Okay, very good morning to you. I hope you're doing well. It's Wednesday the 14th of July and I'm going to have a chat with you about transitory inflation. I've got some graphics here that I think really sum up the rationale behind why the market moved in the fashion that it did yesterday. And then a quick look ahead we've got another central bank decision. The Bank of Canada expected to taper for the third time comes after a hawkish twist from the RBNC overnight in New Zealand, which has promoted strength in our local currency. And then we've got Jerome Powell, of course, speaking today, speaking in front of the House Financial Services Committee in his semi-annual testimony, and what can we expect from that later on this afternoon? So just having a look at the charts overall in terms of market sentiment here at the European Open and things are relatively flat. The major currency pairs just up ever so marginally. A cable you can see here has had a bit of volatility on that WIC extension, as you can see. Actually, if I put it down to a five minute time frame, you'll be able to see it better. We've had a bit of a pop in price and a fade. The pop coming on the back of the latest UK CPI data, 2.5% for June, above expectations of 2.2. So quite strong. In fact, very strong CPI numbers, upside surprise, but the market fading that move because, don't forget, the Bank of England said in its most recent policy beating last month that inflation is likely to exceed 3%, but would later fall back and should not affect monetary policy. So in a similar type of fashion, somewhat to the Fed transitory argument, short-term price pressures likely to lead to more increases there. And so that number being somewhat after the knee-jerk reaction faded on that initial move by the pivot level by FX traders this morning. Otherwise, looking elsewhere, index futures are pretty flat overall, slightly negative comes after a touch softer close on Wall Street. The S&P in the Dow finished down about a third of 1% and Nasdaq was basically unchanged, just slightly negative 0.02%. Otherwise, oil had a bit of an extension yesterday of recent gains. So we've moved right back up again to increase levels for WTI crude. We're trading 75.08 at the moment, managing to get above. You can see that kind of double top of price action from the seventh and the eleventh, and that's providing a bit of support. You've got the pivot tucked just underneath there with that previous high scene yesterday morning. So quite a nice area of technical support now for price. And that would be as we head in towards some oil infantry data a bit later on today. That did come with a few things yesterday to help promote some of the oil strengths before I go into the API's that came out last night. One was that supplies are set to remain significantly tight amid the deadlock among members of the OPEC plus alliance, as according to the IEA yesterday, and also the combination of that with the fact that the revival, if you like, of the Iranian nuclear deal is looking at a stalemate for the time being. Some commentary talking about they could be in mid-August, nothing definitive as yet, and so any threat to the deluge of new supply hitting the market from Iran is looking ever increasingly less likely. Then we had the API all of the trees last night. So while I'm on the subject of oil, let's have a quick look at that. We had a drawdown of 4 million. Expectations were for a similar type number, a draw of 4.4, Cushing draw 1.585 million, gasoline draw 1.545 distillates at 3.699 million. So not really too much of the way of any reaction to the API is to be quite honest. And so technically I'm just keeping an eye on that as a range at the moment of that key area, looking nice of support on the downside. Fixed income definitely did see some moves yesterday and this will take me into my charts then and we can start talking a little bit about transitory inflation and why that argument is still alive and kicking and likely to be reaffirmed in summary by Powell later today is my baseline kind of expectation. But here this is the chart of the US tenure or T-notes and you can see here two distinct price movements yesterday, one being the US CPI shock and horror, very high number, knee-jerk reaction and then recovery in pretty rapid fashion as the market turned around very quickly on the back of what was under the bonnet which was again pressures emanating from more temporary factors. And then actually the more longer lasting impact move came after we had a poor 30-year auction rounding off some of the supply this week and actually that is what really weighed on the more long end of the curve. And the curve is what we're going to talk about a little bit as well. So let me transition my screen and let's talk about inflation. So definitely from a trading point of view, I was pretty quick to comment in our community and I was tweeting yesterday that as soon as that inflation number came out, you always get that kind of algorithmic led knee-jerk spike and particularly when it deviates so far out of the consensus estimates and indeed the top end of the ranges, yesterday numbers on the year-in-year and core figures were exceedingly high. And you get that knee-jerk spike very much in reflection of that more binary process and the fact that then you get the traditional reaction which is a shot higher in yields, the dollar equities fall, they were particularly susceptible as well given they were sitting at record levels. But then the first thing to do I think with inflation metrics right now is go on to the BLS, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and look at the actual report and identify where is it where these inflationary pressures are coming. And this is a look at a quite good graphic I thought which is talking about sharp price movements in a handful of categories accounting for a quarter of the total price index explain all of the unusually rapid inflation in June and that has been the case in recent months. So here you've got three kind of distinct sections and you've got pandemic idiosyncrasies underlying inflation and then then Jan 95 to Feb 2020 average inflation. And so here you can see that tied to the pandemic you've got used cars new vehicles and parts reopening categories what is that well that's things like restaurants hotels airline fairs recreation services motor vehicle insurance these types of things. And then you've got energy as well and so if you actually look at just those those areas alone you can see it contributes largely to the bulk of the inflation pressure and hence the reason why underlying inflation so looking at groceries housing and all other areas is still fairly benign in comparison when you extrapolate that out of the data. And hence the reason why the title