Slide 10 focuses on the Beveridge curve (the relationship produced by the direct effect of changes in vacancies on unemployment) when the separations rate is low, as it is now. 7 The March 2022 observation lies at the top of the curve and is labeled point A.
If there is cooling in aggregate demand spurred by monetary policy tightening that tempers labor demand, then vacancies should fall substantially. Suppose they decrease  7  Specifically, I set the separations rate equal to 1.23 percent, a little above current levels.