around the beginning of 2022. Ultimately, the economic outlook going forward hinges on ﬁnding a sustainable, medical solution to resolve this public health crisis. Effective vaccines have been developed more swiftly than widely expected. If these are successful in helping to overcome the pandemic, the German economy will see a lasting recovery.
And what are the downside risks? Well, even if order is quickly restored to the US financial system, with the approval of the $ billion package, the consensus is that the global economy is scheduled to undergo a pronounced slowdown (some are using the R word…recession). If this occurs, the reduction could prompt a fall in international oil and energy prices.