This time, oil prices have already been rising since the end of last year, and it is said that the market has already factored in, to a large extent, an early ending scenario of any war. Of course, we should not be too optimistic. To be sure, we are not certain to what extent stock prices have indeed factored in a war scenario.
Another concern is that the sentiment of economic agents  BIS Review 9/2003  1  might deteriorate depending on war developments. What worries us is that consumer sentiment indicators in the United States have been declining since the middle of last year. More caution would be necessary for global economic prospects if a war with Iraq becomes prolonged or spreads.