The figure shows the change in the probability of inflation falling within various intervals in the next 5 years. The probability of zero or negative inflation is shown in the lower section (dark area) of the figure. 11  Figure 3: Global value chains and inflation  For the construction of the data on global value chains, see Borin and Mancini (2015).
Core inflation is calculated net of energy and fresh food products and refers to the average for OECD countries. Source: OECD. Figure 4: Simulation of the trend in the debt-to-GDP ratio  Baseline scenario: potential growth (g) of 1.5%; average real interest rate on the public debt (r) converging to 2.5% in about 20 years; primary surplus (D) increasing to 3.0% (in 2020).