In terms of the equations we have been discussing, layoffs could increase somewhat, instead of staying constant. Matching efficiency could also improve or deteriorate. The vacancy rate could also change more or  8  The unemployment rate found on the slide is not a prediction and simply an illustrative example. - 14 less than I have assumed.
Thus, I’m not arguing that the unemployment rate will end up exactly as the Beveridge curve I’ve drawn suggests. But I do think it quite plausible that the unemployment rate will end up in the vicinity of what the Beveridge curve currently predicts.