The answer is no surprise: emerging markets are likely to become even weightier in the world economy tomorrow than they are today. Of course, any projection, even in the short term, is surrounded by uncertainty. Projections at very distant horizons are, therefore, somewhat speculative. Yet, they might capture possible secular developments.
A number of studies found startling results regarding the growth prospects of emerging markets. According to one such study, Brazil, Russia, India and China could account for over half the size of today’s six largest economies by 2025 and, in less than 40 years, they could be larger. 9 Other studies convey similar messages, notwithstanding some differences.