Welcome to the Rich TV Live podcast. I'm your host Richard D'Souza, and today we're going to talk about what is happening in the markets, in the world of finance. Huge day today. CPI, which is our key inflation numbers, came in hot. Previous number was 3.2% for inflation. The forecast was 3.4%. You can see here CPI where it's red, see the three red ones. CPI Y-Y year over year. Here's the big number, 3.5%. It came in hotter than expected. The forecast was 3.4%. The previous was 3.2%. This is very hawkish for the market because it means that inflation is starting to go back up. And instead of cutting rates, they might have to add rates if the inflation keeps going up. This is not good news. And the market is giving back gains. We've been at all-time highs for Bitcoin. We've been at all-time highs for gold. We've been at all-time highs for lots of assets. And the stock market has been at all-time highs. Add around all-time highs. That's going to change. Why? Because inflation running hot is going to scare people. It's very scary for people that are investing in the markets, creates a lot of volatility, creates uncertainty. And the question is what is the Fed going to do about it? So we're going to keep our eyes on that. We're also going to look at the overall markets. It's very important to look at the overall markets to understand what's really going on. And here it was. I kind of felt this yesterday. I've been talking to you guys about the fact that I don't want to buy anything because I was waiting for this number. And look, Dow Jones down 1.3%. S&P 500 down 1.2%. Nasdaq down 1.16%. Everybody's giving back previous gains. Why? Because the inflation number, gold even down, even though the gold is trading at all-time highs, 2357, they're down slightly, even though gold is a hedge against inflation. And obviously, gold is going up as inflation is also going up. And Bitcoin is also a hedge against inflation. And we'll take a look at Bitcoin as well. So overall big red day in the market, oil is still green, but red for gold, Nasdaq, S&P 500 and the Dow Jones, the VIX is in the green as we're seeing volatility and the markets in the red. All right. So let's take a look at the stock market. Very important to take a look at the stock market to see what is happening. So we're going to look at that right now. All right. So one of the biggest movers today is MRIN. MRIN currently up 70 to 70 cents and up 144%, one of the biggest movers of the day. You can see it's the biggest mover of the day. And because of that, and there isn't as many movers today because the market's red, there's this huge gap up and then everybody pours into this one stop. Why? Because there's nothing else. So all the day traders that make a living day trading, they're all buying the stock. It doesn't mean it's a good stock. Probably going to go down tomorrow. That's been the trend in this very choppy market. But MRIN is one of the biggest movers today up 146%. Here's ADIL, huge gap up and then big, big candle. So all the day traders jumped into this too. But look at what happened after it went up. It's come all the way back down. So you got to be careful. And remember, Rich TV Live is strictly for information and education purposes where investors just like you guys and we can win in the market and we can lose in the market. So I like to be patient and look for my trades. Here's WNW up 25%. Had a big move pre-market and then went up even more and then sold off. So those are three of the stocks that I'm watching today that are on the move. Dogecoin also in the green today despite all the red. Coinbase also in the green despite all the red out there. And NVIDIA in the green despite all the red today. Micro strategies in the green despite all the red today and meta formerly Facebook in the green despite all the red today. GBTC, Bitcoin ETF in the green. IBIT, Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF that I'm interested in in the green today and Bitcoin in the green despite all the red Bitcoin is holding green because Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation because people know that if you are worried about inflation, you need to look for an alternative. And that alternative in this market has been gold and Bitcoin and both have done very well. Obviously, Bitcoin has gone up much more. ARM AI IPO that is in the red today down slightly hood also in the red down slightly Ethereum in the green now after being in the red is now in the green. Another hedge against inflation is Ethereum and we're watching for the Ethereum ETF to come out. Riot, a Bitcoin miner in the red today. Amazon after hitting 52 week highs in the red today. Netflix in the red today. TCNNF cannabis play that I really like slightly red today. Google after all time highs yesterday pulling back in the red today down 1% gold. This is very gold. This is one of the best in class gold stocks you could buy. They are slightly red today down 1%. Apple continues to sell off. They are now down 1% today as well. You can see Apple there in a decent buy zone in my opinion. Mara down 2%. Another Bitcoin miner having a red day today and here it is the Nasdaq 100 down 1.2% today. The S&P 500 down 1.3% today. Solana having a lot of congestion issues on their network. They're down slightly today. The Dow Jones down 1.4% today. Microsoft down 1.4% today. So lots of red today but nothing huge to really worry about. ETHE one that I'm really looking at. The Ethereum soon to be ETF in my opinion. Grayscale, Ethereum trust. They are slightly green today with Ethereum being in the green. Tesla pulling back today after having a big day yesterday. They're pulling back and giving back a lot of those gains today. They're down 3% today. So I wanted to wait for today to see the market. Now that I've seen a red day today which is what I anticipated. Especially if we were going to have a higher inflation than anticipated with the CPI number. I wanted to make sure that we were going to make good decisions and not risk anything. So now that I know that that was a bad number. Now I want to wait to see when's the next green day. Could be tomorrow or we could see the rest of the week be red. Reddits. I've been looking at Reddit and this is the lowest I think I've ever seen Reddit. So that tells me two things. This is a good buying opportunity or this could continue to go lower. And after a big drop of 6% is very difficult to tell. But after an initial pump, all this has been doing is going down. So I'm not in a rush to buy it. That's for sure.  But at the same time, I just feel like this could become a nice day trading tool. And there's a very good chance that we can see this bounce back at least a $50. Cause it's done it quite a few times. So I'm looking at it very closely for a trade. But I'm not sold on it cause it's brand new. We don't really know. All right. So we're going to watch all the key movers right now. MRIN up 144%. And the CPI has had a big effect on the market today. We are seeing a lot of red everywhere in the market today. You can see the CPI numbers right here. I have it highlighted. So the CPI numbers, let's see, share this tab, CPI numbers, 3.5%. The forecast is 3.4%. Previously it was 3.2%. This is the problem right here. We are now going back up with our inflation. So after all the rate cuts and the inflation started to go lower, now inflation has started to go back up and they've been talking about, sorry, rate hikes over the last year. Now they've been talking about rate cuts. Well, are they going to do rate cuts with inflation going back up? That is the million dollar question. And you can see the volatility here in the occurrences, how the Euro-USD is moving 132. Like these are massive moves. Euro going downwards to the USD. So the USD looking strong here in this market, especially over the Canadian dollar, a whole full percent. So very bullish for the US dollar has been this inflation news. All right, so MRIN, the biggest mover of the day, up 144% that we are watching. All right, let's just see if there's anything else moving that needs to be getting our attention. Okay, so ADIL, they're at $1.88 up 65%. 78 million shares in volume. Wow. Big volume day for them. W and W up 24%. They're having a big volume day. I always like to look at the volume. Volume is 53 million. The average volume is 1.89 million. Today their volume is 53 million. So big volume today for W and W. All right, let's see if I can find some other stuff. See if we can find some other stuff worth looking at. IFBD. Info bird. Info bird is up 36% right now. Info bird. So this is one that is trending here. All right, so this is Info bird. You can see the MACD did give the buy signal and it has followed that buy signal up 36% Info bird having a big day up 36%. And this is the one year chart on Info bird. So you can see it's been much higher. Three month chart shows that it's also been much higher. And the one month chart shows that it has been to about this region. So this has been a good sell zone. And then it's come back down to like that $3 mark in the last 30 days. So as a trader always like, I always like to know the highs and the lows of the zone that you're trading in and try to really understand where it's going to go next. That's really what trading is about for me. Understanding what you're investing in because you could be investing in hype. You could be investing in real fundamentals. You could be investing in a company that's moving on news. You could be investing in a company that has an acquisition happening. There could be insiders buying or selling the stock. There's a lot of different reasons why stocks or cryptos go up. You need to understand what that reason is and you have to have a strategy. You need to know before you even buy a stock or crypto what are you going to do before you buy that stock? What is your plan? Do you plan on selling it quickly? Are you not holding it for a day, a week, a month, a year? What is your plan? You need to know what your plan is and then stick to it. That's typically what I like to do. Now, things do change in the market and sometimes that changes your plans but it's very important when you're making investments that you have a plan and you stick to it. So if I was to buy micro strategies, okay, if I'm going to buy it at 1466, what's my exit strategy? Am I selling at 1700, 1800, 2000? Am I selling within 24 hours, a week, a month? What is your plan? Know what your plan is before you even go into the stock. I think it really helps because then when it comes time to sell, you don't have any issue selling because you're just following your plan. You eliminate any emotion because when you're investing, you can't have emotion. Here's Coinbase. I just sold my Coinbase at $253. Made a really good trade. I held that trade for a few months and it paid off very, very well. So it was more of like a swing trade but I held that for 60 to 90 days and it yielded really large returns. So that was a very good trade but now it's like, okay, I got in at 176, sold at 253. Great trade. Now what? Right? Now we're back to 247. What are we going to do now? So I've been waiting for a dip. Nothing real big has happened as far as big dips which shows how strong Coinbase really is but if I see any big dips, I might get in again. Here's NVIDIA. I just saw price target today of $1,000 for NVIDIA. So they were just at $1,000 and they're back down to these lower levels and now they're bouncing off $830 back to $865. So there could be a trade here for NVIDIA from here to $1,000. I can definitely see that. Is it worth it for me? Is there enough juice there to make it worth it for me? I don't know. 10% would be $86. So I would need this to move to $940 range, $50 range to make 10%. That doesn't really entice me. So as much as NVIDIA has done really well over the last, especially the last year to two years the question is where does it go from here? So it's literally been going up faster than Bitcoin. Here's ETHG. They just gave the buy signal here at $12. They've been clearly correct. It's been as high as $48, which is amazing. Kind of gives us a little idea of where it can go and $35 multiple times or $25. This is one that I'm really interested in buying. So I'm watching it really closely, like really closely and going to watch and see how inflation and the CPI affect ETHG. But I really like ETHG. And this is a way to buy Ethereum but buy a stock. I mean, it's like buying Ethereum, but it's a stock. So I really like ETHG. GBTC, Bitcoin, ETF, really like these guys as well. You can see how it's gone straight up. So if you've bought this ETF, you've done extremely well.  