That is, even if supply and demand imbalances will ultimately prove short-lived, they may lift inflation during the transition phase above the levels currently projected. This can be seen when comparing the inflation path of the December 2020 and June 2021 staff projections (left chart slide 11).
Persistent upside surprises to inflation outcomes this year imply that, despite unchanged dynamics, inflation in 2022 is currently foreseen to be almost half a percentage point higher than projected in December of last year. The HICP flash release for June, and the outcome for goods inflation in particular, suggests that future upward revisions remain possible.