The timing of the recovery is very uncertain, and the more pessimistic forecasts see a low growth scenario for at least another two years. Even the more optimistic forecasts, which see some recovery later this year, have had to continually push out the timing of the recovery against the initial expectation of a recovery in early 2002.
Adding to this sobering outlook is the uncertain effect that the outbreak of SARS will have not only on the Asian economies (which was the one region that was expected to show significant positive growth this year) but on the tourist industry world-wide.