As for the outlook, the world economy is expected to see a moderate increase in its growth rate, with the recent improvement in soft data reflected in hard data, as positive effects of the decline in energy prices – such as an increase in real income in the energy-consuming countries – permeate gradually.
As for the U.S. economy, a substantial deceleration in growth in the January–March quarter has been observed three times in the past five years. The deceleration occurred for different reasons each time, but there seems to be a seasonal pattern of some kind.