Hello everybody if it's Wednesday, it's Warhammer and that must mean it's time for another episode of Warhammer weekly That's right. We might be locked in but it's still time to talk about age of Sigmar and all things Warhammer Look, you can't keep us down. That's right. You can't stop it. This is the time For this kind of streaming and joining me as always also bunkered in his own house with a lot more people It's my co-host Tom Hello friends.   It's time to live on the road. Okay? It's been a good nine years West, right? Good luck. Yeah, you're out on your own. That's right that thing Bindle. Is that what it's called? It's called a Bindle I don't know. I don't know something like that. Also joining us this week. He's back It's it's the marathon man the man who has traditionally been our guest for long shows I don't think we'll go that late tonight But at any rate, it's mr. Tyler Emerson scrubby and Wells. How you doing buddy? Good. Good. See you guys. Yeah, man. Good to have you back on the show So We're gonna do some fun stuff tonight We're gonna talk about some statistics, but specifically a different kind of stats We're gonna talk about stats from the perspective of age of sigmar aesthetics aesthetics Based on the survey that what did I did and started last week? and since I was forced at The apparent barrel of a gun to buy that survey tool for the next year. I'll probably do some more of these Cuz I'm not gonna let this investment go to waste So right now don't don't ask about it. Anyways, just know that this was not a pleasant thing, but that's life At any rate, it's fine. Whatever Um Yeah, but of course first and I'm just let me say this I'm super excited about this some really cool results from this survey Some of which I am personally thrilled about some of which surprised me You'll see you as we get into it. I've got lots. I've got a little I've got a presentation prepared That's right. We're gonna do presentation time tonight. Okay, that's right. So At any rate, let's start with some news. What do we got? Rumor engine it's up on the screen Could be a 40k thing could be an aOS thing. This is an interesting thing weird blood letter-ish skull Tyler thoughts on the On the rumor engine from this week our blood Yeah maybe What's the name of that warband? We haven't seen yet. Although that seems unlikely that they would necessarily do a rumor engine for the Scions warband. Oh The oh the Scions of flame or whatever signs of flame. Yeah See that human mind initially, but May not be likely that they would do a rumor engine when you think that that's gonna be out pretty soon Well, we've seen the rumor engine they did two weeks ago was spoiled the next week Okay, they took a rumor engine was the little blades of grass or whatever on Ragnar or something like that. Like I mean it was that That I'm sorry not on Ragnar on the the new updated Rambo Cadian shocktrooper lieutenant lady. Oh, right. Yes. There you go. That's what it was. It was like a jungle plant and She got spoiled the next week I like that one Because it does look like a chaos staff from a sorcerer in that warband, which assumingly they would have some kind of Person like that or not warband war cry warband, whatever we're calling those things They might have that kind of person in there. Sure. Mm-hmm. Yeah, I could see that. I dig that. That's a good call Tom any different thoughts other thoughts? Something 40k Something 40k, huh? Yeah, I'm sure there's a legion. There's a legion that that goes with a damned legion or something sure sure It's like it is Obviously very chaos-y but I would love it if it was some kind of new Second wave for anything chaos-y and this was like some kind of chaos sorcerer dude. That would be super awesome But I think your scions is probably the right call So I like that All right, cool Great, what else we got Tom? What's our next big news item? I know what it is The world ended Adepticon was cancelled and everything else is cancelled just everything for the next two to three months has gone forever correct So the the next Warhammer Fest was cancelled adepticon was cancelled basically all the tournaments in the next two to three months are cancelled So congratulations to doom and darkness for running one of the last tournaments in the world That's pretty awesome way to go For the next couple months at least Obviously, we'll see how we how all this looks when it comes to the summertime, but yeah, I mean, you know, it's a shame I'm sad about it The you know, I spent about personally about 10 months prepping my golden demon projects for this year and Now they won't have a home. I guess I mean I can take them next year obviously But then then that means that means that the competition will be even more fierce Like the US Golden Demon was already set up to be an insane contest of insanity Okay, now you're gonna have another year of pent-up hobby coming at it I hope they're ready because it's gonna be Looney tunes next year And like it was supposed to be a huge announcement this year I know like with adepticon like I just and there's gonna be that sweet free model Sure, and like I just gonna get a free Lumineth guy most likely probably Yeah It's deflating we're all we're all dealing with it Tyler. What are your thoughts? Yeah, absolutely didn't they talk about it was gonna be a four-hour preview this year Yeah something something something insane, so maybe it'll be two hours each I thought I saw that they're gonna split it into two shows correct, which is the follow-up news item, which is that? but don't worry, we'll still get a reveal show and That is the first reveal show will be on the 28th and the second reveal show will be on the fourth so we're gonna split it into two reveal shows and Tom and I will do live streams afterward as apropos I think Tom you'll you you might be up here visiting during that time. I will physically be at your house. Yes. Yep We're we're being responsible Here's the deal They can take adepticon away from me, but they can't take Vince Though I'm forcing him to host me. That's right. I'm coming over and We're gonna play some games. Yeah, and there's nothing like let's not take all of this too into to an insane level Right, like you want to get together with a friend or two and have a meal or have some time and have a game of Warhammer For the love of God, that's fine. You know social distancing doesn't mean literally you're not allowed to leave your house It just means be responsible, right? So yes, of course perfectly fine And so I'm looking forward to that we'll see see who else we can get around to play some games You know a couple of us just hanging out playing some Warhammer sounds a great time Yeah, it's tempting. It's it's it's very tempting. I appreciate the invite Exactly. We were trying to get Tyler up here, but It's too far. It was too far. It's a little little too far to travel at this time. I understand. I mean, it's just an epidemic Yeah, yeah Yeah, it's fine Um, what else other news so Lumeneth are coming momentarily Like we have the Hammer Hall Herald drop. Yeah, they're about two weeks away. That's I mean if history bears itself out that is Have you look at that? I was always I was wondering if if anybody had nerded out on that looking at the time frame It's generally about two weeks. Yeah, okay Because I know intuitively it felt like that's been the case whenever you would see that you would shortly see the pre-order Yeah, I went back and looked a little bit like I'll admit I didn't like put it the dates into Excel or something like I did for the rest of these stats But yes in general, I mean give or take because the Herald usually comes out in the middle of the week, right? So yeah extra days there, but usually you're looking about two weeks Which would line up with what you would expect at adept con like one would expect that they'd have some stuff there And they'd go okay next week the whole it's all on pre-order. There you go or something like yeah The chain events one would expect which matches exactly to the two-week expectation, right? Yeah So it's Martin Orlando still digging his heels in that Tyrion is not coming He's really excited. He's in the chat. So I'm sure he'll tell us. Hi, Martin You're wrong, buddy. You were wrong. You were wrong when you started it. You're still wrong I mean, I personally hope he's not for reasons like previously said many times Well, if he's not that means we might get more elves later Like that's the key here if he is coming it could be a while Like because angel elves are way up here for me like that concept. That's like a hot 10. Okay? Way near the top Okay Existing elves that have been revealed Way down here. That's a one. That's a solid one. I Maybe a two or three just the the light of El Tharian is carrying all positive for for this army so far on his on his If you're on his shoulders. Yeah, yeah, but for me I just don't know like what I'm gonna do like this is a more existential problem Because since we've had rumor engines The answer has always been elves Sure, and and now we actually are gonna have them in hand and maybe it won't be else What's funny is that a lot of the times that on the show Tom, you've said elves Turned out to be elves Yeah, yeah, sure That's like the old trick of how do you program an AI to pick scripts You tell it like what's gonna be what what script is gonna make money or whatever you just make it program to always say no And it'll have a 95% confidence in her I was saying that like yeah, Tom has a Tom's hit rate is high only because they're the you know the number of guesses that he's had versus the because Yeah, just shots on goal is a thing here Yeah, we got a balance out some of the disdain that's been coming from you events on this show over the past few weeks Especially with You are you you've always been that way on the show Really really bringing it down It's very disappointing. Yeah, so Luminous are Fantastic. We've got a couple of issues Teclas or Teclas obviously and hat man The the mage that we've seen recently. Yeah, they leaned in a little bit too far into that hat Love it other than that It doesn't matter just show me the Giants Just does which one of the preview shows are the Giants part two. Is that the one? I got to wait on cool That's the one I'm excited for right just I Don't know. I just I'm trying not I'm trying to To stay on target. Sure. So what I'll say is that I am interested to see what the rest of the Luminous look like Because clearly there's more units to be revealed Yeah, well, it seems like it's gonna be that more of the Tyrionic side like they've been doing this what Teklian is the sort of magic prowess Moon symbology, etc. Tyrionic is the Sun the Marshall prowess Presumably light of a Therian maybe reflects the more of the aesthetic or that Terry Tyrionic science Maybe we'll get more and that kind of has that Diablo s sort of Diablo Angels, what are they called the I know you're talking about the guy who was like who showed up in Diablo two ends. I think a bad Yeah, Tario. Yeah, Tario Tario. Yeah Sounds right. Yeah, I've heard some rumors that they might be having more of that kind of aesthetic on the Tyrionic side So we'll see we'll see I mean, I will say in the Hammer Hall Herald spoiler that they gave it did say from the Teklian cities or Tekliac or however they they said it, right? Yeah, so like they they specifically attributed it to We lost your camera by the way there Tom. I'm working on that. I figured as much. Okay work away Well, while we're doing that Well, well Tom is working. I'm gonna we're gonna focus on Tyler here. There you go Okay, so Yeah, well well Tom's we're gonna that so we got that announcement of those things which is cool You know, I'm excited to see what the rest of that range looks like I'm excited to see everything that comes after it. This was such a big show Uh, I'd love some information on like when does that adeptus mechanical stuff come out because you've been spoiling it for Like three months. When do I get the rest of my city's force? Yeah, yeah, so I'm I'm pretty excited for that Yeah, uh, but yeah, like there's just this is It's it's a shame that all this has gone down in this year, but I really hope that it doesn't um You know impact what they had planned because I know this is going to be such a big year for aos right now That we're through all the books and everything so um Yeah, yeah the interesting to see how resilient their company in particular is to all of this But uh, that's a whole other topic the do you guys like this somewhat slow burn approach that they've been obviously they've been doing it with other factions previously, but certainly with luminous Uh the slow burn release. Yeah, I think so if you've got a if you've got a whole new thing Right if in other words if we're if we're dealing with a situation where it is a whole army Right Then yeah, I I would very much love to see This kind of treatment get rolled out for for other armies. I think it's pretty awesome um I don't know for people who are big fans of the elves Um I'd be curious to know what they think because they're the ones who it's really for hey tom's back. Yeah Yeah, I'm back But I mean for me it seems cool Yeah, I was just thinking historically It feels like such a contrast the world we're in now relative to how they used to do marketing Uh a number of years ago, you know, we were in a world where they were Very secretive and you wouldn't find you'd find out extremely little in advance And now it's quite different. Yeah, so yeah, it's kind of curious how folks Responding to that. I generally like it it's I think when this all started with the luminous they basically have done Four articles and it was every other week. Are they done four articles now? They've done three. There's another one coming currently Okay next week or something as normal gotcha. So it'd be about a yeah eight week Yeah, timeline here. So yeah, it's interesting. Yeah, I mean here's what I'll say they've tricked everybody into reading the lore Because they because they put out the deep dive lore on all these units and like You know slip in all the lore of the army and stuff and people are so hungry to You know know what's in the army and understand it and start guessing people now have read those lore articles So it worked. You did it. You tricked them So I love it. It's a great. It's a great trick force everybody to read lore It's a way to get those sections of the book actually engaged. Yeah Okay, cool All right Yeah, so kind of it looks like it looks like most people are pretty positive about the the long release or those who aren't Like Turrican said really don't like the slow burn, but the range looks so bad. I don't have any interested I mean, it's just Yeah, it's definitely more my than I was expecting so far. I mean, we'll see Once we see the the full range, but yeah For me, I think it highlighted. I think like as I've reflected on it because like I've had some time reflect on it Um as I've reflected on it, it's highlighted to me how important the old aesthetic was And not as a development, but how much I loved what the thing actually was itself Um and like how like again, it was what pulled me It's you know, like there's a nostalgia aspect because it was from like warhammer age of reckoning Like playing high elves and so like that the the aesthetic itself was important And so to have that aesthetic change and developed it no longer like triggers that nostalgia And and so now i'm just like oh well these guys just look dumb You know because it's not actually it's not invoking that those memories Yeah, it's funny. Thomas. I don't remember you playing high elves in in age of reckoning.   