Assuming a considerable reduction of geopolitical tensions and a recovery of external demand, as well as the planned implementation of investment projects, notably in road, railway, energy and utility infrastructure, economic growth is expected to pick up as of 2024, first to around 3.5%, and then to return to its prepandemic growth path of around 4% per annum in the medium term.
Chart 16 GDP growth projection  Chart 17 Contributions to real GDP growth, expenditure side  (y-o-y rates, in %)  (in pp)  16  10  14  7.5  8  12  6  4.5 4.3  10  2.0  8  3.5  3.3  2.9  4  2.5 2.5  2.1  1.8  2  6  0  4 2  -2  0  -4  -2  -6  -4  -0.7  -1.6  -8 III  IV I 2020  Source: NBS.