Indeed, the increase in long-term inflation expectations observed after the conclusion of the ECB strategy review in July 2021 seems more to reflect a re-anchoring to the 2 per cent inflation target than an upward de-anchoring.21 On the other hand, in many surveys the distributions of expected inflation have shown an increasing skewness towards high consumer price changes and a rise in uncertainty, suggesting a greater, albeit still currently moderate, risk of an upward shift in the entire distribution (fig.
6).22 Similar evidence emerges from the analysis of inflation options, which currently suggest that, in the next 5 years, the probability of inflation remaining on average (slightly) above target tends to be higher than the opposite.