the Vikings and the Packers to decide the NFC North. I'm a little bit surprised that the Vikings are favored by as much as they are at five and a half. What about you? Yeah, I guess I'm a little bit surprised as well. The Vikings are this sizeable a favorite. But then you look at points scored and points allowed the expected record for both teams. And the Packers are really more of an eight and six kind of team instead of an 11 and three kind of a team. But as far as the Vikings are concerned, their 10 and four points scored and points allowed their 10 and four as well. Packers have feasted off of a plus 14 turnover differential. That's second best in football. I'm not sure how sustainable that is for these last two weeks of the regular season going into the playoffs. The Vikings are not far behind though in turnover differential at plus 11. That may very well be a wash in a game like this. Aaron Rodgers is 15th and completion percentage over expected plus EPA for play. Kurt Cousins though, he has been a lead. He has been at or near the top of the leaderboard as far as that's concerned. And it feels kind of weird to go with the quarterback who has not done well on Monday night with a large spread. But that's exactly what I'm going to do. I think Kurt Cousins can cover that


TLO was We are on twitch. We are not live. So just leave a like comment subscribe turning your post notification bells Let's continue to grow the family from Chicago to the UK Right behind us. This is Spotify playlist the link to this is down in the description This is just my opinion. I do rate rappers and I know it hurt the soul when I give a rating So just relax and just know it's my opinion You got to be a seven or better to make this list to be considered to make this list This is SJ mother's son Okay For a lot missed it. It's about to be deep. We are ready now Look no more paying mom. I know I put you through some stuff I hope you know this ain't your fault, man, and I love you for life, man.  That's all rage. That's all things. I can't say and I wanted this in bad But it's burning me inside, but I feel it for my mom the most. She's a real G Strong when her son got a guilty look me in my eyes and said that's not the room me I told her I know but only you is me against them.  I'd be selected forever respected.  I'm the first to I'm sorry Ma didn't want to listen and it hurt you I went on court bird flu He recorded this in jail, too, huh? This what I'm saying bro SJ is locked up and he's better than y'all This is hitting hard too because this may 44,000 views is crazy I don't in four days. That's tough. Why Why He's the first rap. He's the first drill artist for me I think that I can remember to step outside of drill and try something and I liked it I like this because he can rap a Lot of drill artists can't rap they could just shock you But the bro can rap so when he steps outside of Everybody else is comfortable with him.   This is it. I'm saying y'all can't do that Y'all cannot do that. Y'all what he just did Make a M make a M sound like a soccer game.   This is J. Do not S J on your speaker.    Mommy. It's a long road trust It's gonna get cold check on see my DNA I'm a muck this race like a GLA This race like a GLA come on Just staring at the world like I'd be in space man. I really needed space happy for the love I get They trapped me like a dog and put me in the vet He's swept up trips all I do is sweat Three six five same spot like I'm trying to bet they really on my neck no more pain mark It's not the same but I promise I'm the same They're trying to turn your son dropping this much quality. This sounds like quality.   I like this. I actually like this And if I had to rate it, I'm waiting it like an 8.8 out of 10 Not stand on it. I'm gone


Let me first say how happy I am to be here in the ILO. I mean, I worked, as Tony mentioned, in several agencies, UNCTED, WIDER, UNICEF, Economic Commission for Europe, briefly, very briefly, for CEPAL. And I think that my life has been blessed, because much of the economic thinking in the United Nations at large originates from these agencies. And I remember that while I was working 76, 77 in the Economic Commission for Europe, I was spending most of my time here with Rolf Wouter, because the ILO was then the leading agency in the development debate. And then, in a way, one could write a book, and then I moved to UNICEF. And then UNICEF, basically, became a very important actor in the development debate. So one could write a book on the rise and fall of the leading position of United Nations agencies in the development debate. But the fact remains that in the UN, there are five or six agencies which are producing original thinking. And thank you, Isabel. Thank you to the Director General of ILO for hosting this conference. And I think that it is very nice to see many friends here. And in this way, I feel like I'm in my own family. And in this family, I would like to bring in a little bit of optimism. And now the debate is dominated by Thomas Piketty's book, which says that inequality is rising everywhere. And this is not true. It's rising, basically, in the OECD group. And this is how the country is mainly analyzing. And in order to, if you want to change things, well, you can start from first principles. Or you can look around and see if there is anyone who has done things otherwise. And Latin America represents, in a way, a good example of how policy could start to be built. And nothing terribly radical, but things have changed. And then this is how they've changed. You see, the income inequality in Latin America was, in the early 1980s, the highest or the second highest in the world together with one part of Africa, with the Eastern and Southern Africa. And during the period of, during the lost decade, the inequality kept rising again already from high levels. And then during the augmented Washington consensus, which is the 90s, more or less, it rose again. And the turning point is around 2002. And then we see that this is the average for the region, but it's not an average with huge variance. Actually, it's an average with low and declining variance. And so we see that from about 2002, you see inequality starts falling. And it falls very much. It falls basically to, in about eight years, it goes back to the level of the early 1980s. And the question is what causes that? But before we do that, I mean, not all Latin America experienced a decline, but 15 countries out of 18. So basically, the vast majority of these countries, Central America had a much smaller decline in inequality, South America, and particularly the Southern Corn, a much bigger one. So you go from Nicaragua, which had an increase in inequality of two points during the period 2002, 2010. And then you go to Argentina, where inequality falls by nine point, and Brazil as well. So two very large economies experience a decline in inequality. Now, one could say, well, there is a debate which says, well, that has been, inequality has been declining in Latin America during a period of high commodity prices, easy access to finance, an increased number of Latinos work moving to Spain, to Europe, to the United States, and so on and so forth. So basically, it's a cyclical effect. And the question is, is it cyclical? So what we did, we plotted also the changes in inequality between the year of the crisis, which is 2008 and 2012. And basically, we see that inequality keeps going down. Perhaps there is a slowdown in 2012, but this is a panel of 11 countries. They are the largest, but they are not all of them. And then if you take other measures, basically, you see that inequality goes down as well. And so it looks like that the decline in inequality in Latin America is more structural than cyclical. Now, during the recent conference in Helsinki, I think it was a month ago or two months ago, there was a Marcellon area was the Brazilian minister for strategic affairs. And basically, it gave us the data which are updated until July 2014, so until four months ago, three months ago. And that means this is wage inequality. It's not income inequality. But then it concerns only five or six of the main cities, but it's quite telling. So it looks like that even up to 2014 for the largest economy of the region, inequality is falling. Now, one could object, but you know, Tony Atkinson, Thomas Piketty and Manuel Saez and others, they are saying, well, these are data based on household budget surveys. And we know well that the distribution you obtain from this information is truncated. The top people often they opt out from the survey. They saw, so if I'm a rich man or a rich woman, I can say, no, no, no, I'm not obliged to take part into the survey. And the way now people will go around that, including Piketty, Tony Atkinson, Facundo Alvaredo and others, I mean, basically is to reconstruct the top tail of the distribution using tax returns. And fortunately, we have data for three countries and for the last 10 years, which are Uruguay, Colombia and Argentina, which show that you see the dotted line is the genie corrected by the information concerning the tax returns. And you see that it is higher, quite a bit like in the case of Argentina, five or six points. But you see that the trend is not altered, you see. So there is not a change in trend, even if you use the genie distribution corrected for the share of the top 1% derived from tax returns. So when we find this information, so there is a level effect, but there is not a trend effect. Now, so we are fairly sure that what we found tends to be, stands to prove of different data sources. Now, since, I mean, there's been quite a big debate in a new book which we did in honor of Sir Richard Jolly, there is one chapter by Robert Wade. And the chapter says, the title of the chapter is, why is income inequality neglected so much in the current debate? And then he quotes four or five people like Martin Feldstein and Margaret Thatcher, I mean, some of the neoliberal people, including a Dutch economist who is basically more English than Dutch now, Boijter. And Boijter says, I really am really sorry about people being poor, but I don't care about inequality. So there is a debate at what the target is, is that you have to reduce poverty. And then if you do that through unequal policies which are unequalizing, it's also worrying. In the case of Latin America, this is the proof that Boijter is wrong. And if you take what has happened more or less during the last 10 years, you see that the dark bar represents the decline in poverty, which is due to redistributive policies. And the lighter bar is the amount which is due to growth. So if you are in a country with very fast growth, but rising inequality, poverty will not fall too much. And so here during this, let's say during the last decade, I mean it varies from period to period, from country to country, but basically 40% of the poverty decline is due to improvements in the income distribution. So even if you want to take a narrow perspective of focusing on poverty, then inequality is a reduction in equality is a sanction. Now the big question is what explains the inequality in Latin America 2002, 2012, and then if all the countries are like Brazil, then 2014. Now I think that there are different views. I mean if you talk to like Ricardo Hausmann who is a well-known Latin American commentator, he says luck, you know, in the income inequality has fallen because the market was characterized by high commodity prices and all that, you know. Other people they say, well, no, it's not really luck, but it's growth because Latin America during the last decade more or less had a rate of growth which I think is, Fredo, correct me if I'm not wrong, but it's slightly higher than even the period of the income substituting industrialization. So it's around four, five percent. But five percent growth is not necessarily leading as we shall see to falling inequality. And the third explanation is public policies. And this is the one which basically I tend to favor and I try to demonstrate why this is true. Now if you want to be technical, I think it is quite complicated to prove convincingly what you have to say. So if I have to go to the meeting of