I quote them nevertheless, because it is still somewhat amusing to think that if one picks up the Corriere published on the day Ciampi was born, one finds references to the three lodestars (if I may call them that) that guided his personal, professional and institutional life, from the outset of his career to the highest offices he held: the stability of the currency, balanced public finances, the ideal of a united Europe.
In the past year the FOMC has raised rates faster than it has in forty years, so we should be skeptical about whether statistical models based on historical experience will be reliable in estimating lags for such an unusual event. To support this line of reasoning, let me use some examples to illustrate the concept that big shocks travel fast.