The SPF data show expected annual percentage changes one-year and two-years ahead of latest available (i.e. Dec 2022) HICP data available at the time the Q1 2023 round was conducted (i.e. for Dec 2023 and Dec 2024) and for the calendar year 2025. The Survey of Monetary Analysts and the December 2022 Broad Macroeconomic Projection exercise (BMPE) by Eurosystem staff show quarterly forecasts.
The cut-off date for data included in the ECB staff macroeconomic projections was 30 November. As shown in Chart 1, the ECB tracks several indicators of underlying inflation. Each indicator has its advantages and disadvantages: monitoring a range of indicators helps to guard from any specific approach being affected by idiosyncratic factors and model uncertainty.