Other indicators, such as surveys of households and businesses, tend to be more consistent with what many feel. For instance, the most recent Small Business Problems & Priorities survey of the U.S. National Federation of Independent Business finds that “uncertainty over economic conditions” ranked second in their list of most “critical” problems. “Uncertainty over government actions” was fourth.
Another index of economic policy uncertainty for the United States, constructed by researchers at Stanford, has shown a clear upward trend in recent years. 4 They estimate that the rise in policy uncertainty between 2006 and 2011 reduced the level of real U.S. GDP by approximately 3 per cent and was associated with a loss of about 2.3 million jobs.