As noted in the text, however, most changes in the funds rate are at least partially anticipated, implying that the unexpected component of most funds rate decisions is considerably less than 25 basis points. The effect on year-ahead rate expectations of a typical change in the funds rate is correspondingly reduced, to 5 basis points or less.
8  To determine which statements surprised markets we used a number of sources, including staff commentaries prepared at the Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, articles in the Wall Street Journal, pre-meeting commentary by a leading financial firm, and pre-meeting surveys of primary dealers and other market participants.