Chart 5 b  Supply shocks likely contributed to decline in market-based inflation expectations Counterfactual path of the 10-year euro area inflation-linked swap in the absence of supply-side drivers (percentages per annum)  Sources: ECB calculations. Notes: The model is a four variable BVAR containing the 10-year real OIS rate, the EA 10-year ILS rate, EA equity prices, and the nominal effective exchange rate.
See Copeland, Duffie and Yang (2021). 20. See, for example, Deutsche Bundesbank (2022b). 21. There are other examples of insolvency forecasts: the German Economic Institute and BVR (Bundesverband der Deutschen Volksbanken und Raiffeisenbanken) (Bundesverband der Deutschen Volksbanken und Raiffeisenbanken) estimated an increase of corporate insolvencies of up to 30% in 2020 compared to 2019.