And we're live everybody welcome to digital asset news and not financial vice This is our sixth episode from when we started amazing how time flies to my right We've got guy from coin bureau and of course Ben from into the crypto verse gentlemen welcome Thanks for having us Rob. Yeah, of course, and you know, it's if you don't I don't know Maybe you've living under rock and haven't seen these two gentlemen, but here are their respective YouTube channel Ben's Powerhouse it puts out some really great information, especially with all the things that he does on his website Which I steal religiously and all the information he has and then of course guy I've got two channels guy over at coin bureau and then coin bureau eclipse So if you haven't checked them out links in the description. So gentlemen Let's talk about it today and get into it. So the first thing is this there's four different questions I had and the kind of there's a lot of nuances to it. So the first one is this This bull run it kind of caught some people by surprise, of course, some people said that they knew at the whole time I think they're a bunch of liars or whatever and And it really comes out of this. Can we sustain this little bull run? Is this still a bear a bull trap and what can we see throughout 2023 next one is What are Bitcoin the crypto markets biggest challenges to overcome and it's actually foster growth This could be in any kind of direction you want third It's all about the exit strategy So I know we're far away from the blow-off top and a parabolic bull run But do you have a plan right now to take some profits when we get to that stage as opposed to just buying the dip? Or are you one of those diamond hands forever people and then lastly since we've all been through multiple bear and bull markets all of us What kind of insights gonna give to the people especially to the crypto class of 2021 and then of course we'll do a little Q&A at the very end. So first things first This is gonna be difficult. So This many bull run that we're going on right now Like I don't know what's are we still up in the in the market itself Or do we take a little bit of a dip with the earnings report coming out yesterday? I don't really I haven't really taken a peek at the prices lately I mean the NASDAQ is down But the last time I checked the NASDAQ was on like a one and a half percent or something at least in after-hours Or an early trading, but I don't I mean for the most part. Oh now it's down 2% Okay, so it has taken it has taken some a lot of a hit, but the Dow Jones hasn't really taken much of a hit and The S&P is down about 1% Yeah, and then of course, how are we doing? Crypto is is dipping It's yeah, certainly a noticeable dip, but yeah, just in just obviously in the last kind of half hour since that jobs data came out Yeah, and that's yeah, and this is the big thing because like and we'll get into this so I Have been a pretty big bear lately Bearish sentiment, but I mean with the rate hike slowing the housing market sustaining inflation reducing The unemployment rate is declining. We'll take a look at it real quick And then guy did a video of just recently China reopening That's on the positive. Are we in for a soft landing? Is that what it looks like and and just to to break it all down we take a look here with The unemployment rates so we just saw today We are down to three point four percent from three point five three point seven from October three point six three point five and now three point four Also, we take a look at the housing market purchase only housing price index I mean we took a dip there, but now we're going up again, and then we take a look at personal savings I mean, of course in 2021 or 2021 the coronavirus it was Astronomical, but if people are have bottomed out and now they're starting to save a little bit more And then also we take a look at the sentiment Michigan consumer sentiment index I mean that took an all-time not an all-time low But a pretty big dip in June and we're right back up to where we before and then of course China reopening like I said guy in your video, so the thing is Are we on the precipice of something big and can we sustain this throughout 2023 a guy? I'll start with you. There's a lot to go over, but this is what we got Yeah, yeah, I'll focus on a few things. I mean first up I'm amazed that the kind of mini bull run we've had over the past few weeks. I'm amazed that that's been sustained at all Given the given the outlook. Okay.  You can't argue with with some of the statistics out there inflation is coming down And it's clear that that what Jerome and co at the Fed have been trying to do is is working and I think I remember seeing recently manufacturing output in the US is is kind of down as well Which again suggests that that that this is working. That's what the Fed is trying to do It is it is and Jerome has said so it is trying to suppress growth in order to in order to crush inflation And so that appears to be working and obviously we're getting I think Bloomberg the other day said Something along the lines of this may that you know With with the latest with the latest rate hike just the other day We we may be in for a not so much a Fed pivot as a Fed pirouette Which I thought that's pretty good Yeah, I quite like that So I think yeah, there's obviously obviously the markets are very optimistic Given this again. I thought Jerome in his press conference was he came across to me kind of fairly unequivocal I mean, he he said in in black and white. We don't we don't plan to to lower rates this year So yeah, well, I'm expecting I'm expecting another rise another 25 point rise to well That would take us to 5% in next month, wouldn't it at the next meeting? And then I kind of imagine that's where we'll stay for for for the time being for the for the probably the rest of the year Well, that's that's certainly what Jerome is implying And and obviously, you know, there's certain things that the PCE Was it last week the PCE came out 3.9, which is obviously well below well below interest rates now, right? So, yeah, I mean, there's there's there's certainly there's certainly positive signs And I guess I guess the market is taking is taking a lot of heart from the fact that this is working However, I think there are I think there are so many things and as you say things like housing seems to be holding up We've obviously had this this Positive jobs jobs growth today. So the economy seems to be taking it in its stride and Of course, I mean, I am looking at things like we had these very very disappointing tech earnings just yesterday, wasn't it? I mean, these were I think those were alphabets Googles Google alphabets were they their worst ones since worst earnings since 2016 Does that does that sound right? Well, first time they've missed I think since 2016 first time they'd missed Okay, but again a lot of the misses are just revised. I mean the estimates are often revised down before they go out anyway, so Yeah, so yeah, so like yeah, so is it I mean it looks like it's pretty positive like I said But you know, you never know with the markets. I mean, can we really keep this going? I think that would be the big question Can we keep this going 2023 and even if we take a look at like the yield curve? I mean that that's been inverted for quite some time We can take a look at just like what you talked about with the earnings the miss earnings report I think they're gonna have some more coming out So, yeah What do you think? Yeah, I think I mean it's an interesting one with the yield yield curve Someone pointed out to me yesterday that Campbell Harvey the guy who popularized this this this idea of an inverted yield curve leads to a recession He's apparently now said that this time this time is different for the first time ever So yeah, maybe that that that's that seems to support perhaps the soft landing theory Yeah, it is an odd one that and I mean obviously people are people are buying bonds But people are buying longer term bonds aren't they which suggests that a lot of market outlook is is not great for the short term So I think that I think many people still believe there is a recession kind of imminent and Of course, there are still there are still all these all these big macro factors I think the war in Ukraine I mean that is now approaching that's now approaching its first anniversary, isn't it which is just crazy and and that seems to be Escalating I mean from what I can gather It's gonna take it's gonna take a bit of time for all these tanks and things to get there But it does seem that that is poised to to really get a lot lot more intense Maybe as the as the weather kind of gets better. So there's that and then of course, we've also yeah I got this this this deal of China reopening which I Think it could it could fall either way on the one hand and the one hand is supposedly I think going to be good for supply chains Unclog unclog those a bit more But likely bad for inflation a Chinese citizens have around 700 billion dollars worth of excess savings to spend So Yeah, so that's that's a lot of money kind of waiting to sort of crash over the crash over the economy Whether they do actually go out and spend that is is another matter But that's certainly something that's that's concerning me for that for the next few months ahead the well Well, I'll say this one last thing one more thing China is crushing us on our savings account is dwindling But of course we're going up a little bit and then before I get to Ben I will say that you know the market doesn't like Some type of instability or uncertainty and I will say that as we move forward in the Ukraine war, you know America just said they're gonna Ship over their tanks. It seems like the more we get into it the more comfortable We get the more it's not like this this type of thing that shakes the markets again We were in Afghanistan for two decades and it didn't seem like when we first went in and shook the markets But as time went on we're just like well, that's just how the world goes So not that it's the right thing or the wrong thing just saying it seems like the market's like yeah, whatever So Ben it's amazing how quickly they they shrug sort of thing you get used Get used to these sort of things, you know this this huge land war raging in Europe that threatens us all and it's like Oh, that's yeah, it's been going on for a year now, and it's it's no longer making the headlines Yeah, they won't care Fortunately, all right. So Ben so guy that's Maybe we're looking at a softer landing, but then do you have anything that could counteract that? Is there something that we're missing? Well, I mean I would start off by saying the path to a hard landing is not normally obvious Normally, it's a process of thinking it'll be a soft landing first. I mean, it's not I Think most of the time people's base case is not a hard landing But you know, we do get a hard landing every every ten years or so. So there's something that we have to we have to think about With that in mind, you know, my my general expectation for 2023 remains unchanged. I think it's the year that will Rack both the bulls and the bears and you know, this is what we saw in 2019. This is what we saw in 2015 Yeah, you have your bear market years of 2014 2018 2022 and then you get these years that come after it That are incredibly choppy and we we're constantly chasing whatever the new narrative is, right? So for instance, like, you know, right now we're chasing the narrative that inflation is coming back down and That it'll be a soft landing, but who knows what narrative will be chasing later this year So I mean my general expectation is that, you know, this current run, I have no idea how long it's going