Okay, I think I'd like to get some questions from the hall here. We've got a number of spectators who would probably be curious to ask a few questions. Anybody have a question out there? It's dead silence. I guess we've answered all the questions on Okay, right here, yeah Right here My micropos, Monsieur Quentin Nugy. Hey, no, it's not a question. It's just a comment because I wouldn't want Foreign I mean non-French friends to think that Renault Girard's Position represent the position of France of the position of other or let alone of Europe. I think it's a his position And I certainly do not share it and I just wouldn't want people to think that this is a position of France And I think it is You have to take the facts as they are. The vassalization that I'm talking about is a voluntary vassalization and assumed, completely assumed. It's not that America will not use the coercion like against England in 1956 on Sweden, America will not Use the insult or the threat as she did against France on Iraq by saying we are going to Punish France Forget Russia and forgive Germany. No It's a fact, this vassalization is a fact, it is assumed, it is voluntary Is that it will be bad for France? I think that Macron will get, I think that there will be no American attack against the big French companies, whether it's Airbus as it was in the past attacks or Orano or Total etc. I don't think so. I think that the extraterritoriality of the American right will remain, it's just like an extremely strong instrument But I think that on lira, for example, because you asked the question of Macron's visit to the United States I think that Macron has asked for waivers, it's a derogation that the US President can give a law and I think that on I think there will be an American benevolence and I think that Biden was sincere when he said that he would agree with the waivers and I think that if France or other European countries ask for waivers on the IRA, I think that they will get them but my point is very simple, is that the American situation in Europe is today 100 times more favorable to the Americans. The influence is 100 times more important today than it was in October last year, during the last World Policy Conference If there's no question from the audience, I would like to ask my French colleague What is, what are you trying to tell us? Who first of all, who's the enemy? Is the enemy Russia or is the enemy the United States? Is the America's influence going down or is it going up? It seems like if somebody like as we've heard from Stu Eisenstein somebody is re-engaging in Europe in a systematic way and shelling out what will be close to a hundred billion dollars to, to, to, to, to Ukraine Is that a slight, hmm? 100 billion dollars. Well, they've been 54 so far plus another 40. Yeah, whatever. Let's, let's not quibble. 90, 100. Okay What is it? What is your complaint about the United States exactly? Do you want to go back to 1958 and Monsieur de Gaulle? Do you see any chance that another de Gaulle will unify Europe on the French or German or Franco-German? Susirenti, what are we supposed to, concretely, what are we supposed to do in Ukraine at this point? Okay, so I'm going to answer you very clearly. First of all, I gave tribute to the American clairvoyance very clearly in my conference by saying that they even underestimated their success in terms of information, intelligence, which they did not have on the direct war, and in terms of the formation of the Ukrainian forces. That's the first thing. Secondly, I talked about a strategic error, the most serious strategic error in the history of Russia. So I think that, here I said it clearly, but my conference is not on Russia. So is it an attack that violates all international laws, the answer is yes. Are the Europeans of the East right to be afraid of success again? The answer is yes when we have a third. Thirdly, have Americans provoked this war? The answer is no. Since I talked about the maintenance of Geneva in June 2021, where Biden gave an important gift to Putin from Nord Stream 2. So I didn't think about it. The Americans sent William Burns, who went to the Patrushev office in Moscow, they talked on the screen with Putin, William Burns spoke Russian, he openly warned the Russians not to do this nonsense. Here it's quite certain. And so I understand completely, do I criticize Sweden? Do I criticize Sweden and Finland to have joined the time? No, I would have been Swedish or Finnish, I would have done exactly the same. What I'm saying is that there have been many European strategic autonomy that has been expressed by President Macron. There have also been Franco-German velocities to resist the extraterritoriality of the American right. That is to say, when BNP finances exports of underground oil, it is condemned to 9 billion dollars, while Goldman Sachs is not condemned when Goldman Sachs helps the Greek government to make its public accounts to enter the Eurozone. So this is obviously the state of the vassalization. Do I think that President Macron was right to go to Kiev and deliver weapons to Ukraine? The answer is yes, because we cannot accept it on the European soil, but certainly not on the European soil, an aggression like this. The administration asked the capability and the authority to grant waivers on the inflation reduction act. I was in New York discussing with the French ambassador to the US who was part of the delegation of the Macron visit, and he told me that they had a session with Congress where this point was discussed, and he felt, and I'm just quoting the French ambassador, he felt that there was little interest in granting specific waivers to countries that wouldn't be part of a more broader type of agreement. So I'm a little bit suspicious on this one, which Renaud is right, but I'm not quite sure whether this is something that's legally possible, could the administration do it with us, Congress, that's one. Particularly, and I don't think it's going to happen doing what we call the lambda session between now and beginning of January, and I think the House of Representatives with a majority of Republicans is probably less inclined to grant this type of waivers. That's the point I wanted. Jean-Claude, I just want to get over to a colleague over here who's had his hand up for a long time. Yes, sir, what's your question? Well, my name is Im Sung-Joon, former Korean ambassador. Well, we have to remember that there is a very dangerous geostrategic flashpoint that is the Korean Peninsula. North Korean, somebody talked about Kim Jong-un, and this year he fired, he launched, I mean, the biggest number of missiles, including ICBMs.  They think that is the, you know, most advanced weapon in the world.  But many people, you know, in South Korea think that he doesn't pay the, you know, attention as much as he should pay.  Let's turn to our Washington insider here, Stu. Stu, what do you think? Is there going to be any change of U.S. policy on North Korea? I don't think so. I mean, obviously the policy that Trump proposed of meeting with Mr. Kim with no preconditions and no preparation was not successful, number one. Number two, our leverage with China, which is the main lever we have against North Korea, has evaporated because of the poor relationship with China. And it's one of the reasons I think we need to have a modicum of better relations. And so there really is very little that the administration sees that it can do with Mr. Kim. I think that it is important that President Biden in the second half of his first term go to South Korea, go to the DMZ, make it clear that he's willing to reengage with Mr. Kim to reduce tensions, do the same with Japan as well, and try to reengage with China on this issue. But Mr. Kim sees launching missiles as the only way to gain attention. He's got a collapsing economy, and this is his only way. So I think there's very little room for leverage by the United States, but we should certainly try again and I think and hope that the President will do so by a major visit to South Korea. Thank you very much, Stu. And thank you, Paddle. I think we've got to now end it right here because we have the foreign minister of Saudi Arabia who has arrived. And if you're confused about American foreign policy, I just remind you about a foreign policy concept that's as old as Richelieu, and that is constructive ambiguity. So maybe it's just a little ambiguity on the Americans part. Thank you very much all.


