There are also significant geopolitical risks that could increase the risk aversion of international investors. Other geopolitical risks relate to a possible exacerbation of the refugee crisis. 4.1 Medium- to long-term challenges In addition to the above domestic and external risks to the recovery, there are also some medium- to long-term challenges that need to be addressed in order to strengthen the positive outlook.
In particular: Unemployment remains very high, while the new jobs created largely involve low-pay, parttime or intermittent employment. At the same time, the tax burden on dependent and independent employment has increased and social benefits continue to decline. As a result, household consumption is likely to weaken or remain subdued for a long time.