The sense of motion in the economy adds to the uncertainties we face as modellers and forecasters. The reality is that conducting monetary policy requires a lot of judgment. Rather than the finely tuned mechanical process many people imagine, policy is much more akin to an exercise in risk management.
What you need to contemplate as you walk out of here is this: the biggest threat to our economy’s growth prospects at this time will not come from the weak performance of the energy sector nor will it come from falling oil prices.