The World Bank issues a report each year called “Doing Business” which ranks countries in terms of how easy it is, or how difficult it is, to do business. In the last two years, we declined from being number 32 on that list, which is not great, to being 38 on the list, which is much less great.
This means that the path for rates truly expected by investors is likely to be materially higher than that suggested by plain forward rates. This greatly complicates the clarity of any guidance on the future path. A very simple way to see this is to compare market-based and survey-based expectations.