This is also the case in other small, open economies. There is one aspect of forecasting that I haven’t mentioned yet – psychology. How can it be measured and modelled? Well, that is next to impossible, I think. Nevertheless, it still applies that psychology plays a very large role, and also did so during the most recent crisis.
But how should the conditions I have just outlined be translated into action? I believe that this is where we need to go beyond the functional narrative. 4  Juncker, J.-C. et al, “Completing Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union”, June 2015. 5  See Coeuré, B., “Investing in Europe: towards a new convergence process”, Athens, 9 July 2014.