I need to work on some things. It has definitely been attitude and motivation. Hey you guys, my name is Brittany and welcome back to my YouTube channel.  So if you guys are interested in hearing everything that has happened for us in the month of September, then go ahead and stay tuned for today's video. So if any of you guys are new here to my channel, again, my name is Brittany. I have a nine, three and a one year old and I'm in my second year of homeschooling you guys. This year has definitely started off pretty rocky for me, but it has been nothing but God. And some of the prayers from you guys and just the messages that you guys have sent me that has really encouraged me and just covered my home and covered my homeschool. And I really truly feel blessed just to really be sharing with you that my homeschool has definitely turned around. If you guys aren't new here, I did make an update within my first three weeks of homeschool which is really sharing with you guys my struggles and the things that has happened within my first three weeks of homeschooling in my second year and just all the love that you guys poured to me and the emails, they really mean a lot. And I'm really grateful for just you guys and just having this sense of community and the love that you guys shared with me in that video. And it truly meant a lot to me. And I just wanna thank all of you guys for that. So yeah, so you guys, let's go ahead and get into this update. I really wanna highlight our book highlights, our curriculum highlights. I wanna talk about anything that really comes to me as far as September in our homeschool. I really wanna try to highlight it and share it with you guys last school year in my first year of homeschooling. I really wish I would have documented month by month my homeschooling journey because I feel like right now I would really like to look back at that. So I definitely wanna make it a part to bring you guys these monthly updates just because I know it will help somebody out there watching these updates and also too, it always helps me to be able to look back and see where I started, where I came from and it really gives me encouragement to keep moving forward. So yeah. So I'm gonna go ahead and get straight into our books that we've read so far within our first quarter of our homeschool because we did complete our first eight weeks and I'm so proud of us. So the first book that we started off our school year with was the trumpet of the swan. This was a continuation from summer and it definitely was a great book. This is a classic. Anything from EBY, I definitely recommend to you guys. So trumpet of the swan, it was beautiful. I definitely recommend it. We went straight into our second read aloud which was a long walk to water. We're actually doing an Africa unit study from the heritage mom. It's called Amazing Africa. It has definitely truly been a blessing in our homeschool and I wanted to add this read aloud a long walk to water in addition to all of the resources that she provides for the Amazing Africa unit study and this has definitely been a beautiful book. This was one of the highlights that my daughter said for this school year. This book follows a journey of Nala and Saba in Sudan Africa and it just follows their struggles, how they overcome them. And I really feel like this book definitely shed a lot of light in my daughter. My daughter is nine, she'll be 10 in December and it definitely impacted her a lot. I definitely would say this book is definitely for middle school, possibly high school because of the content and things like that in this book. But if you feel like your student is mature, I definitely would say this is definitely a good read. It really opened her eyes to just the basic needs of others and just the things that she has here and just for her to be really grateful for just our life here in America and the things that she doesn't have to deal with. It really showed these two kids persevere and throughout difficulties and the challenges that life faced them and she really enjoyed following these two people, Nala and Saba and she really enjoyed seeing how they persevere through everything that life brought to them. And yeah, she definitely enjoyed this. I definitely would say this is a must read for any student. Again, like I said, I really feel like this is for more of a mature audience. I would definitely tell you as a mom to read this book before you present it to anyone in elementary school, possibly younger than fifth grade. I definitely would say to pre-read it, but it definitely was a good, powerful book, at least in my opinion. So yeah. So going from such a strong nonfiction story, I wanted to give us something a little bit light after that. So right now we are actually reading packs as our fall read aloud. It's definitely been amazing. We've been really enjoying it. We're in chapter 13, so we're almost halfway through this book. I definitely know in our second quarter we'll probably be finished this book in the next two weeks, but it's definitely been a really, really good told story about packs and Peter and their adventure together. Sarah Penny Packer is really a great author and I've really been enjoying it. I've been enjoying listening to this book on Audible version because last year I read all of our read alouds and I was really tired of just always reading along with all of the other reading that we were doing. So this year I gave myself a break and we are actually listening to this one and definitely has been really, really enjoyable listening and culling on the couch. And yeah, I definitely see why a lot of homeschooling moms love Audible books. So yeah, we've definitely been enjoying them here in our homeschool. Now as far as curriculum highlights and things like that, one of my main curriculum highlights has definitely been amazing Africa. I know I talk about it all the time, but I really have been enjoying that unit study in our home. We're about halfway done with that unit study. We will be done with it before Thanksgiving and I'm really gonna be sad when we finish exploring all of these countries within Africa, but it definitely has been amazing. I have been learning things that I didn't know even as an adult. So it's really been a learning experience for me and for my daughter. So yeah, definitely that has been one of our curriculum highlights. Another one of our curriculum highlights has definitely been Fixit Grammar. You guys, if you see my curriculum changes video and I talked about all the changes that I went through with my curriculum, those was like one of my main struggles, just picking the wrong pick curriculum for the start of the school year. I picked curriculum that was too teacher intensive especially for the place in life that I'm at right now. I do have two toddlers. I have a one and a three year old that still demand a lot from me, but I still need to be able to carve out that time to give to my daughter. So picking curriculum that's not too teacher intensive is really important to me. And I feel like that was where a lot of my struggles happened at the beginning of our school year. I'm just picking the wrong things that didn't fit our season of life. But one thing I did pick that just went well from the beginning was Fixit Grammar. My daughter actually went from being able to identify parts of speech about 50% to about 90% after just finishing the first eight weeks of Fixit Grammar. So they are actually only edited in one sentence a day, but I really feel like just these simple grammar lessons have definitely strengthened my daughter's grammar skills and learning her parts of speech. And this has definitely been a highlight for me and for my home school. Now as far as our second quarter goals, we are going to be putting Fixit Grammar down just the end or for our second quarter. And it's really not because of anything negative. It's actually because of something positive. Me and my husband decided because my daughter loves writing and she enjoys writing so much that we are going to let her do a writing course next school year. And I looked into a lot and I really think I'm gonna go ahead and do IEW structure and style. I think it's the first one is A, structure and style to really help her with those writing skills and let her hone in on them because writing is something that she just naturally enjoys. And I really want to continuously allow her that time and that space to flourish that craft. So yeah, we are definitely going to put her in IEW either January or next school year. But right now it's looking like we're gonna allow her to do it in January. So I feel like by putting this on hold and letting her do Fixit Grammar with IEW, it would definitely be a good compliment just because she will be doing more composition. And I want her to have those short grammar lessons with it. So as far as another curriculum highlight, I definitely have is master books. We went back to master books you guys and it definitely has been amazing. We're actually doing master books, language lessons for a living education level five and it's been a beautiful fit for her. We did level three last year and I jumped skipped her to five. I really feel like last year we should have did four but I didn't make the switch when I should have. So I just jumped skipped her. We went to five. It's been a perfect fit. It's been a perfect compliment. I feel like she wants to do lesson after lesson because English is like the subject she loves the most and I'm so happy that I found something that she's able to do. She's able to get it as short and sweet. It's to the point and I can still give her that space to be able to do her creative writing and things that she likes to do. As far as creative writing goes, my daughter finished writing her first story and she actually illustrated her title and she actually made a, what is this? I guess her back cover of her first story that she's written here in our homeschool and it's been amazing seeing her go through this writing process, writing her first story. I think this little story has 15 chapters in it and it's so amazing just watching her flourish in a crack that she loves and I'm so happy that I jumped a gun and made those curriculum changes in the beginning of our school year to allow my daughter that time and that space to be able to do something that she loves and she enjoys. So I definitely will say that I'm happy and I stand behind firmly, me just jumping a gun early within our homeschool because ever since we switched and we're doing the curriculum choices that we are doing, it definitely has been beautiful. Our days just flow great and I feel like I'm really enjoying what homeschooling is meant to be and yeah, you guys. So those are our curriculum highlights. Now I want to talk about Bible. This year we actually did something a little bit different for Bible. We added in these character matters cards from September in code and you guys, these character matters cards have definitely been a great addition to our homeschool. You guys, like it's so crazy that I'm over here teaching my daughter characteristic traits and things like that and me teaching her these things is really resonating with me as well. Like if I want my daughter to pursue these characteristic traits, I have to be the example for her. So as we are going through them, I feel like I'm taking more from it possibly than she is at this very moment because mama bear, you know, I need to work on some things and I need to really display how we are supposed to be here on this earth and how God wants us to be. And I really need to set that example for her. So as we are going through these characteristic traits, not only am I giving this to her but I feel like this is a good reminder for me to continuously show my daughter's examples of how he wants us to be, especially in our homes when we can lose our patience pretty fast and things like that. So these character managed cards have been beautiful. I'm not too sure if we're going to go through all of these throughout the school year, it will be really nice to be able to go through all of them but I'm really going to just take our time when it comes to character and character development but it definitely has been a beautiful addition in our homeschool. Something else that we do for Bible is I teach my daughter Bible through our Sabbath school lessons. I go on Grace Link, on the Grace Link app and I pull up her primary Sabbath school lesson which is for ages seven through nine and I just print off the lesson for the week, we go over that as well. Something that we do daily in addition to her Sabbath school lesson is also this cute little devotion and I found