This is December 2018 only a few days after Christmas and lots of people probably got some fancy new Internet of thing device that may or may not be secure. So maybe you don't want it on your network But I wanted to talk about that a little bit So there's always a lot of questions of do I or do I put on a network? What should I have on my network or what should go on some type of separate segregated network? so these devices that If they get attacked or if the refrigerator gets compromised it doesn't become an attack vector for your other devices I just want to do this quick video to talk about How you can separate them on a network? Why you should or shouldn't and things you can do to make them still function despite them being on a separate network So I drew a diagram what we've done here is This is essentially Kind of a microcosm of a piece of our network broken out here So you can see how the devices are set up So the orange here is the 192 1683 network where I have the unify switch My computer several other computers phones and things like that. This is more or less the trusted network per se Then we have the 172 network here that has internet only So we can only get out to the internet cannot go out and look at local network And then we have the avahi avahi protocol. I've done a video on this before I get the naming possibly wrong in MD and s because some people have Messes me with concerns when I did that video thing, but doesn't that break the security model? No, and that's what we're gonna kind of talk about real quick here so the reason with IoT devices you may want them on a separate network is if they become compromised they become attack factors and When someone gets in your network and anything that reaches out through the firewall and listens for commands Which is how most IoT devices work when they're listening for commands And if they were insecure or poorly designed and someone finds a way to hijack the commands coming into them And we've seen many devices by lots of random companies come out there get to market But not really have any security auditing done until they were deployed in a market Which is what's created many of these out botnets these devices once hijacks They start looking for other things to hijack now many of them simply go back out to the internet to you know Go back to attacking things or whatever their purpose that they were set forth to do becomes But you don't want that to be you or something local on your network now in theory if your computer's patched It should be safe from said things But you still don't really want them making noise on your network So we put them on a separate network now. I have a couple devices listed here like the Chromecast or the Amazon dot Either one of those are Statistically less likely to be attack vectors because both Google and Amazon have a pretty good security reputation But lots of people get those off-brand Random tablets and things like that or random friends coming over with their phones that maybe they Siloed it something and maybe has a security compromise on it that you don't know about and it's looking for things to start talking to Or as I have a screenshot from our friends over at Silicon Valley the wonderful the refrigerators that for some reason need to be connected to the internet and You know, maybe the company's really good designing refrigerators But maybe not so good at designing security related to those refrigerators and your refrigerator becomes in a Potential attack point and you don't want it wandering around so The reason I mentioned evi protocol is some of these devices require talking to your local devices to get them to function fully and Chromecast specifically is one of them that I believe some of the Apple Airplay stuff does and I think so knows and a handful of other devices They use this protocol referred to as MD and s and by loading up the evi protocol in him maintains the MD and s look up Now first let's talk about how the rule sets work here again Anything on the dot three network here full access to the internet and Has access to these devices and it sometimes causes confusion by allowing the three network to talk to the 172 network That means you requested from your side of the network and specifically 3.9 is the IP address of my computer If I go in and make a request to a device on this side I'm the one to initiate the request and will only send back data based on my request for data But these on this side here cannot initiate a crest or even have awareness of The 192 network so anything on a 172 network if it scans its local network It may find the other things on this IOT network But it doesn't have any ability to reach out to any other private addresses in the 192 space Because we have them block and we'll get into the rules real quick How I have them set up in a second now. This is also where we need the evi DNS because the Chromecast wants to talk to the phone and if the phone is on a separate network It doesn't see it now what MD and s is is a protocol that allows DNS lookups Specific type of DNS lookups you can look up the RFC spec and just Google MD and s and read into the details of it That doesn't break the security model because it's only publishing lists Now this list then gets maintained on both sides of the network the things on this network and do a call Give me the MD and s list of devices that support these protocols The MD and s list has it and the Chromecast will be listed in there and evi running maintains that list So you are still doing from a security model an initiated connection from here to talk to here Where the initiation is starting on the 192 network and then requesting something over on the 172 network In the case of Chromecast you would be opening up Maybe the YouTube app you select the Chromecast app and you say hey YouTube will then speak to that device and tell it go get this YouTube video and display it on that Chromecast So this is where the confusion came in because some people think well if it publishes the IP addresses of these things Doesn't that break the security? Well, no the firewall rules maintain the separation between these devices and with MD and s It's not really talking back to the phone. It it's just giving it the feedback the phone requested via that app So it's not giving even with the initiated connection some type of massive back access to it now If somehow you had a device that was MD and s and an app that controlled it You could potentially have an issue if there was some exploit both in the app the methodology And if it requested something was able to send something back It's a real edge case and if you're that worried about security You wouldn't have any of these devices on your networking You wouldn't be trying to use Chromecast or any of those devices now the other thing that would go on this network Let's say would be things like garage door openers and other random IoT light switches and stuff like that But most of those don't even need any type of MD and s look because they don't look locally for the network The methodology that they connect with is they contact wherever their host server is as a service For example, I've seen a few garage door companies that use an Amazon EC2 cloud instance They contact that so you get them you set them up You go to their portal whatever that portal may be and it talks to that portal in the Amazon cloud Then what your phone does when you load it up the app for that garage door opener It talks to the Amazon portal and because the two devices don't ever have to be on the same network There's nothing you really need to do on here You can have them on a separate network and have these same rules and it doesn't break anything at all This is actually how many many cloud devices work. They don't want to deal with trying to figure out local IP addresses and things like that The ones that do are gonna use probably MD and s So there's never really any port mapping that needs to occur between these Unless you try to get complicated and put a printer over here You'd have to map the ports that a printer between the firewall and the local network to get it on here I'd usually recommend people not do that Because it creates you can be done But you're gonna create a more complicated network for yourself because there's a lot of things that need to go on back and forth with Them because they kind of expect to be on the same network, especially with wireless printers But once again our wireless printers a threat model. Yeah, unfortunately found some security flaws in them I generally recommend commercial printers like directly plugged in because they're gonna be better Take that for what it's worth that is just kind of a risk of having the printers in there If the printer goes out and wants to talk to the cloud some wireless printers are simpler And I don't know every model of them that you can just keep them on your local network And they don't need to call out or you can just plug them in USB and mitigate the potential for some of those issues All right, let's actually dig into the rules of what this looks like Now the first thing I want to show you is the AV H. I Dam by Damon and it's really simple and able to buy Land and IOT for the sake of this discussion That's how we're going to be doing this. Don't worry about the other networks We have several other things for other purposes But I want devices on land to be able to talk to via MD and S devices on IOT Check a few boxes here pretty straightforward no advanced settings in here hit save And that's what bridges that MD and S across those