My guess is that nearly all of the rise in house prices was in the first category, and I have been very reluctant to conclude that any was in the second category, at least until early this year.
Significantly, as if to redeem their lost credibility and reputation, all the three Rating Agencies viz., Fitch, Standard & Poor's and Moody's, have now started a new service which provide implied credit ratings backed out/derived from CDSs spreads! In view of the foregoing, there is a very strong case for kick starting a full fledged CDSs market in India.