On this basis, it expects that the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) is likely to increase gradually toward 2 percent, mainly on the back of the output gap remaining positive and inflation expectations rising, despite the CPI inflation rate being affected by such factors as the decline in crude oil prices for the time being (Chart 10).
In the latest Outlook Report, it is projected that the year-on-year rates of  6  change in the CPI excluding fresh food will be 0.7 percent for fiscal 2019, 1.1 percent for fiscal 2020, and 1.5 percent for fiscal 2021.