Given this development, the ECB staff have revised their April Eurosystem projection slightly upwards. Average growth is now expected to lie between 1.6% and 2.2% for 2004 and between 1.8% and 2.8% in 2005. As with any forecast, there are also downside risks. First and foremost, there is the oil price risk.
Moreover, the balance of payments records these notional foreign direct investment flows as capital inflows (and imports on the current account) even though the respective flows may have been predominantly in US dollars.