7 The recent revision to GDP growth – of 0.2 percentage points in the September quarter of 2015 – was relatively minor, though the data now suggest that GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2015 to be more in line with the strength that was apparent in a range of indicators of the labour market and business conditions at that time.
Starting points A critical element of forecasting is to have a sense of where the economy is now and in which direction it’s currently heading. This comes from carefully dissecting the incoming economic data in an attempt to disentangle signals from noise and determine the extent to which shocks will be long-lived or transitory.