(This is of course, itself, a qualitatively probabilistic statement about an uncertain event!) A critical issue is: how important is all of this? The answer is that it depends on the circumstances. In the good times, not being able to quantify the risk of the unknowable downside, or take into account the uncertainties, is not that important while ever the good times last.
As always, the views I will be expressing are my own and are not necessarily shared by other members of the Board of Governors or of the Federal Open Market Committee. Review of 2001 A confluence of factors shaped economic developments last year, and I would first like to review these factors, to provide a backdrop for assessing our economic prospects in 2002.