to last I imagine it's going to go on until either inflation It'll keep it'll likely continue until you either see cracks in the US economy or You see any signs of inflation returning. So until that happens, I imagine you could still see sustained upside and risk assets But there are risks associated, I think with it and and one of those risks risks are Inflation coming back history shows us that inflation is not something that goes away easily And this is why Powell, you know refuses to declare victory on it Now he did mention, by the way, that they are seeing their first signs of disinflation and the minute he said the word disinflation the market just like spiked upwards But the problem is that He's you know, he's done his homework. He knows what happens when when central banks declare Victory on inflation too soon and what happens, right? It's it's inflation just comes back And then it becomes even harder to get rid of so Today we saw the unemployment rate come in at a secular low and it hasn't been this low. In fact, since I believe 1969 We saw I believe we saw the unemployment rate 3.4% Now what's interesting if you look at the S&P what the S&P did when the S when it got to 3.4% it rallied Over the next three months By about 9% or so 9 or 10% but after that three month period was over what happened it then drops 35-40% over the next year and a half And so we let's ask ourselves what would cause that I mean an unemployment rate at 3.4% It it would seem like you know, the US economy is strong Right and one of the things I've said many times is you know, you can find the signs of a recession in a lot of ways And in a lot of different places Except for the one place that matters and that's the labor market right the labor market is the only place that you really don't see a sign of a recession But within the business cycle the labor market is the last thing to move so we always have to remember that as well It's a it's a very much of a lagging indicator so One thing that I think that is the it's the main left-tail risk that we have to consider at this time is and this goes back to what pal said the Goods and service or services ex-housing core services ex-housing That inflation has remained relatively stickier than some of the other areas and so The unemployment rate at 3.4% I imagine is going to potentially renew some Some fears of rising inflation again Just because you still have a historically tight labor market at least going back for the last like 50 years or so so What I'm what I'm I guess the main left-tail risk is if you actually go look at the the Cleveland the Cleveland Fed now cast They're actually Forecasting that headline inflation is going to go up point six three percent Month over month at the next report for reference what it was last month was negative point one percent So they're forecasting it's going to go up point six percent point six three percent at the next CPI report I have no idea if that's accurate or not the Trading Economics website still says negative point one is what that? Yeah, you have the website up you can see the CPI for January twenty twenty three point six three percent That's month over month by the way Wow, that's the risk, you know and and so the risk here is if inflation were to come back at all And not and I'm not talking about new highs I I I do sincerely doubt that inflation is going to be going to new highs anytime soon But if we have that risk at all of it starting to come back up and and remaining somewhat stochastic not moving down in a linear fashion I could see the next the new narrative Chasing as well. Maybe inflation is not going down in a linear way And maybe the terminal rate has not been fully priced in and if you look at at the the CME group the website Now if you look at June now, they're saying the most likely scenario is the Fed funds rates going to be at five point two five percent meaning they're now expecting Two more twenty five basis point rate hikes So one of the things I've said I'll just continue to say I think 2023 is going to be the year where You know, we'll have rallies and and we'll also see those rallies get faded and and it'll probably take a year Or so is that happening before we see a rally that can really take us to new highs? That's my general expectation in 2022 what did I say? I mean, I just said cash was king constantly in 2022. That's I mean in the bear market cash is king You know, I mean it just is um In 2023, I think we see fate I you know, I think we see various phases where at some points you get really nice rallies that can take out prior highs Or at least local highs not all-time highs But you'll also see I think you'll also see those rallies faded as we as we chase whatever the most recent narrative is going to be And I think that a lot of those narratives are just going to be based around, you know, is inflation going down in a sustained way Is the terminal rate actually priced in and so on and so forth So, you know for me whether to specifically answer your question with regards to Bitcoin can this rally be sustained? I mean, I think it'll be sustained until until you see true deterioration in the US economy via labor market Or you see inflation go back up. We have another inflation report what in a week and a half So if inflation comes in cold then Bitcoin I think can keep going up I think inflation go comes in hot then then it'll it'll likely take a hit to risk assets But even if we even if we come back down We can go on another rally later this year, right? It's what 2015 was so 2015. We had two rallies That were both faded 2019. We had one massive rally that was faded So I think it'll probably be somewhere in between that and then hopefully by 2024 2025 We actually get into a rally that can take us to new highs Yeah, I gotta tell you like the things you guys just said it makes me realize like just run this this specific timeline and and just to get into your point been about, you know things just coming back This is what Jerome's trying to I mean he's really trying to avoid this happened in the 70s You know we had inflation and it went back down and then they're like, okay, cool. We're out of here We did our job Congratulations mission accomplished and then just back up because they stopped cutting rates So at some point they're like and this is what I think drum is trying to to get away from But if we can do that for this year if it's a hard if it's a soft landing or a hard landing It really does come down to the cycles that we're used to right so we're have it all starts with the having having all time I dip reset 1670 and the same thing Stinging things is happening right now at 2023. So if we go through a choppy year like we think we're gonna do it Bears get wrecked bulls get wrecked Unless you dollar-cost average and try to take some profits like I've been doing hey Then maybe 2024 25 96 will work itself out But that it looks like it could but it's anybody's guess am I off there? No, I mean normally you have a recovery year after a bear market year Right you just kind of go sideways for a while and I mean right now. It's up only right But we'll see I mean I don't think it's gonna be up only all year But you know, I mean, it's it's nice. It's nice having some some some Bitcoin right now You know, that's the only thing I much really have so Missing out on the octcoin gains of course, but yeah, I mean I'm I think Bitcoin will will Likely come out stronger at the end of this year after a sort of weathered weathered storm Well, that would that would leave me the mind that the next question we talked about which was this which is well If we're gonna do that, what's the what's the challenges we have to overcome in crypto and this could be anything? I mean this could be are we looking at legislation? Are we looking at the sentiments? Are we looking at the macro? We look the macro fact is pretty pretty hard, but Since been since you're up there, I'll start with you and then and guy. I'll have the last word on this one Yeah, I don't really so the sentiment is something I think we easily overcome because the sentiment is just given by Price action, right? Like everyone gets excited when the price goes up Everyone that's when the price goes down. So if yeah, I mean look if the price were to just kind of shot between 20 to 30k For the next six months or something you'll see Sentiment get better and better. I think I mean it's just a matter of like not watching the price drop every other month, you know I think probably the biggest things would be to see the yeah I mean to see the macro look a little bit better and you know, you mentioned earlier We have the inversion of the yield curve and that's one of the things I've spoken about before as well But one of the things about the inversion of the yield curve that it tells us is at least historically is that upon the inversion We're not in a recession, right? So so you know when you're when you see the inversion You're usually not in a recession After right on inverts that you get into one and you actually go. How do you get into one? Well, the Fed has to aggressively car rates. Why would they aggressively car rates? Well because they broke something in the economy And they are you know, they're forced to so Yeah, I mean, I think that the macro is something that we could you know Seeing inflation much lower would it would really help I mean if you can get inflation if the Fed can be Successful in their goals of getting inflation back down to say 2% I think that would be very bullish for crypto because it doesn't mean it means the Fed doesn't have to be nearly as hawkish on their policy They don't have to have interest rates quite as high.  It's like, what is that? That no one has even heard of Yeah, I think I think The sentiment returning will will sort of just come back as long as the price can can sort of hold itself at higher levels Probably the improving macro would be the would be the best thing the and then the other thing is, you know, the stock market You know, you would like to see the stock market really be more Confirming of a new of a new sustainable market to go up to new all-time highs and I think there are some people that Are already convinced of that. I think I would require a bit more convincing Especially with earnings reports coming out is as poorly as they have recently Counterpoint to that is that the stock market normally bottoms before earnings bottom So I guess it depends on how do we think earnings are up so we got to get are they gonna continue to For the next like 12 months or is this as bad as it gets because again the market is ultimately forward-looking so Yeah, I would say it's a combination of a lot of these things. I mean, I think you need to see the macro improves some I mean, by the way, the macro wasn't that great in 2019 either and And by 2020 we had a recession By the way in 2019 the yield curve inverted I don't know if you guys remember the old curve inverted in 2019. We had a very brief recession in 2020 Of course, I'm not saying that it did that recession per se but we did have a recession and And then we were off to the races when the Fed went back to aggressive QE and printing trillions of dollars So I think we're in a in a somewhat similar scenario As 2019 but I I would say it's a bit a bit worse just because inflation is also Somewhat persistent and that wasn't an issue we had back then But you know you if you roll the clock forward another year year and a half I think I think things are gonna look a lot better and and And that'll also be nice because it'll it'll correspond to the halving and that sort of stuff So just a bit more time is probably what we need to To see sentiment really turn around. Yeah, a bit more time for me