Watch here From: Manriquez, Pablo Sent: Tuesday, May 17, 2016 1:42 PM To: Comm_D Subject: Fwd: Becerra to Ramos: "Scratch the surface of Donald Trump, and what do you find?" Sent from my iPhone Begin forwarded message: From: "Sarah Lovenheim" > Subject: Becerra to Ramos: "Scratch the surface of Donald Trump, and what do you find?" All, House Democratic Chairman Xavier Becerra, the highest ranking Latino member of Congress and a surrogate for Secretary Hillary Clinton, spoke with Jorge Ramos yesterday about the state of the 2016 presidential race. Please find a clip below, followed by Q&A excerpts, in which they discuss: * Republicans for Donald Trump * Senator Sanders' decision to stay in the race * The Chairman's support for Secretary Clinton * Donald Trump's hateful rhetoric and its impact on voter turnout [Inline image 1] Q&A excerpts -- RAMOS: Let me just begin with the Republicans: Finally Speaker Ryan met with Donald Trump. And of course they don't agree on many things but finally there was a press release in which they both agreed to make sure that Hillary Clinton doesn't become the next president. What do you think of that? BECERRA: First: one - if you scratch below the surface of Donald Trump, what do you find? Congressional Republicans. So it should not surprise people that the congressional leadership is getting on board with Donald Trump. The second thing it tells you is this: Republicans are more concerned about their party politics than they are about their principles. Because for them, to have said all of these negative things about Donald Trump and how they could not associate with Donald Trump -- and now they're saying he's their leader -- it shows you that they are so driven by the politics that they are willing to give up on their principles. RAMOS: Let me ask you about the Democrats. Bernie Sanders campaign manager said in an interview that Democrats have to choose the best candidate to beat Donald Trump and that according to the polls, Sanders would do much better than Hillary Clinton. Does he have a point? BECERRA: He has handled his campaign very, very well. He has animated, excited a lot voters. And I believe that is going to be helpful going into November for our Democrats. I think it is pretty certain, though, that Hilary Clinton is our nominee. I'm working very hard on her behalf to make sure she's our next president. RAMOS: Are you worried about her emails -- that you might get a surprise in the middle of the summer or after the conventions? BECERRA: From everything I've seen here in Congress -- we've had hearings over these things for quite some time -- with all the testimony, I don't see that there's anything there. As the Secretary said, it is good that the FBI is doing a thorough investigation. She has welcomed that. She has testified. My sense is we're going to keep talking about the real issues: making sure Americans are working, making sure they're getting paid better wages. making sure everyone has health care and certainly, making sure that we tackle immigration reform. RAMOS: In the last debate, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders -- they both promised us that they would not deport children -- nor immigrants who don't have a criminal record. Do you think if she becomes President she will be able to keep that promise? BECERRA: I do believe so. Especially if she is able to get a Congress that works with her to pass immigration reform. So this way, she won't have to rely on executive action the way President Obama has had to rely on it because you had a situation where he had to make a system that's broken work the best it could. So I think that if the Secretary becoming President gets us immigration reform quickly, we won't have these situations. Had we passed the Senate immigration bill three years ago, Jorge, we would not be dealing with this crisis at the border with children this way. It's a humanitarian crisis. Many of us have spoken to the immigration. We are asking that the Administration realize that the people from Central America are coming as a result of a crisis. It's a humanitarian crisis and we have to deal with it appropriately. RAMOS: Recently I'm sure you read that story in the New York Times. They suggested that you are on a short list of possible vice presidential candidates. How does that work? Has someone from the campaign talked to you about it? BECERRA: I wish I could tell you I've been considered before for vice president and I could tell you how it works. I have no idea how it works and all I know is I'm going to keep working to try to help elect Secretary Clinton. RAMOS: As you know, Donald Trump has nicknames for everyone. Do you have a nickname for Donald Trump? BECERRA: La Trompa. What else can I tell you? RAMOS: Do you want to do the translation for that? BECERRA: All you know is he says one thing but then does another. I don't know about folks who are watching but the last thing you want is someone who's making major decisions to always be able to say one thing and do another. RAMOS: Sixteen Republican candidates underestimated Donald Trump and you know they all lost. Do you think Democrats are making the same mistake -- that they are underestimating Donald Trump? BECERRA: Jorge, I think I may have even said this to you in an interview. But I know I've said this very early on. When Trump first came out with his very insulting comments about Latinos and immigrants, I said, you know what? We need to hear this. It is good to have this out in the open. Because if this doesn't cause us as Latinos, as families of immigrants, to come out and vote and be supportive of those who are with us, then I can't tell you we're going to have success on immigration reform. I can't tell you we're going to do the best job of increasing wages. We need to see that this out there so those that attack us will see we respond. RAMOS: Congressman Becerra, thank you for talking with us. *****


Saved here From: Corinne Matti Sent: Monday, May 16, 2016 11:36 AM To: Paustenbach, Mark Cc: Comm_D Subject: video request: Preibus: Need diversity re Trump VP choice On May 16, 2016, at 11:19 AM, Paustenbach, Mark > wrote: Reince Priebus tells Hugh Hewitt, "there has to be diversity on the ballot" as it relates to Trump's potential Vice President pick. Trump campaign will "take their time and do it right". Mark Paustenbach National Press Secretary & Deputy Communications Director Democratic National Committee W: 202.863.8148 paustenbachm@dnc.org


Said Trump now represented everyone running on the GOP ticket Refused to outright say his old clients represented a conflict considering Trump will now be receiving classified briefings. He just kept saying that they weren't his clients anymore and he doesn't expect that he'll be getting the briefings himself. From: Kane, Michael Sent: Friday, May 06, 2016 12:04 PM To: Comm_D Subject: Video request: Manafort on MSNBC Happening now, thanks.


only flag: Though Hillary Clinton continues to keep the contents of her Wall Street speeches under wraps, she has, to her credit, released years of tax returns. think its fine though ________________________________ From: Paustenbach, Mark Sent: Saturday, May 14, 2016 9:41 AM To: Comm_D Subject: NYT - Donald Trump's Evasions on Taxes Let's blast. On duty Comms team member, please format and send to RR2. Donald Trump's Evasions on Taxes By THE EDITORIAL BOARD American politics has some silly and outdated traditions, but the disclosure of income tax returns by contenders for the presidency isn't one of them. Beginning in 1952, candidates have been releasing their returns to assure voters that they have no conflicts of interests, that they are generous to those in need, and that they take their duties as citizens seriously by meeting their tax obligations to the government. Donald Trump, the de facto Republican presidential nominee, so far has refused to follow suit. On Friday, he disagreed that Americans have a right to see his returns. Asked what his tax rate is during an interview on ABC's "Good Morning America," he snapped, "None of your business." Mitt Romney — the 2012 presidential nominee who released his returns after Mr. Trump and others demanded it — points out how little data exists with which to gauge Mr. Trump's fitness for office. Mr. Trump has no record of military service. He has never held elected office. Born wealthy, he took over his father's business and built a spotty track record. Disclosing his returns might enable Mr. Trump to support one of his main claims on the presidency: that he's a negotiator so skilled it has made him a billionaire. Yet Mr. Trump has a history of becoming irate when the subject of his income taxes comes up and belligerent when journalists have caught him misrepresenting his income and charitable contributions. A decade ago Mr. Trump sued one of them, Timothy O'Brien, an editor at Bloomberg View, for libel. Mr. Trump lost, but in the course of the suit, he was ordered to provide his tax returns. He delayed for months, then produced documents so redacted with black marker that they looked "like crossword puzzles," Mr. O'Brien wrote this week . Mr. Trump finally produced more readable returns, but Mr. O'Brien said he was forbidden by court order to discuss specifics. Though Hillary Clinton continues to keep the contents of her Wall Street speeches under wraps, she has, to her credit, released years of tax returns. And Mr. Trump, in the past, has been a stalwart advocate of disclosure. On Friday the Democratic National Committee released a video of his televised promises, dating back years, to release his returns. The video includes an interview in which he notes that "everybody has done it for many, many years." Mr. Trump now says he won't release his returns because he's being audited. Such concern didn't stop President Nixon from releasing several years of returns in 1973 — even though the Internal Revenue Service subsequently determined that the president owed nearly $500,000 in back taxes. (Mr. Nixon's famous comment, "I'm not a crook," didn't refer to Watergate, but to rumors about tax avoidance, which turned out to be accurate.) Mr. Trump also insists there's nothing to learn from his taxes. If that's the case, why doesn't he trust the voters to come to that conclusion themselves?


