You know some people find a spot where they've been comfortable the whole lives in the water and then the minute they get taken Under it changes everything Swimming is one thing But then when you start applying gear and then the rescue scenarios where you know Someone's grabbing on to you and you're having to take them underneath the water and you're having to think clearly as well as execute You know like a head hold escape underwater and then when you come up you're exhausted But you still have to you know take a victim and get him to safety The physical exertion as well as the mental exertion that goes into that is pretty exhausting


When I grow diesel, I see super skunk and I see chem dog in it. I can't guarantee it's the only thing in it, but I see traits that pass down from both parents. Yeah. Easily. I've grown a lot of all of them, so it takes that. I also think that like sour for everyone listening, diesels in general is our modern skunk. Yeah. I, you know, I agree that sour, you know, I think that fuel and gas and that nose crinkle and all that weird, I think that's all offshoots of like that rank RFK, like all that skunk stink. Yeah. I think it's just all plays on the same nose. I put up pictures of Chem 91 again so people can get an idea.


Second Lieutenant Casey Colleen com squadron 18 the whole purpose of ACM is to be able to deploy at a moment's notice So this drill with a short notice flyway like this It helps us to better train for how we're actually going to fight So like I briefly just said it's a short notice flyway drill So a few days prior we get a notice like hey, we're conducting this flyway drill over on Futenma This is kind of what we're trying to accomplish And then we pack out our gear set and then load it on a 7-ton drive it over to Futenma Load it up on an aircraft and get it to the destination So our role is to provide communication So we provide nipper and zipper and then we provide line of sight and beyond line of sight single channel radio We have to be ready to deploy at a moment's notice


Welcome to Spotlight. I'm Liz Wade. Spotlight uses a special English method of broadcasting. It is easier for people to understand, no matter where in the world they live. Christmas It is the most celebrated holiday in the world. Around the world, over two billion people celebrate this holiday every year. Christmas celebrates the birth of Jesus Christ, an event that happened over 2,000 years ago. Most people in the world celebrate Christmas on December 25th. However, some Christians from countries like Russia, Egypt, and Ethiopia celebrate Christmas on January 7th. Traditionally, the Christmas season lasts for 12 days. However, in many places, people celebrate only Christmas Day and the day before, called Christmas Eve. Around the world, people follow many different Christmas traditions. But no matter how or when people celebrate Christmas, everyone celebrates with food. Today's spotlight is on Christmas foods from around the world. Food is an important part of most holiday celebrations. Large meals or feasts bring people together. And often, holiday foods represent what the holiday is about. Join Spotlight as we tell about these Christmas foods. In the United Kingdom, people eat a large Christmas meal. When they are done, they eat a sweet dessert called Christmas pudding. Christmas pudding contains ingredients like dried fruit, alcohol, butter, sugar, eggs, flour and spices. Many people make Christmas pudding with 13 ingredients. This number has a religious meaning. It represents Jesus Christ and his 12 closest followers, called the Disciples. Traditionally, people begin making Christmas pudding five weeks before Christmas. They begin by combining and steaming the pudding ingredients. Some people only mix the ingredients in one direction, from east to west. They do this to remember part of the Christmas story. The Christian Bible says that a group of wise men came from the east to see the baby Jesus in Bethlehem. After cooking the Christmas pudding, people let it set for a few weeks. On Christmas Day, they cook it again. Often, they pour an alcohol called brandy over it and set it on fire. It is a beautiful thing to see. Millions of people in the United Kingdom eat Christmas pudding at Christmas. However, today, many people choose to buy it instead of make it. In Northern Europe, many people celebrate Christmas with another kind of pudding. In Iceland, it is called Mudenlughotta and in Sweden, it is called Yulegrot. This sweet pudding is made from rice, sugar, salt, milk and spices like cinnamon. In Denmark, people call it Risalamand and they serve it with a sweet fruit sauce on top. This pudding is part of a Christmas game. The person that makes the pudding hides a whole almond nut in it. They serve the pudding to everyone at the end of the meal. Each person eats their pudding and hopes to find the almond in their bowl. Finding the almond means you will have good luck in the coming year. The person who finds the almond also gets a special present or treat. People all across Northern Europe celebrate this fun tradition. Germany also has many wonderful Christmas food traditions. However, the sweetest of these is Stolen. Stolen is a sweet bread. People have made Stolen during the Christmas season for 600 years. In the 1400s, Stolen was not very good tasting. It was made of only flour, oil, water and yeast for helping the bread rise. However, over many years, the recipe for Stolen has changed and developed. Today, the German people make Stolen with sugar, colourful dried fruit, nuts, spices, alcohol and a lot of butter. People make Stolen in the shape of a long bread loaf.  The Bible says that after the baby Jesus was born, his parents covered him with white cloth. The Stolen's white icing represents this cloth and the loaf represents the newborn Jesus. During the Christmas season, Stolen fills Christmas markets around Germany. And there is a famous Stolen festival in the town of Dresden. Next, we travel to several European countries to learn about their Christmas Eve meals. In the country of Italy, many people do not eat red meat in the weeks before Christmas. They are waiting for the celebration of Christmas. On the day before Christmas, they eat a special meal that does not include meat. It is called the Feast of the Seven Fishes. In the Bible, the number seven represents perfection or completion. This meal completes the season of preparation for Christmas. In Russia and many other Eastern European countries, people also celebrate a special meal on Christmas Eve. The meal includes twelve different foods. The twelve dishes are usually fish and vegetables. The number twelve represents Jesus' twelve disciples and the end of the twelve month year. Many other parts of the meal represent parts of the Christmas story when Jesus was born. Some people call this Christmas Eve meal the Holy Supper. Our next Christmas food is popular all over the Spanish-speaking world. It is called Rosca de Reyes. This means King's Ring. From Spain to Mexico to South America, people make, buy and eat King's Ring. They celebrate the end of the Christmas season called Epiphany. Like Stalin, King's Ring is a sweet bread. However, King's Ring is large and round with a hole in the middle. People decorate the ring with colourful, sweet-dried fruits and candies. But the most special thing about the King's Ring is what is inside it. Every King's Ring has a small figure hidden in it. It is a symbol of the baby Jesus. Everyone wants to get the piece of the King's Ring with the baby Jesus' figure in it. People believe it is a blessing. In some cultures, people bring the figure of Jesus to church with them later in the year. In other cultures, whoever gets the baby Jesus' figure must cook the meal at the next holiday. Today, millions of people celebrate the end of the Christmas season with King's Ring. These are just a few Christmas food traditions from around the world. But there are thousands more. And almost every person who celebrates Christmas has their own particular Christmas food traditions. What about you? Do you celebrate Christmas? If you do, what special foods do you eat during the Christmas season? If you do not celebrate Christmas, what foods do you make during your special holidays? You can leave a comment on our website or email us at radio at radioenglish.net. You can also comment on Facebook at facebook.com slash spotlight radio. The writer of this program was Robin Basilen. The producer was Michio Ozaki. The voices you heard were from the United States and the United Kingdom. You can listen to this program again and read it on the internet at www.radioenglish.net. This program is called Christmas Food Around the World. We hope you can join us again for the next Spotlight Program. Goodbye!


