Our confidence in the inflation path is also rising, on the basis of two indicators we have been using to assess the probability of inflation convergence. The first is our own internal estimates of the distribution of future inflation outcomes.
On the monetary policy front, US inflation has been below target. The Fed has cut interest rates three times during 2019. In contrast, the Bank of Canada has not cut rates. In part, this is because inflation and its outlook remain on target, and also because our policy rate was lower to begin with.