Although oil prices have fallen over the last few weeks, markets expect them to remain high for some time to come. If this were to occur, inflation rates would most likely remain above 2% for longer than was expected this year and, possibly, in the first half of next year.
Looking beyond the short term, however, the main scenario for medium-term inflation remains consistent with price stability. This scenario is based on the assumption that wages will continue to develop moderately at a time when unemployment is still high. However, there are some upside risks to this scenario.