The quite modest growth of wages across the economy does not seem normal given the solid growth numbers we’ve seen in recent quarters. Inflation and wages ought to be telling indicators that the gaps are closing. Their weakness is a concern. A noisy first half The first half of 2015 will present challenges in evaluating the validity of economic assumptions. I’ve mentioned oil prices.
After seven months of decline, prices firmed in trading sessions last week, then fell again. Financial market participants interpreted the firming as a positive  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  development. A number of oil and gas sector analysts forecast that global petroleum supplies will exceed demand through the first half of the year.