A cyclical upturn towards the end of the year is possible; it will depend on the acceleration of world trade, the implementation of appropriate economic policies, positive developments in expectations and investment conditions, and the availability of credit. The recession is deeply undercutting potential output and threatens to erode social cohesion.
After all, who hasn’t heard of the famous phrase: “There are three kinds of Lies: Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics”, which is variously attributed to Benjamin Disraeli, Alfred Marshall, Mark Twain and many others.