Note, however, that even the weakest economic view coupled with the first-difference rule has the funds rate rising above the zero lower bound next quarter. This picture is analogous, but not in a precise way, to a fan chart. I have indicated throughout my talk the imprecision of our knowledge about the economy.
This is a necessary dose of discipline and responsibility that all civilized markets have, as now does the NBU. The NBU has significantly improved the corporate governance of state-owned banks. They are now required to have independent supervisory boards or else face the consequences of breaking the law. The NBU has adopted risk-based supervision and strengthened its financial monitoring function.