Experience suggests that supply shocks yield sharp transitory increases in inflation, possibly followed by smaller, more permanent “secondround” effects, though the longer-run impact on inflation is obviously significantly determined by the response of monetary policy.
Given the transitory nature of the initial inflation bursts, the simple hypothetical rule – which incorporates the reaction to expected inflation – would advise the central bank to “look through” the immediate disturbance and change policy only to the extent needed to offset the anticipated more permanent effects of the shock on inflation in subsequent quarters.