The New, Cuddly, Cute White Supremacists [image: scheop.jpg] **Schoep *USA Today* has a bizarrely neutral article up about how white supremacists are toning down their image to better appeal to the masses. They're updating their uniforms (from brown Nazi uniform with a swastika armband to black fatigues), changing their names (from Keystone State Skinheads to Keystone United), and altering their tactics (from violent confrontations to gatherings in public libraries). And if anecdotal evidence can be trusted, it's working! According to *Jeff Schoep*, head of the National Socialist Movement, more and more white folks are being drawn to the movement as they become upset about immigration, worry about Obama, and fret about the economy. "We are the answer for white people," Schoep said. Yikes! But let's step back here a second. Are we supposed to believe the MSM and its inherent biases against white supremacists? Not a chance. Which is why we went to Stormfront, a white nationalist site with 144,000 registered members. What are the soldiers on the ground saying about this supposed rebranding? - "We definitely need to reject the 'white supremacist' identification. It has a connotation that turns away whites and it does not represent my ideology. A supremacist wants to rule over other races, whereas I just want to be left alone from them in a white state."—Iron Struggle - "The sooner some people in this movement quit acting like the stereotype we are portrayed to be by the jew media, the sooner more and more white people will be unafraid to join."—Black Eagle - "The [National Socialist Movement] has really dropped their pseudo-[ Sturmabteilung ] uniforms? I think that's definitely a step in the right direction in terms of being taken seriously- or being seen as fighting for the future rather than hoping to relive the past. I might consider joining them now- I was always a bit hesitant because of that impression, but I like this change. : )"—88 Soldat - "Admittedly, we were slow to change our ways. But now, to every one they count here, they're realizing we jumped from hundreds offline supporting us to thousands now. I can only see these numbers growing as long as the movement continues to modernize itself with the changed times and does so legally."—Kolonel - "We have to do our best in denouncing and disassociating ourselves from the tired, over-used label of 'White supremacists'. I know I do. It must be made clear time and again that all we want is what every other race has. A homeland in the corner of the world for their own kind."—Steeltrump - "How about something like 'White Unity'? I agree, 'white supremacist', or 'white power' are harsh labels for a lot of us. I certainly do not manifest those types of harsh labels, but I am very concerned about the present state of the U.S., and the decline of white race and culture as compared to black and latino cultures which are being forced upon us whether we want them or not.—Atremis133 End of news story... --


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Ciao Antonio,   Non ho nessun riferimento. Gli ordini li faceva direttamente il Vale. ciao   Antonella Capaldo Administrative Support   Hacking Team Milan Singapore Washington DC www.hackingteam.com email:  a.capaldo@hackingteam.com mobile:+39 3667216471 phone: +39 0229060603   --


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Team, We will be using the listerv for tomorrow's contest in IN. Cheers, Lindsey Lindsey Reynolds | Chief Operating Officer Democratic National Committee direct: 202.863.7166| cell: 202.215.9864


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I look foreword to hearing from you. --- William Herring wrote: > > Greetings Brother! We are always happy to hear from > another awakened white man. This is not Commander > Schoep, by the way. My name is William Herring, a > member of the NSM Staff Corps. I work 7 days a week > including Saturday and Sunday, but I will be home > after 5PM on both days. I give you a ring one of > those evening and I can answer any questions you may > have. > > > Sincerely, > > > > William Herring, NSM Staff > Corps > _________________________________________________________________ > Make Windows Vista more reliable and secure with > Windows Vista Service Pack 1. > ____________________________________________________________________________________ Be a better friend, newshound, and know-it-all with Yahoo! Mobile. Try it now.


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" X-Priority: 3 (Normal) X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627 Importance: Normal X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.3350 Dear Dr Santer, Could you please provide me either with the monthly model data (49 series) used for statistical analysis in Santer et al 2008 or a link to a URL. I understand that your version has been collated from PCMDI ; my interest is in a file of the data as you used it (I presume that the monthly data used for statistics is about 1-2 MB) . Thank you for your attention, Steve McIntyre


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Comrades, We are pleased to announce a new NSM contact point for the State of New Jersey. The Party is experiencing unprecedented growth as we enter the Summer of 2008. Now more than ever the NSM is moving forward and advancing, join with us today. To contact the new NSM New Jersey contact: nsm88newjersey@gmail.com -- Commander Jeff Schoep "If you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem." National Socialist Movement www.nsm88.org The information in this email is confidential and may be legally privileged. Furthermore, the NSM is not responsible for the content of this e-mail, and anything written in this e-mail does not necessarily reflect the NSM's views or opinions. Access to this email by anyone other than the intended addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient of this message, any review, disclosure, copying, distribution, retention, or any action taken or omitted to be taken in reliance on it is prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this mail in error, please destroy the copy in your possession and notify: commander@newsaxon.org


----- Original Message ----- From: Denise Moseley To: Pamela Anderson ; ; ; ; amy bailie ; The Naylors ; karin ; Rochelle Maffet ; Judy Bastien ; Bruce Moseley Sent: Sunday, October 28, 2001 11:41 PM Subject: Fw: Women > > > > > > > > > WOMEN > > > > > > > > > They smile when they want to scream. > > > They sing when they want to cry. > > > They cry when they are happy and laugh > > > when they are nervous > > > They fight for what they believe in. > > > They stand up for injustice. > > > They don't take "no" for an answer when > > > they believe there is a better solution. > > > > > > They go without new shoes so their > > > children can have them. > > > They go to the doctor with a frightened friend. > > > They love unconditionally. > > > They cry when their children excel and > > > cheer when their friends get awards. > > > > > > They are happy when they hear about a > > > birth or a new marriage. > > > Their hearts break when a friend dies. > > > They have sorrow at the loss of a family > > > member, yet they are strong when they think there is no strength left. > > > > They know that a hug and a kiss can heal a > > > broken heart. > > > > > > Women come in all sizes, in all colors and shapes. > > > They'll drive, fly, walk, run or e-mail > > > you to show how much they care about you. > > > The heart of a woman is what makes the world spin! > > > Women do more than just give birth. > > > They bring joy and hope. > > > They give compassion and ideals. > > > They give moral support to their family and friends. > > > Women have a lot to say and a lot to give. > > > > > > This has been sent to you from someone who > > > respects you as a woman > > > Pass it along to your woman friends to > > > remind them how amazing > > > they are............ > > > > > > IT'S BEAUTIFUL WOMEN MONTH! > > > > > > IT'S GOOD TO BE THE WOMAN. > > > > > > We got off the Titanic first. > > > > > > We can scare male bosses with mysterious > > > gynecological disorder excuses. > > > > > > Taxis stop for us. > > > > > > We don't look like a frog in a blender when dancing. > > > > > > No fashion faux pas we make could ever > > > rival The Speedo. > > > > > > We don't have to pass gas to amuse ourselves. > > > > > > If we forget to shave, no one has to know. > > > > > > We can congratulate our teammate without > > > ever touching her rear. > > > > > > We never have to reach down every so often > > > to make sure our privates are still there. > > > > > > We have the ability to dress ourselves. > > > > > > We can talk to people of the opposite sex > > > without having to picture them naked. > > > > > > If we marry someone 20 years younger, > > > we're aware that we look like an idiot. > > > > > > There are times when chocolate really can > > > solve all your problems. > > > > > > We'll never regret piercing our ears. > > > > > > We can fully assess a person just by > > > looking at their shoes. > > > > > > We can make comments about how silly men > > > are in their presence, because they aren't listening > > > anyway. > > > > > > SEND THIS TO FIVE BRIGHT WOMEN YOU KNOW AND MAKE THEIR DAY !!! >


