Specifically, exports are expected to increase moderately due to a gradual pick-up in overseas economies, mainly in the United States, and the definite, cumulative effects of developments in foreign exchange rates since last year.
Moreover, note that core inflation does not entirely “exclude” food and energy, because changes in energy prices affect firms’ costs and so can pass into prices of non-energy items. Inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) generally sends the same broad message as does the PCE price index (chart 3).