to fill my bags. Yeah, so So so guy if it would end that that's it was interesting what we talked about before guy The the gentleman you talked to about the the yield curves how the one of Bennett said well Maybe this time is different So I mean is this time different and and so what is that? Not of that's different, but what's the biggest challenge then you know to get over this hump right now? Just like what I what I have been I? Think I'm gonna I want to focus about on a couple of other challenges I think crypto is facing at the moment and I think it kind of for me It's kind of swinging. It's like a pendulum swinging between these two points. I think on the one hand Crypto has got this big problem Around regulation at the moment or should I should I say more accurately around regulatory clarity? Right, and then I think at the other side at the other swing of the pendulum I think there's this issue of of education of how well people understand crypto What it is how it works and crucially I guess how they perceive it as well And I think you've got so I think that's been kind of thrown into relief in the last in the last few days Because we've had Charlie Munger come out as reliably as he always does you know he sort of emerges like a tortoise every few months and sort of Croaks something about Bitcoin being the root of all evil and then goes back into a shell or something But anyhow, so yeah, I think crypto has this true a two-fold problem and I think it's important to draw a distinction between Regulation and regulatory clarity and this is something I was on I was on a panel here in Dubai a couple of nights ago and one of my fellow panelists made this point very eloquently said you know We talk about regulation for crypto and how important it is The traditional finance had plenty has plans had regulation for decades And it didn't stop the likes of Bernie Madoff. Did it? It didn't stop the likes of wire card and all these others so I think reg but what's more important I think is is regulatory clarity in order for the industry to grow in order for Investment to come in especially from institutions who are on the sidelines and and I don't know if you saw that report That's just just come out today or or yesterday about how Institutional investment in crypto is way down. It was way down in January My point is that I think crypto needs to see some sort of Regulatory clarity at least for these for these bigger players Especially to be interested to invest in and help fund future development of the space so I think that's that's one thing that I think crypto needs and I'm not sure it's gonna really get it this year. Maybe in Europe with Micah Which is obviously being pushed back to April. I'm not very confident of seeing anything much in the US The UK is kind of making steps towards that However, but at the other end of the at the other swing of the pendulum We've also got this idea about about education about how people perceive crypto and understand it And I think in a way, this might actually be more important Something that we need to focus on more and I don't just say that as someone who's in the crypto education business But I think you know going back to what Charlie Munger said, you know There's the crypto still really has this image problem and people are still so skeptical of it And I don't think even with regulatory clarity. I don't think we could expect big institutional inflows You know smart money if you want to call it that I don't think we could expect that to come and support an industry That doesn't have anyone using it. So I kind of feel maybe we should be focusing on Trying to on trying to make people understand what crypto can give them the benefits of crypto why it's why it's not all one giant Ponzi scheme and Because then we can build an ecosystem then we can build an ecosystem of Of things that people actually use and again This is something I think is a generally positive story that went unreported last year About how crypto adoption across the world especially in in countries that are you know That are seeing their national currencies devolved the likes of them Turkey Egypt Argentina all these all these sorts of places But I think we need an ecosystem that regulatory clarity can then come in Shine some light on and let more investment come in does that does that make any sense? I'm 100 them. This is what I've been I've been harping on before I'm glad I'm glad you said it more eloquently than I could because when I talk about regulation everybody's like We hate Rob. He's talking about regulation. He's one of them and everything's like an FBI agent or something like that No, I think we need just just some clarity and I think I see this is the thing This is why I like having both you on because I always learn something about what's happening because for the institutional investors I was unaware of this report that came out that says that everything's slowing down because before From Coinbase when they put out their quarterly letters, they would talk about how you know institutional investment is up It's up and it would be Way higher than just then just retail. So if we're taking a look at institutional sliding down That's something to be concerned about but it didn't seem like it affects the markets too much because right now We're actually had a nice little rally. So was that more retail than what it was maybe I mean, we're only a trillion something market cap. It's not like we are like way ahead So what you said guy makes total sense. It's not regulation shutting down Bitcoin and Ethereum not that they can anyhow But it's about giving us clarity. What's a commodity? What is a security? What is a currency? Just get a get that right and then talk to the centralized players the exchanges and make them not commingle funds because I hate putting my funds into an exchange and then they go and buy a condo in The in the Bahamas for their mom and dad. That's just something I just not big on. I don't know if I'm wrong there So guy it makes total sense good Yeah, it's Yeah, it and and again coming back to something else. I've talked about before I think you know this idea of industry standards that the Eric Voorhees is kind of championed in the wake of FTX and all that you know an industry that an industry that kind of self-regulates in a way that doesn't that doesn't put up with with Entities who are you know not doing it not doing it the right way because again and it goes back to this idea regulatory clarity like Regulations will not stop will not stop scammers. They will not stop, you know bad actors or anything like that but at least Clarity will let proper companies flourish and I think it was I think we were talking about this Maybe it was last week when we were kind of talking about securities designations as well And I think it was Ben Was it you Ben who just sort of said well, yeah Like okay, if if something is designated as security then that's that could be a disadvantage It could it could hinder that sort of project, but they'll work it out You know that they'll they'll figure something out, but they need to know one way or another It can't just be sort of well. It might be a security. It might not be you'll find out in due course Yeah, you'll find out. We'll let you know that type of thing. Okay All right, so move on the next one a good answer is everybody so Failing to plan is planning to fail. This is what I've talked about in the past, but It might sound odd, but I think the parabolic load on it. It'll sneak up on all of us It's for some of us not all of us. So what's your profit taking plan on crypto? And this is moving into like the 2024 maybe 2025 season Or are you going to diamond hands forever and never sell at anything guy? I'll start with you because we just we just stopped off The classic the classic Bitcoin maxi trope of diamond hands and living on a mattress in a complete and in an otherwise completely unfurnished room No, I like my creature comforts a bit too much for that Yeah, yeah, I think this I mean I want to learn I want to learn lessons of past bull markets We you know in this next bull market because I've not always been great at taking profits I have taken profits in the past. I'm it's something that I'm getting better at But I am I am planning to take some profits. How I'm gonna do that exactly. I'm not sure I don't know whether I don't know whether I'm gonna be DCAing out rather than DCAing in I'm not sure whether I'm gonna set a level yet That I'm that I'd be looking to exit at but one thing that did strike me when I was when I was thinking about this earlier was I want to you know, if here I am here I am in Dubai if I find you know during the next bull run if I see a nice house for sale and the and the estate agent or the owner is willing to take payment in crypto then I'm gonna I'm gonna buy it because because I Think I think it can fall between these these two poles like this idea of hodling hodling on forever I don't really agree with obviously. I don't want to sell everything I want to keep a nice nest egg of crypto for the future. I you know, there's I'm never gonna I'm never gonna sell out of crypto completely But I must say I'm warming more and more to the idea of using Bitcoin for what it was designed to be used for as a as a medium of exchange Right and and swapping that out for another asset like a roof over my head Which would be which would be great and I I like this idea and I hope we see more of it I hope we see people actually using it because I think if we get stuck into this HODL mentality and everyone just just clutching on to what they've got for dear life then Then it's just it's just speculation. It has no it has no use beyond that I think it's it's kind of up to us really to to use this to use this stuff for what for what it was Intended. That's a good point actually. Yeah, so okay Yeah, it's a good point because that's if we if for those at home Sorry, I'm getting Ben's cough. I think for those at home. If you haven't read the Bitcoin white paper of Sintoshinakamoto It's only nine pages. It's very fast and you can take a look at it and all the people that talk about well It's this or it's that that's not what it was designed for I mean, we can say what it is now, but it is for a medium of exchange a peer-to-peer exchange And I'll just leave it at that but then what do you got as far as like getting into you know Moving into 2024 and profiting because you're gonna start dollar-cost averaging, you know later on Even more so so how do you take some profits moving out?   