That figure could still be within most analysts’ current range of estimates, not least because it did prove possible in the end to achieve a substantial burden-sharing with the subordinated debt-holders as the guarantee on those liabilities expired.
(As is well known, partner pressure inhibited burden-sharing with the holders of senior Anglo Irish / IBRC debt even after the guarantee ran out leaving more than € billion unguaranteed. This is a point which needs to be borne in mind by those who focus too exclusively on the famous night of the guarantee.