Hello, good afternoon and welcome to CMC Markets on Friday the 6th of May and this non-farm payrolls webinar with me Michael Huston and my colleague Colin Zizinski will be covering not only the US jobs numbers but also the Canadian jobs numbers on behalf of our Canadian clients because they are just as important and actually could give a significant indication as to I think not only the direction of obviously the dollar CAD but also potentially could give close and I'm just saying this close as to the direction of crude oil prices which on some measure could well have topped out but at the moment we seem to be chopping about in a bit of a range but first and foremost before Colin and I get started we have to go through the obligatory housekeeping rules risk warnings what have you for the purposes of compliance so if you could be good enough to just absorb them bear with us while we go through them and then we can actually get started on the more important matters of the actual data itself. So non-farm payrolls one of the biggest data releases of the month not only for the US economy but for financial markets in general but certainly I think probably less important now than say for example the jobs report in a month's time which will be just before the next FOMC meeting which is on the 14th and 15th of June now we've had a number of Fed policy makers come out in recent days arguing the case or articulating the case that the potential for another two or three rate rises remains on the table notwithstanding my skepticism about that let's look at the numbers first and foremost let's look at the Bloomberg's work screen WIRP I find this is a very effective way of seeing how the market is positioned or what the current implied probabilities are that the market is assigning to a June rate rise and at the moment they're assigning a 10% probability that they will rate the Fed will raise rates in June they're actually only assigning a less than 50% chance they'll raise rates at all this year and yet we have Fed policy makers like John Williams of the San Francisco Federal Reserve as well as people like Dennis Lockhart articulating the possibility that we could get two to three rate rises this year well someone's got this very very wrong could be the markets or it could just be the Fed basically trying to muddy the waters with respect to their future intentions on a potential rise in interest rates ultimately I'm more inclined to believe the market and ultimately I'm more inclined or I'm less inclined to believe the Fed despite all of the common coming out of out of these Fed officials so yeah this has been interesting because they've you know a few of them have been suggesting that they think the the markets are are being a little too pessimistic on rate height I think they're probably talking more about the bond market when I look at when we look at the the dollar index and thank you for putting that up Michael I think this year what I've been running at is kind of that with a dollar index around a hundred was pricing in about four hikes 92 was price sorry 95 with pricing in about two hikes and 90 would be pricing in zero hikes and not that long ago we got down to 92 and we're kind of settling into this 92 to 94 area which is telling me that at least the currency if we've got the bond market saying none we've got the Fed saying two or three and the currency market is telling us one maybe two probably more like pricing and more like one so I think between all of them we're kind of we're still seeing this easing reducing of Fed expectations I think two to three is looking a little bit as far out there certainly three is getting is looking way out there at this point well I think if you if you're articulating three interest rate rises this year as Goldman was arguing this morning on Bloomberg then really you're going to have to see a rise in June a rise in September and a rise in December so whatever the for whatever the merits for raising rates in June and whatever the merits for raising rates in December in the year of a presidential election they're not going to raise rates in September because it's too close to the presidential election they are not going to want to be accused of being partisan by either the Democrats who perceive that a potential rate rise could be harmful to their reelection you know their reelection prospects or Donald Trump who's already articulated that he wants to replace Janet Yellen if he becomes president so so for me I think two is either even two rate rises is stretching it and there's another factor at play as well Colin and I think Mr Lockhart actually touched upon it he said that the Fed is looking at the UK referendum vote on 23rd of June as a possible decision or possessing a potential factor in the decision making process well they meet nine days before so if they are considering it are they going to start raising rates nine days before a potential Brexit if the polls remain close so that's another you know that's another thing to fact absolutely there's so many factors right now affecting that but that's a big one I mean do they really want to do that at that point in time given the which also of course with the close election in in the in sorry the close vote in the UK if you get a close one in the US well then then December becomes iffy as well if you start getting into legal challenges and things like that because you can be sure the Clintons and Trump are going to battle it right out to the end and probably pass the election date if it's anywhere near close so I mean my base case scenario is that if we don't go in June which is looking increasingly unlikely we probably won't go at all and if it is a close if it's not a close contest then we probably will go in December if the data supports it the Fed says data dependent you know we we talk about the payrolls numbers so so let's have a look at the payrolls numbers and let's have a look at the data this week because I think that's important but I think what's more important is what the price action is telling us on not only the dollar index but also cable and euro dollar and and it is suggesting to me and ladies and gentlemen and if you want to ask questions please do so using the chat facility I think there's a potential for a little bit of a dollar rebound now how that basically pans out it's not it's not going to be immediately apparent but certainly I think a disappointing jobs number will obviously put pressure on the dollar but will it be enough to push the dollar below the lows that we've seen this month I think that's unlikely given what we've seen here on the dollar index but more importantly what we're seeing here on the euro dollar so let's look at the euro dollar what we've got is a potential shooting star on the daily chart for euro dollar which is this candle here with a very long upper shadow we've also got the oscillator starting to turn over and we haven't as yet been able to get much above 114 50 on euro dollar on any subsequent rebound after breaking back below these series of highs through here now those of you who've who've listened to my webinars before will know that I'm very big on trading levels or you know basically looking at levels in particular and we can see that there was a significant amount of resistance through here we've finally broke above it we broke above it very strongly but we've exhausted that and come back very very quickly now that's not to say that we can't then go back higher again but certainly on the basis of this chart and on the basis of the dollar index and there's very strong correlation between euro dollar and the dollar index there does appear to be some evidence that potentially we could see a little bit of dollar strength a little bit of euro weakness over the course of the next few trading sessions it's a similar sort of story on cable as well probably more so if we look at the daily chart here again let's blow it out a little bit we have a very strong key reversal day earlier this week made a brand new high and a new low and we closed quite a bit lower thus far we've struggled to really break below 144 40 but we haven't really got much above 145 40 so at the moment we're getting pulled in a hundred point range the bias here again remains probably more to the downside than the upside but ultimately I think it does point to a little bit of what I would call dollar strength so let's talk Colin about what would cause potentially the dollar to gain today and I think really we've got to focus on this item here average earnings because I think a dollar you know a payroll's number between say for example 160 and 250 or 150 and 250 it's not going to move it it's not really going to move it it may move it you know marginally but in terms of the overall direction of travel with respect to a stronger dollar it's probably not going to move it that much a weak number could see the dollar weaken and we could go to the top of the range around 145 and a half 146 but ultimately I don't think it's going to send it back to the highs that we saw at the beginning of May in cable or the highs that we saw in euro dollar it might it might weaken the dollar initially but I don't think it'll it'll it'll weaken it any more than it's already been weakened in terms of the lows of the dollar index so what so essentially what are we looking at here we're looking for a dollar positive number average earnings 0.3 the annualized number is 2.4 becoming at 2.5 or we come in slightly stronger if the participation rate goes up and maybe the unemployment rate goes down that could actually be mildly dollar positive okay yeah and in general going forward earnings is also important because we look at inflation because the headline inflation numbers have been have still been relatively weak but core inflation numbers have kind of been creeping a little bit higher over the last few months so people will look for this to inflation numbers and as we move through the month once we get past the payrolls number the ones we really wanted to keeping an eye on for for dollar action would be the inflation number so just to think about that as we as we move through this this report and beyond perhaps just five minutes to go Michael we'd like to just have a quick chat on our forecast this is a a rare month that has Michael actually more looking for a higher payroll figure than I am so maybe you'd like to start or okay I'll go I'm at 175 I saw the ADP numbers came in a bit soft some of the other numbers have come in a little bit soft over the last month or so so it seemed to me as though heading into the spring things have still been a little bit sluggish here so I'm not looking for as big a miss as ADP was about half that kind of a miss the streets at about 200 so go ahead Michael yeah I'm looking for slightly more than that two two two hundred and twenty thousand jobs which is a mildly dollar positive number so anything above two ten to twenty I think we'll push the dollar higher simply because that's the way the market's positioned I think the market is slightly positioned short with dollars and I think a slightly positive number should actually push the dollar higher push cable lower push dolly and higher push euro dollar lower and the reason I've gone slightly high on non-farm payrolls is I've looked back over the course of the last few years and whenever ADP's come in on the low side of expectations non-farm payrolls has generally beaten it by about 40 or 50 000 to the upside so I can display that on this graph here so if we say for example look back at April last year ADP came in at 191 non-farms came in at 251 if we go back to 2013 or 2014 rather ADP came in at 241 non-farm payrolls came in at 330 so that sort gives you an indication and in 2011 it was it was it was a it was it was it was a similar sort of story so based on those probabilities I think the likelihood is that given the seasonality and given the fact that there was there's been five weeks of data jobs data since the last payrolls report that actually non-farms could actually come in slightly higher than expected now that's not to say that I'm going to be right but if they do come in lower then that's actually doubly disappointing simply because you've got more weeks to add more jobs and if they come in low then actually the US economy is probably adding less jobs on a weekly basis than they have been in the past the average over the course of the last six months is around 245 250 I just want to mention also on top of the five weeks Easter came early this year Easter was in March so April should have been a clear month for for job creation with a couple minutes left I just wanted to highlight Canada employment as well last month was pretty good with 40 000 and and the full-time number was particularly strong this month I think well usually when we get those kind of spikes in candid jobs we usually get a bit of a retrenchment the following month so I think that the job creation will come back off a little bit I think the streets being a little bit pessimistic at zero I've been I've called for for 10k on the on the Canada jobs which is kind of an average average month what we want to see in dollar CAD is a very strong reversal on the dailies and potentially we could be seeing a bullish engulfing week on the weekly so that suggests to me dollar CAD has bottomed which means that we could see the dollar rise against the Canadian dollar which then potentially due to the strong correlation between that and crude oil could actually see crude crude oil prices come lower so I think that's an important that's an important correlation to make because I certainly think in terms of Brent prices and let's have a quick look at that we've got 58 seconds quickly look at that look at the weekly chart on Brent we are currently negative bearish engulfing we haven't closed the week here yet but certainly there's potential that we've seen the top on Brent and we could be about to roll over and that could be as a result of a strengthening dollar so again that reinforces my narrative of a slightly stronger dollar so if you're going to play these numbers then really I think it's a case of buying dollar dips as opposed to looking to sell the rallies I think we could see a little bit of short-term dollar strength in the short to medium term so unless you've got anything else to add Colin let's get ready to I think we're ready I think we're ready okay good so we're looking for 202 about 200,000 on non farms Canada jobs who's right there average earnings 0.3 and unemployment rate five percent so here we go numbers are due five percent unchanged 160 non farms that's a very weak number so that's very equal that's very weak 0.3 so that's but that is very very negative so let's bring up dolly let's bring up dolly yen and let's see whether or not we're going to get a dollar sell-off on the back of that there's no doubt about it the big question is will we see a sustained move below the previous lows and I'm doubtful that we will so let's quickly I'm just waiting for the chart so Canada plan was negative 2,000 by the way Canada is doing what? negative two negative two yep so that's slightly below 7.1 yeah 7.1 and full-time it was all full-time drop of 2,000 in full-time jobs and per time was flat for Canada okay and let's look at let's look at the revision for March for non farms and March was revised slightly lower from 2008 so these these these aren't good jobs numbers but I certainly think they do take I don't think they've got to take June off the table unless we get a really really strong number next month I mean what's your consensus on that I think we pretty much I think we can pretty much conclude that they're not going to raise in June unless we get I would suggest a 280 or a 290 in May yeah I think that's fairly reasonable and the only other way they would do it in June is if they just get to the point where they say well we have to do it in the heck with the data which it's kind of what happened back in December but we'll see on on that one that was a little bit more going out on a limb but at this point the data certainly does not justify it when you're because one of the two things that had been had been pushing towards a June hike had been that the employment's been running strong and it's not anymore and an inflection was picking up which so this actually does present the Fed with a problem because we have seen evidence of rising prices we've seen the evidence of rising prices in the quarterly wage costs for Q1 they rose 4.1 percent we saw prices paid in ISM manufacturing jump to 59 highest level since September 2014 and we saw a very strong prices pay component in the non-manufacturing numbers as well so you know I made this point earlier this week in my in my daily update if prices start to rise at a time when jobs growth is starting to slow what are the Fed going to do are they going to look through the slowdown in the jobs data and raise rates into the into the teeth of a slowing economy I don't think so the last time we had this happen and people were asking me about in interviews this week we were back in the 70s when we had stagflation and that was exactly what it was was you had the weak economy high inflation and and from what I recall from the work I've done the Fed kind of was very choppy they would raise rates for a couple of times and then they cut them and then they break them and then they cut they didn't go on these long campaigns that we've seen in the last 30 years it was a very very choppy Fed at the time now obviously things have changed and the Fed the Fed has changed how it's operated under the last few chairs so it but it would be really I think you'd see more uncertainty over what the Fed may end up doing and then and certainly putting it out in the air and actually that's one of the things I've been thinking also of late is that I don't think the Fed is actually doing the economy any favors with all of their their contradictory statements and arguing because then you don't really get a sense of what direction they actually want to go in and even if they even know and I think that's another thing is does the Fed even know what they want to do I don't think the Fed do know what they want to do I think the Fed is split and these numbers aren't going to make that job any easier let's look at the S&P 500 because at the end of April people were talking about a golden cross on the S&P 500 and I must admit I did pour an awful lot of cold water on that because ultimately a golden cross only works as a supplementary indicator in the course of what's happened with respect to the previous price action getting a bit of feedback on your line Colin and we did get a golden cross in December and that failed and again here we are now approaching a very very key support level on the S&P 500 it's around about 2035 2032 we can draw it through these this series of loads through here what we're seeing essentially is I think equity markets in general starting to run out of an awful lot of steam and this is despite the fact that we've got the ECB saying that they're going to remain accommodative we've got the Bank of Japan saying that they're going to remain accommodative and could potentially ease more we've had the People's Bank of China in the last half hour saying that they're prepared to do more on the back of a weakening Chinese economy but these statements and these actions are no longer having the effect that they were having two or three years ago ultimately we're pushing against the limits of monetary policy now does that mean I think that equity markers are going to roll over and fall quite sharply at the moment while we're above this key support on the S&P 500 I don't think so but certainly I think if we break below this series of loads through here and this 50 day moving average starts to roll over back towards the 200 day moving average then I think it's quite likely that we're going to continue to trade in the ranges that we've been in for the past 12 months and that's essentially the bottom of the range is around about 1800 the top of the range is around 2100 and I don't think we're going to go anywhere more importantly I think we've seen a little bit of a weakness not only in the S&P even though it has managed to get back most of the losses that we saw earlier this year that hasn't been the case for the FTSE 100 or the DAX oh can I just mention one thing before we move on to those yeah also don't forget we're moving into May and June which is the other seasonally week time of the year for stocks often we do get a retrenchment and then kind of a bounce in July and then the and then the big high volatile risky period for markets is in mid-august to mid-october but this is the other one that kind of the minor seasonal week period for for stocks is kind of now through the end of June so we are seeing a seasonal one looks like a seasonal rollover and underway as well and that's spawned out by this chart here now early in the middle of April we saw not only the German DAX break above the 200 day moving average but we also saw the FTSE 100 we saw a number of bullish signals on a whole host of the daily charts the fact they've not been able to sustain those breakouts is a worry for me and the fact that now we're back below the 200 day moving average on the DAX and now we've broken below the 50 day moving average and broken below the trend line from the February lows does suggest that that weakness that we're seeing in equity markets is pretty much across the board certainly we're seeing it with the DAX here what won't help the DAX is a stronger euro so anytime the euro goes back towards 115, 116 or 117 the likelihood is we're probably going to see the DAX come under further pressure but also to confirm that if we look at the euro stocks 50 we get a similar sort of story again we've broken below the trend line support from the lows in February and what was more interesting actually with the euro stock 50 is even though the DAX broke its 200 day moving average the euro stocks 50 didn't and this is something that i've looked at in the past in terms of correlation i correlate these two indices because i tend to find that if they move together and the indices or the indexes confirm the breakouts the breakouts tend to be more powerful in this case the euro stocks 50 didn't confirm the DAX breakout which made me a little bit suspicious of it so moving on to the uk 100 similar sort of story here but we are pushing against support in the similar way we're pushing against support on the s and p 500 this 60 55 60 60 level on the footsie 100 is a very key support area has supported it throughout pretty much all of march and april so again at a very very decent support level on the footsie 100 as well let's have a quick look at gold because i think those numbers will definitely help gold we're back pushing against that 1300 an ounce level will that be enough to push them through it push push gold through that level i'm not convinced in the term i certainly think in the longer term there's potential for gold to go higher we can see where the big big support on gold prices is it's around about 12 12 0 5 but i think also if you look at previous support and resistance levels you can also see through here there's a decent area of support as well and certainly i think if you look at it on the basis of this this chart here sorry about i just misdrew that line if we look at it on the basis of this nice little triangle breakout on gold then potentially we have got room to go a little bit higher over the course of the next couple of weeks certainly on the basis of that triangle breakout that we've got there we take that move there the distance between these two points and project it upwards so that probably takes us to round about 13 20 or 13 30 maybe not today but certainly over the course of the next two weeks um let's yeah gold is definitely looking like it can move up particularly as the as the US dollar starts to weaken we do so much of the gold move this year has been driven by the by the weakening US dollar one other thing i've been mentioning on gold to keep an eye out as the year progresses is that the gold often acts as an inflation head as well so if we if we do see inflation start pressures to build again that also can can help to support a rebound in gold just as the dictionary pressures in 2015 drove gold down so it'll be very interesting if when we get some new sort of spending data out or we get new inflation data out we look at prices paid data see whether or not the inflation pressures that we're seeing building up there start to spill out into the wider economy certainly if you look at the UK economy inflation was minus 0.1 in November in March it was plus 0.5 so we have seen a pickup in inflationary pressures in the UK economy we're starting to see it in the US economy is that a result of a weaker currency or is it is a result of rising input costs it could be one and the same it's very difficult to draw a correlation between the two but ultimately what we're seeing here now is the dollar has come a long way but we are now approaching a very very key level on the US dollar for the next move higher or lower and certainly with respect to Brent crude prices this weak report actually hasn't done anything to weaken the dollar sorry to basically change the direction of travel with respect to oil prices should we have a quick look at Canada Colin after that report please okay let me see if I can find it there it is so despite the fact that we've it's been a horrible US report the CAD has broken the dollar has broken