on Amazon and it's called how to grow a courageous girl. And this little mini devotional you guys has been so amazing in our homeschool. These little devotionals are about five minutes. They have a scripture verse and a prayer at the end of it and I really feel like a lot of the things that they're touching on in this little devotional, it really has been amazing and it's really age-appropriate. I would say like between ages eight to 12 will be a good age for this little mini devotional. I really feel like my daughter can do this on her own and read it. However, I like to read it with her. I like to talk about what the devotional says and things we can take from it and it's really been amazing. This little 499 book from Amazon, you guys is definitely has been a highlight. Now along with Viable, you guys, I really wanna thank my mom because she definitely always contributes to our homeschool and I'm so blessed to have her. She went to a Christian bookstore sale and she was able to find me these beautiful family book devotionals that I feel like we're definitely going to add in our second quarter. These books actually go over the Old Testament. So this first book right here goes over Adam and Eve. This next book starts off with Abraham. This one talks about Jacob and then it ends with Joseph. So all of these books right here are all goes over the Old Testament. This is actually an older edition she found on sale and I'm so happy to have these beautiful devotional family books in our homeschool and mom, if you're watching this, thank you again for these books. They're beautiful. I'm gonna try to insert you guys pictures and flip-throughs of these devotional books and if I can find the links below, I will definitely try to find the links to it as well for you guys if you're interested in these family devotionals, but yeah. So you guys, as far as I should say, like some challenges we've faced this quarter, other than like curriculum challenges, I will say it has definitely been attitude and motivation. My daughter, Gabrielle, you know, typically we have a student that loves English and writing. They typically don't like math and science. My daughter loves science, but math, not so much. And it's just so crazy that she is really, really good at math. We are actually doing a Becca arithmetic four for math. We did a Becca arithmetic three last year and she's good at it. I talked to her about the, whatever our new concept is that we're learning. I feel like she gets the concept right away. She does her problems and when she's doing her work, she might get like one or two problems wrong within the lesson. And I really feel like she's good at math for the most part. She just doesn't like it. She told me she just doesn't like all of the work that math, you know, that you have to do when it comes to math. And you know, I understand, but you know, I told her, you know, Brie, we have to show up and we have to have a positive attitude when it comes to subjects, even the ones that we don't like. So even though math is not her favorite subject, she's really, really good at it. And I'm going to continuously motivate her. And my main motivation is really bribery. And I know that sounds bad. And how I do it is it's pretty much, I tell her, Brie, we're gonna do math before we get to our English and writing. So I always do math first, then we do our English and writing. So that has definitely been, it's definitely been a motivation for her to get done with her math so she can get to a subject that she loves a little bit more. So, so yeah. As far as her writing and goals that I do have for her writing for our next quarter is that I really want to start teaching my daughter more, I guess, editing skills when it comes to writing. I really want us to focus more on grammar. In particular, I want us to work on like fragments and run on sentences. I feel like within her writing, coming up with ideas, outlining, coming up with her topic sentence and conclusion sentences and paragraph formation. All those things come really natural to her. But I feel like the grammatics and things like that, like forgetting to put a period at the end of her sentence and things like that and not breaking up sentences that needs to get broken up. Little things like that are things that we're gonna focus on more when it comes to the rest of this quarter to get her prepared for that formal writing class because I definitely know she's going to do amazing in it. I just want to make sure that we find to these little teeny things when it comes to her writing skills and everything like that. So again, we are gonna put aside Fixed Grammar. We're gonna focus on our master books, language lessons for a living education. We're going to do some oral grammar drills and I'm really going to work on those things with her to prepare her for this IEW writing class. She's really, really excited about it and I'm excited for her to be able to work on something that she's really interested into. I do want to teach her how to write persuasive paragraphs and expository paragraphs as well before she starts. So she can get into a different style of writing. She's really, really good at storytelling, personal narrative, things like that but I do want to get her to be able to do other forms of writing and those are the two forms of writing that I do want to introduce to her this second quarter. So yeah. So you guys, another life update that did happen to us in the month of September and it's really, really sad for me to say this but I understand that this is just a cycle of life but if you guys do follow me on Instagram you probably would have known that I expressed to you that my grandmother, she passed away on September 2nd and this month has, or this couple of months has really been hard but with my grandmother passing away, it definitely hit home and it definitely has been a hard season for me going through grief and everything like that.  My grandmother actually taught me how to read which is crazy for me to say it that she taught me how to read and my grandmother put me into private Christian school and it's just been so many moments in my life that she has just been there. She was there with me when I purchased my first car and it's just been everything. She was there with me when me and my husband we purchased this house that we're in right now and when she's seen our house she was just so proud of me and it's really hard to go through like this grieving process along with trying to be strong for my girls and being a good mother and everything like that. I'm really happy that my grandmother is no longer in pain and I know I will see her again someday but it definitely has been hard this month in particular with everything and the grieving of my grandmother but I will say homeschooling has definitely been a positive distraction in my life. I really have been pouring into not only Brielle but my other daughters because it's really important to me now and just remembering all the things that my grandmother taught me and it feels good that all the things she taught me now I can teach my daughters and I know if she was able to see me today she would be so proud of me and everything that I'm doing for my girls and yeah, so that has been a big life update that has happened and I wanna thank everybody who did reach out to me when I expressed her passing away and things like that and those words, they really meant a lot to me so yeah, you guys. So as far as goals and things that I have for the rest of this school year or not the school year but the rest of this quarter as we're going into our second quarter is goals for myself is that I wanna be more mindful of myself and I wanna be better at taking care of myself. You guys, I'm really bad at waking up before the kids actually wake up to the baby monitor of my kids being up in the morning and I really want to start taking better care of myself because I can't pour from an empty cup and I wanna start waking up at least an hour before the girl so I can do my morning devotional so I can listen to my podcast that I love to listen to. I really wanna pour into my spirit and my heart because I know it definitely will help me when I'm pouring into my kids especially in our Bible time and within our home school and that's definitely a focus that I wanna focus on. Another goal is I wanna spend more quality time with my husband. I feel like ever since we have had our kids we have definitely, haven't done a good job at spending that quality time together that we need to with it coming up on the fall season especially here in Georgia, I'm really excited about it. I'm excited to be able to pull out some of our favorite movies and just spend time on a couch watching movies when we put the girls to sleep and things like that so that definitely is gonna be a priority this second quarter just in life in general is just to carve out that special time with my husband and for us to do those fun things that we used to do even just as simple as like I said just watching our favorite movies and eating snacks when the kids go to bed and things like that so yeah. Another one of my goals or whatever for homeschooling is that I want to be more intentional when it comes to Leia my three year old. She actually has been doing a really good job you guys as far as her speech and language development speech therapy started back in August so she has definitely done awesome when it comes to that but I really feel like I didn't spend as much time with her as I wanted to doing like preschooly things, messy art, doing all of those type of things so I definitely wanna put more emphasis on carving out that time for her especially in the afternoons in the afternoons when they wake up from that time that is like her prime time she's always giving me books and that's the time she wants my attention the most and I really want to be intentional with continuously teaching her things she definitely has flourish just first quarter she actually has learned all of her letter recognition is it called it? Letter recognition yeah that's what it's called she's learned her letter recognition her uppercase and her lowercase and she actually knows all of her letter sounds fluently out of order and she's doing really good with that she's doing really good with like all the little logic puzzles she's doing really really good with simple math with the counting bears that I've been doing with her so the time that I have been spending with her has been intentional and she's doing good and she's thriving but I wanna be even more intentional with giving her that extra special time that she needs now as far as my one year old Alana she's just doing her one year old thing but I do wanna be intentional with her as well continuously reading with her helping her develop her language and speech skills and continuously helping her form her vocabulary and working with her as well so that's another goal as far as YouTube goes I do have some small goals for YouTube is that I wanna just I guess I should say I wanna be more consistent on YouTube I feel like doing two videos a week is really too much for me I feel like I've tried to do two videos a week it's easier for me to do two videos a week in a summertime when I'm not homeschooling but now that homeschool is in full effect I think I'm gonna drop down to just doing one YouTube video a week and I hope you guys can understand that I really need to continuously pour into my family and into my kids I love YouTube, I love filming and this is like the best part of my day filming and creating things for you guys but I definitely need to have a good balance between my home life and my work life so I think me scaling back to just one video a week will definitely work this month I was actually only able to post one video a week and I definitely think that that is like my good flow my good rhythm and yeah, you guys if you have any video recommendations just let me know, leave them down below for me and I definitely would love to do it I know you guys are looking forward to a day in a life and don't worry, it might not be the next video but the video after that I will have a day in a life for you and I'll show you a little bit more of our ins and outs our daily schedule, our new daily flow and how I'm managing things between my nine year old and my two toddlers and how I'm getting all of our home school done we're still able to do all the fun things that we like and we enjoy and everything like that so you guys, that's my September update that's really everything that has happened I'm really happy that even though life circumstances and our challenges that we face this first quarter I really feel like I'm proud of us all of my goals as far as where I wanted us to be at in our curriculum for the first quarter we met them we have done an awesome job I'm proud of my daughter for just all the things that she's done and she's reached her goals she's reached this first quarter and I can't wait to see how the rest of our home schooling year goes I really feel like I'm at the point right now where I can say that I'm seeing why people love home schooling and I'm seeing that joy and that spark really come to life I feel like my first year I was just in the hustle and bustle but now I feel like I'm seeing it I'm seeing why home schooling is such a joy and it really means a lot to me so you guys I really hope you enjoyed today's video I really hope you enjoy seeing my September update as always you guys please don't forget to comment, like and subscribe and I look forward to seeing everyone in my next one


