actually have in the talk, is of a tower to measure such flexes of gases from a surface. For numerical weather prediction, the atmosphere has limited predictability. And the theoretical limit has been determined to be about 14 days. You never have perfect initial conditions, and the model is an approximation. And probably the current practical predictability is 6 to 10 days. And some features can have significantly shorter predictability. So predictability isn't always just that 6 to 10 days. And I give an example on the next slide. Since the 1990s, weather prediction has gone from what was previously done was single runs of a weather model. And basically that was the basis for the forecast. Since the 1990s, the prediction is used ensembles of runs. This means maybe 100 runs of the model and the initial conditions, meaning everything on the current state of the atmosphere. And some of the parameters within the model are varied. So parameters generally come because on a 30 kilometer grid, you don't resolve turbulent diffusion. You don't resolve evaporation and then recondensation on the surface molecule by molecule with a net flow. And individual cumulus clouds aren't resolvable either. So there's a collection of parameterizations, which means approximations of some of the individual effects over the size of a model grid. And these generally have parameters that have probability distributions in themselves. And the parameters are basically determined by observations. So every individual sub-module gets looked at and determined and checked out how it compares with observations and setting the parameter values. But because the parameters have some uncertainty in making these ensemble runs, some of these parameters will be varied, which means sampling from the probability distribution. I don't know if that makes sense. And then the ensembles are further improved by using multiple models since different models created by different groups will be doing these parameterizations in slightly different ways. It helps expand the evaluation of the uncertainty. And it turns out that different places are using their own sort of weighted ensembles of different models. Like Florida State has one for looking at tropical storms. It's a weighted average. So I mentioned that I'd given an example of where predictability failed. I mean, just pretty much totally. During 15 to 16 October 1987, a violent storm tore into southern England. Steve Esther Brooke, in reviewing a talk by Tim Palmer, noted that the town of Seven Oaks where he used to live became the town of No Oaks. The wind was that strong, caused a number of deaths and millions of dollars of damage. I've set a links in that note card on the Great Storm of 1987. Early forecasts had indicated there might be a storm, and then later forecasts missed it. And this was before ensemble modeling. So it was single runs of the current models to predict the weather. One of the problems, there was a lack of observations offshore in the Atlantic. So the forecast basically said there'll be strong winds, but the real storm will be south of England. The real storm tore into both France and the south of England. Years later, probably in the 90s, when the early 2000s, there was a re-analysis or a re-prediction using technology. And a few of the runs, I think there was something like 100 runs, a few of the runs showed the severe storm. The conclusion was the storm was simply very difficult to predict. Current technology would include it as a possibility, but both the observations and the technology back then didn't exist back in 1987. So what happens when we reach the end of predictability in a numerical weather model? Does the model weather and observed weather diverge? Diverge means separate, go their own ways. It's sort of like a divorce. You're no longer able to predict whether next Saturday will be a good picnic day. Does the model produce garbage? Definitely not. It keeps on producing what looks like reasonable weather. And since a numerical prediction model doesn't have to include seasonality, it sort of like continues on as a weather of a single month. But a person on a parallel earth, see, there we get the parallel earth, where the model's weather couldn't tell from just the weather that they experienced, that they're not on our earth. Yes, it's different weather, but it's valid weather. Yes, Vic, weather is a two-week term at most. Climate is long-term and generally taken to be 30 years. And part of the reason for the 30 years is that the models produce features like eleno or inso, eleno-southern oscillation. They don't produce those features at the same time that the earth might produce them, but they do produce them with the right statistics. So because of ocean time scales, it takes about 30 years to determine the climate. That's why during the strong El Nino, skeptics sort of looked at the model result and said, well, the model result isn't doing this. And that's because climate models are not tracking these ocean oscillations in the same time as the earth, but they produce them. I have a couple of talks in that notecard that show model patterns that are emergent phenomena of the model. And the one by Steve Easterbrook shows model patterns and observed patterns at the same time. And so they're not identical because even though they might be at the same year time, the climate model is more like a parallel earth. So as we move to that last bit about what happens when we run a weather model longer than two weeks, there's a step toward climate modeling. So what's different about a climate model? Now we're doing the ensemble runs for 30 years each rather than two weeks or up to 100 years. We generally have less resolution on the horizontal grid, which also ties into less resolution on the vertical grid, 30 kilometers resolution instead of 12 or less. We now have to include the seasonal cycle. Since the earth orbits around the sun, it has summer at the north pole and south pole at different