This decline is particularly evident in exports to Europe and the United States, and in exports of automobile-related goods, IT-related goods, and capital goods. Deterioration in external demand has likely bottomed out due to the easing of public health measures in many countries. However, it will take a considerable amount of time for countries to recover from the impact of COVID-19.
These two developments are taking place at a time when exogenous shocks (be it high oil prices, 9/11, or natural disasters) have become more common place and at a time when Governments are facing strong political mandates to improve social and economic conditions.