Finally, it is useful to consult measures of underlying trend inflation. 15 A variety of estimates using time-series models suggest that underlying trend inflation may have moved down by as much as 1/2 percentage point over the past decade. 16 It is difficult to anticipate how long it will take to achieve the conditions set out in the forward guidance.
The September Summary of Economic Projections shows that most participants do not currently anticipate that the policy rate will depart from its lower bound by the end of 2023. When it does lift off, the policy rate could be expected to change only gradually, reflecting the commitment to remain accommodative until inflation has moderately exceeded 2 percent for some time.