Most importantly for Canada, there is good underlying momentum in the US economy, even if the composition of US growth is somewhat less favourable for Canada than it was in April. We are seeing relatively strong labour market conditions in the United States, consumers are confident, and the rate of new firm creation is back near pre-recession levels.
All of this suggests that the weak start to 2016 was largely temporary. The US economy remains a key driver for global growth, which we forecast will strengthen gradually to 3 1/2 per cent by 2018. However, the results of the referendum in the United Kingdom have clouded the global outlook.