Although (according to the National Bureau of Economic Research) the U.S. economy is technically in a recovery, job losses have remained significant this year, and capacity utilization in the industrial sector (the only sector for which estimates are available) is still low, suggesting that resource utilization for the economy as a whole is well below normal.
By conventional analyses, therefore, even if the pace of real activity picks up 5 considerably this year and next, persistent slack might result in continuing disinflation. A highly simplified, though not quantitatively unreasonable, calculation may help.