Good evening and welcome. I'm Diane Meyerhoff host for tonight's candidate forum for the Democratic primary for Chittenden County assistant judge Tonight show is being aired live on channel 17 and streamed live on the channel 17 website We welcome your comments and questions. Please join the conversation at 8 6 2 3 9 6 6 Candidates joining me tonight are Suzanne Brown Charles Delaney the incumbent Connie Kane Ramsey also the incumbent and Zachary York. Thank you all so much come tonight. We appreciate it The ground rules for tonight's forum are the candidates will make opening statements of up to two minutes each They will then answer prepared questions also for two minutes each with a possible rebuttal We will go in alphabetical order. So for our opening statements We'll start with Suzanne followed by Charles Connie and Zachary So Suzanne tell us why you're running what qualifies you for the position and what your priorities are for the four-year term Thank you Diane. Thank you for hosting this this forum Ladies and gentlemen, I'm Suzanne Brown and I am an attorney I've been practicing family law for over 30 years Primarily in Chittenden County, but as well in other counties I'm also a mother of two sons who I've raised in Vermont and I'm a proud grandmother of Piper and I should tell you that I too have been divorced and have had that experience in Chittenden family court and Understand the stress that people go through especially when it comes down to issues of custody and parent-child contact Assistant judges play a major role in family court as well as in other areas But they do assist the judges in findings of fact Which the judge can then use when doing his or her opinion? I'm also a Rotarian Rotarians believe-in-service above self And I have been president of the Colchester Milton Rotary and have won many awards from my community service I've been on several other boards I've been on a board for Hadassah, and I'm on the board for local synagogue so I'm familiar with budgets and dealing with lots of people Family court is such an important role for people who are going through divorce and parentage cases and I believe that we need knowledgeable and thoughtful people there to assist the judge in making these very important decisions I'm also very well aware of case law and statutes Which change from time to time? It's not a common-sense decision You really should be familiar with the changing Vermont case law to be able to be of assistance to the court so I welcome this debate and Thank you for having me great. Thank you so much, and we are actually going to interrupt our opening statements because we have a call We do we have a call. Hi, you're on the air. Maybe not. Do we have anybody there line one? Well, wait, let's try to try to unhold them. There we are Hi there. Hi there. You're on the air. Do you have a question for the judges? Yeah, yep, you're on the air Hi, I have a question for Suzanne Brown. Okay, we're gonna have we'll have all the question for Suzanne Brown Okay, we'll have all the candidates that I asked for all of this. Yes. Yes. Yes. Thank you. Please do that Hello. Yes, I Think we're not it's not no we're not working. Sorry guys. All right. Let's go back where we were Charles opening statement I'm Charles Delaney. I'm your assistant judge in Chittenden County I'm an incumbent. This will be I'm running for my third term. I've been here since about 2010 Part of our job is administrative Maintain the county budget at current levels, which is about around half of 1% We're allowed to go up to 5% Without going to the voters, but I think in terms of being responsible to the taxpayer We've tried to keep a budget intact at times. We've had to find ways to create revenue to do that and With things changing and we're still doing that in the meantime We have kept up on case law We were certified in civil mediation Special court jurisdiction and uncontested divorce We had to go out of state for this to the National Judicial College in order to Do this and I'm proud to say in terms of keeping the public in mind We did it through foundation grants. It didn't cost the taxpayer money being mindful of the administrative part of of this job I've had experience in shepherding bills through the legislature And doing that had to do with a lot of civil right law In 2007 that was done and again in 2010 I Helped write the criteria for tribal recognition in the state of Vermont As chair of the Vermont Commission on Native American Affairs That put me in the purview and work with the committees in the legislature In doing that type of work, I was able to see how laws are passed But really I'm getting the intention of what the lawmakers had behind law in order to do that I also participated in 2014 in the judicial restructuring in the state Okay, I'm gonna stop you there Charles. Thank you. Connie opening statement two minutes, please Okay, thank you for having us Diane and we're happy to be here. I'm happy to be here So I am running for my third term for assistant judge I'm the co-assistant judge with judge and Laney and we've had eight years with only positive feedback For me and for him as well. I was I think it's very important to have family and local experience in this job. We spent a lot of time in family court and So I was born and raised here and I know the community well When the judges rotate, they are not familiar with the area necessarily so Assistant judges are the local connection to the area and I think it's I have two kids Polly and tagger and they I raised him my husband Jack and So I've got that family experience and then When judges Kali and Krakowsky retired in 2010 I decided to run and They helped me to Get this job and other people helped me and it's been going well and since then I've got eight years experience in the judiciary sitting in family court civil court and maintaining our civil court properties To the county properties eight years of training by the different State of Vermont and judicial judicial judicial judicial judicial college at Vermont and national judicial college Dedicated helping our community's families There's a lot of vulnerable people out there and they wind up in court because they can't afford Their homes and they can't afford the cause of living just keeps going up and they can't figure out ways to increase their income and I'm also dedicated to make sure and make sure the people Who are being abused are protected? Okay, the court stop you there. Thank you Zachary. Tell us opening statements, please My name is Zachary York Democratic candidate for county assistant judge. I was also recently nominated by the Progressive County Committee For the general election. I was born in California and I lived in central Vermont where I grew up in Montpelier Barrie and Cabot I graduated from spalding high school and then I went to Burlington College And I graduated with a bachelor's in legal and justice studies and a certificate of paralegal studies. I Learned under a lot of local attorneys during that time adjunct professors are primarily practitioners. So I learned with Many people who are experts in their field and I feel like that was a great education And that's when I first learned about assistant judges because part of my family law course was to sit in on Really from abuse cases to learn about how that system worked and the system is actually becoming more and more overwhelmed To a lesser extent these stalking and sexual assault cases in the civil division are also having an increase I believe that my training in College my training in you know general pursuit of education in the rest of my life and my experience has really let me To be an excellent candidate for this position. What's great about this really unique Vermont position is that? You get to be a layperson judge. You don't have to be a lawyer You can sit in on cases and not make a judge based on make a judgment based on the facts It's to me based on the law, but you make a judgment based on the facts So whose case is more persuasive which affidavits are you know more informative? What is the most compelling evidence? So that's especially true in cases where there's disputed facts So one side has an affidavit saying these are the list of things that are true and the other side has an affidavit saying We disagree with those this is the list of things that are true and when they have to have a hearing on those It's it's essentially who has the most plausible case And I feel like with what I've learned and what I've grown up with I would be an excellent candidate to do this Great. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you all We're going to go into our prepared questions again There'll be two minute responses and don't forget. We'd love you to call in 8 6 2 3 9 6 6 So tell us what I wouldn't start off with Charles will have you be the first person What's your approach to running an efficient and effective county courthouse because we've learned that is part of the job of of this assistant judge And how do you evaluate your results? If you're talking about the administrative end first that would be We come up with yearly budgets for the different departments and I have to say that you know it seems to be a rigorous process and doing that It's an uneventful affair really We get maybe three four phone calls from the different town clerks Wanted to know if the budget's gone up or not so that they can prepare their town budgets In that sense, it's pretty cut and dry in terms of the maintenance Maintaining a budget it takes four of us to sign checks and pay the bills So, you know, it's a good balance in terms of knowing the bills are paid. How much is paid? Following the budget, there's there's no play in that since there's four people and all those sets of eyes looking at it in terms of the courtroom itself I Feel that it's a traditional role in the state of Vermont Since day one we're in the state Constitution It was designed for lay people and the reason for that was was that? They wanted a person from the community who knew the local officials who knew people in the community To be able to have a better understanding when people came to court. What what was going on? And to be able to be an ally in that sense for them We discern the facts in certain roles such as relief of abuse orders There comes a degree of preponderance in it also and And knowing that our community I think we have an edgy a more educated sense of what's going on and We all have to agree on the facts before a state judge can make a legal decision so I think you know and looking at it that way it's like a small jury and It creates another form of balance the state of Vermont is unique almost unique in this There might be one other state that has such a role in doing it the reason why the forefathers? Wanted lay people to do this job Was because they had a distrust first of the king and the prosecutor and Then in early state government and federal government there was mistrust I'm gonna have to stop you there. Sorry. You can tell us in the next