Most members of the Federal Open Market Committee consider the task of staying ahead of the curve to be among their most challenging job requirements. Economic data series are released every day, and the usual pattern is that some indicators point upward and some point downward, many have seasonal adjustment problems, and many are significantly revised in subsequent months and years.
I have argued elsewhere (Grenville 1997) that, if there is an identifiable principal problem, it is more deep-seated and lies in the fragility of the financial sector. It has many of the characteristics of an old-fashioned bank liquidity crisis, with failing confidence at the heart of the problem.