The main disappointment, however, has been the performance of consumer spending. There is no doubt that there has been much to hold consumption back. Employment and wage growth have been modest. Persistently high and volatile oil prices have had a dampening influence.
In addition, the level of saving has remained high, reflecting ongoing concerns, not only in relation to labour markets, but also about longer-term prospects for health-care and pension systems. Nevertheless, there are a number of positive factors. Real short-term and long-term interest rates are very low, making financing conditions favourable.