The IMF has recently attempted to answer this question, on the basis of a study for 16 of the largest emerging market economies, accounting for a large share of the group’s output and spanning a broad spectrum of economic and structural characteristics.2 The conclusion is that external factors (including, but not limited to, growth in the AEs) contribute as much as or more than other factors in explaining deviations from estimated average growth during the period 1998–2013.
Irrespective of the precise figures, it is unquestionable that external factors have played a decisive role in EMEs growth performance in recent years. However, I am of the view that the main challenge for this group of countries in coming years is of a domestic, not of an external, nature. In this respect, it is worth to consider the following.