First, although FCIXs make it possible to detect signs of impending financial crises, they do not enable one to identify the source, type, or size of the crisis. Second, FCIXs do not make obvious the optimal policy measures that should be undertaken. With the help of FCIXs, policymakers must monitor financial institutions carefully and devise policy measures appropriate for the economic and financial conditions.
15  FCIXs are not immune to real-time estimation problems, such as the end-of-sample and lagged-datapublication problems, which may cause serious delay in warning signals. As a solution, Kamada and Nasu propose to predict the Juglar cycle’s turning point, where the growth rate falls to zero, by an inflection point, where acceleration falls to zero in real time data.