I mean, there are risks out there if inflation comes back If you know if the terminal right rate is not priced in but Until until you see a material change and one of those two things, you know Bitcoin of course still has it reserves the right to to go as high as it wants to go I mean if look if medic can go up to x and and Netflix can go up to x and why can't Bitcoin, you know So I think about So I would say it doesn't have to be 2024 It could be even this year depends on on just how heated the rally gets I would say I would just DCA out according to the risk levels that I use I mean, I have various risk levels and stuff that I I use. That's what I used in 2019 That's what I used in early 2021 Unfortunately, the second move in 2021 Was not picked up as easily from that stuff because it was sort of just like the bounce to the same levels Rather than going to any sustained new highs. So it didn't work out as well But the first rally in 2021 just sort of slowly DCAing out Worked out quite well because then we we ended up dropping 50% in the summer We had that summer low and you know, everything dropped like at least 50 or somewhere around 50% or so So I would say I would just DCA out according to the risk levels But the other side of the thing is you can't sell what you don't have right so I don't really have much. I mean, I do have some altcoins, but not not much. I mean, it's it's just sort of like relics of You know things that I had from years and years ago You know stuff that's being staked and whatnot I've I've mainly just bought bitcoin for the last Six months seven months. I haven't really bought anything else in crypto So, you know, I I could always sell some bitcoin if it moves higher, but right as I said before I mean, I you can't sell what you don't have. So I know you I know rob has been Micro DCAing the the altcoins. So, um, you know, you'll be able to sell those potentially. I won't because I don't have any But yeah, so, I mean, I you know bitcoin is is if it if it if it gets into one of these more sustained rallies Even in 2023 like that's not discounted completely. I mean it could happen Um Then I would you know, I would I would take profit It's just like, you know, just like in 2019 when when we rallied up 4x in in like for three or four months So It's just something to consider. You know, you never know when the bubble is going to come you never know and Even in 2021 or even in 2020 It's not like we knew that it was going to go from 3k to 64k, you know, I mean that was not It was not a common theory not not not that quickly Anyway, I think a lot of people thought it was going to get to 64k, but just not not as soon as it did um And we also I think a lot of people didn't think that that was going to be the top and it ended up more or less Just being the top So again, don't ever let a good bubble go to waste if you see a rally this year You have to take advantage of it And And if it and if we just come back down and we spend another six months at lower prices Then you just get into the market again, right? And you you slowly you just wait for the for the bubble to come Um, and I would say another thing too. It's okay to be bearish On something and still accumulate it, right? I mean that's what it's essentially what I did for all 2019 and even 2020 I was like, all right. Well, every you know, everything seems like it sucks, right? The economy seems awful Uh, but you know, if there is another bubble, then I want to be a part of it Okay, now if if if crypto goes up again, I want to be a part of it So, um, I I still I I still think the same way today except right now I am my crypto portfolio is just mostly mostly bitcoin By the way, it was also mostly bitcoin in 2019 too when when we had essentially a bitcoin only rally to 14k I mean the other altcoin the altcoin market did okay But I mean a lot of the actually a lot of the altcoin market ended 2019 Lower than where they started Uh, whereas bitcoin ended up ended at about 2x higher than where it started Uh, so that's something something to think about as well. So yeah, I mean just dca out according to the risk levels just like you might dcan when the market is is turning lower and um And ignore the noise Yeah, exactly. And I would so I gotta agree with you on these ones. All those points are good. There's uh, I like this I can't I got in trouble last time from your from your uh From your users when I showed this so I'll show it again now. I'm just kidding This is uh time and risk bands and there's another there's another chart Which shows just when bitcoin is in these risk bands and when he when he go to like these risks these high risk areas 18 days this is when things are like Pretty much a blow off top If you can take a look at this and of course this is on another another screen You can kind of just tell like just how risky things are getting and then for me like I use I use this Uh on my website Uh, this is a shameless plug the anti-descripto 100 for it This was my exit strategy that I used last time what I'm going to use this time my cycle tops I'm using from looking to bitcoin bicycle top and up l again using bends time and risk And then bottom callers and there's this video there. So for me. It's just I used idola cost average in last time. I laddered out and I Just like like what guy I was talking about I got a little bit too greedy And I didn't sell when I was supposed to sell I sold probably 50 percent of the things I was supposed to sell and I screwed up on the other 30 and this time I'm just gonna I have a plan in place. I'm gonna stick to that plan and that be damned I'm never gonna hit the top and I'm never gonna hit the bottom I think that's just as I'm just gonna try to get around if I can get 70 percent or 80 percent. I'm very happy That's about it. Hey rob. I on your website. I saw that you had the uh the pie cycle top indicator on there Is that right? So that's an interesting it kind of reminds me of something that the guy was saying earlier So that indicator Basically nailed the first time right so I think it I think it signaled within one or two days But it's also an instance where the person who created it said it wasn't going to you know They basically walked it back and said it wasn't going to Going to actually predict the top and I mean in the end that that was uh It was right because we ended up going to 69 k right Yeah, but we also had a really big pullback It kind of reminds me of of the person who invented the yield curve saying all right Well, it's worked for the last eight times, but it's not going to work this time You know kind of thing like where you you you can kind of trick yourself into thinking like this is the one time It's not going to work just because it feels like it's not going to Um, so we'll see. I mean in the end we'll see if the yield curve is uh is a predictor or not so far It's it's always predict. It's I mean the the inversion of the three month in the tenure I was like I think a hundred percent track record On yeah on predicting it so yeah, and I that's what I when I got into it And I think we're all on the same page when I get into it I was like there's no way it's going to repeat again, and I'll be darned if it didn't repeat again And it repeated almost perfectly. I mean this one's a little bit different We had a couple of a double top, but I mean it still worked out Yeah, no, I mean I think the piecicle. I think it's a great indicator I mean it it got it within within three days, which is what you know, I think it was designed to do Uh But again, I think that you know when you create an indicator And and it gets close to like triggering you often second guess the validity of the indicator because now you're like, all right Well, maybe I underestimated what it could do or over, you know something like that I mean, I think we all have the tendency to do that like when you're when you're thinking rationally Um, you can kind of say all right. Well, it'll it'll go up to these levels But once you get to those levels everyone thinks it's going to go higher This is perfect. This is a perfect segue So just like what we were talking about we kind of made guy talked about you know We shouldn't have you know, he should have sold more Then you talked about some things This is the next one. What kind of insights can you give in the because the class of 2021? To me is kind of like the class of 2017 2018 without the monstrous centralized exchange screw ups So what kind of insights can you give these guys because it's kind of hard Just to watch your value go from like bitcoin's going to a million dollars Everybody says it is to like what the heck just happened now.  It's really it's nothing more complicated than that Um And I I say this is somewhat being self-aware of what I what I'm saying myself like, you know I I would constantly outline the risks involved uh, like in you know resurgent inflation or um, you know under underestimating the terminal rate for the Fed But the one thing I I've seen many many times and you know Witnessed it myself many many times is that you know bears can sound smart or a little you know pessimists can sound smart Which you know equates to more bears But the rules and the ultimate ones who usually get rich it's because they you know, they just remain optimistic. So You know, I would say don't don't mistake Understanding what the risks are or you know weighing what the risks are In terms of like, you know, whether you should have a position or not, you know Because at the end of the day, I think that time is is sort of what what bails the crypt ever sound It's the it's the recurring cyclical behavior of of emotions You know that sort of that depression that fear stage and that height euphoria stage And right now, I mean my my best interpretation right I could be wrong. I've been wrong about a lot of things So Let's not let's not forget that but um, my best interpretation is that we're just in a in a phase right now where The market's going to chop around for the better part of the year going to go up for a while going to go down for a while And it'll make people exhausted by the end of the year and um And then you know by the time you get out into into new all-time highs It a lot of people will forget a lot of the lessons that they learned in the 2022 bear market, right? They just simply forget those lessons and they get drawn into the hype again thinking it's only ever going to go up forever So I would say, you know, don't forget the lessons that you've learned If your portfolio is down Usually time helps cure that as long as it's not just a degen point portfolio filled with micro you know full micro caps If it's the blue chips like bitcoin and ethereum Which I mean to be completely honest I'm underweight ethereum just because I think bitcoin's gonna outperform it right now, but if it's if it's the blue chips history shows us that uh, you know That eventually you should you should be seeing better times. It's just a matter of time It could take another two two years could take another three years, but um Lots of history shows us so I would say just uh, try to be patient wait and um And yeah, remember that the optimists tend to get rich and the pessimists Sounds work. I did I did like that phrase what you said last time. I'm like, oh good.  