In my baseline view, while I do believe it will likely take some time for economic activity and the labor market to fully recover from the pandemic shock, I do project right now that the economy will begin to grow and that the unemployment rate will begin to decline starting in the second half of this year.
Consumer spending has been relatively robust—rising at more than a 3 percent annual rate in the three months ending in November—but business fixed investment has been sluggish— increasing only 1-1/2 percent in the third quarter—and has changed little, on net, since the middle of 2014.