the hard-nosed economist, this is what I have to say. Now, what type of information can you use? Well, you can use micro-surveys. So household budget surveys. But the household budget surveys, they provide some information. Provide information basically individual characteristics. So family characteristics and all that. Don't tell anything about exchange rates, public spending, they tell you hardly anything on policies. But they provide you accurate information on what happens at the micro level. So what we did, we decomposed point-to-point two surveys between let's say 2000 and 2010 for six countries, which you will see that I mentioned. So in this case you are able to determine whether the decline in the genie or the rise in the genie, I think we selected also a country with rising inequality is due to what? Changes in the distribution of wages, change in the distribution of capital income, change in the distribution of transfers, and so on and so forth. And then if, since these incomes are distributed in a very unequal way, then of course if you have a fall in the capital share, if you have a rise in the capital share, everything else being equal, this will be unequalizing, it's quite obvious, you know. But then in the end then we don't get the political economy that both my predecessors have mentioned there. And so I find many of these decompositions done by people of not my age, normally they're about 27 year old or something like that, sorry for the younger one. So basically they ignore the political economy. And then when you want to get high scores and doing your PhD thesis in American universities, what you have to do. But then that does not help you much in terms of deciding what public policy should be. So then we link the information coming to that today, what we call the underlying causes of income inequality based on economic theory, political economy, pundit regression and so on and so forth on this. Now then of course we compare the results of the two, they fit and moralize they fit. Now the decomposition is done this way, I don't want to bother you, but there are some algorithm like one is by Branko Milanovic which was cited by Isabel in which the changes in the total gene is equal to the changes in the concentration coefficients of the different sources of income, labor income, capital income, transfer income, remittances income and changes in their own total share and total output. So in a way we combine the micro distributions with changes in labor share versus capital share. And so it seems complicated, but it's quite simple. Or we can use the Lerman and the Tzaki which is very similar. So you see we basically rely on six sources of income, UW is Unskilled Wages, SW is Skilled Wages, R are Rends, then RK are Capital Profits basically, then TR are Transfers and RE Remittances. And then it's good that we have data also on that. And what does it come out of all that? Now here I plotted the data for two out of the six countries and then we took Chile and Ecuador. So and we have the 90s in which inequality rose and then the 2000 in which inequality fell. And we wrote the political regime which was in power and then the period exactly considered. And then we saw that in Chile during the liberal period inequality actually was Christian Democrat. Inequality rose a little bit, but it fell much more during the second decade. And then we saw that the absolute changes in not in the total genie, but in the wage genie basically behave in a similar way. It rises during the first period then it falls during the second period. And we calculated again what was the skill premium. So the ratio of the wages of skilled workers to unskilled workers. And so we see that the point that Richard mentioned that and which was accepted by the IMF that the skilled wages basically rise faster than unskilled wages during the first period but they fall massively during the second period. Then we look at whether there is a change in the urban rural wage. Now in Chile, Chile has a very small proportion of labor in the agricultural sector, so it's not important, but in Ecuador it is. Then we look at changes in the genies of the other income sources, capital income, public transfers and remittances. And we see that in the case of Ecuador that remittances are equalizing, which is not to be taken for granted because all the literature so far has say that they were unequalizing. So basically this is what we have done for each one of these countries. And this again is a similar decomposition done by two of the authors, Caveman and Mauricio Maurizio. And then basically it shows that the decline in total gene inequality, 73% is due to improvement in labor inequality, 24% in the case of Argentina. 24% to improvement in the distribution of pensions during this period, public cash transfers are unequalizing and other non-labor incomes are equalizing. So this has been done for about six countries. Now if you take the case of Brazil, it is interesting to see that the story of the Bolsa scholar, Bolsa Familia, is quite relevant because the Brazilian basically say that this increase in transfers like Bolsa Familia and Bolsa Scholar and all that explains about one-fifth of the total decline of a huge decline in income inequality. So like three points of genie would have gone down because of a small transfer because the Bolsa Familia is very small. I mean altogether it's about less than 1% of GDP. So it looks like a miracle. So we have always been slightly unconvinced. But anyhow, this other table confirms the results of the prior table. What are the overall decomposition? Well, as I mentioned, is labor income falls. And then we say, well, in parallel to the decline of labor income inequality, there is a decline in the skilled premium. That we analyze it as closely as we could, but that is a rather complicated story. Well, it could be to the stagnant demand for skilled labor. Basically you have to build a supply demand of skilled labor and skilled labor. And in a way, one could argue that there has been a rapid increase in income inequality because of the major improvements in technology. I mean adoption sophisticated technology during the 1990s which somehow levels off during the 2000. This could be an explanation. Now, then the second there is an increase in demand of unskilled laborers. Well, because why? Well, because there are policies increasing the demand for this type of labor, particularly in the trader sector, which means agriculture. And if you look at some of this country, basically international commodity prices, they rose. And so the wages in agriculture, they rose because demand for labor rose in agriculture. Some other people they say that the inequality, I mean the decline of the skilled premium has to do with the worsening quality of the higher education. So that the people who come out with a degree, they receive a lower wage in the market because the universities are not as good as they were before, you know? Now, the one which we tend to consider is the one which explains the most in our view is the one in red. So there is a rising supply of skilled labor due to higher spending on education in the 2000 and also in the 1990s, you know? And we'll come back to that. Now, the other point is that Latin America has gone through a very rapid demographic transition and an increase in immigration. So that if I have a greater proportion of young men and young women going to second and tertiary education, if some of them they migrate. And the birth cores are smaller than the supply of unskilled labor is declining. And finally, institutional factors. I think that minimum wages. And in Latin America there is this, I mean the World Bank has produced interesting data showing that in Latin America this lighthouse effect works. So if I increase minimum wages in the former sector, this spreads also to some degree to the former sector. So this is the thing. Now every model as any one model, this supply demand for skilled labor and skilled labor shows to obtain in the end of the skilled premium. It's very, very difficult to do because you don't really know what is the demand. You know what is the equilibrium point. You know the employment, but not the demand. So demand can be proxied in some ways, but it's not simply meant. You don't have intentions of employers because and so you have to use some proxies. Now the interesting finding is that this seems to be going back to the, Rolf, going back to the 70s and 80s, that also the urban wage gap is an important factor in reducing totally inequality. And that only in countries where, I mean there is still a sizable supply where the agriculture is still important. Then we have the transfers. Now why should the transfer reduce income inequality? Well, because they are well targeted, but also because they've been financed with increased taxation. And I think that what we'll see later is that tax-to-GDP ratio have gone up quite a bit and because they are better targeted. Now the other point is that remittances. You know remittances in the literature normally are treated as unequalizing. So here we have the case of El Salvador, which is a country with a huge migration, out migration, one third of the Salvadorian are in Los Angeles. And you see that the red line is the trend in the genetic coefficient before migration, excluding remittances. And the other one including remittances. And you see that over time the distance between the two arises from three points to six points. So which means that if the narrows go to Los Angeles to sell coca, probably this is equalizing in the country of origin. Now, how about capital income? And now we know very little about that. And this one of the weakest point. And then, and I think that the debate could be richer dyes in this. I mean, we know for instance that the Brazilians holding assets abroad are, I mean, they own something like about 200 billions of dollars. And this is money which has been earned in good part in Brazil, belongs to Brazilian, but they don't pay taxes or very little taxes in offshore places. And so if you include the income generated by that, we are not entirely sure what would come up. And even the data, even the approach in which you correct the distribution of income by means of the tax returns, they don't declare it in Brazil. So one part of the capital income may be escaping to offshore centers. And so if you calculate the Gini distribution by nationality, that may be different from the one which we found. So that is still to be clarified. Now, so this is more or less what we find out with the decomposition. And this is it, but why wage income goes up, why this goes down. And so we found statistical data which are coming closer to our story. But then we don't know what are the political economy factors. So we say luck. So these are the five possible explanations. We'll go straight to them. Now, is luck equalizing? Well, if you look at the term of trade laws, remittances laws, financial bonanza improved. Now, what are the distributive effects if you have an increase in the copper prices in Chile or Peru? Well, copper is produced in the sector with an extremely high capital concentration. So if you take the distribution, if you take the production function, it's very unequal because to dig mineral into the ground basically you need a lot of machines and a little bit of labor. And the labor which is employed in the mining sector is normally highly qualified labor. So ex ante is unequalizing. Now, how about finance? Was this financial bonanza improving access to finance by the small guys? No, because there was no changes in the institutional approaches in the financial sector. So basically, and then for the remittances perhaps because we saw it, remittances in the six countries, the remittances in three of them are unequalizing and three of them are equalizing. So it depends where you are. So the direct effects tends to be unequalizing. But then you have an indirect effect because if you have terms of trade effect, I mean you have an income effect in the national economy. The balance of payment improves. You can import all the technology you want. You may create more jobs, you distribute more wages and therefore