higher against the Canadian dollar so yeah which is showing the Canadian because the Canadian report was soft as well so we're I think we're seeing that that play of oil coming off and one of one yeah one of sets the other yeah and that's done that's a great thing about foreign exchange isn't it you get too lousy reports but which one's the lousy exactly but it's interesting the one that really intrigued me this week was the trade reports where you had the US a lot better Canada a lot worse and that was what triggered that huge bullish engulfing day and it's interesting because usually it's usually employment that has those kind of swings rather than trade but that's where it was that big day was it was a divergence in trade so and now we're seeing follow-through on the on the job numbers and this is why it's so important that when you look at the data you look at the price action first because the price action is probably more important than the data you've got a very soft US jobs report but the dollar hasn't really sunk significantly yeah we had an initial knee jerk sell-off but it's starting to come back you know and I think I think that is that that is so important in terms of the overall dynamics when you're when you're trying to trade a market how often have we said that it's a lousy number the dollar's gone up or that's a really good number and the dollar's gone down it makes no intrinsic sense in terms of how you perceive the data but it's not whether or not the data is bad or whether or not the data is good it's about what's already priced in and maybe expectations were fairly low that this would probably be a poor report and I think to a certain extent I think people were expecting a slightly disappointing report this was slightly more disappointing than I think people had expected it to be but nonetheless I think if we look at currency positioning and I think that's important as well if we look at the client sentiment on say for example dolly yen um positioning wise the market's predominantly long which is probably why we saw the the the sell-off that we saw initially but the big question is can this sell-off be sustained in the face of the fact that we are probably at the lows of the week are you going to want to go home short dolly yen at a time when the Bank of Japan is talking about potential intervention that's something else that you've got a price in to your overall equation when you're looking at dolly yen bearing in mind that Japan has been off for an awful lot of this week in golden week and therefore the Bank of Japan might want to lay down a marker when it returns next week so you know we're seeing dolly yen under pressure at the moment the big question is how many people in the market are going to want to go home short and ultimately if it was me I'd want to square up into the weekend so let's go back and look at euro dollar and see how that's getting on and what happened here to have a quick look at the one hour chart so there we have it sharp move higher to 140 and 75, 140 and 80 lousy jobs report has come all the way back completely counterintuitive so the dollar's weakened and it's come straight back which suggests to me that ultimately despite the fact this allows you to report the line the line of least resistance of the moment for euro dollar is probably for a test of the downside yeah this is also telling us that we're definitely into a trading correction for the for the the currencies with the U.S. dollar bouncing back up after a big sell-off these things coming back off after a big rally and you and I did mention just before the numbers came out that a 150 to 250 report would would probably not have a massive impact on the Fed speculation that we'd probably go back to more of the the technical trading which is what we've seen so so far and that's exactly right and you can see a lot of the market is short euro dollar so we got we got a nice little squeeze of those shorts but now we're coming back and ultimately it's probably going to be the same thing going forward so this is why technical analysis and charts is so important in terms of where the support and resistance levels are there's also the fact with respect to euro sterling that can actually give you some clues as to what the the currencies may do because let's look at this euro sterling chart does this look like a potential head and shoulders reversal at the moment really I agree we've got a decent area of resistance between 79 30 and 79 40 why is that level important well tell me why that level is important let's look at the 200 week moving average we traded above it we traded through it we haven't been able to hold above it but look what we've got here we've had a bearish engulfing week in mid april we've traded lower we've come all the way back down we're now pushing back against the 200 week moving average which would appear to suggest there's a significant pressure there if we now take that down into the daily charts we can see where the resistance level is we can see where it was resistance there it was resistance there it would then actually just support on these four days here and we it is now acting as resistance so this is where resistance and support reverse their roles quite nicely and enable you as the trader to set your stop loss levels accordingly so euro sterling suggests to me that there's further downside while we stay below 79 50 and if we do break below this level here then we're looking at further losses which suggests to me that we are going to be vulnerable to euro weakness and sterling strength the biggest problem we've got is how does that play out in euro dollar and sterling dollar and this is where technical analysis again comes in you've got a bearish engulfing pattern on cable here which suggests that cable is probably vulnerable to a downside correction but probably less so than euro dollar euro dollars got to go down faster than sterling dollar for euro sterling to go down if that makes sense if it doesn't drop me a drop me a line on twitter mcmc and i'll try to answer it in a slightly more um in a simplistic way but in essence all of these charts are pointing to a little bit of sterling weakness against the dollar but if euro weakness against sterling which in that case wouldn't equate to substantially a little bit of euro weakness against the dollar as well there was something else that i meant to mention and and and it's a skate to me but i certainly don't think we're going to see significant currency moves today um as we head into the weekend but ultimately i think going back to the dollars the dollar the dollar story i don't think we're going to see um new lows in the dollar today does anyone have any questions on anything that we haven't covered quite yet or haven't covered Aussie dollar actually that's probably worth looking at that's probably the other one you were thinking of that was the other one i was thinking of because let's look at this break this look at this breakout on Aussie dollar that is rolling as you say and i think we're going to come back and test this 200 day moving average which is around about 72 and a half so it's about 100 points lower than where we are already um significant breakout topped out let's look at the weekly chart again that's pretty that's a pretty powerful indicator the oscillator starting to turn over downward momentum is probably starting to build up there and again what we've got here is a little bit of divergence on monetary policy more convergence i should say because the Australian Australian rates has just been cut by 25 basis points people are speculating that the rba could cut again in june if that is the case the interest rate differentials between the rba and the fed will continue to narrow and that will favor the us dollar over the Aussie dollar okay it's tend to um does anyone have any questions that they would like to direct towards Colin or myself if not i think we'd both like to thank you all for joining us today we'll pop this up on youtube later if you any of you want to go back and revisit any of the points that Colin and i have discussed otherwise we'd like to thank you all for um your attendance today and hopefully hopefully you've got everything that you wanted from today's webinar thanks for that i thank you all for joining us today and um have a great day trading cheers Colin cheers Michael


All right, let's do it. I think we're supposed to kind of walk out at roughly the same time. Oh, we're gonna walk out at the same time? Yeah, if you can. Yeah, you guys, there's visuals. I'm gonna start by showing you a video. It is? No, it's good. I'm gonna show you a video, one video. It's all very dramatic, isn't it? It is. All right, when you're ready. Okay. So what do we press to make it go? Uh, space bar should do it. Since approximately June of 2017, I along with two other concerned academics, Peter Grigosian and Helen Clarke-Rose, have been writing intentionally broken academic papers and submitting them to highly respected journals. Some fields that study gender, race, sexuality, and similar topics. We did this to expose a political corruption that's taken hold of the university. By this point, several of these papers have been accepted in highly respected journals, and one that claims that dog-humping incidents can be taken as evidence of rape culture has been officially honored as excellent scholarship.  The reviewers are worried that we didn't respect the dog's privacy. That's the concern. We didn't respect the child's privacy. But don't let that lead you to believe that we're not addressing a serious problem. If you have a few minutes, I'll try to explain. To be clear up front, we think studying topics like gender, race, and sexuality is worthwhile, and getting it right is extremely important. The problem is how these topics are being studied right now. A culture has developed in which only certain conclusions are allowed, like those that make whiteness and masculinity problematic. The fields we're concerned about put social grievances ahead of objective truth. So as a simple summary, we call the problem grievance studies. To test the depth of this problem, my collaborators and I dedicated ourselves to a one-to-two-year secret project targeting top grievance studies journals with an agreement to publicly release our findings, no matter what the outcome. We started officially on August 16th, 2017, and by Thanksgiving we were in trouble. We had begun ambitiously and mostly stupidly. Our first papers were really only suited to test the hypothesis that we could penetrate their leading journals with poorly researched hoax papers. That wasn't the case, and we were wrong for thinking we might be able to. So by late November, it looked like all we'd accomplish is ruining our reputations. If this doesn't achieve anything, it would actually frighten me. We needed to change our approach, so we walked back from the hoaxing and began to engage with the existing scholarship in these fields more deeply. This led us to learn a lot more about the inner workings of grievance studies. The best I can tap into is that there's this kind of like religious architecture in their mind where privilege is sin, privilege is evil, and then they've identified education as the place where it has to be fixed. So you can come up with these really nasty arguments like let's put white kids in chains in the floor at school as an educational opportunity, and if you frame it in terms of overcoming privilege, and then you frame their resistance that they won't want this to happen to them, but they would complain about this. If you frame that in terms of, oh, they only complain about that because they're privileged and they can't handle it because their privilege made them weak, then it's right in. Papers started getting in.  By March, with two papers accepted and one published, it would be fair to say that we had become accepted grievance scholars. By June, it was three, with one having been officially honored by the journal as excellent scholarship. By July, it was five. By August, seven. This shouldn't have been possible. So far, what we're learning is rather astonishing, but the data we've gathered require more analysis to fully comprehend. What appears beyond dispute is that making absurd and horrible ideas sufficiently politically fashionable can get them validated at the highest levels of academic grievance studies. We rewrote a section of Mind Conf as intersectional feminism and this journal has accepted it. Social work. This is deeply concerning because the work of grievance scholars goes on to be taught in classes to design educational curricula, to be taken up by activists, to influence how media is produced and to misinform journalists and politicians about the true nature of our cultural realities. No one tolerates this sort of corruption when they find out an industry is funding biased research to make itself look a certain way.  