Developments in overseas economies  I have so far outlined the most likely projection. However, any kind of projection is subject to upside and downside risks. The first risk concerns developments in overseas economies. The global economy has been expanding strongly, registering high growth of around 5 percent since 2004.
It is the first time since the early 1970s that the global economy has registered such high growth over a period of this length: until 2003, the growth rate was around 3 to 4 percent.