Hello and welcome to NewsClicks show mapping fault lines. In today's show we're going to be talking about a number of developments which have been taking place in various fault lines across the world. First major issue that has happened is the recent US airstrikes on Syria and Iraq. This happened a few days ago. This is the second such round of strikes since Joe Biden assumed office as the president of the United States. A lot of criticism after these airstrikes because the Democrats many organizations in the past had you know he said severely criticized such steps when Trump was in power and Biden came to power saying that you know he would avoid he would bring an end to many of these forever wars but nonetheless airstrikes continuing. So we have with us Prabir Prakash how to talk about this. Of course we know that the strikes were on Syria and Iraq but they were targeted at the militia groups which are part of the popular mobilization front which are part of the Iraqi army and there are strong links between them and the Iranians. So clearly this was not about striking at Syria but a larger geopolitical place so to speak by the United States and this is happening like we discussed last time even as talks are on in Vienna to see if the US can re-enter the deal. So amid this how do we see an attack on these militia groups which are very closely associated with both Iraq and Iran. Well officially they're part of the Iraqi armed forces so you know to say they are close to both actually doesn't bring out the technical nature of the picture here and that's the what is the international law on this. The second is if the strikes took place either in Syria or in Iraq and it seems to have taken place in both places they did not take into account the fact they need the permission of these countries otherwise it's a really an act of war. The third is the Iraqi prime minister was just a few days back with the PMF the militia forces that we're talking about and talked about how they're a part of the Iraqi armed forces and what is the role they have played in fighting against the Al Qaeda ISIS forces. So all of this is also a complete negation of the United States position that they are somehow there by invitation of the Iraqi government which they were once upon a time and this therefore has the sanction of their invitation. The question is it is an independent country they're no longer an occupying power even according to them therefore if they want to carry out military action they need the permission of the Iraqi government which they obviously did not have. The second part of this is that this is against whom essentially to send the signal apparently to the Iranians. Now the Iranians do not control these militias they may have relationship with them they have militarily had close links with them and training them all of that is true because it's true that the Iranian forces fought with the militias with the Iraqi government forces in order to fight back the Al Qaeda forces ISIS forces in Iraq so that's a part of the history and Soleimani was the one who also spearheaded that battle. So given that the argument that this is an attack somehow on Iranian backed militias falls really flat and that's really not the issue. So the question is what is the United States doing? At the moment it seems that Biden is playing by the same playbook that Trump used which is withdraw from the accord and then pressurize Iran to give more and more concessions hoping that at some point Iran would succumb. Now in this case there is a negotiations going on right now in order for the United States to re-enter the JCPOA the Iran nuclear agreement. Now in that are these essentially ploys are they just moves that the US is doing to wind up pressure in Iran? Of course it hurts Iraqis as well as well as Syria but is that the game plan? Is it something to do with what they want to achieve in Syria itself? Which as you know they have backed the Kurdish forces to the north they've also have al-Danaf a small enclave where they're essentially sheltering the remnants of the those forces who fought against Bashar al-Assad's government and of course you're also Turkey in the play. So what is the United States game plan and Syria is also not clear because there is no end objective that we can see coming out of the US intervention except to keep some parts of Syria under occupation with the actual American forces also being there. They're still there in occupation in some parts of Syria and close to the part since they have bombed. So all of this makes the US objective not clear whether it is Iraq Syria or it is Iran. If it is to pressure as Iran then I think they are again going the wrong way. Blinken seems to have also talked about how this nuclear agreement re-entering the JCPOA will continue into missile discussions trying to disarm Iran's missile forces that they have the capabilities they have and also there is also talk about how to get Iran to disengage that's the kind of words that we see from the larger west Asian involvement. Now that means giving up all the foreign policy in you know engagements Iran has in west Asia with Syria with 11 Hezbollah in Lebanon with the Houthis in Yemen essentially therefore to succumb to the United States pressure. So in some sense it seems to be an extension of the Trump line that if you want to re-enter the economic agreements that you earlier had reached you have to surrender both your military prowess or your ability to provide a strategic alternative in the region and you have to also forego all the influence that you have received. So essentially accept defeat without a war and that's an unlikely position with the Riyasi even coming into the president's position in Iran but even without that even under Rouhani this would not have been something which would have been acceptable. So I think what the United States is trying to achieve to negotiations something they have failed through the sanctions and that's a very very unlikely position today. So I don't really understand what this signifies except that it has destabilized Iraq a little more and it has not solved any of the issues of the region and it seems to make the JCPOA return to the JCPOA in the United States coming back a little more difficult and therefore we might see again a strasheting up of sanctions and of course Iran responding with what they're already doing which is gradually abandoning the agreement because they feel that it's not getting them anywhere the US is not returning and the European Union powers, European powers were a part of the agreement are unwilling to do anything in order to lift the sanctions. So this is going to come to a make or break soon and whether in the next three months we'll see a return to JCPOA or we'll see its formal abandonment that's what we'll have to see. Right although it's interesting that the US is getting more entangled in West Asia at a time when the prevailing consensus has been that it is trying to move more towards countering Russia and China and creating some kind and you know it's launched some sort of a new Cold War so to speak many observers have pointed that out so on the one hand the US is trying to Very interesting point that you're raising that Trump also made exactly the same promises if you remember except of course with drawing from the Iran accord the nuclear accord but his promise is bringing back the troops everything was very similar and then he got sucked into the forever wars that the United States has launched in the region including Afghanistan we'll have to see where they lead from here. Right Pramit so as you said so what we're looking at is a very dangerous scenario where the nuclear deal itself is under threat either party might walk out in the next few months for different reasons like you pointed out but returning to the issue I just raised in terms of the new Cold War sort of building up between the US on one hand and Russia and China or rather the US actions precipitating this we saw another example a few a few days ago when a British ship entered into the waters of Crimea and according to the British it was a freedom of navigation operation which is seems to be the common excuse used by the US and its allies across the world and of course the Russians had to take some steps they they did not of course engage the ship directly in any way but they did fire some warning shots the British of course claiming that this was all innocent and it was you know at some level they were of course reasserting their freedom of navigation but how do we see this kind of a provocation at a time when things are already extremely tense everyone knows what the situation in the region is in the Black Sea region of course so how do we see this kind of a provocation at this point of time you know the UK warship going into the waters which is where the issue really rises and what that means in terms of international law law of cease we can examine but the bigger picture is that the Black Sea has now become an area where you have also the NATO naval maneuvers that are slated are going on so you are already seeing NATO forces naval forces moving into Black Sea now are they going to as a formation test the what the Russians have said about Crimea and the limits they have put on it what is called right of innocent passage now in territorial waters that's really the issue here so that is something that we'll have to see the backdrop really is the fact that the Black Sea is increasingly becoming something of a theater of contention if we will if not a theater of war at the moment and the fact that there are these plans to move in navies of other countries NATO forces going there that means can this was this testing the waters in this case literally so that you know we know what they will know what the Russian response is likely to be you know but there are two things that are interesting over here when a warship passes close to a tenetry in this case Sevastopol is the Russian port over there which they have that's a warm water base for their Navy so when it does that it also maps the defense of the naval defenses because then you see the radar swing into action you see what is happening so these are territorial waters when you pass to the territorial waters which are contested in this particular way and I'll come to the legal part of it that's also simply to map out what are the defense forces that are there on the shore and what are the kind of radars that are there so that that exercise is why you have this passage as well because all of it gets that activated alerted so that's the information that you gather and that is why when you talk of innocent passage that you are not going to do this is something that then is what is being asked of that you will not do a certain set of measures which can lead to this information which is essentially a spying action so it's an intelligence operation under the guise of innocent passage so that is the other part of it that innocent passage this was not because the way it happened it was clearly they wanted to test the defenses that were there not in terms of war but in terms of finding out what these defenses are now here is the issue they have said that this is this territorial waters belongs to Ukraine and therefore they had taken permission of the ukrainian government therefore they had the right of innocent passage because ukraine has given them this right now the international law on this is quite clear that at the moment according to NATO according to uk according to all their allies this is the clear Crimea is occupied territory and if it is occupied territory this is the rebellious resolution they have moved in the united nations as well this is that what they're claiming from all pulpits if that is so then it's not the law of cease that operate then it is the law of war that operates because Russia is now an occupying power the question is can as an occupying power can Russia declare what are the zones within which they will not let warships come in and this is something which has been done by the United States for instance in Iraq there are enough instances of this of course if you take for instance what Israel does in Gaza there is of course a bigger issue over there are they conceiving themselves occupying power therefore not allowing ships to enter the territorial waters of Gaza are or they're blocking Gaza because they're a they consider it to be a state of war they have between themselves and Hamas Israel has never clarified this but all these blockades or territorial waters that you say you occupy the occupying power has legal rights over it follows from the fact that if you occupy the land the territorial waters are also considered under occupation and that is so either way whether Crimea belongs to Russia you recognize their in their what the citizens have been done to a referendum or not all you consider is as an occupying power either way the Russian authorities have the right to forbid in this case innocent passage of warships all passage of warships they can forbid of countries without taking their permission and as I said this by all means was not innocent passage so the both counts whether it's international law or whether the intent of the act was just passing some ships through some waters this doesn't qualify and we now have the famous map which BBC made public that there's a debate within the British government whether this should be done or not two routes were identified and the fact that the choice this route was in within they had some differences within the government finally they chose this route of course the story of this vital documents being found in a bus stop it I don't know how credible this information is because I don't think BBC would have aired this without taking permission from the government so it does see within the British government there were some differences on the risks in that would be taken by doing this but I think the larger issue really is that the United Kingdom is willing to test the waters as in this particular case of Crimea and also make the situation for Russia and European Union much tougher because as you know large sections of the European Union would like some kind of normalcy to return with Russia and United Kingdom of course being just a little bit of an island of the coast there they have no such stake in the larger duration economy of which the European Union is a part and they have been walked out of European Union makes it even more simple for them to say we are interested really in partnership with the United States we are interested in our financial services we offer to the world and therefore we really are not interested in the Eurasian landmass we are now a truly an Atlantic power and that's the Atlantic that they're looking to or across the Atlantic they're looking to for their lands so in this case it's quite possible UK is acting as a spoiler in the European Union's relationship with Russia and China which is still on the edge but still exists and economically it's still a growing of growing importance to the European Union. Thank you so much Pramil for talking to us that's all your time for today keep watching NewsClip.


