The following is a presentation of TFNN the morning market kickoff With your host Tommy O'Brien Good Tuesday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien comedy alive from TFNN 906 a.m. On Tuesday We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading we got markets in positive territory to kick things off You talk about a day yesterday man the volatility in these markets folks You almost cannot overstate the volatility going on you jump over to the Vicks 36 64 before the markets roared back yesterday We finished the day at about 32 on the Vicks we're trading right now 31 68 jumping back to the SMPs I mean this chart we're looking at the move yesterday does not look even as Ridiculous as it was you kick things off folks. You're talking about 100 points to the downside and then back to the upside This is a 15 minute chart that is intraday. You did a hundred points in both directions That's almost two and a half percent in both directions. You trade it from 41 65 Down to 40 56. Okay, so that is about 109 points to the downside from 10 30 in the morning until 2 30 in the afternoon and then in the final hour and a half of the trading day you traded up folks Exactly 100 points almost to the tick 4056 is the low and we come into 41 56 point 25 We made it 100 points and a quarter to the upside after trading down 109 points you're currently trading almost right where you were as we kicked off the acceleration to lower prices Again, you cannot overstate the moves Nasdaq 100. We actually accelerated above where we were early in the day 13,000 down to 12,700 we're back to 13,100 this morning. You have the Dow trading at 33,000 We were at 32,358. You're talking about 650 points down and up in the Dow Bitcoin 38,395 you got a theory and right now trading at 28 36. We jumped to commodities gold quite a day to the downside Yesterday, we make a low overnight at 1849 you have gold flat on the session technically at 1864 We're about 15 bucks off the lows from this morning though. You jump to crude Little volatility yesterday and crude as well. We're sitting at almost 104 103 86 and the price of crude and we jumped to Excuse me the all-important notes and bonds. We got the tenure slight reprieve right now. We touched Two points not to we touched 3% yesterday folks. I was talking about it on my program It was quite an acceleration zooming in on the action yesterday, right program began at 9 a.m. There's your 9 a.m. Bar. We're at 118 22 by the end of the day. You were at 1806 you make it to 1804 and change overnight and since then slight reprieve we get the 10 year yield right now sitting at 2.93% 2.93% so we hit 3% you back off a bit still right near that 3% number The Fed comes out with their announcement tomorrow 2 p.m. Eastern time press conference to follow at 2 30 All but assured you'll get a 50 basis point hike We'll see what the chairman has to say following it in the press conference Remarkable times who are living in folks. That is what we'll say to say the least All right, let's jump around to what we got going on this morning And we're gonna start with a little bit of bearish headlines folks. Okay, and we're gonna kick things off with Big stock bears say S&P 500 bottom still another 700 points away Morgan Stanley's Wilson sees the S&P falling to as low as 3460 now I found this interesting. Okay, the group watching for a slide toward the 3,500 to 3,700 mark. Okay, so After extending its 2022 decline to 13% S&P's in danger of an even deeper dive in the months ahead according to technical and macro research team at Strategist strickey strategic us strategic us strategic research partners the group led by Chris Chris Varone is watching 3,500 to 3,700 that Encompasses the gauge 200 week moving average in the midpoint of its entire rally. This is the important part Okay, that is that that is what I'm looking at. It's the midpoint. It's the 50% folks from the entire rally From the 2020 pandemic bottom a drop to 3,500 would represent an additional 16% loss from Monday's close folks If you don't think the market can pull back 16% in the future considering what we're coming up against right now Okay, the Fed is gonna begin hiking Now they've already begun you could say but they're really gonna start bringing it tomorrow and they're gonna bring it for some time man We got inflation out of control one of the articles. I'm gonna be talking about is housing again through the roof for housing The risk is there whether it plays out, okay, nobody can be sure But as our man Larry Pezzavento says don't think about how much you can make think about how much you can lose Because it's interesting in that terms of the headline here from Paul Tudor Jones, okay This is out this morning as well. Maybe he was on CNBC not sure just jumping around to the headlines Can't think of a worse financial environment for stocks or bonds right now I mean the tough part right is that what are you gonna do sell stocks and go into bonds? Maybe you got inflation out of control Okay, so what's that gonna do that's gonna push the price of those bonds down as yields are rising you have the Fed pulling back monumental amount of Fixed income asset buying that is gonna put less of a bid on them It's gonna allow the price to go down. It's gonna allow the yield to go up That is the whole purpose of what they're doing. That's a tough time to be in bonds potentially Okay, and one of the things he said folks was capital preservation, which is why I wanted to bring this up, okay? Some of the quotes in here. I think we're in one of those very difficult periods We're simply capital preservation is I think the most important thing we can strive for I don't know if it's gonna be one of those periods. We're actually trying to make money. My dad's been talking about it What's what's the reason to buy? What's the reason to buy out there as you're coming into? Let alone the Fed, okay We got Apple and Amazon saying the next quarter is gonna be tough And that's like just the beginning of potentially where things go right Apple saying we're just starting to see the harsh effect of The China shutdown supply chain constraints four to eight billion dollars Amazon loses money in North America operations They lose money period for the last quarter. They said they're probably gonna lose money this quarter again Now I've been Amazon bull for the long run folks This is a time when you get a pullback like that and keeping in mind right Amazon's pullback going on a little bit of a long-term Amazon bull tangent Part of the reason for Amazon's bull pullback is that they're building out too quickly Right, they built out too quickly and demand started to wane That demand will pick back up folks. They're even saying it will pick back up Okay, I found most remarkable that they had hired almost 800,000 workers over the last two years almost doubling their workforce think about that think about the workforce that Amazon had as we came into the pandemic Monumental right think about the warehouse staff, etc. They doubled it They doubled the staff they had in two years let alone building out the warehouses, right? They picked up a bunch of airplanes during the pandemic at Basement prices when nobody was flying anywhere that will pay dividends in the future But the market is not willing to look a year or two into the future if you tell them the next six to nine months Might be a little harsh especially in this environment Just keep these words in mind. We're gonna go over some of the charts We're gonna take a break in a few in a minute But many on Wall Street have gone more concerned that the central bank could tick the tip the economy some points I agree with I just want to talk about here still in the middle of a pandemic into a recession aggressive tightening They've got inflation on the one hand slowing growth on the other They're gonna be clashing all the time and yeah, they are gonna be clashing all the time And what else you have you have war going on right you have supply chain issues going on that are going to persist in China at least for The foreseeable future you jump back to the S&P folks. All right, there's your action this morning We're up by five points. You take a look at a longer-term chart Here's the pandemic low 21 74 the 382 is well within play folks of 3,800 and there's your mark Okay, there's your mark for the 3,500 price point 50% where we are compensation when we get back folks Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market To stay on top of stock patterns You can take advantage of sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at tfnn.com When you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all He's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking Expect notifications from Larry on market movement You need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors What's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street? 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They break down the day's market action and boy We got quite a week man. We got a Fed meeting tomorrow. We got non-farm payrolls on Friday We got earnings coming out each and every day Kevin Hanks. Good morning Good morning, Tommy O'Brien. Yep the first day of a Fed of a two-day Fed meeting welcome to paralysis and analysis And so all we're gonna do is sit around for the next day till tomorrow about two o'clock Eastern and Analyze what we think is gonna happen Tommy and so here's the staff that I think your viewers need to know the last Fed meeting was March 15th and 16th and On March 14th the S&P closed at 41 71 and within two weeks The 29th of March we had gone up to 46 21 remember. That's when Jerome Powell raised interest rates He talked about being hawkish and fighting inflation and we still had a pretty significant But 450 point rally in the S&P since then it's failed as you would think as the rhetoric has teamed up but Don't discount the opportunity for a relief rally coming out of this because if you look at the 10-day charter So when Jerome Powell mentioned he was gonna raise rates by 50 basis points the market has sold off dramatically So what happens then tomorrow? We'll see what how Jerome Powell? Focuses his attention going forward, but till then Tommy it's kind of instant today and for the next four days We'll get a bunch of employment data each day jolt today ADP Wednesday Jobless claims Thursday non-comparels Friday, so we'll get a big dose of employment and some earnings But Tommy the next 36 