Robert Harley writes: > >OK, then. Consider a population of 1,000,000. 500,000 men each > >pair off with 500,000 women. Then, 1 man, let's call him "Wilt", > >also has sex with the other 499,999 women > > This has never happened. Its relevance is nil. It was a extreme contrived example because you glosded over the point of the earlier 3-person example. But OK, Mr Math, let it be N men and women, for any N>2. They all pair off. Then, some number H, N>H>0, of men has sex with all the other N-1 women he hasn't yet had sex with. Pick any N and H that might be interesting. Any choice of values results in meaningful differences between the sexes' "promiscuity", as commonly understood. It should be more obvious with extreme choices of numbers, but it is also true for any choice of N and H, if unrealistic totals distract you. Further, and I was hoping this would be clear without saying so outright, this model actually approximates the cliche "common wisdom" about per-gender sexual behavior, if you reverse the male and female roles. Those stereotypes are: that more men than women seek multiple partners -- men being "more promiscuous" than women -- and that surplus of male interest is satisfied by a smaller number of hyperpromiscuous women (often derisively labelled "sluts"). > So I chose not to type "on average" explicitly in my post, since this > is FoRK and one tends to assume that people have a clue. > > There is no disagreement between us, except that I am more interested > in typical behaviour and you in extreme. Nope, now you've amended the meaning of your initial statement to make it more defensible. What I objected to was: Robert Harley: # >The assumption that females of all species tend to be less promiscuous # >than males simply does not fit the facts, Hrdy contended. # # Well, DUH!!! # # It is perfectly obvious that (heterosexual) promiscuity is exactly, # precisely identical between males and females. # # Of course the shapes of the distributions may differ. If you assumed people on FoRK had a clue, would you have needed to jump in with a patronizing "DUH!!"? If you were talking about fuzzy, typical behavior, would you have huffed and puffed with the words "perfectly obvious" and "exactly, precisely identical"? If your concern was with the "typical", why didn't you adopt the typical definition of "promiscuous", rather than a straw-man definition which allowed you to interject "DUH!!" and mock an anthrolopology professor's conclusions? > Actually, you probably just > had a bad day and felt like jumping down my throat for the hell of it. You are welcome to that theory! But here's an alternate theory: when you jump in with a patronizing and overblown pronouncement -- e.g. "DUH!!... perfectly obvious... exactly, precisely identical..." -- and that pronouncement is itself sloppy and erroneous, then others may get a kick out of popping your balloon. - Gordon


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Jordan- I am coming to DC next week and was wondering if you would be willing to have a coffee with me to discuss some career stuff. I would love to be able to hear more about the DNC and what you do. Lucy has been very kind to me in trying to hook me up with people who may be able to help. Thanks so much in advance! Best, Allie Tallering > On Apr 26, 2016, at 4:56 PM, Lucy wrote: > > Allie meet dear friend, former Chicagoan and DNC Finance Director Jordan Kaplan. Jordan meet Allie, a Chicagoan just about to graduate from Duke. Allie worked for Ready for Hillary and is looking to live the democratic political dream in DC or NYC after graduation. If you two can meet some time soon that would be amazing. > > I will let you take it from here. > > All the Best- > > Lucy > > > Sent from my iPhone > >


Hi Keith, here is the submitted comment by Tapio Schneider, attached. Please do not pass along or show to others. Thanks in advance, mike Keith Briffa wrote: > Hi Mike > thanks for these comments and especially thanks for your remarks on > the effort of trying to produce a balanced picture of the current > state of things in the IPCC Chapter 6. In fact , I know that it is > already out of date and I am going to get particularly lambasted for > not discussing problems with recent tree responses to warming and > potential problems wit CO2 fertilization - I may have to add even more > text yet .You are absolutely correct that we had unreasonable trouble > from Susan , who was not as "hands off" as she might have been. I will > certainly study your comments carefully - as I always do . I would > rather reserve comment on the Crowley reconstruction til I speak > personally to you. I really hope that we can get an atmosphere of > constructive discussion that , I believe, must include some discussion > of the sceptics . Look forward to those drinks and some time away from > the mad house of teaching/exam marking etc. See you soon > > best wishes > Keith > > At 18:08 24/05/2006, you wrote: > >> Hi Keith, >> >> I wanted you to have an advance copy of the comments I'll be >> submitting on the final draft of the AR4. I commend you for the >> excellent work you've done and the tough battle I know you have had >> to fight. I don't envy it, and you know the tough battles I've been >> through. >> >> Confidentially, I do have a number of specific concerns mostly in >> the area of discussions of where things actually now stand in terms >> of some of the earlier criticisms. I believe that the discussion is >> still out of date, given what has been shown in recent publications, >> including Wahl and Ammann (Science). Also, and I don't think this is >> the only place you're going to hear this from, there are deep >> problems w/ Hegerl et al '06, particularly the claims of what TLS can >> do, which are egregiously incorrect. There is a comment in review in >> Nature (not me, but I can promise you, by someone who understands the >> statistical issues involved better than anyone else in our community) >> that is very critical. I think its unwise for the TAR to >> uncritically accept the claims made, particularly given that the >> actual J. Climate paper was in limbo at least at the time the most >> recent draft was finalized. I believe that disqualifies it for >> consideration for AR4, no? >> >> Also, I think it is an absolute travesty that figure 6.10 isn't being >> shown in the SPM. I think that is unforgiveable, and there should be >> an effort to over-ride that decision (I would suspect that is Susan >> Solomon's doing?), >> >> I hope we can discuss these things (and much else) over a few beers >> in Switzerland. Looking forward to seeing you soon, >> >> mike >> >> -- >> Michael E. Mann >> Associate Professor >> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) >> >> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 >> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 >> The Pennsylvania State University email: >> mann@psu.edu >> University Park, PA 16802-5013 >> >> >> >> > > -- > Professor Keith Briffa, > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > Phone: +44-1603-593909 > Fax: +44-1603-507784 > >  -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\hegerl06_comment.pdf"


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Dear all Here's another MWE reference, originally announced by the Idso's. I looked up the abstract from the South African Journal of Science and here's its URL That puts the MWE and LIA into South Africa. Cheers John D. -- John L. Daly "Still Waiting For Greenhouse" ~daly "All science is numbers, but not all numbers is science"


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Scott, Could you please move the following deals from Tom Donohoe's desk to the Upstream desk for June forward and enter corresponding desk to desk tickets? However, on the gas daily desk to desk, can we please aggregate all the volumes and enter just one desk to desk at the ANR pool? If you have any questions regarding this please feel free to ask either myself, George or Charlie. It would be great, if you could get this done before tomorrow. 749363 312114 749065 340337 340382 340387 706080 751703 Thanks, Kathy


