For nearly a decade, we have published the scenarios and results, and a few years ago we greatly expanded our disclosure of the modeling methodology in an additional annual publication. Looking Ahead to the 2021 Stress Test Continuing in that tradition, two weeks ago we initiated the 2021 stress test with the publication of this cycle’s stress scenarios.
As we’ve said many times, the scenarios are not projections or predictions. They are designed according to a longstanding framework that we published after incorporating feedback from the public. This year, the macroeconomic scenario envisions a severe global recession accompanied by a period of heightened stress in U.S. commercial real estate and corporate debt markets.