While small forecast changes get a lot of attention, the far more important question is whether we have recognised and understood the big forces at work. Even if we cannot predict the outcomes with great accuracy, an understanding of these forces ought to help us get policy responses roughly right.
And that, in the real world, is probably about as much as we dare hope. Right now the big forces include: •  for Australia, the closing chapters of a very large and long-running terms of trade event, with all that means in terms of economic adjustment.