For details of the estimation procedures of the natural rate of interest, see Kei Imakubo et al., "The Natural Yield Curve: Its Concept and Measurement," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series, no.15-E-5 (2015). The shaded area indicates the 95 percent confidence interval for the natural rate of interest. Sources: Consensus Economics Inc., "Consensus Forecasts"; Bloomberg; Bank of Japan, etc.
17  5  Chart 6  Japan's Economy Corporate Profits  Output Gap and Prices 4  y/y % chg.  %  2  8  2  1  7  0  0  -2  -1  Unemployment Rate  s.a., %  6.0  s.a., % Unemployment rate  -4  6  5.0  5  4.5  4  4.0  3  3.5  2  3.0  1  2.5  -2  -6  -8  5.5  Ratio of current profits to sales (all industries and enterprises)  -3 Output gap (left scale)  -4  CPI (all items less fresh food and energy, right scale)  -10 CY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17  -5  0 CY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17  2.0 CY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17  Notes: 1.