Upward revisions of growth forecasts for fiscal 2015 and 2016 By contrast, the Bank’s forecast on economic growth for fiscal 2015 was adjusted upward significantly from 1.5 percent in the April 2013 forecast point to 2.1 percent in the most recent forecast. The upward revision is natural since it reflects the adjustment process of returning from the bigger-than-expected decline in the previous year.
In addition, as for reasons why degree of upward revision was particularly large in the latest January 2015 forecast, I personally view that the following four factors were incorporated: (1) improvement in corporate profits and the resultant greater active business fixed investment (owing to a crude oil price drop and the lagged impact of the yen’s further depreciation since November 2014); (2) gradual recovery overseas (owing to a crude oil price drop) and the resultant positive effects on exports from Japan; (3) an increase in real income and resultant expansion of private consumption (driven by a crude oil price drop and the postponement of the second round of the consumption tax hike); and (4) expected positive effects from the government’s economic measures based on the supplementary budget for fiscal 2014.