devices. Once again, you're not changing any firewall rules You're not allowing the passing of any traffic It's basically like publishing a DNS list and listening on both sides with the DNS to make a list But no actual traffic is going back and forth related to this It's just a listing service that list DNS entries next Private networks versus public networks. I labeled this called LTS private networks LTS underscore Private underscore networks description our private network list type networks And you find this under aliases in the firewall the nice thing about aliases because I have Three different networks. I don't want anything on the IOT network to be able to come back and talk to it all and They're cleverly named out three dot two and VPN. There's the networks right here So let's talk about the rule now So we've created this little alias now if you only have two networks You could forgo this and only type in the IP address as a destination like this and we're gonna show you both ways to write this rule So here's what the rule looks like one rule that says source Is IOT net so source is the IOT network the 172 network we talked about and From that source network, where are we allowed to go? What's the destination? So if you were to add the rule as Wide open asterisk is basically wide open. It would be able to go anywhere else on the network You have to have at least one rule in here to allow the traffic to route We're saying not wide open. So Any thing in the IP for IPv4 protocol space source IOT network port Asterix any port Destination if you notice a little exclamation point ahead of this and we mouse over it We see our alias. It's saying hey exclamation point not these and I just refer to the rule in my description Allow all except which means allow all networks except this one. I'm gonna go over here now And show you how that works Single-host or alias LTS private networks invert match Simple the invert is really important because if we didn't invert this it would do exactly the opposite We want it wouldn't allow it on the internet It would allow it to my private networks and we definitely don't want it there now if you didn't want to write the alias You could put 192 168 plus zero single-host or alias. I believe There we go. You have to choose network if you want it to be a network destination So three does zero such 24 if I only wanted to block the one network, but like I said, I prefer to do this as an alias So we're gonna say single-host or alias Delete I Just type the first letter LTS here's our description allow all and that's it for the rules hit save and now the IOT devices Can't get back to me, but I can get to them and quick demo to show you how that works All right now that we've seen the rules. I have Debian server sitting at the 172 1669 address last 24 and my computer is 192 168 3.9 as shown here and I'm SSH den and what this is is pftop And we filtered for host one seven two sixteen sixty nine thirty nine So you want to see what this hosts and see and show you how the rules work in action So if I request an ICMP packet from 172 16 69 39 We now see three dot nine Getting data over to here Graphic type is ICMP as you can see right here So no problem now and this is like I said the part I want to make sure people are clear on So if we try to ping 192 and 683 dot nine Nothing dead air the firewall will not allow an established connection from there So this is that little part of confusion that I just wanted to make sure cleared up with people When you're getting into networking they assume if the connections made one way that Automatically means something to be back. So the firewall prevents based on the rules a connection from coming back So I can still ping this but that still doesn't allow it because my computer didn't request data So here's that ICMP rule. It's going to expire. Here's the one up here No data traverses because of the firewall rule, but to the top here If we ping news comm I Can ping out I can get out to the internet and you can follow what happened here We have an ICMP packet We have a UDP packet because it had to do a lookup port 53 to figure out the name of the Address I wanted to ping and now it's sending data So it has access to the internet, but it doesn't have access to the local network So, you know, these are the simple rules that you put it on there It doesn't have to be that complicated that one rule with an invert in there saying don't go to my private network Just go out to the internet and do your IOT thing and hopefully you don't get attacked And hopefully you don't get compromised and away you go now This also expands it so later you decide to do things like rate limit or speed limit that particular Leg of the network you could do that You could put in a rule that says my IOT network can never have much bandwidth because you don't want it to take away That's also a good way to do this. So you don't take away from your main network bandwidth. That's not a concept You can do that's not hard to do when you apply some of the rules But just in general it they're usually not bandwidth hogs and well except for things They Chromecast that by their nature if you're watching Netflix at 4k gonna use some bandwidth But this allows you to have them on a separate network where you can worry about them a little bit less But you can still get to them to make things function like the Chromecast using the avi protocol for your MDNS So hopefully this concept makes sense to you And it's just like I said a real basic overview And if you want to know in-depth more walk through step-by-step my getting started with PF sense video Which I'll throw a link to that will get you started from loading it to creating these network rules step-by-step all the way through I've also got several ones on Unify of how to line up VLANs with PF sense. It's pretty straightforward to do And always hopefully this was helpful or enlightening to get you a little bit better understanding of what the risk might be for having an IoT stuff and Why you might want to just keep it on another network and how simple it is to do that and still maintain functionality Not too big of a deal. Alright, thanks Thanks for watching if you enjoyed this video Go ahead and hit the thumbs up if you want to see more content for my channel Go ahead and hit subscribe and the bell icon and hopefully YouTube will send you a notice If you're interested in contracting launch systems for any type of IT services work or consulting work Go ahead and head over to Lawrence systems comm and fill out our contact and get in touch with us If you would like to help the channel out in other ways You can use our affiliate links below in the description or we have a link directly to our launch systems page We have a list of different affiliate offers And it's very appreciated if you use any of those for signing up any of the services and many of them Offer you discounts if you want to head over to our forums There'll be a link in a description for our forums Wherever they may be because we've been looking at different forum platforms, but they'll always be relevantly linked right there All right Once again, thanks leave some feedback and comments below on this video if you loved it if you hated it I try to reply to everyone the people who hate and the people who love them So thank you very much and see you next time


Today we're at J.C. Farms with John and Sarah Crangle. They are nominees from our Arkansas Young Farmers and Ranchers Excellence in Ag. Guys, thank you so much for having us today. Appreciate it. I wanted to know, since you are nominees, you know, what's the history behind J.C. Farms? How did this get started? Well, it's not anything typical, you know, so I'm an ag teacher here at Bismarck, and so I graduated from here when I came home and got started.  And the gentleman that lived here at the time was the one cutting the hay, so as ag teacher I go to talk to him and he said, you got a place bought yet? I said, no, we're looking. He said, well, I just happen to be selling this one. And so we just kind of went from there and here we go, buying cows and hay equipment. Those first time farmers. First time farmers. Yeah. And how long have you all been doing it now? We bought this place the summer of 2015. We're in a little bit of everything. We are, I guess, farm wise.  And then we've got a few herford-influenced cows that we're running a brimmer bull on. And then we rodeo and work off horseback a lot with our cattle and kind of do it that way. We have a lot of kids through here when they go on vacation or if they don't have a place to keep an animal, we can do different things where they can keep their projects here and we can work with them and help them and teach them on their livestock show projects. So, like I said, first generation just not knowing and a lot of just taking people's advice that we look up to and just, you know, trying to work it out together and figure out who's, you know, there's not really any one thing that you're responsible for this, I'm responsible for that or it's just there's always a list of things done and it's just what do you want to tackle off that list and what do I want to tackle or what do we need to do together. Some days I'm putting hay out, some days he's doing the laundry. We just, it's not anyone's job, it's both of ours. What keeps you day after day coming back and doing this? Just the two girls, they are our biggest focus and the farm is already just making them into good citizens. We're raising the youth of our country so I think this is the best place to do it.


