This base-case projection reflects Governing Council's best judgment about the most likely outcome, based on a number of assumptions. Over the years, we have become increasingly transparent in describing our projections, and the underlying assumptions. This January, we will include in our Update projection tables on global economic growth – tables that previously had only been included in full Monetary Policy Reports.
Accordingly, the aggregate household debt service burden, defined as the ratio of households’ required debt payments to their disposable personal income, rose considerably in recent years, returning last year to close to its previous cyclical peak of the mid-1980s, where it has remained. Neither wealth nor the burden of debt is distributed evenly across households.