We place particular emphasis on this distinction since the forward-looking exercises are undertaken upon the assumption of constant shortterm interest rates and constant exchange rates of the euro. Our projections are then intended to provide a purely counterfactual scenario, which should not be understood as a predictor of the most likely macroeconomic outcome, still less a benchmark for expectations.
It should be absolutely clear, in fact, that the Council is always ready to act to fend off dangers to price stability that might emerge from whatever source of evidence, be it model-based econometric exercises or more specific assessments of real and monetary developments.