not to panic and why the market faded that move very quickly even the used car vehicle section you can see here was such a large contributor and even more so than the very high numbers that we had in previous two reports so it was quite evidently clear quickly that the transitory argument would probably be kept alive on the back of those numbers. What goes up must come down most of the recent acceleration inflation compared to before the pandemic can be attributed to a handful of small categories facing idiosyncratic pressures and that should abate and so too should the disinflation coming from the other side and this is looking at contributions change in yearly CPI inflation rate from Feb 2020 to June 2021 and as you can see here energy used cars trucks the successful reopening all of these things have really been chiefly tied to that of the pandemic specifically so taking that out it's a lot more banana picture than what the headlines would suggest and so few other things to be aware of them the movement in the yield curve was quite interesting yesterday effectively if you think of the yield curve shape where traditional curve means that the yield at the front end would be typically lower and then it goes up in a uniform fashion the further out in time that you go 10 years 30 and beyond what's happened yesterday is that the the long end of the curve has been fairly fixed whereas the short end has come up and hence that curve shape has flattened a little bit and what we've had here as you can see is the two-year yield and the reaction that we had to inflation so two-year yield certainly did rise and maintain that move higher now the ultimate understanding here is is that in the short end the timing for the Fed to taper is inevitable and it is coming and the fact that inflation is remaining at the levels that it is irrespective of how much of that is transitory the point being is is that yields are going to rise in the short term now if you actually start to look further out though this is looking at the 10-year yield you can see that the yield reaction was initially as you would imagine higher after inflation report but then faded very quickly and actually it was weak demand in the 30-year bond auction which didn't come until much later 6 p.m. London time that actually saw that move distinctly higher so in fact it's more that we the inflation figures are not really changing the longer-term outlook but they're significantly altering the timing of short-term policy tweaks and so hence the reason why the short end has been more sensitive to hold on to those moves where the long end is a little bit more questioning of what growth would look like in the longer term in that respect the other final graphic then that I thought was quite fitting with this kind of conversation is this and this was looking at that timeline you know we've got a we've got a predefined timeline with the semi-annual testimony today with Powell we've then got at the end of July the Fed meeting the Fed minutes then the Jackson Hall symposium comes at the end of August and then that leads us up into the September FOMC meeting where we get the new dot plots so they're the they're the the predefined big events of time that we know now this is looking on the left hand side at speculative dollar positioning and what it's suggesting is it could turn net long ahead of Jackson Hall and this is based on the previous patterns of past hawkish Fed shifts so this goes back and looks at things like the 2018 late cycle hikes the 15 16 cycle hikes the taper tantrum back in 2013 and so on and so forth you can access this graphic I've shared it on my my Twitter account and what it's suggesting is that going into these events and obviously this is just a function of what market positioning is the Fed are kind of have started to I guess accelerate conversations about tapering and as such then markets start to believe that that process is going to come in time and so they start to build in a more long dollar position ahead of these big predefined events for then the confirmation to come now what that would generally suggest then is that you get dollar positioning that tends to tighten around these events and so subsequently lends its hand to a more supportive dollar movements and then you get that kind of profit taking as then the event in itself starts to transpire and actually when the Fed do begin in effect actual tapering at that point we've already way gone beyond pricing it in and the confirmation of it is almost by the rumor you know by the pricing and anticipation of taper sell the fact that it's actually happening when it gets confirmed type movement and as you can see here this is looking at a price graph of looking at the weeks going in you can see that dollar positioning typically takes about four weeks going into a major Fed event and we're really within that window at the moment and certainly these hot inflation numbers certainly build into that and as you can see from the two-year yield moving higher but then as we go further out we go two months out after so let's say it gets formalized by the time it gets to say end of this year when we're getting close to the point of the actual initiation physically of tapering the dollars already started to fade that move so again the market in simple terms is always forward looking and at the moment then the previous historical data points would suggest that the media median change in dollar positioning around Fed tightening events we're in that run-up phase at the moment and certainly the the CPI helped some of that yesterday there was a Fed speaker yesterday who did comment Fed's Mary Daly said that the June Surgeon US inflation will likely be temporary she actually specifically referred to used cars as we've just looked at as a major contributing factor to the temporary nature of inflation and she did say she was bullish about the economy going into the fall and said it's now appropriate for the central bank to begin discussing scaling back its monthly asset purchases which could start at the end of the year or early 2022 so again in fitting with that explanation of that yield curve reaction all right well that you know that pretty much it on that side for any of these graphics if you do want to check them out if you need them as a reference point again they're all available I've tweeted it this morning from my account a few things elsewhere overnight the Kiwi dollars really on fire at the moment it's made managed to break above a short-term technical top let me just bring up the chart and I can in fact show you so just bear with me one second looking at the Kiwi dollar you can see this this move we've had here initiated from the overnight session has propelled us above this double top that we've been trading here