I now have much pleasure in officially opening the ADB/APEC FRTI Market Supervision Regional Seminar and wish you all a fruitful and successful programme. VINAKA VAKALEVU. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
Uncertainty about potential output translates into uncertainty about the output gap between potential and actual output. It has always been tricky to base monetary policy on output gaps. Research by Orphanides suggests that the Great Inflation was to a large extent due to mismeasurement of potential output and the output gap. 6 It appears virtually impossible to determine output gaps in real time.