All right. So guys Same question for you I want to pick up on on on what ben was saying About time because I think that's I think that's a hundred percent correct And I think one of the big big problems in crypto at the moment Which let's face it has been around for a long time is that the industry is full of so many people Who are you know, who are the kind who market crypto as one big get rich quick scheme and the emphasis is on Is on quick, you know, it's like you got to get in now You know, it's like, hey, I made x million overnight doing this that the other And you know, we all know we all know who those people are and and how they operate and it's it's a huge problem Because it's it gives it gives people new to the space this impression that you don't have time you have to act right now And that is that that isn't true And two things I'll say about those people is a lot of them aren't nearly as wealthy as they make out. I know that for a fact And I know it's because guy meets them. All right and um You know, their their whole business model is kind of predicated on this idea of you know of other people's fomo get in now Get in now, you know, don't um use my buy bit link, etc. etc So I think it's about it's about filtering out all that noise Which is what it is and and consider the fact that really the the wealthiest people out there the people who are Really rich who have actual money in the bank These guys have been on the whole playing the game for a long long time and they know it's a long game And they know that get rich quick is is not something that that generally happens. Um That's not to say it's it's never happened before that's not to say it hasn't happened in crypto because it has but People shouldn't look at it like that crypto Crypto investing is a long game, too Okay, the root you can get bigger rewards perhaps over a shorter time frame than you would in more traditional forms of investing But yeah going back to what to what ben said if you use time is on your side If you stay in there if you stay the course then you can do well Yeah, I couldn't say it better perfect perfect way Well guys, I can't agree even more. I mean in in 2017 I had that opportunity to To cash out I didn't 2018 I let it all go down I had two choices like either cash out and be like well I'll just take that 70 loss or just dollar cost average and it goes off and The people who stick around like I've always talked about just like the military Just show up with the right uniform when you usually get promoted. That's the same thing that happens with business That's the same thing what happens in life and getting better any kind of skill And it's the same thing that happens with with any kind of investment. I feel so if you're stuck right now in 2021 We've all been there and we've all Experienced the same pain just stick around we'll see you in 2024 and we'll all have or 2025 We'll have a good laugh at the the things that are happening And then we'll give our advice to the people who come in 2025 Who get in from the people that guy just talked about you got to get in right now because this is it This is the only thing because it's great for clicks And then they are the bag holders Anyhow that's that will conclude today's episode gents. I want to say thanks for stopping by now We'll get into q&a. We'll do this kind of show I try to keep this short But I mean unfortunately there's great answers. So I had to let it all play out So this is what we'll do a q&a real quick and see what people got Let's see First of all free church presses short bitcoin Yeah, I'm not a big short person but uh, okay Dermott says that's a good one dcn dcan or dca out for 2023. I'm gonna say You can do both if you really want to guy ben you want to take this one? I mean I My guess is uh, I mean we're in If you look at a lot of the metrics were fairly undervalued It doesn't it doesn't mean that we can't go doesn't mean that we can't go lower, right? You know, we could easily have pullbacks and go lower But in terms of a long-term investor, I would say this is the year to slowly get into the market Uh, not to get out, right Um, the only the only way I would say to dca out for me is if as if we get a true parabolic rally You know, and this is something to to be completely honest You know, I was asked about this back in uh in the summer of 2022 when bitcoin was at 25k and someone asked me You know, do you think I should sell bitcoin? And back then I was very convinced that we were going to capitulate in november, right? We talked about this for a long time that we were going to go lower and even then I said no I don't think it's worth selling Even if we even though I think we're going to go lower. It's probably not worth selling because even if we do You know, we're probably just going to bounce right back eventually and it's just not worth the hassle of taxes not worth all this hassle and um, and also you have to hedge yourself of me being wrong If bitcoin rallies to like 35k or 40k or something like Okay, then maybe maybe I would start to get interested in in scaling somehow But as long as we're as long as we're at these levels I yeah, I just don't really I I'm not as I'm not as interested in in scaling out I'd much more prefer to just slowly scale in um, and honestly hope the price goes lower just because I'd I'd like to You know Get getting bigger bags before the next happening, right? Yeah, I would say it's generally going to be a year to scale in rather than scale out And the only way I would change my mind on that is if bitcoin sees a parabolic rally Perfect guy. What do you got dc and dca out? I don't really have have an awful lot to add to what to what to what ben said. Yeah I think this is a year to to slowly accumulate. I think this is a year to to to cautiously to cautiously move in Um, and yeah, save yourself the dca is is such a good strategy Especially if this is something you're relatively new to you know, take the take the stress out of it Don't try and don't try and time the market. Don't try and second guess the Fed anything like that in nice and slow nice and regular And yeah going back going back to what ben said about time that will that will play out well for you in the future Yeah, and I'm just gonna say right here. I've been micro dcaing Uh bitcoin and alts. I'm gonna start to increase that because I think this is This is the year if we're looking at the four-year cycles. This is you know the halving 2020 all-time high 2021 2022 is the big dip and I think this year is the reset and that's where if you and we've taken a look at different alts and bitcoin if you When you start to dca in or ladder in on the reset years you really set yourself up for success years down the road So i'm gonna start doing that, but oh Rob, I would clarify my response when I was I was specifically referring to to bitcoin Okay, gotcha So yeah, we'll say that bitcoin and then just to just to lay it out One more thing and that is this I did take some profits And I had talked about this on my on my channel before and what it came down to this Because what I did was I have a problem and that problem is getting too Too entrenched in not selling. So like I said, I've been buying bitcoin for every every day at 40 bucks I did a very simple thing. I bought it at 16 7 all the way down here So for the last month or so or whatever it was I spent a thousand bucks and then when it went up to This is on January 9th when I went to 21,000 I sold because it was up 23. I made a small amount of profits But just so everybody knows On the next day. I'm still buying and buying and buying and buying. So even when I sell I'm still buying As days go on this right here Could of course will probably turn into I don't know 150 thousand dollars But I just wanted to do it just to give my muscle memory in so I actually Get a little bit of profits from the sidelines And if it doesn't come down it doesn't come down But that's just what I have and that's what I try to do as far as diversify. So Now I'm not going to be doing any kind of profits Just going to be dca'ing Then a little bit more. So all right for that question And then can I say rob I love the I love that idea of of tracking all that data yourself. I think Yeah, I think this is this is something I I found works actually quite well in in kind of life generally, you know If you've got a goal Whatever it may be investing or or losing weight or doing more exercise or something It can really help if you if you just actually take the time to track it all because then you can measure your progress And and and you get a much better sense of where you are It's it's something that's worked for me really well over the last few years Yeah Well, you know what's going to suck is when I track that and I go and then bitcoin goes 100k and I look back and go Oh my god I could have made so much more But I'll never I'll never time it and I'll just I just want to just take a little bit of profit So I have some cash on the side and then I put it into other things Real estate being one of them not that 239 bucks going to be the end all be all but as time goes on I really ramp up I think we'll be okay and that would answer Aristotle's question. How do you accumulate and be bearish? It's very simple Just like Ben talked about and guy talked about no one really knows so I can accumulate and go I don't know where things are going. I actually hope things go down Because then I can buy it at a lower price because I know as time was on will be good and then one more question Ah Philip Why are the whales selling are the whales selling? I don't know anybody want to take this one? I'd have to lick it. I think some whales where I think some of the larger wallet sizes were going down some the if you look at um If you look at at least the the stock market Retail trades have made up a larger portion Of of the trading activity Then they did at the hype in 2021. They're making up a larger portion today So essentially what what's going is is retail is is sort of leading the rally and institutions don't quite believe it um Well, look, I mean sometimes retail is right. I mean like that's the truth There are times where retail is right and institutions chase it later hedge fund managers Basically chase because they're you know, they're worried about getting left behind. They're humans too, but yeah, I mean retail is um Certainly, I think taking the lead on on this rally more so than than um, some of the larger players Yeah, and guy Well, I mean that just didn't we don't No, no, yeah, I mean, I guess I guess whales, you know, whales, um, quite likely have You know have large debts elsewhere interest rates going up They've got they've got commitments to meet them. So maybe they're maybe they're selling to uh to cope with their debt repayments That would be that would be my best guess Yeah, there's only there's only a couple markets that are liquid 365 24 765 4x and crypto so people got to get those get those profits out two things, um Guy that report that you talked about for the institutions slowing down You guys gonna do a video on that one over on clips or main channel? Quite possibly. Yeah. Yeah. It's um, it's it's on a coin desk for anyone who wants to have a look at the At the article itself, but um, yeah, I think we I think we might well cover that Yeah, I'll talk to the I'll talk to the team about it and see if we can get it on the schedule for next week Sure, that's the and then the last question is thursdays are fridays moving forward Usually we do thursdays fridays. Guy had a commitment over at the metaverse And yeah, it was my fault I think there was uh, I think I made a mistake last week because I think I said we do it every fridays and then people were confused Ah, which is funny that I said that and then it ended up being friday It's like you knew something we didn't bend you are manifesting things ben you're Generally generally thursdays Yeah, generally thursday everybody and that's it but so look we've gone a full hour. These guys are busy ben's got 10 kids running around and guys got everything to go meet with so that is it for today So gentlemen, thanks for coming on again You can find guy from coin bureau and coin bureau clips and ben from the cryptiverse also His website is a link in description for that But that's it. So I think next week we are on guys channel, right? You are. Yeah, we are all right So we'll see you guys on thursday next week See you then guys. Thanks everybody. Bye. Thank you


