BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  may act to shift down the neutral rate, the effects on the dynamic path of policy as it returns to the neutral are somewhat more complex. While the expected neutral funds rate is something that may be relevant, estimating and communicating a value with any confidence would be challenging.
Measuring longer-run trends is a difficult and delicate issue. Because expectations about monetary policy are important, particularly in financial markets, it may be useful for the FOMC to indicate what ranges are likely for the neutral federal funds rate. But given the uncertainties, this may be difficult and conveying a false sense of precision may prove to be counterproductive.