We have been recently blessed with relatively strong cyclical growth, the lowest unemployment rate in 24 years, the lowest BIS Review 85/1997  -2inflation in 31 years, an impressive investment boom, soaring equity prices and a 5-year decline in the federal budget deficit that may take the deficit to below ½% of GDP in fiscal 1997.
But this conference is about the next chapter in this story. And the key in the near term may be crosscurrents that appear likely to both moderate output growth and keep inflation relatively well contained. In the case of output growth, the crosscurrents are the continued strength in demand and the expected slowing in inventory investment.