We would expect some dispersion and differentials among euro area countries: in the long and very long term, several parameters characterising their economies are bound to fluctuate around some average of the euro area as a whole. Put more clearly, there will always be some diversity as in other vast continental economies with a single currency like the United States.
18  Figure 7a – Performance of the debt-to-GDP ratio under different assumptions 180 Baseline scenario Varenna 2017 scenario  160  Varenna 2017 scenario with the spread at current levels  140  120  100  80  60 2017  2019  2021  2023  2025  2027  2029  2031  2033  2035  2037  Note: The baseline scenario assumes a primary surplus equal to that forecast for this year in the 2018 DEF (1.9 per cent of GDP), the spread between Italian and German government securities remaining at current values (240 basis points for ten-year bonds), the gradual normalization of monetary policy, and growth potential equal to 1 per cent.