The weaknesses in the global economy will make it much harder to sustain strong export growth and to mobilise foreign savings to fund large trade deficits. To adjust to this more difficult external environment, African economies will have to live with smaller trade deficits, which implies constraining the growth of consumption and prioritising policies which can support sustainable export growth.
Stable and undervalued real exchange rates, if sustained over the long term, can help to promote investment in export industries. Opportunities to expand intraregional trade will only be realised if the ubiquitous non tariff barriers are removed. Finally, prioritising the modernisation of smallholder agriculture can support exports and reduce Africa’s large trade deficit in agricultural products. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches