First, because a “trade war” scenario would add to global uncertainty at a time when some central banks have only just begun the process of unwinding the unconventional policy measures put in place following the global financial crisis.
And second, because a further adverse structural shock to productivity may lead us to be more often constrained in the longer term by the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates and to increase the need to resort to unconventional policy measures. Conclusions Let me conclude.