As explained in the text, the effect of demographics on the equilibrium federal funds rate is based on the study of Gagnon, Johannsen, and LopezSalido (2016), who emphasize that demographic changes since the 1980s would imply a reduction of 125 basis points in the equilibrium federal funds rate.
However, this number includes the effects of demographics on the labor force, which have already been included in the growth effect. As suggested by figure 12 of Gagnon, Johannsen, and Lopez-Salido (2016), adjusting for the effects of employment would trim about 50 basis points from the total effect (the distance between the solid-blue and dashed-green lines as of 2015).