I'm so excited with doing pretty good on some of these good swing trades a lot of action going on this week. Good to see Lawrence Brian everybody good to see you all. All right good good good. Just got loud and clear perfect all right good so let's get started so we got a lot of stuff going on like got Carvada what's going on with this damn stock I thought. You know we all I mean I was talking about this yesterday I don't know if some of you attended the event I did with D.T.I. Tom Bozy who's there. I was there last week in Florida- in Jacksonville we did a big onsite class. And just all the all these great traders I was talking about level four. I was on yesterday with metastock. I'm going to be on today we're actually going to have book map on. Tomorrow here so I'm going to be on there on their end today but- but the reason I was bringing this up is that we will talk about like following these orders and let me tell you something yesterday I want to show you this photograph I took yesterday which I think all of you would really appreciate. All right so I took a screenshot yesterday of this actions. All right so watch this photo right here so Carvada had look at this number right here. Three hundred thousand plus another hundred forty thousand okay that was a big screenshot from what happened all the way up all day yesterday and I took another screenshot. This one right here is the one I want to show you so it's a little bit closer you can see it and you can see this is right around twelve forty five look at that big fat red line showed up right there huge huge huge huge right there at ten at ten fifty and guess what the guy got taken out and now look at what we're having right here we just bring this up here that was that big resistance levels there from from yesterday. And listen I'm not talking about just other that's a winner. That's not really I'm here to brag or talk about what I'm talking about is why are we here to learn how to trade and protect our losses and this stock on major resistance levels at that price and the guy got taken out.  So listen I know a lot of you guys been day trading it it's been a phenomenal day trade but it's also been a really really good swing trade for a lot of us if you like I hopefully a lot of you here. And that trade the stock. Hopefully a lot of you here got the stock right around the four fifty that we own it at but but we're doing doing good I don't a lot shares of it actually believe or not.  Well there's different types of bankruptcies there's bankruptcy protection.   Basically you ruin your credit for about seven years but if you do bankruptcy sometimes you can't you can't pay the money back. You know let's say if you're making a hundred thousand dollars a year and you got you know half a million dollars in debt all you do is pay an interest. So you know what you file bankruptcy you wipe out all that half a million dollars you can have a tough time getting credit again but you've got zero debt.  I know we don't like to talk about that but that's what happens so don't underestimate when you learn in trading you learn a lot you know as money management and that's what helps out a lot. Anyway we're going to talk about a couple other stocks but we're going to talk about what also we traded yesterday. We have the CNTX that is actually moving right now. I have to know the big movie we're going to talk a little bit about this one is doing on F unbelievable right now but let me talk about the stocks we had. So we had Carvana that moved yesterday which is kicking into today. HSCS was another nice little runner there. You can see that stock was at 80 cents. The thing ran to about 260. It was a great great runner yesterday. That one is what we traded. GNS was another nice pop early in the morning. That ran from 5 to 750 and then obviously a dump later but you know we had time to kind of like be prepared for that. What else that we had to it was a BB AI was a was a nice little movie yesterday 240 to about 430. And it was nice about this stock had a really really nice run going into the close you can see from three o'clock right here. I'm bringing this up right here you can see right here had a great run from 330 to 4 o'clock what a really nice run almost a dollar.  And then IQ IQ has just been also a very very nice stock that moved also yesterday to a very nice slow steady. Anyway that's what happened yesterday. Shockingly for a Monday you know we had a couple of big movers but what's going on. What's going on this today so we get the Fed meeting. Okay we're going to see what the hell they're talking about see if they're going to raise rates. You know that there's a lot of a lot of people worried about certain things that are going on in the world right now so we need to be prepared. A lot of earnings are coming out.  We'll check it out a little bit later. Anyway what else is moving this morning listen there was a lot of stocks that were in the big percentage gainers. We're going to start off with the MSGM a lot of big buyers of stock at 7am the stock started around 610. It shot up to about right around 730 it's got a nice little push right here. I'm going to put that one on our watch list HILS it got the pretty big this morning but it's not really going anywhere. So I'm going to probably put this on the B list you know I'm going to put this on the B list anyway that's the second biggest percentage gainer up about 100% in pre-market. The better one the couple of better ones I probably like CNTX nice little move hold on I got to bring this back a little bit nice little move but it is coming up to some big resistance levels about $1.50. It's almost there and let me go check out level four hold on I got X out of a couple of things here. I got to upload it CNTX got check out the orders on this one. Let's wait for the data to come in okay we got data here. All right so I mean we got a couple of big buyers here $44,000 right around $0.90 but we got a couple of resistance $27,000 right around we get about $1.40. Kind of makes sense because that looks like the resistance going back you know and if you look at the daily chart. Another stock that gapped up really big was unbelievable yesterday in the aft hours was PBLI and you know it's funny I was doing what I was doing the event with DTI yesterday we were talking about this stock and this is what really bothers me okay. When you show people stocks that go up $0.30, $0.40, $0.50 in a short period of time, $1,000 shares, $0.50, $500, $100,000 and they still I'm not really interested like they still can't get it I just tell you better off just quit trading.   I don't even, first I don't know how to help people read that straight I mean it really makes absolutely zero sense let me get back to normal. Alright so anyway going down that list what else is moving these old really not really doing two months pretty decent volume on this one 12%, 4%, no really good trends there losers anything going on losers well we know why HSCS is going down. Nothing really going on there New York Stock Exchange this one's got some pretty good move F-O-X-O. Not bad stocks been on a really nice move up to 40 cents up $1.30 it's capped up a little bit it's down here we got Carbon on there we know about that one already CBNA.  So what else we got going on the spot is moving up pretty nicely SPOT it's up about 9% of $9 but what the hell am I doing it's just it's a $100 stock.  I had it like for two three days anyway AI has been moving really really nice I will keep an eye on AI. GNS nice little push in GNS look at that chart right there we've traded GNS before it's up at 7% 1.2 million shares trader ready. GNS let me check out to see what's going on with that one and AI check out the iceberg order see if you see any big block orders out there. Not really much in GNS I don't see I see this guy just show up here for about 100,000 kind of pushed it down. AI oh yeah look at this big iceberg order just got filled right here.  That's looks pretty good let me zoom out we see anything else out there $12 1315 not really like that looks like the biggest there. All right good good all right. Any other questions any other things we're missing by the way anybody on YouTube Facebook live any other stocks you guys are looking at. Remember you got to learn before you can earn a couple of things I just want to announce don't forget today we you got a real busy schedule. You got phase three with me for students you got traders talk with Josh at 11 o'clock you got book map that's coming up to a lot of education going on today. So remember you have to learn before you can earn you know it's great to see these things and having game plans and understanding following the money and following these orders learning how to trade like a market maker. You know like what that's what I do and that's what I teach everyone what to do but you got to learn before you can earn a Brian under cyber group room says KLD has been incredible swing trade. Yeah I know and you know what let me bring that up there and show everybody that has been an actual very good swing trade. This stock was $10 okay it's at 56 by the way I I sold my boil I got out of it. I took a little bit of a loss I told you this that I started trending down I got out a lot of it. It's almost the opposite of KLD. I also I also sold my Mara you know what it was at that big resistance levels right around here on the swing trades I got pretty much out of that too.  I'm really just holding Carvana and Home Depot right now to swing trades Home Depot starts back it off I'm to get down. I don't like I don't personally don't like old stocks when the Fed Ray talks it just like it's not worth it. All right that's okay listen you know Brian it's okay to lose you know losing money is not a bad thing it's a good thing you know if you lose and you know why you lost don't do that again. Somebody on YouTube has a question newbie here Fausto thank you very much for the quick question. When you trade here are you using options or stocks well we're using stocks. But I'm glad that you brought that up because I know you're new here to be a good options trader you have to learn how to trade stocks first because the movement of the stock that makes an option move. Okay I know everybody likes the leverage and everybody likes all that you know the techniques and strategies but I always tell everyone this who's more wealthier the person that owns the house or the person that rents the house.  Listen I got ready get ready for class it's going to start in about 30 minutes for all my students out there everybody on YouTube Facebook Twitter cyber traders trial members markets opening up in less than 15 minutes. Let's get ready for the market open if I don't see you in class I will see you I'll see you like I said we'll see you back at 2 30 for the afternoon meeting. And for everyone here on YouTube Facebook live just make sure you like us friend us check out our archives and we'll see every morning here and afternoon good luck everyone happy trading be safe and let's make some money.


