I say “appear”, because policymakers should be humble in their pronouncements.2 Estimates of the degree of slack in the economy vary widely and are often revised. Model outputs, however complex they may be, should be treated with due caution, and judgement based on experience remains an essential part of the policymaking process.
We should avoid making unwarranted statements about points in time too far into the future over which we have little true visibility. It also means that policy decisions not only should be based on the most likely outcome predicted by models, but should also take into account the balance of risks.