The pull exerted by the exceptionally negative estimate for the fourth quarter of 2008 had a considerable effect in this respect. In reality, Italian National Statistical Institute’s figures for the quarter were even more negative, reflecting the underestimation in the model of the performance of world demand.
Simply taking “mechanical” account of this and maintaining the gradual but constant exit from the crisis implicit in January’s projections, we move from a 2 to a 2.6 per cent contraction in GDP for this year.