In such environment it would be particularly costly if delayed monetary action compromises on price stability, and, not less important, on the remarkably solid anchoring of medium-term inflation expectations.
The canonical paper by Douglas Staiger, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson (1997), “How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?,” in Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer, eds., Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press) puts the 95 percent confidence interval at 1-1/2 percentage points on either side of the point estimate. 2.