Restoring Japan to economic health will be a long process. Were Japan to continue its recent performance, but not be materially worse than that – which seems to be the consensus view – growth in the world economy in total should start to look up as 2002 progresses.
Measured on a year average basis, Consensus forecasters suggest that the G7 countries will record growth of about 1 per cent in 2002. This number is about the same as for 2001, but as the chart below shows, this conceals a more pronounced pick-up in the profile of growth through the year – from zero through 2001 to 2½ per cent through 2002.