4  Chart 5  II.
Most FOMC participants estimate that the longer-run normal rate is currently in the range of 5.0 to 5.2 percent. Confidence intervals around statistical estimates of the natural rate are routinely estimated to be quite wide. For example, Staiger, Stock, and Watson estimate a 95 percent confidence range around the natural rate to extend nearly 1-1/2 percentage points on either side of the point estimate.