First, I see increasing recognition by the private and public sectors that a broad reopening can proceed safely.i2 The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has dropped most socialdistancing recommendations for vaccinated people.23 Although local COVID-19 restrictions on schooling and economic activity continue in some areas, most schools are teaching in person at least part time and more than half of states have dropped all capacity constraints on restaurants, bars, and retail establishments.
More than a dozen more states are planning to do so over the coming weeks. With these reopenings, consumer spending, which is two-thirds of gross domestic product (GDP), will remain robust, supported by personal income that has, thanks to significant fiscal support, now surpassed the trend it was on before the COVID event.