So if unforeseen events intrude, they should correctly be allowed to delay the return to normality, or if the events were severe enough, they could in extremis overturn the direction of movement. Although the latter possibility has to be recognised, we think it is very unlikely.
More globally, as symbolized by the recent case of Iceland, the financial sector had been growing in recent years but is now shrinking. Various adjustments to reduce the excesses are likely to continue for the time being, and during this period downward pressures will continue to weigh on economic activity.