Good morning. Hi, my name is Sarah Ladisla. I'm the director of the Energy and National Security Program here at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. We're very pleased to have all of you here in the room and the folks that are joining us on the web for what is one of our favorite events of the year. We have Fatih Baroul here with us today from the International Energy Agency. Fatih is the chief economist at the IEA and also sort of the lead author on the World Energy Outlook, a publication that we know all of you have come to count on as a source of insights and analysis on some of the key energy trends facing the energy sector and some of the sort of ongoing political and these days geopolitical issues that we're discussing on a day-to-day basis. We're very, very pleased to have Fatih here. This is, I don't even know how long we've been hosting the WIO and it is always one of our consistently very, very popular events. So we're very pleased to have all of you here today. It's actually quite shocking to have as many of you here on a Thanksgiving week as this, so that is a real true testament to the work that Fatih and his team put together. So without further ado, we'll have Fatih give his presentation of this year's World Energy Outlook. It has a focus on nuclear energy and also a special report that you all put out in October on Sub-Saharan Africa. But then also just the insights on sort of the policy direction, impacts on climate change, oil markets and all of the things that we've come to really appreciate about the work that Fatih's team puts together in each of these reports. So we'll have a bit of a presentation and then we'll have a discussion with all of you looking forward to it. So please join me in welcoming Fatih Barul. So thank you very much, Sarah and a very good morning to you ladies and gentlemen. It is always a great pleasure to come back to CSIS. Sarah said it's one of our favorite events and I can assure you that CSIS is one of our most favorite venues to present our outlook. We are always very happy to have this warm welcome from Sarah, Frank, Mr. Hamre and others. Now today, I would like to take you through our last virtual 2014 that we published two weeks ago. And I will first try to take you through what is the energy context we are in, we believe and then try to give a look at the future. And after the presentation, as Sarah mentioned, we will be very happy to get your questions, comments, suggestions. I should also thank, there are many colleagues here who gave a hand to our work colleagues from DOEIC here, Matt and I have my colleagues here, Brent and Ali helping us. Mr. Hamre, Frank, Sarah gave a very good contribution. Thank you very much to all of them. Now where are we today? First of all, the current calm in the energy markets, we believe, should not mask the challenges we have in front of us. We believe energy security set the move high up in the international policy agenda very soon, higher than it is today. We see oil prices coming to $80 in terms of the Brent prices, lots of oil in the markets, supply is plenty, demand is weak. But what is happening in Middle East may well have major implications, as I will try to highlight in a minute, for the oil markets sometime soon. In terms of gas markets, we are seeing the same moving third time in Europe especially. We see that the gas security is a permanent and a serious issue, and putting these two things together, looking at the countries where today we see some tensions, such as Iraq, other Middle East countries, Libya, Russia, Ukraine, our first thesis is, despite the slow down in the prices, prices coming down, despite the less tension visible today, oil and gas security will be crucial for the international policy agenda in the next years to come. The second point, which is a stress point in our energy system is about the climate change. We have mixed signals, we are getting mixed signals about climate change. Of course, one very good news, and I will count it in a minute, U.S.-China joint commitment, in terms of reducing these U.S. emissions, following the European Union's leaders having a 40% reduction 2030 commitment. This is, of course, a good one. But when we look at the numbers, our report shows that last year, COT emissions increased again 2.6%, which puts the world perfectly in line with a temperature increase about 3.6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating implications for all of us. And of this growth, about 60% of that growth came from one country last year, which is China. Second, a rather important issue that we highlight every year and we follow up very closely and providing policy recommendations is the fossil fuel subsidies for the consumers. In many countries, consumers at the pump station, electricity bill, and so on, pay artificially low prices, extremely cheap prices, much, much, much cheaper than their economic value. And this is mainly in Middle East countries, in Russia, Caspian countries, in Asia, China, India, Indonesia. What does this mean? To put a subsidy to make the coal-oil-yarn gas prices much cheaper than what the governments are saying. The governments are saying to the consumers, to their citizens, please do dirty the world. If you do so, I will pay you money. This is more or less the translation of it. Or another translation would be giving money to making the things much cheaper than what they are. Please don't worry. Use the energy in an inefficient manner. Don't care about the efficiency. You use it as much as you can. This is the messages are given by the governments to their citizens. But in line with our recommendations and the recommendation of others, some countries now are taking the lower oil prices as an opportunity to phase out those subsidies, such as one in Indonesia. Now there's a major reform process in Indonesia and some other countries. But this is a major problem. Third, I think a good news is about an efficiency front. There are colleagues who are much more experienced than me and worked in the governments. They all knew, would tell us, that efficiency is a concept, is a statement. Came out in almost every government's programs, leaders' speeches, the modest presentations like this, and so on, many, many years. But for the first term, we are seeing significant impact of efficiency policies on trends, on numbers, the concrete effect in terms of slowing down the energy demand growth in the countries, in the areas where those policies are introduced. This is extremely good and I will give you some examples on that. But one number that is, I believe, is a very interesting number. Today, in the world, three out of four new cars sold are subject to fuel efficiency standards. And it's new. And it's very good. A force that started in Japan, in Europe, followed by in the US, especially first Obama administration, putting the new standards, and then followed by China and now in India. Now, we are going to see all these two stress points under climate change and under energy security. They are both very important stress points and complex, the lots of interwoven aspects there. The question is, this change to address them, are they going to be changed by the government policies and steer them in the right direction or the change will be driven by the events themselves? And we do believe the first one may well be better. So looking at the future. In the future, we see a change about the contribution of different countries in the global energy demand. When you look at the last 10 years, global energy demand increased by 30% in 10 years. It's a big increase. And about half that growth came from one country, which is China. And in those countries, US, Japan, European countries put together, their energy demand was more or less flat. And we expect this to be flat for the next years to come. There's upward pressure on with the economic growth. But also strong downward pressure on the efficiency gains, so more or less flat. The news is, at least for me, is that we expect China to slow down. And this says, ladies and gentlemen, effect on everything, oil, coal, investments, CO2, and everything, it will have major effects. And why China is slowing down? There are three reasons. One, I mentioned the efficiency policies. If there is one country I have to pick up and say, this country has very ambitious policies, plus, more importantly, implements them and monitors the results. It is China, by far. Second reason is the Chinese economy is slowing down and changes the nature, moving from a heavy industry-based economy to a slowly but surely a lighter economy. This is the second reason why we see a slow down energy demand growth. And third, Chinese population, it is coming to a peak sometime soon and then will decline, the aging process following the example of Japan. As a result of these three reasons, we expect the dragon will slow down with all its implications on the energy markets and climate change. But there is a new driver now of the global energy demand growth, which is India plus East Asia and the Middle East countries. They are the engine of the global energy demand growth. And we are already seeing in the last two or three years the numbers are changing while China, when you look at the last two years, China energy demand got slowed down considerably and the others are growing very strongly. Now something on the costs, which is a major issue in Europe, in Japan, and other countries, are we going to lose our competitiveness vis-à-vis United States because of the cost of energy? And our answer is most likely yes. With the current policies in place, with the current trends in place, most likely yes. What we have done, we look at the average cost of energy a consumer pays in different countries, a household, an industry, what they pay for one unit of energy in the past and in the future. How does it change in different countries the cost of energy to the economy, the consumers? When we look at the 2008, there was only the some difference between Europe, Japan, and the United States in favor of US. And after the Shade Revolution, while we see the cost of energy for one unit of energy decline in the United States, it increase almost everywhere else, which puts the United States in a very advantageous position. And the question is, what is in the future? What we expect is it will still be a significant gap in terms of cost of energy between US versus Japan and Europe. But more importantly, perhaps much more importantly, we expect Chinese cost of energy will be higher than even the United States. This is mainly as a result of China declining to reducing the share of dirty but cheap coal and replacing it with other fuels. This is, of course, an issue which is a good news for the United States. We hold a strong position with almost all other major players here, and therefore something to take note of. Of course, distance may well change as a result of efficiency policies. If we use energy more efficiently, we can lower the cost of energy down. Now, an issue about oil markets, something that we feel, we need to put the things a bit in a perspective after the Shade Revolution in the United States. Many colleagues, many commentators, many of us think that as a result of the Shade Oil Revolution in the United States now, and the price are going down, then the situation looks much, much better and more comfortable for the many years to come, a view that we strongly disagree. For the following reason, first of all, between now and the next 2 and 1 half decades, global oil demand will increase 14 millimbares per day, a modest but a healthy increase, global oil demand. The question is, who is going to meet that demand growth? Which