Cerutti, Dagher, and Dell’Arricia (2015) find that the probability of a  credit and house price boom being followed within three years by a recession is between 59 and 67 percent, depending on the precise definition of a boom episode. 3 The concept of a merit good is defined in Musgrave (1987).
So far, the recent contractual agreements do not suggest any strong upturn in wage growth, in a context where margins of spare capacity in the labour market are still ample.