Hello everyone, thank you very much for joining us this afternoon for this talk I'm extremely pleased to introduce Peter Hedenskog who is actually just joined the performance team yesterday Peter is a Very experienced web performance engineer. He runs the web performance meetup in Stockholm, Sweden And is the creator of several Popular and highly useful open-source tools for analyzing web performance Chief among which is sitespeed.io, which has gained quite a lot of traction and publicity recently Peter is going to be talking about web performance Unsurprisingly, so without further ado, I'll pass it over to him. No, it works, right? Yeah. Okay Perfect. So my name is Peter. It's me when I was little I'm from Sweden, you know, and you know Sweden, right? Yeah, and I'm from a small town called Uppsala and in the HBO series called the Vikings This is actually Uppsala. It doesn't look like that Really, but it's quite cool, right? It looks something like this the old base And I'm from Sweden and it's we don't have one really really cool thing We have that Twitter account Sweden, you know about it So each and each week a new user will have the account of Sweden as we and we'll talk about Sweden and this week, you know Louise is talking about San Francisco from a sweets point of view. So that's kind of cool. I think and The last thing about Sweden We are really good explaining things in pictures, right? You know that so let's see how I will do today I've been working with web performance for quite a while. I've been helping different companies to become faster and One thing that is really really really super important. I think you know already you've seen this, right? The muscle's hierarchy of needs and you see that Down below we have fast websites. It's super super important and you or you know that so that's it really Yeah, one thing you can pop me a question whenever you need whenever you feel something that you want to question me about so So we know that fast web says it's really super important, right and One thing that not everyone know I think you know but maybe not everyone it is the speed happens in the front end, right? And it was like this There's a guy like the godfather of web performance called sees others that did a study Many years ago where he tested the websites that I think it was top five fifty thousand websites and Compared how much time is spent in the front end and how much spend time is spent in the back end for a user Yeah, and he His summary was it eighty to ninety percent of the time is spent in the front end So it's really important how we How we create our problem And he called us the performance golden rule. So It is not that eighty to ninety percent of the end user's ones that we spent in the back end No, it's in the front right and what does that mean to us with Wikipedia? So have you seen this before you know what it is? Oh Okay, so it's a waterfall graph it describes how the browser is actually loading loading all the assets of a page so What happens first is that it loads the HTML page and then it starts to go through the all different assets that are going to Be loaded on the page or the images or the slide sheets or the outfits, right? So I did a couple of red things on the top. I don't know if you see them I'm trying to explain What is back end of what is front end so the first one you see the first request to the main page? Small one that's actually the back end when we generate or send out the HTML All the other things to the green line the green line in this example It's when we actually put something on the screen for the end user and the blue line there is when we do the Unload event happening So in the old study that Steve Souters did he waited on the unload happen, but for us It's probably better to have to compare with our First paint and for us that is yeah, maybe 15 20 percent spent in the back end and there is plenty there right Yeah This is a image explain how the actual page is Displayed by browser or Wikipedia That's cool. If you see it takes in this example when it has it takes a little bit over 1.2 seconds, but then we almost display 90 percent of how the page So it happens like mine So we know that it's really important with the front and right So what does that mean to us front-end developers? You know We have the power right? We can make things happen. We are stronger than people long stocking When we do things we can make things happen. We can make pictures really really fast for the end user Yeah, we have really really power But when we have great power, you know Yeah Perfect. Thanks. We need to have responsibility Yeah, so we need to understand how the browsers work and I think you already know this but I'm going to repeat it Because it's really really good to you know how it works So we need to understand how a browser render page because if I understand that then we can make sure That we deliver the content in a good way so that the browser will display the content really really fast for the end user Okay So it happens like this You know when you type in the URL in the browser window and you click return The browser will first guess the HTML and when it gets the HTML the browser needs to create a document object model that displaying how What kind of tags we have on the page now it looked like but we actually be able to display something also need the start sheets, right? So in the best case scenario, we got the HTML Download or inline the CSS we can create the CSS object model and we can match them to the render tree And when we hand have the render tree we can put out the layout and paint the The page on the browser, right? It's super simple but You will have one problem That's JavaScript and It works like this, you know in JavaScript you have the ability to change the document of an object model with a document right So if you load the JavaScript synchronously that you usually do You will tell the browser. Okay, you have the ability to change the document object model so until we have loaded all the JavaScripts and Round them we can when that is finished we can create a document of a big model so If we just include the JavaScripts the whole standard way We know that we need to wait until the JavaScript is loaded until we can create a dome and we cannot display anything before We have created a dome and created a CSS object model because then we can create a render tree and then JavaScript can also look into the CSS right you can check what kind of how you What kind of layer to have and and and so on so JavaScript is waiting on the CSS that's the old thing that you know I've got to mention it, but I think you know that already the old Weisler rules that Steve Souders created it's a Bunch of rules that tells how what kind of rules we need to follow to make a page load really fast and In that these rules was that One of the rules is that you need to load JavaScript at the bottom of the page That's because you want to have that CSS load as fast as possible To generate the CSS and then you can execute the JavaScript instead of loading the JavaScript on top You know that the browser will need to wait to execute the JavaScript until the CSS is loaded Am I right Ori? Okay, so but this there's a trick, you know If you tell the browser to load the JavaScript asynchronous asynchronously you will You will tell the browser that I will not change the document object model the JavaScript. So it's It's a rule. So if you If you load the JavaScript synchronously you will not change the document object model And that's what the changes we have done now. Okay so You know the document object model and CSS and one cool thing Just to visualize it, you know how the These are different HTML tags, but you maybe I've seen it before in Firefox So you can see how deep is your page because you know, we have the CSS and you have the HTML and browser need to merge it together and when it merged you your smaller Your document object model is the easier it is for the browser to actually merge the page so if you create a page for For example, if you use you have a page on a mobile browser and a mobile browser has Very little CPU. It's good to have try to have The styles or have the object model as flat as possible So we know that we need the CSS and the HTML To generate the page, right? But then we also have one thing called the lookahead free parser Each browser has it and what it does It's go through the when when you download the HTML the browser has the HTML and before it starts executing anything It will have a thread that will go through each and every line and trying to find the object that The browser knows that will be important to the page and start download it, right? so So for example, each browser knows that if you put JavaScript inside of head it will block So it will try to find this and try to down start down with it as fast as possible Also, if you have important images or Or whatever it will try to find these kind of things as fast as possible and start down on it and each and every browser has its own implementation of the lookahead parser So it could be that Internet Explorer looks for one thing and prioritized one thing Chrome prioritized another thing So so it's really important to try in different browsers because different browsers will download assets in different orders and The lookahead parser will look for objects that are Like the standard way of doing things So for example, if you have an image source tag If you have JavaScript tag or if you have a CSS tag if we look for these kind of objects and download it, right? So I have an example here of a page That looks like this So we have a big big big image there first and then you have a couple of small images and Yeah Twitter and LinkedIn Logos and this is how the browser actually downloads it and I will explain some So you see it will start with a couple of minutes and then it will take all the different Images that are from the logos and then almost at the end. It was actually download the big images that we had first on the page and This happens because of the lookahead parser So it will go through the HTML on this page and try to find things. Okay. What is important for this page? the only thing If I have built this page, I would say okay The main picture at the top is the most important picture, right? So we want to browse it to download as fast as possible So if you check at HTML This is actually the image that they download You see it's not a regular image tag, right? They have a JavaScript that will hook in when the JavaScript is executing and will start downloading the image So this is like a big image from So we have built in this case We have built something That breaks the lookahead parser because the lookahead parser don't know that this is actually an image that we can download because it's not Not a regular image source tag, right? So instead needs to it would start download all the images that are real image tags so so for example You see that The logos here down below almost at the end of the page or downloaded much faster than The big Hero image right and that's because these images are regular