If I do a very slow shearing of the sample, what is going to happen? During shearing also the pore water pressure will be 0, why? Drain condition, all my walls are open, correct? So that means during consolidation pore water pressures are 0, during slow shearing the pore water pressures are 0. In other words, the total u is 0, that is why this is known as effective stress analysis. Now if the pore water pressures are 0, what is going to happen? Sigma 3 will be equal to sigma 3 and sigma 1 will be equal to sigma 1, clear? Now things are simple, if I plot it on a Mohr circle, so if you have tau versus sigma, what is going to happen? This is the first sample, this is the second sample, this is the third sample, sigma 3 is increasing and if I plot on this scale sigma 1, sigma prime also effective stresses and if I join this curve and if I depict it as tau equal to C plus sigma tan phi, now this is your Mohr Coulomb envelope. In the effective form what is going to happen? Because the pore water pressures are 0, the effective Mohr Coulomb envelope will superimpose on this Mohr Coulomb envelope also, that means tau will remain as same as tau prime, normally we do not write tau prime because this is your sigma 1 minus sigma 3, clear? So this will remain same as sigma 1 prime minus sigma 3 prime. So tau prime will also be equal to C prime plus sigma prime tan of phi prime but in reality prime indicates effective, effective is nothing but sigma minus u, remember the effective stress analysis which we have done. So because the pore water pressures are 0, the parameters which we are going to get from this test are going to be effective stress parameters, under what circumstances we are going to do this test. Stability of the dam for after 100 years, dams are normally constructed not for 20 years or 10 years or 5 years, you want to see whether it is going to be stable after 100 years. That means in 100 years I am sure the boundary conditions will develop because of the material which you are selecting that the drainage is going to take place completely, correct? And consolidation is going to occur. So ideal candidate test for to be performed on stability, long-term stability of dams are then dams. Somebody had asked this question we were talking about the heterogeneous and homogeneous dam cross sections and the seepage analysis, you know how do you select the slopes of the downstream and upstream sides of the dam, clear? Which one is going to be more critical? Look at this, the moment I have filled the water over here, you have already studied the seepage theory. Now what I am doing? I am clubbing the effect of seepage on the stability of the dam, which is being governed by the shear strength parameters. So this becomes a natural complicated problem. So truly speaking if I say that this is the critical section about with the failure of the downstream dam is going to take place, all the seepage force is going to act on this slip surface, clear? And this process is going to be dependent upon the way the pore water pressure is developing and the way the pore water pressure is getting dissipated. So when you are talking about the stability of the downstream side, which is very critical as compared to upstream side, because upstream side what is happening? Water column gives a stability to the, this side of the dam upstream. So that means for analyzing the downstream slopes, we have to do this test, CD test, is this part clear? Now let us take the second case, the second type of testing is CU test. Now as the name suggests the first one is consolidated and U corresponds to undrained, clear? So you are doing a triaxial testing in a 50-50 margins. You are allowing the sample first to consolidate at a certain sigma c, but you are shearing it in a very, very fast rate of shearing earthquake, there is no time for the material to understand how it has to behave, clear? So the fast testing is allowed to study the response of the systems which are not going to consolidate during their lifetime. So when the buildings are being constructed, you should go and see there is a natural formation and what do we do? We lay the foundation here first and then slowly and slowly the first floor, second floor, third floor keep coming over here, clear? So normally the curing time is 27 days, footings are very, very heavy in size and dimensions and the weight. Because of the self-weight of the footing, this soil is going to consolidate a bit, but after that what happens? The rate of construction is very rapid and you are not allowing soil mass to get consolidated particularly when the boundary conditions are not very conducive, both side clays, clear? So if I want to simulate this type of situation, the best test would be CU test and then I can measure the pore-water pressure and I can make it CU prime, that is the beauty. So in short, the first component remains same, uc is 0 under sigma 3. Now one thing which I have not written over here and I would like to correct is when you say shearing, what we have to do is, if this is sigma 3, I have to apply sigma f and this sigma f is also sometimes depicted as sigma d which is equal to sigma 1 minus sigma 3. So this is shearing process, that means after consolidating it, I am shearing it by applying a deviator stress, so this sigma d is known as a deviator stress, clear? And deviation is from sigma 3, so that means the axial stress you are applying in such a manner that the deviation between the sigma 1 minus sigma 3 becomes sigma d, that is what I wanted to explain, you cannot apply sigma 1 here, exactly. So the best thing is that truly speaking, this is the sigma d which is getting transmitted from this which is equal to sigma 1 minus sigma 3. So now you can compute sigma 1 from here which will be equal to sigma d plus sigma 3, clear? This is how we read this. What in short this indicates is having done the consolidation test, if I shear it, sigma d is increasing and the failure occurs, so this becomes your sigma f, clear? So once you have done the consolidation, this part remains in correct, so that means the sigma d corresponding to sigma f at which the failure is taking place will be the deviation with respect to sigma 3 of sigma d which is sigma 1 minus sigma 3. So what you have to do is starting from sigma 3, you have to apply this deviator stress to compute sigma 1, fine? So this component remains in, a UC test can, CU test can also be done to obtain the CV value. The second part is different, from this point onwards we shear it in a fast manner and fastness is in the form of undrained test. The rate of strain is so high that it does not get time to get, you know, drained. So this becomes an undrained test, till strain is going to cause the failure. You remember this, what is the significance of this? At this point, zero strain, axial strain, zero shear stress. As you move along this axis, what happens? The shear stress picks up, clear? And then ultimately what happens? The more and more axial strain, the more and more shear strength is getting mobilized and then the failure comes at this point, that is the answer to your question. So at this stage, if I say that this is sigma d which is sigma 1 minus sigma 3 and sigma 3, what will happen to the pore-water pressures? Because this is undrained test, Ud will not be equal to zero, there will be some value. Now what should I do with this? This is where we define a parameter A. So the A parameter becomes a pore-water pressure parameter. So the first time I am introducing a term A parameter which is a sort of a efficiency parameter. What is the efficiency and of what? The efficiency is how much cause and effect has been created. So what is the cause? Shearing, clear? And what is the effect? The pore-water pressure. So that means how much pore-water pressure gets developed for a given sigma 3? These are all efficiency parameters. Where I am going to