Let me mention one number: 2.01%, the average inflation rate in the euro area since 1999 until today, over a period of almost 13 years during which oil prices have soared. This number has become so deeply embedded in our society that people have almost forgotten it.
Continued vigilance is therefore of the essence with regard to those risks. I shall now explain our assessment in more detail. Turning first to the economic analysis, recent data on economic activity, as well as survey information, suggest ongoing moderate growth in the fourth quarter of 2004 and a broadly unchanged situation around the new year.