By some estimates, the natural rate of unemployment is substantially lower now.4 For example, the Congressional Budget Office now estimates that the natural rate was about 5-3/4 percent (and rising) in the late 1960s, compared with 4-3/4 percent at present.5 Rising education levels do point to a decline in the natural rate since the 1960s, because more highly educated people are less likely to be unemployed.
The share of the population with a college degree has risen from less than 15 percent in the late 1960s to nearly 40 percent now, and the share with less than a high school degree has declined  4  The natural rate of unemployment is the unemployment rate over the longer term that is consistent with low and stable inflation.