And from April 2015 to July of this year, the IMF revised down 2016 growth from 3.8 percent to 3.1 percent. See the IMF’s World Economic Outlook at www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29.
To illustrate a counterfactual scenario in which national macroprudential and fiscal policies were deployed to lean against the wind, Figures 2 and 3 show the evolution of household credit and output (relative to the euro area aggregate) in Ireland in a simulation of the model proposed by Martin and Philippon (2017).