In this module we'll be continuing our discussion around self-organization and non-linearity within complex engineered systems. As we talk about path dependency and attractors, we'll look at how the process of self-organization and evolution results in systems that are sub-optimal and contingent on historical events. We'll talk about the network effect and negative externalities and how they lead to lock-in. The key takeaway from this module will be in understanding the process through which attractors are created and work as defining factors in the evolution of technology. Because we can fully control and design simple linear technologies like a refrigerator, we can take our design and by simply inputting enough resources, we can just produce the technology all in one go, rolling them off the production line. But complex engineered systems like cities and the internet don't just pop into existence like this. Instead, they start out simple and they go through a process of evolution to become complex. The important thing for us to note here is that they are the product of their evolutionary history and they carry this history with them in their DNA and overall makeup. In the same way that the fridge is the expression of the design that created it, these complex engineered systems are the expression of the evolutionary process that created them. We often think of engineering and technology as driven by efficiency and this may be the case on the micro level where we can fully control the design and production process for our refrigerator. But on the macro scale with self-organization, we often come to suboptimal solutions due to inertia, economic and socio-political dynamics. To illustrate this, we might think about the fact that these complex engineered systems typically involve large amounts of fixed capital and sunk costs. A city gets one chance to build its expressway out to the airport and that's it. It will be there for the next 50 years or more. The same with the internet. Now that we've built it, there is no option to build another one just because it is in some way suboptimal. History has played out to create these things and there is no going back. We have to live within and work within that context that it created and this is what we call path dependency. Path dependency describes how the set of decisions one faces currently are limited by the decisions one made in the past, even though these circumstances may no longer be relevant. Even though previous choices were made on chance or limited information with better options now being available, it is still easier to simply continue upon a pre-existing suboptimal path than to create an entirely new one. In other words, the present is never a clean slate where we are free to make any decision. It is in fact contingent on how we got to this point. In a very broad sense, it means that history matters. When we look around us, we can see that our systems of technology are very much a product of a path dependent process. Why do we still use the QWERTY keyboard that was designed for typewriters when it is not the most efficient for today's keyboards? Why do we still use the standard gauge train track designed two centuries ago for horse drawn coal carts to run today's powerful trains when it is far from optimal? Why is it so difficult for us to switch to renewable energy sources? Why do businesses all cluster in a particular area like Silicon Valley when there is nothing special about that particular location? All of these examples are because the choices we made in the past as to what technology we adopted influence the choices we make today. Path dependency is particularly acute in complex systems because of their high degree of connectivity and more importantly interdependency. Things don't happen in isolation. During the systems development, paths to the system interact with others and they co-evolve to become interdependent. Path dependency is particularly acute in these complex engineered systems because of their hierarchical structure. They are multi-tiered with end user technologies depending upon infrastructure technologies lower down the solution stack. They are what is called platform technologies. When a new technology platform is adopted like Microsoft's Windows operating system in the 90s, over time many new technologies are built on top of this and become dependent upon it. A whole ecosystem of new applications, new programming languages, new firmware, hardware, fenders, instructors, technicians and so on, meaning that small changes in the platform technology may result in a large effect across the ecosystem that has been specifically designed for it. And this is often the case for infrastructure systems like transportation networks and electrical power grids. They are deeply embedded within the socio-economic and technological fabric of the society with many deep interdependencies. The basic theory to path dependency is that it is a product of a self-organizing process where some small initial event that is often somewhat arbitrary in nature comes through positive feedback to create a lock-in effect. This lock-in effect leads to negative externalities, inertia and drives a particular course of events that are difficult to change in the future. So let's analyze this process a bit further to try and understand it better. Path dependency maintains that the starting point as well as feedback loops along the way affect and shape the end outcome to the technologies of today. In the language of chaos theory this is called sensitivity to initial conditions. More popularly it is known as the butterfly effect. Because of feedback loops some small possibly random event in the past can in fact turn out to have very significant consequences in the present or future and that we cannot predict this process a priori. We have to run or simulate the running of the system in order to understand its future state. An example of this might be the initiation of the First World War through a relatively small event in Bosnia. There was no way of knowing that this small event would lead to a world war and the reshaping of Europe's borders because this phenomena really emerged out of the nonlinear interactions during the system's development. Next positive feedback and negative externalities take hold to drive the system's development. Economics of scale is a good illustration of this. The more users there are of a particular technology the more we can leverage economics of scale to reduce its price which will in turn feedback to attract more users. This is a positive feedback and this is how some companies can get exponential growth as they ride this wave of positive feedback during the early stages of a new technologies life cycle. Added to this we have the network effect. The network effect is really due to the fact that the value of many technologies is in the capacity to interoperate with other users. Urban mass transit systems have the network effect. Every time we build a new station it adds value not just to the users of that particular station but to the entire network as everyone now has more possibilities in their destination. Both positive feedback and the network effect are powerful forces that once they take hold of a particular technology will amplify it but we can also add to this negative externalities meaning that when someone chooses to use a particular technology that choice decreases the value of another competing technology for all of its users. Once a particular industry or company adopts a particular standard this will crowd out others because the more a particular technology or standard grows the greater the cost to other people if they choose not to use it. This makes it very difficult to change some technology or standard once it's taken hold even if alternatives may be more efficient. And thus this particular pre-existing technology is essentially being subsidized by the network effect and the negative externality of not being able to interoperate with others if you change. This positive feedback and negative externality combine to create an attractor meaning once they have taken hold around a technology they work to subsidize that technology and make it an easier solution to any other of a number of different possible solutions as it becomes the default. Because the other options are now more costly or difficult this technology now has an attractor built around it. In non-mathematical terms an attractor is a set of states towards which a system will naturally gravitate from any given initial state and will remain within these set of states unless significantly perturbed. This is essentially the same thing as a default where default means a value or state to a system that is automatically selected if no other option is specified. New entrants to the industry or new adopters of the technology without specific reason to do otherwise will adopt this default technology because of the attractor around it. This subsidizing of a technology solution that comes with the network effect and negative externalities and the attractor space that it creates results in inertia the resistance to change. An example of this might be what is called carbon lock-in referring to the self-perpetuating inertia created by large fossil fuel based energy systems that inhibit the adoption of alternative energy technologies. Now that we've built up sophisticated machinery for extracting and processing petroleum and the combustion engine that has become a default technology the industry is being subsidized by economics of scale and the network effect meaning because of historical events we can produce a barrel of oil very cheaply and if you have a barrel of oil you can do almost anything with it from making raincoats to greasing your car's wheels to trading it on the futures market. It is interoperable across a wide set of technologies giving it the network effect and attractor and creating inertia. All of these positive feedback the network effect and negative externalities mean that once we decide to go down a particular path it is self-reinforcing and excludes other possibilities in the future creating the inertia of the lock-in effect. Breaking out of this will require either greatly more efficient technology coming along or very efficient organization for people to cooperate on changing to a better available solution. And cooperation is a very important aspect to this. It would take widespread cooperation for us to globally standardize the electrical plug or train track gauges and this is an example of how the sociopolitical domain influences the development of the technical domain. This inertia of the lock-in effect is not just a technical phenomena but also a sociocultural phenomena. Ways of doing things become embedded within a culture and there will be resistance to change. In the 19th century horses mattered. Today no one really cares about horses but instead cars matter and have significance to people today. Advertising companies create stories about them and they become part of our culture and way of doing life. People like to think that their lives have meaning and that things are the way they are for some reason. Most people don't like the idea that their lives and the world around them are in some way arbitrary. No matter how impersonal these technologies might seem they are part of our lives and we create stories around these things to give them meaning. Added to this is the uncertainty of change. Most people don't like uncertainty and they will remain with a particular pattern of organization, technology or solution because it is known and predictable. Again creating inertia due to sociocultural factors. In this module we've been talking about path dependency as we looked at how complex engineered systems are the product of a self-organizing evolutionary process. That this process may involve sensitivity to some relatively arbitrary initial condition but due to their highly interconnected and interdependent nature this initial event can become amplified as the network effect and negative externalities kick in to create an attractor with the technology becoming a default standard and the emergence of inertia. The net result of all of this being an outcome that is far from an equilibrium optimal solution but instead contingent on the system's history what we call path dependency.


