Hence, although there are, at the moment, no clear indications that sustained liquidity dependence would be a major concern in Germany, we certainly have to err on the side of caution and monitor liquidity, credit lines, and changes in deposits carefully. 2.3 Do banks underestimate future macroeconomic risks? Financial crises often coincide with macroeconomic turning points.
From a financial stability perspective, understanding how the macroeconomic environment affects the health of banks, how banks assess their exposure to macroeconomic risks, and taking preventive action if macroeconomic risks are underestimated is thus crucial. At the same time, modelling exposure to future macroeconomic risks is challenging. Adjustment patterns of the past may not be very informative with regard to future risks.