For your entertainment and pleasure, here is our Miss Brooks, starring Eve Arden. She teaches English at Madison High School, as always hoped that someday she would head her department. But with Mrs. Emma Finch holding down the job for the past five years, it didn't look like Connie Brooks would ever get a crack at it until last week. It was right before the final exam that Mr. Conklin, our principal, told me Mrs. Finch was not only retiring from the position, but actually leaving the school. When I asked him why, he blushed and replied, because it's best for all concerned. Oddly enough, it was our bashful biology teacher, Mr. Boynton, who finally told me the reason. We were alone in his laboratory at the time, and he said, Mrs. Finch is going to have a B-A-B-Y. I guess he put it that way so as not to embarrass some young rabbits who were listening. Anyway, Friday morning at breakfast, I was talking to my landlady, Mrs. Davis, about it. Well, what do you think, Mrs. Davis? You suppose I'll get the job? I can't see any reasons why you shouldn't, Connie. Honestly? But can you see any reasons why I should, Mrs. Davis? No, I can't see any of those either. Except for Mr. Conklin to recommend the new department head to the Board of Education, isn't it? Yes, it is. Well, how do you stand with him? Everything. How do you mean, Mrs. Davis? Have you been previous, cooperative, obedient, and respectful? No, no, no. And maybe I'd better forget the whole thing. Of course, it's not entirely up to Mr. Conklin's opinion of me personally. My work's got something to do with it, hasn't it? Thank you, Connie. Your work should have everything to do with it. That's what I say. Maybe I'd better forget the whole thing. Are there any other English teachers at Madison or Guinea as long as you have? Let's see. Yes, Miss Enright's been there about the same length of time, and she's been quite friendly with the Conklin's, too. Of course, I have Mr. Conklin's daughter Harriet in my class, and we're great friends. Then that wouldn't influence Mr. Conklin, any. Although Harriet's a pretty good pupil, thank goodness, and her marks have all been exceptionally high. That might count for something with the old... He might make his decision right away. He might leave the position open for a while. I wish I knew, but then there's no sense in brooding about it. I'm either to be head of the department or I'm not to be. Oh, thanks for reminding me, Connie. I must get two tickets for Hamlet today. I promise, like Mr. Angela, I'll take you to see it. Of course, even if I forgot about it, she'd probably never even mention it. She's so absent-minded, poor thing. The older she gets, the more forgetful she is. How old is she now, Mrs. Davis? Who? Your sister. Which one? Angela, the absent-minded one. Oh, she's in the low 70s. That's pretty good golfing, old lady. Oh, Angela's not half as bad as my brother, Victor. He's so forgetful sometimes. Why, do you know, Connie, he can be talking to you about something and right in the middle of the sentence, get off on another topic altogether. Really? Yes, it's quite disconcerting, but I guess it's just something that scrambled Borough to fry, Connie. Well, I suppose you just asked me. What? Dear, how would you like them? I'd like them introduced into the conversation a little earlier.  Good. Then we'll both have oatmeal. That's the only way to eat eggs. Where's the coffee, Mrs. Davis? Right here, Connie. I'll pour you some. Thanks.  It's the additional income. How much of a raise will you get, Connie? Oh, I'm not certain of the exact amount, Mrs. Davis, but it's well over $9 a month. Just think, I won't have to put newspapers in my shoes when the souls wear out. Now I can use magazine paper. You mentioned the Miss N right before, Connie. Is that the rather new teacher you're telling me about? That's her, Mrs. Davis. And if she gets that job as head of the English department, she'll be impossible. What she walks around the school now is if she's inspecting the stockyards. And he coughs to people. Why, darling, you look positively she's. I mean, just too, too terribly, so I'm yay. It's sickening. Oh, don't get any more oatmeal again. Just finish your coffee. You've been derailed again, Mrs. Davis. Let me help you back on the track. I'm talking about Miss Enright, a rival English teacher. She's got me worried. Oh, don't worry about it, Connie. I'm sure her baby will be a fine, healthy specimen. She isn't the one who's going to have the baby, Mrs. Davis. Well, that's a shame. I think the mother should always take care of her own baby, no matter what. It's Mrs. Finch who's having the baby. Who? Mrs. Finch. Oh, well, that's a very nice name for a baby. Now, if you'll excuse me, Connie, I've got to clean up the dishes. All right, Mrs. Davis, you clean up the dishes and I'll clean up the conversation by myself. I'd help you in the kitchen, but I've got to get ready to go to school. Walter Den's picking me up any minute.  It's a pity he's not a more brilliant student, but I think I know what his trouble is, Connie. Lack of concentration. Concentration? Yes. If he would just concentrate on one subject at a time. If he's the kind of a boy who, well, he's the type that can... Um, Connie, yes? What were we talking about? Walter Den's.  What happened to your car, Connie? You just got it out of the repair shop. I know, Mrs. Davis, but I took it out the night of the big freeze. Oh. I did try to warm it up a little. I poured some boiling water into the radiator, but then the engine made the strangest sound. What kind of a sound, Connie? Well, I may be wrong, Mrs. Davis, but I'd swear it said, why don't you get yourself a bicycle? I'm glad you picked me up a little early this morning, Walter. Today may be a very important day in my life. Well, the importance of today or any day in your life, Miss Brooks, is only exceeded by your importance to your adoring pupils. Of which, if I may be so bold, I consider myself one of the most worshipful in reverence. Amen. Thank you, Walter. There's things about you, Miss Brooks. Character traits, I guess you'd call them, which are not to be found in any other teachers I've ever come into contact with.  I also know that you're kind, gentle, and considerate of those who may not possess the superior mentality, which is obviously your birthright. What else do you know, Walter? That today you're giving us the final exams in English. I thought you were a little over smitten with me this morning. Oh, I'm not trying to influence you to give me a better mark. Oh, no, I'd bend over backwards rather than curry favors. But I've actually studied for this test, Miss Brooks. But even Saturday, when Harriet dragged me to the movies, I took my books right up to the balcony with me. What were you studying, Romeo and Juliet? Oh, you're kidding me, Miss Brooks, but I'm serious. I really crammed in that movie. But how could you read in the dark? Oh, it isn't always dark, and they have a three-minute intermission between pictures. Well, that's plenty of time, especially if you were studying in shorthand. Of course, not knowing exactly what the questions are going to be about makes it a little tougher. Naturally? Sort of a strain on a student not to know approximately the nature of the questions he should expect. That's true. And just because a student has been fortunate enough to make a personal contact with a teacher whom he not only admires and respects as a person, but whose integrity and honesty as an instructor he holds in such high esteem is no reason for one to presume that just because he drives at a school faithfully and promptly she would relinquish just one tiny iota of that integrity and split them a little advanced information about the test. You're so right, Walter. I knew you'd react that way, Miss Brooks, but I just wouldn't have felt completely honest with myself if I didn't try to chisel a tip or two. Anyway, now that you've dumbied up about the test, maybe we... Excuse me, Walter, now that I've talked... Dummy duck. It's a synonym of clam duck. When I don't want anyone to know something about something I know about, I always clam up. And you're the chowder head who can do it. But, Walter, when I mentioned much earlier in the trip that this was an important day, I wasn't referring to the final exam. You weren't? No, I was thinking of Mrs. Finch. Oh, oh, the head of the English department. The ex-head of the English department, Walter. Mrs. Finch is leaving Madison. Why? Because she's... well, Mrs. Finch is going to become a mother. Of who? Now that's a fair question. Of your son or daughter, as the case may be. I didn't know Mrs. Finch had any son or daughter. Walter, you're not related to Mrs. Davis, are you? Oh, no. No, of course not. She's just absent-minded. Look, Walter, what concerns me at the moment is whether or not I have a chance to replace Mrs. Finch as head of the department.  