No one knew if or when the war would start, or end. The possibilities that chemical or biological weapons might be used, that the war might spread, or that terrorists might again attack on U.S. soil seemed to be quite real. There was a risk that Iraq's oil fields might be damaged.
The ranges of possible outcomes and of their economic consequences were extremely wide. The uncertainty hit consumer confidence hard. The University of Michigan's survey of consumer attitudes reported that, by the middle of March, confidence had fallen to its lowest level since the early 1990s and was below what we would have expected given the state of the economy.