As about one-third of these exports are destined for the US, the strength of the recovery will depend substantially on the continued propensity of American firms and households to spend. The situation in the emerging markets is quite mixed. In the rest of East Asia the picture looks fairly bright.
Partly due to rising intra-Asian trade and strong domestic consumption, several economies in East Asia were able to achieve impressive growth rates during the first half year of 2002. Similarly, the transition countries have been performing quite well on the whole.