Moreover, U.S. financial conditions remain supportive of growth in economic activity and employment. As always, considerable uncertainty surrounds this baseline economic outlook. At present, one prominent risk is that adverse developments abroad, such as heightened geopolitical tensions or an intensification of financial stresses in emerging market economies, could BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  undermine confidence in the global economic recovery.
Another risk – domestic in origin – is that the recent flattening out in housing activity could prove more protracted than currently expected rather than resuming its earlier pace of recovery. Both of these elements of uncertainty will bear close observation.