In addition to “high-severity-low-probability” events, there will always be true “black swans” that appear completely unexpectedly and with dire consequences. Such events are the real challenges for risk management and financial regulation. They are intractable and cannot be managed within the scope of statistical models because they are beyond all expectations. They lurk in the dark, and we are simply unable to see them.
The mitigating factors are actions taken by the Reserve Bank to dampen consumption demand, Government's fiscal consolidation plans in the SDP, development of a National Exports Strategy to increase Fiji's exports and consideration of alternative sources of energy and import substitution for relevant and viable areas. We are aware of what we need to do.