My expectation is based mainly on data that showed weakening spending in recent months, and other data that imply moderating spending, including a sizable decline in April in consumer sentiment, as measured by the initial estimate of the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
While my base case forecast for the U.S. economy is not a recession, I expect spending and GDP growth to remain quite slow over the rest of 2023, due to continued tight financial conditions, low consumer sentiment, and a decline in household savings that had built up after the onset of the pandemic.