In general, while the repercussions of rising energy prices on inflation were considered as temporary before the outbreak 3 4 5  See for example El-Erian (2022) and Wheeler and Wilkinson (2022). For a critical review of quantitative models, forecast errors and their evaluation at the time of the global financial crisis, see Visco (2009).
Between mid-February and mid-May 2022, due to the Russian aggression in Ukraine, the price of wheat (and of other agricultural commodities) increased by over 60 per cent.