Specifically, in the latest Outlook Report, the year-on-year rates of change in the CPI (less fresh food) are projected to be 0.9 percent for fiscal 2018, and excluding the effects of the scheduled consumption tax hike, 1.4 percent and 1.5 percent for fiscal 2019 and 2020, respectively (Chart 11).
As is the case with economic activity, there are various uncertainties regarding the pace of inflation going forward. Maintaining a positive output gap -- a driver for a rise in inflation -- for as long as possible, which will firmly push up actual prices as well as inflation expectations, is likely to be the most certain path toward achieving 2 percent inflation. III.