The Research Department’s assessment is that the risks to the current forecast are: Uncertainty surrounding the markets’ response, including that of the foreign exchange market, to the increase in the federal funds rate and extension of quantitative easing in Europe—the creation of a split in the direction of change in monetary policy between the two blocs.
Uncertainty regarding the trend of world trade and of global growth against the background of 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  increasing calls to raise international trade barriers.