Hey everybody, hope you're having a great time at MozCon today. It's my very first MozCon, so excited and nervous. But today we're going to talk a bit about links. So a few months ago, I was checking the news, and I came across these three articles. They're not really that related to each other, but they have a few things in common. So they're all well-known tech publications.  And these research reports have anywhere from 50 to 1,000 referring domains. Pretty impressive. So what are the research reports anyways? They are a piece of long-form content that uncovers data. So in the SEO world, we have examples like Zippy's study of page title rewrites with over 200 links. We also have Aira's state of link building with over 50 links. And what these reports have in common is that they share interesting data. And that's how they are able to get a bunch of links. So if you want to create a research report that gets links, we need to be able to uncover interesting data. And that's because interesting data is exactly what journalists want to share with their readers. So if your report is able to do this, then you're able to get links to your report. And of course, I'm not talking about just any link. I'm talking about high DA links that everybody here has gotten emails about before. Yeah. So how do we do that? Well, there are basically two things that we need to nail. The first is the story that we tell. And the second is the outreach that we do. And the most important thing is really going to be number one, the story. What is the topic that we're going to do our research report on? And then that's going to affect the success of number two, the outreach that we do. And so let's jump into exactly how we're going to do this. I'm going to take you step by step on how we are going to create a research report that is link-worthy. So first step is going to be to do a brainstorm. So let's say my company sells ergonomic chairs. So here I try to choose something that's not the most sexy product out there. And what we're going to do is draw three concentric circles like this. At the very center is going to be our product, which is chairs. And then next is the features of our product. So our chairs are adjustable. They're very comfortable. They're made of some of the best materials. So any other features you can think of, you can jot those down. And these are going to help us determine what ideas are going to go in that outermost circle. And the outermost circle is our related topics. So things like health, posture, office ergonomics, which is a real keyword that has search volume, work from home, things like that. You want to go broad with the topics that you can think of. Because journalists, they want to report on topics that affect a large group of people. So with that in mind, we'll narrow down our topics to these three. And we'll come to you on to the next step, which is to do research. So this step is probably going to be pretty similar to doing something like a content competitor analysis. We want to see what existing data is out there, what research reports are out there on the topics that we narrow down. So easiest way to do this is to just Google. We're going to combine the topic with these keywords and see what shows up. We can also use Moz's SERP analysis tool. So here I typed in the word health trends. And we can see that CVS did a report back in 2021. And so two things kind of jumped out at me. First is the year that this report was published, 2021. If, let's say, this report was published in 2018, it would be potentially an opportunity for me to provide more up-to-date information. Because the report wouldn't be covering things like COVID. But since it's 2021, I might be like, maybe not this idea. Another thing I would look at is the number of referring domains and the quality of that. So if I click into that, I can see the backlinks aren't that great. So maybe let's not just choose this idea. But I want to keep track of all the research reports that I come across and keep a list of these. That way, when I publish my final report, I can refer back to this list and do outreach to the journalists that have reported on these reports and see if they can link to my report. Now, the next step is going to be to decide on my idea. So I have a few ideas. I'm not really sure which one I'm going to choose. So the easiest way, the way that I like to do it, is to just score my ideas. So you might have heard of frameworks like ICE or PI. So I won't go into those. They're really great for prioritizing your ideas. But they don't determine. You can't figure out how press-worthy or how news-worthy an idea is from these frameworks. So I'll introduce something new called the hot score. So it's a score from 1 to 10 that factors in three things. Headlines, other teams, and timeliness. So for headlines, the H in hot. We're going to think about what our potential headline's going to say about my report. So for example, 78% of remote workers experience back pain. And I'm one of those people. So the more headlines that you can think of, the higher your hot score is going to be. And so you want to think of any other newsworthy things that you might expect to see in a newspaper or magazine about your report and give a hot score according to those numbers. The next is the other teams. So when you work on a research report, you want to make sure you loop in other teams, like your PR team, your data team. For the PR team, it's really important for them to be involved as early as possible, because they are the experts in what journalists want to share with their readers. And so you can get their feedback on your ideas, and then also they can help with doing the outreach for your report. And if you're a SaaS company or you have a data team and you determine that you want to analyze the data that you have internally, you want to ask your data team and see if that's even possible. So it's important to get these other teams involved in the process. Next is the T for timeliness. How timely are the ideas that I have in mind? Do they tie back to current events? Are these things that people actually care about or are we tired of hearing about it? So let's jump into examples. Number one, work from home stipends. So I feel like the topic work from home has been, we talk about it a lot in the past two years. I feel like people are maybe a little bit fatigued about hearing that type of news. And so the hot score for that is going to be a little bit low. Whereas something like best cities for hybrid work, it's more top of mind for people. People are going back to the office. So this is going to have a much higher hot score. So maybe some other examples is, let's say, if we want to do some research report on the benefits of good posture. I mean, I think that's pretty common knowledge. So that's going to have a really low hot score of one or two. Whereas if I could somehow tie back ergonomic chairs with the recession, then that would have a hot score of 10. Now with the scoring, we can go on with the next step, which is to gather data. Since we have an idea of what topic that we want to do our research report on. So the next step is to gather your data. So before we do that, we need to first figure out what questions do we want our research report to answer. We can tap into communities like Twitter, Reddit, anywhere else that your customers hang out. And then take a look at what people are talking about there. Are there any topics that people have opinions about but lack actual data on? And then you want to start listing these out and then think about how do you gather these data points? There are typically going to be three ways to get data. There's using existing data sets. You can conduct a survey. You can also tap into your proprietary data. Or you can even do a mix of these three. So an example of using existing data would be Lydia's gender gap in SEO publishing. So yeah, awesome report. Make sure to check it out. Basically, she scraped different SEO publications to see what is the gender ratio of male to female writers. And Moss did really well in this one. So again, check that out. And so other ways, other data sets we can tap into are like Google Trends. There's a bunch more in the link. And you can get data for free and be able to analyze that and put that into your report. Let's say we do our work from home stipends idea. We can get data in two ways. So first, we can scrape data from different job boards to see how much people are paying their remote workers for the work from home stipend. We can also do a survey. We can ask people, what did they spend their stipend on? How much did they receive? Whether or not that was enough. And then with this data, we can splice it into by location, company size, industry, and more. Let's also do the other topic with the higher hot score. Best cities for hybrid work. So for this, I would like to create a formula. What does a good city for hybrid work look like? So there might be different things that we can score cities on. So things like, how good is the transportation, the number of hybrid jobs, how bad is the traffic in those cities? And then we'll be able to get a score for each of the cities and create a ranking. And then with that ranking, we can also create a really cool graphic like this. People love to share, and journalists also like to report on things like this. And the nice thing about this is also I can reach out to some of the top cities and be like, hey, Seattle ranked number two for the best cities for hybrid work. And journalists in Seattle would be really interested in reporting on something like this. Now the next step is to analyze our data and then tell a compelling story. So we have gathered our data, and now we need to analyze it and tell that story. So as you look through the data that you gathered, ask yourself, what here is newsworthy? Is there anything here that are going to make people be like, wow, I never knew that? Tell me more. Or anything controversial? You want to pull these data points and then turn that into the story you tell in your research report. And then you also want to add these points at the very top of your report. It just makes it easy for anyone to copy and paste into whatever they're writing. So to recap, we want to identify a topic with a high hot score for headlines, other teams, and timeliness. We want to gather that data, analyze it, pull the most interesting newsworthy insights, weave that into a compelling story, and then we want to do outreach to the right people. So I'll leave you with two quick tips on outreach. The first one is always make sure to monitor your unlinked mentions if you aren't already doing so already. So when you hit publish on that report, anyone who mentions your company, your report, any of the stats, those are opportunities for you to get links easily. Second is also to monitor the links to the news coverage of your report because sometimes people might cite that news coverage as the original source of data, but they could also be linking to you. So an example of this is a report that I did at Dialpad earlier this year. And Tech Republic, they did news coverage on our report. And Statista came across this news coverage and they linked to it, but they didn't link to our report. So I reached out to them and I said, hey, thank you so much for mentioning our report. We really appreciate it. I noticed you didn't link to our report and you only covered one stat, whereas our report, there's a bunch of other interesting stats and we were able to get a link that way and it's a really great high-day link from Statista.  So if you want to capitalize on the links you get to your research report, just make sure to follow the steps that I share today and go out there and get those links. Thank you.


