8  Lowe P (2010), “Forecasting in an Uncertain World”, Address to the Australian Business Economists Annual Forecasting Conference, Sydney, 8 December, describes the inputs into the forecast process in greater detail. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Uncertainties For several years we have presented confidence intervals for GDP growth and inflation forecasts in the Statement (Graph 2).
9 These summarise the extent of uncertainty based on previous forecast errors. Since February of last year, we have also published an unemployment rate forecast and confidence intervals around that. In addition to confidence intervals, the forecasting process leads us to think about the risks associated with specific economic developments and to quantify those where possible.