4/7  4  Adjustment scenarios and policy responses  One should not forget, however, that current account adjustments in industrial countries historically are something different than balance of payments crises in emerging market economies. Accordingly, apocalyptic adjustment scenarios are not justified from the current perspective.
This is supported by recent empirical studies showing that the history of current account adjustments in industrial countries in the past does not validate the pessimistic hypothesis that goes along with an disorderly unwinding scenario (i.e. cumulative effect of shortfalls in GDP, massive currency depreciation and sharply rising interest rates).