The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning markets kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN Thursday morning just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. We got about 30 minutes to go until the start of trading and we got markets in positive territory to kick things off. You're looking at an S&P, positive by 16 points. But boy, we were higher last night. You were approaching 4,200 in the S&P. You make a high at about 3 in the morning Eastern time, about 30 points above right now. You had the S&Ps up a full percentage point overnight. Right now you're positive by 4, 10th percent. We got a lot of earnings to go through along with some economic numbers this morning. You got the Nasdaq 100, you're up 74 points, but you were as high as 13,080. You give back about half of the gains overnight. Nasdaq 100 was up more than 1 percent as well. We're sitting right now up 6, 10th percent. The Dow, a little bit of a laggard. Dow right now just under 33,000, barely in the positive. The Russell, positive by 9 points. How about crude? $95 and 14 pennies, man, crude. Chopping around that $95 price point since the close of action on yesterday. Gold catching a little bit of a bid this week. We make a low Monday of 1740. It's been higher prices since then. You get the gold contract trading at 1773 and we jump to the all-important notes and bonds, flat action so far in the note and bond market. We get the 10-year right now, flat to the tick at 1708. That's going to correlate to a yield, though, of 3.11 percent. You talk about a run, man, into some Fed speak tomorrow. Chairman Powell, we start to get some headlines today out of Jackson Hole, though. We'll see how the markets move on that. The Fed chairman himself speaking tomorrow, 10 a.m. Eastern time, I believe, is the time he'll be speaking tomorrow morning in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. All right, let's jump around to some of the news we got this morning. We'll kick it off with some fundamental news. It's almost like there's news for either side of the opinion on this one, folks, and every day we get it. The headline out there this morning, Key U.S. Growth Measures Diverge Complicating Recession Debate. I would say so. So you look at it. GDP contracting, 0.6 percent better than the prior estimate. Gross domestic income rising at 1.4 percent pace. Spending revised up. So you look at these two numbers, okay? Gross domestic product is the total value of all goods and services produced in the economy. That's a big one. That's about all that matters, folks, your GDP over your economy, right? Decreased at 0.6 percent, okay? Annualized rating in April to June period. That reflects an upward revision to the consumer spending and compares to the previous reported 0.9 percent, okay? So you get the previous reporting. You get a restatement of that. We're now at a decrease of 0.6 percent versus a previously reported 0.9 percent contraction, okay? And then you have, as Bloomberg puts it, I'd say rightfully so, the lesser known official measure of economic growth known as gross domestic income. That climbed at 1.4 percent after increasing 1.8 percent in the first three months of the year, okay? So gross domestic income up 1.8 percent in the first quarter, up 1.4 percent in the second quarter. That measures activity by calculating all income generated from producing those goods and services like compensation and company profits. And you say, hold on a second, if we're making more goods, shouldn't what people be making income-wise from those goods be somewhat tied to that? Yes, you're correct, it should. Theoretically, GDP and GDI should be roughly equal, but in reality, they tend to differ, especially in early estimates, but the current gap, particularly large. Guess what that does? That means you got something for everybody, man. They suggest there's an abrupt slowdown in the economic momentum in the first half of the year. Under the surface, there's more play, though, including volatile categories, right? Imports, inventories, consumer spending has decelerated back-to-back negative quarters. That's the common rule for a recession. We've heard that one before. GDI, however, gross domestic income points to more gradual cooling. It paints a picture of an economy supported by a robust labor market and resilient consumer spending, though one that's starting to feel a pinch of the worst inflation in a generation. So interesting, you get both of those numbers out. Choose your data to choose your opinion, folks, on how that goes. Now, we got unemployment benefits out this morning as well, decreasing by 2,000 to 243,000. In my opinion, if this thing chops around between 225 and 250,000, it's almost a non-news event. Median estimate was looking for 252, so stronger numbers than what the market was looking for, continuing claims, which were our one week delayed versus when you look at jobless claims, okay? So continuing claims is for the weekend at August 13th, falling to 1.42 million. The decline in jobless claims points to a still robust labor demand as companies trying to attract and retain employees amid lingering worker shortages. Not usually the sentiments that you read during a recession, right? Companies trying to attract and retain employees amid lingering worker shortages, not even close to what you hear. Even so, some employers in the tech sector have been laying off staff for freezing hiring. That's gonna continue to climb in the coming months as the Fed potentially raises interest rates to curb demand and tame inflation on an adjusted basis. Initial claims declined to about 184,000 last week. You got New Jersey, Indiana and California having the largest declines. And what about Massachusetts? What's going on in good old hometown, home state, Massachusetts, posting an outsized increase for jobless claims? So we get those numbers this morning and the market takes in stride, but we got a lot of earnings to go over and some tough numbers to say the least. Why not we'll kick it off with Peloton, man, Peloton. They are losing Boku bucks to put it lightly, folks. They got all the acceleration yesterday that they're gonna be selling their products on Amazon and what happens? They give it all back on their numbers this morning. Now let me cherry pick some of the numbers here and you don't have to cherry pick hard, man, to find some harsh numbers for Amazon in terms of what they were putting out here. Yeah, so Peloton has an average hardware cost, okay? I'm gonna try and find this tweet. Let me see if I can pull it up so you guys can see it. Of $1,436 and actually loses $163 on each new subscriber added, all right? Now, this is just some of the breakdown. They're everywhere on Twitter. This one did catch my eye though, folks, okay? These bikes are shipping from 130 bucks on Amazon and it cost in them $1,436. Brutal quarter, get that outsourcing going ASAP. Random quote, tweet from somebody that I'm not familiar with, okay? Obviously, maybe title, tide, fall, capital, not so familiar with Trevor Scott. I don't think he's anybody in particular. But nonetheless, I believe this is true, okay? They are spending so much money, folks, on every single bike they're making, okay? Now their business plan is to stop doing that.  They're probably gonna get the margins back into a reasonable level to where they're probably gonna be able to actually even be able to afford to cut Amazon in on some of those profits is what you're seeing. But nonetheless, some tough numbers this morning and I thought I had it pulled up, but maybe not, let's just jump into it. Big loss and a decline on revenue and the number is pretty startling, folks, okay? Peloton's net loss, 1.24 billion or $3.68 per share. Folks, the stock's only trading at 11 or 12 bucks, okay? 1.24 billion in three months they just lost. That was 313 million they lost a year earlier. They, I think it was a 400 million restructuring charge they're dealing with. Some of the losses stem from Peloton's effort to avoid an inventory glut, cut fix costs and addressed other supply chain issues. They embarked on 800 million restructuring plan. The end of the fourth quarter with inventory of 1.1 billion compared to 937 million a year earlier, revenue falling 28% to 678 from 936. That came in short of even what the market was looking for, 718. Yeah, tough numbers all around, man. For Peloton, we could spend a whole show just talking about it. 338 million in subscription revenue, up 36%, okay? That's 56.4% of the total company sales. So that's gonna be a big path for them going forward. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be coming right back to talk to our man, Kevin Hanks from TD Ameritrade, right back in three minutes. 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Folks, we've got S&P Futures right now on the positive by 18 points, trading at 41.60. You got NASDAQ 100, just above 13,000 at 13,014. Let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hanks. Every trading day, folks. 12 noon Eastern time right here on Tiger TV. Fast Market with your host, Kevin Hanks. Tom White, the team at TD Ameritrade Network. They do an outstanding program, folks. Walk you through the day's market action. They walk you through three trades, three hypothetical trade setups, all of them using options on the Thinkorswim platform and all of them in defined risk. As we come into potentially a very volatile end of the week right now. Kevin Hanks, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. The Jackson Hole Symposium starting out today, we should get a steady flow of headlines and comments coming from policymakers, economists, financial market participants, academics, all those, they'll all be commenting on the current state of the economy. And then it leads to Jerome Powell speaking Friday morning from there. That with the PCE data that we're gonna get from personal income and outlays on Friday should make for a pretty big end of the week, Tommy. It's pretty cool, we drift upwards, Kevin. I thought we might get a little bit of risk into this market in terms of sitting at a pretty lofty level of 4160 right now in the S&Ps considering where that recent run hire started of 3600 and change. We come into potentially some volatility, man, at the market holding up pretty well.  