This is the third time I have had the privilege of doing so, but it is the first time here in Canberra. The world has changed tremendously since my previous address in February last year: a pandemic, the biggest contraction in output in generations, the closure of our borders, a very large fiscal stimulus, near zero interest rates and quantitative easing.
All that in just a year and none of it was predicted. It was therefore with some trepidation that I titled my remarks today, ‘The Year Ahead’. I did so, though, because at the start of a new year, I thought it important to explain how we are thinking about the Australian economy and monetary policy over the year ahead.