However, I recognize that attention should be paid to the possibility that employment and business fixed investment will be hampered by a further worsening in business confidence, thereby leading to an economic slowdown. As for a future risk to the U.S. economy, in addition to a delayed economic recovery in Europe and China, I would point to the “fiscal cliff” problem.
While a cut in fiscal spending and expiration of a tax reduction are downside factors for economic activity, the range and size of the factors are highly uncertain at present, and are factored into the U.S. economic outlook differently by private research institutions.