In an influential paper, Robert Barsky and Lutz Kilian (2001) analyze the oil price shocks of the 1970s in this spirit. Barsky and Kilian provide evidence that the extraordinary increases in nominal oil prices during the 1970s were made feasible primarily by earlier expansionary monetary policies rather than by truly exogenous political or economic events.
We are currently thinking hard about these questions, because it makes sense to do so as a precaution – it’s best to put the roof on when the sun is shining. Our current view is that we are unlikely to need ‘unconventional’ monetary policy tools. But we would be remiss not to be prepared.