Indeed, unlike in the historical patterns, there is not a symmetrical, but often a skewed distribution, which means that a deviation from the central forecast to one side is more likely than to the other side. Technically speaking, in such a case, the single most likely outcome – the point forecast or mode – deviates from the expected average outcome – the mean forecast.
Violence and political instability has clearly been an element driving an upward spiral in oil prices, but actual supplies and new sources and technologies have not produced the expected correction.