The three episodes on which I concentrate my attention are relatively uncontroversial in that the recessions followed rather substantial asset-price boom-bust cycles. But other recessions, which followed milder boom-bust cycles, could be added to this list. Examples would be the recessions that started in 1974 in the United States, in 1981 in Canada, and in 1990 in the United Kingdom.
BIS Review 2/2005  5  6  BIS Review 2/2005  We have compared the average path of asset prices around the onset of the recession in these three episodes to the average path of asset prices in the other episodes in our sample (figure 2, top panel). The vertical line marks the quarter in which the recession began.