Yet even so, the path ahead is likely to be bumpy and uneven and it will be some time before we are back to full employment and have inflation back to the target. As was the case in 2020, much depends upon the path of the pandemic. The development of vaccines in record time is clearly good news.
It has reduced one of the big uncertainties and could provide the foundation for a vigorous and sustainable recovery in the global economy. But this outcome is not assured – the global rollout of the vaccines faces challenges and there are a range of other uncertainties about the global economy, including trade tensions.