After revision, real GDP growth for fiscal 2003 may reach close to 2.7 percent, which is the highest among the nine Board members' forecasts in the Outlook Report published in October. One of the reasons why private forecasts for fiscal 2004 are more pessimistic than the Bank's forecast is that they anticipate inventory adjustment or a slowdown in business fixed investment.
As I mentioned, the current recovery is fairly robust thanks to the favorable impact of the cyclical upturn in inventory and fixed investment. In fact, the more than 10 percent annualized rate of increase in exports during the July-September quarter is supporting the growth of industrial production.