This means that world trade, too, will finally gain more impetus, with growth accelerating from 2.4% last year to 4.2% this year. That is good news for German exporters. The debates on trade restrictions, which are being conducted in some countries, are causing headaches for export-oriented enterprises, however. Protectionist tendencies, alongside geopolitical conflicts, are among the most significant downside risks to global economic activity.
The level of the public debt of a country influences the state of health of its banks through two main channels. On the one hand, the budgetary position is seen as the ultimate guarantor of the solvency of a bank: if it fails the state budget is seen as the guarantor of last resort.