use this term A parameter, you see ultimately all classification system I have forgotten now, I do not need any of those fine grained, coarse grained, organic material, non-organic material, specific gravity, density, nothing I need. What I need is how the system is corresponding or is responding. If I change sigma 3, how much pore-water pressure will develop and this becomes an efficiency parameter, clear? And this is nothing but A. So I can write now the pore-water pressure is equal to A into sigma 3. Once you have got the pore-water pressure, your effective stresses can be obtained. So that means your sigma 3 will be equal to sigma 3-UD and normally we write this as failure because A is at failure. The pore-water pressure is going to be a function of sigma 3 unless you achieve the failure, clear? And then sigma 1 prime will be equal to sigma 1-UD at failure. Effective stress develop also from here also. The parameters which you are going to get from here like here we had C, C prime, pi, phi prime and they were same because the pore-water pressure was 0. In this case what we are going to get is we are going to get C, C-U and phi C-U is a special category of the parameters which we use C, Consolidant drain, phi, Consolidant drain. And I think you can understand because this was 100% torture to the sample, this is 50%. Third we have to create is a situation where it is 0% torture. So that becomes your UU test. I will talk about this slightly later. Let me complete this story first. Is this part okay? Tractile testing is more of a philosophy rather than numerical modeling of something. When you do with the materials is more of a philosophy, it is the mathematics is only a tool which we utilize to represent parameters. What all can be done with C-U test? It is a very interesting test. So I hope you can understand if I am doing a C-U test what is going to happen to this share envelope? All these more circles are going to shift on the left hand side. So that means the first circle will shift on the left hand side and this is UD okay. So once all the circles shift on the left hand side because of the pore-water pressure that is one of the situations. There are possibilities that UD might be negative and the entire set of more circles will shift on the right hand side. So we will talk about that. Anyway so under general circumstances if you have a situation like this what is going to happen your envelope is going to get shifted and this becomes your effective stress envelope. So by conducting a test we have got different types of parameters depends upon me here. So when you do your blood test you know there are several parameters which are listed on the blood test report which you cannot make out. You go to a doctor you see everything is everything is alright you start taking this dose and this dose and do not eat this and do not drink this finished why because you must have seen some parameters and based on this he is recommending a future course of remediation clear or treatment is this part clear right. Now let me introduce here a concept of pre-consolidation pressure.


In previous video, we have studied how to generate the global matrix. Now in this video, we will substitute the local stiffness matrix into the global stiffness matrix and we will calculate the deformation stress strain of the system. Learning Outcomes At the end of this session, the learner will be able to solve uniaxial element problem analytically. I will substitute the values of k 1, k 2 and k 3 in the global stiffness matrix. So, I will formulate it here k equals to k 1 value of k 1 is 10 raise to 5 is common. So, I will write it 10 raise to 5 here. So, now just add the stiffness element stiffness matrix of first element this to this. So, it will be 3 minus 3 minus 3 3. So, now just look at here we will add k 2.  So, k 3 plus 0.6 minus 0.6 minus 0.6 and 0.6 other elements are 0. So, this is global stiffness matrix. Now, the formula is to calculate the we will find the deformation at the 4 nodes. So, the formula is vector matrix of the force that is F equals to the global stiffness matrix that is k into vector matrix of deformation that is u. So, for first node the deformation is u 1 for second node it is u 2 similarly u 3 and u 4 for third and fourth node respectively. So, we will write the we will expand this matrix matrices here.  So, equals to the global stiffness matrix is 3 minus 3 0 0 minus 3 4 and this will be minus 1 0 0 minus 1 1.6 minus 0.6 ok. So, 0 0 minus 0.6 and 0.6 into the deformation at first node that is u 1, u 2, u 3 and u 4. So, now we will substitute the force values of forces and the deformation that we know ok. So, as you will see here we have constrained or fixed supported this end of the beam. So, at this node, this node the reaction will be 0 and all the reaction will be applied at this particular node ok or key point and the deformation at this node is 0 ok. The load is 50 kilo Newton, but the deformation is 0 here. So, we will just substitute the values here. So, this will be 50 kilo Newton. So, I will write only 50 0 0 and the force at fourth node is also 50 into 10 dash to 3 equals to we have forgot the 10 dash to 5 here of stiffness matrix 10 dash to 5. So, we will write it again 3 minus 3 0 0 minus 3 4 minus 1 0 0 minus 1 1.6 into now the reaction or deformation sorry the deformation at first node is 0 and we will calculate it for u 2, u 3 and u 4. Just formulate the equations now just multiplied by the matrix multiplication we need to know here. So, we will calculate we will form the simultaneous equations just multiplied by multiplied this matrix by this matrix ok. So, we will calculate here this will be 0 and then minus 3 u 2 equals to or into 10 dash to 5 remaining as usually I forgot here equals to the 50 into 10 dash to 3. This will be first equation our then for the second equation will be this 0 4 into u 3 u 2 minus u 3 into 10 dash to 5 equals to 0. This will be second equation then 0 u 2 minus u 2 here.  Now we can solve the simultaneous equation on the calculator and we will get the values here.  You can now calculate the strain here the formula for this is deformation now the strain the formula is change in length upon original length.   So, it will be 8 into 10 dash to minus 4. Similarly, for second element it will be 250 sorry the strain it is we will write formula here u 3 minus u 2 upon l 2. So, after substituting you will get the value 1.25 into 10 dash to minus 4 and for third element it will be 2.8 into 10 dash to minus 4. And then from this strain and deformation we can calculate the stress developed. So, stress will be sigma 1 equals to Young's modulus into strain. So, that will be 2 into 10 dash to 5 into 8 into 10 dash to minus 4. So, it will be 167 Newton per mm square for sigma 2 it will be 250 Newton per mm square and for sigma 3 for the third element it will be 555.53 Newton per mm square. So, in next video we will solve the similar problem in Epidel and Wackbench. So, these are the references. Thank you.


The five pillars that I like to incorporate in all of my coaching programs in the alcohol free lifestyle is coaching, community, fun, accountability, and skin in the game. And those five things, all those five pillars working in tandem can successfully get people long-term power over their drinking habits without having to live in shame, without having to go to an AA meeting, sit in a circle, and surrender to a higher power and say, wow, I've messed up my life. No, let's focus on what you will do rather than what has happened. Let's make it fun, let's make it aspirational, let's have a community, let's have a coach, let's have skin in the game, and let's look at getting long-term power over drinking habits as something to strive for, and as something to be really fun and energetic, and we can live in that creation mode where we get to have health, wealth, love, and happiness.


