But, even with such velocity behavior this year, when inflation is expected to still be higher than is consistent with our long-run objective of reasonable price stability, the broader aggregates could well grow around the upper bounds of these ranges. The debt aggregate probably will expand around the middle of its range this year.
If you're a BSPer, you will have a methodology for removing what we call exogenous variables. Which of the nice things that happen are due to us? Which of the nice things that happen is pure luck? But it could also go the other way: which of the bad things that happen are just pure bad luck?