Although the timespan since the start of the EMU is too short for any strong empirical conclusions, evidence based on long-term trends of European integration gives some support to both views, leaving it fairly open as to where we might be heading.
According to an overview published by the European Commission5, there have so far only been modest changes in the pattern of industrial concentration and geographical specialisation within the euro area. While production specialisation has gradually increased since the 1970s, export specialisation appears to have decreased, which could be partly explained by the increased importance of intra-industry trade.