In the United States, before COVID-19, the contribution of goods prices to changes in the CPI was extremely limited, indicating that increases in the CPI were almost entirely driven by higher services prices. It is also clear that the contribution of services prices to inflation was relatively large in Europe.
Moreover, this date is estimated to be shorter than, but closer to the liftoff date predicted by the optimal policy simulation (a rule to minimize the deviations of inflation from 2 percent and the deviations of  11  Clemens J. M. Kool and Daniel L. Thornton, “How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper Series, 2012–063A, 2012.