We know that there were some unusual trade-related reasons for the low GDP number in the first quarter that are unlikely to be repeated, and revisions in both GDP and GDI could largely erase that contraction in output. And, the data that point to some slowing don’t convince me that it will damage the labor market.
Measures of manufacturing activity and indicators of future activity, such as the purchasing manager’s index, have moderated but are still in expansionary territory. Rather than a recession, the softening data seem consistent with the pandemicThe GDPNow forecast is available on the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s website at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.