But it does provide a perspective on the role of uncertainty in the setting of monetary policy. If the Fed tightens and it turns out to have been unnecessary, the result would be that utilization rates turn out lower than desired and inflation lower than would otherwise have been the case.
In the context of the prevailing 7-year low of the unemployment rate, that translates into a higher but still modest unemployment rate and further progress toward price stability, a central legislative mandate. This may not be the best solution. I would prefer, in the near term, trend growth at full employment with a continuation of the prevailing modest inflation rate.