I note, however, that not only have most central banks chosen to rely most heavily on forecast-based policies but also that the results, at least in recent years, have generally been quite good, as most economies have enjoyed low inflation and overall economic stability.11 So long as this good performance persists, at least, the simple feedback approach will face a sort of Catch-22 problem: Without a demonstrated record of success, central banks will be reluctant to adopt this approach; but unless some central banks begin to rely on simple feedback policies, real-world evidence in support of this approach will be lacking.12  Flexibility and communication In previous talks I have argued that clear communication by the central bank is an important element of effective monetary policy (Bernanke, 2004).
Private consumption has increased moderately, despite being affected by COVID-19. With regard to the outlook, Japan's economy is likely to recover, with the impact of COVID-19 and supply-side constraints waning and with support from accommodative financial conditions and the government's economic measures, although it is expected to be under downward pressure stemming from high commodity prices and the slowdowns in overseas economies.