You may be thinking that the work done in these fields must be good because it seems to continue the noble work of the civil rights movement. While after having spent a year immersed in it and becoming recognized as experts in it, we have to disagree. Grievance studies does not continue the work of the civil rights movements. It corrupts it and it trades upon their good names to keep pushing a kind of social snake oil onto a public that keeps getting sicker. Progress is easier without grievance studies. My collaborators and I are left-wing academics who can now say with confidence these people don't speak for us. This is now a plea to all the progressives in minority groups these people claim to speak for. I suggest you spend some time critically engaging with the ideas coming out of these fields and decide for yourself whether they speak for you. Wow. Seven. You got seven. Currently. So far, there might be a couple more, yeah? What is your first impression of that, though? What do you think? Oh, I mean, this is the right way, I think, to go about exposing what this is, because those of us who have encountered it, you know, casually in the course of trying to live our academic lives come to understand that there's something really wrong there, but it's far too easy to just caricature that broken scholarship as if it were random. And it isn't random. It actually does abide by a certain kind of internally consistent logic. And in some sense, the only way to really reveal how broken that logic is is to figure out what the rules are. And so I'm very impressed that at the point that simple hoax papers didn't fly, you went forward and attempted to figure out what these disciplines actually were saying. And the truth is, what they're saying is crazy, but it is not totally arbitrary. It's dismissive to imagine that they're not making any sense at all, that they're not playing by any rules, and we imagine that at our peril. All right, so you guys are discovering the rules and then presumably revealing the rules at some level. I thought I knew the rules, but there were more layers and layers of rules than I thought. And I've actually been studying it for seven years. Do you think that there's a kernel inside all of this that has some integrity?  The base is post-modernism, which has then had the layers of critical theory and then joined on the end of the civil rights movements and appropriated it. So right at the base there is the whole there is no objective knowledge, everything is systems of power. So it didn't have a chance from the start. The foundation is rotten. I think this is a mistake that people like us make when we see post-modernism in this mix, that we imagine that all of the people who are deploying these arguments that we know have some basis in post-modernism are post-moderns. Most of the people deploying these arguments have never read any post-modernism. They don't understand why that term is coming up. They are basically foot soldiers in a battle that started somewhere else. They don't know the generals and in fact they're dealing with a generation down the road from where this all began. And so they... The woke army. The woke army doesn't really resonate with the challenge that they are behaving in a post-modern way that what they are saying is post-modern. Therefore analytically bankrupt because it does deny a sort of reality that can be studied, that skepticism works to unearth. So that challenge to them falls flat because I think most of them don't know what we're talking about. No, you have to actually go for the ideas. To be fair it is the same with everybody. I could ask practically anyone on the street a certain number of questions and so many of the answers would go back to Augustine. And people wouldn't have perhaps ever have heard of Augustine because these things are in the air. They are the water that we're swimming in. These documents you guys are looking at we call that the fact sheet. It summarizes everything. And it's kind of the kid pointing at the emperor saying he's got no clothes. This is going public soon and we need help making sure that kind of like the two audiences understand it. There's the public audience and they've got the video you just saw.  So in my academics you mean all academics? I mean like I'll just go full on. Oh they're really going to hate it no matter what. They're going to hate everything. But we're talking you know like the well I am very interested in what you've done and I would really agree however I will have to look at all the details and great length for three to seven years before I say a word about this. I am after all a scholar. And what if they fire me and put a Title IX investigation on me because I secretly know that's going to happen. First of all the fact of you having begun this as a matter of simple hoaxing and then discovered what you did is really you're in because you did discover that there was substance there. It's an internally consistent system. It's an internally consistent system is what we did. So here's the thing you are actually in a position to speak to what is the middle ground here. The middle ground is this is not random. This is about something and it is internally consistent. It actually touches reality way more than anybody assumes to. Right. I think it touches way more reality. I've been saying stuff like this since the evergreen thing happened. You know the fact is we're not going to get very far if we don't have a legitimate concept of racism that we can invoke where it is necessary. And the point is as long as it's being used for this other purpose we're now stuck. Likewise white supremacy. We're stuck. Transphobia. Stuck. Islamophobia. Stuck. We don't have the substitute terminology to use and so the point is they've actually successfully hobbled addressing real problems that exist in the world by taking all of these terms and weaponizing them for their own purposes. Exactly how I see it. If you stood up for hey we're taking those terms back and they are going to take on the appropriate meaning for us to utilize them against the real problems. Why? Because actually we are interested in social justice not the brand but the meaning of those terms if you put them together in common parlance. This is going to be a far easier sell to people. To the people for whom the video is aimed at than to academics. Faculty are the most entrenched. I mean most faculty they totally buy into this. They're just swimming the pond. It's all they see. It's just their worldview. Well but you're not going to get the scholars in these fields. Maybe you'll get somebody who has quietly woken up behind the scenes and is waiting for an hour to get those people first but what you can do is you can rob them of an audience by taking people who have been persuaded by the fact that maybe they've encountered transphobia and then they hear transphobia named and they think well I've seen it and here's what it means and then they go out there as a foot soldier. Maybe if you capture those people's attention then the point is well these fields will either shape up or dry up. Well maybe the intended audience both for the video at least for the video is yes the public but specifically students because students are reachable much more so than faculty. Students are flocking to these fields because it sounds like Brett has used this language a lot that they've wrapped up something that is quite ugly in a very pretty box and put a name on it that sounds beautiful and it's the wrong name and it's the wrong rapping it's ugly inside. But students go to it because they don't know. What you're going to get back is attacks of many different kinds and I will say there is one hallmark I'm hesitant to say it out loud because I don't want to destroy it but I think this is important enough that it might be worth having it which is you'll get back extremely forceful arguments in mutually contradictory directions. That's the sign that you're on the right track so personally I've gotten back what you've said is completely obvious and you're dead wrong right? Like you hear those two things and it's like aha I must be on to something right? So what you are going to get back is something like you have overstepped in some massive egregious fashion that is morally intolerable and you're going to get back the argument that there's nothing to be seen in what you've done, that it's empty and so those two things together are likely to be the hallmark of that's the flack when you're over the target. I am deep in the summaries of the papers that you guys have written I've arrived at masturbation of sexual violence with the title rubbing one out defining the sexual violence of objectification through non-consensual masturbation and then there's the mind comp chapter translation Well you did it a couple times, right? Well we did one that was an auto ethnography because the book is very auto ethnographical and we made that about white people and whiteness. We just swapped Jews for whites. Yeah and then so that's an auto ethnography and then we did one that was actually an argument that was based off the chapter of mind comp where Hitler argues why we need the Nazi party and what it should consist of. And that's been published. That one's been accepted and it might be published in my pocket in my phone right now. I don't know. I accepted the page proofs like three days ago. And we have three other ones that are literally on the cusp of getting it. So what happened was that real peer review tweeted it out and then the right-wing machine made fun of it and then one journalist ended up for one of these outlets got a hold of it and called the journal and started asking them a ton of questions like how do you know this author's real? No one's ever heard of the Portland Ungendering Research Initiative and so all of a sudden they asked us to prove our identity and then this started to snowball because we weren't going to. We're not going to forge documents. There's a point where the deception becomes outright lying and it doesn't feel right and that's not the point and we're not doing that.  I don't think that's an accident. You walk away willingly or not and you gain the ability to say whatever you want. Is PSU going to be okay with this? They will come for me. Yeah, I think they will and they'll weaponize Title IX, they'll weaponize something. Exactly. I wish there was something comforting I could say about the fact that you'll be alright in the end and I can't. The fact is I know from our situation that I thought we would be alright in the end and it turns out I think that we will be alright in the end but that that is not because of the fact that we thought we'd be alright within the framework of higher ed. Alright. And what made us exceeded in protecting us from a catastrophic fate was actually Joe Rogan, Dave Rubin, Eric Weinstein, Sam Harris and the fact that they spoke up quickly. If they hadn't I think my assumption at least that we were sufficiently well positioned, we were sufficiently popular with our students, had enough friends that we would have been able to survive it, that would have been wrong. We assumed that there was some safety in our position because we were wildly successful and popular professors teaching actual things to students who were being challenged and enjoying it. I'm under no such illusion. It was not sufficient. I know what they've already done to me and I know the charges of misconduct and I know how they think I mean I told you that I asked incredibly politely the officer of diversity and inclusion to meet with him to have a conversation about diversity and inclusion and he reported me for professional misconduct. For asking to speak with him? Yeah.  That's straight out of the playbook actually. That's his job. That's literally his job. If this does not cause something to come for you it's because you haven't succeeded in doing what you were attempting to do. So to succeed is to invite something dire coming back precisely because of the part that is about power. To the extent that you're saying something forceful and hard to dismiss and important that's going to rob people who don't deserve power within the academy from power that they have managed to capture there is an awful lot of pressure built up that is going to come back at you like a fire hose. So you can't fear the fact that it's going to come for you. What you can try to do is you can try to use that force as rocket fuel to the extent that you can take the force of the fire hose that's being pointed at you and you can use it to propel the conversation that needs to be had to a higher level into a different venue that's the way I think to succeed.


