While the natural rate cannot be precisely measured, a range of estimates point to its decline. There are a number of contributing factors to this decline, principal among which is lower potential growth. Lower potential growth reduces the expected rate of return on capital, so reduces the rate at which firms are prepared to borrow to invest.
After the introduction of the euro banknotes and coins on 1 January 2002, these differences in service levels for national and cross-border payments within the single currency area will become even more apparent. BIS Review 116/1999  4  Against this background, the ECB strongly advocates the creation of a single payment area in order to fully reap the benefits of the single currency.