But, especially in the aftermath of events as dramatic as we have seen, this can be a big mistake. All too often in recent months, projections about the economic recovery, about the budget and about the likely evolution of banking loan losses have been provided and received without sufficient acknowledgment of the uncertainty surrounding those forecasts.
But uncertainty is itself central, not only in our own assessments of future prospects, but in influencing Ireland’s overall creditworthiness and thereby feeding back on the recovery process itself. Doing what can be done to reduce the uncertainty facing the Irish economy is a large part of what current economic and financial policy is about at present.