In fiscal 2019, the rate of change is expected to remain at around 2 percent as inflation expectations rise. III. Risk Factors for Economic Activity and Prices Going Forward There are upside and downside risk factors to the baseline scenario for economic activity and prices that I have explained thus far. Next, I would like to talk about the major risk factors.
The largest risk factor for economic activity is developments in overseas economies. While it is true that the global economic growth momentum has been increasing, uncertainties regarding future developments have remained high. In particular, the U.S. economic policies and their impact on global financial markets warrant attention.