Indeed, the uncertainty of budget forecasts is no better illustrated than by an admittedly extreme case. During the last two and a half years the projection of the fiscal balance, excluding new initiatives, for the year 2002 has changed by about $ billion.
While all this fortunately has been in the direction of smaller deficits, the degree of uncertainty suggests that the error could just as easily be on the other side. With this high level of uncertainty in projecting budget totals and associated deficits, the Congress needs to evaluate the consequences to long-term economic growth of errors in fiscal policy.