Recovery scenario: The economy follows a sustainable growth path with a nominal growth rate of 2% from fiscal 2019, and the market interest rate gradually rises to 1.6%. Stagnation scenario: The nominal growth rate remains lackluster at around 1%, and the market interest rate rises only to 0.8%. Note: 1.
Contributions of population growth effect, population aging effect, and number of branches effect are put together as "structural factors." 2. As for population growth and population aging, forecasts by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research are used. It is assumed that the nonperforming loan ratio and number of branches in business areas are constant throughout the forecast period.