The rise of many commodities prices – in particular oil –, the dynamism of monetary developments and the emergence of capacity constraints, implied upside risks to price stability over the medium term. This led us to issue in the summer a new message of "strong vigilance". However, since then, the ECB Governing Council, which is never pre-commited, has not changed policy rates.
What happened ? The incoming macroeconomic data remained in line with our baseline scenario and confirmed that risks to price stability are mainly on the upside over the medium term, as identified by both our economic and monetary analysis.