Remember that, on average, we expect exports to grow by about 7–8 per cent each year. So over the six quarters to the end of 2002, export volumes had fallen by some 12–13 per cent relative to the level they would have reached had they grown at trend rates. That's 3 per cent of GDP.
Balance of Payments Per cent  Change in Exports Change in Imports Real trade balance (per cent of GDP) Terms of trade – per cent – per cent of GDP Trade balance (per cent of GDP) Current account balance (per cent of GDP)  Jun quarter 2001 – Dec quarter 2002  Annual average growth over 1990s  Change relative to trend by Dec 2002  –2½ 19 –4.6  7.6 7.7  –12½ 7½  2.5 0.7 –3.9 –3.8  Imports, on the other hand, have risen relatively rapidly, as domestic demand has risen at a pretty robust pace over the period in question.