Let me now illustrate how real world behaves in capricious and unpredictable ways posing complex challenges for economic prediction. (i)  Take the recent financial crisis. It is not as if no one saw the pressures building up.
Draghi: We are certainly on a good path. We see extraordinary progress in reforms in Spain and Italy, particularly if you consider what they have done over the last six months in comparison with what they did not do for many years. The direction of policies in many countries was flawed and needed to be corrected. This process is currently under way.