5  The Congressional Budget Office estimates that current federal fiscal policies will have little effect on economic growth this year, but that earlier fiscal policy actions reduced the rate of real GDP growth roughly 11/2 percentage points in 2013 and about 1/4 percentage point in 2014 relative to what it would have been otherwise.
See Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025 (Washington: CBO, January), p. 32. 6  A recent survey of this research is presented by Nicholas Bloom (2014), “Fluctuations in Uncertainty,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 28 (Spring), pp. 153–76. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  A second factor that could restrain economic growth regards housing.