), The Economics of Common Currencies, Allen and Unwin, 1973, pp. 114132. Obstfeld, M., and G. Peri, “Regional Non-Adjustment and Fiscal Policy”, Economic Policy, Vol. 26, 1998 pp. 205-260. Rose, A., “Currency Unions and Trade: The Effect Is Large”, Economic Policy, Vol. 33, 2001, pp. 449-461.
Nevertheless, the main risk we see to that outlook today is ongoing trade tensions between the United States and other countries, particularly China. Rising tariffs will slow economic growth and reduce productivity on both sides, and will raise inflation risks besides—a combination we used to call stagflation.