The backdrop painted above shows that, taken separately, there are convincing arguments for both loosening as well as for tightening monetary policy. On the one hand, the GDP statistics provide a case for monetary support, especially since inflation is so low. Lowering interest rates could potentially help to stimulate credit growth, notably for businesses, and aid in a recovery.
At the same time, the external setting shows that the rise in foreign interest rates has not been matched by a similar move in domestic rates, so that the domestic vs foreign interest differential has narrowed over the past year. A further lowering of local rates could exacerbate the situation, especially given the clear and present prospects of rate rises in the US.