I had been anticipating a notable move up in inflation beginning in April and lasting several months due to a combination of base effects and temporary reopening supply and demand  See Wendy Edelberg and Louise Sheiner (2021), “The Macroeconomic Implications of Biden’s $ Trillion Fiscal Package,” Brookings Institute, Up Front (blog), https://www.brookings.edu/blog/upfront/2021/01/28/the-macroeconomic-implications-of-bidens-1-9-trillion-fiscal-package. 3  mismatches.
4 Core PCE inflation moved up to 3.1 percent on a 12-month basis in April, while 12-month total PCE inflation rose to 3.6 percent amid high energy prices. A significant portion of these 12-month readings reflect contributions from base effects that resulted from the pandemic-related price declines in March 2020 dropping out of the 12month calculation.