Considering that the probability calculated using the CPI excluding temporary effects has also been rising, the momentum in inflation could strengthen not only for energy prices but also for a variety of goods. Nevertheless, the inflation momentum has not been strong enough in terms of the 2 percent-passage probability.
Given that the temporary effects that have been pushing down prices thus far are projected to dissipate from the turn of fiscal 2022, the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI is highly likely to exceed 1.5 percent, whether temporarily or not. Moreover, depending on developments in crude oil prices, the uptrend in the CPI may strengthen further.