Let me get to that example that underscores why multiple sources of broader market intelligence are so helpful for us, particularly at times when there is a great deal of uncertainty in markets. You may remember that in the months following the commodity price collapse in 2014 the outlook for oil prices was cloudy. The futures curve out to six months was upward sloping.
One common observation is that it is inevitable that a bubble will emerge if public expectations become extremely bullish for some reason. And, borrowing the expression of Fed Chairman Greenspan, “irrational exuberance” prevails nationwide when a bubble emerges. However, intensification of bullish expectations alone is not enough for the emergence of a bubble, for it has to be financed, which is another common observation.