However, despite this moderation ‒ primarily driven by a decline in fuel prices from the peaks observed in mid-2022 ‒ inflation remains well above the SARB’s preferred midpoint of the 3‒ 6% target range. Inflation edged slightly higher in February and March 2023, after recording 6.9% in January, underpinned by rising food and core inflation.
Nonetheless, we expect a return to the 4.5% midpoint – though only by the third quarter of 2025. In South Africa, food inflation has continued to surprise to the upside, despite the decelerating trend observed in global agricultural commodities. Domestic meat inflation remains elevated, reflective of lingering domestic supply constraints in the beef market after the outbreak of foot and mouth disease last year.