This assessment is in line with indicators for business and consumer confidence which, while declining over the past few months, generally remain at levels that continue to point to ongoing growth. Our main scenario remains that of real GDP growth broadly in line with trend potential.
The fundamentals of the euro area economy are sound, profitability has been sustained, employment growth has been robust and unemployment rates have fallen to levels not seen for 25 years. Consumption growth should therefore continue to contribute to economic expansion, in line with real disposable income, and investment growth should provide ongoing support.