Under this scenario we could expect the economy to begin its bounce-back in the September quarter and for that bounce-back to strengthen from there. If this is how things play out, the economy could be expected to grow very strongly next year, with GDP growth of perhaps 6– 7 per cent, after a fall of around 6 per cent this year.
There is though quite a lot of uncertainty around the numbers, with the exact profile of the recovery depending not only upon when the restrictions are lifted but also on the resolution of the uncertainty that people feel about the future.