As of yet, there is not a consensus about either the magnitude or the time pattern of the acceleration in productivity. The upper end of the range of estimates for trend productivity today is between 3 percent and 3-1/2 percent.
I used 3-1/2 percent as the estimate of q today in deriving the estimate of the disinflationary effect of productivity and the range for the short-run NAIRU. This decision obviously maximizes the potential importance of the acceleration of productivity in explaining the relationship between inflation and unemployment in this episode.