No one knows that better than I do, of course, because not so long ago, I was sitting where you are, enjoying the dinner provided by CSBS and hearing the perspective from Washington. I’m still enjoying the dinner tonight, but find I am now, so to speak, also on the menu.
Speaking broadly, a recession begins when GDP starts declining, and it ends when GDP stops declining. The end of a recession is usually termed the low point or "trough." This lagging pattern can be seen clearly for commercial banks but is not as evident for credit unions because of differing reporting schedules.