there is a growth effect which you will see a little later. But overall ex ante we discussed, we basically argue, I argue that the financial bonanza if anything should be unequalizing because of the distribution of assets in the sectors which are produced in the Scots basically. Now, people they argue, yeah, but then if you get a high bonanza, governments receive more revenue. And this is true. So we plotted for all countries for 2003 and 2007, the relation between terms of trade on the horizontal axis and the tax revenue to GDP on the vertical axis. And you see there is a very, very little relation. So the correlation coefficient is 0.18. So this is for 1990, 2007. So if you take the period 2003, 2007, it's very small, 0.18. So no correlation. So if you restrict the sample to the eight main commodity exporters and only to the years 2003 and 2007, yes there is so the correlation coefficient rises to 63 which if I remember correctly my statistics basically is not an extremely high, but it's not tremendously high. So even the fact that the Latin American countries have earned more revenues which is important for many respects is only in part and only in a few of the countries can be attributed to commodity prices. Now, is it growth? So we say, well, international conditions, not too convincing that like Ricardo Hausmann argues that the source of decline of inequality comes from a good global environment. Is it the domestic growth which they had? Now, here basically we look at growth and we see bilaterally like in the chart that Isabel showed that we see that the correlation are low, they ask where there is a totally, practically all the variance is unexplained. But exactly does growth lead to inequality? The clients look at China. China's had until a year ago. Basically a very fast rate of growth and a very fast rate of income inequality. So it's not the rate of growth which matters, but it's the pattern of growth which is what we were saying when Rolf and I we were wearing shorts, you know, here in the ILO. So those who argue that growth is this miracle that solves all the solutions, I mean all the inequality problems basically falls. It depends on the pattern of growth. And so growth looks also an unlikely thing. Now, the liberal policy changes so the third solution. And I think that we should look at the political economy. So what we call the politics of policy changes. If you had a sort of a very conservative regime would they have introduced policies which made more sense from the point of view of the poor? Unlikely, not because they are bad people but because they reflect the interest of different social classes and perhaps they are closer ties to the international institution, international financial sector. So what do we have in Latin America in the 80s? I mean I lived shortly in Chile in 1976 with General Pinochet. And most of Latin America, Argentina, even the highly civilized Uruguay they were military dictatorship, you know, Brazil and so on and so forth. So in the 80s and 90s there is a gradual return to democracy. Now one rule which is a very strange rule when you come out of an authoritarian regime be it the sort of a Russian communism or military dictatorship, the political, the democratic political regimes which imagine are never center-left, never. I mean, so there's Tandik and Kandawira, our friend from unrest. Basically, so we have identified the sort of a transition period which may last six, seven, eight, 10 years.  You find out the distribution worsen. You find out that only a few people benefit. You find out that employment does not rise very much. And then if you have democracy then you vote against these people. And this is what has happened. Now in Latin America there is a survey, an ongoing survey which is called the Latino Barometer which is a private institution based in Chile which collects information for a significant sample of the population of the region. And basically it is very clear that people, they were against the privatization of telephones and water that they thought all the economic policies were benefiting only a part of the country. All this shift to the left. It's not that everybody has become Marxist or whatever. But basically, so there is no ideological realignment but there is the fact that people saw their own pockets, I mean their own wallet, shrink during the 80s and during the 90s. Now if you have a regime which is more favorable ideologically and also because the social classes which express them basically they want this type of things then you will introduce policies which will be imperfect, they will not complete but they will go in this direction. And if you look at the history of political regime in Latin America this is the one. You see that until, I mean the turning point is late 90s and in this case is 1998. The red ones are the center left regime. The blue one are the center right regimes. And you see there is a cross and this is quite striking. And the center countries have remained more or less the same. So if you go back, we see that in the end the inequality fell less but also in a conservative regime. So there is a sort of a spill over effect also in this type of countries. Now what is the story, what do they do? Well they basically adopted a new micro-economic regime. So they abandoned fixed specs which is the first thing. Second they had them, they were in a way like the Washington Consensus that the very prudent budgetary policies, they even had surplus, not primary surplus, it's a surplus for the region as a whole. They had the prudent monetary policy and so they say but how do they finance this increase in expenditure? Well, because they tax more. So basically the tax GDP ratio rose by at least three, four points in the region and in Brazil nine points. So Brazil now taxes more than in the UK, more than in Spain, more than. And so basically the government has been collecting money and I think this has been a very important feature of their own new experiment. Now if you raise more money through the budget basically it can increase public expenditure in a non-inflationary way. And then there was a massive increase in social spending particularly education and housing I believe. Then the policies, I mean if you abandon, I mean if you look at the standard macro policy in the neoliberal regime, this is very prosyclical. So when things go bad you cut, which is completely crazy including in Europe now. So we have to follow austerity in a period in which the economies are depressed. You should follow austerity in periods when the economy expands. But in periods in which the economy is depressed, I mean if you take basic ISLM or ASAD basically then you have to use an expansionary policy. Now I mentioned exchange rate which has been very much better. Then the other point which in a way is tries to bring some smile on the face of my pessimistic English friend here at the head table. I mean basically there has been a lot of work being done in better provincial regulation of domestic banks. And now why? The question is, well we don't really know but there is a sort of a committee of central bankers which reviews and so many, many, many, many better regulation of the domestic bank in financial sector. Why? Well my guess is that they suffer from so many, so many crisis, so many financial crisis I make. That basically, I mean it made sense, I mean they paid the very high prices. I mean there are some guys in, I'm sure in the ILO but also in the World Bank who started the cost of fixing the financial crisis of Ecuador, Argentina, some sort of, I mean it was immense and spread over several years. So perhaps with the change in political regime they started trying to fix the problem. Now there has been also a change in one of the standard dependencies of the region which is the dependence on foreign capital. Well I mean basically if you take the financial assets I mean the deposit in central banks they've gone up and foreign debt owed by the country as a client. So the country finally they came to have positive net financial assets towards the rest of the world. Now what happens to the labor market? Well I mean I think here there are other things which are less easy to document but there is a very interesting chapter by Kaifman and Maurizio. Well first of all I mean if you look at the 80s and 90s there has been a massive informalization on labor which is what happens here. So the fear of the permanent secular stagnation I mean I think it is an underconsumption I mean this has clearly happened there but there has been an effort to correct that. So the share of labor which was not covered by contract not covered by social security basically started has been deliberately being attacked in the region. So it's still very high extremely high and Latin American formalization is also into the formal sector of the economy. So you have a large corporation who basically are labor without giving them a contract. Now again rising the number of work is covered by collective contracts. In Argentina they were telling me that during the Menem government there were four people which were in charge of inspection against informal employment, four. And so how could they cover a country so big? So now there are 300s perhaps there's still too few. Then the other thing which tends to be equalizing is the recent realization of wage bargaining. Then there's been a massive increase in minimum wages which I'll show you in a moment. And an increase in social pensions in many parts of the region. So some of the efforts that Isabel was mentioning in terms of social protection and the most obvious case are perhaps Argentina but Bolivia, Bolivia basically no social protection. And they provided the $20 universal pension to everyone over 70 years of age. And all the evaluation they show that these $20 they represent something like 50 or 60% of their own cash income. So it's very relevant intervention.  Basically if you look at the one in yellow you see that in Brazil the real, so this is inflation corrected, minimum wage rises from 114 to 182. So by 60, 70% in Argentina it quadruples. In Uruguay is more than doubles and so on and so forth. Now Mexico, Mexico no lo hace bien. Basically Mexico basically has a decline in the real minimum wages. Mexico in fact has a decline in income inequality but not as pronounced as let's say in the southern corner. Now what happens to tax policy? This is what happens. So this is a tax GDP ratio in the three periods. So you see that the new liberal tax reform that Isabel was mentioning before basically you see that tax GDP falls if you are in a period of crisis tax GDP falls because there is tax buoyancy negative tax buoyancy it's normal. And then you see that when the economy recovers basically you go back to the long-term rate which is about 15, 16% but then during the 2008 this goes up by three points which is quite a bit. And is it equitable this increase in taxation? Well it is and there is one of these leaflets here is the abstract of one of the chapter of this book which I contributed to prepare. And so if you calculate the Reynolds-Molensky index which is the difference in genie distribution before and after. So now when is negative this means is basically is regressive taxation taxes more the poor than the rich. And so we did that on very detailed studies for the 1990s and then for the 2000. And then you see that for instance in the case of Argentina taxation was regressive in the 1990s and becomes progressive in the 2000. And the change is huge it's almost four genie points which means the tax system tends to become more progressive. And if you see that in the 2000 there is only Honduras and Salvador which they still have a regressive taxation because they rely mainly on consumption taxes value added tax and next sizes. Now one of my PhD who is the co-author of this chapter Bruno Martirano did these thesis on the new tax reform in Uruguay where they reintroduced income tax. Uruguay which normally people they think is the Switzerland of Latin America or whatever else basically they completely abolished income tax during the 1990s. And basically it shows that basically there is no efficiency effect I mean because the idea