Hello everyone, I'm John Furrier with theCUBE. We are here in Palo Alto for a special CUBE conversation here with Graham Thompson who's the new CIO at Informatica joined mid-year last year in 2016 here to discuss with me the Informatica World 2017 preview discussion kicking off as their event comes up next month. Graham, great to see you. Thanks for coming in for this CUBE conversation. Yeah, thanks John, nice to be here. So the industry's at an inflection point right now. This has been a really phenomenal year and past few years leading up to it, but we're now at this inflection point where you're seeing the tipping point with cloud computing, you're seeing the tipping point with data-driven strategies across the board. So more compute, more flexibility, more infrastructure, a lot of automation, but it's an inflection point we haven't seen in decades. We're expecting to see a sea change of transformation, wealth creation, value creation, whatever you want to call it, this is happening and it's putting people in different positions in the marketplace and in their competitive space. What's your thoughts on this? How does this play into Informatica World 2017? Yeah, so firstly, as an IT practitioner, it's really exciting, I think we finally, as CIOs and IT leaders, we finally have the opportunity to add the strategic value that we've been, that we've really been asking for. We've spent the last 20 years optimizing back office global processes, that kind of stuff and now there's more and more of the competitive advantages based on digital assets instead of physical assets. The CIO and the IT organization is really well placed to help take advantage of that. Interesting, Jeff ML, who I've interviewed on the panel, I hosted at one of their minds in machine conferences years ago, he has a famous quote that says, he went to bed as a manufacturing company, woke up as a software analytics company. Highlighting the fact that there have been industrial, a lot of industrial equipment, but really focusing on that the shift is changing to that software analytics as now the key thing that he as a CEO thinks about. So as a CIO, Chief Information Officer, like you said, that was kind of like, keep the lights on, run the trains on time, things are happening, yeah, patch the software, the stack and rack, some pets, you take care of the pets in the data center, now some are saying they're not pets anymore, they're cattle, but the CIO has certainly transformed. What have you seen and experienced in the sea change that's happening because the strategic impact of the CIO certainly you're the most important person because you have both sides that you've seen, you've seen the evolution of the data center and now going forward, what's changed? Yeah, so I think the CIOs and IT people in general, and generally engineering folks, they see the company, the enterprise as a system, it's a series of things that all has to work together. And we like problem solving, we like tackling different difficult problems and we like to make things better every quarter, every year. And this is really the opportunity to do that at the enterprise level, at the industry level, is here now where it probably wasn't so much in the past. So the obvious examples are the app economy companies like Uber and Airbnb, but less obvious and maybe just as interesting are traditional companies like GE where they used to do the maintenance based on what a physicist thought was likely to happen. Now they can do proactive maintenance based on what they actually know about the engine because of the sensors that are sending real-time data based on friction and heat and what altitude the things flying at that causes different wear and tear. So we, and that can only be done because people are harnessing the value of the data that's created as normal things go along their way. So that's the point that Jeff Emell Coat, as mentioned, this great point highlights that analytics data is the value proposition that's now changing how they do business. How important is that? It sounds easy. I mean, just throw data at it and solve the problem. How, explain how hard that really is because it's not trivial. You know, it was over-simplifying by just, you know, hand waving it away, but it's not, it's not easy. Talk about someone who's been in the trenches and you're in there right now, you're in the kitchen. You know, you got to take care of everything. How hard is it to be data-driven? Yeah, it's hard. So, and before talking about how to do it with the data, I think we have to reinforce that data really is the strategic asset. So if you competed based on how many factories you had and where they were located, if you competed on how much capital you had to invest, you would know where that infrastructure was. You would know where those assets were stored. You would know where the money was. But if you're now competing based on data, you ask a CIO, where's your data? Where's it come from? Where's it stored? How's it secured? How do you connect it from one cloud app to another cloud app? They have no clue. If they were talking about their money, in those senses, you would be scared. But because it's just data, people talk about it as the exhaust from the process.  So if you buy into the fact that data is important and data is now the asset that you're competing based on, then you have to take care of it, which means you have to know where it's created. You have to know where it's being used. And you have to be able to ask intelligent questions about where's the most profitable use of that data. My favorite example is between customer support and marketing. In a technology company, nobody knows more than the customer support organization about how your product's been used, what version they're running and what they're doing with it. And they know that because they have to provide support. The most profitable use for that data might be in the marketing organization. Marketing and customer support never share data. Yeah, they're siloed, and this comes back down to how the business practices are changing. Used to work great that way, but now there's a new normal. But also adding to that, I would also ask you to comment on security because I just got an email that here in Palo Alto, the school system, they didn't say it was hacked, but the way the words they used it got hacked. And they had a third party, nothing was compromised, so they just notify everyone they have to by law. But security is important because you now have relationships with third party, either applications, either APIs, the perimeter is no longer secure. It's like Swiss cheese, all these holes everywhere, but those are done with API and things are changing, right? So security is at the heart of it. So data hygiene, I can see that, but how does security play in there? Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the lack of effectiveness at the perimeter. So we used to try and control the security of our data by protecting the perimeter. And we do that by using traditional infrastructure techniques like firewalls and DMZs and all that kind of stuff. And you have to do that. You have to do that to protect the infrastructure. But if you're trying to protect the data, you have to protect the data and you have to protect it where it's created, where it's used, and as it moves around the ecosystem. So if you take a simple process like onboarding an employee, there's so much data floating around these cloud applications. You've got the initial employee record being created potentially in workday. It may have been born in a recruiting application like Great People. You've got benefits information flowing back and forward to healthcare providers. Somebody has to take care of where that information is and to be able to demonstrate that it's really secure. So I believe there's a big opportunity for companies that have solutions that secure the data where the data actually is and the ability to mask data that's clearly credit card information or mask data that's clearly PII, social security numbers and that kind of stuff. I think there's definitely an opportunity and obligation for us to take care of that. I'm speaking with Graham Thompson, who's the CIO of Informatic as a preview coming up for Informatica World in San Francisco. Graham, I got to talk to you about the debate we've been having in the industry and also internally amongst looking at another cube in our Wikibon analyst team. The CIO has always been the center of all the action when it comes to IT information technology as we talked about. But now with you mentioned analytics, you mentioned security and the emphasis of building applications in the cloud focuses on real-time value. So the roles are changing and you have a CDO, a chief data officer, you have a CSO, chief information security officer, you have a CIO and you also got a COO, CFO and CEO. So how are the roles changing because I could argue that the COO, it should be the