Some monthly indicators, which extend into or cover the third quarter of this year, point to some moderation of these high growth rates. In particular, the pace of growth in industrial production appears to have declined somewhat and some survey data showed signs of moderation. At the same time, however, confidence remains high, underpinned by positive factors such as high employment growth.
The extended period of high and rising oil prices has certainly increased the uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of recent growth trends in the world economy. However, by contrast with previous periods of strong and prolonged increases in oil prices, the world economy is now less dependent on oil and inflationary pressures are still being contained.