Consistently, analysts have revised their forecasts for Mexican GDP growth downward for the current year but, in general, they have kept their forecasts the same for 2014.2 Even though downside risks to near-term growth forecasts appear to have increased for this year, for next year upside risks may remain.
In particular, if the recovery in U.S. manufacturing consolidates in the following months, the upswing could fuel manufacturing in Mexico, with favorable effects on other sectors of the economy. In the medium term, economic expansion in Mexico will continue to depend on productivity growth, the lack of which has been the biggest drag on income improvement.