Policy should tighten, that is real interest rates should rise, to the extent that inflation is expected to be higher next year on account of the supply shock. This might reflect the effect of a supply shock as today’s oil prices raise overall inflation, and, through the effect of inflation on wage bargaining, impact on broader measures of price change in subsequent quarters.
One way to handle that within the Taylor Rule is to specify the rule using a measure of core inflation, meaning one that excludes oil and food prices, the price components most subject to supply shocks.