Even so, recalling that the dollar’s actual appreciation has been about 15 percent, the model estimates suggest that the cumulative reduction in  3  The results presented here are taken from the staff’s U.S. International Transactions (USIT) model of the U.S. external sector.
Long-term yields I will now talk a bit about an issue that is of direct relevance to actuaries. Is the government bond rate still the appropriate risk-free yield? Is it lower now than it used to be and will it stay there? On the first question, in my opinion, the answer is still yes.