More recently crude oil prices have declined to below $ per barrel and if this trend continues, we could see a moderate decline in petrol prices in November. However the volatility of international oil prices means that significant upside risk remains. There are a number of other developments that also pose risks to the inflation outlook.
The latest inflation expectations survey conducted by the Bureau for Economic Research at the University of Stellenbosch indicates that there has been a marginal deterioration in inflation expectations which may be a result of the impact of the higher petrol prices.