Week four in NFL DFS is another one where we've got a pretty clear game We want to stack for this week with that being the Miami Dolphins taking on in the Buffalo Bills a couple of games That are not too bad for stacking, but there is a premier game We're going to want to build around for this week Our job is to find ways to build around that game without Being entirely in line at the public trying to find some salary savers there and that's not easy So we're going to break down that game where I talk about this slates in whole and talk about a hair place at each position To get you ready for the week for NFL DFS main slate welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and fan dual research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandal research joint heroes always by Brandon gandula checking out on Twitter at 13 he is a senior managing editor for fan dual research Brandon. We are on to week number four. How you doing today? You know, you always ask me that It's a hard one to answer. I'm gonna I'm just gonna say that up front, but I'll just say I'm doing good I'll see this is the best rebuttal to me saying that half of Pennsylvania is the Midwest because that's my contention is that Philly is definitely not Midwest But I think that like your area the Western half is Midwest But if you were a true midwesterner you would say good, how are you like that's the way it would go whether you were like actively getting your arms sawed off or you were the most blissful person on the planet you would say good How are you like I was I had went into the hospital because my appendix was like bursting once and the doctor asked How you doing? It's like good. How are you like this is the best rebuttal to me saying that your half of Pittsburgh or sorry Your half of Pennsylvania is the Midwest. I mean my half is like the middle third of the state So yeah, but like what I'm saying is that Pittsburgh feels like the Midwest to me Yeah, people say that it's not why you say it like it's an insult. It's better than being the east coast I've lived in the east coast for the past eight years, and I'm back in the Midwest Why do you think that is it's one of it? It's one of those is it is it more? Midwest or northeast and I think it's more northeast I think I think the northeast just basically ends at the corner like that 90 degree angle of Pennsylvania. Yeah By the way, I meant no disrespect to the east coast. It's about time zones. You should sound it It's about it's about time zones east coast time zone is terrible mid central time is good very good time of that like game starting at 715 said 815 so it's not about the people on the east coast. They were lovely It's about the time zone It's trash and I'm very happy back in the central time zone with Brandon is is making things complicated for me geographically I mean you asked me how I'm doing every podcast we do I either say good and move on or I Start elaborating but today, you know, I just Caught out that it's a tricky question to answer. I already know next week You're gonna say good. How are you as a way to like throw me out of it? I know past it. Okay. Anyway week four is main slate brand It looks kind of like our flavor of main slate because it's got some games that are pretty fun for stacking It's got some mid salaried running backs who I like quite a bit with like projectable volume They get early down work passing game work goal line work. I feel like to me This is my favorite slate so far. Are you getting a similar vibe from it? It's up there. It's it's you know out of the four. It's definitely one of the one of the top four so far this year, but We do love games that we can stack because we stack games. I think more than most people do It's you know our problem. It was but yeah, I think we're still we tend to be I think beyond quarterback We stack more than others do Yeah, we always have the the mini stacks. There are a lot of different ways to get access to those But you know a good example Well, I was gonna say a good example feels like Even Pittsburgh and Houston like we'll find ways to mini stack certain games. I could see that's that's that's in play That's why I hesitated, but it was just the first one I saw and I was like like some value receivers for Houston You know, I'll I'll play some George Pickens with those You know with Tankdale, but you know, just just figuring out the stacks is kind of the whole It's become the whole purpose of the podcast. Yeah, and we have some We have some running backs again whole purpose of the podcast used to be how can we get to the Superstar running backs? That's no longer really the case So now it's how do we stack the games? We like what do we do a little bit differently? How do we find those value stacks? So gonna probably put like the stack counter on like a thousand for this week Yeah, don't play a stack drinking game. That would be very bad for your health Do not advise that we're gonna dive in and break down this slate talking about injuries talking about game stacks Our top plays at each position and much more in just one second First a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast still two episodes of the solo shot left before the season wraps up via Tom Vecchio So make sure you check out that both here and on Fandwall TV plus and the Fandall YouTube page also USC via Austin Swain for The whenever UFC has a card as well all right here in the same number fire daily fantasy podcast feed So go search for that wherever you get your podcast Do you want to watch the heat check and the solo shot along with covering the spread up in Adams and everything else that Fandall TV Has to offer go to Fandall comm slash watch or download Fandall TV plus on Amazon fire Apple TV or Roku along with the transition to Fandall research We do have a free play each and every week over on Fandall research. 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The app is so easy to use There's a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more So if it's a fandall.com a kickoff the NFL season Fandall official partner of the NFL Must be 21 plus and president select states Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino llc First online real money wager only $10 first deposit required Bonus issued is non-letrable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt restrictions applies to terms at sportsbook dot fandall dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash rg in colorado iowan michigan New jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois tennessee and virginia call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in arizona 1 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or is the cc pg dot or slash chat connecticut 1 800 9 with it in indiana 1 800 5 2 2 40 700 visit ks gambling health dot com in cancels 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in louisiana visit md gambling health at origan maryland 1 800 gambler dot net in west virginia call 1 800 5 2 2 40 700 in wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call you 100 3 2 7 50 50 For 24 7 support in massachusetts or call 1 8 7 7 8 hope to lie or text open lie in new york Let's dig in now to our slate overview for week number four brandon I think we talked about a little bit already, but it seems like this slate revolves around stacking bills dolphins and I would say to a certain extent to chargers raiders and then Finding the mid-range running backs you like most what to you is the key to this slate right now Yeah chargers raiders depends a lot on the health of jimmy garoppolo For me, but I know that's sort of implied with with you know, what you said I just wanted to kind of clarify that but if we get garoppolo Kind of two games that are pretty easy to stack even if you account for the downgrade for Mike Williams being out I'm shout out Mike Williams. I always hate the season enders. Um, yeah, especially the fun players Not anybody we don't want them at anybody but like bummer for big mic The bumps and bruises guys missing a couple games. It's like it still sucks, but uh, yeah, especially bad, but you know I think that the thing that jumps out to me is So we're talking about one game in particular Maybe two games Maybe for us. I feel like there's going to be a third game that we Kind of bump into that tier is the same tier as uh, that chargers game, but You know, you have to figure out ways to be a little bit different And so You know, you don't want to just say well, okay, here's the game to stack Let me just play that But you also can do that because you can find other ways To build unique lineups while having exposure to players in the best games, especially whenever those players are high salary plays and So, you know, I just kind of wanted to get out of front of like It sounds like hey, yeah, let's stack the best game of the week like that's But you don't have to overthink it to that degree and you can find ways uh to differentiate um You can pivot within the same game, which is always something that we like to explore So I just kind of wanted to to shout that one out as we talk about how to stack this game We're probably going to come up with some different ways to do it That does not mean that we either only like the the most obvious plays Or don't like the obvious plays and we just want to like kind of Get weird with it. So yeah, it's kind of a roundabout way to say like You know, you can do a lot with uh, some good games And you don't need to overthink it And I think that it is a good slate for our general like our thesis for like playing tournaments dfs is be different without being dumb And because there are enough good plays this week at least based on my view of it You could disagree, which is fine. Uh, but like my view of it is There are enough good plays this week where I can pivot without being dumb And I think that's very attractive. So I like this slate a lot. Um, I think it does revolve around identifying the mid range running backs You like most because those will be the focal points once again this week and like I'm just going to keep on doing it until they price these guys up, uh, to the point where They're no longer the values that they are and until we get Legitimate workhorse running backs with fantastic workloads. I do feel like it's the right move to Be pretty aggressive In Getting to those mid range running backs with pretty good roles Let's dig in now to the injuries impacting the week number four main slate. Derek karmis practice wednesday He's expected to sit this week with a shoulder injury which puts james winston Back in line for a revenge game against his tampa bay buccaneers The saint's also getting alvin kimera back off his suspension this week. His salary is 6500 dollars So any interest in kimera or the saint's past catchers with james at the helm? I think this one's kind of a loaded question because I Pointed out how concentrated james winston's targets were um On monday when I was going through our play-by-play query And I liked it You thought that maybe there was a lack of efficiency but have since kind of Hold me things that maybe indicate that you're okay with the past catchers. So like Surprise surprise a bit of a discrepancy there But also something that might be a discrepancy between Us on how we view alvin kimera. Oh, it seems like you like him a good amount So i'm open to the pitch because this is a player who I have struggled with for a couple years now. Um The the upside is Not as high it feels like anymore. I know he has like what the sixth touchdown game, but His game-to-game red zone