*  *  *  I am pleased to join you today to discuss the outlook for the United States economy.1 About a year ago, the uncertainties surrounding a possible war in Iraq began to have a perceptible macroeconomic effect.
Those uncertainties, coupled with the lingering concerns that had been created by corporate governance scandals, were among the key factors causing the performance of the U.S. economy late last year and early this year to be lackluster. Risk spreads on corporate bonds peaked in the fall of 2002 at the highest levels observed in at least a decade.