countries? When we look at it, when we look around, there are four strong shoulders. US, Canada, Brazil, and Middle East. All the other countries put together, North Sea, Russia, Mexico, some increase a bit, some decrease a bit, but in total, in some, they see a bit of a there, total production, a bit of a decline. So how are we going to meet that demand growth? United States, we expect the oil production mainly coming from Shade will increase through 2020s, a very good increase, which is a very good news for the global markets. I think today the consumers in the world, all of the United States, that the price of oil recently and now are kept in a level which is providing a comfort zone for the consumers, a very good news. But when we look at the deposits of the Shade oil, we expect the growth will be significant, but this is far from meeting the entire global oil demand growth, and we expect, as our colleagues from the EIA, sometime soon that growth will come to a plateau. From Canada, we also expect strong growth coming from oil sands, even though there are some challenges, we believe those challenges can be overcome, and we may well see a growth coming from Canada, which makes an important contribution. And the third strong shoulder is Brazil. Offshore production, when we look at all these projects, we can see expect a significant growth coming from Brazil. But there is a big gap, especially around 2020s when the production growth from, yes, slows down. Where will the oil come from? And there is only one address, which is the Middle East. If you know anything else, any problems that we forgot, please let us know. But this is the Middle East. And it is the very reason why we are very worried, among other things, about the current developments in Middle East. Because of this growth in Middle East, half of it needs to come from one country, which is Iraq. When you look at the size of the reserves, when you look at the ongoing plans, when you look at the virginity of the fields, it is Iraq. It's not only our view, it's a view of almost many serious organizations working on that. And in Iraq, of course, very easy geology, chip to produce the oil, everything is OK. And the only thing is that you have to invest every year, $15 billion to make that oil come to the markets. But today, in this security situation, I think the appetite to invest in Iraq and Middle East countries, many Middle East countries, are close to zero. And assuming that the issue of the security issue today in Iraq and elsewhere will not be resolved tomorrow, will be with us for some time to come, this is, we believe, a major issue. Because if you want to see a production growth in 2020's Middle East, we have to invest today. It is not like electricity button, you just push the button and the light comes out. There are many oil colleagues here who know it better than me. You need at least five, six years of a lead time of a project. And if you aren't able to invest now, how are we going to see the production growth, which is a badly needed in 2020's, unless there is a major economic problem which would push the demand down? So from that point of view, we are very worried. And here, the energy security is not only a problem for the IEA countries, our own countries. Because today, a bit more than 50% of the Middle East oil goes to Asia. And tomorrow, it will be more than 90% of the Middle East oil will go to Asia. So therefore, there is a very strong common denominator between the Western countries and the Asian consumers, namely stability and the investment in the Middle East countries to increase the production growth when we need it badly around 2020's. Now, how does the current oil markets fit into this picture? First of all, why do we have the lower price? We think there may be many reasons, but two of them are key, lots of supply coming from US, very successful growth of US oil production, and at the same time, weak demand. Mainly, European economy is weak, China is slowing down, Japan is in a recession. But the question is, will it be down now, prices for very, very long time? Our answer is, we don't think that it will be like this for a very, very long time, but there will be a downward pressure on the prices in the next couple of years. And this downward pressure may well mean that many companies may give a second look at their spending plans with the lower price levels. And especially, the countries or the deposits fields which require certain level of prices can be more affected than the others. We may well see in North America current price levels, and especially if there is a downward pressure further on, may push the companies to look at the capital expenditures next year. There are already some signs from some major companies to cut the spending plan 2015, and this may well continue. In Brazil, a big part of the investments are carried out as a result of the cash flows coming to the Petrobras. And if they go down as a result of lower prices, this may well have an effect on their investment plans. So the very first effect of the lower prices is putting a downward pressure on the investment plans. And second, if the prices stay at these levels, $80 today, while it gives a breathing space for the consumers, a comfort zone, this is very good, but when the prices go down, we may see an upward pressure on the demand growth if the economy is in a normal trajectory. So going from 110s to 80s may well give upward pressure on the demand side. So putting these two things together, lower prices, putting a downward pressure on the investments and the production growth, especially in the high cost areas. Second, putting a upward pressure on the demand growth may well mean that we will need in a lower price environment perhaps more reliance on the Middle East oil, which once again makes our security concerns even much stronger coupled with the investment challenges we are facing today. Now a couple of words on natural gas. We see that the natural gas is growing strongly almost everywhere in the world. And sometime soon, we'll overtake oil as the number one fuel in the global energy mix in the case of time or so. Now, I said everywhere, but there is one exception. It doesn't grow, which is Europe. In Europe, natural gas is in a winter sleep. We think natural gas consumption in Europe will go back to 2010 levels only around 2030s. So therefore, there is a big gap there. So and for Europe, while the European demand will stay more or less stable, European import needs will increase significantly as a result of the huge declines in the domestic gas production. And the question is, while Europe is now today, is very that they are getting a big chunk of their gas from one single source, with the growing import needs what to do. And one of the options here in the medium and longer term is LNG. We see that the LNG trade is increasing substantially. Today, 50% of the gas state is made by pipelines, 50% by LNG. And we think this will grow significantly in favor of LNG. Mainly, as a result of many LNG projects are coming to a completion sometimes soon. And not only the amount of LNG is increasing, providing flexibility to the markets from 300 to almost 600 BCM, but perhaps more importantly, the countries which produce LNG are increasing. So double flexibility. Lots of LNG providing flexibility, plus the number of countries are growing. To the current ones, we expect the US, Canada, African countries, Mozambique, Tanzania, and big projects from Australia, lots of LNG coming to the markets. This will make the hands of the consumers stronger in terms of the options they have in front of them if they use their carts cleverly. However, we do not believe that so much LNG coming to the markets will bring the gas process down to the, as many people hope, to the US gas price levels. That will be still a major price gap between US and the rest of Europe or Japan for two reasons. One, the capital costs of LNG, we have colleagues from LNG companies here, are going up. And second, shipping gas from point A to point B is a costly business. So to bring the US gas to Europe costs about $657, just to bring it here, plus the price about $4 is already $11. So this is, growing LNG is a very important trend, a good news for the consumers from a flexibility point of view, but the hope that the gas prices will go down is not a view that we subscribe. Now, a few things on coal markets. We see that the coal demand is slowing down with all its implications. Now, we have seen the coal demand peaking in the Europe in the mid-1980s, then the US mid-2005. And now, the most important thing is we see a Chinese coal demand per doing. This is extremely important. Even if you don't have anything to do with coal in your life, it is important for you, because you have to do something with gas. And this will affect coal gas price competition worldwide. This will affect the COT emission trends. This will affect the investment in renewable trends. And this is what we are projecting, and I can tell you, leave aside our projections. Until the last two years, Chinese coal demand increased 10% per year on average, like an automatic pilot. In the last two years, the growth rate in 2013 was about 5% per year. So you may say 10%, 5%, what is the difference? The difference is, given the size of China, 10% versus 5%, in one year, is equal to all the ASEAN Asian countries coal consumption put together. So all put the ASEAN countries there, Thailand, Philippine, Indonesia, all of them is equal to that 5%. So this is very, very important trend. And this is mainly driven by local pollution concerns. But we expect India to move up in terms of coal consumption very strongly, and soon overtake US as the second largest coal consumer, second after China. And as I said, we see a coal slowing down, and we have already the first signals of that. If the coal industry would like to see the trend going up, still the buttons to be pushed are on the technology front. How to use coal through CCS, through other technologies in an environmentally friendly way. But this will have implications for the market equilibrium in many aspects. Now coming back to power sector, we again wanted to challenge one issue. Many colleagues think, many government think that the demand growth in the OECD countries are more or less flat, electricity demand growth. So electricity sector is not such an important sector anymore because our demand slows down. This is again an idea we don't agree with. Because in the OECD countries today, the need for building new power plants are not coming from the fact that the demand is growing, but mainly the existing capacity is retiring, and we have to replace them. Today, worldwide, we have about 6,000 gigawatts of power plants, the entire world. And within the next two decades, we see 40% of the existing capacity will leave us. They will retire. Power plants are like the human beings. They produce power, come to a certain age, and then retire. This is the unfortunate destiny. So this is what happens. And then they are thrown out, the power plants. So here, what happens is that in the OECD countries, even though the demand growth is almost zero, we have to build a lot of power plants to replace especially the terminal capacity. And what is the terminal capacity, what is the new capacity coming from in the future? This will be mainly renewable energies as a result of government support. And this is subsidies. About half of the growth of the new capacity worldwide will be renewables. But when I say renewables, mainly hydropower followed by wind and solar. And we see also a significant amount of natural gas. So we see more and more an approach in many countries between renewables and