Most notably, flexibility is warranted to adjust our views on the natural rate over time, when new signals from its underlying forces emerge.
They include: the continued cooling of the global economy and a further deterioration in terms of trade an escalation of the military conflict in eastern Ukraine and new trade restrictions introduced by Russia a drop in the harvest of grain, fruit and vegetable crops in Ukraine in the wake of unfavorable weather the higher volatility of global food prices, driven by global climate change a decrease in foreign capital inflows.