So, in thinking about the appropriate stance of monetary policy today, we need to make an assessment about the likely state of the economy over the next couple of years. We need to make forecasts. How much output will be produced in the economy in 18 months' time? How fast will prices be rising in two years' time?
Unlike in a board game, however, the result does not hinge on the luck of the dice. For competition motivates firms to develop new products or more efficient production processes. This enhances their productivity and boosts long-term economic growth.