Beyond the short term, indirect effects of past oil price rises on other components of the price index may gradually materialise, and already announced changes to administered prices and indirect taxes can be expected to have an upward impact. Meanwhile, wage increases have remained moderate over recent quarters.
All in all, the information available remains consistent with the scenario for price developments as reflected in the December staff projections. Risks to this scenario remain on the upside and include further rises in oil prices, additional increases in administered prices and indirect taxes, as well as – more fundamentally – potential second-round effects in wage and price-setting behaviour.