Figure 2 provides an answer showing the evolution of our projections for annual economic growth in the euro area in 2009 together with the corresponding forecasts from a range of private sector and international organisations. Observations correspond to forecasts for GDP growth in 2009 made at different points. Over the months, information is updated and the forecast horizon becomes shorter and shorter.
At the end of 2009, forecasting GDP growth in 2009 is almost tantamount to forecasting the past, so forecasts converge to the actual value indicated by a constant red line. In 2008, all projections were strongly lagging actual developments.