Although it is difficult to precisely forecast future crude oil prices, if we assume that they will rise very moderately from the current level – and there are many who predict such a rise, as prices in the futures markets suggest – the negative contribution is expected to dissipate gradually from the second half of fiscal 2015 and be around 0 percentage point in the first half of fiscal 2016.
Looking at the medians of the Policy Board members' forecasts in the April 2018 Outlook Report, the real GDP growth rate is projected to be 1.6 percent for fiscal 2018, and 0.8 percent each for fiscal 2019 and 2020. Let me explain the outlook in detail by major component. First, business fixed investment is likely to continue increasing.