The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. All now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER>. Larry Pezzavento. Okay, looking good, Billy Ray feeling good Lewis. Okay, this week we're gonna start off with Simon Lee today at 930. Tomorrow we'll have Shane Smollion. He wants to finish up his segment that we had on Friday. They were unable to finish and then also on Friday we're going to have Tim Boss, Financial Cycles Weekly out of Florida. Also will be our guests. So we have three guests coming this week, possibly one other, but haven't been able to reach him and we'll find out if we will just a little bit later. As you can see, I posted the charts for the DAX and the FTSEE. I both did the 15 minute and the four hour chart. You can see that we're trying to break out to the upside much like we're looking at here in the US market as we come in here this morning with more good news. The fact that the country is opening up and things will be just as good as ever as we see new highs coming as they're telling us on Bloomberg today. Okay, folks, let's take a quick look at one chart that I think is very important because it's in the news and I wanted to give it my two cents worth. And believe me, if you pay more than that, you've overpaid. Let's take a quick look here at the crude oil contract. Now this happens to be the June contract and the reason why I do that is because that's the one that brought us down to that level of $6. You can't really trade June and July anymore. The only thing you can do is trade August and not only that, but many firms won't even allow the trading. There's been a news announcement that came out of China. Mr. Z emailed me and then called me this morning about it. And that was the fact that the ICBC bank has taken such a big hit in this oil thing from the dude over in Singapore that they've disallowed trading in all of gasoline, crude oil, heating oil, they've disallowed all that and they also put in soybeans. And that's the one that is a little troubling to me. That might mean that, well, I don't think it means anything really, but the fact that they put in soybeans there because oil and soybeans are pretty much incompatible. You can't eat oil and soybeans is all protein, so that's gonna be an interesting one. Maybe Sa has some insight into that, but usually when the bank takes a big hit like that, they overreact and that's pretty much what we're looking at. They will get their money out of that, I'm sure, but when I don't know, we'll have to do it. One of the questions that one of our listeners emailed me over the weekend is very interesting one. And he asked about, do the markets really go after your stops? And it reminds me of setting and trading with John Hill over the years and many times, and we used to call it Hill's Law. He says, put your stop in, they're gonna get you at the high tick or low tick anyway, so you might as well take out the mystery out of it. But really, they really don't. In fact, folks, the reason for me going to Chicago to trade on the floor was not to be a floor trader. I just wanted to see if the floor trading was actually fair and equitable for everybody. I wanted to make sure that they didn't see the stops that you had in there. And frankly, they didn't, folks. I mean, I can attest to that. I was there just about three years and I didn't see any of that. So I think something is amiss if you think that's happening. Most probably what you do is you put your stop really close, like you're putting a two-point stop on the S&P or something like that when we're trading at 50, 60 handles on a day. That's pretty hard to do that. And so I would think that you'd wanna be able to give it a little bit more room, but they're not going after your stops. Believe me, when I say that, it's electronic trading didn't change at all, Jay. There really isn't. And many, Mr. Bill's saying that people put their stops at round numbers. You shouldn't do that. One of the biggest revelations that I ever had when I was in Switzerland, once giving a talk to some folks over there, and I had gotten stopped out of like four different things at the exact high of the day. And it was, I put my stops beyond the highs. I don't put them around numbers, I just put them up there. And I noticed that it was at the 1.27 number. Well, it wasn't until about three months later when I met Bryce Gilmore, that it became very apparent to me that I was putting my stop exactly at the 1.27 level. My overall view of the market was correct, but in fact, what happened was it really was enabled. Thank you for the compliment on the newsletter about the baseball analogy. I'm a big fan of Billy Bean, and it was really seeing what's gonna be looking on today. Anyway, that's the main reason is to, you've got to put your stop at it. Look, folks, let me explain something to you, the real simple. A, you're hardly ever gonna get the high tick or low tick. I mean, that's reserved for God, and she only trades two days a week. So you just really can't do that. And remember that these stops are there for your protection, and that's the main thing that you have to do. The other thing that you wanna remember is that you don't know what's going to happen next. And do you know why? Because all ancient astronaut theorists know that that's the case. So make sure that you keep your stops in for your protection, very, very important. I've been able to catch up on all my ET stuff over these holidays, so I'm able to see what's going on in the world of ET's. And I understand that there might be one landing on the White House lawn very soon, but that may or may not be true, I don't know.  And if you believe any of that, I still have two shares of the Brooklyn Bridge. Okay, the $64 question, is gold gonna break out to the upside? If you'll remember last week, one of the things that I focused on was the fact that gold has broken out tremendously to the upside when you look at it in the forms of the currency that you're looking in. Steve Rhodes has done the great deal of work on this. And I think it's really important that you realize that each currency has its own thing, like the Euro, gold is trading, I think at 1850 or something like that. And the Swiss rank and the pound and the end, all of them were just really unbelievable that they've had these huge moves, taking out the highs of 2016 by a great deal. But if you base it on what the US dollar is doing, that's the whole key to looking at what's going on here. Folks, all I know is that they're putting so much money into these bonds and stuff. And of course, the reason why the market is so strong this morning, is the fact that we've had the Japan come in and he said, that doesn't make any difference what we do, we're gonna buy all the bonds available. Doesn't make any difference, whatever the price. And so they basically have thrown caution to the wind. If this doesn't work, folks, we're in big trouble. And that's probably which direction we're going, but who knows? We are certainly living in interesting times as we know, but we'll be able to see what happens in the future. Keep two things you watch very closely, folks. Watch the treasury bonds, because if we can get above that 184 level of the treasury bonds, that means we're probably gonna go to zero rates here. And then also keep an eye on the US dollar, because if the US dollar starts to weaken, that means that people that are buying this stuff want some protection. And that's when you're gonna run into a little bit of a problem. And that could be the thing that makes gold move. But I really don't believe that there's enough money in the world to buy the gold if it starts running. So I don't know, I'm just watching it. It's got a very bearish pattern in gold, silver and platinum, but those could change in a heartbeat and we could be on our way, and then you have to be a breakout. Because if we do break out and we go, we could easily see $2,500 or even $3,000 on gold if it does break out above that 1,800 level. So that's not much of a jump in my estimation. All right, let's take a little break here.<PHONE_NUMBER>. If you're not currently using the TAS Profile Scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities, then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon. The TAS Profile Scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures and forex. 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I wanted to bring up a chart here that we've showed this before but I think in supporting right now. Look, just because we've got all this debt and look at these, we've had tremendous markets even during these debt cycles. So trade what you see, not what you think and I know that's a hard thing to do but that's what gets you in trouble as you start to think about what these fundamentals might be and boy, I'll tell you they're complex as they can get as far as I can tell. It's not like what it used to be. Years ago, it was just a simple money supply. If M1 or M2 jumped to my goodness, T-bills and treasury bonds would have used moves and now no one even watches money supply anymore because it's infinite and that's what's happening. They're trying to save what's going on in the world and it's very difficult. We've never gone through anything like this. I mean, this is historically something that has never happened before.  