This makes each data release a source of volatility, with good news in the payrolls data generally being interpreted that it will bring forward the expected commencement date of the normalisation process. Perhaps of greater importance than the “lift off” itself is the question of the future path of interest rates.
On top of all, a Grexit scenario could also have negative contagion effects on weak euro area countries, by introducing a permanent convertibility risk premium into sovereign bond yields and financial asset prices. Last but not least, Grexit might entail very substantial geopolitical risks.