The improvement in security assumed in the forecast will favor further growth in exports, and remittances from labor migrants will not be lower than before the war. On the other hand, the reconstruction of the country will require large volumes of imports. Moreover, migration will remain strong as security risks persist.
The risks surrounding this favourable outlook for economic growth are broadly balanced over the shorter term. At longer horizons, the balance of risks remains on the downside, stemming mainly from external factors. Such factors include fears of a rise in protectionist pressures, the possibility of further increases in oil prices and concerns about possible disorderly developments due to global imbalances.