Information that could narrow this range was not readily available, but the Central Bank began to assemble the necessary information through the PCAR process and from NAMA. Gradually the range of uncertainty  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  narrowed, especially with the last of the haircuts on the lumpy NAMA purchases.
The important point is not just that the best estimate of the losses increased, but that the range of uncertainty increased at first and has narrowed, but has more narrowing to do. (Let me quickly show a sequence of slides – Annex 2 – which illustrate schematically how the level of uncertainty regarding future loan losses evolved over the past few years.)