It is a pleasure to address you at this Annual Conference of the BER, and thank you to the BER for inviting me.
It will also be important to monitor both model-based and financial-market based estimates of expected future inflation-indexed real interest rates (for example, 5-year real rates 5 years forward) suitably adjusted for term premium and liquidity effects as one indicator of longer-run r*. Before the financial crisis, these 5-year real rates 5 years forward averaged around 2 percent after a term premium and liquidity adjustment.