Something bad is happening in New Jersey. Read the article below and write a letter. You can write anything you want but I suggest some of these themes: -you got it wrong, the bill doesn't help women, it only helps drug companies -look who spent millions to lobby for this bill. Mothers? -no, Babies? -no. Drug companies? -YES -Pregnant mothers will be treated with dangerous drugs that are known to make people suicidal and violent -No science to the diagnosis -Having this screening in place will prevent women from seeking out true solutions, like nutrition, hormones, real physical illness Oh, and if you can manage it, be compassionate to mothers who experience the very real symptoms that they like to call Postpartum Depression. Be compassionate even to the lady, Mrs. Codey, who is helping to foist this horrible plague on the women of her state. Make sense? The mothers are the victims. The psychs and drug companies are the villians. Send your letter to hnletters@northjersey.com and if you last name begins with A-C or M-S, please send a copy to groves@northjersey.com, the reporter. And report compliance by email. Thanks, Doyle sN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXk2OTE2OTg2JnlyaXJ5N2Y3MTdmN3ZxZWVFRXl5Mg== Codeys celebrate signing of bill to help troubled moms e-mail print Friday, April 14, 2006 By BOB GROVES STAFF WRITER THOMAS E. FRANKLIN / THE RECORD arrowGovernor Corzine, seated, preparing to sign a bill Thursday at Hackensack University Medical Center to help mothers with postpartum depression. HACKENSACK -- There was no cake and candles, but Mary Jo Codey was celebrating. The occasion was the delivery of a new law that will help women in New Jersey cope with depression after childbirth "Today feels like my birthday," the former governor's wife said Thursday, shortly after Governor Corzine signed a bill requiring health care professionals to screen all new mothers for postpartum depression and provide them with prenatal education about the disorder. Codey, who suffered suicidal depression following the birth of her two sons, has championed the cause for the past 12 years. She and her husband, state Sen. and former Gov. Richard J. Codey, joined about 200 public officials and health advocates for the signing at Hackensack University Medical Center. Corzine said it was a privilege to hold his first public bill signing with the Codeys. "This great twosome," Corzine said, had the courage to convince legislators that "postpartum depression can be recognized and effectively treated." The bill, which includes $4.5 million for education and screening, takes effect in six months. It was sponsored by Codey, D-Essex, and state Sen. Diane Allen, R-Burlington. An identical Assembly bill was sponsored by Republicans Peter Biondi and Christopher Bateman of Morris and Somerset counties, respectively. Both the present and past governors praised Mary Jo Codey. By speaking out, "Mary Jo has broken through to a national level, to the nation's consciousness," Corzine said. Until now, postpartum depression was difficult for many women to discuss, and "the medical community was slow to understand and treat it," Senator Codey said. "Today, we're changing the rules," he said. "Thanks to Mary Jo's courage, the days of suffering and sorrow are over. Today, every mother can get the help she deserves." Women "facing the fear and uncertainty of postpartum depression will have someone looking out for them," he said. Mary Jo Codey said she went public about her postpartum depression years ago to help other women realize that, like her, "they can have absolutely everything and still be a mess after the birth." "I suffered like a dog," said Codey, 50, who confessed in the past to feeling low enough to want to put her newborn in a microwave oven. "No woman on the face of this earth should have to suffer the way I did," she said. "I came so close to suicide so many times. I thought, if God got me out of this mess, I wouldn't keep my mouth shut" about her experience, in order to help others. About 80 percent of women experience some form of milder depression, or "baby blues," during the first two weeks after giving birth. But one in eight women develops postpartum depression, including sadness and fatigue. This more serious condition, caused by stress and hormonal imbalance, can last months, and may develop into psychosis. Alexis E. Menken, a clinical psychologist in Montclair, said the numbers of women suffering from postpartum depression may be even higher than current estimates. "This legislation is not just about New Jersey," said Menken, state coordinator for the advocacy group Postpartum Support International. "It will pave the way for the entire nation to pay attention to maternal mental health." Caring for a new infant is "an overwhelming responsibility," said Ilise Zimmerman, head of the Northern New Jersey Maternal and Child Health Consortium. "Everyone's smiling, but inside, you're crying. What happens if you go to your physician who says, 'I don't know what's happening to you,' " she said. The new law will help health care professionals keep up with maternal mental health issues, she said. E-mail: groves@northjersey.com __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around


---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Zachary Clary Date: Jun 11, 2008 3:06 PM Subject: Re: Join NSM To: Commander Schoep Zach Clary 125-2 Lake St. Ephrata, PA 17522 Well, I would like to be a member, but I am under 18 (almost 17). Does this mean that I *HAVE *to be a "viking youth" or can I be a regular member...or could I have more info on the viking youth? But presently I would prefer to be a regular member. But I found the apps, some links work others don't....So I got it. On it there were rankings like stormtrooper and enlisted are the only there I'm interested in. Other than VY. What is the difference? So my questions are: What is VY? Is it just a young member or something more special? and, What is Stormtrooper vs. Enlisted as a reg member? And how can I get an upcoming event list? Thank you! Have a white day! sincerely, Zach On 11/06/2008, Commander Schoep wrote: > > If you send us your address we will mail you an app. 88 p.s. Which app do > you want, member, supporter, lifetime member, viking youth, or??? > > On 6/11/08, Zachary Clary wrote: >> >> Hello I have tried to get the app off the site, but the link doesn't >> work!! please do what you can!! Thank you! >> Have a white day, >> Sincrely, >> Zach >> > > > > -- > Commander Jeff Schoep > "If you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem." > National Socialist Movement www.nsm88.org > > The information in this email is confidential and may be legally > privileged. Furthermore, the NSM is not responsible for the content of this > e-mail, and anything written in this e-mail does not necessarily reflect the > NSM's views or opinions. Access to this email by anyone other than the > intended addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient > of this message, any review, disclosure, copying, distribution, retention, > or any action taken or omitted to be taken in reliance on it is prohibited > and may be unlawful. If you have received this mail in error, please destroy > the copy in your possession and notify: commander@newsaxon.org -- Commander Jeff Schoep "If you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem." National Socialist Movement www.nsm88.org The information in this email is confidential and may be legally privileged. Furthermore, the NSM is not responsible for the content of this e-mail, and anything written in this e-mail does not necessarily reflect the NSM's views or opinions. Access to this email by anyone other than the intended addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient of this message, any review, disclosure, copying, distribution, retention, or any action taken or omitted to be taken in reliance on it is prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this mail in error, please destroy the copy in your possession and notify: commander@newsaxon.org


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Daily Newsletter .mail_style1 { text-align: center; background-color: #3399FF; } .mail_style2 { color: #E1E11B; font-size: xx-large; font-family: Impact, Haettenschweiler, "Arial Narrow Bold", sans-serif; } .mail_style3 { margin-left: 40px; } .mail_style4 { color: #FFFFFF; } .mail_style5 { font-size: medium; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; } .mail_style6 { color: #BC1919; } StockTips Hi a.pelliccione, Hope all is well with you and the family. I know you reached out to me last month looking for a good investment amid this crazy market. I must tell you it has been very hard to find something solid. Theres very few hidden gems out there and I honestly didnt even think I would be able to find something. That being said the best Ive been able to find is RNBI and when I say best, it really seems to be a god send. I told a few of my other clients about it last month as it seemed pretty cheap and it has gone up by more than 50% since. Im giving you a heads up on RNBI because I spoke with a few of my colleagues and they agree that it will hit a dollar some time in the coming weeks. Dont tell anyone you hear this from me please we're suppose to keep it on the down low. The company operates in the legalhemp industry, apparently the sector has been going nuts since colorado and washington made the stuff legal and apparently RNBI is going to announce some big news soon. Not sure what it is but my source is usually pretty spot on. Take care and let me know if you need anything else. Ill keep you posted if I have some more news. (c) 2014. StockTips. All rights reserved. 7080 Santa Monica Blvd, West Hollywood, CA 90038 Unsubscribe --


