Importantly, while it is customary in business cycle analysis to date the transition from the recovery phase to the expansion phase according to the calendar quarter in which the level of real GDP first exceeds the previous business cycle’s peak, in past U.S. business cycles, the recovery in employment has always lagged the recovery in GDP, and this cycle is no exception.
Indeed, at the end of the second quarter of this year, even though the level of real GDP was 0.8 percent above the level reached at the previous business cycle peak, the level of employment as measured by the household survey remained about 7 million below the level reached at the previous business cycle peak.