For example, productivity growth is a key determinant of the neutral rate, and while most forecasters  22  For a closer look at the FOMC’s policy actions in 2016 and their relationship to previous forecasts and subsequent changes in economic conditions, see Nechio and Rudebusch (2016).
- 17 expect productivity growth to pick up from its recent unusually slow pace, the timing of such a pickup is highly uncertain. Indeed, there is little consensus among researchers about the causes of the recent slowdown in productivity growth that has occurred both at home and abroad.