By the November meeting, financial market volatility had declined and the Chinese economy was continuing to grow strongly. Earlier downside risks to global growth had diminished somewhat and it was becoming clear that global GDP would record a very strong increase for 2010 as a whole. Domestically, employment had continued to grow very quickly.
Although normalisation and the consequent moves to higher policy and bond rates are probably one of the most expected and anticipated consensus trades that the collective market has ever anticipated, two things remain uncertain – namely timing and the degree of adjustment, both in the US and elsewhere.