By contrast, there were several indications that M3 was temporarily distorted upwards in early-1999 as a result of the changeover to Stage Three of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), also against the background of historically low long-term rates. Thus, at that point in time it was difficult to see whether M3 growth in early-1999 would reveal upside risks to price stability.
At the same time, the information from the second pillar of our strategy showed clear downside risks to future price developments in April. The situation was different in November. Here it was clear that monetary growth had increased considerably over the course of 1999. The three-month average stood at 5.9% for the period from July to September 1999.