In assessing the risk that such transitory pricing pressures get embedded in persistently high inflation, it is critical to remember that inflation averaged less than 2 percent over the past quarter-century, and that statistical measures of trend inflation ran  consistently below 2 percent for decades before the pandemic.
5 Relative to the entrenched inflation dynamics that existed before the pandemic, the sharp temporary increases in some categories of goods and services seem unlikely to leave an imprint on longer-run inflation behavior. To be sure, I will keep a close watch on a range of indicators for any signs of an unwelcome change in longer-term inflation expectations.