The Amazon effect appears to be smaller than the impact of the rise of big box stores about 20 years ago—the so-called “Walmart effect”—and even that was not large enough to force a rethink of the inflation process for policy purposes. The Wage Phillips Curve So, if we cannot prove statistically that globalization and digitalization are restraining inflation, what else could be going on?
This drag will largely offset the effects of rising investment. This is why we expect that the growth rate of potential output will remain fairly stable at around 2 per cent over the next three years. •  Real GDP growth is projected to increase from 1.6 per cent this year to 2.3 per cent next year and 2.6 per cent in 2015.