For example, it has been estimated that an attempt by the Greek government to reduce its budget deficit over the next three years by the 10 percentage points of GDP needed to bring that deficit into line with the Maastricht criteria could cause GDP to decline over the next few years by between a cumulative 15 and 20 percent.
The process of fiscal consolidation will place most of the burden of adjustment on monetary policies. In effect, we are likely to have low interest rates globally for much longer than previously thought. These low interest rates will counteract the negative growth impact of the fiscal consolidation.