[24] Coming to the assessment of the macroeconomic impact of normalisation, ECB staff estimates, based on a suite of macroeconomic models regularly used for policy analysis at the ECB, indicate that the change in the short-to-medium term structure of interest rates and balance sheet expectations since December 2021 is expected to compress inflation by more than one percentage point in 2024.
[25] At the same time, the ECB’s Governing Council is fully aware that further ground needs to be covered in the next several meetings to exit from the prevailing highly accommodative level of policy rates. It should also be clear that any quantitative estimates are surrounded by significant uncertainty. One dimension of this uncertainty is captured by the range of estimates across models.