When output growth outpaces the growth of potential, the unemployment rate declines. And the unemployment rate has declined almost 0.4 percentage points a year for the past four years. This translates into excess demand growth of 0.75 to 1 percentage point relative to potential supply growth.
The second insight - and enduring old economy wisdom - is that a proximate source of changes in inflation is an imbalance between the levels of aggregate supply and aggregate demand. This can be expressed as an imbalance between actual and potential output or as a divergence of the unemployment rate from the NAIRU.