This can best be seen by referring to a real episode, such as, for example, the recent turmoil in monetary and financial markets and the surge in uncertainty it has produced. Since most forecasts are typically derived from quarterly macro-econometric models, they are still necessarily based on information gathered to a very large extent ahead of the recent financial crisis.
The aim is for the new budget to be approved by spring 2019, but the proposal has several contentious parts and difficult and longdrawn negotiations are expected between the Member States especially given the large budget gap to be left by the UK’s exit from the EU which may be addressed through additional funding from the EU-27, on which there is already strong opposition.