Overall, this assessment is broadly reflected in the staff projections which foresee an annual real GDP growth of 1.4% in 2015, 1.7% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017. Again compared with the projections in June, the outlook for real GDP growth has been revised downwards. This is due primarily to lower external demand owing to weaker growth in the emerging markets.
The risks to this outlook are tilted to the downside, reflecting in particular the increased uncertainties related to the external environment. Notably, current developments in emerging market economies have the potential to further affect global growth adversely via trade and confidence effects. Before addressing the second part of my remarks, let me revert to the evolution of the output gap, i.e.