Approach 2: creating the right institutions As I argued earlier, the moneylender is particularly effective because he knows the neighbourhood and its people, and can make a good assessment of who is credit worthy. A large national bank with a local branch suffers from two infirmities.
In an adverse scenario, however, which assumes a stronger, more protracted impact of the war on energy availability and prices, as well as on world trade and uncertainty, the economy would continue to contract for a few more quarters, and GDP would fall in the average of 2023. Needless to say, the uncertainty surrounding such projections is high.