So with government bond yields around historical lows in recent years, should that be reflected in the discount rates used in actuarial calculations? How long is this period of low rates going to last? I’m not going to answer the question directly. But again it’s useful to think of it in terms of economic growth rates.
By one indicator, at least, small business confidence appears to be improving; a development that should be important for community banks. The National Federation of Independent Businesses surveys its members regularly about their sales outlook for the coming three-month period. Those surveys show optimism rising since the summer of 2003.