These result not just from the introduction of new trading arrangements, but from a breakdown in some of the arrangements that make trade possible. For example, regulatory and customs issues, border infrastructure issues and legal uncertainties. People are likely to feel this in their everyday lives.
This would be likely to have immediately damaging consequences for trade and the functioning of supply chains for production, distribution and retailing. Models and forecasting tools can be used to estimate the impact of long-run changes to trade arrangements. However, they are less suited for predicting the short-run effects and potential disruption arising from a breakdown in those arrangements.