The sovereign debt crisis meant that the cyclical recovery took much longer to manifest itself: real GDP only returned to its pre-crisis peak level in 2015 but the economic expansion has been robust and broad-based since and looks set to continue. The unemployment rate is on a downward path, although it has not yet reached its pre-crisis level.
Despite these favourable developments, inflationary pressures remain weak. Underlying inflation has been basically flat at 1 % over the last 5 years – far from our objective of below but close to 2 % - and wage growth does not yet show convincing upward momentum. Looking forward, underlying inflation is projected to only gradually rise to 1.8 % in 2020.