This increase in long-term rates appears to have reflected a mix of a pronounced rise in the expected path of the policy interest rate and some increase in the term premium.13 A rise of more than 200 basis points in a year is at the upper end of what is implied by the mean paths and uncertainty measures shown in charts 4 and 5, but these measures still admit a substantial probability of higher – and lower – paths.
8 See for example Brynjolfson, E., Rock, D., Syverson, C., (2018), ‘Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity  Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics’, chapter 1 in The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, NBER, Gordon, R.J. (2018), ‘Declining American Economic Growth despite Ongoing Innovation’, Explorations in Economic History, vol. 69, pp. 1-12, Mokyr, J.