The June SEP shows that 15 of 19 participants see the first rate increase happening in 2015 or 2016. The path of rates will ultimately depend on the path of the economy, and the Committee has said that the first rate increase will not happen until a considerable time has elapsed after asset purchases have been concluded.
One aspect of this exercise was to look hypothetically at what might occur if house prices did fall substantially and if the unemployment rate increased sharply, given current lending exposures. The exercise assumed movements that were extreme, but by no means implausible, by international standards.