First, real exports turned to a decline in the January-March quarter of 2019 and experienced weak recovery in the following quarter, as seen in Chart 8. The key to the outlook is developments in the U.S.-China trade friction and the degree of recovery in the semiconductor market, and I believe that real exports are highly likely to remain sluggish for the time being.
3  Second, business fixed investment has been on an uptrend, with insufficient capacity -- as shown in Chart 9 -- continuing to exert upward pressure on investment.