However, over much of the past 18 months or so, higher commodity prices appear to have worked to limit the extent of Australian dollar depreciation. 5 Indeed, commodity prices have increased noticeably of late. This largely reflects disruptions to supply, particularly of iron ore. In short, there are a number of forces affecting the Australian dollar, but they have been pulling in different directions.
In other words, when Reuters says that the teams at the European Central Bank presented to the Governing Council a scenario envisaging an increase in the rates in mid-2019, it’s a scenario that you are telling us you are ruling out? This is what the markets are forecasting; the ECB’s teams have Bloomberg screens like everybody else.