It is in effect an island in the sea of the European Union, where about 60 percent of its exports are headed and 80 percent of its imports derive (Chart 1). Japan is far more populous. The Japanese economy is about nine times as large as the Swiss economy. Nevertheless, there are similarities.
The third factor is how COVID-19 will affect private consumption and other economic activities. Depending on the course of COVID-19, upward pressure from pent-up demand could weaken. On the other hand, if the need for vigilance against COVID-19 lessens significantly, private consumption could be pushed up. This is also the case for international tourism.