share. I think is going to be Still maddening. So what are your thoughts on on kimera and sell me on him this week? So I think the sell is that there's no jimma williams. Um, which means there's one less guy to take away some carries from them I think that's a positive uh for him. I think it's a positive that um The running backs who could fill in like kendry miller obviously like hasn't had a lot of time to make a name for himself, but like, you know I feel like if he had done that he probably had gotten a bigger workload last week. So that's a benefit there and They also don't have their quarterback, which means they may lean a bit more on kimera than the otherwise would now I hate that line of logic when it comes to Typical situations. They're like, okay, you know, it's a situation where their efficiency will decrease quite a bit But and it will go down Um Without Derek car, but we know james winston is one of the more capable backups in football It's a little decreased, but it's not going to be like a tim boilzak wilson situation when it comes to the quarterback. So I feel like to me It's kind of the best case scenario for kimera where he comes back To a team that really could use him Because they haven't gotten great production from the running backs thus far. They're kind of banged up there The buck's defense is still very good against their run, but maybe not quite as dominant with no endowment can sue I think that benefits that he's a benefactor of that as well So I think it just checks a lot of boxes and I don't think people will be on kimera this week The projections for him look pretty middling. So like won't be an optimizer love either The projection are middling because tason hill can steal goal line work like that part matters too But is that not accounted for at a salary of $6,500 for a very dynamic player so We've done research and You know game totals like over unders are not necessarily The most important for running backs This one has a total of 40 and a half My question to you is do you view kimera as someone you would play Without the expectation that that game Really goes over without the expectation of running it back With any buck in years Do you think he's kind of a one-off play or are you kind of thinking Well, hey if this game has something to it Kimera is a great play. I think you could run it back with chris god when it's 65 if you wanted to I'm not necessarily like itching to do that personally But like I think it's at least an option that you do have so I think you could I don't think this will be a game. I want to stack personally But I think that kimera's workload is good enough to overcome that where I like him a lot at $6,500 Yeah, I think Again, we're talking stacks. That's the key word for this week if I'm playing kimera. I'm probably finding ways To bring it would it be with godwin primarily it would most likely just be with godwin So I think that makes sense. Yeah, I think he is the best option there Austin eckler got in a limited practice wednesday as he works his way back from an ankle injury Still something there's a decent shot that he does wind up sitting though He who shall not be named will not be my player pool regardless of whether eckler plays Mike williams as we said done for the or the torn acl We'll circle back. Is it pouring? Oh, no, there's something outside. Okay. I thought it was like pouring rain. I was like, can I go show my windows? Anyway, um We'll circle back to the chargers in the bookmaker section. Jimmy garoppolo is in caution protocol Team is optimistic. He can get cleared to play in week four according to jerry fowler of espn But garoppolo did not practice wednesday Probably needs a limited session thursday and then a full session friday to get cleared Potential shootout the chargers. We'll talk about that game in the bookmaker section jaylin waddle practice wednesday He's expected to be cleared in time to play this week more on them in the bookmaker section same thing with anthony richardson He's on track to be cleared and that game will also be in the bookmaker section spoiler alert Devo sandal mispractice wednesday with rib and knee injuries Sounds like it's maintenance But let's talk about the 49ers here. They are pretty big favorites against the arizona cardinals 14 point favorites The cardinals have been feisty but I think this 14 point spread is justified So Where are you at on debo mccafrey? Ayuk kiddo in that situation? I almost made a whole trend on this offense to kind of figure out Whether we can kind of just get there or if We can be okay avoiding them They got Elijah Mitchell more involved last week early on uh christian mccafrey had played 90 percent 100 percent of the first half snaps Through the first two weeks and then 65 percent in week three That sounds like it was something that they were planning to do to kind of get Mitchell more involved after He didn't have a single touch In week two and they addressed it. So that kind of limits my FOMO of mccafrey Tight end is really really bad So I'm still I think I'm just kind of out and hope that it doesn't burn me and that they just spread out all the touchdowns So that's where I am same. Yeah, I I feel like it's a good week to to rest Not like sit them but like not use debo as a running back as often stuff like that So to me it's a good situation where I'd rather just kind of hope like you said they they spread things out And I don't have to miss out too much there Just as hill odo beckham and rasha bateman all this practice wednesday for the ravens did get where we are Ronnie stanley back in practice though Hill has a toe injury. It's an ankle for bateman hamstring or ankle for beckham hamstring for bateman Gus edwards though was able to practice despite leaving sunday's game to be evaluated for a concussion He didn't return, but it sounds like john harbaugh doesn't think he's in concussion protocol Probably should know I don't know It's a tough match up here for the ravens against a very very good browns defense How do the injuries alter your view of lamar jackson mark andrews and ze flowers? Again, just lowers my like fomo on not having these guys We talk pretty often about tight end upside and who has it and why it's important Mark andrews obviously has it I don't know if it's gonna present itself this week But if you play pretty heavy mark andrews and he is the only tight end who does anything The salary is down to 6700. I think there's a lot of leverage that you would gain there I just don't see myself with a whole lot of that exposure And then as far as like lamar goes There are quarterbacks with upside on the slate some of them have potential matchups or injuries to them You know to themselves or to you know, they're they're past catchers Again, I think it's just a differentiation stack I don't think it's we talk about being different without being dumb. Yeah Land Lamar and mark andrews when nobody's there Probably not the dumbest thing Yeah, I think the andrews part specifically is enticing Um, just because his salary is down like he said, I think he was 8 000 in week one or week two when he came back And his salary is 67 now And they might not have bateman or beckham. So like the target share should be pretty big for andrews there I think that's that's interesting. I would say like ze flowers is like a salary saver potentially a wide receiver But I don't think I'm gonna get to lamar this week And that's the first time this this year. I've said that where I've I've been very into lamar this year and It hasn't worked out. That's not the reason I'm not going back I'm not going back because I just really respect this defense and don't want to deal with that So, um, that's my primary motivation there other other side of that game cream hunt miss practice wednesday with groin and rib injury It sounds like he'll play but he is definitely banged up already They get the raven this week whose defense is also banged up So what's your view of Jerome Ford knowing that hunt already is not a hundred percent? So you have 58 percent first half snap rate um, again, I I'm Really trying to go into this year Not looking at salaries as much and then if I like someone I'll look it up. Yeah 6400. I think they're I'd probably rather play chimera at the similar salary That might be where I am with like I think I'm gonna have to rank chimera against a lot of chimera coming back against a lot of running backs who Frankly aren't as talented, you know But there's one who is Who's that gonna be rank for me? uh chimera I'm not gonna build miles sanders and I get with rank for me chimera Jerome Ford and divan h h an For this week specifically H-han uh-huh chimera Ford Yeah, I think I'm the same and I think I want all three in my player pool I might put all three in the same lineup just because that combo probably will be pretty scarce um Because like they're gonna cannibalize each other in terms of roster rate So I might play all three together because it saves me a lot of salary Um, I think that might be the way I play things. I think all three are very viable this week Ford or Ramon de Stevenson both at 64 Really?  I cannot stand Over under nine and a half targets for Ramon de Stevenson over under 12 yards on those nine targets It's the steepest offense has ever existed It's a it's a zeke revenge game. So if they do get near the goal line, he's gonna score all the touchdown Yeah, I just like Like Zeke's workload went up a bit last week in a positive script Which means that they get ahead we'll see more zeke if they fall behind that means their offense sucks Which it does so like I don't really want a piece of that in a total where their implied total is 18 and a half Like yeah, I'm good um Bryce young got in a full practice of the panthers wednesday So he should be good to go this week Jonathan mingo Got in a limited session giving him a shot to advance out of concussion protocol by sunday Panthers face the vikings How are you viewing the panthers with young back as a starter? another revenge game speak speaking of which adam felon Salaries up to 6800 Uh, I do this more on the recap show which i'm no longer On so I gotta take take advantage where where I can but if I told you that adam felon salary was 6800 as of week throw out my mouth immediately Oh Just before the season because it's you know, the season is the season always gets crazy and it gets crazy a lot sooner than it feels Uh Like it does but yeah, even tariff salary than like gave davis chris godwin jerry judy Do you have interest in him? I don't know this like no, um I'd rather not, um Like rather not but if you're playing If you're playing justin jefferson Like he's up like if garoppolo plays we had to go to meyers at 69 I think meyers is infinitely better than felon in that salary range. So I would go Meyers in that range. Um, I like 2 2 atwell a bit lower than felon a bit more I think michael pitman is around there at 72 Like him more and you know my feelings in general towards him like Uh tanked out 62. So like I just don't think that felon pops now the one counterpoint would be There's been a lot of negative sentiment around brice young and I feel like the fact that he's starting may lower The projected roster for felon, but like that total hasn't budged since it came out that young's gonna play and the spread lengthened by half a point, but like I don't know. I don't like Bryce young's first two games were against the panthers where he had no dj shark and the second He was against saints with a very good defense. Like I think people are being a bit too harsh with him um Like do we really want to upgrade the offense because it's anti dalton? I don't so I do if people If people are like out on the panthers because it's brice young then maybe I could be intrigued by By felon then but like I think I'd rather go out the other guys in the 6000 range Yeah, I mean it is I guess worth mentioning The felon here had What 14 targets in week three? Yeah two and nine the first two games and the two was even with dj shark out so Yeah, I think a lot of people Going to be tempted by that that we don't through 58 times in that game. That was a 24 target share Like it's not you have like a 40 share even yeah one thing I'm not trending this but another thing to keep in mind is he scored two weeks in a row Right. Um, although adam felon is the regression winner. Yeah, I was just gonna throw that caveat in there that he's never learned the meaning of regression, but You know, it's double barrel freedom rockets, you know middle fingers up to regression his entire career Yeah, it's just important to keep track of that because touchdowns lead to fantasy points obviously and that leads to an increase in your salary And then at a certain point you're not gonna score because you don't score every week. So I think I'm out on felon.  