And it is credible only if the domestic financial sector BIS Review 81/1998  -3is sound enough to stand a temporary monetary contraction if the necessity arises. That scarcely seems to be the case in Russia at the moment. External arrangements have to be particularly realistic.
That said, credit availability is likely to be tighter than before, consumer confidence is down, and businesses will probably be a little more cautious for a while, suggesting that these components of aggregate demand could become more subdued in coming months. Over time, however, I anticipate that the economy will move back onto a moderate growth track.