At a time of low margins of idle capacity and with no prospects of a substantial structural reduction in user countries’ oil dependency, there are no grounds for supposing that the situation will change in the short or medium term. The rise in oil prices entails a transfer of purchasing power from user to producer countries.
In contrast to the constant stress experienced with respect to the external sector during the period till the early 1990s, the balance of  6  BIS Review 106/2006  payments position since then has remained comfortable.