In addition, the euro area crisis has promoted capital inflows to “safe haven” countries, such as Japan, the United States, and core European countries, and it has amplified the “flight-tosafety premium” or “scarcity premium” charged on yields on their long-term sovereign bonds. There are various measures for estimating these premiums.
One simple approach is to estimate the difference between the observed long-term interest rate (e.g., the yield on 10-year sovereign bonds) and expected nominal GDP growth (or the sum of expected real economic growth and expected long-term inflation).