If oil prices were to develop according to futures prices for the remainder of this year, the oil price increase for 2000 as a whole would amount to more than USD10, compared with the average price in 1999.
The oil price increase has caused the terms of trade of the euro area to deteriorate, and has thus also had a certain negative impact on the growth of real income for the economy as a whole. However, it can be noted that the reduced oil dependence since the first oil shock in 1973 limits the overall impact of any price rise.