and through the ninth and the 12th and in fact actually if I squeeze that price you can see that's been quite a significant level for the Kiwi just above this 70 mark and so we've seen some acceleration here to the upside and actually coming in close proximity to if I just mark this up you got those highs that was seen here on the 7th and also these areas here so I'm interested to see probably as a short-term target here for very further run-up in the Kiwi as 70 36 in the futures we're trading them in the matter of 10 pit range at that moment so you can see we shot up broke through that double top used that as a bit of a floor of support and then for this push-up as Europe has come into the market so why is the Kiwi firming up well this is the situation overnight you had the RBNZ held the cash rate at 0.25% but they said it would halt bond buying under its large-scale asset purchase program by July 23rd the statement omitted a previous reference to the need for considerable time and patience to achieve its inflation and employment goals investors now actually from a market perspective are pricing in a hike a rate hike in November up from 82% chance before the statement and in fact the market is now pricing a 76% probability of a move in August now that they've actually are going to end their bond buying again that sequence generally then a period to see how the economy performs and the market adapts to that removal of the stimulus and then looking to initiate the rate-hiking cycle which markets have quite bullish on in New Zealand at the moment given the way they've managed to contain the impacts of Covid the underlying inflationary risks and so forth to then commence their tightening cycle the other central bank we've got today of course is the Bank of Canada they're also a G to come out later on today and what can we expect for the Bank of Canada well they're set to announce another round of tapering and in fact this will be the third round of tapering from the BOC and they're likely to reduce it from two two billion Canadian dollars worth of purchases from three they've basically gone from five to four to three and so forth scaling it down in each taper that I don't think will come as much a surprise I think all economists surveyed unanimously expecting that to materialize so just keeping an eye out for the types of commentary that comes out and around that release later on today and then a quick look at the calendar for today so the UK CPIs are already out as I said so then we're looking for the next major releases which isn't going to come to the afternoon we get the US PPI numbers the Bank of Canada comes at three the DOE Olympic trees then following the APIs last night at 3 30 got the Fence Beige book tonight at 7 p.m. but obviously in front of that you've got Jerome Powell presenting the semi-annual monetary policy report to a house financial services committee remember he'll repeat that to the Senate the house is always the more important one because it just gets recycled to the other Chamber of Congress on Thursday session so you definitely keep an eye out for that and of course this comes after the biggest rise in US consumer prices for 13 years in America so of course he's going to be challenged on this but my expectation is he's not going to deviate given the aforementioned reasons about the transitory nature of these price pressures and so although it's important to monitor what he says I don't think you're going to get too much out of it right now to be honest but the risk here is hints towards tapering if it comes from Powell himself you could see a bit of a hawkish reaction to that further acceleration of dollar perhaps a bit of movement in short-end yields and that could weigh on things like gold some of the precious metals and some of the major currency pairs if that were to happen because I would say it's probably a lesser expectation that he'll say anything too much today so if he did come out a bit more explicit with the hints on tapering certainly you might get a short-term more hawkish reaction. Other speakers ECB Schnabel speaking at 1.45 this afternoon, Bank of England Ramsden speaking at 6 p.m. and non-voting FMC member Neil Kashkari speaks at 6.30 and then from an earnings perspective following JP and Goldman's they did actually finish Lowe yesterday they underperformed the general market by about a percent or so both of the banks pretty similar in terms of the composition the lack of kind of volatility through Q2 saw their trading activity decrease which we were talking about yesterday is very much expected but IBD asset management divisions were particularly strong and that was the kind of breakdown of the investment bank and you've got Bank of America, Wells Fargo, City and BlackRock all coming out today so more financial names ahead of the opening bell a bit later on. All right gonna leave it there let you guys get on with the day so hopefully that was useful and any questions at all just drop me a line let me know I'd be happy to help thanks very much take care


Good evening. Welcome to the 6 p.m. Press Conference here on the CZU complex My name is Jonathan Cox deputy chief for Cal Fire San Mateo Santa Cruz unit and line officer on the incident As always if you could mute your cell phones take any conversations away from the press conference area and keep your masks on at all Times it would be greatly appreciated Additionally with that there will be moments at the end of the speakers to ask any questions for some more specific answers With that I'll get right into the incident update for this evening here on the CZU Complex like we can confirm that the fire is now 81,137 acres 81,137 The good news is we are up to 21% containment. So that is obviously an increase over This morning There are however still 20 over 24,000 structures that are threatened due to this incident And unfortunately the number of structures that we can confirm that have been destroyed is 590 of the 590 structures destroyed 11 of those are in San Mateo County and 579 of those are in Santa Cruz County Currently there are still mass evacuations in place across the incident area We also have additional crews that have come in throughout the day and we now have 1,982 firefighting personnel assigned to the incident with that I'll hand it over to Cal Fire Incident management team three Chief Mark Brunton for an operations update Good evening. So we had another good successful day of suppression on the fire Whether I threw a few hinderances our way that I'll go ahead into later But overall some good success and continuous successes as we speak this evening As mentioned earlier in the vision golf kilo that line is still continuing to hold that Is very critical as far as keeping any sort of fire spread To the north and to the