1 In the report, economic outcome was first estimated using a macroeconometric model – based on a real interest rate channel – by exogenously plugging in a decline of minus 0.8 percent to long-term real interest rates (which were close to the estimated actual figure). Subsequently, this estimated value was compared with the actual value.
If the actual value exceeds the estimated value, this implies that there are some positive effects other than the real interest rate channel. The result was mixed. Although the estimated value exceeded the actual value in terms of the real GDP growth rate, the actual value exceeded the estimated value in terms of the output gap.