A weaker investment trajectory reflecting continued CEO caution would probably not derail the current recovery, but it would certainly put the more-optimistic growth projections for 2004 out of reach and would substantially slow the absorption of unemployed resources. I have not mentioned the trade sector.
Net exports have been a drag on U.S. growth; indeed, in the second quarter, net exports deducted (in an arithmetic sense) a hefty 1-1/2 percentage points from U.S. real GDP growth.