question Okay, we are talking about running an efficient and effective county courthouse. Connie you're up. Thank you It's been running well for eight years We like judge of the lane was saying we we work where we we work up a county budget. We ask The sheriff's department and the probate department and we look around the courthouse and see what we need to do for the Year and we stick to that budget really well and we hire good people to Work for us. We've got Anne Williams as a county clerk and Christopher Daner her as the buildings and grounds Contractor and then we hire John levy as a county treasurer and we do a lot of deli delegating We give them goals and we let them do their thing We had last some of the last goals were to make the courthouse more friendly so he painted the walls and put up some interesting stories for people to read and Made the passport office kid friendly And we of course the the the main thing we have to do is make sure that the that the courtroom is working well The lights are working and the heat is working and all that so and We are very good at keeping to the budget. I'll say that When the checks are written there are four of us have to sign off on them so that there's no Problem with that and All of our citizen and professional input has been positive over the past eight years. So things are going well Thank you. Zachary. Tell us. How would you run an efficient and the effective county courthouse? Sure, so it all begins with the the building itself a lot of it has to do with the county buildings proper So that is the sheriff's office Which needs some work and then there's the county court itself, which is on Main Street in Burlington It's a big beautiful federal building that was then given to the county government many years ago And in my opinion a lot of it has to do with ensuring upkeep of the buildings we have very old buildings that need You know preventative maintenance and and maintenance that we we plan in advance for To make sure that you know, there are no unexpected surprises, you know when it costs Thousands of dollars to run the air conditioning every month. You want to make sure that everything's going to be working ahead of time It's also important to make sure that the the county sheriff has everything they need So is the building up to code? Do they have enough space for all their vehicles? You know the the county deals with hundreds of thousands of dollars going to the sheriff's office and is it being spent adequately? So I feel like my my education my experience would lend me to be a good judge of how those funds are being spent and If there's a better way to allocate them Okay, great. Thanks Suzanne. Well, I'm going to answer this question from a different viewpoint We all understand that there has to be courthouse and other buildings that are up to code and bills paid and I don't feel but I'm sure that we can learn about the budget and so on but what's really important is there's not enough time To handle all of these cases in family court Family court is being overrun by people who for many reasons don't have attorneys Or maybe they can't afford attorneys and so they're trying to do their own cases and it takes a lot longer For that person to present their case if they're capable of doing it Then if they had an attorney, how do we address the overage of cases in family court right now? I think we need to do some training I think that it would be great if we had the Chittenden bar once a month Volunteer and go staff a clinic or an informational session That is open to the public if they are going to be in family court so that they can learn some important things About what is important in a custody case? What's important and I believe from abuse case. What do you need? If we have more educated consumers, I think it would help decide those cases number two What about for the attorneys who are trying these cases? Well there's a thing called a case summary form and I have used this many times myself as an attorney handling all these types of cases I would not need any training if I had this position But rather than having a protruded three or four-day trial you can have attorneys Fill out these forms on different issues They're presented to the judge to read a few days before the date and then you meet with the judge and The assistant judges and you get what's called a weather report Now unfortunately for some reason it seems that the court is no use no longer using these case manager forms So if they were to these case summary forms if they were able to do that You will find that more cases will settle and resolve just thus freeing up more time for the court Stop you there. Thank you. We have a question I'm and I think we'll dive since we're this is perfect timing actually so on what kind of relationship Should assistant judges have with unions does it imply a bias if an assistant judge or Candidate endorses a union Okay, and we are going to start with Connie Well, I'm I have to be very careful. I wouldn't I wouldn't be in the union because That that's bias And you they have to be very Careful to not be biased in this job I don't know what else to say but that we were not allowed to Even endorse I can't endorse a candidate. I can't give money to a candidate except for a fellow assistant judge I can't Go to a rally. I can't do anything As an assistant judge. That's one of the problems. I have with being an assistant judge It's one of the I love being an assistant judge But that is one thing that I have to have had to live with Could you can't do anything like that? It's in the cannons. Okay, exactly So I feel like this question is coming for me because I'm a proud union steward and I'm on the legislative council for my union I've been a member of the VSE a the Vermont State Employees Association for several years Well, not several but a few years at this point and I don't think there's a problem I don't think there's a problem at all Being an assistant judge candidate does not lend me to not be in my role as a lawful Political activity. So, you know, I I certainly think that it is perfectly acceptable for me to be in a union position. I Consults numerous different articles to govern my activity including the union contract Which I have bargained for and fought for and I will continue to defend for my co-workers Suzanne well once you become an assistant judge, you're not allowed you're not had I Know once you become an assistant judge You're not practicing in any other position. That is your full-time job from my understanding If I were to have this position be elected to it I would stop my my legal practice and devote my full-time to this job and I'm not aware of How a union impacts at all How the cases are tried and the decisions are made. So that's my opinion on that Okay, Charles Union activity As assistant judges lay judges, we are still under the same canons as the state judges and I would imagine anybody who's running for this position would fall under such rules, too. I We can't endorse unions. We can't endorse institutions candidates for other positions Those things are reserved Probably for other candidates and other types of positions If a case came in front of me be it a union case I would have to and I took a stand before that I would either have to recuse myself or not be involved with it to to begin with not to show in proper court and I think that we have to be Mindful of this position whether we're running for it or whether we're sitting in it now not to show bias That's part of the canons that I have to follow It's not a matter of personal opinion about what I think about an institution or a union But if cases come in front of us, we have to be show an improper Judgment and we can impugn the court Once that's done then there's then there could be appeals and a like So in order to do our job We have to steer clear of these things and keep our opinions to ourself Okay, thank you and thanks for the caller or if the question came from I just add something We can do everybody can have another minute. Sure. Just to clarify I've I've been a union steward and on the legislative council at a pride for my I am co-workers that have pride for my job at a pride of being a state employee and if Being a judicial candidate and a judicial officer conflicts with that. Obviously, I would step down I am well aware of what you need to recuse yourself with when you are in a situation as a judicial officer if you are a relative of one of the parties and in a certain extent or if you have a Prior relationship with one of the parties for an example one of the judges I work with he informed the parties in a case that 20 years ago he represented one of the parties a corporation was that a problem with anyone in the courtroom and It wasn't so that the hearing continued. So I'm well aware of Being a judicial officer means recusing yourself from things you would have a conflict with and I would be prepared to do that Okay, Suzanne. Do you want another minute? Oh, no, thank you. I do Well the Charles first another minute or no pass. Okay Um well, I think it's great that you're doing the work for the unions, but the canon state that you're not supposed to show bias in any way and most people would would Resign before and it announcing their candidacy so Anyway, that's what I think like we can recuse yourself, but It's still shows bias. Okay. Let's move on Do you support the use of mediation as a way to resolve disputes outside of the courtroom and we're gonna start with Suzanne you're gonna start. Yes. Well several years ago the Judges were given the authority to order This is the main judge to order mediation in cases and And Quite frankly, I think mediation is a good idea in certain situations it seems to work very well in parent-child contact cases and in custody cases you can take all of the antagonism and The problems that the two parties are having together and take it out of the situation Have them meet with someone who knows Certain family law principles and have them discuss more kindly what they believe is in the best interests of the children So and I personally have mediated and have had my clients go to mediation There are however some cases that are not necessarily good for mediation in my opinion And that has to do with the issues of financial support, which is called spousal support. I have found that typically When women are asking for spousal support or seeking spousal support because they don't have Earning significantly to support themselves that they don't fare as well in mediation as they would in court So I don't advise Clients to mediate that type of issue There is one thing you should be careful though However, if there is a relief from abduse situation where one party is intimidating the other party and And they feel they can't represent themselves well and they're intimidated that is not a good case for mediation Okay, great. Thanks, and Charles talking about mediation So of July 1st 2017 state judges were allowed to suggest mediation for certain cases I think