3  See Hoekman, B. (2015): “The Global Trade Slowdown: A New Normal?”, a VoxEU.org eBook, June; and European Central Bank (2016): “Understanding the Weakness in Global Trade: What is the New Normal?”, ECB Occasional Paper No. 178, September.
3  Second, the possibility of renewed episodes of increased volatility in international financial markets is at present much more likely, given the combination of highly integrated international financial markets, the above described situation of uncertainty, the perspective of tighter global financial conditions derived mainly from the normalization of monetary policy in the United States, the vulnerable situation of several major advanced and emerging market economies, and the potential for geopolitical problems in a number of regions of the world, among other factors.