Want to get your quick take on Peloton? It's a fan favorite as in volatility everywhere on that stock, man. Losing more than a billion dollars and a quarter. What was your take on the Peloton numbers as they kind of give back all that exuberance yesterday on the Amazon deal that they put together? I think if you're looking at a stock like Peloton, you're really gonna look to the future, not the present. They're going through some pretty rough times, but this new CEO is really making changes to the company. Closing the boutique stores, moving over to Amazon, getting more with e-commerce in terms of this company. I think long-term, the real question is what kind of a, how big will Peloton get? Is it just gonna be a boutique company like GoPro and things like that that go crazy when they come out and then settle into a nice level? It'll be interesting. This relationship with Amazon is an interesting one member, Amazon, 163 million people view Amazon. So they've lowered the prices of some of the bikes down to reasonable levels. So for Peloton, it's all about the subscription services that they can get people to apply for. So yeah, it's gonna be interesting, but Peloton's a longer story, Tommy. I think you ended it with a great point. As in we all know the health industry of items, whether it's, I was joking with friends, Kevin yesterday, talking about all they gotta do now is get Chuck Norris on the commercials, man, and they'll have the business plan fully intact. Maybe Christine Brinkley or whatever, you know, as in they've run forever, but what they have, which none of those companies had, are the recurring revenue subscriptions, man. And they get some big numbers there and we all know it's a turnaround story. And thankfully, if you are an investor in Peloton, that story has already begun with them trying to sub out the production of their bikes, not doing it themselves, because boy, those numbers this quarter, man, when they're producing bikes themselves, way too expensive at what they're doing right now. We move from there, Kevin. We have a NVIDIA moving today, Snowflake with some bang out numbers, man. They're gonna open almost 20% to the upside. What are you guys talking about on Fast Market at 12 today? Three good names that we'll be looking at today. Workday, the HR company, the online HR company, then Ulta Beauty, like fully old do presentation on Ulta. And then we'll look at a firm, the Buy Now, Pay Later company made popular because of Peloton, Tommy. So we'll look at three really good names all with earnings out today. Man, that a firm chart, right? You talk about some volatility from 176 when Buy Now, Pay Later looked like was gonna take over the globe less than a year ago, down to $13 early this year, trading at 30 bucks right now. And Ulta, holding up pretty well this year, one of the better stocks almost right where you kicked off the year at 412 right now. Bottom of COVID folks, 124, you came into 2020 at a price level of about 267, so strong performance in Ulta. So as we approach, Kevin, as you mentioned, we're gonna get plenty of headlines today. What's your basic expectation as we sit, you know, coming into the opening bell, we're up a bit, you're up a little bit more? Do you think we could see volatility today in general? And this is a big opinion, nobody really knows, or is it kinda just gonna be we're wading through the analysis we do get for the chairman himself? Or is today something that we might actually see some volatility? I think the anticipation up to Jerome Powell's comments tomorrow are pretty clear, right? I think the message from the Fed so far has been pretty hawkish about fighting inflation, but, Tommy, remember the anticipation going into the Fed minutes about the hawkish tone that they expected and it didn't show up. It was more balanced and more middle of the road, a more two-way discussion about inflation than just pure hawkish. So, you know, the best scenario for the market, I think if Jerome Powell puts away the hammer and takes out the feather and massages this market back to where it was. So it'll be interesting to see his comments. I'm sure he'll talk tough on inflation, but how does he feel about interest rate changes going forward, Tommy? And then some, you know, I don't have the exact verbiage in my head, but some of what he did talk about there or they talked about in the Fed minutes was saying that the effects and the impacts of some of those hikes that they've already given maybe not felt yet. Maybe the market's somewhat receptive to that, that the Fed governors kind of receptive to the idea that, you know, it takes time, folks, for these hikes to have an impact and maybe they're going to allow that impact to play out before they keep hiking every single meeting. But guess what? We're gonna find out a little bit more within about 24 hours from right now tomorrow morning and we'll get some headlines today. Well, Kevin, we appreciate the time you take with us every morning, as always, man. Today should be an interesting one and we'll be watching at 12 o'clock today, man. Have a great day and have a great weekend, Tommy. You have a great weekend too. I always say to you on Thursday, Kevin, folks, we talk to Kevin every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, right at 9.15 in the morning. Put it on your calendar. So when I say Thursday, it seems, Kevin, there's so much news. I'm gonna talk to you on Tuesday. We're gonna know a lot more about this market. When I speak to you on Tuesday, man, I can't wait. Have a great day, Tommy. Thanks. You too, folks, tune in every day. It should be a good one, I'm sure. It's Fed Day, it's Fed Speak, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, along with some great companies they'll be talking about with earnings as well. And yeah, Alta, man, look at Alta holding up pretty well. You wanna be in a strong stock during a recession? I guess you wanna be selling makeup to say the least. Workday, not so much the case though. Look at that pullback, man. Almost back to the COVID, those for workday from 307 down to about 140. You've bounced a bit with the market up to 160. That's a big one. And a firm, yeah, AFRM. Yeah, that's a tough one, man. Up to 176. Now, I think part of the acceleration this company had, right, was doing deals with Amazon even. I mean, maybe it was the deal that they did in September they were doing that. Not so much the case, folks. Down to 30 bucks. Even this company right now, you jump over to the Analyze tab. You're talking about a $9 billion company at $30. What does that mean? And what, five, six times that? So we're talking about $45, $50 billion company when you were running up to $160.  Because by now, pay later, for many of the items that they're talking about, yes, they're allowing you to do that and they're telling you they're not gonna charge you fees. But folks, if you have to, you know, I mean, when this thing was rising to the depths, there were images being posted on Twitter about you could order Domino's with a firm. Are you telling me we're gonna start getting to where we're doing buy now, pay later for pizza? But that was literally what they were talking about because they'll service anything, man, as small a price item as you want. Not sure that is good for society as that stock takes off. But right now it's sitting at about 30 bucks. That'll be an interesting conversation on Fast Market at 12. Check it out, folks. We'll be right back for the... Time of glooming inflation. We are purchasing powers eroded. There's no better place to protect your harder and money-thinning gold. Vista Gold's flagship asset is the Monk Todd Gold Project in the Northern Territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. We are talking a world-class gold project in a tier one mining district. This is a large-scale, low-cost project with significant existing infrastructure in a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction. 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TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back folks, we've got markets open, you got an S&P positive, but a little bit of a drop on the open there as we reach levels, basically session lows right now, S&P up 12 points. You see the acceleration we had at about two in the morning, you accelerate higher, we give it all back then plus some, we're just positive by 13 points right now on the S&Ps. You get the NASDAQ 100, positive by 73, Dow actually goes red on the open right now. You jump over to Europe, we get the DAX basically flat, the FTSE up about one-tenth percent, you get the KAKAROL basically down two-tenths percent over in Asia, positive prices in a big way. The Nikkei up about six-tenths Shanghai up a full percent. How about the Hang Seng up 3.6%? Hong Kong's Hang Seng rises after resuming trading, Asia markets rise ahead of Jackson Hole, but we'll see if they hold as this market gives back some of those gains. I mean, you take a look at the S&P folks, we're about 40 points off of the highs we had last night. Let's see what that high was. Well, we'll call it 30 points. 