The U.S. Federal Reserve indicated its judgment on prices in the press release issued after the policy change in May as follows: "Pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months and pricing power is more evident. Longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained."
Beyond that horizon, however, total PCE inflation drops quickly to about 2–1/4 percent and then declines gradually back to its longer-run rate of 2 percent. These fairly modest and transitory effects of an oil price shock are also consistent with the response of the U.S. economy to the dramatic run-up in commodity prices from 2002 to 2008.