Key risks to the forecast are still posed by an escalation of the military conflict with Russia and a longer and more pronounced global price surge than expected earlier. The stoking of tensions in the media regarding the possibility of military aggression has decreased the value of Ukrainian assets and increased depreciation pressures.
Prolonged geopolitical tensions could have a very negative impact on the expectations of households, businesses and investors, while also significantly hampering investment in the economy and making it difficult to raise external financing. If geopolitical risks increase further, the NBU will stand ready to tighten its monetary policy.