Same with IBIT. This is the BlackRock ETF. They've been going straight up as well. Lots of buying coming in. Meta. Look at Meta. What a beast. Unbelievable move by Meta. But where do we go from here? It's already high, right? Ethereum is looking like it's gaining steam. Bitcoin is looking like it's gaining steam. This is a hedge against inflation. And clearly investors are running to Bitcoin during high inflation. People are running to Bitcoin and that has been bullish for Bitcoin and Bitcoin continues to look strong. Now it's 69,400 full disclosure. I do own Bitcoin. It's done extremely well for me and I'm sure anyone that is holding, congratulations if you have. We've been talking about Bitcoin on social media since 2017 when the price of Bitcoin was only, at that point, the price of Bitcoin was $1,000. Today it's at $69,000. So congratulations if you got in for the win and you're up 68 times your money since we've been talking about Bitcoin and investing in Bitcoin and teaching people about Bitcoin and orange-pilling people about Bitcoin literally all over the world ever since. And I'm really proud of that and we're going to continue to do that. And look at that Bitcoin now it's 69,500. So Bitcoin is really making a move here. On this high inflation data Bitcoin is really making a move. Let's not look at the five-minute chart. Let's look at the one hour chart. And this is how Bitcoin is responding to inflation. It's ripping and we're soon going to be at 70,000 or at 69,700 and just ripping like Bitcoin is just ripping. Responding very well to this high inflation number which is not good news for the market. Stock market's red giving back gains but Bitcoin is going higher. That once again just tells you the power of Bitcoin. Here's the inflation data. The CPI came in at 3.5%. The forecast was 3.4% and previously it was 3.2%. So that's not good for the market. That's why the market is red today. You can see here the market is fully red. Giving back gains as we were trading at all time highs in the Dow Jones, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Market had to give back some gains. Needed a reason for a pullback. Now we have a reason. Inflation is back and heating up again. It's not good. It's not a good thing because inflation is heating up again. I can promise you guys that. Look at this. Bitcoin at 69,800 and really moving. Look at this. The MACD gave us the buy signal right here and they've been correct. It's shooting. It's 69,900 right now. Bitcoin looking very strong. Very, very bullish price action right now for Bitcoin. Let's see if we can break 70,000. 70,000 has been a very large area of resistance where there's been a lot of selling. Which makes sense because that's really the highest Bitcoin's ever been. Between 70,000 and 73,000 is the highest it's ever been in its history during this bull market. The highest previously was 69,000. We're now trading higher than the previous high of the last bull run. So we're at a really high level. So it makes a lot of sense that people are selling. However, when that selling gets exhausted and those sellers move out of the way we're going in the one direction and that's going to be higher and that's when you're going to want to hold Bitcoin. Or that's when in my opinion you want to be selling Bitcoin is that when it goes higher for the next new discovery of all-time highs which are coming very soon because Bitcoin is having very soon. I'm going to show you that. Bitcoin is about to shock the world because it's having is in eight days. The Bitcoin having is in eight days. Here it is. The Bitcoin having is literally we have a countdown here. Eight days, 21 hours, 55 minutes and seven seconds away is the Bitcoin having. Check this out. I literally have a countdown and I am watching this very closely because this is always historically the biggest catalyst for Bitcoin. So if you are into Bitcoin or you're learning about Bitcoin or you want to learn about Bitcoin you need to understand the Bitcoin having and how it's historically been a massive catalyst for Bitcoin and how it could be another massive catalyst for Bitcoin again and how the price could absolutely explode. I would say over the next six to 18 months we're going to see Bitcoin go much higher and it's because of this Bitcoin having which is going to reduce the block reward from 6.25 Bitcoin per block to 3.125 Bitcoin per block. So that is the reason why Bitcoin is so financially rewarding because they reduce the amount of Bitcoin that can be mined every four years and that makes Bitcoin very scarce and that makes the supply shrink the demand is growing and thus the price of Bitcoin going higher and why we are trading in these all-time high regions of 69,000 and approaching 70,000 and we've been as high as 73,000 and every time we get over 70,000 it sells off because anyone who's been buying Bitcoin when they're selling at 70,000, 71,000, 72,000, 73,000 they are selling at a profit because Bitcoin's never really traded over 70,000 until now so anybody that's selling is selling at a profit pretty much and that's one of the reasons why there is a lot of selling at 70,000 it just makes a lot of sense however eventually all of those sellers are going to be exhausted those Bitcoin are going to change hands and the price is going to go higher this is why I believe this is this is the time to be invested and to be focused on Bitcoin Bitcoin having Bitcoin mining stocks Bitcoin related stocks and really take advantage of this trend which is in our favor right now if you're a Bitcoin investor like I am and remember Rich TV Live is strictly for information and education purposes please do your due diligence do your research before you invest in anything we talk about or discuss here on our show past performance is not always an indication of future results and we can't guarantee what's going to happen in these markets these markets are very volatile they go up and down they're very risky right now there's a lot of people winning and some people losing so you have to have a very good strategy in this market and look at this Coinbase just back up to 250, look at that Coinbase looking very resilient following Bitcoin up now up 3% my strategy is a 4% they're following Bitcoin up my strategy is back up to 1500 so these are Bitcoin related stocks and because Bitcoin is doing well right now and in the green you're starting to see that Bitcoin related stocks are following so is Ethereum also following as you can see so IBIT also following GBTC also following ETHG so to me that's a cheat code that's a cheat code right so you can follow the money and you can see as Bitcoin goes up these Bitcoin related ETFs and Bitcoin related stocks will go up so this is a great way to take advantage and hedge on the moves that Bitcoin and Ethereum are making in the market by buying these ETFs by buying stocks and the ones that I'm looking at the most right now are IBIT, ETHG so this is the Bitcoin BlackRock ETF ETHG which is the Ethereum grayscale soon to be in my opinion ETF and then Coinbase great ways to trade Bitcoin in my opinion also micro strategies I know it's high but this is one of the largest holders of Bitcoin so is GBTC these guys are also one of the largest holders of Bitcoin in the world these are great trades in my opinion these are great trades and if Bitcoin is going up they will go up if Bitcoin goes down they will go down so you really got to watch Bitcoin if you want to watch those trade ideas alright so the biggest mover of the day MRIN up 151% ADIL up 65% IFB D up 33% and then WNW up 26% those are the movers that I'm watching today after that DOGE up 3% micro strategies up 3% Coinbase up 2% NVIDIA up 1% these are the stocks that I'm watching today ETHG now gone red after going green it's bouncing back and forth GBTC also in the green IBIT in the green meta looking strong again today and then Ethereum looking strong Amazon in the green as well Netflix slightly red Solana slightly red ARM the AI IPO I really like slightly red Google after hitting all time highs yesterday in the red today people are taking profits HOD slightly red Apple also slightly red but just very very little red for those ones and the NASDAQ it was really red I'm going to come back a little bit they are still red today S&P 500 in the red Riot a Bitcoin miner in the red today and Microsoft in the red gold this is Barrett gold also has a dividend there in the red slightly Dow Jones in the red Mara a Bitcoin miner in the red Tesla I think this could be a good dip buy for Tesla I'm thinking about buying Tesla but I really want to see the earnings first before I buy so I'm going to wait and then red it maybe a good dip buy for them they're trading in a really low zone you can see our side thinks that they're also in a buy zone and red it trading around all time lows but will they go lower I mean that's the thing as an investor right now will it go lower or is it just down because the market is down alright thank you guys for watching I'm your host of the most your boy Richard Rich TV if you're not winning you're probably not watching bring in the winners CEO interviews, breaking news, trending topics and we bring it to you first trying to break down the markets once again MRIN the biggest mover of the day as you can see that's been their chart up ADIL up 64% big mover IFBD a big mover up 33% and then WNW up 26% on a day where bad day in the market where inflation it goes higher this is a good for the market the market is red but Bitcoin is rallied and proven to be a hedge against inflation and a place where people can put their money because it's green on a red day we'll see if this continues we'll keep you updated if there's any crazy things that happen we'll let you know first I'm your boy Rich from Rich TV on really not a great day in the market because inflation is running hot CPI number came in at 3.5 higher than what was forecasted as you can see here and the forecast is 3.4% came in at 3.5 previously it was 3.2 that's not a good sign means inflation is going up and that means that prices of everything could continue to go higher and the Fed might even have to look at raising rates again so we'll see what this means and keep you guys updated I'm your boy Rich from Rich TV and I'm out Peace


