Mr. Trichet: I see four main possible factors behind a progressive gradual recovery in 2010: first the expansionary effect of the fall in the price of oil and commodities; second the activation of the economies through discretionary fiscal policies and automatic stabilizers which are very substantial; third the extraordinary measures that have been taken to put the financial sector back on its feet: on this side of the Atlantic the commitments of the executive branches in the form of recapitalization, guarantees and other options represent around 23% of the GDP; fourth the policies of the central banks: as an example for the ECB and the Eurosystem the size of the balance sheet represents now 16% of the GDP when it was 10% before the crisis, namely an increase of 600 billon euros (approximately 800 billon dollars).
The EMU accession impact In Europe, specific developments were also at play, the most significant one being the plans to set up an Economic and Monetary Union. As from the mid-1990s, the prospect of EMU fostered the rapid convergence of interest rates to the levels prevailing in Germany (the anchor country in the then Exchange Rate Mechanism).