In Europe, numerous downside risks that were top of mind a year ago have not, in fact, materialised – which is no small achievement. Moreover, there are signs of a modest cyclical upturn in economic activity. That said, those downside risks still exist and the recovery has been described by ECB President Draghi as weak, uneven, fragile and starting from very low levels.
China, meanwhile, has continued to grow, more or less in line with the objectives of the Chinese authorities. This is more moderate than the double-digit rates China recorded in earlier times. But it is still a robust performance and China is now a big economy whose performance matters for the rest of the world.