It is in that spirit that I offer these observations. 1. The short-run effects of an acceleration in productivity growth  We do not have many opportunities to learn about how the economy responds to major accelerations or decelerations in productivity. Figure 1 depicts the pattern in trend productivity growth from the 1960s to the first half of 2000.
We assessed these vulnerabilities in the context of four risk scenarios, namely: •  a large increase in Canadian unemployment brought about by a severe recession;  •  a sharp jump in long-term interest rates driven by higher risk premiums, globally and in Canada;  •  a sudden rise in stress from China or another major emerging economy; and  •  a prolonged period of very low commodity prices.