Everybody forced here ripping three boxes of 2022 certified football hobby. These are for Brandon W Here we go Brandon first break of Monday night here. Let's do it Let's find some pick it. Let's find some olave some Walker. Maybe some Garrett Wilson. He's a beast Everyone's going crazy for Mike white will the Mike white rookie last night actually Yeah, well every start with a Kenny pick it rookie patch 237 to 349 Yeah, he's a 2018 rookie for the Cowboys actually Pull one of his base rookies in 2018 prison I was like jokingly booming it Earl Campbell on the Canton certified auto two out of ten nice card. I Was a beast Longhorn legend to nice vet hit to start The the autos there still have that What's the RP I've heard the RPA called Yeah, what it's called still got one of those coming though numbered cards Michael Pittman jr. 72 of 275 Brian Robinson jr. Rookie numbered two three twenty five Sam howl on the graffiti That's awesome Max. Thanks for watching man Justin Herbert on the player warrant patch three out of ten There you go nice one charger not chargers a group break mode play. Yeah his player worn That's pretty sick. I like that color match of the gold to good first box here Darren Waller 35 of 75 Raiders won a game yesterday like Seattle was for sure gonna make a playoffs now. It's Well, if he the Dolby's be Congrats A son Haskins freshman fabric RPA 22 of 199 graffiti rookie Chris Olave Travon Walker to 399 Joe Mixon to 149, please come back Joe Mixon my fantasy team desperately needs you cool orange color match Certified stars Justin Herbert Numbered 17 out of 99 pretty good first boxer. Let's see if we can get a better RPA for you And one of these next couple Brandon Starting off with a George Pickens rookie Jersey now 286 of 349 Someone comes in here Sam Howell on the rookie roll call auto six out of ten Very nice Sam Howell auto to ten Rikki QB.  They're winning Touchdown here there through a pick yesterday I mean he's not not the best not the worst graffiti Johan Dotson Doing what it takes to win ball games 187 to 349 Tana held Titans a certified stars Dak Prescott Cowboys 27 of 149 And a Kyra Williams Rikki to 275 All right, so if Messi comes to enter Miami, we're just gonna go to all the games FC Miami, whatever it is Kenny pick it on the rookie patch 80 of 349 Sounds good, we'll see him in Orlando to yes Tom Brady did 275 bucks Brady bucks are five and six that's Skymore chiefs graffiti and poor preset Not gonna be able to start anymore graffiti to 249 Kenneth Walker the third Tyrion Davis price freshman fabric RPA 146 of 249 for shod white Rikki numbered to 325 Is everybody at Shawn's gonna fall asleep guys Gary Wilson Rikki to 99 All right last one big RPA coming this time Jordan poyer bills on the jersey card to 199 Game one of the poyer Sam Williams auto 12 out of 50 for the rookie linebacker there Kenneth Walker the third graffiti to 249 again Another one of those another one is quiet out there Shawn at least for now Denny Gray Rikki to 149. Oh, yeah, it's only a matter of time McDuffie Rikki to 199 Malik Willis graffiti Fred Warner player worn patch numbered 46 of 50 Gold team Brady Number 41 of 149 McHaffrey to 349 Two more should be RPA in this one. Come on. It's an Isaiah Spiller freshman fabric RPA 57 of 99 three colors Isaiah Spiller he signs I s Kenneth Walker the third graffiti again a Crystal lava at a 275 the Vonte Smith 8 out of 50 What's going on Kyle and that'll do it Brandon. Thank you again. We appreciate it. We'll get those right out to you


Kaj je inbečil, da je vzlušenje vzlušenje v zelo, na kateri, iko je prijevili problemov, vzlušenje, da je na vsev zelo vzlušenje, in zelo, ki je zelo povodil na taj del, razradi je noga. To je začala povod, iz Misha Grishka, ki je odradi v 2014. Tukaj je tukaj vse prekast, ker je tukaj tukaj atmosferične, konvektivne vse. Tukaj simulacija je skupnila v Spalm LS. Tukaj je za Pola region. Tukaj je tukaj tukaj konvektivne vse, kaj je zelo vse, kaj je zelo vse, tukaj je zelo vse, tukaj je zelo vse. Pozivim sem o ta delovnije vse navradi, vse je bljev, vse je vse blj, je vse je bilo komentan muž. Vse je bilo, da je vse vse, zelo vse je zelo vse, zelo vse je vse vse, vse vse je potenšiala temperatura, sasto, ki je poslednja z S-dajta z Rasa Reota, din S-dajta z Vagu, z Alfred Vagenirjučkih institutov, z Jorka Hartmann. Zelo sem zdenljela, da se večo različno obradi v figli, je z mimo količom, nekaj obradi in izvaj, Ok. Vse je... Geostrophic is forced by wind from above and you have in free atmosphere, geostrophic wind so called, which is caused by pressure horizontal gradient. Yeah. And due to carry-olis you have turning and V component appear. Ok. And here you also must have in mind that measurements, this is instantaneous fields, while the dns, oops, sorry, while dns, this is blue and Ls, here they are nearly coincide. They are horizontally average over domain of simulations. So next step. Now we see deviations from this mean, which was shown before. Here it's a potential temperature fluctuations. They here with prime. And this is site view. You have updrafts from below and downdrafts from group from above. It's data and here the view from above on this line, in the middle of boundary layer. And you can see that wind in this direction, so you can see the organization of plumes in some sort of strings. And temperature in vertical velocity you have, this is so called organized covariance structure or simply plumes. We just here they are small size in surface layer. After that they growing in size and in the middle they are represented like this. So now all standing questions. I must stress that I will talk only about one decay, if question arise about multidimensional features, I just will comment. And here there are, what does not work? There is no downgradian heat transport. There are no downgradian transport for third order moments, okay? And return to isotropy also does not work. As in homogenous turbulence. And finally famous milionček of hypothesis, sometimes called quasi normality assumption in DQNM framework and so on, also does not work. So, because all these feature in high order closure models, breakage means average, ensemble average, and in LS it's area averages. So, because in high order closure moment models, everything comes from milionček of hypothesis. It's the same for kinetic equation for closure models. And I will just analyze this only, this problem. Milionček of hypothesis was discovered in 41. And story of discovering of milionček of hypothesis, ah, it states that in all turbulence models, four order moments can be considered as gaussian, while third order moments completely non gaussian can be. And history of discovering of this is known because still survive people who was present in process of discovering that milionček of came to the lecture and Kalmagorov make his lecture, not lecture seminar. Small milionček of came, he was excited and tell that closure does not work, equations which he averaged non linear, now his talks does not work, and Kalmagorov turned back and tell making gaussian. And after that everything can start to work and so here I will demonstrate how milionček of hypothesis is presented in real signals. This is horizontal wind fluctuations. For them, of course gaussianality is working because it's some sort of nearly homogeneous and you can see. So what is shown here, here is the signal. Typical here it's pdf, gray one is gaussian. So you can see that deviation from gaussian is not very huge, actually very small and here skater plot which show gaussian behavior versus real measurements from this signal and everything is working perfect. But life is not so good for temperature fluctuations. Here you immediately can see huge deviation here from the gaussian behavior. And also this is clearly seen in pdf, you don't need even to plot milionček of curve by looking simply on pdf with gaussian. So we can expect them. So next step, this is what was known. In 2002 me and York Hartmann, we made some very simple trick. We just decided, okay, we will take, I talking about temperature, but the same was done for velocity components also. We take gaussian and we take very simple for delta model, which is called sometimes mass flux, sometimes cooking structure model and so on, but I will explain later what is this. And after that we suggest the simple, simple linear interpolation between two regimes that we tell everything is combined from very skewed gaussian turbulence, non gaussian turbulence. This is skewness, which is definition standard, nothing new here. And so we tested this trick and you see all these points move exactly on this line. So this is a new closure, which was called refined milionček of hypothesis. Why it's refined? Because here these two terms, this first term, it's exactly coincide with milionček of and skewness correction, it's refinement. Okay. So and we become happy with this because it works. And at the same time, we looked at some next step. If it works for refined milionček of hypothesis, we just made the trick that, okay, in turbulence it's allowed to make additional fitting constant and we just extended milionček of hypothesis by adding here ten fitting constant for five moments. And here there is the exercise. There are two mistakes in this formula. Here must be W of skewness and here also W of skewness because it's a higher order in velocities. So it's paste and copy and paste mistake. It's very good question because left hand side quadratic and here quadratic and skewness appear in square because it can appear without square in high order moments, I will show why. But here it's because due to symmetry simply. Please replace W to minus W, okay, in first equation. Right hand side. Okay. Yeah, yeah. Okay. So we was happy and decided that refined milionček of is better than extended milionček of. And now what happens in ten years after? Martin Losch made the simulation for deep ocean convection. Okay. And find out this functional form. Perfect. Linear interpolation work. After that, Friedrich Kupke made the simulations with compressible LS. The plumes have their speed near the Mach number. Okay. Very high. Kupke and Robinson. And they simulated sun and stars. After that, Lenchow made the measurements, ledar measurements in bold colorada. And Peter Sullivan made the LS simulations. It also worked. And recently it's not full set and I'm sorry if I not mentioned somebody. But finally, Vagoud made the DNS simulations, which I already shown. And this is also confirmed this functional form. And final step was made by Mironov in Močilske, who implemented this model in this parameterization in weather prediction cosmo model. And it also worked. So if such situation that then we have the functional form, okay, but all the studies reveal that actually turbulence moments can be as subgaussian, as supergaussian. That means not always free. It can be larger than free in zero skinous limit and can be smaller. So we decided to make something. So this is a question. What would be minimalistic model on gaussian, of course? And which can explain all this feature, which I already mentioned. And how to do this? What would be more or less universal description? And approaches is obvious. There are bulk models, there are runs models, first, second, third order. And ad hoc models. And also last one is LS and DNS models. So we just concentrate on ad hoc model. This is assumed distribution higher order closure model. It consists from several steps. They are obvious. Assume PDF, depending upon a parameter, solve for parameter in terms of irreducible PDF. Find higher