So I used it. It's all i'm saying um, yeah, I just uh Yeah, so there's that aesthetic thing. So i'm just i'm coming to terms with how much like I love elves But I may not love these elves Um and that's fine But it just means that I like if i'm going to do an army like it's going to have to be a different army project Well, that's so I mean one thing that's coming to mind in response to that is One potential outcome of the slow burn is that you get it in piecemeal as opposed to being able to sit down with your book or At worst listen to man reads book or you know find find someone that goes through the lore and Generally take it all in at once in one sitting and then sit with that But instead so it's you could be potentially forming the wrong conclusions too early before you actually have A fully developed picture of what you're ultimately going to be looking at And so that yeah, that could be one of the challenges with this because I tend to have quite a bit of confidence that I'm going to love The full picture once we see it that there's going to be a lot of care and thought Put into these different elements and certainly based on some of what I've been saying And some people are critiquing it.  I think we just got to wait and see until we get that full picture And really digest it Yep, but yeah, I feel pretty confident that they're going to they're going to do a good job with All of the bringing all of these elements together play style You know number of models variety the lore Even if there are some misses for some folks on some of the aesthetics I think it'll be a popular army just because of what it hits but as we'll we'll dig into it I would be I'll we'll we'll see, you know, maybe we'll do another survey like we did here for this stuff in the future And we'll see how the luminous compare against everything But I'd want to let some time pass because you're not going to get a clean sample if you do it You know the week they release or something, right, right? Um So but we'll see we'll see especially once we have the whole range. It's been in for a couple months and You know how it goes All right So that's all our news now quiet news week not too surprising other than the biggest news that's affected all of our lives in ways that we didn't expect But you know other than that whatever um So let's talk about some pick of the week man. Tyler. What do you got for us this week? Excuse me. Yeah Wargamer online. They have come back with updated simple fantastic battle report format And probably a lot of folks have seen them. They've done all kinds of things They've got a number of guys and gals have been involved in their team So, yeah, they have a new bat rip format that came out with Starting with the game with the new surf on battle tone last week And then they just launched another one with gifts versus fire slayers Uh, so check them out. I think it's a it's really nice format. Nice. Uh, I need to clarify something for our audience They're afraid that um, I have corona The sneeze slash cough um Let me clarify with everyone. I have terrible allergies. I'm congested and I'm sneezing It does involve a cough that is slightly dry But worry not. I have no fever no aches There's no threat of me being taken by the uh by the dreaded corona virus. Yeah, great fantastic okay, so, uh At any rate, yes, I believe I understand because in in here where I am it's been all over the shop on temperature It's been up and down 20 30 degrees every day like we had a we had a good edge or two of snow on the ground on On saturday, it was nuts And uh, and then the next day it was like in the mid fifties So, uh, so if you have like a lot of allergies or sinus stuff like I do boy, oh boy Was that a was that a fun time for me? Right. Yeah, exactly. Uh, but at any rate Okay, um Let's uh Let's uh, let's talk about that. Okay. So pick of the week continuing. Yes great picket. Uh, tyler. It will be down below Tom, what do you got? so um, I so, uh, we uh, we talked about how we're going to be doing a uh response to the um Reveal show here a little over a week week and a half Um, and actually that's going to be part of a larger set of programming that's coming. Um, there is a, uh A number of content producers are all gathering together in order to do uh Let me say it this way in order to help fill the airwaves after the cancellation of adepticon There it's under it'll be under the hashtag adepticon at home and um There a schedule is forthcoming, but basically we are going to try to fill the airwaves with live content Um for most of adepticon Uh through a bunch of different content producers in a bunch of different countries Yes, and I will say this is all being spearheaded by the coach Yep by aos coach who's doing a great job. So, uh, adepticon at home You can see it there. He just he just posted it in there. Um, if you follow coach, uh on twitter And in all his various socials and subscribe to his channel and stuff I'll put the coach's information down below. I mean you should already be doing that I'm going to use more of his information later on. Um, so do please go out and do that that will clue you in I mean, it's probably channels. Hopefully you're already subbed to But between our channel and a lot of other content producers and people who are doing stuff, uh For that weekend, especially so that that way there's there's hopefully a lot of stuff to entertain people Over what was supposed to be a a great convention weekend. We'll still Cover it as best we can with a lot of fun content. So There you go Yeah, definitely Okay, yeah, I'm gonna do a show with Mephisto. We've got to figure out what the hell we're talking about but Ah, that's fine. We're talking to meff. He's gonna find a way the man. He's a great He he he just he goes Yep, you run out the line Yeah Yeah, looking forward to it and be a lot of fun Uh, okay, so let's uh, oh my pick of the week. Sorry, uh, my pick is Uh, Trevarian was nice enough to have me on his channel A lot of people I talked about I saw I do the interview with the artist series and some people had asked about um Some people had asked about, you know, me being interviewed Uh, well trevarian reached out to me. He wanted to do he does his own series of interviews And he was interested. He wanted to know if I would come on. I said, sure I'd love to so we had just a nice chat. Uh, it's his own format. It's not he's in no way doing what I'm doing is very different, but uh It was a lot of fun to talk to him trevarian's obviously an incredibly talented artist and Uh, it was great to just sit down and talk hobby with him. So I'll link it down below Uh, but uh, you can go find that so it was a lot a lot of fun to do yes And you should also be subbed up to trevarian in general if you're not like I mean if you want If you're looking for some great painting advice, he is really a person that I watch everyone he does He's great. The man has a a Full clip of golden demons under his belt and you know, he paints display models more or less professionally and he's a Sculptor who does amazing sculpting work. So it's great. There you go. All right. Where was he based? Germany Cool. That sounds right. Yes In Germany, I think that's right Uh, because some people are in Germany and some people are in austria And I know that that's probably very insulting to the two of them, but like I I sometimes get who's in which They're confused You're the worst Clearly clearly apologies to all of our german and austrian Followers and listeners, um, okay, so let's talk about some hobby time guys Tyler I've got a bunch. I've got a whole bunch here. You know, I've been working on my stormcast army been painted up. Yeah Knocked out about 10 retributors the other day So, uh, hard hard work. You don't paint You know It's a long shot. I mean at this point The streak has to be maintained. It's gone on for too long to It's egregious. That's all I'm gonna say Here's what I'll say Is there a better time tyler for you to start painting than right now? That's all that's always everybody's line.  You're in a pandemic Streak has to be maintained boys. I've got principles I don't know what to tell you I I just I don't know how to respond tyler like you're literally playing one of the easiest to paint armies in the game if everybody wants to know how good this community is the fact that Someone like me that Like I still refuse to paint and that I haven't been ostracized from this community not entirely Everybody for the most part very nice. We've only really ostracized you we're slacking. That's true That speaks volumes of the quality of this community Like imagine if somebody just decided to not do sportsmanship. They're like They just showed up to the table and punched their opponent in the face They're like nah, I'm good. Yeah That's what that's the scale of what we're talking about.  What is this garbage? You're gonna bring this against me I don't even know why you put this on the table.   I want the one give me a zero Yeah I gotta say I do cosine the idea of Doug rigs Volunteering to show up and punch some people I'm I'm all in I'm volunteering for that to be punched by Doug. There you go. That's he's got him. He's got the punches Okay Are you at least I have you've been making some lists thinking about it that kind of stuff Like what are you working on right now hobby wise not painting, but there's yeah I do want to give a shout out to the fantastic metagames unlimited Which are going to be like probably all FLGS is across the country some tough times right now They've gone ahead and closed their game room and you know a lot of stores and they get by on very small margins So hopefully it's not going to be catastrophe for a lot of them with what's going on but You know, we've been blessed to have this extraordinary really large store for so long for Most of my life like two plus decades and it's gone from strength to strength And it's been a four going on a five-year process to grow ages the age of signal community from myself and about one other person Cody Bailey especially to we finally had Like a couple weekends before all of this happened A one day or where there were about 27 20 about 26 people that played Happen with 26 people in Springfield, Missouri And it was yeah, there were so many people who were a part of getting the community to that point Ryan Sala, Cody Bailey I mean I could list off a long list of names called Morgan So I just wanted to to thank those guys for all of their hard work and And helping make that happen and hopefully they'll be able to get through this and we can Keep growing it from that point. Yeah, we had We had people from st. Louis and you know, the store's interested in doing a two-day event which we were starting to plan for because Missouri is such a great spot with getting, you know, all the different hubs Texas, Oklahoma, you know, et cetera to come out for a two-day or So, yeah, just can't think those guys know for everything that they've done That's awesome. And to be clear everyone. Tyler doesn't play with gray models. He has a beauty He gets his arm commission So he always shows up with painted models. He only plays with painted stuff And you're not the first person I've actually met in this hobby. Who does that? It's just not nothing. It's not not your bag I will lambast you forever for it. But I have I know multiple people that's there I mean who here does pay play with professional models professionally professionally painted models all the time I mean, you know, well, I guess I'm and by the way Tyler also in addition to having a stuff commission painted always tells the to is that and extracts himself from like Any painting related awards or anything like that So like Tyler's a stand-up guy in this regard by all by all measures. So just I don't know about that. But yeah, that's important. It's important to do. Yeah, 30 32 models guys. That's all you need 32 models storm cast Eternals correct number of models 25 To 40 is the appropriate number of models for an army. That's right. I mean Off the lay os that's right. I put together like a 13 Tom you wouldn't run an army with less than 90 Get out of here. No, here's the you know, I put together like a 15 model list Fleshy report list And like almost ran it like I thought about as my next model including the summoning No, uh, there we go. Yep in comes the in comes the 60 ghouls and that's out the window my friend I mean, I can only summon another like 30 models not 60 come on now Stonch cast boys stonch cast boys It's been holding us. I've played a ton of stonch cast Over the last three months now And against I mean, we don't have all the filth like we don't have OBR We've got a fireslayer's player, but he's got some semblance of morals. So it's not 60, you know He's not running three by 20 hearth guard. Yeah. Yeah He's playing vote star, which I don't get why everybody's still playing hermdar himdar Vote star man the speed it opens up so many possibilities. I love it Sometimes you're gonna want to activate first, but No, sorry now like I'm still in hermdar between that One to wound permanently in a 12 inch bubble like well, yeah, but you get that you get that in vote star. You know That's the rate of hermdar. Oh, okay. I thought you still get it. Okay. Anyway, that's very impressive the speed of vote star No, it is it's it's very fast. Um, I have like I would love to run a volkite heavy Um magma droth heavy vote start. Yeah, if I did vote start I would like so when the inevitable hearth guard nerf comes Like I could see myself jump into vote starg and running Um volkite heavy block. Yes. There you go. I agree with uh with anthony with crazy horse in the chat By the way, tyler who said now you've got to add lord croak as an ally Uh, so yeah, I was looking at that It's it's interesting. Yeah one of the Items on the long list of se challenges right now is cp generation So, yeah, you kind of have to play in realm So I think really get full value out of croak with all those spells Obviously, you're not getting a spell or from seraphon if it's an ally, but yeah, no, that's uh, it's not a bad shot He'll do his own spell lots times. So that's fine. Yeah, that's true. Yeah, just spam. I guess you could how much is he right now three 40 320 He's pretty cheap. I think he's 320. Two cheap is the answer. We'll do we'll talk about our seraphon show next week I haven't I haven't internalized all of the seraphon stuff yet because I've been working with these stats so right Well, I was just thinking about the the beacon like the sking star priest or whatever If you'd have the points that you could ally in there, I don't I'm sure the sking star priest is not 80 points No, I think he's yeah, I'd have to go. I'd have to go. He's pretty cheap They're all the all the little skinky heroes. Yeah, dan said he's 320 all the little skinky heroes are pretty cheap But I don't remember which ones one of them is 80 points, but I don't remember which one's 80 points At any rate, um, and yes multiple people confirm 320. He's too cheap. Uh, but he's real good. That's for sure He's a he's a solid dude Also, by the way, I just want to shout out charles charles in the comment who said Commission painting is fair enough tom commission sports votes last year by having rob as his teammate at adept cotton so, I mean We got our we got our sports votes because rob was a a wonderful chap Oh, there you go. Yes, dan confirmed it's 120 for the priest. So there you go Uh, but yeah, psa stormcast players play more dragon. It's all about the dragon boys. I've been saying that for a while The dragon is so good Like oh my god Yeah, he's good. I played probably 40 games. That's died. Maybe only six times I I personally want The next like I want that next stormcast book and I want them to redo the battalions Keep the battalion with three of like the Templars, but actually have that model be worth it's like good Yeah, you know and make that battalion have a good ability and give me an excuse to go buy three star drakes Look gw. There's money on the table here if you make it worth it because I will run