And the way it goes is: You [the central bank] increase the money supply when markets are not expecting it. Prices are relatively sticky, and therefore, the increase in money supply increases output. But then, the only way you only did it is by fooling people. [By the] next time you do it, it is not going to work anymore.
As a result, the range of future possible outlays per recipient is extremely wide. The actuaries' projections of Medicare costs are, perforce, highly provisional. These uncertainties - especially our inability to identify the upper bound of future demands for medical care - counsel significant prudence in policymaking.