Effects of the financial crisis on the real economy  External environment At the global level, the outlook for advanced economies has worsened significantly while the financial crisis has started to spread to emerging markets. In 2009, all major advanced economies will experience weak or zero growth at the same time. The outlook for the US economy remains very gloomy.
Forecasts by international organisations see 2009 average growth near or below zero. The growth outlook for emerging market economies has weakened dramatically. The IMF and the EU Commission see global growth at 2.2 and 2.3% in 2009, respectively, after 3.7% this year. The depth and duration of the global economic downturn will crucially depend on the development of the financial crisis.