In the case of the economic projections contained in the briefing document we call the Greenbook, the staff consults a variety of indicators and models and then judgmentally pools this information to produce the baseline outlook. The staff then supplements this analysis with various alternative scenarios intended to illustrate the primary risks to the outlook.
True, but much more needs to be done to make the arbitration process and consensus-building more effective. The stakes are not just financial. As popular discontent and reaction to globalisation continue, they challenge some of the foundational principles of the democratic, rules-based order that we have taken for granted in the West.