We are confronted with tensions in financial markets, a difficult fiscal situation in some parts of the euro area and an associated adverse impact on the effective functioning of monetary policy. The current tensions are the most recent repercussions of the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008, which culminated by the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.
The forecast of the professional forecasters can be considered rational as they apparently process all available information including the central bank’s likely reaction function to arrive at their medium- to long-term inflation forecasts.