Looking ahead, the most recent growth forecasts of the South African Reserve Bank suggest growth of 1,1 per cent in 2017 and 1,6 per cent in 2018. However, it should be noted that the recent monthly data for the fourth quarter suggest that there may be a downside risk to these forecasts.
It is clear that the deceleration in the South African economy has underlying structural causes. The economy’s estimated potential growth rate has been revised downwards to approximately 1,4 per cent.