The euro area fiscal stance is projected to be expansionary in 2018 and to become broadly neutral over 2019–20. Also the external environment remains supportive. The expected continuation of the broad-based expansion in global demand should support euro area exports. In particular, growth in the United States is expected to accelerate on the back of solid investment and consumption data and significant fiscal stimulus.
Our assessment that broad-based economic growth will continue is largely echoed in the June 2018 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area. Real GDP is projected to increase by 2.1% in 2018, 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. While we still find that the risks to the growth outlook are balanced, those related to global factors have become more prominent.