While it remains to be seen how Brexit will play out from a practical perspective, an existential crisis for the euro area and the EU more broadly no longer seems so close. Against that, geopolitical risks in Asia have increased. These are the low probability, high-impact events that can only ever be a risk to one’s forecasts.
Until something actually happens, they do not and should not affect the central scenario. Even if you knew for sure that an event happened, the economic effects are often difficult to predict. Financial risks will also be ever-present as risks to a macroeconomic outlook, and they are almost as hard as geopolitical risks to quantify.