Among other factors, the fires in Northern Alberta, which have been costly for many, represent a sharp, but temporary, hit to the economy.
We expect to see GDP fall by 1 per cent at annual rates in the second quarter, and then grow by 3.5 per cent in the third quarter as oil production resumes, rebuilding around Fort McMurray begins and the new Canada Child Benefit lifts consumption. In fact, fiscal measures, including infrastructure spending, provide an important support to growth over the forecast horizon.