However, the protectionist trade actions, particularly those involving the United States and China, were also top of mind for us as they are still weighing on the global outlook. We have incorporated in our forecast the expected effects of tariffs imposed to date, as well as the dampening effects on confidence from threats of future measures.
All told, we estimate that this amounts to a drag on the global economy of 0.3 per cent by the end of 2020. That is a big cost – it adds up to more than $ billion. This represents a two-sided risk for Canadian monetary policy.