Finally, some of the econometric models used to estimate the current neutral rate, or closely related concepts, can also be used to assess whether low neutral rates are likely to persist. While estimates will depend on the model specification, several models estimate that the neutral rate will remain low for some time to come.
The ECB and the macroeconomic adjustment programmes Let me now turn to a topic that the Chair has asked me specifically to address, namely the macroeconomic adjustment programmes and the ECB’s role in their negotiation and monitoring.