Nevertheless, the energy crisis provoked not only surging energy retail prices and higher production costs for firms. It also created considerable uncertainty and made production planning for firms more difficult, especially for those with high energy consumption. These dampening factors had an effect in the second half of the year especially, while the growth effects of the lifting of COVID restrictions petered out.
For this winter, we expect economic activity in the euro area to increase marginally. According to the ECB's economic projections published last week, GDP in the euro area will grow only by 1% this year. It should be taken into account though, that the current financial market tensions imply greater uncertainty around projected figures.