We have seen subdued business investment in most sectors for the past two years, but were hopeful that the combination of the signing of CUSMA and the government’s Accelerated Investment Incentive would lead to a pickup in investment. While the overall effect remains to be seen, doubts about the ratification of CUSMA remain a downside risk to our investment outlook.
Related to this, exports have started 2019 on a very weak note. Although the data are a bit puzzling, perhaps affected by severe weather, we have taken them at face value in updating our forecast, leaving room for further growth in future months. For both investment and exports, then, we have reason to expect more growth in the second half of 2019.