As the pandemic recedes, we can expect consumers to shift back to spending more on services, and this should take some pressure off global demand for goods. We can also expect supply chains to normalize. But predicting how long this will take is difficult. And the war in Ukraine is compounding this difficulty, as it could also have implications for global supply chains.
As you might expect, we have been working hard to better understand and track supply chain disruptions—our near-term outlook for inflation depends importantly on how they evolve. We’re closely tracking new and different sources of data that tell us more about shortages, logistics and shipping costs. What is clear is that supply chains remain highly disrupted.