that army Yeah, absolutely. I I have one Yeah, it's you're gorgeous You know, that's one of those models high up on the list of when you first seen see the photo Many of us had first seen that photo with that, you know, the leg kind of awkward Armor plate placement, but you see it in person. Yeah, it's it's fantastic. Yeah, it's fun to me too Tom, what are you working on? dwarves but I I decided to do an evaluation of my collection And figure out because like we had like I've been able to like piece together chaos stuff the last, you know Two months or whatever just like with what I had but It's come time for me to like fix my numbers like I had a lot of unbilled or partially build arco and so to make sure that I have like a thematic gunner and a Whatever their face in each unit, you know like and so like to remest with my numbers in order to make sure Like the distribution is right on all of them So I've been doing that and then I finally like I needed to look at my thunders Because I had a bunch of bodies and partially open boxes and partially built stuff And so uh this week I built my last thunder Like the last one that I owned that was unassembled that he has been built Um, and I think of five thunders or something that was 55 thunders Now to be clear 20 of those have been converted into hammers But Uh, I have an actual 35 thunders and I'm probably gonna buy another Five So I'm pretty sure that my next order that I put in with mini stomp Will be five more thunders surround out those numbers Nice to get to a nice four So cool So yeah, so uh, and then I've been basing a bunch of like old Dispossessed trying to figure out what I want to do with those like rebasing and a bunch of hand Thunders that I'm going to use maybe it's hand gunners and And minors that I'm going to probably convert over to be shadow warriors And so I don't know we'll see I But I wanted to get like all of my dwarves built and done Because the plan is within the next month and a half. I'm gonna I might start a new army army project And so what I'm going to do with that is um, I think I'm going to leave it up to the community as to what I start next And so when once I have a clear picture of what lumeneth looks like And if it's something that I can stomach that'll determine if they end up on the um on the ballot or not and so uh, we'll uh, so look for that probably beginning of may I'm guessing mid april or beginning of may So we'll see you'll be all in just get your head swaps ready I mean I already know what head swaps i'm gonna do like if I do it like I have enough elf heads and stuff like that Like a bunch of sisters of the watch That I could make it work. Um But regardless, I don't know like I I have some other ideas too. So we'll see cool. Uh, for myself I decided with this, you know, not leaving my house much, which is a big change for me Um I didn't leave my house like I don't leave my house before But it's time to take my medicine with uh with my Tempest with my whirlwinds edge force, so I'm working on 10 bikers Uh for the other 10 of my pistol ears This this project has taken longer than I wanted because I've been one because I it's actually really time consuming to pay all these dudes And two because uh, I had to work with all those stats, but they're almost done now I need to weather out the bikes and then finish up the bases I've got 10 bikes and 10 bikers and all my little bikers are nice Combinations of various kinds of like techie bits and classic bits. There's no way this is gonna show But like here's a little classic dude with uh, he's got little tech Weird ad mech legs and body, but he has like a little pistol ear helmet and old timey pistols Uh, I have a more classic knight with a shotgun, you know, all the fun stuff Uh, because knights with shotguns are cool So I tried to mix him up like that And that'll be my that'll then I'll have enough to actually run the tempestive battalion if I want of the Three units of pistol ears, you know the other unit that you can take in that battalion Why that's zero to two gun haulers So I also had to make up my custom gun hauler which I made right here Uh for it. So again going with the same aesthetic of all the different sort of boilers that have been put in And uh, I'm excited to paint this guy. I love I love kit bashing these weird vehicles It's a lot of fun. So hey, yeah vents. Yeah, man Can you add images to your poll? Can I add images to my poll? Yes, yeah, like can you do this? I can when I do a survey now. Yes, I can have an image in it. Yes Just curious I'm thinking of future surveys you want to run tom I mean if you have it and you you need to I may uh, I may use that as my as my survey tool. Sure. That's fine. Wait, look, let's let's get the use out of it Okay, that's all I'll say I mean if you paid for it. Yeah, every new survey is more more worth money. It's I had to pay there. So yeah, exactly Okay, how many how many points you up to? Uh, so once these get done, right? uh 450 or sorry 350 there with all the the pistoliers and the gun hauler and then Uh, otherwise I have about 1400 so this will put me up to like maybe 17 ish 50 total. So I have two steam tanks No, more than that 2000 this this will put me to 2000. Sorry. I have two steam tanks uh, a uh Big ko ship and ironclad a freegill general on griffin Uh, I've got the um Prime yep prime time I've got five other bikers and I've got three gyrocopters So cool Nice. Yeah, so this it's it's coming right along. Uh, I just need to think of what else I want to add when the ad mix stuff comes out So there you go. I'll just seek out coach for some advice. I'm playing that top tier tempest eye army Yeah, he tore him up tore up those tables last weekend I'm not sure that's actually what happened right right coach. Oh, no, okay. I thought I thought he tore it up Uh, I am not gonna comment Hmm I'm gonna point to the to the review I did of his list And suggest if you want to know what my thoughts were and Something that actually reflected the reality of what happened go watch my review.  He definitely had a soft list He did but it was an ice queen. He's the frost queen from the old, uh Uh, whatever they're called Kislip the kiss love models. Yeah, I have sitting around here in a box as well I I don't know what to do with her. She's this crazy mono pose metal But I always saved her just in case I wanted a mounted queen model so Yeah, it's a nice model. I'm glad I used a great model, dude. I used your A couple different things. All right, so, uh Uh Gentlemen, you ready to talk some stats. Let's do it. Okay. Who's ready for power point? No, wait, we're not gonna be able to see this, are we you you have to be watching the show. Yes, you're gonna need to Okay, man. We will see you. Yeah, isn't that the worst high tech? Wow He should have just let me do it Like that's what should have happened is he should have just let me do it and then everybody could watch it Yeah, because letting you do things on the show clearly has worked out in the past. I mean It's the solution Make myself smaller here, so I don't block any of the data Small then we'll bring this up and we'll go into a little presentation mode. Oh, it's all right Swap There we go Minimize that now. I should be up in the corner Okay So there we go. Now. I'm just a little box in the corner and people can't see you Wait, I can get naked. Okay Uh, don't do that. I wish I I don't have many animations or transitions. Sorry folks. This is just like This is pretty bare bones as far as presentations go. Okay. It's the data that was more interesting I didn't have a lot of time to make this Uh fancy But here we go So this was based on the survey that uh that came in that everybody was nice enough to fill out If you fill out the survey, thank you, uh, so it was about 900 survey respondents Obviously as all things we'll talk about correlation. It's hard to ever draw causation Um, this was specifically targeted at ranges that had a model released during age of sigmar either 1.0 or 2.0 Model ranges that had only a single model such as a single hero in a box were excluded excluded and all respondents were Asked to consider only the models, but there is no way to enforce that So just a quick note on assumptions and risks. Okay Cool. We're on the page Interesting stuff. Now, let's get to the fun stuff. Oh, let's cut off Well, that's not very nice There we go. Now you can see it I switched it around Okay, cool. So now people can actually see the numbers and by the way, I'll figure out a way to share all of this By the way, it's my chosen way to view powerpoint Emily. Don't continue Sure Oops, no, we skipped we skipped slides. There we go. Sorry. I don't know if you have Well, okay, what's the as usual? What's the why here? Why why did you do this in the first place? Yeah, it's a great question I'm gonna I want to see if I can I need to I need to reorient this a little bit I can't put it in actual presentation mode because otherwise it cuts off part of the screen for everybody Yeah There we go see if I can get it to a point where we'll be able to see it nice and big Okay, there we go, and I'll shrink this side down because I don't need that. Sorry folks I didn't realize in presentation mode. It was gonna cut off that side of my screen. I want to make sure everybody can actually see this stuff Okay, there we go That looks a lot better. Can you hide the pant the sidebar? I can I can minimize it way down Oh, no cover me up There you go okay So this is as this is as close to presentation mode as I can get because if I put it in preso mode, it takes my full screen and OBS doesn't actually capture the full screen All right. So at any rate, uh overall statistics. Oh, sorry. It's right. Start with the why why'd I do this? Yeah, it's a great question Tyler so I became interested in this actually because of a political thing Okay, it's we don't this isn't like a politics show But just to kind of let everybody in on on what my thinking was here There was an interesting factoid that I heard that's come up a couple different times at different points in like the primaries Which is basically like as as a simple example They they asked people like would you vote for a woman for president? And most responded said yes, and then they said do you think other people would vote for a A woman for president. So like the majority answer to that question was yes fine enough And then they said do you think your friends and neighbors or people you know or people in your town or there's several different times The survey was run would vote for a woman for president and the majority answer was like no Okay, so the point here was everybody is actually like quite fine with with this But everybody thinks everybody else is not because that makes sense. There's a there's a perception bias here right And so one of the things I wanted to dig in on amongst many other things I wanted to know how successful have the ranges that have been released in aos been But I was also interested to know like is there a perception bias Do people think everyone else thinks armies are different than what they actually are Yeah, okay And the answer is yes Yes, they do All ranges every single range that's been released Had a lower personal score than a group score So let me unpack that when you asked somebody What did you think of the army? They answered a lower number Than it on average on a weighted average then what they thought everybody else thinks the army To put it as simple as possible All of us think everyone else likes armies more than they do Okay So you can see it over here on the side where I have this all sort of in a stacked chart We'll we'll dig into it later, but then lots of we'll we'll break out this data in lots of different ways But if you look at like stormcast stormcast's weighted average was 5.57 which puts them toward the bottom Okay, when I went asked what do you think of stormcast? When the question was what is what do you you know? How successful overall do you think the the model line is or how much do you think everybody else likes it, right? It was 6.43 Right, but the point is we got enough respondents on the personal level that we can say that's probably not true Now 900 certainly is a long way from the The entire community, but it's probably statistical significance, right because everybody answered all the questions So, um, I mean, I didn't calculate out the p of it, but it's probably statistical significance eyeballing it So, uh, that's fascinating to me that that bias is there I mean, what do you anybody thoughts on that that everybody thinks everybody else likes armies more than they actually do Well, that just that just suggests to me that there's a positivity bias and doesn't actually reflect people's actual Um perspective on The armies no, it's a positivity bias. Yeah, I agree So that so Sorry, it's gonna be starky continue.  I should say nobody we'll get it. We'll we'll look at the individual army statistics later fire slayers were very unpopular and and aesthetically and People don't think anybody else likes them either on average Right like in general they still had higher. It was still a bump But it wasn't a huge bump. So Yeah, like going into this I would have guessed fire slayers would be at the bottom and iron jaws would be near the top Which is in terms of just just aesthetics Sure, and on on the all inclusive weighted average that was true But the the winner overall of like single respondents was gitz Mm-hmm. Okay. Gitz that they were the highest like what do you personally think of the army? And gitz got a 6.98. They were the highest Personal response Which is fascinating because they're probably one of the least changed armies from the warhammer fantasy Well, I think they got a lot of successful models that that integrated in but it's interesting because the top three As you can see from this we could go to the top four or whatever because there are four in a row Gitz iron jaws knight haunt and s and slaves to darkness Yeah, that's those are all of those that basically have unchanged models. I don't know about I don't know about your real I mean It's hard for me to say that iron jaws and knight haunt are like that they have Iron jaws has one model in the range from warhammer fantasy Right, but the aesthetic is almost identical just bigger and bulkier I Sure, it's it's a it's a very strong evolution on a concept I mean, I don't know that you would necessarily say a brute is completely derivative of an ard boy There's a lot of differences there is the armor is much more beaten It's much more shapely the weapons are quite different like there are significant aesthetic differences But nonetheless people still liked it and felt like it was I think what that's saying tom is it seems to be pointing toward evidence That you're right. It was a successful evolution. How about that? sure And again knight haunt has what like Three units that they kept the car and wraith the banshee and the spirit host And then everything else was new. Is that right? Yeah, did I miss anything? Oh, uh, I guess technically we could grandfather in the um The heck right? Oh, right. You're right. I'm sorry. The hex rates is four and that was gonna grandfather in the mourn goal So there you go So yeah So interesting stuff here. All right Okay, any other thoughts um Yeah So I don't I don't know if you want to get maybe you have a format here But I was going to ask what were some of the hypotheses that you had going into this Like what would be some of your predictions and yeah, that's a great question. What were some of it? Let's let's do. Yeah, that's that's a fair point. Uh, I was predicting that people would hate fire slayers and I was right Uh, I thought slanesh would do a lot better than it did It did not It's it not too well. It is in fact third from the bottom on personal rating Right, which is weird Right. Yeah, that's