Looking ahead, the relative synchronisation of major economies’ central banks, insofar as they all experience a lack of inflation pressures, provides some reason for optimism, as does the success of these central banks in reversing the undue tightening of financial conditions in late 2018.
However, any indications that the advanced economies are slowing faster than expected as risks materialise could trigger renewed capital outflows from the emerging markets. Additional risks from geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions  Allow me to briefly discuss, albeit in more detail, how trade tensions, and more generally geopolitical uncertainties, can affect the environment for emerging markets.