The (relatively) continuous rise in energy prices since 2003 has been a surprise to me and to most others, as least as best as I can gauge by looking at prices that have been embedded in futures contracts over this period. These contracts currently suggest that the price of oil will flatten out in the period ahead.
Had this been a more general story across the economy, we would have witnessed a significant rise in overall inflation, necessitating a much more active tightening of monetary policy.