However, current logistical problems, the destruction of production facilities (in the energy sector in particular), and a decline in real household income are restraining economic recovery. As a result, the fall in GDP will be 32% in 2022.
The key factor in the future recovery of the economy is the assumption in the NBU's forecast that there will be a decline in security risks from the middle of 2023. In particular, full recovery in operations at the Black Sea ports will allow there to be a significant increase in Ukrainian exports.