At the same time we have to take into account that the oil price has undergone further increases since September. In my view, the rising price of oil is not just a reflection of the good shape of the world economy. It is also due to a shortage of supply. The consequences for each economy depend on the oil intensity.
Production in developing countries and emerging markets is more oil-intensive than in the industrialised countries. Oil intensity in the industrialised countries has declined since the 1980s but has probably increased in the emerging market economies. Although the effects are difficult to quantify, we at the Bundesbank assume that the increase in the price of oil will dampen world economic growth.