Many thanks for the invitation to give a talk at the Council on Foreign Relations, which does immensely valuable work to keep the flame of rules-based multilateralism and the liberal international order alive, in a rather challenging political environment. Hence it is a great honor and pleasure to address and discuss with you today.
The risks to the inflation outlook appear to be broadly balanced for 2019 and 2020. The main upward risks are the petitions for electricity rates and transport fare adjustments, and the proposed increase in the excise taxes of alcoholic beverages and cigarettes. The risk of a prolonged El Niño episode has gone down.