hours are all about Jerome Powell Yeah, I got the chart up in the thinker swim platform and just the S&P futures and yeah quite a run man March 14th March 15th. We're making a low right down at about where we are right now charge higher above 4600 up to March 29th and then as we know things change we're right back to where we were man at their last meeting Which is pretty remarkable So we look for like you said tomorrow's meeting now Kevin. What do you think because? We have a calm market right now for sure man We're looking at an S&P within a few ticks of where we closed technically yesterday the Russell's flat the Nasdaq is within 29 points S&P is yesterday Kevin 109 points down and 100 points up all Intra-day, what do you think about the volatility just in general man? When you're getting two and a half percent moves almost intraday on the S&P let alone the volatility that the Nasdaq is used to Two and a half percent man. Poof. Wait. What's the general take when you look at a market that is that uncertain? Almost to where prices be where two and a half percent every few hours the whole S&P 500 can trade What would you take on just the volatility in general and yesterday at the throat? Look at the Vic Tommy sitting at or near or slightly above 32. It got it's high yesterday I believe it's 35 Yeah, 36 64 35 before it backed off. So listen Tommy There's a lot of speculation right about what Jerome Paul's gonna say the overall Hit, you know stock market with raising interest rates There's a lot of unknown and uncertainty makes implied volatility go higher So do I know which way the market's gonna go? No, I don't but I do expect it to be movement It to be choppy the fix is telling you that so there's information in option order flows So, you know, I think it's interesting that the that the 10-year yield is back it off pretty significantly this morning But I expect volatility to stay high for the near term now if we rally off this point tomorrow This will come down But it's still gonna stay elevated right the all-time average is about 15.39 once it went to the S&P 500 away from the old OEX I think elevated implied volatility are here to stay Tommy Yeah, it's really remarkable when you think about how many months you got to go forward Kevin If not years that we're gonna have some pretty persistent volatility and uncertainty causing that volatility man You know, even if all goes well in terms of the Fed raising rates Soft landing bringing inflation down. There's gonna be many many months going forward man I know you know this the listeners do as well But it's just interesting to think about many many months if not years that we're gonna be like coming up on these important economic numbers and saying Okay, is the trend working is the Fed gonna be impacted is inflation back to 3% is it back to two and a half We live in interesting times is the expression man. It's said many times. I think it applies to where we are right now With that in mind Kevin, what are you guys gonna be talking about coming up today on fast market at 12? Three good names today Tommy with earnings coming out In the first segment we'll go with advanced micro devices AMD And then in our second segment like folio will do presentation on Starbucks and we'll trade Starbucks And then we'll finish up with lift that has earnings as well. So three good earnings names coming up That that will cover all today on fast market And you got some real pullbacks and all of those man these chips AMD up to 164 back to 90 Starbucks man strong strong company about 126 back to 75 remarkable some of the pullbacks we've had in this market going on S&P only back about 23% Kevin is where they are for the full COVID run using a little Fibonacci there But some of these equities just such harsh pullbacks the Nasdaq right at the 3a to Uncertainty to say the least well Kevin. We appreciate the time. We appreciate the update as always man We'll be watching fast market at 12 for those equities And I'm sure you might have a little discussion about this market in general as well Kevin We appreciate it man. We'll talk to you tomorrow and we'll be watching at 12 today We'll see you then Tommy have a great day you too folks tune in every trading day 12 noon eastern time fast market Kevin Hanks Tom White they do an outstanding job of breaking down the nays market action They'll walk you through the general market. What's going on? They walk you through the hypothetical trade setups yesterday They were talking about Airbnb a great discussion going on yesterday Airbnb trading right now They got their earnings after the bell tonight Just a great discussion overall folks in an outstanding time to check it out when we have volatility in spades as my dad would say All right, let's jump back to see what we have going on We'll jump around to some of the fang stocks speaking of Amazon Amazon Yesterday think it was 3% down and 3% up for Amazon. You're down to 23 67 on the open You charge higher and almost make it to 2,500 by the end of the trading day. You finish a 2490 man can't overstate this volatility and I tell you folks this volatility is Really the most worrisome thing to me in terms of the risk to the downside, okay When markets can roll over My opinion and this is an opinion is that they don't roll over instantly Okay, because you can't just go straight down or everybody figures it out And they sell the much easier way to go down is to give people hope over and over and over and take that hope away So that they're fearful of selling and missing the next pop upward If you realize that we have a market folks That within yesterday's trading day alone Could not accurately price the S&P within 2% of its determined value That is not something that normally takes place. That is an absurd amount of uncertainty And you at least should be recognizing the potential that that uncertainty Could play out to the downside. Okay, we're sitting at almost 41 50 in the S&P's folks The low during COVID was 21 and change. We came into COVID at about 3,200 We're almost a thousand points above where we were at just two years ago. We'll finish this conversation up We'll be back for the open S&P's flat coming into the open and bells If you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report The gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold Which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee So you have nothing to lose every Monday morning I published a gold report with covered of gold silver bonds the XAU HUI GDX as well as more than 30 different mining equities To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting TFNN.com don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today TFNN has just launched their new trading room the Tiger's Den hosted at discord TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigris's for just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the Tigers Den you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they Analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas interact with other Tigers and Tigris's as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all Trading day even at night and on the weekends the Tigers Den at discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well So it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders Just visit the front page of TFNN.com TFNN is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts in Collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any traders methodology Using this first-of-its-kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci Formation setups including guardleaf ABCs butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when Scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months Searching to find and right now. We're offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day Uneditional money-back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today By visiting TFNN.com This segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com Welcome back folks. We got markets open and we got a flat market We'll see if we get that Paralysis through waiting for the Fed for the next 36 hours as our mayor Kevin Hicks was talking about right now We're basically at flat pretty remarkable in terms of where we were yesterday in the action So as I was talking about two and a half percent folks when the market can't figure out within two and a half percent of where It should be intraday. You have to worry that it's very uncertain And when it's very uncertain you see what can happen in the likes of some of the multiples of the growth companies like Kevin's gonna be talking about coming up later You got AMD these chip companies man. They were just remarkably strong Did you ever think that AMD was gonna go back to prices? You were trading at in August of 2020 folks after it was up to 165 late November of this year That was a similar time frame to Netflix They are well below that level but again Netflix was at 700 bucks on November 15th folks. It's barely May. Okay What else were they talking about Starbucks? Through the 618 of the entire COVID run its head. All right, you have very very strong companies Okay, now Starbucks isn't some fantastic growth company that's got a 200 multiple and Meanwhile Starbucks has given up more than a 618 of its entire run from COVID You're telling me that the SMP is sitting at the 236 and you should not at least be considering that it has the possibility to trade back to the 382 Something I'm keeping my eye on folks if you're in a retirement That maybe your days of earning a living wage or pasture and you're living on that income that you've secured Capital preservation right now folks because yeah, it's unfortunate if you didn't sell when we were back up here at 4,600 Just a month ago But you're still sitting at 41 45 folks. There's a very real chance you're at 3500 There's a very real chance you're at 3800 all that does is take you back to a pre COVID level of 3400 Do you remember the days that many of us said geez? It would just be nice if COVID hasn't hadn't happened and destroyed the market because we were coming into things so well at 3400 in the SMP. Well, yeah, you're still sitting 750 points above that price level be aware of where we are folks Okay, we're coming into some very dicey times right now and it's gonna persist for a year or two.  