The contribution of energy items to the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI (all items less fresh food) is estimated to be slightly more than minus 1 percentage point and is at its highest level recently. However, under the aforementioned assumption of crude oil prices, the contribution is projected to decrease gradually.
Meanwhile, since the underlying trend in inflation is likely to rise steadily, this is likely to be seen clearly in the CPI (all items less fresh food) as the contribution of energy items to the CPI lessens.