This is illustrated by the alternative projection scenarios (the baseline projection is flanked by mild and severe scenarios), as shown in Chart 2. In view of the uncertain economic and financial outcomes of the pandemic, the balance of risks is tilted to the downside.
Chart 2 Realised and projected output (indexed real GDP, Q4 2019 = 100)  https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2020/html/ecb.sp201006~e1d38a1ccc.en.html  2/12  07/10/2020  The ECB’s monetary policy in the pandemic: meeting the challenge  Sources: ECB staff macroeconomic projections and Eurostat. Notes: The projections refer to the September 2020 ECB staff macroeconomic projections.