Real gross domestic product (GDP) is now estimated to have been little changed in the first quarter after having risen at an average annual rate of 3–1/2 percent over the second half of last year, and industrial production has declined a bit, on balance, since the turn of the year.
However, they cannot be made the sole tool for the conduct of monetary policy: economic forecasts never encompass all the relevant information, and they can never be a substitute for the judgement that is needed on the part of the policy-maker. A further important aspect of economic analysis is a thorough assessment of economic shocks and dynamics.