30, 35 points off of the highs we got on that acceleration higher at about 2 a.m. Eastern time. We jumped to commodities, crude, sitting pretty comfortably above $95 this morning and we had the gold contract up about 10 bucks as well. Jumping back to Peloton, see how they opened this morning. Kevin made some great points, man, talking about, you know, they got some work to do. The story for them might be they're recurring revenue and subscriptions going forward. So we'll talk a little bit about that. They're down 14.5%, man. You're losing over a billion dollars in a 90-day period. You better watch out. They can't take forever to get this turnaround going. That's to say the least, but let's get into some of the numbers they talk about when you talk about subscription revenue, okay? Losses, they're definitely mounting, man. As I said, 1.24 billion in 90 days. Talk about mismanagement, man. But this new CEO, he's been in there since February. All right, the company has an $800 million restructuring plan. Now, revenue is down, okay? But connected fitness gross margin got hammered, okay? Negative 98.1. They're dealing with some logistics problems, okay? But here it is. They booked 383 million in subscription revenue. This is something that like NordicTrack never did, right? If you had all of these exercise equipment makers that were all over TV in the 90s or 2000s or whatever it is, right? They always had to sell, excuse me, sell the equipment. I mean, if you ever had a back end on that equipment of subscription revenue, who knows where NordicTrack might be right now if they had subscription revenue to go with selling the actual equipment, okay? So 383 million in subscription revenue, up 36% from a year. Now, I don't own Peloton folks. I'm not telling you to buy it right now, but this company's valued at $4 billion. It looks like the CEO is willing to just spend what they have to right now in a short-term period to get things changed, an $800 million restructuring plan. We're seeing a lot of that cost play out right now over the last three months and probably in this quarter we're in right now, okay? McCarthy's previously been at Netflix and Spotify made it clear that he's more interested in pursuing growth on the subscription side of Peloton's business. This is something I can believe in, okay? Rather than putting such an emphasis on hardware, he should be, okay? There's nothing special about making exercise equipment for hardware folks, nothing at all. It's all been done, it's pretty cyclical.  He believes that Peloton's digital app will be core to the company's future. Peloton burned through 412 million in cash in the fourth quarter. Average negative cash flow was 650 million in each of the prior two quarters, so stemming that a bit, it ended June with only 1.25 billion in cash reserves and 500 million in credit facilities. So they gotta get their house in order, man, or else they're gonna have to go to the public for more money. This is some of the risks that you face if you're gonna get in right now, all right? But if you're looking to get into Peloton, say maybe you scale in, right? Maybe if you're looking for a longer term position, you scale in with maybe a 25% position or whatever you take fully, something like that, okay? It ended the last quarter with 2.97 million connected fitness subscriptions about flat with the prior quarter levels, okay? Not good, not growing there, all right? 2.97 million connected fitness subscriptions. Up 27% from a year ago, okay? Connective fitness subscribers are people who own a Peloton product such as its original bike and also pay a monthly fee for access to live and on-demand workout classes. Its total member count, though, declined by about 143,000 people from the prior quarter to 6.9 million. The company hopes to one day amass 100 million members. Now, when I got a little confused in the airfoam, maybe anybody within the Tigers then, you could help me out, is the difference here between how they categorize connected fitness subscriptions, okay, versus their member count. Obviously the member count, maybe you're not paying for that in some capacity because it's dipping, but you're at 6.9 million versus 2.9 million connected fitness subscriptions. Nonetheless, if you just focus on this number right here, they get 3 million people paying, okay? They have that number providing, what do we just say, 383 million in subscription revenue, all right? Usually you're gonna be able to get this number with some decent margins, man, okay? That's a big part of it. As in you're telling subscription revenue on a product that's basically an internet class streamed live. Folks, there's a million YouTube live streams. If you want exercise classes that you can pay for free. The thing that perplexed me most when Peloton went public, folks, now we'll go all the way back to the beginning of their story, okay? I used to see their ads on Bloomberg all the time as somebody that was really into biking, just bicycle riding outside. I was always like, that's really interesting, you know? It's amazing that they can have this type of advertising on a network like Bloomberg that I know is expensive, okay? And that they're just running that type of average. What is this company? I look it up, of course. I look it up before they go public. Ah, it's a huge private equity company, okay? Backed by all this private equity, they're gonna go public, okay. So what happens? They go public in September of 2019, the stock opened somewhere around $27, runs up to $37, okay? Now at that time, you're talking about a company because right now we're at about $4 billion, okay? They've got 337 million shares outstanding. But at that time, you're talking about a company that's pushing $10, $12 billion. And I always said, folks, I can't understand why people are paying $1500 for an exercise bike and then you gotta pay like 45 or 50 bucks a month to use it with their classes. That seems absurd, okay? That's more than most gym memberships. Maybe it's not more than most, okay? But it's basically the cost of a gym membership. I think I belong to LA Fitness. I might have canceled it recently. I gotta look in just because I wasn't using it enough. But LA Fitness, some of those have pools. They have saunas, they have entire locker rooms, and I was paying $25 a month. So you're telling me I'm gonna buy an exercise bike and pay $50 a month to use that exercise bike that I just paid $1500 for? Well, one of the happening folks, yeah, that was basically the gist. Things got out of whack during COVID and it all came crashing down when the whole world realized the same thing. Hey, when I was trapped at home, I could justify that type of cost. And if I wanted a Peloton bike, I bought it sometime during COVID. Because if I waited till now, I'm not spending 1500 bucks on it right now to spend that type of recurring revenue. But nonetheless, you know what the company figured out? They probably should be selling the bikes at break-even and signing people up for recurring.  Because if you can get a long-term subscriber paying a recurring fee at a margin that's gonna be pretty high once they overcome their fixed costs, maybe that's a recipe for success in the future. Nonetheless, not this morning. Peloton gives it back off 14.5% this morning. Just keep it in mind. There is a bull case for Peloton out there. They might have a period of time going forward another six, 12, 18 months where they gotta get it under control. Stay tuned, folks. We got markets in positive territory. I'll be right back in three minutes. 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We got the S&P sitting right where we opened right now. Positive by nine, NASDAQ 100 in the green. You get the Dow slipping to negative territory a bit. Below 32,900, we jumped to crude. Gives back some of those gains under 95 bucks. We jump over to gold. Positive by about $5 on the session, but given up some of those gains, man, we were almost at 1780 this morning. Gold gives up about $10 in the last hour right now. It's 1767, and we jump to notes and bonds. You're seeing a little bit of lower price and higher yield coming into FedSpeak as we approach 3.12%, the yield on the tenure. All right, let's jump around to some of the other stocks that have earnings going on this morning. We jumped to Snowflake. You talk about some big numbers, man. Up 16.7%, they were at 192 on the open. They give back some of it, still quite an open for Snowflake. NVIDIA, they were lower, so much for that. They opened basically and pushed a flat. NVIDIA, excuse me, on their numbers. You're flat at about 172 for NVIDIA shares. We jump over to some of the other companies that have their numbers. As we scroll down the line, where are we at? Here we go. So Dollar Tree and Dollar General. Oh, both out with their numbers. Jumping over to those two charts. Dollar Tree gives back 12%. Dollar General gives back 2.3% as they're out with their numbers. What else do we have out this morning?  