Many possible surprises could materially affect the future path of the U.S. economy, such as shocks to the price of oil, the foreign economic outlook, the rate of productivity growth, the sentiment of households and businesses, financial stability, and fiscal policy, to name a few. The resulting uncertainty makes it difficult to predict the future path of activity, unemployment, and inflation.
The process will be lengthy and complex, requiring a suitable legal framework, adequate infrastructures, a large institutional investor base, stable macroeconomic conditions and predictable policy-making, as has been demonstrated by the extensive analysis conducted and the guidelines then issued by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the World Bank and the G20.8 Several of these conditions have already been achieved in the process of integration in the EU.