CIO, it should be the COO because there's running everything, not just facilities. They're running top-line initiatives, they're running revenue-oriented. You mentioned customer service and marketing. Sharing data amongst those two teams could be a game changer for a company. So you could look at this as, I'm just not only mining the store at IT, you're driving an operational change over. How are these roles changing? How do you talk about that and what's your perspective on that? Yes, an interesting point. And we talk about that a lot as we're trying to segment our customers. As an example, we ask who is the target customer and we look for a job title. And in my opinion, that's a horrible way to do it and because companies aren't consistent in what they call these people. So in some organizations, the big transformation may be being led by the product team. In some companies, the big transformation may be being led by finance because you're changing the business model or by sales because you're changing how you go to market and serve your customers. So I think the title of the person I don't think is as important as the function that they provide and how that function fits into the big transformation that each company would be. And that's because of why. Is that because the companies have just have a different culture or semantics or just their transformation agenda is different? I mean, every company is the same anyway. It's like a human being. We're all made differently and more all unique. Is that the reason or is it just that there's no clean playbook at this point? I think there's no clean playbook. And I think it depends on the nature of the company. So some if you're a good friend of mine that used to be in a very high tech company and he left to go to be the CTO of a winery is completely different. And they look at him almost like he's the Wizard of Oz. You can solve these problems that for generations have been solved by looking at the sun and things like that. He can now put sensors in the ground and tell the the Vintners when to... He's a magician. He's a magician. He can tell them what day in September to harvest based on maximizing the volume, the quality, things that it took Grandpa Joe to figure out by looking at the sun. Well, this is interesting. I mean, the whole, that's a great example. Do you almost apply it to the enterprise in the modern world because there's an art to knowing your business, AKA the feel for the experience of knowing how to run a winery based on external facts, analog factors. But when you start to operationalize data, it changes. That's a great point. You guys are going through a transformation in Informatica and you were recently hired. What's some of the transformations that you guys are going through and how does that relate to what a potential customer who comes to your event will hear? Yeah, so we, as you said, we're going through our own little company transformation and I don't, we are very fortunate that some of our customers, some of the best companies in the world are transforming their business, their entire industry. So I don't mean to imply that our transformation is anything like what GE or Ford or MD Cancer Center or any of those great companies are doing. Well, they're bigger, public, they're huge. You guys are private and getting bigger. So for us. So different scale, I mean obviously scale point wise. So for us, our transform, we were taking private back in the fall of 15. And one of the things we are doing in this time period is shifting from being a license and maintenance traditional software company to being a subscription and cloud company. And we're doing that because our customers expect us to operate that way. We feel we can serve our customers much, much better by doing everything through the customer journey, much better. Traditional companies do a great job on the land and renew and they do a horrible job on the adopt and expand, which you could argue are the two most important activities in a subscription company. And honestly, it really forces you to pay attention to whether the customer's getting value out of your product every single day, not just when you sell it or renew it. So for us, that's a big shift and it has some major implications on the financial model. Revenue goes down in the short term because you have to recognize it rattably over the life of the service. Costs go up because you have to make investments in different sales models, IT infrastructure. So you end up stuck in a spot where costs are going up, revenue is going down, EBITDA is being squeezed and trying to do that as a public company is incredibly difficult. So we have the opportunity to do it. So you're retooling essentially with a new operating model of cloud and how customers are consuming software. I mean, you hear that all the time in the cloud transformation game, which is selling licenses and showing up as like a sales at the end of the month, hey, where's my renewal? That's over. You're going to start to see the value proposition be very much on demand, I buy as you go and cancel as you go if you don't like it. So it forces you to be better. Absolutely, it forces us to be a much, much better company. It forces us to be the kind of company that we aspire to be. And you have to provide value every single day. And also if you do that, if you do it well, it gives you the opportunity to help your customer out with those big buying cycles. And hopefully your customer doesn't wait until the compelling event to come back and buy more. They buy more because they love the solution, not because there's a compelling event that's introduced by us as a vendor. Graham, what's your advice to other CIOs out there? Because what's happening is you start to see a lot of people talking peer to peer, a lot of social activity going on because they want data on what's happening. So for the folks that are data hungry out there, pun intended, since you guys are data driven, what advice would you give, what data would you share and advice would you give to other CIOs that are really obviously know the transformation agenda's coming out? What should they be thinking about? What advice would you give them in terms of how to look at things, how to execute, what's some best practices from your perspective? Yeah, I mean, some of the best, most favorite discussions I have are with peers. And it may be misery loves company, it may be that we're all working on the same thing, facing the same challenges. But one thing is common across most of us, which is if we have technical debt and it could be technology debt or it could be legacy thinking debt, we've got a very short window to get rid of it because things are moving so quickly. You know, I think about where we are internally with most of our workload being in the cloud already. We're able to move incredibly fast. If I was encumbered by a legacy on-prem infrastructure, there's no way we could innovate at the pace that we're able to innovate. So there's a short window to get. So identify the technical debt and unroot it and cancel it. How do you do that? I mean, how do you identify where the debt is? I mean, is there, it might be that gut feeling it also could be some data. How do you look at that discovery of the debt and then how do you, once you discover it, how do you rectify the situation? Yeah, so part of it is, so I define it as anything that stops me going quickly. So there's no, you know, you could talk about some discrete definitions of age or technology types, but it's really for me, it's anything that's stopping me going fast. Anything that's encumbering quick innovation. So there needs to be a compelling event to rip it out because it's difficult. So we're fortunate that we've got this big transformation going on and when there's something big going on, it's easy to see how small the other things are. So instead of fighting over things like, is this business application that's been around for 10 years better than this one you could get from a major ecosystem provider, like Salesforce, Workday, Amazon. It doesn't really matter whether it's better or not, as does it fit the purpose that you have and does it serve the bigger objective of serving whatever transformation that you're in. So it's don't sweat the small stuff, get rid of the stuff that's stopping you from going quickly and then that frees up your cycles, your talent, your investment. Creativity is just off the charts. You get much more creativity in terms of building. Okay, final question. Informatica world's coming up. What are you excited about? What's going on? Share a little bit. I know you can't reveal any secrets in terms of the content agenda and announcements, but you have a feel for what's coming down the pike relative to the event. What are you excited about for Informatica world? So I'm really excited. This was my first Informatica world. I joined just after last year's event had finished. We have a new CMO. We've got a lot of new things that are going to be announced to the show. But for me, the most exciting thing is to hear about our customers and what our customers are doing with the products that we have. I'm very fortunate to have some of the world's best companies as our customer, and they are doing amazing things as they go through their own digital transformations. For some, it's IoT and AI and MI type things. For some, it's getting closer to their customers. For some, it's getting closer to other assets, product lifecycle assets, things like that. But every customer has a really great story to tell, and we've got some great speakers and great topics this year. So same as last year, a lot of customers doing the talking. I always say that's the benchmark for me. I go to a lot of events, and you know the good events when there's not a lot of company cool aid being distributed.  