All peripheral countries – except Cyprus – are projected to see some export growth this year. These achievements are reflected in current accounts increasingly reverting to positive balances. And Germany is part of this rebalancing equation. Since 2007, Germany’s current account surplus vis-à-vis the euro area has shrunk continuously from 4½% of GDP to 2% of GDP.
As business investment in Germany is projected to pick up in 2014 and 2015, this rebalancing should continue. The progress that these abstract figures reflect is also visible in more concrete events. For example, Ireland and Spain have exited their financial support programmes without any friction. And Portugal is planning to leave its adjustment programme in the first half of this year.