Graph 5  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  We are starting to see the effect of this demographic transition in the monthly employment data. For many years, the participation rate – that is, the share of the adult population in the labour force – had been steadily rising.
In contrast, over recent years, the participation rate has declined and today it is around the same level it was in 2006. Part of this decline is cyclical, reflecting the current soft conditions in the labour market. But our analysis also suggests that around half of the decline since late 2010 is due to ageing, which is more structural in nature.