For one, we know, after the fact, that most analysts misjudged the full extent to which unusual restraint on credit was exerting a drag on spending from around 1989 to 1993. Essentially, both households and firms recoiled from the explosion of debt in the 1980s.
In the subsequent 5-year period, 2008–09 to 2013–14 so far, not only that the average food inflation rose sharply to 10.3 per cent per annum, it has remained persistent. Arguably the trigger for high food inflation emanated from the drought of 2009–10. But good rains in the following years have failed to douse food inflation.