I also took the under in this game So I'm not as enthused about it as the general betting public is from a stacking perspective A game I am okay with though is the dolphins and the bills Let's dive in now to our bookmaker section. It is a premier game on this slate Dolphins and bills total is 53 and a half no other game within uh, or higher than 48 and a half The spread is tight. It is at three points. My model actually has this a bit tighter than that personally So I did take the dolphin's money line as well We obviously want to stack this game. I'm not gonna ask you about that But I will ask you what is your preferred route to doing so when you are stacking this game? just one Like one stack that I give you a single entry lineup You're considering roster rates. You're considering salary. How you stacking it? um I think It's it's a it's a really tricky one because there there really are so many ways that you can go I think james cook is part of if i'm really trying to like Get different. I think cook makes sense. Mm-hmm I'd probably then go It's this is the this is a really complicated one because these teams do spread the ball around enough So the point where I can consider various options, right? Both quarterbacks are in play We have three running backs and play in this game At least three receivers It's no real tight ends unless you're just kind of getting access to a high High total game. I think you might want to get access to a high total game this week Yeah, so I guess the tight ends are in play. Um Give me Give me to give you mine because I know mine. Yeah, okay I like the james cook one Because we talked a lot about his red zone role last week and it still sucks But like he had three out of nine red zone chances last week And you can pivot off of the dolphin's running backs in this exact same game by using cook at 68 I think that's pretty enticing the yard has been very good 159 and 122 the past two weeks for him That's pretty attractive.  So I think that a to a waddle cook stack makes a lot of sense And I'd probably toss in Throw a dart at a board between docks and docks and dalton decay and figure out 21 Knox is a better red zone roll. So for a one I'd probably go with nox, but I think that I think that's the way I'd want to go waddle specifically if you give me one single entry lineup I Would really really really like to have him in there personally See, I was thinking waddle would catch some popularity because the salary is low enough. Sure. Um What about to a cook waddle tyriek and you say They ran for all the touchdowns last week basically, right? What if this week they throw four of them? I mean they could Um Like two was I wouldn't even for four touchdowns last week. I think right. Yeah as a four. Yeah Like I mean they they ran for all those extras that like There were there were three separate guys who had four touchdowns for them last week, which is insane I would even still consider Another bill in that in that stack. Sure one of the tight ends. Sure. I think that's totally fine Let me plug into stupid defense here. Um, let's go with the Bengals and then okay go back to miami and buffalo It's like you could get to One of the guy it had to be in it, you know, we already have nox in that one Yeah, so I think nox having him in there I think Gabe Davis would probably be one of the guys who Fits in the waddle discussion where he catches roster rates as a result of the fact that he's in this game The role has not been perfect. Uh four seven and four targets so far Uh, he's getting downfield work though two two and three deep targets across the three games for a 30 a 39% deep share so I don't like I think for game stacks. Davis is fully in play, right?  You think the odds that Gabe Davis is involved are probably decent I just they got to be high. Yeah So I think it depends on like if he winds up being like chalk then it's like, ah That's scary, but it's still a pretty big slate Yeah with 12 games. So I don't know how chalky we'll get for anyone in particular Um, but yeah, I think I think what I realized is The way that I'd probably stack this is multiple Like players on each side, which usually a stack is a quarterback and then a player on his team and a player on the other team I think you can easily justify Like especially Hill and waddle because they're gonna be buying for 70 ish percent of the targets, which is absurd. Like that's not an exaggeration. Yeah 60 conservatively So I think that I think Tua and his two receivers might be kind of the way that I Would try to differentiate. I'm not gonna do this in like my my main lineup There you know, you don't need that amount of upside and like risk that if this game doesn't go The way you think it does But again, if I'm trying to be different a little bit without being silly That's a good one Let's talk here about the dolphins running backs both mostert and h. Ann got pretty big salary boost Mostert is 79 up 1300 from last week h. Ann at 64. I think he was pretty low. He was 5000 flat last week I think that it feels point cheesy to go h. Ann, but also Like he wasn't just like a product of garbage time there. Like he was involved immediately and like they were Consciously getting in the football now. Does that change with waddle being back because mostert and h. Ann played On the they were on the field together for a good number of snaps I think mostert's first test and I think it was like 65 percent and h. Ann was 49 48 percent So So talk to me about those two guys specifically mostert is 79 h. Ann at 64 I think it would be point jc to go with h. Ann if The game wasn't As appealing as it is and if he wasn't involved in the first half He was involved in the first half last week first drive And this game could be really really really fun. It could be it's a divisional game that always gets me a little bit nervous um But this is not oh this guy really broke out in the second half We're projecting him then like it's like basically elijah mitchell played Three first half snaps and then put up like 150 yards and two touchdowns right then they're in a bad game And it's like well, he's got to get more work. This is different Because again, he was involved early. This is a great game. So I don't think it's that point jc especially with the salary being where it is so uh I think that that mostert is very much in play especially as because everything everybody's going to have The same thought process as more just play h. Ann and save the salary that makes mostert fun um, especially if you know this game's tight and they kind of lean on him a little bit more but Think the way that you've raised it I don't know if it was on slack or what maybe it was on the recap show And I was listening to like you can't just put h. Ann back like no on the sideline like I said back in the bottle Twice which annoyed me. Um, so I'm glad that you listen. Oh, I remember it because you you were so bad at podcasting I know you take away brandon and I get washed system podcaster. Obviously Uh, you can make a josh alan staphon dig stack work with divan h. Ann and jill and waddle in it I put dos knocks in there too again benefiting from the game environment. I think kinkades fine too Prefer knocks but fine with kinkade um Like you can make that lineup work 6400 left for uh, a running back receiver and a flex that's very doable on this specific slate So I think even though the salaries are high you can make stacks in this game work without without bending over backwards too much Yeah, and again, not every stack needs to be featuring multiple like players from from these games But even with the way that we're talking through I mean, we have two quarterbacks three running backs That's five players four receivers if you include davis basically two tight ends you can you know punt I don't want to say punt with but Yeah, you you could build honestly like 25 lineups Stacking this game as your primary focus And you can have exposure to it so many different ways where you're not just like well You know if tiring kill rolls is ankle in the first quarter of like my day is done Like you can still have a lot of ways to have access to this game And that's where I love most about particular games because it's a little bit spread out But overall it's concentrated on a handful of guys who we know have the chance to to sort of Burst out so yeah, I love it I think that that makes it kind of like one of the better Like it's kind of what you want from a game stack like we know the guys who can put up the big points Sure, they're a high salary, but they're worth it individually independent of the game script So I think that that's to me is pretty enticing Let's move on now to the second game before this week That is the raiders and the chargers and this one does revolve around an injury question here Total is 48 and a half chargers favor by five and a half right now And that part will fluctuate based on the availability of jimmy garoppolo as mentioned before they expect him to go didn't practice wednesday, but Keep tabs on him because that'd play a big role in this we want garoppolo to keep this game close But let's talk about this game with garoppolo first. It sounds like that is the most likely scenario What's your confidence level in stacking it and how much does that shift if garoppolo is ruled out? another divisional matchup Never love those, but it's the first time around so that helps and new quarterback for one of the teams um I'm trying to think of ways reasons not to like it because it involves the chargers Trying to like be pessimistic and say well, but I can't find too many reasons uh to be down on this if garoppolo plays It's kind of a joke on slack, but jimmy garoppolo as I point out often is an extremely efficient quarterback and Efficiency is enough. Um It's not to say that we would play him But if he can maintain an offense and throw the ball in the vicinity of the bonte atoms in jacoby miers Right keep the ball moving hand it off to jox jacos That's what I want. Um, so if garoppolo plays This game is about a half tier below uh buffalo in miami, but I think it's pretty close. I think it's a full tier below personally um just because like Like if I have garoppolo in for this game, you know that I despise the chargers, right? That's that's established. Um, I despise the chargers my model still has them as being a