Most observers do expect some further rise in our exchange rate, mainly because the US dollar is widely expected to fall further. But a year is a long time in financial markets, and much can change over that time in investors’ attitudes to likely returns both here and in other countries.
•  There was an investment boom that led to over-capacity in the early 1980s. Investment has been quite subdued over the past two years, and, in more normal circumstances, we should be due for a pick-up.