Excluding the direct effects of the consumption tax hike, the rate has been about 0 percent recently. 2. Outlook  Japan’s economy is expected to continue recovering moderately. On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI is likely to be about 0 percent for the time being, due to the effects of the decline in energy prices.
Nevertheless, as the underlying trend in prices steadily rises and the effects of the decline in crude oil prices dissipate, the rate is likely to accelerate toward 2 percent – the price stability target. Risks to the outlook are those that primarily stem from overseas factors.