We know that there have been, and will be again, periods of recession and recovery, though our ability to forecast the timing of those episodes is limited. We know from experience some things about the nature of inflation, including its characteristic persistence, and the things that can push it up or down.
We know some of the “big forces” at work on the global and local outlooks – a once in a century terms of trade event, for example, and a once in a century deleveraging event in major countries.