BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Graph 1  Updating the chart two years later, that assumption was shown to be somewhat pessimistic. The terms of trade peaked in September 2011, about 12 per cent higher than we had previously forecast and 12 months later (Graph 2).
The chart was by now sporting a decadelong average, to emphasise not just the level of the terms of trade but the persistence of the episode – even though we were not assuming it was “permanent”. Graph 2  The terms of trade had, however, finally started to decline. It has been a standard assumption since then that they would fall further.