This is a rosy scenario You're gonna get inflation back pretty quickly to potentially three percent potentially three and a half percent But the push to get it down to two and a half to two percent Maybe the toughest obstacle of all and what happens then if we still have a recession Breaking into the economy you still have inflation at above two and a half percent Dicey scenario that could play out keep it on your radar folks as our man Larry says I talk about many times Very important to talk about right now. I think don't think about what you make think about what you can lose, okay? Yeah, and all this chairmen it does create some remarkable trading opportunities In this market two and a half percent down and up yesterday folks doesn't even make sense Actually read one Article last week and I'm gonna see if I can find this at the break. I was talking about the Nasdaq 100 over a hundred days Okay, let's pull up the Nasdaq 100 because this is one This is the statistic that really started to give me a little bit of pause Over the last hundred days the Nasdaq 100 has traded with an average volatility of 1.6% per a day. Did you hear that the average move in the Nasdaq 100 over a 100 day period was 1.6% That is a highly uncertain period of time folks and the market hates uncertainty Can't overstate that one. Alright, let's jump around to some of the equities We got moving this morning. We got some companies out with numbers. We'll stay with streaming for a moment paramount Mrs. Coolie quarterly revenue estimates on weak ad sales. So paramount plus Added 6.8 million subscribers in the quarter bringing the services total subscribers to 40 million declines in direct-to-consumer services subscription net earnings the Tributal fell to 433 million from 9 11 a year earlier. It is a tough deal man going into streaming Let's jump around Because you got two choices in the streaming sector. You either got to be the big dog that competes with Netflix Amazon Prime Disney Or you got to be a niche player and each player that you create Something that is worth subscribing to a strong enough part of the consumer base Not sure where some of these fall. Okay, so paramounts down 5.7% today There's your five minute. They spiked to 3117. There are 2844 would take a long-term chart of this thing the Bill Huang saga Talk about Putting a little bit of a bid up there to 101 97. I mean you just take that out of it though Right, let's just say you take that out of it completely And you say it bases around 40 for the better part of last year still straight into 28 folks You're still down 30% from where this thing was coming into the later part of last year for paramount Yeah, too many companies chasing too few additional customers. It's a tough one. I agree Duffy In my house, I'm thinking about it right now for the first time in a while that we got too many services going on because what do We have I have Amazon Prime, which I'll probably always keep because it goes well beyond what we're talking about with streaming Very rarely watch Amazon Prime actually, but I would if I probably cut the cord with some of the others are paying I have Netflix in the house. I have HBO. I got Disney I get the Disney bundle which comes with ESPN and Hulu and then we have cable on top of it Shame on me, right? I should probably be cutting some of those and When you add it all up Now the the the battle there is what do you cut? I Don't know on HBO's got some great programs coming out Netflix is something that the kids love and we love as well Ozark just released their final season been watching the the final six episodes of that Disney the kids love they watch Frozen every night, right? I The one thing I will say is I think the Disney bundle is the quickest cut of all because I watched no ESPN plus Hulu some in the house like it But who is a weird one too because then you have the elevated level of like Hulu plus or something like that I don't think that's what you get in the streaming deal, but nonetheless Paramount selling off down 7.2% We'll jump the water. Okay, now they're paying a price, too. They're down 1.8 percent We put it back on the daily. This is one of brothers discovery. Okay. This is HBO You're down 1.8 percent today you just pull back from 27 bucks to 17 This is what I've been looking at. Let's just put it that way. All right, you're right back to almost pre-covid level 1712 we just made a low what I say 1789. Yes, 1789 on their earnings and HBO Will be a player folks. All right, they're led by the CEO that was in charge of discovery a streaming veteran veteran and HBO consistently has some of the best content out there and content is king. There's no doubt about it. Okay I'm watching succession right now. I'm on the final third season. I think a succession I've got a couple other shows on HBO. I want to watch. I saw that there's Some great documentaries coming out there George Carlin. There's a George Carlin two-part documentary coming out I want to check out on HBO. Can't wait to check that that went out But they're all in trouble man in a big way Netflix you jump over I Be real careful in Netflix man down 1.4 percent because their whole business model is changing and when you think that You can accurately reflect the price of something when their whole business model is changing that is a tough one Disney We're still in Disney in my newsletter folks. You're up nine tenths percent today and They're any any very unique spot, which is why I've been so bold for them so long they've kind of faced a perfect storm here in terms of Pandemic problems movie theater problems the park's getting shut down Now they're dealing with streaming problems, okay But in the long run folks, there's only one Disney. There's only one Mickey Mouse. There's only one Star Wars There's only one Marvel Comics. Okay, the brands they control in the future are gonna pay dividends let alone the Disney parks Stay tuned folks. 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We got the S&P is sitting right above flat We're up two points right now Nasdaq barely in the red You got the Dow up 20 points Russell positive by one crude back above 104 right now You put crude on a five minute you get a little bit of acceleration man this crew market We just got a 102 handle a 103 handle and a 104 handle since 915 this morning folks Okay, watch out for that crew market and gold catching a little bit of a bid after quite a pullback from Friday to Monday Gold right now up about five bucks at 1868 if you haven't checked out the gold report folks great time to do it My dad's outstanding weekly newsletter. He's got a new full report out this morning with a couple buys So if your current subscriber check that out if you're thinking of getting into it might be a great time To check out that gold contract. He's got a little volatility in there And I'll let leave it at that everything we do folks comes with a 30-day money back guarantee So check it out on the front page of tfnn. All right jumping around to what else we got going on Jumping down the line with some of the stocks Logitech Lower 20% drop in sales from a year earlier as the maker of computer mice keyboards and other peripherals face tough comparisons to a pandemic fueled surge Last year. Let's see. Yeah, they're there. That's a tough one man. Everybody built out their home office, right? There's Logitech down 4% you take a look at a longer term timeframe man This is kind of what I was talking about to Kevin, you know some of the pullbacks here folks 140 to 63 and it's not stopping on Logitech and they are a strong company going forward folks They've gotten some big upgrades this year one company called them. I think the you know focused by something like that But not just yet they're down 4.3% on some tough numbers with a 20% slowdown on a yearly basis Let's see Cheg so online education. Yeah, they are tanking check out this one. So I guess people prioritizing working Versus learning man, some of these pullbacks a hundred and fifteen. Are you kidding me to 16 bucks? Where's this thing going in fact almost where you were in 2013 probably when it went public you trade to 1125 You're sitting at 1626 right now And I would expect that that thing could go lower if you're done 35% one day folks watch out man Hilton so let's jump over to Hilton worldwide. They got their numbers out. That's going to be a long-term chart Decent acceleration from COVID this morning though. You're down about 3% on their numbers. So Hilton they beat estimates by 6 cents They made 71 cents a rebound in travel demand issued a lower than expected full-year outlook That is the reason they're down about 3% on their numbers to 150 93 Let's see biogen their CEO is going to be stepping down He's going to stay on till a successor is found they basically came in at estimates and I guess the stock's probably pretty close To flat you're up 1.7% on their numbers as they come in expedia. So Speaking of travel There's a problem folks down 9.2 percent. We jump to Expedia. They lost 47 cents a share Less than the 62 loss that the market was looking for revenue exceeded estimates They gained no they did not gain they they gained last night, but boy the market is punishing them in Just like that you are back to where you were trading at in Expedia in February of 2021 after trading up to 271 And that folks are 271 that was after their last earnings in February 14th less than three months ago You're training 158 is the market rolling over just a little bit S&P's down 11 right now Avis you have the car rental company. It's a good time to be owning a car rental company They were up 7% much better than expected quarterly profit and they also announced a three billion dollar increase in its share repurchase authorization The car companies oh They give it back though just like that man you charge higher on their earnings last night whatever happened on the conference call I guess just the market opened and you give it back. It's a dicey scenario man I mean they crushed it right they crushed it and they're barely positive right now You take a look at the longer-term timeframe now this car company remember The Wall Street traders love this thing got a little bit bonkers up to 545 at one point You're sitting at 280 300 looks to be a little bit of a head for Avis alright, I'm gonna jump to I miss I mentioned the housing market There was an interesting article out here in Bloomberg this morning I was reading the hot housing market makes the feds inflation fighting job even tougher with mortgage rates going up But underlying demand still strong policy makers may have