A. Frankel, and A. K. Rose, “Determinants of Agricultural and Mineral Commodity Prices,” in Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, R. Fry, C. Jones and C. Kent (eds.) (Reserve Bank of Australia, 2009).
My answer is that the forecasts of prices based on past inflation have performed well in Japan, as the inflation rate was persistently low for a long time during the deflationary period since the second half of the 1990s.