so we have one goal tonight one mission tonight okay today is friday first night on the meet-up and in prior meet-ups what's happened is Bao gets drunk he talks to everyone all night long and he loses his voice he's at the meet-up he can't talk to anyone so i talked to steven today to make sure that Bao doesn't get drunk i talked to joe today to make sure that he has backup in case Bao doesn't get drunk if any of you guys see Bao drinking today that means we failed our mission it's more updates to come after almost a late two hours we're finally on the plane on the way to utah i don't know if we're gonna make it on friday now we said Bao's not allowed to drink i don't even know if i'm gonna be able to get there let's see what happens 10 p.m just landed in utah gonna go pick up the car from the rental car area and then drive another hour and hopefully we get to the hotel by 11 yeah we missed the meet-up what i heard there were so many people i think i kicked out now they're all going to the bar down the corner so i've been texting Bao i've been texting oliver i've been texting everyone no one's responding so i guess that's something good so i guess we'll see what happens when we get to prova at 11 p.m bro valet is a fucking beast bro beast i've never been in tesla i've always wanted to drive a tesla and here we are driving a tesla guys drive the lambo every day but he wants to drive with us what's going on that's it um we're doing you're an actual human no i was so interested in just did you get my passport to pick it up so we were already up to like 24 hours yeah what does it do with the passport ship going on bro so i got it renewed and like never sent it never sent this and then so i was like how do i get it they're like if you drive down to an office we'll print you on right here so i was like fuck you don't drive down how far is the office it's like five to seven hours but look what stress you guys have done to me in four years the format of chat rooms back then was just pumping and dumping right there's their chance to freaking make money for themselves by pumping these songs that promoters pay them things like that so alice and i wanted to actually educate people but education is the hardest thing to do in the world and what the fuck was i actually learning i just wanted free money quick right when we first started this it was almost because we needed it right yeah me and bauer almost in a bar place we were making a bunch of money together making stupid amounts of money together every day in one hour a day and after making so much money we felt a little bit of emptiness we felt you know what is the point why we're doing this and you know there was two days a week that bauer'd show up because he'd be drinking five days it was it's funny but it was a dangerous dangerous road that he was going down and you know i found myself a little bit lost too so mic almost helped save our lives and now by doing it we're helping change other people's lives too so thank you everyone for trusting us so as you guys can see everyone's pretty much a normal person you know like everyone didn't really explain their day jobs but like everyone also has pretty much a day job that they used to supplement their income as well so i always like to say like you know i i love the fact people call me a drunk because you know what if this drunk this idiot can do it you can do it too that's my point you don't need to be fucking when i was young i thought you needed to go to harvard and be golden sacks and trade right that's the opinion that they tell you because they want you to be stupid so that they they take your money and they put in their own pocket and so when i realized that dude i could be fucking drunk assuming fucking money it's just that you have to accept reality like i'm not going to make a million dollars which i did but i'm just saying like but you can't be drunk right but you know he builds up to that point he will stick with your expectations that's the thing when you make a hundred bucks don't look at another guy who made ten thousand dollars to go fuck why this doesn't make sense he took a long time to get there maybe he risked more whatever and so every like i like what tom said everybody's journey is different for why i love this this team we are a bunch of misfits that make it work and it's going to change the world this is my good friend actually i've known this guy for like a decade long before anything like this we we never imagined that we would work together but then you know like i told you right everything happens for reason friends family all come together and you know and so i introduce you to our partner our brokerage partner uh success trader so here's the ceo's success trader um hello everybody thank you for uh coming this is an amazing event so yeah as bau mentioned our relationship goes back to over a decade i've been a broker for over 20 years as long as bau's been trading i've been a broker in one way or another i've been with my current firm regal securities for 11 years when i came to the firm i created my own division targeted specifically to professional traders essentially i came from various brokerage firms where we dealt with institutions family offices uh small to medium sized hedge funds and i wanted to take some of that experience and bring it over to the retail side and you know originally we're dealing with exclusively guys like bau like alex you know just basically the biggest traders in the industry that was the target adjusting to that like basically is what i'm saying and i know you won't adjust the way you trade based on one one trader one missed opportunity right but are you noticing that and are you going to possibly make any changes to you know may you know like if you didn't get the move that you were wanting like for example a bbb why right uh you know maybe not cut all of it you know right before the end uh or right right before the close and then we'll have like are you adjusting are you happening yeah so is that something you've noticed as well i definitely notice it and i think what's been happening is it's just been getting a lot more crowded a lot of people didn't really understand what the first red day was when we first started now after three four years doing it a lot more people are catching on it's becoming a lot more well known and when everyone is doing the same thing almost the inverse happens so what i've noticed is it still works pretty freaking good until zombie times but now they're starting to zombie more whereas in the past they wouldn't have that same zombie move the way to adjust to it is to still respect that zombie move and maybe stop for me personally just stop being greedy looking for that all day fader because it's just not working in this current market environment the trade still works the setup still works it's just instead of being a six-hour setup that works from boom to boom it's now become like a two-hour setup that's the adjustment and for bed bath and beyond that's just a whole shit storm of stuff happening that's a one-off shit that's yeah coinciding and then the cfo selling and the meme stuff yeah when to bet heavy because i think a lot of people have a lot of questions about sizing when to size in and bow actually told me this a while ago is what my biggest mistake was i was sizing into everything i thought the way to make money is you bulldoze into every single day and that's how you make money but as i've evolved and as i've grown is but what is your best setup what is the setup that you make the most money on for me it's the first ready i know that whenever that setup comes along that if i am not wiring into my brokerage and putting in money and bulldozing in i can't take advantage of it you know there's oftentimes i remember when the whole gamestop fiasco was going crazy i had maybe a 50 000 in my account at that point and i knew that a first red day was coming at that day i wired in 300 000 into my broker i've shorted you know 30 000 shares and i made 300 000 when that opportunity is there i'm not afraid to size in i'm not afraid to load the boat but day to day stuff is not when you size in so if you are struggling to find the trades that make you the most amount of money ask yourself what is your best setup if you don't know your best setup just not be sizing number one after you identify that setup if that setup comes along that is your opportunity to be able to size in exponentially and to me i size into the point where i for all snows or two i just fucking go in there i go in there and it leads to those days but i don't go in there on a random tuesday i go into those setups i take those opportunities when it's there and sometimes even making hundreds of thousands of dollars i'm still not enough because i know i could have done better when you see a stock just go down down down and it's going the same fucking rate it don't don't fucking touch it it's not done it's when it slows down so this is a physics thing so you throw the bulb in the air it goes to parabola right at the top the velocity is zero and it changes velocity go downward right and so that's that's how i also if you're a if you're a momentum turner that's how you top take you wait to see it's also the slows down it means this is going to change it's going to turn to turn a car around you have to slow down so that's the secret the bottom ticket and top ticket take a look at the rate of change of the prince as it closes to your line and so that's why i always bottom ticket top thing we're going to do that take a look at the speed at which all these things are ticking when this slows down it means you're running on sellers or buyers right but do you guys wait for wait for the rejection well not the rejection but uh wait for it to go below the friends or they just place your fans who are friends who are right there within that range of the friends and then just hold just in case it goes against you for 10 20 cents or i don't know i don't know so like let's say my lines 13 50 okay no let's say a dollar 50 to make more sense like dollar 50 okay and you know there's a support level around the dollar 50 so we're going and we're like dollar 52 a dollar 51 a dollar 50 and then we break that dollar 50 right where a lot of people just like the the whole and a half dollar markers have said right we go underneath that and we're printing 48 48 47 48 47 i want to get in right there because that should have broken down way more from long traders that's the hard stop right people are getting liquidated like underneath the dollar 50 so i want to keep you know i want to be looking around that level underneath my line a little bit and i see that kind of prints go through when they're going through and they're going through that's where i want to start to get involved in this ticker because it's going to bounce higher because everyone is so afraid they're selling out at the bottom and then we go up and we love to sell higher