But when you stop and think a quarter of a million people, folks, when you have a planet's got 7.3 billion, boy, you shut down everything for that. I mean, that's almost like, well, it's terrible. Well, I really don't understand it so I better shut up and remove all doubt. Okay, let's move on here to see a couple of other things that I wanted to mention that I think that's pretty good. And then we'll be watching here. First of all, someone's asked me the question, do I think the stock market has made a major top? Yes, I certainly do believe that. Whether it continues to go a lot higher than where we are right now, I'm not sure but nobody else is either. This is a very important pattern that was made up there. We've brought it to your attention many times so there's no reason to talk about it too much but we're seeing some really bad things happening in our banking index. Folks, take a look at how weak our banking sector is. Now let me ask you a question.   Are you gonna be a little stingy with it and use it to the best of your ability? I think that's what they're going to be doing. I think that people, the government that is sending these checks out to everybody, they think that they're gonna go out and start buying right away. Well, there might be buying food but I don't think they're gonna be buying things like televisions and Apple watches and stuff like that. I just don't think that that's gonna happen but again, that's my opinion and I try not to have opinion, just look at the charts. That's basically it. The key to these markets from a interest rate is you just look at those treasury bonds and treasury notes and we're not very far from zero interest rates and basically that's what Japan said, we're going to zero and all of the central bankers are meeting this week. So what do you think they're gonna be doing? They're gonna be looking at some probably the same thing. So that's it. I remember about five years ago we were giving a speech over in Australia and we were flying to New Zealand and as we were getting in the airport they had stopped all planes to see what's going on. Hey, we got Mr. Z on the line. John, how are you this morning? Good morning Larry, they had stopped. Well, to let all of the countries planes, Germany and not Australia, Germany and France and the US all of these with all the big boys were lined up all in a row and they were each plane was headed out and it was really kind of funny to watch it go. I think there were six of them, this was a G20 meeting but these six planes were heading over to Wellington for the G20 meeting and that's why it was kind of funny. Sarah and I were looking out the window and it was really interesting to see that going on. Go ahead my friend, what's up? Larry, in my life I have been stuck any particular spot and had a presidential motorcade go past with the same deal. I never heard the story of it happening in an airport. That's very cool. Yeah, it was funny. What's your question? I wanted to ask if you could help me please with silver on the intermediate term. Sure. Just by way of background, 75 pick a round number and that was a 5786 level up to 48 and you came down to that 1375 a couple of times. I think it's 16 and maybe in 18 you did the same. So I had traded quite six, that was a bottom and then of course down to 11 and change as you had documented. My question with that background in mind, do you have any and change major bottom and had higher in some particular fashion? Well John, the answer to that is yes, no and possibly. I really, no, I actually- Well no, the answer to the question is we've been in this trading range and the $64 question is, we had a high last year at $19.75 which was the 78% level on the long-term basis. And then on this last rally, we couldn't even come anywhere near that retracement level and when gold was breaking out to the upside and platinum tried to break out and then gave everything back plus about another $300 an ounce. So my assumption is these metals are bearish. And I will stand corrected if we get above 1762 in the gold and the June gold but the open interest is not telling us that it's wants to go higher. So those are just a few of the things that are making me wonder, given all the fundamentals if you ever think of stuff like this back in the old days John when we were doing this 30 years ago you see numbers like this golden be up $100 a day without any trouble at all. But that's not happening now. So there's just not a lot of interest in the gold market and even less interest in the silver market. Now the GLD does look pretty bullish but the regular gold contract certainly doesn't. I like that idea of using 1760 as a line of demarcation that will give you clues to the answer to my question. And I'm looking at Tiger TV and see where you get that number. So it's all clear to me. Thanks for the answer Larry. I'll bid you do and you have a great day. Thank you very much for calling in John and thanks for letting me know about that thing about the ICBC Bank because we're gonna see more of those things I think as some of these banks get a little bit scared of backing even these big hitters because they can really get hurt badly if they're not careful. So that's a real good thing to look at. When we come up to the break here we're going to have Simonly on and maybe he'll give us some insight of what's going on with the farmers and some of the things that are heading on with the market. So that'll be fun to pay close attention to. Now the next thing we wanna do is to talk just a little bit about the grain markets. They don't look very good folks. I don't know if it's going to be either here or there but you'll see that we'll be right back folks.<PHONE_NUMBER>. Larry Pezzavento watches the markets 24-7 and now is a great time to try out his daily trading service, Fibonacci 24-7. Larry publishes videos and charts for subscribers throughout the week when warranted and every weekend he puts out a thorough report covering worldwide markets, futures, commodities and currencies with Fibonacci retracement levels, possible trading setups and zones and stops and targets for all recommendations included. Larry applies the principles he's developed over decades of trading while analyzing a variety of markets for subscribers. To see for yourself the types of videos, charts and analysis that Larry provides for his subscribers sign up for Fibonacci 24-7 today by visiting the front page of TFNN.com under the newsletter tab. You'll also gain instant access to Larry's archive subscriber webinar from earlier this year. 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See for yourself the types of options and equity trades that are available by signing up for The Path of Lease Resistance today by visiting the front page of TFNN.com and selecting the newsletter tab. Sign up today. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, Your Ultimate Trading Mastery System, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first-of-its-kind program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day unconditional money back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. We have Symonly of Sylvia's Financial on the line. Sy, how are you doing this morning, my friend? I'm good, Larry, how are you? Pretty good, we have three questions. The first question is from a listener out in Nebraska and he is asking, are we headed to the dust bowl type of environment with the economy, like we had in 1929 to 1938 in the farming market? What's your opinion there? No, and the difference really is, if we were to allow markets to be free then maybe, right? But the difference is we have the Fed, they'll spend money. So you gotta think, why the stock market up, right? Why are we gonna have the dust bowl? Why aren't these things similar? It's because of the, they'll throw everything at it. Two and a half, three trillion dollars could just be the beginning. So I think what's gonna happen is stock market breaks, we trade sideways, yeah, we go into a six months, 12 months sort of sideways market. Larry, where you don't have growth, you think in the stock market what's happened in the Latin, the first 20% up of last year was just all buybacks. So you correct that. Now you go into a period of sort of semi-deflation, so that's a good question. But the backside of that, actually, if you're a farmer is inflation. So if we open up the country and Bill Gates made a statement, it could take 18 months, and so let's take six to 18 months for this thing to sort of normalize and you don't get big growth back in the stock market. So I don't think you have dust bowl. I think you have deflation or sort of stay inflation for a little bit, then you have inflation. So if you're a farmer in Nebraska, hold on this year, because next year, I think it could get pretty interesting, pretty boldish for you. Psy, there was an article that came out this morning about the ICBC Bank in China, where they are not allowing any trading in any of the crude oil components, heating oil, gasoline and crude oil, and also in soybeans and the soybean complex. Do you have any feeling of what that means or? That seems rather strange. Yeah, that is rather strange. Again, it's the Chinese, I'm not sure what to make of it. Think of it like this, though. It really, it doesn't matter for us because our soybean market is deliverable US, and so what you really wanna think of is we'll try to buy our grain, I think so. I mean, I think they're going to need to stockpile our grain again at some point. Is it now? I'm not sure, right? I think it's gonna be cheaper prices, so they still need to buy lots of grain. Okay, the third question that we have is from a listener in Illinois, and he is asking, where is the bottom in the corn market and what is the cost of production on