External demand has been less positive, but this may partly reflect a pullback from the very strong export performance of last year, as well as temporary factors in our main trading partners. Yet what is undeniable is that uncertainty surrounding the growth outlook has recently increased.
The downside risks to the outlook come from three main sources: the threat of increased global protectionism prompted by the imposition of steel and aluminium tariffs by the United States; rising oil prices triggered by geopolitical risks in the Middle East; and the possibility for persistent heightened financial market volatility.