Indeed, we have reached a point at which, in the judgment of the Federal Open Market Committee, the probability of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation over the next few quarters, though minor, exceeds that of a pickup in inflation. Mr. Chairman, the economic information received in recent weeks has not, in my judgment, materially altered the outlook.
The current level of the terms of trade rivals the sharp peaks that were associated with rises in wool prices following the First World War and during the Korean War. The current mining boom has seen both the volume and the price of resource exports rise strongly.