Residential building permits are currently running at an annual rate of 7,700 – a 70 percent increase over 2012 and twice the 2011 level, but well short of the increase that needs to be sustained over a long period.
The recession will be prolonged into the fourth quarter due to the ongoing slackness of private consumption and investment demand, and the substantial slowing of export growth. Although the current account is likely to continue to run a surplus during the fourth quarter, its scale will be somewhat reduced.