Specifically, the median of the Policy Board members’ forecasts, the year-on-year rate of change, was minus 0.4 percent for fiscal 2010 and plus 0.1 percent for fiscal 2011. We need to be attentive to the fact that those forecasts are associated with both upside and downside risks.
With regard to economic activity, there are some upside risks such as an even faster growth in emerging and commodity-exporting economies. As downside risks, international financial developments warrant attention. In particular, attention should be paid to the effects of developments in fiscal and financial conditions in some European economies on international finance and the global economy.