These forecasts are based on the assumption that the reforms and privatisations agreed between the Greek government and the institutions will be implemented and the relevant fund disbursements will be completed in time, so as to support liquidity in the Greek economy, and that the ECB’s monetary policy accommodation will remain in place.
Regarding the inflation outlook, the downward trend of prices is expected to bottom out in 2016 and be followed by gradual increases in 2017 and 2018. The unemployment rate is expected to keep falling in 2016, although at a slow pace that should pick up in 2017–2018. However, risks to the path of the Greek economy remain.