We’ve come a long way since last spring, but reopenings over the past year have been uneven, so it will still be some time before we repair all the economic damage. Supply bottlenecks will likely hinder the quick expansion of production in some industries in the next few months and raise some costs—in some cases significantly.
The progress in reopening has been slower in countries that are among our largest trading partners, weighing on U.S. growth by reducing demand for U.S. exports. But even with those impediments, I believe the strong recovery will keep rolling forward. Let me walk through the evidence for that optimistic view.