ECB staff analysis suggests that, as a result, a supply-induced increase in oil prices today causes global industrial production to contract by only around half as much as it did during the 1990s and 2000s.
Chart 9 b Global economy more resilient to oil price shocks Response of global industrial production to oil supply shocks (impulse responses to shock after 48 months; median and 15th and 85th percentiles, percentage points)  Sources: IEA, FRED and ECB staff calculations. Notes: The response is estimated using a SVAR with sign restrictions.