corn? And that's interesting, I was just looking at that. If you're in Illinois and you're looking at the cost of production, your cost of production is probably around $3.60 to $3.70 a bushel, so deliverable against the D's contract, you're 50 cents under that. So where's the bottom in corn? I tell you, I think corn can continue to drift lower. You look at the May contract is gonna get to about three bucks. Calf porn in a lot of places is $2.50 to $2.80, so you're getting pretty darn cheap. The answer to that question is tell me when demand comes back, right? If demand is half, right, because we have supply, there's two types of markets, supply and demand. Right now, we have enough supply and supply is getting bigger. If demand comes back, you put a bottom in the market. So watch your driving habits, watch the country, it might take three months, don't get me wrong. Normal weather, big corn market, this year you have a 3.5 carryout, D's corn can easily go to $2.80, $2.70, right? Now, does it stay there for very long? I'm not sure. You probably have to get big shorts. Again, I think that's where you have the six month of deflation problem. And then after that, Mr. Farmer, you got to hold on, so protect, protect, protect this year. Don't, it's really hard, but make sure you understand your county insurance, your ARC and your PLC. Make sure you're talking to your crop insurance agent, right? Understand your insurance this year really, really good because that's what you're gonna have to lean on. If you haven't hedged, if you haven't done any forward selling. Okay, this makes good sense. Now, the other question that we have is, is the government helping the farmers? Are they getting some of this money that there's supposed to be these trillions of dollars going out? Are the farmers being taken care of? Yeah, but I don't think it's that much. I think it's like 15 cents a bushel, some of the math I've read. So they're helping them in more of subsidized insurance, these ARC and PLC insurance programs. So I would say that's where the help is coming in. Okay. Well, that makes really good sense. And I want to thank you for coming on the show because I know you're really busy. And I'm glad to help you. Well, we certainly enjoy it. That's for sure. One other question, a sugar. We're trading sugar at nine cents. We were at 17 cents just a little while ago. Is there a bottom in sugar somewhere, Si? No, that's the same problem, right? It comes down to demand. What's happened is we all can see the supply side of the metrics, but when you go look at demand, it's just crushed. So it's sort of the same problem. Tell me when these demand curves change and you have bottoms and commodities. And the other thing, Larry, we've talked about you are in deflationary period, right? I don't think the dollar breaks yet. That's the other problem. Think of exports, think of relationships to other countries, the US dollar does not break. It is sort of a short-term slice of quality. So that's my problem. I think you have six months of the dollar staying strong. Then when you have inflation, the dollar breaks, right? And so you'll come rushing back for a bull market, but that's timing and understanding that is economics master's degree. So here's the other thing I hear people talk about, Larry. It's inflation versus deflation. It's really gonna come down to the velocity of money. When do people get back to doing things? You have to have that rush back. I don't think we're there yet, right? Ask me, I'm not going out. I'm a young guy, I'm 45 years old.  Are you, Larry? Do you wanna go out? No way, right? The older you get, the less risk you're gonna take. And that might be a third of our population. So I don't think the velocity of money people rushing back is going to create demand just yet. So is there a bottom? I don't think so. Wow, this is really great information. Hey, thank you for coming on, my friend, and we wanna wish you the best of luck. Stay safe and take care of that lovely family of yours. Thank you, Larry, we'll do it, you too. Okay, you bet. Thank you, folks. That was Simon Lee of Sylvia's Financial in Farm Bureau. We'll take a quick look here at what's going on with the markets. We're still up on the days selling off just a tiny bit. Gold is still under a tiny bit of pressure. Crude oil has just made a 50% retracement there at 1221 in the June. However, remember, folks, you've gotta trade the August if you can trade it.  Anytime we see a market that goes minus 40,000, $37,000 is quite a big deal and you don't want to get in the way of it. That's the main thing to pay close attention to because you don't wanna get stuck in something like what happened to that young man over in Singapore because that makes it a little different. I wanted to show this chart of sugar because we are down in an area. Just think, folks, we were almost at $16 a pound here in sugar and we've dropped, wow, 60% making a double bottom down here, possibly at 978. Now, I don't know what the cost of production is on sugar, but if you like double bottoms and you wanna find a place to go long, wait till that bottom is formed that goes back above $10 a pound and then you'd have a better chance. So we'll take a little break here.<PHONE_NUMBER>. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First Mortgage Program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the Tax Opportunity Zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. 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Until the S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on U.S. large-cap stocks in either direction, trade SPXL, SPUU, or SPXS, directions daily, S&P 500, bull and bear, leveraged ETFs, direction leveraged ETFs. An investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call<PHONE_NUMBER> or visit directioninvestments.com. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, four-side fund services, LLC. The Bull Bear Trading Hour with Tom and Tommy O'Brien. Next. Okay, folks, I posted a chart of the commodity research Bureau index. You'll notice that we're down here near a double bottom. And the key word there is potential double bottom. And so what we're doing is watching that. As we heard from Cy, you know, there's a possibility we could see corn get down to below $3 a barrel if there's no demand, and that's possible. From my experience over the years during these times, like W.D. Gann said, the cure for high prices was high prices and the cure for low prices is low prices because that's where you're stimulating demand or rationing demand in the point of high prices. So we just keep watching and that's all I'm doing is I'm waiting to see really clear ABCD patterns, three drive patterns, one, three, five patterns that give us a really good entry into the market. That's the main thing that we're watching. For instance, we had a recommendation to sell the gold up there at that 78% level at 1762. It's had a pretty good break, but basically all we're doing is we don't know what's going to happen next. So we basically lower your stop down to about 1755 and that locks in a small profit. But if we're right, this could have a bigger percentage. So we don't know. The problem with that gold and silver market folks are just no players coming into it. And you really need that. You can see when players were leaving the market in the crude oil, you can see what was happening there. I mean, that's could easily happen in some of these other things. There's not a rule that says that $3 has got to be a bottom in corn. It might be 250 given what's going on in the world. So you've got to protect yourself. Because if you don't, you're telling Mr. Market that you know better than they do. And that's a very, very interesting thing. Since we're on the talk about open interest here, I wanted to bring this to your attention here. Because if you are trading crude oil, it's important that you pay attention to this. Because just about all of the CME firms have disallowed trading now in June and July. And you can see June and July was 750,000 of the open interest. So the only other ones you can trade are August and September. And September is a little bit better to trade. And if you wanted to really get active is watch the December contract for December 20. Now, you'll notice it's trading at a lot higher price. But the one thing that you wanna do is that you've got a big open interest there in December. So that's the one you'd wanna be trading.  