I tend to place greater weight on the core measure of inflation, which abstracts from the transitory movements in energy prices and is a better predictor of future inflation. In the April report, the core measure—that is, excluding food and energy prices—had increased only 1.5 percent on a 12-month change basis. That reading marks a considerable shortfall from the Committee’s 2 percent objective.
And there does not seem to have been any progress over the past year or so: Core PCE inflation is about the same over the past 12 months as over the preceding period.