As soon as all the information for calendar 2002 has become available, the Bank will comment on the inflationary path going forward. The Bank’s projection further indicates that CPIX-inflation will decline to below the 6 per cent upper limit of the target range by the second half of 2003.
As with all projections, there are nevertheless serious risks that some of the assumptions on which they are based may not be realised. The major risk to this forecast is the current tension surrounding Iraq and the effect that this could have on oil prices.