Finally, while models play an important role in the forecasting process, the value of models should not be overstated, particularly because no one model that we have captures all of the relevant features of an economy or consistently “beats” other forecasts. 4 Central forecasts Central forecasts attract a great deal of attention and commentary from financial market participants, the press and the general public.
This assessment is also broadly reflected in the March 2014 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual real GDP increasing by 1.2% in 2014, 1.5% in 2015 and 1.8% in 2016. Compared with the December 2013 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the projection for real GDP growth for 2014 has been revised slightly upwards.