1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  Indeed, the selling price expectations (3 months forward) of both the industrial and retail sectors have started to rise amid these temporary price pressures. Moreover, the short-term inflation expectations derived from the market information (i.e. inflation swaps) has increased to 1.8 – 1.9%. However, the counterevidence speaking for the transitory interpretation is quite convincing.
When looking at the longer-term expectations, there is no upward trend: The probability distributions of market inflation expectations have strongly concentrated between the levels of 1.5 – 2.5% and the probability of inflation higher than 2.5% is very small.