times. And also the distance of the earth from the sun changes slightly. We're basically at approaching an eccentricity, which is how the orbit differs from being circular. We're approaching a minimum in about 2,000 years, and the current eccentricity is historically small. Instead of the land and ocean surface just affecting the atmosphere, we now have to consider the way that the atmosphere affects the land surface coverage and the ocean. So there's a new feedback that the model now has to consider melting ice, changing plant coverage, changing moisture patterns. Shadow, America weather prediction only goes out two weeks, so the concentration of CO2 is not going to be changing appreciably in that two weeks. But as model runs are updated over time, the concentration of CO2 has to be updated correspondingly. In climate modeling, we're generally looking at a scenario for trace gas emission. This includes CO2 and methane. But the dynamical core radiation transport models and voice processes, evaporation, cumulus convection, we basically can inherit from a numerical weather prediction model. So, you know, if they're working in a numerical weather prediction, they're going to work in the climate model. In fact, it's easier because the resolution is less fine. When it gets down below 10 kilometers resolution, there's some additional considerations that come in and how things are treated. Yet for a global model, there aren't any edges. If you're running nested, limited region models, there are edges and basically the edges are handled by the less resolved global model. And how do we know it works? Well, the radiation transport models are used both in the America weather prediction models, which are, you know, within predictability are successful and are used in satellite retrievals. They use radio sands and local measurements to determine their accuracy. So, locally measuring to calibrate the radiation transfer model, and we know that works. Satellite retrievals have been validated by local measurements. Submodules in a climate model are compared with observations. And I've included the, in the note card, links to ARM, which is the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program that was started in 1989. Specifically to take coincident measures of atmospheric properties, moisture, clouds at multiple sites around the world, along with the measurements of the sunlight and infrared radiation. So that program has been used to look at model treatments and parameterizations within climate models. Another source of observations that's important is the biological flexes of gases like methane and CO2 from agricultural fields, from feedlots, and that, to cover that, I've included a link to Fluxnet and in more recently an ecological monitoring system called Neon. For the total model, there is statistical analysis of the model output and comparison of model control run statistics with observed statistics. Does it capture the rainfall patterns right and the seasonal temperature patterns is evaporating the right amount of moisture. So the models are validated in a sense both locally in the sub-processes and by looking at the overall statistics of output runs. And finally, there's a process of model-inner comparisons, sort of a bake-off called CMIP, climate model-in comparison, and I forget what the P is. So observation sets, they've been mentioning them on the atmospheric radiation measurement program with the co-located measurements of atmospheric properties and how they affect the sunlight and infrared radiation transport. Fluxnet field measurements of biological sources and sinks of gases, these are people going out into the field, building measurement towers, climbing up in the tropics into plant canopies and taking measurements up there. I read something recently about, you know, it took an hour to climb into the canopy to do the measurements. I also had a story told at a conference of a scientist getting an early morning phone call to rescue his instruments because they turned on the sprinklers. So he was out there in the field taking out the instruments while getting sprinkled with reclaimed groundwater. We now have autonomous ocean boys that can measure temperature in CO2 on floating platforms and Landsat for surface-type characteristics. Plus there's a whole, NASA has an Earth observing system, EOS, that measures various properties of the atmosphere. So these are your satellite measurements. I didn't, don't think I included that on the resource card, but I probably should have. So, Earth observing system. So in summary, weather prediction is an initial value problem and it depends very, very strongly on the current state of the atmosphere given it at the beginning of a prediction. And the prediction because of the sensitivity, non-linearity of the equation has a limited range into the future before it diverges from what's going on in the Earth. In my interest, climate models don't care terribly about their initial conditions. They run until, spin-up is the word used, until basically the initial conditions don't matter anymore and it's an energy input and distribution problem, what's known as a boundary value problem. It's solving a different type of problem. It's still producing what looks like weather. There hasn't been a way found other than running a continual stream of weather prediction and looking at the statistics and looking at where the model goes to do that. So then one looks at the long-term average of such weather in the climate. Both type of models are now done using ensembles of runs as well as runs by multiple models. And I hear these or actually read them on my NOAA forecast app on my phone when I look at the forecast discussion. The forecaster will mention specific models and this one seems to predict, like ECMWF is predicting, slightly warmer weather at the 850 millibar level. There are both differences and shared components between the models and the shared components in a sense help validate