Notes: For each horizon, the chart shows the median of estimates of the lower quantile (10th percentile) forecast across the suite of “GDP-at-risk” models maintained by ECB staff, as well as the interquartile range to account for model uncertainty. These estimates are predicated mainly on developments in financial conditions, credit, risk, and the macroeconomy.
Forecasts are conditional on financial data up to mid-October 2022 and real economy indicators up to the end of September 2022. These forces pushing on the downside might be reduced if supply bottlenecks continue to ease (Chart 5) and energy commodity and electricity prices continue to fall from their highs (Chart 6).