good value I have garoppolo projected as in I cannot find one trying to look for here. Um, So I have the chargers favored in my model by Oh my goodness. Oh, I went sort of the wrong way I'm a mess. Okay. I have the chargers favored by 5.7. So Spread's appropriate now even though it's kind of baking in the fact that garoppolo may not play Like I think they're putting in like 70 percent jimmy for this spread like if if garoppolo gets cleared then it's probably Like a four and a half point spread or so if I had to guess so then whereas the dolphin's patriots is effectively a toss up for me So tighter spread. What's that dolphin's bills? Patriots would be a nightmare. Um I think I like that like this one's indoors. I think that's the key key benefit or key and I was like I like both allen and two uh more than I like her word Personally, sure. I think I think really what I meant to say was I think most people would have a whole tier between these games. Sure. I think it's a little bit closer Okay, because who's gonna play keen and allen over Tyree against the fond eggs. Sure That's fair. Now herbert will be probably a lower roster than both allen and two. That's fair Quarterback roster rate is always overblown. Nobody really gets popular We've you know, we've trended that in the past but We have that potential value With joshua palmer We have I would call a value in jacobi mires again. We're we're assuming the garoppolo plays And then there is a chance that we get austin echler back Yeah, and based on what they've gotten while he's been out I think that he would be very very very involved. Yeah, and he could bust open a slate because I mean, yeah, we have christian mccaffrey But he's probably not gonna play a full workload Even if that game stays close like if arizona is again feisty and keeps it close seems like they're conscious of his workload Then you're down to tony pollard already, but you have to go out of your way to roster austin echler in terms of salary and I think that that's really fun. So that's why I think it's a little bit closer Because you're probably gonna get ways to get access to this game That are pretty I don't want to say unique But again, you can probably play like keenan allen because his his salary is a bit too high But you're you're doing it for the leverage. Yeah I think that um the presence of some Okay value place here is part of why I do like it a lot Those guys are the two you mentioned jacobi mires and josh palmer palmer 61 his salary is I do like josh palmer because you go back to last year in the games where mike williams out, but keenan allen played Palmer got good work I think the situations where palmer falls flat are when he is like relied upon to be the guy But if you have a guy like allen who commands a lot of attention Then palmer can be more viable. Uh, the reason I like him of quinton johnston is that johnston I think ran 13 routes last week whereas palmer ran 33 pretty big gap between Their routes run Palmer as I said has been productive thus far now the one issue is that both the the one issue with palmer is that His snap rate will not increase because he's already been running every route effectively for this team And his yards per route run is 0.9 this year johnson's 0.7 And so like from a role change perspective palmer is not changing and they do Subtract mike williams, but they also potentially add back in austin eckler. So I like palmer But I think there are some paths to him disappointing And that's in play mires his path would be if groppler doesn't play. I think a groppler plays mires Doesn't really have a lot of paths to being underwhelming there. So uh, I need more thoughts for you on those two guys specifically now I Trust me. I trust you but I had to double check the yards per route run numbers because Those aren't very high. They're bad But you were right. So yeah, I was looking at it this morning. So It's not great. Um, what about herbert's where do you view just and herbert relative to Tua and alan for this slate? If i'm playing 10 lineups I think i'm just splitting them between alan and tua if i'm playing like 2025 Herbert's definitely in a conversation of someone i'm adding in Is he third for you? Overall No, I think we're talking Again, we're talking If it's we're talking about plays who can really change the slate and aren't super obvious. We have jail and herd sitting right there um That's really appealing. I'm not going to get too cute with lamar and put him over just and herbert based on the match up differential uh, I would say probably Anthony richardson is is the third place i'd go to free up more salary and we like that game We do uh, which we'll get to here in a second any final thoughts for you on uh chargers raiders before what actually let Let me ask you if garoppolo gets rolled out. How much do you downgrade? Myers downgrade. I think davante is super under salad 81 too. I should mention that Um, how much do you downgrade mires adams than the chargers guys? I downgrade it Fairly substantially again. I believe that jimmy garoppolo is a lot better than perception Uh, I you know, again, we don't like to say well cubies out just play the running back I still would have interest in josh jacob's his involvement is really really good for running back and you don't get that a lot um, I can see myself in that instance maybe like With the jacob's echelor stack. Yeah, so sure um I think jacob's is pretty good if this game if it has garoppolo 82. Um I probably wouldn't get there if there's no garoppolo personally, um, but Yeah, I think I would still wind up on some adams and some mires because they're so under salary But then it'd be an 8.9 point spread for me. I think uh, if there's no garoppolo Um, which would be pretty tough so Before I move on to talk about the rams and coles to get a question over on youtube From deacon to the legend talking about like general Um philosophy for single entry lineups. So Let's say brand and I give you a single entry lineup right now Are you starting with a game stack and then building in values around there? I think that's kind of what deacon was was asking here Are you starting with like a game you want to stack and then plugging in values in there? How are you building out that one single entry lineup? Yeah, starting with the game stack so qb past catchers most likely potentially running back on other team Instead of a past catcher, but definitely gonna have a stack and then from there I like to look at many stacks. So um, if there's like great standalone values i'll go there, but otherwise, um It's it's finding ways to mini stack these games up. Yeah, I think for me That's what I want to go to is I have my primary stack which involves the quarterback and then Finding mini stacks. So like for this week, I would have my qa Um waddle etc etc line up, but then I want to try to find okay Can I get in a stack on chargers raiders as well? Or settle for a second a secondary mini stack? So for me deacon it's revolving around a primary game stack that involves my quarterback and then hopefully one or two Secondary stacks, you know, a running back wide receiver running back tight end receiver tight end stuff like that Not involving the quarterback. So really is Trying to pin down two or three games because trying to identify Two games that go off is a lot easier than trying to identify seven So to me, that's why I focus that way, but good question deacon You know, it does start with the game stacks and then Really does revolve around game stacks in there as well Speaking of let's talk about the third game We may stack for this week and this one I think is very very in play for mini stacks and even a quarterback here That is the rams at the colts were right now. Uh, the colts are one and a half point favorites Technically the rams are the better money line. Uh, so it's it's just a toss up. Let's just say that Total is 46 and a half that is up a point from where it was earlier on this week. Anthony Richardson Practice wednesday in fold. He took the starter reps. So he should be cleared by sunday Got some guys in this game with really big usages. So how are you viewing this one relative to the rest of the slate brain? like it a lot various ways to go with it, I think it's a again, right for mini stacks and With the salaries being low just like It makes a lot of sense to kind of roll these players into Mini stacks. So that's basically the best thing I can say for it. Um, what about you? I agree with you because Well, I think that I looked at seventy six hundred dollars. Um I think that the mini stack options in this game are great that to me starts with the running backs um, I think that both zack moss and Kyron williams are among the two best running back plays on the entire slate williams salary seventy six hundred dollars zack moss in seventy three now you look at williams and The yardage has not been there so far this year. Um, so far He is averaging Let me see here Uh, 73 yards from scrimmage per game But the red zone roll is insane. He has a 69 red zone share For the rams this year carries four targets inside the red zone. He's getting literally everything so I think that's pretty fun as far as zack moss goes. Um moss comes in at 7300 dollars and He also is playing Basically every snap for this team. So zack moss salary is 73 hundred dollars. Uh, the two games he has played moss is averaging 24 carries and 3.5 targets per game. That is 31 carries plus two x targets per game 126 yards and a 53 red zone share so in this game You are getting two running backs with mid-range salaries who are playing effectively every snap One of whom is getting a lot of yardage and both guys getting a ton of red zone work now the one downside of moss is that He may lose red zone work to anthony richardson if richardson does play because richardson willing to run Towards the goal line as we saw in that uh that week two game where he left with a concussion but I feel like the other side of it is that richardson as a running quarterback should open up more lanes For zack moss to be an efficient runner. So to me The reason this game is attractive is because probably because i like richardson But also because I think both these running backs are among the best plays on the slate I also do like the pass catchers. So it's not just one route to stacking this game pukinakua salary 7500 michael pittman 72 2 2 atwell 63 all three of those guys are in play For this game and I think they're in play Beyond stacks. I think they're in play as one offs as well talking about pittman first He said double digit targets in all three games so far this year Which means he did have 11 targets in that first game with richardson 31 target share overall So far this year for pittman. He hasn't been getting a lot of deep work as I've talked about plenty of times of pittman, which is kind of annoying but I think the overall volume is so big And the fact that he is in a pretty attractive game honestly 72 Is also fun as far as rams go obviously nakua kind of came back to earth last week, but still had a good yardage still had Seven targets in that game 35 target share 2 2 atwell is the 22 target share 8 9 and 9 targets so far um and atwell also has 41 the deep targets so I feel like personally I can like many stacks both of the running backs and the wide receivers and that to me makes it a very attractive game brandon I want to have you talk about the running backs first then talk about the receivers as far as your view of them relative to the the slate as a whole Yeah, it's It's hard to rank them as a whole because I can't say that I like the receivers The most on the slate because I don't but as far as like the salaries go You know, we talked, you know, we had the question about Do we build around? You know, how do we basically build our main lineup or a single entry lineup? While i'm gonna build this week with Tua or alan i'll probably try to get to alan because Upside's a little more Bankable and he's got that rushing ability. Um tua has to do it all with yarn Like 2 2 atwell Zach moss like that kind of stack Is probably one of the first places i'm looking.  