From a somewhat long-term perspective, the most important point is whether China would succeed in making a smooth transition from high economic growth to moderate growth. The high-growth period in Japan started in the middle of the 1950s and ended at the beginning of the 1970s.
The average growth rate between these periods was 9.7 percent, nearly identical to the 10.1 percent registered by the Chinese economy since the 1990s (Chart 8). As was the case in Japan, the transition from high economic growth to stable growth will not be an easy path.