This penchant of economists to build models determined more by what they can rather than what they should is best illustrated by the joke that I am sure most of you heard – about a drunkard who lost his keys and was searching for them under a lamp post not because he lost the keys there but because that is where light was.
Since autumn 2011, exports and production have been under pressure from a further negative shock in the form of the flooding in Thailand, adding to the European debt problem and the effects of the appreciation of the yen.