It was commonly recognized at that time that Chinese banks, especially the big four, could hardly withstand a big economic downturn if not seriously reformed. The banking system was then vulnerable to shocks, especially external shocks, which would trigger confidence crisis or even systemic meltdown.
This context for investment, and global economic prospects more generally, is obviously heavily influenced by developments in the two biggest economies in the world. The trade war that the United States and China are waging is damaging not only their own prospects, but also those of the rest of the world.3 Now, we had been expecting the global economy to slow last year.