But if the agenda is packed with customers, usually that's a testimony, that's a really good track record. But also it's fun. I mean, you have a lot of customers in the audience, so the networking is phenomenal as well. This would be good. Graham Thompson, CIO, thanks for coming in with this special CUBE conversation, preview of Informatica World. Also talking about a lot of the threshold issues around being a CIO in this transformative market, super exciting times, as the roles evolve and change and change their interactions across companies. Certainly being data driven and being software and analytical focused with data has really been the key that's been your strength. Congratulations on your new role, one year anniversary coming up in June. I think June was it? Yeah. And your first Informatica World, great to see you and great to have you here for the CUBE conversation. I'm John Furrier here in Palo Alto for a special CUBE conversation. Thanks for watching.


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okay I'm just turning my microphone on we're coming up to eight o'clock and I'll welcome people the YouTube stream has started and is working which is good good morning everyone welcome to a Wednesday one-hour breakfast session I hope everybody's having a good trading week and the volatility certainly is around with a bang quickly I'll do the disclaimers all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations trading futures equities and digital currencies involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results okay quickly let's just have a look at the markets before we do anything else so yep we if we zoom right out and we see what's happened in book map and I've got the five-minute charts open across in trading view that cover the entire session so you can see what we had looking at yesterday's range we had a dip quite a big dip lower and we're now at the high the overnight high and it looks like we're deriving a little bit higher but we've come into a rather large liquidity band so it may provide a bit of resistance but we also have a major economic release in this session at 8 15 a.m. Eastern we've got the US ADP employment change and yeah with that in mind I mean you've got this large liquidity band in ES if we just scroll back and we've got the whole of the Asian session here you can see that liquidity band was there since 1800 hours New York yesterday so they basically put that one there as an advert as a flag and before they smashed it down so it's just interesting to note once again how you know it's not always going to happen you cannot predict the future but sometimes these resting liquidity levels placed hours in advance do come around and get tagged I mean there's also something else that I drew based on the the profile analysis in ETH versus RTH that we were looking at last week so if I just drag in my serial behave if I just drag in drag in yesterday's profile that's the white profile there which is RTH and I mark that one on when I woke up this morning you know because it's really the top end of value and I was curious to see whether you know after they broke down you know whether we would get to there something that I was talking about the other day was that they loved to test the entirety of value they may go beyond as they do but they often come back and test both sides of that value and it looks like that may be the case as we go into this news release at 8.15 by the way I'll just get rid of that one I may sound a little different tonight so if it is a little bit echoey please let me know I do not have my headset on I'm recovering from a cold but I am finally using a microphone I've had forever it's on a microphone stand now and I've been testing out the audio quality and audacity and it does sound absolutely fine but if anybody has any questions or does not like it on any comments rather please feel free to say and good morning to you I've got you on very small Alois good morning to you on YouTube as well so we're going right up to that 475 but anyway let us get on to the slides just so that we have them in place as some context before we get to before we get to sorry I have to go all the way back apologies for that yeah I was not on the right slide so yep same kind of format we're mixing it up partly because of the timing of the economic release so we are really doing the prepping context for today ASAPI now so we have some context before that release happens okay and the two major pieces of economic news 815 ADP non-farm employment and 10am ISM services so just those two so expect quite a lot of volatility today we've had a lot of volatility for the last little while I posted in the discord channel the ranges I can drag that back in again it entirely depends if my Sierra will behave itself sorry now I'll just switch to the display capture so we can see it this is updated from what I posted in discord a couple of hours ago or an hour ago so the average for the last ten days is the right hand number that for NQ that was 149 for ETH and for ES35 and you can see that for today's ranges we are past that and we still have a good hour and a half in ETH so we make go well past that especially if we keep exploring upwards so in other words it was a good ETH session if you like volatility you like ranges and you like to let your trades run okay back to the slideshow okay just I'm just gonna move through some of these and I'll come back to those later but this is really about context for the for the for the economic release in a few minutes so we still got that multi-month uptrend there it looks like it's now clearly being broken if we look at yesterday's settlement T plus one we're well under that trend line and if we look at NQ same scenario and if you also look at the daily in NQ you can see it's balancing here so it'll be interesting to see what happens when we break out of this balance zone okay on the 15 minute on ES is this just ready to have a look at where we are in yesterday's range we smashed down underneath yesterday's low in Asia and then we yeah we went further still in Europe and then after the German open and into the London open we bounced very strongly so we move on to NQ same scenario yeah it's quite the if you're a price action trader this is quite helpful yeah you've got a nice wide or long rather balanced zone before it does break down so when you see that the probability is that it will continue and we can look at the profile but we probably don't have an awful lot of time to do that now but we will instead look at book map and you can see that it then did so you know if you've managed to get in you know either at the top area top part of this balance or this balance down here there was a significant move down but by the same token if you've been looking for longs since the London open in NQ that London open there is 3 a.m. Eastern you can see it's been a good ramp up this is the weekly stock heat map for all US companies on trading view and you can see that there's some green that's beginning to appear over the course of the week okay let us get back to the display capture just checking to see if there are any comments and not that I can see so actually if I just quickly show you one of the images that I did save here which was that's right is this okay I think I've got two of these images yes I do and we can go back in time and have a look at them over the last couple of weeks when we've been talking about supply and demand type type trades and I've really categorized them into two distinct halves those testing a previous supplier or demand zone or those breaking one and then the breakout being rejected decisively this trade really falls into the latter category in Wycoff terms that's a spring it's also known as a swing failure pattern of breakout failure etc category C on the original diagram that I did a few weeks ago and what I said what I said I think twice now in the last couple of weeks is this is one of the best examples and this is an example of how book map can or may provide a tremendous amount of extra value when you're trading that