the physics that's gone into the models. When we're modeling sub-grid processes, those are partly from theory. For instance, evaporation depends on the wind speed and the saturated water vapor differences between the surface and the first atmospheric layer. So including those theoretical concepts with a constant which itself has a probability distribution. So modeling of sub-grid processes are partly from theory and partly from comparison with observations. And that's the talk. As far as other hard-to-predict stones that are missing forecasts, I'd have to look at the specifics and I haven't. I don't think weather models include earthquakes. Oh, chaos theory. Well, it's chaos theory, Ed Lorenz, did a lot of the early work on this, that limits the predictability of range and numerical weather prediction. That's the property that initially close initial conditions don't stay close or don't have to stay close. And after a while go off on totally different paths and that's where I use the concept of parallel earths. There's been modeling of other planets, Jim Pollock no longer living, and Carl Sagan, it's an atmospheric modeling of other planets. Basically, a climate model is operating within a strange attractor, which basically means that the weather doesn't just go off into something unreasonable. It's not like extrapolating a polynomial outside of its range of fitting, where it may look fine within the original data range, but go outside it and you get really strange meaningless stuff. A climate model is staying within an envelope, even though model runs with different initial conditions or slightly different parameters, won't have the same weather in the same place at the same time. So we're basically taking an ensemble model, taking tours around the strange attractor. Ah, yes. Tag, I'm reading something that in some ways the acceptance of the disinformation has little to do with actual climate and more attachment to what people consider their way of life. And of course now it's also become sort of a political identity. And simply correcting information without having become a trusted source of information just doesn't work as identity politics. What's sad is people are going to discover further on that the science was right after all. In some ways the COVID-19 pandemic is climate science on the short term because we've reached a situation where epidemiologists and healthcare practitioners give information that gets contradicted by people who don't have the expertise and are believed and those chickens are going to come home derused because the virus basically doesn't care. You can infect people before you show any symptoms, which is one of the difficulties with the virus, so you can't wait to quarantine people until they know they're sick. If the virus can infect more than one person, say two people, then it doubles sort of every infection period, the number of cases, until everybody has either had it or died. Part of the sheltering in place is to give time, but also an infected person has a limited time during which their things stay infected. And once that, they're no longer infectious. If they haven't infected anybody, you're on the way to killing off an outbreak. So there's science there and there's baloney just as there is in dealing with climate science. The theory that climate science is just used to get funding for doing climate science is that there are a lot easier ways to make money than trying to do it by writing climate research graphs. It takes a lot of dedication to do that because for any proposal written, except for very well-known people, your chances of getting funding are like 10%. So, plus the idea that thousands of scientists are all able to have a conspiracy plot together. Scientists tend to be kind of individualistic. If millions die, it is as much human action as anything else. There's the old saying that God helps those who help themselves. And I think the inverse is true too, that why rescue those who are insisting on local ignorance and not in touch with reality? As far as viruses go, both pigs and bats have lowered immune systems, which means they can exist as carriers of viruses without becoming all that sick. And with the current COVID virus, it's thought that it was carried in bats and transferred into another animal, possibly a penguin, before transferring into humans. Sometimes we're finding new viruses because we've pushed into natural terrain that we weren't in before. And there are species that are carriers of the virus. Viruses mutate regularly, so it's a matter of time before they manage to infect humans. Selling science is hard work because people make a lot of decisions by intuition or get feelings rather than rationally. Other programs like that say that, you know, get your science. NASA has had some, there's an organization of science educators who work to ensure that proper science is taught. Now, STAC workers tend to look at risk assessment as to insurance agencies. So you do have concern about sea level rise. Ontario also has tended to look at climate change as a risk-increaser. Similarly, Dan Cunningham in his book has done a lecture that's online on thinking fast and slow. Yep, it's a classic in influencing people in a sense that you have to build trust. And unfortunately people are trusting those who don't have their best interests in mind. Well thank you all for coming and participating and commenting and asking questions. And do use the resource note card if you want to look at things further. The two TED talks at the top of it are, you know, some great summaries. Karen Schmidt makes the point that models have skill and that's the real bottom line. It's not that models are correct because in this venue of atmospheric modeling, you're never going to be correct in the sense of an engineering, a fixed engineering problem. But it is important that a model have skill and give you information that you didn't have before, which is what's happening. I'll see you here.