east which would potentially threaten Santa Clara County But that's shut off and we continue to monitor and mop up patrol that and that's looking really good continue more line construction and and letting the fire back down to our control line and butano that And that that's just creeping down the weather is helping mitigate that But that's part of our strategy so that we can bring it to more favorable ground in which to work work on The community's pescadero the Honda the Lamar are looking really good So we're just continuing to monitor that part of the fire and trying to wrap that up to make that safe Working down the highway one corridor that we're having more and more success with that putting in a troll line Where we need to some of the fires self-mitigated as I've said before and that and we're just continue to monitor that Davenport's looking really good. I know today. They were working on Re-energizing the the electricity that community and so we're trying to start to get that up and running a lot of work along highway One by PGD restoring the infrastructure there as well as Caltrans to make sure that the road is safe to pass our Line to the south continues to hold looks really good That's protecting the communities of Santa Cruz and the UC campus So I was just there just about an hour ago It looks really solid and we're very comfortable with that in particular because we're going to start seeing a weather change We're going to see a northerly push of a wind moving into this this weekend So I feel comfortable that that's going to hold and what'll be also good with that wind blowing on that is what we call a wind Test and that means that the lines will hold based on the wind an adverse wind to it So we believe that that will survive a wind test and to us That's a that's a great measure of success because it means that that fires extinguished in our lines are doing what they're supposed to do The highway nine corridor, so Felton's looking really good. We've got a good line around about three-quarters of it And we're continuing to put line up through the the highway nine quarter behind the communities of Ben Lohman Boulder Creek A lot of crews as we're getting crews in we've received a few more hand crews come in and they are working We've put them right to work. So we're having a lot of success with that and we're going to continue to have a lot of success with that and Down it just between Ben Lohman and Felton. I was talking about a burnout operation just came directly from that operation right now We're taking that slow methodical the weather conditions Had to delay that operation because as we saw today Some fog that stuck around a long time It kept the the fuel moisture and the relative humidity up So we really had to wait before we started lighting that fire so that we have an effective burn and One that we can control readily. So as I left the line shortly ago, it's looking good. It's burning. Well It's doing exactly what we wanted to do It's just going to take us a little bit longer to accomplish that mission Then we originally thought because of the weather and but we're looking at making that line go Just on the backside of Felton Just below Ben Lohman and tie into to highway nine So that'll give us a good level of protection for the community of Felton as and then we'll continue up as We stated up the highway nine-quarter Bonnie dude by dudes looking really good We've got a lot of resources in there. They continue to mop up around homes They're continuing to find any fire that are in some of the ravines and gullies and drainages and start to Extinguish that and mop that up There are a lot of hazard trees in there. We've had a number of trees fall across Felton Empire grade road that we've had to bring the our specialty crews in to to open up the road Cut those trees down and also we're going and eliminating any of the hazard trees the ones that are burning out that could pose a hazard To our personnel or any of the utility company folks that are working in that area to start restoring that infrastructure Which they are doing on our heels as we Open up the roadways throughout the fire and also through the 236 corridor Working with Caltrans so that we can move deeper and get into the park And and then the utility company's coming behind to start setting up their infrastructure to to restore one Matter to note regarding our burn operation Unfortunate situation is as I said this morning we have highly qualified individuals that are setting up planning and running that operation one of our Personnel the commanders that is setting up and running that operation. Unfortunately last night Somebody broke into his fire department vehicle and stole his protective equipment Sad to say so it kind of delayed the operation as well. He was able to get restocked with equipment and Continue forward with his mission. So a little bit of delay unfortunately due to that circumstance But Scott's Billy Valley Police Department is working in conjunction with our law enforcement officials to deal with that issue and Moving forward with that Aircraft aircraft unfortunate due to the the weather today couldn't really get a lot of hours of flying. So as I've been saying in previous days We've been able to max out our aircraft drop a lot of water today Wasn't as successful unfortunately because we just could not fly the aircraft due to the weather as soon as we had the small Wind of opportunity we did and we were only able to drop about 10,000 gallons of water still not bad, but We you know in order to support our ground troops You just couldn't do the maximum effort that we've been seeing the past few days That's just part of the job and the nature of the job that we have to be able to bounce back from that And we improvised from that and just continued on with our march up Throughout the fire line to take care of it and start mitigating that circumstance for us We believe that coming weather that we were seeing the next few days It's going to be better for us and we're gonna have better days ahead and be able to maximize that that effort. Thank you Speaking next from the Santa Cruz County Sheriff's Office is Chief Deputy Chris Clark. Well, good evening So again today this operational period marks number four the fourth operational period We've had so far where we haven't needed to arrest anyone. I think that's a positive We did have to to cite one person and I'll talk about that here in just a minute But I wanted to kind of go through some numbers with you as I typically do so today We had 70 personnel working Throughout the San Lorenzo Valley tonight. We're gonna have we're gonna have 60 folks doing the same task of Security checks and welfare checks and and responding to calls for service. That's 11 of our folks that will be