In summation, monetary policy relies on a picture compiled on the basis of partial data, which are received with a lag, which are updated, and which change. It also relies on a global picture that is constantly changing.
That puts the upper bound of the current target range at the median of FOMC participants’ longer-run projection for the policy rate, as recorded in the June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). This long-run rate is effectively where participants think the policy rate would settle when the economy is growing at its potential and inflation is at our 2 percent target.