On the global side, around the turn of the year there were indications that the global economy was coming out of a soft patch of growth. The trade tensions between China and the US had abated, surveys of business conditions were picking up and industrial production was improving. Financial conditions were very stimulatory and supporting the pick-up in global growth.
On the other hand, households anticipating longer life expectancies will seek to augment their savings accordingly, which may increase capital supply. This would lower the natural rate of interest. Moreover, if the declining population reduces the labor force population, the per-capita capital equipment ratio will rise, leading to a fall in capital demand. This would also lower the natural rate of interest.