----- Original Message ----- From: Heidi Black To: tgeaccone@houston.rr.com Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2001 1:19 PM Subject: update Also, if you know someone at Harold Powell that would be a great one too! Skip Mumsies - it is no longer in business, I believe, as the number has been disconnected and there is no other listing for it. Heidi Black heidiblack@houston.rr.com


Front to backs are huge Is the delivered basis market holding value or is it getting crushed?. Heard about el paso oct feb roll, from where I'm at, thinking selling Oct and going long Feb phys is better than feb merc, rather stack length in winter front and bet on hording of existing storage given forecast At these levels I like owning winter physical against NYMEX short?Is the bias that the EFP's blow out further? Frank


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Bill: > I've decided that I ought to put some of my writing samples on-line for > potential employers to mock. And I don't want to pay for it. There are still > a couple dozen places to do this, do any of you have preferences? > Getting your own domain needn't be expensive, looks more professional, and you're not going to suddenly lose your site with little or no notice (yes, I'm still smarting from bastard Geocities). I registered mine through  - works out about a pound a week for registration and 30Mb hosting. It's a valuable service, there's no reason not to expect to pay. TimC ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~--> Looking for a more powerful website? Try GeoCities for $8.95 per month. Register your domain name ( More storage! No ads! ---------------------------------------------------------------------~-> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: forteana-unsubscribe@egroups.com Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to


Dear Rashit, As always I seem to have been away bullshiting and politiking in various meetings for weeks! I try to convince myself that this is of use to us as a dendrochronological community but I am not so sure how much that is really true these days. I have the data you sent and I had to get someone here to decode it for me . That is fine now so I would like to try and reformat and RCS it . I will be back in touch soon. Your paper is in review for Denrochronologia. I am very keen to get a much more detailed paper in The Holocene dealing with this stuff and I hope you and Stepan will consider this - perhaps for some time in spring next year. Sorry I wasn't in touch sooner. Please give my regards to Stepan and Valerie. very best wishes Keith


Dear folks, I've been doing some calculations to address one of the statistical issues raised by the Douglass et al. paper in the International Journal of Climatology. Here are some of my results. Recall that Douglass et al. calculated synthetic T2LT and T2 temperatures from the CMIP-3 archive of 20th century simulations ("20c3m" runs). They used a total of 67 20c3m realizations, performed with 22 different models. In calculating the statistical uncertainty of the model trends, they introduced sigma{SE}, an "estimate of the uncertainty of the mean of the predictions of the trends". They defined sigma{SE} as follows: sigma{SE} = sigma / sqrt(N - 1), where "N = 22 is the number of independent models". As we've discussed in our previous correspondence, this definition has serious problems (see comments from Carl and Steve below), and allows Douglass et al. to reach the erroneous conclusion that modeled T2LT and T2 trends are significantly different from the observed T2LT and T2 trends in both the RSS and UAH datasets. This comparison of simulated and observed T2LT and T2 trends is given in Table III of Douglass et al. [As an amusing aside, I note that the RSS datasets are referred to as "RSS" in this table, while UAH results are designated as "MSU". I guess there's only one true "MSU" dataset...] I decided to take a quick look at the issue of the statistical significance of differences between simulated and observed tropospheric temperature trends. My first cut at this "quick look" involves only UAH and RSS observational data - I have not yet done any tests with radiosonde datas, UMD T2 data, or satellite results from Zou et al. I operated on the same 49 realizations of the 20c3m experiment that we used in Chapter 5 of CCSP 1.1. As in our previous work, all model results are synthetic T2LT and T2 temperatures that I calculated using a static weighting function approach. I have not yet implemented Carl's more sophisticated method of estimating synthetic MSU temperatures from model data (which accounts for effects of topography and land/ocean differences). However, for the current application, the simple static weighting function approach is more than adequate, since we are focusing on T2LT and T2 changes over tropical oceans only - so topographic and land-ocean differences are unimportant. Note that I still need to calculate synthetic MSU temperatures from about 18-20 20c3m realizations which were not in the CMIP-3 database at the time we were working on the CCSP report. For the full response to Douglass et al., we should use the same 67 20c3m realizations that they employed. For each of the 49 realizations that I processed, I first masked out all tropical land areas, and then calculated the spatial averages of monthly-mean, gridded T2LT and T2 data over tropical oceans (20N-20S). All model and observational results are for the common 252-month period from January 1979 to December 1999 - the longest period of overlap between the RSS and UAH MSU data and the bulk of the 20c3m runs. The simulated trends given by Douglass et al. are calculated over the same 1979 to 1999 period; however, they use a longer period (1979 to 2004) for calculating observational trends - so there is an inconsistency between their model and observational analysis periods, which they do not explain. This difference in analysis periods is a little puzzling given that we are dealing with relatively short observational record lengths, resulting in some sensitivity to end-point effects. I then calculated anomalies of the spatially-averaged T2LT and T2 data (w.r.t. climatological monthly-means over 1979-1999), and fit least-squares linear trends to model and observational time series. The standard errors of the trends were adjusted for temporal autocorrelation of the regression residuals, as described in Santer et al. (2000) ["Statistical significance of trends and trend differences in layer-average atmospheric temperature time series"; JGR 105, 7337-7356.] Consider first panel A of the attached plot. This shows the simulated and observed T2LT trends over 1979 to 1999 (again, over 20N-20S, oceans only) with their adjusted 1-sigma confidence intervals). For the UAH and RSS data, it was possible to check against the adjusted confidence intervals independently calculated by Dian during the course of work on the CCSP report. Our adjusted confidence intervals are in good agreement. The grey shaded envelope in panel A denotes the 1-sigma standard error for the RSS T2LT trend. There are 49 pairs of UAH-minus-model trend differences and 49 pairs of RSS-minus-model trend differences. We can therefore test - for each model and each 20c3m realization - whether there is a statistically significant difference between the observed and simulated trends. Let bx and by represent any single pair of modeled and observed trends, with adjusted standard errors s{bx} and s{by}. As in our previous work (and as in related work by John Lanzante), we define the normalized trend difference d as: d = (bx - by) / sqrt[ (s{bx})**2 + (s{by})**2 ] Under the assumption that d is normally distributed, values of d > +1.96 or Hi Steve > > I'd say it's the equivalent of rolling a 6-sided die a hundred times, and > finding a mean value of ~3.5 and a standard deviation of ~1.7, and > calculating the standard error of the mean to be ~0.17 (so far so > good). An then rolling the die one more time, getting a 2, and > claiming that the die is no longer 6 sided because the new measurement > is more than 2 standard errors from the mean. > > In my view, this problem trumps the other problems in the paper. > I can't believe Douglas is a fellow of the American Physical Society. > > -Carl > > > At 02:07 AM 12/6/2007, you wrote: >> If I understand correctly, what Douglass et al. did makes the stronger >> assumption that unforced variability is *insignificant*. Their >> statistical test is logically equivalent to falsifying a climate model >> because it did not consistently predict a particular storm on a >> particular day two years from now. > > > Dr. Carl Mears > Remote Sensing Systems > 438 First Street, Suite 200, Santa Rosa, CA 95401 > mears@remss.com > 707-545-2904 x21 > 707-545-2906 (fax)) -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Benjamin D. Santer Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103 Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A. Tel: (925) 422-2486 FAX: (925) 422-7675 email: santer1@llnl.gov ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\douglass_reply1.pdf"


FYI. Current thinking all in. -----Original Message----- From: Cilia, Mary Sent: Wednesday, September 26, 2001 1:33 PM To: Goodrow, Alicia; Bowes, Bill; Hayslett, Rod Subject: Revised Gain


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Will get right back Just pinged our EP Savannah Guthrie NBC News TODAY On May 2, 2016, at 10:10 AM, Miranda, Luis > wrote: Hi Savannah, it was great seeing you Saturday. l Just wanted to follow to see if you guys were interested in having DNC Chair Wasserman Schultz on tomorrow morning on Today. Thanks, and hope you got some rest after this crazy weekend, - Luis. Luis Miranda, Communications Director Democratic National Committee 202-863-8148 – MirandaL@dnc.org - @MiraLuisDC From: Miranda, Luis Sent: Thursday, April 28, 2016 12:52 PM To: 'Savannah.Guthrie@nbcuni.com ' Subject: DNC Chair next Tuesday? Hi Savannah, hope you're well. DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz will be in New York next Tuesday and I wanted to see if you guys would be interested in having her on for Today. Let me know what you think. Best regards, - Luis. Luis Miranda, Communications Director Democratic National Committee 202-863-8148 – MirandaL@dnc.org - @MiraLuisDC


