and Schorfheide, F. (2015), “Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2015, Vol. 7(1): 168–196. Eisner, R. (1997), “A New View of the NAIRU”, in: Improving the Global Economy: Keynesian and the Growth in Output and Employment, edited by P. Davidson and Jan A. Kregel; Cheltenham, UK; Lyme, NH, US: E. Elgar. Ferroni, F. and Mojon, B.
The rate of increase is projected to accelerate from around the second half of fiscal 2015 and reach about 2 percent around the first half of fiscal 2016 (Chart 2-2). The output gap is projected to expand within positive territory. It is also likely that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will follow an increasing trend and gradually converge to around 2 percent.