As you can see, there is a reasonable amount of uncertainty about the exact level of the neutral rate. Graph 4 also shows the (ex post) real cash rate calculated by deducting the trimmed mean inflation rate from the cash rate.7 When the real cash rate is above the neutral rate, the monetary policy stance is contractionary.
Business fixed investment has shown some weakness on the whole, although resilience has been observed in nonmanufacturing. In contrast, public investment has continued to increase, and housing investment has generally been picking up. Private consumption has remained resilient,  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  supported mainly by demand from the elderly.