*  *  *  It has been a number of years since the foreign exchange rate of the dollar has played so prominent a role in evaluations of economic activity. I have no intention today of discussing the foreign exchange policy of the United States. That is the province of the Secretary of the Treasury.
Nor do I intend to project exchange rates. My experience is that exchange markets have become so efficient that virtually all relevant information is embedded almost instantaneously in exchange rates to the point that anticipating movements in major currencies is rarely possible.