The short-term forward rate ten years ahead estimated from the yield curve for U.S. Treasury coupon securities has ranged between 4-3/4 percent and 5-3/4 percent over the past year, nearly 175 basis points (that is, about 1-3/4 percent) below its average level since 1990.
Far-forward rates in many other advanced economies have also declined on balance over the past decade, and they are currently around the low end of their historical ranges. 3 Low far-forward rates have both a real and a nominal component. I believe that relatively low real forward rates are likely driven at least in part by what some have called a global saving glut.