We also need to keep in mind that part of the oil price increases is due to strong global demand, which was not the case in the first and second oil shocks. But it remains true that the oil price increase constitutes an adverse supply shock for the euro area economy as a whole.
For the oil price shock to be absorbed smoothly, the policy mistakes of the past must not be repeated. In particular, “second-round” effects must be avoided. With regard to consumer prices, oil market developments have had a direct impact on the euro area HICP.