While it is important to learn from past vulnerabilities – as has typically been the focus to date – we also need to do more to identify extreme hypothetical scenarios and consider the full range of potential risks, such as financial, conjunctural, geopolitical, cyber and environmental risks.
This approach is akin to an army overwhelming the enemy by attacking on all flanks at once. As the sun set on demonetization on September 30, 2019, inflation, the exchange rate and other key macroeconomic indicators remained stable. There were no last minute panic queues outside banking halls—the awareness campaign had been effective and ordinary Kenyans had exchanged their notes in good time.