working 20 from in County and then 20 mutual aid in terms of calls for service. We we received and responded to nine welfare checks 15 and 15 suspicious people. So in regards to the person we cited this morning I spoke about a Gentleman 73 old gentleman who was initially evacuated Left his home and then on Monday night decided he wanted to get back in so And then this might this might be happening It might have happened in the past But I want to kind of describe a situation that we dealt with today as a result of someone sneaking into an evacuated area And then ultimately ultimately needing help. So that's what happened to this person. He wanted to get back to his house He found a route Kind of on the outskirts of the evacuated zone and then decided to make his way through a trail and unfortunately he got lost He got into an area that was very steep And luckily for him he literally he survived two nights in the woods two nights until he was able to make that phone call Until his friend made a phone call on his behalf Last night which then initiated our response to it And so then we became involved and as I mentioned this morning We were going to devote all kinds of resources to finding him and that's exactly what we did So we launched a search and rescue operation But just in terms of kind of what that operation looks like it's 100 for today For example for finding this person 126 man hours Three hours of ambulance time two hours of helicopter time because we needed a helicopter to extricate the person Because of the steep terrain and then one of our SAR personnel Unfortunately was hurt when they crashed on a mountain bike when they were out out looking I bring that up I you know, I feel bad for this person because you know, they're they're they're just trying to they want to get back home And I absolutely we absolutely get it But we had to divert all kinds of resources to to help them and so I put that out there because that's that's ultimately what it can take if someone decides not to heed an evacuation order And then get in a place where they need help Luckily for him he he's going to make it. He's going to be okay. And so he was taken for some medical treatment and and and issued a citation in terms of missing persons cases We had some progress on that front also. So as I mentioned this morning, we were up to six Today our detectives narrowed that number down. We're down to three now So three total missing persons cases and I'll give you their names and their ages Just so that you guys have it and potentially the public and those watching can help us Potentially if you know these people you hear a name sounds familiar And the you know if it and you know them and you can call them or know where they are call us Uh, one of them is 70 year old Henry rinky. That's Henry rinky and he's 70 He was last seen on august 20th 21 year old shane smith also last seen august 20th and 37 year old mica Zoki and he was last seen on august 15th now The one thing that our detectives have advised me is that these three folks Right now preliminarily we don't believe them to be fire victims But we don't have enough information information to confirm that without a doubt So I mean there's there could be more to come on that But at least what we see now we we we feel that there's not necessarily a strong Likelihood that they they felt victim to fire But there'll be more to come on that and hopefully if you hear these names and you and you know them You'll you you'll either tell them to call us or or uh, or you call us Which we greatly appreciate And I want to touch on repopulation. It's a huge thing I mean just is The anxiety level being evacuated out of an area I mean the anxiety of of wondering when I'm when am I going to get back home? Like we can absolutely empathize with you there and so Uh, I kind of wanted to give you some rough kind of figures because if you're sitting at home And you're wondering well, when can I get back to my house? So With regards to like scott's fell out and I don't want to put this in perspective So our repopulation plan which we've had folks working on for the last few days Uh, is systematic. It's thorough Because in these mountains as you know, there's limited opportunity for ingress and egress So the roads there's only certain ways in and out So we want to do this systematic And we also want to do it when it's safe and when there's infrastructure there to support safety and support people being able to live In those areas we take information from from our fire partners and we we put these plans together So what does that look like so for the city of scott's valley and kind of the unincorporated area scott's valley? We're talking about Day or days and I say day or days because things Things can change and I don't want to give anyone false hope But I also want to kind of give you a rough framework To kind of to kind of wrap your mind around a little bit if you're wondering when I might get back to my house So for the city of scott's valley in those areas to the north and south Day or days and then as you move to the west towards the city of felton It's days. I would estimate days or potentially a week and that's really dependent upon You know and as you mentioned today or as a chief brunton mentioned they're having Great success on really isolating the fire containing the fire Especially with these fire lines that they're that they're developing along that highway nine corridor So with that felton and then I'm going to and then basically as it goes north It's it's like it's it's weak to weeks potentially as you get further north as we progress into heavily Damaged more heavily damaged areas right towards boulder creek You're talking, you know, but weeks potentially Because of the the fire damage that's in that area, especially the 236 area that that It's west of boulder creek and then weeks again for for bonnie dune And and really it's just given the amount of fire damage. It's in that area. I mean cal fire. I went up there today Uh, you know cal fires, they're they're trying to put out a fire, but at the same time You've got pg and e up there trying to restore lines and lines are dropped everywhere if you've seen pictures And then, you know, there were tree services today up there marking trees and trying to fell trees To to make the roads a little more passable, but there's a lot of road work to be done And then it's there's a lot of road work to be done on the north coast And in the swat and last chance area a lot of work to be done up there So that's kind of a rough framework of kind of what that repopulation plan looks like in a rough sort of idea of when I might be able to get back home And then in terms of so tonight so they uh, so ucse is going to repopulate You're going to see a notice go out shortly