But now that is settling down and stabilising. Clearly, global factors are causing some uncertainty – there is the risk of a trade war, for example. But the US economy is still very strong and is being supported by a budgetary stimulus, and the euro area’s internal dynamics are also very robust. So we are not unduly worried.
Taken together, we see further confirmation of our main scenario of a gradual improvement in economic activity this year, and a broadening and strengthening in the course of 2004. This assessment has received support from recently published forecasts of official and private sources, as well as from developments in financial markets.