ECB model-based staff analysis suggests that, on average, the impact on inflation of a 100 basis point policy rate shock builds up gradually over time to reach its peak impact during the second year following the initial shock (Chart 4). Across models, the time interval tends to be the  shorter, the more forward-looking are agents, as the adjustment in demand becomes more frontloaded.
This corresponds to the hypothetical case of an isolated and temporary change in the policy rate, and the macroeconomic impact associated with the on-going normalisation – which includes a sequence of persistent changes in interest rates that extend into expectations for the future – is likely to be larger and more persistent than suggested by these standard model responses.