1 One key aspect of global weakness that is of particular relevance to emerging Asian economies is the sharp slowdown in global trade. This slowdown represents a notable departure from the “normal” times of the past few decades, and is the subject of my remarks today. 2 More specifically, I will discuss four topics.
First, I will review the main features of the global trade slowdown and summarize the evidence on its potential causes. Second, I will examine the special role that structural changes in China appear to be playing in the trade slowdown. Third, I will turn to the implications of this slowdown for economic growth in the region.