New techniques, such as autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models, now allow researchers to better construct uncertainty variables. 42  Fay and Lavoie (2002). 43  This refers to the uncertainty measure derived from an ARCH model, and expressed in terms of the standard deviation of inflation uncertainty. Other measures of inflation uncertainty give different results.
For the same product offered by the FDIC, private insurers would have to charge premiums far higher than those of government insurance, and still not be able to match the certainty of payments in the event of default, the hallmark of a government insurer backed by the sovereign credit of the United States.