Our forecasts suggest that GDP growth will exceed the growth rate of potential output and be driven by continued accommodative monetary policy, population growth, high terms of trade and, in the outer period, by the budgetary stimulus announced in the 2017 Budget. A positive output gap is forecast with inflation gradually approaching the mid-point of the target band.
18  i)  Domestic risks  The main domestic risks we face lie with migration and the housing market. A sharp decline in net immigration Since early 2012 net permanent and long-term working age immigration has totaled 220,000 – equivalent to a 6 percent increase in the working age population. Migrants have mainly been in the 15-29 year age group.