Looking ahead, barring further increases in oil prices, last year’s volatility in energy prices will lead to significant base effects, thereby affecting the profile of annual inflation rates this year.
On the basis of the current level of oil prices and oil price futures, annual inflation rates are likely to fall in the months to come, before rising towards the end of the year to hover again at around 2%. Over the policy-relevant medium-term horizon, the outlook for price developments remains subject to upside risks.