I also remember reading his considerations on the minor role of railroads in the Italian post unity decades and their factual importance for growth in the United States (helping to properly interpret Fogel’s “provocative”, as he defined it, major contribution). Indeed his insufficiently quoted 1973 paper on the methodology of counterfactual analysis in the Journal of European Economic History is a true masterpiece.
Were such an assumption to lead to increasing speculative activity, accompanied by a renewed increase in household leverage with all the associated risks to the housing market and the economy more generally, that would be unwelcome. This is a theme discussed in some detail in our latest Financial Stability Review, released earlier  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  today.