What will be the overall state of the Ukrainian economy? We have revised the forecast for real GDP growth in 2022 to 3.4%, down from 3.8%. The growth will be underpinned by consumer demand and still rather favorable terms of trade.
Yet the potential for growth will be limited by the rather heavy fallout from the coronavirus crisis, relatively high energy prices, and shortages of certain raw materials, especially in the first half of the year. In 2023–2024, real GDP growth will accelerate to about 4% per year. This will be due to the following factors: Geopolitical conditions will stabilize during 2022.