The flow of macrodata received since May has been surprisingly strong, and GDP growth in the third quarter is estimated by many forecasters to have rebounded at perhaps a 25 to 30 percent annual rate.
This development is especially noteworthy when set in relief against the surge in new COVID-19 cases that were reported this summer in a number of U.S. states and the coincident flatlining in a number of high-frequency activity indicators that we follow to track the effect of the virus on economic activity.