The system has been affected by the spillovers from the global crisis, through tighter borrowing conditions in international markets, higher spreads and so on. But these too have been manageable and various policy responses have helped the system to cope.
Making assumptions about exogenous variables is an important component of the forecasting process. But it is not always easy. Take for example the international oil price for example. It is one of the most important exogenous assumptions in our model and we have to formulate a view of the price over the coming three years.