I am going to focus on how we should see macroeconomic policy and its role in our economic growth problem. There is a principle in economics, known as Dornbusch’s Rule, that a crisis takes longer to happen than you expect, but then occurs faster than you can believe.
It is the macroeconomic version of the old rule about how you go bankrupt: slowly, then quickly. The point is that you get a lot of bad data before the system breaks. Experts will warn about a crisis, and after a while, these warnings will become part of the background noise. But when the crisis comes, its timing will still surprise everyone.