As I noted earlier, some upward pressure on inflation is likely going forward as forces retraining inflation dissipate or reverse, though a similar statement would have been in order at this time last year. The expected persistence of the special forces restraining inflation is therefore an important consideration in forecasting inflation and in assessing the appropriate course of monetary policy.
Our analysis shows that as long as the markets do not regard our published interest rate path as a commitment, there are benefits for the economy from the publication of the numbers.6 There are various ways of communicating the policy outlook. We present our projection as a single narrow line.