These forecasts are based on the assumption that the reform and privatization programme will be implemented smoothly and according to the agreed time schedule. Domestic downside risks are related to reform implementation, as well as the impact of excessive taxation on economic activity.
There are also external risks to the forecast, which are linked, among others, to a slowdown in global economic activity, an increase in investors’ risk aversion due to disturbances in international financial markets, tensions in foreign exchange markets, and the rise in protectionism worldwide, as well as a possible resurgence of the refugee crisis. Finally, there are upside risks too.