3  Commodity markets International oil prices are forecast to maintain their upward trend in line with the continued recovery of the world economy and the increase in global liquidity.   Next year demand for crude is likely to surpass supply albeit only by a small margin, led by the emerging market countries (+500,000bpd).
–    3  The fact that the OECD countries’ oil inventories are now at their highest level since 2005 will act as a factor limiting the scale of upward movement in the oil price. Global liquidity, which has expanded greatly in line with QE2, could put upward pressure on oil prices if it feeds through into commodity markets.