mediation generally is a good idea because it empowers the people involved To come up with their own decisions For their own conflicts as opposed to a state judge saying this is the decision It allows input real input by the people involved On the county level we got certificates in in civil mediation and so did the assistant judges in Franklin County We had a bill In place so that one suggestion was was that maybe they could go down to the hall and Discuss and agree to mediation and to try and facilitate that Another bill that was done was H 849 Which is to help alleviate the burden of all the other court cases that we have For assistant judges to do status conferences Reset family motion Hearings those things and it's been difficult Mainly from the state level and from the attorneys because they don't they see it as a power struggle between Lay judges and state judges when in fact we could really help people Who can't afford attorneys who have a hard time in court not understanding the process? We can be there for them if we're allowed to and this is something that will continue to work with and make these changes as As we go forward great. Thank you Connie use of mediation. I love mediation as a way to have families Solve the disputes. It's much better to have them work things out on their own and You know to put through compromise and all of that instead of having the court impose restrictions on them If they can work it out themselves then it's much better to For them to follow they've had some input into it and the court system is really a last resort So we have started in the past year We can actually order people to go to mediation and then if they still can't work things out Or they can work out most of their problems and then and then they can come back to court for the last few things But hopefully they can work it out all because court should really be a last resort and not anything further and Like Charlie a judge Elena was saying we did go to Reno and get 40 hours of mediation training So we don't use that because that also is against the canons, but It's nice to know how to do it anyways because it teaches you how to talk to people and It's useful, so thank you. Okay. Thanks Zachary use of mediation So I believe that Mediation is incredibly important especially in civil cases Oftentimes what's happening is local attorneys are just emailing back and forth and they've never actually met each other We have quite the saturation of attorneys in Chinden County, which it could be a blessing But also has you know attorneys who never really interact so getting people face-to-face with a mediator is actually very useful I for the past few years have been in charge of the foreclosure and landlord-tenant dockets at the judiciary in the civil court and I Have been referring cases to foreclosure mediation that whole time law changed a couple of years ago after the financial crisis where people if they're the primary If it's their primary residence, they're entitled to request foreclosure mediation And if they don't request it initially they can request it later even up until after a judgment order issue So it's really a fantastic system. I couldn't speak more highly of the Vermont bar Association, which coordinates the mediation service with us and The attorneys who are mediators do really wonderful work it saves a lot of people's homes and it saves a lot of people a lot of heartache and I couldn't endorse it more Well have a response Doing this job for 30 years. I know that nine out of the ten cases that a lawyer has and Typically are settled If the lawyers were to try every single case that they had it would be impossible to get court time So we have this small percentage of cases that for whatever reason The attorneys with their clients try to work on an agreement and they're not able to do that for some reason I Find that when the clients know What the factors are that are important let's say in a custody decision then they can go and mediate and Understand how to make their case so to speak to the mediator The mediator is not there to inform the clients of their rights or of the law The mediator is there to get the parties to agree So there takes a lot of preparation many times for these parties to go to mediation And I've had many successful results where I thought the parents would never agree Let's say to a shared custody agreement and the mediator was able to pull it off, but I want people to understand that You really can't mediate without knowing the important legal statutory requirements That would affect a custody or relocation case and if you mediate without knowing that you're really hurting yourself Okay, Charles. Do you want to say something further about that? Yeah To me it's not About necessarily a technical aspect of the law. It's about the understanding of how people feel What they feel that they have to gain or what they feel that they're going to lose and To be able to address that directly with people So that they are comfortable enough to talk about that in a setting towards resolution of a situation Most people especially the ones without attorneys, they're not thinking about the law They're thinking about how can I get through this? How can I keep my home? How can I keep my child? those types of things and Yes, there's a financial aspect to that But to have people understand that you know you can do this come up with your own decisions if you're able to mediate it A mediator is basically to me as an organized referee and To be able to make both parties feel comfortable enough to be able to at least discuss their point of view about it and to come to a resolution So that they can have a stipulation and come to court and say we agree on it The judges sign off on it, and it's a beginning not just an ending for people, but a new beginning And if we can do that for people, it's the best resolution possible Connie I just have a little story about that There was a mediation case, and they could decide everything Except for who got the family dog and so the judge Katz it was judge Katz he said okay, who wants the family dog and who has the children and Children were children were with the mother and the fit the father wanted the family dog He goes okay You go talk to your client and tell him that he needs to call his son and tell him that He cannot the dog is not coming home tonight And so he went and told his client that and came back and he said we have an agreement So it's a little Anyway that was I thought that was nice story Okay, one sec. We're just gonna like Zachary have a chance at a further rebuttal of this Just to add that one of the other things that the civil division does is In complex cases that require a lot of discovery Which is the parties gaining information from each other before the trial happens? They fill out these forms called alternative dispute resolution Reports they're called ADR reports and what they do is they set out a timeline for when discovery will be completed When when motions that would dispose of the case for one side or the other would be filed and when the trial ready date would be and They also have a time for when mediation would be completed and I think this is just a great practice I I'm very happy that the mediation statute is the way it is and I think it should continue. I Just want to make a point if I may sure that just because And I'm and I'm really gearing this towards family court. I've seen this many times. I Just want to get get my case over with I just want to get out. I can't take this stress Just because the parties have an agreement doesn't mean that the agreement is fair and equitable and in fact the judges have a legal duty to review agreements to make sure they are fair and equitable and Let me tell you I have seen some judges and in some in some points are not you that's the system judges but prior system judges actually say I Reviewed this agreement. I don't think it's fair And they have not accepted the agreement and they sent the parties back to either get some legal advice or to Renegotiate so to speak an agreement on its face. Does it make things fair and reasonable? Yeah, I mean most state judges on occasion will send it back But as assistant judges, you know, this is where we've come in We don't argue these things in front of people on from the bench Usually sometimes we have some very interesting conversations in the chambers about these things about what is equitable about what is fair Is this the right thing to do as? opposed to what the legal terms are in it and At times, you know, we've had vocal arguments This is the reason why assistant judges are there If two assistant judges disagree we can overrule the state judge and they cannot make a legal finding on it and That happens on occasion not all the time But the the chambers and these conversations do persist Part of our job too is is that we do read the dockets. We do read the stipulations We do understand that who the parties are involved and what's at stake and we take that Looking at them as people about what is the best possible outcome not just for them usually there's children involved and In spite of the arguments that the parents the adults are having what is the best outcome for the children? You know, these are the real stakes Connie I was gonna bring that up, too the best thing is that the children is kind of our mantra and That's what I would be most concerned with and I think most mediators know that They would only accept a Negotiate of something that was in the best interest of the children Hopefully and maybe once in a while something squeaks through but that needs to be tweaked a little bit But I think mediation is wonderful. I really I think it's great and When people can work out their own problems and set their own visitation schedules, it works out better for everybody exactly I'm a child of a divorced household, so I'm well aware of relief from abuse cases and domestic divorce cases so just from the child's perspective, I definitely got an education in that when I was very young I Thankfully was treated very well by the courts. I was treated very well by both parents and Everything is very good now, but I think the the family division is one of the most difficult divisions to work in because it is the most personal of I think it is one of the most personal at the very least because it is Someone who you are blood with who is now wrong doing some horrible way and how do we move past this in an equitable banner and I Believe my my experience would be helpful Thank you We've actually talked about pretty much all the questions. I think at this point, but I'm going to ask them anyway We'll go back over them We talked about some people cannot afford attorneys especially in domestic cases such as divorces and Issues with children How how can you help people better? Represent themselves and I know we've talked about mediation for sure. So that's when we have there But are there other things that that you could imagine doing in your four-year term? And I also I