Two long-standing mineral rights leases that are critical for a large proposed underground copper nickel mine in northeastern Minnesota will not be renewed. The decision announced today by the Department of the Interior and the Department of Agriculture strikes a serious blow to a proposed twin metals project near Ely. The agencies also announced other steps to protect the Boundary Waters watershed from future mining projects. In a statement, the agency cited, quote, broad concerns from thousands of public comments and input about potential impacts of mining on the wild wilderness areas, watershed, fish and wildlife, and the nearly $45 million dollar recreation economy, end quote. Twin metals sued the federal government in September to force the renewal of the leases. The company says it can mine without damaging the wilderness while creating hundreds of jobs in a needed area that's currently struggling economically in the state. If you've enjoyed this segment of Lakeland News, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution to Lakeland Public Television.


Government is best that governs least, Mr. Speaker, says the wonderful Henry David Thoreau. We at our side of the house believe that existing governments limit people's ability to actually decide what they want to do in their lives. And this is entirely harmful to the way that they are able to live those lives in the long run. We think it's essential that these people are able to determine what they want to do with their lives without any kind of imposed framework that existing governments put on. So I've got a fairly lengthy model here, so I encourage everyone to pay attention.


Hello everyone, this is Alice Gao. In this video, I'm going to talk about performing probabilistic inference in a Bayesian network. Specifically, I want to explain why it is more efficient to compute the probability using the variable elimination algorithm than using the joint distribution. One reason for constructing a Bayesian network is to calculate probabilities. There are many probabilities that we may want to calculate. For example, for the home scenario, we may want to calculate the prior probability for the alarm to go off, without knowing anything else. Also, one day, both Watson and Gibbon call Mr. Holmes. Given both costs, Mr. Holmes may want to calculate the probability that a burglary is happening. We already have one way of calculating any probability. We can recover the joint probability distribution using the Bayesian network, and then use the distribution to calculate any prior or conditional probability. In the next video, I will introduce the variable elimination algorithm, which we can use to calculate a probability more efficiently. My goal in this video is to show you why the variable elimination algorithm is more efficient than calculating a probability using the joint distribution. Let's consider the Holmes Bayesian network again. Suppose that we want to answer this question. Given that Dr. Watson and Mrs. Gibbon both call Mr. Holmes, what is the probability that a burglary is happening? This seems like a question that Mr. Holmes would want to answer. To answer this question, we need to calculate the probability of burglary, given that Watson and Gibbons are both true. To write down the expression, I need to introduce some new notation. So far, we've used uppercase letters to represent both the random variable and its values. Capital B means that B is true, and not capital B means that B is false. Let's use a new notation to distinguish the random variable and its values. In the new notation, capital B represents the random variable only. Small b and not small b represent its values true and false respectively. Sometimes we may also use the small b to represent an undetermined value of the random variable. Using this notation, we want to calculate the probability of capital B given small w and small g. Let's divide the variables into three categories. First, the query variables refer to the variables that we're interested in. They are the ones that appear before the bar in the probability. For our example, there's one query variable, b. Second, the evidence variables are the ones for which we observe their values. For this example, w and g are the evidence variables. Third, the remaining variables are called the hidden variables, since they do not appear in the probability expression. For our example, the hidden variables are e, a, and r. To calculate this probability, we need to rewrite it using the quantities from the Bayesian network. Whenever we want to calculate a conditional probability, it's always a good idea to convert it into an expression involving joint probability. Let's use the product rule in reverse and write p of b given w and g as p of b n w n g over p of w n g. Next, let's rewrite the denominator to be in a similar form as a numerator. We'll use the sum rule in reverse and introduce b into the expression. p of w n g is equal to p of b n w n g plus p of not b n w n g. Given our derivation so far, calculating p of b given w n g is equivalent to calculating the joint probability of b w n g. This joint probability doesn't contain all the variables, so we cannot calculate it directly using the Bayesian network yet. Let's introduce all the other variables into the expression. We'll use the sum rule in reverse and introduce the hidden variables e, a, and r. Here's the sum. Each term in the sum is a joint probability over all six variables. Now, we're ready to use the Bayesian network to calculate the joint probability. The joint probability is a product of six terms. Each term is a conditional probability for one variable in the network. This expression illustrates how we can calculate the probability using the joint distribution. First, we'll calculate all the joint probabilities using the Bayesian network. After that, we'll sum out the hidden variables to get the joint probability over b w n g only. Finally, we'll use the product rule in reverse to calculate the conditional probability. Later on, I want to compare this approach to the variable elimination algorithm. To do this, I need to measure its efficiency. One way to measure its efficiency is to count the number of additions and multiplications we need to perform to calculate this expression. Here's a question asking you to count the number of operations. The purpose of this question is not to get the number exactly right. That's why the options are ranges rather than individual numbers. Rather, the purpose is to get a rough sense of how many operations are required to calculate this expression. If the number of operations seems large, then the approach is likely not very efficient. Pause the video and calculate this number yourself. Then, keep watching. The correct answer is D. We need to perform 47 operations. Let me talk through the process briefly. There are three nested summations over three binary variables. So we're summing up eight terms. In each term, we have to perform five multiplications. That's five multiplied by eight, which is 40 multiplications in total. After that, we need to add the eight terms using seven additions. So the total number of operations is 47. Let me make some observations about this expression. In fact, we have to perform many duplicate computations when we calculate this expression. For example, p of b appears in every term, but it doesn't involve any of the three hidden variables. You can think of p of b as a constant. For each of the eight terms, we need to perform one multiplication for p of b. That's eight multiplications. If we take p of b outside of all the summations, they will only need to perform one multiplication for p of b. The simple change could have saved us from doing seven operations. We can make a similar observation for e, a, and r. Take r as an example. Most terms do not have r in it. Yet, these terms are inside the summation over r. So we have to calculate the product of these terms twice, once for when r is true and once for when r is false. If we take these terms and take them outside of the summation over r, we only need to calculate their product once. So far, we can calculate the probability using the joint distribution. Let's find a way to calculate the expression more efficiently. The key idea is that we only want to perform a summation over terms that involve the variable being summed over. If a term does not involve the variable that we're summing over, we should take that term outside of the summation. For our expression, this idea is equivalent to moving the summation to the right as much as possible. These changes will help reduce the number of operations required. Let's try it out. The right-most summation is over r. The only term involving r is p of r given e. Let's move the summation all the way to the right until it is only over p of r given e. The next summation is over a. Let's gather all the terms involving a, p of a given b and e, p of w given a, and p of g given a. Put these terms together to the right as much as possible. Next, we'll move the summation to the right until it is over these three terms only. The final summation is over e. The additional term involving e is p of e. We will move the