We project that, on an annual average basis, growth in Canada's gross domestic product will slow from about 3½% in 2022 to about 1% in 2023 and 2% in 2024. Lower energy prices, improved global supply chains and slowing demand should bring inflation down significantly this year.
We expect CPI inflation to fall to around 3% in the middle of this year and reach the 2% target in 2024. Needless to say, there are risks around this projection. The biggest near-term risk is that global energy prices could increase, pushing inflation up globally.