But when we look back on the early analysis, which identified the basic problem as an exchange rate over-valuation of 10-15 per cent which could be corrected by floating the exchange rate, events since then should have demonstrated the inadequacy of this view.
I have argued elsewhere (Grenville 1997) that, if there is an identifiable principal problem, it is more deep-seated and lies in the fragility of the financial sector. It has many of the characteristics of an old-fashioned bank liquidity crisis, with failing confidence at the heart of the problem.