is okay introduce taxes and people will no longer go to work the firms will no longer go to invest it's not true basically. So there has been a deliberate effort raising taxes and I think that the low taxation Latin America was one of the main factors of macroeconomic instability in the past. Now then what you do with this money? Well you increase public spending. You increase public spending on what? Well mainly in the social sector and you know there are people who says well we're born too far perhaps you should invest a little more in infrastructure. And I think that if you look at that an interesting part of this an important part of this expenditure went into expanding cyclotron education. This is enrollment in cyclotron rates so the blue bar they give you the increase in enrollment rates. So the first one Uruguay 1992 2005. Now Uruguay had already a very high enrollment rate in secondary so the increase is only five points but if you look at the last one which is Brazil the enrollment rate increase in cyclotron education is more than 30 points. Now what are the red bars? The red bar are the Q5 Q1 ratio so is the ratio of the enrollment rate of the children belonging to the top 20% of the distribution to the children belonging to the top to the bottom 20% of the distribution. So what do you see? Well you see that in most cases Q5 Q1 goes down. Though there still are a few three seven but in 11 it goes down. So which means that the increase in enrollment is basically taking place among the children of the poor. So there has been a large increase in educational enrollment among the in secondary educational enrollment among the children of the poor since the 1990. And if you take the data in the bottom part of the table you see that average spending on education for child 014 including kindergarten in real terms. PPP so basically it gets multiplied by five. And if you take the share of GDP which tells you a little even more it goes up 2.8 to 4.4. Now it's not so simple to attribute that to policies so Gasparini and Cruces in this volume basically they've developed an algorithm and they basically conclude that 50% is due to growth. So this increase in public expenditure because the government spends 2% of GDP but GDP keeps growing so you spend more money. Then second is that there is a court effect. So the number of children entering secondary education is basically slowing down while well because of birth rate they've fallen 15 years before but at least 33% is due to policy. So which means that at least one part of this increase is driven by the desire to put the children of the poor into school. Now if I increase public spending on education particularly among the poor basically I can compute on using Barron Lee data on the years of education of the labor force and other source I can compute the gene of education. So how nicely or how poorly distributed is the human capital stock among people? Among workers in particular. So you see that basically everywhere that there is a massive decline in the gene inequality which means there is a massive decline in the distribution of years of education of the labor force. And so that varies from of course you see that the biggest decline are in countries where the enrollment rates were very low so like El Salvador which is the sharpest decline. But also Brazil. So in Brazil was a very segregated type of education not many people in Mexico. So basically the very large increase in education second education particularly improved the distribution of human capital which is a reproducible capital which unlike the land which is not reproducible. Now if you look at social assistance that the story is more or less well known there has been an extension in social insurance there has been an increase in conditional cash transfers. Now there's a big debate. Iowa has been very unconvinced by the Brazilians by particularly by the, what is the name? Now his name escapes me. But the argument that with 0.5 pais de barro by pais de barros who is now is the minister of minister of deputy minister for social affairs. So his own views and his PhD is top economists. So the question is that if I take a distribution of income I take the Lawrence curve and then I give a tax and I give 0.5% to the bottom part. Well the distribution will go out a little will go in a little bit. But not much. So how could it be that with 1% of GDP I save the reduce so massively inequality? Well this is what Marcelo Neri says. Now much of this money is given to people which are living in outlying areas, rural areas, small cities where the economy is very little monetized. So the multiplier effect. So if I give one Rajesh to a poor family in a small village basically the local GDP will increase by 1.78 points. And then they calculated that the multiplier effect for all the other types of social transfer and they see that for instance if you give it to the public servants the effect is very small or smaller than one. So now finally I think that we should say what did the new policy model in Latin America did not do? Well first of all there has been no major distribution of assets when I was spending time here with my cop against Rolf Wouter and so on and so forth. I mean there was also Keith Griffin here and I was very much influenced by his thinking, by a book which I now have given to my PhD students called Poverty in Latin American and in Southeast Asia. And so Latin America still has the latifundia so it's still very high land concentration and when the leaders came to power Lula in Brazil in Paraguay, Lugo in Bolivia, Evo in Guatemala I forgot which one, they all basically promised to redistribute the land and I've been told this country to look into that in particular. None of them delivered, none of them has delivered. And there are many arguments which have been given where no other population is urban and then basically it's politically very difficult to do. And now mines, gas, oil, and our face Bolivia is an exception but also in that case very little nationalization. There is a nationalization of YFP in Argentina but actually with compensation. So basically you get the mine, you get the oil but then you give them five billions. Now access to credit and finance and for small orders. And then university education. University education remains still skewed and we've seen the recommendation. Now industrial policy. I think that the country has been abandoning with an open trade regime. I mean I'm more assertive than Richard. I think that all the data I've seen they tend to show that by large trade liberalization in the periods in which trade liberalization is unequalizing. And there is a paper by somebody in American academia I mean very, very clear on that. So if you do that basically you're doing the deindustrialize. And then I think that one of the problem is that rather than progressing with their own industrial revolution the region, I mean Argentina is a highly developed country. Brazil the same, Chile the same, and so on and so forth. So rather than witnessing a sort of further increase in the industrial base then you see that there's been a move towards financial services, return to agriculture and then reduce dependence on foreign finance. Now I think that Stephanie Griffith Jones taught us that countries with basically, which basically finance a larger proportion of their own investments with domestic resources are more stable. That is quite obvious. So there has been a lot of changes in the banking sector, good changes in the banking sector. In Brazil there has been an increased role of the Banco Nacional de Desembolvimento while all the private sector was not lending. But again, we are far from becoming able to finance our investments entirely with our domestic savings or at least a large proportion. So altogether this has not been a radical model. This has been as it is defined in the literature the social democratization of the Latin America. Now with under aggression analysis I will save you that but basically confirms what I told you. Now let's look at the problems. This is what still needs to be done. Then now tertiary education, university education. Now changes in tertiary enrollment rates you see that they have increased. But you also see that the Q5, Q1 ratios increase everywhere. And if you look at the political elections in Chile, the progressive regime, I mean there was this student, very young students, like 23, leading the campaign of the opposition, basically saying to the center left candidate and certainly to the center right candidate that basically you have to expand access to tertiary education. Because if we do have further technological shocks, basically we will go back as before. So the wages of the skilled laborers will go up, the wages of the skilled laborers will remain where they are. And when I was in Chile in January, and basically I'm told that the government has targeted the 3% increase in taxation, basically on increasing corporate income tax, mainly to finance broader access to education. In addition to that you have to finance the strengthening of public secondary school, which are of lower quality. In Italy it's the opposite. In Italy, if you go to a private school, it means you don't want to study. But in Chile, basically in the last part of Latin America, the private schools, they prepare better the students. And then entering the university is a bi-competition. I mean, I don't know whether it's true everywhere, but in the last part. The second problem is that if you look at that, if you draw a sort of a, if you calculate what should be the taxation norm in relation to GDP per capita, and this is done on all countries, not only the Latinos. You see that with the exception of Argentina, Brazil and Nicaragua, all the others are below the international norm. So we still have a need to increase taxation, and we have done a little bit of regression analysis, basically showing that if you increase direct taxation on GDP by one point, Gini falls by 0.9 to 1.2 points. And if you reduce excises by one point, this Gini will improve by, because they have a very bad incidence by 0.9 points. That's it. So lots of still needs to be done, but I think that we have a sort of an anti-picketing antidote. Thank you. Okay, thank you very much. Sure.


What's up Mopar fam? I hope everybody's having a blessed day out there today We have a little project going on behind me as you guys can see We have a RAM 2500 and it's got a problem. We got a 14 RAM 2500 mega cab with the 64 Hemi and It's in for take a wild guess Ticking and rattling so we believe we got a bad Cam and lifter Going on with this truck So we're in the middle of the tear down as you can see We got a lot gone radiator assembly air box coolant box Lots of stuff already gone Tomorrow we're gonna start tearing into Getting the heads off and actually diagnosing if it's for sure the lifters and cam But we're pretty confident. That's what's going on. This truck has about 200,000 miles on it But we got good oil pressure. We got Clean oil still Customer took it in a couple days before he brought it to me actually had this truck shipped to Georgia From Florida for me to work on it. So it's pretty cool But he had it at an oil change shop that he knows and they screened the oil and No metal particles. It actually came out pretty clean. So we have hopefully Some hope that this motor is gonna be salvageable. It still runs pretty good. So hopefully it's just gonna be the straightforward cam and lifters and Go from there. So tomorrow we will find out but stay tuned. We're gonna actually be doing an upgrade on this 6-4 We're gonna go with a FRP Hellfire cam and that's basically his everyday driving towing cam It does have some chop to it. However, this truck is bone stock stock exhaust system So it's not loud So we'll probably be able to fill the chop maybe here a little bit, but with the stock exhaust system It's not going to be super noticeable. That's for sure But we're gonna add some horsepower add some torque and basically Main reason fix the problem We're gonna be running FRP tuning that I'm gonna upload and we'll do the data logging and everything Through me and through FRP So should be a good one.


