With respect to the decline in HICP inflation in September, this is closely related to a relatively strong fall in food prices (from 1.8% in August to 1.4% in September 1998), which account for almost one-quarter of the total HICP. Such monthly changes are certainly very difficult to interpret.
However, I may point out that food prices display a larger degree of volatility owing to their seasonal pattern. Third, taking into account distorting factors such as calendar effects, underlying developments in euro area-wide real GDP have remained fairly stable. Economic expansion was broadly unchanged in the first half of 1998 from the solid growth seen in the second half of 1997.