The following is a presentation of TFNN, The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Hazel Chapman. Call now. Go free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning everyone. I'm Hazel Chapman on this Tuesday, the 27th of June. And we're looking at the Dow up 61 at $33,078. Attempting to cross the Rubicon right here, $33,871 is the number to cross. Just to say that we're going to at least have a pretty decent balance as the 9-period moving average is still over the 14. Question came in. What do I consider a cell signal? So the definition for me is that a cell signal starts the initial, the technicals that I'm looking at have given enough evidence to say that there's a turnaround and it's the start of possibly a deeper turnaround. So that's either a cell signal and then if it gets upgraded to a cell mode, that's the definition that says that at that particular point the prices dropped enough to say that it has reached the criteria. Just like many people think that a 20% move down is really a correction. It is a serious move down in this particular, and all it does is gives you a title. It doesn't say, oh my God, cell, cell mode, that means just everything is going down. It means that the criteria is being met at this particular point. So the Dow, because it went under the 34,588 Chathamway Roman candle, a red inverted Roman candle, closed gap down and closed down sharply on the 20th, 16th of Friday was the high. The 20th was the next trading day. So that gave another Chathamway red Roman candle and we went halfway into the WIC and we tested and closed just above the low. We went below the low of that day of the 20th and we've been down ever since, except today, trying to make a new. This is the first time we've got actually an A with just a pop above the previous high. That's the first thing. So cell signal, for instance, let me just show you here. If the S&P today, instead of having a decent update, closes under yesterday's low, that says to me that's a cell signal. If, in fact, it closes two sessions, this is part of the criteria I use underneath. It could all happen in one day underneath yesterday's low of 4328. I'd probably say below 4327. I will say that the daily chart, not the weekly chart. I'm going one step at a time. The daily chart has gone from a cell signal and probably I'll say immediately that it's upgraded to a cell mode. But I do like the nine period moving average to close pink underneath the 14 period moving average. I wish to really confirm a cell mode in the case of the Dow. The reason why haven't those criteria were all met except for the nine period moving average under moving under the 14 is that there's residual strength. But I see that we've made for six sessions after the turnaround that Friday the 20th Friday the 16th, we had 12345 lower lows and lower highs. That to me, all of that says it's just a slow grind to the downside. It's not a smash. It's added up. It's cumulative 34,588 to 34,005. What was that yesterday? 34,610, a thousand points. That gives me on the daily chart a cell mode. But the reason that I haven't yet done even confirmed that there is a cell signal. I'm still calling a g-sash the alternate count at 44,48.47. The high of the 16th is because that nine is still very much above the 14 period moving average. But at the end of the day, we could start to see actually I should mention we are short the S&P. As we're looking at this QQQ, this has held so much better, but it did close yesterday under the 14. But look how much work has to be done for the green nine period moving average to move under it. So I'm ignoring all the weekly charts because those weekly charts, even though there's a peak D in the weekly chart of the Dow. I'm just for the moment, I go one step at a time and I haven't got the conviction yet to say that the S&P and the QQQ have given me cell signals. So really close. One is within, I'd say fractions of a cell signal. That's the S&P. So my analysis to go short the S&P a couple of days ago was based on a whole bunch of other factors. And the fact that we had used the UDOW, we have also bought the S, the short three times short Dow. At this particular point, I just want you to separate the two just so that I can think a little bit more clearly. But there's a chance that on this particular move, I will be considering if I see the technicals deteriorating. And by the end of the day, there isn't a rally to kind of save the day with the Dow up. It's now up 53. It's holding very nicely. The S&P did pull back to negative. Now it's up eight. So I'm watching this very closely because it's a process. That's what I like to say. So with that said, the IWM is in fact in a cell mode, closed four times now underneath the 14-period moving average. Look at this. We are within fractions of the 9-period moving average flipping negative in the IWM and the Russell 2000. So let's go to, I want you to go to next gold. You can see once we flip negative right here on the 16th of May, that was continued the next day. So around about 2015 with negative, yeah, we are 1925. So it's 100 points down and it's still showing negative signs. And look at the weekly chart. You finally got an S meaning that the weekly 9-period moving average has crossed underneath the 14-period moving average. But we have to wait till Friday's closed. It's a weekly chart. You can't talk about it in two weeks. You have to wait for the close. Look at silver, SI. Well, it's got a little bit better chart than gold. That's also, I think because it's got a practical usage. I think in electric vehicles in the batteries. So maybe that's the way the reason why it's holding a little bit better. It's up 0.03 at 22.85 underneath the 14-period moving average of 2325. It doesn't look all that great. High grade copper, high grade copper is pulling back from that peak after we discussed this the other day. We had John from Philly Calling and we looked at high grade copper continuous contract. And I said that 9-period moving average is still very strong over the 14, but it got repelled three times out of five sessions at the 200-period exponential moving average. Be careful because it looks to me like it wants to test. And I think I said the low of the 12th of June, which is 3.73. Right now the low of the day today is 3.75. A weekly chart is not looking all that great. What do you want to do next? Oh, I wanted to go to crude oil. Oh, I didn't do the job. Yeah, crude oil. There's your dreaded age pattern. What's the dreaded age pattern? That's this pattern I always talk about. And we're going to see a lot of that in the coming week or so. That's where it comes down sharply and makes a peak A or a B and then turns down and takes out the left side low. Well, it's done that. You did that once, you know, that peak D is doing it again. This is peak A right here. Let me just type that in. I said, you know what we're looking at? There's your peak A. It's actually holding quite well, but definitely looks weak. I'm holding well in the sense that it's taken one, two, three, four, four, four sessions to try to take up the left side low of the 12th of June. That caused the 12th of June, which was 66.319. I want to continue this project. I'll be back in a moment. I want to see if the dreaded age has worked together in the one minute chart. There's your dreaded age. Well, now it's trying to come back. We'll be right back. That was a check. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. 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After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. tfnn.com, educating investors. 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of tfnn.com. tfnn, educating investors. Yeah, so let me just show you something else that I want to talk about here. So a question came in about Google. I'm going to Google, this is not the trading shares, this is Google, Alphabet, C-Shares, Search Engine. 129.53 was the peak D high round about June the 6th or so, or was that June the 7th? And here's your dreaded age, the pattern I was just talking about right now. And it's gone below it and the 9-period moving average yesterday turned negative. It's a peak F and I haven't changed the notation yet because I felt very strongly that that D, with his head and shoulders potential right here taking out the neckline, and not one of my favorite patterns but I just wanted to talk about it, is quite forbidding. It just says, you know what, at least this gap, which is the gap from the high was the 10th of May at 113.51, next day the gap below is 114.93. So my thinking is that we could get into this area. All right, so looking for an enterprise to add, I'd hold off just a little bit zip, I'd wait for a little bit more of a pullback. And one of the reasons is, even in the stocks that have been hammered, for instance, we have a stock that we've taken lots and lots of profits in, kept a core position, wanted to add to it, missed by 9 cents after 20% decline, missed by 9 cents yesterday getting into it. And I say there's a potential 2 to 3 points that could be had on the upside, but there's a good chance that it's going to come back and do some retesting. So if we didn't get it by 10 minutes past 10 this morning, because we missed it by 9 cents yesterday, we've missed it. And I'm not chasing anything right now because the tide is turned, look, here's Google, let me show you another question came in, could I look at Murna? So Murna, I always say Murna, I used to have a Murna in my class in high school, way back, I can't remember her last name, but I do remember her. Moderna, Inc., Biotech, COVID, many other trials going on. The COVID days are gone, August 2021, it goes to 497.49, it's trading at 119.01 right now. I did have a left-side, right-side potential, but it took longer than I had written in. I should have gone to a particular candle, I didn't. I went to that failure high right there, the week of the 21st of January at 198.86, used that as the measurement to the right side, there's nothing absolutely clear here. But it's almost at the low of 115.03 that was made back in September of 2022. What was the low the other day? The low was 117.23. So it's really close. This is exactly the area. You see this base right here? Within 10 points of that base, Moderna should start at least an attempt to have a pretty decent rally. And what would the rally do? It might be a rally to get back to where we are today at 118. And then if it holds, 127 is the pink, nine-period moving average in the weekly chart. I don't know about 130 to the 40-period. It's just in the wrong area at the wrong time. And I don't know what they've got in play at this particular point in terms of the FDA approvals or anything to do with their research. And this A-pattern in the monthly chart still has the nine-period, very weak. The MACD is very weak. The unbalanced volume is holding okay. Stochastic