As for the outlook, exports are expected to increase moderately (1) as overseas economies are likely to continue recovering moderately, led mainly by advanced economies – the United States in particular – although there are risks such as the outcome of European debt problem, including the situation in Greece, and (2) on the back of the enhancement of competitiveness and somewhat of a shift back from overseas production to domestic production due to the yen’s depreciation.
They are also projecting a remarkable 16% drop in their return on total capital. Monetary policymakers are a popular scapegoat for this malaise – it is their low policy rates, some say, which have caused earnings to dry up in the banking sector. But that, I feel, would be oversimplifying things.