BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Therefore, the Bank’s baseline scenario is that overseas economies – mainly advanced economies – are likely to continue to recover, and Japan’s exports are expected to head for a moderate increase. II. Price developments in Japan  Let me turn now to price developments in Japan.
As I mentioned at the outset, the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (excluding fresh food) – which was minus 0.4 percent in April last year when QQE was introduced – subsequently turned positive and increased further to around 1¼ percent recently (Chart 6). These developments reflect an improvement in the output gap and a rise in inflation expectations.