Interesting that Antonio R. doesn't (or at least claims not to) recognize a lack of balance in the article. Please treat this email as confidential. I don't believe that sending a letter to the editor myself would be the best avenue. But perhaps someone else is interested in pursuing this? Mike Subject: RE: WSJ article Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 17:43:10 -0500 X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: WSJ article Thread-Index: AcUUaIg6ON4Ck5ANQ2OfoGmU0QNsvAAAEqMA From: "Regalado, Antonio" To: "Michael E. Mann" X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Feb 2005 22:43:10.0610 (UTC) FILETIME=[E423A720:01C51478] X-UVA-Virus-Scanned: by amavisd-new at fork11.mail.virginia.edu Hi Mike, On the personal stuff, Id go with your first impressions, rather than the perceptions of others. This isnt a one-sided story. Anyway, I certainly want to find out who is right here and so I am open to writing more as the papers come out and the facts become clearer, just as I have written in the past about the Soon and Balliunias business (p. A3not bad) and about paleo-climate (p. 1 story in 2002 about Gary Comers funding, feature story on Lonnie Thompsons melting glaciers), etc. Would it surprise you to hear that anytime I write a story which seems to favor global warming I am also deluged by accusations of bias and demands for corrections etc.? Regarding Moberg, I think the issue you are raising is a question of emphasis and not a matter for a correction. The specific sentences youre thinking of (Indeed, new research from Stockholm University on historical temperatures suggests past fluctuations were nearly twice as great as the hockey stick shows. That could mean the 20th-century jump isn't quite so anomalous. ) seem to me be not only factual but precisely to the point of what the mainstream of science is discussing vis a vis MBH, which was the topic of that part of my story. For instance, in the Anderson/Woodhouse commentary that accompanied Moberg in the same issue of Nature, they too stress the increased variability just as I did and they make no mention of the late 1990s. And as per my email Monday, my article does also say that other reconstructions also indicate that the 20^th Century was unusually warm and that the punch line is the same. Im sure youre fully sick of writing letters, but this may be right opportunity for a letter to the editor from you or someone who you can second. The person to send a letter to is [1]Karen.Pensiero@wsj.com. If you want, CC: me and my editor, [2]Elyse.tanouye@wsj.com. Or even an editorial on the broader topic of where the science is at. I can give you the name for who to send an editorial to if you want it. It is probably worth pointing out that no amount of debate can change the facts buried in those tree rings, etc.. Yes, I will continue to write about climate. The next topic is impacts. What do you think is the best story there? Id like to write about current impacts rather than only projected ones as these will be more tangible for the reader. Also, since the Arctic has been well covered Id be interested in impacts at lower latitudes. Antonio ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3] References 1. mailto:Karen.Pensiero@wsj.com 2. mailto:Elyse.tanouye@wsj.com 3.


Attached are the definitions NNG has been using for the 2002 Plan (Contracted, Uncontracted, Identified Stretch, Unidentified Stretch) Let me know if you need to discuss.


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Gabe said he'd be there. Alex wasn't certain. They both have your email and cell. Mark Paustenbach National Press Secretary & Deputy Communications Director Democratic National Committee W: 202.863.8148 paustenbachm@dnc.org -----Original Message----- From: Miranda, Luis Sent: Friday, May 20, 2016 12:44 PM To: Banfill, Ryan; Paustenbach, Mark Cc: April Mellody; Wartel, Jonae Subject: RE: Chair is asking about press We know that Alex Seitz Wald at NBC News/MSNBC and Gabe Debenedetti at Politico were both interested. But it's not our event so we don't know. Copying April Mellody who might have more info and Jonae at ASDC. ________________________________________ From: Banfill, Ryan Sent: Friday, May 20, 2016 12:29 PM To: Miranda, Luis; Paustenbach, Mark Subject: Chair is asking about press Who is expected media wise in Philly this afternoon? Thanks, Ryan Sent from my iPad


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---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Michael Bostic Date: Tue, Sep 9, 2008 at 11:21 PM Subject: a few questions To: "commander@newsaxon.org" My name is Michael. I have a few questions on white supremacy groups. I am 18, and have grown up in the DEEP south for the last couple of years. I am a white male, who tries to treat everyone properly. Growing up there, i have noticed that blacks think they own everything! And i mean every thing there is. I don't understand why they get to have BET (Black Entertainment Television?) black history museums, and black history month! the movie American History X sums my views up well. why can't whites have that? Oh yeah, because we would be racist! Heaven Forbid the Fuckin white man have something. Why should this country have a special set of rules for the Blacks, Mexicans, and Jews and so forth. I hate that the whites can't have anything, but the illegals and blacks have everything. they sell drugs, live off welfare and Foodstamps, but live better than people who work hard like me. I have a daughter due next month, and i can't any help....they say we make to much. my fiancee is a waitress, and i work at a grocery store, making 7.25 an hour. how the fuck is that to much? Please help me understand how the government lets this happen? why should have to work hard to have my taxes go to taking care and feeding their black asses, but i don't even have enough for a fuckin happy meal after i pay MY bills. Please respond, Michael -- Commander Jeff Schoep "If you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem." National Socialist Movement www.nsm88.org The information in this email is confidential and may be legally privileged. Furthermore, the NSM is not responsible for the content of this e-mail, and anything written in this e-mail does not necessarily reflect the NSM's views or opinions. Access to this email by anyone other than the intended addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient of this message, any review, disclosure, copying, distribution, retention, or any action taken or omitted to be taken in reliance on it is prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this mail in error, please destroy the copy in your possession and notify: commander@newsaxon.org


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On Wed, 18 Sep 2002, Tom wrote: > The others are on mailing list only status for now. A few of the > groups I was in that are run by others are harder to deal with since > many folks just dont want to have to deal with the inconvienence of a > understanding. I've terminated a number of my own mailing lists at yahoogroups many months ago because of similiar sentiments. I've tried lobbying other people to move, but with about zero success. I've got currently only one own mailing list there, which I'm going to move as soon as it is technically possible (which is my ISP's problem, basically). After that, I intend to kick yahoogroups for good.


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now w don lemon Sent from my iPhone


