Second, there is a possibility that a seasonal adjustment method used for major U.S. economic data had created some distortions due to the effects of the Lehman Shock, causing the data for the period from winter to early spring to be overvalued and those for the period toward summer to fall to be underestimated.
If this is the case, it means that the favorable data so far have exaggerated actual economic performance and the forthcoming data will be disappointing – showing a weaker picture than actual conditions. Attention should be paid to the risk that such distorted data could weaken expectations for recovery held by firms, households, and markets.