While a disorderly unwinding of global imbalances remains a low probability event, concerted efforts by key stakeholders are required to avoid such an occurrence. While the US growth is expected to slow, stronger fiscal performance should improve the resilience of the economy.
We expect, and indications from businesses are that they do as well, that resource sector investment will rise further – as we experience the largest minerals and energy boom since the late 19th century. Even with continued caution by households, that probably means that overall growth, which has been at about trend over the past year, will increase in 2011 to something above trend.