Taken together, we see further confirmation of our main scenario of a gradual improvement in economic activity this year, and a broadening and strengthening in the course of 2004. This assessment has received support from recently published forecasts of official and private sources, as well as from developments in financial markets.
Externally, the expansion of global economic trade and real GDP growth should counteract the changes in the effective exchange rate of the euro, which is back to its level of early 1999. Domestically, the conditions for investment should improve further, given the continued adjustment efforts of firms to enhance productivity and profitability, the low level of interest rates and generally favourable financing conditions.