But core inflation often gives a more accurate indicator of where overall inflation is headed. Twelve-month core PCE Throughout this discussion, PCE data for October are estimates based on the October consumer price index and producer price index data. 1  -2inflation stands at 5.0 percent in our October estimate, approximately where it stood last December when policy tightening was in its early stages.
Over 2022, core inflation rose a few tenths above 5 percent and fell a few tenths below, but it mainly moved sideways. So when will inflation come down? I could answer this question by pointing to the inflation forecasts of private-sector forecasters or of FOMC participants, which broadly show a significant decline over the next year.