The most recent forecasts of the main international institutions and private analysts concur with those of the Eurosystem in indicating that price growth in the euro area will remain high this year and then fall decisively in 2023, later returning to levels of around 2 per cent; the prices of financial assets linked to consumer prices confirm the anchoring of long-term expectations.
We are aware of the fact that an assessment of the risk of a de-anchoring of expectations from the inflation aim based exclusively on their current level would be dangerous. Given that economic theory and historical experience show that a de-anchoring could occur abruptly and in a non-linear way, it is crucial to consider carefully the risk that long‑term inflation expectations could rise suddenly.