* * * It has been one year since the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic hit our shores—a year marked by heartbreak and hardship. We are all looking forward to a brighter time ahead, when vaccinations are widespread, the recovery is broad based and inclusive, and services, schools, sports, and social life are in person.
The expected path of the U.S. economy has strengthened with the prospect of widespread vaccinations and additional fiscal stimulus, but risks remain, and we are currently far from our goals.1  Current Situation After a dark winter with elevated case counts and setbacks on service-sector jobs, case counts have come down and spending is picking up.