First, there will be a transition to an economy in which non renewable natural resources – oil and minerals – could make a substantial contribution to export earnings and Government budget revenues. Secondly, the Ugandan economy will become progressively more integrated into the regional economy, with the implementation of the common market and customs union in the East African Community (EAC).
The third dimension of the transition will be a transition from an economy which is predominantly factor driven, based on its endowments of natural resources and unskilled labour, to one in which economic growth is driven more by improvements in factor efficiency; i.e. by growth in productivity. These three prospective economic transitions are related in important ways, which I shall elaborate on later.