: MIT Press). Moreover, with the share of long-term unemployed in total unemployment unusually elevated in recent years, there is an ongoing discussion about whether short- and long-term unemployment have differential effects on inflation. See Robert J. Gordon (2013), “The Phillips Curve Is Alive and Well: Inflation and the NAIRU during the Slow Recovery,” NBER Working Paper Series 19390 (Cambridge, Mass.
Conversely, if global growth data surprise on the downside, emerging markets could suffer from a ‘flight to safety’ and renewed appreciation of the US dollar.