natural gas. So the point is, this retirement issue, especially in OECD countries, while it poses an important challenge in terms of finding the money, et cetera, it at the same time gives you an opportunity if you want to give a new shape to your power system. Going from coal to gas, or from coal to gas to renewables, from central gas to the central gas, whatever you want. You have now a chance to mix the cards again in the OECD countries. And another challenge, especially for Europe, this is a major problem, and perhaps in the US as well. The penetration of renewables are so strong that you do not have enough reliable power to support the renewable energies. In Europe, in the next 10 years, we need to build 100 gigawatts of uninterruptible power, which can be large hydro, gas, or whatever, and the appetite for investment is close to zero now. And this is a major issue from a security of supply point of view. So therefore, to find the balance between the renewable policies and the system reliability remains a challenge for Europe and perhaps in other countries as well. Now renewables, as I said, they are growing very strongly. And the good news is a big chunk of the renewables are coming from wind and solar in addition to hydropower. And the amount of subsidies we are paying them will soon come down as a result of cost reductions. So this is definitely a very, very good development that the cost of renewables in some cases are coming down onshore wind and some solar technologies, which is good from the economics point of view. But from a system reliable to the point of view, we still need a reliable supply there. As Sarah mentioned, every year we look at all the fuels in general, but one fuel in particular, in depth. It can be one year oil, one year efficiency, one year coal. And this year we look at the nuclear power. We see that many countries in the world are still interested in building nuclear power plants after Fukushima. We expect there be a strong growth. And this growth will come mainly from nano-ECD countries, mainly, but not exclusively. And they are driven by three factors. Renewables, many countries believe it is good for energy security. Second, it is a reliable base load generation of electricity. And third, a very important tool to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. So as a result of these drivers, energy security, economics, and the climate change, we expect the renewables will grow. But with the current policies, we do not see a nuclear renaissance in sight. In Europe, we are seeing a big decline of nuclear capacity, mainly as a result of retirements, because of their age come to a certain level, because we built most of the nuclear power plants in Europe 60, 50, 60 years ago. And as a result of some governments, such as Germany, Belgium, and others, want to phase out the nuclear plants in a premature way. And of course, with all respect to all the governments to choose this way or that way, I personally believe it is the government's responsibility if they phase out one technology, they have to make sure that how this gap with which technology it is going to be compensated, filled, and what are the economic energy security and climate change implications of this new plan. I think this is very important. In Japan, we expect slowly but surely we will see nuclear plants come in the command stream after the Fukushima incident. And there will be some new, a few new additions, but we will also see some retirements in Japan as well. But in some, we expect the Japanese nuclear power plants will still play an important role in the Japanese nuclear, Japanese energy future, but will be less pronounced than before Fukushima. Yes, we expect some net increase. There is six gigawatts of plants under construction, especially those areas where prices have a more regulated nature. India and Russia, they are making a significant amount of efforts to build nuclear power plants. Both of them are building today, especially India. Russia has huge plants. We are discounting their plants, taking it through a feasibility filter. But ladies and gentlemen, the biggest growth in terms of nuclear comes from one country only, which is China. About 50% of the new nuclear capacity in the world will come from China. And when you look at the effect today, today we have 80 gigawatts of plants under construction, 80 gigawatts, half of it is being constructed in China. So what are the implications of that? First one, I mean, but I want to say two of them. The first one is China is today developing its own nuclear technology. And by building, constructing a lot of nuclear power plants, bringing the cost down, and we may well see China soon to be a serious competitor to Western countries in terms of exporting the nuclear technology. Today, the main nuclear technology countries, North America, Europe, Japan, Korea, we may well see China with the new generation and lower cost may well be a serious competitor there with all its implications. Second, today in the world, 80% of the nuclear plants are in OECD countries, 20% in non-OECD countries. As a result of this picture, in two decades of time, it will be 50% OECD, 50% non-OECD countries of the nuclear power plants worldwide. And of course, this will have lots of implications in terms of climate change, in terms of energy security, and all other issues. For nuclear today, we see two major challenges. One is the finance, the process. The other one is the public concerns. And in terms of public concerns, we think governments who really seriously want to address the nuclear plan must listen to the concerns of the people and try to address them. There are two of them we want to highlight. The first one is that we expect in the next two decades or so, we will see as a result of natural and policy related retirements, we will see 200 nuclear power plants are going to retire. And up to now, we have about the experience worldwide with the retirements about 10 nuclear power plants, more or less, decommissioning. So how are we going to deal with these 200 nuclear power plants retiring? How are we going to decommission them? What to do with them? We don't have experience. And in most of the countries, we are not well-prepared how to deal with them. And this is not only for the countries who want to pursue nuclear policy, but also the ones who want to say goodbye to their nuclear policy. What are we going to do with these 200 nuclear power plants, a serious challenge in front of us? The second one is about the waste. Today, as a result of generation of nuclear power in the last few decades, we have about 350,000 tons of nuclear waste. And this will be doubled based on the projections I showed to you coming from different countries. And today, when we look at the world, the attempts to store, dispose the nuclear waste is very, very limited. There are many temporary solutions. But to have a permanent solution, the international efforts are not at their maximum what they have to be. And therefore, our call is that there is a need for concerted international efforts to find a solution to the high-level waste, once again, within the international collaboration framework. And we have enjoyed very much the proposal, the suggestions we got from Mr. Hamre in that context. So before finishing an important issue, a critical issue which is the climate change, now energy sector, as we all know, is the main responsible sector when it comes to climate change. Why? More than two-thirds of the emissions causing climate change come from the energy sector. So we wanted to look where we are today in terms of climate change. Because the scientists told us that in order to keep the world more or less like today, temperature increase should be maximum two degrees Celsius, which is, I think, if I'm not wrong, nine degrees Fahrenheit, if I'm not wrong. So how we want to see where are we today with that perspective?   This is our threshold. And this agreed these two degrees target by the world leaders a few years ago. And when we look at the where we are, as of today, we human beings already consumed half of the budget given to us. So the allowance of dirtying the world, half of it, is already used through the Industrial Revolution, most of it, by using a lot of coal, oil, and gas, putting a lot of carbon in the atmosphere. And if we continue with our current policies, with the projections I showed to you, which takes into account the new policies put in place, we see that around 2040, we are completely exhausting the budget given to us. So then, because the emissions in 2040, about 80% of the emissions in 2040 is already determined today, the investment we are making today. So we are looking in that future. So it means if we don't have a major change in the energy investment trends, we may well say goodbye to the world we used to have since several centuries. And in that context, to give a signal to the energy investments, clean energy investments, and efficiency, I believe we have a historical chance, which is the chance in Paris next year, 2015 Paris meeting. And before that meeting, we have heard very encouraging news. First of all, European Union made a statement, has now a package, reducing the emissions by 40% in 2030. Second, President Obama and President Xi jointly announced a commitment for both countries. And this is extremely important for three reasons. One, numbers. US plus China responsible for 45% of the emissions, plus Europe 15%, altogether 60% of the emissions. There is a political commitment at the highest level. The countries which show the responsible leadership at the international level, 28 European countries, plus United States, plus China. This is in terms of numbers. Second, this I believe, especially China and US being a part of the game, this will inject a very strong political momentum to the Paris process. It will be more and more difficult for the countries who are other significant emitters, who will not be a part of the coalition of finding a solution. It will be very difficult for them to afford not to be part of the countries who want to find a solution. And these countries are, as I said, the 28 European countries, US and China, the political momentum, number two, all these countries. Number three, I believe the key issue here is China. In Europe, and I believe in North America, in Asia, many people who direct their feet to find a solution to climate change said and will say that we can do a lot of things to reduce the US emissions. But if China doesn't move, we cannot find a solution. So why should we punish our economy if China, the largest emitter, doesn't move? And now China moving, making such a commitment, for the first time, putting a target, if you wish we can discuss this target, what it means, is, for me, taking that argument from the hands of the people who direct their feet. To sum up, I am cautiously optimistic about this Paris event, and it may be well our last chance to give the right signal to the clean energy investment so that we can be in line with our two-degrees target, or at least we don't throw the two-degrees target in the trash. Currently, the clean energy investments for efficiency, for renewables, for a nuclear, and so on, are about $400 billion. In our central scenario, which finishes everything around 2040, the budget is closed, they are already increasing twice. But to be able to see, to save the world, if I may say so, to save the planet, we need to increase the clean energy investment four times compared to today. And this will not happen if there is not a serious signal coming to investors that they will be punished or they will be rewarded with their investments coming, depending on the technology