Despite the unstable functioning of the markets since the summer, payment and settlement systems have not undergone major disruption. When financial markets experience turmoil, foreign exchange transactions are generally prone to settlement risk because of the time difference, and this can jeopardize the markets further.
In our view, a single forecast is not a sufficient statistic given the complexity of economic relationships and the existing uncertainties about the future. We are living in a complex environment in which policy decisions cannot be simply related to a few or even one information variable. There is also the risk that we are chasing our own tail.