3  Page 8 of 11  that most emerging markets have also become more resilient since the taper tantrum: the macroeconomic fundamentals have generally improved and the domestic financial markets have developed further. In particular, real policy rates are generally higher, inflation is within the target range in most of the inflation-targeting emerging markets, and both fiscal and current-account deficits have generally narrowed.
•  Finally, geopolitical risks in Russia and the Ukraine could weigh on exports. Oil prices are also a risk factor, which could derail the recovery. However, there are also upside risks. •  First, exports could perform better. Tourism receipts may surprise on the upside this year, as they did last year.