History teaches us that it is often when most observers concur about the low probability of negative scenarios that these unfold. The trigger of the next downturn may well be an event that no forecaster sees as a risk right now. Nevertheless, economic downturns – beyond their immediate trigger – always have deeper underlying causes.
Let me list a few of these underlying trends which could be sources of fragility for the world‟s economy. First, considerable uncertainty remains about the long-term impacts of the large-scale monetary stimulus put in place by the major central banks since the global financial crisis as well as about the (more short-term) implications of its gradual unwinding.