Up to now, this has been relatively easy to understand, but this is not the end of the forecasting process. A key consideration to bear in mind is that point forecasts do not allow the proper quantification and communication of two very important aspects of a forecast, namely uncertainty and risk. Uncertainty and risk are two different things.
BIS Review 12/1998  -6Several important lessons can be drawn from this experience with regard to ensuring the stability of international financial markets. Obviously, preventing an overheating of economic and financial activities through proper macroeconomic policies is the most important prerequisite for securing the stability of one’s own economy as well as the international financial markets.