In fact, some have voiced concerns that the economy has proven unable to sustain its expansion when the unemployment rate has fallen below these levels. With that in mind, it is worth asking whether we should be worried that history will inevitably repeat itself. The truth is, we cannot know for sure.
Although rising inflation often heralded the death knell of economic expansions in earlier decades, inflation expectations have been well anchored and rising inflation has presented less of a risk in the most recent business cycles.2 From 1998 to 1/7  BIS central bankers' speeches  2001, for instance, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation never exceeded 2 percent on a four-quarter basis.