Let's kick it off. It's great pleasure to be here. I'm Edward Loos from the Financial Times US columnist for the FT here in Washington, but I was based in India several years back and Maintain an abiding interest in it. So thank you very much to Ashley for asking me to moderate this Before I very briefly introduce each of the panelists because they're all well known to you Let me just give a little framing for this discussion, which is about the the strategic importance of the US India trade relationship Now, of course, this is this isn't just a week of the Pope and Xi Jinping. It's a week of the Indians And we shouldn't forget that this is a very very critically important Bilateral relationship. It's also as you've heard. I think this morning the first week of the the India US Strategic and commercial dialogue named follows on from the strategic and economic dialogue that the US and China have so it's a Really important week, and of course we have the Twitterer in chief the Indian superstar Narendra Modi in the US again addressing an enormous gathering This time the other side of the country in San Jose of 20,000 people the kinds of Crowds that you can't the foreign leaders Can't get at home, but he commands quite naturally amongst NRIs here in India and at Wembley Stadium next month I believe in London So the expectation around Modi is extraordinary But I think the delivery and this is so often a conversation within the gap between expectations and Implementation is large and it's 18 months almost into his administration beginning to get rather worryingly large not much is happening So we have huge trade talks huge trade aspirations, and I think we're going to hear three different but very compelling cases for the importance of the trade relationship between the US and India, but Just as a backdrop to that Let me mention a story that really caught my eye last week in the times of India And the government of Uttar Pradesh the largest state in India one of the poorest Advertised 368 jobs in the state government low-level bureaucratic jobs pay-ons teaboys and that the qualifications specified were Five years of schooling and the ability to ride a bike They got 2.3 million applications Including hundreds of thousands of people with undergraduate degrees 25,000 people with postgraduate degrees and 255 people with doctoral Degrees so I want to keep this perspective in mind that the Modi promise his central promise is Not to have bilateral investment treaties with the US. It's to create jobs for Indians skilled and unskilled Now of course trade investment technology transfer is a huge motor of job creation But until he can start creating jobs All these other questions that are off huge strategic importance that we're about to hear of will pale into Insignificance, so I think that's really worth and I'd ask the panelists to keep that as a backdrop So that that's enough from me. I should mention each of the panelists are going to talk for seven minutes or they're about I'm a little bit of a fascist of timekeeping So they were talking about India like you to think of this stage as being sort of sovereign Swiss territory I will keep I will keep time we'll start with Praveen who's a scholar and a distinguished professor here at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced international studies and a trade expert. We'll go on to Fred who needs really no introduction The emeritus this that Eminon screeds this that International Institute now Peterson of economics Ashley also needs no introduction I first got to know Ashley when he was working with Bob Blackwell and Bush's ambassador in Delhi when I was based in There, you know one and read his wonderful book on India's nuclear India's nuclear program So With without more from me, let's kick off with Praveen and you have several minutes. Don't don't feel pressured great Well, thank you. Thanks very much add for that introduction. Thank you Ashley for inviting My participation in this panel I was asked to provide a brief history of Indian trade policy in five minutes or less And I'll try and do that and maybe make a point or two of my own so Indian trade policy having sort of started its post-independence years with a relatively liberal trade regime a series of balance of payment shocks and other economic shocks compelled Indian authorities to progressively restrict imports to ever-greater degree And they did so by imposing tariffs quotas tariffs and quotas import licenses and so on so forth until through the 1950s and 1960s until the time when you had mid 1970s where India Was a kind of a near total autarky Imports as a fraction of GDP had fallen to something as low as 3% There was a domestic reaction to that Domestic industrialists felt the pinch of not being able to import capital intermediate goods for example There was some relaxation in terms of external reserves because of the higher earnings of Workers Indian workers in the Gulf that were being remitted back to India as well and that opened the Possibility for India to start liberalizing kind of in the mid to late 1970s And they did so through the 1980s mostly by allowing a kind of a more liberal Licensing regime although tariffs remained very very high Time you got to the late 1980s you had sort of many years of large fiscal spending large domestic borrowing that combined with a kind of a BOP shock in the early 1990 In early 1990 or mid 1990s led to mid 1990. I should say led to the 1991 crisis Which the Indian government impressively used at that time impressively used as a kind of an opportunity To start a process of domestic and external reform which continues until today So much has actually been achieved in this process if you look in 1990 And say what were the what were the tariff rates at that time on some of the trade policy? The highest tariff rate was in excess of three hundred percent three hundred thirty five three hundred fifty percent The average tariff rate was over a hundred percent. You've gone from that level of protection to sort of a reduction starting in 1991 to about 35 percent average tariff by the year 2000 to about 10 percent now Which is which is a reasonable figure much more reasonable than what it used to be for sure With some exceptions allow for automobiles and other sectors agriculture and so forth in Services as well There's been tremendous liberalization especially of sectors that were very heavily restricted in the past banking telecom Insurance infrastructure and so forth. So that's the kind of the broad arc of Indians of trade policy evolution Have it's changed over time from a very highly restricted state about 20 years ago 25 years ago to where it is today As we think about kind of future evolution of Indian economic policy, I'd like to make two points one Is just in terms of its trade policy trade liberalization strategy Any country has multiple contexts in which it could liberalize trade it could do so unilaterally By sort of liberalizing by itself It could do so in multilateral contexts negotiations of the WTO and so forth It could do so in bilateral settings free trade agreements that it might negotiate with any number of trade partners What's very important to note especially in the Indian context is that most Indian liberalization Has actually been unilateral liberalization There's very little India has a set of bilateral trade agreements But very little has been actually achieved in terms of genuine liberalization through these bilateral agreements and in my judgment a Small fraction of actual liberalization could be seen as sort of quid pro quo outcome of multilateral negotiations as well So unilateral liberalization has actually been has been key for India It's very important because unilateral reforms in my view reflect to a far greater extent the domestic political economy And that's Indian reforms in my view again Rust on a stronger foundation of domestic support then would be agreements that the Indian government signs in some foreign capital and brings back home For approval that that was my first point about the kind of the relevancy Historically if unilateral liberalization in the Indian context second point has to do with Indian trade policy and Indian growth As we look at the evolution of the Indian economy and its manufacturing sector in particular manufacturing production manufacturing exports it is an important fact that we should note that The fraction Manufacturing fraction of kind of overall GDP Has stayed constant through this whole period Okay, so as you've gone from the 1990s until now with all of this liberalization all of these reforms Presumably all of these efficiency enhancing reforms the fraction of GDP that is out to manufacturing has stayed fixed There's a number of reasons for that This is dramatically different as well from what we've seen in other countries like China But there's a number of reasons for those well-known reasons in the Indian context labor regulations difficulties land acquisition for industrial expansion Infrastructure issues and so forth The point I'd like to make is that as much as these are kind of well appreciated as kind of broad factors Quantitatively these have had huge significance as well. So if you look for example at the apparel sector in India 85% which is an important sector for India 85% of Indian firms are less employ less than 10 workers It's very very small if you said what's the industrial structure in China in the same industry similar labor force? It's just 2% of Chinese firms that are less than 10 workers in size and the reasons it is this way in India is obvious Because once you get beyond 10 workers in size Indian labor regulations start to kick in So my point here is that as far as kind of Indian economic growth manufacturing growth and so forth My view is that it's domestic Sort of policy and domestic constraints that are really the binding constraints at this point Trade agreements and trade expansion through the form of trade agreements would be great to have But the key constraints as I see them now are more domestic in nature rather than kind of in the international International side and let me let me stop there and I hope I kept to myself in minutes You did better Chance to talk thanks for that probably never a good introduction to where we are Fred. I could use his extra minutes I Want to start with Ed's own key first point which was about jobs and Suggest that there's an intimate relationship between the jobs question and the trade question The Prime Minister set a goal of growing at 8 to 10 percent And he's absolutely right India must grow at that rate to create the number of jobs needed to reduce poverty as needed And that's going to I think probably require some increase in the share of manufacturing in the economy a Target he's also set But the fact is that no country repeat no country Has ever grown at 8% or more on a sustained basis without substantially expanding its international trade without increasing its globalization looking to expand that exports to create a number of those jobs and Thereby provide a crucial element at the margin for the whole growth strategy So I think India in contemplating how to achieve its goals and all the CEO say potentials huge It can do it, but how to do it is the question and it's got to include this increased globalization dimension Oh, I think my predecessor was absolutely right. That's going to require primarily domestic reforms Most of which the Prime Minister has proposed but not yet seen through India faces in my view two huge problems in achieving the trade share of this Economic policy goal first India is losing competitiveness if you look at every relevant metric India has actually lost trade competitiveness the last three or four years after doing well a decade ago It has stagnated and that's a huge problem secondly, it's trade problems going to get worse because the US and Practically every other major trading partner is going to increasingly discriminate against India When the trans specific partnership comes into place India is losing out to Vietnam to Malaysia in terms of its textile exports to the US to Japan to Everybody else and even when the transatlantic agreement comes into place Between the US and Europe those are India's two biggest markets and it's going to take some trade diversion losses there in my new study We quantify that and India is going to lose at least 50 billion dollars a year of exports at least a percent of GDP from trade diversion to these new agreements by contrast If India gets itself engaged in those agreements Hold on to your hat. It could expand its exports by over five hundred billion dollars per year and be the biggest beneficiary Now what am I talking about? When trans specific partnerships starts up in a year or two as it will The interesting question is going to be what next because remember already half a dozen other Asian countries want to get in TPP China is raising it with the US officials every week So it's quite realistic to imagine that the initial TPP becomes much bigger over the next five to ten years Encompasses most of APEC may be called a free trade area the Asia Pacific But if India remains outside that framework is truly going to be left behind The trade minister said earlier this morning. We're not going to be left behind. We've got our set. Well, good luck minister