There are also going to be periods where growth is stronger than expected – as it was in the first half of 2018 – and other periods, like now, where growth is weaker than expected. With the benefit of hindsight, there are a few factors that help explain the slowing in the Australian economy over the past year.
One is the international developments that I spoke about earlier. While Australia has been less directly affected by the US–China trade disputes than have many other countries, there is an indirect effect through slower global growth and increased global uncertainty. A second and more important factor is weak consumption growth.