This is despite the fact that the people who made this estimate obviously could not have had any knowledge of many of the non-demographic forces that would be at work over the relevant years. One can't help but observe that, in common discussion about the economic outlook, we too often ignore the influence of demography.
But it may be that demographic forces are a common factor behind some of the most important “big force” developments. It seems likely that the characteristics of the “baby boom” cohort – its relative size and different propensities from those of other generations – have affected saving and investment choices, housing markets, asset values, leverage and so on through time.