RCEP probably ain't going to happen if so it's going to be very weak like all of India's other trade agreements and India is going to take most if not all of those losses I possibly So India really faces a fundamental policy choice The two panels before us this morning have been very cogent very interesting very important But they've all talked about very micro matters bankruptcy courts are important commercial codes are important Customs facilitation is important, but they're not going to get you eight to ten percent growth And that requires going to the broad scope of the trade policy question. Indeed. It's probably Getting into the liberalization pressure from those broad trade policy initiatives that will finally catalyze the internal Changes that are needed in India to make its reforms happen How did China get 10% growth a year? Well an important part of it was it joined the WTO? use the international rules to force the provincial party chiefs to do domestic reforms and that was Consciously the Zhu Rongji Zhang Jiumin strategy out in Mexico stop having Financial crises every decade joined NAFTA and the GAD at the time and began to open its economy to the world Why is Abe desperately trying to end Japan's two lost decades by joining the TPP to get External pressure guy out through they call it in order to promote domestic reform Jim Mcnerney chaired the last panel said kind of jokingly Can you guys blame us foreigners for helping to make the domestic changes? Well, that's not such a joke Because country after country has in fact used the external pressure to galvanize Catalyze promote politically enable the domestic reforms to happen And I think India is in fact one of the very few countries Which has not pursued that strategy which I dubbed a long time ago competitive liberalization They need it if they don't do it They're not going to get the kind of economic outcome They want they're in fact going to take losses and slide backwards the US can be very helpful in this Remember if India joins the next stage of the TPP Part of that expanded TPP then becomes a free trade agreement between the United States and India Remember that the first TPP is in large part a free trade agreement between the United States and Japan That makes up two-thirds of the economic impact of the TPP But doing it through regional devices is a very clever political economy device to Minimize domestic opposition to what otherwise on a purely bilateral basis much be might be a much harder sell But in economic terms it does mean opening up including for the US Now when President Obama went to New Delhi in January He did a partial reversal of US policy the US has always opposed getting India into APEC and therefore a stepping stone To the TPP on the grounds that India would block everything. Is that a negative trade policy? So India is going to have to demonstrate that his trade policy has changed It's going to do the Modi reforms. It's going to add a trade dimension It's going to be serious about expanding its role in the world economy in the world trading system Obama said in January, we're we're willing to consider India's interest in we welcome to be precise. We welcome India's interest in joining APEC If India would take the next steps and indicate it was serious and began to take some policy actions Like the CEOs were mentioning before to demonstrate its bonus fee days Then I think the US should Go hand in hand with Prime Minister Modi with his close relationship with President Obama and help propel India into APEC which then would be the stepping stone to the Trans-Pacific Partnership and this kind of new trade world In which India has to enter. I think it's essential for India on economic grounds It's certainly essential on foreign policy grounds to kind of play the role in the world that it has to What made China a great world power was not nuclear weapons It was 10% a year economic growth for 30 years India could be the next economic miracle if It adopts a strategy along these lines Thank you very much, but you're just about with the time Ashley Thank you Ed It's a pleasure to be here with my friends whom I've known for many years in this panel Let me also riff off Ed's opening remarks when he talked about Prime Minister Modi's ambition To grow the economy and in particular to focus on employment the one thing Prime Minister Modi cannot be accused of is being unambitious and if Enlarging employment was all there was to his economic agenda. We could have ended them with friends remarks Prime Minister Modi is trying to do two things simultaneously He's trying to engineer a large-scale domestic transformation of the Indian economy Particularly reaching out to those who are marginalized poor and have not been part of the market process While at the same time, he's trying to build India into a truly globally relevant power And so what I want to spend a few minutes talking about this morning is the fact the Relationship between trade external openness and the rise of India as a major power This is extremely important to the United States the US has made a major bet on India The reason it has done so is not entirely out of altruism, but I would argue quite substantially out of American self-interest There are two geopolitical objectives those of the United States in India, which luckily for all of us Turn out to be utterly complimentary The United States seeks to preserve its global primacy for as long a period as possible India seeks to break out of the confines of the Indian subcontinent and become an Asian great power The US Audently desires that India achieve its objective Because if India does it ends up balancing China in Asia and Preventing in Asia that succumbs to Chinese domination If you can get a robust balance of power system in Asia where Japan China India Russia Become capable countries Each able to look after their own interests vis-a-vis the other the net result is that it prevents Asian challengers from one day rising to the point where they challenge American primacy so from Washington's point of view The idea of strengthening the Indian economy and Enabling to move up the growth path for as long a period of time as possible Makes complete sense. It turns out to be in India's interest It turns out to be in America's interest simultaneously Now there are two ways to do this One is to build the patterns of cooperation in the strategic arena We've started doing this over the last 20 years and made great progress But there is another way to do it and it's a complementary way and that is deepening economic Interdependence between the United States and India that pillar of cooperation has not grown as Rapidly and has not deepened as substantially as one would like to see it happen It's quite clear that if that interdependence were to grow both countries would benefit US competitiveness US growth US markets would be enlarged and Indian economic growth would also Accelerate because of expanded access to US capital technologies and services So the complement complementarity at the economic level is quite clear and obvious the big challenge as Fred pointed out and as Praveen provided historical context is that India's comfort With pursuing more open trade strategies Has still not reached the point where India is willing to take the risks that come From external expansion in order to stimulate domestic growth Now India can persist With the old strategy that perhaps for a while served it well since independence But the risk as Fred I think pointed out quite clearly is that at a time when the global system is Now moving towards new mega regional agreements like TVP and TTIP India loses out not only vis-a-vis the United States, but also with respect to other partners and It ends up in the very awkward situation where although the United States and India Consciously think of themselves as strategic partners They end up pursuing economic policies where they discriminate mainly against each other This would be the strangest kind of strategic partnership if two countries are cooperating actively at the geopolitical level only to discriminate very energetically at each other at the economic level so we have to find a way of breaking out of the skull the sack and Because if you compare the United States and India synoptically the US is still the more open of the two economies The challenges with respect to Indian trade openness will be greater on the Indian side India will have to make some tough decisions with respect to re-equalibrating the degree of asymmetry in openness between our two societies But there are gains for India They will of course be adjustment costs There will be challenges that the Indian government will have to manage with respect to its own domestic politics But as Fred pointed out there are very substantial gains from making such a shift and if the shift is actually to be Institutionalized and successful then India will have to do two things simultaneously first it will have to take trade reform very seriously in ways that it has not done before India has pursued trade reform in the past primarily in order to increase export performance But it has never pushed export performance to the point where it has created flexibility for shifts in its own factors of production at home This is the first task that India faces not simply move to expand export performance or improve export performance But create flexibility within its own domestic markets so that they can be internal reallocation of the factors of production in order to support This improved export performance and the second is that India will have to look very seriously at building safety nets Because to achieve the kinds of gains that Fred is talking about there will be domestic dislocations and in a democratic country domestic dislocations have political costs and so as India moves smartly to integrate itself More generously with the global economy. It will start it will need to build those safety nets to allow people To survive the transformations that are taking place in the economics field Let me just end with one important point If India begins to move along this way The net result is not only economic gains, but deeper political partnership between the United States and India To the degree that the US-India economic relationship deepens The United States begins to have ever greater stakes in India's success And to the degree that the United States has greater stakes in India's success The incentives for the United States to walk the extra mile on issues of high politics where India have has an interest only improves and So you get a wonderful virtuous circle where? greater growth Through trade for both countries ends up strengthening American primacy globally Which is indispensable for improving Indian security within the subcontinent and outside while the same Virtuous circle also ends up increasing Indian power Which is extremely valuable for buttressing American primacy in the global system Let me end in that note, and I hope I've kept your time sketch. You have you will have thank you And each in your different ways have made I think you know something close to being an unanswerable case in the abstract For Indian reform and openness and close-up economic cooperation between the US and India what I'd like to focus on is The likelihood of this happening and the obstacles in its way And I'd like to start just on the Indian side with Praveen and Ashley both of you have been to India recently To Daly and talk to people in the Modi government. What's what's what's going wrong there? Why is reform stalled? Why is export pessimism creeping back into the Indian psyche? What what's going wrong in each of you? Could answer that Praveen sure. I Think even maybe six months ago. There was a great sense of Optimism as to what this government wanted to achieve and what it could achieve given The political constraints and I think as we've kind of as time is passing As the summer has gone by recent visit to Daly had a chance to Speak with a number of people there senior government officials and so forth