In other words, if crude oil prices had not declined, the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI this summer would be higher by about 1 percentage point than what is observed. Furthermore, unless crude oil prices continue to decline, the negative contribution to the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI will eventually dissipate.
Although international trade in goods, services, and assets rose markedly after World War II, a persistent dispersion of current account balances across countries did not emerge until recent years. But, as the U.S. deficit crossed 4 percent of GDP in 2000, financed with the current account surpluses of other countries, the widening dispersion of current account balances became more evident.