In the labor market, private payroll employment has declined this year, falling at an average pace of 94,000 jobs per month through June. Employment in the construction and manufacturing sectors has been particularly hard hit, although employment declines in a number of other sectors are evident as well. The unemployment rate has risen and now stands at 5-1/2 percent.
In the United States, the economy has moved beyond what most consider to be full employment, inflation is close to the Fed's target and expectations are that the Federal Open Market Committee will continue to raise its policy rate; moreover, the United States is embarking on a significant fiscal expansion.