Because of measurement issues, interpretation of that monthly figure is even more hazardous than usual, and this may remain so in the months ahead. Nonetheless, the data cannot be dismissed and are, on their face, concerning. Other indicators have mostly suggested a slight improvement in the labour market this year, not an accelerating deterioration.
The Bank’s reading, which we have had for a while, is that the labour market has a degree of spare capacity, and that it will be a while before we see unemployment decline consistently.