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Some of his past comments on making money off the campaign, plus a couple examples of him acting more like a sleazy salesman than a candidate TRUMP REPEATEDLY BRAGS ABOUT MAKING MONEY OFF OF HIS PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS 10/31/15: Donald Trump Bragged That He Actually Made A Profit Running For President - "If I Net It Out, I'm At Like A Million Bucks." "I'm Running for President. I have spent less money than any other candidate running for president and I'm number one. Now think of it. No think of it. No, think of 'em. So I've spent - and a big part of what I've spend is my airplane which I get reimbursed for. So that shows here - but I actually - so I've spent even less than people think. You have to put down market value. You play, whatever the hell it is, so they put it down there - so it's actually even better. But I've spent less money than any other candidate. We're number one. Others have spent 28 million. I think if I net it out, I'm at like a million bucks, right? So far it's been a good deal." [Trump Campaign Rally, Norfolk VA, 10/31/15] In His Book, "Crippled America" Donald Trump Said His Income Rose Since He Entered The Presidential Race. In Donald Trump's book "Crippled America," "He reports that his net worth has gone up since he entered the presidential race and estimates it at more than $10 billion, considerably higher than where Bloomberg's Billionaires Index puts it. Trump, who is running a populist campaign, says his income for 2015 'will exceed $600 million.'" [Bloomberg, 10/27/15 ] Donald Trump Said His Presidential Campaign Benefitted His Business "Because Of The Excitement Factor," Which He Said Was "Even More Of An Asset Internationally." "'I'm still running a business. It's doing phenomenal, and the hotels are doing even better because of the excitement factor,' he told The Post from his office on the 26th floor. The campaign, he says, is 'even more of an asset internationally. I have many projects all over the world and for those partners, in China, India and other countries, they read about the [presidential campaign] and they see the big picture,' Trump said. 'It's had a positive impact.' [New York Post, 1/24/16 ] Trump In 2000: "I'm The Only Candidate Who Makes Money When He Runs." "There may be many reasons to run for president of the United States, but the chance to turn a profit on the campaign trail is generally not one of them. Unless the office-seeker happens to be Donald J. Trump. 'I'm the only candidate who makes money when he runs,' said Mr. Trump, who is toying with seeking the Reform Party's nomination for president. Mr. Trump commands $100,000 a speech, he said, adding, with his trademark hyperbole, that he was the highest-paid lecturer in the country." [New York Times, 1/9/00] * Trump Cited Paid Speeches He Was Making At Tony Robbins' Seminars While On The Campaign Trail And Said "It's Very Possible That I Could Be The First Presidential Candidate To Run And Make Money On It." "Trump had inked a deal with Tony Robbins, the frighteningly upbeat motivational speaker, by which Robbins would pay Trump $1 million to give ten speeches at his seminars around the country. Crucially, Trump had timed his political stops to coincide with Robbins' seminars, so that he was 'making a lot of money' on those campaign stops. 'It's very possible that I could be the first presidential candidate to run and make money on it,' Trump said, adding that 'there's no way a good businessman' would have blown the kind of money Steve Forbes had. I wondered whether Trump was proposing his own special version of campaign finance reform here. I also wondered where he was planning to come up with the $100 million he was promising to spend if nominated, considering that his cash flow seemed much more precarious than he claimed." [Fortune, 4/3/00 ] TRUMP REPEATEDLY TOUTS HIS PROPERTIES AND BOOKS AT HIS CAMPAIGN EVENTS New York Times: "Virtually Every Trump Speech Includes A Reference To One Of His Hotels Or Casinos" And Sales Of His 1987 Book Skyrocketed After He Repeatedly Touted It On The Trail. "Virtually every Trump speech includes a reference to one of his hotels or casinos; recently he heaped praise on the Doral, the luxury golf resort outside Miami he acquired in 2012. He often suggests that the Obama administration should have read his book 'The Art of the Deal' before negotiating the Iran nuclear agreement. (As Mr. Wilson suspected, sales of that 1987 best seller have lately skyrocketed, from 3,000 copies in 2014 to 47,000 in 2015.)" [New York Times, 2/5/16 ] Trump Once Held A Campaign Press Conference, Then Led The National Media On A Tour Of His New Hotel. "It was billed as a campaign event, but all Donald Trump wanted to do was show off his fancy new property. Trump led a horde of national media on a literal runaround of the hotel he's building in the Old Post Office, just blocks from the White House he hopes to soon call home. 'Let's take a tour. Nobody asked about the hotel!' he declared as he concluded a half-hour press conference, leading a swarm of close to 200 reporters through the half-finished site. Even hardened Trump reporters shook their heads at the absurdity of his latest stunt." [Mashable, 3/21/16 ] * HEADLINE: "And Now, For A Commercial Break, Donald Trump Pitches His D.C. Hotel" [Washington Post, 3/21/16 ] TRUMP ONCE ESSENTIALLY TURNED A PRESS CONFERENCE INTO AN INFOMERCIAL HEADLINE: "Trump Infomercial Captivates Networks" [Politico, 3/9/16 ] Politico: Trump's Press Conference "Veered Into Sales Pitches For His Own Product Lines ... Touting His Wines, Steaks, Golf Courses, And Even His Water." "All three networks stuck with Trump's long press conference even as it veered into sales pitches for his own product lines, despite the fact that Hillary Clinton, who had won the Mississippi primary in a landslide and was neck-and-neck in Michigan, spoke at the same time... What struck many critics like Elleithee was that Trump wasn't even making much news. He was mostly just riffing. He took questions from reporters but also veered into long digressions touting his wines, steaks, golf courses, and even his water." [Politico, 3/9/16 ] HEADLINE: "Donald Trump Spent Election Night Pitching Trump Products That You Can't Buy Anymore" [Vox, 3/9/16 ] TRUMP LOANED HIS CAMPAIGN MONEY, BUT TECHNICALLY HE COULD PAY HIMSELF BACK WITH FUTURE DONATIONS HEADLINE: "Trump Campaign Could Use New Donations to Pay Donald Trump $36M for Loan" [NBC News, 5/13/16 ]


