A combination of slowing final sales and rising inventory investment in the fourth quarter would be a natural prelude to a slowing in the pace of production immediately ahead. The spillover effects from the Asian turmoil should further slow growth over 1998.
It's possible that it has, but by no means certain. This leaves monetary policymakers with the difficult job of watching all the signs, weighing the risks and making a new judgment call every few weeks. At the moment, there seems to be little risk of the economy slowing down too much in the near term and sliding into recession.