Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE Index) measures the value if inflation grew at 2 percent annually. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations. - 15 Figure 2. Estimated Index of Common Inflation Expectations  Note: The horizontal dashed line is marked at 2 percent.
The common inflation expectations (CIE) index is projected onto the Survey of Professional Forecasters 10-year personal consumption expenditures inflation value. The shaded area denotes the 95 percent confidence interval. Source: Ahn and Fulton (2020, 2021); authors’ calculations. Figure 3. Survey of Professional Forecasters Estimates of the Natural Rate  Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters. - 16 Figure 4.