In scenarios that are not excessively unfavourable, the fall in GDP can be kept to about 1.5 per cent; an upturn could begin towards the end of the year and its likelihood will increase the more effective are the structural interventions to improve the use of public and private resources and the clearer and more determined is the cohesion shown by the European Union.
Indeed, the idea of establishing a political entity in order to institutionalise a dialogue with the ECB with a view to influencing monetary policy in the euro area represents a fundamental attack on the euro area’s monetary policy framework, which has proved very successful over the last nine years.