An even better growth outcome for the year might have been achieved however, had local shocks not obstructed growth in July of last year and through much of April, May and June of this year.
Simulating the effects of the less than 1 percentage point decline in real interest rates that I have mentioned by using our macroeconometric model, the results are as follows: the output gap improved by 1–3 percentage points and the yearon-year rate of increase in the CPI rose by 0.6–1.0 percentage point.