The UK government expects for this fiscal year to meet its deficit target of 7.9 percent of GDP, down from 9.3 percent of GDP in the previous one ending in April 2011. The budget forecasts however are based on the assumption that the economy will grow 1.7 percent in 2011 – in spite of economists’ recent forecasts of around 1.0 percent.
For instance, if China is excluded from the calculations, the remaining EMDEs are expected to contract much more severely this year, and the subsequent rebound would be insufficient to recover the lost ground. The case of Latin America is illustrative in this regard, with a GDP fall of 8.1 percent anticipated for 2020 and a modest 3.6 percent expansion in 2021.