In what follows, I will describe the risks that I am paying particular attention to. First is developments in overseas economic activity and prices, and in global financial and capital markets. Central banks have made rapid policy interest rate hikes since 2022 in order to combat strong inflationary pressure.
Owing in part to the effects of these rate hikes, global inflationary pressure has started to show signs of easing. The Bank's baseline scenario  6  assumes that the pace of monetary tightening will become moderate and its effects on economic activity will be only relatively modest.