Um, I've been kind of tracking atwell pretty closely A lot of good underlying data had yards in the first game 119 I didn't score yards in the second game didn't score Scored the third game, but the yardage was down Target volume has been pretty steady If he gets you that touchdown with with the yardage like that salary, that's pretty much what you're gonna ask for He also almost scored twice on monday because he had that that run where he stepped out inside the five So he almost had two touchdowns in the true. It's a good call. Yeah, so I think he's a great play at the salary He's probably my when I was looking for value receivers to write up, you know and have as our as our loves He jumped out right away. So I think that for him his like the contenders in the low 6000 range for that spot are our t2 atwell tank del Probably ze flowers in that discussion too and then josh palmer And I think that because we have those guys it allows me to be more okay Not being super super into josh palmer beyond game stacks if you had to rank atwell del and palmer In a vacuum How are you ranking those three in a vacuum as in if they were in like the same game? Let's say. Yeah, let's say like you're not like you're not going like you don't have herbert And you don't have anthony rickinson like let's say you're not using quarterback from either game any of those games how do you rank them I still gotta like account for the game and i'd be lowest on the texans like game as a whole but yeah um If i'm getting the spirit of what you're asking yeah atwell del And palmer i think i'm the same way ranking them in the exact same order del would be higher if that game were more attractive um Well, no, I mean i met in a vacuum with regards like you don't already have herbert in your line Yeah, yeah, but that you still got a factor in just because i'm not stacking that game The game definitely matters. I just meant like you're not going out of your way in that lineup to stack chargers raiders Correct. Um, yeah, I gotcha Richardson number three for you at quarterback, right? Considering salary, I think so. Yeah, I don't I think so too. I don't think i'd be a consideration to staffer or no I don't think the single game upside is really there. I agree. Um I had some temptation and he'll have touched on regression because like They've played some pretty tough defenses so far. Seattle Seattle's not but like san francisco is very tough The Bengals are very tough. So I feel like eventually we'll see some upward regression But I don't know if it'll be enough where he's going to put out like a 28 point game Which I would still want for 6600 dollars personally 302 is not 350 and four Correct, which is what you want from a non running quarterback to a can get there herbert can get there Not convinced staffer can personally, okay Let's move now into our trends discussion Four week number four brandon You'll start things off by talking about air yards because it's something we cite in the show But have not discussed why we cite it so What to you is the key thing to know with air yards when filling out a lot of Yeah, I haven't talked to air yards yet in a trend or downfield targets, but we cite both of those I think they're very valuable. They're a big part of my process Um, they're baked in whenever we talk about downfield targets for me when I cite downfield targets I'm talking about targets that go at least 10 yards downfield for you It's a more deep target 16 plus yards downfield, but there's basically lines of demarcation at like 10 16 20 yards where The average target at those types of depths They go up and so Someone might have a 10 target game But they're all close to the line of scrimmage, which is very different That's like compared to 10 targets with five of them being downfield shots. So they're important And air yards are now pretty widely available So it's also easier to talk about from that sense But if you look, you know, I wanted to trend it kind of talk about why it matters if you look on a game to game basis It's hard to find a strong r-squared value for fandal points and you know just fandal points and receivers because scoring basically comes from You know You can have a lot of targets. You can have a lot of yards, but if you don't catch some of them You know that's different than someone who has four targets and scores twice or something. So Game to game. It's a little bit tricky, but you would still expect that game to game. There's a pretty strong r-squared value With the actual stats that make up fandal scoring It's 0.73 for receptions, which basically means that if you just know someone's Receptions you kind of know you can explain 73 percent of the scoring Or sorry for yards, it's 0.73 for receptions is 0.5 And then for touchdowns it's 0.58 But again, that's what we kind of expect and then for targets It's 0.32. So these are getting pretty low and air yards. It's even lower at a 0.22. So you say, okay, well Air yards alone, they can be really empty. They can be coming from quarterbacks. You suck whatever Like that's what people tend to say um prayer yards, right? uh For people who don't like air yards, but game to game everything's trickier If you scale it out to a full season and look at last year Over a larger sample this stuff really smooths out R-squared between yards and fandal points is a 0.96 because basically the guy's getting a lot of yards the guys scoring the touchdowns over a long sample having the most catches things like that 0.96 again for yards For catches 0.94 for touchdowns 0.76. So again, that that makes a lot of sense touchdowns do change week to week scoring a bit more than they do over the full season um, but air yards, it's a 0.81 Which means that you you could not know If guys were having quality targets catching them Being on a team that is scoring a lot of points If you just know how many air yards they have You know, you're basically like you can explain like over 80 percent of their fandal scoring that is What to me why these things matter because it's so easy we talked about adam feeling scoring You know certain players are going to have a lot of touchdowns Certain players are going to have not enough touchdowns It doesn't always work out but over a full season these things should smooth out So if you just know air yards, you kind of know opportunity And you know that over a larger sample players getting these opportunities are the ones that we want to target So again, you can kind of just google air yards. You'll find a lot of sources for it at this point I think it's great for me I included into an expected fandal points model. I talk about weighted targets I give targets that travel at least 10 yards downfield Extra weight based on you know the depth I give red zone targets extra weight I know not everyone's going to do that But air yards are important We haven't talked about we haven't really addressed that yet How do you find yourself using air yards and what do you think? Is the value behind using air yards in downfield targets? Yeah, I mean like we talked about with wide receiver I in order to like make a perfect line up for wide receiver, which is what you want You want upside they need to be able to get 85 yards or two touchdowns and it's hard to 85 yards without a ton of targets or some downfield targets and Most of the guys who get a ton of targets are high salaried If you're looking for like low salaried guys who can go off a lot of them are guys who are going to be like downfield merchants Guys who are going to get you bigger plays bigger plays come from Downfield targets to the most part. It's like tank del good amount of downfield work this past week That's why I like him also the fact that his quarterback cj stroud has been very efficient on those downfield targets It's not prairie yards because cj stroud rules and has played very well tank del the past couple of games One deep target in week two and then three this past week again for me 16 plus yards downfield That could also be a good counterpoint to me being Tepid on josh palmer because josh palmers eight out this year is almost 12 yards So although the yardage has not been there the potential for yardage is there, especially when those downfield throws are coming from justin herbert so Maybe I should be higher on palmer Thinking about that. So to me It really comes down like for a higher salaried guy like I don't really care about davonta adams their yards because he's getting 73 targets per game But if I need to find a value play who has the potential to go nuts You know benefit from variance that to me is a place that I want to turn to Yeah, I think I think this studs you make a good point It's not about like well someone has more air yards than Justin jefferson. Although I don't believe that's the case. Um, how why would they? But you know, you could look at uh like puke nakua his a dots under eight yards You could see it's this is not to say oh his targets don't matter He's getting so many targets correct that it's fine and his salary is low too at 70 but It's air yards basically help find value plays A lot easier than they do like they don't really matter like you said for the studs It's more about the value plays because if if you're sifting through and someone, you know four or five guys have Five to six targets a game You can look at air yards if you you know have a source for it look at downfield You know pff has I think there's a 20 plus. So it's a smaller sample It's harder to get those but um, you can look at those things and see You know, hey this these five targets are not the same as someone else's five targets And whenever you're scrounging for value, that's a big part of the process Like six targets for daniem and dola is very different than six targets in tank dal Yeah, bring back my old arch nemesis one more time Okay, my first thread is talking about the value of tight spreads because we talk a lot about game stacking and tight spreads And I figured it's probably good to put some data to behind why that's the case. Uh, if you look at last year 60 of all nfl games on main slates specifically main slates had a spread of four and a half or lower Those games produced 78 of quarterbacks and perfect lineups 59 of running backs 69 of wide receivers and 70 of tight ends So we saw a big boost for quarterbacks and pass catchers when they were in Games with projected tighter spreads. This is not how the game finished. This was the pregame bookmaker total So data you knew before kickoff. It was 61 of defense. So Less of an emphasis there for us For running back, it wasn't as important obviously But it was a major boost for quarterbacks and pass catchers to be in a projected tight spread We've seen a similar effect so far this year. Uh across the first three main slates 72 of games have had a spread of five points or less All three quarterbacks and all three tight ends in perfect lineups have come From those games 100 hit right there across 72 of games at wide receiver. It's 80 8 out of 10 at running back It's 62 5 out of 