10 This should not be confused with the short-term or contemporaneous concept of neutral, which is the interest  rate that would be required to equate an economy’s output with its potential at a given point in time. 11 While we expect retirees to transition from saving to dissaving, our research finds this is only a partial offset.
R.  R. Mendes, “The Neutral Rate of Interest in Canada,” Bank of Canada Staff Discussion Paper No. 2014–5 (September 2014). 12 The Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM). The simulation results are based on the same distribution of  shocks as observed over the 1995Q1–2015Q2 sample.