In 2006, this largely reflects the expected statistical effect of a planned health care reform in one euro area country, the Netherlands, which is estimated to imply a one-off reduction of 0.2 percentage point in the euro area inflation rate for 2006. This effect should be excluded from the assessment of the medium-term outlook for price stability.
Taking into account the assumptions underlying the projections, upside risks to the inflation projections prevail. These risks relate notably to future oil price developments, indirect taxes and administered prices. Furthermore, ongoing vigilance is required in order to ensure that past price increases do not  BIS Review 42/2005  1  lead to second-round effects in wage and price-setting throughout the economy.