1  BIS Review 12/2000  talk today, but before I get into it, I would like to ask your indulgence to detour through the age-old subject of the business cycle. The business cycle Economists have been analysing the business cycle for a century or more.
From time to time after a long expansion, a few feel emboldened enough to suggest that perhaps we have seen the end of the business cycle. This happened in the very early-1970s, and a few people are canvassing the idea now as part of the concept known as the “new economy” or “new paradigm”.