In January 2012 we forecast a 1.5 per cent drop in GDP (0.4 per cent under a less unfavourable scenario) for 2012 and 2013; in the summer this forecast was revised to 2.2 per cent; in the end, the decline amounted to 4.5 per cent.
This result was due in part to the deceleration in international trade and the collapse in confidence in euro-area prospects, which amplified the effects of credit tightening and the budgetary adjustment.