This scenario does not envisage a vaccine being widely available to most Australians until late next year at the earliest. It also assumes that significant restrictions on international travel are still in place at the end of 2021. Recent medical breakthroughs give us some hope that things will work out better than this.
If so, confidence would lift and there would be a further easing of restrictions. The result would be an upside surprise to growth and jobs, especially given the significant policy stimulus that is already in place, the generally strong balance sheets and the substantial government incentives for businesses to employ people and invest.