to hike higher just one of the risks You should be thinking about folks all right We all have our personal biases when I'm trying to do is put out as much information out there That you can be aware of the risks where they were where they are where the possible rewards are okay This housing market is a risk When you think about that if it still persists higher folks and those costs are rising that is inflationary And to get a hold of that they'd have to hike even higher Something to think about as this market marches forward because getting a hold of inflation where it is right now is not gonna be easy to say the least Officials are counting low on the higher mortgage rates to throw cold water on the frenzied housing market as they work to tame the highest inflation in decades But the market may not cool fast enough. That is the key there. Okay? Rising rates higher home prices. They are locking buyers up. My dad Did a great program last Friday. You can head on over to our YouTube page folks So what would last Friday be that would be April 29th Tom O'Brien show he was on there with best for Bihuli Talking real estate and one of the things they went through is the straight-out math of What happens to a monthly payment when you get just a rise from about 3% to 5% And it's a substantial rise folks in some cases you go from maybe paying 1200 bucks a month to paying close to 1800 bucks a month for the same exact property 50% increase in your monthly payment that is going to impact the market So yes, there will probably be an impact, but where that actually starts to come about we will see Average 30 year fixed mortgage back about 5% as we know you go from 5 and 2019 You make it all the way down to 2.7% at the end of 2020 and man It's been quite a rise since we kicked off the year think about it We had the mortgage rate at 3% to kick off the year. You're at 5% now on that mortgage rate All right, let's jump around to some of the other stories. I had up here Pfizer out with their numbers they cut 2020 earnings outlook despite strong first quarter COVID vaccine and antiviral sales They now expect so this is the outlook 625 to 645 a slight decrease from where they were they beat on the top and bottom line in the first quarter driven by strong sales of the vaccine and oral antiviral treatments 13.2 billion dollars of the vaccine and 1.5 billion of the antiviral treatment Paxlovid in the first quarter you jump over to pop visor shares and They're down about 8 tenths percent a little bit of volatility on their numbers But basically almost flat you take a look at the longer term timeframe But where we've been with Pfizer well off the highs of 61 bucks man of where we came into the new year We're trading at about 47 87 Let's jump around to some of the travel stocks as we come into this break You got Delta right now down about half a percent trading at 42 47 Pretty decent pop in the last six weeks or so for Delta two months almost now From about 30 bucks you're up almost 40 percent from that low folks trading at 42 bucks on Delta You jump to United United right now basically five fifty twenty one you jump domestically jet blue Yeah, jet blues in trouble man. I love jet blue They've had some great fairs from Tampa to Boston. I remember when they serve first started servicing Tampa Great Airlines one of the first airlines that had like great nice TVs nice new planes But boy, they got some issues right now folks. You're trading at 11 Dollars and 20 cents almost cut in half from where you were a year ago Stay tuned folks. We'll be right back to finish up the show We're gonna talk a little bit about Larry's live trading workshop coming up Stay tuned sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you Make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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We have the market right now We're sitting negative one point in the S&P's excuse me two points making Nasdaq negative by 51 Pretty tame market to kick things off. And yeah, we're gonna wait until 2 p.m. Eastern time tomorrow Very possible. That is 28 hours from right now. We got a Fed announcement one half hour after that We get a press conference. It'll be an interesting one to say the least folks jumping back to the front page of TFNN.com Folks our man Larry Pesmento. He has a live trading webinar coming up two weeks from today He'll be in there all trading day 9 a.m. till 2 p.m. I say all trading day folks the reason why Larry sets this up from 9 till 2 is that he very rarely trades for The final two hours of the day. So there's where the action is 9 a.m. till 2 p.m. Eastern time. I think I Recall how many said I think he says gonna try and get at least like six trades in there Maybe one an hour something like that. Don't hold me to that one because I think I just heard him say that on his show But he'll be in their live trading folks two weeks from today now the cost to attend $295 if you are a subscriber to Larry's daily trading service Fibonacci 24-7. Okay You get one month free included The better way to say that is people who attend Larry's live trading course a month of his newsletter is included Which is a $97 value if you're already signed up for Larry's newsletter and you sign up for this course Your next newsletter payment will be skipped. So there's where you gain the $97 if you are not signed up for Larry's Fibonacci 24-7 you get a month of that service included in this Okay, so when you sign up is when you receive Fibonacci 24-7. I Mentioned that because there's no reason to wait until Tuesday, May 17th to sign up folks I encourage you to sign up today you gain access to Fibonacci 24-7 and this live trading webinar will be taking place at our Discord server for the first time Larry will be doing this in the discord server. All right Not within the Tigers then we set up a separate channel for those who have signed up for the live trading webinar If you're in the Tigers then it's as simple as you'll be granted access You'll be able to click on the button within the Tigers stand trading room For special access to this live trading room But again, I encourage you to sign up early folks because if you're not in the room You got to get into our discord server It does not take more than just a few minutes practically, but please don't wait until the end on this one Okay, because if everybody signs up at 9 a.m. On Tuesday, May 17th, and they have to get in the discord room We're gonna take a few minutes to get you in there now This will be archived as well all five hours will be archived and folks There is no better time than right now in this market than a live trading webinar when we got the SMP Trading up and down two and a half percent and look at this chart You can't even see the volatility because we've moved so much. You got 4,300 in here. You got 40 40 Thanks so much for starting your trading day off with me folks. Stay tuned our man Basel's up next Larry at 11 live programming all day folks


thing I think I should mention as well is sometimes it's actually better for your mental health and more autism friendly not to advocate for yourself that completely goes against the whole theme of this podcast but I think it's important to always kind of qualify a message. Sometimes I look at a situation and I think to get the adjustment that would work really well for me I'm going to have to speak to about five different people I'm going to have to justify myself five different times I'm going to have to wait to hear back from this person to speak to that person and suddenly that's actually more damaging for me than going through the thing that I was initially scared of just by getting a very basic support if I'm having to speak to a million people to get it and the chances I won't be that helpful anyway I think you know what it's better to just cut your losses and to go through the initial thing it will cost less energy


Hello everybody, welcome to another social distancing social from future tense, which is a partnership of Slate, New America and Arizona State University as I need to remind you. Today we are going to be talking about the role of first, I guess I should again introduce myself again I'm Jordan Weissman Slate senior business and economics correspondent. And we're going to be talking about the role of the private sector in times of crisis, because we're in a crisis. It's sort of pretty bad crisis. We're facing unemployment unseen since the Great Depression and a plague all at once it's a little bit of a nasty combo. And so I am joined by Rebecca Henderson, a professor at Harvard Business School, who has a recent book reimagined capitalism in a world on fire, in which she argues that capitalism sort of needs to be rethought businesses need to change the way they act in a environmental catastrophe and spiraling inequality. I am also joined by Dean Sanjeev Kagram of Dean and Director General of the Thunderbird School of Global Management at Arizona State University. Sanjeev and Rebecca, thank you for joining me. Thank you for having us. I'm going to start by directing question to you right now.  I think we've lost Rebecca at the moment there seems to have been some technical difficulties. So Sanjeev, it's you and I talking for the moment. Okay, no worries. We can adapt. The people doing if Broadway stars doing, you know, a good proposition. Yeah, you attribute to, you know, company or whatnot and deal technical difficulties so can we. So you are. Thunderbird is all about change you teach about how to deal change how to Oh, Rebecca, you're back. All right, go back over. This is this is this is life in the air of COVID and maybe the future after COVID we're going to talk about that is this is this is this what we are all bound to be doing for the rest of our lives as workers. So, you wrote a whole book about capital capitalism needs to change to deal with the various heart rate of horrors that we're dealing from climate change inequality. First, I have a question. How, you know, specifically kind of give me an overview of the ways you thought capitalism needed to change. And does the crisis that we are now facing make that more or less likely that that is going to happen in your opinion. Are we going to see the change we need. I thought that capitalism was wildly unbalanced. I'm a huge fan of capitalism. I teach at the Harvard Business School I think it's unparalleled source of prosperity, but we were going in a bad direction. How could you tell we weren't dealing with the environmental crisis, particularly climate change. The prosperity that we were generating was not being shared anything like widely, and our political systems were starting to shake under the strain. And there was a widespread perception in fact here in the US that the political system was rigged that nothing they people could do would make a difference creating all kinds of institutional pressures. So it felt to me as if capitalism was wildly out of balance. I like to say that free markets need free politics, as much as business people don't don't care much for regulators or government, they need them. And I think what the pandemic has shown us is that that is true in space. I mean inequality has become much more visible. We've seen the essential workers not being able to take time off if even if they're sick. And we've seen that yes you need a federal government that the failure of the federal government to step up and act as a coordinate unit to provide a public good is a huge problem. So I think the pandemic has really thrown a spotlight on on our problems in a way that you know people say how did you know to call it.  