In the Update’s estimates, primary expenditure is forecast to remain basically stable, compared to growth of 1.8 per cent in nominal output. The ratio of taxes and social security contributions to GDP is expected to fall by 0.7 points of GDP.
The structural deficit, net of the effects of the business cycle and temporary measures, is forecast instead to increase by half a percentage point of GDP compared to 2015, reaching 1.2 per cent in the policy scenario.