Our new annual growth forecast for 2016 is 1.4 per cent; however, much of the downward revision in that figure is because of the weakness we saw in the final quarter of last year. On a fourthquarter-over-fourth-quarter basis, growth for 2016 is projected to be a more solid 1.9 per cent.
Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound,” Business Economics, Vol 49, No 2 (2014): 65–73. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  along with targeted macroprudential actions, are more effective lines of defence. These defences have been strengthened a number of times since 2008.14 Conversely, there are risks that a premature withdrawal of monetary stimulus could undermine the expansion.