Notes: Rolling cross – correlation (moving window of 60 months) between HICP energy inflation at time ‘t’ and HICP excluding energy and food inflation at time ‘t+k’, where k represents the lead/lag shown on the y axis of the chart. Positive correlations are shown in blue and negative correlations in red. Latest observations: February 2023.
The easing of pandemic-related supply bottlenecks is a second relevant factor in assessing the role of a reverting component in inflation. Chart 4 shows the sustained easing in supply bottlenecks in recent months, with the improvement largely due to the easing of supply constraints.