order moments in terms of irreducible model moments. Test results against measurements LS DNS. If it does not work, repeat again and repeat again again before you reach some reasonable answer. So we quantify, we just decided to follow this problem. Here is a method from Marka Marigola. So it's a realistic signal. This corresponds to this. After that we come to Cubism of Pablo Picasso by simply making projections to PDF description. And finally we observe that we can approximate actual PDF by updraft motions. The velocity is only positive downdraft motions, then velocity negative. And some small scale background, they are around zero. And next step, most promising for analytical studies minimalism. Then you just move by replacing by delta functions for updraft, downdraft, and small scale turbulence. In analytical representation, everything looks very simple. You have PDF. Here I wrote for simplicity be variate case. There you have one, two, three, four for cognitive structure terms and one for background for small scale turbulence. W up, here it's updraft. They can be hot or cold. So you split, you have nine parameters. And for trivariate 15 and for quadrivariate 25 in all these cases we solved the problem. But I will talk only about variate for simplicity. So, what next? Next we have the equations for moments. They are looks like this. Any of these moments can be chosen as irreducible. But simplest choice, it's like this. Normalization conditions to zero for mean field, variances, flux, and two further moments, vertical velocity and temperature. They really basis for all future. So, fortunately it has nice solution, analytical solution for all moments. And structure, it's similar to Gaussian, but a little bit more complex. Here it's variances in corresponding power. Here, polynomial in correlation coefficients. These coefficients, which depends upon skevenesses. And ps, it's, you remember, it's 1 minus probability of background. Ops, sorry. And this depends upon ps, all these closure as a parameter. It's like fitting parameter. Area coverage has sense physical, has clear physical meaning. Area coverage in turbulence in nice coherent structures. And after that, we moved further. This is irreducible moments. This is measurements from aircraft campaigns. Here LAS, to which we feed our theory. And here is DNS, which feed data better. But we decided not to have many discussions with people about applicability of DNS. Here is complex situation to feed to LAS it easier to explain people because subgrid is more or less normal and everybody knows how it works. So, we did this heating. And now I go to result. This is now without mistakes formula. Here is our closure. This coefficient depends upon concentration of coherent structures. So, what we did actually, we matched the moments with physical morphology of coherent structure. If you know morphology, you can tell something about the closures. And now you see how it works. Here nearly perfect. The response to LAS data. Here parameter, there is no background at all. Here millončikov, refined millončikov hypothesis. P equal one third. And here then we increase or decrease PS concentration of coherent structure to 0.25. You see here. And physically everything is very nicely tractable if you have more coherent structure, more fluctuations. So, there are more large scale and you have more contributions so more moments must be larger. And rest of my talk is very simple. This is predicted moments for correlation between heat flux and variances. I have in mind W theta prime with W, for example here, W prime square. And everywhere have nice formulas depending on comparison, have very nice correspondence between data and our results. And next, we did the same for skewness variance calculation. And you see, now we come to answer to Simeon question. Here you see it's proportional, sorry, they are proportional to first power of skewnesses because they are not even but odd models. And after that, this is the end. This is summary. I finished. This is summary, technical summary. Technical summary consists of several statements. New exactly solvable model is suggested. High possesses, refined millions of hypothesis is proven and extended explained by fluctuations by this morphology of flow and the accuracy is very, very, very good and not bigger than skater which exist in numerical model due to subgrid scale closure for LS in comparison with DNF. Ok, here is romantic conclusion, philosophical. There always means that here you can see the perspective which is coming. And finally, thank you for your kind attention. And here you can read that there are two pessimistic and optimistic view of everything what was done. PCMist will tell, ok, better have no at all fitting constant and optimist tell, oh, we have reserve for 128. That's all. Spectrum, ok. There are two types of models. One model is called based spectrum models is called two point closure models, ok. But here it's one point closure models only. So spectrum is beyond the scope of such kind of models. They operate with much more simple feature, integral of spectrum, ok. Turbulence in recent understanding consists from three components. First component, mean field, second component, semi-organized structure and third homogenous isotropic turbulence of background. Here it's a mixture of semi-organized structure with small scale isotropic background. So we don't need actually spectra. Spectra not good representation for such situation. It fails completely. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Why it fails? Because you have some self-organization in the system. And spectrum representation. It suggests you quasi homogenous randomization of phases and something like this. But it's not necessary, it doesn't work. You must write something like simple closure equations plus additional equations for morphology of structure which are present there. In this case, concentration of coherent structure is a good parameter.


and The morning market kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien We're trying to find McQueen videos. Good afternoon everybody. Oh We got to play nice everyone's watching. Did you say hello? Tell them what you do. Do we go ice skating? Oh I think we did. I think we went ice skating today folks for the first time Hey, are we gonna make it through a half hour today? What do you think? Hey? Hey, we got to be nice, okay? No We're gonna see if we can find a video as we break down some of the action This is filler time until the chairman appears at 2 30. Which one you're gonna have to find it I thought we were gonna do the show together.  Now you can swipe right there. We're swiping YouTube videos here folks Google which one? So let's talk about what just happened in yields, man Some of the cherry-pick numbers that they're talking about over on the Bloomberg live feed over here the two-year yield 20 basis points lower you talk about lower yield. Okay, their market is pricing in 130 basis points of cuts in 2024 up from 1.1 percent before the FOM MC statement I just stated that the tenure is now at 4.1 percent. We're 4.09 as I calculated that median projection So they have inflation ticking down. They have unemployment remaining little unchanged Indicating Fed officials growing confidence. They can cool price gains without the big job losses for unemployment Yeah, acknowledges the inflation has eased over the past year, but remains elevated strong pace of economic growth What are we gonna watch Tommy? So the dot pot of rate projections shows a wide range of estimates of how much the fish should cut next year Median number is 75 basis points Eight anticipate fewer reductions five expect deeper cuts That's a number with a lot of variants. We talk about variants sometimes on the program That's a number with a lot of variants when you have eight under you five above you you pick a median number We're watching spider-man just like on your shirt. We got spider-man We got lightning McQueen folks and yeah, we were playing hockey and I'm gonna get some hockey pitchers up We were ice skating to be fair. We were public skating But the Tampa TGH Yeah, TGH ice plex in Brandon if you're looking for great public skating somewhere around the Tampa Brandon area Cool part about that is they have tons of hockey skates. They rent public skating today before school gets out We had a good time. We're back for the Fed day and yeah, it should be an interesting one So a lot of McQueen's Tommy FOMC Votes unanimously to leave the benchmark rate unchanged. So it's a unanimous decision Yeah, huge moves. We're gonna jump around to the yields man. So there's your dot plot And so let's see I mean you can see The range we're at we're at five point four percent basically right now, right? Well, we watch drop doc And so by 2024 Only one participant thinks we're gonna be under four percent by 2025 though, basically everybody thinks we're gonna be under four percent You're gonna be somewhere around three point five percent in the median area there and by 2026 we're back to two point five to three percent and then check it out longer term Yeah, you got a couple outliers here with the longer term number interesting there, right? Three participants on the dot plot see the longer term number Stuck at three point five or higher Odds of a mark rate March rate cut above 60% ooh This might accelerate quickly if that's where the market's talking about you get the dollar next drop in a 103 36 That's gonna put a bit under gold gold trading at 2016 If you haven't checked out the gold report folks great time to do it when you get that potential for yields Pulling back dollar weakness that could put a bit into gold. We jump over to the dollar yen Dollar yen drops to 144 21 had a great discussion with our man Teddy keg stat this morning He comes on every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. Is he dancing? Is he dancing nope, he's not dancing anymore All right, let's see how some of the thanks doc some of the magnificent seven apple up more than a full percent Microsoft Not quite the same performance, but they were lower. They're actually flat right now for Microsoft shares Amazon shares catch a bid everything catches a bid Amazon up three tenths percent right now You jump over to Tesla on the heels of their recall still off 1.3 percent, but they catch a bid as well Metta shares up half a percent right now Netflix Whoo, there you go. Netflix up by 3% right now Disney up by 1% See how the banks are doing on that number JP Morgan up by four tenths percent Bank of America by 1.6 percent There's an acceleration for you. Yeah Let's just keep jumping around to the charts as we break this down because it's moving pretty quickly Let's back that out Let's put it on a 15 minute and that's quite a move. Let's take a look at this on the Daily man We're blowing through the 50% number on this entire pullback from 116 18 I mean just remember how quickly we went from 117 essentially down to 105 Just like that. We're gonna be pushing 112 the 618 is 112 11 approximately and maybe that's an area Maybe 1 13 area another point and a half higher Okay, you play that game. Maybe a point and a half higher 113 ish somewhere in that area kind of where you chopped around for the better part of June that area that you're trading into at the end of May Maybe that's where you find your first area of resistance But if things come at you that quick man, you know, we only have what one meeting before March, right? Well, I pulled this up this morning. Here we go We sure do you got a January meeting and then you got March. So if