Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside owing to (1) uncertainty over the global economy, particularly emerging economies, (2) volatile developments in financial markets, and (3) the repercussions on business sentiment.
BIS Review 14/2003  1  First, it is usually extremely difficult to differentiate the type of economic shock involved - whether the shock is permanent or transitory, or whether it is a demand or a supply shock - except maybe several years after the occurrence of the problem.