Given recent events, some people might naturally wonder if there is a connection between the two vulnerabilities we’ve described and the situation at Home Capital. While we don’t generally discuss individual financial institutions, I can say our assessment is that the situation reflected firm-specific factors.
2 The analysis of forecast errors presented here uses data from 1986 to 2015 from the Federal Reserve Bank of  Philadelphia’s November Survey of Professional Forecasters. For more on the construction of forecast errors, see Reifschneider and Tulip (2007) and Board of Governors (2014). 3 The short-term interest rate used in this analysis is the three-month Treasury bill rate.