I did this earlier this year in a speech in Melbourne,1 where I identified a number of domestic imbalances in previous cycles: high inflation, a wage surge, overvalued asset prices, excessive physical investment and excessive credit growth. Not all of these were present towards the end of earlier expansions, but usually two or more were.
In looking at the Australian economy at present, it is hard to see evidence of any of these imbalances. •  Underlying inflation is about 2¼ per cent, rising to 3 per cent over the forecast horizon. •  Wages are growing at somewhere between 3 and 4 per cent.