With the apparent cyclical slowdown in economic growth in the euro area, the balance of risks to future price stability moved significantly to the downside. This assessment was also reflected in the downward revisions to the inflation forecasts of international organisations.
At that point in time, growth was slightly above the reference value, but there were several indications - also against the background of historically low interest rates - that M3 was temporarily being distorted upwards in early 1999 as a result of the changeover to Stage Three of EMU.