is quite weak at 19%. Oh, it needs a lot of work to change the technical for a sustained rally. It could have a balance. But I'd be real careful. So if you have a longer term position, much lower down, I think that's fine as a long-term position. I think at some point there's a chance that Moderna does become like the Pfizer's and the Eli Lilly's in the pharma companies or even the biotechs like, let's see what Amgen's doing. Amgen has had a nice balance. Biopharma has gone to a peak B and now it's stalling. Yeah, it's just been tough for some of these. And the irony is that the pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly, look, LLY, all-time high as we speak, making it all-time high. I don't know if Mooc is making it all-time high. No, it did make the high at 119.65. The last high was made back in May, I think it was, of this year, plummeted down to 106. And now it's at 112. So this is peak A and this is peak B. Yeah, so a bit of stalling motion here. So yeah, I'd be kind of careful. I wouldn't want to add the second position just yet. Most importantly, the second position, I don't want to have it so that now you're averaging down. In other words, the second position should be a plan. The plan should be I'm getting in here. Let's just say you got in after the big move to the 497. You got in the 113s. I don't know where you got in. But if you're in a positive situation right now, I don't think I would add because it's just been in a failure pattern. It hasn't shown any sign of strength that at least I can monitor and say, hey, look at this, it's going to have a surprise move to the upside. That's sustainable. A popular can ask pops before, but it doesn't go over the 14 period of moving areas in the week each hour. So I just be real careful with that. Longer term, if you have done your own homework and you like it, then I'm just saying if you're asking my opinion, I'd hold off on the second position. I don't want to be averaging down. In other words, that would be the plan that you're in a great position. You had a big move up and now you've got to move down. And this is where you want to get your second entry. That's different to averaging down. All right. So let's see, we've got that. So question came in. Could I look at the NIO? So NIO made a peak C. It looked like it was holding well enough to go to a D, but then look what happened. If the sarcastic goes for just a couple of bars above 80%, and then quickly turns down with on balance volume, just be real careful. It's saying to you, no, not enough strength. I did draw this in a long time ago as one of, I believe, I don't know if it's accurate, but I drew this in as one of Larry's, Persevento's Gotti patterns.  It took it out decisively. So that's NIO. I'd just be real careful if you're trading for inch a day stuff. Yeah, a little bounce. Yeah, the bounce can go a little bit further, but that was just too deep a pullback for me to feel comfortable to say, hey, great. I'd go long. I'd be careful. I just want to check this out here. This is the E-mini. So there's always two fighting patterns here. It was a cup formation that was fighting the arch formation, the arch formation one. And then what happened? It went to peak A, peak B. It's in leg C right now. This is a nice, you see, there are buyers there. And that's what I was saying to subscribers. We want to be careful. There was one position, as I say, that we wanted to buy. If we didn't get it by 10 to 10 this morning, I just said, forget about it. And I hadn't even thought of going along the Dow via the UDOW, just for a trade. But that's kind of conflict. Yeah, I am short, short's working. Okay. And I want to go long. I don't want to mix apples and oranges. Adobe, Adobe. Yeah, I looked at Adobe earlier. Let me tell you something about some of these stocks, ADBE. The other thing I'm shorting, oh, shorting Adobe. Oh, I didn't mean to do that in that shorting Adobe. Yes. I was looking at this. In fact, I'll do a little bit of, do I need to do any work? I think we've already got all notated already. It's one of those Google stocks, et cetera. Yes. I want to talk about this particular pattern. And then I'll answer the question about sell signal, going to sell mode. I'll be back. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago. And the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year. 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This has got a second P.D. here Underneath the previous high, I don't really like that. That's a pity that it did that. I would have loved if it just popped above 43.88. It could still do that, but this is not the pattern that I really like, but it is. The 9 is over the 14, the 1-minute chart. Look at this, the 10-minute chart. So the question came in as a two-click session. Right in this area at 8.30, at 8.30 when the low was 43.72 to 43.74, that was the best click but you had to sit through two big moves to the upside and then giving it almost all back. This would be a very frustrating two-click session and now you're at 43.83 after all that. This is a tough one, but absolutely if you were in at the 74 level and you had maybe a two-point stop, the low that was made right here at 10.20 was 43.74.50. So this is a real, this is a tough one because the bias I said to subscribers this morning, the bias is towards the upside today. It was a little bit yesterday and it's a lot more today and I expected that leg E, gray leg A in the Dow. Let me just go to this here and see what we've got. Yeah, so we've got a gray leg A. See right there? But the nine is still over the 14. So there is residual strength, but okay, here's something I wanted to talk about and I'm going to get to some of the questions that have come in. I showed this chart. It's a chart that I find I cannot put in the data that would make it a fabulous platform because some of it is very visual and if you were to do this, if you had to do it with, you know, computerized in other words, you had some kind of a program. There's just too many ifs and ands and all, but visually look, it's so easy. Back in November of 2022, I said we are in a period that has this hovering over us, this whole issue of yields, many big questions, inflation, just the potpourri of things. And that's the dark news cloud cover at any point the Dow ignores it. The same information on one day is ignored and the same information the next day is very important. And that says this whole area right here is a bad area. It's a bad area for news. Every time we get in there, something comes up. Well, I'm going to keep, and I said I'm just going to keep here as opposed to putting in little squares or rectangles. I'm just keeping this as the huge thing that's kept this market from making new all-time highs. To break above, in other words, I'll use the Dow right now. If the Dow on any day in the next six to eight weeks can even touch 35,000, we're out of this. Then I can go back to putting in little real squares to get shorter term nuanced. But at this particular point, you can see how the market's been repelled every time it gets into the 33,500 to 33,800, or sorry, 34,800, hasn't been able to get to that 35,000 level. But that's hovering over us. But I'm slowly seeing enough evidence to say within the context of this dark news cloud cover, things are lightening up a lot. In fact, the reason why I haven't gone fully negative and chosen particular stocks other than selective stocks that I think are coming down sharply is because I see a rotational correction going on. I still see PAVE. I'm going to get to Adobe Inniman. I still see, I typed in the wrong place. I still see PAVE, which is the ETF, global, you've got to click on that, and then it'll work. There it is. Okay. I still see it as, look at that, all-time high. As we're speaking, this is the global ex-US infrastructure. That's the reason why, just for a moment there, I thought, is it even possible that we are looking at a potential slide right now that is not those big multi-triple-digit down days in the Dow, and that we've really just consolidated. We've got to consider this more a consolidation, and that's really what I'm thinking. That's the reason why we have a small position and a three-time short. We are trying to get another one, which looks like that area could be due for some rotational correction. But if PAVE is making it all-time high, look at this trend line in the month. It's gone right to the door of the inside track repellent zone.  Is this a D? Ho-ho-ho. No, this is still a C. The weekly chart is still extremely positive. All right. I wanted to just show you why I can't get just over-enthusiastic on the short side, but on the long side, very selectively, yes, we want to be adding to positions and we want brand-new positions. I've told the subscribers, but in the next couple of weeks, there are going to be really good buys coming up. And we want to be ready for them. We're already planning which ones and why and where. And that's going to be really important. So just go back to this e-mini for a second, then we'll go to Adobe. Yeah, so this is gone. There's a high that was made at peak F-top at 9.40 this morning at 43.90. Yeah, hard to see. 43.89. And this high right here was 43.88.25 at a peak E. So I do see some residual strength today and that's going to be flurries of buying. I don't know how much they can take. This 10-minute chart should go to a D. It should therefore go to 43 probably 92.93 and then we'll see what happens after that. So we'll see what happens. All right. Let's get back to our story. A question came in about Adobe, DBE. Adobe, yeah.  It's not exactly a carried gain if you had to have a program and you probably, that program would have a tough time and all I'm going to do in this case is usually the peak E I make it red and the little plus sign because that's where other things can happen. But at the same time, you've got a chapter and restart here. But if we take out 460 at any point, we're at 483.01, 460. Wait a minute. This is Adobe. No, if we take out this low right here, 472.32 in the next couple of days, then I think it's going to be pulling back quite sharply. So the question is, what was it? Yeah. Okay. And where was the question on Adobe? Oh, thinking of shorting Adobe, want to be near the 492.75 area? Your thoughts. Yes. So it's at 483. Now, the big problem here is that if Adobe closes over this candle right here, the 495.355 high of the 21st of June, it can make its way towards that high that was made at 518.74 on the 16th. So I'd be a little careful. Yeah, I agree with you. This looks like it wants to be one of those that's short-specified. I'll turn it down. Careful. The Dojo candle last week in a very small candle so far this week. But there is reason. It should be at 39. It's way above 50. So I'd be a little careful. Take this. The gold report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. 