summation to the right until it is at the left of p of e. This is equivalent to taking p of b and moving it out of all the summations. There is one more simplification we can do. Take a look at the right-most term, the summation over r of p of r given e. What is the value of this term? Think about this for a few seconds, then keep watching. The right-most term is equal to 1 based on the definition of a conditional probability, so we can remove it from the product. Take a look at our final expression. If we use the variable elimination algorithm, we would end up calculating the probability using this expression. Let me ask you the same question as before. What is the number of additions and multiplications required to calculate this expression? Again, the purpose is not to get the number exactly right. This number gives us a rough sense of the algorithm's efficiency. If the variable elimination algorithm is more efficient than the previous approach, we should get a smaller number. Pause the video and calculate this number yourself, then keep watching. The correct answer is b. We need to perform 14 operations. Here's a brief explanation. For the inner sum, we need one addition plus four multiplications, so five operations in total. For the next sum, we need one addition plus one multiplication plus five operations per term for two terms, that's 13 operations in total. Finally, we need one more multiplication. The total is 14 operations. Again, the exact number is not the point here. Note that by moving the summations inward to the right, we reduce the number of operations by a lot, from 47 to 14. Let me summarize some important ideas. We want to calculate the probability. Our first approach is to calculate it using the joint probabilities. We begin by recovering the joint probabilities from the Bayesian network. Next, we'll sum up all the hidden variables one by one. This approach works, but is quite inefficient since it performs a lot of duplicate computations. To make it more efficient, the idea is to perform each summation only over terms that involve the variable being summed over. This is the high-level idea that leads to the variable elimination algorithm. We transform the expression using this idea. First, we chose an order of the hidden variables. For each hidden variable, we found all the terms involving the hidden variable and multiplied them together. Then, we summed out the hidden variable from the product. This is what we're doing by moving the summation over the hidden variable to the right as much as possible. Repeat this for every other hidden variable until all of them are summed out. This leads to our final expression. Calculating this expression is more efficient since it requires a much smaller number of operations. That's everything for this video. Let me summarize. After watching this video, you should be able to do the following. Calculate the probability by using the joint distribution. Calculate the probability by using the high-level idea of the variable elimination algorithm. Explain the high-level idea of the variable elimination algorithm. Explain why it leads to a more efficient approach of calculating the probability. Thank you very much for watching. I will see you in the next video. Bye for now.


The Coronado-based guided-missile destroyer USS John Paul Jones will swap home ports with USS Lake Erie in Hawaii this summer. The planned move will provide updated Aegis capabilities to the region. USS Preble is also leaving San Diego and will replace the Pearl Harbor-based frigate USS Ruben James. Ruben James was the last guided-missile frigate home port in Hawaii and was decommissioned last summer after nearly 30 years of naval service. If you used your Navy or Marine cash cards to shop a target between November 27th and December 15th, you are not liable for any transactions that occurred because of unauthorized access. The affected cards will be replaced by January 31st. During that time period, computer hackers breached encrypted data from 40 million target store shoppers. Those affected have been identified and accounts are being monitored for unusual activity. Read more about these stories at navy.mil. From all hands update, thanks for watching.


But you gotta realize that when this whole thing does happen, there's gonna be a moment of euphoria, right? There's always a moment of euphoria right at the top and right at the bottom. And it's when it's, it's after the fact that, hey, what's up everybody? Ricky Caruth here and I'm coming to you from my office at my house and I'm here today to prepare you for the massive market shift that we are going to experience in the near future. And right after I get through filming this, I'm gonna film another video on why I believe that this year we're gonna lose more real estate agents in the industry than we ever have before in history. Now right now as we speak, I'm really getting that 2004 feeling when prices were at all time highs, gas hit $100 a barrel, which we just saw. We've got zero inventory, inflation is through the roof, interest rates are rock bottom. And we have more real estate agents than we've ever had in history. Now, if you've been in the business like me for 20 plus years, okay, you've been through so many of these market cycles, you can see them coming from a mile away, totally telegraphed, all right? You see the signs, you see the writing on the wall, it's super crystal clear of what is going to come. Now, timing is another issue. Nobody can necessarily time when things are going to happen and when the shift is going to start making its way and how bad it's going to actually be, but we do know that things are going to change. That is something I can tell you for a fact. And my message today is pretty clear and simple, and that is this. Right now, as we speak with prices at all time highs, you need to be squeezing this market for every last drop that you can contacting every property owner in your market to see who wants to take advantage of these incredibly high prices. Because when the market does shift, it's going to literally take place in one instant, in one moment. And we're going to look back at everything's going to be different and you're going to look back and think, man, I wish I would have. Don't look back and wish you would have, do it right now so that when it does happen, say this is why I did what I did. Now, earlier this month I met with a brokerage in Colorado and I told them exactly what they need to be thinking about moving into the next market cycle. And I want to share that clip with you now. Please put your comments below. Click subscribe. Let me know what in the world I can do to help you and enjoy this clip. The market, right? The market's at all time highs. We're at the highest. Will it go higher? Sure, probably. It's not going to do this forever, though. It's Mother Nature. It's going to come down. People are going to get scared for one reason or another.  There's no speculation happening in the marketplace. Very little in my market and from what I can see, you know, nationwide, there could be some speculation happening. But I would fear to say at today's prices, especially after we went through 2008, we know what happened then, that there's not a lot of people speculating on this market that they can buy something and sell it next year or in six months or even next month and make a profit. So you've got your buyers or end users for the most part. That's a very healthy market.  So we know these people can afford the properties. You don't have a lot of speculation happening. Whereas when the market flips, these people bail like what happened in 2008. So you got to think this is literally the healthiest market we've ever seen at these levels. And this is the highest levels we've ever seen. So you think this market's invincible. Listen, all it takes is something scary enough, right? And devastating enough to just scare people into just sitting tight for a second before this whole thing turns. You think this market can't go down? It can go down, right? And the point of my saying all this is that it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter if it goes down or not.  