To confirm that expectation, it will be important to see a significant strengthening in growth in the second quarter after the apparent softness of the past two quarters. To support this growth narrative, I also expect the ongoing healing process in labor markets to continue, with strong job growth, further reductions in headline unemployment and other measures of slack, and increases in wage inflation.
A large and integrated single market is the cornerstone of the EU, but the member states also benefit from open global markets. At the same time, the transformation brought about by globalisation and the digital revolution has resulted in winners and losers. This, in turn, has helped to promote populist policies promising easy answers to difficult questions. Protectionism, however, is not an answer.