Previously California was literally in Australia were literally on fire now it's now we're dealing with now we're dealing with a different play well now actual play a different horrible misfortune. I want to come back to this question of whether or not businesses are or kind of the corporate communities learning that change really needs to happen, or if it maybe is getting the opposite lesson I want to come back to that but before we get deep into that the weeds there said I want to ask you, you know you're, you, you guys at Thunderbird very much believe that we're heading for or we're heading for an era of rapid change that businesses, either technologically because of technology or politics needed to kind of rethink the way they are going to be working. I was hoping rather than me but words in your mouth a you could kind of give me, you know, the elevator pitch version of the change that you, you foresaw and also how is this pandemic, possibly going to change that or alter the course of that change. Well, I want to just say that I very much agree with Rebecca's analysis and that's where we, you know I took over Thunderbird two years ago and as I have said again and again there are three fundamental challenges slash opportunities and they're very much aligned with what Rebecca said. The first one is globalization and that sort of the rise of nationalism the populism which are connected to that inequalities that Rebecca was talking about absolutely right. Globalization was incredibly successful in terms of lifting lots of people out of poverty, incredible transformation but there was a lot of undersides and inequality was a major fundamental part of that. The second is the sustainability of the planet again would Rebecca one just confirm exactly climate change. You know we're talking about the Australian fires my partners Australian, we were actually there during the fires that feels like a decade ago. But now that we're in go you know to be because you know we were there watching this thing in Victoria and, you know, really family members houses going on fire. So, you know, absolutely, whether it's definitely climate change but the six extinction one could go on and on and on. But for me the and us the optimistic side or the potential side possible side was the fourth industrial revolution with all of its challenges was still that this cascading set of technologies, AI Internet of Things 3D printing on and on and on. And how do we maximize the benefits of this fourth industrial revolution, learning from the previous three and minimize this cost the issues of privacy and cyber and all the other things that we know to advance a sustainable equitable prosperity so very much again in line with what Rebecca was saying. And our view was pre COVID that that had to do with having three things. One was a new set of sort of global leaders and managers that could both embrace like have what we call a digital global mindset. A global mindset is something for us where it's a, it's actually an actual inventory and intellectual social and psychological proclivities fluencies for bringing the world together for working across cultures across borders and so forth and so on. A second is a real digital sort of sensibility. Not everyone has to be a Python expert but they have everyone in our view in the global business sector let's focus on that since that's the focus has to be able to embrace these new tech technologies understand how they work and what their upsides and downsides are and be able to work them. And then a third is a read. And this is again very much in line, a recalibration of the social contract for business and society, and in particular, a new kind of approach to cross sectoral sort of private public civil society relations, and we focus particularly that at the global level, where global cooperation as we know, over the last five years has really declined dramatically the pandemic is a perfect example of it where we don't have the kind of global cooperation we had during the global financial economic crisis with the G 20 and so forth. So that's really, you know, those are the fundamental building blocks. And COVID as I've written about and I believe strongly is only, I think Rebecca agrees, accelerated these transformations and put them into sharp relief. So, I want to connect something you both kind of touched on which is this idea of recalibrating the social contract that something again there there needs to be, we need to rethink the relationship between business and government or public and private sector. But, you know, Rebecca, you said that you feel like the COVID is sort of highlighted the need for that that it's sort of brought into even sharper relief than it was before. But let me put on my cynic tap here. Right. If I'm, let me put a sentence that if I'm a fortune 500 CEO, what I see is just happened is that Congress in the United States, we had a pandemic and there was a late response, but Congress eventually passed a 2.2 trillion dollar bill that allowed the Federal Reserve, among other things to start to stabilize the entire corporate debt market and make sure that large corporations were going to be able to float through this, even if business is bad, they're going to survive stocks are up. And while the rest of the bailout might not exactly be doing what it's supposed to big business is going to survive. And it's going to come out of this okay. Isn't, isn't it possible that one lesson that corporations are going to learn is actually the social contract is working pretty well for them, even when things get get bad. No. Okay. Okay, tell me why the cynic here is wrong. What we're seeing, I think is a continuation of business as usual before the pandemic, which is a nasty tendency for business to be able to privatize the upside and socialize the downside. So in that sense, what we've seen is, that's a little harsh for just happened. I think very hard for a government to let the large corporations go down, or to let the credit markets go down the knock on effects on the rest of the economy would be huge. I think if I'm a CEO I'm not saying, Oh, this shows all right all's right with the world. I think CEOs take the big CEOs take it completely for granted. Of course, our stability is warranted. Of course they stabilize the credit market. Whoa, we still have a very serious problem. These are small things but do you remember in the early days of the pandemic we had billionaires tweeting from their yacht.  Yes, I do recall the super yachts. Trust in business has fallen significantly over the pandemic. If you look at the latest Edelman survey. Trust in business is in government is way up. Trust in business is way down. The perception that the rich are sitting on their yachts making out like bandits while I am delivering food on the front lines without bonus pay without health care. That perception has got stronger and every CEO I know is is worried about it. It used to be tough for me to sometimes raise these issues of inequalities with business people. Now it's easy. Now it's clearly top of mind. So no, I don't think they feel more relaxed. I think they feel more jumpy. Since you said that, you've talked to CEOs who are more worried. Can you give me some anonymous samples of the kinds of things you've heard from them? Like what are they telling you? Are they fearing the pitchforks? So it used to be when I said if we don't address these problems we face either right wing or left wing populism and both of them end in extraction and you're not going to like that. People used to look at me like, whoa, whoa, slow down Henderson. What are you thinking? Now people go, uh-huh. That's a very different response. That idea that no seriously that the system may be fundamentally at risk. And I think to be fair, a lot of business people are very distressed by what they're seeing. That seeing this kind of widespread unemployment, seeing people struggle, seeing the visceral problem of what it's like to be trying to survive at the bottom of the income distribution. You know, most CEOs spend a lot of time in bubbles, very nicely lined bubbles working incredibly hard. And I think one of the things the pandemic has done is shatter that bubble just a little bit to sort of have a broader engage a thought of what's going on. Sorry, I'll stop. I can keep going. I'm an academic. I'll stop. Oh, so this is actually, this is interesting because I'm going to try to translate a little bit what, you know, what I think you're saying and then kind of turn it back over to the Dean. But, you know, I think a lot of critics of contemporary capitalism will say that there used to be this mentality in the United States that even though there were class divides, there were still sort of a unanimity of purpose that everyone understood there was like, a little part of a civil society. Right. And that was sort of born out of wartime that there was some, you know, there were there were connections between the guy running GM and his workers. And it sounds like what you're saying is and that they all needed the system to work for anyone to kind of thrive. What sounds like you're saying is that we're kind of going through a wartime experience now in a way that's making people realize, that we all need a system that benefits everyone or it's all going to fall apart. It's going to be trouble is that, is that a, that we're kind of getting a taste of life during wartime is that a maybe a thing to I think Rebecca may have been lost again. I think we've lost her. I think we've lost her feed so unfortunately technical difficulty strike again that Sanjeev I guess let me let me then ask you you mentioned that you think there needs to be a change in the social contract between business and the public sector or wider society. And that's sort of what Rebecca's talking about is there needs to be a change in the social contract that and now this is sort of an aha moment for a lot of CEOs. What, what are you imagining this change would look like what how how does the the compact underpinning business and society need to change and Yeah, I mean I guess I mean I appreciate Jordan the focus on CEOs and I appreciate the focus on the US but I want to be a little bit provocative here and actually push us out of that because we have a tendency to look at everything from the United States and from the most powerful within US corporations and the world is changed dramatically I am in the heart of very provincial New Yorker.  