(%)  Expected liquidity ratio for the banking sector by stress scenario*  30  2.5  Expected capital adequacy ratio by stress scenario*  2.10  24  2.0 1.65  18 Basel II  Basel III  12 Regulatory minimum  6  1.52  1.5  1.25 Regulatory minimum  1.0  0 I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Baseline  * NBS estimation.
In particular, after spiking in the first quarter of 2018, the month-on-month changes for electricity, tobacco, and sweetened beverages are seen to be slowly tapering off as we head deeper into the third quarter of the year. This supports our analysis that the impact of the excise tax adjustments is transitory. The second point is that supply-side factors have tremendous implications for monetary policy.