A disruption of this magnitude would have another undesirable effect: knocking Australia’s terms of trade, and exposing rising imbalances in that country. New Zealand would lose the advantage of the China/Australia growth locomotive that has helped drive our own export demand over the last twelve months.
In such a situation, some of the shock would likely be offset by a lower New Zealand dollar, though this would have to be balanced against higher imported inflation. 4. The commodity boom intensifies  One possibility for 2011 is that the commodity boom could intensify, surprising us with stronger export prices for primary exporters, continuing the theme in 2010.