Okay, so as a new agent, a lot of us start to correlate the market to our success. Like they feel like if the market's down, then the business is unsuccessful during those times. If the market's great, then their business is successful. And it's just so far from the truth, right? Because we get paid on commissions regardless of the price. Prices are going to fluctuate. So our commission rates, commission rates are probably somewhere around all time lows as far as commission rates. But we're making more money per transaction because of the prices, right? So when we have market increases like we had, we're going to see downward pressure on commissions because the dollar amount of those commissions end up being a lot of money, right? So we're still making more per transaction. And when we see the market turn around and go the other way, we'll see commission rates float back up because now we're in a situation where the sellers are more desperate. There's fewer buyers. We're having to work harder to sell the listings. Right now, you just boom, put it out there at sales on a day. I mean, of course, sellers are going to ask for a discount on their commissions because they feel like, you know, we're only having to work one day after we get the listing to get it under contract for this high price. And, you know, so yeah, just, you have to put all this into perspective and realize that you're in the one of the most solid industries out there, right? If technology could take us out, it would have already taken us out. Everything that's come along technology-wise has done nothing but increase our productivity and help us. Zillow, for example, I used to have to, you know, talk to a buyer, learn criteria, search criteria, send them stuff, let them look through it, send me what they want to see out of that list and go through this whole process. Now they call me and say, here's a list of everything you want to see. They just look it up on Zillow or one of these sites. Zillow literally knocked my entire buyer the time I spent with buyers down 20, 30, 40 percent because I don't have to search for the properties anymore. That was incredible, right? A lot of people don't even realize how incredible MLS is because we're born into the industry with MLS. South Africa, Australia, Brazil, they don't have MLS. Those sellers pick eight agents to list their property and whoever finds the buyer first wins. There's no exclusive right to sell. We list properties and put it on MLS and go to sleep and get an offer in 30 minutes. We don't realize how good we have it and all the technology and infrastructure that's in place here in the U.S. is, I don't know how to say it, we're just, it's like we're overly blessed to be in the position that we are, to be in this country, to be a real estate agent and to be in an industry that is so solid that it doesn't matter what the market does, right? Technology does nothing but help us, right? And increase our productivity and it's going to continue to, you know, as we see crypto take a front seat to a lot of this stuff and blockchain. It's going to do nothing but help us over the next 20 years as that becomes a thing. It's going to really help the process. It's going to help us from all angles, but people are still going to need consultation. They're still going to need help through the process. They're still going to need to deal with the inspector, the lender, the title company, the appraiser, all the different things, right? They're going to need someone to help them negotiate the contract. They're going to need to make sure the contract has nothing in it that doesn't leave them hanging out there, any kind of liabilities that might work against their favor. So I'm just excited to see this next chapter of the industry as we move into what I'm calling the fourth quarter of this market. It's got to be, right? Something's got to give and who knows if they'll really raise interest rates.  I'm not out here telling clients, interest rates are going to go up next month, even though that's what they say or this month or in March, they say they're going to raise rates and they, they, they should and they might, but you never know until they do it. They could change their mind that day. They could vote it down, but it is inevitable that it'll happen at some point. And when it does, when you look at the entire, you know, prethera and the situation at hand in our market, in terms of all industries and what's happening, you know, in the world and everything inflation wise and so on and so forth, this market's going to take a massive hit. And where are we going to be right here to catch, to catch it when it comes down? I'm excited about the opportunity of a new market where we have inventory. Can you guys imagine a market of inventory? Can you imagine a market of, of, of properties to sell with a slightly lower prices? How great of a market that's going to be, right? Your sellers are going to have to sell at a cheaper price, but they don't really care because now they're buying at a cheaper price and they've been dying to upgrade for three years now. And they're just motivated to get out of this house and move into another one or you guys may sell a lot of second home properties like I do, same thing. You know, they use those second homes as vacation properties. So even though they don't live there, they still go there and they still see the same walls and the same TV and the same view and they want to upgrade their family grew. They want to upgrade to a bigger house on the mountain or a smaller one, so on and so forth. Then they really haven't had that opportunity until this market loosens up a little bit. It's going to be incredible, but there's going to be less buyers. Let me warn you and it's going to, it's going to have this facade that it's tougher. But the truth is, it's going to be just as tough as now. The only difference is we're going to have options. We're going to have options and it's going to be, in my opinion, I'm just, I love this market and here's my advice and I'll take some questions. You need to squeeze this market for every last drop that you can until it runs out. Prices are so high right now. There is people in your market right now that if you would start reaching out to and trying to find the people who want to take advantage of these insanely high prices and take some money off the table, they're out there and if you would spend more time trying to target subdivisions and complexes to find the people who are like, man, you're right, this market, we've been thinking about it and I'm ready to go. I'm ready to take this money off the table and then see what happens as the market plays out. Maybe it'll go down and I'll rebuy.  I wish I would have went harder because you could be doing three times the business right now if you would just go harder and realize we're in the fourth quarter and the clock is ticking and you need to go as hard as you can to find as many people as you can that want to take advantage. So that's kind of where I am. I'm trying to squeeze it for every last drop right now until it runs out. Maybe it could turn on a dime any day. There's going to be one day where everything changes and then we can't go back to yesterday. That's what happened back in when the market changed dramatically in the mid to late 2000s. It was literally one day where our life was totally different. That's what's going to happen this time. You're going to wake up and it's going to be like, okay, interest rates are here and all my buyers ran away. Now what? Now what? You need to start developing your list of investors. Who wants to take advantage of the fact that this market, we're going to be in the other way around. The buyers are going to be sitting there. Here's the thing. Right now, sellers, you're thinking they don't want to sell because prices are going up, right? So they want to leave money on the table. So they're just going to keep waiting. When the opposite happens, your buyers are going to say the same thing. Well, if I just give it a month, I can buy it cheaper. If I just give it another month, I can buy it at a cheaper price because the market's going to be slowly going the other way, right? So it's at these moments where we kind of hit the peak and everybody knows it, is when, boom, euphoria happens because when all the sellers realize that we did reach the top, that's when they're going to want to put their property on the market. And that's when the market's going to get flooded and demand went down overnight. And we need to be the ones listing those properties, which means when you're out here making calls and communicating with people to talk to as many people as you can. Yeah, we want to find the people that want to take advantage of the market, but let's create relationships with everyone and let them know, hey, when you do decide to do something or we'll watch the market. And when you get ready, you know, I would love to work with you, right? Is it okay if I stay in touch, boom, and be that person that's developing the largest database in town? Because when this thing turns around at its inflection point, that's when everybody's going to call you once. Same thing the other way. When the market goes down, down, down and buyers are saying, well, just give it some time and it'll go down lower. When they realize that that moment right there, when it starts to go back up, that's when they're going to hurry up and buy right there. And we want to have the most relationships in place so that we can take advantage of those two moments. In between those two moments, we're just hustling, trying to build our database and help as many people as we can. The whole thing does happen. There's going to be a moment of euphoria, right? There's always a moment of euphoria right at the top and right at the bottom. And it's after the fact that the general public realizes that we're going the other way. Oh no, I got to hurry before it goes down even more. Same thing with buyers. So yeah, man, I'm just excited to be here and be here with you guys and share my thoughts with you about the market and what's to come and hopefully help you realize how solid of a business we're in and that it's fixing to get real fun.


