In July, when I accepted your invitation to speak, I chose as my title "Update on the U.S. Economy." On the basis of how the U.S. economy was performing around midsummer, I anticipated that an October presentation on the economy would be quite positive.
At that time, the first-quarter increase in real GDP had been revised up to almost 4 percent, and after a slightly softer second quarter, most estimates pointed to another increase in the 4 percent range or higher for the third quarter. The economy was generating, on average, 175,000 private nonfarm jobs per month, and the unemployment rate was down to 5 percent.