A payments conference hosted by the Federal Reserve in 2003 found that businesses face organizational and technical challenges in moving to electronics. For example, businesses may need to make significant investments in their back-office payment, billing, and accounting systems before they can use electronic payments more frequently.
However this forecast is only as good as the assumptions we have put in to the model. The sensitivity of the forecast to oil price and exchange rate changes are well known, and any unexpected changes in these or other variables will cause the forecast to change. So there can be no guarantee that the forecast will be the same next time.