BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  increase from 38 percent to 50 percent. 14 The October and November non-farm payroll reports came in strong and above expectations, raising that probability by the time of the December meeting to about 90 percent. In other words, the Committee used modest time-based guidance to set the stage and then let incoming data do the heavy lifting.
In the statement released after the FOMC’s most recent meeting in January, the Committee said that, in evaluating future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, it would “assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.” 15 15 This language shows that the Committee has moved away from the time-based guidance of the crisis years.