Actually, a complex set of conditions, causes and trigger factors made the crisis possible: –  1  First, basic conditions: disequilibria evolving over the last years:   Global imbalances inducing financial flows from emerging to advanced economies;    Increasing weight of the financial industry in the economy; in U.S.A. the share doubled since 1980 to reach about 8% of GDP in 20081;    Global interest rates – arguably at least for some time too low;    Related trend to household indebtedness, partly fueled by policies expanding homeownership to the poor2;  Bank for International Settlements.
For instance, if China is excluded from the calculations, the remaining EMDEs are expected to contract much more severely this year, and the subsequent rebound would be insufficient to recover the lost ground. The case of Latin America is illustrative in this regard, with a GDP fall of 8.1 percent anticipated for 2020 and a modest 3.6 percent expansion in 2021.