Therefore, the absence of a program with the IMF remains the main risk to this forecast. Another important risk to the outlined macroeconomic forecast could arise from a longerlasting novel coronavirus pandemic and, consequently, longer-lasting quarantine measures being required to overcome the outbreak. This will have a direct influence on how quickly the global and Ukrainian economies recover. Other risks also remain significant.
They include: an escalation of the military conflict in eastern Ukraine a drop in the harvest of grain, fruit and vegetable crops in Ukraine in the wake of unfavorable weather the higher volatility of global food prices, driven by global climate change and the risk of stronger protectionist measures. Why did the NBU decide to cut the key policy rate by 2 pp?