Ireland’s unemployment rate is now one of the highest in the OECD and over half of the jobless have been unemployed for over twelve months. Construction has accounted for close to half of the jobs lost. Large losses have also occurred in manufacturing and labour intensive services such as retail, hotels and restaurants. Younger workers without tertiary qualifications have been hardest hit.
At the same time, if world crude oil prices stabilize, we expect that the rate of increase in the total CPI will gradually come down and eventually converge with our core measure of inflation. But, as I said before, there are a number of uncertainties attached to this projection. The most important uncertainties revolve around future developments in the US economy.