3 Some occasions are particularly marked both by the lack of sufficient regularity in the data observed and by difficulty in properly using our theories to anticipate the non-linear consequences of economic and financial decisions. This calls for special care, better discussion of alternatives and greater consideration of the possibly severe consequences of what may be seen, ex ante, as rare events.
But modesty in our evaluation of economic projections should only be seen as a call for more transparency and better analysis, not as a refusal to use quantitative assessments based on an informed and probabilistic reading of the available evidence.