It is true that in recent years the ample supply of liquidity internationally has combined with increased risk tolerance on the part of investors to support a rather stable external environment for emerging and transition economies and in particular predictable exchange rates.
While we all hope it is going to continue, we should be well aware that recent years have been a departure from longer-term trends. In addition, in some countries in the region one suspects that a process of real appreciation is taking place, a process that will have to be corrected sooner or later.