Dear Phil, I looked at some of the stuff on the Climate Audit web site. I'd really like to talk to a few of these "Auditors" in a dark alley. They seem to have no understanding of how science is actually done - no appreciation of the fact that uncertainty is an integral part of what we do. Once again, just let me know how I can help.... It will be good to see you in Exeter. I'm looking forward to that. I'll have two nights in London after the meeting, and am hoping to spend some time wandering around the British Museum. I met a very nice lady (Stephanie) while I was giving a series of climate change lectures in Puerto Rico back in January. She's a Professor at the University of San Francisco, and (fortuitously), specializes in the policy implications of climate change, risk assessment, etc. She also likes hiking and climbing. It's fun to "have a life" again (as they say over here). Best wishes to you and Ruth, Ben P.Jones@uea.ac.uk wrote: > Ben, > Thanks for the thoughts. I'm in Geneva at the moment, > so have a bit of time to think. Possibly I'll > get the raw data from GHCN and do some work to replace > our adjusted data with these, then make the Raw > (i.e. as transmitted by the NMSs). This will annoy them > more, so may inflame the situation. > > Got some ideas/thoughts from Mike, Kevin and Gavin Schmidt. > > Some of the stuff on the Climat Audit web site is awful. > > Will also be talking to someone at UEA, is they have > anything useful to say. > > Also talking to Wei-Chyung about how he'll respond. > > I will be in Exeter. Get back from Tarragona on the > Weds am, so should be there for dinner on the first day. > > Lots of odd things going on at the HC by the way. > > See you in Exeter. > > Cheers > Phil > > >> Dear Phil, >> >> Sorry about the delay in replying to your email - I've been out of my >> office for a few days. >> >> This is really nasty stuff, and I'm sorry that it's happened to you. The >> irony in this is that you are one of the most careful and thorough >> scientists I know. >> >> Keenan's allegations of research misconduct, although malicious and >> completely unfounded, clearly require some response. The bottom line is >> that there are uncertainties inherent in measuring ANY properties of the >> real-world climate system. You've probably delved deeper than anyone >> else on the planet into uncertainties in observed surface temperature >> records. This would be well worth pointing out to Mr. Keenan. The whole >> tenor of the web-site stuff and Keenan's garbage is that these folks are >> scrupulously careful data analysts, and you are not. They conveniently >> ignore all the pioneering work that you've done on identification of >> inhomogeneities in surface temperature records. The response should >> mention that you've spent much of your scientific career trying to >> quantify the effects of such inhomogeneities, changing spatial coverage, >> etc. on observed estimates of global-scale surface temperature change. >> >> The bottom line here is that observational data are frequently "messy". >> They are not the neat, tidy beasts Mr. Keenan would like them to be. >> This holds not only for surface temperature measurements. It also holds >> - in spades - for measurements of tropospheric temperature from MSU and >> radiosondes, and for measurements of ocean temperatures from XBTs, >> profiling floats, etc. We would like observing systems to be more >> accurate, more stable, and better-suited for monitoring decadal-scale >> changes in climate. You and Kevin and many other are actively working >> towards that goal. The key message here is that, despite uncertainties >> in the surface temperature record - uncertainties which you and others >> in the field are well aware of, and have worked hard to quantify - it is >> now unequivocal that surface temperatures have warmed markedly over the >> past 100 years. Uncertainties in the station histories do not negate >> this basic message. >> >> Hope some of these random musings might be useful, Phil. Let me know if >> there's anything else I can do to help. Will you be at the Hadley Centre >> Science Review Group meeting in May? >> >> With best regards, >> >> Ben >> >> P.Jones@uea.ac.uk wrote: >>> All, >>> Thanks for the thoughts. I'll muse on them whilst >>> away. I've decided to ignore the blogs, but will wait >>> till I hear from Wei-Chyung when he's back. There is >>> no point yet in my responding to Keenan till Wei-Chyung >>> hears. >>> I'm away much of the next 3 weeks, so I won't be >>> responding quickly. I'll be noting down some points >>> for a possible response, so anything I'll do will >>> be considered rather than my usual quick responses. >>> The unequivocal statement in the SPM will be clear >>> in any response. >>> The whole tone of their argument smacks of a last >>> resort challenge. 2007 continues warm for the first >>> 3 months. >>> >>> Cheers >>> Phil >>> >>>> I agree on the blogs: I have refrained from any responses to the >>>> attacks >>>> on me wrt hurricanes etc. >>>> K >>>> >>>> >>>>> I don't disagree w/ Kevin's points here, but I do think it is >>>>> dangerous to respond to an accusation made on a blog (a dubious >>>>> one at that). It sets a bad precedent. On the other hand, since >>>>> the letter to Wang was copied to you, I guess it is legitimate for >>>>> you to respond to that. but very carefully as Kevin points out, >>>>> >>>>> mike >>>>> >>>>> Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi Phil I am sure you know that this is not >>>>> about the science. It is an attack to undermine the science in some >>>>> way. >>>>> In that regard I don't think you can ignore it all, as Mike suggests >>>>> as >>>>> one option, but the response should try to somehow label these guys >>>>> and >>>>> lazy and incompetent and unable to do the huge amount of work it takes >>>>> to >>>>> construct such a database. Indeed technology and data handling >>>>> capabilities have evolved and not everything was saved. So my feeble >>>>> suggestion is to indeed cast aspersions on their motives and throw in >>>>> some counter rhetoric. Labeling them as lazy with nothng better to do >>>>> seems like a good thing to do. How about "I tried to get some data >>>>> from >>>>> McIntyre from his 1990 paper, but I was unable because he doesn't have >>>>> such a paper because he has not done any constructive work!" There is >>>>> no >>>>> basis for retracting a paper given in Keenan's message. One may have >>>>> to >>>>> offer a correction that a particular sentence was not correct if it >>>>> claimed something that indeed was not so. But some old instrumental >>>>> data >>>>> are like paleo data, and can only be used with caution as the metadata >>>>> do >>>>> not exist. It doesn't mean they are worthless and can not be used. >>>>> Offering to make a correction to a few words in a paper in a trivial >>>>> manner will undermine his case. Kevin Hi Phil, This is >>>>> all >>>>> too predictable. This crowd of charlatans is always looking for one >>>>> thing >>>>> they can harp on, where people w/ little knowledge of the facts might >>>>> be >>>>> able to be convinced that there is a controversy. They can't take on >>>>> the >>>>> whole of the science, so they look for one little thing they can say >>>>> is >>>>> wrong, and thus generalize that the science is entirely compromised. >>>>> Of >>>>> course, as nicely shown in the SPM, every landmass is independently >>>>> warming, and much as the models predict. So they can harp all they >>>>> want >>>>> on one Chinese data set, it couldn't possibly change the big picture >>>>> (let >>>>> alone even the trends for China). The So they are simply hoping to >>>>> blow >>>>> this up to something that looks like a legitimate controversy. The >>>>> last >>>>> thing you want to do is help them by feeding the fire. Best thing is >>>>> to >>>>> ignore them completely. They no longer have their friends in power >>>>> here >>>>> in the U.S., and the media has become entirely unsympathetic to the >>>>> rants >>>>> of the contrarians at least in the U.S.