14 Statistical models estimate that underlying core PCE inflation ranges from 0.1 to 0.4 percentage point below the 2 percent longer-run target. See the point estimates for 2019:Q2 in table 1 in Jeremy B. Rudd (2020), “Underlying Inflation: Its Measurement and Significance,” FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 18), https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/underlying-inflation-its-measurement-andsignificance-20200918.htm.
15 See Hie Joo Ahn and Chad Fulton (2020), “Index of Common Inflation Expectations,” FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 2), https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2551. 13  -9to be higher for the next two years and to decline subsequently and remain stable 5 and 10 years into the future.