image tags So it will be found by the lookahead parser and the other two images there on top on yep, so we can be really nice to the browsers to to To tell them you standard HTML to make it easier for lookahead parser download things and bring the parser And then we have one third thing that is really important and that's with the performance you is for mobile browsers We have proxy browsers and there's two kind of proxy browsers, right? So we have the best practice proxy So that's really really easy. So we have you know, we have there a couple of rules that will make the web page really fast We need to and compression content. We can create And We can combine images, etc. So in the mobile world We have these kind of proxies that do all the kind of best practice rule so when you surf on your mobile you will access the URL and the the proxy browser where the proxy will collect the data from the server and Do all the best practice rules and send it back to the end user so that the mobile browser is is Have less data to take care of and it's it's can generate the page faster, right? and from a Performance in your perspective that's quite quite hard because we don't know exactly what they will do But we will talk about more more about that later So I had the best practice product proxy and then we have the distributed remote browser that's really really hard to To Understand or to measure the thing is The first example then we send HTML the JavaScript and the style sheets to the browser But we fix it a little to make it faster in the distributed browser world We actually execute all the thing on the server side and then have our own protocol and send over Whatever data we want to the browser So for example, if you are in a country where you have only 2g connection And you have an old phone could be better that you have our own protocol where we send only the data that we show The screen and that's really hard for us to actually see what is happening and understand if it's possible Because that is happening all on the browser side. Yeah Okay, so we know Now that it's really important to to understand how the browser is working, right? So and we have a couple of best practice rules today How we actually should do to to deliver the content as fast as possible to their user So how do we make the pages super fast and One thing that everyone talks about today is about the fold so You know a lot of pages are really really long right and you deliver all the content to the browser and the browser starts to render it But what's important to the end user is the thing that you actually see on the screen, right? They're above the fold so in best case scenario. We should try to aim to give the CSS and the HTML and the images that we need to start to render the The content above the fold right so if you have a way of prioritizing it, we should start with that first So what people do is that they inline the CSS and that's good for mobile phones For example when every request costs on something extra and then they Asynchronously load the rest of that such is later Okay We know how the browser will create the page right and we know that we also want to measure and keep track of a page And how are we do that so One thing that I really like is performance regression test and that is to jack in something in your continuous integration to make sure that you keep track of the performance over time and Have you heard about the story or the fairy tale about the emperors new clothes Anyone I can tell it so there was a fancy emperor in the old old days That really like clothes and he wanted to look really really good right and there were people that's trying to They might want to outsmart him and said okay We have really really really fine clothes and it's super super expensive and the thing with the clothes is that if you buy them Only people that are really smart will see them right so stupid people will not see the clothes They will think you are naked right So that's the emperor And of course All the people in the country wanted to be smart right you don't want to send out and be stupid So they said oh Emperor you have so fine clothes. It's really really great, right? But one day there was a kid that actually Saw the emperor and said oh damper has no clothes, right? And that's our web performance tool that we have in a continuous integration We need to have that to tell us when Things are going bad and preferably if we can do it before we do a release But at least so we can keep track of things when we do commits and so on and it could be like we can do it Depending on the system we have it will come once an hour once a day or something like that. It depends So there are three ways of keeping track of performance or like the best practice way of doing today The first one is to do it in a continuous integration, right? The second one is that we do today. That's really cool that we collect data from the users Using from the user measurement so in the browsers from the users we Become back data how fast the page or our servers The thing is it's really good for us to do that to keep track of things over time and that's perfect But it's hard or at least I think it's hard to actually pinpoint real problems Because we have it we can see trends and see if you are going faster or going slower. That's really good But all the different users has different latency and hardware and connection types It's hard to actually say what's wrong, but we can see trends over time. So that's good But to be able to more pinpoint what it's wrong and what we should change We can do something called synthetic testing And that is actually running a browser in a controlled environment and testing Performance so we test one page or many pages and It's good to actually test with different browsers because As I said before different browsers has different implementation So we don't know what if our html and our JavaScript and our CSS will be fast in this browser So there's an example from a site that actually was used in Google ad service. You see there on line 7700 26 they are loading the JavaScript all following the Weisler rules putting the JavaScript synchronously late, right? But in some browsers, I don't know which browser You see that actually the second request that the browser do when they load the page is actually collecting the Google ad server JavaScript, so Each and every browser will prioritize in their own way what they want to load, right? so it's important to test with different browsers to know how our page are doing in different browsers and The next thing is It's good to test a couple of pages from our most important pages because it can be hard to find things Or keep track of many many pages, but it's also good to kind of trying to crawl page and try to find by pages that ordinary users had edited and and added data to because I Don't know which site but one site had a picture of a Saucer with 14 megabytes. That's a content editor has uploaded So it's important and the only way to find that Was that doing actually testing in production because the content management content manager could only add content in production And so that's why we need to test things in production find things if we have bad content so We know We take the browser and we parse the HTML and the JavaScript and CSS And we want to test before we release preferably and we want to test the data or the page in production But what kind of metrics do we want to test right? Because we want to know If the page feel fast and that's really the hard right, but that's the thing that is really important because if the user Feel that the page is fast and it is fast so What we want to do is we want to measure about the full content when is the content that are Visible to the end user in the browser in the browser window finished So the end user can start reading it So we need to find a way of measuring it and the browsers today have a couple of different APIs that we can use So we have the navigation timing API that we use today and here you can see what kind of browsers that actually support it The navigation timing API tells us things like okay now the JavaScripts hold the JavaScript for the page is parsed And the CSS or big model is finished But it's from the whole page It doesn't give us any information about the above the full content It's still quite good because you see a lot of browser support it and we can collect data and we can see things over time and Then we have the user taming timing API That's Another API that we can use that we actually can create our own metrics. So for example we can We can add the timing on each and every page when something is happening. So for example when our Our first image has loaded because nothing else supports it And we can make it we can add the JavaScript actually collect the data and let the browser report it You see and that's good because then we can kind of wave Think of things that are important to the end user. Maybe our logo or some images or something like that But still you see not every supported browser supports it's not Safari And then we have the resource timing API and the source timing API is telling us things like when are Each and every source on a page loaded right so we can find out when the JavaScript is loaded different JavaScripts different Style sheets and different things and that's a good because then we have the whole picture of when the page is loaded But still the browser cannot give us the information of when is actually actual the browser windows Finished above the full content So we have a couple of different things in the browsers that are really good that we can use to collect timings But we don't have the really really good stuff that we need right because we want to measure when the things that the people see are So and then we have the speed index and that's a Thing that was created by Pat Menon for a web page test. That's a tool that can measure things and The speed index Will Will measure when a page the above the full content is actually loaded So you will get the number that says say in millisecond When the above the full content is loaded and the way they do that is that they create a video of the Page on the page load and then analyze it when it's finished and when it starts to load it And what's really cool about it is that You've had two different pages that are finished at the same time if a page actually are Delivering content before the other page. So you see things much Faster than the other page. You will have a lower speed index. So it's also good that you can see things You will get a better number if you deliver content really really fast depending on user And you have probably seen this before yeah So what they do they analyze a video of the page when it's loaded and then they can give us a number What's good about it is that we have a tool that we can get that number The bad about it is that it's only in one tool, right? So we cannot get it from our real users and It's odd combined with other things, but at least we have a tool that we can't find of measure things Okay, but Metrics is not the