That inference is consistent with the formal model estimates, which indicate that the shorter-run neutral rate has gone up as the expansion has advanced. This is also suggested by the observation that overall financial conditions, as measured by a variety of indexes, have remained quite accommodative during a period when the federal funds rate has been moving higher.
In the latest FOMC SEP median path, by the end of next year, the federal funds rate is projected to rise to a level that exceeds the longer-run federal funds rate during a  8  A variety of hypotheses have been advanced to explain this decline, including slower labor force growth, slower productivity growth, and an increase in savings propensities.