This veritable army of technicians has been projecting increasingly higher five-year earnings growth, on average, since early 1995, according to I/B/E/S, a Wall Street research firm that compiles these estimates for the S&P 500. In January 1995, the analysts projected five-year earnings to rise on average by about 11 percent annually.
After successive upward revisions, the March 1999 estimate was set at about 13.5 percent (profit weighted), a peak for this expansion. While there are ample data to conclude that these estimates are biased upward, there is scant evidence to suggest the bias has changed.