At the same time, there are still risks relating to a disorderly adjustment of the past accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances, especially outside the euro area. In addition, geopolitical tensions continue to weigh adversely on confidence.
Indeed, the increase in oil prices over the past few weeks – besides being influenced by temporary supply constraints – reflects the risk of more acute tensions in oil markets in the future, which, in turn, would have a negative impact on the prospects for economic activity worldwide.