Hi everyone it's Vicky here and welcome back! Today I'm sharing slimline cards. These are the new trend in card making. I personally like them because you have more real estate to cover up. I'm going to showcase new dice that have just been released by Waffle Flower. These are perfect for slimline cards and they are going to help you create really basic shapes and designs. So I'm going to share a few of ideas today. Αυτή η πρώτα είναι τα λαγκότητα, έχετε 7 λαγκότητες στον set, όλοι έχουν καλύτερη στιγμή all around και μπορείτε να δείτε ότι η καλύτερη στιγμή είναι καλύτερη για να δημιουργήσει στιγμή, όπως για να σκοτήσει το στιγμή σας. Κάθε άλλο είναι ένα καλύτερο ρεκταγλό με ένα καλύτερο στιγμή στιγμή και οι ένας μέχρις έχουν ένα σκαλόδι, οπότε μπορείτε να λαγκόψετε ένα από το άλλο και η καλύτερη στιγμή είναι ότι θα κάνουν στιγμή λαγκότητα πολύ εύκολα, γιατί θα κάνει το καλύτερο της εξογραμμής. Βέβαια ότι μετά από το αιθνό λαγκό, θα φύγει καλύτερο με το καλύτερο ρεκταγλό. Θα χρησιμοποιήσω αυτά τα λαγκότητα σε στιγμή στις στιγμή σας, θα δείτε τα εξογραμμή. Αυτό είναι το καλύτερο ρεκταγλό, πολύ εύκολο να δημιουργήσει ένα καλύτερο ρεκταγλό με αυτό. Έχει έναν λαγκότητα στις στις εξογραμμές, και χρησιμοποιηθεί 3,5 x 8,5, γιατί είναι η καλύτερη στιγμή λαγκότητα. Αυτό είναι τα στιγμή λαγκότητα της εξογραμμής, θα δείτε 7 εξογραμμές. Μπορείτε να χρησιμοποιήσεις το καλύτερο ρεκταγλό, για να βάσετε τα εξογραμμής του, όχι όλοι θα είναι τίποτα διαφορετικά με ένα λαγκότητα like αυτό, ξέρετε ότι όλες τα εξογραμμής θα είναι οδηγεί. Αυτό είναι το αίσθημα μου, αυτό είναι το λαγκότητας στις εξογραμμές. Θα εξηγήσω το βασίδιο, το αυτοίως, για να μπορείτε να δείτε τι έχετε. 3, σκουρά, λαγκότητα, και στο βασίδιο αυτές δεν θα πω τίποτα σε κάτι. Από όχι, αν θέλεις, μπορείτε να φύγεις μέσα σε αυτά τα λαγκότητα. Και μπορείτε να έχετε, για παράδειγμα, στις εξογραμμές εκεί. Τώρα θα σας δείξω πώς θα μπορείτε να χρησιμοποιήσεις. Αυτό θα χρησιμοποιήσω σε ένα από τα πράγματα μου στις εξογραμμές, αλλά αγαπηθώ ότι είναι μετά με εξογραμμές, εξογραμμές, εξογραμμές, εξογραμμές και εξογραμμές, και they have a lovely stitching on these shapes as well. Λοιπόν, θα ξεκινήσω με την πρώτη πράγματα για στις εξογραμμές. Και για αυτό θα χρησιμοποιήσω το τριό, λαγκότητα. Όπως μπορείτε να δείτε, είναι μεγαλύτερα από την εξογραμμή μου. Αυτό δεν είναι ένα πρόβλημα. Στη επιπ巾 τα τυρίδια, registόδarz δεν δείξει από τα γι συν στο δεν- flames. Δεν χρησιμοποιήσω από τα κρύστ вик steadachia πολ settings, λόγκινο χ αυτό δεν χρησιμοποιήσω. Αν κάντε τους λαγκότητας για να τα βλέπεις, το πτωλο μαίνει μόνο Castleа και π hierarchy.... Αυτό θα δείξει να δείξει την πάντα για την καρδιά σας και θα αφήνει 3,5 x 8,5. Και αυτό είναι το ίδιο σημαντικό κόμμα που θα δείξω. Μετά από την καρδιά της πάντα, θα βλέπεις τα 3 πάντα. Δεν αφήνουν τα κομμάτια, θα τους χρησιμοποιώ. Λοιπόν, θα μεταξύξεις με ένα καρδιά που έχει 3 πάντα και θα μεταξύξεις με ένα γέρο που μπορεί να αντιμετωπίσεις το σημεριό που θέλεις. Μετά από την κομμάτι της πάντα θα δείξω τις λεπτά που θα δείξουν και αυτές θα είναι την καρδιά για όλα αυτά τα κομμάτι. Για όλα αυτά τα κομμάτι θα δείξω ακόμα δικαίλες φορές και θα είμαι πρόκλημα να πάω με τα μυγίσια, τα γέρον και τα κρύσια. Αυτό για κάτι σκουράς θα χρησιμοποιώ ένα χωρό και ένα αγία κομμάτι για να μην γνώρισαν τόσο ευκαιρία, αλλά τώρα μετά από να κάνω αυτή η καρδιά θα μπορείς να χρησιμοποιώ κάποτες κόμμα για την καρδιά. Λately I tend to do all my inking on top of the media mats by Waffle Flower, this is the mini one, I like it because it's wide, you can wipe it off really easily, when I do my inking directly on top of my glass mat, just because it is black, I tend to forget to clean it up because I cannot see if it is dirty and then I transfer ink on my project, in places where I don't want to, so I am making an effort to always bring out that silicon mat, and do the inking there, so you see now I can tell easily that this is dirty, when you use the trio window panel it's really easy to come up with a design, so you have three windows, all you need to do is to add some creature for example inside or even flowers popping out of the windows, I am going with the panda from the Bee Hymn stamp set by Waffle Flower, it comes with many different creatures this one and even accessories to dress them up, there is a similar one which is called Bee Hair that I am going to use on the next card, now again different creatures along with accessories to dress them up, now I can use different creatures on each and every one of the windows to make it even more interesting, however I am going to keep it simple and I am just going to use the panda for all three windows, so just to demonstrate that you don't need to have too many stamps, just a flower in all three of the windows or just one creature is going to be just fine, I stamped him three times, used the matching die to die cut him and since the panda is black and white I am not going to bother with coloring, all I am doing is to add just a touch of pink on his cheeks, I am using foam tape at the back so that I can pop that on my card, and my card measures 3.5 x 8.5, now I have those three little squares that I inked up, these are going to be the backgrounds for all the three windows, I am going to stick them with glue, these are going to fit nicely inside those windows and they are going to fall there and although I am using the same focal point three times plus my focal point is black and white I am going to add color on the card by using those colorful backgrounds, super quick and simple, now I am going to decide where I want these guys to go and I am going to place them popping from the window from different directions just for the fun of it, I may chop a little bit from the bottom so that I can tuck them underneath the window in the corners and again you can dress them up if you have this stamp set however I decided to keep everything really simple, now you can stamp the sentiment at the bottom where you have that white big strip, however I decided to give them speech bubbles just for the fun of it, this is from an old die set which is called speech bubble die and it gives you many different sizes all the way from super huge to super small and I am going to stamp there happy happy birthday this sentiment comes from the waffle flower, a rainbow, stamp set but really any sentiment would work as long as you can separate it in three different areas so for example you can have thanks for everything or have a great day, just play around with what you have now just because I am obsessed with gems I always want to add a few here and there on my projects and I pick yellow for the yellow background, green for the green background and blue for the blue one so everything matches perfectly, I am going to add three of those gems in each one of those windows and I am going to call this card done, here are some close up photos where you can see that although I repeated the exact same image on all three windows it looks really interesting and I am super happy with the result For the second card I am going to play with the slim lace layers, I use the bigger one that has a scallop all around to cut out my main white panel and the smaller one that has that lovely stitching all around to die cut seven pieces of colored cardstock following rainbow order Now I am going to use my mistic just so that I can use the corner down there and I can align them easily one next to the other, of course you can use a T ruler for that all I want to do is to somehow put them together, you can even stick them on top of a scrap piece of paper Then I am going to keep them together with some washi tape and add at the back double sided tape, the easiest way of course would be to stick all of these strips of paper on top of a scrap cardstock however I didn't want to double up on cardstock since I am planning to use the scalloped edge die and run them through my die cutting machine This way I will end up with a rainbow panel that fits perfectly on top of the white panel that I did cut out earlier And you see here my washi tape was too tacky for the job so I am peeling off a little bit of the cardstock but that's not a problem since I did cut out way longer piece than I actually needed and I am going to cover it up later on I picked the unicorn from the be hair stamp set, I am going to stamp color it with my alcohol markers and then die cut it with a matching die Again this is really quick and simple coloring, I kept the actual animal white and just added a few accents Now I did die cut a couple of clouds, these are from the rainbow die set and you will see that I am even going to use my scissors and customize the bigger cloud a little bit But this is going to cover up too much of my focal point of my little unicorn Now I am using a very light blue ink, this is tumbled glass I believe to add just a touch of blue at the back so that when you place the clouds on top are not going to be white on white and they are going to pop a little bit more So now I am sticking down the rainbow and this is a great idea to cover up lots of real estate on top of a slimline card and then just add clouds on the top So you see I did customize the larger cloud to make it just a touch smaller to not cover up too much of the unicorn For the smaller of the clouds I went completely flat with glue while for the bigger cloud I am using foam tape and I am going to pop it at the top of my rainbow The idea is to cover up that straight line at the top of the rainbow so you don't see that at all And then you can have a sentiment stamped on the bigger white cloud you can have a sentiment at the bottom of the rainbow I decided to go with a die-cut word that says rainbows again from the same set as the clouds And I am going to finish it off with a stamped sentiment that says of wishes so it is going to read rainbows of wishes And I am absolutely in love with this colorful card I think it is going to make the recipient super happy And to tell you the truth I absolutely love all three of the slimline cards that I made for today So let's move on to the third and last card And this time I am using the large panel with the stripes now this makes a slimline card super easy All you have to do is to die-cut a panel and then die-cut different colored cardstock or pattern paper and fill it in This is going to create a lovely colorful background and you can use it for pretty much any occasion And I don't know what it is about stitched lines but they really make a project come together it gives that professional look So anyway I did die-cut the main panel out of a white cardstock but I am not going to throw these ones These are perfect for stamping sentiments and use them on cards later on so no waste here For die-cutting the strips for the inside I am going to use pattern paper by Waffle Flower These are the Christmas