Specifically, the medians of the Policy Board members’ forecasts of the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI for all items less fresh food presented in the January 2016 Outlook Report were 0.1 percent for fiscal 2015, 0.8 percent for fiscal 2016, and, on a basis excluding the direct effects of the scheduled consumption tax hike, 1.8 percent for fiscal 2017.
Comparing these with the forecasts presented in October 2015, that for fiscal 2016 is lower and that for fiscal 2017 is more or less unchanged. The downward revision of the forecast for the CPI is due to the assumption of lower crude oil prices. 1 II.