19 Through much of the recovery, spending on durable goods far exceeded the rates of growth that had been observed before the COVID-19 crisis. As a result, households may curtail their purchases going forward in order to bring the stock of consumer durables back in line with long-run levels of demand. 18  -9drag for spending on services that require personal contact.
For example, research found that using household inflation expectations in an otherwise standard Phillips curve framework fits US inflation data better over a large sample. This includes the aftermath of the great financial crisis and was put forward as one factor explaining the “missing” disinflation puzzle in the United States.16 ECB staff find similar evidence for predicting wage growth in the euro area.