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Let me just get this as I'm looking at this. So let's just go through this. Len. So yes, Len. It's done spectacularly. Here's your leg D. We were missing the leg D. There's that leg D in the Chapman methodology. That's what you want from a bicycle upgraded to a buy mode, the D. You've got a D in the D, D in the weekly, a C in the, I have to call that C at this point, but I really should say it's really an E slash C because we never took out the low in the 20 area from 2020. So this could be a continuation pattern, but everything about it looks fresh. It looks good. The stochastic in the monthly is 89%. Everything looks good. So I'm calling that a C in the monthly in Lenar. Uh, what was it? X, H, B. I've done this so many times. I don't think I've got it now because I got shut down suddenly. Yeah, a blank chart. This is just frustrating as anything. So here we go. Peak A, peak B. This is almost like the S and P. Oh my goodness. This is peak A, peak B monthly. And then inside we've got an A. Remember if you get an inside peak A, B, C, and a D under the previous B, that negates that B. It's fulfilled other obligations by getting to a D. So this is still very strong. This is the X, H, B, which is the, the spider. Okay, let me just get this right here. This is the spider home builders. I tend to use the, not as a trading vehicle, but I tend to use the HGX. That is the Philadelphia housing sector index. This has gone to a leg D date. It looks like the others. Yeah, so let me just answer that question. I think it's a question for me because I had a question mark there and we've got others to come. So let me just do this. So this is a G slash B in the, in the weekly chart with all the technicals very strong. It's a leg C in the daily, in the monthly chart, 538, 36 was the all-time high back in May of 2021. We're at 539.81. As we speak, we're at 539.52. It's a new all-time high. And this, you see this C right here? That C is an overlapping wave with that peak B. This is what I was hoping we would see in the S&P in 2023. There's still time. We'll see what happens here. That is really powerful. That says we should still go to a D and the lip of 538.36 should be tested a couple of times. But this is powerful. This is a Chapman wave. In fact, I'll type it in here because I must make it absolutely sure that I've got a leg C. Yes, I do. Leg C. Oh my, this is worth doing and taking a little moment for. This is live on Tiger Financial News Network. So we've broken the Chapman wave falling exformation. Going to the upside, taking out all the left side resistance points. I would normally have gone like this from here, 538.36 to the low, which was right there, and had a measured move. Chapman wave, bar symmetry, left side, right side, price, time match. You parallel make that green. Oh my. Oh my. Look at this. I think it's early. Oh, it's one month early. One month early, we've broken it to the upside. Okay. This is either we get a double top now, but a leg C in an overlapping wave. So this is what I would normally type in. You see me do it with other charts. Certainly my subscribers have. I put Chapman wave over lapping wave. Actually, I usually squash it so that I can get in wave to leg D. I type in and I usually make it gray. So I'm not in that camp. I'm sorry. I just can't be in that camp about a crash at this particular point. I think if I'm right, I suspect that we're still going to get that major move that gets everybody into the market. The IAI, which is the, here we go, the IAI, which is the broker dealer ETF. We're still going for 45s. I did the 92 area. Actually, we'd all the way to 106 and now it's pulled back sharply. I suspect that this particular index will make all time highs in the 118, 122 area at some point when we get if I'm correct in saying that we haven't got the hysteria that you get when you're making serious major market tops. And I suspect that's going to happen. And there's no question in my mind that the artificial intelligence sector itself will be probably one of the leaders, one of the culprits. So that's what I'm looking at. So I don't see that we've already had pretty serious smash to the downside. Let's go to a KRE. KRE we once had it. We got out of it for a little bit of a profit. Here it is going from, there's a peak D in the 45-ish area right there. That's a down arrow. That's a sell signal. Upgrade to a sell mode. Even if there's a decent rally here, that was a designation at that particular time. We haven't taken out this left side low of June back in the 38 area. So you're at 40.73 up, 64 cents today. But look at that weekly chart. That is not a great looking chart at all in the weekly chart. The XLF. Oh, did you mention the XLF? I'll just do that right now. Oh, Hindenburg. Yeah. Now, I know that you're just quoting other people, but I'm just saying, I don't see it. I might be completely wrong with WFC as well as Fargo. We went to peak A, B, C, D, E, F over there, above the 200-period moving average. Now, under the 200-period moving average, it's just a struggling, struggling. It has made a peak D, I believe. I had notated all the banks, the money center banks. I just don't have it right here, but I'll just do this in a split second A. B, C. There's your D with a down arrow in the monthly, as well as Fargo. So the weekly has made the dreaded H now. It's trying to come out of it. That could be good, but it says that the left side high in the 49s, it's going to, 48s, 49, is going to be tough to break on this move. It needs more, it needs to build more strength. So my answer is, I don't see it. You could be 100% correct, but at this particular time, I don't see it. I would have been seeing it if right now, we are down. Look, let me just show you something. Let's go to the QQQ. If the QQQ at this particular point was in the 352 to 350 area, after just a week and a little bit of trading, I'd say, oh, that's really bad. But it just doesn't dive to the downside. And that says that 9th group moving average over the 14th, at any point, it can actually balance the game. So I'm just going to let Keck, if he had 80% of the downside and the green 9th group moving average, it will return to think. I'd say, oh, this could be a serious move down. No, I think I'm seeing isolated buying come in. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den. Hosted at Discord, TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. 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First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know, and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com – Educating Investors If you trade for 35 to 40 minutes above 187.50, it could get very close to the high it was made yesterday of 188.05, and then it could go to D, and then I think you've got to be a little bit careful, but there's no technical indication at all yet on Apple that it should pull back other than have a little bit of a digestive phase at this stage, but I'm watching the Doji possible candle at leg D in the weekly chart. A question came in Amazon, Amazon, we're looking at here. Amazon is trading, there's your peak D potential. But the weekly charts are still very strong. That's why I'm saying I think this is a digestive phase that's going to impact the daily charts a little bit the weekly charts, but the weekly charts are stocks that have been really strong. That can continue for a while longer. A question came in about where it was, whoops, whoops, whoops, whoops. Yes, could I look at Disney? So Disney is pulling back, it doesn't look great. One that I have liked for a long time, it's holding well, but it's still not giving me any big indication is six, which is six flags entertainment themes. I'm watching this one closely because this is where it should do well, but I believe that they're just, they're not very diligent in their bookkeeping and everything. If something's wrong, it's just that they don't, they don't manage the company as well as they should. So, okay, and another thing I want to just show you right here, the INDU, yes, the Dow is up, it's up and it's trying to challenge the next level, which will be the 33, 890 resistance. I'm watching this closely. I think that we've got a bounce coming here and that bounce could go a little bit further and then we've got to test everything. All right, folks, we've got a sale going on right now, here at T-Type Management Network. This is going to be a fantastic company coming up, choosing stuff that may give us some, maybe you're happy with the ad. This is what people at the OP Call News Federal are trying to get ad back to positions that we have to make for the gains. It's a good time to be doing it. Have a wonderful-


Okay. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. For those of you who do not know, my name is advertisements was Darren Miller, I'm the Assembly Member for Clwyd West. And, in conjunction with Other Butty's members, I'm delighted to be here today for an inaugural meeting as a cross party group on monetary reform. It's great to see so many people in attendance and it's good to see colleagues from other parties including Julie Morgan including the charismatic a'n amgylch yn Majesty University yng Nghymru a fe fyddai'n gyfo'i trefnwyr am ystyried o cyflwyno'r myl fynd bryd yn y casach. Na wnaeth gwybod bod yn fawr i'r ysgol bryd wedi'i gweithio yng nghymru, dy fan chi'r gwirionedd yng nghymru i'r angen am oherwydd o'r dal. A wnaeth i fod yn cael ei ddweud am y magniffysol erbyn rydw i'w teimlo, fyddai'n gwirionedd o hyn o phrygau. Felly mae'n gweithio'n gwybod mewn ei roi. Roeddwn ni'n gwybod yma, fel y cyffredin hon, ond gan gwaith fynd i ddim yn cwestiynau, ac oeddwn ni fe allwch gweithio eu bwysig i drwng mlyneddol i gyffredinol am allwch chi arweinyddio i'r gweithi gyda'r Plynedd Trif展. Chyma chi i gyd- Ref Wyrdd, mae'r cyfrifheithau o'r grondd Llywodraeth, roeddwn ni'n gwaith griffw knife ar gyfer y system mewn cyfrifithych gyda'r cyfrifwng yn yr unrhyw gwneud sy'n gweithio'n gweithialauol yn y cyfrifwng Cymru. Yes, there is no crisis that we have at the moment. But before I do that, I just want to restate the common understanding of government finances. So you have the public and we get money from the public to fund government spending. Now the problem in theory right now is that the public don't have enough money, businesses aren't making enough money and therefore there is not enough taxes to fund the current level of government spending. i'n dda i'r ddigon i'r borgon ac rwy'n gweithio bod bod oes bod yn meddwl gwithio, yn bethau y ddigon a ddigon. Mynd i'r ddigon yn meddwl i'r droswyr i'n gwirionedd'i ein edrych gwlad o blaenau i allan nhw'n meddwl ar ystod.  