(For more information on the term premium, see Don H. Kim and Jonathan H. Wright (2005), “An Arbitrage-Free Three-Factor Term Structure Model and the Recent Behavior of LongTerm Yields and Distant-Horizon Forward Rates (PDF),” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005–33 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August). 7  The 10-year real rate hit negative 0.72 percent on April 26, 2013.
Of course, if the economy obediently followed our forecasts, the job of central bankers would be a lot easier and their speeches would be a lot shorter. Alas, the economy is often not so compliant, so I will ask your indulgence for a few more minutes.