The ongoing global spike in inflation, due to, among other things, persistently high energy and food prices, remains an important risk. Looking ahead, global price movements will strongly depend on how quickly leading central banks respond to inflation challenges. Any delays will push up external price pressures.
Conversely, a rapid tightening of monetary policies by leading central banks poses the risk of there being more substantial capital outflows from emerging markets. The baseline scenario of the NBU’s forecast assumes that the impact of the pandemic on the Ukrainian economy will continue to decrease.