Recent data suggest some downside risks to the 2016 economic growth forecast, such as a continued decline in business and consumer confidence as well as the contraction in mining output during both October and November. And while the Barclays Purchasing Managers’ Index increased to just above 50 in January 2017, it had been in negative territory for five consecutive months.
Looking ahead, the most recent growth forecasts of the South African Reserve Bank suggest growth of 1,1 per cent in 2017 and 1,6 per cent in 2018. However, it should be noted that the recent monthly data for the fourth quarter suggest that there may be a downside risk to these forecasts.