The main risks to this scenario seem to be to the upside. A more robust rebound than foreseen for the United States, the lagged effect of high government outlays on output, and the probable impact of structural reforms, could contribute to this outcome.7 As with other emerging economies, international volatility has affected financial assets in Mexico.
Over the year, the yield curve shifted downward along with that of the United States, reflecting the perception that U.S. monetary normalization would be gradual and not imminent. Since the end of July, however, market sentiment has been moving in the opposite direction, thus reversing some of the flattening of the yield curve.