This growth forecast assumes an easing of the electricity supply constraint by 2017. Hopefully there is not too much downside risk to this assumption! In conclusion, given the inherent difficulties with forecasting, the best we can do is to ensure that we continue to develop our suite of models, and keep up with the latest international advances and trends.
Although we can continually increase the sophistication of our models, a model will never be a perfect representation of the economy, and the assumptions will always be subject to change. And given the risks to the forecasts, policy decisions will inevitably require a degree of subjective judgement.