There's a certain lack of clarity. I perceive Is it the case so questions have started to be asked is it the case that the government Seeks transformation with the same level of enthusiasm as we thought that it did does it actually truly want it Is it the case that it's blocked by politics or maybe it's a case that it does never really wanted it to the same extent as we thought that it did so these are these are questions that are starting to be asked I'm not quite sure what the answer is But there's certainly a shift in the mood It's very clear that The government has faced a number of political obstacles was it just bad strategy? Was it something else could things have been done differently and pushing through the land acquisition act and pushing through various other things? The GST Harmonized stock system within within India. It's not completely clear, but I think It's at least one thing is clear is that if one still expects to see Sort of rapid Transformation rapid implementation of all of these policy policy initiatives I think those hopes are probably misplaced at this stage So actually I mean you have with your experience of the one two three agreement and helping initiate it You have direct knowledge of what it takes to get the Indian system to jump through very difficult hoops seemingly improbable ones And and arrive in a place a US India nuclear agreement that few people would have thought possible What what do you think it's going to take? I know you've been to Delhi a lot recently as well What do you think it's going to take given the situation politically there? to Follow some of the recommendations each of you so so forcefully made the case for You know the great thing about transformations in India is that they are intimately linked to crisis absent crises Transformations rarely take place because democratic politics puts a premium on policy conservatism If the current trends in India really begin to reach crisis proportions I think the imperatives for jump-starting reform will only increase The other dimension of crisis is political crisis if the Prime Minister begins to sense that The continued pessimism about India's prospects Begins to have a corrosive impact on his own Political interests that opens another door with respect to a new round of reform But let me go back to the question that you started asking at I think there are three elements that have come together Somewhat unhelpfully to account for the current pessimism that Praveen described First is the global economy has slowed down and particularly for the Indian export sector That is the export performance is so intimately linked to the robustness of global economic performance The second is domestic politics in India unfortunately have gone back to a very corrosive cycle Where political opposition is mounting for the sake of opposition Rather than opposition based on differences genuine differences about principle and third Because these two have come together sort of unhelpfully The natural tendency of policy conservatism has only been reinforced and so the question is does this sort of I don't want to use about crisis, but does this pessimism Become something that is long-drawn, but still manageable if you get that kind of a trend line I think the incentives for reform remain weak If the pessimism deepens in ways that there are serious political consequences for the government then the incentives for Remedial reform actually increase Aren't you over I'll get to you in one second just as a follow-up I mean over stating the rhetoric of passive pessimism because India as you know this year 2015 It's the first year ever. It's faster growth Than China and that's probably gonna remain the case for the next couple of years looking at the Chinese picture Now, of course, I know that all three of you are making the case that India needs to take the steps to ensure It's the case for the next 30 years not two or three years But are you ever staging with the degree of pessimism? There's a lot of there's a lot of India shining talk coming out of Delhi as well What well the yeah, so the one statistic that many of you probably heard is the number of kind of workers that now need to be the kind of Youth that are entering the labor force that need to be employed And that number is about one million workers a month So about 10 to 1 million workers a year and so the growth rates might be a little higher than we might have expected But they're not anywhere close to what we need in order to absorb These workers the manner that we would like for them to be dropped into the workforce And they're not close to will not achieve for Prime Minister Modi the goals that he has set for himself Yes, if I could just add as my colleagues know There are alternative views of what? politics best promote economic reform One concept is what actually said it's crisis when you're forced to do it but an alternative thesis is that when times are better and You're not under such a gun. You can take structural reforms requiring for example Adjustment and dislocation because you're in a more favorable economic environment If you could build on a seven percent growth rate and push it to eight to ten Then you might not have to do too much by way of dedicated Adjustment programs because eight to ten percent growth lifts a lot of boats and avoids most of the kind of dislocation you're talking about so it does I think get back to leadership An adroit political leader can build on his reasonable success so far but note that we have to do better for the reasons we're all saying and segway into a more ambitious program in a sense having a Positive outlook better than China fastest growing big economy in the world Only demographic dividend among all the big countries as you look out five ten twenty years In a way, that's a propitious Political economy to carry out the kind of reforms that are needed here So if you're convinced you need to do that I think you can certainly spin things that way and there's a lot of a lot of merit and a lot of empirical evidence That that in fact is conducive to you before Fred. Let me stick with you for a second Let's look at it from here from the Washington perspective now the president managed to get through fast track for a trade promotion authority And now that of course isn't just for TPP or t-tape it's for whatever he choose exactly Let's just suggest how to hypothesize he chooses Because the Modi government responds well to his half overture on joining a pack And launches a an FTA bilateral trade deal between India and the US Will the political traffic bear a little bearing in mind, you know, what what what the sentiment is on China? And what the unions think about trade deals with countries that have substantially lower The country that's a very interesting question and I address it explicitly in my new study, which their copies outside for all of you to pick up In the TPA debate the big trade policy debate we just had there was a lot of discussion of China and A lot of the members of Congress Expressed great doubts about any future US trade agreements with China certainly about China joining TPP Etc. There was zero discussion of India Now on the one hand I've checked this out with the people in the hell who were monitoring the debate minute by minute There was my own observation on the one hand you say well that means nobody's paying attention India nobody cares on the other hand At least there were no negatives And there was nothing in there that said don't do India and there's good reason for that In terms of even the concerns of our labor unions India and China are very different as private pointed out The share of the Indian economy which is in manufacturing is very very small It is not like China. This would not be NAFTA on steroids as an FTA with China might be viewed because there's very little likely competition in the manufacturing sector low skilled jobs from India compared with China Secondly all the anxiety you may remember a decade ago Outsourcing all the services jobs. We're going to go to India. We weren't going to be out Alan blind or others saying All of our services the one thing we can still do services all gonna go to India all that of course has been proven to be false It has not happened indeed. There's been some reshoring as it's called. So the I'm not saying it would not be concerned. There would be concerns and it would require a major sales job Largely on Ashley's foreign policy ground remember That every I'm going to repeat this every major US trade policy initiative in the post-war period Has been motivated not by economics and trade but by foreign policy Okay, so let's let's stay and therefore if you buy Ashley's arguments, which I do you've got a powerful case And maybe even I talked about all of APEC may be going to a next stage of TPP putting India ahead of China in the queue and Making friends so that's why from an India standpoint. They ought to move as quickly as possible to get in the TPP Start qualifying of course traditionally been qualified to get into this trade nexus and maybe steal a march on China That was actually going to be stolen my next question because I was going to ask Any of you but Ashley in particular What Would that Mean as a as an offer how tempting would that be in terms of India and Modi's worldview in particular To see TPP purely from it in India's membership of it purely from a geopolitical perspective and probably also please feel of getting in ahead of China I Think the question that be leverage in other words. Well, there are two parts to that question, right? I mean first the United States has to Find a way of reconciling It's strategic policy in Asia which includes India with its economic policies towards India The honest truth right now is that the two are disconnected There is a strategic policy towards India which has focused very much in elevating India's rise in power But that message somehow has not been coordinated with other parts of the US government which deal with trade issues Because we think of trade issues with India primarily in terms of just simply IPR and market access So there has to be a rethinking in how we frame the question these of India from Modi's point of view There is certainly increasing interest in membership in these Pan Asian institutions and Modi's interest in trying to get closure on a US roadmap for a peck membership is very good evidence But the challenge that Modi is going to have is to bring something More to the table then simply a preference for membership That is it has to be accompanied by a willingness to at least undertake some minimal policy changes With respect to India's trade where would this be I mean any of you answer for it included? Well, I would this be a bit would be a good place to start. Yeah This is the crucial point Ashley's absolutely right about this disconnect between the economic and security dimensions of US policy toward India and US does have to rethink that and put it in the broader context But having said that is actually said at the end India's got a decisive role in that itself. I went around I briefed most of our top government officials on this new study I just put out and one of them very high level won't name but in the White House said Well, you know Fred India still says no to everything Susan I still thinks that yeah, and and therefore and therefore I tried India is gonna have to make some significant changes if it were willing to Step up accelerate and move the bilateral investment treaty. That would be a good one Take some unilateral actions on some of these long-standing irritants like intellectual property local content Retroactive tax treatment. There are a whole bunch of things So I go ahead the province said at the start about the importance of unilateral changes I think India is going to have to take some unilateral measures If it goes down this reform path to demonstrate that it's serious incredible I can't just talk about it because there's a lot of skepticism about more talk if it does a few things However, I would say then the US should meet