The decline in aggregate income is bottoming out, but (in the second quarter of 2010) at a level perhaps 16 per cent lower than at the peak. (That’s GNP: economic activity, measured by GDP it is about 11 per cent down). Unemployment we think will continue to rise somewhat during 2010, though a reversal of net migration flows will serve to limit this.
The current recession has resulted in a significant deterioration in the labour market position of the young in the worst affected countries. In Germany, the unemployment rate has hardly moved during the recession, whether at the aggregate level or among the under-25s.