Although most recent analyses seem to indicate that in the euro area it lies within a corridor of 2% to 3%, I would not be surprised if the lower bound of the estimated range is revised downwards as a result of the lower growth in productivity in the euro area during the past ten years.
Owing to the high level of uncertainty surrounding the estimates of the natural interest rate, great caution is called for when using them. The natural interest rate does not constitute an intermediate objective of the ECB’s monetary policy. Competitiveness is improving in Germany, including as a result of wage cuts. Is this a “recipe” for other countries, like Italy?