The Forecasters Club of New York is an ideal forum for me to offer this commentary because, in my view, the recent policy action must be understood not in terms of where the economy has been recently, but rather in terms of the change in the forecast, a change in expectations about where the economy likely would be in six or twelve months in the absence of a policy change.
Before proceeding, let me emphasize that the views on the economic outlook and monetary policy strategy I present this afternoon are my own. I am not speaking for either the FOMC or the Board of Governors or for any other individual members.