For this to be the case, it would be important for government to provide temporary support to enterprises and workers then as well. For example, if the lockdown were to remain in effect for a longer period in the second quarter, the economic recovery (relative to the December projection) would arguably only be postponed, essentially.
Admittedly, our economists would then accordingly have to downsize the growth rate of 3% they projected for 2021 in their December forecast. That said, the German economy could return to its pre-crisis level at a similar point in time to that [3] projected in the forecast, i.e.