Source: Wolters Kluwer, Blue Chip Financial Forecasts; Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Primary Dealers and Survey of Market Participants; Federal Reserve Board staff estimates. Figure 7. Historical Evolution of r*: Estimates from Selected Time-Series Models  Note: The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Federal Reserve Board staff estimates of the r* models in figure 8 below. Figure 8. Uncertainty Bands around Recent Point Estimates of r* (Selected Models)  Note: The circle gives the r* estimate for the first quarter of 2019 from each model, while the bars indicate the 95 percent confidence interval for the estimate.