For this year the IMF forecasts a current account deficit of 3 percent for the US. Optimum currency areas: basic considerations The above mentioned figures are publicly available. They are well known to scholars and market participants. Why then, one may ask, are markets still so suspicious against the euro area?
Regardless of whether or not stock prices are too high, a decline of the magnitude we have seen is bound to have some impact on the macroeconomy. At the Dutch central bank we have estimated that a sustained decline of 30% would have a cumulative negative impact of just over ½ % on European growth over three years.