[46] As shown in the chart, the structural indicators explain only a small fraction of the changes in NAIRU, whereas the macro-economic indicators appear to explain the bulk of its variation. Another paper, reaching the same conclusion and using a broader set of variables is Heimberger et al.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  9  Overall, this evidence suggests that the shifts in unemployment rates observed since 2007 were mostly triggered by the macro-economic cycle and not by an increase of structural unemployment as allegedly indicated by very high NAIRU levels. This means that the estimated NAIRU from Phillips curves is not a good representation of structural unemployment.