After successive upward revisions, the March 1999 estimate was set at about 13.5 percent (profit weighted), a peak for this expansion. While there are ample data to conclude that these estimates are biased upward, there is scant evidence to suggest the bias has changed.
Figure 4: Divergence of New Zealand commodity prices vs. global commodity prices  Source: ANZ, UBS, Bloomberg, and Reserve Bank of New Zealand  Another development worth noting is the increasingly diverse nature of our exports, with the growing importance of our service exports and the growth in the technology sector.