of Business Economists  Macroeconomic Advisers  DRI  Robert Gordon  Downtown Economists Club 4.5  5.1  5-1/4  5.5  4.9  5.6  NAIRU (percent)  3.3  3.5  3.2  3.5  3.2  1  3.1  Potential GDP growth (percent)  Median of 15 forecasts.
NAIRU varies according to Kalman-filter estimate from an equation based on the PCE deflator; equation is estimated through 1998, with some judgmental decline in the NAIRU since then. Long-run NAIRU concept. Short-run concept that includes supply shocks is 4-1/2 percent. NAIRU varies with demographics. Potential GDP growth varies year to year with capital deepening, etc. Median of 35 forecasts.