Coral reefs provide food and habitat for a wide range of organisms and ecological goods and services. Warmwater coral reefs occupy shallow sunlit waters to grow and calcify at high rates, while mesophotic coral reefs accumulate calcium carbonate at lower rates in deeper locations. Coldwater coral reefs are found in the dark depths. Coral reefs face significant challenges from human activities such as pollution, over-harvesting, physical destruction, and climate climate change. Climate change is likely to drive the elimination of most warmwater coral reefs by 2040 to 2050, while coldwater corals are threatened by warming temperatures and ocean acidification. Evidence that coral reefs can adapt at rates sufficient for them to keep up with rapid ocean warming and acidification is minimal. Coral reefs are likely to degrade rapidly over the next 20 years, presenting fundamental challenges for the 500 million people who derive food, income, coastal protection, and a range of other services from coral reefs. Unless rapid advances to the goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement occur over the next decade, hundreds of millions of people are likely to face increasing amounts of poverty and social disruption, and, in some cases, regional insecurity.


So in 2011, Stephen Colbert stunned America by starting his own super PAC. And he showed just how thin the line is between bribery and legal political contribution. Well, that's seven years later. And we want to check in on how all of that is going. So please welcome Colbert's personal lawyer for his super PAC, former Federal Election Commission chairman and current president of the Campaign Legal Center, Trevor Potter. Thank you. Thank you so much. Welcome, Trevor. I'm just going to jump right in. That's OK with you.  And I'm a Hollywood elite. So I'm a Hollywood elite. If I want all of the influence I can buy, but I'm sure that there are limits. So if I wanted to give as much money as I wanted, it would be like $1,000 would be the limit or something, right? Well, the legal limit today you can give directly to a candidate is $2,700. However, before you get nervous, if that's not enough, you can actually give as much as you want to help the candidate. You just give it to a super PAC, a single candidate super PAC that can then go and spend it on behalf of the candidate's election. The Supreme Court and the Citizens United case struck down existing limits and said that corporations, individuals could spend as much as they wanted to help candidates because that sort of independent spending could never be corrupted. But that money isn't going to a candidate, right? They don't have any say in how that money is being used, because that would be a slush fund. Money laundering, right? So Justice Kennedy and the Supreme Court majority assumed that this spending was going to be completely independent of candidates and parties, that these groups would operate as outsiders. But that's not how it has turned out. Candidates nowadays actually create their own independent super PACs before they become candidates. And then they raise money for these super PACs. And then once they become candidates, using your million dollars or whatever, they can go ahead and spend it to elect the candidate. Pretty clever. But once they become candidates, then they can't touch any of it. Well, the first thing to remember is it takes them a surprisingly long time to become candidates. You might recall Jeb Bush in 2016 who spent something like six or nine months going around the country, traveling at the expense of the super PAC, raising tens of millions of dollars, saying he was thinking of exploring the possibility of considering whether to become a candidate. So he did all that and then jumped into the race. Of course. But once they sign all the paperwork, then they have to stay away from super PACs, right? Wrong. OK. There are lots of ways that they can induce they in contact. For example, the Federal Election Commission has said it is all right for candidates to appear at super PAC fundraisers, either to raise small amounts or to be a featured or honored guest. Now, that may not sound like a lot of contact with you, but the FEC has said that you can have one of these honored guest fundraisers with as few as two guests. So it's kind of a private fundraiser. And the candidate can thank people for giving and ask them to help support the work of the PAC. In addition to that, the FEC has come up with what's called the two hats rule, which means you can be the principal fundraiser for a candidate and then also be the fundraiser for the super PAC. OK. So if there's a wall between candidates in super PACs that if I, as a political donor, throw big money at a super PAC, my personal politician does not get to decide how it's spent, right? Well, that is technically correct, except that the people who do decide how to spend it are usually in this scenario the former campaign manager of the candidate or close friends of the candidate and one of my favorite examples it was actually the parents of the candidate who are running the super PAC. So they also can share what are called common vendors so they can use the same consultants. So basically, I think it's useful to see it as the other pocket on the candidate's coat. OK, but if the candidate tells a super PAC exactly what to do with the money, that's illegal? That would be illegal. OK. However, first they have to get caught and then the FEC has to have a majority vote on whether to investigate it. And as you may have heard, the FEC has basically deadlocked on all of this in the last couple of years. So if candidates or PACs break the rules, what is the punishment, like a really big fine? Well, the FEC has never actually punished a candidate for coordinating with a super PAC. They've never actually seen an example of that. Well, they've never seen it. It must be blind blessed their hearts. OK, so let's say the worst thing happens. My candidate has really blown it. They weren't testing the waters. They got caught explicitly telling a super PAC what to do. And the FEC just stormed down on them with power and fury. What kind of fines are we talking about? Oh, in that scenario, the first thing to remember is the candidate is almost never fined. The candidate's committee or the super PAC or the treasurer might be, but not the candidate. Then if the FEC levies a fine, which, by the way, the candidate or the super PAC has to agree to pay voluntarily, and if they don't agree on that, then the FEC has to take them to court and get a court order, and that takes time. But if they do all of that, then the problem is, will the FEC actually collect it? And there are lots of fines out there that have been levied that the FEC never got around to collecting. Got it. So I can give as much as I want to a candidate's super PAC, and there are no repercussions for my candidate. But what about me? Am I listed as the main donor of this disgraced candidate? Well, if you didn't have a good lawyer and you gave directly, and you gave directly, then, yes, you would be listed as the donor to the super PAC. But if you have a good lawyer, they will say to you, well, you could give through an LLC. Maybe you already have a couple. If not, you could create one, and it can make the contribution and be listed as the donor. The LLC could be named anything you want. You could name it after your cat. Do you have a cat? God, no. But I have a dog. And her name is Pippi Lawrence Stocking. OK. So all the public will know is that an LLC named the Pippi Lawrence Stocking LLC gave a million dollars to this super PAC. Now, your lawyer will tell you to keep it going and have it do a few other things to make sure that's OK. But you could do that. Your other option would be to take your million dollars and give it to one of these tax exempt nonprofit groups, what we call a dark money group, C4 or C6. They don't disclose their donors. So you give them the money. You say you wanted to go to the super PAC. You're supporting this candidate. They can go right ahead and either spend it themselves or give it to the super PAC. And your name will ever be out there. The Supreme Court, again in Citizens United, said don't worry about all this new spending because it'll be fully disclosed. And everyone will know where the money is coming from. But that has not turned out to be the way they expected it to be. OK. So let's say we've weathered the storm. My candidate is elected, but I want to buy more politicians.   Well, depending on who the politician was, yes. Really thought we were going to get a note there. Former Governor of McDonald of Virginia just had his conviction for taking 11 different bribery charges overturned by the US Supreme Court. I'll bet that surprises you. I am very surprised. So I could just get you a Rolex, a vacation, just pay for your daughter's wedding? Literally all of those things were taken by Governor McDonald. A wealthy businessman gave him and his family more than $170,000 worth of gifts and loans and wedding parties. Governor McDonald's lawyers argued that that wasn't a bribe because what he did in return didn't count as a, quote, official act. He only introduced the businessman to state officials and asked them to meet with him and held events for the company in the governor's mansion. And the Supreme Court bought that argument. They said that was not a bribe, but constituent services. And since in another case, the Chief Justice referred to out-of-state contributors to candidates as constituents, I guess that means that every wealthy favor seeker in the country with a checkbook and a pocket full of Rolexes can go right ahead. OK, so this isn't really disturbing. Bribery is legal in America. Corruption is legal. So Trevor, are we at a tipping point? What is it going to take for us to get to a point where we were post-Watergate, where Congress felt obliged to take bold measures to un-rig our system? I think we are at a tipping point. The good news is it's not too late. If you look at polls out there, it's the right moment. If you look at polls out there, about half the people say we should completely get rid of the current campaign finance system and put in a new one. And about 40% more say we should just make major changes in the system. So everybody is on board with doing something. Congress could pass bills that are sitting there, like the Honest Ads Act that is trying to deal with secret foreign money elections, the Disclose Act to deal with all this dark money. There are states and cities around the country that are doing interesting things. Seattle has this new citizen voucher program, and other places could adopt that. The FEC could update its disclosure rules and enforce the existing laws and crack down on this non-coordination-coordination racket. Now that may not all happen today, but I think we have to work together to make it happen tomorrow. Thank you, Trevor. Thank you so much. Thank you, guys.


