These considerations are emblematic of the difficulties in predicting macroeconomic variables, particularly when driven by non-economic phenomena, like mounting geopolitical tensions. We will have to take this into account if and when, symmetrically, a tendency to make forecast errors of the opposite sign emerges due to the attenuation of these tensions, hopefully in a short time but unfortunately still very uncertain today.
These unfavourable growth/debt dynamics could result in a change in global investor sentiment towards South Africa,  3 See, International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, October 2020; Bank of Canada, Monetary Policy  Report, October 2020; and Bank of England, Monetary Policy Report, November 2020.