Global business investment, which typically has high trade content, has surprised on the downside in recent years and that has probably restrained the pace of global trade. As investment recovers, it should also spur a pick-up in global trade in the medium term. However, there are a number of structural factors that could underlie the slow global trade growth.
A first factor may be slower progress in trade liberalisation. While stalled talks at the  2  2  See Box 1.2 in October 2013 IMF’s WEO. BIS central bankers’ speeches  global level have led to increased efforts towards bilateral and regional deals, the recent impetus towards trade growth seems to have lessened.