Forecasting the direction or pace of technological change has proved to be especially precarious over the generations, even for relatively mature industries. While uncertainty is inherent in any creative process, Nathan Rosenberg of Stanford suggests that even after an innovation’s technical feasibility has been clearly established, its ultimate effect on society is often highly unpredictable. He notes at least two sources of this uncertainty.
First, the range of applications for a new technology may not be immediately apparent. For instance, Alexander Graham Bell initially viewed the telephone as solely a business instrument -- merely an enhancement of the telegraph -- for use in transmitting very specific messages, such as the terms of a contract.