I grew up in New Jersey, but I was born in bad so we are a global school. I just was on a webinar webinar with Kenyan head of the Kenyan securities exchange the head of Safari calm this morning. CEOs around the world we've had global ours with CEOs from all over the world and companies from all over the world. We have to we have to sort of take what's happening and let's look at what's happening in terms of global capitalist right now. Look at China right now this the engine of globalism for the last globalization for the last 25 years. That system is no matter how much, you know, people try to wrap around this we know right now that it's, it's, it's shaky at best. The sinophobia that exists in the world amongst the private sector as much as governments around the world is at all time peaks, the push to move to decentralize or diversify the global supply chains, either bring them back on shore to the United States or Europe or wherever it might be, or more importantly to take it elsewhere to India to wherever it might be. That's a fundamental driver that's happening right now and Kobe has just, you know, kind of ripped the band aid off completely. Right. Now, let's go back to what's happening in terms of corporate CEOs if you look, you know, I talked to them like Rebecca does, but look at their if you look at the confidence surveys. Six months ago, they're all thinking, you know, we're going to go to a soft landing in the global economy, but we're still going to be fine. We're still going to make lots of money. Our companies and us individually. Now, if you look at it's very variable. I mean if you look at Australian CEOs, they think we're going they're going to rebound really well that's probably because Australia's didn't really well a great job of handling COVID. Obviously us CEOs are, you know, in despair. We had the Boeing CEO on come on today earlier right. Rebecca saying, you know, we're looking at airlines going away. So despite your previous question about the $2.2 trillion package and more to come that was quote unquote could be seen as bailouts for companies. In fact, there's going to be fundamental transformation disruption and industry in the US, including. So one, let's take a global perspective and see how it's, you know, capitalism is global, and it's come and but, you know, different governance systems. You know what's happening in Sweden is totally different. That's what's happening, you know, in Brazil. Let's look at Brazil. I mean, look at what's happening in Brazil, totally different. I took CEOs in Brazil, and they're in complete despair because you know what kind they were just seeming to get out of what was a doldrums for a long time in Brazil. And now that's completely changed. Given that we have what we're predicting now is from 200 million unemployment in the world to 400 million. That's the latest ILO figures. Yeah, there's no way that a corporation and a CEO and their board is not looking at that and exactly saying what Catherine I mean Rebecca saying we can't there's no we have to fundamentally transform. And we did just I'll put the last point on this. We did a global in our with MUFG, which is the fifth largest bank in the world we had the CFO, we had all the senior leadership. They instituted pre COVID compassion training in all of their with all of their employees around the world. And now they want to be the most trusted bank in the world to go back to Rebecca your great point about trust and business sector trust going down and government going up which which was different pre COVID right. The whole focus on trust will require businesses corporations and therefore CEOs to make really dramatic shifts and how they engage with customers with suppliers with other stakeholders and we were already talking about this at the World Economic Forum in January when the pandemic was already going on and we were all sitting there thinking like nothing's happening. And there it was we came back and it's a full blown global pandemic. Just the dramatic shift we went from a global economy that we expect you to go 3% this year, and now we're down to a negative 3%. It's a total the terrain is completely shifted and corporations will have to adapt and are adapting they have to. So I want to try and pin this conversation down to a few more specifics you know you talk about Rebecca how, you know, companies realize there's a need for the social compact change in some respects to be more open to say regulation.  Yes, I want to know from each of you what you think actual real constructive change would look like right so I want to start with you Rebecca what, what kind of changes, do you think, you know, the CEOs or the business leaders you taught to are actually becoming more amenable to like what do you think that, you know, is it going to change what they lobby for or against is it going to change the way they treat workers and some in some significant way. What do you expect. I think we'll see much more interest in high road employment models. That is where we treat people with dignity and respect pay them a decent wage, give them some control over their work high degrees of job security. There's a lot more interest in so called shared value business models that is how do we continue make to make money but address some of the social and economic and environmental problems I think we'll see that accelerate. I hope we'll see more collective action among business people, whether it's regionally or at the industry level, because a lot of these kinds of problems are easier to address if business comes together. So, if we together decide in Minneapolis, or we together decide to address the problem of horrible labor regulations in Bangladesh. I will see, I hope, I hope, I hope we'll see the conversation change so that the big business peak associations the Chamber of Commerce, the business roundtable, the ICC talk much more about businesses role as a partner in the broader system, than about shareholder value shareholder value shareholder value. I mean, returning adequate returns to investors is important got to keep the company going, but the point of the business should be I think generally acknowledged to be playing a role in the larger system and hands in very concrete tangible way.  You're talking about an even broader group like the global business community. I mean, we're both talking about the global community but you know what when you say that there's a recognition that the system isn't working and that there needs to be what kind of specific concrete things do you think that they, you know, we're talking about new kind of global business governments or governance organizations or what what what do you imagine in your mind's eye. So there's what what is normatively desirable and then there's what's probable and possible right so in terms of what's normatively desirable is a fundamental rethinking of global governance where global business plays as, you know, Rebecca was starting to create a much more fundamental role in creating new forms of public private partnerships that read does very concretely refashion the the the sort of social contract. Now, look, even, I guess, I think one thing just to add though, Jordan, is that corporations. We're going to within the business sector within industry, we're going to see the rise and decline of different sectors within that different corporations. So there's going to be quite a shakeout. Overall, my prediction is in fact that the corporate sector is going to be much weaker relative to COVID to post COVID. And in fact, we're going to have a new wave of small medium sized business entrepreneurship innovation so forth and so on. And that's really going to drive the global economy going forward. That's, and that's going to fundamentally change the power balance. In terms of the private sector so that's just a prediction that I'm making right now. That's really interesting. I actually want to, I want to push you a little bit on that because a lot of people right now if you talk to like, you know, kind of policy won't types right in Washington are worried about the exact opposite that right now we're seeing is a brush fire. We're going to wipe out small entrepreneurs and small businesses and startups, and only leave the big sequoias, right, like the big the fortune 500 kind of companies standing.  