4 This may be related to the authors’ second conjecture on why initially high levels of inflation are associated with lower sacrifice ratios—namely, that high inflation is associated with large global supply shocks (Cecchetti and others, 2023, p. 18). It is analytically distinct, however, in that they do not emphasize the timely monetary policy response to those shocks.
5 This point is elaborated upon in Chair Powell’s 2022 Jackson Hole speech; see Powell (2022b). 3  -4in real time, to influence expected future economic conditions is a difficult task in the best of circumstances. It is all that much more difficult when the economy is experiencing a once-in-a-century disturbance of worldwide significance.