they're gonna come with it They're gonna indicate. Maybe it's a March meeting Gonna be interesting to see what the chairman has to say Is he gonna like how the market interpreting is interpreting their words as of 230 or is he gonna push back? Is the market getting a little bit ahead of itself? I don't know. We'll see that's your tenure. Let's jump over to the two year Look at that move man 102 16 we're up by 12 takes huge move for such a short duration Five year breaks above those recent highs that we had just a few days ago as well with the S&Ps up by 30 NASDAQ 100 up by 610s percent right now Yeah, it's even like it's setting up as a pretty dovish statement and we'll see if chairman Powell follows through though Just going through some of the analysis Yeah, we've seen the first move get faded before but I don't think so the market likes the fact that the Fed's talking about 75 basis points of cuts next year because remember they're gonna remain Pessimistic on that number. They're not gonna tell the market that they're gonna get ahead of the market, right? They're never gonna say the market right now where they still have work to do We're gonna cut more than you guys even think don't worry about it You guys can ease up No, the point of all this restrictive fiscal policy is to tighten up the markets the moment they tell you that that's over That's gonna undo much of what they've done So it makes sense that they would be on the light side and if they're saying 75 is their call Maybe they're willing to go a full point a point in a quarter next year is maybe when the market is thinking All right We're gonna get all-time highs man. What do we got? We got 90 points In the NASDAQ 100. No, yes 90 points in the NASDAQ 100 We got less than 80 in the S&Ps one more segment before the chairman speaks come on back currencies commodities and bond markets are as important As ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe Which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Keg stats Tiger forex report Teddy Keg stat breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures Forex stocks and options Teddy releases his weekly tiger forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs Including the dollar index the euro dollar pound dollar dollar Swiss dollar yen as well as many more And he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year t-bonds as they both influence forex markets Tremendously when you sign up for the tiger forex report You also gain instant access to Teddy 60 minute webinar archive. He just hosted forex strategies and fundamentals What is behind the tiger forex report for all the details and to start your 30-day tiger forex report subscription today? Visit the front page of TFNN comm TFNN educating investors the gold report as A precious metal gold is still king It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market The US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange The gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU HUI GDX the dollar bonds the South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations The gold report New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN dot-com Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter market insights your key to successful active trading Tom O'Brien renowned for his expertise in the financial markets has designed Market insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades Tom publishes his daily market insights newsletter every market day before the market open along with updates When warranted stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox Whether you're a season trader or just starting out market insights provides the edge You need to navigate the markets with confidence ready to join the ranks of successful traders head over to TFNN Dot-com and subscribe to market insights today Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results market insights comes with a 30-day money back guarantee for all new Subscribers so you have nothing to risk don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game Head over to TFNN dot-com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter market insights firsthand TFNN educating investors Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at<PHONE_NUMBER> Welcome back folks Tom O'Brien Tommy O'Brien. Let's see Let's see if we can get it going for you Tommy. Ah, it's not letting you work, buddy You know what is amazing and I've talked about it before is that on YouTube The thumbnails of the best thumbnails around are the ones that are sponsored contact getting you to click off the site to some different URL Which throws a wrench in things to put it lightly So we get the markets continuing higher man S&Ps up by 31 Tommy. We got green on the board. Check it out You gotta tell them they're watching you. Hey, tell them what we did. Did we did we go skating today Tommy? Yeah, we sure did folks. Let's show them a few pictures of us skating before we get off. Okay This is a good one How are we gonna do this? There we go. All right perfect First of all spoke folks. You got to see this prior And I know it's fed day. We're coming back with the chairman live in 10 minutes folks That's not even the good one. Let's get the one with your eyes open, right? Yeah, we were spider-man this morning That's his big brother's costume. He got 11 Tommy. Are you spider-man? Hey, we're showing everybody right here your picture Hey, mister, right here. You see the picture. Tell them Yeah, you were spider-man this morning. You were What were you doing? Should we show him skating Tommy? Oh I think we should because this was his first time skating. He's got his spider-man jersey on So pretty cool place. We'll give him a free plug for short. It's actually where the lightning practice as well in Brandon Occasionally and you see the type of skates they have for kids for rental. Not bad some nice decent hockey skates on there. Oh What are you doing, mister? There we are. He's got his spider-man helmet on safety first We were out on the the ice a little bit there. Were you skating good? Oh, you were skating with daddy, weren't you? And there he was finishing up the day So it was a great time. Are you tired from a big day Tommy? Hey Yeah, well, we're gonna wait until after the show so we can hear you We'll wait till afterwards. We'll try to get them out of that one first What spider-man doing tell them they can't see they can't see did you say hello to everybody hey, hello everybody No, you haven't said hello yet. That's okay. They're watching you Yeah, they're getting ready for chairman Powell to talk at 230 He's gonna be live. Are we gonna listen to the chairman's press conference right here live on Tiger TV? Think we should do that Well, I'm here folks. Don't forget about tiger dollars Don't forget about a man Tim ward the science of market tops Tim's coming up tomorrow Basil Chapman's got a webinar a week from today for the opening call subscribers. I encourage you to check out the gold report gold Accelerating higher yet again. It would make sense That if we do have yields dropping we have dollar weakness that could put a bid in commodities You're seeing gold move to the upside today on that relationship in a big way You got gold contract up twenty seven dollars now two thousand and twenty still well off that spike high We got of two thousand one hundred and fifty two dollars just last Sunday about eight days ago But nonetheless your gold moving higher if you're gonna sign up for any of those Tim Ward tomorrow night the science of market tops Basil Chapman the opening call week from today the gold report first thing you do is folks go to the front page of TFNN Check out that tiger dollar sale Wow. I had my mug today, too. I had it up there. I was drinking a latte out of it And you get a TFNN Tiger mug. They got a tiger mug. Tell me wow We grow No, we're not feeling it today. Okay, that's all right. He had a big morning First time on skates. I tell you it's not easy folks and my back is paying for it a little bit But it was the best time ever All right, let's see how the VIX is doing as the market is only gonna go up in the future. I kid VIX 12 23 Yesterday we hit 11 81 And interesting we actually get a little bit of a spike there. I mean 12 That's a minute chart just to see the reaction After the press conference comes out at about 2 o'clock. We're sitting at 12 and change Yeah, well what gets in the way of this market between making all-time highs man Well, the chairman could get in the way in about seven minutes But I don't know if he's gonna get in the way after that dot plot I mean breaking that down one step further and where were we? Yeah, the two-year yield just dropped 20 basis points to 4.53 percent They slashed their projections for PC inflation to 2.8 this year and core PC E to 3.2 That's their preferred inflation gauge. They're at five and a quarter percent. They think their preferred inflation gauge is 2.8 to 3.2 percent depending on headliner core Bloomberg economics Bloomberg economics chief US economist Anna Wong I agree with this to some degree and you know We were talking about Kevin Hicks was talking about it many people saying, you know Maybe they come a little hawkish right now saying the market might be getting ahead of itself when you add up the dot plots And you add up their projections. They really didn't push back The rate hold was widely expected But the question was what extent the Fed would acknowledge the end of the tightening cycle We now have our answer the updated dot plot and tweaks to the policy statement both quite dovish or a strong indication That the tightening cycle is over our baseline is for the Fed to begin cutting rates in March 2024 Pop the bubbly folks pop the champagne. I mean if they wanted to in March They had to get ahead of it this meeting because they only have January So they wouldn't want to surprise the market in January with only one meeting Maybe you give an indication January you give a greater indication and by March You end up Making that potential cut and that March meeting when's that March meeting tell me my birthday March 20th line it up, baby My birthday I Can't forget that one right S&P's trading higher by 35 points right now Nasdaq 100 up by 133 we jump over to crude Yeah, even crude catches a bid you got a weaker dollar You're gonna get more expensive commodities crude 69 56 right now priced in US dollars gold contract continuing to climb 2021 right now and we jump to the all-important notes and bonds boy, and it's not stopping right It is not The tenure up more than a full point the third year up a point and a half the five-year up 25 ticks All right, let's pull up the the yield curve as we wrap this up a bit As the chairman begins talking in four and a half minutes right at 230 we'll air that live coming up right here on Tiger TV and Yeah, look at the mammoth moves a one-year down 14 basis points to five percent Basically a two-year down 20 basis points the three-year 20 basis points the five-year down 18 basis points the 10 year down 14 and even the 30 year down eight to nine basis points Interesting along the curve especially out the two-year the five-year the projections from where we go All right folks stay tuned, so we'll be coming back. That was a quick one Tommy.  Oh We're a little tired today. That's okay. I know we had a big morning Okay, we'll get it for you. We had a big morning. We were on the ice at 11 o'clock folks till 12 15 S&Ps I was stalling a bit. We're at 47 32. We're stones throw away from all-time highs. That's it. We're done.


