Second, at the same time, it is plausible that it will take a sustained period of improving economic and public health conditions before the confidence channel that is so important in determining the expenditure plans of households and firms is fully operative. Third, projections about the speed of the recovery also depend on the design and timing of fiscal stimulus programmes.
In particular, the outcome of negotiations about the EU recovery fund will be an important factor in determining the future path for the euro area economy. [1] I am grateful to Giacomo Carboni, Danielle Kedan and Arthur Saint Guilhem for their contributions to this speech.