GDP is gross domestic product; PCE is personal consumption expenditures; core PCE excludes food and energy items. GDP growth and inflation projections are four−quarter percent changes through 2019:Q4; the unemployment rate projection is for 2019:Q4. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters (retrieved from https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research−and−data/real−time−center/survey−of− professional−forecasters), and Real−Time Data Set: Full−Time Series History (retrieved from https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research−and−data/real−time−center/real−time−data). Figure 2.
Estimates of the neutral rate of interest and the natural rate of unemployment have been falling  FOMC  Blue Chip  Neutral Real Rate of Interest (r*)  CBO  Natural Rate of Unemployment (u*) Percent  2013  2015  2017  2019  Percent 2.5  6.0  2.0  5.5  1.5  5.0  1.0  4.5  0.5  4.0  2013  2015  2017  2019  Note: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) data are quarterly, extend through September 2019, and are projections of these measures over the longer run.