And expectations that policy tightening would remain gradual over the near-term have not stopped long-term rates from fluctuating substantially in response to incoming data; the movements of future or forward rates out the yield curve after surprises in data have been at least as large since 2003 as they were before. That is not to say that we have nothing to worry about.
3  For example, see Rafael Di Tella, Robert J. MacCulloch, and Andrew J. Oswald (2001), “Preferences over Inflation and Unemployment: Evidence from Surveys of Happiness,” American Economic Review, vol. 91 (March), pp. 335–41; and Justin Wolfers (2003), “Is Business Cycle Volatility Costly? Evidence from Surveys of Subjective Well-Being,” International Finance, vol. 6 (Spring), pp. 1–26. 2  BIS Review 64/2010  high percentage.