The depth of the recession could be magnified by new turbulence in the markets, by the heightening of the protectionist tendencies that have emerged in the last two years, and by the spread of firm bankruptcies across economies sufficient to trigger systemic crises in the financial sector.
The international economy and the euro-area economy In the scenario analysed by the International Monetary Fund in early April, which assumes an abatement of the pandemic in the second half of the year, the easing of the containment measures and the implementation of large-scale public interventions to support the economy, world trade declines by 11 per cent in 2020.