6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Putting it all together, this reasoning suggests that the credit risk premium – as measured, say, by a forecasting model like that of Greenwood and Hanson – may be an operationally useful measure of financial market vulnerability.
Today, the first of those tasks is well along. We have gone eight years without a subsequent recession--one of the longest recoveries on record. Employment is now almost 7 million jobs higher than its pre-crisis peak, with all of the net gains coming from the private sector. And with unemployment at 4.5 percent, we are at or close to full employment.