8 uh with two more coming in the five and a half to nine point spread range But uh, both those were the dolphin's running backs last week because most sturd and h h and were both in the perfect lineup so Running back. It's not as big of an emphasis to have a tight game I still care about it and I do still want a tight game because I want targets in the fourth quarter But not as important as it is for quarterback wide receiver and tight end Finally discussing stacks last year 79 of all single team stacks Came from games they spread of less than five points again the overall sample there with 60 percent It was just 63 for game stacks, which seems a bit counterintuitive But it is still above the full sample and zero game stacks last year came from games They spread of double digits This year game stacks and perfect lineups have come from games with spreads of two and a half three and five single team stacks have been Have all been between six point favorites and seven point underdogs. So again, no big spreads there This is probably confirmation bias. I hate games with with wide spreads, but It's confirmation bias because we back it up with data like, you know, we're there for a reason If we look forward to week four the large spreads on the board are the 49ers by 14 against the cardinals Eagles by eight and a half against the commanders Cowboys six and a half against the patriots and then chargers raiders is on the fringe. So in general How willing are you to stack? Or game stack a game with a larger spread and any red flags for you this week based on the spread double digit spreads for sure are ones that I don't necessarily like but when I talked about um The the cowboys last week and tony pollard I did make mention that just because there's a larger spread doesn't mean that that's how it plays out and one thing that's really hard to kind of grasp When you're talking about blowouts or like games that end a certain way That doesn't mean that they start off that way and then nobody plays if the blowout occurs Has a little bit more of a basketball sort of thought process, but the blowout occurs The guys you expect to produce probably did produce Again, that that does limit upside if they're not playing the whole game and it's not back and forth um, but you know double digit spreads for sure I get wary. I think eight is typically like my Point of okay this game probably is going to get a little bit Away from the one team But really what that kind of also means is that one team can't do a whole lot that does impact stacking I've done research on stacking and When one team does well the other team should do well And if you kind of can't consider that being the case then you want to get away from it It's kind of a little bit It's not ironic. It's just coincidental that i'm talking about the eagles here next but this is a part like Would it surprise anybody if the eagles really go out and have great games? No Do we want to stack that game over? You know bill stolphins these other games we've been talking about also. No, so It's always a bit subjective I mean it's easier for me to talk myself out of the cowboys With a decent spread over the patriots than it is just moving completely away from the eagles this week so They are red flags, but i'm also willing to ignore that for whenever I feel like I can kind of Outplay the data which is which is silly But I still think that some exposure to the eagles for example for this week Although it is one of the three teams you mentioned Where i'm kind of in so I guess i'm kind of on par with this Whole trend is a you know in general the part where i'm on par with it is that I like pollard quite a bit this week Pollard's salar. He's facing the patriots, which is a tough matchup But pollard salar this week 84 and if you're talking about guys Who are under salary like pollard with his role? Given the red zone role he has had the oaf like he is at in three games 20.7 carries and 4.7 targets per game 104 yards of scrimmage 44 red zone share. That's a $9,000 back if I've ever seen one um, and he's 84 so pollard i'm burying on not really him and the rest of the cowboys I'll let you talk to the eagles here in a second But uh, the 49ers also not the most appealing to me personally So we're talking game stacks mini stacks. Does it bother you at all?  You're okay with him as a one-off I'm okay with using one-offs against the patriots because I just don't want to consider that team It's not because that game is awful. It's not great Uh, but like it's because that team specifically sucks And are you most likely to use one-offs among this the flex positions? at running back Uh Yes tight end. I almost never want to use a one-off I want it tied to something. Yeah, I like just because It's like a jesus take the wheel kind of thing like I don't know how to do this You figure it out by stacking a game and put one of those guys in there Yeah, I was setting you up for success for the slam dunk. So you kind of got there, but yeah, good. I'll take it Okay, let's move to your second trend and you're gonna talk me into the eagles You're gonna try to talk me to the eagles. Uh, and what their offense has done so far Yeah, I don't even know if I'm gonna try to talk you into them necessarily is talk about them and see what sticks because at a certain point in the season we cover a lot of the trends that are you know Like game theory based or underlying data Uh, those types of trends we're talked about pace this kind of stuff at a certain point you just have like, okay Here's this one team Doesn't really fit exactly what we're looking for But they can put up a lot of points or have individuals who can put up a lot of points And it's really easy in a process of so you know stacking and talking about games That you look past a certain team, but we have the eagles here staring us in the face and You know One of the highest if not the highest upside quarterbacks in dfs to me Jalen Hertz He's had 12 and a half 26.2 and 21.88 fandal points the salary is 8800 Just below josh allen I don't know how many people are gonna prefer Jalen Hertz over josh allen based on these games therefore you have to kind of talk yourself into that But Hertz does have three rushing scores and I want to talk about regression For Hertz you can't really talk regression with jalen Hertz and how many touch counts He should have based on long-term trends because he just gets used in a very very specific way so his touchdowns are Very interesting, but he's thrown for 170 193 and 277 yards While rushing quarterbacks have upside because of the rushing Hertz kind of like Hertz allen You know those two in particular to me the way that I view them The rushing quarterbacks who also can throw for a lot of yardage and we just haven't seen that yet for Hertz and so it might feel like Jalen Hertz's best days They were last year or something like He can easily remind us that he can put up tons of yardage and score multiple times and have a great rushing game But according to passing yet expected points per drop backs a number fires epa model His three opponents so far have ranked 10th 19th and 30th in adjusted pass defense. So Maybe could have had a little bit of a better showing based on What he's actually given us washington's 14th They are 31st against the rush and then you talk about this this team and what they can do Um de undre swift has been pretty dominant. Uh, the past two games 72 of the snaps in week two Without Kenneth gain well 54 with gain well back last week with gain well playing 46 In week three probably the most relevant sample Because it was and you swift enough Game well was out and then they were both together. I think week three is going to be the most relevant one for us after swift's breakout He out carried Kenneth gain well 16 to 14 started 130 rushing yards H had two targets swift slightly with more routes 18 to 16 His efficiency makes him really dangerous But his salary is 7800 game wells is 6,000 and I think that's still appealing Especially if they might play from ahead against the team that's been beatable on the ground In the passing game asia brown 33.7 percent target share. It's 9.7 per game Hasn't scored yet. So we're going to talk about touchdown regression. That's appealing the bonte smith 23 target share for him great a dot just under 14 yards at 6.7 targets per game Spoiler alert. We both like dallas goddard this week because tight ends pretty bad His role hasn't been particularly great But it's been better the past two games than it was in the opener The salaries are up smith 7800 and and browns is 7700 goddard's 59 We like that but We're looking for shootouts. We're probably not going to get that We're looking for upside though Do you think philly has it this week and are you tempted by anyone in particular? So I think swift swift is at least worth discussing Because he's been getting a lot of work and he's been very efficient My concern is that he is James cook with a higher salary because Both these guys are going to lose some work. I don't know. I don't know about that one Why? Swift is phenomenal Do you know what james cooks the artist totals are the past two weeks? i'm just saying You give the ball to yondra swift and and james cook and i'll tell you which one James cook traded for a Day three pick this week this year If you're a we're gonna tell me that yondra says doesn't look very good then I'm not saying that i'm saying like i'm saying james cook also looks good But the problem is they both are the same issue where they lose work at the goal line Because swift loses work to the tush push or the brotherly shove whichever one you want to call it and cook loses work to Literally everybody on his team so like and switch could lose work there to gain well also so like My concern is that like if i'm going to use a guy with like some concerns around another back in that offense and potentially using work near the goal line i'm just going to use divan h. Ann or um james cook instead so It's probably dumb to not use swift, but i don't really foresee him being in my player pool this week Yeah, i don't think he'll be there either again just because i trying to team doesn't mean that i'm saying Here's why i'm playing them sometimes it's an exploration. It's a It's a question a thesis question. I think jaylon hurts though deserves A look as a differentiation play Yeah, because again, we haven't seen the passing yardage Just the one a single passing touchdown in each game which again, it's because he keeps running for all these but He has multiple paths. He's just like josh allen in that regard with you know better rushing higher scoring potential for sure You know It's a bet against the bills and dolphins if you want to play it that way And i think if you're doing that and you go jaylon hurts It's appealing Yeah, i'm not. I don't know. He just looked weird this year. It's it's odd. I don't know if it's still a shoulder or what but like It just looked off for some reason and I think that's why the passing has not been there so His floor is phenomenal. I just don't care about floor. I think that I don't know i'm I'm meh on this offense right now Which is really scary because like they're very good and like that jaylon hurts could very welcome out and be like Hey jim remember this um, that's what I what that's what I was like right We're not talking about this team enough for what they can do. That's different than saying what they will do this week But you got to discuss it. Yeah, I I don't know. I will probably just fade in clench is the approach for me this week just