19 For example, since the start of 2016, the unemployment rate has fallen about 1 percentage point, and estimates of the natural rate from four well-known sources have fallen over that period between 0.3 percent and 0.7 percent (figure 9). 18 19  See, for example, Erceg and others (2018). See Powell (2018).
- 13 If the natural rate is now materially lower than we believe, that would imply less upward pressure on inflation--the flip side of the “revenge of the Phillips curve” risk. Our policy of gradual interest rate normalization represents the FOMC’s attempt to take both of these risks seriously. Removing accommodation too quickly could needlessly foreshorten the expansion.