Of course, inferences from market prices are always imprecise, because prices depend on expected growth, the variation surrounding that expected path, and investor risk aversion, none of which we can precisely observe. Market liquidity may further confound the inference challenges. Allow me to comment, nonetheless, on a few key indicators. Look at the current configuration of Treasury yields across the maturity spectrum.
The notable exception to this practice was the former Chairman Alan Greenspan though his successor Mr. Ben Bernanke is clearly revisiting the approach, perhaps for very valid reasons. Guidance on future course becomes far more difficult when the policy rates of monetary authorities get closer to what appears to be the relevant range of neutral interest rates.