That said, other economic data have improved more modestly, and the bulk of the evidence, including help-wanted advertising and surveys of employers’ hiring plans, suggests that the job market is not poised for marked improvement in the months ahead. Indeed, my own expectation is that while the trend in unemployment will be gradually lower, the path to get there might be choppy.
On a brighter note, consumer spending looked a bit stronger in the latter part of last year after an anemic first half (chart 4).