The one indicator of uncertainty that appears elevated, and has been so since the UK referendum is political uncertainty. 2 This measure counts how frequently newspaper articles cite “uncertainty”, “economy” or similar, and particular policy words, such as “deficit” or “regulation”. A number of recent events have sparked this rise in political uncertainty.
Since the US elections, the outlook for that country’s fiscal policy and trade policy has been uncertain. In the run-up to the elections in several European countries, the headlines are reflecting political uncertainty about the future attitude of Member States towards European integration.