Weak global growth is surely part of the explanation, as emphasized by several recent empirical studies, including a special chapter on the topic in the latest IMF World Economic Outlook. 5 As can be seen in slide 5, global GDP growth has fallen from an average of 3.5 percent before the Global Financial Crisis to about 2.5 percent since its end.
But weak global growth alone does not explain why trade has slowed to about the same pace as GDP after growing faster than GDP for decades. Part of the reason could be that the particular expenditure categories in which international trade flows are concentrated have become especially weak.