We will expect best efforts, especially from the High Impact insurers, but understand that there may be very good reasons for firms not being fully compliant during this period as insurers prepare for all the aspects of Solvency II. The use of statutory powers including sanctions will only be considered in extreme cases and as a last resort.
But forecasting is far from an exact science. Instead, there are conditional probabilities around each element in the forecasts and our published numbers are our central expectations: that is, what we believe is the most likely path of these variables. There are always many uncertainties, an important one right now being the economic impact of reconstruction here in Christchurch.