The fact that equities are more widely held today than in the past, implying that the risk of equities is more widely shared, is one reason that the equity premium may be lower in the future than it has been in the past.
12  Of course, a looming recession is likely also to lower expected dividends (bad for stocks) and lower interest rates (good for stocks). Generally, stock prices are a leading indicator, falling ahead of recessions and rising in advance of recoveries (although with many false signals).