And notably, the weakness in the manufacturing sector has not spilled over in a material way to the services sector. All this means that the global economy appears quite resilient at the moment. The big uncertainty remains trade policy. A resolution of the current disputes would help boost trade flows and reduce some of the uncertainties facing businesses.
In that case, we could expect a pickup in investment too. On the other hand, a failure to resolve the disputes represents a major downside risk to the global economy. So there is a lot riding on this issue.