Because we're at $12 here at the 61% retracement. And that doesn't mean it's going to stay there. That's the main thing to keep in mind here. Let's see what the markets are doing right now. Oh, we're starting to sell off a little bit more which was we were sort of expecting that because we made a last night, I don't know if you folks follow these numbers like 618 and 786 and stuff like that. But we made a perfect 78% retracement of the high that we made on the daily basis. Let's get this up here. Maybe we can show it to you folks here. I think we'll be able to do it. All I gotta do is make a quick little correction here and then we'll be able to get up here and you'll be able to see we hit it right spot on and I'll get this out of the way. And then you'll be able to see it. So bear with me here one second. That number came in at 24,000 in the Dow Jones and our high during this time was 23,991. You missed about 10 points. Let's get it up here so you folks can take a quick look at it and you'll be able to see it here. I'm really not watching copper too much Marshall but I believe copper is headed lower. You know what? I do have copper for you Marshall by golly. I should never turn you down my friend. And let's get up here and take a quick look here at copper. And I think we'll be okay here, Mr. Copper. I believe you'll notice here's where we are. This is the weekly and we got up to that 382 retracement in copper at 236. I believe there's gonna be some resistance up there 236 and we'll start to move down a little bit more. Now we did make a 78% retracement here in late March. So that gave the 40 cent run because that was a big ABCD right out of 78% on the long-term weekly. So that was a very, very important number. And frankly, we could even go higher I guess but the way it looks right now, it looks like copper should be backing off and that would give us a better place to enter. So that's the main thing that we would be watching. Well, let's just move on here to the next one here that someone asked about. And since we're in the area of commodities, we're gonna talk about the piggies. This is where, folks, I'll tell you what, I can say with a lot of confidence down the road that's gonna be really hard to get some meats and they're gonna be really expensive. So stockpile what you can, ground beef or ground pork because down the road here, they're cutting back herds. They're still almost giveaway prices for the hides, leather and pigskin, they're almost giving it away. And that was a premium, a premium way back in September and August. I mean, it was selling at a really high premium and now they can't even give it away. So when these markets change, you gotta be able to see, ooh, something's happening here. It was nice to hear Sai talking about the supply is there but there's just basically no demand. And with the Fed pumping everything, they can into the market. What if this doesn't work, folks? This giant experiments of helicopter, banner, whatever it is, if it doesn't work, then we're gonna be in deep doo-doo. That's the $64 question that we have to ask ourselves. And the answer to that, I am not sure of. And you know what? I don't think anybody else is either and that's the real key to what we're looking at in here. I wanted to share with you one other things to mention here and that is, hold on one second here. Let me get this up. It's about almost very close and that's the wheat market. We're getting very, very close to a big garlic pattern in wheat. And then you'll be able to see here that we've gotta go about another 15, 16 cents. This is really important, folks, at 15, 14 in the May wheat because that's gonna be a big garlic. And remember, if you're gonna be buying there, I wouldn't risk more than four cents. I mean, these markets are moving so actively that I would do that. I haven't made a recommendation on that yet and I probably will wait a day or two to see what happens with it. But the wheat is forming, really nice one. The corn trade went below the 325 level. Beans bounced off the garlic for a little bit and then went below it. So the loss on that would have been about a break even or just two cents. So right now we're just waiting the Euro, those of you that belong to the 24-7, we're short the gold from 62 and we're long the Euro from 107.40 and locked in some profits on those and that's really what we're watching real closely. We also still have the short position in the E-mini S&P from a 28-80 and we're waiting to see how that works out this week. We didn't take out last week's highs as of yet. That was very important because of all those multiple ABCD patterns that were there and it was really very, very important. Remember, folks, when you're trading the NASDAQ, you're basically trading Microsoft and you're trading Apple. That's 25% of the NASDAQ. So that's a very, very important thing to look at. Someone's asked a question about the news. Folks, I'll tell you, there's so much news out there that if you try to trade off the news, you'll be long and short within three seconds of each other the way this news pops around. So all I know is it's gonna be different this time and how it's gonna end up, I'm not really sure. So we'll have to wait and see. Tomorrow we got another segment coming up but I wanna remind you that we do have Shane Smollion on tomorrow. And then on Friday, we will have Tim Bost and I have one other, hopefully one of the folks from this foundation for the study of cycles that's been geared up is possibly gonna be our guest on Wednesday or Thursday. And that would be nice because I started cycle stuff way back in the late 60s, early 70s with the old foundation.<PHONE_NUMBER>, we'll be right back. I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trait we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what the most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. I'm Steve Rhodes, author of Mastering Probability and for the last 12 months, Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, six and three months. Timer Digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well. The fact is markets can be timed and I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do. Sign up for Mastering Probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of TFN.com and get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step on how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls too. Sign up today. If you haven't checked out the newsletters page of TFN.com, what are you waiting for? All of the TFN newsletters are informative, up to date, affordable and must have for every trader looking to gain a competitive informational edge in today's markets. TFN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets to offer you the very latest in market news plus new subscribers get to test drive our newsletters risk-free for 30 days. From all aspects of the markets, including stocks, bonds, metals, commodities and tech, there's a newsletter to fit your needs exclusively from TFNN. Stay informed each day you trade and get the competitive edge that will help you stay ahead of the game. Visit our newsletters page by going to TFNN.com and click the newsletters button near the top of the page. TFNN.com, educating investors. Markets trading with extreme volatility and peaks and troughs everywhere regardless of what you're looking at in the markets. This is a great time to see the type of analysis Basil Chapman delivers for his subscribers every market day with the opening call newsletter. Basil has been analyzing markets providing his take for subscribers to his trading services since 1984. Every morning Basil publishes an update for his subscribers along with weekend and evening updates when warranted. The opening call provides traders a daily market overview with regard to the direction of the key indices, selective stocks and commodities along with specific recommendations including stops and targets. You also gain instant access to Basil's subscriber webinar archive from earlier this year, a dark cloud cover and essential market analysis. Ride the Chapman wave today by signing up for the opening call newsletter on the front page of TFNN.com under the newsletter tab. New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk, sign up today. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. And basically I wanted to show this chart of the US, Germany, China, Japan, the 10 year government bonds. As you can see here the Chinese government bonds are about 2.5% yielding. US is just about 0.60 right now. Japan is basically at even and Germany is of course negative interest rates. Now this all started back in 2008 with helicopter bin folks. I don't know how this is gonna play out. We're living in history so we'll have to watch it. Keep a close eye on those treasury bonds folks because if they start to fail that is going to be the key that something big is happening. Now maybe they go negative. Who knows? That's not gonna happen. But someone asked the question will oil go negative again? And Pedro, I don't know if it will or not. They've got, they've scared the bejeebies out of everybody with the oil. So my guess is they're gonna put some restrictions on it because when you can see a contract that goes minus $37,000. And it was one guy that was doing it. You know there was some other, maybe a few small people involved that were big hitters but there were no little guys in there getting killed. That shouldn't have been happening because they were shutting down the trading on that. Going into the last day of trading they don't allow you to do that. So I frankly don't think oil will go to negative again. But guys can you think of this in September? We were talking about oil. Was it $69 a barrel? We were in September the 13th. We were giving a seminar and we were getting ready for trading on Monday. And the Saudis had got hit with the drones and the oil was trading at $69 a barrel right at the exact 78 cents, $78 a barrel level spot on. And we were saying this is where you wanna short it. And of course we said recover the short when it's minus 37. And if you believe that I still have two shares of the Brooklyn Bridge. Anyway, let's keep our pedal to the metal here watching these things, be flexible. Make sure that you use stops folks, especially now. My goodness, if you don't use stops now you could really get hurt. And it's not just the pain it damages the trading soul. And that's what really, really sets you back. You can get over the loss of a small loss and stuff but these monster losses that people like happen in Singapore, bad news. Live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may God bless.


