Expressing the outlook in terms of the median of the Policy Board members’ forecasts of the real GDP growth rate, this was 2.0 percent for fiscal 2015 and 1.5 percent for fiscal 2016 (Chart 6).
Subsequently, through fiscal 2017, the economy is projected to maintain its positive growth, although with a slowing in its pace to around a level somewhat below the potential growth rate. The slowdown is due mainly to (1) the effects of a front-loaded increase and subsequent decline in demand prior to and after the consumption tax hike planned in April 2017 and (2) cyclical deceleration.