15 Other forecasters--for instance, Blue Chip and the Survey of Professional Forecasters--have also revised down their estimates for longer-run real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. See Jerome H. Powell (2016), “Recent Economic Developments, the Productive Potential of the Economy, and Monetary Policy,” speech delivered at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, May 26, https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20160526a.htm.
Introduction I’d like to thank the Australian Business Economists for the invitation to speak here today. It’s not surprising that after a period of sub-par growth in many parts of the world, we often hear the term “recovery” in discussion of current economic conditions and future prospects. For economists, the term recovery fits within the realm of business cycle analysis.