It is widely expected that we will continue to make progress controlling the virus, reducing the need for social distancing, but variants of the virus, slow take-up of vaccinations, or both could slow progress. Additional fiscal support is likely to provide a significant boost to spending when vaccinations are sufficiently widespread to support a full reopening of in-person services.
Various measures of financial conditions are broadly accommodative relative to historical levels and should remain so. The labor market should strengthen, perhaps significantly, as the virus recedes, social distancing comes to an end, and the service sector springs back to life.