--the Wall Street Journal >>>>> editorial page are about the only place they can broadcast their >>>>> disinformation. So in other words, for contrarians the environment >>>>> appears to have become very unfavorable for development. I would >>>>> advise >>>>> Wang the same way. Keenan may or may not be bluffing, but if he tries >>>>> this I believe that British law would make it easy for Wang to win a >>>>> defamation suit against him (the burden is much tougher in the >>>>> states), >>>>> mike Phil Jones wrote: Kevin, Have a look at >>>>> this >>>>> web site. I see you're away. The websites can wait, but scroll down >>>>> to >>>>> the letter below from Keenan - the last sentence. >>>>> #comments and >>>>> #more-1479 One is about data from >>>>> a >>>>> paper 17 years ago (Jones et al. 1990) Also there is this email >>>>> (below) >>>>> sent to Wei-Chyung Wang, who was one of the co-authors on the 1990 >>>>> paper. Wei-Chyung is in China, and may not yet have seen this. When >>>>> he's >>>>> back in Albany, I've suggested he talks to someone there. It is all >>>>> malicious. I've cc'd this to Ben and Mike as well, to get any >>>>> thoughts >>>>> from their experiences. If it gets worse I will bring Susan in as >>>>> well, >>>>> but I'm talking to some people at UEA first. Susan has enough to do >>>>> with getting the AR4 WG1 volume out. On the 1990 paper, I have put >>>>> the >>>>> locations and the data for the rural stations used in the paper on >>>>> the >>>>> CRU website. All the language is about me not being able to send them >>>>> the station data used for the grids (as used in 1990!). I don't have >>>>> this information, as we have much more data now (much more in >>>>> Australia >>>>> and China than then) and probably more stations in western USSR are >>>>> as >>>>> well. As for the other request, I don't have the information on the >>>>> sources of all the sites used in the CRUTEM3 database. We are adding >>>>> in >>>>> new datasets regularly (all of NZ from Jim Renwick recently) , but we >>>>> don't keep a source code for each station. Almost all sites have >>>>> multiple sources and only a few sites have single sources. I know >>>>> things >>>>> roughly by country and could reconstruct it, but it would take a >>>>> while. >>>>> GHCN and NCAR don't have source codes either. It does all come from >>>>> the >>>>> NMSs - well mostly, but some from scientists. A lot of the issues >>>>> are >>>>> in various papers, but they never read these. Also certainly no use >>>>> talking to them. In Geneva all week. David Parker and Tom Peterson >>>>> will be there. I can live with the web site abuse, but the Keenan >>>>> letter knocked me back a bit. I seem to be the marked man now ! >>>>> Cheers Phil From: "D.J. Keenan" To: "Wei-Chyung Wang" Cc: >>>>> "Phil >>>>> Jones" Subject: retraction request Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2007 13:31:15 >>>>> +0100 >>>>> X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2900.3028 X-UEA-Spam-Score: >>>>> 0.0 >>>>> X-UEA-Spam-Level: / X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO Dear Dr. Wang, Regarding the >>>>> Chinese meteorological data analyzed by Wang et al. [GRL, 1990] and >>>>> Jones >>>>> et al. [Nature, 1990], it now seems clear that there are severe >>>>> problems. >>>>> In particular, the data was obtained from 84 meteorological stations >>>>> that can be classified as follows. 49 have no histories 08 have >>>>> inconsistent histories 18 have substantial relocations 02 have >>>>> single-year relocations 07 have no relocations Furthermore, some of >>>>> the relocations are very distant--over 20 km. Others are to greatly >>>>> different environments, as illustrated here: >>>>> #comment-102970 The above >>>>> contradicts >>>>> the published claim to have considered the histories of the stations, >>>>> especially for the 49 stations that have no histories. Yet the claim >>>>> is >>>>> crucial for the research conclusions. I e-mailed you about this on >>>>> April >>>>> 11th. I also phoned you on April 13th: you said that you were in a >>>>> meeting and would get back to me. I have received no response. I ask >>>>> you to retract your GRL paper, in full, and to retract the claims made >>>>> in >>>>> Nature about the Chinese data. If you do not do so, I intend to >>>>> publicly >>>>> submit an allegation of research misconduct to your university at >>>>> Albany. >>>>> Douglas J. Keenan phone + 44 20 7537 4122 >>>>> The >>>>> Limehouse Cut, London E14 6N, UK Prof. Phil Jones Climatic >>>>> Research >>>>> Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental >>>>> Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich >>>>> Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK >>>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>>>> -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, >>>>> Earth >>>>> System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology >>>>> Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: >>>>> (814) >>>>> 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu >>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013 >>>>>  >>>>> ___________________ Kevin Trenberth Climate Analysis Section, NCAR PO >>>>> Box >>>>> 3000 Boulder CO 80307 ph 303 497 1318 >>>>>  >>>>> >>>>> -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System >>>>> Science >>>>> Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) >>>>> 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 >>>>> The >>>>> Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University >>>>> Park, >>>>> PA 16802-5013  >>>> ___________________ >>>> Kevin Trenberth >>>> Climate Analysis Section, NCAR >>>> PO Box 3000 >>>> Boulder CO 80307 >>>> ph 303 497 1318 >>>>  >>>> >> >> -- >> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >> Benjamin D. Santer >> Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison >> Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory >> P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103 >> Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A. >> Tel: (925) 422-2486 >> FAX: (925) 422-7675 >> email: santer1@llnl.gov >> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >> > -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Benjamin D. Santer Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103 Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A. Tel: (925) 422-2486 FAX: (925) 422-7675 email: santer1@llnl.gov ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


