The underlying trend in inflation has been increasing as its two determinants, namely, the output gap and medium- to long-term inflation expectations, are improving.
However, in terms of the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI excluding fresh food stripping out the direct effects of the consumption tax hike, inflation has slowed since last summer due mainly to the substantial decline in crude oil prices and registered 0.2 percent in January (Chart 8).