Statistical models are often criticised for systemically neglecting such “high-severity-lowprobability” risks.5 One reason for this is that many models use the past as the basis for the future when assessing the probability of certain events. This weakness could be referred to as the chicken fallacy. A chicken that is fed by a farmer every morning may expect this pattern to continue in the future.
But the discussion has also highlighted and underlined important challenges ahead. I will briefly go through some of these challenges and structure my further remarks by the main surprises during the financial crisis:   The dynamic of contagions and market dynamics,    the spillovers into the real economy and    the vulnerability of countries.