Tetlock and Gardner, Superforecasting. 1  It has often been said that there is no escaping forecasting. Every decision we make in life involves forming a view about what the future might hold. Likewise, there is no escape for the Bank.
We have a Policy Targets Agreement that requires us to keep future inflation between 1 and 3 percent and therefore we need to form a view of where we currently are, how future developments might influence the path of output and inflation, and thus how we should respond.