Accounting for  Secular Trends in Interest Rates, Returns on Capital, Earnings Yields, and Factor Shares, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 107(5), pp 614–620. M Marx, B Mojon and F R Velde (2017), Why Have Interest Rates Fallen far Below the Return on Capital, Banque de France Working Paper No. 630. 10 Deutsche Bundesbank, The natural rate of interest, Monthly Report, October 2017.
A rising need for IMF financing reflects a poor grade for the Fund’s surveillance efforts. Generally speaking, the more successful the surveillance, the less IMF financing is required. Of course, conditionality under Fund supported programs should be subject to the same test to demonstrate its effectiveness.