Even as our dependence on the US has diminished as shown by the drop in our direct exports to the US in recent years, and that trade with China, India and other emerging markets has increased, we must remember that portion of our increased exports to these new markets is really re-exported to the US.
Thus, as economic activity slows in the US, our exports would possibly show a decline also. One significant mitigant, however, is if, indeed, as expected by many analysts, the domestic demand in emerging markets holds up. This situation could result in the country maintaining or even increasing the level of our exports to these markets. Such could thus prop up the overall exports.