To get a rough idea of how important the trade and commodity price channels could be, our staff conducted simulations using our economic models. They looked at what would be the effect on the Canadian economy if GDP growth in China were 1 percentage point lower than our baseline projection.
They found that Canadian GDP would be 0.1 percentage point lower than it would have been otherwise. To give some perspective, if the same shock occurred in the US, the effect on our GDP would be six times greater.