Felly, chwarae i'r ddweud y cwestiwn dweud o'r ddigon oherwydd, mae'n cael deallu o'ch bwysig arall, dweud o'ch bwysig o'ch gwaith o rhad o'r gwaith o'r llaw. gyda un kimbwyd, dw i'r iawn yn fy fanc i gwasio. Y cwysod yn ddiddorde i'r gweithio yn cynhyrchu a'r iddyn nhw'n pofi ff angrifidd yng Ngw espai ar y peynon面eg Cygo'reddazodd 3% Dwi'n fath o wneud am leld y�도ch yn y eineud ar 90% felly yr�計adwch yn dfallion pepper.imsu arwe masterlas gangofsti o'r madnessol a sim Silk, i pubwyd yn 97% leather y bans. Felly, mae'n gwaith mae'n gweithio'n bans yma yng Nghaerdydd yn gyfnodol yma. Ond yna, y ffyrst i'r byw ymryd, mae'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio. Yn amser i'w ffyrdd o'r cwlwch ar hyn, mae'n gwybodaeth nesaf yng Nghymru, yng Nghymru, yng Nghymru a'r y peth yn gweithio ag oedd y bydd. Gweithioedd Morolnau Cymru yw'r newid i ni am adael gweithio'r gwybwyno. Felly byddwn yn gyffin yn y gweithio, mae fydd fydd yn gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio prifsgaf y bydd hyn yn gweithio'r gweithio gyda'r gweithio gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio, mae'n gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio. Mae hynny'n gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio. This is the chief economics commentator of the Financial Times, Martin Wolff. The essence of the contemporary monetary system is the creation of money out of nothing by private banks often foolish lending. This is the Bank of England themselves in one of their reports. By far the largest role in creating broad money is played by the banking sector. When banks make loans they create additional deposits for those that borrow the money. This is Jesse Norman, a Tory MP who is on the Treasury Select Committee. Commercial banks have an even greater power than that. They have the power to create credit, that is money, by expanding their balance sheets. It is not widely understood how important this power is of the money presently in circulation in the UK economy today. 3% takes the form of cash. 97% is in credit and deposits. This financial alchemy is an extraordinary privilege which we as citizens and taxpayers underwrite. The fact that the money that we use is actually created by the banking sector rather than by the government isn't particularly well understood or particularly well known. But it's an issue that's becoming more widely discussed as you'll just see from the quotes just there. We have a situation where just 3% of all the money in the economy comes from the state through the Bank of England. 97% is really just numbers in a computer system and these numbers are created when banks make loans. If this is the first time you've heard this you're probably thinking why didn't we know this before? There is a book that we put together called Where Does Money Come From. We got a comment on the back from Professor David Miles of the Monetary Policy Committee. He just says the way that monetary economics and banking is taught in many, maybe most universities is very misleading. What is taught in universities is actually a model of the banking system that really was obsolete about 30 years ago. But we still have staff in the Treasury and in policy making roles who are following that model. And this is dangerous because it's like allowing engineering students who don't understand gravity to build skyscrapers. We need to make sure that the people that are managing the economy understand money and where it comes from and how it's created. So how much money have the banks actually created? Well this chart here, you see this green line at the bottom is the notes and coins the cash that is created by the Bank of England. And then this mountain of money up here is the money that has been created by the banking system. And you can see that it took the first 300 odd years of the Bank of England's existence for the banking system to create the first trillion pounds. And then the next eight years to create the second trillion. Now I'm going to show you the consequences of this very shortly. Now there's a question, if it's banks that are creating the money that makes up 97% of all money in the economy, then who is deciding how that money will be used? Is it the local branch managers who make decisions over lending to businesses? Well the reality is these guys don't exist anymore. This sort of local decision making doesn't exist. What happens is the decisions are made at the board level. And it's a broad decision over you're on the board of one of these big banks. Are we going to prioritise lending to business? Are we going to focus on the investment banking and speculation? Or are we going to put all our money into property? And what this means essentially is that in the UK the five largest banks have about 85% of the market share. And therefore they have the bulk of the decision making over where this money goes. They have approximately, well they have about 78 board members between them. Probably only 20 of those are the key decision makers. And it's those 20 people who are deciding how the big banks create and allocate money across the economy. In the five years running up to the financial crisis they allocated £2.9 trillion. And actually the entire British government only spent £2.1 trillion in that time. So the banking sector actually has more spending power than the government. And what that means is the money follows the priorities of the big banks. So we have right now just 8% of all bank lending goes to productive businesses. So the businesses that contribute to the GDP figure that everybody is so focused on. This is the job creation and the non-financial part of the economy. 92% goes towards non-GDP businesses, house price bubbles and financial speculation. So this fairy tale that what banks do is they take money from savers and lend it to businesses is just that. It's a fairy tale. Right, so just to recap the key points. New money is created by the banking system every time somebody takes out a loan, a mortgage or an overdraft. And that has led us to the situation where the money supply has grown like this over the last 40 years. So the consequences. Well, the first consequence, most people are familiar with the idea that if you just print money you end up with inflation in the style of Zimbabwe or Weimar Republic Germany. Now again, Mervyn King, when loans are made this creates new money. And then he went on to say that the usual role of a central bank is to limit this rate of money creation so that excessive expansion of money spending does not lead to inflation. Now this is how well they've managed to control that expansion in the money supply. There's been since about 1970 the average growth rate of the amount of money in the economy has been 11.5% much faster in the recent years as well. But we have Mervyn King here saying during the last 20 years annual consumer price inflation in this country has averaged 2.1%, remarkably close to the 2% target. So if the money supply has been growing at 11.5%, why are prices only going up at 2%? Well, the answer is that where the inflation happens depends on where the money goes. So in the 10 years running up to the start of the crisis, all the additional new money that was created by the banking sector, this is how it was distributed across the economy. About 10% went to consumer finance, so credit cards, personal loans, things like this. 40% went to housing. Just 13% went to the non-financial businesses in the economy. That's the part of the economy that contributes to the GDP figures. And then 37% went into financial markets, financial intermediation, and essentially the financial sector. And you can see one of the results of that. If you look at the stock market from the last few years, that curve pretty much follows the expansion of the money supply as well. But the most obvious impact is on houses and house prices. Now this chart here, the purple line is house prices from relative to 1991. So over the last 20 years we've had a three-fold increase in house prices. Now you commonly hear that this is because there's too many people and not enough houses. You'll hear this argument in the press. This green line down here is the population growth. So over 20 years the population grew by just 8%. This red line, which is slightly above the green line, is the growth in the number of houses and flats and apartments in the UK. And that grew by 16% in that time. So for every four new people we built three new houses. So supply and demand doesn't really explain why house prices have gone up. The only thing that really does is this line at the top, which is mortgage lending. And if you remember from what we've just seen earlier, every new mortgage creates an equivalent amount of new money. So this is really money creation and most of that money has gone into property and that's what has pushed up property prices. Now the impact of that is if you add in the interest, if you'd have bought a house in 1952 it would have cost you about five years and three months of your salary to pay off everything. Nowadays if you buy a house last year you would be looking at spending 11 years and eight months of your salary just to pay off the mortgage. Okay, so then let's go into the impact on jobs and businesses. Well we have what economists call the real economy, which is the non-financial sector essentially. And we have the banking sector. And it's the banking sector that creates the money that the real economy has to use in order to be able to do business and to trade. There has to be interest paid on all of this money because it has to be borrowed. And what that means is that almost every pound circulating through the banking system, every pound in your bank account is matched by a pound of debt owed by somewhere else. And we're effectively paying interest on the entire money supply. So that's a big redistribution of income from the real economy to the financial sector.  