In addition, downward pressure from the decline in energy prices will gradually dissipate. Therefore, the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) is likely to be about 0 percent for the time being but accelerate toward 2 percent as the negative contribution of energy prices on a year-on-year basis narrows in the second half of fiscal 2015.
Although the timing of the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI reaching around 2 percent depends on developments in crude oil prices, this is projected to happen around the first half of fiscal 2016, when the negative contribution of energy prices will become almost zero, assuming that crude oil prices will rise moderately from the recent level.