type of setup so what we're talking about here is that you've got a good swing point you've got a balance zone just breaks through it and you've got a heavy liquidity barrier underneath this is ES obviously if you look at the price column underneath we've got the market pulse volume pressure imbalance but but the important thing to note is that we broke that we broke it through some liquidity and that we had a bank of liquidity below and we also had yesterday's low which I've marked in yellow here as a key recovery point so I'm just saying that you know if you'd managed to get in a trade that was the first target and then you know it's been off to the races since and the the next slide is just this exactly the same but zoomed in and just to adjust zoomed in vertically and horizontally on the time axis so you can see this trade yeah you've got a few things that can help you in terms of your trigger if you're a price action trader you know the fact that we've just had a one or two tick break of the previous swing low it and then a rejection that that would be enough for price action traders for bookmap type price action traders you've got this MBO type stop into liquidity just below this swing point and you've got this bank of liquidity and also yeah I've marked over here on the right hand side the Delta tail something that I've been talking about it applies more to NQ because NQ is such a thin beast but here you have ES with a really not really nice tail and so by tail I just mean you've got sellers all the way down and you've got this big fat sell up here as as a target to aim at which is also the HVN for this part of the chart and you know the final point I noted here on this chart was that the the volume traded at the absolute low this is the unbreakout failure was only 14 contracts so that would constitute just just about as a rollover you know a really really good rollover is single digits but this is almost single digits and nothing is perfect in the trading world and yeah soon we all realize that and we just accept probabilities and accept where we're wrong and that we can't predict the future the better off you know all of our trading becomes so I just want to do that let's get back on to the chart I'm aware that I'm speaking quickly because I know the clock is ticking on this on this release in three minutes time now I think you've got three minutes and ten seconds so let us zoom right in and have a quick look at this yeah this is something that we've talked about as well which is when we approach we haven't quite approached yet a resting liquidity level on the first approach and this one didn't quite get there's about two or three ticks away it often does not get there often turns around here we got to within two ticks I think that is we zoom right into this one yeah we got to within two ticks and then we turned around and the turn around is normally tradable sorry I won't use the word normally that is misleading and I don't provide any financial advice and neither does book map I mean that it may be tradable in the sense that shall we get the pen going let's have a look so you've got you've got this you've got this structure here right the first thing you're going to note about that little swing high there is that it is a category C swing failure pattern upthrust you name it it's just goes at one tick above the previous two swing highs and then turn turns around so it is the category C type type supply and demand set up that we've been talking about and you've also got this liquidity barrier there so this is like a reverse of what we were looking at a couple of minutes ago I'm just aware of the time so I'm just saying that one of the good things about this and this is why I drew this is that with that barrier being there you can have a very very tight stop so if you get in say around about here which would be about the four to seven four level maybe four to seven three seventy five you've got a nice tight stop of about one to half points or six ticks which is pretty darned amazing and if you're going at four to seven three seventy five it did get down to over three points so you got to are out of that if you had managed you know if you'd managed it through luck or whatever or through you know skillful trade management whatever you want to call it to our was available on that trade let's get rid of that and let us focus on this for the news so I'm going to turn on my financial juice feed I know that folks on YouTube will be able to hear this I haven't got the discord plug-in so you don't get the audio from my computer when we have these news releases I am friends with the guys at financial juice so I don't believe they mind me having it on during this release okay so we are down to 24 seconds yeah I mean maybe after we've we've seen the release we've seen the price action so yeah you know what would not be surprising is we have a little push down and then we take that out alternatively they may go straight up let us have a look you can see that some of this liquidity has been lightened into the release you see how the orange becomes the yellow becomes blue and the red becomes the yellow here we go straight up 89 K 89 K lower than the forecast of 150 K okay you may have heard that if not I'll just repeat it the actual release was lower than forecast in terms of employment change so bad news is good news and you can see that bad news there resulted us in us taking out the entire resting liquidity that was there just looking at my very short-term charts as well and yeah the candles on those 10 or 15 second bars are enormous in fact if we move this one down to one minute yeah you can see basically the same thing on on trading view that was a good ramp up straight through through the resting liquidity at the news release you know one thing we could mark we wanted to is that the scene of the crime really is around about here or here and about there so it'll be interesting to see if we do get some form of pullback back to that zone rid of that let's just zoom right in into the 30 second kind of time slice so you've still got plenty of liquidity there you've got another interesting piece of liquidity resting liquidity 218 at 4204 you know whenever you've got them at unusual numbers and it may not be an unusual number in the sense that it doesn't have any correlation with anything else it may well do may it may relate directly to an SPX options level on SPY options level so I'm just saying unusual in the sense that it's not a round number in ES in other words it's not at 4300 or 4250 whenever it does that and the resting liquidity volume is relatively high and you can look down this current current orders book column and you can see that that 218 is significantly higher than anything else that we've got on the screen so that's what peaks my interest then you know one of the things I'm going to do is start scrolling back and seeing if that was there all day and it was so that that was there also for the entirety of the Asian session so it was a marker that they placed and you know being as as cunning as they can be and remember you know they want to take price from high to low and from low to high in as efficient a manner as possible and that means they need fuel so that you know they would have got long right down at the lows you know when we were way below yesterday's globe X low and they may still be in this trade other what they may just have got a few points out of it but they will do things that are not easy to see and they'll often move them in other instruments so you're not entirely sure of the hedging confluence correlation etc so I'm just zooming in vertically so we can see all the price levels and yeah we had that scene of the crime back down here under the resting liquidate under that original resting liquidity at 4275 so anything back on the 4275 would be like a quick check of it unless of course we use this liquidity as an entire barrier and go all the way down I'm just reading the discord comments bellion's got a comment he started to track the 10 day session average range for globe X a little over a month since yeah yeah yeah we're going to be different bellion you're going to have a different data source and here we are by the way we are just going back and doing that that check of the scene of the crime so that wasn't entirely unexpected you had that bank of liquidity above and the most likely place it was going to go to was this which was the scene of the crime now you've got some supporting liquidity here so it'll be interesting to see if it can crash through this or not and just looking at the profile as well you know you've you've got a semi profile wouldn't say this is a very accurate profile from trading view but you've got yeah they might they might fill the gap all the way down to there as an example of what they might do in nasdaq and they have just done that in in an ES on this shot so that's often something that profile traders look at you