The remarks represent my own views,  which do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee. 2 See Brainard (2017) for a fuller discussion of this topic.
3 According to Congressional Budget Office estimates, the natural rate of unemployment was about the same in  the two periods: It was 4.8 percent in the 2014–17 period and 5.0 percent a decade earlier. 4 Stock and Watson (2007) introduced an estimate of trend inflation that assumed time-varying volatility.