Secondly, the many twists and turns of Brexit have increased uncertainty about under what terms the EU will trade with the UK in the future. This has already affected euro area trade with the UK. If a so-called hard Brexit materializes, it would certainly have a negative effect on euro area growth.
For euro area exports, the UK is the second largest destination, almost as large as the United States. In addition to the disturbances related to international trade, we can also ask whether the long upswing after the Great Recession is maturing. The United States economy is experiencing the longest period of growth in its history and seems to be enjoying almost full employment.