4  Current assessment of economic development  Forecasting risk and uncertainty is currently of particular interest to central bankers, as forecast uncertainty has reached a comparatively high level. Because the scale and speed of the current economic downturn is unlike anything seen in the last few decades, forecast uncertainty can at present be incorporated into econometric analyses to a limited extent only.
Conversely, “judgement-based risk management” has become extremely important. However, despite an active exchange between modellers and macroeconomic experts, economic forecasts for 2009 and 2010 have repeatedly been revised downward since last autumn as downside risk has been realised both in the euro area and globally.