The economic growth rate in emerging economies and countries that export natural resources will likely remain high and it is also relatively likely that the current phase of slow growth in advanced economies will come to an end and the growth rate will gradually recover. What are the risk factors that may hamper the realization of this main scenario?
Two major risk factors could be pointed out. The first is the upsurge in commodity prices and the global increase in inflationary pressures. The second is the developments in global financial markets and in the U.S. and European economies under the influence of the subprime loan problem.