You've been teaching at Madison long enough to be the principal. I mean, Mr. Conklin should certainly choose you over anybody else. How about Miss Enright? Oh, gee, I forgot about her.  Oh, he has point of service, that is. Oh, I'm glad you tagged that on, Walter. Nobody could be older than me in years. Not this morning, anyway. Why don't you worry about it, Miss Brooks? So why don't you see Mr. Conklin when we get to school and have a little chat with him? You know, turn on the charm, sort of. You mean butter him up? Is butter him up? Yes, and don't sound so innocent, Walter. After the job you did on me this morning, you should get a prize from the Derryman's Association. Sorry, Eve Arden will continue in just a moment. But first, the innermost thoughts of the second Mrs. Burton are yours to share as you follow her life story each Monday through Friday over most of these same stations. And like all of the people you meet in CBS Radio's daytime dramas, the second Mrs. Burton is someone whose thoughts and feelings are worth knowing. Burdened by the shadows of her husband's first marriage and often in conflict with her strong-willed mother-in-law, the second Mrs. Burton meets each new problem that stands in the way of happiness with courage and with intelligence, too. Tomorrow and every Monday through Friday follow the engrossing story of the second Mrs. Burton. Remember, you'll meet her right here on CBS Radio where Wendy Warren, young Dr. Malone, our gal Sunday, backstage wife Nora Drake and Ma Perkins, along with the folks on the Road of Life, the romance of Helen Trent, and the right to happiness all add drama and excitement to your daytime listening. That's on CBS Radio, of course. How are we, Miss Brooke? Good old Madison High. You know, every time I look at these hallowed walls, I wish for just one thing. What's that, Walter? I wish I was still home in bed. Maybe today were those finals coming up. Gosh, Miss Brooke, isn't there some little suggestions you could make to me so I'd pass you exam? Certainly there is, Walter. Answer the question correctly. Yeah. Well, you better get off here, Miss Brooke, and I'll go park the car. All right, Walter, thanks for the lift. And good luck today. Well, thank you, Miss Brooke. And good luck with Mr. Constance. Well, probably needed. I hope he's in a good mood this morning. Although, why, this morning should be any better. Hello, Miss Brooke. Oh, it's Harriet Constance. Good morning, Harriet. I wouldn't have interrupted you soliloquy, but you look sort of worried about something. Worried? Me? Whatever gave you that idea? To your confection. It's not as ruddy as it usually is. Oh, that's just in the new powder base I'm using. It's called Elephant Wallow Gray. Absolutely, though, I do have something on what's left of my mind, Harriet. It's Mrs. Finch. She's leaving the school. Yes, I know. I heard she was going to have a B-A-B-Y. Who told you? Mr. Boynton. That figure. But Harriet, as you must know, you've always been one of my favorite pupils. I'm glad you feel that way, Miss Brooke. You're my very favorite teacher. Thanks. I'm very fond of your mother, too. I know. And she's terribly fond of you, Miss Brooke. I'm glad. Then there's your father. Yes, I know. Well, Harriet, do you think that... I'm not going to... Well, that is... What are you trying to ask me, Miss Brooke? Do you think he's warm enough for buttering this morning? At least you think I should have a little talk with him in his office. About what? Well, somebody's got to replace Mrs. Finch, his head of the English department, and I think... But of course you'll get it. Is that from the horse's mouth or just rumor? I mean, did you happen to overhear anything? Look, Harriet, I don't want anybody to intercede for me because of any personal relationship we may have built up between us. What I'm trying to say is, well, I wouldn't want any principal's daughter, not even a clever, bright, pretty, industrious, talented, intelligent one like yourself to become a sixth column for me. Darling, Miss Brooke, nothing I could say would sway Daddy one inch. In fact, mother and I bend over backwards rather than suggest anything about his duties at school. But I'm so sure you're our next head of the English department that I've even written a little poem about it. Care to hear it? Well, if you don't think it'll put the whammy on me. Uh, jinx anything. To the head of the English department about to be, I present this little tribute to you from me. You crash your good tempered and don't fume or fret, but when it comes to our homework, you sure make us perspire. And in the forthcoming exams, whether I'm first or last, my feelings for you will be the same, especially if I'm past. So Miss Brooke's all hail to thee, head of the English department about to be. Well, what do you think of it, Miss Brooke? It won't send Carl Sandberg screaming into the hills, Harry. It's a lovely Sanderman.  Frankly, Miss Brooke, it isn't too good. When the news boy that delivers our paper came around for the money this morning, daddy did his head off. Fine, then he should be too full to take a bite out of me. Come in. Hey, Mr. Conklin. Oh, it's you, Miss Brooke. And how are you this bright, cheery, radiant day? I'm cold, damp, and depressed. Now, what can I do for you that won't take longer than a few minutes? Oh, it isn't what you can do for me, Mr. Conklin. It's what can I do for you. Oh, I know, I'll sharpen some pencils for you. Here's one. Miss Brooke, I don't want you to sharpen anything. Oh, but this one is so blunty. It'll just take a minute. There. Isn't that a lovely point? But I do. Give me your thumb a minute. Ow! See what I mean? Now, I'll just do a few more of them and you'll have enough for the week. Confound it, Miss Brooke. I don't want any more of my pencil shots. Oh, it's really no trouble at all, Mr. Conklin. This is just one of those days when a person feels privileged to assist his fellow man. A day when a spirit of cooperation seems to beckon like a beacon. Or a day when Mrs. Finch is leaving Madison and her position as head of the English Department. Mrs. Finch leaving Madison? Yes. Yes, Miss Brooke. I think I told you that several days ago. Oh, yes, of course. I've been so busy preparing my final examination papers it must have slipped my mind. She's going to have a B-A-B-Y, isn't she? Why yes. I guess. She is going to have a baby. Well, I just know they'll be happy together. Now, let's see what else I can do to make this office a home away from home for you. I know. I'll just rinse out this pen wiper for you. Uh, that happens to be a blue pocket handkerchief I got for Christmas. I'm not the woman out of my coat. Oh, then I'll tuck it back in for you. May I say you have a lovely eye for color combinations, Mr. Conklin? It goes so well with this pretty purple tie you've got on. But it seems a little loose around your neck. Let me tighten it a bit. There. Uh, that's better. Now you're both the same color. Here, Miss Brooks, I don't know what you expect to get. Oh, I must clean off that desk of yours, Mr. Conklin. And why in the world does that big, open inkwell have to be perched right in the middle of everything? Because I like it that way. Now listen to me, young woman. I'll have things in shape in no time. First, we'll move these papers next to the inkwell, and then... Oh. Now where is the inkwell perched, Miss Brooks? Oh, don't worry about that, Mr. Conklin. Ink is good for the rug. It means that ashes. Well, anyway, I'll go get a mop and... Sit down, Miss Brooks. Sit down? Yes, yes. As you know, I spent considerable time in the army as a major. Yes, I know, Mr. Conklin. And it always gave me a great feeling of security to know that somebody like you... Quiet! Yes, sir. Sorry. At ease. Now then, Miss Brooks, from my army experience, it's obvious to me that you are bucking for something. Bucking, Mr. Conklin? It's a colloquialism, Miss Brooks. It means that in order to gain some end of your own, you are acting like an eager beaver. Want some pencil sharpening? No! It's too silly to choose, Mr. Conklin. I just wanted to butter you up. Now what? Come in! Good morning, Mr. Conklin. Well, well, it's Miss Enron. Oh, and Miss Brooks is here too. How nice! Darling, you look positively chic. I mean, just too, too terribly soigné. Thanks. Loads. But why are you doing in school so early, darling?  