As massive capital inflows have been observed in some emerging economies since 2016, there is the risk of an increasing impact should there be a reversal of funds. Moreover, geopolitical risks have been heightening, including with regard to North Korea. Negotiations on the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union (EU) and the effects they will have are also risks to the outlook.
In the longer run, I believe that particular attention must continue to be paid to the growing protectionist mood of recent years. The establishment of supply chains through trade and direct investment has long been driving global economic growth. If the protectionist mood gains traction, this will limit trade and direct investment, making it necessary to rebuild existing supply chains.