The recession was global, and so too have been the recent signs of recovery. As a consequence, the demand for U.S. exports has been increasing lately after falling sharply in the first half of the year.
However, with the firming of domestic demand, imports have also begun to increase, and, on net, the external sector appears to be a roughly neutral influence on overall economic activity at present. All told, I expect that the recovery in U.S. economic activity will proceed at a moderate pace in the second half of this year before strengthening some in 2010.