6 Reasons to use flashcards when teaching teenagers and adults. This summary is focused on the use of flashcards with activities that the English teachers can use in the teaching learning process. These activities are created not only to present new vocabulary, and practice pronunciation, but also to get students to participate in class. The use of flashcards helps teachers to introduce a new word through an image and that image is about any vocabulary words. Moreover, the main focus is that flashcards engage the ability to think clearly which is considered efficient learning. The majority of this generation learns best by seeing the information in an example format. Students of all ages are far more likely to remember visuals rather than words. This technique will help increase not only their memory and vocabulary of school work but give them experience in the right direction. We will further look at the subject with 5 W 1 H rule. What, when, where, why, who and how? 1. What are flashcards? A flashcard or flashcard is a card bearing information, as words or numbers, on either or both sides, used in classroom drills or in private study. One side can have a question and an answer on the other side. Flashcards can bear vocabulary, historical dates, formulae or any subject matter that can be learned via a question and answer format. Flashcards are widely used as a learning drill to aid memorization. 2. When are flashcards used? Flashcards can be used when a learner is unable to grasp the meaning of a word. They can be an excellent learning and teaching tool, especially when introducing new vocabulary or drilling familiar words. Besides being used by the teacher, they can also be used in a variety of activities and even posted around the classroom for the reference of the students. 3. Where are flashcards used? Flashcards can be used at any point of time through a lesson and all stages of ESA. This method of ingraining memory is one of the most adaptable approaches to both beginners and adults. They are best used for studying, learning or reviewing vocabulary, drilling, engaging, activity, etc. 4. Why to use flashcards? Flashcards work well because they help you not only memorize facts quickly but to process and store the information over the long term.  Both paper and digital cards are accessible, and you can also make your cards related to a subject or tailored to the lesson being thought. 5. Who can benefit from using flashcards? One effective attractive aid in teaching is the use of flashcards. Students, adults and young learners who remember things by seeing visual aids are more motivated to learn when the teacher incorporates tools in the classroom. One of the most famous approaches to learning English vocabulary is to utilize flashcards. They are a great resource since they help learners memorize vocabulary words both rapidly and effectively. They are also adaptable to various age groups. This being said, flashcards benefit all age groups. 6. How are flashcards used best? Flashcards are not to be created at the last minute. Whatever method you choose, always have the cards ready prior to the day of the lesson, best a day before so one can review the sequence of its use. Using flashcards brings out the best results when reviewing a lesson, teaching vocabulary, etc. It can be effective in drilling exercises and can also be used for games in groups or pairs.  Apply now. It is understood that many resources can be found with the web links provided by ITTT. It is good to keep in mind that the teacher should be comfortable with the usage of flashcards and other visual tools to enhance the learning outcome. Speak with an ITTT advisor today to put together your personal plan for teaching English abroad. Send us an email or call us tollfree at 1-800-490-0531 to speak with an ITTT advisor today.