I'm not the only one whose outlook has shifted. Since the end of January, financial market participants have revised their outlooks in a way that has led them to mark up their expectations for the federal funds rate at the end of 2023 by about a half percentage point.
The shift in the data started with a bang on February 1, with a big increase in the number of job openings in December that reversed the gradual easing over several months in what is a key indicator of tightness in the labor market.