Overall, the two-pillar approach has proven to be successful in the first just over two years of Stage Three, which were characterised by an above-average degree of uncertainty. The ECB's strategy is certainly rather complex, but - at the same time - it has the crucial advantage of guaranteeing that no piece of relevant information is left out in the policy analysis.
Regarding actual price developments, we have to admit that, after very moderate inflation in 1999, HICP inflation has been standing above 2% since June 2000. However, this is due mainly to direct effects stemming from the external oil price shock. Such a shock cannot be prevented by monetary policy.