Abercrombie and Fitch, you talk about trade and lower, man, A and F, down 9%. We take a look at this thing, man. Yeah, you talk about some problems. Look at this run you had, man. From the depths of COVID at seven bucks, we're basically back to where COVID started after spending the better part of last year, accelerating to a high of almost $50 for Abercrombie and Fitch. So much for that, you're down 8% this morning on their weak numbers. Yeah, and sales force I wanted to get to. Cut its full year guidance. Economic uncertainty slows the pace of customer deals. Better than expected sales and profit for the most recent quarter with the market saying, oh, slowing the pace of deals going forward in the next quarter. Economic uncertainty is the catchphrase there. Sales force down 7.9% on their numbers. Pretty remarkable that you give back everything you had during COVID, man. Down to 115, up to 311, sales force back to 165. This is a strong company. Cloud is the future, but you're dealing with some multiples here. And revising that, investor wants to hear going forward. How about this story out from Boeing? Airplane seems like it'd be a bullish story for Boeing when their jets, how about $300,000 a month? Aircraft lessers are reaping the benefits of airplane shortages in past 2019 levels. Leasing firm execs said many of their customers are extending leases with new planes, hard to find the rent on a 737 max rising more than 20% between April of 2020 and this July to a solid $316,000 a month. That's quite a price tag, but hey, you're getting a 737 max, you're getting it for the whole month. You do it per day, that's only 10 grand a day, man, for a whole 737 max. But then you got to pay for everything else that comes with it, man. The competing Airbus A320 Neo, $324,000 in a month, up version of the A321 EO, 375 a month. Yeah, look at these rates, man. All right, so what do we got? We got the black here is the A321 EO, all right, that's not right back up to where you were, but you look at the other ones in terms of the 737 max, eight is in yellow here. You go from 310 to 316, aircrafts in demand. Even what's interesting about this article that caught me the most, right, is you hear airlines decreasing the routes that they're providing, right? So you have aircraft decreasing the number of routes and what's gonna happen there is that that's gonna allow them having worker shortages, et cetera, to maybe be servicing those planes they have while allowing them to charge higher costs, right? We've seen some of the airlines come out and say they're actually flying in less routes but making a lot more money. Why? Because demand is so high. Well, if that was the case, there should be plenty of airplanes laying around outside of the airlines, not the case, folks, okay? Not the case at all. The higher costs come, of course, as inflation's up there. So you're talking about 300,000, man, in a big way. You have one gentleman here who's a chairman of an LA-based air lease and company's lease extension rate nearing never before seen 90%. It usually runs 65 to 70. A lot of lease extensions on planes that a year ago were projected that would have to re-market. That means the company doesn't have to worry about transition costs at all. They don't have to market anything, man. Everybody just says, give me that plane back. Planes are through the roof. I want a plane. There you go. Yeah, look it. So passenger traffic rising in 76% in June from a year earlier, but still down about 29% before the pandemic, right? Down, but guess what? Probably a little bit of divergence there when you talk about leasing planes, maybe the well-off doing the most well-off, right? In terms of real estate prices, stock market prices versus where they were all two years ago. If you were leasing a plane in the last year or two, you're probably in a better spot right now than were a year or two ago considering the price of assets and where they are. And if planes are hard to come by, why not, man? Scoop up and play it for a year at least. We jump over to Boeing shares this morning. And they're up about 1.3%. So this one's an interesting one with Boeing, man. If you're looking for some action on Boeing, you're back within this channel. You do want to break out of this channel to the upside eventually. This is pushing a year and a half, folks. You break out of that channel to the downside. We get back in it just recently and at the end of last month, maybe we come down and touch the bottom portion of that at some point. We were just trading at 157 that earlier this week. Yes, it sure is, 157 on Monday. And just like that, Boeing's up to 166, catching a little bit of a bid this morning with the market. Let's jump over to some of the airlines. Yeah, we get the airlines straight and higher as well. Delta's up about 1.5% right now. United up about 1.5%. American, similar, about 2%. We jumped domestically. JetBlue up 1.3. Southwest right now up about 1.6. Let's see how the cruise ships are doing. Carnival up about 4%. We take a look at this thing. And yeah, you know, I, here, what's this? I wanna see something crazy folks. This downtrend channel that it's been in for the last couple of years, almost an extension of its highs of 2018. You take the COVID acceleration out of there and this thing has basically been in a downtrend from $72 sitting at 10 bucks right now. That's a monthly, okay? We just put this thing back on a five year daily and we just zoom in on where this recent trend started accelerating. And yeah, you know, maybe this is your point. You just treat this thing for a bounce to the upside, man, carnival. You know, you're talking about a stock that could trade as high as 16, 17 bucks if you just trade to the upside of this channel line. And again, folks, it's an art, not a science. Where's the top portion of this channel line, right? Could you make the case that maybe it's a little bit lower? Maybe a little bit of linear regression, matching those up? Maybe that's where it is. Nonetheless, you've got quite a large channel. You could trade to the upside. The thing I'll say is they got so much debt right now, folks, the thing that you're doing is you're taking a risk. Okay, because they have so much debt that unless things really start turning back on in all cylinders, if they face any type of interruption that they're not foreseeing right now, some great articles have been written to say, listen, if there's ever any type of COVID flair, and I don't see that coming, okay? But you never know, folks, as we all found out two and a half years ago. But even more probably, more probable would just be an economic turn down that maybe retirees are a little bit more worried about their nest egg. Maybe they're not cruising like the level that they thought they were. You could see this company go BK. So be careful if you're getting into that equity. But maybe this is the area. As you break back within that channel line, Carnival's up 3.8% today. We jump over to Norwegian up about 3.4%. Different story there. Probably got a downtrend in similar category on this trend since about the high of June of 2021 as well. But the market's holding up relatively well so far. We'll talk a little bit of FedSpeak when we get back here. As Kansas City's Feds George says it has to get rates higher to slow down demand. Speaking on Bloomberg TV this morning, already the headlines starting to come out. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigris' for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. 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For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns. Finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices, get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything, from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement that you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We catch a little bit of lift. The volatility begins right now. Not sure what just got said. Maybe it was something or maybe it was nothing or maybe it's just people buying right now, but we've got all the markets back in the green with the S&Ps up 21, Nasdaq 100, Europe 80, you get the Dow up 40, Russell right now up 16. Crude sitting right at 95 bucks this morning. We've got gold up $6 and we jump to notes and bonds. Pretty tame action so far to kick things off with the tenure sitting at about 3.1%. So we'll kick it off with some of the headlines, one of the headlines at least that we get from Esther George, Kansas City Fed. She's talking about has to get rates higher to slow down demand and may have to take them above poor percent for a time. They said, that's what she says. It's very important that we're clear on our communication about the destination we are headed. This is from Jackson Hole this morning. We have to get interest rates higher to slow down demand and bring inflation back to our target. Seems pretty reasonable. That's what everybody's saying, okay? Asked how high the Fed should raise rates. There was more room to go is the quote and push back against bets in financial markets. The central bank will begin cutting rates next year. Folks, if you see the market start to reprice the probability of cuts coming next year and I don't see that happening at least not yet. We'll see what Chairman Powell has to say tomorrow. That would be a game changer. I think we will have to hold. It could be over 4%. I don't think that's out of the question. You won't know that, I think, until you begin to watch the data signs. Very true in that we don't know what's gonna happen, folks, until it plays out. That's why some of the optimism may be a little bit misplaced with the market trading near 4200 when we got a last CPI print at 8.5. Is it theoretical that what the Fed is doing right now tames the inflation that we're seeing? Of course it is. Does the data back that up yet? Not even close. So we'll see where we go from there. We got a Fed meeting that begins September 20th, 21st, ahead of that, right? We're gonna come back from the long weekend Labor Day and what's gonna happen, folks? We're gonna be two weeks out from a Fed meeting. We're gonna start getting jobs numbers. We're gonna start getting CPI numbers and it's all gonna matter, but before we do that, we get some Fed speak today. It should be an interesting one, folks. Stay tuned. We got our man Basil Chapman. He is coming up next, folks. Then we got our man Steve Rhodes at 11, fast marketed 12, Larry at one, Dave White at two, and our man Larry Pescimento filling in again today for my dad live at three o'clock. Don't miss it, folks. Live, folks.