You must have telescopic vision to see me from the bus. I'm not catching at that time. But what can I do for you, Miss Enron? Oh, it isn't what you can do for me, Mr. Conklin. It's what can I do for you. Oh, I know. I'll sharpen some pencils for you, Mr. Conklin. Thanks. Just the same, Miss Enron. Or maybe I should straighten out your desk. Oh, heavens, what happened to this inkwell? I already straightened out his desk. Well, don't worry about it, Mr. Conklin. I'm sure you can pick up another rug like that for five or six hundred dollars. Oh, before I forget, I'd like you to have these woolen socks. I knitted them myself. But, Miss Enron, I don't... It was a labor of love, Mr. Conklin. I worked on these socks just every available moment. I wasn't faithfully discharging my duties as an English teacher. They're nearly a slight expression of my gratitude for having been granted the privilege of working warm, kindly, and considerate boss as yourself. This kid melted before she spread the yarn. Well, thank you for the thought, Miss Enron, but with Mrs. Finch leaving Madison... Oh, is she really? Well, this is a big surprise. It must be. You look even more surprised than you did when we heard about it last Tuesday. That will do, Miss Brooks. Miss Enron, in view of the fact that you are eligible for the position that Mrs. Finch is relinquishing, I feel that I cannot accept this pair of socks. But, Mr. Conklin, whatever shall I do with them? You can give one to Mrs. Finch's baby. It'll make a nice sleeping bag for him. I think you should know, ladies, that my selection will be based largely upon the results your students achieve in their final exams this morning. Therefore, you will not mark your own papers, but bring them into this office immediately after the tests are completed. Are you going to mark them, Mr. Conklin? Certainly not, Miss Brooks. My daughter Harriet is one of the students taking the test. No, no, in order to assure complete impartiality, I've asked someone from another department to correct the papers. Mr. Boynton. Mr. Boynton? Oh, I know that you see each other socially on occasion, but he's the soul of honesty. And I know that he, like myself, would bend over backwards to see that justice is done. Who's teaching everybody to bend over backwards? Arthur Murray? Well, I don't think this arrangement is completely fair, Mr. Conklin. I never see Mr. Boynton. Well, if it'll make you feel any better, Miss Enright, I'm not going to see him again either, until lunch. If you'll just tell me what you want, Miss Brooks, I'll take your trade.  I'll wait until I find out the result of this morning's exam, the one you're marking, Mr. Boynton. Oh. Well, that's something I'd rather not talk about, Miss Brooks. You see, I've promised Mr. Conklin... I know you've got to be strictly impartial, Mr. Boynton, but couldn't you give me just an inkling of how I'm making out? But I gave my word, Miss Brooks. Just a teensy suggestion of the merest trace of a breath of a hint. But I gave Mr. Conklin my scouts' honor. Oh. Well, and you might as well get yourself something to eat. Oh, very well, Miss Brooks. I hope you swallow a merit bed. Dear, Mr. Boynton. Hello, Miss Enright. May I hear this table with you? The cabin here is awfully crowded today. Why, I don't see why not, Miss Enright. I do. Oh. Hello, darling. Oh, Mr. Boynton, before I forget, I'd like you to have these woollen socks. I knitted them especially for you. I don't think I should, Miss Enright. You see, I'm still judging your examination papers, but, well, thanks just the same. Now, if you'll tell me what you'd like to eat. Well, let me see. Oh, I see they have turkey today. Would you get me a drumstick, Mr. Boynton? Why don't you get two drumsticks and put the socks on them? Miss Brooks, Miss Enright, I've summoned you to my office to tell you that Mr. Boynton has finished grading the examination papers and has reported to me that both of your classes have done equally well. Therefore, it will have to be my decision after all. And that decision is dear, Mr. Conklin? I have decided. Yes, dear, Mr. Conklin. I have decided that for the coming fiscal year, I shall save the Board of Education exactly $9.85 per month. There will be no head of the English department in this school. Why darling, what in the world are you doing? Just breaking some of the pencils I sharpened this morning. Brooks returns in just a moment, but first, is your interest in events of the day based on business affairs or are you someone who just enjoys the adventure of living? In either case, you have every reason to demand that news reports come to you quickly, accurately, and with no waste of words. That's another way of saying you have every reason to insist on hearing the news on CBS Radio. Throughout the day every day, our far-flung staff of correspondence bring the most remote corners of the world to your hearth by means of their up-to-the-minute reports on developments at home and abroad. Whenever significant events take place, you can count on CBS News to bring you first-hand and well-detailed descriptions of what is happening, often broadcast right from the scene of the event. You can count on CBS Newsman too to make certain that fact is emphasized. Whether you need to know what is happening in the world in order to know what to buy or sell or manufacture, or if you just want to be in on every exciting chapter in the story of your lifetime, let CBS News keep you as fully informed as an expert. And now, once again, here is our Miss Brooks. Well, I was a little depressed about not getting the job as head of the English department, but I perked up the following night when Mr. Boyden came by and took me to the movies. As we got to the theater, he stepped up to the box office. Two tickets, please. Here, Mr. Boyden, let me buy my own ticket. Oh, and Miss Brooks, I wouldn't think of it. Well, that's very nice. You can pay me for yours when we get inside. Thank you and good night, Diamond Jim Boynton. Will you adjust window shopping? Wish you could afford so many of the things you see but your neighbors buy? Well, chances are they have money to spend because they manage their money well. And that includes a sensible savings plan. One that encourages saving for the future without straining your budget today. And here's that kind of plan. The payroll savings plan. Buying United States savings bonds regularly where you work. With payroll savings, money is set aside for you before you get your paycheck. That way, you never count on it and never miss it. It's automatic saving. Before long, you have a stack of savings bonds, each one paying back $4 at maturity for every three put in. That means extra dollars for spending in the future. And when you know money set aside for the future, you can enjoy spending extra dollars today. So plan your spending, your saving wisely. Begin buying United States savings bonds on the easy automatic payroll savings plan now. Look, starring E. Martin is produced by Larry Burns. Written and directed by Al Lewis with music by Wilbur Hatch. Mr. Conklin was played by Gail Gordon. Others in tonight's cast were Jane Morgan, Dick Crenna, Gloria McMillan, and Mary Jane Croft. Be with us again next week at the same time for another comedy episode of Our Miss Brooks. This is Roy Rowan speaking. America listens most to the CBS Radio Network.