it halfway and should then go hand in hand Into a pack into WTO agreements various things, but particularly down this Geopolitical path. I'm glad you mentioned probably into the actual point because bigger pretty yeah, oh, I mean, I'll just say this I'm a little You know given the opportunity to join the US and the TPP ahead of China and so forth how much political support Will there be in India for such a move? I'm not sure that as a country that we've gone through that kind of Discussion introspection as to what it is that we actually want how much globalization do we want on what terms? Do we want it? What are we willing to give up in order for this access and so forth a lot of the liberalization that's taken place starting the 1990s has been you know bits and pieces fits and starts and it's just happened right But if you're if it's kind of a one-shot deal. Here's an agreement. These are all the big changes that are gonna have to take place Is there the kind of domestic support that you would need for something like that? I'm not so sure this is kind of related to Ashley's point of it I mean is it gonna take a crisis to achieve that perhaps is it gonna take something else perhaps But I but I don't see it as kind of Immediately attractive in the sense that that maybe one might help in order to get kind of an agreement of that sort through And let me go because this goes right to the heart of the political economy of the issue Providence said rightly in his early remarks India has done a lot of unilateral liberalization So it's China lots of people but what the international record shows is That you can do a lot of unilateral liberalization Early in your liberalization patterns when there's still a lot of water in the tariff and Restrictions you have don't buy you can you can go quite a ways But when you get down to the last 10 15 percent or so the experiences of even the Big trade reformers like Chile like Mexico like Korea show that when you get down to that last 10 to 15 percent Which is really the important part Then you can't do it unilaterally the opposition is too strong. So then you mobilize the export interests to overcome the import competing interests By negotiated liberalization opening markets and demonstrating this as benefit of the country I gave some numbers that I hope stunned you India could gain 500 billion dollars a year of exports If it participated in this kind of broader Pan-Asian trade agreement, that's a huge benefit But to mobilize the domestic support for that those are the exporters the people who gain the import Computers of course gain as well because they get into supply chains. They reduce their cost of inputs and all that So all that's good and they should support it too, but it's mainly mobilizing the export interest and I think in the Political economy if you're going to go down his road That's what you have to do and that's why these agreements which have this Tremendous potential payoff are much better than WTO much better than anything else that you might that you might considerably envisage I'll just say that faced with the sort of the US TPP template What are what are the changes that India is kind of willing to undertake on intellectual property protection on the role of state on? enterprises in the economy on labor unions labor standards environmental standards and so forth I'm a little skeptical that they would be sort of across the board support of the sort that would be necessary to sign on to Something like the TPP which has all of these issues built in now if Exceptions are going to be made and exceptions can be made that be a different discussion But looking at it from from where things appear to be with respect to TPP right now That's a lot for India to be signing on to and whether it's good or bad I'm a little skeptical as to whether it will actually happen Let me just two sentences when you actually see TPP It's not going to be quite as fearsome as it's been portrayed in some quarters Because there's been a lot of watering down and it's not 21st century standards on every issue and all that So it's not going to be quite so fearsome having said that sure if India comes in if India and China come in If the rest of APEC comes in Indonesia, we got some other big countries We're talking about sure there's going to have to be another negotiation and there's going to have to be some Accommodation if you want a deal which certainly on the geopolitical grounds you really want I'm not going to hug any more of the questioning because we've got I guess 12 13 minutes left and Several hands already up. Do we have a mic? Are we doing we don't we have a mic system as one of the back other is one of the back So since there are there are no men or women on the panel there's a lady lady there with a hand up about Hi, I'm Julio Katakarn. I'm from Kerala in the south of India. I also work at the Carnegie Endowment Here so I should preface my question by saying that it is my own So This panel and the panel and the previous panel have spoken about increasing investments in India as a way for the US to engage strategically and economically with the country and I'm just wondering whether we as academics and Perhaps also as industrialists in the United States should be concerned about whether these investments are reaching the grassroots level workers in India and More importantly, whether these investments are safe Having worked in the Bhopal gas tragedy having worked with the victims of the Bhopal gas tragedy This is something that's always been on my mind This is you know, we've had tragic instances ten years back But increasingly we also see such events in Bangladesh a couple of years back where a factory collapsed. So do you think? Questions such as safety and equitability of these investments should factor into the discussions we had On perhaps in events like the ones we had today. Yes, of course And that's why you want high standards governing your investment relationship And that's the objective of a bio investment treaty or a trade agreement It's to set high standards to deal with exactly that kind of problem And I would add one more Thought to what Fred said you also need and effective state We had a lot of discussion the previous panel by the pernicious influence of bureaucracy and you know That's almost in the category of self-evident truths But the fact of the matter is India's bureaucracy is actually woefully small relative to the tasks that the state sets for itself and So even if you get the standards that Fred would like to see if you don't have a regulatory mechanism That is robust enough to be able to play its role. The standards will be honored only in the breach Right, so even as India begins to increase its markets and open its markets The idea of having an institutional capacity To regulate the terms in which market entry and market participation takes Place I think is extremely important and this has to go hand-in-hand Sure for what it's what let me also say that I wouldn't want to automatically attach building collapses just to globalization buildings Collapse Which have nothing to do with globalization as well This is just a weakness of the state regulations building standards and so on so forth And so yes all of that ideally should be fixed Next question the gentleman here in the front. Yeah Hi, my name is Kunal Rawal. I am a student at George Washington University. This is for mr. Fred and Ashley It has two component my question one is economic and second is political from economic point of view all the examples That's how you have given China Mexico Chile. They all were Export late economies and as we see that the global economy is slowing down the US Middle-class is shrinking So how does that same model can apply to India? that is one first question and Especially when you you have your own middle-class your own consumer base that you can tend to and Politically is not not everyone in this country if we follow the discourse From political angle here in this country not everyone is convinced that all this Treaties have helped American middle-class. So what you are trying to sell to India is not everyone even in US is not buying it So can you please? answer to one step well just on economics With all due respect your premises wrong China was not an export-led economy Until it joined the WTO and began to push its trade reforms about 15 to 20 years ago China started from a state of autarky when it is reformed China is an even bigger continental Potentially self-contained economy than India is it didn't have to go down the export route It chose to do it and by choosing to do it It got 10% growth instead of 7 or 8% growth. That was a choice Mexico Before it reform was one of the most closed economies in the world the share of trade in Mexico's economy was less than that The United States if you can believe it before Mexico went into NAFTA join finally the GATT became the WTO No, these are relatively closed economies Which chose to internationalize to get the extra? Growth impetus that I'm talking about in it as I point out of my study the Analogy between India today and China 20 years ago Mexico 20 25 years ago are in fact very apt and Give kind of a precedent kind of a roadmap for what you can do Slowing down how at this point, how does that same model can apply to India? We shouldn't India be looking for some other model, which is just catering to its own middle class I would see it the other way if the world economy is slowing down. It's more important to increase your market share India look at the data. I've got a chart in my book in my little study India's exports have been incredibly responsive to global economic growth until about five years ago They they grew by three or four times three or four times the rate of global growth up until a few years ago The last five years they flatline their responsiveness to global growth is the client It's not just that the global growth declines their responsiveness They got to get that back up and then they can offset the slower growth in terms of their own payoff The gentleman in that blue turban at the back Thanks very much. Very very interesting remarks My question actually relates to what has just been said, you know, the global growth may be slowing down You know global trade is not going to be expanding anywhere near at the race as it has over the last You know two decades or three decades and Fred your point then you know We need to increase India needs to then increase its share Which means that it has to improve its competitiveness now to improve the competitiveness you need to undertake all these reforms Which you know people have talked about now the point was made that you know You might need to make site payments might need to you know Initially, we know that when these reforms are undertaken whether it's in labor market or in product markets There are costs involved now given India's fiscal position The probability or the likelihood that you could actually provide enough of a safety net Small so doesn't that then sort of create a little bit of a dilemma that you know You can't provide the safety net you can't then you don't then have the reforms and you don't have the reforms And you don't have the competitiveness and then the trade growth. I don't think so look Remember the objective of the exercise is to get your growth up to 8 to 10 percent if you get growth at that level a lot of your fiscal problem disappears Economic growth as you know is the great stimulus to budget revenue increases and solution to budget problems, so in fact one reason one reason to get your growth up is to help deal with your fiscal problem And you use some tiny it's tiny some tiny fraction of the growth payoff from those reforms To take care of the losers. I mean, that's the standard side payment formula in again political economy world wide That's been done in country after country. We don't do it much in the United States Europeans have done it beautifully Probably overdone it, but most countries view it that way at an economic term That makes total sense. We've