At the July Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM), the Bank conducted an interim assessment of the April 2014 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report) through fiscal 2016. Looking at the median of the Policy Board members’ forecasts, real GDP is projected to grow at 1.0 percent in fiscal 2014, 1.5 percent in fiscal 2015, and 1.3 percent in fiscal 2016 (Chart 5).
Regarding the outlook for economic activity, a potential concern is developments in exports. As I just mentioned, Japan’s exports have shown some weakness. The recent weakness in exports is essentially due to cyclical factors, mainly the sluggishness in emerging economies.