from uh from cal fire And so they'll they'll talk more about that here in just a minute, but uh, But chief oe so over the over at the school wanted me to put out a message to you that With regards to school same Thought process with repopulating the school systematic And if you if you were going back to the school to pay attention to emails and then and follow those instructions It's going to be a phased reopening. So definitely if uh, if you if you live at ucse Watch your email closely and then um, and then you'll see instructions there So with regards to the repopulation and I want to put this out there also because it's going It's really important on two on two levels one cal fires done a great job of of putting together a map an interactive map We used it when we evacuated people And so there's a website that you can go to on our facebook page We're going to put this website out there You can also find the website to this evacuation map and we're going to use it in the reverse for repopulation If you go to cal fires website and you find the incident fact sheet for this fire You'll find a link to this map and essentially what it looks like right now is red You the whole I mean the evacuated area looks red But you got to zoom in you zoom in to where your street is where your address is it'll go To that granular level on that map you go to you find your street You'll find a zone now that zone's important. It's important for a couple reasons one is that it's it's You know that those zones are how we evacuate people out of areas if there's fire That's that's what we did when we first started launching evacuations But that's how you would know whether or not and we're going to tell you So there's going to be a lot of information coming with regards to letting you know when you can go back home But to be specific you go to that website After this briefing you'll see the you you'll see the zone that the that ucsc is in if you zoomed in It's going to turn green and so that's the differentiation there red being red zones Meaning you can't get back to green meaning you can so pay attention to that map you can find it again at our website our Facebook page and you can also find it at calfire's website On the incident fact sheet And then lastly I just want to touch on I've heard the comment Well if things reopen is it going to be a foot race between me and someone potentially wanting to break into my house And the answer that's no we're not going anywhere So we're going to be here the sheriff's office is going to be here with our mutual aid partners Until this is over until we have Until we're able to get people home safely and they feel safe being at home This is going to be a process and it's not something we we're just as quick as it's repopulated. We're leaving You know, we're a part of this community and we're going to continue to be there as people resettle So just to clear up any anxiety there Thank you Speaking next on behalf of all the unified incident commanders is calfire incident management team three ic billy c Obviously today is a good day. We've increased our containment from 19 to 21 percent We've also increased the personnel numbers by almost 300 personnel We've added additional hand crews into the mix both today and for tomorrow's plan All those numbers are going to equate into additional percent containment Efforts and be able to create more areas that we can start to repopulate Today today we took our first steps Having a uc santa crews Turning green on the map and being able to repopulate that area So over the coming days as we continue to have success out on the line We're going to continue that effort to move people back in to develop some type of normalcy back with this population Thank you And our final speaker the cal fire san wato santa crews unit unit chief ian larkin Good evening. Um This is a good day. So we're our percentage containment is going up. We're getting more resources here So that's going to equate more work being done on the ground As we start to move forward to get this fire fully contained Team three is doing an outstanding job to get the resources in here And get them to the line as quickly as possible so that we can Mitigate this as quickly as possible A couple things I want to note. Um, obviously our damage inspection teams are out there working hard and getting into the areas That are safe for them to get into and evaluate Any of the structures that are damaged and get those details out to the public As uh chief deputy clark said, uh, there's a website you can go to to find that information It is linked on the cal fire information sheet And it'll help you determine You can type in your address and do a search of it And it will take you to that location and to help you determine whether your structure is Survived or if it has been destroyed I just want to point out again as I did this morning For those that have that have needs based on potential destroyed structures or damage structures There are a couple locations you go to to you can get resource or information related to resource Assistance to help you the first one is disaster assistance.gov. That's a disaster assistance.gov The second one is you can download the fema application Through the android or apple platforms And that's the fema app or if you don't have the ability to download the fema app You can call 1-800-621-FEMA That's 1-800-621-FEMA And those are some resources that will be able to assist you In the recovery process and if there's any small businesses out there that sustain damage or losses You can also contact the sba the small business administration for additional assistance Just to just to note This is still a dangerous situation This fire has been burning in some areas for 11 days The fuels out there may not have consumed fully as we said we have trees coming down still along the roadways Our utility partners are out there doing their best to get the infrastructure back into play so that we can try to repopulate areas That have been damaged and the other key point I need to make is if your structure has been destroyed There are some environmental issues that need to be addressed through the county Environmental health to make sure that the environment is safe for people to go back into those burned areas Where structures may have been lost. There are a lot of household Items that are used within our homes that are can that can be contaminating the area around so they may need to Isolate and clean up that site a little bit before it can actually be Repopulated so we're doing the best we can as quickly as we can with the resources we have available And just remind all those that are out there still in the evacuated areas You need to be cautious when you're out and about because the trees are coming down And