surprising. Well, you'll see when we get into the individuals Those I would argue those are some of those beautiful models they've ever released So Um, ko is kind of right in the middle. I thought they would have rated higher I knew they'd be very marmite, but I would have thought they'd come in a little bit higher But that being said like ko still came in at 643 which That's a point and a half higher, you know, plus higher than the lowest thing, right and only 0.75 ish off of the highest thing Does that make sense? So there's still like yes, they're at the they're the median Army, but they're above average Yeah Did you think much I don't remember talking about this uh To the degree well, I think it's difficult to try and correct for What's going on in people's heads other than doing your best to make it abundantly, you know As clear as you can what the goal is of this survey, which I thought you did a good job with But in terms of like selenish, for example, of course, we had the the shelf selenish band selenish You know, we had a healthy period there where Selenish was disliked by by many people and so maybe that is Bias Yeah, like how you know sylvanas with the wild woods and and people's disdain Of or at least many people's disdain of having to play with a bunch of woods To play that army in the first place like how much does that potentially bias them? Yeah, it's a good question. I think when we get to the individual armies, I think that's worth a discussion right like is it could You know has the bias of like getting kicked in the teeth repeatedly by army has it influenced people's Overall appreciation of the upset Right hard to say. Okay. So next slide Let's talk about that. Let's talk about that perception delta. So this this slide digs in on the perception delta a little So this is the difference between personal perception and group perception The highest delta is selenish Okay As a unfortunate point of fact People don't actually seem to like selenish very much in our survey like it got a 5.36 as I said They're from the bottom. Okay But when answered, what do you think everybody else thinks of selenish? right uh The like way higher answer 6.66 it's a 1.3 jump Like that is a huge delta on 900 answers, right? Clearly Vince you've influenced the community to love the aesthetic to think that everybody else loves the aesthetics of sludge. I mean I Like obviously i'm the one who put out the survey and I rave about selenish a lot. So You know, you're not wrong, but at the same time The second place as you can see from the chart here is obr Who has still higher than a one? Perception delta difference and I wouldn't say I've been super kind to obr Again, obr did not great 5.39 coming in just above selenish on people actually liking the aesthetic. So again Like it's one of the lower respondents by far like fourth in the bottom But uh But yet people think like well the community clearly loves obr as a whole right? um So what I'm hearing you say is that if you want to get positive votes from people For painting scores In composition choose the army that are perceived highest By the community iron jaws slaves to darkness night haunt Uh gets yeah, exactly like people love the aesthetic and will have a positive have a sort of generically positive response to the army Yes, in other news three of the five armies that I'm looking at running are in that top list Don't worry coach. You could only complete the survey once it was locked like you could only uh, you could only You could only enter that everybody could only respond to the survey one time um The other interesting points to pull out of here are sylvaneth and gitz Who have both had an extremely low perception delta point one seven Uh sylvaneth themselves were six three three and six five Uh, so overall pretty middle of the pack to be honest Uh, but most people think they're pretty middle of the pack like if there's there's very little gap Everybody thinks like yeah, they're good like personally. They all think yeah, they're good And I think everybody else thinks yeah, they're good It's acceptable. Yeah, yeah, I I mean I suspect for some of these armies these factions that have been out for a while Some of them would be different or potentially quite different if we had done the survey in 2016 when sylvaneth came out For example, at least that that would be my guess in the sense of when sylvaneth came out in 2016 Like I mean again as usual heavy potential for bias, but my general impression is that they were Well regarded You know quite quite quite well regarded in the community a lot of interest in that army, you know, it's the Existing aesthetics and then what we saw with cernoth, you know, everybody left cernoth hunters They were and still are an incredible model Laryl was one of those first big kids that came out showing, you know, really gw flexing their muscles But they just sigma r is absolutely extraordinary. It still holds So yeah, I just wonder if some of these have been out for a while might have tapered off relative to what score they would have gotten when they came out It's a great question. Yep And it is true and it's obviously something I can't really, you know, correct for because it'd be very hard to regress out Yeah, now what I'll say is that Uh The Interesting part about this to me Okay, is that held against each other? It's interesting when you look at the difference between sort of against a Theoretically objective score that is to say if you just hold it against the one to ten rating, right? Most of these are pretty middle packed Right, like in general, there's only the only army that got less than a five So let's call it less than average or whatever, right if five is to be the average Uh The only army that got less than that was fire slayers, right? So it's the only one that seems to even that everybody seems to agree like yeah, that's kind of a failure Right. So if you hold like a sixth the the six three three of sylvaneth against that that's pretty good On a survey of this many people to still come in there that says it's pretty broad appeal That's true. Yeah. No, that that's that's very true Yeah, it's just it's a bit but when you put it against more of the subjective or the comparative Uh matrix it gets a lot different, right? Like there they're pretty middle-roaded. So Right. Yeah, I think that's an important point because Just looking at these numbers It would be helpful to understand What you think should be some of the high level takeaways And you just hinted or just kind of laid out one of those elements as You know in in terms of how we should be anchoring ourselves How we should how we should be thinking about these numbers overall Yeah, and Yes, you're right like definitely sylvaneth from that standpoint. Uh, yeah, it's pretty good So it is interesting like oh, we'll we'll obviously do a summation at the end, but I think that there's um I think this is a lot of interesting stuff here and no no des there was no scaven because there's no new scaven released in aos Like no new like here. Yeah, so like we this was about the aesthetics of new models. Correct. Yeah, and they only had one model right yep Okay, what I'm what I was specifically testing for here is Have the aos army release has been successful and how have they been? Received right so there you go Oh, I'm thank you dan pointed out the underworlds guys. I'm okay. I'm not counting underworlds warbands either Uh, I don't remember those guys are in the book or not. They might know they didn't like they didn't even get added to the book That was the uh the scandal. Yeah, I'm not counting underworlds warbands Like I gotta try to hit things that actually had at least a significant part of their standard model range I had to cut this somewhere folks because the problem is scaven have 70 war scrolls those two If I say evaluate scaven, you're not evaluating scaven based on those two war scrolls right Uh, okay Next up Uh, so this is fun here. We'll get more into the here. I broke these apart Uh into so the top two are your personal ranking spreads by score and then by count As for who selected what one through ten, right? And the bottom is your group ranking one through ten. Does that make sense? Okay, so what's fascinating to me here is obviously like I said personal ranking is universally lower when you look You know up and down, right? Also, there are switches Um, like on the personal ranking gets come at the top, but on the grouping ranking iron jaws come at the top So gets an iron jaws flip um On the personal rankings, uh k o are um are sort of uh K. O. Nurgle night haunt all this stuff kind of bounces around some that's my point. Sorry Uh, like night haunt nest 2d flip between those two as well So I it's fascinating how those deltas actually match out But the other thing that really interested me was I look at the actual vote tally So the vote some spread when people are voting for themselves right um and It's not uh, it's not a perfect belcher like people are much more willing to tail the curve to add to vote one in ten No, right? So when you look at it, there's this tail up at one in ten that have a very large number of votes, right? right Again, these are roll-ups over all the votes over all armies, right? and Uh, when you look at the vote some spread for the group, you know, how you're thinking about other people voting It's almost a it's almost a a perfect bell curve, right? um Not exactly perfect, but it's but it does track correctly, right? You don't get the you don't get the weird bounce tails um So everybody everybody naturally thinks of everybody else as a bell curve Right, like that's what that's what the sort of emergent property is when we try to think about other people We think in bell curves We think in our own personal response people were much more willing to give ones and tens On their personal responses than they were on how they think other people think about it. Yes Yeah, yeah, so in addition to like a positivity bias, there's a moderation bias Yeah, does that make sense? Yeah, definitely. Yeah Yeah, when I was filling out this survey, I remember thinking about that that Like it doesn't Almost ever seem it never seemed appropriate to Consider giving any of these releases a one Because of what that would represent and I was also extremely hesitant to give a 10 To anything. I don't think I gave a 10 to anything. I gave a couple of nines, but that doesn't seem to track With what a lot of others did that's interesting Yeah, and I mean still when you look at it, I mean you just it's a simple comparison People are much less likely when when they're thinking in terms of averages Like this is what I think the average of the community is is talking about It's it's easy to understand that you'd be like well the average probably isn't a one or a 10, right? It's kind of the the inference you would expect when people start making that kind of a logical inference, right? Right 990 people were willing to give a one on their personal But only 138 gave a one when they thought how does the rest of the world think about it, right? Right. Yeah Which I think logically tracks again because you slip into a sort of different mode, right? Yep So cool stuff there any other any other thoughts on this one gentlemen. This was pretty straightforward. Just more of a derivation on the previous slides Yeah, KO is surprisingly a little higher than I would have thought or might have expected by the general sense of communal response over the years to KO might have expected it to be a little lower than it is, but that could be Maybe a positive sign in terms of folks really responding to the goal of assessing by model aesthetics Yeah With that with yeah with without too much correlation with rules or you know play style or that sort of thing In terms of the misses of that battle tone originally Uh, it's fascinating to me the the How flat a lot of this is and then how much fireslayers just drop like a rock Yeah Like it is It is Very very very strongly You see the curve so much stronger in the group ranking Where the lowest group ranking outside of fireslayers is 6.2 and then all of a sudden just wham Like a point and a half falls off right Yeah, uh compared to the personal Like fire flare aesthetics. It seems to be the case. Yes Like man, that sucks for me Yeah, and that's definitely I was gonna say it's it's really well, I mean it's kind of an obvious statement, but it's certainly really borne out over the years in the Low percentage of folks playing the army relative to the power level of that army especially In more recent months. Yeah, but I mean fireslayers were were quite solid Prior to hearth guard going to 24 400 And we still saw a very low percentage being played right right Yeah, I mean it's it's it's clear that this kind of stuff matters Right, it's also clear to me that as long as you can end up in sort of the good group Right, like if you can if you can end up hitting that curve Then other things can take over right is what I would say is is my um What do you mean by that if you can hit a certain point on the curve Right, and we'll talk about how the curve matters and and how it can also How when you dig in the devils and the details, right? But if you can average to a certain point on the curve Then other things can start to also influence how much you see that and get played like are the rules good are the How cheap is it how easy is it to get the army play the army, right? You know fireslayers has classically been both sometimes kind of expensive often kind of expensive and also You know of varying rules quality And then combine that with clearly an aesthetic that people were not generally a fan of and you've got a real challenge on your hand, right? Yeah Yeah, great point Okay So this one's fun This is our number of one votes By army and our number of 10 votes by army in other words the people who selected one and the people who selected 10 Okay So Here you can see like so so who's getting the most ones? Uh, the answer is and and this is going to be real relevant later You'll see when we go to it when we get to the next slide because I'll I'll do some comparative stuff here Uh Fireslayers by far winning this with the number of ones 136 people voted that they're only a one slanesh Coming in uh second place and then third place out of nowhere Nurgle Wow, yeah Yeah, that's pretty shocking I mean is it though? well I don't know. Yeah, that's Definitely Must be an area where I had I would have thought Nurgle would have been more in the middle Would not have seen that much skew But I yeah, I don't know. Why do you think that's not surprising tom? Are you thinking tom? We can't see you thinking Some people uh, I think part of it is that some people will have triptophobe tryptophobia like vince does and there's just like a Rural reaction to it like sure And so some people just don't like the gross sure they don't and so I think that um So they react so I think they're more likely to draw those ones Yes, yeah, this is measuring extreme reactions, right? That's what these two that's what this page is doing and What fascinates me about this is obviously nurgle and obr are statistically equivalent 98 and 97 right like there's no statistical difference there Uh, so a lot of people were willing to throw one votes at obr as well Um, and when you look at this like you you would ask the question about getting kicked in the face Right. Uh, well fire slayers slanesh and obr are all Boogeyman to some degree right all three of them have some kind of arguable npe It varies points in their history, right? Yeah negative play experience Nurgle has mostly not right like Nurgle for the most part has been pretty fair and fine to play unless you played tom, but yeah I mean like and that's but that was still like tom's Weird thing going way way way way way back right like right Except to the two of you Yeah, yeah, and even so that was more of almost a slaves to darkness thing because that was pre maggotkin, right? Right Um, so it's okay Sure, it's it's fascinating to me that that's that's up there Um at the same time the people who were who got the lowest number of one votes are kind of exactly what you would expect Like gets slaves to darkness Uh night haunt. I'm still gonna have it coming in there only 37. Yeah, absolutely It's right up there in that chart like People there aren't a lot of haters if this is measuring your hatred, right? Sylvaneth don't have a lot of haters. There's not a lot of people who are just like no Sylvaneth is awful right because that's if you're throwing a one at it. You think that army's awful Yeah, aesthetically it's the worst right Yep. Yeah, um, yeah, I get I get storm cast. I mean kind of for obvious reasons Certainly that that was a long-standing narrative, particularly early on in aos So there's there's still some of that lingering that's out there, you know, some some folks. Yeah, I just don't like the aesthetic That's that's fair But yeah, I can definitely see some some potential bias with obr slanash and fire slayers in terms of the kick kick in your face Getting your face kicked in influencing those numbers potentially Especially obr slanash, I don't know obr slanash. I don't I get fireslayers. I don't get obr slanash Well, so let me say this as well.  