These are the impact of the gradual decline in house building towards sustainable levels and a moderation in consumer spending growth. In spite of the deceleration in growth and a modest rise in unemployment, the projected growth rate for next year, at about 4 per cent, remains favourable by comparison with other economies with broadly similar level of incomes.
The elevated inflation trajectory is largely as a result of multiple supply-side shocks which are expected to feed into consumer prices over the forecast horizon. These include a sharp depreciation of the exchange rate, a spike in domestic maize prices, and above-inflation electricity tariff increases.