The impact of such a scenario on an individual institution can be determined by looking at historical data, but it is not reasonable to assume that the world is not changing; we must also prepare for risks which have never occurred. To help us economic forecasts and analysis play a role – but our judgement and imagination are also indispensable tools.
To develop such a comprehensive stress-testing programme is not a trivial task. It will require an investment of time and resources. But there are high dividends to be reaped: institutions with such a programme will surely be better placed to survive the next crisis. 5. Conclusion  Let me conclude.