As for the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI; excluding fresh food), which has been positive since November 2005, we estimate that this will gradually rise to around the middle of the range between zero and 1 percent in fiscal 2006 and to slightly below 1 percent in fiscal 2007. III.
Upside and downside risks to the outlook for economic activity In the above sections, I have outlined the core elements of the most likely projection for economic activity and prices. However, the economy constantly faces various risks and it should be noted that, should particular risks materialize, economic activity and prices may deviate from this projection.