If the measures had not been introduced in 2015, our models suggest that both the level of house prices and the proportion of highly indebted mortgage borrowers would likely have been significantly higher in 2019 than we currently see, all else being equal.
Our analysis suggests that – in the absence of the mortgage measures – affordability pressures for mortgage borrowers would be even more acute. Since the measures were introduced, there have been several years where house prices have grown faster than incomes due to supply constraints.