This moderation in growth reflects the key assumption that forestry will finally decelerate as part of the government’s new policy to achieve sustainability in the forestry sector. Nevertheless, growth is expected to be driven by the transportation and construction sectors, related to major infrastructure projects, the onset of mineral production, wholesale retail, manufacturing and fisheries.
Over the medium term, the economy is expected to grow by an average 4.5%. This is expected to come from positive spill-over from projects such as the submarine cable, Tina Hydro, the Pacific Games and projected robust outturns in mining. However, there are potential risks on the horizon.