Everlane Hall Winter Wardrobe Essentials. So I probably just needed to listen to some of my own advice there. But the reality is I'm just not actually a very good cook. Actually, I'd quite like to keep that for myself. Hi, everyone. I hope you're all well and feeling that's an organized, ready for the festive period. So today's video is one last hurrah before Christmas with one of my favorite brands for those classic, timeless winter wardrobe essentials. It's my final Everlane Hall of 2021 and I can't wait to show you everything I chose. So grab yourself a cupboard, sit back, relax, and let me inspire you with some outfits and some last-minute Christmas present ideas. So first up on my winter essentials rail would be a beautiful pair of the crew trousers that could enable me to do all those lovely winter white outfits that I love so much. Now I haven't seen this pair on Everlane before, so I'm assuming they're new in for their collection. These have been made from a fabric called Monskin. If you're not familiar with that fabric, it feels beautifully soft, almost like you're wearing velvet. Now the second thing to note is, I don't know why I did this. I think I did it by accident, but I've ordered these in a size six and normally I think I wear a size four Everlane. However, as you can see in this footage, these fit me perfectly. I definitely couldn't have gone a size down. So I've either put on weight or I'm meant to be a size six in this pair of trousers. Either way, I'm really not fussed about size labels. I do believe if you don't like seeing it, just cut it out. Know for the fit that it looks nicest on your body shape. I must apologize as well. I am still sounding very husky today from the awful cold I had. What was it the day before we went to Paris, which is so annoying. I didn't let it ruin our trip away, but I must admit I've had quite a few sofa days this week and I am feeling better actually. I think I just sound worse than I feel to be honest. Now what I love about this pair of trousers is compared to say in summer where I would wear a pair of white jeans and do that all white look. In winter, you kind of feel the need or I feel the need to have a slightly thicker fabric and I think that's what you're getting from this small skin. Along with being really lovely to the touch, it feels more appropriate for winter. But if you didn't want to do a winter white look, I do think there are lots of options with a pair of trousers like this. I think they would look great with Breton stripes, either classic navy or maybe the burgundy reds. I would wear those with virtually all of my snug units. I think that's always a winner. And you could even smarten them up a bit, wear them with a nice set of blouse, maybe a blazer over the top. So lots of different outfit ideas for those. I like them a lot. Now thinking about those last minute Christmas present ideas, don't panic because there's still time to shop at Everlay. And I picked up this beautiful cashmere crew neck that I'm wearing, which was meant to be for David. I say meant to be because I did, with all good intentions, choose it in an extra large. However, once it's arrived and I tried it on for the purpose of this video, I kind of thought, well actually, I'd quite like to keep that for myself. So whether you're still looking for a few Christmas gifts for other people or like me gifting things to yourself, don't panic because there is a couple of days left to do that shopping at Everlane. Now, Everlane used grade A cashmere. So it's really the creme de la creme of that yarn. We've all been there, I'm sure, and bought cashmere that's bobbled to with an inch of its life. And it's really annoying because it's not the cheapest thing in the world. I can hand on heart say, Everlane's cashmere is such high quality. It really doesn't do that. I've got a couple of pieces there that are three, possibly four years old, and they've got three or four bubbles on them. It really is that minimal. So beautiful quality as always, a lovely new ink color on their website, and a happy accident with that sizing. I am very happy with my Christmas present to me. Sorry, David. These are the Italian leather Chelsea boots new in on Everlane's website. This was a bit of an interesting one, actually, because I loved them when I saw them on the website, so I added them to cart. When they arrived, I was kind of like, I'm not sure if they're really my style. But then when I tied them on with a few different avi-ideas, I fell in love with them again. Isn't it weird how that happens that sometimes you just need to try something on with a very you kind of outfit to get the gist of whether you like it or not? And then I think that's what happened with these. They are quite different from my usual style of ankle boots. I often go for some sort of heel. I like a pointed toe, neither of which are featured on this pair of boots. And maybe that's why it works. I've stepped myself out of my comfort zone, which I always advise you should do. So I probably just needed to listen to some of my own advice there. Onto a lovely pair of jeans, which I am very, very happy with. These are Everlane's Way High Jeans, which I have ordered in the light Indigo. First things first, I absolutely love the color. I think they've got that vintage blue shade spot on. These have got a straight leg and as the name would suggest, a very high waist. Jeans are kind of an essential in my wardrobe all year round. I do wear them an awful lot. And in winter, I just find them so easy to mix and match with either a lovely jumper, maybe a nice blouse. They're just very, very versatile. I suppose traditionally in winter, you could go for a dark shade of denim if you wanted to. I just have a bit of a love for this light blue shade. So I tend to wear it all year round. Now these jeans have got such a nice shape to the leg that I think they look nice both ways, either with a turn up or just leaving the leg straight down. And as a bit of a bonus, these are actually made from organic cotton. So it just makes me like them even more. So we've got just under a week before Christmas and I am feeling so disorganized. My tree is up and it looks lovely. So I'm very pleased with that. And then I was feeling the pressure from the neighbors who had all decorated outside of the house beautifully and a few really pathetic lights in a bush. So I kind of upped my game on that front last night, put all twinkly lights around the door. I haven't thought what I'm gonna cook for Christmas dinner and certainly not any extravagant recipes. But part of me wants to be like Delia on Christmas day and have this amazing feast for my family. But the reality is I'm just not actually a very good cook so it would never look like that. I kind of get to the stage where I think if I see one more post on Instagram where someone has wrapped every single present and they're already on prepping their homemade Christmas cake, I think I might cry with disappointment at my own abilities. So anyway, if you have any tips or tricks or maybe like a brilliant recipe that will make me look far more talented in the kitchen than I actually do, let me know in the comment section below. I would be very grateful for that. Now some of you might remember seeing this felted merino half-sip jumper that I got from Everlane last month. Now if you follow me over on Instagram, which I'm very grateful if you do, you will have seen that I tend to wear this an awful lot. So much so that I decided to go for it in the plum grate as well. This half-sip is particularly on trend. I've seen that an awful lot for this winter 2021. So that's the first tip there. Secondly, the merino that they've used is pretty chunky so it's very, very warm. That makes it a really practical winter wardrobe essential. And I am definitely of the opinion that staple pieces in your wardrobe don't need to be boring, in the slightest actually. When you find pieces like this in beautiful quality and a lovely collection of shades, they can actually end up being standout pieces. So this tone is called the plum gray and I went for it in a size medium. And as you will see in that footage there, I've styled it in the south for idea with the way high skinny jeans, got a pair of ankle boots on and finished the look with a beautiful new in handbag. My first thought when I saw this was that it would go really nice with this dress. This is the knitted tube dress that I bought from Cozz in the summer, I think. But making use of it throughout winter, I thought those two tones go beautifully together. And another idea that I really love is pairing my chunky knit jumpers or cardigans with some sort of silk element on my bottom half. So maybe a pair of silk trousers or a silk midi skirt. It's the mixture of textures that I think one really works and looks quite unexpectedly chic. Now the only piece in this entire Everlane haul that I'm not completely sure about, so I would really like your opinion actually, would be this pair of 90s cheeky denim jeans. So these are them in the wash black and I went for them in my usual size 28. First of all, I noticed on their website that it says our customers are noticing that these come up large, so we would recommend sizing down. And I would say they're coming up large on the hips section. As you can see, there's a good couple of inches there on either side of me and I don't particularly have small hips. So it does seem slightly big at that section. But if I'd a size down like they recommend you do so, I don't think I would be able to do the button up at the waistband. It's quite tight already and that's going with my usual size. So I'm just not sure if shape wise it's all working as it should be. Saying that, when I watched this footage back and I looked at the outfit idea, I actually really liked them on more so than I did when I looked in the mirror. So I think it's one of those that might come down to personal taste and also of course, depending on your body shape. Now I've styled these pretty simply so you can really see the shape of the jeans, just pairing them with a lovely new in cotton t-shirt. That one's in the gray mile there. But I did want to mention their t-shirts because they are such lovely quality and lots of them made from organic cotton that when it comes to those winter wardrobe essentials I would always recommend their cottons. Actually I went for that one in the gray that's plain and then I've got that slightly pinky toned mile one with the pocket and then also I went for the white with the pocket as well. So I'm a big fan of their cotton t-shirts both with the short sleeves and the long sleeve versions as well. Everlane have got a really good selection of jeans and I've been very lucky over the last couple of years to try out lots of their different pairs. And I would say that my favorites that I've tried so far are the really high skinny ones that I got in dark Indigo. I've worn those heaps actually. I love my slouchy ones that I've got a very tiny bit of distressed detailing and I really do like this new pair that I've got here. But I do think when it comes to jeans it's very much personal taste. I think we all like something different. I would say forget about trends just go with what really suits you, what suits your shape and what makes you feel comfortable because ultimately if like me you wear jeans an awful lot throughout all of the different seasons