The net result is that a 70 per cent nominal increase in non-OPEC capital expenditure since 2003 has barely replaced declining production from existing fields. 6 Over the medium term, high prices will encourage the development of new supplies and energy alternatives. Canada will be one of the most important marginal suppliers of oil.
With more than $ billion of new investment in the oil sands proposed or under way, 7 output from the oil sands is expected to grow by 3 million barrels per day by 2020, representing about 15 per cent of expected marginal global demand. 8 Other supplies can be expected to come on stream, and alternative energy sources should be developed.