The first approach estimates the extent to which the deterioration (or improvement) in the sovereign CDS spreads for the three countries with a stabilisation programme supported by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund – Greece, Ireland and Portugal – affected the CDS spread for Italy or Spain.
As for the outlook, overall prices are likely to be flat for the time being despite the continued fall expected in 1  This report was written based on data and information available when the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting was held on December 17, 1999.