In this scenario, the projected GDP growth rate for the euro area in 2021 might no longer be achievable. But even so, the activity level in the economy could hit the level foreseen in the March projections at the end of this year, provided, in particular, that vaccinations allow us to open up the economy as the year progresses.
Alongside the risk of inﬂation being weaker than projected in the baseline scenario, there are also upside risks to the inﬂation outlook. Commodity prices have picked up substantially, for example, increasing the cost of intermediate goods for industry. If businesses pass on these higher costs to their customers, this could also affect consumer prices further down the line.