This has been made possible by the years long, consistent, systemic policy of the reformed NBU, which ensured the reduction of inflation to a single-digit figure and which will continue to be the main driver of inflation-reducing efforts in the years to come. The largest decrease is expected over 2020, along with inflation returning to the target range and inflation expectations improving.
If existing inflation risks, both internal and external, materialize, the key policy rate could decline to 8% more slowly. At the same time, higher demand for hryvnia government bonds from nonresidents and the subsequent strengthening of hryvnia will allow reducing the key policy rate at a faster pace than envisaged in the baseline scenario.