If oil prices have now at least peaked - and, better yet, if they decline at least modestly over the next year and a half, as suggested by expectations reflected in futures markets - the upward impetus to overall inflation from oil prices will dissipate or even reverse.
In this case, overall inflation is likely to decline next year, and this decrease could help moderate the rise in core inflation into the following year. Third, long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored, reflecting considerable confidence that monetary policy will contain any threat of higher inflation. This should damp the rise in inflation in the short term.