By 1996 it was down to only 7.5 percent of workers in physically demanding jobs, and by the time any of my suggested measures take effect, the share should be on the order of 3 or 4 percent - not zero, but probably not high enough to argue against measures to raise the retirement age at a gradual rate.
But if the accuracy of our economic forecasts is inadequate, it will be hard to maintain monetary policy efficiency or communication consistency. This is why we need to redouble our efforts to strengthen our forecasting capabilities.