Let me propose two uncertain factors in particular which have to be taken seriously into account. One is how the financially weakest European countries succeed in following their fiscal consolidation programmes. The watchword here is consistency. The situation is still very fragile, and so it is very important that governments avoid creating any uncertainty about their fiscal plans.
There is a lot at stake: disruptions in the government bond markets might spill over to the real economy and harm activity again, also in other countries. The second important challenge is how to avoid a prolonged economic stagnation in Europe.