However, one still cannot  6  dismiss the view that the inverted yield curve in the United States, in which short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, is a signal of future economic downturn.
In addition, since developments in employment tend to lag behind economic activity, if the U.S. economy decelerates faster than expected, the unemployment rate could rise by more than expected, following in the wake of such an economic slowdown. In terms of uncertainties surrounding the U.S. economy, I would like to add the risk that financial conditions will also lead to an economic downturn.