Over the longer term, risks to growth continue to lie on the downside, relating mainly to the possibility of a renewed increase in oil prices, fears of a rise in protectionist pressures, especially after the suspension of the Doha round of trade talks, and possible disorderly developments owing to global imbalances.
As regards price developments, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate annual HICP inflation was 1.6% in October, after having declined to 1.7% in September from 2.3% in August. The recent decline in inflation is the combined result of favourable base effects, given in particular the strong rise in oil prices a year ago, and the recent significant fall in oil prices.