If so, downward pressure on PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation, which was already running somewhat below our 2 percent objective when the downturn began in March, will continue.
The dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity for the analysis that follows are from the Economic Cycle Research Institute. For the United States, these match the dates determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). For other nations, the institute’s methodology yields dates that are comparable to the NBER dates for the United States, which facilitates comparisons across countries.