channel gestionine happy Saturday morning y'all it is a beautiful Saturday morning little cloudy just a bit but mostly sunny so I am up early this morning I'm actually running behind I actually kind of over slept a little bit so I'm on my way to meet with my brother my cousin on some things then I got a hit to hobby lobbying run some errands and some other stuff but yeah I just want to get look at a little bit more decor yeah I just wanted to get a little bit more decor for my room and just to kind of get some more ideas for you know what I want to put on the walls because I don't know if I want to do more of the wall art as far as the kind that you just stick on the wall or if I want to do more like frame pictures and stuff like that so yeah that's what I'm trying to figure out I'm gonna get it together so I don't know about y'all but I am going to enjoy my Saturday so I'll be watching my niece today she's gonna be playing volleyball for the first time so I'm gonna go see that it's gonna be cute but y'all I am so glad it is the weekend like oh my goodness and I get a three-day weekend because it is Memorial Day weekend so I hope y'all have a safe and happy Memorial Day just wherever you are and I hope you eat well and enjoy you know your friends family whatever but yeah that's pretty much all I got going on today I'm gonna head over to my cousin's house and and do we need to do there and then I'll be heading out to some other places to kind of hurry along my day so I will see y'all in a bit so just made it to the rec center and I'm about to watch my niece play her first game of volleyball so it's gonna be really fun so about to go inside this one lady came up to me she just hug me I don't know who she was but she said did you do good today and I said yes ma'am who who this lady was and the lady come I guess her daughter came up she said do you know my mom I said no ma'am I don't know your mom she's she just hugged me like she knew me she said did you do good today she just kept saying did you do good today and I was like I don't know this lady but I'm gonna pretend like I do and so we're going to get some or at least look at some items for um I got a lot going on here so I'd love them watching my niece play volleyball and then I had to go give me something because I was about the start of the day I'm sorry just got finished scarfing down a good old turkey sandwich was slaw from Wicks barbecue and some chips some chips and some lemonade that was really good so now I'm at my folks house and she took my mom's home we have the we have some family in town that's here for family reunion which I did not know and so yeah to be good to see them because I have not seen a lot of my family from the up north and like years and years and years so and my mom was standing the doorway with rollers I have some of us just pulled up at my parents house and here's Brent Brandon why you look lost come on Brandon here come on Brandon you got to go pee pee I don't know who let them out they just got in my hair one and ain't nobody even I hear watching them come on Brandon the bathroom my mom she do on her hair say hey mama hey mama tired y'all sit down oh what a day so I'm just sitting here in my folks house it looked like it's about to rain it looks very gloomy it was sunshine early today but it looked like it's clouding up but we're gonna get some rain um I got to get some spray paint and I don't think I'm gonna be able to do my DIY today because it's probably gonna rain and I'm gonna need for that to sit outside and dry so I probably won't get to do the file cabinet today so I have to do that on a different day but I'm gonna show y'all some indoor stuff some indoor some indoor DIY stuff that I got for y'all so I'm tired I'm sleepy I ate that sandwich and now I got the itis and if you don't know what the itis is eat some food and immediately you get sleepy that's what you call the itis old school term are you ready or what you doing oh I'm gonna show you so my brother let me borrow his Fitbit because I'm I was I never had a Fitbit before and I've seen them I've heard about them but I didn't really think it was anything that I would use but he let me borrow his this is just the oh it just automatically comes on but this one is the just the HR this is the one of the older models and and it checks your heart rate and your calories and your distance and different things like that so in your sleep so this is the reason why I really want to get one to check for my sleep and because I don't sleep well at all I wake up about two or three hours after laying down I don't sleep well toss and turn a lot at night so it's gonna track my sleep and check my sleep so that's gonna be pretty cool just to see what it says it went off but anyway my resting heart rate was like a 8081 I guess that's pretty good cuz I'm just sitting here I guess nothing like sitting out here in the country country living you can sit on your own stoop or your own front porch and just enjoy the scenery is a scenery just tall trees and grass ah the birds are chirping it's just nice and peaceful out here in the country I can never live in a city city life is not for me it's just peace and quiet out here and just nature is all you hear is just nature just the birds chirping the wind blowing rustling through the trees it's just the most relaxing and peaceful setting and scenery city life everything fast-paced everybody moving stress just rush rush rush rush rush country living just peace listen to the birds just peace oh no oh no oh no no sir no my settings are wrong did I'm right my mama you just gonna walk off and leave me yep I'll let smoke up yeah I was trying to look to see if I saw a lot of y'all got out of the sea I'll let smoke up here that uh It's good.  Huh?  What?  What is this? This is you. So y'all are riding with me. Good. What you mean? I'll cut down to people high. What's up y'all? They're featured. We sure are. Check it out. ChurchTV Network. There you go. On YouTube. On YouTube. Description box.  Hot is all get out some ice cream and I got the infamous upside-down banana split for those don't know what upside-down banana split is it is ice cream walnuts glaze walnuts bananas cherries pineapples chocolate fudge and strawberry syrup it's all upside down in a cup and it's like the best thing ever oh man what's the place right here called cream delight and it has been around since I guess before I was even born it was yes been around well since I was born I know was I I know this place has been around since the 60s because I'm going to show y'all something if you notice on the wall there I know if you can see it good but there are some old water fountains there and it used one used to say colored and one used to say white and that's how far back this this little ice cream shop goes back it was it was so far back it was segregated to see those water fountains and the sad part is is they never took them down completely they just painted over them it took the falses out of them but for those that remember my my parents and other people that remember that's still a room that is still a racist reminder and I'm not really sure why they even left those up there but I want to try to see that this is this is the south this is this is Alabama they try to cover this stuff up but it's there they want you to it's like they want you to remember this ice cream is here people make their banana split some people put peanuts on there if a true banana split does not have peanuts on it no it's either gonna have pecans or it's gonna have walnuts blaze one and when they give it to me it was like in a little saying anybody put peanuts on a banana split I felt so do that was so disrespectful of my banana split that they put peanuts on it who does that who would do that to a banana split that I can definitely use ottomans chairs just a really great stuff this is my first time actually in home goods because I usually just go to old-time pottery or hobby lobby apologize guys I did not properly end up the vlog but if you like this video please give a thumbs up please comment and don't get to click that subscribe button it's just Janine bye


Hi everybody, I am Matthew Miller and this is a Fedora council video meeting we try to conduct our business on email and IRC and chat and things like that most of the time sometimes in tickets, but it's also good to have these high bandwidth conversations so we do a video meeting about once a week we usually check in with some interesting part of the project. See what's going on there, what needs, what things Fedora council can do and just kind of to distribute the information to people from what's going on from something they may not be following. So, today we have Chris Murphy who's from the fedora workstation working group and he's going to talk about the butter fs change the butter fs or btr fs or better fs however you want to pronounce it is the new default file system for desktop. Operating systems in fedora 33 going forward but our 33 beta it's out already fedora 33 final in just a scant few weeks. So, this is a pretty exciting big change. And I know we've had a lot of enthusiast attention around this like people who like to run Linux for fun on their systems are very interested in butter fs. So, it's gotten a lot of attention so I'm sure there'd be a lot of interesting questions in this. And so, Chris doesn't have slides but he's kind of talk about it and I guess we'll kind of talk about where the idea came from to do this switch who is behind it. How, how it's going so far, and what we expect for future plans, I guess that's the basics. And with that, I'll turn it over to Chris. Thanks Matthew. So I've been a fedora user since maybe fedora 11 and active in mostly fedora qa since around fedora 16. And now I've been on the workstation working group for a bit over one year. And there's a little bit of butter fs history in fedora there's a long arc and a short arc to the story. And the summary that I'll just give away from the outset is that this is a surprise, and this is not a surprise. So, both of these are actually true. The long arc to the story begins in 2011. FASCO actually approved butter fs as the default file system way back then. And for various reasons it was set aside and then began a long period of butter fs isn't quite ready and things simmered for a number of years. But quite a lot of work was still going on behind the scenes ensuring that fedora continue to adhere to release criteria standards where butter fs has been a release blocking file system for about eight years or so. And then as part of fedora next the workstation working group had said that file system decisions were up to the working groups and a document that the workstation working group put together way back when said that butter fs would be the default at some point. So, you might jump into some background on that. Sure, go ahead. Yeah, just the fedora next thing was a strategic initiative we did about five years ago to kind of help chart the future path of fedora and one of the things we did was say that different. The groups that put together things like fedora workstation KDE fedora server are, you know, top headline additions would have more autonomy in what they do in each thing so that we didn't have decisions made for the desktop. People who are running fedora on their servers saying this is a desktop oriented decision. It's terrible for our servers. You can't do it. We wanted to and conversely, you know, server oriented decisions. People on the desktop saying why are we have all this server stuff affecting what our defaults are so we wanted to split that up a little bit so we could address these different use cases differently. So that also has allowed us to experiment with a lot of things. I think it's, I think it's been successful. So that's kind of where that, yeah, changing decision making process goes to. Sorry, gone. Yeah, good agreed with all that. So then about three years ago, the working group, the workstation working group started looking at changing the default file system. So that's the long arc of the story that goes back some years. The short arc sort of begins in parallel with that. It's compatible with that story, but it does have a different origin point, which is just this year. Earlier this year we took up the question again of default file system to solve a particular