When exports gain momentum and the negative confidence effects on investment and consumption peter out, the upturn from the second half of 2003 onwards will be somewhat stronger and more broadly based. However, given the high degree of uncertainty and unused capacity, we expect no improvement in investment activity in the near future.
We believe that investment activity will not take a turn for the better until the second half of next year. Experience of investment behaviour in the past may be a further indication that the pick-up of investment in machinery and equipment will be modest.