The ongoing recovery in domestic and global demand is boosting optimism among businesses. This supports investment. For the first time since the start of the pandemic, our bank lending survey indicates that funding of fixed investment is an important factor driving the demand for loans to firms. We expect economic activity to return to its pre-crisis level in the first quarter of next year.
But there is still a long way to go before the damage to the economy caused by the pandemic is offset. The number of people in job retention schemes has been declining but remains high. Overall, there are still 3.3 million fewer people employed than before the pandemic, especially among the younger and lower skilled.