Looking forward, however, the negative effect of these two factors on exports will gradually dissipate. Tail risks have largely receded, allowing the tourist industry to rebound significantly in 2013 and in 2014. Also, financial conditions improve as markets open up to Greece and corporates gain access to funding and trade credit.
This will allow investment to recover, which, in turn, will allow the country to broaden its export base and capitalize on its improved competitiveness. Challenges and risks, looking forward However, challenges remain. The cumulative decline in real GDP since the start of the crisis amounts to 25% and unemployment in 2014:Q1 stands at 27.8% with the long-term unemployed accounting for over 70%.