Before the financial crisis, global imports typically rose considerably faster than activity. In the three decades before the great recession, trade rose almost twice as fast as output (an elasticity of trade to GDP growth averaging 1.8). But since 2011, world trade has plateaued relative to world GDP around the level reached in 2008. Some of this weakness is likely to be cyclical.
Global business investment, which typically has high trade content, has surprised on the downside in recent years and that has probably restrained the pace of global trade. As investment recovers, it should also spur a pick-up in global trade in the medium term. However, there are a number of structural factors that could underlie the slow global trade growth.