The most recent forecasts, as you know, suggest that inflation will remain about where it is at present for a few quarters and then move up during 2005, as the effects of the earlier rise in the exchange rate gradually wane.
These forecasts are a little higher than ones made earlier in the year partly because the exchange rate is not as high as it was then.11 So looking back over this period of seven years we find that, early on, our inflation forecasts tended to persistently be a bit high (a pattern observed for a few years prior to 1997 as well).