The data are quite consistent with Chinese growth in industrial output of something like 10 per cent, and GDP growth in the 7 to 8 per cent range. To be sure, that is a significant moderation from the growth in GDP of 10 per cent or more that we have often seen in China in the past five to seven years.
While it is not possible to pin the number down exactly, the evidence is consistent with an estimate below 5 per cent, perhaps around 4½ per cent. Given that the current unemployment rate is 5.2 per cent, this suggests that there is still spare capacity in our labour market.