I would now like to turn to the part that monetary policy plays in this respect. In order to identify this contribution, an analysis of the monetary policy in the years preceding the crisis is essential.
Different analytical methods – such as a comparison of central bank interest rates with the forecast of a Taylor rule – point to the fact that monetary policy in most industrialised countries has followed a rather expansionary stance in the second half of this decade. This was particularly the case in the USA after the New Economy bubble had burst.