From a level of $ per barrel at the end of 2003, the spot price of West Texas intermediate crude oil has risen to a range of $ to $ per barrel this year. This doubling of the nominal price of crude oil represents a significant shock to the economy.
Next to this is modeling climate change trends and Nat Cat. 2  I do agree that this comes with a challenge. We cannot predict the future. However, we cannot and must not depend only on historical data to predict the future, certainly when the changes we are seeing are without precedent.