Although the labor force and labor-market institutions determine employment in the long run, short-run cyclical influences, such as transitory changes in spending or productivity, may cause employment to deviate from its long-run sustainable level. Even in the short run, however, there is no discernable link between aggregate employment and changes in trade volumes or the trade balance.
For example, over the past two decades, even as U.S. trade has expanded rapidly, the quarter-to-quarter volatility of both output and employment has decreased noticeably, and recessions have become less frequent and milder than in earlier decades (Bernanke, 2004).