The hump-shaped macroeconomic response to post-Second World War demographic events was already anticipated by Auerbach, Kotlikoff, Hagemann and Nicoletti (1989).
6  BIS Review 107/2007  demographic structure on the equilibrium real rate in the capital markets is something that is expected to occur with a considerable lag, some economists have suggested that expectations of such developments may have already started to exert some influence on the pricing of bonds.