I just I I so let me get this straight. It's like bones Like skeletons shaped out of bones wearing bones That's what the army is I don't think that's in the audience tonight because he would be he would be popping up right now. I'm sure Absolutely, but yeah, I just I get the and especially if there's an expectation of like more tomb kings like aesthetics Like I can understand people could have reacted less than positive to the joker skeleton army I seem to recall we did have a fair amount of negative reactions during the slow burn Preview of obr that we're going around. So yeah, that could be fair Maybe they only slow burn armies that are aesthetically not so hot I don't know So let's look at the number of 10 votes. Let's move over to the right side. Okay, because this is also interesting to me There's a couple different points. I want to draw everybody's attention to here Um, one obviously your big winner on 10 votes were gits. They were they were they were a big winner there at 151 Uh with iron jaws not far behind and then knight haunt and ko in a statistical dead heat, right at Uh, so fascinating to me that that ko still like when you talk about people who this is this is people who are like Ride or die. They love this army. They love this aesthetic when you personally vote a 10 like it hits for you Right. Yeah, that's that's what what's going to motivate you up to hit a 10, right? I can't think about another army that scores higher on Uh influencing the rating when you see them in person then ko at least at least for me, certainly ko is probably the top of that list Looking at the pictures and actually seeing them in person. Yeah, they're they're pretty incredible Yep, they're better with farsighted molocks Sure, um The the other thing that I want to draw people's attention to is that nirgle number on 10 votes Which is not in like the top five, but it's the next one down. It's it's the sixth place, right? It's still quite high over a hundred a hundred nine Which is going to you're going to see how this manifests in the next slide when we when we get to some interesting breakdowns Okay, but like also nirgle has a lot of adherent diehard fans, right? So there's nirgle gets a lot of love and a lot of hate which I thought was real interesting The other thing I'll say is that when you talk about sort of, uh The moderation bias this chart really calls out if you look at the actual numbers Most people when they thought of what everyone else thinks because of the positivity bias There were very very low responses on I think everybody else thinks this is a one Right Like only three people three Thought that everybody else thinks silvin f is a one Yeah, right. That's basically nobody right that might as well say zero Okay, not to discount you three people who responded and if you are one of those three vince just called you a noble nobody I'm just saying it's more or less statistically equivalent to zero right on a number of on this number of responses um However A lot of people were willing to say yeah, I think other people think this is a 10 right Like the the delta between the personal and the group is much lower On like there's an order of magnitude difference in many cases on The or or nearly in the in the one votes personal to group But there's only about a 50 percent often in the personal to group of tens right Um 88 people still think everybody else or the average of everybody else is everybody thinks iron jaws is a 10 Which I agree with more people thought that everybody loves iron jaws than they thought everybody loves gets Although that's right behind it Yep I could see that It's iron jaws are just sexy They really are Yeah It's a great model line Uh, it absolutely is I will also I want to shout out here the seven people Who thought that the that the overall impression of fire slayers was a 10 These seven heroes Who are who are blinded by an unbelievable bias to these wonderful little naked bearded man I was not one of those 10 to be clear Um, but I was not far beyond that I quite like the aesthetic because I felt like it transferred the slayers from the old world world over fairly well Okay fair enough so So i'm gonna defend my my midget lovers All right next up, so here's where we get to the marmite rating and the meh rating. Okay Uh, which is just in case explain explain marmite marmite. Yeah, so marmite's like a uh, uh, sort of it's a uk Slash, you know the british the greater british World thing of like marmite is classically this thing that you either love or you hate Right, there's no there's no middling opinion on marmite. You either absolutely love it or you absolutely hate it So hence what we're looking at here is a much is a comparative Around the ones and tens like the but those put together from a personal and group point on a single chart And what immediately jumps out to you is that nergal is the marmiteist faction, right? because they have the closest combination of Only nine votes apart of ones and tens like so the ones are orange and the tens are turquoise in this one, right? um It's fascinating to me that nergal hit that mark Right Right, right Other close contenders with you know, which which had very close number wise, but didn't have as many votes You know not as extreme opinions were like zinch and corn Also were like very close to each other, but but didn't get the same high vote count A lot less people were willing to rate them ones or tens overall. So they're they tended to be more middle grouped, right? There you go. Yeah, yep Uh, so I thought that was pretty fascinating. Uh, the it doesn't come out as much in the Uh grouping because if you look at the group rating Everybody thinks people love nergal way more than they do Right, that's the nergal Nergal 42 people said yes, people rate nergal as a 10 only eight said they rate them as a one The reality is they're much more marmitey than they are That then people perceive them to be right Okay, so that's the marmite rating Uh the meh rating meh right meh is fives okay meh is like when you Uh, that you've got a five And so this is just a count of the five votes And so who is your kings of for me? I don't know if you can hear me. Is that yeah, I can hear you Hello Okay, okay. Was he okay? There you go. Sorry. I think it it's skipped for a minute and slowed down, but we're back now I'm watching it Okay, cool Okay, there we go. We're back. Let me reconnect to tom Pain it up. Hey guys, we're here. Hey, all right. We're back.  Hold on That's sharing that I saw for George Sorar yesterday and it was actually quite a good film Yeah, I dug it Okay, there we go. Hopefully it's reconnected It says it is See if it actually We'll come back up here. Okay chat's back there you go Yay, we're back We were just talking about how this is probably going to be a very marmite episode Some people are going to be like really chat. We're not real happy about the episode. It's pretty boring. So you need to spice it up, Vince Okay, I'm working on it All right. Well, we're getting there man. We're getting there. Don't worry. All right, folks Sorry about that. My internet just decided to die for no reason not mine.  Okay. Anywho, we're back. So We were moving on to the meh rating.  Right So what I was asking is do you think that that's actually Fair in terms of the anchoring is five an actual meh In terms of the anchoring for this in your opinion My answer would be yes because if it didn't spark that It like it didn't produce either a love or a hate. It just produced a Yeah, okay. It's okay. Yeah. I guess another way to phrase it is How should gw take that? should they be Like is that incredibly acceptable saying a lot of factions in that five range Or is that falling short what says to me that they're playing it safe on those factions Would you would you agree with that Vince? Yeah, I mean, I think what that says is that and and some of the the winners here in this category were surprising to me, right You'll you'll see a little bit clearer picture when we look at the individual army groupings. I've got some samples of that, right but uh the uh Mark rosewater gave a talk where he said the worst thing you can do in game design Is produce a product that if you ask everybody to rate they give it like a five or six Hmm, okay, right because that's not going to be a successful product You want like 70 of the people to give it a a eight or a through ten and 30 of the people to give it a one or a two Yeah Right. Yeah, that makes sense because that tells you you're provoking strong responses from people right, right um So the the mehest armies in personal response are corn and daughters of cane What? They're just Somebody asked in the comments how many total votes is about 900 respondents total to the survey So there you go. It's out of about 900 votes It's that's pretty lame. Like they're just pretty, you know ladies and bikinis just not doing it for me. Sure So so in other words out of about 900 people that answered 132 of those said gave corn a five Right, which is a fairly decent percentage, right? um Okay comparatively when you look at say gets getting a 60 69 or ko getting 68, right? Like it's it's a notable difference Um So, yeah Somebody asked is there any difference in sales between a rating of a six and a one? That's a that's a piece of yeah, that's a piece of data. I don't have I am fascinating to look at it would be This is just the models by the way for people who are joining late. Hello everybody. Sorry. I was We were offline for a moment But yes, this is just the models people were asked to evaluate based on the aesthetics of the models alone Now I can't enforce that I have no way of knowing what people's biases or or what they took into account in their voting But that was the ask so there you go um Yeah, and I think probably the part of the answer there of corn and dock and and it's something of what W. Soren just said which is They're very samey factions right uh where Just like a lot of the line is kind of just the same stuff Like dock is a lot of chicks and bikinis just murder chicks and bikinis, right? Corn is a lot of just like barbarian dudes running forward with axes named blood something right who are all just like Muscley often shirtless dudes, right? Yeah So it's like the all for me and the all chick army, right? Right. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I hadn't thought about that, but yes Yeah, that's funny. Yes um The now what everybody else thought was meh obviously doesn't map to that, right? You get a very uneven spread in the in the the in the meh rating Uh personally, but when you look at a group you get a much more sort of You get a much more distinct trend line And I will say corn Was pretty correct a lot, you know, corn's pretty high up there and a lot of people thought corn was pretty Pretty milder road and it was um So not too surprising But a lot of people thought fire slayers were pretty like that everybody else thought fire slayers were pretty meh Which it actually reflects the positivity bias given that this is a five And their actual rating was below five, right? This is sort of people giving them extra credit Fellas this is dragging their score down except for fire slayers This is pushing their score up. This is their high end of their curve right Okay Oh, come on All right, I think you're I think you're back. I'm back. Yes. That was just a little hiccup. Okay. What were you gonna say tom? I'm sorry I don't remember all right Okay, let's keep going Quick quick let's let's spin through some individual army stats. This is what we've been chomping at the bitch Sorry champing at the bit for I apologize. Uh, we've been champing at the bit for right so, uh Okay individual army stats and I'm watching it my stream just went like Very bad. Yeah on quality It'll it'll catch up here in a minute. I promise everybody. I'm sorry. It's got to buffer it out I don't know why my internet is so bad right now. I I have No idea There's nothing at all different about what's going on and nobody's using a lot of internet in my house, but here we are Uh, okay, so it'll it'll catch up. All right. All right. Here we go Yeah, we're getting there. We're getting there Okay, so individual army stats. Uh, I want to start by looking at some of the cool some of the curves Um, because this this is interesting. So what you've got here is in blue throughout all these stats You'll have the oh, you'll have the army as rated on a personal and the red is the army as the group rating What do you think everybody else thinks?  