ECI Growth Equation The estimated equation for the employment cost index (ECI) is: 𝑒𝑒 𝑤𝑤 𝑤𝑤 𝑤𝑤 𝑤𝑤 𝜋𝜋𝑡𝑡𝑤𝑤 = −0.72 + .58𝜋𝜋𝑡𝑡−1 + .10𝜋𝜋𝑡𝑡−1 + .12𝜋𝜋𝑡𝑡−2 + .10𝜋𝜋𝑡𝑡−3 + .11𝜋𝜋𝑡𝑡−4 − .19𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑡𝑡 −  .57∆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑡𝑡 + .58𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀_𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 + 𝜀𝜀𝑡𝑡 ,  where 𝜋𝜋𝑡𝑡𝑤𝑤 is the annualized log difference of the ECI for hourly compensation of private  industry workers, 𝜋𝜋𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑒 and 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑡𝑡 have the same definition as the corresponding variables from the PCE price inflation model, ∆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑡𝑡 denotes the first difference of 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑡𝑡 ,  𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀_𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 is a moving average of an estimate of trend productivity growth for the  business sector, and 𝜀𝜀𝑡𝑡 is an error term.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  I’d like to conclude by saying that we will consider your comments carefully as the agencies coordinate to discuss and consider the appropriate action that is likely to best serve our financial system and the interests of depository institutions and consumers.