Presumably, more jobs will be lost in the closing months of this year. Investment fell by 15 per cent in the same period. Firms’ opinions regarding the conditions for investing, although less pessimistic in our September survey than a few months earlier, do not indicate a strong upturn.
Our own internal estimates suggests that the pass-through of commodity price changes peak at between 6 and 12 months, but continue to influence consumer price developments up to 24 months later. Looking ahead, commodity futures prices have since come down more recently, reflecting both substitution and the reopening of some supply routes. High inflation is a broad-based phenomenon.