Inflation is expected to pick up gradually, but to remain low. The graph also shows the range of uncertainty, based on historical experience. While the public focus is normally on the central scenario, it is important to recall that the range of possible outcomes is quite large.
During 2006 for example, the price of 95 octane petrol in Gauteng increased from R5,49 per litre in January to peak at R7,04 per litre in August. Fortunately, as a result of falling international prices, we have experienced three successive declines totaling R1,07. The contribution of transport costs to CPIX inflation provides an indication of the direct inflationary impact of petrol price increases.