While more balanced than earlier this year, risks remain from vaccine hesitancy, deadlier variants, and a resurgence of cases in some foreign countries. The latest jobs report is a reminder that the path of reopening and recovery—like the shutdown—is likely to be uneven and difficult to predict, so basing monetary policy on outcomes rather than the outlook will serve us well.
With the renewal of fiscal support, real disposable personal income surged 61 percent on an annualized basis in the first quarter after a decline of 10 percent in the fourth quarter.