However, deriving the natural rate of interest from structural models is accompanied by the risk that the underlying narrow view of economic interactions may not be an adequate representation of reality. Basing estimates of the NRI on a distorted picture of real-world interactions would then lead to a distorted estimate of the NRI.
Obviously, this shows that the use of the concept of the natural rate of interest for policymaking comes with the problems of model and data uncertainty. 5.2  Monetary policy guided by estimates of the natural rate of interest  From the foregoing remarks it should come as no surprise that point estimates of the natural rate of interest vary immensely across methods.