The U.S. economy has changed in many ways over the past 50 years.
By some estimates, the natural rate of unemployment is substantially lower now.4 For example, the Congressional Budget Office now estimates that the natural rate was about 5-3/4 percent (and rising) in the late 1960s, compared with 4-3/4 percent at present.5 Rising education levels do point to a decline in the natural rate since the 1960s, because more highly educated people are less likely to be unemployed.