I'm Marcia Joyner and this is Community Matters. And we have started a series of programs with candidates as far away as Hilo up to Kauai and everything in between. And it is a project so that you, our audience, gets to meet most of the candidates. Of course, we can't do all, but most of them. And so today we are talking to Representative Todd, Chris Todd, from Hilo, not quite South Point, but the Big Island. Pretty close, yeah. Pretty close. In fact, Chris, how close are you to South Point? It's probably 40 or 50 miles. It's about an hour and a half, I think. OK, so you are pretty close. Yeah. So, Chris is a coach and a father was really paramount in this new economic development of Hilo, Hilo Town. So, welcome, Chris, welcome, and tell us about Chris. Sure. Well, thank you for having me here. So a new father. Yes. My wife gave birth a little bit over a month ago. Her name is Ruby Ren Todd. And we also have a Japanese name in there too, because that's, you know, part of my heritage and her. So her Japanese name is Kasumi. And so she came a little bit early.  But everything's going well, perfect health and everything. Can't complain. Most of them are tiny. Yeah, exactly. So she's just starting to round out a little bit now, which is pretty thin, you know, when she's born. But everything's going really well. And so, you know, doing my best to try and balance that and, you know, my legislative responsibilities, coaching, and also my first campaign since I was appointed a couple years ago. So, tell us, you were appointed how and why. Right. So about a little bit over a year and a half ago, my representative, Cliff Suji, passed away and he passed away pretty shortly after the general election. So he had already won, I think it was probably his seventh term, something like that. Yeah. So, you know, obviously it was a very unfortunate circumstance. You know, Rep Suji was a really good man, very genuine person. And so, I had just at that point kind of decided to get involved in politics, you know, mostly because I was really upset with kind of how things were evolving at the national level and wanted to get more involved. But it just happens that the day I was meeting with my family to kind of talk over that day Rep Suji passed away. So I kind of deferred to my parents and my family and they said, put your name in. You're not going to get appointed. Do it anyway. Right. But yeah, do it anyway. If you're interested and it'll be a valuable learning experience. And so, it wasn't expected, but I did get appointed, you know, by Governor Ege and, you know, it's been really rewarding so far through two years. So, now, tell us about the area that you represent, the district. Sure. I think, you know, I don't know if there's like a real good way to describe it, but I guess the way I describe it when I'm back in Hilo is it's everything in Hilo except for Kamwana, which is this kind of Maoka, kind of North Hilo, and Waianaku, which is North Hilo. So, you know, I've heard it described as Hilo proper in a way because you basically have, you know, the downtown kind of core of Hilo, you have Banyan Drive, Keokaha, and Paneva, the two major Hawaiian homesteads, and you have almost all of Waikea in that district. So what are the real issues now? We talked about your economic development and re-ritalization. Tell us what that is. Yeah, so this is something that can be difficult to explain, and it certainly took me a long time over the last two years to really get comfortable with a lot of the concepts involved. So for the last 20 or so years, the Hilo business community has been trying to get a bill like this passed, and the reasons are very complex. But to basically like short story, a lot of local businesses in Hilo were destroyed by the most recent tsunami, and the state forced those businesses to sell their land and to move on to these state leases because they decided you're not going to have any more development in that area, which is reasonable in that tsunami area. So the side effect though is that these leases are capped.  But in Hilo, what that's meant is that we have all these businesses that are in danger of shutting down or moving out of Hilo because they can't extend their leases, and there's no private land available that has that industrial zoning. So this is our attempt to allow for a way for them to extend their lease, but you know, balance that with the public good. So they have to provide a substantial improvement plan, be willing to invest in what's going to be on the order of hundreds of thousands of dollars or more into their property to improving these properties, because right now one of the major problems is if you have ten years or less left on your lease, you can't get any financing from banks. So a lot of the roofs are rusted out, and there's leaks, and a lot of the buildings are really falling apart without that financing. So the bill that the governor signed when it was last week or so, then that allows them more time on the lease. Is that what happened? So basically, we didn't usurp the DLNR's authority because they managed these leases. So businesses can apply for a lease extension, and part of that lease extension process is they need to be willing to commit substantial improvements to their property. And then from that point, DLNR still has the ability to say yes or no. But it does at least give them a way to do that, provided they've been good tenants. They're really like, a lot of these are kind of local institutions. Some of these businesses are well over 100 years old and are under third or fourth generation. So we want to help preserve that and not have these businesses forced out of Hilo. Is that part of the character, keeping the character of Hilo Town? Definitely. Hilo is a really unique place. I think for me, I found this really interesting statistic, which is if you look at our population over the age of 80, 85, it's about 90% Japanese. But if you look at the population at age under 10, it's about 95% mixed. And what that tells me is that you've had a local community there for a really long time, and a lot of the local families have intermarried. People in Hilo have been there for most of their entire lives, if not multiple generations. And we want to try to preserve that small business character of Hilo. We don't want big box stores to just come in and run over our community that way. So this is a way to preserve that and allow these longer extensions. Now, do you have other than the Mary Monarch? Other tourists? I know the Main Street Project, I remember that. Yeah, I think tourists to visit Hilo, they like it. It has a small town feel to it. We have, obviously it's a very beautiful place, it's very green, there's a lot of waterfalls and that sort of thing. But what we've struggled with is historically, and especially in recent years, is we don't have the hotel room capacity. So even for an event like Mary Monarch, those hotel rooms are booked out months in advance. So a lot of times visitors, instead of having a lot of that money flow into the Hilo economy, they're staying in Waikoloa or staying in Kona, or only coming over for a day or two. So that's another effort that's kind of tied to this is we're trying to find a way to kind of revitalize that Banyan Drive area. And that isn't necessarily tied into this legislation, but it's part of that larger conversation. So that's the big picture, I guess, is what it is. Now if you put more hotels, then you would encourage more tourism. What does that do to the character and the small businesses? What happens? And it's definitely a delicate balance. And we're trying our best to preserve our local small town feel while also just allowing for some economic revitalization. So I think the most recent effort, which has been very positive, is that we had a new lessee for what's now called the Grand Nani Loa Hotel. And that's a hotel that when I was a little kid, it was already old, but it was good. And over the last 20 or so years, it really fell in disrepair. A lot of the rooms, I think, I believe an entire wing was basically just inoperable. So now that we have a new lessee who's willing to commit substantial money into improving it, it's still maintained the character of that hotel. It's the same footprint. But now it's very nice and tourist friendly. And they've done a good job of tying that into some of our local culture also. So it's delicate, and we don't want to go too far in that direction. But we do need a little bit more of that economic development that we currently have. They always show the Queen Lilio Kalani Gardens.  