So, somewhat paradoxically, we are in a situation in which the baseline economic outlook remains benign, and many measurable risks remain low or are even receding, while uncertainty, i.e., those risks that cannot be readily quantified, timed, priced or hedged in the markets, may in fact be on the rise.
Outlook and risks The pandemic has created a fog of uncertainty, and this has greatly complicated our ability to generate a clear outlook for growth and inflation. The course of the coronavirus is the biggest source of uncertainty. Beyond that, we don’t know how global trade and supply chains will evolve, or what will happen with domestic supply and demand.