only thing right so we have the numbers, but do the numbers really tell a real story No, it depends on the context of the user, right, you know this guy It's a Swedish Prince Prince Daniel So you see here. He's got his fighting face on. He's going to play basketball, right? Normally looks like this really fine glad happy people But he's got his fighting face on and depending on the context, right? so for end user if I Serve a couple of pages I will compare the page. I'm on right now with other pages. So if I'm really and fast I Must be faster than or at least the same Speed as the couple of other pages that I am used. I've been using the last couple of minutes or something like that, right? So it depends on what kind of context the end user is and in this example It's Daniel. It's actually playing basketball with a kid, but it still has his fighting face on and that's quite cool Okay So I'm actually at the summary, right if someone has questions we can take it or you can take it after So there's three really important things that we need to remember, right? This is how the page are created and it's painted on the screen. So and I think you already know that, right? So you the HTML need to be need to create a document object model, right? The CSS need to be CSS object model and then we parse it together the render tree and then the browser can stop So we need to minimize the time until we can start creating the render tree and create a layout and create a page and then We have the lookahead parser, right? So something in the browser We start to look for things and try to download as fast as possible and We need to make sure that we do things in a good way so the lookahead parser can find them and the last thing is There is no magic metric we can use, right? We have a lot of different metrics in the Browser today. We had a navigation timing API and that it's good, but it's not perfect So we need to combine the metrics we have use tools and use Their metrics in the browser then we can find that at least a quite good way to measure things Yep, so do we have any questions? Crystal clear, right? Hi, I have a couple of questions It used to be where There were companies that would you would pay them and they would sort of monitor the performance of your site from sort of all over the world Do you think this? Are you am I guess a real user monitoring has that kind of replaced that or is there still a role for? You know paying some company to tell you how you're doing in Istanbul and how you're doing in So yeah, so the companies that I have worked with have actually used like all the different tools to To do that because it's a different way The real user measurement is good because then you collect data from the real users, right? But collecting data from different points in the world It's good in a way because then you can keep track of is your content as the end provider is actually work, right? So most of the companies or at least the largest one I've worked with are using these kind of systems to make sure that the content the Syrian providers that they use really Deliver content in different places, right? So they use it in that way So they use both yeah, yeah, I mean because I guess the foundation has an advantage that we can sort of reliably assume We have users all over the world. We don't have some I'm sure get tons of data, but Do you think there's still a role for I mean those services so I think That kind of service is good to just keep track of things or how things are going but to be able to understand If we're if we will be how we can be better and how we can increase the performance of a web page We need to put it on a lower level because these kind of tools will not help us So it's good to collect a real user measurement So we can keep track of things over time and keep the trends as if we're going faster or going slower But to be able to actually do things better We need to have tools on our level on now Development Because these kind of like the keynote may version name names, but They are good, but they will not help us I think it's better to keep keep things at the developer level to see how Thanks, and my other question. Well, it's more a kind of thing. I've noticed Do you think there's a risk if you just focus on the time to paint above the fold I've noticed on my phone. There are a lot of sites where I'll see it But I can't actually do anything I'll be clicking buttons and nothing will happen and even like you know zoom gestures won't work This is kind of dead zone for like sometimes a long time so I wonder if people are so focused on on Presenting that above the fold and then the interactions kind of completely screwed up for like 20 seconds Yeah, and that's what's important for us I think we need to find the metrics that we think is really important on our pages, right? So we need to find okay. Okay, maybe the About the full content is important But we need we need to find the measurement that are important to us and to our users. So it's like It could be that people are focusing like on the wrong thing But for us, we need to make sure that what do we think is the right thing for our our pages and make sure that we can Measure that because it's really important to measure things that are really valuable to us like Call to action or something like that. So and yeah Thanks anything else. All right. Thank you so much Peter. Thank you appreciate it. Thank you


The purpose of this press conference is to officially announce the opening of nominations for the election of officers to the National Youth Council's executive for the next two years. The NYC's executive is made up of seven positions. We have a president, a first vice president, a second vice president, a treasurer, a public relations officer, a general secretary and an assistant general secretary. As a committee recently established to lead the entire process for elections, we seek generally to improve the overall process of elections for the organization itself. We want to present a truly nationwide opportunity for young people to participate in the affairs of its main representation organization. Amid calls for revamping the organization's structure, its constitution and its operations, we recognize that the quality of leadership and the quality of the organization is key to its proper function. The role of the election committee therefore, it shall be to ensure a fair, a transparent and a participatory, but very highly professional approach to electing the next crop of leaders for the organization. The process is being guided by our electoral regulations in conjunction with the NYC's constitution. And going forward this morning, we have members from that elections committee who will present certain components of the regulations to you, the public and to young persons listening, so that we are very clear as to what the procedure is for nominations and how you can get involved if you are interested in joining the National Youth Council or serving on the executive. The board is comprised of five persons, namely a representative of the general council membership of the NYC, a representative of the electoral department, a representative of the department of youth development and sports, a former NYC president or stalwart and a young attorney-at-law. Today we have three members of the committee present, Ms. Sarah Lee Williams, who is representing the department of youth development and sports, as well as Mr. Zachary Hippolyte, to my right, representing the general council membership itself and myself as an immediate past president. Also, we have Ms. Danthea Justin, who is the current general secretary of the organization and Ms. Kim Kyle, also on the executive, but they are also representing the general assembly's planning committee going forward. So I will turn over now to Mr. Zachary Hippolyte who will go over the nomination procedures for the organization. Good day, St. Lucia. In terms of the nomination process and procedure, well, first of all, you must complete a nomination form, and this form must be completed by the organizations. It's a basic form. It speaks to that of the name of the nominated person, the full name of the nominee, date of birth, et cetera. Now, in terms of accepting the nomination, I will be reading from the NYC's electoral regulations. When the nominee signs this document, the nominee confirms that he or she accepts this nomination and agrees to the following. The NYC reserves the right to withdraw my nomination with or without in cases where it is discovered I do not have the claim qualification experience. I have not obtained, for whatever reason, any appropriate nomination requirements. If the nomination is subject to background checks, the understanding that the nominee must disclose details of any criminal records, including convictions, cautions, reprimands, and final warning, and any other information that may have a bearing on their suitability for the position. The nominee understands that producing false or misleading information will disqualify them for the nomination process, or if elected, will render them liable to immediate dismissal. The nominee acts in contravention to the NYC election regulations and NYC constitution. The nominee understands that no person on the executive shall be under the age of 18 years or over 35 years during the term. The nominee understands that if elected, they will be required to participate in an official installation ceremony when oath will be administered. The nominee understands that if the nomination is approved, they will have to be physically present at the NYC general assembly. The nominee declares that the information given may be used by the NYC for administration or public relation purposes under the relevant data protection laws. I'm now going to speak to that of the verification requirements. The nominee for any position on the NYC executive must be one, a registered member of a youth organization registered under a district youth and sports council in accordance with the NYC constitution article three, membership, or two, a member of a recognized youth-led organization registered with the Sinusha National Youth Council or the Ministry of Youth Development and Sports, and three, must be between the age of 18 and 35.  