Looking ahead, on the basis of current futures prices for oil, annual rates of headline inflation are likely to temporarily decline towards the turn of the year, mainly reflecting base effects in energy prices. At the same time, measures of underlying inflation have ticked up moderately in recent months, but have yet to show convincing signs of a sustained upward trend.
2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  The main conclusion from that discussion was that, in future, it was likely that the average level of the cash rate would be lower than it was before the financial crisis. This reflects slower trend growth in the economy and a shift in the balance between savings and investment.