When assessing such policy recommendations, it must, however, be borne in mind that they are based not least on the extrapolation of differences in rates of productivity growth observed in the past. But historic figures for a specific range of countries cannot readily be applied to the future, since the pattern of catching-up and advanced countries may have changed significantly in the interim.
For instance, Finland and Ireland have meanwhile reached a level of per capita income which is above the 6 EMU average. Today, only Greece, Portugal and Spain can be identified as definite candidates for catching-up. In the year 2000, their per capita income was still 33%, 25% and 18% below the EMU average, respectively.