Membership organizations may include sports, cultural, religious, and community groups, as well as student councils, uniform groups, and the youth section of political parties. For an organization to qualify for membership, it must have a minimum of 10 members, and the majority of its members must be between the ages of 12 and 30 years, and it must be democratic, voluntary, and self-governing. The nominee is responsible for ensuring that all documents and information required to determine that the nomination have met the conditions set out in the electoral regulations be submitted by the stipulated deadline. Incomplete or late nominations will be rejected. Upon size factory completion of all verification checks, and I really have to speak to that part, especially verification checks, I could tell you guys that this is a very serious process. We, the electoral committee, I would say that we have improved or expanded on the verification checks. So there will be a new procedure when it comes to that. So we want you the nominees and the members to be on top of the game. We're a little tired of individuals who just present themselves for nominations to be on the executive, and then after two years you hear nothing of them. This has to stop. The work of youth is very important in this country. So we have to ensure that the right persons are in the right places. So incomplete or late nominations will be rejected, like I said, and nomination for NYC will take effect on the date the nominee is notified for the candidacy. Now a checklist. Please provide copies of the following documents where applicable. Please do not send original copies. I repeat, do not send original copies. So therefore, you should submit a completed nomination form, a short manifesto slash statement of intent, a passport size photo, sorry, of the nominee, any relevant supporting documents. Please submit nominations via email to nominations.nycslu.gmail.com. I repeat that again, nominations.nycslu.gmail.com. All applications must be addressed to the returning officer, St. Lucia National Youth Council 2017. Now nomination forms are available for pick up at the Department of Youth and Sports, temporarily located food floor of the Sir James Stanislaus building, and that's the same floor with that of the Ministry of Tourism. They are also available online via the St. Lucia National Youth Council Facebook page. All right. Thank you, Zachary. Well said. So now that we've mentioned the nomination process, Miss Erie Williams will go through the electoral timeline agreed to. So the dates in there are very important. All right. Thank you, Mr. Fodenan. Well, today, January 24th, 2017, we have the formal opening of the nominations. Monday, April 17th, 2017 at 11.59 p.m., we have the closure of the period for submitting nominations. Thursday, April 27th, 2017, the notification and presentation of candidates, which will be at a press conference, and the opening of the campaigning. What this means is that, excuse me, it means by then the electoral committee, we would have shortlisted all the nominations, the persons who have submitted the nominations, and we would have done our verification checks by then. On Saturday, May 6th at 2017, we have the public presidential debates. Friday, May 12th, 2017, the deadline for submission of the delegates list. And Saturday, May 27th, 2017, we have the general assembly and elections, the formal announcement of election results, the oath of office, and the installation ceremony. This takes place, like I said, on Saturday, May 27th, 2017. All right. Thanks, Seri. Now, we ended with the general assembly. The elections will take place at the NYC's general assembly, which some of you may know is overdue, long overdue. And so, we have with us the general secretary of the National Youth Council, Ms. Dianthea Justin, and we have Kim Cahill as well, who will speak to any plans so far or any information so far on the general assembly itself. So, either of you could start off. Well, with the general assembly steering committee we've already met, and we have put some plans in place. So, we have decided to go with the students councils first. So, we're starting to do the councils in the north of this coming Saturday, just to educate them on what general assembly is about, the process, and then participating actively in general assembly. And the following Saturday, we also have the students in the south that we're going to meet with. And the DYSCs, we also plan to visit the district youth and sports councils to engage them, and sometimes do, maybe between the months, do two sets of visits so we can introduce ourselves, the procedure of general assembly, how the election process goes. So, people are informed, and then the second procedure would be to meet again with the group presidents, the organization presidents, club presidents, and the DYSC presidents again, to just regurgitate and go over the assembly process and elections, and then even submitting nominations and being actively participating in that process. So, these are our plans so far. So, effectively we have at least four months before the general assembly, this time giving ample time for persons who are interested to get what is necessary for organizations to prepare themselves. Do you have anything else to say on that, Dan? Well, what I want to say in regards to the whole general assembly of the National Youth Council is that I just want to reassure persons that the electoral committee is working independently. That's one, and we have the executive having the task cut out for them and the general assembly's steering committee have the task cut out for them. So, it's like three persons working on the same project with different roles to execute general assembly. I would like to encourage all young persons within the District Youth and Sports Council, youth organizations to please, if you know you have an interest, if the interest is there, if you're willing to serve, that you have four months, they have four months to think. I don't think you have four months to think, but we give it ample time for you to think about it, for you to go back to your District Youth and Sports Council, find out who is the president of your District Youth and Sports Council, find out who is your youth officer so that they can guide you as to how the process is. You could feel free to contact the email, the electoral committee, at the email address. You can feel free to contact me as the general secretary if you want further information or clarification as to how the process is done. So, it's just me encouraging persons to just be part of the process. We're looking for full participation and inclusion from youth across the board. It may seem that we've heard that the NYC is always something that is up there. It's really not something that's really up there. It's something that is a body that represents all young persons. So, we want to bring that relevance back to young persons that we will need to serve everybody across the board. We have other youth organizations, but the NYC serves a larger population. So, going forward, like I said, we encourage everybody to submit your nominations. The electoral committee will decide at the end of the day who fits it or who don't fit it. But it's up to you to submit your nominations, come forward. If not, just come forward in terms of helping plan the assembly in itself or coordinating or lending a hand as to how you can support. Nice. So, I think that's an important point in terms of inclusion and participation. There is a notion out there that the National Youth Council doesn't truly represent all young people. However, it must be understood that the National Youth Council is not restrictive. And its dormancy or its liveliness is based on the young people at the time. So, if you have a civil society where young persons are civically minded, you could say politically minded or astute, you will find that young people will come out and speak for their rights, they will come out and speak on issues. The National Youth Council was put in place so that young persons can find an avenue to voice their concerns as well as to participate in getting young people engaged. So, it is there for young people. If it is not being utilized, it's because the nation's youth are either asleep or not making use of what's put there for them. So, we are here to ensure that we set things on a correct path. First, by working on the leadership of the organization, because you must have leadership, and then, of course, ensuring that with the partnership of the Ministry of Youth and Sports, that clubs or communities go through the requisite, you could say, modifications that are required to ensure that we have more participation in the future. Because we recognize that the NYC needs to shift and change in order to actually accommodate young people. And what I wish to add to that is, I believe the reason why we don't have that civic mind and that type of attitude that the chairman is speaking about is because of lack of education. You know, I went through the NYC constitution. This is serious business. I really don't understand what has happened in the past couple of years, but this is serious business. I believe the constitution is supposed to be the bible of the students council and the different D.Y.S.E.s. It's supposed to be given to all youth. It's supposed to be discussed. And when that happens, then you realize that when persons put up themselves for nominations, that this is not just some popularity contest where individuals want to, after two years have gone, they could tell an employer, hey, guess what? This is my resume. I was on the NYC. And then there was no advocacy. I'm actually tired of it to be honest with you. But with this new electoral committee, things are going to change. It's a different thing. If you know that you're going to be nominated because you're popular and you think that's it, then you got another thing coming. Because at the end of the day, who suffers is the youth who doesn't have a voice. And that's not going to be tolerated this year. So we'll allow any questions from the floor. I know we have members, as you see, individuals supporting the planning going forward. Some of whom may actually be interested in the executive. However, we'll take questions regarding the process itself. But what I've been hearing, you know, kind of bouncing around a lot is unattached youth.  But how do you include these sets of young persons in the electoral process of the NYC? Well, to answer the question, like you said, unattached youth, I would agree with you that, and here in Seoul, you see, it's not a term that sits well with me either. But what I would like to encourage persons, if they see that they can contribute to the organization itself, I'm saying as an individual who came from the grassroots itself, the unattached, where I was pulled into my community club. And from my community club, I got to my district defense post council. And my district defense post council, I got to the national level. So I would say that I always say that we as young persons, whether we attach or unattach, we're more vulnerable than others, that we have a responsibility to keep up with.  