As I have already mentioned, the policy-relevant signal in money is in the low frequency or persistent component of monetary developments. The challenge is to identify in real time this underlying trend in monetary growth, which – at any specific moment – may differ in size and/or direction from developments in the annual M3 growth rate.
Moreover, precisely because it is the persistent part of money that is relevant for policy decisions, the monetary signal is unlikely to change from month to month or even quarter to quarter. It is therefore unlikely to provide a determining trigger for a specific policy action in, say, December rather than January. Instead it influences the path of policy rates over time.