As such, core measures of inflation remain essentially at 2 per cent, consistent with the economy operating at close to capacity. However, higher crude oil prices, on average, relative to our April forecast are expected to lead to a higher headline inflation rate in the near term.
Starting with the labor market, through August, payroll job gains averaged 170,000 per month this year, down only a little from the average pace of gains in 2016 and still well above estimates of the pace necessary to absorb new entrants to the labor force.