One of the more problematic features of the current cycle is its over-reliance on consumers, while business investment and trade continue to disappoint. • Foreign exchange markets 3 / 15  BIS central bankers' speeches  I turn to foreign exchange (FX) prospects by end-year.
The euro against the dollar Political developments on both sides of the little pond seem to be the major driver of FX price developments (US Presidential elections, referendums-national elections in Europe). As a result, the dollar’s strength is expected to be limited and the euro against the dollar to move in a tight range of 1.06–1.16 by year-end.