got time for a couple a couple more questions of the gentleman in the glasses there With the red tie, yeah, Dave Ramos. So me with Africa agribusiness magazine now it's increasingly clear that food security underpins national security and also how political stability is Driven by food security recently in India. There's a huge run-up in onion prices and We just cause panic in the government and governments have fallen in the past So India has a very high cost of food for the average person compared to the US 53% So unless India Improves its competitiveness in the nutritional intake of its population It cannot have sustained economic growth So the question is and also India being a tropical country can competitively produce the lowest cost food and pretty much any commodity So what is the economic incentive which needs to be put in place? To dramatically increase agricultural productivity and reduce cost of food. Thank you Well, there was a lot there were a lot of things you said some that I agree with some that I might disagree with a bit but Overall, I mean this this will have to be a longer discussion. I'm afraid I just on agricultural productivity There's just a whole range of factors I I can quickly say one thing which is that India's reticence at Doha on agricultural policy is Understood at least in part by the kind of issues that you've raised about food security about what a change in agricultural prices Is going to do to farmers relative to consumers and so forth. And so it's a complicated Space and I fear we won't be able to do justice to the question Presumably Friday you would if you didn't sequencing which sectors are dealt with by trade deals agriculture would be lost Well, it would have long phase-in periods The way to deal with adjustment problems of that type and also what Ashley mentioned applies in agriculture as well Is long phase-in periods some of the US tree agreements like with Australia have 20 year phase-in periods particularly in the agricultural sector so as to cushion the Pressure that is felt and give plenty of time. The Korea is a fascinating case Korea's has done Free trade agreements with every country in the world for the last 10 years to get out of the middle-income tract. It's a brilliant strategy When they did their first agreement with Chile It was turned down twice by their National Assembly on the grounds that it was killing agriculture Korean government realized that if it was going to be serious about trade It had to do a big adjustment to get rid of its inefficient agriculture. They did a 200 billion dollar Readjustment program phase in over 10 years and it enabled them then to go on to a to a sensible strategy Remember, I can't he's just saying sound like a broken record. Remember if the problem in India is high-cost food high-cost food One way to do it is improve productivity Another way to do it is to import some of that food That's a lot cheaper and again China which used to will go for self-sufficiency and food has decided to do that Mexico has decided to do it many countries have decided trade is a part of the solution Not a part of the problem. We have time for one final question the late the lady there So I'm sorry to Gaki from the National Babies and Research I have one question a little bit different but in terms of the political geopolitical balancing for of India as There's more increase of Asian regionalism in trade agreements How do you think the possibility of a trade agreement that excludes United States income would mean to the US and India economic relationship? Right Is that a question about our step? Well at a purely symbolic and political level obviously it's undesirable For countries to be creating agreements, which do not have the United States. That's an American perspective It's a parochial perspective, but it's the truth having said that however if the agreements that are being negotiated are relatively low quality agreements Then the fact that the US is excluded has very modest material consequences for our interests If anything, I would hope that these that these agreements that are being negotiated would actually elevate their quality in competition with other agreements of the US as part of if Our step turns out to be the truly low hanging fruit agreement, which it seems to be Converging towards then I would think the fact that the US is out of that really should not cause us Very much of a sleep sleepless night There's way too much here for me to even begin to attempt to summarize so let me just say you all three Excellently presented a lot of questions and arguments and food for thought and thank you so much for doing that I


To ensure that it doesn't go on is what we do. Get down there, get the police into a training environment, then we go and do an operation. Take these kids in and we hand them over to social services, thereby ensuring that these kids, at least for these particular kids that we get, they will have a future perhaps. At least this intervention at this point is an opportunity for that future to happen or at least a better future than what's facing them if they continue to work in the field. So it's never about numbers, it's about rising above numbers, it's about rising above challenges and it's about giving these kids a chance, it's about getting in there and giving these kids a chance.


There was a call for bold results driven action on day two of the whizzes forum Ladies and gentlemen This is our moment It's the moment that the entire whizzes community has been waiting for Let's invest in an open free and secure digital future for all. Thank you very much So all the speakers here at the opening ceremony have been really focused on one key message Using the whizzes action lines to build back and drive and accelerate the UN's sustainable development goals At a high-level meeting of UN agency leaders there was acknowledgment so much has already been achieved But there are still too many people Especially in the global south being left behind The digital divide is there the knowledge divide is there it is through these initiatives By different parties not only UNESCO, but other UN agencies and other relevant stakeholders that together Hopefully we can little by little start closing this digital and knowledge divides To highlight some of the major efforts being taken Special prizes were handed out for different groundbreaking initiatives like this health monitoring one Which could reduce strokes by 20 percent. It's super simple for a user The user just needs to put his finger on the camera of a smartphone and by this we are detecting cardiac arrhythmias With a goal to prevent strokes Another prize was awarded for safer cybersecurity from the UAE Encouraging younger people to be more aware of the dangers of sharing information online Do stay tuned in tomorrow for more highlights from this year's whizzes forum


Why does Toby Fox love annoying dogs so much? Because of a toaster. In his second column for Famitsu Magazine, the creator of Undertale and Delta Rune answers this exact question, as he talks about his inspiration both as a storyteller and a musician. This second article isn't quite as surreal as his fantasy about dating a hot dog girl from our previous video, but it's interesting to get a little more insight into this seminal indie game designers rather odd-minded. In short, Toby Fox claims that his primary food source is Japanese role-playing games, which is why his bones are weak. What follows is a loose translation of Toby's article, originally written in English, translated into Japanese for publication in Famitsu, and then translated back into English by us, with some help from native Japanese speakers and Google Translate. Apologies in advance for anywhere Toby's original points may have become muddled. Ever since I was barely able to read and write, Toby says, I have loved Japanese RPGs. While other American kids eat peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, I devoured JRPGs like Mother 2 and Final Fantasy 6 as a source of nutrition. Thanks to that, my bones and muscles became weaker and weaker, and my brain was awakened by cool magic animations. As a child, I used to rely on JRPGs as a source of protein, but there was one problem. Most Japanese RPGs were never released in America. Toby goes on to note that at the time, the American RPG market wasn't as big as it is now. Many Super Famicom games such as Live Alive, Dragon Quest 4, 5 and 6 were never released overseas. But, says Toby, there is one RPG developed by Squaresoft for the Super Nintendo that wasn't released in Japan. It was developed by Squaresoft Inc., an American branch of Squaresoft based in Redmond, Washington. Squaresoft Inc. mainly published Japanese games for the American market, for example the Overseas version of Breath of Fire for the Super Famicom, developed by Capcom. Toby notes that for some reason, on the packaging, Ryu is drawn to look like a barbarian. He wonders if maybe Squaresoft Inc. thought American children wouldn't buy the game unless the main character looked like Arnold Schwarzenegger. Only once did Squaresoft Inc. create their own role-playing game. They were tasked with creating a game based on Secret of Mana. This game is Secret of Evermore. Toby goes on to explain how, while the game features a similar combat system to the Secret of Mana games, the setting is a wholly new invention. The main character is a cheeky American boy who is constantly quoting dialogue from his favorite B movie and who dresses like Marty McFly from Back to the Future. The plot involves this boy and his dog falling afoul of an experimental machine and being thrown across different periods of history. In his article, Toby praises two elements of Secret of Evermore beyond all others. Firstly, the game has a dog. The dog is the only companion character in the game, but it changes its appearance as you progress through different parts of the world map. Sometimes a wolf, sometimes a graceful greyhound. Toby describes the inclusion of this canine companion as groundbreaking, as there's only one other game of this era that he can think of that lets you play as a dog. Plus, he says, if you make it to the ending, your dog partner will transform into an invincible toaster. Doesn't that alone make it worth playing? The toaster dog has become one of the most iconic designs from Secret of Evermore, and it's easy to see why the creator of Undertale and Delta Rune would be drawn to this game. When we interviewed Temmie Chang, she noted that she and Toby often swapped pictures of cute Pomerarians in their chats while making Undertale. Apparently, Toby's love of quirky dogs goes back even further than this. Toby says that the best element of the game, though, is the game's atmosphere and soundscape. In the first area of the game, a prehistoric area, you can hear birds and insects and tribal drums. From the game's background sounds alone, you never feel like you're completely safe when you venture outside of the village. Toby points out that some songs from both Undertale and Delta Rune were inspired by the music in Secret of Evermore. Toby notes that the composer of the game was just 19 years old at the time, and that his work was unlike anything else available on the Super Nintendo. Toby points out that this composer, Jeremy Sol, went on to create music for the Elder Scrolls series, most notably Skyrim. We'd like to point out that Jeremy Sol also scored Star Wars Knights of the Old Republic. Our artist Kotor is very insistent that you know that. Toby does note that the game is far from perfect, and lists a few of its flaws and awkward quirks. He doesn't think the story is developed enough, but he does at least recommend playing up until the end of the prehistoric starting area. The moral of the story is that the right person can find something good even in a flawed game. Toby notes that Secret of Evermore isn't perfect, but the game's atmosphere and soundscape, plus its inclusion of a dog character, clearly left a strong impact on him. Even an imperfect duel can have facets of brilliance.


