Regardless of how a forecast was arrived at - from a formal model, judgement, some combination - it is more useful to decision-makers if its main features, and the factors driving them, can be fairly simply explained. The plausibility test of a view is most effectively applied when the story is kept as straightforward as possible (though not more so).
A forecast is even more useful if the forecaster can identify key assumptions, be they about exogenous variables or the structure of the economy, and what the consequences would probably be were those assumptions to be astray.