So I would say to that person that you get to know who's your youth and sports officer. You get to know who's the president of your youth and sports council. Because in every district, whether they're dormant or they're active, there is a district youth and sports council and there is a youth officer assigned to the district. So I would encourage that person to go through that channel. That's the channel that worked for me at the time when I was unattached. So for me, that's the best advice I can give you. I don't know if you take it from another angle as to how we can incorporate them. Let me just add, I've been faced with that question before. And there is something that we all often know, the NYC itself has not really been successful at. And that is its subcommittees. And the powers in the constitution to allow the executive to co-opt persons who are not necessarily members of a club or some sort. As long as you have something to offer, first of all, you must have that urge to contribute. And then the NYC itself must recognize, okay, we need the support of young persons, young professionals, or just volunteers. In the past, we had a volunteer crew. So you can come in, not necessarily from a club, but through a subcommittee or offering your services to the organization professionally. Yeah, but it also has to do with the UICs and the president themselves, the executive. You have to sell this. You have to sell this. The youth is not just going to stay there one day and just say, yeah, there's an NYC whatsoever. No, there are so much distractions. You have technology. You have everything that is distracting you for nowadays from volunteerism. You have to clean a better part. You have to sell yourself. You have to walk. We don't walk again. You like to walk. Go out and meet those persons that we want to call and attach and sell it and let them know, hey, this is, we understand your situation, we understand your distractions, but this is what we can do for you. This is what we can do as a whole. So the youth has to do that. Yes, those who are there who are not registered and stuff have to, yeah, they have to do their part, but we in the chair, sitting in the chair, in those comfortable chairs tomorrow and having the cocktails and the free food, you got to walk and meet those persons and sell yourselves. Good morning. Good morning. I would like to ask the panel, was the $30,000 subvention sufficient to run NYC programs? Well, actually it's not, it's not, it's not even 30, but the subvention year we received is just, it just covers NYC operational course. And that was during team tenure and that was during Jennifer's senior. The subvention really hasn't changed. What we have done in the past is to seek funding from outside agencies. So that's it for us. It's never sufficient, especially when you don't meet young persons, and we're dealing with volunteerism and everybody wants to get paid nowadays. So it's very difficult and it's very challenging and it will always be challenging. Moving forward, I understand there is a slight decision that needs to be made in relation to camp, which normally occurs the day before elections. Is there a final decision on that? In regards to your question, when I was brought into NYC, I started at a grassroots level as well and then I came in. Team pulled me in because team saw how active I was with my group and we did go to camp and this is how we got to know each other. This is how some unattached persons even got into NYC and the stimulation of knowing each other came from camp. And we started, it usually starts, well General Assembly is what we call camp. So it is the election process that is called camp. So we usually start the Friday night and go into Sunday afternoon and within that time nominees get to campaign, they get to meet the groups, they get to meet the other younger persons, student councils, representatives and familiarize themselves and actually sell themselves to it and say what can I bring to youth advocacy and what can I bring to at a national level for the National Youth Council of St. Lucia. So going to camp for me, I always see it as a plus and I see the benefits of us bringing in other young people and actually showing them the ropes, teaching them and letting them understand how far NYC is and what the process is about and how important it is that youth are represented on a national level. So this is something that we are still in between with but I am looking towards having the camp for the plus side of it. I know it's expensive and this is why we're going to reach out to a network for persons to try to assist us with finance and because financing a camp is a lot and this is where we bring in the volunteers to assist us, to look over the younger ones and to assist. This is where I think family builds with youth at camp so we're looking forward to it but as I say finances is something that needs to be taken into consideration and if we are able to pull the finances through, we're headed to General Assembly Camp. You mentioned again in contact with the council and such likes, you mentioned the Facebook page and you also mentioned email so I was just wondering are there any other routes that other people might be able to take to get into contact here that you can actually mention right now? We're starting well with the General Assembly Committee, we're thinking of doing our own Instagram page and the Instagram page is going to be giving you updates as well as a Facebook page but Instagram will be able to do our pictures when we meet with student councils, when we meet with district youth and sports councils, clubs and try to hype it up and make people understand that this is a fun event and this is an event that we need to participate in so we will put out our Instagram information on the National Youth Council page as well so all social media will be able to have those avenues to get to us and contact us and know what is actually happening and participate as well. I'll just wrap up again as early mentioned today is the official opening for nominations so you could start going around finding out who you should come into contact with get your two nominees because every nomination must be substantiated by two references. Go around, you have enough time, ask questions, go through the constitution, you know get to know persons. The deadline for nominations is April the 17th all right and April is Youth Month as well so we know that the jazz festival and different things may be taking place during that time however we want young persons to bear in mind the reason we are starting this early is to be fair and transparent so you have ample time to get involved and we as a committee we will be able to do what's necessary to make it more inclusive so we may decide to make some visits to explain the process to visit a few organizations do what we have to on our part to make sure it's inclusive. Also I want to also give the assurance that the National Youth Council is a highly respected entity in the Caribbean and internationally throughout the Commonwealth. A number of National Youth Councils have taken an example from us from our constitution to establish their own. We now have the Caribbean original youth council which represents NYC's in the Caribbean as well as on the Commonwealth which is made up of 53 states so there is the opportunity to actually not just represent young people in your country but the entire world. We can't have every young person voicing young people's concerns but they are young persons who can make themselves available to go out there and you know speak on behalf of youth in terms of youth. So thank you for viewing we look forward to receiving nominations and we will be back here in April to announce the shortlist of candidates and to announce the opening of campaigning for candidates. Thank you very much.


So, we continue with more talks by our doctoral students, the ESRs, the next one is Bowen Fan from ETH Zurich. I'm his advisor and Bowen will talk about his work on predicting recovery from multiple organ dysfunction in pediatric sepsis patients. Bowen, the floor is yours. Thanks, thanks a lot for the introduction and as cousin said, my name is Bowen Fan, I'm a ESR2 and from the Department of Biostation Science and Engineering from ETH Zurich. I started in the first March of 2020 and this work is one of our recent work that has been published in ISMB 2020 this year. Okay, so first of all, I would like to say thank you for all these collaborators as this project is a joint project between ETH Zurich and also some clinical institute that's in charge of, oh no, sorry. It's a university hospital offer and and a robot at Zurich Children's Hospital of Chicago and also University Children's Hospital of Zurich and it's not possible to get this work done without their full support. So I would like to say thank you here. So there are two main focuses of our project. The first one is pediatric sepsis and I would like to give you a proper definition of what a sepsis is. And sepsis is a life-threatening organ dysfunction caused by dysregulated host response to infection. And this sepsis can progress rapidly that leads to severe organ damage and death. And also on the right hand side, you can see a fact sheet of sepsis, which is from the world sepsis day event. And from fact sheet, there's 47 to 50 million cases per year and at least 11 million deaths per year. And in one in five deaths worldwide is associated with sepsis. And also sepsis is number one cause of death in the hospital and no one cause of hospital real-dimension and also number one cause of the health care. And up to 50% of the sepsis survivors suffer from long-term physical or psychological effects. And also what's even worse is that sepsis disproportionately affects children as 40% of the sepsis cases are children under five years old. So that's why pediatric sepsis definitely works our additional attention. And the second focus I would like to say is the multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, short as MOTS. And MOTS is defined as two or more concurrent organisms than dysfunctions. And MOTS is highly likely to be developed from sepsis in pediatric patients. And comparing to regular sepsis cases, MOTS has even increasing mobility and mortality. And here in this study we use the organ dysfunction definition from the International Pediatric Sepsis Consensus Conference. And this definition includes six different major organisms, respiratory, cardiovascular, central nervous, renal, haptic and haptological systems. And for those patients who accept MOTS at the sepsis onset, it's much less likely for them to recover to a rather mild state like zero or single organ dysfunction. So even those for treatment and even for those who survive the MOTS, they may still suffer from lifelong consequences to patients to themselves and also their families. So here in this study for those patients who were already in MOTS where the cryo sepsis is important to investigate their chance to recover to a better state like zero or single organ dysfunction. And here this is also the main motivation behind our study that we do an early prediction of the recovery from MOTS in this pediatric patients with sepsis. And hopefully with this work we could provide the clinicians the opportunity to take extra care and also enable tummy interventions. And so here we imply so much learning models for this prediction. And although there are already many studies that have focused on the early recognition of sepsis, but this prediction of the MOTS recovery in sepsis patient has never been attempted with machine learning. And also the current standard of care in clinic practice is still rule based. So with this effort, with this work, we hopefully develop something framework which could allow for personalized prognostics for those patients with better patients