A glance at charts of output or employment confirms that the economy had already pretty much hit bottom by the time of the bailout. At most it could be discussed whether the terms of the bailout and indeed wider euro area policies at the time might have delayed the recovery relative to some other set of policies.
The same charts also show that the Irish downturn – led by an exceptional construction crunch – was well under way by the time of the notorious bank guarantee (which was granted just a couple of weeks after the Lehman bankruptcy) (Figures 4–7 show the time-line on relevant macro indicators).