The first is the outlook for growth, since this helps us assess whether inflation will continue to rise. The second is underlying inflation. This assesses whether inflation will stabilise around the ECB’s target of 2% once the effects of volatile factors, such as oil and food price swings fade away.
To give you an example, the difference between the highest and the lowest annual national HICP inflation rate increased to 3.8 percentage points in July 2000, from an average of less than 2 percentage points recorded during 1998 and 1999. The biggest differentials have emerged in product groups such as food and energy.