wanted to be clear too before I ask that question is that there are two seats We have four candidates in two seats So you will vote for two boxes when you go to the polls because that sometimes that's not always completely clear for folks So I'll make sure that people know that we're not running against a probate judge and you're not that's tomorrow night We're going to talk to probate judges. Some people think that we're running against Greg Glennon and yeah Yeah, so we have two separate. We have the assistant Chittenden County judges and then we have the probate judges and there's only I think one probe one probate judge or two There's one. Okay, so there's two you guys and one of the other Okay, so just so we have that clear for everyone for everyone was watching Okay, so we are going to start with Charles. Tell us how you think we can help people better represent themselves There there are some other institutions out there, they're you know from our law line Such organizations that can be helpful I think that there's also training that can be involved in Relief of abuse cases as an example. There's a step program It's called they used to be women helping battered women before that they come to court on Thursdays in family court and Sometimes show up on Wednesdays in civil court stalking cases and Their experience some experience of just being in the courtroom and seeing is helpful to the clients involved I do think it would be further if they did get help from the Chittenden Bar Association They are not their advocates in terms of the sense of being there for the person in the court So they're not steamrolled so that they're not fearful but to have a better idea of what the The idea and the intent is behind this would be most informative for these people To me this is a vacuous Thing, what do you tell somebody who doesn't have an attorney who has just a basic idea of what their right is? Most people want to be heard in court And if they feel like they're stifled or they weren't able to get their side of the story out I think that's a failure of the court system And I think that you know anything that we can do To help people feel more secure in themselves and in their own rights as a person a human being To come forward to be able to say these things in in the courtroom would be most helpful Because it's not always what said it's what isn't said Okay, Connie how we can help people better represent themselves um what I try to Help them by at the pre-trial conference Some people will think they don't know the rules of evidence and they'll think that they can enter a letter or something like that and I'll make sure that they know not always I don't always tell them But I pass a note to the presiding judge that They can't you know they have to have the person there to testify they can't just Suzanne knows what I'm talking about They can't just bring the letter in that some Could be that's hearsay could be from anybody The other thing is I if they're at the pre-trial conference make sure that they know What the what the threshold is like if they want to change their visitation schedule or they want to move and Bring their children with them. They need to prove a Real and unsus un Forseen change of circumstance And they don't know that sometimes and that's what they need to prove before they can change anything so I'd like to see if I can make sure that they get all the information they need and It's on the website maybe If they did a little homework, they'd be better off, but a lot of people don't even have computers. They're you know So anyways, I try to help them in any way I can Okay, Zachary how to help people represent themselves better So the thing I can draw on the first is in my time with a judiciary I've run the landlord tenant docket, which is a Very quick paste docket where you have landlords who haven't been paid rent in months And you have tenants who either couldn't pay or the place was inhabitable so they haven't paid One thing that a state judge did was she sent out a letter to the bar And she said we want to have people come in and have a clinic we have all these renaissance cases It's the it's the most likely hearing for these people to show up at Why don't we have members of the bar come in with members from Vermont legal aid law line Vermont volunteer lawyer project to sit in on these 10 15 minute hearings and advise the Litigants of what is happening what this means if they fail to abide by the escrow case And what the you know ramifications would be they also argue if the litigant says, you know This place had bugs and it was mold and it didn't have any heat if it wasn't habitable Then they don't need to pay rent for it. There are there there are statues that govern this So I couldn't commend this was judge Helen tour who did this I couldn't commend her any more for starting this program She recently started it up in Rutland County a few months ago Addison County before that I Don't see why we can't have a program like that for relief from abuse cases not necessarily representing them in court proper But maybe having a clinic ahead of time right now They have a video system where you go in and you sit in you watch a video explaining the proceedings explaining Who who the judges and what what each side does and you also have advocates there? Which is very helpful, but why why can't we have an extra step? I think we can do more Okay, and Suzanne here's a novel idea that hasn't been tried and shit and in court And it's been tried in Franklin family Franklin family court And I'm sure there's other courts that have done this with regard to families problems. There's so many people who cannot afford an attorney and What if we had a Reach out to the bar to the attorneys to say we would like to get volunteers To come once a month from a set period of time To talk to people who are having some cases in family court and try to give them some general advice Try to answer their questions. This is done in Franklin family court, and it's a very effective program Why it's not in shittin in family court. I don't know it's not in the Bylaws of what an assistant judge should do but certainly we're not precluded from Suggesting this type of program and reaching out to the bar I'm a strong proponent of that. I've done a lot of cases pro bono meaning that I'm not charging I've also given free consultations to people so that they can help themselves in court if possible And I'm reaching out to the bar here to say step up Try to help some more people who don't have an attorney and give them some advice because these are the most important decisions of their life custody contact finances and That is my idea Thank you. We are we've got a time for a quick one more question, and then we'll do closing comments so I'll give you about a minute and This is yet another activity of a side judge is the participate in setting the budget for the sheriff's department So tell us should that continue to be a job of the side judges or not and we're gonna start with Connie Okay, well we've been doing it ever since I've been there and the sheriff is a county entity and we house them we pay for their Department building and we pay for their training and we pay for their heat and all that And I think it's appropriate because they do good work for us and they protect us and they do prisoner transport and I think it's only right for us to support them in some way They got other money from the state and they did have contracts. So it's not just us. I give them money We don't give them very much money I mean, it's just a small part of our budget, but we do get them some money Okay, and we have a question from the audience. So we'll take a quick break here and please so I was at a Political gathering a county candidate gathering a And the only the two can the two incumbents were there And they were speaking about their job and it was fairly well received and then the probate judge mentioned that he sits in cases with them and was very happy with the performance and lawyer in presence Also sort of mentioned the same thing from the other side. So I guess specifically for the two challengers maybe What was the impetus and what do you think you bring to the table? That's not there already in this position and maybe sort of the same question for the Incumbents, so what do you bring to the table? That's not there already great. Thanks. I'm exactly want to start with you for a minute Please sure so I am like I said I graduated with the bachelors and legal and justice studies and a certificate of paralegal studies so I have a lot of experience with Reading the law. I understand this is not a law reading position, but I would certainly bring that Perspective I think more than anything I don't think I have anything bad to say about anyone on the stage. I wish them all well I just think I am an excellent candidate for this position I think I would be good at it and I think I would enjoy it. I You know do what you love kind of thing I couldn't think of something that would interest me more every single day So in my current work, I read affidavits. I read motions. I read motions for summary judgment, etc And I have to figure out what we do with them and when they're ripe and What happens next and it's only logical to me to also then go into the judicial capacity Why not? This is something that I can do without going into Tens and tens and tens of thousands of dollars and additional student loan debt and it's a way I can serve my community and I would really enjoy it. Thank you. Thank you Zachary Suzanne you're next well I guess I have the most legal experience or experience in court And that's where this job is at. It's in court I do practice other areas besides family love, but that has been my primary focus and I didn't go to law school the conventional way I have a master's degree in education and I and I've done various other jobs besides being a lawyer but I found that This is a great way to help people and Unfortunately, I have seen Cases where perhaps the outcome or the decision was not fair was not equitable was not correct But the parties don't have enough or the I party doesn't have enough money to appeal it To the higher court and so they are so called They have to abide by that decision I don't think knowledge of the law hurts a person in doing this job I think it helps a person understand all the different parameters that you have to look at and In asking questions of these witnesses and of the parties to get to the prime issue What should be done for a parent-child context schedule? I'm gonna stop you there Charles You know this position traditionally and was made for lay people The candidates running, you know, they're learned people But it was also life experience Put into this and it was exactly that To come up with fair ideas of what is fair as an example that was brought up parent-child contact parental rights and responsibilities You know, these are things that we deal with day in and day out It's not just the the law that's involved. It is you