When we couple this with expected lower exports of agricultural products as a result of the natural disasters, it is possible that we will see a small dent in our foreign reserves towards the end of this year. Nonetheless, at the moment, our official reserves continue to remain comfortable, at just under $ billion, or enough to pay for 5.5 months of retained imports.
Inflation, another key macro-economic indicator which we monitor closely, spiked in June to 5.3 percent on the back of price hikes in local agricultural market items following the cyclones. This effect will be temporary, and in the near-to-medium term, we forecast inflation to be stabilised by the existing low world commodity prices. Our end-year number for inflation is closer to 3 percent.