The economic outlook As you know, real GDP grew at an annual rate of 6.2 percent in the second half of 2003, and the economic fundamentals seem to be in place for another sizable advance this year. Indeed, the central tendency range of FOMC-member forecasts is 4-1/2 to 5 percent.
Yet despite the recent strong pace of economic activity, the labor market has improved at an unusually slow pace by historical standards. The most recent data - indicating a jump in payrolls in March - was good news, and I am cautiously optimistic that job growth will pick up further over the remainder of this year.