We know that climatic factors, especially drought, can be big enough to make a difference to the timing and magnitude of exports. However, tracking these through changes in milk production, dairy product storage, slaughter numbers, onshore and offshore inventory, can be surprisingly complex and lead to big statistical discrepancies at times (for example, the surprisingly low growth figures late last year).
Looking back, some economic historians now believe that New Zealand's difficult reaction to the East Asian Crisis in the late-1990s was partly due to a drought shock. Now that droughts are also associated with electricity price hikes, the climatic effect on the economy can be magnified further. Shocks can also be benign.