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Stepan I have just returned from a week at a PAGES meeting in Switzerland. I presented the Yamal and Taimyr chronologies along with our recent analyses of the spatial patterns of variability in the northern network and the pressure and temperature interpretation of the patterns. All of this was well received. As for you questions, it is very short notice to consider getting a well organised proposal together. My answers to your specific questions are 1. Such work would not necessarily be contrary to our current and future plans but there is undoubtedly a potential overlap and possible problem in distinquishing tasks and outputs. The next EC proposal must be clearly separate and I would be concerned if the potential referees asked what was the clear difference. 2. I have no experience ( and presumably neither has anyone else as this is a new initiative) but I think the chances would depend on the degree of synthesis involved in the work and possibly how extensive the overall scope of the work is and also maybe who the U.S. collaborator is. I think your chance would be better as part of a large project , somewhat as we envisage for the next EC application. This is my opinion only and it may , of course, be wrong. 3.I see nothing preventing an application from your laboratory alone . If you do put in an application I wolud hope it made clear our ongoing collaboration. If you went for a collaborator in the U.S. the obvious person is Gordon Jacoby. I do not know if he is already submitting but I would think so. Please let me know what you decide . I will be phoning Gordon anyway to ask him about future collaboration on the EC front. I will keep you informed on that. very best wishes Keith At 05:18 PM 9/6/99 +0500, you wrote: >Dear Keith, >Some days ago we have got "JOINT ANNOUNCEMENT OF >OPPORTUNITY" from International Arctic Research Center and Cooperative >Institute for Arctic Research University of Alaska Fairbanks. The >general theme is Global Change Research in the Arctic (full text with >description is attached bellow). As we have read Research Themes from >announcement they seem to be very congenial to our laboratory. What do >you think about this? Is there point in submitting proposal to IARC >and CIFAR at the University of Alaska Fairbanks? Research theme would >be 5,000 year summer air temperature reconstruction from tree rings >and impacts and consequences of global climate change on forest >ecosystems in the Polar Ural and Yamal Peninsula (Subarctic regions of >Russia). >We have no wide experience to submit proposal to any foreign >administration. We need in some advice. Could you give us a piece of >good advice how to do this well. >The questions are: >1. We are not sure whether this action and theme is contrary to our >future cooperative work? >2. If not, how big our chance to get award? >3. Could we submit a proposal from our Institute only without U.S. >partner? (Proposals from foreign institutions should preferably have a >U.S. partner. See description bellow). If U.S. partner should be, who >in your opinion would be? > >Best regards. >Stepan. > >From: ArcticInfo > >To: arcticinfo@arcus.org >Subject: IARC Announcement of Opportunity >For more information on these research >opportunities contact: >Professor Syun Akasofu, Director, IARC, Phone: 907/474-6012, >Fax: 907/474-5662, or E-mail: sakasofu@iarc.uaf.edu. > >RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES >JOINT ANNOUNCEMENT OF OPPORTUNITY >International Arctic Research Center and Cooperative Institute for >Arctic Research University of Alaska Fairbanks >Global Change Research in the Arctic > >INTRODUCTION >Proposals are invited on topics of global change and its >effects in the Arctic (detection; interactions and feedbacks; >paleoclimates, arctic haze, ozone and UV; contaminants; impacts and >consequences of change). The proposal deadline is 1 October 1999 and >awards will be made in January 2000. >DESCRIPTION >The International Arctic Research Center (IARC) and the Cooperative >Institute for Arctic >Research (CIFAR) at the University of Alaska Fairbanks announce the >availability of funding for global change research in the Arctic. The >IARC is a new international research center at the University of >Alaska Fairbanks, established jointly with Japan. The mission of the >IARC is to provide an environment that will nurture multidisciplinary >research by integrating and synthesizing past, present, and future >studies in global change. >CIFAR is the NOAA-UAF Cooperative Institute >for Arctic Research; it is combining the resources of its Arctic >Research Initiative (ARI) with those of IARC under this announcement. >The goal is to develop a focal point for a pan-Arctic synthesis of >global change in which researchers from many different institutions >throughout the United States and the rest of the world participate to >combine their research results. Further details on IARC can be found >on its web page at and on CIFAR at > > >Proposals may be submitted from U.S. or >foreign institutions that address studies on any of the following >themes drawn from the IARC Science Plan and the CIFAR Arctic Research >Initiative. Proposals from foreign institutions should preferably have >a U.S. partner. The starting date for proposed work should be 1 >January 2000, with a duration of up to 24 months. Funding for the >second year will be contingent on the availability of additional >funds, therefore each proposal should have a clear, achievable >objective for the first year's work. >RESEARCH THEMES >1. Detection of >contemporary climate change in the Arctic by ground observations, >remote sensing and climate "fingerprinting". >2. Arctic paleoclimatic >reconstructions from ice cores, tree rings, permafrost, lake and ocean >sediments. >3. Atmosphere-ice-land-ocean interactions and feedbacks in >the Arctic that affect change, including observations and modeling. >4. Arctic atmospheric chemistry, arctic haze, ozone and UV radiation and >their effects. >5. Impacts and consequences of global climate change, >including effects on biota and ecosystems in the Arctic. >6. Contaminant sources, transport pathways, and exposure to higher >trophic levels and humans in the Arctic. > >It is planned to fund several >large projects and a number of medium ($100K) or smaller projects. >Proposals must include the full cost of logistics support required. A >total of about $ 4.5M is available in year 1 for this Announcement of >Opportunity. >Proposals can request support for the following: >*Research on any of the above six themes. Proposals that add value to >ongoing research projects, or that share costs with other funded >investigators, are encouraged. >* Conducting workshops at the IARC to >further define priorities or synthesize available information on any >of the research themes listed above, or any theme from the IARC >Science Plan. >* Visiting scientists, for short- or longer-term visits, >to the IARC in Fairbanks. >* Development of generally useful curricula >and courses in global change, or conducting global change outreach and >educational activities. >* U.S. participation in the work of the Arctic >Council and its AMAP, CAFF, or PAME working groups. > >All proposers >should meet the following conditions: >* PIs must attend an annual >synthesis meeting of all IARC/CIFAR investigators in Fairbanks at >which research results will be presented and working groups will >synthesize results. Proposal budgets should include travel to >Fairbanks. >* All activities will be required to acknowledge the >financial support from IARC and CIFAR in reports, papers, >dissertations, etc. >* Progress reports are due from all funded >projects on 1 August 2000. >* Copies of all publications resulting from >funded projects are to be provided to IARC/CIFAR. > >Proposals should not >exceed 15 pages in text and illustrations, not counting CVs, budget >page, and appendices. Further details on proposal preparation are >attached below as an appendix. > >Review criteria for research proposals are: >* Does the proposal address the research themes listed above? >*Does it propose high-quality research? >* Does it advance the NOAA mission? >* Is the PI (or are the PIs) well qualified to do the >research? >* Can the research be done in a timely manner? >* Is it likely to lead to significant results? >* Is it likely to contribute to >a synthesis of research results on global change? > >Proposals must be >received by 1 October 1999. All proposals will be reviewed by a >scientific peer review panel of prominent researchers that will advise >a program management team drawn from NOAA, IARC, and CIFAR. Funds will >be available in early 2000. Please submit proposals (originals and 10 >copies) to the address below. Further information can also be obtained >from the same office. >Professor Syun Akasofu, Director >International Arctic Research Center >University of Alaska Fairbanks >930 North Koyukuk Drive >P. O. Box 757340 >Fairbanks, AK 99775-7340 >Tel 907/474-6012 >Fax 907/474-5662 >e-mail: sakasofu@iarc.uaf.edu > >Program Management Team: >Syun Akasofu, Director, IARC, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK >John Calder, Director, Arctic Research, NOAA-OAR, Silver Spring, MD >Gunter Weller, Director, CIFAR, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK >******************************************** > > APPENDIX >INSTRUCTIONS FOR PROPOSAL PREPARATION >FORMAT OF THE PROPOSAL >Proposals should be stapled in the upper left-hand corner, but >otherwise be unbound, and have 2.5-cm margins at the top, bottom, and >on each side. The type size must be clear and readily legible, in >a standard font size of 10-12 point. The original signed copy should >be clipped together (not stapled) and printed on one side of each sheet >only. The 10 additional copies of the proposal may be printed on both sides. > >When submitting collaborative proposals involving more than one >institution, each institution should submit its own cover page with >appropriate signatures and its own budget. The title of the proposal, >the text, disclosures, vitae, etc., should be the same and a cover >letter should indicate that the proposal is a collaborative one >jointly submitted with another (or other) institution(s) which should >be named. > >SECTIONS OF THE PROPOSAL >1. Cover page. The cover page >should include a title, the Principal Investigator's name(s) and >affiliation(s), complete address, phone, fax, e-mail information, and >budget summary broken out by year. It must be signed by an official >authorized to legally bind the submitting organization. >2. Half-page >abstract (on a separate page). This should list the nature of the >proposed work (e.g., hypotheses to be tested, the relationship of the >proposed studies to the research themes, the goals of any proposed >workshops, relationship to the Arctic Council, etc.) and a summary of >the key approach. >3. Project Description. This section should present >the problem or opportunity to be addressed by the project, and state >the questions, hypotheses, and project objectives, clearly relating >them to the goals of this competition. Proposals should: summarize the >approach that will be used to address the questions, hypotheses, and >objectives; describe how the PIs and co-PIs would contribute to the >overall study approach; describe the methods to be used; and present >expected results. >4. Data Plan. The proposal should include a plan on >how the data generated by the proposed research will be made available >to other scientists (e.g., web pages) and deposited in a recognized >data archive. >5. References cited. >6. Milestone chart for the project. >7. Statement of the project responsibilities of each Principal >Investigator and participant. >8. Budget. Pattern your budget after NSF >budget Form 1030. Budget categories include the following: salaries >and wages, fringe benefits, equipment, travel, materials and supplies >(expendable), publication costs, consultant services, computer >services, sub-awards, tuition, other expenditures, and indirect costs >(facilities and administration). The full cost of logistics should be >included in the budget. Travel to an annual PI meeting in Fairbanks >should be included. Travel expenses need to be broken down by airfare >and per diem. Salaries for Government PIs will not be supported. >9. Biographical Sketch. This is limited to two pages for each Principal >Investigator and should be focused on information directly relevant to >undertaking the proposed research. >10. A short list of possible peer >reviewers with whom you have no close working or personal relationship >(optional). >11. Federal employees. Proposals are welcome from those >Federal agencies whose legislated mission allows participation. >NONDISCRIMINATION The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration >provides awards for research in the sciences. The awardee is wholly >responsible for the conduct of such research and preparation of the >results for publication. NOAA, therefore, does not assume >responsibility for such findings or their interpretation. IARC and >CIFAR welcome proposals on behalf of all qualified scientists and >engineers, and strongly encourage women, minorities, and persons with >disabilities to compete fully in any of the research and >research-related programs described in this document. In accordance >with Federal statutes and regulations, and NOAA policies, no person on >the grounds of race, color, age, sex, national origin, or disability >shall be excluded from participation in, denied the benefits of, or be >subjected to discrimination under any program or activity receiving >financial assistance from NOAA. >--------------------------------------------------------------------------- >ArcticInfo is administered by the Arctic Research Consortium of the >United States (ARCUS). Please visit us on the World Wide Web at > At anytime you may: Subscribe to ArcticInfo by >sending an email to arcticinfo-sub@arcus.org Unsubscribe by sending an >email to arcticinfo-unsub@arcus.org. These actions are automatic. >Barring mail system failure you should receive responses from our >system as confirmation to your requests. If you have information you >would like to post to the mailing list send the message to >dan@arcus.org or arcus@arcus.org. You can search back issues of >ArcticInfo by content or date at > If you have any >questions please contact the list administrator: dan@arcus.org ARCUS >600 University Avenue, Suite 1 Fairbanks, AK 99709 907/474-1600 >907/474-1604 fax > >Lab. of Dendrochronology > >Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology >8 Marta St., >202 Ekaterinburg, 620144, Russia >e-mail: stepan@ipae.uran.ru >Fax: +7 (3432) 29 41 61 >Phone: +7 (3432) 29 40 92 > > > >


