The fall in crude oil prices could also lead to a reduction in fixed investment in the oil-related industries and to a decline in U.S. exports because of weaker-than-expected overseas economic growth, including that of oil-producing countries. Besides, it should be noted that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised downward its latest forecast for global growth from the previous forecast.
The downward revision is mainly attributable to investment weakness caused by diminished expectations about medium-term growth in many advanced and emerging economies, despite the expectation for positive effects of the decline in crude oil prices. Taking these factors into account, I am personally paying closer attention to downside risks to overseas economies, developments in which are a key determinant of Japan’s exports.