know a preponderance What would be best in this situation? That's why we're there That's the job that we do. We try to be a more human aspect to a courtroom setting which is all about the law and procedure and That's that's why we are there Thanks, Connie. I think what the Questioner was alluding to is that everything is going well and why change it? So I agree with that. I think things are going well and If you like you get somebody that they don't get along with The two assistant judges have to get along Rouser's trouble. Historically, it's been very bad thing and We get along. We're very different people, but we work it out We see things from different points of view sometimes, but you know, it works. It works very well and There's no really reason to change. I think we should just keep it the way it is and It's we've gotten such we've gotten glowing reports from everybody that we work with that the courtroom people the lawyers the judges Everybody's happy with our performance. So I think we should keep things as they are. Okay. Thank you We have another question from the audience And I wanted to know is You know, how you feel with your legal experience as an attorney Your experience is important for this position How do you feel it's important for this position? Well, I would like to tell the audience listening that there have been other lawyers who served as Assistant judges and have done the job well and knowing how to Get certain points across to make your case clear to negotiate These are all things that I have done in my 30 years of legal experience and quite frankly There's always room for improvement and there's always room to try some new and different things. I Too have been supported by many of the judges and my clients Saying gee, I'm so happy with your with your services. Have you ever thought of Doing something and becoming an assistant judge or a judge. So While I respect the jobs that the incumbents have done it can be better Okay, I think we're going to talk about the importance of legal experience for the job Charles. I Think the legal experience if we're talking strictly about that, you know came from my life experience. I Shepherded a couple of bills to the legislature. I was not elected. I was appointed Chair of a state commission on Native American Affairs 2007 it was s1 17 that we shepherded through and it had to do creating Abinakis as the original minority that way they were they could receive federal Indian education and health monies That was a start of that Later on in 2010 s222 Which we came up with a criteria for tribal recognition which ended a an argument about who an Abinaki was on the state level between people and On the tribal level in terms of membership It ended all that all these arguments and there was a lot of racial arguments that came and involved in that from the greater public and it ended these arguments and It was a way to go forward in a positive manner and in dealing with these things, you know That's why I came back home Chittenden County Was able to do this on a family court level and in civil court And I and I'm doing the same things today Practically in working with a smaller group of people judges Court administration and the rest of it. I wish that they would allow us to do more when I've suggested The bills and then include land landlord tenants also They they they wonder why assistant judges want this kind of power. It's not power If we can assist the state judges And doing these things in a courtroom setting the clerical work that gives state judges more time to write Their findings we are overwhelmed there Connie and the question was Who's about the importance of legal education experience in this work? Oh, yeah Well that can sometimes be a problem in 1994 assistant judge was elected and she was a lawyer and The term starts in February, so it was 1995. She started in February 1st And within a month there was a petition from all the assistant judges all across Vermont to have her removed I don't know what she did, but I don't saying that will happen with you But within a year she was gone She had to resign because of the Supreme Court ended up getting involved and all of that It can be if you can take your judge your lawyer head off and Just just sick to the facts then I think it would be work out, but that might be hard to do sometimes Anyways That's what I have to say about that. We'll come back if you want let's go to Zachary. I Think legal education in this position is important, but it's as the Constitution states It's it's not necessarily requirement The the assistant judges are in the statute. They're in the Constitution as layperson judges So it's I think it's valuable. It can only be an asset I'm not aware of what happened in 1994 with that assistant judge, but I Find it difficult to not have a Benefit from having someone who has some legal education on the bench in this layperson position I'm well aware of there have been you know 28 assistant judges in the state currently and I'm not sure how many of them are lawyers But I believe the majority of them are laypersons and if there were issues Then I'm sure it would come to light I don't really have anything else to add to that. I suppose I'll give you a half a minute Imagine that knowing what factors go into making a custody decision Wouldn't help in helping to Figure out what facts need to be brought up to reach that threshold I've received a lot of encouragement and praise from many judges whom I appear before because I've done so many difficult and contested cases and If it was common sense You wouldn't have laws. You wouldn't have statutes. You wouldn't have case law it's more than common sense and We are there to help make this process perhaps less emotional a little bit smoother a little bit more efficient and I am certainly proud of my my many years of legal experience Plus having used the system myself and going through a divorce. Thank you Okay, great. Well, I'm unfortunately we don't have time for closing arguments. I'm closing statements. Sorry. I've got the lawyer thing going I apologize for that, but we had questions for the audience and phone. That's that's great I'm really glad that folks are able to call and we really appreciate your calling in Want to remind everyone you can vote now vote early at your Municipal or a city or town hall or on primary day, which is Tuesday August 14th And again, thank you all so much for joining us tonight and thank you


The following is a presentation of TFNN, the morning markets kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN Wednesday morning, 9.06 a.m. as we come into Fed Day folks, announcement 2 p.m. Eastern time today. Press conference at 2.30 to follow. Markets accelerating off of the lows we had yesterday. Make a low of 38.43 at about 1 p.m. Eastern time. We're up about 50 points from there. You're up about 20 points from where we were at the close yesterday. S&Ps inching towards 3900 right now. NASDAQ 100, we're at about 11,971. You were as low as about 11,830, so you're up more than 1% from the lows just yesterday. Dow up 136 points right now, 30,937 in the Dow and the Russell, up by about 12. Bitcoin back above 19,000 this morning, 19,225. Crude up a buck 40 at 85.36, you've got the gold contract right now. Up $10 at 16.81. We jumped to notes and bonds on an all-important Fed Day and you have the 10-year right now. Positive by 3 ticks, but you see the give back right there, even in the last, what is that, half hour or so, the 10-year trading lower by about 5 or 6 ticks right now.  We're talking about yields, man, 3.555, 3.56% almost, the yield on the 10-year as we come in right now to Fed Decision Day and we jumped to the VIX Volatility Index right now, 26.91. We were as high as almost 28 when you had those market lows overnight, 28.45, the highs of Friday morning. We jump around to the action right now and let's start it off with a headline. Time to hike and hammer home hawkish message, say that three times fast, right? The dot plot forecast, now this one's an interesting one, folks, how long are those dot plots going to push things out? I read one article this morning talking about restrictive policy might be here through 2025. Restrictive policy through 2025, that's a long time from right now, man. Prices will hone in on the policymaker's projections of monetary tightening in the dot plot for year's end and 2023, I mean, the shorter duration that you are out, the more accurate they're probably going to be, pricing in rates peaking near 4.5% next March. But the Fed, they've been a vague about their terminal rate plans. When are they going to end? How long are they going to stay there? They're probably going to hike by 70 basis points. Right now, 20% chance of 100 basis points coming at you. You got different people though, Robert Dent of Nomura, he's going big. He's saying that's actually the likely outcome, which would put it over 50%. At the last meeting in July, Powell left the door open to such a move. We would not hesitate to make an even larger move than we did today if the committee were to conclude that was appropriate. What he's always been saying all along, folks, is that he's leaving everything open. He's going to let the data decide everything, which is why that CPI data was so important when the market accelerated lower on the Tuesday CPI data. Now, FOMC may project slow growth, higher unemployment. When you're talking about where you are, now 2022, let's just look at PCE, or yeah, PCE inflation and core. 2022, 5.2%. They're looking for some pretty dramatic come downs there. In terms of PCE, you're talking about 2.6% by the year forecasted growth in the Fed's goal, PCE, 2.6%. You look at the core number, PCE is at 2.8%. Fed funds rate, well, you're talking about barely waning in terms of, we're talking about a number of 2.5% in 2020, that's longer term, yes, 2.88% is where you would be on that number for 2025. It's almost tough to digest how high the percentages could be for how long. Yeah, so the updated summary of economic projections is going to include the policymaker's first forecast for 2025, so that's part of the discussion there is what they're going to talk about. Well, most of the investors will focus, will be on the rate forecast for this year and next because everything can change so dramatically. Projections may also show the FOMC expects to keep rates higher for longer, with rates coming down only to 3.6% in 2024 and 2.9%. This is the Fed in 2025, I hope the economy is doing well if they're still at rates at that level, and you're talking about almost three years from where we're at right now. Yeah, with inflation persisting, the Fed could project inflation returning to its 2% target only in 2025, I think it's going to be a real low slide, I think it's going to be a real low slide, okay, 2%, in terms of the final 1% from 3% to 2%, from 4% to 2%, nonetheless, it's going to be a slow one in 2025 is not out of the realm at all. It's likely to reiterate that recent indicators of economic growth have softened. I