After we have mapped out the scenario field, the second phase is about identifying and analysing key factors. In this phase, an interdisciplinary team of researchers experienced in future research and strategic foresight identifies key factors that have a strong influence on future developments. Key factors can be parameters, trends, developments or events.
Computer-assisted literature research makes it possible to identify even weak signals for future key factors that are not yet so important. The key factors play a central role in the further course of the scenario process. During the key factor analysis, researchers explore what range of outcomes these key factors could produce. This leads to an expansion of the scenario funnel.