The goods account surplus will narrow in scale as import growth outstrips that of exports and the services, income and transfers account will move more deeply into the red owing to sharply increased overseas travel payments. The future outlook is surrounded by no small degree of uncertainty with the opposing interplay of upside and downside risks.
Upside risks are as follows: As private sector deleveraging is now in its closing stages including the shift back to an increase in bank lending, global financial conditions return to a normal state at an early stage. The growth of the world economy expands amid a more rapid than expected improvement in labor market conditions in the US and other major countries.