Under this scenario, assuming capital expenditure remains stationary at the level forecast for 2010 and that the average cost of the debt and the ratio of revenue to output stay at the values forecast for 2013, in the five-year period 2014-18 primary current spending should remain virtually stationary in real terms.
One would therefore expect a jump in caseload purely to allow for catch-up due to the lack of a “normal” level of insolvencies in 2020 and 2021. However, added to that, there are over 8,000 Irish SME loans with forborne term loans at the Irish banks, and 25,000 businesses that were reliant on wage subsidies early this year.