By way of example, a macroeconomic scenario in which external demand evolved as was expected at the start of the Programme, GDP variation would be marginally positive already in 2013, the fiscal deficit would be below 5 per cent in 2013, public debt would be stabilising and employment would be around 1.5 p.p. above that observed over the last three years (Chart 1).
An adjustment with headwinds is always more onerous and can undermine the credibility of the fiscal consolidation process when the goals are set in terms of GDP ratio. The variables in the ratio suffer the adverse effect of factors that cannot be controlled by fiscal policy-makers, and may create the perception that the adjust failed.