It is the macroeconomic version of the old rule about how you go bankrupt: slowly, then quickly. The point is that you get a lot of bad data before the system breaks. Experts will warn about a crisis, and after a while, these warnings will become part of the background noise. But when the crisis comes, its timing will still surprise everyone.
In South Africa, we are getting used to talking about a crisis. Every time the Minister of Finance presents a new Budget or MTBPS1 to Parliament, the press calls it a ‘make or break’ event, or the most important budget since the dawn of democracy. I have been answering questions about a Moody’s downgrade for years.