specific verticals and end markets and what it means for you here at PMMI. I know that a lot of you are recurring members and are familiar with both the report that PMMI puts together and also our terminology and methodology and work here at ITR but for the sake of you that are first-time viewers or first-time listeners or who are just coming back for the first time in a long time, before I dive into the guts of the report I'd like to go over some of the terminology and methodology that we use here at ITR because the lingo and the terms can be a little confusing at first and I want to make sure that we're all on the same page as we move forward. Now Rebecca we can progress the slide. Okay is it showing up on your end Chris? No I'm still getting a loading screen on my side Rebecca but I have a copy I'd like computer that I can move through if you want to just walk forward with me. Sure. Great. So I've included the slide as a kind of shotgun intro to what we do it here at ITR and also some of the terms and methods that we use as I mentioned before. I encourage you to come back to this slide at any time when you're either viewing this presentation or listening to it at a different time. If you are at all confused about any of the metrics that I'm using or what exactly I'm referencing. So first there are four primary metrics that we use here at ITR to determine where your business or where an industry is within the business cycle. First we have our moving totals or our moving averages. We use the three MMT or the three month moving total or the 12 MMT or the 12 month moving total. We also refer to these obviously as quarterly totals or annual totals. We use moving totals when the metric that we're looking at makes logical sense to be summed up added together. Things such as sales revenue profits or units shipped. However we use the moving averages when it doesn't make sense logically to use an arithmetic sum. For example interest rates or indexes or percentiles. So again we have our three month moving total which is simply the some of the most recent three months of data and the 12 month moving total which is the sum of the most recent 12 months of data. We then also have our rates of change analogs for both our three MMT and our 12 MMT. You'll hear me refer to these either as the three 12 or quarterly rate of change or the 12 12 or annual rate of change. Rates of change are the primary metrics determining where we are in the business cycle because it gives us an idea of progressive gain or progressive decline as opposed to getting lost in the nominal and sometimes trendless raw data. The three 12 or quarterly growth rate is simply the most recent three MMT compared to the three MMT one year ago. So the most recent quarter of data, third quarter data or second quarter data right now compared to the second quarter data of 2016. Similarly the annual rate of change or the year over year growth rate is simply the most recent 12 MMT compared to the 12 MMT from one year prior. As I mentioned before rates of change are our primary metric for determining where we are in the business cycle and you'll hear me consistently throughout this report mentioning the four different phases of the business cycle as we define it here at ITR. You can see down the bottom of my screen we have this four colored stylized sign curve and this is our theoretical representation of the business cycle as we define it. In the bottom left hand quadrant in blue you can see we have phase A recovery. We call this phase A recovery and I like to think of it as the light at the end of the tunnel because this is when your 12 12 is below the zero line so you're declining on a year over year basis. However you're moving up toward that zero line so things are becoming progressively less and less bad as we move forward hence you're still in the tunnel but you can see the light coming ahead of you. Once your 12 12 rises over that zero line we transition to phase B accelerating growth. Again this is defined quantitatively as when the 12 12 is above the zero line and it is rising so every month you're growing at a faster and faster clip. Obviously this is the best phase of the business cycle to be in and this is where you run into a lot of structural or managerial tasks that you have to solve typing inventory, rising prices, shortened deadlines, things of that major. Then when your 12 12 reaches a peak and it begins to decline but it's still above the zero line you enter phase C slower growth. I like to consider this phase C because it's the cautionary phase of the business cycle. You're still above the year-go-level, you're still expanding your business so the industry is still expanding on a year over year basis. However that pace of growth is slowing and beginning to decline. Once your 12 12 falls below the zero line you fall into phase D recession. I know none of you likely need a formal description of phase D recession as it's often on our minds especially during troubling times like we had last year but it's important to note that this as I mentioned before is a stylized or theoretical model of the business cycle. In real life, in real industry, we don't always see all four cycles or phases of the business cycle move one after the other in a nice fashion like this. Instead we can have what's considered a soft landing. This is where you're in phase C. Your 12 12 is declining but it reaches a bottom it reaches a trough and transitions directly back to phase B without declining on a year over year basis. Again, obviously the ideal form of the business cycle that we all want to see all the time. However we know that's not always possible especially during times of economic duress or recession for example in the 2008, 2009, 2010 time period we can have the opposite happen with what we describe as a hard landing. This is when you're in phase A recovery of the business cycle. Your 12 12 is rising. You're starting to see that light at the end of the tunnel but before you transition into phase B that year over year arrives you reach a peak in fall directly back into phase D recession. So throughout this report when you hear me mentioning phase A, B, C and D in your mind think back to this little sine curve we have if at any point you forget you know the technical definition of what those different phases of the business cycle are. It's also important to note that while we look at the 12 12 in determining where a business or an industry is in the business cycle which phase it's in, it's also important to realize that the 312 the quarterly growth rate being a more reactive growth rate acts as a leading indicator to your company sales. So imagine that your 12 12 is falling toward that zero line. You're in a late phase C and you're nervous that you may fall into phase D recession. Obviously a lot hinges on calling whether growth is going to continue. You're going to have a soft landing or you are going to fall into phase D recession and you have to start you know perhaps tightening your budget, tightening your belt and dealing with that period of decline. Getting that right can be very important in the long-term growth in health of either an industry or your company as a whole. So if you're in that late phase C for example and you see that your quarterly growth rate falls below the year ago level is declining on a quarterly basis that's some strong statistical evidence that your 12 12 is going to follow in the phase D recession in the next one to two quarters. Similarly if your 12 12 is falling toward that zero line but your 312 quarterly growth rate ticks up and begins to rise again once it upwards passes that 12 12 that's a good indicator that you're going to have a nice soft landing or very brief and mild recession and transition back to that phase B accelerating growth trend. So as we go through this report we'll be looking at a lot of different leading indicators for your company and for the economy as a whole. But remember that you don't always need leading indicators for short-term decision-making processes because your 312 if you break out your sales on a quarterly or on a rate of change basis your 312 actually acts as a de facto leading indicator of between three to six months for your 12 12. So that's very important to keep in mind when judging the near term health of an industry or of your company. Then Rebecca we can move on to the next slide. Here we have US industrial production for those who have been with us for a while you know that this is one of our primary benchmarks for the US economy as a whole. It comprises three main components mining, manufacturing and public utilities. You can see that throughout the majority of 2016 even late 2015 we were in a relatively significant industrial recession in the US primarily driven by the oil patch busts and the resulting decline in commodity prices. This put a lot of downward negative pricing pressures on companies and they really cut back on their investment and production levels. As the last quarter you know that we were forecasting a growth period of accelerating growth in the second half of 2017 into 2018 followed by a period of slower but still healthy growth throughout 2018. I'm excited to say with the most recent data that's come out we have developed into a phase A, phase B trend. We are right on the year-go level at a 12-12 of 0.0% funnily enough. However that 312 that quarterly growth rate is seeing significant growth so we know that there's plenty of upside business cycle pressures to get us into that nice phase B transition during the second half of 2017 and we expect to see that imminently in the industrial economy. But without just taking the numbers for it and you can see that we also have our forecast point down here for you. You can see that as of 2017 we expect about 0.5% growth year over year and by the end of 2018 we expect to be down just about 0.7% so that growth should persist into the late third quarter early fourth quarter 2018 but we don't have to take the numbers for it. We can look at what the leading indicator evidence says. Here we have the ITR leading indicator. This is a proprietary index developed by us here at ITR that is built to lead the industrial economy by between 12 and 16 months. It gives us about a year to a year and a quarter of forward-looking forecasting power for the industrial economy. You can see again we have those business cycle pressures based on our 312 and the ITR leading indicator. We know that that phase B transition is imminent. We can go to the next slide Rebecca. Here we have US industrial production compared to the US total industry capacity utilization rate so the percentage of all of the productive capital in America that is being used at a given time. Again you can see that that utilization rate is rising. We are stressing our equipment. We are spooling up. We are getting to make more. Again very positive leading indicator signaling and positive business cycle pressures for US industrial production and anyone who follows the overall economic trends of the industrial economy as well. We can jump down to the next slide Rebecca. Again another benchmark leading indicator that I'm sure many of you follow and that you here mentioned both here at ITR and also in the news US purchasing managers index developed by the Institute for Supply Management. This is a survey of current economic activity set out to many major purchasing