First is China’s growth transition and the rebalancing of its economy from industry to services, from exports to domestic markets, and from investment to consumption. In the short run, this will lead to slower growth with spill over effects through trade and lower demand for commodities.
Global trade, which fell to 20 per cent below its pre-crisis trend, was driven by sluggish growth in advanced economies, and the maturation of global value chains which has further reduced the elasticity of trade flows to economic activity and exchange rate changes.