So where is that in relationship to Hilo? So it's kind of, I guess it's not in the center, because it's on the coast. But it's really central to my district, down to Hilo. And it's right next to Ben. It's part of Benning Drive, basically. So you have our two major hotels, which are small for anywhere else in the state. And you have huge Lilio Kalani Gardens, which is also next to this area called Coconut Island. And that's where everyone goes and swims when they're little kids and that kind of stuff. So part of the larger conversation, because we want this to be a big picture idea, is I personally like to see Lilio Kalani Gardens expanded. Right now, if you cross the street, there's a driving range that's not really used very often. And we have a golf course that's not really used very often. So I think there's an opportunity, as part of that economic development, maybe we have an additional hotel in that area. But as a way to balance that out, we really expand Lilio Kalani Gardens, which is where everyone goes to walk their dogs and have picnics and that sort of thing. So what would that do if you expand it to tourism? And I think where I'm going with that is that almost every other part of the state, people are complaining, yes, we need tourism. However, it does something to the footprint. So how do you feel about that? If you expand, then what? Sure. I think when we look at the statewide, I think we're probably reaching near that capacity. I think when I talk to people who've been around longer than I have, 10 million was always seen as kind of a theoretical limit. And we're very close to that. But I do believe that there's an opportunity, maybe selfishly for Hilo, to take some of that tourist population and just shift it a little bit. It doesn't need to be dramatic, but anything would be helpful. But if we expand that capacity, events like Mary Monarch have an opportunity to grow and to really flourish because we have better accommodations and it can be perpetuated in a kind of more positive way. We need to take a break. And when we come back, I would like to talk about the other parts of the economy and the small businesses and what have you. So, we'll be right back. Do you watch my show on Tuesdays at one called Out of the Comfort Zone? I sang this song to you because I think you either are cool or have the potential to be seriously cool. And I want you to come watch my show where I bring in experts who talk all about easy strategies to be healthier, happier, build better relationships and make your life a success. So come sit with the cool kids at Out of the Comfort Zone on Tuesdays at one. See you there. Hello, my name is Stephanie Mock and I'm one of three hosts of Think Tech Hawaii's Hawaii Food and Farmer series. Our other hosts are Matt Johnson and Pamai Weigert and we talk to those who are in the fields and behind the scenes of our local food system. We talk to farmers, chefs, restaurateurs and more to learn more about what goes into sustainable agriculture here in Hawaii. We are on at Thursdays at 4 p.m. and we hope we'll see you next time. I'm Marcia Joyner and this is Community Matters. This is part of a series that Think Tech is doing as we talk to the candidates who are running for office and that are in the primary, which is August 11. So we're talking to candidates from Hilo to Kauai and everything in between. And today we are talking to Chris Todd from Hilo. So Chris, we were talking all about Hilo and most people think of the Mary Monarch. That's, when you say Hilo, that's what everybody else thinks. And honestly, if you don't book now, you can't get a flight in March. It just doesn't happen. People come from everywhere, bring their products to sell from all over Hawaii anyway. They bring their products to sell. What does that do to the local people and the small businesses? Are some of those vendors small businesses? Yeah. I think it's a pretty good blend. I would say most, probably a pretty big majority of the products that are offered. We have all of these local craft fairs and we have a lot of food vendors, not necessarily at the Mary Monarch, but at these kind of attached events nearby. Well, that's what I'm going to carry over. Yeah. So I would say most of that ties back into East Hawaii. There's a lot of local businesses, whether they're selling fabrics or little crafts, necklaces, but also we have Sig Zane, who has, this is obviously a very big time of year for them. And this past opportunity, this past year, Sig Zane is a local designer. Oh. Oh, the pretty one. Yeah, exactly. That one, yeah. Very, very vibrant fabrics, that sort of thing. So this past year, I actually went to Sig Zane. They have like this kind of product launch the week of Mary Monarch and I mean, it's pretty impressive. I don't even, it's probably guaranteed as a fire code violation or something, but everyone's packed into that store trying to buy the newest offerings, that sort of thing. So it's a very exciting time and we don't get a lot of that in Hilo outside of Mary Monarch for this kind of, that kind of excitement. But also, yeah, you have a lot of local food trucks. I know that I used to run a business right next to Mary Monarch. I ran Sui San Fish Market and Mary Monarch Week is a big week for us too. We try to tie in, you know, we do like a local Hawaiian plate and offer special sales, that sort of thing, because it's really an opportunity for a lot of people around the state to discover your product, but very beneficial. Now, of course, I would be remiss if we didn't ask you about the volcano and its effects on Hilo town. First of all, for most people, they don't have a sense. Well, the big island is the big island because it's big. So how far are you from Puna? Sure. So my district, which is pretty, you know, tight for big island standards, it's about, I mean, it's probably only about five to 10 miles away from Puna, but the actual flow is probably closer to 15 miles or so. Now, fortunately for the Hilo side and unfortunately, if you're in Ka'u or Kona or even on Oahu, generally the trade winds take a lot of, you know, take a lot of the, you know, I guess they're calling it the laze or the fog, you know, kind of in the other direction. So we don't get bad, you know, air quality, maybe we get a serious fog once every couple of weeks, but it's really not too bad that way. And obviously, you know, for Hilo, you know, the effects that we're feeling really pale in comparison to the people in Puna, a lot of them who've had their homes destroyed or businesses disrupted and that sort of thing. But, you know, I think on the Hilo end, it's been mostly economic. You know, you're seeing a pretty substantial drop off in, you know, reservations for hotels and restaurants and a lot of that tourist driven business.  