These figures primarily reflect the much improved external environment. Against this backdrop, the ECB staff back in September expected annual average growth for 2004 to be in a range of 1.6% and 2.2%, for 2005 in a range of 1.8% and 2.8%. This corresponds with median values of 1.9% and 2.3%. As with any forecast, there are risks to this one, too.
First and foremost, there is the oil price risk. In this context, we of course have to take into account that the level of dependency on oil in the euro area is lower than it was during the oil crises of the 1970s and early 1980s. This reduces the negative effects of a rise in the oil price on euro-area growth.