Thanks for that info, Luis. Edited below, per the President's remarks: DNC Chair Statement in Honor of Cinco de Mayo Washington, D.C - DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz released the following statement today in honor of Cinco de Mayo: "Cinco de Mayo is a special day in Mexican history - a day that commemorates what can be best described as an improbable victory. On May 5, 1862, Mexican fighters and workers decided to take a stand and defend themselves from the mighty French Army despite being both out-manned and out-armed. The odds were clearly against them, but it was the hope of creating a better life for themselves and their children that fueled them and that ultimately allowed them to emerge victorious at the Battle of Puebla. "More than 150 years later, that spirit of resilience and determination very much lives on among the millions of Mexican Americans in our country. Simply put, they've made immense contributions in politics, education, medicine, engineering, sports, food, and military service, and in so doing, our two cultures have grown closer than ever. And so, as we celebrate this important day that brings both sides of the border together, I would like to make one thing crystal clear: we, the Democratic Party, are proud to stand with Mexican Americans and all others from coast-to-coast who want nothing but the chance to live the American dream and bring to fruition a brighter future. We celebrate our diversity, for it has made us a richer and more vibrant place. "This, of course, stands in stark contrast with what we have heard time and again from the official Republican nominee, Donald Trump. Let us not forget that he kicked off his campaign by calling Mexicans 'rapists' and 'drug dealers,' that he has promised to tear families apart and deport 11.3 million undocumented immigrants, and that he has promised to get rid of President Obama's executive orders on immigration, known as DACA and DAPA. That is fundamentally un-American, and it runs counter to the values that have made America great for so long. End of story." ### From: Miranda, Luis Sent: Wednesday, May 04, 2016 4:04 PM To: Garcia, Walter Cc: Walker, Eric; Paustenbach, Mark Subject: RE: FOR COMMS APPROVAL: DWS Cinco De Mayo Statement Needs work. Please look at Obama's remarks on Cinco de Mayo. Also, it's as American as Apple Pie. It really got popular in California. It's an example of how deeply our cultures are tied together. According to a paper published by the UCLA Center for the Study of Latino Health and Culture about the origin of the observance of Cinco de Mayo in the United States , the modern American focus on that day first started in California in the 1860s in response to the resistance to French rule in Mexico. "Far up in the gold country town of Columbia (now Columbia State Park ) Mexican miners were so overjoyed at the news that they spontaneously fired off rifles shots and fireworks, sang patriotic songs and made impromptu speeches."[29] A 2007 UCLA Newsroom article notes that "The holiday, which has been celebrated in California continuously since 1863, is virtually ignored in Mexico."[29] TIME magazine reports that "Cinco de Mayo started to come into vogue in 1940s America during the rise of the Chicano Movement ."[18] The holiday crossed over from California into the rest of the United States in the 1950s and 1960s but did not gain popularity until the 1980s when marketers, especially beer companies, capitalized on the celebratory nature of the day and began to promote it.[30] [31] It grew in popularity and evolved into a celebration of Mexican culture and heritage, first in areas with large Mexican-American populations, like Los Angeles , Chicago , Houston and San Jose .[32] In a 1998 study in the Journal of American Culture it was reported that there were more than 120 official US celebrations of Cinco de Mayo in 21 different US states. An update in 2006 found that the number of official Cinco de Mayo events was 150 or more, according to José Alamillo, a professor of ethnic studies at Washington State University in Pullman, who has studied the cultural impact of Cinco de Mayo north of the border.[33] [ Cinco de Mayo celebration in Saint Paul, Minnesota In the United States Cinco de Mayo has taken on a significance beyond that in Mexico.[5] [34] [35] [36] On June 7, 2005, the United States Congress issued a concurrent resolution calling on the President of the United States to issue a proclamation calling upon the people of the United States to observe Cinco de Mayo with appropriate ceremonies and activities.[2] To celebrate, many display Cinco de Mayo banners while school districts hold special events to educate students about its historical significance. Special events and celebrations highlight Mexican culture, especially in its music and regional dancing. Examples include baile folklórico and mariachi demonstrations held annually at the Plaza del Pueblo de Los Ángeles , near Olvera Street . Commercial interests in the United States have capitalized on the celebration, advertising Mexican products and services, with an emphasis on alcoholic beverages,[37] [38] foods, and music.[39] [40] www.www Cinco de Mayo marks a singular moment in Mexican history. Nearly 150 years ago, a ragtag band of soldiers and citizens, badly outnumbered and facing impossible odds, held their ground on a muddy hill to defend their nation from what was at the time the most fearsome fighting force in the world. That decisive victory at what became known as the Battle of Puebla ignited a pride in country and culture that Mexican Americans feel to this day. And tomorrow, on both sides of our border, we'll pay tribute to our shared heritage by celebrating with friends and family, with love and laughter. We'll remember that America is a richer and more vibrant place thanks to the contributions of Mexican Americans -- (applause) - ... We'll remember that the contributions of commerce and culture, in language and literature, in faith, and in food have all made America a better place. And we will honor the service of Mexican Americans who have worn the uniform of the United States. We'll also recommit to advancing the ambitions and the dreams of generations of Mexican Americans and all Latinos who have had an immeasurable impact on the life of this nation. Now, the events of this date in history are well-known -- how nearly 150 years ago, at the Battle of Puebla, a band of Mexican patriots faced off against a massive European army and won a victory that inspires the world to this day. Less well-known is that General Zaragoza, who led those patriots, was born in what is now the town of Goliad in Texas. In fact, you can go there today -- are you from there? ... So the glory of this day is shared by both of our countries. And so is our pride in the lasting contributions that Hispanics have made to America throughout our history, including the men and women who join us here tonight. ... Now, by celebrating the story of Hispanics in America, we're really celebrating the larger story of America. After all, the dreams of Mexican Americans and all Latinos are the same dreams as any other American. It's why, in the face of an unprecedented economic crisis, we took bold action to get our economy growing again, creating jobs again and laying the foundation for lasting prosperity. ...So today reminds us that America's diversity is America's strength. That's why I spoke out against the recently passed law in Arizona. (Applause.) Make no mistake, our immigration system is broken. And after so many years in which Washington has failed to meet its responsibilities, Americans are right to be frustrated, including folks along border states. But the answer isn't to undermine fundamental principles that define us as a nation. We can't start singling out people because of who they look like, or how they talk, or how they dress. We can't turn law-abiding American citizens -- and law-abiding immigrants -- into subjects of suspicion and abuse. We can't divide the American people that way. That's not the answer. That's not who we are as the United States of America. ... So, today I want us to remember -- the United States and Mexico are not simply neighbors, bound by geography and history. We're two societies that are woven together by millions of family and friends, by common interests and a shared future. Those are bonds that are unbreakable. They're bonds of an aspirational community -- you and your mothers and fathers, and brothers and sisters who struggled and sacrificed to realize the American Dream. They're also bonds of commerce and trade that sustain millions of jobs -- both in Mexico and in the United States. But this is really a day for commemorating our shared heritage. Our shared heritage -- Mexicans and Americans. It's a day for remembering that America is a richer, stronger, more vibrant place thanks to the contributions of Mexican Americans to the life of this nation -- contributions in commerce, culture, in language and literature, in faith, and obviously in food. (Laughter.)... we all come from different backgrounds, we have different beliefs, we have sometimes petty and sometimes not-so-petty political differences. But we all share a set of ideals. We all have a common future. We're the heirs to mothers and fathers and grandparents, great grandparents, who struggled and sacrificed to forge and realize the American Dream. And that fills us with the collective responsibility to leave an even bigger and bolder, more generous, more compassionate nation for our children. [SigDems] Luis Miranda, Communications Director Democratic National Committee 202-863-8148 - MirandaL@dnc.org - @MiraLuisDC From: Garcia, Walter Sent: Wednesday, May 04, 2016 3:15 PM To: Miranda, Luis Cc: Walker, Eric; Paustenbach, Mark Subject: FOR COMMS APPROVAL: DWS Cinco De Mayo Statement DNC Chair Statement in Honor of Cinco de Mayo Washington, D.C - DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz released the following statement today in honor of Cinco de Mayo: "Cinco de Mayo is a special day in Mexican history - a day that commemorates what can be best described as an improbable victory. On May 5, 1862, Mexican fighters and workers decided to take a stand and oppose the French Army despite being both out-manned and out-armed. The odds were clearly against them, but it was the hope of creating a better life for themselves and their children that fueled them and that ultimately allowed them to emerge victorious at the Battle of Puebla. "More than 150 years later, that spirit of resilience and determination lives on among the millions of Mexican Americans in our country, as evident by the immense contributions that they've made to fields like politics, education, medicine, engineering, and sports. And so, as we celebrate on this important day, I would like to make one thing crystal clear: we, the Democratic Party, are proud to stand with Mexican Americans and all others from coast-to-coast who want nothing but the chance to live the American dream and bring to fruition a brighter future. "This, of course, stands in stark contrast with what we have heard time and again from the official Republican nominee, Donald Trump. Let us not forget that he kicked off his campaign by calling Mexicans 'rapists' and 'drug dealers,' that he has promised to tear families apart and deport 11.3 million undocumented immigrants, and that he has promised to get rid of President Obama's executive orders on immigration, known as DACA and DAPA. That is fundamentally un-American, and it runs counter to the values that have made America great for so long. End of story." ### -- Walter Garcia Western Regional Press Secretary Democratic National Committee (DNC) Email: GarciaW@dnc.org Twitter: @WalterGarcia231 [SigDems]


