The NBU has confirmed its ability to set and achieve its goals. The strengthening of the hryvnia was the key factor driving the rapid disinflation seen late last year. The currency appreciation offset the effects of robust consumer demand. How will consumer prices change further on? According to the NBU’s estimates, inflation continues to slow.
It will be below the 5% ±1 pp target range starting in January and throughout most of the year. However, inflation will accelerate in Q4 to 4.8% at year-end 2020.Therefore, it will return to the target range at the end of the year. This will be due to several factors.