The consensus private-sector forecast is for the growth in real GDP to slip below trend in the third quarter, then post a modest rebound in the fourth quarter, and continue in 2001 at a pace that will keep the unemployment rate nearly steady.
The consensus forecast also appears to be consistent with relatively stable core inflation, implying that the prevailing unemployment rate may be sustainable and that monetary policy may have succeeded in achieving a soft landing. I hope this will be the case. If so, monetary policy would have achieved a soft landing for the second time in the same expansion - a truly extraordinary feat.