would say so, man, you got some big numbers that just came out in terms of that CPI number from the last time that you had the Fed out there. They've stepped up its shrinking of its 8.8 trillion balance sheet to an annual pace of 1.1 trillion. Some Fed officials have favored the sale of mortgage-backed securities as part of the effort. There's going to be a lot going on in the press conference, man, and the one thing I will say is sometimes this market has a habit of getting ahead of a Fed decision. I think I even saw a headline, maybe I haven't pulled it up. You take a look at the daily, sometimes the accelerations have bottomed out. That is one instance. On the March meeting, that's when you got your first acceleration, man. The market accelerates into that March meeting. You're able to bounce up to 4,600, and then what happens, man, all of the air comes out of the room and you trade down 1,000 S&P points after that bounce. Doesn't mean the bounce will hold, okay, but we have traded lower into the Fed meeting that has provided some of the bounces when we've eventually gotten there because the market gets ahead of things, man. Now there is your CPI data, folks. You drop off from about 4,175 to 3,950, so the market has lost about 300 points since we got that CPI data, but all we've done is trade back to September 7th. That's another way to put it, man, right? If you said you were coming into Fed Day on September 7th, so two weeks ago, exactly, okay? If you said, in between that time, we're going to get the CPI data that we got. Where do you think the market's going to be when we come into a Fed decision with the S&P trading at 3,900 on September 7th, and we're going to be trading at about 3,900 on September 21st, and here's what the CPI data is going to reveal in the two weeks in between that time. I think many of us would say that the market's probably going to be lower than where it was on September 7th if we got the CPI number we did, which we did. And yet, here we find ourselves, folks. Let's jump around to some of the fang stocks. We'll kick it off with Apple. Apple, higher by about 30 cents today. Apple catching a little bit of a bid. Apple almost traded all the way back to its 618 of the entire run higher from June up to the highs of August. You're back off to a low of about 148.37. You're up to 157.26 so far this morning. We jump over to Amazon shares, trading up a bid at 122.61. You see the difference there. Not quite as big of a bounce at all when you're looking at Amazon shares compared to what Apple had going on there in a big way. We could have some retail sales problems, folks, if you have economy problems. And that's going to impact Amazon. Apple has their issues as well. I talked about it earlier this week, though. Apple, and they make a lot of money, a lot of money, folks, off the premium phones that they're selling. Maybe the more affluent individuals might handle a recession even a little bit better than most. Stay tuned, folks. We're coming back with our man, Kevin Hicks from TD Ameritrade Network. Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia, the Mount Todd Gold Project. Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study, resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve. Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIBC Capital Market Assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accretive transaction. Vista Gold trades on the NYSE American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGC. Vista Gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value. You'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to. And you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. 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We get S&P Futures up by 23 right now, NASDAQ 100. You're up by about 60 points, the Dow Bop 161. Let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hinks. Every trading day, folks, 12 noon Eastern time right here on Tiger TV. The TD Ameritrade Network with Fast Market. Your host, Kevin Hinks. Tom White, the whole team at TD Ameritrade Network. They walk you through the day's market action, folks. They're talking defined risk. They're walking you through hypothetical trade setups, using options in every trade that they're going over. Defined risk in quite a market and we got a big day. Kevin Hinks, good morning. Good morning, Tommy or Brian. Yeah, it's a big day and it's interesting. The Fed is going to dominate today's news. But there's some other news out there that a normal day would move markets like Vladimir Putin. And what he's doing over in Russia right now would be a market moving event. However, it looks like Jerome Powell is going to dominate today's trading with. The question is, which Jerome Powell is going to show up, Tommy, is it the market calming Jerome Powell? Is it the delivery of the news that the market's like or is it the Jackson Hole Jerome Powell and the one who's harsh and short and to the point and talk, use his word like pain? That's what the market's trying to figure out right now, Tommy. It's a tough one, man. And in my head, I try and go over, you know, he said throughout all of this, right, that he's going to be data dependent, as I'm sure every bed chairman or chairwoman would. But I think it's so important right now. And so you're going to get a glimpse of it in terms of where they go right now and the messaging, Kevin. But, you know, I'm reading a lot this morning about even there's going to be projections for 2025 for the first time. The projections have been so wrong for so long almost going into, you know, the last year, how this has persisted, the word transitory and all of that. So we're going to get what we're going to get today. It seems like we're going to get a very big hike, right? The Fed is probably going to be pretty hawkish in my opinion. And then where do we go from there? Does it become about the next CPI data, Kevin? Or do we just go right to those next data points to see? Because when I think about projections, and I know the market's going to care a lot more about the next year projections, because they're probably more reliable, but you're talking about going out so far that I feel like if we're dealing with inflation that's anywhere near where we're at right now and we still have an unemployment rate that's in the ballpark of 4%, it seems like that we're going to have a big problem right now with the Fed being a big giant in the room for a foreseeable future. Do you, what's your take on that kind of analysis of things? Remember something, even Jerome Powell has mentioned while standing at a podium, that the projections going forward, the dot plot are not reliable. So I wouldn't look on any of that. If you're trading these markets on a daily basis, you don't care about 2025. You don't care. You care about the data that's coming out right now and the market reactions to that data. Now, Jerome Powell will set the tone, I think for the next few months or weeks in his comments. But beyond that, you have no idea, none of us do what this market's going to do. So trade the news today. Don't worry about a dot plot out to 2025 because frankly, they've been discounted by the Fed chair himself. So if he does count some, I do too, Tommy. Yeah, that's why I asked you the question, man. And it's gonna be a wild one for sure. Now, what's your take on trading into the Fed meeting? I was talking about as I kicked off the program, you brought it up many times earlier than the year. I can't believe we're already six months past it. But when we came into that March meeting, which is where things really lifted off in a big way in terms of the rates going higher, you actually had the market, Kevin, at that point had traded from 4,800 down to about 4,100. We got quite a reprieve up to 4,600 following that March meeting and then the S&P's traded down 1,000 points. But with the pullback we've seen from the CPI, do you think part of a potentially caucus message is already built in to an S&P trading down almost 300 points from where we were just last Tuesday? Well, 75 basis points is surely baked in. But Jerome Powell's comments are baked in, right? Which Jerome Powell shows up today and how does he talk about the overall market? Cause let's face it, Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole was different than we had seen him historically. So if he takes on that tone, this market is gonna react to that. Now, Tommy, could there be a relief for Ali no matter what Jerome Powell says? Yes, there absolutely could be. And you've gotta be cognizant of that as well. Is there does relief come out of this or is it more pressure on the overall market? And I don't know that yet, Tommy. I gotta find out what he says and how he says it, frankly. As I like to say, man, we're gonna know a lot more when I talk to you tomorrow in 24 hours. You know, right now about this market. With that in mind, Kevin, what are you guys talking about beyond the obvious coming up today on Fast Market at 12? We're gonna talk about garden restaurants coming out with earnings. We're gonna talk about, obviously, we'll cover the Fed extensively today, but we'll also look at Lenar and we'll look at KB Homes, two of the home builders coming out with earnings, but like Bolio's gonna do presentation on Darden Restaurant Group. They're coming out with earnings before the open tomorrow morning. Darden Restaurant's trading right now, 132. Good old Olive Garden, along with a couple others that I enjoy out there for that. Capital Grill? Season 52. I'm sorry, what'd you say? Say it again for me, Kevin. Capital Grill and Season 52. Yeah, they've got a big portfolio of restaurants. It's pretty cool. We've talked about it before. I forgot about Capital Grill. I knew Season 52. They do a bunch of restaurants, along with Olive Garden, some good pasta and breadsticks, right? Kevin, we appreciate it, man. Taking the time on a busy day and we look forward to the program at 12 o'clock today. We'll talk to you tomorrow, man. Thanks for having me on, Tommy. Have a great day. Always a pleasure. Folks, tune in every trading day. Today, I'm sure it's gonna be a good one, especially talking about the Fed. You talk about volatility. You talk about a day of volatility. Today might be that day. S&Ps right now, folks. Up about 21 points, excuse me. And yeah, Darden Restaurants catching quite a bit off their last earnings, right? July, June 22nd, around the last low of 110. You're up a solid 20% from where you were then at 132. And yes, they have Olive Garden Capital Grill Season 52. If you're not familiar with Season 52, you ever find one, folks? And I don't know in any Darden restaurant stock at all, but I am a fan of Season 52. It's a healthier restaurant. So a lot of their meals, I don't think there's like a calorie number. There used to be, every meal they had used to be like 475 or 575 calories. Just a healthy conscious restaurant in a fine dining atmosphere where they have a bunch of good wine. They have a guy on the piano or a girl on the piano playing some tunes while you're in there, live music.  