Job vacancies remain at a very high level, although some firms report that it has been less difficult to find workers recently than it was a few months back. The central forecast is that the unemployment rate gradually increases from here due to slower growth to reach 4½ per cent by mid-2025.
This rate of unemployment is below that prevailing in the years prior to the pandemic. If we can achieve an outcome that is something like this, the country will have managed a sustained reduction in unemployment. This would be something that we could all welcome. I would like to highlight a few of the many sources of uncertainty around these central forecasts.