By contrast, the oil price increases of recent years appear to have had only a limited effect on core inflation (that is, inflation in the prices of goods other than energy and food), nor do they appear to have generated significant macroeconomic volatility.
By October 2018, however, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shifted from using phrases like “Brighter Prospects” and “Optimistic Markets” to highlighting “Challenges to Steady Growth.” The IMF cited escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, elevated policy uncertainty, dampened business and financial market sentiments, financial market volatility, and a slowing down of investment and trade.