BIS Review 116/2008  7  On the other hand, however, strong safe haven effects in nominal AAA-rated government bonds may have caused the term premiums of the respective securities to shift, resulting in a downwards distortion of the BEIR curve.
It is consequently not immediately clear whether long-term inflation expectations based on swaps or long-term inflation expectations based on the BEIR curve are currently more reliable. Our reaction to this finding has been to increase the weight we attach to survey-based indicators of long-term inflation expectations – although, of course, they too have disadvantages.