While the high annual growth rate of M3 still partly reflects the portfolio shifts to liquid positions which occurred last autumn, and there was some normalisation in the development of M3 in early 2002, this trend towards moderation has recently been interrupted. In addition, annual rates of growth of loans to the private sector have stabilised over recent months.
As regards the second pillar, our expectations for a gradual recovery in real GDP growth in the euro area have been confirmed by Eurostat’s recently published first estimates for real GDP growth. These preliminary estimates show an improvement of quarter-on-quarter growth rates from –0.3% in the last quarter of 2001 to moderately positive rates in the first quarter of this year.