Listen here -----Original Message----- From: Dillon, Lauren Sent: Tuesday, May 17, 2016 7:11 AM To: Comm_D Subject: Video request: NPR on the VA issues started around 7:08 am


Dear folks, Thank you very much for all of your emails, and my apologies for the delay in replying - I've been on travel for much of the past week. Peter, I think you've done a nice job in capturing some of my concerns about the Douglass et al. paper. Our CCSP Report helped to illustrate that there were large structural uncertainties in both the radiosonde- and MSU-based estimates of tropospheric temperature change. The scientific evidence available at the time we were finalizing the CCSP Report - from Sherwood et al. (2005) and the (then-unpublished) Randel and Wu paper - strongly suggested that a residual cooling bias existed in the sonde-based estimates of tropospheric temperature change. As you may recall, we showed results from both the RATPAC and HadAT2 radiosonde datasets in the CCSP Report and the Santer et al. (2005) Science paper. From the latter (see, e.g., our Figure 3B and Figures 4C,D), it was clear that there were physically-significant differences between the simulated temperature trends in the tropical lower troposphere (over 1979 to 1999) and the trends estimated from RATPAC, HadAT2, and UAH data. In both the Science paper and the CCSP Report, we judged that residual biases in the observations provided the most likely explanation for these model-versus-data trend discrepancies. Douglass et al. come to a fundamentally different conclusion, and ascribe model-versus-data differences to model error. They are not really basing this conclusion on new model data or on new observational data. The only "new" observational dataset that they use is an early version of Leo Haimberger's radiosonde dataset (RAOBCORE v1.2). Leo's dataset was under development at the time all of us were working on the CCSP Report and the Santer et al. Science paper. It was not available for our assessment in 2005. As Leo has already shared with you, newer versions of RAOBCORE (v1.3 and v1.4) show amplification of surface warming in the tropical troposphere, in reasonable agreement with the model results that we presented in Fig. 3B of our Science paper. Douglass et al. did not use these newer versions of RAOBCORE v1.2. Nor did Douglass et al. use any "inconvenient" observational datasets (such as the NESDIS-based MSU T2 dataset of Zou et al., or the MSU T2 product of Vinnikov and Grody) showing pronounced tropospheric warming over the satellite era. Nor did Douglass et al. discuss the "two timescale issue" that formed an important part of our Science paper (i.e., how could models and multiple observational datasets show amplification behavior that was consistent in terms of monthly variability but inconsistent in terms of decadal trends?) Nor did Douglass et al. fairly portray results from Peter's 2007 GRL paper. In my personal opinion, Douglass et al. have ignored all scientific evidence that is in disagreement with their view of how the real world should be behaving. I don't think it's a good strategy to submit a response to the Douglass et al. paper to the International Journal of Climatology (IJC). As Phil pointed out, IJC has a large backlog, so it might take some time to get a response published. Furthermore, Douglass et al. probably would be given the final word. My suggestion is to submit (to Science) a short "update" of our 2005 paper. This update would only be submitted AFTER publication of the four new radiosonde-based temperature datasets mentioned by Peter. The update would involve: 1) Use of all four new radiosonde datasets. 2) Use of the latest versions of the UAH and RSS TLT data, and the latest versions of the T2 data from UAH, RSS, UMD (Vinnikov and Grody), and NESDIS (Zou et al.). 3) Use of the T2 data in 2) above AND the UAH and RSS T4 data to calculate tropical "TFu" temperatures, with all possible combinations of T4 and T2 datasets (e.g., RSS T4 and UMD T2, UAH T4 and UMD T2, etc.) 4) Calculating synthetic MSU temperatures from all model 20c3m runs currently available in the IPCC AR4 database. Calculation of synthetic MSU temperatures would rely on a method suggested by Carl (using weighting functions that depend on both the surface type [land, ocean] and the surface pressure at each grid-point) rather than on the static global-mean weighting function that we used previously. This is probably several months of work - but at least it will keep me off the streets and out of trouble. 5) Formal determination of statistical significance of model-versus-observed trend differences. 6) Brief examination of timescale-dependence of amplification factors. 7) As and both Peter and Melissa suggested, brief examination of sensitivity of estimated trends to the selected analysis period (e.g., use of 1979 to 1999; use of 1979 to 2001 or 2003 [for the small number of model 20c3m runs ending after 1999]; use of data for the post-NOAA9 period). This will be a fair bit of effort, but I think it's worth it. Douglass et al. will try to make maximum political hay out of their IJC paper - which has already been sent to Andy Revkin at the New York Times. You can bet they've sent it elsewhere, too. I'm pretty sure that our colleague JC will portray Douglass et al. as definitive "proof" that all climate models are fundamentally flawed, UAH data are in amazing agreement with sonde-based estimates of tropospheric temperature change, global warming is not a serious problem, etc. One of the most disturbing aspects of Douglass et al. is its abrupt dismissal of the finding (by Sherwood et al. and Randel and Wu) of a residual tropospheric cooling bias in the sonde data. Douglass et al. base this dismissal on the Christy et al. (2007) JGR paper, and on Christy's finding of biases in the night-time sonde data that magically offset the biases in the day-time data. Does that sound familiar? When did we last hear about new biases magically offsetting the effect of recently-discovered biases? As Yogi Berra would say, this is deja vu all over again.... I hope that one of the papers on the new sonde-based datasets directly addresses the subject of 'error compensation' in the day-time and night-time sonde data. This would be important to do. It's unfortunate that Douglass et al. will probably be published well before the appearance of the papers on the new radiosonde datasets, and before an updated comparison of modeled-and observed tropospheric temperature trends. I'd be grateful if you could let me know whether you are in agreement with the response strategy I've outlined above, and would like to be involved with an update of our 2005 Science paper. With best regards, Ben Peter Thorne wrote: > All, > > There are several additional reasons why we may not expect perfect > agreement between models and obs that are outlined in the attached > paper. > > It speaks in part to the trend uncertainty that Carl alluded to - taking > differences between linear trend estimates is hard when the underlying > series is noisy and perhaps non-linear. Work that John and Dian have > done also shows this. Taking the ratio between two such estimates is > always going to produce noisy results over relatively short trend > periods when the signal is small relative to the natural variability. > > Also, 1979 as a start date may bias those estimates towards a "bias", I > believe (this is unproven) because of endpoint effects due to natural > variability that tend to damp the ratio of Trop/Surf trends (ENSO > phasing and El Chichon) for any trend period with this start date. Given > the N-9 uncertainty a reasonable case could be made for an evaluation of > the obs that started only after N-9 and this may yield a very different > picture. > > It also shows that the model result really is constrained to perturbed > physics, at least for HadCM3. Unsurprising as convective adjustment is > at the heart of most models. Certainly ours anyway. This result was > cherry-picked and the rest of the paper discarded by Douglass et al. > > In addition to this, the state of play on the radiosondes has moved on > substantially with RAOBCORE 1.4 (accepted I believe, Leo Haimberger > should be in this - I'm adding him) which shows warming intermediate > between UAH and RSS and I know of three additional efforts on > radiosondes all of which strongly imply that the raobs datasets used in > this paper are substantially under-estimating the warming rate (Steve > Sherwood x2 and our automated system). So, there's going to be a whole > suite of papers hopefully coming out within the next year or so that > imply we at least cannot rule out from the radiosonde data warming > consistent even with the absurd "mean of the model runs" criteria that > is used in this paper. > > For info, our latest results imply a true raobs trend for 2LT in the > tropics somewhere >0.08K/decade (we cannot place a defensible upper > limit) ruling out most of the datasets used in the Douglass paper and > ruling in possibility of consistency with models. > > Douglass et al also omit the newer MSU studies from the NESDIS group > which in the absence of a reasonable criteria (a criteria I think we are > some way away from still) to weed out bad obs datasets should be > considered. Placing all obs datasets and the likely new raobs datasets > would pretty much destroy this paper's main point. There's been a fair > bit of cherry picking on the obs side which needs correcting here. > > Peter > > On Tue, 2007-12-04 at 15:40 -0800, carl mears wrote: >> Karl -- thanks for clarifying what I was trying to say >> >> Some further comments..... >> >> At 02:53 PM 12/4/2007, Karl Taylor wrote: >>> Dear all, >>> 2) unforced variability hasn't dominated the observations. >> But on this short time scale, we strongly suspect that it has >> dominated. For example, the >> 2 sigma error bars from table 3.4, CCSP for satellite TLT are 0.18 (UAH) or >> 0.19 (RSS), larger >> than either group's trends (0.05, 0.15) for 1979-2004. These were >> calculated using a "goodness >> of linear fit" criterion, corrected for autocorrelation. This is a >> probably a reasonable >> estimate of the contribution of unforced variability to trend uncertainty. >> >> >> >>> Douglass et al. have *not* shown that every individual model is in fact >>> inconsistent with the observations. If the spread of individual model >>> results is large enough and at least 1 model overlaps the observations, >>> then one cannot claim that all models are wrong, just that the mean is biased. >> >> Given the magnitude of the unforced variability, I would say "the mean >> *may* be biased." You can't prove this >> with only one universe, as Tom alluded. All we can say is that the >> observed trend cannot be proven to >> be inconsistent with the model results, since it is inside their range. >> >> It we interesting to see if we can say anything more, when we start culling >> out the less realistic models, >> as Ben has suggested. >> >> -Carl >> >> >> >> -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Benjamin D. Santer Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103 Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A. Tel: (925) 422-2486 FAX: (925) 422-7675 email: santer1@llnl.gov ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


