Apart from the direct impact on the index, it is also likely to feed through into the wider inflationary process through higher wage demands, of which there is some evidence. It is generally believed that food prices are highly sensitive to monsoon performance, but this belief has been tested over the past few years.
Forecasts for inflation (and often for other key macroeconomic variables), the assumptions on which the forecasts are based and the extent of uncertainty surrounding the forecasts are, to varying degrees, spelled out. A few central banks even publish a future interest rate path – albeit one heavily conditioned by assumptions which are almost certain not to be realised, for one reason or another.