BIS Review 84/2001  5  Another way of putting this, in slightly more technical language, is that policy making involves consideration both of the shape of the distribution of forecast outcomes, and of the "loss function" which the policy maker is carrying around in his or her head.
I believe this is what Dr Greenspan had in mind when he said the following: "The center of the forecast distribution, of necessity, is still important to our deliberations but, more than many people realize, policymaking is to a substantial extent focused on the potential deviations from the central forecast and the costs should those outcomes prevail.