The European Commission’s Winter 2023 Economic Forecast projects inflation at 2.5% in 2024. 6. When inflation changes rapidly, either upwards or downwards, the year-on-year inflation rates that are typically used in the public debate (i.e. the change in prices compared with one year ago) may not be very informative about the current change in the prices of goods and services.
This reflects the fact that yearon-year inflation rates may give too much weight to data that are too far in the past. In such a situation, it is useful to get an indication about turning points by also looking at more recent inflation developments, including changes in prices over a period of three months or six months based on seasonally adjusted data.