know it's it's like a single very very thin ledge or you have a ledge at the top of the balancing profile and a breakout and then you know if they if they're still hungry they will often just you know go continue on from this point once they fill that thin gap but since this is an economic release one thing that you you know you may need to bear in mind is that you know the true auctioning may be interrupted so that the normal price action auctioning that was taking place prior to the 815 release may be suspended while we have all this volatile action and it may continue a little bit later so so far all they've done is come down to the scene of the crime if we flick across to enqueue again the um liquidity is just these algo bands it has cleaned up a little bit in the last few days but it's not very helpful the resting liquidity in edh i mean if i zoom all the way down now you've got that random but fourteen eight hundred which i tend to disregard regardless of whether we go through or not when i see little levels like this then i pay attention so i'll look at that one down at fourteen excuse me fourteen six nine zero um of forty one yeah why did i pay attention to that apart from the fact that it is slightly brighter than some of the other levels around it um it's above thirty from what i've seen in eth and you know we're towards the end of this eth session whenever you've got a resting liquidity that has been there for some time and this one has not let me just point that out it's generally just come in um but over thirty and this one is a fair bit over thirty forty you know it may have some information that um you know that could become relevant later or may become apparent later as to why they did it so yeah if we have a look at the e-s action so far it was just uh a pullback to the scene of the crime and they're going back up towards this resting liquidity which if we zoom out a bit it's much clearer to see so i'm zooming out vertically you can see that little band around the seventy nine fifty at eighty level and also the eighty four eighty five level you see those two um and this line in the sand which is the uh the scene of the crime so it will be interesting to note again um you know as i said last week when you do get a trend day trend days have a lot of confluence with major economic release or correlation rather with a major economic release as being in the pre-market ie around about the eight fifteen eight thirty a.m. eastern so quite often on those days you know assuming it was a trend day and who knows what it will be because we cannot predict the future as i said the other day they often form the extreme for the next few hours um within the first fifteen minutes of the release and here within you know within five minutes of the release they've they've formed this value here a low swing point at four two seven three so that would be interesting to see whether that gets breached and whether that theory for today potentially being a trend day um yeah maybe thrown out the window or not but at the moment that is a level that i would mark um i may even do that in so yeah so it will actually appear here so if i just um it's about the four two seven three so if i mark that it should magically appear in this column the cln the cloud notes um yeah so so for the programmers amongst you out there it is really really easy to you know to program your own um interface with this cloud notes column so all i've simply done and you may know i did it in a second or so was to highlight something inside sierra and i'm now just waiting for this to appear in in book map one of the things that tom and i have requested is that this um this refresh of the cloud notes column happens every few seconds at the moment it can take up to a minute and you can see that it did appear just about there took about 50 seconds i'd say and so that is is a line in the sand yeah for me you know should they be an initial drive up to this liquidity and the fact that we're coming down strongly towards it makes me wonder whether this is going to hold this time okay 824 i'm just going to have a sip of tea and i will read any more questions or comments that are around okay zoom right in and have a look at this action as we come into this level here so we've got this at four two seven three i'm not thinking it will hold this time i'm also looking at the tail i'm looking at the fact that it's a little bit of fat delta there but we have a roll over in the sense that so far we've only got five traded at this little low or double low here yeah so if we talk about micro structure they formed a low here so far they cannot get back to it and that that's quite bullish and that is the bullishness is doubled up by the arresting liquidity still acting as a magnet being in eth above yep so the fact that we did not get there and i thought we might because it was a little double bottom yeah that's that's interesting to me and if we now you know if we zoom right in on this you can see you can see the profile as well on this so it does get quite skinny down the bottom so yeah so it is interesting it's just i've noticed that they've been pushing down with the liquidity here so that that thing is a book pressure war and i'm looking through my book pressure tool that i built in seara and seeing a bit of pressure being applied so you know i have i have a numerical tool which also draws something for me in seara that really reflects what you are seeing with the colors yeah within these within the the nearest levels you know forget exactly how many levels i calculated it off in seara but you but basically it represents what you can see on the screen now and it's you know are they adding or subtracting to the brightness of those colors which is done by adding or subtracting to the order book values that are there so if we zoom right in on this and let's just have a look see what they're hitting with so at this level there it was only three previously it was only five so they're not hitting it with tremendous force below but that hasn't stopped me thinking that you know that they might want to shake out some people just blow here then they put in some liquidity at this scene of the crime as well all right i think we can just watch this again for three you know three more minutes and then i'll move on to some other topics yep and it's taken it out so far by one tick are we going to fully explore the scene of the crime yeah as i often mentioned i normally have both of these side by side the nq and the es and i find it easier to read when i've got both of them together so you know if i've seen some nice action like that in nq you know it may have given me a different interpretation of what i was seeing in es but you can see here with the delta dots you know there's quite active selling in nq you've got quite a large trade of 573 at the low but bear in mind that is a delta dot now we're getting some extra volatility as we approach half past eight in nq back to es all right so yeah by flicking through and again this is the problem of not having the both side by side we missed something which was a beautiful little stop run so you've got you've got this scene of the crime around about here you've got some people that may well have had stops there and you've got a 400 mbo just below so that will now be interesting to see whether that can hold and it can give us the fuel to drive back up towards the resting liquidity um yeah i thought they were going down to something i thought that it was going to be something close to this resting liquidity that they'd put in beforehand there you can see that resting liquidity been there well before the news now an hour and a half but then but i've got this little plunge here and you can see that it did not trade or maybe it did it's hard to tell with delta dot that's why i don't tend to use them all the time and we can just switch them so we can see whether they did trade there so if we switch those to total volume yeah they did trade all the way down that's interesting sometimes with those delta dots you can't see all the prices at which you know there are bubbles i which they traded and i've also got this minimal volume display as well but for the purposes of this i will stick with volume deltas since it seems to be more popular with people so you've got a nice tail now um a nice little red tail in es you've got some liquidity above you've got that bank of liquidity they moved it down now they're moving it back up and we're driving back up towards it and i'm seeing book pressure you know begin to get positive in es so it looks like this soft run was really really quite useful um yeah so if you were trading it and you know you might have taken this here the swing just before let's look at the time 815 yeah just before 815 814 55 and said this little line there was essentially a swing point because of the news and then this was a test right down to it and through it so that was again another category c