Recent indicators point to equally dismal outcomes in the first quarter and, although there have been a few signs of stabilization, have yet to send a clear signal that the global economy has hit bottom. The intensification of financial turmoil was global, and many of our trading partners are also facing constraints on credit availability.
Although the recovery in the U.S. economy is likely to be gradual in its early stages, it should gain momentum over time. As credit markets improve, the accommodative stance of monetary policy will show through more clearly. And a rebound in confidence about the future should help spur demand.