1994; Armstrong et al. 1995), which was the Bank’s projection model from the mid-1990s until the mid-2000s. As its name suggests, ToTEM is the first model of its kind to have a fully developed commodity sector that captures economic and financial interactions with the terms of trade.
This investment in modelling more than paid for itself in 2015, when the Bank was able to reach an early understanding of the plunge in global oil prices that took place in late 2014 and early 2015. I have no doubt that Doug would have enjoyed using ToTEM to explore the issue of the monetary/fiscal policy mix in Canada.