Given the uncertainties about a sustainable configuration of unemployment, output growth and inflation, we lacked a precise roadmap of where we needed to go. While we didn't know precisely what trend growth was, we knew for certain that growth had been persistently above trend – given the continuing decline in the unemployment rate from 1996 though mid-1999.
Since 2020, the yield on 10-year government bonds has fluctuated within a narrow range between 2.4 percent and 3.4 percent. The difference between the highest and lowest points is less than 100 basis points, which is significantly smaller than the nearly 400 basis points in the United States during the same period.