Real GDP growth is now projected to be 1.1 percent in 2019, 1.2 percent in 2020 and 1.4 percent in 2021. Compared with the June Eurosystem staff projections, growth for this year was revised down by 0.1 percentage points, and for next year by 0.2 percentage points. Notwithstanding the downward revisions to the growth outlook, the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside.
Furthermore, I would characterise the distribution of risks as bimodal. In one scenario, global trade tensions and Brexit could be resolved positively, while in another scenario, trade-related uncertainty could linger and risks associated with a disorderly Brexit could materialise.