These include uncertainty about the western grain crop, the re-opening of the U.S. border to live cattle exports, and auto production, as the "Big Three" automakers face softer markets for their products. Despite these caveats, aggregate demand will likely grow at a rate equal to, or marginally above, the rate of growth of production capacity over the next four quarters.
Before the advent of models, particularly value-atrisk models, bank managers could not easily compare or aggregate the risks of the various activities of a firm. The fixed-income desk would summarize its risk in terms of the portfolio’s duration, the foreign exchange desk would use its net delta by currency, and the equities desk would use portfolio standard deviation.