And it's phenomenal food on top of it, man. I would go in there and you would be able to get a filet. So you're getting a steak with vegetables and you're getting mashed potatoes, not even the cauliflower mashed potatoes, okay? And we would ask even the bartender, the server sometimes, you know, this stuff's so good. You're getting a steak, you're getting, now you're getting the very trimmed up filet, right?  Filets aren't really that calorie intensive because there's very little fat on them. Just a lot of lean meat. But what do they do in its entirety in that restaurant to keep things as healthy as possible? Very little cream or butter, if not none at all. Then that's what they said. So the mashed potatoes, they're seasoned well. Very little cream or butter. Cream or butter, folks? Pretty calorie intensive, just like peanut butter. Love them, calorie intensive for sure. All right, folks, we got the open coming up. We're up at 18 points now. 19 points in the SMPs. As we come into the opening bell of Fed Day, we have a decision about four and a half hours from right now. Stay tuned, folks. I'll be right back. Time of booming inflation. We are purchasing powers eroded. 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For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Welcome back, folks. We've got markets open and you have the S&P popping a bit. You're up 22 points right now with 38.95 and you see from where we were yesterday, though, you're talking about just trading back just above where we were at noon Eastern time, maybe, on yesterday, let alone well off the highs we had early yesterday morning. We're approaching 3900 NASDAQ 100. You're up by 48 points right near 12,000 Dow right now, just near 31,000 as well, 30,974. We jump around. Kevin mentioned it, man. We'll jump to Putin, Putin. So I saw one of my friends was sharing one of our group chats. I think the Russian stock market was down like 9% in the last two days and they were saying that the oligarchs know something. And there proceeded to be many, many articles written over the overnight talking about what exactly was going on there and Putin is mobilizing more troops and wields Ukraine nuclear threat. They're gonna call up as many as 300,000 reservists after losses. Things are escalating to put it lightly, folks. Putin declared a partial mobilization, calling up 300,000 reservists in a major escalation. So Bloomberg puts it of his flagging invasion of Ukraine, which he portrayed as a fight to the death with the US and its allies. Not good, man. Any other day, this would be absolutely dominating if we weren't in Fed hysteria right now. As Russia moves to annex-occupied parts of the territory, which is now the plan, Putin also renewed his warnings of a nuclear threat when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened. We will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. This is not a bluff. Well, you never know until it actually is or is not, unfortunately. So it's not clear whether the mobilization in the country's first since the Nazi invasion of World War II will be enough to slow Ukraine's advances on the battlefield, right? Man, it's pretty intense. When you talk about the possibilities that are popping up here, yeah. So that is in the fray with the geopolitics of China right now and the geopolitics of Russia, man. Not getting a lot of press because the Fed is on their hike in cycle that they're on, man. But in any other world, if we were not in a restrictive Fed cycle with inflation at 8.5%, Russia and China would be getting much more coverage, I think, than they're getting for the geopolitical risks that are popping up. We'll jump to mortgage demand rises for the first time in six weeks, despite the higher interest rates. Interesting, right? The average increase to 6.25% folks, 6.25%. Applications to refinance actually rose for the week, although still 83% lower than the same week a year ago. Maybe people think if they need to refinance, they need that money, they need that equity out of that house right now before potentially the equity goes down even more if the housing market pulls back and it's worth it. You can always refinance in the future too. That's the thing, right? A lot of times people think mentally, oh, geez, if I refinance now, I'm at 6.25% and listen, there's a possibility rates aren't going back down to where they were, okay? I get that. There's a possibility the rates are gonna be higher for three, four, five years. There's a possibility that the rates that we just lived through for the last 10 years we might not see ever again for that type of duration. I get that, okay? But rates will come back down from where they are right now, they will. So you will have an ability to refinance. You probably won't be locking in 6.25%. But guess what, man? Back in the early 80s when I was born, I was getting savings bonds. Born in the year 1980 that I think were pushing 17% yield on that savings bond. So don't say it can't happen. It is possible. You refinancing at that rate, you're giving up probably a much lower rate to access that equity. But nonetheless, that's the decision to have right now. And that's the decision people are facing, right? Which is why it's slowing down the economy. It's that simple. So applications were up 10%. Mortgage applications to purchase a home that was for refinancing rose 1% for the week, but with 30% lower than the same week a year ago, buyers are now seeing less competition in today's pricey market. So some may be jumping in when they have the chance, right? Interesting. It's a lot harder to get a mortgage right now. So if you're willing to get that mortgage right now, you might be able to actually buy a house because there's less competition. Maybe you're the one who wins out in your refinance in three, four, five years and you make up for what you did on that mortgage rate. But yeah, it showed the average rate on the 30 year fixed rates just below 6.5%, man. They're even higher, of course. 6.5% on a mortgage right now. I mean, my dad and Bessford do a show on Fridays, folks. They talk about it. I think they were talking about it last week, or maybe it was Jacob doing the show with Bessford. The statistics, or maybe it was a couple of weeks ago with my dad and Bessford, the statistics in terms of what your buying power is, folks, it's almost cut in half in terms of monthly payments, depending on what you're talking about, when you add in that the houses have risen so much. So we'll see where we go from there. All right, let's jump around and see how some of the stocks are opening this morning as we hold positive prices. Amazon dips a bit, down one tenth percent. We jump over to Apple, up about eight tenths percent. Apple can't hold Apple down, man. Microsoft shares this morning, you're up about six tenths percent right now. Let's see how Tesla's trading. Basically flat, we jumped to some of the growth stocks arc. They're giving it back down about 1.1. They're gonna have a volatile day, as usual, when rates are in question, Zoom shares. Basically flat so far. We jump over to Roku, down 1.1% right now. DraftKings, another one that's always volatile for growth stocks. DraftKings off 1.9%. Cathie Woods into Teledoc a lot, down 1%. Well, some of these growth stocks, they're getting hit right now. Let's see how Peloton's trading. They came out with their rowing machine for $3,000, right? And they are now down below $9.50, man. Look at this thing. So you give back everything you were yesterday. You were 10, 20 yesterday, folks, right? And you just give up 70 cents for a $10 stock. Set five, six percent, $10 and 20 cents. So yeah, I don't know how Peloton, I mean, the recurring revenue is everything for that company. That's all I'll say, because if you're talking about selling exercise equipment, I mean, is there a public company, you know, that sells everything from P90X to Bowflex? Some of them are big companies, but they're not a big company like Peloton, man, as they are priced in for some future growth that is pretty bananas. All right, let's jump around to some of the currencies on Fed Day. We jump as we tease real quick everything. And we'll leave this one because we're talking to our man, Teddy Kakes, as we jump around, folks, look at the dollar on a weekly, man. You're talking about from May of last year at 89 to 110, we're making new highs with the dollar surging higher. Look at that, right? Overnight to 110.77 right now on the dollar index. We jumped to commodities, crude sitting at about 85 bucks and you get the gold contract right now. Gold, up $10 right now, even with some dollar strength. See all the yen straight right now on that news as well. And yen back at about 144 right now. Interesting to see the dollar up about $10 as you have the yen actually continuing to rise, probably pushing near those highs recently on the dollar yen. The market's giving it up a little bit. Nasdaq 100, barely in the green by about 20. S&Ps off by about 15. We just gave up about 10 points since we opened on the S&P. Let's jump over the Vixie, how we're trading right now. Volatility index at 26.84. We jumped to notes and bonds, chopping right at around 114 right now with a yield on the 10-year of about 3.55%. All right folks, stay tuned. We're gonna take a quick break. We'll be coming back with our man, Teddy Kekstat, writes the Tiger Forex report. We'll be talking some Forex. We'll be talking some crude oil. We'll be talking some yields on Fed Day folks. Stay tuned, we'll be right back with Teddy. 