It is reinforced by base effects from declining oil prices at the turn of the year 1998/99. Oil prices increased further in early March, and in so doing will continue to place upward pressure on consumer prices in the short term.
The past movements of the exchange rate of the euro have increasingly become a cause for concern for price stability through their effect on import prices and producer prices. In the first half of March, the nominal effective exchange rate was 12.2% below the level recorded for the first quarter of 1999.