problem. That is somewhat common for developers running out of space on either the root file system or the home file system in the current or former depending on your point of view default partitioning layout and file system set up root and home or separate file systems. So sometimes people would run out of space on one or the other while there was still space left over on the other one. So I've been trying to get a particular but I ran into that a lot myself. Yeah, some it is interesting that some people run into this problem more often than others. And it is it is use case specific. So for those people that have that particular use case they run into it often, and then other people go what, but that's sort of a recurring theme in the default file system conversations is folks will say well what about and then they'll give their example and everyone will nod their head and go. Yeah, I can see how that could happen but then lots of other people guys never heard of such a thing. So, a lot of this has been juggling a variety of use cases. And trying to compromise. There. No, you were talking about the short arc. So, back to the short arc, I've been trying to get a particular butterfs developer on board helping us, Joseph boss. Joseph actually used to work at red hat at the time when for had originally approved butterfs as the default. And he's been one of the original butterfs developers for over a decade. So, Gumpa, who got multiple parties to commit pretty much all at the same time earlier this year, and they put together a presentation for the workstation working group that was, it was compelling. Because it turns out it wasn't any one specific thing that was the most compelling, but just the sheer number of nice to have features, perhaps overwhelmed the decision making process, and made it clear that butterfs was the way to go. So it really did happen fast. And it has been a long time coming. So it's both of those story arcs, I think are true. And that's pretty much all I have for the for background. You want to talk about some of those features that you found compelling the workstation working group on compelling. Are we seeing those features now or are they kind of like our people going to get them with the door 33 or the things that are enablers for the future more in those features. I think all of the above. The most immediate issue that is set aside that is resolved by the change is that users running out of free space on either the root file system or the home file system won't happen anymore. And that's because we will now have the one big file system approach. So there will be one big butterfs file system instead of separate file systems for root and home. There will be soft barriers to continue to separate root and home. So that folks that have a particular use case of reusing their home directories for reinstallations, you know, if you're reinstalling the operating system, you want to be able to reuse it. That is still possible to do with an account of the installer and butterfs. The two of them for a long time have had really good support for that particular use case to reuse home. Okay. Yeah, that would be top on the list. Go ahead. Because that's one of the things that people work the most is about how they're going to recover the home in a fresh install if they don't want to lose their data, you know. And the other question is that a lot of people is saying that normal comments like du or df works well with butterfs. So I, if I remember correctly in a magazine article, there are some kind of comments specifically for butterfs to check that this usage. So how, how do you think people are just going to react that they can type normal du comment. So, yeah, it's a good question. What I would say for the most part is on the desktop with single devices. We should reliably get information from du and df. There's a possible confusion where df shows the mount points for root and home because they're on separate sub volumes, but they show the same size. That is actually true, but it's confusing for those who are used to root file system and the home file system being separate and having separate specific size allocations. So even though that's different with the butterfs in the layout that we have, df is still telling the truth. And so does du. Where we start to run into possibly some difficulties with du. And I'm going to stand way over my skis when I say this, because it's a bit of a jargon territory that I haven't really sufficiently done any background explanation on. But we have this concept in in butterfly snapshots, ref link copies or efficient copies and deduplication. And those three things create a thing called shared extents and du is not aware of shared extents. So in the case where you want to know how much space is uniquely or exclusively taken up in a particular directory or sub volume, then you do need a butter of a specific du for that. So it's just a matter of perspective. The conventional du isn't telling a lie, but it isn't telling the entire truth. So there will be some of that as time goes on, we'll have some of those kinds of confusion, minor confusion, I think. Let me quickly explain those commands for anybody who doesn't know what they are, but hasn't been scared away yet. df and du are two command line tools that show you use disk usage on your system. df is, I think of as disk free, it kind of shows you the list of every file system. And it tells you how much free space is on each one. And I'm looking on my Fedora 33 beta system right now and I see that the slash file system and the slash home file system where all my user data, my personal files live both show up, but they both show that they're the same size and they have the same amount free. So that could be confusing because it now it looks like I've got 54 gigabytes free on two, two separate file systems. But the fact is really that's the same, same shared pool and that's not obvious at all in that tool. So that could definitely confuse people that's going to be aware of the other one is disk usage, disk used. And that actually tells you the actual like amount of physical block space that's taken up by a file as opposed to its nominal size. So a file could, for example, if a file contains a lot of zeros in a row, Linux is smart and doesn't actually take up the disk space with all those zeros called a sparse file. So a file might look like it's two terabytes, but only actually be, you know, a megabyte or so if it's got have has that sparse feature. So do you will tell you the actual disk space used normally. But maybe not on butter a fast. So I guess the question is, is there a reason we don't extend the standard d you commanded Fedora or replace the d you command with the butter fast war aware one, or what what is the command I should use for that instead, if the you isn't going to be helpful. That's a good question. In my day to day use of butter fast for many years now. I pretty much only ever use df and d you. I rarely use the butterfly specific ones unless there's something particular that I want to know that I'm aware of that is uniquely butter a fast. So those things tend to only come up with regards to snapshots, ref link copies, or do but I'm not doing any do for the most part on any of my system so it's just the first two. Yeah, so never the last do you just does still tell the truth that, you know, if I point to a directory or a sub volume, it's telling me what's in there it's just not separating out what is uniquely and only in that particular. So, if you then delete stuff from there, you might be surprised to find that you haven't actually freed up space after because it's correct. Yeah, and that can happen with hard blanks as well right so that's. Yeah, maybe. Yeah. Okay, so basically what I'm hearing from this is, if you are aware of storage or using it to do fancy things. You will also need to be aware of the tools to understand this which seems fair. It seems like normal users probably won't get tripped up for this very much. Unless we start doing fancy things which uses those things in the background without people being aware which might be some of our future plans and then we might need to keep that that in in mind better. Or sure, and that was actually part of a big part of why the options in the feature proposal there were three options. None of the three are in fedora 33 are being used in fedora 33. So, one of those compression by default has the sort of a effect where it just adds to the potential confusion of how much space is really being used on disk because some of the tools for example DF will take compression into account. Whereas DU will not take compression into account. Yeah, so folks will will have to do a little bit of experimentation. And if they're interested in this sort of thing and we'll take the feedback and see what sorts of things make sense and you know there's going to be another long arc to the story. As people actually use it. There are so many ways that butterflies is being used in production that the original designers weren't really expecting and that's in a good sense that it that it's being found to be extremely helpful in ways that that weren't anticipated. But yeah, in all the file systems are constantly evolving. They're constantly getting improvements, enhancements and features and butterfests is no exception. Cool. Anyone else have questions. I have another word. I want to give chance to other people to ask questions. Go for it, Edward. All right. Okay. I run for federal systems at home and I'm really interested to know if it's recommended to fresh install or is recommended to convert my current home from those systems to butterfests. Because I am a word that is there is a conversion tool for EXT for to butterfests, but I'm not sure if it's better to convert it or back up a fresh install and revert my backup. Yeah, it's a good question. There is butterfests convert tool and it works to convert X4 to butterfests or riser FS incidentally to butterfests. Don't do that. No. Hi. What I would say about it is the this is an upstream supported tool. The the the gotcha is that you know file systems are actually really quite complex and perhaps one of the most non deterministic things that we have in computer systems today. From the moment you start using them, they start taking multiple quantum forks in probability, you know, how they age and how different they are from each other. So the real world testing of the butterfests convert tool probably doesn't have quite enough for me to highly recommend it. I personally haven't run into failures with it, but I know that some people have run into problems with it. At least from a fedora perspective, I would say you should clean install and that's the expectation is that you will clean install so you'll back up your home directory and completely wipe away the previous installation or at least free up enough space to create a new installation with butterfests. And maybe at some point, you know, we get some bandwidth with users fedora users community and developers to maybe do a butterfests convert specific test day and get a bunch of real world aged X for file systems and really hammer on on making butterfests convert significantly more reliable. Yeah, I wouldn't say it's unreliable now, but it's sort of a yeah. One of the gotchas that you'll have if you're doing a butterfests convert in fedora is you won't get the fedora's installers layout, you don't get the separate home and root sub volume layout. You get a single sub volume hidden sub volume with butterfests convert. So it's pretty much exactly like one big X for file system. There's no sub volume layout at all that's created as a part of butterfests convert. To be clear, my interjection was don't use riser of s not to don't use that conversion. I don't know much about it. It's history will say in the meantime. Yeah, so my systems I did the reinstall because that dividing merging the file systems together home system was kind of the key reason I was interested. But people who are upgrading will stay on X poor, which to be clear is a perfectly good fine file system with a lot of history and reliability so it's not like your world's going to end for you if you don't convert but if you if you like to live on the edge converting seems like an interesting thing to do. And if you don't have a huge amount of