This is a much better outcome than was expected 12 months ago, when the IMF was forecasting growth of just 2 per cent. At the time, the outcomes that we have seen recently were viewed as a possible “upside risk”, although most observers thought the likelihood of this risk materialising was quite low.
The main focus at the time, as it has been over the past week, was on the possible downside risks which were seen to be both very real and very serious. BIS Review 67/2010  1  Graph 1  We now know that the various policy measures that were taken did help arrest the collapse of confidence following the failure of Lehman Brothers.