In its statement at the end of the September meeting, the FOMC noted that it anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to 2 percent over the medium term.
The one area of risk that needs more thought is so-called potential future exposure. At any particular point in time only a small fraction of the notional value of derivative contracts are in the money – that is, have a positive market value.