managers at industrial factories of all sizes throughout the US. It's important to stress that it is a survey of current economic activity and current sales and inventories as opposed to something speculative that they might get wrong or might be driven more by a gut feeling. Because of this it acts as a very robust leading indicator for the US industrial economy by about 9 to 14 months so 3 to 4, 3 to 5 quarters. You can see some significant rise up into the last quarter or so which does signal that 1212 accelerating growth trend for US industrial production into the first quarter of 2018. Importantly however you can also see that it has curved over since the last report. It's made that transition to phase C which supports our expectation of growth beginning to slow and diminish in the second third quarter of 2018. The important part of looking at these leading indicators is that it allows us to instead of relying just on theory or just on a gut feeling actually apply a quantitative method to judging or benchmarking on a month-to-month basis whether our overall economic outlook is correct and that allows us to plan for future activity. And again as we've seen from these three benchmark leading indicators our general outlook of accelerating growth into 2018 followed by slower growth throughout the year still seems to be holding. In Rebecca we can jump to the next slide. Here we have US non-defense capital new orders excluding aircraft kind of a mouthful to say but basically all this is this is B2B activity this is business investment you know the sphere of the economy that most of you at PMMI you know live and breathe in on a daily basis. You can see that it's down about 1.5 percentage points on an annual basis but it is in that phase A recovery trend and is expected to transition to year-over-year rise in late 2017 throughout the majority of 2018. Again the majority of the weakness that we saw over the past year and a half or so was primarily commodity driven where purchasing managers saw those really weak returns on investment and because of that didn't want to expand their capital fleet they weren't buying new machinery new equipment new trucks instead they were essentially making do with what they had until the economic environment seems more favorable and they could get more bang for their buck. Luckily as I mentioned before we're seeing a lot of those industrial headwinds receiving and we expect B2B activity and likely activity for most of you at PMMI to improve in late 2017 and 2018 as a result. Then Rebecca we can jump to the next slide. Shown here we have US gross domestic product GDP. The reason I included this is because it's the most holistic capture of economic activity within a country. It tries to capture literally all of the economic activity all of the sales all of the purchasing all of the production that happens within an economy to give one metric that helps describe what's going on. And you can see that we're currently in a phase B celebrating growth trend up about 1.7 percent year-over-year. That's a very healthy growth rate nothing to write home about nothing to jump with joy about but you can see we do expect to accelerate into mid 2018 before slowing through 2018 and just about kissing the zero line in 2019. And the reason this is important to note is that despite a lot of the industrial headwinds we've seen a lot of the weak commodity prices almost paradoxically those have been very healthy trends for a lot of the US economy and we've seen persistent growth since the 2008-2009 recession. And Rebecca we can jump forward a slide. And why are those weak commodity prices low gas prices low oil prices positive well you can see here that the US consumer is king when it comes to GDP. Personal consumption in the US makes up two-thirds of overall economic activity so when gas prices fall when steel prices fall when we have a deflationary pricing environment when you're getting less money for the machinery you sell ultimately that's tough for industry but it's very good for consumers to help keep the economy afloat. These strong consumer trends that we've seen you know fairly strong employment low interest rates you know healthy borrowing costs we expect those to persist in 2019 and to be some of the major drivers of economic growth that we're looking at in the US moving forward because of that while we are expecting an industrial recession in 2019 albeit a mild one industries that are more closely tied to consumer activity are going to be relatively insulated throughout the 2018 time period as the O and G patch recovers for example but moving into 2019 a turn down in consumer activity is actually going to be one of the major causal drivers of this recession that we're expecting so get your growth in now over the next 16 to 18 months but moving into 2019 if you're closely tied to US consumer activity or you have clients who are closely tied to US consumer activity that's going to be a warning sign moving to the second to third possibly even fourth quarter of 2019 depending on where you're positioned within the business cycle and Rebecca we can move on the next slide you can see here we have what I consider a spaghetti chart here of a variety of different primary metals very important commodity prices within the US industrial economy and you can see that across the board there above the year ago level zinc 34 percent lead 25 percent copper 19.8 aluminum 18.6 percent you get the picture those prices have largely recovered from their drop in 2016 and late 2015 but you can see that that 12 those growth rates have turned over they're still above the year ago level but that growth is slowing and that's important if you were here to listen to us speak during the fourth quarter of 2016 or the first quarter of 2017 we talked about the rising prices that we expected and that we're seeing now and mentioned trying to beat that trend lock in your prices do everything you can to get those long-term purchasing plans in place in order to hedge against this rise and that was a great strategy during the first half of the year not so much moving forward into 2017 you can see as those prices turn over we've already realized the majority of the pricing gains for the major commodities that we expect to see through the remainder of 2017 and into early 2018 so while the environment will likely remain steady and remain above the year ago level it's not going to be accelerating like we saw in the first half of the year in rebecca we can go to the next slide another positive trend within the u.s economy here we have us private sector employment if you read the wall street journal or the new york times or any major news that reports on economic and financial trends you'll know that we're seeing very low almost historically low unemployment rates really across the country and that's a positive sign for the u.s economy it means people are getting back to work it means that you know that labor market is tightening and we're absorbing a lot more people a lot more human capital into the production process which bodes well for growth over the next year you can see private sector employment growth is up 1.7 percent job openings are up 2.4 percent and what's important to notice is when we see job openings outpace employment growth that means that that labor market is tightening essentially demand is outpacing supply so while this is a positive trend for the u.s consumer that's ultimately resulting in obviously more jobs more money in your pocket more purchasing power it's also resulting in a rising quick rate as demand for labor increases and kind of surpasses what we can put out with the labor pool people are feeling much more confident that if they were to quit their job right now if i were to leave idr economics i could find a job relatively easily that might even pay better because of that increasing demand for labor because of that one of the big problems that we're going to look at over the next 12 to 18 months that period of prosperity that we're seeing now and expecting it's going to be managing not only rising commodity prices not only your bottom line but ultimately your labor force as well as you all know you simply can't be productive if your turnover rate keeps increasing if you're hiring people as fast as you're losing them you're simply not going to be able to turn out the amount of product that you want to there's a lot you can do to mitigate high employee turnover the most obvious and often the most unpopular one is to increase your wages you know higher prices make people more likely to stick around but also you can look for a little cost of living or quality of living increases for your employees that don't necessarily impact your bottom line directly think about giving them flexible hours maybe 10 to 6 instead of 9 to 5 that works with your production process more flexible dress codes don't make them come into work in that collared shirt and those nice shoes let them wear their jeans and their you know comic t-shirts if that's acceptable perhaps look at giving more flexible time off increased vacation pay most of these will incur costs to you in some form but normally not as directly or as significantly as you would expect to see if you just jacked up your wages and Rebecca we can jump to the next slide and ultimately as I mentioned before when we see commodity prices rise when we see tightening labor market and rising labor costs we see inflation something we haven't seen a lot of in recent years but you can see here that we have the US consumer price index of orange and then the US producer price index in blue the producer price index is what most of you will feel and that essentially is a pure hit to your bottom line that is profitability going down the drain if you keep your prices constant you can see that producer prices are slowing marginally but they're up 2.2 percent year year over year right now so again definitely inflationary pressures that are expected to stick around and that are going to be directly hindering your profitability over this period of rise if you don't find a way to mitigate it and we're back we can jump to the next slide here you can see that we have the federal open market committee that's the Fed the federal reserve the central bank their member interest rate projections this is a poll of the members on the FOMC basically asking them where they expect benchmark interest rates to be in 2017 2018 2019 and then just in the the big nebulous long term think five 10 15 years for that you can see each one of these dots is a member projection in red we have our most recent projections and in blue we have last quarter's projections and you can see that they're right on top of each other we expect to see one and a half to maybe 1.75 percent interest rates by the end of 2017 rising to the mid two and ultimately three percent by 2019 and belong and you know why do we care interest rates often seem kind of a again a nebulous difficult to wrap your mind around financial construct but essentially what this means is that the federal reserve the US central bank is saying that inflationary pressures are not going and the cost of doing business the cost of borrowing money has to increase as we move forward to deal with that because of that we want you to expect not to see as in accommodating lending environment as we've enjoyed since the 2008 2009 recession in the years to