According to the European Central Bank (ECB) staff projections published in September, consumer prices in the euro area will grow by over 8 per cent on average in 2022 before gradually decreasing to below 6 per cent in 2023 and converging to levels close to the 2 per cent inflation objective in the second half of 2024.
A similar picture emerges from the expectations implied by inflation-linked swap prices and from the surveys conducted in October, such as the ECB's survey of monetary analysts and polls by other private entities. Conversely, households' expectations as captured in the ECB's survey are slightly higher, at 5 per cent over the next twelve months and at 3 per cent at the three-year ahead horizon.