As regards oil, it is clear geopolitical uncertainties also contribute to rising prices. However one should not overdramatise either.The solidity of the euro exchange rate has limited rising oilbills for us.
For the past few years, the situation has taken hold in which the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI has been positive, with the economy continuing on an expanding trend and the output gap having been substantially positive. The output gap is basically expected to remain substantially positive.