As usual, I will start by reviewing the forecasts I gave to the Committee six months ago in Brisbane, then provide you with an update of our current forecasts. I will then move on to discussing the risks to these forecasts, both in the upward and the downward direction.
Last December we thought that GDP growth in calendar 2003 would be about 3½ per cent. We now know that it came in at 3.9 per cent, with the second half of the year being a lot stronger than the first half, but with growth slipping to 3.2 per cent in the four quarters to March 2004.