I am not going to be offering those sorts of predictions today. Instead, I think the way I can best contribute to your thinking about these things is to place them in the wider context of the evolving financial risk environment over the past few years.
The Bundesbank recently published a comparative study on the costs of using different payment methods in the German retail sector.1 It turns out that, at least on a transaction basis, paying in cash is less costly than paying by debit or credit card.