Much, however, still needs to be uncovered for the general public to appreciate the full import of these recent events. What has been evident so far, however, is that this crisis has been more financial than macroeconomic in character and effect. Let me illustrate.
While quantitative risk statements appear more precise at first glance, it should not be forgotten that, in general, it is extremely difficult to forecast risks to a forecast. It either requires correct assumptions to be made about the risks to the input variables and correct aggregation, in other words, a correct model.