At the same time, oil prices were gradually but steadily increasing, and the exchange rate of the euro depreciated significantly. The resulting increase in import prices was having a substantial effect on consumer price inflation. In an environment of accelerating economic growth, to levels above potential, this could have been followed by what are known as second-round effects, with possible longer-lasting effects on inflation.
In addition, the high growth of M3 – well above the reference value of 4½% – and the development of credit aggregates clearly indicated that risks to price stability were moving to the upside.