19  Miles (1999) obtains a decline of 50 basis points in the equilibrium real interest rate in the European Union, while internal results by Kara and von Thadden (2006) find a slightly steeper fall of around 90 basis points in the euro area. See also OECD (2005), Börsch-Supan, Ludwig and Winter (2004), Heijdra and Ligthart (2006), Canton et al. (2003), and Young (2002).
The hump-shaped macroeconomic response to post-Second World War demographic events was already anticipated by Auerbach, Kotlikoff, Hagemann and Nicoletti (1989).