*  *  *  This spring marks the end of the Federal Reserve’s calendar-based forward guidance and the return to full data dependency in the setting of the federal funds rate.
So it is notable that just as policymaking is becoming more anchored in meeting-by-meeting assessments of the data, the data are presenting a mixed picture that lends itself to materially different readings. 1 No doubt, bad weather, port disruptions, and statistical issues are responsible for some of the softness in first-quarter indicators of aggregate spending.