with sepsis. So this work is mainly developed on the Swiss pediatric study, short as SPSS. And this SPSS is a retrospective, national and multi-center course study, including children up to 17 years old with blood culture-proven bacterial infection and involves 10 major pediatric hospitals in Switzerland. And this SPSS database includes electronic health records at a daily level, which keep track of the most of normal measurements within every 24 hours. And this record presents up to six days of blood culture sampling, or we get the day of sepsis, the day of the sepsis onset. And a recent systematic review shows that for the early prediction of sepsis, more than 85% of the study only validated their models on one single database using a cross-validation scheme. And even though their models performed quite well in their own settings, the performance was never really verified in the other database. And also for this clinical research, external validation is extremely important for assessing the model's generalizability. So that's why we managed to assess to another pediatric patient, sepsis patient database from NN Robo-Attributed Children's Hospital of Chicago, short as LCHC here. That's for the purpose of external validation. So let's have a proper definition of this model's recovery. So we formulate this as a binary classification task that on the first day, we predict the patient using the data from the first day of sepsis onset, with a time horizon of seven days. Here I show a few examples of the model's recovery. And day zero here indicates the day of sepsis onset, and we have the data until day six. So that's one week, and we do the prediction on day six. And here the blue arrow indicates the mod state, and red arrow indicates mod three state. So the first one is a recovery example that the patient was in the mod, was in mods. And after day three, he or she got better and eventually on day six, he or she was mod three. And the second one, as a non-recovery example, that's the patient started with mods and got better after day two, but eventually turned into mods again. And the third one was excluded because the mod, even the patient started with mods three. So that's not very, very considerate in the study. And also one thing to note is that if the patient deceased before day six, we still, before day six, we still consider the patient is a non-recovery. So after removing those invalid samples for the SPSS data set, we have a non-recovery samples of 138 and recovery samples of 118. This translates to a positive class prevalence of 46.1%. And for the other external validation set, we have a non-recovery sample of 210 and recovery sample of 181. This has a very similar positive class prevalence. And also the core size is more or less similar in the same order of magnitude. And with the help of the clinicians, we also collected some relevant variables for this prediction task that includes vital science laboratory test results, clinical scores, chronic disorder information, and also demographics. There's 44 of them in total. And the data are only collected on the first day of SPSS set without the risk of future information leakage. And here's the results here. For the internal validation that we implemented and compared several machine learning models, including logistic regression, vector machine, random forest, multilayer perceptron, and lab rating boosting machine. And also we implemented a clinical baseline model that using the decision tree, which is the second pediatric logistic organ dysfunction score, which this score has been verified to be a very good indicator of mortality and also organ dysfunction in large pediatric patient database. So we also adopted a nested cross-validation scheme that was split the data into training validation and test that. And we repeat this for 10 independent rounds. And with the model development and hyperparameter tuning was done on the training and validation set. And we only report the performance on test only. And on the right hand side, you can see the internal validation results. Here we use two metrics, area on the rock curve and area on the precision curve. So all five models, the five main machine learning models performs comparably well and all of them up from the clinical baseline model by a large margin. And what the winner of this five models, actually the random forest model with a rock of 79.1% a rock of 73.6%. That's why we chose the random forest model as our main model and for the later external validation. And also the random forest model is highly nonlinear model and it's tend to be overfit and not doesn't really generalize very well. So it's particularly important to do external validation for this random forest model here. Then we do this external validation actually for the complainers of the study we did this validation in both centers and also testing on the other. So here you see two plots. And the red curves with the uncertain events are the internal validation results for the 10, 10 for the cross validation. And the blue curves are the external validation results. That means the model was trained on one center and test on the other. So basically we can see that the generalization of this random forest model is quite good. It's successful in both directions with this area on the rock curve over 75% for all the cases and also the area on the precision curve is over 70% with the positive class prevalence of around 46%. And also if we look at the high record region, where is the of more community interest that most of the event can be captured. For example, if you look at recall at 80%, that means four out of five recovery events can be corrected predicted. And we still have a precision score around 60%. That means for every five predictions to automate. Three of them are correct. So we see this random forest model here have both high prediction performance and also high generalize ability. In terms of this, in terms of this most recovery prediction task. Thanks. And later we also analysis whether the random forest model can predict the most recovery earlier than one week, like one, one to five days in advance. So here we show the results of the relative AEPRC area on the precision record curve. For different time points, the relative AEPRC is the absolute AEPRC normalized by the positive class prevalence on each date. Using this metric, we could have a rather fair comparison of different time points. So we developed a random forest model on the SPS data set and evaluated them on both. So you see the record for the SPS data set, the performance keep going down as we increasing the time horizon. And for these LCHC data sets external validation, we see the performance goes up a bit in the first two days and then drops from the day three onwards. And on day six, both external validation and internal validation are achieved very similar performance. And also this is something where it will be expected as for a shorter horizon, we should have a better performance. And also for the temporal limitation of data sets, we could only do the prediction for the first week. But for like longer horizon, like two or three weeks, we could probably just expect a bit lower performance here. And but MOTS here, MOTS here in the pediatric substance patients, their MOTS is highly dynamic. This is that usually with the progression or the recovery scene within very few of the first few days of the admission. So and also the persistence of MOTS for the whole week is already a better sign that it's highly associated with high modality and mobility. And also we want to have a model that has both high prediction performance and also high generalizability. So that's why we chose day six as our main focus. And also another thing we desire is the high interpretability of the model. So that's why we chose to use this shape value to explain the risk factors discovered by this random force model here. I already lost count how many times you have seen this. So hopefully you'll not get too tired of that. So anyway, so on the left-hand side, you see a B1 plot showing the top 10 features here. And on the right-hand side, you see the full names of these two top 10 features and the full names of them. And how do you interpret this B1 plot that basically each dot represents each patient. And also the red dot indicates a higher value of the feature and blue dot indicated lower value of the feature. And the closer of the dot to the right-hand side of the X axis, that means the feature is driving the model to give you a positive prediction. And the closer to the left-hand side, that means the feature is driving the model to give you an accurate prediction. So for example, if we look at the top one, the lowest oxygen saturation level. That means that here, there's a lot of red dots here. That means that the patients with high oxygen saturation level, the model tends to assign them high chance for the recovery. Well, for the second one, the lactate. And we see that the red dots are located on the left-hand side on the X axis. And usually that means heightened lactate values are already indicating this organ damage going on. So that's why the model thinks these patients are not going to recover from us. And for this plot, what we found interesting is that we found two organisms. The cardiovascular and respiratory systems are critical for this small recovery prediction. Because we find most of these top 10 features are more or less associated with these two organisms. So in clinical practice, we could probably pay more attention to the model's patients with these two types of organ dysfunction, rather than treating them equally compared to patients with other types of organ dysfunctions. So finally, I would like to summarize my presentation here in this study. We developed a machine learning framework for predicting most recovery in pediatric substance patients for one week in advance. And we conduct a comprehensive experiment to show that the proposed model can not only just predict most recovery with high accuracy, but also can be transferable across different clinical sites to those unseen patient data, even in the intercontinental setup. And also the prediction of the model is interpretable from a clinical point of view. So this means the model we developed here could provide more insights to the clinicians, or maybe they are more understandable for them. And also we believe that our model has certain clinical utilities that it could probably assist clinicians for better patient assessment and triage on day zero at the day of sepsis onset. And now we are doing something else using the same data set that we include in the genomics and proteomics profiles of this patient that we try to discover novel clinical phenotypes of pediatric sepsis. And by doing a characterization of the patient's subgroups, hopefully with this effort we could develop something for better personalized treatment. And that's all for my presentation. If you want to have further information of this paper, you can scan the QR code here. Thanks a lot. I'm ready to take questions. Thank you, Bowen. Other questions for