Assuming that the structural shifts I have just described account for a loss in potential output growth of around 1 percent, a back of the envelope calculation suggests that these account for a decline in real equilibrium yields of a similar magnitude. Looking ahead, it is difficult to predict whether these structural trends will be reversed.
In particular, there is a wide range of views about the potential economic impact of digitalisation, automation and artificial intelligence, which depends on the success rate in converting new technologies into economicallysuccessful business applications. In turn, aggregate investment dynamics will be heavily influenced by this discovery process. Another open question relates to climate change and the carbon transition.