If the nation’s working-age population is redefined to include the population up to 69 years of age, the number of employable population would increase by slightly less than 8 million. The working-age population up to 64 years of age is 82 million at present and is expected to decline.
If that is correct, then the current level of the unemployment rate relative to estimates of the natural rate, may, if anything, understate the availability of labor resources. In addition, I do not believe that the relationship of the Federal Reserve’s measure of capacity utilization to available slack in the manufacturing sector has changed materially of late.