they choose. And Paris may well be the kickoff of that very new wave or accelerating the clean energy investment trends. So, ladies and gentlemen, if I can finish up our words, I believe in terms of energy security, there is a growing risk at present in a number of parts of the world that are very important strategically for the energy sector. Iraq, Libya, other Middle East countries, Russia, North Africa, these are very crucial countries, provinces, and as such, the current lower oil prices should not disguise the challenges we have in front of us. And I believe energy security will be a crucial issue in the next years to come. What is happening in Middle East today raises concerns about the investment flow in the region as a result of lack of security, lack of predictability. And if the investments do not come in a timely manner, we may well see the future production work is very, very weak and this may bring challenges for the oil markets. Many countries believe nuclear energy can play an important role in terms of the energy security, improving energy security, addressing climate change, but the public concerns remain a major issue together with financing and this needs to be addressed if the governments take the nuclear expansion plans seriously. We are in the opinion that the success story in Paris may well change the flow of investment for clean energy technologies, renewables, efficiency, nuclear power, switch from coal to gas, but to do that we have to see an agreement, a major political will coming from Paris and as such, the recent China-US deal following the European targets is a very welcome step. And finally, we at the IEA, we believe that the market instruments are the best to address the energy sector challenges for sure, but looking at the complexity of these two major problems we are facing, energy security, oil, gas, economics, foreign policy, defense, all of these things, plus the climate change. So many things are involved. There is a need that these market policies are put in a framework by far-sighted government policies to steer us in a right direction. Thank you and thank you very much for your attention. Thank you. Fadi, thank you very much for that wonderful and comprehensive look at, well, actually, it's probably not comprehensive. There's probably a lot more in the way than what you highlighted there, but certainly a lot of issues to talk about. We have about 20 minutes for conversation. I'm going to open up to the audience in just a moment, but I thought maybe I'd start with a couple questions that I had. One is you were pretty pessimistic about the prospect for increased investment in the Middle East, given what you term as turmoil. But you were also pretty positive about investment in Brazil, which to some outside perspective could look tumultuous as well. How much of your view on both of those countries is predicated on a security environment versus the sort of investment commercial framework governance architecture that both put on the table? Because I could argue that for both of those regions, those are really the crux of the issues that dissuade investment. Thank you. For Middle East, the main reason why we are, I wouldn't say pessimistic, but we are questioning the growth from Middle East around 2020 is lack of investment, not because of the economics, but because of the security issue here. The current lack of security and the unpredictable of the Middle East may well mean that some key investments are not carried out, especially in Iraq, where we expect half of the growth come from. And when we talk with the Iraqi colleagues today, we see that the appetite for investment is almost close to zero. This is the reason why we are concerned. For Brazil, this is a different story. This is a story of the ability of Petrobras to be able to raise the necessary funds. And as we highlighted in our report and also try to do now, if the prices go to $80 and below, we may see that Brazil may be one of the regions which will have the toughest challenges because the investments are basically financed through cash flows. And if they go down, they need to go and increase their debts, which would be a major issue for Petrobras. Of course, there is an important question mark about the production growth coming from Brazil as well. Maybe turning the page a little bit on sort of the issue of subsidies, an issue that I would give you all and the IA in general tremendous credit for actually framing a lot of the debate and actually quantifying a lot of how we talk about energy subsidies on both the fossil-based and renewable energy side of the equation. You mentioned that there was progress being made on sort of the subsidies issue. How can you characterize a little bit the sort of nature of that progress? Because I think one of the ways you talked about it was sending a signal about sort of using energy inefficiently or using sort of one kind of energy versus another. For a lot of the countries where these subsidies exist, one of the real political challenges of getting them removed is they see them as sort of an access issue or an equitability issue. Are we becoming smarter about how we implement sanctions? And are you guys seeing evidence of that in your research? I think the subsidies, exactly. Subsidies are being questioned by many governments, mainly because of the pressure on the budget. Because governments are feeling this big pressure on their budget and it is becoming, even for the oil producing countries, becoming a major, major problem. In Indonesia, the main reason that they move ahead is because of the government budget cannot afford anymore and there was a new government, a freshly elected government has the strong confidence of the waters and they took a very good step in the right direction, very much in line with our suggestions. In Middle East, many governments are taking steps, especially in power generation. Today in Middle East, we use two million bottles per day of oil to generate electricity. From an economic point of view, this is not economic, I should say, I didn't want to say something. It is something like that. You, to run your car, you use Chanel, Sank Parfum, so this is to run your car. This is, it has no economic value at all. So, but the governments are seeing it and they are moving to gas, especially, and others. Again in Middle East, I say Middle East because half of those subsidies are in Middle East countries. It is, for me, it is unbelievable that on one hand, governments want to improve the renewable energies, they have a market share. On the other hand, they are putting substantial subsidies for fossil fuels. This is, I mean, this is unbelievable because you pushed renewables in order to have a better chance to compete in terms of prices to give them new subsidies, but you give more subsidies to fossil fuels and you have no chance. This is definitely not the right way. And as you said, we work on Africa this year and one of the reasons why people say we have subsidies for energy is to protect the poor. And our numbers show that out of this money, 550 billion, only 80% of the subsidies go to 20% lowest income groups and more than 90% of the subsidies go to medium and high income groups. So it doesn't, at the end, have to pull, it has more than medium and high income levels. So therefore, we have some suggestions with the, in the context with the G20, how to realize these subsidy reforms and we'll be working also this year with the Turkish G20 presidency to move the subsidy program further. Okay, one final question for me and then we'll open it up to the audience. And I, you know, I can't get away with not asking sort of a climate change question. And one of the interesting things, you know, for those of us who've read your report for the, you know, years upon years and look at sort of the climate messages that you've brought, I think one year it was sort of the door is almost closed and then sort of the next year it was, well, just avoid the lock-in.  Is that how you really characterizing Paris and putting your long-term forecasting hat on? What happens if, what needs to happen in Paris to feel confident that we're on that path and if we're not, what comes next? I mean, you think is if, we have to understand one thing in the energy sector, it is very different than the others. The tomorrow's, in 20, 30 years of oil, gas, coal, CO2 trends are determined by today's investments. So it doesn't, in the, there's a long lead time. The decision and the impact, there's a big time lag here. So the 20, 40 trends, 20, 40 CO2 emissions are determined today's investments. So if we are not able to get the, our acts together and give a new impetus to clean energy investments, unless, as I said, unless there is a major economic downturn, we will, we have to say goodbye to the two degrees world. This is what we are seeing and to be very frank, we then, if we are not able to get the Paris Agreement, which is the one which could give a signal to all the countries, investors and others that a climate change is a major issue when you make your business plans. If it doesn't go through, it can be through international agreement, through a ceiling, through some type of allocation of responsibilities, then we better try to find out what are the ways to get used to in a different planet. Okay, we're gonna take some questions now. We've only got about 10, 15 minutes left. So I'm gonna group them in threes. Please wait for the mic, identify yourself and put your question in the form of a question. Please, we'll start right here. Brian Beery, Washington correspondent for EuroPolitics. Just a Europe question about the price differential you mentioned and the competitiveness issue. Is there a possibility that if Europe increased its own shale gas production, that some of that competitiveness issue would be addressed? Hi, Chen Weihua, China Daily. However, do you have any China-specific recommendation or comments on its sort of a nuclear energy plan? Actually, specifically, I mean, the government announced last week to triple the nuclear power generation capacity by 2020 and more will be in the construction. Thank you. Thank you. Fata, thanks so much for your comments. In the short term, this week is the OPEC meeting and you are unique in that you have worked for both OPEC and now at the IEA. How much do you think that the U.S. shale boom is going to end up complicating, if at all, that OPEC decision, both just this meeting, but also over the next year to two years? Okay, and one final question. I have Will Cole, Johns Hopkins question on nuclear power. Some industry people would contend that the prospect of SMR, small modular reactors, could give a very positive stimulus to the industry because they would be cheaper, shorter construction times, safety, et cetera. Yet, none of these have been licensed so far. I'm just curious, how did you treat that issue in your analysis going forward? In Europe, we have today a significant amount of shale gas deposits in Poland, Germany, France, UK, if you consider Ukraine, but we cannot expect that in the next 10 years, it will bring a major contribution to European gas supply. Having said that, if we start to work very hard and if we get rid of the dogmatic barriers we have in front of us, not to make use of shale gas, it may well help us at least to compensate the decline in the European commercial gas production and as such could be an important factor in improving the competitiveness of Europe. This will not be enough to close the gap between Europe and United States, but it can definitely help in terms of narrowing that gap and also good for the gas security of Europe. Now, nuclear energy in China, this is definitely