In part, this expectation reflects the significant improvement in labor market conditions over the past few years. As shown in figure 2, the unemployment rate (the blue line) now stands at 4.4 percent, somewhat below the median of FOMC participants’ estimates of its longer-run sustainable level (the black line). As the green stars indicate, labor market conditions are expected to strengthen a bit further.
For example, the total amount of trade by the NIEs, the 4 four major countries of ASEAN, and China increased 2.3 times from 1991 to 2002.