Together with another 0.5% decline coming from the labor factor that I mentioned, the economic growth rate overall will decline by as much as 1%. The third problem caused by the population aging is increasing doubt about the sustainability of the pension system. Chart 8 shows that the Japanese birthrate has been steadily declining, with the most recent figure being as low as 1.32.
If it continues for the next hundred years, a rough estimate suggests that Japan’s population will become only one-third of the current population. While a much higher birthrate is required to maintain the current pension system, raising the birthrate in a short  2  BIS Review 36/2004  period of time is not realistic.