The expected path of the U.S. economy has strengthened with the prospect of widespread vaccinations and additional fiscal stimulus, but risks remain, and we are currently far from our goals.1  Current Situation After a dark winter with elevated case counts and setbacks on service-sector jobs, case counts have come down and spending is picking up.
Economic forecasts for growth during the first quarter have been significantly upgraded in response to the better-than-expected data.2 January data for household spending overall came in strong—confirming that the renewal of fiscal support at the end of the year provided a much needed boost to household incomes and spending at the turn of the year.