As I noted earlier, in a soft landing, growth slows from an above-trend to trend rate just as output converges from below to its full employment level. But I believe output is already beyond the full employment level.
The Bank of Japan publishes a half-yearly report entitled “Outlook and Risk Assessment of the Economy and Prices”, and the most recent April issue gives the outlook for this fiscal year. As a standard scenario for Japan’ economy for the rest of this fiscal year, the report assumes a recovery led by exports and production, an outlook I still fully endorse.