But to date, businesses appear to be keeping tight control on inventories, and a reasonable assumption is that we will see a temporary lift to the economy in coming months. The pace of activity should continue to improve next year, with an important part of the gains coming from the abatement of the forces currently restraining activity.
That said, a number of factors suggest that the recovery could be relatively moderate. I've already mentioned my expectation that financial market functioning and risk appetites will continue to improve, but that recuperation will require some time.