The projections foresee average annual real GDP growth in a range between 2.5% and 2.9% in 2006, between 1.7% and 2.7% in 2007 and between 1.8% and 2.8% in 2008. Most recent forecasts by international organisations give a broadly similar picture.
In comparison with the September ECB staff projections, the ranges projected for real GDP growth in 2006 and 2007 have been revised upwards, largely reflecting the assumption of lower energy prices and their impact on real disposable income. In the Governing Council’s view, the risks surrounding this broadly favourable outlook for economic growth over the projection horizon lie on the downside.