But retarding effects on resurgent activity in Germany would be something to be concerned about only if there were to be a dramatic slump in the Chinese economy. According to our estimates, a 4%-points drop in growth in China would lower German gross domestic product by roughly a quarter percentage. Such a slump is not be expected at present, however.
All things considered, the neighbouring Asian countries – owing to their geographical proximity and strong economic links – are likely to feel the negative effects more severely than the western industrial nations. We are seeing a clear correction in the industrial sector, in which excess capacity is being reduced. This is also confirmed by German exporters and producers on site.