Regions will increasingly have to source their critical inputs from a smaller pool of potential suppliers that are deemed reliable and in line with their shared strategic interests. And they will need to do so in the context of a green transition that is making certain raw materials – like copper, cobalt and nickel – increasingly more important than others.
A new geopolitical race to secure access to resources is therefore likely. Achieving greater security will not come without costs, and this is why the third shift – from globalisation to regionalisation – is also likely to gather pace. The price of increased security could in principle take the form of lower international risk-sharing and higher transitional costs.