We forecast that global growth will moderate from about 3¾ per cent this year to 3½ per cent next year, with the US strength expected to ease back by 2020. Of course, various trade actions—and the threat of more—have already begun to affect the global economy.
The escalation of tariffs between the United States and China is of particular concern, weakening investment and the overall growth outlook, and putting downward pressure on various commodity prices. 1/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  A key implication of the divergence of growth between the United States and the rest of the world is an appreciating US dollar.