Pray it doesn't go wrong But it could because they're very good. So I know that risk going in for sure My second trend is talking about the two disgusting games to this week That is a pair of oh and three teams bears versus broncos vikings versus panthers and None of those four teams are good But all four defenses suck all four ranked 19th or lower in my projected defensive numbers this week Those account for injuries account for a prior as well And as a result we have high totals and tight spreads for both these games and that should be good for stacking We could have put both either of these games Third in the bookmaker section and nobody would have blinked. I don't think I'm just not entirely sold at least as it pertains to going crazy with stacking here both games have uh middling projected offensive efficiencies in my model That factors in the defense, but it puts more weight on offense because offense is stickier and easier to predict So it knows that the defense stink, but like Is that bankable? So I looked at games with similar offensive ratings in my model last year Then I narrowed things down a bit to games with the spread of less than five points And it gave me 32 total games where it had middling offenses and tight spreads The average bookmaker total for those games was 42.4 So three to four points lower than these two games So bookmakers are higher on this game. They were on those that's very noteworthy The bookmakers say this these games should be higher scoring The average total points scored in those games was 43.6 So about 1.2 points above the total that's also pretty good 16 of those games went over the total 16 went under As far as shootouts go two out of those 32 wound up having 70 total points four of them had 60 Eight of them had 50 So that's a 25 rate of games going over 50 total points Um and the overall sample of games went over 50 points last year was 32 So it was actually below that so these games were not bad by any means But they didn't go nuts as often as most other games did Again, the totals to these games are good relative to those and they they have the tight spread that we want Bookmakers are very good at what they do so them putting the total high should be noteworthy, but I at least want to proceed with caution When considering stacks in these games How are you viewing these two games? bears broncos and vikings panthers Uh Well, I love jesson jefferson. I'm not gonna let anything talk me out of that. Mm-hmm, but as I scroll here I got both games selected on fandall And I'm scrolling through each position I think Kirk cousins is like a half qb play I think russ is like a half and I think fields is like a 0.75 to a 1 Based on the salary And the matchup I mean, you're not wrong so Okay, so like I'm not sold on any any quarterback But I'd be open to them. I don't think this these games are good enough where I would literally stack them I have other ways to go um At running back it's myles sanders Maybe givante williams is like uh, okay. I want I want like you know Tyreek digs and justin jefferson some plan just like givante and You know whoever else and really just not going in on running back at receiver It's jefferson I think we're out on feeling I'd like to be out. I want to clarify that I'd like to write Courtland Sutton. We love him as a talent. Um, he scored twice already How many receivers in in these two games? Do you actively won in your line-ups? Just jefferson. Yeah. Yeah Addison souri did go down which helps. Yeah Like and and I love I love me some dj shark, but I like that I don't know. It's tough Again 11 targets last week, but a 19 target share Because they threw 58 times. Yeah And I will shout out dj hawkinson Because he is the one tight end on the slate who I think Could separate and that's relevant deserves attention So we're basically across these two games I'll say two total quarterback plays if I count some halves and You know just called fields at playable Uh, and then jefferson and presumably you're in okay with hawkinson Ah, he's salary is high. He doesn't get downfield work. He's fine like His salary is fine. He doesn't get downfield work He is the best tight end play on this slate if that doesn't tell you how tight end is I think that's that's all you need to hear. I think I want to go back to givante quick I think that like in a vacuum, he's fine because the bears are hideous against the rush And givante has been getting a decent amount of work. His salary is low My concern would be if he's popular he has to potentially be the shakiest shock of all time Because sumaji p ryan is still involved. The reason he's not getting more work is not due to talent. It's because of ramping back up from a torn a cl and that's something you do to like Dramatically change things. So that's my concern there I think there are a million running back plays which I hate But I don't think that's going to make givante popular Like he might be one of the more popular plays But I don't think he's going to stand alone as like Everybody's on givante The looking at projections. He might He might pull away He projects pretty well Then I'll then I'll call this out his first half snap rate fell from 71 of week two to 39 percent in week three Again, I like first half snap rates for especially for running backs, but Again, I think he's playable Because of the salary matchup Which is not to say that like if I'm building one lineup, he's not in it. Yeah, if I'm building 10 lineups He's probably not in those. Yeah if I'm building Probably 30 is where I'd like start to rotate Him in a bit more. I think that means we're gonna wind up lower on him the most Which I'm fine with personally I just wouldn't have expected him because there's a lot of Better, but still in perfect rolls. It's just the he's facing the bears. That's the I think that's the main logic. I got you that makes sense Do you prefer sanders mild sanders or givante williams miles by Miles couple meters. Oh, okay. Good. Um, I agree. I would agree at that as well. So We're okay with these games. Um I agree that ross is like somewhat interesting, but why is the salary 75? Like I'd rather use joe burrow at 72 than russa wilson at 75 personally Um, or richardson at 76 and i'm not gonna use that many quarterbacks. So Back to back 300 yard games Aided by a hail mary in one of them Sure Yeah, I think he's fine like again. I think he's fine. Yeah We like again, we have high upside qbs Some of them are in perfect matchups Some of them have, you know, offensive line issues or whatever So if you're betting against alan and tuha and maybe herbert then I think it's a pretty level playing field for someone like ross to be one of the better players. So yeah fair enough Okay, let's talk about uh weather for this week and let's talk briefly because there's nothing to know Looks pretty good so far, which I will happily take Uh, only wind game is potentially the london game. So we are good to go Let's dive in now to our positional plays for week number four starting off at quarterback brandon Who stands out to you there? josh alan Uh, we've got enough value at running back in a receiver to get there again. I've said this a few times, but Individual names on the slate have high upside Nobody really has the combination of like matchup rushing etc that alan has so I want to make sure I get there Dolphins pretty decent. Um, so far through three weeks in epa per drop back allowed, but 26 and completion rate over expectation allowed Haven't really faced any relevant rushing qbs yet. Um, they're having you know, there aren't that many to go around but alan for me is the best play Is passing efficiencies pretty up there? Um I think if i'm building one lineup I want to get to alan if not My second option is toa That's out of 8 000 again doesn't run a whole lot. So he needs the the passing but He's got 4 66 249 and 309 with 3 1 and 4 touchdowns. He can get you 350 and 4 especially in this matchup Um, not the best overall matchup but another team that's allowing a completion rate over expectation That's pretty high. They're they're 26 in that metric. So That's something that you know, this team can take advantage of and I don't think you need to overthink it After this team scores 70 points. Nope. No need to I also josh alan is my top guy If you are a regular listener, you know, I don't typically get to alan But usually that's because the bills are too heavily favored and they're not here. Um, Spread is tight. Uh, so sign me up It's a lofty salary, but I can use the mid-range running backs to get there Some of whom are in this game with james cook. Well, I would not pair cook with alan But like I would pair han with him. I think that's totally fine. I can pair jail and water with him. So This bill's defense is pretty beat up Which should increase the shootout odds the odds that alan is in bizarro mode Which is his typical his baseline, but like, you know, maybe he's in it longer this week usual. So josh alan I have an excuse to use him and I'd like to do so because I don't often get to go there My second love is anthony richardson I could have put two way here because I like I like him too. So I like that you talked about him Richardson is awesome. He's at home. It's a decent total tight spread They might scale back on the running because of the concussion, but Great matchup for passing against the rams. This game is indoors his salary is 76 I think jesson herbert is the one guy I did not talk about here who I would want to shout out as well Um, but to me I would love to stick to the four quarterbacks alan tunga by loa herbert and richardson and then Cut it off from there and I feel pretty good about things Let's go to running back who stands out to you there I like josh jacob's a lot. Um, it's a little bit contingent on garoppolo, but His role is really really good hasn't scored yet, but 2.3 red zone carries per game. So 64 of the teams Red zone carries 4.7 targets per game. It's got an 80 snap rate and a 60 route rate No running back has had at least those cutoffs over all three games His role is I think a little bit Understated just because he hasn't had you know the touchdowns. I think he gets some this week. Um Could be too honestly, especially if uh, they're a little bit more conservative with garoppolo, but A good match up on the ground as well with the chargers bottom five and rushing success rate allowed Two opposing running backs second love. Um, Could go with kairan williams here, but i'm going zack moss Uh, don't have a strong preference, but moss I think deserves a lot of attention Just talked about like the the 80 snap rate the 60 route rate Across all three games applying only to josh jacob's If it was just you know two games zack moss would be in that club, which is kind of wild Um 63 route rate 85 snap rate Really good red zone share Putting up yardage Not going to overthink this one And then my third love Someone I didn't really expect to play all season. Frankly don't love the offense don't love Targeting running backs with Six offenses that I don't fully believe in but myles sanders 6600 Results haven't been there yet 98 47 62 yards from scrimmage, but a lot of targets six five and nine Targets are really valuable for running backs even on a half ppr site Catch rate of expectation is minus 15.6 percent. So That's got to improve the rushing success rate. It's also bad again. I don't love Targeting someone like myles sanders week after week, but in this game I like it more and he's a way to bring back justin jefferson stacks So I can take advantage of this game being a little bit close