First, demographic forces are no longer in China’s favour – the working-age population is projected to shrink by about 5 per cent by 2030. 8 Second, China’s reliance on investment is not sustainable – it was 46 per cent of GDP in 2014, compared with 25 per cent for other emerging-market and developing economies and 20 per cent for advanced economies.
However, more work remains to be completed before a process is established to fully implement the guidelines. In the meantime, there is a risk that the guidelines could establish false expectations regarding the timeline for evaluating and acting on these requests.