dots and lines these are really basic although they are marketed as Christmas I think that you can use them throughout the year since they have lots of basic colors along with stripes and dots You will find solid colors you will find different designs And if you are not familiar with this pattern paper by Waffle Flower check them out They do have many of these pads in different color combos and the fun part is that they are very thick They are 80 pounds of cardstock so this means that when you cut out one of those pages You can fold it in half and you can have a card base out of it It is also thick enough to die-cut pieces and they are going to have a good substantial thickness And check this out the inside is white to write or stamp your message and you get a bonus design at the back There are 36 pages in each pack and there are 12 different designs included For today's card I am going for Christmas card so I will use the solid red one for the letters As well as the different 3 solid colors of shades of green for the inserts But remember you can use them throughout the year I highly recommend them because you get all these value for just $10 And you will find the links down below You can see all the different color combos that are available So back to the card all I did was to stick that panel on top of my card base And now I am going to place inside the 3 shades of green that I have I am going to repeat the same pattern from darker to lighter and then back again I am sticking everything down with my Nuvo Deluxe Glue Everything fits nicely inside like a puzzle It's a super easy and fun pattern to create You can play with different color combos for all occasions And you can use up your scraps pattern papers for that Now I do end up having lots and lots of those strips So I can make more than one card with the die cutting that I already did With the 3 different colors of cardstock I am going for Christmas card so I am going to use this new alpha die This is the white alpha die by Waffle Flower And I am going to spell Mary Now mine is a prototype So don't worry, yours are going to come nicely packaged I am going to use the solid red from this pad And cut out all the letters that I need I am going to add a tiny little foam tape at the back And then place them on top of my panel I need to make sure that these are nicely aligned That's why I am using a ruler to make sure that they are straight As well as centered So you see I am playing a little bit with replacement Before I peel off the backing And then once I am happy I am going to stick them down I stamped the word everything to complete my sentiment And of course you can go with Christmas And I don't know if you can notice But this white strip of paper is actually one of the die cut pieces When I die cut the panel Now I am going to embarrass my sentiment On the left and on the right With a few holly berries that I have on hand And this is going to finish off my card Just like always you will find links to all the products That I use to create my 3 cards Down below in the description area This video is also part of a blog hope There are lots of giveaways to be won So make sure to visit my blog to find out all about it I hope that you had fun today, that you got inspired Thank you all so much for visiting And I hope you will all have a lovely weekend


Quasars are brilliant beacons of intense light from the centers of distant galaxies. They are powered by supermassive black holes, growing on in falling matter that unleashes massive amounts of radiation at the event horizon. They are scattered all across the sky and were most abundant 10 billion years ago. These Hubble images reveal two pairs of Quasars that reside at the hearts of merging galaxies. These galaxies, however, cannot be seen because they are too faint even for Hubble. We're hoping the James Webb Space Telescope, currently at the L2 point, being calibrated, will give us a good look at the galaxies around these Quasars. These Quasars will tighten their orbits until they eventually spiral together and coalesce resulting in an even more massive but solitary black hole.


Everybody forced here ripping 20 23 Bowman draft baseball choice in Super Jumbo seven box make sure number seven pick your team style Got ammo with the Cubs Anton the Reds Carol Braves Chris L red socks and Phillies Chris V brewers Christopher C white socks Edward P with the Royals Eric W. Giants Gabriel C The Rangers Mets and Mariners Jeffrey H. Tigers Jeremy H. Twins Kenny K Ray's Kubong with the Guardians Logan H. Cardinals Mackenzie with the D-backs Mark L Dodgers Matthew BU Marlins Matthew B. E Yankees, but Dias with the Jays Michael P. Rockies Michael Y. A's Mike D. Pirates and Nats Murray with the Astros Stuart S. Orioles Tatsuya Angels and Zhentow with the Padres Yes, we need we need more likes be sure to like the stream. We do appreciate it 30 likes Matt gives me a big cradle for the Million time this week Yeah, they know they know him by first name for the dance What 30 likes I don't know about that That's what I heard. I don't know about that. That's right. I heard I heard rich say it too. It's what he wanted for his birthday No, no, it's like the last thing he wants a Green and red paper 10 of 10 Nolan McLean for the Reds green and a red paper Lean for the Mets And paper base split even here in this break You get numbered paper, of course. It's not base fractures of It's like reverse this time And it was the last number of this refractors of the taunty a Kunya led better Meyer Alderman Espinosa Taylor Salas and a Colin howke first woman auto for the Mets first howke that we've seen at least that we've seen today We're gonna get that one dust off and top of it for you. There you go, New York Mets Crawford and Chorydiva Skeens insert and a gold max Clark seven of fifty Tigers Great card That's what we're looking for right there Jeffrey with a tiger. Jeffrey's hitting today, man seven of fifty gold Clark Sears Clark that's going into a mag geez Alrighty then that's a great way to start The first pack of the break aqua pink to 199 is Homer Bush, Jr. Padres That's Bowman glass Dylan Dylan head for the brewer up reverse Padres here aqua lava or aqua wave to 125 Carrick for the Rockies Alrighty Head Guy refractors Jacob Wilson Hunter Owen Marcus Brown Levi Wells nap chick Montgomery Orphan Cravey and a match saw first auto for the Cubs first match saw of the day to nice hit Cubs Great box we got going here ammo with the Cubs Arias and Collier All right Brandon Taylor lunar glow of Marcus Brown for the Nationals and everyone's quiet today a lot of people watching to Fractures of Mooth Woodward Mahoney. Oh hollerin Morris Savakul Cunningham and Jet Williams Cubs auto again here Michael Carrick. Oh this time first Bowman Jackson holiday Jacob Wilson a lot of paper bases like more That's what we needed more paper base That's what the people wanted exactly Bowman glass of Tai Pete for the Mariners Awkward 125 lunar crater Picard for the Royals I think that's fair Yeah, yeah, I agree with that list There's a Clark base for the Tigers Fractures, there's a Clark refractor for the Tigers Reed Burns Rada O'Donnell That's Questad Hawk Munoz Alberto Rios Angels first bowman auto Langford and Clark inserts Max Clark insert for the Tigers a purple refractor TJ Nichols raised a 250 Refractors of Rocco Forte Lee Zanatello Gilbert Max Anderson Castro Matt Shaw and Celestyn and a Paul Wilson sparkle first bowman autograph for the Tigers This one's gonna be numbered 15 of 71 There you go with Tigers Really good break for the Tigers James Wood and Tommy Troy and we're now getting into the choice case y'all price of sketch card By artist and by subject and it's not easy to do If it's the right character you can put it on auction it would sell pretty well It's the right artist same thing Otherwise you're probably better off like it takes some time to sell Star Wars market moves a little slower than others Best bet is to look up sketches of like the artist First and find out what they sell for and then like the character honestly That's really the only way to go about it since we're all unique one-of-ones Purple Chrome to 250 first auto Grant Taylor for the for the White Sox Yeah, Brady's possible in all of it great to go to 250 White Sox Gold shimmer first for the med Zach Thornton nice hit for the meds here seven out of 50 good stuff and A choice to 150 first auto and Ricky Bradfield jr. For the Orioles very good very awesome card here 91 of 150 Bradfield I guess if there's a place that I would that has faster wings that I would trust it's probably Yeah, we stop just does wings like that's pretty solid Yeah, that's fair. They're actually deep like at first like I didn't like them like a long time ago I think they're solid now Aqua lava what first woman auto jb shears for the Padres we're gonna get that one dusted off a spree Yeah, it's a dust from that foam piece that they insert Obviously look your cards are for grading anyway, but I want to get obvious dust off of it Choice Ralphie of Alaska's Guardians first woman autograph Number 128 out of 150. Oh nice of Alaska's Guardians and a Gold wave first bowman auto Orioles Mac Horvath No way Baltimore Stewart with Baltimore Holy cow 21 of 50. Hey guys still teams on Natix live bowman draft right now Tigers and Mariners some big teams, too Can't find tigers available any of our breaks today over here. We love first woman auto is Landon Maraudis first ones in these Maraudis for the Jays We're 65 of 99 got a base first woman auto Guardians Tommy Hawk Tommy Hawk And a choice to 150 first woman autograph Bryce Eldridge for the Giants 18 of 150 heck. Yeah Potential two-way player in the future Awesome hit Giants. That's a good color on the front there.  So much as it's gonna be legit Purple Chrome TJ Nichols the 250 aqua pink paper Homer Bush, Jr Got Picard to 125 same with Karrig What do you mean Green and red McLean it's in Dylan head Maui Ohuna Sabin Sabios Tommy Hawk Alberto Rios Michael Carrick oh Shaw there Matt Shaw and Colin Howe I think it's starting this one too All right, 250 is Grant Taylor to 199 Beshears to 150 Max Anderson 250 Velasquez Dylan head and AJ Ewing to 99 Ethan O'Donnell Landon Maraudis Matt Shaw on the Bowman glass insert auto Cubs in 99 Sparkle the 71 Paul Wilson Tigers auto the gold shimmer Zach Thorne for the Mets Choice to 150 first woman auto Enrique Bradfield, Jr. For the Orioles Bryce Eldridge Giants to 150 Goldwave whore bath for the Orioles Orioles it really well 21 to 50 on the whore bath orange wave of Homer Bush, Jr. First auto for the Padres 4 of 25 and A true gold Max Clark 7 of 50 for the Tigers in the base parallel All right, that will do it other mixer coming up. Thanks again everybody