type um supply demand and then you know you had a stop run you know how would you've got in you know you have a you have a couple of clear points where you may have put a stop either just below the extreme of um of the of the news swing point or just below this uh resting liquidity you know the two places again you cannot know what they're going to do so in some sense is the stop does not matter as much as your acceptance of that stop and that's one of the things that you know i'm telling myself as much as everybody you know who might be listening on this webinar it is a probability game it's a maths game and we'll go into that when we you know go on to the education ideas section in a little while just because this is a major red news item i just wanted to stay on this for a little bit longer and it's also interesting watching the way that they've come back to this this um scene of the crime and they keep coming back to it which does suggest that they're going to get very close to this four two seventy they've now taken some of that liquidity and moved it down yeah we're we're surmising because of the way that the the colors changed there let's have a look to see how much was traded this time around even though those are delta dots uh the volume numbers here and here are correct and also the market pulse which is here based on volume the volume pressure imbalance that is correctly based off volume so that is regardless of the fact that you may have chosen to view um delta type bubbles instead of volume type bubbles if we had something more akin to a triple bottom or even you know even a quadruple bottom i if you had one level maybe i should draw it again so if you had something akin to that which was one two three four five touches and this is not because some of these these swing points are way way off it that would strongly suggest to me is uh on the basis of this that they want to get down to that four two seventy unfortunately that is not a quadruple bottom i mean you know the old saying you know again like everything in trading it's a double edged sword but the more times you bash at the wall or the bricks are going to give a through give way eventually and you're going to get through there so let's just zoom in again the other thing to note is that yes es is not my favorite instrument in in the eth session i do prefer the nq but around these very very volatile news releases es is often a better instrument in terms of controlling the risk that you're taking you know if we look at the nq chart for example we're probably going to miss the action again you really can see um you know quite large ranges and now we've had this big drive up and they're going towards some liquidity above yep so this this whole region is now in play again so you've got a triple one two three top now a quadruple top so you'd think you know either on this touch or the next touch they're going to break through this at least for a check a price check above it to see whether there's any interest in auctioning right through or up to the next major area of that resting liquidity above yeah i think if you'd have had both es and nq open at the same time it would have been easier to read this um you know to read this one as another category c type breakout for breakout failure and then to move back up towards this resting liquidity yeah and again when you've got your own screens and you're in charge of your own screens and not looking at this one small screen that i've got here displayed next to the trading view charts yeah that that it would be something that i would suggest and that's something that i do which is i have them side by side um and we can we can do that but i've got something else i wanted to show a little bit later anyway we're at 2035 so let's move on to some other other ideas so we've done some live order analysis um we've seen you know price be bullish on that news release even though it was bad news and we've seen price check it so we check the scene of the the crime effectively one two three times and so far we are bouncing so at the moment that scene of the crime is holding right let's move on okay i think the slide that i wanted to show yeah this one okay um it's just another source of great information okay you're not going to find meat in these webinars these breakfast webinars talking too much about economics right but occasionally i'm going to point you towards information and all the information i tend to point you towards it is going to be free and this is one example so fred is part of the US federal government yeah i'm sure loads of people here already know about it but my point here is that this is a spread between the two-year and ten-year yields and even though it went inverted that's in below zero we have basically reversed hard since july that's 2023-07 and and yeah we are steepening so this yield curve is steepening all right um again i'm not here to provide any economics lesson or not it's just something that there are two things that are a takeaway in that which is the NASDAQ does pay a strong amount of attention to certainly short-term money lending i.e the two-year rate maybe even shorter rate and the market as a whole looks at these spreads an awful lot so my take is that it is wise you know regardless of whether you're an intraday scalper and you only trade from second to second minute to minute to do your homework and check these occasionally and see how you know how these yields and these spreads are changing and bear in mind that there are many many many professional traders you know often with much much deeper pockets than you or me and in terms of our trading of ESNNQ that do not trade the ESNNQ that they will only trade these yield type instruments or spread type instruments so you know if we ignore that from our analysis of what might may happen in eth it's at our own peril um okay i think we've done the slides of death today okay all right okay we've got ES back i'm about to move on to the other ideas in education section but i'm just having a look at this so you know if we zoom out of this and we you know we get the the heat map looking so basically we had a bullish move up scene of crime check and back to the resting liquidity which remained a magnet we had some more semi-resting liquidity in the fact that was it there for about an hour or so to drag us down towards that scene of crime and from there they got some fuel which you can see in this big fat tail the red tail in ES and that has helped them drive to the resting liquidity above and in NQ we've had you know good resting liquidity above at 14800 and you've got some more up at even higher 56 up at 14845 so you know one thing that you know we have to be aware you know we've talked a little bit about statistical analysis and ranges and being larger than the average over the last 10 trading days we also have to remember that price can go much further than any statistical averages so that if you get some resting liquidity here in NQ of 56 at 1485 and if we drag this all the way back down to the you know you you've got some rare resting liquidity way down there at 14655 but you know feel free to explore where all that resting liquidity is price does not move in straight lines and and we should never be surprised if they chop chop chop chop and you know let's have a look at Monday's action in RTH as a good as a good reminder of that so if we get Monday and it's this crazy crazy crazy chop and then big plunge down I think we had a crazy plunge up then I plunge down later they will chop around so many times until they've got the fuel in all the right places for them to drive it as far as they want it to go and they're often trading in all these other types of instruments so that you know some of the things that we see in our charts in our book map you know we have to also be aware of what they are trying to do and the fact that they're going to make it as hard as possible and the most important thing from that is that we accept our stops because if we accept our stops you know when price was crazily choppy then you know we still have adequate assets to use in our casino risk bank but when the action becomes much smoother you know I'm talking here about the RTH action but it can apply equally to ETH okay right yeah it's been quite lovely bullish action all the way through I also feel strange speaking without a headset so if anybody missed the beginning of this this is the first of these webinars I've done without a headset and I'm standing up so I'm wandering around a little bit and there's quite a sense of freedom yeah that's something else that you know if you do ever get a sit stand desk and you have a couple of monitors and you have a couple of charts it does in my view pay to get up and look at your charts or your monitors from different angles and to get up and walk away as well because you can often see something that was staring you in the face but that you through a tunnel vision because you