you want to start with comfort and then everything else will fall into place. Talking of comfort and something that I personally love to receive on Christmas Day would be a lovely set of loungewear. So I went for this lovely jogger set in a tone that they call Field Green. Now if you've ever bought Everlane's French Terry before you will remember that it's quite heavyweight. These ones are quite different because they're very much a lighter weight version. No less quality, they feel beautiful to wear and actually they drape really nicely because of the nature of that fabric. So you've got the hoodie there with a slightly contrasting toggle at the front and then the jogger portion with the matching toggle and then you've got the little embroidered Everlane details. Now I went for these in a medium and I am nearly five foot eight. I always mentioned the nearly parts that half an inch is important to me. And I would say they are a perfect fit whereas I was imagining they would be a little bit more oversized. So if you are thinking about buying the jogger set for yourself or maybe as a Christmas present for somebody else I would advise sizing up once, possibly twice if you like things really oversized as these are just fitting me almost like a true to size. So that's how I would style it when I'm out and about but this is definitely the sort of thing I would wear when I'm at home, I finish work, I've turned the camera off and I'm getting cozy and comfy on the sofa. Another couple of Christmas gift ideas. Firstly with this beautiful scarf that I went for in a crew. Now this one has been made from the same felted merino as the half set jumpers. So really lovely quality and quite a chunky yarn. Now I actually went for this for my lovely friend but I will just quickly show you what it looks like on in terms of length. So I normally wear scarves or something like that. But as you can see nice and long, quite chunky coming quite high up on the neck to keep nice and toasty. I thought that would be a lovely Christmas present. And then either to go with this or as a separate present for somebody else, you could go with the matching beanie as well. This one has been made from wool and just a tiny bit of stretch in there as well. Do you love a beanie? And always much needed in a great British winter. So it's really worth having a look at Everlane's selection of accessories because it's always a bit of a go-to for me for stocking fillers, Christmas gift ideas for friends, family and of course the boys. So hopefully you agree some lovely winter wardrobe essentials from Everlane there and some lovely ideas for Christmas too. Don't forget to let me know your favourites in the comments section below. It's always really nice to hear everyone's different opinions. And before you go, I did want to say a huge thank you to all of you for all of your support this year.  I do honestly have to pinch myself how lucky I am. So thank you for being you, genuinely. I am really grateful for every single one of my subscribers and all those really lovely comments you leave me. The only downside of my channel growing is that I can't reply to everybody and it really frustrates me actually. So hopefully with a couple of weeks off I can catch up with everyone in the comments section and reply to all those lovely messages. But I do read every single one of them and I'm very grateful for your support. So I'm going to take a couple of weeks off for Christmas. Maybe practice my cooking skills, spend time with the boys and David and just generally have a little bit of a rest. But I will be back in the new year with lots more outfit ideas and inspiration for 2022. Have an amazing Christmas everyone. Here's to you and a very healthy and happy new year. See you soon.


Oh my goodness, do not listen to this. This is terrible advice. I don't know where this pro pornography propaganda is coming from. Do not bring pornography into your relationship. It is destructive, damaging, and dangerous. Just ask the millions of lives that have husbands that are addicted to pornography. Maybe you're stuck in a cycle of watching pornography and you want to break free. If that's the case, DM me on Instagram and I have some resources for you.


The life expectancy of athletes depends on the sport they play. The entropagate concept, which has been successful in previous nutritional studies, will be used to assess the relationship between athletes' longevity and nutrition. Based on their calorie requirements, diets are designed for each athlete group according to the latest guidelines during their career and for the post-retirement period. Metabolic entropy generation is then calculated for each group. The expected average lifespan for male athletes is 56 years for cyclists, 66 years for weight lifters, 75 years for rugby players, and 92 years for golfers. If these athletes begin consuming a retirement diet at age 50, the cyclists can extend their lives by 7 years, weight lifters by 22 years, rugby players by 30 years, and golfers by 8 years. This article was authored by Senec Yildiz, Melec E. C. Ongel, Bayram Yilmis, and others.


Even though most city facilities may be close to the public, city staff are working around the clock to maintain essential city services and identify new ways to provide services that protect your health and the safety of public employees. Many city employees are out in the field. Police and fire are protecting public safety. Water is delivering drinking water and treating wastewater. Public works is maintaining critical infrastructure like roads and parks. And staff are working from home and in the office to support these teams and many others. Over the last four months, fire has responded to 630 incidents where advanced life support was provided to patients with COVID and flu-like symptoms. Police has fielded over 1,000 public health violation calls and helped conduct health order education to local businesses. Water has continued to deliver more than 17 million gallons of high-quality drinking water to city residents and recycled nearly 15 million gallons of wastewater at the Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant. City bus drivers have provided 220,000 free bus trips for residents' essential travel needs. Transportation and public works has completed nearly 3,000 tons of asphalt patching and used 19.2 tons of asphalt for pothole repairs. And 2,048 gallons of crack seal to maintain city roadways. Recreation staff have distributed meal packs and called 1,000 seniors each month to provide companionship check-ins. And since we can't meet in person, the city has virtually hosted close to 750,000 hours of internal and public meetings with well over 13,500 participants. The city has also served 543 individuals experiencing homelessness at the city's Sam Jones Hall Shelter, the safe social distancing site and through placements and hotel rooms. Provided modified summer camps for 570 children, including youth from at-risk neighborhoods and provided virtual tutoring for children in need. Launched a virtual permitting center that has issued over 1,200 permits to keep development moving. And all this work is being supported by IT, human resources, finance and the communications teams. Throughout this public health emergency, your city has been here working for you and we will continue to do so.


I'm Rob Vane, I'm the creative director at Fullproof. I'm here to talk to you today about how we turn giant leaps into small steps for Suzuki customers. The work that I'm going to show you today was work that we conducted in the UK. And just to give you a bit of context, Fullproof is a UK and Singapore-based experience design consultancy. And almost the year to the day, we were acquired by Zenzar, who are an IT company based in India. So they have offices in Pune and Mumbai. And a couple of the representatives are here. So hello to them. So the two things that I suppose I want to uncover for you today is, firstly, how we turn those big leaps into small steps by really understanding the customer mindset and the role of the website in the buying process. And the second thing I want to do is to just show you how successful that work was as well and how you really, really need to deeply understand customer motivations and how you need to get the customers involved in the design process right from the start. Before I get into the detail, I just want to share with you our design philosophy that we have at Fullproof. And it's this. By understanding people, we craft design which helps them make sense of anything so that they can confidently make good decisions for themselves. Regardless of the project that comes in, this is our guiding light, our North Star, the start for every brief that we undertake in our studio. And the active word here is confidence. I know it's tiny on here, but confidence is a theme that we will continually come back to as a move through this talk. And I've been doing, I've been in this game for about 20 years. And the first decade of my career was really about getting businesses and people online. Increasingly, the second kind of decade of my career has been about understanding the interplay between on and offline and the role that each one of those takes in the customer's mind.  So although I'm talking to you about cars, I imagine that you will probably all have situations or briefs or projects where you need people to confidently make that move to a purchasing decision which happens outside of the website. When Suzuki came to us, it was probably about 18 months ago to brief us on the project. Obviously, the objective was to sell more cars. They were investing money in this new website, and it obviously had to pay for itself. But actually, when we started to analyze it, of course, the role of the website and the objective for us as a studio was to drive footfall into dealers. It was really about getting people into those dealerships. And when people got there, actually, the conversion rate for people who walked into dealers was 70%. Over two-thirds of people who walked into a dealership ended up buying a car. So it was absolutely critical that we drove footfall. But as I've mentioned, getting people from here, this website, this is the old website, by the way, not the new one, to hear into the dealer can feel like a chasm. It really does require a big leap of faith. And the reason it requires a big leap of faith is because if you are not confident in what it is you're buying, if you're not confident about going into a salesman's den where you have to haggle, negotiate on price, or be haggled by the dealer, it can be really, really intimidating. So what we needed to do was we needed to improve people's confidence in order to do that. And as many of our clients do, Suzuki, when they briefed us, came armed with lots and lots of data, lots and lots of analytics, lots and lots of numbers. That was great, right? But in fact, when we did closer analysis, we realized that all of the data, all of their understanding about customers was based on their reaction to the product specifically and the marketing and advertising campaigns that they had undertaken. What they did not have an appreciation of was how people used their website to make purchasing decisions. And so that was a really, really big gap that we needed to fill. And the way that we had to fill it was to create a plan that involved customers and crucially