In that spirit, I am the first to admit that we do not fully understand the boom and subsequent bust that has occurred worldwide in the high-tech sector--especially in the telecommunications area. There apparently was overinvestment in the late 1990s, but we do not yet know the exact magnitude.
I am aware that of the thousands who try, some are quite successful. So are winners of coin-tossing contests. The seeming ability of a number of banking organizations to make consistent profits from foreign exchange trading likely derives not from their insight into future rate changes but from market making.