Source: For FOMC, Summary of Economic Projections, available on the Board’s website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm; for Blue Chip, Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Financial Forecasts; for CBO, Congressional Budget Office (The Budget and Economic Outlook, 10-Year Economic Projections).
This means that the inflation and output gaps do not capture all the impact of external events on the domestic economy and, accordingly, central banks react to the US monetary conditions (Figure 14 for the case of México). As Rey (2013) has suggested, the U.S. monetary policy is a key determinant of the so-called global financial cycle.