Growth scenarios prepared by ECB staff suggest that, this year, GDP could fall by between 5 percent in a mild scenario and 12 percent in a severe scenario. As the containment measures are gradually lifted, these scenarios foresee a recovery in economic activity.
Obviously, the extent of the contraction and the recovery will depend crucially on how long the containment measures are in place, the extent to which supply capacity and domestic demand are permanently affected, and the success of policies to mitigate the economic impact for businesses and workers.