Of course, the exact timing is important, the last interest rate change was in late 2008, whereas the last hike was a decade ago (June 2006). However, unless you are a bond trader, the scale and length of the tightening cycle matter more.
Here are some stylised facts from previous tightening cycles in the US (twelve cycles during the last 50 years): •  the average tightening cycle duration is less than 2 years, although in the last twenty years the average duration is about one year;  •  the average increase in the base interest rate is 3 percentage points;  •  a recession follows about three years following the Fed’s decision to raises rates for the first time in years.