7  17  6  14 11  5  9.3  8  4  5  3  2  2  4.3  2.5  5.4  3.6 5.4  3.8 1.0  1.9 0.5  -1  1  -4  0  -7  -1  -10  -2  -13  -3  -16  -4 IV I 2009  II  III  IV I 2010  II  III  IV I 2011  II  III  IV I 2012  II  III  IV 2013  -3.5  2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Net exports Government Investment** * NBS estimate.
"Credit booms gone bust: monetary policy, leverage cycles, and  financial crises, 1870-2008." American Economic Review, 102(2): 1029-61. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches