In recent days, a number of analysts have also downgraded their quarterly growth forecasts for this year in the light of global developments  BIS Review 97/2010  3  and the weaker PMI. Nevertheless we still expect growth to average around three per cent in 2010.
The manufacturing sector has led the recovery since the second half of last year, mainly a result of an export recovery. The outlook therefore depends on the global prospects. Unfortunately the most recent data shows that manufacturing may be slowing down, and the PMI is down at 48.4, the fourth consecutive monthly decline, indicating a possible contraction going forward.