In the event, we did not because we witnessed one of the sharpest turnarounds in economic prospects any of us has seen. While in the June quarter most major countries, including many in Asia, saw declines in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), by the September quarter they were all growing strongly.
The weakness we had seen in the June quarter turned out to be a ‘false signal’. In financial markets, bond yields rose sharply, share prices continued to rise, and various prices connected with international trade, such as commodity prices and transport prices, also rose. Talk of deflation ceased and the short-lived bout of monetary easing stopped.