However,  BIS Review 69/2002  3  because of the change in electricity pricing in Ontario, the monthly pattern of price movements will likely be different than earlier expected. In October, we had indicated that higher crude oil prices could continue to push total CPI significantly above the target range at the end of this year.
A decline in global inflation and the NBU's tight monetary policy will additionally foster disinflation. At the same time, persistently high energy prices will limit disinflation in Ukraine and require a review of utility tariffs. Taking into account the above and the consequences of the war, the NBU expects inflation will drop to 20.7% in 2023, and 9.4% in 2024.