“An Unwelcome Fall in Inflation?” Speech delivered at the Economics Roundtable, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, July 23, www.federalreserve.gov.
Table 1: Comparison of Private-Sector Forecasts 2003:Q3  2003:Q4  2003:Q4/ 2004:Q4/ 2002:Q4 2003:Q4  GDP (percent change) 1  Global Insight (8/11/03)  3.6  3.7  2.8  4.1  Blue Chip (8/10/03)  3.7  3.8  2.8  3.7  Macroeconomic Advisers (8/21/03)  4.2  4.2  3.1  4.0  Survey of Professional Forecasters (8/22/03)  3.5  3.9  2.8  3.8  Global Insight  6.2  6.2  6.2  5.9  Blue Chip  6.2  6.2  6.2  5.8  Macroeconomic Advisers  6.2  6.1  6.1  5.4  Survey of Professional Forecasters  6.2  6.1  6.1  5.8  Global Insight  1.5  1.0  1.7  1.5  Blue Chip  1.5  1.6  1.9  1.9  Macroeconomic Advisers  1.8  1.0  1.8  1.3  Survey of Professional Forecasters  1.5  1.4  1.8  2.0  Global Insight  1.3  1.1  1.4  1.7  Blue Chip  1.3  1.3  1.5  1.6  Macroeconomic Advisers  0.6  0.6  1.1  0.9  Survey of Professional Forecasters  1.4  1.5  1.5  1.8  Unemployment Rate (level)  2  1  CPI (percent change) 1  GDP Price Index (percent change) 1  1.