One area of uncertainty is the financial problems in Brazil and the extent of related economic weakness in Latin America more generally. If the Brazilians follow through on their fiscal adjustment program and limit the inflationary fallout from the depreciation of their currency, financial market pressures should ease, and growth in Brazil should resume next year.
Countries need clear rules to guide policy-making, and sanctions if they stray from a sustainable path. For those still hesitating whether to go that far, let me recall what happened some years ago: after a period generally acknowledged as a period of economic fair weather, governments decided to weaken the Stability and Growth Pact in 2004 and 2005.