Of course, it is not easy to tell apart structural and cyclical shocks in real time (Krugman 1998). Given the difficulties in assigning probabilities, many investors, households and policy officials will be slow to adjust fully to a structural shock (Gennaioli and Shleifer 2018).
The identification of shifts in the underlying structure of the economy is also made more challenging by the limitations of national accounting methods in a highly-globalised economy (Economic Statistics Review Group 2016, Lane 2017, Avdjiev et al 2018). At the same time, incomplete information does not justify inaction bias in policymaking.