We continue to be faced with four key sources of uncertainty around the outlook for inflation. Each of these represents the potential for either upside or downside risk to the inflation outlook, and therefore needs to be assessed to ensure that our risks remain balanced 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  around the 2 per cent target.
But a study released a few years ago by the IMF suggested that, on average, emerging market spreads in the 1990s were much higher – twice as high or more – as in the period of globalisation and free capital flows leading up to World War I.