So my bare beauty for people I am back with another out and ring video and today guys I showcase to you how you can get this easily missable Curve Sword known as the Grills Messer. How's it going guys my name's DPJ and if you do enjoy the video leave a like who really helps out and if you like what you see and want to see more be sure to subscribe. Okay so the Grills Messer is a Curve Sword. I'm probably saying that wrong to be honest guys it's probably pronounced um well you know I'm like my English but hey either way this Curve Sword is actually pretty rare to get I'd probably say about 89.943% people will know about this weapon and where to get it from I know that number because of my whatsapp group you know me and now all jokes aside it's a weapon that's easily missable it's a super rare drop from you know those skeletons you see within those catacombs it drops from them I'm not sure if every catacombs has these skeletons which drop this weapon but either way guys it's pretty cool um draw real this bad boy get that amazing jump mid air attack we hit about 25 times you know what I mean two shots every boss in the game not really don't believe that wall crap but yes um it scales with that strength and that dexterity attributes required are 14 in strength and 12 in that dexterity you can apply a natural to this guys so yes making it much much better and well customizable as we love now I above and level leveling these up because it ain't really my kind of weapon I mean they are as good as they are like I said I've seen videos couple videos on these saying they're amazing it's a bleed is it a bleed weapon or do you have to make it a bleed weapon people I get so confused by some of these in some of these videos it's ain't no bleed weapon you can make it a bleed weapon by putting a national war uh skill on it yeah but that doesn't mean it's a naturally a bleed weapon gee that's a bleed weapon that's a bloodlust build-up weapon uh-uh but hey okay so where this is going from is where I got it from this cat comes right here and I'll show you exactly how to do this now I'm going to lead you from the bridge because obviously a lot of people won't have got to this point yet it can be a little confusion to get here so I'm going to use it I'm gonna well this this place here you can't miss guys so from this grace point right here guys I'll show you where to get this now you will need a stone saw key we don't actually need one but to make the farm more efficient a stone saw key would be beneficial but hey okay so where we at this grace point guys pull out your your horse your mount I mean I gotta head down and then go to our right so I just want to jump off here well actually you'll come across the bridge if you haven't got that grace point you'll come across that bridge and then straight down here past that girl on your left who I haven't even spoken to yet 520 hours playthrough haven't spoken to her yet as you do big giant on your right run past him ignore all these dudes just sprint past them all guys just sprint past them all run past all these two just go go go go and up here we want to take a sharp turn to our right just like that I'm just gonna go forward we'll go through like a little pond I believe if I remember correctly so run through here just like so now we're comfortable like a carriage behind the carriage is um actually you can probably go up that way across that bridge but no we're gonna go this way we're gonna keep going this way because it's the way I know yeah but we are in that carriage is one of those jump pads for your horse so yeah that's the way we've been I had to get uh ruins and what even happened and I can see the is it a carriage or is it a building I don't know it's probably just a building yeah it's a building it's not a carriage my bad my bad people but yeah there's a jump pad so we're gonna jump up here just like so and we're gonna go up there actually but we're gonna run around so we're gonna land right here come this way people you can probably still hear my voice just getting over this crazy ass cord I've had crazy ass cord I've had so yeah still still coughing a bit the nose is a little bit blocked still but hey it's here so there's where we're marked on the map guys and the cat combs is literally behind this pillow by these jellyfish and just run through the door and there is a grace point right in front of you now this is a grace point we're gonna run back to uh so you activate that you run down here now this is where the stone saw key is needed right there so use that now I'm gonna put on a weapon which I was using because there's one of the guys in here that drops this uh this so it's him here but there's a guy that spawns behind you with a shield who can be annoying so yeah if you just pop this in middle of the room you know how to get that second phase where they get back up just keep doing this and farm them and then what you do guys is you'd run back up that is not the weapon by the way you'd run up back up to here sit back down rinse and repeat guys rinse and repeat so yes like I said on the guy in the far left corner can drop this this guy right here this guy right here you can see the difference with the weapon it's way way bigger than the one he's holding and like I will say as well I farmed this for so long it just wasn't dropping for me trying my hardest using my tier mask using my silver scarab wasn't having anything now if you haven't got a stone saw key you want to farm this you can come down here um take another right down here uh not this guy but there's a skeleton that was spawned right there let's take out him so he burns me alive you can see this skeleton right there farm him too there are a few others down as well but it's just way more efficient just to run back up to the grace or even teleport back to the grace and run back down as simple as that guys and like I said you want to dual wield these so you want to obviously farm two of them if you haven't got a pal to drop you one but there we have it guys that is how you get the girls musa curved sword pretty cool pretty badass I'm sorry jellyfish you go down but yeah if you're a collector like me you want every weapon in the game these are one for that collection but guys if you enjoyed the video leaving a like really helps out if you like what you see I'm going to see more out of the ring be sure to subscribe and hopefully my beauty for people I will see you on that next one


Welcome back to Vlogmas. Today is Day 16, December 16th. No, it's not. It's 18th. Today is December 19th, Day 19 of Vlogmas. I am here in beautiful Prescott Valley, technically. My parents are living in a rental home right now in Prescott Valley while they wait for their new house to be built and I'm running to the store. Cash has a little cold so I'm running out to get him a little bit of medicine so that he feels better. We need coffee, creamer, cornstarch and pickles because we're going to be making grinders. So I'm off to grab some pickles and some random other stuff. So yeah, morning. Happy Day 20. I know. Look at that mustache. Look at that. You are so cute. You're so handsome. Getting ready for my western days. Scott's trying to be a Yellowstone man. That's right. So it is December 20th and we are leaving Prescott right now and we don't have cash in the back. So we have an appointment this afternoon with our project manager. We're meeting with our project manager this morning to pick out Granite and carpet. Scott has to work this afternoon so we're driving down together to do those things and then we're going to drop him off in Queen Creek and then I'm going to come back up here until Thursday because he's working anyways and I don't really want to entertain a toddler in a hotel room for four days. So I'm going to come back up here, hang out with my mom and dad, take cash to hiking club with my sister and then Thursday Cash and I will go back down to join him for Christmas Eve. Then we'll come up together Christmas Eve night and then he will leave Sunday and leave me here. Did you hear? Yep. Then you'll come get me for New Year's? Maybe. Maybe, okay. See if I have to spend the New Year with him. So it's currently 7.15 in the morning. Our appointment is at 9. It takes about an hour and a half to get down to Timb. So we're hoping that we can get down there early, grab some breakfast and then have our meeting. So there's no accidents on the 17 because let me tell you people out here in Arizona on the 17 just think that it's like a raceway and then they're like bumper to bumper and then they collect and then oh look something in the roadway. Can we just talk about how beautiful it is up here though? See how beautiful we look. I miss this view. Every morning waking up and this is what you drive around. Yeah, and I used to drive just right here. And you were home? Or you were home? You were at school? Yep. Oh look, DPS right getting somebody. Starting early. Scoot over guys. But he's scooched over. He's writing where it goes so that one when they put it back. No, I'm just kidding. So he's gonna bring out samples. Hey guys, so it is now much much later. It's 1 30 in the afternoon. I just ran through In-N-Out Burger. Scott and I picked our granite slab as you guys saw and then we had to run home to our house and meet the carpet vendor there. And then we chose our carpet colors which I do have a picture I will insert here. And now I'm heading back up to Prescott. I think I'm gonna stop and grab some gas first.  Even though I'm sure I have enough gas now. Take it up there. I might as well fill up now. And then once I'm there I don't need to fill up again to come now. So I just have to say that one thing that I really love about Arizona is the fact that pretty much everywhere when you're driving especially in the valley area you can see for hundreds of miles. And I love that. Maybe not hundreds of miles. Maybe like a hundred miles in either direction. But I just love that about Arizona. I absolutely hate that we don't have four seasons. Hate that. But look at these views. Two of my left. About a two and a half hour drive. I am totally by myself which is fine. I've done this drive a hundred times. Cash is up in Prescott with my mom and dad. Actually right now we decided not to bring him down for this quick little day trip because he just wouldn't have had any fun at the tile place and running back and forth to the house. It just made more sense to leave him there with my parents and he's having a blast. So he's there. I'm on the road and Scott is officially at work for the next four days. Okay guys I made it. So I got here around four o'clock and I brought my computer in so that I can start doing some editing. We just took the dogs to the dog park and cash to ride his bike and now we're just gonna chill here for the rest of the evening. I think I might film the intro and outro of my Secret Santa video tomorrow. That way I can wake up, wash my hair, blow dry it, get ready for the day and then I'll film all of that. What are you doing? It's not a smart idea. How are you gonna get down? Yeah I'm holding your chair so you don't fall out. Vlogmas Day 21. It is Tuesday December 21st. I am still up here at my parents' house. Just got finished eating lunch with Cam. The intro and outro to my Secret Santa video. It is posted and ready to go live on Christmas morning. So that is the date that we've all decided to post our video.  