We consider a number of alternative scenarios for the future and try to manage the relative risks of a policy decision if the future does not turn out as expected. I would compare that task with the judgments other professions might be required to make throughout the year.
Since we are in South Dakota and farming is a familiar industry, let’s use that as a comparison. Every farmer has an outlook for the costs of seed, fertilizer and other inputs, and the prices the crop might yield at the end of the growing season.