Looking forward, the central forecast is for underlying inflation of around 1¾ per cent this year, 2 per cent next year and a little higher the following year. In headline terms, inflation is expected to be noticeably higher in the June quarter, due to the recent increase in petrol prices.
While it is important to learn from past vulnerabilities – as has typically been the focus to date – we also need to do more to identify extreme hypothetical scenarios and consider the full range of potential risks, such as financial, conjunctural, geopolitical, cyber and environmental risks.