I talked about the the positive activity bias being very much in effect uh In the in this so they're weighted average 5.39, but it really comes out when you look at the difference in the curve Right. Mm-hmm Where look at how Look at how loaded the lower end of their chart is 1s 2s 3s 4s all very filled out. In fact, they have a very flat trend line all the way across Right, right Uh Whereas like everybody else thinks the perception of how they were received is that they have this great curve trending toward sort of, you know Mostly positive at a 7. Mm-hmm Uh, so I find that very fascinating like this whole section of people is Much less positive about obr and like there there you go right Yeah, that's that's really interesting The yeah, so many in that especially six to I mean five to eight six to eight range In the in the group expectation Huh Nurgle much the same I so I put these two together because I thought they were two interesting examples of the same thing Right. So Nurgle's weighted average 5.76 Again, a lot of people thought that they curved out into the positive territory And they have more positive than like obr if you look at the top end of their chart the 8 9 10 They're certainly higher right. There's more votes in that area But they have a very aggressive low end of the chart as well Right, like they're one two three four and even five are quite robust, right? So, yeah, very interesting. Yeah 0.39 5.76 So Cool. Yeah. Yeah, that's fascinating. All right Let's look at the fire slayers shall we Okay fire slayers have the most Standard bell curve basically on what everybody thought of the group and the most de-escalating linear trend line right like Look at this like whoop Just straight down would be the line you would draw compared to what everybody thinks Right. Yeah, nobody else curved at the five point Right, uh Overall weighted average 4.39. I mean we've said it a hundred times But this one really brings it to like stark stark Contrast that like yeah, this wasn't a very well received army, right? Yeah Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, that's very evident from this And how much like how egregious is that that one of the first armies that they premiere was fire slayers? Yeah I mean obviously storm cast and and night or sorry not night hunt Or whatever and yes, but yes fire slayers is one of the early ones out of the gate. Absolutely It's fascinating And then finally slanesh Which I mentioned before also being like There what was fascinating to me here was just the unbelievable perception difference Right, right like people perceive slanesh as trending out very strongly at six to eight Right, whereas as a point of fact they trend out from four to six Right now there is what what saves slanesh and keeps it from fire slayer territory is this Right is that like people like me who like I rated slanesh 10 when I took my survey myself. I mean I Yeah Because it it just shows that like People will there there are like some this army really really hit for Let's call it till the nine percent of the population nine ten percent of the population, right? Yep Uh, yeah, so uh Erdill asked what's the graph for we're going through the results some interesting results of people's evaluation of the age of sigmar aesthetics From the survey that I posted up last week So what was your guys personal and group? Predictions for slanesh. Oh that it would be way higher than this I did not like this this very much surprised me very much. I would have been it would have been like a seven as seven personally or What's your number higher like personally I had like I had chosen like a nine or 10 on slanesh Okay, and then seven in the bench. What did you do? I think I was 10 for personal response and eight for group I really thought it was like a well-loved thing Right like I knew there were haters. I expected there to be a spike in the ones that doesn't that actually aligns well with my expectations because I know that there's people who um Uh that that really don't like the faction, right? And that's fine like but I expected it to still trend way higher Yeah Yeah, I thought it would work much more much more. I thought slanesh would spark much more bifurcated responses inverse belcher effectively Yeah, yeah I think I was around like six or seven personally and then seven or eight collectively But uh, yeah, yeah, that's a little surprising Yep Exactly Okay Uh, all right, let's keep going. So now let's look into some positive curves because this is kind of fascinating um So individual army stats the gets at a 6.98, right? These these are all by the way based on the personal stats So, um gets at the highest. This is our highest rated one, right? And what you see is that like yes people uh What ended up happening here is This army hits a lot harder on the 9s and 10s Then people predicted, right? That's what but that's what carries the whole faction way way up Right, so people predicted again more of like a 7 8 Curve But in fact there's tons of weight around 8 9 10 Yeah Oh, yeah, that's a cute. I'm that's a doubling Yeah, 151 to 76. Yeah fascinating. Yep Exactly the the personal rating jumps way way way up over the over the other version. Yeah Uh, so I thought that was fascinating night haunt uh average rating of a weighted average of a 6.74 Uh, same exact situation, right? People thought it would curve at like a 7 8 But in fact it was it was buoyed by this very very strong response of 8 9 10 where it's 9 and it's 10 both beat its It's group predictions. Yeah, right. Yeah Yeah, really interesting Yeah, people this was one that you at you asked like what was a surprise to me Tyler. Yeah, uh-huh. Honestly the gits being this high surprised me and the night haunt being this high Knocked me out of my chair like I was Shocked that people I did not realize people love the ghosty boys this much Yeah, like this army is beloved That's yeah, because uh, yeah, I mean the percentages have been Kind of middling with night haunt for for a while In the at least in the stats that we've got from LLV and company But the only people who think you can go venture those that love them. Yeah. Yeah Gits, I'm not at all surprised like I would have guessed gits and iron jaws number one Gits number two would have been my guess over all the factions I mean, I remember you guys remember when gits came out and it was like universal love Never seen that much universal love for an aos faction Uh, then we saw maybe again iron jaws was probably was was the first one But uh, yeah, they were right up there. Yeah, the only thing that pulled me off the gits train was the daughters of kane That dropped like three weeks later. Yeah What was what's so interesting about this one to me is that in both of these cases Like less than 15 percent of the respondents gave this army less than a five Right, either one. Yeah, right Like that is unbelievably successful to me Yeah, that's uh, that's a really cool one seeing that Yeah, that's that's I think knight on is a great example of some of the utility of this kind of data Like I would not have expected that just based upon A general sense of communal opinion on knight haunts. I would not have expected this data Yeah, I would have absolutely had a bias that this was not one of the more sort of You know community wide accepted armies, right as far as uh, uh As far as aesthetics go, but nope clearly in fact a big hit. So there you go Well that black coach, let me tell you Yeah, people love the black coach and and apparently people love mostly ghosts And oh and this is an interesting also like uh, a lot of people don't didn't love fighting 30 grim gas reefers or something Right, but that didn't seem to impact people's perception of the overall army Or by the way, do people love fighting maybe 60 packs of negative three to hit gobbos? Yeah, but again, yeah, so There you go. Okay. Uh, here's two more that I thought were interesting curve points. Uh, so ko What the reason I included ko in here is because they Crushed on the 10 Right Like there's more negative down there and that's what ultimately brings them down when you look at their sub five scores Right there. It's it's more like they have more than 200 respondents to the sub five score out of there So it's a more significant percentage, but man, did they crush on the 10 score, right? Like Like for those that Yeah, like they beat their polls here, right? Like this is sort of the the what do you think of the group would almost be like I've sort of combined a lagging and leading indicator here of sorts, right? Um, comparatively like what do you think people are going to think is effectively what I was asking there right and In this case ko crushed their polls, right? They were they were might beat expectations hard Uh, again very strong on the nine and ten honestly very strong from like seven eight nine ten They they really have just really really strong responses That tells me that like yeah, this army has endured despite years of often having just Garbo rules People really do love this army. They think it's awesome Yeah, I know Tommy you you had some critiques of the the new book for one of the hell it's worth I played a lot of ko over the last three months And played against them and man, I just love that new book and how they play With the focus on the ships and the mobility and the spelling the bottle tricks and Yeah, uh, anyway, I mean that's a longer conversation, but in terms of at least a nice core Um to center focal point, you know for that book and and how it's supposed to play It's it's been really fun playing against them Uh, uh, yeah, you're not going to co-sign that No, I just yeah my critiques are the same It's a messy book and they didn't actually solve the situation of the ko alpha strike Okay Yeah, fair enough. Uh, yeah, that's uh, that's wild. That's quite a discrepancy 138 to 54. Yeah Uh, so I thought that one was fascinating. I I have charts like this for all 15 But we're not going to go through all 15 Uh, this is the last page of this because you know, there is a limit down which people will stand us just rambling about this stuff So I tried to pull out the interesting ones Most of the ones I'm not going to talk about are just like exactly what you'd expect. They're pretty middle middling Yep, that's what it looks like Uh, s2d. I thought was an interesting one because this is a recent one. It's really a sort of evolution based on the new models Uh, you know there it's very much like a one step forward And I wonder how far off of something like s2d the lumen ether going to curve Right because the lumen ether like Like you can look at the new horse people and go those are updated silver helms. You can look at the new Uh spear dudes and say those are new elvish spearmen and these are new elvish archers and so on and so forth, right? so much like The cat they're they're a step beyond the difference in slaves to darkness um But I wonder how close they would curve to this Well, it's like obr. You can look at obr and go. This is the screaming. It's called catapult This is the skeletal, you know infantry The skeletal spearmen. This is the skeletal horsemen But it's like it is a step beyond It's a heck of a step like I would argue there's a few more in there Yes, like that's more like we're paying homage to the old stuff Whereas I think if you've got silver helms right now You could just take them off the shelf and run them as the new horse. I don't think like I think that I think It feels like it is a step beyond I Disagree and you're going to see lots of people running silver helms. By the way is the new lumen eth calvary Like if you want to you want a hot prediction. You're going to see some silver helms on the table I hope that I have a whole crate of silver silver helms Okay Yeah on the slaves of the darkness. Yeah, I wonder How much that's being influenced in particular by just Again the universal love for the chaos warriors and chaos knights and then maybe you know baron guard archeon I think rates pretty highly in general among folks as opposed to some of the more older kids like that Oh Yeah, I mean there's there's a bunch of older kids out there that don't do a whole lot for me personally, but the the news But all the new work right kids Oh, sure. Yeah. Yeah, I mean that's got to be pulling this faction up some because admittedly All those new work right kids are like Are just mind blowing right there. Yeah There even if they don't hit for me personally I would this is again where it talks about the you know the perception of the group I would have rated all those work right kids high and in fact slaves to darkness did get Is one of those ones that got a higher rating from me than than Then I personally voted it right Okay, so Cool, that's the army stuff. Let's look at comparison to turny stats So all of this is based on the last honest wargamer stats update. Uh, it's an aos 2.6 compiled by lov Uh, so this is the most recent data pool. He did based on this is the so when I say aos 2.6 This is the sense the f aq when's the winter f aq meta. Okay. Yep Um, so that's the stats I'm using here Uh, so first off I have them in weighted average order. So that's the first column you see there pretty straightforward And then you have their meta percentage their match win in their top 10 right And uh What you see is a non correlation Right like There's just like it's all over the place. I will say the top Now with iron jaws, I'm just counting it as the iron jaw stats Obviously big wall could contain iron jaws and does have additional separate those stats are separated in LLV stats. This is just iron jaws. So I'm counting this as people running pure iron jaws This is as close as I could make the comparison, right? Um, but you know when you look at sort of who are your big bads on this list right now being zinch and being ovr um Yeah, I mean they're both down on the the weighted average of what people think of the models But they but you know, they're they're performing highly in tournaments But uh, uh, and they have uh Decent like quite solid meta representation five and a half percent for zinch 8.5 for obr Right, but their scores don't What that means is that the aesthetics don't make the meta right Yep Like you can say that people buy models For their aesthetics and that may be true But that's not the armies that show up at events Right. Well, you've got it. I mean, yes like on a weighted degree right here, obviously is what we're talking about I mean four percent of the meta is gets right, which are the highest thing. It's not that far off But yes, it seems like because there's there's several steps you got to go through there yet Right, you have to ask yourself like are the people who get into armies just for the aesthetic Are they even taking them as often do those players represent an under share of tournament goers? Right our tournament goers by their nature more willing to follow the meta trends and to care Less about aesthetics, right? And to me this is some This is some evidence to that sort of long held belief because obr is third from the bottom on You know aesthetic rating right at 5.39 and yet they are Far and away the kings of the meta as of this Yeah, this review. Yeah, right. So there's a lot of people who probably aren't the biggest obr fans who are playing obr Yeah, interesting, right um And wait shout out to the fat middle right now. I'm looking at some of the meta ranges right now Yeah, we've got a pretty good meta still Yeah, it's pretty good. There's a couple outliers like zee outliers problematic and Again, I don't know if that's moved in the last Three weeks. So this is as of three three or 15 days, whatever. There's been more events So I don't know how much those new events would factor into that. Yeah Hearthguard pulling a lot of weight 63. Good job boys Good Very high match win and you know, certainly an outsized representation Uh for fireslayers, right being so low on the score and yet still having One of the higher meta percentages right at 4.31 Not the highest by far, but a higher one. So you're saying that rules are really selling that army Not aesthetics. I'm saying rules are causing it to bring people to bring it to a tournament to some degree, right? You can't you could have a very you that you can't say are selling it. No, that's a leap you can't make sales numbers Right and also There's a question of percentage Okay, so like what I mean there is you could have a thousand let's just let's just shrink it down to imagine There's a thousand people right who are buying armies in general Um to make this more simple. You could have 400 of them Buying gits armies, but only two of that 400 going to tournaments with them Right, you could have 80 people buying obr armies and 70 of them going to tournaments with them right So, you know like you what that's not we because we don't have the sales data You can't make that logical leap there, right? Right? Yeah, so gw The sales data will do the analysis for you. Sure. Happy to do some regression. Yep Daughters of canes still pulling a strong 58 percent. It's an old book. I don't know how they're doing it They're getting a new book here in a couple months. Let me advance it. Let me advance the theory on daughters, right? And why daughters have a 1.83 meta percentage representation right now. Okay Old book man. It's barely playable Barely playable chad graham shouts to chad graham I've been getting lists from chad for the last couple of weeks about how his army is barely playable He's having a he's having to get sisters on the table or heaven's sake having to get some mortal wound output I don't I don't know if he's gonna be able to make it. Sure. All right. Sorry. I had to get that out So let me talk about let me talk about a tale of two armies here gentlemen. Okay. Yeah So let's talk about doc for a moment doc