Dealing with forecast uncertainty Despite these efforts, the history of economic forecasting tells us that our central forecast will almost certainly be wrong. But there are things we can do to manage this uncertainty. The methodology in Philip Tetlock's again.
[11]  Superforecasting is very helpful: try, fail, analyse, adjust, try  It is essential to ask, after the fact, what  did cause our forecasts to be wrong? Evaluating forecasts ex  post is as important as generating the forecasts. This can be described in three stages: Where were we wrong? For which variables were our forecast misses the largest?