causing you know issues with the roadways and potential safety hazards for you all As well as safety hazards for our crews that are out there working really hard to try to get this thing Contained so that we can get everybody back into their residence. So thank you With that we're happy to answer any questions. All right, everybody up here. Oh go ahead Yes, the question is related to a long-term strategy about suppression and you know chief larkin I have long conversations about what this looks like two months three months four months a year down the line from now And and I don't think we there's any doubt in our mind that we're going to be chasing smokes in there and putting out small Areas that may still be warm Going on smoke checks fairly frequently And maybe that's a good thing to kind of get out there is the expectation that You know an old growth stand of redwood trees or forests that haven't burned in a hundred years Unlike brush or grass that may be extinguished after 10 to 14 days This has the potential to be months of work ahead of us And that goes hand in hand with you know, normalcy back to the community normalcy back to the environment Yeah, the question was what's the percentage of damage inspection that's done? I believe the chief see you can answer that As of this evening, we've had 12 damage inspection teams in place working diligently each day The reports this evening. We've had 55 percent of the burned area canvas Information collected and validated Obviously, there's still 45 percent to go and a lot of that's going to be interior areas Where we still got to get the roadways open and make it safe to do so to get in there Any other questions? So you're referring to the evacuation order being lifted at UC Santa Cruz is that correct? Okay, uh, so question was have the orders been lifted and I can pass that over to chief deput clock to answer So the answer is yes So for UCSC the evacuation order has been lifted as I mentioned They're in talking to chief always over at UCSC if you live on campus pay attention to your email There's going to be specific instructions with regards to a phased approach at Repopulating the school Yeah, the question was where did the latest containment today come from and what portion of the fire and chief's front and vivid answer that Actually, uh with today's containment. We had a couple areas that we felt that met the containment criteria One of which is on the southern end. Uh, we were talking about UC Santa Cruz being repopulated and The any potential threat to the city of Santa Cruz? And so we felt that down in the where I've mentioned before that was a good spot to to put some containment Um, and I think you'll see that grow over the coming days. That's the area that we'll see containment We also had some more up on the coast. This map doesn't completely, uh, Indicate that but tomorrow's map will certainly show that blackened area on the map All right, everyone up here is available for questions after this press conference is over We will reconvene here tomorrow morning at 6 a.m. For another press conference. Thanks for joining us. This, uh, this concludes the conference


So as we age older we have problems with the knee joints. This is mainly due to obesity as well as aging factor. So what happens here is the fluid between the knee bones gets reduced and the rubbing of the bones results in osteoarthritis which is the main cause of knee pain or the symptoms of osteoarthritis. So one can reduce this knee pain by doing knee strengthening exercises. Even the grade one or two osteoarthritis people can practice the same exercises and have better results. The fruits which are rich in vitamin C like pineapple, orange, musambi, avocado, guava also helpful to reduce the inflammation in the body. Along with this you have to add plenty of fluids in your diet. Specially these joints see knee joints, ankle joints, hip joints, shoulder joints, even the wrist joints all these joints some movement is very very important. If your movement is less then the problem will start. That is what the loosening techniques or the Chalana Kriyas what we teach they will help us to relieve the pain. So in all joints even if you are sitting in the office keep doing some movements. So even sitting in the house watching TV giving movement to your body or your joints that will help to relieve the pain. Let us do some yogic technique for knee pain to strengthen our knee joints to relieve the pain from the knees. The very simple techniques first one bring your legs forward right leg forward right to stretch it forward your foot and back. If you can't stand alone you can take the ball support or any other support but try to stretch your foot forward and backward forward and backward forward backward you can do this for about five to ten counts then left right left right left right after that let us rotate one rotation two three four five six anticlockwise one three four five and six relax let us repeat for the left leg also so left leg forward stretch forward backward forward backward practice as much as you can then so compulsory you have to stretch maximum like just use some movement less more than sufficient now left right left right left right slowly you can do after this let us rotate one two while doing this you can feel the nerve system in the legs they are stretching maximum and give relief no anticlockwise come back slowly relax after this let's go to knees rotation bend your knees like this hold them by hands give slow moment rotation from right side do it very slowly if you are well knee bend advice then slowly anticlockwise rotation when you're doing this your mind on your knees slowly slow down the practice and relax keep your legs apart raise your hands up slowly bend your knees and as you're sitting in the chair come up repeat go down down take this for four to five times and relax any technique after each technique we must relax when we are doing practices for our knees let us relax our knees when we are doing it to back let us relax our back now let us practice Jhanu Shri Shasana sit with your back straight fold your right leg and place it at the joining of your thigh lift both the hands up straighten your back and bend forward bend as much as you can if possible hold your feet do not bend the knee keep your legs straight stay in it for two to three times come slowly relax your hand stretch your legs relax repeat this on the left side fold your left leg place it at the joining of your thigh stretch your hands up straighten your back bend forward bend as much as you can if possible try to hold your feet do not bend the knee keep your legs straight try to stay there for two to three times breathe normally relax and come up come slowly bring your hands down stretch your left leg relax to reduce the knees pain or pressure from the knees let down near the wall and rest your legs to wall both the legs one by one with the support of your food there is no weight on your legs especially on your knees remain this position for minimum five to six minutes maximum whatever you can slowly bring them back one by one and relax


