To get to a negative growth rate in the second quarter, and assuming the rest of the economy continues to grow at rates of around 2 per cent, we would have to have significant further contractions off the already low bases in both the mining and manufacturing sectors, and such contractions would have to be of similar orders of magnitude as in the first quarter.
Given that the platinum strike covered more than two months of the first quarter, it is unlikely that a further contraction of that order of magnitude will occur in the second quarter. Therefore, we do not believe that a recession is the most likely outcome. Should it transpire, it would be a very grim outcome indeed.