come and you want to factor that into your large capital purchases if you're on the fence about expanding new warehouses new distribution channels new machinery 2017 is a better time than 2018 2018 is a better time than 2019 if you're going to be financing this through lending something to keep in mind as we move forward this going to characterize the overall economic trends in the US in likely within most of the major developing nations abroad as well and Rebecca we can jump to the next slide so again a period of economic prosperity that we're entering into especially if you're tied to the B2B sector or the industrial sector about 18 months so a year and a half of strong rise all by a mild downturn in 2019 again a lot of positive indications in the leading indicators that we're seeing and a lot of good stuff coming out of not just the White House but the economy in general people are spending money people are happy people are confident and that's enough to grease the bearings of the US economic machine moving forward for at least the next year and a half however there are lingering concerns historically strong dollar that's going to hurt exports and make domestic products less competitive if you sell into Mexico if you sell into Canada if you sell into Asia or Europe you're going to be facing people who are essentially charging less money for their products and undercutting you just because of the strength of the US dollar and that's something you're going to have to grapple with for the foreseeable future the fundamentals are there the dollar isn't likely going to weaken significantly against most of our major trading partners over at least the next one to two years anyone who sells into verticals who are very reliant on commodity prices like oil natural gas steel copper while we're looking at general rising trends there's going to be a lot of fluctuations in the near term a lot of volatility in that rising trend so especially if you're selling into south america for example there's going to be a lot of uncertainty a lot of weakness and you might have to take strides to make your products more attractive or to mitigate or assuage some of that uncertainty if you want to continue doing business at the pace that you are now and realize your economic potential during this period of prosperity a more long-term problem china's growth going forward china is the second largest economy in the world right after the u.s. it's still significantly behind us and there's been a lot of fears that their economic growth numbers have been artificially propped up in some manner by essentially useless government investment in the past there's the classic horror story or cautionary story of the chinese government funding entire cities to boost those economic numbers to get steel moving on the railroad tracks to get workers back to work and then three years later there's no one living there because the simple market fundamentals aren't there nothing definitive that we've seen in the data going forward but especially again if you sell into china something to keep in mind that their growth rates may not be as robust and you may want to temper your expectations in that market in the long term finally a lingering global uncertainty 2016 has and 2017 has really been a roller coaster of a year when it comes to political economics we've seen brexit we've seen political upsets in the u.s. there is many talks of protectionism not just within the u.s. but within germany france the uk some some of the major economic drivers of the european bloc in protectionism while it has near-term gains economically history isn't on its side it tends to lead to decreased global competitiveness it tends to lead to increased prices domestically and generally a pullback in spending because ultimately economic growth over the past 80 90 years the period really since about the end of world war two has largely been driven by companies focus or countries excuse me focusing on what they do best the u.s. does high tech norway does oil middle east does oil to china does bulk manufacturing by doing that it's essentially one hand washing the other where we get to trade in those services and ultimately enjoy lower costs for all of our goods and services throughout the world any major divergences from that globalist policy that we've seen over the past decades such as a repeal of napda could be detrimental especially to anyone who wants to operate outside of the u.s. as well as inside of the u.s. again something to keep in mind for your long-term planning but right now it looks like napda will be redesigned to the net benefit of most of the countries in north america we've seen political victories in france and germany this suggests the e you open market will continue and ultimately that this period of economic prosperity and economic growth that we're looking forward to through 2018 isn't going to be hindered by any nationalist movements again just a threat that we have to monitor as we go forward and then we can jump forward to the next slide and now we've prepared for you some management objectives to take in 2017 and into the first half of 2018 as well again for those of you who are new to itr or new to pmmi who are here for the first time take note write this down keep it in the back of your mind for those of you who have been listening to us in the first half of 2017 you'll notice that you probably already have this written down because our overall macroeconomic perspective our expectations of growth in 2017 and 2018 have not changed and neither have our management objectives first and foremost you can see you've bolded an underline know where you and your markets are in the business like just because you know what the economy is doing doesn't mean you know what your relationship to the economy is and that ties down to our last and otherwise most important bullet here follow the must watch leading indicators pmmi ikri housing bond deals and work with your team to find out where you are in the production cycle in relation to those primary leading indicators this is the only way that you can truly and fully prepare for the business cycle as we define it moving forward over the next three years continue to budget for growth during the next 18 months and invest in operational efficiencies train up your employees by those machinery your productivity over the next three years has to have to at least match wage and price increases otherwise you're going to be enjoying what we call profitless prosperity a period of growth where you raise your top line but don't manage to raise your bottom line because inflation and higher wages are eating into that profitability and that's really what we expect to see for a lot of people who aren't paying attention to the business like paying attention to the macro economic trends over the next year and a half and finally ensure that your employee development doesn't stagnate we see that quick rate rising we see laborers of all skills are in demand make sure you are satisfying your employees listen to what they want and give them what they need to stay for you and increase that productivity and rebecca we can jump to the next slide now that we have our kind of broad stroke economic update for the US economy as a whole we're going to move into the forecast that you receive on a quarterly basis with the PMI quarterly report and talk about some of the trends that we're seeing within some of the smaller verticals smaller industries within the US here we have food production US food and foods preparation production currently up 2.6 percent year every year and it's just transitioned to a phase c slower growth trend you can see that we expect about six to seven months of that decelerating trend that 1212 moving downward growth slowing but most importantly we are expecting one of those nice soft landings based on the rising wages the rising employment really all the strong consumer trends that put money in people's pocket we see historically that when US consumers have money they eat and they eat out and they buy food and we expect that to bolster this industry over the next three years you can see on the left side of this chart we have the 12 month moving averages for this index and you can see that despite the period of slower growth it really is moving up into the right and if you're involved in the food food preparation or food packaging verticals that's good news for you over the next three years we can jump to the next slide here related we have beverages coffee and tea production when we say beverages we also include soda we include liquid flavorings and also beer and beer brewing you can see that we're up 4.6 percent year over year also in that phase c transition but again we expect the soft landing in a very similar growth profile that we saw in overall food production again you can see that 12 MMA on the left side of this chart moving up into the right signaling that demand will rise consistently for the next three years as is really the norm for this industry except during periods of severe recession like we see all the way over there on the left in late 2007 and 2008 when it comes down to beer the beer industry and brewing in general we really do see that americans love beer and they're buying it and that's showing in the numbers one important trend to keep track of though is the cracked brewery micro brew association the american craft beer association as of 2014 reported that cracked brewing gained as much as 11 percent market share in the overall beer industry in the u.s. it's very significant so imagine one out of 10 beer dollars sold are cracked brewing this is a up-and-coming industry that with millennial tastes for smaller kind of homegrown locally grown more regional goods is likely going to continue to see some significant upward momentum in the coming years especially as millennials move into more senior positions and have more money to spend on the more expensive goods they prefer so having it be a relatively new industry consider targeting the more local or regional producers and distributors if you're involved in canning and bottling that's often in untapped growth industry that we've seen and then we can jump into the next slide which is us pharmaceutical and medical device production down 1.5 percent year over year is in a phase the recessionary trends right now but you can see that there has been some lateral movement here we don't expect to see much more decline in that 1212 and are expecting a transition to phase a recovery in the second half of 2017 however we do expect to finish the year down 1.5 before accelerating up to not quite 2 percent in 2018 and we can jump forward to the next slide here we have us personal care products production i kind of lump these together in my mind again as we saw with food and beverage production these are two relatively closely related industries that both rely to some extent upon the state of health care in the u.s in general again you can see that we expect a phase a transition over the next year and we will finish 2017 down about 2.1 percent year over year before accelerating again through 2018 becoming up 2.2 percent year over year with the news on the aca obama care coming out of washington in the recent days it looks like obama care is around to stay at least for the near term as the republican party didn't quite manage to get the votes they needed to