Note also that the latest growth outlook still assumes a fairly benign, and frankly implausibly optimistic, growth path for China, the USA and Europe. As noted earlier, it is impossible to get a firm grip on the near-term prospects while the contagion unleashed in Thailand in July of 1998 is still working its way around the globe.
All going well, China, the USA and Europe will be able to sustain their positive growth paths, and will provide the pillars around which the affected countries can resume their growth. I think that is still the most likely scenario. But other, realistic, and much less comforting, scenarios can be conjured up with disturbing ease.