This indicates the enormous degree of uncertainty even among institutions that put a lot of effort into forecasting the oil price. We can take advice from the market, but whose advice do we take in this instance? The average or ‘consensus’ is not necessarily superior to any of these individual forecasts.
Some central banks simply look at the oil futures prices, rather than trying to predict the impossible. But as we all know, the futures curve shifts continuously as current prices change. All it tells us is what today’s price is, and what the implied price is over the next few months on the basis of a risk-free interest rate and, storage costs.