repeal it and now i'm not concerned in this context with whether obama care is good for the u.s or bad for the u.s or if we should do something else but ultimately compared to the alternatives that have been kicked around the american care act obama care looks like it will ensure more americans than the alternatives and again despite the overarching positivity or negativity of that more insured americans means more drugs it means more trips to the dentist to the hospital it means more medical devices it means insurance will pick up more goods that you can get at right aid or at cvs and that will help to bolster this industry over the next three years and ensure that the recession we're moving into in 2019 really doesn't fall any further than the truck we are in right now so while we do expect some growth on a yearly basis in 2018 over the next three years you can really expect these industries remain relatively stagnant relatively steady then we can jump down to the next slide where we have us chemicals and cleaning products production currently up 1.6 percent year over year at a phase v accelerating growth trend we expect that trend to persist into early 2018 finishing 2017 up 2.2 percent year over year before slowing to the low single digit about 0.4 percent growth as of 2018 we do expect a mild recession in 2019 you can see where our forecast error bars kind of just kiss the zero line and move along it you can see that any recession that we see is likely to be just around zero percent growth and will likely be a period of slower growth as opposed to feeling like a true recession that we saw about 10 years ago we can jump to the next slide we have durable hard goods components and parts production this is another one of those economic series that sounds like a bunch of gibberish but essentially what durable hard goods components of parts production is is anything that is expected to last more than two or three years that you buy either as a consumer or as a business this includes things such as computer parts and electronics household appliances consumer goods like jewelry home goods cutlery instruments and toys and auto parts and accessories so you can see it's a very broad economic indicator and there are a lot of different trends going on with it during a different period you can see that it has recently transitioned to 0.4 percent or to phase b that soft landing up about half a percent year over year and we expected to accelerate through 2017 finishing the year up not quite two and a half percent before slowing through 2018 again recessionary pressures are going to be mixed in 2019 and are going to be dependent really upon where your specific verticals are oriented within this market to kind of explicate how there are very different trends going on in the industry household appliances are currently up 5.7 percent earn a slowing growth trend computers parts and electronics goods are up 3.1 percent year over year while auto parts productions are currently in phase b accelerating growth and are up six and a half percent year over year all three of these are likely to be growth segments moving into at least late 2018 so if you're positioned to take use of or make use of growth in these verticals this really is a time of positivity where you want to start thinking about expansions and about what is next within your production cycle and finally now that we've talked about some of the and we can move on to the next slide by the way Rebecca now that we've talked about some of the overarching trends within the U.S. and some of the microeconomic vertical level trends that we're seeing I want to extrapolate that out to the U.S. or to the world as a whole and take a brief look at what we're seeing in various different parts of the international economy you can see here that we have a variety of global leading indicators I in those blue words you can see the OECD that's some of the largest developed countries the five major Asian economies Brazil Canada China India Japan all major economic players of the international team all of their leading indicators are moving up into the right they are signaling positivity they are signaling diminished headwinds against international trade and that's a good thing you can see on this chart in this red orange in blue we have different purchasing managers indexes like the one we saw in the U.S. we have the Eurozone we have the European Union and we have the JPMorgan global manufacturing PMI those are all generally rising but you see how similar to the U.S. there's some early signs of those graphs turning over of transitioning to that phase C which supports our expectation kind of asserts that what we're expecting about that slower growth period in 2018 is really going to be mirrored in the international economy as a whole which again making up about a quarter of the world's dust our economic production it's not unusual to see the international economy follow along with whatever trends we're seeing in the U.S. we can jump down to the next slide Rebecca here you can see we have a variety of graphs showing industrial production the more green you are the more positive the more red you're negative again we've already talked about the U.S. Canada is up 1.6 percent if you're selling into Canada that's a good thing Mexico is kind of a wash just about even with the year ago level there's a lot of volatility within a lot of markets especially those markets in Mexico that are poised to sell into the U.S. border states as we watch what's happening with NAFTA if we do manage to renegotiate NAFTA in a way that's mutually beneficial with the U.S. and Mexico we expect to see those industrial trends picking up right in line with the industrial demand that we're seeing in the U.S. in the second half of 2017 and moving into 2018 getting jumped to the next slide now South America more of a mixed bag in South America she lay down about a point and a half year over year Brazil in a relatively deep prolonged recession obviously the Petrobras scandals presidential scandals a lot of politics interfering with normal market activities coupled with the turn down in oil prices we saw last year that really hit Brazil hard take caution in Brazil 2018 is going to be better for them but you were not likely to see significant growth opportunities especially compared to what you enjoyed in this market in the earlier half of the early 2000s but you can see otherwise Argentina Peru Colombia up between a half a point a point and a half in phase B accelerating growth trends definitely some positivity in South America especially as we move up toward that central region and more of the countries that do some trade with Mexico you can jump to the next slide Rebecca Europe industrial production you can see a lot more grain here France Germany UK most of Eastern Europe in general seeing one two three percent year over year growth very healthy with a few notable exceptions excuse me Germany not France France just about even with the year ago level really grappling with some restrictive labor laws persistently high unemployment in some currency competition from Eastern Europe they do have some upside business cycle potential likely to transition into that light green sphere moving into 2018 not necessarily a period of significant economic growth though like we'll see in the rest of Europe also in the deep red Norway again having trouble recovering from the commodity price shock in the downturn in the oil and gas market that we saw over the last year year and a half we can jump down to the next slide which brings us to Asia much more positive you can see primarily China up six and a half percent as China goes their neighbors go to they are a huge driver of economic activity not just in this region but in the world as a whole we've seen demand for steel and coal increasing from China which does suggest that the economic activity they're seeing is sustainable as they really do have their private and public corporations scrambling for those base industrial materials India another one of the world's best performing emerging markets up 4.1 percent you can see Singapore up 6 percent Philippines up 13 percent Australia again just up 0.2 percent about even with the year ago level and as one of the world's largest producers of coal and steel again the turnout and mining and the commodity price shock really hit them hard but again as their neighbor China starts to ramp up their demand we expect to see that light pink move much closer to the green side of things in 2018 that gives us a nice little global perspective I'd be more than happy to answer more questions as they come after this Rebecca we've moved to the final slide I have for you today and again this is a slide that I want to leave you with that I've had up since the first half of the year and I want to stress it's important actions to take as a manager as a purchasing manager before the 2019 recessionary period again primarily no are your specific verticals going to have a harder soft landing in 2019 if you don't know that you cannot apply these bullet points but once you learn where you are in the business cycle where your specific verticals are moving with PMMI and us here at ITR you can start applying some of these concepts and really position yourself to be an industry leader instead of an industry follower as the market turns down in 2019 that's all I have for you today again thank you for coming thank you for listening and Rebecca I am going to turn it back over to you Chris thank you so much for the great reflection of the current economy and issues at hand for the packaging and processing industry I'd like to open the session up for questions if anyone has any questions that you would like to have answered you can message them in the bottom of your screen there's a message chat box or you can press star two to unmute your phone and we'll give people just a moment to see if we have any questions also Rebecca I'd like to take this moment to mention that if any of your members or their colleagues have questions after the fact that they'd like to answer they can email either you have them forward them over to me and my team or email ITR directly at questions at ITReconomics.com and we would be more than happy to do a little research for you and get back to you thanks Chris that was great I don't think we have any questions at this time and like Chris said if you do have any questions as follow-up please feel free to email Chris or myself or Paula Feldman with those questions and we will get those answered for you on behalf of PMMI thank you so much for participating today as a final note you will receive an email to complete a brief evaluation on today's webinar please complete the evaluation as soon as you can to let us know how we can improve and also this webinar will be posted on PMMI.org and thank you so much to everyone who attended thanks Chris thank you Rebecca


Nano-fibrillated cellulose, NFC, is a bio-based nanomaterial with unique properties that make it ideal for use in various applications. Surface modification of NFC is essential to improve compatibility with matrices and to add new functionalities. The most common methods include physical adsorption, molecular grafting, and polymer grafting. These techniques are discussed in detail in this review. This article was authored by Julian Braz, Mohamed Nasser Belgesam and Karim Massoum.