one of the most important push that China has in its energy history. When I look at our numbers, China is making a lot of efforts on efficiency and renewables, but when I look at the nuclear numbers, they are very, very impressive, which means half of the growth in the global nuclear capacity will come only from China. This reminds me, at that scale, China between mid-1980s and mid-1990s in 10 years of time brought electricity to half a billion people. There was 500 million people didn't have access to electricity, but there was a big collective action and China brought electricity to those people as a result of government decision. This at the same level, it will be very important for reducing the share of coal in the Chinese power gen mix. It will be very good for reducing the CO2 emissions and it will bring China as important nuclear power and in terms of nuclear capacity, China will overtake United States as the number one nuclear power in the world. So as such, I think the Chinese emergence as a major nuclear power producer will redefine the nuclear landscape if the other countries do not change their policies. The third question, yes, what do we expect from the next OPEC meeting? It's a question that I will not be able to comment, but I can tell you the following. Shale oil from United States, oil sands from Canada. These are extremely important developments in the hydrocarbon sector in revolutionary nature and this provide a lot of comfort. This provide the energy security zone for many people. As such, they are very, very important. However, I would highlight that we will, we shouldn't forget that even these two success stories, we will still need Middle East oil in the future. I think we should therefore view the current investment issues, current security issues in Middle East from that angle. We shouldn't be blind with the big numbers we are seeing today. There is also a tomorrow and this is very important to put things therefore I believe in a perspective. The SMRs are important especially given the growing appetite of many emerging countries who cannot finance standard big nuclear power plants, but we need to see their feasibility and transferability from one country to another. But as we have highlighted in our report, they may well play important role in the emerging countries where the finance is limited, but the electricity demand is growing and they have limited natural resources. Okay, let's take a couple more questions. We've got one time for one more quick round. So we've got one back there. We'll do one over here. Yeah, Nina Gardner, Strategy International. Hi, Fatih. Just reacting to something you just said, how do you square the whole tar sands issue with the two degree centigrade target? I don't see how you can square that whole. Just because I think your mic wasn't on, it was a question about gas price decline in Asia, okay? And then we have one more right here. Now can we go back? Jeff Bomi, a private investor. How certain are you or confident are you that CO2 is the most important, it's the most important, but how confident are you the other gaseous pollutants are contributing to global warming? Thank you. So oil sands or as you describe tar sands, they do emit more emissions than a convention oil. This is true, but if you put them, if you put it in a context, how much additional CO2 comes from oil sands vis-a-vis convention oil, the difference is really, really very limited. I will tell you the numbers. In our report, we expect that the oil sands will increase about three million barrels per day, okay? If we assume this three million barrels per day wouldn't come from oil sands, but would come from average convention oil somewhere else, the three million barrels per day. In oil sands, it stays as it is. The difference of additional CO2 oil sands versus convention is equal to the not even one day of emissions of China in an entire year, very 23 hours, very small additional CO2 emissions growth. Yes, there is an increase there, but it is very, very small if you put it in a context. And if you want to see oil sands to play a role from energy security or for something else, then we have to find a way to compensate this 23 hours of China's daily CO2 emissions growth. It can be carbon capture storage, it can be efficiency, it can be renewables through other technologies. Gas price in Asia, I didn't say that it will not be a downward pressure on the prices, but what I said is that we shouldn't expect that it will be the US prices everywhere. There will be at least a downward pressure if it comes there, but we shouldn't also forget that the cost of capital of building LNG facilities are going up. And therefore, perhaps we will not see today's $16, $17, but we will see a downward pressure, but it will be very much far from what we have in the United States today. But the US gas will definitely help to provide some flexibility in the markets in Asia. It would also bring a downward pressure on the prices. There are other gases than CO2, methane is another gas and there are many other gases, but CO2, when we talk about the energy sector, CO2 is one of the most potent gas together with methane and that is the reason since about more than two-thirds of the emissions of CO2 comes from the energy sector. It is the very reason we look at CO2, but other gas that are on methane and for methane, there are many initiatives, one of them belongs to us, have to reduce them and it is really compared to CO2, easier to fix to balance it through some technical and regulatory measures. Okay, well, I think we've come to the end of our time. I just wanted to thank Fatih for being here. I know you've got to go to New York and continue the WIO tour. But given your description of retirement in the power generation sector, we know there's no risk of you retiring anytime soon, so we'll hope to see you again here sometime in the very near future. I want to thank you and your team for just the excellent work that you bring to the broader energy discussion. On our side, I want to thank Annie Hudson on our team for putting together today's event and please join me in thanking Fatih. Thank you. Thank you.


Yeah we on boss talk one on one, one on one.  We be on fire, we be live lit, lit. It's a unique hustle. Check it, check it, check it. It's a unique hustle. This is your boy, you CEO. And I'm here with the lovely, amazing official. Miss Jamaica, what's going on? Wait.  Hey man, say man, we down here in New Orleans, man. Make sure you guys like and subscribe to our channel, man. Man, we down here with Kings. We down here in New Orleans where culture is thick. There it is. Y'all don't understand, man, what's going on right now, man. We just blessed to be here. This is our second time down here in New Orleans. God made, God did this. Got us here, man. Indeed. We in the building with Konto. Man, what's going on, Konto. Y'all doing, y'all doing nice to meet y'all, man. Right how y'all doing? There we go, now we cooking, man. We here with Konto, man. You know what I'm saying? Man, that name, man, even that name. Oh yeah. Man, I know you got a lot of black from that name. Well, hold on, is that where your mama named you from? Indeed. I gotta make sure. 1977, the year the movie came out, that's the year she decided to switch my name from her pop's name to Konto. Oh, so she had named you your pops first? No, that was the intentions, but I was born in February of 77. The same month the movie came out, that's when she made her decision. She switched over. And you were getting teased, like he was asking, have you ever got teased? Yes, indeed. A lot, a lot. Did you ever go to your mama and say, mama, why did you name me? I sit down in front of the TV every year. Every black history month, that never happened. She made you watch the movie. And she made me watch it, she would never explain it to me, she would just sit me there and let me watch it. You know what I mean? I never explained it. Never explained it to me. What did you get from it? It paid off in the long run. In the beginning, the same question you asked, why did you name me? You know, something of that nature, yeah. Right. I really didn't understand the film at the time. And when did you get it? Maybe all my first juvenile jokes. How old were you? Well, my first juvenile jokes, probably 13, 13. And how did you get it? What happened, why you got it? A restful possession of a stolen car or pistol. And then why did you get the fact that, okay, this is why? Okay, I had a chance to actually read the book and I actually seen the trail of the book instead of the movie. Is the book better? Yes, it's better. I mean, I don't necessarily know if everything in the book is actually facts, but yeah, it's better. It's deeper. You know what I mean? You get the contents of the religious parts of it. Okay. The culture part. The culture part. Yes, yes, so that kind of affected me even more. I appreciate it for it. Indeed, rest in peace to my mom. Rest in peace. All right. Rest in peace. Yes, you did. So you were raised by your mom and your daddy? Well, I was raised by my mom's full-wild. Then my grandmother took over. Why, what happened to your mom? Why? Well, my mom's, she was awesome. She was in the streets. I mean, pretty good woman, but she still has a new hand up. She had to do what she got to do? Indeed, indeed. How old were you when your grandmother took over? At least nine, 19 years old. Only child? Mm-hmm, only child. Okay, so you spoiled. Especially when grandma raised you. You know how grandmother's been doing? Yes, indeed. My mother was her youngest daughter out of five.  Well, the biggest thing that I live off now is take nothing for granted, period.  I was raised in a pretty fair situation until certain things started happening. My family and my mom's hustling. So that kind of sent me through a little tizzy where I was all, I would say, I was off my rocker, you know what I'm going on. You were like, you wanted your mama there all the time and stuff like that? Yes. So you used the moms, yeah. My grandmother, she was awesome, but you know, there was nobody.  