A rule of thumb says that a drop in output for two quarters running is a “technical recession”. In the USA, the National Bureau for Economic Research operates with a more sophisticated definition of recession, based on the development in a number of macroeconomic time series.
According to this definition, the Bureau noted a year ago that the USA went into a recession in March 2001. Whether this recession is persistent or has now ceased will not be revealed until the figures have been revised and closely analysed, with a timelag of many months, and perhaps more than one year.