One major back door for getting around the rules was the fact that a majority vote among all member states was required at key points in the excessive deficit procedure in order for it to progress. Otmar Issing described this scenario rather colourfully as “sinners sitting in judgement over fellow sinners”, and it does indeed encourage strategic voting.
My baseline outlook is close to these projections, but I must also acknowledge that the economic outlook is unusually uncertain, and, moreover, that the ultimate course the economy follows will depend on the course of the virus, social-distancing norms, and mitigation efforts put in place to contain it.