Since those consumers who had the most to gain from refinancing have mostly already done so, a slowdown in refinancing is unlikely to have a significant effect on household spending. The forecast through 2004: Inflation I turn now from the forecast for real activity to the outlook for inflation.
If a central bank attempts to get unemployment below the NAIRU rate, the result will be more inflation but only a small and temporary increase in the number of jobs. Page 7 of 12  What, then, is the NAIRU rate in South Africa? It is difficult to estimate, in part because the relevant data are incomplete.