Although manufacturing production grew by 2,7 per cent between the first quarter of 2002 and the first quarter of 2003, on a quarter-on-quarter basis it fell at an annualised rate of 0,3 per cent in the first quarter of 2003. Other indicators also point to a slight slowdown in activity in certain sectors.
But it should fall to about 2 1/2 per cent in the second half of this year, and to about 2 per cent by early 2004. Total CPI inflation will continue to fluctuate with swings in crude oil prices.