It is hard enough to make judgements about the risks that the economy faces, let alone forecasting exactly when those risks might actually materialise. This makes it very difficult to incorporate the future realisation of risks into central forecasts. While we might have a reasonable degree of confidence that some particular risk will materialise at some point, predicting that point is extremely hard.
These include geopolitical influence, political stability and the enforcement of the rule of law, as well as good political and economic governance. Only large economies generating meaningful network externalities possess international currencies. They must also be economies with deep, efficient and open financial markets where it is possible to invest without the risk of incurring large transaction costs or capital losses.