Hamilton and others have run a series of causality tests to these macro data and do find significant causal effects for oil prices. One can also analyze oil price shocks by using structural econometric models. These models would typically build in some sort of price-responsiveness behavior to measure pass-through effects.
Let me also remind us that I am in the purdah period, and nothing I will say can be interpreted in terms of future monetary policy. We all know that the Chinese leader Zhou Enlai, when asked in 1971 about the impact of the French revolution, famously replied that it was “too early to tell”.