CONTRIBUTION DATA ----------------- Page: IN016 - DWS Indianapolis Reception Type: One-time Number of Tickets: 2 Ticket Amount: $500.00 Ticket Info: %%TicketInfo%% Additional Contribution Amount: 0 Total Amount: $500.00 First Name: Robert Last Name: Finch Address: 133 Willowrun Place Indianapolis, IN 46260 Phone: 3179166770 Email: finch@finchconstructors.com Employer: Finch Constructors Employer Address: , Occupation: Contractor Payment Type: Visa Account #: 1600 Transaction #: %%TransactionId%% User Id #: %%UserId%% Contribution Key: IH-hg5e98Eim8B1mJc CUSTOM FIELD DATA ------------------------------ (Section header: "Additional Information") Fundraiser code (optional): Who encouraged you to make this contribution?: Guest name(s), if contributing for multiple tickets: Theresa Finch GENERAL INFORMATION ------------------- Submit Date: Wed, 18 May 2016 16:55:50 -0400 Status: Authorized Client IP Address: 208.69.4.252 Client Browser: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 6.1; WOW64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/50.0.2661.102 Safari/537.36


I agree; Keith should have the room, and section 6.5.8 should be compatible - has Fortunat followed the discussion between David/Stefan. Can you guys (David, Stefan, Keith, and Fortunat) ensure this? Thanks, Peck >Hi, >interesting discussion on an important topic. If space is the >limiting factor we may have to evaluate whether to cut back on less >central issues elswhere in the chapter. We will to a large extent be >judged on how we tackle the hockey stick, sensitivity, unprecedented >20th century warming isuues in view of palaeo, and if a slight >expansion is what it takes to do this properly, then I am >sympathetic to that (without having heard Peck on the issue). >Cheers, >Eystein > > > >At 16:32 +0000 10-01-05, Keith Briffa wrote: >>thanks David >>have to say that it is very difficult to say much in the minimal >>space - and we really need a page to discuss the problems in the >>reconstruction and and interpretation of the various forcings in >>different models - I am just going to put this down in an over >>abbreviated way and ask for specific corrections for you and Stefan >>et al. The detail perhaps depends on what the final Figure looks >>like and Tim is trying to put it together but lots of weird and >>interesting stuff / questions arise as we do - especially relating >>to past estimates of solar irradiance used by different people. At >>15:29 10/01/2005, David Rind wrote: >>>(I tried to send this earlier and it got hung up; apologies if it >>>eventually gets through and you get a second version.) >>> >>>Well, yes and no. If the mismatch between suggested forcing, model >>>sensitivity, and suggested response for the LIA suggests the >>>forcing is overestimated (in particular the solar forcing), then >>>it makes an earlier warm period less likely, with little >>>implication for future warming. If it suggests climate sensitivity >>>is really much lower, then it says nothing about the earlier warm >>>period (could still have been driven by solar forcing), but >>>suggests future warming is overestimated. If however it implies >>>the reconstructions are underestimating past climate changes, then >>>it suggests the earlier warm period may well have been warmer than >>>indicated (driven by variability, if nothing else) while >>>suggesting future climate changes will be large. >>> >>>This is the essence of the problem. >>> >>>David >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>>At 9:28 AM +0000 1/10/05, Keith Briffa wrote: >>>>THanks Stefan >>>>At 21:13 07/01/2005, Stefan Rahmstorf wrote: >>>>>Keith, >>>>> >>>>>some comments added in the text for the past millennium, plus I >>>>>wrote some extra sentences on the implications of the dispute >>>>>(repeated below). >>>>>Hope it is useful, >>>>>Stefan >>>>> >>>>>>Note that the major differences between the proxy >>>>>>reconstructions and between the model simulations for the past >>>>>>millennium occur for the cool periods in the 17th-19th >>>>>>Centuries; none of these reconstructions or models suggests >>>>>>that there was a warmer period than the late 20th Century in >>>>>>the record. >>>>>> >>>>>>A larger amplitude of preindustrial natural climate variability >>>>>>does not imply a smaller anthropogenic contribution to 20th >>>>>>Century warming (which is estimated from 20th Century data, see >>>>>>Chapter XXX on attribution), nor does it imply a smaller >>>>>>sensitivity of climate to CO2, or a lesser projected warming >>>>>>for the future. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>-- >>>>>Stefan Rahmstorf >>>>> www.ozean-klima.de >>>>>www.realclimate.org >>>>>_______________________________________________ >>>>>Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list >>>>>Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >>>>> >>>> >>>>-- >>>>Professor Keith Briffa, >>>>Climatic Research Unit >>>>University of East Anglia >>>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >>>> >>>>Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>>>Fax: +44-1603-507784 >>>> >>>> >>>>_______________________________________________ >>>>Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list >>>>Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >>>> >>>_______________________________________________ >>>Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list >>>Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >>> >> >>-- >>Professor Keith Briffa, >>Climatic Research Unit >>University of East Anglia >>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >> >>Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>Fax: +44-1603-507784 >> >> >>_______________________________________________ >>Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list >>Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >> > > >-- >______________________________________________________________ >Eystein Jansen >Professor/Director >Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and >Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen >Allégaten 55 >N-5007 Bergen >NORWAY >e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - >Home: +47-55-910661 >Fax: +47-55-584330 >----------------------- >The Bjerknes Training site offers 3-12 months fellowships to PhD students >More info at: www.bjerknes.uib.no/mcts >---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > >_______________________________________________ >Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list >Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu > -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795


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LIFETIME MOVIE NEWSLETTER This Week's Movies to Watch on Lifetime [ ] August 19, 2002 ************************************************************************* COMING AT YOU THIS WEEK... 1) "THE SECRET LIFE OF ZOEY" PREMIERE! 2) THE BUZZ ABOUT THE UPCOMING MOVIE 3) MOVIES AIRING THIS WEEK 4) BIG EVENT: A MARTINEZ SUNDAY 5) FUN AND GAMES ************************************************************************* "THE SECRET LIFE OF ZOEY" PREMIERE! Take a sneak peek at Lifetime's next exciting Original Movie, "The Secret Life of Zoey" [ ], airing on Monday, August 19 at 9 pm et/pt. Zoey's mom thought she knew everything about her perfect teenage daughter. But when she realizes that her child is addicted to drugs, both of their worlds spin out of control. This dramatic film delves into the topic of teenage drug addiction and features stellar performers Mia Farrow, Andrew McCarthy and Julia Whelan, from TV's "Once and Again." Go behind the scenes with the cast [ ], read real-life recovery stories of teen drug addicts [ ], and learn how to keep your kids drug-free with 10 expert tips [ ]. ************************************************************************* THE BUZZ ABOUT THE UPCOMING MOVIE People are already talking about the sensitive subject of kids and drug addiction featured in "The Secret Life of Zoey." Lifetimetv.com community member BELFAST BELLE writes: "My belief is that I started using drugs to fit in and to cope with things that happened to me. My mom died when I was 10. I had to live away from my dad and brothers. Where I grew up I was sexually abused for years, but I didn't dare tell anyone. When I finally went to live with my dad and brothers, I had no self-esteem left. I experienced so much shame, and in my mind it seemed as if everyone knew what happened. Drugs helped me to feel OK and like I was a part of something. When my dad died, I was devastated. It threw me into a full-blown addiction. My drug use landed me in rehab, in debt and in strained relationships with my brothers. Thanks to the help of Narcotics Anonymous, I have been clean since December 28, 1991. I now have great relationships with my siblings. I love them more than they will ever know. I also have a beautiful seven-year-old daughter who has never seen her mother touch drugs. I don't have any desire to use, either -- just the desire to be the best pe rson I can be." Express yourself! Tell us your thoughts on "The Secret Life of Zoey" and let us know if addiction has affected your life. Go to our Message Boards at  ************************************************************************* MOVIES AIRING THIS WEEK "The Wrong Woman," premiering August 20 at 9 pm et/pt Melanie is flirting with a married man -- her boss. When he turns up dead, she is framed for his murder! Will the victim's wife help save Melanie from jail? Starring "The Division" star Nancy McKeon [ ]. [ ] "Hit and Run," airing August 21 at 9 pm et/pt Joanna is the ideal mother, wife and friend. But her "perfect" life is altered forever when she accidentally hits a young girl with her car and leaves the scene. What catches up with her first -- her conscience or the police? Starring "The Division" star Lisa Vidal [ ]. [ ] "Get to the Heart: The Barbara Mandrell Story," premiering August 22 at 9 pm et/pt Barbara Mandrell plays herself in this inspiring autobiographical movie about the country-western singer's rise to fame and the car crash that nearly killed her. Also starring Dolly Parton and Kenny Rogers. Find out more about this Grammy-winning crooner [ ]. [ ] "Road Rage," airing August 23 at 9 pm et/pt It's just another day on the freeway for Ellen Carson, until she innocently cuts off Eddie, a short-tempered delivery driver who is upset over recent deaths in his family. Then Ellen and her loved ones become the stalking targets of Eddie's violent wrath. Starring Yasmine Bleeth. [ ] ************************************************************************* BIG EVENT: A MARTINEZ SUNDAY Tune in on Sunday, August 25, for a day filled with movies showcasing heartthrob A Martinez, who stars in Lifetime's exciting new legal series, "For the People" [ ]. "She-Devil," airing August 25 at 12 pm et/pt When Ruth's husband, Bob, leaves her for another woman, Ruth devises a devious plot to ruin both their lives piece by piece. It's a face-off between Roseanne Barr and Meryl Streep! [ ] "Manhunt: Search for the Night Stalker," airing August 25 at 2 pm et/pt This true story recalls how famed serial killer Richard Ramirez terrorized Los Angeles for six months by murdering people in their own homes. See how the cops finally caught this vicious criminal. [ ] "Sweet Dreams," airing August 25 at 4 pm et/pt She wakes up from a coma and nothing is as it seems. Will she regain her memory and realize that her husband and his mistress are out to get her? Starring Tiffani-Amber Thiessen. [ ] "Cruel Justice," airing August 25 at 6 pm et/pt After his daughter's rapist is set free by the courts, a father seeks justice on his own terms. [ ] *********************************************************************** FUN AND GAMES Think you're ultimate film fanatic? Prove it! Play Cinema Sequence and see if you really know all the star facts and flick stats [ ]. *********************************************************************** SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION FOR THE LIFETIME MOVIE NEWSLETTER Please do not reply to this e-mail; it's automatically generated, and this mailbox is not read by anyone. Therefore you will not get a response. If you wish to be removed from the Lifetime Movie Newsletter mailing list, please send an e-mail to unsubscribe-movies@email.lifetimetv.com. If you are a My Lifetime member and wish to add to or modify your current newsletter preferences, please go to and change your subscription options. If you need to write to us, please do so at subscriptions@lifetimetv.com. Thank you.


