Like all forecasts, the profile for mining investment is subject to considerable uncertainty. We cannot be sure about when the peak will occur, nor can we be sure about the pace at which mining investment will decline as a share of GDP.
This will depend not just on the outcome of decisions regarding uncommitted projects, but also the rate of progress on existing projects and the extent and nature of any further cost overruns. Notwithstanding this uncertainty, there is still a large amount of work in the pipeline, and so mining investment is likely to remain quite elevated for a time.