The downward trend in oil prices that began in mid-2014 continued amid a supply glut and weak demand. Prices have recovered somewhat from multi-year lows of below $ per barrel in January following supply disruptions in a number of countries and curtailment of investment and output in others.
Although prices are expected to rise in the medium term, the trajectory is expected to be moderate, in line subdued global demand. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The second half of last year was dominated by speculation regarding the timing and speed of US monetary policy normalisation. This uncertainty continued to contribute to global financial market volatility as perceptions kept changing.