Oil prices, conflict in the Middle East and the impact on monetary policy Let me now turn to a risk that points to higher, rather than to lower, inflation. Oil prices have been one of the most significant influences on inflation over the past three years and they remain volatile.
However, the economy could deviate from the scenario set out in the outlook, either above it or below it, and future developments in prices may be influenced by movements in various factors, including crude oil prices, productivity, and labor costs.