In this, entirely conventional, textbook resource-switching story the economy would have emerged better-balanced. We would not have expected any material or sustained interruption in the incomes the economy could sustainably generate over time. If anything, the rate of potential GDP growth might have been expected to accelerate.
In many ways, in fact, it was New Zealand’s story in the early 1990s, when we had had corporate and government debt excesses, and a financial crisis of our own, to work through. Then, markedly lower real interest rates and a lower exchange rate facilitated a step-up in economic growth, exports, and productivity.