The purpose of this investigation is to examine how flattening the spea, cos, curve effects the slope of the mandibular incisors and the width of the mandibular arch. This article was authored by Pundies Nikolaus, Polychronopola Argy, Sifokakis Isif, and others.


So basically the business plan program fits very nicely into the educational programs of NPE and as you can see on our strategic objectives One of them and one of the main ones is to build capacity and capability among our members try to create stronger groups where they already exist in European countries and to help to create new groups where they at the moment don't exist and for that Obviously, you need a very clear objectives and you need to know how you're gonna get to those objectives and for that business plan is a must My name is Neda Hamozi and I work with public sector and charitable organizations and SMEs around business planning and how to make an effective Plan that they can deliver. So for me a business plan is a blueprint a little bit like the map That you take to build a construction site That helps you go from A to B But actually keeps you focused on the steps that need you need to deliver the final results So whatever goal you have set to achieve for yourself and we tend to in daily life We tend to get drawn into other activities What a business plan or good business plan does is it sets out the steps that helps you get to the ideas So the idea Was born last year in 2014 during the masterclass which was on capacity building where our members Attendants for workshops and one of them was on building how to develop a business plan and based on that We got very good feedback, but it was other they have the feeling that it was a very brief workshop and that they needed more Coaching more guidance on on really developing these business plans and making them achievable and realistic So it actually is a response from MPE to a need of of our members I'm Hans Schuurer from Hematon, Stichting Hematon from the Netherlands Well at first it's interesting for all our members because we We are all organizations and we can compare them And learn from each other for my own organization. It's interesting because we are Relatively newly started organization. So we we are busy with making a business plan Everyone who works in a patient association or in an NGO or charitable organization Has that burning desire has the passion to make a difference And that is key to being successful in anything What happens often is that daily life routines Even tools like technology that are really effective instead of becoming useful They take up all of our time. So we get distracted from delivering The task that we set ourselves to do So one of the things that came up yesterday and today is people saying Ah, this is really useful because we have so many objectives And I now know I need to narrow it down So my name is Kenneth Zemba. I came from Poland. I represent the foundation She's called Karita. Yeah, I think it's Definitely crucial for us to do the good business plan And before I can we discuss all together what we need to Send somebody to the workshop just to extend our reviews and to do something new And also to Vidate what we think now and we are in a good way and we know how to do it properly A business plan that becomes a document and a beautiful document that sits on a shelf is not important What is important in my view are the steps you take in creating that business plan because by working through the steps of the business plan You look at your strengths at your weaknesses You have an idea you have the idea of what you want to achieve at the end always in sight And you work through the various steps of operational activities resources funds Relationships time lines how when you can achieve something and you push out of the way Those activities that get in the way of delivering your plan So the most important part of a business plan is doing the work to finish it. It's a bit like preparing for a marathon It is the preparation that gets you to run a marathon not turning up Well, I take home all those papers and all those notes and next weekend I put it with our share of him at all What kind of plan we have for the next two years and then maybe also the next five years, but that's a little further on and In between we go Next month with the other participants of the workshop Working on our own business plan give comments to each other feedback and We keep on learning from each other We looked at the range of membership you have We looked at aspirations of MKE and also the aspirations of the members as they are now And we thought the best way to do this is not to run a program that people turn up to Are told how to write a business plan go away or fill a template and Walk away, but they thought it will help them over a period of time To actually develop a document that is going to work for them. So we spend two days Together looking at the various elements of a business plan Then we will spend the next 60 years 60 days not 60 years on webinars Where we will work on individual needs so people will bring different elements of their work And discuss issues get some peer support Then they go away And they spend the rest of the another six months working on delivering the business plan Then we'll get together virtually again And see what elements were maybe too aspirational what needs to be tweaked What needs to be improved so they can design a longer term plan from there So it's actually going to be a program that will last a period of nine months I think it's very important to challenge And I think in my organization we have to discuss a lot of things maybe more after this workshop I give you ideas what we should exactly discuss and in which point which point are challenging for us And on which point we should spend more time So I think it's positive for every kind of organization to be in a business plan Because if you have a business plan and you know where you go And you have some goals and you know how to reach these goals And I think every organization should have a business plan that will be there


Everybody forced here ripping 2023 Star Wars return of the Jedi chrome sapphire five box number nine We will random in just a second here, and I will get ripping I just wanted to show you which packs or which first so we'll go. This is one through Go left to right one through eight or here It's gonna go top is one eight on the bottom and then so on and so forth. So top bottom left right That's how we do it Good luck everybody names and then numbers one through forty and the random eyes Or randomized see who's got what and we'll get going We'll go seven times on this random start with our names One two three four five six and seven got John G down to John G and then seven times on the packs One two three four five six Seven one down to twelve not not not back to the top. Oh boy Okay, it's John G top down to John G at the bottom. Okay, we got it right. We got it right Not the Navy Want to just move that over John G one Jeremy M 17 Kirk L 36 Irene three Michael M 32 Chiakai 25 Jason are 19 Alexandros 29 Michael J 31 Irene 16 Alexandros 40 Jonathan L 22 Brian F 30 Richard B 6 David M 20 and 39 Felix to John G 33 Francis D 9 Jason are 18 Trevor and 13 Jason are 24 Francis D with 5 Brian T 4 Trevor and 8 Kirk L 10 Michael B 21 Gerrard T 15 Alexandros 28 Frank M 26 Joseph D 38 Alexandros 35 Irene 14 Jason are 11 Irene 37 René G with 7 Felix 34 Alexandros 27 23 John G 12. Let's get these posted Get you a Lincoln Shat and rip it So Larry Walker, okay, so that was an answer then dang I forgot who I put but I got that one wrong I was like, I'm gonna skip it. I'm going to the next the next categories I think I missed I think I got only six right this time again. So I can try day only six right I'm on a bad streak. So maybe when midnight turns over I can uh, I can get some redemption some Tuesday I'm at grid redemption. All right packs one through eight talked about it. Good luck everybody Trade Turner was the trade Turner win a gold glove. I Feel like because he played shortstop. That's a really tough position to win it at I feel like that's That's that's a tough one Zimmerman's the one I should remember though pack one Droopy McCool. What a way to start the turn of the Jedi there the 88 cards 22 stickers vanilla creature and Where's Princess Leia? Pack two. Oh, he did maybe that's who I guessed. I might be my guest rich. I don't know. This was like This was just before I I fell asleep last night. I need to stop doing it before I run before I come super tired the rancor pits deadly plunge Newfound friend and lead singer size noodles pack three Andre Dawson did as well. Okay, so a lot of those possible options were exposed. Maybe that's where I kind of got tripped up at fury of the Jedi the jaws of death Pack three with our first parallel And it is the heroic droids 53 of 75 on the aqua nice parallel and royal treatment on Number four now God blasting a speeder bike the deadly cannon Rethinking the plan and the forest creatures number five Stop sushi the deciders alert to danger Luke Skywalker Jedi warrior and quiet C3PO six mother Ewok and Childs Oh, there he is The netted droid C3PO looking like he got Thanos disintegrated right there Surrounded by Ewoks and ambushed by the Empire Number seven Oh, yeah, the blip I guess oh pack seven with the gold coming up with this at the front's headquarters frigate trapped by the Empire Friends of the Alliance and Gold checklist 15 to 15 one through 66 Solid stuff for you pack number seven and number eight 3PO and that was like Astros national there's a few that played like for the expos in the ashes, right? The baby Ewok you've got father versus son R2-D2 hit and checklist except they're 132 reason I was making a joke About a speed up don't know what do you mean? Well, I mean you can but it's gonna be piles That's not good. Can we go so fast? Guys just leave them like Shawn did Yeah, but I want to do it properly proper I have a proper gentleman. Yeah Not really, but Just kidding. I'm a scumbag JK Real low life Shopify Wait, I'm catch up and then I'll start going again Like Sam had like he needs me to wait guys We are at 24 to go though 24 give it up for day 24 or is your embarrassing me You've done that yourself like I feel like Obi-Wan now pretty much 24 to go we're gonna pull the Don Don Laceous be one of one.  