Part of this moderation can be attributed to the legacy of the global financial crisis and a lower level of growth in some of South Africa’s export-partner economies. However, a significant share is self-inflicted, reflecting slow gains in productivity, policy uncertainty and a lack of investment in key sectors.
At the current level of potential GDP growth – which the SARB estimates to be between 1.0% and 1.4% over the next three years – the economy is not able to generate real per capita income gains on a sustained basis.