These predictions include (1) that all commodity prices should move proportionally in response to changes in monetary policy (in fact, oil prices have risen sharply since the spring as other commodity prices have generally stabilized); (2) that the dollar should have rapidly depreciated as the oil price rose (in fact, the dollar has been broadly stable during 2004); (3) that inflation expectations should have increased substantially (but long-term nominal interest rates, the level of inflation compensation implicit in inflation-indexed bond yields, and survey measures of inflation expectations concur in showing no such rise); and (4) that general inflation, though lagging commodity-price inflation, should also rise over time (but inflation excluding energy prices remains quite low).
In the United States the first interest rate rise came 14 months after the end of QE. In the case of the ECB, that would mean that if QE were to end in September 2018, the first rate increase would be in November 2019. Some market participants are even reckoning with 2020. Do you feel comfortable with such expectations?