During seven months it surpassed the upper limit of the variability interval of plus or minus one percentage point around the permanent target of 3 percent established by the Bank of Mexico. Factors exerting pressure on inflation included the international draught and the domestic bird flu epidemic that resulted in significant agricultural price increases, and some pass-through from peso depreciation to merchandise prices.
In December 2012 and January 2013, inflation fell to below 4 percent, a welcome development in light of the previous considerable deviation from the target. Nevertheless, the recent decline in inflation should be seen with caution. This is because, first, it is based only on two observations, which cannot yet be proven to be the beginning of a new trend.