At its meeting earlier in the week, the Reserve Bank Board considered a range of possible scenarios for the Australian economy over the next couple of years. Our central scenario is that the economy will return to strong growth in 2022, with GDP increasing by a little over 4 per cent, to be followed by growth of around 2½ per cent in 2023.
In this scenario, the unemployment rate resumes its downward path to reach around 4¼ per cent by the end of next year and 4 per cent the following year. The Board also considered upside and downside scenarios, the details of which will be published later today, with much depending on the health outcomes.