As we noted in the last MPC statement, much of the import momentum in the fourth quarter, however, can be ascribed to the 140 per cent increase in the volume of oil imports compared to the third quarter.
It is important to highlight that the related inventory buildup appears to be exceptional and it is unlikely that oil imports will be sustained at these levels. In fact, had there been the normal import volumes of oil during the final quarter of last year, the deficit-to-GDP ratio for that quarter would have been comfortably less than 6 per cent of GDP.