The second I tried it, I knew this was what I was going to be committing to, and it's interesting because like, you know, when you think of a popsicle, right, you're quitting five years of investment banking, like grinding to sell a popsicle. Like, there were a lot of people, a lot of colleagues, my parents, I love them, they always like supported me. Even my dad was like, you're quitting banking to sell ice cream pops. That's wild. What'd you tell them though? What'd you tell them in that moment? I said, trust me, you gotta believe, like I can see it. This is Starved to Storefront, the podcast where we inspire entrepreneurship through truth. Today's guest is David Greenfeld, founder of the plant-based popsicle company, DreamPops. David is a student of successful entrepreneurs and takes a very academic approach to growing as an individual as well as a business owner. For instance, when he was just starting out his professional journey, he figured it would be a good idea to have a grasp of finance so he went into investment banking. And concurrently with banking, he was on the lookout for markets with untapped potential. He eventually found one in popsicles, but to say the rest's history would be to ignore the persistence and clever series of pivots along the way that led him to create a national brand. So listen and discover everything from why there are no overnight success stories in business, why DreamPops will not be the brand that relies heavily on celebrity partnerships, and why entrepreneurship is a sport. Now, back to the episode. All right, welcome to the podcast on today's show. We're talking to DG, founder of DreamPops. Thanks for joining us. Guys, thanks for having me. This place is unreal. I'm excited to be here. I appreciate you being here. Tell us a little bit about what is DreamPops for people who don't know. Yeah, we are reimagining ice cream and confectionery products for the next generation. Usually less than eight ingredients. We use coconut milk and coconut cream as our base and sweetened with coconut sugar. No gums, no stabilizers, no artificial ingredients. What made you want to start the company?  So some of my fondest memories are Dippin' Dots, Dunkaroos, you name it, but I've always gravitated and have really just really great memories with sweets. And I think naturally being an ex-finance guy, I want to do something I was a little more passionate about. So I thought we could make some better, cleaner treats, sweets, and desserts for the world. Why not? When did you leave? When did you decide that you wanted to start the company? I was lucky. I interned for a guy named Jesse Itzler who had a company that's called 100 Mile Group when I was in the early 2010s. And I spent a couple summers just shadowing him and seeing how he operated. And what he was doing was using Facebook and Twitter and social media the day to build better for you CPG brands. And I saw him do that with Zico Coconut Water and Health Warrior and other brands. And it was really intriguing because he was using technology to tell the world about cleaner alternatives to Gatorade. Zico Coconut Water, great beverage or Health Warrior and alternative to most protein bars. And he could reach millions of people through an iPhone or through any social media. And that eventually was successful and he ended up with the team selling Zico to Coca-Cola. And I thought, wow, what an incredible way to make a living if I could ever just build food and beverage companies. And you have the net net of making everyone healthier, innovating in an industry and simultaneously you can do well financially. It seemed like a great way to do something to do professionally. But when you saw him, so 2010 Facebook at that time, you could literally target and add to anyone. I could target and add to you. It was an amazing time. I had a company at that time and it was incredible. I could be like, oh, Coca-Cola drinker. Right? And so to me, the ROI of the Facebook ad was unbelievable, like something we had never seen before. Totally. When you were thinking about when you met him and you were thinking about starting a company, were you thinking of the marketing side of it? Or were you like, I have a sweet tooth, I need to solve this problem. What was like, where did your mind go? I wish I could say it was that formal. It was more so I was just getting exposure to things that I loved. And understanding I needed specific skill sets if I really wanted to make them happen. I wasn't then thinking I want to start a dessert company or an ice cream brand or whatever it might be. It was more so, wow, they're innovating across all these food and beverage categories using social media. Okay, that's data point one. Then I knew, okay, like it requires millions of dollars or a ton of capital because you're manufacturing food that's consumed every day. So next step for me was go and work in investment banking. And I actually worked at an investment bank for four and a half years saving money, learning how to model businesses, how to raise capital, how to actually operate them profitably, how to raise capital. And then I saw I was lucky to run M&A processes so I'd understand how successful companies were built. And so then eventually I realized I did not want to be in finance for the long run and I wasn't really passionate about it, but it was a great tool and skill set. And so came across the product and decided to take my savings and go all in and battle myself. What was your first product? What was the first thing you... It was a dream pop. It was a berry dream pop. That was the first product that we went to market with. Any milks or no? No, so all coconut milk, coconut milk or coconut milk based. Okay. Yeah. And then you told your friends about it. They tried it. Yeah, so I was still working. I actually did two and a half years with the firm with the investment bank in L.A. And then I moved to Italy. I was in Milan for two years. With them they had acquired a European investment bank. And I lived out there and was going to food and beverage trade shows. One of my favorite entrepreneurs is Howard Schultz, who went to Verona in Milan. It was inspired by the coffee culture there. I'm a student of founders and entrepreneurs. Love how I built this. Love Startup Storefront, love all of the... Every book I've read a lot of founder narratives. And I started to see a pattern of founders going abroad, recognizing a new disruptive product or service and bringing it back to wherever they're from. And so I thought if I move abroad, there's maybe I'll find something at a European trade show or something that'll be in the food and beverage category and directionally knowing that maybe I'll come across something that I'll want to bet on. So one of the things that I saw ahead of this episode was you went on a trip to Colombia in Cartagena and they had their equivalent of popsicles there. What was so eye-catching about these popsicles in Cartagena that stood out to you? Because I don't know much about Colombian food or culture to that extent. And so I'm not sure if it's like a massive thing down there and just hasn't reached up here or if it was the shapes or what it was. Yeah. So like paletas in Latin American culture, just super prevalent. And when we were in Cartagena and Bogota and Medellin kept seeing these paleta shops on every corner. And at the time I was really obsessed with pressed juice, you know, the sujas and pressed juicery and you served here and was wondering why that type of clean innovation wasn't being applied to frozen desserts, which is something that I've always loved. Like I love dip in dots as a kid is probably one of my favorite products of all time. But like when I started looking at these paleta shops, they're really beautifully branded and marketed. So imagine like a pressed juicery or a juice served here, but with paletas served in a really unique and beautiful way. Hadn't seen that. There are a couple like places in the US that have done it, but no one had done it well. I didn't think that a popsicle shop or store was necessarily a winning proposition, but I did think that, oh wow, look at frozen desserts, like how much juice culture has changed from minute made to pressed juice. Let's look at frozen confectionary and what the innovation has looked like over the last 50, 100 years. Wow, it's really dated. It's all the same ingredients. There's minimal innovation. There's like a skinny cow, telente, halo top. Why isn't there like a plant-based player? Because I'm lactose intolerant. And so... With all that dairy? Yeah. No dairy for me. And I was vegan for a little over a year now, still eat a plant-based diet, but a little more in moderation, but just thought that there was white space for plant-based innovation like that. Yeah. You're in Milan. You see that there's space for growth in this plant-based dessert industry. What's the next step for you? Do you immediately jump into trying to create your own, piggybacking on someone else's work and partnering with them? What's going through your mind at that time and how do you find this product that eventually becomes Dream Pops? Yeah. So I'm hitting, on my weekends and vacation, I'm hitting trade shows in Italy, in France, in Germany, wherever I could go, candy shows in Frankfurt, whatever I can find. And so I have this thesis of frozen confection. I'm in the heart of gelato country with Milan and Italy as just these incredible food artisans. So there's a lot of really cool innovation shops like Marchese in Milan and Princi, which is an incredible coffee shop. So I'm exposed to a lot of that. And I did come across somebody who had created the initial workings of the Dream Pop and ended up partnering with him to bring it there. I'm not a chef. I'm not a great cook. But I think we knew that with the right team. We could bring something and commercialize it to the states. And what was it that you had to do to convince this guy to partner with you? Did you have to show him your vision for what the company could become? Were there other suitors that were after partnering with him as well that you beat out? What was that process like? Because I'm sure that he's probably pretty protective of his formula at this point. And so you've got to come in and then convince him, I'm the right person to help you take this to the market. And here's how we're going to do it. So how did you go about that?  The second I saw the product, I knew I had a really visceral and gut reaction that this is something I have to do. So I flew out to Berlin. We ended up acquiring the intellectual property at the time we partnered. And I don't know how else to describe it, just absolute relentlessness. I just knew I was not. You saw it. You figured it out. That was it. I saw it. I knew I had to go. The second I tried it, I knew this was what I was going to be committing to. And it's interesting because when you think of a popsicle, you're quitting five years of investment banking, grinding to sell a popsicle. Here are a lot of people, a lot of colleagues, my parents, I love them. They always supported me. Even my dad was like, you're quitting banking to sell ice cream pops. That's wild. What'd you tell them, though? What'd you tell them in that moment? I said, trust me, you've got to believe. I can see it. And I think, look, we have an amazing team in place. But this comes back to something that I believe, which is the first idea product. It's rarely going to be that that ends up turning into the scaled business or the product market fit. That's why I do think entrepreneurship is a sport. I think you can take any widget or product and you can see how good is that founder at pivoting to a real business. And whatever industry that is, I do think most people may be barring a few bad timing or terrible product. You can pivot or tweak a product to success. Yeah. That's what Harry Kargman, yeah. He said the whole game is basically pivoting faster than all your competitors and just owning the market as fast as possible. He's a New York guy, super smart guy. He's in the creative ad space. When you first met them, did they already have these products or was like, what was it? It was just a formal look. It was one product that dream popped as is, one, two flavors, no name, no brand. It was actually a failed business at the time. And so it really was like, look, I want to take this, I want to partner. Let's bring this to the States. I'm going to do my job. I'm going to fund it. Did they want to stay on or no? We ended up parting ways, which was the best. But just different perception on long term vision. I think there was anything I've learned in my whole life. I can't do partners per se. That's more of a me thing, probably. I just have my own speed. I got my own cadence. And if you're not with it, it gets friction-y. It's a marriage. It's having a co-founder or a partner, especially as the business changes. And you need to make tough decisions like I fully get that. So you backed it yourself at the beginning? Yeah, early days took my savings from banking and just put it in. And then I had two friends who gave me a little bit of cash to really make this happen. I was careful. I didn't want to go raise millions of dollars. I was nervous. I wanted to make sure that this was a real company, a real business, and maybe to a fault because I do think I realized how much capital would be required to really do this. But at the beginning, so once you've acquired it, once it's all state-side, what are you doing with it?  