However, in a given model, uncertainty about future shocks and assumptions concerning exogenous variables often turn out to be greater contributors to aggregate uncertainty than uncertainty about parameters and data. Although the sources of forecast uncertainty are known, forecast uncertainty is of course itself uncertain, and must therefore be estimated.
*  *  *  Introduction The presentation examines some critical areas in the development of sustainable effective regulatory systems, in the light of the G20, Group of Thirty on Financial reform and the recent IMF Report on Global Financial Stability.