The data on business investment—including shipments of nondefense capital goods for June and July—have also surprised to the upside. 19 After falling by 22.2 million over March and April, nonfarm payroll employment increased by 7.5 million over May and June and by 1.8 million in July.
Furthermore, various high-frequency indicators tracked by Federal Reserve Board staff—including initial claims for unemployment insurance and employment in small businesses—suggest that the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed. 20 This refers to inflation as measured by the price index of personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy.