It is more likely, in our judgement, than any other single outcome, but the likelihood of that particular outcome is in fact not that high at all.1 We have tried to convey this sense of imprecision by publishing “fan charts” and by putting ranges in tables for forecast variables over horizons longer than a couple of quarters.
The point of this is to try to get people to focus less on the central number and more on the set of issues that accompany the forecasts. It seems that we have not been very successful on that score.