In my baseline view, while I do believe it will likely take some time for economic activity and the labor market to fully recover from the pandemic shock, I do project right now that the economy will resume growth starting in the third quarter.
The heterogeneous development in economic activity mirrors a similar development in population growth, with increasing urbanisation. Since 2008, there has been a strong influx of mainly young people and people with jobs to the cities, while pensioners and unemployed people have moved out. Especially the 19–24-year-olds move to the cities, often in connection with education or training. But they increasingly stay there afterwards.