12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 9: Forecasts for end-2016 Fed base rate  Of course, this first Fed rate rise in many years might have adverse effects on emerging market economies (EMEs) given the history of emerging market crises (1979–1982 in Latin America, 1994–1995 in Asia) coinciding with the early stages of US monetary tightening cycles.
This time, a premature Fed tightening move would not trigger an emerging market crisis (since it has already broken out in China), but it would accentuate the crisis through spillovers to advanced economies. The most vulnerable countries are those with large fiscal and current account deficits or, to put it differently, those lacking political and policy credibility.