or if the vikings play out ahead Sanders should get some targets. So I think there's some correlation there for for me Yeah, sanders so far 27 adjust opportunities per game, which is a very very good number 39 red zone share You'll take that too. So I'm okay with him as well My first love is kairan williams the yardage total so so far. I've just been okay But part of that is based on matchups. He's faced the 49ers and bangles They're both really good. Seattle better this year than they were previously He's at 13 carries and 6.3 targets per game with a 69 red zone share It is very hard to turn that down at 76 in a better matchup for this week I also have zack moss on my list as you mentioned him other side of that game I just played so many snaps the past two weeks and now He should play alongside a mobile quarterback against a young defense Got 24 carries and 3.5 targets across the past two weeks 126 yards per game 53 red zone share a zack moss checks every single box and I definitely want to be there for this week My third leather running back is going to be alvin chimera now part of this is Scary because it is the buck's defense and the buck's defense is very good But the running back depth in new orleans is awful. We're getting chimera back off suspension at a reduced salary $6,500 It is james winston and winston at tons can be pretty downfield heavy Which could be a downgrade for chimera, but also it means they may be more run heavy in order to Safeguard themselves. They back a quarterback in there and chimera should get good passing game work Despite the fact they've got a lot of good past catchers now in this offense It is a pivot off of divan a chan if a chan tracks be popular same thing for other mid-range running backs I don't think chimera is going to catch a lot of attention for this week and to me We get a talent like this for $6,500. That's pretty hard to turn down So even though it's not the best game on this slate I do want to make sure I get to alvin chimera in his return because the sains backfield depth is so bad Let's move now to wide receiver brandon. Uh, where are you starting things off there? I'm starting with jesson jefferson I probably should have started with tyrie kill, but the reason that I like jefferson Is I have other ways to get exposure to The miami offense hill has been scoring at a crazy rate. So as you know, his salary is Pretty maxed out jefferson has not been scoring at a wild rate and his salary is Fair I'll say, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if it were even higher, but without a lot of uh, Great running back plays too We need exposure to high ceiling receivers Jefferson obviously has that 99 route rate Nine catches over 12 targets over 150 yards per game finally scored Again I don't need to say a lot more. Uh, jefferson is he has it And i'm gonna go there uh in my main lineup this week So i'll jump the whole way down. Um, I could make a case for a very easy case for pukinakua But i'm gonna go is with his teammate, uh, 22 out well 6300 save a lot of salary nine targets on monday night 50 yards in a score But uh, two of his targets were red zone targets and five of the nine went at least 10 yards downfield So if you give extra weight to those that's basically worth 13.7 targets uh, he's got a high adod of 13 yards and He's at like five targets fewer per game than nikua, but has more air yards per game. We just talked about On the value of air yards. That's not a negative on nikua It's that they're both in play and that just because nikua is very reasonable to get to in terms of salary So is that well, um, then my third love is going to be josh palmer We're always, you know, I like the caution against projecting Workload increases, but this is a case that we've actually seen it in the past where palmer gets more work There were a lot of games 12 last year where either mike williams or keenan allen were limited palmer 19 target share in those games um Not a lot of The 54 yards per game could have been better, but three three games with at least 99 yards been running ahead of uh, quentin johnston, so I'm good with palmer. You mentioned there's not a whole lot of room for his Roll to grow like his snap rate to grow But there's a lot of room for his target share to grow In a good game palmer at 61 makes a lot of sense. Yeah, I'm talking myself more into him again I've had a weird flow with him like oh monday super into him A little bit worried going forward and then today. I think i'm back on and being okay With josh palmer. I just I think the downfield targets will be pretty valuable coming from her word against his defense My first love is also in that game assuming that jimmy garoppolo plays. I adore davante adams He has a 41 target share if you look at just the two games playing alongside jacoby meyers So he's had a great Option in that offense and he's still got a ton of work 13 deep targets already for davante Eight of those came in week number three. He has five targets inside the red zone I also like mires a lot at 69 so jimmy g be healthy my god because we need you For this game. My second love is jalen waddle coming off a concussion But uh, I didn't also didn't have a ton of production the first two games But we know that waddle has blow the slate up kind of upside He's a guy who could go for 150 and two and we wouldn't blink an eye at that sour is not bad at 74 He shouldn't catch a lot of popularity due to a slow start. So I think that waddle is very very fun My third love is going to be tank del. I think you could talk about michael thomas here if you wanted to I don't actually hate him With a mid-range salary. I don't mind zay flowers. There are a lot of guys we could have discussed here But tank del isn't a tough matchup, uh, but two games to the starter del has a 24 percent overall target share two deep targets per game Production has been there. He is indoors at home as a slight underdog and we talked about the flowchart for wide receivers who are going to blow up the total is not there very much so not there but tight game Slide underdogs at home indoors. That's a lot to like So I like houston's offense It's going to be tough with their offensive line banged up But cj strad has been efficient without larry tonsil for two games already and I think he can be efficient once again They're also missing their back a lot tackle. Which is not great, but um, I still am okay with tank del Uh in the low 6000 range Yeah, scary, but anyway, let's go to tight end. What you got there? I'm gonna say tj hawkinson I'm not saying that i'm gonna go out of my way to play him in my main lineup But he is the one name with pretty substantial appeal in terms of ceiling 21 target share that's fourth best in football Which is kind of sad, um But second best on the main slate behind just zacher to gets the 49ers. So i'm not interested in that unless i'm really just kind of looking for a punt play But up against the panthers 20 second and adjusted fantasy points per target a lot of tight ends catch rate over expectation of 5.0 percent again He's got some semblance of a ceiling with multi touchdown upside. I know you don't love the downhill work. I don't either but The target volume could be there, especially if that game is a little bit back and forth But I think the main play for me this week is dallas goddard at 5900 really good salary Washington's been really good against tight ends, but it's early in the season Sample sizes for especially for tight end targets are pretty pretty limited, but goddard You know really really slow start week one So his overall season target share is 17 percent, but over the past two games. It's up to 25 percent Volume itself on those not great, but uh, he can score. He's got some juice So goddard at 5900 probably the best compromise between just completely giving up on tight end and having someone who can Score and get you 70 yards wouldn't surprise you I couldn't agree more which is why goddard is my top play a tight end too I'm not looking to sack this game, but I don't mind goddard as a one-off Salaries 59 he has a 17 target share even when you include a one target game week one Which you should because that game matters. Don't cherry pick that game matters But still a 17 target share Washington's defense has underwhelmed thus far. So goddard I would expect to get back on track soon This is kind of my hedge of like, okay Been underwhelmed by hurts so far, but maybe I can still get exposure via goddard at 59 my second love I don't know if I should do this, but like I'm gonna go to Gerald Everett You know, I do not like Gerald Everett, but His salary is 5,000 he could benefit with Mike Williams out because I mentioned before that josh palmers at 0.9 yards per out run Quinton, Quinton Johnston is at 0.7 Everett's at 1.7 so far this year. He has a target on 21 percent of his routes run If the routes increase this week, he could be able to take advantage So I'm okay with it I would also say I consider Taysom hill here just because tight end is so bad that like a rushing touchdown might be enough So hill at 55 is in play Everett's in play don't mind knocks don't mind concaid But like I should probably have gone Goddard and mark Andrews because Andrew's salary at 67 is a bit too low I think for his role. So tight end stinks Defense is better than tight end somehow. What do you got there? Go with the Broncos. I'm just going to keep going against the bears as much as I can That's been good to me so far They're doing The way that I wrote it in my my write up on fandal research was whatever the opposite of clicking is That's what the bears got going on um You know this defense isn't good necessarily at least so far But there's a lot of potential for sacks fields at a 12.9 percent sack rate, which is third highest in the nfl horrible EPA metrics 3,900 I'll take it Uh, I think that they're pretty fun too if I need to spend down a little bit more But I like the Bengals quite a bit at 41 the offense is struggled with the defense to look really good as always They're facing the Titans with no Peter Skaronski likely once again due to his appendectomy I don't think the Texans are bad at times if you really want to save salary jam and peachy might be back This week, which would help the rams are okay if you want to save some salary too But I think the Bengals of 41 are are totally fine for defense for this week Rosa is not into the Bengals apparently, uh Any final words of wisdom for you brandon before we close up shop for today Uh, I think we covered it a lot a lot of good or there's a few good games couple games that are somewhat appealing And it's a really really easy week for me to build Stacks around my favorite game and then just many stack other games got some rb value. So It's an easy one hardest part is going to be willing down the player pool Yep, especially a running back, um, but I think that's a good thing I'd rather have too many options than not enough. Um, so I think that's helpful for sure Okay, that is all that we have here for today as a reminder Make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast be wherever you get your podcast You can also find the nfl podcast on The fandal youtube page and over on fandal tv plus brandon if people have questions for you On twitter, where can they find you there? Good all 13 gdu la One three and I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fandal podcast network At fan dual podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today.  This has done the heat check fantasy podcast right here on the fan dual podcast network