There was an interview with Sec. Hillary Clinton. [Watch ] From: Dieter, Austin Sent: Sunday, May 01, 2016 9:27 AM To: Comm_D Subject: RE: CNN SOTU Cruz interview with Tapper Says it's been a very good week for his campaign; talks about endorsements from Pence and Pete Wilson - "California is likely to decide" this battle. Says he is working to bring the party together because if they're divided, they lose. Calling picking Carly as VP is just what DJT is doing, not the reality. The reality is that it is laying out a clear contrast for the voters between him and Carly and DJT. Calls DJT and HRC two sides of the same coin - both New York liberals. Tapper plans clip of Carly saying that Cruz is just like any politician and is part of the "cartel" Cruz attacks from January. Cruz says it's just like when Reagan chose HW as his VP and had to explain the things they said about each other during primary. Says Carly's secretary to CEO line. On Boehner's comments: "I think Boehner kind of let out his inner Trump and had some colorful imagery there." Says DJT, HRC, Boehner are all part of the same corrupt Washington system that will make the rich get richer, while he and Carly are about bring up working class people. Tapper plays Caitlyn Jenner video of using the women's restroom in Trump Tower and asks about Cruz's comments about child molestation. Cruz says it is common sense to make sure that adult men that are strangers shouldn't be in bathroom with little girls, and he isn't saying transgender people are predators, but it would open the door for predators to use women's restrooms. * It is the height of political correctness for DJT to say people can use whichever bathroom they please. * Behind the DJT mask is HRC - he gave seven contributions to her and supported Planned Parenthood, banning guns nationwide, being neutral on Israel/Palestine, and raising taxes. From: Dieter, Austin Sent: Sunday, May 01, 2016 9:13 AM To: Comm_D Subject: CNN SOTU HRC interview with Tapper Said she doesn't consider herself the presumptive nominee and is going to keep competing in upcoming states Asked about making a deal on issues with Sanders, says she looks forward to talking to Sanders in the lead up to the convention. Happy to hear that Sanders plans to work tirelessly 7 days a week to ensure DJT is not president. Was hard to give up in the 2008 primary fight and understands what Sanders is going through. He's been a passionate advocate for democratic issues and has brought millions into the process. On DJT FP: calls it "quite concerning," specifically his secret plan, pulling out of NATO, and nukes for more countries comments. Doesn't think any of it is a very smart way to move forward. * Says she has always used military force has a last resort, not a first choice, and that there'll be a lot to contrast with between her and DJT Thinks DJT's comment that she'd be polling below 5% if she was a man is silly and doesn't square with reality. Says she has a lot of experience with men that sometimes "get off the reservation" in their actions or the way they speak. Nothing secret about what she wants to do on the issues, but DJT hasn't laid it all out there - can't tell if it's because he won't or if it's because he can't. In question about getting white working class votes, HRC pushed back by saying she won OH and PA, getting more votes than DJT in each. * Understands that some were helped and some were hurt by decisions in 1990s, talks about an old vehicle plant in OH that is part of the global market that she visited. Tapper asked about HRC being at Trump's wedding to Melania, HRC says at that time it never crossed her mind that they would later be running against each other for President


Thanks Keith, I just read your email after reading the others. We actually eliminate records with negative correlations (this is mentioned breifly in the GRL article,), and we investigated a variety of weighting schemes to assure the basic robustness of the composite--but I certainly endorse your broader point here. Many of these records have some significant uncertainties or possible sources of bias, and this isn't the place to get into that. The uncertainties get at this, at some level, and other places (e.g. the Reviews of Geophysics paper Phil and I are drafting) will provide an opportunity to discuss these kinds of issues in more detail--we will certainly be seeking advice (either officially or unofficially) from each of you once we have finalized the draft of that... Now back to my honeymoon... mike At 02:38 PM 6/24/2003 +0100, Keith Briffa wrote: To keep you informed , here is a reply to Tom Wigley re his request to "deal with Ray's Comments" re the China series in EOS piece Tom Tim has just told me of your message expressing concern about the China series , and your statement of the necessity to "deal with Ray's comment" and add in the "small adjustment to the Figure Caption". . We (I and Tim) decided to get this off as soon as possible to Ellen (AGU) , as we had been asked to do (and as requested by Ellen). Hence it went off earlier today (and before your message arrived). Mike was aware of Ray's comment and was happy to leave any amendment to the text "until the proof stage" . In my opinion it is not practical (or desirable) to try to "qualify " any one record in this limited format. It was a majority decision to leave the Mann and Jones 2000-year series in the Figure 1 (as it was to remove the Briffa and Osborn tree-ring based one) , and the details of the logic used to derive the Mann and Jones series is to be found in the (cited) text of their paper. Signing on to this letter , in my mind. implies agreement with the text and not individual endorsement of all curves by each author. I too have expressed my concern to Phil (and Ray) over the logic that you leave all series you want in but just weight them according to some (sometimes low) correlation (in this case based on decadal values). I also believe some of the series that make up the Chinese record are dubious or obscure , but the same is true of other records Mann and Jones have used (e.g. how do you handle a series in New Zealand that has a -0.25 correlation?) . Further serious problems are still (see my and Tim's Science comment on the Mann 1999 paper) lurking with the correction applied to the Western US tree-ring PC amplitude series used (and shown in Figure 2). There are problems (and limitations ) with ALL series used. At this stage , singling out individual records for added (and unavoidably cursory added description) is not practical. We were told to cut the text and References significantly - and further cuts are implied by Ellen's messages to us. If you wish to open this up to general discussion , it may be best to wait 'til the proof stage and then we can all consider the balance of emphasis - but we had also better guard against too "selective" a choice of data to present? If you want to get a somewhat wider discussion of this point going in the meantime , feel free to forward this to whoever you wish along with your disagreement , while we wait on the response from AGU. Best wishes Keith Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1] ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [2] References 1.  2.


Welcome to "Ghetto" America! �...Yes, you heard me; I said "Ghetto" America! What is "Ghetto" America, I'm glad you asked. Before I go on please be warned, this explanation may not sit well with many of you, however it is no less true! "Ghetto" America is a society of individuals comprised primarily of African Americans who represent the impoverished, and often unpolished side of "Black America;" Confused?! I shall explain further; have you ever passed by a typical ghetto community; namely the "projects" and noticed an unusual amount of fancy cars parked throughout that particular neighborhood, and wondered how could that be? Or maybe you have been to a shopping mall, and noticed an unusual amount of young "teen looking" black women carrying infants, or pushing baby carriages and often with a toddler in tow! Perhaps you also noticed that there was rarely any male companion accompanying them. If you paid close attention you might have also noticed the absence of the all important "wedding band" missing from their respective ring fingers!" .And of course we have all heard stories of young black men carrying guns, and knives, allegedly mugging, robbing and carjacking people of all sorts! Did you know that many young African American women refuse to date African American males if they do not own or possess an automobile. In fact many young Black women prefer only to date individuals who represent the subversive side of society; commonly known as "Thugs" or "Street Hustlers;" Also, did you know that many young African American males prefer to buy expensive luxury cars while living in government housing better known as the "projects" rather than move away, purchase new homes, save, or even make investments? "Attention" This is Not another "Boyz in the Hood" Story! These newly distinguished "Black Generation Xers" are suffering through utter chaos. "Baby Makers, Loser choosers, Welfare Abusers...Images of My America" is a collection of observations, and commentary as told through the eyes of a young African American Male who experienced, and perpetuated many of the truths that many in "Black America," and the world in general would have you believe do not exist. It is a riveting expose that sheds light on the oppressive, and often discriminatory nature of "Mainstream American Society." A society that has nurtured the rampant disregards for self-respect, and enlightenment that many young African American men, and women currently suffer from. The writer supports his arguments with direct references to the overwhelming numbers of young black single mothers attempting to raise children, with many being teens themselves; and the foolish criteria that is utilized when choosing their mates; oftentimes being based on nothing more than the young black male's tough or cool neighborhood reputation. The author also identifies the self-destructive and often criminal behavior that many young black men perpetuate on a daily basis like, refusing to pursue higher education, carrying guns, robbing, stealing, selling drugs, driving fancy cars, and wearing expensive jewelry. The negative and self-debasing behavior committed by both males, and females is due in large part to a lack of guidance resulting from having been reared in fatherless homes. These poor choices, and behavioral disorders coupled with the unnecessary burden that it places on tax paying citizens in the form of welfare abuse, and over crowded prison populations are the center causes for the cycle of rampant poverty, and lack of direction that currently exists in young "Black America" today. To learn more about this dynamic self contained society visit www.BlackRealityPublishing.com and reserve your copy today! To request an excerpt please email Books@BlackRealityPublishing.com Buy this soon to be "Best Seller" now! www.BlackRealityPublishing.com


On now.