But Cash and I are tired of being stuck in this house.  You wanna go to the park? Okay. So I'm gonna take him to the park. He is a little under the weather.  And so I'm not trying to take him to any places where there's gonna be a ton of people. And the park is outside and there's a little park just down the street that not a lot of people go to. So I was gonna take him to Hiking Club with my sister's company today. She owns a little adventure club here in town and she does a preschool class.  So we are gonna go check out the park and see if it's very busy. If not, we will go. And then I do need to go to Hobby Lobby. So when my dad comes home, he will hang out with Cash while I run to Hobby Lobby. I need to pick up a couple of last minute gift things. Um, my mom and mother-in-law are getting kind of like a twin gift there. Getting Cash's school pictures in a frame.  But anyway, I need to do that. So we are off to the park. Okay, so I'm sitting here editing this. I wanted to close it out. Today is December 22nd. I'll be starting my final vlogmas video. And yeah, I just wanted to close out today's video. Thank you guys for watching. I know these aren't like my normal vlogs, but they are kind of fun to film. So hopefully you're enjoying them. I certainly am. I need to be better at like being like a daily vlogger and like filming everything. I guess I'm just like out of touch with how to film stuff. Like I feel like if I did it daily, it would be different because then I'd pick it up more.  But I will try harder for this next two days of vlogging. Yeah. Um, because Christmas Day, I will have a Secret Santa video up and that will be the last vlogmas video. So again, thank you guys for watching and so glad you're here and I'll see you in the next one. Bye.


It may seem as though they're acting unwisely. As though they're ill-advised or foolish. But they actually know exactly what they're doing. They know that they are playing you. They know that they're tricking and deceiving you. They're pulling the wool over your eyes. They're hiding the truth from you. But they put on a show. They make you believe that they're about something for real. When in reality they're not about anything. They created this false character which they displayed to you. They mirrored your interests and ideals.  When the reality gives that they don't even exist. You're holding onto something which isn't even there. Which is exactly what they want. Because then you're validating the illusion. Which gives them supply. It gives them a thrill. Because then in that moment it makes them feel like they are real. Like they do have something worthwhile. When the reality gives that they don't actually have anything. They just tricked you into thinking that they did. Which is where their power to manipulate you comes from. Their power comes from your belief. But deep down they already know that they don't have anything. And they're not about anything. They're fully aware of that already. The game is just to trick you into overvaluing them and overestimating their importance. So that you attach to them and give them fuel. When the reality gives that you're attaching to something that has no value. So you're only going to be left feeling disappointed and dissatisfied. Because they can't give you something that they don't have. So the best you will ever get from them is an illusion. Which is how it's so easy for them to devalue you and discard you. Because they already know that there's no future in something that started out as a game. They already know that once you figure out that they just manipulated you and give you a false character. You're not going to want anything to do with them anyway.  Because they can be very convincing. They've had years of practice at manipulating the unsuspecting victims. So they already know exactly what they need to do. To make you believe that they're about something. But the illusion falls apart when they eventually don't do what they said they were going to do. Or at least it should fall apart. But many victims are so brainwashed by these narcissists that they begin to question themselves. They begin to question their own worth.  So if you're going to willingly start questioning your own worth they'll jump on the bandwagon. They'll join you and support you in that. Even though they're actually just giving you another false character. They already recognize your worth. They already know that you're real and authentic. That's why they came around you in the first place. To rob you of your authentic qualities and virtues.  But now that you have found my content.   They will never do what they say they're going to do. They will never follow their words up with action. Which is a typical thing that covert narcissists will do. Instead they will be passive aggressive. They will be in indirect resistance to your wishes or needs. While in avoidance of direct confrontation. They will indirectly express negative feelings. Instead of openly addressing them. Because in their minds it's unfair. Because they're actually very envious, jealous and resentful of you. And in many situations you may actually hold nothing more than a illusion of significance to them. Because they may already have other sources of supply. Who are more susceptible to their manipulation. People who are there playing for fools. So they don't really need you anyway. Because they determine a person's value by what that person is going to do for them. Rather than who that person actually is. So if you start to catch on that they're deceiving you.  They're just going to see you as a lost cause.  Because they look at it like you're either going to play my game or you're not. And to see that their way or the highway. You either validate the illusion or you serve no useful purpose. Because they have no other purpose for people other than that. You're just a means to an end. And even if you do validate the illusion. That's the best you're going to get from them. Because all they have to offer you is an illusion. They expect you to see it as a privilege just to be around them. So it will only ever be a game. It will never be anything real. Anything that's grounded in reality. Because their power can only exist outside of reality. In your imagination. Which is why they have to get inside your mind. It's why they have to dominate and control your thoughts and feelings. And it's why nothing they say or imply will ever manifest into reality. Because it was never real to begin with. It never stemmed from any genuine desire or interest. Because they already know that they're not real. So by default all they can do is manipulate you. Which means that from the beginning they're only going to see you as something temporary. As something that's only useful for as long as they can pull the ball over your eyes. Because after that you're never going to see them the same way. And instead you're going to keep your power to yourself. Which means that they will lose the ability to control you. Because their power comes from you. It comes from their ability to affect you. But they can only affect you if you believe in them. And you will only believe in them. If they can get you to detach from reality. By overvaluing them and overestimating their importance. By assuming that they have something. All that they're going to do what they say they're going to do. Which means that it's all in your mind. It has no basis in reality. Unless you choose to take action or do something with it. Because you're the only one who has the power in this situation. Which is why if you take a back seat and you take on a less important role or position. You're only going to be left feeling disappointed and dissatisfied. Because they lack the power to perform. Their power only comes from getting you to believe in something that isn't true or real. It doesn't come from anything that is actually grounded in reality. If it did. You never would have experienced any bad feelings. And then you would never have found my videos. Because when all is said and done. You're the one who is left to take on the authoritative role. The power will always return to where it belongs. To where it's supposed to be. To the person who will not abuse it. The person who will do what they're actually supposed to do. Because it's the people who aren't narcissists. Who end up having to clean things up. They're the ones who are left to try to improve the situation. By doing something that the narcissist has not done or completed. Because even if you confront them.  They're not going to own up to it. Because they already know that it would just leave them in a weaker and more vulnerable position. Since they don't even have the means to do what they said they were going to do. So all they can do is project it onto you. To try to make you feel insecure. And they are masters of manipulation. They've had years of practice. Because it's the only way they knew to survive. By tricking and deceiving people. Because they're very weak and ineffective. So they always manage to avoid criticism and keep a good reputation. Even after they have done things wrong. Which means that their issues go unnoticed. And they never have to take accountability. And instead the people who are powerful and effective. Are the ones who are left to take the blame. They're the ones who are left to clean up their mess. Which means that we are essentially empowering the weakest and most ineffective people in our society. While punishing and keeping down those who should be in a position of power. Because they're the ones who aren't going to misuse their power. Or use it for their own self-seeker motives. Thank you for watching. If you found this video helpful please give it a thumbs up. Share your thoughts in the comments section. Hit the subscribe button to receive the notifications. If you would like to support the channel you can donate at payble.me slash narc-survivor. You can book a one on one with me on my website. It's narc-survivor.co.uk. Thank you for watching and I'll talk to you soon.


2D femisuperfluid Higgs mode is observed at small transferred momentum and its visibility depends on interaction strength while in large transferred momentum regime, stronger interaction strength induces weight changes of molecules and atoms, showing pairing information of femisuperfluid.