Especially in the first quarter of 2009, we witnessed a substantial and broad-based contraction of euro area activity. Both external and domestic demand are expected to decline further in 2009 and gradually recover in 2010. As shown in Chart 4, private sector forecasters and international institutions have been revising downwards their estimates of real GDP growth for 2009 and 2010.
This assessment is broadly in line with the June 2009 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area published on 4 June, according to which annual real GDP growth will range between -5.1% and -4.1% in 2009 and between -1.0% and 0.4% in 2010, that revised downwards the ranges of projected GDP growth, particularly for 2009, compared with the March 2009 ECB staff macroeconomic projections.