The last surprise occurred in March 2003 when markets had actually perfectly anticipated that we would decrease our main policy rates, but they were rather surprised about the size of the change, which was smaller than expected at that time. Market participants appear to have been able gradually to converge to a thorough understanding of the ECB’s monetary policy framework and communication mode.
Similar results on the degree of short-term predictability were found by a recent survey conducted by Barclays Capital among financial market participants. A sizeable majority of survey participants – 60% – felt either “very confident” or “confident” in the way they were able to anticipate policy decisions by the ECB.