BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Figure 5 Public debt as a percentage of GDP  Note: Assumptions underlying this scenario: (i) fulfilment of the Programme targets in 2013 and 2014; (ii) stabilisation of nominal expenditure from 2015 onwards; (iii) gradual decline in direct taxes throughout the horizon; (iv) increase in the structural primary balance by 0.5% of GDP per year until 2020, reaching the MTO; (v) consolidation effort exclusively on the expenditure side; (vi) increase in the implicit interest rate on public debt to 4.4% in 2020 (3.9% in 2012).
The future location of euro clearing operations is certainly another crucial aspect: in my point of view, euro clearing is of key importance for Europe, and a mere supervisory recognition of a UK central counterparty as “equivalent” is unlikely to be sufficient post-Brexit.