were so determined to massage the market into what you wanted it to do that you don't see it so yeah yeah there's quite a great benefit in doing that anyway something else that I wanted to talk about today which really is about psychology so let me use the old whiteboard here where's the whiteboard there we go right and I may yeah I'll just do that right okay I'm just going to put that out there and we'll go back to the charts in a second and there are a couple questions on YouTube I'm going to qualify that in a second obviously but that's just out there it's a controversial statement and it's just one that I'm going to make let me get out of the and I'll get rid of that as well I'm going to clarify what I mean by that in a second but I just noted that there are a couple of comments in in YouTube and I'm just going to blow them up so I can read them Paz was asking what I think about the upside in the European session I think it's great I think we you know we cherish volatility and if you look at where they actually turned it around and the time they turned it around that was absolutely beautiful for the European traders and your question Paz it is right into the European session you couldn't have had any better bullish action for you I mean like if we where is that tpo again yeah where's the tpo again here it is right so we've got yesterday's rth low they break it way down and let's put these in the realm blocks and that time there was you know I mean it came down towards the London opening then it then it just zoomed higher you look at the potential reset that you look at the potential you know after if you look at the the bookmap action and I did show it in those images of the break the breakdown failure there but you look at where that value was yesterday and the fact you know I said that this at the very beginning of this webinar that I marked this yellow zone right at the beginning of the at the Asian session there and the reason I did that was the reason that I said on Friday I like to look at the entirety of value from the from the rth session sometimes I have to separate these out into time blocks to see when that value occurred and here if you look at this you know this is the afternoon value the afternoon value is always more pertinent in the following eth session than the morning value from the rth so you know if I've been saying that it's quite common for them to you know traverse the value you know explore beyond it to see if there is any more price auction activity down there to come back and retag this t plus one level because that is where there's an inventory imbalance and times that they tend to do that you know there are there are several opens in the eth there's the Japan sorry back track this there's the there's the new york 1800 open which I don't recall a proper open but it is an open in the sense the market was closed for a little bit but it's not a a market that's open the japan one is the china one is there's a there's an Asian lunchtime thing which is where this first turned around and then you've got the german open and the london open so you've got quite a few opens so the fact that they may have tested out the inventory imbalance at this t plus one settlement at one of those opens doesn't mean or doesn't preclude them doing it again at another one you know and the ones that I look at the most mean maybe it's because of my time zone or maybe it's because of what I've seen in terms of price action and real volatility of ranges the two that I look at the most are the the german open and the london open so you know you you have this went all the way down there and you know you've also got a lot of people you know you've got some you've got some smart people out there i'm not talking about me i'm talking about smarter much smarter people than me putting out some interesting thoughts that you know we were due for a really really big squeeze whenever I read that kind of thing it's not you know it's not an incentive for me to go long straight way saying oh my god we're going to squeeze all these shorts from yesterday and go straight up because that's not what tends to happen you know they always always go further than you expect or not i wouldn't say always but more often than not they will go further than you expect so you know you might have expected them to go just beyond yesterday's value and just take this one out but they went a long way further so you know there would have been people there would have been trying for a swing long just around here and they might have been killed you know there may have been some people that were lucky enough to get around here and they'd be you know making their entire month's money if they were still holding right now um but yeah that's what i thought i think there's another question as well would i consider uh this is the last comment trader jeer or trader j a jbr sorry would you consider enqueue a more liquid more liquid instrument than the s this morning trying to learn or to read liquidity no it's never more liquid i mean i'll get rid of this um yeah whenever you're talking about liquidity you know you're really talking about this column here um i can tell you that of the nearest the nearest 10 price levels in es and enqueue and i have this as a statistic it's very easy to calculate you know live in whatever charting platform you've got but i've got a statistic that the current liquidity level in es is 60 ish and the one for enqueue is seven so it's basically nine times as liquid the es is nine times as liquid the enqueue is never or well i've never seen it um more liquid than the the es or liquidity we're just talking about the orders sitting in the book um you know we're not talking about the colors in the heat map the colors in the heat map are just reflecting the visible range you know what is you know where are the the most orders in this vision visible range so those colors will change yeah as we we zoom in and out if we zoomed right in you can see how you know you've got this yellow and orange band but if you zoom right out you got a lovely orange price level here at four two seven six fifty um but no no es is much more liquid it's a thicker instrument much more heavily traded a lot of professional traders in there uh and they trade with size and one of the reasons why they choose es rather than enqueue is because they can size up you know um quite often in in enqueue you'll get a stop run where you know it might be an eight point stop or whatever they say 40 ticks and a lot of those 40 tick range there will not be trades at individual price levels so in other words they have to sweep through um several price levels to fill all their contracts of that of that sweep stop um that is not the case with es normally so it's easier for um big money to get in and out and that is a big consideration for them you know when they choose the the type of instrument that they have okay so the moment you know it's still great it's it's essentially got back to the end of the crime and it's grinding up towards this liquidity above and in enqueue yeah beginning to light up these levels at 40 and 45 but you've got this thick liquidity you've got the algo bands and then you got some thick liquidity um it's hard to tell with enqueue because of these algo bands have been terrible in the december contract um but you have a thick liquidity at the the ran number and that's currently holding price with a double top okay so yeah what do you know what did i mean by my statement that there's an awful lot of money to be made in psychology right i've spent money um i'm always happy to admit there are i've spent money on trading education and some of that is not very good education it's it's telling you a lot of what you should or maybe should have been able to work out for yourself right um you know one of the people you know if we start talking about psychology one of the people i think has helped me the most in terms of understanding you know what is trading and what is psychology as in just psychology rather than pure trading psychology is tom dunty and and his tweets on twitter are all free for people to see and he i think he sells the odd thing which is again really really cheap in terms of some of the webinars that he's done in his life but um i'm not trying to sell anything for him what i'm i'm trying to say is that you know he's done a lot of psychology and he's he's traded professionally for a very long time and one of the conclusions that he drew about all of this was that psychology on its own does not give you any edge um right and what instead gives you edge is a trading plan setting out a process for setups that have a positive expectancy is something that you know we've hammered home in in this channel time and time again and a positive expectancy is a statistical series of trades where uh you know where your r value on the umpteenth trade at the end of your statistics is above zero so in other words uh the best way