A stronger focus on financial conglomerates is just as conceivable as a concentration towards core operations with marginal areas being spun off. Both trends can be observed, though the contours of the resulting structures are not yet clearly visible. This will naturally affect the future of universal banks.
Empirical evidence on bank capital shocks affecting the level of economic output is provided in Macroeconomic Assessment Group (2010), Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of the Transition to Stronger Capital and Liquidity Requirements, final report (Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements, December), available at www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2011 /201128/201128abs.html.