ECB (2019), “The economic implications of rising protectionism: a euro area and global perspective”, Economic Bulletin, Issue 3. 11. IMF (2022), “Global Trade and Value Chains During the Pandemic”, World Economic Outlook. The IMF’s estimates suggest that in the face of a large shock, greater diversification would reduce the decline in GDP by about half. Recent events in the United States illustrate these risks.
This model worked extremely well, particularly in the times of South Africa’s economic isolation from the outside world. It is doubtful, however, if this model is still the most effective strategy to maintain in the new environment.