So we should not apply this standard of proof for a rate change – it imparts too much inertia. At the same time, we obviously want to avoid the other problem, of excessive activism. We do not want a system that sees rates moving around in response to short-term trends which portend no significant change in the medium-term outlook.
I will return to some of these issues in discussing:  •  some of the characteristics of the current expansion,  •  the prospects for continued expansion and the key economic risks we face, and  •  2.  the role that monetary policy can play going forward.