or one of the best ways to achieve that is by having the same dollar value risk every time that you lose uh and giving yourself the opportunity to make more money than you lose on trades where you are a winner so that even if you only had a win rate of just above 50 percent you can do very handsomely uh and have a very positive expectancy right um and one of the yeah this was something that i was going to draw and go through on this one and this is just completely rough and this is just this is just a debating flow chart it's not filled in or anything it was really to contrast psychology from trading plans and again i'm re-itering some of the one of the things that that tom has said probably in tweets as much as anything else that if you have a detailed trading plan that covers every single type of contingency that you encounter you know it could be page and page and page and it does not need to be looked at every single day but you've gone through the process of writing it um sorry there's a question there what was the trader you like his psychology notes tom tom danta d a n t e he's from london um is english so if you've heard him speak he's got a london accent um yeah uh if you've addressed all of those contingencies so you know this this is an example of a starting flow chart and again i've done this in obsidian because it's a free piece of software and i use it i use it for my journaling i use it for flow charting but you know this kind of flow chart you can write with text and then it draws it draws all the flow boxes for you that's why i'm just saying that some of this kind of thing is really helpful and then you can start you know you can start dragging the boxes around yourself afterwards um and adding more boxes etc um if you start drawing this and you write through all your contingencies of what may happen you know and i did one here i said you know we're talking about um these these breakout failures these swing these these springs these up thrusts these swing failure patterns right if you if you write down and it doesn't have to be totally exhaustive but it just has to be exhaustive in um basically covering most of the things that you see um then you know you've got something to refer to that can keep you calm because psychology um you know i've read quite a few books on this topic and i've you know i've done a few of these webinars you know a lot of the trading psychology per se comes down to um yeah comes down to about two things or i'd say three things it comes down to being aware of yourself so knowing yourself uh you know knowing what your trigger points are i'm not talking about your setup triggers i'm not talking about you know what sets you off you know you know if somebody's said something to you and that drives you mad and then you act and you know in some irrational manner you know those kind of trigger points um uh to um the other thing the other two things i'd say were being able to know yourself to control yourself so this is slightly different so that you know i mean one of these relates directly to what people people go on about meditation mindfulness this is basically how you can focus yourself um i think a really good analogy of this is uh olympic shooters um yeah they control their heartbeat and they can slow it down to 40 beats a second so that they can take a shot between heartbeats right and that's knowing yourself and and how you can control your your mindfulness to to an extent that you can stay on top of your decision making that is following all the contingencies that you've written out in a process flow chart visual strategy whatever you want to call it inside your trading plan and the third thing which again all these three things are directly interlinked is um being present in the here and now i are you thinking of something that happened an hour ago i'm not talking about your your chart patterns you know you're not talking about something that's you know we look across here i'm not talking about um a swing low there i'm talking about are you thinking about something that happened in your life yesterday an hour ago um two years ago whenever i'm talking about are you here in the present moment so if you take that with the previous example of can you control yourself through your heartbeat your breathing whatever so you are here in the present moment that is going to immensely help you execute execute a trading plan where you've got detailed processes that cover different types of contingencies that you can follow uh and you know after you've gone through those three things and you can get on top of those things and then you can better execute a trading plan and remember that trading plan itself must have setups which do have edge and and the edge can be both the setups and the way that you actually have a process to execute them uh you know we've been talking about you know those category c type supply and demands yeah um they do have edge i mean we we've um we've uh no i think i've shown you umpteen examples i can show you examples where they fail as well and that is the whole point as well that they are going to fail and you are going to get stopped out but if you put them together into a plan in the process then you know you've got a chance of having something with an edge and you put things together like you could get to see with bookmap um you know you have elements all together that they're into your process that cover these things and here you've got this flow chart so you've got this spring up through category c type supply and demand you've got a swing point it breaks past the swing point and i've just written down one contingency here you know so that you you're aware of it when you when you write a set like this for yourself and it's that it bounces beyond that so if we draw that you know um so you've got a swing point here so it's a high and we go up above it right and then we see this type of action so it's basically in this little box up here right um the probability is you know it can go down but the probability is it's going to go up you know it's going to be a continuation if it's bouncing it's not rejecting that so it's not falling within the truest definition of a breakout failure so you cover that as one of your scenarios there could be about 50 different scenarios here there could be about five there could be 10 who knows it's your setup i'm just talking about something that's relatively generic but you have to make it your own uh and that is what this is about uh and in my view you know it's it's more important than you know than every psychology book out there uh it is a plan it's a business and it's about executing you know your business according to the processes that you set up for your business because if you don't treat it as a business with processes that have to be followed strictly and that's why a lot of these you know these very successful companies have SOPs and i'm not talking about bureaucracy i'm talking about standard operating procedures that are actually useful um yeah in a small one or two person enterprise like your trading business you may trade on your own you may trade with partners etc that statement of operating procedure is absolutely critical to you um you know executing your setups correctly and giving yourself half a chance in this crazy market right that was uh that was my two cents on that topic maybe it's something i i probably won't need to cover again um let me just see if there are any more questions there's another question on youtube um a lois center i've not watched enki for a while but this algor band is horrible yes i agree with you and it's been there for two weeks you cannot see the real levels because of this in the past i saw three bands just doing a roll over but it seems they're always there it has been there since the december enki futures contract became the dominant futures contract who knows we're going to have this until christmas i don't um we can't predict the future but it is horrible um and the way you use bookmap in enki to see those resting levels has to take that into account so you have to really go um you know you have to look a little bit harder to find them you know you can still see those you know there might well be like a resting liquidity of 60 that was been there since six o'clock um yesterday evening new york time but it's hidden a bit by that by the um the algor bands dominating the heat map so you just have to put in a little bit more work to see them but you know the the same analysis still applies it's just harder to see and we've just got to hope that they will ditch those bands at some stage and i think i pointed out that in crude futures they had those bands for a very very very long time um but we shall see anyway it has come up to an hour i hope that some of this was um some of this information was useful entertaining uh or somewhere in between and thank you very much for watching um have a good trading session ahead and i'll sign off