The fact remains that things look better than they did three or four months ago, and noticeably better than we feared, at that time, they might look by now. That we are now talking about whether the pick-up extends into 2004, rather than whether it is occurring at all, is welcome progress.
1  The bigger issue has always been, and remains, the nature of the peace. This will probably cost more than the war and presumably adds to uncertainty about the medium-term economic outlook, but seems not to affect short-run perceptions in the same way as actual conflict.