data, could you do the convert and then create a home sub volume and then move things over. It might be worth writing an article about like how people could do that to get their systems up to date, maybe. Yeah, most things with butterfests are can be modified after the file system has been created including sub volumes and we can use reflect copies to efficiently move things over. So you don't have to recopy your data into the new sub volume. So yeah it is possible to do it it's a little say again. Does that even happen. So if it converts them with separate basically, as I understand that the conversion will be there'll be a separate home volume and a separate root volume that's not a sub volume. Can it rough copy between those two even or does it have to actually copy. So there's two parts to the question maybe if we're doing a conversion of the current layout where root and home are separate file systems. If we do a conversion, there's still separate file systems those would be two separate butterfests file systems. And in that case, there's no such thing as a as a roughly copy just like there's no such thing as a as a hard link. We can do roughly copies between sub volumes on the same file system. All right, cool. Sorry that might be in the weeds a little bit but interesting. Next topic is how are things going with testing you've talked about test days a little bit here how how tests gone so far. Do things like have we come across problems have we come across. Yeah, how widely tested this is how confident should we be at this point. I'm reasonably confident at this point in terms of the numbers I don't actually have solid numbers. I believe it was a little bit over 100 testers and over 1000 tests run. And that was the second test and it wasn't really a test day it was a test week. So the numbers are a little high probably because of that. Other than I don't have really strong numbers. I don't know that we have. Numbers generally in Dora. Do we. Numbers are hard. Yeah, numbers are hard. I have not gotten a lot of. Oh no this killed my system on the the. Yeah, anecdotally yeah we have had we've had one of those and it and we tracked it through it actually ended up causing two problems. For this user and it turned out that it was. Bad Ram. So I would not recommend butter fest as a memory tester, although it does. It does seem to have that side effect. I do have some numbers on the butter fs test day that I can share in the chat over here. And this is the test on the YouTube actually so. Can you send that to me separately and then I'll make sure we get it. Send it to me and Edward will make sure it gets on the on the YouTube. Links as well. Sure yeah and I can read them here briefly it looks like for the test week that occurred. August 31st through. September, let me see here from August 31st to September 4th. There were. 28 red hat contributors and 77 non red hat contributors for a total of 1020 individual tests run so that's actually. Looking at this probably the best outcome from a test day that we've had in quite a while. Yeah, I think a lot of like I was saying there's a lot of enthusiasts enthusiasm around this. So it kind of brought out people's interest in helping test out so that's that's cool and valuable in itself. Also, I would say that in on the QA side. They're quite a lot of tests that happen every day. They're automated tests. But they, you know, we've been doing automated tests on. They use butter of us as an install target for quite a long time. I mean, and since. Probably day 1 of open QA, I'm not sure how far back that goes probably. Maybe 5 years, maybe longer. Cool. Any other questions about the current state of things. Then let's talk about the future. I have a question. Yes, it's already ship in beta, right. Yes, yes. That's the current status is ship in beta. Yes, exactly. And we have quite a few people running the beta already people are excited. Yeah, so some of the future things we're looking at against our compression. Maybe some cool backup stuff. What about encryption? Encryption is, yeah, interesting topic. So right now, but our first can of course run on. DM crypt looks slash DM crypt, just like the same encryption we use right now for currently exactly what that's for. Sorry. I meant to mute my button, but didn't get to it and fine. So there is a plan and some work that's going on for. There's work going on for native encryption in butter fast and the native encryption uses. The kernel has something called FS crypto. And this is part of the work that was done to get X for an F2FS native encryption and they pulled it out of X for and F2FS and made an API kernel level. API for this that exports still uses an F2FS still uses and butter fast will use. So we are going to get native encryption. At some point, I don't have a timeframe for that. I, you know, I think that anything development wise in any file system is. An idea rather than a firm plan and that may also be true more so with butter a fast. The idea is that these patches should land by the end of this year and it's going to be a resources. Competition to make sure that the FS crypto folks evaluated and and review it and give feedback and, you know, whenever it gets merged and then. It'll need to be in upstream production of probably before we see it in a mainline kernel. So if I had to guess. You know, maybe about this time next year. We know if their plans for that to be able to be added after the fact like on an existing system. Yeah. Yes. Yes, sure. So the reason why I'm confident in saying that is because that's already the case with compression and all the other features in butter a fast. There are very few things in butter a fast that require. A new creating a new file system. It's possible to just set a feature flag for most of the features that have been added after the fact. An example of that is Z standard compression. And the pathway the code path for the native encryption is going to share the same code path is compression. So what I expect is that there will be a feature flag that gets set and that feature flag will simply tell the kernel. You know what the minimum kernel is needed to be able to read and or write to the file system. So maybe that there will be old kernels that can read the file system but not write to it. If it has encryption enabled because it will be possible to have sub volumes that are not encrypted and some sub volumes that are encrypted. So the ones that are not encrypted could be read by an older kernel and then the newer ones are I'm sorry the encrypted ones would need a minimum kernel version that supports the native encryption routine. So yeah set the feature flag create a new sub volume and then whatever the commands will end up being to set a key. And then encrypts the sub volume. So that's interesting, both for people who want to change to that later, but also, you know, when I got my new Lenovo think pad with Fedora pre installed on it, it was awesome to boot it up with Fedora pre installed. And then because I wanted to have it encrypted the first thing I did was reinstall so being able to instead have at that first boot say, do you want to encrypt your system back here give a passphrase. That would be awesome. Yep. And it's interesting actually also you're talking about the compression flags. So, yeah, if, you know, there are different algorithms for compression that have different trade offs and different advantages. So, if I decide one, like I'm not necessarily committed to that forever. If somebody comes up with an awesome new compression thing and gets that into the kernel I could actually just change and then new files would be compressed with the new thing and old files eventually converted over as they get access and rewritten. That's pretty cool. Correct. Yeah, the compression is at a. I'm not sure exactly what to call it. I'll just say it's at a block level. There's a block size for compression of 128 kilobytes. And so a given file plausibly will have some blocks that are compressed and some blocks that are not compressed. So, but our fast has the capacity on a per block level to have different, whether compression is on or off or what algorithm happens to be used. So, all that's baked into the metadata for that file, and it doesn't flinch. Yeah. Oh, so you could even have a file that has multiple compression for different blocks that's, that's disturbing, but all right. Yeah. This is super, super nerdy. Can you mark certain files as wanting to have bigger blocks compressed or is it always just the same block size. It's always the same block size. That's not exposed to the user at the moment. It's 128 kilobytes at the right now. There are probably some reasons why that's the case. I'm not sure what they are. I have some use cases from an old job where that would have been nice to set, but they can be smaller to me. They can be smaller than 128. So, Larger is what I want. Sometimes it's much larger blocks. You can get a little better compression, but yes, that's okay. That's probably again, not important to most people. All right. What other, what other future plans are there that you want to talk about what else and what else should we know as the council. Um, yeah, there are, there just, it's like this long list of features and what ifs. One of those that we're kind of looking forward to is, is while we've talked about encryption, we've talked about compression. One that I'm particularly excited about also is a little bit nerdy. And that is the resource isolation that we gain with Butterfest on the IO side. So resource control is a really interesting, highly technical. I understand maybe 1% of it. But there's this competition for resources. The resources being memory, CPU and IO. And using C groups of E2, we're able to provide upper and lower limits. So it's possible to assign a minimum IO, a minimum memory and minimum CPU to, for example, resources that we care about like the desktop itself. And say that, that those resources, that minimum resources guaranteed no matter what else is going on on the system. So if you have a particularly aggressive process, it could be a web browser, it could maybe with a runaway tab and script in it, it could be a compile that you're doing. We'll be able to do a better job of, of reserving a minimum amount of resources for the desktop to make sure that it stays responsive. And Butterfest is a part of that plan. It's not a required part of it, but it helps make that experience better. So that's something that I'm looking forward to and that's ongoing. I think some of that work has been happening in Fedora since Fedora 30. And now that we're moving to Butterfest, we'll get the IO part of that figured out. Cool. Yeah. So at some point, you know, the, the feature that we, we added at Fedora 32, nothing, nothing ever stays the same in Fedora it seems, at least not for too long. And Fedora 32 was early OOM, early OOM, OAM stands for out of memory. So we have a user space out of memory manager, very simplistic that will kill off wayward programs that are using too many resources. And it's likely that that will be set aside in a future, near future, Fedora, because of this resource control work, because we won't need to be killing off programs. We'll just say, hey, you get fewer resources. You're just going to go really, really slow, but the desktop is going to still be responsive and you'll be able to, you know, use applications.  There may be some more intelligence. There may be, we're looking forward to system D, OOMD. That's a little bit off topic for this, for today, but it loops and feeds back into the resource control, which Butterfuss is a part of. So there will be another, another round of features, as is always the case in Fedora. Cool. Well, thank you very much, Chris. I really appreciated this. I learned some details that I hadn't thought about before. So that's cool. And it's good to have those because there's a lot of enthusiasm around Fedora 33 and the interviewers are all asking me about Butterfuss. So I hope other people watch this video and learn things. And I also learned myself so I can help talk better about the work you've done. And thank you for this and thank you for all the effort you put into making this happen. You're welcome. Thank you. And thanks to the Fedora community for making it possible. Of course, that's always the case. Bye, everybody. Bye.