In 2020, economic output will thus be nearly € billion lower than it would be without this demographic effect. According to estimates by the OECD in its report entitled “Looking to 2060”, Germany will post the second slowest growth of all 42 countries in the study by 2030, and the slowest growth by 2060 – mainly owing to demographic trends.
The prospects for per capita growth, which is a crucial driver of prosperity, look somewhat better because of the falling population. However, here too, Germany will only occupy a mid-table position in Europe, according to the OECD. What is more, weak economic growth will also have a negative impact on, for instance, the country’s innovation and adjustment capacities.