This is substantially below the 5.8 percent average rate for 2018 projected in the government’s Stability Programme Update 2018 (SPU2018) that was published in April. It is also substantially below the (5.3,5.4) range for the unemployment rate during 2019-2021 in the government’s macroeconomic projections.
Just two years ago, SPU2016 projected that the average unemployment rate in 2018 would be 7.0 percent and the range for 2019-2021 would be (6.0, 6.6) percent. The improvement in the labour market is very welcome but does suggest that the economy may be more cyclically-advanced than is assumed in SPU2018. Central Bank of Ireland - UNRESTRICTED Figure 1.