The January Outlook Report assumes that Dubai crude oil prices will rise moderately from the recent 35 U.S. dollars per barrel to the range of 45–50 dollars per barrel toward the end of fiscal 2017, which marks the end of the projection period.
The contribution of energy items to the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI (all items less fresh food) is estimated to be slightly more than minus 1 percentage point and is at its highest level recently. However, under the aforementioned assumption of crude oil prices, the contribution is projected to decrease.