here today we're gonna be working on my nieces suburban again it's 2003 Chevrolet suburban and this is an issue that she's having it'll start this up back up in park it doesn't want to go back in it's supposed to go back that way you got to push it so we're gonna check the cables and see what's going on I'll bring you down under there with me and I'll film what I can film for you as like I said see this is way down it should be about right there but it's actually neutral there when you put it there's reverse pretty sloppy but push it up and then back that's okay we know what it is she's picking up the part today okay guys if you see a cut here it's because I was not in frame 90% of the time so I thought I'd re-show you this okay what we're looking at here this is the linkage on the transmission neutral safety switch and reverse lights I see monkey feet over there hi monkey look for right here sometimes it'll come loose and it will cause issues this one feels tight out comes around clear over here back over here to this this is where you adjusted that right here and then of course it goes up inside the cabin there and this is how we're going to adjust this okay now I'm gonna try to set you up here on this stand so I can show you how to do that it's pretty simple okay and I'll tell you about what I'm doing as I go along so let me get you set up here and then we'll adjust it okay now what I've done I've got it I've got wheel chocks under the back wheel and I just put it neutral and let it rest up against some chalks it's not that's gonna roll over me but I don't want it if it does roll because we're on a slight incline if it does roll I don't want to hit in the Corvette so what I'm gonna do I want to try to do this without getting in your way so much this white clip here you have to pull it back out of the way now there's another white clip right right here and you got to pull this out and I brought a screwdriver in case I needed it and of course I forgot it but what that's going to do is that's going to pull won't have to go get a screwdriver because I got to get that lifted up out of there so let me grab a screwdriver alright guys I'm back like I said before this snow three be careful with these plastic parts you know they've been in the weather I've got some WD-40 here just some lubricant lubricant to help it maybe a little easier okay I got me a screwdriver so okay I gotta try to do this backwards so I can film for you now I'm gonna try to pop this clip up I may have to get your way for a minute hopefully you can see what I'm doing I'm just just left in this clip and it'll come a good ways up out of here I'll show you when I'm done with what it should look like a lot of times you can you might get lucky and just move these with your hands there okay just like that that sides up out and the sides up out just like that now what we're going to do is we're going to go up on top everyone pull it all the way down into low and back in the park again then we're going to come down here we got one more thing to do and well two more things but one more thing and I'll show you what that is but let's go up on top and we'll pull it down all the way into low and back up into part okay so let's pull it I'm gonna put all the way down into low this does not have an indicator up here usually an indicator right up in here somewhere okay now we're gonna put it all the way back up in part I want this to go up here doesn't still doesn't feel right but okay now let's go down under here to the transmission and we're gonna push this this lever all the way in the park towards the engine and it's already in park so we may have to do this again that's for some reason this does not feel right up in there so there maybe that did it okay make sure it's in part okay let's move it out of part let me get you sit down here again okay so what I did was I put it back up in park up here at the transmission I'll pull back down again that's all the way in the low now I'm gonna put this all the way up in the park let's make sure that's right there we go now it's all the way up in park on the transmission now I'm gonna push this clip we're gonna pull the right one back push this white one back down in that's what locks it in there back down in once it does that clip will go back in there now we're gonna go up on top and we're going to check and see if it goes into park right again okay so now back up in the cab we got the key on and that's a little bit of movement there but that's in this not the cable you're gonna put our foot on a break put down in reverse neutral second second on the river in these oh threes but there's nothing there and I don't see anything here I'm missing something anyway reverse neutral second okay now we know it's still start and any other get a cool so again there's neutral starts right up shouldn't start we saved her hundred bucks on a cable well there's actually two cables it's a two-piece cable they call it but that's how you do it so let's go back down here and I'll show you again okay shut this off and it figures I'll just show you again here it's on the driver's side right below you slide this back cab pulled all the way down into low back in the park make sure your shifter over there on the transmission come down make sure it pushes all the way into park and then and put your your white clip back down and then slide this one back over it like that and that should be all it is so alright guys that's how you adjust it everything seemed fine there so we're waiting on another part stay tuned for a video I'll show you how to put an evap solenoid on this thing so she bears I'm at the man legend I'm in the sun I'll see you soon bye-bye guys take care hey guys she bear one bear 1000 here


But Jinnah forced us without any ordnance with any Indian or Indians or Indian to be a part of India. He wants partition. We have to frame a constitution now and instead we are busy in thinking whether we should have a partition or not. Leaders of the Muslim League feel that due to their lower numbers they would not be given representation in any aspect of the council or country. They want a different nation. The marketed by geographical boundaries is a necessity pointing directly towards a separate religious country. We have a new and enormous India before to form a new constitution, to form a new constitution assembly and have great leaders to lead India. We should give them their share, their wants and have it in their lives.