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The Tiger Forex Report, he puts out an outstanding letter every Monday and updates when warranted throughout the week. We talk to Teddy every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. Always an interesting one when we talk to him on an interesting day like today, like Fed Day. Teddy Kegsat, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. Yeah, we have an exciting day today, don't we? Oh boy, man. I don't know, as I was mentioning to Kevin Hinks, they said, we'll know a lot more when I talk to you tomorrow in 24 hours than we do today because we find out a lot today, man. Where do you, I guess, let's jump to the Fed, Teddy. What are you anticipating, if anything, this afternoon from Chairman Powell? Well, I think a three-quarter point, no matter what is something that should be expected. The full point, I don't know. It's very possible. I think it's factored into the market already. So, but yeah, I think for sure, you're gonna see a three-quarter point with the potential of a full point, you know, and especially now that we have the ECB that's starting to get hawkish, I think that there's no reason why Powell would slow down his course of action, if you will. And how would that play into things with the ECB, I guess, is when you look at, I mean, we have the dollar index surging even higher today, right? We got some action going on with the dollar pushing 1086 was the overnight, we're at 110.75 right now. Even though the ECB is hiking, I guess, is the way to put it, that doesn't seem like it's slowing down what's happening at all, whether it's our yields or the dollar at all. Yeah, I think that the ECB thing is only putting on the brakes a little bit, as far as the Euro-US dollar trade is concerned. I still am very embarrassed at market. I mean, their three-quarter point is only gonna be canceled out by whatever we do today at the very least, you know, if not actually taken over if we do a full point. So that makes it basically a moot, you know, action, if you will. So the Euro-US dollar, I think, is still gonna trend lower. I wouldn't doubt that after today you may see a little profit-taking rally going on against the dollar. I mean, why wouldn't you? You know, now, you gotta realize that the three-quarter point is definitely factored in. A lot of people are factoring in the full point. The Fed speak is gonna be important. Are they, are we looking, we know that they're gonna remain hawkish. The question is, are they gonna be firing on all cylinders? Remember, six months ago, we were talking about, you know, the Fed raising rates every meeting at about a half a percent, maybe three-quarters here or there, you know? So, and they started out with the haves, now they're three-quarters. You know, it's a very aggressive action that's going on right now. And the question is, how long are they gonna maintain this, you know? And I always had a really interesting conversation with somebody in the real estate industry just the other day. If you look at the yields and excuse me, the mortgage rates, just in one year, they've tripled. You're going up 300% at going into this meeting if they raise a full point or even three-quarters of a point.  Now, when you're coming off of next to zero, a 300% gain is not that big of a deal.  Now, we're not gonna maintain that kind of rate. You know, like, I wouldn't, if interest rates are up 300% from where they are right now to going into today, next year, then we have a really serious issue, you know, because mortgage rates will be in the teens, you know? So, but I think for sure, listen to what Powell has to say after this meeting. And I think he's gonna stay aggressive. I think that the stance that he has is he's gonna remain hawkish into the rest of the year, especially with the way the economic numbers have been coming out. Yeah, that's CPI number, right? And we still have an unemployment rate that by historical standards, man, it's pretty low. So, we're gaining hundreds of thousands of jobs a month, man. We got unemployment at 3.5, 3.6%, and we have inflation raging. So, yeah, I would say that they should keep the pedal to the metal, as they would say. What do you think of Russia, man? And the news going on with Russia impacting things at all in terms of, you know, the energy, the crude, we got crude sitting pretty healthy at $85 is not that bad of a price tag right now, especially with potentially things ratcheting up with Putin over there. Well, especially with crude right now, you know, we had that buy signal that we put out in the report a couple of weeks ago. Crude has been holding, you know? I mean, it's kind of bobbling off the lows. I think especially with this Russian thing that no matter what, things are gonna escalate when it comes to commodity prices again. We're in the fall, we're coming into winter. These, all these energy issues with the EU, they're gonna come to ruse sooner than later. Well, that's for sure. You know, you gotta realize we are very, very lucky even in the U.S. with the way, I mean, the climatologists will tell you the earth is falling apart, but we haven't had any major storms in the U.S. that we normally have going into the fall. You know, we haven't had Houston hit with any hurricanes. You know, that hasn't had any, we haven't had any disruptions on the refinery or supply side in America, which is weird for this time of year. Usually we will have had at least one major storm hit Houston, you know? It's like clockwork. Now globally, the same issue is there. Now we're coming into winter. What happens if the weather starts to really go hard this winter, come November and December? The price, the energy prices in Europe are crippling them. If the Ukrainian, Russian conflict, this is not going to be over in six months. This is not gonna end at any time soon. You know, hopefully it doesn't get escalating in a really bad way, but there is no way I can see this panning out that we're gonna have some kind of peace talks or neutrality or easing up on anything, you know, over the next six months. The sanctions that are on Russia aren't hurting Russia. They're destroying the economy of the EU right now. And they're also affecting all kinds of other trade balances across the world. You know, lines in the sand were drawn by these sanctions. Those are not gonna go away, even if you have peace talks between the Ukraine and Russia. You know, I mean, the reality is India, China, these things, they're in motion. They're set in stone now. Why would they come back to the table with the United States or even Europe or any of these other countries that have now put them through all this financial nightmare? Cause on their end, they're looking at it like, well, we're not involved in this war. Why do we have to have our economy suffer because of what you're doing to act, you know, for your actions, you know? And I think it's all gonna come to roost. I think that the dollar right now, we're riding a nice little wave higher, but when this thing turns, you know, and it could really turn very quickly next year, you're gonna see a sell-off in the dollar like you saw on the bonds over the past year, you know? And that's gonna be very big. You were talking about where the dollar index was a year ago, we could be back at those levels in less than a one year's time when we go down, when we start going the other way. Wherever we eventually turn, because yeah, we will get over that at some point. As in, I think, you know, at least you have a chairman who may be late to the party of the Fed, but seems like the focus is there. And it seems like, fortunately, our economy can handle it right now, at least better than Europe in terms of really, you know, crushing things to the point of getting inflation under control and having an economy that, yeah, might not be as good as it's been, but hopefully the Fed doesn't completely destroy that where they have to come into the rescue following that. What do you think, let's jump to the dollar yen, all right? Because I was kind of surprised to see we got dollar yen up a bit, we got gold up, even $10, but gold, man, near recent lows you're talking about years, but what's your take on the yen, Teddy, as we push 144, kind of similar, we're just chopping around in this area? Well, right now, excuse me, I think that after the meeting, when the number gets hiked up, I think for sure you're gonna see a little spike into US dollar yen. They've already hit through some key resistance with, I mean, in the very short amount of time over the past few weeks to begin with. And I think that there's no way to see, no reason to think that these levels aren't gonna keep continuing to make higher move highs and higher move lows. So I think that after the meetings, we're gonna probably see, if not today over the next couple of sessions, we're gonna see new highs in the yen, I can see it's going to 150 over the next couple of weeks, if not the next two weeks or so. And will that eventually get the same type of pullback like the dollar when that turns in the years to come? Oh, well, eventually, yeah, that will, but it's gonna take, you know, a real much more than market. Hang with us for one more segment, okay, Teddy? Perfect, we'll be right back folks, talk a little again to finish it up, we'll be right back. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. 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You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices.  First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. 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For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We get the S&Ps up about 23 points right now, trading at 38.96. We're talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad. So just finishing up, Teddy. Talking about, you know, because it is interesting to think about, right? We have the dollar index charging above 110. Once we eventually maybe roll over, maybe once the Fed gets inflation under control, they don't have to be as restrictive. Yields come into things, of course. Maybe that rolls over. Now, is that gonna translate? Of course it's gonna translate to dollar pairings versus any currency. But the way the yen has written up there, is that kind of a market that you could look for a similar top that would be tied to that type of a rollover in the dollar? Oh, I think that once we start to see the Fed not be so hawkish that that would give us a good situation for a correction, I think really the only way you're gonna see a big correction in the yen, though, is if we have another big sell-off in oil. You know, that's one of the big things. And I would say, if we get a bounce in the bonds in the tenure, which is very likely after this Fed meeting, you know, in a couple of sessions, now I would think that we may still push the lows first, you know, spike before we, you know, reverse for a correction. But we're due for a correction. I mean, the way the bonds in the tenure over trade now, there's no reason to not see that we would have a three, four basis handle correction. If we have something like that, we could easily have a four to $6 sell-off in the yen. You know, so I mean, right now we're trading around 143. To get back to 137 for a bounce, very, very likely. You know, I think that going any lower than that, you could maybe get down to the 135 area. But that would be if we have like a week and a half to two weeks of the yields, basically trending lower in the U.S. on the tenure and the third year, which could very easily happen in between the next Fed meetings. We have a little gap now between this meeting and the next meeting. So for us to have a bounce, you know, going against the trend of the Fed, the market, I mean, you gotta realize the mortgage, the bankers right now are scrambling for people to refinance because they know that rates are going up. I mean, I had a conversation with somebody yesterday, you know, that they were trying to get people to refinance and lock them in. Yesterday, I'm like, well, that would be a good thing to do because tomorrow it's going to be up a full point. Sure. No, I hear you, man. The end is not in sight just yet, in my opinion. But we get to find out today. Teddy, thanks for taking the time as always, man. We appreciate it. We'll talk to you next Wednesday. Folks, check out the Tiger 4X report. Thanks so much for tuning in. Starting your day. Stay tuned. Basil's up next, folks. It's Fed Day. Don't go away. We'll be right back.