Fourth, the generally benign behavior that international financial markets have displayed in recent months could swiftly be disrupted by a number of factors. The latter include a reassessment of the economic outlook by global  2  investors as a result of policy surprises, economic difficulties in key emerging market economies and geopolitical conflicts, among others.
Some of these trends have already been in place since the Great Financial Crisis and its aftermath. I am mostly referring to the drop in the natural rate of interest1 and to the subdued inflation dynamics. These trends are due to structural changes in macroeconomic relationships and imply a need both to reassess theoretical frameworks and to review the monetary policy strategy and tools.