24 The figure is not far off the value recorded in 2013 (20 per cent), at the end of the last recession. 25 Empirical analyses 26 lend support to the hypothesis that wage growth was held down in the last expansionary phase of the cycle by the fact that actual labour utilization was less than the unemployment rate indicated.
27 The second traditional determinant of inflation – i.e. expectations regarding its future path – can also be influenced by low observed inflation. When the economic context is undergoing change, firms and households without exhaustive information about the state of the economy may form their inflation expectations through a process of gradual learning, attributing the greatest weight to recent dynamics.