I think it is fair to say that the overall performance of the U.S. economy has continued to surpass most forecasters’ expectations. The current cyclical upswing is now approaching six years in duration, and the economy has retained considerable vigor, with few signs of the imbalances and inflationary tensions that have disrupted past expansions.
Although the data for the fourth quarter are still incomplete, it is apparent that real gross domestic product posted an increase in the neighborhood of 3 percent over the four quarters of 1996.