FOMC projections and current market expectations  In short, the Fed probably will not alter its gradual monetary normalisation plans until there is more clarity about the profile of US fiscal policy. ECB It is true that the critical indicator for the ECB remains core inflation.
Indeed, core inflation has been incredibly persistent in the euro area, stuck below 1%, while inflation forecasts until 2019 remain under the target with downside risks, as I said earlier. Hence, at least for the first half of the year, the ECB’s stance remains accommodative as more evidence that inflation is self-sustaining is needed.