has a meta percentage right now of 1.83 percent And yet a win rate of 58.1, right? So like they've and they've had nine top tens pretty decent I pulled top tens opposed to I could have done podiums or first second thirds, but top 10 seems like a good metric because Landing in the top 10 means you took a good list and are a good player Luck often influences whether you go from the top 10 to being in the top three, right? Yeah. Yeah So, um Doc has a 5.85 right They're they're quite middle and remember they were one of the kings of meth right Here is my theory. I am going to advance to you The theory is this even though They're such a winning army and they are like 58.1 Is a highly winning army, right? And that's been coming down slightly But they've they've hung around that 60 top of the fat middle for basically their existence I mean Right, when did they come out early 18? Yeah, March 18 Yeah, they came out like a month after or two months after gets Wow, that's wild and yeah, I've been been up there the entire time. Wow, right. So this is an incredibly consistent Oh I apologize the queens of meh. Thank you. That is absolutely correct. Thank you very much absolutely fair um So here's my argument We've we've wondered where did all the doc armies go because they used to have a much higher meta representation, right? Here's my argument that that that again, this is just theory. This is conjecture Remember when we talked previously about the meh and that you want extremes and people having high attachment type of thing Right. Yep doc Where it landed so middling because it was such a like it is such a meh like it very much curved to the middle People could put it down or pick it up as needed. Exactly Like people didn't have that strong of an attachment to it They played their games. They did well in the tournaments or not But eventually it just got boring and they weren't in love with it enough to keep with it And so it's met a percentage just keeps falling because it is the queen of meh Right Yeah, that's what I'm saying in love with the army. Right. You look at something like iron jaws Iron jaws has this massive. This is the tale of two armies. Like I said, let's compare that to iron jaws, right Iron jaws right now has a pretty decent match win rate 45 one Fine enough, right? Like it's it's fat middle-ish like in a perfect I think the the perfect world meta we would hope for would be that everybody falls between 45 and 55, right? Yeah, that's the pressure. You finally finally saying it. It took you a while It's out there. Okay. Good to know. No, that's the perfected world I think a good fat middle is 40 to 60 for what we're going to get in aos Okay, by the way, ben ben was talking about percentages in the last show on the storm cast. It was fantastic Oh, nice. It was yeah, like, you know, like what what the ideal range is and they're taking that into account And over that. Yeah, I love that show incidentally just getting an update on where things are over 40 playtesters He gave so many great details. Nice. I haven't got a chance to watch that one yet. I'll have to I'll have to give it a watch I was saving it for this weekend when I'm stuck inside and trying to finish up all these motorbikes um But at any rate iron jaws Had this 45.1 match win and they got a new book and a lot of people like them and they they're I think they're a really good army But there was a time when they were down below 40, right? Like before their new book and before sorry before the ghp rules update That's really when it happened, right They were way down below 40 And yet they consistently had a decent meta percentage and still do right clocking in it, you know Let's call it around 4% Much more than that by the way when you figure there's a lot of big wall armies also using these models, right? Uh, like big wall is 4% itself of the meta, right? And let's if half of those have you know our our iron jaw iron jaws focused forces, then they're up around 6% Again complete conjecture But the point being is that the reason people stuck with iron jaws Is because ultimately they were loved they were beloved and like they didn't care Right When or not they were like nah, I picked my pony dog This thing is my my boys and we're going to war son Right Right. Yeah 100% Yeah I feel like the trees were Similar a little less on average, but yeah, so many people who have stuck with that army Just thinking about the community over the past five years Iron jaws and subnet really stand out armies have been around for a while that have maintained a certain level of Of love in the community keeping the I mean, yeah having a 4% meta. That's that's fantastic Right It's so it's just an interesting thing to me how much this matters for You know, if I was in if I was to put on like my corporate sales hat Right or anytime where I've done sales you you talk about retention a lot Right. Now. I don't know that gw wants retention. Maybe they do. Maybe they don't Right. Maybe they actually don't favor retention because they want you buying new armies But I would argue that like clearly when you hit on this stuff When you hit on these scores and people have that you get this real high attachment Especially when you curve towards the 9s and 10s That people get dug in and stick with it Well, I mean here I am still painting dwarves fire slayers How many how many months how many years later? Yeah, years at this point.   I'm really like painting up arco units right now. There you go Yeah, yeah So it's just when I when I saw these stats and I thought about that as a sort of as a narrative now again That's just a narrative, right? I don't have science behind that But uh, other than like I have a lot of indicators, but that's just That's just me making inferences from the data, right? Mm-hmm okay, uh Honestly, Tom, I'd love to have a five minute chat sometime none of so this show or 10 minutes on Summarizing what your issues are with I know you guys did a long show But like getting to the core of it because I personally I do think that I don't know. Uh, my bias is to think that you're You're off In general on that but that's a whole other conversation. Yeah, we can have a chat Yeah, um, yeah fair enough For me it's as much that I I don't like the play style that I'm being forced into Yeah, I just think that like there's a I I think there's a disconnect between your sensibility and compared to The general sensibility but but I could be off on that as well Well, again, what I just said was I I Don't like yeah, yeah, totally that I like that the army could be perfectly competitive But if I don't want to play an eighth edition Um wonder style skirmish army. Yeah, I'm not gonna like it. Yeah. Yeah fair And I'm gonna and I'm gonna see all the ways that it could be be it could be be in the meta Yeah, yeah, all right Okay, okay, so uh, so now let's do some comparison to aos reminders So, uh, because this is also interesting to me. Obviously the tournament stats are sort of a again Like a lagging indicator and what they're giving an output of is the the cohort that's willing to bring these armies to matches, right? That's that set there. Whereas reminders is more of a Sort of a predictive analytics type of Uh, uh data set right because there's no barrier of entry You can go on there and just make lists Now assumingly most of the lists are being made like because you have to do a decent amount of work to get all your reminders out of there So assumingly these are people are mostly printing reminders for armies.  They're not just making lists Like this is not list builder. Correct. It's not it's not looking at like you'd get a you'd get a much wider set If you were on like uh, if scroll builder keeps all their lists like if you could pull all that data set, right? um Okay so, uh So here I thought it'd be interesting to compare the weighted average against the selection percentage In aos reminders against the meta percentage From l of these numbers and then look at a delta Okay So you look at so for example, let's look at night haunt Where overall 6.74 and they get selected a lot Right like they have a 5.2 of the aos reminder lists are night haunt Okay, so quite high not the highest but they're they're up there um, they're like in arguably tied for second place, right? um and they Their meta percentage is way lower Right like 1.91. It tells me like that delta is massive at 3.29 So what this right here tells me is that There's a lot of people who really love night haunt Right. We're playing playing night haunt They're just not taking them to tournaments. Exactly. Yep. Yep. Exactly. That's right, um Here's my night home pros Uh, yes for those who like the ghosty boys. We know you're out there. We hear you.   That's right. Yep. Okay. I I accept The people that I identify with way more than I anticipated So that's the what's the what's interesting here to me when you compare the red to the greens okay is the greens The selection percentage use a lot closer still not exactly accurate But a lot closer to what we would expect on ascetics, right? Like reds are grouped toward the top greens are grouped toward the bottom Because you look at obr or slanesh or fire slayers They're all being especially this is terrible with obr Like they still had five percent of the lists in in the uh in aos reminders. It's still significant They're in like fourth place or something, but they are still way outsized in tournaments, right? Right. Same with slanesh same with fire slayers. These are all things where People go. Yep. Those are good and have keyed into that even though we don't love the aesthetics Right much lower selection of people actually getting into them So this tells me that more of the players trying to kind of unpack what we talked about earlier where More of the players who have the army are taking it to the tournament Right. Yeah. Yeah, it's another indicator at that right, right Like a lot of people have night haunt and very few of them are bringing them to tournaments is what that tells me You know The people who have slanesh a larger percentage of those people are bringing slanesh to the tournament is basically what i'm getting at here, right? You know I'm sorry folks. This is awesome But I I think this is really really fascinating Uh, if you're not digging it, I'm sorry. You're missing out. It seems like people are digging it. So that's cool There's there's some that's good. There's some good stuff here Like this is yeah, this is really really useful information Uh add a add a couple more really is there And idk is also another one that jumped out at me right being almost two full Uh percentage points higher Right where again like a lot of idk players recognize that idk is good And you know, so an outsized percentage of the group of owners are taking it to tournaments, right? Um, there's not a lot of idk players who are just banging out lists and like taking it there That a lot of them are taking it to to the tournament if you're an idk player You're tending more often to take it to a tournament So or knight home. Yes. Yes So, yeah, there you go. I thought that was I thought that was kind of kind of an interesting Interesting comparative matrix there Yeah, yeah, that's really cool Yep Uh, yeah, so there you go. That's that's what I got folks That's the end of the end of the stat breakdown. All right. I'm going to minimize back. So put your clothes back on guys We're good 7.7 for stormcast that's uh, wow, that's the highest uh, they in aos reminders They are the highest number of uh, they're number one Yeah, I'm still five point. Yeah, that meta percentage has definitely dropped off over the last 12 18 months But uh, that's licks percent still pretty high. Yep What that tells me is that yes In fact, there are still a lot of stormcast players out there with stormcast armies who are making lists and taking them There's a there's a lot of people with you just running staunch cast at their local store and then That's happening. Yeah So incredibly disappointed. There was not a single goddamn dragon being played at Las Vegas open This year. Wow Seriously not a single one Yeah Uh, all right so so summary thoughts and and stuff like that by the way one of the questions people might have is You know this data set and this sort of preso that I put together or whatever I'll try to find a place by the weekend to To to store all this like see if I can get it up on Dropbox or something and share a link with everybody Okay, like I'll put it in a secured thing. So people can go get this data I don't care I'm more than willing to share the raw data and you're more than willing to go out there and You know do some of your own work or examination or whatever with it. Okay So There you go. Yes Um, so I will make this publicly available Um, and you can check my you can double check my figures in case I had a mistake in there anywhere I tried to be accurate, but look I'll admit this was a lot of a lot of stuff I was sifting through but I'm pretty sure I got it all correct. So There you go Um, there's a lot of like slicing and dicing data down in different ways. So Uh, overall, yeah, what yeah, yeah, I go. No, it's fine. I'll actually pause. I've talked a lot. So what do you guys think of all this? Yeah, well, I'm Curious for here. Here you start with yeah, your sense of some of the conclusions from this data Like what what do you think this all means? So what it tells me is a couple things like what I see from the summary Here would be my summary thoughts One for the most part and this was a question that came up a lot out of what tom was talking about of like I think maybe one of like tom made a snarky negative comment about aos models And I think that's what started all this off in a group chat.  