No. Initially, I wanted to be the daily harvest of ice cream. All Ecom was reading about Warby and Casper, and wow, daily harvest is absolutely on fire. Maybe we can do this for ice cream. I think that was, it was, it was the wrong business model. And so we went hard in 2018 selling ice cream online for about three and a half months and then quickly realized how expensive it was to acquire customers that we had melted pops on people's doorsteps. Yeah, that's the hard part about the frozen section. Yeah, and so then there was, there was a big pivot that happened that winter when we said, guys, I think we need to move into grocery stores. So I literally, you know, we started, our team started hitting grocery stores one at a time, literally back, back to being relentless and obsessed, showed up at Bristol Farms HQ with not a real meeting and eventually got the product in front of the buyer.  And then Erwan also gave us a shot when we were, when there were four stores. Those two companies really are the reason that we're here today. So. So going back to the marketing perspective though, like, so you get it in these grocery stores, like, you can't stop there. Were you doing display cases or like, where people could try it in the store as well? Or was it all digital marketing coupled with the in-store presence? Combination of the two, we were demoing as much as we could, like, you know, me and, you know, my partner at the time, we were out there, you know, we get the product into four stores of Erwan, we hit every Erwan with a little booth and sampling product, getting people to try it. Cause once we could get someone to try it, then they're like, this is really unique. It didn't have the same packaging. It wasn't optimized for the shelf, but it just looked differentiated enough that geometric shape that we could get. And once someone tried it, they're like, oh wow, this is pretty good and can convert to a sale. The other thing that's interesting about Dream Pops that a lot of people don't know is we're a manufacturer. So we have patents on the designs. And it's like a car that you build custom. This is not usually in the food and beverage industry of co-packers and you have people that can make the product for you. This has been built through five commercial kitchens to our own factory where we manufacture ourselves, going from my mom's commercial kitchen to like 300 square foot space, 500, 700, a team of 15 that we were on the line with making product for. And now we've officially hired a team and have built our factory to make the product. That's pretty cool. Describe it for people who like, is it a hexagon? How do you describe it to people who? Yeah, it's a dodecahedron. A dodecahedron. There you go. And then at some point, so 2018, now you're in stores, COVID hits and it's maybe seemingly terrifying, but it's probably the best thing that it could have ever happened. Yeah, it's interesting, right? Because you would think that there were a lot of businesses that really benefited D2C during COVID. So we had no idea how it was going to affect grocery stores. Will people go in and buy products, a frozen product? But luckily in 2019, we spent all that time getting into Whole Foods and close to like four or 500 grocery stores. And then by the time it was 2020, when COVID hit, we were in probably about 800 to 2,000 stores and plant-based novelties, frozen ice cream, it exploded in popularity and we got really lucky. And so if you were at a point where you're building a brand you didn't have the distribution, it was a really tough time. Versus if you had the distribution and you're an emerging brand, it was beneficial.  And so now it's like, are you starting to see the competition come in? It's easy for these companies to pivot. What has that been like for you during this time? Is it friendly? I mean, definitely not. I think our industry is one of the most competitive, these trade shows, you launch an innovation and there's five look-alikes at the next trade show. It's cutthroat, you're dealing with not the same kind of margins that a SaaS technology company might have, but we've been back to, we built it the long way. Everyone thinks that this has happened overnight getting into 4,000 stores and building the company, it's taken six years of work. I see a lot of people enter the space after two, three years, usually they're either out or they've made it through that really challenging period. So now back to your question. The Bites product, which you'll see, that's kind of like a Nestle's dib, it's a chocolate-coated bite. And I wouldn't call it a pivot, I would call it an extension that just exploded, has done extremely exceptionally well for us. And the combination of a pop, which is more of a less shareable, your own popsicle that people love, and a bite, which is a more shareable, snackable product coated in chocolate, the two of those things have allowed us to become perceived as a platform brand and a confection company. Before, when we were just popsicles, everyone was like, oh, that's a cute little popsicle brand that's a fad. Right, right, right. Are there any other products that you're starting to look into? Yeah, I'm really excited. I can't share anything now, but we are going outside of Frozen. We wanna be the next Mars, Hirsch year Ferrero of plant-based desserts. So 2022, we're gonna be outside of ice cream. We're gonna have some really fun innovation. The thesis now is let's look at American classic desserts and let's reimagine them with plant-based ingredients. Seems like an O-brainer.  Like, it's something that our team's really passionate about. Like, what do you love? Do you love Dunkaroos? Do you love Insert Fruit Rollups? Name your favorite cult dessert and let's make it healthier. From a marketing perspective, right? So now you're in the game of like, okay, we have obviously an established brand, people can get to know you at two different points.  We've got some cool celebrity investors, athlete investors. We haven't really brought them to the public yet. I'll say with these new products, we probably will. But we're not going to be a brand that relies heavily on a celebrity partnership. If you look at our TikTok, our Instagram, for an ice cream brand, we look like a content company and we are a content company. So I don't see us relying on like tier A. We look, we'll work with celebrities but that's not our strategy. Every, you know, it's funny, I think maybe like three years ago the switch of you can be a company with a product but you'd have to be just as good as content at content at a certain point. You basically have to be a media company and a product company in today's environment. And if you're not, your brand is going to be worthless pretty quickly. When did that light go off for you in terms of content? Yeah, and I'll credit Josh, who's sitting behind us. What up Josh? What up Josh? He runs a marketing partnerships and brand for us. He's been with us for about two years now. When he came in about two years ago, it was an empty room with me and a ring light. And this is before TikTok was, you know, just convert from musically to TikTok. There were no brands on the platform. And we had built the brand on Instagram over the last X number of years and we're like, it's good, but you know, it's not explosive or anything. And so I said, hey Josh, I just filmed three TikToks on this weird platform. One of them got like 40,000 views and now we've got a thousand followers. Like we're going to commit to this and this is fall 2019. I have a feeling about this. You know, I shout out to Gary Vee because he was just screaming about it and I was listening. And I'm like, we're going to make three, two to three TikToks every single day for the next two years. So let's see what happens. And so then things got really exciting because this is when no one else was on there. And so, and we're like, do why is no, holy crap, this video just got a million views, 500,000 views, 600,000 views. We're getting 10,000 followers a week. And you know, we've built that to, I think we've got like five million likes, 50 million organic impressions, 180,000, 70,000 followers. It's a true media channel and that was back to what you mentioned with Facebook back in the day. We're like, this is going to be real. We did that and then LinkedIn was the other one that we built it on. I'm going to ask you this candidly because I know, like I have a lot of finance friends, they hate social media. Oh yeah. They're like, show me the ROI, it doesn't pencil, right? They go real quick into the finance game of it. Totally. And so was this a complete mind flip for you or was it like once you released the three, you saw it and then that proof was it. You were like, we're doubling down on it. I've been a marketer trapped in an investment banker's body for four and a half years. I loved it. The one that was the hardest was in TikTok. It was LinkedIn because all my finance friends would see the content I was posting. And you'll see, we still on my personal channel posting two to three times a day and I've done, when we saw that with TikTok, we were like, oh, let's try this with LinkedIn and it worked at the same time. And so for the last three years, we've done the same thing just with editorial static photos and content. And I will tell you, there were a lot of people, even to this day, they're like, you're really active on LinkedIn. And then I'm like, we'll look at the organic reach on both platforms. It's the equivalent of television campaigns for free. LinkedIn has been really good for the podcast, oddly enough. I guess it, I don't know. It's been worked out. I mean, we've seen them. It's pretty cool. It's probably the perfect platform for your podcast. Well, to me, it makes sense. I mean, it's like the type of listener that we're trying to cater to probably lives on LinkedIn more than any other platform. So it makes sense to focus on that because if you are a budding entrepreneur or an entrepreneur in the weeds, you're, yeah. I need to get better at LinkedIn. LinkedIn is paying people to be creators right now. Isn't that odd? That's a professional service platform. I think they all do that a little bit. That's how I view podcasting too. When I thought of, when we first started the podcast, I was like, Nick, there's under a million podcasts. Like, when will you ever join anything that has under a million people in it? And of those million, I would say, a quarter of them were never gonna be heard from again. Like it was somebody just dabbled, maybe released eight episodes, but that was it, they're gonna quit. And so I was like, we're in a game where it's literally longevity and just being there, being present, getting better at the craft, having engaging conversations, but just being present, I think is gonna help us win. How about like, you guys get to sit down