Exports were very strong, but much of that came from a sharp rebound in shipments of crude oil and transportation equipment. Imports were surprisingly weak, and companies are still carrying high levels of inventories. Business investment contracted sharply after a strong first quarter, likely reflecting, in part, the impact of the escalating trade war.
What can be said with some certainty is that in the “new normal” financial markets will function more smoothly than today and economic growth will in general be on a sustainable path, reflecting the growth potential of the respective economy. But a number of elements will have changed due to experiences made during the crisis and the policy responses which followed.