The Planning Document raises the forecast for the ratio of pension expenditure to GDP in the period 2010-50, basically to take account of the lower estimates of GDP growth. The increase in the relative importance of the liabilities associated with the pension system is another adverse consequence of the recession.
According to the Planning Document, in 2010 pension expenditure is likely to be 15.5 per cent of GDP, 1.4 percentage points higher than the official estimates released at the beginning of 2008. In the following years the gap between the two sets of forecasts tends to narrow; in 2050 it is 0.7 percentage points of GDP.