In addition, the right-hand panel shows considerable changes over time in estimates of the normal longer-run rate of  13  Historically, percent deviations of real GDP from statistical estimates of its long-run trend are roughly twice as large on average as deviations of the unemployment rate from its estimated long-run value--a relationship known as Okun’s law.
- 11 unemployment, with corresponding implications for estimates of the economy’s productive potential and the output gap. Such revisions would imply shifts in the level of the Taylor rule’s prescriptions by as much as 1-1/4 percentage points, holding other factors constant.