If these days were to be used for production purposes on the customary scale, GDP could grow by between 1½% and 2% although at present the lower bound of the range seems more likely. That, however, would mean that the significant output gap which has already occurred would not be reduced on an annual average.
The improved cyclical outlook must not blind us to the prevailing risks. In view of the German economy’s considerable dependence on the global economic situation, it is particularly susceptible to external shock. The US current account deficit is just as unsustainable in the long term as the public budget deficits in some industrial countries.