To what extent this represents a genuinely lower trend, as opposed to noise, is, as always, difficult to say. There would appear to be some association between consumer caution, reports of widespread discounting in the retail sector and the very high exchange rate.
If that connection is in operation then the question arises as to how long such cautious behaviour might continue – and this is one of the uncertainties to which we point in the section on “risks” in the Outlook chapter of the Statement. There are of course other uncertainties as well.