In addition, since developments in employment tend to lag behind economic activity, if the U.S. economy decelerates faster than expected, the unemployment rate could rise by more than expected, following in the wake of such an economic slowdown. In terms of uncertainties surrounding the U.S. economy, I would like to add the risk that financial conditions will also lead to an economic downturn.
The United States has experienced many cases where financial stress exacerbated a recession, such as after the savings and loan (S&L) crisis intensified in the late 1980s and after the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. That said, even if financial stress arises, it is not easy to accurately predict its impact on the real economy.