This decline brings the terms of trade back to around their level in the mid 2000s, which was considerably higher than their average of the 1990s. The peak in mining investment occurred around a year after the peak in the terms of trade. In mid 2012, mining investment reached a record high of around $ billion per quarter.
Since that time, it has fallen significantly to be around $ billion in the June quarter this year. Further declines still lie ahead as more projects are completed, although the end of these large declines now looks to be coming into sight; our current forecasts have mining investment declining to around $ billion per quarter by the end of 2017.