When we look at why output growth over 2011 was not as strong as forecast, well over half of the difference is accounted for by unexpectedly weak growth in exports, particularly of coal. It has taken longer than was originally expected to remove water from the flooded coal mines and for firms to take advantage of increases in port and rail capacity.
As a result, despite all the talk about Australia’s resources boom, the volume of resource exports increased by only 1 per cent over 2011. A much stronger outcome than this is likely both this year and next. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  But exports are, by no means, the full story.