Each month the point estimates are dutifully reported. But that’s what they are: point estimates. The ABS provides a band of uncertainty around those estimates, which is ±30,000. Not so large a forecast error in terms of the level of employment, but it is large in terms of the monthly changes. Do you report the full range of this uncertainty?
On this, Manski cites LBJ, ‘Ranges are for cattle. Give me a number’. So what is the signal versus the noise in each monthly release? You need to filter and clarify. Maybe use the trend, though trends are generally slow to pick turning points, just like a lot of forecasters. You can bring other information to bear, cross-validate, consistency check.