The Theil statistic suggests that the forecasters were adding some value in both periods, but with no major changes between the two. So we shouldn’t get too carried away by lower forecast errors in recent years.
They have no underlying claim: there is neither an issuer who is accountable and liable, nor are they backed by collateral. They are notional instruments, created using computing technology, which do not generate financial flows[8] or use value for their holders. Therefore, their value cannot be estimated from future income discounted to the present, like for real and financial assets.