At the cyclical level, the recent revision in global growth projections and the downside shift in the risk distribution require a careful assessment of the likely duration of adverse shocks and the potential offsetting impact of some mitigating stabilising factors: this exercise will be aided by the arrival of the incoming hard data on macroeconomic outcomes in the first months of 2019.
These components account for the drop in long-term bond yields that we have seen since the crisis. This is relevant to our topic because these components have also been heavily influenced by central banks as they worked to meet their inflation goals in the aftermath of the crisis. Let me make four points here.