Although the US market will no longer provide the same strong stimulus for our exports, we are now beginning to see stronger economic activity in Europe and Japan that should partly offset a slowing in US demand. As for domestic spending in Canada, the recent momentum is likely to continue. With respect to inflation, the total consumer price index has risen recently.
Global business investment, which typically has high trade content, has surprised on the downside in recent years and that has probably restrained the pace of global trade. As investment recovers, it should also spur a pick-up in global trade in the medium term. However, there are a number of structural factors that could underlie the slow global trade growth.