The revision stems from a reduction of € billion in revenue, partly connected to lower expected GDP growth, and to an increase of € billion in interest payments. In September Istat released new national accounts estimates for the last three years. Net borrowing for 2017 was revised upwards, from 2.3 to 2.4 per cent of GDP.
Compared with 2017, it is estimated that net borrowing will decrease by over half a percentage point of GDP, owing to an increase in the primary surplus (0.4 percentage points) and a reduction in interest payments (0.2 points). The tax burden will decline from 42.2 per cent in 2017 to 41.9 per cent this year, mainly due to developments in direct taxes.