Bowen. Tobias. Yeah, thanks, Bowen, for the great talk. One question regarding the clinical interpretability that you mentioned in the end. So how would this look like? Is that these graphs that you show, or is there more behind it? So how would the clinician interpret the results? I think this will probably help to support their decisions. Like patient with, for example, low oxygen saturation or high lactate value. They should pay more attention to that. But it's probably if you have a certain patient, right? It's most probably the case that there will be certain points which will be on the blue, others on the red, right? So otherwise it would be a clear decision. So if I get it, if I see a patient and it's always in the red, then it's clear and I can see also as a clinician how the system comes to it. Yeah, we also actually provide some samples for like how model, how the model like make the prediction for each individual samples. I'm not here here. It's in the paper already. So it's like a survival score for each individual patient. There will be much easier interpretable, I think, not in the cover level, but individual level. Did you have many more features than you said these are the top 10 features? Yeah, we have 44 features in total. Okay. And did you also like quantify like how much each feature kind of contributes to the solution? Did you say like with these 10 features I capture pretty much I don't know 99% or? Oh, yeah, we actually, I think we didn't really quantify like how much exactly this top 10 contributed a model prediction. I think that's a good point. We could probably include this in future work. But you said it's the first two, right? That have the only talk about this first two here to just to showcase like how this model. I take this features into account when they make making prediction. Overall, if you look at the resulting performance of the system, right? I don't already show that basically doesn't matter which machine learning method you use, but it's always better than the clinical status, right? But do you think there's a way to push the performance much further because there was not, at least not from the first view, there was not so significant differences between the individual methods, right? Yeah, that's right. And performance is, well, it's below 0.8, right? So it's not super reliable. Do you think there's a way to push it further? I think, yeah, of course, for machine learning models, the primary way of what we're always ready to have more data. Since for this package, package, except his patients, we only have like cover size of less than 300, which is a pretty little for this data driven approaches. Yeah, probably if possible, it could increase more data, but it could be very difficult. Or we do a more exhaustive research, but could be also discolors on overfitting issues. Okay, thanks a lot. Leslie. Thank you for your talk. I have a question on slide 11. Could you explain again the, so you trained on the SPSS and could you explain again why the Chicago data for the relative EU PRC first increases and then decreases? Yeah. Or what's the interpretation of that? It's a little bit difficult to interpret this. Or it's kind of a mystery of why that phenomenon happens. Yeah, we didn't really try to interpret this at the beginning. So, because it's external validation and we could already access to the data. We just let past the model and let it run. So, is anyone could give a proper guess of why this happening. It's an interesting artifact then. Okay, thank you. Thanks. I have one more question. So, we always took for granted in this project that the SPSS had been confirmed as a bacterial infection. Is this actually known at the point of time in which we would make our prediction. There's an inclusion criterion for this data set. Where it's for me not totally clear that this is like given or determined is the right word that this is determined at the time at which we make this prediction. So, is this the bacteria infection we know at which time point this is typically confirmed is maybe three days into the stay or something. Yeah, that's the things that for this data sets. It's actually that we use the blood culture proven proven bacteria infection that we do the blood culturally sampling and we once we found the bacteria we make this as a day. Exactly. And that's the inclusion criterion of this. And that accepts the study. But I think an open point is when exactly is this determined is this maybe determined after we make our prediction because then there would be another like latent set of patients on which we could also make our predictions. But which do not fulfill this inclusion criteria. I think that would be an extremely interesting external validation question to test the model on patients who are at risk for developing sepsis, for example, and see whether your model will predict them to recover, basically, because they're recovery likelihood will be higher, I guess, because it's not uncertain yet, whether they have sepsis or not. So other data sets like that available. This is the question. Maybe I can answer. So there's now a national data stream for pediatric research in Switzerland, in fact, and headed by one of our collaborators on the paper so they are going to collect data that's like that like an intensive care data sets for for children, pediatric patients. And I think you could do this. I mean, what, what this data set here represents is a very clean data set in the sense that that the sepsis has really been confirmed to be connected to a bacterial infection here on these data sets. It's not not necessarily the case for all things for all patients that are labeled as septic in the in a database. And then then exactly it's a question how how much does this in generalize if you train on a high quality expenses to obtain labels. I was just wondering if this Swiss pediatric sepsis data set is public. So far it's not for some private issues. And also the externalization is also not accessible to public. Not to us. Maybe just an additional comment what you said is extremely important because we think about the translational perspective of your modeling efforts. These models tend to be applied as they as we go to more poorly defined samples. And therefore I think it's crucial important to establish this right away, because to determine what the operational window of these models is. So that came to my mind is have you looked into decision curve analysis to establish the value of your model. So basically doing that benefit analysis. How much do a clinician gain or patient gain from a certain prediction. So by taking in the costs and the opportunities basically of a prediction. For this one is actually a retrospective study. So it's a bit difficult to evaluate to really compare against like a clinical decision decisions. So hopefully we can do some prospective study like really put this into clinical practice. And we see really compare to like the true decision make by the clinicians as this clinical baseline still sounds in a proxy to us. Hey, thanks a lot for any was a great presentation. I was just wondering because you were talking about how you had to basically hand in the model and get the predictions back and you didn't have access to the data and doing this external validation. Could it be. Could this be a nice use case for something like federated learning or storm learning that we had presented in the network like early on. Like maybe using something like that you can collect data from multiple sites and. Yeah, I think it is a very good point. In this case, it was extremely difficult for us to like to communicate anything for the model development. Also evaluation, we could like do this anonymously using the federal learning. I think they'll be very useful and also for the other collaborations in medical field. Thanks. Thank you a lot. If I may add, this project was interesting in the sense that for us, this was the really the first example of what you could call federated learning. So we sent the models to us and they ran the model there so so in all our other projects, we negotiate data access at some point we get several data sets and then we harmonize them and then we run it this this was really decentralized so we only sent the code we never got the data in this project. Good. So it's time for more questions. That's one minute. Who was first. I'll start in the back. Do you know if there is any stratification in yours in your sample, especially regarding the kind of bacterial strain that causes this. I didn't really get it. Do you know if there is maybe an effect like like a strain specific effect. In terms of like the features that you can get from your patient that could have an impact on the performance of your model in the end. Help you to interpret. So whether we could stratify for the infection that is present. I also thought about this actually about due to the very limited course size. We didn't do this eventually for the subgroup analysis or any stratification patient based on whatever the satisfaction or the pathogens. So, no, no, we didn't use those as feature because this may not be available for this external relations that I'm coordinating the adult sepsis study in Switzerland and we looked into this point very much. And those are too small to, to stratify for the type of bacterial in fact for the pathogen that causes sepsis so in a, in a like realistic time horizon so like a bigger, like collection of data says it's needed in just a Swiss one. Juliana. So, I mean, as bone said, the size of the data set did not allow to stratify but what we did do is that look for enrichments of certain, like statistical enrichment of certain strains in, for example, the like false positives or false negatives just to see whether for some strains, the model was like struggling more than for others, but we didn't find anything like exceptional. Thank you. And final question by Giovanni. Thank you for the talk. I was more curious it also in addition to my question apologies if I missed it but why is the rate of sepsis so much higher in children, like is it because of the immune system that's not developed. More immune system and also the mobile more general. So my question is, since somebody has mentioned the model is not like 100% reliable. Where is the situation in which you will, you would get some predictions wrong. And in the clinical setting, not all errors are made equal. In this case, would it be worse to get like a false positive or a false negative like what would be the consequences of both. I think, yeah, in this case, I think that's a very good question. In this case, we're doing the recovery prediction, not like really mortality prediction. So I would say it's better to give a false negative. So we consider still like paying attention is negative examples that I would still pay attention to this patients because the model thinks that patient will not recover. But hopefully eventually recover it, they'll be good. But if not, we can still have more additional attention on it. Thank you. Thanks a lot. Good. Thank you again. And we move on to the next speaker.