5 As is the case for GDP growth and the unemployment rate, my projections for headline and core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation are also similar to the paths of the SEP median of modal projections for these variables.
If the plunge in economic activity following the Lehman shock can be described as the “acute symptoms” of the financial crisis, then the balance sheet adjustments are a “chronic illness” that will continue to affect economies. In contrast, emerging and commodity-exporting economies have recently been recovering at a more rapid pace than expected.