I love it now that the lights went out behind you. Oh my god. I have yes It's wonderful. It's great. You are like you are a 1930s noir film right now I'm gonna I'm gonna reference this when I when I tell people I'm gonna take a screen cap of this And when I talk about painting in extreme lighting situations, this is the example right here Absolutely I'm still on brand with I got the cup rock in Yep So Yeah, I mean my snarky comment was that I think that when I look at the actual aos armies It feels like My comment was it feels like there have been a lot more misses than there were hits You see something like that. Yes Yeah, where I was saying that like when when we actually look at original armies That are native to aos with new product lines It feels like like to me there have been a lot more misses And I was looking at things like it was in light of lumen f and then obr And I began like looking back through the full new product lines And I was like, I don't know that I like a lot of these Yeah, and I think that this so the data tells me that that's that that is that that is a busted myth right because You know, when you look at this the only person who fell below the five point line, right through at least average Who's the the above average line is fire slayers, right? Um And and that a lot of these armies actually ranked in the upper five sixes, you know a couple sevens in there Sorry sevens is what people perceived them as which is just as valuable when you're determining this, right? Um And so what it tells me is that for the most part actually The aos launched armies have been quite successful Right people have liked them There is a clear miss in fire slayers. That's definitely in the data Uh slanesh was much less popular than I had expected it to be I like that. That's actually popular aesthetically popular. Yes um the That nergal is so marmite. I wouldn't have expected that like so john cheves in the comments said your conjecture about strong emotions equals sort of this ongoing higher meta representation doesn't hold true for nergal thoughts on that um Possibly because of the marmite. I I don't know. I mean, I it's it's hard to regress out individual facts like again uh, but I would say that nergal being so much more marmitey and having like much more of an inverse style trend line curve Means that its total population of people who love it was just less Right, like it doesn't look like iron jaws where it was tilted so far toward the top, right? Iron jaws was sort of this ideal army Where yes, it doesn't have a huge number of haters. Yes, there are some people who rate at ones But it leans way toward the top Right, nergal has a lot of top, but it also has a lot of bottom Right Yep, I would agree with that So when faced with this there just wasn't as many people fully on board to carry the meta percentage Through, you know bad rules or whatever like there was for iron jaws so Night haunt is way more popular than I expected like holy crap That blew my skirt up The warning there is for those of you Watch out will be the day that they get good rules. Oh my god. If night haunt get a kick butt book Right if they get some some real strong rules or something like that. Whoo Here to see the ghosts Flood the tables they will suddenly jump Right. Yeah in the same way you saw what I would expect to have happen There is is much like you saw with iron jaws Right where suddenly like iron jaws in the war clans were just flooding tables, right? Yep Yeah, definitely. Yeah So so I got distracted by the chat I may missed it I mean, do you have what's your sense of a baseline? Maybe you already said it and I just missed it, but in terms of these percentages, maybe you want to focus on the the collective average the collective weighted average as a an ideal baseline Yeah, I mean, I think what what that what it says to me is that when you look at sort of the overall weighted average It tends to fall at about six, right? Which says that overall these armies have been quite successful as they've been launched, right? They yeah, because I more positive than negative feelings about them, right? Okay, that's certainly my sense as well because when you're looking at a number of these that are falling in that range You know iron java silvaneth, etc Yeah, that matches Reality like my my sense of reality, but there were some that definitely stood out night haunt, especially That skewed more positive than I would have expected So, yeah, okay. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Yeah, it also tells me that destruction is very popular Right like people have generally liked what's been done with destruction gets very high Iron Jaws very high, right like the if if this new giant army ends up Actually being like a destruction type force, which we don't know that it could be anything Yeah, continue sure, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's not also destruction, right or has a destruction type aesthetic, right? Yeah, yeah Is that the the sort of destruction aesthetics are proving very popular, right? It tells me that We all have a the other the other big takeaway for me is that there's generally a positivity bias We all think that other people like armies more than they do that we think we're the outlier for liking something less Does that make sense? Yeah, yeah When in fact, no, we all tend to like these things about the same about the same lower than that Your opinions might not be that wrong if you're not extreme, right? Yeah I was just looking on on destruction right now ogre mottribe 6.86 percent in the meta Uh, so yeah, that's tracking pretty well. That's quite high And I mean, obviously that's a fairly low buy-in right now, especially if you're running the stone horn Which is uh, generally what you should be doing if you're wanting to win games But yeah Well, here's a great question there. Is that a missed opportunity? Okay, so like obviously we didn't survey on ogres, right? Yeah, but we know ogres came back in the meta real strong like maybe I'll do this again at some point Just with like a in some kind of way and I'll survey for the non aos armies, right? And we'll see if we can't hit the same statistical significance Um, because it would be fascinating to do a comparative to existing armies, right? Where who got, you know, no new models things like ogres And if if ogres also rate super high, which I you know, I don't know. I my my bias would be they would Right. They the destruction seems very strong Like people tend to like them ogres flooded the tables Uh, a lot of people kept, you know, had them around and kept those armies and we're ready to get back on the table um Then what that tells me is you missed a trick gw Right. That was a missed investment opportunity, right. They should have bought more uh They should have they should have made new overcuts Yeah, right because if you've got like right now what this tells me is If I was if I was gw and I was looking at this, I'd be plotting out my new gets release I'd be planning out like my supplementary iron jaws release, right? And you know that kind of thing Because I'd say there's a lot of love for this faction already. We already hit the mark, right? Right. We need to do more of what we've already done Yeah, give them more of what they love like if I was trying to say if I was thinking about what forces Do I want to expand this would factor into my decision making because this would tell me I've got a ready-made market The people who love gets an iron and iron jaw is a relatively small force. It's it's eminently expandable I mean, that's probably yeah the front runner in terms of this and it's been that for a long time Yeah, they've had so much love for so long that yeah, but but not releases So gw if you're listening hello, hi Uh, how you doing over there? Uh, if if you haven't already planned an iron jaws expansion Might want to fast-track that one. Whatever that looks like, you know, get that in the get that in the pipeline It's quite as possible. There's money just sitting on that table waiting for you True Yeah, 100% Yes, that's someone mentioned the mega boss on gorg ranta. Yeah I mean the the obvious model that everybody's wanted but you could go there's plenty of stuff you could add to that Um, what it tells me is that I wouldn't invest anymore in fireslayers let that like sometimes you got to let some fruit die on the vine Right like hey you Look that dog don't hunt. Okay, so I'm sorry. That's just what it is, man I don't know what to tell you Yeah, I mean it is what it is. Yeah, just let that wouldn't be like it's okay And it sounds like I've single-handedly I was talking to tyler about how many fireslayer like mohawks that I have Sure, um, I must have single-handedly like driven the fireslayer market Is I probably have like 250 to 300 mohawks That's wild man units with uh, like fireslayered units, so to say So It's funny. Yeah, so, um Yeah, as pointed out, uh, Keith just pointed out that yes iron jaws are getting a second underworlds warband, which is true Which yep smart choice there So absolutely. Yeah, it's a it's an excellent point. Uh, so, uh, there you go um and in terms of other More than said and now boom the next campaign book clash slash box is orcs versus the orcs Orcs in the all points versus night haunt Yes, weird Real winner of a box set there that'll sell Oh, man, I would buy that in a heartbeat if it's like blade gas, uh, or blade blade guys The guys, yeah Mm-hmm. Oh man but uh, so what about other prospects for for this events you and I We had gotten into a conversation last week about Yeah, looking at this more expensively You know in other questions that that could arise one of trying to assess How how might you be able to use this or try to go about assessing other variables like preferences and play style. Yeah, or preferences and Median model range or average model range or distribution of model range Where where do people fall in there? You know trying to get a little more of a semblance of you know, quote-unquote an ideal form for the age of sigmar experience Like personally, yeah, those sorts of things. I think there's either with supplementary data or stuff you could do from here I think you could so we've talked a lot before about the psychographic profiles of johnny timmion spike, right? right So there are also Uh aesthetic profiles Okay, so aesthetic profiles are melvin and vorthos and those tend to trigger when people like the sort of Way that the aesthetic all works together Does that make sense like the like so for example vorthos really likes it when they're sort of a a complete synergistic Uh rules alignment like it's a four four for four That does like a four damage effect and everything about it sort of flows. There's this sort of synergy, right or something like that It's a four four for four that has haste and when he comes into play can do four damage to target creature Right like that's a that kind of has this vorthos. That's a that's a that's a classic vorthos card Right because what what what what do you think is a good example of a faction? With that are we talking like seraphon with you know, like combos and synergies and sort of a sure where everything seems to align Like what it does on the tin and the rules and all of it in the play style Like you read about it and all of it seems to just function correctly synergistically, right? I think like seraphon has a fair amount of death story stuff going on like you could really You know, you can make a seraphon's unit really strong. You can make skinks really strong my answer is Okay, oh, would you say ko Uh, yeah, ko is probably another one. Yeah, absolutely obr and ko right like they're very vorthosy In that that like when you look at the thing and then how they function and the rules they have supporting them And the synergies they're out there It's like yep that all that all like, you know, they're all about paying the tithe And you put down this big nexus and it hurts people and they're these very ordered Phalanx-y type of people and they fight like that and they they rely on their unit commanders And their unit commanders have these rdp, right like everything about it seems to fit together The other side of that is the melvin, right? Oh, thank you somebody said iron jaws and yes, I agree iron jaws is also a good example of this um Melvin is when you have an aesthetic alignment between Sort of the the look of the thing and how it functions Okay So like if I were to look at the art on a on a card on a magic card And then be able to guess exactly what that thing is and does Like if I could get pretty close to the rules without reading the rules based on the art, that's a good melvin card Right Like negosh is a great melvin model Right you look at negosh and what he's doing. He's got all these books floating around him. He's up on magic He's this giant skeletal being you're like, well, I don't know.  Yeah That's exactly what you've got right so it could be interesting to expect to explore this from like Does the success can can some of this aesthetic appreciation be boiled down to When it hits in a melvin like fashion Right like And and and arguably that might be true like we could infer that but I wouldn't want I wouldn't want to say it because Intuitively you look at like gits and how they play Yep, feels pretty right like if I were to describe if I were to describe to you the army of gits and non-rules terms Right, just like the way that gits are in the world. Yeah Yeah, you're the rules wouldn't be that far afield from what you would probably guess in your mind, right? Same with iron jaws. Well, I assume they run across they're they're real melvin Right, like you look at them and you're like, oh, yeah, they run across the table and probably punch people super hard And you're like, yep, you got it nailed it Uh, you know night haunt feel like ghosts that should be popping up everywhere Like they have to pop up from the underworld rule and they all fly and you know stuff like that Yeah, so like if you take uh, at least I mean I haven't played daughters of kane, but when I look at daughters of kane, I see A fair amount of disappointment in terms of constraint constrained variety in terms of war scrolls and points and battalions and Hagnar or bust Being so dominant and so yeah that that affects my probably a lot of people's interest I would suspect if you're not just concerned about winning games and daughters of kane Whereas when I look at the models like the the actual potential variety there Right, it's solid But compared to the combination of Daughters have a huge melvin disconnect Right because you'd assume they'd be like glass cannon lightly armored murder machines and like yeah, certainly they're murder machines But the rest of that statement is not true I went on a rant on meff show that I think he published as a separate video Because one of my classic problems that I've always hated in the daughters kane army is why a white is the color and blood broadcast a plus one to save Yeah, yeah Like So let me get this straight the cauldron stoked with blood that you're offering as a sacrifice to your murder god Is kind of helps everybody be defensive No, no, if I like again, there's just such a melvin disconnect there, right? Like if I showed you that model and said hey this blood cauldron Dedicated to a god of murder affects all the witches around it. How does it affect them? You'd be like well, I assume help friends with the murder. Yeah drives them into a frenzy, right? Right, I think you got another show here going through armies. Which ones have the disconnect Which ones, you know positive correlation or disconnect in terms of yeah positive or negative Rating on what you would expect versus not Yes, I also do want to very quickly shout out alex butler in the comment in the comments. Yes, indeed I'm hoping that wasn't a mistype and you did mean spoopies because yes, they are spoopies absolutely Which I I'm I'm picking up that reference alex. I just want to get that out there Spoopies absolutely. Okay at any rate, uh, yeah, so I think there is it would be interesting to examine them from that kind of a perspective, right? Yep Yeah, I mean there's a lot of good data here like I said, I've got this survey thing now I could do them all as one date as one survey. I don't have to break it up into like every surveys like I did Oh, man, that'd be great. So So there you go If people liked this here's here's what I would ask if people liked this and thought this was fun and cool First hit that like button do that Second, I would love in the comments other things you think would be interesting to explore in the future Drop them down in the comments below once the show gets posted So I have a record of it because if you put in the chat now, it'll be very hard to come back to But I'd love people to drop in the comments, you know other things they'd like to explore either with this existing data or You know or other things you'd love to see survey data get collected on in the future It seemed like most people were pretty cool to do this Uh, I design a lot of surveys in my professional career And so I'm very sensitive to how the questions are worded. So I try to avoid bias in the questions I'm very sensitive to making sure they're fast Like my average complete time on each survey was one minute Which is what I'm aiming at right like I want people to be able to to do this quick I never want to take too much of your time. So I'm always aiming for like a one to three minute survey completion time at most Um, so I'll try to be always judicious with it. But if people like it then That's cool. Uh, we can we can do more like it's out there. I've got the freaking subscription We might as well use it and collect some cool data Yeah, definitely. Well, like I said, yeah We'll need to talk more about the play style side of things with this but personally don't have a good sense of what the communities Overall sensibilities are with preferred play styles preferred mode