Considerable losses in purchasing power and concerns about high gas bills have cast a further shadow over their propensity to spend. All in all, economic output could fall significantly and across the board in the fourth quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023. If this were to happen, we would be faced with a recession. Its scale would depend on many uncertain factors.
These include households' gas consumption, temperatures and the effect of policy measures. One thing is for sure: gas shortages would amplify downward forces. The European Commission is expecting the German economy to shrink next year, with a decline of 0.6% anticipated by experts. Projecting growth of -0.2%, the German Council of Experts is somewhat more optimistic.