It is that the wrong conclusions will be drawn, based on partial or simply wrong analysis, with the result that structural problems in various countries will not be addressed, and/or that protectionism will flourish, under the guise of attempts to affect bilateral “imbalances”. That would undermine the global openness that has helped to produce the enhanced stability we have been enjoying.
Conclusion It is frustrating that we cannot offer a definitive assessment of the adequacy or otherwise of pricing for risk. Taking a long historical perspective, it is not unreasonable to claim that risk – at least aggregate economic variability – really is lower, in some important dimensions, than it was 10 or 20 years ago.