In 2020 this risk manifested: we had a bond purchase programme to prevent severe market dysfunction; we opted to absorb the dollar flows from the IMF and other multilateral lenders into the foreign exchange reserves; we participated in the loan guarantee scheme. All these things increased SAMOS balances.
In countries like the United Kingdom, for example, where most mortgages have adjustable rates, changes in short-term interest rates (whether induced by monetary policy or some other factor) have an almost immediate effect on household cash flows. If household cash flows affect access to credit, then consumer spending may react relatively quickly.