2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  Developments in loans to the private sector continued to be shaped by the impact of the COVID19 pandemic on economic activity. Following strong increases in the early months of the pandemic, the annual growth rate of loans to non-financial corporations stood at 7.1 percent in September, unchanged from August.
First, the chart shows a secular, or persistent, decline in TLI and, thus, in potential output growth. Population aging is the biggest reason, and it is only partly offset by immigration.iv Second, TLP’s contribution to potential output growth has also declined somewhat from the period before the global financial crisis. TLP growth is expected to increase modestly in the coming years.