That is a good reason why, as my US colleague, Tim Geithner, 19 suggested recently, thoughtful managers will surely be using the good times to strengthen resilience, and will be wary of the “late cycle” tendency for risk management and credit standards to become lax. Even if the future is pretty stable, there will still be a business cycle.
Some occasional counter-cyclical behaviour gives us the best chance of continuing the stable, steady conditions – and good returns for investors – that markets seem so confidently to expect. 19  Timothy F. Geithner (2006), “Risk Management Challenges in a Changing Financial Environment” http://www.bis.org/review/r060407a.pdf). BIS Review 49/2006  (available at  9