with like incredible, like not me, but other really bad entrepreneurs. You're not yourself in that. But like in chat and chop it up, network and then put that content out and build your brand. Like that's how we see our podcast too. Like how fun is that? Why wouldn't you do that? I tell people it's like therapy when they ask me. They're like, what is it really like? I'm like, honestly, it's therapy. And I think that our listeners agree, you know. Plus you're helping people. It's nice to know you're not alone in the... You're giving people advice or value. Yeah. And so now you're doubling down on your content too, you have a whole team, you're doing, you have a podcast, what other kind of things are you guys doing on the digital media? Yeah, so we're a content engine day one. We've got Instagram content, LinkedIn, TikTok. We've got a newsletter that's over a thousand subscribers now we're doubling down on. We've got Stick With Your Dreams, which is a podcast where we interview founders and talk about how they build their businesses. And then we're dabbling with Snap, Discord, YouTube, IGTV. One of the things I wanted to talk about, and it's a bit of a left turn, but you had a wine company at one point. Yep. And I saw it somewhere that the boxes got yeast into them and exploded in Whole Foods. Oh yeah. Did that ever come up when you started to get dream pops into Whole Foods? Surprisingly no, and I'll give credit to my co-founder at the time, Max Hinchman, because he was really like the face in running that company and dealing with the sales meetings. And so yeah, luckily it did not, but that did happen. Yeah, we had no idea what we were doing and we bottled these box wine boxes ourselves and the bladders exploded on shelf. So back to dream pops, you know, we tried a couple other, I was actually also a hip hop artist for a short stint. You wrapped? Yeah, still wrapped. Still wrapped? Really? Yeah, so put out an EP and a mixtape and yeah. That's amazing. A couple failed ventures. You're still wrapping them. Yeah, I wouldn't call that failed at all. Yeah, you're still in the hunt. There you go.  So we just had Wendy Dan, the podcast, who was founder of Rap Coalition. She helped Master P, Eminem, Lil Wayne. Super cool. All these individuals. And basically I asked her candidly, I'm like, what is the linear path for rap success? And she said, you have to be 26 and under and you need $150,000. Those are the two things. And she's like every artist- That's a lot of people that could be successful. Yeah. But she was saying, you know, a lot of artists, they kind of just hope that they're gonna get found on social media or something like that. And they don't realize that they are a company. And so they have to partner in summa with a business person, business mind, and then become a brand. And it takes about $150,000 for you to even potentially see an ROI. Which I loved because she's in the game, literally. And so for her to be helping these people in a meaningful way and then spewing those facts, I think it's helpful. Cause I think there's a lot of people out there with either no capital, reject the notion they need capital. I think the talent's gonna stand on its own and it's just not the way life works. To touch back on that, I mean $150,000 is a ton of money. So I'm not gonna say that. But what I will say is you think about becoming a successful musician or artist and how impossible that might seem to the fact that she thinks if you have moderate talent under $26,000 and $150,000 that you, I mean I agree if you execute properly it makes sense to me. Well it helps to break above the noise because you might have your following on social media and that core group of followers knows you're talented, you know you're talented. But if you don't treat yourself as a business and you don't take the time to, cause that $150,000 is mostly going towards marketing and promotion. And so it's getting your name out there in a meaningful way. And if you don't view that side of the equation then you really have nothing. And she says she sees it all the time where people who find investors or who have access to capital and treat that side of it as just as important if not more important than the talent side. Those are the ones who succeed even if they're stepping over five, 10 more talented artists on their way up to the major leagues. They're marketers, right?  Like it's really interesting. Let's talk about you in five to 10 years. What does it look like?  What are you working on? Yeah, you know, I'm lucky to say that I really love this category space and brand more than anything. I really love what I do. So I'm in no rush. I don't really want to sell the company. At this point, I'd love to IPO it, take it public and be a real contender in the confection game because I'm lucky that the category where we're finding traction is something that I really relate to and love. So that would be fun. I do make small, tiny investments in other food and beverage companies or advice for other brands. And I love doing that. I've got a couple that I'm involved with, one called Chubby Snacks, which is like an uncrustable, plant-based uncrustable. Another one called Mescla, Daring Foods, which is a plant-based chicken. So just food innovation, maybe raise a fund and invest in other food and beverage brands and help entrepreneurs, I love that. I should put you in touch with, have you heard of Sprout Adventures? No. It's guy named Morgan Keem. He's been in the, basically a lab, so I mean, his world view going back 10 years has been food is gonna be in a lab, food is gonna be all plant-based or some version of that. It's gonna be shipped just like Amazon packages are shipped. The whole farming has to die. Again, he sites like bananas as the most obvious example. So bananas are a, it's a mono-specie, has not evolved at all. And so there's this one pest that basically has evolved and it could really like wipe out all the bananas. And so he's been looking at it like, if we have a lab to either change the sequence or intervene in this pest killing the banana-specie, we could actually help, let's say coffee be made with less water and then moves itself into essentially warehousing of food. And he's been on this for probably a decade. Have you heard of the Oishi Berry? No. Yeah, I should check it out. It's Omakase Strawberry. That is only. Omakase Strawberry. Yeah, it's this beautiful, like just luscious strawberry that's only native to a certain place in Japan. And they found a way to replicate that in doors with vertical farming. And so I mean, these are probably the best strawberries I've ever had in my life, but they're large and really plump and they know they raised a lot of capital but back to in your vertical farming. Yeah, it's pretty cool. We're gonna have him on the podcast. I'm gonna introduce you to him. That's how he views the future and he's been on it and oddly enough, he's more. The thing that's also in natural foods industry is like everyone eats food every single day, right? And if you look at not to knock the big boys in the space, but they're just marginal innovation, they're distribution companies and they're pretty bloated and slow moving and they don't have the time to be investing in digital, strategy and communication, grassroots, pivoting, tweaking, they have shareholders so they can't make huge bets or take huge risks. Well, that's why they acquire. They at least at some point recognize that other smaller companies are doing this much better than them. So, and they have the capital to acquire which is kind of why, like your mentor that you first started out with, sold it to Coke. They are in a vicious battle with Pepsi right now in the better for you category because they recognize that sugary sodas are not selling as well as they used to because the market as a whole, I think, is waking up to what we put in our bodies matters and I think that you're gonna see it in, you know, for them, I know Pepsi specifically, they were working on more than just the beverage category, they were also looking at healthier snacks and stuff like that. Well, in terms of that, like, have you had any companies? Like, I know you said you wanted to reach an IPO status but have you had any companies reach out to you looking to acquire Dream Pops? Candidly, we've had conversations but it's just too early. I mean, we're such a small, like, you know, young upstart, it's not really worth that and I just think our team is too excited to really engage in that right now. Did they ever threaten you or they're like, we're coming after you? Honestly, yeah. They give you like, they send you a product in the mail. We've got a couple people that, you know, they definitely have said, all right, you know, if you don't want to chat, we'll see you out on the field. So it's, look, it's really competitive. You're fighting for limited shelf space. I think people don't realize too, in retail, it's like applying to college, you know, if you want to get your product on the shelf, it takes a year, you got to submit to the buyer, take the meeting and then if you win it, it takes six to eight months. So you got to cash flow the business long enough to be able to even see that forward-looking revenue. What's the next hurdle that you foresee down the line for Dream Pops? Are you in it right now? Or is it something that you think maybe in a year or two to really expand, we're gonna cross X playing field or whatever it might be? Yeah, so, you know, we are growing nationwide and internationally. We've, Canada has been an amazing market. That's been a lot of fun. I think we're just seeing certain supply chain challenges as we grow with, you know, shipping, coconut milk and coconut cream internationally. That can be really tricky. Frozen trucks, all of our product goes around the country in frozen trucks and frozen warehousing. It's really competitive. So optimizing those freight deliveries and ensuring that we, you know, do that in a way that doesn't break the bank. Hiring the right team and just leveling up our marketing and becoming a little more sophisticated. I think we're also super pumped to launch D2C and outside of Frozen, because we've been building this as a retail company. And but we built a digital brand for retail. And so finally we'll be able to tap direct to consumer and Amazon to sell products that are more reachable to individual households. So Amazon will ship it? Also? Yeah, so it'll be on Amazon, it'll be on direct to consumer. It will not be a frozen product, it'll be shelf stable. Okay. I did see that you also had a subscription service on your website. Have you seen that take off? Or is that something that you think will be like a player, but maybe not the main focus of the company? Yeah, I think someone who's done it while it's daily harvest, for us right now it's not a big piece of the business. I think in the future it could be. Subscription's amazing. The best business model there is. It's how Netflix beat Blockbuster. I don't know if you guys ever saw that documentary, it's awesome. They talk all about the golden model subscription. So would love to build that in, but right now it's just about single purchases. Well listen, tell everyone where they can find your goods. Yeah. All the grocery stores, shouting all out. Done. So we're in about 4,000 stores, Whole Foods Global, Erdogan, Lassens, Bristol, Citarella, H-E-B, Wegman, Schnucks, Gelsons. List goes on, you can check out our store locator on dreampops.com. Check us out on Instagram at dreampops, tiktok, at dreampops. And you can check out Josh, who is the king of tiktok. Shout out to Josh. Yeah. Yeah, David, thanks for coming on the show. Guys, thanks so much for sharing our story, I really appreciate it. You bet.