Experience shows that all of these factors play a role and that their relative importance differs. What conclusions can be drawn from observing trends in bank lending over time? Is direct inference possible with regard to the intended and unintended consequences of reforms? Prima facie, aggregate time trends and averages provide only limited answers to these questions.
In the extreme, basing policy decisions on such statistics alone can aggravate the situation. For example, regulations may be relaxed because of their alleged impact on credit supply, even if they did not play a major role in the contraction of credit in the first place.