In contrast, over recent years, the participation rate has declined and today it is around the same level it was in 2006. Part of this decline is cyclical, reflecting the current soft conditions in the labour market. But our analysis also suggests that around half of the decline since late 2010 is due to ageing, which is more structural in nature.
The results of this analysis can be seen in Graph 6, which shows the actual participation rate (the orange line) along with our estimates of how the participation rate would have evolved had the age structure of the population been constant over time (the blue line).