Let me make sure I'm saying in some sectors, you're going to get more concentration and more power so you're going to get, you know, the Amazons of the world will continue to grow and the Huawei's and so forth they will, they are the winners right in this in this COVID post COVID world right but other sectors airlines travel, you know, we can go on down you know. And entertainment is going to really change so there's a lot of sectors where companies that were historic household names air, you know, are not going to be there are not going to be the powerhouses that they were. Now, within that then yes, small and medium sized businesses are hurting, not only the United States, but all over the world, but you're going to in my view we're going to see a really fancy hope. I believe very positive and transformative new generation of small and mediums new startups. I, you know, I'm a big fan of entrepreneurship and I think that entrepreneurship and innovation, we're already decided to see it. I'm a believer in human ingenuity. And I think that the stressors and strains of COVID are only going to, you know, sort of accelerate this and the technologies that we've been talking about are going to empower that. The question is, is government going to come to the party and really do what they need to do as good partners. And so when we look at these stimulus packages around the world, the sad part in my view is, we don't have enough in terms of really focusing on new business generation. We don't have enough in terms of upskilling and reskilling of people that have lost employment or need to get employment. And we don't have enough of a transition to a green economy. And green infrastructure, a green new deal. Those three fundamental things that governments need to take the leadership on, that's not happening. That's where business needs to push and say, this is what these stimulus packages need to have. You're worried that the governments are wasting a good crisis. Absolutely. Absolutely. This is an opportunity for a fundamental transformation. And we're losing this opportunity. Speaking of opportunities, I want to remind everyone to send in questions if you have them. Please email them over if you've got questions for either of our guests. That would be, you know, we want to hear them in a few minutes. Once they're emailed over to me, I will, I'll start asking them. I should really check my email right now to see if any have come in. I should. Oh, questions for webinar. Actually, they already started coming in. So I'm behind schedule here. I'm a very professional host. Let me tell you this. This is what it's like listening to me on a podcast. If anyone here is wondering. So, yeah, let me, let me, let me look. Okay, here's, here's, okay, here's one from Lucas Myers. What are examples? Some of you, I think this is probably for you, but we'll see. What are examples of inevitable change that COVID-19 has radically accelerated? What, what, what are the things that were already happening that is just definitely are going to come at us faster now? I think I'm going to go two or three. One is, look, the move away from physical infrastructure in terms of corporations to, you know, sort of remote working and learning and virtual teams. We're never going back to a world, you know, you already see companies, right? I'm sure Rebecca, you have talked into them like I'm talking to them and saying they're saying we're not, we're reducing our future budgets in terms of new physical infrastructure plants, certainly office buildings and things like that. That's a thing of the past. We can do that. Why would we even have people come back when we can work so efficiently this way, reduce costs and stuff like that. So that I think it's never coming back again. I actually have a, I have a question about that specifically, which is, what about the fact that people are going crazy right now, like working from home? Sort of like the next open office thing where like everyone decides to go to like all digital and everyone's like, I hate this. Like, are people in businesses looking at our kind of work arrangements right now and saying, oh, yes, this is the future? I find that a little bit bleak, I have to say. I think Sanjeev is putting the case a little too strongly. I think there are some firms that are saying maybe we don't need as much office space as we had, but I think one of the other things that's happening is we're becoming very aware that there are some things you can't do remotely. Yeah. And, and that that's an important part of the puzzle. I mean, I take where you're going Dean, but I don't think we're going to stop building office buildings completely anytime soon. I really don't. Now you heard it here. We're going to have a respectful disagreement where I'm going to say in five, we're going to come back in a year or three years of five years, and I'm going to put some money down on the fact that we're going to have a massive open office, even more than we already have. And, you know, actual investments in new office space is going to decline dramatically and co-working and shared are going to go way up. I do want to get out of the house. Jordan's going back to your question, but they're not going to go to their offices for their companies. They're going to go to co-working spaces. So I see that industry actually going up very strongly. And I'm not saying you. So this is, this is the thing they're going to redirect their employees to these co-working spaces, you know, and so that industry I'd put, I'd invest in those companies and for those, I feel like you need to put some skin in the game right now and like, I only have still commercial real estate. You can try and short like and just like that'll really mark your market. All right, so that is one. So that's, we have some disagreement on the extent, but a little, at least we're all a little bit more open to the idea of telework. Are there other, are there other big trends that either. Well, let me have Rebecca go first. I have a couple of, but I'll let you put one, we can go back and forth and do a little tag. Rebecca, what's another one that you say coming. A massive investment in Biomed. I sit on the board of Amgen and I spent 10 years of my life studying pharmaceuticals. But I think the last 20 years have been all about IT and digitization. And absolutely that continues to be incredibly important. I completely agree that's going to transform things. But I think this is really the age of Biomed and it's kind of, it's a sputnik moment for Biomed. We're going to see lots of children go into biology. We're going to see lots more biological engineering, a lot more tracking. I think it's very striking privacy preferences are really shifting. So I think we'll see much more biometric tracking, much more physical track. I think we, oh no, we, you're back. Okay, good. Yeah, for a second we thought, I thought we lost you there again. I was nervous. That's interesting that we especially, you know, if, if we do actually at any point manage to get a test and trace regime up and running in the US, you would expect people to eventually get more comfortable with the idea of tracking. You know, like they are in, in much of East Asia, for instance, it's less of a, I guess, less of a cultural issue there and it might change here as well. So I could, I could definitely see the contours of how that would happen. What, what, what's another, what's another trend that we can, I can put money on. You go ahead, you do one more, Rebecca, then I'll jump in. Okay, Rebecca, one more for me. One more for sure. Yeah, for sure. For sure, for sure. So I'm going to go out on a limb. I'm going to say I think that big finance is going to be even more focused on climate change than it was before. Really, there was a gathering movement to suggest that climate change was potentially a catastrophic risk to the financial system. I think the people who control a huge proportion of the world's invested assets had come to the reluctant conclusion that. And I think what the pandemic has done is remind us that disasters can really happen. So I've been talking to CEOs who said, I used to manage my supply chain for cost and efficiency, going forward, I'm going to have to manage for risk. Interesting. So I think we're certainly going to see a much more focus on risk is the most obvious one. But I expect big finance not to back off on pushing on climate but to in fact increase and speed up and indeed everyone to think about their businesses from as much a risk perspective. As a drive a good cost to the lowest common denominator. That's part of the declobalization that Sanjeev talked about, but I think it's broader than that willing to pay to avoid certain kinds of risks.  Larry flink Jesus, Larry thing, like, you know, kind of sustainability pusher sustainability is that kind of you are you saying that's sort of going to be more serious. That's exactly where I'm. That's exactly where I'm going I mean the technical term for Larry rocks customers the people who are pushing him. Yeah, are universal owners. People like Hiromizuna, who was run the Japanese government pension fund, 1% of all the world's equities. For him he can't diversify away from the risk of climate change, or indeed the risk of social social unrest. So he sees it or so it is his fiduciary duty to push this. And he's one of the people was pushing Larry so absolutely that's where I'm gesturing. I used to be really skeptical about the impact of those sorts of corporate sustainability initiatives and what you know, or groups like black rock we're doing, but recently, actually, some Republicans in Congress have started to get worried about it and it started talking about the idea of financial managers discriminating against oil fossil fuel companies. And so that's what that gave me a sense once, once the GOP is freaking out it actually gave me a sense maybe there's something to this that there might actually be a serious, a serious issue to consider here. Sorry, and so you're going for one more, one more, one more kind of guaranteed trend that's heading that's coming at us. Okay, so I'm going to give you two or three number one. So we used to think, depending on how you look at the data, China's already the world's largest economy purchasing power parity. You know, let's say that it's not with COVID. The prediction is that in the next two years, China will be the world's largest economy. Yeah, and with that, there will be the, you know, associated flexing of power, and depending on particularly the US election. You know, the potential for, as we know, even exact further exacerbated China US relations and what that would the cascading effect of that. And on the on the Chinese side, even a more aggressive attempt to shape the international order. And that with no norm. I'm not making a judgment that that's good or bad. I'm just, that's kind of just a, I think that that's almost a guarantee that we're headed that way. If the US election is a big unknown there.  