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and the Yankees tonight as he personally looks to get back in the wind column and then the Yankees do as well. Yeah he wants to bounce back from that last out he had out in Oakland Bobby last to just three and two thirds innings he gave up five runs the Yankees did win that game against the A's though seven to six and let's face it since early June after he lost to the Yankees he lost his last time on May 31st Jamison Tyone is a perfect seven and oh and the team is eleven and four in those fifteen starts he's been one of Aaron Boone's best starting pitchers lately however his last two months are a tale of two Tyones July at an ERA just over one while this month so far as he goes out there for a start tonight his ERA is near four and a half so I asked Aaron Boone if he's noticed a difference in the last two months with Tyone I think he's thrown the ball really well you know sometimes these outings you know sometimes it's it's one pitch that you don't execute that they take advantage of that maybe when you're going through a good stretch they didn't and you know sometimes that's the difference between a tremendous ERA or a low wanted a short short sample so I feel like he's thrown the ball really well I feel like it's coming out very well if he's maintained his stuff throughout the year and you know hopefully go out if it's just a good one tonight but I feel like he's in a good spot we've talked about John Carlo the past couple of nights obviously and you said controlling the strike zone physically healthy balance and the swing decision what about the balance in the lineup I was just looking at the numbers and standing and Rizzo we're in the lineup together John Carlo this month is sitting almost four hundred so how much does the balance have to do with the two I think the balance is definitely helped no question you know forces different pitching decisions on a given night you know makes you probably have to make a move or two more than you normally would when you could just let somebody roll through a certain part of the lineup so yeah I think the balance is definitely helped but more than that the balance of quality players quality hitters I think this has helped everyone


So let's think about, for a moment, the sustainability of exploitation of a resource. How long can we do it for? And that depends on your perspective. You might wish to make a lot of money very quickly out of exploiting a resource and be thinking, oh, if it lasts 10 to 20 years, I'm not going to be around after that. Let's go for it. And that's the classic fisherman's dilemma, in fact, that you don't want your competitors to take the last cod out of the ocean. You're going to go get it first. So there's a degree of mutual distrust about the way you exploit a resource. But there are many resources that we regard as sustainable. So sustainable or renewable. I might use that sort of interchangeably. And there are some that are quite clearly, like the sun. Sun, solar, sustainable for billions of years. We'd be crazy, you know, not to use this as a source of energy. Of all the possible sources of energy we have, that beats the definition of sustainable. If you like, as far as we're concerned, almost infinitely in terms of time. There are other renewable resources, though, which fundamentally depend on the time scale that you're thinking about. For example, if you were somebody living in an age when wood burning was the primary source of heat for warmth and cooking, you'd think that trees were a renewable and sustainable resource because the population size wasn't sufficient to diminish the size of the stock. As population increases, then clearly your view of what was sustainable or not in terms of forest would change. For example, the British used so much wood in the construction of their navy and merchant fleet that they had driven the stock of timber to very low levels and were forced to start importing timber to supply their needs in that regard from other countries. And there are plenty around that they could go to and acquire timber. As you probably know, one of the first places that was settled in Australia very quickly after the first fleet of the British arrived was to send a group to Norfolk Island. And they were sent there, not originally as the hardcore criminals, but as people to exploit the timber and the flax, as reported by early explorations, by Captain Cook. Now the timber turned out to be useless for what they wanted it for. It was a hope that that would supply spas and equipment for the ships. And it turned out that the Norfolk pines were actually not good enough for that. And eventually the flax proved to be the wrong kind of flax so that they ultimately, having treated it as a hardcore penal colony, abandoned the island for some period of time. So it depends on your view of the resource and how quickly you're going to use it, or how fast, whether it's sustainable or not. I would like to now turn to energy resources. I've already said you're crazy not to think about that. By the way, the way the sun differentially heats up our atmosphere leads to movement of the atmosphere itself, and we call that wind. So as long as the sun shines, you'll get wind with an atmosphere on this planet. We also, as you well know, are located at just the right distance from the sun with the available incoming radiation and the atmosphere we have that most of the H2O water occurs as liquid water. And we can also, I'll just abbreviate that, so long as that keeps going and as long as we've got winds and we've got an atmosphere we will get liquid water so we can exploit water running downhill as an infinitely available resource to power supplies with energy and supplies with other needs like being able to drink it. So there's this group. Timescale, irrelevant as far as humans are concerned, that's always going to be there as far as we're concerned. But I would like to address another source of energy that, of course, is a hot topic in terms of our current view of how we should use it. And these are the carbon-based energy forms, so oil, gas, coal, peat, et cetera. Now, I should tell you that I'm a geologist and you might immediately think that would label me as an arch exploiter, a pillager of the earth and all those epithets that are cast at some geologists. That's an acceptable criticism, but I would say that geologists actually have probably a view of the earth that is longer and more balanced than many other sciences. And there are ways of saying we recognize everything that's wrong with taking these materials and burning them to supplies with energy. Now, all of these, in a sense, are potentially non-renewable. Why would I label them non-renewable? Well, all of these primarily require some length of time and elevated pressures and temperatures bearing them in the earth's crust to convert them to a form where we can use them. Oil, after all, is essentially the product of the death and preservation of marine plankton. So all of these are carbon-hydrogen-based forms. There's some oxygen in there, too, but CHO compounds. Gas is essentially a gaseous form of oil. Just is made at a lower pressure and temperature window than oil. If you pressurize gas to greater depths and heat it up a little more, you convert gas to oil. They occur together. All of this, though, takes millions of years to form. So a plankton falling to the bottom of the ocean now, and it has to be anoxic. The bottom of the ocean has to be anoxic to allow it to stay as CH and not respire back to carbon dioxide and water. The bottom of an anoxic ocean, and you bury that carbon-hydrogen compound with other sediment, mud, you can eventually, after a long period of time, convert it to these forms of energy. It takes a long time. The rate at which we extract these exceeds the rate at which it's being replenished in the Earth. These are going to run out because we're consuming them at such a rate. Coal, similarly. These are land-based plants. We're lucky there are plants and photosynthetic plants and planks on around that have given us this as an energy source for several hundred years. Pete is a soggy, damp version of coal. It's on its way to becoming coal, but it has not been compacted, pressurized, heated long enough yet to turn it into coal. But you can burn Pete as long as you get the water out of it. So here are, I would argue, non-renewable energy sources. We are using them faster than they're being replenished.