The IMF (World Economic Outlook, April 2006) has highlighted that to the extent that higher net savings by oil exporters have driven down global interest rates, and that these lower rates have boosted demand in economies with market based financial systems, such as the United States, the oil price shock may also have had an additional negative effect on the US external position.
The fact remains that the rising oil prices would result in further widening of global current account imbalances as according to consensus forecast the current account balance of the US is projected to deteriorate further in 2006. Other industrialized economies are projected to run a combined surplus led mainly by Japan and Germany.