But if the adjustment were more rapid, the disinflationary effects of the acceleration in productivity would have been less powerful and would dissipate more rapidly once productivity growth stabilizes. As you can imagine, with so few observations, the data do not speak loudly about the speed or length of this adjustment process.
As a consequence of this uncertainty about the speed of adjustment, I use a range of estimates - a tenyear moving average to capture the case of very sluggish adjustment and a three-year moving average to illustrate a more rapid adjustment. I view this as plausible range, but as I noted, it is difficult to identify the precise speed of adjustment within this range.