The other hypothesis is what economists refer to as the Ricardian Equivalence hypothesis: an increase in government expenditure is absorbed by a rise in private savings and therefore no increase in consumption expenditure, which in our case, means no increase in imports and therefore no impact on the balance of trade.
Contrarily, our consumption rate  BIS Review 86/2005  3  has gone up meaning that savings rate has gone down. Trade deficit has widened. The first hypothesis seems to be more valid in the case of our economy.