Yes, yes, yes, yes. So with that being said, that's where I kind of went running off the path, you know, the path that I was on. Because I was pretty focused as a kid when I was with my moms. But where was your dad doing all of this? In and out of prison, you know? You know, he probably either been in and out of prison or either he was just laying low. We had good communication, you know, but he wasn't with moms, so I wouldn't fully accept him. He couldn't tell you nothing. Like, you're not right here. You can't discipline me, you can't do nothing. Because even when... I respected him highly, though. You respected him highly? Yes, indeed. Because you know how it's so funny, because I know a lot of men who sit at that seat and they love their mom. It's always a mom who always ended up being the person who's taking care of them. Daddy's somewhere around, but it's always the mom who's taking care of them. But there's always a point in time somewhere in their life where the son is too much to handle because, you know, a boy becomes a man and he's like, I can't deal with you. You know, we're arguing, I just can't handle you. They always try to call daddy to deal with the son. But as much as you love mom and you respect mom, y'all still get into it. You know what I mean? And that's the thing, like, me being a mom, I'm like, you only mean the best for your kids. You want your kids to do right. You try to raise them as best as you can, but you can't be there all the time. You can't hold them. I always tell my kids, life's gonna teach you stuff that I can't. Indeed. You know what I mean? Because no matter how much you tell them, tell them, tell them. As a child, I know that there's a lot of things that you did, just like you said, you didn't get till you got older. And what I realized about that as a parent, it's our job to tell you, to constantly tell you, don't worry if you gonna do it, but just tell you instead, because when God is ready, your ears will be open to receive it. You understand what I mean? So when we love somebody, we want you to do it right then and there. Indeed. Because we know that it's good for you, but it's hard to just... Sometimes it doesn't work out that way. No, no. So what did your grandma tell you that helped you? My grandmother, she, like I said, she was a beautiful woman to care me well, you know what I'm saying? She was a backbone of family. She passed as well, but grand was like, she just always was there for me, always took care of me nice, took care of the things I need to handle in my life. Mentally, she was good for my conditioning and my healing, mentally, because I really wanted to be with my mom, but the streets still took over, the streets took over at some point. See, the reason why I love to ask all these questions, because a lot of times when people do crime or do certain things, we, people get mad at a person for doing these things, but don't realize that trauma in their past is what caused them to do certain things and lead them up to where they're at. You know what I mean? Because we had a little snoop mom who came on the show and she was, they had a little program that they went through where, cause her son got killed. And they had a program where they brought all the moms who lost their sons into a room and they faced people, not the murderer of their son or their kids, but people who actually killed people and, you know, reform came out and they talked about their childhood where some of them was either sexually abused or went through different things and that's what caused them to be on this path. So the moms tend to end up having empathy for, you know, although their kids were lost because of, you know, but you really don't know what that person was going through, why they become the person who they are. You know what I mean? So that's why I like to go back into your history to see what you had to go through. Well, in that aspect, I would say, well, I just recently found out before I was released from Angola that I was diagnosed with anxiety issues. But I mean, I really didn't realize that I've been having that sense of kid, you know what I'm saying? I never knew that. That's why when I kind of like go off, I can't calm down, I'm like literally black out and I couldn't calm down, couldn't calm down, couldn't calm down. But I just realized that as you know my way out, you know I'm diagnosed with anxiety attack. That's what that is.  So is that what that is? Well, I never been to the point where I couldn't tell you exactly what took place, but I know I can't calm down. You can't calm down. And that's anxiety. Yes, yes, yes. Wow. And I think that's caused by a lot of black families don't take their kids to, especially doctors. I'm not talking just physical doctors, but when they think about mental, because a lot of parents feel like you're not gonna label my child crazy. Exactly, exactly. Especially in school. You know what I mean? They don't want a label come over their kids, but they're not realizing that if it's a constant thing that's happening, you can get, right, and you can get your child help, whether counseling or medicine or anything like that. Do you have to be in medicine now? Or are you just... No, no. Well, I refuse to take any type of psych meds while I was locked up. You know what I'm saying? I mean, just them putting me on top and me kind of, you know, just channeling my focus when I'm in a situation or certain situations. I know I can't handle, you know, I just shy away from them. I pull myself back from them because I know more I entertain them. You know, I'm gonna take it some more. It's awareness is the first thing. Indeed. It's knowing what you have and then moving on from there. And then, you know, day in the age that we're in now, you can find out anything on social media or on YouTube. So you can always find out calming, situation, how to... So that can be your doctor. Right, there are herbal remedies that you can take. People drink teas to calm themselves down, you know, stuff like that. But so tell me about a time. Do I know you... The first time you got in trouble, how old were you? Well, really, I was the first time I got in trouble. Well, my first juvenile juice, I was 13. 13? Yeah, but I had a couple of years. And what happened at 13? Possession of a stolen vehicle and a pistol. Pistol inside, just basically a jarring ride, you know. Oh, okay. Did you finish high school? No, no, no. I was a time I was released from Scotland at juvenile juice. I was, I mean, it wasn't too long before I was right back in on this adult charge for something that I had no idea. And how old were you when you went in for this adult charge? 17. 17, and tell me what happened. Literally, we was in an altercation in my neighborhood, which is the Iverville Housing Project. We had an altercation in that neighborhood at a DJ with some neighborhood friends, whatever. And during the... While this was taking place, something else was taking place in the Desiree Housing Project, which is like five and a half miles away from our housing project. Okay, I can't necessarily explain to you what took place in the Desiree, what a life was taken. Okay, in that situation, the life that was taken, they give in charge to me and my two co-defendants, while saying that we committed a crime and all. But you weren't there. At all. In fact, we was on the back of a cop car. Thank God we got stopped in the traffic stop. Right. During the proceedings of this murder, if it wasn't for the proceedings of this murder, I mean, us being in a traffic stop during the proceedings of this murder, I probably wouldn't be talking to you all the day. Yeah, because then, if it was... It's a law enforcement officer who was there, so they can't say he's lying to help you. If it was a friend, it'd be like, well, he lying. You know how they be doing? Well, we did have an officer that all actually made the traffic stop. He literally told him that our traffic stop was intentionally a traffic stop. Oh. And it didn't have anything to do with the murder. Okay. Officers in the Fifth District that was saying that we was actually a sentence involved in the crime five and a half miles away. And the time... Okay, so what time did the stop happen and what time did that crime happen? Okay, well, the crime happened at nine, like exactly like 9.22, that was when the first calls came in about the crime shots being fired. Okay, y'all. And then your stop happened at what time? No later than 9.27, 9.30. We was in a traffic stop. Yeah, you couldn't make it that far. Five and a half miles, yeah. In that sort of a time. Okay, our name was being, well, one of my co-defendants name was being broadcast over the radio while we was in the traffic stop. And they were saying that we was fleeing from a scene in a desired housing project headed towards the interstate. So was it somebody that looked like y'all that they saw that they thought it was y'all? No, no, no, no, no. This was... Because I'm like, why did they, where did they get y'all's name from? This was not a mistaken identity. This wasn't... But who told them the name? It was the cops. They just came up with y'all names. The cops literally give the names up to the actual victim who was in the car. And he actually mentioned our names to them, they have documents, just public records. Do you know which police officer told them this name? Lynn Davis. Did he have something against y'all? That's the part that I'm confused about. Yeah, because I'm like, if you had your name on the tip of his tongue like that. Yes, yes, so if it was, it was through something that was happening in the streets. Did you know him personally? Not at all. Did you ever have any running with him before? Not at all, not with him personally. Not that I could recall. I done had a few run-ins with cops, but not that I could recall actually. Or your friend. Did your friend have any run-ins with him? Not that we can recall. Okay. Yes, by him working in the fifth district when we are the first district, we don't too much encounter fifth district cops. So for that situation to go like that, I mean, I don't know how it played out or how the narrative was drawn up. Yeah. But he was adamant. That's just crazy that he just came up with y'all's name, picked y'all name, knew your names to say. Yes. So were there witnesses at that location? This is that the feds had the whole thing tapped. Okay. The whole time. What a shooting it was. Yeah, the whole thing, everything. It was under federal investigation for Operation Shadow Shield, which they was investigating a lot of crooked cops that was working under the branch of Len Davis or whatnot. And they actually had everything on record. They actually knew that we didn't commit the crime. But that has film, footage? No, I don't. I really don't know any footage, but I know they had audio for sure. Okay. I know they had audio or maybe a few things from their cell phones, because this is how they used to communicate. Right. The phones was given to them by the feds and they literally didn't know that they had phones from the feds at the time. So this is how a lot of the information was being tapped. Okay. So this was highly publicized. Soldier Slim mentions it in a song, it mentioned you guys in a song. What time period was this? Well, Soldier Slim, I ran into Soldier Slim probably maybe around 96. He was incarcerated with me in Orleans, Paris. He was incarcerated for discharge in 94. So we actually come through on the charge while we was on the till already. Wow. How was he? Just dealing with him? Oh, Slim straight, bro. You know what I mean? I know a lot of people say this, that, not all.  He's a good dude, bro. Literally, he's a good guy, just, just firm, right? Gonna stand firm on what he believe in, you know? So, and he might have, he was a pretty good people.  Tell me something that he did, that, cause you know, a lot of people say he was good, but I love to hear a story of something that he did, that, you know about. Stuck out. Stuck out. Well, we're stuck out, man. He had a weird encounter before those that was in the Paris dig or Fousford or what had that are. And he come on the till, he didn't want to do any rapping because he's not like rapper-rapper for just to be rapping. But me, being from downtown, I wanted to hear something, you know, that I had to purchase music from him before. You know, I was a conservator.  You know what you mean? You're not rapping. And you're older than he is. Well, yeah, something around the same age. Around the same age, okay. Yeah, so I wasn't feeling that.  You gon' rap. You're rapping this far.   Right. I'm a fan.  Yeah, you know, so he kind of respected the approach.   He got out from that point on, he got out. You really? Yeah, he rocked the till. So he rocked the till. Yeah, that's what he do. Because you guys locked up like this is a freedom. This is a sense of freedom.   You know, don't come in here and be engaged in it. And you know, we all have that promise. Act like we can't, you know, like we can't just be free and hero the same way in the world. Yes, then he was that nigga. He was the artist at the time, you know. So I definitely need to hear that. How was he, cause you know how a lot of time when we listen to somebody on the records, they sound one way, but when you hear them in person, they sound a different way. No, that's slim. That's slim. He sound the same way, both ways. That's slim. Language, when you talk, when you rap, it's all slim.  