BIS Review 28/2008  1  States, however, a rise in oil prices driven by stronger real Chinese activity would not necessarily lead U.S. export volumes to rise substantially, given the low propensity of China to import from the United States.
Policymakers focus on the inflation outlook, and so we need to consider what global forces imply for the future when assessing the inflation consequences of rising commodity prices. Will prices for crude oil and other commodities continue to rise rapidly in the face of robust growth in China and other newly industrializing economies?