We're going to welcome back to another video for my YouTube channel over here in which I'm going to discuss basically a project I'm working on at the moment for basically automating stuff on the Linux desktop using the very nice xDewtool command line interface and it is a little bit intimidating but certainly what it can achieve is quite powerful and I'm quite excited about so this firstly is Linux 1910 which is not an LTS release it's a rolling release but these utilities at will not be installed I'm not sure if xDewtool is actually in the repositories or sorry if it automatically comes on systems either but in any event they are both definitely in the repos so those two CLIs that I'm using here for this this quick video are at AT and xDewtool and for those that are not familiar with at basically it's a it's like a one-time cron job kind of a setup so basically you know cron jobs if you open up your crontab on your system it has you know jobs that are supposed to run on a recurrent schedule so whether that's you know every second every day every month every year such and such a command but that would occur every single day and AT basically is a once-off event scheduler so you can just schedule one-time event so that's what I'm hoping to do here I have tested the script and it is running relatively nicely but you can also you know and I've set the AT that this command is going to run at a certain time tonight basically so what this does really I'm just going to call up the script in Kater in my VM or in my IDE rather so firstly you know I'm relatively new to batch scripting and by no means an expert at this at all in fact a rookie but I am just kind of playing around and this is a quite a cool project that I think I think demonstrates well the potential for x-do tool what it can do and I'm making this video actually because I saw that the x-do tool tutorials on YouTube while they're excellent and there's a lot more to dive into I couldn't really understand the practical practical points of it so maybe this video will explain that a little bit better so basically this is something that I'm going to be running off my laptop my laptop is like an old Linux laptop that is just connected to a white screen television the first so the first thing I've done in this script is just make sure that the outputs are correct so there's another good tool I recommend in Linux called a render and that's kind of it's a very lightweight display manager so these are my three displays I have in front of me right now the nice thing that you can do is once you have your displays as you want them you can then save the layout and it will give you a it'll give you a by script so I've just called that by script and you can inspect it and you can see it's just kind of a couple of lines calling it's basically just a front end a render is a front end for x render and x render calls you know dvd the dvd output is primary this is its resolution this is its position its rotation is normal and the position actually organizes the so the if I go back to my screen layout here it goes hdmi to dvd dvi and then hdmi one so it's setting hdmi 000 then the dvi comes next it's 1920 pixels across working from left to right and hdmi one is 100 1920 times two from the far left so that 1920 times two and they're all 1920 by 1080 resolution displays so it has the order there as well so that little command that you're calling that by script which is really just one big command basically sets me up so that even this is actually have set this up as a startup script on the laptop this is just so in case it's not running in that configuration and the laptop is has its screen turned on and the reason for this is because you need a bit more fancy commands than I have actually put in to really do xdo to it properly you should ideally you know refer to a window id and to a screen I've just kind of adopted a bit of a quick and dirty approach but this should work if the if the if there's only one screen as my thing is configured go up to the quick things of muting volume and then setting it to 100 percent so this is toggling ALSA mixer firstly unmuting it so if it's muted this will unmute it I think that might actually be should be toggled there's this can be a little bit buggy if it's muted or muted then setting it up to 100 percent so it's I'd basically be setting the volume on the actual TV and not on the OS the OS we delivering it's 100 volume now so I'm watching this show on Netflix called diesel and this basically says you know this Google Chrome is very simple if you're not if you're not doing any variables so there are this I'm not sure if there's even a man page but there is a man page you can tack on incognito to get in incognito motor and in a new window or you can even actually open it in a specific profile but if you just do Google Chrome followed by the URL it'll just basically open this in Chrome so if I just bring this guy back over to my screen here if I just run that it's just opens the diesel in a different window here sorry into the into the chrome I had open so now so far so good but the problem is if we just copy this into a browser this it'll just arrive at this page and that obviously will not start playing now if you haven't started watching a Netflix show yes and you might get lucky like if I click on to Tiger King for example Tiger King is the same thing actually if I click onto this if you haven't if you haven't watched something before I'm just trying to get this to work it might actually start playing but basically you want to go like this and see what see what happens when you get to the show you want to watch now I'm just this is again for the purpose of automating it now how do you get the script to automatically click on this button so I'll just show you what else I've done in my script using xdo tool you basically so I wait five seconds after this opens sleep five that's the number of seconds and that just basically pause the things for five seconds so any kind of banner advertisements or javascript elements can kind of display themselves and because it's all relying on this coordinate here xdo tool move mouse to x and to y this this is in pixels and then click immediately on that part of the screen so I'll show you how I found that we just find the command quickly xdo tool find current mouse position it's not particularly hard to find it's the first stack overflow result for that I'm just going to copy this into my terminal here so it is xdo tool get mouse location minus minus shell tack tack shell so what I did was I basically just move my mouse here and I literally now my mouse I'm going to go nice and centered on the button here I have my right hand off my mouse and my left hand hovering on the enter button I click to enter and you can see what it's come up with here is the x coordinate the y coordinate and the screen and it's also giving me the window idea and as I said if you're doing this property you will that's really the the more elegant way to do it you should certainly also refer to the screen but again because I'm on one one screen on this I'm just doing this kind of a little bit quick and dirty so uh 155 and 47 now one thing to say is you want to check your zoom here so I'm I was zoomed at 100% let me just do this one more time 204 because I move slightly um let's get nice and centered again let's let's let's take these coordinates 131 and 484 and let's just over 131 and 484 131 484 very close to what was in the script um so basically it's going to move for me onto that screen position and then it's going to click so this will take us this far uh then I told it to wait for five more seconds and now I wanted to click on the uh on this guy over here so I repeated the process I this is a full screen button um um and I basically uh this did not work when I just tested it so I'm not expecting a miracle to happen then to work again although we are we are watching schtiesel um the idea was for the mouse to come over here and click on um click on basically the um the button and then to make that into full screen that it did get over the button on my test for some reason I didn't uh click xdo tool um there is another way I'm just thinking on my feet now um that I could basically because f11 will also put this into full screen mode uh so if I could tell it to uh hit uh f11 that would also work so I'm just gonna actually add this into the script and you never know this might be this is my first time trying a simulated keystroke an xdo tool is very powerful it can do both mouse and you can see this is click one is uh is left click I believe click two is a right click click three is a context click um so it can do everything in terms of automating your uh simulating keystrokes and mouse movements and even dragging and dropping stuff so it's very powerful as I said I'm just really scratching the surface of by scripting and this the cli itself but it did work so let me just give a shot let's try to um xdo tool key f11 and then let's end the script so that should be entering f11 and f11 will um make should make it full screen so without any further ado I'm going to move this over here and I'm going to get out of here and I'm going to show you how this works now I've added this to my get to a github project you can follow me on github my username is danielrosiljlm and uh yeah just as I learned I'm just posting these basically now in order for this to work I just need to make sure I'm not in any other chrome windows on my other screen so I've only got one chrome open and let us let us try just navigating of course you need to give it the right executable make your back script executable executable and then as I said I'd be using as now um plus whatever you know 2130 today or april april 12 and then basically saying just run the script at that time one thing I did do in my initial script was I actually added that as well um you know uh basically adding an at command saying to turn off the computer so that's another cool thing you can do is you can have this get the script running from at and then have an at command in the script itself in order to turn off your machine after I don't know two or three episodes what that would be probably uh 200 minutes or whatever uh you can work it out so let's give the script a go there we go so far so good it's open steezel now the mouse in five seconds should move and it's clicked resume perfect now we are watching it and there we go it's either I can't tell if it hit f11 it did hit f11 because the little dialogue windows come up and we now have steezel running in um I'm gonna actually not show too much of this because I'm worried that the copyright uh copyright automated detection stuff on youtube is gonna is going to accuse me of uh of uh trying to trying to cast uh steezel which obviously is not my intention at all so that was successful so that basically that's little script I built uh would be enough to uh you basically you know you can just set that as an at command um leave your laptop open uh at nine o'clock now in terms of what I would like to do with this you know I might want to be um you know perhaps there is if you're emceeing an event and you'd want to put up a video at a certain time and you want everything to run like clockwork uh you could just have the laptop open have it connected to a projector and you know and just so long as the power configuration is not you don't have like you know automatic screen blackout and automatic power off uh that tends to screw up projects like this but so long as you have all those correct um that this would work you know completely you know you could open up a video stream a video uh you might even need to use xdo2 but that was the point to this video and you know close the window or whatever else you want to do uh I could have made the script a lot more elaborate but uh so that was it basically just a little bash script uh putting that put to the tv getting the audio right opening up my series on Netflix waiting for five seconds micing over to the resume button and again make sure you're capturing these coordinates when your screen's a hundred percent and it could change based upon the series you're looking at or the UI of Netflix it might the UI might change and these could be so you might need to recalibrate uh clicking and I could have added might have made um QAing a bit easier if I've added if I'd added a smaller pause here then clicking then another five seconds and then moving over to the full screen button here clicking on clicking on that um and uh I just I added both clicking on the full screen button um and f11 because I wasn't sure that didn't work the first time so the end the f11 worked and I could again say keep that running for a certain amount of time and then finish it so that's it I hope this little tutorials tutorials is a wrong word I keep using it but this little demo of what you can do with xdo tool in the real world because as I said some of the videos will show much more elaborate things where you know they were like creating blank files that kind of wanted to show what you can actually do for you know practical applications of this very cool automation tool for the Linux desktop thank you for watching and any queries do not hesitate to reach out that's my website and there's a contact form there danielrosilrosil with 2ls.co.l and uh have a great day