According to the baseline scenario on the left-hand side of the chart, the timing of recovery for real GDP growth rates is expected to differ across regions, depending on the timing and severity of the spread of COVID-19 as well as the magnitude of the impact public health measures have on economic activity.
In China, where the spread of the disease was contained at an early stage, the real GDP growth rate fell sharply for the January-March quarter, but returned to its pre-pandemic level for the April-June quarter, as projected. The scenario for advanced economies is quite different. Real GDP growth rates fell considerably -- more so than in China -- for the April-June quarter.