4  4  See e.g. ESRB (2014): Is Europe Overbanked? Report of the Advisory Scientific Committee. BIS central bankers’ speeches  When evaluating these changes, it is useful to recall the history of major technological breakthroughs.
One of the lessons of history is that we tend to overestimate the impacts of new players and technologies in the short term but underestimate these in the long term. 5 In the light of this observation, we may end up exaggerating the short-term effects of the much-discussed potential game-changers like shadow banks or digitalisation on the financial system and financial stability.