These factors have contributed to the upside risk to the oil price. How should monetary policy react to this? The impact of a change in the international oil price is direct and relatively quick, given that domestic petrol prices are adjusted each month in terms of the formula of the Department of Minerals and Energy.
Petrol has a weight of about 5 per cent in CPIX, so a 10 per cent increase in the petrol price would increase CPIX inflation by approximately 0,5 percentage points. This is the impact effect or what we call the first-round effect, and clearly there is nothing we can do about this.