9 / 12  BIS central bankers' speeches  It is difficult to be precise about exactly how much this risk has increased, but our judgement has been that, should earlier trends have continued, the risk of future problems would have continued to increase.
A scenario we have focused on is the possibility of a future shock that causes households to abruptly reassess their past borrowing decisions. In this scenario, consumption might be wound back sharply to put balance sheets on a sounder footing. If this occurred, it could turn an otherwise manageable shock into something more serious.