dealers, because dealers, remember, are the people who actually sell to those customers in those showrooms and know a hell of a lot about the kind of mindset that customers come in to the dealers with. We had to use those guys during the design process. So the gaps that we needed to fill, understand customer expectations and mindset, understand the interplay between on and offline and the role of Suzuki.co.uk, and then develop some design principles which would inform future design direction. Now, at this point, we could have spent a lot of time talking to a lot of people, doing lots and lots of research, burning the client's budget down. But in fact, what we did was we opted to make something and make something really, really quickly. We had a pretty good idea based on the expertise and knowledge that we have in our business and previous projects that we'd undertaken. We kind of knew where the answer laid. So we made something. And what we did was we made a thing. This is the thing that we made. And we made it to basically throw it away. We used it as stimulus in research sessions. And the way that we ran those research sessions was by putting this, this is a simple click-through prototype that we built in Sketch. And used it as stimulus with focus groups, mini focus groups. So about three or four people in a room with a moderator, they're really good for getting discourse and opinion and conversation out there. But bigger focus groups in our experience tend to get dominated by maybe one or two people. And there are, frankly, more places for people to hide in those sessions. So we use really, really small, tight focus groups to test this stuff. Now, the thing that we learned was that what we created is something kind of really kind of rather over-complicated. It turned out that car buyers have a very, very low expectation of manufacturers' websites. They really don't believe that they are the place that they should go first for the information that they need. They will actually go to independent review sites. They will ask friends and family. They will do everything, really, but not go to the actual manufacturer's site. The manufacturer's site is really there to confirm all of the information that they have gathered during those initial kind of research periods. And I'll come on to that a little bit more in a sec. But yeah, so they had very low expectations. And they also came to these sites with a, they already knew what they wanted. They already knew the model. They already knew even the trim level that they wanted. So the crucially what we needed to do was to get people to those cars as quickly as we possibly could. So all these ideas that we had, these whizzy wizards and step-throughs and filters and everything else, people were like, no, no, no, just show it. Just get me to the car. Just get me to the car. And the other thing was that you've probably seen these kind of complex configurators where you can choose the color and the color and the trim and the type of wheels that you want and everything else. And that's fine if you're buying a Lamborghini or Ferrari and you're dreaming. But these guys are buying a practical everyday car and they really didn't engage with that kind of functionality at all. Work did was very quickly align us around what the role of the website was during the purchase journey. So during the research part of it, help users compare the range and assist with basic fact-finding. Shortlisting, which is really, really important, getting onto the shortlist, getting onto that maybe two or three manufacturer shortlist is very, very important. If you don't get there, you're not going to move forward in the process. Emotionally engage users in a specific model and communicate the main benefits and offer some sort of independent review content or ratings at that time. When they're in the comparison stage, whenever they're comparing not just options within Suzuki's range, but also outside of that manufacturer's range with others, help them compare the things that are really important to them in terms of equipment, highlight value for money, which is a really strong Suzuki promise, and begin to allow them to personalize it and make it theirs. But as we learn, don't overcomplicate that. And then finally, when they're ready to commit, make that handover between the dealer and the site seamless. So once we've delivered that proof of concept, we then moved into prototyping. So remember, we are constantly making things. We are constantly refining and making things. We're not talking about making stuff. We are making stuff. Now here, what we were doing was we were fleshing out our thinking. And we changed the type of research methodology now from many focus groups into one-to-one depth testing in our labs at foolproof. So we could really start to evaluate in detail the ideas that we had. You can see here the type of sketch work that we did, the way that we evolved and iterated the designs. This particular page, I've got to tell you, which is the range page, was really, really tough because it had to do so many things. And we were constantly changing and refining the order of the content that we needed to show, which is why we were cutting bits of the website out and trying different variations of it. And as you can see on the left-hand side, sorry, on the right-hand side, your right-hand side, the way that that started to culminate, not just in terms of layout, but also in terms of look and feel, where we really started to push the brand. Now as a result of that research, we began to compose a more sophisticated understanding of the customer. And I guess we settled on the types of mindsets that people have whenever they're in that purchase flow. So the first is those consumers who go online first. So these guys like to research.  So they will use endless review sites. They will look at forums. They will do lots and lots of research. And clearly, the car manufacturer site does have a role to play here when it comes to the amount of detail that they're showing. Because in fairness, the car manufacturer site can and should provide detail that nowhere else does. Albeit, as I said at the start, most of them didn't really do that. The second was dealer first. So these guys went to the dealers. Typically they would visit maybe two or three dealers in a weekend, but some might visit four or five. But their view is that there's no point getting excited about what a car looks like on a website because they need to go and see it in the flesh. They need to go and kick the tires. They need to feel the door handles, hear the door close, sit in the car. But once they've done that, they will then come back to the website to basically check all the facts. And then they will go to the dealer and they will basically entrust the dealer to sell them the car. So they put a lot of faith in the dealer's understanding of the product. And then finally, I guess the agnostic user who, depending on convenience, depending on the amount of time they have, how certain they are of what it is they're wanting to buy, they will either use online or they will use the dealers. And so it really depends on a number of factors. But the point is they seem like very, very simple statements, but in fact they have a massive impact on the type of journey that they're going to take. I'm conscious of time, so I'm going to rattle through this. We moved into design and development cycles with back end, front end, integrators, content guys, all sitting in a room in our offices working on these cycles. And we continually tested and evaluated this right, which is rapid iterative testing and evaluation. We did this throughout those design cycles as well to test what we were doing. And at the moment, we're going through a period of deployment and optimization, now the site's live. So what does this mean? What did this actually mean for the end design and experience? So this is the home page. And what we really tried to do, if you remember the kind of work that we were doing at the prototype stage with lots of slashes and lots of graphics, we really, really simplified that down, really simplified it down to focus on the things that we knew were important to customers, like what does the car look like on the road? How much is it? How can I explore more about that particular model? And as you move down the page, we've got some very simple filtering options there, but nothing like the kind of complexity that we were proposing early on. And then underneath that, we were just merely showing the name of the model, how many doors has it got, the kind of car that it is, and the price as well. So the customers could really, really get into the detail quickly. When they've chosen a model range, then a similar kind of template there where we're using a video. Obviously, this is a static picture, but we'll be using a video. And starting to highlight things we knew were important to customers at that stage, like how fuel efficient is it, what's the CO2 emissions like, how safe is it. And then started to uncover or explain the kinds of features that differentiated these trim levels. So ordinarily, you might be expected to go through lots and lots of tables of things, but we really worked hard to try and simplify that for the customer, because we knew that these were the things that were important to them. We also commissioned a bunch of new photography. Really, the purpose of this, including these detail shots, was about getting somebody to feel like they were up close and personal with that particular vehicle, just helping to get them to feel like they were able to touch and feel that car. And that was also true as we moved down the screen, getting this kind of feeling of sitting in the car, starting to play with some of the different features. And then this is the trim level page. This is really the bit that I suppose espouses this kind of big leap to small steps. So as we move down the page, lots and lots of detail, will it fit in my garage? Here's some stuff about the kind of equipment that is particularly specific to this car. You can then start to gently customize this vehicle so it begins to feel like yours. And you can see down at the bottom, you've got this sticky nav down here, which will update as you change things. So you can change the color of the interior. You can choose the type of chassis, the number of driven wheels, transmission. You can start to accessorize. But again, this is fairly lightweight. This is a very logical step process that we tested and tuned with customers. And then there is the center dealer. This is the moment that feels we found, from the feedback that we had, this is the most logical next step. Hooray, that's what we want. That's what we wanted to do. So we also updated the motorcycle site, the ATV site, and the marine site as well based on the language that we did, design language that we made. And then these are the results. Really pleased with these results because what this does is it demonstrates that we did our job, okay? Now, somebody's just shown me a zero, which means I'm out of time. So what I'm gonna do, take a photograph of this last slide, because these are the principles that you should be applying to the design problems that you have, okay? I'm not gonna read these out because I'm supposed to get off now. So thank you very much for your time. Really appreciate it, I hope you enjoyed it.