The Bank’s base-case scenario nonetheless assumes that the euro-area crisis will be contained, although this assumption is clearly subject to downside risks.   In the United States, real GDP growth is expected to be weak through the first half of 2012, reflecting diminished household confidence, tighter financial conditions and increased fiscal drag.
  Growth in China and other emerging-market economies is projected to moderate to a more sustainable pace. These developments, combined with recent declines in commodity prices, are expected to dampen global inflationary pressures.   The outlook for the Canadian economy has weakened since July, with the significantly less favourable external environment affecting Canada through financial, confidence and trade channels.