And going into this upcoming fall semester, you know, if you're a student at UH Hilo who doesn't want a dorm or something like that, I think you might be in a kind of rough situation that way. So, like I said, it's not life or death like it is, you know, for a lot of people in Puna, but we are seeing a substantial impact that way. Now, what about the foliage with the air quality? Now, I did talk to a couple of people who, their orchid business is gone and it'll take years to come back, your senator has antheriums and that was pretty well damaged. Just from the, what is it? The acid, I think the sulfuric acid or something like that. And it just burns the plants, not by touching, but in the air. So, do you see any of that in Hilo Town? Not so much, you know, I don't think it really extends to our district, but what you are saying, yeah, I mean, depending on some of the numbers, you know, that we've seen thrown around, as much as 80% of our local papaya farms have been pretty irreparably harmed. So that's something that we are starting to work on is trying to find some sort of solution. There is a lot of state land and there might be a way, you know, some mechanism to try and kind of get that, you know, restarted, maybe closer to Hilo and that sort of thing. So that's something we are working on. Because a lot of people, yeah, they're losing their livelihood, or for others, it's their retirement. You know, a close family friend of mine operated a really big koi farm out there, very big aquaculture operation and it's covered in about 30 feet of lava right now. So very big concern. And the papayas and the coffee, well, of course, on the Big Island, there is land. But is it suitable to grow those kinds of things? Yeah, it really depends on where you are on the island. My understanding is that for a lot of these crops, the best soil is a little bit north of Hilo in that Hamakua area. So a lot of that soil is actually, you know, kind of taken from that Hamakua area. And that's what a lot of people in Puna have been using, a lot of the farmers, is that Hamakua soil. So you know, we're very geographically diverse, right? You know, you have Kaua, which is borderline desert, you know, but very suitable for things like coffee, that sort of thing. So that's obviously a concern too with the air quality, potentially like acid rain, is how that's going to impact that coffee crop. You know, Kaua has some of the best coffee in the entire world. So that's something we're looking at. But thankfully, that really high quality soil in Hamakua, pretty much unaffected. So there might be an opportunity to kind of get a lot of these businesses restarted. Yeah, but that's still going to take time to come back. And especially the flowers, because they're ordered all over the world. My preference is, you know, the state steps in in some capacity. Well, you are the state. Exactly, exactly. It feels weird to me. It feels weird. But you are the state, so that's... It's something we're working on, and I think you're going to see something come out of the next month or two. I know that, you know, myself, we are in conversations and kind of getting a lot of people who have a lot of that experience together and trying to find some sort of solution. So you work with the community looking for those solutions. Definitely. And how would they... Well, does that include the Puna people from Puna to work with you, or is this just your district? No, a little bit of both. You know, and this is something that, like I said, you know, Hilo, other than, you know, a drop-off in some of the business, where we're relatively unaffected, you know, when compared to a lot of people in Puna. So I think we've done a pretty good job of letting that, you know, those Puna area legislators, whether they're, you know, Rep. Simon Wenderman-Torra, Senator Ruderman, or even the council members out there, may make sure that, you know, they're taking the lead on this, and we try to address their needs as they come up. How can we provide, you know, some help, that sort of thing? Wasn't it Ruderman that has a farm? One of them has a farm. Yeah, I believe so.  Yes. But I think he has his own that he, in the store, what happened with him? Do you know? I'm not sure on the actual crop end of things, but I know that what he's been looking to do is some form of relief, whether it's a land swap, there is a lot of vacant state land out there. So he's looking for an opportunity to kind of relocate some of these communities that have been wiped out. And so that we still, same thing, maintain that kind of Puna, you know, feel that community, that culture, but, you know, find a way to help these people, you know, get on their feet. Well, for anybody, again, that doesn't know, Puna is bigger than the island of Oahu. And that's a pretty big place. Right, right. And in fact, you could sit us there. So that's a lot of people, a lot of industry that has to be moved. And we thought, we think. Right, right. So you're working with them to make all of this happen. Yeah, and I do think that, you know, we have some exciting opportunities. Very recently, I had someone approach me and we've just started working out some of the details. But like I said, there's a very large piece of state land kind of just outside my district, kind of wedged between Hilo and KL. And there might be an opportunity there to, you know, kind of transplant some of these papaya farmers and that sort of thing. It's not going to be easy and it's going to take resources. But I think we, when we have people that are struggling like that, I feel like that's part of the rule of government, you know? Well, that sounds like a very good rule of government. Usually, we don't hear that. It's so refreshing to hear your, well, most of the people, the legislators I've talked to from a big island, think differently than most politicians. There's still country people, even though they've moved into the state capital. But there's still this aloha, I guess is the right word for the people, the legislators I've met from the big island. Now, you are running for reelection. So I want you to look right into that camera and tell us why we should elect you. Okay. Yeah, I really feel that, you know, the past two years have gone pretty well. I feel like I went in, I got a lot of really good advice. And part of that was go in and be quiet and learn as much as possible. And I think that the other legislators have responded pretty well to that. And I really feel that this year we managed to get a lot done for East Hawaii in particular, whether that's, you know, funding the Puna Ambulance, which I've been pending for a long time, securing, recurring rat lungworm funding for UH Hilo. A lot of the community projects and schools that were funded with a new covered play court for Kapilani Elementary, the Intensive Cardiology Program for Hilo Medical Center. And obviously the KIA bill that we just spoke about. So I feel like I've done my part to start building those relationships. And I feel like Hilo is set up better because of that. And that's my hope at least going forward. Well, Chris, thank you so much for coming. And we wish you the very best in your election. And then the day after, well, two days after the election, give me a call to find out all about it. That sounds good. Thank you so much. Aloha.