I should note here, to qualify, that – despite these shortcomings – ECB research using sophisticated time series techniques has been successful at extracting more conclusive results from an analysis of the statistical connection between permanent inflation trends and growth. It unambiguously shows that permanent increases in inflation do have a permanent, negative, effect on long term macroeconomic performance.
1 But, structural analysis is certainly best placed to bring more evidence to the issue. And this conference offers a representative menu of last-generation results on the extent to which the Phillips curve is tilted in the “wrong direction” – more inflation being associated with less, not more, growth – and on the welfare implication of inflation in the long run.