If the NAIRU turns out to be closer to 5%, then the task is more demanding, and growth will have to slow to below trend for a while, and inflation is likely to rise somewhat further until the rebalancing is complete.
If successful, in either scenario, the payoff from monetary restraint will be both to contain the risk of higher inflation and to extend the life of this remarkable expansion. BIS Review 48/2000  6  Several considerations provide some optimism that the outcome will be a benign one - a soft as opposed to a hard landing.