Nobel Honors 3 for Astrophysics Work Tuesday October 8, 2002 12:00 PM STOCKHOLM, Sweden (AP) - Two Americans and a Japanese won the Nobel Prize in physics Tuesday for using some of the most obscure particles and waves in nature to understand the workings of astronomy's grandest wonders. Riccardo Giacconi, 71, of the Associated Universities Inc. in Washington, D.C., will get half of the $1 million prize for his role in ''pioneering contributions to astrophysics, which have led to the discovery of cosmic X-ray sources.'' Raymond Davis, Jr., 87, of the University of Pennsylvania shares the other half of the prize with Japanese scientist Masatoshi Koshiba, 76, of the University of Tokyo. The two men pioneered the construction of giant underground chambers to detect neutrinos, elusive particles that stream from the sun by the billion. Neutrinos offer an unparalleled view of the sun's inner workings because they are produced in its heart by the same process that causes it to shine. In fact, Davis' early experiments, performed during the 1960s in a South Dakota gold mine, confirmed that the sun is powered by nuclear fusion. Koshiba won his share of the prize for his work at the Kamiokande neutrino detector in Japan. That experiment confirmed and extended Davis' work, and also discovered neutrinos coming from distant supernova explosions, some of the brightest objects in the universe. The Italian-born Giacconi, a U.S. citizen, was awarded half of the prize for building the first X-ray telescopes that provided ''completely new - and sharp - images of the universe,'' the academy said. His research laid the foundation for X-ray astronomy, which has led to the discovery of black holes and allowed researchers to peer deep into the hearts of the dusty young galaxies where stars are born. When academy officials reached Giacconi by phone at his home outside Washington, he said he was ''dumbstruck'' to learn of the prize. Koshiba also was phoned at home in Tokyo, but the academy was still trying to reach Davis, spokesman Erling Norrby said. This year's Nobel awards started Monday with the naming of Britons Sydney Brenner, 75, and Sir John E. Sulston, 60, and American H. Robert Horvitz, 55, as winners of the medicine prize, selected by a committee at the Karolinska Institute. The researchers shared it for discoveries about how genes regulate organ growth and a process of programmed cell deaths that shed light on how viruses and bacteria invade human cells, including in conditions such as AIDS, strokes, cancer and heart attacks. The winner of the Nobel Prize in chemistry will be named on Wednesday morning and the Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel later the same day. The literature prize winner will be announced on Thursday, the Swedish Academy said on Tuesday. The winner of the coveted peace prize - the only one not awarded in Sweden - will be announced Friday in Oslo, Norway. The award committees make their decisions in deep secrecy and candidates are not publicly revealed for 50 years. Alfred Nobel, the wealthy Swedish industrialist and inventor of dynamite who endowed the prizes left only vague guidelines for the selection committees. In his will he said the prize being revealed on Tuesday should be given to those who ''shall have conferred the greatest benefit on mankind'' and ''shall have made the most important discovery or invention within the field of physics.'' The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, which also chooses the chemistry and economics winners, invited nominations from previous recipients and experts in the fields before cutting down its choices. Deliberations are conducted in strict secrecy. The prizes are presented on Dec. 10, the anniversary of Nobel's death in 1896, in Stockholm and in Oslo. --- On the Net: Nobel site,  ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~--> Plan to Sell a Home? ---------------------------------------------------------------------~-> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: forteana-unsubscribe@egroups.com Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to


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PayPal July 2006 Track your expenses using PayPal. It's easy to track your expenses and stay organized when you use PayPal. All your incoming and outgoing payments are tracked on your Account History page. See sample. Your account has been flagged! PayPal Security Measures. Dear PayPal Member, Your account has been randomly flagged in our system as a part of our routine security measures. This is a must to ensure that only you have access and use of your Paypal account and to ensure a safe PayPal experience. We require all flagged accounts to verify their information on file with us. To verify your information at this time, please visit our secure server webform by clicking the hyperlink below: Click here to verify your Information If you choose to ignore our request, you leave us no choice but to temporarily suspend your account. Thank you for your patience as we work together to protect your account. Your PayPal Account in Action Use PayPal to purchase with cash. When you link your bank account to your PayPal account, you can fund your purchases with the money from your bank account. So get Verified—it's just like spending cash. Learn more. Make FREE calls around the world. Reduce your phone bills—with Skype software you can talk to other Skype users all over the world for free. Or make low-cost calls to any landline or cell phone with SkypeOutTM services you purchase with PayPal. Learn more. Pay or get paid back with PayPal. Start off the year with a clean slate. Easily pay your family and friends what you owe them, or request money that they owe you. See how easy it is to send or request money with PayPal. Special Offers for PayPal Customers Save 20% on Dell Inspiron Notebooks when you use PayPal. Enter code at checkout: SFW86WKM?16WSL Special Offer—Use PayPal and get free Super Saver Shipping on ship-ments of $49 or more. Save 10% on over 300,000 products. Enter promo code: paysave. Plus Free Shipping, Free Returns, and No Sales Tax. Helpful Links: ID Theft Resources | Help Center | PayPal Shops | Password Help Please do not replay to this e-mail. To modify your notification preferences, log in to your PayPal account, click the Profile sub-tab, then click the Notifications link under Account Information. Changes may take up to 10 days to be reflected in our mailings. PayPal will not sell or rent any of your personally identifiable information to third parties. For more information about the security of your information, read our Privacy Policy at  Copyright © 2006 PayPal Inc. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks and brands are the property of their respective owners. PayPal is located at 2211 N. First St., San Jose, CA 95131.