*  *  *  It is a pleasure and an honor for me to take part in this celebration of the fiftieth anniversary of the Paris Club – both as a former official of the IMF, who learned so much from the former Chairman of the Paris Club with whom I had the pleasure of working for over five years, and as Governor of the Bank of Israel.
This would mean we would be faced with a recession, i.e. a significant and longerlasting decline in economic activity spread across the economy. The scale of this decline would depend on many uncertain factors. For instance: households' gas saving behaviour, winter temperatures and policy measures. One thing is for sure: gas shortages would amplify downward forces.