Perhaps a better way of using the reference value – focusing on its implications for medium-term inflation – would be to compare it with a longer-run average growth rate for M2. Chart 2, for example, 15  This chart was published in the Federal Reserve Board's February 2000 Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.
BIS Review 25/2001  11  compares excess money growth relative to the reference value – using CBO's estimates for potential GDP growth – with the deviation of inflation from its target.