I feel like Jabba the Hutt was the inspiration for that 90 show dinosaurs A rival of the emperor that's accurate Han Solo's trouble or in trouble Luke Skywalker arrives and I'd like bars defenders 11 11. Oh We got a purple. Oh Dungeons of Jabba the Hutt The triumphant trio Even though there's like six feet six characters in that photo Facing Jabba the Huts Purple. Oh boy. Oh boy. Oh boy. Oh boy. Whoa. Whoa make out card purple attend time out for love It's a family show. Yeah, this is a family show. All right, we got time result up. Oh Geez Donnie close your eyes Purple to ten time out for love. We are gonna mag that's kind of weird, but we're gonna mag it There you go, I was that again 11 Congrats pack 11 Too young for this horse 21 to go now People saw the make-out card and what Tom got gotta get in the break Pack 12 oh Mike whoa Mike said Lando caressians disguise Watched by Boba Fett's Jabba the Hutt. Oh Oh Sean does a pretty good job actually military leader Admiral Ackbar. That's why he is Jabba, right 13 You try be Akbar Back 13 oh Sam fortuna There he is That's how he looks at Sean when he says He says his sticks, that's how he looks at him Have you like fun good that like man, I just look at him like that. Oh Man now that got Donnie good right there because I looked off it was just big space You should see some of the other breaks that we've done Half the thumbnails are zoomed in big fortuna space. It's terrifying Chewbacca And master of terror actually some pretty nice base cards in that one even though no parallel That was 13 we're on 14 now 14 the confrontation Princess Leo, Organa captured by Ewoks and a monstrous fate 15 The salacious crumb of Jedi. Yes, he was he was Yoda's master Time out for love. Oh, we got a green coming up some of the front the captive princess. I'm up for love Beto and a Jawa and green R2-D2 hit 54 of 60 you go pack 15 Got our to back it up R2 put a verse Put a verse R2 Pack 16 is their heroic droids Portrait of wickets guards of the emperor and a collector of creatures or collection of creatures That's late in sports cards for you Collection of creatures. All right guys just about halfway full on Star Wars. Let's get a field All right, so we've got 17 through 24 here man This is always so so much fun to break awaiting his majesty run 17 by the way imperial scout peril Lando Calrissian and Facing the emperor This is 18 of my hands 18 All hail C3PO their secret revealed court and chaos Boba Fett attacks He's a pretty worthless bounty hunter in that movie Yeah 19 got his blaster shot off or cut off. Then he just got jet-packed Mission destroy the Death Star Droid in the Ewok the young Jedi Knights and a green is Snagged by the Ewoks 26 of 60 Go pack 19 20 prisoners Star lovers Village of the Ewoks and under attack 21 Rebel cruiser Chewbacca triumphant master of his court and Logray and cheap churpa 8 packs in a box 22 Checklist 133 to 220.  I think a tie interceptor of the emperor Walk in the plank And Aqua a new challenge 40 of 75 and 24 the Maury and guard I'd be down with that Blake Will Endor action over there and dude they should just take the eat they should copy the ETQ at Universal Studios Where you wait for the ride and just make make it like that. That'd be awesome levitated by Luke the raging battle and the dreaded Rancor What do you say he's like, I don't know what it's called. I'm like it's a Rancor Sam Says on the card. Oh, it was a different one Well guys 21 to go 21 to go 25 to 32 in this one Let's pull an auto Yeah, let's do that. Let's pull an auto. It sounds pretty cool. This is 25 got hulking Gamorian guard the forest fighters Serious situation and horrendous creature 26 portrait of Chewbacca C-3PO and R2-D2 the ultimate mission and a full-fledged Jedi 27 right yeah, yeah, the emperor's offer always be one behind Aqua Bido and a Java to have 75 I break for freedom and checklist 1 through 66 28 areas intergalactic gangster So Sean was falling so intergalactic gangster. It's over it within the Death Star pondering the raid and The sail barge in the desert skiff 29 In my hand Got decarbonized Luke Skywalker the Jedi soldiers of the Empire and The rescuer what's your character is Java? It's good question. I can see 30 He is the host of the boon to Eve after all The battle begins Luke Skywalker surrenders sail barge battle and sigh snoodles 31 with an orange coming up. There's a path to destiny You know to the Jedi master monstrous guest an orange Arrival of the Emperor 20 of 25 Yep is coming here And 32 Camorion guard emerges droids on the move Salacious crumb and victory celebration. Thank you. Jason are grabbed for again. Nice Right y'all. We're at 17. Well past halfway Well past halfway to go and breaks right after this Jonathan L. Grabbin to that brings us down to 15 Yep to 15 the last box of this one. We got 33 to 40 33 the Emperor's offer Intergalactic gangster Graduating wedge and sail barge battle 34 within the Death Star Decarbonized Sigh snoodles and path to destiny 35 Luke Skywalker the Jedi the battle begins There's an orange coming up. Oh, there's Salacious crumb again an orange reunion on Endor 11 of 25 You sure you were prepared for this Donnie? I said I wasn't Oh I'm gonna pause a second. I was like I did a poor job preparing today. There's there's some chaos over there right now It's not really chaos. I know what's going on Just because I'm unprepared doesn't mean I'm gonna organize 11 to go What's here is Boba? Definitely not asked here. He got wrecked too easily in the original trilogy Honestly B Yeah, that's right there Yeah, but you have to factor it all in Blake. It's a gotta be an average Can't just use Empire Strikes back Boba where you actually capture somebody Okay, maybe that average is a I don't know it's definitely not s it ain't s Yeah, once you got to actual like having the one-on-one fight somebody in combat it didn't go well Dude was in that so I like pit quick All right, we're down to 10 I believe all right. What pack are we on 26? 26 36 yeah, sorry. Sorry. Yeah, 36 26 is 10 packs ago Skywalker surrenders pondering the raid victory celebration Lando Calrissian 37 you own of the Jedi master Gamorian Guard emerges Facing the Emperor and the courageous or the courting chaos 38 God droids on the move monstrous guests Boba fat attacks and mission destroy the Death Star 39 Yeah, I'm awaiting his majesty I'll hail C3PO. There's a green behind that a village of the Ewoks. I'll hail C3PO green is Friends of the Alliance 37 of 60 who are your s to your characters Blake? Leia Anakin probably We talk an OG 40 Pack 40 the secret revealed destroyed in the Ewok under attack and Master of is court that will do it. Thanks again everybody moving on now to Number 10


I'm going to give you a very short and brief overview of the six projects and what you'll get is a sort of a one path to possible take back of web search, the way Firefox took back the web. This take back is a long, long work. It's a hard work, a bit difficult, but that's the path that I know and that's the path that I work with, with a bunch of people. So this is what I'm going to show you and maybe you'll be convinced that the first software community and us and hackers and developers, blah, blah, blah, we can do something about it. Oops. Okay. So as you know, we have something fantastic at our fingertips. We have the most connected human built network of recorded history. It's the internet. And on this network, we have basically a massive flow of data. And this data, we can categorize them in two categories. Human generated and human targeted data and machine to machine data. So in this context, what is search? Search is this basic operation for humans to look up some human targeted content throughout this massive amount of data. Search is this fascinating characteristic that we all depend on it. Most of the time, we look at, we ask something to Google or Bing or whatever, search engine before we even ask our friends. So we're really dependent on these engines. And also the level of the technicality that is required and the usage that is required by users to use this engine has low variance.  The power searcher may be a little bit better, but it's almost the same. So what happens is we are all dependent on search. And we all use it. And if you're lucky to not have understood or seen this before, as users, we're locked up. And we're locked up in several ways. First, because we're interacting with black boxes, proprietary black boxes, which means that basically you've all experienced this, typing in some keywords, getting some results back, and not satisfied with the results. You change the keyword, you get another query and so on and so on, and you iterate that until you get satisfied. Sometimes you just get garbage, right? And the machine will never tell you that you got garbage because the machine will never tell you that she doesn't know, that he doesn't know actually. So you can give feedback. That's the first lockup. The second lockup is very important to me is basically we're all doing the same queries over and over again in our own corner. We're isolated. If I look for something and I read the form and I find at the end of the form that the answer to my question is not there, the hundred or the thousand people behind me who are going to do the same query, well, they'll do the same thing, right? They'll go through the form and read it again. So we're isolated. The third lockup is that we're all experts in something, right? We look things on, we're typing queries to these search engines and we're all experts in something. But we distill our queries to these search engines and we keep nothing on our machines, right? So we don't build profiles of