As a result, the core CPI was up just 1-1/2 percent from last April. On balance, these indicators suggest that the economy will probably remain soft in the near future and that inflation will remain low. Nonetheless, I continue to believe that the pieces are in place for future robust growth.
Looking back over the past three years, I am struck by how much the U.S. economy has had to contend with. For much of the period since mid-2001, large negative wealth effects from the falling stock market, the shakeout in the high-tech sector, and the slowdown in economic activity abroad  2  BIS Review 24/2003  have combined to restrain economic activity.