Don't change.  You know, when he, when he rapped during that time, was this before, then after he came home, that's when he put y'all name in that song. Yeah. Well, he had a little incident. Well, I don't necessarily, necessarily think my name would have made a song or my co-defendants would have made a song due to the fact we from downtown. Slim is an uptown nigga. Magnolia. Yeah, all the way through. All the way through. He's an uptown, respect real niggas, but you know, he's all about his uptown name. So he's not the one to just really be boasting about dudes from downtown. Yeah. Him and a guy in my neighborhood, which I'm real close to is crazy, was one of the 504 boys. They had their little encounter.  Yeah. But at the same time, you know, crazy, not no chump either. He just, he's a brain. Yeah. Not a move, bro. He's smart. He's a brain.  You know, he's not a state of the way.  You know, so he was smart enough not to take that walk. Wow, just a special shout out to my daughter who just sent me her straight A's. And she's 95 to 100. Oh, damn. She's in the 12th grade and she won her $300. I told her anything that she go up over 95 in a subject, she get an extra $100. So she just hit me up. We about to send her that $300. She said, she said, send me that $300 now. Send her that $300. Send her to a place. Ain't less than that with Beyond Civilized. Yeah, send her the three. Like, dang, she said grades her and she was, she couldn't wait on that. Yeah, send her the $300.  She deserve it. Congratulations. That's hard, man. Congratulations, man. Sorry about that. No problem, man. Perfect, man. Kids first, man. Yeah, yeah, man. So going back into the story by Soldier Slim, like when you think about how the city embraced him after all of this, you've seen that coming. They should, yes, yes. He's the one, man. He's the one. I mean, if you needed the culture of the city, there's nobody that could really just wrap the whole culture of the city, the mentality of the city and wrap with Slim at that time. When you think about Slim that day, when you heard about when he got killed in front of his home, where were you, you were locked up, of course, during that time, but what ran across your mind? That was heartbreaking, man. It was heartbreaking, but you can almost see it. You know what I'm saying? The way Slim lived, you know what I'm saying?  He was kind of erratic and during that time, you know what I'm saying? The city really didn't respect rappers like that.  The rest of the rappers, we would just look at him as a rapper. How could you say that the city didn't respect rappers when you had Birdman from down here? I'm just giving you the question. I'm about to give the answer. You had Birdman from down here. You had Moussa P. You had No Limit. You had all these guys down here. How could you say that the city didn't respect them when they had uplifted them? Okay, well, if you notice when Birdman first come out during his, mostly all of his raps, he consistently tell you that I ain't a rapper. They all my gangsta. Yeah. And he did not want the rapper stigma. He don't want a rapper stigma. He won't rap on money, but he don't want a rapper stigma. That's that rapper, you know what I mean? Generations as it's going along. I mean, we embrace it now, but during those times now, rappers was characters. Rappers were characters. Slim was one of the ones that made the exception around that time, yeah. Wow. So when you, because being that you were, you knew that era when Birdman first came out with Cash Money, and I'm gonna ask you about P2, but you was out, you was in the streets, right? Yes, that's what I was. What was something that stick out about that era for you when Birdman came? Because I know you hear the fact that he a gangsta. Y'all down here, y'all live. He actually from, where is he from? He's from uptown. He's from uptown. He is uptown. Just put it that way. You can move across the board uptown. Okay, so when you see him and that whole movement, what does that, how does that hit you? You like proud of him? It's beautiful, yeah, very beautiful, man. Only thing I don't like is not seeing him and P hook up. They never did hook up, did they?  You know, I don't wanna go into details of that with the two neighborhoods. Well, man, that would be so uplifting. That would have been a big ride. That's even right now, even what right now today. If they came together, then guys to see. If Callio came together with uptown, it's what you're saying. You know, if they could see Master P and baby together. And baby together. We're just Callio and uptown, right? Well, that's Callio and Magnolia. Magnolia, yeah. But do you think that there might ever be a time that they can put their differences aside to just do it for the city, to bring the city together? I mean, knowing the mentality of guys from New Orleans, it's a hard rock. That's a hard rock.  So, you know. But it would be a healing, because, you know, even like, I gotta put it, I gotta put it right back to the mode three, yellow BZ from Dallas. You know, we can't say, the fact of the matter is, Master P's still here and baby's still here. They're both still living. You know, so I can't really just always go back and talk about yellow BZ and multi-comote three is gone. But I so wish that they could have put their differences aside and had came together just to do it for the city. You know what I mean? Because it would have stopped a lot of foolishness. Yes, but when you look at Master P and when you look at Birdman, they, K.L. came on the show, K.L.C. He was telling me that he had them and Soldier Slim in his place rapping to body, body, free styling to it. So there was a time when they could be in the same room and embrace each other as before the fame took off. I'm telling you, this is something he spoke of on my show. So that right there tells me that before the, you know, some Sean Cotton said, shout out Seiji Sean Cotton. He said, you never know nobody till they get money. Is that true? Well, I mean, I can't speak for those guys. Not just them, but people in general. Yeah, cause that changes a lot. And I mean, in the world, it's definitely, bro, because it's rough down here, real talk. I mean, there's not money at all on that level. You know what I'm saying? So for them to win like that, to win that big, I mean, you know, you would have to distance yourself.  Scary leader, state, or whatever they came, you know. It's about the smartest thing they could ever did was lead the state. I mean, their state chairs tall, man, for real. If they could put me in prison at 17 years old for a person I've never seen in my life, if you could do that to a kid, three kids.  What, where were you locked up at again? Angle, Orleans, Paris, Hunts. So you was locked up with Mac? Yeah, well, I went through Hunts. Mac was on the other side when I went through Hunts. Okay, so you never did a time. I never ran into him. You never ran into him, but y'all were on the same unit at that time. And because he's another case that I look at down here, I look at the way you guys go through this system and I never hear good things about this system. That's why when I come through here, and I'm coming up out of here, because it's just like you never hear good things about what it is to deal with that system, that judicial system, compared to the stories I hear, just with the young man that was just on here. It's just crazy that you just, is Justice Elver really served down here? No, not that I know of, not that I know of. Not even in my situation with me just coming home. You know what I mean? I mean, I appreciate the fact that the judge and head district attorney, my judge, found it in her heart to overlook everything that the material that I was before and rendered the decisions she came with, but at the same time, man, it just threw me back out here.  The city's the murder capital. Again, like I said, when I went in, it was the murder capital. I'm back out here in the little programs they have to try to help fund individuals. It's better than it was. What actually, bro, there's really no assistance for us, bro, you just tossed me out in this world, bro. You know what I'm saying? I got to fend for myself. I got to fend for myself. I mean, I got to feed myself. You know what I'm saying? Transportation, things of that nature. I mean, I don't see no compensation for it. I don't see where they're gonna find the actual bag, the compensators for it. I mean, they got several guys that came out before me that won legal suits, law suits and things, and they still haven't received any money.  How did you pay? Yeah, I just, man, I don't like hearing the stories, but I love seeing you home. Indeed. You know what I'm saying? You look like me. So I love seeing you home.  Indeed. You was laying by side people that never come home. Indeed, indeed. You know, I watched a lot of them die too.  Well, one of my partners, Wine, Wine had five life sentences. Five life sentences. He had five life sentences. He paid two, two years, two debt penalties and five life sentences.  He hoped that was overturned. Come off that road. He's still sitting with five life sentences. So how was the conversation? How was this temperature when you would talk to him? Real humble?  I mean, but it's for like damn, to everybody that went in Angola due to the laws. I mean, when you get a natural life sentence in Angola, that's what they meant.  I'm talking about guys laying next to you 50 years on the books, 40 years on the books. I'm talking about literally, I ain't going nowhere. I ain't got no chance of going home or nothing. Wow. So that's crazy. Me going in at the age I went in. 17. 17, yes. Yes, it was a harsh. And how old was you when you got out? Ooh, 45. 17 to 45. For a guy I've never seen in my life.  If his mother is watching this, if his sister is watching this once again, I'm sorry for y'all lost. Like I said, I've never seen a kid in my life and the case now proves that. Wow. So for a case like that, when you would come up for parole or when you would come up, say they thought when you were about to get out or if it was any chance of you getting out, were they campaigning against you? There was no parole. Only reason I got lucky and had parole eligibility because I was a juvenile. Due to me being a juvenile, I had parole eligibility came around in like 2018 for me. You know, so all with that being said, I didn't wanna go to parole because I understood my lawyer explained to me that I would have to, you know. Yes, you gonna have to admit guilt, man. That's nowhere in the world. That's nowhere in the world. Not even gone. And I'm knowing I've been down for a while. That's what you were talking about. Yeah, but you know how many people do that? Just because they wanna go home to see their kids? Yes, I don't watch the children. Did you have kids? Man, yes, I had one daughter. Before you went in? Yes, she was three months when I got incarcerated, yes. How did that feel being away from her? That's the worst, that's the worst. Did she come visit? Yeah, I didn't get it. Regular, regular, regular until she went into the service. You know, she went to Houston College, right now she's still out there in Houston. I just come from out of that scene. So, you know, I had my first grandkid. Grandkid. I seen it on your page. Yes, yes, yes, mother died, bruh. So, uh. Wow. Congrats, man. Yeah, I appreciate that.  You know what I mean? But a girl is different though. Girls are different than boys though. Girls are a little bit easier to me.  