The latest data on capital goods orders, for example, suggest some softening in equipment spending gains. Surveys of businesses, such as the Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers index and similar regional indexes, have generally moved lower over the past six months, reversing much of the run-up seen in 2017 and late 2016.
The National Federation of Independent Business’s Small Business Optimism Index is also lower than its mid-2018 peak, although it remains well above the levels of 2015 and much of 2016. The weaker foreign outlook also acts as a crosscurrent to the modal outlook. While strong foreign growth provided tailwinds early last year, foreign growth  -3projections have been revised down repeatedly more recently.