Furthermore, terms-of-trade effects stemming from the past appreciation of the euro should positively affect real disposable income in the euro area, and thereby private consumption. Developments in financial markets are generally consistent with this overall picture. The short-term risks to our main scenario of a gradual recovery appear to be broadly balanced.
However, some risks to the sustainability of economic growth at the global level remain. These are related to the medium-term sustainability of public finances in major industrialised countries and, in this connection, the adjustment of external imbalances in some regions of the world. Turning to the outlook for prices, according to Eurostat’s latest flash estimate, HICP inflation in September was 2.1%.