This explains why we have spent so much time talking about, and researching, the excessively rapid growth in housing credit and, until recently, house prices. While other economic variables were more important for the overall macro-economic outlook, for example consumption and wage growth, their behaviour was not as clearly aberrant and therefore not in need of such intensive study.
You can see that process at work again in these Projections . One point made in relation to FPS when it was first introduced bears repeating. While it is an important tool which helps shape our view of the economy and its likely future path, it is not a ‘black box’.