Are there going to be future waves? Are we ever going to get had a good test thing? Are we going to get a therapy? Are we going to get a vaccine? Well, that, but independent of that China's continued rise and preeminence then in the global in terms of global the global economy. Absolutely. The interesting countervailing force in my view is that you're going to have a diversification away from China in terms of global supply chain. It's not easy to do. It's way more complicated that US, you know, folks are talking about government. Oh, we're just going to bring it all back. Well, you know, if you can't snap your fingers and bring it right. You're not going to bring the whole global supply chain back from China. Nonetheless, there will be continued pulling out of an attempt of diversifying away from China as the sort of the engine and the core of global supply chains. And so that actually is very interesting because I do agree with Rebecca on everything she said about finance being more aggressive on the climate change front global finance and companies more generally and the supply chain. So it'll be very interesting to see what that can be a virtuous, the moving away from China in terms of those supply chains and therefore risk management being, you know, that you were talking about Rebecca being better in terms of social environmental factors being integrated to this diversified global supply chain. So there's two, but it's all revolves on China. And I think we just how critical that is, you know, that dynamic is going to be in the next, you know, for the foreseeable future but certainly in the next two to five years. How do you balance, I mean, in a world where China is becoming even more central and more powerful and brushing up against us interests even more and there'll probably be more sort of new Cold War talk and bluster. How do you, how, if that's if that's the environment we're heading to, right, like more kind of great nation clashing. How, how do you build the necessary global institutions and cooperation we're going to need to prevent another crisis like this from happening. Well, Rebecca, if I could just jump in because I think it's your argument I complete in this argument I make it I think we agree global business actually has to be a force for new global governance institution let's take AI. Right. We need desperately global governance around emerging technologies. We produce a white paper with the World Economic Forum and global governance of emerging technologies. We are so far from being able to regulate in an effective way to maximize the benefits and minimize the costs of all these cascading technologies particularly AI global business and particularly going back to global tech companies that are going to benefit are benefiting from COVID and getting even stronger. They have to play a phenomenally important role. Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, all of these companies, Huawei, all of them. So that's going to, I think they have to play a leadership role global leadership role. Let me just jump on that, which is by saying, and I know this is not a guarantee of world peace, but we really need to globalize in order to deal with the big challenges that threaten the stability of the world's economy, not just AI, although governance of AI is absolutely critical, but also forgive me climate change I'm a broken record.  But at some level, we're going to be much more worried about future pandemics than we were. We're going to watch that we're going to be worried about the economy we know that trade is good for business. So I think there's at least a business case or if you prefer a strong alignment of interest. So I hope we could move to something that looks less like the Cold War, and more like a kind of mutually careful regard. You don't trust each other, but you absolutely understand you need to work together I know some marriages like that right so we know that that's possible. Trust you're describing a marriage the way Reagan described USSR. Well but if I could continue on the family theme here Jordan, I wanted to just bring in something else which is you know I have three children, a 20 year old 14 year old and a five and a half year old now six year old stepdaughter. Now, before COVID right, Rebecca we were already talking about the war for talent, and also how Gen Y Gen Z, when the old Gen Y Gen X Gen Y Gen Z were really putting fundamental pressures on business and society and government. The interesting question you know talking to my kids and obviously you know, you know for them this is their fun, you know, if you're talking about teenagers this is their first fundamental global crisis right now they're too young during the global financial economic crisis. We already know that they're more environmentally conscious they're more socially conscious they know so forth and but they also don't they're not big government fans they're not big company fans. And so this in my view, I would welcome Rebecca thoughts and others, but it seems to me that that's only accelerate going back to accelerating trends that those young people are even less trustful of all these big institutions are even more focused on these new kind of post industrial values. And so, as the question is how active they become, and what way they become active. And that I don't feel like that's a crystal ball. It's hard, you know, it's hard to know if that you know, if they jump into the US elections, will this is this a motivating thing for them to jump into the US elections. I don't know, but could they possible on the on the private sector type side, where do they want to work in the future, or do they want to this goes back to my point about more small I mean, I think they're going to just go entrepreneurial. They don't want to be part of those big companies they want to do their own thing it's just going to further that, you know, Silicon Valley generation kind of thing. I don't know, those are just speculations, but I do think that this whole demographic transformation is something we have you know, going back to my global perspective, the average age of an African is 18 years old, right, 18 years old. And so we're talking a totally different demo demographics when you're talking about the content of South. I have a final question that I want to ask each of you, as we kind of hit for hitting hitting our timeline but you're both educators you're, you know, you're both at business schools. Is there one thing that this crisis is going to change how or tell me, I guess, one thing that this is going to change that you teach, right, or is there like something that you teach students now that's going to change because of this crisis. Rebecca, you first is there anything that's going to change in your lessons that you want it you're going to be imparting differently to students in the future. I'm going to talk much more about risk. Yeah, and the impact of these large risks on business. Yeah, and I'm going to talk much more about government. Yeah, and why the knee jerk reaction which is we have nothing to do with government we don't trust government it never works. Why that's wrong. So I would expect going forward to significantly increase the weight on just some basic ideas. Why free government makes free societies the history of, you know, a little bit on the history of democracy. And that's that's not material we would have covered in depth before. Interesting. And, you know, I was at the HBS for a long time. And I think we missed each other. I left away before you came. I'm sorry that I'm not there. Send my great regards to Debra Spar. I miss everybody. They're fantastic. I'm such a big fan. Look, for us, we really charted it really, you know, Thunderbirds always been kind of a Maverick global business school as I'm sure Rebecca will confirm it. Part of the reason I got attracted to it. Entrepreneurial. You know, it just, you know, it was the first to really I think Rebecca would confirm this to really do international business as a kind of core way of looking at the world. And really what we've done since I've come is to take the very best of our past and really embrace the future. And what I mean by that is we use we have a masters of global management. We're not even doing an MBA as we used to do a masters of international management and our magical diamond is global management, business skills, really understanding global affairs, international economics, international affairs, cultural languages, making sure every one of our students speaks a second language is deeply ingrained in cross cultural communications and negotiations, and then a big embracing of the 21st century and there we connect two things. One is new technologies, the fourth industrial industry, 4.0, whatever you want to call it. And the second is really a new commitment to sustainable and equitable prosperity and climate change and equity, all the things that, you know, was been talking about. So that's everything we're doing in our programs soup to nuts from our women at the bottom of the pyramid entrepreneurship programs, all the way to our executive programs. Everything that we're focusing on and COVID has only made it clear that we have to do even more of this. More, more, more good globalization. Can I have just a couple of sentences Jordan. Yeah, sure. With all due respect Dean, I think you cheated. You know, if I get to tell you what we're going to accelerate. I was moved into the first year course on leadership and governance and ethics this year, specifically to teach more about what how should government think how should business think about the social contract. What does it mean to think of yourself embedded in this wider world what does business leadership mean today. We have completely redone our first year course in response to these kinds of pressures. Are you redoing any are you redoing any courses. Are you are you doing any courses. We actually fundamentally transformed our whole curriculum. Two years ago when I came in every single piece of it is towards this area and so we're just like just deepening what I know is happening and you know we looked. Like I said I'm a huge fan of HBS and so many great colleagues. I've learned so much and continued to all of us business schools management schools leadership schools where this is the way we must go I I'm sure you agree. Rebecca, it's our social contract it's our social obligation to make sure that we do to be fair everyone is moving. Everyone can see this absolutely central we equip our MBAs for this new world. And on that note, this has been a great conversation. Thank you, Rebecca, Sanjeev. Thank you, Rebecca. Thank you, Jordan. Thank you, Sanjeev is a pleasure Jordan. Thank you very much. And thank you to everyone for joining us today. There are going to be more future tense social distancing socials to come every day and Thursday so on that note goodbye and thank you.