The main focus here is on risks, that is to say not the likeliest of events but possible unfavourable developments that may arise. If you were to ask me about the current situation concerning risks for the international financial system, I would start by pointing out that for about two years macroeconomic developments have surpassed expectations.
The global economy is forging ahead on its expansionary course, with an increasingly more balanced regional growth pattern. This has improved the outlook for a gradual reduction of financial imbalances – with the US current account deficit serving as one of the crystallisation points. The USA seems as if it is enjoying a soft landing while European countries are experiencing larger growth than expected.