expertise that should be ours. So the point here is truly, web search is lagging behind. And there are reasons for this. I'll try to tell you what. But the way I can convince you that it's lagging behind is that we're millions, even billions of users, and every day there is an estimated one billion query being issued on the search engines. And of course these queries, they're rooted in reality, right? We're looking in the infosphere for things that are real, recipes, medicines, whatever, right? But we're looking for something real. And since we're looking for something real, with many of us, we're looking for similar things, right? But we cannot interact. There is no feedback. We cannot share our queries like we can share something else. So what is SIX? SIX is an open architecture and it's a free software application that tries to fill the gap in web search by making it collaborative, making it social. And the main idea is that as a social web search is inevitable. It will happen. Whether SIX succeeds or whether some other people come up with better ideas, it doesn't matter. In the end, we'll do search together, OK? The way we do some other things together. The idea behind SIX, the main idea is very, very simple. It's very natural too. It is to regroup users who perform similar or identical queries so they can share and collaborate on the results. That's all. The simple idea has many interesting consequences. So I'll try to describe SIX with just this slide very briefly. Basically what happens is SIX regroups people in real time in so-called search groups around similar queries, OK? So people who type similar queries, they get regrouped in search groups. These search groups, these people in these search groups, they can work together. So we give them collaborative filtering tools to work together. So these tools, they allow them to exchange results automatically or actively by clicking to recommend results, to toss results away, to do a lot of things. So basically, it gives the ability to these people to process data. And the third point is very important is we allow some users to push some more data to the search groups for them to process. So let me give you an example. If you have a blog and you write a new entry to your blog, what you're going to do is you're going to devise a few queries, or at least one query that describes your new entry of your blog. You're going to do that, type in that query into SIX. You're going to be regrouped with people who did similar queries. But instead of looking at the results that you get from the search engine, you'll push your content. You'll say, hey, this is a potential new result for you guys. If you've been lying, it means if your query is not in any equation with the content, you'll get tossed. People will say, OK, that's garbage. We don't want it. If you do this, the groups, the filtering, and the publication to the groups, you can build a real time collaborative and fair search engine, fair because anyone can push some data. OK, here is the important thing. Why do we need to do it? If social web search is a simple idea, why doesn't it exist? All these companies, they could do it. There's one reason. The business model of these companies, right? The existing engines, they feed on user personal data in exchange for the service that they give you. This data, they used to target advertising and generate revenues for these engines. So if you let users share their queries and be clustered into groups of people with similar interests, and if you let people push them some content, give them some more content and results, like advertisers, then these advertisers, they don't need to go through the existing paywalls, like AdWords or some others. They don't need to go to these centralized entities and pay the fee to be able to push their results. So basically what happens is that these existing search engines, because of the business models that they have, that work, but because of these business models, they will never do it. And the proof, the fact, is that today, with things that you may like, it doesn't matter, like Facebook and others, they're still lagging behind. They haven't done it. And the lockup is this. It's because they simply cannot do it. Six builds on a few principles. I will outline them very quickly. The first one is if you want to take back web search, you've got to give more control to users over the search algorithms. What Six does is that it regroups the people. So they're together. Once they're together, they can work together, and they have more control over their results and the algorithms. The second thing is transparency. Transparency means that you're able to modify the equations, the ranking, the way the ranking is done in the engine freely. You do not have to rely on proprietary code and equations and let your results being ranked by them. So the way Six does this is that it's a free software. It's one of the reasons why it's a free software. It's a free software, and so it lets you do change the code as you want, and this does not impact the other users. Also, the third principle is fairness and content deployment, by letting people push some results to the search groups, to people who search similar content as they do. This removes the crawlers, so we don't need to copy the web every five minutes, again and again. So it removes the crawlers. We're pushing more data to the groups. But also, it's more fair, because anyone can push some data. We're not dependent on the SEOs, or if you have more money than others, you can make your website better. So it's well recognized by the existing crawlers. Finally, one of the most important points is that Six takes the user privacy very seriously, and for this reason, it builds a decentralized architecture. Six relies on the peer-to-peer network. The way it works is that you install Six on your machine. You don't need like a, it can be a desktop, a laptop, it can be a Shiva plug. It works on all these devices. You install Six on your machine, and it will learn from your behavior, navigation, and also from your queries that you're typing in every day. And it will build a profile for you, a filter through which you look at the results from other search engines or whatever feeds you're using. These profiles over the peer-to-peer network take exchange fragments of information through the search groups to help each other improve your results and get some more, some recommendation and so on. That's the way it looks, sorry for the bad, okay, that's it, okay, actually. So it looks just like in other search engines, right? You can use it every day. You get no loss of results, like of quality of results. The users' existing engines to get results, you can use whatever other feeds you want, and see the little stars and the recommendation on the writes, they're like, they're information that is shared by the users. Okay, so here's the roadmap. The first step was to build the, what seems, in my knowledge, is the only free software meta-search engine, okay? And this is done. We can search for text, image, videos, tweets, there are some nice tools built in, and we're done with this. This is something you can install on your own laptop or on your desktop. The second step, which is coming up soon, is the rising of a peer-to-peer net that connects all these six nodes together, okay? So whatever you're doing on your machine, if you let it do so, it will have an impact to other people searching similar things as yours. And this impact will be proportional to the similarity of your profile to some other user's profile, okay? The third step is that you let, on this network, people push some more content to the search groups, freeing ourselves from the existing engines, and becoming more real-time. The fourth step is like the step for the end of time, that we will probably never see, okay? But it's interesting, though, to have it in mind. So when you wake up in the morning, you know where you're going. If you let the web servers index their own content and build queries that describe their content and hook them up on the search groups and push this information to the search groups, then you free yourself completely from the crawlers, okay? So that's for the end of time. We can move gradually its long path toward this end, but this end should work. There's no technical reason why it wouldn't work. And in the end, we would not index, we would re-index the entire web, but just be more active in the push or receive mode, okay? If you're interested in the project, you can test it. You can test some public nodes, 6.fr, and there's some others. You're going on the website, 6project.info.   The quality of the results is, in my opinion, even better than other engines. You can get in touch with us on IRC. We have a bunch of interesting tasks that need to be addressed. So I'll give you an overview here. If you like peer-to-peer network, if you like distributed hash tables, if you like network security, there are a lot of interesting issues we need to address. Database also, replicated databases. We move slowly, but surely, and we need a lot of different competences. The second point is machine learning. If you like machine learning, if you want to learn more about machine learning, and if you're willing to participate, please come in. There are a lot of interesting tasks to be addressed, and eventually, what you can do with 6 is that, as it is a free software, you can build a user interface of your dream. You don't need to rely on a user interface that the existing engines give you to change whenever they want. You can build whatever you want. So I'm a C++ developer. I can't really design UIs, so I consider that this is a job for the community and users to do whatever they want, try whatever they want. If it fails, it fails. If it's good, it's good. And okay, so that's all. The point being, come and help us if you like the project, or try to use it and see if it's any good for you. Thank you. Thank you very much. Oh, wow. Do I have time for questions on that? One, no. Okay.