Together with the central scenario in the forecast, the Research Department also presents the uncertainty that exists in the forecast. This is illustrated by a fan chart, which shows 66 percent of the distribution of possible outcomes. The uncertainty in the forecast is derived from uncertainty in the exogenous variables inserted into the model, chiefly in relation to the global environment.
Shall we infer from this view that only domestic policy and institutional failures are to be blamed for the current state of affairs in Europe? The answer is clearly negative.