Risk to economic activity  The October 2013 Outlook Report puts particular stress on the following five factors as upside and downside risks to the Bank’s baseline scenario for the economy (or real GDP growth rates).
•  Performance of overseas economies: warranting close attention are the effects of new energy sources and consequences of fiscal problems in the United States, European debt problems, China’s excess production capacity and debt issues, and economic developments together with developments in the global financial markets in some emerging and commodity-exporting economies that are facing current account deficits.