The third criterion was that we want to be reassured that the upward path in inflation can be maintained even in conditions in which monetary policy becomes less accommodative. And this also is not there. The future path of inflation remains dependent on a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation. So when you look at the four criteria, the conditions are not yet met.
There is perhaps even more uncertainty about ‘what lies around the corner’. Will the US share market continue rising over the next year or two, stabilise at present levels, or fall substantially?