BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  which inflation is projected to return in the long run once the effects of any shocks to the economy have fully played out.
3 As can be seen from the figure, this estimated trend drifts higher over the 1960s and 1970s, implying that during this period there was no stable “anchor” to which inflation could be expected to eventually return – a conclusion generally supported by other procedures for estimating trend inflation.