But if history is any guide, should higher prices persist, energy use will over time continue to decline, relative to GDP.1 Long-term demand elasticities have proved noticeably higher than those that are evident short term. Altering the magnitude and manner of U.S. energy consumption will significantly affect the path of the U.S. economy over the long term.
There are some structural factors that could drive credit growth, namely, the emergence of consumer loans, the shrinking of spreads on alternate assets and a higher risk appetite because of stronger foreclosure norms and statutory support for enforcement of creditor rights.