Another factor will be a gradual deceleration of growth in the global economy and trade, including due to protectionist measures. Private consumption will remain a key driver of growth as real household income – wages, pensions, and remittances from abroad – continues to grow. Although investment activity will slow down, it will remain an important driver of demand for investment imports.
As a result, even given a revival in export-oriented industrial production and record grain exports, imports will grow faster than exports in real terms. Consequently, the contribution of net exports will remain negative, although smaller than before. Next year, real economy growth will start to accelerate , hitting 2.9% in 2020 and 3.7% in 2021.