Turning now to the second pillar, recent data releases have been providing further evidence on the improvement of economic conditions in the euro area. This has in turn increased the likelihood that the economic cycle reached a trough at the end of last year.
BIS Review 20/2002  1  Starting with external developments, there are indications of a gradual firming of economic activity, which should in turn lead to a gradual strengthening of the external demand for euro area products and services. These developments certainly reinforce the expectation of an upturn in economic activity in the euro area in 2002.