Whereas the oil price shocks of the 1970s, 1980s and the shock in 1990 were accompanied by a severe slowdown in global growth and outright recessions in many oil-importing countries, the current oil price increases are coinciding with the most favourable scenario for the global economy in the past 35 years.
Global GDP growth is estimated by the IMF at 4.8% in 2005, compared with 5.3% in 2004 (historical average: 3½%). And real growth in advanced economies in 2004/05 was above the long-term average and, according to the latest IMF outlook, is projected to stay at around 3% this year and next year.