As the war continues, there is a significant risk of a further escalation, which would entail larger direct and indirect effects on inflation. Tougher economic sanctions, e.g. including a complete embargo of Russian energy exports to Europe, have become increasingly likely. These would cause another spike in energy commodity prices and weigh on the economic outlook, at least in the short term.
Analysts' forecasts of long-term earnings growth for the Standard & Poor's 500 companies index declined from about 15 percent per year at their peak in 2000 to less than 12 percent recently (still a historically high level, however).