In the current expansion the current account deficit has remained fairly stable relative to GDP, whereas it had usually begun to widen at this point in previous expansions (figure 5). Indeed, reflecting these episodes, the Bank and others had been forecasting the current account deficit to widen throughout most of the post-GFC period (figure 6).
Figure 5: Current account over GDP expansions (annual total, share of GDP)  Source: Statistics New Zealand, RBNZ estimates. Note: Expansions based on estimates from Hall and McDermott (2016), with data shown as quarters from the trough.