First, the limited data in hand pertaining to the second quarter do not suggest a significant bounceback in aggregate spending, which we would expect if all of the weakness in the first quarter were due to transitory factors.
Private-sector forecasts of second-quarter growth are centered around 2–1/2 percent, while the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast, which was quite accurate in its prediction of the first estimate of first-quarter GDP growth, is projecting second-quarter GDP growth of only 0.8 percent. 2 Second, it would not be the first time this recovery has proceeded in fits and starts.