There will inevitably be both measurement noise and a variety of biases in these individual measures. It is important to cut through that noise and estimate a sensible measure of the trend. Again, both data and a judgement about the smoothness of that trend must be brought to bear on that assessment.
Secondly, there are concerns that the neutral rate of interest －an important guiding measure for policy stance－may have fallen significantly. A lower neutral interest rate means that we have smaller room for policy rate cuts in face of the economic downturn. It makes the interest rate more likely to reach its lower bound, making it difficult for us to address business cycles.