The rest of the economy needs money in order to function. And even if it's just circulating within Wales for example, that money still has to be created by a bank in the first place. And again, interest has to be paid on all the money that exists. So that is a big redistribution back to the centre. In terms of how it affects businesses. Now a lot of people would think that consumer finance is good because it means more spending, more money coming through your shop till. Now the reality is that what happens is people, they borrow, they spend on credit cards, they use personal loans. But all of this money is being spent on credit and eventually you get the bill. And people think well I've borrowed too much, I'm going to stop spending now. So they stop spending, the economy starts to go down. Now in this time businesses here are investing in expanding, taking on more staff. Most businesses are not really aware of how the monetary system works. They assume that the economy is doing really well. They just see more money coming through the till and they think well we'll expand, we'll open new branches, we'll take on debt in order to expand the business even faster. And then in this point they're laying off and trying to survive. Now it would be better rather than having the feast and famine that we have with all the credit cards and all this creation of money. It would be better for most businesses to have steady spending year on year so that they can grow without having this instability. Now when you have the recession that inevitably happens because there's too much debt in the economy it tends to be the low paid and the temporary contract workers who get laid off first because they have the least secure contracts. So this has a real impact for the poor and for people on low paid jobs. Now this is a dear turner who's the Chairman of the Financial Services Authority. For about two years we've been arguing that it's a monetary system that caused the crisis. About ten days ago he came out and said the financial crisis of 2007 to 2008 occurred because we failed to constrain the private financial systems creation of private credit and money. And this is exactly what we've been arguing. Now it has a big impact on debt as well. Again because all the money that we use has to be borrowed from the banks. And you have to make the repayments plus the interest. And we've calculated largely from Bank of England figures that interest on all the existing debt is 108 billion to 217 billion a year depending on where the interest rates are at the time. And again this is a huge transfer from the public to the banking system. Some of it comes back to savers in the way of interest on your savings but much of it is just siphoned off in the middle and it goes through to the huge bonuses and the big salaries. Now having a monetary system that works this way means that the economy doesn't function quite as most people would assume it does. The first rule of how the economy actually functions is that if we need more money in the economy then we have to take on more debt because banks are effectively the only source of additional money coming into the economy. They create it when people go into debt when people take out loans. Sorry as Mervyn King has said here. Now if we have a crisis that is caused by people having too much debt and then we want people to start paying down that debt well the problem is as Mervyn King says a damaged banking system means that today banks aren't creating enough money. They're not lending enough and people are repaying existing debts. Now the problem when people repay existing debts is that he says here as private sector balance sheets contract public sector that's a government and central bank balance sheets have to take the strain. What he's referring to is the fact that when you repay your loans the reverse process happens to when you take out a loan. So you take out a loan and new money is created. When you repay a loan that money disappears from the system. What is happening post crisis is that people are trying to repay this debt. Now what this means is that we would have less money in the economy. If people are successful in paying down their debts then the money supply shrinks and if the money supply shrinks it's like taking the oil out of the engine of a car and eventually everything grinds to a halt. What we need right now is we need less debt and we need more money in the economy but that is practically impossible with the current monetary system until we reform that system. I just want to move on to what positive money you're arguing for. That's a very brief overview of some of the problems that this system causes. What we would like to see is that we remove the power of banks to create money and the reason for that is because firstly if you get the power to create money to banks they're always going to create too much because of the incentives and the bonuses and the drive to maximise your profit by lending as much as possible and Adair Turner has sort of stated this quite clearly just a couple of weeks ago the existence of banks as we know them today fraction of reserve banks exacerbates these risks because banks can create credit and private money and unless controlled we'll tend to create suboptimally large or suboptimally unstable quantities of both credit and private money the impact of fraction of reserve banks that's the monetary system we have today is thus to make the financial system and the overall economy inherently more invulnerable to instability so they'll always create too much and this causes instability in the economy they also create it for the wrong things we have huge quantities of money pushing up house prices which makes it more expensive for people to live we have huge quantities of money blowing up the financial markets and yet we have relatively little money going into the real businesses that actually create jobs and actually provide the salaries that will allow people to pay these inflated house prices and again as Adair Turner has said the financial crisis was caused by this ability of the banking system to expand the money supply so we want to return the power to create money to the state now this is often seen as quite radical but it's actually been done before in the past in the 1840s banks would when you put your metal coins into a bank they would give you a piece of paper in return and that would be a receipt and it would say you deposited £5 now people started to use these receipts in place of the money because it was easier to carry paper around than it was to carry those coins around as these pieces of paper became used as money and then banks realised that if they printed more of them people would accept them they'd borrow them and pay interest on top and that would allow them to maximise their profits now with those incentives they ended up creating too much paper money so in 1844 a conservative prime minister Robert Peale stepped in and said well this needs to be stopped we can't have all these private banks just creating money when they feel like it they've passed the law that now makes it illegal for you or I to print our own money now ever since then the profit on creating paper money which is the difference between the cost of printing a £10 note and the actual £10 value of it goes to the treasury and it reduces how much taxes have to be paid and this has been a significant amount of money probably about £18 billion over the last 10 years which is enough to pay the salaries of about 120,000 nurses it's significant but the problem is that this law has never been updated since 1844 so it still only applies to banknotes even though banknotes now are just 3% of all the money in the economy and 97% of all the money is numbers in computer systems which are created by banks now what this has meant is that the government as a whole has lost about £2.1 trillion in government revenue today from allowing the banking sector to create money in place of the state and you can see that here this is what the profit that we've made on creating cash and this is the profit that has been lost by allowing the banking sector to have this role the question always is if you give the state the power to create money it will be inflationary well I think the response to that is well really is this not inflationary allowing banks to have this power to create money and giving them the incentives that will drive them to create too much but of course you do need to protect it from political abuse so you don't necessarily want to give that power to the chancellor you want to give it to an independent body and just say simply if inflation goes up then you need to stop creating money and all we need to do is use that money that is created in the public interest and there are a number of options that you can use to get this money into the economy the first obvious to are that you either spend more on public services or you use that money to cover your existing spending and you cut taxes instead and you could do this decentralise so if they're going to create £50 billion then you could distribute that and make sure the Welsh Assembly can distribute its proportion the same with Scotland and across the UK you could use it to pay down the national debt there's a number of reasons that wouldn't be a high priority which I haven't got time to go into but the other option is that you could just give it directly to people so for example with the quantitative easing the £375 billion that has been created and put into financial markets if that was divided up between people you would have had your recession would have been over people would have been able to pay down their debts and you would have had a real stimulus on the high street and in real businesses so I just want to give you to wrap up one example of how absurd this situation has become and it's something that really really winds me up the schools rebuilding programme now for the English school rebuilding programme they've just announced about £2 billion for work to be carried out over five years about 600 schools applying to this scheme 219 were accepted they're using a private financial initiative to meet the cost of this so they're borrowing money from the private sector probably from banks which will be created out of nothing by the banking system because the government hasn't got enough money of itself and the reason they're doing this is because it allows them not to record it as part of the capital budget which has been reduced to £3.8 billion now in Wales in particular this is the schedule for Wales for the rebuilding here a total of £1.36 billion to be spent on rebuilding schools up to 2015 a total of £4.43 billion to do the full rebuilding job over about 15 years so this is mortgages this green line at the top in 1999 in one month the banking sector created £4.5 billion of new money to fund mortgages and consumer finance in July 2005 they created £7 billion of new money to keep expanding this landing in September 2007 they created £16 billion of new money so the entire 15 year school rebuilding project for Wales is equivalent to one weeks worth of money creation in 2007 by the banking sector and yet we've given the banks this power to create money we've economists have convinced themselves that the state can't handle that power responsibly and instead of putting say the QE money into something useful it's gone straight back into the financial markets and then you can see so actually this £375 billion is enough to employ 3.5 million people on £20,000 a year for five years and yet we have 3 million people sat at home across the across the nation desperately looking for something to do so this is just one example of how absurd this system is of allowing the banking system to create money in place of the state in terms of how we repair this we've spent a lot of time thinking this through we're releasing a book in January which is about 300 pages of detail of how actually you can fix this system and take that power to create money back to the state so I'll wrap up there so we've got time for questions can we just flick the lights on at the back