Moreover, if a recession began about March 2001, as the NBER suggests – that is, almost a year ago – we would normally expect to see some signs of a turning point getting close by now. The behaviour of manufacturing production and orders, inventories, some labour market data, and financial market prices are all consistent with that idea.
However, there is a fundamental inconsistency relating to time when it comes to the cost-benefit analysis of reform measures: cost is immediate, whereas benefits are only realized in the long 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  term. Thus, the time horizon over which reforms yield measurable outcomes usually exceeds a government’s time horizon.