Many have taken note of the weakness in our monthly survey, since it has proven to be a useful gauge for national trends in manufacturing. In August and September, the measures of current activity were negative. But our polling in August coincided with market volatility in the aftermath of Standard & Poor’s downgrade of U.S. debt.
Measures of future activity have remained positive, and September was stronger than August, suggesting that firms expect activity to pick up over the next six months. Recent volatility in financial markets has contributed to sharp declines in business and consumer sentiment.