Several sources of uncertainty currently exist in the global economy including: The outlook for growth in Europe and the extent to which consumer and business confidence might be affected by issues such as Brexit negotiations, migration, upcoming elections in large European countries, the Greek debt negotiations and concerns regarding the vulnerability of some European banks.
The extent to which the US Administration follows through with its ‘America first” policy platform and adopts trade protectionist measures. Uncertainty also exists around the degree of fiscal stimulus likely to be adopted and its composition (e.g. through reductions in corporate tax rates, including border tax adjustments, and increases in infrastructure spending).