Economic activity is still too weak to relieve the labour market. Taking together all the data that are currently available, the economy as a whole cannot be expected to improve in the immediate future. The rate of GDP growth for 2002 will be below ½%. As things appear at present, the outlook for 2003 is, in fact, somewhat better overall.
But many forecasts point to downside risks. BIS Review 71/2002  3  There might be cause for some optimism in a return to greater stability on the stock markets and if oil prices were to settle down at their present level. That would mean that risk premia on the financial markets could go back to normal again.