There is the risk of a sharp slowdown in some advanced economies, above all in the United States, where the containment of inflation, also caused by a considerable increase in aggregate demand and in labour costs, requires a particularly vigorous monetary policy response. Global economic activity in any case remains exposed to possible resurgences of the pandemic.
In the Eurosystem’s projections of early June, euro-area growth in 2022 was lowered to 2.8 per cent from the 4.2 per cent forecast in December. This increase had already largely been achieved thanks to the strong recovery in 2021, and implies an expansion lower than 1 per cent over the course of this year.