I would prefer to concentrate instead on the fundamental and most important elements of forecasting. So, where to start if one wants to generate a forecast?
As we are living in an ever-changing economic environment, the starting point of every forecast is a set of forward-looking assumptions, at least with respect to main economic variables such as future market interest rates, exchange rates, crude oil prices and both world trade and growth. The fact that economic projections are built on assumptions highlights their typical conditional nature.