And, as it turned out, the boom in our terms of trade had further – a lot further – to run. By the time of the 2010 dinner, it was time to introduce this chart, which has been a feature of my presentations since then.
The terms of trade had just broken through the peak of two years earlier and, on a five-year moving average basis, were at their highest level since Federation (Graph 1). Our assumption was that the terms of trade would probably peak that year, in 2010, before declining steadily over the next few years.