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07.10.2002 Lockergnome Penguin Shell 07.10.2002 PenguinREPORT CAREER SERVICES FROM LOCKERGNOME AND DICE.COM: We've teamed up with Dice.com to bring you a full service I.T. career enhancement solution. Whether you are looking for your dream job or trying to hire talented people, the full-featured career resource center is the place to start. Find your IT talent solution today! I've just got a few quick thoughts today. First, the search is underway for the hosting solution mentioned in Monday's Penguin Shell. The response has been great, with more than two dozen offers of web space for the Foundation for Children and Youth With Diabetes. It gratifying to see our community rally around a great cause. Know that whether you answered the call or not, you're in the electronic company of some caring and compassionate folks. I've not yet heard whether a solution has been found from among the many offered, but I'll certainly keep you posted on the outcome. Second, a few final clarifications on the 4th of July bruhaha. A reader brought to my attention that, though he didn't believe it to be the case, offering my opinion on the state of America could be seen as trolling. That certainly wasn't intended. Also, I've seen much email over the past week that started with, "Since you published the opinion of someone outside the US, I'd expect that you'll publish an opinion in disagreement." Well, I did that already - it was my own opinion that started the discussion. I can clearly see the potential for this to get out of hand. So, this will be the last word on the subject. Thanks for your opinions and your discussion, the vast majority of which was well-thought and reasonable. Both sides were presented and we're moving on. On to some Lockergnome news. If you haven't already heard, CleverMedia is sponsoring karaoke night at Gnomedex. According to the woman with her finger on the pulse of Gnomedex, Lori Lockwood, "There is definitely a 'surprise' in the works for the attendees ... " Hmmm. Could it even compare to last year's Miss Gnomedex contest? I think it unlikely. In any regard, the folks at CleverMedia are certainly more than capable of coming up with loads of fun -- it's what they do for a living! Between Leo Laporte, Doc Searls, Steve Gibson, Mark Thompson, Evan Williams, and too many others to mention, you'd be silly to miss out. Onward. Have a great day. Tony Steidler-Dennison GnomeTWEAK Lockergnome readers, SAVE 50% on the Computing Encyclopedia! Are you looking for the ultimate computing resource? Discover the Computing Encyclopedia from Smart Computing. Regular price $59, SPECIAL OFFER for Lockergnome readers, get your set TODAY, ONLY $29.95! Windows Apps in Linux? - Part II I don't want to mince any words, here. CodeWeavers has really hit a sweet spot with their recently-released CrossOver Office product. This is, quite simply, the fulfillment of the promise of the Wine Project. Using this slick little app, virtually all the applications in the Microsoft Office suite are fully functional in Linux. Frankly, I never thought I'd see the day when running Windows apps in Linux was exciting. Maybe it's time to take up shucking ice cubes in the blasted lands. Let's break this product up a bit. If purchased as a bundle, both CrossOver Office and CrossOver Plugin (as we discussed yesterday) share an install script. They do, however, require separate install processes, so they need to be launched individually from a shared window. I started the CrossOver Office install, dropped my Office 2000 disc in the CD drive, and fired up the install. It looked and performed exactly as you'd expect to see it in Windows. I was able to customize the install, as I always have, then let it run. At the end of the process, CrossOver Office "fakes" a Windows reboot and the Office suite installation is complete. Even Internet Explorer 5.0 is installed. There's an option in the CrossOver Office package to install IE 5.5 but, to my chagrin, this was the one area of the install that failed. Actually, the install itself may have succeeded - I was just left without an IE browser following the upgrade. It's hard to tell whether that was a fault in CrossOver Office, or in the IE program itself. For the most part, these apps perform in Linux as they do in Windows. The IE install was a bit kludgy, with some font problems and an inability to customize the toolbar. Word worked perfectly, allowing me even to pull together legal documents for a friend's business without so much as a hiccup. Even printing works well with the installation of a "Wine Postscript Printer" driver. Let me reiterate something I said yesterday. I've watched the Wine Project walk, then crawl, then walk again over the past few years. I've always suspected that the fits and starts were not for lack of talent. With the financial backing of CodeWeavers, it appears that my suspicions were well founded. Wine has, through CrossOver Office and CrossOver Plugin, matured to a level of useability that should easily attract Linux users throughout the spectrum of experience. In the big picture, widespread acceptance of these products could remove the last remaining roadblock for many current Windows users to make the leap to Linux: the loss of Word and Excel. They simply don't need to fear those losses any more. A note on the "for pay" structure of these products seems in order. As you well know, I'm an open source guy through and through. But, this is clearly a case in which the "free" efforts of talented and dedicated developers simply wasn't enough to close the gap. The value of these products easily outweighs their minimal cost. And, if it keeps these developers moving forward, it seems to be the perfect pay model for Linux. Recommend It! Send us a GnomeTWEAK GnomeCORE Kernel Configuration - Part X Today we're looking into the mysteries of Plug and Play support in your Linux kernel configuration. There's really not much mystery to it. This section simply asks the question, "Do you want plug and play support in the kernel?" In other words, do you have all the PCI and ISA devices in your system that you'll ever need to have? If you're set solid with your current machine, there's no use to add the overhead of PnP to your system's kernel code, or as a loadable module. If, on the other hand, you've got PCI or (on an older system) ISA slots just begging to be filled, build this support into the kernel or select it as modules. See, this kernel gig isn't really so tough. In fairness, we're hitting the high points without a heady discussion of the hidden workings. The discussion of PnP alone could comprise a full series in Penguin Shell. But, so far, the configuration has been pretty straightforward. Tomorrow, we will dive a bit deeper, with a discussion of block device kernel configuration. Recommend It! Send us a GnomeCORE tip GnomeFILE LiquidWar "Liquid War is a truly original multiplayer wargame. You control an army formed with thousands of pixels (fighters) which look like liquid and try to eat your opponent. You can play against a primitive NPC/AI or up to 5 other human players. Network play is available." Recommend It! Send us a GnomeFILE suggestion GnomeVOICE Gnome 2 Installation Notes Scribbled by Dale Hirt "As always, am loving the newsletter. I've been getting it since day one, and I love all the stuff that you have put in it. "Just a quick word about the Gnome2 installation. At least so far in my installation wonders, I have noticed that you need to install intltool (#15) before scrollkeeper (#3), as it is required in order to build. Thanks again for a great newsletter." Recommend It! Speak your GnomeVOICE GnomeCLICK Linmodems.org Linmodems.org is a full-featured site on modem hardware and setup in Linux. This has always been a point of friction with Linux users - finding that the machine you've just coverted doesn't have a Linux-compatible modem, or finding modem configuration to be too difficult. Linmodems.org takes on both these issues with skill and ease. The site includes discussion on hardware, software and chipsets. It also links to sites to walk you through the process of setting up a winmodem in Linux. This is a great resource of your main connection to the e-universe is via a dialup connection. Recommend It! Suggest a GnomeCLICK Your subscribed e-mail address is: [qqqqqqqqqq-lg@spamassassin.taint.org] - To unsubscribe or change your delivery address, please visit the subscription management page. Use of the Gnome moniker by Penguin Shell does not imply endorsement of the Gnome Desktop Environment. Penguin Shell is an equal-opportunity desktop employer. For further information, please refer to the GnomeCREDITS in the sidebar. LOOK OVER HERE Download Tip eBooks Latest Windows Daily Latest Digital Media Latest Tech Specialist Latest Penguin Shell Latest Apple Core Latest Web Weekly Latest Bits & Bytes Latest Audio Show Low Price Search Our Tech Conference Microsoft Office Tips PC Productivity Tips Cool Internet Tips Windows 2000 Tips Windows XP Tips Tell a Friend About Us! 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