The point estimate at the time was rounding to 5 per cent. Given the uncertainties in estimation, it is probably best to talk in round numbers. So that is what we did. With the benefit of the incoming data, not only has the estimate for the current value of the NAIRU changed, but so has that for the recent past (Graph 5).
This sensitivity of the past to subsequent data is called the ‘end-point’ problem. It is a generic problem with many kinds of trend extraction procedures, and it is a reason to be cautious about over-interpreting the latest estimate. Graph 5  Interpreting the Invisible The NAIRU is estimated to have declined over the past 40 years.