That's just in us, you know, not saying women, not, you know, but men just like to be out on their own and be responsible, you know, and so, at certain ages, you really gotta lock in on them. You gotta see what they're meant to act, you know what I'm saying? Give them space, but at the same time, you got to be real strict about, you know, kids, man, because, uh. Tell. They take anything for granted, bruh. It could definitely happen to a lot of y'all. Tell me about your relationship with Boss B. Oh, Boss B, man, that's, like I say, I always say this here about this guy, bruh, you know. He's one of the smoothest guys I've ever met. Next to this guy here, you know what I'm saying? But, uh, he's one of the smoothest guys I've ever met, bruh. He's real laid back, he's loyal, bruh.  Boss is not. That's hard to find. Yeah, he's not the chatterbox type.  I mean, straight with the guys he deal with, he's, he's one hundred with it. Well, I gotta ask you about, uh, thanks to Terrence Williams, he out here on the internet, man, and he, hey, hey, everybody see what's going on. Boussy has some real harsh words to say about telling on somebody who, you know, did it. I haven't touched that, I haven't touched that. I'm just trying to understand, you were locked up with this guy. Mm-hmm. Both of them. With Boussy as well? So he's, he said Boussy was in protective custody when he was in Angola. Is that true? Well, I heard that man, the guy was, the guy, the situation got Boussy was in from my understanding. He was in the camp with me at one time. Boussy had money when he come to jail. Simple as that. He had money when he come to jail, I mean, and all the little situation with Angola by our whole population and the way the prison is being ran, it's open, it's wide open. It's not a lockdown prison. So I'm talking about, it's very wide open. It's not like any other prison on the inside. So it's a lot of movement, a lot of movement.  So they held him in the cells for a while. Okay. You know what I'm saying? So he went through everything he had to, to get out of the cells. I know this for a fact. He was literally trying to come in population. He made it out, but they sent him to a camp that wasn't really known for, you know, it was like, you know, close to a trustee camp. It wasn't no population.  And he came out, he come out. Wow. So you, how was the temperature when he was there? People just knew he... Yeah, well, I mean, you know, like I said, but an Angola, it's not to take no credit for them guys. You know what I'm saying? But rappers don't, they don't actually move pieces in Angola like that. You know what I'm saying? Angola, man, you really got to put your work in to be respected in that.  You know what I'm saying? I said, you know, you're pretty good at that. Wow. I just, I look at, you know, when he was locked up and then he went into a, I think he went in for a 18 month stint, I want to say, it's been a while, but then he ended up had kids, they charged him for murder while he was doing his time.  They start building cases. They start building cases on him. You thought he was just going for this period of time and then coming home, but it ended up being somewhat, they tried to shift it. And then he, he winds up on death row. And that's at Angola. And that's where, and you were there during that time. That's crazy. And Terrence was there during that time. No, well, gangster, I was in Paris with gangster. Okay. So he wasn't there. He wasn't even there during that time. Gangster didn't come to Angola. Gangster never been to Angola. So how do you know what kind of time Boosie was in and what type of temperature he was on?  I'm a guy that, you know, I used to deal with him heavy too, you know, so it's easy for him to find out how certain things at that point, you know what I mean? Right now, I don't know if the guys actually, you know, putting them in people's business like that right now, but at that time, you definitely knew a lot of guys inside of prison. But the way that he came home, I mean, cause we just talked about how you would do certain things to jeopardize who you are. Indeed. But he comes home on a step where he had spoke on some people, but they just happened to be dead. How, I mean, is this something that would, is this something you would have done? No, no, no, no, I actually had a situation like that with this case, with my case. You know, not to take any, throw any jabs at him, you know what I'm saying? But at the same time, that's not something I would have done. You know what I'm saying? It's not the way it go, man. They got other people, families who got to put up with that hurt, that shame that you're throwing in family, you know what I'm saying? Now, if certain guys in the game, but he puts so much work in the game, you know, when he over, I'm talking about they maxed out in the game. But you know what I mean? Some guys catch that flag, bro, because you know, people look at him as a scumbags, even though there's somebody, kids or whatnot. Motherfuckers will throw charges on him. You know, they dead, some of them throw it on him, they won't look any different from all the other charges he had. So, that was his case. Yeah, and I get it, cause I just say, you know, would you be locked up with him and seen it just a close, it hits home, you know what I mean? Where, where you definitely was seeing things happen and you seen, he was released before you. Okay, yes he was. He was. And you remember when he came home? Yes, yes. Was it the thing where people were talking about the way he came home? Yes, yes, yes. Is that something, because could he have not just said nothing about it and it would have been cool or they were gonna find out? Man, well, either way it go, man. I mean, gangsta know, he know the streets, period. He know the streets through and through. His decision was his decision.   You know what I'm saying? I mean, he said he made his transition that he's not in the street any longer. I would hope that's the fact.  Nobody said about him. Wow. Yo, he been like that since he was a kid. We did Juvenile, Joseph together in Scotland and everything, so I've been on him. You know what I'm saying?  He loved the entertainment. Mm-hmm.  He loved it. He loved it.   You know that, you know. But to hold it down and just stay true to who you are, I think it says a lot about your character. Yes, yes. That's real. That's what I'm hunting. That's all I could say. That meant something to me. Yeah, it means something to the streets, excuse me, but you know, yeah, it meant something to me, you know, when it's about me, bro, you know I'm being conscious, very conscious of the things I do, bro, you know what I'm saying? Wow, did you know Sterling? Well, I knew him, but not personally. Okay. I go from seeing him. Wow, you know. Y'all know if they, I know if they hold their crew, I was on the streets when they was moving around, you know, so I knew all of them, you know. Yeah. Stone, I was locked up with him, Scotland, all of us were locked up together. I was here by Massapete, brother. I never heard stories. So Kevin Miller back when he was, you know, when they were young, I never heard, I guess it was before they time. They had to be very young, because when I heard him rap about him, even when we were, when I was listening to Pete early on, because Pete really for me, the first one that came, you know what I mean, out from these parts, but he was in LA, he was in California.  And that hustle is undeniable, you know what I mean? And he changed a lot of people's lives. And I think about it because a lot of people talk about the Birdmans and the Massapetes. And I have to say, all the people that were connected to them had great runs and great lives, bro. No matter how you look at them. Yeah, no matter. You cut the slack. Yeah. They ain't didn't they? They ain't, they ain't. They come from the D. I love it. And Kevin Miller was with the Tuesday crew. Okay, I didn't know that. But at the end of the day, I just, I always think about how the music moved down there. I always love Louisiana, bro.  I say it all the time, people from Louisiana. Anything to do with Louisiana, I just, I love it. You know what I'm saying? Cause I was born five miles from Louisiana. I could have been almost over here. I grew up coming over that state line though. All the time. Jay Merck, yeah, I'm supporting that guy. Okay. Yeah, I'm supporting Shawty, Shawty Fresh. I was a pin with me. You know what I'm saying? He was in a pin with me. That's one of your boys, bro, you know, kind of took a liking to him. He was like, bro, you know what I'm saying? So I definitely want to see him win, bro. You know, he been working on his craft. He deserve, you know, he deserve his run. He gon' get it. He gon' get it. Oh, he gon' get it. Man. He gon' get it. When I sat in on him, you know, the manager friend is doing what he gotta do. They work it. He gotta represent the people in the box. Wow, man. How can people get a hold to you? Or how can people link with you? You know, people just want to even donate, even rock with you. You probably have a cash out. Yes. You probably have that cash out, everything comes. We need to start moving on helping our people, man. Indeed, man. Well, I'm gonna be honest with you, bro. Right now, I'm really about to take down everything I have up. Wow. And I have to relay everything back on them. Yeah. You know what I'm saying? I have a reason being is when I was in a pen, you know, I had a few situations dealing with my charge where I used to have to speak to certain guys subliminal. Wow. You know, over Instagram. So I, you know, I mean dealing with my charges because I knew it was going on. So I had to reach out to certain people to make certain things work, bro. You know what I'm saying?  So with that being said, a lot of things I had to say on there, I had to take down on the page because one of the officers had come to the prison. Well, he was fired from the force. Let Davis call the friend. He was fired from the force. He come to the prison and he was kind of trying to see if he could like maybe put some pressure on me in the prison. You know what I'm saying? But why?  That wasn't gonna happen. You know what I'm saying? They not, you know, he ain't going against me with too many other kinds of niggas. He the but a cop definitely. They wasn't messing with that. So just to let him know that I was still in the midst of doing what I'm doing. You know, I got me go to move or whatever you trying to do.  You know what I'm saying?  So I don't want people to get that. I want you to know. So I'm been to Mr. Pull and all the pages. Anything that we can do to help. Yes, sir. If you need me for anything, any shout outs. We hear from you, that's it. We hear family and I'm gonna follow you in a minute too. And you're gonna follow me and we're gonna be able to link. Indeed. You know what I'm saying? Thank you so much, Cunter. Appreciate you, man. My guy, my new friend. Oh, you better believe it. Now, hey, when I come to town, every time, or if you come to Dallas, if you ever up that way, but if I come down here, I'm getting another interview if you help me. Indeed, indeed.  We gonna keep going. And next, we got our victory tour. Indeed. Yeah, we for to have a little money and they keep playing with us.   Man, real talk, man. Real shit, man. You really got to stay focused.   And I didn't make it out here to see my mom before she passed, bro.  I'm just out here right now, bro. You know, I'm still soaking it all in, but I'm just out here.  So I'm definitely gonna be talking, bro. You know what I'm saying? Thank you so much. Nice to meet y'all. Man, hey, man. Check it, man. It's been another great segment of Boss Talk 101, where the boss is talk. And we out.